IJERD – International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development (2016) 7-1

Research article
erd

Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability in Rural Areas: Cases
of Apple Farming in 4 Municipals in Gyeonggi Province,
Korea
SEONG YOON CHOI*
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
Email: k147629@int.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp

EIJI YAMAJI
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
Received 21 December 2015

Accepted 12 May 2016(*Corresponding Author)

Abstract Climate change poses a major threat to the environment, economic and social
components in agricultural sector in rural communities. If rural agricultural communities are to
respond adequately to future climate change, they will require to develop adaptation measure
and to do so, it is required to assess vulnerability in their communities. One of the most notableclimate change impact in Korean agricultural communities is that fruit cultivation sites are
moving northward. In the past, apple cultivation was not preferred in the Gyeonggi province.
However, with changing climate, farmers in Icheon and Gapyeong in Gyeonggi province
started to cultivate apple. In addition, governmental support through apple cultivation
promoting projects increased apple cultivation in the province in recent years. This paper aims
to assess climate change vulnerabilities of 4 apple cultivation communities in Gyeonggi
province by developing vulnerability indices as function of climate exposure, sensitivity andadaptive capacity. Using z-score normalization, the quantitative analysis was conducted in thisstudy. The main results of vulnerability assessments are founded as follow: Icheon and
Gapyeong showed higher vulnerability by higher level of exposure and sensitivity to changing
climate than Paju and Yeoncheon. However, adaptive capacity showed that Paju andYeoncheon as more vulnerable than the Icheon and Gapyeong. Therefore, the study concludes
that albeit the same crops cultivated in one province, for effective local-level adaptation
measures, identifying components comprising the vulnerability in the community is required.
Vulnerability assessment using indices should provide quantitative backgrounds to develop
appropriate and effective agricultural community adaptation measures.
Keywords climate change, local-level adaptation, vulnerability assessment, apple farming

INTRODUCTION
Responding to additional challenges from climate change impacts will require significant adaptation
measures within agricultural communities (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural communities in Korea havealready experienced impact of climate change, including crop and livestock loss from severe drought
and flooding, large-scale losses from weather-related disasters, shifts in planning and harvesting times
and cultivation lands. According to Ministry of Environment (2015), one of the most notable andcritical climate change impact in Korea on agriculture sector is that fruit cultivation sites have beenshifting northward and this impact has been appeared mostly in apple cultivation. Total area of apple
cultivation in formerly famous southern areas, Daegu and Gyeongsang province, has been decreased
about half from 34,770 ha in 1995 to 18,889 ha in 2014 (East-North Regional Statistics Korea, 2015).
On the other hand, apple cultivation is increasing in provinces in north, such as Gyeonggi andⒸ ISERD

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Gangwon. Farmers in Gyeonggi province, particularly in Icheon and Gapyeong municipals, adapted
apple crop in their cultivation site since early 2000s. Moreover, regional government started torecognize apple as one of important crops in the areas. In recent years, through ‘Demilitarized Zone
(DMZ) apple cultivation community’ project in Paju and Yeoncheon, government supports local
farmers who wish to grow apple by providing financial and technical supports. To respond adequately
to future changing climate in relatively new and increasing apple farming communities in Gyeonggi
province, it is required to assess the risks and vulnerability. The most mutual quantitative vulnerability
assessment method is the employment of a composite index comprising a set of indicators. These
indicators represent the vulnerability of a studied system and are mathematically combined into asingle composite index (Moss et al., 2001). Although there are studies on quantifying vulnerability
using indicators, most of the studies are done in macro-level to assess national and regional level ofvulnerabilities (Yoo and Kim, 2008; Moss et al., 2001). Effective planning for climate change
adaptation programming in agricultural communities requires an assessment of local vulnerabilities so
as to bridge the gap between community needs and priorities at the local level (Burton et al., 2002).
Not only it is important to assess local level vulnerabilities but it is vital to have crop specified
vulnerability assessment considering environment, economic and social conditions of the agriculturalcommunities. This paper will conduct in-depth analysis of the local level vulnerabilities, to compare
the differences among apple growing communities by developing vulnerability index and integrating
quantitative analysis based on the intensive review of previous studies and policy reports.
OBJECTIVE
The main objective of this paper is to conduct quantitative assessment of climate change vulnerabilityof four apple farming municipals (Icheon, Gapyeong, Paju and Yeoncheon) within Gyeonggi provincein Korea. By developing and using three indices, vulnerability assessments of the areas are done toanalyze the variables that determine vulnerability of the communities and compare the differences thatexist among the apple farming communities in Gyeonggi province.
METHODOLOGYAs shown in Fig. 1, Gyeonggi province is located in the central western part of Korea and it surrounds
the cities of Seoul and is bordered by North Korea. The province has a typical continental climate thatthe annual temperature is between 10 ℃-13 ℃.
Republic of Korea

