Roundtable

Ex-post Assessment of Transport Investments and Policy
Interventions(15-16 September 2014, OECD, Paris)

Permanent observatories as tools for ex-post
assessment: the French case study

Alain Bonnafous

Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports, Lyon

FRENCH EXPERIENCE WITH "LOTI AUDITS"- The ex-post evaluations of major transportation projects became
compulsory with passage of the “LOTI”(Loi d’Orientation sur les Transports Intérieurs of December 1982).
- The sponsoring authority or project owner must prepare an ex-anteevaluation and an ex-post assessment of any publicly financedproject as soon as the project cost exceeds €83 million.
- The Loti audit consists essentially of producing a critical analysis of
the forecasts and assessments made prior to the decision to proceedwith the project.
- The LOTI audit is published and gives rise to an official opinion froman independent reviewing authority. This opinion is also published .

Economic returns for the 7 main concessioned motorways

Higher-than-expected traffic flows

and Cost overruns

Economic and financial returns for high-speed rail lines

Higher-than-expected traffic flows

and Cost overruns

Some methodological lessons
There is a real problem with cost
control and excessive overruns,
particularly for LGV rolling stockand operating costs.

strengthen the risk
assessments by taking
cost uncertainties morethoroughly into account.

The traffic forecasting errors aremainly explained by:-faulty macroeconomic assumptions,in the two cases the data
-mistaken assumptions about the are missing for a proper
analysis and continued
competitive context,-errors in traffic modal distribution data collection would havebeen necessary.
resulting from faulty modelling-For direct and indirect effects alike, these ex-post
assessments have the greatest difficulty in reconstructing
the statistics or the facts needed to identify them.

The permanent observatories as methodological responseto the main difficulties
An investigation that could be conducted in real time so as to catch
information before it disappeared could be an effective response:- To the disappearance of data.
- To the loss of stakeholder memory(particularly for in depth investigations).
- More generally to fleeting phenomena.

THE NEW EXPERIENCE WITH THE LGV SEA- Given the scope of the project (overall cost of €7.8 billion)
and the expectations of the local governments co-financing
the project, there is a clause in the concession contract
obliging the concessionaire to establish and finance asocioeconomic observatory for the effects of the new line.
- This contractual provision thereby ensures permanent
financing for the observatory, which is to function for 10years after the line comes into service, i.e. until 2027.
- The fact that the observatory was put in place when theworks had barely begun helped to prevent any loss ofinformation on the "construction phase effects”.
- This implementation served to identify, early on, thepotential questions and expectations of some of the keyplayers.

The two main methodological challenges- The need to synthesize complex information into a limited
number of indicators, the relevance of which can pose a
problem in the long term.
- The fleeting nature of information, which can disappear if
it is not compiled promptly.

A synthesis example of a complex information

Return to Bordeaux at 18h42

Departure from Bordeaux at 8h18

Available time at destination (Paris), with a departureconstraint (after 8 a.m.) and a return constraint (before 7 p.m.)An exemple of the fleeting nature of information

Minimum fare for all Bordeaux-Paris trains, based on length oftime elapsed since reservation to departure date

MERCI