『地域政策研究』（高崎経済大学地域政策学会）

第３巻

2000年11月

第２号

71頁〜82頁†

Hajime MOTEGI††

情報化と成長：東アジアの地域分析1
韓国の場合
茂

木

創

Abstract

Now we often hear the importance of the information technology sector. In this paper, I
have considered about the roles of development in information sector for economic growth in
the point of the macroeconomic views, and I shall examine to analyze the empirical facts of
Korea (Rep. of.). It would be said that Asian less developed countries (LDCs) has been
attained the rapid economic growth, because of the rise of yen after Praza agreement in themid 80’s and the increment of foreign direct investment (FDI) for Asian countries, the exports
in these countries has been increased comparison to before 80’s. The fact is what we call,
Asian Miracles . In Asian LDCs, Korea has attained the economic recoveries and growth,
first of all. Before I shall consider of all Asian LDCs, first I shall begin to analyze the Korean
Miracles. Most of all, I shall discuss the problems how the expansion of the sector will be
converged to the balanced growth pass, using the context of exogenous or endogenous growththeory. And I shall refer to the future of the relations of information sector and economic
growth.

†I would like to thank Tatsufumi Yamagata (Associate Professor of the Institute of Developing Economies IDE
advanced School) for useful comments and contributions on the first draft of this paper. And I am grateful to Masayuki
Kobayashi (Researcher of the Institute of Developing Economies) for helpful discussion about the collection ofavailable data. But needless to say, all mistakes in this paper are belonged to my own responsibility.
††

E-mail:dk995225@mita.cc.keio.ac.jp− 71−

Hajime MOTEGI

1 Introduction
This paper is considered about the roles of development in information sector for economic growth in the
point of the macroeconomic views, and positively analyzed the empirical facts of Korea (Rep. of.). When we
reffer to information used the several methods of economic theory, it is frequently said that weneed to
distinguish the case of industrialization of information and informatization of industry. In this paper I
consider it on the latter point of view. As well known,in the supply side, the information plays the role that,with its vailability beingeasy, brings new cost improvingprocess of production, and thus this new process, theimprovement of Research and Development (R & D) may be gradually used in the production of goods, as
result, the supply carve of this industry may be able to sift to downward in the assumption of ceteris paribus１.
Otherwise, in the demand side, consumers may be able to obtain more lower cost goods than before, if there
is no qualitative variety since the agents gain the information related to the goods.
If we intend to think of economic growth with technical improvement in information sector, it may be
important to define as the idea of informatization itself. In this paper, I would take it in the narrow sense of
the definition, the informatization means the increment of the growth rate of added value in informationindustry. Consideringon this point of view is on the supply side in the economies２. This definition
concerningto the supply side is useful for achievingmy purpose that I would want to consider the relation
between the information and the productivity of growing economies. Therefore, this paper also adopted thenarrow sence of definition.
It would be said that Asian less developed countries (LDCs) has been attained the rapid economic growth,because of the rise of yen after Praza agreement in the mid 80’s and the increment of foreign direct
investment (FDI) for Asian countries, the exports in these countries has been increased comparison to before
80’s.Of course, as World Bank [32] pointed out, it is observed the facts that each government in thesecountries positively intervened to market, but this intervention policy was export oriented and was carried out
to make up for the market failure and to arrange their inflastructure. Thus, LDCs have gradually came up
with the developed countries３. Of course, there are pessimistic views represented Krugman [12], what iscalled, the myth of Asia’s miracle. Anyw y, it could be certain that most of all economists and the others areinterested in the sustainability of growth in this area.

１
In this paper,as tractable assumption,I assume to regard industry as firms.Under this assumption, the agent i theindustry is equal to the representativ firm.
２

Against the narrow sense, Kuriyama and Oniki [11],using Input Output (I-O) analysis, pointed out the user effects
which is economic gains derived from the information goods and service being used in the other sector of the economy,
that is, they adopted the wide sence of the definition including the factors of demand side.
３
There are so much refference to development in East Asia and LDCs.Most of all, the optimistic views as tosustainability of economic growth in Asia depend on the increment of not only inter-industry trade, but also intraindustry trade, and also on improvment of total factor of productibity (TFP).

