Cyclone SIDR over Bangladesh
Mid November 20007

Country Report:
Bangladesh - GEOSS/AWCI“Demonstration Project”

Md. Abdul Quadir, MoD, Bangladesh
Dr. Bilqis Amin Hoque, EPRC
Md. Abdul Mannan, BMD
Md. Mafizur Rahman, Ph.D., (Presenter)
Professor, Dept. of Civil Engg.
Bangladesh Univ. of Engg. & Tech. (BUET)The 3rd ASIAN WATER CYCLE Symposium
2-4 December, 2007
Beppu City, Oita Prefecture, Japan

Strategic Plan for Bangladesh Reference to GEOSS/AWCIIntroduction• The Global Earth Observation System for Systems (GEOSS) is anumbrella project including about 60 countries and 40 internationalorganizations.
• Ministry of Defence, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
has taken the initiative to be the GEO member of Bangladesh.
• Now Bangladesh is one of the GEO member countries.
• In this respect a strategic plan is required to communicate with GEO,
local government, make plan, prepare funding, communicate withinternational organizations, and nominate representative for GEOSS
meetings.
• Asian Water Cycle Initiatives (AWCI) is the forum to develop regional
cooperation in solving water related problems. Because GEOSS/AWCI will
cover different branches of hydro-meteorological phenomena and sectorsof social benefit of the country.
• Therefore, BANGLADESH-GEOSS/AWCI is expected target involvement ofdifferent disciplines like Climate sector, Agriculture sector, Food &Disaster sector, Health sector and Water resources sector.

SOCIETY

Applications

SCIENCE

Information
RainfallObservation
Computation

Forecasting/Warning

Observations
RainfallLand coverElevation

Response

Flood Estimates
Model Parameters
Elevation
Roughness
Soil moisture

Temperature

Risk Management/Mitigation

Vulnerability
BuildingsInfrastructure

CloudsGroundwater
Risk
AssetsInfrastructure

Capacity Development

MICRO SCALE

MACRO SCALE• All
thetoppriority sectors inthe country areinter-related and ingettingbenefitfrom all of them acommon nationalcommittee
isformed.

BANGLADESHGEOSS/AWCIFood & Disaster• The
nationalcommittee will ask
the member in therespective sector
to prepare work
plan and working
group
includingthe specialist in
their branches.

National Committee+Working Group

Water Resources

HealthClimateAgriculture

Fig. 1. Top priority sectors in the country for
GEOSS/AWCI project in Bangladesh.

The national committee for GEOSS/AWCI in Bangladesh
1Mr. Kamrul Hasan, Secretary, Ministry of Defence (MOD), Chairman
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka

2Brigadier General Shah Md. Sultan Uddin Iqbal, BIRPROTIK, CoJoint Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Government of the Chairman
People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka (Md. Abdul Quadir,Representative)3

Mr. Md. Nazmul Huda Khan, ndc., Chairman, SPARRSO, Member
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka

4Dr. Md. Shahjahan Biswas, Director General, Health Services, Member
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of thePeople’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka

5Dr. Samarendra Karmakar, Director (Current Charge), MemberBangladesh Meteorological Department, Government of the Secretary
People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka

6Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam, Associate Professor, Department of Member
Physics, Bangladesh University of Engineering andTechnology (BUET)

7Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman, Professor, Department of Civil
Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering andTechnology (BUET)

8Dr. Bilqis Amin Hoque, Executive Director & Head of Research, Member
Environment & Population Research Centre (EPRC)

9Dr. Wais Kabir, Director, SAARC Agricultural Centre (SAC), Member
Bangladesh, Dhaka

Member

10 Mr. Md. Sazedul Karim Chowdhury, Superintendent Member
Engineer/Director, Processing and Flood Forecasting Circle,
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), Ministry ofWater Resources, Government of the People’s Republic ofBangladesh, Dhaka
11 Mr. Md. Abu Sadeque, PEg., Director (Admin), Bangladesh Member
Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Ministry of Food andDisaster Management, Government of the People’s Republicof Bangladesh, Dhaka
12 Mr. Sardar M. Shah-Newaz, Principal Specialist, Irrigation Member
Management Division, Institute of Water Modeling (IWM), NewDOHS, Mohakhali, Dhaka.

Title: "To develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system for flood
monitoring and forecasting in the Meghna river basin in Bangladesh".

