Disc
cussioon Papper Seeries

Univeersityy of Tokyyo

Insstitutte of Social Scciencce
Pannel Suurveyy
東京大学社会科
科学研究
究所 パネル調査
査プロジ
ジェクト
ディス
スカッシ ョンペー
ーパーシリーズ

Soccial Ineq
qualityy amongg Japannese Yoouth:
Educaation, W
Work, anda Maarriage
inn Conteemporaary Japaan

Hirosshi ISH
HIDA(Institutee of Social Sciences, UniversityUofo Tokyo)Feebruary 20
011
No.41

東京大学社
社会科学研究所
INSTITUTTE OF SOCIAAL SCIENCEE UNIVERSIITY OF TOKY
YO

Institute of Social Sciences
University of Tokyo
Panel Survey Project Discussion Paper Series No. 41
February 2011

Social Inequality among Japanese Youth:
Education, Work, and Marriage in Contemporary Japan
Hiroshi Ishida(Institute of Social Sciences, University of Tokyo)

This paper is based on the 12th John W. Hall Lecture in Japanese Studies, deliveredat Henry R. Luce Auditorium, Yale University on 28 October 2010. I am gratefulto Satoshi Miwa for his suggestion on the analysis of the determinants of dating
and to Masao Oshima for his advice on the analysis of transition from school towork among university students.

Social Inequality among Japanese Youth:
Education, Work, and Marriage in Contemporary Japan
Hiroshi Ishida(University of Tokyo)
Abstract
This lecture examines the process of two critical transitions for Japanese young people:
the transition to work and the transition to marriage. At these transitions, social
inequality, or the unequal distribution of life chances, clearly occupies the central place.
In the transition from school to work, I focus on the role of schools in shaping theunequal distribution of the outcomes of the first job. Previous studies have pointed out
the distinctive features of the school-to-work transition among high school graduates inJapan; Japanese schools play an active role in matching students to jobs. The
empirical evidence presented in the lecture suggests that there is no apparent decline in
the use of the school-mediated system or the effects of using such a system. The
school-mediated transition continues to provide assistance to the socially disadvantaged.
The students coming from less advantaged social origins and those who were notsuccessful in the early stages of the job search are the people who benefit most from theschool-mediated system. Dismantling the system will further disadvantage those whoare already disadvantaged in society.
With regard to the transition to marriage, I focus on the process of finding amarriage partner, rather than the actual marriage. However, a very similar mechanism
can be found about the likelihood of getting married. There are substantial differences
between those who married and those who stayed single according to socio-economic
position and home environment. Social inequality accumulated at earlier life stages,
such as the unequal chances of entry into employment and one’s parental homeenvironment, have profound influences on subsequent life events, such as dating andmarriage.

11. INTRODUCTION
The topic of today’s lecture is social inequality among Japanese youth. For a large partof my professional career, I have worked on issues related to social inequality and social
mobility, so it will come as no surprise that today’s lecture centers on this topic. But I
hope that the topic is seen as timely, because there has been a resurgence of interests insocial inequality in contemporary Japan. Today I hope to talk about two aspects ofsocial inequality among the youth, using recently collected panel surveys. My
contribution will take the form of analyzing this unique panel data, and describing theprocess through which social inequality is generated and reproduced in contemporary
Japan.
I would like to focus on two critical transitions that young people face, andexamine the detailed process of these transitions, and how they are related to social
inequality. The first is the transition from school to work: that is, the process of gettinga job after school. I will examine the activities leading to a job (就職活動) and theirimpact on the outcomes of the job search. The second is the transition to marriage: theprocess of finding a partner and getting married. Here the activities leading to findinga marriage partner（結婚活動）will be examined. For those of you who know Japanese,
these two sets of activities are called 就活 and 婚活 respectively, using abbreviatedforms, and they have been attracting considerable attention in the Japanese media
recently.
These are probably the two most crucial transitions that young people must
experience in their life course. Yet, for both transitions, recent observations by themass media and the academics alike emphasize changes in the process of transition.
As for the transition from school to work, some argue that the traditional assistanceprovided by schools has disappeared, and individual students are left alone to find theirown ways in the job search. As for the transition to marriage, there is a renewedinterest in the activities surrounding the search for future partners. With the practice ofarranged marriages long disappeared, and the ability to rely on relatives, or a workplacesuperior, to introduce prospective partners becoming less effective, young people arecompelled to find their own partners. In both transitions, the key terms among the
proponents of change are individual choice and responsibility. With the influence of
neo-liberal thinking, individual youth are expected to take the initiative in their job
search or partner search, without relying on the existing institutions and, at the sametime, they are expected to take full responsibility of the outcomes of the search.
To give you the upshot of my argument first, these claims about significant
changes are often groundless or require heavy qualifications. The idea of the2

breakdown of the school-mediated transition to work or the prevalence of active search
activities among youth does not receive much empirical support. Schools continue toprovide assistance to students, and the effect of an active partner search on the actual
likelihood of finding a partner is greatly overestimated. I will show that the processesof getting a job or finding a marriage partner are embedded in the existing institutions
and the sequence of events in the individual life course. The apparent changes that areoften emphasized in the media are not accurately representing the underlying
mechanism.
2. TRANSITION TO WORK
Let me begin with the transition from school to work. Japan has been praised for its
low level of youth unemployment and the smooth transition from school to work.
Japanese students have been generally successful in moving into the labor market in anorderly fashion, immediately following school graduation. The main reason for thissuccessful transition was ascribed to the active role played by schools in the matchingprocess of students and jobs.
Cross-national comparisons highlight the distinctive characteristics of theJapanese transition from school to work. Table 1 shows cross-national differences in
the methods used for finding jobs after school completion from a survey conducted by
the Japan Employment and Occupation Institute. In Japan, the overwhelming majorityof students used the school placement office. In the US and Britain, advertisements
and personal contacts were the most popular methods. The cross-national difference isespecially striking among high school.
Previous studies pointed out that Japanese schools played an important
mediating role in the process of transition from school to work. I will first focus on
the transition from school to work among high school students, and then I will talkabout the transition among college students.
School-to-Work Transition among High School Students
The following five features characterize the School-to-Work transition among
Japanese high school students:(1)

