Energy and Climate Crises: winners andlosers and the role of nuclear power
2023-11-28 NRG Briefing on COP28

Nobuo TANAKA 田中伸男
Chair, CIGS Study Group on Next Generation Nuclear Energy Utilization
Chair, the Steering Committee of ICEF
Executive Director Emeritus, the IEACEO, Tanaka Global Inc
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 1

Ukraine I & II

50th Anniversary: IEA was established for the 1973 Oil
Shock
IEA’s mission is energy security : it released the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Five times.
Libyan Crisis

IEA
establishment

Gulf War

Hurricane

OPEC +alliance

OPEC + cuts
9.7 mmbpd

Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of IEA says that we are in themiddle of the “first truly global energy crisis”.
2IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 2

“Net Zero by 2050” surprised OPEC and Oil Majors: The IEA Shock!
carbon - lowMost innovativeemissions technologies
in heavy industry
demonstrated at scale

IEA’s Net Zero by2050-Gt CO2

Electric cars are
60% of sales

3530
2520

Buildings

No new sales offossil fuel boilers

All new buildings arezero-carbon ready
Universal energy accessof and cooling
All appliances
All industrialsales
electricmotors are best in class
No new ICE car sales
Electric heavy trucks
are 50% of sales
Most appliances and coolingsystems are best in class

Almost 90% of existing
capacity in heavy industries
reaches end of theirinvestment cycle

More than 90% of heavy
industry production is
low emissions

50% of fuels used inaviation are sustainable
Half of existing buildings
retrofitted to zero-carbon
ready levels

Half of heating demand
met by heat pumps

More than 85% ofbuildings arezero-carbon readyTransport
Industry

15105ElectricityOther2020

2025

No new unabated coal plants
approved for development

No new oil and gas fields
approved for development,
and no new coal mines ormine extensions

2030

2035

2040

1 020 GW annual solar andwind additions

Overall net zero electricity
in advanced economies

Net zero electricity
sector globallyPhase-out of unabated coalin advanced economies

2045

Phase-out of all unabatedcoal and oil power plants
4 Gt CO2 captured

150 Mt low-carbon hydrogen;
850 GW electrolysers

2050
Almost 70% of electricity
generation globally fromsolar PV and wind
7.6 Gt CO2 captured

435 Mt low-carbon hydrogen;3 000 GW electrolysers

Net Zero by 2050 sets near-term milestones to get on track for long-term targets. (Back-casting)

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

3Page 3

Winners and Losers
Country

Short termLong Term

Russia- - Lost EU market, less revenue, more

- - Loss of tech, investment, brain drain

war expenses
EU- Gas Shortage & high price. Risk ofcomplacency.

++ RE Power EU and CBAM
H2 pipeline

US+Shale gas boom, +IRA invites
investment++ IRA for CCS,EV,H2, Megatech to leadRE100

China
India+ Cheap Russian gas & oil++ RE super power, - risk of supplychain + H2 super power

Saudi Arabia++ High Oil price, ? OPEC+ vs US? Blue H2 CCS, Green H2 solar, Mid
East Geopolitics

Japan/ Korea- High gas price. Russian retaliation?

? Sustainable nuclear, Clean H2 supply
chain

ASEAN

- High gas price? H2 supply chain, regional grid, JCM

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

4Page 4

Hydrogen by MCH/LOHC may replace SPR in the Net Zero Scenario
Value of international energy-related resource trade
20192050: Announced Pledges Scenario

USD 1.5 Trillion

USD 1.5 Trillion
Naturalgas(14%)

Oil(66%)

Coal(9%)Criticalminerals(11%)

USD 0.9 Trillion
Criticalminerals(18%)

Oil(58%)2050: Net Zero Scenario

Hydrogen (7%)

Criticalminerals(47%)

Hydrogen(35%)

Oil(11%)Naturalgas (5%)
Coal(2%)Natural gas Coal(5%)(12%)
WEO2021In all scenarios, but especially in the net zero pathway, critical minerals and hydrogen-based
fuels are on the rise
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

