ࣀ࣮ࢺ(FRQRPLF,55 ࡜ࡑࡢά⏝ ᮌᮧ೺୍*◁ᮏ┤ᶞ͊2019 ᖺ 1 ᭶ 15 ᪥ᢞ✏2019 ᖺ 3 ᭶ 11 ᪥ཷ⌮ᴫせ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࠊࣜࢫࢡ࠾ࡼࡧࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ୍యⓗ⟶⌮ࡣ௒᪥ⓗ࡞⤫ྜⓗࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮㸦(50㸧ࡢᇶᮏ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡇࢀࡽࡣ (65ࠊ52( ࠾ࡼࡧ 525& ࡟ࡼࡾ㛵㐃௜ࡅࡽࢀࡿ 525& ࡟௦⾲ࡉࢀࡿࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡ࡣࠊ⤒Ⴀᡓ␎ࡢ⟇ᐃࡸࡑࡢศᯒ࡜ᐦ᥋࡟ಀࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ⤒ႠࡢពᛮỴᐃ࡟㔜せ࡞ᙺ๭ࢆᢸࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡶࡢࡢࠊ(65 ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᝟ሗࡀ᫂♧ⓗ࡟ᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠸Ⅼ࡛㝈⏺ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㝈⏺ࢆ⿵᏶ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ⤒῭౯್࣮࣋ࢫࡢෆ㒊཰┈⋡㸦(FRQRPLF,QWHUQDO5DWHRI5HWXUQࠊࡲࡓࡣ (FRQRPLF,55㸧ࢆᑟධࡍࡿ㸬(FRQRPLF,55
ࡣึᮇᢞ㈨࡜ᚲせ㈨ᮏ࡟ᑐࡍࡿෆ㒊཰┈⋡࡜ࡋ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀ (65 ࡜ࡢ㐃ືᛶࡀ㧗࠸࡜࠸࠺≉ᚩࢆᣢࡘ ௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊࡣࡌࡵ࡟ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢ⌮ㄽ㠃ࡢᩚ⌮ࢆ⾜࠸ࠊ↛ࡿࡢࡕ࡟ᐇົ࡬ࡢᛂ⏝࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⪃ᐹࢆ⾜࠺㸬⤖ㄽ࡜ࡋ࡚ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡀ఍♫ࡢពᛮỴᐃࣉࣟࢭࢫ࡟ຠᯝⓗ࡟⤌ࡳ㎸ࡲࢀࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࠊࣜࢫࢡ࠾ࡼࡧࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ୍యⓗ⟶⌮ࢆᙉ໬ࡋࠊࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ఍♫ࡢࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢ⬟ຊࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍ㸬࣮࣮࢟࣡ࢻ㸸 (FRQRPLF,55㸪(65㸪525&㸪ᚲせ㈨ᮏ

ᐩᅜ⏕࿨ಖ㝤┦஫఍♫୺ィ㒊ಖ㝤ィ⌮ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ ࠛ ᮾி㒔༓௦⏣༊ෆᖾ⏫   (PDLONHQLFKLNLPXUD#ILIXNRNXOLIHFRMSᐩᅜ⏕࿨ಖ㝤┦஫఍♫ࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮⤫ᣓ㒊 ࠛ ᮾி㒔༓௦⏣༊ෆᖾ⏫  (PDLOQDRNLVXQDPRWR#ILIXNRNXOLIHFRMS͊

1

リスクと保険75

,QWHUQDO5DWHRI5HWXUQࠊࡲࡓࡣ (FRQRPLF,55㸧 ࡣࡌࡵ࡟ࢆᑟධࡍࡿ㸬 ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࠊࣜࢫࢡ࠾ࡼࡧࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ୍యⓗ⟶⌮ࡣ ᮏ✏ࡢᵓᡂࡣ௨ୗࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬➨  ❶࡛ࡣࣉ௒᪥ⓗ࡞⤫ྜⓗࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮㸦(50㸧ࡢᇶᮏ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ಖࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࡸ཰┈⟶⌮➼࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿ௦⾲ⓗ࡞ᣦ㝤఍♫࡟ࡣ (50 ࡢ㧗ᗘ໬ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊᑗ᮶࡟ࢃࡓࡗ࡚ᶆ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᴫほࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊࡑࢀࡽࢆ⿵᏶ࡍ࡭ࡃಖ㝤㔠ࢆ☜ᐇ࡟ᨭᡶ࠼ࡿࡼ࠺඘ᐇࡋࡓ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࢆ

(FRQRPLF,55 ࢆᑟධࡋࡑࡢ⪃ᐹࢆ⾜࠺㸬➨  ❶࡛ࡣಖࡘ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊಖ㝤ዎ⣙⪅ࡸᰴ୺࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㐺ษ࡟฼ᐇົ࡬ࡢᛂ⏝࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ㸬᭱ᚋ࡟➨  ❶࡛ᮏ┈ࢆ㑏ඖࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࠊ㧗ᗘ࡞ࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮࡟ᨭ࠼ࡽࢀ✏ࡢ㆟ㄽࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࠊㄢ㢟➼࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶゝཬࡍࡿ㸬ࡓࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢྥୖࢆᅗࡿࡇ࡜ࡀồࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ 㸬⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࠊࣜࢫࢡ࠾ࡼࡧࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡣࠊᅗ  ࡢ࡜࠾ ྛᣦᶆࡢᴫせ࡜ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢࡾࠊ࢚ࢥࣀ࣑ࢵࢡ࣭ࢯࣝ࣋ࣥࢩ࣮ẚ⋡㸦(65㸧ࠊ㈨ᮏ
฼┈⋡㸦52(㸧࠾ࡼࡧᚲせ㈨ᮏ฼┈⋡㸦525&㸧࡟ࡼࡗᑟධ࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀ㛵㐃௜ࡅࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࡸ཰┈⟶⌮➼࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿ௦⾲ⓗ࡞ᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ ,55ࠊ5$52&ࠊ525&ࠊ(9$ ࠾ࡼ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ

ࡧ (,& ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᴫほࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࡑࢀࡽࢆ⿵᏶ࡍ࡭
52(ࡃ (FRQRPLF,55 ࢆᑟධࡍࡿ㸬

