The Damage Estimationon the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake

Disaster Management Bureau
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Number of Deaths and Missing Persons in Previous Disasters
25 00025,000Great East Japan Earthquake (19,515)
20,0001945 Mikawa Earthquake （2,306 )1945 Typhoon Makurazaki(3,756 )1946 Showa Nankai 1, Earthquake (443)

15,0001947 Typhoon Kathleen(1,930)
1948 Fukui Earthquake (3,769)
1959 Typhoon Ise-wan(5,098 )10,0001995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (6,437)
1953 Torrential Rains in Nanki(1,124)
1954 Typhoon Touyamaru(1,761)

5,000

0
'45 '47 '49 '51 '53 '55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
Source: Chronological Scientific Table(year)

Large Earthquakes Reviewed by the Central Disaster Management Council
Super wide-area earthquake extending to western JapanTokaik i EarthquakehkHuge tsunami over 20 meters

Tonankai, Nankai Earthquake
Rate of earthquake production over 30 years:
60 ～ 70%

Oceanic-type earthquakes
in the vicinity of the Japanand Chishima Trenches

Concerns about neglected timber buildings andcultural assets

Unknown ( Miyagi offshore
earthquake production rate over 30
years: 99% prior to the Great East
Japan Earthquake)

Cyubu region,
region Kinki region
Inland Earthquake

Concern about critical national operations

Tokyoy Inland EarthquakeqRate of earthquake production over
30 years: approx 70%(Magnitude 7 in southern Kanto area)
Oceanic earthquake
Inland earthquake

Rate of earthquake occurrence is by Ministry of
Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Planning and Review for Countermeasures Against Earthquakes(1) Estimate distribution of seismic intensity, tsunami height, etc.
(2)Estimate likely damage
Deaths, buildings, fire, transportation, transit facilities, supply of utilities,
waste disposaldl ffacilities,lcommunications systems, etc.

((3)) Countermeasures
Master planning from prevention through to emergency response, recovery and rebuilding(4) Earthquake disaster management strategy
Set quantitative targets for disaster prevention, implementation plans, etc.

(5) Emergency response activity overview(6) Firm action plan

DecideD
id on theh activities
i i i to b
be carriedi d out b
by eachh organizationi i andd the
h llevell off
support required in case of earthquakes

Countermeasure Overview for Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes(Dec.2003)
P
Preparedness
dT
Tsunamii・Build earthquake resistant housing andpublic buildings
・Upgrade and make the transportation
network(land-sea-air)earthquake
resistantgearthquakeqimpactp
・ Drive long-term
countermeasures
・ Drive cultural asset protection
countermeasures

・Upgrade facilities
Automate the operation of floodgates
・Automate・Maintain and upgrade seawalls
・Evacuation countermeasures
・Secure evacuation centers and evacuation routes
Information dissemination to citizens
・Information
・Non-emergency use of tsunami evacuation buildings
・Maintenance of hazard maps
・Dissemination of disaster preparedness knowledge

Wide-area
Improve community disaster management･Improve･Enhance disaster education･Create an autonomous disaster organization･Maintenance of communication methods
Stockpile large volumes of essential goods･Stockpile･Establish an earthquake support plan
･Sharing of information･Maintenance of an activity base to support the public
Support for isolated communities (using helicopters,
helicopters etc.)
etc )･Support･Maintenance of disaster management centers･Implementation of an emergency response activity plan

Earthquake Disaster Management Strategy for Tonankai & Nankai Earthquake(Mar.2005)

Disasteri
prevention
i target:
Deaths and economic impact to be Reduced by Half within 10 years

DeathsApprox.
17,800 persons

8,700 persons

Approx.
9 100 persons
9,100(deaths due to the tsunami ~8,700 persons)

Earthquake resistanthousing, etc.*
Improved awareness oftsunami evacuation plans
Maintenance of coastal
facilities

Approx. 3,700 persons
Approx. 3,600 persons
Approx. 800 persons

Reduced fires due toearthquake resistant housing

Approx. 300 persons

Countermeasures for steeplyinclined areas pprone tolandslides

Approx. 300 persons*Example of a specific target

Economic Impact

Approx. 27 Trillion Yen
Approx.
57 trillion yen (~US$270M) 31 trillion yen(~US$570M)(~US$310M)

Loss of assets (earthquake
resistanti t thhousing,i etc.)t )Flow on effect outside of
the affected region
Interruption to production
activities (secure laborand assets for business)
Restriction of east and west
arterial traffic (earthquake
resistant bridges, etc.)

