IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

EIA's Global Energy Outlook

ForThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
October 5, 2016 | Japan
By
Adam Sieminski, Administrator

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 2016
Reference case• World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to629 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48%
increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) accountfor more than half of the increase.
• The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered
energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half ofglobal delivered energy in 2040.
• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing
by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global
total in 2012 to 6% in 2040.
• Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy usein 2040.

Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 2016

2IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 2016
Reference case (continued)• Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in
the mid-term as China shifts from energy-intensive industries to services
and worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify. By 2030, natural gas
surpasses coal as the world’s second largest energy source.
• In 2012, coal provided 40% of the world’s total net electricity generation.
By 2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly
equal shares (28-29%) of world generation.
• With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to 36 billion
metric tons in 2020 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 2040, a 34%
increase.

Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 2016

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IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Global energy shares: Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus,
natural gas surpasses coal by 2030, and oil maintains its leading shareworld energy consumption
quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 2016

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IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC
producers increase through 2040
world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels
million barrels per day
60
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate

50
40
OPEC crude and lease condensate

30
20
Other liquids

1002000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
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October 5, 2016

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Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the nonOECD regions — especially Asia
world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Non-OECD Americas
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

20122020

Africa2040
OECD Americas
OECD Asia
OECD Europe
010203040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 2016

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Liquefaction capacity additions over the 2015-19 time period
will increase global capacity by over 30%
LNG capacity additionsbillion cubic feet per day
65432102015
Australia2016Colombia

2017

2018

2019

Indonesia

Malaysia

United States

Note: Capacity additions in 2015-19 include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate
capacity, not adjusted for ramp-up
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press
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October 5, 2016

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Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly thesame amount of global net electricity generation in 2040
world net electricity generation by source
trillion kilowatthours
4030

20

1002012Liquids2020
Coal2025
Natural gas

Hydropower2030

2035

Other renewables

2040
Nuclear

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 2016

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IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is
projected to continue to increase throughout the projection
coal consumption in the US, China, and India
quadrillion Btu
100
China

80

60

40India

United States

20
United States with CPP

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
Adam Sieminski, IEEJOctober 5, 20169IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Coal remains the world’s largest source of energy-related CO2emissions, but by 2040 its share declines to 38%
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
History

Projections

2012

Share oftotal

50
4038%

3043%

Coal26%2020%

Natural gas

36%

Liquid fuels

1001990

2000

2010

2020

36%

2030

2040

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
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October 5, 201610

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

U.S. Energy Outlook: key takeaways from AEO2016• Energy use per dollar of Gross Domestic Product declines through2040 allowing for economic growth without upward pressure on energy
consumption and related emissions.
• Electricity demand growth slows while non-power sector generation
increases, dampening the need for central power station generation.
• Market forces drive up oil prices throughout the projection and U.S.
production increases in response.
• Natural gas production increases despite relatively low and stable
natural gas prices.
• Technological improvements are key drivers of U.S. oil and gasproduction.

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October 5, 201611

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U.S. Energy Outlook: key takeaways from AEO2016(continued)• Net exports of liquefied natural gas range between 3.5 Tcfand
10.6 Tcfin 2040 depending on relative prices in foreign markets• EPA’s proposed medium and heavy-duty vehicle Phase 2standards would increase fuel economy, resulting in 18% lower
diesel consumption in 2040 compared with the Reference case
• EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) requires states to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions from existing fossil generators:– Details of the CPP implementation strategies selected by the states affect the overallgeneration mix, as well as consumer prices– CPP effects on coal production vary across regions

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October 5, 201612

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

U.S. Energy Outlook: key takeaways from AEO2016(continued)– CPP, along with renewable tax credit extension and lower natural gas prices,
contributes to a shift in the generation mix, with increases in generation fromnatural gas and renewables and reduced coal generation– Even if the CPP is not implemented, key factors combine to support a transition
from coal to natural gas as the predominant fuel for electric generation• Extending or expanding existing laws and regulations,
including efficiency policies for appliances and vehicles, theCPP, and EPA’s proposed Phase 2 standards for mediumand heavy-duty trucks results lower energy consumption andCO2 emissions than projected in the Reference case

Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 201613

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Near-term crude oil price scenario is lower in AEO2016
Brent crude oil spot price2015 dollars per barrel
History2015

Projections

250
High Oil Price
200

150
AEO2015 Reference100

AEO2016 Reference

50Low Oil Price
01990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
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October 5, 201614

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of gross domestic
product (GDP) growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use
U.S. primary energy consumption
quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 201615

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Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuelefficiency drives projected decline in oil imports
U.S. liquid fuels supply
million barrels per day

Note: “Other” includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 201616

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

U.S. natural gas production dominated by shale resources; alternativeprice and resource /technology assumptions could be quite different
U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feetbillion cubic feet per dayHistory

2015

60

U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feet

Projections
160
14050

Projections

60

High Oil and Gas Resource andTechnology

50High Oil Price

12040

2016 Reference

40
100

30
Shale gas andtight oil plays

2080
60

Low Oil Price2015 Reference30

Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology

20

40
10

Other lower 48
onshoreTight gas
Coalbed methane Alaska

Lower 48 offshore

01990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2002040

1002015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
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October 5, 201617

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Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between
domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices
U.S. natural gas imports and exports
trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 201618

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Both natural gas and renewable generation surpass coal by 2030 in
the Reference case, but only natural gas does so in the No CPP case
net electricity generation
billion kilowatthours
2015 AEO2016 Reference
2,500

No CPPProjections

Projections

History

2015

2,000
Coal
1,500
Natural gas
1,000
NuclearRenewables

500
Petroleum
0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2020

2030

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
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IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

U.S. net energy imports trend downward, reflecting increased oil and naturalgas production coupled with slowly growing or falling demand
U.S. net imports
quadrillion Btu
History

30

2015

Projections

Liquids
20

10Natural gas

0Coal-10
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
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October 5, 201620

IEEJ：November 2016 © IEEJ2016

For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Adam Sieminski, IEEJ
October 5, 201621
Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp