International Conference on Economic Structures 2021

ICES 2021

3rd International Conference on Economic Structures
Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies(PAPAIOS)

18-19 March, 201920-21 March, 2021
Kobe International House, Japan(Address: Kobe International House, 8-1-6 Gokou-douri, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 651-0087, Japan)

Table of Contents
Timetable

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Program3

Abstract

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20 March (Saturday)
A-1 Environment, Resource and Energy[Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 10:30-12:00
B-1 International Economy and International Development 1[Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
C-1 Regional Input-Output Analysis 1[Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
Plenary Session[Venue P: Main Hall] 13:30-16:50
21 March (Sunday)
B-2 International Economy and International Development 2[Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
C-2 Regional Input-Output Analysis 2[Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
A-3 Towards Carbon Neutrality: Chinese and American Strategies[Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 13:00-15:00
B-3 Others 1[Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 13:00-15:00
C-3 Others 2[Venue C: Room 805] 13:00-15:00

Floor Map

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Timetable
March 20 (Saturday), 2021
1st session

Venue A
Room 901 & 902

Venue B
Room 802 & 803

Venue CRoom 805

10:30-12:00

A-1
Environment

B-1
Int'l Economy 1

C-1
Regional I-O 1

2nd session

Venue P
Mail Hall

13:30-16:50

Plenary Session

Venue B
Room 802 & 803

Venue CRoom 805

B-2
Int'l Economy 2

C-2
Regional I-O 2

March 21 (Sunday), 2021
3rd session

Venue A
Room 901 & 902

10:30-12:00

4th session

Venue A
Room 901 & 902

Venue B
Room 802 & 803

Venue CRoom 805

13:00-15:00

A-3
Carbon Neutrality

B-3
Others 1

C-3
Others 2

Speakers’ surnames are shown in capital letters.

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Program
20 March (Saturday) [Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 10:30-12:00
A-1 Environment, Resource and Energy
Chair: Makoto SUGINO (Yamagata University)
Presentation 1
Title: An analysis of the carbon taxation method using the 2011 input-output table forthe next-generation energy system
Author: Ayu WASHIZU (Waseda University)
Co-Author: Satoshi NAKANO (Nihon Fukushi University)
Presentation 2
Title: Examination of Green Leontief Paradox: Evidence from bilateral trade between
Vietnam to China, Japan, and the USA
Author: Tuyet Le VO (Nagoya University)
Presentation 3
Title: Effects of a nation-wide carbon pricing scheme on regional industry
Author: Makoto SUGINO (Yamagata University)
20 March (Saturday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
B-1 International Economy and International Development 1
Chair: Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)
Presentation 1
Title: Fiscal Decentralization and Structural Involution in Developing Countries
Author Bangkit Aditya WIRYAWAN (Nagoya University)
Presentation 2
Title Exploitation of the Working Class with the Burden of Financial Services
Author Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)
Presentation 3
Title: Community detection in international industrial linkages based on world inputoutput tables using a stochastic block model
Author: Kosuke KATO (National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)
20 March (Saturday) [Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
C-1 Regional Input-Output Analysis 1
Chair: Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)
Presentation 1
Title: The differential regional impacts of monetary policy and the role of regional
structure: New evidence from
Author: Harry AGINTA (Nagoya University)
Co-Author: Masakazu SOMEYA (Nagoya University)
Presentation 2
Title: Networks in Japanese Regional Agro-food Supply Chain
Author: Kiyotaka ISHIKAWA (The University of Tokyo)

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20 March (Saturday) [Venue P: Main Hall] 13:30-16:50
Plenary Session
Opening of the Plenary Session (13:30-13:40)
Taiji HAGIWARA (Kobe University)
Presidential speech (13:40-14:20)
Chair: Taiji HAGIWARA (Kobe University)
Title: Cost Structure Analysis: its application to 2015 Input-Output Table for Japan
Author: Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)
Special Session on Cultural Satellite Account (CSA) (14:20-15:20)
Chair: Taiji HAGIWARA (Kobe University)
Title: Current status and challenges of Cultural Satellite Account (CSA) Compilationin Japan
Reporter1: KAWAMURA Tadashi (Agency for Cultural Affairs)
Reporter2: FUJIKAWA Kiyoshi (Aichi Gakuin University)
Co-Authors: MAKI Keiji (Agency for Cultural Affairs), HAKUSHI Natsuko (Agency for
Cultural Affairs), KAWAI Mitsuo (CDI Inc.)
Discussion: YAGI Tadashi (Doshisha University)
Announcement of the 30th Anniversary Publication (15:20-15:40)
FUJIKAWA Kiyoshi (Aichi Gakuin University)
Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)
Coffee Break (15:40-16:00)
Klein Prize Awards Ceremony and Awardee Speech (16:00-16:45)
Chair: Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)
Title: The role of small and medium sized enterprises in the Dutch economy: ananalysis using an extended supply and use table
Speaker：Oscar LEMMERS (Statistics Netherlands)
Authors: Stephen CHONG (Statistics Netherlands), Rutger HOEKSTRA（MetricsForTheFuture.com）, Oscar LEMMERS (Statistics Netherlands), Ilke Van
BEVEREN (De Nederlandsche Bank), Marcel Van Den BERG(Statistics
Netherlands), Ron Van Der WAL(Statistics Netherlands) and Piet VERBIEST(Statistics Netherlands)