Ratio of earthquake resistant housing 75% to 90%~19 trillion yen (~US$190M)~4 trillion yen(~US$40M)~3 trillion yen(~US$30M)~1 trillion yen(~US$10M)

Activity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures(Mar.2005)
for the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes
Allocation of
Support TeamTo Mie Pref.

To Aichi Pref.

Police 2,390
Fire dept. 3,280
Defense 4,700
Total 10,370 persons

Police 2,100
Fire dept. 9,930
Defense 8,000
Total 20,030persons

To Tokushima Pref.

To Shizuoka Pref.

PoliceP
li
710
Fire dept. 1,280
Defense 2,400
Total 4,390 persons

Police 2,540
Fire dept. 2,860
Defense 11,600
Totall 17,000 persons※応援部隊の派遣数は最大値

General Support※この他に、長野、岐阜、滋賀、京都、大阪、兵庫、奈良、岡山、広島、香川、愛媛、大分、宮崎の各府県に、合計2,300人派遣

To Wakayama Pref.

To Kochi Pref.
Police 2,730
Fire dept. 2,940
Defense 8,100
Total 13,770
13 770 persons

Policeli
1,830830
Fire dept. 2,960
Defense 6,500
Total 11,290 persons

42,800 persons( t ffor d(notdesignatedi t d area))

Allocation Scale（total）
121,950 persons

Activity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures for(Mar.2007)
the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes
Commodity Procurement

To Mie Pref.
Pref

To Aichi Pref.
Pref

Food Approx. 7.7m meals
Milk powder for infants approx. 2.9t
Blankets
a ets approx.
app o 40,000
0,000
Diapers approx. 91,000

Drinkable water approx. 27,000t
Food Approx. 23m meals
Milk ppowder for infants approx.
pp
8.6t
Diapers approx. 52,000
Portable toilets approx. 4,900

To Tokushima Pref.
Drinkablek bl water approx. 2,400t
Food Approx. 2.8m meals
Milk powder for infants approx. 1.1t
Blankets approx. 5,100
Diapers approx. 20,000
Portable toilets approx. 770

To Shizuoka Pref.
Food Approx. 5.4m meals
Milk powder for infants approx. 2.9t
Diapers approx. 51,000

To Kochi Pref.

To Wakayama Pref.

Drinkable water approx. 3,700t
Food Approx. 4.6m meals
Milk powder for infants approx. 1.5t
Blankets approx.
approx 64,000
64 000Diapers approx. 68,000
Portable toilets approx. 1,600

Food Approx. 4.1m meals
Milk powder for infants approx. 1.2t
Blankets approx. 29,000
Diapers approx
approx. 61,000
61 000Portable toilets approx. 1,000*Only indicated for major items*Sufficient for one workActivity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures for(Mar.2007)
the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes
Wide-area Medical Service
Okayama Airport
Hi hi
Hiroshima-nishi
i hi Airport
Ait
Hiroshima Airport
Hohu AirfieldTakamatsu Airport
Matsuyama Airport
Fukuoka Airport
Nagasaki Airport
Oita Airport
Kumamoto Airport
Miyazaki Airport

Nagoya Airfield
Mie University

Hamamatsu Base
Asutamuland Tokushima

Kochi University
Sukumo City
General PlaygroundKomatsu Airfield
Miho Airfield
Fukuoka Airport

Iruma Airbase
Haneda Airport
Atsugi Airbase
Matsumoto Airport
Komatsu Airfield
Itami Airport
Y Ai
Yao
AirportTarget number ofpatients to transport-584

