Curriculum VitaeVictor C. ShihHo Miu Lam Chair Associate Professor
School of Global Policy and Strategy
University of California at San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0519
La Jolla, CA 92093-0519(206)940-6497
vcshih@ucsd.edu
Twitter: @vshih2
August, 2023
Education
1997-2003: Harvard University. Ph.D. in Government with a focus on comparative
political economy, Chinese politics, and international relations
1993-1997: The George Washington University. BA summa cum laude in East Asianstudies with a minor in economics
Employment
7/2023-: Director, 21st Century China Center, University of California at San Diego
1/2014- : Ho Miu Lam Chair associate professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy,
University of California at San Diego
9/2017- 6/2021 : faculty equity advisor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, Universityof California at San Diego
4/2012-1/2014: principal, global market strategy group, The Carlyle Group
6/2010-7/2012 : associate professor of political science, Northwestern University
9/2003-6/2010: assistant professor of political science, Northwestern University
1999-6/2003: teaching and head teaching fellow at Harvard University1

Monographs2022. Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi
Jinping. Cambridge University Press.
2020, eds., Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability. University of Michigan Press.
Ann arbor, MI.
2008 Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation. Cambridge University
Press
Refereed Publications
Chester, P. J., & Shih, V. (2023). Vaccine Nationalism: How China's State Media Misinform
about Western Vaccines and Highlight the Successes of Chinese Vaccines to Different
Audiences. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. https://doi.org/10.1215/0361687810910260
2022. “Revolution, State Building, and the Great Famine in China.” With Dong Zhang, andMingxing Liu. Political Research Quarterly, DOI: 10659129221120384.
2021. “Elite Cleavage and the Rise of Capitalism under Authoritarianism: A Tale of Two
Provinces in China.” with Luke Qi Zhang, Dong Zhang, and Mingxing Liu. Journal ofPolitics. 83 (3).
2018. “Locking in Fair Weather Friends: Assessing the Fate of Chinese Communist Elite
When Their Patrons Fall from Power.” with Jonghyuk Lee. Party Politics. (online:
https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068818801143)
2018. “The Fall of the Old Guards: Explaining Credible Decentralization in China” withDong Zhang, Mingxing Liu. Studies in Comparative and International Development.
(online:https://www.springerprofessional.de/the-fall-of-the-old-guards-explainingdecentralization-in-china/15796436)
2016. “Contentious Elites in China: New Evidence and Approaches” (introductory essayto a special issue) Journal of East Asian Studies. 16:1, pp. 1-15
2016 “The performance of various factional indicators” with Meyer, David and Lee,
Jonghyuk, Journal of East Asian Studies. 16: 1, pp. 43-60
2013. “Guerilla Capitalism: Revolutionary Legacy, Political Cleavage, and thePreservation of the Private Economy in Zhejiang” with Qi Zhang and Mingxing Liu.
Journal of East Asian Studies. 13: 379-407

22012. “Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central
Committee Members in China” with Chris Adolph and Mingxing Liu American Political
Science Review. 106(1): 166-183
2012. “The Domestic Politics of the International Dollar Standard: a Statistical Analysis
of Support for the Reserve Currency, 2000–2008” with David Steinberg. Canadian
Journal of Political Science. 45(4): 1-26
2012. “Interest Group Influence in Authoritarian States: The Political Determinants ofChinese Exchange Rate Policy,” with David Steinberg. Comparative Political Studies.
45(11): 1405-1434
2011. “’Goldilock’ Liberalization: the Uneven Path Toward Interest Rate Reform inChina.” Journal of East Asian Studies. (11): 435-464
2010. “Gauging the Elite Political Equilibrium in the CCP: a Quantitative Approach
Using Biographical Data,” with Wei Shan and Mingxing Liu. China Quarterly (201)2009. “Tools of Survival: Sovereign Wealth Funds in Singapore and China,” Geopolitics.
14(2): 328-344
2008. ""Nauseating" Displays of Loyalty: Monitoring the Factional Bargain throughIdeological Campaigns in China " Journal of Politics 70 (4):1177-92
2008. “Deficit Estimation and Welfare Effects after the 1994 Fiscal Reform in China:
Evidence from the County Level” with Pengfei Zhang, China and the World Economy
16(3): 23-39
2007. “Partial Reform Equilibrium, Chinese Style: Political Incentives and Reform
Stagnation in Chinese Financial Policies” Comparative Political Studies. 40 (10): 1238 –1262
2007. “Comparing the Performance of Chinese Banks: A Principal Component
Approach” with Mingxing Liu and Qi Zhang, China Economic Review. 18 (1):15-34
2004. "Dealing with Non-Performing Loans: Political Constraints and Financial Policiesin China." The China Quarterly 180 (-1):922-44
2004. “Development, the Second Time Around: The Political Logic of Developing
Western China,” Journal of East Asian Studies. 4 (3): 427-451
2004. “Factions Matter: Personal Networks and the Distribution of Bank Loans inChina,” Journal of Contemporary China. 13 (38): 3-19
2003. “Political Efficacy in Rural China: An Exploration of Villager Attitude Toward
Village Assemblies and Village Committees,” American Asian Review. 21(4): 401-424

