WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONCOMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CAS/THORPEX ICSC/
GIFS-TIGGE-9(13.IX.2011)__________

THORPEX ICSCGIFS TIGGE Working Group
Ninth Meeting
Original: ENGLISH
WMO, Geneva
31 August to 2 September 2011

Draft minutes of the 9th GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting
1.

Organization of the meeting

1.1.

Opening and aims of the meeting

The meeting was opened by Deon Terblanche the recently appointed Director of the ARE at
WMO. He said that he had spent 30 years in the South African Weather Service and had abackground of research in a developing country. He noted that the TIGGE initiative was one of
the real successes of the THORPEX programme and was built around exemplary international
co-operation between the partners. In conclusion, he thanked all participants for their continuing
strong support and said that TIGGE/GIFS would form an important legacy from THORPEX andwished the meeting every success.
Zoltan Toth then outlined his vision for the aims of the meeting. He reviewed the TIGGE data
set which was available from 2006. Centres continue to add data and the archive has beenshown to be of great value for EPS research. There were several open questions – not leastcan data providers continue to supply information and the archive centres continue to expand
the data stored as model resolution increases? It seems this is likely to be the case at least
until the end of the THORPEX programme in 2014.
Concerning GIFS the conceptual plan had been laid down in 2004 and a way ahead in
conjunction with the SWFDPs was agreed. However, issues such as real time access toensemble data and achieving effective international collaboration to develop new products
remained. Progress with the “tool box”, rules, software exchange etc., was slow but needed tobe made. Overall progress had also been slow in the focus areas of TCs and heavy
precipitation mainly due to lack of commitments and failure to establish the focus groups. He
saw two distinct ways ahead – either make GIFS-TIGGE primarily a scientific discussion groupor assign higher priority to GIFS product development.
He then noted that it was his intention to stand down as Co-Chair but to remain a member of the
WG until a new member from NOAA has been appointed. The WG thanked him for all thecontributions he had made to their work over many years.
In discussion it was felt that the focus of the WG should lie between the two extremes of a
discussion group or a GIFS product development group. The SWFDPs can potentially getsignificant benefit from state of the art multi-model EPS products.

1.2.

Adoption of the Agenda

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 2
It was decided to incorporate relevant aspects of Item 6.1 within Item 6.2 and drop the former.
The Symposium on Ensemble Methods planned for November 2012 would be discussed under
Item 11. With these amendments the Agenda was adopted.

1.3.

Working Arrangements

These were discussed and agreed. The WMO would host a WG dinner on the evening of the 1
September.

2.

Reports and actions from precious meetings

2.1.

Status of actions from the eighth GIFS-TIGGE meeting

The status of GIFS-TIGGE 8 actions can be summarised as follows.
8.2.1 - completed
8.4.1 - some progress made8.4.2 - not much progress, more focussed effort needed.
8.4.3 – limited progress
8.4.4 – completed
8.4.5 – completed
8.5.1 – completed
8.5.2 – no progress to report
8.5.3 - no progress to report
8.5.4 – not done, to be discussed further under the verification agenda item
8.5.5 – will be implemented through GEOWOW project8.6.1 – some progress, will be reviewed later in the meeting
8.6.2 – being implemented. CMA is experiencing difficulties.
8.6.3 – 5 centres had complied, the situation would be reviewed later in the meeting
8.6.4 – completed, but a volunteer was needed to continue the work
8.6.5 – completed
8.6.6 – completed
8.6.7 – would be discussed under item 3.1
8.6.8 – completed
8.7.1 – completed
8.7.2 – work underway, delayed due to difficulties with GRIB 2 but should be finished soon
8.9.1 – limited progress but some support had been given to TC RSMC New Dehli. A systemic
approach was required. This topic would be discussed again later in the meeting.
8.10.1 – completed
8.10.2 – completed
8.11.1 – not done, the meeting agreed that links should be made to the new sub-seasonal toseasonal project.
8.11.2 – completed.
8.14.1 – nearly completed.
The outstanding and partially completed actions were then rationalised taking account of
discussions at this meeting (an overall list of new actions is at Annex 1)
The minutes of the joint meeting with the SWFDP were then reviewed and the main points
noted – closer links with the SWFDP SG and associated groups was essential and would be
implemented progressively during 2012.

2.2.

IPO update including an update on the THORPEX mid-term review

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Jim Caughey gave a short presentation on the status of THORPEX. He covered the DAOS WG
and PDP WGs noting recent activities and areas of interest for the future. The DAOS WG has
prepared a comprehensive statement on the impact of targeted observations on NWP and
would submit a shortened version for publication in BAMS. They had carried out intercomparisons of observations impacts and were involved in the assessment of the highly
successful ConcordIASI field campaign. The PDP WG had focussed on T-PARC, TCS 08 and
Winter T-PARC and the main results related to dynamical processes were being written up.
They had arranged a Workshop on “Diagnosing model errors” which had emphasised the
crucial need for further research in this area to guide model development. In this regard theywould focus on The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and Cyclonic Systems (CS). A number ofkey topics would be addressed in the future including ensemble DA, diabatic processes,organised tropical convection (with YOTC) etc.,
The outcome of the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal and Polar Prediction Workshops were thenoutlined. In both cases WMO intended to set up new projects supported by consultants. The firststep would be the production and endorsement of detailed Implementation Plans.
The YOTC initiative was outlined including the recent highly successful Science Symposium
hosted in Beijing by CMA and CAS. YOTC was now well established with a small project officebased at NCAR. It was expected that the data sets and the NASA Giovanni satellite system
would also be of great interest for research outside the tropics. YOTC has set up an MJO task
Force.
The THORPEX Regional Committees were then outlined. Europe had hosted an excellent
workshop at Karlsruhe and was revising the European Plan in the light of discussions. In Asia a
7th meeting of the Committee hosted by KMA had taken place on Jeju Island and this had beenpreceded by a 3rd Asian THORPEX Science Symposium at which 70 researchers had beenpresent. In North America efforts were devoted to supporting the many major field campaigns
including T-PARC and in SERA studies. In the Southern Hemisphere progress was somewhat
slow although the benefits of the THORPEX programme for improving collaboration andinteraction amongst scientists was clear. THORPEX Africa was also making rather slow
progress but at a meeting held in WMO during July a fresh approach had been discussed and it
was hoped that this would stimulate further activity.
Finally, it was noted that David Burridge had retired from the IPO and that Tetsuo Nakazawa
was now the IPO manager.

2.3.

