ICHARM Commemorative Symposium“Allience for Localism”
UNU Tokyo 14 September 2006

Water for the Future and the Future of Water:
Global and Local Challenges
András Szöllösi-Nagy
Secretary, Deputy Assistant Director General
International Hydrological Programme
UNESCOInternational
HydrologicalProgramme (IHP)

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)•The cycle is changing?
•More disasters ?
•Less water for people?
•Crisis is looming?
•Global or local?
2

CENTRAL TENET
Humans are changing the global water
system in a globally-significant way
without…..
adequate knowledge of the system andthus its response to changeGlobal change drivers

U.S. Bureau of the Census• Population growth, movement and agestructures• Geo-political changes and realignments• Trade and subsidies• Technological changes• Climate changeGlobal change impacts• Global change is more than global climate change• It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions• A constellation of changes, many global in domain
For example, we see large changes in:

Richards (1991), WRI(1990)

Mackenzie et al (2002)

Reid & Miller (1989)NOAAVitousek (1994)

The Global Water System• Water Cycling
Deeply Embedded
in Earth System• Interconnections
are Strong• Change to One
Part Reverberates
Throughout

Does the cycle accelerate?

Water hazard
as a major challenge¾Intensifying and increasing occurrence of water
related hazards in many parts of the world¾Serious concern on climate change such as
extreme hydrologic events and sea level risingMajorMajor floods
floods andand droughts
droughts worldwide
worldwide inin 2002
2002
Germany

China
China

Germany

Korea
DroughtFlood

ドイツ
Austria

Czech

USA

RussiaFranceAfghanistan

China
Korea

TurkeySenegalUSAMexico

Nepal
Bangladesh
Ethiopia

India

Haiti/ Jamaica
Philippines

Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Kenya

Kenya

EcuadorIndonesia
Micronesia

Peru
Bolivia
Uruguay

There is pressing need to develop advanced risk
management on water hazard in order to secure
human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic
development and poverty alleviation.

Rural and Urban Population Density

GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES
Relation between water availability and population

If the current trend continues, sub-Saharan Africa will not reach MDG
water target

Progress indrinking watercoverage, 19902002(UNICEF/WHOJMP)Many countries not on track to reach MDG sanitation target

Progress insanitation
coverage, 19902002(UNICEF/WHOJMP)LOOMING WATER
CRISES

Rainfall affects growth..
the case of Zimbabwe
15.0

10.0
1.0
5.0

0.0
-1.0

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

0.0

1979

Real GDP growth (%)

2.0-2.0-5.0-3.0

Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0

-4.0

Years

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

3.0

History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction

1800

1900

1950

2000

2000
• 700% increase inwater held by river
systems

Stored Runoff< 2% annual flow
21025
50100>100• Several years ofresidence timechange in manybasins• Tripling of river
runoff travel times
globally (from 20 upto 60 days)• Substantial impact
on aquatic
biodiversity• Interception of 30%
of continental TSS
flux
From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.

Infrastructure gap: Water storage

Water storage per person (m3)
6,150
4,729
3,255
1,406

Laos746

1,287
Thailand

2,486

NorthAmerica

Australia

BrazilChinaSouthAfrica

43
Ethiopia

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,0003,000
2,0001,0000

The challenge we all have
How to put water in the mindsof people?

What happened over thepast years?

• 1997– 1st World Water Forum (Marrakech)– UN GA Special Session 19 (Rio +5)“…water will become a major limiting factor in socioeconomic development…”– UN GA 51
Adoption of the UN Convention on the Law of the NonNavigational Uses of Transboundary Water Courses

Aquifer –Transboundary Issues

Water Resources are recognized as a
UNESCO Principal Priority
A new consensus is emerging
in international thinking about
Water ResourcesWorld Water Assessment Programme(WWAP)The State of The World’s
Freshwater Resources

Sanitation

Satellite Land Cover
MAJOR CHALLENGE: Harmonize
Geophysical and Social Dimensions Approaches

