International Symposium on

Sustainable Reconstruction from Super Disasters

Explanatory Introduction
趣旨説明 近年の世界の巨大震災と復興の状況
趣旨説明：近年の世界の巨大震災と復興の状況

February 22, 2012

At Sokairo-Hall,Sokairo Hall
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS),Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Dr. Tatsuo Narafu

Senior Advisor,
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Devastating
g damages
g byy the Great East Japan
pEarthquake (東日本大震災による甚大な被害東日本大震災による甚大な被害))

写真：国際協力機構

Disaster risk

(災害危険性）• Disaster risk is defined by Hazard, Vulnerabilityand Management capacity （災害危険性は、自然（災害危険性は 自然
災害、脆弱性、対応力によって変化する）• Vulnerability which led to devastating
damage by the Great East Japan EQ are not
only
y the hugeg hazard but also;- large population living the tsunami prone
area- properties and industries accumulated(東日本大震災による甚大な被害の要因の一つ：津波危険地域 の人、物、業務の蓄積）
地域への人、物、業務の蓄積）• Vulnerability and management capacity
diffdiffers
ffrom country
t tto countrytReduction of future disaster risk
将来の災害危険性の低減の取り組み
将来の災害危険性の低減の取り組み• We can reduce future risk by- increasing management capacity- reducing vulnerability（将来（将来の災害危険性は、脆弱性の減少と防災能力の向上により実現する）
害危険性
脆弱性 減少 防 能力 向実現す ）• Reconstruction phase provides critical opportunity tobuild up more resilient society (build back better) withlessons learned from latest experiencesp（災害復興は、将（災害復興将来の災害危険性低減の極めて貴重な機会）• Vulnerability, management capacity and possibilityof reduction of future disaster risk is different fromcountry to country reflecting its social andeconomical conditions (脆弱性、防災能力、将来の災害危険性(低減は、各国の経済社会条件により異なる)• Comparison of super-disasters in different socioeconomical conditions allows us to understandb tt （近年の巨大災害を比較することにより、災害、将来の防災betterについての深い理解が期待できる）

Comparison of recent super‐super‐disasters
本シンポジウムの趣旨：近年の巨大災害とその復興状況についての比較• Reports on recent super-disasters and reconstruction（近年の世界の巨大災害についての報告）- 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake- 2010 Haiti Earthquake- 2008 Wenchuan- 2004 Indian Ocean EQ and tsunami- 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ• Presentation on viewpoints/issues for comparison（比較を行う場合の視点/側面についての提起）- reality of reconstruction from viewpoint of people
andd communityit（コミュニティの視点から見た実態）- Gender and social inclusion （ジェンダー、社会包摂）- building and urban development（建物、まちづくり）- international viewpoint
ie point（国際的な視点）• Discussion based on comparison will clarify factors
which influence vulnerability
y and management
gcapacity,
it andd constraintst i t forf reconstructiontti （比較に基（ 較 基づく議論による検討の深化を期待）

Difficulties of reconstruction
Dilemma on safety and convenience of daily life•

（復興の難しさ：安全性と利便性のジレンマなど）
Many people work in fishery and harbor （多くが漁業、港湾業務に従事）• High construction cost for new area of elevated level（高台移転のコスト）• Increasing risk of high tide caused by destruction ofdykes and subsidence （地盤沈下、堤防の崩壊による危険性）
２０１２．２ Onagawa, Miyagi (宮城県女川2012年２月)

Difficulties of reconstruction “Build back Better” is notan easy job （（“より安全なまちづくり”は、簡単ではない）
より安全なまち くり は、簡単ではない）• Urgent needs of affected people（被災者の緊急のニーズ）• Local housing supply sectors usually damaged bydisasters（住宅供給セクターの被災）• Serious
S irisksi k otherth ththan ffuturetearthquakes
thk likelik loss
loff
income, hunger, epidemic diseases etc. （被災者を悩ます
他の深刻なリスク）

Collapsedp jreconstruction project
housesHandout to audience（本日の配布資料）• Table of brief information of four countries ( Haiti,China, Indonesia, and Japan) （各国基礎情報）• Table of brief information on each of superdisasters ( 2010 Haiti, 2008 Wenchuan, 2004
Indian Ocean EQ and tsunami, 2011 Great East
Japan EQ and 1995 Hanshin-Awaji
Hanshin Awaji EQ) complied
from reports by invited speakers（巨大災害の一覧表）• Maps of super-disasters on same scale （巨大災害の地図：同一スケール）( distribution of shaking
motion intensity and tsunami attack)• Presentation materials of each of presentations（プレゼ テ シ（プレゼンテーションのスライド）の ライド）A bit from the handout（配布資料（各国基礎情報）より）• Population:（人口）Haiti 10 million – China 1.3 billion ((130 times))• GNI per capita:（一人当たりのGNI）
Haiti 1.2 thousand US$ - Japan 35 thousand US$ (30 times)• Poverty
Pt factor（incomef t （illess ththan $1$1.25）:
25） （貧困指標）
Haiti 55% - China 16% - Japan NA• Major disasters: （各国の主要な自然災害）- China, Indonesia and Japan:
pvarious disasters like earthquakes, tsunami, flood, typhoon,
volcanoes, land slides- Haiti:hurricanes, floods. Earthquakes occur far less frequent

