A new climate change vulnerability assessment for
fisheries and aquaculture
Johann Bell1,2 and Tarûb Bahri3

Abstract
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has released a new global assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. This major report, published as FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture
Technical Paper No. 627, explains the science behind the expected effects of climate change on marine and inland capture
fisheries and aquaculture worldwide, and the implications for the millions of people who depend on the fisheries sector for
their livelihoods and food security. The FAO Technical Paper also presents practical approaches to adaptation to assist fisheries and aquaculture operations at all scales to reduce the risks posed by climate change, and harness opportunities. The
information is set in the context of poverty alleviation, and within existing policy commitments, such as United Nations
Agenda 2030 and the Paris Climate Agreement. The advice in the FAO Technical Paper on adaptations is also firmly
embedded in reality – it acknowledges the interactions within the sector, the relationships between fisheries and aquaculture and with other sectors, and the influence of other important drivers such as population growth and global demand
for fish. In this article, we highlight the vulnerability assessments made for industrial tuna fisheries and small-scale coastal
fisheries in the western and central Pacific Ocean, the relevance of this work to Pacific Island countries and territories, andto the ‘Regional roadmap for sustainable Pacific fisheries’ and the ‘New song for coastal fisheries – pathways to change’.
We also summarise the key messages from other chapters of the FAO Technical Paper relevant to the Pacific Islands region,
including the chapters on freshwater fisheries and aquaculture.

Introduction
In July 2018, the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO) published Fisheries andAquaculture Technical Paper No. 6274, entitled ‘Impactsof climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesisof current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options’(Barange et al. 2018). This important publication synthesises the latest knowledge on the impacts of climate changeon the fisheries and aquaculture sector worldwide, highlights the vulnerability of the millions of poor people who
depend on the sector for their livelihoods, and describes
the adaptations needed at all scales to ensure that fisheries and aquaculture continue to make important contributions to poverty alleviation and food security.
The FAO Technical Paper will be particularly useful to fisheries managers and scientists in the Pacific Islands region
because it updates the information in the book published by
the Pacific Community (SPC) in 2011 on ‘Vulnerability oftropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change’(Bell et al. 2011), and in the FAO report on ‘Priority adaptations to climate change for Pacific fisheries and aquaculture’

1
2
3
4

( Johnson et al. 2013). Chapter 14 of the FAO TechnicalPaper (Bell et al. 2018a) summarises the latest information
available on the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO), thevulnerability of these resources, and practical adaptations
for economies and communities.
Chapter 14 is expected to be of special interest to fisheries
agencies responsible for implementing the ‘Regional roadmap for sustainable Pacific fisheries’ (FFA and SPC 2015)and ‘A new song for coastal fisheries – pathways to change’(SPC 2015). It identifies how climate change could disrupt
these plans, and the adaptations needed to minimise the risks
posed by climate change and maximise the opportunities.
The adaptations to climate change recommended for inland
fisheries (Chapters 18, 19 and 26) and aquaculture (Chapters 20–22) in the FAO Technical Paper also have salient lessons for the management of freshwater fisheries and marine
and freshwater aquaculture in the Pacific Islands region.
In Part 1 of this article, we summarise the main findings
from Chapter 14 on the regional impacts of climate change

Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
Conservation International, 3011 Crystal Drive Suite 500, Arlington, Virginia 22202, USA
Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
http://www.fao.org/3/I9705EN/i9705en.pdf

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

on marine fisheries in the WCPO. In Part 2, we draw on text
from the 40-page summary of the FAO Technical Paper5(FAO 2018a) to outline several of the key messages for readers interested in the global perspective.

1 Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities
and adaptations for WCPO marine fisheriesThis latest assessment for the WCPO (Chapter 14) applies
an end-to-end, climate-to-fish-to-fisheries approach toevaluate the vulnerability of the region’s plans to secure andincrease the socioeconomic benefits from marine fisheries
for Pacific Island countries. After briefly describing the main
marine fisheries of the region (Section 14.1.1), and the strategic plans and management arrangements for these fisheries (Section 14.1.2), the chapter summarises the observed
and projected changes to the physical and chemical featuresof the WCPO, and how these changes are expected to alterfish habitats (Section 14.2).
The chapter then explains how the direct and indirect effectsof continued carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are likely toaffect the industrial tuna fisheries that underpin so many
economies across the region, and the small-scale fisheries
that provide coastal communities with food security andlivelihoods. These analyses are based on global and regionalmodelling approaches incorporating the representative concentration pathways for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions(see Part 2) used for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),or emission scenarios from the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4).
Below, we use portions of text extracted from Chapter 14 tosummarise the effects of climate change on the future production of the region’s marine fisheries, the socioeconomic
implications of climate-driven alterations in production,and the priority adaptations (readers interested in the fulldetails and supporting references should read Sections 14.3
and 14.4 of the FAO Technical Paper). This information ispresented firstly for industrial tuna fisheries (Section 14.3),
and then for small-scale, coastal fisheries (Section 14.4).

