NGUYEN Thai Hoa*(1), Yuki Ochi(2), Kazuya Fujiwara(3), Junichi Fujino(4), Koji Shimada(5)*(1) Senior Researcher - Ritsumeikan University(2) Researcher – E-konzal(3) Researcher - Mizuho(4) Programmer Director – IGES; Senior Researcher – NIES
(5) Professor – Ristumeikan University

23rd AIM International Workshop – November 27-28, 2017
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Introduction

Background of Can Tho city

- 2016: Can Tho city officially became a member of 100 resilient
cities network (100RC) pioneered by Rockefeller Foundation.
- 2017: 100RC program was officially implemented in Can Thocity- Goal: to support develop a City Resilience Strategy againstinternal challenges as well as the global challenges of the 21stcentury.
- Can Tho climate change action plan: focus more on adaptation
measures- With the targets of green growth, sustainable development,
Low carbon scenario is an economic development model thatCan Tho city is going to implement.
- July 2017: Training workshop in Yokohama: Sharing experience
wit other cities, primary discussion for development of a LCSfor Can Tho- September 2017: Collaborate with ISPONRE, IGES, Mizuho
Information and Research Institute (MHIR), Integrated Modelof Asia and the Pacific team (AIM) to organize a workshop todevelop a low carbon scenario for Can Tho city.
- November 2017: attended the 6th annual LoCARNet meeting,Bangkok‒ Can Tho is a central city, a motivation for the economic, cultural andsocial development of the Mekong Delta, which is considered as agranary to ensure food security in Vietnam and in the world.
‒ Area: 1.405 km2, 90% of the area is agricultural land, the river system isdense with a relatively high density of 1.8-2 km/ km2.
‒ Population: 1,23 million

Image sourced from the May 2014 edition of the Vietnam Briefing Magazine –“Developing your Sourcing Strategy for Vietnam”.

Training workshop in Yokohama

Workshop to develop a low carbon scenario for Can Tho city

Work procedure

The 6th annual LoCARNet

Design a Low Carbon City (LCC)

Phase 1. To create a “snapshot” including future socioeconomic activity, GHG emissions, and required low-carbon
measures to achieve the target.

Statisticalinformation

1. Collectinformation

LCC Scenarios

Legal documents
Other information
sources

2. Discuss withstakeholders

Energy BalanceTable

3. Prepare data
input

Social Accounting
Matrix

4. Integrate
data input

ExSS/Energy

ExSS/Waste
6. Can Tho LCC
scenario andlow carbon Actions

5. Can Tho visionin target year
Information
sharing andexchange withCan Tho city

Technical report ofCan Tho LCC

Brochure of Can
Tho LCC

Phase 2. To develop a “roadmap” which shows whose, when,
and what kind of actions are needed to achieve the snapshot in
the target year, and how much it costs.
7. Developing aroadmap
Indirect measures
Relations between
measuresGrouping into actions

8. Setting quantitative
information of measures

Input resource,
Integrated effect,Shortest period, Earliest
starting year, Upper
bound of resource

9. Estimating aroadmap using BCT
Schedule of measures
Input resource in every year
GHG emission reduction in every year

LCC visions (quantitative)

ExSS

Potential/Feasible Policy
interventions

AIM/Enduse

LCC Roadmaps to the visionfrom now

Back castingtool

Definition of terms:
1. LCC Scenario: a plausible often quantitative description of how thefuture LCC may develop based on a coherent and internallyconsistent set of assumptions on social, economic, and technology
development and their relationships
2. LCC Vision: the future image and also quantitative design of a city
(group of cities) under not only GHG reduction targets but alsosocial, economic and environmental targets
3. LCC Roadmap: the pathway of when and how each policy should be
implemented in order to achieve the vision

Research progress
Indicators
Base year information
Socio-economic
Population
Household size
Social Accounting Matrix
Transport
Building
Floor area of commercial sector per
outputFloor area of commercial buildings
EnergyPower supply table in the base year
Dispersed power generationFramework of study‒ Base year: 2015
‒ Target years: 2030 (follow targets ofsome development plans)‒ Sectors: Energy, Transport, Industry,Waste, (Agriculture, LULUCF)‒ Area: Can Tho city
‒ Target GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, (HFCs, PFCs,SF6)‒ Social: 1 population group, 1
household type
‒ Transportation:
considerbothdomestic and cross-border‒ Passenger transport mode: Road
(bicycle, motorcycle, car, taxi, bus,train), waterway, aviation‒ Freight transport mode: Road,waterway, maritime, aviation‒ Scenarios: BaU (Business as usual) andCM (Countermeasure)

Tentative schedule

Status2017
Sep

Obtained
Obtained
Estimating
Collecting
Not obtained
Not obtained
Estimating
Noinformation
Estimating
Estimating

Energy demand
Energy balance table
Emissions
GHG emissions factor
Obtained
Reference for future scenario: BaU and CM
Population projection
Obtained
Economic projection / planning
Obtained
Transport planning
Obtained
Energy strategy
Collecting
Potential of renewable energy
Collectingetc.
Collecting

OctNov2018
DecJanFeb

Data collection
Kick-off Workshop in Can Tho
First trial of GHG emissions projection (BaU)
Fix the scenarios (BaU and CM)
Write report and make brochure
Workshop to disclose the research’s result andcollect comments from stakeholders
Revising based on collected comments

Acknowledgement
This research is a collaboration work among Ritsumeikan University, Asian-PacificIntegrated Model (AIM) team, National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES), Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Mizuho Information
and Research Institute (MHIR) and E-konzal in Japan, and Institute of Strategyand Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), Can Tho city inVietnam. We would like to express the great gratitude to those institutes andorganizations for contribution their work on this research.