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21 March (Sunday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
B-2 International Economy and International Development 2
Chair: Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)
Presentation 1
Title: The Impact of Japan’s ODA on Economic Growth in Southeast Asia
Author: Rido THATH (Meiji Gakuin University)
Presentation 2
Title: Trade Frictions: Who Will Gain?
Author: Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)
Presentation 3
Title: How Does Cambodia Attract Relative Share of Inbound Tourists from ASEAN?
Author: Hor CHANTHA (Nagoya University)
21 March (Sunday) [Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
C-2: Regional Input-Output Analysis 2
Chair: Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)
Presentation 1
Title: Impact analysis of future consumption changes on the municipal economy in a
depopulating society using the2011 Aichi prefecture’s inter-municipal input-output
table
Author: Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)
Presentation 2
Title: Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: A Firm-Level Analysis of
Bangladesh in Comparison with Vietnam
Author: Md ARIF-UR-RAHMAN (Ritsumeikan University)
21 March (Sunday) [Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 13:00-15:00
A-3 Organized Session:
Towards Carbon Neutrality: Chinese and American Strategies
Chair: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)
Discussant1: Soocheol LEE (Meijo University)
Discussant2: Tadashi HAYASHI (Shiga Prefecture University)
Presentation 1
Title: Structural changes in embodied CO2 trade due to US return to Paris
Author: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)
Co-Author: Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University)
Presentation 2
Title: US and Chinese power selection and usefulness of international emissions
trade
Author: Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University)
Co-Author: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)
Presentation 3
Title: Optimal location for large-scale wind farms in China
Author: Jiayang WANG (Renewable Energy Institute)
Presentation 4
Title: Initial allocation of emissions trading among sub-regions in China
Author: Yiyi JU (University of Tokyo)
Co-Author: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)

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21 March (Sunday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 13:00-15:00
B-3 Others 1
Chair: Ken ITAKURA (Nagoya City University)
Presentation 1
Title: The Economic Impact of Technology Improvement, Shipping Routes andEconomic Partnership Agreement: An Approach of GTAP Model
Author: Michael HUANG (Ocean Policy Research Institute)
Presentation 2
Title: Incorporating a Sub-Region into a Global CGE Model
Author: Ken ITAKURA (Nagoya City University)
21 March (Sunday) [Venue C: Room 805] 13:00-15:00
C-3 Others 2
Chair: Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)
Presentation 1
Title: Firm Heterogeneity to be incorporated in Japan’s SNA IOT
Author: Satoru HAGINO (Statistics Commission Office)Co-authors: Shinji TAHARA (Chiba University of Commerce), Jiyoung KIM(Okayama University)
Presentation 2
Title: Does Education Reduces Wage Inequality? Evidence from HIES data in
Bangladesh
Author: Ileas Mia MOHAMMAD (Ritsumeikan University)
Co-author: Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)

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Abstract
20 March (Saturday) [Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 10:30-12:00
A-1 Environment, Resource and Energy

Chair: Makoto SUGINO (Yamagata University)

Presentation 1
Ayu WASHIZU (Waseda University), Satoshi NAKANO (Nihon Fukushi
University)
An analysis of the carbon taxation method using the 2011 input-output table forthe next-generation energy system
An input–output table for the analysis of a next-generation energy system (IONGES)
was created. This IONGES effort incorporates renewable-energy sectors into the 2011
input–output table published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,Japan. The sectors incorporated in the IONGES data cover power generation facility
construction sectors and power generation sectors for 15 types of renewable energy.
The IONGES data consist of the following two types of table: a table incorporating
renewable-energy sectors as they existed in 2011 (2011 IONGES) and a table
incorporating renewable-energy sectors up to the composition ratio assumed in 2030
(2030 IONGES). We designed the table in anticipation of future changes in renewableenergy dissemination policies. IONGES was used to compare the input structure ofeach renewable-energy sector and each supply chain brought about by it. The ripple
effect of the supply chain on entire economy was also visualized as a “unit structure.”
Using the IONGES data, we analyzed the effects of the following three carbon taxation
methods on economic society: (i) Upstream taxation, (ii) Midstream taxation, and (iii)
Downstream taxation. As a result, in the upstream taxation method, the effects of one
unit of carbon tax are concentrated in goods such as energy goods, while in thedownstream taxation method, the effects are relatively dispersed. We also calculated
the taxable CO2 emissions induced by each final demand. Compared with the
upstream method, in the midstream and downstream methods, the CO2 emissions
induced by each final demand are distributed more evenly across various goods andservices. Compared to the downstream taxation method, upstream taxation leads tohigher CO2 emissions from exports, but lower CO2 emissions from household
consumption. This is because energy-intensive industries, such as machinery with highexport ratios, have high CO2 emission intensity when the upstream method is applied.
Presentation 2
Tuyet Le VO (Nagoya University)
Examination of Green Leontief Paradox: Evidence from bilateral trade between
Vietnam to China, Japan, and the USA
Along with the increase of international trade, the production of goods and services
has become multi-national, indicating the possibility of exporting environmental

