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Recent Vegetation Fire Incidence in Russia
Hiroshi HAYASAKA
Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido University
N 13, W 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8628, Japane-mail: hhaya@eng.hokudai.ac.jp

Abstract
MODIS hotspot data from NASA have now become a standard means of evaluating vegetation fires
worldwide. Remote sensing is the most effective tool for large countries like Russia because it is hard to
obtain exact, detailed forest fire data. Accumulated MODIS hotspot data of the nine years from 2002 to 2010
may allow us to assess recent changes in the vegetation fire incidence in Russia. This kind of analysis using
various satellites is useful in estimating fire intensity and severity, burnt area, fire return interval and emissionof greenhouse gases such as CO2. This paper discusses recent changes in the incidence of vegetation fires
across the entire area of Russia based on analysis results of MODIS hotspot data. Firstly, Russia and its
vicinity (covered area: 40°-75°N, 30°-180°E) were divided into 135 regions with equal intervals of 5° latitude
and 10° longitude. Introducing an annual mean hotspot density measure (AMHD, number of hotspots/km2/yr),enabled Russian regional and seasonal fires to be analyzed and compared. In addition to this analysis, adetailed analysis was carried out for the Yakutsk region of Sakha using long-term weather data from 1830 tothe present, recent daily weather data, hotspot data in 2002 and other data. The background to the intense fire
activity near Sakha was determined by considering drought conditions and daily changes of air temperatures.
Key words: Boreal forest, burnt area, hotspot, MODIS, vegetation fire

1. Introduction
The Russian Federation is the largest country in theworld with a total area of 17,075,400 km2, occupying
nearly a third (31%) of Eurasia, the total area of which isabout 54,492,000 km2. It is located in the northeasternpart of the Eurasian continent. This area is dominated byboreal forest, or taiga, which has a total area of about
12,000,000 km2, comprising about a third of the world’s
forest cover. About 70 percent of the world’s boreal
forest is in Eurasia, mostly in Russia. Russia contains
about 6,200,000 km2 of boreal forest (Tchebakova et al.,1994).
At least two large fires occurred in Russia in the first
decade of the new century. In 2002, many large-scale
forest fires occurred near Yakutsk, the capital of the
Sakha Republic in Siberia, burning a total area estimatedat over 23,000 km2 – the largest reported in Sakha since1955 and about ten times greater than mean burnt area ofprotected forests, or about 2,400 km2. In 2003, forest
fires near Lake Baikal in Siberia were especially severe,and the total burnt area in Russia (Siberia) that year was
estimated in excess of 234,000km2.
Studies on forest fires in vast areas of Russian taiga
are continuing intensively from various points of view.
Remote sensing is one of the most effective tools for
Global Environmental Research
15/2011: 5-13
printed in Japanlarge countries like Russia because it is very hard to
obtain exact and detailed forest fire data. MODIS hotspot
data from NASA has become a standard method forevaluating vegetation fires worldwide. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) on board
the NASA Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua
satellites provides global fire observation of unprecedented quality (Csiszar et al., 2005). According to
Mouillot and Field (2005), the burned area has increased
since the 1980s, probably a reflection of decreased funding for fire fighters. Due to such policies, recent fire
activity in the southern part of Far East Russia, near theborder with China, and in Mongolia, may have increased.
In addition, Kasischke (2000) reported that during summer, the risk of fire was high in this region due to relatively low rainfall (averaging < 300mm). Campbell and
Flannigan (2000) reported that recent trends toward
warmer, drier summers associated with global climatechange are expected to increase the number and size of
boreal forest fires. Recent regional fire events appear to
support these predictions. Flannigan et al. (2009) reported that to date, research suggests a general increase inarea burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of
spatial variability, with some areas of no change or evendecreases in area burned and occurrence. Tchebakova
et al. (2009) concluded that in a warming climate, fuel©2011 AIRIES6

H. HAYASAKA

load accumulates due to replacement of forest by steppe
together with frequent fire weather promoting high risksof large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia,
where wildfires would create habitats for grasslands
because the drier climate would no longer be suitable forforests. Conard and Davidenko (1998) reported that thelarge percentage of human-caused fires in Russia’s
boreal ecosystems suggests the critical importance of fire
management and fire suppression for maintaining
desirable fire regimes and preventing decreases infire-return interval and loss of carbon storage in theseecosystems.
In this paper, recent changes in the incidence ofvegetation fires across the entire area of Russia are discussed using analytical results of MODIS hotspot data
(more than 3 million) from 2002 to 2010. In addition tothis analysis, a detailed analysis is carried out for the
Yakutsk region of Sakha using long-term weather dataand other data. The background to the intense fire activity
near Sakha is discussed by illuminating drought conditions and daily changes in air temperatures (Hayasaka,
2003, 2004).

