ICES 2018
2nd International Conference
on Economic Structures

by Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

28-29 March, 2018
Nagoya University, Japan(Address: Nagoya University, Furo, Chikusa, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan).
 Chair of the Local Organizing Committee: J. NEMOTO and A. NOGUCHI, Nagoya University
 Chair of the Scientific Program Committee: K. FUJIKAWA (Vise-President of PAPAIOS), NU
 Contact: ICES_PAPAIOS@yahoo.co.jp
 Web site: http://www.gakkai.ne.jp/papaios/en/index.html
 Organized by the Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS) Co-organized by School of Economics, Nagoya University (SOEC-NU) and Applied Social System
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Institute of Asia (AS IA), Nagoya University

Venue B
2nd Lecture Room

Productivity 1

Venue C
3rd Lecture Room

Korea KESRAKIET

Venue D
1st Meeting RoomThe 2nd International Conference on Economic Structuresat Graduate School of Economics and Applied Social System Institute, Nagoya University
March 28, 2018
Venue A
1st Lecture Room

Int'l Economy 1

10:00-12:00

Environment 1

1st Session

Meiji University

Environment 2

Productivity 2

13:00-15:00

SNA, IO Analysis 1

Nagoya Univ. 2

Nagoya Univ. 1

India E3 Model

Venue D
1st Meeting Room

Int'l Economy 2

2nd Session
Environment 3

Tutorial Seminar
Waste I-O analysis
CGE model

SNA, IO Analysis 2

Venue C
3rd Lecture RoomChina CIOA

15:30-17:30

10:00-12:00

Regional I-O

Venue B
2nd Lecture Room

Ritsumeikan Univ.

3rd Session

Social Gathering
18:00-20:00
2nd Floor, Asian Legal Exchange Plaza

4th Session

13:00-15:00

March 29, 2018

5th Session

15:30-17:30

Venue A
1st Lecture Room

6th Session

1

2018-04-02

Venue A

Venue A, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Environment, Resource and Energy
Chair: Yasushi KONDO (Waseda University)
1. Does Democracies Affect the Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions? An Empirical
Analysis in America
Lichen CHOU (Wenzhou Business College)
Hsingchun LIN (National Chiayi University)
Fuming YANG (Wenzhou Business College)
Wanhao CHANG (Wenzhou Business College)
2. An International Comparison of the Effectiveness of Price Control under Energy Price Shocks
Shihmo LIN (Chung Yuan Christian University)
Shianghung SHEN (Chung Yuan Christian University)
Jinxu LIN (Chung yuan Christian University)
Kueifeng CHANG (Chung Yuan Christian University)
3. A note on the relationship between the waste input-output linear programming (WIO-LP)
model and the rectangular choice-of-technology (RCOT) model
Yasushi KONDO (Waseda University)

Venue A, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Environment, Resource and Energy
Chair: Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)
1. FTA and Structural Change in Environmental Load in the East Asian Region
Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University)
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
2. Scenario Input-Output Analysis on the New Hydrogen Supply System and Diffusion of
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
Yoshito UMEDA (Toho Cryogenics Co., Ltd.)

Venue A, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Environment, Resource and Energy
Chair: Makiko TSUKUI (Tokyo International University)
1. Economic and environmental impact by the choice of power sources in China: anapplication of scenario input-output analysis
Jiayang WANG (The University of Tokyo)
2. Resilient Partnership under Mega Disaster
Michael HUANG (GRIPS)

2018-04-022

Venue A

Social Gathering
Wednesday, March 28, 18:00-20:00
2nd Floor, Asian Legal Exchange Plaza

Venue A, 4th session (Open to the public)Thursday, March 29, 10:00-12:00
Tutorial Seminar
Input-Output Analysis of Waste Management and Material Cycles
Lecturer: Yasushi KONDO (Professor of Econometrics at Faculty of Political Science andEconomics, Waseda University)
Contents: Resource productivity and circular economy have recently received muchattention, and thus there is growing demand for analysis of the environment and economy
in a unified framework. This lecture introduces the basics of waste input-output (WIO) and
its applications to footprint analysis and material flow analysis.

Venue A, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Regional Input-Output Analysis
Chair: Yoshifumi ISHIKAWA (Nanzan University)
1. Measuring Inclusivity and Marginality: Estimating Philippine Regional Input- Output Tables
Using a Non- Survey Approach
Josephine TEVES (Kyoto University)
2. Examining the Revolutionary Donation Tax in the Context of the Philippine Interregional
Input Output Table
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
Paolo Nicholas Cortes PADERANGA (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)
Josephine TEVES (Kyoto University)
Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI (Kyoto University)
3. RAS structural decomposition analysis on the rural labor movement in Guizhou, China
Shuning CHEN (Anshun University)
Masaru KAGATSUME (Kyoto University)

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Venue B

Venue B, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
International Economy and International Development 1
Chair: Tetsu KAWAKAMI (Kinki University)
1. Dynamics of Spatial Poverty and Disparity: Evidence from Vietnam, 1993-2014
Takahiro YAMADA (Keio University)
2. A Quantitative Analysis of Global Value Chains
Haoliang ZHU (Doshisha University)

Venue B, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
International Economy and International Development 2
Chair: Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)
1. Climate Change, Yield Variation and the Volatility of International Price of Rice
Katsuhiro SAITO (The University of Tokyo)
Hideyasu SATO (The University of Tokyo)
Konomi SAITO (Soka University)
2. Economic Assessment of Global Value Chains: Case of China and India
Kakali MUKHOPADHYAY (Gokhale Institute of Politics & Science and McGill University)
Cuihong YANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
3. Global and Regional Shock Transmission
Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)

Social Gathering
Wednesday, March 28, 18:00-20:00
2nd Floor, Asian Legal Exchange Plaza2018-04-02

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Venue B

Venue B, 5th session, 13:00-15:00
Thursday, March 29
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Chair: Ken ITAKURA (Nagoya City University)
1. Assessing the Economy-Wide Effects of Public Procurement for Innovation Based on A
CGE Analysis: A Case of Korean Electric Vehicle Sector
Yeongjun YEO (Seoul National University)
Kiyoon SHIN (Seoul National University)
2. China in 2025: Implications for Africa
Christian OTCHIA (Kwansei Gakuin University)

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Venue C

Venue C, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Productivity 1
Chair: Katsuhiro SAITO (The University of Tokyo)
1. Market Size, Productivity and Product Quality regarding Firm Heterogeneity
Shiuehung LIN (Nanfang College of Sun Yat-Sen University)
Yungho WENG (National Chengchi University)
2. Producer Service, Input Variation and Chinese Manufacturing Firm's Productivity
Yinghua MENG (Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)
Ye ZUOYI (Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)
3. Cost Criteria and Productivity Criteria Using the World Input Output Database
Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)

Venue C, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Productivity 2
Chair: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
1. Policy Impact of Public Procurement for Innovation for Korean Telecommunication
Equipment Industry: Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis
Kiyoon SHIN (Seoul National University)
Yeongjun YEO (Seoul National University)
2. 13 Year Thailand TFP
Nutpol SIRISAWANG (L P Laikhum Co., Ltd.)Nattaya KLAIRUANG (Kasesart University)
Apichart DALUNPETE (Kasesart University)

Venue C, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by Ritsumeikan University
Chair: Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
1. International Production Sharing of the Textile-Clothing Industry of Bangladesh and Asian
Exporters
Md MASUM (Ritsumeikan University)
Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
2. Role of SMEs and Its Constraints: Case of Central Asia and Eastern Europe
Sevara MADGAZIEVA (Ritsumeikan University)
Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
3. The Effects of Career Interruptions on Japanese Female Wages: Does the Timing of Birth
Matter?
Magdalena Triasih DUMAULI （Ritsumeikan University)

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Venue C

Social Gathering
Wednesday, March 28, 18:00-20:00
2nd Floor, Asian Legal Exchange Plaza

Venue C, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Compilation and Theory of I-O, SNA or SAM 1
Chair: Keiji UJIKAWA
1. FISIM (SNA Bank Output Measures) and Endogenous Money Supply
Akimasa KATSURA (Momoyama Gakuin University)
2. Propagation of Economic Shocks through Input-Output Network: A Case of Thailand
Rangsima SRISAWAT (Thammasat University)
3. Compilation and estimation of EEIOT based on SEEA-CF
Keiji UJIKAWA (Yokohama National University)

Venue C, 6th session
Thursday, March 29, 15:30-17:30
Compilation and Theory of I-O, SNA or SAM 2
Chair: Kwangmoon KIM
1. A Network Analysis of Thai Macroeconomic Fluctuation through Input-Output Model
Pirapat PAREERATANASOMPORN (Thammasat University)
2. Creating a Financial and Social Accounting Matrix Using an Excel-based Computable
General Equilibrium Model
Yusuke FUKUSHIMA (Kyoto University)
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
3. Empirical Analysis of Economic Interdependencies in the GMS Based on a Five-Nation
International Input-Output Table
Hidefumi KANEKO (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
Secretario FRANCISCO (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)

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Venue D

Venue D, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Organized session by Korea KESRA-KIET
Chair: Jinmyon LEE (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
1. A Generalized Measure of Bilateral Trade
Bawoo KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
2. Analysis on Production Ripple Effects between Large and SME (Small and Medium
Enterprises): Focusing on the Trickle Down and Up Effects
Youngho LEE (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
Jaejin KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
3. Analysis on Creating of Value Added in Korea Electronics Industry using WIOT
Taehyun KWON (Bank of Korea)
Youngho JUNG (Bank of Korea)
4. A New Approach for the Size Estimation of Sports Market
Joonho KANG (Seoul National University)
Hwaseob KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)

