Japan - October 2022

S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research

Japan Retail

Retail sales in Beijing were up 4.4% year-on-year to RMB539.8 billion in 1H 2018

Japan RetailMarket to see gradual improvement
Summary• In 1H/2022, average 1F rents inTokyo have again seen upticks.
The market has witnessed
gradual improvements overthe past half-year, althoughsubprime locations are generally
still lagging.
• A similar situation has been
observed in regional markets,with prime locations faring well.
• Transaction volumes in the firsthalf of 2022 were at a similarlevel as those in 2021, with somenotable deals having been
observed.
• Lifestyle changes inducedby the pandemic such as theproliferation of e-commerce andsome migration to suburban
areas are likely to influence thelocation of demand and thefunction of retail spaces going
forward.
• Newly completed and upcoming
large-scale developments tend
to be mixed-use, and have ESG
features, for diversified revenue
streams and elevated footfall.
• While the resumption of visafree travel will benefit theretail sector, recovery may
be moderate overall, anduncertainties hovering overthe global economy may lower
discretionary spending.

Chinese tourists are still largely unable to travel,
and also because global discretional spending
may shrink and stagnate overseas trips as a resultof the uncertainty present in the world economy.
Nevertheless, the retail landscape haschanged significantly with the pandemic, andnew consumer trends need to be understood.
For instance, the proliferation of e-commerce
was greatly expedited, and more retail space
may be transformed to function more asa showroom for retail goods, while actual
purchasing may shift online. Also, higher
levels of teleworking are likely to generate moredemand for retail spaces in suburban areas.

TOKYO SUBMARKET RENTS
According to the semi-annual survey by theJapan Real Estate Institute (JREI) and BAC
Urban Projects, average asking rents for 1F
units in Tokyo have increased 3.7% half-yearon-half-year (HoH) and 5.3% year-on-year(YoY). Non-1F rents experienced similar
increments, growing 3.7% HoH and 5.8% YoY.
Overall, each submarket has experienced
notable polarisation, with vacancies
remaining elevated in some non-prominent
areas, whereas prime areas appear to bemostly occupied.
While Japan has progressed to an endemic
state, recovery has depended on the sector
and area. The luxury sector has been strong,
supported by high levels of spending by
the wealthy. On the other hand, F&B andentertainment businesses, which often occupy
non-1F units and units outside prime shopping
streets, have suffered disproportionately,
leading to many vacancies in these categories
and areas. Nonetheless, units on upper floors
have seen demand from service providers
such as beauty clinics and coworking spaces,
which has contributed to stabilising the market
overall. In addition, strong players that havemanaged to adapt to these changing trends
have emerged even in the struggling F&B
sector, meaning that tenant selection appears
to have become more crucial than before as thegap widens between winners and losers.
Additionally, Japan has finally opened its
borders to inbound tourism, which has createdmore optimistic prospects for further overall
recovery in the retail sector, especially in
inbound-dependent areas and facilities. At thesame time, this recovery may be moderate as

Ginza
Ginza further extended its position as the mostexpensive retail submarket in Tokyo in the firsthalf of 2022. Average 1F asking rents in Ginzarose 5.5% HoH and 11.5% YoY to JPY79,200 per
tsubo, nearly reaching the pre-pandemic peakin 1H/2020. Despite having by far the highest
1F rents in the Tokyo market, its non-1F rents
in the submarket lag Omotesando at JPY33,400
per tsubo.
Ginza retains its reputation as Tokyo’s premier
shopping district, with many luxury brands
having their flagship stores in the area. There
are few vacancies on the Chuo-Dori andHarumi-Dori streets, and high-end brands
continue to concentrate in these prime areas.
For instance, Cartier has recently opened
its third branch in Ginza, in the Ginza Six
department centre. At the same time, somebrands are reportedly in talks to move to lessprominent spots such as 7 and 8-Chome. For
instance, in August 2022, Apple moved its
Ginza store from 3-Chome to 8-Chome.

