REvIEWS
Climate change, tropical fisheries andprospects for sustainable development
Vicky W. Y. Lam 1 ✉, Edward H. Allison 2,3, Johann D. Bell4,5, Jessica Blythe6,William W. L. Cheung1, Thomas L. Frölicher7,8, Maria A. Gasalla9 and U. Rashid Sumaila1,10

Abstract | Tropical fisheries substantially contribute to the well-being of societies in both thetropics and the extratropics, the latter through ‘telecoupling’ — linkages between distanthuman–natural systems. Tropical marine habitats and fish stocks, however, are vulnerable to thephysical and biogeochemical oceanic changes associated with rising greenhouse gases. Thesechanges to fish stocks, and subsequent impacts on fish production, have substantial implications
for the UN Sustainable Development Goals. In this Review, we synthesize the effects of climatechange on tropical marine fisheries, highlighting the socio-economic impacts to both tropicaland extratropical nations, and discuss potential adaptation measures. Driven by ocean warming,
acidification, deoxygenation and sea-level rise, the maximum catch potential of tropical fishstocks in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the2050s under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, relative to the 2000s. Climate-driven reductions infisheries production and alterations in fish-species composition will subsequently increase thevulnerability of tropical countries with limited adaptive capacity. Thus, given the billions of people
dependent on tropical marine fisheries in some capacity, there is a clear need to account for theeffects of climate change on these resources and identify practical adaptations when building
climate-resilient sustainable-development pathways.
Landed value
The value of marine fish
catches when removed
from vessels in domestic or
foreign ports.

Exclusive economic zones(EEZs). A 200-nautical-mile
region from a nation’s coast
over which a country has thesovereign right to explore andexploit, conserve and manage
living and non-living resourcesin the water column and on
the seafloor, as prescribedby the 1982 United Nations
Convention on the Law of
the Sea.

✉e-mail: v.lam@oceans.ubc.ca
https://doi.org/10.1038/
s43017-020-0071-9

Marine fisheries contribute substantially to the wellbeing of people and society, particularly in the tropics,
where coastal communities depend on fisheries forfood security, livelihoods, economic development andculture1–3. About 1.3 billion people live in tropical coastal
areas, many of which rely on fisheries for food4–6. Indeed,fish is of major nutritional importance for both coastal
and urban communities in many small island developing states (SIDS), contributing 50–90% of dietary animal protein in Pacific Island countries and territories(PICTs)7, compared with 50% in West Africa8,9 and
37% in Southeast Asia10. Communities in these regions
are further highly dependent on wild-caught fish formicronutrients, such as zinc, iron and omega-3 fatty
acids2,8, to avoid the ‘hidden hunger’ that results frommicronutrient malnutrition9.
Tropical marine fisheries also make a significant
contribution to the global fish catch. Between 2007 and2016, for example, ~50% of the annual global fish catch(worth an average of US$96 billion) was derived fromtropical marine fisheries11. Such fisheries also underpin the economies of many SIDS10,12. For instance, thelanded value of the four main tuna species caught in
the western and central Pacific Ocean was US$6.0 billion
in 2018 (ref.13). Moreover, tuna-fishing license fees paid

Nature Reviews | Earth & Environment

mainly by the distant-water-fishing nations to operate
in the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of several PICTs
provide 30–90% of all (non-aid) government revenue14.
It is not only large-scale industrial fisheries that areimportant, however. Small-scale fisheries contribute~29% (US$31 billion) of the total landed value of fish in
the tropics11 and involve ~90% of the estimated 216 ± 6million people15 employed in marine fisheries12. Thus,in regions where employment opportunities are limited,industrial-scale and small-scale tropical fisheries provide numerous opportunities for coastal communities
to earn income through harvesting and post-harvest
operations15–18.
Tropical marine fisheries also provide benefits forpeople in extratropical societies through ‘telecoupling’(ref.19) — that is, environmental and socio-economic
interactions between two or more linked areas overdistance20 (Fig. 1). Telecoupling interactions between
tropical fisheries and elsewhere include distant-water
fishing, the international seafood supply chain, transboundary fisheries resources and their governance. Anychanges in the tropics, therefore, have the potential topropagate globally.
Indeed, the livelihoods dependent on tropical fisheries are increasingly threatened by multiple

Reviews
Key points• Tropical oceans will be where many of the first anthropogenic signals in physical andbiogeochemical variables will exceed natural variability, with resulting impacts onsocioecological systems.
• Maximum catch potential in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to
decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under continued high greenhouse gas emissions.
• Climate change impacts on tropical fisheries will affect sustainable development of both
local economies and communities, and extratropical regions through ‘telecoupling’ ofhuman–natural systems such as seafood trade and distant-water fishing.
• The key impacts for developing tropical nations will be reduced capacity to achieve
the UN Sustainable Development Goals related to food security (SDG2), poverty
alleviation (SDG1) and economic growth (SDG8).
• Effective and practical adaptation solutions for both small-scale and industrial
fisheries, built on the involvement of all appropriate stakeholders and supporting
policies, are needed to sustain fisheries productivity in the tropics.
• Many substantial predicted biological and socio-economic impacts on tropicalfisheries would be prevented if greenhouse gas-mitigation actions keep global
atmospheric warming below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.

RCP2.6Strong CO2 emission mitigation
results in falling greenhousegas concentrations and total
radiative forcing of 2.6 Wm−2
by 2100 (relative to 1750),
leading to global increases inmean surface air temperatureof 1.3–1.9 °C.

RCP8.5
No CO2 mitigation leads tototal radiative forcing of
8.5 Wm−2 by 2100 (relative to1750), increasing global meansurface air temperature by
4.0–6.1 °C, an outcome
resembling the A1F1, A2
and A1B scenarios included
in previous Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Changereports.

factors: overfishing21,22, habitat degradation23, pollution24,
sedimentation25,26, invasive species27, as well as various physical and biogeochemical responses to climatechange, including warming, sea-level rise, deoxygenation, acidification and altered nutrient concentrations.
These latter CO2-driven changes to the ocean — which
are expected to increase in the coming decades —affect the physiology, behaviour and interactions ofboth coastal and oceanic tropical marine fish species,
leading to changes in their spatial distribution andabundance28,29. The very high vulnerability of tropicalmarine fisheries to climate change30 could, therefore,
undermine efforts to build sustainable development
pathways for societies that depend strongly on the benefits from these fisheries, both within and outside of thetropics31,32. Thus, there is an urgent need to comprehensively understand the risks of climate change to tropicalfisheries to better inform adaptation measures.
In this Review, we consider the effects of climatechange on tropical marine fisheries and discuss how
these changes affect the use of fish in extratropicalregions. The climate adaptation and mitigation measuresmost needed for tropical marine fisheries are described,
highlighting options that could both support effective
action and reduce the risk of adverse consequences on

author addresses
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
BC, Canada.
2
Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
3
WorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia.
4Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA.
5
Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong,
Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
6
Environmental Sustainability Research Centre, Brock University, St. Catharines,
ON, Canada.
7
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
8
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
9
Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory, Oceanographic Institute, University of São Paulo,São Paulo, Brazil.
10
School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
BC, Canada.
1

the tropical marine fisheries sector and their dependent
human communities. The implications of climate change
for sustainable development goals are also addressed.
Throughout this Review, the tropical regions are definedas those between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropicof Capricorn.