5Page 5

World Energy Outlook 2023
24 October 2023

Page 6Fifty years on from the first oil shock
Total energy supply(EJ)
750
100%

OtherWEO2023

Oil demand(mb/d)
100
100%

Electricity generation(thousand TWh)30
100%

Renewables

Nuclear

80%
600

Natural
gas

60%
450

Coal

40%
300

Emerging
marketanddeveloping
economies

80%
80
60
60%

Nuclear

1860%
Natural
gas

40
40%

1240%
Advanced
economies

20%
2020%
150

Renewables

80%
2420%
6

Coal

OilOil

1973

Today

1973

Today

1973

Today

The world still faces acute energy security vulnerabilities,
but also has more tools than ever to change the outlook for global energyIEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 7

Major structural shifts reshape the new Outlook
Electric car sales(Million units)

Solar PV capacity additions(GW)

WEO2023
China economic growth

40

6008%

30

4506%

20300

4%

101502%

2015

2023

2030
StatedPolicies

2015

2023 2030
StatedPolicies

2015

2023

2030

The huge surge of clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles and solar PV, combined with a rebalancing in
China’s economy towards a cleaner development model, change the trajectory for the global energy system
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 8

On track for a peak in all fossil fuels before 2030

WEO2023

Fossil fuel demand in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Coal (Mtce)
6 000

Oil (mb/d)Natural gas (bcm)

100

4 500
World
Other emerging marketand developing economies

3 000

2 250

50
Advanced economies

China
2000

2022

2050

2000

2022

2050

2000

2022

2050

For the first time, today’s policy settings are strong enough to generate peaks for coal, oil and natural gas
this decade; the share of fossil fuels starts to edge downwards from 80% today to 73% in 2030
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 9A solar boom could accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels
Natural gas use in power (bcm)

Solar PV (GW)

Coal use in power (Mtce)

1 600

4 000

1 200

3 000

600

800

2 000

300

400

1 000

1 200900

Higher solar
uptake2015 2022

2030

Solar manufacturing capacity

2022

2030 2030
STEPS Higher
solar

WEO20232022

2030 2030
STEPS Highersolar

Solar PV additions in STEPS

Ample global manufacturing offers considerable upside for solar.
Effectively integrated, this would further cut natural gas and coal use, making the declines steeper.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 10

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 11

IEA WEO vs IEEJ Outlook：GDP growth assumptions
IEA

IEEJ

GDP Growth Assumptions
Region2021/2030

2030/2050

2021/2050

North America

1.9

1.9

1.9

Central South America

2.5

2.8

2.7

Europe

1.8

1.4

1.5

Africa

4.1

4.7

4.5

Middle East

3.3

2.7

2.9

Eurasia

1.8

2.2

2.1

China

3.9

3.5

3.6

India

6.2

5.4

5.6

Japan

0.8

0.8

0.8

ASEAN

4.7

44.2

World

2.7

2.7

2.6

IEA’s assumption is lower in Emerging Economies relative to IEEJ
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 12

The Oil and Gas Industry in Net ZeroTransitions/ WEO Special Edition

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 13

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 14

New dynamics for energy investment

WEO2023

Annual spending in fossil fuels and clean energy
Past

FutureTrillion USD (2022)
4.0
3.0
2.0

Fossil fuels

Clean energy

2030

2030

Clean energy

1.5

Pre-Paris

1.0
Fossil fuels

STEPS

0.5

2015

2020

2023

Fossil fuel investment today is in line with levels needed in the STEPS.
Today, every dollar spent on fossil fuels sees USD 1.8 spent on clean energy. This rises to USD 10 in 2030 in the NZE.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 15

New dynamics for energy investment

WEO2023

Annual spending in fossil fuels and clean energy
Past

FutureFossil fuels

Trillion USD (2022)

Clean energy
NZE

4.0

3.0
STEPS

Clean energy

2.0

1.0
Fossil fuels
2015

2020

2023

2030

2030

Fossil fuel investment today is in line with levels needed in the STEPS.
Today, every dollar spent on fossil fuels sees USD 1.8 spent on clean energy. This rises to USD 10 in 2030 in the NZE.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 16

Today’s choices will determine future warming

WEO2023

Change in global average surface temperature from pre-industrial levels (°C)
3Stated Policies Scenario

