PROPOSAL ON DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN OF SAUDI ARABIABASED ON EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE ESTIMATION OF TABUK CITYSupervisor: Kenji Okazaki *AL-HASAWI Abdulrahman
MEE06004

Abstract
In this study, the earthquake damage in Tabuk city in Saudi Arabia, which is prone to earthquake
disaster, has been estimated by using the RADIUS (Risk Assessment tool for Diagnosis of Urban
Areas against Seismic Disaster) program regarding two proposed scenario earthquake, withmagnitude 7.3 and magnitude 7.8 and the epicenter distance of about 190 km as same as AlAqaba Earthquake (magnitude 7.3) in 1995, which caused severe damage to the area. The resultshows that the number of causalities will be approx. 1,460, injured 14,700, and that 49,800
buildings, 33 % of the total buildings, will be damaged because many old buildings lack seismic
design. Based on the damage estimation, the earthquake damage scenario of Tabuk city has been
also developed. Then, this study reviewed the government disaster management plans in Saudi
Arabia, taking into consideration the result of damage estimation and damage scenario of theTabuk city. In addition, the author made recommendations for the government. Saudi Arabia
government needs to review the disaster management plans, and all the government authorities
should be prepared for a potential earthquake in the near future.

Introduction
Saudi Arabia is an earthquake prone country, which has been hit by strong earthquakes in the past.
As it will be also stricken by some major earthquakes in near future, Saudi Arabia should beprepared for such disasters and make every effort to reduce the probable damage. Hence, thisstudy aims to review the government disaster management plans of Saudi Arabia, taking into
consideration the damage estimation and the earthquake damage scenario of Tabuk city andmake recommendations for the government to prepare for future probable disasters. The RADIUS
program is used for damage estimation of Tabuk city.

Methodology
The RADIUS Tool is a computer program running on the widely available Excel. The user needs
to input some basic information such as area and population by district, the number of buildings,
building types and their distribution, ground conditions (soil type), lifeline facilities (optional).
After the choice of a scenario earthquake and its parameters, the program then validates the input
data and performs analysis. Figure 1 shows the general flow of earthquake damage estimation.
Scenario
Earthquake

Earthquake
HazardDemographic

GroundCondition

Data
Inventory&Vulnerability

DamageEstimation

Earthquake DisasterReduction Planning(Preparedness)(Emergency Response)(Recovery)

Figure 1. General flow of earthquake damage estimation (RADIUS program)*

Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policies Studies (GRIPS)

RADIUS Application for TABUK City
Tabuk city is located in north west of Saudi Arabia. It was hit by Al- Aqaba Earthquake withmagnitude 7.3 in 1995. The epicenter was about 190 km away from the city. Fortunately, damage
was small as the city was a small city at that time. In the future, however, Tabuk city which is
now a big city with population of approx. 280,000, will be seriously damaged by a big earthquake.
The indication for future tells that the next one could be a devastating earthquake with magnitudeof more than 7.5 and would hit Tabuk area.
However, among the decision makers and the government officers in Tabuk city, there is a preconceived idea that Tabuk is relatively safe with respect to earthquakes, which leads to flexible
application of the rules. There is no focus on earthquake-related disasters in disaster management
planning, since the earthquake-related disaster is considered in a limited way.

Copyright problem

Figure 2. Location of Tabuk city

Table 2. Basic data of Tabuk city

Step 1: Basic Data Inventor
The total area of Tabuk city is (35,000 km²) is divided into 283 meshes as the built-up area of thecity is 283 km². Most of the remaining areas are farms and desert. Each mesh represents 1kmx1km (1 km²).
Step 2: Soil Amplification Setting
Soil condition of Tabuk city van beclassified into 2 kinds of soil types.
According to the available data, Northand City Center are classified as“Medium soil” while the other areas areclassified as “Unknown”.

CodeDescription

01Unknown
Hard Rock234

Soft R ock
Medium S oil
Soft Soil

Table 2. Soil type description
Step 3: Structure inventory setting
The buildings types of Tabuk city are classified as shown in Table 3. There are a number ofhouses very old and weak, made from mud and stone, but nobody lives there any longer.
According to the RADIUS program, the buildings of Tabuk city are classified into 7 types ofbuilding, namely, RES2, RES3, RES4, EDU1, EDU2, MED1, and MED2 as shown in Table 4.
“Buildings with steel frame and bricks” and “Brick buildings” are usually sub-standard
construction with low quality building materials up to three stories. Therefore, they arecategorized as RES2 in this study. “RC buildings” are usually 4-6 stories, not complying with thelocal codes. Thus, they arecategorized as RES 3. As“RC with steel buildings”
are engineered buildings
with high quality ofmaterials,
theyarecategorized as RES 4.