Venue D, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Organized session by Meiji University
Chair: Tadashi YAGI (Meiji University)
1. A Study of Industrial Structure in France
Rintaro MATSUDA (Meiji University)
2. A Study of Structural Changes in Japanese Industries
Tsutomu YOSHIOKA (Meiji University)
3. Input-Output Table and Pasinetti's Macroeconomic Condition
Jun OMATA (Meiji University)

Venue D, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by China CIOA
Chair: Cuihong YANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
1. Urban Transformation as An Adaption to Resource and Environmental Constraints Basedon A Case Study of Beijing: From Efficiency Priority Strategy to Total Control Strategy
Zhuoying ZHANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Xiaoling ZHANG (City University of Hong Kong)
Minjun SHI (Renmin University of China)

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Venue D
2. Exploring the Role of Real Estate Sector in Economy Based on Input-Output Analysis
Xiuting LI (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Jing HE (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Jichang DONG (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zhi DONG (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
3. Measuring the Generalized Global Industry Relocation: Based on World Input-Output
Model
Xiang GAO (Chinese Academy of Sciences)〇Cuihong YANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Social Gathering
Wednesday, March 28, 18:00-20:00
2nd Floor, Asian Legal Exchange Plaza

Venue D, 4th session
Thursday, March 29, 10:00-12:00
Organized session by India E3 Model Team
Chair: Surabhi JOSHI (E3-India Initiative)
1. Modelling the Power Sectors of East Asia in 2050 using E3ME-FTT: Power
Soocheol LEE (Meijo University)
2. Modelling Impacts of Scaling up Energy Efficient Cleaner Technologies for Thermal
Comfort in India using E-3 India
Surabhi JOSHI (E3-India Initiative)
3. Regional Impacts of Renewable Energy Targets on ｔhe Indian Economy: Application of
E3-India Model
Kakali MUKHOPADHYAY (Gokhale Institute of Politics & Science and McGill University)
Partha Pratim Ghose (St. Xaviers college)

2018-04-02

9Venue D

Venue D, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Organized session by Nagoya University 1
Chair: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
1. Inter-province Carbon Transfers of ETS Covering Sectors in China
Yiyi JU (Nagoya University)
2. Income Distribution Effects of Carbon Tax in Chinese Provinces
Yuzhu WANG (Nagoya University)
3. The Role of Agro-processing Industries in Promoting Economic Growth in Vietnam
Trang Hong VU (Nagoya University)

Venue D, 6th session
Thursday, March 29, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by Nagoya University 2
Chair: Jiro NEMOTO (Nagoya University)
1. Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in Japanese Manufacturing
Huijie GU (Nagoya University)
2. A Spatial Autoregressive Stochastic Frontier Model for Panel Data Incorporating a Modelof Technical Inefficiency
Takahiro TSUKAMOTO (Nagoya University)
3. A Meta-analysis of Management Forecast
Xiaobai ZHANG (Nagoya University)

2018-04-02

10Venue A Abstract

Abstract
Venue A, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Environment, Resource and Energy
1. Does Democracies Affect the Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions? An Empirical Analysis in
America
Lichen CHOU (Wenzhou Business College)
Hsingchun LIN (National Chiayi University)
Fuming YANG (Wenzhou Business College)
Wanhao CHANG (Wenzhou Business College)
This study explores whether the development of democracy can significantly affect CO2 emissions and theenergy efficiencies in the countries. Database reference from Freedom House, Polity IV project and World
Development Indicator (WDI) were applied to analyze the relationship between the democracy development,
CO2 emissions and the energy efficiency of 26 countries in America from year 1990 to 2013. Empirical resultshows that the deepening democracy has a significant impact on the reduction of national CO2 emissions
and brings a positive influence on energy efficiency. The further application of quantile regression also
indicates that the influence of democratization on CO2 emissions and countries' energy efficient scores are
significant.

2. An International Comparison of the Effectiveness of Price Control under Energy Price Shocks
Shihmo LIN (Chung Yuan Christian University)
Shianghung SHEN (Chung Yuan Christian University)
Jinxu LIN (Chung yuan Christian University)
Kueifeng CHANG (Chung Yuan Christian University)
This paper examines the relative effectiveness of price control for certain consumer goods and services on
the general price level of major Asian economies in the face of rising energy prices. We conduct our analysis
based on an international input-output price model. We also examine and compare the trends of the effects
over time. Structural decomposition analyses between periods are performed to figure out the factors mostattributable to the change of the price level resulting from a rise in energy prices. We make use of the newly
published 2014 World Input-Output Tables (WIOTs) by the European Union to set up the international pricemodels for the analysis. Our analysis covers 44 countries or regions and spans from 2000 to 2014. Structural
decomposition analysis, however, is conducted mainly for the changes between 2000 and 2014. The results
show that, price control would be relatively more effective for Japan than for Korea and Taiwan in easing therise of CPI due to energy price hikes. With regard to which factor would be most responsible for the differential
effects found between Taiwan and Korea over the 2000-2014 periods, our results reveal that the relatively
slow adjustment in production technology for energy sectors in Taiwan might be accounted for.

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Venue A Abstract
3. A note on the relationship between the waste input-output linear programming (WIO-LP) modeland the rectangular choice-of-technology (RCOT) model
Yasushi KONDO (Waseda University)
Duchin and Levine (2011, Econ Syst Res; 2012, J Econ Struct) proposed a linear programming input-output
model, called the rectangular choice-of-technology (RCOT) model, in which one or more sectors may
produce a commodity. RCOT model provides a framework to analyze scarcity rents for resources. Kondo
and Nakamura (2005, Econ Syst Res) proposed the waste input-output linear programming (WIO-LP) modelin which generated waste is allocated to multiple treatment technologies in an optimal way. Similarities anddifferences between RCOT and WIO-LP models would be discussed at the Conference.

Venue A, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Environment, Resource and Energy
1. FTA and Structural Change in Environmental Load in the East Asian Region
Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University)
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
This study quantitatively examines economic and environmental impacts and structural changes caused by
FTAs in the East Asia region by measuring CO2 emissions. We assess the following eight simulations:
China-Japan FTA, China-Korea FTA, Japan-Korea FTA, China-Japan-Korea FTA, East Asia FTA, East
Asia-Oceania FTA, TPP members' FTA, and Asia-Pacific FTA. An inter-regional input-output model is
combined with a CGE model to evaluate structural changes in the environmental load. Although theenvironmental effects of FTAs differ across regions, we can make several general conclusions from our CGE
analysis. First, under all scenarios, increases in CO2 emissions are very noticeable in East Asian countries.
Second, by taking part in an FTA with China, output of many energy-intensive industries is likely to increasein Japan and Korea, while decreasing in China. Third, both labor and capital are likely to be replaced byenergy in FTA regions because FTAs tend to increase wages and the cost of capital, compared with energy
prices. The input-output analysis shows that both exports and imports of embodied CO2 emissions increase
for almost all FTA members. It is interesting, however, that CO2 emissions induced by China's final demanddecreases under the FTA scenarios where China participates in the FTA. The structural decomposition
analysis suggests that the emission coefficient change contribution and the final demand contribution are
positive for almost all FTA members. Notably, total CO2 emissions decrease in China for China-Japan-Korea
FTAs, because the negative technological change contribution is larger than the positive final-demandchange contribution.

2. Scenario Input-Output Analysis on the New Hydrogen Supply System and Diffusion of Fuel Cell
VehiclesMitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Nagoya University)
Yoshito UMEDA (Toho Cryogenics Co., Ltd.)

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Venue A Abstract
In 2016, the Paris Agreement came into force as a new framework for the global environmental measures,
especially mitigation of climate change, after 2020. The feature of this agreement is that each country sets an
individual target on emissions of GHG called NDC. Under this agreement, Japan is to move toward the targetof 26 percent reduction of GHG emissions before 2030 comparing those in 2013. In order to attain this target,
it is indispensable to transcend a current fossil energy based society and shift to a renewable energy oriented
society, and shift to a carbon dioxide emission free fuel in use as to energy sources besides introducing
energy conservation technologies in each sector of manufacturing, transportation, business, and households.
Then, a fuel cell whose motive power is hydrogen is being paid attention. Hydrogen, a source of energy for afuel cell, can be generated in various ways. Representative examples include the extraction from fossil fuels
or the electrolysis of water. Currently it is already in practical use to get hydrogen by steam reforming frompetroleum, natural gas or coal such as Australian unused brown coal. These methods, however, have adisadvantage to emit carbon dioxide in the production process of hydrogen. Our research group isdeveloping a new hydrogen generating system that directly decomposes hydrogen from methane, which
separates carbon as a solid substance with no carbon dioxide emissions. We will estimate the carbon dioxide
reduction effect of our new hydrogen generating system comparing with the current steam reforming method
by applying scenario Input-Output analysis. In implementing this simulation analysis, we assume a certain
volume of diffusion of fuel cell vehicles in the future and we use it as a reference case of the simulation analysis.

