29th Japan Road Congress
International Symposium
Risk Management for Roads in a Changing
Climate (RIMAROCC): a European
Methodological Approach
Yves Ennesser: EGIS, France2 November 20111

The Context of RIMAROCC
 “ERA-NET ROAD – Coordination and Implementation of Road
Research in Europe” is a Coordination Action funded by the 6thFramework Program of the EC. The ENR partners were Austria,Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom
 “Road Owners Getting to Grips with Climate Change” was atrans-national joint research program initiated by ERA-NETROAD
 A call for proposals was launched in March 2008. Nineteenproposals were jointly evaluated and 4 projects selected covering
the topics:––––Winter maintenance (IRWIN)
Pavements (P2R2C2)
Risk management/analysis (RIMAROCC), andDrainage (SWAMP)

2 November 20112

The Purpose of RIMAROCC

To develop a common method on risk
analysis and risk management for roads withregard to climate change in Europe
Project team
– SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden)– Egis: Engineering, Project Development, andmotorway Infrastructure Operations (France)– Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soiland Infrastructure (Netherlands)– NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)
2 November 2011

3The RIMAROCC Method– Consists of seven steps– Is in line with ISO 31000– Is designed to be compatible, and to operate in parallel withexisting methods– Is designed for road risk management at all operational andgeographical levels (structure, section, network, territory)
Communication

1.
Cont
ext
analy
sis

2 November 2011

2. Risk
identific
ation

3.
Risk
analy
sis

4.
Risk
evalu
ation

5.
Risk
mitigation

6.
Impl
eme
ntation ofactio
nplans7.
Monitoringreview,capit
alizationFeedbackloop

4How to use RIMAROCC?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method
Case study Network level, France
Case study Network level, The Netherlands
Case study Section level, Norway
Case study Structure level, Sweden
Technical background report

2 November 2011

5

A Guidebook

Part 1- Basis for climate andrisk management
Part 2 - Method and Guidancepart 3 - Case studies

2 November 2011

6Basis for Climate ...
ExtremeExtremeDraught
rainfall events
Wind speed
CriticalclimateMajor risks
to road infrastructure
Snowfall
Seasonal andFog daysweightedaccordingtotheirimportancefor the road sector
variables
annual average(1: useful to 4: of primary importance)
rainfall Flooding of roadways
Extreme Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage
rainfalllevel of expectedThaw (cycles)- events
theSeaamountfrom significant
roads Max change is estimated,rise
increase++, toOverloading
significant-ofdecreasedrainage systems,
causing erosion(heavytemperatureand flooding
showers andand consecutive Traffic hindrance and safety
long rain
Frosthot daysperiods)

2 November 20117

Method and Guidance
The RIMAROCC method consists of seven steps, each witha number of sub-steps. All steps are presented in the sameway, starting with a summary of the step and a list of thesub-steps. The sub-steps are structured as follows:a) Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-stepb) Output – describing the outcome of the sub-stepc) Method – presenting the recommended methods orproceduresd) Data collection – describing what data is needed to performthe sub-step and how to obtain it.
e) Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example toimprove the readability. More examples can be found in thecase studies.

2 November 20118Step 1 – CONTEXT ANALYSIS
1. Objectives

By establishing the context, the authority responsible for the climate
risk management study articulates its objectives, defines the external
and internal parameters to be taken into account when managing
risk, sets the scope and risk criteria for the remaining process, anddefines the area under study.

2. Sub-steps

The context analysis is structured into three successive sub-steps:•Establish a general context•Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis•Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scaleof analysis
The general context is the same whatever the scale of analysis(structure, section, network, area). It differs when addressing
particular scales.

2 November 2011

9

RIMAROCC

Example: thespecific context fora network scale
analysis

2 November 201110

Example: risk criteria and indicators for a section
scale analysis
Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables. The firsttable shows criteria for categorising exposure, the second table shows criteria forassessing vulnerability and the third table shows criteria for assessing consequences.
Criteria for assessing exposure
Criteria for assessing exposure
E1:Frequency of key climate
conditions/past extreme events
E2: Exposure duration
E3: Exposed area
E4: Exposed objects/people

2 November 2011Low
<0.001/yr
Hours
Small area
Smallnumber

Medium0.001/yr0.01/yr
Days

High
0.01/yr0.1/yr
Weeks

Very high> 0.1/yr
Months
Large area
Large
number11Step 2 – RISK IDENTIFICATION
1. Objectives

The risk manager should identify sources of risk, areas of impact,
unwanted events (including changes in circumstances) and theircauses and potential consequences. The aim of this step is togenerate a comprehensive list of risks based on events that mightstop, degrade or delay the normal operation of the road system, orcreate trouble or damage in the exposed area.