Climate impacts on tropical fisheries
Climate change threatens tropical marine fisheries, and,in turn, the communities and economies that dependon those resources, both within and outside the tropics.
Here, we begin by outlining the physical and biogeochemical changes associated with anthropogenic warming, followed by the response of tropical marine fish
resources to these changes.
Physical and biogeochemical changes. Tropical marine
fisheries are increasingly exposed to changes in the physical and biogeochemical properties of the ocean (including warming, sea-level rise, deoxygenation, acidification
and altered nutrient concentrations), attributed to risingconcentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, inparticular, CO2 emissions33–35. Indeed, tropical oceans
are among the first places to show the emergence ofanthropogenic signals of climate change, that is, variation in physical and biogeochemical variables exceeding
the historical natural range36–38. As many socioecologicalsystems are adapted to natural variability, any changes inocean properties outside the normal range of observed
natural variability will trigger impacts that have notoccurred in the recent past39.
For instance, the ocean is warming because it absorbs>90% of the excess energy accumulated through risinganthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations40,41. Since
the beginning of the twentieth century, for example, thesea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical ocean has
risen by ~0.75 °C (refs34,42), with accelerated warming
observed since 1980 (ref.43). Tropical ocean warming is
expected to continue and amplify throughout thetwenty-first century (ref.36). By 2100, for instance, projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 indicate that tropical
SSTs will be 0.8 ± 0.3 °C and 2.9 ± 0.6 °C higher than the
1986–2005 average, respectively44. However, even larger
SST changes are expected in the equatorial Pacific compared with the southern subtropics, owing to changes inregional wind patterns and ocean circulation45.
Superimposed on the long-term warming areshort-term extreme warm temperature events, so-called
marine heatwaves46, which have devastating impacts
on marine ecosystems47,48. During the strong El Niño
events of 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, for example,
extreme ocean temperatures in the tropics and subtropics
triggered unprecedented pan-tropical mass bleaching ofcorals49. The number of marine heatwaves days exceeding the 99th percentile have doubled in frequency overthe period 1982–2016 and now occur four times a year,
in contrast to twice a year in 1982 (ref.50). Although better
understanding of the physical drivers is still needed forforecasting marine heatwaves effectively51, they are projected to be 20 and 50 times more frequent under RCP2.6
and RCP8.5, respectively, when comparing 1850–1900
to 2081–2100, with the largest changes expected in the
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Extratropical regions

Harvest, manage
and modify

Marine resources inother EEZs or high seas

Society

Tropical region

Food, revenue andlivelihoods

Export as commodity:
food and jobs

Marineresources

Society

Exploitation, transboundary fishing

Fig. 1 | telecoupling linkages between tropical marine fisheries and extratropical regions. These linkages enable
the flow of benefits, including food, livelihoods and government revenue, from tropical fisheries to extratropical locations.
Fish from the tropics sold in temperate-zone markets provides jobs and revenue to tropical nations. That flow of benefits
is threatened by the larger impact of climate change on tropical fishery systems. EEZs, exclusive economic zones.

tropics34,52. Extreme El Niño events, which also represent a form of marine heatwaves, are also projected
to increase over the course of the twenty-first century
under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (refs52–54).
Warming of the tropical ocean also increases stratification of the upper water column44,55, thereby, reducing
the exchange of oxygen-rich and oxygen-depleted water
bodies above and below the thermocline, respectively.
As the solubility of oxygen is reduced in warmer waters,
these changes have decreased oxygen content by 0.09–
0.34 μmol kg−1 year−1 for 300–700 m depths since the1950s, also strengthening the oxygen gradient between
the surface and the subsurface ocean layers56–59. Over thesame time period, oxygen minimum zones — regionsin the water column with the lowest oxygen concentrations, which are located in eastern parts of the tropical
Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Arabian Sea — have
expanded by 3–8% per decade58–60. While projectedchanges in oxygen minimum zones are uncertain61,62,
total oceanic oxygen content is projected to decline by
1.6–2.0% under RCP2.6 and 3.2–3.7% under RCP8.5
by 2100 (ref.34).
The ongoing oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2from the atmosphere has also increased the acidity oftropical and other waters34,63. For example, the ocean
surface-water pH has decreased by 0.013–0.03 units per
decade over the past 25 years (ref.44), with the largest
changes observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific andthe Indian Ocean36. Surface ocean pH is projected to fallby 0.03–0.042 units (ref.61) and the seasonal amplitudeof global mean surface ocean pH to increase by 16 ± 7%
by 2100 under RCP8.5 relative to present-day values64.
As a consequence, extreme ocean-acidity events will also
become more frequent, more intense and last longer
under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations65.
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Rising sea levels — caused by thermal expansion of
the ocean, changes in ocean dynamics and loss of land
ice — also pose a threat to many tropical fish habitats,such as mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs66. Sea levels
have risen in all tropical ocean basins and are projected
to continue in the twenty-first century66–72. The threats tocoastal habitats and fisheries from sea-level rise are exacerbated by increases in coastal extreme events, such as
tropical cyclone winds and rainfall.
Changes in net primary production. The marine foodwebs that support fisheries in oceanic and coastal
areas are based on the net primary productivity (NPP)of phytoplankton, which, in turn, is dependent on an
adequate supply of nutrients, light and appropriate temperature. However, increased stratification of the watercolumn, owing to upper ocean warming and freshening (increased precipitation), might inhibit the supplyof nutrients to the photic zone (surface waters)73,74, as
observed in the tropical Pacific74,75. In combination
with changes in light, nutrients, grazing and SST, suchocean-stratification changes are projected to decrease
tropical NPP by 7–16% under RCP8.5 by 2100 relative
to 2006–2015 (ref.44), consistent with global reductionsof <10% (refs61,75,76). The warming-related decrease in
NPP is projected to be amplified at higher trophic levels, resulting in a larger percentage decrease in fisheries
catch than is accounted for by effects on NPP alone76.
Changes in marine ecosystems. Physical and biogeochemical stressors are also affecting the distribution,
abundance and reproduction of fish and invertebrate
species, via ecosystems, with direct and indirect effects
on the production of marine fisheries39,77. Coral reefs,
mangroves and seagrasses — which provide feeding areas

