No. 55

Winter 2019
Contents

Page

Global surface temperature for 2018 the fourth highest since 1891

1

Highlights of the Global Climate in 20182

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 20184

TCC Activity Report for 2018

5

TCC contribution to WMO International Workshop on RCC Operations

7

Global surface temperature for 2018 the fourth highest since 1891
JMA analysis indicates that the annual anomaly of the
global average surface temperature for 2018 (i.e., the combined average of the near-surface air temperature over land
and the sea surface temperature) was +0.31°C above the1981 – 2010 average. This was the fourth-warmest year onrecord, with 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 making up the top
four in the 128-year period since 1891 (Figure 1). It is
known that the global mean surface temperature tends todecrease after a La Niña event, and despite the event occurring from autumn 2017 to spring 2018, 2018 ranked justbelow 2016 (the warmest), 2015 (the second warmest) and2017 (the third warmest).
On a longer time scale, the annual global average surface temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.73°C
per century. Twelve of the 13 warmest years on record
sincesince 1891 have occurred during this century (Table 1).
The recent high temperatures are thought to be affected by
the global warming trend due to increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations including carbon dioxide.
Moreover the global averaged surface temperature is affected by inter-annual to decadal natural fluctuations intrinsic to the earth’s climate.
In 2018, warm temperature deviations were particularly
evident over wide areas of Europe, East Asia and thesouthwestern USA (Figure 2).
JMA monitors monthly, seasonal and annual averageanomalies of global surface temperature. Those results areroutinely updated on the following TCC website:
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp.html(Shotaro Tanaka, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 1 Long-term change in the annual anomalies of
the global average surface temperature (1891 – 2018)
The black line with filled circles indicates anomalies of
surface temperature in each year. The blue line indicates
five-year running mean, and the red line indicates along-term linear trend. Anomalies are represented as deviations from the 1981 – 2010 average.

Figure 2 Annual mean temperature anomalies in 2018
The circles indicate anomalies of surface temperature averaged in 5° x 5° grid boxes. Anomalies are deviations
from the 1981 – 2010 average.

TCC News

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No. 55 | Winter 2019

Table 1 Ranking of annual global average temperatures
Rank

Year

Temperature Anomaly
w.r.t. 1981 – 2010 average

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

2016
2015
2017
2018
2014
1998
2013
2010
2005
2009
2006
2003
2002

+0.45
+0.42
+0.38
+0.31
+0.27
+0.22
+0.20
+0.20
+0.17
+0.16
+0.16
+0.16
+0.16

9
10

<< Table of contents

Highlights of the Global Climate in 2018
Annual mean temperatures were above normal in mostparts of the world, and were very high from Alaska tonorthwestern Siberia, in the southern part of East Asia,
from Micronesia to the central part of Southeast Asia, inthe western part of South Asia, from Europe to the Middle
East, in and around the southern part of Eastern Africa,
from the western to the southeastern USA, from Central
America to the eastern part of South America, and in Australia. Annual mean temperatures were below normal fromeastern Canada to the northern USA, and were very low inand around the northeastern part of Central Asia (Figure
3).
Extremely high summer temperatures were frequently
observed in the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 5), with record highs observed in Europe, East Asia and the southwestern USA. Seasonal mean temperatures for summer(June to August) were the highest on record in eastern(June to August) were the highest on record for this season
in eastern Japan, Korea, China and the southwestern USA.
Annual precipitation amounts were above normal from
Mongolia to northern China, from the eastern to the central
part of Central Asia, from the northwestern part of the
Middle East to the eastern part of Northern Africa, fromsouthern Europe to the northwestern part of Northern Africa, and from the northeastern to the southern USA. Annual precipitation amounts were below normal in the western part of Central Asia, from the northwestern part ofSouth Asia to the southern part of the Middle East, and insoutheastern Australia (Figure 4).
In Europe, contrasting incidences of extreme high andlow precipitation were frequently observed in southern andcentral parts, respectively (Figure 5).

Figure 3 Normalized annual mean temperature anomalies for 2018
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature
anomaly against the normal divided by its standard deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds ofeach category are -1.28, -0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. The
normal values and standard deviations are calculated from1981 – 2010 statistics. Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the observation data sample is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

Figure 4 Annual total precipitation ratios for 2018
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio tothe normal averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholdsof each category are 70, 100 and 120%. Land areas withoutgraphics represent regions for which the observation data
sample is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

TCC News2

No. 55 | Winter 2019

Major extreme climatic events and weather-related disasters occurring in 2018 are listed below (also see Figure5).

