Peer Review in the frame of an
implementation of FY2012 ADRC
Cooperative Project in Tajikistan
By
Kenichiro KOBAYASHI,
KOBAYASHI Associate Professor,
Professor
Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, Japan
Prasong THAMMAPALA, Head of Department Operation Center,
Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Thailand
Junji MORIWAKI, Coordinator/Researcher,
Asian Disaster Reduction Center, Japan
2013/03/04

Peer Review in the frame of an implementation of FY2012 ADRC
Cooperative Project in Tajikistan
Purpose: The Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) dispatches 3 professionals to
Tajikistan for the review of the FY2012 ADRC cooperative project in Tajikistan.
Place: Tajikistan, Rudaki District/Dushanbe
Mission Date: 25-27 February

Review Team:
Kenichiro KOBAYASHI, Associate Professor, Research Center for Urban
Safety and Security, Kobe University, Japan (Team Leader)
Prasong THAMMAPALA, Head of Department Operation Center,
Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Thailand
Junji
j MORIWAKI,, Coordinator/Researcher,, Asian Disaster Reduction
Center, Japan
Contact person:
Alisho SHOMAHMADOV, Research Center for the State Committee ofLand Use and Geodesy of Tajikistan

Review team and the contact person

Peer Review in the frame of an implementation of FY2012 ADRC
Cooperative Project in Tajikistan

Overview:
Tajikistan is a republic country. The capital is located in Dushabe. The area is1431000 m2. The population is 7.5 million. The ethnic group consists of 80 % Tajik,
15 3 % Uzbek,
15.3
U b k 1.1
11%R
Russiani andd others.
th
Tajikistan
T jiki t has
h beenb
suffered
ff d fromfvariousi
disasters such as flood, mudflow, landslide, earthquake, avalanches etc. The country
is occupied by mountains by 93 % where the highest elevation reaches even around
7000m. From its
i landscape,l dmudflowd l andd landslidel d lid in/fromi /theh mountain
i area are
critical problems in regard to the rainfall-induced disaster. In this visit, the interviews
are carried out to national/local authorities and geology professionals focusing on thelandslide/mudflow. Several vulnerable sites for the landslide/mudflow are also visited.
The Water Resources Department/hydrologists/hydraulicpygy
engineersg
are not includedin the interview so that little attention is needed for the comprehensiveness of theinterviews.

Schedule for Peer Review in the frame of an implementation of FY2012
ADRC Cooperative Project in Tajikistan
Time

Activity

Responsible

10:00-11:00

Visit to UNDP DRMP office

Research Center of State Committee
for Land Use and Geodesy(RC SCLUG)

11:00-13:00
11:00
13:00

Visit to Office of FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance

RC SCLUG

13:30-15:30

Visit to Kiblai vulnerable site

The Authority of Rudaki

9:30-10:30

Meeting with the Authority of Rudaki district

RC SCLUG and The Authority of
Rudaki district

10:30-12:00

Visit to Tajikbad vulnerable site

The Authority of Rudaki district

13:00-16:00

Visit to Ganjina vulnerable site

The Authorty iof Rudaki district

8:00-9:00

Meeting in the Main Geology Department

RC SCLUG

9:00-10:30

Meeting in the Institute of geology and seismic engineeringand seismology

RC SCLUG

10:45-13:00

Meeting in Research Center of SCLUGRC SCLUG

14:00-16:30

Workshop in RC SCLUG to exchange findings and opinions

RC SCLUG and Focus

February 25

February 26

February 27

Visited vulnerable sites during 25-26.02.2013

KiblaiDushanbe
TajikbadGanjina

Visit to UNDP-DRMP office
UNDP DRMP: United Nations Development Program Disaster Risk Management Program
Efforts:Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defence((CoES)) & UNDP Tajikistanj
are managing
g g “Disaster Risk
Management Programme Phase III (2010 – 2015)”
Strengthening: The DRMP is managed with the strong
cooperation between CoES and UNDP Tajikistan
Tajikistan. UNDP
Tajikistan consists of international experts both from Tajikistan
and other countries. Thus, the staff members understand both thelocal and international situation well.
Weakness: In Tajikistan, the floods are constant annual problem.
According to the interview, the problem when taking the countermeasures against flood exist not in the knowledge about floods
itself, but rather in non-proper coordination among thestakeholders (e.g. the Hydrometeorology Agency, Ministry of
Water Resources, CoES, etc.).
Recommendations: It is expected that the DRMP project becomesa milestone for the good cooperation among stakeholders. UNDP
is also expected to convey the international views to Tajikistan
people.