GRAPH 1: Tokyo 1F Rents, 2008 to 1H/2022
Ginza 1F
Shinjuku 1F
Average asking rent: 1F

90

Omotesando 1F
Shibuya 1F

THOUSAND JPY / TSUBO

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
22
Source JREI, BAC Urban Projects, Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/2

Japan Retail

Despite the positive situation in prime
shopping streets, vacancies persist in theless prominent areas and in larger spaces.
Indeed, there are still many vacant units andthe sentiment is not bullish, especially forlarger units. However, the gradual influx ofoverseas visitors should raise footfall andthe weak yen will incentivise higher levelsof spending, boosting business confidence
and gradually easing the mismatch between
supply and demand.

The retail sector continues toexperience a gradual recovery,
although many subprime locations
still lag. Lifestyle changes induced by
the pandemic will likely influence thefunction and location of retail space
going forward. While the resumptionof visa-free travel will further
improve the sector, benefits may bemoderate due to uncertainties in the
global economy.

Omotesando
Average 1F and non-1F rents diverged in
Omotesando. 1F rents grew 7.4% HoH and11.5% YoY, reaching JPY55,300 per tsubo,
Meanwhile, non-1F rents dipped slightly by
0.6% HoH but grew 2.9% YoY to JPY35,900
per tsubo – the highest in Tokyo. Althoughvacancies in Omotesando are still highrelative to 2019, they fell slightly in the firsthalf of 2022.
Omotesando maintains its prestige among
high-end shoppers and continues to attract
many high-end fashion labels and luxury
brands, especially in the Aoyama and Jingumae
areas. The prospects of prime shopping
streets remain bright, with a number of newstore openings. That said, there is notable
polarisation in the submarket between primeand subprime locations. Although Harajuku isa famous hub of youth culture and alternative
fashion in Japan, poorly located units inthe area continue to suffer from the drop
in footfall. This is especially true for larger
units that are struggling to attract tenants
due to high asking rents. Indeed, the area still
continues to show weakness with the closingof the H&M store along Meiji-Dori.
While prospects vary across the submarket,
the reopening of borders to inbound tourists

will be a boon for Omotesando. TakeshitaDori, Cat Street, and the surrounding
shopping streets will certainly benefit fromthe gradual uptick in footfall following
the arrival of inbound tourists in Japan.
Furthermore, there are a number of new
retail redevelopment projects in the west sideof Omotesando area, such as on the corner of
Jingumae 6-Chome, set for completion in 2023,
which should also benefit the submarket.

rebounded by 11.0%, reaching historic highsof JPY33,300 per tsubo. While there are stilla larger numbers of vacancies compared to
pre-pandemic times, this figure has fallen
notably in the past half year, giving hope tothe submarket.
The rate of recovery varies depending on thearea. Footfall in Shinjuku still remains below
its pre-pandemic highs, slowing the recovery
of fashion-centred department stores suchas Lumine. On the other hand, prime areas,such as Shinjuku-Dori and Shinjuku 3-Chomeare seeing a revival in fortunes. For instance,
the up-market Isetan department store on
Shinjuku-Dori typifies the strength of thearea, with sales in July and August 2022
exceeding that of the same period in 2019.
Going forward, the resumption of visa-free
tourism will offer a lifeline for struggling
areas, such as Kabukicho, and will drive
further recovery in the Shinjuku-Dori,
Meiji-Dori, and Shinjuku 3-Chome areas,
which have the largest potential in thesubmarket. Furthermore, the redevelopmentof the Shinjuku station west exit area willcontribute to reshaping the flow of people
in Shinjuku and help stimulate consumer
demand in the western area of the submarket.

SHINJUKU
Average 1F rents in Shinjuku have continued
to rise, reaching JPY56,300 per tsubo, up
4.3% HoH and still the second highest 1F
rents in Tokyo. Meanwhile, non-1F rents

GRAPH 2: Tokyo Non-1F Rents, 2008 to 1H/2022
Ginza Non-1F
Shinjuku Non-1F
Average asking rent: Non-1F

45

Omotesando Non-1F
Shibuya Non-1F

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

0
2H

THOUSAND JPY / TSUBO

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
22
Source JREI, BAC Urban Projects, Savills Research & Consultancy

3

SHIBUYA
Average 1F asking rents in Shibuya are
generally on the lower end of Tokyo’s prime
retail submarkets, and contracted again in
the first half of 2022. 1F rents fell 3.9% HoH
and 13.3% YoY to JPY44,500 per tsubo and are
currently around pre-pandemic levels. On
the other hand, non-1F rents have continued
to increase, rising 0.6% HoH and 4.6% YoY to
JPY31,900 per tsubo.