2023

1.5

Net Zero Emissions
by 2050 Scenario

01850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

Emissions are set to peak by 2025 under today’s policy settings, but temperatures would continue to rise;
reducing CO2 provenemissionspolicies
to netandzerotechnologies
by 2050 wouldaresee
availabletemperatures
to keep peakthe doorandto
return
1.5 °Cbelow
open1.5 °C by 2100
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Historical temperature data from HadCRUT.5.0.1.0

Page 17Five pillars to keep 1.5 °C alive
Installedrenewables (GW)
12 0003xEnergy intensity
improvement

WEO2023
Fossil fueldemand (EJ)
500

5%Fossil fuelmethane (Mt)
125

Clean energy investment
in EMDE* (Tn USD)
2.5
3x9 600

4%

7 200

3%

4 800

2%

2x400

100

2.030075

1.520050

1.0-25%

-75%
2 400

100

1%

2022 2030

2022 2030

252022 2030

0.52022 2030

2022 2030

A comprehensive energy package for COP28 needs to drive the growth in clean energy,
support emerging and developing economies in the transition, and recognise the need to reduce fossil fuel demand
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

* EMDE = emerging market and developing economies

Page 18

The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions

23 November 2023

Page 19

A moment of truth is coming for the oil and gas industry. Will the oiland gas industry be part of the solution?
• The industry's engagement with clean energy
transitions will be a key topic at COP28.
• Most oil and gas companies are watching energy
transitions from the sidelines. Oil and gas
producers account for only 1% of total clean energy
investment globally.
• The first-order task is to slash emissions fromcompany operations. Commit to reduce 60% of
CO2 emission by 2030.

some crucial technologies for net zero transitions… but this requires a step-change in the industry's
allocation of investment . Commit to increase
investment for clean technology from 2.5% of total
capital expenditure now to 50% by 2030.
• CCUS is very important but it is pure fantasy tocompensate everything.

• Transitions will hurt the bottom line for companies
focused on oil and gas. Oil and gas investment isneeded in all scenarios, but the demand trajectory
in a 1.5 °C world leaves no room for new fields.
• The oil and gas industry is well placed to scale up
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 20

Where does the money go?
Revenue from oil and gas sales in 2022

Operating costs
Upstream
investment

Taxes

Returns to shareholders
and debt payments

Midstream
investment

Clean energy investment
Oil and gas companies have generated around USD 3.5 trillion each year on average in recent years.
The largest share goes to governments: only a tiny proportion goes directly to the clean energy economy
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 21

The oil and gas industry invests in a range of clean energies
Investment in clean energy by oil and gas firms(Billion USD)

Global investment in clean energy

20

Bioenergy

15

10Offshore wind

Oil and gas
industry
investment= 1%

Solar PV andonshore wind

5

CCUS and hydrogen
2019

2020

2021

2022

Oil and gas company investments in clean energy technologies is on the rise, reaching one third of all investment in
CCUS and bioenergy, but represent just 1% of clean energy investment in 2022
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 22

Clean energy solutions requiring oil & gas skills grow in importance
Global final energy consumption in 2022 and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
Biofuels and biomethane

500
Heat
400

Carbon capture,utilisation andstorage andhydrogenElectricity

300
2050
200
Fuels
100
Offshore windand geothermal

02022

2050

A wide range of technologies are required to get the world to net zero emissions; electricity cannot do it all.
Sectors with a close affinity to oil and gas company expertise make up 30% of a net zero emissions energy system
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 23

Nuclear energy could play an important role inensuring rapid and secure energy transitions.

