Tomorrow’s nuclear
leaders

Tokyo, 24 April 2013
JAIF Annual Conference

Agneta Rising
WNA Director General1

My Background: Industry
1980‐2012

Nuclear Safety and Environment

Nuclear Communication andGovernmental Appointments

Nuclear Business Development

Environmental Audits ofUranium MinesMy Background: International Organisations

Board Member

President

Last Chairman

First Chairman

Member of INSAG

President and Co‐founder

Member of Commission On Environment and EnergyNew WNA Strategic Direction

How the world experienced theFukushima nuclear accident – 1

The Fukushima nuclear accident caused a global media
storm. Initially coverage was divided between the natural
disaster and the plant. Soon however the emphasis wassolely on developments at the nuclear plant .
5

How the world experienced theFukushima nuclear accident – 2
Outside of Japan this led to a public backlash against nuclear
power just about everywhere – and protests in many countries
What was your view prior to Fukushima?

Demonstrations in Germany

What is your view now?

Poll: 47 countries Source NEI – WIN
Gallup international March‐April 20116

How I experienced it
As a radiation professional,
it was disappointing to see
so much unnecessary fear
caused – even by those
who should have known
better.
I realised that
fundamentally we had
failed to communicate
effectively on radiation
risk

How to scare a child7

Japan you’ve come so far –Radiation emissions down

Cold shutdown achieved

Unit 1 today

Unit 2

Unit 3

Unit 48

…but the road ahead is long

Still shut, 2
years on…
Opinion – what does it mean?

Who is returning?

The fundamental challenges
facing Japan are no longer
technical ones. They are socialand political in nature.
They require philosophy.
They require communication.

9Long‐term development based onexperience, realities and facts
Every country which has experienced a serious reactor accident istoday committed to nuclear power development

UK. Windscale fire
1957, Today:
16 reactors in op.
19GWe planned

USA. Three Mile Island 2
1979. Today
103 reactors in operation
3 under construction

Ukraine. Chernobyl 4
1986. Today
15 reactors in operation
2 under construction

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A lesson from Chernobyl:

Radiation doses
measuredin vivo
were much lower thandoses theoreticallyestimated.

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Natural radiation background dose andFukushima accident doses
annual dosemSv/year

NaturalBackgroundFew people
In few areas  ~100

VERY HIGH

Many people
In many areas Doses
Estimated
Theoretically~ 10

TYPICALLY HIGH

Majority of people
around the world  ~ 2.4

AVERAGE~1MINIMUM
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My personal experience
Chernobyl and Sweden
Radiation covering Europe (left) andpart of Sweden (right)

Eating of moose was banned13

Nuclear set to growth:

Nuclear new build around the world

WNA Reactor database
Reactors under construction
14Based on increasing public and policy
support globallyCountries representing over 50% of the world’s population still
support nuclear. Only one country has decided to phase‐out.
Existing nuclear countries which support newThinking about providing for Britain's future energy
nuclear (no phase‐out) : Argentina. Armenia, generation needs, which of the following do you
support the MOST? – YouGov poll Feb 2013
Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech

Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, India,Iran, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Pakistan,Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, SouthAfrica, south Korea, Spain, Sweden,Taiwan, Ukraine, United Kingdom, USANuclear

26%

Wind

18%

Tidal/Wave

18%

Solar

16%

Existing nuclear countries with moratoria/life
restriction: Switzerland, Belgium

Gas

5%

Coal

2%

Existing nuclear countries with Shutdown andphaseout: Germany

None

1%

Don't know

14%
15

Not only because it’s safe
Paul Scherrer Institut
1998, considering
1943 accidents withmore than 5 fatalities

The alternatives
to nuclear are
far more
dangerous –even including
accidents
Chiba refinery fire

Smog in Beijing
16But because it’s essential…
Climate change. A problem
which nuclear, with its low CO2,
is key to solving

Energy Security. Affects many,
but nuclear’s low fuel costs
make it a solution

Record arctic summer ice melt in2012. Source: NASA

India blackouts affect 650 million.
Source: Graphic news17

…and it’s growing in importance

IEA. World Energy Outlook: energy
demand growth in every scenario

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This not only Japan should know…
In the two years since the accident, with the majority of reactors
still shut, Japan has witnessed a surge in fossil fuel imports –especially LNG. This has been a large factor in turning Japan’s
trade balance negative
Prov.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Exports
Value
81,018,088
54,170,614
67,399,627
65,546,475
63,747,572

Percent
Change
‐3.5
‐33.1
24.4
‐2.7
‐2.7

Imports
Value
78,954,750
51,499,378
60,764,957
68,111,187
70,688,632

Percent
Change
8
‐34.8
18
12.1
3.8

BalanceValue
2,063,338
2,671,236
6,634,670‐2,564,712‐6,941,060

Percent
Change
‐80.9
29.5
148.4
‐
170.6

Japan, Ministry of Finance and Trade figures (millions of yen)

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Very few low carbon energy sources
around…
The increased relianceon fossil fuels has also
destroyed any hopeJapan had of meeting
its Kyoto protocol
objectives
Who wants to guess
what the GHG figures
for FY 2012 will be?
Japan Ministry of Environment
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Renewables can’t do it all – and thereis extensive experience from trying
Where are wind and solar?
NuclearOil

IEA key statistics

IEA country statistics ‐ Sweden

Despite over 20 years of expansion wind and solar power
make a tiny contribution to world energy requirements.
The best performing countries combine nuclear power andrenewables to reduce fossil fuel consumption

21

Put nuclear back into perspective
Nuclear power only makes sense in the context of our energy
choices. Risks must be put in perspective and benefits shown
We want easily accessible energy
at the push of a button:
1.affordable
2.reliable
3.environmental quality
We need all energy sources.
But there are not many energy
sources that meet all three
conditions.

Source ‐ Eurobarometer 2008
Agree/disagree: The use of nuclear
energy enables European countries
to diversify their energy sources

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Allow people the possibility to go backOrange zone ‐ similar levels exist
in nature, though in few areas

Source MEXT

But people still not permitted toreturn and stay – in any colour!

Radiation dose rates are half what they were one year ago.
There are no observed effects at most levels now indicatedCompare this to legal activities – e.g. eating meat or riding bikes

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Restoring trust in professionals
The nuclear industry and radiation experts must do their part.
But the media must avoid fearmongers. They cause real healthconsequences. Look at the pictures, who do you trust?

UNSCEAR on Chernobyl:•30 workers dead from radiation•Increase in thyroid cancers among children. Fewfatalities•No demonstrated increase in cancer in public
further to the thyroid cancer among children.
“However there were widespread psychologicalreactions to the accident, which were due to fearof the radiation, not to the actual radiation doses”“A new Greenpeace report hasrevealed that the full consequencesof the Chernobyl disaster could top
a quarter of a million cancer cases
and nearly 100,000 fatal cancers.” 24Neighbouring property to mysummer house25