Fossil FuelExpansion inAsia-PacificAsia’s Coal Map

Coal Trends●In 2021, President Xi Jinping announced China would stop coal financing abroad.
China was at that point the world’s largest coal financier.

●In Bangladesh, this was followed by the cancellation of 10 coal based powerplants.

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This announcement was accompanied in 2021 by similar commitments from South
Korea and Japan.

●Japan (JICA) maintained two high profile exceptions to this - the Matarbari Phase
II in Bangladesh and the Indramayu Phase IV in Indonesia. Eventually bothprojects were cancelled after sustained pressure.

●Across the region and globally, coal development has hit a new low and theamount of cancellations are now almost as large as the total operational capacity.

But there are exceptions…
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China and India account for 82% for pre-construction capacity (announced,pre-permit and permitted)
Two thirds of new coal power (~47 GW) coming online in 2023 was in China.
Indonesia (5.9 GW) and India (5.5 GW) were the next two on the list.
70% of coal power under consideration is in China. India is a distant but
significant second at about 12%.
Coal Power Plant retirements are also slowing - a sign of what is coming toextend the lifetime the coal.
In Bangladesh, only one coal power plant remains under construction after
the mega investments in pivoting for coal infrastructure failed (Patuakhali
RNPL 1320 MW).

Asia Gas Map

Gas Trends
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65% of new gas fired capacity is in Asia
Southeast Asian countries have planned to invest 220 billion USD toward rapidly
scaling up gas capacity. The implementation of the plan would see a doubling of gas
capacity in the region and raise LNG imports into the region by 80%
LNG is often promoted as a cleaner fossil alternative - but its not.
“Gas as a transition fuel” is a narrative that has taken hold across Asia as countries
chase resources for energy security and development.
Many Asian governments are aggressively pursuing LNG expansion
Due to volatility and high prices of LNG in the spot market, (particularly after
Russia-Ukraine war began) many Global South countries have taken on massive
economic stress and escalating debt
A poor choice environmentally and economically

Bangladesh Integrated Energy and Power Masterplan - a case study
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The IEPMP was approved in November 2023 despite lot of disapproval fromcivil society
The plan was drafted by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan who weretaken on by JICA to devise the plan.
JICA had previously also devised the Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP) 2016
and its update in 2018
The IEPMP is “soaked in fossil fuels and not aligned with the ParisAgreement” said Japan Centre for Sustainable Environment and Society(JACSES)
According to the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, theplan does not pay adequate attention to i) Overcapacity, ii) Renewable Energyand iii) Risks of unproven technologies and fuels.
The IEPMP is a plan toward 2050 - a departure from the traditional 5 year
PSMPs that preceded it

IEPMP cotd.

The IEPMP has
projected that thecountry’s peak power
demand will reach 27.1
GW in 2030 andfollowing 7%
growth/annum and 84.6
GW by 2050. To meetthis demand, IEPMP
estimates the need for
an installed power
capacity of 35.4GW.

Current overcapacity
is high - more than
40% in 2022, and has
been a sign of low
efficiency in thesystem.

High capacity
payments beleaguer
the industry and has
created an oligarchy
around the energy
sector.

The IEPMP
continually dismisses
RE, - either calling it
too variable andintermittent and evenreplacing the rhetoricof “green energy” with“clean energy”

IEPMP cotd.
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Instead the fuel mix put forward by the IEPMP for the 2041 target only has
room for 24% domestic renewables with more than that coming only from
LNG and other Gas (27%).
The trajectory of RE prices (with battery) is ignored and the IEPMP directly
contradicts the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan which promises 40% by 2041 a commitment still today regularly reiterated by the government.
Instead it offers significant roles to unproven technology and false solutions
such as CCS, hydrogen and ammonia co-firing, extending the life of fossil
based assets
Has been accused of serving Japan’s interest over Bangladesh’s.
Issues with transparency, an already struggling LNG procurement amidst
economic slowdown, and high levels of cronyism and corruption havecontributed already to economic uncertainty in Bangladesh.

Transition fuel?

If LNG is a transition fuel,when is the transition?

If ammonia keeps coal
alive, when is thetransition?

If CCS and Hydrogen use
more LNG, when is thetransition?