Country Report

Pakistan

FY2021 Visiting Researcher
Asghar Ali Jamali
NDMA
Pakistan1. BackgroundPakistan is under stress from various hazards, including seismic
activity originating in the Himalayan region, along with numeroushydro meteorological hazards such as flooding, cyclones and adverse
weather. However, different parts of the country are exposed tovarying extent; coastal areas are prone to swell waves and cyclones,
the low-lying plains of Indus river are increasingly prone to flooding,and the northern regions are highly vulnerable to landslides,
snowstorms, avalanches and earthquakes (Ullah & Takaaki, 2016).
These events occur regularly and at all scales, thus increasing
vulnerabilities and creating cycles of poverty as they erode theresilience of the most vulnerable inhabiting highly exposed areas.
Most damaging events in the past have been cyclones, droughts,floods, and landslides; 75 percent of all disasters between 1980 and2013 have been the result of hydrometeorological hazards (GFDRR,2019; Ullah & Takaaki, 2016). However, seismic events are still aparticular concern due to the vicinity of the Himalayan orogenic zone,activity of which has triggered severe large-scale earthquakes. For
example, the past earthquake measured 7.2 on the moment
magnitude scale resulted in catastrophic losses in Kashmir in 2005.
The Kashmir earthquake killed nearly 75 000 people and destroyed 3
million homes partly due to massive-scale landslides (Naranjo, 2008).
Furthermore, the tectonic activity of the main plates may trigger theother complex fault zones which have the potential for severe failures.
For example, the earthquake of 2008 in Balochistan, where the strikeslip failure of the Chaman fault (driven by the collision of the Indianand Eurasian plates which further interact with the Afghan block)caused a main shock of Mw 6.4 which further cascaded into 1185 total
recorded shocks (Yadav, et al., 2012).

Climate Risk

2. Economic Impact of Disaster
Several large-scale disasters have affected Pakistan and thedevelopment of the country’s economy. As a disaster-prone country,with a high exposure to hydrometeorological, and geophysicalhazards with reoccurring and seasonal characteristics, damages
caused by earthquakes, flooding, droughts, landslides and storms are
not uncommon (ADRC, 2016). Disasters have been found to have a
profound impact on economic growth, harming not only human capital
but also infrastructure and assets in a manner which has been
established to have negative effects on the annual GDP (Shahzad,2014).
In 1998-2001, a severe period of drought reduced the GDP growth by
50 percent (LEAD, 2015). This was followed by the Kashmir
earthquake of 2005, the flooding of 2010, earthquake in 2011, andanother severe flooding in 2012. On average, these reoccurring
disasters have led to 1.16 percent reduction of the national GDP
annually, and have forced households to divert resources fromproductive sectors towards rebuilding and recovery activities (LEAD,2015).

3. Social Impact of Disaster
Disasters have also had adverse impacts on human life. The floodingof 2010 affected an estimated of 18 million people, caused 1984
casualties, displaced 150,000 families and damaged or destroyed
approximately 1.8 million houses across the 78 impacted districts(WHO, 2011). Out of the 9,721 health facilities in the country, 515
were reported damaged or destroyed. However, most severe impacts
were caused by the disruption on the delivery of health services as
the lack of medical equipment, medication and displaced staff wererestricting the effectiveness of relief efforts. Also, displacement
persisted several months after the flood depending on the area.
By August 2010, almost half a million cases of dysentery and otherdiseases had been reported as a result of the flooding, andapproximately 3.5 million children were estimated to be at risk ofcontracting diarrhea, cholera, and other water-borne diseases(Looney, 2012). During the months following the flooding, cases of
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, dengue, cholera, malaria,measles, polio and diphtheria started unfolding (Warraich, et al.,2011). Such health impacts and losses of livelihoods following
cascading disasters affect households due to the forced need toredirect resources to recovery activities, and also the children of lowincome backgrounds are forced to drop out of education to seek
employment opportunities to support their families (LEAD, 2015).

4. Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Action Interventions
While the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 is thought to have promoted
DRM advancement in affected countries such as Sri Lanka, Maldivesand Thailand, the Kashmir Earthquake in October, 2005, created asense of urgency for establishing a proactive and comprehensive
DRR system in Pakistan. The major flood event in 2010 has expedited
further actions to drive DRR momentum into full implementation. The
following chapters capture highlights of the legacy of past attempts
and current status in DRR, as well as looks into the implementation
challenges and priorities for the future.

Government Interventions5. Issues in Implementation of DRR and Climate Policy
With increased frequency and intensity of disaster events, emergency
response capacity and more amplified preparedness interventions
have to be strengthened, especially for floods as recurrent hazards.
Moreover, for disaster risk reduction, actions should be emphasized
by establishing coherent plans, with the division of functions and roles
between multi-tiered DRM structures and concerned agencies atdifferent levels (Fayaz & Bussell, 2017). Revisiting DRM institutionalarrangements and mandates at all levels should be prioritized toclarify the division of tasks and chain of incident command. Whileeach district has formulated a District Disaster Risk Mitigation (DRM)
Plan, putting the plan into action has been hampered in part by lackof resources (NDMA, 2015). Thus, addressing financial challenges isanother critical area. Direct allocation from federal level for provincial
and district DRR activities is not in tune with the current budget
system, and PDMAs and DDMAs themselves have faced serious
impediment in mobilizing locally-generated funds for DRR, amidst
various competing demands. Alignment of donor priorities withnational strategies and more effective resource allocation from donorfunded schemes should be explored (ADPC, 2018) to channel
financial resource, and thus realizing planning into materialized
actions. Disaster risk finance strategy is compulsory for Pakistan toaddress the significant financial and fiscal costs arising from disasters
and climate change.

6. Future Challenges and Priority Issues
Challenges related to water security have reached their criticalthreshold. Various factors are acknowledged to be contributing to thesituation; poor water data and information for water resourcemonitoring and management, weak processes for water resources
planning and allocation, absence of environmentally sustainable
water utilization, widespread pollution, and low water productivity inagriculture (World Bank, 2019). Coupled with increasing flood anddrought risks, sustainable water management by adopting multidisciplinary solutions, with basin-scale multi-stakeholder waterplanning, will be crucial. Risk-sensitive spatial planning is stillhindered by the lack of technical capacity, comprehensive disasterand climate risk information, and due to complex governance andurban development systems. However, the plethora of government
agencies involved in DRM and DRR at federal, provincial and districtlevel as well as non-state actors provided both, opportunities as well
as challenges. From DRR perspective, there is a lack of long-termplanning for flood risk reduction and activities remain extremely
centralized (Imran, et al., 2016)