2. Data & Methods
2.1 Satellite data
Satellite image and hotspot data were obtained courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response Project at
NASA/GSFC. Terra and Aqua acquired more than three
million hotspot data for the study area (Russia andvicinity: 40°-75° north latitude (N), 30°-180° east longitude (E)) for the period 2002-2010. (Aqua was notlaunched until July 2002, therefore there are usually
fewer fires reported for 2002.)
To discuss recent activity of vegetation fires in Russia,
this paper introduces annual mean hotspot density (number of hotspots/(km2 yr)). As the area of Russia and vicinity is enormous, the above mentioned study area
(30°-75°N, 30°-180°E) was equally subdivided by fivedegrees in latitude and ten degrees in longitude. This
made a total of 135(=7×15) regions. However, the distance of any certain degree in longitude varies according
to its latitude value, so seven different areas of eachregion have to be calculated considering latitude values.
In this paper, the approximate area of each region was
calculated by using the distances of the latitude andlongitude intersecting at the center of each region.
2.2 Climate and forest fire data
Weather data measured at Yakutsk, Sakha obtained
from Russian scientists (personal communication) wereused to discuss the effect of weather conditions on fire
activity. Monthly mean temperature data from May of1829 to 2009 and daily mean temperature from January 1of 1930 to 2007 were analyzed.
Monthly precipitation data from January of 1891 to2009 were analyzed. Forest fire history data (onlynumber of fires and burnt area of each year) provided by
the Sakha Ministry of Forestry and private communi-

cation with Russian scientists (personal communication)
were used to determine fire trends from 1955 to 2009.

3. Study Areas
In this study, two study areas were used. The first one
was for the entire region of Russia (30° to 75 °N, 30° to
180°E) to grasp vegetation fire tendencies in Russia andnearby countries. The second one was for the Sakha
region (59° to 65°N, 117° and 134°E) to discuss local
forest fire activity in Siberian boreal forests.
3.1 Overview of Russia
Figure 1 provides a map of Russia and its vicinity.
There are several countries in this map. The majorcountries are Russia, Mongolia, China, Kazakhstan
and Ukraine. Russia roughly covers 41° - 82°N, and 19° 169°E. Moscow, the capital of Russia, is located near theeast side of Europe. Most of the area of Russia is in theregion called Siberia. The Yenisey River, one of the
major rivers of Russia, runs from south to north and isfound in the center of map in Fig. 1. This river divides
Siberia into West and East Siberia. The west side of West
Siberia covers the Ural Range. The east side of East
Siberia ends at the border with Sakha (about 106°-112°E).
The region to the east of this border is called the Russian
Far East.
Most of Siberia has a subarctic climate with severe
winters, very cold but relatively low precipitation.
Mountains in the south of Russia block the flow of warm
air masses from the Indian Ocean while cold air masses
from the Arctic sea enter through the plains on the west
and north. Either June or August is the wettest month formost of Siberia, but monthly precipitation is less than
100 mm.
3.2 Boreal forest (taiga) in Russia
Figure 2 provides a map of forest distribution in
Russia. Other major eco-regions in Russia are Arctic
tundra in the northernmost area and grassland (steppe)and semi-desert in the southern area.
In Russia, about 50% of the land area (8,500,000 km2)
is covered by forest. Around 77% of the forest consists ofconifer trees (larch 36%, pine 19%, spruce 15%, Siberianpine 7% (area based %)). Russia has about half the conifer trees in the world and a third of the taiga.
West Siberia has the so-called dark taiga composed
mainly of spruce and cedar (SC in Fig. 2). On thecontrary, forests in East Siberia and the Far East are not
so dark due to an abundance of larch (L in Fig. 2). Pine
forests spread from West to East in Russia (P in Fig. 2).
Thin forests (SL in Fig. 2) composed of spruce, larch andpine, exist just south of the tundra area (white area in thenorthern part of the map in Fig. 2).
3.3 Overview of Sakha
Sakha, a Russian Federation republic located in
Far-Eastern Siberia, lies between 56° to 73° north latitude (a distance of about 1,900 km) and 106° to 160° eastRecent Vegetation Fire Incidence in Russia

7Fig. 1 Map of Russia and its vicinity.

