Experience with tsunami risk management in Chile

MAURICIO REYES GALLARDO
Civil Engineer– UTFSM – CHILE
Master of Disaster Management – BRI/GRIPS - JAPANmauricio.reyes@uv.cl

www.ingenieriaoceanica.uv.cl@icoceanica@INGENIERIA.CIVIL.OCEANICA

Experience with tsunami risk management in Chile
OBJECTIVES:•
To generate reflections about Disaster
Risk Management in Chile an othercountries.
•Learn about Chile, its context, prehistory
and history.
•To know the main disasters in thisgeographical area, especially
earthquakes an tsunamis.
•Have an approach to the measures thatChile has taken to reduce Tsunami
Disaster Risk (and other disasters risk).
•Assimilate and share experiences.

Contents:••••••••

Disaster Risk Management
Chile: A multihazard country
Earthquakes
Tsunami
Our vulnerabilities
Our capacities
Our latest experiences
Strategic analysis and a sort of conclusions.

https://www.chile.travel/en/Disaster Risk Management

To talk about DRM is to talk aboutlife and death.

じんせい

人生
生ビール

生

VIDA
LIFE

https://www.espaiwabisabi.com/la-palabra-vida-japones/☥Disaster Risk Management

死DEATHSYSTEM’S VARIABLES

POSITIVE FEEDBACK (+)

DEATH

HOMEOSTATIC PLATEU(survival zone)
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK (-)

DEATH

POSITIVE FEEDBACK (+)
STRESSUNCERTAINT Y
UNDER
STRONGL AWS!!!

Disaster Risk Management

Let’s analyze things regarding toTime, People and Place… and Law.

Disaster Risk ManagementTIMETO B E AWA R E O F T I M E S C A L E S ,TO FAC E T H E C O M P L E X I T Y O F T H I S C H A L L E N G E .

Disaster Risk Management

PEOPLETO B E AWA R E O F P E O P L E ’ S T H I N G S ,TO FAC E T H E C O M P L E X I T Y O F T H I S C H A L L E N G E .

EARTH DIAMETER = 12,742 [km]AVG. OCEAN DEPTH = 4 [km]Disaster Risk Management

MAX. OCEAN DEPTH = 11 [km]HIGHEST BREATHABLE AIR = 8 [km]PLACETO B E AWA R E O F O U R P O S I T I O N I N T H E U N I V E R S E ,TO FAC E T H E C O M P L E X I T Y O F T H I S C H A L L E N G E .

Disaster Risk Management
Energy can neither becreated nor destroyed only converted from one
form of energy to another

LAW

If there is not work,
Energy will disperse...

Disaster Risk Management

Let’s put the ball on the ground.

The potential for adverse consequences forhuman or ecological systems, recognizing thediversity of values and objectives associatedwith such systems (IPCC 2014).

CONCEPT••••

Uncertainty.
Damages.
Losses.
Death.

Multihazard (Impossible to separate from otherhazards)
Multidimensional impact
Multidimensional vulnerability

R=PxI

FORMULATION

RISK

R: Risk
P: Probability of occurrence of a Hazard’s scenario
I: Impact level (dependent of vulnerability and exposure
RISK MATRIXPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE(FACTOR)

IMPACT LEVELSNEGLIGIBLE

MINORMODERATESERIOUS

12345LOW TOLERABLE

LOW TOLERABLE

MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)HIGH INTOLERABLE(UNSTABLE)

HIGH INTOLERABLE(UNSTABLE)

HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)HIGH INTOLERABLE(UNSTABLE)

HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)HIGH INTOLERABLE(CRITICAL)

1LOW ACCEPTABLELOW ACCEPTABLE

2LOW ACCEPTABLELOW TOLERABLE

MEDIUM

3LOW TOLERABLE

HIGH

4LOW TOLERABLE

5MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)VERY LOW

LOW

VERY HIGHMEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)MEDIUM TOLERABLE(UNDERCONDITIONS)HIGH INTOLERABLE(UNSTABLE)

SEVERE“Normality”“Crisis”

Let’s talk about Chile.

https://wallpaperaccess.com/santiago-chile

Chile: A multihazard country
First Spaniards

1536Eastern
Independence Pacific War Island Anex. Civil War.

1810

1879

1888 1891

Prehistory

Chile is a “young” country…
…historically and geologically(not more tan 550 [Myr])

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

Chile: A multihazard country
First Spaniards

1536

Eastern
Independence Pacific War Island Anex. Civil War.

1810

1879

1888 1891

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

https://www.democraciayprogreso.org/algunas-reflexiones-en-torno-al-desarrollo-economico-chilenoy-su-proyeccion-hacia-el-futuro/Chile: A multihazard country

De Gi - Trabajo propio, Dominio público,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5841884

Chile: A multihazard country

Chile: A multihazard country

Chile: A multihazard country
Population concentrated in urban areas,very low density outside.
Very important in economic terms(copper, lithium, solar energy).
Scarcity of water.

Desert: dry

Not so dry but very fertile.
High population density (30-480 [hab/km2] ).
Economic and agricultural core.
Drough due to climate change.

Very fertile, Mediterraneanconditions.
Cold and rainy.
Cold, windy, rainy, snowy...

Low population density.
Ecological value.
Very cold, very windy, rain andsnow.

