Spring 2024

Table of Contents: TCC News No. 76
Pilot Launch of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products ........................................................................................ 1
JMA's Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2024 ..................................................................... 3
Summary of the 2023/2024 Asian Winter Monsoon ................................................................................................... 5
TCC and WMC Tokyo co-contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia ...................................................... 11
TCC contributions to the Report on the States of the Climate in Asia 2023 .................................................................. 13

Pilot Launch of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products
In its role as a WMO Regional Climate Center, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) has started providing products forseasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones reaching tropical storm* intensity or higher for the western North Pacificto support WMO Members in the Asia/Pacific region. Registered users within National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) can access these products via the TCC website.
* Defined as a tropical cyclone with a maximum sustained wind speed of 34 knots or more and less than 48 knots.

The data consist of numerical outputs based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system. The following
parameters are provided for the selected period and area:- Number of Tropical Cyclones (Figure 1-1)
- Tropical Cyclone Frequency- Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Forecasts are updated around the 20th of each month from May to August. For user convenience, 30-year (1991 –2020) hindcast (i.e., retrospective forecast) verification results (Figure 1-2) are provided in addition to an algorithm
description.
The products are currently in the pilot phase, and do not include TCC forecaster commentary. Access is exclusive
to appropriately trained NMHS experts, and can be requested via the application page (linked to on the TCC
website).
These products are intended to support NMHS in considering their seasonal forecasts. User feedback toward
product improvement is welcomed.
(UESAWA Daisaku, Tokyo Climate Center)

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Figure 1-1 Seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone numbers

Figure 1-2 30-year (1991 – 2020) hindcast verification of seasonal forecasts for tropical cyclone numbers<<Table of contents <Top of this article

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JMA's Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2024
This report outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble prediction for boreal summer 2024 (June – August,referred to as JJA), which was used as a basis for JMA’s operational three-month outlook issued on 21 May 2024.
The outlook is based on the seasonal ensemble prediction system of the Coupled Atmosphere-ocean General
Circulation Model (CGCM).
Summary: Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system, it is more likely that La Niña conditions willdevelop by boreal autumn (60%) than ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (40%). In association withabove-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean, enhanced convection is expected from thewestern Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal. In the lower troposphere, anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies straddlingthe equator are expected from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific.
1. Sea surface temperatures
Figure 2-1 shows predicted SSTs (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for JJA. Negative anomalies are
expected from the eastern to the central equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold anomalies observed in these areas are
expected to propagate eastward and reduce SSTs in the eastern part in boreal summer; however, there are large
uncertainties regarding the degree to which this will affect NINO.3 SSTs. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system
indicates that NINO.3 SSTs will fall below normal in boreal summer. In conclusion, it is more likely that La Niña
conditions will develop by boreal autumn (60%) than ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (40%). In the western
tropical Pacific, positive anomalies are expected in boreal summer. In the tropical Indian Ocean, positive anomalies
in central and western parts and negative anomalies in eastern parts are expected in boreal summer.

Figure 2-1 Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST anomalies(shading) for June–August 2024 (ensemble mean of 51
members)

2. Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics
Figure 2-2 (a) shows predicted precipitation (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for JJA. Above-normal
precipitation is expected from the western Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal and near the Maritime Continent, andbelow-normal precipitation is expected over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific and aroundthe Philippines.
Figure 2-2 (b) shows predicted velocity potential (contours) and related anomalies (shading) in the upper
troposphere for JJA. In association with the precipitation anomalies described above, negative (i.e., large-scale
divergent) anomalies are expected from the Atlantic to the central Indian Ocean, while positive (large-scaleconvergence) anomalies are expected over the Pacific.

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Figure 2-2 (c) shows predicted stream functions (contours) and related anomalies (shading) in the upper
troposphere for JJA. Anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies (i.e., positive in the Northern Hemisphere) straddling theequator are expected from the eastern tropical Pacific to the Atlantic. Cyclonic circulation anomalies are expected
over Eurasia, implying a potential southward shift of the subtropical jet.
Figure 2-2 (d) shows predicted stream functions (contours) and related anomalies (shading) in the lower
troposphere for JJA. Anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies straddling the equator are expected from the eastern Indian
Ocean to the western Pacific.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Figure 2-2 Predicted atmospheric fields over 60°N-60°S for June–August 2024 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 2 mm/day. (b) Velocity potential at 200-hPa(contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 2 × 10 6 m2/s. (c) Stream function at 200-hPa (contours) andanomaly (shading). The contour interval is 16 × 106 m2/s. (d) Stream function at 850-hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.

3. Prediction for the mid- and high- latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
Figure 2-3 (a) shows predicted 500-hPa geopotential heights (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for JJA.
Anomalies are expected to be positive over wide areas of the Northern Hemisphere and relatively small over
mid-latitude Eurasia in association with southward shifting of the subtropical jet.
Figure 2-3 (b) shows predicted sea level pressure (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for JJA. Positive
anomalies are expected over the subtropical western North Pacific in association with westward extension of theNorth Pacific Subtropical High. Negative anomalies are expected over the mid-latitudes from East Asia to the North
Pacific.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 2-3 Predicted atmospheric fields over 20°N-90°N for June–August 2024 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Geopotential height at 500-hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 60 m. (b) Sea levelpressure (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 4 hPa.

Note: JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General
Circulation Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range. The EPS produces
perturbed initial conditions by means of a combination of the initial perturbation method and the lagged average
forecasting (LAF) method. Prediction is made using 51 members from the latest 17 initial dates (3 members areused every day). Details of the prediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments(1991–2020) are available at https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.
(NAKAMIGAWA Hiroshi, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Summary of the 2023/2024 Asian Winter Monsoon
This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface climate and atmospheric/oceanographic conditions
related to the Asian winter monsoon for 2023/2024.
Note: Dataset of the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a century (JRA-3Q) (Kosaka et al. 2024) and MGDSST(Kurihara et al. 2006) were used to analyze atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). NOAA
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Blended Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data provided by the U.S. NOAA
PhysicalSciences
Laboratory
(PSL)
from
their
web
site
at
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc_blended_olr-2.5deg.html was used to infer tropical convective activity.
The base period for the normal is 1991 to 2020. The term “anomaly” as used in this report refers to deviation fromthe normal.
1. Surface climate conditions
In winter 2023/2024, three-month (DJF) mean temperatures were well above normal over a wide area fromJapan to Southeast Asia and below normal from Eastern Siberia to northern East Asia (Figure 3-1 (a)). This indicatesthat the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) was generally weaker than normal from eastern to southern East Asia.

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However, notable monthly temperature variations were also observed. While warm anomalies were seen over mostof East Asia in January, cold anomalies in December and February are suggestive of cold spells (Figures 3-1 (b) and(d)). Winter precipitation amounts were above normal in most parts of mid-latitude Eurasia (Figure 3-2).

Figure 3-1 Temperature anomalies for (a) December 2023 to February 2024, (b) December 2024, (c) January 2024 and(d) February 2024
Categories are defined by the three-month/monthly mean temperature anomaly against the normal divided by its
standard deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are –1.28, –0.44, 0, +0.44 and+1.28. Standard deviations were calculated from 1991 – 2020 statistics. Areas over land without graphical marks arethose where observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

Figure 3-2 Precipitation ratio for (a) December 2023 to February 2024, (b) December 2023, (c) January 2024 and (d)February 2024
Categories are defined by the three-month/monthly precipitation ratio against the normal and averaged in 5° × 5° gridboxes. The thresholds of each category are 70, 100 and 120%. Areas over land without graphical marks are thosewhere observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

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Figure 3-3 Extreme climate stations for (a) December 2023, (b) January 2024 and (c) February 2024
ΔT, SD and Rd indicate temperature anomaly, standard deviation and quintile, respectively.

Figure 3-3 plots stations where extreme climatic conditions were observed between December 2023 andFebruary 2024. Extremely high temperatures were recorded from southwestern China to Southeast Asia in
December (Figure 3-3 (a)) and from Japan to Southeast Asia in February (Figure 3-3 (c)). Extremely low
temperatures were observed in the southern part of Eastern Siberia in January (Figure 3-3 (b)), and extremely highprecipitation amounts were seen in mid-latitude areas from Central to East Asia from December to February (Figure
3-3).
2. Characteristic atmospheric circulation and oceanographic conditions
This section presents characteristics of atmospheric circulation and oceanographic conditions averaged in winter2023/2024.
2.1 Conditions in the tropics
Figure 3-4 shows three-month mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anomalous convective activity
for winter 2023/2024. Although SST anomalies were generally positive in tropical regions from the Indian Ocean to
the Pacific, a tripolar pattern was observed with remarkably warm anomalies from the central to the easternequatorial Pacific and the tropical western Indian Ocean, and relatively weak warm anomalies around the Maritime
Continent (Figure 3-4 (a)). This tripolar SST anomaly pattern is associated with mature El Niño conditions and is aremnant of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event observed in the preceding summer – autumn period.
Convective activity inferred from OLR was enhanced in the central equatorial Pacific and the western tropical Indian
Ocean, and suppressed over and around the Maritime Continent (Figure 3-4 (b)), corresponding to theaforementioned tripolar SST anomaly pattern. In the upper troposphere, large-scale divergence anomalies were
dominant around the equatorial date line in the Pacific and in the tropical western Indian Ocean, and large-scaleconvergence anomalies were seen over and around the Maritime Continent (Figure 3-4 (b)).

Figure 3-4 Three-month mean (a) SST anomalies and (b) anomalous convective activity in winter 2023/2024

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The shadings in (a) and (b) show the SST anomalies [°C] and OLR anomalies [W/m 2]. The contours and vectors in (b)indicate 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies at intervals of 0.5 × 106 m2/s and divergent wind anomalies, respectively.
Negative (cold color) and positive (warm color) OLR anomalies show enhanced and suppressed convective activity
compared to the normal, respectively.

Figure 3-5 shows three-month mean 200 and 850-hPa stream function anomalies for winter 2023/2024. In the upper
troposphere, a wave train of anomalies was seen from western Europe to Japan via southern Eurasia, with anti-cyclonic
circulation anomalies in the northwestern Indian Ocean/over Japan and cyclonic anomalies over southern China (Figure
3-5 (a)). Those over Japan corresponded to a northward meandering of the subtropical jet stream (STJ), which was
conducive to a weaker-than-normal EAWM (Figure 3-1 (a)). These wavy anomalies are indicative of Rossby wave
propagation along the STJ over Eurasia, which was partly induced by cumulus convection anomalies from the tropicalIndian Ocean to the Pacific (Figure 3-4 (b)), as evidenced by a numerical experiment (not shown) using a linear baroclinic
model (Watanabe and Kimoto 2000, 2001). In the central tropical Pacific, anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies straddlingthe equator were seen in response to enhanced cumulus convection in the central equatorial Pacific (Figure 3-5 (a)). In
the lower troposphere, anti-circulation anomalies straddling the equator were seen in the area from the central Indian
Ocean to the Maritime Continent (Figure 3-5 (b)).

Figure 3-5 Three-month mean (a) 200-hPa and (b) 850-hPa stream function anomalies in winter 2023/2024
The contours indicate stream function anomalies at intervals of (a) 3 × 10 6 m2/s and (b) 1.5 × 106 m2/s, and theshadings show OLR anomalies [W/m2]. The vectors denote horizontal component of wave activity flux [m2/s2] definedby Takaya and Nakamura (2001).

2.2 Conditions in the extratropics
Figure 3-6 shows three-month mean 500-hPa height, sea level pressure and 850-hPa temperature for winter2023/2024 in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 500-hPa height field (Figure 3-6 (a)), the tropospheric polar vortex(typically located over the Arctic region) split in association with positive anomalies over the Arctic region andnegative anomalies over Europe and the area from Eastern Siberia to Alaska. Significantly positive anomalies werealso seen from Japan to the south of the Aleutian Islands. These conditions correspond to a clear polar front jet
stream(PFJ) stretching from Eurasia to the north of Japan, which generally hindered southward flow of cold air
masses to East Asia and led to a weaker-than-normal EAWM (Figure 3-1 (a)). In the sea pressure level (SLP) field, theSiberian High was stronger than normal in its northeastern part. The Aleutian Low was stronger than normal in its
northeastern part and weaker than normal in its southwestern part (Figure 3-6 (b)). Lower-level temperatures wereabove normal in and around Japan (Figure 3-6 (c)) in association with the positive 500-hPa height and SLP
anomalies described above.

