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Yasufumi Yamaguchi
September 2018
No.107

INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCEUNIVERSITY OF TOKYOÚuģĨğĭ±ȚȘȣųÝȜȥȎȄȇȗ
ȖȁȏȅȔȍȠȦȝȨȚȨȍȢȨȐ No. 107
2018  9 ÒJLPS-HTƺ ôVȪÚuuƧȮË×ř¼ŐȫËǧË×ģǥǈǍǺƸÞċǧƖƈƚµȧȆȟȢȀ¯ǾáŦǒǠǅǌǡȬƸJŉǾƠÕĕǉǞÕĕǥƑƇǒȬƸÞhÎȮJâ¡OÇǥûǝǠtǌǧ¬mǾ¤ǠǅǺǀÚuģğȧƸ
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ŇǾĠůǔǺƾéǥȪȯȫ8ÕōŕǊǣǧǷǆǥċǓǠǅǺǧǉȬȪȰȫdĲ,[Ǣ)ă«ǧƣǥƤƕǨŞǸǻǺǧǉȬǧ 2 Ǟǧ7ÛǾƔǓǠȬJLPS-H ǥǈǍǺæ×ōŕǧ,[ǾÌǸǉǥǔǺƾÑ¡ǥǘǻǸǾƉǰǇǠȬJLPS-H ǧ7ÛȬǪǅǠǨƸÞhÎǾƄÿǢǔǺȚȘȣųÝőǥǞǅǠŸŵǾŘǆƾǤǈȬ;ƐǧǷǆǥ JLPS-H Ǩİ 14 óǰǡÈǑǻǠǅǺǊȬ×ĬǡǨİ 132óǰǡČǅǺǏǢǢǔǺƾ/ƐǧǷǆǥȬæ×ōŕǢǘǻǥǝǠċǓǺșȂȀȏǧcƵǨȚȘȣųÝőǥ3ÓǑǻǠǅǺŲƵǡǄǹȬg4scǽǕtǌǧáŦǊƝǦǸǻǠǋǚȪþ 2012ȫƾ
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65.4
64.1

1 !"

 !



41.1
38.4
20.5
54.8
29.9
15.4
51.8
30.5
17.7
54.6
27.6
17.9
49.3
32.4
18.3
47.0
35.0
18.0
48.0
32.3
19.7
46.0
34.3
19.7
45.2
35.7
19.2
48.3
32.9
18.8
48.1
34.4
17.5
48.4
33.5
18.1
47.8
32.4
19.8

0.25

!3






33.1
41.5
41.6
41.0
37.9
40.9
34.9
38.1
35.6
34.7
35.9
36.9
35.6

31.7
31.1
29.6
29.6
31.9
30.5
31.8
30.6
30.4
32.2
31.2
30.7
32.2

33.1
23.0
24.6
25.1
25.9
24.5
29.5
27.3
30.2
29.3
29.3
28.7
28.4





2.1
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.34.1
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8



Ś 2 ǾŞǺǢȬǵǨǹİ 1 óǉǸİ 2 óǥǉǍǠǧuşçǤæ×ōŕǥƪǒȬl×«ǧ7
ǊuǋǌrDǒǠǅǺǏǢǊ7ǉǺƾ«9ǡǨď«<XǊķ 6ȩúǒȬ6ƊƸÞȡȦȇȮī9ǨƖƈtåÞȬơƸÞȧĨǧ<XǊúǒǠƖÞǧ<XǊuǋǌp>ǒǠǅǺƾǰǚȬƸ 3 Î
Þ4¯ŃǨǧ<XǊp>ǒȬǊúǒǠǅǺƾ
ǴǝǢǴȬȋȦȜȣȋȂȐǊǑǌǤǝǚǏǢǴǄǝǠȬİ 2 óƥǥǴl×«ǧ7ǊǘǻǤǹǥrGǒǠǅǺǏǢǊĠůǡǋǺƾ
(2) K=·\ƽİ 2 óōŕƽ1dĲƽǘǒǠ¥õǔǺǧǨűǉ
ǴǝǢǴȬ«9ǢƸÞȡȦȇȮī9Ȭ¯ŃǧƣǥǴƤƕǊŞǸǻǺǏǢǾňǇǻǩȬŜÅǧ«ŝeǢdĲ,[ǧƣǧƤƕǨYÎǥáŦǔǺ¨ŝǊǄǺƾǘǏǡȬǏǧĳǡǨdĲ,[Ǿ£rÅǢǒǚǅǌǞǉǧ

