WNISR2021

Japan Launch Event

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2021
(Plus end-of-year-updates!)
www.WorldNuclearReport.org

Co-Hosted by
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
andRenewable Energy InstituteTokyo (Japan), Nagasaki (Japan), Paris (France), London (U.K.), Stockholm (Sweden), 19 January 2022
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International, Interdisciplinary Team for a Multi-Indicator Analysis

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Mycle Schneider, Paris

mycle@worldnuclearreport.fr - www.WorldNuclearReport.org

Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant
on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator, Coordinator andPublisher of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He a
Founding Board Member and the Spokesperson for theInternational Energy Advisory Council (IEAC). He is a Founding
Member of the International Nuclear Risk Assessment Group(INRAG) and a member of the International Nuclear Security
Forum (INSF), based at the Stimson Center, USA. He is a memberof the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at
Photo: ©Nina Schneider Princeton University, USA.

Between 2004 and 2009, he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of theInternational Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecoledes Mines in Nantes, France. From 2000 to 2010, he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment
Ministry. 1998–2003, he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister
for Energy and Sustainable Development.
Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 16 countries and at the European
Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 30+
years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at over 20 universities and engineering schools in 10
countries.
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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER

Sources: WNISR, with BP, IAEA-PRIS, 2021

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER

Sources: WNISR, with BP, IAEA-PRIS, 2021

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – STARTUPS AND CLOSURES

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – STARTUPS AND CLOSURES

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW — WORLD FLEET

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GENERAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GENERAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS
Nuclear Reactors “Under Construction” (as of 31 December 2021)
Units

Capacity(MW net)Construction Start

Grid Connection

Units Behind
Schedule

China

20

19 2042012 – 2021

2022 – 2027

4

India

8

6 194

2004 – 2021

2022 – 2026

6

South Korea

4

5 360

2012 – 20182022 – 2025

4

Russia3

2 650

2018 – 2021

2022 – 2026

0

Turkey3

3 342

2018 – 2021

2024 – 2026

1

Bangladesh

2

2 160

2017 – 20182023 – 20240

Slovakia

2

880

1985

2022 – 2023

2

UAE

2

2 690

2014 – 2015

2022 – 2023

2

UK

2

3 260

2018 – 20192026 – 2027

2

USA

2

2 234

2013

2022 – 2023

2

Argentina

1

25

2014

2024

1

Belarus

1

1 110

2014

2022

1

Finland

1

1 600

2005

2022

1

France

1

1 600

2007

2023

1

Iran

1

1 196

1976

2024

1

Japan

1

1 325

2007

2025

1

Pakistan

1

1 014

2016

2022

1

Total

55

55 8441976 - 2021

2022 – 2027

30

Country

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Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GENERAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS
Duration from Construction Start to Grid Connection
Construction Times of 63 Units Started-up 2011–2020
Construction Time (in Years)
Country
Units
Mean Time Minimum
Maximum
China
37
6.1
4.1
11.2
Russia
10
18.7
8.1
35.1
South Korea
5
6.4
4.2
9.6
India
3
11.5
8.7
14.2
Pakistan
3
5.4
5.2
5.6
Argentina
1
33.0
33.0
Belarus
1
7.0
7.0
Iran
1
36.3
36.3
UAE
1
8.1
8.1
USA
1
42.8
42.8
World
63
9.9
4.1
42.8
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2021

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTIONS

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTIONS

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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GENERAL OVERVIEW — AGE EVOLUTION OF TOP 5 REACTOR FLEETS

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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NUCLEAR POWER AND CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE — Case Study France 1

Weather-related disruptions of
nuclear power production in
France since 2015:▸ 357 outages identified▸ At least a few dozen
disruptions a year

▸ Up to 2,300 reactor-hours
lost in a year

▸ Up to 6.2 GW unavailable

Sources: RTE and Callendar, 2021

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NUCLEAR POWER AND CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE — Case Study France 2

Sources: REMIT, compiled by Callendar 2021

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FRANCE FOCUS — UNPRECEDENTED DROP IN NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION

Sources: RTE, 2000–2021

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FRANCE FOCUS — NUCLEAR PLANTS INCREASINGLY UNRELIABLE

Sources: RTE and EDF, 2021

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FRANCE FOCUS — MONTHLY NUCLEAR PRODUCTION IN FRANCE

Source : RTE, EDF, 2021-22
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FRANCE FOCUS – POWER EXCHANGE 22 DECEMBER 2021

W

Source: RTE, 2021

French Power Trade
22 December 2021
Mycle Schneider Consulting• Net import most of the day• Max. 13 GW net from all neighbouring countries• Min. >9
GWhttps://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les-echanges-commerciaux-aux-frontieres
net• >60% from Germany / Belgium
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FRANCE FOCUS — EDF’s STEEP PLUNGE AT THE STOCK MARKET

Friday, 14 January 2022: EDF shares plunge by 23% at stock market opening
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx€uroJanuary 2022
Source: Yahoo Finance, 18 January 2022

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U.S. FOCUS

Sources: Various,, compiled by WNISR, 2021

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GERMANY FOCUS

Sources: AG EnergieBilanz, 2021

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Tatsujiro Suzuki, Nagasaki — suzukitatsu@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Tatsujiro SUZUKI is a Vice Director, Professor at the ResearchCenter for Nuclear Weapons Abolition at Nagasaki University(RECNA), Japan. Before joining RECNA, he was a Vice Chairmanof the Japan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) of the Cabinet
Office from January 2010 to March 2014. Until then, he was an
Associate Vice President of the Central Research Institute ofElectric Power Industry in Japan (1996-2009), an Associate
Director of MIT’s International Program on Enhanced Nuclear
Power Safety from 1988-1993 and a Research Associate at
MIT’s Center for International Studies (1993-95). He is amember of the Advisory Board of Parliament’s Special
Committee on Nuclear Energy since June 2017. He is also a
Council Member of Pugwash Conferences on Science andWorld Affairs (2007-09 and from 2014~). Dr. Suzuki has a PhD in
nuclear engineering from Tokyo University (1988).

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JAPAN FOCUS：要約 「日本の原子力現状」

1. The Fukushima nuclear accidents completely changed the energy sector inJapan.
2. Nuclear energy is no longer most reliable, least expensive, “main” powersource in Japan.
3. Japan’s government policy is self-inconsistent stating “Japan will reduce its
dependence on nuclear power as much as possible” but “maintain it asbase load electricity source”.
4. There are many unresolved issues which must be addressed regardless of
future of nuclear power, such as nuclear waste disposal.
5. The lack of independent and reliable information sources, like the WNISR,
is one of the reasons for public mistrust.
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JAPAN FOCUS： BIG SHIFTS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE AND PUBLIC OPINION

Nuclear PowerOperating: 54 units [49 GWe] (2011/3）→ 10 units [10 GWe] (2021/12)
Share of nuclear power: 26% (2010) → 4% (2020)
Coal (29%→31%)—Natural Gas (28% →39%)—Renewables (9% →20%)(2010–2020)
Source： METI, https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/statistics/total_energy/pdf/gaiyou2020fyr.pdf

Public Opinion“Nuclear power is necessary”: 87.4% (2010/9) → 24.9% (2013/12)“Nuclear power should be maintained 8.0% or expanded: 2.2% (2020/10)= 10.2%“Nuclear energy should be phased out 48% or shutdown immediately 8.4% (2020/10)= 56.4%
Source： Japan Atomic Energy Relations Organization (JAERO), “Public Opinion on Nuclear Power: 2020 edition”, February 2021.
https://www.jaero.or.jp/data/01jigyou/pdf/tyousakenkyu2020/results_2020.pdf

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WNISR2021 JAPAN FOCUS – GOVERNMENT / NUCLEAR INDUSTRY SELF INCONSISTENT?
Strategic Energy Plan (2021)• “Japan, which has experienced the accident at TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station,is giving the top priority to safety regarding nuclear power when realizing the 2030 energy mix
and making its energy choices for 2050 and is reducing its dependency on nuclear power as
much as possible as it aims to expand renewable energy. “(p.4)• “Nuclear power is an important base-load power source as a low carbon and quasi-domesticenergy source, contributing to the stability of the energy supply-demand structure in the longterm.” (p.23)• “Regarding TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, the government andnuclear operators must continue their efforts to make sure not to let such accident happen
again, not forgetting even for a moment that their falling into the so-called “myth of safety”
invited the disastrous situation, sincerely reflecting on that fact.”(p.56)
Source: https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/5th/pdf/strategic_energy_plan.pdf

Still GOJ wants to maintain nuclear power as a base-load electricity source and promote it as a“growth sector” in its “Green Growth Strategy towards 2050 Carbon Neutrality”.