The schedule is highly regulated by the rules set forth by the government.
The schedule regarding the transition is highly regulated by the rules set forth
by the national government. The schedule begins in the middle of the senior year andcontinues until the graduation date in March. For your reference, Japanese academic

3

year begins in April and ends in March. The job search takes place while students arestill in school. Furthermore, important dates are determined in advance. For example,
every year June 20th is designated as the starting date for employers to submit hiringforms to the Public Employment Office, the agency under the Ministry of Health, Labor,and Welfare. Employers must fill out the hiring forms if they are interested in hiringhigh school seniors who are expected to graduate the following spring. These forms
are forwarded from the Public Employment Office to high schools beginning July 1st.
Interviews and the formal screening process of job candidates cannot begin until
September 16. Employers are prohibited to engage in any recruiting activities untilthat date.
The highly regulated system is based on the philosophy that high school
students are still minors and need guidance by teachers who have a good working
knowledge of the job market and, at the same time, know the character of the students.
(2) The opportunities of employment differ depending on the high school
The opportunities of employment for high school students are determined bywhich high school the students happen to attend, because the job openings are notequally distributed among different schools.
Employers are allowed to designate the schools to which the job
announcements are sent from the Public Employment Office. In order words, it is nota system where individual students apply to a company, but rather a system in which
students must apply through schools. So if the school where a student attends does notreceive a job opening announcement, he/she does not have a chance to be hired by thisparticular company. The students must find the best possible employer from the list
available at the high school they attend.
(3) Students can only apply to one company at a time.
Students can only apply to one company at a time, at least in the first round of
applications. In order to assure fairness among students, and make sure that a
particular student does not receive multiple offers, schools regulate the application
process. Because students can only apply to companies through their school’s
recommendation, schools are able to regulate the process and use the“one-student-one-company” allocation rule. In order for this system to work, when astudent is offered a job by the recommended company, he/she is expected to accept theoffer. Once a student accepts an offer, he or she will not be recommended to anothercompany, because it is based on the trust between the employer and the school that the4recommendation is a serious one.
(4) Schools select which students can apply to which companies。
Schools select among students usually based on meritocratic criteria, in orderto determine which student is recommended to a particular company. Since it ispossible that many students are interested in the same company, schools must have aselection procedure to restrict the candidates. In selecting the nominees, schools
normally use grades and attendance records.
Since students are given one
recommendation at a time, they try to maximize their chances of being hired by thecompany in the first round. Otherwise, the students must compete for a job in thesecond round, and the job openings are likely to be less favorable than those in the firstround.
(5)

There is a long-term relationship between employers and schools.
There is a long-term relationship between particular employers and particularhigh schools, due to the repeated transaction of recommendation and hiring. Some
employers are willing to hire students from the same high school over and over again,
and ask the high schools to recommend the students to them. In return for job
openings, high schools try to make sure to recommend students every year. Becauseof the long-term relationship, employers value the recommendations highly and almost
always hire students recommended by the schools. In return, high schools do notrecommend students who do not meet employers’ specification, even though that may
mean recommending no student in a particular year.
This is a very intriguing system, which has its historical origins in the late
1940s. So this system has been in place for a long time. Recently, however, theschool-mediated system has been subject to criticism.
According to the critics, faced with the economic downturn beginning in thelate 1990s, the schools are not equipped to adjust to the changing economic
environment. There is not only an increase in the number of young people who
engage in part-time and non-regular jobs, but there is also an increase in the number ofyoung people who are neither working nor studying in educational institutions. The
critics argue that the role played by schools in the job placement of high school students
has completely disappeared since the late 1990s.
Others even argue that schools should not take the responsibility of allocating
students, because that violates individual freedom of occupational choice. The idea

5echoes the neo-liberal orientation of individual freedom and responsibility.
Today, I would like to concentrate on the question of whether this kind of
school-mediated system still works in contemporary Japan, and whether the system
makes a difference in the outcomes, that is, the kinds of jobs students obtain.
Before I move on to present empirical findings, I will first provide somebackground information. Figure 1 shows the trends of destinations of high school
graduates. Getting a job following high school graduation constituted the mostpopular destination until the 1980s. However, the rate has declined sharply, due to the
expansion of the higher education sector during the 1990s, and today about 20 percent
of high school graduates obtain full-time jobs and move directly into the labor market.
Figure 2 shows the trends of destinations of high school graduates. Gettinga job following high school graduation constituted the most popular destination until the
1980s. However, the rate has declined sharply, due to the expansion of the higher
education sector during the 1990s, and today about 20 percent of high school graduatesobtain full-time jobs and move directly into the labor market.
It is, therefore, true that the number and the proportion of high school students
who go through the school-mediated job search process have been decreasing, and thelabor market for high school graduates has been stagnating in recent times. However,this does not necessarily mean that the school-mediated process has completely broken
down, or that the advantages associated with the school-mediated process havedisappeared.
I would now like to present some findings from the recent survey of the young
people, the Japanese Life Course Panel Surveys. A very quick overview of the survey
is in order. The Japanese Life Course Panel Surveys are composed of two groups: theyouth sample which includes those who were aged 20 to 34 in 2007, and the
middle-aged sample which includes those who were aged 35 to 40. The surveys arenationally representative, using the residence registrar as the basis of sampling frame.
Questionnaires were mailed out to the respondents and were collected from individual
households by the employees of a survey company. Wave 1 was conducted in 2007,
and the respondents have been followed up every year since then.
Now the findings are presented. Figure 3 shows the proportion of high school
graduates in our sample who used schools to obtain their first job after high school.1
1

The survey asked the respondents: “how did you get to know and apply to your first
job? ”The following responses were coded as school mediation:“through the school
placement office” or “through school teachers”. The proportion represents those who
found their first job through schools. High school graduates who used school
6

Sixty percent of high school graduates in the middle-aged sample and 53 percent in the
youth sample used the school placement office to find their first employment. Whilethe younger cohort used it less, the majority of high school graduates of the youth
sample still relied on schools in their job search. The evidence is not consistent withthe claim that the school-mediated job search has completely disappeared in recent
times.
Next, let us examine the outcomes of the job search, and see whether there areany differences between school-mediated searches and non-mediated searches. The
first outcome examined is whether high school graduates were able to start working
immediately following graduation. Figure 4 shows 97 percent of those who foundtheir first jobs through school, started working on April 1st, immediately following
graduation, while the percentages for those who found their first jobs without theassistance of school are much less: 66 percent for the youth sample and 71 percent forthe middle-aged sample. Schools seem to help the smooth transition of students.
The second outcome is whether the respondent’s first job was his or her firstpreference (Figure 5). The majority (56 percent of the youth and 58 percent of the
middle-aged sample) of those who found their first jobs through school, reported that
their jobs were their first choice. The proportion is much smaller for those who did not
use the school to find their first jobs: 30 percent of the youth and 37 percent of the
middle-aged sample.
Two other types of outcome are considered. The next figure (Figure 6) shows
the firm size of the first job. The proportion of those who found first jobs in large
firms (those with more than 300 employees) and the public sector is clearly different
between graduates who used the school to find jobs and those who did not. Finally, theproportion of those who found full-time regular employment is shown according towhether the respondent used the school or not (Figure 7). Among the middle-aged
sample, the difference is not very large (8 percent). However, among the youth sample,
school mediation makes a large difference. If a high school graduate did not use theschool mediation process, his/her chances of finding a regular job were greatly reduced,
by more than 30 percent (to 60 percent).
All of these results lead us to conclude that school mediation offers
significantly better job opportunities in contemporary Japan. And the effects of school
mediation or obtained information through schools, but ended up in jobs which were notintroduced by their school, are not included. If the first job was not introduced by theschool, the respondent was not classified as someone who used school mediation, even
if the student used school services extensively. This explains the difference in the
proportion measuring the use of schools in various figures.
7

mediation are still apparent among the young cohort, and there is no clear sign of theeffects being reduced in recent period.
Finally, we consider the question of who actually uses the school-mediatedsearch. In particular, I would like to examine whether the use of the school-mediatedjob search is related to students’ social backgrounds. Figure 8 presents the proportionof those who used schools to find their first job, by the father’s social class. Students
coming from a manual working class background are more likely to use school
mediation than those from the professional-managerial class. The children of theprofessional-managerial class probably have their own resources and networks, and do
not have to rely so much on the schools to secure good entry positions. High school
students from more disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to use the school
mediated system and benefit from it.
Young people who move into the labor market after completing high school arethose who lack access to further education beyond secondary school. Because
enrollment in higher education is closely related to social background, high school
graduates are more likely to come from a disadvantaged background than college
graduates. So high schools, which mediate the job match process among students, areindeed providing assistance to the most disadvantaged youth in society, and possibly
alleviating the negative consequences associated with coming from a disadvantaged
background.
In summary, it is true that the number and the proportion of high school
students who move into the labor market immediately after high school graduation isshrinking, thereby reducing the number of those who potentially go through school
mediated transition. Nonetheless, schools continue to offer guidance in the job searchfor high school students, and to provide assistance to socially disadvantaged youth.
School-to-Work Transition among University Students
Now I will discuss the process of transition from school to work among college
graduates. Cross-national comparisons highlight the two features which characterize
the Japanese process (Table 2). First, Japanese college students begin the job search
process well before graduation. According to a survey conducted by the Japan
Institute for Labor Policy, and Training, 96 percent of Japanese college students began
looking for a job more than 3 months before graduation, whereas the average for college
students in Europe was only 23 percent.
With regard to the methods used to look for a job as shown in Table 3, 63
percent of Japanese college students used the school placement office, whereas the8average for European students was only 17 percent. Japanese college graduates use
the resources provided by the placement office extensively, but that does not necessarilymean that they obtain jobs through the assistance of the placement office. The major
functions of the placement offices at the college level are to provide information andguidance to students.
In recent years, the job search among college students begins in thesummer/fall of the junior year – very early. During the summer vacation and the fallsemester, college placement offices organize guidance meetings and job fairs for juniors
who are about to start the job search process. The process begins with the students
applying to different companies by filling out application forms on the internet. The
companies select students from among the applicants and give written tests andinterviews to a selected group. Placement office assists students by giving advice
about filling out the application forms, conducting mock interviews, and providing
information about alumni who work in companies where students are interested.
By May (the beginning of the senior year), roughly a third of students receive
offers from companies they applied to. Up to this point, the job search process
resembles the “free market” model of matching between students and employers.
However, there are still students who must continue the job search. At this later stage,
the college placement office plays a more active role in assisting those students who
were not able to find jobs during the first stage of the job search. The placement officereceives announcements of job openings from companies which were not able to fill the
positions in the first round. The office selects employers from the list andrecommends them to students who come to the office for assistance. The students willtake the recommendations and ask for interviews at these companies. The importantdifference from the high school placement office is that the college placement officedoes not usually select the students, but tries to assist everyone who comes to the office.
The college placement office recognizes that the students who seek help are those who
were not successful in the first round of the job search. So much for the description of
the job search process of college graduates.
Figure 9 presents background information about the trends of the destination ofcollege graduates. Getting a job has always been the dominant destination forJapanese college graduates, partly because graduate schools are not sufficiently
developed in Japan. Although there was a drop in the proportion of those who got jobs
after college in the late 1990s and early 2000s due to the economic downturn, the rates
have been on the increase from 2005.
I would now like to present findings from the Japanese Life Course Panel

