219

Effects of Global Warming on Civil Life in Japan
Hideo HARASAWA
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japane-mail: harasawa@nies.go.jp

Abstract
Global warming is progressing, and its direct and indirect influences on various fields and in various regions have come to the surface. Although there have been few studies of the effect of global
warming on civil life, I have summarized the effects that have been detected so far and those that are
predicted to occur in the future. Effects on the natural environment, the atmosphere and the water environment have also become apparent, and this situation will presumably become more serious in the
future. Also, there is a growing worldwide tendency for the frequency and intensity of extreme climate
events and other unusual phenomena to increase, and once extreme weather events occur they oftencause heavy and extensive damage. Therefore, I have summarized both our existing knowledge of theeffects of heat waves and devastating rain events and our future predictions.
Key words: adaptation measure, civil life, extreme weather event, global warming, living environment

1. Introduction
Global warming is progressing, and its direct andindirect impacts on various fields and in various regions have come to the surface. Although there havebeen few studies of the effect of global warming on
civil life, I have summarized the effects that have been
detected so far and those that are predicted to occur inthe future. The effects on civil life, as specified by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
include those on human settlement, industry and urban
areas; and the effects on the financial and insurance
fields include those of extreme weather/climate
events.

2. Effects on the Living Environment
2.1 Outline of climate change in JapanThe following summarizes the recent climatechanges that have occurred in Japan. Compared withthe average global temperature rise of 0.6°C over the
100 years of the 20th Century, higher temperaturerises have been observed in recent years.
a) Temperature change: During the 100 years of the20th Century, the average temperature in Japanrose by approximately 1°C (global average 0.6°C).
Urban areas, especially, are influenced by the heatisland effect, and Tokyo, for instance, has experienced an average temperature rise of approximately 2.9°C. Also, the numbers of tropical days
Global Environmental Research
10(2)/2006: 219-226
printed in Japanand nights are on the increase, especially in urban
areas, and the number of cold days has declined(Japan Meteorological Agency, 2002).
b) Rainfall change: Although it differs from area toarea, the incidence of heavy rainfall (over 50 mm
per hour) is increasing slightly (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2002). Snowfall patterns are alsochanging. Snowfall change is characterized bywide differences, depending on the region. For example, whereas a tendency toward decreasing
snowfall is observed in the Hokuriku Region,
snowfall is on the increase in Hokkaido.
c) Extreme weather events change: The tendency
toward frequent occurrences of extreme weather
events in Japan in recent years has been demonstrated by extreme heat during the summer, torrential rainfall and the arrival of ten typhoons in 2004.
During the summer of 2004, Tokyo (Otemachi) experienced a record high daytime temperature of
39.5°C, and records for high temperatures weresmashed in many other places as well. This caused
a total of over 1,500 people to suffer from heatstress in 2004. The annual average number oftyphoons that hit Japan has been 2.6 (maximum: 6).
Heavy rainfall, floods, high water levels and tidal
waves caused by typhoons and intense rainfall left
more than 300 people dead or missing in 2004,
and more than 170 thousand households were
flooded (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005).
d) Sea level change: From 1970 to 2003, the sea©2006 AIRIES220

H. HARASAWA

level rose by an annual average of 2 mm along theseashores of Japan (Konishi, 2004).
2.2 Effects on the immediate natural environment
Global warming first affects those flora and faunathat are vulnerable to temperature change. In Japan,
the following effects are currently becoming apparent.
a) Distribution of alpine plants
On Mt. Apoi in Hokkaido, with the advancementof the Japanese white pine (Pinus parviflora) to higher
altitudes, the numbers of alpine plants such as
Callianthemum miyabeanum have decreased and thenumbers of dwarf stone pines (Pinus pumila) haveincreased (Masuzawa et al., 2005; Natori et al., 2003).
Around the central mountain area, die-off of the top
branches of the dwarf stone pines has been confirmed.
It is thought that decreasing snow coverage caused by
global warming is reducing the protective effects
provided by the snow (Masuda, 2001).
b) Timing of plant blooming
The average flowering date of cherry blossoms(Yoshino Cherry, Prunus yedoensis) from 1989 to
2000 was 3.2 days earlier than usual (from 1971 to2000) at 89 sites in Japan. The average date on which
Japanese maples (Acer palmatum) turn red is now
about two weeks later than the average date from 1953
to 2000 (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2002). These
results were analyzed on the basis of phenological
data observed since 1953 by the Japan Meteorological
Agency. Global warming influences not only climatechanges but also human activities. Therefore, the
IPCC recommends the collection of observational data
for longer periods (e.g., 10 to 20 years or longer) to

Significance 1%
Significance 5%
Significance 10%
No N.
SignificanceS.
No testAccelerated

Decelerated※The figures on the map indicate
change in number of days over afifty-year period (negative figuresindicate earlier blossoming)※Determination made in cases with48 or more observations.