Earthquakes for recent 30 years (1977-2007)(1977 2007)10

Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo

災害比較 図面
• 地図により災害のスケールを比較
図
害比較

A bit from the handout（配布資料（各国基礎情報）より）
Super‐disastersp2010
Haiti

2008
China

2004
Indonesia

2011 EastJapan1995
HanshinMagnitude

7.0

7.9

9.1

9.0

6.9

Intensity ofExtremely
strong (10)Severeshaking motion

Extremely
strong (10)(Soloview: 4)Extremely
strong (JMA:7)

Extremely
strong (JMA:7)

Major cause ofdamage

Groundshaking

Groundshaking

TsunamiTsunamiGroundshaking

Dead/missingg
Injured (thousand)

230
10088375221‐196644

Buildings(thousand)CompletepPartial

105
208

Total 4,140237

128705112535

EconomicallossRemarkable respects/aspects of each super
super‐‐disasters
各巨大災害の特徴的な事項
2010 Haiti- Extreme vulnerability of construction – poor materials
and workmanship, very long return period of earthquakes
etc. （ハイチ：構造物の際立った脆弱性）•2008 China- Vulnerability of structures attains to poor enforcement ofbuilding codes especially for rural buildings and low level of
expected scale of earthquake- The framework of “”one province to one county” workswell•（中国：基準の執行と低めの想定災害による構造物の脆弱性、“非被災の省が、被災県 支援被災県を支援”が有効に機能）
有効 機能）

2004 Indonesia- Far reaching damage by the tsunami to Thailand,
Thailand Sri
Lanka, India and even far to eastern Africa- No early warning system of tsunami in Indian Oceancaused serious- Friction with anti-central
anti central government group eased•（インドネシア：広大な地域への津波被害、津波警報システムンの未整備、反政府勢力との融和）

Remarkable respects/aspects of each supersuper‐‐disasters各
巨大災害の特徴的な事項•1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake （阪神淡路大震災）- Preparedness for super-disasters was not enough（巨大災害への対策が不十分）- Revision of seismic design code for infrastructures wasrequire（土木構造物の耐震基準の見直し）- Retrofitting-reinforcing
gg of old sub-standard
b ildibuildings/houses/hwas recognized
i d urgentt （旧基準の古い建物の補強の必要性）- Special attention and care is recognized necessary tovulnerable ppeople
p such as disabled,, sick p
persons,, elderly,y,foreigners etc.（災害弱者への配慮）- Keeping ties/human relations of communities isimportant in reconstruction (コミュニティの維持)- Psychological care/trauma is found important （こころのケア）

2011 East Japan Earthquake （東日本大震災）- Gap between pre-disaster assumption and the actual
hazard emerged （想定された以上の災害の発生）- The way/system of tsunami warning should be improved•（津波警報の発令方法の改善）- Disaster management for super-disasters needs to bereviewed fundamentally（巨大災害への対策の抜本的な見直し）

Different Aspects of Reconstruction
復興に関する側面（今回の企画 準備を通じて認識したこと）
復興に関する側面（今回の企画、準備を通じて認識したこと）•Aspects which could be reconstructed in short period
g , infrastructures,, etc.
- buildings,（比較的確実に実行できるハード施設の復興）•Aspects which need longer period
in case of the Hanshin-Awaji
Hanshin Awaji Earthquake（長期間を要する復興：阪神淡路大震災の事例から）-ppeoplep who lost their families become old and havedifficulties
diffi
lti tot live
li without
ith t supportt（家族を失った被災者の高齢化、要介護化）- contract of rental houses for reconstruction pprojectjwill
tterminate
i t ini severall years, whichhi h will
ill result
lt affected
ff t d peoplellive there will have to leave for new houses（借り上げ復興住宅の期限の終了）- local manufacturers still suffer from large debts which theyborrow to reconstruct their factories after the disaster（被災時の借入金による企業経営の圧迫）- Kobe harbor lost its customers during reconstructionperiod and could not recover until now, which result less job
opportunities of harbor workers（神戸港のシェア低迷による経済、雇用への影響）

International cooperation

国際協力• International cooperation
pin emergency
gy response
pand recovery becomes usual（緊急援助、応急対応についての国際協力は一般化）• International cooperation in prevention/reductionof future risks is expected（今後、災害予防についての国際協力が期待される）“P“Preventionti
isi betterb tt thanthcure”(予防は治療にまさる)