IEEJ：August 2021© IEEJ2021

IEEJ Webinar for the World

Japan’s challenges for boosting
renewable energy

Yoshiaki SHIBATA
New and Renewable Energy GroupThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Historical trend of global RE
 The global RE (including large-scale hydro) accounts only for 28% in 2020 (Wind is 6%and solar PV in 3%).
 Regional difference: 41% in Europe, 25% in Asia & Oceania
The World RE power Generation by Region
HydroTWhWind

Geo & Bio

8,000

Solar

Share45%

Share in total power generation(right axis)

7,000

40%
35%

6,000

30%

5,000

25%

4,00020%

3,000

15%

2,000

10%IEEJ © 2019

North America
Source: BP Statistics

EuropeAsia & Oceania Middle & EastAfrica

2020

2015

2010

2020

2015

2010

2020

2015

2010

2020

2015

2010

0%

2020

02015

5%

2010

1,000

World

Note: Large-scale hydro is included.

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NZE scenario of IEA
 Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) of IEA requires 62,000 TWh of RE in
2050 (RE=88%, VRE=68%), 9 times the current scale. The 80% of additional RE comefrom wind and solar PV. Battery should also be largely deployed.
Cumulative Capacity: GW

Global RE Power Generation in IEA NZE(TWh)Hydro

70,000

Geo & Bio

WindSolr

Share in total power generation(right axis)

60,000600

14,500

90%

Wind

620

8,300

Hydro

1,300

2,600

Biomass

150

640

40%

Others

22

610

30%

Battery*

11

3,100

60%
50%

30,00020,00020%

10,000IEEJ © 2019

Solar PV70%

40,000

10%
2019

2020

2030

2040

Source: Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, IEA

2050

2050

100%
80%

50,0000

2019

Others0%* The world pumped-storage hydro is120GW in 2019

Note: Large-scale hydro is included.

2Challenges in large-scale deployment of RE in Japan 330~350TWh in 2030 by the current and the additional stronger policies
 Toward 2050 is unknown horizon. A variety of challenges face, kW and kWh.

？

500

Right axis

100

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

0IEEJ © 2019300

Securing lands
Securing sea area

Left axis


500
400
200

OthersSine qua nonBalancing and inertia
Economics

100
02046




600

kW challenges

2044

200

2042

300



700

Nationwide transmission
lines
Energy storage anddemand side measures2040

current and additional
possible stronger policy

900
800

kWh challenges

2038

400

TWh2050

GW

On-shore wind
Geothermal
Power generation

Solar PV (mega)
Biomass
Hydro (large)

2048

Solar PV (residential)
Off-shore wind
Hydro (S&M)

Source: Assumed by discussions in Councils of METI

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Policy vector through 2030

IEEJ © 2019

Current Measures

Probable Stronger Measures

Solar PV

More than annual 1.5 GW of FITapproval







Wind

On-shore: 1.3 GW/year of FIT-approval
Off-shore: 1.0 GW/year of zone
selection

 Deregulation for environmental assessment(10MW to 50MW)
 Grid strengthening

Geothermal

Present FIT-approval Acceleration of ongoing projects
 Technologies to increase & stabilize steam
flowHydro

Present FIT-approval Optimization of existing plants

Biomass

Present FIT-approval Updating biomass fuel supply target

Zoning for RE
Installation to public buildings
Repurposing agricultural land
Revising rules of grid connection
ZEB/ZEH
Rule making for PPA

Source: Committees for RE of METI4

IEEJ © 2019

Challenges toward 2050: how to find sites
Options

Challenges

Solar PV(groundmounted)

 Utilization of desolated farmland,
unknown-owner land, local
government land

 Rule-making
 Cost of leveling/preparing the desolated
farmlandSolar PV(roof-top) Obligation/incentives to newlybuilt houses
 Obligation to public buildings(19GW of potential)

