FFJ-BANQUE DE FRANCE WORKSHOPClimate change, natural
disasters, and financial risks
How could central banks integrate environmental
issues into their policies?
27 June 2023
9.30 - 18.00 (Paris time) | 16.30 - 1.00 (Tokyo time)On-site at Banque de France: 31 rue Croix des Petits-Champs 75001 Paris
Or online for peoples outside Paris area | In English
Registration: https://forms.gle/X78e7aLQ9QMpf1XL7
Contact: events_ffj@ehess.fr
Climate change and its associated natural disasters pose significant financial risks to economies
around the world. As a result, central banks are increasingly being called upon to integrate
environmental issues into their policies. This event will explore the various ways that central banks
can incorporate environmental risk into their decision-making, including the use of climate stresstests, the development of green financing initiatives, and the implementation of environmental
disclosure requirements. Through expert speakers and panel discussions, participants will gaina better understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and financial risk, aswell as the strategies and tools available to central banks to help mitigate these risks.
The workshop is organised by the FFJ/Banque de France lab with the support provided by the
ANR under the Labex Louis Bachelier and the MSH Paris Nord.

Programme(Paris time)- MORNING SESSIONS 9:30 - 13:00
9.30 | Opening remarks
Agnès BÉNASSY-QUÉRÉ (Deputy-Governor, Banque de France)
Makita SHIMOKAWA (Ambassador of Japan in France)

Session 1
IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS
9:40 - 11:10
Moderator: Sébastien LECHEVALIER (FFJ-EHESS)
Discussants: Maria-Sole PAGLIARI (Banque de France),
Camélia TURCU (Orleans University)

Paper 1 | Disasters and Inflation in the Euro Area
Ulrich VOLZ (SOAS)
Co-authors: John BEIRNE (ECB), Yannis DAFERMOS (SOAS), Alexander
KRIWOLUZKY (Martin Luther University), Nuobu RENZHI (Asian Development Bank
Institute), Jana WITTICH (DIW Berlin)

Paper 2 | Impact of Floods on Real Economy, Land Prices, and Financial
Intermediation in Japan

Nao SUDO (Bank of Japan)
Co-authors: Takuro ASHIZAWA (BoJ), Kakuho FURUKAWA (BoJ), Ryuichiro
HASHIMOTO (BoJ), Yoshiyasu KOIDE (BoJ), Tomomi NAKA (BoJ),Kenji NISHIZAKI(BoJ), Genichiro SUZUKI (BoJ)

Paper 3 | Governance, Risk and Financial Impact of Mega Disasters: Lessons
from Japan

Franz WALDENBERGER (German Institute for Japanese Studies)
Co-editor of the book: Akiko KAMESAKA (Aoyama Gakuin University)

Q&A session | Ask your questions
Coffee breakSession 2
NATURAL DISASTERS: REGULATION,
INSURANCE, AND WELFARE EVALUATION
11:30 - 13:00
Moderator: Marie BRIÈRE (Amundi)
Discussant: Nao SUDO (Bank of Japan)

Paper 4 | Preferences, behaviour, and welfare outcomes against disasters:

a review

Yasuyuki SAWADA (The University of Tokyo)

Paper 5 | Measuring exposure of people and assets to climate-related

hazards: results for OECD & G20 and application to the financial sector
Ivan HAŠČIČ (OECD), Jolien NOELS (OECD)

Paper 6 | Insurance and Natural Disasters in Pre-war Japan
Toshihiro OKUBO (Keio University)
Co-authors: Tetsuji OKAZAKI (The University of Tokyo), Eric STROBL (University ofBern)

Q&A session | Ask your questions
Lunch break- AFTERNOON SESSIONS 14:30 - 18:00

Session 3
MONETARY POLICY AND
GHG EMISSIONS
14:30 - 16:00
Moderator: Sophie HAINCOURT (Banque de France)
Discussant: Urszula SZCZERBOWICZ (Banque de France)

Paper 7 | Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential
Regulation Tame Green Swans?