Miyakawa Love River ParkS d i Ai
Sendai
Airportt

Nanki-Shirahama
Airport

Medical staff required
217
Available DMAT*109*DMAT: Disaster Medical Assistance TeamShin-Chitose Airport

Haneda Airport：Wide-area transport hub indisaster affected area
Blue：Meeting hub for medical
team
Red：Wide-area transport hub
outside disaster affected area

Large Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Area Since 1600

Large earthquakes occur roughly every 100 to 150 years

Past Earthquakes Reviewed by the Central Disaster Management Council
Past earthquakes reviewed by theCentral Disaster Management Council
1. Repeated occurrence1
2. High ratio of occurrence and highly
imminent- Predicted to occur within the next 100 years- Excluded if active fault earthquakes occurred
within the past 500 years

3. Confirmed in written records as having
a significant
f
impact4. Predicted magnitude – 7 to 8
5. Impact on economic, social and criticalnationaltil operations
ti

Earthquakes studies
Trench-type earthquakes(1) Tokai
T k i earthquakehk (M8.0)(M8 0)(2) Tonankai, Nankai earthquakes（M8.6)(3) Japan oceanic trench, Chishima trench
earthquakes （M7.6 to 8.6）
Inland earthquakes(4) Tokyo inland earthquake（M6.9 to 7.5）
(5)Chubu-area, Kinki-area inland(5)Chubu-area
earthquakes（M6.9 to 8.0）

Great East Japan Earthquake March 11, 2011
Magnitude 9.0 which was notexpected near Japan

Breadth and origin of seismic wave wasunprecedented since records have been kept

Tsunami height far exceeded
expectations

Update of Disaster Management Countermeasures
Central Disaster Management Council
Report by the Committee for Technical Investigation on
Countermeasures for Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on the
Lessons Learned from the “2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku
Earthquake”(September
Earthquake(September 28th, 2011)
In order to predict earthquakes and tsunamis in the future,“A study should be conducted of the largest-possible earthquakes
and tsunamis by considering the full gamut of possibilities.”“Even though it may be unrealistic to adequately provide sufficientfacilities and equipment to prepare for a massive earthquake andtsunami which may never eventuate, we still need to ensure that we
set the assumptions without holding back.”back.

Disaster Management Countermeasures Updated
Committee for Technical Investigation of Countermeasures for Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Based on the Lessons Learned from the “2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake”⇒ Update of all disaster management countermeasures basedon reviews and lessons learned

Vision for predicting future tsunamis
in order to establish tsunami countermeasures
Two types of tsunamis expected in the futureTheh largestlpossible
ibl tsunamii whichhi h will
ill beb infrequenti fbut
b causewidespread damage
Establish comprehensive tsunami countermeasures which prioritize
h
human
life
lif byb considering
id i theth bestb t possible
ibl evacuation
ti routes
t anddemploy every possible means
Tsunamis with low wave height but high frequency cause serious damage
Upgrade seawalls, save human lives, protect citizen’s assets, stabilize
economic activities within affected communities and secure
manufacturing bases

Predictions for the Largest Possible Earthquake and Tsunami
Originating from the Nankai Trough- Ambit where deep low frequency
earthquake is occurred from plateboundary phase which is 30km deep
-Expands deeper to inland side by
fixing the location of the plateboundary phase which in 30km deep

- Ambit where the figure of
the
plate
becomes
unclear from hypocenter
distribution--

Ambit where thePhilippines sea plate is
thickeraroundthe
Kyusyu-Palau ridge- Extends from northern
Hyuga-nada in a south
west direction-

Northern margin of
Fuji-Kawaguchi fault
from trough axis
Ambitof
FujiKawaguchi fault line
is also covered

Major earthquake fault area(tsunami fault)
Area to considerA
id tsunamii earthquakehk(area to add to tsunami earthquake)

Magnitude of earthquake

Major earthquake fault line: Plate boundary phase 10km deep
Tsunami fault line: Assumption of sliding from 10km deep totrough axis

