DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CARBON SCENARIO
FOR WASTE SECTOR IN VIETNAMISPONRE Team
Dr. Nguyen Van Tai
Mr. Nguyen Hoang Minh
Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam
Dr. Nguyen Lanh
Dr. Nguyen Trung Thang
Ms. Tran Thi Thu Hue

KU TeamProf. Yuzuru Matsuoka
Dr. Nguyen Thai Hoa
Dr. Kei Gomi

1Presentation at AIM 20th International Workshop
NIES, Tsukuba
23/01/ 2015

2

1. EXSS-WASTE MODEL
2. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
3. FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDY
4. WASTE GENERATION SCENARIO
5. POLICY AND GHG REDUCTION SCENARIOS

3

1. EXSS-WASTE MODEL

EXSS-WASTE MODEL (1)An extended module of Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)
Describing waste generation, management and GHG emission
A time series model4

Coverage of the model is basically corresponding to Waste
sector in IPCC 2006 guideline.

•Generation of solid waste from residential, commercial,industrial and construction sector•

Management of solid waste from the sectors above•

GHG generation from burning of fossil carbon in theincinerated waste•

GHG generation from decomposition of organic carbon inthe disposal waste•

Generation of waste water from all sectors•GHG generation from waste water treatment•CH4 recovery and emission in the GHG above

5

EXSS-WASTE MODEL (2)TARGETED GHGSManagement

Relevant material

Main GHG

Disposal

Organic carbon inSW

CH4, N2O

Incineration

Fossil carbon inSW

CO2Biologicaltreatment

Organic carbon in
SW and WW

CH4, N2O

6

SW: Solid waste
WW: Waste water7

2. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDYBACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Population

2010: 86,933 mill

100,000
1000 persons

Base year (2005):
83,106 mil.

Population Growth
80,00060,00040,00020,000-Population Estimation
120,000Growth rate is
slowdown

2050: 109,9 mill

80,00060,00040,00020,000
2010

2020

2030

Source: GSO

2050

82030: 109,2 mill

1000 persons

2020: 96.3 mill

100,000BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Economic growth
Economic Growth2,500,000

High growth rate
(1990-2010)

Serivices1,500,000

Industry and Contruction
1,000,000
Agriculture, Forestry andAquaculture
500,000

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Source: GSO (2011)

9Economic size in 2010
increase 47 times
compare with 1990

Billion VND

Recent year isslowdown

2,000,000

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Economic growth
Economic Structure
100

Economic structurechange:90

Increase industry andconstruction sector

60

Service50

Industry and Construction

40

Agriculture, Forestry andAquaculture30
20100Source: GSO

101990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Decrease slightly
Service70%

Decrease Agriculture,Forestry andAquaculture80

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
General information
MONRE

MOC

MOH

Indirectmanagement

MPI andMOF

Directmanagement

Industrial SW

Municipal SW

Financialrelationship

Medical SW

1. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) – major state authority– responsible for environmental issues in general and waste in specific
2. Ministry of Construction (MOC) – responsible for planning and construction oftreatment and disposal facilities
3. Urban environmental companies (URENCOs); key players in collection,
treatment and disposal in urban areas of Vietnam

5. Ministry of Planning and Investment and Ministry of Finance – Financial support

11

4. Other ministries and provincial People’s Committee – waste management
activities

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Legal document on Waste management
 The National Strategies set the target for the handling of Solid waste

management in the target year of 2015, 2020 and 2025.
• ”Decision No.2149/QD-TTG for National Strategy on Integrated
Solid Waste Management (ISWM) up to 2025 and Vision 2050” withthe joint work of MOC and MONRE in 2009.
• Decision 1216/QD-TTg of September 05, 2012 for National Strategy
on Environment Protection to 2020, with Visions to 2030
•Decision No.1393/QD-TTG of September 25, 2012 for National
strategy on green growth for the period 2011- 2020 with vision to2050.
•Decision 432/QĐ-TTg of April 12, 2012 for Viet Nam Sustainable
Development Strategy for 2011-2020.

12

 The target for the handling of Waste water management inmunicipal and industry.
•Decision 1930/QĐ-TTg of November 20, 2009 for orientations fordevelopment of water drainage in Vietnamese urban centers andindustrial parks up to 2025. and a vision towards 2050.

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Legal document on Waste management
 Economic instruments relating to Municipal waste include incentives
such as subsidies, low-interest finance, tax exemption, anddisincentives like fees, charges/fines.