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pollution overseas. This study aims to examine whether Vietnam has been transferring
CO2 emissions to their top three trade partners, China, Japan, and the USA throughbilateral trade or taking over CO2 emissions overseas in its own country, and further,whether such a pattern has changed from 2005 to 2015. Employing Single – Country
Input-Output table and Multi-Country Input-Output Table from EORA database. The
results show that: i) Vietnam is not a Pollution Haven in the bilateral trade with China
if the domestic emission coefficient was employed. This result is considered as Green
Leontief Paradox, which similar to the result of Dietzenbacher and Mukhopadhyay inthe case of India; ii) Japan and the United States of America have avoided domestic
CO2 emission by importing goods and service from Vietnam from 2005 to 2015;
however, this result cannot be revealed without using the Multi-Country Input-Output
table; iii) There is the trend of shifting the pollutant from North-South Country to SouthSouth Country. Finally, from the volume of CO2 divided by sectors, policymakers may
consider which sectors generate high pollutant. As a result, the policy implication could
be a levy on carbon tax with environmentally unfriendly sectors.
Presentation 3
Makoto SUGINO (Yamagata University)
Effects of a nation-wide carbon pricing scheme on regional industry
Carbon pricing policies, such as emission trading and carbon taxes, has been
implemented in many countries to tackle climate change. Carbon prices increases costof carbon emitting energy, which leads to changes in technology and/or fuel switchingin the long-run. In the short-run, however, technology or fuel switching is difficult. Thus,
production costs are expected to raise, which could reduce the firms’ profits and/orinternational competitiveness. Previous studies have focused on the effects of carbon
pricing on the entire country/region and the impacts on trade. Thus, national level orinternational input-output tables have been put to use, assuming that the effect ofcarbon pricing policies are equally distributed within the country. However, industries
are not distributed equally within a country. In other words, carbon pricing policies
effects regions differently according to the industrial structure of each region. In thisstudy, we will investigate the effects of a hypothetical carbon pricing scheme that 1)
sets a 4,000 Yen/t-CO2 on all CO2 emissions and 2) sets a carbon tax that raises theeffective carbon rate of each industry above 4,000 Yen/t-CO2. We find that the carbon
price will raise the cost of production for energy intensive industries more than nonenergy intensive industries. However, the cost increase differs between regions, due
to region specific industrial structure. If we assume that firms alter production fromhigh-cost regions to low-cost regions, then income in regions that have higher than
average cost increase will decrease. From the equity perspective, the results suggestthat a nation-wide uniform carbon price will increase disparity among region. Thus, acarbon pricing scheme that increases the average effective carbon rate above 4,000
Yen/t-CO2 while equalizing the cost increase between regions for the same industry.
This can be achieved by implementing a carbon tax that is regional and industry
specific.

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20 March (Saturday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
B-1 International Economy and International Development 1

Chair: Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)

Presentation 1
Bangkit Aditya WIRYAWAN (Nagoya University)
Fiscal Decentralization and Structural Involution in Developing Countries
Fiscal decentralization has been labeled as the silent change in world's development.
The policy was first associated with developed countries, but in the last three decades
numerous developing countries had also been implemented it upon strong advocationfrom international organizations. The basic notion of this policy is to increase growthand equality in country's sub-national level as well as promote openness andaccountability. This in turn would lead to productive structural transformation whencombined with industrial policy. However my finding suggests that the reversal is true.
Using data derived from IMF's Government Financial Statistics for the period between
1995 and 2017, it is found that fiscal decentralization has led to structural involution
where the output share of agriculture increased at the cost of declining share of othersectors, particularly industry sector. Result is particularly robust for low and lowermiddle income country group as well as with different estimation method. The
phenomenon goes in line with premature decentralization narrative, stating among
others the prior need of a strong institutional capacity at the local level in order tomitigate rent-seeking and local elite capture. With the institution set at the local level,
vertically coordinated industrial policy between the central and the local government
can kick in to support productive transformation.
Presentation 2
Takahiko HASHIMOTO (Ritsumeikan University)
Exploitation of the Working Class with the Burden of Financial Services
This paper examines the consumption structure of workers and households in fivedeveloped countries (the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Japan,
Germany, and France) and one developing country (China) using the labor allocation
approach and the final demand component for the years between 2000 and 2014. We
compared between the Gross Domestic Expenditure approach and the total labor
allocation approach. Then, we found the advantage of total labor allocation. Thisadvantage is that each labor allocation is the independent variable against relative
prices. Thus, we could capture the features of economic structures among countries
that had different national currencies. The results show that there are two types ofdecreasing essential consumption levels for workers and households. First, indeveloped countries, the labor allocation for final consumption expenditures byhouseholds decreased moderately. Second, in China, the labor allocation for grosscapital formation and net exports increased rapidly between 2000 and 2014. These
two cases could be classified as traditional exploitation. Third, the main conclusion ofthis paper is that the burden of financial services and insurance activities on theworking class and households in the US and the UK is considerably higher than inother countries. As a result, actual household consumption declined and exploitation

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increased. In short, a part of labor allocation was transferred from household income
to financial and insurance services. This transfer could be classified as a second typeof exploitation. In this paper, we clarified the degree of burden imposed on households
by financial intermediation and insurance services.
Presentation 3
Kosuke KATO (NARO)
Community Detection in International Industrial Linkages Based on World InputOutput Tables Using a Stochastic Block Model
Due to the current progress of international trade under the various regional trade
agreements such as FTAs, EPAs, and TPPs, the linkages between international
industries are becoming more complicated. It is important to discover suchinternational industrial linkages to analyze the time series changes in past international
trade relationships and to predict future international trade relationships. Input-output
tables provide widely used data for the analysis of industrial structure. The input-output
table records the amounts of intermediate transactions, value-added, final demand,
etc., between each industry that consists of inputs and outputs, and the intermediatetransactions are in matrix format. Intermediate transactions between industries thatshow input relationships can be regarded as adjacency matrices in graph theory.
Therefore, the industry is the node, the intermediate transaction is the link, and thetransaction amount is the weight. Furthermore, the asymmetrical relationship between
input and demand is also considered to be directed. In this paper, we use the stochastic
block model to analyze the community detection of international industrial linkages
based on the international input-output table. As a result, we clarified the existence ofsome stable communities. The stable communities established the stability of therelationship of domestic industries detected from the international industrial linkage.

