ASIAN DISASTER REDUCTION CENTER
VISITING RESEARCHER 2022

SEISMIC MONITORING, SEISMIC HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT AND
EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION AS A PARTOF SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION
Ani Gevorgyan
Head of Complex Department for Seismic Hazard Assessment,
Regional Survey for Seismic Protection,
Ministry of Emergency Situations,
Republic of Armenia,
TEL: (+374 93) 53 35 23,
Email: ani_gevorkjan@mail.ru

Kobe − 2023

Disclaimer
This report was compiled by an ADRC visiting researcher (VR) from ADRC member countries.
The views expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the ADRC. The
boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps in the report also do not imply
official endorsement or acceptance by the ADRC.

CONTENTS❖ GENERAL INFORMATION OF ARMENIA AND JAPAN❖ DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN ARMENIA❖ DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN JAPAN❖ SEISMIC MONITORING, SEISMIC HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT AND EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

IMPLEMENTATION AS A PART OF SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN ARMENIA❖ SEISMIC MONITORING, SEISMIC HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT AND EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
IMPLEMENTATION AS A PART OF SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN JAPAN❖ CONCLUSION

General information of Republic of Armenia

Source: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Official name

Republic of Armenia (RA), briefly – Armenia

Name in official language

Hayastani Hanrapetutyun, briefly – Hayastan

Head of the State

President

Legislative power

Unicameral National Assembly

Official language

Armenian (is part of Indo-European family of languages)

Capital

YerevanAdministrative and territorial unit

Marz (total number of 10), communities (total number of 502)
Including: Urban: 49, in which Yerevan with its 12 administrative
districts

National currency

Dram (international currency code - AMD)

Territory

29.74 thousand square km

Population

3.0 Million

Neighboring countries

North - Georgia
South - Iran
East - Azerbaijan
South-West - Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan)
West – Turkey

The highest peak

Aragats mountain - 4090 m

The lowest altitude

Debed river canyon - 375 m

The greatest extent

from North-West to South-East comprises 360 km from West to
East 200 km 65 km

Regionnorth latitudes of subtropics

Climate4 seasonsdry, continental

Time zone

Greenwich mean time + 4 hours

General information of Japan

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo

Official nameJapan

Name in official language

日本国, Nippon-koku or Nihon-koku

The Anthem"Kimigayo"

CapitalTokyo

National language

National language Japanese

Government

Unitary parliamentary constitutional monarchy- Emperor

Akihito- Prime Minister

Shinzō Abe

Administrative and territorial unit

Region (total number of 8), Prefecture (total number of 47)

National currency

Yen (international currency code - JPY)

Territory

377.944 square km

Population

125.50 Million

Highest point

Mount Fuji 3776 m

Lowest point

Hachiro-gata 4 m

Natural resources

Negligible mineral resources, fish the largest consumers of fish
and tropical timber, contributing to the depletion of theseresources in Asia and elsewhere

Climate4 seasons
Humid subtropicalSouth: subtropical climate
North: subarctic climate

Time zone

Greenwich mean time + 9 hours

DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN ARMENIA
The loss caused by different types of disasters in Armenia

Spitak Destructive Earthquake
December 7, 1988 at 07:41:22.7 GMT (11:41:22.7 local time)

Underestimat
ed seismic
hazardSource: WWW Google.am. Images. Spitak Earthquake 1988

Source: WWW Google.am. Images. Spitak Earthquake 1988

The most devastating seismic event was the 1988 Spitak earthquake inArmenia that killed 25,000 people, injured 15,000, left 517,000 people
homeless, caused significant damage to several cities, and resulted indirect economic losses of $14.2 billion.

