The 23rd AIM International Workshop
Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES
27-29 November 2017

GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenariosin Asia and World- Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Low Carbon Measures Tatsuya HANAOKA
Center for Social and Environmental Systems
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan0MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP
and seeking LLGHG emission pathways (FY2014 – FY2018)
Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, byinterconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event
analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change

・Development of emission inventory
・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation

Theme 2: Integrated modeland future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios
・National & regional emissions
scenarios
・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment

Improved emission inventory

Regional Emission
Inventories andChemical Transfer
ModelREAS
Inventory

・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG
・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenarios

Integrated SLCPs, Air pollutants Climate andEnvironment
Assessment
GHGs emissions
ModelModel (AIM)

Assessment of activities/policies

Chemical transfer model andemission inventory in Asia

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment

Feedback of impacts

AIM/Enduse model
Socio-economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model
Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
ScienceModel improvement
Experiment setup
Database development
Metric definitions

Stakeholders
Policy makers
System utilization
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET
Proposal and assessment of climate andair pollution policies

SocietyInformation transmission

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

Regionalstrategy⇅

Globalstrategy

1

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts ofSLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

Global emissions
scenarios on
Future scenarios
LLGHG・SLCP
Emissions scenarios
on LLGHG & SLCP

Information for
negotiation on
GHG reductions

Assessment ofEnv. & climate
policies in Asia
Green：Relation to other
Them
Orange：Relation to Env.
policies

National emissions
Scenarios on
LLGHG・SLCP

Global model
AIM/CGE

Global model
AIM/Enduse
Improvement of Enduse(Local activities &Pollution Management
Technologies)
National model
AIM/Enduse

Sub-theme (2)Household
Model
Local emissions
scenarios on
LLGHG・SLCP

Local Airpollution model

Assessment of actions& policies

Theme 1
Emission
inventory
Improved inventory

Theme3
Env. & Climate
Impacts

Future socioeconomic
scenarios

Sub-theme (1)Assessment of
mitigation costs &climate change impacts

Air pollution management
policies and events
at national/local scale

Env. & Climate
Impacts

Socio-economic scenario
considering climate & Env. Impact

Air pollution management
technologies

Theme 4
Synthesissystem

Env. & climate
Policy in JapanAIM models

Sub-theme (3)Future Scenarios
Research goals 2

Objectives
This study analyses appropriate balanced emissions pathwaysof GHGs, air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)
while taking GHG mitigation actions for achieving 2 ℃ target
1. estimation of technological mitigation potentials and costsof the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2,CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6
2. How large cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs and air pollutants
due to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
3. How large tradeoffs of increasing SLCPs and air pollutants
due to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
4. How large effects of air pollutant control measures inaddition to different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
5. How large effects of promoting electrification in transport
sector and building sector
3

SLCPs and Air Pollutants Reductions- Advantage and Disadvantage SO2
reduction
BC&PM2.5
reduction
NMVOC
reductionNOx
reduction

COreduction

Advantage

 Reducing health effects by decreasing sulfate (major component of PM2.5)

Dis-advantage

 Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing sulfate

Advantage

 Reducing health effects by reducing BC and PM2.5
 Reducing climate effects by reducing BCDis-advantage

 Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing OC due to biomass burning.

Advantage

 Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing climate effects.
 Reducing health effects by decreasing SOA (Secondary Organic Aerosol)(major component of PM2.5).

Dis-advantage

 Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing SOA

Advantage

 Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects.
 Reducing health effects by decreasing nitrate (major component of PM2.5)

Dis-advantage

 Increasing atmospheric CH4 concentration and thus warming effects
 Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing nitrateAdvantage

 Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects.
 Reducing atmospheric CH4 concentration by reducing NOx at the same time

Dis-advantage

 No disadvantage

If reducing only NOx, atmospheric CH4 concentration will increase.
But if reducing NOx and CO at the same time, atmospheric CH4concentration will not increase

Seeking for combination of NOx and CO reduction,
 Balancing SO2 and BC reduction
at the same time of decarbonization toward 2℃ 4

Scenario Settings- Seeking for balance of GHGs, SLCPs, air pollutantsScenario

Overview

Reference (=SSP2)

Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in the current trends

EoP Max

100 % end-of-pipe diffusion across the world by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10

EoP Mid

100% EoP diffusion in developed countries & 50% EoP diffusion in developing courtiers by2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10

2D-EoPmax-RES

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures /energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS

2D-EoPmid-RES

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS

2D-EoPmid-CCS

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS rather than renewables

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass
power with CCS / 100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger
transport sector across the world by 2050
Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT 100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger
5transport sector across the world by 2050

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6  There are various different combinations of decarbonization measures which can achieve
the similar CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2 degree target.

CO2 Emission (PgCO2)

8070605040

Global CO2 emission level achieving
2℃ is lower than the level in 1980s

30
20

Similar CO2 emissions pathways
under different combinations ofdecarbonization measures

10019801990200020102020203020402050
EDGER4.2

Ref

2D-EoPmax-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESTRTRCP 8.5
2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmid-RESTRTRCP 2.6
2D-EoPmid-CCS

HTAP

Equivalent to 2℃
decarbonization scenarios

2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

6Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -140700

1401206001201008060402010080604020050030020010015010050800
600
400
2000

EDGER4.2

Ref

2D-EoPmax-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESTRT76543210
1990200020102020203020402050

CH4 pathways are almost the same
(because major sources are
agriculture and waste sectors)
1990200020102020203020402050

BC Emission (TgBC)

CO Emission (TgCO)

2000

1990200020102020203020402050
1000

Almostsame

4000
1990200020102020203020402050

VOC Emission (TgVOC)

CH4 Emission (TgCH4)

160

NOx Emission (TgNOx)

SO2 Emission (TgSO2)

 Emissions pathways of SLCPs and air pollutants are different due to combinations of low-carbon
and end-of-pipe measures, even if CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2℃ are similar.

01990200020102020203020402050

RCP 8.5
2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmid-RESTRTRCP 2.6
2D-EoPmid-CCS

HTAP

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Equivalent to 2℃ decarbonization

2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

7

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6  100% electrification in building sector is effective for reducing BC, PM2.5 drastically and CO 100% EV in passenger transport is effective for reducing NMVOC largely and NOx
 Coal for power and industry plants with CCS has emission rebounds for SO2 and NOx
Ref

RCP 8.5

160140140120NOx Emission (TgNOx)

120
10080
6040200HTAP

2D-EoPmid-CCS
Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050
2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

100Effects of CCS coal power plant
rather than RES promotion

8060402D-EoPmid-RESEffects of 100% EV in passenger
transport sector, by 2050
2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

200

1990200020102020203020402050

1990200020102020203020402050

71000

CO Emission (TgCO)200

VOC Emission (TgVOC)

RCP 2.6150100500BC Emission (TgBC)

SO2 Emission (TgSO2)EDGER4.2

800
600
400
200

5432
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

60
1990200020102020203020402050

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

8Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6  After enhancing renewables, effects of diffusing End-of-Pipe measures are very limited
 Combinations of renewables with 100% electrification in building and transport sector haveeffective for drastically reducing BC, PM2.5 and largely reducing NMVOC and CO.
RefRCP 8.5

160140140120

NOx Emission (TgNOx)

120
100
8060
40
20
0

2D-EoPmid-RES
Effects of 100% EoP by 2050

HTAP

2D-EoPmax-RES
Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050
Effects of 100% EV in passenger
transport sector, by 2050
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT

10080604020

Effects of 100% EoP by 205001990200020102020203020402050

1990200020102020203020402050

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT1000

CO Emission (TgCO)200

VOC Emission (TgVOC)

RCP 2.6150
100
5007

BC Emission (TgBC)

