Floods and Land Slides
Integrated Water Resources Management System

GEOSS
Asian Water Cycle Initiative(AWCI)
Toshio Koike
Earth Observation Data Integration and Fusion Research Initiative (EDITORIA)The University of Tokyo

WaterPollutionandEcosystem
Degradation

Drought and Water Scarcity
Climate Change Impacts
on Water Cycle

19 simulations by 5 models
58 simulations by 14 models

Observed rate of sea level riseand estimated contributions from different sources.

The Global Warming Changes the Water Cycle
Radiation - Convection Equilibrium(green-gas effect)
Sun Shine

infraredconvection

C02 increasedryheavyrainfalldryChanges in heavy precipitation frequencies >> Changes in precipitation totals

Observed trends for1951 to 2003 in thecontribution to total
annual precipitationfrom very wet days

Anomalies (%) ofthe global annual
time series(1961 to 1990)

Increase of Heavy Rainfall Events in USA

Increase of Heavy Rainfall Events in Germany

Source: Wetterstation Hohenpeißenberg

Spatial pattern of the monthly
Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.

Area
affectedby drought
increase.

PDSI: a prominent index of drought and measures the cumulative deficit in surface
land moisture by incorporating previous precipitation and estimates of moisturedrawn into the atmosphere into a hydrological accounting system.

9

Change in Annual Rainfall in Japan
MeanAnnualRainfall
Trend

MLIT HP
http://www.mlit.go.jp/tochimizushigen/Monsoon Rainfall
increase or decrease ?

Change in the mean annual range of precipitation:]1976 to 2003 minus 1948 to 1975 periods (mm per day).

Impacts of Co2 Increaseon the Water Cycle
Predicted by Models

Heavy Rainfall around Japan（CCSR-NIES-JAMSTEC）

2XCo2

CO2Bigger Annual Variationof the Summer Rainfall in India

Heavier Rainfall
in Smaller Area

Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for
extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

Tone River

Heavy
Rainfall from 2081-2100
台風性降雨の順序統計（予測計算期間）

350
300
250
3日間雨量(mm)Heavy Rainfall by Typhoons
in Tone River
from the Simulation by RCM20
超過確率

200
150
100

Return Period

500.9901

年最大３日降水量
Maximum(グンベル確率紙)
3 (ワイブルプロット)
day101

151

201
251
順位

301351401

HeavyRainfall from 1981-2000
台風性降雨の順序統計（再現計算期間）

Precipitation

0.95

51

3503003日間雨量(mm)2500.9200
150
100
5000.5151151201
251
順位301351401

Difference
台風性降雨の順序統計

3500.1101

3000.01
3日間雨量(mm)2500.001

1981-2000
2081-2100

歴史実験値（1981～2000年）

100年後計算値（2081～2100年）

200
150
100
500100

200

300

400

mm

0151

101151201
251
順位301351401

Adaptation to the Global Climate Change
Climate Change Monitoring:in-situ + satellite + re-analysis

Satellite Data
AMSR on ADEOS-II AMSR-E on AQUA

System Development
and Validation
AMSR-E
AMSR

6.925, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, (50.3), (52.8) and 89.0 GHzSSM/I on DMSP

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

F08
F10F11F13F14F1519.35, 22.235, 37.0 and 85.5 GHz

Validation of Soil Moisture

RMS Error： 2.55 [%]20

Soil Moisture [%]20

Soil Moisture (SSM/I) [%]Mean Absolute Error： 2.00 [%]

1510515105Obs.
SSM/I

0051015200
2003/06

2003/07

2003/08

2003/09

Soil Moisture (Obs.) [%]Satellite Data
AMSR on ADEOS-II AMSR-E on AQUAAMSR-E
AMSR

6.925, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, (50.3), (52.8) and 89.0 GHz

SSM/I on DMSP

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

F08F10F11F13F14F1519.35, 22.235, 37.0 and 85.5 GHzLong Data Set Generation and Analysis

5Precipitation
Soil Moisture4Pr 3-Yr MA
SM 3-Yr MA

14123

1028

160

4

Soil Moisture (SSM/I) [%]Precipitation (GPCP) [mm/day]Long Term Application of 2.5 x 2.5 Degrees Area
including Validation Sites (JJA Average)

2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997

1996
1995
1994
1993

1992
1991
1990
1989
1988

Variable Trend of Soil Moisture (JJA, 1988-2006)

Preliminary Design for Multi-scaleLand Impact Research by of L-A Coupled DAS
 Regional-scale approach by L-A DAS without CMDAS Extent: 40ºE - 160ºE and 0ºN - 60ºN
 Grid size: 25 km → nx = 355, ny = 223, nz = 35

 Meso-scale “mobile” approach by L-A DAS with CMDAS Point-scale by the CEOP Reference Sites Network +Adaptation to the Global Climate Change
Climate Change Monitoring:in-situ + satellite + re-analysis

Operation Optimization by Making Maximum Use of Prediction:
down-scaling and optimization schemesGlobal Data to Local Information

General Circulation Model

Data
Assimilation

DataAssimilation

Improved prediction
Satellite data
Regional/Meso Model

Improved
InitialCondition

Evacuation
Instruction
In-situ data
Centralized Data System

3000

Optimized rules
2500

Outflow eq. inflow

3discharge [m /s]

Outflow eq. 0
2000

FloodPeakReduction

1500
1000

DHM

500
07/8.1z7/9.1z7/10.1z

7/11.1z

2002

7/12.1z

SocioSocio-Economic Data

Improved
Prediction

Dam Operation Optimization System by Using
Rainfall Forecasting
Error Forecast

Short-term
Weather forecast Output

Spatially distributed dataObserved rainfall
Optimization of dam network

Coupled DHM & Dam Operation

Potential
OperationalRule&Weighting

Flood Peak Reduction
Effect Water UseMinimization
schemeIntegrated dam network
release schedule

Adaptation to the Global Climate Change
Climate Change Monitoring:in-situ + satellite + re-analysis

Operation Optimization by Making Maximum Use of Prediction:
down-scaling and optimization schemes
Consensus on for Land-use and Water Resources Management:
decision making support

Consensus Building Cycle
for Climate Change Adaptation© GEO Secretariat

Consensus Building Cycle
for Climate Change Adaptation

Consensus Building Cyclefor Climate Change Adaptation

Difference

台風性降雨の順序統計

350
300

3日間雨量(mm)250

ontology

200
150
100
500151101151

201251
順位301351

401

Inundation prediction

Land-use scenario

River Management data

Satellite

Support of data interoperability

Ontology ofdictionary

Ontology of
Geographic information

GIS/Basin Info.

Water Resource
Management

Satellite Data
Assimilation

Numerical Climate
Prediction Model

Reference Site Data

Distributed
Hydrological Model

Heavy Rainfall
Prediction

Operation
Optimization

Flood Prediction

Flood/Inundations→Evacuation
Instruction