Wrongbehavior ofthepopulation

The mainreasons of
the losses

Governmental
bodiesweren’t able
to organize
the rescue
works in time
Source: WWW Google.am. Images. Spitak Earthquake 1988

Source: WWW Google.am. Images. Spitak Earthquake 1988

Structuresdesign andconstruction
errorsRegional Survey for Seismic Protection

Complex Department
for Seismic Hazard
Assessment

Department ofObservation Networkand Monitoring

Department of Work
with Population

RSSP develops various means for earthquake disaster management:❖ Develops the basic directions of state policy in the field of seismic protection;❖ Provides seismic risk assessment;❖ Coordinates activities performed in the field of seismic risk reduction in the territory of the RA;❖ Organizes preparedness and training of the population to cope with strong earthquakes;❖ Coordinates and controls the execution of the state programs in the field of seismic risk.

Department ofEarthquake EngineeringLaws and regulations
Seismic Protection activities are regulated by a number of laws and legislative acts and national programs of the Republic of
Armenia after Spitak 1988 Earthquake:

Law of Republic of Armenia
The Law of the Republic of Armenia on Seismic Protection

2002

Resolutions of Government
The Complex Program of Seismic Risk Reduction in the Territory of Armenia

1999

The complex program of seismic risk reduction in Yerevan city

1999

Regulation
Regional Survey for Seismic Protection

2017

Other normative documents, regulating organization of seismic protection have been also developed. Some of them are as follows:❖ New seismic building codes;❖ Principles of Seismic Microzoning;❖ Instruction on conducting of observations in seismic, geophysical and other stations;❖ The procedure of the expert analysis and providing the information about earthquake threat to the Government of RА.

Disaster Management Strategy based on the Hyogo Framework of Action and Sendai Framework for DRR
MES develops National DRR Strategy, Crisis Management Centers and National Disaster Observatory. Armenia has
also registered a progress in the implementation of HFA, and among the key developments towards establishment ofdecentralized DRR system has been decree of the MES on appointment of Heads of MES Regional Representations as HFA
implementation focal points at the country 11 regional (marz) level.
Crisis Management Centers in Yerevan

Source: MES websites

Crisis Management Centers in in Marzes

DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN JAPANJapan is located in the Circum-Pacific Volcanic Belt or “Ring of Fire” where
seismic and volcanic activities occur constantly. Nearly 12.6% of the world’s
earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater have occurred in or around Japan.

Source: Data USGS

In

addition,

becauseofgeographical,

topographical and meteorological conditions, thecountry is subject to frequent natural disasters such as
typhoons, torrential rains and heavy snowfalls, as wellas earthquakes and tsunami.

Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake or Kobe earthquake
January 17, 1995, at 05:46 JST (16 January at 20:46 UTC)

This was Japan's worst earthquake in the 20th
century after the Great Kanto earthquake in 1923,

which claimed 140,000 lives. Approximately 6,434
people lost their lives, about 4,600 of them werefrom Kobe. It caused approximately ten trillion yen($100 billion) in damage.

Source: WWW Google.ru. Images. Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake

Great East Japan Earthquake or Tohoku earthquake
March 11, 2011, 14:46 JST (05:46 UTC)The Great East Japan Earthquake was themost powerful known earthquake ever tohave hit Japan, and one of the five mostpowerful earthquakes in the world overallsince modern record-keeping began in 1900.
On 10 March 2015, a Japanese National
Police Agency report confirmed 15.894
deaths, 6.152 injured, and 2,562 people
missing across twenty prefectures, as well as
228.863 people living away from their homein either temporary housing or due topermanent relocation.
Source: https://www.npa.go.jp/english/Statistics.html

The earthquake triggered powerful tsunami
waves, which reached heights of up to 40.5
meters (133 ft) in Miyako in Tohoku's Iwate
Prefecture, and which in the Sendai area
travelled up to 10 km (6 mi) inland.
Source: WWW Google.ru. Images. Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake

In addition to loss of life anddestruction of infrastructure, thetsunami caused a number ofnuclear accidents, primarily theongoing level 7 meltdowns atthree reactors in the Fukushima I
Nuclear Power Plant complex,
and the associated evacuation
zones affecting hundreds ofthousands of residents.
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Laws and regulations

In order to applying to all of the disaster phases of
prevention, mitigation and preparedness, emergency response
as well as recovery and rehabilitation, relevant laws andregulations were enacted. It is a national priority to protect
national land as well as citizens’ lives, livelihoods, and property
from natural disasters.