Outcome of the IWTC

Richard Swinbank summarised the main points of relevance. Some sessions had been ofparticular interest. Three presentations were given. These included plans for GIFS/TIGGE
including the reliability of probability products. The NW Pacific TC experiment was also
described.
The TC community showed quite a lot of interest but there was much more work to do toestablish effective links. There was a need to establish a good dialogue with “end” users.
He subsequently visited RSMC Darwin and found that they did not use EPS products. There
was a need for further interaction and education about what was already available.

2.4.

Outcome of the polar workshop

Laurie Wilson outlined some the main recommendations from the meeting. Verification should
be undertaken from 60 degrees poleward and EPS verification also carried out. It was felt thatverification could be strengthened by using operational and research data bases such as
TIGGE.
DA could be improved using new satellites including the Canadian Polar mission. Experiments
were needed to determine the utility of existing and new sources data.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 4
Additional field campaigns were recommended as was more extensive collaboration with the
WCRP. The focus should be on the development of coupled models. There were greatscientific and organisational issues and TIGGE was noted as a good model for effective
international collaboration.
The proposed setting up of a Polar Prediction Project was noted with the first task being theappointment of a Steering Group and consultant to prepare an Implementation Plan.

Action 9.2.1: Co‐chairs to establish contact with Thomas Jung (chair of polar project),
establishing collaboration with polar project
2.5.

Outcome of the workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction

Richard Swinbank gave a brief overview of this workshop noting that the THORPEX summary(Item 2.2) had covered the main issues. The first step would be preparation of an
Implementation Plan for endorsement by the WWRP JSC and ICSC. It was expected that a
draft Plan would available by the Spring of 2012.

Action 9.2.2: Co‐chairs to establish links with new sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction project
especially David Anderson (consultant), and Frederic Vitart and Andrew Robertson (co‐chairs)
to maximize compatibility between the new project archive and the existing TIGGE archive.
2.6.

Outcome of the WWRP JSC4 meeting

Jim Caughey outlined the discussions at the recent WWRP JSC 4 meeting related to TIGGE.
The JSC stressed the importance of close and effective links with the SWFDP initiative andasked the GIFS- TIGGE WG to report on the status of these links at JCS 5 in the Spring of 2012.
The JSC 4 also asked the WG to consider the production of a refereed paper in the open
literature based upon and summarising the main areas of GIFS/TIGGE research that had
appeared in the literature.

Action 9.2.3: Co‐chairs to report on status of collaboration with SWFDP project at
WWRP/JSC5 meeting, Spring 2012.
Action 9.2.4: WG members to consider developing an article reviewing TIGGE research inrefereed literature, for discussion next WG meeting.
3.

TIGGE

3.1.

Updates from the archive centres

The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data: more than 520 terabytes (2.6billion fields). There are around 1300 registered users of the TIGGE data portal. The number ofusers and volumes of data accessed continue to increase. ECMWF has typically 60 active users
each month, and NCAR 10 active users; users of the CMA archive are mainly internal. On
average 25TB of data are accessed each month and 5-6TB are delivered to users. KMA and
BOM have temporarily stopped contributing data to the TIGGE archive, although KMA was now
conducting tests for their new data.
NCAR –50TB of data (3 months of TIGGE forecasts) and 180GB of CXML data sets are now
held on-line, to provide quicker turnaround, and the full set of data is held off-line. NCAR wasCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 5
implementing the first version of the TIGGE model validation data portal which contained a wide
range of observations and analysis data.
Concerning archive usage about 17TB of data had been downloaded but there were not many
very active users (about 10). They had seen a jump in the use of the CXML archive. Futureplans included a high performance centralised disk giving better I/O and better turnaround time.
The potential for subscription services is being investigated.
In discussion it was noted that single point time series could still not be easily obtained. It wasalso recognised that the relatively short time series of TIGGE data would limit its usefulness forsome applications.
ECMWF – There was 520 TB of data and 1300 registered users. Of these only 50-60 wereactive each month. Data volumes were steadily increasing. A new batch access arrangement
has been implemented; in discussion it was noted that this was working well. A next generation
portal is under development.
The GEOWOW project was expected to start on the 1st September and would provide a single
point time series for a small number of fields. TIGGE –LAM European fields would be added.
Data would be provided in NetCDF as well as GRIB.
CMA - A chronology of recent advances was given including establishing a test platform (2006),
using the MARS system (2007/8), updating performance and portal (2009), a system upgrade(2010) and establishing the TIGGE Data Management System (2010) to provide data directly tousers. A description was then given of the TIGGE Archive Platform Infrastructure and data
Processing for internet users and other users within CMA.
About 441Gb of data was archived of which ECMWF is nearly 50% following their recent model
upgrade. There were developments in the data server and monitoring. There was continuous
upgrading of the archive capability. In discussion it was noted that KMA is now able to senddata direct to CMA.
It was noted that while the archive centres can support the current volumes of TIGGE data there
were some concerns over the support for the full volume of archived data in the future.
Significant increases in data volumes, as happened for example when the ECMWF EPS
resolution was increased in early 2010, can put strain on the archives and require system
upgrades to provide continued stable support. Several centres have increased resolution in thelast year, and further increases are planned. It may be necessary to review the archiving
strategy (including the retention of old data) when considering the future requirements for
TIGGE data exchange.

3.2.

News from the data providers

JMA - operated several EPSs for the medium range, typhoons and seasonal forecasts. The
EPS for 1 week ahead has been contributed to TIGGE since Oct. 2006. Stochastic physics wasintroduced in Dec. 2010 and initial condition perturbations were extended in the Southern
Hemisphere in March 2011. The latest model description was sent to ECMWF. Recent EPS skill
has improved but is still inferior to ECMWF by about 1 day. The T+0 field is now provided at
00UTC, as requested. Incorrect “land-sea mask values” for the period 16 Dec 2010 to 28 March2011 had been flagged.
JMA is contributing both deterministic and probabilistic products to the website for the SE Asia
SWFDP.
JMA is the lead centre for verification of EPSs and hosts 2 sites (FTP and web sites) whereverification reports can be accessed and comparisons for each EPS centre providing data areCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 6
available. The number of verification reports is expected to increase as more centres send intheir data.
Canada – The new operational system came into use on the 17 August, and is already
documented on the ECMWF website. The grid spacing is now 66km (formerly 100km), thenumber of levels was 40 (28) and the top level was 2 hPa (10hPa). An improved physics was
employed. The ensemble had 20 forecast members plus the control.
Comparative verification of the old and new systems shows that the new one is better at 500mb
but less so at 850mb and there was much less impact near the surface. The stratosphere wasalso improved as was the spread and RSME. However, surface temperature and wind were notas good as in the old system. Some verification results were now being sent to JMA – thisshould happen routinely from October.
In discussion it was noted that the 20 forecast members were selected randomly from the 192
available from the ensemble data assimilation system. The physics package was also being
further reviewed.
KMA – Since Dec 2010 KMA have been using a new 24-member EPS, forecasting to 10 days
ahead. This is based on the UK Met Office model, with resolution N320 (40km) and 70 levels.
The data volumes, initially 64GB, later 84GB, proved too large to send – the lines were too slow.
Test data is now being sent using LDM; 32 GB can now be sent in 80 mins. Provided tests
continue to be successful, a routine service will be started soon. The CXML cyclone data is notworking after the changeover; it will resume later. The model description is ready to be updated.
At the moment verification data is not being sent to JMA. The new system was performing better
than the old system.
In discussion it was noted that it would be interesting to consider how best to combine EPSs
from 3 different versions of the Unified Model now being run.
BOM - The Australian version of MOGREPS known as AGREPS was being implemented, andreplaces the BOM global EPS that had been run between 2001 and 2010. AGREPS is currently
run in research mode using a 24-member, 37.5-km 70-level regional ensemble for short range
forecasting nested in a 90-km global ensemble. It is expected to become operational at higher
resolution (24km regional & 60km global) in 2012 or 2013 depending on the available
supercomputing capacity. Some verification was underway and the new EPS was proving to bemuch superior to the old. The spread skill was just a little below ECMWF.
ECMWF – The resolution of the EPS has been increased and as a result the amount of archive
data had increased significantly. Initial perturbations are now derived from a combination of
singular vectors with optimised energy growth over 48 hours and perturbations from the newensemble data assimilation system. By the end of 2010 stochastic physics backscatter had
been introduced. The skill was improving and it remains the case that the ECMWF EPS
performs better than the others.
Meteo-France – There were no significant changes to describe. The EPS has 35 members andis run twice a day at 06 and 18 UTC out to 120h ahead. Initial perturbations are from 6 member
SVs. For TC areas there is specific optimisation and a model error component included. During
2012 it was hoped to implement stochastic KE backscatter developed at ECMWF.
CPTEC - CPTEC is working to migrate to an EPS based on the Local Ensemble Transform KF(LETKF) in the next two years. They have recently installed a massively parallel Cray XTC with
30,000 cores however only 5000 are currently being used due to power supply issues. Various
improvements are being implemented in the EPS: initial EOF-based perturbations are nowCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 7
added to the extra-tropics and for new variables (Sea Level Pressure and Humidity). It is alsoplanned to introduce representation of model uncertainties. An Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)
has been developed, using three years of reforecasts to provide a climatology, with the aim ofindicating potential zones of very high winds. The potential of an extended 30-day ensemble
forecast has been studied. The preliminary results indicated some potential to increase skill
above deterministic forecasts after day 5.
CMA – Considerable effort has been devoted to updating global/regional EPS at CMA between
2006 and 2011. The regional (REPS) ensemble has 15 members at a resolution of 15km andforecasts to 60 hours ahead. They plan to upgrade the initial perturbations from error-breeding
to ETKF in 2012.
UK Met Office – Recent and planned developments were described. Following upgrades in2010, the model now had an 18km European grid nested in a 60km global grid with 70 levels.
Hybrid DA (introducing flow-dependent error from MOGREPS into operational DA) went live inJuly 2011. Further major changes are in the pipeline, in conjunction with a supercomputer
upgrade. A new UK EPS will be introduced, with resolution changes to Global and European
short-range versions of MOGREPS. Four runs a day of each EPS were planned. Phased
implementation would take place in 2012.
They were also considering “seamless” ensemble forecasting system by running different
numbers of ensemble members out to as far as 7 months ahead.
USA NOAA – The work of the ensemble team at NCEP was described. Verification scores arebeing produced and will be sent to JMA within the next 12 months. The global EPS system had
been upgraded in 2010. The resolution at T190 was being run to 16 days with a frequency of 4
times each day. They included both ETKF and stochastic perturbations. A new precipitation
analysis was being introduced but only for the continental US at a resolution of 4km. Statistical
downscaling was being performed for the Alaska area on a 6km grid. Some further work was
ongoing to run a high resolution T190 for the first week and then lower resolution T 154 muchfurther ahead.
During discussion it was noted that WG members should all update the Excel Table and add
new information. Data providers are also encouraged to provide initial conditions for verification
purposes; for compatibility with other fields in the TIGGE archive, they should be labelled as
T+0 control forecasts. They should also inform JMA when they expected to deliver verification
data.

Action 9.3.1: All data providers are encouraged to provide T+0 data at 0 and 12 UT at least, 6
hourly if available, in consultation with archive centres.
Action 9.3.2: WG members to inform JMA by Nov 11 (ET‐EPS meeting) what they propose tosupply to WMO Lead Centre on EPS verification, and when.
3.3.

Status of scientific results

Richard Swinbank highlighted recent developments. The focus was now on calibration of EPSs,
combination of multi-models and research related to the development of probabilistic forecasts.
Up to end of 2010 43 publications had been identified, a few more had since been added to thewebsite, but our records are incomplete. Some examples of research studies were given.
Examples included: Hamill, 2011 (multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasts); Froude, 2010,

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 8
(propagation of extra-tropical cyclones; Kipling et. al., 2011 (evolution of perturbation structure),Matsueda and Endo 2011 (skill of MJO forecasts); Frame and Methven 2011 (how different
TIGGE models capture regime change in the medium range); Hamill 2011 (comparison of TC
track forecasts).
In discussion it was noted further impact of TIGGE data on research activities was desired andthat perhaps Universities were not fully aware of the possibilities. It was noted that the tiggeusers mailing list had not taken off. Should new social media be used to raise visibility?
Richard Swinbank also drew the WG’s attention to a new project led by Andrew Charlton-Perez.
He is inviting TIGGE data providers to join a new project, SNAP (Stratospheric Network on
Assessment of Predictability), and provide additional stratospheric output to help researchstratospheric influences on predictability.

Action 9.3.3: WG members to consider joining SNAP project and contribute ensemble forecast
output fields to the SNAP project archive.
Olivier Talagrand then raised the issue of the impact of ensemble size on skill; scores saturate
at between 30 and 50 members. Others noted that the number of members required depends
on what is being estimated; the ensemble mean could be estimated with fewer members, butmore would be needed to represent error covariance structures. There was general justification
for the multi-model approach from purely theoretical considerations. It was noted that using
multi-model products for operations would need real time access to and there were very realtechnical challenges.

3.4.

Publicising TIGGE

A new leaflet had been produced and distributed. WG members were asked to draw attention to
it in their own countries. The availability and possible uses of the TIGGE data should continue tobe publicised (at major conferences, to the academic community, etc.). In addition high levelvisibility had been given to GIFS-TIGGE at the recent GEO Ministerial and TIGGE had
appeared as a chapter in the book presented to all Ministers at the meeting.
It was also recognised that research publications helped in raising awareness of the archives
and available data. The possible WG review paper would help further and plans should be taken
forward to make this a reality.