Buld.
Loc.

Buld.
Tape
count

Steel
Frame
With
brick
concrete

RCRCwith
Steel

Brick

EDU1

EDU2

MED1

MED2

Area
Sq
Km

Pop

(5)
W

16360

4,348

3,804

2,536

5,481

120

11

13

11

55

100,000(1)N

196,15

40,36

1,742

7,805

5,582

300

120

17

1372

41,000

(3)C

52195

15,514

2,996

29,959

3,073

450

160

19148585,000(2)E382197,889

15,144

4,567

10,380

170

4513

1132

32,700(4)S25316

5,902

6,581

2,529

10,109

125

3712

1139

21,000Tot
al15170537689

30,26747396

34,625

1165

373

7460

283

279,700

Table 3. Building types of Tabuk city
Area ID

12345

Area RES1
Name (%)

RES2(%)RES3(%)

RES4(%)

west
northty cente
east
south

59.00
49.00
36.00
45.00
62.00

26.00
38.00
54.00
12.00
10.00

10.00
10.00
6.00
40.00
26.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

EDU1 EDU2 MED1 MED2 COM(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)

1.70
1.60
0.80
0.50
0.10

0.12
0.60
0.13
0.20
0.07

0.10
0.20
0.04
0.20
0.09

0.08
0.40
0.03
0.10
0.04

3.00
0.20
3.00
2.00
1.70

IND
(%)

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Sum(%)
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00

Table4. Building inventory by area
Step 4: Arranging population distribution
Out of the total of population of 279,700, 36% live in West district, 30% in City Center, 15% inNorth district, 12 % in East district, and 7% in South district. Mesh weight is given to eachdistrict according to the population density.
Step 5: Defining Scenario Earthquake
Al-Aqaba Earthquake with magnitude 7.3 in 1995 is taken as the scenario earthquake. The otherscenario earthquake is the same one but with magnitude 7.8. The time of occurrence is AM 12:00
noon.
Scenario Earthquake Information

Read Me First
Scenario
H istoric al Earthquak eUser D efined Earthquak e

Earthquak e Information

Attenuation Equation

Ch oo se Sc e na rio Ea rthq ua k eAqaba Earthquak e 19 95

Earthquake Manitude

7.3

EQ Oc c uranc e T ime (hrs)12Earthquak e Depth (k m)Choose Attenuation Equation
10.5

Fuk ushima & T an ak a - 1

Reference Information
Enter R eferenc e M eshID N o.

114

Choose EQ Direction
relative from Ref. Mesh

North

Earthquak e Epic entral
distance (km)Figure 3. Setting of a scenario earthquake

190
OK & ReturnStep 6: Calculation of base rockmotion and surface motion andconverted into
PGA, andconverted into MMI.
MMI distribution in the case ofmagnitude 7.3 is shown in Table 5. .

Average M M I is 8.58
Sr.N oAreaID
Area Nam e11223344
55
Average Inform ation

Average
Average
PG A (g)
MMI
0.4
8.7
0.4
8.7
0.4
8.7
0.4
8.6
0.4
8.6
8. 6
0. 4

Average
Distance
13.3
11.7
13.2
14.7
17.9
13.6

west
northcity center
east
south

Table 4. Average MMI
Step 7: Calculate damage to building
and infrastructure/ lifeline facilities
In the case of magnitude 7.3,
approximately 34% percent of totalbuildings will be damaged as shown inTable 5. The total buildings count is151,705 and the number of building
damaged is 52,200. In Figure 5, the large
damage is seen in West of the city with
red color and the next large damage withyellow color, and the lowest damage
with green color.

The total building count are 151705 and34% damaged
No Area
Area
Bldg
DamagedID
NameCountsCounts

MDR
(%)

1
1
west
2
2
north
3
3
center
4
4
east
5
5
south
Summary Information

33.9
36.8
38.9
25.8
26.6
34.4

47332
21542
51580
18811
12440
151705

16037
7919
20069
4848
3309
52182

Table 5. Summary information of building damagedddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddccccccccccddddddddddddddddcccccddddddddddddddddddccccdddddddddccccccccdddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddcddddcccccccbbbccccccccccbbbbc

ccccccccbbbbbbcccccccbbbbbbccccbbbbbbcbbbacbccbccbbb

Figure 5. Building damage distributions map
Step 8: Casualties
About 14,700 people, 6% of the total
population will be injured and about
1,460 people will be killed as shown in
Table 6. Most of injuries and death
concentrated in the west and city centerof Tabuk city.

