The 20th AIM International Workshop
Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES
23‐24 January 2015

Overview of S‐12‐2 project and progresses in FY2014‐ Assessing emissions of Long‐Lived GHGsand Short‐Lived Climate Pollutants in Asia ‐Tatsuya Hanaoka (on behalf of S‐12‐2 members)Center for Social and Environmental Systems
National Institute for Environmental Studies

MOEJ‐S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental
impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014‐FY2018)
Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, byinterconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change
event analysis
・Analysis on regional AQ change
・Development of emission inventory
・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation

Theme 2: Integrated modeland future scenarios・Global socio‐economic scenarios
・National & regional emissions
scenarios
・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment

Improved emission inventory

Regional Emission
Inventories andChemical Transfer
Model・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG
・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenarios

IntegratedAssessment
Model (AIM)

Assessment of activities/policies
Chemical transfer model andemission inventory in Asia

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on
climate & environment

Climate andEnvironment
ModelFeedback of impacts

AIM/Enduse model
Socio‐economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model
Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
ScienceModelimprovement

Experiment setup
Database development
Metric definitions

Stakeholders
Policy makers

Systemutilization

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET
Proposal and assessment of climate andair pollution policies

SocietyInformationtransmissionMDG・SDG・Future EarthRegional
strategy⇅Globalstrategy 2

Challenges of S‐12 Theme 2
led by NIES cooperating with MHIR and Kyoto Univ.

1. ‐ To indicate socio‐economic scenarios considering climatechange and environmental impacts and‐ To present emissions scenarios of Long‐lived GHG(LLGHG)
and Short lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP).
【global/national/local scales】
2. ‐ To evaluate co‐benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures andSLCP reduction measures and‐ To analyze regional characteristics in Asia, in a mannerconsistent with long‐term global scenarios such as achieving
2℃ global temperature change limit target and halving
global GHG emissions by 2050.
【national/regional scales in Asia】
3S‐12 Theme2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment
Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios

Global emissions
scenarios on
Future scenarios
LLGHG・SLCP
Emissions scenarios
on LLGHG & SLCP
Information fornegotiation on
GHG reductions

Assessment ofEnv. & climate
policies in Asia
Green：Relation to other
Them
Orange：Relation to Env.
policies

National emissions
Scenarios on
LLGHG・SLCP

Global model
AIM/CGE

Global model
AIM/Enduse
Improvement of Enduse(Local activities &Pollution ManagementTechnologies)
National model
AIM/Enduse

Sub‐theme (2)Household
Model
Local emissions
scenarios on
LLGHG・SLCP

Local Airpollution model

Assessment of actions& policies

Theme 1Emission
inventory
Improved inventory

Theme3
Env. & Climate
Impacts

Future socio‐economicscenarios

Sub‐theme (1)Assessment ofmitigation costs &climate change impacts

Air pollution management
policies and events
at national/local scale

Env. & Climate
Impacts

Socio‐economic scenario
considering climate & Env. Impact

Air pollution management
technologies

Theme 4
Synthesis
systemEnv. & climate
Policy in JapanAIM models

Sub‐theme (3)Future Scenarios
Research goals

4AIM/Enduse[China] at 31 provincial levels
service demands in the urban residential sector
Per capita GDP (2010)

Important to consider provincial
characteristics when estimating
service demands in the residential
sector in China

uote

Heating degree day

Left‐top box: Regional characteristics
Left‐bottom box : Socio‐economic characteristics
Right‐bottom box: Energy service demands

Downscaling national SSPs
into provincial levels

Hot summer/Cold winterprovince

Population(SSP2)

BeijingShanghai

GuangdongGansu

Jiangxi

Guizhou

Xinjiang

Low income
province

DonoInner‐Mongolia

Hot summer/Warm winterprovince

High income
province

Cold
provincetq

Sever Coldprovince

GDP per capita(SSP2)Note) Dr. Xing’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

5AIM/Enduse[China] at 31 provincial levels
service demands in the urban residential sector
Domestic hot water supply

Other appliances

Heating/cooling load per m2

Unit of water use

Rated working and standby poweruote

Space heating and cooling・Days of each month・Average temperatureof each month・Number of households
・Average household size
・Usage frequency

Annual DHW service demand

Annual cooking, lighting, electronics
service demand

DoAnnual heating/cooling
service demandnotq

・Total floor area

・Usage time per day
・Days of each month・Number of households
・Average household size
・Penetration rate ofeach appliance

Annual residential service demand (satiated demand)

Satiation factors

Per capita income

Calibrated annual residential service demand (economic behavior corresponded)

Note) Dr. Xing’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

6AIM/Enduse[China] at 31 provincial levels
emissions in the urban residential sector
Heilongjiang
Shanghai(Severe cold) (Hot summercold winter)

notq

uote

Guangdong(Hot summerwarm winter)

