Recent research on climatechange impacts assessment andadaptation policies in Japan

Yasuaki Hijioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies
19th AIM International Workshop 2013 @ NIES

Toward to Adaptation-Japanese Research Activities

Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S-8”Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010-14, 12programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation

Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science andTechnology
Ministry of Environment, FY2010-14, 12 sub-teams, Assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government

Japan Science and Technology Agency, FY2010-14, 4 programs, Reform programfor generating new social systems adapted to climate change

Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies toaddress global warming in the agriculture, forestry andFisheries


Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010-14 , 7 programs2

Toward to Adaptation-Japanese Adaptation Policies

Fourth Basic Environmental Plan (April, 2012)Innovative Energy/Environmental Plan (September, 2012)

Necessity of adaptation consideration and promotion is included for the first time.
From the view point of dealing with unavoidable climate change impacts,
national adaptation plan will be drawn up.

Integrated report on observation, projection and impact
assessment of climate change (March, 2013)
National Adaptation PlanEstablishment of the subcommittee “climate change impact assessment” in theCentral Environment Council (July, 2013)
Organizing the scientific knowledge of climate change, projection, impact and risk
assessment (March, 2013)
Finalizing the climate change impact/risk assessment (September, 2014)
National Adaptation plan will be approved by the Japanese cabinet (summer,2015)
3Environment Research & TechnologyDevelopment Fund “S-8”Ministry of the Environment
Targeted area : Whole and regional area in Japan andAsia-Pacific region
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture,coastal zones, human healthResearch period: Period I (2010-2012) + Period II (20013-2014)


Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Number of sub-themes: 12

 Impact assessment in whole Japan: 9
 Impact assessment in Japanese regional area: 2
 Impact assessment in Asian developing countries: 14

Objectives of S-8 projectTo assess climate change impact assessment focusing
on whole Japan under different GHG concentration
stabilization scenarios and adaptation strategies

Utilization of new climate scenario with high accuracy andresolution
Development of advanced model for assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation strategy

To develop a planning method for adaptation
strategy focusing on Japanese local government anddeveloping countries in Asia-Pacific regionDevelopment of simplified tool to assess the impacts of,and vulnerabilities and adaptation to, climate change
Consideration of uncertainty in the assessment
5Socio-Economic
ScenariosClimate Scenarios【Theme 1】 Research on highly reliable quantitative
assessment of climate change impacts throughout
JapanBio.

AgriDisasterHealth

Simplified
assessment
methodRegional
assessment
methodWater

Climate Scenario downscaler
Economic assessment
Integrated assessment model
Feedback from local
government【Theme 2】

Research on impact
assessment andcomprehensive
adaptation policies
at the local
government level

Feedback from developing
country【Theme 3】

Research on indexes ofvulnerability andadaptation effects
in the Asia-PacificRegion
Various impact andadaptation studies inthe Asia-Pacific region

Local government
consortium
Transmission of research results to domestic andinternational policymaking

Common scenario development
Background and objective
Common scenario: Multi-sector assessment of IAV to CC
Uncertainty: Multi Scenarios and GCMs
Issues to resolve: Number of scenariosが多すぎると実施困難
Common scenarios of first and second edition
Common scenario
S4 scenario

Climate scenario
Socio-eco. File
Data GCM Scenario scenario distribution
CMIP3
22-

S8 fist edition
S8 second edition

CMIP3
CMIP54413

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FinishedFinished7

AIM/Adaptation[Policy]


AIM/Adaptation[Policy]
Objective••

Integrating research outcomes developed by the theme 1
Providing the research outcomes to theme 2

Database type tool including socio-economic scenarios,
Climate scenarios, Results of impact assessment
Prefectural and municipal levels

8Simpleregression

AIM/Adaptation[Policy]

Climate/Socioeconomicscenarios
GDPPop.

Pattern scalingw/, w/o adaptation

Climate
Water

Bio.

Agri.

Disaster

HealthImpact response functions/Simulation results
9Application of S-8 research results into
regional adaptation strategies
Nagano Prefecture

Clarification of adaptation in “Environment and Energy Plan in Nagano –Third Prefectural Plan against Climate Change in Nagano”
Participation in S-8 project

Saitama Prefecture

Setting Special committee as one part of the revision of global warming
prevention
Participation in S-8 project

Mie PrefectureImplementing integrated assessment of climate change (2012)
S-8 member’s consultation

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Contribution to Japanese National
Adaptation Plan

Consultation
 Dr. Harasawa and Dr. Takahashi are formally involved in thesubcommittee “climate change impact assessment” in theCentral Environment Council.

Utilization of assessment models for climatechange AIM Impact Team been organizing to conduct impact
assessment considering adaptation options collaboratingwith the S-8 members.

11Conclusion


AIM Impact Team has managed the S-8 projectand has been greatly contributing to theprocess of development of Japanese National
Adaptation Plan.
 How can AIM Impact Team keep the Japanese IAV
research network after finishing the S-8 project?
 How can AIM Impact Team contribute to Japaneseregional adaptation plans/strategies?

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Thank you for your kind attention!

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