ƲȥȎȏȕȁȔȇd7ÛǾŘǅȬǘǻǸǧƣǧƤƕǾáŦǔǺƾ

Ñ8ǥŘǆǧǨȬİ 1 óǉǸİ 2 óǥǉǍǠǧæ×ōŕǧáŦǡǄǺƾǏǧțȄȨȐǡǨȬİ
2 óƥǧȚȘȣųÝǬǧM>ǥ©ŶǔǺǧǉȬİ 2 óǧųÝĥǥdĲǒƏƒǔǺǉȬǢǅǆ
2 ǞǧōŕȒȂȞȦȈǊǄǹȬ2 ĳǡţǻǚǷǆǥȬǘǻǙǻǧşŝeǊĔǤǝǠǅǺUŌ«ǊǄǺƾǘǻǙǻǥǞǅǠȬİ 1 ódĲŉǾ7ÛŻǢǒǚƲȥȎȏȕȁȔȇd7ÛǾŘǅȬÀļÜǾŚ 3 ǥĢǒǚƾǏǻǾŞǺǢȬȚȘȣ©ŶǢİ 2 ódĲǧǘǻǙǻǥNǯǔƱǧ,[ǊŏǒǠǅǺ)ă«ǢƱǧ,[ǊǵǵĔǤǺ)ă«ǊǄǺǏǢǊ7ǉǺƾkěǵĞěǡǨħčěǥíǭǠȬȚȘȣųÝǬǧM>ǥ©ŶǒȬƪİ 2 óǥdĲǒǵǔǅ,[ǥǄǺƾĤwěǨİ 2ódĲǥǒǠǨĽťĕǥÓ®ǥǤǝǠǅǤǅǊȬǏǻǨæýŰǊȚȘȣ©ŶǥíǭǠuǋ5ǅǚǳǡǄǹȬ%ÅǧÀ*ǨȚȘȣ©ŶǥǔǺǴǧǢuǋǌrǽǸǤǅƾǰǚȬƸJ¡ÔȮƖƈǊƖǵÖǛǢŊǥíǭǠȚȘȣųÝǥ©ŶǒǵǔǌȬİ 2 óǥǴdĲǒǠǌǻǺ,[ǥǄǺǏǢǊ7ǉǺƾÇȬÞȡȦȇǨơƸÞȧĨǧċ¢ǛǢƖƈtåÞǧċ¢ǥíǭǠȚȘȣųÝǬǧdĲǥ©ŶǒǠǌǻǺ,[ǥǄǺǊȬƪǥİ 2 óǥdĲǒǠǌǻǺĠćǨƖƈtåÞǢĽťĕǥÓ®ǤǊǤǅƾǲǒǼİ 2 óǥdĲǒǠǌǻǺǧǨȬȚȘȣųÝǬǧ©ŶǥǨƖƈtåÞǧċ¢ǢƘǅǊŞǸǻǤǉǝǚƖÞǧċ¢ǡǄǺƾǰǚȬĀdĲŉǾƨǍǩȚȘȣųÝǬǧ©Ŷ,[ǥ¯ŃǥǷǺƘǅǨŞǸǻǤǅǧǥǒȬƪǥǨǷǹ¯ŃǊƸǉǝǚǮǣİ 2 óųÝǥdĲǒǠǌǻǺ,[ǥǄǺƾ>ǇǠȬȚȘȣųÝǬǧ©ŶǥǒǠǨŽǧ%ÅǾĢǒǠǅǚy«ȓȞ
ȨǊİ 2 óǬǧdĲǥǨ 10ȩîýǤǊǸÓ®ǥêǧ,[ǾĢǒǠǈǹȬy«Ǩď«ǥíǭǠİ
2 óǥdĲǒǠǌǻǺ,[ǥǄǺǏǢǊ7ǉǝǚƾŚ 3ƺ ȚȘȣųÝǬǧ©ŶȬİ 2 óǧdĲÓĀǾ£rÅǢǒǚƲȥȎȏȕȁȔȇd7Û)$.
Exp(B)

*F
B
S.E.

+L7O;+ 8CM
+
0.926
-0.077
J2-<L7O@:<M!<1.256 0.228**>%<
1.621 0.483***?%<1.2300.207*
B15/'KL7O174M
1840.905-0.099194
8C
1.056
0.054
2 L7OHG32M
H2
1.044
0.043
"IJ2 "IA
1.374 0.318***J(&0N HGL7O#EM
 =
1.617 0.480***"I2
1.549 0.438***1
 8C
1.285
0.251†
2,DL7O M
 
1.084
0.081
 
1.014
0.014
8C
0.216 -1.534***90.194 -1.639***
6Mn=7,563, ***p<0.000 **p<0.001 *p<0.05 †p<0.1

Exp(B)

B25CB

S.E.