13• Decree No. 174/2007/ND-CP dated 29 Nov. 2007 on Environmental
Protection Fee for Solid Waste.
• 205 Law on Environmental Protection, Decree No. 59/2007/ND-CPof April 9, 2007 for Solid waste management, Decree No.
04/2009/ND-CP of January 14, 2009 providing for incentives andsupports for environmental protection activities.
• Law on Environmental Protection 2005 outlines the incentives forenvironmental projects.
• Decree No. 81/2006/ND-CP dated 09 Aug. 2006 on theAdministrative Punishment of Violation in Environmental Protection
 it has a Chapter on Violation in Solid Waste Management.
• Decree No 50/2013/ND-CP dated 09-08-2013 on prescribing
retrieval and disposal of discarded products.
• Decree No 25/2013/ND-CP dated 29-03-2013 on Environmental
Protection Fee for Waste Water

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Legal document on Waste management
Technology for Wastewater Management• Decision No.2139/QD-TTG dated 05/12/2011, National Strategy
on Climate Change on applying of waste treatment advanced
technology in urban and rural; enhancing the management,
industrial and urban wastewater treatment.
Methane recovery from the production facilities• Decision No.1474/QD-TTG dated 05/12/2011, National Action
Plan on Climate Change for the period 2012-2020 withrecovering methane by applying the modern technology.

14• Decision No.1775/QD-TTG dated 21/11/2012, Projectof greenhouse gas emission management; managementof carbon credit business activities to the world market.

15

3. FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDYFRAMEWORK
Area: Vietnam
Sector: Waste (solid waste and wastewater)
Base year: 2005
Target year: 2020, 2030, 2050
History data from 1990
Target GHGs: CH4: solid waste in disposal site, CH4: wastewater
CO2: incineration, CH4 & N2O: composted solid waste
Target sectors: Municipal, commercial, industry, construction,
Scenarios:16• Baseline: no countermeasure applied to reduce GHG emission• CM: (Countermeasure) with countermeasures based on current
national strategies on solid waste management for Vietnam

TARGETED GHG ESTIMATIONS AMONG IPCC, DRAFTREPORT INVENTORY 2005 AND THIS STUDY

CodeWaste

4A

Solid Waste
Disposal

4B

BiologicalTreatment

Target
GHGs
CH4

Draft report of inventory 2005
TargetGHGs

CodeWaste

6A

Solid Waste
Disposal

CH4

Humansewage

N2O

CH4, N2O 6B

4C

CH4,Incineration &6C
Open-burning N2O, CO2

4D

Waste water CH4, N2O

Incineration CO2, N2O

6B1,
Wastewater
6B2

CH4

This study’s estimation 2013

CodeWaste

Target
GHGs

Solid Waste (res,com)

CH4,
N20,
CO2

Solid Waste (ind,cst)

CH4,
N20

Waste water (ind,mun)

CH4,N02

17

IPCC guideline 2006

COLLECTED AND ESTIMATED DATA/PARAMETER
Solid waste• Output of industry (PD)• Gross domestic product at constant 1994 prices (GDP)• Input – output table of Vietnam in 2005

• Solid waste generation• Per capita• Total of Vietnam• Composition of sector and category of waste• Composition of solid waste management• Recycle, incineration, composting, landfill• Parameters of waste decomposition••••

Organic carbon fraction
Decay parameter
Oxidation factor
CH4 composition in generated gas• Parameters of fossil carbon composition
Waste water18• Industrial and domestic waste water generation• Parameters of CH4 generation from waste water

DATA SOURCE
Data
Output of industry

Waste generation

Population

Source- GDP at constant 1994 prices from 1995 to 2010 – Government Statistic Office (GSO)- Input – output table of Vietnam in 2005, Bui Trinh- Economic – social development strategy 2011-2020- Economy of South Korea- Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of Vietnam(2009): National strategy for integrated management of solid waste up to 2025 and vision
towards 2050.
- VN environmental monitoring 2004: Solid Waste (MONRE, 2004)
Population and population growth rate– Government Statistic Office (GSO)
www.gso.org.vn

Parameters of waste
decomposition
Waste water (municipal,- IPCC (2006): 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by
the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K.,
Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan., Volume 5, Waste.
- Draft report of inventory 2005
-Draft report of inventory 2005