279700 and 5.2% will be injured
AreaArea
Day
NightID
Name
Pop
PopCounts Counts
1
west
44585
71442
2
north23149 37309
citycenter
3
52940
92130
4
east
28653
53069
5
south
13600
25750
Summary
162928 279700
Information

5.2%injuried
Death Injury

426
240

4023
2369

588
138
68

6079
1509
720

1460

14700

Table6. Summary of number of casualties

Step 9: Summarize Results
Two scenarios were chosen, the first is 7.3 and the second is 7.8. The summary of the damage inthe two cases are shown in Table 7.
Scenario

Totalbuildings

Total
Buildings
population damage

DeathInjuries

Scenario (1)Magnitude 7.3

151,705

279,700

52,18234 %

1,460
0.52 %

14,7005.2%

Scenario (2)Magnitude 7.8

151,705

279,700

57,62538 %

1,847
0.66 %

17,165
6.1 %Table 9 Summary results of two earthquake scenarios

Earthquake Scenario
The Earthquake Event Scenario outlines the direct effects that would occur if the Al-Aqaba
Earthquake would hit Tabuk city. The scenario intends to identify the weak points of disastermanagement of Tabuk city. The scenario was developed based on the results of the RADIUS
application, my own experiences as the responsible person for disaster management in Saudi
Arabia, and my own imagination. Needless to say different earthquakes will provide a different
pattern of damage and influences.

Problems in Disaster Management in Tabuk City
Building Damages: Around 34% of the total buildings will be heavily damaged..
Casualties: Most of the death toll (1,460) will result from the collapse of houses..
Fire, Blockage and Debris: Most of fires will not spread due to the primarily inflammablematerials in side buildings.
Medical Care and Hospitals: Serious injuries will require hospital care, and the other injuries
will be treated on site. There will be limited resources of doctors, nurses, medicines.
Homeless, Refugees, Shelters: Most of affected people will be left homeless and they will
gather in shelters or open spaces, searching for their families and relatives.
Education and schools: Many public schools will be damaged, because their buildings arepoorly constructed and vulnerable. Most of children will be affected. Many remaining schools
will be used as shelters for a long time.
Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges and Airport): There will not be too many incidents of damage
or cracks in highways and roads, except blockage by collapsed buildings in dense areas.
Water Supply and Sewage: Damages to water pipelines will affect most of the users in the city
areas. All available water supply trucks will try to move among the dwellings to compensate forthe loss of supplies from broken pipelines. In order to mitigate the damages from an earthquakeand prepare for disaster management and emergency response, increasing the knowledge anddisseminating information are important such as training and education for government staff,
school students, and community. Also, social education by NGOs could be effective as
knowledge of earthquake disaster would be disseminated through various seminars and trainings.

Recommendations- No single ministry can handle effectively all aspects of managing earthquake risk or managing
an earthquake disaster. All ministries, local governments, and other sectors of society must
participate individually and collectively.
- Update of institutional system for disaster management in Saudi Arabia comprises major
elements.
- Clear assignment of responsibilities to ministries, local governments, and other institutions.
- Creation and strengthening of sustainable mechanisms for cooperation- Development and implementation of policies

Acknowledgements
I would also like to express my gratitude to my advisor Dr. Taiki SAITO, Building ResearchInstitute, for his support and suggestions during my study.

References- Cabinet Office, Government of Japan., Disaster management in Japan- Geo Hazards international, 2001, Global Earthquake Safety Initiative Pilot Project- Okazaki K., 2000, Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban areas against
Seismic Disaster (RADIUS)- Rajib Shaw and Kenji Okazaki, 2004, Sustainable Community Based Disaster Management(CBDM) Practices in Asia - A USERS GUIDE- Syunitiro Omote, 2006, Earthquake Disaster and Earthquake Engineering in Japan, Journal ofDisaster Researsh.
- Web page of GEOHAZARDS, http://www.geohaz.org/contents/projects/gesi.html- Web page of FEMA, http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazuz/dl_fema433.shtm