AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
IIPS

RIPSInstitute for International

The Japan Institute ofResearch Institute for

Policy Studies

International Affairs

Peace and Security(Secretariat)

Editor:No. 163.

31 October 2012

Akio Watanabe
Editorial Board:
Hideki Asari
Masashi Nishihara
Taizo Yakushiji

Online Publisher:
Yoshiji Nogami
President, JIIATHE CASE FOR LONG-TERM
ASSISTANCE FOR EGYPT
Takeji Ino
On June 30 Mohamed Morsi assumed the presidency,
an office whose authority had been severely restrictedby the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF).
Contrary to all expectations, however, Morsi in a
relatively short time pushed through a substantialchangeover in the military leadership, including theSCAF Chairman (Minister of Defense and MilitaryProduction) and the Chief of Staff, and succeeded inrestoring the authority of the president. As SCAF had
remained politically involved even after the transition tocivilian rule, its acquiescence to the new president’sdecisions gave rise to suspicions that some form ofpolitical deal had been worked out with the president.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

The fledgling Morsi administration has been compelled to steer a difficult
course in both domestic and foreign affairs, and this is not simply because somany of the demands of the January 25 Revolution are still unresolved. Theadministration is also under pressure to deal with problems created by therevolution itself, above all the economic and security issues at the brunt of muchof the public’s discontent. The revolution paralyzed economic activity and dealt asevere blow to the livelihoods of the citizenry, while the weakening of the police
and security apparatus led to deteriorating public safety throughout the country.
Although these were issues necessitating prompt attention, they were toughproblems requiring time to address and not amenable to a quick remedy.
Alongside the public’s calls for change and transformation have come growing
appeals for greater lifestyle stability, and President Morsi’s responsiveness isbeing put to the test.
The Morsi administration is beset with a number of key political issues,
from creating a new constitution to holding parliamentary and presidentialelections. With the basic framework for parliamentary and presidential electionsin the new constitution to be determined by a Constituent Assembly dominatedby Islamists such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis, attention has been
focused on the nature and progress of the efforts to draft this constitution. The
criticisms leveled by the secularists and liberals and their opposition to the firstdraft presented on October 10 once again highlighted the ideological rift. Politicalfighting over the final revisions to the draft will grow ever fiercer as the nationalreferendum scheduled for November draws near. A close eye should be kept on
how the ruling Muslim Brotherhood will seek to reconcile the serious differences
between the Salafis and the secularists/liberals.
The evolution of the constitutional drafting process makes it evident thatIslamists constitute the political mainstream in Egyptian politics, and that thesecular liberal opposition is fragmented and likely to continue being politicallyweak. Three points merit particular attention with regard to the moves made byIslamists. The first is the relationship between the Morsi administration and theMuslim Brotherhood. The second is the relationship forming between the Muslim
Brotherhood at the core of the Islamist movement and the radical Salafis. The

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

political rise of the Salafis is a phenomenon attracting notice across the Arabworld, and they are likely to become an influential element even in Egyptian
foreign affairs. Consequently, the collaboration and antagonism that develop
between these two forces merit close monitoring. The third point is the future
outlook for a new trend among political Islamists: moderate breakaway groups
from the Muslim Brotherhood garnering a certain level of support and empathy
among the younger generations and those of a liberal persuasion. Thesemoderates enjoy an advantageous position strategically among Islamists in theirability to seek out collaboration with secular liberals as well as with CopticChristians.
The pragmatic political style that President Morsi has adopted heretofore
has earned him a generally favorable assessment in public opinion polls andelsewhere, and both the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and some Salafis havebegun to show political flexibility as they become more deeply involved inpractical politics. Indeed, political flexibility is also being demanded of theminority secular liberals who have a marked tendency to adhere rigidly toprinciples, and they are expected to look to enhance collaboration and build up
their base of support with an eye to the coming parliamentary elections. One ofthe outcomes of the January 25 Revolution was a substantial expansion inpolitical participation. The provisional military government suffered repeated
failures, and the vox populi moved “from the soap box to the ballot box” to findexpression. If the diverse views of the populace are to be reflected in nationalpolitics, it is essential for the sake of Egypt’s transition to democratization that
more open political competition through elections become established practice.
The minority secular liberal political forces have an extremely important role inthis regard.
As the Arab Spring sparked upheaval across the Arab world, Egypt was
the only country with parties waiting in the wings prepared to take power and,even if political turmoil does continue over the short term, Egypt enjoys
conditions that have created relatively more political stability than in other Arabnations. Although the Arab world is likely to see still more political turbulence infuture, Egypt can be expected to resolve somewhat quickly the political turmoil

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AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

inherent during a transition to democracy. Nevertheless, the tension between
democratization and authoritarianism that has marked Egyptian politics since thedawn of the modern age is a historical legacy that weighs heavily even on anadministration supported by the Muslim Brotherhood. When providing
assistance to Egypt, Japan and the rest of the international community shouldstress a medium- to long-term perspective, and in doing so should lend a willing
ear to the wide range of opinions being expressed throughout Egypt. Informationneeds to be gathered and research conducted in a manner not overly slanted
toward the capital city of Cairo that takes into consideration the diversity ofEgypt’s differing regions and communities.

Prof. Takeji Ino teaches at Wayo Women’s University.

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