ReviewsaFive-year average catch (tonnes)
0

Coral reef
Mangroves

Salt marshes
Seagrass

185,000

Global mean surface temperature

4
5
3

4
3

2

2
1.5

1

1

Presentday

Warm-water Seagrasscoralsmeadows

Salt
marshesGlobal mean sea-surface temperaturechange relative to pre-industrial levels (ºC)

change relative to pre-industrial levels (ºC)

bVery highHigh

Moderate

Undetectable

Mangroveforests

Fig. 2 | Climate change impacts on fish habitats and coastal fisheries. a | Spatial
distribution of warm-water corals, seagrass, salt marshes and mangrove forests216–219, and5-year annual average catch of marine species105. b | Level of risk posed by climate change
to the four coastal ecosystems, as derived from expert judgement (Supplementary Table 3).
The four major coastal habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change. These habitats
have already been affected by warming and are projected to continue to be reduced inarea under projected increase in temperature, with impacts on the marine ecosystems
supporting fisheries. In panel b, ‘undetectable’ represents impacts/risks are undetectable;‘moderate’ represents impacts/risks are detectable and attributable to climate change withat least medium confidence; ‘high’ represents significant and widespread impacts/risks;and ‘very high’ represents very high probability of severe impacts/risks and the presenceof significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combinedwith limited ability to adapt owing to the nature of the hazard or impacts and risks. Part aadapted with permission from Figure 5.17 of ref.36, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, IPCC. Part b adapted with permission from Figure 3dof ref.44, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, IPCC.

and habitats for part or all of fish lifespans — illustrateexamples of such ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic
stressors, including marine heatwaves48,50 (Fig. 2a).
Coral reefs, which often dominate tropical coastal
fish habitats, are among the marine ecosystems mostvulnerable to ocean warming. The majority of reefbuilding corals are already near their upper thermal

limits78, and the median return time between pairs ofsevere-coral-bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 to 6 years (ref. 79) . Even if anthropogenic warming is limited to 1.5 °C, 70–90% of existing
reef-building corals are expected to be lost by the end of
the century80. In addition, ocean acidification is reducing calcium carbonate saturation levels, limiting coralcapacity to build calcareous skeletons. Indeed, the critical threshold for chronic effects of climate change oncoral reefs might already have been (or soon will be)reached80 (Fig. 2b). Similarly, half the world’s coastal
wetlands, including seagrass meadows, salt marshes
and mangroves, are thought to have been lost since thenineteenth century81 through climatic and non-climatic
drivers48,50. There is high confidence that these ecosystems will continue to be lost through warming andsea-level rise, with some estimates of 20–90% loss by
the end of the century, depending on the emission
scenario36 (Fig. 2b).
Much like corals, marine ectothermic species (including all fishes and invertebrates) can only grow, reproduce
and survive within specific temperature ranges, as determined by their physiology and ecology82. For tropicalmarine species, these thermal tolerances are more limited than temperate species83, making them particularly
sensitive to ocean warming84. As a result, the distributionof many marine fishes and invertebrates has shifted polewards, to deeper waters or to follow ocean isotherms85,86,
where the prevailing environmental conditions (particularly temperature) favour growth and survival85,86.
Observed and projected distributional shifts are estimated to be 30–130 km per decade polewards and 3.5 m
per decade towards deeper waters86–92. These projected
range shifts away from the tropics might decrease species
richness in areas where environmental conditions haveexceeded the tolerance limits of endemic species86.
The aerobic capacity of fishes and invertebrates isalso affected by decreasing water oxygen content and its
interactions with ocean warming93,94. Ocean deoxygenation can limit important metabolic functions that impair
growth and reproduction in fishes and invertebrates, aswell as reducing their temperature tolerances and, thus,
geographic ranges95–97. Ocean warming and deoxygenation also reduces the body size of some marine fishes andinvertebrates, particularly in the tropics98–101. For example, the average maximum body size of marine fish in thetropics is projected to decrease by ~20% by 2050 relative
to 2000 under RCP8.5 (ref.101).
Collectively, the various stressors associated with climate change have widespread effects on tropical fisheries
resources36. Thus, direct and indirect effects of continued
greenhouse gas emissions are expected to substantiallyreduce the biomass of living marine resources in thetropics102. For example, projections from global-scalemodels of fisheries and marine ecosystems indicatethat the total marine animal biomass in the tropics will
decrease by 7.3 ± 3.1% under RCP2.6 and 23.2 ± 9.5%
under RCP8.5 by 2100, relative to the 2000s 36. Suchdecreases in animal biomass are largely driven by ocean
warming and the decline in NPP in tropical waters
resulting from climate change103, illustrating a substantial
risk to marine stocks.
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Changes in marine fish stocks. Global marine fish catchhas averaged between 80 and 91 million tonnes per year
since 1990 (refs104,105), with mean gross revenues fluctuating around US$100 billion annually106. These valuesa<–50 –30 –15 –5
5
15Change in MCP/MRP (%)

Latitude (°)

b

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
–30
–40
–50
–60
–70
–80
–90

>30

Arctic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Southern Ocean–60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Change in catch (%)

Latitude (°)

c

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
–30
–40
–50
–60
–70
–80
–90

Arctic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Southern Ocean–60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10

0

10

20

30

40

Change in landed value (%)