Fig. 2 Map of forest distribution.

longitude (a distance of about 2,700 km at around62.5°N). Sakha’s boreal forest, or taiga, lies mainly to thesouth of the Arctic Circle. Yakutsk, the capital of Sakha,
is located at 62.1°N and 129.8°E. Sakha’s forest covers
about 1,430,000 km2 and consists mainly of larch, pineand spruce, with a ground cover of Vaccinium vitis-idaea,
moss and lichens. Crown fires are not so frequent, but
fires caused by human activity are responsible for the
majority of fires.

4. Results and Discussion
4.1 Fire trends – yearly and monthly tendencies
from 2002 to 2010
The total number of hotspots from 2002 to 2010 for
the study area of all of Russia (30° to 75°N, 30° to 180°E)
was about three million (3,001,007). Figure 3 gives
annual and monthly trends. The bar graph of each year
consists of six bar graphs, from April to August. They
were compiled from the start of April to the end of
August in turn.

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H. HAYASAKA

Number of Hostspots

Figure 3 shows annual vegetation fire trends. Fromsimple statistics on hotspot data, the annual average number of hotspots(μ) was 333,445, with a standard deviation(σ) of 109,954. From Fig. 3, the highest vegetation
fire year was 2003(+1.93σ). Here, +1.93 is the factor of
the standard normal distribution. 2002(0.92σ) and2008(0.74σ) followed. 2006 and 2009 were average fire
years. Other years, 2004, 2005 and 2010, were relatively
low fire years. The lowest fire year was 2007(1.04σ).
Figure 3 also shows monthly fire tendencies. As
the bar graphs for each year have six months of bar
graphs, for April to September, the simple monthly
average number of hotspots can be calculated as
55,574(=μ/6= 333,445/6). The average bar graph height
can be found in the bottom (April) bar graph for 2010. In
Fig. 3, largest number for each month were found in
April in 2008, May in 2003, June in 2003, July in 2003,
August in 2002, and September in 2002. As each of thesehighest bar graphs of each month has the month name onit, you can find them easily in Fig. 3. The numbers of
hotspots indicated for each were 136,792; 186,286;

Fig. 3 Vegetation fire tendency in the entire Russian region from2002 to 2010.

Fig. 4 Vegetation fire monthly tendency in the entire Russian
region from 2002 to 2010.