1.1 Effects of climate change on industrial tuna fisheries
Observed and projected effects on distribution andabundance of tuna
The modelling of how tuna in the WCPO are likely torespond to long-term climate change (Fig. 1) indicates that
there will be an eastward and poleward shift in tuna distribution, and reductions in total biomass, for both skipjack
and yellowfin tuna under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario.
These responses are driven mainly by changes in larval survival and spawning location. Decreases in the biomass of5

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these two species will occur in most of the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Pacific Island countries west of
170°E, and will increase in EEZs east of 170°E. Projected
percentage decreases by 2050 and 2100 relative to 2005
are particularly marked for Papua New Guinea (PNG), theFederated States of Micronesia, Nauru and Palau. However, for PNG, it is important to note that the modelling
does not yet take account of possible beneficial effects ofincreased nutrients of terrestrial origin from higher rainfall. Substantial percentage increases in biomass relative
to 2005 are projected for skipjack tuna in Vanuatu, New
Caledonia, Pitcairn Islands and French Polynesia, and foryellowfin tuna in French Polynesia.
The projections for bigeye tuna and South Pacific albacore
are somewhat different. For bigeye tuna, decreases in biomass are expected to occur in all EEZs (Fig. 1). For South
Pacific albacore, the distributions of larvae and juveniles are
expected to shift south towards the Tasman Sea after 2050.
Densities of early life stages are projected to decrease in
their core area (Coral Sea) by 2050, resulting in a stabilised
adult biomass approximately 30 percent lower than in 2000.
However, the north Tasman Sea could emerge as a new
spawning ground after 2080 (Fig. 1), reversing the downward trend in abundance.

Implications for economic development
The redistribution of skipjack and yellowfin tuna is
expected to result in lower catches across the prime fishing grounds by 2050, with knock-on effects on licencerevenues. The plans to increase employment based on
industrial fishing and processing in PNG and Solomon
Islands could also be affected. This employment risk istempered, however, by the fact that recent average tuna
catches in the EEZs and archipelagic waters of PNG and
Solomon Islands well exceed the capacity of existing andproposed fish-processing facilities. Nevertheless, changes
in licensing conditions may be needed to ensure that moreof the fish caught within the EEZs of these countries isdelivered to national canneries (see below). Other possible negative impacts on economic development may occur
from the eastward redistribution of bigeye tuna and thepoleward movement of South Pacific albacore. In bothcases, a greater proportion of longline fishing is eventually expected to occur outside the EEZs, reducing governments’ revenue from licence fees. The projected eastward
redistribution of skipjack and yellowfin tuna as a result ofclimate change could result in opportunities for PacificIsland countries and territories in the eastern WCPO
(e.g. French Polynesia, and in the subtropical countries of
Vanuatu and Fiji), to obtain increased economic benefits.
However, although modelling indicates that the percentage increases in catch could be substantial in these EEZs,
the scale of benefits is likely to be modest because presentday catches are low.

http://www.fao.org/3/CA0356EN/ca0356en.pdf

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Skipjack
2005

2050

2100

Yellowfin
2005

2050

2100

Bigeye
2005

2050

2100

South Pacific albacore
2005

2050

2100

Figure 1. Average historical (2005) distributions of skipjack, yellowfin and bigeye tuna and South Pacific albacore (in tonnes per
square kilometre) in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and projected changes in biomass of each species relative to 2005 under the
RCP8.5 emission scenario for 2050 and 2100, simulated using SEAPODYM. Isopleths in the projections for 2050 and 2100 represent
the relative percentage change in biomass caused by climate change. Source: based on modelling done for Chapter 14 of FAO
Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 627 by Patrick Lehodey and Inna Senina.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Consequences for fisheries management

Recommended adaptations

The modelling described above also indicates that an increasein fishing effort will exacerbate the overall decreases in the
production of tuna species projected to occur as a result ofclimate change. To minimise the possible negative effects ontuna catches, fishing effort will need to be constrained andfuture harvest strategies adjusted to account for alterations in
the distribution and abundance of tuna species. Other possible consequences include: 1) the need to transfer more management responsibility to the Western and Central PacificFisheries Commission (WCPFC) as a greater proportionof the catch is made in high seas areas; and 2) the eventual
consideration of Pan-Pacific tuna management through amerger of WCPFC and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna
Commission. The existing monitoring, control and surveillance of tuna catches by the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries
Agency (FFA), the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA)6
and WCPFC should help identify if and when such changes
in management would be appropriate. Because eastward
redistribution of tuna can be expected to increase the use ofdrifting fish aggregating devices (FADs) by purse-seine vessels, management will also need to ensure that the effects of
FAD fishing on associated species (e.g. sharks) and juvenile
bigeye tuna are mitigated effectively.

Priority adaptations to maintain the contributions of purseseine fishing to economic development are based aroundcontinuing to: 1) maintain licence revenue and distribute
it equitably among PNA members and other Pacific Island
countries and territories; 2) deliver the tuna required byexisting and proposed canneries in the region; and 3) finding ways to add more value to the abundant skipjack tuna.
These adaptations are summarised in Table 1. Two of the
key adaptations are already in place. The Vessel Day Scheme,
operated by the PNA office, allows licence revenues to beshared among its member countries regardless of the prevailing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, andadjusts the fishing days allocated to members as climatechange alters the distribution of tuna. The Interim Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union
enables PNG to source tuna for national canneries fromoutside its EEZ, guaranteeing sufficient tuna for processing
as the fish move eastward. If needed, other adaptations thatwould help maintain the supply of tuna for canneries include
reducing access for distant-water fishing nations (DWFNs)
to PNG’s EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels, andrequiring DWFNs operating within the EEZ to land fish at
local canneries. Finding ways to add more value to skipjack
tuna would allow countries to earn more from this resourcein the short-term, and help offset the consequences of lower
projected catches caused by climate change.