Venue A, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Environment, Resource and Energy
1. Economic and environmental impact by the choice of power sources in China: an application of
scenario input-output analysis
Jiayang WANG (The University of Tokyo)
China's energy consumption has been increased rapidly especially in the last decade. While China has
become the largest energy consuming and CO2 emitting country in the world leaving behind the UnitedStates, energy saving is becoming one of the most urgent political issues in China. As a matter of fact, China
has declared that CO2 emissions per GDP will be reduced by 60-65% (compared with 2005) and total CO2
emissions will be peaking out by 2030 in the Paris Agreement in 2015. China's economy depends highly on
fossil energies, especially coal. In order to achieve the Paris Agreement, China needs to reform such energy
structure. The power generation sector accounts for approximately 50% of China's total CO2 emissions andthe coal-fired power generation occupies about 70% of China's total power generation. Power generation by
renewable energies, therefore, attracts a great interest from China's power sector because of its low CO2
intensity. Though renewable power generation is now rapidly diffusing in China, there are some issues thatshould be discussed. For example, it is not clear how large the economic negative/positive effect it will begiven when the coal-fired power generation is replaced by renewable energies. Or, it is not clear how much
CO2 emissions can be reduced when the coal-fired power generation is replaced by renewable energies,
either. In other words, it is not clear how much is the marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions by

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Venue A Abstract
introduction of renewable energies. This paper applies scenario input-output analysis in order to solve thesechallenges in China by shifting power sources.

2. Resilient Partnership under Mega Disaster
Michael HUANG (GRIPS)
The paper aims to provide the economic assessment in an assumed M9.1 earthquake in Japan's Nankai
though area. Based on the assumed disaster impact data in the collapse building, we apply GTAP world
trade model and examine the global economic impact focusing on the global supply chains of electronic,
machinery and transportation equipment sectors. We also employ a recursive CGE model for investigate
cost-effective recovery policy for Japan. The paper is expected to provide visualized disaster economic
impact assessment that could be useful to identify the vulnerable industries and make ex-ante risk
management.

Venue A, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Regional Input-Output Analysis
1. Measuring Inclusivity and Marginality: Estimating Philippine Regional Input- Output Tables Using aNon- Survey Approach
Josephine TEVES (Kyoto University)
The Philippine economy has experienced sustained and high growth as it grew by 6.5 percent in the second
quarter of 2017. However, amidst economic growth, there are still people who are not able to feel the
economic gains. As poverty headcount ratio remains high, the Philippines need to pursue inclusive growthand implement the new medium- term development plan that aims to transform the country into an uppermiddle income economy, through rapid poverty reduction. The pursuit of regional economic development
analysis requires detailed information about dynamic regional economies. Hence, regional input-output (IO)
tables must be estimated using updated information. Using commonly used economic assumptions andavailable economic information, this paper examined on how IO helped in studying regional development
policy in the Philippines. Specifically, it drew from Leontief's demonstration of inter dependencies between
economic sectors to suggest that whereas national IO table is about giving better better granularity to thenational accounts through an application of the technology of production, regional IO table provides regionalvariation in that technology and an understanding of the role of inter regional trade in an economy. The
research contributes to several kinds of literature, particularly to an emerging area of study, the antecedents
of inclusive growth framework.

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Venue A Abstract
2. Examining the Revolutionary Donation Tax in the Context of the Philippine Interregional Input
Output Table
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
Paolo Nicholas Cortes PADERANGA (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)
Josephine TEVES (Kyoto University)
Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI (Kyoto University)
Conflict is deeply ingrained and incorporated into the history and culture of the Philippines. This paper aims
to explore the existence and scope of a shadow economy in the Philippines by justifying and incorporating
the alleged Revolutionary Donation Tax excised by certain quasi government groups. It explores the history,
political ideology, and social impact of the said groups to establish the deep roots of this tax. This paper thenincorporates the said tax into the Inter Regional Input Output Table to analysis its magnitude and linkages.

3. RAS structural decomposition analysis on the rural labor movement in Guizhou, China
Shuning CHEN (Anshun University)
Masaru KAGATSUME (Kyoto University)
Since 2010, China has started to emphasize the urbanization and interregional trade in the inland area toimprove the regional economic development. This research applied the RAS structural decomposition
analysis (SDA) framework to understand the determinants of the rural labor movement in Guizhou province.
We decomposed the sectoral employment, labor productivity and income change according to four groupsof factors which are the labor usage, the domestic final demand, the inter-regional trade (export and import)
and the technical change. The results indicate the rural labor in Guizhou has strong tendency to move out
from the agricultural sector. However, the employment opportunity in the modern urban sector has been
reduced because of the rising of labor productivity and the income has increased in the process of output
growth. On the other hand, the improvement of the labor productivity and production earning in agricultural
sector seem to be very small. The cell-specific technical change in agricultural sector shows negative
influence on labor productivity and the agricultural earning. From these results, we suggest that, for reducing
the unemployment rate and promoting the sustainable development in the urbanization process in Guizhou,
it is very important for policymakers to mitigate the urban-rural income differential and to improve the structureof agricultural production in a reasonable way.

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Venue B Abstract

Venue B, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
International Economy and International Development 1
1. Dynamics of Spatial Poverty and Disparity: Evidence from Vietnam, 1993-2014
Takahiro YAMADA (Keio University)
This paper verifies the dynamics of spatial poverty and inequality, notably for the bottom 40 percent of
population in Vietnam, during the period of 1993-2014. According to Theil T and Blinder-Oaxaca
decompositions, expenditure inequalities of urban-rural and between regions were diverging from the year
1993 to 2004, but they were converging from the year 2004 to 2014. Contrary, inequalities within areas andregions were converging from 1993 to 2004, and then diverging from 2004 to 2014. The urban-rural
expenditure gap is mainly explained by years of education, job sector, and ethnic minority status of thehousehold head, and remittances over the duration. For the determinants of poverty of bottom 40 percent of
the population, years of education, service sector job and remittances, among others, largely and positively
explained the dynamics. There are interesting chronological changes, notably on return to education and therole of domestic remittances for the increase of expenditure. The effects have been getting larger as timegoes by from 1993-2014. Ethnic minorities are left behind from the benefits of economic growth relative tomajority Kinh.

2. A Quantitative Analysis of Global Value Chains
Haoliang ZHU (Doshisha University)
This paper aims to measure the landscape of China's exports and real gains within global value chains. To
this end, the first question to answer is whether the existing evidence based on conventional statistics reflectsa real picture of China's exports. This paper analyzes domestic value-added (DVA) in China's exports overthe period of 2000-2014 using World Input-Output Database (WIOD). By employing the framework
introduced by Wang et al. (2013) and Koopman et al. (2014), this paper measures DVA in exports at thecountry, industry and sector-group (group of several sectors) level. The results show the long-run trend of
DVA in China's exports and heterogeneity across different industries including high-technology, medium
technology and low technology. The second question is what factors affect the change of DVA in exports.
This paper not only measures the DVA in exports but also quantifies factors that cause the change of DVA.
Such changes could be affected by different factors, such as changes in value-added coefficients (e.g. laborand capital), domestic input technology, export value, export structure and other factors. This paper extends
the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) approach to examining the driving forces that affect DVA in
China's exports. The results confirm that the increase of DVA in exports is mainly due to the expansion ofexport value. Moreover, the substitution of domestic intermediate inputs for imported materials contributes to
the growth of DVA in exports.

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Venue B Abstract

Venue B, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
International Economy and International Development 2
1. Climate Change, Yield Variation and the Volatility of International Price of Rice
Katsuhiro SAITO (The University of Tokyo)
Hideyasu SATO (The University of Tokyo)
Konomi SAITO (Soka University)
The average temperature of the Earth rose 0.74 degrees centigrade for 100 years from 1906 to 2005, andaccording to the forecast by IPCC, it will be increasing 2 to 4 degrees centigrade on average at the end of thiscentury. Since climate change affects temperature, precipitation and radiation, the level of crop yields as wellas the variation of them is going to be affected by climate change as well.

There are a lot of researches

which evaluate the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Most of these studies estimate andpredict the production level, then evaluate the impact on prices. There is less research that concentrates on
the volatility of price per se. Since the influence of climate change is not uniform among countries or regions,the regional correlation in yield variation is observed. This means that the correlation is of great importancewhen we consider the variation in international price of rice.

Thus, the purpose of this study is to estimate

the index of yield variation of rice for each country, to make analysis on the correlation matrix of these indexes,
to evaluate the price volatility of rice, and to get the implication for poverty.

First of all, we chose twenty two

countries and regions which are best ten for rice production, consumption and exportation (some are
overlapped). After estimating variation indices of rice yield, correlation matrices are calculated for several time
periods such as 1960-2015, 1980-2000, and 2000-2015. We found some pairs with relatively highcorrelations.

Next the synthetic international trade model of rice was constructed, and simulation was

conducted for getting the international price of rice for yield variation with stochastic index of yield. The
stochastic index (pseudo random numbers) was constructed with random number so as to preserve theestimated correlation.

As a result, coefficient of variation for international price of rice during 1980 to 200

was 8 per cent, while the coefficient during 2000 to 2015 was 12 per cent. We confirm that the potential
volatility of international price of rice is getting larger recent years. At the same time, we did the simulation withuncorrelated yield index and obtained almost the same coefficients of variation for two periods, i.e. 3 per cent.
Climate change makes correlation of yield variation higher in recent years.

We live in developed country

with low Engel coefficient, and the price pike is not so much a big issue. For people who live in less developed
countries with high Engel coefficient, price pike has the big impact. In addition, the increase of uncertainty in
output price makes the producer less incentive to invest for future production. Thus, future production, in thelong run, may be a factor to increase the level of international price of rice. We draw the implication of rice
price volatility on poverty.

On this study, ending and beginning stock of rice are assumed to be exogenous.

In reality, governments are trying to control the stock so as to stabilize the price level of rice. Thus, the resultof our study might be over estimate the price volatility. Some researchers point out the increase in international
price volatility due to domestic price stabilization policy.

We concentrate only on rice. When we take into

account the wheat, which is one of the substitutes of rice, the volatility may be reduced depending on theelasticity of substitution and the correlation between rice and wheat yield variations. These are remaining
points for further study.

