Marine Policy 88 (2018) 315–322

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Marine Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol

Operationalising access to oceanic ﬁsheries resources by small-scale ﬁshers
to improve food security in the Paciﬁc Islands

T⁎

Johann D. Bella,b, , Joelle Albertc, George Amosd, Christopher Arthurd, Michel Blance,
Don Bromheadf, Scott F. Herong,h,i,j, Alistair J. Hobdayk,l, Andrew Hunte, David Itanom,Philip A.S. Jamese, Patrick Lehodeyn, Gang Liug,h, Simon Nicolo, Jim Potemrap,
Gabriel Reygondeauq, Jason Rubanie, Joe Scutt Phillipsr, Inna Seninan, William SokimieaAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
WorldFish, PO Box 438, Solomon IslandsdVanuatu Fisheries Department, Port Vila, Vanuatu
ePaciﬁc Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New CaledoniafAustralian Fisheries Management Authority, Box 7051, Canberra BC, ACT 2610, AustraliagCoral Reef Watch, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USAhGlobal Science and Technology, 7855 Walker Drive, Suite 200, Greenbelt, MD 20770, USAi
Marine Geophysical Laboratory, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australiaj
CSIRO Land and Water, ATSIP Building, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australiak
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, 7000, AustralialCentre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, AustraliamFisheries consultant, 689 Kaumakani Street, Honolulu, HI 96825, USAn
Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal, Ramonville Cedex 31526, FranceoInstitute of Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, ACT 2617, AustraliapSchool of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USAq
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canadar
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australiabc

A B S T R A C T
Maintaining the level of ﬁsh consumption in Paciﬁc Island countries recommended for good nutrition as the
populations of coastal communities grow, and as coral reefs are degraded by global warming and ocean acidiﬁcation, will depend on small-scale ﬁshers catching more tuna and other large pelagic ﬁsh. Concerted researchand development by regional agencies shows that nearshore ﬁsh aggregating devices (FADs) provide one way forsmall-scale ﬁshers to make this transition. Although the full potential of FADs remains to be assessed, several
investments to optimise their use have been identiﬁed. These investments include pinpointing the locations
where FADs are likely to make the greatest contributions to nutrition of coastal communities, integrating use of
FADs with other livelihood activities, and improving the designs of FADs. Where Paciﬁc Island countries havecommitted to developing nearshore FAD programmes, additional investments are needed to operationalise theuse of FADs, particularly in cyclone-prone countries. These investments include: 1) training in safe and eﬀective
FAD-ﬁshing methods; 2) developing reliable ways for forecasting when tuna, and other large pelagic ﬁsh (e.g.,mahi mahi and wahoo), are likely to associate with FADs and delivering this information to ﬁshers eﬀectively;
and 3) storing spare FAD materials, boats and ﬁshing gear in cyclone-proof containers so that FADs lost during
cyclones can be replaced quickly. When combined with measures to sustain catches of coastal demersal ﬁsh,
operationalising the use of nearshore FADs is expected to help several Paciﬁc Island countries attain the foodsecurity goals of regional policy frameworks.

1. Introduction
In 2015, Paciﬁc Island leaders signed the Regional Roadmap for⁎

Sustainable Paciﬁc Fisheries to maintain or improve the contributions of
the region's rich tuna resources to their economies and societies [24].
An important goal of the Roadmap is to increase the availability of tuna

Corresponding author at: Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.008
Received 18 February 2017; Received in revised form 1 November 2017; Accepted 5 November 2017
Available online 21 November 20170308-597X/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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food crops [9,62]. Forecasting when safe conditions for ﬁshing around
FADs coincide with times when target ﬁsh species are expected to occur
in coastal waters will also assist communities to optimise their various
livelihood activities.
The third investment centres around development of systems forstoring spare FAD materials, boats and ﬁshing gear in cyclone-proof
containers so that FADs lost during natural disasters can be replaced
quickly. In the aftermath of cyclones, the many demands for (often
limited) national shipping can cause long delays in the replacement of
FADs. Unless the materials needed to deploy FADs are stored locally byprovincial ﬁsheries oﬃcers or communities, it is unlikely that lost or
damaged FADs will be replaced in time to yield ﬁsh catches when they
are needed most – during the months required for newly planted crops
to be harvested following natural disasters.
Here, we describe the speciﬁc activities that will be needed for eachof these investments. We use Vanuatu as a case study because it has arapidly growing population, a need to increase access to tuna for foodsecurity [6,56] (Supplementary materials), and is one of the PaciﬁcIsland countries aﬀected most frequently by cyclones [43]. Vanuatu has
also been an early adopter of FADs [2] and as an archipelagic nation
with many remote island communities (Fig. 1) is well placed to beneﬁt
from the three proposed investments.
The ideas presented here should also apply to other Paciﬁc Island
countries where FADs are needed to help provide an important sourceof protein for coastal communities, especially those countries prone tocyclones.

for local consumption by 40,000 t per year by 2024 to help maintainthe food security of rapidly growing populations. This important regional policy framework is supported by the New Song for Coastal
Fisheries: Pathways to Change [58], which was approved by the 11th
Ministerial Forum Fisheries Committee Meeting in 2015. The New Songalso recognises the need to use the region's tuna resources to ﬁll the gap
between the ﬁsh needed for food security and sustainable harvests fromcoastal ﬁsheries.
The main ways of increasing access to tuna for local consumption
have been identiﬁed [10]. Making better use of the small tuna andbycatch oﬄoaded in Paciﬁc Island ports during transhipping operations
by industrial purse-seine ﬁshing ﬂeets should provide more ﬁsh for
rapidly-growing urban populations. Improving the distribution of tunacanned in the region should increase access to ﬁsh for communities ininland areas. And assisting small-scale ﬁshers to catch more tuna andother large pelagic ﬁsh species should make ﬁsh more readily available
for coastal communities.
Research and development by the Paciﬁc Community (SPC)1 overthe past two decades indicates that an eﬀective way to assist small-scaleﬁshers to catch more tuna is to expand the use of nearshore ﬁsh aggregating devices (FADs) [3,16,57,59].
Building national networks of nearshore FADs should not only increase the availability of ﬁsh in the near term, it is also considered to bea key adaptation to climate change. In particular, increased use of FADs
should enable communities to obtain the ﬁsh they need for good nutrition as the productivity of coastal demersal ﬁsheries declines due todegradation of coral reefs caused by higher water temperatures andocean acidiﬁcation [7,8,12,46].
Several studies have demonstrated that catch rates of small-scaleﬁshers can be improved when they ﬁsh around nearshore FADs
[13,53–55]. Based on these encouraging results, considerable thought
has already gone into identifying the actions needed to optimise the useof nearshore FADs for local food security [11]. These actions are necessary because not all FADs anchored in nearshore waters have had thefull endorsement of local communities, or increased access to ﬁsh forfood security when they were requested by communities [1,15](Supplementary materials). The necessary actions include, for example,
pinpointing locations where FADs are likely to make the greatest contributions to nutrition of coastal and island communities, integrating
the use of FADs with other livelihood activities, and improving thedesigns and eﬀectiveness of nearshore FADs [1,4,11]. As important asthey are, however, these actions do not directly assist people to catchﬁsh around FADs, or provide them with an eﬀective way of replacing
FADs lost during cyclones of for other reasons, such as wear and tear[4].
Three additional investments are needed to assist small-scale ﬁshers
to operationalise the use of FADs. The ﬁrst involves training small-scaleﬁshers in safe and eﬀective FAD-ﬁshing methods, especially where they
have limited experience ﬁshing oﬀshore [4]. In particular, there is aneed to raise awareness that more precautions are required whenﬁshing around FADs, which are typically located 2–5 km beyond thefringing or lagoonal barrier reefs where most small-scale ﬁshing operations have traditionally taken place. The lives lost at sea during the
rapid development of the Alia longline ﬁshery for South Paciﬁc albacore in Samoa in the 1990s [27] is a sobering reminder of what canhappen when small-scale ﬁshers are not accustomed to operating further oﬀshore.
The second investment is the development of tools for forecasting
favourable conditions for catching yellowﬁn and skipjack tuna, andother large pelagic ﬁsh (e.g., wahoo and mahi mahi), around nearshore
FADs and delivering this information eﬀectively to small-scale ﬁshers[21]. This is important because coastal and island communities have
many competing demands on their time, e.g., production of subsistence1

