ဏ‫ڡ‬ᨽဇೞ˟‫ר‬ሁඥƕဏ‫ڡ‬᧓᝹᣿఍ࠀƷЎࠋƴɨƑƨࢨ᪪Juan Martínezঅড፯‫ܖٻؽ‬ኺฎ‫ܖ‬ᄂᆮᅹҦٟᛢᆉ

1ஜᄂᆮƷႸႎ• ‫ݼ‬ಅನᡯؕஜᛦ௹↝≔≜≜≚࠰↗≕≓≓≕࠰⇭∞⇥⇁ဇⅳ↕⅚≔≜≛≘࠰↚С‫↎↻ↄܭ‬ဏ‫ڡ‬ᨽဇೞ˟‫ר‬ሁඥ
≋EEOL≌ⅻဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝ⅤЎࠋⅥ↚ɨⅷ↎ࢨ᪪⇁ଢ↸ⅺ↚ↈ↺⅛• ఍ࠀ↝Ўࠋ↚↭↖ბႸↆ↎ᄂᆮ↞‫↙ݲ‬ⅳ⅛2

ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀƸЎࠋƷˮፗƴǑƬƯࠀƕƋǔ

Source:ȱOECDȱEmploymentȱDatabase,ȱJuneȱ2013.ȱ
3ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀƷਖ਼ᆆ

4

έᘍᄂᆮ
• Edwards(1994)≝≔≜≚≘࠰ⅺ↸≔≜≜≓࠰↭↖↝⇭∞⇥⇁ဇⅳ↕‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↝‫ܖݼ‬ཞඞ↗і΁ࠊ‫↝ئ‬ཞඞ⇁ൔ᠋ↆ↕⅚EEOL↝ࢨ᪪⇁ᛦ↨↎⅛• ኽௐ≝o ‫ܖٻ↝ࣱڡ‬ҡಅྙⅻ‫ف‬ь⅛o ҡಅᎍ↝ϋ⅚⇹⇞⇳⇟ኒ‫ܖ‬ᢿ⇁‫ݦ‬ૌↈ↺‫ܖ‬ဃⅻ‫ف‬ьↆ↎⅛o ኽ۟ྙ↗Јဃૠ↞ถ‫⅛ݲ‬o ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↚↞‫҄٭‬ⅻᙸ↸↻↙ⅺ→↎⅛

5

έᘍᄂᆮ• Hori (1998): Juhn Murphy and Pierce (JMP)Ўᚐඥ⇁
ဇⅳ↕≔≜≛≙࠰ⅺ↸≔≜≜≗࠰↭↖↝᝹᣿ನᡯؕஜᛦ
௹(BSWS)↝⇭∞⇥↝ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ⇁Ўᚐↆ↎⅛• ኽௐ≝o ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝ถ‫↝ݲ‬ᙲ‫⅚↞׆‬ɼ↚ᛚࠀ᪮↝ࠀီ↚↷↺఍ࠀ↗ⅳⅵᙲ‫↖׆‬ⅱ↺ↂ↗⇁ଢ↸ⅺ↚ↆ↎⅛

