Understanding solareruptions: an observational
perspective on space weather
Karel Schrijver
Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center

Solar-C; 2013/11/11; Takayama, Japan
Saturday, November 9, 2013

Space weather user objectives:• For space assets (energetic-particle impacts on S/C andastronauts) and for radio communications (including navigationand timing):• forecast with at least 24-h lead time when an eruption of
specified magnitude will go off, and what the associatedenergetic particles populations and shocks will be that
propagate earthward.

• For long ground-based conductors, including electric power
grids:• forecast with at least 24-h lead time what the magnetic

properties are of the field erupting into the heliospheretowards Earth-Sun L1 [because L1 is far too close].

Saturday, November 9, 2013

In solar-physics terms:• Objectives: 24h ahead of time,• forecast the timing and magnitude of flares and eruptive
events,• specify the field geometry of the erupting rope and of theoverlying field, and• predict pathways and population properties of energetic
particles.

• Needs: understanding of the injection, storage, and release ofenergy into active-region coronae, and their surrounding fields.

• Data: active-region details [Solar-C] and global-Sun field [e.g.,SDO, STEREO, SoHO, to drive coronal-heliospheric model].

Saturday, November 9, 2013

2010/08/01

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Destabilizing B

Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Need to understand:* energy released in flares (down to QS microflaring of 1024 ergs): O(0.5x total atmospheric losses).
* energy released in flares from C1 upward: 1% of total radiated energy.
* Why so little for larger events?
* Power laws link small and large. Are all events “similar” and thus to be understood together?

Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

How much?
When?
In what form?

Need to understand:energy partitioning over* spectral irradiance,* bulk kinetic (CME),* energetic particles(reconnection & shock)and geometry of the erupting
and overlying field and theirinteractions

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Destabilizing B
Flux/rope emergence

Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Modified shear

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

Modified ‘external’ field

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Tether cutting
Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

Breakout

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Tether cutting
Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

X-ray flare, eruption
Saturday, November 9, 2013

Breakout

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Tether cutting
Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Breakout

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

torus/kink instabilityplasma properties:
set rise speed, spatial limit

X-ray flare, eruption
Saturday, November 9, 2013

SEP, CME

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Tether cutting
Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Breakout

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

torus/kink instability
plasma properties:
set rise speed, spatial limit

Saturday, November 9, 2013

SEP, CME“Small” scale“Large scale”“Weak” field

Fibril eruption / EUV
microflare

QS filament eruption,
EUV signature“Strong” field

X-ray flare, eruption**?

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Dynamo:flux emergence

Flux transport:
random walk, large-scale flows

Eruption elsewhere:“sympathy”

Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Modified ‘external’ field

Tether cutting
Energy buildup/storage
Energy conversion/release

Breakout

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

torus/kink instability
plasma properties:
set rise speed, spatial limitSaturday, November 9, 2013

SEP, CME“Small” scale“Large scale”“Weak” field

Fibril eruption / EUV
microflare

QS filament eruption,
EUV signature“Strong” field

X-ray flare, eruption**?

How much?
When?
In what form?

Destabilizing B
Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Modified ‘external’ fieldDestabilizing B
Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Modified ‘external’ fieldDestabilizing BContinuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Large f.o.v. X/EUV context
Flux/rope emergence

Modified shear

Field configuration reaches
non-equilibrium state

Assimilation-driven model field

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Modified ‘external’ fieldDestabilizing B
Continuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere
Chromosphere/corona
Large f.o.v. X/EUV context

Assimilation-driven model field

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Destabilizing B
Continuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere
Chromosphere/corona
Large f.o.v. X/EUV context⎫⎬⎭Need lots of telemetry from

Solar-Cwith context observations by

SDO/STEREO
supported by assimilative

Assimilation-driven model field

Saturday, November 9, 2013

models (NLFFF,magnetofrictional,MHD)

Destabilizing B
Continuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere
Chromosphere/corona⎫⎬⎭

Large f.o.v. X/EUV context

Need lots of telemetry from

Solar-Cwith context observations by

SDO/STEREO
supported by assimilative

Assimilation-driven model field

Needs: matching resolutions on ARs;
coordinated multi-instrument observing
within Solar-C and with otherobservatories; LARGE TELEMETRY
VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF➫MHD] advances.
Saturday, November 9, 2013

models (NLFFF,magnetofrictional,MHD)

2011/02/15 01:40 UT
Method: Malanushenko et al. (2012, ApJ 756, 152).

Potential field

Traced loops

Best-fit QGR-NLFFF
l.o.s integrated current density

α>0Saturday, November 9, 2013α<02011/02/15 02:25 UT
Method: Malanushenko et al. (2012, ApJ 756, 152).

Potential field

Traced loops

Best-fit QGR-NLFFF
l.o.s integrated current density

α>0Saturday, November 9, 2013

α<0Destabilizing B
Continuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere
Chromosphere/corona⎫⎬⎭Large f.o.v. X/EUV context

Need lots of telemetry fromSolar-C
with context observations bySDO/STEREO
supported by assimilative

Assimilation-driven model field

Needs: matching resolutions;coordinated multi-instrument observing
within Solar-C and with otherobservatories; LARGE TELEMETRY
VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF➫MHD] advances.
Saturday, November 9, 2013

models (NLFFF,magnetofrictional,MHD)

Forecasting space weather
Continuous, high-res. observing
Photosphere/chromosphere
Chromosphere/corona⎫⎬⎭

Large f.o.v. X/EUV context

Need lots of telemetry fromSolar-C
with context observations bySDO/STEREO
supported by assimilative

Assimilation-driven model field

Needs: matching resolutions;coordinated multi-instrument observing
within Solar-C and with otherobservatories; LARGE TELEMETRY
VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF➫MHD] advances.
Saturday, November 9, 2013

models (NLFFF,magnetofrictional,MHD)

Saturday, November 9, 2013