(0.054)1.213

0.193†(0.099)(0.080)(0.071)(0.093)

1.3991.328
1.245

0.336*
0.284*
0.219(0.142)(0.132)(0.161)(0.074)(0.207)

1.006
1.313

0.006
0.272

(0.136)(0.353)(0.065)(0.076)

1.542
1.207

0.433*** (0.116)
0.188(0.150)(0.083)(0.087)(0.130)

2.049
2.074
1.843

0.717*** (0.170)
0.730*** (0.178)
0.612* (0.250)(0.065)(0.066)(0.350)(0.114)

1.302
0.727
0.401
0.021

0.264*-0.319*-0.915-3.857***(0.111)(0.128)(0.592)(0.226)

ǡǨȬǘǧ¡ǧųÝǥǔǺdĲ,[ǴȬYåǥ)ă«ǥǷǝǠĔǤǝǠǅǺǧǛǼǆǉƾļ
ÜǨĚēǔǺǊȬİ 3 óȳİ 13 óǧWóǬǧdĲÓĀǥǔǺ)ă«ǧƱǧ,[ǨȬĽťĕÓ®«ǧÓĀǵ%ÅǧuǋǑǊƛrGǔǺǏǢǨǄǝǠǴȬuǋǤƘǅǨŞǸǻǤǅƾǏǻ
Ǩİ 1 óǉǸİ 2 óǬǧƥǥǈǍǺōŕǊņǾ´ǅǠuǋǌȬİ 2 óƥǡdĲŉǥtǧrDǊǄǝǠǴȬİ 1 ódĲŉǢíǭǚ+ǹÇǥǘǻǮǣƱǒǤǅǚǳǛǢňǇǸǻǺƾ
6ǢǨǅǇȬİ 2 óƥǔǭǠǧųÝǥdĲǒǠǌǻǚȉȨȏǨ 90 ǢƯǥǤǅƾWóǡdĲŉǊǒǕǞ0ǻÐǽǹǤǊǸȬ500 ȉȨȏ;¡ǧdQÅǾŀ¹ǡǋǠǅǺǏǢǥǤǺƾİ 1 ó
ǉǸľĿǒǠdĲǾĿǍǠǅǺdĲŉǨǣǧǷǆǤƿǤǧǛǼǆǉƾǰǚȬİ 2 óǡȋȦȜȣǉǸ
ōŕǒǤǊǸǴȬ¡ǧųÝǡ¥õǔǺdĲŉǨǣǧǷǆǤƿǛǼǆǉƾ
Ś 4 ǥĢǒǚǧǨȬİ 1 óǉǸİ 13 óǰǡ1ǠdĲǔǺǧǨǣǧǷǆǤƿǉǾ7ÛǒǚļÜ
ǡǄǺƾ1ǠdĲǒǚȉȨȏǊ 90 ǢǤǌȬæýŰǊuǋǌǤǝǠǅǺǚǳǥWąĮrÅǧ%ÅǊÓ®ǥǤǹǥǌǌǤǝǠǅǺǴǧǧȬǅǌǞǉǧrÅǊĽťĕǥÓ®ǢǤǝǠǅǺƾ
İ 2 ódĲǧÓĀǥǈǍǺ,[ǢYåǥȬy«Ǩď«ǷǹǴ1ǠǧųÝǥdĲǒǵǔǌȬkěȧĞěȪȧ10ȩîýǡǨĤwěȫǧƸÞ6ƊŉǨħčěǧnXǥíǭǠ1ǠǧųÝǥdĲǒǵǔǅƾƸ 3 ÎǧÞ4¯ŃǊȧĀdĲǛǝǚċ¢Ǩ1ųÝdĲŉǡǨǤǅ,[ǥǄǺƾĀdĲǨǔǭǉǸǌǀ1dĲŉǁǡǤǅǚǳǥǢǰǢǳǚǊȬǢĀdĲǡǰǢǳǠǴYåǥ
ǀǁǊÓ®ǢǤǺǚǳȬ¯ŃǛǝǚǊ1ųÝdĲŉǥǤǹǥǌǅǧǛǢǅǇǺƾİ 1 óÎƹȬÞȡȦȇȬƸJ¡ÔȮƖƈǨȬ%ÅǨuǋǅǴǧǧæýŰǊuǋǅǚǳǉĽťĕǥÓ®ǥǨǤǝǠǅǤǅƾ
Ś 4ƺ İ 1 óȳİ 13 ó1dĲŉǉǘǻsǉǾ£rÅǢǒǚ

Exp(B)

ƲȥȎȏȕȁȔȇd7Û

B$C/F3$0;D
$
1.155
0.144†
A*&4C/F824D
4
1.254
0.226†
6 4
1.480 0.392***
7 4
1.264
0.235:1-'"BC/F17,D
18,0.864-0.147
19, 0;
0.646-0.437
*C/F?>+*D?*
1.008
0.008
@A*@9
1.362
0.309*
A#!(E ?>C/F=D
5
1.565
0.448**
@*
1.557
0.443**) 0;
1.492
0.400**%<C/F D
0.969-0.031
 
1.099
0.095
0;
0.177
-1.733*
10.050 -2.987***.Dn=7,563, ***p<0.000 **p<0.001 *p<0.05 †p<0.1

S.E.
(0.086)(0.126)(0.112)(0.146)(0.112)(0.379)(0.101)(0.121)(0.139)(0.140)(0.201)(0.104)(0.101)(0.719)(0.182)İ 2 óōŕǉǸǧ¥õǢ)ă«ƣǧƤƕǾŞǚǧǊŚ 5 ǡǄǺƾ¥õŉǨ 646 ȉȨȏǡǄǝ
ǚƾǏǻǾǱǺǢȬǵǨǹİ 2 óǬǧdĲǵ1dĲǢYåǥȬ10ȩîýǡǨǄǺǊy«Ǩď«ǥ
7íǭǠ¥õǒǵǔǌȬkěȪ10ȩîýȫȧĞěǧƸÞ6ƊŉǨħčěǧnXǥíǭǠ¥õǒǵǔǅǏǢǊ7ǉǺƾ>ǇǠȬŊŉǨǘǻsǥíǭǠ¥õǒǥǌǅǢǅǇǺƾǰǚȬƸ 3 ÎǧÞ4¯ŃǊĀdĲǡǄǝǚnXǨ¥õǒǥǌǅǢǅǆ,[ǊǄǺƾŚ 5ƺ İ 2 óōŕǉǸǧ¥õǾ£rÅǢǒǚ

ƲȥȎȏȕȁȔȇd7Û

Exp(B)

B$C/F3$0;D
$
2.012
0.692**
A*&4C/F824D
42.408
0.878*
6 4
2.384
0.876*
7 4
2.069
0.727†:1-'"BC/F17,D
18,1.172
0.164
19, 0;
2.332
0.859
*C/F?>+*D?*
1.155
0.147
@A*@90.716-0.333A#!(E ?>C/F=D
5
1.696
0.509
@*0.928-0.083) 0;
1.753
0.576
*%<C/F D

1.053
0.097
 0;0.484-0.778*
10.003 -5.879***.Dn=7,563, ***p<0.000 **p<0.001 *p<0.05 †p<0.1

S.E.
(0.234)(0.377)(0.361)(0.424)(0.327)(0.646)(0.252)(0.420)(0.390)(0.438)(0.543)(0.239)(0.311)(0.609)×ĬǡǨȬJLPS-H Ǌ¶ǇǺcƵǢǒǠȚȘȣųÝǉǸǧæ×ōŕǾRǹǎȬ8ÕōŕǢǘǧ¡ǧdĲ,[Ȫ1dĲȬ¥õȫǊǣǧǷǆǤ)ă«Ǿ¹ǞȉȨȏǥǈǅǠċǓǵǔǅǧǉǾá
Ŧǒǚƾ
7ÛǧļÜǉǸȬJLPS-H ǧİ 2 óƥǧȖȨȒǥǨȬ«9ǵƸÞ±hěȬÞȡȦȇȬƸJ
¡ƖƈȬƸ 3 ÎǧÞ4¯Ńıǧ«ǥǷǝǠ+ǹǊċǓǠǅǺǏǢǊ7ǉǝǚƾy«ǵƖÞJâċȬ¯ŃǛǝǚǧdĲǊǷǹǌPÍǑǻǚȖȨȒǛǢǅǆǏǢǡǄǺƾ
ǏǻǾƉǰǇǺǢȬJLPS-H ǧİ 2 óƥǾ]ǳǚ7ÛǥǞǅǠǧǏǢǾºÃǡǋǺƾ
ǰǕİ 2 óƥǧWóǾ7ÛǔǺƪǥǨȬWóǡtƘǅǨǄǺǴǧǧȬǘǧȖȨȒǊųÝƢ
|Îǥ­ǑǻǚìƫfǷǹǴy«ȬkěȧĞěȪȧĤwěȫ±hÞ6ƊŉȬƖÞ6ƊŉȬƸJ¡ƖŉȬƸ 3 Î¯Ńǥ+ǝǚǴǧǡǄǺǏǢǾůŷǒǠǈǌ¨ŝǊǄǺƾǏǻǨİ
1 óǢȖȨȒǾĸǟǍǠ7ÛǔǺƪǴYåǡǄǺƾ
ǰǚȬİ 1 óǉǸİ 13 óǾ1Ǡ"ČǔǺnXǥǨȬy«ȬkěȧĞěȧĤwě±hÞ68ƊŉȬƸ 3 Î¯Ńǥ+ǝǚǴǧǡǄǺǏǢǾůŷǔǺ¨ŝǊǄǺǢǅǇǺƾǤǈȬ1óǡǨǤǅǴǧǧ 3 óǾ:ČǔǺnXǥǞǅǠǨȬ×ĬǡǨ7ÛǾŘǝǠǅǤǅǴǧǧYåǥăǧǥ+ǝǚȖȨȒǢǤǝǠǒǰǆUŌ«ǊƸǅƾǘǧǚǳȬǣǧǷǆǤ+ǹǊŞǸǻǺǧǉǾĠůǒǠǉǸ7ÛǾŘǆǏǢǊïǳǸǻǺƾȖȨȒǥ+ǹǊǱǸǻǺƪǧ©ǢǒǠǥňǇǸǻǺǧǨǧ 2 ǞǡǄǺƾ