Fig. 1 Earlier Flowering of Cherry Trees in Japan.

detect the effects of global warming. The phenological
data are valuable, because they have been observed
over 50 years, although they have complex interrelationships with artificial effects such as those of heatislands. Figure 1 shows the number of days by which
the cherry blossoming date has been advanced overthe past 50 years, in accordance with the phenological
data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Although
the number of days varies with the observation site,
most of the data for Japan show that the date has advanced.
c) Insect habitats
The great mormon (Papilio memnon thunbergii),
whose northern limit was Kyushu and southern
Shikoku in the 1940s, began to be found in Wakayama
and Hyogo prefectures in the 1980s, and in the Kanto
region from 2000 (Yoshio & Ishii, 2001; Yoshio, 2003).
Southern-bred cicadas (Cryptotympana japonensis),which occur from the subtropical zone to the tropicalzone, were found in 2001 in eastern Japan (Biodiversity Center of Japan, Ministry of the Environment, 2002). Until the 1970s, tent spider (Cyrtophoramoluccensis) was found only in western Japan, but inthe 1980s it was found in the Kanto region (Harasawa& Nishioka, 2003; Hamaguchi, 2000). The distribution of harmful insects has reportedly spread northward and generally expanded. For example, the green
tree cricket (Calyptotrypus hibinonis), the great mormon and the Indian fritillary (Argyreus hyperbius)
have become well known. The expansion of their distribution cannot yet be explained by scientific data interms of natural change, global warming or temperature rise (Ministry of the Environment (MOE), 2006).

Effects of Global Warming on Civil Life in Japand) Animal habitats
Animal habitats have changed because of the progress of global warming. In recent years, for instance,
the white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons) has flown inlate and started out early (Takeshita, 1998). Its wintering places have extended not only to the main islandof Japan but also to Hokkaido, and the number ofindividuals has tended to increase. It has been confirmed that foxes and martens are now inhabiting Mt.
Hakusan at an elevation of 2,000 meters (Masuda,2002).
e) Effects on sea animals and plants
There have been few studies of the effects ofglobal warming on sea animals and plants. However,according to various sources of information, sea turtles are now going further north to deposit their eggs
for incubation, and the green turtle (Chelonia mydas),
whose northern limit was previously YakushimaIsland, has been confirmed to have shifted its sites foregg deposition and incubation to Miyazaki andKagoshima prefectures. Southern-bred octopuses,
crabs and fishes have moved north (Masuda, 2002). In
the sea around Motobumachi, in Okinawa Prefecture,coral bleaching has occurred. A species of table coral,
Acropora solitaryensis, which previously inhabited
the tropical zone, has extended its habitat northwardand has been found in the Amakusa region (MOE &Japanese Coral Reef Society, 2004).
2.3 Effects on the atmospheric environment
There is concern about the effect of global warming in terms of the deterioration of civil life and theenvironment, in combination with the heat island phenomenon. Increasing global warming is predicted togenerate phenomena such as heatwaves and temperature rises, which complicate atmospheric contamination. One of these phenomena is the serious problem
of urban ozone level increase and its effects. In theUSA, scientists have predicted that urban ozone levels
will increase as part of the atmospheric contamination
caused by global warming (Knowlton et al., 2004).
In Japan, also, urban ozone has tended to increase
together with the temperatures in cities. The relationship has been pointed out between the generation ofurban ozone and volatile organic compounds (VOC)from vehicle emissions. It has also been noted that theflow of ozone from the continent to the Japanesearchipelago has continued to increase backgroundconcentrations of ozone. If the progress of global
warming increases the temperatures in cities, then thegeneration of urban ozone, and its effects, may intensify in the future.
2.4 Effects on aqueous environments
Because temperature rises cause elevations in thetemperatures of rivers and lakes and changes in rainfall levels, there is concern about various effects. For
example, changes in the environments of rivers,
streams, lakes or reservoirs caused by changes in221water circulation have large impacts on aquatic life. If
the temperature of a river changes, it influences the
incubation and growth of freshwater fishes. The charsaltwater trout (Salvelinus malma) and a related
mountain salmonid (Salvelinus pluvius) live in cold
water. If the water temperature were to increase by
4°C, only 10% of them would survive, whereas 72%of them could survive if the temperature were to increase by only 1°C. Therefore, these species may become extinct due to global warming (Hamaguchi,
2000). Salmonids inhabit rivers as juveniles, migrate
to the ocean and then go back to the rivers where they
were born and spawn in them. Their southern limit issaid to be the Tone River (Ibaraki Prefecture), on the
Pacific Ocean side of Japan, and Nagasaki Prefectureon the Japan Sea side. However, if global warning
progresses, then the temperatures of the rivers are
predicted to change and the fishes’ southern limit may
retreat northward. This phenomenon may influence
the production volume of salmonids and, indirectly,
our diet.
Because lakes are closed bodies of water, riverwater often flows into them and then stays there.
Global warming causes water temperature rises insuch lakes and changes in the water level because ofchanges in the volume of water input by the rivers. It
can be predicted that lakes with organic contaminationand eutrophication will easily generate oxygen-deficient water in the summer. From effect predictions at
Kasumigaura, it has been pointed out that a temperature rise of 1°C will cause a water temperature rise ofabout 1°C, and this situation could increase thechemical oxygen demand (COD; an indicator oforganic contamination) by 1 ppm (Fukushima et al.,2000). The volume of snow in the basin of Lake Biwa
has been declining. This means that the change indistribution of the water temperature of the lake due
the reduction in volume of snowmelt water has begun
to influence the water quality and ecology of the lake.
Deterioration of the water quality of Lake Biwa, witha rise in bottom water temperature and a declining
trend in dissolved oxygen concentration, has been
confirmed (Lake Biwa Research Institute, 2003;
Kumagaya et al., 2005). Furthermore, although there
have been only a small number of studies of thezooplankton of the biotic communities that comprisethe ecology of such lakes, it has been pointed out thatthese zooplankton may become miniaturized and theirbiodiversity may decrease.

