Nuke Info Tokyo, Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, No. 197, July/August 2020

Post-Corona Japan, the Quake-Nuke-Maglev Combined Disaster and theKashiwazaki-Kariwa NPS
By Ishibashi Katsuhiko (Emeritus Professor at Kobe University, Seismologist)
There is no telling what will happen with COVID-19, the novel coronavirus pandemic,
that should be regarded as a major disaster, but after it dies down somehow (“postcorona”), Japanese society will likely have to undergo sweeping changes. Under thedoctrine of putting economic growth above all else, values such as centralization, scaling
up, efficiency and speed have been emphasized, but post-corona, decentralization,scaling down, leeway and similar values will need to become fundamental to society.
From this perspective, nuclear power stations and the super-fast magnetic levitation(maglev) train, which symbolized the former era, ought to be making their way to theexit. Heretofore, criticism of nuclear power did not necessarily go hand-in-hand withthat of the maglev train, but there appears to be a deep connection between theKashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (KKNPS) operated by the Tokyo ElectricPower Co. (TEPCO) in Niigata Prefecture and Japan’s maglev train.
Post-corona JapanOne of the lessons we have learned from the corona calamity is that we must bear inmind that not only new diseases coming to light, but also unforeseeable events such as
global scale natural disasters, overseas large-scale nuclear accidents, acts of terrorism
and wars can massively disrupt the global production and distribution of goods. In
addition, in Japan, we must not forget to prepare for major earthquakes, particularly theanticipated great Nankai trough quake and earthquakes centered directly under Tokyo.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called the corona calamity “a once in a century nationalcrisis,” but other national crises may be bearing down on us now too.
In order to transform Japan into a society resilient against earthquakes, I appealed forrestoring primary industries and promoting decentralized land use patterns, freeing
ourselves from a blind belief in eternal economic growth and rectifying our priorities
away from extreme free trade, reassessing the excessive policy of tourism-oriented
country, and so on, in an article on earthquake disasters I published in a magazine justprior to the spread of COVID-19. This would also apply to post-corona theory.
In other words, in the future, Japan should make a radical break from the hyperconcentration in Tokyo and other major metropolitan areas that has depopulated its

12rural areas, and cultivate autonomous local societies with economic circulation withineach region based on energy self-sufficiency and local production of food for local
consumption. The most proper way to reviving and invigorating Japan’s rural areas
would not be through measures such as “regional revitalization” involving riskybusinesses promoted by the Abe administration, but by restoring primary industries
that are essential to survival. That would also provide the basis for Japan’s food security.
To accomplish that, Japan would need to put a lid on the dogma of international divisionof labor and complete free trade, which has caused Japan’s primary industries to decline,
resulting in depopulation of the countryside (and overpopulation of the cities). This is
not against international cooperation, nor censured as “protectionism.” With global
warming in mind, we ought to be persuading the world to create a new system of tradein moderation. I think we are facing a post-corona age of “civilizational overhaul.”
The Earthquake-Nuclear-Maglev Combined Disaster
Central Japan Railway Co.’s maglev train, which is under construction and expected tocommence service in 2027, connecting Shinagawa Station in Tokyo with Nagoya at themaximum speed of 500 km/h, is being extolled as eventually creating a hypermegalopolis area of 60 million people stretching from Tokyo to Osaka. However, thisidea promotes even more overcrowding in the cities and runs counter to a decentralized
national land. So, it would be an anachronism in the post-corona era. Changes inpeople’s behavior patterns, such as the popularization of on-line meetings, may makethe utilization of the maglev train lower than anticipated.
The major media organs do not convey any truth at all about the maglev train so as not
to offend their major advertising customer, Central Japan Railway Company. But fromthe start, there have been many doubts about various aspects of the maglev train such asits necessity, economic and technical feasibility, profitability, safety and ecologicalimpact. I have criticized it myself, particularly regarding its safety in the case ofearthquakes.
I will not touch on the specifics, but the maglev route will pass through the mostseismically hazardous zone on the planet. The public has been sold on the idea of themaglev train being a necessary alternative to the Tokaido Shinkansen in the event of thelatter being hit by the anticipated great Nankai trough earthquake, but there is a strong
chance that the maglev itself would suffer severe damage too. In a worst-case scenario,
the track might break and the train be buried under debris in a major catastrophe with13