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Informatization and Growth: The regional analysis in East Asia I The case of Kore

At the same time, it began to study the endogenous growth theory４. Though, these theories themselvs havefandamentally followed ̀a la Solow [27] which treated technology as exogenous, the different features ofthem are to treat the innovation as endogenous, i.e., regarding techniques and skils of production as theaccumulation of know how, R & D and human capital and so on, which brings education in school andtraining in firms for long time. According to the insistence of these theory, development in human capital andR & D my be able to affirmative for positive growth policy. But, the roles of information so as to reduce theproduction cost and push on with the productivity have scarcely been treated in the context ofmacroeconomics５. I hope to establish the position of information in the growing economy.
On the other hand, Jonscher [８] and Voge [31] advocated that in the economy where the share of
information sector would be reached at 50%, if it were not for improvement of productivity in theinformation sector, the growth of whole economy might be limited (Jonscher = Voge hypothesis). Though,this hypothesis w s mainly introduced by Jonscher and Voge from the analysis of developed countries, but I
attempt to inspect wheter it would be true of this hypothesis in the case of Asian LDCs, above all, in thispaper, I shall consider the case of Korea.
In this paper, to begin with, I h ve to start to grasp at the informatization. To realize this informatization as
visible forms, I shall deal with the roles of knowledge stock which is accumulated with informatization in
Asia countries. Hence, I heve necessity to estimate the knowledge stock. In the next section, I shall estimate
the knowledge stock to grasp at the informatization in this area. And in the Section３, I shall estimate theproduction function and convergence speed of growth, and elucidate the sustainability of growth in the caseof exogenous or endgenous technology. In the Section４, I shall inspect the Jonscher = Voge hypothesis. And
finally in the Section５, I shall conclude the remarks and discuss about the future of this area and some
limitations of the method so as to use the present model.

2 Informatization in Korea
I shall start with the outlooks of informatization in Korean economy. Above all, to begin with, it may be
useful to recognize the expantion of computer industry’s supply and demand in Korea. Because, thedeveloppment of information technology has just come with the mature of computer industry. In 1967, IBM
computers were first introduced in Korea. Since then, Korea has made steady progress towards aninformation society. In paticular, at the end of the 1980’s, the demand-base for computers expanded

４

See Lucas [15]and P. Romer [25], [26] and so on. Aghion and Howitt [１], Barro and Sala-i-Martin [３] and D.

Romer [24] are useful for refference of this field. The pioneering works are Solow [27], [28], Ramsey [23], Cass [５],Koopmans [10] and Uzawa [29], [30] and so on.
５
There is already in the context of microeconomics, as the information economics or the ecoinomics of uncertainty− 73−

Hajime MOTEGI

remarkably as result of the continuous progress in constructing national computer network such as theadministrative network, bankingcomputer network and educational computernetwok. The trade liberalization
policy and the small to madium-size company computerization policy have also enhanced the demand.
In 1997, the computer market saw incresingdemand for personal computers in advanced countries, themodernization of systems such as multi-media, and the expanded popularization of the Internet. Thus, exportsof computer compornents incresed 38.9% to 221 million dollars over the previous year, but domestic sales
decreased 0.4%. This w s because consumers chose to upgrade existingcomputers rather than purchase newones.
As for peripheral devices, the capacity of HDD (Hard Disk Drive) was elevated from 2GB to 3GB, which
simulated an increse in both exports and domestic sales. CRT terminals prices were lowered by virture of
supply surplus, and the domestic production of 14 and 15 CRT terminals was reduced. For these reasons,exports decreased 14.0% from the previous year ; printers and FDDs (Floppy Disk Drives) also decreased
both in exports and domestic sales (see Table１).
Otherwise,since mid 1980s, Korea has heavily invested in the field of momory devices, and the korean
semiconductor industry as result achived outstanding growth. in 1995, it became the flagship industry of
Korea, and for the first time, single product had supassed 20 billion dollars. Korea is now the third country in
the field of memory after America and Japan.
Total seniconductor production amounted only to 1.5 billion dollars in 1990. But in just five years, thatlevel was extended to 16.1 billion dollars every year markingan increase rate of more than 60%. However,Table 1 Computer Industry Supply and Demand(Unit: Production・Domestic Sales-100 million won, Exports・Imports-million dollars, %)Cmputers

Peripheraldevices

Total

Increase rate

1996

1997

Production

11,616

12,3097.9

6.0

Imports

1,012

856

13.3

-15.4

Domestic sales

10,678

10,63827.4-0.4

Exports

159

221

-28.9

38.9

Production

51,631

62,96824.0

22.0

Imports

2,517

2,240

18.9

-11.0

Domestic sales

9,733

11,58421.6

19.0

Exports

4,963

5,658

18.5

14.0

Production

63,44975,48815.2

19.0

Imports

3,948

3,515

17.5

-11.0

Domestic sales

20,484

22,292

10.6

8.8

Exports

5,138

5,895

15.9

14.7

Source: Electronic Industries Association of Korea, Korea Foreign Trade Association