6

έᘍᄂᆮ
• Kawaguchi (2005): BSWS⇭∞⇥⇁ဇⅳ↕≔≜≜≓࠰ⅺ↸≕≓≓≓࠰↭↖↝ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ⇁JMPЎᚐඥ↖Ўᚐ
ↆ↎⅛
• ኽௐ≝
o ↌↝஖᧓↝ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝ถ‫↝ݲ‬ᙲ‫⅚↞׆‬ɼ↚‫ڡ‬ࣱі΁ᎍ↝Ѯዓ࠰ૠ↝‫ف‬ь↖ⅱ↺ↂ↗⇁ଢ↸ⅺ↚ↆ↎⅛7έᘍᄂᆮ• Abe (2010): ≔≜≚≘࠰ⅺ↸≕≓≓≘࠰↭↖↝BSWS⇭∞⇥⇁ဇⅳ↕ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝ᧈ஖ႎ↙ਖ਼ᆆ⇁ᛦ↨↎⅛• ኽௐ≝o ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↞጑‫⅛ݱ‬o ↂ↻↞‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↝‫↝ࣱޓ‬ӓႩྙ↝‫↙↞↖҄٭‬ⅾ⅚૙Ꮛ൦แ↝‫ࢨ↺↷↚҄٭‬᪪↖ⅱ↺ↂ↗⇁ᅆՐↆ↕ⅳ↺⅛o ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝጑‫↞ݱ‬ཎ↚‫ܖٻ‬ҡ↝‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↚ⅹⅳ↕ࢊⅳ⅛↓↭↹⅚ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝጑‫↞ݱ‬ӓλ↝‫↙ݲ‬ⅳ⇖∑∞⇽↚ᨼɶↆ↕ⅳ↺⅛8ȇȸǿƱЎௌ૾ඥ• ⇭∞⇥≝‫ݼ‬ಅನᡯؕஜᛦ௹↝≔≜≜≚࠰ࡇ↗≕≓≓≕࠰
ࡇ⅛
• ∈⇭∑≝∅∙⇛∞‫׹‬᝹᣿᧙ૠ⅛• ᘮᛟଢ‫٭‬ૠ≝଺᧓࢘↎↹᝹᣿ྙ↝‫ݣ‬ૠ⅛• ᛟଢ‫٭‬ૠ≝
oooooooѮዓ࠰ૠ᭗ఄҡ⅚ჺ‫ٻ‬ҡ⅚‫ܖٻ‬ҡ⇦∅∞ኽ۟⇦∅∞ദᙹᨽဇᎍ⇦∅∞
˖ಅ↗Ꮀಅ⇦∅∞
ɤ‫ٻ‬ᣃࠊ⇦∅∞இ‫ٻ‬૙Ꮛҡಅ↝଺↝‫ڂ‬ಅྙ• ⇛∙⇽∑≝‫↕ↆܖݼ‬ⅳ↙ⅳ⅚ࢼಅՃᙹ೉≔≓≓ʴˌɥ↝ʙಅ৑↚Ѯ↰↕ⅳ↺ဏ‫ڡ‬і΁ᎍ⅛9ȇȸǿƱЎௌ૾ඥ• ⇙∁∞⇮↝‫ܭ‬፯≝• Pre-EEOL:≔≜≛≓≐≔≜≛≘࠰ҡಅↆ↎і΁ᎍ⅛
• Post-EEOL:≔≜≛≙≐≔≜≜≕࠰ҡಅↆ↎і΁ᎍ⅛
• Regression Discontinuity Design.

10ȇȸǿƱЎௌ૾ඥ㻼㼛㼟㼠㻙㻱㻱㻻㻸㻼㼞㼑㻙㻱㻱㻻㻸㻔㻝㻥㻤㻢㻙㻝㻥㻥㻞༞㻕 㻔㻝㻥㻤㻜㻙㻝㻥㻤㻡༞㻕䝁䝩䞊䝖• ⇙∁∞⇮↝‫ܭ‬፯≝ᑵᴗᵓ㐀ᇶᮏㄪᰝ䛾䝃䞁䝥䝹ᖺᗘ㻝㻥㻥㻣㻞㻜㻜㻞ᖹᆒᖺ㱋⏨ᛶ䠖䚷㻟㻠㻚㻝㻠ዪᛶ䠖䚷㻟㻟㻚㻝㻣ᖹᆒᖺ㱋⏨ᛶ䠖䚷㻟㻥㻚㻜㻡ዪᛶ䠖䚷㻟㻤㻚㻝㻤ᖹᆒᖺ㱋⏨ᛶ䠖㻌㻞㻤㻚㻟㻢ዪᛶ䠖㻌㻞㻣㻚㻞㻣ᖹᆒᖺ㱋⏨ᛶ䠖㻌㻟㻟㻚㻟㻟ዪᛶ䠖䚷㻟㻞㻚㻞㻡• ⇓∉∐⇈∞↝ᧈↄⅻီ↙↺⇛∙⇽∑↝᝹᣿ࠀ↝ൔ᠋↞⇶⇊⇈⇟ⅻဃↇ↺⅛• ↷→↕⅚⇓∉∐⇈↝ᧈↄⅻ↪↫ሁↆⅳ⅚≔≜≜≚࠰↝PreEEOL⇙∁∞⇮↗≕≓≓≕࠰↝Post-EEOL⇙∁∞⇮⇁ൔ᠋ↈ
↺⅛11

