An Introduction of SIC and Chinese Datafor Estimating Productivity at Industry
Level

Zhang Peng
State Information center (SIC), PRC
July 23 2007, Japan

O tline
Outline
9 An introduction of the Department of EconomicForecasting at State Information Center (SIC)
9 An introduction of Chinese Data for Estimating
Productivity at Industry Level

The Department
pof Economic Forecasting
g atSIC
9One of the major economic research institutes
instit tes ofChinese Government, especially in quantitative analysis.
9our major works include economic forecasting andpolicy analysis; economic model building
9WeWe have good cooperation with many Chinese research
institutes as well as foreign institutes, for example,
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO),
University of Maryland, Monash University.

Those workingg experiencesphavingg closerelationship with EU KLEMS Project
11. Input-output
Inp t o tp t analysis
anal sis
2. Multi-Sectoral Dynamic Model
3 Growth3.
Gth accounting
ti andd production
d ti function
f ti
4. CGEInp t o tp t anal
Input-output
analysis
sis
9In 1982,
1982 according to the System
S stem of Material Product
Prod ctbalances (MPS), SIC and National Bureau of Statistics( both belonging to the Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) at that time) finished China’s firstI/O table.
91988-1992, SIC and IDE-JETRO finished the ChinaJapan Transnational Interregional I/O Table (1985),
which
hi h isi China’s
Chi ’ fi
first international
ii l I/O Table.
T bl
9In 1990’s, SIC and IDE-JETRO finished the Chinese
I/O Table
T bl (1990),(1990) China-Japan
Chi JTTransnationalti lInterregional I/O Table (1990) and etc.

Contin ed
Continued…
92001-2003,
92001
2003 SIC and IDE-JETROIDE JETRO together finished theMulti-Regional Input-Output Table for China (2000).
9SIC has used I/O analysis to do studies in many fields,
fieldssuch as the impact of Olympics on Beijing’s economy,
economic-environmental analysis
y in China,, energygydemand forecasting, inter-regional trades, labor
migration and poverty reduction and etc.

M lti Sectoral Dynamic
Multi-Sectoral
D namic Model
9Multi-Sector
9M
lti Sector Dynamic
D namic Model is an inter-industry
inter ind str
macroeconomic model developed by Clopper Almon at
the University of Maryland.
9It is a macroeconomic model with sectoral details, andis actuallyy a two-model model,, includingg a macro modeland an I/O model.
9The macro model is used to generate the aggregate
totals of final demand components. The behavior of theseaggregate totals is then used to control the movement ofth final
thefi l demand
dd vectors
t in
i theth I/O model.
d l SoS it isidynamic.

Contin ed
Continued…
9SIC developedde eloped Chinese Macroeconomic Inter-industry
Inter ind str
Model in 2004. This is a 40-sector model, and its
database have a lot of useful information about prices,production, financial demand and etc.
9This model is used for IMF’s test of China’s economic
stability, the studies of China’s fiscal policy and etc.

Gro th accounting
Growthacco nting and production
prod ction function
f nction
9In order to help NDRC to make the “5-year-plan”,“5 ear plan” SIC
has done a lot of research on production function at
national level.
9At SIC, usually only two inputs, labor and capital, areconsidered. Output
p is measured byy GDP. And the existed
productions are aimed to estimate MFP and potential
GDP growth rate.
9At industry level, in 2005, SIC explored theproductivity of ICT industry as well as the impact ofICT industry
i d t on China’s
Chi ’ wholeh l economy.

CGE
9SIC are cooperating withith Monash Uni
Universityersit to bbuild
ild
the Chinese Inter-regional CGE Model now.

Data for p
productivity
y estimation at industry
ylevel in China
11. Input-output
Inp t o tp t tables
2. Gross output
3 Capital
3.
C it l4. Labor
5 Energy,
5.
Ematerials
t i l andd serviceiInp t o tp t tables
Input-output
9 From 1987,
1987 National Bureau
B rea of Statistics publishedp blished
I/O tables every 5 years, therefore there are 4
benchmark tables for 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2002.
9 The 1987 I/O table has 118 sectors, 1992 I/O table has
119 sectors,, the 1997 I/O table has 124 sectors,, andnewly published 2002 I/O table has 122 sectors.
9 For 1990, 1995 and 2000, there are extension tables,
only have 33 sectors.

2002 Inp
Input-output
t o tp t table
9 2002 Inp
Input-output
t o tp t table of China includes
incl des 122 sectors,
sectorsof which there are 6 sectors for agriculture, 6 sectors
for mining, 71 sectors for manufacturing, 1 sector for
scrap and waste, 3 sectors for electricity, gas and waterproduction and supply, 1 sector for construction, 9sectors for transport and warehouse, 1 sector for post,
1 sector for wholesale and retail trade services, 1
sector for food serving services,services and 22 sectors forother service.
9 Along with the 122-commodity by 122-commodity
I/O table, there are Use table with 42-commodity by
42-industryy and Supply
pp y table with 42-commodityy byy
42-industry

Gross output
o tp t9 The only
onl sourceso rce to get the gross output
o tp t data at
industry level is I/O table.
9 Value-added
Value added data are available from Statistics Year
Book and other publications.

Capital
9 There is no official capital stock data in China.
China In
Chinese Statistics Yearbook and other publications,only original value of fixed assets and net value offixed assets are reported.
9 Perpetualp
Inventoryy Method (PIM)() is widelyy used tocalculated the capital stocks in China.
9 The National Bureau of Statistics provided the seriesof investment in fixed assets data after 1952. However
such data do not cover all enterprises, for example,
sincei1997,
1997 only
l projects
j t with
ith investment
itt valuel higherhi hthan 500 thousand RMB yuan are covered in thestatistics. In practice, people should revise such data tocover the whole economy.

Contin ed
Continued…
9 There are many
man studies
st dies about
abo t China’s capital stocks,
stocksbut the results of these studies are quite different. For
example, at national level, Chow and Li (2002)
calculated the whole capital stock for China is 14,112
billion RMB yuan at the end of 1978, but according toZhu (2004) it is only 12,315 billion yuan.
9 The initial capital stocks at industry level are hard tokknow,
so it
i is
i common to assume theh initiali i i l capitali l tobe zero.
9 In
I practice,
ti straight-line
t i ht li depreciationdi ti andd geometrictidepreciation are both used in PIM.

Labor9 China’s ppublishedblished labor statistics could
co ld provide
pro ide labor
inputs for 16 sectors. However, the educational
attainment, gender and age of labor force at industry
level are hard to know.
9 Since the 1980’s,, the rural to urban migrationg
increased greatly, but statistics about migrant workers,
especially the unskilled, is quite poor. And a lot ofunskilled
kill d migrantirurall people
l employed
l d ini serviceisectors are not calculated in labor force statistics.
9 TheTh Census
Con Second
Sd Industry
I d t ini China
Chi (1950,(1950 1985
and 1993), the Census on Tertiary Industry in China(1995) and the National Economic Census (2004) canprovide data for estimating each industry’s labor.

Energ materials and serEnergy,serviceice
9 The decomposing of intermediate inputs
inp ts is according
to I/O table.

Plans for buildingg Chinese productivity
pydatabase
9Know more about EUKLEMS;
9Helpp from experts
pof EUKLEMS
9Find out useful information from our existed database;y on National Bureau of Statistics of
9Have to relyy heavily
China to provide detailed data;
9Hardworking