Current Status of LCS and AIM
studies in Vietnam
Nguyen Lanh
Institute of Strategy and Policy on
Natural Resources and Environment
Tsuchiura, Japan, 12-2013

Contents
1. Update of legislation system
2. Update of recent activities relating to GHG
mitigation and LCS in Vietnam
3. Application of AIM for research in Vietnam
4. Challenges for LCS development and AIM
application in Vietnam

Update of legislation system
New legislative documents relating to LCS in the last twoyears:• The National Green Growth Strategy for the period 20112020 with a vision to 2050 (approved on 25/9/2012)
a/ Overall objectives:– green growth, as a mean to achieve the low carbon economy
and to enrich natural capital, will become the principal
direction in sustainable economic development;– reduction of GHG emissions and increased capability toabsorb GHG will be gradually becoming compulsory andimportant indicators in social-economic development.

b/ Three strategic tasks:– Low carbon growth,– Greening Production, and– Greening of lifestyleUpdate of legislation system• The National Green Growth Strategy for the period
2011-2020 with a vision to 2050 (approved on25/9/2012) (cont.)
c/ Targets:– 2011-2020: Reduce intensity of GHG emissions by 810% as compared to the base year of 2010, energy
consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)by 1-1.5% per year. Reduce GHG emissions in theenergy sector by 10% relative to business as usual (BAU)
and by a further 10% with international support.
– 2030: Reduce GHG emissions by 1.5-2% per year.
Reduce GHG emissions in the energy sector by 20%
relative to BAU and by a further 10% with international
support.
– 2050: Reduce GHG emission by 1.5-2% per yearUpdate of legislation system• National Action Plan to Respond to Climate
Change, period 2012-2020
was approved by the PM on Oct. 5, 2012, which
includes in its objectives “Reduction of GHG
emission and development of economy toward
low-carbon economy”. In details, there are 17
prioritized programs relating to GHG emission
reduction in various aspects of the economy
recommended in this Action Plan for
implementation from now to 2020

Update of legislation system• The Plan to Manage GHG Emissions and Establish a Carbon
Trading Scheme into the Worl Market was approved in theDecision No.1775/QĐ-TTg on November 21, 2012
a/ Objectives of the Plan:– Carrying out the UNFCCC and other related treaties that Viet
Nam has involved in;– Taking opportunities to develop a low carbon economy andgreen growth in the country;– Joining the international community’s efforts in mitigate GHG
emissions and contributing to sustainable development.

b/ GHG mitigation targets in 2020: (Base year 2005)– Energy: 8%– Agriculture: 20%– LULUCF: 20%– Waste: 5%

Update of legislation system• The Plan to Manage GHG Emissions and Establish aCarbon Trading Scheme into the Worl Market wasapproved in the Decision No.1775/QĐ-TTg on
November 21, 2012 (cont.)
c/ Other important missions:– To assess technology needs, disseminate and apply
potential mitigation technologies which reduce
emissions and increase the capability of GHG removal inVietnam;– To develop the framework of Vietnam’s NAMA Program ,to register and implement NAMA activities;– To establish the national measuring, reporting andverifying system (MRV) for domestic GHG emission
reduction activities;

Recent activities relating to GHG mitigation and LCS
1. GHG inventory: Inventory for the year of 2005 just finalized inMay 2013. There have been three official inventories up to now.
- In the inventory of 2005, LULUCF appears to be a big sink,
Then, the total emission seems to be almost the same as theinventory of 2000! (need more elaborate in this issues)

Recent activities relating to GHG mitigation and LCS
1. GHG inventory: (cont.)
If we do not take into account LULUCF, then the tendency ofGHG emission in Vietnam would be seen as follows:
Total emission by years

Shares of contribution among sectors

Recent activities relating to GHG mitigation and LCS
1. GHG inventory: (cont.)
Some conclusions:- In practice, emission from industrial processes and waste
accounted for only some small shares and no significant changesof contributions from these sources can be expected in near
future,- Energy and agriculture are the two main sources of GHG
emission. However, there will be a big change in the shares ofemission in these two sectors,
Energy is projected to be the largest source, with 470.8 million
tonnes of CO2e, comprising 91.3% of total emissions in 2030(SNC)

Recent activities relating to GHG mitigation and LCS
2. CDM activities- Update data by 3/2013:

However, there is no more new CDM project by now as CER price drops
too low  some other mechanism must be created.

Recent activities relating to GHG mitigation and LCS
3. NAMAs- In summary, most of ambitious NAMAs in Vietnam are inplanning stage, although there have been significant activities inwind-power and biogas development (MARD & MOIT).
- Some typical activities in MONRE:
 to assess potential NAMA to implement in some importantsectors within a project of Partnership for Market Readiness(DMHCC).
 development of options for a national structure for an MRV
mechanism for NAMA (ISPONRE).
 project of “Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for
Mitigation” (FIRM) (UNEP supports DMHCC)
 GIZ support s IMHEN to set up NAMA in waste management

Application of AIM for research in Vietnam• AIM has been introduced into Vietnam since 2010, initiallywith demonstration for energy sector with ExSS module.
• The KU has helped ISPONRE to train some key staff forusing AIM tool for estimation of mitigation potentials ofVietnam in various sectors.
• Currently, ISPONRE is trying to use this model (ExSS-Wastemodel) to forecast GHG emission and develop scenario of
GHG mitigation for the waste sector of Vietnam withsupport from KU. The work is in progress.
• Data collection for the AIM model and the suitability of themodel for using currently available data seem to be themajor challenges for its application in practice. Somecompromised solution is should be found!

Challenges for LCS development and AIM application inVietnam
The main disadvantages in following low carbon development alsocomes from the characteristics of a developing country, such as
Vietnam, typically:• the historically low price of basic commodities, including the price ofenergy and electricity, hinder the implementation of new technologies tosave materials and energy due to the high initial investment.
• the instability of the production in Vietnam, especially small scale
productions in some sectors, do not encourage the entrepreneurs todecide a long-term investment with high-technology to meet criteria of
low carbon development. Many businesses would better rely on lowtech with high consumption of (cheap) energy and materials for quick
recovery of investment and earn short term benefits.
• there is not yet any strict requirement (with due enforcement) that abusiness must meet certain criteria of low-emission. The only driveraffecting decisions of the entrepreneur is the expected benefit frominvestment. As long as the benefit of low-carbon growth can not beproven, it would be more likely that the low-tech investment wouldcontinue dominating.

Challenges for LCS development and AIM application inVietnam• The major challenge for LCS development in Vietnam now is tofind some new market mechanism to replace CDM, which isacceptable by the businesses in win-win basis.
• Some popular mechanisms abroad can not be applied inVietnam, for instance: fit in tariff for renewable energy: national
budget can not afford for the burden of subsidy.
• To deploy application of AIM in Vietnam, the key difficulty isdata availability for the model with suitable assumption of
future tendency of social development in Vietnam. Two ways tosolve this problem:– Find way to improve data collection to meet the requirements of themodel, or– Improve/modify the model structure to some suitable form to use
currently available dataTHANK YOU