Visit to Office of FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance
Efforts: Focus is a NGO. Many community level/grass root
projects for mudflow/landslides are managed by Focus. They
have know-how how to make qualitative hazard Map andpartially GPS based quantitative hazard map.
map
Strengthening: The Focus humanitarian Assistance has
already a lot of know-how how to carry out the community
level flood disaster management fitting to the situation of
Tajikistan. Focus stands by the local people and understands
the needs of them.
Weakness: The approach taken by Focus looks very good
especially considering the situation of Tajikistan. However,from Japanese perspective, we expect further development of
the risk assessment technology based on the state of art
research.
Recommendations: For example,
example SATREPS project
http://www.jst.go.jp/global/
could be one of the possible research funds which could offer
Focus more scientific background in their hazard maps.

Visit to Kiblai vulnerable site
Problem: Severe landslides are happening in the large area of Kiblai
Jamoat, Rudaki district. In addition, there is possibility that the mudflood in the region may reach to the downstream Dushanbe area.
Efforts: The seriousness of landslide in the Kiblai vulnerable site isproperly recognized. The relocation of the villagers are encouraged by
the government using the subsidiary, loan, etc.
Strengthening: The governments recognizes that the resettlements or
any other countermeasures in the region are necessary.
Weakness: The effort for monitoring the situation is stopped. However,monitoring the situation is one of the most important activities for the
mitigation of the mudflow/landslide disasters.
Recommendations: Most probably, it is not cheap to take hardcountermeasures on the Kiblai site. However, to get the funding for themonitoring could be possible. To understand the situation of the site byscientific monitoring is very important as already recognized by the
Tajikistan authority. Moreover, the disaster education on the local
people is expected more. The villagers do not like to resettle because
off theirh i strong affection
ff i to theirh i bornb
land.
l d However,H
peoplel areapparently at risk so that the education on them must be considered
more.

Meeting with the Authority of Rudaki district
Efforts: According to Mr. Ismatov, the vice chairman of the district, theflood is considered one of the biggest challenges for the Rudaki people.
Basically, the mudflow is one of the biggest flood problem in the region.
Th districtThe
di i tackle
kl withi h this
hi problem
bl in
i cooperation
i withi h national
i lgovernments and local people considering that the problem is for all thepeople.
Strengthening:S
h i
Th RudakiThe
R d ki district
di i hash goodd relationl i withi h theh national
i lgovernment and local people. For example, they held the special training forthe disaster mitigation with CoES in 2010. The next training workshop isplanned in 2013. The local people devote themselves for preventing the
mudflow
dfl disasters.
diWeakness: The district recognizes what are the problems in regard to floods.
They have also some idea how to prevent it. However, the budget is notenoughh to carry out theirh i ideas/measures.
id /Th districtThe
di i doesd
not have,hforfexample, money for the bank reinforcement.
Recommendations: Soft measures like disaster education should be tried
f th considering
further
id i theth situation
it ti thatth t theth budgetb d t isi limited.
li it d The
Th preparationti offhazard maps are considered one such activity. ADRC is expected to help
such activities. Moreover, further education on the Tajikistan young
generation is expected. Young experts have good capability for computers. If
th are properly
theyl educatedd t d att e.g. a JJapanese U
University,iit ththey can makek th
thehazard map with relatively low prices. They can also work for the disastereducation. Young motivated expert should be brought up.

Visit to Tajikbad vulnerable site
Situation: In Tajikbad village, there is a hill which is the source ofmudflows. The soil of the hill is eroded due to the strong rainfall. The
flow in the end goes down to the Tajikbad settlements.
Efforts: The authority recognizes the problems and understand the basic
mechanisms of the disaster.
Strengthening:S
h i
Th villageTheill
peoplel are making,ki
forf example,
l mudflow
dfl
diversion channels, mud control dams by themselves though those arebroken once the mudflow occurs. In other word, the effect of thosemeasures are limited and the villagers give up making them in the end.
Th villagers
The
ill
do
d not sleeplwhenh rainingi i strongly.
l TheyTh makek theh shift
hif anddcarry out the monitoring when dangerous.
Weakness: A solution which can be considered is that the villagers do notli there.
live
th
But
B t thisthi isi nott theth realistic
li ti solution
l ti forf theth villagers,
illbecauseb
they do not have enough money for the resettlement. They are too poor to
move. Also, it is not realistic for them to leave their properties by leaving.
Recommendations:Rd ti
T understandTod t d theth situation
it ti off theth vulnerablel
bl siteitquantitatively is important. Scientifically sound monitoring of therainfalls, the movement of the land, etc. should be carried out. The risk
situation is not always sure without the objective data. If those objective
d t implydata
i l us thatth t theth problem
bl cannott beb solvedl d with
ith theth currentt budgetb d t
limitation, then the villagers have to resettle for their lives