(14) Warm: from central to southern Europe (January,
April – October, December)(15) Wet: from southern Europe to the northwestern partof Northern Africa (January – June, August – October)(16) Warm: from the western part of Western Africa to thenorthwestern part of Middle Africa (June, August –September, November)(17) Heavy Rain: Nigeria (July – September)(18) Heavy Rain and Tropical Storm: from the northern tocentral part of Eastern Africa (March – May)
(19) Warm: from Mauritius to northwestern South Africa(June, August – September, December)(20) Wet: from the northeastern to southern USA (February, May, August – December)(21) Warm: from the southern part of North America to
the central part of Central America (February, May –September)(22) Wildfire: the western USA (July – September, November)(23) Warm: northeastern Brazil (June, August – September)(24) Drought: in and around northern Argentina (January– March)(25) Warm: from northern to central Argentina (February,
April, September)(26) Warm: from eastern to southern Australia (January,
March – April, July, October – December)(27) Drought: southeastern Australia (January – September)(Kenji Kamiguchi, Tokyo Climate Center)(1) Warm: from western Alaska to the eastern part ofEastern Siberia (January – April, September – October)(2) Warm: from the northwestern part of Eastern Siberia
to the northwestern part of Central Siberia (June,
August, October)(3) Cold: from southwestern Mongolia to northwestern
China (January, September, December)(4) Wet: in and around central Mongolia (January, July –September)(5) Warm: from northern Japan to northwestern China(March – August)(6) Heavy Rain: from eastern to western Japan (June –July)(7) Warm: from northwestern Micronesia to the northwestern part of Southeast Asia (February, May, July –August, October – December)(8) Dust Storm and Thunderstorm: northern India (May)(9) Heavy Rain: India (June – September)(10) Warm: from the southern part of Central Asia to thesoutheastern part of South Asia (January, March,
May – June, August, November)(11) Warm: in and around the Middle East (February –March, May – June, September)(12) Warm: the northern Scandinavian Peninsula (May,July, November)(13) Dry: in and around central Europe (February, May –November)Figure 5 Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters across the world in 2018
Schematic representation of major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters occurring during the year<< Table of contents

TCC News3

No. 55 | Winter 2019

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2018
1.

Annual characteristics
Japan’s climatic characteristics for 2018 can be summarized as follows:- The country experienced cold winter conditions (December 2017 – February 2018), and heavy snowfall
was observed on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan.
- Markedly high temperatures persisted from spring tosummer in eastern and western Japan.
- Record precipitation was observed in July aroundwestern Japan.
Two typhoons (Jebi (T1821) and Trami (T1824)) madelandfall on the country, causing wind storms and storm
surges nationwide.
2. Seasonal characteristics(a) Winter (December 2017 – February 2018)
Japan experienced cold winter conditions caused by thefrequent flow of strong masses of cold air over the country.
The seasonal mean temperature in western Japan was
1.2°C below the normal, making it the lowest in 32 years.
Due to the influx of developed snow clouds, frequent
heavy snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of the country
affected transportation. In the Fukui Prefecture region ofeastern Japan, snow accumulation amounted to 147 cm,
which was the highest in 37 years. In addition, heavy
snowfall occasionally hit the Pacific side of northern andeastern Japan due to the effects of developed low-pressure
systems.
(b) Spring (March – May)
A covering of warm air over the country made seasonalmean temperatures significantly above normal nationwide.
The temperature in eastern Japan was 2.0°C above normal,
making it the highest since 1946. From eastern Japan to
Okinawa/Amami, sunny conditions tended to prevail due
to frequent coverage by migrating high-pressure systems.
Conversely, heavy precipitation was occasionally observed
from northern to western parts of Japan due to moist air
flow associated with low-pressure systems passing aroundthe country.
(c) Summer (June – August)In early July, record precipitation was observed aroundwestern Japan. Major damage from landslides and floods
occurred in association with the Baiu front remaining overJapan’s mainland and huge amounts of moist air flowing
into the region.
From mid-July onward the Pacific and Tibetan Highs
expanded toward Japan, bringing a significantly earlier-than-normal end to the rainy season and extremely hot
conditions to eastern and western parts of the country. On
23 July, a national-record daily maximum temperature of
41.1°C was recorded in the Kumagaya area of eastern Japan. The seasonal mean temperature in eastern Japan was
1.7°C above normal, making it the highest since 1946.
Seasonal precipitation amounts on the Sea of Japan sideof northern Japan were significantly above normal due toan active rain front. Those on the Pacific side of westernJapan and in Okinawa/Amami were also significantly
above normal (the highest since 1946 in Okinawa/Amami)
TCC
due toNews
heavy rainfall brought by typhoons and the active 4
Baiu front.

