Transitioning to
Carbon Neutrality by 2050:
A Scenario-Based Analysis

September 2022

Copyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Table of Contents
Title
1.0

Slide No.

Overview

1.1

Overview of Study

・・・4

1.2

Summary of Study Findings

・・・5

2.0

Details of Study

2.1

Details of Study (Summary)

・・・10

2.2

Scenario Parameters: Sources Used

・・・11

2.3

Computational Models

・・・12

2.4

New-Vehicle Market Shares: Assumptions

・・・13

2.5

In-Use Vehicle Fleets: Growth Projections

・・・14

2.6

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Data: Assumptions

・・・15

2.7

Projected Increases in Passenger Car
Fuel/Energy Efficiency by 2050

・・・16

2.8

Energy Mix Projections (Global)

・・・17

2.9

Fuel Mix and CNF Supply: Assumptions

・・・18

3.0

Details of Study Findings, By Country/Region

3.1

Japan

・・・20

3.2

The ASEAN Region

・・・31

For details of study findings for other countries/regions, click on the links provided to access this document’s annexes.

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1.0 Overview

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1.1 Overview of Study
1. Purpose of using scenarios
To understand, based on quantitative assessments, possible pathways to be
pursued towards carbon neutrality in automotive transport by 2050.
2. Data applied
New-vehicle sales data, in-use vehicle fleet data, energy/fuel mix data, vehicle
fuel efficiency data, vehicle kilometers travelled annually, etc.
3. Scenario parameters and study findings (partial)
BEV/FCEV Share of New Passenger Vehicle Sales

2050 Projected
CNF Share in
Automotive Fuel Mix

2050 Scenario
Designation & Definition

Worldwide

Advanced
economies

Emerging
economies

Scenario 0 BAU1

BAU

←

←

←

Scenario 1 CNF:
Wide use of CNF

40％

50%

25%

30% approx.

Scenario 2 BEV75: Wideelectrified vehicle adoption

75％

100%

50%

20% approx.

Scenario 3 NZE:
100% BEVs/FCEVs(IEA NZE2 scenario)

100％

100%

100%

7%
(biofuel only)[2020 FC*-Based]

1 BAU: “Business as usual” 2 IEA: International Energy Agency; NZE: “Net Zero Emissions by 2050”*FC: Fuel consumption
Advanced economies: Japan; North America; Europe; etc.; Emerging economies: India; ASEAN; Africa; etc.

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1.2 Summary of Study Findings
Context

CO2 Emission Levels in 2050

Worldwide• Findings show that the study’s three scenarios (excluding the BAU scenario) demonstrate thepotential for global CO2 emissions reduction in automotive transport to be in line with the
IPCC’s 2050 1.5oC climate scenarios.
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• The IEA’s NZE scenario is premised on one pathway towards carbon neutrality, but the JAMA study
confirms that there are other pathways, comprising a wide variety of electrified vehicles including
HEVs and PHEVs and the use of carbon-neutral fuel (CNF).

Advanced
economies• The study’s three scenarios demonstrate the potential in advanced economies for carbon neutrality
in automotive transport by 2050.
• To that end, however, in addition to decarbonized electricity, the supply of carbon-neutral fuels
for in-use vehicle fleets will be necessary.

Emerging
economies• In many emerging economies, vehicle sales volumes are expected to rise significantly.
• If the amount of CNF in the automotive fuel mix in 2050 can be increased to a level equivalent to 40%(approx.) of global automotive fuel consumption in 2020, it will be possible for CO2 emissions inemerging economies to be in line with the IPCC’s 1.5<2oC climate scenarios for 2050.

JAMA member companies, together with their global stakeholders, will
make maximum efforts towards carbon neutrality by 2050 by developing
technologies to further reduce automotive CO2 emissions so that they canprovide optimal choices for consumers in countries/regions worldwide.