9

Surveys. I distinguish three groups of college graduates: (1) the first group include
those who found their jobs in the early stage of the job search and did not use school
mediation (this group is composed of about 30 percent of college graduates of oursample) (2) the second group are those who found their job late, but through theintroduction of school (comprising about 20 percent), and (3) the third group include
those who found their job late without school mediation (which constitutes about a halfof college graduates of our sample).
Now the question is whether these three groups have different outcomes of thejob search. Figure 10 shows the proportion of college graduates who began working
immediately following graduation from college by the three groups. Well over 90
percent of the “Early” group and the “Late with school mediation” group began working
immediately after graduation, while the proportion for those who found jobs “Latewithout school assistance” is much lower, especially in the youth sample where the rateis only 70 percent. The next figure (Figure 11) presents the proportion of college
graduates who obtained full-time regular employment. Again, the “Early” groups and“Late with school mediation” groups both scored high—over 90 percent, in both theyouth and middle-aged samples. The “Late and no school mediation” groups had
significantly lower figures, especially in the youth sample.
Although the figures are not shown, the same pattern can be found for the
likelihood of finding first jobs in large firms or the public sector, and the proportion ofpeople who claim that their entry jobs were their first choice. All these results indicatethat the job outcomes of college graduates who found jobs early in the process and those
who found jobs late but with the introduction of schools are clearly better. And theeffects of using the schools seem to be larger in more recent period.
Finally, we examine whether the use of the school mediated job search isrelated to students’ social origin, that is, the father’s social class. The figure is notshown here, because there is no significant association between class background andthree groups of college graduates. Those who benefited from the assistance of theschool placement office do not come from any particular class background. Thissuggests that the use of school mediation is not restricted by social background, but isopen to all students who required assistance.
In summary, the school-mediated transition was used by college graduates who
were not successful in the first round of the job search. School placement offices
provide these students with relatively favorable job opportunities. The opportunities
seem to be equal to, if not better than, those enjoyed by college students who weresuccessful in the first round of the job search. In other words, school mediation plays10

an important role in helping students who were disadvantaged early in the job search
process. Even though they failed to secure jobs in the first round, they were able tocompensate for their early failures with the assistance of the school.
3. TRANSITION TO MARRIAGE
Let me move on to the second topic: the transition to marriage. I begin with presenting
some background information. One of major demographic changes taking place incontemporary Japan is the declining fertility rate. Fertility is relevant to the shiftingbalance between the working population and the retired generation and the shrinking
demographic basis for the support of the social security system in Japan. As shown in
Figure 12, there has been a continuous decline in the fertility rate in Japan since around1970. In the last 40 years, the rate has been running below the replacement rate of
2.08, the bold line in the figure.
There are two main reasons for the decline in fertility: the decline in thenumber of children born among married couples, and the decline in the marriage rate.
The trend which became most apparent in 1990s is that the proportion of couples withmore than three children has been declining. The average number of children permarried couple was 2.83 in 1962, but 2.09 in 2005. This had a direct effect on thefertility rate. The other reason relates to marriage. Because out-of-wedlock babies
are still extremely rare in Japan, marriage and childbirth are closely linked, and shying
away from marriage will result in a fewer number of babies born. The proportion ofpeople who are single by age-group and by year is shown in Figure 13. The dark bars
on the right, which represent the most recent period of 2005, show the increasing
proportion of single people in the 25-29 and 30-34 age cohorts both for men andwomen.
There is a sudden increase in the interest in marriage and dating among themass media, and even among government officials and politicians. Special agencies
are being set up in local governments to assist the mate-searching activities for young
people. They do not advocate the old match-making system, but provide young people
with meeting occasions and parties organized by the local government, in order to boost
marriage rates and eventually birth rates. Despite the increasing attention given in the
media, we know very little about the dating behavior and the process which leads tomarriage.
In this part of my lecture, I will examine the following three questions: (1) how
prevalent are the activities leading to finding a partner? (2) who are actively engaged in
the search for a partner? and (3) does actively searching for a partner affect the actual