Heating
Cooling
Hot water
Cooking
Electronics

Do

Annual emissions from urban residential sector

Beijing(Cold)

Note) Dr. Xing’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

7AIM/Enduse[Korea] in 6 mega‐regions
service demands in the residential & power sectors

uote

Korean Governmental outlook
is in the range of SSP1 –SSP2,similar to SSP2

DonotqLeft‐top box: Socio‐economic characteristics
Right‐bottom box: Energy service demandsNote) Dr. Park’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

8AIM/Enduse[Korea] in 6 mega‐regions
service demands in the residential & power sectors
Current energy service demand, ,∑, ,, ,, ,, ,∑Eq. 1, ,, ,, ,Eq. 2, ,Eq. 3

F(HDD, CDD, GDP, DP) Eq. 4uote, ,Future energy service demand, ,Donotq

Where, RSD: Energy Service Demand, EC: Energy Consumption, EE: Energy Efficiency,
DP: device penetration (r: Region, s: Service, e: Energy, d: Device)Note) Dr. Park’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

9AIM/Enduse[Korea] in 6 mega‐regions
emissions in the residential & power sectors
Impact of Socio‐economic characteristics

Impact of mitigation actions and payback time settings
Long payback settings

notquote

Short payback settings

DoCo‐benefits of implementing CO2 mitigation actions (in short payback time technology selections)Note) Dr. Park’s work. Under review in “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet.

10AIM/Enduse[India] in 18 aggregated states
service demands in passenger road transport sector
Population

GDP per capita

Mid class
Low classTop box:
Socio‐economic characteristics
Bottom box:
Energy service demands

Donotquote

High classNote) Dr. Mittal’s work. Will Submit to “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet

11AIM/Enduse[India] in 18 aggregated states
Historical GDP and
Population

Projected GDP and
Population

Total HistoricalTransport demand

uote

service demands in passenger road transport sector

Estimation of future
total transport demand

Estimation of future
Car Transport demand

Independent variable(GDP per capita)

Do

Historical 2W stock

noHistorical Car stocktq

Car Ownership model(Gompertz function)

Estimationof energy
andemissions
using Aim/
END‐useModel

Estimation of future
2W Transport demand

2‐W Ownership model(Quadratic function)
Estimation of future
Bus Transport demandNote) Dr. Mittal’s work. Will Submit to “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet12AIM/Enduse[India] in 18 aggregated statesemissions in the passenger road transport sectortquote

CO2DonoPMNOxNote) Dr. Mittal’s work. Will Submit to “Environmental Research Letters” , thus do not quote yet13

Extending ESS tool and updating various data
in China and India
Local Enduse model
EnergyTechnology…

ServiceDemand

LLGHG/SLCPEmission factor

LLGHG/SLCP
generation

Generation
reduction tech

LLGHG/SLCP
local emissions

LLGHG/SLCP
removal tech

LLGHG/SLCP
排出量（排出シナリオ）
LLGHG/SLCP
排出量

LLGHG/SLCP
national emissions（排出シナリオ）

Region A（state, province ,・・・）

Policies and events
influencing air
pollution

Region（state, province,・・・）
Region C（state, province,・・・）

 Data collections necessary for developing Enduse model and ESS tool
– Regional population, regional GDP, industry structures, material products,
transport volumes, energy consumptions, energy prices, etc– Energy efficiency, removal device efficiency, penetration rate, initial andoperation costs, etc, by region and country– Emission factors by energy type, by sector and by region
 Extending Energy Snapshot tool which can estimate LLGHG/SLCP emissions trends
covering all major sectors in the macro viewpointSource) by MHIR14

HouseholdTransport【Elements of regional database 】
Temporal scale：hour
Spatial scale：1km、indoor‐house • Σregion＝country

Buildings・Transport・Energy

Sub‐theme(1)National scale

Province

Province Province

Industry・Energy shift・Transport
Temporal scale：year
Spatial scale：province・state

Temporal scale：year
Spatial scale：country

Country• Inventory development cooperation withtheme 1• Detailed Large Point Source & Area Source• Buildingsl & transport etc• Mitigation measures and policies【Analyses by regional model】• Regional buildings & transport• Regional energy system• Considering climate zone, POP, income,natural resources, culture etc。
• Considering location of industry and energy
shifting and national policy

Theme 1

Sub‐theme(3)Sub‐theme(2)Relations among sub‐theme 1・2・3 in Theme 2【Elements of global database】• Consistency among global analyses andregional information• Inventory development (with theme 1)【Analyses by global model】• National & global energy system• Aggregation of regional model results in
the residential and transport sectors

lGlobal scale
Theme 215

Updating AIM/Enduse[Global]
TermRegions
Time horizonSectors

Contents
World 32 regions2005 – 2050
Energy end‐use: Industry, Residential, Service,Transport, Other
Energy supply: Power generation, Heatgeneration, Coal transformation, Oilrefinery, Gas transformation, Fuel mining
Non‐energy: Agriculture, Waste, Fluorocarbons

CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 CFC HCFC SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NH3 NMV
Fuelcombustion
Industrialprocess
Agriculture
Waste
Fuel mining
Others✔

✔

✔

✔

✔

✔

✔
✔

✻✔

✔
✔
✔
✔

✔

✻✔

✔

✔

✔

✔： Updated & elaborating✔

✔

✔

✔ ✻ ✔

✔

✻✻✻✔ ✻ ✔

✔

✻✻✻✻✻：On-going updating

Emission factors are set by energy source, by sector and by region

16AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models
Energy Resource DB

Population &Household number

Macro
Economicframe Model

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass

GDP &Sector value added

Macro-economic model

Model

Crude steel
production

Iron and steel
sectorCementProduction Model

Cementproduction

CementsectorElectricity

Value addedof 2nd industry

Other industries
sectorSolid fuelHouseholdLifestyle Model

Transport volume(Passenger)
Transport volume(Freight)
Energy service(Residential)
Energy service(Commercial)

Transport
sector

Gas fuelEnergybalance

35302520151050
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emissions

HeatHydrogen
Building
sectorMunicipal solid
waste generation

Solid waste
management sector

Agricultural Prod
& Trade model

Agriculturalproduction

Agriculture
sectorFluorocarbon
Emission Model

Fluorocarbon
emission

Fluorocarbon
sectorDeveloping &updating
Sub‐sectors

Primaryenergy

Liquid fuelMunicipal Solid
Waste Model

Service demand models

Database

Energy Supply
sectorSteel Production& Trade Model

Transportation
Demand Model

Replacing bySSPs

VariableOil

GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq)

Socio-economicscenario

Coal

Energy mining
sectorUpdating DB

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
EnergyDBTechnology DB

Energy price

Cost

Efficiency

Emissionfactor

Lifetime

Diffusion rate

17

Considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathwaysfor estimating future service demands
Historical
SSP1

Previous study by AIM/Enduse[Global]
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4

50403020100India
4030201001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

15010050

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

Japan1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

402001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

200USA15010050EU27150

10000

ASEAN

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
200250200

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

China

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

60

50

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

GDP per capita(1000 US$2005/person)

70

SSP5500
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

18

AIM/Enduse[Global] in global 32 regions
Baseline emissions from fuel combustion & industry in Asia
Asia

12

GtCO2

1510

AIM/Enduse

India

862

ASEAN

544

EDGER4.2

5651020
GtCO2

China

GtCO2256144GtCO230

3322110001970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

CO2SO2NOx

1210120ASEAN

1008Asia

10MtNOx

8064201970 1990 2010 2030 2050

121970 1990 2010 2030 2050

60

ASEAN

8MtNOxAsia

MtSO2MtSO2200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
200640420

2001970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

19

6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asiaand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways
 Emissions constraints of achieving 2℃‐3℃ were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy‐wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)
Scenario name
Reference
50 US$/tCO2
100 US$/tCO2
200 US$/tCO2
400 US$/tCO2

2013
03.75
7.515302020
012.5
25501002030
025501002002050
050100200400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0%

30

‐10%

GHG reductions ratio in Asia(% from reference)

GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq)352040037.575150300

25201510
5‐20%‐30%‐40%‐50%‐60%‐70%‐80%‐90%02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reference

Reference

2℃ scenarioT50

50US$/tCO2

T100

‐100%

100US$/tCO2T200

2.5 ℃ scenario

45% reductions from the 2005 levels

T400

200US$/tCO23 ℃ scenario

2℃Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)

400US$/tCO2
2.5 ℃

3℃

20

SLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia

‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐
120120NOx emissions in Asia (Mt NOx)

SO2 emissions in Asia (Mt SO2)

140

100
80
60
40
20010080
60402002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20452050
Reference

T50

T100

T200

40

PM emissions in Asia (Mt PM)

BC emissions in Asia (Mt BC)

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2015105T400

2℃

2.5 ℃

3℃

Reference

3550US$/tCO230100US$/tCO2

2520200US$/tCO215400US$/tCO2

1053℃ scenario

002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reference

T50

T100

T200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
T4002℃

2.5 ℃

3℃

Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)

2.5 ℃ scenario
2 ℃ scenario
21

SLCP & Air pollutants reduction potentials in Asia‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐
Emissions pathway & reduction potentials

Reduction potentials in 2050

Features of reduction
potentials are different
by energy type, by gas typeand by sector

Reference scenario
2℃ scenario
Industry
Transport
Residential & Commercial
Energy supply
OthersSource) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)22

Contact: hanaoka@nies.go.jp