65

Contribution of Municipal Solid Waste Management toDecarbonization in Laos
BounEua KHAMPHILAVANH1, 2* and Toshihiko MASUI3
1

School of Industrial Engineering and Economics, Tokyo Institute of Technology
2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan2
Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
P.O.Box: 7864, Nongbeuk Village, Sikhottabong District, Vientiane Capital, Laos
3
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan*E-mail: euamaster@gmail.com

Abstract
This study used the AIM/CGE [Laos] model to assess contribution of sustainable municipal solid waste
management (MSW) to decarbonization in Laos by introducing a “waste-to-sources” approach including
policies such as increasing the waste collection rate and solid waste recycling, which uses waste as energy. In
Laos, common practices for handling solid wastes are direct dumping and open burning, and a government
report (MONRE, 2022) on the state of pollution in Laos has noted that along with from road transport
emissions, which are a main source of urban air pollution, improper waste disposal also threatens urban air
quality in the main cities of Laos. Our model sets two scenarios: a business as usual (BaU) scenario in whichwaste dumping practices before treatment by households remain unchanged in the future, and acountermeasures (CM) scenario in which direct waste dumping decreases significantly under the assumption of
the waste collection rate reaching 100% by 2050. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from MSW management
under the BaU scenario increase by a factor of nearly seven by 2050. However, by introducing MSW recycling,
GHG emissions can be reduced to 93% in 2050 compared to those of the BaU scenario. An increase inrecycling rates will provide more recycled materials to the production sector, which will result in decreased
GHG emissions in the sectors to which the recycled materials are provided. In the recycling sector, however,
the result will be an increase in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To achieve decarbonization in
Laos, performing material recycling through energy-efficient processes will be important.
Key words: decarbonization, MSW management, sustainability

1. Introduction
Increased human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions resulting from fossil fuel burning havedisrupted the carbon cycle balance in the Earth’s natural
system, resulting in extreme global climatic changes(Taskinsoy, 2019). Net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 is
proposed as Laos’s long-term strategy. The main source of
GHG emissions in 2014 in Laos was the agriculture,
forestry and land use (AFOLU) sector, which emitted
18,800 GgCO2eq, accounting for about 78% of thecountry’s total emissions. The second largest source ofemissions was the energy sector, which emitted 3,800
GgCO2eq (15%). The rest, industrial processes andproducts use (IPPU) and waste accounted for 5% and 2%of the national emissions, respectively (MONRE, 2020).
Global Environmental Research
26/2022 065−070
printed in Japan

Although countermeasures to energy-related CO2 areregarded as most important in 2050 in proportion tochanges in income growth, other GHG emission sources
will have to be considered to achieve net-zero emissions.
Population growth and economic advancement are
the main factors motivating people to migrate to, settle inand work in the main cities. This is the root of rapid
urbanization. People living in the cities can afford to
consume more products than those living in other areas.
More consumption drives increased waste generation,
particularly of municipal solid waste (MSW). When
MSW is treated improperly, it can generate GHG
emissions. Generally, a common challenge in developing
countries is the low rate of solid waste collection. When it
is collected, the common ways of treating it are open
dumping and burning. In the developing world, due to©2022 AIRIES

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B. KHAMPHILAVANH and T. MASUI

budget constraints, low-skilled workers and lack oftechnology, landfilling is the ordinary method of waste
disposal (Kumar & Sharma, 2014).
Nowadays, the Lao PDR government faces
challenges to achieving its goals of a green economy andsustainability (JICA, 2021). Particularly, the impact of
rapid urbanization in recent years has resulted in theremaining capacity of final disposal sites in cities
becoming insufficient. Waste collection rates remain low
and vacant lots are not properly treated. Even though final
disposal sites for waste exist in the main prefectures, alack of human resources, technology, equipment andfinancing prevent the creation of environmentally soundlandfills, and problems such as GHG emissions are stillapparent.
The Lao PDR government plan for 2021–2025 (MPI,2021) puts a remarkable priority on achieving by 2025 agoal of effective conservation of the natural environment
based on green economy and sustainability. As activities
to be undertaken between 2021 and 2025 to achieve thisgoal, it mentions the following items in relation to waste
reduction: promoting green and sustainable developmentby establishing systems for waste management andreduction; and applying mechanisms to manage, eliminate
and reduce waste generation while facilitating theapplication of the 3Rs (reduce, reuse, recycle) Principle in
Laos’s main municipalities (GGGI, 2018). The related
policies and strategies for managing decarbonization in
the energy and AFOLU sectors are already in place, butthere is no strategy on sustainable MSW management at
the national level. Therefore, the plan recommends
strategically preparing for such a situation by prioritizing
major cities for improvement according to the severity of
the waste problem, and by considering the similarity ofproblems such as low collection rates and improper
disposal, and the applicability of countermeasures to the
problems of other cities.
Current solid waste management practices in Laosare primarily based on a “collect and dispose” approachthat overlooks the enormous potential for converting
waste into resources. The adoption of a waste-to-resource
approach has the potential to contribute to national
development priorities, since this approach is at the top of
the waste management hierarchy pyramid (Hoornweg &Bhada-Tata, 2012; UNEP, 2013). This analysis assesses
the effectiveness of introducing a waste-to-resource
approach in Laos to reduce GHG emissions from the solid
waste sector.
Adoption of a waste-to-resource approach isrecommended and being considered as a pilot program for
MSW management in Vientiane, the capital of Laos. Thisapproach has the potential to reduce GHG emissions from
disposal sites, and it is believed that it will have the ability
to ensure a certain level of segregation, enabling
conversion into a product and energy (GGGI, 2018) andpossibly leading to indirect GHG emission reductions inother sectors.
The objective of this study is to analyze the adoptionof a “waste-to-resource” approach in Laos through a
comparison of GHG emissions from municipal solid
waste management by applying a national scalecomputable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

2. Methodology and Data
2.1 The Method
The AIM/CGE [Laos] model developed by the
Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) team (Masui et al.,2011; Khamphilavanh & Masui, 2020) was revised toenable it to estimate GHG emissions by introducing the“waste-to-resource” approach for municipal solid waste
management in Laos, such as increases in waste collection
rates and recycling rates. AIM/CGE [Laos] is anational-scale computable general equilibrium model withrecursive dynamics, disaggregating a total of 41
commodities, as shown in Table 1. The revised model
includes MSW, which is categorized into five waste types;
organic wastes (48%), plastics (18%), paper (7%), glass(6%), steel (4%) and others (17%). It is assumed that all
MSW per capita is generated from the household sector inproportion to per capita income, and that the share of eachwaste type will be the same up to 2050. The generated
MSW is collected and treated in the recycling sector (No.
20 in Table 1), or uncollected and self-disposed. In therecycling sector, the collected MSW is treated, and therecyclable part of the treated waste is recycled with therest of it being dumped at a final disposal site. Recycledplastic, paper, glass and steel wastes are supplied to therelated material markets. The organic wastes can berecycled to fertilizer (chemical products in the model) or
electricity. The total dumped waste consists of uncollected
self-disposed waste and residue after treatment. Figure 1
illustrates the waste flow in this model.
Each production sector inputs capital, labor, energy
and material, and produces its specific commodity, as
shown in Fig. 2. Most of the elasticities are assumed to be
0 within a year, but the share parameters are updated tocorrespond to new investment annually. The recycling
sector can produce recycled material in addition toproviding MSW collection and treatment services. GHG
emissions from the fossil fuel combustion and production
processes in each sector are taken into account. Recycling
costs, however, are not reflected due to a lack of
information.
2.2 The Data
The main data used in developing the AIM/CGE[Laos] model were based on the Laos input-output (IO)
table of 2014 (ADB, 2018). The information related towaste generation in this study was gained from thenational statistic yearbook (MPI, 2018).
Based on JICA’s initial survey (JICA, 2021), theContribution of Municipal Solid Waste Management to Decarbonization in Laos
Table 1

67

List of 41 commodities in AIM/CGE [Laos].

1. Crops *2. Livestock *3. Forestry *4. Fishing
5. Mining and quarrying
6. Food, beverages and tobacco
7. Textiles and textile products
8. Leather, leather products and footwear
9. Wood and products of wood and cork
10. Pulp, paper, paper products, printing and publishing
11. Coke and nuclear fuel12. Refined petroleum
13. Chemicals and chemical products
14. Rubber and plastics
15. Other non-metallic minerals
16. Basic metals and fabricated metal
17. Machinery, etc.
18. Electrical and optical equipment
19. Transport equipment
20. Manufacturing, etc.; recycling
21. Electricity [hydropower and coal thermal power]
22. Water
23. Construction
24. Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles;
retail sale of fuel25. Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles andmotorcycles
26. Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair ofhousehold goods
27. Hotels and restaurants
28. Inland transport
29. Water transport
30. Air transport
31. Other supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities oftravel agencies
32. Post and telecommunications
33. Financial intermediation
34. Real estate activities
35. Renting of machinery & equipment and other business activities
36. Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
37. Education
38. Health and social work
39. Other community, social and personal services
40. Private households with employed persons
41. Biofuel*Sectors requiring land.

amount of solid waste generated in Laos in 2015 was 1.3
million tons and it is assumed that the solid waste
generation per capita will increase linearly. In addition, it
is assumed that the ratio of each kind of solid waste tototal waste will be the same up to 2050. The ratio ofcollection to generation of each waste in 2014 is set at
34% and the ratio of recycling to collection of waste in2014 is set at 10%. In this analysis, due to a lack of data,
it is assumed that extending waste collection andrecycling in the waste management sector can be
implemented with no additional costs.
2.3 The Scenarios
In this study, two scenarios are presented, thebusiness as usual (BaU) and countermeasure (CM)scenarios. The BaU scenario assumes that the present
situation will continue, including the state of air pollution

RelatedmarketTotal final dump

dump after
treatment

Recycledcommodity

Recycling sector
Recycle rate
Collection &treatment

Direct dump

Collection rate
MSW generation(organic waste, plastic, paper, glass & steels)

Household sector
waste flowcommodity flow

Fig. 1MSW flow in this model.

Recycling*1(Material or electricity)

Corresponding product
θ=0

Production process

GHG from
production process

σ=0
Land*2

Value added with energy

Material inputs

σ=0
Value added

Aggregated
Energy

σ=1

σ=0

Labor

CapitalEnergyGHG from
fuel combustion
Energy*1: Only the recycling sector can produce the related material orelectricity.
*2: Land is used in the agriculture and forestry sectors.
σ: Elasticity of substitution
θ: Elasticity of transformation

Fig. 2

Production process.

in the main cities, which is caused by improper waste
treatment (MONRE, 2022), and that there is no additional
waste management policy in this scenario. The average
GDP growth rate from 2020 to 2050 is set at 5.7% per
year, while the population growth rate during the same
period is assumed to be 1.2% per year. In the BaU
scenario, it is assumed that the share of MSW, collection

B. KHAMPHILAVANH and T. MASUI

rate of MSW and MSW recycling rate will not change inthe future.
In the CM scenario, the socio-economic assumptions
are the same, except that adoption of a “waste-to-resource”
approach for MSW management is initiated. In this paper,
the following two targets on MSW collection andtreatment are assumed in the CM scenario: (1) the MSW
collection rate will increase from 34% in 2014 to 100% in
2050, and (2) the MSW recycling rate will increase from
10% in 2014 to 40% in 2040 and 80% in 2050. The
contribution of these targets to GHG emission reductionin Lao is assessed for the CM scenario.

3. Results and Discussion
3.1 GDPIn the CM scenario, extension of material recycling isassumed. When comparing the GDP value between the
BaU and CM scenarios, it can be seen that in the CM
scenario there will be some negative impact on the GDP,
which will be reduced by about 0.3% by 2040 and 0.7%
by 2050 compared with the BaU scenario, as shown in
Fig. 3. The cost of waste recycling is not considered inthis analysis. When the cost of recycling is taken into
account, it may have an additional negative impact on
GDP.
3.2 Final Waste Disposal
Waste generation will increase in proportion toincreases in income levels. As a result, final waste
disposal in BaU will also increase, as shown in Fig. 4.
The total final disposed waste, which consists of both
uncollected waste self-disposed by households andresidue after treatment, keeps growing by a factor of
about 6.6 times by 2050 compared to that in 2014.
In the case of the CM scenario, because of theincreased MSW collection rate to 100% by 2050, direct
waste dumping by households will gradually decrease
compared to the BaU scenario, with direct waste dumping
reaching zero by 2050. At the same time, the amount oftreated MSW will increase, but because of the increased
recycling rate, treatment residues will also increase by

2050 compared to in the base year but this increase islower than that in the BaU scenario. As a result, the total
final waste disposed in 2050 in the CM scenario will be
only 16% as big as that of the BaU scenario.
3.3 GHG Emissions from MSW Management
Under the BaU scenario, the GHG emissions from
MSW management will increase by almost seven times
from the base year; the emissions in 2014, 68 ktCO2eq,
are likely to increase to 240 ktCO2eq in 2050. By
introducing MSW recycling under the CM scenario,
however, the GHG emissions arising from direct disposalof organic wastes can be reduced, and as a result, theGHG emissions from MSW management can be reducedby 16% in 2030 and 93% in 2050 compared to those of
the BaU scenario (Fig. 5).
The total GHG emissions from all sectors, except the
AFOLU sector, in the BaU scenario will increase by afactor of about three from 2014 to 2050. In the case of the
CM scenario, the total GHG emissions in 2050 will bealmost the same as emissions under the BaU scenario, asshown in Fig. 6. The small contribution of sustainablesolid waste management to reducing GHG emissions fromsolid waste treatment is small compared to total emissions.
In the CM scenario, the GHG emissions in the sectors towhich the recycled materials are provided will decrease
because of increased recycling and greater availability ofrecycled materials to use. On the other hand, because theamount of treated MSW will increase in the recycling
sector in the CM scenario, the energy-related CO2
7,000
6,000
thousand tone

68

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-

2014

2020
2025
2030
Dump after treatment in BaU
Dump after treatment in CM

Fig. 4

2035
2040
2045
Direct dump in BaU
Direct dump in CM

2050

Final waste disposal.

100,000
300
250

60,000ktCO2eq

million USD

80,00040,00020,000

200
150
100
50

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BaU
Fig. 3CM

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Laos.

0
2014

2020

2025

2030

BaU
Fig. 5

2035

2040

2045

CM

GHG emissions from MSW management.

2050

Contribution of Municipal Solid Waste Management to Decarbonization in Laos

70,000ktCO2eq60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0002014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BaU
Fig. 6CM

Total GHG emissions in Laos.

emissions in this sector will increase compared to the BaU
scenario by 2050. These results indicate that GHG
mitigation actions will be important in the recycling sector.
In addition, due to economic growth, GHG emission
rebound effects can be observed. In this analysis,
mitigation actions aside from SWM recycling have notbeen considered, but to avoid rebound effects,
countermeasures in various sectors should be taken into
account, particularly in the urbanization and economic
sectors.

4. Conclusion
This paper has assessed the contribution of MSW
management to decarbonization in Laos by analyzing the
adoption of a “waste-to-resource” approach as acountermeasure policy for sustainable MSW treatment.
Adopting this action will have significant impacts on final
waste disposal and, in particular, direct waste dumping byhouseholds will decline slightly. Due to the increased
recycling rate, however, treatment residues will gradually
increase. By promoting MSW recycling, emissions fromdirect disposal of organic waste can be decreased. In
addition, because of the increased recycling rate, the GHG
emissions from the sectors to which the recycled materials
are supplied will decline. The increased amount of treated
MSW in the recycling sector, however, will result in an
increase in energy-related CO2 emissions.
In Laos, furthermore, as in other developing
countries, the common practices for handling solid waste
are dumping and open burning. Based on the MONRE
report (2022) on the state of pollution in Laos, which
noted that in addition to emissions from road transport–amain source of urban air pollution, improper waste
disposal is a threat to urban air quality in the main cities.
Sustainable MSW management, particularly adoption of a
“waste-to-resource” approach, will have the potential tocontribute to national development priorities andsustainable and green growth, for instance. In addition,
sustainable MSW management will contribute to theachievement of several United Nations Sustainable

69

Development Goals (SDGs). For example, a cleaner
environment resulting from improved solid waste
management practices could support healthier lives andwell-being of populations (SDG 3). Other SDGs could beindirectly promoted through sound waste management
practices, such as SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy,
if solid waste is harnessed in the form of energy.
Regarding future research, since recycling costs were
not considered in this analysis, the macro-economic
impacts may have been underestimated, so in future work,
we will have to consider recycling costs in this analysis.
In a net zero assessment, all mitigation options will haveto be considered and actions to avoid rebound effects
should be considered, such as the banning of plastic bags
or implementation of a pricing-by-the-bag policy.
Acknowledgement
This research was performed under the Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund JPMEERF
20192008 and JPMEERF20221002 of the Environmental
Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.
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B. KHAMPHILAVANH and T. MASUIBounEua KHAMPHILAVANH
BounEua Khamphilavanh, who majored inindustrial engineering and economics, serves as
deputy director of the Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Division, Department of Climate Change, Ministryof Natural Resources and Environment, Laos,
where he has been in charge of promoting andfacilitating decarbonization by collaborating with partners, particularly
through cooperation with the Ministry of the Environment of Japan and theInstitute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) to support low-carbon
development activities that have been promoted through the joint crediting
mechanism (JCM). He also cooperates and collaborates with the AIM teamand International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet)
to develop decarbonization scenarios, specifically for Laos.

Toshihiko MASUI
Prof. Masui received his Ph.D. from the Graduate
School of Engineering Osaka University. He joined
NIES as a researcher in 1998. He has held his
current position since April 2022 after serving as
senior researcher and director. He has a concurrent
appointment as a visiting professor at the Tokyo
Institute of Technology School of Engineering. His
research focuses on development of the Computable General Equilibrium
Model, one of the component models of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelbeing developed at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, andapplication of the model to assessing climate change mitigation measures.
Prof. Masui currently serves as Social Systems Division Director at NIES.

(Received 13 October 2022, Accepted 28 December 2022)