(65ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥ

 ,55ࠊ5$52&ࠊ525&ࠊ(9$ ࠾ࡼࡧ (,& ࡢᴫせࣜࢫࢡ ,55 ,QWHUQDO5DWHRI5HWXUQ  ึᮇᢞ㈨࡜ᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್ࡀ୍⮴ࡍࡿࡼ࠺

525& ൌ࡞๭ᘬ⋡࡛࠶ࡾࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ

ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࣜࢫࢡࣜࢫࢡ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࠊ  ൌࠊ  ൌσ㸻 ึᮇᢞ㈨

࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࠊ‫ܲܨ‬௧ࡣᑗ᮶ྛᮇࡢ฼┈ࢆ⾲ࡋࠊึᮇᢞ㈨ࡣಖ㝤఍♫ࡢሙྜࠊಖ㝤ເ㞟ேࡢᅗ⤥୚ࡸᰝᐃ㈝⏝࡞࡝ࠊዎ⣙⥾⤖࡟ಀࡿ᪂ዎ⣙㈝ࡀヱ ࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋࡢ཰┈ᣦᶆࡣࣜࢫࢡ࡜཰┈ࢆేࡏᙜࡍࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬࡚ホ౯ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊ㐣ᗘ࡞ࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢᢚไࡸࠊ఍♫ࡢ┠ᶆ཰┈⋡ࡸ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺ⋡࡜ࡢ኱ᑠࢆẚࣜࢫࢡ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚཰┈ᛶࡢప࠸஦ᴗࡢᢕᥱࡀྍ⬟࡜㍑ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾホ౯࡛ࡁࠊᗈࡃά⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿᣦ࡞ࡿ㸬525& ࡟௦⾲ࡉࢀࡿࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡ࡣࠊ⤒ᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤࠊ⡿ᅜࡢ௦⾲ⓗ࡞ࢸ࢟ࢫࢺ࡛࠶ࡿႠᡓ␎ࡢ⟇ᐃࡸࡑࡢศᯒ࡜ᐦ᥋࡟ಀࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡓ

'DYLG%$WNLQVRQ-DPHV:'DOODV>@࡛ࡣࠊࡵ⤒ႠࡢពᛮỴᐃ࡟㔜せ࡞ᙺ๭ࢆᢸࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡶࡢࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ᫬࡟⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿᣦᶆࡢ  ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚⤂௓ࡢࠊ(65 ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᝟ሗࡀ᫂♧ⓗ࡟ᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠸Ⅼ࡛㝈ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬⏺ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㝈⏺ࢆ⿵᏶ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ⤒῭౯್࣮࣋ࢫࡢෆ㒊཰┈⋡㸦(FRQRPLF

 5$52& 5LVN$GMXVWHG5HWXUQRQ&DSLWDO ᖹᡂ  ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥㔠⼥ᗇබ⾲ࡢࠕಖ㝤఍♫࡟࠾ࡅࡿࣜࢫࢡ࡜ࢯࣝ࣋ࣥࢩ࣮ࡢ⮬ᕫホ౯࡟㛵ࡍࡿሗ࿌᭩㸦256$ ࣏࣮ࣞࢺ㸧ཬࡧ⤫ྜⓗࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮㸦(50㸧ែໃࣄ࢔ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃ (50 ホ౯ࡢ⤖ᯝᴫせ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠖ㸬76ி௉೟ሺଵା୍ୖୖሻ೟ᖹᡂ  ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥㔠⼥ᗇබ⾲ࡢࠕ(50 ࣄ࢔ࣜࣥࢢࡢᐇ᪋࡜ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝᴫせ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚࡛ࠖࡣࠊྛ♫ࡀᴗ⦼ホ౯࡟౑⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋᣦᶆࡢ౛࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ5$52& ࡸ 525& ࢆᣲࡆ࡚࠸ࡿ

Economic IRR とその活用2ࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋࡢ฼┈ࢆ࢚ࢥࣀ࣑ࢵࢡ࣭࢟ࣕࣆࢱࣝ

㏣ཬࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬㸦⤒῭ⓗ࡞ᚲせ㈨ᮏ㸧࡛㝖ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋࡢ฼┈ࡣࠊ఍ィୖࡢ฼┈࠿ࡽ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺࢆ᥍
㝖ࡍࡿ࡞࡝ࡢ᪉ἲࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬5$52& ࡣ௻ᴗ඲యࡲࡓࡣ

 5$52& ࠾ࡼࡧ 525& ࡢඛ⾜◊✲➼ ᮏ⠇࡛ࡣࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡࡛࠶ࡿ 5$52& ࠾ࡼࡧၟရࡸ஦ᴗ㒊㛛ࡈ࡜࡞࡝ಶู࡟ィ⟬ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ

525& ࡟㛵ࡍࡿඛ⾜◊✲➼࡟ࡘ࠸࡚☜ㄆࡍࡿ㸬 ᖺ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

௦ᚋ༙ࠊ%DQNHUV 7UXVW ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㛤Ⓨࡉࢀࡓ 5$52&ࡣࠊ ᖺ௦࡟ධࡾ㖟⾜ᴗ⏺࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୺せ࡞ᣦᶆ࡜ 525& 5HWXUQRQ5LVN&DSLWDO ࡞ ࡾ ࠊ ⌧ ᅾ ࡛ ࡣ %DVHO &RPPLWWHH RQ %DQNLQJᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್ࢆᚲせ㈨ᮏࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್࡛㝖

6XSHUYLVLRQ >@ ࡸ 3LRWU 6WDQLVODZ &KORSHNࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࠊᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್࡜ࡋ࡚᪂ዎ⣙౯>@࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊಙ⏝ࣜࢫࢡࡢホ౯࡟ຍ࠼࡚ࠊ఍♫್ࢆ⏝࠸ࡿ᪉ἲࡶ࠶ࡿ 㸬525& ࡣᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯඲య࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ஦ᴗࣛ࢖ูࣥࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫホ౯್࡟㛵ࡍࡿ཰┈⋡࡜ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵࠊಖ㝤ᮇ㛫

