INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON RESILIENCE RESEARCH
Cooperative Center for Resilience Research (CCRR)
National University of Mongolia, Nagoya University (Japan)

PROGRAM
10:50-17:00 Monday,16 May
Fresh Water Resources and Nature Conservation Center, Ulaanbaatar

10:50-11:00
BATTULGA Sukhee (CCRR, NUM), Yasuhiro SUZUKI (CCRR, Nagoya Univ.)
Opening Remarks
11:00-11:25
1. CHULUUN Togtokh (Director of Institute for Sustainable Development, NUM):“Resilience in Mongolia: History and Future”(Монголын сэргэн хөгжихүй: Өнгөрсөн ба ирээдүй)11:25-11:50
2. MYAGMARTSEREN Purevtseren (Head of Department of Geography, NUM):“Urban spatial and demography dynamics of Ulaanbaatar city”(УБ хотын хүн амын шилжилт хөдөлгөөн ба орон зайн тэлэлт)11:50-12:15
3. Yasuhiro SUZUKI (Nagoya Univ.)“Problems associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake”(2016 оны Күмамотогийн газар хөдлөлтийн хохирол ба эрсдэлээс хамгаалах асуудал)12:15-13:15 Commemorative Photographs ＆ Lunch time

13:15-13:40
4. SERGMYADAG Dalai (Disaster Research Institute, National Emergency Management
Agency):“Current status of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia”(Газар хөдлөлтийн гамшгийн эрсдэлийг бууруулах үйл ажиллагааны өнөөгийн
байдал)13:40-14:05
5. MINJIN Tserenbaltav (Law Enforcement University):“Features of the Nomads and Mongolian tradition of environmental protection”(Нүүдэлчдийн онцлог хийгээд Монголчуудын байгаль хамгаалж ирсэн уламжлал)14:05-14:30
6. IRMUUNZAYA Khurtsbaatar (Fresh Water Resources and Nature Conservation Center)“Assessing water quality of Sugnugur, Gatsuurt and Kharaa rivers using macroinvertebrate communities”(Сөгнөгөр, Гацуурт, Хараа голуудын усны чанарыг макро-сээрнуруугүйтний
бүлгэмдлээр тодорхойлох нь)

14:30-14:50 Coffee Break

14:50-15:15
7. ARIUNAA Chadraabal (National Emergency Management Agency):“Adaptation or Resilience for Dzud Mitigation in Mongolia”(Монгол орны Зудыг даван туулах асуудал)15:15-15:40
8. TULGA Mendjargal (Ministry of Environment, Green development and Tourism):“Development of on- and off-grid renewable energy in Mongolia”(Дахин сэргээгдэх эрчим хүчийг ашиглах боломжийн тухай)15:40-16:05
9. ENKHMANDAKH P (Ministry of Construction and Urban Development):“Problems associated with urban planning of Ulaanbaatar”(Улаанбаатарын хот төлөвлөлтийн асуудал)16:05-16:35
Discussion(Yasuhiro SUZUKI, Tetsuya INAMURA, Shinsuke TOMITA, Shoko ISHI)
16:35-16:45
BATTULGA Sukhee, Yasuhiro SUZUKI (CCRR)
Closing Remarks

Content Resilience conceptp The Earth System

 Principles for building resilience Green Development Policy as resilience policy
T. Chuluun, Director
Institute for Sustainable Development
National University of Mongolia

Resilience – Three features
1.

PERSISTENCE in the face ofchange, buffer capacity,withstand shocks

2.

ADAPTABILITY the capacity
l iin a social-ecological
i l
l i l
off people
system to manage resiliencee.g. through collective action

3.

TRANSFORMABILITY thecapacity of people in a socialecological system to create aecologicalnew system when ecological,
political, social or economic
conditions make the existing
system untenable Urban development
 PastoralPl system Summary notes Did Mongolia have resilience in the past?
 What future implications can we expect from application ofresilience concept for Mongolia?

Сэргэн хөгжихүйн онол (Resilience)Өсөлт (r); Хөгжил (K); Уналт (); Шинэчлэл ()Ой санамж (remember),(remember) сүйрэл (revolt)A resilient (sustainable) Earth System

Reduced resilience – our precarious
predicament

Greenhouse gas in theatmosphere: Antarctic ice core 400
400

Methaneppmv

CarbondioxideBeyond planetary boundaries

Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Human DevelopmentpandEarth System Dynamics HoloceneFirst migration of
fully modern humans
out of Africa

Aborigines
arrive inAustralia

Migrations fromSouth Asia
to Europe

Beginningof agriculture

Great Asian,
European, African,
Americancivilisations

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

P1. Maintain diversity & redundancy

P2. Manage connectivity “Systems with many differentp
are ggenerallyycomponents
more resilient than systems
with few components.
 Redundancy provides‘insurance’ within a system byallowing some components tof the
h lloss orcompensate for
failure of others.
 Redundancy
y is even morevaluable if the components
providing the redundancy
also react differently tochange and disturbance.” Hypothesis: Livestock diversity
 Tolerance
T l
t di
to
diversity
it offcultures in the XIII century
 Openp country
y since democracyy Freedom for diversity
 Emergence of the Mongolian
culture and freedom

 Diversity of economy!
 Diversity of export!

 “Bagsh – shav” relation isvaluable for redundancy

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

 “Connectivity can bothenhancehandd reducedthethresilience of socialecological systems and theecosystem services they
produce.
 Well-connected systems canovercome and recover ffrom
disturbances more quickly, but
overly connected systems maylead to the rapid spread of
disturbances across the entire
system so that all componentsof the system are impacted.” Unification fordevelopment of Mongolia
 Uncouple private businessandd government, fighting
fi h iagainst oligarchy
 Hypothesis: Traditional
networks become stronger
after disasters like zud, but
tend to become loose
during normal years?

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

P3. Manage slow variables & feedbacks

P4 Foster complex adaptive systems thinking
P4.





 “In a rapidly changing
world, managing slow
variables and feedbacks isoften crucial to keep socialecologicall i l systems
configured and functioning
in ways that produce
ti l ecosystemtiessential
services.
 If these systems shift into a
different configuration or
regime,i
it can b
be extremelytldifficult to reverse.”

 Climate change
g as criticalslow variable Reduce brain drain,instead encourage brain
gain and brain circulation
as (+) feedbacks
Pt fromfll
 Preventcollapse,
avoiding inequality(poverty trap) andenvironmental
degradation

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

 “Although Complex
Adaptive Systems thinking
does not directly enhance
the resilience of a system, acknowledging that socialecological systems are basedon a complex and
unpredictable web ofconnections andinterdependencies is the firststep
t ttowards
d managementtactions that can foster
resilience.”

Economicco o cPolitical

Environmental

SocialCultureMongolia
l is viewed
d as an open
complex adaptive system

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

Mongolia as an open complex system
Mongolia is viewed as ancomplex adaptive system,
consistedi t d off interconnected
i tt dpolitical, economic, social,ecological and culturalsubsystems as five mainorgans of the organism,g fatherinterconnected throughson and friend-enemy
connections (as in folk
ed c e). For
o Mo
Mongolia’s
go a smedicine).
health it is essential to have
healthy subsystems. Mongolia
made transition to democracy
and market economy 2
decades ago, becoming an
open system – necessary
condition for change!