Visit to Ganjina vulnerable site
Situation: In the Ganjina village, the bridge and some houses in the village are flashed out by the
mudflow due to strong rainfalls during the rainy season on March and April.
Recommendation:Rd ti
Th things
The
thi
which
hi h hhave tto considered
id d are mostly
tl theth same as theth Tajikbad
T jikb dvulnerability site in the previous slide. Especially, the rainfall intensity has to be monitored around thearea, otherwise it is difficult to know the situation properly. As hard counter measures are not expectedin the veryy short term,, the monitoringg and the soft measures based on the monitoring
g are necessary.
yMeeting in the Main Geology Department
Efforts: According to the interview to Mr. Bahtdavlator Rahmonbek, theDepartment of Geology, the Department is responsible for all the risk
assessment related to the disasters caused by geological reasons. They also
have the database in p
paper.
p The exploitationpof natural resources is also their
responsibility.
Strengthening: In the soviet union time, the budget for the regular geologicalsurveyy was allocated. The comprehensivepsurveyy was carried out and thesurvey results are preserved in the paper form. By this, they have thegeological risk information all over Tajikistan. According to the interview, if
the citizen visits the department, they respond. If the villagers are very indangerg because of the landslide/mudflows,, theyy recommend the resettlement.
The staffs of the department have geology background from their education sothat they understand the risk situation very well.
Weakness: After Tajikistanjindependence,p
the budget
g for the regulargsurveyy
was lost. Thus, the information is not renewed regularly recently. In addition,
the database is in the paper form so that they want a project for thedigitization of the paper. They raise the name of JICA for the digitization
matter.
Recommendations: The interview gave us the impression that the department
staff are well trained in geology. They have also the database related togeology problems of Tajikistan, though it is not always renewed recently.
They need the regular budget for continuing the past continued activities.

Meeting in the Institute of geology and seismic engineering andseismology
Efforts: The Institute was established in 2011 by combining two
institutes, Institute of geology and Institute of Seismology. They
have 10 scientific laboratories and 4 technical units
units. There are
178 staff members.
Strengthening: The Institute consists of scientific/engineering
professionals. They have cooperation with researchers of China,
Germany, Norway, France, USA, Russia, Kirgiz and othercountries. It seems that the earthquake research is strong.
Weakness: The institute is a good research institute. It seems
that there are many excellent researchers. However, for the Ph.D,
according to the interview, Tajikistan people generally first carryout there Ph.D research after Master degree and the Ph.D
dissertation is accepted by Russian counterpart. If the country
have their own Ph.D system, that would be more the strength.
Recommendations: From the history, the institute people canspeak Russian, one of the UN languages. However, most ofother country professional need to communicate them in English.
I wish the Institute opens the door also for Japan by using
English.

Meeting in Research Center of SCLUG
Efforts: RC SCLUG has carried out very nice qualitative
mudflow/landslide hazard mapping using partially the budget of
ADRC. RC SCLUG consists of 3 laboratories. There are around20 staff members.
Strengthening: RC SCLUG have obtained the know-how how
to make the narrative based (or qualitative) mudflow/landslide
hazarda a d maps.
aps. Theyey haveave chosenc ose arounda ou d 200 settlements
se e e s in Rudaki
udaDistrict and carry out the risk assessment by communicating theleaders of those settlements.
Weakness:Wk
RC SCLUG have
h
done
d
what
h t isi possible
ibl now, ii.e.
making the qualitative hazard map. As the next step, it isexpected that more scientific aspect is added to their hazard map.
But the necessityy was mentioned byy Mr. Alisho,, RC SCLUG.
Thus, they recognize what needed. Also, my impression was that
20 staff members are not necessarily enough.
Recommendations:Rd ti
It iis worth
th notingti thatth t theyth havehappliedli d tot
ADRC funding, received it and carry out the risk assessment of
20 villages. Such effort is expected to continue further. I would
encourageg RC SCLUG for the continuous challenges.
g One
request maybe that they should organize the presentations of
their activities better using like Powerpoint, otherwise people
may underestimate their achievement.