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1996

1997

Informatization and Growth: The regional analysis in East Asia I The case of Kore

Table 2 Supply and Demand of Semiconductors(Unit: million dollars, %)Production

１)

1995

1996

1997

Increase rate
1996

1997

16,15011,914

9,713

-26.2

-18.5

Imports

3,081

3,560

4,200

15.1

18.0

Domestic demands

4,399

4,985

5,460

15.7

9.5

Exports１)

14.602

10,679

8,626

-26.9

-19.2

Overseas
dependency ratio

70.0

71.4

76.9

-

-

Notes: １) Based on five companies with integrated process
Source: Korea Semiconductor Industry Association

since the end of 1996, because of the surplus of memory products around the world and the recession of thePC market and the followingfall of DRAM market price, the total production of the semiconductor industry
has stabilized, 11.9 billion dollars in 1996 and 9.7 billion dollars in 1997. In 1997, imports of semiconductors
increased 18.0% to 4.2 billion dollars, and the overseas dependency ratio increased to 77.0% from 71.4% in1996 (see Table２). The exots of semiconductors in 1997 declined in value to 8626 million dollars, decreaseof 19.2%, due to the delayed recovery of memory products. Unlike slowdown in exports, domestic demand
totaled 5460 million dollars. This increase of 9.5% over the previous year resulted from the advencement inhigh technology used in electronic goods, the better loadeingratio of semiconductors, and the increaseindemand for informative communication products (cited from National Statistical Office, Republic of Korea[20] pp.39-42).
Since the previous economic investigations used economic theory (e.g. Solow [27], [28]), the innovation oftchnology has been treated as Solow residual (or TFP) which is estimated as technological progress in growthaccounting. And of course, there are already so many studies whether economic growth would be on thesteady state pass and this economy would be converged or not as time goes on. Most of all, as forconvergence, there are two arguments, the divergence hypothes represented by Myrdal [18] and theconvergence hypothesis insisted by Kuznets [13], [14], Barro and Sala-i-Martin [３], and most of recent
investigations in this field. As the latter insistence has been analyzed in details usingstatisitical methods, theconvergence hypothesis becomes now the majority of these arguments. Hence I would follow in the latterconvergence hypothesis, analyze to use the neoclassical growth model taken the initiative by Solow [27].
And in the information sector, now I would attempt to consider the two types of technology that areexogenous and endgenous for Korean information industry.

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Hajime MOTEGI

3 Speed of cnovergence
In this section, at first, I shall ague the speed of convergence to stationaly solution useing simple vergion of
the neoclassical growth model in the case of exogenous technology. And second, I shall estimate using themethod of Ortigueira and Santos [22] in the case of endogenous technology. To understand the constructionof the economy or industry in the country, in the context of macroeconomics, it has often been used toestimate the parameter of its production function.Most of all, it is important the function gives me theinformation of the several economc valuables that maight be converge to the fixed values in the steady state.
Hence, now I shall caluculate the rate of convergence speed by usingthe method of Appendix A.1 and A.2.
First I h ve to estimate the knowledgstock. And from the estimation values, next I consider my benchmark
economy with parameter values, σ= 0.05, ρ= 0.05, n = 0.01, A = 1, δ= 1.5, β= 0.4. As result of thecaliculation. Consequently, I obtaion the followingsteady-state values, c* = 1.91, k* =10.0 and the rate of˜
convergence speed is λexo. =0 .07. Figure 1 displays the laws of motion of the linear and non-linear systems
for the baseline economy. It can be observed that the linearized system mimics well the nonlinear dynamics
over significative range of the capital domain. Similar patterns were found for alternative calibrations of the
˜model. Hence, it may be said that the local speed of convergence, λexo. , is good estimate of the global
converging behavior.

Source : Ortigueira and Santos [22]Figure１− 76−

Informatization and Growth: The regional analysis in East Asia I The case of Kore

Source : Ortigueira and Santos [22]Figure２

Next, I consider the case of endogenous growth model.As same as the case of exogenous model, I
shallassume that the benchmark economy has the following parameters, that is, γ= 0.45, δ=1.5, ρ=0.05,
n =0.01, A =3, α= 0.07, β= 0.4, σ=0.05, θ= 0. Let z = c/k and x = h/k, these parameters give rise to the˜followingsteady-state values: z* = 0.26, x* = 0.09, r* = 0.43, u* = 0.28, and convergence speed, λend., is
˜
λend. = 0.20. The dynamics of the convergence is display in Figure 2. Judgeing from the result of theestimation, it may say the paformance of endogenous model is better than the one of the exogenous model.