 New installation method for existinghouses. Development of lighter PV cells
 Roof space restrictionWind Utilization of security forest zone Rule-making

Geothermal Shortening lead time by further
deregulation

 Opposition from local residents and hot
spring businessHydro Repurposing flood-control dams topower plants
 Repowering Further interior land, high cost ofsmaller-scale

Biomass Expected decrease in biomass fuelimport price Development and utilization ofdomestic resources Sustainability of biomass

5Challenges toward 2050: replenishing the retired Replenishment of the retired capacity is required to realize net increase.
 Measures to promote replacement should be made.
 Repowering is also an option.
Required Annual Additional Capacity2031~2050

Cumulative Retired Capacity during2031~2050
Biomass, 4Geothermal,0Off-shorewind, 2On-shorewind, 9Hydro(S&M), 2Solar PV(residential),
17GW/year

百GWNet increase

Replacement

1098765432IEEJ © 2019

Solar PV(mega), 6110Note: RE is assumed to be 50%~60% in power generation.

6Challenges toward 2050: economics
 LCOE of mega-solar PV in 2030 will be JPY 8~11/kWh, lowest among power generation
options (METI’s committee), but cannot reach the target JPY 7/kWh. LCOE of the offshore wind will be JPY 26/kWh, which is far higher than the target JPY 8~9/kWh.
 Grid integration cost should also be evaluated, including cost required for inertia
decrease issue.
Larger-scale of VRE =Increase in Grid Integration cost

Solar PV FIT-level
Auction (min.)Auction (avg.)(JPY/kWh)50

Auction (max.)
FIT

LCOE of PV: JPY 7/kWh4030

How lower theLCOE towards
2050?

2010

March-50

March-40

March-30

March-20

April-10

0

IEEJ © 2019

Grid integration cost←←More renewables←←
More renewables

Source: Matsuo, et. Al., “Estimation of 2050-Carbon-Neutral”, Advisory Council for METI, June,
2021.

7Challenges toward 2050: nationwide transmission lines Masterplan for Nationwide Transmission Line (June 2021) shows that large part ofcurtailed VRE cannot be saved only by nationwide transmission lines expansion in 50%60% VRE scenario and that demand side measures, battery and Power to Gas areneeded.
TWh

VRE share600

RE shareCurtailment ratio

60%

VRE after curtailed

500

50%

42%

400

40%
39%
30%

300

Benefit/cost= 1.07 ~ 1.35

IEEJ © 2019

Solar PV =On-shore wind=
Off-shore wind=

76GW
11GW
30GW

10%

4%

VRE after TR

0%

VRE before TR

VRE before TR

Producible VRE

VRE after TR

VRE before TR

VRE after TR

VRE before TR

Producible VRE

VRE=30GW

Producible VRE

2%

09%

4%

Producible VRE

11%10020%

17%

VRE after TR

200

VRE=45GW

VRE=45GW (D)VRE=50%~60%

1.13 ~ 1.44

1.29 ~ 1.53

0.95 ~ 1.21

76GW
11GW
45GW

76GW
11GW
45GW

304GW
44GW
45GW

In “VRE=45GW (D)”scenario, more VREs are
deployed nearby electricity
mass-consuming region.

Note: “Masterplan for Nationwide Transmission Line”

8A variety of energy storage are already there Already-existing thermal energy storage capacity at demand side is huge.
 Storage capacity of gas network (storage tank and linepack) is also remarkable.
Existing Energy Storage Capacity in Japan (2020)
GWh

Power to PowerPower to Mobility

1,000Power to Gas

 Usable for lowtemperature heat
demand Distributed

 LDV
 VtG

800

Power to Heat

600

800

 Existing wellestablishednetwork Decarbonizinggas

400
200
0150

140
1
Pumped storage Battery (grid)hydro35Battery(distributed)

BEV(2019)

Thermal energystorageGas network(2019)IEEJ © 2019

Storage capacity is expressed by physical maximum capacity, not taking into account of the availability.
Note: Based on; Committees of METI, DOE Global Energy Storage Database, JEMA (The Japan Electrical Manufacturers’ Association), New Generation Vehicle Promotion Center,JARIA (The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association), HPTCJ (Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan) , Statistics of Machinery (METI), Gas
Statistics.