P5. Encourage learning

Economic

Political

Environmental

SocialCulture “Learning andexperimentationit ti ththroughhadaptive and collaborative
management is an importantmechanism for building
resilience in social-ecologicalsystems.
 It ensures that different
types and sources ofknowledge are valued andconsidered whendeveloping solutions,solutions andleads to greater willingness
to experiment and takerisks.”

 Local and traditional
knowledge
 Innovation, science andtechnology as a tool fortransformation, building
societal resilience Economic and ecologicalinterdependence zenith?

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

P6. Broaden participation

P7 P
P7.
Promotet polycentriclt i governance systemst “Broadoad aandd wellefunctioning
participation can build
trust, create a sharedunderstanding anduncover perspectives
that may not be
acquiredqthroughg moretraditional scientificprocesses.” JapaJapan (130?)( 30?) - Mo
Mongolia
go a(3) partnershippfor local Participation
development, including
nutgiin zovlols?
 Co-design of research,co-implementation bymultiple stakeholders

 “Collaboration acrossinstitutions and scales
improves connectivity
and learning
g across scales
and cultures.
 Well-connected
governance structures canswiftly deal with change
and disturbance becauseth are addressed
they
dd
d by
b th
the
right people at the righttime.”

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

Sustainable development goals for people
and planet, Nature 495, 305–307 (2013)

Earth’s lifesupport
ppsystemy

Civilizations aref
byy thedefinedeconomic, political,
social, and culturaliinteractions
i
among
them.

Transformation towards Sustainability(A
Air, wateer, ecossystemss & bioodiversity)

Green civilization:
Development that meets“Development
the needs of the present
while safeguardingfg
gdiversity of cultures andEarth’s life-supportthi h thethsystem,on whichwelfare of current andfuture generations
depends.”

Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem
Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2014

Environme
ental Resilie
Rence

Green Civilization in the Anthropocene

 Applicationppof resilience
concept for governanceand management ofsocial ecological systems
social-ecological Promote traditional
pastoral networks such as
neg golynhon
 Training of local leaders
on sustainability for
public administrationCollapse
S i l Resilience
SocialR ili(Education, health, poverty & inequality)

T. Chuluun, Minstry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia

Regime shift
with transition
to democracy
and market
economyy in
Mongolia
since 1990+
Climatechange,resulted inincreasedsocialecologicall i lvulnerability

Green Development
Policy Concept

Sustainable production &consumption

Political



Economic

Green jobs &Poverty reduction

Green economy& finance

Conservation
Ci &RestorationSocial

Education, Science, Technologygy &Innovation

Environmental

Goal 6. Development compatible withclimate changechange, natural resources &resilience of regions
gCulturalStrategic objective #6: Develop and implement a population
settlement plan in accordance with climate change, whileconsidering the availability of natural resources and theresilience of regions.
regions• Building green smart cities & villages for quality of life
• Green urban planning

6 goals
2014‐20202021 2030
2021‐2030

T. Chuluun, Minstry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia

Future Scenarios of Ulaanbaatar City by 2030
Resilient scenario
Inclusive scenario

• Quality education and medical
services for all;• Decreased inequality;• Eradication of slum areas.

• Both green and inclusive• Safe and healthy environment• Development of aimag centersand satellite cities;• Rapid train (light rail) system;• Nomadic civilization park.

Human-Environmental System
External drivers
and shocks(e.g., market drop,
new policy)

Effects of decision-making


H →E

Human

BAU scenario

Green scenario• Doubling of human population;• Continued spatial growth• Expansion of ger districts;• Increasingg traffic;;• Environmental pollution;• Not quality social services;• Increasing inequality.

• Heat loss reduction from thebuildings by 30%;
• Increased renewable energy useup
p to 30% of total energy
gy
production;• Clean air and water;
part• Green zones in central part.
NORTHEAST ASIAN MAYORS’ FORUM

External drivers
and shocks(e.g., natural disasters,
climate change)‘Local’ knowledge
about systemyEnvironment

E→H

Products of ecosystem services(food production)
Evolving human sub-system(changing technology, institutions
and human capital)

Stafford Smith, McKeon et al (2007) PNAS

Evolving environment sub-system(changing forage and animal
production system)

•
•
•
•
•
•

Weak cooperation & trust
Landscape fragmentation
Land degradation
Poverty trap
Increased inequality

•
•
•
•

BAU

Green ttechnologiesGh l iConservation of natureculture integrity
Societal resilience
Low inequality

Traditional System••••

Strong cooperation
Cultural landscape use
Good ecosystem services
Subsistence

Loss of adaptive capacity to climate variability

Poor

Adaptationn and green deevelopm
ment
with
w
ren
newable energgy and IT

Good
G

Q
Qualityy of life
Poor

“Green civilization”“Western way”

Rich
Ri
hh
herdersd(f(fencing)i )Ecosystem degradation
due to overgrazing &miningMaladaptation••

Green development model of
pastoral systempy Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan

htt //
http://www.ccau.jp/
j /

Good

Ecosystem services and biodiversity

Mongolia: Resilience History

Opportunities for Mongolia Did we have resilience in Mongolia in the past?
 Persistence - Yes Adaptability - Yes TransformabilityTfbilit – Yes
Y and
d No
N
 What was the sources of Mongolian people’s resilience?
 Culture compatible with extreme continental climate?
 Intellectual capacity due to food?
 Are we strengthening resilience in Mongolia now?
 Brain drain (тархины дүрвэлт)!
 Brain gain and brain circulation!

 Economic resilience: Creating future funds to cope with uncertainties
 Diversifying economy

 Political resilience: Building inclusive political institutions to foster
inclusive economic institutions (James Robinson)

 Social resilience: Reducing
g inequalityqy&p
providingg equalqopportunitiespp Natural and Cultural Resilience Enforcing
 Governance ffor Resilience and Sustainabilityy across scales

Summary Mongolia has rich resilient history
 Cultural, natural and historic heritages must be
prosperityp y of Mongoliagfoundation for future p Global lessons, technologies and innovations areamplifying factors for transformation of Mongolia
towards sustainability
 Strategic partnership between Japan and Mongolia,
i l di llow carbon
includingb ddevelopmentlt partnershipthi andd ffree
trade may serve as critical drivers

Problems of the 2016 Kumamoto
Earthquakes in Japan
continuously occurring since 14 April

YasuhiroY
hi S
Suzukiki
Nagoyaagoya U
University
e s tyActive Fault - the origin of the earthquake

Active Faulting
North

Strike slip
p fault

West

Reverse fault

South

East

Ruptures running toward the village

Serious damages occurred in Kumamoto
Photos from websites

Surface ruptures on paddy field

Situation of damage
as of 13 May 2016

 Death: 68
 Missing: 1
Residents seriously suffer from the earthquake
Photos from websites

 DamagedDdhhouses: 37
37,921921
 Evacuee: 10
10,477477
Serious problems with repeating earthquakes

M6 5 (14 Apr
M6.5
Apr.),) M7.3M7 3 (16 Apr
Apr.))
Surprisingly, the latter one was larger !