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Venue B Abstract
2. Economic Assessment of Global Value Chains: Case of China and India
Kakali MUKHOPADHYAY (Gokhale Institute of Politics & Science and McGill University)
Cuihong YANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Global Value Chains (GVCs) have taken centre stage in the process of development in developing
and developed countries alike. China has established itself as the hub of low-cost production in theworld and India has also been making tremendous policy shifts to reap the benefits of participating in
GVCs. The position of a country in the vertical supply chain has come to dictate the distribution of
surplus generated by this process. In this context, research and development (R&D) plays asignificant role in productivity enhancement of production processes and is often the source oftechnology improvement in developing nations. However, the extent of the impact of R&D in GVCs,
especially in upstream positions of the supply chain, remains inconclusive. Given the dominant role
played by GVCs in the globalization process of economies, both India and China have madesignificant policy changes for better integration in the same. To tap into this environment, India has
undertaken a major national initiative, “Make in India”, with the objective of facilitating investment,
fostering innovation, enhancing skill development and increasing ease of doing business. The
government of India launched supporting initiatives such as Digital India, Start up India, Skill India,
Smart City projects and Pradhan Mantri Jhan Dhan Yojana to complement the Make in India project.
The participation in GVCs has significant implications for technology improvement and productivity
enhancement. Both countries have invested large amounts of capital, both financial and human, inlarge R&D projects.
In light of recent developments, focusing on China and India, this study aims to measure the imported
intermediate inputs used in domestic processing sectors and the content of imported intermediate
inputs in the export basket. The study assesses the R&D content in the imported intermediates andalso in export. The study extends its analysis to the environmental impacts on the economies byaccounting carbon emissions of imported intermediate inputs and its exports of both economies.
Further, it calculates the domestic labour requirement to process the imported input so also export for
China and India. The study attempts to address these objectives using the data from GTAP and GVC.
The preliminary result indicates the efficiency and the competitiveness of China over India in international trade in value-added with a deepening of vertical specialization. Overall for both countries,
the use of intermediate imports for exports is high although it varies depending on the trading partner.
As per the results, R&D embodied in imported input by India is highest in the case of those from the
EU and USA. In the Chinese economy, the EU and USA have highest absolute R&D content
embodied in imported inputs. Additionally, the trade in intermediate goods appears to have large
polluting implications on the economy.

3. Global and Regional Shock Transmission
Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)
Chinese economic growth in 2009 did not decline sharply, even though Chinese gross export ofmanufacturing goods experienced largest decline due to the global financial crisis in 2008 among Asian
countries. In contrast, Japanese GDP growth fell sharply due to the global financial crisis as compared to

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Venue B Abstract
Chinese GDP. This paper attempt to figure out economic shock transmission mechanism associated withasymmetric impact of the global financial crisis on Asian economies.

Venue B, 5th session, 13:00-15:00
Thursday, March 29
Computable General Equilibrium Model
1. Assessing the Economy-Wide Effects of Public Procurement for Innovation Based on A CGE
Analysis: A Case of Korean Electric Vehicle Sector
Yeongjun YEO (Seoul National University)
Kiyoon SHIN (Seoul National University)
Public procurement for innovation (PPI) has become a major innovation policy tool in recent years. While PPI
refers to an order, placed by a public organization, for a new or improved product/service, because of theleverage it provides of state expenditures as regards the demand for and supply of innovation, PPI can also
be defined and deployed as a deliberate demand-side innovation policy tool. Traditionally, innovation policy
initiatives of countries and regions have mostly come from the supply-side, with interventions such as fiscal
measures, support for training and mobility, public financing of research and development (R&D), information
and brokerage support, and networking measures. However, the role of demand as an enabler and sourceof innovation has been a topic in innovation studies and policy for quite some time. Several studies haveargued that PPI is much more effective for inducing innovation and speeding up the diffusion of innovation
than any other innovation policy tools. Those studies state that PPI has various merits in overcoming various
kinds of bottlenecks and problems in the generation and diffusion of the innovation, such as market andsystem failures which hamper the market entry of potential suppliers and diffusion of innovative goods orservices. Despite of growing interests on the PPI as the innovation policy instrument, however, policy designof the public procurement for innovation has not been underpinned by a clear theoretical or empirical basis,
rather based on anecdotal evidence. Empirical evidence about the effect of public procurement on innovation
output and the economy more generally is rather fragmented and mostly limited to case studies. However,policymakers and practitioners are increasingly interested in finding out how to use their sizeable procurement
budgets to address multiple objectives (such as, promoting innovation, driving economic growth, improving
delivery of public services), and investigating the channels by which direct and indirect impacts of PPI takeplace within the economic system. Addressing a significant gap in our systematic understanding of theeconomy-wide effects of PPI, this study firstly attempts to analyze economic effects of PPI oriented towards
an emerging sector, focusing on the Korean electric vehicle sector. In order to quantify the impacts
numerically, we develop a knowledge-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which
incorporates some essential characteristics of knowledge and innovation activities (e.g., incorporating R&D
activities, knowledge accumulation and knowledge spillover effects) in order to capture the changes ofinnovation-related activities within the economy induced by PPI policies. This methodological approachenables us to identify the linkage between the PPI and innovation from the innovation system perspective,
and understand the impact channels/mechanisms induced by PPI within the economic system. Secondly,
this study aims to construct additional policy scenarios by adopting an understanding of PPI as well as
innovation policies, and by positioning PPI as a cross-domain policy which is inherently a mix of procurement

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Venue B Abstractand innovation-related interventions (e.g., R&D tax credits or purchase subsidies). Based on these additional
scenarios, this study compares the results of those scenarios, and analyzes how and which policy mix canbe advantageous for the economic system under the PPI scheme oriented towards a new emerging sector(i.e., electric vehicle sector in Korea). Accordingly, this study expects to give a guidance for the public sector
to achieve the value for money when it designs and implements the innovation-friendly PPI practices.
Ultimately, ex-ante policy analysis based on standardized, validated methods based on a knowledge-based
CGE model would provide a major contribution to the effectiveness of PPI and promote evidence-based
policy making for economic growth and the improvement of the public good.

2. China in 2025: Implications for Africa
Christian OTCHIA (Kwansei Gakuin University)That China is the main driver of economic growth in Africa, and that will last for the next 20 or 25 years at least
is no longer a debate. What is not yet clear is the impact of recent policies of reorienting the Chinese economy
towards domestic demand away from export-led growth. This paper provides a comprehensive and cohesive
analysis of the likely effects on African economies of the recent structural reforms in China andcomplementary domestic policies by linking a global computable general equilibrium (GTAP) model tonational CGE models that features domestic microsimulations. My analysis considers two steps. In the firststep, I use the GTAP model to simulate growth and structural change in China, with and without theContinental Free Trade Agreement (CFTA) in Africa. Then I feed the changes (e.g. terms of trade, tradevolume, FDI, etc.) from the GTAP model into national CGE models for two African countries, one resourcerich (Congo) and a resource-poor (Ethiopia), to assess the potential role of domestic complementary policies
in maximizing welfare.

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Venue C Abstract

Venue C, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Productivity 1
1. Market Size, Productivity and Product Quality regarding Firm Heterogeneity
Shiuehung LIN (Nanfang College of Sun Yat-Sen University)
Yungho WENG (National Chengchi University)
In this study we expand the basic framework of the model proposed by Melitz 2003 by including variables for
production efficiency and product quality. We then use this expanded model to explore the effects of a scalar
expansion of the global market in addition to the effects of the asymmetric market scale between countries.
When the global market expands taking the case of the home country we find that the market allows only forlowering the productivity threshold for firms providing services to the domestic market and for firms with exportabilities. However demand for other types of products increases according to the increases in the scale of the
global market without affecting pricing while the profits of individual firms across the industry rise. This also
allows those combinations of production efficiency and product quality originally unable to serve the domestic
market or be exported to meet domestic or export demand. Next we explore the effect of the asymmetricscale between two countries markets We find that an expansion of the home countrys market will allow forfirms with lower productivity to survive in the domestic market however the productivity threshold for exporting
firms will increase. This finding illustrates that in the home country exporting firms must have higher
productivity to be capable of exporting to other countries. The corresponding contraction of the scale of aforeign countrys market will have the opposite effect. Furthermore, taking the case of export decision making
by firms from the two countries the zero profit curve for both countries firms distinguish between four export
decision making areas. These four areas describe different export decisions under various production
efficiency product quality combinations. This finding explains that not only firms with high productivity and highproduct quality can meet export thresholds rather it is necessary to have a reasonable level of product quality
or production efficiency. These circumstances occur more easily as the markets of the two countries become
more asymmetric in scale.

2. Producer Service, Input Variation and Chinese Manufacturing Firm's Productivity
Yinghua MENG (Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)
Ye ZUOYI (Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)
We use the micro-data of Chinas service firms and Chinas input output datasheet to study the influences of
producer services which act as intermediate inputs on the productivity of manufacturing firms. The results
show that the efficiency improvement of most producer services(except finance and education) have positiveeffects on Chinas manufacturing firms productivity and the positive effects of wholesaling industry, informationtransmission, computer service and software industry, scientific research industry and technical service
industry is more pronounced than the others. In addition, most producer service make stronger positiveeffects to the middle and high productivity manufacturing firms than to the low productivity manufacturing firms.
Thirdly, with the increasing input of high tech productive services, the positive effects on manufacturing firms
will be enhanced, while the impact on the productivity of the manufacturing firms is not obvious or will be
weakened with more input of the middle and low tech producer services. Finally, producer service increase

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Venue C Abstract
manufacturing firms productivity on east and middle region, while inhibit manufacturing firm's productivity onwest region.

3. Cost Criteria and Productivity Criteria Using the World Input Output Database
Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)
Based on the research of Okishio Nobuo, this paper examines different types of technical change, as
categorized by productivity criteria and cost criteria. We have used data from the World Input-Output
Database (focusing on developments in the international division of labor and technical advances for theperiod from 1995 to 2007) for our calculation and analysis. The results of our calculations confirm that for 124
out of 1,400 industries where technical change was accomplished, cost criteria were satisfied but productivity
criteria were not satisfied. Among these technical changes, 86 industries experienced change that resulted
in a decrease in direct labor and an increase in indirect labor, particularly indirect labor related to imported
intermediate goods. The study confirms empirically that one reason for this type of technical change is thatthe value of imported intermediate goods divided by the money wage rate of the recipient country is lower
than the amount of labor invested in imported intermediate goods.

Venue C, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Productivity 2
1. Policy Impact of Public Procurement for Innovation for Korean Telecommunication Equipment
Industry: Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis
Kiyoon SHIN (Seoul National University)
Yeongjun YEO (Seoul National University)
Recently, there is growing interest on public procurement for innovation which utilizes public procurement fortechnological innovation and diffusion of innovation. As public procurement for innovation is well-known for
one of the effective innovation policy tools, its policy impact assessment is limited on specific case studies
and direct R&D expansion effect only. However, it is important to investigate public procurement for innovationin economic and innovation systems perspective because its policy impact is generated through theinteractions and feedback among various economic agents; suppliers, consumers, governments, and social
factors. This study investigates the policy impact of public procurement for innovation as change of industrial
and innovation system of sector by input-output structural decomposition analysis. Specifically, it is analyzed
the effect of Korean TDX (Time Division Exchange) public procurement for innovation policy on industrial
system change of Korean telecommunication equipment manufacturing sector.

2.13 Year Thailand TFP
Nutpol SIRISAWANG (L P Laikhum Co., Ltd.)Nattaya KLAIRUANG (Kasesart University)
Apichart DALUNPETE (Kasesart University)
Thailand Total Factor Productivity and Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFP/TFPG) was made for morethan 10 year by Office of Economic Industry of Thailand (OIE). But it did not reflect to percentage of GDP.

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Venue C Abstract
Because of GDP changes by using CVM in last 5 year modification. By using survey data from 1870 data inlast 10 years and applied CVM to normalize TFP/TFPG and compare with the last method.

Venue C, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by Ritsumeikan University
1. International Production Sharing of the Textile-Clothing Industry of Bangladesh and Asian Exporters
Md MASUM (Ritsumeikan University)
Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
Production processes of textile-clothing industry (TCI) is increasingly fragmented and distributed acrosseconomies. As a result, it has become important to know the production sharing structure of the TCI of
Bangladesh and Asian exporters in the global value chains in terms of various value-added items. The
objective of this paper is to trace international production sharing of the TCI of Bangladesh and Asian
exporters. This paper applies input-output analysis on gross exports in the multiregional input-output
framework. The impact analysis finds that if one-unit final demand increases from outside of the Asian region,
the highest production will be in China (1.81 units) followed by Viet Nam (1.75 units), Bangladesh (1.38 units),
India (1.27 units), and Indonesia (1.16 units). To satisfy the increasing demand, production sharing in the TCIof Bangladesh is 1.9%, 1%, and 2% from China, India, and rest of the world respectively. Whereas,
production sharing in the TCI Viet Nam is the highest (18.2%). China and India are almost independent tosatisfy increasing international demand. This main contribution of this paper is to decompose the gross tradeflows of the TCI into various value-added and double counted terms.

2. Role of SMEs and Its Constraints: Case of Central Asia and Eastern Europe
Sevara MADGAZIEVA (Ritsumeikan University)
Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
This paper was aimed to examine the role of small and medium firms (SMEs) of transition countries
which consist of three areas; Central Asian countries, Central and Eastern European countries,
Balkan area, and how various constraints affect the performance of SMEs. The study conducts theempirical analysis to investigate the main determinants of firms’ growth in these areas. Empiricalmodel specifies that firms’ growth is not determined by only their features such as size or age, butalso by other specific factors such as index of financial constraint and tax rate. The dataset is takenfrom the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey dataset conducted by the WorldBank and covers 12 countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Slovakia) over the period from 2002 to
2013. SMEs’ dummy is used to investigate whether SMEs face tax and financial constraints. Besides
the sample is divided into three areas, Central Asian countries and Eastern European countries,
Balkan and Central European area to examine the characteristics of each area. The findings ofempirical analysis show that negative effect of corporate income tax still remains as major barrier for
SMEs, while SMEs do not suffer from financial constraint. The regression results by area show thattax barrier particularly severe in Central Asian countries.

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Venue C Abstract

3. The Effects of Career Interruptions on Japanese Female Wages: Does the Timing of Birth Matter?
Magdalena Triasih DUMAULI （Ritsumeikan University)
Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
Although many studies find the negative impact of childbearing on women’s wages, there is noempirical study in Japan which emphasizes the effect of timing of childbirth on wages due to data
limitation. This study is based on Keio Household Panel Data (KHPS) that contains specificinformation on the work historical data to attest whether motherhood timing is important by examining
the effect of the first age of childbirth on Japanese women wages. The empirical results show different
findings from the precious studies. First, comparison of OLS and Fixed Effect estimates indicates that
there are unobserved heterogeneities when women choose to be early and late child bearers.
Second, returns of experiences after birth indicates that Japanese females are more productive in thelabor force. Third, unlike in the US cases, child wage penalties are higher in Japan. It indicates thatthe opportunity costs are higher in Japan and it might the reason of discouraging Japanese women
to have babies. Four, there is no variation in the child wage penalty based on motherhood timing since
the decision to give birth will automatically impose women to bear wage penalties. Therefore, delaying
childbirth may not be the optimal strategy to build the Japanese women career.

Venue C, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Compilation and Theory of I-O, SNA or SAM 1
1. FISIM (SNA Bank Output Measures) and Endogenous Money Supply
Akimasa KATSURA (Momoyama Gakuin University)
FISIM (SNA bank output measures) and endogenous money supply -New proposal for bank output
measures- Akimasa Katsura I doubt why the market output of the bank industry does not exist in the
SNA output measures(FISIM). FISIM (SNA bank output measures) means a financial intermediation service.
This is not a market output and the service is not sold in the market. However, every industry other than bankindustry has its market output. I think that this situation has caused the weakness of the industrial analysis
employing SNA data and I-O data. In this report, I will point out four points as follows to search for more
better bank output measures. Firstly, I will point out that SNA peculiarity of the bank output measurement
derives from the exogenous money supply theory or money (credit) multiplier theory. But these theories thatcash money creates lending would not be effective, because as the quantitative easing shows, the volume
increase of the base money of central bank does not induce to the money stock through the bank industry
lending. Secondly, based upon the first point, it is necessary for us to seek for the alternative theory except
the exogenous money supply. I would like to consider, as its alternative theory, the endogenous money
supply theory. Before explaining the endogenous money supply theory, I will confirm both money supply
theories. To sum up both theories, the exogenous money supply theory is that the base money of central
bank brings bank lending, that is, bank industry lends the base money or cash money(external money). On
the other hand, the endogenous money supply theory is that bank lending is induced by transaction demand
and the necessity of central bank reserve deposit for deposit creation by bank lending is supplied by thecentral bank base money. So, it is found out that both theories are exact reverse regarding the relation

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Venue C Abstract
between bank lending and supply of the base money of central bank. In the following, I will consider the
relation between bank lending and base money supply from the point of the view of (1) bank industry
characteristic and (2) the decision process of policy interest through demand and supply of the reserve
deposit by central bank. As to (1), as deposit-taking corporations, the bank industry can lend without cash
money since the bank industry itself can issue the deposit(deposit creation). We can confirm that the bankindustry does not lend cash money(external money) but lends by deposit creation, therefore the starting pointof the bank industry activity is not collection of cash money or central bank reserve money but lending bydeposit creation. As to (2), as bank lending is deposit creation, bank lending generates deposit, this deposit
requires the deposit to the central bank, i.e., central bank reserve deposit in the bank industry, the central
bank supplies the base money for the demand of the reserve deposit in the bank industry through its operation,
as the result, the policy interest is decided, the policy interest guides the level of long and medium interest,
and referring to these interests, bank industry again lends by deposit creation. So we can confirm that the
supply of the base money of central bank is not starting point in the bank lending but the result of the banklending by deposit creation, and we can recognize that the endogenous money supply theory is superior to
the exogenous money supply theory with regard to the relation between bank lending and base money
supply from the above point of the view of (1) bank industry characteristic and (2)the decision process of policy
interest through demand and supply of the reserve deposit by central bank. Therefore, I think that we should
employ the endogenous money supply theory in the bank industry output measurement. Thirdly, I will pointout that since SNA bank output measurement has to be based on the endogenous money supply theory,that is, the base money of central bank or the cash money does not produce the bank lending, the banklending induces the deposit and the base money of central bank, in other words, the starting point of the bankindustry is not the base money of central bank or the cash money but the bank lending(deposit creation),
SNA bank industry output or sale is not the financial intermediation service but the lending service, and SNA
bank industry output volume is not the interest margin(lending interest minus deposit interest) but the lending
interest, that is, the lending service fee. This lending service in the bank industry is certainly market output.
Lastly, I will point out that the endogenous money supply theory makes the bank output measurement
method non-hypothetical or clear as compared with FISIM hypothetical measurement method, and also it
makes industrial structure analysis in the SNA and I-O effective and useful. I think that if SNA abandons theconsideration of the endogenous money supply theory in the bank output measurement, the confusion of
SNA bank output measurement method will continue everlastingly.

