IIPS
Public Lectures
22 April 2003
Capitol Tokyu Hotel, Tokyo

Recent Developments in the Russia-Japan Relationship
Speaker: His Excellency Alexander Nikolaevich Panov
Report by Keiichi Nishimoto (senior research fellow, IIPS)

On 22 April the Institute for International Policy
Studies, with the assistance of the JapanFoundation, hosted a speech on the topic of recent
Russo-Japanese relations delivered by Alexander
Nikolaevich Panov, Ambassador Extraordinary andPlenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Japan.
Ambassador Panov opened his presentation byremarking that great strides had been made in
Russo-Japanese relations in the seven years since
he had assumed his post as Russian ambassador inTokyo, and that the two nations were continuing todevelop friendly ties. However, in order for the two nations’ enhanced relationship to yield afuture political solution to the existing territorial dispute, economic relations too need to beimproved.

Russia and Japan—now enjoying friendly relations
Seven years ago, when the ambassador first
assumed his post in Tokyo, Russia and Japan wereshowing little interest in each other and stereotyped
images abounded on both sides. However, asawareness has grown within Japanese government
and political circles that (just like Japan) Russia isa democracy, a market economy and a member of
the G8, the two countries have come to share abasic understanding. Evidence of this can be foundin Prime Minister Koizumi’s comments on thecommonalities between the two nations, which hemade during his January summit meeting with President Putin. This understanding is
extremely important—if it can serve as a foundation for the construction of new ties, it might
eventually yield a solution to the territorial issue. From the perspective of defense, Russia andJapan pose no threat to one another, and the two countries’ top brass participate actively inmutual exchanges. Except for the territorial dispute, there is no source of hostility or conflict
between the two nations. Moreover, on many international issues Russia and Japan are inclose accord. In addition, the two countries are also growing closer in the cultural sphere,with Japanese food, cinema and kabuki currently enjoying great popularity in Russia.

©Institute for International Policy Studies 2003

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IIPS
Public Lectures
22 April 2003
Capitol Tokyu Hotel, Tokyo

The pressing issue of economic ties
Ambassador Panov expressed regret that, despite
the improved bilateral relations that have arisen
from this growth in mutual understanding, nocomparable progress has been made in theeconomic sphere. Neither trade nor investment
have grown, and the ambassador frankly admitted
that he was at a loss to explain why this was so.
While it has been suggested in some quarters thatthe territorial dispute is the root of the problem,
this seems an improbable explanation, since during
the Soviet era (when the dispute’s very existence
was denied) there was active trade between Japan and the USSR. Admittedly, Russia’sbusiness environment may not represent an enticing prospect for all foreign investors;
however, in sharp contrast to Japan, fellow G8 nations Germany, France, the UK and Italy all
enjoy vigorous business relations with Russia. Ambassador Panov expressed disappointment
with the emphasis in Japan on business ventures in Russia that have proved unsuccessful.
Every year Russia’s Far East has hosted numerous Japanese business missions, in the hope of
attracting new business. Disappointingly, however, none of these efforts has ever borne fruit.
Without the enhancement of economic ties, no meaningful lobby can be nurtured in either
country—a state of affairs that clearly rules out the formulation of any peace treaty between
Japan and Russia. It must be hoped that the pipeline construction project can improve thissituation in some small way, and all efforts are now being made to ensure that this will be thecase.

The territorial dispute—a possible political solution
While the territorial dispute represents a verythorny problem (certainly, one that cannot beresolved at a single stroke), with sufficient politicalresolve it should be possible to devise a solution.
This will, however, require both a certain change inmood (for example, Russian public opinion mustbe brought around to a recognition of the necessity
for a peace agreement) and a new relationshipframed in terms of a non-military quasi-alliance.
Both countries will have to engage in acts ofcompromise—as exemplified by President Putin
when, for the first time, he formally recognized the 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration.
Ambassador Panov concluded his presentation by echoing the sentiments expressed byboth the Russian and Japanese leaders at their January summit: that while there is no easyanswer to the problem of the territorial dispute, it is imperative that a solution that is based on
the relations between the two countries be found.

©Institute for International Policy Studies 20032