SLT Report

March 21, 2004

Analysis & Commentary

Why does Netanyahu refuse a ceasefire?
－Israeli Jewish's consciousness as seen from the polls－
Akihito Fuse, INPEX Solutions, LTD.

Contents
1.

What's Behind Netanyahu's Bulls: Public Opinion Among Jewish Israelis ......................... 1

2.

Israeli Jewish Opposes Palestinian State ....................................................................... 2

3.

Jewish's Religiosity And Political Orientation ................................................................. 3

4.

Whether The Next Prime Minister Is Netanyahu Or Not Netanyahu, Will Israel Remain The
Same? ........................................................................................................................... 4

5.

Is There A Physical Basis For A "Two-State Solution" On The Palestinian Issue? ......... 56.

Is It Possible To Achieve A "One-state, Two-Ethnic Solution"? .................................... 7

7.

The Separation Wall, The Fait Accompli And Entrenchment Of Division, And The Retreat
Of Peace ....................................................................................................................... 8

In the Middle East, Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting, began on March 11. Five months have passed
since the Israeli-Gaza war began on October 7 last year, and negotiations for a temporary ceasefire byRamadan, mediated by Qatar and Egypt, have not yet been concluded. In the middle of this month,
Hamas proposed a new ceasefire that would include an exchange of detained hostages with Palestinians
imprisoned in Israel, but Netanyahu rejected it as “unrealistic”. Netanyahu also said on March 17 that
he would invade the southernmost city of Rafah to continue military operations against Hamas in Gaza.

1.

What's Behind Netanyahu's Bulls: Public Opinion Among Jewish Israelis
US President Joe Biden said in a television interview earlier this monththat "more attention must be paid to the lives of innocent people" overthe fighting in Gaza and that an Israeli military invasion of Rafah, thesouthernmost region of the country, was a "red line". The US has acted
in contradictory ways, including dropping humanitarian supplies into the
Gaza Strip from the air but continuing to provide arms aid to Israel,saying "Israel has the right to attack Hamas."

In response to the Biden administration, Netanyahu has said that the

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March 21, 2004

war will not stop until it achieves its goal of complete victory. In response to the ceasefire
negotiations with Hamas, Netanyahu reiterated in a press conference that he would destroy theIslamist movement in Palestine, saying that Israel has no choice but to destroy Hamas and that acomplete victory over Hamas would be the only solution to the Gaza conflict. Continued militarypressure is also needed to release the hostages, he said.

Behind Prime Minister Netanyahu's
stance of continuing the war toannihilate

Hamas,

there

is

a

personal reason that "He would beforced to resign as prime ministerfor

failingtoprevent

Hamas

attacks if there was a ceasefire,
and after leaving office he would bea defendant in a corruption trial."
but other than that, there is a situation in which public opinion in the Israeli Jewish is divided between
the objective of the war: the release of hostages or the annihilation of Hamas. The Israeli Democracy
Institute has continuously conducted public opinion polls and published results since the beginningof the Israeli-Hamas war. Based on this, among Jewish, which accounts for about 75% of the Israeli
population, half of the Israeli population supports Netanyahu's statement that the war will not stop
until the annihilation of Hamas, and in particular, just under 60% of the right wing of Jewish supports
it. Public opinion is divided, with 60% of the center Jewish and 80% of the left supporting the releaseof the hostages. (However, the attack on Hamas after the release of the hostages is not being
denied.)2.

Israeli Jewish Opposes Palestinian State
Public opinion among the Jewish
people of Israel is low in support of
Saudi Arabia's claim that "In order
to normalize diplomatic relations
with Israel, we must first allow theestablishmentofaPalestinianstate." Fewer than 30% of Jewish
support the idea of package forrecognizing a Palestinian state andestablishing diplomatic

relationswith an Arab state. 70% of Jewish opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state. Among the Israeli
Jewish, only the leftists, now a political minority, want a Palestinian state and a peace treaty with afuture Arab state. In the U.S.-brokered normalization talks with Saudi Arabia, the Israeli parliament

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March 21, 2004

overwhelmingly rejected the idea of an independent Palestinian state in response to Saudi Arabia's
demand for recognition of a Palestinian state.

Why is Jewish so rejecting a
Palestinian state? Opinion polls
show that Jewish believes that theestablishment of a Palestinianstate will increase terrorism. 60% of
Israelis on the right say that theestablishment of a Palestinian
state

will

increaseterrorism

against Jewish, and 25% says nochange. Totally 85% of those whoare negative. Again, the views of the right and the left are opposite, with 56% of those on the leftbelieving that a Palestinian state
would

reduceterrorism.

