US, UK and Japan International Symposium
Keynote (draft)

7th, February 2022
“Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear Warand Avoiding Arms Races” - We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never befought.
On the 3rd January 2022, in emphasizing that no one can be won, a statement titled “JointStatement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War andAvoiding Arms Races” was issued by the five Nuclear States, The People’s Republic of China,
the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain andNorthern Ireland, and the United States of America.
The statement is consist of 5 paragraphs, reaffirming issues below.
① It is most important task to avoid nuclear war and reduce strategic risk.
② To affirm a nuclear war must never be fought.
③ nuclear weapons should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.
④ We remain committed to Article VI obligation⑤ reaffirming that none of our nuclear weapons are targeted at each other or at any otherState.
⑥ to pursue constructive dialogue for the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons
UN Secretary-General, António Guterres welcomed a joint statement and added “(he) looks
forward to more details about future initiatives”. Biden administration explains the statement
is compatible with its coming “Nuclear Posture Review” lowering role of nuclear weapons.
Russia emphasizes significance of the statement as it is written by Russian Initiative andagreeing of the statement would lead to détente, restriction to arms race, and confidencebuilding.

As like Russia, China announces that the statement should be a starting pointforwarding to permanent peace.
Advance of Nuclear modernization and confrontation between the US and Russia as well as theUS and China.

Nevertheless, regarding nuclear disarmament of each nuclear states, it is not possible toconsider they are actively proceeding it. Contrary, they are hurry to conduct modernizationof nuclear weapons. Thus they make efforts to downsize of nuclear weapons and to improve
guiding technology. Regarding US, while Obama administration propagated “a world without
nuclear weapons”, the administration proceeded nuclear weapons modernization. Then,
Trump administration deployed SLBM with downsized new nuclear warhead in Strategic
submarine “Tennessee”. Last December, National Security Agency (NSA) announced to startfull-scale production of latest thermonuclear gravity bomb B61-12 for aircraft. The nuclear
arsenal ishigh accuracy in the mean and possible to lower yield to less than 2% of one dropped inHiroshima. It is pointed out that nuclear arsenal is useable so it became just a weapon inreality.
Nuclear Information Project of Federation of American Scientists (FAS) points out that newnuclear missile silo is under construction in suburb of Hami in Eastern Xinjiang, China. It isestimated that there are 250 silos including ones already known in the past. Neverthelessestimated nuclear arsenals of China is approximately 350 which is absolutely small number incompare to ones of US or Russia. China declares it will maintain least nuclear deterrent andno-nuclear-first-use as principle of its policy. However, it is considered to be forced tostrengthen nuclear forces under Sino-US confrontation. After Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces Treaty (INF) between US and Russia was expertized, US requests China to participate
Nuclear Disarmament negotiation. In facing absolutely ascendant US and Russian nuclear
forces, it is complex how China would consider about its nuclear forces .
Meanwhile, Russia is conducting modernization of its nuclear forces. Negotiation overUkraine, which is deeply in confusion caused by political confrontation over participating
NATO, started on the 9th January. Foreign secretary of the neighbor Belarus, Vladimir Makei
announces its consideration of nuclear deployment in the country. Russia as alley of it implies
possibility of the deployment. President Putin mentioned he considered to use nuclear
weapons during annexation of Crimea in 2014. It is feasible to become a serious confrontation
between US-Europe and Russia depend on result of negotiation over Eastern Europe.
P5 argue to fulfill its obligation of clause 6 of NPT in the Joint statement, however, UK PM
Johnson announced to abandon its plan reducing its nuclear arsenals to about approximately
180 until mid-2020s and, in the contrary, to increase its ceiling to 260. It was clear declarationof enhancing nuclear forces. It is not acceptable as breaching clause 6 of the NPT.