Ўᚐ૾ඥ
• Melly (2007)↚ؕ↔ⅼ⅚↌↻↍↻↝⇙∁∞⇮↚‫≌≔ ↕ↆݣ‬⊡≗≌↝৖᪯⇁ᘍⅵ≝≔≌ဏ‫∑⇽∙⇛ڡ‬К↚⅚‫ٶ‬ૠ↝Ўˮໜ↚ⅹⅳ↕⅚Ўˮໜ‫ׅ࠙‬↖᝹᣿᧙ૠ⇁ਖ਼‫⅚ↆܭ‬வˑ˄ⅼ᝹᣿Ўࠋ⇁൭↰↺≝ିଵ௞ ൌ ܺ ௞ ߚ ௞ ɒ ǡ ‫׊‬ɒ ‫ א‬ሺͲǡͳሻ௜௪ȁ௫ ɒ ௜݇ ൌ ݉ǡ ݂≕≌Ўˮໜ‫↝ׅ࠙‬ኽௐ⇁ဇⅳ↕⅚໯வˑЎࠋ⇁ਖ਼‫≝↺ↈܭ‬ேೖመ௞ො ߚ ǡ ௞௃ͳൌ  ‫ݍ‬ǣ ௞ ෍ ෍ሺɒ௝ െ ɒ௝ିଵ ሻͳሺܺ௜ ௞ ߚመ ௞ ɒ௝ ൑ ‫ݍ‬ሻ ൒ ߠܰ௜ୀଵ ௝ୀଵ12Ўᚐ૾ඥ≖≌‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↝‫ࣱޓ‬Ўࠋ↗ဏࣱі΁ᎍ↝Ўˮໜ‫↝ׅ࠙‬ኽௐ⇁ဇ
ⅳ↕⅚ഏ↝ʚ↓↝ˎेႎ↙Ўࠋ≋counterfactual distributions)⇁ਖ਼‫≝ܭ‬ே೑መ௠ො ߚ ǡ ௙௃ͳᇱൌ  ‫ݍ‬ǣ ௙ ෍ ෍ሺɒ௝ െ ɒ௝ିଵ ሻͳሺܺ௜ ௙ ߚመ ௠ ɒ௝ ൑ ‫ݍ‬ሻ ൒ ߠܰ௜ୀଵ ௝ୀଵො ߚመ ௙ǡ௥ሺ௠ሻ ǡ  ௙ , where ߚመ ௙ǡ௥ሺ௠ሻ ൌ ߚመ ௙ ͲǤͷ ൅ ߚመ௠ ߬ െ ߚመ ௠ ሺͲǤͷሻ≗≌ഏ↝Ўᚐ⇁ᘍⅵ≝ො ߚመ ௙ ǡ  ௙ െ ො ߚመ௠ ǡ  ௠ ൌ ො ߚመ௠ ǡ  ௙ െ ො ߚመ ௠ ǡ  ௠൅ ො ߚመ ௙ǡ௥ሺ௠ሻ ǡ  ௙ െ ො ߚመ ௠ ǡ  ௙‫ࠀ↝ࣱޓ‬൅ ො ߚመ ௙ ǡ  ௙ െ ො ߚመ ௙ǡ௥ ௠ ǡ  ௙ᛚࠀ᪮↝ࠀӓႩྙ↝ࠀ

13ЎᚐƷኽௐ
TotalȱDifferenceȱinȱLogȬ
HourlyȱWage
Pre97(1)Ȭ0.5647***(0.0144)
Ȭ0.4896***(0.0124)
Ȭ0.4439***(0.0115)
Ȭ0.4129***(0.0106)
Ȭ0.3899***(0.01)
Ȭ0.3742***(0.0097)Ȭ0.3635***(0.0096)Ȭ0.3586***(0.0102)
Ȭ0.3349***(0.0133)

Post02(2)Ȭ0.4494***(0.011)
Ȭ0.4255***(0.0093)
Ȭ0.3974***(0.0085)
Ȭ0.3711***(0.0084)
Ȭ0.3477***(0.0085)
Ȭ0.3295***(0.0085)
Ȭ0.3163***(0.0088)Ȭ0.311***(0.0085)
Ȭ0.3063***(0.0107)

Observationsȱinȱ
referenceȱgroup

4,875

Observationsȱinȱ
counterfactualȱgroup

11,837

Quantile
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.80.9Differenceȱinȱ
Characteristicsȱ
(%ȱofȱtotal)
Pre97
Post02(3)(4)

Differenceȱinȱ
Coefficients(%ȱofȱtotal)
Pre97
Post02(5)(6)