2022-6-30

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruptions in global energy
supply have made governments rethink their energy security
strategies, targeting diverse and domestic supplies
Governments in over 70 countries have committed toachieving net zero emissions, covering three-quarters ofglobal emissions and economic activityPeaking CO2 emissions this decade and starting a long-term
decline is essential to keep the door open to limiting climatechange to 1.5 °C
The policy landscape is changing, opening up opportunities
for nuclear to make a comeback“NuclearPower and Secure Energy
Transition” by IEA 2022-6-30
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

24
Page 24

Nuclear capacity doubles to 2050 on the path to Net ZeroWorld nuclear power capacity in the NZE
1 000
GW

Other emerging
market and developing
economies

800

China

600

Other advanced
economies

400

G7 members

20002000

2010

20202030

2040

2050

To complement renewables in the NZE, the nuclear industry must deliver new projects on time and onbudget, with projects in advanced economies needing to cut costs by almost half from ongoing projects.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

“NuclearPower and Secure EnergyTransition” by IEA 2022-6-30

Page 25

25

US, UK Lead Pledge to Triple Nuclear Power by 2050 at COP28• The US will lead a push at the COP28
climate summit to triple the amountof installed nuclear power capacity
globally by 2050.
• The declaration will call on
the World Bank and otherinternational financial institutions toinclude nuclear energy in theirlending policies• The US will be joined by the UK,France, Sweden, Finland and South
Korea in the pledge to besigned Dec. 1 in Dubai
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 26

Large Light Water Reactor (LWR) Paradigm is a “SuccessfulFailure” (Vaclav Smil)27
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 27

Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF) 2022 Nuclear Session
Agreed on Four conditions for“Sustainable” Nuclear Power.
(1) SMR with passive safety(2) Radioactive Waste
Disposal(3) Proliferation Resistance(4) Socio-Political
Sustainability
Ambassador Emanuel of theUS joined as a keynote
speaker.
He stressed importance of USJapan cooperation on nuclear.
I told him IFR of Argonne
National Lab is the sustainable
nuclear model and should beapplied to the Fukushimameltdown fuel debris solution.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

28
Page 28

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 2929

Why does CIGS setup Only
Women Working Group for
Advanced Nuclear system?
Nuclear Community is very male-dominant.
Unfortunately most of these men are noteager to transform the current system withvested-interest orientation.
Women as outsiders can change thesystem which then may be acceptable forgeneral public in japan. Women havemuch more strong sense of safety andsecurity than men. If the President ofTEPCO were a woman, she could haveavoided the Fukushima Accident in 2011.

日刊工業新聞 2022-10-31

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 3030

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

31

Page 31

Socio-Politically Sustainable Nuclear Models?

ARC 1000
Terra Power’s Natrium

Integral Fast Reactor

OKLO’s Aurora reactor
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Dow Chemicaland X-energy

GE-Hitachi’s
PRISM

Akademik Lomonosov
Rolls-Royce UK SMR32
Page 32

Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) for Fukushima Debris Processingü The concept of an integral fast reactor (IFR)
consists of reprocessing the fuel debris,
fabricating TRU fuel, burning it in a small
MF-SFR and recycling the spent fuel byreprocessing
ü Amount of heavy metals (HM), such asuranium, present in fuel debris: Approx.
250tons and TRU elements account forapproximately 1.9tons.
ü Configuration• A MF-SFR with inherent safety features(reactor output: 190MWt)• Application of a metallic fuel pyroprocessing method that makes debris
processing possible.

Concept diagram of an IFR that combines a fast reactor with a fuelrecycling facility(Example: Argonne National Laboratory Experimental Breeder
Reactor EBR-II and fuel cycle facility (FCF))(Source：Y. I. Chang, “Integral fast reactor – a next-generation reactor concept,” in Panel on futureof nuclear Great Lakes symposium on smart grid and the new energy economy, Sept. 24-26, 2012.)

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

33

Page 33

METI’s Review of Advanced Reactors

Advanced LWR

SmallLWR
FastReactor

Nonenergy
Sector

Waste
DisposalPu
EconomyLoadFollow

H2Supply
ChainEcono
myRegulationMaturity

CIGS’s Sustainability check

Safety& risk

Waste
Disposalproliferati
on

X

X

X

○X

X

Marine use、metallicfuel◎◎◎Metallic fuel &Pyroprocessing

HT GasReactor◎X

X

FusionReactor◎◎◎

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

34

Page 34

Nuclear Fusion at ICEF35
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 35

Fusion may be at the Inflection Point. (Scott HSU)

36
Figure credit: Sam Wurzel, DOE
ARPA-EENI & Commonwealth Fusion

37
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 37

Helical Fusion Co.

38
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 38

Clean Planet: Solid state Fusion

39
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 39