ࡸ 0 $ ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࣜࢫࢡࣜࢱ࣮ࣥホ౯࡞࡝ࡑࡢά⏝㡿ࡀ㛗ᮇ࡟ཬࡪ⏕࿨ಖ㝤ၟရ࡟ࡶ㐺⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍᇦࡀᗈࡲࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡛࠶ࡿ㸬୍᪉ࠊಖ㝤ᴗ⏺࡛ࡣࠊ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

/LVD6:DUGDQG'DYLG+/HH>@࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊ



5$52& ࡣ஦ᴗࣛ࢖ูࣥࡢᐃ㔞ⓗ࡞ࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫホ (9$ (FRQRPLF9DOXH$GGHG ౯࡟᭷⏝࡞ᣦᶆ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࡸ෌ಖ㝤ࠊ0 $⛯ᘬᚋႠᴗ฼┈࠿ࡽ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺࢆ᥍㝖ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃ࡬ࡢά⏝౛ࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ࡛ࡣࠊ㈨ࡉࢀࡿ㸬(9$ ࡀࣉࣛࢫ࡛࠶ࢀࡤᢞ㈨ᐙࡢᮇᚅࢆୖᅇ

ᮏࢥࢫࢺ⋡ࢆୖᅇࡿ 5$52& ࢆಖ㝤ᩱ࡟⧊ࡾ㎸ࡴࡇ࡜ࡿ฼┈ࡀ☜ಖ࡛ࡁ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆព࿡ࡍࡿ㸬࡛ࠊ⤖ᯝⓗ࡟ᰴ୺౯್ࢆ㧗ࡵࡽࢀࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬෌ಖ㝤ࡸ 0 $ ࡛ࡣࠊࣜࢫࢡ๐ῶࡸࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢຠ
 (,& (FRQRPLF,QFRPH&UHDWHG ᯝ ᐃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 5$52& ࡢά⏝ࡀ㏙࡭ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡉ ࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋࡢ฼┈࠿ࡽࠊࣁ࣮ࢻ࣭࣮ࣝࣞࢺ࡟⤒ࡽ࡟ࠊ5LFKDUG*ROGIDUE>@࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ5$52&῭㈨ᮏࢆ஌ࡌࡓ㢠ࢆ᥍㝖ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛⟬ᐃࡉࢀࠊ஦ᴗ

࡟ࡼࡾ༢఩ࣜࢫࢡ࠶ࡓࡾࡢ཰┈⋡ࡀ☜ㄆฟ᮶ࡿࡇ㒊㛛ࡸάື࠿ࡽ⏕ࡌࡿ཰┈㢠ࢆᢕᥱ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬࡜࠿ࡽࠊࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡᡓ␎ࡢ᭷ຠᛶホ౯࡟⏝࠸ࡿ࡞࡝ᦆᐖಖ㝤఍♫࡟࠾ࡅࡿά⏝౛ࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬 ୖグࡢ  ࡘࡢᣦᶆࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ,55 ࡣᢞ㈨⌮ㄽࡲࡓ  ᖺࡢ⡿ᅜ࢔ࢡࢳࣗ࢔࣮ࣜ఍ࡢᖺḟ኱఍࡛ᢅࢃࢀࡿᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡾ㥆ᰁࡳࡸࡍࡃ౑࠸຾ᡭࡢⰋ

࡛ࡣࠊ$OOLDQ] ࡀ 52( ࡟௦ࢃࡿᣦᶆ࡜ࡋ࡚ 525& ࢆྲྀࡉ࠿ࡽࠊࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ࡛ࡶ⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿࡢࡣࡈࡃ⮬↛ࡾୖࡆ࡚࠾ࡾ ࠊࣇ࢛࣮࣮࣡ࢻࣝࢵ࢟ࣥࢢ࡞཰┈⟶࡞ࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡑࡢ୍᪉࡛ࠊࣜࢫࢡࡀ⪃៖ࡉ⌮ᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊ஦ᴗࣛ࢖ูࣥ࡟㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺ

ࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡓࡵࠊᮏᣦᶆ࡛ࡣࣜࢫࢡ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ཰┈ᛶ⋡࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ౛࠼ࡤ 525& ࡀ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺ⋡ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶࡞࠸ 5$52& ࠾ࡼࡧ 525& ࡣࢆୖᅇࡿ஦ᴗࣛ࢖ࣥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ᭦࡞ࡿࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖

ࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡࡜ࡋ࡚ࣜࢫࢡ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ཰┈ᛶࢡࢆ᥎㐍ࡍࡿ࡞࡝ࠊ㈨ᮏࡢ᭷ຠά⏝࡟ࡘ࡞ࡆࡿࡇ࡜ࡢホ౯ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡾࠊಖ㝤ၟရ➼࡟ෆᅾࡍࡿࣜࢫࢡࡀฟ᮶ࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࢆ཯ᫎࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࡸ཰┈⟶⌮➼࡛ࡢࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ5$52& ࡸ 525& ࡣ஦ᴗࣛ࢖ูࣥࡢࣃࣇά⏝ࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬(9$ ࡸ (,& ࡣ཰┈㢠ࡑࡢࡶࡢࢆ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫホ౯ࡸࠊ≉࡟ᰴᘧ఍♫࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㈨ᮏࢥ

ᤊ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵࠊࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡࡜ࡢࢫࢺ⋡࡜ࡢᑐẚ࡜࠸࠺Ⅼ࡛᭷ຠ࡛࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢࠊ೺඲

ే⏝࡟ࡼࡾࠊ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺࢆୖᅇࡿ㝈⏺ⓗᡂ㛗ᶵ఍ࡢᛶ࡜᫂♧ⓗ࡟㛵㐃௜ࡅࡿࡼ࠺࡞◊✲ࡣ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠾
&DSLWDO6WHHULQJIRU6KDUHKROGHU9DOXH62$$QQXDO
0HHWLQJ6HVVLRQ

リスクと保険377

ࡽࡎࠊ༢఩ࣜࢫࢡ࠶ࡓࡾࡢ཰┈⋡࡜ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿ

ࡘࡲࡾࠊ(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡀࣜࢫࢡࣇ࣮࣮ࣜࣞࢺࢆୖᅇࡇࢀࡽࡢᣦᶆࡢ㝈⏺࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ

ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣࠊᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆୖᅇࡿ฼┈ࡀ☜ಖࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜࡜ྠ⩏࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢᑟධ

 5$52& ࡸ 525& ࡛ࡣ೺඲ᛶ࡜᫂♧ⓗ࡟㛵㐃௜ࡅࡿ⾲ ࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺㝈⏺ࡀ࠶ࡾࠊࡇࢀࢆ⿵᏶ࡍ࡭(FRQRPLF,55ࡃ (FRQRPLF,55 ࢆᑟධࡍࡿ㸬(FRQRPLF,55 ࡜ࡣࠊ,55 ࡢᴫᛕࢆᛂ⏝ࡋࠊ⏕࿨ಖ㝤ၟရ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࣜࢫࢡ ଴ ࡜ ଴ (FRQRPLF,55݅ ଴ ൏  ଴࡚ࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 ࡣᑗ᮶࢟ࣕࢵࢩࣗࣇ࣮ࣟࡢ⌧ᅾ౯(FRQRPLF,55 ݅ ଴ ൌ  ଴್࡜ࠊึᮇᢞ㈨࠾ࡼࡧᚲせ㈨ᮏࡢྜィࡀ୍⮴ࡍࡿ๭(FRQRPLF,55!݅

ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥຠ⋡ࡢホ౯ࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋࡓᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬,55 ࡀᑗ᮶ࡢ࢟ࣕࢵࢩࣗࣇ࣮ࣟࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್࡜ึᮇ
ᢞ㈨ࡀ୍⮴ࡍࡿ๭ᘬ⋡࡜ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿࡢ࡟ᑐࡋᘬ⋡࡜ࡋ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬ึᮇᢞ㈨ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊᚲ ଴ ൐  ଴

せ㈨ᮏࡶຍ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ,55 ࡛ࡣᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࣜ୔୚୊୔బ௨ୗࠊᮏ✏࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣࠊࢫࢡ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ཰┈ᛶࡢホ౯ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ி௉೟σሺଵା୍ୖୖሻ೟

ሺଵା୉ୡ୭୬୭୫୧ୡ ୍ୖୖሻ೟σࡢỈ‽୔୚୊୔బୖబ୔୚୊୔బୖబ୔୚୊୔బୖబ൏ ͳൌ ͳ൐ ͳࢆ᫬้  ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ6ROYHQF\5DWLR㸧࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ଴ ࡜グ㍕ࡍࡿ㸬㸻ึᮇᢞ㈨ᚲせ㈨ᮏ

 (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢ⪃ᐹ๓⠇ࢆࡩࡲ࠼ࠊࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࠊ(65 ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃ᛶࠊ 㔜せ࡞ (FRQRPLF ,55 ࡢ≉ᚩ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢุ᩿࠾ࡼࡧ㓄ᙜ㑏ඖవຊࡢホ౯ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್࡜ᚲせ㈨ᮏࡢ኱ᑠࢆ᫂♧ⓗ࡟ẚ㍑ฟ᮶ࡿ

ほⅬ࠿ࡽ 525& ࡜ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢẚ㍑ࢆ⾜࠺㸬Ⅼ࡟࠶ࡿ㸬 ଴ ࢆ᫬้  ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᚲせ㈨ᮏ࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ ଴ ൌ  െึᮇᢞ㈨ σி௉೟ሺଵା୉ୡ୭୬୭୫୧ୡ ୍ୖୖሻ೟ ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ࣭525&ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ࡟┠ᶆ 525& ࢆ⧊ࡾ㎸ࢇ࡛ࡶࠊ᪂ዎࡲࡓ݅ࢆࣜࢫࢡࣇ࣮࣮ࣜࣞࢺ㸦㔠฼ࡢᮇ㛫ᵓ㐀ࢆ⪃៖⣙ࡢ (65 ࡢỈ‽ࡣศ࠿ࡽࡎࠊ(65 ࡀ 㸣ࢆୗᅇࡿࡋ࡞࠸㸧ࠊ᫬้  ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್ࢆྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿ㸬 ଴ ࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ

࣭(FRQRPLF,55 ଴ ൌ െึᮇᢞ㈨ σி௉೟ሺଵା௜ሻ೟

ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ᫬࡟ (FRQRPLF,55 ࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿࡇ࡜

࡛ࠊ᪂ዎ⣙ࡢ (65 ࡢỈ‽ࡶྠ᫬࡟ᢕᥱࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ

ࡇࡢ࡜ࡁࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 ଴ ࠾ࡼࡧ ଴ ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊ᮶ࡿ㸬௨ୗࡢ㛵ಀࡀᡂࡾ❧ࡘ㸬Economic IRR൏ ݅ ՞  ଴ ൏  ଴ ՞
Economic IRRൌ ݅ ՞  ଴ ൌ  ଴ ՞

Economic IRR൐ ݅ ՞  ଴ ൐  ଴ ՞78ୖబ⤒ ῭ ౯ ್ ࣋ ࣮ ࢫ ࡢ ೺ ඲ ᛶ ᣦ ᶆ (65 㸦 (FRQRPLF㸻 ึᮇᢞ㈨    ி௉೟ୖబ୔୚୊୔బ୔୚୊୔బୖబ୔୚୊୔బୖబ୔୚୊୔బୖబ (65 ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃ᛶ൏ ͳ

࣭525&
525& ࡣ (65 ࡜ࡢ┤᥋ⓗ࡞㛵㐃ᛶࡀ࡞࠸ࡓࡵࠊ525&ൌͳ༢⊂࡛ࡣ (65 ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶࡞࠸㸬࣭(FRQRPLF,55൐ͳ఍♫ࡀ┠ᶆ࡜ࡍࡿ (65 ࡟ᑐࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆᐇ⌧ࡍࡿࡓ