48.4%***

63.2%***

44.4%***

47.3%***

64.8%***

46.7%***

DifferenceȱinȱResiduals(%ȱofȱtotal)
Pre97
(7)

Post02(8)

27.8%***

7.3%***

9.2%***

46%***

28.4%***

6.9%***

6.9%***

65.1%***

47.9%***

30.1%***

5.5%*

4.9%*

47.2%***

64.7%***

49.2%***

32.1%***

3.7%

3.4%

48.5%***

63.9%***

50.3%***

33.8%***

1.4%

2.5%

50.2%***

61.8%***

49.8%***

35.8%***

0.1%

2.6%

53.2%***

59.5%***

48.8%***

36.6%***

Ȭ1.9%

4.1%

59%***

57.5%***

46.4%***

35.8%***

Ȭ5.3%

6.8%*73.5%***59.8%***

46.2%***

37.6%***

Ȭ19.6%***

2.8%

5,329

4,875

5,329

4,875

5,329

4,875

5,329

13,733

11,837

13,733

11,837

13,733

11,837

13,733

Decompositionȱobtainedȱbyȱ100ȱQuantileȱRegressions.ȱMaleȱworkersȱareȱtakenȱasȱtheȱcounterfactualȱgroup.
StandardȱErrorsȱinȱparenthesisȱestimatedȱbyȱ100ȱbootstrapȱreplications.ȱ***ȱp<0.01,ȱ**ȱp<0.05,ȱ*ȱp<0.10
EstimatedȱwithȱtheȱStataȱcdeco_jmp command.ȱ

14ЎᚐƷኽௐ

15ЎᚐƷኽௐ• ᝹᣿↝˯ⅳі΁ᎍ↚ⅹⅳ↕ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝጑‫ݱ‬ⅻᙸ↸↻↺⅛• ‫↗ࣱޓ‬ᛚࠀ᪮↝ࠀီ↚↷↺఍ࠀ↚↞‫҄٭‬ⅻᙸ↸↻↙ⅺ→↎⅛• ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ↝጑‫↝҄٭↝ݱ‬ɼ↙ᙲ‫↝ࣱޓ↞׆‬ӓႩྙ↝‫↖҄٭‬ⅱ↺⅛
• ↎↏ↆ⅚Ўˮໜ‫↝ׅ࠙‬ኽௐ⇁ᙸ↺↗∝∝∝

16Ўˮໜ‫ׅ࠙‬ƷኽௐᲴဏࣱ
10thȱQuantile
CohortTenureTenureȱSquared
RegularMarriedHighschoolJuniorȱCollege
College(1)Pre970.0311***(0.0065)
Ȭ0.0005(0.0004)
0.2446**(0.1139)0.1207***(0.0138)0.1878***(0.0453)0.2152***(0.0429)
0.4066***(0.0403)

Median(2)
Post020.0339***(0.0044)
Ȭ0.0008***(0.0003)0.2166***(0.0443)
0.1566***(0.013)0.065(0.0566)
0.1779***(0.0554)0.3052***(0.0553)(3)Pre970.0196***(0.0055)
0.0001(0.0003)0.1777***(0.0638)0.1194***(0.0101)0.2017***(0.0282)0.2265***(0.026)
0.4315***(0.0265)90thȱQuantile(4)
Post020.0259***(0.004)
Ȭ0.0002(0.0003)0.1516***(0.0277)0.1264***(0.0088)
0.0563(0.0368)
0.1727***(0.0362)0.3102***(0.036)(5)Pre970.0127*(0.0069)0.0002(0.0004)
Ȭ0.0717(0.1719)0.1197***(0.0161)
0.227***(0.0362)0.2158***(0.0398)
0.4449***(0.0386)(6)
Post020.0011(0.0062)0.0009***(0.0004)
0.1249***(0.0439)0.1316***(0.0131)0.0424(0.0778)
0.1463*(0.0766)
0.2808***(0.0765)

Numberȱofȱ
11,837
13,733
11,837
13,733
11,837
13,733Observations
PseudoȱRȱsquared
0.16830.17630.16230.16040.13250.1186
Standardȱerrorsȱinȱparenthesisȱobtainedȱbyȱ100ȱbootstrapȱreplications.ȱ***ȱp<0.01,ȱ**ȱp<0.05,ȱ*ȱp<0.1Theȱdependentȱvariableȱisȱtheȱlogȱofȱhourlyȱwages.ȱOtherȱcontrolȱvariablesȱincludeȱurban,ȱindustryȱandȱ 17
occupationȱdummies,ȱasȱwellȱasȱtheȱunemploymentȱrateȱatȱtheȱestimatedȱtimeȱofȱgraduation.