Japan and in Okinawa/Amami were also significantly above
normal (the highest since 1946 in Okinawa/Amami) due toheavy rainfall brought by typhoons and the active Baiu
front.
(d) Autumn (September – November)
Seasonal mean temperatures in northern and eastern Japan were above normal as high-pressure systems expanded
to the east of the country, and the likelihood of effects fromcold-air masses from high latitudes was reduced. Seasonal
precipitation amounts were above normal in eastern/westernJapan and Okinawa/Amami due to an active rain front andtyphoons. In early September, the intense Typhoon Jebi
(T1821) made landfall on western Japan and moved northward. In addition, Typhoon Trami (T1824) made landfall onwestern Japan after approaching Okinawa and moved overeastern/northern parts of the country in late September.
These two typhoons brought wind storms, heavy precipitation, storm surges and high waves nationwide.
(Hiroshi Ohno, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 6 Time-series representation of five-day running mean temperature anomalies for subdivisions(January – December 2018)
The normal is the 1981 – 2010 average.

Figure 7 Annual climate anomalies/ratios for Japan
in 2018<< Table of contents

No. 55 | Winter 2019

TCC Activity Report for 2018
In 2018, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued tosupport the climate services of National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia-Pacific countries by
providing and enhancing data and products, holding training
seminars, dispatching experts and hosting visitors.

2. Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as an RCC in
RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, italso arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from
NMHSs to support exchanges of views on climate services
and the effective transfer of technology.

1. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC
website1.1 Issuance of special reports on extreme events
In a mandate role as a WMO Regional Climate Center(RCC) in Regional Association II (RAII), TCC monitors
world climate conditions with focus on Asia and its surrounding area. The Center issues reports on extreme climate
events and summaries of the Asian summer/winter monsoon on its website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/reports/ind
ex.html).
From December 2017 to February 2018, a series of extreme cold spells hit Japan and its surrounding areas, andcold air consequently prevailed nationwide. Against thisbackground, TCC issued a press release on primary factors
causing the severe winter conditions affecting the nation. A
total of three reports were issued in English and madeavailable on the TCC website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20180205.pdf,
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20180223.pdf,
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20180320.pdf).
In early July, Japan experienced significant rainfall particularly from western Japan to the Tokai region mainly(The Heavy Rain Event of July 2018), which caused widespread havoc nationwide. It was followed by heat wave thatpersisted over most of Japan in setting the highest temperature on record in late July. In this context, the Japan Meteorological Agency (with the help of the Tokyo Climate
Center Advisory Panel on Extreme Climatic Events (seeTCC News No. 28)) investigated atmospheric and oceanic
conditions considered to have contributed to such climate
extremes and summarized related primary factors. A comprehensive report is available on the website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20180822.pdf).
1.2 Questionnaire Survey regarding the Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlook
TCC’s Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlook
bulletin is mainly intended to assist NMHSs in the
Asia-Pacific region in interpreting and assessing the World
Meteorological Center Tokyo’s products for three-monthprediction and warm/cold season prediction and in understanding the current conditions of the climate system. As
around four years have passed since the product’s launch,
TCC has conducted a questionnaire survey for improvement based on feedback from NMHS staff. Aggregate results will be made available once processing is complete forreflection toward enhancement of the bulletin.

TCC News

2.1 Training seminar
TCC holds a training seminar in each of its fiscal years(from April to March), and also held a seminar on
one-month forecasts in November 2018. Details of theevents are reported in TCC News No. 54.
2.2 Expert visits and other follow-up activities
TCC experts visited the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration(PAGASA) in July, to hold a “TCC follow-up training
seminar on Seasonal Forecasts and on the basic operationof TCC’s Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate
System (iTacs)”. Discussions on future cooperation withPAGASA were also held (TCC News No. 53).
Other follow-up to previous TCC training seminars included hosting visiting experts at TCC and conducting
teleconferences to provide technical support.
3. International meetings
3.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to and leadprofound discussions in Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs). In 2018, TCC experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:- Fourteenth session of the Forum on Regional Climate
Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (FOCRA II-14) held in Nanning, China,
from 24 to 26 April- Twelfth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook
Forum (SASCOF-12) held in Pune, India, from 18 to 20
April- Thirteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook
Forum (SASCOF-13) held in Colombo, Sri Lanka, from26 to 28 September- Sixth session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook
Forum (EASCOF-6) held in Seoul, the Republic of Korea, from 7 to 9 November
TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions based on JMA’s numerical model and participated in
discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement on regional forecasts.
A TCC expert also gave an online presentation of theCenter’s climate outlook at the 11th session of the ASEAN
Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-11).

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No. 55 | Winter 2019

results and outlooks. In 2018, TCC News No. 51 – 54 were
issued and made available on the TCC website.
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s annual Climate
Change Monitoring Report 2017 is also available on the
TCC website.

3.2 WMO international Workshop on Global Review of
RCC Operations
In autumn 2018, TCC dispatched its RCC operations expert Akihiko Shimpo to the WMO International Workshop
on Global Review of RCC Operations, held from 12 to 14
November 2018 in Pune, India. Mr. Shimpo attended theworkshop and contributed to discussions on various aspects of RCC operations from regional and global-center
viewpoints.

