Journal of Global Resources

Volume 5 (01)January 2019
ISSN: 2395-3160 (Print), 2455-2445 (Online)

Page 83-89

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CLIMATE CHANGE: A TREND ANALYSIS OF WESTERN RAJASTHAN
Nidhi Kaushik
Department of Geography, University of Rajasthan, Jaipur (Rajasthan) India
Email: nidhikaushik07@yahoo.com
Abstract: Being a state with varied climatic conditions, Rajasthan still needs lot of groundresearch to understand the climatic trends at local level. This inhibits the decision making andsustainable risk reduction strategies. The present paper intends to fill up some of the researchgap. The paper shows the analysis of temporal variation in mean maximum and minimum
temperature of the month of January and June and rainfall conditions with an assemblage ofmonthly data for a period of 40 years (1971-2010) in western Rajasthan. Regarding trends intemperature and rainfall the temperature series showed a rising trend while the rainfall does notshow a clear trend but is clearly shows increase in extreme weather events which has clear
implication on human life. The data used in trend analysis is assembled from Indian water portal
and Indian Meteorology Department and Irrigation department of Rajasthan. This article also
highlights the need of a network of baseline stations for climatic studies.
Key words: Spatio-temporal trends, Climate change, Drought frequencies, Arid region
Introduction
Since the beginning of industrial revolution human activities have led to unprecedented changes
in the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere. There is now credible evidence to show thatsuch changes carry significant potential to influence earth’s climate (Houghton et al., 2001).
However, owing to complex interactions within the climate system it is difficult to differentiate thecharacteristics of climate change associated with natural and anthropogenic forcing. From a
pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm), the global atmospheric concentrationof carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas—GHG) has increased to 399 ppm in 2014. Similarly,
concentrations of other potent GHGs like methane and nitrous oxide have also increased
considerably on a global scale. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, majority of the increase in the observed global
average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely linked to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The report concludes that visible
human influences have now extended to other aspects of climate including ocean warming,
continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. Projectedscenarios also indicate rise in global mean temperatures in the range of 1.1 to 6.4oC by 2100
(IPCC, 2007). The analysis from global instrumental records of over one and half century haverevealed that the earth has warmed by 0.74 (0.56 to 0.92) o C during the last 100 years, with 12
out of the last 13 years being the warmest. According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, therise in temperature by the end of the century with respect to 1980–1999 levels would range from
0.6oC to 4.0oC.
Study Area
The study area is located in the north-western part of India between 24°31′ to 30°12′ northlatitudes and 69°15′ to 76°42′ east longitudes (Ma). Total geographical area 2,08,751 km2. It issurrounded by Punjab in north, Gujarat in south, Pakistan in west and Aravalli in east. Its length83

is 690 km from north to south and width is 300 km from east to west. The western arid region
includes 12 districts i.e. Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Churu, Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Nagaur, Bikaner,
Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalor, Pali and Jaisalmer (Fig.1). The study area can be divided into two main
physical regions viz. i) Arid Region and ii) Semi-Arid Region.
Figure 1: Key Map

Objective and Methodology
Climate change studies in Rajasthan have been very few thus inhibiting decision making andsustainable risk reduction strategies. This section intends to analyze and explore the findings
from the trend study done for the variability in temperature and rainfall data of last 40 years(1971-2010) in the above said regions and also a compilation of so far studies done by various
researchers in the same region. The work is based on the data obtained from the India
Meteorology Department and Indian water portal. The main objective is to find out thepattern/trend of variation in temperature and rainfall in last four decades. The analysis was done
for the months of June and January which reflects the peak summer and peak winters in the
study regions. Graphs were prepared by plotting climate data of 12 meteorological stations
situated at headquarter of each district to understand the general pattern using various aspectsof the data. The temperature pattern is analyzed on the basis of its three forms i.e. mean annual
temperature, maximum mean temperature, and minimum mean temperature.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Average Temperature Variation:
In the Western Rajasthan during last 40 years (1971-2010) the annual mean temperature has
shown significant change and it has risen by 2.4oC for the month of June and 1.4oC increase forthe month of January. For better understanding 4 graphs (fig 2) consisting 3 districts in each