87,829; 88,151; 148,249; and 87,887, respectively.
Among them, the largest number of hotspots occurred in
May 2003, most of which were due to severe fires in themountainous forest area near Chita. The second largest
number of hotspots occurred in August 2002 and wascaused mainly by severe forest fires near Yakutsk in
Sakha.
To grasp monthly fire trends in the study area, theaverage number of hotspots was calculated. They were
60,631 for April, 78,380 for May, 32,781 for June,
65,673 for July, 60,777 for August and 35,203 for
September. These are shown in Fig. 4. From Fig. 4, we
may say there were two fire seasons in this study area.
Namely “spring fires” occurring in April and May and“summer fires” occurring in July and August.
4.2 Fire trends – Hotspot spatial and temporal
distribution
4.2.1 Hotspot Density Distribution in All of Russia
Figure 5 shows the annual values of the mean hotspot
density (AMHD) for 112 grids to identify severe fireareas. The base map for Fig. 5 was made by plotting all
hotspot data in 2003 on a Google map (Mercator projection). The total number of hotspots in 2003 was 545,676,
shown as red dots in Fig. 5. The sizes of the hotspots,
however, were exaggerated to show the existence of fires
in high latitude areas and remote areas. This hotspot
distribution in 2003 was partially related to AMHD andclearly shows a Russian fire belt from west to east locatedaround 50°-55° north latitude.
AMHD was simply calculated by the following
equation.
AMHD = (total number of hotspots) / (9(years)
× (approximate grid area)),
where 9 was the number of years from 2002 to 2010 andthe approximate grid area was simply calculated using
the distances at the grid center, namely the 10° length of
longitude and 5° length of latitude. Thus, the unit of
AMHD is number/(km2yr), allowing fire activities ofeach grid to be compared directly. In Fig. 5, AMHD foreach grid is shown by a black circle with white color
scale circles of three different radii. The scales of thesmallest, middle and largest circles represent 20, 40 and
60×10–3/(km2yr), respectively.
From Fig. 5, the highest AMHD (68.2×10–3/(km2yr))
was found in the Irkutsk area. This very high density was
simply the result of severe fires in Chita in 2003. The
second highest AMHD (47.4×10–3/(km2yr)) occurred
south of Moscow. As this region is Russia’s main cropland, most fires there may be related to agriculturalactivities such as harvesting, cultivation and so on. The
third highest AMHD (35.6×10–3/(km2yr)) was in thecentral-northern part of Kazakhstan. Fires in this region
also may be related to agricultural activities.
One grid of Sakha, on west side of Yakutsk, had thefourth largest AMHD (35.4×10–3/(km2yr)). Vegetation
fires near Yakutsk will be discussed in detail below.

Recent Vegetation Fire Incidence in Russia

4.2.2 Seasonal fire distribution
From monthly hotspot distribution maps, a unique fireoccurrence tendency was found. To elucidate this seasonal tendency, the July hotspot distribution in the study
area was plotted in Fig. 6. All July hotspot data from2002 to 2010 were plotted with red dots on the same
Google map as in Fig. 5. The size of the black circle ineach grid shows the ratio of the number of hotspots foundin July to the total number of hotspots from April to
September. The ratio is shown as a percentage. The ratioof each black circle can be read with the help of four scale
circles of 25, 50, 75 and 100%. Their sizes are shown on
the right at the bottom of Fig. 6.
Figure 6 shows that higher latitude grids tended tohave a higher percentage. In particular, the five grids
above 70° north latitude tended to have a high ratio. The

9ratios of five grids from west to east at the top of Fig. 6
are 100, 99.9, 100, 92.5, and 97.8%, respectively. Thus,
the ratios in other northern grids are relatively high, asshown in Fig. 7. The total number of grids withpercentages higher than 50% was 31. Five were in grids
at 75°N, twelve were in grids at 67.5°N, nine were in
grids at 62.5°N, four were in grids at 57.5°N and one wasin a grid at 52.5°N.
This July vegetation fire trend was entirely unique but
can be explained by air temperature and precipitation
trends. For most regions in this study area, July is thewarmest and wettest month. Therefore, vegetation fires
could occur under warmer air temperature and lower
precipitation conditions. This effect of weather factors onvegetation fires will be discussed later in detail.

Fig. 5 Map of annual hotspot density in Russia and its neighboring countries.

Fig. 6 Map of July hotspot distribution and occurrence ratios (in percentages).

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H. HAYASAKA

Annual Precipitation mm

Annual Mean Temperature °C

Fig. 7 Map of Yakutsk area of Sakha and 2002 hotspot distribution.

Year

Fig. 8 Annual mean air temperature and precipitation trends.

5. Vegetation Fires in Sakha
The study area for Sakha was between 59° and 65°N
latitude and 117° and 134°E longitude. Figure 7 shows a
map of the Yakutsk vicinity based on Google maps. The
hotspot distribution in 2002 was plotted upon this map
using red squares.
5.1 Temperature and precipitation trends
Figure 8 shows trends in annual mean air temperaturefrom 1830 to 2009 and precipitation from 1891 to 2009.
According to Fig. 8, the annual mean air temperaturestarted to increase from about –11°C in 1900. The recent
mean air temperature is around –8°C. We may say atemperature rise of about 3°C occurred, but this rise wasmainly caused by a wintertime temperature rise. A
considerable temperature rise from April to July was also
found in Sakha due to apparent climate change from the
1990s.

