Integrated Assessment
Modelling Activities in India in
2014-15
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
Shivika Mittal
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba, Japan
Presented in
The 20th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, JapanJan 23-24, 2015

Overview of Activities (2014-15)
1. Research and Dissemination••

Modelling exercises

National Level

Sub-National Level

City Level

LIMITS project

LOW CLIMATE IMPACT SCENARIOS AND THE IMPLICATIONSOF REQUIRED TIGHT EMISSION CONTROL STRATEGIES••LCS-RNet and LOCAR-Net: Linking Research & International Policymaking

2. Year 2015-16: Way Forward•

Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)•Modelling and informing low emission strategies (MILES)GLOBAL LEVELPolicy and Science Nexus:
Where, Who and When?

SpaceTime

GlobalLong-term

National

Medium-term

Local

Short-term

NATIONAL LEVELShukla, P. R, Garg, A., & Dholakia, H.H. (2014). Energy-Emissions Trends and Policy Landscape for India. Allied Publishers

Energy Policy Paper

Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Cobenefits analysis
Dhar S. and Shukla P.R.

Accepted and available on the Energy Policy Website

Dhar, S., & Shukla, P. R. (2014). Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis.
Energy Policy. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.026

Scenario Architecture Transport: NationalBase (BAU)
GDP – 8% CAGR
CO2 – 3.6 deg C

Changes due toprice of carbon

Sustainable Low
Carbon Transport
Scenario

Conventional Low
Carbon Scenario
GDP ~ 8% CAGR

GDP - Pegged to 8% CAGR

CO2 – 2OC Stabilization

Sustainable Mobility
i. Public Transport
ii. NMTiii. Urban Design
iv. High speed rail

Passenger

Changes due to targeted
strategies e.g., linked tomission on sustainable
habitats + a carbon
budget equivalent toconventional scenario

CO2 – 2OC Stabilization

SustainableTechnologies
i. Electric Vehicle'sii. Fuel Economy
iii. ICT - Navigation

Sustainable Fuels
i. Bio-fuels
ii. CNGiii. Clean Electricity

Passenger & Freight

Sustainable Logistics
i. Dedicated Rail Co.
ii. Coal by wireiii. Regional Pipelines

Freight

Soft-Linked Integrated Model
Soft-Linked Integrated Model System (SLIM)DATABASESDATABASES
Socio --Economic,
Technologies,
EnergyResources,
EnvironmentalConstrai
Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy
Resources,
Environment

nts

Transport Model
Transport Demand Model

Transport Database

Sustainable Transport Indicators
Database

AIM SNAPSHOTModel
AIM ExSS

AIM Strategic Database(SDB)

ANSWER- MARKALANSWER-MARKAL
ModelModel

Scenario Database

DemandEnd-Use
End
DemandUse DemandEnd Use
Model
Model
Model

AIM
CGE/GCAM-IIM
AIM
CGE Model

Energy Mix for Transport

CO2 Emissions from Transport Sector

Low carbon urban transport scenarios for China andIndia: A Comparative Assessment
Submitted to Journal Transport Research D:
Transport and Environment
Under Review

Demographic Transitions

CO2 Emissions

SUB-NATIONAL LEVELDemographics Transitions
GDP per capita

Population

1800000

900000800000

1400000

7000001200000

6000001000000

500000Rs*

1600000

800000400000600000300000400000200000200000100000

02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

*2004-05 constant prices

Air Quality Co-benefits
India

700

Punjab + Haryana + Chandigarh

MtCO2

400
300

30

30

20

20

200

2010

2020

2030

2040

2010

2050

2020

2030

2040

2010

2050

base
LCS

0.30

base
LCS

0.03

MtPM

0.25
0.20
0.15

2030

2040

2050

2030

2040

2050

2040

2050

base

0.02

0.02

MtPM

0.35

2020

0.03

0.03

0.40

0.02

LCS
0.02

0.01
0.01

0.10

0.01

0.01

0.05
0.00
2010

2020

2030

2040

0.50

7base
LCS

6

2010

432020

2030

2040

2050

2010

0.30

0.30
0.20

2020

base
LCS

0.35

20.25
0.20
0.15
0.10

0.10

10.40

base
LCS

0.40

MtNOx

50.00

0.00

2050

MtNOX

MtPM

000

MtNOX

10

10100

base
LCS

40

LCS

40

500

Bihar + Jharkhand

50

base

50

base
LCS

600

MtCO260

MtCO2

800

0.05

00.00
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0.00
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2010