Pauline AVRIL (Orleans University), Camélia TURCU (Orleans University)

Co-author: Grégory LEVIEUGE (Orleans University, Banque de France)

Paper 8 | Firms’ greenhouse emissions and monetary policy
Pedram POURABBASVAFA (Paris 1 University)
Co-author: Olena HAVRYLCHYK (Paris 1 University)

Paper 9 | Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan
Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO (Keio University)
Co-author: Sumiko TAKAOKA (Seikei University)

Q&A session | Ask your questions
Coffee break

Roundtable
CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURALDISASTER AND FINANCIAL RISK
beyond the Central Banks perspective,
involving other stakeholders
16:15 - 17:45
Moderator: Sébastien LECHEVALIER (FFJ-EHESS)
Panelists
Tristan HUON DE KERMADEC - AXA
Kei KATO - Tokio Marine
Alice LEGRIX DE LA SALLE - AXA Climate
Emmanuel ROCHER - ACPR
Leigh WOLFROM - OECD

Q&A session | Ask your questions
17.45 | Closing remarks
Bruno CABRILLAC (Banque de France)
Sébastien LECHEVALIER (FFJ-EHESS)Introductions and chairs(alphabetical order)
Agnès BÉNASSY- QUÉRÉ (Banque de France)
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré is Deputy-Governor at Banque de France, on leave from
University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Paris School of Economics where she
is a professor of economics. Prior to joining the Banque de France, she was Chief
economist at the French Treasury (2020-2023). From 2012 until 2017, she chaired theFrench Council of Economic Analysis. Prior positions include Director of CEPII, theFrench research institute in international economics (2006-2012), and academic
positions at the Universities of Paris-Nanterre, Lille and Cergy-Pontoise, as well as at
École Polytechnique. She was also a member of the French macro-prudential
authority, the tax advisory council, the productivity council, the Franco-German councilof economic experts, and the Banque of France general board. She was in charge of
the CEPR European Economic Architecture Research and Policy Network, and was a non-resident fellow at
Bruegel. Her research interests focus on the international monetary system and European macroeconomic
policy.

Marie BRIÈRE (Amundi)Marie Brière, PhD, is Head of the Investor Intelligence and Academic Partnership at
Amundi Institute. She is a senior associate researcher at Paris Dauphine University
and Université Libre de Bruxelles. She conducts research on portfolio choice, with arecent focus on sustainable finance, robo advice and pension, to advise the strategic
decisions of institutional investors and the design of investment solutions for individual
investors. She is the Chairman of Inquire Europe, chairman of the Scientific Committeeof the European Savings Observatory and a member of the expert group advising the
ESMA Standing Committee on Financial Innovation and a member of several scientificcouncils, such as that of the European Capital Market Institute of CEPS. Her scientificarticles have been published in academic journals and her work has been featured in several news outlets
including the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. She received the Markowitz award for her article
with Zvi Bodie on "Sovereign Wealth and Risk Management: A Framework for Optimal Asset Allocation ofSovereign Wealth", published in the Journal of Investment Management. She holds a PhD in economics fromthe University Paris 10 and graduated from ENSAE.

Bruno CABRILLAC (Banque de France)
Bruno Cabrillac entered the Banque de France (Bank of France, Central Bank) in
1984 as an economist in the Foreign Relation Department, then in the Researchand Forecast Department. He was seconded to the Ministry of Finance as Financial
Counsellor in Cairo (1989-1992) and Tokyo (1994-1996) after spending eighteenmonths as a foreign exchange and bond trader. In 1997, he was appointed Head of
the African Department (Zone Franc) of the Banque de France. In April 2001, he wasseconded to the Ministry of Finance to become Trade Commissioner and Banquede France representative in Hong Kong and Macau. In July 2005, he was appointed
Financial Counsellor for Africa at the French Ministry of Finance (Treasury andEconomic Policy Directorate General). In October 2008, he was appointed Director of
economics and international European relations at the Banque de France and since last October he is Deputy
Director General Economics and International.

Sophie HAINCOURT (Banque de France)
Sophie Haincourt is the head of the International Macroeconomic Division of theBanque de France. Educated at Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne and Cardiff University,
her topics of interest are international macro. Prior to joining the Banque de France,
she was Head of Economic studies at EXPERIAN and Senior economist at Oxford
Economics.

Sébastien LECHEVALIER (FFJ-EHESS)
Sébastien Lechevalier is an economist and a professor at EHESS (School of
Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, Paris), specialised in Japanese economy
and Asian Capitalisms. He is also founder and president of the Fondation FranceJapon de l’EHESS (FFJ). Trained as a labor economist, he has extensively publishedon various dimensions of the Japanese economy, in comparative perspective,
including: Lessons from the Japanese experience. Towards an alternative economic
policy? (ENS Editions 2016), and The Great Transformation of Japanese Capitalism(Routledge, 2014). Other research interests include innovation (Innovation beyond
technology, Springer, 2019), industrial policies, and inequalities. He has been avisiting researcher and a professor in several institutions, including: The University ofTokyo, Kyoto University, Hitotsubashi University, Waseda University, Doshisha University, Canon Institute for
Global Studies.

