Монгол Улсын Их Сургууль , Нагоя Их Сургууль
Resilience хамтарсан судалгааны төвийн нээлтийн өмнөтгөл симпозиум -2

モンゴル国立大学・名古屋大学 レジリエンス共同研究センター プレオープンシンポジウム No.2

"Urbanization Control and Smart Growth Strategy towards
Urban Resilience, Sustainability and Happiness"「都市の靭性、持続性と幸福最大化のための都市化制御とスマートグロース戦略」
・Хугацаа: 2015 оны 5 дугаар сарын 15-ны өдөр, 11:00-13:00
日時：2015 年 5 月 15 日 11:00～13:00

・Газар: МУИС-ийн 1 дүгээр байр, 3 давхар, 320 тоот танхим
場所：モンゴル国立大学 1 号館 3 階, 講堂 320 号室・Ашиглах хэл: Англи, монгол хэл
使用言語：英語・モンゴル語

11:00～11:15 Нээлт (Opening Remarks)Сүхээгийн Баттулга (МУИС), (BATTULGA Sukhee NUM, Mongolia)
11:15～12:15 Үндсэн илтгэл (Special Lecture)Профессор Хаяаши Ёшицүгү (Нагоя Их сургууль), "Urbanization Control and Smart
Growth Strategy Towards Urban Resilience, Sustainability and Happiness"(Yoshitsugu HAYASHI, Professor, Nagoya University, Japan)
12:15～13:00 Хэлэлцүүлэг (Discussion)Зорилго: Resilience бол үндэстний соёл, уламжлалыг хөгжүүлэх замаар тогтвортой аюулгүйамар тайван нийгмийг бүтээн байгуулахад чухал ойлголт юм. Монгол, Япон зэрэг олон улс оронбайгалийн гамшиг, дэлхийн хүрээлэн буй орчин, хотын асуудлуудтай тулгарсаар байна. Иймээс
нийгмийн тогтолцоо - газар нутгийн зохион байгуулалтыг Resilience гэх ойлголтын үүднээс авчүзэх шаардлагатай байна. Энэ удаа Дэлхийн Зам Тээвэр судлалын Нийгэмлэгийн Ерөнхийлөгч,Нагоя Их сургуулийн профессор Хаяаши Ёшицүгү дэлхийн зам тээврийн асуудал эдийн засаг,хүрээлэн буй орчинд хэрхэн нөлөөлөх талаар Resilience ойлголтын үүднээс илтгэх болно.
(趣旨：レジリエンスは、民族固有の文化や伝統を生かし、持続的な安全・安心社会を構築する上で重要な概念である。モンゴルや日本をはじめ多くの国は、未解決の自然災害問題、地球環境および都市問題に直面し、レジリエンスの観点から今後の社会構造・国土構造のあり方を検討する必要がある。こうした観点からこのシンポジウムでは、世界の交通問題が経済や環境へ与える影響について、レジリエンスの立場から論じる。)
Холбоо: (問い合わせ先)
С.Баттулга S.バトトルガ（МУИС, モンゴル国立大学教授, sbattulga@gmail.com, 9901-9977),Сүзүки Ясүхиро 鈴木康弘（Нагоя Их сургууль, 名古屋大学教授、ysz@nagoya-u.jp）Энэхүү симпозиумыг GRENE (Япон, Нагоя ИС) судалгааны төслөөс санхүүжүүлэв.
（経費：GRENE 環境情報分野「環境情報技術を用いたレジリエントな国土のデザイン」（代表：名古屋大学環境学研究科教授 林良嗣）

Resilience or Sustainability ?

Urbanization Control andSmart Growth Strategy
towards Urban Resilience,
Sustainability and HappinessYoshitsugu Hayashi
Director, Education and Research Center for
Sustainable Co-Development, Nagoya University, Japan
President of WCTRS(World Conference on Transport Research Society)2

All housings and buildings swept in Sendai
by 3.11.2011 Tsunami (once in 1,000 years)

The Great East Japan Earthquake

1 1 Un1.1
Unresilient
resilient
Infrastructure - Land Use System
System

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Recognizing
the Great East Japan Earthquake
and Social Disasters

15 May 2015

3

15 May 2015

Requirements for
Resilient Cities andCommunity

as Natural

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Source: New York Times Homepage http://www.nytimes.com/

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi
45

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Source: New York Times Homepage http://www.nytimes.com/