Source: METI, “Green Growth Strategy towards 2050 Carbon Neutrality”, December 25, 2020, https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2020/1225_001.html

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JAPAN FOCUS — RISE AND FALL OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS, 2022

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JAPAN FOCUS — OFFICIAL VERSUS WNISR ASSESSMENT

Sources: Various, compiled by WNISR

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JAPAN FOCUS — AGE OF JAPAN’s NUCLEAR FLEET

Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS, 2021

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Hisako Sakiyama, Tokyo — sahisako@nifty.com
Hisako Sakiyama is the Chair of the Board of Directors of the 3/11 Fund forChildren with Thyroid Cancer, which was established in 2016 to provide various
forms of support, including financial, for children diagnosed with thyroid cancer
following the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster. She has also acted as
expert witness in a number of lawsuits following the Fukushima disaster. She is amember of Takagi School founded by the late Jinzaburo Takagi in 1999 to train
citizen scientists. She and members of the Takagi School are educating the public
about the risks of medical exposure in Japan.
She served as a member of the National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident
Independent Investigation Commission.
She is the co-author of "Ten Lessons from Fukushima" (Fukushima Booklet
Committee), which has been translated into 13 languages.
She received her M.D. and Ph.D. from Chiba University School of Medicine and wasa research associate in the department of biochemistry at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT) (1968-1972). She was a senior researcher at the
National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) working on cancer cell biology(1975-2000).

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WNISR2021 FUKUSHIMA+10 – RADIOACTIVE IODINE DISPERSION• Multiple prefectures were
contaminated with radioactive
iodine (a cause of thyroid cancer).
• Thyroid screening carried out inFukushima Prefecture only.
TEPCO

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WNISR2021 FUKUSHIMA+10 – INAPPROPRIATE COMMUNICATION ON PREVENTIVE MESURES
Instructions to take iodine tablets as preventative measure were not properly relayed
Nuclear Safety Commission

Fax sent on 13 March 2011
- LostX

Fax sent on 16 March 2011
- Went unnoticed until 18 March 2011

X

Off-site centre withinevacuation zone was not
functional

Governor of Fukushima Prefecture

Following the Fukushima
Daiichi accidents, it was
decided to distribute iodine
tablets to all households
within a 5 km radius and toprovide them to people alongplanned evacuation routes
within a 30 km radius

X

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Governor who should have instructed local mayors
to tell the population to take the iodine tablets,
in accordance with the disaster prevention plan,
was unaware of his responsibility

Local Mayors in Fukushima Prefecture
Miharu, Futaba, Tomioka, and Okuma towns unilaterally decided
to administer iodine to 10,000 people in total
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FUKUSHIMA+10 – THYROID SCREENINGS DO NOT REFLECT CASE NUMBERS
Thyroid screenings failed to accurately identify thyroid cancer patient numbers
Fukushima Prefectural Health Management Survey Screening Process
A1 or A2
A1or A2 equivalentPrimary
Examination

B or C

Secondary
Examination

Cytodiagnosis

Malignancy or
Suspected malignancy

Nextroutinescreening

ReportPrefectural
Oversight
Committee

Patient
numbers
not reported

A1: No abnormality detected
A2: Nodules up to 5 mm, cysts up to 20 mm
B: Nodules 5.1 mm or larger, cysts 20.1 mm or larger
C: Immediate need for confirmatory examination

Standard care(follow-up observation)

Reported by Fukushima Medical University
In March 2017

Additional patients identified so far
From 2016-2017 cancer registry: 24 (inc. 19 confirmed cancer cases reported by Shinichi Suzuki ）3.11 thyroid cancer children's fund/surgery performed outside Fukushima: 9
Source: Documents from FHMOC (compiled by 3.11 Fund)
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FUKUSHIMA+10 – IDENTIFIED THYROID CANCER CASES IN FUKUSHIMA

