PRESS RELEASE
La Niña takes over El Niño: a favorably cooler weather,but many unknowns
Japan, July 24, 2024 – The second half of 2024 is expected to be marked by theappearance of La Niña. This phenomenon, whose extent and consequences
remain uncertain, is likely to cause weather changes in multiple parts of theglobe.
La Niña and El Niño: two alternating phenomena
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale oceanic-atmosphericphenomenon originating from abnormal variations in surface watertemperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It comprises two opposing
phenomena – La Niña and El Niño – which historically occur approximately every
2 to 3 years. The current unprecedented situation, ongoing since 2019, casts
significant uncertainties over the future effects.
Cooler weather but more frequent extreme events
La Niña brings cooler and wetter weather. Its arrival is thus positively anticipatedin various regions such as Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia, which
are expected to receive heavy rains from December 2024 to August 2025.
Conversely, western Canada, northern United States, Japan and the Korean
peninsula are anticipating a colder winter.
However, La Niña mainly leads to an increase in extreme weather events. One ofthe main anomalies expected at this stage is the rise in the number of hurricanes
along the Atlantic coast of the United States.
A double effect on global agricultural production• Increase in agricultural production in the Asia-Pacific region
Major producing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, such as India (2nd largest
producer of rice, wheat, and sugarcane), Indonesia (world's largest producer ofpalm oil and 3rd largest producer of rice), and Australia (4th largest producer ofbarley and canola), are expected to see a significant increase in production. Thiswill likely ease commodity prices and mitigate inflation risks in the region.
• Negative impact on North and South American harvests

Conversely, La Niña is expected to reduce agricultural yields in North and SouthAmerica by causing droughts and cold spells that will particularly affect wheat(United States) and soybeans (Brazil). Non-cereal commodities will also be highly
sensitive to weather fluctuations. Regional production of coffee, cocoa, and fruits
will be particularly at risk over the next year.
Increase in piracy in the Arabian Sea
La Niña is expected to bring warmer and drier weather to the Horn of Africa by
the end of the year, plunging several countries into food insecurity. It is worth
recalling that the 2011 famine in Somalia, partly due to La Niña, caused the deathof 260,000 people. This situation increases the number of households dependent
on fishing. This phenomenon, linked to the depletion of marine resources, is likely
to fuel tensions and increase the propensity of these populations to turn topiracy as an alternative source of income.
The rise in hurricanes on the U.S. East Coast threatens oil production
The increase in the number of hurricanes along the Atlantic coast of the UnitedStates and in the Gulf of Mexico could cause significant damage to offshore oil
installations. Figures from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement(BSEE) show that up to 95% of Gulf of Mexico oil production was halted on August29, 2021, after Hurricane Ida. A drop in production is therefore very likely, with theGulf of Mexico accounting for 15% of total U.S. crude oil production, 45% of total
refining capacity, and 51% of total natural gas processing capacity.
The Panama Canal finally at a proper level
Dependent on freshwater from numerous lakes and rivers in its watershed, thePanama Canal is expected to see its level finally rise after a year of drought andlogistical disruptions, reducing pressure on global freight operations.

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