How Should One View the Current Status of Syria and the Awareness among Syrians?
(CMEPS-J Report No. 39)

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How Should One View the Current Status of Syria andthe Awareness among Syrians?
CMEPS-J Report No. 39 (Updated on August 27, 2018)
Yutaka TAKAOA (Chief Research Fellow, Middle East Institute of Japan)

I.

“Middle East Public Opinion Poll (Syria 2016, 2017)”

The recapturing of areas occupied by the “Islamic State” in several regions of Iraq and Syria, including the Mosul recapture
operation of the Iraq army, has clarified the signs of defeat of the faction. Amidst this, in both Iraq and Syria, all the parties in theconflict are strengthening their actions in anticipation of the “Islamic State.” Further, as the authors have pointed out from time totime, with respect to the Syrian conflict, various parties are acting in anticipation of the “post-conflict” situation in Syria. Issues
such as the referendum problem that questions the independence of the Kurdistan district in Iraq, the YPG attacks in Syria by theTurkish forces, and the occupation of the Iraq border region by the American army are all results of decisions by each party onhow to acquire an advantageous position in Iraq and Syria following the subjugation of the “Islamic State.”
In such a situation, two important concerns are (1) how the general populace of Syria, which has been alienated from thedevelopment and outcomes of the Syrian conflict and has been suffering from the horrors of the conflict, will continue to live and(2) what kind of consideration is being given to the various problems surrounding this general populace. To ascertain the living
conditions and awareness of the general Syrian populace, is it enough to “go into the field” in a confined place for a short periodof time and merely listen to the opinions of a few people familiar to the investigators? There is a certain importance andsignificance in “going into the field”; however, it would be impossible to “represent the entire Syrian society” in limited
experiences and human relationships. In the hopes of answering this query, a public opinion poll was conducted, targeting thegeneral Syrian public living in Syria.
For this poll, the Syrian Opinion Center for Polls & Studies (SOCPS) provided full cooperation with respect to theimplementation of the survey and the final adjustment of questionnaire contents, sampling, and interviewing of candidates,including data entry. The survey was conducted targeting 1500 people in Damascus Governorate and Rif Damascus Governorate,
Homs, Latakia, Aleppo, and al-Hasakah governorates, representing each of the five regions of Syria. The implementation of thesurvey clarified that SOCPS had proposed a revision of the questionnaire according to their concerns and had added their own
questions at certain places. Therefore, it is unlikely that the institutions conducting the poll or the Syrian authorities in thebackground had “prepared the responses in advance.” Further, it was a general poll, but it is precisely in a dictatorship that asurvey becomes necessary to know the residents’ intentions because in a “dictatorship,” the authority cannot know public opinion
through election results. Polls are conducted in many such cases. In this survey, the Syrian side particularly indicated interest in
the items “satellite broadcasting stations that you trust/do not trust” and “things deemed important when moving outside Syria.”
Please refer to the link at the end of the document for a simple tally report of survey results. Further, if one closely observes thecollection of questions, one can see that the institutions conducting the poll or the respondents are strongly interested in the“religious conditions of the respondents” and more detailed responses were received by the authors than expected.

II.

Life of the Syrians

As a result of the conflict, social capital and production facilities have been destroyed, and numerous people who would be better
involved in production activities are engaged in combat or have fled outside the country. Further, several Syrians are living inpoverty and destitution. As seen in the graph, as per the 2016 and 2017 surveys, more than 70% of the people have a monthly
income of less than 200 US dollars, revealing serious impoverishment among the populace.

How Should One View the Current Status of Syria and the Awareness among Syrians?
(CMEPS-J Report No. 39)

2On the other hand, the percentage of people with less than 200 dollars monthly income reduced from 88% in 2016 to 75% in
2017. Incomes have particularly improved in the al-Hasakah Governorate, where the fighting subsided relatively early. These
results indicate that the current situation requires (1) expanding the regions without hostilities in a form conducive to economic
activity and to the recovery of people’s lives and (2) a support that contributes to the improvement of people’s living conditionsin addition to the humanitarian aid provided as a stopgap measure to cope with an emergency.

Per Capita Monthly Income（Outside: 2017, Inside: 2016)

7%
8%

3%

12%
15%

15%

29%

34%
44%
29%

No income

0-100 US dollars

101-200 US dollars

201-300 US dollars

301-400 US dollars

401-500 US dollars

More than 500 US dollars

Do not know

III. Awareness among Foreign Countries
In the Syrian conflict, various countries have intervened with various intentions, and these interventions were termed “support”
for Syria. The following Table 1. summarizes the responses to the question of how to evaluate the “support” from each country
to the Syrians. The question of how to interpret the word “support” was left to each individual respondent, but people under thecontrol of the Syrian government and the pro-government political force evaluated the countries highly supporting thegovernment militarily and politically, such as Russia, Iran, and China. In contrast, the evaluation was low for countries such as
Saudi Arabia and Qatar supporting the “dissident factions” and “radical armed Islamism” and for most of the Western countries.
On the other hand, Germany, Sweden, and Japan were placed in the relatively highly evaluated group. The policies of thegovernments of these supporting countries with respect to the Syrian conflict are not restricted to their friendly relations with thegovernment and the pro-government forces but are interesting because they reflect the image held by Syrians people in thosecountries.
Furthermore, the people who responded as “really want to stay (abroad)” and “want to stay (abroad)” were requested to answer
the following question: “Please name three foreign countries you would like to stay in, in the order of priority.” In response tothis question, the top five responses were Germany, the United States, Sweden, Canada, and Japan. The “support” extended byboth Germany and Sweden was highly evaluated, and the fact that both these countries topped the list of foreign countries inwhich people wanted to stay indicates that they have a good reputation among the Syrians, primarily for their acceptance andtreatment of immigrants and refugees from Syria.

