Shinkansen Investment before
and after JNR Reform

Institute of Transportation Economics in Japan
Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.

Outline of Presentation
1) Shinkansen Projects in JNR Era

2) Shinkansen Projects after JNR Reform3) Through-Train Operation in Japan

4) Investment & Performance ofShinkansen Lines
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Shinkansen Projects by JNR

Niigata

Morioka

Joetsu Shinkansen

Tohoku Shinkansen
OkayamaOmiya
UenoTokyo
Shin-Osaka

Tokaido Shinkansen

HakataSanyo Shinkansen
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

JNR Reform in April 1987
JR-Hokkaido

Shinkansen operation wasdivided into JR East, JR Centraland JR West
JR-East
JR-West

JR-Central
JR-Kyushu

JR-Shikoku

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Projects after JNR Reform (1)<Shinkansen Lines>
Completed by JNR reform (1987)
Completed since JNR reform
Under construction

SapporoPlanning stage

Shin-Aomori

Hokuriku
Shinkansen

Tohoku Shinkansen

NaganoMorioka

Tsuruga

Takasaki
Ueno
Tokyo

Takeo-Onsen(Shin-)OsakaHakata

Kyushu Shinkansen
NagasakiKagoshima-Chuo

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Projects after JNR Reform (2)<Conventional Line>
Mini-Shinkansen(completed)

Akita
ShinjoFukushima(Dedicated) High-speed train

Mini-Shinkansen train

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Line Length and Transport Volume(Transport Volume: million passenger-km)(Line Length: km)

90,0004,500

80,0004,000

70,0003,500

60,0003,000

50,0002,500

40,0002,000

30,0001,500

20,0001,000

10,00050001964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

0Total Operating Line Length

Total Transport Volume

Source: Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995), MLIT (2013)

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Construction of New Shinkansen Lines
1. Construction: Public Works<New Shinkansen Lines>
Completed since JNR reform

Lease Fee

Subsidies from Government

Under construction

paid by JR(Central Gov. : Local Gov. = 2:1)

Construction Cost
Hokuriku
Shinkansen

TohokuShinkansen

2. Operation: Vertical Separation
JR Companies
responsible for O&M

Lease

Lease
Fee

JRTT (Government Agency)
Kyushu Shinkansen

Owner of Infra. & Facilities

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Usage Fees
: Expected Revenue
Usage fees of new Shinkansen Lines: Expected Expensesb

The amount is calculated
based on “b-a”

aBenefits received as anoperator of the newShinkansen Line
Case without
Shinkansen Line

Case with a
Shinkansen Line(Calculation Period) 30 years old

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Through-Train Operation in Japan (1)Network of Railway A

Network of Railway B

Rolling Stock of Railway A

Rolling Stock of Railway B

Operation by Railway A

Revenue to Railway A

Operation by Railway B

Revenue to Railway B

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Through-Train Operation in Japan (2)Tokyo

HakataShin-Osaka

Kagoshima-Chuo
Through-train services

Through-train services
KyushuShinkansen

Sanyo Shinkansen

Tokaido Shinkansen

JR-Kyushu

JR-West

JR-Central

Terminal
StationBorderStationBorderStation

Terminal
Station

Clear Separation of Operational Responsibility
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Through-Train Operation in Japan (3)Timetable at Tokyo Station

3 minute train headway

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Transport Volume of the Lines(Unit: million passenger km)
50,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000

TokaidoSanyo

TohokuJoetsuHokuriku

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

0Kyushu

Source: MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2007; 2013a)

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Passenger Traffic Density (1)Passenger Traffic Density (passengers/day)= Transport Volume (Passenger km)/ (Operating Line Length × Operating Days)
Number of Passengers

Passenger
Traffic Density

Transport Volume (Passenger km）
A Sta.

B Sta.

C Sta.

D Sta.

Operating Line Length
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Passenger Traffic Density (2)Table: Traffic Density of Shinkansen Lines in 2011
(Unit: thousand passengers / day)No.

Name of Shinkansen Line

Traffic Density

１Tokaido

219.6

２

Sanyo

71.8

３

Tohoku50.8

４

Joetsu39.6

５Hokuriku

17.8

６Kyushu

17.3

Source: Calculation based on MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2013a)

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Passenger Traffic Density (3)Closer to Tokyo

Closer to Tokyo

100,000

180,000

90,000160,000

80,000140,000

70,000120,000

60,000100,000

50,00080,00040,00060,00030,00040,00020,00020,00010,00020022007

2012

Tohoku Shinkansen Line1987

19924) Takasaki-Nagano3)
EchigoYuzawa- Niigata2) Takasaki- EchigoYuzawa

01) Omiya- Takasaki

8) Hachinohe- Shin-Aomori

7) Morioka- Hachinohe

19976) Ichinoseki- Morioka

19925) Sendai- Ichinoseki4) Fukushima- Sendai

19873) Utsunomiya- Fukushima2) Omiya- Utsunomiya

1) Tokyo- Omiya

01997

20022007

2012

Joetsu and Hokuriku Shinkansen Line
Source: JR East (2013)

The section closer to Tokyo

1) Transport volume is large2) Ridership is increasing

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Shinkansen Commuters(Persons)
50,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000
5,000

1 98
91 99
01 99
11 99
21 99
31 99
41 99
51 99
61 99
71 99
81 99
92 00
02 00
12 00
22 00
32 00
40

KyushuHokuriku
JoetsuTohokuTokaido & Sanyo

Source: MLIT (2013)

The sale of Shinkansen commuter passes is increasing.
Shinkansen expanded the commutable districts around Metropolitan areas.
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Revenue from Shinkansen & Conventional Lines(Unit: billion yen)

(Unit: billion yen)

1200

14001000

1200100080080060060040040020020000JR East

JR Central1987

2011

JR WestJR East

JR Central
1987

JR West2011【1. Revenue from Shinkansen Lines】 【2 Revenue from Conventional Lines】
Source: JR East (2012), JR Central (2013a), JR West (2013)

Revenue from Shinkansen has increased largely.
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines(Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers
Shinkansen Share ofTransport Revenue *1

1987

2011

Shinkansen Share ofRolling Stock
Kilometers *2

2011

JR East

22%

28%

20%

JR Central

87%

91%

81%

JR West

42%

46%

37%

* 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue* 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers
Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013)

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines(Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers

Increasing

Shinkansen Share ofTransport Revenue *1

1987

Shinkansen Share ofRolling Stock
Kilometers *2

2011

JR East22%

28%

JR Central

87%

91%

JR West42%

46%

Shinkansen is a better revenue earner
per rolling stock kilometer

2011＞
＞
＞

20%
81%

37%

* 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue* 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers
Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013)

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Final Comment1) This report primarily discussed Shinkansen’seffects on operating companies.
2) Shinkansen operation has large impacts on thesocial and economic development.
Ex.) raising real estate value, easing highway congestion,

stimulating job creation, etc.

3) In order to evaluate the effectiveness of theproject, it is necessary to include these socialand economic benefits.
Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

References （Selected)
Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995) JNR Annual RailwayStatistic, Institute of Transportation Statistics

JR Central (2007) 20 Year History of JR Central JR Central

JR Central (2013a) Annual Report 2013, JR Central



JR East (2012) 2012-2013 Corporate Profile, JR East

JR East (2013) Home page of JR East, JR West (2013) JR Westin terms of Data 2013, JR West

Kurosaki, F. (2008) An Analysis of Vertical Separation ofRailways, ITS Thesis, University of Leeds

MLIT (2013) Railways in terms of the Figures, Institute forTransport Policy Studies

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Thank you for your attention

Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.