End-Use Model for Indonesia Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Energy
SectorRetno G Dewi, Ucok W.R. Siagian, Bintang B Yuwono, Iwan Hendrawan, and Rias Parinderawati
Center for Research on Energy Policy, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
gelang@che.itb.ac.id or gelangdewi@yahoo.com
Abstract
The paper presents results of an academic study on the development of End-Use Model for Indonesia
Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Energy Sector. The study is carried out to identify the GHG
reduction potential and costs of mitigation actions to reduce GHG emission in energy sector for 2020
and 2050. Short term analysis (2020) is to be used for assessing the achievement of mitigation actions
to meet national target of GHG reduction in energy sector as stated in RAN GRK (National GHG
Mitigation Action Plan) while long term analysis (2050) is to be used for assessing the development
paths of energy sector toward ‘Low Carbon Development’. The paper also presents the assessment
results of the role of research community in implementing Low Carbon Concepts for National EnergyDevelopment.
Modelling tool used in this research is End Use Model - GAMS (General Algebraic ModellingSystem) supported by various current technical, economic and social parameters. Two scenarios aredeveloped to envision ‘Indonesia Low Carbon Development Paths of Energy Sector’, i.e. business asusual (BAU) and mitigation scenarios. BaU scenario envisions the development paths of energy sector
and the associated GHG without considering mitigation efforts while mitigation scenario is developed
to envision the development paths by including mitigation efforts to reduce GHG emissions. The baseyear for projection scenarios is 2005 and the target year is 2020 (short term analysis) and 2050 (longterm analysis).
The result of this study shows that under the BaU, final energy consumption in Indonesia is estimatedto increase 2.91 times from 145 mtoe (2005) to 357 mtoe (2020) or 8.55 times to 983 mtoe (2050).
Under the same scenario, primary energy supply will increase 2.46 times from 145 mtoe (2005) to 357
mtoe (2020) or 9.65 times to 1,399 mtoe (2050). The GHG emission associated with this energy
consumption is estimated to increase 2.91 times from 0.346 GTon CO2e (2005) to 1.009 GTon CO2e(2020) or 8.55 times to 2.96 GTon CO2e (2050). The study identifies and assess mitigation options
selected from the optimization process using end use model, and the associated GHG emission
reduction potential and estimates the cost of each of these options as cost (USD) per ton carbon
reduced. The highest increase in energy consumption are majorly projected from industrial sector andfreight transportation. There is a significant decrease in power sector GHG emission which is mainly
contributed by the introduction of Nuclear (16%) and Coal-CCS (42%). While in the transportation
sector the introduction and development of Biofuel and passenger railway transport has cut a third andhalf the GHG emission of transportation sector in 2020 and 2050 respectively.
Closing remarks; In order to achieve best concluding result, in this research it is required toaccumulate more credible and market-integrated data and information regarding supply, demand, andtechnologies. There will be further development of the model to provide best recommendation for
Government of Indonesia in setting and reinforcing energy sector development policies and pathways.
Keywords: energy development path, cost of mitigation, End-Use GAMS, energy technology
mitigations, Low carbon development, low cost optimization, RAN-GRK