Mr. Theara Khoun (Policy Specialist, UNDP Cambodia)

Title: Examining the impacts of COVID-19 Cash Transfer Program on Poverty in Cambodia

Abstract:
This research aims to inves gate the impacts of the COVID-19 Cash Transfer Program, anuncondi onal cash transfer (UTC) program in Cambodia, and its contribu on to poverty reduc on.
The study will examine both the monetary aspect, based on aggregate food and non-foodconsump on expenditures, and the mul dimensional aspect of poverty, us ing a global index of
10 indicators related to educa on, health, and living standards. The mo va on for this study
stems from the increasing vulnerability to poverty in Cambodia, which has been furtherexacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Since June 2020, the Royal Government of Cambodia has
implemented the cash transfer program to provide social protec on to the poorest and mostvulnerable households, represen ng over 2.7 million people, who have been adversely aﬀectedby the pandemic. However, these programs are scheduled to terminate by March 2023, making
it necessary to analyze their impacts and iden fy correc ve measures.
Using the method of Diﬀerence-in-Diﬀerence with Covariates on two rounds of cross-sec onal
data – the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey for 2019-2020 and 2021-2022 – the study has foundthat the program has had a signiﬁcant impact on reducing mul dimensional poverty in Cambodia.
Overall, the mul dimensional poverty rate among cash recipients decreased by 3.4% compared
to non-recipients during the observed periods, and several indicators showed notable
improvements. For instance, the depriva on of the year of schooling indicator dropped by 3.1%,
food security improved by 3.3%, access to electricity increased by 2.4%, access to improved toilets
rose by 3.2%, and the asset indicator improved by 1.7%. Although some other indicators also
showed improvement, these changes were not sta s cally signiﬁcant. However, the program's
impact on monetary poverty yielded a discouraging and counterintui ve result, as it resulted in
an increase in the monetary poverty rate by up to 8.8%. Further analyses are currently being
conducted to examine this counterintui ve ﬁnding. Some preliminary hypotheses suggest thatthe long-term cash support provided by the program may have encouraged idleness andincreased borrowing for non-food expenses, resul ng in more restric ve food consump on.
Alterna vely, the COVID-19 restric ons and lockdowns imposed during the observed periods may
have dispropor onately aﬀected poor households in terms of access to food and non -foodconsump on in comparison to non-recipients.
Based on addi onal analyses, the study intends to propose several policy recommenda ons for
programma c improvement. These recommenda ons include enhancing the targe ng of poverty,
integra ng ﬁnancial literacy into the rou ne cash transfer program, and transi oning
beneﬁciaries from long-term cash support towards enhanced produc vity and resilience throughskill training and posi ve behavioral change, among other strategies.

Mr. Nelson G. Cainghog (Assistant Professor, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Title: The strengthening of the weak state and the increasing signiﬁcance of welfare policies in
the Philippines

Abstract:
Scholars of Philippine poli cs have a consensus that the Philippine state is weak, either in termsof the capacity, autonomy from vested interests, or both. While there are occasional islands ofstrength, these were under the backdrop of state weakness making such islands interes ng
subjects of inquiry. The clientelist nature of Philippine poli cs is symptoma c of this weakness
especially its lack of autonomy. The implementa on of two major programs—the free public
higher educa on and the condi onal cash transfer—that entailed signiﬁcant state investments
seems counterintui ve viewed in this backdrop as both programs are seen as programma c
instead of clientelist. In the case of free public higher educa on program, the government
increased funding for higher educa on by around 600 million USD in 2018. Condi onal cashtransfer was also allocated close to 2 billion USD in the same year. Did the state suddenly acquirecapacity and autonomy against more established interests vying for such large chunks of state
resources? This chapter aims to contextualize the situa on of the Philippine state in the broader
interna onal literature of state strength. While recognizing that the Ph ilippines s ll displays
a ributes of weakness, there ha d been changes since scholars of Philippine poli cs publishedsuch indictment. Drawing from the compara ve literature on state strength, a typology isproposed to make sense of the change in the Philippines and poten ally in other similarly situatedcountries. This typology is then applied to analyze Philippine welfare policies since the pre-war
era un l the me of President Rodrigo Duterte where gains in state capacity and autonomy
allowed the Philippine state to invest in welfare programs. It also oﬀers possible prospects forstate strength and welfare provision post-pandemic.

Dr. Chanrith Ngin (Director, Centre for Natural Resources and Environment, Cambodia
Development Resource Ins tute)

Title: Is Cambodia a model of China’s Belt and Road Ini a ve?

Abstract:
Cambodia is perceived as an ‘iron-clad’ friend of China, who enjoys a ‘shared prosperity’ with thela er. Chinese aid and investment have created jobs, spurring economic growth and poverty
reduc on in Cambodia. The two countries have been hailed by some scholars as a model of the‘Belt and Road Ini a ve’ (BRI) partnership. In this paper, I use a comprehensive analy cal
framework to examine the diﬀerent dimensions of BRI investment in Cambodia to discuss this‘model’. I ﬁnd that the focus on BRI in Cambodia is mainly on infrastructure-related economic
investment, which obscures environmental and socio-cultural tenets of BRI. While economic
beneﬁts have been posi ve, par cularly in rela on to debt management, a long -term economic
cost-beneﬁt analysis of infrastructure projects is lacking. This raises a cri cal concern about their
future viability vis-à-vis the wider economic growth. Plus, technology and human capital, which
are integral parts of BRI, are under-studied. To what extent technological transfer and skill
development have been done is unknown. Also, ‘people-to-people’ exchange, which is a crucial
cultural aspect of BRI, has received minimal a en on. This paper concludes that the ignorance ofenvironmental and socio-cultural elements of BRI could jeopardize economic proﬁts and stain thewider partnership. A model of investment should go beyond economic growth and emphasize
environmental well-being and human rela ons.

Dr. Mario J. Aguja (Professor of Sociology and Director, Ins tute for Peace and Development in
Mindanao, Mindanao State University)

Title: The Mindanao Peace Process: Challenges and Prospects

Abstract:
Nego a ng a peace agreement is a challenging endeavor, but implemen ng such an accord
proves to be an even more formidable task. In 2014, a er 17 years of protracted peacenego a ons, the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liber a on
Front(MILF) oﬃcially inked the 2014 Comprehensive Peace Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB).
This historic agreement aimed to quell the insurgency that had violently plagued Mindanao fordecades. This paper delves into an analysis of the progress made in implemen ng the CAB.
Speciﬁcally, it highlights the architecture of the agreement, the ongoing advancements in its
execu on, the encountered challenges, and the poten al prospects moving forward.
The study relies on a combina on of secondary data and insights gathered through interviews
with key informants in mately involved in the current state of the peace process. It argues thatthe task of implemen ng a peace agreement, following extensive years of nego a on, within acompressed meframe is inherently complex.
Findings from the study indicate that while the peace agreement is underpinned by thedetermina on of the involved par es, its implementa on is hampered by the ambiguity inherent
in some of its provisions. Addi onally, unforeseen external factors, o e n beyond the control of
the nego a ng par es, further complicate the execu on process.
In essence, this paper sheds light on the intricate dynamics of transi oning from a nego atedpeace agreement to its prac cal applica on, emphasizing the intricate challenges and unforeseen
variables that inﬂuence the successful realiza on of the CAB.