Thyroid Cancers Identified in the Fukushima Prefectural Health Management Survey
Round 1
(FY2011‒2013)

Round 2
（FY2014‒2015）

Round 3
(FY2016‒2017)

Round 4
(FY2018‒2019）

Round 5For age 25（FY2017‒2021）

Total

116

71

31

36

3

9

266

Round 4 results:
Not reported

Round 4 results:

Malignant orsuspected
Previous Round
Results

Round 1 results:
A1: 33
A2: 32
B: 5
Not examined: 1

A2:2
B:2
Not Examined: 5

101

55

29

29

1

6

300,472(81.7%)

270,540(71.0%)

217,922(64.7%)

183,352（62.3%)

32,404(12.8%)

7,621(8.7%)

Confirmed
Participants(Participation rate)

Round 2 results: Round 3 results:
A1: 7
A1: 6
A2: 14
A2: 19
B: 7
B: 8
Not examined: 3
Not Examined: 3

221

Number of people initially rated A1 but developing 5.1 mm+ nodules in 2 years: 46
Sources: FHMSOC, October 2021
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FUKUSHIMA+10 – SEGMENTATION ISSUES
Exposure levels were estimated andsegmented by the OversightCommittee on the basis of aircraft
measurements in the evacuation
zone and three regions outside. The
causal relationship that is clearlyvisible when the exposure doses aresegmented by contaminated area (A)incorrectly seems to disappear when
the doses were segmented according
to the UNSCEAR estimate based on
the calculated sum of external andinternal exposure for two different
age groups (B).
Sources: Fund for Children with Thyroid Cancer, FHMSOC, 2021

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FUKUSHIMA+10 – EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI VS. DISASTER-RELATED DEATHS

Comparison of earthquake and tsunami deaths with disaster-related deaths
in Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate Prefectures
Definition of disaster-related deaths: deaths resulting from conditions exacerbated by the earthquake or illnesses from
evacuation stress, legally recognised as being a result of the disaster for the purposes of condolence money payments etc.

Total disaster-related deaths in Japan: 3,784
Disaster-related deaths in Fukushima Prefecture: 2,329 (~2/3 of total)
Prefecture

Earthquake Deaths

Tsunami Deaths

Earthquake + Tsunami
DeathsDisaster-related
Deaths

Fukushima

1,466

1,275

2,741 (10.6%)

2,329 (62.5%)

Miyagi

8,745

6,674

15,419 (59.6%)

929 (24.9%)

Iwate

4,243

3,479

7,722 (48.6%)

470 (12.6%)

Although direct deaths from the earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima were 1/5 and 1/6 of those in Iwate and Miyagi
respectively, disaster-related deaths are 2.5 and 5 times higher in Fukushima.
Source: Reconstruction Agency, as of Sept 2021

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Antony Froggatt, London afroggatt@chathamhouse.org - www.WorldNuclearReport.org
Antony Froggatt joined Chatham House in 2007 and is
Deputy Director and a Senior Research Fellow in the
Energy, Environment and Resources Department. He has
worked as an independent consultant for 20 years withenvironmental groups, academics and public bodies in
Europe and Asia. His most recent research projects areunderstanding the energy and climate policy
implications of Brexit, climate risk (particularly in China)
and on the technological and policy transformation of
the energy sector. Since 1992 he has been the co-authorof the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, a now
annual independent review of the nuclear sector.

