京都大学宇宙総合学研究ユニット
KYOTO UNIVERSITY UNIT OF SYNERGETIC STUDIES FOR SPACE
宇宙学セミナー （２０１７年２月１０日）

Prediction of Climate Variation and its
Application to Societies for SustainableDevelopment（気候変動予測と持続可能な開発に向けた社会応用）
Toshio Yamagata
Prof. Emeritus of the Univ. of Tokyo
Director, Application Lab, JAMSTEC, Japan

三千個以上の系外惑星が発見されている （NASA)Anthropocene
人類世、人新性

水惑星地球の変化・変動のなかで如何に人間安全保障を展開するか？

Under changes and variations of our planet Earth,
how can we develop sustainable human security?
持続可能な「未来の地球」は持続可能な「未来の海」を必要とする。

Sustainable future Earth needs sustainable futureOceans.
アジア・太平洋地域において私たちはどのような未来開拓をすべきか？

How should we develop our sustainable future in theunique Asia-Pacific region?

UN Sustainable Development Goals（持続可能な開発目標）
adopted by the UN sustainable development summit
as the post 2015 development agenda

Food
MarineEconomyWater

EnergyRecycling,
Pollution

Climate Marine life

HealthCapacity
Building

DisasterPrevention

Industry

UNCLOSKey sustainability challenges in Asia and the Pacific
アジア・太平洋における持続可能性の課題

 Climate variability and extremes under climate change, andrelated hazards and disasters from typhoons, floods andlandslides etc.  Increasing billion dollar climate and ocean
disasters Pressures of urbanization – megacities, health, pollution
 Values and lifestyles - social pressures, rapid growth ineconomics, population, production, consumption, and global
connectivity
 Biodiversity loss in hot spots and unvalued/undervalued
ecosystem services Food, water, energy, land security nexus
 Resilience, vulnerability, productivity of coastal, marine andterrestrial biomes

`MJO

IOD

IPOMonsoon
MJO

Tropical Pacific Ocean

Indian Ocean
Ningaloo
Niño/Niña

El Niño

El Niño Modoki
Ningaloo

Monsoonエルニーニョ現象の模式図

Schematic picture of El Niño

1900-1999

ラニーニャ

La Niña

エルニーニョ

El Niño

エルニーニョ現象の世界各地への影響（夏）Global impact of El Niño
（Blue：cold area；Orange：warm area）(Shaded：dry area；Cloud：wet area）

El Niño, La Niña, Modoki
Schematic pictures

Ashok and Yamagata

Nature 2009

ダイポールモード現象の模式図

Schematic picture of Indian Ocean Dipole(discovered and coined by Saji et al. 1999, Nature)
1900-1999

負のダイポールモード

Negative IOD
Now even IOD Modoki(Endo and Tozuka, 2016
Clim. Dynam.)正のダイポールモード

Positive IOD

ダイポールモード現象の世界各地への影響（夏）Global impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (boreal summer)（Blue：cold area；Orange：warm area）(Shaded：dry area；Cloud：wet area）

Based on Saji and Yamagata, 2003, Climate Res.

Number of patients of hyperthermia (heatstroke)
熱中症患者数（mostly from NIES report）

Total Number of Deaths from 1968 to 2007: 6770
1982: 26  El Niño, 1994: 589  IOD, 2004: 449El Niño Modoki, 2007: 904 La Niña+IOD
2010: Number of serious patients 56184, Deaths 1745  La Niña+IO capacitor effectNumber of Deaths （死者数）Temp. & Age Dependence

2007 La Niña( Data from Tokyo)

2004 El Niño Modoki
1994 pIOD
Critical age of 65

Max Temp.

Droughts and Bushfires due to IOD event in 2006
干ばつと叢林火災
Bush Fire in southeast Asia in 2006
Drought in Australia due to 2006 IOD
Health and Transportation problems
Water and Agricultural problems

Black Saturday Bushfires in Victoria, Australia ion Feb. 7, 2009
after 3 consecutive IODs in 2006,7, and 8
Burned down area: 4500Km2 ; Death toll: 173Immediate human security problem
More frequent IOD events
expected in warmer climate

Nature Geoscience
Cai et al. (2013)

2011 Flood Inundation in Thailand
Influences of La Niña and IPO
世界のサプライチェーンの寸断

Based on Report by AON BenfieldSuper typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines in 2013
台風ハイエン（ヨランダ） 2013年11月 死者、行方不明者 約8000名

Record-breaking disasterdue to strong winds and storm surge
強風と高潮による災害

Two major climate factors: La Niña
and a positive phase of Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation
ラニーニャと太平洋振動

Clues to Supertyphoon’s Ferocity
Found in the Western PacificDennis Normile, Science 342, 29 Nov. 2013

Acceleration of the global warming in coming decades ?
1998年から続いていた地球温暖化の停滞は終焉かInterdercadal Pacific Oscillation vs. Global warming
More extreme events expected by acceleration of Global Warming(Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013)Black：Observed global temperaturePurple：Only increasing greenhouse gases considered
Red：Observed tropical Pacific SST inserted

