Briefing Paper
June 2018

Estimating Global CivilianHELD Firearms Numbers
Aaron Karp

Civilian-held Firearms Numbers

1Credits andcontributors
Copy-editors: Tania Inowlocki andAlex Potter (alex.potter@mweb.co.za)
Proofreader: Donald Strachan
Design and layout: Rick Jones(rick@studioexile.com)
Printed by nbmedia in Geneva,
Switzerland
First edition: September 2011
This edition: June 2018

Front cover photo
A hunter walks with his dog, Castell’Azzara, Italy,
November 2015. Source: Max Rossi/Reuters

2

Briefing Paper June 2018

About the author
Aaron Karp is a senior consultant at the Small Arms Survey and a senior lecturer
in Political Science at Old Dominion University. Previously he held positions at
Columbia University, Harvard University, the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik,
and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His early research contributed to the creation of the Missile Technology Control Regime. He served asconsultant to the United Nations Secretary-General on missiles and nuclear weapons, and contributed to the US Commission to Assess Ballistic Missile Threats to
the United States. At the Small Arms Survey his work concentrates on the global
distribution of small arms.

Acknowledgements
The Small Arms Survey wishes to express its gratitude to all the governments, andregional and international organizations that supported this project financially andwith data and responses to inquiries, as well as the non-governmental organizations,journalists, researchers, and scholars who contributed the details and reports that
helped to make this publication possible.

Overview
Uncertainty about any firearms data requires systematic estimation that relies on a broad spectrum of sources and makes
approximation unavoidable. The Small Arms Survey’s estimatesof civilian firearms holdings use data gathered from multiple
sources. However, with much of civilian ownership concealedor hard to identify, gun ownership numbers can only approximate reality. Using data from several different sources, at theend of 2017 there were approximately 857 million civilian-held
firearms in the world’s 230 countries and territories. Civilian
firearms registration data was available for 133 countries andterritories. Survey results were used to help establish total
gun civilian holdings in 56 countries. The new figure is 32 percent higher than the previous estimate from 2006, when the
Small Arms Survey estimated there were approximately 650
million civilian-held firearms. Virtually all countries show
higher numbers, although national ownership rates vary
widely, reflecting factors such as national legislation, a country’s gun culture, historical and other factors. While some of
the increase reflects improved data and research methods,
much is due to actual growth of civilian ownership.

Key findings
There were approximately 857 million civilian-held firearms
in the world at the end of 2017.
Roughly 100 million civilian firearms were reported as registered, accounting for some 12 per cent of the global total.
National ownership rates vary from about 120.5 firearms
for every 100 residents in the United States to less than
1 firearm for every 100 residents in countries like Indonesia,
Japan, Malawi, and several Pacific island states.
There are regional or national surveys concerning civilian
holdings for 56 countries and territories.

Introduction
Most of the world’s firearms are privately
owned, which makes documenting theirprecise number particularly challenging.
Official registration totals provide themost reliable data, although they do not
capture the full spectrum of firearms incivilian hands. Estimates, even the mostcomprehensive, are often not reliable.
Maximizing both comprehensivenessand reliability requires the consideration of a wide range of sources. This
Briefing Paper shows how a variety ofdata sources can be combined to generatebetter estimates of total firearms ownership for a specific country, as well as a
global figure.
The sources and methods used by
the Small Arms Survey show there wereapproximately 857 million civilian-held
firearms in 230 states and autonomous
territories at the end of 2017 (see Box 1).1
The new figure is 32 per cent higher (207
million more) than the previous global
number, when the Small Arms Survey
estimated approximately 650 million
civilian-held firearms in 2006 (Small
Arms Survey, 2007, p. 39).
While some of the higher figures forcivilian-held firearms reflect improved
data and research methods (see Box 4),
a significant part is due to changes in
actual ownership levels. With the world’s
factories delivering millions of newly manufactured firearms annually and with far
fewer being destroyed, civilian ownershipappears to be growing globally (Bauer,
2013; Small Arms Survey, 2007, p. 64;2018). In the United States alone civilians acquired at least 122 million new
or imported firearms during the period
2006–17 (ATF, 2017a; 2017b). National
ownership rates vary significantly froma high of about 120.5 firearms for every
100 people in the United States to lessthan 1 firearm for every 100 residents incountries like Indonesia, Japan, Malawi,
and several Pacific island states (seeTables 1 and 2; Small Arms Survey, 2018).
The legal definition of a civilian firearm varies.2 For example, some statesallow civilian ownership of firearms thatare restricted to military use in otherstates.3 As a result, and depending on
the setting, the firearms reviewed in thisBriefing Paper range from improvised craft
weapons to factory-made handguns, rifles,
shotguns, and in some countries evenmachine guns (see Boxes 2 and 3). The
word civilian is used here to refer to who
possesses the weapons, not their specific
type or legal status. Numbers provided
here include all firearms in civilian hands,
both licit and illicit. Wherever possible,
the civilian total includes the firearms ofprivate security firms, as well as those ofCivilian-held Firearms Numbers