2. Training in safe and eﬀective FAD-ﬁshing methods
In Vanuatu, small-scale ﬁshers who use FADs fall into two categories: 1) subsistence ﬁshers operating from paddling canoes catchingﬁsh relatively close to shore (1–3 km from the coast and in depths of
200–500 m), principally for their own households; and 2) commercial(artisanal) ﬁshers using motor boats who typically catch ﬁsh around
FADs further oﬀshore (5–7 km from the coast, and in depths of
500–1000 m) for sale at local markets or in Port Vila and Luganville. Itis estimated that there are ~16,000 small-scale ﬁshers in Vanuatu(Supplementary Table 1) and that by the end of 2017 more than 50nearshore FADs will be deployed at ~30 locations (Fig. 1,
Supplementary Table 1).
To improve the safety and eﬀectiveness of their ﬁshing operations,both canoe and motor boat ﬁshers need: 1) meteorological forecasts ofwind speed, wind direction, atmospheric pressure, wave height andocean current velocity to evaluate the risks associated with ﬁshingoﬀshore in small craft; 2) advice about safety procedures, which safety
equipment to carry, and how and when to use it; and 3) training in thebest ways to catch target ﬁsh species around FADs at diﬀerent times ofyear.
2.1. Meteorological forecasts
The Vanuatu Meteorological Service (VMS) provides regular, shortterm, forecasts of atmospheric conditions (e.g., wind speed, pressure)and related oceanic conditions (e.g., wave height)2 essential for themarine weather bulletins needed to inform small-scale ﬁshers about thesafety of boating in coastal waters. VMS also issues bulletins andwarnings for high winds, cyclones, and high seas. However, VMS needs
support to 1) customise this information to the needs of canoe andmotor boat ﬁshers, 2) routinely transmit customised bulletins to eachprovince on all types of mobile devices, and 3) ensure that communities
know how to interpret the information correctly.
For customising the information to meet the needs of small-scale
2
These forecasts are delivered by VMS via its web site (http://www.meteo.gov.vu/)
and by radio several times each day.

www.spc.int.

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Fig. 1. Map of Vanuatu showing the exclusive economic zone, the six provinces, the locations whereﬁsh aggregating devices (FADs) were installed close
to the coast for small-scale ﬁshers (blue circles) prior
to 2017, and the locations where FADs were installed
during 2017 (yellow circles) (see also Supplementary
Table 1). (For interpretation of the references tocolour in this ﬁgure legend, the reader is referred to
the web version of this article.)for small-scale ﬁshers should extend to identifying and dismantling any
blockages to the uptake of safer boating practices.

ﬁshers and assisting them to interpret it correctly, VMS will need support to organise workshops for ﬁshers to interact with VMS staﬀ toexplain what kind of information they need and the temporal andspatial scales on which they need it; and to check that ﬁshers are interpreting the information they receive correctly. For regular transmission of customised bulletins, VMS will need technical support toconvert bulletins to digital form, and then send them out via a subscription service.

2.3. Training in eﬃcient FAD-ﬁshing methods
The most successful techniques for catching tuna and other large
pelagic ﬁsh around FADs from canoes involve handline ﬁshing in mid
water, e.g., drop-stone ﬁshing, rod-spreader jigging and ‘palu-ahi’ﬁshing. Other eﬃcient methods also include trolling at low speed, driftline ﬁshing for mahi-mahi, and ‘sabiki’ rig jigging for baitﬁsh. Smallscale commercial ﬁshers operating from motor boats have a greater
range of ﬁshing methods to choose from. In addition to those describedabove, they can use vertical longlining, small-scale horizontal longlining, ‘ika-shibi’ ﬁshing, sub-surface or deep trolling, and Hawaiianstyle hoop-net ﬁshing [47,48].
Based on the experiences of Fisheries Development Oﬃcers at the
SPC, training in boating safety and eﬀective FAD-ﬁshing methods ismost eﬀective with a group of 10–15 ﬁshers at a time. For both categories of small-scale ﬁshers, the training usually takes 5–10 days andshould be done once the FAD has accumulated enough ﬁsh (i.e., once it
has been in the water for at least one month).
‘Train the trainers’ approaches, where regional or local technicalexperts train an initial group of trainers (national/provincial ﬁsheriesoﬃcers and key members of ﬁshers’ associations), are needed to increase the uptake of safe and eﬀective FAD-ﬁshing methods by coastal
and island communities [4]. This places the onus on countries to allocate the ﬁnancial resources needed to 1) arrange for a core set ofﬁsheries oﬃcers and representatives of ﬁshers’ associations to be
trained in safe and eﬀective FAD-ﬁshing operations; and 2) support thisgroup of trainers to conduct similar training for ﬁshing communities
throughout their country.