(Draw courtesy of P. Winckler)

Chile: A multihazard country

19,000,000 people.
8,000,000 in Santiago and surroundings.
GDP 24,700 U$ per capita
One main language (spanish).
https://www.populationpyramid.net/

Chile: A multihazard country
https://arclim.mma.gob.cl/atlas/index/
https://www.onemi.gov.cl/visor-chile-preparado/Disaster Risk Management
So, Chile is a large
country, not so
populated, but withvulnerabilities andunder the threat ofseveral hazards.
https://weltrisikobericht.de/weltrisikobericht-2021-e/

Chile: A multihazard country
First Spaniards

1536
Prehistory

Eastern
Pacific
WarIndependence
Island Anex. Civil War.

1810

1879

1888 1891

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

Earthquakes
First Spaniards

1536

Eastern
Independence Pacific War Island Anex. Civil War.

1810

1879

1888 1891

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

Prehistory

Mapuche people:
Oral tradition… no written language.

Earthquakes
Eastern
Pacific
War
Independence
Island Anex. Civil War.

First Spaniards

1536

1810

Prehistory

RECURRENCE(Pictures courtesy of M. Cisternas)

1879

1888 1891

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

Earthquakes
First Spaniards

1536
HISTORY

Eastern
Pacific
War
Independence
Island Anex. Civil War.

1810

1879

1888 1891

Military coupand gov.

1973

Back to
Democracy.

1990

Earthquakes

TECNOLOGY

A BIG JUMP!!! (EWS)Earthquakes

TECNOLOGY
Measurement / monitoring /forecasting / communicating

Research
Education

Earthquakes
BIG EQ IN HISTORYFIRST WRITTEN REPORTS

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE UNDERSTIMATED
FROM PARTIAL HISTORICAL RECORDS.
UNDERSTIMATION OF HAZARDCARVAJAL (2015)
PROPOSED 8,5Mw TO

9,1Mw

CENTRALCHILE?

Earthquakes

CHILLAN 1939:
EQ 8,3Mw
INLAND (100KM DEPTH)
AROUND 24000 VICTIMS (THE LARGEST ONE)RF MASONRY / CORFO / BUILDING CODE

Tsunami:
VALDIVIA 1960:
FORESHOCK 8,2Mw
EQ 9,5Mw
TSUNAMIAROUND 2000 VICTIMSSOIL MECHANICS / ONEMI / PTWC

Earthquakes

LLOLLEO 1985:
EQ 7,8Mw
NO TSUNAMI
AROUND 180 VICTIMSMEASUREMENT / NCh433/ ONEMITHERE IS EVIDENCE!

Earthquakes

SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE (27F2010)

Isla Santa María.
Melnick et al., 2012, Geology

MAULE 2010:
EQ 8,8Mw
TSUNAMIAROUND 600 VICTIMSSOIL MECHANICS / RC CODE / ONEMI / SNAMTHERE IS EVIDENCE!

Earthquakes

NORTHEN CHILE (2014)

IQUIQUE 2014:
EQ 8,2Mw
TSUNAMI
7 DEAD, 200 INJUREDEVACUATION USING EWS / PORTS BCPTHERE IS EVIDENCE!

Earthquakes

NORTHEN CHILE (2014)

ILLAPEL 2015:
EQ 8,4Mw
TSUNAMI
7 DEAD, 200 INJUREDEVACUATION USING EWS / LESS THAN 10 MIN

Tsunami:
AYSÉN 2007

Tsunami:
MAULE 2010
IQUIQUE 2014
ILLAPEL 2015
CHILOÉ 2016
ANTARTIC OCEAN 2021
TONGA 2022

Tsunami:
SNAM (Sistema Nacional de Alerta de Maremotos)
https://www.snamchile.cl/index.php?p=snam&enl=3

SIPAT (Sistema Integrado de Predicción y Alarma de Tsunamis)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nvECsArJZYWE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT OUR COUNTRY,WITHOUT ANGER AND LOOKING FOR THE
COMMON BENEFIT.

Our vulnerabilities:

GOVERNANCE IS NEEDED• They are always present, no matter which country are we talking about.
• Inequality and lack of urban planning. Actually, I should say societal,
ecological, economical, and other complex things.
• Ignorance and bad education. Bad use of technology (fake news).
• They are always present, no matter which country are we talking about.
• Inequality and lack of urban planning. Actually, I should say societal,ecological, economical, and other complex things.
• Our old infrastructure. The maintenance of infrastructure.
• Transportation systems.
• Etc…
Determinación del riesgo de los impactos del Cambio Climático en las costas de Chile. (Winckler et al., 2019)

Coastal
population

Our vulnerabilities:

100 coastal municipalities: 4,5 millones (26%, INE, 2017)
Below 10 [masl]: 972.623 (5,53%)
Below 10 [masl] es 71,3% urbana y 28,3% rural

Determinación del riesgo de los impactos del Cambio Climático en las costas de Chile. (Winckler et al., 2019)

Our Capacities:
We have learned from experience.
We know our territory and we have good universities.
We are doing science. Not as much as we would like to, but we are.
One language (this is not so valid with inmigration…).
We can spend money. Not as much as we would like to, but we can.
Very good application of building codes and good control of building
processes.
• We can make political improvements. Slow, but we can.
• Etc…
••••••

Strategic Analysis and a sort of conclusions•••••

Open mind and tolerance (Maisa).
Education (for everyone).
Investment.
Control and law.
GOVERNANCE