Gyeonggi Province
YEONCHEONGYEONGGI PROVINCE

PAJU

GAPYEONGICHEON

Fig. 1 Study areasⒸ ISERD

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Table 1 Overview of Gyeonggi province and 4 apple farming municipals
Indicators
Gyeonggi
IcheonGapyeong
Paju
Population (persons)
12,793,556
210,908
62,774
426,733
Population Density (person/km2)
1,234
457
74
598
Agricultural Land (ha)176,854
17,3493,706
11,445
Apple Cultivation Area (ha)
500
80
88
47
Source: Annual Statistics Report of Gyeonggi Province (2014) and statistical year book of each province

Yeoncheon
46,18069
9,012
25Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) defines vulnerability to climate change as thedegree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude andrate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC,
2001; Moss et al., 2001; Yoo and Kim., 2008). In this framework, IPCC (2007) defines the terms inclimate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity as follow: 1) exposure is the degree of climate
stimuli received from either long-term changes in climate conditions, or by changes in climate
variability, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, 2) sensitivity is the degree towhich a system will be affected by, or responsive to climate stimuli (Smit and Wandel., 2006) and it
can either be biophysical effect climate change and socio-economic changes, and 3) adaptive capacity
is the capability of a system to adapt to impacts of climate change, or, it is the potential or capability ofa system to adjust to climate change, including climate variability and extremes, so as to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences (Smit andWandel., 2006). As in Eq. (1) this paper takes IPCC (2007) approach of defining climate change
vulnerability that a system’s total vulnerability is composed of climate change exposure and sensitivity
subtracted by adaptation capacity.
Vulnerability ＝ (Climate Exposure + Sensitivity) – Adaptation(1)
Proxy variables are selected as function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, as framedby IPCC and in scrutiny based on the intensive review of previous studies, particularly on Vulnerability
Resilience Index (VRI), composite index composed of 33 indicators to conduct climate change
vulnerability assessment of 16 provincial governments in Korea (Yoo et al., 2008). Moreover, in thispaper, since the indicators are selected particularly for the assessment of apple farming, review ofvarious government reports and guidance on apple cultivation are conducted. For exposure proxyvariables, apple cultivation guideline developed by Rural Development Administration (2015) isreferenced. Unlike previous macro-level studies, this study assesses local level communities that limit
authors to select the variables based on availability of the data. Finally, 12 proxy indicators are
selected include: number of years with annual average temperature above 8℃ and below 11℃; numberof days with maximum temperature over 26℃; maximum rate of precipitation per day; number of days
with maximum wind speed over 3m/s; damages from storm and flood per capita; area of apple
cultivation per total area; rate of elderly agricultural households; beneficiaries of national basic
livelihood; Gross Regional Domestic Production per capita, productivity rate of apple per area; rate ofhousehold with Speed Spray holder; and rate of cooperative membership, to assess climate change
vulnerability of four apple farming municipals namly, Icheon, Gapyeong, Paju and Yeoncheon, in
Gyeonggi province.
Selected proxy variables are analyzed by calculation of the z-score normalization of data. Amongother normalization methods, such as scale transformation, rescaling by min-max and distance to areference, z-score is generally applied in the previous vulnerable assessment studies and this method
allows to compare the data that are from different unit. This study uses z-score method that is done bysubtracting the mean from the observed value and dividing by the standard deviation for each indicator.
This ensures that each of the rescaled variables has a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1,Ⓒ ISERD