Vulnerability of tuna species, fisheries and economies
The four species of tropical tuna – albacore, bigeye, skipjack
and yellowfin – are expected to have relatively low vulnerability to the projected physical and chemical changes to the
WCPO, and to alterations in oceanic food webs, because
they can move to areas with their preferred conditions.
However, increased stratification of the water column due
to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) could makethe surface-dwelling skipjack and yellowfin tuna more vulnerable to capture. This assessment is based on higher catch
rates for yellowfin tuna in the Western Pacific Warm Poolduring El Niño events, when shoaling of the thermocline
contracts the vertical habitat for this species. Increased vulnerability to capture by purse-seine fishing, and projected
decreases in availability of these two species across muchof the region, underscore the need for effective management. Small national economies with a high dependenceon licence fees from purse-seine fleets (FFA 2016) are likely
to be vulnerable to these changes by 2050. It is possible,
however, that the plans to improve the value of tuna in the‘Regional roadmap for sustainable Pacific fisheries’ could
maintain existing levels of government revenue from licencefees even though catches decline. The economies of PNG
and Solomon Islands are expected to have low vulnerability
because tuna fishing and processing make relatively small
contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of these
relatively large economies.

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1.2 Effects of climate change on small-scale fisheries
Observed and projected effects on distribution andabundance of fish and invertebrates
Climate change and ocean acidification are projected tohave a range of substantial direct and indirect effects on
the distribution and abundance of demersal fish and invertebrates in the WCPO. The indirect effects will occur
through changes to coastal fish habitats (Section 14.2.2).
The main direct effects are summarised below.
Higher SST is expected to alter the metabolic rates,
growth, reproduction and survival of demersal fish andinvertebrates, resulting in changes in their abundance,
size and distribution. Alterations to the strength of ocean
currents are likely to affect the dispersal of larvae, thereby
reducing recruitment success in some locations andimproving success in others. Ocean acidification has been
demonstrated to affect the behaviour, auditory responses
and olfactory function of early life-history stages ofdemersal fish species. These changes are expected to alter
the homing and settlement success of juveniles and theirability to detect and avoid predators, with implications
for population replenishment.

The Parties to the Nauru Agreement are Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Solomon Islands
and Tuvalu; more than 90% of the tuna caught from the waters of Pacific Island countries and territories comes from the EEZs of PNA members.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Table 1. Examples of priority adaptations and supporting policies to assist Pacific Island countries and territories reduce thethreats posed by climate change to the contributions of industrial tuna fisheries to economic development, andcapitalise on the opportunities. These measures are classified as ‘win-win’ (W-W) adaptations, which address other driversof the sector in the short term and climate change in the long term, or ‘lose-win’ (L-W) adaptations, where benefits are
exceeded by costs in the short term but accrue under longer-term climate change.
Adaptation options

Supporting policies

88 Full implementation of the vessel day scheme (VDS) tocontrol fishing effort by the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (W-W).

99 Strengthen national capacity to administer the VDS.

88 Diversify sources of fish for canneries and maintain tradepreferences; for example, an Economic Partnership
Agreement with the European Union (W-W).
88 Identify ways to add more value to skipjack tuna (W-W).
88 Continued conservation and management measures
for all species of tuna to maintain stocks at healthy levels and make these valuable species more resilient toclimate change (W-W).
88 Energy efficiency programmes to assist fleets to copewith oil price rises minimise CO2 emissions, and reduce
costs of fishing farther afield as tuna move east (W-W).
88 Environmentally-friendly fishing operations (W-W).

99 Adjust national tuna management plans and marketing strategies to provide flexible arrangements to buy
and sell tuna.
99 Promote partnerships to process and market skipjack
tuna in new ways.
99 Include addressing the implications of climate change
in the management objectives of the WCPFC.
99 Apply national management measures to address climate change effects for subregional concentrations oftuna in archipelagic waters beyond WCPFC’s mandate.
99 Require all industrial tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve models for
projecting redistribution of tuna stocks during climatechange.

Source: Bell et al. 2018a.

Estimates of the combined direct and indirect effects of climate change and ocean acidification on the productivity of
demersal fish in the region vary from decreases of up to 20%
by 2050 and 20–50% by 2100 based on a high AR4 emissions scenario, to decreases exceeding 50% under RCP8.5
for AR5 by 2100 (Asch et al. 2018).
The projected changes to coastal fish habitats are also
expected to alter the composition of catches. For example,
herbivorous species are likely to be relatively more abundant
as coral cover declines and macroalgae increase.
Productivity of invertebrates is projected to decrease by
5% by 2050, and by 10% by 2100 under a high AR4 emissions scenario. In particular, lower aragonite saturation levels are expected to reduce calcification rates for gastropod
and bivalve molluscs and echinoderms, thereby reducing
their quality and size and making them more vulnerable
to predation.
The potential effects of climate change on coral reef fisheries are illustrated by the projections for coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), which are heavily fished in northeastern
Australia and elsewhere in the WCPO. The combined
effects of thermal stress on the physiology of these species
and the degradation of reef habitat are expected to threaten
the viability and sustainability of commercial fisheries by
2050 at low-latitude locations (even under RCP2.6). At
subtropical latitudes, fisheries for coral trout are expected to
become increasingly uneconomical towards 2100.

Implications for food security and livelihoods
The implications of climate change for the important rolethat fish plays in providing food security for Pacific Island
people have to be placed in the context of the other factors affecting the availability of fish. In many Pacific Island
countries and territories, population growth alone creates alarge gap between recommended fish consumption (35 kg/
person/year) and sustainable harvests from well-managed
coastal fisheries.
Based on the total area of coastal fish habitats and the distance of these habitats from population centres, PacificIsland countries and territories fall into three groups withrespect to their capacity to provide the fish needed for foodsecurity: 1) those with coastal fisheries expected to meet theincreased demand for fish; 2) those with sufficient coastal
habitat to produce the fish required, but where transportation of fish to urban centres will be difficult; and 3) thosewhere the total area of coastal fish habitats will be unable toproduce the fish required.
There are few implications of the projected decreases incoastal fish production arising from climate change forcountries and territories in Groups 1 and 2. Possible exceptions are those outside the equatorial zone, where increases
in ciguatera fish poisoning resulting from the degradation ofcoral reefs could result in localised shortfalls in fish supply.
In such circumstances, communities will need to rely moreheavily on catching tuna in nearshore waters.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

For countries and territories in Group 3, the projected
declines of up to 20% in coastal fisheries production by
2050 and up to 50% by 2100 are expected to increase thegap only marginally because the effects of human population growth on the availability of fish per capita are so profound (Table 2). The main implications centre on the needto provide better access to tuna to supply the fish requiredby growing populations, although developing fisheries forsmall pelagic fish and expanding pond aquaculture will also
be important in some locations (see below). Maximising thenumber of livelihoods that can be sustained from coastal
fisheries resources will involve progressively transferringsome fishing effort from demersal fish to tuna and small
pelagic fish species, and switching some of the remaining
demersal fishing effort from resource ‘losers’ (e.g. coraldependent fish species) to resource ‘winners’ (e.g. herbivorous fish species).

Consequences for fisheries management
The direct and indirect effects of climate change andocean acidification are expected to increase uncertainty inthe replenishment of coastal stocks. Increased uncertainty
will require changes to the community-based ecosystemapproach to fisheries management (CEAFM) and ‘primary
fisheries management’ approaches (Section 14.1.2) used by
Pacific Island countries and territories to keep coastal fisheries resources at sustainable levels. The reorientation of
CEAFM that is needed to assist communities with adapting to climate change involves: 1) informing all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, stocks and catches,and facilitating their participation in decision-making;2) supporting the transdisciplinary collaboration needed
to monitor the wider fisheries system for climate impacts,
and identify practical adaptations; and 3) providing theresources needed to implement climate-informed CEAFM.

The more conservative application of primary fisheries
management that is needed to address the increased uncertainty is illustrated in Figure 2. Examples of the types ofmanagement changes likely to be needed include revised
size limits to account for altered growth rates and maturity schedules, and ensuring that the herbivorous species
likely to be favoured by climate change are not overfished.
Healthy stocks of herbivores will be needed to ensure thatmacroalgae do not unduly inhibit the growth and survivalof remaining corals.

Vulnerability of fish species, fisheries andcommunities
The small-scale fisheries underpinning food and livelihoods
across the region have a moderate to high vulnerability to
climate change because: 1) increases in SST will progressively drive many target species to higher latitudes; 2) degradation of coral reefs is expected to reduce the productivityof those fish species able to remain on reefs; and 3) the
majority of the small-scale catch is derived from coral reefs.
In turn, many Pacific Island communities are highly vulnerable to decreases in productivity of demersal fish andinvertebrates because they have few other sources of animal protein. A participatory approach is needed to raiseawareness of the risks, and identify practical adaptations toprovide nutritious food for growing human populations.
The IPCC vulnerability framework and the Vulnerability
Assessment and Local Early Action Planning Tool developed by the US Coral Triangle Initiative have been incorporated into such an approach for communities ( Johnson
et al. 2016). This approach will be strengthened by assisting
communities with evaluating alternative sources of fish (e.g.
through development of freshwater pond aquaculture andincreasing access to tuna in nearshore waters).

Table 2. Projected gap between recommended fish consumption of 35 kg/person/year, and the estimated annual supply of fish
per capita from coastal fisheries in 2050 and 2100 for selected Pacific Island countries due to the effects of population
growth (P) and the combined effects of population growth and climate change (CC) under a high emissions scenario.

Estimatedsustainable
catch
(t)*

Population**

2050

2100

Total fish available percapita (kg)2050

Gap in fish needed per capita per year
(kg)
2050

2100

P

2100
CC

P

CC

Papua New
Guinea83,50013,271,000

21,125,000

6

4

29

29

31

32

Samoa

6,100

210,000

240,000

29

25

6

11

10

16

SolomonIslands

27,6001,181,000

1,969,000

23

14

12

15

21

24

Vanuatu

3,800

483,000

695,000

8

6

27

28

29

30

Estimates assume sustainable median fisheries production of 3 t/km2 of coral reef per year (but also include freshwater fisheries production for
Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, and reef habitat to depth of 100 m for Samoa).
** Estimates provided by the Pacific Community’s Statistics for Development Division.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Low

MediumHigh

CC

Benefits

Uncertainty

Many Pacific Island communities are highly vulnerable to decreases in productivity of demersal fish and invertebrates because
they have few other sources of animal protein. Going fishing, Kiribati, 2018. Image: Francisco Blaha, www.franciscoblaha.info