5. Staff changes
Kiyotoshi Takahashi, who served as the head of TCC in
2016, transferred to work as the director of the Narita Aviation Weather Service Center on 1st April 2018. He was
succeeded by Yasushi Takatsuki, who previously workedon the coordination of activities regarding climate change
and global warming.

3.3 WMO RA II Working Group on Climate Services(WGCS)In December, TCC head Yasushi Takatsuki and TCC
expert Yasushi Mochizuki attended a meeting of the WMO
RA II Working Group on Climate Services (WGCS) in
Beijing, China, and engaged in discussions on the work of
the WGCS with special focus on implementation of the
Climate Services Information System (CSIS) on a regional
level in RA II.

6. Plans for 2019
- Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS)RCCs are expected to play a major role in the implementation of the GFCS. TCC plans to further strengthen its
activities and lead RA II’s contribution to the Framework.
Such activities include the provision of further assistanceto NMHSs for better climate services, as well as maintenance of the portal site for Information Sharing on Climate
Services in RA II.

3.4 Other meetings
TCC expert Atsushi Minami attended the second WMO
Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction held in Barcelona, Spain, from late May to early June. Mr. Minami
presented TCC’s various contributions in its mandated roleas an RCC supporting the operational climate prediction
work of NMHSs.
Mr. Takatsuki and Mr. Mochizuki attended the sixth
session of the Management Committee of the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services held in Rome, Italy,in October to contribute to the implementation and management of GFCS.
In March 2018, former TCC head Kiyotoshi Takahashi
attended the Scoping Meeting on the Implementation of
Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-N)
in Geneva, Switzerland, to consider needs and capabilities
relating to RCC operations in the Third Pole region. In
December 2018, TCC head Yasushi Takatsuki attended an
implementation planning meeting of the TPRCC-N in Beijing, China, to help develop a detailed implementation planfor the establishment of the network.

- New/upgraded data, products and tool development
A new web-based app designed to support the generation of one-month forecast guidance information will belaunched in the first half of 2019. This handy resource wastrialed at the previously reported training seminar in 2018,
and the valuable feedback received from trainees was considered for further improvement ahead of its release. TCC
also plans the imminent provision of new information andproducts based on the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) for better monitoring of droughts worldwide.
Further related efforts include investigation of teleconnection indices (e.g., the Arctic Oscillation Index) to enhance monitoring of atmospheric circulation with the useof the JRA-55 long-term reanalysis dataset. TCC plans topublish the investigation results and the indices on its website as soon as material is ready.

4. Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on aquarterly basis since 2005. The publication is intended toenhance communication and provide information to
NMHSs and related communities about recent TCC developments, events and activities as well as details of theCenter’s reports on the state of the climate, monitoring
results and outlooks. In 2018, TCC News No. 51 – 54 were
issued and made available on the TCC website.

TCC News- Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual
training seminar with a dozen invited experts as attendees.
The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to
NMHSs as necessary and host visitors from NMHSs uponrequest.
(Yasushi Mochizuki, Tokyo Climate Center)<< Table of contents

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No. 55 | Winter 2019

TCC contributions to WMO RCC Review Workshop
The WMO International Workshop on Global Review ofRegional Climate Centre (RCC) Operations was held from12 to 14 November 2018 in Pune, India. Its purposes wereto provide a platform for a review of operations, methodologies, products/services and institutional arrangements ofall existing RCCs and RCC-networks, to identify related
deficiencies and requirements, to propose ways for smooth
future-oriented operations and sustainable development ofRCCs, and to promote sustained uptake of relevant services and products by NMHSs. More than 30 experts from
RCCs and other international organizations around theworld attended,

RCCs and other international organizations around theworld attended, with one TCC expert contributing to discussions on aspects of RCC operations from the viewpointof lessons learnt from TCC activities over the decade or sosince its designation in 2009. The meeting materials areavailable on the website (http://www.wmo.int/pages/
prog/wcp/wcasp/meetings/global_rcc_review_2018.php).
The outcomes and recommendations of the event are expected to help RCCs and RCC-networks improve implementation in the field.
(Akihiko Shimpo, Tokyo Climate Center)<< Table of contents

You can also find the latest newsletter from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA’s World (January 2019)https://www.jica.go.jp/english/publications/j-world/1901.html
JICA’s World is the quarterly magazine published by JICA. It introduces various cooperation projects and partners alongwith the featured theme. The latest issue features “The New JICA Story 10 Years and Beyond Leading the world withtrust”.
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Yasushi Takatsuki, Yasushi Mochizuki
and Atsushi Minami)

TCC News

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No. 55 | Winter 2019