Makita SHIMOKAWA (Ambassador of Japan in France)

Makita Shimokawa is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary ofJapan in France. He has an extensive diplomatic career spanning over three decades.
Shimokawa joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1984 and has held various positionsof increasing responsibility. He served as Director of Economic Integration Division
and National Security Policy Division, and as Deputy Director-General of Asian andOceanian Affairs Bureau. He has also served as Deputy Minister and heldambassadorial posts in Indonesia, Belgium, and NATO. Shimokawa is a graduate of
the University of Tokyo, Faculty of Law. With his expertise and dedication, he strives
to enhance bilateral relations between Japan and France.

Urszula SZCZERBOWICZ (Banque de France)
Urszula Szczerbowicz is a research economist in the International Macroeconomics
Division at the Banque de France. Her research focuses on issues in monetary andfinancial economics. She worked previously in CEPII and was a visiting scholar at
Hitotsubashi University and at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry(RIETI). She holds a PhD in economics from LUISS Guido Carli and Sciences Po. Her
thesis on unconventional monetary policies won the Pirou/Aguirre Basualdo prize in2013.

Speakers(alphabetical order)
Pauline AVRIL (Orleans University)
Pauline Avril is currently a fourth year of PhD in the "International Economics andSustainable Development" Research Team at LEO (Laboratoire d’Economied’Orléans). Before starting her PhD she had carried on a Master/Magistère in
Development Economics at the University of Clermont-Auvergne. Her thesis "Natural
disasters and financial stability" is under the direction of Camélia Turcu and Grégory
Levieuge. Her different works aim at analysing the impacts of natural disasters
shocks on the financial sphere at different level. The main objective of these works
is to understand how physical risk is acting on our financial systems to improve theirresilience. During her PhD she had present her works in numerous international
conference. Moreover, she is currently completing a visiting at the Banque de France
working on the problematic of the role of monetery policy in the climate transition.

Paper: Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential
Regulation Tame Green Swans?
Co-speaker: Camelia TURCU (Orleans University)
We empirically investigate the impact of natural disasters on the external finance premium (EFP), conditional on
the stringency of macroprudential regulation. The intensity of natural disasters is measured through an original
set of geophysical indicators for a sample of 88 countries over the period 1996-2016. Using local projections, weshow that, following storms, the EFP significantly rises (drops) when macroprudential regulation is lax (stringent).
This suggests that regulated financial systems could foster favourable financing conditions to replace destroyed
capital with more productive capital. Macroprudential stringency seems less crucial in the case of floods, which
are more predictable and thus may prompt self-discipline.

Ivan HAŠČIČ (OECD)
Ivan Haščič is a senior economist at the OECD Environment Directorate. He leadsOECD’s work on environmental data, statistics and indicators, including tracking
environmental policy instruments, measuring climate actions and policies, andsupporting the mainstreaming of environmental considerations in economic policy
analysis (e.g. measuring environmentally adjusted multi-factor productivity growth,
patenting in environmentally related technologies, revenue from environmentally
related taxes), and developing methods to monitor air quality, climate hazards, land
cover and the ocean using new sources of data (e.g. earth observation, geospatial,administrative). Previously, he worked on empirical analyses of the effects of public
policy on environmental innovation and international technology transfer. He also
contributed to the OECD’s work on the implications of behavioural economics forenvironmental policy design. He holds a PhD. in environmental and natural resource economics from Oregon
State University, and Master’s degree in environmental and development economics from the University ofOslo and in finance and banking from the University of Economics in Bratislava.

Paper: Measuring exposure of people and assets to climate-related hazards:
results for OECD & G20 and application to the financial sector
Co-speaker: Jolien NOELS (OECD)
Understanding exposure to climate-related natural hazards can help implement stronger mitigation measuresand accelerate adaptation efforts in countries. It can also inform financial sector adaptation efforts. OECD
work on assessing the exposure of people and assets to climate-related hazards (extreme temperature,
extreme precipitation, drought, wildfire, wind threats, river flooding, coastal flooding, sea level rise) will bepresented. Indicator methodology (for observed and forward-looking hazards), selected results for OECD and
G20 countries, and initial results of case studies for European manufacturing and the global steel sector will
be discussed.

