●Research Trends and Results

Toward Urban Sustainability and Assessment of Future
Urban Images
KIUCHI Nozomu (Dr.(Eng.)), Head, Urban Planning Department, Urban Disaster Mitigation Division
NISHINO Hitoshi, Head, Urban Planning Department, Urban Facilities Division
SAKATA Tomohiko (Dr.(Eng.)), Senior Researcher, Urban Planning Department, Urban Planning Division(Key words) Population decline, urban structure, sustainability, prediction/assessment methods,
land use and transportation models

Study andpreparation ofalternative proposals

代替案の検討・作成

In the near future, the aim is to prepare and promote
1. Introduction
the wide use of a guideline to assessments of future
The Urban Planning Department is carrying out
images, in order to contribute to the application of“Research on assessment of future images ofthese research achievements by regional governments,
urban/rural regions during a period of population
etc. It has already been introduced at the Nationaldecline”, with the cooperation of the Research Center
Conference of Urban Planning Department Managersfor Land and Construction Management.
. Its
sponsored by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
purpose is to support the implementation of modulated
Transport and Tourism, as “an example of a Scenario
urban and regional policies typified by “compacttype Assessment Method” for proposed revision ofcities”, which will be sustainable under tight financial“Urban Planning Operational Guidelines”.
and environmental restrictions in local cities, where
the population is expected to continue to decline in the3. Conclusions
The use of assessment tools which were developedfuture, by developing assessment tools and methods
and the implementation of “Fuuture Urban Image
permitting a more rational selection of policies relatedAssessment”, will permit rational selection based onto future urban structures, by objectively comparing
objective quantitative comparisons of alternative
multiple alternative proposals consisting of groups ofproposals and allow the study of specific images ofpolicy measures1)2).
“compact cities” suited to each city. And by preparing
2. Outline of achievements of the researchalternate proposals and comparing the results during
Figure 1 shows the structure of the assessment tools
citizens’ participation deepen understanding of
which have been developed and an outline of the flow
desirable urban structures by citizens, leading toof assessment using the tools. The tools consist of agreater involvement of citizens in urban planning.
model which estimates the impact of alternative policy[Reference]measures on future urban structures, and a model1) K. Yamashita: City Renovation to Survive thewhich evaluates the estimated results, both of which
Depopulation and Super-aging Age, Annual
run on a personal computer.
Report of the NILIM, 2009.
As the Future Urban Structure Estimation Model, a2) N. Kiuchi et al.: Development of Assessment
land-use transportation model, which ise used in such
Method for Future Urban Visions in thecases overseas, is adopted, and introduces perspectives
Depopulating Period, SB11 Helsinki World
needed for the period of population decline, andresponds to a wide variety of entry data. The Future
Sustainable Building Conference, 2011.
Urban
Structure
Basic survey of
都市計画基礎
Assessment Process
Structure of Assessment Toolurban planning,
アセスメントの流れ
アセスメントツールの構造調査、ＰＴ調査
Evaluation Model,
and use of results
結果等を利用of PT survey etc.
on the other hand,
Data AssemblyCollecting
and processing
Preparation of
代替案設定
データの収集・加工
Processing
Inputdata入力
can calculate 36
input data for等データのalternatives
kinds of indices
作成と入力
Consideration of Planning
Future Estimation Model
将来都市構造予測モデル
施策オプションの作成
Options and Alternatives
spanning
fiveLand-use
Transportation Model
土地利用交通モデル
themes: daily life,
他のd l
Other
施策群の都
Estimation
予測
Estimate effectProjection of Futuresafety, environment,
土地利用交通Land-use
TransportModel
市構造へのofpolicies
UrbanStructure
モデル
将来都市構造の予測モデル
モデル
vitality, and cost.
影響予測
Alternatives
Case studies werecarried out of three
Future Evaluation Model
将来都市構造評価モデル
Evaluation of Future
Evaluate
代替案へのcities and regions
将来都市構造の評価
Urban StructureEnvironalternatives
暮らし
SafetyVitality
Cost
評価
QOL
安全
環境
活力
コスト
mentwithdiffering(QOL)
characteristics,
Display of est.
Decision of Alternative
予測・評価
confirming
their
将来都市構造の採択
Output(Calculation & Display)& eval. result
Planning Measures
出力（表示・集計）
結果の表示
effectiveness.
Analysis(prediction andevaluation)

解析（予測や評価）

Comparison ofresults

結果の比較

Decision on the
proposal to be
adopted

採用案の決定Figure 1. Image of Assessment and Outline of Tools