6

Crash of buildings in Kesen-numa
caused by 3.11.2011 Tsunami

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi
7

A drifting boat blocked a street in Kesen-num
caused by 3.11.2011 Tsunami

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi

Resilience: QOL Transition after Earthquake

1.2 UnUnsustainable
sustainable Urbanization &Motorization nexus- Unresilient & Unsustainable City 3/14（被災3日後）

3/18（7日後）

3/31（20日後）

4/11（1ヶ月後）

5/11（2ヶ月後）

・QOL
QOL iindicesdihhave bbeen recoveredd fromf
Stage 4 Cultural life
inner areas, after roads and facilities wereStage 3Social life
re-openStage 2・Areas of QOL stage 2 are bigger thanStage 1flooding areas from tsunami
at2014
3/31
Mobil.TUM
Yoshi andHayashi, Nagoya Uni
9
4/11

School boy waiting for bus
at 4:30 am
in Suburb of Bangkok

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

10

Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok

Bangkok Post
4 Sept 1993
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Photo by Hayashi(1993)

Grid Lock in Bangkok
Neglecting Railways in Bangkok

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Photo by Hayashi (1994)

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi (1993)

15 May 2015

Bike Taxi in Bangkok

Air Pollution from
2 wheel vehicles

Average Income
Increment

Higher
Car--Ownership
Car

Modal Shiftto CarLack of Public
Transport
Tt
Economic
GrowthPhoto by Hayashi (1993)

Higher Costof Infrastructure
SupplyLack ofRoad

ECONOMY
Bottleneckfor
Development

Excess Car
DemandCongestion
CO,NOX,PM,,; CO2

Higher Energy
Consumption
Sprawl of
Built-up Area
Built-

Urbanization
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Car Ownership

Longer Trips

Nagoya
‘90
‘95

300

Bangkok

250

‘80
80

‘8
5

y
Tokyo

‘95

‘90 ‘95

200

‘00
‘80
‘90
‘02 Seoul
150 ‘70‘95 Singapore
Beijing
100 ‘60‘00 Shanghai
(CA)
‘95
50

‘85

Hong kong005,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

GDP per Capita US$ (1995)
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Length of roa
ad per car
lengthper p. car nger(mm/passengercar)(mof /roadpassen
car)

Cars per 1,0000 inhabitants

‘95

450

LondonLocal/Global
Problems

Car Ownership & Road Supply

500

350

ENVIRONMENT

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

10

400

Emission
Rate

1980
1970

Nagoya1980

8

London

Tokyo

6

1980

2000

2000
1990

4

2 1980

Bangkok
1985
1990

1995

2000

0
0

100

200

300

400

500

pas s enger
per 1000
peoplePassenger
carcarper
1000
persons

15 May2015 University
Yoshitsugu Hayashi,
NagoyaRoad Infrastructure Supply vs.
Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed

Road length per car(m/car)

1972

1972

k

1971
1988

1993

1986
1993

10

8

6

4

1972

16

16

14

14
1972

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0
00

2

Speed (min/km)

18

18

1972

Bangkok
1987

1988

1971

Tokyo
1993

1986

Motorization & Road Supply(*TOE/km)(‘000/12hr)(litre/km)
600(km/hr)
60
0.6
60
400
40
36
0.4
40
196

Shanghai

30

120

18.7

200

300

400

500

0.17

0.13

0.11

21.8

15.8
100

29
160

0.2
20

0.1
Energy consumption
Sectional volume
Consumption Rate
Speed

600

Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants)

10.0
Greater
London15 May 201554

20

LondonNagoya

1988
1993

627

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Tokyo

NagoyaBangkokMet. Nagoya University
Yoshitsugu Hayashi,

15 May 2015

Area

Change in Built-up Areas
Changes in BuiltBuilt-up Areas

Average Income
Increment

Higher
Car--Ownership
Car

Modal Shiftto CarLack of Public
Transport
Tt
Economic
GrowthHigher Costof Infrastructure
SupplyUrbanization
15 May 2015

Excess Car
DemandLack ofRoad

ECONOMY
Bottleneckfor
Development

y
Tokyo

g y
NagoyaCongestion
CO,NOX,PM,,; CO2

1910
1965

50 km

0

Emission
Higher Energy Rate
Consumption

Sprawl of
Built-up Area
Built-

Longer Trips

1985

ENVIRONMENT

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Local/Global
Problems

London15 May 2015

Bangkok

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Urbanization Stages

Population Density (1988)
Tokyo
max.

