Annex 5 - India

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1Trends in India @2050
Scenario

AllTrends in India
Market•Passenger cars and commercial vehicles: Significant increases in both new vehicle sales and in-use
fleets; for motorcycles, gradual declines in new vehicle sales and in-use fleet.

Energy mix•

Share of clean energy is approximately 80%.

•

Share of electrified vehicles in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is almost
100%, with about 30% of new passenger cars being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle fleetsis approximately 20%.

Electrifiedvehicles•CNF
Fuel mix

BEV752050/2020
CO2 emissions

Electrifiedvehicles••

Just under 50% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 30% of total fuel consumption n 2050. (In theCNF+ scenario, that share is approx. 52%.)•

Share of electrified vehicles in new passenger car and commercial vehicle sales
is 100%, with about 50% being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle fleetsis approximately 40%.

•Fuel mix••

More than 60% is CNF (synthetic fuels, biofuels) + electricity + hydrogen.
CNF share represents approx. 25% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial vehicle fleetsis approximately 90%.

•About 80% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuels = 0%.)
Biofuel share = approx. 6% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

NZE
Fuel mix•+21% approx.
(In CNF+,-16% approx.)-1% approx.

-24% approx.

CO2 emission levels range between about +21% to -24% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in two scenarios are within the IPCC 2050 2.0℃ climate scenarios’ -14% to -44% range.)
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New Passenger Car Sales (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEVHEVNGVICE

BEV75NZE
FCEV

PHEV

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3New Commercial Vehicle Sales (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
HEV

ICE

BEV75

NGV

NZE

FCEV

PHEV

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New Motorcycle Sales (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
ICE

BEV75

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NZE

5

In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
HEV
NGV
ICE

NZE

BEV75

FCEV

PHEV

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In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
HEVNGVICENZE

BEV75

FCEV
PHEV

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In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (India)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEVICE

BEV75

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NZE

8Automotive Fuel Mix (India)
BAU（In ktoe）

CNF
Electricity
CNG

Petroleum

Biofuel

NZE

BEV75

Hydrogen
Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Energy Mix (India)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU
RenewableenergyBiomass
Fossil fuels

Nuclear
Fossilfuels+CCS（gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (India)（In ktCO2）

Note: The CNF+ scenario assumes that CNF supply is 1.25 times greater than in the CNF scenario, has a 40% (approx.) instead of 30% share (approx.) in the fuelmix and that most of the increase will be supplied to Africa, the Middle East, India, and ASEAN where the supply of decarbonized energy is a major challenge.

CO2 emission levels range between about +21% to -24% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in two scenarios are within the IPCC 2050 2.0℃ climate scenarios’ -14% to -44% range.)
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