19- Draft report of inventory 2005
Composition of sector and-JICA et al (2011): The study on Urban Environmental Management in Vietnam - Vol 6,
category of waste
study report on Solid Waste Management in Vietnam.
- Data is estimated by expert in 2020, 2030 and 2050.
- Alexis et al. (2009) Sustainable recycling of municipal solid waste in developing countries,Waste Management 29 (2009) 915-923.
- Thanh et al. (2009) Municipal solid waster management in Vietnam: Status and theComposition of solid waste strategic actions, International Journal Environmental Research, 5(2): 285-296.
management- With CM: “Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources ofVietnam (2009): National strategy for integrated management of solid waste up to 2025
and vision towards 2050”

20

4. WASTE GENERATION SCENARIO

Unit

2005(***)

2005 (*)

2007 (**)

2020(**)

2020(*)

2025(**)

2030(*)

2050 (*)

1000-

83106

85155

10558596317

115599109249109902

0.22

0.25

0.56

0.63

0.76

0.63

0.96

-

14.3

39.8-58.8-

-

-

6.48

7.9

21.7

22.27

32.0

25.26

38.57

-

1.82

1.8

5.0

3.62

7.3

29.75

81.30

-

3.22

3.2

9.2

7.37

13.4

17.25

43.57

Sludge

-

-

1.4

3.9

-

5.8

-

-

Industry
Rural-

4.79
-

4.8
9.1

20.9
8.8

18.77
-

27.8
7.6

28.51
-

64.83
-

Village Craft

-

-

1.0

2.5-

3.6

-

-

Medical

-

-

0.2

0.3

-

0.3

-

-

Hazardous

-

-

2.4

9.2

-

12.4

-

-

-

16.31

31.7

81.4

52.03

110.3

100.77228.67

Population
Per capita
waste
generation
Municipalkg/day

0.3(rural)
million
4.8
ton/year (disposal)

Residential

Commercial

Construction

Total

0.7(urban)

millionton/year(*): This study(**)Ministry of Construction, 2009(***) Draft report of inventory 2005

21

WASTE GENERATIONWASTE GENERATION
250000000

9 times

200000000

150000000

4.5 times

constructionindustrycommercial

100000000

2 timesmunicipal

50000000

022

Waste generation was estimated by Population and Outputs ofindustries. Per capita waste generation in years between 2005,
2020, 2030 and 2050 was interpolated linearly.

WASTE GENERATION
Solid Waste Generation byManagement options

Waste Water Generationby Management Options

12,000250,000

10,000200,000

kton

composting
landfill

Kton

8,000
150,000

discharge

6,000

treatment

recycling

100,000

4,000
50,000

2,000

-

23

2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
2037
2041
2045
2049

2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
2037
2041
2045
2049

-WASTE GENERATION BY SECTOR
Waste Generation by Sector in 2005
construction
18%

Waste Generation by Sector by 2020
construction
13%

municipal
42%
industry
30%

municipal
43%
industry37%

commerce
10%

Waste Generation by Sector in 2030
municipal
25%

industry
31%

Waste Generation in 2050
construction
18%

municipal
17%

industry31%
commerce
28%

commerce
34%

24

construction
16%commerce7%

25

5. POLICY AND GHG REDUCTION SCENARIOSSCENARIOS AND MITIGATION OPTIONS
2 scenarios are simulated as below
Baseline: Without countermeasures to reduce GHG emission.
CM: With countermeasures which refer to National Strategies on Solid Waste Managementin Vietnam (NSWM) and National Strategy for Environmental Protection in 2020 and vision
toward 2030
Waste generation is common in both scenarios
Summary of Solid waste management options in National Strategies on Solid Waste
Management in VietnamSectorManagement Option
Collected

Municipal (urban) Recycled, Composted,and Energy Recoverd
Collected
Municipal (rural)
TreatedMunicipal
Collected(for VN)
TreatedCollected
Construction
Recycled
Collected
Industry

26

SourceRecycled, Composted,and Energy Recovered

2015
85.0%

2020
90.0%

2025
100.0%

2050
100.0%

60.0%

85.0%

90.0%

100.0%

36.0%
4.0%
54.1%
24.7%
50.0%
30.0%
80.0%

63.0%
7.0%
73.0%
35.9%
80.0%
50.0%
90.0%

81.0%
9.0%
88.0%
39.0%
90.0%
60.0%
100.0%

90.0%
10.0%
93.7%
43.3%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

70%

75%

100%

100%

NSWM

NSWM

NSWM

Resolution 24

SCENARIOS AND MITIGATION OPTIONS
Summary of Waste water management options in National Strategies on Solid
Waste Management in Vietnam