Major earthquake fault area tsunami fault
area according to the Central Disaster
Management Council(2003)
Trough axis
*B h*Bathymetrici charthprovided
id d byb JapanJ
Coast Guard

南海トラフの巨大地震
Tsunamifault model
津波断層モデル

Area
面積
Moment Magnitude
モーメント
Ｍｗ
マグニチュード Ｍｗ

Major earthquake
強震断層モデルfault model2
2
Approx.140,000ｋm
Approx.110,000ｋm
約14万ｋm2
約11万ｋm2

9.1
9.1

9.0
9.0

2011
Pacific coast of Tohoku
Earthquake

2004
Sumatra Earthquake

2010
Chile midland Earthquake

Approx.180,000km2
Approx.60,000km2
Approx. 100,000km2（approx.500㎞×200㎞） （approx.1200㎞×150㎞） （approx.400㎞×140㎞）
9.1（Ammon et al., 2005） 8.7（Pulido et al., in press)
9.0
9.0 （Chronological8.8（Chronological（Meteorology Agency）
Scientific Table）
Scientific Table）

Major earthquake fault area
Central Disaster
Management Council(2003)

Approx.61.,000km2
8.7

Areas of Serious Impact and Damage
1. House and building damage by

3. Casualties due to

1.1. Tremorq1.2. Liquefaction
1.3. Tsunamis
1.4. Rapid landslides
1.5. Earthquake fires

3.1. Building collapse
3.2. Tsunamis
3.3. Rapid landslides
3.4. Fire
3.5. Falling fences , vending machines andother objects
3.6. Moving and falling indoor and outdoor
objects
3.7. Entrapment (cannot self escape)3.8. Missing persons from tsunami damage

2. Occurrence of fallen objects
2.1.
2
1 Fallen fences and vending machines
2.2. Other fallen objects

4. Damage to essential services

5. Transportation facility damage

4.1.
4
1 WaterW t supplyl4.2. Sewage
4.3. Electricity
4.4. Communication
4.5. Gus （piped town gas）

5.1.
51 Roads
R d (hi(highways,hllocall roads)
d)5.2. Railways
5.3. Ports
5.4. Airports

Areas of Serious Impact and Damage
6. Effect on human life
6.1. Evacuees
6.2. People who cannot return home
6.3. Supply chain failure
6.4. Medical services required
6.5. Health and hygiene, epidemic prevention,
handling of bodies,bodies etc
etc.

7. Debris disposal
7 1 Disposal of large volumes of debris
7.1.

8. Other issues
8.1.
81 Entrapment in elevators
8.2. Long lasting aftershocks
8.3. Road closures
8 4 Falling rocks and cars buried by landslides
8.4.
8.5. Road accidents
8.6. Railroad accidents
8.7. People requiring support
8.8. Deaths caused by the earthquake disaster8.9. Developed land with structures

8.10. Protection of dangerous goods and industrial
facilities
8.11. Crowded public areas
8 12 Underground shops and subways
8.12.
8.13. Cultural assets
8.14. Isolated villages
8 15 Disaster emergency measures
8.15.
measures, etc
etc.
8.16. Dam overflow, storage reservoirs, etc.
8.17. Long-term flooding through ground subsidence
8.18. Multi-faceted disaster8.19. Time lag earthquakes
8.20. Damage to fishing trawlers, vessels and related
facilities
8.21. Law and order

9. Economic loss
9.1. Damagedd assets, etc.
9.2. Reduced production and services
9.3. Effect of traffic restrictions
9 4 Preliminary cost of disaster prevention to
9.4.Preliminary
minimize the impact of the disasterEstimate Damage ①
Building damage by Shaking
Ratio of completely destroyed
100%
90%