3.5.

Website development

Additional material had been added to the TIGGE website hosted by ECMWF during 2010.
There was appreciation for the help of ECMWF to implement these improvements.
It was recognised that more HELP pages on the various websites could assist in achieving
greater and more effective use of the data. A brief introductory user guide or manual to show
how to download and use data may be helpful.

Action 9.3.4: WG members to consider adding to training material on the TIGGE data portals,
including data access and manipulation examples, to help potential users of the TIGGE
archive.
3.6.

GEOWOW

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 9
GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is an EU-funded FP7 3year project beginning in September 2011. GEOWOW will make a significant European
contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) by improving theoverall quality of the current GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI), addressing access to data,usability and interoperability. Total funding from the EU will be around 6.6Meuros. The weather
component (participants are ECMWF, Met Office, Meteo-France and KIT) will receive around
1.1 M euros. The project will enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE archive at ECMWF for thewider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast
data at user-specified locations. GEOWOW will promote the wider use of TIGGE data forresearch across a range of GEO Societal Benefit Areas and show how the TIGGE archive canbe used to develop ensemble products for different applications. GEOWOW will demonstrate
the potential use of such ensemble products, with a focus on severe weather, in close liaison
with the WMO SWFDPs

4.

TIGGE-LAM

4.1.

Status and plans of TIGGE-LAM

Tiziana Paccagnella gave an overview of recent developments. It had been decided to pursue a
Regional structure. There were 6 areas: N. America – J. Hacker, Asia – J. Chen, Europe – T.
Paccagnella, S. America – C. Saulo and Africa – S. Landman.
As yet there was no co-ordinator for the Australia/New Zealand region.
The TIGGE LAM Plan was almost ready but a bit more work was needed on some scientificissues. It will be revised at the SRNWP meeting in Tallin in October and it is planned to put it on
the web in November. TIGGE-LAM maintained good links with RDPs and FDPs and HYMEX as
well as close collaboration with Mesoscale Working Group
CMA is now archiving high priority parameters from the CMA Regional EPS System. ECMWF
will archive European products as part of GEOWOW. Efforts were being made to get similararchiving going in other parts of the world. It is recommended that TIGGE-LAM products should
be archived on their native grids and appropriate tools to manage these should be developed.
In Europe TIGGE-LAM is closely involved in the Sochi Olympic test bed (FROST). It would
exploit convective scale multi-model ensembles. Four WGs had been established. These wereWG1 – observations, WG 2 – NWP ensembles, WG 3 – IT and WG 4 – user interface. There
were many potential contributors to WG 2. Wind gusts were a real issue at the Sochi site andthis topic was being widely discussed. Relocation of COSMO-LEPS was planned to the Sochi
region with a 7km resolution and a well trained product. TIGGE-LAM would be represented at
the WWRP MWFR WG to be held in Berlin. Also co-operation was in place with the European
Limited area EPS (EurEPS) a project within Eumetnet. A LAM-EPS community paper for BAMS
is planned. For verification there was a continuing need to get access to high resolution
precipitation fields. The SRNWP inter-operability programme was then briefly outlined.

Action 9.4.1: Tiziana Paccagnella to arrange for report on European TIGGE‐LAM
interoperability to be circulated for the benefit of related activities in other regions by Dec
11.
In N. America the Panel consists of mainly USA and Canadian people. Joshua Hacker is trying
to encourage co-operation between these countries and to co-ordinate with other N. American
efforts and activities.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 10
Asia – Jing Chen had organised a workshop on NWP involving KMA, Japan and Korea.
Developments at CMA (the CMA REPS system – 15km resolution and 15 members) and at
KMA (planning for a LAM-EPS) were discussed as well as the JMA Mesoscale EPS system(MEPS).
S. America – A super model EPS (SMES) has been formed by collecting 54 models. Point
meteograms were a popular display format. This was seen as a very good example of a multimodel approach.
In discussion it was noted that there was no plan to implement the original GIFS concept of realtime system customization, including on-demand LAM EPS runs. Instead, TIGGE LAM should
focus on implementing regional archives, stimulating research and discussions of scientificissues, supporting coordinated initiatives among LAM EPS groups and fostering communication.
For GIFS, the priority is the development on LAM EPS products to complement those based on
global EPS.

4.2.

Links with the WWRP MWFR

There were many common issues such as the Sochi test bed and HYMEX. TIGGE-LAM would
make a presentation at the next MWFR. Also the Joint Verification Working Group will bemeeting at the same time which will enable useful liaison.

5.

GIFS developments

5.1.

Review of status of GIFS developments

Richard Swinbank gave an update of the current position. The exchange of TC forecasts using
CXML started during T-PARC was continuing in near real time. Some work was progressing on
TC products using CXML at MRI/JMA, ESRL, UKMO and Meteo-France/La Reunion but it was
not well co-ordinated. The technical focus groups on TC products and heavy rainfall had not
really got going on.
GEOWOW was noted. It would focus on products for forecasting high impact weather forevaluation within the SWFDPs. Detailed plans were in the process of being put together. The
project plan could be extended to involve other TIGGE partners. There were a number of issues.
Real time access needed to be considered and might best be achieved by extending existing
SWFDP agreements. Evaluation and verification remains a concern.
Tropical cyclone forecast products had been developed for NW Pacific and the RSMC La
Reunion websites. This work could potentially be adapted for other regional projects. The
current CXML products could also be developed further, likely needing an extension to thecontent of CXML files. A WIS metadata definition for CXML files should be developed.
To progress GIFS, gridded fields needed to be considered. In order to support particular
products, a basic sub-set of rainfall forecast fields would need to be exchanged. Ideas for windproducts also needed to be taken forward. It was emphasised that the TIGGE role must include
evaluation of prototype products.

5.2.

Technical focus groups

While a number of prototype products had been developed, the technical focus groups intended
to help coordinate these developments had not really got off the ground.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 11

5.3.