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Sources: FS-UNEP/BNEF 2018, 2020, REN21 2019, BNEF 2021 and WNISR Original Research, 2021

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Sources: BP Statistical Review, 2021

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Source: Lazard Estimates, 2020

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Source: IEA, 2021

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Sources: BP Statistical Review, 2021

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS, IRENA, BP Statistical Review, 2021

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CONCLUSIONS• In 2020, nuclear power generation plunged by un an unprecedented margin except for the aftermath of 3/11 (2011–12).
• The French case illustrates increasing difficulties with ageing reactors, the nuclear share dropped to 35-year low in 2020.
• Non-hydro renewables—mainly wind, solar and biomass—have out-performed nuclear power on a global scale. Hydro
alone has been generating more power than nuclear for most of the past three decades.
• For the first time, non-hydro renewables generated more power in the European Union than nuclear, and renewables
including hydro generated more power than all fossil fuels combined.
• Net nuclear capacity addition—new startups minus closure decisions—declined to 0.4 GW in 2020 and turned negativein 2021 compared to +290 GW for renewables alone. Nuclear is irrelevant in today’s electricity capacity newbuild market.
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) get a lot of media coverage, some public money, but are so far unavailable commerciallyand will not be—if ever—for another 10–15 years. Pilot projects in Argentina, China, and Russia have been disappointing.
• The situation at Fukushima, onsite/offsite, remains unstable. Effects on health and well-being are significant. Costestimates have risen, currently range from US$223.1 billion (Gov.) to US$322–758 billion (independent). Japanese courts
have acquitted Government/TEPCO officials over disaster responsibility but ruled against reactor operation in some cases.
• Nuclear power demonstrated a high sensibility to the COVID-19 pandemic. A first analysis shows that it has a low
resilience against the most common climate change effects. Nuclear’s resilience will likely further decline.
• There is a real question about the exposure of the nuclear power sector to criminal activities including bribery andcorruption, counterfeiting and other falsification, as well as infiltration by organized crime.
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ANNEXES

Annexes• Small Modular Reactors• European Union Taxonomy• Newbuild Program in France?

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Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) – Public Attention• Lots of media coverage

Example Canada• Some public funding• 2018: Federal funding for SMR roadmap• Favourable regulation• 2020: Federal government released action plan
• October 2020: CAD20 million (US$16 million) in federal
funding to Terrestrial Energy• March 2021: CAD50 million (US$40 million) in federal
funding to Moltex• October 2020: Ontario Power Generation announced
agreements with GE Hitachi, Terrestrial Energy and X-energy

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SMRs – Project Delays and Poor Performance• Argentina
Carem-25 construction start 2014; November 2020 report: “physicalcompletion of Carem 25 is at 70%”; No completion date.

• China
HTR-PM (2 x 100 MW) construction start 2012; projected togenerate electricity in 2017; only one module grid-connected so far(four years late).

• Russia
KLT-40S (2 x 30 MW) construction start 2007; projected to start
operations in October 2010; commissioned in May 2020; loadfactors in 2020 just 29 and 16 percent.
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SMRs – Reactor Design Delays

India

AHWR 2000 projection: operating by 2011; no current
construction plans.

USA

NuScale 2008 projection: electricity generation by 2015-16;
current: 2029-30?

Russia“Federal Program for Advanced Nuclear Technologies” in 2012:
three commercial fast neutron reactors by 2020, including the
BREST-300, as well as the lead-bismuth cooled SVBR-100, and thesodium-cooled BN-1200; BREST construction start in June 2021.

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SMRs – Smaller Size, New Challenges• Loss of economies of scale- Nuclear power is already costly• More spent fuel/proliferation potential- Accentuates problems

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EUROPEAN UNION TAXONOMY — What is it?

• The EU Taxonomy is a classification system for sustainable economic activities.
• Overall goal is to create transparency and disclose the impact of investments. It ispart of the EU Action Plan Financing Sustainable Growth (European Commission).
• Aims to enable the financial system to guide investment decisions into a moresustainable direction and thus accelerate the transition to a circular economy inEurope and beyond.

Sources: Various, compiled by Antony Froggatt

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EUROPEAN UNION TAXONOMY — Timeline• Taxonomy Regulation published 22 June 2020, entered into force 12 July 2020.
• Draft delegated act for first two environmental objectives (climate change mitigation andadaptation) approved 21 April 2021.
• Delegated Act supplementing Article 8 of the Taxonomy Regulation adopted 6 July 2021
(specifies the content, methodology and presentation of information to be disclosed byfinancial and non-financial undertakings). Taxonomy compass launched.
• The draft delegated acts for the remaining four environmental objectives are expected to be
published by the end of 2021.
• The Taxonomy is expected to go into force for the first two environmental objectives by theend of 2021, and for the remaining four objectives by the end of 2022. The Taxonomy will befully operational by 2023.
• 1 January 2022, European Commission announced consultation on Complementary Delegated
Act covering certain nuclear and natural gas activities.
• Disclosure requirements apply on 1 January 2022 in relation to the climate objectives, and on
1 January 2023 in relation to the other four environmental objectives. Sources: Various, compiled by Antony Froggatt
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EUROPEAN UNION TAXONOMY — Who will be impacted?

