Annex 4 - China

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1Trends in China @2050
Scenario

AllCNF

BEV75

Trends in China

2050/2020
CO2 emissions

Market•Passenger cars and commercial vehicles: Significant increases in both new vehicle sales and in-usefleets; for motorcycles, significant declines in new vehicle sales and in-use fleet.

Energy mix•

Share of clean energy is approximately 80%.

•Share of electrified vehicles in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is almost
100%, with about 50% of new passenger cars being PHEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 40%.

Electrifiedvehicles•Fuel mix••

More than 70% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 30% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 70%.

Fuel mix••

More than 80% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share = 20% approx. of total fuel consumption in 2020.

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle
fleets is approximately 80%.

•About 80% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuels = 0%.)
Biofuel share = approx. 6% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

NZE
Fuel mix•-57% approx.

-61% approx.

-59% approx.

CO2 emissions fall by about 57% to about 61% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions are within the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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2

New Passenger Car Sales (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

NZE

BEV75
FCEV

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3

New Commercial Vehicle Sales (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

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4

New Motorcycle Sales (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

5

In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
PHEV
HEV
NGV

NZE

BEV75
FCEV

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6

In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV

ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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7

In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (China)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
ICE

BEV75

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NZE

8Automotive Fuel Mix (China)
BAU（In ktoe）

CNF
CNG
Electricity

Petroleum

Biofuel

NZE

BEV75

Hydrogen
Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

9

Energy Mix (China)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU
RenewableenergyNuclearBiomass
Fossil fuels

Fossilfuels+CCS（単位：gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (China)（In ktCO2）

CO2 emissions fall by about 57% to about 61% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions are within the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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