no hope of restoring it. The line would be rendered a ruin, nothing more than amemorial to the disaster.
Even though Central Japan Railway announced that it would promote the maglev train
at its own expense, public funds (3 trillion yen in low-interest public loans) has been
invested, in a non-transparent manner in what could be the third major scandal to rockthe Abe administration after two involving favoritism for schools. Together with Central
Japan Railway’s deficits, the maglev could wind up being an enormous negative legacy
for future generations. It is the same as nuclear energy, the “dream of the future,” thatwas promoted by inertia without any self-inspection and resulted in the Fukushima
accident.
It is said that the maglev train will require three to five times as much electric power as
the current Shinkansen trains, and it seems to have been planned from the startpresupposing nuclear energy, as explained below. If the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station,in Shizuoka Prefecture operated by the Chubu Electric Power Co. on the coast between
Tokyo and Nagoya, were to be restarted to provide energy for the maglev train and thegreat Nankai trough earthquake occurred when they were both in use, there are fears
that in the worst case, a severe accident could occur at the Hamaoka station withradioactive releases and the maglev could be buried under rubble with the loss of many
lives. This could be called an “earthquake-nuclear-maglev combined disaster,” anexpansion of genpatsu shinsai (earthquake-nuclear combined disaster) which I had
hypothesized and which was realized at Fukushima in 2011.
The Maglev Train and KKNPS
The situation of the KKNPS at the time of 1986 was that its Unit 1 reactor had begun
operating in September 1985, with construction of Units 2 and 5 having begun inOctober 1983, the Electric Power Development Coordination Council having decided on
Units 3 and 4 in March 1985, and the first public hearings on Units 6 and 7 being
planned for November 1987. Meanwhile, according to a news report in February 1986,TEPCO was planning to build new power transmission lines from the KKNPS and a newtransformer substation in Yamanashi Prefecture west of Tokyo to meet rapidly growing
demand for electricity there. TEPCO requested cooperation from the prefecture, andYamanashi’s governor declared that he wished to cooperate in every way in providing
attractive conditions for inviting an experimental maglev line.

14Construction of the experimental maglev line in Yamanashi was decided upon in August
1989, with work completed in March 1997 and experimental runs starting that April.
This experimental line, about 43 km in length, has been incorporated into the finalmaglev line of about 285 km. Meanwhile, electric transmission commenced on the South
Niigata Main Line connecting the KKNPS with the West Gunma Switching Station (inNakanojo Town, Gunma Prefecture) in October 1993, and on the West Gunma Main Lineconnecting that switching station to the East Yamanashi Transformer Substation (inOtsuki City, Yamanashi Prefecture) in May 1992, with both designed for 1 million volt
capacity. Transmission of 154,000 volts to the Tsuru Transformer Substation (in TsuruCity, Yamanashi Prefecture) for the experimental maglev line that Central Japan Railwaywas building commenced in October 1995. Note that the West Gunma Switching Station
was also receiving electric power from the Fukushima Daiichi and Daini Nuclear PowerStations.
The East Yamanashi Transformer Substation is part of a 500,000 volt transmission
network linked with hydroelectric and thermal power stations, and even with thereactors at the KKNPS idled, experimental runs of the maglev train have continued. So, it
is not the case that the maglev cannot run without nuclear power. However, according
to an article in the August 2018 issue of Zaikai-Niigata, Secretary-General NikaiToshihiro of the Liberal Democratic Party has a burning desire to see the maglev train
begin operating as soon as possible (with service starting to both Nagoya and Osaka at
the same time, if possible), and the government and Central Japan Railway are both said
to be eager to restart the KKNPS reactors, as they will be essential for operating themaglev line.
The final push to have the KKNPS, with the many dangers it poses, decommissioned anderadicate the risk of an earthquake-nuclear-maglev combined disaster is one of the mostimportant issues of post-corona Japan.

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