1 ǞǨȬȖȨȒǧ+ǹǾ;ÁǢǒǠcƵŨǵŸŵȬļŵǧÁĢǾŘǆǏǢǡǄǺƾǚǢǇǩİ 1óǉǸİ 13 óǰǡ1ǠǾ"ČǔǺnXǥȬy«ǥ+ǹǊǱǸǻǺǚǳǥy«ǥƦǒǠ7ÛǾŘǝǚǹȬy«ǊtǅȖȨȒǾ.ǥǒǚ7ÛļÜǡǄǺǏǢǾÌĢǒǚǹǔǺǏǢǊǡǋǺǛǼǆƾy«ǧľĿȋȦȜȣǾĠ'ǡǋǺǏǢǨ JLPS-H ȖȨȒǧuǋǤ:ÿǡǄǺƾy«ǧȡȂțȊȨȏǨď«ǥíǭǠtåǡǄǹȬtåǤȆȟȢȀǾȚȘȣȧȖȨȒǡáŦǡǋǺǏǢǧ®ŇǨuǋǅǢŤǇǺƾ
Ǵǆ 1 ǞǨȬĽť²òǾČǅǠȖȨȒǧ+ǹǾśêǒǠǒǰǆǏǢǡǄǺƾǏǧ 20 ǮǣǧƣǥȬ
ȚȘȣųÝǥǈǍǺæ×ōŕǢǘǻǥǝǠċǓǺșȂȀȏǥǞǅǠǨŸŵǊƖǳǸǻǠǈǹȬ
Inverse Probability Weighting òǾǨǓǳǢǒǠȬǘǧǷǆǤșȂȀȏǾśêǔǺĽť²òǊÁĢǑǻǠǅǺȪWooldridge 2002Ȭj× 2006ȫƾǏǧǷǆǤĽť²òǧƙČ#Ǩ¯ǧȚȘȣų
ÝǊ§ǡǄǹȬƸÞhÎǾƄÿǢǔǺǷǆǤȚȘȣųÝǥǔǺBÜǨÌǸǉǡǨǤǅǴǧǧȬ"ČǾáŦǔǺ!iǨH7ǥǄǺǛǼǆƾÑ¡ǥ×ĬǧƦđǾ»ǎǠǈǌƾ×ĬǡǨİ 1 óǡŢǑǻǚ)ă«Ǣǘǧ¡ǧųÝǬǧ©ŶȧdĲ,[ǧƤƕǾáŦǒǠǋǚǊȬǘǻsǧ)ƣǧĔƃ«ǥlǟǌæ×ōŕǥǞǅ
ǠǨáŦǡǋǠǅǤǅ4ƾǘǧǚǳȬǚǢǇǩƭǵŊ/Ȭ)ǧ«àȬ6ƊƩǤǣǊdĲ,[ǥƱǒǠǅǺǉǣǆǉǨ7ǉǝǠǅǤǅƾǘǧ®^ǡȬǥƐǭǚōŕǬǧ©ǥǴƦđǊ
ǄǺǢǅǇǺƾǏǧǷǆǤƦđǾƉǰǇǞǞ7ÛǵŸŵǾŘǝǠǅǌ~FǊïǳǸǻǺǛǼǆƾ

3
Brinton, Mary C., 2008, Lost in Transition: Youth, Work, and Instability in

Postindustrial Japan, Massachusetts: Cambridge University Press.
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