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management

Disaster Management
Cabinet Office, which is responsible for securing
cooperation and collaboration among related governmentorganizations in wide-ranging issues, the Director-General for
Disaster Management is mandated to undertake the planningof basic disaster management policies and response tolargescale disasters, as well as conduct overall coordination.

The Basic Disaster Management Plan is a comprehensive and longterm disaster management plan forming a foundation for the Disaster
Management Operations Plan and Local Disaster Management Plan. It
stipulates provisions for the establishment of the disaster management
system, promotion of disaster management measures, acceleration ofpost disaster recovery and reconstruction measures, and promotion ofscientific and technological research on disaster management.

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management

Asian Disaster Reduction Center
The Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) was established in Kobe, Hyogo Prefecture, in July 1998, with the following mission andobjectives: to enhance disaster resilience of the member countries, to build safe communities, and to create a society where sustainable
development is possible.

ADRC Visiting Researcher Program

Source: ADRCSEISMIC MONITORING, SEISMIC HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT AND EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
IMPLEMENTATION AS A PART OF SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN ARMENIA
Seismic Networks

6 High performance, compact, medium-motion broadband 6TD
seismometers
6 High performance, low noise, compact, broadband 3T seismometers
6 High performance, low noise, compact, broadband 5T accelerometers
Vayk array 5 short period (Z comp.) and 1 broad-band STS2
1 Nanometrics Broadband Sensor Trillium 240

Source: RSSPOperative Estimation and Notification of Earthquake Parameters“On January 19 at 09:55 local time (at 05:55
by GMT), the Seismological Network of theRegional Survey for Seismic Protection of the

MES of the RA recorded an earthquake at thenorthern latitude 38.37⁰ and eastern longitude
44.81⁰ geographic coordinates (20 km northfrom the city of Salmas, Iran), with 4.6
magnitude and 10 km depth. The tremor
measured magnitude 6 points at the epicenterarea.
The earthquake was felt in the town of Agarak
in Syunik Province with 2-3 points intensity.”.
Source: https://www.emsc-csem.org/

Source: RSSP, MES, EMSC

Seismic Hazard Maps

Seismic Hazard Map of the territory of the Republic of
Armenia at the scale of 1:500.000 was prepared by probabilistic

assessment for 500 m/s velocity of shear wave propagation insoils within the RA area and 475 year return period,
corresponding to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

The new seismic hazard map of the territory of the
Republic of Armenia at a scale of 1:500,000 was approved by
the order of the Minister of Emergency Situations of the

Republic of Armenia and is a regulatory legal act.

Source: Final report “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Republic of Armenia”

SEISMIC MONITORING, SEISMIC HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT AND EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
IMPLEMENTATION AS A PART OF SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN JAPANSeismic Networks

Seismometers - 1800 stations

Seismic intensity meters - 4400 stations

Source: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01250-x

Information about Earthquake❖

1.5 min − Seismic Intensity Information❖ After 5 min − Provides 2 types of information
1. Earthquake and Seismic Intensity Information❖❖

After 3 min − Earthquake Information

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

2. Information on Seismic Intensity at each site.

After 15 min − Estimated Seismic Intensity Distribution Maps

Seismic Hazard Maps
The Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan consist of two types of maps different in nature:

1. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps that combine long-term probabilistic evaluations of earthquake occurrence and strong motion
evaluation,
2. Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults (also referred to as Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps), which are based onstrong motion evaluation for scenarios assumed for specific earthquakes.