From Potential Conflict
to Co-operation Potential

Water for Peacea contribution to

World Water Assessment Programme

The International Hydrological Programme(IHP)
Intergovernmental scientific programme on
Water Resources of theUN system* Created in 1975 after the International Hydrological Decade* Member States define needs and plans of phases* Growing emphasis on management and social aspects

IHP Phases
1965-1974 IHD: Experimental Basins
World Catal. of Very Large Floods
World Water Balance & WR of the Earth
1975-1980 IHP-I
1981-1983 IHP-II
1984-1989 IHP- III
1990-1995 IHP- IV Hydrology and Water Resources for
Sustainable Development
1996-2001 IHP-V Hydrology and Water Resources underVulnerable Environment
2002-2007 IHP-VI Water Interactions:
Systems at Risk and Social Challenges

Water Interactions :Systems at Risk and Social
Challenges
Phase VI (2002-2007)
International Hydrological Programmeof UNESCO
Themes1 Global changes and water resources
2 Integrated Watershed and Aquifer Dynamics
3 Land Habitat Hydrology4 Water and Society
5 Water Education and Training

Evolution of IHP phases: continuity with change
1990-1995 IHP IV
Hydrology and Water Resources Sustainable Development
in a Changing Environment

1996-2001 IHP-V
Hydrology and Water Resources Development
in a Vulnerable Environment

2002-2007 IHP-VI
Water Interactions:
Systems at Risk and Social Challenges

2007-2012 IHP-VII (proposed)
Water Dependencies:
Systems under Stress and Societal Responses

Interlinkages of IHPFRIEND HELP JIIHP (PUB)

UNESCO Chairs
in Water

T5

UNESCO Institutes /Centers

T1
T2

T4T3
UNESCO -IHE
Institute for
Water Education
AssociatedProgrammes

JIIHP

ISIIFIWater Stress Changes
to 2025• 80% of future stress from
population& development,
not climate change!

•Correct Priorities?
(E.g. 85% US global change
research funding toclimate and carbon)

UNH

Vörösmarty et al. 2000

Damages of Floods in 1990's
100,000(Million USD)

Economic Losses

Asia
China

10,000Japan
Europe

1,000

N.Am
Others100
1101001,000

10,000Death Tolls (Persons)

100,000 1,000,000

Need for a new initiative
2002

World Summit on Sustainable
Development (Johannesburg)

2003

3rd World Water Forum(Kyoto, Shiga & Osaka)- Necessity to improve risk
management measures,
technologies and capacity building
relevant to flood-related disasters

Fukuoka Flood in 1999

(Source : MLIT)

Urban expansion taking place
downward Æ Underground floodrisk
 Recent developments Æ Long termrisks are not experienced(Source: Herat, UNU)

Fukuoka simulation

At Hakata station

Volume of water entered into
underground space:•2,017 m3 (simulated volume)•1,320 m3 (total pumped water station)

IFIInternational Flood Initiative/ProgrammeIIASAThe UN inter-agency
International Flood Initiative
Mission Statement
The International Flood Initiative promotes an integrated
approach to flood management, at the same time,
reducing social, environmental and economic risks that
result in and from floods and increasing the benefits
from floods and the use of flood plains.
UNESCO, WMO, UNU, ISDR
IAHS, IIASAOverall objectives
The overall objective of IFI is to build capacities in countries in order to gain
and advocate better understanding and handling of hazards, vulnerabilities
and benefits involved with floods by promoting all measures leading to thatend by applying the following guiding principles:z Living with floodsz Equityz Empoweredparticipationz Inter-disciplinarity and trans-sectorality
z International and regional cooperation

Specific objectives• Improve data collection and analysis for flood management;• Enlarge the knowledge-base in respect to risk and benefits of floods;• Enhance the benefits of floods;• Develop and improve institutional frameworks for flood management;• Develop area-specific adaptation strategies;• Develop approaches to assess and reduce vulnerability;• Improve floodplain management in rural and urban areas;• Optimize a mix of structural and non-structural approaches;• Improve forecasting and early warning of floods for both rural and urban
areas;

International Centre for
Water Hazard and Risk Management
under the auspices of UNESCO(UNESCO-ICHARM, Tsukuba, Japan)