Component Project: GEOSS/AWCI in Bangladesh (GEOSS/AWCI-BD)

Activities of GEOSS/AWCI - BD
A. Group Members:i) Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam, Associate Professor, Departmentof Physics, BUETii) Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman, Professor, Department ofCivil Engineering, BUETiii) Dr. A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Assistant Professor, IWFM,BUETiv) Md. Abdul Mannan, Meteorologist, BMDv) Md. Quamrul Hasan, Assistant Meteorologist, BMDvi) Md. A. K. M. Zeaul Hoque, Senior Specialist, IWM
B. Working Activities:a) Rain-gauges data collectionb) Radar data collectionc) Flood monitoringd) Flood forecastinge) Feasibility study

Introduction

Bangladesh is one of the heavy rainfall countries (Fig. 1).
So, intensive sounding and multiple Radar/Doppler radarobservations in order to understand the structure ofmesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are necessary.
Additionally, there have been very less statistic studies onthe MCSs. Some statistical analyses of the structure,duration time, top height, and diurnal variation of theMCSs in Bangladesh by using the observation results arealso expected through GEOSS/AWCI.

Fig. 1. Rainfall climatology in the south
Asian region. Rainfall averages for 5years from 2000 of TRMM V6 3B42
data and heavy rainfall observed inand around Bangladesh.

 Not only that, Sylhet region
gets heavy rain within a shortspan of time, which caused
flash flood during the premonsoon
andsouthwest
monsoon seasons.

Heavy RainfallZone Upper
airobservations(Rawinsonde Observations) arecarrying out in MAHASRI
Project during the pre-monsoon
andsouthwestmonsoon
seasons in Bangladesh.
These data will be very usefulfor the study of different
hazardous weather events ofthis region.

Improve Weather ForecastingOnce the estimation of rainfall using
satellite and model data in the upper
catchments (GMB basins of Fig. 2) is done
for real time, the information may be used
for the flood monitoring and forecasting
purposes. It may also be useful in weather
forecasting of the country.

Fig. 2. The GBM (Ganges Brahmaputra and Meghna) basins.

General Information of Meghna Basin
A. Boundary Extent
Extent, Total (India + Bangladesh) ,Min

Longitude: 900 30’, Latitude: 230 10’Max

Longitude: 940 25’, Latitude: 250 40’

Extent, Bangladesh PartMin

Longitude: 900 30’, Latitude: 230 15’

Max

Longitude: 920 32’,Latitude: 250 15’

Basin Outlet

Chandpur (close to District town)

Longitude: 900 40’, Latitude: 230 10’

B.Basin Area
Total (India + Bangladesh): 61,021 Km2Bangladesh Part: 20,530 Km2

Flood monitoring and forecasting in Meghna Basin ofBangladeshCountry: BangladeshRiver basin name: Meghna
Basin Area: 20530 km2 inside Bangladesh out of 61021 km2 including India
1. Background, targeted issues and objectives Natural disasters like floodand drought occurs almost every years in Bangladesh.
¾ Employment of satellite data to estimate rainfall for a wide area isimportant for monitoring flood and drought situations.
¾ The Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS, currently MTSAT)
datasets can play an important role in providing rainfall informationfor Bangladesh especially in Meghna basin where shortage ofobservational data hampers proper monitoring of flood situation andutilization of forecasting techniques.
¾ The Meghna basin is proposed for pilot study of flood forecasting
using a Hydrological model because in recent years (2004 and 2007)
the occurrence of flood in this basin hampers the development of thecountry.
¾ To drive the Hydrological model rainfall in the upper catchment isessential that can be obtained from GMS datasets.

Reasons for selection of Meghna River Basin In Bangladesh there are about 230
rivers including 3 major rivers(Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna).
 Trans boundary rivers affectclimatic conditions of the country.
 Earlier frequency of flood year wasless but recently it is higher (1954,1961, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004
and 2007).
 Due to the establishment of certain
infrastructural facilities such asdigitized rain gauges, Doppler radar(with Japanese assistance ) Discharge and water level dataalso available in this area.