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CO2 Emissions Worldwide 2020-2050, by Scenario（KtCO2）In all three scenarios, CO2 emissions worldwide are in line with
the IPCC’s 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios.
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CO2 Emissions in Advanced Economies 2020-2050, by Scenario（KtCO2）

Advanced economies EuropeJapan

All scenarios (excluding the BAU scenario) demonstrate the potential inadvanced economies for carbon neutrality in automotive transport by 2050.
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CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economies 2020-2050, by Scenario
In many emerging economies, vehicle sales volumes and BAU emissions
are expected to rise significantly.
（KtCO2）

ASEAN

IPCC1.5：-42%～-68%

India

IPCC2.0：-14%～-44%

Note: The CNF+ scenario assumes that CNF supply is 1.25 times greater than in the CNF scenario, has a 40% (approx.) instead of 30% share (approx.) in the fuelmix and that most of the increase will be supplied to Africa, the Middle East, India, and ASEAN where the supply of decarbonized energy is a major challenge.

A 1.25 increase in carbon-neutral fuel supply compared to the CNF scenario will make it possible forCO2 emissions in emerging economies to be in line with the IPCC’s 1.5<20C scenarios for 2050.
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2.0 Details of Study

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2.1 Details of Study (Summary)
Scenario designation& definition1

Abbreviation
used in study

0-“Business as usual”

BAU

Source: IEEJ Outlook 2021*

CNF• The share of BEVs/FCEVs in new passenger car sales
reaches 50% in advanced economies and about 30% in
emerging economies.
• CNF is in wide use (share in fuel mix: 30% approx.).

BEV75• The share of BEVs/FCEVs in new passenger car sales
reaches 100% in advanced economies and 50% in
emerging economies (75% worldwide).
• Growing use of CNF (share in fuel mix: 20% approx.)

NZE• Based on IEA’s backcasting “Net Zero Emissions by2050”3 scenario for achieving the 1.50C climate goal
• The share of BEVs/FCEVs in global new vehicle sales
reaches 100%.
• Limited use of CNF (biofuels only, share in fuel mix: 7%)

1-Wide use of carbonneutral fuel (CNF)2

2-Wide adoption ofelectrified vehicles

3-100% BEVs/FCEVs

Basic assumptions (2050)* IEEJ: Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1 Powertrain configurations and CNF use rates in each scenario are assumptions made for study purposes; they do not
represent auto industry commitments. The real-world feasibility of each scenario depends greatly on the energy policy,
industrial policy, and consumer choices in individual countries.
2 CNF here means biofuels and synthetic fuels that will become carbon-neutral by 2050. CNF shares “in fuel mix” were
calculated on the basis of total automotive fuel consumption in 2020.
3 “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” was published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in May 2021. This scenario is not aforecast-based analysis as it does not sufficiently take into account costs involved and investments required.
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2.2 Scenario Parameters: Sources Used
Vehicle Parameters
Scenario1

CNF Parameters
Energy Mix

Fuel efficiency

Powertrain mix

BiofuelSynthetic fuel

BAU

JAMA calculations

IEEJ_REF1IEEJ_REF1IEEJ_REF1IEEJ_REF1

CNF↑

IEEJ_CCE1

IEEJ_CCE1＋α

IEEJ_ATS1

BEV75

↑

↑

↑

↑

IEEJ_ATS1

NZE

↑

↑

IEA_NZE2－IEEJ_ATS1

JAMA calculations

Source for the three IEEJ scenarios referred to here: IEEJ Outlook 2021, published in 2020 by the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan-IEEJ_REF (Reference Scenario): Takes into account real-world trends in technological advances and current energy policies,
excluding any significant low-carbon measures.

-IEEJ_ATS (Advanced Technologies Scenario): Assumes introduction of ambitious policies to address energy security andclimate change issues with maximum penetration of low-carbon technologies.
-IEEJ_CCE（Circular Carbon Economy Scenario): In addition to the assumptions introduced in the ATS scenario, the CCE
scenario assumes optimized adoption of 4R (“reduce, reuse, recycle, remove”) technologies to decarbonize fossil fuel use.
2 “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” was published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in May 2021.

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2.3 Computational Models
Macroeconomic
modelInteractions

Energy demandmodel

Key elements in the macroeconomic model:Interactions

Automotivemodel

Calculation Methodology for Automotive Model

1. World economic growth rate (2.5% per year)
Economic growth rates of individual countries, especiallyin emerging economies in Asia and Africa, were assumed
by IEEJ based on the economic development plans ofnational governments and the forecasts of think tanks
and other organizations, with the expectation that theeconomic downturn resulting from the COVID-19
pandemic will cease at an early stage.
2. Population projection (9.7 billion people by 2050)
IEEJ refers to the United Nations’ "World Population
Prospects" and other sources, and assumes that
population growth will continue owing to developments
in medical technology and improvements in food andsanitary conditions, while taking into account theincreasing downward pressure on the population caused
by COVID-19 and the resulting economic stagnation.

Socioeconomic
Situation

Fuel types:
Petroleum, electricity, hydrogen, CNG, biofuel, synthetic fuelFigures for future fuel consumption (CO2 emissions) were calculated using IEEJ’s macroeconomic
model and energy demand model reflecting JAMA’s powertrain mix estimates.
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2.4 New-Vehicle Market Shares: Assumptions
Vehicle Type

Assumptions•

Passenger
Cars

Commercial
VehiclesMotorcycles

•

•
•
•

•

Each scenario makes assumptions concerning the powertrain mix inadvanced economies and emerging economies.
The NZE scenario assumes that BEVs/FCEVs will be introduced inemerging economies at the same pace as in advanced economies. The
other scenarios, however, assume that BEVs/FCEVs will be introduced inemerging economies at almost half the pace compared to advanced
economies.
Includes mini commercial vehicles.
The powertrain mix for both advanced economies and emerging
economies is based on actual shipment volume ratios in Japan.
The timing of BEV/FCEV introduction in this segment is assumed to be 510 years later than in the passenger car segment.
Powertrain mix figures are per IEEJ’s Advanced Technologies Scenario.

Powertrain mix figures for passenger cars and commercial vehicles are JAMA estimates.
Powertrain mix figures for motorcycles are per an IEEJ scenario.
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2.5 In-Use Vehicle Fleets: Growth Projections
In-use vehicle fleet (excluding
motorcycles) growth projections

In-use passenger car fleet
growth projections
1,000

Europe

500

Japan
400

Other Europe/Eurasia
China

300

North
America

Latin America
India

200

Middle East

ASEAN

100

Asia-Pacific
Africa

0

1

10

100

Per capita GDP (x USD 1,000)

Number of in-use vehicles per 1,000 people

Number of in-use vehicles per 1,000 people

600

900
800

North
America
Japan

700
600

Europe500
400

Other Europe/Eurasia

China

Latin America

300

Middle East

200

India

ASEAN

100

Africa01Asia Pacific
10100

Per capita GDP (x USD 1,000)〇2020 ➡ ●2050

In-use passenger car fleets are projected to grow in line with income growth.
The global in-use vehicle fleet (excluding motorcycles) is projected to grow 1.7-fold,from 1.5 billion vehicles in 2020 to 2.7 billion vehicles in 2050, orfrom 199 units per 1,000 people in 2020 to 277 units per 1,000 people in 2050.
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2.6 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Data: Assumptions
Vehicle Type
Passenger
Cars

Assumptions•

See next slide.

Commercial
Vehicles•

Vehicle fuel efficiency improvement rates per country/region are as cited
in IEEJ Outlook 2021.

Motorcycles•

ICEV (internal combustion engine vehicle) and BEV (battery electricvehicle) figures are as cited in IEEJ Outlook 2021.

