“Immigration” within Japan
Ryoichi Imai1

How to stop people moving• The government recognizes people’s moveacross regions as the largest obstacle toregional revitalization.
• Young people tend to move from local cities tomajor cities and then to Tokyo.
• The Tokyo urban area is still growing in
population, while the total population ofJapan is decreasing.
2

When do you move?
• Young people tend to move at two criticalpoints of their life.
– When they go to universities.
– When they go to their job locations• The government orders prefectures anduniversities (why?) to figure out their plans tostop young people moving to large urban
areas.
3

Municipalization of private universities• The traditional function of Japan’s national universities
is to recruit talented young people of regions, educate
and allocate them to jobs in large urban areas.
• Population decline makes private universities in regions
sustainable no longer.
• Prefectures and cites obtain the ownership of local
private universities and reboot them as municipaluniversities.
• Sometimes regional private universities request local
municipals to buy their ownership, otherwise theuniversities would close.
4Nagano University• The Shinshu University is a prestigious nationaluniversity, located in Nagano prefecture.
• However, its capacity is limited, and there are not somany private universities in the prefecture.
• The Nagano University, originally a private university
sponsored by local business, was municipalized by theUeda city in 2017.
• Local leaders now increasingly recognize theimportance of the availability of higher education
institutions for local young people.
• Today, there are more then 100 municipal universities
all over Japan.
5University Capacity• The university enrollment
capacity of the Nagano
prefecture is the lowest inJapan.
• More than 80% of high school
graduates seeking for higher
education go to otherprefectures (mainly to Tokyo).

http://www.nga.gr.jp/ikkrwebBrowse/material/files/group/2/03%20nagano.pdf
6Admission Rates for Higher Education
by Prefecture
Admission rates ofhigh school
graduates are highin urban area, andlow in rural area.

http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/chukyo/chukyo4/028/siryo/__icsFiles/afieldfile/200
7
9/05/08/1262971_6_1.pdf

Capacity of Colleges and Universitiesby Prefecture• Tokyo and Kyoto havehuge capacity of higher
education, relative tothe population of ageof 18.

http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/chukyo/chukyo4/028/siryo/__icsFiles/afieldfile/200
89/05/08/1262971_6_1.pdf

High school graduates of large urban area tend
to go to universities within the area

http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/chukyo/chukyo4/028/siryo/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2009/05
9/08/1262971_6_1.pdf

Tokyo Prefecture• In 2008, 100 young people graduate from highschools in Tokyo.
• 26 go to the labor market.
• 45 go to universities in Tokyo.
• 29 go to universities out of Tokyo.

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Fukuoka Prefecture• In 2008, 100 young people graduate from highschools in Fukuoka.
• 49 go to the labor market.
• 34 go to universities in Fukuoka.
• 17 go to universities out of Fukuoka.

11Regional Gap in higher education• Large urban area (Tokyo) has enough capacity ofhigher education, while rural area does not.
• If you live in urban area, you can go touniversities in the same area.
• If you live in rural area, you need to move alone
to urban area.
• It is very costly to live alone, separated from yourparents. Going to private universities is out ofyour choice due to your budget constraint.
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Commuting university from yourparents’ home
• The ratio of university students who commuteto universities from their parents’ home:– Private university: 60%– Municipal University: 40%– National University: 30%• http://www.garbagenews.net/archives/1989690.html• If you live in rural area and your parents arepoor, your chance for higher education is quitelimited.
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Average cost for universities• In Tokyo area, the average annual cost to go touniversity is– National university: 1.16m yen with / 2.03m yen
without parents.
– Municipal university: 1.16m yen with / 1.77m yen
without parents.
– Private university: 1.83m yen with / 2.61m yen
without parents.
• http://www.jasso.go.jp/about/statistics/gakusei_chosa/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2016/03/14/data-14_all.pdf
14Population Pyramids• In Nagano prefecture,
population drops at age
19-23, mainly because
young people move toTokyo for university
education.
• In Miyagi prefecture,
which has a large urban
area (Sendai), and many
universities, population
does not drop at age 1923, because young
people can go touniversities in the same
prefecture.
http://www.nga.gr.jp/ikkrwebBrowse/material/files/group/2/03%20nagano.pdf

