AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
IIPSRIPSInstitute for International

The Japan Institute of

Research Institute for

Policy Studies

International Affairs

Peace and Security

Editorial Advisory Board:

No. 214

Akio Watanabe (Chair)
Masashi Nishihara
Yoshiji Nogami
Taizo Yakushiji

24 June 2015

Editorial Committee:
Taizo Yakushiji
Hisayoshi Ina
Tsutomu Kikuchi
Shujiro Urata andToshiro Iijima
Editor & Online Publisher:

OBAMA’S SMART RETRENCHMENT:REALISM OR WITHDRAWAL?

Toshihiro Nakayama

Yoshji Nogami
President, JIIA・ Is there a strategy?
・ Accepting the world as it is.
・ Limits of U.S. role; abandoning leadership?

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies“It reads like an international NGO’s annual report.” This was thefeedback from one expert upon perusing the Obama administration’s “NationalSecurity Strategy (NSS 2015)” released this past February. Scrutinizing thedocument provides no clear picture of how the US intends to exercise its power
or what it seeks to accomplish. The impression it leaves is one of an Obamaadministration that sees the US as now having considerably limited ability toaccomplish things. In the document’s preface, President Obama himself
stresses that what America truly needs now is “strategic patience,” a term quite
symbolic of the Obama administration’s basis stance vis-à-vis the rest of theworld.
This stance clearly rejects the idea that disorder can somehow be
contained if “American primacy” were just restored, and indeed suggests that US
overreaction could itself potentially hasten disorder.
In an interview conducted at about that same time, President Obamaargued that the world is now facing a collapse of the existing order. Calmly
addressing that topic, President Obama continued by insisting that the best theUS could do would be to slightly improve matters rather than slightly worsen
them. He then stated straightforwardly that this in no way signifies an “Americanwithdrawal” but is rather simply a realistic assessment of how the world currently
functions.
When President Obama speaks in this manner, his tone and expressions
are by no means those of an idealist. Instead, his is a thoroughly detachedperspective. The frequent criticism of President Obama as “naïve” is off-target.
President Obama readily and forthrightly acknowledges that the world isuncontrollable and the US’ ability to do things is limited at the moment, andbelieves that fact should be accepted for what it is; the US should do what it can
but absolutely not attempt what it cannot accomplish. The scope of what the US
can do should be assessed as narrowly as possible. This approach is not somuch retrenchment as realism, or perhaps even better described as a hybrid of
the two: “smart retrenchment.” At the very least, President Obama does appear
to view the world in this fashion.

http://www.jiia.or.jp/en/commentary2

AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

The rumblings of another presidential election season can already beclearly heard in the US. The American economy is in an upswing, and fiscal
conditions do not appear to be too bad. There has been clear improvement aswell in the unemployment rate, the most readily comprehensible economic
indicator at election time. The battling for position on social issues that leave
Americans confused during each presidential election cycle seems relatively
quiet this time. Accordingly, the debate will focus on what to do about thedisorder that Obama’s foreign policy has permitted and, at least on theRepublican side, how to portray a new post-Obama foreign policy approach forthe US. The Democrats will find it difficult to distance themselves from Obama’s
foreign policy, and Hillary Clinton will find this especially so.
In the meantime, President Obama seems intent on adhering to hisstance of doing what can be done and refraining from what cannot be done,
without too much concern for his legacy. The world was mesmerized whenPresident Obama articulated his vision in Cairo and Prague but, in the seventh
year of his presidency, he has adopted a thoroughly restrained realism. This
does partially resonate with the American people’s mood at the moment, but it
differs fundamentally from the role the US has assumed since the start of the20th century. What Americans think of this will be one of the key points to watch
during the upcoming presidential election.

Dr. Toshihiro NAKAYAMA is a Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Graduate
School of Media and Governance, Keio University. He also serves as an adjunctfellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs. Among his authored works isAmerican Intervention and American Ideology.

http://www.jiia.or.jp/en/commentary3