Japan Retailfollowed similar patterns over the last halfyear. 2022 has seen the completion of somehighly anticipated developments, and prime
areas in particular will benefit from them.
On the other hand, the situation has beendifficult for units in non-prime locations,and vacancies have been high in theseareas. However, the resumption of visa-freetravel from October 2022 should graduallycontribute to improving the prospects ofdowntrodden areas and help to equalise
recovery going forward. The progress
toward pre-pandemic normalisation is also
likely to encourage previously hesitant older
people to go out.
In Osaka’s Shinsaibashi, average asking 1F
rents experienced a slight increment of 2.7%
HoH, reaching JPY38,000 per tsubo, while
non-1F rents have increased 4.2% HoH to
JPY17,400 per tsubo. That said, performancehas been mixed and there is still excessive
supply compared to demand, projecting
a less optimistic outlook. Midosuji has astrong reputation for luxury brands and hasvery few vacancies, with some new openings
also in the works. However, other areas arestill reeling from the absence of overseas
visitors – the Shinsaibashi-suji shopping
street saw the closure of the DisneyStore and Sanrio Gallery, both of which
previously drew large numbers of shoppers.
Meanwhile, Dotonbori and American
Village are performing poorly given theirconcentration of F&B and entertainment
establishments. On a more positive note,vacancies have gradually fallen over recent
quarters, and the upcoming influx of inboundtourists will undoubtedly provide some relief
to Shinsaibashi’s retail situation.

Shibuya is characterised by significant
polarisation in terms of retail performance.
Namely, strong leasing activity can be seen
in locations close to Shibuya station along
Inokashira-Dori and Center-Gai, which
typically attract large levels of footfall andhave seen some new openings in 2022.
Meanwhile, less prominent areas, and larger
properties have a disproportionate numberof vacancies and are doing more poorly.
Furthermore, flagship stores such as Bershka
along Inokashira-Dori have closed, leaving apoorer impression on the area that has also
seen other notable closures in the vicinity.
Nonetheless, Shibuya has several ongoinglarge-scale developments on Dogenzaka,
Miyamasuzaka, and to the south of Shibuya
station, on top of the rebuilding of many
prominent department stores like Marui,
Tokyu, and Seibu. These redevelopment
projects are likely to further revitalise prime
areas. The areas close to Shibuya station are
still of great interest, and the sites where HotelKoe and Beauty & Youth used to be locatedhave reportedly gained high levels of attention.
With the number of inbound tourists set toincrease from October, Shibuya should see a
gradual uptick in footfall. This will certainly
improve the submarket’s fundamentals,
which will also provide relief for struggling
restaurants and entertainment businesses inless popular areas.
REGIONAL CITIES
Average 1F asking rents plateaued at
JPY26,220 per tsubo – rents were flat
HoH and there was a 5.6% YoY increment.
Meanwhile, non-1F asking rents edged up
by 1.7% HoH and 4.4% YoY to an averageof JPY15,580 per tsubo. Most markets have

GRAPH 3: 1F Rents in Retail Districts of Regional Cities, 2014 to 1H/2022
Shinsaibashi 1F
Fukuoka Tenjin 1F
Sapporo 1F

40

Nagoya Sakae 1F
Sendai 1F
Average asking rent 1F

THOUSAND JPY / TSUBO

35
30
25
20
15
10
5

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

2H

1H

0
2022

Source JREI, BAC Urban Projects, Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