3At the end of 2017 there were approximately 1,013 million firearms in the 230 countries
and autonomous territories of the world, 84.6 per cent of which were held by civilians, 13.1
per cent by state militaries, and 2.2 per cent by law enforcement agencies (see Figure 2).

non-state armed groups and gangs. These
sub-categories represent a small fractionof the civilian total, although they can bedisproportionately significant in armed
violence in some settings (Small Arms
Survey, 2010, p. 103).

The 2017 combined global total of 1,013 million firearms is higher than the previously
published Small Arms Survey global total of 875 million firearms in 2006, an increase of
15.7 per cent for all identified firearms. Much of this change is due to an increase of 32
per cent in the estimated civilian-held firearms total. Reported global totals for the law
enforcement and military categories show net decreases, mostly due to changes in estimating procedures.

Comparative sources on
civilian firearm ownershipBox 1 Global breakdown of firearms numbers

While the global total for 2017 is significantly higher than that in 2006, not allchanges at the country level are due to a
growth of civilian firearms holdings. Somevariations since 2006 are also affected by
the availability of more complete reportingor more comprehensive estimates.
Every effort has been made to ensure
the reliability of Small Arms Survey data,
but not all entries are equally complete.
In some areas—especially law enforcement and the military—some government
agencies and stockpiles may have been
missed. The Survey methodology counts
all firearms equally, although they canvary greatly in capability, reliability, anddurability.

Figure 1 Global firearms ownership
estimates, 2017
Civilians (857 million)
Law enforcement (22.7 million)
Military (133 million)

Table 1 Estimated total civilian-held legal and illicit firearms in the 25 topranked countries and territories, 2017
United States

393,300,000

Turkey13,200,000

Saudi Arabia

5,500,000

India

71,100,000

France12,700,000

South Africa

5,400,000

China

49,700,000

Canada12,700,000

Colombia

5,000,000

Pakistan

43,900,000

Thailand

10,300,000

Ukraine4,400,000

Russian Federation

17,600,000

Italy

8,600,000

Afghanistan

4,300,000

Brazil

17,500,000

Iraq

7,600,000

Egypt

3,900,000

Mexico16,800,000

Nigeria

6,200,000

Philippines

3,800,000

Germany

15,800,000

Venezuela

5,900,000

Yemen

14,900,000

Iran

5,900,000

Source: Small Arms Survey (2018)

Table 2 Estimated rate of civilian firearms holdings in the 25 top-ranked
countries and territories, 2017 (firearms per 100 residents)
United States

120.5

Iceland

31.7

Sweden

23.1

Yemen

52.8

Bosnia and Herzegovina

31.2

Pakistan

22.3

Montenegro

39.1

Austria

30.0

Portugal

21.3

Serbia39.1

Macedonia*

29.8

France19.6

Canada34.7

Norway28.8

Germany

19.6

Uruguay

34.7

Malta

28.3

Iraq

19.6

Cyprus34.0

Switzerland

27.6

Luxembourg

18.9

Finland

32.4

New Zealand

26.3

Lebanon

31.9

Kosovo**23.8

Notes: This table excludes countries and territories with a population of under 150,000. * Macedonia = the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. ** The designation of Kosovo is without prejudice to positions on status andis in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244 and the International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo
declaration of independence.
Source: Small Arms Survey (2018)