Overall Review at the Workshop
Current Efforts in Mitigating/Reducing
gg
g Risk on Flood Disasters. Especiallypy in the field of
Risk Assessment & Hazard Mapping:
The governmental bodies such as the Authority of Rudaki district, RC SCLUG, theinternational organizations such as UNDP and the NGOs (e.g. Focus humanitarian activities)
are doing their best on each level for the flood/landslide disaster mitigation. The cooperation
among them and the stakeholders are also well seen by the interview. Many of the stakeholders
well understand the disaster situation of their country. They carry out the risk assessment now
qualitatively/partially-quantitatively and are preparing the hazard map. It seems that the biggest
problem lies in the budget constraints. They do not have enough money to further carry out thescientifici tifi riski k assessment.
t NeedlessN dl tot say, taking
t ki hardh d countermeasure
t
(e.g.
(
bank
b k enforcement,ft
mud control dam etc.) is more difficult since it is generally much more expensive. The
urgent/emergency risk management by qualitative hazard mapping (by e.g. RC SCLUG/Focus)
is the activities of the current stage in the country.
country

Overall Review at the Workshop
Strengthening:St
th i
The Tajik professionals recognize disaster problems and understand the basic mechanisms ofthe disaster. Some pilot projects, grass-root/community level activities already show somesuccesses forf theth disasterdi t mitigation.
iti tiFor
F example,l RC SCLUG/Focus
SCLUG/F
hhave alreadyl d somecases of qualitative/partially-quantitative land slide/mud flow hazard mapping. The villagers
also try to protect their properties by making the mud control dam, mudflow diversion
channels etc.
channels,
etc by themselves.
themselves In other word,
word the villagers do recognize the risks.
risks According to
the Rudaki district/Department of Geology, Tajik people band together at the emergency
situation. This is, according to them, the culture of Tajikistan. These positive attitude isconsidered the strength of Tajikistan.
Tajikistan Also,
Also the researchers of the Institute of geology,
geologyearthquake engineering and seismology, Academy of Science and RC SCLUG are motivatedand have good potential.
Points to Be Considered for Further Improvement:
The local vulnerable people needs the emergency response since the risk is exactly in front ofthem. However, to correct the objective data (e.g. rainfall, land movement, river water level,
di hdischarge,lland
d use, soil
il ttype etc.)t ) ini addition
dditi mustt beb considered
id d more seriously.
i l If those
th
data
d t
already exists from Soviet Union time, it should be digitized as indicated by the Department of
Geology (DoG). DoG expresses their interest to JICA for this matter. Moreover, thoughauthorities can explain what is happening in their land and they understand basic mechanismsof the disaster, the outside experts can not properly understand the situation since those data or
documentation are not often indicated.

Overall Review at the Workshop
Fi di andFindingdR
Recommendationsd i
off Reviewer:
R i
The recommendations are summarized as follows;(1) To obtain the understanding of the international society as well as the funding, Tajikistan needs to estimate the number ofvillages/peopleill/l att riski k even roughly.
hl AlsoAl theyth needd tot estimate
ti t theth amountt off budgetb d t theyth need,d firstfi t off all,ll forf theth soft
ft measures
as the hazard mapping project of RC SCLUG. It seems that taking the hard countermeasure budget (e.g. bank enforcement) forlarge region of Tajikistan at risk is not so easy, thus the soft measure activities are needed.
(2) Making hazard maps, firstly by possible ways such as the example of RC SCLUG and Focus is important. In the later stage you
can think of more scientificallyy elaborated hazard map.
p(3) More effective and wide hazard map distribution like in the developed countries should be considered more.
(4) Though the hazard mapping activity focuses on initiative persons of the villages, carrying out the disaster education on children issometimes considered more effective. There is an instance in Japan that children behave sometimes more properly than adult in thedisaster situation.
(5) After the emergency countermeasures such as the hazard mapping based on narrative methods, the collection of
objective/scientific data by regular monitoring (e.g. rainfall, land movement, river water level, discharge, etc.) should beconsidered more seriously. This is necessary for the future forecasting challenges. Note is that the partially quantitative hazard
mapping based on GPS is carried out by Focus.
(6) TheTh cooperation
ti withith meteorologistt
l i t andd hydrologist
h d l i t was nott shownhtot us thisthi time.
ti
The
Th rainfall
i f ll information
i f
ti is
i very importantit t forfthe prevention of the rain-induced mudflow and landslide.
(7) The evacuation exercise should be done in many villages periodically.
(8) Fund raising is important for the disaster mitigation by finding the occasion as ADRC this time. SATREPS, e.g. is a chance which
can enable some scientific activities for the disaster mitigation.
mitigation(9) Tajikistan should give more opportunity of the higher education on young motivated Tajik citizen at Universities. This may in the
future reduce the cost necessary for, e.g risk assessment, hazard mapping, disaster education especially regarding the mattersrequiring computers. Educated Tajikistan young will work much better than the outside expert who does not know Tajikistan well.
((10)) Reflection of ppast reviews is needed as much as ppossible (e.g.
( g byy ADRC last time).
) Tajikistanjneed to have, what is called, PDCA
(Plan, Do, Check, Action) cycle, i.e. the adaptive management.
(11) They need to make the materials for the better recognition of the international society about the disaster problems of Tajikistan.
More record, photo and data accumulation are needed. The release in English also should be considered more seriously in the
future.