東北地域災害科学研究

11第57巻（2021）

㜿㈡㔝ᕝୖὶᇦࡢ⼥㞷ฟỈ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚ 㸨᪥ᮏ኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔ᕤᏛ◊✲⛉ ⚄ᡞ ᬛᚿ᪥ᮏ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊 ᮅᒸ Ⰻᾈ1.

ࡣࡌࡵ࡟᪥ᮏࡣᅜᅵࡢ 50%ࡀ㇦㞷ᆅᖏ࡟ᣦᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㇦㞷ᆅᖏ࡜ࡣࠕ㇦㞷ᆅᖏᑐ⟇≉ูᥐ⨨ἲࠖ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡁ
ᅜᅵ஺㏻኱⮧㸪⥲ົ኱⮧ཬࡧ㎰ᯘ኱⮧ࡀᐃࡵࡓᇶ‽ⱝỈ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪✚㞷ࡀ≉࡟⏒ࡔࡋࡃ⏘ᴗࡢⓎᒎࡀ೵⁫ⓗ࡛㸪࠿ࡘ㸪ఫẸࡢ⏕άࡢỈ‽ࡢྥୖࡀ㜼ᐖࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿከ㞷ᆅᇦࡢࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿ 1)ࠋࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ከ㞷ᆅᇦ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪᪂₲ᒣᓅᇦࡢ✚㞷ࡣ℺₅⏝Ỉ࣭⏕ά⏝Ỉ࣭ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ࣭Ỉ㭯἟ᕝ⚟ᓥ