3Book Chapters and Invited Pieces
2023. Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China. By
Lynette H. Ong. New York: Oxford University Press, 2022. 286p. 29.95 paper.
Perspectives on Politics, 21(2), 698-699.
2023. Response to Lynette H. Ong’s Review of Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics inChina from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi. Perspectives on Politics, 21(2), 701-702“Jiang Zemin Helped China Become a Global Powerhouse” Foreign Policy (Nov. 30,2022)
2022. “Beyond the 20th Party Congress: Elite Autonomy in the Politburo Standing
Committee Under Two Scenarios.” in Harris Doshay (eds.) The Party Remakes China:
What to Watch for After the 20th Party Congress. La Jolla, CA: 21st Century ChinaCenter.
2022. Age, Factions and Specialisation in the Path to the New Leadership at the 20th Party
Congress. In F. N. Pieke & B. Hofman (Eds.), CPC Futures: The New Era of Socialism withChinese Characteristics. National University of Singapore Press.
2022. “How China Would Like to Reshape International Economic Institutions.” In The
Bretton Woods 2.0 Project. Washington, DC: The Atlantic Council.
2022. “Who Gets into the Chinese Communist Party, and Who Rises up the Ranks?” inJennifer Rudolph & Michael Szonyi (eds.) The China Questions 2. Harvard UniversityPress.
2021. “China’s Leninist Response to Covid-19”. In Scott Greer, Elizabeth King, Elize
Massard da Fonseca & Andre Peralta-Santos (eds.) Coronavirus Politics. University ofMichigan Press.
2021. “Constructing a Chinese AI Global Supply Chain in the Shadow of “Great PowerCompetition.” in Etel Solingen (eds.). Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International
Relations in East Asia. Cambridge University Press.
2020. “Financial Liberalization in China: the Contradiction Between Opening andGuaranteed Outcomes. China Leadership Monitor. Winter.
2019. “Financial repression still: policy concerns and stagnation in China’s corporatebond market” in Avery Goldstein & Jacques DeLisle (eds.) To Get Rich Is Glorious:
Challenges Facing China’s Economic Reform and Opening at Forty. Washington DC:Brookings Institution Press.

42017. “Financial Instability in China: Possible Pathways and their Likelihood” inMERICS China Monitor. MERICS: Berlin.
2017. “1.3 billion People are in One Man’s Grip” with Jude Blanchette. Foreign Policy(October 16, 2017).
2017. How the party-state runs the economy: a model of elite decision-making in thefinancial market. In Willy Lam (eds.) Routledge Handbook of the Chinese Communist
Party. London: Routledge.
2016. “Efforts at exterminating factionalism under Xi Jinping: Will Xi Jinping dominate
Chinese politics after the 19th Party Congress?” in Heilmann, Sebastian & Stepan,Matthias (ed.) China’s Core Executive: Leadership styles, structures and processes underXi Jinping. Berlin: Mercator Institute for China Studies
2015. “Market Governance and Firm Performance under China’s State Capitalism” with
Fuller, Douglas B. & Rao, Ran. Management and Organization Review. 11: 4, pp. 711713
2015. “Research in Authoritarian Regimes: Tradeoffs and Solutions” Qualitative andMulti-Method Research. Vol 13: 1, pp. 20-22.
2013. “This time is different: the domestic financial impact of global rebalancing.” InTao Sun, Udaibir Das, & Jonathan Fiechter (ed.). China's Road to Greater Financial
Stability: Some Policy Perspectives. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund2011. “When are banks sold to foreigners? An examination of the politics of sellingbanks in Mexico, Korea, and China” in Scott Kennedy (eds.). Beyond the Middle
Kingdom: Comparative Perspectives on China’s Capitalist Transformation. Palo Alto,CA: Stanford University Press.
2010. “The central committee past and present: a method of quantifying elitebiographies” with Wei Shan and Mingxing Liu in Mary Gallagher, Allen Carlson,
Melanie Manion (eds). Sources and Methods of Chinese Studies. New York: Cambridge
University Press.
2010. “Local Government Debt.” China Economic Quarterly. June. 26-33.
2010. “China’s 8000 Credit Risks.” Wall Street Journal Asia. 2/9/2010
2009. “Why China isn’t ready to lead.” Wall Street Journal Asia. 10/22/2009.
2009. “China’s ‘legless’ stimulus.” Asian Wall Street Journal. 4/13/2009.
2008. “Chinese banks’ great leap backward.” Asian Wall Street Journal. 12/18/2008.