2. Sub-steps

Sub-steps are proposed in relation to the risk definition. Risk is an
unwanted event which is characterised as:

R isk = function of [Threat, Vulnerabilities, Consequences]
This step is therefore structured into three sub-steps:–––

2 November 2011

Identify risk sources or factors (threats)
Identify vulnerabilities
Identify possible consequences
12

Example of vulnerabilities analysed on a network scale
SectionLengthin km

Age /designstandards

Traffic(veh./day)

AX-1

10-15

< 1960

AX-4

25-30

19601970

60,000–70,00040,000–50,000

AY-1

20-25

19801990

20,00030,00019801990

20,000–30,000AY-2

2 November 201120-25

Exposure to climate
eventsCurrentWith CCsituation (estimates)*
Overflow + 10 %for Q10
additional
flow
Extreme+5%
windspeed >120 km/h
Average+5%
seasonal
rainfall:
500 mmAverage-5%
numberof frost
days: 20

Sensitive
elements intheinfrastructure
UndersizeddrainagesystemBridgeshowing
structuraldefects
Hydromorphic
grounds

Pavement
cracks13

Step 3 – RISK ANALYSIS
1. Objectives

Risk analysis involves developing an understanding of therisks. The risk analysis provides input to risk evaluation,
serves as a decision basis for risk treatment, and for selecting
the most appropriate risk treatment strategies and methods.

2. Sub-steps• Establish risk chronology and scenarios• Determine the impact of risk
• Evaluate occurrences• Provide a risk overview

2 November 201114

Example of risk overview at the structure scale
All risks are scored using criteria in order to characterize the risk magnitude.
The risk table below summarises the probability, exposure, sensitivity andconsequence indicator scores for each risk scenario.

R1: Extreme
rain + flooding
R2: Extreme
rain + collapse
R3: Spring flood+ floodingR4: Spring flood+ collapse

2 November 2011

Intangible

Financial

Environ.

Property

Persons

Consequences
Standard

Knowledge

Information

Sensitivity

Speed

People/Object

Area

Probability Exposure
for riskscenario(year-1)
Duration

Risk scenario

0,08

E1 E2 E3 S1 S2 S3 S4 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 10,02

22242

1133

1

2

10,08

22222

11231

1

10,02

22222113312115

Step 4 – RISK EVALUATION
1. Objectives

The purpose of risk evaluation is to assist the risk manager inmaking decisions, based on the outcome of the risk analysis, about
which risks need treatment and the priorities for treatment
implementation. Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk
found during the analysis process with risk criteria defined when thecontext was established. Based on this comparison, the need fortreatment can be considered.

2. Sub-steps• Risk prioritisation• Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk
• Determine which risks are acceptable

2 November 201116

Example of risk prioritisation at the structure scale
Risk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios.
ProbabilityOnce

in:

4

10

R1years

R3
Increaseswithclimatechange3
R2100

R4years

21000

Decreases

withNoexpectedchangeclimatechangeyears

1

1
Minor

2 November 20112
Moderate

3
Major

4

Consequence

Catastrophic

17

Step 5 – RISK MITIGATION
1. Objectives
Risk mitigation involves identifying, appraising and selecting one orseveral options for modifying the non-acceptable risks. A
combination of the identified measures can be changed into astrategy for the coming years in order to cope with climate change
and keep risks acceptable. This step also includes securing financing
as well as documenting in an action plan how the chosen adaptation
measures will be implemented.

2. Sub-steps• Identify options• Appraise options• Negotiation with funding agencies• Present an action plan
2 November 201118

Example of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale
The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation tipping
point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related measures. Thex-axis is the time scale, and. The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present the blue arrows
show the timeframe for which each measure is effective, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable.
Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show
the possibilities of changing from one measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on theconsequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs.

2 November 2011

19Step 6 – IMPLEMENTATIONOF ACTION PLAN
1. Objectives
In this step the action plan is presented in detail; responsibilities for
implementation are addressed; resources are allocated;
performance indicators are selected. All these elements being
specified, the action plan is implemented. This is a strategic stepwhich involves stakeholders from several departments: roads, civil
security, finance, etc. Network and territorial scale analyses require
information on which geographical units of the road organisation
should be involved.

2. Sub-steps• Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility• Implement an adaptation action plan

2 November 201120

Step 7 – MONITORING,REVIEW & CAPITALISATION
1. Objectives
Since risk management is a learning process this step aims tomonitor and review the implemented actions and to capitalise theknowledge gained through climatic events and implementation ofaction plans.

2. Sub-steps• Regular monitoring and review• Re-plan in case of new data or delay in implementation• Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic eventsand implementation progress
2 November 201121

Thank you for your attention
RIMAROCC Reports
http://www.eranetroad.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=76&Itemid=79

Presenter’s contact

yves.ennesser@egis.fr

2 November 2011

Date22