Ўˮໜ‫ׅ࠙‬ƷኽௐᲴ‫ࣱڡ‬10thȱQuantile
CohortTenureTenureȱSquared
RegularMarriedHighschool
JuniorȱCollege
College
Numberȱofȱ
Observations
PseudoȱRȱsquaredMedian90thȱQuantile

(1)
Pre97
0.0445***(0.0087)
Ȭ0.0005(0.0005)
0.3391***(0.0259)
Ȭ0.0091(0.0227)
0.1623**(0.0645)
0.3439***(0.0632)
0.4429***(0.0733)(2)
Post020.0458***(0.0082)
Ȭ0.0011*(0.0006)
0.2343***(0.0262)0.0146(0.0223)0.1045*(0.0593)0.2462***(0.0519)0.3784***(0.0616)(3)Pre97
0.0466***(0.0071)
Ȭ0.0008**(0.0004)
0.3384***(0.023)0.0001(0.0147)
0.1641***(0.0386)
0.292***(0.0395)
0.4932***(0.0509)(4)
Post020.0333***(0.0059)
Ȭ0.0005(0.0004)
0.2838***(0.0212)0.0264*(0.0144)
0.1239**(0.0508)0.2455***(0.0511)0.4282***(0.0499)(5)Pre970.0373***(0.0113)
Ȭ0.0006(0.0006)
0.1947***(0.0565)0.0001(0.0194)0.2134***(0.0534)
0.3331***(0.0577)0.7793***(0.1357)(6)
Post020.0008(0.0095)
0.001(0.0007)0.2675***(0.0359)
0.0541**(0.0236)
0.0463(0.0643)
0.3216***(0.0581)0.4891***(0.0604)

4,875

5,329

4,875

5,329

4,875

5,329

0.25080.18910.23520.22

0.14910.1254Standardȱerrorsȱinȱparenthesisȱobtainedȱbyȱ100ȱbootstrapȱreplications.ȱ***ȱp<0.01,ȱ**ȱp<0.05,ȱ*ȱp<0.1Theȱdependentȱvariableȱisȱtheȱlogȱofȱhourlyȱwages.ȱOtherȱcontrolȱvariablesȱincludeȱurban,ȱindustryȱandȱ
18
occupationȱdummies,ȱasȱwellȱasȱtheȱunemploymentȱrateȱatȱtheȱestimatedȱtimeȱofȱgraduation.

Ўˮໜ‫ׅ࠙‬Ʒኽௐඥࢷ଀ᘍࢸ↝⇙∁∞⇮↞⅚଀ᘍЭ↝⇙∁∞⇮↚ൔ↨≝• ဏ‫ٻ⅚↱↗ڡ‬ҡӏ↢ദᙹᨽဇ↖ⅱ↺ↂ↗ⅻ⅚᝹᣿ɥଞ↚ɨⅷ↺јௐ↞ถ‫⅛↎ↆݲ‬• ‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↚ⅹⅳ↕↞Ѯዓ࠰ૠ↝јௐ↱ʖे‫↚ٳ‬ถ‫ↆݲ‬↎⅛

19

ኽᛯ
• EEOL↞ဏ‫᧓ڡ‬᝹᣿఍ࠀ⇁ஊॖ↚጑‫⅛↎ↆݱ‬• ↌↝ࢨ᪪↞᝹᣿↝˯ⅳі΁ᎍ↚ᨼɶↆ↕ⅳ↺≋Abe,2010↗ૢӳႎ≌⅛• ↌↝ࢨ᪪↞ɼ↚‫↝ࣱޓ‬ӓႩྙ↚↷↺ࢨ᪪↖ⅱ↺≋Hori,1998↗ီ↙↺≌⅛• Ѯዓ࠰ૠ↝ӓႩྙ↞ཎ↚‫ࣱڡ‬і΁ᎍ↚ⅹⅳ↕ถ‫ݲ‬≋Kawaguchi, 2005↗ီ↙↺≌⅛20

ƝฌᎮ᪬ƖƋǓƕƱƏƝƟƍǇƠƨ

21