20 March (Saturday) [Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
C-1 Regional Input-Output Analysis 1

Chair: Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan University)

Presentation 1
Harry AGINTA (Nagoya University), Masakazu SOMEYA (Nagoya University)
The differential regional impacts of monetary policy and the role of regional
structure: New evidence from Indonesian provinces
Monetary policy transmission mechanism has always been an important topic in thefield of monetary theory and practice. In recent years, analyzing monetary policy
transmission on regional economy has gained an increasing interest, mainly driven by
two developments. First, given the heterogeneity in regional economic structure, there
has been a critical question that ask whether a common monetary policy will havedifferential impacts across regions. Second, the access to regional level data have
improved substantially. Motivated by the same background, this study analyzes
regional impacts of monetary policy in Indonesia, a developing country that well-knownwith its diversified regional economic characteristic. Consistent with the goal ofIndonesian monetary policy that aims price stability, our study focuses on the responseof regional inflation to national monetary policy. In doing so, we implement a two-steps

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analysis. First, we measure the regional impacts of monetary policy by using factoraugmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model, a new approach in recent literature.
Second, we investigate the influencing factors of differential regional impacts ofmonetary policy. The results from FAVAR model show substantial cross-regionalvariation in regional inflation responses to monetary policy, both in magnitude andtiming, suggesting the necessity to scrutinize regional dimension of monetary policy
impacts. Next, we shall utilize logit model to evaluate the role of regional economic
structure in affecting the differential effects of monetary policy. In particular, the relevantmeasures of regional structure will be evaluated; the share of interest sensitive industry
and finance sector to regional GDP (the role of industry mix), the share of foreign importto regional GDP, and labor productivity. Not only contributing to the literature on
differential regional effects of monetary policy, more importantly, our results also attract
attention to consider an effective national monetary policy that appraises the diverse
nature of Indonesian regions.
Presentation 2
Kiyotaka ISHIKAWA (The University of Tokyo)
Networks in Japanese Regional Agro-food Supply Chain
Network linkage is important even in evaluating aggregated macroeconomic indicators
when input-output networks across industries are asymmetric and respond differently
to demand shocks (e.g. international trades) or supply shocks (e.g. TFP changes).
However, most network linkage studies implicitly assume unit elastic substitution
between intermediates or production factors, following Cobb-Douglas function systems
in the original concept of Acemoglu et al. (2012), which is improbable especially instudying supply side issues. Besides, network linkage model has not been empiricallyverified in interregional contexts. Provided asymmetric input-output network linkagesin agricultural and food industries, in different structures over Japan’s domestic 9
regions, this study identifies propagation channels of productivity shocks acrossindustries and regions. Since regional agriculture often connects to the local foodprocessing industries in its supply chain, the shocks are supposed to propagate intraregionally. Based on the framework by Baqaee and Farhi (2019), this study
incorporates dynamic network linkage where network structure (or input-output
structure in the data basis) could be changed by the shocks, with nested CES function
system. The dynamics of network structure affect macroeconomic performances in thecase of elastic/inelastic substitution of intermediates caused by sectoral productivity
growth, which depends on each sector’s production technology. This study empiricallyestimates the corresponding parameters and by incorporating them into the model
calculates the intensity of propagation in multiple years. The results show withstatistical significance that among agro-food sectors, the shocks propagate within theregion more intensively than across to the others. Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V. M.,
Ozdaglar, A., & Tahbaz ‐ Salehi, A. (2012). The network origins of aggregate
fluctuations. Econometrica, 80(5), 1977-2016. Baqaee, D. R., & Farhi, E. (2019). The
macroeconomic impact of microeconomic shocks: beyond Hulten’s Theorem.
Econometrica, 87(4), 1155-1203.

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20 March (Saturday) [Venue P: Main Hall] 13:30-16:50
Plenary Session
Opening of the Plenary Session (13:30-13:40)
President's speech (13:40-14:20) Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)
Cost Structure Analysis: its application to 2015 Input-Output Table for JapanThe aim of this paper is to apply cost structure analysis to 2015 Japan Input Output Table. If
we read input-output table vertically, we can grasp the direct cost structure of industries
measured in terms of money. The cost structure analysis of Yagi (2017) enables us to measure
the direct and indirect cost structure of industries in terms of unit of standard labour. Yagi (2017)
assumed a uniform rate of profit throughout industries. In this paper, we will introduce a modelwith different sectoral rates of profits. In our cost structure analysis, the value of labour is kept
constant when the rate of profit varies, and so the standard labour works as an invariable
standard of value. In our cost structure analysis, the wage share measured in terms of standard
net product is given exogenously. The sectoral rates of profits are given exogenously by thedata of Input-output table and fixed capital. The wage share measured in terms of labour canbe calculated by our model. The uniform rate of profits to the ordinary capital is also calculated
by our model. The price of each sector is decomposed into 6 components, direct and indirect
costs by domestic labour, direct and indirect costs by imports, direct and indirect costs bydepreciation, direct and indirect costs by net taxes, profits for direct and indirect costs for fixed
capital, and profits for direct and indirect costs by imports.

Special Session: Current status and challenges of Cultural Satellite Account(CSA) Compilation in Japan
KAWAMURA Tadashi (Agency for Cultural Affairs), FUJIKAWA Kiyoshi (Aichi
Gakuin University), MAKI Keiji(Agency for Cultural Affairs), HAKUSHI
Natsuko(Agency for Cultural Affairs), KAWAI Mitsuo(CDI Inc.)The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) is playing a central role in developing aframework for the Cultural Satellite Account (CSA). In Japan, the Agency for Cultural
Affairs, a cultural administration agency, is developing a Japanese version of the CSA
in collaboration with UIS and other international organizations. As cultures vary withcountry, ethnic group and other factors, the basic structure of UNESCO's international
CSA model was constructed with this in mind and allows for modifications andadaptations to the cultural diversity of/within each country. A CSA provides for thecollection of production value, value added, employment and other cultural industry
statistics in line with the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA). Agency
for Cultural Affairs policies aim to revitalize Japan’s economy by effectively utilizing ourrich extant cultural resources while simultaneously promoting cultural development.
They collect and report on the comprehensive quantitative data of the CSA. This resultsin Cultural GDP statistics and enables the evaluation of the effectiveness and potentialof their policies. In other words, CSA is a pillar for "Evidence-Based (Cultural) Policy
Making (EBPM)". In this presentation, we report on the following: (1) An overview of
the UNESCO model CSA: Definition and scope of culture targeted by the UNESCO
model, and basic UNESCO model cultural GDP calculation methods. (2) Estimates ofcultural GDP in Japan: Specifically, the six UNESCO model cultural GDP areas ofcultural/natural heritage, performing arts, visual arts/crafts, books/press,
audiovisual/interactive media and design/creative services. (3) The current status of