YS1
スライド 9YS1

14 April 2016 21:26 M6.5

16 April 2016 01:25 M7.3

15 April 2016 00:03 M6.4

16 April 2016 03:55 M5.8

Yasuhiro SUZUKI, 2016/05/13

1,500 earthquakes during 1 month

Active Faults in Japan

Active Faults on Kyushu Island
F k kFukuokaTokyo

NagoyaAso Volcano

Kobe

Kumamoto

Futagawa ‐ Hinagu Fault

https://gbank.gsj.jp/activefault/

https://gbank.gsj.jp/activefault/

Earthquakes in Succession

Active faults around the city of Kumamoto city

Minami Aso

Kumamoto
Mashiki

crack
crack

crack

View of the Aso Volcanic Area

Landslide destroyed the bridge

Aso bridge as of 12 July 2015

Ruptures running toward the village

Right lateral offset of 1.2 m

Rupture of earthquake fault running toward the residential area

Houses just on the earthquake faults

Double deck houses just on the earthquake faults

Earthquake faults in Minami Aso area

Earthquake faults in Minami Aso area

Collapsed Houses in the vicinity of the earthquake fault

Cars turned over on their sides close to the active fault

Active faults around the city of Kumamoto city

Minami Aso

Kumamoto
MashikiOffset of an underground path

Active Fault Map on the Website

Branching fault in the Mashiki town

Branching fault in the Mashiki town

Branching fault in the Mashiki townContents
Current status of Earthquake DisasterRi k Reduction
Risk
R d ti in
i Mongolia
Mli• Seismicity in MongoliaqDisaster Risk
• Current Status of Earthquake
Reduction (DRR) Research• Current Status of Earthquake Disaster Risk
Reduction Measure• Conclusion

SERJMYADAG. D, PhD
y, Disaster Research Institute,, NEMA
Scientific secretary,
Lieutenant colonel

International Workshop on Resilience Research
16 May 2016

Seismicity in
Mongolia

Seismicity
y in
Mongolia

2003.09.27
M=7.3

1905.07.23
M=8.2
1905.07.09
M=7.6

Figure 1. Tectonic setting of Mongolia, and Ulaanbaatar, within the wider India
IndiaEurasia collision zone (from Vergnolle, et al., 2007).
Green circles show locations for the 1905, 1931, and 1957 earthquakes.

Last century, several strong
continental seismic events took
place in Mongolia.

1957.12.04
M=8.1
1967.01.05
M=7.8
1931.08.10
M=8.0

Source: Research Institute of
Astronomy and Geophysics

Source: Research Institute of
Astronomy and Geophysics

1998.09.24
M=5.4

1903.02.01
M=7 5
M=7.5

Seismicity in
Ul b
Ulaanbaatar
cityiEarthquake Disaster Risk Reduction Research in Mongolia• 1957, International Geophysical YearUB City is undergoing rapid anduncontrolled urbanization, with the
population having approximately doubled
in the last 10 years to 1.3 million.

A great earthquake of Gobi-Altay took place at 1957-12-04, 03:37 UTC
with magnitude 8,1.

Seismicity in UB city (2005-2005)

From left side:
A.P. Vinogradov ,E. Baljinnyam , D. Munkhuu,
N V Shebalin
N.V.

Seismic observation network ofMongolia

Source: Research Institute of
Astronomy and Geophysics

Source: Research Institute of
Astronomy and Geophysics

Status of Earthquake DRR Research in Mongolia, 2011-2015
Research organization classification on EDRR

Disaster management phase

Institute under National Academy of
Science

Pre Disaster•Prevention
P
i & Risk
Ri k Reduction
R d i• Risk assessment•Structural mitigation• Resistant construction• Building codes and Regulatory
measures• Structural modification• Detection system•Non structural mitigation• Regulatory measure• CommunityC
it awareness• Behavior change•Preparedness•DM planning•Exercise•Training•Equipment•Legislation•Public education

D i Di
DuringDisastert•Warning•Search & Rescue•Evacuation
Relief•Relief

Post Disaster•Reconstruction•Rehabilitation•Research Institute of Astronomy andGeophysics•Research Institute of Geology and Geo
ecologyThi studyThist d
15 measures

Researchh IInstitutions
R
i i
under
d
Government Agency•Disaster Research Institute, NEMA
•Construction Development Center•Health Department of the Capital City

University
8 organizations•School of Construction and Architecture
Mongolian Uni
University
ersit of Science andTechnology•Department of Geography, National
University Mongolia,•School of Emergency management, Law
Enforcement Universityy

NGO an International organizations•Red Cross•World Bank
•ADB
•World Vision•JICA•National center of Disaster Response

Trend of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction Research in
M
Mongolia,
li 2011-2015
2011 2015
Earthquake DRR research by Disaster Management phases 12108Many research: risk assessment, structural mitigation
Less research: community preparedness
642• Prevention & Risk Reduction: 170research• Risk assessment (6)• Structural mitigation (7)• Non structural mitigation (4)•Preparedness:Pd
5 researchh•Government preparedness (4)•Community preparedness (1)Preparedness
Mitigation
Risk assessment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Earthquake DRR research by DRR measures

Health Department of the Capital city
National center for Disaster response
JICA
World Vision
World Bank
School of Construction and Architecture…
Disaster Research Institute, NEMA

Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics
0

Risk assessment

1

Mitigation

2

3

4

5

6

Preparedness

Earthquake DRR research by Research Organization

Status of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia- The Sendai framework for disaster risk
reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR)- The state policy on disaster protection,
Resolution # 22, of The State Ikh Khural,
Mongolia, 2011
- The national programme on strengthening
disaster protection capacity, Resolution # 22,of the State Ikh Khural, Mongolia, 2011
e national
at o a p
programmeog aeoof community
co
u ty
- The
participatory disaster risk reduction, The
Resolution #303 of The Government of Mongolia,
2015

Institutional and regulatory environment on
Earthquake DRR

Earthquake Disaster Prevention
Standingg Committee
Chair： Vice Prime Minister‐ Earthquake Disaster National
Capacity Strengthening Plan
2011–2015,
2011
2015, Resolution # 95, of The
Government of Mongolia, 2011
‐ Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Risk
Reduction Plan, 2016–2020 Resolution # …,of TheGovernment of Mongolia, 2016

Status of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia
Analysis on Earthquake Disaster National Capacity Strengthening Plan, 2011–2015

St t off E
StatusEarthquakethk DRR measures in
i 2011-2015
2011 2015
Many measure: structural
mitigation, exercise, legislation• Prevention & Risk Reduction: 34 measures
Less measure: risk assessment, planning, public• Risk assessment ((2))
education,di
warningi• Structural mitigation (20)• Non structural mitigation (12)number of measures
Preparedness: 92 measures•Preparedness:
Warning•Government preparedness (67)
Behaviour change•Community preparedness (25)
Public education

Legislation
Equipment
Training
Exercise
Planning
Non structural mitigation
Structural mitigation
Risk assessment

Emergency Management
Departments of Capital cityand provinces0

Status of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia
Analysis on Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Risk Reduction Plan, 2016–2020

Trends of EarthquakeqDRRmeasures in 2016-2020

5

10

15

Current status of Earthquake DRR in Mongolia•

Most Earthquake DRR activity focused on government preparedness

Many measure: structural mitigation,
non structural mitigation, equipment
Less measure: risk assessment, training, exercise• Prevention
Pti & Risk
Ri k Reduction:
R d ti28 measures• Risk assessment (3)number of measures• Structural mitigation (15)Warning• Non str
structural
ct ral mitigation (10)Behaviour change
Public education•Preparedness: 29 measures
Legislation•Government preparedness (17)Equipment
qu p e•CommunityCi preparedness
d(12)
Training