2. Propagation of Economic Shocks through Input-Output Network: A Case of Thailand
Rangsima SRISAWAT (Thammasat University)
This paper examines the vulnerability in the economy through input-output network connecting economic
sectors of Thailand. Specifically two quantitative methods based on network theory have been applied to the
input-output tables of Thailand during 1975-2010. The first method investigated the propagation of an
exogenous shock of final demand within the economic system . The second technique examines impacts ofchanges in linkages among economic sectors by using the adaptation of diffusion model. The results
obtained from the first method indicate that other foods and its related sectors such as restaurants and hotels,
processing and preserving of foods mostly generate the largest impacts during 1975-2010. This outcome isvery similar to the rank of backward multipliers (i.e.Leontief multipliers), indicating that foods and related

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Venue C Abstract
industries have the biggest impacts. The results obtained from the second computation identify that change
in the production technology of textile industry could lead to the highest impact on Thai economy in 1975.
Also the other manufacturing production could influence the largest impact in 1980. During 1990 -2005, public
works and other construction was the sector creating the largest impact. These results indicate the key
sectors of Thai economy and they would be very useful for future policy formulation and for disaster alleviation.

3. Compilation and estimation of EEIOT based on SEEA-CF
Keiji UJIKAWA (Yokohama National University)
The introduction of 2008SNA (Systems of National Accounts) to Japan can influence on the compilation ofa wide variety of input-output tables and statistics. After the publication of SEEA-CF (the System ofEnvironmental -Economic Accounting-Central Framework), as to the Environmental Satellite Accounts, theCabinet of Japan began to examine and estimate as JSEEA-Water. And concerning to the estimation of
supply and use tables and input-output tables of SEEA, We can refer the social Accounting Matrix multipliermodels adopting the estimation of Hybrid accounts in Japan according to SEEA2003. In this research, firstly
we clarify a wide variety of notions according to the change of SEEA versions. Secondly we compare thetheoretical framework of supply and use tables and input-output tables. Thirdly we clarify the features of
SEEA, Hybrid Accounts and SEEA-CF in Japan. Finally we try to calculate of Environmentally Extended I O of SEEA.

Venue C, 6th session
Thursday, March 29, 15:30-17:30
Compilation and Theory of I-O, SNA or SAM 2
1. A Network Analysis of Thai Macroeconomic Fluctuation through Input-Output Model
Pirapat PAREERATANASOMPORN (Thammasat University)
The aim of this paper is to examine the role of microeconomic interactions in shaping Thai macroeconomic
fluctuation by using network analysis. As standard argument views microeconomic behavior to be
idiosyncratic and symmetric by nature, sectoral shocks generated from microeconomic activities are
generally being averaged out as a single aggregate effect that impacts macroeconomy. This paper, in turn,argues that microeconomic activities can generate sizable aggregate effect if the economic structure is not in
its balance form. Based on the theoretical foundation provided by Acemoglu et al. (2012), if the outdegree
distribution of transactions exhibits power law distribution, the economy may not be balance and intersectoral
linkages may be the origin of aggregate fluctuation. Thai economic structure is being investigated through thelenses of input-output model and the data used in this study is 58 sector version of Thai input-output data,spanned from 1975 to 2010 with five-year intervals (except for the year 1998). The first outdegree and second
outdegree are being calculated from intersectoral transactions to estimate scaling parameters of power law
distribution. The baseline value of scaling parameters must be between 1 to 2 to confirm the existence of both
power law distribution and the origin of aggregate fluctuation. The scaling parameters are estimated basedon three different approaches, namely: OLS (Ordinary Least Square) estimation, Nadaraya-Watson kernel(nonparametric) regression, and ML (Maximum Likelihood) Hill type estimation. Out of three estimation
techniques, it is found that ML Hill-type estimation yields the most consistent estimates of scaling parameters
while OLS estimates and NW estimates are subject to bias and inconsistency. The average scaling

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Venue C Abstract
parameters of both first and second outdegree distributions based on ML Hill-type estimation are 1.74 and
1.06, respectively, which confirms that relatively overtime Thai economic structure is not balance andintersectoral shocks from Thai industries can generate aggregate fluctuation.

2. Creating a Financial and Social Accounting Matrix Using an Excel-based Computable General
Equilibrium Model
Yusuke FUKUSHIMA (Kyoto University)
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
This research shows a first approach to build a FSAM based CGE modeling for national wide macro
economy in Japan. It is proposed a methodology to build real FSAM and T-accounts for capital and financial
sector and construct Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of Japan which integrates real andfinancial sectors, and to apply it to a quantitative evaluation of the impacts on the national wide macro
economy caused by such external and internal shocks as oil price changes, fiscal and financial (foreignexchange rate) policies, tax policies and technological changes from the point of view of comparative statics
in SNA. In particular, we will that excel function can used as transparency of procedure for model calibration.

3. Empirical Analysis of Economic Interdependencies in the GMS Based on a Five-Nation
International Input-Output Table
Hidefumi KANEKO (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)
Kwangmoon KIM (Kyoto University)
Secretario FRANCISCO (Association of Regional Econometric and Environmental Studies)With the growing international economic relations among countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region(GMS), notably in terms of crossborder trade, investment, and labor mobility, this paper attempts tomeasure and analyze the economic interdependencies, based on a five nations international inputoutput (FNIIO) table constructed by linking the five countries of China, Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam,
and Cambodia where IO data are made available for the latest 2005. The result of analysis, which is
the multiplier effects of backward and forward linkages, the spillover and feedback effects, the impact
on production, and the impact on import, is that the economic interdependencies linking China,
Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam and Cambodia in the year 2005 were very weak in terms of the muchdifference of economic development stage or industrial structure in spite of the remarkable traffic
development. Furthermore, the spillover and feedback effects were found to be almost negligible
because of the much lower values of their bilateral trade transactions.

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Venue D Abstract

Venue D, 1st session
Wednesday, March 28, 10:00-12:00
Organized session by Korea KESRA-KIET
1. A Generalized Measure of Bilateral Trade
Bawoo KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
Several bilateral similarity measures in international economics literature have used Minkowski distance withparameter 1 without explicit justification. Depending on market structure and quality heterogeneity, a result
regarding similarity of bilateral trade may mislead the interpretation. To tackle this problem, a generalizedmeasure of similarity concept is given. As an example, the extended concept of similarity is applied to ESI
and a simulation with various Minkowski parameters is given to verify usefulness of parameter. It shows
Minkowski parameter can change the order of similarity among pairs and cautious choice is needed.
Heterogeneity in quality also accounted in the generalized parameter. For simplicity, a cumulative distribution
from actual data has chosen to proxy relative quality of a country's export of given product. It is possible toalternate the methodology. Kernel density is a good candidate and digging the technology-quality curves may
enhance the accuracy of analysis. The concept also can be applied to any micro data such as a firm level
data.

2. Analysis on Production Ripple Effects between Large and SME (Small and Medium Enterprises):
Focusing on the Trickle Down and Up Effects
Youngho LEE (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
Jaejin KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
Social polarization in Korea has been intensified. A trickle down and up effects have been recently highlighted
as solutions of social polarization. The trickle down effect has been discussed before, while researches
focusing on the trickle up effect have been cited relatively low. Thus, this study shows that the production
structure of industry is based on a close relationship among agents, and it is appropriate to look at the trickle
down and up effects at the same time. For a comprehensive analysis of the trickle down and up effects, thescope of activity was limited to production, and the scope of producers was limited to large and SMEs (small
and medium enterprises). In addition, the study analysed the path and scale of the ripple effect by separatingproduction ripple effects into the direct effect and the cross(trickle down and up) effect. Furthermore, it
examined how labour and capital, primary economic production factors, can impact on the direct effect andthe cross(trickle down and up) effect. The results of this study show that the direct effects are significantly
higher than the cross effect, which is divided into the trickle-down and -up effects, and that the linkage between
large and SMEs has been gradually weakening. In addition, it cannot find the one-way effect that theeconomic ripple effect caused by production toward either one of the large and SMEs. It cannot be a realistic
growth strategy for economy that one-sided growth and investment spread through other sides.

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Venue D Abstract
3. Analysis on Creating of Value Added in Korea Electronics Industry using WIOT
Taehyun KWON (Bank of Korea)
Youngho JUNG (Bank of Korea)
1 Overview of Korea electronic industry
2 Structural analysis on electronic industry with WIOT
3 Result of Analysisa) Production sideb) Demand sidec) Inducement of production and value-addedd) Effect on each countries and sectorse) Measuring TiVA
4 Implications

4. A New Approach for the Size Estimation of Sports Market
Joonho KANG (Seoul National University)
Hwaseob KIM (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)As the sport industry has been combined with a variety of industries such as manufacturing, broadcasting
and tourism, new types of business in the sport industry started to appear As a results, in the developed
countries like Japan and USA, there is new classification approach, which classifies the sport industry andattempts to understand its attributes. This is because understanding the characteristics of the sport market isefficient for policy development. However, classification standard related to the sport industry in Korea are stillbased on the provider's perspective, which makes it difficult to understand interrelation between industries inthe sport market and to find new types of business and its background. It also disturbs making and fulfilling
proper policies for the sport industry. Accordingly, this paper will suggest sport market value network as theclassification system, which can help grasp its attributes and the market condition, also increase the efficiency
and effectiveness of a policy. This paper especially attempts to suggest the market-based approach thatconsiders not only the consumer's position but the supplier's for golf market in Korea.