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Nagoya’s Sakae receives relatively low levels
of inbound tourism and changes induced by the
pandemic were modest, with rents remaining
relatively stable. In this half-year, average 1F
asking rents increased by 2.6% to JPY23,900
per tsubo. However, some landlords in Sakae’sprime retail areas have often been reluctant
to lower rents, meaning that some properties
have been unable to find tenants for over a year.
Vacancy levels have persisted and elevated sincelate 2021. The north area of Sakae is set for more
redevelopment with the completion of Rayard
Hisaya-odori Park and BINO Sakae, which will
likely see some shift in footfall going forward.
Following a contraction last year, average
1F rents in Fukuoka’s Tenjin rebounded in
1H/2022, rising 3.1% to JPY23,500 per tsubo.
However, non-1F asking rents continued to
decline, contracting by 0.6% to JPY16,500 per
tsubo. There is a significant concentration ofretail activity to the south of Tenjin station,although much of the area initially suffered at
the onset of the pandemic. There have been
an elevated number of vacancies since early
2020, and despite dropping in 2021, it increased
significantly in 2022. A large proportion
occurred in the Daimyo area, which is home
to several fashion and apparel brands thathave not experienced significant recovery. By
contrast, the Nishi-Dori prime district has seen
many new developments and refurbishmentsthat command strong rent levels, underpinnedby high leasing demand.
Sendai is another submarket that has
seen growing polarisation in terms of retail
performance, between the Sendai station
west exit district and the L-shaped shopping
district stretching from Hapina Nakakecho to
Mitsukoshi. Average 1F asking rents increased
5.1% in the first half of 2022, while non-1F rents
grew by 1.4%. Vacancies have still been high in
2022 and show little sign of improving. Indeed,
the L-shaped shopping district to the southof Mitsukoshi has a large concentration ofrestaurants and has seen a disproportionate
number of closures. Footfall has declinedin the outer shopping district in the face ofcompetition from the Sendai station west exit
district. Looking forward, Yodobashi building
is set for completion in November 2023, andwill become the home of Yodobashi Camera,
as well as various restaurants and clothes
shops. This will likely further heighten the
disparity between the two districts going
forward, given the difference in convenienceand proximity from the station.
In contrast with other markets, Sapporo
saw a significant decline in 1F asking rents
by 17.9% to JPY17,000 per tsubo. Sapporo isexperiencing vacancy trends which are unseen
in other regional cities, with the current
number of listings nearly four times that of the
pre-pandemic level. These vacancies are largely
concentrated in the Susukino entertainmentJapan Retail

district. A major demographic for businesses in
Susukino was inbound tourists, the absence ofwhom has forced many F&B and entertainment
establishments to close, especially thosesituated in non-1F units. However, with the
opening of Japan’s borders coinciding with theupcoming winter ski season, Hokkaido will
attract many overseas visitors, improving theprospects for the retail segment in Susukino.
Many new developments are in the pipelinein anticipation of the Sapporo Shinkansen
extension, due for completion in 2030. There
will be extensive redevelopment in the vicinityof Sapporo station, which will increase footfall
and the interest shown towards the wider
station and Odori areas. The mixed-use
building HULIC SQUARE SAPPORO initiallyopened in 2022 and will be ready for its grandopening in 2025. This optimism extends to
Susukino, which will see the former Susukino
Lafier building redeveloped as a mixed-use
hotel and cinema complex in autumn 2023.
This should help to rejuvenate the area by
diversifying its entertainment offerings andattract more visitors.
INVESTMENT TRENDS
The latest results of the April 2022 semiannual survey conducted by JREI indicatethat there were a few changes over the last
half year in terms of expected cap rates forretail property. Cap rates in Tokyo’s premier
shopping district Ginza remained flat at
3.5%, while there was some tightening in
Nagoya and Fukuoka, both by 10 basis points(bps) to 4.8%. Meanwhile, expected cap

GRAPH 4: Retail Property Investment by Region, 2009 to Q3/2022*
Tokyo
Osaka
Kanto (Ex-Tokyo/Yokohama)
Other

1,400

Yokohama
FukuokaKansai (Ex-Osaka)
Of which Tokyo (%) (RHS)

80%
70%

1,200

60%

JPY BILLION

1,000

50%

800

40%
600

30%

400

20%

200

10%

0

0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(Q3
YTD)
(Q3

Source RCA, Savills Research & Consultancy* Q3/2022 volume is preliminary and is likely to be revised upwards. In principle, RCA investment volumes do
not include related-party transactions, such as those between a J-REIT and its sponsor.

