Implementing IPCC methodology
in model CASMOFOR
to estimate the forest carbon sink
Zoltan Somogyi
National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre

Forest Research InstituteBudapest, Hungary
somogyiz@iif.hu
www.scientia.hu/casmofor

IPCC Expert Meeting: Application of 2006 IPCC Guidelines to Other Areas
1-3 July 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria

WGIII Report of AR5:„energy use reductions … will not be sufficient bythemselves to constrain GHG emissions”• „mitigation scenarios indicate a potentially critical role
for land‐related mitigation measures”• „the potential of afforestation is limited”• „there is a wide uncertainty in the role of afforestation
and reforestation in mitigation”
IPCC WGIII Report, Final Draft, fretrieved 22 June 2014
from http://mitigation2014.org/report/final-draft/Some mitigation options in forestry
MeasureSomogyi, Z. 1996. Report on the possibilities for carbon sequestration by the forestry sectorin Hungary. Unpublished report for the Ministry of Environment, Budapest, Hungary.

A potentially useful, IPCC-compatible tool to model
forest carbon dynamics: www.scientia.hu/casmoforIssues addressed by using CASMOFOR so far:
What is the potential of AR projects?
Are methodologies good enough to pursuade stakeholders?

Somogyi, Z. 2000. Possibilities for carbon sequestration by the forestry sector in Hungary.
Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Societe et Environnement Vol. 4 No. 4 pp. 296-299.

How much is the projected sink of the AR category?
Informing the Initial Report of Hungary• results affected domestic policy choices for the 1st CP• compatibility with inventory estimates was essential• projections depend both on the assumptions for futureafforestations with respect to species, site andevolution of total area over time, but also on models
applied• guidance for projections was (and is still) missing
Somogyi, Z. 2006. Report on options for the forestry sector of Hungary for the first Commitment
Period of the Kyoto Protocol. Background study for the Ministry of Environment, Budapest.

Estimates of average annual sink in CP1 (MtCO2yr-1):
CASMOFOR (2005):
1.1
GHG inventory (2014): 1.22
CASMOFOR

Somogyi, Z. 2006. Report on options for the forestry sector of Hungary for the first Commitment
Period of the Kyoto Protocol. Background study for the Ministry of Environment, Budapest.

Net cost of AR: model estimates for the scenario of 10,000
hayr-1, fast growing species on good site
CASMOFOR

Somogyi, Z. 2008. GHG mitigation scenarios for Hungary up
to 2025 – the forestry sector. Research report, Budapest.

Compararing 32 afforestation scenarios
Estimates by CASMOFOR

Somogyi, Z. 2008. GHG mitigation scenarios for Hungary up
to 2025 – the forestry sector. Research report, Budapest.

How can FMRL estimate be validated?

Estimate by CASMOFOR

Official Submission

Differences were due to: • incomplete modeling• methodological inconsistencies

Somogyi, Z. 2011. Submission of information on forest
management reference levels by Hungary. www.unfccc.int

Projections for the mitigation sections ofNational Communications (1997-2013)
Estimates by CASMOFOR

Somogyi, Z. 2013. Forestry section of the 6th National
Communication of Hungary. www.unfccc.int

Research on how climate change may affect thecarbon balance of forests(graph shows baseline scenario, i.e. assuming no climate change, for beech
forests in Zala country, Hungary; Somogyi Z. 2014, ongoing research)

Possible additional questions by decision makers
that could be answered by CASMOFOR• how much C can be fixed on a given area?
• how much area is needed to fix a given amountof C?
• how quickly?
• for how much money?

Possible additional questions by decision makers
that could be answered by CASMOFOR• which species is worth using from a sequestration
point of view?
• what are the effects of site and other factors?
• how permanent is C sequestration?

Methodologically, mitigation projects,projections and NGHGIs are different• NGHGIs: historical data; projections: scenarios; projects:
bothhow to develop projections of activity data? how todeal with changing EF/RF?

