Low Carbon Societies in China: Challenges and Opportunities

Kejun JIANG
Kjiang@eri.org.cn
Energy Research Institute, China

1ERI, China

Primary Energy Demand, Basline Scenario

Mtce

7000
6000

Bio-Diesel

5000

EthonalBiomass Power

4000

Wind

3000

Nuclear

2000

Hydro

1000

N.Gas

02000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil
CoalYear2

Primary Energy Demand in China, policy scenario
6000
5000
Mtce

4000
3000
2000
1000
02000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

Bio-Diesel
EthonalBiomass PowerWind
Nuclear
Hydro
N.Gas
OilCoal3

Mt-C

CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China,
IPAC Results
40003500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0Domestic
Willing
Low carbon techand change ofconsumption
Demonstrated byDevelopedCountries 70% to80% emission
reduction?

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
YearBaseline
Low Energy Policy
LCS

Global 50% Proposal

4Policy measures

Possible policy tools

Applica-Effects in laboratory experiments

bility1. Encourage of energy Tax/Subsidy

++

The

efficiency investment

Low/Zero interest loans++

energy intensity in west Europe andInformation++

China will be lessened by 30% in+++

2050.

Appliances brand/criteria

Common Policy
Settings inScenario AnalysisInvestment

indistance

betweenend-usepublic ++transportation
Industrial

voluntary ++agreement
2. Energy tax and the “Green tax”- petrol/coal +++Implement the energy tax (for alleffectsfuels) with the same standards as

oil tax

the petrol and natural gas tax
implemented

inindustry

andtransport in west Europe
3. Impacts to the end-use Tax/subsidy, such as the +Decrease of coal consumption inenergy market

construction sector

emission standards towards
natural gas and bio-fuels+++

4. High efficient and Technology and emission ++Till 2050, 15-20% of electricity willgas-based

use the combined cycle gas.

combined standards

cycle (CC) in electricity System reformation
generation

R&D projects

5. Advanced Clean Coal Investment
(ACC)

++

Optionthe high efficiency production sinceincluding IGCC
6.

Decrease

All coal-fired power plants realize
2010.

in++

transmission loss

Lossesduringelectricity

distribution and transmission will
decrease to the level of OECD
countries (8%).

7. Increase in the share Technology and emission +of nuclear power

standards
Quota

electricity production will increasesystem/Renewable

8. Increase in the share energy obligationsofrenewableenergy System reformationsuch as solar power and R&D projects
wind power

The share of nuclear power in

Investment

from 7% (B2-C) to 20%.
++

Renewableenergypowergeneration will increase from 7% to20% by 20205

key technologies in long terma． Modern renewable energy production technology (solarpower and etc)
b． Advanced nuclear power generation system
c． Fuel celld． IGCC/advanced clean coal technology/carbon capture andcarbon storage technologies
e． Advanced gas turbine
f． Unconventional natural gas and crude oil production
technology
g． Synthetic fuel production technology
h. Ultra-low-power and zero-emission advanced transporttechnologies
620% Energy Intensity Target in 11th Five Year Plan
• 20% energy intensity reduction within 11th Five YearPlan(2005-2010)• Very good for China, not only for energy, but also forenvironment, economic structure optimization• Most ambitious target in the world: making full effort toreach the target• One of the Biggest actions on GHG mitigation:
190million t-C reduction in 2010 compared with baseline,
410million t-C reduction compared with no intensitychange7Countermeasures announced to reach the target• Allocate target to all provinces.
• 1000 large energy user monitoring program in national level,
but local government extend the number for monitoring.
• Government investment on energy saving project:23.5billion Yuan in 2007 from government budget.
• Energy saving and emission reduction is one key indicatorfor local chief government official.
• Closing small coal fired power plants, steel making plants,coke making plants etc.
• Strong implementation of 10 energy conservation programin the long-term energy conservation plan.
• Establishing energy conservation statistic data system• Energy efficiency standard• Fuel tax/energy tax
8• Reduce tax rebate for energy intensive products