On the other hand, annual precipitation showed anincreasing trend from around 1900. This increase is also
mainly due to wintertime precipitation, but a drastic decrease in precipitation was also found in August in Sakha,
dropping to only 50% of that before the 1990s.
Thus, weather conditios of higher temperatures andlower precipitation may be related to recent fire activities
in Sakha.
5.2 Fire history
Forest fire history data (number of fires and burnt area
each year) provided by the Sakha Ministry of Forestry
and private communication with Russian scientists wereused to determine fire trends from 1955 to 2009 (Fig. 9).
The bar graph in Fig. 9 indicates the burnt area, but only
for the so-called protected forest area in Sakha. The areaof protected forest accounts for 42% of the total forest
area in Sakha. The burnt area varied from 3.35 km2 in
1973 at the smallest, to 8,834 km2 in 1955. The averageannual burnt area during the 55 years from 1955 was
1,810 km2. Figure 9 does not show the number of fires,but this number varied from 28 in 1973 to 1,417 in 1955.
The average number of fires was 521. Unfortunately,
there are no precise data related to lightning available in
Sakha, but it is believed that forest fires in Sakha aremainly caused by human activities. In the future, thecontribution of lightning can be clarified if precise
lightning observation can be carried out in Sakha.
In 2002, fires started in May under conditions ofstrong southerly maximum wind velocities of 8 m/s andhigh air temperatures near 30°C, causing many fires near
the Lena River. After these fires, there occurred nomarked rainfall exceeding 5 mm/day until the beginningof June. Major fires started just after a cyclone with rain
and lightning passed near Yakutsk at the beginning ofJune. Major fires also occurred in mid-August andRecent Vegetation Fire Incidence in Russia

11

Fig. 9 Protected forest fire history of Sakha from 1955.
Table 1 Trends in forest fires and weather in Yakutsk.

(*: data from Jan. 1995 to Jul. 2002)

September. Many of them were re-activated fires or
so-called holdover fires (D. Latham & E. Williams,
2001), as confirmed by satellite images from NASA
MODIS. The total area of protected forest burned in 2002
was the second largest since 1955 (Fig. 9), but the estimated total burnt area according to satellite imagery was
about 23,300 km2, as shown with the highest bar in Fig. 9.
The largest burnt area in 2002, shown in Fig. 9, implies
the burnt area in Sakha would be larger if the burnt areaof unprotected forests and fields were also included.
5.3 Recent fire tendencies
Table 1 summarizes Sakha forest fire and weather
trends. The average number of fires and area burned eachyear for three different periods – 1955-2005, 1955-1989,
and 1990-2005 – are summarized to show how fire
activity increased in Sakha between 1990 and 2005. The
average number of fires and burnt area from 1990 to 2005
exceeded that for the other two periods. The averageburnt area from 1990 to 2005 was 1.85 times greater thanthat between 1955 and 1989.

To determine the cause of this increase in fire activity
in Sakha, we studied trends in precipitation and averagetemperature, as summarized in Table 1. Weather datafrom May 1829 to July 2002 are from the Sakha Weather
Station (62.1°N, 129.8°E, 103 m). The decrease in precipitation during the fire season from April throughSeptember from 1990 to 2002 ranged between 2.7 and16.9 mm compared to that between 1955 and 1989.
Precipitation markedly decreased by 16.9 mm in August,
but the increase in temperatures during the fire season
ranged from 0.4°C to 1.6°C compared with those from1955 to 1989. No marked temperature rises such as thatin Alaska were found, but warmer spring trends from
April through June were clear.
In addition to this spring weather change, trends inlower precipitation and higher temperatures were also
found in August, when precipitation was –16.9mm lower
than normal and temperatures were 0.4°C warmer thannormal. This drier trend in August may provide an
opportunity for holdover fires to be to re-activated.

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H. HAYASAKA

Temperature °C

Fig. 10 Hotspots, rainfall and lightning in 2002.

Fig. 11 Daily mean air temperature in 2002.