Cost
Figure 2. General relationship between potential benefits from fisheries for coastal demersal fish species and invertebrates (greenline), and uncertainty in information for management (dashed line), as functions of costs, for primary, secondary and tertiary
fisheries management; and the reduction in benefits under primary fisheries management as a result of the increased uncertainty
caused by climate change (CC). Source: Bell et al. 2011; Cochrane et al. 2011.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Recommended adaptations
The priority adaptations to maintain the contribution ofsmall-scale fisheries to food security and livelihoods ofcoastal communities involve finding ways to: 1) minimise
the gap between sustainable harvests from coral reefs andother coastal fish habitats and the quantities of fish recommended for good nutrition of growing human populations;and 2) fill the gap (Table 3). Adaptations to minimise the gap
centre on avoiding and reversing the degradation of coastal

fish habitats and maintaining healthy stocks of demersal fish
and invertebrates. Most of these adaptations are an integral
part of coastal zone management and sustainable fisheries
management (FAO 2003, 2015). Climate-informed, ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management provide
the most effective way forward. Adaptations to fill the gap
will need to focus largely on making it easier for small-scale
fishers to access the region’s rich tuna resources, developing
fisheries for small pelagic fish, expanding pond aquaculture,and improving supply chains to avoid waste.

Table 3. Examples of priority adaptations and supporting policies to assist Pacific Island countries and territories with reducing
the threats posed by climate change to the contributions of small-scale fisheries to food security and livelihoods ofcoastal communities, and capitalise on opportunities. These measures are classified as ‘win-win’ (W-W) adaptations, which
address other drivers of the sector in the short term and climate change in the long term, or ‘lose-win’ (L-W) adaptations,where benefits are exceeded by costs in the short term but accrue under longer-term climate change. Source: Bell et al.
2018 a, b.
Adaptation

Supporting policies

Adaptations to minimise the gap
88 Manage and restore vegetation in catchments (W-W)
88 Avoid (and reverse) degradation of coastal fish habitats(W-W)
88 Provide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats(L-W)
88 Reduce catches to help sustain production of coastal
demersal fish and invertebrates (L-W)

99 Improve governance for sustainable use and protection ofcoastal fish habitats
99 Strengthen fisheries legislation to apply community-based
management, founded on an ecosystem approach and primary fisheries management
99 Enhance national regulation of small-scale, commercial
fishing

88 Maximise the efficiency of spatial management (W-W)

99 Promote access to those groups of fish expected to increasein abundance

88 Diversify catches of coastal demersal fish (L-W)

99 Limit export of demersal fish
99 Develop ecotourism to relieve fishing pressure on demersal
fish stocks

Adaptations to fill the gap
88 Transfer coastal fishing effort from demersal fish to tunaand other large pelagic fish in nearshore waters (W-W)

99 Include nearshore FADs as part of the national infrastructure
for food security

88 Expand fisheries for small pelagic species (W-W)*

99 Transfer some access rights and revenues from industrial tuna
fisheries to small-scale fisheries

88 Extend the storage time of nearshore pelagic fish
catches (W-W)
88 Increase access to small tuna and bycatch offloaded byindustrial fleets during transshipping operations (W-W)
88 Expand aquaculture of Nile tilapia and milkfish (W-W)

99 Evaluate whether industrial fishing exclusion zones provide
adequate access to tuna for small-scale fishers
99 Apply targeted subsidy programs to support key adaptations
99 Limit tilapia farming to catchments with a shortage of fish andwhere tilapia are already established to reduce potential risks
to biodiversity* Small pelagic fish are expected to be favoured by climate change only where changes to currents and eddies deliver more nutrients to surface
waters.
Source: Bell et al. 2018 a,b.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

2 Key messages from FAO Fisheries andAquaculture Technical Paper 627
Importance of fisheries and aquaculture
Excluding aquatic plants, total global production from fisheries and aquaculture peaked at 171 million tonnes in 2016,
with 53% of this total coming from capture fisheries and
47% from aquaculture (FAO 2018b). Globally, the combined production from fisheries and aquaculture makes substantial contributions to the food security and livelihoods ofmillions of people. Average fish consumption worldwide is
now >20 kg/person/year and an estimated 200 million people are employed directly and indirectly in the fisheries andaquaculture sector (FAO 2018b). Livelihoods sustained byfisheries and aquaculture activities are especially important
to many poor communities in coastal, riverine, insular andinland regions.

Approach
The full Technical Paper uses an end-to-end approach toassess the vulnerability of marine and inland fisheries, andaquaculture to climate change. Information is presented on
the projected changes in atmospheric climate, the ocean, ecosystems supporting fisheries and aquaculture, the direct andindirect effects of these changes on fisheries and aquaculture
production systems, the implications for food security andlivelihoods, and practical tools for effective adaptation.

Observed and predicted changes in air temperature
The Earth’s average surface air temperature has increasedby more than 0.8°C since the middle of the 19th century,and is now warming at a rate of more than 0.1°C every
decade. Projected changes in surface air temperature by2100 vary, depending on a number of social and economic
assumptions (e.g. possible future trends in population
size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy use, land use patterns, technology, climate policy). Several of the possible

scenarios have been summarised into four representative
concentration pathways (RCPs) for GHG emissions in
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014). These four RCPs
are based on radiative forcings of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0 and+8.5 Watts/m2. For all RCP scenarios, except RCP2.6,
global average surface air temperature is likely to exceed
1.5°C by 2100 relative to the average for the 1850–1900
period, and by 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.