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2008. Book Review of The Party and the Arty in China: The New Politics of Culture. By
Richard C. Kraus. Journal of Asian Studies. 67(1): 279-281.
2008. “China’s Credit Boom.” Asian Wall Street Journal. 2/21/2008.
2007. “Who receives subsidies? A look at the county-level in two time periods” with Qi
Zhang in Vivienne Shue & Christine Wong (eds). Paying for Progress in China, London:
Routledge: 145-165.
2007. “Trapped in Transition, but not Spinning Out of Control: An Analysis of theChinese Banking Sector” (Working Paper) Foundation for Law, Justice, and Society,Oxford, UK.
2006. Book Review of The Business of Lobbying in China. By Scott Kennedy.
Perspectives on Politics. 4(3): 614-615
2006. Book Review of Remaking the Chinese Leviathan: Market Transition and thePolitics of Governance in China. By Dali Yang. Governance 19(1).
2006. “China’s NPL Market Revealed” with Louie Huang. China Business Review. 33(May-June): 30-35.
2005. “Banking: China's Uphill Battle for Stronger Banks” Far Eastern Economic
Review. 168 (November): 37-40.
2005. “Beijing’s Bailout of Joint-Stock and State-Owned Banks” China Brief. 5(18).
Works in Progress“Shocks, Skills, and Political Instability in Authoritarian Regimes: A TheoreticalAnalysis” with Pengfei, Zhang & Mingxing, Liu“Expectation of Power, Protective Umbrella, or Both: Investigating the Heterogeneous
Effect of Power on Provincial Investment in China” with Duy Trinh“Loyalty versus Institutional Norms in Authoritarian Promotions: Machine-learning
Approach”. With Jonghyuk Lee.
“How Bureaucratic Incentives Shape Repression in China”. With Erin Baggott Carter &Jonghyuk Lee.
“Compensation and the Consolidation of Authoritarian Power: Evidence from China’s
2016 PLA Reform” with Hans Tung & Keng-chi Chang.

6Services
University and departmental:
12/2021-2022 : search committee for 21st Century China Center Director
9/2017-: Member, equity, diversity, and inclusion committee of GPS

9/2018-: Member, the J. Yang Foundation Fellowship committee of UCSD

9/2017- 6/2021 : Faculty equity advisor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, Universityof California at San Diego-Recommend new measures to promote equity and diversity for the university
along with other divisional advisors and the associate provost for equity anddiversity-Raise awareness of and implement university equity and diversity policies in thedivision-Support faculty members with potential equity complaints-Organize activities promoting diversity in the division
2017- : Member of the admissions committee for the Masters in China Economy andPublic Administration (MCEPA) program
2015-2019: Attended alumni outreach gatherings in Washington DC, New York, andSeattle
2017, 2019: Participated in the 21st Century China Center fund raising trips in New Yorkand San Francisco
2019-2020: Application review committee for the University of California Presidential
Post-Doctoral Fellowship program
2/8/2019: Raised funding for and organized the conference “China’s Financial Opening:
Risks and Opportunities” attended by officials from the People’s Bank of China and theMinistry of Commerce
2017, 2018: Faculty equity advisor for cross divisional searches
2015, 2017: Faculty search committees
Peer Review Activities
2014-: Reviewer for tenure and full professor promotions
2004: Reviewer for Social Science Research Council dissertation fellowship applications.

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9/2003-present: Referee for American Political Science Review, American Economic
Review, Economics and Politics, Econometrica, American Journal of Political Science,
World Politics, Journal of Politics, Publius: Journal of Federalism, Comparative
Political Studies, Comparative Politics, Studies in Comparative and International
Development, China Quarterly, China Journal, China Review, Pacific Affairs, Issues andStudies, World Development, Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Asian Studies.
Teaching and Advising
1/2004-present: organized and taught graduate seminars on the political economy ofdevelopment, finance in China, political economy of authoritarian politics, Chinesepolitics, the financial system of China, a senior seminar on the politics of finance anddevelopment, and lecture courses on comparative politics and Chinese politics.
1/2004-present: Served as chair or co-chair on 14 dissertation committees, member on anadditional 9 dissertation committees
Presentations and Lectures (Past Ten Years)“How Chinese Analysts See America: A Sentiment Analysis of Their Writing on theU.S.
Associations for Asian Studies Annual Conference, Boston MA 3/18/2023
Stanford APARC Workshop, Palo Alto, CA 5/30/2023“Will China's financial sector remain forever state-dominated?”
PIIE “Financial Statements” Weekly Talks, Washington DC 5/23/2023“How Bureaucratic Incentives Shape Repression in China”
Chinese Politics Research Virtual Workshop, 5/12/2022
Stanford China Workshop, Palo Alto CA 2/22/2022
UCSD China Workshop, La Jolla CA 10/22/2021“Compensation and the Consolidation of Authoritarian Power: Evidence from China’s
2016 PLA Reform”
USC China Workshop, Los Angeles CA 4/24/2023
Conference on Political Elites in Comparative and Historical Perspective,
Columbia U, 11/3/2022“Coalitions of the Weak”
US Embassy in China Virtual Talk 11/6/2022
George Washington University Sigur Center lecture series, Washington DC
9/13/2022
SAIS China lecture series, Washington DC 9/12/2022
Princeton University Contemporary China series (virtual talk) 12/6/2021