11

probability of finding a partner?
The first figure (Figure 14) presents the proportion of non-married people who
engaged in activities to find a partner, according to the Japanese Life Course Panel
Surveys. Please note that respondents who were already married are excluded fromthe analysis. Thirty-eight percent of people engaged in the active search of a partner,
and there is no clear difference by gender. It is hard to conclude whether this figure ishigh or low without having any benchmark, but given the fact that the notion of “active
search of a partner” is so widespread and popular among the media, the actual figure is
probably lower than people would expect.
Figure 15 presents the proportion of people who engaged in activities to find apartner by gender and by age group. There is virtually no difference between men andwomen, except for the oldest group of 35 to 40. Among women who are 35 to 40, thelikelihood of actively searching for a partner is substantially reduced by more than 10
percent. Men do not show such a tendency. It is possible that women in their late 30s
have given up the idea of getting married, given that the average age of first marriage
for women is 29. Another possibility is that women of this generation are still not used
to engaging in an active partner search because men, not women, are expected to takethe initiative.
I just want to show you quickly the kinds of activities these young people
engaged in, when “actively searching” for partners. Here is a list of the activities
reported by the respondents (Figure 16). The most popular activity, as you can see
from this figure, is to ask friends for an introduction to a possible partner. Taking partin drinking parties organized for meeting opposite sex is also popular, followed byasking colleagues and boss at the workplace for an introduction. The use ofcommercial dating services is still a rare activity.
The second question I posed was: who engages in these kinds of activities? Itturns out that there is a substantial variation in the likelihood of engaging in these
activities. For example, as shown in Figure 17, individual income affects thepropensity to engage in the active search of a partner for men: that is, the higher theincome level, the greater the chances of search activities. Women do not show asimilar tendency.
Figure 18 shows the relationship between employment status and the likelihoodof engaging in partner-searching activities. For both women and men, the chances arehigher among those who have regular employment and those engaged inself-employment. If one holds a non-regular job or not working, the chances aresubstantially reduced. There are other factors, such as educational attainment, home12

environment, and the intention to get married, affecting the propensity to engage inpartner-searching activities. These results suggest that socio-economic positions andhome environment are related to an individual’s decision to engage in the active searchof a partner.
Finally, does searching actively for a potential partner really make a differencein the likelihood of finding a partner? The answer, I am afraid, is no. The following
procedure was used to evaluate the impact. I took the respondents who did not have apartner in the first wave of the survey and examined what proportion of them actuallyfound a partner by the second wave. I computed the proportion separately for those
who engaged in “the active search” for a partner and those who did not. Here is theresult.
Even if people did not actively seek a partner, 11 percent ended up meeting apartner the following year. People do meet partners by chance. That’s good. If
people actively searched for a partner, 17 percent found partners the following year – anincrease of 6 percent. In terms of the odds of finding a partner, those who engaged in
active search are 1.5 times more likely to find a partner than those who did not. This
number is shown in Figure 19 as “gross effect” of the active search. And as you cansee, the difference in odds is slightly higher among females than males. Among
females, 1.7 times greater, and among males, the odds of finding a partner are 1.4 times
greater, if they engaged in active search. So the looking actively for a partner seems to
make a difference in finding a partner.
However, as we already know, socio-economic position and home environment
are related to the chances of engaging in the active search of a partner.
Socio-economic position and home environment are also related to the chances offinding a partner. Therefore, if we compare the people who have the samesocio-economic positions and background, the effect of the active search disappears.
The net effects, after controlling for other factors, are shown in Figure 19. For both
men and women, the odds ratios are virtually 1.0. This means that the odds of findinga partner are the same for the two groups of people: those who engaged in active searchand those who did not.
The apparent gross difference we observed in the likelihood of finding apartner between the two groups can be explained by the fact that socio-economicallyadvantaged youth are more likely to look actively for a partner and, at the same time,
are more likely to find partners. It is not the search activities themselves that are
making the real difference in the probability of finding a partner. Rather, one’s
position in the labor market and home environment, which are causally prior to the13partner-searching activities, are responsible for the differences in outcomes. We
should not, therefore, overestimate the effect of search activities.
So far I have focused on the activities of searching for a partner. Finally, I
would like to talk briefly about transition to marriage. If we examine the chances ofgetting married, again socio-economic positions are found to have a very similar
influence. The final piece of empirical evidence deals with the respondent’s chancesof being married in wave 2, given that the respondent was not married at the time ofwave 1.
Figure 20 shows the effect of first employment on marriage chances. For both
men and women, the chances of getting married are substantially higher among regular
workers and the self-employed than non-regular workers. The entry labor market
position appears to have a long-lasting impact on marriage prospects. I have notshown here, but income is a strong predictor of the chances of marriage for men: thehigher the income level, the greater the chances of marriage.
In addition, co-residence with parents acts as a factor which reduces the
chances of marriage (see Figure 21). A large proportion—75 percent—of single
respondents in our sample live with their parents. For many young people, parental
homes offer comfortable living arrangements, and leaving home and getting married canbe associated with a reduction in the standard of living. Alternatively, parents who areeconomically disadvantaged may be dependent on the youth to support the family. In
either case, living in the parental home seems to deter young people from starting a new
family. In summary, these results suggest that the chances of getting married are
affected not only by people’s labor market positions but also by people’s homeenvironment.
4. CONCLUSIONSIn this lecture, I have examined the process of two critical transitions for Japaneseyoung people: the transition to work and the transition to marriage. At thesetransitions, social inequality, or the unequal distribution of life chances, clearly occupied
the central place.
In the transition from school to work, I focused on the role of schools in
shaping the unequal distribution of the outcomes of the first job. Previous studies havepointed out the distinctive features of the school-to-work transition among high school
graduates in Japan. Japanese schools play an active role in matching students to jobs,
and the empirical evidence suggests that there is no apparent decline in the use of theschool-mediated system or the effects of using such a system. The school-mediated14transition continues to provide assistance to the socially disadvantaged. Critics of theschool-mediated system claim that the schools should not take the responsibility ofplacing students because they interfere with the notions of individual freedom andresponsibility. However, these critics do not fully recognize the fact that the students
coming from less advantaged social origins and those who were not successful in theearly stages of the job search are the people who benefit most from the school-mediatedsystem. Dismantling the system will further disadvantage those who are alreadydisadvantaged in society.
With regard to the transition to marriage, I focused on the process of finding amarriage partner, rather than the actual marriage. However, a very similar mechanism
can be found about the likelihood of getting married. There are substantial differences
between those who married and those who stayed single according to socio-economic
position and home environment. Social inequality accumulated at earlier life stages,
such as the unequal chances of entry into employment and one’s parental homeenvironment, have profound influences on subsequent life events, such as dating andmarriage.
Despite the increased popularity in the activities leading to finding a marriage
partner, the effectiveness of these activities is open to question. The efforts of the local
government to sponsor official settings for meeting prospective spouses and theMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s project looking into how to promote private
dating services are probably missing the real target, if the purpose is to increase themarriage and fertility rate. Young people who already have stable jobs and good
income are also those most likely to take advantage of these opportunities. If we wish
to promote successful marriages, targeting at labor market conditions among young
people should be more promising.
In concluding this lecture, I would like to stress the importance of (1)employing the dynamic life course perspective, and (2) paying attention to the role ofinstitutions, in understanding the transitions experienced by Japanese youth. Family
background, education, work, and family formation are sequenced and linked to eachother. Getting a job or finding a marriage partner does not take place as an isolated
event. Rather, they are embedded in the dynamic sequence of events in the life courseof the individual. More generally, events which happen at the earlier stages of the life
course (such as education and first employment) may have enduring impacts on later
life chances (such as marriage and childbirth). In particular, we need to pay close
attention to how the advantages and disadvantages are accumulated across the life
course. It is crucial to examine the process through which the accumulation of15