Figures for passenger car fuel efficiency are JAMA estimates.
Commercial vehicle and motorcycle figures are as cited in IEEJ Outlook 2021.

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2.7 Projected Increases in
Passenger Car Fuel/Energy Efficiency by 2050

Improvement rate

PHEVs

BEVs
Improvement rate

HEVs

Improvement rate

ICEVs
Improvement rate

Projected average fuel/energy efficiency improvement rates in conventional and electrified vehicles■Basis of JAMA calclulations for the 2010-2020 timeframe

About JAMA’s projections

・ICEVs/HEVs: Average fuel efficiency of 5 “top runner” models (curb weight: 1300kg±100kg)
・PHEVs: Average fuel efficiency of a few top-runner models
・BEVs: Difference in energy efficiency of top-runner model before/after full model change
Top runner: A model with the leading fuel efficiency performance in its weight category.

✓ Fuel/energy efficiency improvement rates were calculated based on the anticipatedintroduction of technological advances by the OEMs, as indicated by them in their
responses to a questionnaire submitted during a study on passenger car fuel efficiency
standards for fiscal 2030.
✓ ICEVs: Projections could be established only up to 2030; HEVs/PHEVs: Only up to 2035.
✓ BEVs: Projections could be established up to 2050.
✓ FCEVs are projected to maintain their current FE performance level (152km/kg) up to 2050.
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2.8 Energy Mix Projections (Global)
Energy mix, 2020-2050

CO2 emissions intensity（gCO2/kWh）（%）

RenewableenergyNuclear
Fossil energy

HydrogenBiomass
Fossil energy
with CCS**CCS: Carbon capture and storage
IEEJ_ATS (Advanced Technologies Scenario): Assumes introduction of ambitious policies to address energy security
and climate change issues with maximum penetration of low-carbon technologies.
[CO2 emissions intensity for Japan in 2050 was amended to less than 100 gCO2/kWh in line with government policy.]

Energy mix projections in the study scenarios were based on energy mix data in IEEJ_ATS,taking into account the energy supply situation worldwide.
(IEA_NZE does not include energy mix data by country/region.)

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2.9 Fuel Mix and CNF Supply: Assumptions
Based on IEEJ study data, the potential CNF share in the automotive fuel mix in 2050 is
estimated to be approximately 30 to 40% of total automotive fuel consumption in 2020.

Synthetic fuel supply• Taking into consideration various perspectives, JAMA also made estimates and confirmed that potential
supply volumes will be almost the same as in the IEEJ study data.

‒ The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a “2050 net zero” declaration and estimated that 449 billion liters ofsustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will be necessary by 2050.*‒ JAMA estimated synthetic fuel supply volumes by assuming 1/3 to 1/2 of the amount of SAF will be produced by the FischerTropsch (FT) process, which yields high rates of SAF while producing gasoline and diesel as byproducts (Shulz-Flory distribution).

• Since synthetic fuels are a byproduct of sustainable aviation fuel (to be “net zero” by 2050), JAMA
confirmed that synthetic fuel carbon intensity becoming “zero” by 2050 is possible.

Biofuel supply• JAMA confirmed potential supply volumes based on data in the IEA’s “Energy Technology
Perspectives.”• With the U.S. corn ethanol industry association having confirmed that corn ethanol can be carbonneutral by 2050, JAMA confirmed that biofuel carbon intensity becoming “zero” by 2050 is possible.
*SAF estimates: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/
CNF supply volume in the CNF scenario is based on the assumption that 1/3 of the 449 billion liters of SAF will be produced by the FT process.
CNF supply volume in the CNF+ scenario is based on the assumption that 1/2 of SAF will be produced by the FT process (for a 50% increase in synthetic
fuel supply volumes and a 25% increase in total CNF supply volumes compared to the CNF scenario), consistent with IATA’s estimates. The additional
supply of CNF in the CNF+ scenario is allocated to Africa, the Middle East, India, and the ASEAN region where decarbonized energy supply poses a major
challenge.

