「最優秀賞」の英訳は23ページからはじまり、19ページで終ります。
The English translation of the Grand Prize essay begins on page 23 and ends on page 19.
GRAND PRIZE (Fuji Seiji Prize)

The World and Japan After the Ukraine War: What are Japanʼs Values as One Power in a Multipolar Era?

The World and Japan After the
Ukraine War
What are Japanʼs Values as One
Power in a Multipolar Era?
Yoshiaki Yano (73)
Chairman of the Japan Forum of Security (JAFOS)

It seems increasingly likely that the Ukraine war will end with a Russian victory. In the resulting world order, we can expect a
relative decline in Western power, leading to a multipolar era.
This essay analyzes the major factors for multipolarization and gives a perspective of future global trends to explore how
Japan can survive as one of these poles, and what values it should share with the world.
Geopolitical advantages of continental nations in a multipolar world
A Russian military victory would signify the defeat of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that supported Ukraine.
Above all, it would be a loss for the Joe Biden administration in the United States, bringing an end to America’s unipolar                      
immigration, as well as political instability.
A Russian win could bring continental nations into greater prominence. This includes Russia itself, which would leverage this         !    "          #   close ties with Russia and is leader of the “Global South.”
Even Middle Eastern and African nations that are friendly with the U.S. would distance themselves from the West. Regional
powers, such as Brazil, would establish a greater presence.
Behind this shifting balance of global power, we can name several major factors as described below.
 "    
The dominance of modern Western civilization was founded on its military strength that allowed it to cross oceans,symbolized by large, artillery-equipped naval vessels. It came into power starting during the Age of Discovery led by Spain andPortugal.
$     %           &   ' ' "  place between these continental powers in Europe.
Britain, an island nation, maintained equilibrium between European powers while making them fight each other, which
diminished the strength they could have drawn on to advance into the ocean. Britain devoted its power to expanding maritime
hegemony and successfully built a global colonial empire.
All these hegemons were empires with overseas colonies. They sent armadas across the seas to regions with abundant   *             
        shipped back to the colonizers, who made huge sums of money through trade. They built colonial empires by further investing
this wealth in their navies, then sending them to colonize new areas.
 + /      % % ##          
 ! %      /
Union collapsed. Some predicted the “end of history” in the 1990s, a new world order in which the entire globe became a freedemocratic society with a market economy of the American type.
This forecast has not come true. Rather, a new, multipolar era has arrived, as I mentioned previously.

23 ● 謀略に！翻弄された近現代 誇れる国、日本〔 〕

「最優秀賞」の英訳は23ページからはじまり、19ページで終ります。
The English translation of the Grand Prize essay begins on page 23 and ends on page 19.

Innovative military technology has brought back advantages for continental nations
This situation is backed by innovations in military technology, such as long-range, precision-guided munitions and global
networks for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).
#/2                  3       4
can be used to monitor, assess, and pursue objects in real time, as long as they are larger than dozens of centimeters.
#/2              3!5#4       "  36#4 7      8  8   
Accordingly, these missiles and other weapons can precisely strike any target in a time span of a few minutes to a few dozen
minutes.
These features are even more remarkable when used for strikes on the ocean and in the air, where there is nowhere to takeshelter. This is why missiles and other weapons can be used to precisely attack targets in the air or on the ocean within several
thousand kilometers of a continental nation’s coast. This is referred to as “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD).
It is believed the Russian military links its ISR network with missiles, artillery, and guns (it has roughly seven to 10 times
more ammunision than the Ukrainian military). Russia has killed and wounded approximately 800,000 to 900,000 Ukrainiansoldiers during this war.
There is a growing risk of concentrated missile and torpedo attacks against large vessels on the ocean, such as American
aircraft carriers. This is why continental nations are making it more challenging for others to approach, even thousands ofkilometers from their coasts.
The threat of missiles and other weapons extends to all the world’s oceans. According to international law, “international =  >        "            
applies in a military sense.
Similar changes can be seen in space and the South Pole, which do not belong to any nation under international treaties. Even        "       
The same is true of the electromagnetic spectrum and cyberspace, where there are constant threats posed by hostile state andnon-state actors, including governments, militaries, and civilians.
It is easy to respond to these threats in one’s own territory, where ground shelters provide concealment from reconnaissanceand monitoring. Underground facilities can be built simply and affordably to protect against guided missiles equipped withweapons of mass destruction (like nuclear, biological, and chemical arms), and against damage caused by radiation, biologicalagents, chemical agents, and the like.
!        ?                 
and easily than maritime nations.
When it comes to control of space, cyberspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum, continental nations are at an advantage
because they have room to build many facilities across a wide area, even underground. These include launch sites, command
posts, headquarters, transmission and tracking facilities, and radars. Maritime nations still have superiority in utilizing the ocean,but in other ways it seems they are at a disadvantage.
Economic advantages of continental nations, including resources, energy, and food
It is predicted that global population expansion and economic growth will make resources, energy, and food more precious,       !           ?        "      
However, resources are frequently found in inland and remote areas, and there are numerous cases of them remaining
undeveloped due to high costs for surveying, mining, and transport.
Resource development requires ample funds and technological power. Ownership rights belong to continental nations where
resources are found. Maritime nations must either depend on imports from resource-rich countries or must provide funds andtechnologies to obtain the right to use these resources, including cooperation to mine them.
However, maritime nations have latent potential for accessing vast amounts of marine resources. They would require       "   "              ?  
uranium from seawater.
Most of the world’s population resides in continental nations, which have the economic potential to grow into gigantic
production centers and consumer markets. It is reasonable to say there is future potential in areas like South Asia and Africa,
which are undergoing remarkable population growth.
#               %            
populations, and more widespread education. To resolve this, an overdependence on immigration would lead to worsening publicorder, social division, and political confrontation.