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allowing them to be combined directly. The results of z-score normalization are able to determine
positive and negative relations of components.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Exposure is a level of acquaintance to climate risks including temperature, precipitation and windinfluencing production and quality of apple for this paper. A system is more vulnerable when it has
higher exposure to climate. In analyzing the result of climate exposure, a system is relatively
vulnerable if it has a greater z-score. Although production and the quality of apple are influenced bymany different elements during a year around, for the purpose of this paper, annual temperature,maximum temperature during April to August, precipitation rate and wind during apple harvest period,
April to October, are considered. Apple can be grown satisfactorily with annual average temperature
between 8 and 11. Moreover, temperature over 26℃ during April to August can produce undesirable
effect on the shape of apple. Sweetness of apple is affected by precipitation rate during April to
October. With higher precipitation, level of sweetness of apple will fall. In addition to quality of apple,
abscission of apple also influences the production of apple cultivation. Abscission occurs with windspeed over 3m/s during cultivation season. As shown in Table 2, with regard to climate exposure index,
z-scores for the total vulnerability show positive for Icheon (1.64) and Gapyeong (1.28). The positive
z-scores indicate that Icheon and Gapyeong are more exposed to climate risks than Paju andYeoncheon. More specifically, Icheon and Gapyeong are found to have relatively higher vulnerability
to be exposed to climate risks such as in adequate temperature and precipitation for shape andsweetness of apple. In other words, this results indicate Paju (-2.81) and Yeoncheon (-0.09) are lessvulnerable to be exposed to the climate risks related to temperature and precipitation for developing
adequate shape and sweetness of apple. However, Paju and Yeoncheon show relatively higher
vulnerability in climate exposure with strong wind. This indicates that apple farms in Paju andYeoncheon are more vulnerable to abscission from wind. By developing prevention of impact fromstrong wind, farmers in Paju and Yeoncheon can increase the production of apple.
Table 2 Result of Z-scores on climate exposure index of 4 apple farming municipals
Proxy Variables
IcheonGapyeong
0.79
1.14
Number of yrs. with annual avg. temperature, ＜8 ℃ or ＞11 ℃*
0.00
0.97
Number of days with maximum temperature over 26 ℃**
Maximum rate of precipitation per day***
1.36
0.35
Number of days with max. wind speed over 3m/s***
-0.51
-1.18
Total vulnerability in climate exposure
1.64
1.28
Source: National Climate Data System (http://sts.kma.go.kr/, accessed October 28, 2015)*data for 2004-2014, **data for April to August of 2014, ***data for April to October of 2014

Paju
-1.31
-1.62
-1.40
1.52
-2.81

Yeoncheon
-0.61
0.65
-0.30
0.72
-0.09

Sensitivity proxy variables are selected to reflect a degree to which the apple farming in study
areas will be affected by, or responsive to changing climate. If a system is sensitive, it can be affectedby small changes in climate. In this paper, proxy variables are selected by taking the system’sgeographical and socio-economical elements into account. For geographical elements, apple cultivation
area and total cost of damage from storm and flood variable are selected. For population elements suchas higher rate of single household with over 80 years old residents and socially vulnerable population
are selected to analyze how the community is sensitive to climate stimuli. Sensitivity indicators are
positively related to climate change vulnerability. This means that if the z-scores show positive andgreater numbers, then the variables are relatively more sensitive to changing climate and by thedefinition, sensitive system is more vulnerable to climate change. In Table 3, Icheon (0.75) and
Gapyeong (3.05) municipals show positive z-score in sensitivity whereas Paju (-3.07) and YeoncheonⒸ ISERD

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IJERD – International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development (2016) 7-1(-1.17) show negative. More specifically, except for damages from storm and flood, Gapyeong is foundto be the most vulnerable relative to other areas in all other factors. Unlike climate exposure, it ispossible to lessen vulnerability related to sensitivity to climate change by developing policies that
focus on moderating risks of vulnerable population, elderly people and beneficiaries of national basic
livelihood, living in the area.
Table 3 Result of Z-scores on sensitivity index of 4 apple farming municipals
Proxy Variables
IcheonGapyeong
Paju
Damages from storm and flood per capita (won)
1.61
-0.10
-1.11
Area of apple cultivation per total area (%)
1.53
0.16
-0.52
Rate of elderly (+80) agricultural households (%)
-1.00
1.66
-0.45
Beneficiaries of national basic livelihood (%)
-0.94
1.33
-0.99
Total vulnerability in sensitivity
0.75
3.05
-3.07
Source: Annual Statistics Report of Gyeonggi Province (2014) and statistical year book of each province