• Companies– ...already required to provide non-financial information under the Corporate
Sustainability Reporting Directive will have to disclose the share of their Taxonomyaligned activities.
– ...will benefit from a tool to measure the sustainability level of a particular investment
and gradually increase the share of a company’s sustainable economic activities.
• Financial Market Participants– ...offering sustainable finance products.
– ...will benefit helping them to avoid investments in green-washing and support
institutional investors (such as insurance companies or pension funds) to invest theirlong-term capital in sustainable economic activities.
• Public Sector– ...used to define green financial products via the EU Ecolabel/EU green bond standards.
Sources: Various, compiled by Antony Froggatt
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EUROPEAN UNION TAXONOMY — Nuclear PowerThe European Commission considers there is a role for natural gas and nuclear power as means tofacilitate the transition towards a predominantly renewables-based future.
• Public consultation launched on 1 January and closed on 12 January 2022...
• European Parliament and European Council have four months. Majority of 20 Member States andmajority of European Parliament can overturn proposal (highly unlikely).
Leaked Draft Delegated Regulation — Nuclear Power• Nuclear power plant investments designated as sustainable under certain conditions, incl. the project“has a plan with detailed steps to have in operation, by 2050, a disposal facility for high-level
radioactive waste”.
• Nuclear supporting renewables? “Finally, by providing a stable baseload energy supply, nuclear energy
facilitates the deployment of intermittent renewable sources and does not hamper their development”
as required by the Taxonomy Regulation. Hard to demonstrate.
• Lifetime extensions also sustainable? “In view of the long lead times for investments in new nuclear
generation capacity, extending the service time of selected existing nuclear installations can support the
decarbonisation of the energy system in the near to medium term. The technical screening criteria forsuch extensions should, however, include modifications and safety upgrades...” Sources: Various, compiled by Antony Froggatt
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EUROPEAN UNION TAXONOMY — Natural Gas

Leaked Draft Delegated Regulation — Natural Gas• Natural gas plants are considered sustainable if they produce emissions below 270 g of CO2
equivalent per kilowatt-hour, replace more polluting fossil fuel plants, receive a
construction permit by 31 December 2030, and the power generated by the activity may
not yet efficiently be replaced by power generated from renewable energy sources.
• Also, “the facility demonstrates compatibility with co-firing of low carbon gaseous fuels andthere are effective plans or commitments, approved by the management body, to use atleast 30% of renewable or low-carbon gases as of 1 January 2026, and at least 55% ofrenewable or low- carbon gases as of 1 January 2030, and to switch to renewable or lowcarbon gases and the switch takes place by 31 December 2035”.

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FRANCE FOCUS — The EPR is dead, long live EPR2?

Macron Announcement 9 November 2021
• “For the first time in decades, we will relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors inour country”. No date, no site, no numbers. (“Nous allons, pour la première fois depuis
des décennies, relancer la construction de réacteurs nucléaires dans notre pays”).
Leaked October 2021 Government Paper on “New Nuclear”• Design choices ”to be confirmed et uncertainties to be lifted to guarantee theconstructibility of the EPR2”.
• EDF estimates that ”more than 20 million engineering hours” are necessary to getfrom the “basic design” to “detailed design”.
• EDF cost estimate increased by 13% between early 2020 and mid-2021.
• Grid connection of first reactor between 2039 and 2043, sixth reactor 2047–2051.
• Document renders obsolete timeline and nuclear economics of grid operator RTE
major study “Future énergétique 2050” released also in October 2021.
Source: Gouvernement France, “Travaux relatifs au nouveau nucléaire — PPE 2019-2028”, Octobre 2021
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