Special Feature:

Political dynamics
in the Indo-Pacific13“Free and open Indo-Pacific” in Japanese diplomacy

20

Continue building “success stories” in the Indo-Pacific: The key is strengthening connectivity

28

Questions on the “improvement” of Japan-China relations

36

Understanding “strategic autonomy” of Modi administration

42

Indo-Pacific... for whom? ASEAN’s expectations and anxieties

The Indo-Pacific region is the next strategic arena of international politics. What are the relationships between
Japan’s “free and open Indo-Pacific strategy” and countries such as India, ASEAN countries, China, and the US?
The author explains the diplomatic strategies of each country and examines the new international order.
Hiroshi Nakanishi (Kyoto University)
Realizing “free and open Indo-Pacific” is tantamount to spreading Japan’s success stories in Southeast Asia to thewider region. MOFA’s head of South Asia Division talks about this issue
Shigeki Takizaki (MOFA)The so-called “improvement” of Japan-China relations is only a return to a neutral position from a negative
relationship. There are still various important challenges that needs to be dealt with. The author analyzes thesituation from the perspective of bilateral diplomacy and the formation of international order.
Shin Kawashima (University of Tokyo)
While Modi administration promoted Make in India policy, it fluctuated over the decision on whether or not to accept
Chinese investment. India’s diplomacy has a unique logic different from “nonalignment” and the strategic role of Japan.
Toru Ito (National Defense Academy)
Is the “Indo-Pacific” a concept to “restrain China”? Analyzing various arguments allows one to see a common
question - “Indo-Pacific for whom”?
Mie Oba (Tokyo University of Science)

Trend 2018
6

Cover Story Interview: Now is the time for “diplomacy” to retake the center stage
Yasushi Akashi (Chairman, International House of Japan)

54

Political divide goes to the extreme: America’s political base revealed by the midterm election
US midterm election in November was held in a political climate of extreme divide. This article summarizes themidterm election that had the participation level of presidential elections from the vantage point of being in the US
and looks forward to the next presidential election.
Toshihiro Nakayama (Keio University)

60

Basis for Trump administration’s hardline towards China

64

Third year’s the charm for Japan-US trade friction?

70

Disappearance of discretion from the foreign policy of Moon administration

The policy that lead to the “US-China trade war” seems to be borne out directly from the President’s fierce
statements. While they seem to have some sort of a scenario in mind, no one knows how this will end. This article
reconsiders the meaning of a free trade order and analyzes what’s to come.
Naoatsu Aoyama (Asahi Shimbun)
A strong demand for trade negotiations has been made in rapid succession. We are at the crossroad to stay thecourse or go back to the era of controlled trade. Will the honeymoon between Japan-US relationship finally come toan end? What are the “tactics” of Trump administration and the strategy of Abe administration?
Mikio Sugeno (Nikkei Shimbun)
While the South-North relationship has moved forward as stated in its policy promises, ROK’s relationships withJapan and US are becoming mixed. What impact will Moon administration’s policy that could derail Japan-US-ROK
trilateral coordination have on the situation in Northeast Asia?
Katsumi Sawada (Mainichi Shimbun)

DIPLOMACY

Vol.52, Nov. /Dec. 2018
Contents of Features

78

The impact of US withdrawal from INF Treaty

82

Politics in “post-independence” Southern Africa has been set in motion

86“Anger” of the Brazilian society that lead to the new President Bolsonaro

90

The problem of plastic waste in ocean is “adrift”

96

Japan, Russia, and the UN are cooperating on solving the drug problem in Afghanistan

INF Treaty has had a symbolic meaning, signifying the end of Cold War structure. What will be the impact of Trumpadministration’s withdrawal of INF Treaty without the deployment of nuclear weapons? Are there ways to assure
nuclear disarmament in a post-INF Treaty world?
Taku Ishikawa (National Defense Academy)
New presidents in South Africa and Zimbabwe show that politics in Southern Africa is in transition. The author
examines a new era, following the leadership of heroes that lead national liberation, where each country is facing asimilar challenge of searching for new legitimacy to lead.
Yoichi Mine (Doshisha University)
Another man who acts and speaks in an authoritarian manner and touts putting its country first above all else hasbecome the leader, this time in Brazil. A detailed analysis of voter behavior reveals that political corruption and thedivision of society is at its core.
Akiko Koyasu (Sophia University)
Plastic waste in the ocean is attracting attention for its effect on the ecosystem. It is critical to learn from the past
frameworks dealing with environmental problems to determine how far the regulations should go.
Michikazu Kojima and Fusanori Iwasaki (ERIA)
There has been a sharp increase in opium production in Afghanistan. Japan is cooperating with the internationalsociety in various ways, including the training of narcotics investigators.
Hideki Hosaka (UNODC)

Focus: It’s now or never for climate change
100 Strategies for COP24: Be the leader in expanding green business“Green business” is rapidly expanding following the Paris Agreement. International competition over this new business
opportunity has already begun. What kind of strategy should Japan employ in this competition?
Yukari Takamura (University of Tokyo) /Hideo Suzuki (MOFA)

114 Increasing importance of “climate change” for international politics: A historical analysis

Climate change brings about natural disasters, changes in the yields of agriculture and fishing, and health problems
such as heat strokes and infectious diseases. Actions of governments under the Paris Agreement to fight global
warming will further accelerate.
Yasuko Kameyama (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

120 Business strategies to realize non-carbon society

Companies that produced horse carriages did not necessarily become automobile companies. Amidst the changes in
the international rules over CO2 emissions, will Japanese companies be able to face the competition over this new “opportunity”?
Toshihiro Kawakami (Japan-CLP / LIXIL)

126 Non-government actors will be the real force in promoting the Paris Agreement

Trump administration has turned its back on the Paris Agreement. However, other governments, local governments,and the private sectors are joining the Agreement in doves. Now is an opportune time for Japan to take a global
initiative in dealing with climate change.
Pete Ogden (Vice President for Energy, Climate, and the Environment, UN Foundation)

132 Japanese local governments are taking actions to tackle climate change
Hironori Hamanaka (ICLEI Japan)