Observed and predicted changes in rainfall
The warming of the climate has significant implications forthe hydrological cycle. Observed changes in rainfall patterns
since 1900 vary across regions. However, modeling indicatesthat rainfall is very likely to increase in high latitudes andnear the equator, and decrease in the subtropics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events over land arealso likely to increase in the near term, although this trend
will not be apparent in all regions because of natural variability. For example, droughts are expected to be longer andmore frequent in California, the Mediterranean basin, andin existing arid zones.

Observed and predicted impacts to the ocean
The surface waters of the world’s oceans (0–700 m deep)
have warmed by an average of 0.7°C per century since 1900.
This has happened because the ocean absorbs heat from theatmosphere – more than 90% of the additional heat in theatmosphere generated between 1971 and 2010 has beentaken up by the ocean. Nevertheless, ocean temperature
trends vary among regions and have been most prominent
in the Northern Hemisphere, especially the North Atlantic.
Because the ocean absorbs >90% of atmospheric heat, SST
is expected to approximate the projected increases in surface air temperatures described above. Increases in SST haveknock-on effects on dissolved oxygen levels, which havedecreased in surface waters due to ocean warming, resulting in an expansion of tropical ‘oxygen minimum zones’ inrecent decades (Fig. 3).

Source: Breitburg et al., 2018

Figure 3. Coastal areas with oxygen deficiency (hypoxia – red dots) and ocean oxygen minimum zones at a
depth of 300 m (blue shading). Source: Breitburg et al. 2018.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Increases in SST will strengthen the stratification of the watercolumn, thus reducing the transfer of nutrient-rich waters to
the photic zone to support the primary productivity at thebase of the food web that underpins marine fisheries. There isalso concern that climate change could disrupt the patterns ofocean circulation that redistribute heat and freshwater acrossthe globe, thereby influencing local climates and the important areas of upwelling that drive the productivity of major
fisheries. Any changes to the strength, timing and geographical variability of the eastern boundary upwelling systems in
the Pacific and Atlantic oceans would have significant effects
on some of the world’s most productive fisheries.
Sea level is rising mainly due to ocean warming and themelting of land ice, and has risen globally by a mean of 0.19
m since 1900. The rate of sea-level rise varies across regions,however. For example, the rate in the western Pacific is threetimes the global average but the rate is null or negative in theeastern Pacific. Global average mean sea level is very likely
to rise by 0.5 to 1.2 m under RCP8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under
RCP4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP2.6.
Since the beginning of the industrial era, the pH of ocean
surface water has decreased by an average of 0.1 due to theabsorption of human-produced CO2. This corresponds toa 26% increase in ocean acidification, causing a decrease in
the saturated mineral forms of calcium carbonate (CaCO3)
in sea water needed by many marine species to build theirshells (e.g. molluscs) and skeletons (e.g. corals). Since 1970,
30% of the additional CO2 in the atmosphere has beenabsorbed by the ocean. Average global ocean pH is expected
to increase by 0.3–0.4 by 2100 under RCP8.5 (Fig. 4).

Climatic variability and climate changeInteractions between climatic variability (e.g. El Niño
Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and climate change can be
expected to occur. However, there is still debate about theextent to which ENSO is likely to be affected by climatechange. ENSO is the interaction between the atmosphereand ocean in the tropical Pacific that results in three- toseven-year periodic oscillations between particularly warmand cold temperatures for surface waters of the equatorial
Pacific, referred to as El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. The release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere
during El Niño events causes changes in global atmosphericcirculation, cyclone and hurricane patterns, monsoons,and heating and rainfall trends linked to droughts andfloods. ENSO has consequences for ecosystems and species that sustain fisheries, resulting in noticeable increases ordecreases in marine fish catches in given areas and a greater
frequency of harmful algal blooms (HABs). In many inland
ecosystems, the droughts caused by El Niño can result ininsufficient water for fisheries and aquaculture.

Climate change impacts on marine capture fisheries
The modelling done for the FAO Technical Paper(Chapter 4) indicates that the average total maximum catch
potential in the world’s EEZs is likely to decrease by approximately 3–5% by 2050 (relative to 2000) under RCP2.6, andby 7–12% under RCP8.5. The projected decrease does notchange much by 2100 under RCP2.6 but is expected toincrease 16–25% by 2100 under RCP8.5. However, theseprojections vary significantly across regions and the impacts
are expected to be much greater for some parts of the world.
In particular, the greatest decreases in catch potential are
likely to occur in the EEZs of countries in the tropics (Fig. 5).
In contrast, catch potential for the high-latitude regions is
projected to increase, or to decrease less than in the tropics.
These projections do not reflect potential changes that may
result from current catch levels or the outcomes of fisheries management measures that could potentially be applied
to reverse or counter these trends. Rather, they indicate
changes in the capacity of the oceans to produce fish in the
future compared to their current capacity.

Figure 4. Projected decrease in surface pH from 1850 to 2100 resulting from expected changes in ocean acidification
under RCP8.5. Source: Ciais et al. 2013.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

Figure 5. Projected changes in maximum catch potential (%) within national exclusive economic zones under RCP8.5
by 2050 (2046 to 2055), based on the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model. Source: FAO 2018a.