15,400

Nagoyag ymax. 1 7 , 1 0 0

15 May 2015

LondonBangkokmax. 1 1 , 5 0 0

max. 4 2 , 2 0 0

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University(1) Urbanization(2) Suburbanization(3) Disurbanization(4) Reurbanization

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

NMR 20 yr.

40

BMR 10 yr.

% change of pop. inn the ring-core30

LMR 80 yr.

TMR 15 yr.

20

2. What will happen the next?
- Unsustainable Future -100
LondonTokyo-10
Bangkok-20

NagoyaDe-surb.

Suburbanization-30

Suburb.

Suburb.

-40
1870
18802015
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
25
15 MayYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

3,000

Billion Vehhicles

2,500

2,000

18
1,500

1,000

1

500

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

26

Increasing Cars with Poor Infrastructurein Asian Developing Countries

IEA Vehicle Ownership Projections -Where Will These Cars Fit?
Fit?-3,500

15 May 2015

Other Africa
South Africa
Other LA
BrazilMiddle East
India
Other Asia
China
Eastern Europe
Asian TE
RussiaKorea
Japan
Australia and NZ
Other OECD Europe
UK
Italy
Germany
FranceUSA
MexicoCanada28• Skyrocketing Increase in Car Ownership (20times in 2050)• Less Power to Self-finance Railways• Increasing Mega-cities (50 or more in 2050)
without Railway Systems– Catastrophic Congestion like 90’s Bangkok• Unacceptable Increase in CO2 from Urban
Transport• Unlimited Urban Sprawl and Infrastructure
Maintenance Cost

01975 19801985 19901995 20002005 20102015 20202025 2030
2035 20402045 2050

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Air Pollution in Shijia Zhuong, China

Beijing and Huabei Plain: PM2.5 as anegative outcome of interinter-regional
regional
land-use transport interaction

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

29

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

30

Lorries transporting consumer goods back to Beijing
Moving emission source

Total cargo weightt(In billion tons)

Total transport weight anddistance (In billion tons and km)
m)‘11 China

Japan:China=1:4 China
Japan:
‘09

‘09

‘98

‘98
Japan

‘11

Japan

‘61

GDP (In
trilliondollars)

‘11
‘09

‘98
Japan
CO2 emission‘90
Japan ‘98 ‘09(In billion tons)‘03USA‘03 Japan:
Japan:China=1:1

‘09

‘09
‘11 China
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

31

China‘11
Total road transport weight anddYoshitsugu
University
distance(InHayashi,
billionNagoya
tons andkm)m)

15 May 2015

China: An Inconvenient Outcome of Investment in Industry
and Motorways• Drastically increasing air pollution PM2.5 andCO2 emissions• Relocation of industries from coastal richzones to inland zones• Induced heavyy traffic which is ironicallyy
assisted by rapid improvement of motorways• Inconvenient outcome of land use - transportinteractions• India: Industrial complex and freight transportinnovation by freight dedicated high speed
railways
15 May 2015

3. Strategies for Solution and the
Policy/TechnologicalygInstruments for
Resilient & Sustainable City

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

34

Strategy＜Japanese＞<English>
Instrumennts

TechnologyRegulation

Inform
ation

Avoid

Shift

Reduce traffic
demandReduce emissions
Reduce emissions
per unit transported per kilometer

Pedestrian Ort Dev’t
Bicycle Ort Dev’t

Improve

Integrated Public
Transport System

Transit Ort Dev’t

Highly Competitive
Railway

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Advanced Infra- Tech
Logistic Efficiency

TDM

Bus/Tram Priorities

Emission Standard

Parking Regulation

Non-MTTop Runner Program

Compact/Mix Land Use

Smarter Modal
Evolution

Eco-Drive

ICT

Awareness
Campaign

Telework
Smart Choices for
Workplace and Schools

Econo
mic

LEV, EV
Alternative Energy

Knowledgebase
ITS
Labeling of Vehicle
Performance

Fuel Tax

Fuel Tax

Fuel TaxRoad Pricing

Road Pricing

LEV Preferential Tax

Car Charge / Fee

Car Charge / Fee

Location Subsidy
15 May 2015
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

36

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Strategy

Avoid

Instrument

Reduceneed totravelReduce car
useTechnology

TOD

Pedestrianfriendly urban
designRegulation

Compactcity
Mix landuse

Information

EconomyTelework
ing

Shift

Improve

Improvealternativemodes

Improve road
network

Improvevehiclesand fuels

IMTS

LEV
Alternative fuel

TDM

Emissionstandard
Top runnerprogram

Rail/bus
infrastructure

Accesspermits

Bus/trampriorities

List of the Specified
21 Appliances

Top Runner Program with vehicles
Fuel Efficiency(km/L)
targetvalue

19km/L
18km/L
18k /L
17km/L1615km/L

15km/L

Passenger Vehicles
Freight Vehicles
Air Conditioners
Electric Refrigerators
Electric Freezers
Electric Rice Cookers
Microwave Ovens
Fluorescent Lights
Electric Toilet Seats
TV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)Video Cassette Recorders
DVD Recorders
Computers
Magnetic Disk Units
Copying Machines
Space Heaters
Gas Cooking Appliances
Gas Water Heaters
Oil Water Heaters
Vending Machines
Transformers

Weightedg valueaveragefor eachproduct
category

14km/L
13km/LCar sharing
Awareness
campaign

Bus location
system

Eco-drive
IT/ITS

Innovation: Japan
Location
Fuel tax
Greening
al Subsidy
Road Taxation
Rail/bus fare

IT / ITS

LEV
LEVsubsidy
subsidy
LEVRoad pricing
LEV
preferential
tax
preferential tax

pricing
15 May 2015

12km/L
at the time ofstandards
establishment

Target year

Yoshitsugu
15 MayHayashi,2015 Nagoya University

Yoshitsugu
Hayashi,NagoyaUniversity

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Strategy

Avoid

Instrument

Reduceneed totravelShift

Improve
MethanolNo. of vehicles

Technology

Regulation

Information

Economy

TOD

Reduce car
use
Pedestrianfriendly urban
designImprovealternativemodes

Improve road
network

Rail/bus
infrastructure

Compactcity
Mix landuse

AccessBus/tramInnovation:Japanpermitspriorities
Top Runner Program

Teleworking
Locational Subsidy

IMTS

TDM

Car sharing
Awareness
campaign

Bus location
system

Eco-drive
IT/ITS

Fuel taxRoad
pricing

Rail/bus fareRoad pricing

Improvevehiclesand fuels
LEV
Alternative fuelEmission
Emissionstandard
StandardTop
Top runner
Runnerprogram
ProgramFuel
economy[km/l]Top Runner
Program

Greening
taxation

Methanol‐fueled vehicle
LPG‐fueled vehicle
Natural gas vehicle
Hybrid vehicle
Electrical vehicle

Estimation

Observed
Sales base

Top Runner
ProgramLPG
NGVGreening
taxation

Ownership
base
Real running

IT / ITSHV

LEV subsidy
LEV
preferential tax
EVYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
15 May 2015

15 May 2015

Year

Effect of Subsidy for Low Emission Cars
Domestic sales of new cars
(Toyota, prius)

Subsidy
start

StrategyYear & Month

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Traffic Flow

Reduce car
useTechnology

TOD

Pedestrianfriendly urban
designRail/bus
infrastructure

Regulation

Compactcity
Mix landuse

Accesspermits

Information

Teleworking
Locational Subsidy

Emitting

Resource
Innovation: Seoul+
Improve
Improve roadvehiclesCritibamodelsnetwork
and fuels

Instrument

Economy15 May 2015

Transport Demand
Reduceneed totravelImprovealternative
modes

IMTS

LEV
Alternative fuelBus/tram
Bus/trampriorities
priorities

TDM

Emissionstandard
Top runnerprogram

Car sharing
Awareness
campaign

Bus location
system

Eco-drive
IT/ITSE-system

Fuel taxRoad
pricing

Rail/bus fareRoad pricing

LEV subsidy
LEV
preferential tax

15 May 2015
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

IT / ITSGrowing City equipped with Land Use Control→Integrated Package for Guided Development
High-rise Development near Stations
Center: Bus&Pedestrian Priority Zone
Value CaptureBRT（3-vechicles connected）
Bus Hierarchical Network

BeforeTube Bus Stop

After

５本の開発
軸

Source: GyengChul Kim■ Expansion Plan (13 lines/192㎞)