SectorManagementOption

2015

2020

2050

Discharge

70%

30%

0%

Treatment

30%

70%

100%

Discharge

25%

5%

0%

Treatment

75%

95%

100%

NEPS

NEPS

Resolution No
24

Municipal
waste waterIndustrial
waste waterSource

27

COMPOSITION OF WASTE MANAGEMENT
Summary of management options input to the model based on
National Strategies
Municipal Waste
Recycling

Incineration

Composting

Disposal

2015

22%0%

4%

74%

2020

25%

1%

8%

65%

202527%

3%

11%

60%

2030

27%

6%

12%

56%

Recycling

Incineration

Composting

Disposal

2015

80%

0%0%

20%

2020

85%

0%

0%

15%

2025

100%

0%0%

0%

2050

100%

0%

0%

0%

28

Construction Waste

COMPOSITION OF WASTE MANAGEMENT
Industrial waste
Recycling

Incineration

Composting

Disposal

2015

55%

30%

0%

15%

2020

54%

32%

0%

14%

2025

65%

35%

0%

0%

2050

65%

35%

0%

0%

CH4 recovery rate from disposal gas andwaste water

biogas generated fromCM

Disposal

Waste water

Disposal

Waste water

2005

0%0%

0%0%

2015

0%

0%0%0%

2020

0%5%25%

25%

2050

0%

0%

50%

50%

29

BaselineWASTE GENERATION BY MANAGEMENT OPTIONSBAUCM Solid Waste Generation by
Management Options (CM)

Solid Waste Generation by
Management Options (BAU)

250,000

250,000

200,000

composting
landfill

100,000kton

150,000

incineration

150,000

composting
100,000

landfill

recycling

recycling

50,00050,000

-

2005

2020

2030

2005

2050

Waste Water Generation by
Management Options (BAU)

2020

2030

2050

Waste Water Generation by
Management Options (CM)12,00012,00010,00010,000

8,000

8,000
discharge

6,000

treatment

4,000

kton

discharge

6,000

treatment

4,000

2,000
2,00030

kton

kton

200,000

2005

2020

2030

2050

2005

2020

2030

2050

PROJECTED GHG EMISSIONS (SOLID WASTE 1)
BAU

GHGs Emission by Sector (BAU)

CM

180,000

180,000

160,000

160,000

140,000

120,000
construction

100,000

industry

80,000commerce

60,000municipal

40,000kton CO2 eq

140,000
kton CO2 eq

GHGs Emission by Sector (CM)120,000
construction

100,000

industry

80,000commerce

60,000municipal

40,00020,00020,000

-

2005

2020

2030

2005

2050

GHGs Emission in BAU and CM

2020

2030

2050

% GHGs Reduction

180,000

60%

140,000

50%

120,000

40%

100,000
BAU

80,00030%
51%CM60,00020%
31%

40,00010%

20,000
2005

2020

2030

2050

17%

31

kton CO2eq

160,000

0%
2020

2030

2050

PROJECTED GHG EMISSION BY (SOLID WASTE 2)
CM
GHGs Emission from Solid Waste byManagement Option in BAU(kton CO2 eq)

180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,00060,00040,00020,000-composting
landfill

2020

2030

2050

GHGs Emission from Solid Waste byManagement Option in CM(kton CO2 eq)
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,00060,00040,00020,000-composting
landfill
incineration

2020

GHGs Emission from Waste Water byManagement Option in BAU(kton CO2 eq)

2030

2050

GHGs Emission from Waste Water byManagement Option in CM(kton CO2 eq)
30,00030,00025,00025,00020,00020,00015,00010,000discharge

15,000discharge

treatment

10,000treatment

5,000

5,000-2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

32

BAU

CONCLUSION
Solid waste generate about 2 times, 4,5 times and9 times in 2020, 2030 and 2050, respectively
compared to 2005
GHG emission from Waste is expected to increase
more than 2,9 times, 5,3 times and 12 times in2020, 2030 and 2050, respectively compared to2005

33

By applying current National Strategies fromVietnam, GHG emission is estimated to reduce by
16% in 2020 and 31% in 2030 and 51% in2050
compared to BaU

34

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION