Impact and Adaptation
Assessment of Climate Change
on Rice Production in Indonesia
23rd AIM WS@NIES
28 Nov. 2017

Yuji MASUTOMI
Ibaraki University

Collaboration withFunded byBackground• Mr. Abe, the prime minister of Japan,
promised to support adaptation planningand actions in developing countries in his
speech of the UN Climate Summit 2014
• “Japan’s Adaptation Initiative”• Indonesia was selected as the first country
implemented the initiative.

@UN Climate Summit 2014
Support adaptation
planning and actions• A Japanese research team was organized
and the project has started in Jun. 2015.
• three year project (until Mar. 2018)• will be extended...

Mr. AbeObjectives of our activity• Support regional adaptation planning• in collaboration with local researchers and stakeholders① create scientific evidence on regional future CC impacts② develop effective adaptation scenarios• Capacity building for sustainable planning and actions onadaptation• Develop adaptation planning guideline• to apply our approach to other countries and regions

Team members• The University of Tokyo:

 Coordination of the and communication with MOEJ Impacts assessment on health impact• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES): Future climate projections based on climate models• Ibaraki University:

 Impact assessments on agriculture• Nippon Koei:

 Overall coordination and guideline development
 Impact assessments on water resources• Local consultants (Profs. Pasaribu and Osawa):
 Support and coordination of field survey etc.

Approach：”Interactive”
1st step: Impact assessment (done)
2nd step: Discussion with stakeholders (done)
3rd step: Adaptation assessment (running)
4th step: Discussion with stakeholders

Impact assessment
Discussion withstakeholders
Adaptation assessment
Discussion withstakeholders

5th step: Making adaptation scenarios
Adaptation scenariosImpact assessment

1st step:
Impact assessment

Discussion withstakeholders
Adaptation assessment
Discussion withstakeholders

Adaptation scenarios

Method①InputFuture climate projections②Impact model

Crop Growth Simulation Model：MATCRO③Output

Change in rice yield [%]Masutomi et al. (2016a,b)Base years: 1981-2005

Assessment years: 2018-2042

Or
Decrease

IncreaseSelection of future climate projections
Indonesia (whole)N°

Climate Model

Western Indonesia
N°

Climate Model

Central Indonesia
N°

Climate Model

Eastern Indonesia
N°

Climate Model

1

ACCESS1-0

1

ACCESS1-0

1ACCESS1-0

1BNU-ESM

2BNU-ESM

2ACCESS1-3

2BNU-ESM

2CanESM2

3CNRM-CM53BNU-ESM

3CanESM23CNRM-CM54FGOALS-g2

4CNRM-CM54CNRM-CM54GFDL-CM35GFDL-CM35FGOALS-g2

5FGOALS-g2

5GFDL-ESM2M

6GFDL-ESM2M

6HadGEM2-AO

6GFDL-CM36HadGEM2-AO

7IPSL-CM5A-LR

7IPSL-CM5A-LR

7GFDL-ESM2M

7inmcm4

8 IPSL-CM5A-MR

8 IPSL-CM5A-MR

8IPSL-CM5A-LR

8IPSL-CM5A-LR

9IPSL-CM5B-LR

9IPSL-CM5B-LR

10MIROC51011NorESM1-M

119 IPSL-CM5A-MR

9 IPSL-CM5A-MR

MIROC510IPSL-CM5B-LR

10IPSL-CM5B-LR

MIROC-ESM

11MIROC511MIROC512 MIROC-ESM-CHEM

12MRI-CGCM312NorESM1-M

13MRI-CGCM313MRI-ESM114MRI-ESM114

NorESM1-M

15NorESM1-M• We selected 6 climate
models with highperformance overIndonesia
1. CNRM-CM5
2. IPSL-CM5A-LR
3. IPSL-CM5A-MR
4. IPSL-CM5B-LR
5. MIROC5
6. NorESM1-M• 21 future climateprojections• Each model has 2-4
RCP scenarios

②Impact model
MATCRO

Crop growth simulation model based on crop physiology(Masutomi et al. 2016a,b)

Local rice cultivars
Cultivars

Planted area(ha)

%

type1

Ciherang

5,034,657

37.1

Indica2

Mekongga

1,135,893

8.4

Indica3

Situ Bagendit

1,013,659

7.5

Indica4

IR 64964,241

7.1

IndicaSource IAARD

We focused on “Ciherang” in this study

CiherangModel Parameterization for “Ciherang”, using field
experimental data
Leaf

Leaf thickness

PanicleDead leaf

Comparison of yields between
observations and simulations by provinces

MATCRO can highly reproduce observed rice yields.

③Output

Change in Rice Yields [%]Assessment years: 2018-2042
OrDecrease

IncreaseImpact assessment of global warming on rice yield
Average change in rice yield in 2018-2042
compared to 1981-2005

Global warming will havenegative impact over Indonesia[%]

IPSL-CM5B-LR
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5

CNRM-CM5

NorESM1-M

MIROC5

IPSL-CM5A-LR IPSL-CM5A-MR

2nd step;
Discussion withstakeholders

Impact assessment
Discussion withstakeholders
Adaptation assessment
Discussion withstakeholders

Adaptation scenarios

The objective of the discussion• To prioritize adaptation options, based on the impact assessment• The effect of the prioritized adaptation options are assessed in Step3.

• We had two workshops with stakeholders.
• Mar. 7, 2017@Medan, North Sumatra• Mar. 9, 2017@Surabaya, East Java• about 30 participants• BAPPEDA, BMKG, university researchers, etc.

Menu for adaptation options on agriculture
No

MenuActor

CostEffect

LowLow√

Gov.

Scientist

FarmerCompany

1

Change in variety (existing variety)2

Change in agricultural management(e.g., planting date, fertilizer, etc. )

Low

Int.

√

3

Change in planting crop

Low

Int.

√

4

Real time monitoring system

Int.

Int.

√√

(√)

5

Early warming system

Int.

Int.

√

√

(√)

6

Seasonal forecasting system

Int.

Int.

√

√

(√)

7

Climate and agricultural insurance

int.

Int.

(√)

8

Change in variety (new variety)

Int.

High

√

9

Change the postharvest system

Int.

High

√

10 Development of irrigation system

HighHigh√√

HighHigh√√

11 Land use change

Category：

Agricultural
technology

Easy

Difficult
ICT and smart
agriculture

Agricultural
finance

√√√

√√√

√

Infrastructure

Discussion....Summary of the discussion with stakeholders (Step2)
NoMenuActor

PRIORITY

CostEffect

Low

Low

√Gov.

ScientistFarmer

Company

Change in variety (existing variety)2

Change in agricultural management(e.g., planting date, fertilizer, etc. )

Low

Int.

√3

Change in planting crop

Low

Int.

√

4

Real time monitoring system

Int.

Int.

√√

(√)

5

Early warming system

Int.

Int.

√√

(√)

6

Seasonal forecasting system

Int.

Int.

√√(√)

7

Climate and agricultural insurance

int.

Int.

(√)

8

Change in variety (new variety)

Int.

High√

9

Change the postharvest system

Int.

High√10 Development of irrigation system

HighHigh√√

HighHigh√√

11 Land use change

Category：

Difficult
Agricultural
technology

ICT and smart
agriculture

Agricultural
finance√EJ.

51EasyNS.

4

√

√√√

√

√

Infrastructure

1

542

2

3
13

Impact assessment

Step3:
Adaptation assessment

Discussion withstakeholders
Adaptation assessment
Discussion withstakeholders

Adaptation scenarios

Validation with field experimental data
Plot ：Measured value
Line : Estimated value
LeafStemPanicle

MATCRO can accurately simulate the effect of irrigation.

The effect of irrigation in the future• The effect of irrigation is positive over Indonesia.
• The effect of irrigation is largely different across regions.
This information is useful for developing effectiveadaptation plans.

Summary
1. The Japanese research team is trying to support regional adaptation
planning in Indonesia.
2. The results show global warming will have large impact on riceproduction over Indonesia.
• Average change in rice yield will be -7.4%

3. The installation of irrigation system will positive effect over Indonesia,
but the effect is largely different across regions.
4. We will develop effective adaptation plans through discussions withIndonesian stakeholders

Thank you for you attention

Enjoy Tsukuba!
Nov. 26, 2017