15 May 201543

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University※ Status of Existing Bus Lanes(2005)▷Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84㎞▷Curbside
bus lanes: 293.6㎞ Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
15 May 2015

Source: GyengChul Kim

Increase - Network Capacity  new Bus Route +BRT
- Bus ridership- Bus Frequency( Keep Interval )Decrease – Total Bus Operation Cost
 Increase - Bus Company Revenue Decrease – Subsidy of SMG Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
15 May 2015

Source: GyengChul Kim

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Strategy

Transport Demand

Emitting
Resource

Improve road
network

Improvevehiclesand fuels

IMTS

LEV
Alternative fuel

TDM

Emissionstandard
Top runnerprogram

Instrument

Technology

TOD

Regulation

Compactcity
Mix landuse

Accesspermits

Bus/trampriorities

Information

Teleworking

Car sharing
Awareness
campaign

Bus location
system

Eco-drive

IT / ITS

Fuel taxRoad
pricing

Rail/bus fareRoad pricing

LEV
preferential tax

EconomyLocational Subsidy

15 May 2015

Reduce car
use

Improvealternativemodes

Traffic Flow

Reduceneed totravelPedestrian
Rail/bus
Rail/bus
friendly urban infrastructure
infrastructure
designInnovation:
IT/ITS
Bangkok Sky LEV
Train
subsidy
Photo by Hayashi

1st Leapfrog
p gChange in Modal Share

Park & Ride at Sky Train
Mon Chit Station in Bangkok• Modal share in 1989

• Modal share in 2005
Rail
4%

Walk
16%

Car
43%

Bus
38%
Car
56%

Bus
41%

Source: JICA
report15 May 2015

1st Leapfrog
g

Walk
2%

Source: ADB
reportYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

50

SHIFT
SHIFT

Mass--transit Network of Future
Mass
Bangkok

The Effects of Integrated Transport Systems
on Traffic Congestion and CO2 Mitigation
Mitigation::“Sustainable Mobility”
legend!

Industry
MRT

car
rail
Present

bus

truck

2010 84.8km

15.2km/h

Inner-ringOuter-ringg

Without MRT

12 7km/h
12.7
k /h

CO2：+10.7% Speed：-16.3%

Without Inner Expressways
14.0km/hplanning：2016 236km
2019 391km
2029 509km （12lines）

CO2：+1.1% Speed：-

8.0%
Without Outer-ringRoads
8.9km/h
CO2：+0.8% Speed：41.7%
025
15 May 2015

Master Plan Study to improve railmass transit system in Bangkok andits vicinity（2010）

50

51
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya
University
Emissions(Mt-CO₂/year)

CO₂

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University【Goal】

Higher ＱＯＬ

EconomyA. Economic
Opportunity

4. Smart Growth for
Resilient & Sustainable City
with Higher QOL

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

B. Living &CulturalOpportunity

C. Amenity

Housing
District
L dLandscapeAccessibility to ureNature of
Agglomeration
Health/Medical Region
Identity ofof
Care
RegionIndustries/Popul Shopping/ServComfortability
ation
ice
/ Punctuality ofAmusement/Tr travel
Time foravel
leisure/culturallife
53

Education/CultEducation/Cult

15 May 2015

【Endogenous Conditions】＜Domestic＞＜Int’l＞
Low birth rate
Growth of Asia
Aging
Globalization
IT
IT

EcologyOpportunity for Service
Income52

D. Safety& Security・

E. Burden on
Environment

Risk of
Natural disasterRisk
Ri k off
Building /Facility disasterRisk ofChemical
Pollution
Risk of Traffic
Accident
Resource
Preservation
Criminal Rate

Burden from
Industry
BurdenB d ffrom
Domestic
Burden fromTransport
Heat Island
NoiseYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

54

Indicator of Sustainable Mobility in Commuting
QOL for an individual live in a certain
residential area

(Mobility / CO2)
Train

Bus

Car

Legen
d

Legen
凡例

凡例
TargetTt area_4-order
4 dmesh
対象地域_4次メッシュ
Cell435/Number
ｾﾙ433/ 通勤者数 ofcommuters
0.00 - 0.0194

T
t area_4-order
4 ddTarget対象地域_4次メッシュ
mesh
ｾﾙ435
/ 通勤者数 of
Cell435/Number
0.00 - 0.0120
commuters

