The Energy Crisis and the role ofRenewable Energy
Renewable Energy Institute 2022-06-14

Tomas Kåberger
Executive Board Chair of Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo
Professor Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg

800700

Global solar
PV capacity
1996-2021

GWp

600
500
400
300
200
1000 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Data: BP statistical review, IRENA

GW

300

Solar PVcapacity

200

leadingcountries.

ChinaJapanUS
Germany
India

100

1996-2021
01996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Data: BP statistical review ofworld energy, IRENA900

GW 800700600Global Windpower capacity
1980-2021

500
400
300
200100Data: GWEC, 2022

01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

400350 GWWind power

300

capacity250

leading

200

countries

150

1980-2021

China
USA
Germany
India
Spain

100
5001980 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Data GWEC, EWEA, 2022

7

7

8

8

8

9

9

9

USD/MWh

100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
2015
105001530

45

60

75

90

105 120 135 150

Crude Oil, $/bbl

USD/MWh

100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
403530252015105001530

45

60

75

90105 120 135 150

Crude Oil, $/bblUSD/MWh40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
00,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 10,0Methane price USD/MMBtu

USD/MWh40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 10,0Methane price USD/MMBtu

USD/MWh40
36
32
28
24
2016128400,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0Methane price USD/MMBtu

34
32
30
28
26
24
22

USD/MWh

20
18
16
14
12
10864
200

15

30

45

60

75

90

105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240

Coal price USD/ton

34
32
30
28
26
24
22

USD/MWh

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
20015

30

45

60

75

90

105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240

Coal price USD/ton

34
32
30
28

USD/MWh

26
24
22
20
1816141210864
20015 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240

Coal price USD/tonFuel price increase• Has the same effects as a global carbon tax• Makes energy efficiency and renewable energy more profitabel thanbefore• But dependence on Russian uranium challenge for global nuclear

Russia: An ”old energy” superpower• Worlds largest exporter of fossil gas• Worlds largest net-exporter of oil• With other CIS-countries, more than 1/2 of global uranium mining• All nuclear construction started outside China since 2019 are by Rosatom

But:• Unlike middle east countries and the US: No renewable energy development.

US strategy:• Short term: release oil from the strategicreserves• A year or two: Motivate concession

holders to extract mote oil and gas fromfederal lands• Energy efficiency, renewable electricity

and electrification of transport and heating• ”I am going to use the Defense Production Act tosecure supply chains for the critical materials that go
into batteries for electric vehicles and the storage ofrenewable energy : lithium , graphite, nickel and somuch more.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speechesremarks/2022/03/31/remarks-by-president-biden-onactions-to-lower-gas-prices-at-the-pump-for-americanfamilies/

By 2030, at least 80 percent of the gross electricity consumed in Germany is tocome from renewable sources. In 2030, the installed capacity of onshore windfarms is expected to reach 115 GW, offshore wind 30 GW, and the total capacityof photovoltaic panels 215 GW.

250 GW
200
150
100

Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar

50020222030

By 2030, at least 80 percent of the gross electricity consumed in Germany is tocome from renewable sources. In 2030, the installed capacity of onshore windfarms is expected to reach 115 GW, offshore wind 30 GW, and the total capacityof photovoltaic panels 215 GW.

250 GW
200
150
100

Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar5002022

2030

Common interests for EU and Japan:• High fuel prices calls for• Improved Energy Efficiency• Rapid deployment of renewable sources of energy• Using these opportunities will avoid even higher fuelprices

The Energy Crisis and the role ofRenewable Energy
Renewable Energy Institute 2022-06-14

Tomas Kåberger
Executive Board Chair of Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo
Professor Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg