● Research Trends and Results

Development of Transportation Route Analysis Tool forContainer Cargoes Using the Sacrifice ModelPort Systems Division, Port and Harbor Department
IYAMA Shigeru, Senior Research Officer
WATANABE Tomohiro, Head of Division(Keywords) Container cargo, transportation route, sacrifice model
the time value distribution so that cargo operators
could select a route consistent with actual cargotransportation data that can be ascertained from theContainer Cargo Movement Survey (2008, MLIT).
Figure 2 shows the result of a simulation ofcargoes handled by different ports based on theestimated time value distribution. Although there issome discrepancy (for example, the simulation for
Ise Bay is smaller than the actual value while that for
Hanshin Port is larger), the trends in volumes
handled are generally well reproduced, including
other ports with smaller cargo handling volumes.

Actualvalue

tons/month

1. Introduction
When implementing effective measures andefficiently developing ports and harbors in future, itwill be vital to conduct quantitative verification andanalysis based on various environmental changes
surrounding international maritime container
distribution both in Japan and abroad (such as therapid economic growth mainly in Asian countries
and the designation of international strategic ports).
This paper summarizes the construction of amodel that will make it possible to analyze changes
in routes of international maritime container
distribution, and associated changes in transportation
cost, based on changes in the distribution
environment between Japan and principal regions.
2. Outline of the developed model
The model was constructed using the sacrificemodel, whereby cargo transportation time isconverted to a cash equivalent and the route with thesmallest sacrifice volume consisting of the twoelements of “time cost” and “transportation cost”(Eq.(1)) is selected.
Sr  Cr  Tr   ............................................. (1)Simulatedvalue

α12=(C2-C1)/(T1-T2)
α23=(C3-C2)/(T2-T3)

C2
C1
α12
P1
Probability
確率密度Ｐ
density P

P2

α23

Timevalue α
時間価値α
Time
value distribution
時間価値の分布曲線

P３ curve

Appended
numbers 1,2,3…:※添え字１，２，３・・・：ルートRouteFigure 1. Result of time value estimation(Asian cargoes)
The three straight lines in Fig. 1 show the sacrifice
volume for each route expressed in Eq. (1). Theseshow that, when a cargo’s time value changes, theroute with the minimum sacrifice volume alsochanges. When constructing the model, we estimated

NahaShibushi

Shimizu

Hiroshima

IbarakiNiigata

Tomakomai

Sendai Shiogama

S3=C3+αT3

C3

Hanshin

S2=C2+αT2

Northern Kyushu

S1=C1+αT1

KeihinTotal sacrifice
総犠牲量Ｓ
volume S

Ise Bay

Sr: total sacrifice volume, Cr: cost, α: time value, Tr: time

Figure 2. Model simulation values for cargo handlingvolumes in principal ports
3. Use of the developed model in the Basic Policy
on Ports and Harbors
This model was used when estimating container
cargo volumes for principal ports in the Sept. 2011change to the Basic Policy on Ports & Harbors(Notification of the Minister of Land, Infrastructureand Transport), based on the forecast of total cargoes
handled by Japanese ports under the import andexport cargo estimation model.
[Reference]
NILIM Technical Note No. 589, 2010