Potentiality of Multi-Pathway Approach
Toward Carbon Neutrality
Takao Aiba
Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA)
Chairperson of the International Climate Change Policy Expert GroupCopyright© Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

Who We Are?
 JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.) is a non-profit industry
association comprising Japan’s 14 manufacturers of passenger cars, trucks, buses andmotorcycles.
Established

April 3, 1967

Our Objective•

To promote the sound development of the automobile industry and contribute to social andeconomic welfare.

••Conducts studies and surveys related to automobile production, distribution, trade and use.
Assists in the rationalization of automobile production, and helps establish policy for thedevelopment, improvement and promotion of production technology.
Establishes and promotes policies related to automobile trade and international exchange.
Carries out other activities involved in meeting its organizational objectives.

Our Activities••

MemberCompanies

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Who We Are?
 JAMA member companies produce and export vehicles worldwide.
Motor Vehicle Exports By Destination In 2021

Source: JAMA

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Who We Are?
 JAMA member companies produce and export vehicles worldwide.
Motorcycle Exports By Destination In 2021

Source: JAMA

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Who We Are?
 JAMA member companies produce and export vehicles worldwide.
Geographical Distribution of JAMA Members` Overseas Production Bases

Source: JAMA

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Our Basic Concept on Carbon Neutrality
 JAMA member companies will make maximum efforts towards carbon
neutrality by 2050.
 Our goal is carbon neutrality. It is essential to understand the issue correctly.
 it is the consumer who chooses the vehicles. We believe that it is important
to maintain diverse choices for diverse customers and to expand choices
further based on technological neutrality.
 Region by region, a desirable pathway toward carbon neutrality isdifferent as energy and relevant situations are divergent.
 Based on the quantitative scenario analysis, JAMA believe that there ispotential not only for 100% BEVs, but also for a wide variety of electrified
vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs and the use of carbon-neutral fuel(CNF) for global CO2 emissions reduction in road transport to be in line with
the IPCC’s 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios.
 In such cases have its own challenges, and the automotive industry needs
to work together with all stakeholders to solve these challenges, such asincreasing renewable energy, developing charging and hydrogen refilling
infrastructure, and developing a carbon-neutral fuel supply system.
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Reginal Differences in In-Use Vehicle Fleet GrowthIn-use vehicle fleet (excluding motorcycles) growth projections〇2020 ➡ ●2050

Number of in-use vehicles per 1,000 people

1,000900
800

North America

700Japan600

Europe500400

Other Europe/Eurasia

China
Latin America

300200Middle EastIndia

ASEAN

10001Asia Pacific

Africa10100

Per capita GDP (x USD 1,000)

In-USE fleet Growth toward 2050 is remarkably different by each country/region.
Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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Regional Differences in Energy Mix
Energy Mix in India

Energy Mix in Japan（In %）（In %）

Renewableenergy
NuclearHydrogenBiomass
Energy Mix in ASEAN

Energy Mix in Middle East

（In %）（In %）

Fossil energy
with CCS**CCS: Carbon capture and storage

Fossil energy

Energy mix and its strategy is different by country/region.
Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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Scenario Based Analysis
 Taking into account different circumstances between developed and emerging
economies, JAMA commissioned the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan toanalyze three scenarios (in addition to a BAU scenario) .
BEV/FCEV Share of New Passenger Vehicle Sales

2050 Scenario
Designation & Definition

Worldwide

Advancedeconomies

Emergingeconomies

2050 Projected
CNF Share inAutomotive Fuel Mix[2020 FC*-Based]

Scenario 0 BAU1BAU

←

←

←

Scenario 1 CNF:
Wide use of CNF

40％

50%25%

30% approx.

Scenario 2 BEV75:
Wide electrified vehicle
adoption

75％

100%50%20% approx.

Scenario 3 NZE:
100% BEVs/FCEVs(IEA NZE2 scenario)

100％

100%

100%7%(biofuel only)*FC: Fuel consumption

1 BAU: “Business as usual” 2 IEA: International Energy Agency; NZE: “Net Zero Emissions by 2050”

2 IEA: International Energy Agency; NZE: “Net Zero Emissions by 2050”,

Energy mix projections in the study scenarios were based on energy mix data in IEEJ_ATS, taking into account the energy supply situation worldwide.
(IEA_NZE does not include energy mix data by country/region.)
Advanced economies: Japan; North America; Europe; etc.; Emerging economies: India; ASEAN; Africa; etc.

Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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CO2 Emissions Worldwide 2020-2050, by Scenario（KtCO2）*The range of -42% to -68% shown in this describes the upper and lower limits of a number of 1.5℃ scenarios based on the scientific findings used by the IPCCAR6.

In all three scenarios, CO2 emissions worldwide are in line with
the IPCC’s 2050 1.5℃ climate scenarios.

Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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CO2 Emissions in Advanced Economies 2020-2050, by Scenario（KtCO2）

Advanced economies EuropeJapanAll scenarios (excluding the BAU scenario) demonstrate the potential inadvanced economies for carbon neutrality in automotive transport by 2050.

Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economies 2020-2050, by Scenario
In many emerging economies, vehicle sales volumes and BAU emissions
are expected to rise significantly.

（KtCO2）

ASEAN

India

IPCC1.5:-42%～-68%*The range of -14% to -44% shown in this describes the upper and lower limits of a number of 2.0℃ scenarios based on the scientific findings used by the IPCCAR6.
Note: The CNF+ scenario assumes that CNF supply is 1.25 times greater than in the CNF scenario, has a 40% (approx.) instead of 30% share (approx.) in the fuelmix and that most of the increase will be supplied to Africa, the Middle East, India, and ASEAN where the supply of decarbonized energy is a major challenge.

A 1.25 increase in carbon-neutral fuel supply compared to the CNF scenario will make it possible for CO2emissions in emerging economies to be in line with the IPCC’s 1.5<20C scenarios for 2050.
Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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Summary of Study Findings in the analysis
Context

CO2 Emission Levels in 2050

Worldwide• Findings show that the study’s three scenarios (excluding the BAU scenario) demonstrate the potential
for global CO2 emissions reduction in automotive transport to be in line with the IPCC’s 2050 1.5oC
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate scenarios.
• The IEA’s NZE scenario is premised on one pathway towards carbon neutrality, but the JAMA study confirms that
there are other pathways, comprising a wide variety of electrified vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs andthe use of carbon-neutral fuel (CNF).

Advanced
economies• The study’s three scenarios demonstrate the potential in advanced economies for carbon neutrality in
automotive transport by 2050.
• To that end, however, in addition to decarbonized electricity, the supply of carbon-neutral fuels for in-use
vehicle fleets will be necessary.

Emergingeconomies• In many emerging economies, vehicle sales volumes are expected to rise significantly.
• If the amount of CNF in the automotive fuel mix in 2050 can be increased to a level equivalent to 40% (approx.)of global automotive fuel consumption in 2020, it will be possible for CO2 emissions in emerging economies tobe in line with the IPCC’s 1.5<2oC climate scenarios for 2050.

Source: Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality by 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis, JAMA

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Our Resolution

JAMA member companies, together with theirglobal stakeholders, will make maximum
efforts towards carbon neutrality by 2050 bydeveloping technologies to further reduce
automotive CO2 emissions so that they canprovide optimal choices for consumers incountries/regions worldwide.

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Appendix

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International comparison of CO2 emissions by automobiles

2001

Japan’s approach has been achieving more CO2 reduction
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Source: JAMAElectricity generation mix and emission intensity projection

Source: IEA The Role of Critical Mineral in Clean Energy Transition, March 2022

EU and Canada have competitive advantage in terms of low carbon electricity
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Share of selected minerals necessary for electrification

Reference: IEA WEO 2021
Source: IEA The Role of Critical Mineral in Clean Energy Transition, March 2022

Limited number of countries have significant market share
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Source: JAMA

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Source: JAMA

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Source: JAMA

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