Tristan HUON DE KERMADEC (AXA)
Tristan Huon de Kermadec is Group Head of Short Tail Underwriting at AXA.
Experienced Property Specialist with a demonstrated history of working in theinsurance industry. Skilled in Portfolio Management, Financial Risk, Risk Management
and Property & Casualty Insurance. Contribute to P&C Underwriting and Businessstrategy for Climate and Sustainability at AXA Group. Strong Commercial Lines
professional graduated from Centre d'Etudes Actuarielles.

Kei KATO (Tokio Marine)
Kei Kato joined Tokio Marine in 1993 and his 30 year career at Tokio Marine spansvarious areas of the insurance business such as marine insurance claims, loss
prevention consulting, specialty risks underwriting and management of overseas
subsidiaries. He has also been involved in the strategic business planning of Tokio
Marine’s international business at Tokio Marine’s holding company. Since 2015, hehas been engaged in government and external relations, monitoring global regulatory
developments representing the views of Tokio Marine and the broader Japanese nonlife market towards regulators and external industry organizations. Since 2018, he has
been posted in London monitoring topics such as UK/European regulations, insurance
markets, geopolitical trends, climate & sustainability as well as involvement in externalorganizations such as the Geneva Association, an insurance industry think tank. He
graduated from the University of Tokyo with a BA in Law in 1993, and subsequently obtained an LL.M. degreefrom Boston University School of Law in 2004. He is registered as an attorney for the state of New York in the
United States of America (currently not practicing).

Alice LEGRIX DE LA SALLE (AXA Climate)
Alice is leading AXA Climate’s consulting activity to financial players, as well as the
Financing activity aiming at co-creating investment funds to support companies andprojects with regenerative purpose. After gaining experience in digital & innovation
consulting, Alice joined AXA Climate at the company's creation to manage the Finance,
Strategy and Marketing functions. She then contributed to launching the company's
consulting activity in the agriculture and food sector, before giving impetus to the
Financing business, with the creation of the Regenerative Agriculture fund (impact PE
fund, art 9) co-created with Tikehau Capital and Unilever. Alice graduated from Ecoledes Mines de Paris.

Jolien NOELS (OECD)
Jolien Noels is a policy analyst at the OECD Environment Directorate. She works
on finance for climate action, exploring data, methods and metrics to assess thealignment of the financial sector with the Paris Agreement. For this, she studies bothreal-economy investments and financial instruments, adaptation and mitigation,
corporate climate action and data and climate change scenarios and policies. Prior,
she was a researcher at the Grantham Research Institute. Jolien holds a MSc in
Environmental Economics from the London School of Economics and a MA in Applied
Economics from the University of Antwerp.

Paper: Measuring exposure of people and assets to climaterelated hazards: results for OECD & G20 and application to
the financial sector
Co-speaker: Ivan Haščič (OECD)
Understanding exposure to climate-related natural hazards can help implement stronger mitigation measuresand accelerate adaptation efforts in countries. It can also inform financial sector adaptation efforts. OECD workon assessing the exposure of people and assets to climate-related hazards (extreme temperature, extremeprecipitation, drought, wildfire, wind threats, river flooding, coastal flooding, sea level rise) will be presented.
Indicator methodology (for observed and forward-looking hazards), selected results for OECD and G20
countries, and initial results of case studies for European manufacturing and the global steel sector will be
discussed.

Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO (Keio University)
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto is Professor of Economics and Finance at the Faculty of
Economics, Keio University, a principal at Economics Design Inc., a research
associate at Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. He received PhDfrom the University of California, San Diego in 2005. He worked for Australian National
University, Hitotsubashi University, and Yokohama National University before joining
Keio University in 2022. His research has focused on Financial Econometrics andMacroeconometrics. He has been awarded the 1st GPIF Finance Awards (2017), 2015
Junko Maru Prize, and 2014 Securities Analysts Journal Prize.