4 Robustness of Jonscher = Voge hypothesis
In 1983, Jonscher [８] showed the two sectors model which is separated from goods and service sector to
information sector. His idea is that, being the economy matured, the task of the information technology
would be increasing, so as to the support and manegement of the economic systems.And he applyed his idea
to the American economy. From his model, the relation of the number of workers in the information sector
and one of workers in the other sectors is inverse proportion to the labor productivities in each sectors. In
addition to this results, he insisted that if the productivity in the information sector is exceed the one of theother sectors, the number of labors engaged in information setor would be able to decreasingin near future. At
the same time, Voge [31] insisted the hypothesis that the maximized GDP could be attained till the scale ofinformation sector would be reached at the half of GDP, and he called the point of this situation the wall of− 77−

Hajime MOTEGI

50%.
Cosidering the Korean economy, as it is now on the way to development about information technology, it
is unwise of us to make decision so hastily. And it is difficult to decide the definition of the labors engaged in
information sector. In the first place, where is the line that separates information sector from other sectors ?
The answer is difficult. But, accordingto National Statistical Office, Republic of Korea [20], the ratio of
information sector’s labor is 6.3% (1960), 10.1% (1970), 14.6% (1980), 20.3% (1990), it has tendency toincrease.
For the moment in my study, I have difficulty to judge exactly whether the hypothesis has robustness or
not in Korean economy. However, I think it may be very difficult to observe the fact that Korean economy
climbs the wall of 50% in the near future. Because, now the Korea has the comparative advantage ofmanufacturing goods and play very significant roles in world market, furthermore, the other LDCs has notechnology that produce same lebel as Korea.

5 Concluding remarks
In this paper I tried to describe the Informatization of Korean Economy.The macroeconoic analysis of
informatization has just begun yet since recent years. So it may not be said the tools of analysis has been
established. Nevertheless, followingresult may be able to say, the computer industry, bove all, semiconductor
industry is rapidly expanded its share in Korean eeconomy (section 2), and the growth of information sector
is endogenous (section3), but I have rooms for investigate about robustness of Jonscher = Voge hypothesis,
considering the movement of the Korean information sector (section 4).
Finally, bout the other LDCs, there are so many problems that it is not easy to analyze to this subject. The
statistical arrangement requires immidiate attention, too. However, I hope that this paper maight be pioneerig
analysis of the informatizaion in Asian countries, usingmacroeconomic theory.

A. Mathematical Appendix
A.1 Estimation of knowledge stock (R(t))
As for estimation of R(t), I fandamentally obey the same analytical method in Nadiri [19] and Goto et al.
[６]. The superiority of this approach exist in the classification of flow side and stock side of information.
The method is introduced the permanent stock approach beingin the plant and equipment investment and thecapital stock, between the knowledge stock and the flow of expenditures of R & D, estimate the knowledge
stock. The theoretical equation for thisestimation are given in− 78−

Informatization and Growth: The regional analysis in East Asia I The case of Kore

R(t) = RF(t) + R(t – 1).

(1)

In this paper, the obsolescence rate of patent of the production ６. And I express η as the terms(development lag) that R & D effects exchange the knowledge stock, RF(t) denote as RF(t) = E(t –η)７.
Thus, (1) is given as

R(t) = E (t –η) + R (t – 1).

(2)

In this equation, E(t –η) denotes the value of R & D expenditures in the sector of information industries int –η period (real base expression). This one is translated intoR(t – 1) = E(t –η) , where h = R(t)hR (t – 1) – 1 .

(3)

But h in (3) is actually obscure, and is approximated as

RF(t)
h〜
〜 RF(t – 1)

(4)

８

and then I estimate R(t) .
A.2 Estimation of convergence speed
A.2.1 Estimation of production function in information industry
The estimation of macroeconomic production function is owed to Mansfield [17].
I apply to consider the method for Ortigueira and Santos [22] model which contains the information as
endogenous, calculate the convergence speed for steady state growth in Asian countries, and compare witheach countries. I denote Y is each countries’ GDP, K is capital stock and L is labor. The small letter means
valuable per capita. Now I characterize the production function for convinience.

yi (t) = Ai (t)kβ,∀

Ai > 0,β∈[0 ,1].

