"Expectation for CCS toward 2050“
経済産業省 令和元年度地球温暖化・資源循環対策等に資する調査委託費（我が国のCCS導入のあり方に係る調査事業）調査報告書
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/2019FY/000145.pdf

2020/10/6
Matsuoka Toshifumi
Emeritus Professor Kyoto University
Fukada Geological InstituteExpectation for CCS toward 2050
1. Role of CCS for Global Warming
2. Target of CO2 Reduction in 2050 in Japan
3. Journey to Activation, Expansion, and At-scale CCS
4. Remaining Tasks to Solve
5. Summary2The Earth is burning!

https://natgeo.nikkeibp.co.jp/atcl/gallery/091500997/?P=8

Sources: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service/European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Hugelius, G. et al. Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA 117, 20438–20446 (2020)

CCS expects 2.5Gt CO2 Reduction in 2050

[IEA World Energy Outlook 2019]

Huge Amounts & No Time : Is this feasible?

Yes, 2.5Gt CCS in 2050 is feasible

2019

P. S. Ringrose & T. A. Meckel (2019) Maturing global CO2 storage resources on offshore
continental margins to achieve 2DS emissions reductions, Scientific Reportfrom : Ringrose RITE CCS Workshop, 23 Jan 2020

Target of CO2 Reduction in 2050 in Japan
 Contribution to 80% CO2
reduction in 2050※2

 Early dissemination of CCS to society
at 2030※2 （Consider introducing CCS
to coal-fired power plants by 2030 onthe premise of commercialization）

2050：CCS At-Scale Practical application of CCS
2030 or later：Social implementation※1
technology around 20202019：Tomakomai Demonstration PJ（Total 300,000t）
2005 : Nagaoka Project※1：第5次エネルギー基本計画（平成30年）※2：パリ協定に基づく成長戦略としての長期戦略（令和元年）8（Total 10,000t）

CCS is indispensable for 80% reduction of CO2• Study of mitigation scenarios by
RITE for 80% reduction (total1.0Gt in Japan)• Reduction costs with CCS andwithout CCS are more than
three times difference• Only domestic efforts, 80%
reduction is hard to achieve• How to realize a large CCS in2050 in Japan?
• Sites, Cost, Road Map,Regulation, Liability etc.
RITE Home pagePresent Stage toward a large CCS in Japan
Guided by the "Basic Energy Plan" of Japan, the CCS technology at 2020 is; (1) CCS
demonstration in Tomakomai, (2) Research and development for safety operation andcost reduction, (3) Survey of suitable injection sites for CCS, (4) International
collaboration is underway.
2015

Tomakomai
ProjectEPC

2016

2017

2018

2019

InjectionCO2
100,000t/year
AYears2020～Monito
ring

Acquisition ofoperating ability

A

Verification of safety technology② CO2 capture technology

Establish safety& cost-effective
operationSite Screening

Seismic exploration,
Geological model construction

Selection ofsuitable site

International
Collaboration

Multilateral efforts：
CEM、CSLF、ISO/TC265

R/DA

A

① Safety CCS operation technology

CCStechnology
for private
sectorBilateral Initiatives: Joint Studyin Saudi Arabia, USA, etc.

10

Geologic Storage Potential Survey
 1st screening (2005, RITE) using literature and geological data,

the storage potential in coastal areas was estimated at 146.1 Gt.
 To select promising CCS sites in the business case, Geological andGeophysical surveys have been conducting from 2014.

2D Seismic Exploration Survey
3Gt at 6 areas

Survey well drilling
Promising sites

遮蔽層

貯留対象層

3D Seismic Exploration Survey
7 Gt at 6 areas

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Journey to Activation, Expansion, and At-scale This expanding scenario reduces
capital investment at the initial
1stage of the CCS and mitigates
the business risk for stranded0.5assets.
 By 2030, design the institution
and concrete Road-map.

0Flying
At-Scale
Phase（拡大期）（0.2Gt）
Expansion（成長期）
At-scale（0.1Gt）
Activation（導入期）
Expansion（Several Mt）

Planning

Activation 2031～（1Mt）

2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

 From 2030 to 2050, CCS will
gradually expand while checking
economic efficiency and2technological trends for 0.1Gt
injection per year.
1.512Activation Phase 2030 (Low-hanging fruit) Overseas CCS projects are introducing for already captured CO2 in existing
CO2 sources and combining with EOR.
 In Japan as well, by considering CCS for already captured CO2 in the existing
plants (Natural gas plants, Chemical plants) and using depleted oil/gas fields,
the initial investment costs for CCS can be lowered. Find low-hanging fruit.
 However, the scale of CCS is small.

Low Cost Sink

Low Cost CO2 Source
Pressurize
CO2 captureplant

Onshore pipeline

Onshore(EOR or Decommissioning gas field)
source:GCCSI13

Expansion Phase 2035 (large-scale CO2 sources) CCS for large-scale emission sources is essential against global warming.
 Since it targets large-scale CO2 sources, Capture, Transportation, and Storage
facilities are necessary large-scale.
 Ship transport CCS in Maritime Nation.

Deployment to large
scale emission sources

Large Scale Source

Large Scale Sink

Compressor

Pipeline transport

Liquefaction／Tank※Several Mt
source:GCCSI

Compressor

Loadingfacilities

Onshore CO2 storage

Liquid CO2 ship

Ship transport
Offshore CO2 storage

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At-scale and Flying Phase 2040 (Hub & Custer) For further expansion, the cost reduction by Hub & Cluster.
 Pipeline networks connecting large-scale CO2 sources, also largetransportations to the CO2 storage hub.
 With the expansion of the scale of CCS, it is also essential to secure humanresources.
Business B

Business C
Business D

Business I

SteelPlant

Future Power
Generation

Business H

Steam Methane
reformer

Gasification Plant

RefineryBusiness K

Business J
CementPlant

CO2collection hub
Business G

Business E

Business F
Biomass

from GCCSI

Economies of scale in
CO2 transport andinjection infrastructure

Natural Gas
Plant

Fertiliser
Plant

CO2storagehub
Multiple counterparties
reducescross-chainrisk and delivers higher
utilization of assets

Offshore CO2Storage

Business L

Onshore CO2Storage

CO2 Storage Hub

CO2 Source HubBusiness A15

Remaining Tasks to Solve• How to drive private sector investments?
• To design the institution of CCS, Japan needs to learn fromabroad about Government policies and roles.
 Capital support ： Government grants, etc. (USA, Canada,etc.).
 Value of CO2 reductions（Benefits of storing CO2）：Taxcredits, Emission credit, Carbon tax avoidance, etc. (USA,Canada, Norway, etc.)
 Business risk reduction : Government guarantees, Transferof long-term liability, etc. (US, Canada, Australia, etc.)

Large Scale CCS• 19 large scale CCS
facilities are operating
now. In USA many EOR
projects are running.
• Low Cost Capture• Carbon Tax :• Sleipner, Snohvit,• Emission Credit :• Quest, Illinois Industrial• Grant Support :• Gorgon

From GCCSI

2019

Summary CCS for the reduction of 2.5Gt in the world is technically andgeologically possible.
 CCS is a must for Japan to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% in 2050.
 Japan is an island country with many earthquakes, but it ispossible geologically to construct CCS sites in at-scale phase.
(Numbers that take into account existing active faults)
 The scenario of a large CCS in 2050 needs to have three phases(Activation（導入期）, Expansion（成長期）, and At-scale（拡大期）),
and gradually expanded CCS amounts and mature Japanese CCS
technology.
 However, there are still many issues to be solved to attract private
investment. Starting widespread public debate is argent.

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