ຊⓎ㟁࣭ᆅୗỈࡢ※࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ୗὶᇦࡢ⏘ᴗࡸ⏕άᇶ┙࡜࡞ ࡾᡃ ࡀᅜ࡟ ᜠᜨ ࢆࡶࡓ ࡽࡍ ㈗㔜࡞ ㈨※ ࡛࠶⏣ᓥ⩌㤿ࡾ㸪㔜せ࡞Ỉᩥ⌧㇟࡛࠶ࡿࠋẼೃኚື࡟㛵ࡍࡿᨻᗓ㛫ࣃࢿࣝࡢ➨஬ḟሗ࿌᭩㸦IPCC, 2014㸧ࡣ㸪21 ୡ⣖ࡢ㛫㸪ୡ⏺ᖹᆒᆅୖẼᅗ  ኱ᕝࢲ࣒㞟Ỉᇦᴫせࡢୖ᪼࡟క࠸໭༙⌫࡟࠾࠸࡚᫓Ꮨࡢ✚㞷㠃✚ࡀῶᑡࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㠀ᖖ࡟㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆሗ࿌ࡋࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪Ẽ㇟ᗇࡢᆅ⌫ணᬮ໬᝟ሗ➨ 9 ᕳ➨ 4 ❶࡛ࡣ᪥ᮏᾏഃࡢ㝆㞷㔞ࡢῶᑡഴྥࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡸ᭱῝✚㞷ࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡀ 1 ࠿᭶⛬ᗘ᪩ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪㝆㞷㔞ࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡣ 1 ࠿᭶⛬ᗘ㐜ࡃ࡞ࡿᆅᇦࡀከ࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ 3)㸪Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺Ỉᚠ⎔ࡢኚ໬ࡀỈ㈨※࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋIPCC ࡸẼ㇟ᗇࡀ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡞Ẽೃኚືࡀ㢧ᅾ໬ࡋࡓ㝿㸪⼥㞷ฟỈ࡟౫Ꮡࡍࡿὶᇦ࡛ࡣἙᕝࡢὶἣኚ໬ࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ
㜿㈡㔝ᕝὶᇦࡣỈ㈨※ࢆ⼥㞷ฟỈ࡟኱ࡁࡃ౫Ꮡࡍࡿᆅᇦ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㜿㈡㔝ᕝὶᇦࡣ඲ᅜὶᇦูᖺὶ㔞㸪ໟⶶỈຊඹ࡟඲ᅜ 2 ఩࡛࠶ࡾ 4)5)㸪ಙ⃰ᕝ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟℺₅⏝Ỉࡢ౪⤥ࢆ௓ࡋ࡚᪂₲┴ࡢ⡿⏕⏘㔞 1 ఩࡟㈉⊩ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ 6)ࠋໟⶶỈຊ࡜ࡣᡃࡀᅜࡀ᭷ࡍࡿỈ㈨※ࡢ࠺ࡕ㸪ᢏ⾡ⓗ࣭⤒῭ⓗ࡟฼⏝ྍ⬟࡞Ỉຊ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㔞ࡢࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
௨ୖࡼࡾỈ㈨※ࡢほⅬ࡛㸪㜿㈡㔝ᕝὶᇦ࡟࠾࠸࡚⼥㞷ฟỈ᫬ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃࡣ㔜せ࡜࠸࠼ࡿࠋ⼥㞷ฟỈࡢỈ㈨※ࢆᢅࡗࡓ◊✲౛࡜ࡋ࡚ Azizi and Asaoka㸦2020㸧ࡣ Hindukush–Himalaya ᒣ⬦す㒊ࡢୖὶᇦ Panjshir ᕝ㸦ὶᇦ㠃✚ 3540km2㸧ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚Ẽೃኚືࡢᙳ㡪ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓࠋ⬟Ⓩࡽ㸦2010㸧ࡣᡭྲྀᕝὶᇦ㸦ὶᇦ㠃✚ 733km2㸧ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚✚㞷ࡀ࠶ࡿሙྜࡢἙᕝὶ㔞࡜㸪✚㞷ࡀ࡞࠸࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓ㝿ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ✚㞷Ỉ㈨※㔞ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓࠋࡲ
ࡓ㸪᯽ࡽ㸦2012㸧ࡣ⼥㞷㐣⛬ࢆ Degree-hour ἲࢆ⏝࠸㸪AMeDAS ࡢᐇ✚㞷῝ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ SWE ࣔࢹࣝ࡟⤌ࡳ㎸ࡴྠ໬ࢆ⾜࠸⡿௦ᕝὶᇦ㸦ὶᇦ㠃✚ 4400km2㸧ࡢ⼥㞷ฟỈࢆ⢭ᗘⰋࡃゎᯒࡋࡓࠋ* Contribution of snow cover and snowmelt to the river discharge in the upstream area of the Agano Riverbasin by Satoshi Godo and Yoshihiro Asaoka

1260
40200

Snow depth(cm)100

Snow depth

Temperature

80
60
40200ᅗ  $0H'$6 ⏣ᓥほ30
2520
15
10
50-5-1050
Precipitation(mm/day)8030252015
1050-5-104030
2010050
Precipitation(mm/day)

Temperature

Temperature(ႏ)

Snow depth

Temperature(ႏ)

Snow depth(cm)

100

4030
20
100Ⅼࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞㸪Ẽ㸪✚㞷῝ࢹ࣮ࢱࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪୰⦋ᗘᖏࡢ㇦㞷ᇦࡢỈᚠ⎔ࡣ༑ศ࡟⌮ゎࡉࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓ㸪✚㞷ࢆỈ㈨※࡜ࡋ࡚฼⏝ࡍࡿᆅᇦ࡟࠾࠸࡚Ẽೃኚືࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᢕᥱࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡶ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᮏ◊✲ࡣ㜿㈡㔝ᕝୖὶᇦࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚Ỉᚠ⎔ࡢ⌮ゎ࡜Ẽೃኚືୗ࡟࠾ࡅࡿἙᕝὶ㔞᥎ᐃ࡟ྥࡅ㸪ศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏࠾ࡼࡧἙᕝὶ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࠋ
2.

ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ

 ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡣ⩌㤿┴㸪᪂₲┴㸪⚟ᓥ┴ࡢ୕┴࡟ࡲࡓࡀࡿ㜿㈡㔝ᕝὶᇦࡢୖὶ㒊࡟఩⨨ࡍࡿ኱ᕝࢲ࣒㞟Ỉᇦ㸦ᅗ 㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋ኱ᕝࢲ࣒ࡣ἞Ỉ࡜฼Ỉࡀ┠ⓗࡢከ┠ⓗࢲ࣒࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ᶆ㧗 361m ࠿ࡽ1848m㸪ὶᇦ㠃✚ࡣ⣙ 820km2㸪ὶᇦ࡟ࡣ኱ෆࢲ࣒࡜᪫ࢲ࣒ࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࠋ኱ᕝࢲ࣒ࡢ≉ᚩ࡜ࡋ࡚኱ᕝࢲ࣒ࡀୗụ㸪኱ෆࢲ࣒ࡀୖụ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ୗ㒓Ⓨ㟁ᡤ࡛᭷ຠⴠᕪ⣙ 400m ࢆ฼⏝ࡋ࡚㸪᭱኱ฟຊ⣙ 100 ୓ kw ࡢᥭỈᘧⓎ㟁ࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ 10)ࠋ3.

ࢹ࣮ࢱࢭࢵࢺ ᮏ◊✲࡛౑⏝ࡋࡓᶆ㧗ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸦✵㛫ศゎ⬟ 10m㸧ࡣ CGIS Japan ࠿ࡽ㸪ᅵᆅ฼⏝⣽ศ࣓ࢵࢩࣗ㸦✵㛫ศゎ⬟ 100m㸧ࡣᅜᅵᩘ್᝟ሗ࠿ࡽྲྀᚓࡋ㸪✵㛫ศゎ⬟ 200m ࡟ࣜࢧࣥࣉࣜࣥࢢࡋࡓࠋẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ఍ὠ㸪⏣ᓥ㸪㑣㡲㸪ᱠᯞᒱ㸪༡㒓㸪‫‮‬ᮏࡢᆅᇦẼ㇟ほData Acquisition System㸪 ௨ୗ AMeDAS㸧ࡢẼ㸦Automated Meteorologicalࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪㝆Ỉ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪㢼㏿ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪✚㞷῝ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆྲྀᚓࡋࡓࠋᅗ  ࡟ᮏ◊✲ࡢᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 2015 ᖺ 10 ᭶࠿ࡽ 2016 ᖺ 5 ᭶࡜ 2016 ᖺ 10᭶ࡢᑐ㇟ᆅᇦෆ࡟఩⨨ࡍࡿ AMeDAS ⏣ᓥほⅬࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞࠾ࡼࡧẼ♧ࡍࠋࡲࡓ㸪Ỉᩥ࣭Ỉ㉁ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࡼࡾ⏣ᓥほὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘࢆ᳨ドࡋࡓࠋ࠾ࡼࡧ✚㞷῝ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆᡤࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆྲྀᚓࡋ㸪ศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭

134.