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Repurposing coal-fired power plants
 Repurposing of retiring coal-fired power plants for energy storage facility
 Not only battery, but synchronous energy storages are expected to mitigate grid inertia
decrease issue; compressed/liquified-air energy storage and Carnot-battery that may beable to use steam turbines of coal-fired power generation.
Battery Capacity Potential using
Coal-fired Power Plants
1510(GWh)

NaS equiv

LiB equiv

Turbine building

50
1,500
1,000

IEEJ © 2019

Location

Description

Elverlingsen,
Germay2018

 Battery for balancing at retired
coal-fired power plant Reuse of BEV battery Daimler, Mercedes-Benz
Energy, Getec Energie, The
Mobility House
 9MW/9.8MWhNSW,Australia
2021

 Battery installing at plannedto-retired coal-fired power
plant in 2032 (2,880MW) Surplus electricity to battery
 Origin Energy 700MW×4h~1960 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Total(GWh)

NaS equiv

LiB equiv

Whole site

5000Cases~1960 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Total

Note: Horizontal axis represents vintage of coal-fired power plants

10Concerns on critical minerals supply
 The global demand of critical minerals like lithium will increase, due to battery and BEV.
Concerns on economic security by higher-dependency on suppliers like China.
 Other options should be on the table; vanadium RedOx flow battery, Power to Gas.
 “Energy Storage Best Mix”, based on technology performance and mineral supplysecurity

IEEJ © 2019

Global Critical Mineral Requirement towards Decarbonization

Source: ”The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions”, IEA

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Energy System Integration (Sector Coupling) Energy System Integration (Sector Coupling) contributes to expansion of accommodation
capacity of renewables, which means minimizing required energy storage capacity.
 Power to Gas (PtG) allows city gas and mobility sector to use renewables. Electrolyzers
play a role of balancing in the power grid.
Comparative Hourly Demand Scale
250

Energy System Integration by Power to Gas

GW, GJ/sCHP

200Electricity

Increase of electricity

H2Electrolyzer

12:00

0:00

12:00

0:00

100

12:00

0:00

150Industry

CO2Gas infrastructure

City Gas(decrease by electrification)

50

1211109876543

12Electricity by BEV(50 million of BEV)

0IEEJ © 2019

CN_CH412

How to redevelop/develop related-Industry
 It is not sustainable to focus only on deployment of renewables (lessons learnt fromsolar PV by FIT in Japan). Redevelopment and development of related-industry arerequired.
 Venous industry, reuse and recycle, is also required with an aim of material security

Solar PV

Redevelopment of industry
Recycling of mass-disposal of solar PVpanelWind

BiomassIEEJ © 2019

Domestic resource utilization
Collaboration with forestry
CO2 from biomass for synthetic fuelproduction

Industry development
Recycling of mass-disposal of blades

Energy Storage

A variety of energy storage should beconsidered.
Reuse and recycling of battery

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Summary

IEEJ © 2019

 RE large-scale deployment beyond 2030 faces a number of challenges
 Harmonization with environment and consensus with local residents
are essential
 Besides nationwide transmission lines expansion, discussion on Energy
System Integration is also needed.
 A variety of energy storage technology. Analyses on energy storage
mix based on techno-economic characteristics and critical minerals
supply security are needed.
 Existing infrastructure and facilities should be used efficiently.
 For domestic economy, redevelopment and new development of RErelated industry is required.
 Reuse and recycling industry will be needed, preparing for massdisposal of RE facilities and supply risk of critical minerals for energy
storages.
Contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp

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