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50

60

70

80

90

100

do not include unreported catches, and the ‘true’ annual
average global fish catch is estimated to be 100–130 million tonnes since the 1980s105. However, after reaching its
peak in the 1990s, fish catches have been declining andseem to have levelled off because many fish stocks are
considered to be either fully exploited or overexploited(that is, spawning biomass is below the reference values
to achieve maximum sustainable yield)104,107–113. Tropicalfisheries have also expanded rapidly: annual catch has
increased from 7.1 million tonnes (US$7.3 billion) in
the 1950s to 50 million tonnes in 2016 (US$89.7 billion), and the annual average catch estimates become
53.6 million tonnes when unreported catches are taken
into account104,105.
However, climate change threatens these fish stocks.
Changes in temperature and phytoplankton production are related to the changes in fisheries catches andspecies composition in many tropical marine ecosystems since 1950 (refs114–116). Furthermore, analysis offish-population data shows that the maximum sustainable yield of 235 fish populations over 38 ecoregions has
been reduced by 4.1% over the past 80 years (ref.116), andincreases in SST have led to negative changes in marine
fisheries production in 8 of 47 large marine ecosystems
between 1998 and 2006 (ref.114). Historical catch datafrom tropical ecosystems also show substantial increases
in the dominance of warm-water-tolerant species sincethe 1970s that are related to ocean warming116,117.
These observed changes are also projected to continue and amplify in the future. Global impact models,for example, predict decreases in maximum catch potential(MCP) of up to 40% in some tropical EEZs by the 2050s33(Fig. 3a,b). The decrease in catch potential, driven largely
by ocean warming and decrease in NPP, is projected tobe particularly large in tropical Pacific and eastern tropical Atlantic regions under the high-emissions scenario.
For instance, in the Indo-Pacific region, 3.5 °C atmospheric warming is projected to decrease maximum catch
potential by 46.8 ± 1.2%, as well as cause species turnoverof 36.4 ± 2.1% (refs31,118). In the tropical Pacific region,
more than half of the (mainly coastal) fish and invertebrate species important to fisheries are also projected to
become locally extinct by 2100 under RCP8.5 (refs29,44),
contributing to the large decrease in the catch potential.
Overall, by 2100, changes in biomass, catch potential
and species composition are projected to be 2–4 times
greater under RCP8.5 compared with RCP2.6 (ref.34).
Similarly, an index that integrates the projected effectsof ocean warming, deoxygenation and acidification for
exploited fish stocks in the tropics indicates that theFig. 3 | Climate change impacts on maximum catch
potential and maximum revenue potential. a | Mean
percentage change in maximum catch potential (MCP) andmaximum revenue potential (MRP) for 2041–2060 relative
to 1991–2010 under Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5. b | Zonally averaged projected changes in
MCP based on data in panel a for the major ocean basins.
c | Zonally averaged projected changes in MRP based ondata in panel a for the major ocean basins. The greatest
declines in MCP and MRP are found in tropical regionsof the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Parts a and c
reprinted from ref.31, CC BY 4.0.

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Box 1 | Fisheries in the Pacific islands region
Across the 22 Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), models predict an easternredistribution in the biomass of skipjack and yellowfin tuna — the two main exported
fish species — by 2050 (refs28,158,220–222). Under Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5, for example, the combined catch of both tuna species is projected todecrease by ~10–40% by 2050 in the exclusive economic zones of Federated States ofMicronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tokelau
and Tuvalu123,222. However, given the eastern redistribution, tuna catch is anticipatedto increase in the exclusive economic zones of Kiribati and Cook Islands by 15–20%(refs123,222).
As several PICTs are tuna-dependent economies123, the impact of climate change ontuna fisheries increases the vulnerability of these small island developing states124,223,224.
For instance, shifts in tuna distribution, and resulting increases in catches frominternational waters222, are expected to cause proportional changes in government
revenue received by small island developing states from fishing licence fees123,224. Thesechanges need to be considered by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission
when governing the sustainable use of the region’s tuna resources147,225, developing
harvest strategies226 and allocating fishing rights to minimize the implications of tunaredistribution for island economies.
The projected 20–50% decrease in productivity of coral reef fish in the Pacific Islands
region by 2050 under RCP8.5 (refs29,227) is expected to influence the contributionsof small-scale fisheries to food security in most PICTs7,224. However, rapid population
growth in several PICTs is expected to have a greater influence than declining reef fish
production on future availability of fish per capita223,224. The rich tuna resources of the
Pacific Islands region can be used to fill the widening gap between the total amount offish that can be harvested sustainably from coral reefs and other coastal habitats, andthat required for good nutrition122,157.

risk of impacts increases from moderate-to-high under
RCP2.6 to very high risk under RCP8.5 (ref.119).
Maximum sustainable yield
The highest possible annual
catch that can be removed
from a population while
keeping the maximum growthover a long period of time.
The maximum sustainable
yield refers to a hypotheticalequilibrium state between the
exploited population andthe fishing activity.

Maximum catch potential(MCP). The potential of the
fish stocks to provide long-termfish catches; it is considered
a proxy of the maximum
sustainable yield.

Species turnover
The number of species locallyextinct and newly establishedin a particular area, used torepresent the extent ofchanges in the species
assemblage.

Representative
Concentration Pathway(RCP). Four climate change
scenarios are included in theFifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change. Only
scenarios with the highest(RCP8.5) and lowest (RCP2.6)
radiative forcing are mentioned
in this Review.

Effects on communities and economies. The previously
discussed impacts of climate change on tropical ecosystems and fish stocks will have profound economic120
and social121 effects. In the absence of improved management, marine fisheries revenues are projected to declinein 89% of the world’s fishing countries under RCP8.5
by 2050, relative to their current status31. The greatest
negative impact on maximum revenue potential (MRP)
is in tropical regions, with EEZs in the central Pacificand central Atlantic being affected the most (Fig. 3c).
The MRP is projected to decline by an average of 33%
in the tropics by the 2050s under RCP8.5 (ref.31) (Fig. 3c).
The EEZs with the largest average decrease in MCP
mostly belong to SIDS31. However, projected reductionsin MCP in a country’s EEZ do not necessarily translate toproportional losses in revenue31, for example, if national
vessels fish not only in their own EEZs but also in thoseof other countries or in international waters.
The implications of climate change for thesocio-economic benefits derived from fisheries also
vary by region, with the greatest effects occurring in
low-income, food-deficit tropical countries, including SIDS, African and Asian countries or regions, forexample, West Africa and Southeast Asia 31. Thesedeveloping countries usually rely heavily on fish
and fisheries as a major source of micronutrients forhealthy diets, as well as for livelihood and employment
opportunities122,123, but have a relatively low capacity toadapt121,124. Therefore, adverse effects of climate change on
the catch and total fisheries revenues in these countries
are proportionally greater than in countries with a highhuman development index and a large, diverse economy2,125.

Climate change might also lead to the loss of 10–40%
of species suitable for marine aquaculture in the tropics
and subtropics by 2050 (ref.126). The losses in richnessof potential mariculture species are projected to behigher throughout much of the tropics under climatechange126–128, particularly impacting Asian countries
that contribute the most to mariculture production.
Furthermore, the potential area suitable for tropicalmariculture is estimated to decline by 3.69% ± 0.59 by
the 2090s under RCP8.5, relative to the 66 million km2
available in the 2000s126, limiting the scope for seafood
production expansion needed to meet growing demand.
Examples of the expected effects of climate change on
fisheries resources and on the socio-economic benefits
they provide for communities and economies in PICTs,
Brazil and coastal African nations are included in Box 1,
Box 2 and Box 3, respectively. Fisheries reform has thepotential to offset the consequences of climate change,
however. Indeed, addressing current inefficiencies,
adapting to changes in productivity and implementing
improvements in institutional management could provide benefits exceeding the adverse effects of climatechange and drive net increases in yields and profits129.

Telecoupling to the extratropics
Seafood is the most highly traded food commodity globally104,130. Trade has increased in recent decades due to greater demand and willingness to pay
for high-quality produce131. Tropical nations often
gain considerable benefits from this international
trade, especially in exporting countries that have low
per-capita fish consumption but large offshore fisheries (such as Namibia) or where the rate of production
from wild-caught fisheries has increased faster than local
demand for fish (such as in Ghana, Thailand and thePhilippines)132. The partial dependence of developed
extratropical countries on tropical fisheries resources
exposes them to the consequences of climate change intropical regions via telecoupling (Fig. 1). For instance,
the projected declines in MCP of up to 40% by the2050s for many fish species, combined with increased
demand for seafood by many tropical developing countries due to economic growth, could reduce the future
supply of seafood to extratropical countries31. Much of
the trade involves high-value species (especially tuna,
Supplementary Table 1) exported from developing tropical countries to developed extratropical nations130–133(Fig. 4). During 2015–2017, for example, ~46% of fishcaught by Caribbean countries was exported to North
America, and 20% to the European Union134.
However, low-value, small pelagic fish, such as
anchovies and sardines, also represent a major proportion of fish exports, especially in South America,
West Africa135,136, Thailand and Vietnam137. These fish,caught in tropical areas, are often converted to fishmeal, a key component of feeds for the aquaculture of
salmon, trout and shrimp, traded internationally inthe extratropics138,139. Indeed, in 2016, ~12% of marine
fisheries production was used for non-food purposes,of which 74% (~15 million tonnes) was converted tofishmeal and fish oil104,140. Although climate change
models predict that marine ecosystems should continue
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Reviews
Maximum revenue potential(MRP). Landed values at the
maximum catch potential.

Human development index
A summary measure of averageachievement in key dimensionsof human development:a long and healthy life, being
knowledgeable and a decent
standard of living.

to produce good harvests of small pelagic fish, the sustainability and profitability of the fishmeal trade (andmaintenance of its associated economic benefits forfishing communities) will depend on interactions withfisheries management, market-stabilization measures,
improvements in technology, international cooperation,
development of soybean-based fishmeal substitutes141
and implementation of global rules for seafood markets
aimed at improving ecosystem health142–145.
A potent example of the consequences of telecoupling on extratropical economies and communities isprovided by the effects of climate-driven changes in the
distribution, catch composition and catch potential of
Peruvian anchoveta (a small pelagic fish used to produce fishmeal139) on aquaculture operations in higher
latitudes. Salmon aquaculture in Norway, Chile, theUK and Canada provides over 85% of global farmed
salmon production146 and, with the exception of Chile,these countries depend heavily on imported fishmeal,
including that derived from Peruvian anchoveta143. The
pronounced effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)-mediated climatic variability on annual harvests of Peruvian anchoveta led telecoupled aquaculture industries to develop mechanisms to cope withdramatic variations in the supply of anchoveta. In particular, the wild-fish component in aquaculture feedis being replaced with soybean meal, rendered terrestrial animal products and seafood or aquaculture processing wastes142. These innovations might enable theconsumption of farmed fish to increase by 2050 evenunder RCP8.5 (ref.145), thereby, limiting the effects of climate change on the telecoupled dependence of salmon
farming on Peruvian anchoveta.
Implementation of sustainable fisheries operations by
distant-water fishing nations in the EEZs of many SIDS

Box 2 | Fisheries in Brazil
The south-western Atlantic Ocean is a hotspot of climate change228, with increased
sea-surface temperature the most prominent climate risk to marine resources, followedby changes in ocean circulation and stratification. These physical climatic changes are
anticipated to influence primary production, reducing productivity for fisheries in
Brazil228,229. In saline and freshwater wetlands, climate change-modified hydrologicalregimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundation, are expected to reduce
habitat area and the abundance of fish in confined refugia230. Increases in temperature
on floodplains are expected to increase the frequency and duration of hypoxic oranoxic episodes, leading to a reduction in growth rates and a mismatch in reproductive
success of many species231.
In fact, Brazilian fisheries have already seen changes in fish distribution, influencing
livelihoods228,232–234. Climate-related shift in the spatial distribution of marine species
has been recorded in both coastal and offshore waters235–237; some species (such as theBrazilian sardine) are moving to cooler and deeper waters, whereas others (squid)
have migrated to areas with warmer winter temperatures238. Rising sea levels andhydroclimatic variability, for example, have resulted in loss of mangrove and wetland
habitats239, including in the Amazon and Pantanal floodplains230, and this is expected
to have knock-on effects on the production of fisheries associated with these habitats.
Ocean acidification has also inhibited coastal seaweed photosynthetic pigments240
and the osmoregulation capacity of crustaceans such as crabs241.
Given the large internal market for fish in Brazil, as well as increasing per-capita fishconsumption, these changes will have corresponding economic impacts228. El Niño
events, for example, have been responsible for economic losses of US$9 million peryear in the shrimp and mullet fisheries of South Brazil228. Moreover, climate-induced
distribution shifts of some transboundary fish species may lead to conflicts between
countries in the region and negatively affect international relations.

Nature Reviews | Earth & Environmentand coastal states147 delivers significant benefits for thewell-being of communities and economies in tropicalcountries14. However, it also important for extratropical countries. Similarly, fisheries-management legislationin extratropical countries can affect the socio-economic
benefits derived from fisheries in telecoupled tropicalregions. For example, the Chinese government’s decision to reduce fuel subsidies by 60% and its pending
legislation to improve the monitoring of Chinese vessels fishing in the EEZs of other nations are expected toreduce the high pressure exerted by Chinese vessels onfish stocks in Senegal. These measures should improve
the status of marine resources in that country and thecontributions of local fisheries to livelihoods and foodsecurity148,149.
The effects of climate change on tropical fisheriesalso influence the profitability and employment opportunities of fish-processing industries in extratropicalregions such as Spain, Italy, France, the USA and Japan.
Spain, for example, is the most important producer ofcanned tuna in Europe (and the second largest globally
after Thailand)150, employing more than 18,000 people
in 2016 (refs15,151) and responsible for the investment of
hundreds of millions of Euros in the fishing and processing industries in Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala
and Venezuela — an investment that has provided about
35,000 jobs in these countries150. Raw materials for theworld’s tuna-processing industries are often supplied bydistant-water fleets or imports from SIDS and developing countries in African, Caribbean and Pacific regions.
Thus, climate-related changes in the distribution andabundance of tuna (Box 1)152,153 threaten not only thenational plans of SIDS and developing countries tomaximize the contributions of their marine fisheries
resources for food security, employment and economic
development154 but also investments by distant-water
fishing nations in tropical developing countries.

Impacts on sustainable development
Tropical marine resources support important aspectsof sustainable development, specifically related to the
UN Sustainable Development Goals on food security(SDG2) and economic development to eliminate poverty (SDG1). It is clear that adaptations that maintain the
supply of fish for food security in tropical countries needto address both the effects of climate change on coastal
fish habitats and fish stocks, as well as the effects of popu­
lation growth and other socio-economic factors on theavailability of fish per capita. Win–win and ‘no-regrets’solutions (Supplementary Table 2) (that is, actions thatgenerate net social benefits under all future scenariosand consequences of climate change155) are needed33,122.
The Pacific Island approach (Box 1) demonstrates thatadverse effects of climate change on one marine fisheries resource can sometimes be addressed by modifying the way in which another such resource is used.
Exemplary management of tuna in the western and central Pacific Ocean156, for example, enables Pacific Island
governments to allocate an increased, albeit still minor,
proportion of the regional tuna resource to domestic
food security157. Importantly, climate-driven redistribution of tuna158 is not expected to affect this capability

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Provisioning services
Includes tangible products
from ecosystems that humans
make use of, such as fish andseafood, agricultural crops,
timber or fresh water.

Regulating services
The benefits people obtainowing to the regulation ofnatural processes, such ascarbon sequestration andstorage, erosion prevention,
waste-water treatment andmoderation of extreme events.

Supporting services
The services that are necessary
for the maintenance of allother ecosystem services
including biomass production,
life-cycle maintenance for bothfauna and local, element andnutrient cycling.

Cultural services
Tourism, recreational, aesthetic
and spiritual benefits.

because ample tuna is still expected to be available forthis purpose122.
Two other implications of the Pacific Island situation stand out. First, climate justice159 needs to extend
to the fisheries sector because tuna-dependent PacificIsland economies produce a trivial percentage of global
greenhouse gas emissions. This fact needs to be recognized and PICTs enabled to retain the importantsocio-economic benefits they receive from tuna14, regardless of climate-driven redistribution of tuna resources123.
Second, the Western and Central Pacific FisheriesCommission (WCPFC) and the Inter-American Tropical
Tuna Commission (IATTC) will increasingly need tocollaborate as climate change alters the distributions oftransboundary tuna stocks. Close collaboration between
these two regional fisheries-management organizations
is expected to reduce the potential for conflict arisingfrom species on the move147. Moreover, improved coordination of harvest strategies across the jurisdictionsof the WCPFC and the IATTC will help to ensure thesustainability of tropical Pacific fisheries resources (Box 1).
The wide spectrum of potential climate-relatedchanges influence the services provided by tropicalmarine ecosystems (including provisioning services,
regulating services, supporting services and cultural services)in various ways, thereby, differentially affecting the abilities of SIDS and other developing countries to achieve
their sustainable development goals160–162. However, theeffects of climate change on the services provided bymarine ecosystems often have the largest direct effects
on SDG2 (eliminating hunger)162 because declines infood production are common when marine species
shift their distributions and/or decrease in biomass.
However, shifts in the distribution of fish species also
hinder progress towards SDG1 (poverty alleviation) andSDG8 (economic growth and job creation). Interestingly,
although the projected shifts in tuna biomass within
the tropical Pacific Ocean (Box 1) are expected to makeit more difficult for PICTs in the western and central
Pacific Ocean (which are heavily dependent on marine
ecosystems14,121,163) to achieve their sustainable development goals, the same shifts are likely to boost the abilityof countries in the eastern Pacific to attain theirs161.

Box 3 | Fisheries in african nations
Already affected by pollution, overfishing and weak enforcement of fishingregulations242,243, marine ecosystems in Africa are now also threatened by various
physical and biogeochemical anthropogenic stressors. While many African marine fish
are more resilient to warming than species elsewhere, unprecedented coral bleachingand extensive coral mortality across most of the western Indian Ocean has decreased
fisheries production and their associated benefits for communities in East Africa244,245.
Model simulations also predict that marine fish catches in most West African countries
will decrease by >50% by 2050 under RCP8.5, with the largest reductions in countries
nearest the equator246. Projections are, however, model dependent; for example, somepredict that fish landings will decline by 8–26% (ref.246), whereas others project a 23.9%
increase in the Gulf of Guinea by 2050 (refs247,248). Nevertheless, all models suggest thatfisheries in the tropical African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change121,124.
These climate-related changes are anticipated to decrease the value of landed catchby ~20% by 2050, as well as reduce fisheries-related jobs by ~50% (ref.246). These impacts
will not only affect food security in tropical African countries but also influence othereconomies reliant on African fish imports. However, the consequences for local fishingcommunities depend strongly on their adaptive capacity247,249.

Adaptation and mitigation measures
Practical and effective adaptations to assist fishers,
local communities, industries and governing institutions in SIDS and other tropical developing countries
to sustain their fisheries production in the face ofclimate-related and climate-unrelated stressors32,121 fall
into three broad categories: ecosystem-based solutions,built-environment solutions and institutional-based or
policy-based solutions. Ecosystem-based adaptations
rely on the management, conservation and restoration of fish habitats and fish stocks to provide optimal
ecosystem services despite climate change, including
sequestration of carbon to mitigate greenhouse gas
emissions164,165. Built-environment adaptations166,167
often involve designing coastal infrastructure tocope with sea-level rise in ways that minimize barriers to the landwards migration of mangrove and seagrass habitats33,122. Institutional-based or policy-based
adaptations168–170 include practices and policies that
support climate-informed, community-based responses
to sustain catches within established social governanceand economic systems171. Additional steps are required
to limit greenhouse gas emissions and, thereby, increase
the likelihood that these adaptations will succeed.
Adaptation of small-scale fisheries. Various practical,
cost-effective adaptations could help to maintain thecontributions of small-scale fisheries to food security
and livelihoods in SIDS and other tropical developing countries122. Whenever possible, such adaptations
should address present-day factors that affect access tofish for food security, as well as the effects of climatechange122,172 (Supplementary Table 2). ‘Win–win’ adaptations and supporting policies revolve around integrated
coastal management to safeguard fish habitats, but canalso include diversifying fishing methods125. One of theexamples is to support coastal communities to progressively transfer fishing effort from coral reefs and otherthreatened coastal habitats to large and small pelagic
fish species in near-shore waters to meet shortfalls
in fish supply122,173 (Supplementary Table 2).
Primary fisheries-management174 approaches arealso needed to maintain the reproductive potential offish stocks in data-poor contexts. Improving fisheries
management and rebuilding overexploited or depleted
fish stocks can help alleviate climate-induced decreasein potential fisheries production on actual catches129,175;
however, the effectiveness of such adaptation measures
is likely to be lower in many tropical developing countries, particularly in small-scale fisheries, where capacity for effective fisheries management is not ideal. As
such, enhancing fisheries-management capacity, fromgathering and utilizing scientific information to fisheries governance, is an important part of the portfolio ofadaptation measures for tropical fisheries.
For many small-scale coastal fisheries, communitybased fisheries management is an effective method ofadaptation to climate change because it is based on iterative cycles of learning from and responding to changing
conditions176. As evidence of the potential contributionof community-based management of fisheries in vulnerable regions, the Government of Solomon Islands
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a Pacific Island countries and territories

