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Evaluation of major ASEAN logistics infrastructure projects

SHIBASAKI Ryuichi, Senior Researcher
Port and Harbor Department

1. Purpose of research
In 2007, ASEAN formulated projects for logistics
infrastructure as means of contributing to the development of
the entire region as well as multiple countries within the region.
These projects targeted roads (38), railroads (13), sea transport(20), airports (9), and logistics facilities (11). However, theselection of these projects was made qualitatively based oninterview surveys and locational relationships with majortransport corridors. This research project expands a multimodeinternational cargo flow model that was developed by theauthors to include land and sea transport for all of ASEAN, andapplies it toward quantitative ascertainment of the effects theprojects will have in reducing transport costs. It should be
noted that the research was carried out under a transport
logistics working group of the Japan-ASEAN Transport
Cooperation project, which is led by the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure and Transport’s Policy Bureau.
2. The model and envisioned scenario
The authors’ model is a traffic assignment model that selects
transport routes and ports for import/export based on cargotransport demand (OD cargo volume). The service levels of
various infrastructure forms—such as roads, railroads, and ports
and harbors—are inputted into the model, and link traffic
volume, volumes handled by ports and harbors (as aggregatedvalues), etc., are outputted.
Furthermore, future cargo transport demand for the year 2020
was separately predicted and inputted for simulation. This wasdone given the strong implication that projects will serve asinvestments for future economic development. Moreover, inthe area of international land transport, consideration was given
to a measure (Cross-Border Transport Agreement [CBTA])
intended to lessen resistance caused by cross-border transport,
which is a major obstacle because it requires customs
procedures, cargo transshipment, etc.
3. Simulation results(1) Impact on arriving/departing cargo for ASEAN as awhole
It was estimated that the overall amount of reduction intransport costs for arriving/departing ASEAN cargo that would
result from implementation of all projects and a regional CBTA
would be approximately 15.7 trillion yen per year (equivalent to8.8% of ASEAN’s total cargo transport costs). Moreover, thebenefits of land projects (62), sea transport projects (19), andCBTA were estimated to be approximately 8.0 trillion yen, 6.9
trillion yen, and 7.5 trillion yen, respectively. Differences inprojected land transport flow arising from whether or notprojects are implemented are shown in the figure below.
(2) Impact on individual countries
The table below shows the reduced transport cost benefit andrate of reduction against total transport costs forarriving/departing cargo for each country. Looking at theby-country effects of each policy, there are some cases in which,due to circumstances in each country, almost no effect isgenerated. On the other hand, if all policies are implemented
simultaneously, a reduction effect of at least 3 to 4% can beexpected. In other words, it is suggested that simultaneous
implementation of policies is important for ensuring that all
countries receive the benefits of policies that are implemented ina relatively fair manner and for formulation of agreements on
project implementation among countries of the region.
[Reference]
Shibasaki, Watanabe: “Higashi/Tonan Ajia Chiiki ni okeru
Maruchimodo Kokusai Butsuryu Moderu no Kochiku to Asean
Butsuryu Infura Shisaku no Hyoka,” NILIM Report No. 40, pg.
161，September 2009
Difference
in international cargo flow (container/year, 2020)
国際貨物フローの差異（台／年，2020）（プロジェクト実施ケースの結果－(Result when
projects implemented —プロジェクト非実施ケースの結果）
result when
projects not implemented)

Figure: Differences in land transport flow when projects areimplemented/not implemented
Table: Rate of transport cost reduction for arriving/departing cargo ofeach country
Country/region

JapanPhilippines
VietnamLaos
Cambodia
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
MyanmarIndonesia
BruneiWorld total
Arriving/departing
ASEAN cargo

When all measures
are implemented
simultaneously

When only sea
transport projects are
implemented

When only landtransport projects
are implemented

When only measures to reducecross-border resistance are
implemented

1.5%
3.7%
12.3%
22.6%
4.3%
12.9%
6.6%
6.8%
5.6%
12.8%
9.0%
1.9%

0.9%
2.3%
1.8%
2.1%
0.3%
7.1%
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
8.3%
0.0%
0.6%

1.2%
2.5%
7.1%
-0.2%
0.4%
10.6%
2.2%1.9%
1.5%
2.2%
0.9%
1.1%

0.5%
0.9%
5.4%
19.2%
2.8%
4.0%
6.2%
4.2%
3.6%
5.7%
7.8%
0.9%

8.8%

3.9%

4.5%

4.2%

Application of Research Results(Keywords) International logistics, infrastructure project, ASEAN, policy simulation