Economic IRR とその活用

4ࡵࡢ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆタᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶౛࠼ࡤ୰㛗ᮇⓗ࡞఍♫ࡢ (65 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆᐃࡵࡿ࡜ࡿ㸬ࡁࠊࡑࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆ㐩ᡂࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬௨ୗ࡛ࡣ (65 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࡀ 㸣 ࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢጇᙜᛶࡢุ᩿࡛࠶ࡿಖ㝤఍♫ࡀ⾲  ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ ࡘࡢၟရࡢ㈍኎ࢆ

࣭525&

ணᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿሙྜ࡟ (FRQRPLF,55 ࢆά⏝ࡋࡓࣉࣛ࢖

525& ࢆࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡢุ᩿࡟౑࠺㝿࡟ࡣ༑ศὀࢩࣥࢢࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ㸬(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡜ (65 ࡣ㛵㐃௜ࡅࡿពࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤ 525& ࡀ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺ⋡ࢆୖࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡾࠊ⾲  ࡛ࡣࠊ(65ࠊࡣࡑᅇࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࡑࢀࢀࡒࢀ (FRQRPLF,55ࠊ㸣࡟ᑐᛂࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡜ࡀ┠ᶆ (65 ࢆ㐩ᡂࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸࡞࠸ྍ⬟ᛶࡶࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬࠶ࡿ㸬࣭(FRQRPLF,55⾲  ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ఍♫ࡀ┠ᶆ࡜ࡍࡿ (65 ࡜ᩚྜⓗ࡞(FRQRPLF,55 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆタᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ(FRQRPLFࡇ࡜࠿ࡽࠊ┠ᶆ್ࢆୖᅇࡿࡼ࠺࡞ၟရูࡢ㈍኎ィ⏬

,55ࢆ❧᱌ࡋ㐠Ⴀࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ┠ᶆ (65 ࢆ㐩ᡂࡍࡿࡼ࠺ ଴ ࡜࡞ࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࢸ࢖ࢡࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬

ၟရ $

ၟရ %

ၟရ &

ၟရ '㺭㺐㺣㺛 ଴  ଴  ଴  ଴ 

 ଴ ࡢ኱ᑠ ൐ ଴ ଴ ࡢ 㓄ᙜ㑏ඖవຊࡢホ౯Ỉ‽

࣭525&൐ ଴ ൌ ଴ ൏ ଴ ᮍ‶

525& ࡣ (65 ࡜┤᥋ⓗ࡞㛵ಀࡀ࡞ࡃࠊ525& ࡢỈ‽ၟရ $ ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡣࠊ┠ᶆࢆ㐩ᡂࡍࡿࡢࡳ࡛ࡣ೺඲ᛶࡀ࡝ࡢ⛬ᗘ‶ࡓࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࠿ุ᩿ฟỈ‽࡟࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢၟရࡢࣜࢫࢡᑐᛂຊ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ඘ศ᮶ࡎࠊ㓄ᙜ㑏ඖవຊࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶࡞࠸㸬ࡍࡂࡿ࠿ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸㸬㢳ᐈࡢᮇᚅࡸ࣐࣮ࢣࢵࢺࡢ┦࣭(FRQRPLF,55ሙࡼࡾࡶಖ㝤ᩱࡀ㧗࠸ሙྜ࡟ࡣ➇தຊࢆኻࡗ࡚ࡋࡲ(FRQRPLF,55ࡀ (65 ࡢ┠ᶆ࡜ᩚྜⓗ࡟タᐃࡋࡓ࠺㸬ᮏၟရࡢ㈍኎࡟࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣࠕၟရࡢᕪู໬ࠖࡀ㘽Ỉ‽ࢆୖᅇࡿ㒊ศࡣࠊ㓄ᙜ㑏ඖవຊࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜ホ౯ࡍ࡜࡞ࡾࠊ௚♫࡟࡞࠸ࣘࢽ࣮ࢡ࡞ၟရタィࡀồࡵࡽࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶ࡿ㸬ࡿ㸬
ၟရ % ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡣ┠ᶆࢆୗᅇࡿ୍᪉ ᐇົ࡬ࡢᛂ⏝࡛ࠊၟရࡢࣜࢫࢡᑐᛂຊ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢಖᏲᛶࡣ㐺ᗘ࡟ഛᮏ❶࡛ࡣၟရᡓ␎ࠊ㈍኎ᡓ␎࠾ࡼࡧ㓄ᙜᡓ␎࡬࡚ᩱ⋡ࡢỈ‽ࡣࡼࡾጇᙜ࡞ࡶࡢ࡜࡞ࡿࡔࢁ࠺㸬ࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬௚♫࡜ࡢ➇ྜࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࡜ࠊၟရ $ ࡟ẚ࡭ࡢ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢά⏝౛ࢆ♧ࡍ㸬

ၟရ & ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡣࢮ࡛ࣟ࠶ࡾࠊ఍♫ࡢ཰┈ᛶ࡟ࡶ೺඲ᛶ࡟ࡶ㈉⊩ࡋ࡞࠸㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ ၟရᡓ␎(65 ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃ᛶࡢ࠶ࡿ (FRQRPLF ,55 ࢆၟရᡓ␎࡟

ࢡࣟࢫࢭࣝ࡟ࡼࡾ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡢ㧗࠸ၟရ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡆά⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ཰┈ᛶ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟೺඲ᛶࡶࡩࡲ࠼ࡓၟရ ' ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ (FRQRPLF ,55 ࡣ࣐࢖ࢼࢫ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶ࢀࡤ㈍኎ࡣྍ⬟࠿ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸㸬ၟရタィࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬⮬㌟ࡢ฼┈࡛ᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆ࢝ࣂ࣮࡛ࡁ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬ᮏၟရࡢ㈍኎ࡣ཰┈ᛶࡶ೺඲ᛶࡶపୗࡉࡏࡿࡓࡵࠊ෌タ ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢ࡬ࡢᛂ⏝ᐇົୖࠊቑ㓄ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜࡣಖ㝤✀㢮㛫ࡢ┦஫⿵࡚ࢇ㛵ಀࢆぢࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࡢุ᩿࡜࡞ࡿ㸬