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CSA in the world and issues of CSA in Japan: Aspects unique to Japan's methodology
and how CSA is being publicized in Japan.
Coffee Break (15:20-15:40)
Lawrence R. Klein Award Ceremony and Awardee Speech (16:00-16:45)
Oscar LEMMERS (Statistics Netherlands), Stephen CHONG (Statistics
Netherlands), Rutger HOEKSTRA （ MetricsForTheFuture.com ） , Ilke Van
BEVEREN (De Nederlandsche Bank), Marcel Van Den BERG(Statistics
Netherlands), Ron Van Der WAL(Statistics Netherlands) and Piet VERBIEST(Statistics Netherlands)
The role of small and medium sized enterprises in the Dutch economy: ananalysis using an extended supply and use table.
Firm size is increasingly acknowledged as an important factor for (macro-)economic
policy. It is known that the overall importance of small- and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) is different relative to large multinationals in terms of their impact on economic
growth, international trade and innovation. Yet empirical evidence to substantiate thedifferent roles of firms of different sizes in domestic and global value chains is rare. So
are methods and data. To tackle this problem, we develop a novel approach byextending the Dutch supply–use framework to firm size. We utilize firm-level data toconstruct a supply–use table distinguishing between SMEs and large enterprises andderive an extended input–output table. In doing so, we adopt a more evolved definitionof SMEs, accounting for the fact that small firms may be subsidiaries of large(multinational) enterprise groups. The analysis shows that due to their function as
suppliers to large exporting exporters, SMEs benefit much more from Dutch exports toforeign markets than the traditional export figures show. Their share in gross exports
is 25 percent, but their share in domestic value added embodied in exports is 43
percent. Such outcomes hold for most industries and for exports to all major trading
partners. As a consequence, the OECD suggests that next to policy instruments
helping SMEs to cross the border themselves, instruments to help them find domestic
partners that already export could be established.

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21 March (Sunday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 10:30-12:00
B-2 International Economy and International Development 2

Chair: Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)

Presentation 1
Rido THATH (Meiji Gakuin University)
The Impact of Japan’s ODA on Economic Growth in Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia has received large amount of ODA from Japan, which has contributed
to the development of the region in many sectors, particularly in infrastructure, tradeand human capital development. Although located in the same region, the gap ofdevelopment among Southeast Asian countries are wide. Some countries are highly
developed and are in high-income group on par with developed countries in the West,while other are very much under-developed. In addition, the size of their population,
geographical areas, economies and market are diverse; so do the volume of foreign
aid each country has received. Using data published by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency, this study analyzed the overall impact of Japan’s ODA on
Southeast Asian economies. Then, grant and soft loan are analyzed separately to see
if there is any different impact, and analyses are also conducted on each country case.
The result shows that generally Japan’s ODA contributed positively to the economic
growth of Southeast Asia. When analyzed separately, grant had stronger and moreconsistent positive impact than soft loan. In addition, the result was mixed when eachcountry was analyzed separately, indicating that ODA is necessary but is not sufficientto effectively drive economic growth by itself. Other compliment factors such as thelevel of human capital also plays important role together with ODA for a country to grow.
Presentation 2
Nagendra SHRESTHA (Yokohama National University)
Trade Frictions: Who Will Gain?
Trade friction between the United States and China has been escalating these days,
the same has been occurred in Asia in the past. Intuitively, large trade surplus country(among two countries with trade friction) is assumed to lose more. However,interactions among the global economies are so complicated that the outcome of the
trade friction will affect another countries indirectly. So, this paper aim to investigate
the effect of trade friction on domestic and global economies using the International
Input-Output Analysis. We use the Inter-country Input-Output (ICIO) table published by
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to see the effecton the global economy by assuming that two countries is stop its export to the partnercountry and the import is substituted by domestic productions in respective countries.
Although it seems to be unreal assumption, but this type of exercise will enables us toshow the indirect effect of the trade friction will harm all the countries in the World interms of gross production and value-added also. Specifically, negative effect on thevalue-added will harm global gross domestic production (GDP) meaning that theeconomy and hence well being of human being will suffer for the mere benefit of asingle country or a group of countries.

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Presentation 3
Hor CHANTHA (Nagoya University)
How Does Cambodia Attract Relative Share of Inbound Tourists from ASEAN?
This paper attempts to attract an additional share of inbound tourists for Cambodia
from the total inbound tourists in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
We measure the impact of six subcomponents of institutional quality on the relative
share of inbound tourists (64 countries of origin) in Cambodia to total inbound tourists
in ASEAN. We consider the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
estimation to analyze panel dataset covering 11 years (2007–2017). The estimation
result shows that better rule of law, control of corruption, regulatory quality, politicalstability, government effectiveness, and voice and accountability increases the relative
share of inbound tourists for Cambodia. The business environment, internet access,and doctors show a positive and significant effect on the relative share of inboundtourists (64 countries of origin) in Cambodia. Higher tourism price discourages tourists
who visit ASEAN from visiting Cambodia. Higher transportation cost does notdiscourage inbound tourists who visit ASEAN from visiting Cambodia. The substitution
price (Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam) shows an expected sign and significant
influence on the relative share of inbound tourists (64 countries of origins) in Cambodia
to total inbound tourists in ASEAN. The results are robust in using anothermeasurement of tourism development. Therefore, the government should consider
ways to improve six subcomponents of institutional quality to significantly increase therelative share of inbound tourists for Cambodia from ASEAN.