3. Effects on Civil Life
3.1 Effects of extreme weather events or unusual
weather
Extreme weather events these days may have aconsiderable impact on civil life as a result of thediversification of human habitats as well as the increasing number of unusual climates. For example, thenumber of victims, including fatalities, has increased

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H. HARASAWA

from year to year in accordance with an increase in
the number of floods. The need for people to live inflood-prone areas because of changes in land use(such as urbanization) or population upsurges can beconsidered one of the reasons behind the increase in
the numbers of flood victims. With diversification ofhuman habitat, the effects of climate on civil life havebeen become complicated and serious. Table 1 summarizes the effects of extreme weather events, such as
floods, continual rain, heavy rain, drought, light rain,
heatwaves, hot summers, coldwaves and cold winters,on civil life. The main effects are injuries, disease,
infection, heat stress/stroke, hypothermia, mental
stress, allergies and death. Needy people, aged people,
children and immunocompromised people are commonly victims of such effects.
a) Effects of local heavy rain, flood damage
Record local heavy rains and inundations have occurred repeatedly lately. The area damaged by floods
has tended to decrease, but the flood damage density(i.e., the amount of damaged general assets per inundation area) has tended to increase (Cabinet Office ofJapan, 2002). The maximum water discharge abilities
of city sewerage facilities have been designed on thebasis of past record amounts of rainfall. Furthermore,
the facilities have been improved assuming that overflows would occur only every few years. The increased number of local heavy rains and the increased
degree of rainfall intensity indicate that the design ofsuch facilities now has to be reconsidered.
b) Effects of heatwaves
The health effects of extreme heat and heatwaves
Table 1in summer have now appeared, especially in large
cities. In Tokyo, the incidence of heat stress starts toincrease on days when the maximum temperature exceeds 30°C, and it tends to increase rapidly when thetemperature exceeds 35°C (Ando & Asanuma, 2003;
Warming & Human Health, 2006). In the summerof 2004, there were 70 tropical days in Tokyo(Otemachi) and 60 in Tsukuba. Both of these numbers
were record highs. In big cities, it is difficult to isolate
the complicated effects of global warming from thoseof heat islands. Regardless, people living in cities aredefinitely suffering from the effects of extreme heat or
heatwaves in summer.
The National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES) has established a system of quick data reporting, entitled “global warming and health,” whichcounts on its website the number of emergency transportations to hospitals each week. A fundamental observational study of the occurrence of heat stress has
been conducted on the basis of records of emergency
transportation to hospitals over the past four years(2000 to 2003). In Tokyo, the study was conducted in
the 23 central urban wards and other municipalities
separately. The following data were the result of afundamental observational study of emergency transportation to hospitals of heat stress patients for four
years from 2000 to 2003. Figure 2 shows the relationship between daily temperature (average and highest
temperatures) and the number of heat stress patients
presenting in four districts. In each district, heat stresspatients began to present at a daily average temperature of 25°C and maximum temperature of 30°C, andExamples of effects of extreme weather events on civil life.
FactorPotential effect
Rise in streamwaters,
flash floods, mudslides/mudflows, Drowning, injury
landslides
Inundation
Respiratory disease, hypothermia, physical/mental fatigue
Tetanus, dermatitis, conjunctivitis,
Water exposure (water pollution)
otorhinolaryngologic infection, physical/mental fatigue
Sewage damage, potable water
Water-borne infections (E. coli bacillus, dysentery bacillus,
pollutionetc.), infections such as cholera and salmonella
FloodsRat plagues
Leptospiral infection
Contact with rats
Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS)
Serious proliferation of
Malaria, breakbone fever, yellow fever
mosquitoes
Chemical spills, industrial waste
Injury by contamination with chemical substances
spillsLoss of life or property
Mental stress
Soil avalanches
Injuries
Continual rain,
Growthinpopulationsofparasitic
heavy rain
Infections transmitted by parasitic insects
insects
Failure of crops
Immune system compromise
Drought,
Serious proliferation of
Infection with West Nile fever virus
shortage ofmosquitoes
rainfallInflammation of eyes, nose and throat,
Smoke damage by forest fires
circulatory system disease
Heatwaves,
Abnormally high temperatures
Heat stress, heat stoke, dehydration, respiratory effects
hot summers
Urban ozone level increase
Asthma, allergy
Coldwaves,Colds, pneumonia, bronchial infections,
Unusually low temperaturescold winterscirculatory system disease, hypothermia, death from coldEffects of Global Warming on Civil Life in Japan

