From Green Recovery to Net-zero Society

Kazuo Matsushita
Professor Emeritus, Kyoto University
Senior Fellow, IGES
matsushita@iges.or.jp
URL: http://48peacepine.wixsite.com/matsushitakazuo

Climate Change and Covid-19
・ Climate Change and Covid-19：Important issues related to the survival of humankind
that the international community should work together on
・Deeply related to economic globalization: globalization and liberalization of people,
goods, money, and information movement seeking maximum profit

・Following SARS in 2002 and MERS in 2012, the appearance of Covid-19 for the thirdtime in 20 years is abnormal frequency. Possible changes in ecosystem due to climatechange and chaotic development, and changes in distance between humans andwildlife→ A high level of crisis awareness and effective measures are required for both problems

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Comparison of measures against Climate Change and Covid-19
Climate Change（decarbonized society）

Covid-19

commonalities• Importance of credible scientific knowledge• Necessary to change the way people work and live
• Coordinated measures by the international community are necessary• Efforts by society as a whole and large-scale fiscal spending to support them are necessary(the scale of fiscal spending is different)
Fiscal mobilization scale: Approximately 30 trillion yen / year in the world (estimated by
the IEA for 2016-2050 electricity sector decarbonization costs)

differences• Transition to sustainable energy, improvement ofenergy and resource efficiency, lifestyle that does notdepend on material consumption, and to an economic
system that contributes to higher quality of life andpeople's well-being.
• Fiscal spendings such as sustainable infrastructuredevelopment and new technology development areregarded as investment. Greater economic returns canbe expected.

Fiscal spending scale: Approximately 800 trillion yen worldwide (as ofApril 15)

differences• It is essential to avoid contact between
people, and necessary to limit
economic activities, movement ofpeople, and meetings. Maybe
necessary to sacrifice quality of life.
• Fiscal spendings to covers economic
loss (such as leave compensation) are３
economic costs.

Reduction of economic activity due to Covid-19
・ Short-term: Reduction of air pollutants
and greenhouse gas emissions (eg China)

・ Environmental improvement is temporary:
After the end of the pandemic, when
economic activity returns to normal,
emissions of pollutants and greenhousegases will also rebound.
・Economic stagnation and contraction due
to Covid-19→ Possibility of delaying implementationof climate change countermeasures.

・ Changes in economic activities and daily
life due to measures against Covid-19(telework, telecommuting, online
meetings, etc.) → new lifestyles, andwork styles with low environmental
impact.→ should be institutionalized anddiffused.

Source：NASAImprovement inNO2 pollution in China：
January1-20(left)、February10-15(right)

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CO2 emission in China: 25% reduction during lockdown (early Feb to mid-March), 5% increase in March（compared to the last year）https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-surged-past-pre-coronavirus-levels-inMay?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top

Build back better from COVID-19=Green Recovery
1. Basic direction of recovery from COVID-19(UN）- Ensure a strong and collaborative health and medical system- Mitigate the impact on life, livelihoods and the economy- Help people endure adversity, job security- Learn the lessons of the COVID-19 crisis and make transition to a more equal &inclusive society ("Build Back Better")

2. Building a "better society" = avoiding the climate crisis is essential• Green Recovery: a recovery of the economy and society damaged by the corona disaster into aresilient, environmentally friendly, decarbonized, disaster-resistant society and economy, preserving
ecosystems and biodiversity.
・Conventional economic recovery measures (support for fossil fuel-intensive industries, aviation, expansionof tourism, etc.)→ May contributes to short-term economic recovery, but long-term decarbonisation andstructural change is unlikely.
・New economic recovery measures: should simultaneously contribute to the transition to a decarbonizedsociety and the realization of the SDGs. (Low-carbon employment, renewable energy, new lifestyle
workstyles such as telework, etc.)
source：GLOBAL POLICY INITIATIVES AND OPERATIONAL RESPONSE STRATEGIES, United Nations Comprehensive Response to COVID-19: Saving Lives, Protecting Societies
and Recovering Better, June 2020, https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/un_comprehensive_response_to_covid-19_june_2020.pdf

EU: European Green Deal Making Europe the world's firstcarbon neutral continent
・ EU's New Growth Strategy to Create Jobs
While Cutting Emissions
・ Reconstruction fund, huge budget（1.8兆€：30% earmarked for climatechange）
・ European Climate Bill (Net Zero Legislationin 2050)

・ Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism
President of the European Commission
Ursula von der Leyen
www.theguardian.com～Aims to be a global Green Recovery leader～USA：What will change with President Biden?
・Back to Paris Ageement

・To realize Campaign Promises① Net zero emission of greenhouse gases
across the economy by 2050
Net zero emissions, by 2035, from power
generation② Investment for sustainable Infrastructure
and clean energy: 2 trillion US$ in 4 years③ Reinforcing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Regulations and Incentives Realization of
https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/63844④ Realization of Environmental Justice*Legislation and budget have to be approved by the Congress.

China also announced net zero by 2060
・President Xi Jinping:
At the United Nations General Assembly in
September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced
that he will aim to peak CO2 emissions by 2030
and achieve net zero carbon emission by 2060
to achieve a decarbonized society.

新華社・共同Carbon neutral & Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery:

Korean Green New Deal
・ On October 28, 2020, President Moon, in his State of the Union address, "Iwant to work with the international community to proactively address climatechange and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050".
・ On July 14, 2020, the "Korean New Deal" was released as a post-Corona
economic recovery plan.
・ 114.1 trillion won ($94.6 billion) will be invested in the "Green New
Deal" policy aimed at creating jobs in the environmental sector.
・ To break away from dependence on fossil fuels and foster environmentallyfriendly industries using digital technologies such as electric vehicles, hydrogenvehicles, and smart grids (next-generation power grid). The plan is to create 1.9
million jobs by 2025 through new projects.
source：http://www.asahi.com/international/reuters/CRWKCN24F0SY.html※Ruling Party won the election on 15 April 2020, with the Campaign Promiseof Green New Deal.
①Aim for zero carbon emissions by 2050 (first carbon neutrality in Asia)②Large-scale investment in renewable energy③Introduction of Carbon tax④Phase out of domestic and overseas coal project financing⑤Transition to green jobs

ＣＮＮco.jp

PM Suga announced carbon neutrality by 2050
・ On October 26, 2020, PM Suga declares that "by 2050, we will aim
to achieve overall net zero greenhouse gas emissions (carbonneutral) and a decarbonized society" .
・4 steps are necessary:

１） Strengthen the greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030:- At least 45% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030
2) In the revision of the Global Warming Prevention Plan and the Basic
Energy Plan:- Increase renewable energy and reduce coal and nuclear power- Increase energy efficiencyNHK3) Retreat from coal-fired power plants:- Phase out of coal-fired power generation in the country- Suspension of support for the construction of coal-fired power plants
abroad4) Carbon pricing:

Introduction of a full-scale carbon tax

From Green Revival to Net Zero Society:
Challenges of Transition
Vision for a Decarbonized Society: Japanese Version of Green Recovery- Sharing the sense of climate crisis and aiming to decarbonize the world and Japan as anational goal
- Introduce measures in all areas of society to transform to a zero-carbon, sustainableeconomy through changes in technology, social systems, and lifestyles, including shift tosustainable energy, improve resource efficiency, shift to a lifestyle independent of material
consumption, compact cities, public transportation, use of Iot/AI/ICT.

Energy conversion policy on the axis of economic recoveru
Support for labor and employment transition (just transition) in conjunction
with the decarbonization transition