謀略に！翻弄された近現代

誇れる国、日本〔 〕● 22

「最優秀賞」の英訳は23ページからはじまり、19ページで終ります。
The English translation of the Grand Prize essay begins on page 23 and ends on page 19.
GRAND PRIZE (Fuji Seiji Prize)

The World and Japan After the Ukraine War: What are Japanʼs Values as One Power in a Multipolar Era?

%                    
strength, resources, energy, food, population, and economic vitality. In the coming era, it is estimated that continental nations will
have a superior position while maritime nations will lose their geopolitical advantages, which were part of the driving force bywhich European powers gained global control in the modern era.
The West declines in strength as old civilizations are revived
The second major factor is the rise and fall of civilizations.
%  >    $  3  @  !    4  $  3C 4 /  2    >F         K   #         "it gained control and became the preeminent region of global civilization by overpowering and colonizing ancient civilizations,  #    #  ! 
However, new waves of multipolarization may revive these older civilizations.
There are visible signs that Western superiority is waning, even in the sciences and technologies that provided its main
advantages. For instance, many major semiconductor production centers are located in East Asia.
More and more non-Western immigrants are moving to Europe and the U.S. The ratio of people of color is growing as whitebirth rates are falling.
#             %          !   C
civilization, and Roman civilization.
There is also instability in the West’s military superiority. After more than 20 years, the War on Terror ended with the 6    6    6  QVQX +    &6 Y  +     
war would clearly demonstrate the inferior military position of the West.
We can also regard this phenomenon as one that reveals the limits of military predominance by the West when entering into aforeign civilization.
There are also economic instabilities in the U.S. dollar-based currency structure. For instance, news reports say there are          !          + /             / 6  ! Z 8%      C /      8 "       
subjected to American sanctions as seen during the Ukraine war.
The limits of Western universal values
The third primary factor is the issue of values. Western nations have built a political and ethical value system they refer to
as “universal values” – human rights, freedom, equality, and democracy – which are ideals that have existed since the French
Revolution. The question is, should these values be accepted and adopted by non-Western nations?
No, these Western values are not uncritically accepted by many non-Western countries that were previously colonized by
European powers.
For example, some members of the Islamic world believe in political systems based on the concept of divine right to rule.
This ideology explains why Iran is an “Islamic republic.”
 +                K \   8% president who wants Ukraine to join NATO, and President Vladimir Putin, who extolls nationalism.
Putin regained Russia’s resource rights by expelling Western-funded oligarchs who controlled them directly after the collapseof the Soviet Union.
Putin is a Russian nationalist. His thoughts and beliefs align with those of writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, who opposed Soviet         2 F        Y ? !  \        8       + / ^  / 2
Kagan and others hold to an ideology that is rooted in Trotskyism.
Globalists repudiate the inherent national characters of individual countries, as well as their existing family structures,                 "      
global population that has no individual identities. One can say that communism is a type of globalism.
Just like the communists, the Biden administration is manipulated by powers that want a global revolution. When viewing the+        `        2 F    
civilization.
6 2                 ' 2     international trend in which nationalism is revived and civilizations recognize their inherent values anew.

21 ● 謀略に！翻弄された近現代 誇れる国、日本〔 〕

「最優秀賞」の英訳は23ページからはじまり、19ページで終ります。
The English translation of the Grand Prize essay begins on page 23 and ends on page 19.

          

6 @   / ` $   @   { > !    
             >          ocean.
For example, Japan should develop and use areas of the deep underground. It should also develop marine resources,      ?   > 3\4  {     
development to extract uranium and gold from the ocean.
Japan must also improve the survival capabilities of its defense platform to ensure safe ocean and air navigation.
     @                 |  
enabling mutual support. These include long-range precision-guided munitions – both anti-aircraft and anti-ship types – andunmanned weapons that are used under water, on the ocean’s surface, and in the air.
Japan must also deploy high-energy laser weapons using nuclear power generation and electromagnetic pulse weapons, due tothe possibility of saturation attacks with drones and unmanned ships.
The most important thing for weapons bases is their ability to withstand attacks. Accordingly, we must locate key portions
underground or install them on submarines.
!             @     ! F      8   QV5}   "  >       #              !  `dictatorship remains in power.
 @     ! F     `" Y @     ?      ~ ` !             |          + / 6 '       `" !            
  #           3      |   4   
weapons in its missile defense system.
Therefore, if a crisis occurred in Taiwan or on the Korean Peninsula, Japan would need to expect decreased support from the6       `" Y
Japan should also put less faith in the “nuclear umbrella.” It seems America will be at a disadvantage going forward when we            + /  !        2        !       +  # !   2  
a nuclear strike aimed at the U.S. alone and spanning all levels (strategic, theater, and tactical nuclear weapons), American
specialists recognize that the U.S. would not be able to withstand these attacks.
Moreover, it seems unlikely that the U.S. could quickly regain balance for its nuclear force. America has developed andproduced no new nuclear warheads since its last nuclear test in 1992.
American nuclear infrastructure has deteriorated and will require extensive amounts of money to restart. The federal
government’s gross national debt is approximately 32.8 trillion dollars, resulting in a lack of funds that delays plans to build
nuclear infrastructure.
The U.S. has no choice but to utilize existing nuclear infrastructure until 2036, when it plans to begin updating thisinfrastructure. Over the next decade or so, there will be no way to avoid a declining level of trust in nuclear deterrence, includingthese tangible considerations.
A crisis could break out in Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands, or the Korean Peninsula during that time period. Japan must have its           {                     !    @  @ Z     *          |      
strike. Japan should obtain its own nuclear arms if it is to survive as one of multiple poles in this era. Otherwise, the foundation of
our national security would be continuously entrusted to the will of another country – Japan would not be able to do anything if it
was excluded from the nuclear umbrella, and would have to yield to nuclear intimidation. Japan would not be a pole in that case,but rather a client state.
To achieve nuclear deterrence, Japan would ideally leverage its geopolitical advantages by employing nuclear submarinesthat can launch ballistic missiles, as well as vehicle-borne ballistic missiles in the deep underground. Japan has technologies to          "    8    *     @  >      "    { Y        country with an uncommon national character, the longest history and traditions in the world, an unbroken Imperial line, and aconsistent faith.
Japanese citizens still hold to proper ethics as principles for daily life: consideration and thoughtfulness, rather than human   8              F      {
This Japanese morality stems back to the Jomon civilization that lasted roughly 13,000 years. It was a long era of peace and

謀略に！翻弄された近現代

誇れる国、日本〔 〕● 20

「最優秀賞」の英訳は23ページからはじまり、19ページで終ります。
The English translation of the Grand Prize essay begins on page 23 and ends on page 19.
GRAND PRIZE (Fuji Seiji Prize)

The World and Japan After the Ukraine War: What are Japanʼs Values as One Power in a Multipolar Era?

          "     Japanese society, in the rich natural world of the Japanese archipelago, has been harmonious and stable for hundreds ofgenerations. It is a nation of co-existence with no history of despotism or slavery.
@              !    #     #successfully built a modern state on par with Western nations and has defended its independence since the Meiji period.
!               @           civilizations of the past and today, and between the worlds of East and West.
I believe the Japanese spirit of harmony and co-existence will provide helpful hints about the values and ways of living thatshould be shared throughout human society in the future.
Now is the time for Japan to help build a human society where numerous civilizations respect each other’s values. We must8|                  

19 ● 謀略に！翻弄された近現代 誇れる国、日本〔 〕