Community preparedness
Government preparedness

Earthquake DRR
measure 2016-2020
Earthquake DRR
measure 2011-2015
Earthquake DRR
Research 2011-2015

Non structural mitigation

Exercise
Planning
Non strstructural
ct ral mitigation
Structural mitigation
Risk assessment

Structural mitigation
Risk assessment
0

5

10

15

20

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

25

30

Conclusion

Conclusion
In 2011-2015:• High seismic active faults have a both in surrounding UBcity and in the western part of Mongolia.
• Earthquake observation study has been developing from1957 in Mongolia.
• Earthquakeqdisaster risk reduction research is now jjust
started in Mongolia.
• Many earthquake DRR research focused on risk
assessment, structurall mitigation
ii i• Less earthquake DRR research focused on community
preparedness••

In 2016-2020:
Many Earthquake DRR measures will be focus on structural
mitigation, non structural mitigation and equipment
 Less Earthquake DRR measures will be focus on risk assessment,
training and exercise





Thank
a you
you.

Many Earthquake DRR measures related to structural mitigation,
mitigation
exercise and legislation
Less Earthquake DRR measures related to risk assessment,planning, public education and warning

Most Earthquake DRR activity were focused on government preparedness
Most important thing is to improve community preparedness in Mongolia.

Background of study

Assessing water quality of Sugnugur,
Gatsuurt and Kharaа rivers using
macroinvertebrate communities

Irmuunzaya Kh.
Master of Environmental Science• Studies in the Kharaa and adjoining river basinsshow that gold mining is a major polluter (Chalov etal., 2012; Thorslund et al., 2012) and that it
drastically affects the ecology of diatom,
macrozoobenthos and fish communities (Kratz etal., 2010; Saulyegul, 2011).
• WWTP cleans wastewater up to 90%, mostly
however, lower than 90%. The capacity of WWTP isactually to clean 50 000 m3 of wastewater, but
nowadays only 15 000-17 000 m3 are provided(Batimaa P., Erdenebayar Ya. 2013).

Ulaanbaatar, 2016

What are macroinvertebrates?

 Organisms that lack a backbone and can be seen
with the naked eye such as aquatic insects,
mollusks and crustaceans The organisms that we will be sampling for are
benthic macroinvertebrates – macros that live inthe substrate, or bottom, of a water body Macros live in various stream habitats and derive
their oxygen from the water These organisms are impacted by all the stresses
that occur in a stream environment, both manmade and naturally occurring

Study purpose• To identify the impact of mining activities andwastewater treatment plants on river water
quality using macroinvertebrate community
structure

Objectives• To measure and analyze some important
physicochemical parameters• To identify the macroinvertebrate community
structure
• To
study
the
correlation
betweenphysicochemicalparametersandmacroinvertebrate communities

Sampling sites

Study methods•••

Field studyСөгнөгөрБатсүмбэр, ТөваймагГацуурт- Түнхэл
тосгон, Сэлэнгэ
аймагХараа голДархан хот,Дархан-Уулаймаг

1. Measuring of some physicochemicalparameters of water
2. Sampling of macroinvertebrates
ДLaboratory study
1. Measuring of nutrients amount ofwater
2. Determination of macroinvertebrates

Data processing

Physicochemicals parameters
30

300

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_up
Kharaa_up

Kharaa_down_1

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_down

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_down

Sugnugur

Gatsuurt_up

Sugnugur

9.0

20

8.5
18

8.0
pH

16
14

7.5

12

7.0

10

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_up

Gatsuurt_mid

8
Gatsuurt_down• A canonical correspondence analysis (CCA)

22

Temperature• Correlations based on the Spearman’s correlation
coefficient (rs)Kharaa_down_2• Cluster analysis are a way to assess and identify many
variables by their similarity

Kharaa_down_1

0
Kharaa_up

0• Evenness Index: E =Kharaa_WWTP

100

Gatsuurt_mid

10

Gatsuurt_down

200

Sugnugur20

Gatsuurt_up

EC

400

Gatsuurt_up• Shannon-Wiener Index: H = -∑

500

40

Sugnugur• Oneway-ANOVA differences of macroinvertebrate
structure and environmental parameters between sites

Turbidity• All variables were tested for normal distribution

50

Gatsuurt_up

Analysis:

6.5

Shannon Index
Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_WWTP

0.0

Macroinvertebrate community structure

0.0
0.00

SC=Scraper, SH=Shredder, PR=Predator, CF=Collecter-filterer, CG=Collector-gatherer

Kharaa_down_2

250

Kharaa_down_1

0

Kharaa_WWTP

4

Kharaa_up

0.05

6

Gatsuurt_down

0.10

8

Gatsuurt_mid

0.20

NNumber of taxon

Number of individuals

0.0

Kharaa_down_2

0.2

Kharaa_down_1

10

Kharaa_WWTP

0.8

Kharaa_up

12

Gatsuurt_down

14

1.0

Gatsuurt_mid

1.2

Gatsuurt_up

6

Number of taxon

0.4

Sugnugur

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_up

12

Gatsuurt_up

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_down

NH4
0.6

Sugnugur

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_down_1

1.0

Kharaa_down_1

0.25

Kharaa_up

2.0

Kharaa_up

2.5

Gatsuurt_mid

0.30

Gatsuurt_down

0.35

3.0

Gatsuurt_down

3.5

Gatsuurt_up

4

Gatsuurt_up

Sugnugur

8

Gatsuurt_mid

Sugnugur

1.5
PO4

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_up

Gatsuurt_down

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_up

SugnugurDO
10

Gatsuurt_up

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_up

Gatsuurt_down

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_up

Sugnugur

NO3

14

Sugnugur

0.8

Shannon index

Kharaa_down_2

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_WWTP

Kharaa_up

Gatsuurt_down

Gatsuurt_mid

Gatsuurt_up

Sugnugur

Evenness index

Physicochemicals parameters
1.4

Macroinvertebrate community structure• 8 orders
27 families
40 genera• 3 other classes = 3295
individuals

2300

Number of individuals

200

150

0.15

100

0.5

50

0

Functional feeding group

1.0

0.6

Evenness index

0.4

0.2

0.0
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Compositions of functional feeding groups at the eight sampling sites. A-Sugnugur, B-Gatsuurt,
C-Kharaa

Similarity of macroinvertebrate community
Transform: Square root
Resemblance: S17 Bray Curtis similarity

Relationships between environmental
parameters & communities

Gatsuurt_down

Gatsuurt_up

Spearman’s Rank Correlation:

Gatsuurt_mid

Kharaa_down_2• Turbidity (NTU) & Individual number (p=0.04, rs=(-0.405))• EC (S/m) & Individual number (p=0.01, rs=(-0.489))

Kharaa_down_1

Kharaa_WWTP• NH4+(mg/L) & Individual number (p=0.01, rs=(-0.507))• DO (mg/L) & Shannon Index (p=0.03, rs=0.430)