SO2 Emission (TgSO2)EDGER4.2

800
600
400
200

5432101990200020102020203020402050

60
1990200020102020203020402050

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

9Diagnosis of Emissions Pathways Directions- reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions - Need to seek for balancing health benefits (e.g. reducing PM2.5, BC, SO2, NOx), climate benefits(e.g. reducing CO2, BC, CH4), and climate disadvantage (e.g. reducing OC, SO2, NOx, VOC).
1.5BC emission[value in 2010 = 1]CO2 emission[value in 2010 = 1]

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

VOC emission[value in 2010 = 1]

CO emission[value in 2010 = 1]

1.0
0.5
0.0

Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]

2D-EoPmax-RES

2D-EoPmid-RES

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT

2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

0.50.00.00.5
1.0
1.5
SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]
2.0

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]
2.0
1.5

1.0

2D-EoPmid-CCS

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]
2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

10

Emissions under decarbonization and air quality control- Example in India - Decarbonization measures provide SO2 emission abatement as a co-benefit.
 Decarbonization measures have a impact on BC reductions, but the amount of the BC reduction
is limited, because the increase of biomass is cheaper than electrification in building sector.
 Diffusion of drastic End-of-Pipe measures have large impacts on reducing SO2
5,000

CO2

20.0

BC

Co-benefitof Decarbonizationon Air quality

0.8

15.0

0.6

10.0

0.4

5.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

Co-benefitof Decarbonizationon Air quality,
but limited

3,000

Only Low carbon
actions
Both countermeasures

2050

2050

Transport

Industry

ScenarioCP-AP

ScenarioCP

ScenarioAP

ScenarioRF

Energy2010

ScenarioCP-APScenarioCP

ScenarioAP

ScenarioRF

2010

ScenarioCP-AP

Only Air qualitycontrols

ScenarioCP

Reference

ScenarioAP0

ScenarioRF

1,000

Other

Buildings

2,000

2010

Emission [Mton]

4,000

SO22050

Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation
Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research

11Mitigation Costs of decarbonization and air quality control- Example in India - the cost of diffusing air pollution control measures can be saved by introducing decarbonization
measures, which can be regarded as “cost co-benefits”.

2.0

3.5

1.5

2.5
2.0

1.0
1.5
1.0

0.5

0.61
0.38

0.5000.0

adopt only end-op-pipemeasures

Total costs[% of Cumulative GDP]

Cumulative cost (2010-2050)[Trillion USD]

3.0

3.0

3.0

0.0

Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
APCPCP-AP
Cost for Climate change mitigation
Cost for Air pollution control
Total Costs (% of Cumulative GDP)

Cost co-benefits for end-of-pipe
given by introducing low carbon
actions
adopt both of low carbon measuresand end-op-pipe measures

Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation
Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research12

Mitigation Costs of achieving INDC target- Example of residential sector in 31 provincial analysis in China  Emission profiles of CO2, BC, PM2.5 and SO2, and energy compositions of coal, biomass, gas, heatand electricity are largely different among urban / rural, depend on large / small provinces.
 Carbon prices in residential sector range from 44 – 58 US$/tCO2 for achieving the INDC target
Carbon price in residential sector to achieve INDC

Regional gas emissions

20000

CO2BCElectricity

Heat

20100

315

210

1500050

2040

153000

50

30

1000

10010205100060

20000

Shanghai-urban

Emission (Kt)2000

Beijing-rural

23
21500040

210000

15000

03000

2.5

120

0040

15

Shanghai-rural

0

2.0
2000

02020

2030

0.5

100.00

2010

1020

1.0

1000

2010

30

1.5

2020

2030

2010

Year836

SO2100000

Oil products

PM2.54REF
INDCGasBeijing-urban

FIX

Traditional biomass

5Emission (Mt-CO2)

30000

Coal

60% reduction604

65% reduction

529

438

02020

2030

20102020

2030

10203040 44

505860

70

8090

100

Carbon tax (US$)

Source) Xing R et al. (2017), Achieving China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Roleof the Residential Sector, Journal of Cleaner Production, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.114

13

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