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Briefing Paper June 2018

While it is generally easy to be certain of
the existence of some guns, it is almost
impossible to be sure of the total numberof all guns. Poor record-keeping and thenear absence of reporting requirements
in much of the world complicate assessments of global stockpiles. Differencesin national ‘gun culture’—each country’s
distinctive combination of historic andcurrent sources of supply, laws, andattitudes towards firearms ownershipand use—are no less important. In theprocess of estimating civilian firearmownership, differences in national ‘gun
culture’ often have effects not just on firearms availability, but also on sensitivity
to, and the classification and perceptionof, firearms. And at the empirical level,categories of firearm holders may overlap, such as when individuals use private
firearms as security guards, in armed
groups, or in gangs. Uncertainty about
any firearm data requires systematic
estimation to rely on a broad spectrumof sources and makes approximation
unavoidable.
The Small Arms Survey’s civilian
ownership estimates emphasize data
gathered from multiple sources. These
are systematically integrated to generate
the total estimate for each country (Box 4).
The available data sources include published official documents and researchstudies on countries and regions, official
responses to questionnaires from the Small
Arms Survey, public opinion surveys, news
reports, and private correspondence withexperts. When possible, highest and lowest numbers are discarded as outliers.
Six data sources deserving special
emphasis are reviewed here. Four areemphasized in the Small Arms Survey’s
Civilian Firearms Holdings 2017 database. Two others feature prominently inthe literature on civilian holdings, but
are not used here.

Firearms registration
Especially where it is mandatory andwidely accepted, registration can be themost reliable indicator of overall private
gun ownership. With the help of governments, research, and media reporting,A gun owner waits his turn during a firearms registration programme, Nueva Italia, Mexico, April 2014. Source: Alan Ortega/Reutersa global total of roughly 100 million registered firearms have been identified in
133 countries and territories (Small Arms
Survey, 2018).
But registration systems can be quirky.
In the absence of automatic renewal, forexample, weapons can disappear frompublic records and statistics. In somecountries, registration totals include otherkinds of weapons, such as air guns in
Scotland or swords in Japan (BBC, 2016;
Karp, 2017). In the United States, only
specific categories of weapons require
federal registration, and in many countries registration is not systematicallyrespected, resulting in very low registration totals (ATF, 2017b, p. 15; Gould andLamb, 2004). Even in countries withsophisticated registration systems, registration totals remain incomplete. Olderguns and privately or illegally traded
weapons regularly escape registration.

Surveys
The findings of surveys on gun ownershipcan be especially useful. The greatest
appeal of polling is comprehensiveness:
it should cover all civilian firearms. But thesensitivity of gun ownership can weaken
the reliability of responses. Survey results

depend on question wording, while sampling issues and social biases can affectresponses. The lowest estimates of civilian ownership are often from surveys. If
expert estimates can appear to exaggerate
figures, surveys are sometimes suspectedof underreporting (Wellford, Pepper, andPetrie, 2005, pp. 34–37, 57–58). In the
United States, for example, there is a growing trend among gun owners to refuse toanswer surveys on firearm possession(Urbatsch, 2018). As a result, survey
results, like other measures of ownership, should be combined with datafrom other sources whenever possible.
Survey results were used to help
establish total gun ownership in 56 countries. There are several ways in which surveys can ask about firearms, so adjusting
results is necessary to make them fullycomparable. Many surveys measure not
the number of guns, but the proportionof individuals or households that hold atleast one gun. Many studies of crime andviolence collect information on the presence of firearms in households. Whensurveys ask about individual ownership,
findings must be corrected for the population surveyed, which is usually just adults.
The largest international survey project
on individual gun owners examined 28
countries (European Commission, 2013).