Kharaa_up

Sugnugur
20

40

60
Similarity %

80

100

1.0

Canonical correspondence analysis:
PLE-Agnetina

Sug_M

Discussion& Conclusions

EPH-Baetis
Turbidity

TRI-Brachycentrus

Heptagen

DIP-Chironomini,

DO
NH4

Diura

Kh_W
Kh_down_ Kh_up
Kh_down_

PLE-Diura

Kh_up

EPH-Epeorus

CCA axis 2

Siphlonu
PO4
EC Hydropsy Baetis Kh_W
Kh_up Rhitroge
Gats_down
Agnetina Temp
Potamant
Limnephi
Ephemere Kh_down_
Rhyacoph
Leptocer
Brachyce
Serratel Chironom Gats_up
Gats_down
Epeorus
Gats_down

Gats_mid
Gats_mid

EPH-Ephemerella,
EPH-Heptagenia
TRI-Hydropsyche,
TRI-Leptocerus,

Sug_S
Sug_J

TRI-Limnephilus,

NO3

EPH-Potamanthus,

Gats_mid

EPH-Rhitrogenia,
EPH-Rhyacophila,-1.0

EPH-Serratella,-1.0

CCA axis 1

1.0

EPH-Siphlonurus• EC, turbidity, water t0 and the concentrations ofNH4+ , PO43- of Sugnugur river were low, while
DO was high, and the pH showed alkalinity (6.77.4). Regarding biodiversity ofmacroinvertebrates numbers of genera,
individuals, index of diversity and evenness werehigher than at other points of study. As
demonstrated by cluster analysis it was very
different from other studied rivers.

Discussion& Conclusions• EC of Gatsuurt River was lower than at
sampling points of Kharaa, Turbidity and watert0 were low here, pH showed more alkalinity
and some nutrients had no big difference, butmacroinvertebrate community structure isdifferent from the reference river. Shannon
index and the numbers of macroinvertebrate
genera in Gatsuurt _mid sampling were thelowest of all sample points, while individual
number was quite low. All these indicators showthat Gatsuurt is highly impacted by human(mining activities) at midstream.

Thanks to:• My dear teachers Dr. M.Pfeiffer & Dr. D.Narangarvuu
for all valuable advices and encouragement• Friends B.Gunsmaa & B.Bolortuya for help during fieldwork• Students of School of Sciences and Arts
O.Narantsatsral & S.Namjilmaa for help during
identification of the macroinvertebrates• Mrs. B.Buyankhand for encouragement during mystudy• My family for eternal support, love and inspiration

Discussion& Conclusions• EC, turbidity and water t0 were higher at Kharaa than in
Sugnugur River, while DO of Kharaa was lower than Sugnugur,
almost similar to Gatsuurt River and nutrients were higher thanin other rivers. However, number of individuals is less, there wasno big difference of genera number and index of diversity as well
as evenness. It shows there could be an impact of WWTP
Darkhan compared to Kharaa_up point, upstream of WWTP. It
can be said from all the indicators that self-purification process
distance of Kharaa is short, there is a fact, this process takes
about 10 km at Kharaa.

Thank you for your attention!

Content
Content
Adaptation or Resilience for Dzud
Miti ti in
i Mongolia?
Mli ?
Mitigation• Background – dzud, adaptation, and resilience• Previous
P istudiesdi• Methodology• Results

Ch.Ariunaa
NEMA Mongolia
16 May 2016

Dzud
D d

• References

Wh ?
Why?

M
Mongolianli termt
f an extremelyfortl snowy winteri t
g numbers of livestock die due toin which large
starvation by being unable to graze, and the cold.

+ Drought+ El Nino+ Knowledge+ Global
warming¥climate change+ Capacity• Limitationsi i+ Institutions

Year

Type of disaster

1944‐45

Dzud +Drought

1954‐55Dzud

1956‐57

Dzud

1967‐68

Dzud +Drought

1976‐77

Dzud

1986‐87

Dzud

1993 94
1993‐94Dzud

1996‐97

Dzud

1999‐00g
Dzud +Drought

2000‐01

Dzud +Drought

2001‐02

Dzud +Drought

2009‐10Dzud +Drought

2015‐16

Dzud

Why?

Adaptation• Adaptation is the set of actions, attitudes, activities, anddecisions that enable individuals, groups, or systems to persist
in the face of current or future change or shocks.
• Fernandez
Fernandez‐Gimenez
Gimenez et al.,al 2015• The adjustment in natural or human systems in response toactual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
• UNISDR Terminology on DRR, 2009

• Adaptation to climate change is the process of natural andhuman systems adapting to changing environmental andclimatic conditions. It includes measures taken by natural andanthropogenic systems in order to reduce the potential harmcaused by climate change or to maximize the positive impacts
of current and expected climate change.
• National Action Program on Climate Change, 2012

R ili
Resilience

P iPrevious
studiesdi• The ability of a system, community or society exposed to• Many researcher and scholars have studied dzud as a natural

hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover fromthe effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient mannermanner,including through the preservation and restoration of its
essential basic structures and functions.
• UNISDR Terminology on DRR, 2009

• Resilience is a system’s ability to maintain its basic structure,

ffunctionti andd ididentity
tit iin th
the fface off shocks
h k andd changes—toht
recover and reorganize following a major perturbation such as
dzud. A fundamental characteristic of resilient systems is theircapacity to learn, adapt and “live with change.”• Fernandez‐Gimenez et al., 2011

phenomenon including meteorological characteristics and its
impacts on livestock population,
population the herder families andcountry’s economy, the government role to respond andrecoveryy the dzud,, as well as relativelyy few studies havefocused, in depth, on adaptation and resilience in Mongolian
pastoral system.

• Manyy rooms for the studyy on adaptationp
to andbuilding resilience for dzud are still available
available..

M h d l
Methodology

R l
Results• Objectives:• Mixed‐methods approachpp
employingp y g qqualitative• Existingg adaptationpand resilience approachespp
in dzud in Mongoliagand quantitative data collection and analysis
techniques

will be identified and examined in order to determine whichapproaches work exceptionally in our case study,
study dzud.
dzud• interviews, using a combination of closed and open‐endedqquestionsand analyzing
y g the responsesp
to draw conclusions,,• focus groups, household questionnaires,• and document review, etc.

• The new and applicable methods and tools of adaptation andresilience could be identified,
identified introduced and recommended at theend of the study.

Li i i
Limitations

References• Alassane Drabo & Linguère Mously Mbaye, Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Migration: An Empirical Analysis in

Developing Countries, IZA Discussion Paper No. 5927, 2011
• Benoît Mayer, Managing 'Climate Migration' in Mongolia: The Importance of Development Policies, Book chapter, in

Walter Leal (ed.), Managing Climate Change in the Asia‐Pacific Region, Springer, 2015, pp. 191‐204• Charlotte Benson, Dzud Disaster Financing and Response in Mongolia, Paper prepared for World Bank study onlook at the climate adaptation andcommunity resilience on dzud inMongolia

