Cabinet Office

Press Release
March 1, 2013
Economic and Social Research Institute

FY2012 Annual Survey of Corporate Behavior(Summary)■ The break-even yen-dollar rate for exporting companies on an all industries basis was 83.9yen/dollar.
This was a 1.9 yen lower than the previous year’s result (82.0 yen/dollar) and the first depreciationof the yen in six years.
*Figures are average of actual values (in relation to US dollar)[Fig. 1] Trend of the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-evenyen-dollar rate (all industries basis)(yen/dollar)

160
Forecast yen‐dollar rate after 1 year
Break‐even yen‐dollar rate
Yen‐dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey

140

120

100
88.4
83.9
80

83.6

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

60
Survey yea r (FY)

Note: “Forecast yen-dollar rate” refers to the class value average, and “break-even yen-dollar rate” refers to the average of actual values.
“Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports.

Coverage

All companies listed on the First Section and Second Section of the Tokyo, Osaka, andNagoya Stock Exchanges (2,374 companies as of November 1, 2012)

Responding companies

815 (425 in manufacturing industries, 390 in non-manufacturing industries)

Response rate

34.3%

Survey items

Forecast of Japan’s economic growth rate, forecast of growth rate of industry demand,
forecast yen-dollar rate, break-even yen-dollar rate, growth rate of capital investment,change in the number of employees, overseas production ratio, etc.

Period of the survey

January 2013

Inquiries:
Department of Business Statistics, Economic and Social Research Institutehttp://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/stat/ank/ank-e.html

iCabinet Office

Press Release■ The break-even yen-dollar rate by sector compared to the average (break-even yen-dollar rate on an
all industries basis) was:
-A weaker yen level for “Textiles & Apparels” (91.9 yen/dollar), and “Iron & Steel” (90.2 yen/dollar), etc.
-A stronger yen level for “Pharmaceutical” (79.0 yen/dollar) and “Wholesale Trade” (81.7 yen/dollar), etc.
[Fig. 2] Break-even yen-dollar rate by sector(yen/dollar)

110
Average : 83.9 yen/dollar(Break‐even yen‐dollar rate of all industries)

100
90
80

Stronger yen than average

Textiles & Apparels

Iron & Steel

Pulp & Paper

Metal Products

Glass & Ceramics Products

Other Products

Foods

MachineryTransportation Equipment

Electric Appliances

Nonferrous Metals

Precision Instruments

Chemicals

Wholesale Trade

60

Pharmaceutical70

Weaker yen than average

Note 1: “Break-even yen-dollar rate” represents the value of only companies that are conducting exports (average of actual values).
Note 2: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies.

■ Sectors with a break-even yen-dollar rate of a stronger yen level than average have higher realindustry demand growth rate forecasts and overseas production ratios than sectors with a weaker
yen level.

[Fig. 3] Real growth rate forecast of industry demand and overseas production ratio by break-even yen-dollar rate level

Forecast of real growth rate of industry demand(next fiscal year)

1.1
0.7

Forecast of real growth rate of industry demand(next 3 years)

1.2
0.6

Sectors with a lower than average break-even yen-rate (stronger yen)
Sectors with a higher than average break-even yen-rate (weaker yen)

20.5

Overseas production ratio (FY2011 actual figure)

11.2
20.8

Overseas production ratio (FY2012 estimate)

12.0
25.2

Overseas production ratio (FY2017 forecast)

14.4

0Note 1:

Note 2:
Note 3:510

15202530 (%)

Sectors were divided into two groups according to whether the break-even yen-dollar rate was lower (stronger yen) or higher (weakeryen) than the average. The real growth rate forecasts of industry demand of both groups, etc. were re-calculated (averages of actualvalues) and then compared.
“Next fiscal year” refers to FY2013 and “next 3 years” refers to the average of FY2013-FY2015.
Overseas production ratio = Volume of overseas production / (Volume of domestic production + Volume of overseas production)
Simple average of responding companies including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.

ii

Cabinet Office

Press Release■ The forecast of the real economic growth rate in Japan for the “next fiscal year” (FY2013) on an allindustries basis was 1.2%, a rise for the fourth consecutive year.
■ The forecast of the real growth rate of industry demand for the “next fiscal year” on an allindustries basis was 1.0%, a rise for the third consecutive year.
■ Compared to the Japan’s real economic growth rate forecast, the real growth rate forecasts ofindustry demand were lower for the “next fiscal year,” “next 3 years” and “next 5 years.”*Figures are average of actual values[Fig. 4] Trend of Japan’s real economic growth rate forecasts (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal yearForecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years

4.0

Next fi s cal year
Next 5 yea rs

3.0

1.2
1.2

2.0
1.00.0

Next 3 years

1.1

2011

‐2.0

2008

‐1.0

2012

2010

2009

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0

Survey year (FY)

[Fig. 5] Trend of real growth rate forecasts of industry demand (all industries basis)(%)

5.0
Forecast for the next fiscal year
Forecast for the next 3 years
Forecast for the next 5 years

4.0
3.0
2.0

1.0
1.0
1.0

1.00.0‐1.0
‐2.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

‐3.0

Survey yea r (FY)

Note: With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2012 survey refers to theforecast for FY2013; the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2015; and the “forecast for the next 5 years”
refers to the forecast for FY2013 to FY2017 (fiscal year average).

iii

Cabinet OfficePress Release■ The forecasts of the real growth rate of industry demand (next fiscal year) declined from theprevious year’s results in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
■ In particular, the drop in manufacturing industries was large, with significant declines in sectors
such as “Transportation Equipment”, “Nonferrous Metals” and “Electric Appliances”.
■ On the other hand, sectors such as “Metal Products”, “Construction” and “Retail Trade” saw a rise.

[Fig. 6] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by industry compared to the previous year’s results(next fiscal year)
FY2011 survey
FY2012 survey

(%)

3.0

2.0

Non-manufacturing

OtherProcessing-type

Material-type

All industries

0.0

Manufacturing

1.0[Fig. 7] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by sector compared to the previous year’s results(next fiscal year)(%)

FY2011 survey

FY2012 survey

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

Note: Sectors only include those with 5 or more responding companies in the FY2012 survey.

iv

Pulp & Paper

Textiles & Apparels

Land Transportation

Warehousing & Harbor Transportation Services

Foods

Retail Trade

Transportation Equipment

Wholesale Trade

Iron & SteelOther Products

BanksElectric Appliances

Glass & Ceramics Products

Services

Real Estate

Nonferrous Metals

Chemicals

Pharmaceutical

Precision Instruments

Machinery

Information & Communication

Metal Products

Construction

Electric Power & Gas‐1.0

All industries

0.0