Annex 7 – Latin America

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Trends in Latin America @2050
ScenarioAllCNF

Trends in Latin America
Market•Passenger cars and commercial vehicles: Significant increases in both new vehicles sales and inuse fleets; for motorcycles, gradual increases in new vehicle sales and in-use fleet.

Energy mix•

Share of clean energy is approximately 70%.

•Share of electrified vehicles in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types ismore than 80%, with about 50% of new passenger cars being hybrids.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 20%.

Electrifiedvehicles
Fuel mix

BEV752050/2020
CO2 emissions

Electrifiedvehicles•••

Share of biofuels + electricity + hydrogen is more than 50%.
CNF share represents approx. 40% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

•

Share of electrified vehicles in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types isalmost 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 40%.

•Fuel mix••

Share of biofuels + electricity + hydrogen is more than 60%.
CNF share represents approx. 30% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use fleets for all vehicle types is morethan 80%.

•About 90% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuel = 0%.)
Biofuel share = approx. 10% of total fuel consumption in 2020.

NZE
Fuel mix•-45% approx.

-57% approx.

-80% approx.

CO2 emission levels range between about -45% to -80% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in non-BAU scenarios are within or lower than the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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New Passenger Car Sales (Latin America)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV

PHEV
HEV
NGV
ICE

NZE

BEV75
FCEV

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New Commercial Vehicle Sales (Latin America)（x 1,000 units）

BAU

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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New Motorcycle Sales (Latin America)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEVICE

BEV75

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NZE

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In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (Latin America)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
NGV
ICE

BEV75

NZE
FCEV

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In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (Latin America)（x 1,000 units）

BAU

CNF
BEV
PHEV
HEV

ICE

BEV75

NZE
FCEV

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In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (Latin America)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

8Automotive Fuel Mix (Latin America)
BAU（In ktoe）

CNF
CNG

Electricity
BiofuelPetroleum

NZE

BEV75

Hydrogen

Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Energy Mix (Latin America)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU
RenewableenergyBiomass
Fossil fuels

Nuclear
Fossilfuels+CCS（gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (Latin America)（In ktCO2）

Note: The CNF+ scenario assumes that CNF supply is 1.25 times greater than in the CNF scenario, has a 40% (approx.) instead of 30% share (approx.) in the fuelmix and that most of the increase will be supplied to Africa, the Middle East, India, and ASEAN where the supply of decarbonized energy is a major challenge.

CO2 emission levels range between about -45% to -80% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in non-BAU scenarios are within or lower than the IPCC 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios’ -42% to -68% range.)
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