advantages and disadvantages is passed on to the subsequent stages of life course,
thereby reproducing social inequality across the life course.
We also need to pay attention to how institutions affect individual life chances
and the shape of social inequality at various stages. Institutions, such as schools, havethe potential for affecting the life chances of the individual at particular stages, andbreaking the cycle of cumulative disadvantages. Only through tracing the process of
cumulative advantages and disadvantages and recognizing the role played byinstitutions, are we able to understand the mechanisms through which social inequality
is produced and reproduced in Japanese society.

16

Table 1. Methods Used for Searching a Job by Education for Three Countries (multiple answers)
Relatives Friends Booklets
Ads
Public Schools Private
Other
Magazines
officesagenciesJapan
Secondary education
22.4
11.7
4.9
6.6
4.5
62.6
0.9
3.7
Higher education
25.1
15.8
19.5
13.0
4.0
59.6
3.4
11.6
USA
Secondary education
41.1
35.5
0.0
45.8
15.7
13.8
8.4
30.1
Higher education
38.4
36.1
0.0
56.2
16.4
46.6
14.6
27.4
Britain
Secondary education
37.6
29.8
0.0
48.7
15.2
42.3
25.9
12.1
Higher education
18.1
25.0
0.0
68.1
14.7
36.2
21.6
11.2
Source: Koyo Shokugyo Sogo Kenkyusho. Seishonen no Shokugyo Tekiou nikansuru Kokusai Hikaku Kenkyu.
(Tokyo: Koyo Shokugyo Sogo Kenkyusho, 1989).

Table 2. Timing of the Start of Job Search (%)
Italy
France Germany Britain Sweden All Europe Japan
When started looking for a job
more than 3 months before graduation
11.0
8.0
29.0
35.0
25.0
23.0
96.0
1-3 months before
5.0
9.0
19.0
13.0
28.0
18.0
1.0
at the time fo graduation
42.0
18.0
34.0
24.0
33.0
32.0
2.0
1-3 months after
25.0
16.0
10.0
12.0
6.0
12.0
0.0
3 months after
17.0
48.0
7.0
15.0
8.0
14.0
1.0
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source: Nihon Rodo Kenkyu Kiko (ed.) Koto Kyoiku to Shokugyo nikansuru Kokusai Hikaku Kenkyu(Tokyo: Nihon Rodo Kenkyu Kiko, 2003)

Table 3. Methods Used for Looking for a Job (multiple answers) (%)
Italy
France Germany Britain Sweden All Europe Japan
Application to an opening
48.0
75.0
74.0
69.0
78.0
71.0
73.0
Direct contact to company
70.0
79.0
60.0
40.0
61.0
57.0
13.0
Advertisement
10.0
24.0
11.0
1.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
Approach from employer
19.0
10.0
12.0
9.0
18.0
15.0
14.0
Public employment agency
40.0
63.0
40.0
26.0
48.0
39.0
13.0
Private employment agency
14.0
16.0
4.0
27.0
― 20.013.0
School placement office
10.0
14.0
7.0
37.0
3.0
17.0
63.0
University professors
13.0
6.0
8.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
23.0
Personal connection
54.0
39.0
26.0
27.0
25.0
32.0
21.0
Source: Nihon Rodo Kenkyu Kiko (ed.) Koto Kyoiku to Shokugyo nikansuru Kokusai Hikaku Kenkyu(Tokyo: Nihon Rodo Kenkyu Kiko, 2003)

