Global EV Outlook 2024
Elizabeth Connelly, PhD
22 May 2024

Page 1Electric car sales

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 2

The story of electric car growth continues

MillionQuarterly electric car sales by region
4.5
4.0
3.5

3.0
Rest of world

2.5

United States

2.0

Europe

1.5

China

1.0

0.5
0.0
Q1

Q2

Q32021Q4Q1Q2Q32022Q4Q1Q2Q32023Q4Q12024

Over the first quarter of 2024, electric cars sales grew by one-quarter relative to the same period in the previous year.
Sales were up in all major markets, although sales dropped in Europe in March.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 3

2024 is set to be another record year for electric car sales
MillionElectric car sales by region and global sales share
2040%
Rest of world

1530%

1020%

United States

Europe

China

510%

00%
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Global sales share(right axis)2024e

In 2023, 18% of cars sold were electric, led by China, Europe and the United States.
Growth is expected to continue – in China, around 45% of all cars sold in 2024 could be electric.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 4A new electric car industry is emerging
Share of global car markets by automaker headquarters, 2023

ChinaEurope
United States
Conventional cars
65 million

Electric carsJapan

14 million

Korea
Other

Chinese companies provide more than half of global electric car sales, compared with just 10% for conventional cars.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 5

Sales in emerging markets and developing economies are growing

Electric car sales

Electric car sales by carmaker headquarters and country, 2021-2023
100 000

25%

80 00020%60 000

15%
Sales share(right axis)

40 00010%

20 0005%0'21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23
India

Viet Nam

ThailandIndonesia

Brazil0%

MexicoElectric car sales are growing quickly across major EMDEs, supported by policy.
Local champions are emerging in India and Viet Nam, while Chinese carmakers expand elsewhere.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 6

Sales in emerging markets and developing economies are growing
Electric car sales by carmaker headquarters and country, 2021-2023
Electric car sales

100 000

80 000
Other carmakers

60 000Chinese carmakers
40 000
Domestic carmakers
20 0000'21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23 '21 '22 '23
India

Viet Nam

ThailandIndonesia

BrazilMexico

Electric car sales are growing quickly across major EMDEs, supported by policy.
Local champions are emerging in India and Viet Nam, while Chinese carmakers expand elsewhere.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 7

In China, electric cars are getting larger… and cheaper
Share of battery electric car sales in China
Electric car price
100%

Battery chemistryElectric car size
100%

100%
Pricier thanconventional car

80%
60%40%

Cheaper thanconventional car

20%

80%

SUV

80%60%

Large

60%

40%

MediumOther Li-ion

40%
LFP batteries
20%20%
Small

0%0%0%
2018

2023

20182023

20182023

In 2023, over 60% of electric cars sold in China were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent.
Strong competition in the growing market of electric SUVs and cheaper battery chemistries are bringing prices down.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 8

Second-hand electric car markets are growing

Thousand

Second-hand electric car sales in selected markets
800600
2021
2022

400

2023
2000ChinaEurope*United States

On aggregate, global second-hand electric car sales in the major EV markets
were roughly equal to new electric car sales in the United States in 2023.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

*Based on data from six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom

Page 9

Used vehicle flows may have important implications for EV adoption
Common trade flows for conventional used exports between advanced and emerging economies, 2020

United States
AfricaEuropeAsiaJapan

Central &South America
Rest ofthe world

Korea
African countries represent around 40% of used vehicle imports
according to the United Nations Environment Programme.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 10

Charging

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 11

Roll-out of public charging is critical to enable mass EV adoption
Electric light-duty vehicles per public charging point
40

NorwayUnited Kingdom

30

United States
20

10

China
Korea

02015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

In advanced economies, the stock of EVs has outpaced growth in public charging infrastructure.
China’s public charging eco-system is poised for further EV growth.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 12Outlook

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 13

The electric car fleet is set to grow quickly20

Oil displacement (mb/d)Electric car sales (million)

Electric car sales, stock share and oil displacement in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2023-2030

2030

1816
14
12
10

6

Two/three-wheelers
Buses

5Vans and trucks
4Cars

382

China

62023

4 United States
21

European Union

000%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%30%

35%

2030

Electric car stock share

By 2030, under current policy settings, electric cars represent more than 30% of the China’s car fleet
and around one-fifth of the car stock in the European Union and United States.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 14

Manufacturers could deliver government ambitions
Electric car sales shares compared to industry announcements, 2030
200%

150%

Announced Pledges Scenario

Range of carmaker targets

100%

Battery manufacturers

All announcements

50%

Existing & committed0%
ChinaEurope

United States

GlobalAutomaker targets and battery manufacturing plans are in line with 2030 government targets. Existing & committed
battery manufacturing projects are practically sufficient to reach NZE deployment needs across all of road transport.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 15

Lifecycle analysis

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 16

EVs already significantly outperform ICEs in terms of emissionst CO2-eq/vehicle

Global average medium-car lifecycle emissions by powertrain in STEPS, 2023

5040

30

20

100

ICEV

HEV

PHEV
2023

BEV

2023

2025

2027

2029
ICEV

Car production

Battery production

Tank-to-wheel

2031
HEV

Well-to-tank

2033
PHEV

2035

2037

BEV

Grid decarbonisation impact

EVs can pay back the additional emissions associated with battery production in around 2 years,
while grid decarbonisation over the vehicle lifetime boosts emissions savings by over 25%
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 17

Battery chemistry impacts lifecycle emissions

kg CO2-eq / kWh

Battery pack lifecycle emissions by chemistry in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2023-2035
1201008060

Recycling saving
Recycling process
OthersBattery manufacturing

40AM production

20Processing

0Mining- 20

LFP battery lifecycle emissions are about one-third lower than those for NMC811.
The decarbonization of different chemistries require focusing on different parts of the supply chain.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 18

Battery recycling capacity set to increase 3-fold by 2030

GWh

Expected battery recycling capacity by region based on current announcements and potential supply in APS, 2023-2030
2022.52023.52024.52025.52026.52027.52028.52029.52030.52 000
Rest of the world
1 500

United States

Europe
1 000

China
Total supply
EV supply

500

02023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Recycling capacity diversifies from today to 2023, with Chinese share decreasing from over 80% to 70%.
Recycling capacity could be 3 times higher than supply in 2030, but retired EV batteries grow rapidly in the 2030s.
IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 19

Recommendations

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 20

Key recommendations for policymakers

12Maintain and adapt support forelectric cars

3
Promote adoption in emerging
and developing economies

45Expand EV infrastructure andsmart grids

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Enable the heavy-duty
marketEnsure secure, resilient andsustainable EV supply chains

Page 21

IEA 2024. CC BY 4.0.

Page 22