How to achieve LCS? Discussion points•

Realization of the need to take action– Uncertainty with scenarios, but important to identify & prioritize LCS options– Harness maximum potential of cleaner/efficient options; tap “win-win” options•

Developing countries  should NOT become tomorrow what developed countries
are today!
– Decouple emissions & growth: sustainable development with CC co-benefits– Complementarity's vs conflicts with other goals•

Role of developed countries under a future framework of action to stabilizeconcentrations– Set pathways and support access to options•Finance, tech transfer to play a critical role–•Technological leapfrogging crucial; IPRs tech transfer; investment in R&D for adapting to all regions

But, technology alone not sufficient– Lifestyle changes•

What is LCS?
– A desired state in the future where everyone converges to a lower CO2 level per unit of service

Reducing trend of Energy and CO2 Emissions Intensity

Energy Intensity

CO2 Emission Intensity

0.08

0.024
0.022

0.07
kg CO2/Rs of GDP

kgoe/Rs of GDP

0.020
0.018
0.016

0.06

0.05

0.014

0.04
0.012
0.010
20012006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

0.03
2001

2006

2011

BAU

NUC

2021

2026

2031

Year

Year
LOWEFF

2016

EFF

HYB

LOWEFF

BAU

NUC

EFF

HYB2036

Sustainable Consumption: some Comparisons•

Steel: Per capita annual consumption– India (30 kg), World average (135 kg), USA (426 kg), Korea (814 kg), China (111 kg)– In 2031 India (272 kg)•Cement: Per capita annual cement consumption– India (110 kg), World average (273 kg) Korea (1090 kg), Japan (540 kg), Thailand (300 kg),
– In 2031 India (847 kg)•Paper: Per capita annual consumption– India 5.5 kg (2003), 1/9th of world average (50 kg), In 2031 India (37 kg)•Electricity: Per capita annual consumption– In 2001 India ( 361 kWh), USA (13053 kWh), China (1069 kWh), Japan (8092 kWh)
– In 2031 (2994 kWh including captive)•

Motorized Transport: Per capita annual passenger transportation– In 1950: Industrialized region (4,471 km), World average (1,334 km), USA (11,205 km)– In 1997: Industrialized region (16,645 km), World average (4,781 km), USA (24,373 km)– India in 2001 (2,117 km), in 2031 (9,590 km)

Sources: Sustainability mobility 2001, Steel Statistical Year book, 2001, TAR, 2005,IEA,2003.Indicators for OECD countries(2003 edition)

Sustainable Consumption: Some Comparison (low intensity)
CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) toTable (processed food)-excluding cooking

Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport(gm/passenger-km)

Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

250

2.50
t o n C O 2 / m k c a l o f f o o d e n e rg y

2.25
2.00

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.2

193

200
150

1.50

118

100

1.25
1.00

50

0.75
0.50
0.25

0.1

0.1

00.00
India

China

16United
Kingdom

Germany

Netherlands

Australia

United States

Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)India

EU (15 countries)

USACO2emissions (resource consumption)

Convergence corridor of sustainable development
BNorth3

Thresholdcountries

2C
Sustainability
Corridor

1ASouthGDP (time)
INFRAS 1996