TABLE 1: Selected Retail Transactions, announced Q2/2022 to Q3/2022

ANNOUNCEDPROPERTY

LOCATION

GFA(SQ M)

PRICE(JPY BIL)

DIRECT
CAP
RATE

BUYER

Sep 2022

Futako Tamagawa
Rise (partial interest)

Setagaya,Tokyo

141,000

20.2

3.8%

Tokyu REIT

Jun 2022

Leaf Minatomirai

Nishi,
Yokohama

46,000--

Lendlease,
PGGM

Aug 2022

Abeno Nini

Abeno,
Osaka

25,0009.5

3.9%Star Asia REIT

Jul 2022

AEON MALL
Sapporo Naebo

Sapporo,Hokkaido

67,000

9.3

6.2%

Aeon
Hokkaido

Aug 2022

Kaden Sumairu Kan
x YAMADA web.com
Nara Honten

Nara

9,800

4.9

5.2%

Takara Leben
REIT

Source Press releases, RCA, Savills Research & Consultancy

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rates for suburban retail properties in mostcities tightened by 10bps, including Tokyo,
Osaka, Nagoya, Sendai, and Sapporo. The
market generally appears to have seen more
confidence as the pandemic winds down
and footfall recovers. It should be noted that
actual market cap rates could be as much as
100bps lower than these surveyed cap rates,
and remain stable.
In 2022, Japan has steadily transitioned
toward an endemic state, with increased footfall
especially in prime areas. The resumption ofvisa-free tourism is also another encouraging
sign for the market, especially in places thatcater to inbound tourism. Some investors
were prescient to this heightened optimism,
with a few large-scale transactions observed
over the past half-year. For instance, Tokyu
REIT purchased a portion of the mixeduse retail complex Futako Tamagawa Risein Setagaya, Tokyo, for JPY20.2 billion.
Meanwhile, two overseas investors purchased
Leaf Minatomirai, a large retail facility in
Yokohama with a GFA of 46,000 sq m.
According to preliminary data from Real
Capital Analytics (RCA), the level of retailtransaction activity in year-to-date Q3/2022
has been slow. with transactional volumes ofaround JPY385 billion in 2022, a 22% decline
from the same period in 2021. However, thisfigure will likely increase as more deals areannounced. Indeed, we should anticipate
more transaction activity towards the endof the year as footfall gradually rebounds
and the retail situation improves. With yieldspreads compressed in sectors that werehighly popular during the pandemic such as
logistics and residential, the retail sector thatis on a growth trajectory is likely to garnermore attention.
UPCOMING RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS
Despite some delays caused by the
pandemic, several new developments haveopened in 2022, and more are scheduled forcompletion in the coming years. Many of thesedevelopments in the pipeline are large-scale,and are expected to transform their respective
districts and serve as a cornerstone for humantraffic. A common trend is that many ofthese major retail establishments are being
redeveloped into large mixed-use projects withan ESG focus, to make themselves integrated
into the community.
These developments have become pivotal
in generating high levels of footfall in theirrespective areas. Some examples include thepartially completed Tokyo Yaesu Midtown,
which has also begun to revitalise the eastside of Tokyo station. In 2023, the massive
Toranomon Azabudai project is expected totransform its vicinity due to the sheer scaleof the development. While primarily an officecomplex, the surrounding retail space should

