zMessages from Departments and Centers of NILIM

Research themes at a time of reform

PhotoHASEGAWA Kou, Director
Airport Department(Keywords) Demand simulation, regional activation by airports, risk management, airport maintenance andmanagement
1. Discussion of the roles of aviation and airports
Fiscal 2009 was a difficult year for Japan’s aviationindustry. Or more precisely, it may have marked thebeginning of a difficult era.
The worldwide
recession that began with Lehman Brothers’ collapse
led to cooling demand that resulted in the failure ofJapan Airlines International Co., Ltd., a company thatwas operating with high expenses.
Amid
expectations that international aviation demand willgrow over the long term, particularly in Asia, as
globalization continues, one cannot escape the sensethat there is something incongruous about JAL’s being
forced to scale back its routes. It is therefore hopedthat JAL will compete its reform and make an early
fresh start.
Aviation serves as a public transport system.
Almost all passengers traveling long distances use
aviation. Aviation is also a valuable means of getting
around in the daily lives of people living on remoteislands and regions with poor overland transport.
Thus, the question of whether or not this means oftravel should be abandoned due to the businesscircumstances of airlines presents a problem. In fact,
the plan to bail out JAL is based on the belief that a
discontinuation of flights must not occur. Railway
companies and bus companies are similar in that they
have two aspects; i.e., they are both private companies
and public transport systems.
However, how
airlines—which are subject to international
competition and face unstable demand—should exist
presents an important topic for discussion.
On the other hand, airports are also a major topic ofdiscussion. Because demand influences how airlines
act, airports such as Kansai Airport face severe
management conditions when airlines curtail theirflights. Currently, discussion is focusing not only on
management problems but also on the question of how
to use the three airports in the Kansai area. Aviation
is a public transport system, and airports are public
transport infrastructure. Even internationally, it iscommon for regional airports to be operated withlanding fees combined with the general accounts oflocal governments. Because airports were originallybuilt to provide convenience for users and stimulate
the regional economy, rather than to earn money, it
makes no sense to talk about profitability.
Discussion is also underway regarding the use of
special accounts for nationally operated airports;

specifically, people are asking, “Who will bear thecosts of airport maintenance and operation?”
Several years have passed since it was said thatairports are moving away from an era of construction
to one of operation. No substantial construction of
new airports has begun during the past several years.
However, insufficient airport capacity in majormetropolitan areas, including the Tokyo metropolitanarea, continues to be a problem. Even in the Tokyo
metropolitan area, where airport functions are beingexpanded, there are limits to what can be achieved,
and therefore efforts are underway to find the best
possible way of using airport capacity.
The future airport strategy of the Ministry of Land,Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s Growth
Strategy Council focuses on the “open skies” approachand tourism. However, what will be needed tocontribute to these goals?
Regardless of thedirections the above-mentioned discussions take, there
are many issues that are essential to maintaining airtransportation.
Given these circumstances, theAirport Department sees the following points aspriority research topics.
2. Research on aviation networks and airport
management and operation- Development of demand simulation methods Demand forecasts are essential for aviation andairport policies. Although the Airport Department
has developed methods for predicting demand for airtransport, demand depends on the destinations andnumbers of routes that airlines establish. As wasmentioned above, route planning is based on not only
actual demand but also on airlines’ circumstances.
Thus, although realistic forecasting must take into
account airlines’ behavior, in an era of liberalization,in which routes may be taken over by other airlines, it
is impossible to consider the management
circumstances of each individual airline. However,as liberalization progresses under “open skies,” it islikely that airlines will gradually behave in patterns
that are more in line with market principles. At thevery least, it will be necessary to develop forecast
methods capable of taking into account market
principles-based behavior that are in addition to thecurrent demand projection methods. It is hoped that
this will raise the accuracy of pre-implementation
simulations of aviation and airport policies and lead tozMessages from Departments and Centers of NILIM
the formulation of more precise policies. If “openskies” gains momentum, it can be expected thatoverseas low-cost carriers (LCC) will enter Japan’s
market and that domestic LCC will become prominent.
This in turn will further complicate use of multiple
airports in major metropolitan areas. Thus far, thedepartment has put a model that considers airlines’
behavior to trial use in an attempt to estimate theimpact that policies to limit the number of flights at
multiple airports will have. However, improving themodel’s accuracy and expanding its scope ofapplication remain challenges to be tackled.
The department also intends to study possibilities
for routes to come into existence if small aircraft areused even at the regional level, and possibilities for theestablishment of new international routes toneighboring countries under the open skies policy.
Looking forward, the need for better simulation
technology will be required. This is because thefuture will demand not only airport construction thatmatches demand forecasts but also strategic
maintenance and operation that are based on demandforecasts.
3. Research on higher service levels at airports- Striving for airport-led tourism strategies andregional activation As aviation has become a mass transit system,
airport-related needs have become more diversified
and sophisticated. Examples of such needs include
barrier-free facilities, simplified check-in, and higher
security. At the same time, although airports are nottourist destinations in themselves, they are entryways.
Therefore, an airport plays a role in how visitors view
the surrounding region. While it is of course
important to enhance hospitality and guidance foroverseas visitors, promotion that makes use of themerits of each region and airport as a tourism strategy
is also important. Although it goes without sayingthat airport usage differs from airport to airport, andthat regional characteristics, geographical conditions,and economic scales vary from place to place, acertain degree of speculation is possible based on
traveler movement surveys. The Airport Department
hopes to propose tourism strategies that areappropriate for airports based on such speculation, as
one of the intentions behind the building of airports
should be regional revitalization.
4. Research concerning safe and secure airports
Regardless of what growth strategies are employedor who pays the bills, the building and maintenance ofsafe facilities form the basis of public transport
infrastructure. This point cannot be overemphasized.
Today, countermeasures against liquefaction of
runways are being implemented at major airports.
Airports in Japan, and particularly hub airports, wereconstructed by taking advantage of various specialtechnologies. This was due to a variety of factors,

including the fact that they had to be built in areas
with poor ground conditions or were constructed withmassive paved areas. In addition to the design
standards for new facilities it has formulated thus far,the Airport Department is currently urgently working
to draft an outline for repairs. The department is also
studying probability theory-based design methods thatare in line with a trend toward performance design offacilities.
As for non-infrastructure-related areas, thedepartment is engaged in research toward quickly
securing alternate routes if international air transporthubs become inoperable due to an earthquake or othersuch event. If there are deficiencies in the current
situation, immediate responses will become necessary.
This is important from the standpoint of maintaining
not only safety and security but also internationalcompetitiveness.
5. Research on management of airport assets
Like other forms of infrastructure, how to efficiently
maintain the functions of airport facilities that havebeen built thus far is a question that deserves attention.
Although the technologies involved here differ interms of content, what they strive to achieve is thesame. As expenditure for public works projects
shrinks, the need to repair infrastructure continues toincrease. It will therefore be necessary to overcome
various problems, including how to engage in routine
management that minimizes this need to the greatest
degree possible, and how to perform suchmanagement with minimum staffing. And, where thepossibility exists that repair costs will balloon as
infrastructure deteriorates with age, how should signsof deterioration be identified and what steps should
then be taken?
Appropriate response lowers
life-cycle costs, and implementing repairs that do notaffect operation is part of good maintenance andmanagement.
6. Conclusion
The truth is, the research topics described in thispaper are extensions of research undertaken thus far.
Although circumstances seem ready to undergo rapidchange, there does not appear to be any need for adramatic shift in facilities-related research themes ifthey are considered separately from issues concerning
airlines and bearing of airport expenses. In fact, we
who work in the Airport Division believe that the needto continue research in areas we have already targeted
as necessary has grown even greater.