On the sustainability andeffects of irrigation for massive
production of bioenergy crops
Naota HanasakiNIESOutline• Updates of the global
water resources model H08
1. Model development
2. Global impact assessment
3. Regional impact assessment
4. Integrated assessment

Julien-sanTakata-sanZhou-san• Bioenergy crop production and irrigation

1. Model development
Substantially updated for more “realistic” expressions of water flows
The original H08 model

The new H08 model- Water abstraction from river- Consumption based- +Water abstraction from groundwater, canals, & desalination- Withdrawal based

Hanasaki et al. 2016, HESS
Hanasaki et al. (under review; discussion paper available here)1. Model development > Application
Where do people take water from?

Legend: fraction ofwater source

East Asia(surface water dominated)

Hanasaki et al. (under review; discussion paper available here)
See also H08 web site

Sahara(groundwater+desalination)

2. Global impact assessment > ISIMIP
Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (IPCC SR1.5)
Multi sectoral impact analyses using multiple impact models (>20)

Lange et al. (in prep)
See also project website

2. Global impact assessment > ISIMIP
What is the 1.5 degrees warmer world?
GMT“Stabilized” 1.5 deg C“Transient” 1.5 deg C(most of the studies)1.5degPre-industrial

1900

Boulange et al. (submitted)

2000

2100

Extended futureTime3. Regional impact assessment
Many excellent students have applied H08 to multiple regions
Ganges Brahmaputra Megna

Masood et al. 2015, HESS
Korean Peninsula

Chao Phraya River (Thailand)+Adaptation

Yoo, 2016, Master thesis
Kyushu Island (Japan)

Mateo et al. 2014, WRR;Hanasaki et al., 2014; HRL

Takata et al.
in prep

Maji, 2017, Master thesis; Hanasaki et al. subm

Forthcoming: China, India, Panama and Philippines

4. Integrated assessment
Linking AIM/CGE and H08 for energy-water nexus studies

AIM/CGE(emission, mitigation)
physicalSocio-economic
constraints
constraints

17 regions, 43 sectors, annual interval

Challenge: Fill the gaps

H08

(impacts, adaptation)

50km-grid, 3 sectors, daily interval
Environmental

Domestic
Food

Manufacturi
Industrialng

Electricity

Thermalpower

Hydropower

FY2016

Bioenergy

FY2017

AgriculturalFY2015

Water useOn the sustainability andeffects of irrigation for massive
production of bioenergy crops

Background
BECCS to achieve 2 (1.5) degrees target
GHG emission paths

2 degrees scenarios(negative emission)

BECCS

Source: Smith et al. 2016

BECCS needed to achieve the 2 degrees target
C sequestration Land
EnergyGtCeq/yr(Mha)(EJ/yr)3.3

Present Total emission
level
~10

380-700

170

Total cropland~1500

Primary energy~500

Scenarios
How to produce bioenergy crop?
BaseS1S2S3

BioBio

Bio B

Base

S1(rainfed)

S2(irrigation)

S3(sustainable)

Year

2000

2100

2100

2100

Total cropland [Mha]

1570

2120

2120

2120

Bioenergy cropland [Mha]

0*

500

250

500

Irrigation for bioenergy cropNo

No

Yes, even if
unsustainable

Yes, ifsustainable

Irrigated
Rainfed
OthersYamagata et al. submitted; Hanasaki et al. in prepResults
Tradeoffs among water, food, and energy.
BaseTotal irrigation use [km3/yr]
Nonsustainable irrigation use
Food production [Mt/yr]
BECCS [GtC/yr]

1420
660
7500
01.5

S1(rainfed)

1480
720
7110
4.03

S2(irrigation)

3490
1910
8150
2.88

S3(sustainable)
2220
920
7110
3.01

Water (Total irrigation use)

10.5

BECCS
Base
S1 (rainfed)
S2 (irrigation)
S3 (sustainable)
Yamagata et al. submitted; Hanasaki et al. in prep

0Food production

Water (Nonsustainableirrigation use)

Discussion
Why S3 was not effective?
Potential “irrigatable” area

Distribution of total cropland

Fraction

S3(Irrigated bioenergy cropland)
XEJ

S3(Rainfed bioenergy3.3EJ-XEJcropland)

Where irrigation is needed, there is no water available!!

Summary• Research updates• The new model• Global impact studies (ISIMIP) Julien Boulange• Regional impact studies
 Kumiko Takata• Energy-Water nexus studies• Hydropower, Cooling water Zhou Qian
• Bioenergy and irrigation• Bioenergy and irrigation• Irrigation enhances bioenergy production• Water availability matters. Don’t be too much
optimistic!