2.2. Safety
Safety at sea for small-scale ﬁshers centres on training in the relevant procedures, such as informing people where they are going,
when they plan to return, who is on board, etc., and ensuring thatﬁshers have appropriate safety equipment and the knowledge to use it.
However, the relatively high cost of safety equipment means that it islikely to be beyond the reach of many small-scale ﬁshers, especiallysubsistence ﬁshers. Communities can usually overcome this problem byrequesting funds from development agencies to purchase multiple setsof safety equipment and establishing custodian systems for issuing it to,
and retrieving it from, small-scale ﬁshers each day. Appropriate custodians of safety equipment include the community women's groups or
local ﬁshers’ associations. Although the type of safety equipment
needed by subsistence canoe ﬁshers diﬀers from that required bycommercial ﬁshers in motor boats operating further oﬀshore(Supplementary Table 2), use of safety equipment is always made easier
when it is assembled into a ‘safety grab bag’.
Initiatives to improve boating safety for small-scale ﬁshers shouldtake into account that having safety equipment available and theknowledge about how and when to use it is no guarantee that safer
boating practices will be adopted (reluctance to wear a life jacket bysome ﬁshers is a case in point). Investments in improving safety at sea
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and local scales – at present, only experimental chlorophyll-a products
based on biogeochemical and statistical models are available for limitedareas, e.g., coastal bays [35,49] and coasts [19]. Forecasts are also
expected to be improved by integrating knowledge (including traditional knowledge) about the distribution of tuna related to seasonalpatterns of migration, and to moon and tidal phases.

3. Forecasting favourable conditions for catching large pelagicﬁsh around FADs
Much of the information needed to develop reliable forecasts of theoccurrence and abundance (hereafter ‘distribution’) of tuna and otherlarge pelagic ﬁsh in the coastal waters of Paciﬁc Island countries is now
available in open-access, global databases (Supplementary material).
Below, we describe: the main types of information needed for building
such ﬁsh distribution forecasting tools; the suitability and availability offorecasting tools; the need to validate the reliability of forecasts; andfeasible systems for disseminating forecasts to small-scale ﬁshers. This
discussion focuses on tuna because the information on habitat requirements and preferences for yellowﬁn and skipjack tuna [37,50] is
more advanced than for other large pelagic ﬁsh expected to associatewith nearshore FADs, e.g., mahi mahi and wahoo. Nevertheless, theforecasting approaches outlined here should also be applicable to otherﬁsh species targeted by small-scale ﬁshers around nearshore FADs oncethe environmental conditions preferred by these species are understood
more fully.

3.2. Suitability and availability of forecasts
The short-term forecasts of atmospheric conditions (e.g., wind,pressure) and related oceanic conditions (e.g., wave height) describedin Section 2.1 are typically issued at ocean-basin to local scales out toseven or 10 days. However, most physical features of the ocean, including SST, generally vary on longer time scales than atmosphericvariables [20,40], permitting forecasts with longer lead times. For
ocean features where forecasts are not presently available, like chlorophyll-a concentration, long-term average seasonal patterns (climatologies) and the anomaly from, and variability about, the average state of
the ocean feature can be used to indicate how conditions are likely tovary in the near future. Nevertheless, care should be taken to consider
how consistent such patterns are because they can vary substantially inspace and time [64]. Typically, the reliability of forecasts of environmental variables decreases with increasing lead-time – nowcasts andshort-term forecasts have greater accuracy than predictions for several
weeks or months into the future.
Small-scale ﬁshers in Vanuatu would beneﬁt most from forecasts ofocean variables at relatively small spatial scales, and short temporalscales, that pinpoint suitable conditions for aggregation of tuna incoastal waters several days or a few weeks in advance.
Short-term SST forecasts (lead times up to seven days), such as thosefrom OceanMaps3 available on a 10-km grid for the Australian region,
have much potential for identifying thermal conditions likely to attract
tuna into coastal waters. Until these OceanMaps forecasts are available
for Vanuatu, longer-term, global SST forecasts (several weeks tomonths), such as the coarse resolution modelling (~2° × 0.5–1.5°) from
POAMA,4 could be used. However, a more promising option for SST
forecasts for immediate application in Vanuatu is NOAA's Climate
Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) (resolution: 0.5° × 0.5°) [51]. Since
2012, NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has been using CFSv2 forecasts for SST(Fig. 2a) to predict the risk of mass coral bleaching on a weekly basis up
to four months in advance5 [22,41], based on the magnitude and timingof stressful warm temperatures (Fig. 2b). Importantly, the spatial resolution and data grid layout of the SST forecasts from CFSv2 can distinguish SST patterns across the six provinces of Vanuatu (Fig. 2). Given
that the deployed FADs deﬁne the location of ﬁshing operations in eachregion, the primary guidance from the forecasts is to provide smallscale ﬁshers with information on the timing of favourable conditions.
The CFSv2 output can provide eﬀective and timely information on thelikelihood of tuna occurring around FADs in the coastal waters of Vanuatu, based on known temperature preferences of yellowﬁn andskipjack tuna.
The skill of the CFSv2 SST prediction varies seasonally and with thelength of lead-time,6 however. For example, at a lead-time of up to one
month, SST predictions around Vanuatu are more reliable for spring(September-November; correlation, r > 0.8) than for summer (JanuaryMarch; r < 0.7) (Fig. 3). As lead-time increases, reliability of the predictions decreases, and is lowest from February to May. Overall, weekly
forecasts of SST for Vanuatu are most reliable when made for periods nogreater than two months in advance.
The addition of other important variables, like chlorophyll-a