Status of the SWFDPs and links with GIFS

Peter Chen in his presentation noted that the principles of co-operation between GIFS-TIGGE
and the SWFDPs had been agreed. This would involve pre-operational testing of prototype
products. Not very much progress had been made since the joint meeting held and in February2010 and there was a need to now enter a concrete development phase.
The SWFDPs were progressing very well. The WMO congress in 2007 had endorsed the vision
for improving services in developing countries. It fits well with the WMO Strategic Thrusts –Improved Service Delivery/Quality and Strengthening Capacity Building. Many developing
countries have little access or knowledge concerning advanced products – maybe as many ashalf the members of the WMO. The main emphasis was on improving forecasts of severe
weather, improving lead times and improving interactions between NMHSs and the end users.
The current and planned SWFDP regional projects are:
• Southern Africa – now involved 16 countries and would now to be taken forward by thepartner countries coordinated by RSMC Pretoria.
• South Pacific Islands – underway with 9 island states led by RSMC Wellington• S.E. Asia – possibly starting later in 2011 – an Implementation plan is available. A
number of weather radars are available and an RSMC will be set up at Hanoi.
• E. Africa - starting on 1 Sept. 2011. It is focussed on Lake Victoria - some externalfunding was available. It will consider heavy precipitation and winds and aspects
relevant to agriculture including fisheries.
• Bay of Bengal – in development. It will be directed at coastal safety and initially involve 6
countries.
All the SWFDPs will have a well defined forecast cascade from global to regional centres andthen to NMSs responsible for the delivery of products to local disaster management centres.
The website set up by RSMC Pretoria is accessed by 15 countries.
The SWFDPs are especially interested in products that have been well developed and are likely
to be stable i.e. will not be constantly changing. They particularly require products related toheavy rainfall, strong winds etc., out to 5 days ahead.
The links between the SWFDPs and TIGGE were then discussed in some detail. It was notedthat these still needed to be formalised and that only an early stage had been reached. Four
TIGGE data providers were sending EPS data to the SWFDPs in real time, as part of the
SWFDP project. Some multi-model EPS products could be prepared to synthesise information
currently presented separately for each EPS. Prototype products based on TIGGE data sufferfrom a 2-day delay which is a barrier to operational use, but are useful examples of what could
be done. New products would need dialogues between users and product developers.
There was also some discussion of including data from wave models in the archive but it wasthought that this was not the right time to start archiving new data. The SWFDPs can offer
useful manual assessment of multi-model products that would complement the TIGGE objective
automated approach.
It was agreed that the Regional Centres should be the main point of interaction for GIFS-TIGGE.
They will be investing in verification and developing new tools for assessment. In this regard it
was recommended that the GIFS-TIGGE WG be represented at the SWFDP SG which will meet
early next year and at which the Pretoria, Wellington and Nairobi Regional Centres will bepresent.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 12
The GEOWOW project should also help improve links and communications with the SWFDPs
since this will proceed under formal project management methods and to strict timelines.

Action 9.5.1: Co‐chairs to arrange representation at the SWFDP SG meeting in early 2012 anduse this meeting to establish links with RSMCs Pretoria, Wellington & Nairobi
6.

Tropical Cyclones

6.1.

Lessons from T-PARC

Relevant aspects were included under item 6.2.

6.2.

NW Pacific TC experiment

Tetsuo Nakazawa gave a presentation and noted that the WWRP and the TCP in the WMO
were jointly managing this project. The cyclone homepage was discussed. An example of in
CXML data from ECMWF was shown, including position, central pressure and wind speed at
specified locations. Other providers included CMA, MSC, KMA, STI, UKMO, JMA, and NCEP.
The project offered a flexible framework and encompassed analyses, deterministic forecasts
and ensembles. All the data comparisons are available on the webpage (which is ID andpassword protected) e.g. EPS vs deterministic, all centres vs each centre, track vs strike
probability, different ways of presenting strike probability etc.,
A large number of people used the site. Future improvements included extending to include
surface wind speed and precipitation, considering regional data rather than global and looking at
the SWFDP areas. User feedback would be encouraged.
As a contribution to the SWFDPs extreme rainfall was now being considered. The TIGGE database would be used for detecting the high risk areas for high impact weather events. Several
people were working on these topics at MRI. The site software was portable to other regions
and was freely available. It could be the basis for handling gridded data and should be seen as
a community asset.

Action 9.6.1: Tetsuo Nakazawa to request MRI to prepare questionnaire to obtain feedback
from users of websites, including suggestions for improvement
Action 9.6.2: WG members encouraged to contribute additional products to the MRI TC
website.
KMA was using a similar system for CXML data and using Google Earth for presentation. The
meeting felt that an exchange of information on employing Google Earth might be useful since
ECMWF had decided not to proceed in that direction.

6.3.

Southern Africa – SWFDP and RSMC La Reunion activities.

Philippe Arbogast gave a presentation that had been prepared by Matthieu Plu. La Reunion had
been the RSMC for the SW Pacific Ocean since 1993. It provides guidance forecasts. The LAM
is Aladin (Reunion) and runs at 8km resolution with 3D VAR twice a day out to 3 days ahead.
The model is much the same as that run in W. Europe. Results are sent to Pretoria and areavailable on the SWFDP website. For TC tracks several deterministic models and EPSs areused. The RSMC provides the official track forecast including information on uncertainty.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 13
Planned improvements to Aladin include better DA and physics and the generation of
uncertainty cones. Meteo-France will be a partner in the GEOWOW project developing multimodel calibration products.

6.4.

SW Pacific - SWFDDPSteve Ready noted that there were 9 countries and 4 independent forecasting services involvedin this SWFDP. The region was oceanic and data sparse. The RSMC was Wellington which hadaccess to forecasts from a number of global centres including ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. They
were using the MOGREPS 15 day ensemble. Of particular interest was heavy rainfall prediction– they get a good signal for amounts of about 50mm but not so good at higher levels. The
UKMO provides TC data – e.g. tracks and TC genesis probability. The ECMWF maintains a
special web page providing the probability of extreme events e.g. for rainfall, wind and waves.
They also offer EPS grams of swell height and direction which are proving useful. JMA also
maintains a web page for this SWFDP which includes ensemble forecasts of precipitation>50mm. Data are also available for the NOAA GFS and Australian Access-TC model.
South Pacific guidance charts are produced. However, important issues remain to be resolved.
These include poor internet connectivity, the lack of qualified meteorologists in the region andtoo much dependency – 5 of the 9 countries rely entirely on the RSMC.

6.5.

US Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

Zoltan Toth said that this is an R and D program led by NOAA. Annual expenditure is roughly
15M$. The main objective is to improve TC forecasts over the Atlantic. NRL and Universities arealso taking part. EPS work is included with an emphasis on improving initialisation and thequality of derived products. There is the important question of how to better to connect with the
TIGGE community and an open invitation to WG members to establish links. There is aninterest for example concerning product development to link to KMA activities and feed into the
NW Pacific Project webpage. A considerable amount of the available resources (6M$) isdevoted to observational programmes. Google Earth is used for visualisation.

6.6.

New product development work in progress

ECMWF was starting to look at TC genesis in an attempt to forecast where and when storms
might begin to form. The Met Office also has some products in this area. The main problem offorecasting the evolution of the intensity of TCs remains. It was felt that not much progress
would be made with the current generation of models since the resolution is simply not goodenough.

