Barriers to a Low-Carbon
SocietyMike Norton
Shinshu University

Current Direction/trends• CO2 emissions accelerating• Previous international control regime (Kyoto)
ineffective• Fossil Fuel companies (and Gov’ts) yet toengage (Exxon obviously but even BP
retrenched back to fossil fuel)• Deforestation drivers strengthening with biofuel
adding to population, soya, beef and timberpressures• Science looking more ominous• Means low-carbon society more urgent but moredistant!

Rahmsdorf et al.

Polar IceArctic• Nature News (13.1.08)• Antarctic ice lossspeeding up

Towards a Low Carbon Society• Barriers severe to impossible at all levels:– Individual– National– International• Do we have time to overcome them??

Individual Barriers• Global Warming skeptics/ disinformation– Highly Effective in UK and US– June 2007 Mori poll conducted in the UK found 56% believedscientists were still questioning climate change•

Human activity is a significant cause of global warming?

• BBC Poll (Nov 2007)•USChinaUKAgree

71

87

78

Disagree

24

1117

More people in China think that human activity is responsible than in theUK or the US.

Green Barometer- Quarterly survey• Attitudes to helping the environment
Apr 2007
3.56

July 2007 Nov 2007
3.42
3.28

• Actions to help the environment
Apr 2007
2.00

July 2007 Nov 2007
0.92
1.96

Significant variability – concern ephemeral?
Bad news tolerance or discounting

Also from Green Barometer• Willingness to change/make sacrifices- Trivial OK; substantive NO!

- 92% not prepared to stop using a patio heater- Carbon Credit card no/ probably no 70%; yes;5%

SDC Sustainable Consumption
Round Table Actions
Practical initiatives as catalysts for behaviour change; e.g.:• airlines to introduce carbon offsets on an ‘opt-out’ basis;• make on-site energy generation a common sight in new homes
and public buildings;• roll out smart meters, to help people get to grips with energy use;
• enabling schools to serve balanced, seasonal, quality food;• giving serious incentives to low-carbon cars
• Collaborate with business to plot sustainability ‘product roadmaps’; e.g.
• low-carbon cars;• low-energy home entertainment;• the next generation of energy-efficient lighting.
• Reward households for careful use of energy and water via taxes andtariffs, and penalise excessive consumption.
• Empower and resource local authorities to help people play their part insustainable communities. Councils should give street-level feedback on
recycling and other achievements, reward those who pledge to adopt
sustainable behaviours, and support community-level action.

SDC: Individual responsibility –how far?
• Government and business must focus fairly andsquarely on mainstream consumers, rather thanexpecting the heroic minority of green shoppers
to shop society’s way out of unsustainability.
• Incentives (grants, reduced taxes) more effective
than penalties• But even if recommended measures spread,anticipated reductions in range of 10-30% hardly enough to offset IEA growth forecasts!

However- Consumer confusion• Home wind turbines dealt a blow (Guardian)“The energy from some micro power equipment would not operate alightbulb, says official study. Home wind turbines are significantly
underperforming and in the worst cases generating less than theelectricity needed to power a single lightbulb, according to thebiggest study of its kind carried out in Britain.”• Have you got Green Fatigue? (Independent)“You recycle and buy local- but the Earth is still warming up. If you’restarting to feel apathy creeping in you're not alone.”• Walking to the shops ‘damages planet morethan going by car’ (Times)“Walking does more than driving to cause global warming, a leading
environmentalist has calculated”

Conclusion• Can’t rely on individual choice for more thantrivial contributions to sustainable consumption• Individual choice has to be steered andrewarded and penalised consistently because it
takes time for new norms and habits to form andtake root
• Incentives better than penalties because thelatter breed resistance and may lead to politicalcosts and loss of societal consensus• So what incentives are there??

National – Talk and Action• UK targets 20% reduction by 2010; 60%
by 2050• Meanwhile

A Valid Question (Guardian)• The improvements to the climate changebill that Hilary Benn, the environment
secretary, announced yesterday werewelcome. But in every major energy sector- aviation, transport, power generation,
house building, coal mining, oil exploration- the government is promoting policies thatwill increase emissions. How will it makethe 60% cut that the bill enforces?