5.4 2002 Fires
In 2002, fires (hotspots) in Sakha started from the
middle of May, as shown with bar graphs in Fig. 10. In
this figure, precipitation and lightning are indicated bybar graphs and arrows. The y axis for precipitation isinverted. According to Fig. 10, the fires started in the
middle of May, and severe fires occurred in the middle ofJuly and August. Precipitation is a natural extinguisher
for most vegetation fires, but the rainfall in May and June
was too weak. There was no rainfall of more than 5 mm.
Rainfall of less than 5 mm is usually too weak to put out
fires. In June, only three rainfalls of more than 5 mm
occurred. From this trend, we may say severe fires inAugust 2002 occurred due to drought conditions fromMay.
Figure 11 shows daily mean air temperatures in 2002 .
In this figure, the daily mean air temperature (period:
1930-2007) is shown along with the standard deviation.
The air temperatures in 2002 varied, with mostly higher

than normal values from the middle of May to the middleof September. Most fire occurrences in Fig. 10 coincidedwith high air temperatures (+1σ).

6. Conclusions
Recent vegetation fire tendencies of almost each of
the 120 regions in Russia were analyzed using MODIS
hotspot data from 2002 to 2010. Comparisons among
each region were carried out by introducing AMHD
(annual mean hotspot density; number of hotspots/(km2yr)). The major conclusions for Russian regionaland seasonal fires are:
1. The distribution of the AMHDs clearly shows a
Russian fire belt located around 50°-55° northlatitude.
2. The highest AMHD (68.2×10–3/(km2yr)) was in the
Irkutsk region (50°-55°N, 110°-120°E) exclusively
arising from severe fires in the Chita area in 2003.

Recent Vegetation Fire Incidence in Russia

3. The second highest AMHD (47.4×10–3/(km2yr)) was
located in a region southeast of Moscow (50°-55°N,
40°-50°E) and may be related to agriculturalactivities.
4. The third and fourth highest AMHDs (41.3 and40.7×10–3/(km2yr)) were in two regions of Ukraine(45°-50N° and 50°-55°N, 30°-40°E), also related toagricultural activities.
5. The three regions: Kazakhstan (50°-55°N, 60°-70°E),
Sakha (65°-65°N, 120°-130°E) and the Amur River(50°-55°N, 120°-130°E) were next in fire frequency
after the above four highest regions. Their AMHD
values were 35.6, 35.4 and 35.2, respectively.
6. We may say July is a fire month for most Siberian regions at high latitudes (> 55°N), because more than
50% of all hotspots there occurred in July. This
percentage became higher for further northernlatitudes. A detailed analysis for the Yakutsk region in
Sakha using long-term weather data since 1830,
recent daily weather data, hotspot data in 2002 andother data, clearly shows large fire activities in the
boreal forest or taiga. The major conclusions for the
Yakutsk fires are:7. The Sakha region (65°-65°N, 120°-130°E) had thesixth highest AMHD of 35.4×10–3/(km2yr) due tosevere fires in 2002.
8. The severe Sakha fires of 2002 can be explained by
the precipitation patterns and mean air temperaturechanges from May to September.
9. Severe fires in August 2002 occurred under drought
conditions (only three rainfalls of more than 5 mm)from May.
10. The air temperatures in 2002 varied, with mostly
higher than normal values from the middle of May tothe middle of September. Many hotspots or fires wererecorded especially when air temperatures were
excessively high (+1σ).

13

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4.

Hiroshi HAYASAKA

Acknowledgments
The fire history and weather data used in this paper
were obtained from Dr. Alexander Fedorov of thePermafrost Institute, Russian Academy of Science and
Dr. Alexander Isaev, Institute for Biological Problems of
Cryolithozone, Russian Academy of Science. Satellite
image and hotspot data were courtesy of the MODIS
Rapid Response Project. The author would like toexpress his appreciation for their assistance andcooperation.

Hiroshi HAYASAKA is an Associate Professor
at the Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido
University. He received his M.S. in 1974 andDr.Eng. in 1986 from the Graduate School ofEngineering, Hokkaido University. Recently, he
has been focusing on large-scale wildland fires invarious places such as in Russia, Alaska and Indonesia. His main interest is
the occurrence processes of large-scale wildland fires and their relationshipto weather conditions such as lightning, droughts, and high air temperatures.

(Received 4 March 2011, Accepted 8 July 2011)