<II. Medium-sized and SMEs>7)

1

Business outlook and demand forecast[Table 2-1-1] Transition of Japan’s economic growth rate forecasts (all industries basis)（％）

Nominal economic growth rate
Survey year

FY

Real economic growth rate

Forecast for the
next fiscal year

Forecast for the
next 3 years

Forecast for the
next 5 years

Forecast for the
next fiscal year

Forecast for the
next 3 years

Forecast for the
next 5 years

2016

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.0

1.0

1.0

2017

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.0

2018

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.1

Note) With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the
FY2018survey refers to the forecast for FY2019; the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2019
to FY2021; and the “forecast for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2019 to FY2023 (fiscal year average).

[Fig. 2-1-1] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by industry
compared to the previous year’s results (next fiscal year)
FY2017 survey
FY2018 survey

(%)

3.0

2.0

Non-manufacturing

Other

Processing-type

Material-type

Manufacturing

0.0

All industries

1.07) Medium-sized and SMEs with a capital of 0.1 to 1 billion yen (not incl.) among enterprises all over Japan (excl.

enterprises covered in I. Listed Companies) (hereinafter “Medium-sized and SMEs.”) The survey of Medium-sized
and SMEs started in FY2016.

- 35 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

-1.0- 36 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)
Pulp & Paper

Other Products

Retail Trade

Textiles & Apparels

Fishery, Agriculture & Forestry

FY2017 survey

Glass & Ceramics Products

Foods

Land Transportation

Pharmaceutical

Marine Transportation(%)

Metal Products

Wholesale Trade

MiningTransportation Equipment

Rubber Products

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Securities & Commodity Futures

Services

Electric Power & Gas

Chemicals

MachineryIron & SteelOther Financing Businesses

Oil & Coal Products

Nonferrous Metals

Air Transportation

Construction

Real Estate

Information & Communication

Precision Instruments

Electric Appliances

Insurance

All industries[Fig. 2-1-2] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by sector
compared to the previous year’s results (next fiscal year)

2.0
FY2018 survey

1.0

0.0

Note) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding companies in the FY2017 and FY2018 survey.

Exchange rates[Fig. 2-2-1]Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate by industry

Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year

(yen/dollar)

Break-even yen-dollar rate

130
120
110
100
90
80

Yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before
the survey (Dec.2018) : 112.5 yen/dollar

Non-manufacturing

Other

Processing-type

Material-type

60

Manufacturing

70
All industries

2

Note 1) “Forecast yen-dollar rate” is the average of the class values, while “break-even yen-dollar rate” is theaverage of the actual reported numbers.
Note 2) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only enterprises that conduct exports.

- 37 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

[Fig. 2-2-2] Break-even yen-dollar rate by sector(yen/dollar)
All industries average : 106.9 yen/dollar

120
110
100
90
80

Land Transportation

Electric Power & Gas

Other Financing Businesses

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Real Estate

Securities & Commodity Futures

Other Products

Textiles & Apparels

Wholesale Trade

Marine Transportation

Pulp & Paper

Services

Glass & Ceramics Products

Foods

Stronger yen than average

Machinery

Rubber Products

Information & Communication

Precision Instruments

Metal Products

Transportation Equipment

Nonferrous Metals

Chemicals

Iron & SteelElectric Appliances

Construction

Pharmaceutical

60

Retail Trade70

Weaker yen than average

Note 1) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only enterprises that conduct exports(average of reported numbers).
Note 2) Only sectors with 5 or more responding enterprises are included.

[Table 2-2-1] Transition of the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate(all industries basis)(yen/dollar)

Survey year

FY

2016
2017
2018

Forecast yen-dollar
rate after 1 year

Break-even yendollar rate

Yen-dollar rate in
the month
immediately
before the survey

113.1
113.9
111.7

105.6
106.4
106.9

116.0
113.0
112.5

Difference
Forecast yen-dollar rate
Yen-dollar rate for the monthafter 1 year
immediately before the survey– Break-even yen-dollar rate – Break-even yen-dollar rate

7.5
7.5
4.8

10.4
6.6
5.5

Note 1) “Forecast yen-dollar rate” is the average of the class values, while “break-even yen-dollar rate” is the average ofthe actual reported numbers.
Note 2) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only companies that conduct exports.
Note 3) “Yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey” refers to figures in December.

- 38 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

Prices[Table 2-3-1] Forecast rates of changes in average purchase and sales prices and thechange in the terms of trade after 1 year by industry（％、％points）
Average purchase price

Average sales price

FY2018surveyFY2017
surveyFY2018surveyFY2017
surveyFY2018surveyFY2017
survey

3.3

3.2

1.8

1.6

-1.5

-1.6

3.6

3.5

1.7

1.6

-1.9

-2.0

Material-type

3.7

3.9

2.4

2.2

-1.3

-1.7

Processing-type

3.2

2.8

0.9

0.8

-2.3

-2.0

Other

3.8

3.7

1.8

1.6

-2.0

-2.2

3.0

2.8

1.9

1.7

-1.2

-1.1

All industries
Manufacturing

Industry3

Non-manufacturing

Terms of trade

Note 1) Terms of Trade = Rate of change in average sales price – rate of change in average purchase priceNote 2) Terms of trade are derived from the rate of change of the average sales price and the rate of change of the averagepurchase price (Refer to FY2018 Statistical Tables <II. Medium-sized and SMEs> 3-1 and 3-2) that include two
decimal points. Therefore, they may not always coincide with figures calculated from the rate of change in averagesales prices and the rate of change in average purchase price in the table above due to rounding.