Yeoncheon
-0.39
-1.17
-0.21
0.60
-1.17

Adaptive capacity refers to potential or capability of a system to adjust to climate change, so as tomoderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the concerns.
Economic capacity including Gross Regional Domestic Production (GRDP) and productivity rate ofapple can determine how the system can economically, moderate, recover or even prevent itself from
impact of climate change. Physical infrastructure, such as Speed Spray, can be used to prevent damages
from insects and this can eventually support production to increase. Being member of cooperative can
influence adaptive capacity of a system by acquiring information and support easier than nonmembers.
Unlike exposure and sensitivity to climate, higher adaptive capacity is negatively related tovulnerability that negative and smaller z-core means higher level of vulnerability. Less adaptive
capacity means that a system is less capable of adapting to changing climate that is associated withmore vulnerable circumstances. The results in Table 4 show that compared to Paju (-1.14) andYeoncheon (-2.75), Icheon (2.71) and Gapyeong (1.20) are higher in adaptive capacity. Among theareas, Icheon is the highest in adaptive capacity and this is due to higher development level of apple
community in Icheon than other areas. On the other hand, Paju and Yeoncheon show lower level ofadaptive capacity, however, in these areas, increasing government support for apple farming by
providing Speed Spray and education on apple cultivation have potential to increase adaptive capacity
in the future which will make the areas to have favorable condition of apple production.
Table 4 Result of Z-scores on adaptive capacity index of 4 apple farming municipals
Proxy Variables
IcheonGapyeong
Paju
Gross Regional Domestic Production per capita (won)
1.37
-0.79
0.53
Productivity rate of apple per area (kg/10a)
0.42
1.44
-0.79
Rate of household with Speed Spray holder (%)
0.57
-0.16
-1.54
Rate of cooperative membership (%)
0.34
0.71
0.66
Total vulnerability in adaptive capacity
2.71
1.20
-1.14
Source: Annual Statistics Report of Gyeonggi Province (2014) and statistical year book of each province

Yeoncheon
-1.11
-1.06
1.13
-1.71
-2.75

CONCLUSION
Agricultural communities are highly depending on natural resources that are affected by climatechange. Adequate adaptation measures are required for agricultural communities to moderate potential
damages and to take advantage of opportunities related to changing climate. Particularly in Korea,changing climate moves the fruit cultivation sites to north-ward to Gyeonggi province. Moreover,increasing damages from extreme events increased needs for adaptation measures for fruit cultivatingⒸ ISERD

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communities. To develop effective adaptation measures, it requires vulnerability assessments in thecommunities. In our study, to increase adaptive capacity of apple farming communities, climate change
vulnerability assessment for four apple farming communities in Gyeonggi province in Korea are
conducted. A climate change vulnerability assessment index was developed to include climate
exposure, sensitivity and adaptation to assess climate change vulnerability of Icheon, Gapyeong, Paju
and Yeoncheon in Gyeonggi Province, in Korea. The main results of the vulnerability assessments canbe grouped into three different parts, climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability
related to climate exposure assessed the community’s climate condition whether it is adequate for theapple cultivations or not. Among four apple farming communities, Icheon is shown to be the mostvulnerable followed by Gapyeong, Yeoncheon and Paju. The result shows that inadequate temperatureand precipitation in Icheon and Gapyeong could lead the communities more vulnerable. Although
Yeoncheon is less vulnerable in total climate exposure, Yeoncheon is highly exposed to wind that thecommunity should develop the adaptive measures, such as windshield, to prevent damages from strong
winds. Moreover, the vulnerability assessment found Gapyeong as the most sensitive to climate change
followed by Icheon, Yeoncheon and Paju. The reason that Gapyeong was more vulnerable was most
likely related to its demographical characteristics: increasing rate of elderly agricultural households andbeneficiaries of national basic livelihood. Thus, it is recommended that Gapyeong municipal to support
agricultural labor productivity in the region to maintain apple cultivation. Unlike climate exposure andsensitivity, adaptive capacity was found to be higher in Icheon and Gapyeong compared to Paju andYeoncheon. The higher adaptive capacity was associated with earlier adaptors of apple cultivation,
Icheon and Gapyeong, who have already created their own communities to share their know-how anddeveloped technologies to cope with climate damages.
The results of this study can provide vital information on allocation of critical resources in eachapple farming municipals to develop effective adaptation measure and policies. This can prevent andreduce the damages from climate change impact in apple communities in Gyeonggi province. By
understanding different elements that induce climate change vulnerability, apple farming communities
can increase its adaptive capacity and lessen the damage from the impacts. However, a broader
application of vulnerability assessment index should have clearer understanding of climate change
vulnerability in apple farming communities. Moreover, this study can be more developed to be applied
to other regions and other sectors to be referred in integrated climate change vulnerability assessmentof rural agricultural communities.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful to Gyeonggi government officers, Choung Byoung-Gug National Assembly
office and the apple farmers in Gapyeonggi province for their supports.
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