6.7.

Product development needs for warnings of track and intensity

The poor performance of current models in forecasting intensity was again noted. However,some wind products could be considered. There was a need to use gridded 2D fields but it
might be possible to extend CXML to include some useful information on the wind field. There
was a need to establish from “end” users the sort of information that might be useful. For
example, the radial distance for gales might be helpful (size may be more predictable thanintensity), as would some information on the spatial structures of the wind and precipitation
fields..

6.8.

Statistical post-processing for improved TC predictions

It was noted that statistical post-processing could be in principle used to correct biases inintensity forecasts. However, the lack of good observational data over the oceans would be aCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 14
major hindrance. It was noted that forecasters have pressure on them to provide TC threat
forecasts, so we should consider what could be done to address intensity forecasts. Zoltan Tothsuggested inviting someone from HFIP to the next meeting.

Action 9.6.3: Co‐chairs to consider inviting an expert from HFIP to next WG meeting.
Action 9.6.4: TIGGE‐LAM panel is encouraged to assess skill of TC intensity forecasts in high‐resolution models.
6.9.

Enhancements to CXML content and data exchange

It was suggested that extra information should be added to CXML messages were possible andthat this might include the size of the area of gales, better definition of landfall and centralpressure. Maximum wind could also be considered and would be useful for research purposes.

Action 9.6.5: All data providers are invited to add central pressure information and max windinformation to CXML, using conventions to be agreed, based on current practices.
6.10. Verification
The verification of TC products was seen as a very important but difficult task. More effort wasneeded and the WG members were encouraged to become more active in this area. The JVWG
is tasked with putting together a document on this subject. There should be a draft available by
the end of the year. There is a pressing need for verification of ensemble TC forecasts. ECMWF
was doing some work on this issue.
It might be useful to add the actual TC track to CXML files. All tracks are stored in the National
Data Centre N. Carolina and are readily available for assessment purposes.
It might be useful to look at the probability of a particular storm being in a specific Category – if
this did not look reasonable there would be no point in going further.

Action 9.6.6: All data providers are encouraged to carry out TC forecast verification
6.11. Interfacing with the user community
This topic was considered together with Item 7.11.

7.

Heavy Precipitation

7.1.

SWFDP regional subprojects in S. Africa and SW Pacific

These aspects were covered in previous sections.

7.2.

La Plata Basin project and links to GEWEX efforts

This project links to GEWEX hydrological activities. It fits well with the SWFDP concept but also
contains a strong research element. The La Plata basin is a very important area and home tomore than 200 million people. It contains several large rivers and is affected by fronts,
mesoscale systems, etc. It has similarities to the central USA and is in a convergence zone
between moist tropical air and polar air masses. This can create the conditions for explosive
development of convective systems. There are also important variations on longer time scales.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 15
It was suggested that a “GIFS-TIGGE FDP” would be appropriate and provide a suitable test
bed for model development and performance assessment. It would promote evaluation of
TIGGE products in a key region of S. America, help capacity building, focus on heavy rain, andalign with the CHUVA field experiment. The impact of extra data on forecasts quality would also
be considered. The early detection (out to 5 days ahead) of the possibility of extreme eventswould be a high priority. Similarly building closer links with the “end users” would be important.
In discussion it was noted that, at the last meeting it was agreed that the WG would engage withother RDPs and FDPs, rather than run a specific GIFS-TIGGE FDP. There are well defined
criteria which a project must meet for it to be considered a WWRP RDP or FDP. The
appropriate forms can be downloaded from the WMO website. Since this project contains a
number of elements outside the meteorological area it would be better to define a sub-project
devoted to the weather aspects and apply for RDP or FDP status for that element alone.

Action 9.7.1: Co‐chairs to invite Celeste Saulo to submit a formal application for a WWRP
FDP/RDP based on weather elements of La Plata Basin project, in order to formalize links
with GIFS‐TIGGE.
7.3.

HEPEX

This was seen as an “umbrella” for a number of hydrological projects. There was little
information available on the current status of HEPEX; the information on the project website
was quite old. There has been little progress on THORPEX / HEPEX joint activities (THEPS). A
number of issues remain such as understanding the data requirements for hydrological EPSs
and the importance of feedback from the hydrological to the meteorological community on thisand other matters. There was also a need to look at downscaling and whether grid point orcatchment area approaches would be appropriate.
David Richardson volunteered to follow this up with a colleague at ECMWF to assess thecurrent status of the HEPEX project and hydrological applications of EPS, to help ascertain thebest way forward.

Action 9.7.2: David Richardson to provide a report regarding application of EPS to hydrology.
7.4.

HYMEX

An overview of this long term (10 year) and ambitious project focused on the hydometeorological cycle was provided by Philippe Arbogast. Various Enhanced and Special
Operational Periods were planned. The impact of adaptive observations would be assessed. An
important meteorological focus would be on mesoscale convective systems and looking atconvective scale predictability. High –resolution ensemble meteorological modelling would be
used and the added value of convection permitting system assessed (two real time LAM EPSs
would be available – COSMO LEPS and the AROME EPS). Verification was an integral part ofthe programme.

7.5.

Prototype Heavy rainfall products

Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC) gave an overview of the website he had recently developed whichdisplays risks of heavy rainfall predicted from ensembles. The site also includes forecasts forstrong wind and extreme temperature. It is automatically updated each day and includes
forecasts out to 15 days ahead. The calculation of occurrence probability was outlined;CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 16
probabilities are calculated by comparing forecasts with climatological PDFs calculated fromeach of the 4 TIGGE models being used (ECMWF, JMA NCEP and UKMO). Extreme events
warnings were typically based on 95 percentile of the climatological PDF.
Some examples were shown. The first was the probability of occurrence of extreme 24 rainfall
for Cyclone YASI (3 Feb 2011) for each centre. The consistency improved greatly withtimescales down to a few days ahead and correlated well with TRMM data (the probability that
TRMM daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile). Case 2 considered flash flooding in S.
Africa (June 2011) – in this case even the 6 day forecast showed a clear signal for the event.
Case 3 was heavy rainfall in Japan (July 2011) again the event was highly predictable even at
the 6 day range even though the area affected was quite small scale. Finally Case 4 looked at
the Pakistan flood of July 2010. This was also picked up in the 6 day forecast.
The WG was impressed by the work done and the JMA website is considered a majorachievement amongst developments to support the SWFDPs. In discussion it was noted that
more user orientated products needed to be developed and that verification was crucial. Also athreshold of 50% was used in the plots but the significance was not clear nor how appropriate
this value was. Also there was no information on how often “false alarms” were generated.
Verification was required and it was thought that the Verification WG could help with this. The
work was highly regarded and it agreed to encourage SWFDP participants to look at the
products and do basic assessments and provide some feedback. However, before that, good
documentation was needed to help users at the relevant RSMCs understand and use theproducts.