Venue D, 2nd session
Wednesday, March 28, 13:00-15:00
Organized session by Meiji University
1. A Study of Industrial Structure in France
Rintaro MATSUDA (Meiji University)
The aim of this analysis is to examine the evolution of French Industries. Based on I-O tables provided
by OECD, WIOD and Eurostat, we will analyze the structural changes in French Industries. Morespecifically, we will try to find out what are the crucial factors for the structural change in French
Industries by DPG Analysis.

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Venue D Abstract
2. A Study of Structural Changes in Japanese Industries
Tsutomu YOSHIOKA (Meiji University)
The aim of this paper is to examine the structural changes of Japanese industries by using InputOutput Table for Japan. We will evaluate structural changes of Japanese industries from the view
point of deviations from proportional growth. In this paper, I focus on service sectors which have large
shares in output.

3. Input-Output Table and Pasinetti's Macroeconomic Condition
Jun OMATA (Meiji University)
In this presentation, we will apply the macroeconomic condition of Pasinetti's structural economic
dynamics to Input-Output Tables for Japan. In Pasinetti's model, full employment of labor force isconsistent with full expenditure of national income, and unemployment is explained by the lack ofeffective demand. In case that unemployment exists, the macroeconomic condition is not satisfied.
We will use the model in which the production process of consumption goods and of capital goods
are separated. And we will construct the vertical integrated system from the Leontief's model in orderto check the macroeconomic condition.

Venue D, 3rd session
Wednesday, March 28, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by China CIOA
1. Urban Transformation as An Adaption to Resource and Environmental Constraints Based on A
Case Study of Beijing: From Efficiency Priority Strategy to Total Control Strategy
Zhuoying ZHANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Xiaoling ZHANG (City University of Hong Kong)
Minjun SHI (Renmin University of China)
In conjunction with its economic and population growth over the past decades Beijing has been
experiencing an increasing water shortage that is likely to become a choke point impeding its future
development as a sustainable city. This study conducts an optimization analysis in an input-output
framework to investigate Beijings urban transformation as an adaptive measure in response to water
resource constraints. The results show that urban transformation is currently affecting the severity ofwater resources and the constraint on water resources has become a hard constraint affecting
industrial development in restricting economic development in different phases. The study verifies thegreat potential of industrial restructuring for water saving as well as economic growth and the needfor a change in industrial structure transformation strategy from one of simply prioritizing efficiency to
one of total control by cutting down the scale of industry. The study contributes to a better
understanding of the transformation of Beijings industrial structure the associated impacts on water
resources and the possible actions that can be taken for their amelioration to maintain sustainable
development in the future.

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Venue D Abstract
2. Exploring the Role of Real Estate Sector in Economy Based on Input-Output Analysis
Xiuting LI (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Jing HE (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Jichang DONG (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zhi DONG (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Real estate plays an important role in the socio-economic development of all countries around the world.
Scientifically understanding the socio-economic effects of the real estate sector will help the government
reasonably formulate real estate development plan, effectively regulate the real estate market and promotesteady economic development. Based on the input-output tables of 43 countries (regions) published in WIOD
database from 2000 to 2014, we estimate the inter-sectoral linkages and macroeconomic effects of realestate sector in various countries, then analyzes the longitudinal development trends of economic effects ofreal estate sector in China as well as the differences compared with other countries. Furthermore, panel
model is used to empirically analyze the impact factors of economic effects of real estate sector. The findings
are as follows: 1) The related sectors with real estate in various countries show a shift from traditional material
industries to emerging service-oriented industries. 2) Compared to other countries, China's real estate sector
has a high proportion of financial consumption. 3) The key factors affecting the economic effects of the realestate sector include the level of national economic development, the level of financial sector development
and regulatory policies. Based on the above findings, we propose the planning and management strategies
of real estate sector around the coordinated development of real estate sector and social economy.

3. Measuring the Generalized Global Industry Relocation: Based on World Input-Output Model
Xiang GAO (Chinese Academy of Sciences)〇Cuihong YANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
The financial crisis in 2008 prompted the restructuring of the global value chain, and global industry relocation
presented more diversified features. Therefore, the researches on the measurement and mechanism ofindustry relocation become increasingly important. This paper put forward an approach to measuring thevalue of generalized industry relocation based on world input-output model. In empirical part, this paper
measured the value of generalized industry relocation during the periods 2000-2007 and 2007-2014. The
results revealed the features about industry relocation, some of which are consistent over time; the others
present the heterogeneity between these two periods and among different economies.

4. The Compilation Method on China’s Multi-regional Input-output Model
Yaxiong ZHANG (State Information Center)
Jianqin YUAN (State Information Center)
Jifeng LI (State Information Center)
This paper introduces the method and procedures on how to build the China’s multi-regional inputoutput (CMRIO) models of 2002,2007 and 2012, with highlighting the new features on the 2012 modelcompilation. The entire development work for CMRIO is based on 31-province classification, withrelying on each province’s IO table and using the national table as the control totals. We propose a

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Venue D Abstract
specific model based on entropy maximizing and gravity models to estimate the interregional tradecoefficients. The entrepot trade is taking into account in order to compile the import-inflow noncompetitive provincial tables. At the same time, the discrepancies of the CMRIO is discussed and thesuggestions on future improvement are given.

Venue D, 4th session
Thursday, March 29, 10:00-12:00
Organized session by India E3 Model Team
1. Modelling the Power Sectors of East Asia in 2050 using E3ME-FTT: Power
Soocheol LEE (Meijo University)
In this paper, we apply the power mix obtained from the simulation results under the policy scenariosof regulations on nuclear and coal power generation through 2050 to estimate and confirm the impact
on the economy (GDP, employment, etc.) and environment (CO2 emissions) by using E3ME(Energy,
Economy, Environment Macro Econometric Model). E3ME was developed by Cambridge
Econometrics and Cambridge University and has widely used to evaluate EU energy and climate
policies.
To ascertain what power mix is desirable from a social perspective, it is necessary to scientificallyassess the effects of various power mixes on the economy and environment, via quantitative analysis
and evaluation using a reliable estimation model. Restricting nuclear and coal-fired thermal power in
East Asia would increase power generation costs and exert a negative influence on the economy(particularly the GDP), but we show the effect of investment demand into alternative power sources,that is, the construction of renewable energy power plants, and a reduction in imports of fossil energy
would ameliorate the negative impacts over time. Regarding CO2 emissions, the study highlighted
considerable reductions although the amounts will differ between countries.

2. Modelling Impacts of Scaling up Energy Efficient Cleaner Technologies for Thermal Comfort inIndia using E-3 India
Surabhi JOSHI (E3-India Initiative)
Demand Side energy efficiency can go a long way in changing the trajectory of energy transitions inemerging economies like India. This paper compares impacts of technology interventions forproviding a more energy efficient thermal comfort alternatives for Indian households. Ceiling fan are
universally penetrated technology providing thermal comfort in Indian households and commercial
spaces. The product thus has strong integration of manufacturing within Indian economy. The study
captures impacts of mass introduction of more efficient ceiling fans for the Indian households. We
compare and analyse the impacts of more efficient fans not only on energy sector but also theeconomy and environment at the regional level using E3-India model. The comparison is drawn forvarious incentives to manufacturers and households for the technology switch and its overall impact
on the economy providing a holistic policy prescription using an integrated modelling framework.

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3. Regional Impacts of Renewable Energy Targets on ｔhe Indian Economy: Application of E3-India
Model
Kakali MUKHOPADHYAY (Gokhale Institute of Politics & Science and McGill University)
Partha Pratim Ghose (St. Xaviers college)
The renewable energy’s contribution to total energy source in India is account for 17.5% as of April
2017. India's overall installed capacity has reached 329.4 GW, with renewables accounting for 57.472
GW. A nationwide campaign has been launched to achieve five times more renewable capacity by
2022 and 40% by 2030. The mission also aims to achieve grid parity and parity with coal-based
thermal power by 2030 and feed 100 GW of solar power by 2022. The government has enhanced its
aspiration by amending the targets from 40 GW to 60 GW for wind power, 10 GW of biomass and 5
GW of small-scale hydropower by March 2022. Additionally, hydro power and biomass power
mandates are set by the government resulting into 175GW of Renewable Energy in 2022. In termsof meeting its ambitious 2022 targets, as of 31 March 2017, wind power was more than halfway
towards its goal, whilst solar power was below 13% of its highly ambitious target, although expansion
is expected to be dramatic in the near future. Bio energy was at just above 80% mark whilst smallhydro power was already 85% of the way to meet its target. Overall India is at 33% towards meetingits 2022 renewable installed power capacity target of 175 GW. Even though the nation is trying to
expand its renewable use, however, country's coal-fired fleet remains strong with a 59 percent sharein the total energy mix which is a major source of carbon emission. In this effort, India has voluntarily
pledged to the UNFCCC to reduce emission intensity of Gross Domestic Product by 33-35% below
2005 levels in 2030.
Given this backdrop, the current study attempts to evaluate the economic and environmental impactsof the Renewable Energy (RE) production mandates in 2030 at national and regional level in India
using E3 model. For this, several scenarios based on the targets are developed and further comparedwith the Business As Usual conditions. The results indicate the increases in industrial output andemployment as well as reductions in prices of other sectors and carbon dioxide and other GHG
emissions.
The government of India through Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is playing aproactive role in promoting the adoption of renewable energy resources by offering various incentives
such as generation-based incentives, capital and interest subsidies, viability gap funding,concessional finance, fiscal incentives etc.

Venue D, 5th session
Thursday, March 29, 13:00-15:00
Organized session by Nagoya University 1
1. Inter-province Carbon Transfers of ETS Covering Sectors in China
Yiyi JU (Nagoya University)
Emission trading scheme (ETS) is an essential option of climate policy instruments implemented in many
countries. China has been operating eight pilot markets since 2013. Its nationwide emission trading scheme,
the world' s largest emission trading market, was established at December 19th, 2017, with a market size of

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Venue D Abstract
RMB 45 billion (US$ 7.1bn), covering around 4 Gt CO2 per year in electricity supply sector. However, thisemerging instrument has been growing under multiple policy goals by different inter-dependent systems (tocut down the current overcapacity in certain sectors by industry policy makers, to restructure energy
consumption from energy policy makers, to strengthen China' s influence on global carbon pricing by foreign
affairs policy makers, etc.). To ensure CHN-ETS to develop effectively, efficiently and fairly in this complicatedcontext, this paper aimed to explore solutions in terms of ETS market design, specifically by providing
reference on adjusting allowance allocation at province level. An adjustment based on Multi-Regional InputOutput (MRIO) analysis may enable ETS to cover inter-province carbon leakages via trade. This paper foundthat in 2012, the inter-province transfer-out paths with the largest embodied emissions are from Inner
Mongolia to Beijing (87.20mt), from Shanxi to Beijing (79.18mt) and from Anhui to Beijing (16.91mt). An
adjustment matrix was reached by the net inter-province transfer-out emissions. Further, an ENA (Ecological
Network Analysis) model was utilized to figure out which sectors controlled the electricity supply sector andto provide references for a possible expansion of CHN-ETS in the future. Finally, based on the uniquefeatures of electricity supply sector in China, this paper explored the mechanism that emission abatement
cost of electricity supply sector could be transferred to other sectors as incentives to mitigate from theconsumption side.

2. Income Distribution Effects of Carbon Tax in Chinese Provinces
Yuzhu WANG (Nagoya University)
With the progress of industrialization and urbanization in China, greenhouse gas emissions due to large
amount of energy consumption are rapidly increasing. This research considers introducing carbon tax as one
measure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The introduction of carbon tax is expected to raise energy
prices, reduce consumption, and promote energy-saving technology. However, the extent to whichhousehold burden will be influenced by the introduction of carbon tax remains unresolved. By referring to theresidential areas and consumption pattern as reflected in the China Multi-Regional Input-Output Table 2012
and China Family Panel Studies 2012, this research aims to calculate how much household burden is
imposed on each province as according to different income groups.

3. The Role of Agro-processing Industries in Promoting Economic Growth in Vietnam
Trang Hong VU (Nagoya University)
Vietnam has been adopting the industrialisation and export-led growth model for economic development
since the enactment of Doi Moi (Economic Reform) Policy in 1986, which has resulted in the remarkable
growth rates of the gross domestic product and per capita income. In recent years, there has been a shift inthe export structure as the proportion of agro-processed commodities reduces while that of electronicequipment and other high technical content products rises as a response to the trends in international markets.
This study, hence, attempted to assess whether this change in the role of key industries is in fact mosteffective in promoting economic growth. This study focused on the agro-processing industries as thepotential strategic sector for spurring production, demonstrated by its backward linkage effect. The research
adopted Input-Output analysis to determine the output multipliers of these industries on the final production

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Venue D Abstractof the economy, then compared them with those of other sectors to depict the order of magnitude of theirstimulus power. The study covered all sectors in the economy as specified in the Input-Output tables ofVietnam. The industries of focus are food processing, beverage production, and tobacco production. The
analysis used five Input-Output tables from 1989 to 2012, a time range covering over two decades of
economic development and two economic recessions in 1997 and 2007. The 2012 table was the latest data
constructed by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam at the time of this research. The findings reveal thatagro-processing industries produce strong effects on inducing the production of the entire economy. The foodprocessing industry has the largest growth stimulating impact, surpassing that of all other sectors including
primary productions, services, and manufacturing sectors, some of which are currently key components ofVietnam's exports. This power has persisted for over two decades of economic development. Beverages
and tobacco industries are also among the most effective in terms of promoting economic growth. The
results generated from this study provide an empirical evidence for suggesting policy measures to boost thegrowth of Vietnam by stimulating the expansion of agro-processing industries, particularly food processing, inboth scale and the added value. Suggested strategies are (i) promote export of agro-processing products,
and their domestic consumption if accompanied by import-substitution strategies; (ii) create policies tofacilitate participation in global value chains; (iii) improve the competitiveness and capabilities of agroprocessing enterprises; (iv) increase investment in research and development to promote innovation of
production technology; and (v) improve the capital market to grant agro-processing businesses the accessto sufficient credit to expand and upgrade production.

Venue D, 6th session
Thursday, March 29, 15:30-17:30
Organized session by Nagoya University 2
1. Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in Japanese Manufacturing
Huijie GU (Nagoya University)
This paper uses the Input-Output analysis to investigate the impact of Japanese outward foreign direct
investment on domestic employment in the manufacturing industry. There is a fear that production ofoverseas affiliates will replace export and output of parent countries. As a consequence, it will cause job
losses, especially in labor-intensive manufacturing industry. On the other hand, outward FDI also has export
promotion effect on domestic economy of the home country. Parent enterprises need to export capital andintermediate goods for the construction and production of affiliates abroad in the early stage of outward FDI.
This effect will enhance the export and employment of home country. The results of this paper suggest thatthe negative impact of export substitution effect and import inverse effect is greater than the positive impact
of export promotion effect from 2000 to 2014, which means that the total effect of Japanese outward FDI is
negative and it causes the decrease of domestic production in Japanese manufacturing industry. As a result,it leads to the unemployment of Japan, which is called the hollowing-out effect. Also, this paper compares thecalculation result of period 2000-2014 with period 1990-1999, and finds that the hollowing-out of Japan has
become more serious with the increase of Japanese outward FDI. It is necessary to change the structure of
employment in Japan to alleviate the unemployment caused by outward FDI.

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2. A Spatial Autoregressive Stochastic Frontier Model for Panel Data Incorporating a Model ofTechnical Inefficiency
Takahiro TSUKAMOTO (Nagoya University)
By integrating Battese and Coelli's (1995) model and the spatial autoregressive model, we develop a spatial
autoregressive stochastic frontier model for panel data, which simultaneously estimates the factors oftechnical inefficiency. The proposed model is nested with many existing models, and then we conduct anempirical analysis and compare it with these existing models. We find that the proposed model is statisticallysupported. Our findings suggest that the estimates in the existing models can be biased due to the lack of thetechnical inefficiency factors and spatial lag.

3. A Meta-analysis of Management Forecast
Xiaobai ZHANG (Nagoya University)
The research studies about management forecast has been a heat topic in accounting/finance area among
the world. There is a considerable volume of research on management forecast focusing on various issues
such as the information content, forecast bias/accuracy, disclosure regulation, etc. In particular, extant
research has focused extensively on the role of management forecast in the functioning of capital markets.
The findings suggested a variety of explanations related to management forecast accuracy and/or bias.
Some studies confirmed similar results, while the others stay inconclusive. Thus it drew a call for systematic
review in this field. Meta-analysis collects and synthesizes results from individual studies to estimate an overall
effect size. This paper conducts a meta-analysis of management forecast by investigating empirical researchstudies to provide an integration of previous research accumulation. In this study, it is expected that metaanalysis will achieve a quantitative generalization of the association between management forecast
accuracy/bias and the determinants.

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Access to Nagoya University(Higashiyama Campus)

From Nagoya Station: Take the Subway Higashiyama Line to Motoyama Sta. (15 minutes),then transfer to the Subway Meijo Line to Nagoya Daigaku Sta. (Higashiyama Campus isjust off the subway exit.).
From Centrair (Central Japan International Airport): Take the Meitetsu Line to Kanayama Sta.
(30 min.), then transfer to the Subway Meijyo Line to Nagoya Daigaku Sta. (21 min.).

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Access to Graduate School of Economics

Subway Station“Nagoya Daigaku”
Subway “Nagoya Daigaku”
Exit 1

Graduate Schoolof Economics

ICES 2018
Conference Reception

Graduate School of Law

ICES 2018
Social Gathering
Center for Asian
Legal Exchange

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Conference rooms at Graduate School of Economics
1st Floor

ICES 2018
Headquarters

ICES 2018
Conference Reception

Refreshment room 1
Venue B

Venue A

Refreshment room 2
2nd Floor
Venue D

Venue C2018-04-02

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International Conference on Economic Structures 2018
Nagoya University, Japan, March 28-29, 2018
Local Organizing Committee
Akihiro NOGUCHI, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University
Jiro NEMOTO, Applied Social System Institute of Asia, Nagoya University
Keisuke NANSAI, National Institute for Environmental Studies
Makiko TSUKUI, School of Business and Commerce, Tokyo International University
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA, Applied Social System Institute of Asia, Nagoya University

Scientific Program Committee
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA, Applied Social System Institute of Asia, Nagoya University
Takashi YAGI, Graduate School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University
Mitsuo YAMADA, School of Economics, Chukyo University
Keiko NAKAYAMA, School of Economics, Chukyo University
Yoshifumi ISHIKAWA, Department of Policy Studies, Nanzan University
Ken ITAKURA, Faculty of Economics, Nagoya City University
Takatoshi WATANABE, Faculty of Economics, Aichi Gakuin University

Administrative Staff
Mayumi KIKUTA, Applied Social System Institute of Asia, Nagoya University
Organized by the Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)
Co-organized by Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University andApplied Social System Institute of Asia, Nagoya University
Contact: ICES_PAPAIOS@yahoo.co.jp
Web site: http://www.gakkai.ne.jp/papaios/en/index.html
ICES2018 has received a grant from Daiko Foundation.