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Didier Houssin
Director Sustainable Energy
Policy and Technology
18 October 2013

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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity
going unrealised
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012
New Policies Scenario
100%

Unrealised energy
efficiency potential

80%

Realised energy
efficiency potential

60%

40%
20%
Industry

TransportPowergeneration

Buildings

Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency
remains untapped in the period to 2035
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A big market with bigger potential
 USD300 billion market
 Already delivers substantial reduction
 Recent growth driven by policy and high energy

prices Bright national policy prospects
 Potential $458 billion / year of savings by 2020
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USD300Bn global EE market in 2011 Comparable to RE and fossil power generation investments
 BUT, investments in energy efficiency are still less than two-thirds
USD billionof the level of fossil fuel subsidies
700
600

500

EE stands alongsidesupply resources

400
300

Estimated
range ofUSD 147 to300 billion

200
1000

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Upstream oil Coal, oil and Renewable
Energyand gas * gas electricity electricity
efficiency
generation *** generation **Renewableenergysubsidies *Fossil fuelsubsidies *IEEJ : November 2013 All Right Reserved

IEA’s first fuel?

EJ•

Between 1974 and 2010, energy efficiency was the largest energyresource
Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency
in these IEA countries amounted to over 1 350 EJ (32 billion toe)
180
160
140

Hypothetical energy use had
there been no energy efficiency
improvements

120

3500
Avoided energy equal
to 65% of 2010 TFC

3000

100

2500

80

2000

60

1500

40
20

1000

Total final
Consumption (TFC)

500

00

Coal
Electricity
TFC© OECD/IEA 2013

4000Mtoe•

Oil
OtherGas
Avoided energy use

Long-term improvements in energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries

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In 2010 energy efficiency was the largest
resource Energy efficiency contributed 63 exajoules (EJ) (1400mtoe) of

avoided energy use in 2010
70160060

1400501200

Mtoe

EJ larger than the supply of oil (43 EJ), electricity or natural gas (22 EJ each)

1000

40

800

30600
20400

10200

00Oil

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ElectricityGas

Coal

Other

Avoidedenergy use

Contribution of energy efficiency compared to other energy resources
consumed in 2010 in 11 IEA countries

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Energy efficiency has been the key factor
restraining energy growth Final energy use increased by 0.5%/year between 1990 and 2010
 Efficiency effect is larger than the effect of structural changes inAverage annual change

restraining energy growth3%

2%1%0%-1%-2%
1990-2000
TFC© OECD/IEA 2013

2000-10
Activity effect

Structure effect

1990-2010
Efficiency effectChanges in TFC, decomposed into structure, activity and efficiency effects
for 15 IEA countries

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For 4 out of 15 countries energy efficiency was
the dominant factor reducing energy intensity
 Overall, just over half (54%) of the average annual reduction inAverage annual change

intensity was due to improved efficiency.
 46% of the reduction was due to changes in economic structure.

0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
Efficiency effect© OECD/IEA 2013

Structure effectChanges in aggregate intensities of 15 IEA countries, decomposed into
structure and efficiency effects, 1990-2010

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Country case studies
 Markets have distinctive characteristics related to country-specificsocio-economic conditions and resource endowments.
 Information provision and regulation have played a leading role instimulating the energy efficiency market
 standards and labelling providing access to energy assessments and financing
 energy efficiency obligations placed on energy suppliers

 Utility and energy service company (ESCO) schemes have also

driven growth, especially among large energy users.

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IEEJ : November 2013 All Right ReservedTechnology focus: the digital era is defining
future appliance EE markets
USD millions

 Appliances are increasingly becoming network-connected
30,00026,14910% of all
products will be‘smart’ within 6years

25,00020,00015,00019,942
14,597
9,773

10,000

6,266
5,000

040509984

2,150

3,772

Smart appliance global market value

 Network-connectivity and information communication technology

can enable energy efficiency BUT they are also rapidly driving up
energy demandNetwork standby could be 550TWh/yr if we don’t act

 Standards (Energy Star, Top Runner) are key© OECD/IEA 2013

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Japan: a Top Runner in Energy Efficiency
Target yearAdditional cost *(JPY billion)

Direct benefit **(JPY billion)

2005

3.4

38.1

2004

19.0

80.7

2010

41.5

107.6

Video tape recorder

2003

3.5

8.8

Air conditioner

2004

29.1

63.7

2008

2.1

2.4

2015

60.7

65.4

Warming toilet seat

2006

5.5

6.0

Television

2003

28.1

23.9

Personal computer

2005

48.0

17.9

Microwave

2008

5.1

1.5

246.0

416.0

Products
Lighting
Refrigerator
Gasoline vehicle (1regulation)

stElectric rice-cooker
Gasoline vehicle (2regulation)

Totalsnd-

Avoided energy
demand14 040 GWh(1.2 Mtoe)
29 749 GWh(2.6 Mtoe)
7 654 ML(6.6 Mtoe)
3 241 GWh
(0.28 Mtoe)
23 483 GWh(2 Mtoe)
888 GWh(0.08 Mtoe)
4 436 ML(3.9 Mtoe)
2 210 GWh
(0.19 Mtoe)
8 819 GWh
(0.76 Mtoe)
6 611 GWh
(0.57 Mtoe)
588 GWh(0.05 Mtoe)-

 Expected to deliver USD 3 bn in consumer benefits for lighting,vehicles and appliances
 Broaden scope to cover three-phase induction motors, LEDs, heatpumps and printers in 2015.
 What is the energy efficiency spillover to international markets
from Top Runner’s stimulation of efficient technologies?
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Korea: accelerating high efficiency appliances Korean ESCOs reached USD 330 million in 2011, an

increase of 63% from 2010. ESCO’s avoided 1.3 Mtoe in2011.
 The total number of high-efficiency products isincreasing very fast in Korea.
 Fuel-efficient vehicles are accelerating rapidly in Korea
from 30% to 100% compliance with 17 km/l by 2015.
Thousand units

500
450
400
350

300
250
200
150
1005002007
Level 5© OECD/IEA 2013

2008
Level 42009
Level 32010
Level 22011
Level 1IEEJ : November 2013 All Right Reserved

Prospects –looking forward Energy efficiency markets are expected to grow in themedium term : Significant growth expected in private investment
enabled by government policy rather than directpublic investment.
 End-use energy price is also a key driver, but analysis is limited by data availability andrelatively greater uncertainties in projecting future
pricing trends.
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EEMR2013: Table of Contents
 Executive Summary
 Introduction

 Part I: Framework Measuring the market for EE
 Understanding the market for EE
 What the numbers say: EE and changing energy use Technology Focus: appliances, lighting and ICT
 Part II: Country Review
 Australia; Canada; China; European Union; France;
Germany; India; Japan; Korea; Mexico; New Zealand;South Africa; South East Asian countries; UnitedKingdom; United States Part III: Selected Data
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EEMR2014
EEWP support an EEMR in 2014 with:

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A focus on Electricity Efficiency
Succinct country case studies–expand countrybase
Global Technology focus on Buildings orTransport
Improved data from countries

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Thank You

Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp© OECD/IEA 2013

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