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36.4
35.3

35.8
35.2
35.5

34.8

33.5

34.5
34.1
33.3

33.4

33.8

33.5

34.3
33.1

32.7

1990

2000

Ganganagar

31.2

Bikaner

Jaisalmer

Hanumangarh

Jalore

1971

2010

1980

1990

2000

34.9
34.0
33.4
33.1

33.9
33.3

31.8
31.9

33.7

34.8
34.3
33.9
32.8
31.4

32.5

32.1

2010

35.4

34.5

33.5

33.9
33.9

33.0

31.9

34.3
32.6

32.0

31.4

32.1
30.0

Jhunjhnu

31.3

1971

33.3

33.7
32.1

Barmer

1980

33.7

32.7

32.3

31.8

1971

34.2

35.4

36.0
35.2

34.8

35.9

1980

1990

2000

Pali

Jodhpur

Sikar

Nagaur

Churu

1971

2010

1980

1990

2000

2010

Figure 2: District Wise Average temperature (0C) variationgraph is plotted for 12 districts to depict the scenario. Comparing the averages of periods 19711980 and 2000-2010 it has been observed that the temperature rose from average temperatureof 32.2o C in 1971 to 34.6o C in 2010. Though the temperature seems to be constant in between
1990 to 2000 there is a significant increase of almost 10C in the 2001-2010 time periods. On theother hand, when the temperature variation for the month of January was analyzed, it wasobserved that maximum variation was in the decade of 1980-1990 (2.20C). Afterwards, thetemperature for January month is constantly declining and in 2010 it was recorded 160C only.
Among the districts, maximum variation for the month of June was recorded for Nagaur
and Sikar (30C and 2.90C) and lowest variation was observed for Jaisalmer and Ganganagar(1.70C and 1.80C) as depicted in figure 2. Similarly, figure 3 suggests that the variation for themonth of January was highest in Jaisalmer and Barmer (2.40C and 2.10C) and lowest was
witnessed in Pali and Nagaur (0.90C and 1.00C). Based on the available information we can saythat the Average Temperature variation is relatively high in the month of June for almost all the
districts of Arid Region as compared to the variation in the month of January. Also, we can saythat the region witnessed a common trend of increasing temperature in the region for all the
districts and for both winter and summer seasons. In the coming pages further analysis of
Maximum Average Temperature and Minimum Average Temperature for June and January
month will help us to in understanding the fluctuations/variations for the Arid Region.

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16.5
15.9
13.7
13.1

14.7

19.0
16.9

17.4
14.9

16.0

13.9

14.3

20.1
18.0
14.8

18.3
16.7

17.6
17.1
14.3

14.7

18.6

17.8

12.8

15.1

15.5

14.5

15.9
13.9

13.8

BarmerGanganagar

Bikaner

Jaisalmer

Hanumangarh

1971

1980

1990

19.5
17.2
16.2
14.1
13.7

16.8
14.6
16.7
14.5

2000

Jalore

2010

1971

1980

1990

2000

18.2
15.8

18.2
15.7
15.1

15.2
15.3
13.6

17.0
15.3
14.8

16.2

18.7
16.3

14.1

2010
17.0

15.0

Pali
Sikar
Churu

1971

1980

1990

2000

16.1

17.1

16.7
14.6

Jhunjhnu
Jodhpur
Nagaur

1971

2010

1980

1990

2000

2010

Figure 3: District Wise Average temperature (0C) variation for January month
Maximum Average Temperature:
For Arid Region the Maximum Average Temperature was also analyzed for the month of June
and January and for the same period of 1971-2010. The Data shows that Maximum Average
Temperature has increased considerably for June and January in last four decades. The
Maximum Average Temperature for June has increased from 38.60C in 1971 to 40.80C in 2010,
an increase of 2.30C in the given period. Similarly, for the month of January the Maximum
Average Temperature has risen from 23.50C in 1971 to 24.50C in 2010. A close look on district
wise pattern suggests that the variation ranges from 2.90C to 1.60C with 8 districts out of 12
districts recorded an increase of more than 20C. Among all the districts Nagaur and Sikar had
the highest increase of 2.90C in the years of 1971-2010, while the lowest Maximum Average
Temperature was recorded for the month of June in Jaisalmer and Ganganagar (1.6 0C and1.80C). This increase indicates towards the days with maximum temperature have increased
and is responsible for the high evapotranspiration and will lead to the drier climate, depleted
ground water level and decrease in soil moisture etc.
For the month of January as stated above the Maximum Average Temperature has
increased by 1.00C during the period of 1971 to 2010 in the Arid Region comprises of twelve
districts. In one of the interesting findings Ganganagar is the only district in the region in any ofthe months having recorded a decline in temperature. In the January of 1971 the temperature of
Ganganagar was recorded 25.30C and only in 1980 it went up to 26.60C and afterwards there iseither a decline or status-quo in the Maximum Average Temperature and in 2010 it was 24.70C,
thus a -0.60C decline in the time span of four decades. Among the districts Jaisalmer andBarmer had a high variation of 2.20C and 2.00C in the given period while the temperature of Pali
increased by only 0.70C. Though not much change was recorded in the January month for mostof the district, where out of twelve districts six districts had a variation of less than 1.00C and
one district had a negative growth of -0.60C.

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The Minimum Mean Temperature
The Minimum Average Temperature of the study regions for the month of June and January forthe same period of 1970-2010, is also depicted district wise and for Arid Region also. The bothscenarios show an increasing trend in this section as well. The district wise map of June shows
the increment by 3.00C to 1.80C in different district. The overall minimum temperature of theregion is also showing an increased trend in the month of June and January. Comparison of1971 and 2010 shows that the temperature of the month of June has rose from 25.9 0C to
28.30C. Among the districts Nagaur (3.00C) and Sikar (2.80C) recorded highest change in termsof variation recorded for June month, while Jaisalmer (1.90C), Ganganagar (1.80C) and
Hanumangarh (1.80C) recorded the least. This means that not only the summers are being
more hot but the winters are also being hotter, which will directly impact on the Rabi crop
pattern and reduce the crop yield as the seed maturing time will change. For the month ofJanuary, the Minimum Average Temperature the temperature has increased by 1.60C from1971 to 2010. In 1971 the temperature was recorded 6.00C and in 2010 the temperature was
7.60C, at the same time Jaisalmer witnessed highest change of 2.40C and Pali 1.00C was lowest
with respect to the change of temperature in the month of January.
The overall temperature scenario is showing an increasing trend in the arid region ofRajasthan both in summers and winters as well. This variability in the temperature is
responsible for many related sectors change such as increase in surface temperature will leadto lacking soil moisture, depleted ground water, increased no. of hotter days, change in crop
pattern and its yield. The increased temperature will directly increase the evaporation rate of thesurface and the hydrological cycle of the western districts will be changed. The temperature risefor January is more consistent and the fluctuations are not so abrupt as compared to June. This
rise in temperature is mainly attributed to global rise in GHG concentration but along with thatthe local factor influencing the temperature rise is increased cloud cover during winter months.
Rainfall Variability
Analysis of rainfall pattern and its variability is crucial for this region. Thus, a detailed analysis of
the average rainfall trends for 12 districts of the study area for period of 40 years (1971-2010)
explains the variability of the average seasonal precipitation pattern.
District wise average annual rainfall variability
The district wise rainfall pattern is shown as each graph reflecting three districts, this is done forbetter visibility and understanding of the district. The study explored rainfall pattern of five years
spreading over in 40 years or four decades, the unit of measurement was millimeter (mm) for
every district. It suggests that except in year 2000 Churu witnessed consistently increased
rainfall and it has almost doubled in all these years from 298 millimeter in 1971 to 635 millimeterin 2010. On the other hand in 1990 Barmer district received extraordinary rainfall of 748
millimeter as compared to 89 millimeters only in the year of 1980. Though in Bikaner the trend
was quite fluctuating in nature and rainfall has increased to 409 millimeters from 241 millimetersin all these years.
There is a threefold increase in Ganganagar i.e. from 121 mm in 1971 to 366 in 2010and similar trends were recorded in the adjacent district of Hanumangarh where rainfall has
risen from 121 mm in 1971to 547 in 2010, a sharp increase of almost five times. While
Jaisalmer received 108 mm in 1971, slightly increased by 143 mm in 1980, and dropped by 88
in 1990 and again rose by 149 and 309 in 2000 and 2010 respectively. The trend for this Arid
region suggests that in the year 1990 most of the district’s received more than average rainfall,87as also seen in the case of Jalore and Jodhpur where rainfall was 1047 and 815 millimeter in1990 as compared 173 and 269 millimeter in 1980 and 311 and 273 millimeters only in the year
2000. Though the rainfall for all the three districts has seen considerable increase as it has
increased from 368, 535 and 269 millimeter in 1971 to 535, 828 and 511 millimeter in 2010 for
Jalore, Jhunjhunu and Jodhpur respectively.
In Nagaur district 467 mm rainfall received in 1971, which goes down to 228 mm andagain rose by 461 in 1990, and received 431 mm in 2010. While Pali in 1971 surprisingly did notreceived any rainfall in the whole year, and suddenly rose up by 1022 mm in 1990 and 465 mm
in 2010. In Sikar district 575 mm rainfall received in 1971, which dropped by 198 mm in 2000
and again rose by 896 mm in 2010.The analysis suggests that the rainfall pattern in the arid
region received extraordinary rainfall in the year of 1990 across all the twelve districts, but at thesame time average rainfall for all the district has doubled in the past four decades.
A preliminary glance on the data suggests that the average annual rainfall in the region
has increased but when analyzed closely we can say that the in-spite of the increased rainfall
the distribution is not evenly spread because of many reasons. Western Rajasthan is likely toface increased extreme events and the analysis also showed a delayed onset of monsoon
resulting in increase in post monsoon rainfall. In one of the studies, Dr. Roy analyzed the rainfall
variability over arid Rajasthan and found that the pre-monsoon rainfall ranges between 2-9 mm,
the districts of Hanumangarh, Churu, Ganganagar, Jhunjhunu and Sikar received the highest
rainfall during the season. The cumulative variation varies from 62 percent to 125 percent,which illustrates that the temporal variability of rainfall is very high during this season. The
variability is highest towards the districts of Jalore, Sirohi, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Udaipur,
Dungarpur and Banswara while it declines towards north, north eastern and eastern districts. To
the west of the Aravalli ranges in the rain shadow districts of Bikaner, Barmer, Jaisalmer,
Jodhpur and Nagaur the rainfall ranges within 60-40 mm. As the rainfall amount spatiallydecreases the temporal variability and unpredictability of rainfall amount increases. The
cumulative variation in the western side of the Aravalli Mountains is a little above 20 percent but
it increases to around 52 percent in the desert districts further west. At the same time the postmonsoon season receives an average rainfall ranging between 2 mm to 30 mm. The IPCC
also reported increases in precipitation at a global level, however, in the present study,
precipitation was found to increase in some urban centers and decrease in other centers. Thismay be due to changing land use/land cover, and several other anthropogenic activities at a
local scale (Gowda et al., 2008).
Conclusion
The climate over Western Rajasthan is showing definite signs of change with uneven andfluctuating rainfall pattern and increase in temperature and aridity. The arid climate belt has
shifted eastward intensifying the process of land degradation and causing desertification. The
water resources are scarce, adding to vulnerability of region towards climate change. The
overall temperature scenario in the arid region is showing an increasing trend both in summers
and winters as well. This variability in the temperature is responsible for many related sectors
change such as increase in surface temperature will lead to lacking soil moisture, depleted
ground water, increased no. of hotter days, change in crop pattern and its yield. The increased
temperature will directly increase the evaporation rate of the surface and the hydrological cycleof the western districts will be changed. The temperature rise for January is more consistent andthe fluctuations are not so abrupt as compared to June. This rise in temperature is mainly
attributed to global rise in GHG concentration but along with that the local factor influencing thetemperature rise is increased cloud cover during winter months. Though the average annual88rainfall is not showing any significant trend over the region and are erratic but overall scenario
and various climate model studies showing a decreasing trend over the region. The highvariability in onset of monsoon rains have resulted in rising rainfall trends in most of the districtsin the non-monsoon period.
Acknowledgement
The author is extremely thankful to Prof. (Retd) R.N. Mishra, Dept. of Geography, University ofRajasthan for his guidance and valuable remarks throughout the research work. I would also
like to show my gratitude towards the eminent researchers whose work helped me tounderstand the various aspects of the issue.
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