◊✲ᡭἲ

 ᮏ◊✲ࡣᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢỈᚠ⎔ࢆゎᯒࡍࡿࡓࡵศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏ࡋࡓࠋࣔࢹࣝࡣ✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ὶฟࣔࢹ࡛ࣝᵓᡂࡉࢀࠋᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࢆ✵㛫ศゎ⬟ 200m ࣓ࢵࢩࣗ࡟ศ๭ࡋ࡚㸪✚㞷㔞㸪⼥㞷㔞㸪ὶฟ㔞ࢆ࣓ࢵࢩࣗẖ࡟ィ⟬ࡋࡓࠋᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫ࢆ 2015 ᖺ 10 ᭶࠿ࡽ 2016
ᖺ 5 ᭶࡜ 2016 ᖺ 10 ᭶࠿ࡽ 2017 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡢ 2 ᖺ࡜ࡋ㸪10 ᭶࡜ 11 ᭶ࡢ 2 ࢝᭶㛫ࢆᩘ್ィ⟬ࡢຓ㉮ᮇ㛫࡜ࡋࡓࠋἙᕝὶ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚ࢆᐃ㔞໬ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ࡋ࡚㸦i㸧⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜㸪⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢ㝆Ỉࡀ඲࡚㝆㞵࡛࠶ࡿ࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓ㸦ii㸧඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢᩘ್ィ⟬ࢆᐇ᪋ࡋ㸪⼥㞷ฟỈ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ホ౯ࡋࡓࠋ࡞࠾㸪2015 ᖺ࠿ࡽ 2016 ᖺࡢィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࢆ 2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇ㸪2016 ᖺ࠿ࡽ 2017 ᖺࡢィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࢆ 2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇ࡜⾲グࡍࡿࠋ㸦1㸧✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࣔࢹࣝ㝆Ỉ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣᶓᒣࡽ 11)࡟࡞ࡽ࠸⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠸㸪㝆Ỉᙧែࡣ 2oC ௨ୖࢆ㝆㞵㸪2oC ᮍ‶ࢆ㝆㞷࡜ุูࡋࡓࠋḟ࡟㏆⸨ࡽ 12)࡟࡞ࡽ࠸㔜ࡳ௜ࡁ㊥㞳ᖹᆒἲ࡜㝆㞷ࡢᶆ㧗౫Ꮡᛶࡼࡾ㝆Ỉ㔞ศᕸࢆసᡂࡋࡓࠋ✚㞷㔞ࡣ㸦1㸧ᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚᪥༢఩ࡢ✚㞷Ỉ㔞ࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿࠋ݀ሺܹܵ‫ܧ‬ሻ ൌ ܵ‫ ܨ‬െ ܵ‫ܯ‬݀‫ݐ‬ሺͳሻࡇࡇ࡛㸪SWE ࡣ✚㞷Ỉ㔞㸦mm㸧㸪SF ࡣ㝆Ỉ㔞㸦mm/hour㸧㸪SM ࡣ⼥㞷㔞㸦mm/hour㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋ݀‫ࡣݐ‬ィ⟬᫬㛫㛫㝸 1 ᫬㛫࡜ࡋࡓࠋ⼥㞷㔞ࡣ⾲㠃⼥㞷㔞࡜ᗏ㠃⼥㞷㔞ࡢྜィ࡜ࡋࡓࠋᗏ㠃⼥㞷㔞ࢆ 2.0mm/day ࡜ࡋ㸪⾲㠃⼥㞷㔞ࡣ Degree-Hour ἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡋࡓࠋ⾲㠃⼥㞷ࢆ㸦2㸧ᘧ࡟♧ࡍሺʹሻܵ‫ ܯ‬ൌ ‫ ܭ‬ൈ ܶooࡇࡇ࡛㸪‫⼥ࡣܭ‬㞷ಀᩘ㸦mm/ C /hour㸧㸪ܶࡣ 0 C ௨ୖࡢẼࢱ࡜ AMeDAS ࡢẼ㸦Υ㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋẼศᕸࡣᶆ㧗ࢹ࣮ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚㔜ࡳ௜ࡁ㊥㞳ᖹᆒἲ࡟ࡼࡾ✵㛫ෆᤄࡋࡓࠋ⼥㞷ಀᩘ‫✚ࡣܭ‬㞷ࡢጞࡲࡾ࠿ࡽᾘ㞷ࡲ୍࡛ᐃ್࡜௬ᐃࡋ㸪2017 ᖺ 4 ᭶௨㝆ࡢὶฟ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡀほ್࡜୍⮴ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ⼥㞷ಀᩘࡣ 0.12 mm/oC/hour ࡜タᐃࡋ㸪2016ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ⼥㞷ಀᩘࡶྠᵝࡢ್࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓࠋ㸦2㸧ὶฟࣔࢹࣝ ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡣᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࢆἙᕝ㒊࡜ᩳ㠃㒊࡟ศ๭ࡋ࡚㸪ὶᇦෆࡢྛ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࡢὶࢀࢆィ⟬ࡋࡓࠋ௨ୗ࡟ᇶ♏ᘧࢆ♧ࡍࠋἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃࡢࡓࡵ࡟ὶฟᡂศࢆ┤᥋ὶฟ࡜ᇶᗏὶฟࡢ
2 ẁࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⾲⌧ࡍࡿศᕸᆺὶฟࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏ࡋࡓࠋ┤᥋ὶᒙࡢἙ㐨㒊࡟ Diffusion Waveἲ㸪ᩳ㠃㒊࡟ Kinematic Wave ἲ㸪ᇶᗏὶᒙ࡟ࡣ㈓␃㛵ᩘἲࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠋa) Ἑᕝ㒊Ἑᕝ㒊ࡢὶࢀࡣ Diffusion Wave ἲ࡜㐃⥆ᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬ࡋࡓࠋDiffusion Wave ἲ࡜㐃⥆ᘧࢆ㸦3㸧㸪㸦4㸧ᘧ࡟♧ࡍࠋ݄݃݃݊ଶ ‫ݍ‬ଶ߲݄െ ݄݃݅ ൅ൌ Ͳ଻߲‫ݔ‬݄ଷ

ሺ͵ሻ߲݄ ߲‫ݍ‬൅ൌ ሺܴ ൅ ܵ‫ܯ‬ሻ߲‫ݔ߲ ݐ‬ሺͶሻࡇࡇ࡛㸪݃ࡣ㔜ຊຍ㏿ᗘ㸪႙ ࡣỈ῝㸦m㸧㸪‫ࡣݔ‬ὶୗ᪉ྥࡢ㊥㞳㸦m㸧㸪i ࡣỈ㊰໙㓄㸪‫ࡣݍ‬Ἑᕝ㒊ࡢ

14༢఩ᖜὶ㔞㸦m2/s㸧㸪‫ࡣݐ‬᫬㛫㸦s㸧㸪 ݊ࡣ࣐ࢽࣥࢢࡢ⢒ᗘಀᩘ㸦m-1/3࣭s㸧㸪ܴࡣ㝆㞵㔞㸦m/s㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⢒ᗘಀᩘࡣྛ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࡢᅵᆅ฼⏝࡟ᛂࡌ࡚タᐃࡋࡓࠋᅵᆅ฼⏝ẖࡢ⢒ᗘಀᩘࡣỈ⌮බᘧ㞟ࢆཧ⪃࡟ࡋࡓ 13)ࠋb) ᩳ㠃㒊
ᩳ㠃㒊ࡢὶࢀࡣ┤᥋ὶฟ࡜ᇶᗏὶฟࡢ 2 ᒙࢆ௬ᐃࡋࡓࠋ┤᥋ὶฟࡢὶࢀࡣ Kinematic Wave ἲ࡜㐃⥆ࡢᘧ㸪ᇶᗏὶฟࡢὶࢀࡣ㈓␃㛵ᩘἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬ࡋࡓࠋKinematic Wave ἲ࡜㐃⥆ࡢᘧࢆ
㸦5㸧㸪㸦6㸧ᘧ㸪㈓␃㛵ᩘἲ࡜㐃⥆ࡢᘧࢆ㸦7㸧㸪㸦8㸧ᘧ࡟♧ࡍࠋെ݄݃݅ ൅݃݊ଶ ‫ݍ‬௦ ଶ଻ሺͷሻൌ Ͳ݄ଷ߲݄ ߲‫ݍ‬௦൅ൌ 㸦ܴ ൅ ܵ‫ ܯ‬െ ܴ௜௡ 㸧߲‫ݔ߲ ݐ‬ሺ͸ሻ݀‫ݏ‬ൌ ܴ௜௡ െ ‫ݍ‬௕݀‫ݐ‬ሺ͹ሻ‫ ݏ‬ൌ ݇‫ݍ‬௕ ௣ሺͺሻ‫ݍ‬௦ ࡣ┤᥋ὶฟࡢ༢఩ᖜὶ㔞㸦m/s㸧㸪ܴ௜௡ ࡣᾐ㏱㔞㸦m/s㸧㸪‫ݍ‬௕ ࡣᇶᗏὶฟࡢ༢఩ᖜὶ㔞㸦m/s㸧㸪ܴ௜௡
ࡣᾐ㏱㔞㸦m/s㸧㸪‫ࡣݏ‬ぢ࠿ࡅࡢ㈓␃㧗㸦m㸧㸪‫ݍ‬௕ ࡣᇶᗏὶࡢὶฟ㧗㸦m/s㸧㸪݇࡜‫ࡣ݌‬㈓␃㛵ᩘἲࡢࣔࢹࣝಀᩘ࡛㸪k=40.0, p=0.5 ࡜タᐃࡋࡓࠋ㸦3㸧ศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘホ౯ἲ ᮏ◊✲ࡣㄗᕪホ౯ᣦᩘࡢ 1 ࡘ࡛࠶ࡿ Nash-Sutcliffe ಀᩘ㸦Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970㸧㸦௨ୗ㸪NSಀᩘ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚⢭ᗘホ౯ࡋࡓࠋNS ಀᩘࡢ್ࡀ 1 ࡟㏆࠸࡯࡝ࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࠋ
5.

⤖ᯝཬࡧ⪃ᐹ
኱ᕝࢲ࣒㞟Ỉᇦࡢ᭱኱✚㞷Ỉ㔞ศᕸࢆᅗ  ࡟♧ࡍࠋ2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ᭱኱✚㞷Ỉ㔞ࡢィ⟬್ࡣ

1 ᭶ 31 ᪥ࡢ 6.9107 m3㸪2017 ✚㞷ᮇࡢ᭱኱✚㞷Ỉ㔞ࡣ 2 ᭶ 13 ᪥ࡢ 12107 m3 ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ2017ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ᭱኱✚㞷Ỉ㔞ࡀ 2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡼࡾ኱ࡁ࠸⌮⏤࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᅗ  ࡟♧ࡋࡓ࡜࠾ࡾ 2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞ࡀ 2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡼࡾࡶ኱ࡁࡃ㸪ᖹᆒẼࡶప࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪ᾘ㞷ࡢ᫬ᮇࡶ 2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ᪉ࡀ 30 ᪥࡯࡝㐜࠸ࠋᅗ  ࡟⏣ᓥほⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢほ್㸪⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢィ⟬್ࢆ♧ࡍࠋ2015 ᖺ 12 ᭶࠿ࡽ 2016 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡢ NS ಀᩘࡣ 0.18㸪2016 ᖺ 12 ᭶࠿ࡽ 2017 ᖺ 5 ᭶
ࡢ NS ಀᩘࡣ 0.57 ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⼥㞷ฟỈ᫬ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࢆ༑ศ࡟෌⌧࡛ࡁ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋほ್ࡼࡾ 2017ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ⼥㞷ฟỈࡣ 3 ᭶ୗ᪪࡟ጞࡲࡾ㸪5 ᭶ୗ᪪ࡲ࡛⣙ 2 ࠿᭶⥆ࡃࡀ㸪ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿ᥎ᐃ್
ࡣ⼥㞷ฟỈᮇ㛫ࡢほ್࡟ᑐࡋ࡚⣙ 50%ࡢ㐣ᑠ᥎ᐃ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢⅬ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ㝆㞷㔞ࡢ㐣ᑠ᥎ᐃࡀ㸯ࡘࡢせᅉ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ
௨ୗࡣศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⏣ᓥほⅬࡢィ⟬ὶ㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㏙࡭ࡿࠋ2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢ⥲ὶ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ 3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶ࡢ⥲ὶ㔞ࡣ⌧ᅾࢩࢼ࡛ࣜ࢜⣙ 46%ࢆ༨ࡵ㸪ᖹᆒὶ㔞ࡣ 6.7m3/s
࡜࡞ࡗࡓࠋ඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢሙྜ㸪⣙ 43%ࢆ༨ࡵ㸪ᖹᆒὶ㔞ࡣ 5.0m3/s ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜
࡜඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢᕪࢆ⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜㸪3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶ࡣ 1.7m3/s ࡀᐤ୚࡜⟬ฟࡉࢀ㸪ࡇࡢ᫬ᮇࡢὶ㔞ࡢ 26%ࢆ༨ࡵࡿࠋୖ㏙ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ 2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡣ✚㞷㔞ࡀᑡ࡞ࡃ㸪ᩘ್ィ⟬ࡢ

15⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽࡶ⼥㞷ࡢ᫂☜࡞ᐤ୚ࢆᢳฟ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋ୍᪉࡛㸪2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪⌧ᅾࢩࢼ࡛ࣜ࢜⥲ὶ㔞࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ 3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶ࡢ⥲ὶ㔞ࡣ 63%ࢆ༨ࡵ㸪ᖹᆒὶ㔞ࡣ 12.5 m3/s ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ 36%ࢆ༨ࡵ㸪ᖹᆒὶ㔞ࡣ 5.6m3/s ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢᕪࢆ⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜㸪3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶ࡣ 6.9m3/s ࡀᐤ୚࡜⟬ฟࡉࢀ㸪ࡇࡢ᫬ᮇࡢὶ
㔞ࡢ 55%ࢆ༨ࡵࡿࠋࡇࡢࡲࡓ㸪2016 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇ࡜ 2017 ᖺ✚㞷ᮇࡢᩘ್ࡼࡾ⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣྛᖺࡢኚືࡀ኱ࡁ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡶ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋ
6.

ࡲ࡜ࡵ ᮏ◊✲ࡣ㸪㜿㈡㔝ᕝୖὶᇦ࡟఩⨨ࡍࡿ኱ᕝࢲ࣒㞟Ỉᇦࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏ࡋ㸪⼥㞷ฟỈ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓࠋศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡣ 3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5᭶ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࢆ⣙ 50%㐣ᑠ᥎ᐃࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪⼥㞷ฟỈࢆ༑ศ࡟෌⌧࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋ௒ᚋ㸪✚㞷࣭⼥㞷ࣔࢹࣝ࠾ࡼࡧὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖࡀㄢ㢟࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪2017 ᖺ 3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶ࡢὶฟ㔞࡟
SWE(mm)ᅗ  ኱ᕝࢲ࣒㞟Ỉᇦࡢ᭱኱✚㞷Ỉ㔞㸦ᕥ㸸 ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥㸪ྑ㸸 ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥㸧ほDischarge(m3/s)

100⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜

80
60
40
20
0
12/1

1/1

2/1
ほ

100

Discharge(m3/s)

್

್

3/3
⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜

4/35/4඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜

80
60
40
20
012/1

1/1

ᅗ  ほ

2/1

3/4

4/4

5/5ὶ㔞㸪⌧ᅾࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜඲㝆㞵ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢィ⟬ὶ㔞㸦ୖ㸸 ᖺ  ᭶࠿ࡽ  ᖺ  ᭶㸪ୗ㸸 ᖺ  ᭶࠿ࡽ  ᖺ  ᭶㸧16ᑐࡋ࡚⼥㞷ࡢᐤ୚ࡀ 55%ࢆ༨ࡵࡿ࡜⟬ฟࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪✚㞷㔞ࡀᑡ࡞࠸ 2016 ᖺ 3 ᭶࠿ࡽ 5 ᭶࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ᫂☜࡞ᐤ୚ࢆ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡎ㸪ྛᖺࡢኚືࡀ኱ࡁ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡶ♧၀ࡉࢀࡓࠋ௒ᚋࡢㄢ㢟࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ศᕸᆺ⼥㞷࣭ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖ࡜ᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫ࡢᣑ኱㸪ࡲࡓẼೃኚືࡢᙳ㡪ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ✚㞷Ỉ㔞࡜⼥㞷ฟỈࡢኚ໬ࡢホ౯ࢆ⾜࠺ࠋㅰ㎡ ᮏ◊✲ࡢ୍㒊ࡣ JSPS ⛉◊㈝㸦20K04712㸪௦⾲㸸ᮅᒸⰋᾈ㸧࠾ࡼࡧ JSPS ஧ᅜ㛫஺ὶ஦ᴗࡢᨭ᥼࡟ࡼࡾᐇ᪋ࡉࢀࡓࠋࡇࡇ࡟ㅰពࢆ♧ࡍࠋཧ⪃ᩥ⊩1)

ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬: ㇦㞷ᆅᖏᑐ⟇≉ูᥐ⨨ἲ, 2015.

2) IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Part A: Global
and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
3)Ẽ㇟ᗇ: Ẽ㇟ᗇᆅ⌫4)᪥ᮏἙᕝ༠఍: Ἑᕝ౽ぴ, 1993.

5)⤒῭⏘ᴗ┬㈨※࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ᗇ: ᪥ᮏࡢỈຊ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㔞 Ⓨ㟁Ỉຊㄪᰝᬮ໬ண᝟ሗ 9 ᕳ, 2017.

https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/category/electricity_and_gas/electric/hydroelectric/database/energy_japan001/㸦2020/01/14 㜀ぴ㸧
6)JA ඲㎰࡟࠸ࡀࡓ㸸᪂₲⡿࠾࠸ࡋࡉࡢ⛎ジ㸪https://www.nt.zennoh.or.jp/eat/reason/㸦2020/01/14 㜀ぴ㸧㸬

7)

Abdul Haseeb Azizi and Yoshihiro Asaoka: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on SnowDistribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western
Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan, Hydrology, Vol.7, No.4, 74, 2020.

8)⬟Ⓩᩥ࿴, ୸ᒣ฼㍜, ᪩℩ྜྷ㞝, ℧ᮏ⿱ኈ, ୰ᮧබே: ᡭྲྀᕝᒣᆅὶᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ✚㞷Ỉ㈨※㔞ࡢホ౯, ㎰ᴗ㎰ᮧᕤᏛ఍ㄽᩥ㞟, 268, pp.31-37, 2010.

9) ᯽ಇ㍜, ᮅᒸⰋᾈ, 㢼㛫⪽: ✚㞷῝ࢹ࣮ࢱྠ໬࡟ࡼࡿ⼥㞷ฟỈゎᯒ, ᅵᮌᏛ఍ㄽᩥ㞟 B1㸦ỈᕤᏛ㸧Vol.67, No.4, I_403-I_408, 2011.
10) 㜿㈡㔝ᕝỈ⣔ࡢὶᇦཬࡧἙᕝࡢᴫせ㸦᱌㸧: ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬Ἑᕝᒁ, pp.50, ᖹᡂ 19 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 11 ᪥11) ᶓᒣᏹኴ㑻, ኱㔝ᏹஅ, ᑠ༡㟹ᘯ, ஭ୖ⪽, ᕝ᪉ಇ࿴: ෤Ꮨ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㝆Ỉ㔞ࡢᤕᤊ≉ᛶ, ᪥ᮏ㞷ịᏛ఍ㄅ, Vol.65, pp303-316, 2003.
12) ㏆⸨⣧ṇ, ᮏ㇂◊, ᯇᓥ኱: ᪂ࣂࢣࢶࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓὶᇦࡢᅵተỈศ㔞, ὶฟ㔞, ✚㞷Ỉᙜ㔞, ཬࡧἙᕝỈࡢ◊✲, ኳẼ, Vol.42, pp.821-831, 199513) ᅵᮌᏛ఍: Ỉ⌮බᘧ㞟㹙ᖹᡂ 11 ᖺᗘ∧㹛, ୸ၿ, pp.40, 1999.
14) Nash, J. E., Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—A
discussion of principles. Journal of hydrology, 10(3), 282-290, 1970.