Meghna River BasinMeghna River Basin, a closure view

Models, GIS, Data Integration System, Prediction System•Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method is to beusedtoestimate

precipitationfromGeostationary

Meteorological Satellite (GMS, currently MTSAT) datasets.
•In CST algorithm the cloud coverage is converted intorainfall using the respective convective and stratiform rainrate.
•The rainfall calculated by CST will be calibrated with therain-gauge (GR) rainfall obtained at different regions ofBangladesh• On an average over 12 stations, daily GR and CST
calculated rainfall were 14 mm and 14.5 mm respectively.
•This indicates that CST is more reliable method incalculating surface rain from satellite data.
•The similar technique will be applied for GMS real time
data in Meghna basin and its upper catchment areas.
• The output will be gridded in 0.1° meshes to use as theinput of Hydrological modeling.
• The model outputs will be analyzed for projecting
inundation map and to provide the Governmentorganization FFWC (flood forecasting and warningcenter) of the country in dissemination to the end users.
• The employment of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) isalso in consideration.

Available Infrastructure
There are 4 radar systems of Bangladesh
Meteorological Department existed in Bangladesh(Fig. 3). At present, 3 radars are in functioning andone more radar (in the southwestern side of thecountry) is committed to replace with Doppler one
very soon. Beside of this radar network, one more
new Doppler radar at the Meghna Basin is proposedand expected to be installed by the year 2008. At
present, there are 34 First Class Observatory and 10
PBO (Pilot Balloon Observatory) exist in Bangladesh.
There are more 11 new First Class Observatory
proposed to set in different locations throughout thecountry.

27

Fig. 3. Coverage of BMD radarsystems.

26

INDIA

LATITUDE(N)

25BANGLADESH

24

INDIA

23

INDIA
22

BAY OF BENGAL
21

2088

Flood 2000

Flood 2004

89

9091
LONGITUDE(E)9293

Flood 2000

Flood forecasting with local data input• Flood inundation in the Meghna basin will be predicted with the helpof a Geomorphology based hydrological model.
• Appropriate spatial parameterization scheme with the physically
based description of the hydrological processes will be modeled.
• 50m resolution DEM data will be incorporated for the model. Thiswill determine the runoff generation and the flow accumulation in thecatchments. The parameters that will be determined with the input
data are elevation & slope, river channel
network andgeomorphology properties.
• Sub-basin delineation will also be performed with the DEM data.
• Locally available soil map will be incorporated in the simulation
model.

• Soil units, saturation hydraulic conductivity, saturation soil moisture will
be items in the list of soil data that will be used in the simulation model.
• Digital land use data will be collected and will be utilized in the model.
• The land use data will be used to determine the max. canopy
storage, ,max. surface storage and vegetation coverage.
• A thorough field investigation will be made in order to obtain vegetation
indices data.
• The maximum leaf area index will be the parameter that will be used in themodel.
• Spatially distributed rainfall data will be added as already mentioned.
• Data on the river cross section will be used in simulation of flood forspecific seasons.
• River stream flow, as observed at different location by Bangladesh Water
Development Board will be used to validate the output of the model.
• The model parameters will be calibrated based on the data of BWDB.
• Finally the flood inundation map of the basin area will be developed forthe months of July, August and September based on the real data andsome of the historic flood events.

MISSION AND VISION:• The mission of this project is to facilitate hydro-meteorologicalaspect in Bangladesh both in observational and research activities
for sectors of social benefit like Agriculture, Climate, Food andDisaster Management, Health and Water resources.
• Climate change and natural hazards do not maintain the politicalboundary of the country. Therefore, work with international
community like GEOSS/AWCI project is the better way in solving theclimate and water related issues for Bangladesh.
• The GEOSS/AWCI will provide benefit for the peoples around theworld by improving our ability to monitor, understand, and predictchanges to the Earth.
• The international cooperation along with the national developmentof new monitoring, assessing, and predicting environmental changes,
will enable development of capabilities to predict drought and flood,
prepare for weather emergencies and other natural hazards, plan andprotect crops, manage coastal areas and fisheries, and monitor airand water quality and other socio-economic aspects of the country.

LINKS TO INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES:• Hydro-meteorological phenomena are not confined to the localgeography. Sometimes there are long-term and large-scale eventsoccurred.
• Therefore, only local information may not be enough to solve thehydro-meteorological problems. For example, flood is a very common
natural disaster in Bangladesh and we know that about 93% of flood
water comes from outside the country.
• Therefore, we need information from the upper catchment which isout of Bangladesh.
• So, cooperation with international community through this projectwill help in getting information from neighboring countries.
• Therefore, link-up with international community is one of the top
priorities of the nation.