木造_全壊_旧（1962年以前）

80%

木造_全壊_中①（1963～71年）

70%

木造_全壊_中②（1972～80年）

60%
50%

Building damage by tsunamis
木造_全壊_新①（1981～89年）

40%

木造 全壊 新②（1990 2001年）
木造_全壊_新②（1990～2001年）

30%

木造_全壊_新③（2002年～）

20%
10%
0%
5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

計測震度
Seismic
Intensity

Estimate likely damage ①
Building damage by tsunamis
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%

建
物
被
害
率

60.0%
全壊（木造）
全半壊（木造）

50 0%
50.0%

全壊（非木造）40.0%

全半壊（非木造）
全壊（木造）

30 0%
30.0%

全半壊（木造）全壊（非木造）20.0%

全半壊（非木造）
半壊（木造）

10.0%

半壊（非木造）
0.0%
0

1

2

3

4
津波浸水深

Submerge Level – Rate of collapse

5

6

7

8

Estimate likely damage ②
H evacuateHowt earlierli ?

Deaths by tsunamis

Quick
Evacuation

Evacuation Rate
Evacuation
after anything
to do

Pressure
Evacuation

All people evacuate quickly

100%

0%

0%

High early evacuation rate
Push each otherHigh early evacuation rate

70%

30%

0%

70%

20%

10%

Low early evacuation rete

20%

50%

30%

• Quick Eva.
: 5 minutes after (daytime)• Do anything : 15 minutes after (daytime)• Pressure Eva. : Start after tsunami reach

Estimated damage

10 minutes (night)
20 minutes (night)

Buildings

The most damaged case in Tokai Region
Earthquake fault（land side）

item

Winter/night

Summer/daytime

Tremor

1,346,000

Liquefaction

134,000

Tsunami146,000

Landslide

6 500
6,500

Fire

T t l
Total

Tsunami fault（①）

Winter/evening

Wind : normal

155,000

194,000

682,000

Wind : ８ m/s

191,000

230,000

750,000

Wind : normal

1,787,000

1,826,000

2,314,000

Wind : ８ m/s

1,823,000

1,862,000

2,382,000

Deaths

Estimated damage

The most damaged case in Tokai Region
Earthquake fault（land side）

TremorTsunami

82,00037,00059,000High rate Early

117 000
117,000

68 00068,00070 00070,000

Low rate Early

230,000

195,000

196,000

600

200

400

Wind : normal

8,600

5,200

21,000

Wi d : 8 m/s
Wind/

10 00010,000

5 900
5,900

22 00022,000208,000

111,000

151,000～321
321,000000～ 237,000
237 000～ 277,000
277 000

209,000

111,000

152,000～ 323,000～ 238,000～ 278,000

LandslideFire

Tsunami fault（①）

Wind : normal
Total
Wind : 8 m/sComparison of Actual vs. Predicted Damage
Comparison Between the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake and a Predicted
Large-Scale Nankai Trough Earthquake
Magnitude

Wetted surface
area

Population ofwetted area

Dead and missing

Pacific Coast of Tohoku
Earthquake

9.0

561km2

Approx.
620,000

Approx.
18,800(*2)

Building damage(completely
destroyed)
Approx.
130,400(*2)

Large-Scale Nankai
TTroughh EEarthquakethk

9.0（9.1）（ ）Approx.
3)
1,630,000
1
630 000((*3)

Approx.
4)
323,000
323
000((*4)

Approx.
5)2,386,000
2386 000((*5)

Approx.
2.6 times

Approx.
17 times

Approx.
18 times(*1)

Magnification ratio(*3)
1,015km2,

Approx.
1.8 times*1 : Inside
I id ( ) iis M
Mw off ttsunamii*2 : Reported by Disaster Headquarters June 26th, 2012
*3 : Assumed wetted surface area when seawalls and floodgates function properly during earthquake
motion.
*4 : Damage when earthquake motion is landward, tsunami level is 1, it is midnight in winter , and thewind speed is 8m/s.
*5 : Damage when earthquake motion is landward, tsunami level is 5, it is the evening in winter andwind speed is 8/s
8/s.
*6 : Damage if it is 5am.
*7 : Damage if it is 6pm.

