Industry associations
Industry associations

19th AIM International Workshop, December 13-14, 2013, Tsukuba, Japan

China’s Low Carbon Development Scenarios
Miao Ren， Jiang Kejun， Hu Xiulian
Energy Research Institute， China

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China is the biggest developing country in the world,
and also the biggest GHG emission country. Realizing
low carbon and environmental friendly development, isthe main task of China’s new government. Especially
under the pressure of heavy haze, some countermeasures have been taken to reduce the coalconsumption.
However, it must be realized that: the increasingenergy consumption and GHG emission is a developingproblem. In process of Urbanization and Industrialization,
there are a lot of rigid driving force from the infrastructure,
the living improvement. Until now, no country has
escaped from the historical principle.
In order to investigate low carbon development
pathway, several uncertainties must be considered:
economic upgrade, technology improvement, and clean
energy development. By applying the AIM models,complex problem can be simulated, including thescenarios of China’s economic transformation, the rational
development of consumption and infrastructure, thetechnologies improvement and so on. To set theexogenous parameters reasonably, the international
comparison are also considered.
This poster are partial of our research results. And a
lot of follow-up study are needed. Please give us more
help and suggestions. Thank you!
are shown,

Methodologies
Three AIM models are applied to investigate China’s
Low Carbon development:
AgingIndustrialization

AIM-CGE

Production Scenarios are partly derived from the Stock model

Population( 100million)

2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

13.0

13.4

14.0

14.3

14.5

14.4

13.8

7.3

5.5

3.5

1.9GDP Increasing Rates%(tenyear average)

Discussion with Industry Associations

Cement

100Mt

Setting two scenarios of urbanization, whichshould be accord to different IndustryStructures, Incomes and Social Security
Levels. But inthe model, we set exogenous.

Device Setting of Cement Sector

Consumption Structure Rural follow Urban，2007ruralclose to 2002 the whole country Tendency：Agriculture↓ Manufacturing↑↓Service↑ Local government→

煤coal

1煤制混合燃料
Energy Mix, Coal石油产品
Oil product

2油制混合燃料
Energy Mix, Oil

天然气Natural gas

3气制混合燃料
Energy Mix, Gas

生物质biomass

4生物质制混合燃料Energy Mix, Biomass

石灰石
Limestone

5球磨机Ball Mill (G)电Electricity

6立式磨机
Vertical Mill (G)similar to Japan(1965), the rural trail
bebind 8-10 years to the urban.

其他水泥成分Other
cement13水泥混合（熟料）
Cement mix

China in 2050
 BaU
Urban=1995 Japan

14管磨机
Tube mill电electrycity

15立式磨机Vertical mill

水泥产品
Cement productExporting
Coke

Export Coke

Rural =1980 Japan

Coking TranSintering

Existing
Coke Oven
New Coke
Oven
Advanced
Coke Oven

CoalElectric

Investment & Capital Formation
Investment on the heavy industry take big
share in the past 10 years.

SinterinSit ig Ore

Electric Jap and USA’s trend is the future of China

ScrapIronExcept that: Parts of Manufacturing Industry
will be kept in China

ElectricCoal

AdvancedSintering Furnace

TRTBlast furnace gas
recovery
Crude Iron

CO2

Recovery+CCS

Wet TRT

Crude Iron

New BOF

Coal(Advanced
BOF

Dry TRT

ElectricExistingElectric The
煤制混合能源FuelMix, Coal
FurnaceElectric

Casting and rolling

New Continuous Steel Casting

Coal

SteelProduct

Other
Progress

Steel

Crude Steel

Advanced Continuous Steel CastingElectric In CGE model, Iinvestment direction isendogenousCoal

Existing Continuous Steel Casting

MixedCrude Iron

Crude
Steel

Not Have
Recovery煤制混合能源Crude Steel

Converter

Recovery

Crude
Steel

FuelMoldMix, Coal

Crude SteelCrude
SteelConverter gas
recovery

Existing BOF

Not Have

Have
Not Have

Advanced ElectricFurnace

Sintering
Ore

Smelting Reduction

Crude
Iron

New Electric Furnace

New Sintering
Furnace

焦炭Retention Coke

Coke

Not Have
CDQ

Other Crude
Steel

Existing Blast
Furnace
New Blast
Furnace
AdvancedBlast Furnace

CoalHave 1
2CDQ

Coke

Blast Furnace

Electric

Existing Sintering
Furnace

CDQ

Smelting
Reduction

Power Supply

Capital Formation: Manufacturing, Construction

BaU
CM1
CM2

Trend: Transportation and Communications ,Service Industry, Financial Intermediation