European Union
US$184 million

United States
US$79 million

Japan
US$140 million
Thailand
US$287 million

Pacific Islands
regionAnnual average landed values (US$ billion)

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United States
US$108 million

Japan
US$6.7 million

China
US$12 million
Brazilc Tropical African countries
Russia
US$44 million
United States
US$19 million

European Union
US$533 million

Japan
US$103 million

China
US$86 million
Tropical
Africancountries

Annual average landed values (US$ billion)

European Union
US$19 million

Annual average landed values (US$ billion)b Brazil

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

PICTs

Japan Indonesia Taiwan Korea Philippines USA

Other
countries

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5

The annual average landed values
by distant-water fleets from othercountries operating in the EEZ of
Brazil is relatively low whencompared with the total landed
values by Brazil (US$1.2 million)

1.0
0.5
0

BrazilOther
countries

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Other
Tropical European China Russian BelizeFederation
countries
African Union
countries

Fig. 4 | Economic telecoupling of tropical fisheries. Annual average value (US$ million) of fish exports from Pacific Island
countries and territories (PICTs) (panel a), Brazil (panel b) and Africa (panel c) to their main trading partners for 2014–2018(left), and annual average landed values (US$ billions) of fish caught in the three corresponding groups of exclusive
economic zones (EEZs) by the countries and territories in those regions and by distant-water fishing nations between 2007
and 2016 (right). There are close linkages between the tropical regions and the extratropical nations through trade anddistant-water fishing, indicating that any climate-related changes to tropical fisheries have socio-economic implications
for many extratropical nations. Note that values from the Pacific Islands region are for tuna only, and the catch values refer
to tuna caught from the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Convention Area, which is larger than the combined EEZs of
PICTs (see Supplementary Tables 1,4–8). Source of data for panel a: Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency.

has identified community-based resource management
as a key tool for building the capacity to adapt to climate change177. Similarly, communities in Timor-Leste
have successfully experimented with small-scale fishaggregating devices178,179 as a response to changes in
species distribution resulting from climate change180.
Community-based fisheries management requires theparticipation of communities and resource users in
Nature Reviews | Earth & Environment

decision-making activities and the incorporation of local
institutions, customary practices and knowledge systems
into management processes181.
Community-based management can take many
forms, including locally managed marine areas, territorialuser rights, customary marine tenure, taboo areas182 (spatial closures) and periodic harvesting (temporal) closures.
These diverse approaches share three characteristics that

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provide a foundation for effective adaptation176,183. First,
community-based management is often characterized byexperimentation and learning, which are critical components of adaptation solutions in the context of uncertainty and change32,184. For example, periodic harvestingclosures, a common marine-management approach in
the western Pacific, involves iterative cycles of experimentation, evaluation and adjustment185. Appropriate
spatial and temporal closures can help to maintain fishstocks, fisheries yield and catch efficiency, thus, building ecological resilience and reducing social and ecological vulnerability to climate change186,187. Second,
community-based fisheries management prioritizes local
and indigenous knowledge, which is essential for climatechange adaptation188. For example, in the Torres Strait
Islands, local knowledge about past climactic patterns has
been used to design rock walls and wind breaks, as wellas guide the planting of native coastal species, to reduceclimate vulnerability189. Third, the flexibility inherent in many community-based fisheries-management
approaches supports effective adaptation. For example,
changes in permitted equipment or target species enable
responses to climate-driven changes arising from shifts
in the range of a species or changes in abundance within
its range190,191.
The steps to build climate resilience in tropicalfisheries through effective community-based fisheries
management might involve promoting transdisciplinary collaboration, including provision of the necessary
expertise to inform stakeholders about climate-driven
risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches; facilitating
the participation of these stakeholders; monitoring thewider fisheries system for the effects of climate change;
and allocating resources to enable implementation ofan ecosystem approach to fisheries management171. The
contributions of community-based and ecosystem-based
fisheries management to building climate resilienceis mediated by how well decision-making institutions
fit their socioecological conditions, effective communication processes among key stakeholders and key
leaders, effective cooperation among groups and politicalmanagement skills, as well as global action on climatechange192,193.
Adaptation of industrial fisheries. The fisheries reform129
to address current inefficiencies, respond to changes in
productivity and improve institutional management islikely to contribute to reducing the consequences of climate change for industrial fisheries under good national
governance. However, climate-driven shifts in distributions of fish species across political boundaries require
higher levels of collaboration to avoid disputes that can
impair the sustainability of co-managed fisheries147,194,195.
Some cooperative fisheries-management arrangementsin the tropics are flexible enough to respond reasonably
effectively to transboundary redistribution of biomass34.
A prime example is the ‘vessel day scheme’ operated by
the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (Federated Statesof Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau,
Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu),
which addresses the effects of climatic variability andclimate change on the distribution of tuna stocks within

