COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario AnalysisDecember 3, 2005 Montreal

Development of China Carbon
Emission Scenarios
toward 2050

Hu Xiulian(huxl@eri.org.cn)
Energy Research Institute (ERI)Background
China is a developing country with high population and relatively low
economy development level as a whole.
Along with the rapid increase of economy, the energy demand grows
very fast as well.
The urbanization process has speed up, but the labor quality is still
low and the employment pressure is very highThe energy resource of China is dominated by coal, while oil shows aincrease dependence on import and the exploitation and utilization ofrenewable and clean energy are still difficult.
The technologies of energy transformation and utilization are stillbackward. The energy efficiency is low and the energy-saving potential
is large.
The ecological environment is vulnerable and it is still a big challenge
to solve energy-related environment problems and reduce the greenhousegas emission

Development strategies and energy-saving goals for China
In the next decades, China will
Change the mode of economy development, insist on a economical,
clean and secure development and achieve the sustainable development.
Speed up the process of economy structure adjustment and urbanizationand promote the coordinate development of urban and rural area.
Achieve a multiple supply of energy and vigorously develop and utilize
the new and renewable energy
Promote the technology innovation, increase the energy utilization
efficiency and increase the labor quality and self-innovation ability.
Change the consumption style, develop the circular economy, andconstruct a saving society.
Enhance the international cooperation, learn the international
experiences and establish and improve the policy scheme
Improve the environment and control the greenhouse gas emission

Development strategies and energy-saving goals for China

2000-2020: The Chinese government formulate the society andeconomy development goal for “eleventh-five-year-plan” period, i.e., theannual increase rate of GDP will maintain 8% from 2005 to 2020; theper capita GDP will double from 2000 to 2010; the per GDP energy
consumption will decrease by 20% from 2005 to 20102020-2050: The annual GDP increase rate will be around 5%. Theenergy saving will be strengthened with an annual energy-saving rate of3%. The clean energy technologies will be utilized broadly, the energy
security will be ensured and the sustainable development will beachieved

Economic Growth and Population in 2050
GDP and population growthIndex(2000=125
20.9

20
15

14.9

10

9.14

501
2000

2.36
1.05
2010

5.1
1.09

1.14

2020

2030

GDPPopulation

1.19
2040

1.22
2050

China: Energy demand and CO2 emission scenarios
Options
Enhanced Energy Saving

Renewable energy

CarbonCapture
Sequestration
Clean coal technology
HydrogenTransportPoliciesSector/options
Energy Intensive Products

Baseline scenario
Policy and technology scenario
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 2.7%
3.6%
Building
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 1.9%
3.0%
Transport
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 1.5%
2.8%
Biomass
Annual average reduction rate Annual average reduction rate ofof cost by 3.7%
cost by 5.9%
Hydro
65% of technical potential by 80% of technical potential by
2050
2050
Solar/wind
0.7yuan/kWh by 2050
0.5Yuan/kWh by 2050
4% by 2050
15% by 2050
and Coal fired power plants
Industry
1% by 2050
5% by 2050
Power generation
7% by 2050
35% by 2050
Industry
5% by 2050
15% by 2050
Power generation
Distributed power generation Distributed power generation
system by 3% in 2050
system by 8% in 2050
Transport
Fuel cell vehicle 5%
Fuel cell vehicle 15%Vehicle
Hybrid vehicle diffusion start Hybrid vehicle diffusion start fromfrom 2010, 10% by 2030
2010, 70% by 2040
Carbon tax
No50yuan/t-C in 2010, 200yuan/t-C
in 2050
Subsidy
No
Power from renewable energy
0.4yuan/kWh
Investment
Energy Annual average growth rate 4% Annual average growth rate 6.2%
technology R&D

S ocio-Eco no mic S cen arios
GD P

AIM-Emission
Model

Po p u latio n

Res o u rce Bas e

Lifes ty le

AIM /Em issi on- Rinka ge

B o tto m-up M o d elEndo U se
Ener gy
Efficiency

SocialEner gy
Efficiency

GDPRes o u rce
Bas e

Feedback

Pop ulation

Ener gy
ServiceD emandSocialEner gy
Efficiency
ChangeT echnology
ChangeFood
Consumption
Pattern

Exp loitation
T echnology

Industrial
P rocess
ChangeIndustrialProduction

GDPOth er
In p u ts

P op ulation

Ener gy
Resource
G oods &Service
D emandEner gy Price

Final Ener gy
D emandFinal Ener gy
Sup p ly

Primary
Ener gy
Sup p ly
Ener gy
Conversion
T echnology
Efficiency

End U seT echnology
Efficiency

Biomass
Ener gyD emandG oods &Service
Sup p ly

G oods andService Pric e

Land Inp ut
Crop land

Ener gy
Conversion
T echnology

End U seT echnology

E nerg y-E co no mic M o d el

PastureForestBiomass F arm
O ther Land

La nd E q uilib rium M o d el
G H G s Emissions

AIM / Clim a te M ode l

AIM / Im pa ct M ode lPrimary energy demand in China, 2050
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Oil

Gas

NuclearRenewables

6405
4697

1391

2000

BAU 2050

Tech and Policy
2050

Final energy demand in China,2050
Coal(Mtce)(Mtce)

Coal

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Oil

Gas

Electricity

5087
3825

1078

2000

BAU 2050

Tech and Policy
2050

Final energy use by sector
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0Transport

Industry

5087
3825
1078

2000

BAU 2050

Tech and Policy
2050

Energy Use in Power Generation in China,2050
Coal(Mtce)(Mtce)

BuildingGas

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Other renewables

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
02000

BAU 2050

Tech and Policy
2050

Energy demand will be
reduced by 27% (1708Mtce)
in 2050 in technology andpolicy scenario comparedwith baseline scenario inChina.

(tce/10000 yuan RMB

GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2000

2010

2020

Energy intensity/GDP(BAU)

2030

2040

2050

Energy intensity/GDP (TAP)

CO2 Emission in China,2050(Mt-C)

CO2 emission(BAU)

CO2 emission(TAP)

3500
3000
2500
2000
15001000
50002000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO2 emission will be reduced
by 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 in
39% technology and policy scenario
compared with baseline
scenario in China

CO2 emission reduction contribution (Mt-C)
4000
3500
3000

Energy saving
CCS
Wind/Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Conclusion
Energy Saving by technology progress and social
efficiency improvement is key for future GHG emission
reduction
Technologies including modern renewable energy,
advanced nuclear, clean coal+CCS should be emphasizedfor early R&D
Fiscal energy policies including energy tax/carbon tax
could be a good option