- 39 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

4

Change in capital investment[Fig. 2-4-1]Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased capital investment

or are expecting an increase/decrease in capital investment for the past 3 years or
（％）
100
90

over the next 3 years (all industries)
9.1

8.5

8.9

9.5

8.0

7.4

19.6

17.7

64.0

66.0

10.1

9.4

9.9

9.0

7.6

8.5

17.8

17.0

65.2

64.6

80
70

18.8

18.8

60
50
40
30

62.8

No capital investment was made./No capital investment is planned.

20

Decrease
No change

10
0

62.2

Increase

FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2016

Past 3 years

FY2017FY2018

Next 3 years

Survey year(FY)Note 1) Increase: Percentage of enterprises responding over 0%, No change: Percentage of enterprises responding 0%,
Decrease: Percentage of enterprises responding less than 0%.
Note 2) The “past 3 years” means the period from FY2016 to FY2018.
Note 3) The “next 3 years” means the period from FY2019 to FY2021.

[Fig. 2-4-2] Growth rate of capital investment by sector
Past 3 years

（％）
15.0

Next 3 years

10.0

5.0

Air Transportation
Mining
Machinery
Pharmaceutical
Chemicals
Metal Products
Foods
Transportation Equipment
Electric Appliances
Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services
Fishery, Agriculture & Forestry
Marine Transportation
Other Products
Information & Communication
Textiles & Apparels
Services
Retail Trade
Rubber Products
Pulp & Paper
Electric Power & Gas
Nonferrous Metals
Precision Instruments
Land Transportation
Glass & Ceramics Products
Iron & SteelOther Financing Businesses
Real Estate
Wholesale Trade
Oil & Coal Products
Securities & Commodity Futures
Construction
Insurance-5.0

All industries

0.0

Note 1) The “Past 3 years” represents the growth rate from FY2016 to FY2018 (fiscal year average), and the “next 3
years” represents growth rate forecasts from FY2019 to FY2021 (fiscal year average).
Note 2) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding enterprises for both “past 3 years” and “next 3 years.”- 40 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

5

Change in the number of employees[Fig. 2-5-1]Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased employees orare expecting an increase/decrease in employees for the past 3 years or over100
90

the next 3 years (all industries)

（％）

22.1

21.1

22.4

25.5

25.3

24.2

52.5

53.6

53.4

11.5

11.1

12.2

30.3

29.6

29.0

58.3

59.4

58.7

80
70
60
50
40
30
20

Decrease

100FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2016

Past 3 years

No change

FY2017

Increase

FY2018

Next 3 years

Survey year

Note 1) Increase: Percentage of enterprises responding over 0%, No change: Percentage of enterprises responding 0%,
Decrease: Percentage of enterprises responding less than 0%.
Note 2) The “past 3 years” means the period from FY2016 to FY2018.
Note 3) The “next 3 years” means the period from FY2019 to FY2021.

- 41 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

[Fig. 2-5-2] Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased full-time
employees or are expecting an increase/decrease in full-time employees
among their employees for the past 3 years or over the next 3 years (allindustries)
（％）
100
90

21.7

21.2

21.4

11.8

11.0

12.1

29.9

29.0

29.2

58.4

59.9

58.6

80
70
60

25.8

26.2

25.3

52.4

52.6

53.3

50
40
30
20
Decrease

100FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2016

Past 3 years

No change

FY2017

Increase

FY2018

Next 3 years

Survey year
Note 1) Increase: Percentage of enterprises responding over 0%, No change: Percentage of enterprises responding 0%,
Decrease: Percentage of enterprises responding less than 0%.
Note 2) The “past 3 years” means the period from FY2016 to FY2018.
Note 3) The “next 3 years” means the period from FY2019 to FY2021.

- 42 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

6

Overseas production ratio and reverse imports ratio[Fig. 2-6-1] Ratio of companies that conduct overseas production (manufacturing industries)
(%)

25.0

20.0

15.0

12.0

10.0

12.1

12.4

5.0
Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

0.0
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Note) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively.

- 43 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)(FY)

[Fig. 2-6-2] Transition of overseas production ratios (manufacturing industries)
(%)

8.0

6.0

4.0

4.1

3.7

3.7

2.0
Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

0.0
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023 (FY)

Note 1) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively.
Note 2) Simple average of responding enterprises including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.

[Fig. 2-6-3] Overseas production ratio by sector (manufacturing industries)(%)

FY2017 actual result

FY2018 estimate

FY2023 forecast

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0

Oil & Coal Products

Pharmaceutical

Foods

Pulp & Paper

Glass & Ceramics
Products

Iron & Steel

Nonferrous Metals

Machinery

Other Products

Chemicals

Metal ProductsElectric Appliances

Rubber Products

Transportation
Equipment

Precision Instruments

Textiles & Apparels

0.0

Manufacturing

2.0

Note 1) Simple average of responding enterprises including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas
production ratio.
Note 2) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding enterprises in all of “FY2017 actual result,”“FY2018 estimate” and “FY2023 forecast.”- 44 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

[Fig. 2-6-4] The percentage of companies expecting an increase or a decreasein overseas production ratio (Manufacturing)
(%)
100%

2.5

2.2

1.8

88.2

89.2

90.7

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Decrease

20%

No change

Increase

10%
0%

9.3
2016

8.7

7.5

2017

2018

Survey year (FY)Note) Increase: “Forecast” – “Estimate” ＞ 0, No change: “Forecast” – “Estimate” = 0, Decrease: “Forecast” – “Estimate” ＜ 0.
(In FY2018, if the values after subtracting “FY2018 estimate” from “FY2023 forecast” of each responding company are plus,
equal, and minus, it is “Increase,” “No change,” and “Decrease.”)- 45 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

[Fig. 2-6-5] Transition of the ratio of reverse imports (manufacturing industries)
(%)

40
35

27.2

30

25.7

24.6

25
20
15
10
5

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other

0
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

(FY)

Note 1) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively.
Note 2) This is a simple average which excludes enterprises reporting 0.0% overseas production ratio,
while it includes enterprises answering 0.0% reverse imports ratio.

- 46 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

[Table 2-6-1] Reason for having an overseas production base (Main reason + Other relevant reasons)
Top 5 reasons (Manufacturing industries)
FY2018 survey（％）

Manufacturing① Labor costs are low④ Strong demand
exists, or demand isforecast to expand, forour products in the local
market(s) and markets
in neighboring countries⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)following entry by ourparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on⑤ We can catereffectively to overseas
users’ needs③ We can enjoy low
costs of materials,
overall production
processes, distributions,and land/buildings

Material-type

53.4④ Strong demand
exists, or demand isforecast to expand, forour products in the local
market(s) and markets
in neighboring countries

46.0① Labor costs are low

42.6⑤ We can catereffectively to overseas
users’ needs

33.5⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)following entry by ourparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on

27.8③ We can enjoy low
costs of materials,
overall production
processes, distributions,and land/buildings

Processing-type

Other

50.0

① Labor costs are low

58.7④ Strong demand
exists, or demand isforecast to expand, forour products in the local
market(s) and markets
in neighboring countries

48.1⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)following entry by ourparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on

46.7① Labor costs are low

51.0

44.2

④ Strong demand
exists, or demand isforecast to expand, forour products in the local
market(s) and markets
in neighboring countries

37.3⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)following entry by ourparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on

40.8

38.5

⑤ We can catereffectively to overseas
users’ needs

33.3③ We can enjoy low
costs of materials,
overall production
processes, distributions,and land/buildings

26.5

26.9

③ We can enjoy low
costs of materials,
overall production
processes, distributions,and land/buildings

29.3⑤ We can catereffectively to overseas
users’ needs

22.4

FY2017 survey

55.1

（％）

Manufacturing

Material-type

Processing-type

Other④ Strong demand exists, ordemand is forecast to① Labor costs are low

61.8

expand, for our products inthe local market(s) and

54.8① Labor costs are low

68.8① Labor costs are low

65.3

markets in neighboring
countries④ Strong demand exists, or
expand, for our products inthe local market(s) anddemand is forecast to

overseas market(s)46.1① Labor costs are low

50.0

following entry by our

46.3

parent enterprise or

markets in neighboring⑦ We have entered the⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)overseas market(s)41.9following entry by ourparent enterprise orparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on

customer(s) and so on⑤ We can cater effectively⑤ We can cater effectively

the local market(s) and

51.0⑦ We have entered thedemand is forecast to

37.1

the local market(s) andcountries④ Strong demand exists, or
expand, for our products in

expand, for our products inmarkets in neighboringcustomer(s) and so on

countries

following entry by our④ Strong demand exists, or⑦ We have entered thedemand is forecast to

overseas market(s)36.3

following entry by our

40.8

parent enterprise or

markets in neighboringcustomer(s) and so on

countries③ We can enjoy low costs

to overseas users’ needs

33.0

to overseas users’ needs

35.5⑤ We can cater effectively
to overseas users’ needsof materials, overall

35.0

production processes,

26.5

distributions, andland/buildings③ We can enjoy low costs③ We can enjoy low costs③ We can enjoy low costs⑥We have contracts withof materials, overallof materials, overallof materials, overall

reliable suppliers of parts

production processes,

30.4

production processes,

32.3

production processes,

31.3

and/or raw materials to the

distributions, anddistributions, anddistributions, andlocal facilities in a stableland/buildings

land/buildings

land/buildings

manner

Note 1) The composition ratio of the “Main reason” and “Other relevant reasons” is based on the number of enterprises that
responded.
Note 2) Responding enterprises can choose one “Main reason,” and up to two “Other relevant reasons.”- 47 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

14.3