21 March (Sunday) [Venue C: Room 805] 10:30-12:00
C-2 Regional Input-Output Analysis 2

Chair: Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)

Presentation 1
Mitsuo YAMADA (Chukyo University)

Impact analysis of future consumption changes on the municipal economy in a
depopulating society using the 2011 Aichi prefecture’s inter-municipal inputoutput table
It is feared that future population decline will reduce the vitality of the local economy
by declining household consumption expenditure. Here, for 54 municipalities in Aichi
prefecture, Japan, we will estimate the future changes in the household consumption
expenditure by using the projected numbers of population and household of the
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research and the consumption
expenditure by item by householder age group of the 2014 National Survey of Family
Income and Expenditure. Then, we convert these estimates suitable for the
consumption expenditure by sector in the input-output table for each of 54
municipalities. Furthermore, we will analyze the impact on the production and added
value of each municipality by using 2011 inter-municipal input-output table for 54
municipalities in Aichi Prefecture. Here, in addition to estimating the inter-regional
spillover effect of consumption demand by municipality, we could discuss the regional
interdependence through inter-municipal leakage of compensation of employees due
to commuting by the consumption-endogenous (or the households-endogenous)
model of input-output analysis. According to our analysis, consumption will decreasesignificantly in the northern part of Owari area, the southern part of Chita area, and all

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part of Higashi-Mikawa area. For example, Toyohashi City and Ichinomiya City have alarge decrease in consumption, then the induced production of them decreases largely.
On the other hand, though Nagoya City’s population and household does not decreaseso largely compared to others, its production is reduced by the decrease of
consumption expenditures in the surrounding municipalities.
Presentation 2
Md ARIF-UR-RAHMAN (Ritsumeikan University), Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan
University)
Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: A Firm-Level Analysis of
Bangladesh in Comparison with Vietnam.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to generate external effects—usuallytermed FDI spillovers—for a host country, and these spillovers are thought to haveconsequences on the productivity of domestic firms. Despite this strong expectation,
the empirical findings on FDI spillover are still indecisive. This study examines firmlevel panel data to determine the effects of FDI spillover on firms’ productivity in
Bangladesh in comparison to Vietnam. We consider both the horizontal (intra-industry)and vertical (inter industry) spillover effects of FDI. Researchers are now moreinterested in searching for the possibility of FDI spillover across industries. Schoors
and van der Tol (2002) for Hungary, Javorick (2004) for Lithuania, and Blalock (2002)
for Indonesia all find positive spillover effects through vertical linkages. To measureinter industry or vertical (backward and forward) spillover variables, we use the inputoutput matrices of individual country provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Empirically we find evidence that Bangladeshi firms gain productivity improvement
through intra-industry or horizontal linkages, whereas Vietnamese firms gain throughbackward linkages. Our findings suggest that increases in foreign presence in thesame industry for Bangladesh and in downstream industries for Vietnam are relatedwith increase in output of domestic firms.
Key words: Foreign direct investments; horizontal spillover; vertical spillover;Bangladesh; Vietnam.

21 March (Sunday) [Venue A: Room 901 & 902] 13:00-15:00
A-3 Organized Session: Towards Carbon Neutrality: Chinese andAmerican Strategies

Chair: Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)
Discussant: LEE Soocheol (Meijo University)
Discussant: Tadashi HAYASHI (Shiga Prefecture University)

Presentation 1
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)

Structural changes in embodied CO2 trade due to US return to Paris Agreement
On November 4th, 2020, the US officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement which isan international framework for combating global warming. However, after that,President-elect Joe Biden has promised to rejoin the Paris Agreement. As the US is
the world’s second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China, its withdrawal
and return would affect the effectiveness of the agreement and carbon leakage. This