農作物被害（気象庁資料による）Agricultural loss in Japan（1971～2004）
Almost no harvest of rice in 1993 in Tohoku of Japan
Unit: almost equivalent toUS million dollars
Almost no summer in 1993

不稔籾Sterile riceEl Niño and negative IOD(エルニーニョ現象と負のダイポールモード現象Winter Wheat Production in Australia

Australia Wheat Production
オーストラリアの小麦収量（based on ABS and US Dept. of Agriculture）
All major drops are related to Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niñoevents

Wheat yield anomaly
at different phases of IOD and ENSO
オーストラリアの小麦収量変動と気候変動現象の関係(Chaoxia Yuan and T. Yamagata 2015, Scientific Reports)

IOD is much more important than ENSO
in wheat yield in Australia(C. Yuan and T. Yamagata, 2015)

2007 IOD / La Niña
The Weekly Timesof Australia
24 Oct. 2007

Many newspapers in Japan
24-27 Oct. 2007

Palm Oil Production in Malaysia

Impact on Malaysian economyPlantation of palm trees (Lian Pin Koh et al.)Monthly FFB yield (1987-2014)

Indonesia and Malaysia account for
81% of the total global production ofpalm oil,
Malaysia itself accounts for 39% ofworld palm oil production and 44%
of world exports,
In 2011, accounting for USD
16.8 billion of Malaysia’s Gross
National Income,Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB): 88 million
Mg from 4 million ha. Average of
18.7 Mg ha−1 (source: MPOB).
Malaysia
Peninsular
Sabah / Sarawak

Average annual yields per hectare (1987-2014)

5 years with low FFB yield
relative to 0.7σ = 2.98%

7 years with high FFB yield
Low FFB 0.7σ

High FFB 0.7σ

Lagged correlation between yearly FFB yield(as in December) and different oceanic indices→ ENSO is the main mode explaining of yearly FFB yield









Water stress and temperatures constrain the yearly
FFB yields,
Solar radiation is not so limiting factor,

At annual time scale, ENSO during the previous
winter season is the main oceanic driver,
IOD also appears as a potential secondary oceanicdriver,Ningaloo region might also play a role by modulating
the regional humidity flux.
→ Statistical forecast→ Dynamical forecast

Forecast of yearly FFB yield in Malaysia
Training period:
1987-2014→ Linear model able to capture largepart of the interannual variability

Seasonal climate prediction
SINTEX-F1 coupled GCM(developed at APL, JAMSTEC under the EU-Japan collaboration；operational since 2005)

AGCM: ECHAM4.6 T106L19
Cumulus convection scheme: Tiedtk 1989
The Morcrette et al. (1986) radiation code.

OGCM: OPA8.2 2º×(0.5º~2º) L31
With GM scheme
The mixed-layer scheme:1.5 closure model (Blank and Delecluse1983)

Coupler:
OASIS2.4

Every 2 hour
No flux correction
No sea ice model
Initialization: SST nudging system 3D VAR
27 ensemble members:
Climate drift: each lead time in a posteriori manner using hindcast outputs
Real-time seasonal forecast(http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/seasonal/outlook

Early warning of abnormal seasons is now almost available!
気候変動要素（気温、水温、降雨）とその影響の早期予測が実験的に可能に

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Surface Air Temperature Anomaly

Precipitation Anomaly

地上、海上気温異常

降水量異常Lead time
3 months

6 months

9 months

Rich Applicationof Ocean and Climate Variability Prediction to Society
気候変動予測システムの豊かな可能性

Our societal, economic and industrial activities are highly vulnerable to abnormal seasonsand extreme events induced by climate variations rooted in the oceans under the changing
climate.
気候変化の下で進化を始めた海洋起源の気候変動現象。その結果として起きる季節の異常と極端現象が社会、経済、産業活動に大きな影響を与え始めた。

To mitigate impacts from such extreme events and to achieve sustainable wellness
and well-being, to accelerate building an innovative climate prediction system by useof ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models harnessing the real-timesatellite and in situ global observations and the simulation technology is urgent.
その影響を緩和し持続可能な良き生を達成するにはリアルタイム地球観測とシミュレーション技術を統合する大気海
洋結合大循環モデルを用いた革新的な気候変動予測システムの構築を急ぐ必要がある。

This will lead to a good practice in demonstrating an active link between theprovision of services and the collection and processing of data, thus contributing todecision-making.
このシステムはサービスとデータ収集・処理の間の活発な交流の良き例を与え、政策決定に貢献するであろう。

Asia-Pacific Regional Contribution to Future EarthSIMSEA
Sustainability Initiativein the Marginal Seas of South and East Asia
(http://simseaasiapacific.org/)
南及び東アジアの縁辺海における持続可能性イニシャチブ
The idea was born at the 16th Meeting of ICSU RCAP (Regional Committee for Asia and the Pacific)
in Seoul, Nov. 2013

Predicted Climate in 2017

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/seasonal/outlook.html

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