2020

2030

CITY LEVELMainstreaming low carbon transport in urban
development planning
Submitted to Journal Transport Research D:
Transport and Environment
Under Review

Ahmedabad City

2015

2025

2035

Population (millions)

6.3

8.5

11.5

GDP (billion INR)

305

1274

3957

GDP per capita (‘000 INR)

55

149

361

ExSS framework
Ratio of labour participation
Demographic composition
Household size

Government spending
ExportImport ratio
Labour productivity

Labour component

Labourdemand

Work time
Consumption

Break up ofconsumption

Macro-economy
and industry

population

Commercial buildings
component

Commercial
Floor area
outputEnergy demand
Energy efficiency
Energy service demand
generation
Fuel mix
Emission factors

IncomeTransport
component

Passenger&freight transportdemandPopulation andhouseholds

Population
Per capita trip rate
Average trip distanceMode shares

Energy and GHG
emissionsComponent

Number ofhouseholds

endogenousGHG
emissions

Exogenous inputs
Flow of exogenous inputs

Adapted from Gomi
et al., (2010)

Mitigation Potential in 2035
4.5

Shift to public
transport

4

decarbonization ofelectricity

Million Tons

3.5
3

Penetration of Electric
Vehicles2.5

Penetration of Biofuel
Energy Effiency

21.5

Reduction in service
demand1

Sustainable behaviour

0.5

CO2 emissions
0BAULCS

Year 2015-16: Way ForwardResearch Plan 2015-16
1. India national and subnational Low Carbon Scenarios and Plans toalign with Global Stabilization Target
2. State-level Low Carbon Scenarios in India•

GHGs (including Short-lived GHGs)•

State-level Low Carbon Roadmap

3. Integrated and Down-scaled Model Development

4. Participation in International Projects•

MILES Project•

Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

5. Participation in UNEP Low Carbon Transport in India Porject
6. Publish reports/papers/documents to support India’s INDCs
7. Capacity Building and Dissemination

Deep Decarbonization Pathways ProjectScenarios Framework
DDP Scenarios

Sustainable(Development & Climate)

Conventional(Climate Centric)

SE4ALL Targets

Market Eff. (Competition)

Co-operation

Global Carbon Price (2 deg C)

Social Cost of Carbon

Indicators for Scenario Analysis

Economic
Energy Intensity
Energy Security

Environmental
Share of Renewable

SocialAir Quality (SO2, PM10

Energy Access

LCS Scenarios with Sustainability• Focus on:– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes– Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

Co-benefits and Social Cost of Carbon
Focus on Co-benefits & Lock-ins

Social Value of Carbon
200•Many hard and soft planning options

are not yet exhausted•Right choices can generate huge

•Similarly, wrong choices would result incostly “lock-ins”

Price (US $/tCO2)

benefits of development andenvironment in the long-run

150

LIMITS6 - CLE
100

LIMITS6- SLE

50•Window of opportunity of 10 to 20 years

exists to align policies and strategies forenergy, climate change and sustainable
development

02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Key Sectors and Strategies
Sustainable Habitats

Sustainable Production

Sectors

Strategy

Sectors

Strategy

Building

Affordable housing + Building
Codes, Materials

Steel

Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Energy
saving Cert., Recycle

Transport

Avoid, Shift, Improve, SwitchCementLighting

CFL /LEDs

Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Energy
saving Cert., Materials (Fly Ash)

Cooking

Access to clean fuels

Aluminium

Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Energy
saving Cert., Recycle

Cooling/HeatingLabelling, Building Codes

…

Waste

National Mission on Waste

Sustainable Electricity….

Sectors

StrategyRenewable

National Mission on Solar, Wind
TariffCoal

Clean Coal Technologies, Coal byWire….

Thank You