WORK PLAN AND WORKING GROUP:Climate sector: The story of climate change is now not
the imagination, it is the fact that global climate ischanging and peoples have to be prepared themselves toprotect from the impacts of climate change. Huge scopeis there to develop climate related sectors in the country.
Agriculture sector: Respectable member in the national
committee is requested to prepare the work plan andworking group including specialists in this branch.
Water resources sector: Respectable member in thenational committee is requested to prepare the work planand working group including specialists in this branch.

Food and Disaster Management sector: Respectable
member in the national committee is requested to prepare
the work plan and working group including specialists inthis branch.
Public Health sector: Respectable member in the nationalcommittee is requested to prepare the work plan andworking group including specialists in this branch.
DATA COLLECTION:

Data collection is the pre-requisite for the research in any
field of interest. The metadata will be collected in eachsector and derived data will be the key resources forother sectors, especially in the application purposes.
Details of the data collection are to be cited in the work
plan of each sector.

DATA MANAGEMENT:
Data management is one of the important parts in the research andapplication community.
¾ Data will be archived and stored in digital format as well as
metadata (data of data) format.
¾ In the archive system data collected in the local observation andgathered from the international community will be there.
¾ These data will be within the browsing facilities with some terms
and condition for the users defined the purposes where to be used.
¾ The archive will be maintained in data category, data quality check,data disciplinary and data gallery. This will enable the users toeffectively locate data and information relevant to their needs.
Main part of data management activity should be done by theBANGLADESH GEOSS/AWCI data center which is consisted of adata management core group and sub-groups for satellite, model
data, etc. In addition, linkage with some international and regional
centers and sub-centers should be established to share their work.

Data management group:
1.

Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman, Professor,Civil Engg. Dept., Bangladesh University ofEngineering and Technology (BUET)

Teamleader

2.

Dr. A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Assistant Professor,
IWFM, Bangladesh University of Engineering andTechnology (BUET)

Member3.

Md. Abdul Mannan, Meteorologist, Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD)

Member4.

Mr. Zakir Hossain, Institute of Water Management(IWM), New DOHS, Mohakhali, Dhaka

MemberData management components:
Data management
components:

ofGEOSS/AWCIwillhavethefollowing

1) Data control: Target data includes observational (operational andexperimental) and processed data. Quality control should be done as
an obligation of data provider. Appropriate meta data should beprovided with data.
2) Data opening: Data are provided fundamentally by on-line,
sometimes with DVD/CD. All the data eventually will be opened to theinternational research community. Turn-around period for data
release should be applied for experimental data.
3) Data center: Data center should operate data server and web
pages for data dissemination.
4) Other issues: Assistance in data rescue work is also important asa part of data management activity.

Specific Needs of Capacity Building• Real Time flood forecastingObtaining improved RS data (BMD),
Integration of the real-time data for flood forecasting
on a public domain software (BUET)• Development of Flood inundation scenarios

Hazard mapping, Vulnerabilityassessment, Risk assessment (BUET)
Teaching manual• Data Management
Universal strategy for data management, archivingand retrieval

Capacity Building Programs (CBP)••••

Rainfall Downscaling and Forecast(UNU)
Data Integration Service (CEOP)
Flood Hazard Map Training (ICHARM)
Flood Simulation (UT)

• Roving seminar model -> Regional
Three participants (University Faculty, Implementing official,Policy maker)

External funding needed

More Emphasis is on the• Case study modules (manuals):
At least three (University Faculty, Implementing official, Policymaker)

for period of three weeks
External funding is required• Web based learning :Approximately 10-15
Facilities of high speed Internet communication
Local funding can be provided

Budget for GEOSS/AWCI-BD:i) Rain-gauges maintenances and radar operation costii) Powerful computers with printers- one for Monitoring andanother for Forecastingiii) Data storage devicesiv) Hydrological modelsv) Papers publication/presentation costvi) Miscellaneous

CONCLUSIONS:¾ The BANGLADESH GEOSS/AWCI will provide the nation with aunique platform to identify and solve the climate and water related
problems.
¾ This Strategic Plan defines the purpose and vision of the priority
sectors of the country.
¾ It outlines a practical approach with a societal benefits focus,
identifying key issues in integration and governance.
¾ This plan highlights specific opportunities developed for near-term
action by the participating organizations.
¾ An evolving system, taking into account emerging technologies
and scientific advances in and around the country, is necessary tomeet the changing needs of society.
¾ Implementing the BANGLADESH GEOSS/AWCI offers an exciting
opportunity to make permanent improvements in local capacity todeliver specific benefits to our people and our economy.

Shock of Destruction and Thoughts for future