223

Fig. 2 Relationship between daily temperature (average andmaximum temperature) and average number of heatstress patients (2000-2003).

FloodsHealthIncrease in photochemical smog

Worse sanitation
after flood

Increase in heatstress patientsThunderstorm
effects

Food poisoning insome areas

Deformation of roads
and railroad tracks
Increase in damage toairline andtransportation industry

River floods

High tides

House collapse due
to mudslides

Inundation due toextreme tides

Transportation
troubleFlood ofunderground malls

Inland flood of
Urban areas

EconomyIncrease of beer
and cool drinks

Agriculture/Fishery

Benefit to someindustries
Increase in consumption
goods and electricalappliances

Increase in premiums
for damage insurance

Natural hazards
Mudslides

River bank collapses

Destruction of roads
and railroads

Increase in high tide
damage－Positive－－Negative－

Increase inwatermelon
consumption

Increase in crop
damageIncrease in sugar
content of pears &grapesIncreased damage ofinfrastructure

Increase in crop
harvests

Death of dairy cows
and broiler chickens

Reduction in rice
price

Escape and death ofcultured fish

Abundant catches ofsaury

Ecosystems

Daily life
Increase in car
accidents

Damage to electronic
devices by lightning

Concerns about
global warming andweatherLack of sleep throughtropical nights

Water temp.
increase
Air temp.
Increase

Heavy rain

－Animals－－Plants－

Typhoons

Increase in carp
herpes virus

Fall or deterioration ofpears and apples

Increase in harmful
insects

Effects on beech trees

Increase insightings of bears

Damage by harmful
insects

Serious proliferationof hornets

Change in flowering
dates of plants

Expansion/northward
shift of insectsColor change of leavesof tall roadside trees

Recreation
EnergyIncrease of summer
mountain climbers

Snow valley
collapse accidents

Crowding onbeaches

Water-related
accidents

Decrease in outdoor
recreation

Earlier flowering ofsunflowers

Increase in electricity
consumption

Increase in max. electricity
due to increased demand
for air-conditioning

Increase in power failuresthrough electrical outages

Fig. 3 Outline of impacts of heat waves, local heavy rains and typhoons in 2004.

