シリア国内避難民と住民の国際関係認識

The Recognition in International Relations ofSyrian IDPs and citizens
浜中

新吾 （龍谷大学法学部教授）
Shingo HAMANAKA, Ph.D.
Professor of Middle East Politics, Ryukoku University,Kyoto

Research Question• How to describe the politicalorder in the Middle East fromthe viewpoint of Syria?
• How to grasp the image offoreign involvement in theSyrian Conflict?

Research Method• We need a visualization method to evaluate how muchcontribution of each country to the world order.
• Aoyama and Hamanaka developed such a method tenyears ago and have made a contribution to develop anew approach in IR studies empirically and theoretically.
• This is the Political Mental Map!!

What can we do?
• We inquire the salient features of recognition in theinternational relations of Syrian IDPs and citizens in themethod of the comparative political mental maps.
• We also study the correlation between a factor of thepolitical mental map and a political ideology byregression analysis in order to make the cognitive
structure of the IDPs clear.

The distribution of power: Aoyama(2017)• The First Camp• US, Europe, KSA, Qatar, Turkey• They support dissidents on the ground of
the protection of human rights.
• Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

The distribution of power: Aoyama(2017)• The Second Camp• Russia, Iran, China• They support the Asad regime on theground of respect for national sovereignty.

Strategic Perspective of the U.S.
• Three main sets of challengers—the revisionist powers ofChina and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North
Korea, and transnational threat organization… areactively competing against the United States and ourallies and partners. (National Security Strategy 2017: 25.)• …the United States can promote stability and a balanceof power and favor the U.S. interests (in the Middle East).
(National Security Strategy 2017: 49.)

Strategic Perspective of RussiaСтратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации

• In international relations, the role of the force factor is not
reduced. (section 14)• Ensuring national interests is promoted by an active foreign
policy of the Russian Federation aimed at creating a stable andstable system of international relations based on … theprinciples of equal rights … as the central element of such asystem of international relations. (section 87)• The process of formation of a new polycentric model of theworld order is accompanied by an increase in global andregional instability. (section 13)

How to draw the political mental map• A factor analysis of the response to following questions• Q7: To what extent do you believe that the following countries
or organizations will contribute to the improvement of livingcondition?
• Q8: … to the rehabilitation of internally displaced persons• Q9: … working within Syria during the crisis have supplied thecitizens’ necessities?
• Q10: … to invest in Syria?
• Q13: … to participate in the reconstruction of Syria?

Figure 1: Evaluation of each state to stability in Syria
Syrian IDPs 2018
4.00

3.59
3.50

3.30

3.29

2.95
3.00

2.74
2.54

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00

2.53

2.53

2.46

2.38

2.32

2.27

2.21

2.16

2.14

Sympathy to the Second Camp

Figure 2: The Political Mental Map of IDPs 2018

Sympathy to the First Camp

Figure 3: Evaluation of each country to system stability
Syrian citizens 2017
4.5

4.0
4.0

3.9
3.5

3.5
3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

1.8

1.8

1.81.7

1.7

1.6

Sympathy to the Second Camp

Figure 4: The Political Mental Map of Syrian Citizens 2017

Sympathy to the First CampComparison: similarity and difference
Syrian IDPs 2018

Syrian citizens 2017

4.00

4.5
4.0

3.59

3.50
3.00

4.0

3.30 3.29

3.5
3.5

2.95
2.74
2.54 2.53 2.53

2.50
2.00

3.9

2.46

3.0
2.38

2.32 2.27

2.21 2.16

2.14

2.5

2.0

1.50

1.5

1.00

1.0

2.7 2.7

2.5 2.5

1.8 1.8 1.8
1.7 1.7
1.6

Comparison: similarity and differenceComparison• The order of countries in IDPs is similar with it inSyrian citizens.
• ⇒⇒Both have similar image of the world order• The variance of evaluations in IDPs is smaller thanthat in Syrian citizens.
• ⇒⇒IDPs expect international assistance from not
only the second camp but also the first camp.

Regression Analysis 1: DV-sympathy to 1st camp

Figure 5: Result of regression on the first factor

Why Political Islam has a positive marginal effect?

Figure 6: Marginal Effect of Political Islam on the first factor

Secularism has a negative marginal effectFigure 7: Marginal Effect of Secularism on the first factor

Regression Analysis 2: DV-sympathy to 2nd camp

Figure 8: Result of regression on the second factor

Syrian nationalism has a positive marginal effectFigure 9: Marginal Effect of Syrian Nationalism on the second factor

Liberalism has a negative marginal effectFigure 10: Marginal Effect of Liberalism on the second factor

Conclusion• Both IDPs and Syrian
citizens do not evaluate
the behavioral principleof the first camp; R2P.
• They regard thebehavior of the firstcamp as power
projection.

Syrian IDPs 2018
4.00
3.59
3.50

3.30 3.29
2.95

3.00

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00

2.74
2.54 2.53 2.53 2.46
2.38 2.32
2.27 2.21
2.16 2.14

Conclusion• Correlation between
sympathy to the 1st camp
and Political Islam ⇒⇒⇒because Turkey, Qatar,and KSA support Islamist
dissidents. The worldorder is partly explainedby Islamist ideologies.

Conclusion• Correlation between
sympathy to the 2ndcamp and Syrian
nationalism ⇒⇒⇒Qaumiya identity isconnected with theactors for the BoP.