the combined EEZs of the eight countries123. However,projected shifts in tuna from the combined EEZs into
international waters, and an overall decrease in tuna production across the region in the long term, remain key
challenges, particularly under RCP8.5 (Box 1).
Ultimately, effective management of transboundary
fish stocks in the face of climate change will depend on
identifying all self-replenishing populations within thegeographical range of the species, modelling the responseof each population to climate change and identifying
the stakeholders for each current and redistributed
population123,196,197. New combinations of stakeholders
require the development of cooperative sustainable
harvest strategies informed by changing ocean conditions. Effective management of the large transboundarystocks that underpin several tropical industrial fisheries also requires improved monitoring, modellingand decision-support frameworks. Built-environment
options, such as improved climate-forecasting andadvanced-warning systems, not only for the extreme
events that affect fishing vessel and crew safety at sea but
also for geographical shifts in biomass of target fish species, will also facilitate sustained operation of industrial
fisheries, and the equitable sharing of economic benefits
derived from them, as the climate continues to change36.
Greenhouse gas-emission mitigation. Ultimately, theroot causes of climate-driven changes in tropical marine
fisheries must be addressed198. Climate models indicatethat mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and keeping global atmospheric warming below 1.5 °C relative
to pre-industrial levels avoids substantial biologicaland socio-economic effects on tropical fisheries118,199.
Implementation of the Paris Agreement would help
to safeguard the annual global catch of high-value fish
species and billions of dollars of revenue for fishers andseafood workers199. Similar benefits are also expected
for tropical developing countries and telecoupled
extratropical countries.
Implementation by all countries of the national determined contributions stated in the Paris Agreement200
would help to achieve the necessary mitigation of emissions. Although many tropical developing countries produce very low levels of greenhouse gases compared with
developed nations, the tropical-marine-fisheries sector
can still contribute meaningfully to the global mitigation effort. The mangrove, seagrass and salt-marsh habitats that sustain fish stocks and coastal communities
throughout much of the tropics are carbon sinks201–203
that are an important part of the portfolio of mitigation
options for many tropical countries200. However, damage
to these ecosystems due to deforestation and habitat degradation is causing 0.15–1.02 billion tonnes of CO2 to bereleased annually204. These emissions are equivalent to
3–19% of those caused by global deforestation and resultin economic damage of US$6–42 billion annually204.
Protection of mangrove, seagrass and salt-marsh ecosystems is imperative to maintain their capacity to remove
greenhouse gas from the atmosphere36. In Columbia,
mangroves and seagrasses in marine protected areas
account for 49–94% of the nation’s annual carbon capture and provide economic benefits totalling €44–295
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Reviews
million per year205. Small-scale fisheries have potential
roles as carbon stewards in projects designed to deliver
payments for ecosystem services206,207, although skeptics
suggest that such schemes only facilitate ‘ocean grabbing’ and effectively cede control of coastal ecosystems
to transnational companies seeking to offset their carbon emissions208. Thus, although the climate-adaptationand climate-mitigation measures taken by thetropical-marine-fisheries sector offer much potential for
success, their effectiveness will depend on strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic
conditions that support an adequate adaptive capacity198.
Small-scale fisheries, industrial fisheries and aquaculture operations in tropical countries (and globally)
also have a role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Practical adaptations enabling the sector to do
this have been assembled by the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO)33. Fisheries
improvements ranging from increasing the efficiency
of fishing boats to adjustment or adaptation of fishingmethods are also considered as useful mitigation measures for tropical small-scale fisheries. Greenhouse gas
emissions from small fishing vessels can be reducedby the use of more efficient engines, larger propellers,
improved vessel shapes and simply by reducing the mean
speed of vessels33. Where small-scale tuna fisheries areneeded to increase fish supply and ensure food security
in SIDS, emissions can be reduced by fishing aroundfish-aggregating devices anchored close to the coast209.

Summary and future perspectives
Tropical fisheries have an important role in supportingfood security and livelihoods in tropical countries and in
extratropical regions through socio-economic telecoupling (for example, via distant-water fishing and seafood
trade). The direct and indirect effects of climate change
are projected to impair tropical marine ecosystems
and fisheries, reducing their contributions to humanwell-being. To reduce the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on the benefits derived from tropical fisheries,
both locally and in non-tropical regions, the root causesof climate-driven fisheries problems now evident in thetropics need to be recognized and rectified. Effective climate change adaptation and mitigation solutions require
stakeholder commitment and involvement, as well as
appropriate supporting policies.
The science linking physical changes (warming
and sea-level rise) and biogeochemical alterations(acidification and deoxygenation) to the ocean to the
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Nature Reviews | Earth & Environment

physiological and ecological responses of fish species isdeveloping rapidly and giving rise to more robust predictive models. However, there is an urgent need to identify
robust, practical adaptations to maintain the vital contributions that tropical fisheries make to communities
and economies as the abundance and distribution offisheries resources are rearranged by continued greenhouse gas emissions. Until global emissions conform tolevels that will limit warming to 1.5 °C, it is also essential that policy frameworks are developed to support
priority adaptations.
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pointing to a promising convergence of these disparate
fields. This enlarged Earth system science, guided by anemergent emphasis on geoethics, may be better placed
to serve humanity’s transition to sustainability in the
Anthropocene, including a transition to sustainable andresilient fisheries in a changing climate.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank S. Heron for advice on the effects of ocean
warming on corals, C. Reid for assistance with information on
the value of tuna exports and catches from Pacific Island fisheries and G. Reygondeau for providing concept and design on
the figures. V.W.Y.L. acknowledges funding support from
Nippon Foundation Nereus Program and the World Bank.
E.H.A. acknowledges funding from Nippon Foundation Ocean
Nexus Program, CGIAR Research Program on Fish Agri-Food
Systems and the Australian National Centre for Ocean
Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, for a visiting professorship. J.D.B. acknowledges funding support fromNature Reviews | Earth & Environment

the Moccasin Lake Foundation. W.W.L.C. thanks the Hans
Sigrist Foundation and the Oeschger Centre for Climate
Change Research for financial support for his residence at the
University of Bern. W.W.L.C. also acknowledges funding support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering ResearchCouncil of Canada, Social Sciences (Discovery Grant),
Humanity Research Council of Canada through the
OceanCanada Partnership, the Nippon Foundation–
University of British Columbia Nereus Program and theKillam Research Fellowship. T.L.F. has received funding fromthe Swiss National Science Foundation (PP00P2_170687)
and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earthsystem — quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, andnutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces
with respect to tipping points). M.A.G. acknowledges support
from CNPq (Brazilian National Council for Scientific andTechnological Development) and FAPESP (Sao Paulo
Research Foundation). U.R.S. thanks the funding support
from Social Sciences (Discovery Grant), Humanity ResearchCouncil of Canada through the OceanCanada Partnership andthe World Bank.

Author contributions
All authors contributed to writing the article. In addition,
V.W.Y.L. and J.D.B. researched data for the article, V.W.Y.L.,

E.H.A., J.D.B. and W.W.L.C. contributed to discussions of its
content and V.W.Y.L., E.H.A., J.D.B., J.B., W.W.L.C., T.L.F.,
M.A.G. and U.R.S. participated in reviewing or editing of themanuscript before submission.

Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.

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Supplementary information
Supplementary information is available for this paper athttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9.

Related links
Pacific islands Forum Fisheries Agency: www.ffa.int
sea Around Us catch database: www.seaaroundus.org
United Nations Commodity Trade statistics Database:https://comtrade.un.org/Data/
western and Central Pacific Fisheries Convention Area:
www.wcpfc.int/doc/convention-area-map© Springer Nature Limited 2020