Energy Roadmap 2050

Peter FAROSS
Deputy Director-General for Nuclear Energy

DG ENER, European Commission
1Energy policy for Europe• Year 2020 objectives:
 increase energy efficiency
by 20%
 reduce CO2 emissions
by 20%
 increase the share of
renewable sources to 20%• 2030 framework for climate
and energy policies: what after 2020?
• Energy Roadmap 2050: decarbonisation
2

Policy Framework for 2030
March 2013: the Commission adopted a Green Paper
on "A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies"
The process has started with a public consultation(open until 2 July)
The Commission intends to table more concrete
proposals by the end of 2013
It will build on the experience and lessons learnt fromthe 2020 framework
CO2 reduction target may exceed 30%
3Energy Roadmap 2050:a basis fora long-term policy framework
Supported by scenario analyses.
.

European Council

EU objective for 2050 – GHG
emissions down to 80-95%
below 1990 levels
Looks forward to elaborationof a low-carbon 2050
strategy – a framework forlonger-term action in energy
and related sectors.
.
.

Aim of the Roadmap

Give more certainty togovernments and investors
Explore routes towards a
low-carbon energy system by2050 which improve
competitiveness and securityof supply
Basis for developing the2030 policy framework andconcrete milestones with MS,
EP and stakeholders
4Scenarios explore routes todecarbonisation of energy system
Currenttrends
scenarios

Decarbonisation
scenarios

..
..
..
.

Reference scenario (as of March 2010)
Current Policy Initiatives (as of April 2011) 40% GHG reduction by 2050
High Energy Efficiency
Diversified Supply Technologies
High RES
Delayed CCS
Low Nuclear

 80% GHG reduction5

EU-27: Reference scenarioGDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions
40 years back and ahead (1990 = 100)
300

GDP
250

200

Gross energy
consumption

150

100

CO2emissions

50

0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
6

Energy savings are crucial
Gross energy consumption: range in current
trend (REF/CPI) and decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe)
2000
1900
1800
1700

Range for current
trends scenarios

1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100

Range regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios

1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
7

Renewables move centre stage, but
all fuels can contribute in the long-run
Decarbonisation scenarios - fuel ranges (primary energy consumption in %)

2030

75%

50%

50%

25%

25%

0%

RES

Gas

Nuclear

2050

75%

Oil

Solid fuels

0%RES

Gas

Nuclear2005

Oil

Solid fuels8Electricity plays an increasing role
Share of electricity in current trend and decarbonisation
scenarios (in % of final energy demand)
40%

Range regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios

35%

30%

Range for current
trends scenarios

25%

20%

15%
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050
9Role of nuclear energy
depends on scenario

Source: European Commission

Share of nuclear in power generation (in %)Nuclear production will contribute more or less, depending on the scenario.
80% GHG reduction can also be achieved with a very low nuclear contribution.

10Role of Nuclear Energy
GHG reduction
target in 2050

Energy RM 2050 Scenarios Nuclear in electricity
generation in 2050
[eq. capacity
operating in GWe vs125 GWe today]

40%

Reference Scenario

26,4%[161 GWe]

40%

Current Policy Initiatives

20,6%[117 GWe]

80%

High Energy Efficiency

14,2%[79 GWe]80%

Diversified supplytechnologies

16,1%[102 GWe]

80%

High Renewables

3,6%[41 GWe]80%

Delayed CCS

19,2%[127 GWe]80%

Low Nuclear

2,5%[16 GWe]1111

What does 20% of nuclearelectricity imply?

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What does 20% of nuclear electricity imply?

13

What does 20% of nuclear electricity imply?
LTO Scenario

14Impact on Investments, Growth and Jobs
Long Term Operation (100 Units)
New Built (100 Units)
Several units built in parallelLong term operation(2015-2035)

New Built(2025-2045)

Investments

900 M€ per Unit

5 B€ per Unit

JobsIn addition 50,000 jobs
(LTO + ST upgrades)

In addition 250,000 jobs
(New Built)

900,000 (base)

Value added
In addition 5 B€/y70 B€/y (base)In addition 25 B€/y15

EU: External Fossil Fuel Bill(in bn € of 2008)

Decarbonisation
brings substantial
fuel bill savings in2050 with respect
to 2005 andReference/CPI

800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
500

Compared with CPI
the EU economy
could save
between 518 and550 bn € in 2050
throughdecarbonisation
under global
climate action
2005
REF

CPI2030
HEEEEDST

high RES2050delayed CCS

low Nuclear

Savings are largest
in the high RES
scenario
16

Import dependency under current
trends and decarbonisation (%)
60

CPI
55

low Nuclear
High
Energy Efficiency

50

45Div. Supply Techn.
40

delayed CCS
High
RES

35

30

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

17

Grid investment costs increase
Cumulative costs 2011-2050 in bn € (in ranges)
Transmission and distribution
in decarbonisation scenarios

Grid investment (currenttrends and decarbonisation)
2500

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500

00
Current trends

Decarbonisation

Transmission

Distribution18The Way Forward
2020 strategy (20-20-20) – precondition
No regret options: energy efficiency, renewable energy, moreand smarter infrastructure
Need for fully integrated, well-designed markets for gas andelectricity
Innovation for low-carbon solutions
Nuclear safety
Broader and coordinated approach(1) Develop milestones for 2030 in an iterative processwith Member States, European Parliament, stakeholders

(2) Launch a dialogue on the development of futureenergy systems/transformation
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