zMessages from Departments and Centers of NILIM Reconsidering Northeast Asian containerflow to North America

PhotoTAKAHASHI Hironao, Director
Port and Harbor Department(Keywords) Northeast Asia, international marine container flow, Sea of Japan
1. Annual Report 2009: Continuation of the backcover
The back cover of the last year’s Annual Report(2009) displayed trends in North America-boundcontainer flow from Northeast Asia as analyzed by thePort and Harbor Department (up to December 2008).
This analysis clearly demonstrates how flow to North
America dropped rapidly following the Lehman
Brothers’ collapse in September 2008. Figure 1
shows what happened afterwards. Flow from Japanbottomed out in May of last year, that from China in
February of last year, and that from South Korea inJanuary of last year; since then, flow from all three
countries has been growing. However, the reboundfrom Japan is weak compared to the other twocountries.
Such trade trends between Northeast Asia—andparticularly China—and North America will be an
important factor in the future economic growth of not
only Japan but the entire globe. Thus, it is importantto analyze such trends from a variety of standpoints.
For this reason, the Port and Harbor Department isanalyzing container cargo flows (such as those shownin Figure 1) as well as actual port calls bycontainerships. In the research described here, thedepartment newly analyzed the actual sailing ofcontainerships in the seas near Japan. Based on this,the department succeeded in ascertaining actual sailingof containerships through the Tsugaru Strait, forexample, and therefore sailing on Japan’s Sea of Japanside.

ChinaSouthKorea

2. Ascertaining actual sailing by containerships
Japan Coast Guard steadily established Automatic
Identification System (AIS) land stations in response
to a new regulation requiring that ships carry AIS.
Nationwide development of the AIS network wasattained when coverage of the seas south of Kyushu
was completed in June 2009. As a result, it has beenpossible to uniformly ascertain ship sailing in all
coastal areas of Japan since July 2009. With AIS
data supplied by Japan Coast Guard, the Port andHarbor department analyzed actual sailing ofcontainerships in seas near Japan using an AIS data
analysis system (NILIM-AIS) that was developed bythe department. Figure 2 shows containership tracks
for one week (18 to 24) in July 2009. It should be
noted that areas where actual observations werelacking were supplemented in the figure byNILIM-AIS.
(1) Large containerships (Panamax ship or larger)
Figures 3 and 4 show the results of an analysis offour-week periods for both eastbound and westboundsailing by containerships of Panamax size (Pmax) orlarger.
The results reveal that the share of ships
sailing in the Sea of Japan is roughly 40% for both
eastbound and westbound directions, and that, of theseships, the percentage of ships that do not stop in South
Korea is 20% or more in the eastbound direction and30% or more in the westbound direction. The results
also reveal that the share of ships that do not stop inContainerᣣᧄోၞships in allsea㪇㪐㪅㪎㪅㪈㪏䌾㪉㪋areas of Japan fromJuly
18 to 24, 2009䉮䊮䊁䊅⦁(corrected)
⵬ᱜ䈅䉍Japan

AprMayJunJulAug
Sep
Oct
NovDecJanFebMar
AprMayJun
JulAugSep
OctLehman Brothers’ collapse

Figure 1: Northeast Asia ψ North America
container flows

Analysis by NILIM’s NILIM-AIS system (with AIS data࿖✚⎇䈱㪥㪠㪣㪠㪤㪄㪘㪠㪪䈮䉋䉍⸃ᨆ 䋨䌁䌉䌓䊂䊷䉺䈲ᶏ਄଻቟ᐡឭଏ䋩provided by Japan Coast Guard)

Figure 2: Container ship trackszMessages from Departments and Centers of NILIM
Japan is 60% or more for eastbound ships and 40% ormore for westbound ships, and that the percentage ofships that do not stop in South Korea is 50% or morefor both eastbound and westbound directions.
(2) Oversized containerships (over-Panamax ships)
Figures 5 and 6 show the results of a similar
analysis for eastbound and westbound directions foroversized containerships that cannot pass through thePanama Canal (over Panamax: O-Pmax). Here, it isrevealed that, of containerships that are Pmax or larger,
up to roughly 70% are O-Pmax for both eastbound andwestbound directions.
3. Transport of Japan-China cargo on theChina-North America route
Looking at the results of 2 above, it is obvious that
China occupies the central position of the Northeast
Asia-North America route. Containerships plying
Northeast Asia-North America route number 10 per
day when both eastbound and westbound directions
are combined. However, only roughly half of theseships stop in Japan. Nonetheless, it is possible toview these voyages as being on the Japan-China route.
In other words, every day 10 containerships boundfor/leaving China pass Japan, and only half of them do
not stop.
Currently, Japan’s largest trading partner is China,
and thus it is thought that this route can be used as ameans of transport for Japan-China trade.
Traditionally, marine container transport to China has
been conducted by small- and medium-sized
containerships plying coastal routes, and routes thatstop at multiple ports have been the norm. However,having large high-speed ships on the North
America-China route stop by Japan may serve as a
new “idea” here. The key to realizing such aframework will be the question of whether or not thenumber of China-bound containers that can begathered will provide sufficient advantage to justify
large containerships’ stopping in Japan.
The Port and Harbor department intends to conduct
further analysis of this topic.
References
1) Takahashi, Hironao, “Clarification of State of Ship
Navigation on Seas Surrounding Japan to Ensure
Safety on the Sea,” Japan Policy Workshop, 1st
Annual Meeting, December 2009.

Seaof Japan route: 43%43%ᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝Seaof Japan route with no stopᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝ౝ䈪㖧࿖ᛮ᷼in South Korea (23%)
䇴23%䇵
No stop in Japan: 63%
ᣣᧄ63%
Nostop in ᛮ᷼
South Korea:56%
㖧࿖
56%
Nostop in ᛮ᷼Japan andSouthKorea:30%
ᣣ䊶㖧 ᛮ᷼ 30%

䋶䋵䋱䋵䋰
䋵䋵䋵䋰
䋱䋵

3 major ports䋵䋲䋵䋳䋰䋷䋰䋱䋵䋱䋵᧲ ⥶Eastbound䋹䋰Container ship size of Panamax (B 30 meters or more or 40,000 DWT or more) orlarger for Jul. 4 to 31, 2009) 5 unit: shipAnalysis by NILIM’s NILIM-AIS system (with AIS data provided by Japan CoastGuard)

Figure 3: Sailing by container ships (Pmax) (eastbound)
Seaof Japan route: 43%ᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝43%
Sea of Japan route with no stopᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝ౝ䈪㖧࿖ᛮ᷼in South Korea (31%)
䇴31%䇵
No stop in Japan: 46%
ᣣᧄᛮ᷼Korea:46%
Nostop in South
50%
Nostop in JapanSouth㖧࿖ᛮ᷼and50%
Korea: 17%䋶䋵ᣣ䊶㖧 ᛮ᷼ 17%

䋱䋵䋰䋷䋰

䋴䋵
3 major ports䋲䋰䋵䋱䋵䋷䋵䋲䋵䋱䋵䋲䋰䋱䋰⷏ ⥶䋸䋰

WestboundContainer ship size of Panamax (B 30 meters or more or 40,000 DWT or more)or larger for Jul. 4 to 31, 2009) 5 unit: shipAnalysis by NILIM’s NILIM-AIS system (with AIS data provided by Japan
Coast Guard)

Figure 4: Sailing by container ships (Pmax) (westbound)
O-Pmaxshare: 67%
O-PmaxᲧ67%
Sea of Japan route: 40%
ᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝40%
Seaof Japan routewith no stopᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝ౝ䈪㖧࿖ᛮ᷼in South Korea (25%)
䇴25%䇵
No stop in Japan: 60%
ᣣᧄNostop inᛮ᷼
South 60%
Korea: 55%
㖧࿖Nostop inᛮ᷼
Japan 55%
and SouthKorea:ᣣ䊶㖧30%
ᛮ᷼ 30%䋴䋰䋱䋰䋰䋴䋰䋳䋰
3 major ports䋱䋰䋲䋰䋰䋴䋵䋵

䋱䋵᧲ ⥶Eastbound䋵䋰Container ship size of Panamax (B 30 meters or more or 40,000 DWT or more)or larger for Jul. 4 to 31, 2009) 5 unit: shipAnalysis by NILIM’s NILIM-AIS system (with AIS data provided by Japan
Coast Guard)

Figure 5: Sailing by container ships (O-Pmax) (eastbound)
O-Pmaxshare: 73%
O-PmaxᲧ73%
Sea of Japan route: 45%ᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝 45%
Sea of Japan route with no stopᣣᧄᶏ⥶〝ౝ䈪㖧࿖ᛮ᷼in South Korea (20%)
䇴20%䇵
No stop in Japan: 45%ᣣᧄᛮ᷼
Nostop inSouth45%
Korea: 54%㖧࿖ᛮ᷼
Nostop inJapan54%
and Southᣣ䊶㖧9%ᛮ᷼ 9%
Korea:

䋵䋰䋱䋱䋰
䋵䋰

䋴䋰
䋱䋰
䋵
䋵䋰
䋱䋰

3 major ports

䋰
䋵

䋵

䋵䋵

⷏ ⥶Westbound䋱䋰Container ship size of Panamax (B 30 meters or more or 40,000 DWT or more)or larger for Jul. 4 to 31, 2009) 5 unit: ship
Analysis by NILIM’s NILIM-AIS system (with AIS data provided by Japan
Coast Guard)

Figure 6: Sailing by container ships (O-Pmax) (westbound)