•
•
•
•

•
•

•
•

Structuring Dzud Disaster Preparation, Financing and Response to Increase Resilience of Herder Households to Climatic
Risk in Mongolia, World Bank, 2011
Gabrielle Wong‐Parodi, Baruch Fischhoff & Benjamin Strauss, Resilience vs. Adaptation: Framing and action, Climate
Risk Management, Volume 10, 2015, Pp. 1–7
Judy L. Baker ed., Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor: Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World,
The World Bank,
Bank Washington,
Washington 2012
Margaret Arnold, Robin Mearns, Kaori Oshima & Vivek Prasad, Climate and Disaster Resilience: The Role forCommunity‐Driven Development, The World Bank Group, Washington, 2014
Marıa E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, B. Batkhishig & B. Batbuyan, Cross‐boundary and cross‐level dynamics increase
vulnerability to severe winter disasters (dzud)() in Mongolia, Global Environmental Change, Volume 22, Issue 4, October
2012, Pp. 836–851
María E. Fernández‐Gimenez, Batbuyan Batjav & Batkhishig Baival, Lessons from the Dzud: Adaptation and Resilience inMongolian Pastoral Social‐Ecological Systems, World Bank, 2012
María E. Fernández‐Gimenez, Baival Batkhishig, Batjav Batbuyan & Tungalag Ulambayar, Lessons from the Dzud:
Community‐Based Rangeland Management Increases the Adaptive Capacity of Mongolian Herders to Winter Disasters,
World Development, Volume 68, 2015, pp. 48‐65
Proceedings of International Symposium on Dzud,
Dzud Second International Symposium of 4D Project
Project, Ulaanbaatar
Ulaanbaatar, 2015
Ybshinobu Nitta, Eiichi Shiga, Isao Kurokawa & Battur Soyollkham, The Impact of Dzud and Dynamic Changes of Nomads
in Mongolia, The Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol.61, 2005, pp. 119‐132

THANK YOU!
Q&A

2/10/2017

Research proposal“Development ofon‐ and off‐grid
renewable energy inMongolia”

2/10/2017

Contents

Government policy related to RE• Energy Sector in Mongolia• The Parliament and the Government of Mongolia approved• In 2015 328 soum’s connected to the grid (from 334)gand Objectives
jof the Studyy• Backgroundgon Climate Change
g 2011‐2021• National Action Program

3 7 energy
gy loss from the gridg
• 13.7%• Renewable Energy in Mongolia• National Program on Renewable Energy 2005‐2020• Proposed study• Green Development Policy 2014

• Methodology• Program on Integrated Energy System of Mongolia• Research Points• Energy Policy in Mongolia 2015

• Methods of data collection• RE Law 2015

General information• 14.4% PPs using their own operation• GER Area: Informal settlement where no basic urban services• Household burn row coal for heating and cooking• Contributes 60% to UB air pollution

Tulga Mendjargal

2

16.05.2016

CURRENT STATE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN
MONGOLIA
EnergySource +ImportPower Plant

87%

77.7%

• Altai‐Uliastai energy system

Small scale
RE

0.62%

• Dalanzadgad energy system

Diesel fuel

6%

0.6%

Wind park

4%

0.8%

Hydro PP2%

• Western Energy System• Eastern Energy system• Total 965 MW (without OT 150MW)

Import3

16.05.2016

5

16.05.2016

Intergrated power system

Installedenergy• Central energy
gy systemyResearch proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

616.05.2016

Background and significanceResearch proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Ger areas in Ulaanbaatar• Difficulties to supply the rural population with electricity

Total: 965MW
Salkhit 50 MW
7 PP

In Summer 83% of households usey for cooking
gelectricity

g y dependentp
on indigenousgcoal and importedpoil• Strongly

In winter 92% of households use
g and cookinggstoves for heating• Centralized electricity supply for soum center is not economically viable
Total: 32MW
Dorgon HPP 12 MW
Import from Russia• Depending on the region solar, wind and hydro power can be used for power• Rural centers and mines are using diesel engine• 7 coal fired power plants

Total: 336MW• Ger dwarfs and nomads using coal for the heating

0.6%
20.3%

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal• Huge RE sources

Total: 15MW
Taishir HPP 10 MW

416.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

716.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

816.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

12

2/10/2017

2/10/2017

Geothermal energy potential

Hydro power potential

Government plan
• “National Renewableenergy program” and“Green Development
Policy” the Governmentof Mongolia has set thetarget to increaseelectricity generationfrom Renewables:

RENEWABLE
ENERGY• 20% RE in 2020
• 30% RE in 2030

916.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

13

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

1416.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Solar energy potential

RE feed‐in tariff 2007‐2017

Energy Sector in Mongolia – Stake holders
Government• Ministry of Energy

International Organizationsg• JICA• Ministry of Environment, Green
Development and Tourism• JCM• NREC‐ National Renewable Energy Sector• ADB• ERC‐Energy Regulatory Commission• EBRD• NPTG‐ National power Transmission grid

• World Bank

• NDC‐NDC National
N ti
l Di
Dispatchingt hi C
Centert• Thermal power plant’s• Electricity distribution grid11

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

1216.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

153

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

16

16.05.2016• GEF• GGGI

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

42/10/2017

New regulations for RE

Renewable energy license holders• 2016.04.07 Explorative andindustrial equipment, and its
addition
dditi tools,t l spare parts
t off
rechargeable power that exempt
from customs duty and value added
taxWind Energygy• Aydiner Global 50 MW

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

RE sources• IRENA ((International Renewable
Energy Agency)• AB Solar Wind 100 MW• Mon Korea Engineering 8 MW

• Renewable Readiness Assessment

2. No capable of HR• Sainshand Wind Park 52 MW• Solar power International 10 MW• Global Wind & Solar Atlas Initiative• Clean Energy Asia 50 MW• Rural Electrification 10 MW• CIF (Climate Investment Fund)2.1. No proper operation andmaintenance• TBF Energy Zuun 50 MW

1816.05.2016

Wind park Projects

Solar wind diesel hybrid systems
aren’t working. Reasons:

Solar Energygy• Desert Solar Power One 30 MW

1. Connected to the grid2.2. Not enough research• Scaling up Renewable Energy
Program (SREP)• Clean Energy 250Mw• 2015 users, who is using electricity
more than 100 kw/month have to
pay 4MNT/kw for RE fund16.05.2016

Present Studies• ADB Quantum leap

• 2015.12.18 Equipment, tools andaccessories for renewable energy
generation to be exempt from value
added tax and customs duties

17

2/10/2017

TOTAL:610 MW

Wrong technology
Wrong material

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

21

16.05.2016

Renewable energy policy

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Project list in Mongolia• Renewable Energy and Rural
Electricity Access Project (REAP)2006
6• Herders electricity Access• Soum Center Electricity Service• Institutional Capacity Building• Small‐Scale Energy Development inNortheast Asia: Experience,
Prospects and Social Implications ofSolar PV in Mongolia (ERINA)

22

16.05.2016

Proposed research study‐ open

Research• Increase consumption of RE project
2015• JICA Rural power supply(Worldwide)Step
1• Lack of research on:• Biomass• Geothermal energy

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

20

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Goal

Goal‐
West energy system• Research off grid energy system• Increase 30 MW with RE• Diesel to hybrid systems (Environmental friendly)• Houses ‐ Solar panels (independent electricity)• Houses – Geothermal energy

23

16.05.2016

Goal ‐UB• Research off grid energy system• To cut the operational cost
• Officesff
are mainly working during thedays• Environmental friendly

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

24

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

16.05.2016

Research Points

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Analysis of Data collection of energy demand

PRELIMINARY SURVEY• Research area

• Analysis
y of the load and energy
gy productionp• Research of Energy supply and demand in remote locations (rural areas)• Research of Energy supply and demand in mining area
• Research of Energy demand of industry or office building in the city

