‫ە‬Messages from Departments and Centers of NILIMReinforcing data collection, analysis, andapplication
Toward achievement evaluation of policy
objectives
SATO Hiroshi,
Director of the Road Department
1. Introducing policy objective-oriented project
evaluation
Immediately following the change in Japan’s
government, the Cabinet adopted a plan on “reformof budget compilation, etc.” in October 2009. Oneof the main pillars of this plan is “introduction of asystem for clear presentation of policy objectives.”
This system will clearly present the objectives ofpriority policies and provide for objective
verification of their achievement based on
established indices.
In response to this decision concerning all aspectsof government, MLIT has decided to introduce
policy objective-oriented project evaluation.
By
doing so, MLIT will strive to improve evaluation in
the form of comparative evaluation that is based on
concrete data after clarifying policy objectives andpresenting alternative proposals.
It will also
implement comparative evaluation-based project
evaluation beginning from the project planningstage. It began planning-stage evaluation on a trial
basis for certain MLIT-controlled projects during
FY2010, and in November 2010 it announced
projects in the rivers, roads, and ports and harbors
fields to be included in the trial.
2. Enhancement and application of increasingly
important basic data
Given today’s tight fiscal constraints, evaluation of
the policy achievements and thorough explanation of
the necessity and effects of projects and measures aredemanded in all areas, not just the kind of project
evaluation mentioned above. Thus, as part of thisapproach, MLIT will proceed with “management that
leads to positive results” in the roads field. Suchmanagement will prioritize items through selection
and concentration, and simultaneously seek tocomprehensively explain priorities and expected
effects based on objective indices.
More than ever before, this approach requires theresolution of various technical issues, among them“how to set objective evaluation indices” and “how toefficiently enhance data that will provide the basis forevaluation.”

3. The 3 roles NILIM will be expected to playNILIM’s roles in supporting government
administration through technical policy research
toward addressing such policy needs can be largely
classified into the following three areas:(1) Establishment of efficient data collection methods
Questions that must be answered regarding basic data
include how to efficiently collect “useable” data
having the required accuracy, and how toappropriately supplement missing data. Although thework of providing answers here may not be very
glamorous, it forms the foundation for everything
thereafter and requires considerable effort. Anotherextremely important aspect is “arranging data to match
application strategies.” In cooperation with MLIT,
regional development bureaus, local governments, andother concerned bodies, NILIM is moving forwardwith studies for envisioning application in actualoperations—specificallyroadconstruction,construction, and policy management—from the datacollection stage.
(2) Effective strategies for use of data by project
implementers
If data are set, the next question becomes how to apply
them to actual operations. In the same manner
described above, NILIM is working with project
implementers from the data collection stage to study
and propose concrete application strategies andapplication templates.
(3) Technical policy research (policy support)
Finally, as a research institute engaged in technicalpolicy research, NILIM is identifying new issues andilluminating phenomena in the road policy field basedon scientific data analysis, and advancing research on
its own function as an organization that provides
policy support.
4. Specific approaches
Typical examples of specific approaches that
NILIM is pursuing in accordance with its roles aresummarized below.
(1) Efforts to realize smoother road traffic flow
By themselves, conventional road traffic censusesthat are conducted every five years do not provide thedata needed to carefully select locations having majortraffic congestion or other problems and to implement
priority countermeasures. To address this situation,
NILIM is working to ascertain traffic conditions,‫ە‬Messages from Departments and Centers of NILIM

