DOES CONFLICT BEGET CONFLICT?
Explaining Recurring Civil War
Coding Rules for Dataset
Barbara F. Walter
Citation: Walter, Barbara F. 2004. “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining
Recurring Civil War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 41, No. 3: 371-388.
Dependent Variables:
Subsequent War (deatheither): A binary variable coded 1 for any recurring war
regardless of who the combatants were and their goals, and 0 otherwise. Source:
Correlates of War Dataset; Walter (2002) dataset on civil war resolution.
Repeat War (deathsame): A binary variable coded 1 for renewed war if it was foughtby the same combatants for the same goals as a previous war, 0 otherwise. Source:
Correlates of War dataset; Walter (2002) dataset on civil war resolution.
New War (deathnew): A binary variable coded 1 for new war if it was fought between
new combatants regardless of whether the issues were the same, 0 otherwise. Source:
Correlates of War dataset; Walter (2002) dataset on civil war resolution.
Independent Variables:
Ethnic (ethnic): A dummy variable coded 1 if combatants broke down along ethniclines, or that faction defined itself as a separate ethnic group. All other wars were coded
as non-ethnic. Source: Keesing’s Contemporary Archives; individual case histories.
Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization Index (elf): Source: Sambanis (2000), (dataobtained from Mauro 1995).
Ethnic Heterogeneity (eh): An index that measures the racial, religious and linguistic
divisions within each country. The index ranges from 0 (minimum heterogeneity) to 144(maximum heterogeneity). Source: Sambanis (2000).
Non-Total Goals(totalg): A dummy variable indicating whether the rebels initiated thewar to obtain anything less than total control over the government (i.e., political reform,regional autonomy, or territorial secession). All other wars were coded as having totalgoals. Source: Keesing’s Contemporary Archives; individual case histories.
War-Related Deaths(bd1000log): A continuous variable that denotes the number ofmilitary deaths that occurred in battle. Numbers ranged from a low of one thousand
deaths, to a high of more than a million and a quarter deaths. Data for the total number ofdeaths were obtained from the Correlates of War dataset through 1992, and if necessary
were updated through December 1999 using primary and secondary sources. Dependable
information on the number of deaths after 1992 could not be found for seven wars
(Burma, Colombia, Georgia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Turkey). In these cases, I
used an average of the deaths recorded by the Correlates of War through December 1992
to estimate the number of deaths that were likely to have occurred thereafter.
Duration of War (durationlog): The duration of war measured in months. This is acontinuous variable ranging from a low of one week (.25 month) to a high of 396 months.
Data for the duration of war were obtained from the Correlates of War dataset through1992, and if necessary were updated through December 1999 using primary andsecondary sources.
Displaced Persons (ridplog): Number of people displaced both internally and externally
due to the war. Source: Sambanis (2000) (variable: RIDP).
Grievance Settled (settlegrieve): Dummy variable indicating whether a peace treaty
addressed and resolved the main rebel grievances driving a war. Grievances wereconsidered settled if a final peace treaty included provisions that specifically addressed
these issues and implemented necessary changes, or if the rebels won a decisive military
victory and were therefore able to unilaterally implement these changes on their own.
Source: Keesing’s Contemporary Archives; The Initiative on Conflict Resolution andEthnicity; The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes; and individual
case histories.
Decisive Victory (decisivevic): Dummy variable coded 1 if a war ended in a military
victory for either the government or rebels, 0 if otherwise. Source: Sambanis (2000)(variable OUTCOME2).
Partition (partv2): Did the war result in a partition? Coded 1 if yes, 0 if not. Source:
Sambanis (2000) (variable PARTV2).
Infant Mortality Rate (infantlag): Measured in deaths of infants reported per 1,000 live
births in each country in each year. Source: World Bank, International Economics
Department, Socio-Economic Data Division.
Life Expectancy (lifexlag1): Life expectancy at birth. Measured in each country in eachyear. Source: World Bank, International Economics Department, Socio-Economic DataDivision.
Adult Illiteracy (illit): The rate of adult illiteracy in each country in each year. Source:World Bank, International Economics Department, Socio-Economic Data Division.
Real GDP/cap (gdpcap): In US Dollars: Sources: World Bank World Development
Indicators, or from Sambanis in instances in which World Bank data are missing.

Democracy/Autocracy Scale (demlag1): A scale was used that assigns two scores (010) to every country: one based on a government’s autocratic features, and one based on
its democratic features. The incumbent government’s autocracy score was thensubtracted from its democracy score to produce a net democracy number that ranges invalue from very autocratic (-10) to very democratic (+10). Measure presented in theanalysis is the score for each country in each year of peace. Source: Polity III dataset,Jaggers and Gurr, 1996.
Executive Constraints (exconst): A seven point scale used to isolate the politicalconstraints on a government’s executive branch. The coding for executive constraints
was based on the degree of operational independence the chief executive of a country
enjoyed during the years under observation. The measure presented in the dataset is thescore for each country in each year of peace. Source: Polity III dataset, Jaggers andGurr, 1996.
Political Openness (Gastil Index) (gastillag1): Index measuring political rights,defined as “rights to participate meaningfully in the political process. In a democracy
this means the right of all adults to vote and compete for public office, and for elected
representatives to have a decisive vote on public policies.” Index ranges from 1 – 7,
where 1 is most free and 7 is not. Measure presented in the dataset is the score for eachcountry in each year of peace. Source: Freedom House 1999.