• methodologies can be different
under what conditions can NGHGI methods oralready existing project methodologies (e.g. underthe CDM) be applied?
• NGHGI models are partly covered by IPCC report of 2010
„Use of Models … in Greenhouse Gas Inventories”
what criteria should projections meet?

CASMOFOR:an IPCC-compatible model• based on IPCC 2006 Guidelines (Tier 2-3-1)• cohorts by species/varieties and site of appr-

opriate data (can be changed in regenerations)• ~40 equations of dynamics of all carbon pools plus
forestry and carbon economics (all in website)• calculations in annual steps

CASMOFOR models balanced processes
AIRtree growth

BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots

CASMOFOR models balanced processes
tree growthAIRdecomposition,
burning

DEAD WOOD
LITTER
SOIL

BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots
death,
disturbanceCASMOFOR models balanced processes
tree growthAIRdecomposition,burning

DEAD WOOD
LITTER
SOIL

BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots
death,
disturbancetimberharvestCASMOFOR models balanced processes
tree growthAIRdecomposition,
burning

BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots

DEAD WOOD
LITTER
SOIL

death,
disturbance

TIMBER IN FOREST

timberharvestCASMOFOR models balanced processes
tree growthAIRdecomposition,
burningburning
decomposition,
burning

BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots

DEAD WOOD
LITTER
SOIL

death,
disturbance

TIMBER IN FOREST

timberharvestFIREWOOD
WOOD PRODUCTS

CASMOFOR models balanced processes
BIOMASS:wood, leaves,roots

tree growthAIRdecomposition,
burningburning
decomposition,
burning

DEAD WOOD
LITTER
SOIL

death,
disturbance

TIMBER IN FOREST

timberharvestFIREWOOD
WOOD PRODUCTS
substitution

Methodological issues of using models• what project boundaries to apply?
• are project and national level methods consistent?
(=could projected sink be regarded as potential

additions to AR?)• consistency between gain-loss method and stockchange method?

CASMOFOR:
a forestry data warehouse for Hungary• yield tables• silvicultural models• 22 factors of carbon dynamics• economic model of costs and revenues(including carbon credits)for 18 species/species group, and often by 6yield groups

CASMOFOR:
an adaptable and transparent framework• fully customizable database: both local („countryspecific”) or IPCC default data could be usedwhich IPCC default data / under what conditions?
• the application of data can be checked during
simulations• the model was successfully adapted in South Africa

CASMOFOR: implementation• growth rate + silvicultural regime + disturbance
regime must be known / simulated / assumed• changing parameter values over time is possible
guidance on the methodology to estimate
growth rate, disturbance and other parameters
under changing climate?

CASMOFOR in a model comparison

Ndalowa, D. 2014. Evaluation of carbon accounting models for plantationforestry in South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86247

CASMOFOR:a simple, accurate, user-friendly framework„CASMOFOR predicted with higher accuracy thecarbon … than [other] … models…. This is largely
because the model meets all five of thecharacteristics of modifiability, reliability, efficiency,integrity and usability (McCall et al., 1977 cited byOrtega& Rojas, 2003) which are important in thesuccess of any software or model.”Ndalowa, D. 2014. Evaluation of carbon accounting models for plantation
forestry in South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86247

CASMOFOR:an accurate, transparent, simple framework• calculations compatible with the Law of theCoservation of Mass and Energy• Uncertainty analysis is possible using the built-inMonte Carlo module• extended help both inand• system in MS Excel + its VBA to keep everything

simpleShould IPCC work on
methodological issues of (AFOLU) mitigation?
Managing climate change requires:

Assessment – Mitigation – Adaptation
so a TF GGP might not only need to include:
NATIONAL LEVEL
SUB-NATIONAL LEVELs(past)(future)

Should IPCC work on
methodological issues of (AFOLU) mitigation?
Managing climate change requires:

Assessment – Mitigation – Adaptation
a TF GGP might need to include:
SUPRA-NATIONAL LEVELSUPRA-NATIONAL LEVELNATIONAL LEVELNATIONAL LEVEL

SUB-NATIONAL LEVELs

SUB-NATIONAL LEVELs(past)(future)