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3.0 Details of Study Findings,
By Country/Region

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3.1 Japan

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Trends in Japan @2050
Scenario
All

CNF

BEV75

Trends in Japan

2050/2020
CO2 emissions

Market•For all vehicle types: Gradual declines in both new vehicle sales and in-use fleets.

Energy mix•

Increased supply of diversified clean energy + CCS leads to mostly decarbonization.

•

Share of electrified vehicles in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types(passenger cars, trucks, buses) is almost 100%, with about 50% of newpassenger cars being PHEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 40%.

Electrified
vehicles•Fuel mix••

More than 80% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 20% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

Electrified
vehicles••Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 70%.

Fuel mix••

More than 90% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 15% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

Electrified
vehicles••Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 90%.

•

About 80% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuels = 0%.)
Biofuel share = approx. 3% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

NZE
Fuel mix•-95% approx.

-96% approx.

-94% approx.

In all non-BAU scenarios, CO2 emission levels are close to carbon neutrality.
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New Passenger Car Sales (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

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New Commercial Vehicle Sales (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units)

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

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New Motorcycle Sales (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units)

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

24

In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units)

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units)

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (Japan)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV

ICE
BEV75

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NZE

27

Automotive Fuel Mix (Japan)
BAU（In ktoe）

CNF

Electricity
Petroleum
Biofuel
NZE

BEV75

Hydrogen
Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Energy Mix (Japan)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU
RenewableenergyNuclearBiomass
Fossil fuels

HydrogenFossilfuels+CCS（gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (Japan)（In ktCO2）

In all the scenarios, CO2 emission levels are close to carbon neutrality.
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3.2 The ASEAN Region

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Trends in ASEAN @2050
ScenarioAll

Trends in ASEAN
Market•Passenger cars and commercial vehicles: Significant increases in both new vehicle sales and inuse fleets; for motorcycles, gradual increases in new vehicle sales and in-use fleet.

Energy mix•

Share of clean energy is approximately 60%.

•

Share of electrified vehicles in new passenger car sales is about 90%,
with about 30% of new passenger cars being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 20%.

Electrified
vehicles•

CNF
Fuel mix

BEV75

2050/2020
CO2 emissions

Electrified
vehicles••About 80% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 40% of total fuel consumption in 2050.
(In CNF+ scenario, CNF share increases to approx. 52％.)•

Share of electrified vehicles in new passenger car sales is 100%, with
about 60% of new passenger cars being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 40%.

•

Fuel mix••

About 70% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 30% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

Electrified
vehicles••Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 80%.

•

About 80% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuels = 0%.)
Biofuel share = 11% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

NZE
Fuel mix•-24% approx.
(In CNF+,-42% approx.)-42% approx.

-54% approx.

CO2 emissions fall by about 24% to about 54% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in non-BAU scenarios just meet or are within the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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New Passenger Car Sales (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
PHEV
HEV

ICE

NZE

BEV75
FCEV

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New Commercial Vehicle Sales (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
PHEV
HEV

ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

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New Motorcycle Sales (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units)

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

35

In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
PHEV
HEV

ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
HEV
PHEV
ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

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In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (ASEAN)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

38

Automotive Fuel Mix (ASEAN)BAU（In ktoe）

CNF

Electricity
CNG

Biofuel

NZE

BEV75

Hydrogen
Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Energy Mix (ASEAN)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU
RenewableenergyBiomass

Nuclear
Fossilfuels+CCS

Fossil fuels（gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (ASEAN)（In ktCO2）

Note: The CNF+ scenario assumes that CNF supply is 1.25 times greater than in the CNF scenario, has a 40% (approx.) instead of 30% share (approx.) in the fuelmix and that most of the increase will be supplied to Africa, the Middle East, India, and ASEAN where the supply of decarbonized energy is a major challenge.

CO2 emissions fall by about 24% to about 54% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in non-BAU scenarios just meet or are within the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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