17

Figure 1.
Figure Destinations of High School Graduates, 1950-2008
Got Job

Non-work, non-study

Vocational Educ

07

04

20

01

20

98

20

95

19

92

19

89

19

86

19

19

83

80

19

77

19

74

19

71

19

19

68

65

19

62

19

59

19

19

56

19

19

19

53

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50

P ro po rtio n

Higher EducYear

Source: Ministry of Education, Gakko Kihon Chosa (Tokyo: Ministry of Education,
various years)
Figure 2.
Figure Rate of Job Openings to Jop Applicants for High School
Graduates
1955-2008
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
07

05

03

01

99

97

95

93

91

89

87

85

83

81

79

77

75

73

71

69

67

65

63

61

55

0.00

Source: Shokugyo Anteikyoku, Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, Shinki
Gakusotsusha no Rodo Shijyo (Tokyo: Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, various
years)

18

Figure 3. School Mediation Rate among High School
Graduates by Youth and Mid-aged Samples (%)
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00

Yo u th 2 0 - 3 4 sample

Mid- age d 3 5 - 4 0 sample

Mid-aged

Figure 4. School Mediation and Timing of the Start
of First Job

Youth

0.00

schoolmediation
no mediation
schoolmediation
no mediation
0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

19

80.0

100.0

Yo u t h

M id- age d

Figure 5. School Mediation and Whether theFirst Job was Something the Respondents
Desiredsc h o o lm e diat io n
n o m e diat io n
sc h o o lm e diat io n
n o m e diat io n
0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Youth

M id- age d

Figure 6. School Mediation and Firm Size
(Proportion of Students who Work in Large
Firm and Public Sector)
sc h o o lm e diat io n
n o m e diat io n
sc h o o lm e diat io n
n o m e diat io n
0.0

10.0

20.0

20

30.0

40.0

50.0

Yo u t h

M id- age d

Figure 7. School Mediation and Employment
Status (Proportion of St ud ent s who Ob tained
Regular Employment )sc h o o lm e diat io n

n o m e diat io n

sc h o o lm e diat io n

n o m e diat io n
0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Figure 8. Social Background and School Mediation
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

Prof -m a na g eri a l

R outi ne nonm a nua l

Sel f -em pl oy ed

21

Sk i l l ed m a nua l

N on-s k i l l ed
m a nua lFigure 9.
Figure Destinations of College Graduates, 1955-2008
Got Jobs

Graduate School

Non-work, non-study

100
Proportion

80
60
40
20

19
55
19
58
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06

0

Year

Source: Ministry of Education, Gakko Kihon Chosa (Tokyo: Ministry of Education,
various years)

Mid-aged

Figure 10. School Mediation and Timing of the First
Job
Late no mediation
Late school mediation
Early

Youth

Late no mediation
Late school mediation
Early
0.0

50.0

22

100.0

Mid-aged

Figure 11. School Mediation and Employment Status(Proportion of Students who Obtained Regular
Employment)

Late no mediation
Late school mediation
Early

Youth

Late no mediation
Late school mediation
Early
0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Figure 12. Trend in Toral Fertility Rate in Japan
since 1950
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2008

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (ed.),Population Statistics 2010 (Tokyo: National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research, 2010)23

Figure 13. Proportion of People Who Were Never-Married for Men
100
80
60
40
20
0

20-24

1950

1960

25-29
1970

30-34
1980

1990

35-39
2000

2005

Figure 13. Proportion of People Who Were Never-Married, Women
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

20-24
1950

1960

25-29
1970

30-34
1980

1990

35-39
2000

2005

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (ed.)
Kokusei Chosa (Population Censuses) (Tokyo: Statistics Bureau, various years)

24Figure 14. Proportion of People who are Engaged in
Activities to Find a Partner

40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0

Total

FemaleMale

Figure 15. Proportion of People who are Engaged in
Activities to Find a Partner by Age Group andGender
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-40

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-40

FemaleMale

25

Figure 16. Distribution of Various Activities to Find a Partner
by Gender (%)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Ask friends for introduction
Take part in drinking parties
Ask colleagues and boss
Take part in enrichment lessons and hobby
meetings
Take courses and join club activities
Use internet and mobile phone
Ask parents and siblings

FemaleMale

Take part in arranged dates
Use dating services

FemaleMale

Figure 17. Proportion of People who are Engaged in Activities
to Find a Partner by Income and Gender
45,000+35,000-<45,000
25,000-<35,000
15,000-<25,000
7500-<15,000<7500
45,000+35,000-<45,000
25,000-<35,000
15,000-<25,000
7500-<15,000
<7500
0

10

20

26

30

40

50

F ema l e

Ma l eFigure 18. Proportion of Non-married People who
are Engaged in Activities to Find a Partner byEmployment and GenderN ot work i ng
Sel f -empl oy ed
N on-reg ul a r
R eg ul a r
N ot work i ng
Sel f -empl oy ed
N on-reg ul a r
R eg ul a r

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Figure 19. The Effect of Active Search on the Odds of Finding a
Partner, Before and After Control for Other Relevant Factors
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Gross Net
Total

Gross Net
Female27

Gross Net
Male

Figure 20. Proportion of People who Got Married from
Wave I to Wave II by the First Employment Status by
GenderMale

Self-employedNon-regularFemaleRegularSelf-employedNon-regular
Regular
00

20

40

60

80

FemaleMale

Figure 21. Proportion of People who Got Married
from Wave I to Wave II by Living Arrangement by
GenderLiving with Parents
Not living with Parents

Living with Parents
Not living with Parents
0.0

2.0

4.0

28

6.0

8.0

東京大学社会科学研究所パネル調査プロジェクトについて
労働市場の構造変動、急激な少子高齢化、グローバル化の進展などにともない、日本社会における就業、結婚、家族、教育、意識、ライフスタイルのあり方は大きく変化を遂げようとしている。これからの日本社会がどのような方向に進むのかを考える上で、現在生じている変化がどのような原因によるものなのか、あるいはどこが変化してどこが変化していないのかを明確にすることはきわめて重要である。
本プロジェクトは、こうした問題をパネル調査の手法を用いることによって、実証的に解明することを研究課題とするものである。このため社会科学研究所では、若年パネル調
査、壮年パネル調査、高卒パネル調査の３つのパネル調査を実施している。

本プロジェクトの推進にあたり、以下の資金提供を受けた。記して感謝したい。

文部科学省・独立行政法人日本学術振興会科学研究費補助金
基盤研究 S：2006 年度～2009 年度、2010 年度～2014 年度
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東京大学社会科学研究所パネル調査プロジェクト
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東京大学社会科学研究所パネル調査プロジェクト ディスカッションペーパーシリーズ

No.1

山本耕資

標本調査における性別・年齢による層化の効果：100 万人シミュレーション（2007 年 4 月発行）

No.2

石田浩
三輪哲
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大島真夫

仕事・健康・希望：「働き方とライフスタイルの変化に関する調査（JLPS）2007」の結果から（2007 年 12 月発行）

No.3

中澤渉

性別役割分業意識の日英比較と変動要因：British Household Panel
Survey を用いて（2007 年 12 月発行）

No.4

戸ヶ里泰典

大規模多目的一般住民調査向け東大健康社会学版 SOC3 項目スケー
ル：(University of Tokyo Health Sociology version of the SOC3 scale:
SOC3-UTHS)の開発（2008 年 1 月発行）

No.5

戸ヶ里泰典

20～40 歳の成人男女における健康保持・ストレス対処能力 sense ofcoherence の形成・規定にかかわる思春期及び成人期の社会的要因に関する研究（2008 年 1 月発行）

No.6

田辺俊介
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職業・産業コーディングマニュアルと作業記録（2008 年 2 月発行）

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No.8

深堀聰子

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No.9

戸ヶ里泰典

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No.10

三輪哲

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No.11

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No.12

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No.13

伊藤秀樹

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No.14

相澤真一

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No.15

元治恵子

若年層のキャリアデザイン・ライフデザインの変化―高校在学時から高卒 3 年目への変化―（2008 年 6 月発行）

No.16

橋本摂子

性別役割意識の揺らぎをたどる（1）―結婚アスピレーションから見た行動規範と現状追認の距離―（2008 年 6 月発行）

No.17

石田浩

世代間移動の閉鎖性は上昇したのか（2008 年 11 月発行）

No.18

石田浩
結婚・健康・地域：「働き方とライフスタイルの変化に関する調査
三輪哲（JLPS）2008」の結果から（2008 年 12 月発行）
村上あかね

No.19

SawakoChange in Living Arrangement of Unmarried Adults with Parents and
SHIRAHASE Income Inequality in Japan with Comparative Perspective（2009 年 2 月発行）

No.20

WataruInequality of Opportunities for Access to Universities among the Japanese
NAKAZAWA Young People: Focused on the Scholarship Loan Program（2009 年 2 月発行）

No.21

Hiroshi
ISHIDA

Educational Attainment and Social Background（2009 年 2 月発行）

No.22

大島真夫

大学就職部の斡旋機能とその効果（2009 年 3 月発行）

No.23

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職業的地位の変容に関する基礎分析ら（2009 年 3 月発行）

No.24

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ストレス対処能力概念 Sense of Coherence の抑うつ傾向ならびに心理社会的な職場環境との因果関係の検証―構造方程式モデリングを用いた検討（2009 年 4 月発行）

No.25

戸ヶ里泰典

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No.26

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JLPS wave1 と wave2 の比較か

No.27

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ISHIDA

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No.28

菅万理

母親の就労が思春期の子どもの行動・学業に及ぼす効果：Propensity
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No.29

橋本摂子

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ットモデルによるアスピレーション分析（2009 年 12 月発行）

No.30

石田浩
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田辺俊介
村上あかね

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No.31

中澤渉

男女間のメンタルヘルスの変動要因の違いに関する分析（2010 年 2
月発行）

No.32

平沢和司

確率抽出データを用いた大卒就職機会に関する検討（2010 年 3 月発
行）

No.33

長尾由希子

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No.34

山本耕資
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No.35

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変化の方向とパターンを区別したパネルデータ分析の可能性：従業上の地位の変化がもたらす所得変化を事例として（2010 年 3 月発行）

No.36

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パネル調査にみる若者の交際の現状（2010 年 5 月発行）

No.37

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No.38

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希望・所得変動・自己啓発「働き方とライフスタイルの変化に関する全国調査（JLPS）2010」の結果から（2011 年 2 月発行）

No.39

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No.40

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大卒就職における OB 利用の効果と機会格差（2011 年 2 月発行）

No.41Hiroshi
ISHIDA

Social Inequality among Japanese Youth: Education, Work, and Marriage
in Contemporary Japan（2011 年 2 月発行）

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