Tech1
Tech2
Tech3

Tran =2025 USA

Industry Structure in Future

Distributed
Geothermal
power

Distributed
Solar power

Distributed
Natural gaspower

Naturalgas power

Fuel oilpower

Coalpower

BiomasspowerPrimary Energy

Geothermal power

Distributed Existing Solar PowerDistributed Advanced Solar PowerDistributed Gas-electric

New Gas-electric

Advanced Gas-electric

Advanced Gas-electric+CCS

Existing Oil Power

Advanced Oil Power Generation

Subcritical Power Generation

Supercritical Power Generation

Ultra Supercritical Power
Generation

IGCC

IGFC-CC

IGCC+CCS

Supercritical Power
Generation+CCS
Ultra Supercritical PowerGeneration+CCS

IGFC-CC+CCS

Biomass power generation

Nuclear
power

Hydroelectric

Enduse Energy

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass
Second Generation Nuclear
PowerImproved Second
Generation Nuclear Power
Third Generation Nuclear
PowerFourth Generation Nuclear
Power

Hydroelectric:Large units

Oil

Coal

Hydroelectric:Small units

Gas

Centralized
Solar power

Oil

Hydun

Centralized Existing Solar PowerGas

Unclear

Centralized Advanced Solar PowerHeatWindpower

PublicBuildings

混合水泥
Mixed cement

Device Setting of Iron/Steel Sector

Existing Onshore Wind
PowerAdvanced Onshore Wind
Power
Existing Offshore WindPowerAdvanced Offshore WindPower

Product & Service
DemandAIM-EnduseResident
Buildings

AIM-Enduse

Cement12先进窑CCS
Advanced kiln with CCS

电electricity
水泥熟料2
Clinker production(C)Close to the level of Japan in 196511悬浮预热器窑/预分解窑SP/NSP(C)

水泥熟料前体Clinker production(G) China' consumption structure (2007 ) is

Rural =1990 Japan9干法长窑
Dry long kiln(C)10干法竖窑
Dry shaft kiln(C)→Commercial↑ Communication→

Urban=2002 USA

8半湿法焙烧Semi wet type kiln(C)水泥混合燃料
Mixed cement fuelCO2WindEly
Passenger

7湿法焙烧Wet type kiln

BaU =2030 USA
Other
Secondary
Industries

Industry
Value-Added

AIM-STOCK
Freight

Kgce/tSaving Rates

Solar

SteelIron

100Mt

Kgce/t Scenario Setting:

AquicultureConstru
ction

Transportation

Service

CementSteelRural

Urban

Residentliving

Cement and Iron/Steel Sector

Macroeconomic Scenario

Introduction

Urbanization

ICoal
 The industrial structure is difficult to optimize obviously in short term, Tertiary industry 46-47% on 2020
 After 2020, the industrial adjustment speed will accelerate, and the work force structure and investment
addiction will change Industrialization Complete Time：BaU-2025，Tran-2020
 Construction industry is related to the urbanization process, peak stage:2010-2030
 Till 2050, a fair scale of Manufacturing industry will remain： World factory
 Till 2050, Secondary Industry Proportion ：BaU-36%，Tran-30%

Scenarios Settings
Four Scenarios are defined by two levels:
Economic Scenarios and Technology Scenarios

EconomyTechnology

ScenarioSlow Economic
Transformation

Accelerate Economic
Transformation

BaU

Tran

Technologicaladvances slowly

Technologicaladvances steadily

Technologyrevolution

Tech1

Tech2

Tech3

BaU

Same Economic
Structure

CM1

CM2

CM3

Same Energy
Efficiency

Economic BackgroundIndustrialization

Tertiary Industry' Development

Secondary Industry has reached a peak of40%, and Manufacturing industry of 35%
Industrialization will complete in future10-20years. China takes 40-50 years, Korea 40years, Japan 70 years
Deindustrialization will take a long trem:
Made in China ——Made for China
Urbanization
Urbanization will end in 2040
Long Term Uncertainty：2050 70%-80%
Influence Factors：Economic Transformation;
Social Security; Revenue reform
Ageing problem
Influence Factors: Labor, Saving Rate andConsumption structureOld before rich:producer/consumer =136%(2015), Jap=125%(2002), USA=113%(2007)

Development follows the sequence that
producer services first and living services
afterwards
Producer services began to rise from 2005,
BaU declines after2035, Tran declines after2030

CentralizedElectric

The Existing Transmission
UHV Transmission

Device Setting of Power Sector

Primary Energy and CO2 Emission

Electric