formulate relevant measures, and analyze theeffectiveness of countermeasures based on datacollected 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Here,NILIM is focusing its attention on data obtained fromconstant traffic volume measurement using vehicle
detectors and data concerning probe travel time using
car navigation systems.
Thus far, NILIM has verified the density andprecision of data gathering, and confirmed that thedata have extremely high application potential.
Accordingly, it is now beginning full-scale datagathering and application. Examples here include
data application in efforts to ascertain effectiveness(e.g., improvement of travel time on ordinary roads,etc.) in a pilot project conducted to make expressways
toll-free ,which started in June of last year, and to
determine effects realized by the Daini Keihan Road,
which was opened in March of last year. At the sametime, NILIM is formulating various proposals. Oneinvolves the presentation of new performanceindicators that are arrived at by contrasting periods ofcongestion with periods of no congestion and thencalculating lost time. And another seeks to get apicture of lower speeds caused by snow and ice during
winter and then apply the results to evaluations.
An example of policy support-related research byNILIM itself is development of methods forevaluating travel time reliability. Here, NILIM willdevelop methods that focus not only on average travel
time, which is the conventional marker, but also onreliability (accuracy) of travel time by taking
fluctuations in travel time into account. It also seeks
to make permit estimation of travel time reliability
impacts in order to evaluate individual projects.
(2) Road traffic safety
Countermeasures that focus on arterial road sections
having high accident rates are effective. Thus, just as
it is in seeking to realize smoother road traffic flow,
NILIM recognizes that it must continuously
accumulate data on traffic accidents and theimplementation of safety measures, as it also
simultaneously selects locations for countermeasureimplementation, formulates countermeasures, andevaluates their results. Thus, it is accumulating
accident data and safety measures data that will form
the foundation for the above-mentioned activities witha fairly high degree of accuracy compared to the effort
to realize smoother road traffic flow that waspresented in (1) above.
By analyzing such accident data, NILIM ispreparing methods for extracting zones deemed tohave high urgency due to frequent accidents, andanalyzing candidate countermeasures (i.e., a“countermeasures menu”) that may be effective indealing with the characteristics of each zone. NILIM
uses the results to provide road managers with toolsthat help them formulate traffic safety measures.

NILIM recognizes that it must further fine-tune thesetools based on continuing data accumulation.
At the same time, NILIM knows that ordinarily data
must be accumulated for around four years in order toproperly ascertain accident conditions for evaluationof countermeasure effectiveness. This makes thework of accumulating data a long-term endeavor.
Thus, NILIM will study methods to enable evaluationof countermeasure effectiveness in a shorter period oftime by grasping changes in traffic behavior (e.g.,conditions that inhibit speed, vehicle convergence,etc.). Moreover, it will continue its studies on
methods for scientific ascertainment and analysis byapplying travel speed data, etc., obtained from video
images (i.e., image processing technology) and car
navigation systems.
These methods will be inaddition to ordinary onsite survey methods.
(3) Bridge maintenanceRegular inspections (taking place once every 5years) of MLIT-controlled roads that are inaccordance with a proposed bridge inspection
standard prepared by NILIM began in 2004.
Taking the results of these inspections, NILIM also
proposed a standard for collection of road bridge
inspection data that has greatly prioritized andsimplified content for use by municipalities. This
standard is already being applied by manymunicipalities.
Moreover, by analyzing thecharacteristics and advancement of deteriorationand damage, NILIM is drafting a standard forspecific inspection of ancillary structures as well as
for inspection and survey of fatigue in steel platedecks. These items are being used as referencematerials in bridge management.
Given that a round of detailed regular inspectionsof MLIT-controlled roads has been concluded,
NILIM is moving forward with an analysis of theaccumulated data. It is using the results to revise
the inspection standard in order to make it more
efficient and rational, improve the accuracy ofdegradation predictions for concrete slabs andpre-stressed concrete structures, and formulate a
new specific inspection standard for steel
component fatigue and bridge pier scour. It is also
reinforcing the foundation for appropriate responseto the aging of road bridges, which is expected toaccelerate in the future.
5. Conclusion
This article presented an outline, within the scope
allowed by space limitations, of representative
approaches being taken by NILIM. For details,
please visit the website of the relevant NILIM
department.
In policy support-related research,reciprocal linkage with actual fields is essential.
Specifically, such linkage involves trial applicationof the achievements of ongoing development to thefront lines of actual operation, and then feeding‫ە‬Messages from Departments and Centers of NILIM

back the results to further research anddevelopment. The author wishes to thank MLIT,
regional development bureaus and offices, local
governments, expressway companies, and all else
concernedfor
theirconsistentlyvaluable
cooperation, and humbly requests their continued
support and guidance in the future.
References
Doro Kotsu Deta no Shushu-Bunseki no Arata-naTenkai (published in Technical Note of NILIM No.
614)