The ICHARM BuildingResearch Staff
Center buildingOffice space: 20 (at the initial stage): will be completed inautumn 2005
: 2,000m2

The Three Pillars of UNESCO-ICHARM

Research
Data/
Information

Curriculum
Results/
Outcomes

Participation

Knowledge

Information
networking
Network

Training& Capacity
building

Activities- Research -Contribution to international projects such as WWAPand IFI
Hydraulic / hydrological prediction, observation,modeling and analysis
Risk assessment and risk management technologies
for water-related hazards
・・・and others

ISIInternational Sediment InitiativeHuman Fingerprint on Land-to-Ocean Linkages--Intercepted sediments that “nourish” our coastlines• Coastal zone now gets 30% less sediment• 700% increase in water held in rivers• Tripling of river runoff travel times

UNH

Vörösmarty et al. 2003

International Research and Training
Centre on
Erosion and Sedimentation
under the auspices of UNESCO(UNESCO-IRTCES, Beijing, China)Flow
Flow RegimesRegimes fromfrom International
International Experimental
Experimental andandNetworkNetwork Data
Data
An International Collaborative Studyin Regional Hydrology

FRIENDFRIEND :: aa global
global projectproject
The primary objective is to improve understanding of hydrological variability and similarity
across time and space in order to develop hydrological science and practical design methods.

Hydrology for the Environment, Life andPolicy
http://www.unesco.org/water/ihp/help

To deliver social, economic and environmental benefit tostakeholders through sustainable and appropriate use of waterby directing hydrological science towards improved integrated
catchment management basins

Real people

Real catchments

Real answers

FRIEND and HELP Networks

Demonstration

Evolving

Operational

ProposedPrecipitation

Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures ofHumanity and Climate Change (GRAPHIC)

UNESCOIGRAC
GWSP

“There is no sustainable
development without
adequate information about
the state of the Earth and its
environment”
Statement at WSSD

High Technology Earth Systems Tools•Satellite data
•Simulation models•Geospatial analysis tools
They show promise but…..

The data issue• The case of Africa• Interconnectedness through data
• Local data networks:The ethical choice vs.
The global needs to mimimize bias
• GEOSS: space and in situ observations• Will data secrecy be gone?
• Will it be replaced by sharing?
• What is the way out of trouble?

International
HydrologicalProgramme (IHP)

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

60

WATER EDUCATIONANDCAPACITY BUILDINGExisting Centers and Institutes
One CATEGORY 1:• UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education (Delft, TheNetherlands)
Twelve CATEGORY 2 Centers:• IRTCUD – International Research & Training Center (Belgrade,Serbia & Montenegro)• IRTCES - International Research & Training Center onErosion & Sedimentation (Beijing, China)• CATHALAC – Centro del Agua para los Trópicos Húmedos de LAC(Panama City, Panama)• Humid Tropics Hydrology Center for South East Asia & thePacific (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

Existing Centers and Institutes
CATEGORY 2 (cont.):• RCTWS – Regional Center for Training and Water Studies in Arid &Semiarid Zones (Cairo, Egypt)• RCUWM – Regional Center on Urban Water Management(Teheran, Iran)• ICQHHS – International Center on Qanats and Historic Hydraulic
Structures (Yazd, I.R. of Iran)Existing Centers and Institutes
New CATEGORY 2 Centers approved by the 33rd General Conference:•International Center for Water Hazards and Risk Management ICHARM (Tsukuba, Japan)•••

IHP-HELP Center on Water Law and Policy, Dundee, UK
European Regional Ecohydrology Center (Łódz, Poland)
Centro Regional para la Gestión del Agua en Zonas Urbanas LAC (Bogotá,Colombia)• CAZALAC - Centro del Agua para Zonas Aridas y Semiáridas de LAC(La Serena, Chile)

CONTINUE COMPREHENSIVE, GLOBALASSESSMENTS AND CONSTANT VIGILANCE• Humans are now a part of the system--New challenges to understand their role in theEarth System--New opportunities for gaining knowledge--Will our role be domination or adaptation?