Climate change and effective policy
Stop alarmism wasting trillions

Bjørn Lomborg

www.lomborg.com

Global Warming
Real and ManmadeGlobal Warming
Often exaggerated

WildfireBurned area/year, % of global land

Global fire, burned area 1900-2100
4.5% Global historical reconstruction
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
No climate policy
Satellite
2.0%
1.5%
Strong climate policy
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2013JG002532,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425718303705,
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020EF001786

Why do we get it so wrong on
Global Warming?
Miss adaptation

Deaths from Climate, 1920-2023
500,000

Death per year, average per decade450,000
400,000

Climate-related deaths(Floods, droughts, storms, wildfire)

350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000

100,000
50,000
0
1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020
International Disaster Database 2024

Climate not end-of-world
It is a problem

Better, slightly slower• Climate change doesn’t mean end-of-world• It means things get much better, slightly slower

Hunger deaths, 1990-2050
Below-5 malnutrition deaths, millions

76543
2
With climate change

1Without climate change

0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
GBD 2023, WHO 2014

Current climate policies
Unrealistic and unsustainable

Global share of renewable energy, 1800-2050
100%
90%

80%
70%
60%

50%
40%

IEA

30%

Time to100%:2153

2253
EIA

20%
10%

0%
1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

Lomborg 2020, International Energy Agency 2023, Biden’s Energy Information Administration 2023

How to do smart climate policy
Climate means costly damages
But climate policy also means costly damages

Warming impact, in % global GDP
5%Impact, % of global GDP

0%-5%Nordhaus best
estimate-10%-15%-20%0°C

2°C

4°C
6°C
Temperature increase

8°C

10°C

IPCC 2014, Nordhaus & Moffat 2017

Average person 4.5x as rich
90450%

Income per person, 2017 $PPP

80
70
60
50
4030
201002000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

UN SSPs, Nordhaus & Moffat 2017

Because of climate, average person 4.3x as rich
90
450%
434%

Income per person, 2017 $PPP

807060504030201002000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

UN SSPs, Nordhaus & Moffat 2017

Nordhaus: Climate cost
4.1°C No Policy
3.75°C3°C
2.5°C
2.15°C Lowest
050

100150200
250300
Climate damage, trillion 2010 Int'l US$350400

Nordhaus: Climate policy cost
4.1°C No Policy
3.75°C3°C
2.5°C
2.15°C Lowest
050

100150200
250300Realistic climate policy costs, trillion 2010 Int'l US$350400

Nordhaus: Climate and climate policy cost
4.1°C No Policy
3.75°C

Optimal3°C
2.5°C
Climatecost

2.15°C Lowest
0Realistic climate policy cost

50100150200250300
Realistic climate policy costs, trillion 2010 Int'l US$350

400

Net-Zero 2050: Costs outweight benefits
Annual Benefit
2020-2100

Annual Cost
2020-2100

Annual average, undiscounted, 2020-2100, 2023 US$
Climate Change Economics: Mendelsohn 2023, Tol 2023, Morris et al 2023

So, what should we do?
What is the smart ways to tackle climate?

Climate policies: what works —and what doesn’t
Benefit, dollar per dollar spent
$5$10

$0
EUclimate
20/20 climate
policyEU 20/20
policy$0.03

Agreement
Net Paris
Zero/1.5°C$0.17Smart, globaltax
Smart, global
CO₂CO₂tax
Green energyGreen energy innovation
innovation$2$11