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study analyzes structural changes in embodied CO2 trade due to the US return to theParis Agreement by fusing CGE and I-O analysis. We simulate three policy scenarios:(1)The Paris Agreement scenario where main countries and regions with NDCs
including the US implement carbon reduction policies from 2015, (2)the US withdrawal
scenario where the US does not implement any carbon policy, and (3) the US returnscenario where the US starts carbon reduction policy from 2021. We found that with
the US return to the Paris Agreement, GDP in 2030 will increase by 0.1% to 0.3% in
most countries and regions except the US compared to the US withdrawal scenario.
The world's CO2 emissions in 2030 will decrease by 2.2 billion tons compared to the
US withdrawal scenario. This would be due to a decrease in CO2 emitted by the US.
However, our I-O analysis reveals that about some part of CO2 decrease is due toconsumption-based CO2 emissions decreasing in countries and regions other than the
US. Namely, if a large country like the US joins the agreement, it will enhance theeffectiveness of carbon reduction policies by decreasing embodied CO2 imports. Fromthe structural decomposition analysis, we found that improvement of CO2 output ratio
contributes to carbon reduction much more than intermediate input coefficient changes
and final demand decreases. The US return would reinforce CO2 output ratio
contributes.
Presentation 2
Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University), Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin
University)
US and Chinese power selection and usefulness of international emissions trade
In recent years, the introduction of renewable energies such as wind power and solar
power has been progressing in China. Wind power generation has almost achieved
the target of 13th 5-year plan, and solar power generation has achieved twice the target
regardless the final year of the 13th 5-year plan is 2020. Regarding Greenhouse Gas
emission trading, regional exchange markets have been opened in eight regions since2013 while nationwide emission trading system is scheduled to start soon. Though theUnited States has no numerical targets for the introduction of renewable energy as thefederal government, some states in the USA have introduced a Renewables Portfolio
Standard for energy utilization and an GHG emissions trading system. This study
examines the effects of environmental policy on the power source composition and theeffects of emissions trading, mainly in the United States and China. GTAP-E-Powermodel is used as the analysis model. The GTAP-E-Power model is a model thatenables the substitution of 11 types of power generation activities including renewableenergy and nuclear power.
Renewable energy introduction policies include
production subsidies for the renewable energy sector, taxation on the use of coal power,
enhancement of technological progress in the renewable energy sector, etc. For
example, a 50% production subsidy for wind and solar power increases their power
production and reduces CO2 emissions, but the distortion of the production structure
due to the subsidy reduces GDP to some extent. And it can be confirmed that theUnited States and China have higher elasticity of CO2 emissions to GDP than that inother countries/regions. We will also analyze the economic and environmental effectsof domestic and international emissions trading in achieving the goals of the Paris
Agreement, and examine the usefulness of the role of renewable energies.

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Presentation 3
Jiayang WANG (Renewable Energy Institute)
Optimal location for large-scale wind farms in China
In this study, we examine the economic rationality of the location for large-scale wind
power generation in China. Since wind power generation has a low energy density, thearea required to install equipment for generating the same power is larger in renewableenergy power generation than in thermal power generation. That is why the location oflarge-scale wind power farm in rural area where the land price is low. On the other
hand, as the transmission line becomes longer, the transmission cost gets higher withtransmission line construction and transmission loss. Therefore, the cost curve
becomes a U-shape, and there is a location with the minimum cost. In this paper, we
calculated the minimum cost location for wind power generation around Beijing,considering the distance from Beijing and the location cost. As a result of the analysis,
it was found that the distance where the location cost including the transmission costis the minimum is about 110km from Beijing. However, at present, large-scale windfarms are far from the lowest cost location. One of the reasons is the separation of
power generation and transmission in China. Since Chinese power producers do notbear transmission costs and the cost to be considered is construction costs only, largescale wind farm tends to be built in remote areas where land is cheap. However, in
remote areas, there are not enough transmission lines and power demand is low. In
reality, there are cases where renewable power generation cannot be fully utilized andoutput is suppressed. Such mismatches have a negative impact on the spread ofrenewable energy.
Presentation 4
Yiyi JU (University of Tokyo), Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)
Initial allocation of emissions trading among sub-regions in China
In the context of the 2060 carbon-neutral pledge, the role of the national market-based
climate policy instrument, China emission trading scheme, is becoming increasingly
important. The market design of it calls for an approach that can allocate the initial
allowances considering the equality in the development in each region, specifically,
considering the electricity transmission and emission relocation among regions. A large
number of effort-sharing approaches have been proposed following different equity
principles. They are found to have some basic tenets, such as responsibility, capability,
equality, and cost-effectiveness. This study conducted two main approaches:
emissions generated from energy use (Energy consumption-based) and emissions
induced by the consumption of final goods and services (Final consumption-based),
together with three reference approaches (Per capita convergence, Ability to pay, andCost-optimal) to provide such references to a further adjustment of the initial allowance
allocation. Based on the 30-region input-output table in 2012 and emission data in
2015, the results of the two main approaches share the same total amount but differ inthe structure of regions. Such difference provides important references to a further
adjustment of the initial allowance allocation. A proper emission allocation of ETS canspeed the shift towards electricity-saving technologies and lifestyles in regions that
consume a large amount of electricity (e.g., Jiangsu, Beijing, and Guangdong), as wellas to support the improvement of emission intensity in regions generating more

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electricity (Shanxi and Inner Mongolia). The discussion of sub-regions under thecoverage of a national emission trading scheme in China provide important references
for a potential international emission trading scheme covering more countries.

21 March (Sunday) [Venue B: Room 802 & 803] 13:00-15:00
B-3 Others 1

Chair: Ken ITAKURA (Nagoya City University)

Presentation 1
Michael HUANG (Ocean Policy Research Institute)
The Economic Impact of Technology Improvement, Shipping Routes andEconomic Partnership Agreement: An Approach of GTAP Model
The share of shipping of goods as of the 21st century still exceeds 80% of global trades,
indicating that the looking for the new route and technology improvement in navigation
could improve the efficiency. Meanwhile, the technology improvement and climatechange has made the Arctic routes an option during summer, saving the transportation
cost by 40%. However, the increasing demand of trade and shipping in emerging
economies such as Asia and the Pacific, Indian Ocean and the Gulf, reducing carbon
emission reduction has become urgent issue. On the other hand, the mushroomed
economic partnership agreements (EPAs) since the 2000’s have also boosted thetrade volume intra- and inter-regional. The position in Japan and other East Asian
countries could be benefited by such trend. A lot of literature focuses on the changeof total volume, but it would be more precise to illustrate the impact specifically in orderto further interpret the new type of trade agreement in the non-tradable measures(NTMs), such as legal system and market barrier. To capture the phenomenon witheconomic interpretation, the research applies GTAP model (v10.0) to make policy
simulations for the economic impact results from the technology improvement inshipping and logistics sectors. Such change contributes to production efficiency
improvement while these parameters are calibrated from Japan’s SciREX Policy
Intelligence Assistance System Economic Simulator (SPIAS-e). We constructscenarios of (1) Technology improvement; (2) Accessibility of routes and (3) Economic
partnership agreements (EPAs) accordingly.
Presentation 2
Ken ITAKURA (Nagoya City University), Tomohiro IWAMOTO (Nagoya City
University)
Incorporating a Sub-Region into a Global CGE Model
There has been an increasing interest in sub-regional economic impact of mega-FTAs,
such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Our aim in
this study is to explore the linkage between a sub-region and global economy, byincorporating a sub-region into a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelof international trade. We take Aichi prefecture in Japan as a sub-region to be
introduced to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, and we modify the
database and the comparative static GTAP model to accommodate this alternation.
Input-Output (IO) tables of Aichi and Japan provide a starting point for our modification