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Figure 3-6 Three-month mean (a) 500-hPa height, (b) sea level pressure, and (c) 850-hPa temperature in winter2023/2024
The contour intervals are (a) 60 m, (b) 4 hPa, and (c) 4 °C. The shading denotes related anomalies.

2.3 Intra-seasonal variations
Another notable characteristic of the EAWM in 2023/2024 was large intra-seasonal temperature variations, as
partially manifested in monthly temperature anomalies (Figure 3-1). Several cold spells hit East Asia during thewinter. For example, in the second half of December, the PFJ over Eurasia exhibited a large meandering structure,
reinforcing an upper-level trough over East Asia (Figure 3-7 (a)). This temporarily brought intense cold air masses
from Siberia to a wide area of East Asia (Figure 3-7 (b)). Figure 3-7 (c) indicates that the STJ over southern Eurasia
exhibited an undulating structure with a southward meander over East Asia, which also facilitated the southward
flow of cold air to the region. Conversely, extremely warm conditions were observed in association with wavy STJ
and PFJ conditions over Eurasia as per those seen during the cold spell (Figures 3-7 (a) – (c)), except with a generally
reversed geographical phase (Figures 3-7 (d) – (f)).

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Figure 3-7 (a, d) 500-hPa height and (b, e) 850-hPa temperature, and (c, f) 200-hPa stream function anomalies averaged(a-c) from 16th to 22nd December 2023 and (d-f) 11th to 20th February 2024.
(a, d) and (b, e): The contour intervals are (a, d) 60 m and (b, e) 4 °C. The shading denotes related anomalies. (c, f):
The contours indicate stream function anomalies at intervals of 3 × 10 6 m2/s, and the shadings show OLR anomalies[W/m2]. The vectors denote horizontal component of wave activity flux [m2/s2] defined by Takaya and Nakamura(2001).

(SATO Hirotaka, Tokyo Climate Center)
References
Kurihara, Y., T. Sakurai, and T. Kuragano, 2006: Global daily sea surface temperature analysis using data from satellite
microwave radiometer, satellite infrared radiometer and in-situ observations. Weather Service Bulletin, 73, Special issue,
s1-s18 (in Japanese).
Kosaka, Y., S. Kobayashi, Y. Harada, C. Kobayashi, H. Naoe, K. Yoshimoto, M. Harada, N. Goto, J. Chiba, K. Miyaoka, R.
Sekiguchi, M. Deushi, H. Kamahori, T. Nakaegawa; T. Y. Tanaka, T. Tokuhiro, Y. Sato, Y. Matsushita, and K. Onogi, 2024: The
JRA-3Q reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 102, 49-109. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2024-004
Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2001: A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory
quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow, J. Atom. Sci., 58, 608–627.
Watanabe, M., and M. Kimoto, 2000: Atmospheric-ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback.
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 3343–3369.
Watanabe, M., and M. Kimoto, 2001: Corrigendum. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 733–734.

<<Table of contents <Top of this article

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TCC and WMC Tokyo co-contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) bring together national, regional and international climate
experts on an operational basis to produce regional climate outlooks based on inputs from participating NMHSs,
regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and global producers of climate predictions. By providing aplatform for countries with similar climatological characteristics to discuss related matters, these forums ensure
consistency in terms of access to and interpretation of climate information. In spring 2024, TCC experts participatedin the following two RCOFs in Asia.
 The 28th summer session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28)
 The 20th session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (FOCRA II)
1. SASCOF-28
RCC Pune hosted the 28th summer session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) and Climate
Services User Forum (CSUF) from 29 April to 1 May 2024 in Pune, India.
South Asia is home to a quarter of the world’s population but occupies only 3% of its land area, making it themost densely populated region anywhere. Its climate is largely dependent on the Southwest Monsoon.
Approximately 70 – 80% of annual rainfall in most parts of the region occurs during the monsoon season (June –September), which has significant socio-economic effects on the region. The seasonal to inter-annual variability of
monsoon rainfall, both in amount and distribution, often results in severe droughts or floods, with large-scale
impacts on the agrarian sector in terms of production and food security. As there is a strong link between theeffects of the summer monsoon and overall socio-economic conditions in South Asian countries, the region
requires accurate, reliable and useful monsoon information and early warnings on related activity to support
programs for sustainable economic growth.
As part of WMO World Meteorological Centre (WMC) and TCC joint activities (co-activities), JMA expert madethe following two presentations. These presentations are expected to support the output of country-scale outlooks
by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the relevant regions.
 Summer monsoon season outlook based on JMA’s operational seasonal ensemble prediction system(JMA/MRI-CPS3) with probabilistic information on oceanographic conditions from the Indian Ocean to the
Pacific (El Niño southern oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, etc.) and associated atmospheric circulation patterns
 Recent joint activities involving WMC Tokyo and TCC roles, such as the launch of the Japanese Reanalysis for
Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q) and renewal of climate system monitoring products and statisticalmaterials based on JRA-3Q.
SASCOF-28 issued a climate outlook for the 2024 summer monsoon season (June – September). The subsequent
CSUF session focused on interfacing with users from the water, agriculture, disaster risk reduction and healthsectors for interpretation and assessment of seasonal climate information and elucidation of specific needs toward
the provision of further customized climate information.