Negative response of Japanese government to TPNW
In such a situation, Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)) entry into force inFebruary 2020. TPNW “Considering that any use of nuclear weapons would be contrary to
the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, in particular the principles andrules of international humanitarian law” and prohibits develop, test, produce, manufacture,otherwise acquire, possess, stockpile, transfer, use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.
The treaty is the result of activities of Hibakusha of Japan as only nation suffered from atomicbombing, to appeal reality of their own disasters. However, Japanese government as “onlynation suffered from nuclear bombing” rejects to sign and ratify TPNW, arguing that thetreaty causes confrontation between Nuclear states and Non-Nuclear states. PM Kishida
whose constituency is in Hiroshima describes about TPNW is an exit of a world without
nuclear weapons, and NPT is an entrance. Moreover, if Japan pushes forward to the exit,
division between Nuclear weapons states and Non-nuclear weapons states should be widen,so he does not reject ratification of TPNW in future, however, there are a lot of work to bedone before it. In the end, he rejects to ratify TPNW right now. Japanese government
proposes resolution on abolishment of nuclear weapons to UN General Assembly every year
and UNGA passe the resolution with majority. However, the resolutions did not mention
about TPNW. Thus ICAN criticizes strongly Japanese government as irresponsible to nuclear
disarmament. Abstention for the resolution was 35 last year and 27 this year.
Natsuo Yamaguchi, Representative of Komei Party which is a partner of coalition government,
spoke that Hibakusha had made efforts very hard to establish the treaty. In appealing theirmiserable experiences, they moved a lot of country. In addressing that the government should
respect voice of Hibakusha, he argues that Japan should attend the first meeting of TPNW
state patties (1MPT) as observer. Moreover, he proposes to invite MPT to Hiroshima andNagasaki. We think it is necessary for Japanese government not to reject TPNW without
consideration and to discuss seriously TPNW in the coalition government and in parliament.
If the government rejects participating as observer, it should propose policy for nuclear
abolishment concretely.
Germany will join 1MPT and Concern of US about it.
Coalition government consist of Social Democratic Party, Green Party and Free Democratic
Party was established as a result of general election in September 2021. The coalition
government decided to participate 1MPT as observer. Germany is a member of NATOcommitting “Nuclear Sharing” with Berge, Italy, Holland and Turk. It is questionable thatJapan is not able to attend the meeting as observer, since Japan is only nation suffered fromnuclear bombing, moreover, it maintains “three non-nuclear principles” including “notallowing the entry of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory” as a national policy.
Currently there are nine nuclear weapons states and none of them intend to attend TPNW.
US Secretary of State Blinken rejects clearly TPNW to restrict Germany that it would not leadnuclear disarmament. Regarding the decision of Germany, Secretary General of NATO
Stoltenberg agrees with Secretary Blinken that all of NATO member states have an agreementthat they should not sign TPNW”. Two of NATO member states, Germany and Norway,announce to attend 1MSP. Swiss, Sweden and Finland, non-member state of NATO, willattend 1MSP as well. Attitude of US and NATO to the European countries indicate their will
to suppress to expand attendance to 1MSP as observer. It seems the Joint Statement of P5 wementioned at the beginning is a production of the will.
Supporting for US nuclear weapons policy by Japan
It is reported US officials pressure Japan not to attend 1MSP as observer. However, is it thedecisive cause for attitude of Japan? As Obama administration examined to declare No-FirstUse of Nuclear Weapons”, and Biden administration is doing the same, Japanese government
was, and is the biggest obstacle to do so. This act of the government reveals that despite ofany address of PM Kishida regarding nuclear abolishment, “approach to nuclear abolishment”
of the government is a vague one, moreover, it is undoubtful that negative response to TPNW
is not caused by peer pressure of allied US but actively decided by the government. It ishumorous that while Japanese government proposes “resolution for nuclear weaponsabolishment” to UNGA every year, it strongly opposes nuclear disarmament of US as an alliedcountry. Beatrice Fihn, Executive Director of ICAN criticizes repeatedly that Japanese
government to lose its footing from rational international community and she is disappointed
with the government to keep nuclear weapon legal.
Nuclear weapons modernization: from deterrence to threat
In overlooking the situation regarding nuclear weapons, TPNW is representing justice,driving Nuclear states into corner. September 11th terrorist attack to US, a giant military
power with nuclear forces, revealed nuclear deterrence was not able to secure safety of people.
In spreading regional conflicts, it is doubtful that nuclear deterrence is effectively prevent
arms conflict. Different from Cold War era, Nuclear deterrence is only illusion at present.
Meanwhile, it is possible to use nuclear weapons as limited and certain assault ones bydownsizing of nuclear warhead and developing precision missile guidance technology that
locally limited nuclear war would become real. Currently, existence of nuclear weapons isserious threat to our future.
What is to be done? Role of the US, the UK and Japan
Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Japan Julia Longbottom announced that number ofnuclear warheads as 260 is ceiling, not objective and it makes efforts to realize a world without
nuclear weapons through NPT. However, some professionals criticize that consolidating
nuclear forces weakens legitimacy of NPT and breaches norm of nuclear proliferation. As
Beyza Unal, deputy director with the International security programme at Chatham House,
commented that the consolidation of nuclear forces is arbitrary and based on logic of cold warera, there are criticism in the UK. We argue it should not accept to move against nuclear
disarmament. Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) as a government party of Scottish
Government seeking to independent from the UK argues removing of Her Majesty's Naval
Base, Clyde, which is only home of Britain's nuclear weapons, in the form of nuclear
submarines armed with Trident missiles, since if huge cost of maintaining nuclear forces isconverted to one for regional development, the development should create more jobs than
one for the base. It is reported that to prepare independence of Scotland, UK government
examines transfer of home of the Trident submarines. It is worth noting that nuclear baseshould become key target at war. In this sense, it is expected to critical action of peace
movement.
In Us, Biden administration is formulating new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Bonnie
Denise Jenkins, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs,
mentioned that the administration examined a declaration to reduce role of nuclear weapons.
It is estimated that role of nuclear weapons is limited to deter and revenge to nuclear attack.
In comparing to NPR of Tramp administration, not excluding use of nuclear weapons against
attack by conventional weapons, one of Biden would be considered much better than Tramp’s
one. End of last year, approximately 700 scientists including 21 Novel Prize winners sent aletter to president Biden, arguing no-first use declaration, de-alert , and cancel of update ofICBM. We think if US declares no-first use, threat of nuclear war should significantly bereduced. Civil society of Japan should made efforts to prevent Japanese government action tobe obstacle to the declaration as before.
Despite only nation suffered from atomic bombing, Japanese government rejects to sign andratify TPNW and to attend 1MSP as observer. It is not overstatement that the government

accepts existence of nuclear weapons. Austria, a leading state to entry into force of TPNW,
comments on attitude of Japanese government as contradicting to stand for nuclear
disarmament and proposes the government to attend 1MSP as observer. Attending 1MSP as
observer by NATO member states such as Germany and Western European states such as
Swiss strongly press nuclear weapons states and will have important role to make effects on
international public opinion leading to nuclear abolish. In this sense, it is significantly
influential that Japan attend 1MSP as observer. In considering there is certain supporting
force for attending 1MSP in the government, it is critical to gather voice in civil society ofJapan to demand it.
Yasunari Fujimoto
Co-Chair,Japan Congress against A- and H-Bombs (GENSUIKIN)