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process. Industrial sectors from the IO tables are aggregated to 50 sectors to matchwith the same aggregation obtained from the GTAP database. The nexus between
production, international trade, and consumption is split accordingly by distinguishing
Aichi prefecture from the rest of Japan. In the modified model, we add a new moduleof domestic inflows and outflows of goods and services within Japan. To illustrate subregional impact of national trade policy change, we experiment a set of tradeliberalization scenarios. Tentative results from simulation experiments shows that the
impact of trade liberalization differs in direction and in magnitude reflecting thedifference in economic structure of Aichi prefecture from the rest of Japan.

21 March (Sunday) [Venue C: Room 805] 13:00-15:00
C-3 Others 2

Chair: Takashi YAGI (Meiji University)

Presentation 1
Satoru HAGINO (Statistics Commission Office), Shinji TAHARA (Chiba
University of Commerce), Jiyoung KIM (Okayama University)
Firm Heterogeneity to be incorporated in Japan’s SNA IOTThis paper examines the heterogeneity of Japanese firms and identify gaps in theratios of their imported intermediates to total outputs. Using such gaps, we can develop
the SNA Extended Input Output Table (IOT) for Japan and recalculate trade in valueadded indicators for Japan by incorporating such an extended IOT in OECD’s multicountry IOT. For this purpose, we measured the gaps in imported intermediate ratios
using micro data of firm-based Basic Survey of Corporate Activities as well as
establishment based Economic Censuses and Input Surveys for Mining andManufacturing. Our micro data matching revealed that the distinction between
exporting and non-exporting firms is relevant for assembly industries such as electronic
and automobile industries, as discussed in many literatures. In contrast, otherdistinctions appear to be more important than such a distinction for primary materials
industry. More specifically, chemical industry, in particular petro-chemical industry
having integrated large manufacturing plant, has the largest gaps in imported
intermediate ratios when distinguishing large firms from small and medium firms. Metal,
textile and paper industries, which have exploited raw materials abroad, has the largest
gap when distinguishing firms with foreign affiliates from those without foreign affiliates.
Interestingly, it is not essential to distinguish foreign from domestic firms, as foreign
firms do not dominate in Japan’s export market.
Presentation 2
Ileas Mia MOHAMMAD (Ritsumeikan University), Kazuo INABA (Ritsumeikan
University)
Does Education Reduces Wage Inequality? Evidence from HIES data in
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has experienced sustained economic growth of over 6% in the last decade.
Economic growth often accompanies income inequality, and the Asian Development
Bank (2017) finds that the household income inequality has risen in Bangladesh. As
wage income is a major source of income, this study investigates the wage inequality

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and how education affects the wage inequality in Bangladesh.
For this purpose, thisstudy uses the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data for the year
2005, 2010 and 2016 and examines the wage inequality of the period of 2005-2010
and 2010-2016. The Unconditional quantile regression examines the changes inquantile rates of return to education over the survey years. The decomposition ofwages by year with Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and Recentered Influence Function
examines the wage inequality caused by education and also the part of wage
distribution that affects the wage inequality. The unconditional quantile estimatesshow that return to schooling increases at the higher point of wage distribution andlevel of educational attainment increases wage inequality within and across the group.
The wage inequality measured by Gini decreased during the 2005-2016 in Bangladesh.
The change in return to education significantly increase wage inequality during 20052010 and both the changes in education and return to education during the 2010-2016
significantly increase and decrease wage inequality, respectively.
Key Words: Education in Bangladesh, Wage Inequality, Oaxaca-Blinder
Decomposition, Recentered Influence Function.

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Floor Map

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International Conference on Economic Structures 2021
Kobe International House, Japan, March 20-21, 2021
General Organizing Committee

Takashi YAGI (President of PAPAIOS, Meiji University)
Yoshifumi ISHIKAWA (Nanzan University)
Nobuhiro OKAMOTO (Daito Bunka University)
Satoshi NAKANO（Nihon Fukushi University）
Mikio SUGA (Hosei University)
Keiji UJIKAWA (Yokohama National University)

Local Organizing Committee

Taiji HAGIWARA (Chief of Local Organizing Committee, Kobe University)
Tsunenori ASHIYA (Hyogo Prefecture, University of Hyogo)
Hikari BAN (Kobe Gakuin University)
Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA (Aichi Gakuin University)

Scientific Program Committee

Makiko TSUKUI (Chief of Science Program Committee, Tokyo International University)
Yoshifumi ISHIKAWA (Nanzan University)
Satoshi NAKANO（Nihon Fukushi University）
Keiji UJIKAWA (Yokohama National University)

Organized by the Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Co-organized by Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University

Contact: ICES_PAPAIOS@ml.gakkai.ne.jp
Web site: http://www.gakkai.ne.jp/papaios/en/conference.html
Access: https://kobe-convention.jp/en/planning/venues-and-accommodations/kobeinternational-hall/This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP16HP2010.