Source: https://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/

Earthquake Early Warnings System
Early Warning Dissemination Mechanism

Early Warnings System system provides advanceannouncement of the estimated seismic intensities
and expected arrival time of principal motion.
This information is based on the estimatedhypocenter and magnitude of the earthquake quickly
calculated from the P-wave data obtained at seismic
stations near the epicenter. The P-wave is alongitudinal wave that propagates 6-7 km/s throughthe earth's crust, while the S-wave is a transverse wavethat propagates 3.5-4 km/s through the earth's crust,
arriving later and causing the more severely
destructive phenomena. The time lag between the Pwave and the S-wave can make it possible to mitigate
earthquake damage by enabling disaster prevention
actions to be taken before the major shaking begins(when the S-wave arrives).

Source: https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/how.pdf

Communication System for Early Warning and Evacuation Order to the people at Risk

The information issued by the JMA is conveyed toprefectures via local meteorological observatories, theFire and Disaster Management Wireless Networks, orregional satellite communications networks, and thenconveyed to municipalities via prefectural systems.

Municipalities have established their own disastermanagement wireless networks that enable authorities
to directly transmit warnings and evacuation orders toresidents. The most frequently used tools fordisseminating information to the very end users, theresidents, are simultaneous wireless communications
systems used with outdoor loudspeakers or indoor
private radio receivers.

Source: https://www.bousai.go.jp/kokusai/kyoryoku/pdf/soukikeikai.pdf

CONCLUSION
As large-scale natural disasters continue to occur around the world, there is a serious and growing need to improve natural disaster early warning
capabilities. For natural disaster early warning systems to be truly useful in mitigating disasters for those who are facing natural disaster risks, they need to:✓

Enable the issuance of prompt and accurate early warning information based on more accurate, real-time measurements of various natural phenomena
and scientific data analysis✓

Incorporate systems for sharing warning information among relevant organizations and disseminating it to residents.

✓

Incorporate disaster reduction awareness outreach and education activities to ensure that more timely and appropriate disaster reduction actions aretaken based on the warning information issued.

It is very necessary and important:✓

Information Sharing Among Relevant Organizations. The development of a quick and accurate communications system is essential to the effective useof early warning information.

✓

Partnering with the Telecommunications Industry. Given the usefulness of mobile phones and the Internet in information distribution, and thus incrisis management and information exchange at the individual level, efforts are being made to actively promote practical applications for the vast arrayof information technologies that have been developed in recent years.
✓

Disaster Awareness. Outreach to reduce disaster-related damage, it is important to make residents of at-risk areas aware of safe evacuation methods
and nearby evacuation routes and sites ahead of time so that they will take appropriate actions based on early warning information.

✓

Use of Hazard Maps. Municipalities have to create and distribute hazard maps that show the are as most vulnerable to earthquakes as well as
evacuation information.

EEWs provide advance notice of estimated seismic intensities and expected arrival times of principal motion just after an earthquake occurs. The elapsed time
between the issuance of the EEW and the start of major shaking will differ significantly depending on a location's distance from the epicenter. EEWs may not
be issued in time to areas located just above the hypocenter of an inland earthquake. However, when a large earthquake occurs near an ocean trench, there
may be a time lag, albeit a very short one (ten seconds to several tens of seconds), between the issuance of the EEW and the start of severe shaking. This may
be just enough time to mitigate damage by triggering emergency stops on trains, plant operations, and elevators, or even just by allowing people to take basic
risk-reduction actions, such as extinguishing flames or taking cover under a desk.

To ensure that the best response measures possible are being taken against natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, and torrential
rainstorms, we need to conduct accurate and widespread observations of phenomena occurring all over the world and to use those results to develop better
policies. For example, in an effort to achieve a system for disaster crisis management that uses earth observation satellites Japan is striving to cooperate andform ties with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region while actively striving to develop a Disaster Management Support System in the Asia Pacific Region.

Recommendation❖ To improve the earthquakes monitoring system, in particular, to create a single interconnected system between the RSSP and
the research institutes of the RA.
❖ Create on the earthquakes warning system using the Internet and mobile phones.
❖ Create a network of seismic intensity meters stations in ArmeniaありがとうございますՇՆՈՐՀԱԿԱԼՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ

Source: Aeypix/Shutterstock

Source: Serouj Ourishian - wikipedia