Paper: Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan
We examine the relationship between carbon emissions and the market perception of firms' default risk
measured by corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads in Japan. While corporate revenue size is the mostsignificant factor of carbon emissions, pressure from investors has a significant decreasing effect on carbon
emissions, which is greater for investment-grade companies. We find that carbon emissions have time-varying
effects on corporate CDS spreads, which supports the "investor awareness'' hypothesis across sectors andcredit quality. The sectoral impacts indicate that carbon emissions are priced prominently in the CDS spreadsof firms in sectors where the transition to carbon-free energy sources appears relatively less complicated andless expensive. Finally, we report the impacts of carbon emissions on the CDS spread curve, where they are
priced in both short- and long-term CDS spreads, and high carbon emissions steepen the CDS spread curve.

Toshihiro OKUBO (Keio University)
Toshihiro Okubo is Professor of International Economics at the Faculty of Economics,
Keio University. His areas of expertise encompass international trade, regional
economy, quantitative economic history, and economic geography. His current research
topics are globalization, digitalization, natural disasters, trade and geography, andregional economy of Japan. With over 80 international journal articles to his credit,
he has contributed articles to renowned international journals such as the Journal ofInternational Economics, Journal of Economic History, European Economic Review,
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, and Journal of Environmental Economics andManagement. In addition to his academic pursuits, he is involved in policy consulting
and serves as a member of several government committees

Paper: Insurance and Natural Disasters in Pre-war Japan
This study explores the impact of natural disasters on the insurance market and individual behavior in pre-war
Japan. Using unique panel prefectural level datasets from 1910 to 1940, including data on natural disasters(big fires), fire insurance market (claims, new policies, and active policies), and small unintentional fires, wefound that after big fires, people tended to buy fire insurance as a precautionary measure. We observed asignificant increase in the number of claims and new policies following big fires (natural disasters). This, in turn,led to an increase in small unintentional fires. Despite the prevalence of natural disasters and insurance, theprimitive insurance market in pre-war Japan resulted in moral hazard and adverse selection.

Maria-Sole PAGLIARI (Banque de France)
Maria Sole Pagliari is Research Economist in the Monetary Policy Section inside the
Direction of Monetary and Financial Studies at Banque de France. She holds a PhD
in Economics from Rutgers University. Her research interests include monetary policy,
international finance, macroeconometrics and economics of climate change.

Paper: The CO2 content of ECB's TLTROIII and its
greening
Central Bank operational choices in designing asset purchase programmes andsetting collateral frameworks have been shown to disproportionately benefit carbon-

intensive sectors of the economy. To date, refinancing operations have received less attention. In this paper,
we investigate the emissions content of the ECB's Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) III.
We use confidential data on loans granted by EU institutions from the AnaCredit dataset as well as information
about TLTRO III participation. This information is then combined with sectoral emission intensity to study the
TLTRO programme's carbon bias. Using a theoretical model, we then investigate a central bank's interestsetting policy conditional on the share of loans to polluting firms in banks' portfolios and on the likelihood of thetransition to a low-carbon economy. Finally, we discuss the legal and practical feasibility of a “green” TLTRO
programme.

Pedram POURABBASVAFA (Paris 1 University)
Pedram Pourabbasvafa is a doctoral candidate at Paris 1 University PanthéonSorbonne. He has received a M.Sc. in Financial Economics and a M.Sc. in FinanceTechnology Data from Paris 1 University Panthéon-Sorbonne. His research concerns
monetary policy and financial economics.

Paper: Firms’ greenhouse emissions and monetary
policyThis paper uses an event-study methodology to explore the impact of unanticipatedmonetary policy changes on the stock prices of firms with different greenhouseemission intensities. We show that the stock returns of brown firms react more aggressively to monetary policychanges compared to green firms. This finding is explained by fundamental differences between green andbrown firms. Firstly, green firms own more intangible assets while brown firms hold more tangible assets. Since
tangible assets have stronger collateral value, this results in a stronger credit channel of monetary policy forbrown firms. Secondly, brown firms operate more in industries that are more sensitive to changes in monetary
policy. Controlling for asset tangibility and industries’ reactivity to monetary policy, we find no difference between
green and brown firms’ reactions to monetary policy. Our results are robust across different measures ofmonetary shocks and different measures of firm environmental footprint. Our findings contribute to thediscussions about the market neutrality principle practiced by central banks and the greening of the monetary
policy.

Emmanuel ROCHER (ACPR, Banque de France)
Emmanuel Rocher joined the French Authority in charge of the supervision andresolution of banks and insurance companies in 2019. He was appointed Director forinternational Affairs in 2021, after various positions at Banque de France and ACPR.
In particular, he served as Chief of staff of Governor Villeroy de Galhau from 2015 to2019. His current department is involved in the negotiations of the standards being
discussed at international and European levels, for both the banking and insurance
sectors. He represents the ACPR in the Policy and Standards Group (PSG) of theBasel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Yasuyuki SAWADA (The University of Tokyo)
Yasuyuki Sawada is Professor at the Faculty of Economics, of the University of Tokyo.
From March 2017 until August 2021, he was Chief Economist of Asian Development
Bank (ADB) and Director General of its Economic Research and Regional Cooperation
Department (ERCD). His key research areas are development economics, empiricalmicroeconomics, economics of disasters, field surveys and experiments, and Asian
economies. He has worked with research and policy organizations, among them JICA,
RIETI, ERIA, IDE-JETRO, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE),
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), International Rice ResearchInstitute (IRRI), International Water Management Institute (IWMI), BRAC Bangladesh,and World Bank. He obtained Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University.

Paper: Preferences, behaviour, and welfare outcomes against disasters:
a review
This paper reviews the existing studies on the link between natural disasters, poverty, and economic

development. It emphasizes that both developed and developing countries remain vulnerable to different typesof disasters, including COVID-19. Yet, disasters have a greater impact on developing economies, affecting
disadvantaged groups. This paper describes the disaster-poverty nexus, the impact of disaster exposure on
preferences and behaviors, disaster insurance mechanisms, welfare consequences, and the case of the Great
East Japan Earthquake. In summary, the paper emphasizes the need for comprehensive approaches toaddress the social, economic, and behavioral aspects of disaster risk reduction and recovery, particularly in thecontext of poverty reduction and sustainable development.

Nao SUDO (Bank of Japan)
Nao Sudo is the Head of Economic and Financial Studies Division, Institute for Monetaryand Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. His Division is responsible for research onbroad issues of economics and finance. Prior to his current role, he was the headof Financial System Research Division at Financial System and Bank Examination
Department. Nao Sudo was born in 1977. He studied economics in Kyoto and Boston
and holds a PhD by Boston University.

Paper: Impact of Floods on Real Economy, Land Prices,and Financial Intermediation in Japan
Japan has historically been plagued by floods. In recent years, a series of large-scale floods have also caused
direct damage of over JPY 1 trillion to tangible fixed assets nationwide. We combine the granular data on flood
damage and land prices with macroeconomic variables to quantitatively assess the indirect impacts, i.e.,
secondary impacts of the direct effects, of floods on economic activity, land prices and financial intermediation.
We also present tentative projections on how floods will affect economic activity in the future, using climatechange estimates from an external organization.

Camélia TURCU (Orleans University)
Camélia Turcu is Professor of Economics at the University of Orléans and a research
fellow at the Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orléans (LEO). She is co-director of the LEO
research team “International Economics and Sustainable Development”, and the
MSH Val de Loire Deputy Director. Her research areas include international (macro)economics, and environmental and resource economics. She has extensive academic
experience, including serving as an expert scientist for the European Commission.
Camélia holds a Doctorate and a Habilitation in Economics, her research has earned
her accolades, including the TIMTED Young Researcher Prize. She is strongly
involved in regional (APR IA CriseReactGlobal), national (Labex Voltaire), andinternational (H2020 Untangled) research grants. She is also the scientific coordinatorof the Institut Louis Bachelier Research Initiative “Energy transition and the changes in economic modeling”,
launched by LEO and CA CL.

Paper: Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential
Regulation Tame Green Swans?
Co-speaker: Pauline AVRIL (Orleans University)
We empirically investigate the impact of natural disasters on the external finance premium (EFP), conditional on
the stringency of macroprudential regulation. The intensity of natural disasters is measured through an original
set of geophysical indicators for a sample of 88 countries over the period 1996-2016. Using local projections, weshow that, following storms, the EFP significantly rises (drops) when macroprudential regulation is lax (stringent).
This suggests that regulated financial systems could foster favourable financing conditions to replace destroyed
capital with more productive capital. Macroprudential stringency seems less crucial in the case of floods, which
are more predictable and thus may prompt self-discipline.