Expert estimatesAmong the most common figures on gun
ownership are personal estimates byknowledgeable observers. Their impressions are useful, but they can also differ
dramatically. In some countries, such
estimates have diverged by a factor of ten(Small Arms Survey, 2007, pp. 45, 54).
Expert estimates can be much higher
than other country totals, often double or
triple other estimates, sometimes evenhigher. Expert estimates are importantand should be considered seriously, but
in our methodology, highly divergent
expert estimates are usually discarded
as outliers.

Analogous comparison
Another way to estimate civilian ownership is through comparison with similar
but better-understood countries. Surveybased estimates of unregistered weapons in one country, for instance, canserve as a useful basis for estimating
illicit firearm ownership in a country
where surveys are lacking, but which
has comparable firearms legislation,
and a similar ‘gun culture’ and per capita
gross domestic product.

Civilian-held Firearms Numbers

5Other indicators
Proxies
The use of substitute indicators or proxies
is an established and important technique for firearms estimation. For example, here appears to be a positive—albeit
weak—correlation between national
wealth, population, and gun ownership(Small Arms Survey, 2007, pp. 57–59).
Another proxy for gun ownership is the

proportion of suicides committed with
firearms (Ajdacic-Gross et al., 2010;
Alvazzi del Frate and Pavesi, 2014). Suchstatistical tools are limited by the culturaland social differences among the countries being compared and statistical problems like the reliability of these countries’suicide data. The firearm suicide proxy,
for instance, has been proved to be reliable in Western societies, but its utility
elsewhere is uncertain (Ajdacic-Gross etal., 2006). For these reasons proxies were

not used in the Survey’s global estimate
for 2017.

Seizure reports
Many countries routinely report the numberof firearms seized by customs authorities,
the police, and other law enforcement
agencies. This makes seizure reports anappealing data source, especially as awindow on illicit or unregistered firearms.
Unfortunately, seizure data is often not

Box 2 Craft guns complicate
the count
Craft guns represent a major sourceof uncertainty in estimating global
civilian firearms possession. The
term usually refers to guns madefrom improvised parts such as pipes
and scrap metal in small workshops,
typically unregistered and uncounted
by the authorities (Berman, 2011).
But it covers different things indifferent places. Craft guns, likeother categories of weapons such as
readily convertible air, replica, andblank-firing guns, may or may notappear in comprehensive country
firearms totals.
In many countries, craft guns arecostly, tailor-made hunting andsports shooting weapons. Morecommonly they are crude, like‘country-made’ guns in India (Ajitesh
and Pratihari, 2014). And they canbe technologically advanced, likethe Carlo sub-machine guns popular
in Palestine (Economist, 2016). In the
United States, they include individually produced firearms based on‘80 Percent’ receivers and otherparts acquired from manufacturers
for making semi-automatic rifles(Horwitz, 2014).
Whether craft guns are included incountry totals used by the Small
Arms Survey is often not clear. In
many countries and territories,
craft guns are definitely included
in polling and expert estimates,
although there is uncertainty about
coverage. In some countries, like
Mali, for example, few craft gun
producers are legally registered(UNREC, 2016, p. 31). Official US statistics cover only the formal market,
not guns made from ‘80 Percent’receivers (Horwitz, 2014), but public
surveys presumably capture them.
India has relatively imprecise estimates, but they do cover annual
production of roughly 2.5 million craft
guns (Karp, 2015, p. 63).
‘Dane guns’ (craft-produced muzzle loaders) confiscated from poachers and illegal hunters, Yankari Game
Reserve, Nigeria, March 2016. Source: Stefan Heunis/AFP Photo

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Briefing Paper June 2018

consistently reported and tends to vary
greatly across countries, making it easy to
misinterpret (UNODC, 2015, p. 5). While
seizure reports are revealing, they currently cannot be used for estimating total
civilian firearms. Research has not revealed
a reliable technique to extrapolate fromseizure reports to trends in total firearms
ownership or even just unregistered ownership (UNODC, 2015, p. 87). For thesereasons, seizure reports were also not usedin the Survey’s global estimate for 2017.

Analytical considerations
Increasing numbers
Factors that tend to propel levels of civilian firearms ownership include growing
supply due to production, and growing
demand from population and income
growth (Atwood, Glatz, and Muggah,2006). While there are a few exceptionalcountries where public gun ownership is
declining—Japan is the best understood—

in most of the world the total number ofcivilian firearms appears to be going up.
Documented annual inflation growth
rates vary greatly from country to country, with rates as high as 3.4 per cent forrifles in England and Wales and 4.16 percent for all firearms in the United States
in recent years (Home Office, 2015; ATF,
2017a; 2017b). The Small Arms Survey
assumes that countries have a growthrate of one per cent annually, unlesshigher rates can be substantiated.

Box 3 All firearms are not alikeCountry totals aim for comprehensiveness, but they usually lack detail. Very different
types of firearms are lumped together by macrostatistics such as those in this Briefing
Paper. For example, a country total might combine weapons with capabilities that varysignificantly, including single-shot craft guns and factory-made semi-automatic rifles.
Registration data and manufacturer reporting can be more nuanced, depending on thelaw. In Canada, for example, the federal government requires the registration of handguns, but not of long guns (Masters, 2016). But some Canadian provinces, like somestates in the United States, have their own registration requirements (RCMP, 2017). In
other countries, ownership patterns simplify the problem, particularly when one type ofgun is most common. As the Survey previously reported, ‘the vast majority of illicit smallarms in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia appear to be Kalashnikov-pattern assault rifles.
Other types of small arms are comparatively rare’ (Small Arms Survey, 2012, p. 313).
Where more detailed data is available, it can reveal important trends. In the United States,
it points to dramatic shifts in public gun-purchasing patterns in the past decade, as pistols
and semi-automatic rifles became increasingly dominant, influenced by the expiry of theFederal Assault Weapons Ban in 2004 and changing consumer preferences (see Figure 2).
According to data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF)—a manufacturer’s
advocacy organization—semi-automatic rifles accounted for a growing share of US rifle
sales since then, reaching 13 per cent of all US civilians’ new gun purchases in 2012, thelast year for which data is available. No less striking is the rising share of pistols, which,according to data from the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, out-sell revolvers
in the US domestic civilian market by four to one or more since 2012 (ATF, 2017b, pp. 1,
3, 5; NSSF, 2015, p. 5).
According to surveys commissioned by the NSSF, as of 2016, 42.3 per cent of US huntersand shooters reported owning at least one AR15 platform (M16-style) rifle. In the following
year, 24.8 per cent of surveyed US hunters and shooters who bought a firearm in July–
August 2017 reported purchasing at least one modern sporting rifle or semi-automaticassault weapon, such as an AR15- or Kalashnikov-style rifle (NSSF, 2018, pp. 201–2). In
2016, six per cent of US adults surveyed reported that they participated in target shooting with a modern sporting rifle or semi-automatic assault weapon, which is equal toapproximately 14 million people nationally (NSSF, 2018, pp. 136, 189).

Figure 2 Annual acquisition of new firearms in the United States, by type
Pistols

Revolvers

Rifles

Shotguns

Miscellaneous

Number of firearms purchased (millions)
5
4
3
2
1
0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year
Note: The ‘miscellaneous’ category includes black-powder firearms, sub-machine guns, pistol-grip
firearms (usually a type of pump-action shotgun), starter guns, and other kinds of firearms.
Source: ATF (2017b)

Civilian-held Firearms Numbers

7

Box 4 Computation methods for civilian firearms holdings
This Briefing Paper presents estimates from the Small Arms Survey’s Civilian Firearms
Holdings 2017 database (Small Arms Survey, 2018). The database estimates are calculated on the basis of the following sources (or mix of sources):(a) national firearms registration statistics;(b) general population surveys about firearm ownership (available for 56 countries/
territories);(c) experts’ estimates of civilian holdings; and,(d) where none of these was available, analogous comparisons based on estimates forcomparable countries.
The database further relies on the analysis of individual reports on civilian firearms ownership from multiple sources, including published official documents and research studies
on countries and regions, official responses to questionnaires sent out by the Small Arms
Survey, news reports, and private correspondence with experts.
Computation steps
The goal of this exercise was to produce estimates of civilian firearms ownership for 230
countries and territories. For 181 countries/territories, at least one of the sources indicatedas (a), (b), or (c) above was available. Forty-nine figures were estimated using analogous
comparison, mostly in the Caribbean, Central Asia, the Middle East, and sub-SaharanAfrica. The year 2017 was established as the reporting year.
The process of computation required going through all available sources for each country/
territory as follows:
1.

