S+3Eを実現するエネルギーミックスへの挑戦
Challenges of Energy Mix to Achieve S+3Es
山地憲治
Kenji YAMAJI(公財)地球環境産業技術研究機構(RITE)
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for theEarth
第46回原産年次大会
46th JAIF Annual Conference
2013年4月24日、ニッショーホール、東京@Nissho Hall, Tokyo April 24, 2013

1

Fundamental Objectives of Energy Policy in Japan
Damaged Items by Fukushima Disaster; (Targets in 2010 Strategic Energy Plan)

Energy Security(semi‐)domestic resources, upstream investment, reserve,
diversification, fuel cycle, diplomacy …
(energy independence ratio of 70% in2030)

Economics/Growthgreen innovation/growth, export of power plants, energy
service co. …
＋ review of power costs

3E(top‐class global market shares for energy‐relatedgoods/systems)

Environment

low carbon society, zero emission power (70% in 2030;
50% by nuclear), energy saving, CCS …
(energy related CO2 in2030 reduced by 30% from 1990level)+S
Safety (Trust?)

risk of low level radiation exposure (scientific uncertainty)
risk of Severe Accident (low probability, but highconsequence)risk of climate change ( scientific uncertainty, skepticism)2Power Generation Mix in 2030
Targets in current strategic energy plan
Renewables: 20%
Nuclear:50%

Fossil‐fired: 30%

Impossible after Fukushima
0, 15, 20‐25%? depending on the recovery of public trust
on nuclear safety

How to fill the gap of reduced nuclear power? (Both in kW and kWh balance)
1. Further energy savings: ambitious targets are incorporated in current strategic energy plan
→ behavioral change using ICT as well as efficiency improvements
2. More renewables: PV 53GW and wind power 10GW in current strategic energy plan →power system stability issue → smart grid?; more geothermal, more small hydro, morebiomass by FIT policy
3.Clean use of fossil fuels: notably natural gas, clean coal incl. CCS, international
deployments of Japanese efficient technologies
4. Power System Restructuring: trans‐boundary power plants mobilization → wide area
grid management; mobilization of demand‐side resources: cogeneration, distributed
3resources, ・・・Impact Scenario of Zero Nuclear Policy
Deterioration of Nuclear Experts

Zero Nuclear Policy

Stalemate of Spent Fuel Management
Nuclear PowerCapacity ↓Aomori Pref.（Reprocessing？）

Large‐scale PV and Wind
Early Decommissioning
Shortage in Spent Fuel Storage
CO2↑
Fossil Fuel
Capacity Factor of Thermal Power↓
Consumption↑
Pu Surplus
Fuel Price Increase
kW Shortage
Deterioration ofInvestment for Thermal
Non Proliferation
Electricity
Power↓
Electricity Price↑
Quality↓
Acceptance of HLW from
Unstable SupplyNegative Trade Balance Europe↓
Japan‐EU Relation↓
Migration ofCollapse of Economy
Industry
Japan‐US Relation↓
Uranium Price↓

Deterioration of Energy Security

Nuclear Power in Developing
Regions (China, ・・・）↑

International Relations↓

Nuclear Safety Risk？

4Integration of Energy Network across Energy Carriers+ Mobilization of Demand‐side+EV/PHEV
andHeatPump5Low Carbon Society(renewable energies ・・・)

Stability of Power System(smart grid, smart meter,smart energy network・・・)

Smart Community(ICT, internet, sensor network・・・)

Energy Saving by

Smart Home, Smart City
(HEMS, BEMS・・・)

behavioral change

Integrating Supply Side with Demand Side
(power grid and automobile integration・・・)
Resilient Energy System
Reform of Energy Systems

ICT Security(cyber‐terrorism, privacy protection・・・)

New Economic Growth (global standards, systems competitiveness・・・)

Energy-Information Integration + Smart Community
6Reconstruction of Energy Policy as well as Climate Response Strategy
・Keep Nuclear Option: enhanced safety measures, risk communicationof low level radiation exposure and severe accident・・・
・Further Energy Saving: behavior change using ICT as well as further
energy efficiency improvements・・・・Maximum Introduction of New Renewables: FIT, using theopportunities of restoration (biomass in debris, damaged land・・・),
smart grid to maintain power stability・・・
・Clean Use of Fossil Fuels: natural gas, clean coal（A‐USC、IGCC、CCS）、
carbon free H2(brown coal＋CCS), bilateral offset credits・・・
・Resilience of Energy System: strengthened power grid, gas pipeline,and liquid fuel supply chain, decentralized energy system with ICT tosecure local energy supply in emergency・・・
Common Key Direction: Mobilization of Demand‐side Resources 7

ご清聴ありがとうございました
Thank you for your attention

山地憲治(Kenji YAMAJI)
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth(RITE)

8