リスクと保険579

ィࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್ ࠊ525& ࡣ

ᚲせ㈨ᮏࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್ ࣉࣛ࢖ࢩࣥࢢࡢ஦ᚋ᳨ド࡬ࡢᛂ⏝(FRQRPLF,55 ࡣσଶହ௧ୀଵ୍⯡࡟⏕࿨ಖ㝤ၟရࡢಖ㝤ᮇ㛫ࡣఱ༑ᖺ࡟ࡶཬࡪࡇ࡜࠿ࡽࠊಖ㝤ᩱタᐃ᫬࡟༑ศ࡞᳨ドࡢࡶ࡜㐺ṇ࡞ྛᮇࡢ฼┈ሺͳ൅‫ܴܴܫ ܿ݅݉݋݊݋ܿܧ‬ሻᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್(65 ࡣᩱ⋡ࢆタᐃࡋࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ㈍኎ᚋ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᙜึࡢ᝿

ᚲせ㈨ᮏ

 
‫ ݐ‬ൌᚲせ㈨ᮏࠊ

ᐃ࡜␗࡞ࡗ࡚ࡃࡿ㸬ᐇ㝿ࠊᡃࡀᅜࡢṚஸ⋡ࡣ་⒪ᢏ⾡࡟ࡼࡾࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀ⟬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜ࠊࡢ㐍Ṍ➼࡟ࡼࡾᨵၿࢆ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ 㸧㸬525& 㸣ࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 㸣ࠊ(65 㸣࡜࡞ࡾⰋዲ࡞Ṛஸᐇ⦼࡟ࡼࡾࠊ཰┈ᛶࠊ೺඲ᛶ࡜ࡶ㧗ேཱྀ  ୓ே࠶ࡓࡾࡢᖺ㱋ㄪᩚᚋṚஸ⋡ ࠸Ỉ‽࡟࠶ࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ➇தຊࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡓࡵ࡟Ṛஸ⋡ᨵၿศࢆಖ㝤ᩱ࡟཯ᫎࡋࠊணᐃṚஸ⋡ࢆᨵᐃ๓ࡢ 㸣ࡢỈ‽࡟ᘬୗࡆࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࠿⪃࠼࡚ࡳࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ࡜ࡁࠊᨵᐃᚋࡢணᐃṚஸ⋡ࡣ ͙㸦 ͙㸧࡜࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊྛᮇࡢ฼┈ࡣ㸦͙㸫͙㸧㸻࡟ῶᑡࡋࠊ
525& 㸣ࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 㸣ࠊ(65 㸣 ࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ಖ㝤ᩱỈ‽ࡀᨵᐃ๓ࡢ 㸣ࡢỈ‽࡟ᘬୗࡆࡓࡇ࡜ᅗ ࡛ࠊ཰┈ᛶࡣపୗࡋࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊ(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡜ (65ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣᐃᮇಖ㝤࠾ࡼࡧᖺ㔠ಖ㝤ࢆ౛࡟࡜ࡾࠊ㈍኎ࡣᘬࡁ⥆ࡁ㧗࠸Ỉ‽ࡀ⥔ᣢࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ☜ㄆฟ᮶ࡿ㸬ᚋࡢ஦ᚋ᳨ド࡬ࡢᛂ⏝ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ㸬 ᖺ㔠ಖ㝤ࡢሙྜ ᐃᮇಖ㝤ࡢሙྜᖺ㔠ᮇ㛫  ᖺ㸦⏕Ꮡࢆ᮲௳࡟ᖺ㔠ᨭᡶ㸧ࠊᖺ㔠ᖺ㢠 ಖ㝤ᮇ㛫  ᖺࠊṚஸಖ㝤㔠㢠  ୓෇ࡢᐃᮇಖ㝤 ୓෇ࡢᖺ㔠ಖ㝤ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ㸬ᮏಖ㝤ࡢணᐃṚஸ⋡ࡀࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ㸬ᮏಖ㝤ࡢணᐃṚஸ⋡ࡀ ͙ࠊᨭᡶᣦᩘ㸦ᐇ͙ࠊᨭᡶᣦᩘࡀ 㸣࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࡁࠊᖺ㔠㛤ጞᚋ࡟࠾⦼Ṛஸ⋡ணᐃṚஸ⋡㸧ࡀ 㸣࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࡁࠊྛᮇࡢ฼ࡅࡿྛᮇࡢ฼┈ࡣ┈ࡣ㹹㸦͙㸧㸫㸦͙㸧㹻㸻㸦͙㸫͙㸧㸻࡜࡞ࡿ㸬࡜࡞ࡿ㸬๭ᘬ⋡ࢆ 㸣ࠊᮏಖ㝤ࡢᖺ㔠㛤ጞ᫬ࡢᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆ๭ᘬ⋡ࢆ 㸣ࠊᮏಖ㝤ࡢዎ⣙᫬ࡢᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆ  ࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ࡜ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ

525& 㸣ࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 㸣ࠊ(65 㸣࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ⤫ィ⾲  ඲Ṛᅉ࣭୕኱Ṛᅉ ᛶูᖺ㱋ㄪᩚṚஸ⋡㸦ேཱྀ  ୓ேᑐ㸧ࡢ᥎⛣ࠖ㸬౛࠼ࡤ⏕ಖᶆ‽⏕࿨⾲ 㸦Ṛஸಖ㝤⏝㸧࡛ࡣࠊ⤒㦂Ṛஸ⋡ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ᖺ㱋࣭ᛶู࡟ᛂࡌࡓࡏࡘ᩿ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⢒Ṛஸ⋡࡟ࠊȪ㸦ಙ㢗Ỉ‽ 㸣┦ᙜ㸧ࡢᏳ඲๭ቑࢆ௜୚ࡋ࡚࠾

80ࡾࠊ୍⯡࡟ᐇ⦼Ṛஸ⋡ࡣணᐃṚஸ⋡ࢆୗᅇࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤ⏕ಖᶆ‽⏕࿨⾲ 㸦ᖺ㔠㛤ጞᚋ⏝㸧࡛ࡣ➨ ᅇ⏕࿨⾲ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ࠊᨵၿ⋡ࢆ཯ᫎࡋࡓ⢒Ṛஸ⋡࡟ 㸣ࢆ஌ࡌ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ୍⯡࡟ᐇ⦼Ṛஸ⋡ࡣணᐃṚஸ⋡ࢆୖᅇࡿ㸬Economic IRR とその活用

6ࡇࡇ࡛ࠊᐇ㝿ࡢṚஸ⋡ᨵၿࡀ᝿ᐃ௨ୖ࡟㐍ࡳࠊᨭᡶ(FRQRPLF,55 ࡣσଶହ௧ୀଵᣦᩘࡀ 㸣࡜࡞ࡗࡓሙྜࠊྛᮇࡢ฼┈ࡣ㹹㸦͙㸧㸫㸦͙㸧㹻㸻ྛᮇࡢ฼┈ሺͳ൅‫ܴܴܫ ܿ݅݉݋݊݋ܿܧ‬ሻᑗ᮶฼┈ࡢ⌧ᅾ౯್(65 ࡣ࡟ῶᑡࡋࠊ

ᚲせ㈨ᮏ ‫ ݐ‬ൌᚲせ㈨ᮏࠊ

525& 㸣ࠊ(FRQRPLF,55 㸣ࠊ(65 㸣࡟ࡼࡾࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀ⟬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜⾲  ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ࡜࡞ࡿ㸬࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢሙྜ࡛ࡶࠊணᐃṚஸ⋡ࡀᐇ⦼Ṛஸ⋡࡟ẚ࡭࡚ప࠸ࡓࡵ⏕Ꮡ┈ࡀ☜ಖࡉࢀࠊ525& ࡣࣉࣛࢫࢆ⥔⾲ ᣢฟ᮶ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆ㈥࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶

ࡎ (FRQRPLF ,55 ࡣ࣐࢖ࢼࢫ࡜࡞ࡾࠊ(65 ࡣ 㸣ࢆ(FRQRPLF

኱ࡁࡃୗᅇࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ (FRQRPLF,55 ࢆ㈍኎ᚋࡢ

,55

஦ᚋ᳨ド࡟⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ཰┈ᛶ࡜೺඲ᛶࡢ୧㠃࠿

(65ࡽጇᙜᛶࡀ☜ㄆฟ᮶ࡿ㸬㈓⵳ᛶၟရ

ಖ㞀ᛶၟရ㸣㸣㸣㸣 ⾲  ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ࠊ㈓⵳ᛶၟရࡢ㈍኎༨⋡ࢆኚ࠼ࡓሙ

 ㈍኎ᡓ␎

ྜࡢ㈓⵳ᛶၟရ࡜ಖ㞀ᛶၟရྜィࡢ (65 ࡜ (FRQRPLF㈍኎ィ⏬ࡢ❧᱌࡟࠶ࡓࡾࠊ཰┈ᛶ㸦ࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࣜࢱ࣮,55 ࢆヨ⟬ࡋࡓ㸬ヨ⟬࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㈓⵳ᛶၟရࡢࣜࢫࢡ

ࣥຠ⋡㸧࡜኎ࡾ᫆ࡉ㸦㢳ᐈࡢዲࡳ㸧ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆ⪃࠼࡜ࠊಖ㞀ᛶၟရࡢࣜࢫࢡࡣ↓┦㛵࡜௬ᐃࡋ⤫ྜᚋࡢࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢࠊࡇࢀࡽࢆ୧❧ࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡣᐜ

ᚲせ㈨ᮏࢆ⟬ᐃࡋࡓ㸬࡛᫆ࡣ࡞࠸8㸬㈍኎ィ⏬࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃၟရ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊᅗ  ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ࡜࡞ࡾ㸦ヲ⣽ࡣู⣬࡟グ㍕㸧
ࠊࡢ⟇ᐃ࡟࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ㈓⵳ᛶၟရ࡜ಖ㞀ᛶၟရࡢ᭱(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡣࡑࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡾ (65 ࡀ᭱኱࡜࡞ࡿ㐺࡞⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࢆᐇ⌧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊၟရ㛫ࡢศᩓຠࡼ࠺࡞ၟရ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࡢ≉ᐃࢆྍ⬟࡟ࡍࡿࡇᯝ࡟ࡼࡾࣜࢫࢡࢆᢚ࠼ࡘࡘࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ᭱኱໬ࢆᅗࡿ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡿ㸬ࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿ㸬௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊ⾲  ࡢ཰┈ᵓ㐀ࢆࡶࡘ㈓⵳ᛶၟရ࠾ࡼࡧಖ㞀ᛶၟရࢆ௬ᐃࡋࠊ㈍኎ᡓ␎࡬

㈓⵳ᛶၟရࡢ㈍኎༨⋡ูࡢ (65 ࡜ (FRQRPLF,55ࡢά⏝ࢆヨࡳࡿ㸬(65㸦㸣㸧(FRQRPLF,55⾲ ㈓⵳ᛶၟရ

ಖ㞀ᛶၟရ

ಖ㝤ᮇ㛫 ᖺ ᖺ525&㸣

㸣

ᚲせ㈨ᮏ



ࡇࡇ࡟ࠊᑗ᮶ྛᮇࡢᚲせ㈨ᮏࡣṚஸࡸゎ⣙࡞࡝ࡢ
⬺㏥࡟ࡼࡾ㈓⵳ᛶၟရ 㸣ࠊಖ㞀ᛶၟရ 㸣࡛㏴ῶ㈓⵳ᛶၟရࡢ㈍኎༨⋡ 㸣 ࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡜ࡋࠊ๭ᘬ⋡ࡣ 㸣࡜ࡋࡓ㸬ᅗ ࡇࡢ࡜ࡁࠊఏ⤫ⓗ࡞㈓⵳ᛶၟရࡣ౫↛࡜ࡋ࡚ேẼࡀ㧗ࡃࠊಖ㝤఍♫࡟࡜ࡗ࡚኎ࡾ᫆࠸ၟရ࡛࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢࠊ཰┈ᛶࡀపࡃࠊ㔠฼ࣜࢫࢡ࡞࡝ࡢᕷሙࣜࢫࢡࢆᢪ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓࠊಖ㞀ᛶၟရࡣ཰┈ᛶࡢ㧗࠸ၟရ࡛࠶ࡾಖ㝤఍♫࡟࡜ࡗ࡚Ḟ࠿ࡍࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ၟရ࡛࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢࠊ㈍኎࡟࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣ୎ᑀ
࡞ࢥࣥࢧࣝࢸ࢕ࣥࢢࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