The

centrists are divided equally thatterrorism will increase, stay thesame, and decrease. As result, 44%of those on Jewish as a whole
believethatterrorism

will

increase. Based on this negative
view, no wonder they oppose theestablishment of a Palestinianstate.

3.

Jewish's Religiosity And Political Orientation
The 2022 edition of theIsraeli

Democracy

Institute's annual

report(The Jewish Democracy
Index 2022) reports therelationshippolitical

betweenorientation

andJewish religiosity. Although
self-reported, half of all
respondents

inJewishconsiderthemselves"right-wing," 1/4 consider themselves "centrist," and less than 20% identify themselves as "left-

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March 21, 2004

wing." There is a relationship between this political orientation and Jewish religiosity, and theoverwhelming majority of "National religious, so-called religious Zionism" and "Haredi (ultraOrthodox)" Jews identify themselves as right-wing. More than half of "Traditional (religious and nonreligious)", which are around 35% of Jewish, identify themselves as right-wing. Majority, more than
40%,

of

Jewishare"Secular" and they are
equally divided to threepolitical orientations. In thepast 10 years or so, thepercentage of "Secular"
has not changed, but the
numberof "Traditional"

has gradually decreased,
and the number of "Haredi(ultra-Orthodox)"

and"religious Zionists" has increased.

4.

Whether The Next Prime Minister Is Netanyahu Or Not Netanyahu, Will Israel Remain The
Same?
The current Netanyahu government is still in power through a coalition of religious Zionist and ultraOrthodox parties, as the right-wing Likud party, headed by Netanyahu, cannot win a majority. It is
widely regarded as a right-wing and far-right government, and the words and actions of ministers of
the far-right parties are said to have led to growing friction between Palestinians in the Occupied
Territories

anddivision

between Jewish and Arab
Israelis.

However,

Prime

Minister Netanya, who has
been rejected by right-wingparties as well as centerand left parties because of
hisrepeated

politicallydishonest actions, cannot
maintain his government
without partnering with farright parties.

Amid this situation, opinion polls show Gantz, not Netanyahu, as the "next prime minister." Gantz
has 40~45% support, especially among the center and left, while Netanyahu's support has gone fromzero to single digits. Only the right supports Netanyahu, but that still falls short of 30%. Given this,4 / 10SLT Report

March 21, 2004
Netanyahu is not surprised
to think that "We must avoid
a general election now."

However, even if other than
Netanyahu is the next prime
minister, Israel's line will notchange unless the Jewish
publicopinionsignificant

showschange.

aThis

unexpected huge success"October 7" Hamas raid may have reinforced the Israeli Jewish's rejection of a Palestinian state.
Since its founding in 1948, Israel has been at battle with Arab for a long time with the Four Middle
East Wars with Arab states until 1973 and the ongoing struggle against the PLO and other non-state
Arab armed groups. Israel has been at war with Egypt and other Arab countries between regular
armed forces, which resulted in thousands of deaths, but in the struggle against non-state armed
groups since the 2000s, only a few people on the Israeli side have died and only a few civilians have
died.

But,

"October

in

7"

the

attack,Middle East War

Suez Crisis

1300 civilian casualties

Six-Days War

on

side,

War of Attrition

which is unparalleled.

Yom Kippur War

The

Israelimassiveof2006 Lebanon War

victims

reminded694~1,424
2,521~2,800

6 Oct. 1973~25 Oct. 1973

number(Egypt)11,496~18,200

776~983

1 July 1967~7 Aug. 1970

Lebanese Civil War

1,650~3,000(＋UK/France 32)

5 June 1967~10 June 1967

the

4,000
(Egypt, Jordan, Syria)

172

29 Oct. 1956~7 Nov. 1956

of

shock

Deaths on the Arab states/Palestine

6,080

14 May 1948~20 July 1949

there were more thanthe

Deaths on the Islareli1948 Palestine war(Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq)
5,748~12,866(Egypt, PLO, Jordan, USSR, Cuba, Syria)
8,487~18,987(Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Morocco, Cuba)

13 Apr. 1975~13 Oct. 1990
121

12 July 2006~14 Aug. 2006
2006 Gaza-Israel Conflict
Gaza War (2008-2009)"pogrom"(collective

2014 Gaza War

persecution

against402(inc. 117 civilians)

11 (inc. 6 civilians)

28 June 2006~26 Nov. 2006

Jewish of the Russian279~629(Hizbollah, Others) (+Lebanese citizens 1,191)

13 (inc.3 civilians)

27 Dec. 2008~18 Jan. 2009

73 (inc. 6 civilians)

8 July 2014~26 Aug. 2014
Israel-Hamas War

1,410 (inc. 764 civilians)

7 Oct. 2023~(Fatah, Hamas, Others)
1,166~1,417(inc. many civilians)(Hamas, Others)
2,125~2,130(44~70% civilians)(Hamas, Others)
over 30,228 (majority were civilians)(Hamas, Others) (plus 382 in West Bank)(Data : Wikipedia, other public source)

Jewish) in the early

19~20 century and the Nazi "Holocaust" in the 20 century, resulting in excessive counterattacks.
On the other hand, today's Israeli invasion of Gaza resulted in more than 30,000 victims and large
numbers of refugees. This tragedy reminded Palestinians of the "Nakba" of 1948. The grudge
between Jewish and the Palestinians only grew.

5.

Is There A Physical Basis For A "Two-State Solution" On The Palestinian Issue?
Although the Oslo Accords were agreed upon between Israel and the PLO in 1993 as a way to solve
the Palestinian problem, the establishment of a Palestinian state, which was aimed beyond that, has
not been achieved yet. The "two-state solution," which aims at "the peaceful and secure

5 / 10SLT ReportcoexistenceofIsraelMarch 21, 2004
andafutureindependent

Palestinian state," was proposed by the United Nationsin 1974 based on UN General Assembly Resolution 194
of 1948. The territory of a Palestinian state assumed bymany parties is the "green line" West Bank and Gaza
Strip under the 1949 Ceasefire Agreement. However, thecurrent Israeli-occupied West Bank is divided into Area
A where the Palestinian Authority has executive andpolice powers, and Area B where the Palestinian
Authority has executive and Israeli forces have police
powers, and Area C where the Israeli army has both
executive and military powers. In addition, there is thesettlement of Jewish, which continues to expand and issaid to house 710,000 Jewish settlers. As a result, Area
C and settlements exceed 60% of the West Bank, and theeffective land ratio between Israel and Palestine is 92:8
as of today.

Looking at the transition from the time when all ofPalestine was under the British Mandate and TrustTerritory prior to the establishment of Israel, since the"Peel Partition Plan" of 1937, the ratio of the area of theJewish State to the Arab State was 57:43 according to
the UN General Assembly Resolution 181 (Resolution on
the Partition of Palestine) of 1947, and the ratio of thearea of the "Green Line" according to the Ceasefire
Agreement of 1949 was 75:25. This is now 92:8 as oftoday. Given that the population of both sides is roughly
the same as 9.5 million in Israel (including Arabs) and 9.62
million in Palestine (including 6.37 million refugees to be
returned), there is no physical basis for a Palestinian state
unless the territory is at least "Green Line" land.
However, Israel will never make concessions to return theentire occupied territory, including settlements.

If the international community wants a "two-statesolution" and a Palestinian state as a "two-statesolution" is to be realized as acceptable, the international
community must force Israel to return the occupied territories. Without this, a "two-state solution"

6 / 10SLT Report

March 21, 2004

would only force the Palestinian people to ratify the status quo, and would the Palestinian people besatisfied with that?

6.

Is It Possible To Achieve A "One-state, Two-Ethnic Solution"?
Considering the reality of the situation, the land of Palestine and Israel are moving toward a "onestate, two ethnics solution". It means that all of the Palestinian land currently controlled by Israel isannexed by the Israelis, and Jewish and Arabs (Palestinians) shall live in a country called Israel. (Even
if only a little land is given to Palestinian state.)

In Israel, which does not have a written constitution, the Israeli Declaration of Independence in 1948
replaced the constitution, and basic laws are set for each field. The Declaration of Independence
states that Israel "it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants
irrespective of religion, race or sex" and that "to the Arab inhabitants of the State of Israel topreserve peace and participate in the upbuilding of the State on the basis of full and equal citizenshipand due representation in all its provisional and permanent institutions". In the Declaration of
Independence, Israel describes itself as a "Democracies" where full equality and representation are
guaranteed to all its inhabitants. On the other hand, Netanyahu's government enacted the Basic Law:
Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People, in 2018. It stated that "The State of Israel is thenational home of the Jewish people" and "The right to exercise national self-determination in theState of Israel is unique to the Jewish people." making Hebrew the only official language, andremoving Arabic, which had been an official language along with Hebrew, from the list of official
languages. When the Nation-State Law was enacted, Arab residents of Israel objected, saying, "alaw stating that Jewish's dominance is the foundation of the system, and that Arabs will always be"second-class citizens"".

The

Jewishcurrent

Israeli

population is about 9.5 million, of
which about 25% are non-Jewish,
including Arabs. Even at thispoint, Israel is not a single-nation
state. There are Arab politicalparties in Israel, and they seat inparliament.

Nevertheless,themajority of Israelis are Jewish,
and Jewish is controlling thestate. But as religious Zionists want, when Israel annexed the Gaza Strip and the West Bank,
Palestinians living here will become citizens of Israel. The "Greater Israel" of "one state, two
ethnics" have emerged, and at that time the ratio of Jewish and Palestinians living in the "Greater
Israel" is about 7 million each, roughly 50/50.

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March 21, 2004

If Israel were a democracy, it would not be able to treat Palestinians differently, and it would give allits citizens equal rights, such as suffrage as it does now. At that time, the composition of themembers of the National Assembly could change drastically. On the other hand, if the state of Jewish
insists on adhering to the Nation-State Law, it will deprive the rights of ethnic groups other thanJewish and implement an "apartheid" policy based on racist ideology. In either case, there is a great
contradiction in terms of "one state, two ethnics."

The first Israeli prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, is said to have pointed out that there are threeelements to the Israeli state identity: a "Jewish state," a "Democracies," and "possession of all
occupied territory (including the West Bank and the Gaza Strip)". Based on these identities, he issaid to have pointed out that the Israel can choose two of these, but not all three. Whether to return
the occupied territories to Palestine according to "two states solution", to make "one state, two
ethnics"

democracies

without

Jewish domination, or establish"one state, two ethnics" Jewish
state without democracy. (BenGurion, who had left office as prime
minister, was in favor of the returnof all occupied territory after theThird Middle East War, except
Jerusalem, the Golan Heights andMount Hebron.)If there is a way to get all of three, isn't there only a way to carry out ethnic cleansing, excluding all
Palestinians from "Greater Israel"?

7.

The Separation Wall, The Fait Accompli And Entrenchment Of Division, And The Retreat Of
Peace
The West Bank and Gaza Strip are now surrounded by a separation wall built by Israel, which did notexist at the outset. Old Palestinians say they had relative freedom of movement for some time after
Israel captured both areas in the Yom Kippur War. According to the analysts, the freedom of
movement of Palestinians in the occupied territories was gradually restricted, which is divided into
the following categories:.
1.

Open Bridge Policy (1967〜1973?)➢

2.

Relatively free movement was possible.

Iron Fist Policy (1977〜1993?)➢

The Camp David Accords effectively ended the Palestinian issue as a war between
nations.

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March 21, 2004

Terrorism by non-state armed groups such as the PLO and collective punishment
against them by Israel.

➢
3.

From the First Intifada to the Oslo Accords.

Separation Policy (Hafrada) (2000〜)➢

2nd Intifada.

➢

Construction of the West Bank separation wall (2002〜)➢

Rise of Hamas. Israel withdrawal from Gaza, blockade of Gaza, and repeated Gaza
conflict.

Since 2002, the separation wall has
been built around the West Bank andthe settlement of Jewish in the West
Bank,

with

the

Israeliaim

of"preventing suicide bombings" byPalestinian militant groups. The Israeli
government says that the constructionof the separation wall has significantly
reduced the number of Palestiniansuicide bombings of Israeli citizens(from 47 cases 238 deaths in 2002, to
2 cases 1 death in 2008).

In addition to ensuring the safety of
Israeli citizens, there are indications
that the separation wall has entered the Green Line and surrounded the settlement of Jewish,
thereby "making the settlement of Jewish a fait accompli". Furthermore, the existence of theseparation wall has divided the lives of Palestinians, and a resolution was passed by the UN General
Assembly in 2003 to condemn the construction of the wall as unfair discrimination. The International
Court of Justice also stated in 2004 that the construction of the separation wall violated internationallaw. Despite these concerns and condemnations from the international community, Israel proceededwith the construction of the separation wall.

Although the separation wall has been criticized for violations of Palestinian human rights and theestablishment of a fait accompli in the settlement of Jewish, the separation wall also may have
served to completely cut off little exchanges and spiritual ties between Jewish and Palestinians that
overcome ethnic and religious differences. This separation wall may have made Palestine moreinvisible in Israel. It can be assumed that invisible of Palestine accelerated the retreat of efforts
toward peace by promoting a rightward shift in the country represented by religious Zionists, whoclaim that the Palestinians do not exist in Israel and insisting on Jewish priority.

9 / 10SLT Report

March 21, 2004==============================================================================

Referenced PollThe Israel Democracy Institute : https://en.idi.org.il/(End)

Keyword:#Israel-Gasa War, #Palestinian Issue, #Palestine, #Gaza, #Hamas, #Israel, #Netanyahu, #Jews,#Jewish, #Palestinians, #Ceasefire, #Ultra-Orthodoxy, #Religious Zionism, #Two-State Solution, #One
Nation, Two Ethnics, #West Bank, #Separation Wall, #Jewish Settlement

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here by Authors are their own, not those of
INPEX Solutions, LTD.

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