3.1. Information needed for forecasts
Identiﬁcation of the environmental conditions preferred by tuna(and other large pelagic ﬁsh) is a key pre-requisite for development oftools for small-scale ﬁshers that can forecast, and ‘nowcast’, conditions
likely to attract tuna close to the coast. Both forecasting and nowcasting
are important – forecasting allows ﬁshing trips to be planned, whereas
nowcasting conﬁrms that forecasted conditions have eventuated.
Much information on the environmental preferences of skipjack andyellowﬁn tuna is already available from observations by industrial
ﬁsheries and research using electronic tags [37,50] (Supplementary
Material) at a range of spatial scales. At the largest (ocean-basin) scale(1000s of km), climate drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) inﬂuence the distribution of tuna by modifying, for example,
sea surface temperature (SST) [26,34,36]. Distributions of tuna are also
aﬀected by variation in ocean features at regional scales (100s of km),such as shifts in currents [29,66], and at local scales (10s of km), suchas formation and movement of eddies and fronts [31,45,66]. In addition, tuna aggregate at small scales (100s of metres) in response tobathymetric features like seamounts [15,18,30,44]. To forecast andnowcast conditions when tuna are likely to occur in nearshore waters
where FADs are installed, information relating ocean features and the
distributions of tuna species is needed at all these scales.
The most common variables used to identify environmental conditions preferred by tuna and predict the availability of suitable habitat
are SST, chlorophyll-a concentration (a proxy measure for productivity/
food supply for tuna), atmospheric pressure, and current speed anddirection. Other useful variables, at least at regional and local scales,
include mixed layer depth, eddy kinetic energy, presence of frontal
systems, and prey distribution [31].
Sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a have been used to describe historical distributions of tuna at regional and local scales[19,23,50]. More importantly, short-term changes in SST, atmosphericpressure, current speed and direction, eddy characteristics, and windspeed and direction have been applied to forecast local occurrence andabundance of tuna. For example, real-time (next day), short- (< 7 days)
and medium-term (up to 3 months) forecasts of distribution based on
SST have been developed to: assist commercial ﬁshers to catch southern
blueﬁn tuna in South Australia [23]; manage bycatch in eastern Australia [32]; identify the best locations for recreational ﬁshing for mahi
mahi on the east coast of Australia [14]; provide commercial ﬁshers
targeting albacore in Spain's Basque country with daily maps of habitat,
re-parameterised each evening with the previous day's catch [5]; andforecast the distribution of bigeye tuna in Indonesia [38]. Such forecasts are expected to improve further once predictions of changes inchlorophyll-a concentrations become routinely available at regional

3

http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/.
http://poama.bom.gov.au/.
5
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php.
6
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2HCST/metrics/
rmseCorl.html.
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Fig. 2. a) NOAA Climate Forecast System v2 predicted sea surface temperature in the Vanuatu region for 13 March 2016 from the forecast issued on 24 January 2016; b) management
product describing the highest predicted level of coral bleaching likelihood during the four-month period leading up to 13 March 2016, issued on 24 January 2016. The six provinces of
Vanuatu are distinguished in both panels out to the boundary of the exclusive economic zone (black lines).