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Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability
Oxford University China Center, Oxford, UK 2/7/2020
Mercator Institute of China Studies, Berlin 2/16/2020
WCED, University of Michigan 11/19/2019“The Strategic Dimension of Belt and Road: Assessing the Impact of Belt and Road on
Chinese Defense Firms’ External Footprints”
2020 APSA, 9/11/2020
Geoeconomic workshop, UCSD 3/11/2021“China’s policies of economic coercion”
Center for New American Security, Washington, DC 7/23/2019“China’s emerging deficit problem”
Mercator Institute of China Studies, Berlin 6/12/2019“Expectation of power, protective umbrella, or both: investigating the heterogeneous
effect of power on provincial investment in China”
Princeton University, 3/22/2021
Peking University, Beijing 6/4/2019
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 11/4/2018“Perspectives on the 70th Anniversary of the CCP: Is the Party Just Getting Started orComing to an End?”
10th Annual China Business Conference, American Chamber of Commerce,
Washington DC, 4/30/2019“After the 19th Party Congress: Where is Xi’s China Heading?”
CSIS, Washington DC, 10/20/2017
UCDC, Washington DC, 10/23/2017
SOAS, London, 11/14/2017
Washington State China Council, Seattle, 11/21/2017“Efforts at exterminating factionalism under Xi Jinping: Will Xi Jinping dominate
Chinese politics after the 19th Party Congress?”
Mercator Institute of China Studies, Berlin 6/25/2016“Are Factions Self-Enforcing Contracts: Identifying the Impact of Patrons’ Exit on theCareers of Clients” with Jonghyuk Lee
Georgetown University, Washington, DC 2/29/2016
Hong Kong University, 4/13/2016“Pathways to Stability and Instability in the Midst of Prolonged Slow-down: the Case ofChina” presentation at the “Authoritarian Rule under Economic Shocks” Workshop,UCSD, 12/5/2015

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“Shocks, Skills, and Political Instability in Authoritarian Regimes: A TheoreticalAnalysis” with Pengfei, Zhang & Mingxing, Liu
Fudan Conference on Political Economy, Fudan University, Shanghai 8/24/2018
Leitner political economy workshop, Yale University, New Haven 2/4/2017
Political Economy of China Conference, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 1/22/2016
Annual American Political Science Association Meeting, San Francisco, CA.
9/2/2015
China’s Political Economy: Theory and Evidence Workshop, San Diego, CA
10/6/2014“The performance of various factional indicators” with Meyer, David and Lee, Jonghyuk
Quantitative Studies of the Chinese Elite Conference, San Diego, CA 2/6/2015“Rejuvenating the Party Leadership as a Survival Strategy: Mainland China and Taiwan
in Comparative Perspective”
Annual American Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, IL. 8/29/2013.

Post-doctoral Awards, Honors, and Fellowships
2017: MERICS visiting fellowship2014-2016: Smith Richardson Foundation Grant
2012-2015: U.S. Army Research Office (ARO) grant #W911NF-12-1-0389 (Co-PI DavidMeyer)
2010: Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation Faculty Fellowship.
2009: Northwestern University Alumnae Gifts and Grants Fellowship, “Comparative
Investigation of Sovereign Wealth Funds,” 4/2009-12/2009.
2006-2007: Harvard CFIA Visiting Fellowship2005: Kellogg School Dispute Resolution Research Center Faculty Grant, “EthnicConflicts Under Leninist Authoritarianism,”1/2006-10/2006.
2004: Northwestern University Research Grant Committee Grant, “Measuring Factional
Loyalty in Authoritarian China,” 5/2005-1/2006.
2004: Northwestern University Farrell Fund for Teaching Support, “computer equipmentpurchase” 1/2004.
2003-2009: Northwestern University Junior Faculty Support Fund

10Skills
Languages: Fluent Mandarin Chinese, Cantonese Chinese, and elementary level ofFrench.
Quantitative Methods: linear and non-linear modeling, dealing with heteroskedasticity
and panel and time-series data, and simulations of predicted outcomes.
Computer skills: programming in Stata, Gauss, and SPSS, as well as operational
knowledge of all standard software.

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