Action 9.7.3: Mio Matsueda to draft brief documentation , including health warnings, ofextreme weather products and work with co‐chairs to finalise by Feb 2012
Action 9.7.4: SWFDP RSMCs invited to evaluate prototype products on Mio Matsueda’s
website and report back to next GIFS‐TIGGE WG meeting, to assess requirements for nearreal‐time versions of the products.
7.6.

Product development needs

There was some further discussion of TIGGE products applied to hydrology. Also it wassuggested that once an extreme event is detected it might be possible to run some LAM-EPS
models “on demand” for the area at risk. This was regarded as impractical at the present time
but that it might be reasonable to explore organisational links that could make it possible at least
for some regions.
Zoltan Toth showed some examples of bias-corrected NAEFS products similar to those on the
Matsueda website. These included 2m temperature out to 120h ahead from a 60 member
ensemble. The 10%, 50% and 90% percentile areas were considered showing areas in which
the likelihood was for relatively warmer or colder conditions.

7.7.

Logistics of data exchange

There was then a general discussion on real time data exchange but it was recognised that the
SWFDPs would probably implement generation of real time multi-model EPS products fromoperational data feeds. Although these products would be based on TIGGE research, the
TIGGE data bases were not suitable for real-time data exchange. It was also recognised thatdata exchange should take place according to WIS directives. The importance of input fromforecasters for the development of new products for the SWFDP was again stressed.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 17

7.8.

Bias correction, multi-centre ensembles and down–scaling

This was regarded as a very important topic, but which requires more work. Masa Kyouda
presented some work related to storms and heavy rain, based on the JMA EPS output andusing other centres data for reference. Results were shown for typhoon Fitow – 3-day
accumulated rainfall reached 690mm and rivers were at danger level. Various scenarios had
been run looking at the worst cases. The impact was shown to depend strongly on the reliabilityof the TC track forecast.

7.9.

Observationally based fine resolution regional/global analyses

Some examples of precipitation analyses compiled by NCEP were shown. These wereobservationally based and included data from more than 100 weather radars and many
thousands of rain gauges. Significant efforts had been devoted to the combination of the typesof data. The analyses were in 5 by 5 km cells and are updated every 6 hours. . Verification ofan E. Coast snowstorm event was discussed. It was also recognised that similar high-resolution
analyses would also be valuable in Europe but, so far, progress has been limited.

7.10. Verification and evaluation
Laurie Wilson noted that verification was proceeding rather slowly and the situation was notsatisfactory. For the SWFDP, quarterly reports had been compiled but there has been little
evaluation of EPS data. For Southern Africa some progress us being made and the national
centres are doing the best job at the moment. The same situation seems to exist with the
TIGGE database –verification is mainly focused on upper air, with limited progress on surface
variables such as precipitation.
The GEOWOW project will provide time series which will help with site-specific verification, butthese will not be available for another year or so. Little substantive progress has been madesince the last report.

7.11. Training and interfacing with users.
It was recognised that the CBS ET on EPS matters conducts training and capacity building
activities in this area and it was agreed that training on new GIFS products should be integrated
with those activities. Our focus should be on training the trainers. It was re-iterated that good
documentation was needed to support the interpretation and use of novel products.

7.12. Products based on other gridded fields
Examples of products on wind and 2m temperature had been briefly covered in earlier agenda
items (7.5, 7.6).

8.

Longer term plans

8.1.

Review of TIGGE-GIFS research needs and priorities

Richard Swinbank presented some thoughts and ideas on this topic. There were several
research priorities that the WG presently considered. These included calibration andcombination methods, bias-correction, downscaling multi-model ensembles, re-forecasts andgeneration of reliable probabilistic products. However, other aspects should perhaps be added.
These might include: initial conditions – linking with ensemble DA and the DAOS WG;
representing model errors using stochastic physics – linking with the PDP WG and WGNE;
seamless forecasting – linking with the new sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project; andconvective scale ensembles – linking to TIGGE LAM and the MWFR. The first two were very

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 18
important for improving EPS skill. A virtuous circle can be considered EPSs >Evaluation/Diagnosis > Develop/improve > EPSs. The WG agreed to add a new topic on EPS
improvement to the agenda. It was also agreed that verification of ensemble forecasts should beconsidered. By analogy with other aspects mentioned, the WG needs to take an interest on
verification, while the JWGFVR takes a lead on verification research.

Action 9.8.1: Co‐chairs to create new agenda item on EPS improvement for next WG meeting.
Richard Swinbank then turned to how to take forward GIFS developments. A survey of WG
members showed that work on development of TC-related products was going on at 8 TIGGE
partner institutions. It was suggested that people working on those developments should form
the basis of the TC focus group. Similarly, all TIGGE partners have people working on
developing products based on precipitation and other gridded data. The initial priority should be
to improve communications between people working in those two areas, to exchange
information about the work being done. The meeting then sought nominations for the formationof the 2 focus discussed earlier. Members agreed to provide suitable nominations of individuals
for these groups in the next few months.

Action 9.8.2: KMA, NCEP, MO, MF, ECMWF, JMA, CMA, BOM to nominate people to form a TC
focus group which will prepare a report on TC forecast product developments for next WG
meeting. Names to be sent to co‐chairs, by end Oct 2011. The WG seeks a volunteer to act as
focal point for this group.
Action 9.8.3: All data providers to nominate people to form a precipitation focus group which
will prepare a report on precipitation forecast product developments for next WG meeting.
Names to be sent to co‐chairs, by end Oct 2011. The WG seeks a volunteer to act as focal
point for this group.
8.2.

Longer term outlook for TIGGE and GIFS

It was necessary to retain the support of the 3 archive centres and the data providers. Thisseemed assured at least in the short term. However, for the longer term continuation of the
TIGGE archive, it was essential that the data was well used and that the products generated
were seen to be useful by users.
Increasing resolutions of models will put pressure on the archives as time goes on. Major
system changes may make the older data gradually less useful.
Beyond the end of the THORPEX programme there is a need to discuss and agree anappropriate “home” for this work.

9.

GEO

Jim Caughey introduced this topic and said that GIFS-TIGGE remained an important part of the
GEO Work Plan within the Weather Societal Benefit Area (SBA). A new GEO Plan for the period
2010- 2015 was being developed and this would introduce a revised Task structure with fewer
Tasks and streamlined management arrangements. It was expected that TIGGE would figure
prominently in the presentation to the GEO Plenary scheduled for November 2011.
The funding obtained through the GEOWOW project should be useful in moving TIGGE forward
and it was important to look for other funding opportunities within the GEO framework. GEO
would be engaging with a range Funding Agencies to highlight those areas of the Work PlanCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 19that still needed to be resourced. It was essential to make sure that visibility for GIFS-TIGGE
remained high.

