The 23RD AIM International Workshop

Climate Change Impacts to Ecosystems

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts

Change of Temp. & Precip.
Agriculturalsuitability

LandslideSpecies distribution changeThreats
to habitats

Forest fire

Connectivity

Spatial Prioritization
Invasive sp.

(2/20)

Research Questions
How/Where should we…
Connectivity
1. Connect to assist the migration of species asmuch as possible by climate change?

Spatial prioritization
2. Conserve considering both of direct and indirect
impacts by climate change?

(3/20)

Part 1 :Connect to assist the migration of species
by climate change as much as possible?
- Topographic linkages(Published) Mo, Y., Lee, D.K., Song, K., Kim., H.G., and Park, S.J.,“Applying topographic classification, based on hydrological process, to design habitat linkages for climate change”, Forests

Physical environments
as “arena” of biological activity (Hunter, 1988)
Animals

PlantsTopography

Boulders androck outcrops

Gravelly
lower slope

Sandy andsilty desert floor

Influence of topography and soils on distribution of plants and animals (revised by Hugget, 2004)

Topographic linkages“to support movement by species associated with land facet(5/24)(based on topography), today and in the future.” (Brost and Beier, 2012)

Study sites- 3 Sample sites- Large forests needed toconnectabc(6/24)

Study flowTwo
topographicclassification
Represent
species
distributions
Least Cost
Path (LCP)(7/24)

1. Morphometric Topographic Classification
Concept(Jenness et al., 2012)(8/24)

2. Generic Topographic Classification

Backslope

Footslope

ShoulderBackslope

Footslope

ShoulderBackslope

ShoulderShoulderFootslope

SummitFootslope

Soil-landscape units

Concept

ShoulderFootslope

Simple slope

The soil-landscape units by genericclassification (revised by Park et al., 2001)

Toeslope
Toeslope
ChannelComplex slope(9/24)

Spatial relationship with coniferous and deciduousforests
Generic topographic classes represents better

Middleslope

Flatslope

Morphometric

Generic(10/24)Morphometric

Generic

Width (Core)
Parameter/Area
SpatialDifference(11/24)• Identified the possibility of using topography• The generic topographic classification was superior thanthe morphometric.

• However…not perfect. We need to consider both of biotic
and abiotic features in ecosystems.

Further research• Identify the other abiotic features such as soil, geology, andwater.

(12/24)

Part 2 :Conserve to consider both of direct
and indirect impacts by climate change?
- direct vs both- stepwise planning

Study site
- South Korea- 1km X 1km Grids- 96,970 Planning units(14/24)

Study flow – direct and both

Climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) in 2030s, 2050s

Present
Climatesensitivespecies
potential
distributions

Futureclimatesensitivespecies
potential
distributions

Prioritization(MARXAN)
Considering
direct impacts

Four Indirect climate change
impacts
Agriculture suitability

Forest fireLandslide

Invasive species
potential distributions

Prioritization(MARXAN)
Considering
direct & Indirectimpacts(15/24)

Study flow – stepwise planning
Climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) in 2030s, 2050s

Presentclimate
sensitive
speciespotential
distributions

2030s’
climatesensitive
speciespotential
distributions

2030s’
climatesensitive
speciespotential
distributions

Prioritization(MARXAN)
Present conservation
planning

2030s’ Indirect climate change impacts
Agriculture suitability

Forest fireLandslide

Invasive species
potential distributions

2050s’
climatesensitive
speciespotential
distributions

2050s’ Indirect climate change impacts
Agriculture suitability

Forest fireLandslide

Invasive species
potential distributions

Prioritization(MARXAN)
2030s’ conservation
planning(16/24)

Prioritization - MARXAN (Developed by Queensland Univ. in Australia)- Design the new protected area network- Consider threats (cost) and efficiency (minimum total score)- Applying Simulated Annealing Algorithm (SA)①②③Min(Total Score) = ∑ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶+ BLM∑ 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 + ∑ 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 × 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
PUs

PUs

PUs

① The total cost of the prioritization area
② The total boundary length, multiplied by a modifier(BLM, Boundary Length Modifier)③ The penalty for not adequately representing conservation targets*reps. 100 times(17/20)Prioritization - MARXAN (Developed by Queensland Univ. in Australia)

Total Score= (1+2+1) + (1*12) + 0= 4 + 12 + 0= 16
Cost: number in each box
Boundary: 1Penalty: 10 by each species(18/20)- Mountain and Alpine area more important- Fragmentation: Direct > BothDirectBothDirect

BothPrioritization
HighLow

2030s

2050s

• Identified areas need to be expanded for the future• Western regions and Alpine areas

PrioritizationHighLow

Present - 2030s

2030s – 2050s

• Applying both more useful, less fragmented• Usefulness of stepwise planning
Limitations and further research• Need to apply the interactions between impacts• Different type of ecosystems• Effect of planning-unit(Under review) Mo, Y., Lee, D.K., Kim., H.G., Huber, P.R., and Thorne, J.H., “Different influences of planning-unit characteristics on
systematic conservation planning according to the human footprint level”, Biodiversity and Conservation• Other impacts by human• Consider connectivity & spatial prioritization simultaneously(21/24)

The 23RD AIM International Workshop

Consider connectivity & spatial prioritization simultaneously(22/24)

The 23RD AIM International Workshop

Ecosystem
ClimateSensitive
species (30)

Invasive
species (7)ForestLandslideprobability

Agriculture
Forest fireprobability

Agricultural
suitability (3)HighLow(24/24)