The various case studies on the implications of climatechange for marine capture fisheries from many regions of
the world (Chapters 5–17) complement the model results.
Collectively, they provide unequivocal evidence of the significant impacts that climate change has already had on
marine fisheries and reflect the variability and patchiness of
responses across the globe.

Climate change impacts on inland fisheriesOver 11 million tonnes of fish were caught by inland fisheries in 2015, equivalent to 12% of total production fromall capture fisheries. Inland fisheries catches provide highquality, affordable food and livelihoods for tens of millions
of people, including some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world.
Predictions of the impacts of climate change on inland
fisheries are difficult to make because they are often confounded with impacts from other sectors that competewith inland fisheries for the use of freshwater. The multiple
and high demands for water are expected to increase withhuman population growth and development. Unless urgent
remedial action is taken, the many other uses of freshwater
will have serious negative impacts on inland fisheries andthe benefits they provide. Unfortunately, in the competition
for this scarce resource, the valuable contributions of inland
fisheries are often unrecognised or under-valued.
Although there is high likelihod that changes in rainfall patterns and rising inland water temperatures, driven by theincreases in surface air temperatures, will lead to alterationsin the distribution and abundance of inland freshwater fisheries species, non-climate stressors are expected to be more
serious threats to inland fisheries than climate stressors in
the decades ahead.

Climate change impacts on aquaculture
Climate change can have direct and indirect, and short- andlong-term, impacts on both freshwater and marine aquaculture. Examples of short-term impacts include loss of production and infrastructure arising from extreme events suchas floods, and increased risk of diseases, parasites and HABs
due to warmer temperatures. Climate-driven changes in surface air temperature, rainfall and SST, ocean acidification,
incidence and extent of hypoxia, sea-level rise, availabilityof wild-caught ‘seed’ for grow-out, among others, will havelong-term impacts on aquaculture at scales ranging fromorganisms to farming systems to regions. Although there
are likely to be winners and losers at all scales, unfavourable
changes are likely to outweigh favourable ones, particularly
in developing countries.
Global vulnerability assessments carried out for marine,
brackish and freshwater aquaculture provide detailed resultsby country and present a number of options for adaptation and building resilience, in line with the ecosystemapproach to aquaculture. Ultimately, however, it is at thefarm level where the greatest needs to reduce vulnerability
can be expected to converge. Specific measures to reduce
vulnerability at this scale include improvement of farmmanagement and choice of farmed species, environmental
monitoring and spatial planning that takes climate-relatedrisks into account, and coordination of prevention and mitigation actions.
The projected reduction in renewable surface water andgroundwater resources in most of the dry and subtropical regions is likely to lead to greater competition between
aquaculture, agriculture and other sectors. Reducing thevulnerability of aquaculture to climate change will, therefore, require integration of these important activities into53

A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

holistic, multi-sectoral plans for watershed and coastal zone
management.

Impacts of climate-driven extreme events and disasters
A warmer climate can be expected to change the frequency,
intensity, timing, duration and location of extreme events
such as cyclones. Accordingly, existing approaches to damage and loss assessment from climate-related disasters infisheries and aquaculture need to be improved. There isan urgent need to invest in coherent and convergent disaster risk reduction and adaptation measures to anticipate
and reduce the impacts of extreme events affecting fisheries and aquaculture. The sector needs to shift from reactive
management after disasters have occurred to proactive risk
reduction of climate risks and hazards.

Hazards in food safety and aquatic animal health
Climate change is affecting the growth rates of marine pathogenic bacteria, the incidence of parasites and food-borne
viruses, and the dynamics of aquatic species as intermediate
and definitive hosts for pathogens and parasites. Copingwith these climate-driven risks to both the quality of foodproducts and animal health will require greater attention to
the monitoring of key environmental parameters and implementing effective early warning systems.
Collaboration among stakeholders, including those responsible for aquatic animal health, the marine environment
and food safety and public health, will be essential. This
also applies to best-practice biosecurity measures, such as
improved spatial planning, border controls and emergency
preparedness and risk communication. Aquaculture is particularly vulnerable to these hazards due to the need to rear
animals in high density environments.

Adaptations for fisheries and aquaculture
A key feature of the FAO Technical Paper is the synthesis ofmethods and tools for climate change adaptation in fisheries and aquaculture (Chapter 25). This chapter provides aportfolio of recommended adaptation tools and approaches
currently available for marine fisheries, inland fisheries andaquaculture. It also provides guidance for selecting, implementing and monitoring the effectiveness of adaptation
actions, and limiting maladaptative practices. These adaptation tools fall into three categories, those for: 1) institutions,
2) food security and livelihoods, and 3) risk reduction andmanagement for resilience. Adaptation should be implemented as an iterative process, equivalent in many respects
to adaptive management in fisheries (Fig. 6). The vulnerability assessment of fisheries and aquaculture systems, theinitial step in this iterative process, should start with determining clear objectives in consultation with key stakeholders. It should also be grounded in the best available scienceand traditional ecological knowledge.
To the greatest extent possible, the selected priority adaptations should address not only climate change but also
other drivers affecting the sector (i.e. they should be ‘noregret’ or ‘win-win’ adaptations). Priority adaptations
should also be planned and implemented with a soundunderstanding of the multi-faceted and interconnectedcomplexity of fisheries and aquaculture activities, and theinteractions between the sector and the wider natural andhuman environments. Failure to do this will increase therisks of inefficiency and maladaptation.

Climate change and poverty in fisheries and aquaculture
Many of the people who live in extreme poverty can befound in small-scale fishing and fish farming communities,

Scoping
Identify risks,vulnerabilities,
and objectives

Establish
decision-making
criteria

Implementation

Analysis
Identify
options

Implement
decision

Reviewand learn

Evaluate
tradeoffs
MonitorAssessrisk

Source: Jones et al. 2014

Figure 6. An iterative risk management framework that incorporates system feedback. Source: FAO 2018a.

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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

and are especially vulnerable to climate change because ofboth their geographic locations and their economic status.
Eradicating poverty and ensuring food security is an essential part of increasing the resilience of these communities,
as emphasised by the Paris Agreement, the United Nations
Agenda 2030, and other international instruments. Tackling climate change through a poverty lens is a key strategy
for moving people out of poverty, and for preventing othersfrom becoming poor. Bringing people out of poverty is alsoessential for making communities more capable of dealing
with the impacts of climate change. Achieving these important outcomes requires adaptation to climate change to be
multidimensional and multi-sectoral. Poor people impacted
by climate change should be provided with flexible practices
and opportunities to diversify their livelihoods, allowing
them to respond to the challenges of climate change. Active
support for adaptation is required at local, national, regional
levels of governance. A stronger emphasis should be placedon the contribution of fisheries and aquaculture to poverty
reduction and food security in nationally determined contributions of developing countries.

Measures and tools to reduce energy use and emissions
The estimated global emission of CO2 by all fishing vessels in2012 was 172.3 megatonnes, which was about 0.5% of total
global emissions that year. The aquaculture industry wasestimated to have emitted 385 megatonnes of CO2 in 2010.
Overall, however, the energy used for protein production
per unit mass of fish is comparable to chicken, but is muchless than that from other land-based systems for producing animal dietary protein, such as those for pork and beef.
Nevertheless, emission reductions of between 10% and 30%
could be attained for marine capture fisheries through theuse of more efficient engines and larger propellers on fishingvessels, improvements to vessel design, reducing the mean
speed of vessels, and the use of fishing gear that requires lessfuel. Opportunities to reduce GHG emissions in aquaculture include improved technologies to increase efficiency inthe use of inputs, greater reliance on energy from renewablesources, improved feed conversion rates, and switching fromfeeds based on fish to feeds made from crop-based ingredients that have a lower carbon footprint. The integration of
pond aquaculture with agriculture is also a potential option
for reducing fuel consumption and emissions.

3 Concluding remarks
Despite the practicality of the adaptations for industrial
tuna fisheries and small-scale fisheries described in Part 1,
uncertainty and gaps in knowledge remain about how best
to apply them. Staged actions are needed to: 1) identify
the research to be done; 2) create effective research partnerships; 3) overcome constraints to sharing knowledge
and uptake of technology; and 4) provide economies andcommunities with the resources needed for effective adaptation. Potential social barriers to the uptake of adaptations

recommended for small-scale fisheries (e.g. cultural norms
and gender issues that could limit broad-based community
participation) also need to be addressed.
Pacific Island countries and territories already recognise
the need to build capacity for an integrated approach toclimate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRM) ( Johnson et al. 2013). Combining DRM
and CCA is particularly pertinent in the Pacific Islands
region, where there is a large overlap between the mostcommon natural disasters (cyclones) and the impacts ofclimate change on the fisheries sector. The recent ‘Framework for resilient development in the Pacific: an integrated approach to address climate change and disasterrisk management’ provides strategic guidance for stakeholders about how to enhance resilience to climate change
and natural disasters.
Ultimately, one of the most important ways for PacificIsland countries and territories to improve the enabling
environment for maintaining the socioeconomic benefits of
their marine fisheries will be to prepare, communicate andmaintain their nationally determined contributions underthe 2015 Paris Agreement to adapt to the impacts of climatechange, and reduce national emissions.
The FAO Technical Paper described in Part 2 highlights
the variability and complexity of the fisheries and aquaculture sector, and the interactions between the sector and thewider environment. It also shows that the impacts of climatechange affect all aspects of the sector – from the underpinning resources through to human well-being – and thatefforts to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change
at all scales should be planned and implemented with fullconsideration of these complexities.
The onus is also on national and regional agencies to give
particular attention to practical adaptations for the mostvulnerable people. Otherwise, the vital contributions thatfisheries and aquaculture can make to the Sustainable
Development Goals related to poverty reduction and foodsecurity are likely to be compromised.
These various objectives will be advanced by including thefisheries and aquaculture sector in national climate change
policies and instruments, such as the nationally determined
contributions or national adaptation plans. Such initiatives
should help build the resilience of the ecosystems supporting the sector, and the socioeconomic benefits they provide,
and are particularly important for developing countries.
Least developed countries and small island developing states
can also take advantage of the assistance specifically available to them through climate finance schemes to implement
priority adaptations for fisheries and aquaculture.
The entire international community should be encouraged to address the remaining gaps in knowledge about thedirect and indirect effects of increased GHG emissions on
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A new climate change vulnerability assessment for fisheries and aquaculture

fisheries and aquaculture. Dismantling this uncertainty will
inform progressive improvements to effective adaptation of
the sector.

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56

Original text: English

SPC Fisheries
Newsletter#156
May–August
Pacific Community, Fisheries
Information
Section, BP
D5, -98848
Noumea2018
Cedex, New Caledonia
Telephone: +687 262000; Fax: +687 263818; spc@spc.int; http://www.spc.int