リスクと保険781 㓄ᙜᡓ␎ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊ┦஫఍♫ࡢዎ⣙⪅㓄ᙜ᱌⟇ᐃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ

$ ♫

% ♫

(FRQRPLF㸣㸣

(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡢά⏝ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ㸬㓄ᙜ᱌ࡢ⟇ᐃ࡟࠾࠸,55࡚ࡣ୰㛗ᮇⓗ࡞どⅬ࠿ࡽ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏᙉ໬࡜ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫ

(65㸣㸣ࢆ࡜ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡣࡑࡢࣂࣛ525&㸣㸣ࣥࢫࢆホ౯ࡍࡿ࠺࠼࡛᭷ຠ࡞ᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ዎ⣙⪅ࡢᮇᚅࢆࡩࡲ࠼ࡓ㓄ᙜ᪉㔪ࡢࡶ࡜ࠊᑗ᮶ࡢ㓄ᙜྍ⬟㈈

 % ♫ࡢࡼ࠺࡟ (65 ࡢ┠ᶆ್࡜ᩚྜⓗ࡞ (FRQRPLF※ࡢ☜ㄆ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊ౛࠼ࡤ (FRQRPLF,55 ࡀ఍♫ࡢ┠,55 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆタᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾࠊዎ⣙⩌ᅋࡈ࡜ᶆ್ࢆୖᅇࡿዎ⣙⩌࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ᭦࡞ࡿቑ㓄ࡀྍ⬟ࡢ㓄ᙜ㑏ඖవຊࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡜࡞ࡾࠊ㓄ᙜ᱌⟇ᐃ࡟ᙺ❧࡜ุ᩿ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶ࡿ㸬௨ୗ࡛ࡣ๓⠇࡛⏝࠸ࡓಖ࡚ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀฟ᮶ࡿ㸬㞀ᛶၟရࡢࣔࢹࣝዎ⣙ࢆ⏝࠸࡚㓄ᙜᡓ␎࡬ࡢά⏝ࢆヨࡳࡿ㸬 ࠾ࢃࡾ࡟ ⾲  ࠾ࡼࡧ⾲  ࡼࡾࠊಖ㞀ᛶၟရࡢ 525& ࡣᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊ525& ࡟௦⾲ࡉࢀࡿࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚᚋ཰┈⋡㸣ࠊ(65 ࡣ 㸣࡛࠶ࡾࠊ཰┈ᛶ࣭೺඲ᛶࡀ༑࡛ࡣ (65 ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᝟ሗࡀ᫂♧ⓗ࡟ᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠸㝈⏺ࢆศ㧗࠸ၟရ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ゝ࠼ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡓࡵᮏၟရࡀ᭷㓄⿵᏶ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚ (FRQRPLF ,55 ࢆᑟධࡋࠊᙜಖ㝤࡛࠶ࡿሙྜ࡟ࡣࠊ๫వࡢ୍㒊ࢆ㓄ᙜ࡜ࡋ࡚㑏ࡑࡢ⪃ᐹࡢ⤖ᯝࠊ(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡣ (65 ࡜㛵㐃௜ࡅࡿඖࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ⾲  ࡢࣜࢫࢡ࢔ࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡞ᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ➨  ❶࣌ࢱ࢖ࢺࢫࢸ࣮ࢺ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ᭷ࡍࡿ⏕࿨ಖ㝤┦஫఍♫࡛ࡣၟရᡓ␎ࠊ㈍኎ᡓ␎࠾ࡼࡧ㓄ᙜᡓ␎࡬ࡢ ♫㸦$ ♫ࠊ% ♫㸧࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⪃࠼ࡿ㸬

(FRQRPLF ,55 ࡢά⏝౛ࢆ♧ࡋ᭷ຠᛶࡢホ౯ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࡀࠊ฼ᅇࡾࡸṚஸ⋡ࡀ୍ᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ๓ᥦ࡜ࡋ࡚⾲ $ ♫࠸ࡿࡓࡵࠊ㔠฼ࡢᮇ㛫ᵓ㐀ࢆࡶࡗࡓ⌧ᐇࡢ࢖࣮ࣝࢻ% ♫࣮࢝ࣈࡸࠊᖺ㱋ࡸᛶูࠊᰝᐃ᪉ἲ➼ᵝࠎ࡞せᅉ࡟౫Ꮡ࣭(65 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࡣ࣭(65 ࡢ┠ᶆ್ࡣࡍࡿṚஸ⋡ࢆ᝿ᐃࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸࡞࠸Ⅼ࡟ὀព㸣㸣ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬࡞࠾ࠊᮏ✏࡛ࡣᑓࡽ┦஫఍♫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ

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リスクと保険983

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Economic IRR とその活用

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Economic IRR とその活用

12Economic IRR and Its Application Kenichi Kimura

Naoki Sunamoto

Abstract
Integrated management of capital, risk and return is essential for the contemporary Enterprise Risk
Management (ERM). The relationships between three elements are measured by three metrics:
Economic Solvency Ratio (ESR), Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Risk Capital (RORC). The
risk-adjusted return metrics represented by RORC have an important role in decision making
because they are inextricably linked to strategic planning and its analysis. RORC is popularly usedin practice, but has limitations in that RORC itself gives little information about ESR.
In this paper, we introduce a risk-adjusted return metric called “Economic Internal Rate of Return”(Economic IRR) as a complement to RORC. Economic IRR is a form of internal rate of return that
includes initial required capital as part of initial investment. After explaining the development of themodels for Economic IRR, we explore the pros and cons of Economic IRR from the perspective ofeffectiveness of practice. We find that Economic IRR excels in effectiveness and efficiency and is very
useful in decision making. After showing an example of practical use, we conclude that Economic IRR,
when it is effectively incorporated into the decision making process, will enhance the integrated
management of capital, risk and return, and consequently will strengthen the ability of risk-taking.

Key Words㸸 Economic IRR㸪ESR㸪RORC㸪Required Capital

リスクと保険1387