15

University Graduation Rate
• Japan’s university
graduation rate is thehighest among OECD
countries, much higher
than of the USA.
• Parents expects that
their sons anddaughters will for suregraduate from theuniversities, once they
are admitted.

http://www.mext.go.jp/component/b_menu/shingi/giji/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2012/10/03/13264
58_3.pdf
16

Individual and Public Returns ofInvestment in Higher Education• OECD publishes their annual reports on theprivate and social costs and benefits of thetertiary education.
• The costs include direct costs (tuitions) andforgone earnings.
• The benefits include gross earnings benefits,
income tax and social security contribution
effects, and unemployment benefits.
• Then the net return to invest in tertiary educationis the total benefits minus the total costs.
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Private Returns for Men and Women
MENcostsbenefits

Net returns

Internal rateof return

France-69375

305

11%

Japan-115

3552398%

United States

-101

569

468

13%

OECD average

-60

313

252

13%

WOMEN

costs

benefits

Net returns

Internal rateof return

France-59

211

152

9%

Japan-116

144

283%

United States

-88

360

27211%

OECD average

-55

222

167

11%

Costs, benefits, and net returns are in USD converted using PPP. Source: OECD 201718

Public Returns for Men and Women
MEN

costs

benefits

Net returns

Internal rateof returnFrance-66

224

158

8%

Japan

-17

153

136

16%

United States

-73

368

294

12%

OECD average-54

208

154

10%

WOMEN

costs

benefits

Net returns

Internal rateof returnFrance-56

144

888%

Japan-17

145

128

21%

United States-68

177

1087%

OECD average-51

135

838%

Costs, benefits, and net returns are in USD converted using PPP. Source: OECD 2017

1918

Gap between Men and Women,
Private and Public• Private return is lower in Japan (8%) than inFrance (11%) or US (13%).
• Private return is lower for women (3%) thanfor men (8%) in Japan.
• Public return is higher in Japan (16%) than inFrance (8%) or US (12%).
• Public return is higher for women (21%) thanfor men (16%) in Japan.
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Discussion• In Japan, private return is lower than public
return, because colleges and universities areheavily financially-dependent on the tuition
revenues paid by the students’ parents.
• In Japan, public return is higher than in Europe orin US, because public support for tertiary
education is weak, while the rise in revenues oftax and social contribution is high.
– Taxes and social contributions are paid mainly bycollege and university graduates in Japan.
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Identify Economic Roles of Cities• We can characterize the economic role of each
designated city by exploring the Systems of
National Account (SNA).
• For each designated city, we can calculate– Public/private demand– Trade account– Income account22PrefectureandDesignatedCityPublicDemandTradeAccountIncomeAccountCurrent
Account

Tokyo
Prefecture1632-14

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CenterOsaka

1348-28

20

CenterNagoya1125-1425

CenterFukuoka

199-1

7

Weak
Center

Kyoto

1813

1

14

Weak
Center

Sapporo24-4

3-1

Regional

negative

positive

Saitama
Chiba
Yokohama

TypeSatellite

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Center, Satellite, Region• Positive trade account implies that the city sells
goods to the outside.
• Negative income account implies that the people
commute to the city to work.
• Positive trade and negative income accounts
suggest that the city plays a center role of theregion.
• Negative trade and positive income accounts
suggest that the city plays a satellite role of theregion.
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Characterizing Cities• Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya are the centers of theirregions. People commute and shop there.
• Fukuoka and Kyoto have a relatively weak role asa center.
• Sapporo should be a center, while it seems not,probably because Sapporo has a huge suburban
area within it, and not many people commutefrom the outside.
• Saitama, Chiba, and Yokohama are satellites.
People live there, commute to Tokyo, and shop atTokyo.
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