Increase in sighting ofmonkeys and wild
boars

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H. HARASAWA

the numbers presenting increased rapidly at a daily
average temperature of 30°C and maximum temperature of 35°C. Furthermore, standardization was performed to account for the different numbers of people
in the four districts. After standardization, when thedaily average temperature was about 25°C and thedaily maximum was about 30°C, heat stress patients
started to present. The greater the daily temperaturerise, the more the number of heat stress patients increased. There was a correlation between the ambient
temperature and the number of heat stress patients. A
survey of individual temperature patterns and exposure to heat stress found that on days of extreme heat(higher than 30°C), temperatures were observed torise to over 50°C for a short time (Kabuto et al.,2005).
c) Effect of tropical nights
In cities, the number of tropical nights has increased. An questionnaire survey has reported thatsleep disorders are occurring as a result (Kabuto et al.,2006; Committee of Global Warming Impacts on Civil
Life, 2003). A district comparison of temperature control in summer, from the results of the questionnaire
survey, mentioned that a large group of people affected by the heat were unable to sleep, the nextlargest group felt tired and physically disturbed, andsome people felt that they could not move because oftiredness and dehydration (“heat stress”). The conditions caused by extreme heat are therefore not only
heat stress in the daytime, but also insomnia duringtropical nights. Because the incidence of such conditions has tended to increase, further studies and countermeasures are required.
d) Effect of extreme heat in the summer of 2004
Japan had a chilly summer in 2003, whereas aheatwave hit Europe in the same year. Although theheatwave received a lot of attention in Japan, it could
not actually be felt. In 2004, Japan was hit by extreme
heat, local heavy rains and typhoons all over the country, and we suffered a good deal of damage. Figure 3
is a summary of the effects of these occurrences in

2004. Including the direct and indirect effects, it canbe said that such incidents have influenced almost all
fields of civil life and activity. However, it is difficult
to determine whether or not extreme weather events
have in fact had certain indirect effects, and further
research is required at present.

4. Effects on Industry
Various effects of global warming on industry havebecome apparent, and these have centered on seasonal
industries (Table 2). The rise in temperature has influenced air-conditioning demand by public and businesssectors, as well as the energy demand of the industrial
sector in terms of the rise and decline of seasonal industries (Ichikawa, 2003). In predicting such seasonalchanges in temperature and adjusting production, eachbusiness enterprise treats the effects of global
warming in its own way. However, the serious damage
caused by heavy rains and typhoons in 2004 appears
to have influenced the management of insurancecompanies, which have paid out insurance money
against the damages.

5. Results of Predicting Global Warming
Effects on Japan
Neither the national government nor local governments – nor even the IPCC – have enough knowledge
to predict future global warming effects. Related research is going forward energetically at present. This
paper has summarized the predictions of those global
warming effects that are unique to Japan.
5.1 Prediction of effects on civil life
Predictions of the future of the global warming
process (partly enhanced by the effects of urbanization) have suggested that the numbers of heat stresspatients, the extent of environmental problems such asatmospheric and water contamination, and the effects
on ski-related industries would increase and intensity.

Table 2 Effects on industry.
Meteorological phenomenon
Average air temperature rises by 1°C
from June to August.
High-temperature period is extended.
Cumulus (thunder) clouds form easily.
Air temperature rises by 1°C insummer.
Average temperature rises.
Annual average temperature rises by
1°C.
Precipitation patterns and amounts
change.
Cooling water temperatures rise by
1°C.
(Harasawa & Nishioka, 2003; Yoshida, 2004)

Effects on industry
Volume of summer goods increases by 5%.
Consumption of air-conditioners, beer, cool drinks, frozen desserts, etc., increases.
Development of lightning-resistant products is required for devices used for
information and natural energy supply.
Increase of about 5 million kW in demand for power (1.6 million general households)
Rise in factory utilization rate caused by increased air-conditioner demand andproduction of summer goods; in urban areas, increased demand for power in summer.
Consumption of household energy may increase in southern Japan, whereas the total
amount of energy for cooling, heating and power generation may decrease in northern
Japan.
Clothing consumption index decreases by 10% (depending on district).
Generation of electricity by water power, management and operation of dam facilities
and securing of cooling water are influenced.
Output of power generation decreases by 0.2% to 0.4% (thermal power) and by 1.0% to
2.0% (nuclear power).