Japan- same problem• Despite industry global leader in low and
new energy; carbon intensity not changed
since late 80s• Despite Innovation 25 seeing sustainability
as 6th Innovation wave where Japan is wellplaced to benefit by leading• Keidanren still sees emissions reduction
as threat not opportunity

Conclusion• Even where Government has a strong policy andmany scientists telling it what to do, harddecisions are very difficult and there is yet noevidence that carbon reduction will have priority
over other policies.
• Even Governments well placed to get ‘double
dividend’ acts defensively and do not lead (seehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f30535c-bf1e-11dc8c61-0000779fd2ac.html )Is the answer the Carbon Price?
• DEFRA ‘objective’ calculations(Actual prices under the ETS have varied from 1-18/teCO2)
http://www.defra.gov.uk/Environment/climatechange/research/carboncost/index.htm

International Barriers• Climate Change denial activities• Self-interest (Global warming winners)• Oil/coal/gas Industry dominated countries• Developing/ Developed country
responsibility allocation• Free-riders, trade and competition

1. Global emissions of GHG
Agriculture
5.6 Gt 14%
mostly fromsoils &livestock
Land Usechanges
7.6 Gt 18%
primarily
deforestation

Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.

Electricity &Heat
Generation
Transport
Otherenergy

Industry

All GHG in CO2 equivalent

Energy –25.6 Gt 61%
Consuming
fossil fuels

Brazil, Indonesia Etc.
• Deforestation emissions dominate• This is related to demands for food and biocrops andcannot be disentangled from wider trade and energy
policies including those of the World Bank
• There is a conflict between market forces responding toconsumer, market and government pressures andprotection of remaining forests• Responsibility not just forest clearers but the chain ofproduction that buys from them as well. The big soya
companies, the meat storage plants that have set up
there (with WB support)• Trends of increasing world population, increasing percapita meat consumption (especially beef) are increasing
the pressures for deforestation• Biofuels are adding an additional pressure

Biofuel Carbon

Innovation and Energy• For every energy saving there is an
opportunity to use more!
Energy saving kettle, fridge etc

Heat your toilet seat!
Switch to Plasma

Digital TV Set top Box

And…Growth Drivers• Global Population• Cars• efficiency potential - + 30-50%• Market expansion (2020) – x 4-5 (more??)• Aircraft• efficiency potential - + 20% by 2020
• Market expansion potential – x 2 by 2017• CSD: “overwhelming consensus is that RP
will not, on its own, deliver the desiredreconciliation between economic growthand living to live within the Earth’sbiophysical constraints and carrying
capacities”

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/waste/research/download/mfaressum.pdf

Innovation and Global Warming
Photovoltaics

CO2 Injection

Concentrated
Solar

Wave

Current/tideBiomass
WindIEA Energy Perspectives• Tools– Strong energy efficiency gains in the transport, industry andbuildings sectors.
– Electricity supply becoming significantly decarbonised as thepower-generation mix shifts towards nuclear power, renewables,
natural gas and coal with CO2 capture and storage (CCS).

• Policies– Energy Efficiency priority– Well-focused R&D– R&D to Technology deployment critical– New stable policy environment to incentivise low-C energy– Non-economic barriers– Developed and developing Country collaboration

China and Coal
• Led by managing partner China Huaneng
Group, the GreenGen Company will
design, develop and operate an integrated
gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power
plant near Tianjin, southeast of Beijing. A250MW plant will bebuilt initially,
expandingto 650MW
in later phases.

Above all, CCSFuturegen

The Inconvenient truth• Our whole economic system is driving towards increased
C emissions and reducing C emissions is like pushingwater uphill.
• Must engage the system so it can work for rather thanagainst LC and change the slope to downhill by:– Carbon price – universal and unavoidable– Reduce growth drivers (inc population)– Tackle mindset to include a limiting environment– Make sustainability and carbon reduction (or emissionsavoidance) central aims of World Bank etc and in trade (WTO)– Apply PPP to Energy Companies• Manhattan project- style urgency to CCS and newenergy• Deforestation policies

Possible 5 Key Messages
1. Engage the whole of industry by incentives –especially the PPP on FF companies andsupport for env industry
2. Reward green consumption – rebalance theeconomic playing field by carbon being
included into the price of goods
3. Urgent coal decarbonisation programme
funded by levy on coal
4. Governments implement cross-departmental
carbon pricing into policy formulation
5. Restrict International development agencies tolow-carbon development.