http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf

Japan: Clear Visions
Make It Possible
to Reduce of 70%
CO2 Emissions by 2050
1. If we cannot go to LCS,…
2. LCS offers higher QOL withless energy demand andlower-carbon energy supply
3. LCS needs good design,
early action, and innovations
Designed by Hajime Sakai

Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)

NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan“Low-Carbon Asia: To be or not to be”
How to Align Climate Change and Sustainable Development
COP13 and CMP3 Side Event, 8 December 200712
http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html

Research project on Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios development
FY2004-2008 sponsored by Ministry of the Environment, Japan3

As for LCS visions,
we prepared two different
but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon”

Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Nature-oriented

Urban/Individual

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthrough,Centralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient,
Produce locally, consume
locally

Individual Comfort andConvenience

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F.
Fujio. The series is about arobotic cat named Doraemon,
who travels back in time fromthe 22nd century. He has apocket, which connects to thefourth dimension and acts likea wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005
World Expo. Satsuki and Mei
are daughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived
an old house in rural Japan,
near which many curious andmagical creatures inhabited.

4age100

8060-79

80

40-59
20-39
0-19604020

100%

80%

Others60%

ParentChildren
One-Person

40%

Couple-Only

20%

0

CoupleChildren

year
Population (million)
Aged population ratio (%)
Average number of household
Single-person households (%)

2000
126.9
17.4
2.71
27.6

A
94.5
38.0
2.19
42.6

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2005

0%
2000

Population(Million)(Thousand)120

Type of household (%)

140

Projected Japan population andhouseholds in scenario A2050

B
100.3
35.8
2.38
35.1
5
http://2050.nies.go.jp

LCS house in 2050

Utilizing solar powerComfortable andenergy-saving house

Eco-life education

Photovoltaic

10-20% energy(25-47% houses with PV on roof (now 1%))demand reduction
34-69MWand develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

rooftopgardeningHigh efficiency
lighting

Solar heating【eg LED lighting】

Diffusion rate: 20-60%

Reduce 1/2
energy demand
Share 100%

（currently 8%）

Monitoring system

High-insulationequipped with appliances

Reduce 60% warming
energy demand,
share 100%

Super highefficiency air
conditioner
COP (coefficients ofperformance=8),
share 100%

Stand-by energy
reduction
Reduce 1/3 energy
demand,share 100%

Fuel cellHeat-pump heating

Good information foreconomy and environment
makes people’s behavior
low-carbon

share 0-20%

COP＝5share 30-70%

High efficiency appliances
reduce energy demand and6
support comfortable and safe lifestyleProjected energy efficiency improvement:
Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
9.0
MOE
COP (Coefficient of performance)

8.0
Historical

AIST

7.0
6.0

Best
METI

2050s
Target

METI

5.0
4.0

Average

3.0
Worst
2.0
1.0

Top-runner approach

0.071995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Residential sectorEnergy demand reduction potential: 50%
7060
Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

3434

9 Insulation system105040233017

Energy Efficiency

Change of the numberof households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of energy
demand per household
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption20

Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption
02000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in2000

Change in the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change in service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
8
Change in energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/TheMeetingPlace/Activities/Activities2007/0706AchievingSustainableLCS.aspx

How to reduce CO2 emissions frompassenger transportation sector
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK joint research project workshop (2007.6)

9

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2.50

Tokyo Met.

2.00

Nagoya Met.

Osaka Met.

Other Areas

1.50

Freight vehicles

1.00

Passenger cars

0.50
0.00
[t/year]
0
CO2 per capita

2000

4000

6000

8000 10000 12000 14000

Accumulated population [million]

Each Area is categorized in
1. Major cities
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties

Passenger car emissions(t-CO2/capita)
Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK
joint research project workshop (2007.6)

10

TOD (Transit Oriented Development) in local city

Toyama Light Rail(2006.4.26-)• Lack of public transport for
cities of less population
than one millions.
• It has been difficult tomanage LRT because “selfsupporting accountingsystem” was required.
• Upgrading from traditional
tram has started.

Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK
joint research project workshop (2007.6)

11

New concepts for personal mobility

Yamaha EC-02
the Segway Human
Transporter

Toyotai-Swing

Kawamura cycle KE

Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK

joint research project workshop (2007.6)(catalog information)

12Passenger transportation
Energy demand reduction potential: 80%

Energy demands (Mtoe)

60
16Decrease of demand

50

447Modal shift

6 Change
Land use

40

Energy Efficiency
30

3228

Change of totaltransportation amount
Change of structure oftransportation
Decrease of service
demandImprovement ofenergy efficiency
Electricity
H2Solar20

Biomass

10Gas
Oil

02000

2050A

2050B

Energy demands in
2000

13

Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of
CO2 emissions
Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)

02000(Actual)

50

100

150

Industrial

200

250

300

350

400

Trans. Prv.
ResidentialTrans. Frg.
Commercial

We can reduce 40% energy input
2050(ScenariowhileA)satisfying service demand

40-45% energy demand

Decrease
reduces byof
structuralchangeof demand,energy
demandand efficiency
improvement

2050(Scenario B)
Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20~40％
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60~70％
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50％
Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

14Energy supply for achieving 70%
reduction of CO2 emissions
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

And weneed
low-carbon
energy.
0100
200
300
400
500600How to mix with2000(Actual)
Coal
Oil
Gas
- Renewable energy
2050(ScenarioA)- NuclearenergyNuclear
Centralized style
Decentralized style
Fossilfuel+CCS
Biomass
Solar and Wind Micro grid
2050(Scenario B)
CoalOil

Gas

Biomass

NuclearHydroSolar and Wind

1% of GDP is necessary to diffuse LCS technologies for Scenario A and B
15

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
and Target

6$200/t-C scenarioUS5

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term visionGerm any

2FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: early2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario

W orld
China

2050

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

2040

IB1

India

0

Target forLow Carbon Society

IA22030

11970

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

7Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
16
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Gt-C

CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

LCS Scenario

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in China
EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

17

VOICES FROM COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
Friends of the Earth International, November 22, 200718

http://www.foei.org/

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/workshop.htm

We support country-wise LCS modelingthrough SD for Asia-Pacific and the world- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 -Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Oct 16-20, 2006 at NIESOct 22-26, 2007 at NIESIndia

China

Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia Brazil

RussiaSouth Taiwan,Africa China

USAJapan 19

Japan-UK Joint Research Project
LCS through Sustainable Development
for Global Participation
The First workshop was heldin Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.
Participants from 19 countries;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand,Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany,Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada

G8 Gleneagles 2005

G20 March 13-15, Chiba
G8 Env. May 25-27, Kobe

G8 JapanJuly 2008

The Second workshop was heldin London, June13-15, 2007.
The Third workshop will be heldin Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.
Developing and Diffusing Innovations
for our good life and LCS through SD20

http://2050.nies.go.jp

LCS is not only to avoid dangerous
climate change, but to…
• Avoid energy resource battles by using
resources in efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support
global sustainable development• Build safe and sound society
considering appropriate land-use andcity planning
We need good systems to pledge
people’s activity for LCS

21

What do you want to do now
for our future?

Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’s
22
Piano Class on Dec 23, 2005