(5)

Where A is parameter, and equation (5) is used in the case of exogenous growth model. Otherwise, in theoccation of the endogenous innovation, I consider the forms of production function asyi (t) = Ai (t)kβ(ui (t)ri (t))１–β,∀

Ai > 0 , β∈[0 ,1].

(6)

Where ri (t) ≡Ri (t) per capita and ui (t) denotes the relative amount of effort devoted to the production of
good.
A.2.2 Exogenous growth model
The exogenous growth model presented by neoclassical optimal growth model is the model that
Strictly speaking, it would not so much to say that there are the rooms for consideration of the obsolescence rate ofone (See Goto et al. [６] )７
In the context of accounting, the assumption between the flow and stock are ad hoc and may be able to deny.
therefore, more exactly, I need to measure the estimation from the data from each country own, but, as tractable
assumption in this paper,it is treated as given. Quoting the result of Goto et al. [６], the mean lag (η) of realization in ･６

rms of technologies after R & D expenditures in information industries each countries is assumed to 3 years.

R(t) is used in A.3.1.

８

− 79−

Hajime MOTEGI

representative gents would maximize the utility function U (c(t)) (c is consumption (C) per capita, i.e., c=C/L) under constraint. The utility function is constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function, and σ(>0)
means an elastisity of substitution, and ρ(>0) is discount rate. On the other hand, the production goods by
way of (5) is destributed consumption and investment. And the depreciation rate is δ(>0), and popuration
grows at an exoginous rate n (>0), with ρ>– n. Hence the constraint that the representative agent faced on is.
β
k i (t) = Ai (t) k – (δ +n ) ki (t) – ci (t), the utility maximize problem is∞ –(ρ–n)t ci(t) 1–σ– 1
Max.
e
dt
1–σ
0
ki (t) = Ai (t) kβ– (δ+ n ) ki (t) – ci (t),s.t.

∫ci (t) >– 0, ci (t) >– 0, ki (0) = k– (const.).

(7)

From the method of Barro and Sala-i-Martin [３],ci (t).
c i (t) = – σ ［ρ+δ–βAi (t) k (t)β–1］.
k i (t) = Ai (t) kβ– (δ+ n ) ki (t) – ci (t).
.
.
The steady state solutions of ci (t) and ki (t) are attained c i (t) = 0 and k i (t) = 0.
˜linearizing (8) and (9) at the steady state, I would get the λ, given by1
˜
λexo. =2(8)(9)

4 ( 1 –β)(ρ+δ) ρ+δ– (ρ– n ) +( β – (δ+ n ))］{ρ– n［
}
σ

1/2

2

(10)

˜
Let λ≡ –λ, I shall define it as the convergence of speed.
A.2.3 Endogenous growth model
Next I reffer to the speed of convergence in the case of endogenous growth. In the context of Ortigueira andSantos [22], the production function is given by (6). Of course, ri (t) is the levle of R & D, education or humancapital. In the R & D sector, the low of mortion of ri (t) is given by linear technology, that is,.
ri (t) =α( 1 – ui (t)–ri (t)) ri (t) –θri (t), where ( 1 – ui (t) –ri (t)) is the fraction of time devoted to R & D, andri (t) is the fraction of time spent in leasure activities, denotes the depreciation of ri (t) and holds nonnegative, and α is non-negative parameter. The instantaneous utility function is represented by CES
function, U (c,rh ) =[(ci (t)γ(ri (t) ri (t))1 –γ)1 –σ ]/( 1 –σ). Therefore, social planning problem is written as
Max.

∞

∫
0

s.t.

e–(ρ–n)t(ci (t)γ(ri (t) ri (t))1 –γ)1 –σ– 1
dt
1–σ

.
k i (t) = Ai (t) kβ(ui (t) ri (t))1 –β– (δ+ n ) ki (t) – ci (t),.
r i (t) =α( 1 –ui (t) –ri (t)) ri (t) –θri (t),0 <– ui (t) <– 1, 0 <–ri (t) <– 1, 0 <– ui (t) +ri (t) <– 1

ci (t) >– 0, ki (t) >– 0, ri (t) >– 0, ki (0), ri (0) = const., ρ– n > (α–θ) ( 1 –σ).

(11)

I get the steady state valuables to solve the problem９, and linearly approximate around the solution, as in
the case of A.2.2,the convergence speed in endogenous growth model is witten as− 80−

Informatization and Growth: The regional analysis in East Asia I The case of Kore

˜
λend. =( 1–βσ ) (δ+ n +α–θ).

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AmericanHajime MOTEGI[24] Romer, D. [1996] Advanced Macroeconomics, MacGraw-Hill International Editions.
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