The skill of forecasts of tuna distribution in coastal waters can beassessed through hindcast performance. This involves correlating historical forecasted model values of environmental variables with historical observed values in both space and time, and assessing accuracy withseveral statistical techniques [60,61]. In the case of SST, satellite dataor re-analysis products can be used [65]. In general, skill is higher forforecasts of ﬁsh presence based on physical conditions, such as SST,
than for forecasts that integrate physical and biological data [32]. Thisis because the response of ﬁsh to physical conditions is mediated byphysiological and behavioural factors, such as the size of the ﬁsh (e.g.,larger tuna can tolerate cooler waters) or the reproductive life stage(e.g., spawning tuna may seek particular environmental conditions thatare more limited than their usual range, or be willing to tolerate conditions that are unsuitable for feeding).

3.3. Validating forecasts
Ultimately, catch or other scientiﬁc data are needed to validate any
tool designed to forecast the distribution of these large pelagic ﬁsh. In
the absence of data needed for validation, full release of forecasts
should be delayed until there is a high level of conﬁdence that the information is useful and reliable. Limited release of forecasts may beappropriate, however, to help evaluate experimental products or toguide the collection of validation data. In such circumstances, communication among project partners and small-scale ﬁshers regarding
the experimental nature of forecasts is essential.
There are good prospects for obtaining catch data to validate forecasts of tuna distribution in the coastal waters of Vanuatu. During 2017and 2018, catch-per-unit-eﬀort (CPUE) data are being collected from
FADs distributed throughout much of Vanuatu using the ‘Tails’ databasedeveloped by SPC7 (Supplementary material). Also, since August 2016,
some CPUE data have been collected from artisanal ﬁshers in several
provinces (Tafea, Sanma, Penama, Tafea and Malampa) by the Vanuatu
Fisheries Department using Tails. A positive correlation between thesecatch data and forecasts of good ﬁshing conditions would provide a ﬁrst

Fig. 3. Variation in the correlation coeﬃcient of SST predictions by the NOAA Climate
Forecast System v2 for the Vanuatu region with season and model lead-time.

concentration, to produce an integrated tool has the potential to further
enhance the skill of forecasts [63]. Any such improvement would depend on the accuracy of predicted variables, as well as how strongly
they are correlated with tuna aggregation. For the example of chlorophyll-a concentration, development of forecasts based on coupledbiogeochemical models for the Paciﬁc Island region is likely in the next
few years (R. Matear, pers. comm.). The development of stochastic
prediction tools [64] can be undertaken immediately. Integrating predictions of ocean conditions preferred by tuna, outlined above, requires
additional investment to develop, calibrate and operationally produce
multi-factor forecasts and nowcasts of tuna distribution in the coastal
waters of Vanuatu (and other Paciﬁc Island countries).
Investments are now needed to integrate the information outlined
above to provide forecasts and nowcasts of tuna distribution in the
coastal waters of Vanuatu (and other Paciﬁc Island countries) based on
predictions of ocean features expected to match the environmental
conditions preferred by tuna.

7

en.

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Available online: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=spc.ofp.tails&hl=

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countries that are already in the process of expanding the use ofnearshore FADs to meet the food security goals of regional policy frameworks – the Regional Roadmap for Sustainable Paciﬁc Fisheries and the
New Song for Coastal Fisheries.
There are, however, a few factors that could temper the beneﬁts of
the recommended investments in forecasting and nowcasting tools. The
ﬁrst is the possible eﬀects of industrial ﬁshing on the catches of smallscale ﬁshers and the need to incorporate the proximity of industrial
ﬁshing operations into the forecasts of tuna distribution in coastal
waters. Although the time needed for tuna to re-aggregate following
localised depletion by industrial ﬁshing is poorly understood, reduced
catch rates have been reported in artisanal ﬁsheries following nearby
industrial purse-seine ﬁshing operations [28]. Analyses of tagging datafrom areas where purse-seine ﬁshing does and does not occur in the
Paciﬁc Island region also indicate that industrial ﬁsheries may reduce
local densities of tuna [39]. In addition, recreational ﬁshing competition data infer that catch rates for striped marlin can be aﬀected byindustrial longline ﬁshing [33].
Integrating industrial ﬁshing activity with variation in key environmental variables to produce better short-term forecasts of local
tuna abundance will necessitate near-real-time access to information on
industrial ﬁshing operations. In the case of Vanuatu, however, this may
not be of such importance – the potential for signiﬁcant interaction
between industrial and small-scale tuna ﬁshing is presently very low
because industrial ﬁshing for tuna is limited largely to longline operations well outside the 12 nm industrial ﬁshing exclusion zone. Analysisof the main locations of previous longline ﬁshing within Vanuatu's
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) shows that most activity occurred welleast of the archipelago, between 50 and 100 km from the coast(Supplementary Material, Supplementary Figs. 2 and 3).
The second consideration is that recent modelling of the eﬀects ofclimate change on the distribution and abundance of tuna shows thatthe biomass of yellowﬁn tuna is likely to decrease in the Vanuatu EEZ in
2035 and 2050, but that the biomass of skipjack tuna is likely to increase (Supplementary Fig. 5, Supplementary material). When the expected eﬀects of increased ﬁshing pressure over time are combined withthose of climate change, the patterns are in the same direction, although the decreases in biomass for yellowﬁn tuna are projected to begreater, and the increases in biomass for skipjack tuna are projected to
be lower (Supplementary Table 3).
Modelling the eﬀects of climate change on the preferred habitats of
two other large pelagic ﬁsh commonly caught by small-scale ﬁshers
around nearshore FADs in Vanuatu, mahi mahi and wahoo(Supplementary Fig. 6, Supplementary material), indicates that both ofthese species are likely to decrease in abundance over time, with theeﬀects expected to be greater for mahi mahi than for wahoo(Supplementary Table 3).
The implications of these projections are that the relative abundances of the four species around nearshore FADs can be expected tochange in the future, and that the focus for forecasting will eventuallyneed to be on the species projected to increase in abundance, skipjack
tuna.
Ultimately, eﬀective forecasting will not only need to incorporate
the projected eﬀects of climate change but also local-scale eﬀects of
FADs on the behaviour of large pelagic ﬁsh species. Individual-based
simulation models [52] (Supplementary material, Supplementary
Fig. 7) provide an approach for exploring the possible interactions between FAD placement and ﬁsh behaviour.
The third factor is that expected decreases in the costs of acoustic
equipment and using 3G networks should eventually enable an interface to be established for transmitting data from acoustic buoys attached to nearshore FADs directly to small-scale ﬁshers, allowing themto assess the amount of ﬁsh associated with FADs on smart phones andtablets (Supplementary material). Eventually, this innovation would be
expected to supersede the need for a tool to nowcast tuna distribution
for those islands with good connectivity to the internet. However,validation of a forecasting tool, which can be improved with formal
skill assessment when a longer time series is available [32].
The rapid development and relatively low cost of acoustic buoys
ﬁtted to the drifting FADs used by industrial purse-seine vessels [17,25]
provides another avenue for obtaining the data needed to validate atool for forecasting tuna distribution for the beneﬁt of small-scaleﬁshers in Vanuatu. These acoustic buoys are equipped with echosounders or sonar and transmit estimates of ﬁsh biomass associatedwith FADs to a depth of 80 m [42]. Although these systems are not yet
able to identify the ﬁsh species associated with FADs, purse-seine crew
are now experienced at predicting the presence and relative abundanceof tuna through interpreting signal strength and diurnal vertical behaviour. Therefore, attaching echo sounder buoys to representativenearshore FADs and transmitting the information to the Vanuatu
Fisheries Department has considerable potential to validate a forecasting tool by correlating estimates of ﬁsh biomass associated with the
FAD with conditions predicted to be favourable for tuna and otherpelagic ﬁsh species.
3.4. Disseminating forecasts to small-scale ﬁshers
Once the forecasting tool has been validated and placed on the web,either as part of the VMS suite of products or via the Vanuatu
Meteorological and Geohazards Division, it can be accessed by users via
mobile phone networks. Indeed, the stage is set for uptake of forecastsof tuna distribution in Vanuatu because the national 3G network provides reasonable coverage in ﬁve of the six provinces and more than
50% of the mobile phones in use are now smart phones.
4. Rapid replacement of lost FADs
A key lesson from Tropical Cyclone Pam (Category 5) that struck
Vanuatu in March 2015 has been that it is very diﬃcult for national
governments to replace FADs quickly in the aftermath of devastating
natural disasters – it took 18 months before FADs began to be replaced.
New policies and practices are needed to ensure that FADs can be replaced within weeks of being lost during cyclones so that communities
have access to nutritious ﬁsh before emergency food aid comes to an
end and new crops mature.
A practical way to do this is to assist communities in Vanuatu toprepare for rapid recovery after future cyclones by securing 40′ shipping containers on all major islands to provide cyclone-proof storage forspare FADs materials, and as a place where small-scale ﬁshers can keepboats and ﬁshing gear safe when a cyclone is approaching. Once thecyclone has passed, the boats can be used to deploy the FADs and to ﬁsharound them. The Vatuika FADs designed by the Vanuatu Fisheries
Department [2] are ideal for this purpose because they can be deployedfrom a small boat.
However, the logistics involved in installing and securing 40′ containers on remote islands can be diﬃcult and costly in archipelagic
nations like Vanuatu. To install such cyclone-proof storage in remotelocations, Vanuatu and other Paciﬁc Island countries prone to cyclones
could request assistance from Australia or New Zealand. Both nations
have naval vessels, such as HMAS Canberra (Australia) and HMNZSCanterbury (New Zealand), purpose-built for humanitarian assistance.
These vessels could be used to deliver and install the containers during
the course of naval exercises in the region.
5. Discussion
The three investments described here are expected to create opportunities for small-scale ﬁshers to increase their access to tuna andother large oceanic ﬁsh species in safe and eﬀective ways. They are also
expected to make small-scale ﬁshers more resilient to the devastatingeﬀects of cyclones and help them adapt to the impacts of climatechange on coastal ﬁsheries. Together, these investments should assist
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coastal communities that depend on tuna and other large pelagic ﬁsh
for food security.