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At the SASCOF meetingGroup photo at the conference center

At the CSUF meeting

At the office of the Director General,
India Meteorological Department

In front of the Indian Meteorological Department, Pune

2. FOCRA II
The 20th Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRA II)
was held from 9 to 11 May 2024 in Qingdao, Shandong, China. This landmark anniversary occasion drew more than
100 representatives from the WMO Secretariat and 24 countries and territories, including China, the United
Kingdom, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Attendees shared recent research results and discussed climate service
development, new technologies and applications such as AI, and climate projection and seasonal climate
prediction.
JMA representatives gave three presentations on the following and led discussions in a chairing role: Recent WMC Tokyo/TCC activities, including updates to JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system(JMA/MRI-CPS3), launch of the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q), and a startup planfor JMA seasonal tropical cyclone forecast.
 Climate monitoring diagnosis results for winter 2023/24 based on discussions by JMA’s Advisory Panel on
Extreme Climate Events
 Seasonal outlook for summer over Japan, including probabilistic forecasts, based on oceanographic conditions
from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and associated atmospheric circulation patterns predicted by
JMA/MRI-CPS3
FOCRA II issued a consensus outlook for summer climate conditions in the RA II region after discussions in thesummary session. Broad agreement was reached on enhancing collaboration between RCCs and NMHSs toward the
production of enhanced climate information for RA II.

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Presentation at FOCRA II

Discussions at FOCRA IIGroup photo and 20th anniversary cake, FOCRA II(SASCOF-28: TAKEMURA Kazuto, FOCRA II: SUGIMOTO Hiroyuki and NAKAMURA Tetsu, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

TCC contributions to the Report on the States of the Climate in Asia 2023
WMO’s State of the Climate in Asia 2023 report (published on 23rd April 2024) summarizes climatic conditions
and extreme weather events observed in 2023 and associated socio-economic impacts in the Asian region (RA II).
The report is intended for widespread reference in various fields relating to climate change.

At the 80th session of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP-80),
an online side-event was chaired by Ben Churchill, director of WMO’s Regional Office for Asia and the South-West
Pacific, to launch the report. Representatives from WMO, ESCAP, UNDRR, IMD, JMA gave presentations, with JMA
summarizing its contribution to the report together with IMD.
The contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and WMO Regional Climate
Centers (RCCs) were essential in compiling the report. TCC again made a significant contribution with its drafting of
input on regional temperatures/extreme events in RA II and tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean
and the South China Sea. Ongoing collaboration among Members and RCCs in RA II is expected to support future

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reporting in this field for the Asian region.

URL: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/68890-state-of-the-climate-in-asia-2023(TAKAHASHI Kiyotoshi, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

You can find the latest newsletter from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA Magazine
https://jicamagazine.jica.go.jp/en/"JICA magazine" is a public relations magazine published by JICA. It introduces the current situations ofdeveloping countries around the world, the people who are active in the field, and the content of their activities.
Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter
and/or the TCC website would be muchappreciated.
Please e-mail to tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: HARADA Masashi, TAKAHASHI Kiyotoshi)

Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
3-6-9 Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo 105-8431, Japan
TCC Website:
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html<<Table of contents

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