• Load of resident• Load of factory• Load of mining company• Mine campuses in the rural areas• Mining energy demand in rural areas (mines with and without processing plant)• Energy consumptions calculation of diesel engine in rural areas• Environmental study of investigation area

• Weather forecasts• Environmental problems like used batteries, clean technology• Land issue of mining licensed companies• Reduce CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

29

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Methodology (for analyzing off‐grid electricity
supply)Advisors• Worksheet‐based tools (Rural Renewable Energy Analysis and Design Tool)• Energy:ptools to identifyy and design
g the least‐cost optionp• Optimization

j j‐ Ph.D ULAM‐ORGIL Chojiljav• Multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) tools (environment)

28

Connection to
the grid

From stand‐alone
system savingenergy of officebuildings in thecity

2/10/2017• System‐based participatory tools• Mining:• Hybrid approaches‐ Ph.D BUYANKHISHIG Nemer

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

31

716.05.2016• Analysis
y of pprevious made documents and related international studies andpapers30

16.05.2016

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal• Associate Professor, Power Engineering School,
Mongolian University of Science and Technology,
Member of Science and technology committee in
Ministry off Energy, Memberb off Institute off Energy
and Economics• Vice president School of Geology and Mining
Engineering, Mongolia University Science andTechnology• Technology and management:

27

Step
4

2/10/2017• Solar and Wind

16.05.2016

Possibility ofstand‐alone
system of officebuildings in thecity

6• Research off grid energy system

26

Step
3

CO2 & GHG

DETAILED SURVEY

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

Rural areas, suchas mining andsoums
sustainableenergy withhybrid energy
systems.

Identifydf previous
problems• Stand‐alone system in remote locations (mining area, soums)• Possibility of stand‐alone system or energy saving of office buildings in the city
• Hybrid wind or solar systems with diesel engine• Research of Energy system development and grid connected home energy system fromstand‐alone system• Research of equipment and technology

16.05.2016

Step
2

5

• Diesel to hybrid systems (Environmental friendly)• Camps and soums ‐ Clean energy

25

Biomass

Geothermalenergy• Rural Electrification & Renewable
Energy Utilization in Mongolia 2005

19

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal‐ Sc.D TSETSGEE Bayasgalan• Associate Professor, Graduate school of Business,
Mongolian University of Science and Technology‐ Ph.D GANCHIMEG Jamsran• Associate Professor, Graduate school of Business,
Mongolian University of Science and Technology

Thank you for yourattention!
Question?

Research proposal “Development of on‐ and off grid renewable energy in Mongolia” by Tulga Mendjargal

8

2




 Bachelor of Science (Land management), National University of Mongolia,
Ulaanbaatar,, Mongolia,
g , 1999 ‐ 2003.

 “Seminar on Inter‐City Cooperation Platform for Sustainable Cities: Urban Profile andChallenges”,
g , JICA,, Tokyoy and Toyama,y, Japan,p , ((Oct 21 – 30,, 2015))

 Master of Science (Urban land use planning), National University of Mongolia,
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2004 ‐ 2006.

 “New town development, construction and labour management”, KOICA, Republic ofKorea, (May 31 – June 20, 2015)
 “I“Intelligentt lli t city
it – InnovativeIti solutions
l ti
f megacities
for
iti tomorrowt(S(Smartt cityit ‐ Berlin)”,
B li )”
Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Federal Republic of Germany, (May 18‐23, 2015)

 Master of Engineering (Urban redevelopment, Land readjustment and International
development engineering), Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan, 2009 ‐ 2011.

 “Affordable housing policy”, Housing Corporation, Anchorage city, Alaska State, Chicago
city, IllinoisllState, United
d States off America, (March‐April,(hl 2014)) “Urban planning”, International Urban Training Center, Gangwong province, Republic ofKorea, (November 21‐30, 2012) Land manager in charge of urban land use planning, Urban Planning, Research and
Design Institute of Ulaanbaatar Municipality, 2004‐2007.

 “Strengthening and use of country safeguard systems – regional workshop”, AsianDevelopment Bank, Philippines, (April 17‐20, 2012) Officer in charge of regional and urban planning, Ministry of Road, Transport,
C t ti andConstruction
d UrbanU b Development,D lt 2007‐2012.
2007 2012

 “Comprehensive
Comprehensive city planningplanning”, Tokyo International Center,
Center JICA,
JICA Japan,
Japan (August 25 ‐October 30, 2007)

 Senior officer in charge of land affairs, Ministry of Construction and Urban
Development, 20122012‐recent.
recent.

 “Seminar on economic development and planning analysis of cities and towns fordeveloping nations
nations”, Ministry of Commerce,
Commerce People
People`ss Republic of China,
China (March 31 ‐ April
21, 2007)
3

4

80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

ウランバートル市ゲル地区における土地区画整理手法の適用と評価
プレブドルジ エンフマンダフ

2002

2000



Out‐migration

2001



In‐migration

Prof. Shinya HANAOKA



Purevdorj ENKHMANDAKH


6

Input

Data from the proposed “Unur‐2” case study area

Willingness of improvement of the Ger area residents
by questionnaire survey
Process

Urban layout planning according to “Mongolian
Norms and Ordinance of Buildingg and Cityy planningpg(BNbD 30.01.04)”
Land value assessment before and after the planning
using “Road side value method”

Output7

Replotting design based on land appraisal of each land lot

8

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

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

Willingness to change dwelling type

“Unur”” G“U
Ger
area‐238 ha

5%Case studyCt d
area‐6.7 ha

9% 2%

4%

67%

Planned
Trunk road(width=39m)

Willingness to involve LR project

Ger
Wooden house
Brick house
Mid‐rise apartment
High‐rise apartment
Detached house

13%

31

Needs of green space by request

12

9

24%

Compensation
3

MediumBad

District park
Open space

31%

Street planting

9%

Grass landMove to another Ger
area

OthersTop prior requirements in living conditions

Worse
28

28
22
18

19

19
17

18

17
14
9

1

9

1

9
Air pollution

No.

1

Noise

Item
Street coefficientRoad width2

Pavement

3

Pedestrian4

Street planting

Waste and odor

Dust

Condition
20m over10‐15m6‐9m
Under 6m
Paved
No pavement
Available
Unavailable
Available
Unavailable

39

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

30

27

Response ofquestionnaire

Share

Coefficient

39

12.4%

1.00

34
32
30
28
27
27
23
17
10
8

10.8%
10.2%
9.6%
8 9%
8.9%
8.6%
8.6%
7.3%
5.4%
3.2%
2.5%

0.87
0.82
0.77
0 72
0.72
0.69
0.69
0.59
0.44
0.26
11
0.21

5

6

7

8

Under 50m
50‐150m
Kiosk (water distributor)
150‐200m
200m over
Under 100m
100‐250m
Daily grocery shop
250‐500m
500m over
Under 100m
100‐250m
Park and greenery
250‐500m
500m over
Under 100m
100‐250m
Bus stop
250‐500m
500m over

34

32

28

27

23
17
8

Road network and street condition improvement

Kiosk (water distributor)

Everyday shopping center

Park, greenery and street planting

Pedestrian

Public transportation (bus stop)

Proper shape of land lot

Street planting

Sewerage provision

Municipal heating service

Elecricity provision

Coefficient
0.9‐1.0
0.7‐0.8
0.5‐0.6
0 3‐0 4
0.3‐0.4
1.00
0.50
0.44
0 22
0.22
0.21
0.10