Effects of Global Warming on Civil Life in Japan

Concrete examples have been described, as follows:
i. A rise in air temperature by 1°C would increasechemical oxygen demand (COD) by 0.8 to 2.0 mg/L
(Fukushima et al., 2000).
ii. A rise in air temperature by 3°C would decrease
the number of ski visitors by 30% (Fukushima
et al., 2002; Fujimori et al., 2001).
iii. A rise in air temperature would change the demand
for air-conditioners in the public and business sectors and would influence the demand for energy inthe industrial sector, centering on seasonal industries (Committee of Global Warming Impacts on
Civil Life, 2003).
5.2 Local heavy rains and typhoonsa) Local heavy rains
The intensity of local heavy rains is increasing.
When typhoon No. 22 attacked the Kanto region in
2004, the sewerage system was capable of pumping
50 mm of rain/hour; it could not drain any more thanthis, and partial flooding of the district occurred.
When local heavy rains hit Shizuoka Prefecture, therainfall exceeded 80 mm/hour and affected many people because the Tokaido Shinkansen was forced to
shut down. Although, in the past, a maximum of six
typhoons had hit Japan in one year, a record-high ten
typhoons hit Japan in 2004. These typhoons occurred
for more than six months – from May to November –and people suffered from their effects.
The damage caused by such extreme weather
events has been expanding all over the world. A
hazard report summary compiled by the International
Red Cross reported that the number of natural calamities in the world is increasing, and especially the degree of flood damage (International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2004).
b) Effects of extreme weather events
On the other hand, it has been pointed out that theincreasing degree of damage from extreme weather
events has been a problem for the victims (Changnon
et al., 2000; Meehl et al., 2000). Assets, as well as
populations, tend to be concentratd in large metropolises in coastal areas. This change in societies suffering from extreme weather events has acted synergistically to multiply the damage greatly.
c) Effects of typhoons
According to climate model studies, the number oftyphoons is predicted to decrease through global
warming, whereas the force of the winds at the centeris predicted to intensify. The number of articles mentioning this increase in intensity of typhoons or hurricanes has increased over the last three decades(Emanuel, 2005; Levinson, 2005).
The Association of British Insurers in the UK(2005) released a report summarizing the economic
damage caused by typhoons and cyclones. The
amount of damage caused by four hurricanes attacking
the USA and neighboring countries in 2004 reached
56 billion dollars (610 million yen); of this, 30 billion

225

dollars’ (3.3 trillion yen) worth was covered by insurance. In Japan, the amount of damage caused by the
10 typhoons reached 14 billion dollars (1.5 trillionyen); of this, 7 billion dollars’ (760 billion yen) worth
was covered by insurance. To determine future increases in the damage caused by typhoons if global
warming were to progress, the report assumed that thecentral force of the wind would increase by 6% by
2080, using a scenario in which the concentration of
CO2 in the atmosphere would increase 2.2 times. The
report predicted that in Japan, for instance, insurance
payments for damages would increase from 15 to 20
billion dollars (1.6 to 2.2 trillion yen) by 10 to 14 billion dollars (1.1 to 1.5 trillion yen). Powerful anddamaging typhoons do not occur every year, but they
can cause large amounts of damage when they do.

6. Conclusionsa) Unexpected effects appear in the initial stage ofglobal warming
If global warming were to progress gradually overa long period of 50 to 100 years and extreme weather
events were to occur in the short term, then the damage would be quite large. Since the 1980s, the degreeof damage caused by extreme events has increased.
Insurance payouts have also increased. The damage
caused by natural disasters occurs not only because of
the scale of the extreme weather events but also because of population growth and the concentration ofassets in cities located in coastal areas. However, thescale and distribution of extreme weather events may
certainly have changed.
b) Detection and observation of global warming
Because of the progress of global warming and its
effects on various fields and in various regions, observation and monitoring of its effects are required. In
particular, according to the results of a traditional casestudy, we need to monitor vulnerable ecosystems andsocial economies to determine what the effects are andto formulate rapid adaptation measures to reduce thedegree of these effects.
c) Full-scale examination of measures to reduce
damage
The essential element of measures to prevent
global warming is to reduce emissions of greenhousegases, which are the causative substances. Furthermore, adaptation of our bodies and systems to thewarming climate is important at present. Such adaptation includes using our traditional experience of having acclimated in the past to climate change. Cereal
production has already been adjusted to weatherchanges and to new technologies that have alreadybecome entrenched. Studies of adaptations to reduce
the predicted degree of the effects of global warming
have now increased in importance.

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H. HARASAWA

Acknowledgment
This report is based mainly on the results of astudy by the Ministry of the Environment, entitled“Integrative Study of Global Warming Effects andAdaptations.” The author cordially acknowledges all
those people who cooperated with this integrative
study.
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(Received 20 August 2006, Accepted 26 September 2006)