How Should One View the Current Status of Syria and the Awareness among Syrians?
(CMEPS-J Report No. 39)

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Table 1

JordanGermany
IranBritainRussiaSaudi Arabia
SwedenChina
FranceQatar
LebanonThe United StatesJapan

Evaluatedhighly%
5.1
12.3
36.4
6.1
50.8
6.7
8.2
27.3
5.5
5.1
6.9
5.9
8.6

Evaluated

Usual%
6.5
15.7
32.5
6.121.3
6.6
15.2
26.1
4.4
5.5
10.5
6.4
8%
12.9
22.1
14.6
9
10.6
7
24.9
23.2
11.2
8.5
28.1
8.2
23.7

Not evaluatedso well%
14.5
19.6
6.3
15.8
5.2
6.3
20.6
9.6
13.4
6.1
23.2
7.8
19.1

Not evaluatedwell at all%
56.3
26.1
7.3
54.1
9.9
70.1
20.9
9.4
58.1
72.2
26.8
65.9
21.9

Not known%
4.8
4.2
2.8
9
2.2
3.3
10.3
4.4
7.4
2.7
4.5
5.7
18.7

IV. Awareness regarding Syria’s Relations with Japan
What then do the people of Syria think about the support from Japan or about Syria’s relations with Japan? Table 2. provides theresponses to the question “To what extent do you agree with the following views on the relationship between your country (Syria)
and Japan, and about the social situation in your country?” Certainly, with respect to either opinion, the responses “agree to agreat extent” and “agree” constituted the majority; however, it is interesting that (1) “more than the acceptance of refuges, it isabout the provision of opportunities to study abroad and the vocational training that the expectations are high” and (2) “more than
the acceptance of companies, aid organizations, and NGOs, there was stronger agreement for the view that it is better to improvebilateral relations between the two countries.”
Table 2

Relations with Japan
Japan should accept young (Syrianresidents) who wish to study and train inJapan
Japan should accept Syrian refugees
There should be improvement in thebilateral relations between thegovernments of both Syria and JapanThe activities of Japanese companies
should be accepted
The activities of the political institutions ofJapan including JICA should be accepted
The activities of the NGOs and NPOs ofJapan should be accepted
0204060

Agree to a large extent ％Agree ％

Usual ％Do not agree much ％Do not agree at all ％Do not know ％80100

How Should One View the Current Status of Syria and the Awareness among Syrians?
(CMEPS-J Report No. 39)

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President al-Assad and the Syrian government have repeatedly expressed that it is necessary to improve bilateral relations prior
to involvement in aid and reconstruction in the Syrian territory. While this may have potentially influenced the answers of therespondents, several countries cut off diplomatic relations with Syria during the conflict period. On the other hand, it is also
possible that in general, the Syrians are dissatisfied with attitude of foreign governments seeking Syrian cooperation in counter
terrorism or migrant / refugees issue without improving bilateral relations. And Syrians may be dissatisfied to foreign countries
which is attempting to be engaged to assistance and reconstruction without coordinating to Syrian government.

V.

Conclusion

Naturally, depending on the place of the implementation of the survey, including Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and the various
countries of the European Union (EU), differences are bound to be in the experiences and awareness of the Syrians living there.
This within-Syria survey may not be sufficient to gain knowledge about the awareness of the entire Syrian population. Criticism
about this aspect should rather be more along the lines of “the awareness of the Syrian people living outside Syria” and should
not focus on “conducting a public opinion poll under the control of the Syrian dictatorship is meaningless”. Currently, a surveyof the awareness among the Syrians living in Turkey is being prepared, and research is in progress on Sweden as well, which isa highly popular destination among residents of EU countries.
Further, the issue regarding how to analyze the information shown in the poll results is also important. In any kind of survey,
it is natural for respondents to be influenced by the circumstances around them and to respond to something they are concerned
about. It is important to analyze why this kind of response was given and not just interpret the numbers. To comment on Syria
and the Syrians who cannot obtain sufficient information about on-site conditions due to the conflict, above all, the ability to think
and analyze is particularly essential.
Finally, I would like to raise the question of what kind of attitude Japan and the Japanese should have in the future with respect
to Syria and the Syrian conflict. Syria is not a large oil-producing country and is distant from Japan. In addition, considering thevarious restrictions imposed on the security of Japan and its diplomacy, there is little that can be done, with the end result being
apathy. However, issues such as the bilateral relations between the two countries and the acceptance of study and training of
Syrian refugees are not matters that are better left to the government agencies and institutions directly involved in them. They
should instead be evaluated by the voters and investors of the general public in Japan that is essentially directing the government
agencies and institutions. An attitude of “finding what to do” in Japan with regard to Syria, compelled by the demands ofinternational organizations or foreign news media is not as effective as the idea of what citizens “want to do.” I hope that thisseries of public opinion polls will provide hints in that direction.

References
Simple Tally Report of “Middle East Public Opinion Poll (Syria 2017)”.
Simple Tally Report of Middle East Public Opinion Poll (Syria 2016)”.