Japan Retailalso benefit from the newly created prestige andprominence of the establishment, whose footfall
will be diversified due to the multiple usages of thedevelopment.
Further down the road, one area in Tokyo thatwill see notable transformation is Shibuya station,with the rebuilding of the Tokyu Department store
in the Shibuya Upper West Project in 2027. The
former site will be transformed into a 117,000 sq
m high-rise mixed-use development, featuringhigh-grade for-rent residences, and a luxury hotel
on top of retail space. With these developments
likely to attract a myriad of human traffic, retailbusinesses will benefit from the diverse footfall.
On top of maintaining high environmental
sustainability standards, this development also
has a large green urban roof space to facilitate
better social activities, and appeal to more ESGconscious crowds.
Shinjuku’s redevelopment of the Odakyu
department store will undergo similar changes.
The joint JPY200 billion redevelopment project tothe west of Shinjuku station with Tokyu Land andTokyo Metro, due for completion in 2029, will yield
282,000 sq m of mixed-use space over 53 floors,
mainly high quality offices, and many lower floors
will be dedicated to retail space. The development
has also emphasised its dedication to renewableenergy, and usage of green roofs to provide a
cooling effect in the area.
The trend of redeveloping retail buildings intolarge-scale mixed-use projects is not limited toTokyo. Plans to redevelop the Mitsukoshi department
store in Nagoya’s Sakae into a 34-storey luxury
hotel and retail mixed-use complex by 2029 havealso gained attention. ESG has also become anincreasingly important focus, as seen in LaLaPort
Fukuoka, which was completed in April 2022,
and integrates ESG principles through its energy
efficiency and generation initiatives, whileembedding itself into the local community by
hosting community and school events in its mixeduse space and providing several public parks.
Overall, upcoming major retail developmentsin the pipeline tend to be large scale mixed-use
projects. Indeed, the intrinsic diversification ofrevenue streams that mixed-use developments
provide has become attractive, especially after
experiencing the pandemic. The size and varietyof these establishments are also strong enough toattract significant footfall to their vicinities. Goingforward, large, integrated complexes with a strong
environmental and social slant are more likely to
become the new norm for major developments.
OUTLOOK
Japan has largely recovered from the pandemic.
Most submarkets have seen an increase in footfall
and lower levels of vacancy, and both luxury andnon-luxury brands are more optimistic about retailconditions. Consequently, major retail areas haveseen several new openings, with more to comein the pipeline. Indeed, Forever 21 and American
Eagle have plans for several physical locations inJapan, reversing their decision to exit Japan in 2019.
Going forward, a number of developments
across Japan are expected to change respective
retail landscapes and gravitate footfall toward
these areas. Most notably, Yaesu and Toranomon
Azabudai will be transformed in the near futurewith their major developments. Further down
the road, Shibuya and Shinjuku will see suchdevelopments around the main station areas,
which could spark change to these submarkets
and enhance their image and branding. ESG
features will also be another important aspect forthese projects to better integrate themselves into
the community. As such, investors will need to beaware of the impact that these developments will
have on respective submarkets.
Despite the gradual recovery in footfall incentral areas experienced in 2022, overall lifestylechanges might change the course of recovery.
The Tokyo 23 wards (23W) has experienced a net
outflow of people since the onset of the pandemic,
meaning that some retail spending has shifted tosuburban areas. E-commerce has also changed
shopping trends, and may change the functionthat retail units serve. Some players, even in the
struggling F&B sector, have adapted to the newlifestyle changes of consumers and have thus
improved their profitability. Hence, tenant andsite selections appear increasingly important as
the gap between strong and weak retailers widens.
With inflation, albeit modest in Japan, average
households with modest wage growth would be
expected to tighten their budgets, especially withthe prevailing uncertainty of the world economy.
On the other hand, inbound tourists will boost
some retail spending by leveraging the weak yen,even without Chinese shoppers. Overall, theretail sector is likely to further improve and havestronger prospects. This is likely to attract theattention of more investors as the yield spreads inthe popular logistics and residential sectors appear
tight, and retail properties have greater room forvalue-add opportunities.

For more information about this report, please contact us
Savills Japan

Savills Research

Christian Mancini
CEO, Asia Pacific(Ex. Greater China)+81 3 6777 5150
cmancini@savills.co.jp

Tetsuya Kaneko
Managing Director, Head of
Research & Consultancy, Japan+81 3 6777 5192
tkaneko@savills.co.jp

Simon Smith
Regional Head of Research& Consultancy, Asia Pacific+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.com.hk

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