Ulrich VOLZ (SOAS)
Ulrich Volz is Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Sustainable
Finance at SOAS, University of London. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at theGerman Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), Visiting Professor at
the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Honorary Professor of
Economics at the University of Leipzig. Ulrich is co-founder and chair of the Japan
Economy Network, academic director of the University Network for Strengthening
Macrofinancial Resilience to Climate and Environmental Change, a director of the
Global Research Alliance for Sustainable Finance and Investment, and a memberof the CEPR Sustainable Finance Research and Policy Network. He serves on the
Sustainable Finance Advisory Committee of the German Federal Government andthe advisory panel of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ). Ulrich was FFJ/Banque de France
Fellow at EHESS in Paris, and taught at Peking University, Kobe University, Hertie School of Governance, Freie
Universität Berlin, Central University of Finance and Economics, and the Institute of Developing Economies(IDE-JETRO). He spent stints working at the ECB and EBRD and held visiting positions at the University of
Oxford, University of Birmingham, Aoyama Gakuin University, ECB, Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia
and the Asian Development Bank Institute, where he previously served on the Advisory Council. Ulrich waspart of the UN Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System and a member of the NGFS-INSPIRE
Study Group on Biodiversity and Financial Stability. He has acted as an advisor to several governments,
central banks, international organisations and development agencies on matters of macroeconomic policy,
sustainable finance and development.

Paper: Disasters and Inflation in the Euro Area for which we recently got
an R&R from the Journal of Banking and FinanceThis paper investigates the impact of disasters on inflation in the euro area. We estimate panel and countryspecific structural vector autoregression models by combining estimated damages of disaster events withmonthly data for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for all euro area countries over the period 19962021. Besides estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine the effects on its 12 main subindices and further sub-categories of food price inflation. We find significant positive effects of disasters on
overall headline inflation, with diverging results at the sub-index level. We also find heterogeneous inflation
effects across different countries.

Franz WALDENBERGER (German Institute for JapaneseStudies)Franz Waldenberger has been Director of the German Institute for Japanese Studies(DIJ) in Tokyo since October 2014. He is on leave from Munich University where heholds a professorship for Japanese Economy. His research focuses on the Japanese
Economy, Corporate Governance and International Management. He is editor inchief of the international peer reviewed journal Contemporary Japan. His recent
publications include The Future of Financial Systems in the Digital Age (2022, coedited with M. Heckel). As member of the Japanese German Forum and the board of
the Japanese German Business Association, he has for many years been working forthe betterment of German Japanese relations.

Book: Governance, Risk and Financial Impact of Mega Disasters: Lessons
from Japan
This book addresses researchers, practitioners, and policy makers interested in understanding the financial
implications of mega-disaster risks as well as in seeking possible solutions with regard to governance, theallocation of financial risk, and resilience. The first part of this book takes the example of Japan and studies
the impact of mega earthquakes on government finance, debt positions of private household and businesses,
capital markets, and investor behavior by way of economic modeling as well as case studies from recent
major disasters. In Japan, the probability of a mega earthquake hitting dense agglomerations is very high.
Like other large-scale natural disasters, such events carry systemic risks, i.e., they can trigger disruptions
endangering the stability of the social, economic, and political order. The second part looks at the experienceof the Japanese government as a provider of disaster-risk finance and an active partner in international
collaboration. It concludes with an analysis of the general characteristics of systemic risk and approaches toimprove resilience.

Leigh WOLFROM (OECD)
Leigh Wolfrom is a policy analyst in the OECD’s Directorate for Financial andEnterprise Affairs where he leads the directorate’s work on the financial managementof catastrophe risk. In this role, he has provided analysis and reports to the OECD
Insurance and Private Pensions on a variety of disaster risk financing issues, including
the financial management of flood risk, the contribution of reinsurance markets tomanaging catastrophe risks, the role of catastrophe risk insurance programmes inenhancing insurance availability and affordability and enhancing the insurance sector
contribution to climate adaptation. He led the development of the OECD guidanceon establishing disaster risk financing strategies to address the financial impacts ofnatural and human-made catastrophes. He has also developed a number of reports
on emerging catastrophe perils, such as cyber risks and infectious disease outbreaks, including a report on
responding to the pandemic protection gap and an examination of insurance coverage for cyber-terrorism.
Prior to joining the OECD, Leigh Wolfrom worked in the Financial Sector Policy Branch at the Canadian
Department of Finance and at Global Affairs Canada on international financing issues. He has an M.A. in
International Affairs from Norman Paterson School of International Affairs (Carleton University) and a B.A. in
Economics from the University of British Columbia.