Summary of LCD studies in Asia
Session 7: Modeling session (2)The 19th AIM International Workshop
December 13-14, 2013
Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES
Tsukuba, Japan
Speaker: Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University, JapanThe 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)1

CONTENTS
 Now, we have conducted 20 national and regional studies inAsia region.
 Explain what we imaged, in these studies, as the vision ofAsian Low Carbon Societies
 Basic research procedure of our LC development scenario
approach Tools prepared for developing Asian Low Carbon
development Scenarios

 Applications to the Asian region and some lessons fromthem
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)2

Outline of the Research on Asian Low
Carbon Development Scenarios
1. Considering domestic and international factors which willchange dramatically in future, the studies tried to creating
visions of Low Carbon Societies, prescribe the transitions,accumulations, and deepening of factors which control therealization of the Societies.
2. We took account of regional distinctive diversified
characteristics of regions, with the qualitative andquantitative methodologies which were prepared in thestudies.
3. We expected the studies to propose positive Asian Low
Carbon Development Actions and roadmaps which realize
the Low Carbon Societies.
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)3

Low Carbon Society Visions and Development
Actions, which the studies imaged were;
By the middle of this century (2030-2050), the societies willrealized the followings;
1. Harmonized with drastically evolving Asian societies andeconomies,
2. Complying with each region's reduction target that consists
with the global low carbon target, under the global,
national and regional constraints on fossil and renewal
energy resources, land resource, and human capacity,
3. Utilizing the most of co-benefits of LC policies andneighboring policies.
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)4

Up to now, we have applied our LCD research approach
to 8 nations and 12 regions in Asia regions
Malaysia

Putrajaya
Japan

Cyberjaya

Kyoto
Shiga

IskandarMalaysia

China

India

Guan Zhou

BhopalDalianAhmedabadThailand

Vietnam

Ratchaburi

Bangladesh

KhonKaen

Indonesia

S. Korea

Cambodia

Kyonggi-do
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)

5•••
•••

Overall research procedure of the LC
Development Scenario approach

Area
Base year
Target year
Covered sectors
Actors/Players
LCD target

Quantifications ofparameters:• Population• Final demand• Transport volumes
and characteristics• Energy service
demand generation• Share of energy kinds,devices• Power supply
volumes,characteristics, andfuture plans

Setting framework
Qualification of Socioeconomic Vision
Quantification of Socioeconomic Visions andGHG emission
Try and error to keep
consistency and unity
among SocioEconomic policies andLCD targets
Analysis of alternative
LCD scenarios andmeasures

•••••
•
•
•

Demography
Lifestyle
EconomyTransport
Building
Resourceefficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply

Evaluation of Scenarios /measures:• Transportation system• Energy service demand
generation• Deployment of newenergy devices• Options of Power supply• Renewable energy• Carbon sink
• etc.

Design LCD Actions
and Roadmaps fromthe analysis
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)6

Some checking points ofLow Carbon Development Scenario development

1. LC Society Visions and Development Actions should be;1-1) Technologically,
1-2) Economically/Financially, and1-3) Institutionallyfeasible and efficient.
→Multi-criteria problem

2. Also, they should be well harmonized, collaborating with related
policies on:2-1) Vitalization of national/regional economy(Job creation, income increase, attraction to foreign direct
investment, and so on),2-2) Enforcement of Environmentarity, Comfortability, andSecurity →Multi-objective problem

3.Importance of quantitativity, logicality, rationality and transparencyof the scenarios and their development procedure
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)7

Tools to support constructing LCD scenarios
Question

Tool developedExplanation

What kind of LCD measures areavailable?

LCM-DB

How to adjust diverse objectives andpreferences among LCD Actions ?

AHP tool

How to manage LCD Actions
systematically ?

LCD-ActionTools

Analytic hierarchy processtool
A group of Tools on Logicalstructure of LCD actions

How to develop quantitative visions, andcheck the feasibility with GHG reduction
targets, industrial structure and so on?

ExSS,WASTE
AFOLU-A

Extended snapshot tools.

AIM/Enduse
AFOLU-B

AIM bottom-up models

What is the optimal technologies
invested and how much are their costs?

Low-carbon measures
database

How much is the impact to the regional
macro-economy of LCD actions ?

AIM/CGEs

AIM Computable generalequilibrium models

How to construct the schedule of LCD
actions?

BCT

Backcasting tool

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)8How to combine the tools in order to keep
consistency and unity among Socio-Economic
policies and LCD actions
Extended snapshottools (ExSSs)

Integrating tools of future
economic, industrial, social andenergy visions with mitigating
options

Designing Snapshotof LCD visions

AIM/CGEs
EconomicTools for keeping macroanalysis
economic consistencyof LCD
among supply, demand
and resource constraints,
and for estimating macroeconomic impacts

Quantification ofLCD scenarios

Engineeringand financialanalysisof LCD

LCD -Action ToolsLogical and Institutional
design of LCD

Low Carbon
Development
Actions andRoadmaps

AIM bottom-up
modelsTools for household’s andiindustry’s energy demand
generation
gprocesses,
technology deployment,
and their impacts on GHG
emission

Tools for connecting model outputs
with LCD Action making process
logically, and to support designing,monitoring and managing the Low
Carbon Strategy progress

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)9An examples of socio-macroeconomic Impact
Evaluation of Alternative LCD Scenarios
Combined outputs of ExSS , CGE, Enduse model, Shiga study• Comparison among one BaU scenario and three alternative LCD scenarios• Technocentric scenario: focused on the vitalization of eco-industry in the region• Agrocentric scenario: focused on the regional renewable energy production• Balanced scenario: balanced mix of Technocentric and Agrocentric scenarios
Scenario

Unityear

Quantified
Targets

SocialMacroeconomic
Impacts

GHG emission
ktCO2eq
TN load to lake Biwakt
TP load to lake Biwa
kt
COD load to lake Biwa
kt
Waste final disposal
kt
Total energy consumption
ktoe
Population
1000
Gross Regional
Bill. JPY/yProduction (GRP)
Implementation costBill. JPY/y(GRP c hange f rom BaU)

Created Job

BaU

Balanced

2030/2000

2000

2030

12876.7
6.7
0.38
16.2
377.8
12145.9
1396.914369.5
6.6
0.39
15.1
400.1
13783.2
1380.8

(%)
11.6
-1.5
2.6
-6.8
5.9
13.5
-1.2

5884.07677.030.5

2030Technocentric2030/2000

6275.8
3.3
0.09
7.7
168.7
6214.41401.6

(%)
-51.3
-50.7
-76.3
-52.5
-55.4
-48.8
0.3

7737.531.5

2030

2030/2000

6515.6
3.3
0.10
7.9
173.8
4506.11378.8

(%)
-49.4
-50.1
-74.9
-51.4
-54.0
-62.9
-1.3

7708.031.0

Agrocentric
2030

2030/2000

6425.5
3.3
0.10
8.3
182.5
8477.81405.3

(%)
-50.1
-50.3
-75.0
-48.8
-51.7
-30.2
0.6

7655.1

30.1

0.0

343.0

370.7

210.5

Bill. JPY/y

0.0

60.5

31.0

-21.9

1000

0.0

20.1

25.7

15.6

(direc t f inanc ial c os t )Macro-economic impact

Base
year

: Targeted for 75%(-0.75) reduction: Targeted for 50%(-0.50) reduction

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)10

Systematic diagram of LCD measures

LCD Action Breakdown Structure(LCD-ABS)
Shiga Study

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)11

Action to make people’s

Necessary timing ofactions backcasted
and their effects (1)Lifestyle changing
with “Mottainai”

Outputs of BCT, Shiga study

Action to make theCity as harmony-withgreen space

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)12

Necessary timing of actions
backcasted and their effects (2)Outputs of BCT, Shiga study

Action to make

Forestdevelopment
supporting Biwa lake
and lifestyle

Action to make theTransportation/
distribution
gently connecting
people and objects toenvironment

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)13

Action to makeIndustry

growing along withenvironment

Necessary timing of actions
backcasted and their effects(3)
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study

Action to make

Energyproduced by nature

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)

14Annual cost flows for implementation
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study

80

1,200

70

Billion JPY

800
600
400

5040302010

2015

2020

2025

02030

350

60

300

50
Billion JPY

200
150
100

City in harmony-withgreen space
交通・物流
Transportation
まちと建物

10250

Billion JPY

Energy produced bynature
産業活動
Industry growing alongwith environment
生活Lifestyle change
自然エネルギー

202002010

2015

2020

2025

2030

40
302010500Forest development

森林保全

60

1,0000Constant Budget casePublic sectors

1,400Billion JPY

Variable Budget case

Private sectors

2010

2015

152020

02030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
The 2025
19th AIMInternationalWorkshop(2013)

Up to now, we have applied the LCD research approach to8 nations and 12 regions in Asia regions
Malaysia

Putrajaya
Japan

Cyberjaya

Kyoto
Shiga

IskandarMalaysia

China

India

Guan Zhou

BhopalDalianAhmedabadThailand

Vietnam

Ratchaburi

Bangladesh

KhonKaen

Indonesia

S. Korea

Cambodia

Kyonggi-do
The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)16

Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios
Communication and feedbacks of LCD study to real world
2007/05

2013/10

2009/08,2012/11

2009/102010/10

2012/02

2009/11

2009/112010/11

2009/10,2012/02

2010/02,2012/09

2010/10,2012/10

2009/10

2011/102013/032013/05

2013/05

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)2013/07

2011/03

2011/09,2012/11

2013/1017

In order to make these actions happen, collaboration withcentral/regional governments and researchers in Asian region isnecessary. Through this activities, their capacity developments arestrongly expected

Proposal/ collaborative activity
on LCD scenario and roadmap
makingPolicy makers
Central/ regional
government
managers
NGOs

Request of more practical,
realistic roadmaps and also
tractable tools for real world

Each country’s
domestic/ local
research instituteResearchmembers

Application anddevelopment toactual LCD
processes

Development andmaintenance ofstudy tools/models

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)18

Some extracts of outputs
from the Asian LCD studies

Per capita emission: 0.6 to 13.4 tCO2, Percent reduction from BaU: 22% to 85%, and population
weighted average emission in the most stringent policy cases is 10% increase in 2030 from 2005 .
Base year information
Coutry/RegionRegion Scenario
code
code

Covered sectors

Year Population(1000)

Shiga prefecture JPN-SIG
Kyoto city
JPN-KYT
Dalian province CHN-DLN
Dalian province CHN-DLN
Guang Zhou city CHN-GZ
Khon Kaen
THA-KK
province
Khon Kaen
THA-KK
province
Gyeonggi
KOR-GYG
province
Putrajaya
MYS-PTJ
district
Iskandar
MYS-ISK
Malaysia
India
IND
Bhopal city
IND-BPL
Ahamedabad
IND-AMD
city
Ahamedabad
IND-AMD
city
Vietnam
VNM
Bangladesh
BGD
Indonesia
IDN
Indonesia
IDN
Thailand
THA
Malaysia
MYS
Malaysia
MYS
Malaysia
MYS
Malaysia
MYSEnergy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process
JPN-KYT2030 Energy, Waste, Forestry
CHN-DLN2020 Energy
CHN-DLN2050 Energy
CHN-GZ2030 Energy
JPN-SIG2030

GDP (GRP)
total

Target year information

GHG emission

per cap
(USD)

total

Year

percap(tCO2)

GHG emissionin BaUGHG emission with Actions( % change from base year)

Year ofstudy(% change Number offrom BaU) Actions

2000

1397

5884 Bill. JPY

40811

12877 ktCO2eq

9.2

2030

14369 (11.6)

6276 (-51.3)(-56.3)6 Actions

2007

2005
2007
2007
2005

1470
5721
5721
9600

6124 Bill. JPY
294 Bill. CNY
294 Bill. CNY
506 Bill. CNY

40365
6201
6201
6368

8015 ktCO2eq
46010 ktCO2eq
46010 ktCO2eq
98 MtCO2eq

5.5
8.0
8.0
10.2

2030
2020
2050
2030

8897 (11.0)
4586 (-42.8)
177760 (286.4) 123490 (168.4)
651460 (1315.9) 256250 (456.9)
336 (242.9)
165 (68.4)(-48.5)(-30.5)(-60.7)(-50.9)6 Actions
5 Actions

2009
2010
2010
2013

THA-KK2050

Energy, Waste, AFOLU

2005

1750

2933 Mill. USD

1676

2372 ktCO2eq

1.4

2050

7525 (217.2)

5173 (118.1)(-31.3)3 Strategies

2013

THA-KK2030

Energy, Waste, AFOLU

2005

1750

2933 Mill. USD

1676

2372 ktCO2eq

1.4

2030

5256 (121.6)

3585 (51.1)(-31.8)3 Strategies

2013

KOR-GYG2030 Energy, Land use

2005

10600

169 Tril. KRW

15348

76 MtCO2eq

7.1

2030

162 (114.7)

126 (67.2)(-22.1)-2012

MYS-PTJ2030

Energy, Waste, Forestry

2007

49

1062 Mill. MYR

5653

664 ktCO2eq

13.4

2030

4186 (530.4)

1780 (168.1)(-57.5)12 Actions

2012

MYS-ISK2025

Energy, Waste, Forestry

2005

1353

36 Bill. MYR

6944

11 MtCO2eq

8.4

2025

31 (174.6)

19 (65.8)(-39.6)12 Actions

2013

IND2050
IND-BPL2035

EnergyEnergy2005
2005

11030001844

33 Tril. INR
70 Bill. INR

680
868

1292 MtCO2eq
3 MtCO2eq

1.2
1.4

2050
2035

7241 (460.4)
12 (380.0)3114 (141.0)
7 (180.0)(-57.0)(-41.7)10 Actions
7 Actions

2009
2011

IND-AMD2035 Energy

2005

4700

305 Bill. INR

1483

10 MtCO2eq

2.2

2035

44 (332.4)

25 (140.4)(-44.4)8 Actions2010

IND-AMD2050 Energy

2005

4700

305 Bill. INR

1483

10 MtCO2eq

2.2

2050

86 (746.1)

25 (140.8)(-71.5)8 Actions2010

VNM2030
BGD2035
IDN2050CM1
IDN2050CM2
THA2030
MYS2020EXT
MYS2020APS
MYS2030EXT
MYS2030APS

2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005

83100
140000219000219000
60991
26128
26128
26128
26128

818 Tril. VND
4 Tril. BDT
1787 Tril. IDR
1787 Tril. IDR
8017 Mill. THB
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR

615
446
887
887
3391
5129
5129
5129
5129

151 MtCO2eq
88 MtCO2eq
299 MtCO2eq
299 MtCO2eq
185983 ktCO2eq
270710 ktCO2eq
270710 ktCO2eq
270710 ktCO2eq
270710 ktCO2eq

1.80.6
1.4
1.4
3.0
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.4

2030
2035
2050
2050
2030
2020
2020
2030
2030

601 (298.0)
379 (151.0)
310 (252.4)
179 (104.1)
4341 (1351.8)
2263 (656.9)4341 (1351.8)
670 (124.1)
563730 (203.1) 324170 (74.3)
533575 (97.1) 418709 (54.7)
533575 (97.1) 318567 (17.7)
741247 (173.8) 429007 (58.5)
741247 (173.8) 359837 (32.9)(-36.9)(-42.1)(-47.9)(-84.6)(-42.5)(-21.5)(-40.3)(-42.1)(-51.5)11 Actions
9Actions
-2012
2010
2010
20102010
2013
2013
2013
2013

2000

126926520 Trill. JPY

39690

1144 MtCO2eq

9.0

2050

ー(ー)

312 (-72.8)(ー)

12 Actions

2008

2000

126926520 Trill. JPY

39690

1144 MtCO2eq

9.0

2050

ー(ー)

312 (-72.8)(ー)

12 Actions

2008

Japan

JPN

JPN2050A

Japan

JPN

JPN2050B

Energy, AFOLU
Energy, AFOLU
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process
Energy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)19

Required GHG reduction ratios in 2050 compared with year
2005, to meet the global 50% reduction are:Required GHG reduction ratios (%) compared with year 2005

WorldAnnex-I

Non-Annex IAsia except
Japan

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Burden
share
sheme

pCAP

58

83

42

42

68-51

1583

85

67

61

12pGDP

58

46-58

57-65

58-63

59-61

41-53

67

18-43

49-57

57-60

54-65

60-74

pCUM

58

95

34

43

97-100

49

94

99

93

85

32

Minus is an increase of allowable emission compared with year 2005
Values of Indnesia and Malaysia are excluding emission/sink of LULC sectors
Ranges of pGDP are corresponding with ranges of GDP projections in references
pCAP: Equal per capita emission
pGDP: Equal per GDP emission
Matsuoka, et al., 2013, How to approach AsianpCUM: Converge to equal cumulative emission per capita, after 2075

Low-Carbon Societies?
Global Environmental Research, 17(1), 3-10

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)20

Allowable emissions in Developed Countries (DCs) andLess Developed Countries (LDCs)

Less developed countries’ (LDCs)
emission,(GtCO2/y)

The gap between BaU and target
is 59-44=15GtCO . If we take60 account pledges,2it remains 8 to12 GtCO250
If DCs reduces
30% from 1990,
LDCs target willbe 20% reduction
40from BaU

2020 (20,39)

2020

GHG emissions
reported (historicalvalues)(13,31)

If LDCs emit 10%
increase of 2005,30
allowable
emission of DCs
becomes 5 GtCO2,
20
i.e. 74% reductionof 1990

pCAP burdenshare casecoupled with
global 50%
reduction from1990

Allowable emission targets
proposed in “Emission Gap
report 2013”(UNEP) for likely
chance to meet 2℃ target

2030(5,30)

2050

2050 (3,16)(4,18)

2005 (17,27)

GHG emissions under BaU
scenario reported in“Emission Gap Report 2013”1990 (19,18)

10001020

30

405060If DCs reduceCountries’
80%
Developed(DCs) emission, (GtCO2/y)from 1990, LDCs
target will be thesame as 1990

Allowable GHG emissions forlikely chance to meet 2℃
target under someassumptions(20,39) means 20GtCO2/y fromdeveloped countries, and
39GtCO2/y from lessdeveloped countries

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)

21Final Remarks

ーLessons from the experience of applying the approachー
1. Importance of 1) showing explicitly and quantitatively the alternative scenarios, 2)
proposing several combinations of necessary actions/policies which keep theprescribed targets, 3) indicating and comparing illustratively their social,economical and financial effects of the proposed actions.

2. Importance of describing explicitly and quantitatively the role of constraints,such as;
1) Financial constraint, 2) Experts capacity constraint, and 3) Management
capacity constraint
And also4) Complimentarily and competitivity of these constraints with related policies
3. Strong leadership and ownership of Scenarios/Actions by the domestic regional
partners, who can modify, improve and maintain the Scenarios/Actions bythemselves, and facilitate the discussion among regional leaders, citizens andresearchers towards Low Carbon Developments.

The 19th AIM International Workshop(2013)22