Cause of Death Due to a Large-Scale Earthquake
Great East Japan
Earthquake
Fire
1.1%

Collapse
4 4%
4.4%

Great Kanto Earthquake
Collapse
10.5%

Factories,
etc.
1.4%

Great Hanshin-Awaji
q
Earthquake
Fire
12.8%

Unknown
3.9%

Unknown
2.0%

Drowning
92 4%
92.4%
Source : Metropolitan Police Department

Fire
87.1%

Collapse ofbuildings
83.3%

Dead and missing persons : 105,385
Source : Japan Association for Earthquake
Engineering

Source : Autopsy statistics in Kobe city

Predicted Damage

被害額
PhysicalDamageHuman
Casualities

Disasteraffected area
Damage toassets, etc.
(rebuilding costs)

Outside disaster
affected area

１６９ ５ Trillion yen
１６９．５
Effect on economic activities(reduced production)

Operational Issues
Restricted supply chain
Critical national
operations
ti
iissues

Traffic networkpdisruptions

４４．７ Trillion yyen
Opportunity and time loss
due to transport
p restrictions(road, railway)

１６９．５ Trillion yen

22

Effect of Disaster Preparedness(1) Earthquake-proofing
Earthquake proofing buildings- The average ratio of earthquake-proof houses is 79% in Japan (2008)- Loss reduction is estimated by assuming buildings constructed using the old quake-resistancestandard are upgraded or have anti-seismic reinforcement retrofitted.

Buildings

700 000
700,000

Persons
50 00050,000627,000

Complete collapse due to quake

600,000

Death by building collapse((midnight
g in winter))

45,00040,000500,000

35,00038,000

約

400,000

361,000

人

30,00025 00025,000300,000

21,000200,000,

240,000

15,00014,000100,000

20,000118,000
5,800

0

90%

79% (current)
Earthquake Resistance95%

10,000
5,000
0

100%

Effect of Tsunami Preparedness
Quick start to Evacuation, Evacuation places (buildings)

242,000
Seawalls
ll andd flfloodgatesdDidn’t function properly[Low early evacuation rate ]242,000,[High early evacuation rate ]109,000,[Quick start ofearly evacuation]

85,000,Effective use ofevacuationti bbuildings
ildi

157 000
157,000

70 00070,00052 00052,000Extent of Damage (Heavily Damages Areas)■D■Damage
tto essential
ti l servicesiElectricity :Landline telephones :Extent immediately
Following the disasterBlackout in 90% of the area
90% of telephones not working due to cabledamage, blackouts, etc.
Cellular phones :20% of base stations non operational.
90% of calls cannot be made due to congestion
congestion.
Internet :20% cannot contact.
Email :
80% cannot connect, however it is much slower.
Water supply and sewage pipes:90% are out of service.
Piped town gas :90% are out of service.

■Damage to transport facilities- Cracks and potholes can be found on many national, prefectural and local
roads- Roads are difficult to drive on due to debris from collapsed buildings- Highways are closed because of severe damage and require maintenance- The Shinkansen (bullet(
train)) is completely out of service- Most conventional transport links are out of service

Emergency Support Following a Disaster⇒Rehabilitation, Reconstruction

S
Searchh & rescue activities
i ii

S
Supportffor evacuees□ Fire fighting○Commodity procurement○Fuel pprocurement○Support for volunteering activities○Securing of temporary housing○Support for the homeless----------------------------------------------○Dispatch○Dit h off SSelf-Defense
lf D fFForce○Emergency fire crews○Wide-area emergency support team(incl. police)○DMAT (disaster medical service)

Di t h off supportt agencies
Dispatchi○Dispatch of agencies from central,
prefectural and local governments, etc.

Restoration of services○Communications, electricity, watersupply, sewage pipes, piped town gas◆ Opening of roads

Rehabilitation, Reconstruction○Essential○E
ti l public
bli iinfrastructure
f t t
such
h
as roads, ports, etc.
○Public buildings○○Reconstructionof houses, businessoffices cities.

◆ Securing major transportation links