Where relevant national statistics were available, they were used to establish thenumber of registered firearms. If only the number of persons licensed to own a firearm was available, this number served as a minimum estimate for registered firearms,
with the assumption that each person with a licence owns at least one firearm.

2. If population surveys were available, a mean estimate of the number of firearms wascalculated, using the most recent reliable survey of households and individuals ineach country/territory. Each estimate was then adjusted for annual increase to makeresults comparable and aligned to the reporting year.
3. Expert estimates were analysed and mean estimates of the number of civilian firearms
in each country/territory were produced. Each estimate was then adjusted for annual
increase to the reporting year, making up for the difference between the year of theoriginal estimate and the reporting year. Highest and lowest expert estimates werediscarded if they were too extreme.
4. Survey- and expert-based mean estimates were averaged out for each country/territory,
if they were available.
5.

Attrition (known actions that would deflate numbers) since the reference year wasconsidered; that is, any known figures were deducted related to civilian disarmament,
firearms collection programmes, seizures, destruction, etc. from the mean estimate
derived from expert assessments and survey-based estimates.

6. In countries/territories where no information from sources (1), (2), or (3) was available,
firearms numbers were estimated using analogous rates from comparable countries
and territories where the research team, guided by available research and media
reporting, appraised whether analogous comparisons were plausible.
For most locations there were multiple sources generating a wide range of estimates. Afterdiscarding clear outliers, the approach described above averaged these estimates into asingle estimate.
This estimation system used several important assumptions. The most significant ofthese were the following:
We assumed an annual change in total civilian ownership, representing an increaseof at least one per cent per year, to be the same in each country/territory of the world.
This would represent the average balance of all losses and increases. Exceptions weapplied included countries with documented deflation that contradicted this assumption (like Japan) and countries with higher documented inflation (such as the UnitedStates since 2006), or countries with plausibly higher growth rates due, for example, to an ongoing conflict where we assumed above-average civilian armament istaking place.
Secondly, where no information was available about the number of firearms per owner,
it was assumed that an average owner possessed 1.5 firearms (this multiplier wasused in survey-based estimates, where no national figures for firearms-per-ownerrates were available, or could not be estimated from registration data).

8

Briefing Paper June 2018

A woman listens to instructions about her practice shooting for her concealed carry certification test, Illinois, United States, July 2017.
Source: Jim Young/AFP Photo

Civilian-held Firearms Numbers

9

Estimation will remain an
essential element of civilian
firearms data, but all estimates
must be used with respect for
their limits.”

data, all global and country estimates
must be used with respect for their limitations. Even the most useful estimates
must often trade precision for honesty
about data and methods, relying on procedures that consider alternatives andacknowledge the truths that lie between
the highs and lows (Kent, 1964). With
much of civilian ownership concealed or
hard to identify, gun ownership numbers
can only approximate reality or reveal only
part of it. They should therefore always be
used with caution.

Growth of total firearms numbers (forexample, see Table 1) is not the same as
growth rates of ownership per population(for example, see Table 2). If a country’s
population grows faster than its gun holdings, its ownership rate can decline evenas total holdings increase.

observer’s preferences, is always to be
avoided (Karp, 2013, p. 76). The mostreliable and verifiable insulation against
confirmation bias or data picking is toaverage as many independent estimatesas possible.
The procedures followed to reach theconclusions laid out in this Briefing Paper
are described in Box 4.

Notes

Conclusion

2

1

Decreasing numbers
Guns also can be destroyed, corrode
beyond repair, or become permanently
broken or disabled. The form of attrition
or wastage that is easiest to document
is formal disarmament and destruction
supervised by governments or international organizations. This can be significant for country totals and must be
taken into account when estimating
civilian ownership (Small Arms Survey,
2009, pp. 158–91). Many other forms of
attrition cannot be estimated directly,
although attempts have been madeusing assumed attrition rates.4 Most
problematically, weapons can be temporarily removed from circulation without
being destroyed. Firearms seized by thecustoms authorities or police, for example, may be destroyed, but might also
be returned to their owners or sold at
auctions. The most reliable method for
estimating the loss of firearms appears
to be surveying for comprehensive
levels of gun ownership, which indirectly
includes the effects of increasing andreducing numbers.

Data picking
A common fallacy in firearms estimation
is preference for one particular estimate
when several are available, typicallybecause it seems right or best. Thisconfirmation bias is often justified asconservative estimation, as a synonym
for cautious. In practice it can privilege
either low or high estimates, depending
entirely on individual preferences. Suchdata picking, typically confirming an

10

Briefing Paper June 2018

Much has been learned during the past
decade about the global distribution ofcivilian firearms. It is possible to say withgreater authority and accuracy how manyguns people have in each country. The
relative ranking of countries is knownwith greater certainty. It is clear that
global civilian holdings are growing,with much, but not all, of the increase
attributable to rising ownership in the
United States.
The greater willingness and capability of governments to share details about
civilian gun ownership in their respective
territories is a vital force in this rising tideof knowledge. But registration data remains
just part of the picture. With roughly 100
million civilian firearms reported as registered out of some 857 million believed
to exist, registration data accounts for
only some 12 per cent of the global total.
This gap reflects the unwillingness orinability of many governments to release
registration data, and the lack of information on countries and territories wherecomprehensive registration is not legallyrequired. Similarly, the most comprehensive surveys of civilian gun ownershipalso have their caveats, and they can behardest to find in many of the places
where armed violence is worst and they
are needed most. These problems makeestimation a natural and inevitable partof any effort to determine country or
global totals.
While estimations will remain an
essential element of civilian firearms

34Each of the three Small Arms Survey firearms data sets covers a different numberof states and territories, depending on
the unit of analysis and data availability.
Civilian data covers 230 states and autonomous territories. Law enforcement data
was available for 230 states and autonomous territories. Military firearms arepresented for 177 states with formal
military forces.
In most countries, civilian ownership ofsmall arms and light weapons is limited to
firearms, usually meaning ‘any portablebarreled weapon that expels, is designed
to expel or may be readily converted to
expel a shot, bullet or projectile by theaction of an explosive’ (UNGA, 2001,
art. 3(a)). This Briefing Paper, however,defines firearms in accordance with thelists of ‘small arms’ contained in the International Tracing Instrument (UNGA, 2005,
para. 4 (a)). Therefore, certain light weapons fitting the above definition of a firearm, such as heavy machine guns, are
not included in country totals for civilian
firearms. However, every country, andsometimes different data sources, may
use definitions of their own, reflecting
domestic laws, specific survey questions,and interpretations by experts, who arefree to use definitions of their own. Dueto these idiosyncratic national reporting
procedures and definitions, firearms thatare classified as light weapons under theInternational Tracing Instrument might be
included in some country totals.
In the United States, for example, civilian
ownership of machine guns is legal underClass 3 licences (Capps, 2014). Legal or
widespread civilian ownership of fully
automatic rifles is seen in a few othercountries, such as Afghanistan, Iraq,
Somalia, and Yemen (Root, 2013;
Small Arms Survey, 2012, p. 313).
In Switzerland, military reservists may
keep their assault rifles (Sturmgewehre),
but only if they have been converted tosemi-automatic fire (Bundesrat, 2018, art.
11.3). Some countries are becoming more
restrictive. In March 2018 the NorwegianParliament agreed to end the legal ownership of semi-automatic rifles in Norway(Ljung, 2018).
See, for example, Azrael et al. (2017).

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Civilian-held Firearms Numbers

11About the
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