No. ItemLand coefficient
9

Shape

10 Land use type11 Legal

Access coefficientRoad network withpavementp
Heating
Bus stop
Water supply
Park
Shop
SewageShape
Pedestrian
Electricity
Street planting

Central park
16%

18%

Environmental condition
Good

Indicators

2%

Involvement of the LR
project
Sell land and house

0.80
0
80
0.50
0.10
0.00
0 70
0.70
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.70
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.80
0.70
0.30
0.00

10

10

Condition

Coefficient

Regular

0.59

Irregular

0.29

Commerce

1 00
1.00

Residence

0.57

Ownership

1.00

Possession

0.63

Usage

0.35

No rights

0.00

Available

0.26

Unavailable

0.13

Available

0.87

Unavailable

0.58

Available

0.77

Unavailable

0.54

Available

0.69

Unavailable

0.48

Utility coefficient
12 Electricity
13 Heating
14 Water supply
15 Sewerage

12



BeforeAfterLand use type

Notes
Area (m2)
( 2)

Sh
Share
(%)

Area (m2)
( 2)

Sh
Share
(%)

6080

9.0%

11073

16.5%

Road will be paved after the project.

0

0.0%

4942

7.4%

Paved sidewalks
lk

0

0.0%

3044

4.5%

District level park

14635

21.8%

0

0.0%

EErodedd d llandd iis existingi ti streett t iincluding
l dithe earth road, sidewalk and ravine.

20715

30.8%

19059

28.4%

Private land area

46498

69.2%

40916

62.3%

Ownership

Reserved land area

0

0.0%

7238

9.4%

Public facility and/or financial purpose

67213

100.0%

67213

100.0%

Road
Pedestrian
Public land Park and greeneryarea
E d d lland
Erodedd(municipal area)
Total

Total
13

14

Block ID

Block Value (Before)

Block Value (After)

C1: (Total coefficient) x (Block Area)= 6.34 x 9694m2= 61459.96
R1:26494.10
R2:18948.04
R3:20691.12
R4:39203.92
C2:13905.04
R5:31168.20
R6:31211.76
R7:32143.08

C1: (Total coefficient) x (Block Area)= 9.93 x 8724.6m2= 86635.28
R1:34563.15
R2:24718.86
R3:28060.56
R4:53771.13
C2:21493.29
R5:44690.40
R6:44327.34
R7:46474.02

Total Value = 275225.22

Total Value = 385004.03

C2

Lot ID (Parcel number)61

Lot area (m2)330Road width ((m))

Street CoefficientAccess coefficient

376

622

Totall

65

545

508

2381

4

0.30

4

0.30

4

0.30

4

0.30

1.5

Pavement

none

0.50

none

0.50

none

0.50

none

0.50

none

0.50

2.5

Pedestrian

none

0.22

none

0.22

none

0.22

none

0.22

none

0.22

1.1

Street planting

none

0.10

none

0.10

none

0.10

none

0.10

none

0.10

0.5

Kiosk‐water distributor (m)

150

0.70

180

0.70

180

0.70

180

0.70

160

0.70

3.5

Daily shop (m)

310

0.30

310

0.30

330

0.30

350

0.30

370

0.20

1.4

Park and greenery (m)

none

0 00
0.00

none

0 00
0.00

none

0 00
0.00

none

0 00
0.00

none

0 00
0.00

0

Bus stop (m)

500m
over

0.00

Shape

none

0.29

none

0.29

none

residence

0.57

residence

0.57

owned

1.00

owned

1.00

Electricity

connected 0.26500m over 0.00 500m over 0.00 500m over 0.00
0.29

none

residence

0.57

possess

0.63500m over 0.00

0.29

none

residence

0.57

owned

1.00

connected 0.26 connected 0.26 connected

0.26

0

0.29

1.45

residence

0.57

2.85

owned

1.00

4.63

connected 0.26

1.3

Heating

none

0.58

none

0.58

none

0.58

none

0.58

none

0.58

2.9

Water supply

none

0.54

none

0.54

none

0.54

none

0.54

none

0.54

2.7

Sewerage

none

0.48

none

0.48

none

0.48

none

0.48

none

0.48

2.4

5.74

28.73

Total lot coefficient
15

64

0.30

Legal

Value Increase = 385004.03 / 275225.22 = 1.399

63

4

Land coefficient Land use typeUtility coefficient62

Lot value

5.84
1927.205.84
2195.845.47
3402.345.84
3182.802915.92

1613624.10

Block ID

C2

L ID (Parcel
Lot(P
l number)
b )

61

62

63

64

65

Land value of per lot (Lot value after project)

2979

3394

5259

4920

4507

Road width (m)St t Coefficient
StreetC ffi i t

Pavement

38

1.00 available

1.00

38

1.00

38

1.00

38

1.00

5

1.00

available

1.00

available

1.00

available

1.00

5Pedestrianavailable

0.44 available

0.44

available

0.44

available

0.44

available

0.44

2.2

available

0.21 available

0.21

available

0.21

available

0.21

available

0.21

1.05

none

0.00

none

0.00

none

0.00

none

0.00

none

0.00

0

10

0.70

10

0.70

10

0.70

10

0.70

10

0.70

3.5

20

0.70

20

0.70

40

0.70

60

0.70

80

0.70

3.5

10

0.80

10

0.80

10

0.80

10

0.80

10

0.80

4

Shape

positive

0 59
0.59

positive

0 59
0.59

positive

0 59
0.59

positive

0 59
0.59

positive

0 59
0.59

2 95
2.95

Land use typecommerce 1.00 commerce 1.00 commerce 1.00 commerce 1.00 commerce 1.00

5

Access coefficient Daily shop (m)Park and greenery (m)Bus stop (m)Utility coefficient

1.00

21059

Street planting
Kiosk‐water distributor (m)Land coefficient38
available



Total

Legal

owned

1.00

owned

1.00

owned

1.00

owned

1.00

owned

1.00

5

Electricity

available

0 26 available
0.26

0 26
0.26

available

0 26
0.26

available

0 26
0.26

available

0 26
0.26

13
1.3

Heatingavailable

0.87 available

0.87

available

0.87

available

0.87

available

0.87

4.35

Water supply

available

0.77 available

0.77

available

0.77

available

0.77

available

0.77

3.85

Sewerageavailable

0.69 available

0.69

available

0.69

available

0.69

available

0.69

3.45

10.03

10.03

10.03

50.15

Total lot coefficient

10.03

10.03

Land area to be distributed (m2)

297.0

338.4

524.3

490.5

449.4

Contribution area (m2)

33.0

37.6

97.7

54.5

58.6

281.4

Contribution ratio (%)

10 0%
10.0%

10 0%
10.0%

15 7%
15.7%

10 0%
10.0%

11 5%
11.5%

11 8%
11.8%

Lot value befor the project
Lot area before the project (m2)

1927.202195.84

3402.34

3182.80

330

376

622

545

2915.92
508





AFTER

BEFORE

2099.613624.10
17

18

2381






land market pricelandacquisition price No exact valuation systemunstablelack of land value assessment

methodology

negotiation



suitability
i bili analysis
l i

qualitative

economicconsensus building

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zoning
1920

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