nowcasts should continue to be useful for communities in more remotelocations with limited connectivity. The beneﬁts of short-term tuna
distribution forecasts are expected to continue for communities at all
locations.
Once nowcasting and forecasting tools have been developed and areready to distribute for use by small-scale ﬁshers, we recommend targeted monitoring of catches around FADs to assess the impact of thetechnology, preferably using the ‘before vs after, impact vs control’
sampling design recommended previously for assessing the beneﬁts ofnearshore FADs [11]. In Vanuatu and other Paciﬁc Island countries
where the ‘Tails’ application (Supplementary material) is used tomonitor coastal ﬁsh catches, this type of sampling could possibly bedone by using catch data from FADs at several (at least n = 8) communities before the technology is released and then comparing thosedata with catches made around FADs by at least four communities that
do, and do not, use forecating and nowcasting tools, or acoustic devices.
The three investments recommended for operationalising the use of
FADs will be facilitated if Paciﬁc Island countries are able to implement
supporting policies. Examples of suggested supporting policies are
summarised below.
Link ﬁsheries development and sea safety to ensure that national FAD
programmes focus not only on building the infrastructure for food security, but also on providing thorough training in safe boating practices
for all coastal ﬁshing communities. Consideration should also be given
to removing import duties on safety equipment needed by small-scaleﬁshers.
Strengthen 3G and 4G connectivity for rural areas so that as manysmall-scale ﬁshers as possible can have real-time access to boating
weather forecasts and tools for 1) forecasting and nowcasting theconditions when good catches of tuna and other large pelagic ﬁsh are
likely to be made, and 2) downloading information on abundance ofﬁsh associated with FADs ﬁtted with acoustic devices.
Apply the ‘Framework for Resilient Development in the Paciﬁc’8 in waysthat assist communities to prepare for re-establishing food production,
including ﬁshing around FADs, as soon as possible after cyclones.
Revise (if needed) agreements for humanitarian assistance with
Australia and New Zealand to enable assistance to be received to prepare for coping with the devastating eﬀects of cyclones well in advance.

Acknowledgements
The concept for this manuscript was developed during the course of
the project funded by the Asian Development Bank entitled ‘Expanding
the use of nearshore ﬁsh aggregating devices (FADs) to strengthen foodsecurity and reef conservation in Vanuatu’, the project funded by theAustralian Centre for International Agricultural Research on ‘Improving
Community-based Fisheries Management in Paciﬁc Island countries’(ACIAR project FIS/2012/074), and the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation
Program-funded 'Technical Exchange in Support of Climate Early
Warning for the Marine Sector in Vanuatu'. The concept was reﬁned
further during the workshop on ‘Climate Change and Small-scale
Fisheries’, convened by the Australian National Centre for Ocean
Resources and Security and the NEREUS-Nippon Foundation at theCentre for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, in June 2016.
Constructive comments and suggestions from anonymous reviewers
enabled us to improve the manuscript. The contents of this manuscript
are solely the opinions of the authors and do not constitute a statementof policy, decision, or position on behalf of NOAA or the U.S.
Government.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the
online version at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.008.
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