10.

Membership

The WG expressed its appreciation to Zoltan Toth for the many years service he had
given as a Co-Chair. The appropriate representation from CPTEC, Brazil needed to beclarified. It was agreed that the revised membership list would be added as an Annex to
the report of the group to ICSC 9. This would include nomination of a new Co-Chair.
Action 9.10.1: Co–chairs to contact Pedro Silva Dias to request a nomination of a new
representative from CPTEC, before ICSC‐9 meeting.
11.

Any other business

Olivier Talagrand gave a short presentation on the Ensembles conference being
planned for Nov. 2012. The group endorsed the conference and agreed to give it full
support. WMO was asked to co-sponsor the event.
12.

Review of outcomes, actions and next meeting

The WG reviewed and finalised the list of actions. In addition to those noted in theseminutes, four permanent actions were agreed.
Zoltan Toth invited the WG to meet in Boulder in 2012 the exact date and venue to be
decided. The meeting was pleased to accept this invitation and looked forward to
finalising arrangements.
Richard Swinbank closed the meeting by thanking the THORPEX IPO and WWRP for
kindly hosting the meeting.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 20

Annex 1
Consolidated list of Actions
Permanent Actions
Action P.1: All archive centres to update statistics on TIGGE data users on an annual basis(end of each year), using similar statistics for users, actives users, etc. Doug Schuster tocoordinate.
Action P.2: Young‐youn Park and Mio Matsueda to carry out literature search for papers
based on TIGGE data, and summarise results. Archive centres to ask users to inform themwhen TIGGE papers are written, to enable the list of TIGGE publications to be kept up to date.
Action P.3: All data providers to provide model descriptions in agreed Excel format and to
update the files after significant changes and send to ECMWF.
Action P.4: Co‐chairs to request reports before each WG meeting on all actions, plus relevant
progress reports.
New & amended Actions
Action 9.2.1: Co‐chairs to establish contact with Thomas Jung (chair of polar project),
establishing collaboration with polar project
Action 9.2.2: Co‐chairs to establish links with new sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction project
especially David Anderson (consultant), and Frederic Vitart and Andrew Robertson (co‐chairs)
to maximise compatibility between the new project archive and the existing TIGGE archive.
Action 9.2.3: Co‐chairs to report on status of collaboration with SWFDP project at
WWRP/JSC5 meeting, Spring 2012.
Action 9.2.4: WG members to consider developing an article reviewing TIGGE research inrefereed literature, for discussion next WG meeting.
Action 9.3.1: All data providers are encouraged to provide T+0 data at 0 and 12 UT at least, 6
hourly if available, in consultation with archive centres.
Action 9.3.2: WG members to inform JMA by Nov 11 (ET‐EPS meeting) what they propose tosupply to WMO Lead Centre on EPS verification, and when.
Action 9.3.3: WG members to consider joining SNAP (Stratospheric Network on Assessmentof Predictability) project and contribute ensemble forecast output fields to the SNAP projectarchive.
Action 9.3.4: WG members to consider adding to training material on the TIGGE data portals,
including data access and manipulation examples, to help potential users of the TIGGE
archive.
Action 9.4.1: Tiziana Paccagnella to arrange for report on European TIGGE‐LAM
interoperability to be circulated for the benefit of related activities in other regions by Dec
11.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 21

Action 9.5.1: Co‐chairs to arrange representation at the SWFDP SG meeting in early 2012 anduse this meeting to establish links with RSMCs Pretoria, Wellington & Nairobi
Action 9.6.1: Tetsuo Nakazawa to request MRI to prepare questionnaire to obtain feedback
from users of websites, including suggestions for improvement
Action 9.6.2: WG members encouraged to contribute additional products to the MRI TC
website.
Action 9.6.3: Co‐chairs to consider inviting an expert from HFIP to next WG meeting.
Action 9.6.4: TIGGE‐LAM panel is encouraged to assess skill of TC intensity forecasts in high‐resolution models.
Action 9.6.5: All data providers are invited to add central pressure information and max windinformation to CXML, using conventions to be agreed, based on current practices.
Action 9.6.6: All data providers are encouraged to carry out TC forecast verification
Action 9.7.1: Co‐chairs to invite Celeste Saulo to submit a formal application for a WWRP
FDP/RDP based on weather elements of La Plata Basin project, in order to formalise links
with GIFS‐TIGGE.
Action 9.7.2: David Richardson to provide a report regarding application of EPS to hydrology.
Action 9.7.3: Mio Matsueda to draft brief documentation , including health warnings, ofextreme weather products and work with co‐chairs to finalise by Feb 2012
Action 9.7.4: SWFDP RSMCs invited to evaluate prototype products on Mio Matsueda’s
website and report back to next GIFS‐TIGGE WG meeting, to assess requirements for nearreal‐time versions of the products.
Action 9.8.1: Co‐chairs to create new agenda item on EPS improvement for next WG meeting.
Action 9.8.2: KMA, NCEP, MO, MF, ECMWF, JMA, CMA, BOM to nominate people to form a TC
focus group which will prepare a report on TC forecast product developments for next WG
meeting. Names to be sent to co‐chairs, by end Oct 2011. The WG seeks a volunteer to act as
focal point for this group.
Action 9.8.3: All data providers to nominate people to form a precipitation focus group which
will prepare a report on precipitation forecast product developments for next WG meeting.
Names to be sent to co‐chairs, by end Oct 2011. The WG seeks a volunteer to act as focal
point for this group.
Action 9.10.1: Co–chairs to contact Pedro Silva Dias to request a nomination of a new
representative from CPTEC, before ICSC‐9 meeting.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-9 Minutes p. 22

Annex 2
Participants
GIFS-TIGGE WORKING GROUP
Zoltan Toth (NOAA/ESRL; Co-chair)
Richard Swinbank (Met Office; Co-chair)David Richardson (ECMWF)
Gong Jiandong (CMA)
Mike Naughton (BoM)
Young-Youn Park (KMA)
Christopher Cunningham (CPTEC)
Osvaldo Moraes (CPTEC)
Laurie Wilson (EC)
Masayuki Kyouda (JMA)
Doug Schuster (NCAR)
Philippe Arbogast (Météo-France)
Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM)

INVITED EXPERTS
Bernard Strauss (Météo-France; chair SWFDP SG)
Steve Ready (NZ Met service; SWFDDP)
Olivier Talagrand (LMD; PDP Working Group)
Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC)WMO SECRETARIAT
Tetsuo Nakazawa
Jim CaugheyPeter Chen