0.0195 - 0.0401

0.0121 - 0.0276

0.0402 - 0.0621

0.0277 - 0.0441

0.0622 - 0.0906

0.0442 - 0.0643

0.0907 - 0.133

0.0644 - 0.0889

0.134 - 0.198

0.0890 - 0.119

0.199 - 0.293

0.120 - 0.153

0.294 - 0.451

0.154 - 0.193

0.452 - 0.714

0.194 - 0.252

0.715 - 1.00

0.253 - 0.357

Legen
g
d

凡例
Target area_4-ordermesh
対象地域_4次メッシュ
Cell435/Number
ｾﾙ436/ 通勤者数 ofcommuters
0.00 - 0.169
0.170 - 0.274
0.275 - 0.351
0.352 - 0.418
0.419 - 0.479
0.480 - 0.535
0.536 - 0.592
0.593 - 0.661
0.662 - 0.781
0.782 - 1.00

 Each transport mode offers different Mobility in eachmesh.
 Non car users, such as elderly people, should be
56
15 May 2015
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
considered.
 C t t i S t i bl M bilit i ti R il b t

Distribution of OP for
Economic/Living
OP4 Shopping/Service OP
OP3 Med care OP

QOL（average of all citizens）
２０５０
OP

wOP

(Accessibility to hospitals) (Accessibility to commercial facilities)

LE
wLE[year/10years]-0.040 - -0.008-0.007 - 0.010

SS

0.011 - 0.039

wSS

0.039 - 0.059
0.059 - 0.077
0.077 - 0.095
0

Hospital visit[minutes]

0

2.5

5

10 km

Shopping[minutes]

0-7

0 - 158 - 1416 - 24

15 - 1725 - 31

18 - 25

32- 3726 - 39

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Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

57

Per person CO2 emissions in future
generations
２０５０
Population forecast by population
cohort（500m Mesh）

Traffic generation

Housing stock

CO2 from traffic

CO2 from Housing

・origin base

5

10 km

0.096 - 0.139

・High in inner city of Nagoya and satellite cities
influenced by transport accessibility
・Low in West and High in East
15 May 2015
influenced
by earthquake
and flood risk
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

58

Smart Growth/Shrink Design based on QOL target
QOL in future
generation

QOL/CO2Distinction of Apartment
or detached2.5

Per capita CO2
emissions

Setting of the QOL
target for the society

Evaluation
El ti off ecosufficiency to provide
Mobilityy[kg-CO2/person/year]•Consider the life cycle

672 - 2430
2440 - 2590
2600 - 2710

00

2720 - 2820

CO22830 - 2930

Future CO2
emissions• Nagoya city is low, the suburbs high• Significantly higher in the suburban district without
railways
59
15 May 2015
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University• Suburbs emit 1.5 times more CO2 in Nagoya city
2940 - 3110

0

2.5

5

10 km

3120 - 4870

Emission limit
improve Retreat improve

Identifying the area where residents should be retreated and concen
60
15 May 2015
Yoshitsugu Hayashi,
Nagoya University
and the area
where transportation
systemshould be improved.

Selection of Retreat Districts （QOL/CO2）• Selection of Retreat districts necessary for CO2 reduction
targets• retreat from low Eco-Sufficiency（QOL/
CO2 ） area
CO2reduction
Retreat district
target5％reduction
10％reduction
15％reduction
20％reduction

5. Strategies for Ulaanbaatar

Effects on QOL
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%

10%削減
10%c

80%

ut
20%削減
20%c

60%

ut

40%
20%
0

2.5

5

10 km

0%
AC

AM

SS

QOL

※Display in the improvement rate that specify 1 for the current state

15 May 2015
Hayashi, Nagoya
 Western
districts are Yoshitsugu
to be retreated. University

61

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Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

62

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

71

Recommendations for Ulaanbaatar• Integrated Land Use – Transport Plan
– Livable & Resilient + Sustainable– to maximize QOL/Cost, QOL/CO2• Zoning Regulation– Hazard Maps
– Avoid Disaster Risky Areas• Redesigning Economic Mechanism– Preferential Car Registration Tax– Differentiated Land Tax• Seamless Mass Rapid Transit System– Sky Train /Metro & LRT /BRT(Exclusive Lanes)– P&R in the edge of central area
– Smart Card system
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Thank you for your attention !
15 May 2015

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University72