AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
IIPS

RIPSInstitute for International

The Japan Institute ofResearch Institute for

Policy Studies

International Affairs

Peace and Security

Editorial Advisory Board:

No. 211

Akio Watanabe (Chair)
Masashi Nishihara
Yoshiji Nogami
Taizo Yakushiji

01 June 2015

Editorial Committee:
Taizo Yakushiji
Hisayoshi Ina
Tsutomu Kikuchi
Shujiro Urata andToshiro Iijima
Editor & Online Publisher:
Yoshji Nogami
President, JIIAISRAEL WILL FACE SERIOUS
CHALLENGES OF ISOLATION AND
POPULATION BALANCE
Ryoji Tateyama
・ As Israel celebrated the anniversary of its
independence, President Reuven Rivlin
showed the traditional optimism that, if theJewish population of Israel were to reach 12
million, the Palestinians would decide that thebest place for them to live is Israel.
・ However, nearly all demographic statistics
predict that, if Israel continues its rule of theWest Bank and Gaza, Jews will slip intominority status by about 2020.
・ The Palestinians have already shifted the focusof their anti-occupation struggle to a strategy ofinternationalization, and they are gaining
broad-ranging support in Europe and the US,
which will likely result in further isolation forIsrael in the long run.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

Israel celebrated the 67th anniversary of its independence this past Aprilbut, reflecting the instability of the Middle East, there was no mood of celebration.
President Reuven Rivlin touched on the harsh reality that Palestinians still havenot accepted the existence of Israel but stated that, if the Jewish population ofIsrael were to reach 12 million, the Palestinians, too, “will decide that the bestplace for them to live is Israel.”
Rivlin’s remark is simply a repetition of the optimism traditionally held by
the Zionist right wing represented by Likud. Right-wing Zionists who embrace
force have asserted since before independence that a powerful Jewish state
would prompt the Palestinians to abandon their national ambition for an
independent country and accept Israeli rule. Israel is now quite powerful bothmilitarily and economically, but there are no signs whatsoever of the Palestinians
abandoning their hope for statehood.
The Palestinians have already shifted the focus of their anti-occupation
struggle from direct negotiations with Israel to a strategy of internationalization insuch venues as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Negotiations with Israel since the 1993 Oslo Accords have yielded thePalestinians nothing more than partial self-rule even as the number of settlers
has more than tripled.
This internationalization strategy has filtered down to the average citizen.
The young people the author met in Ramallah in the West Bank last October
manifested glocalization. They have been physically localized in a small area by
the security fence and other restrictions on movement, but the spread of theirideas and movement has been globalized by the Internet. In particular, theBoycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement targeting products made in
the settlements continues to gain broad-ranging support in Europe and the US,
which will likely result in further isolation for Israel within the internationalcommunity.
An even more serious problem for Israel is the population balance.
Nearly all demographic statistics predict that, if Israel continues its rule of theWest Bank and Gaza, Jews will slip into minority status by about 2020. To reach
Rivlin’s target of 12 million Jews, millions of American Jews will have to emigrate

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AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

to Israel, a virtual impossibility. A shift in balance will make incompatible Israel’s
two core values of a Jewish state and a democratic polity.
The right wing, with the ruling Likud Party at its core, emerged victoriousin the March general elections. A new coalition government has been formed
between the right-wing parties headed by Likud Party chairman Benjamin
Netanyahu and the religious parties. Grounded in hawkish nationalism andreligion, the fourth Netanyahu administration will undoubtedly be even moreadamant in rejecting compromise with the Palestinians. Should the nuclear talks
with Iran prove successful, the Obama administration may put pressure on Israel
over the Palestinian issue. However, it is only a matter of time before Obamaacquires lame-duck status, and Netanyahu will likely rely on his friends in the US
Congress to skirt US pressure.
In the short term, this will be regarded as a “success” for the Netanyahu
administration. Over the long term, however, the realities that face Israel –including isolation by the international community and the population balance –will become all the more challenging. The situation calls to mind the words of a
Palestinian leader in Gaza back in the early 1980s, more than three decadesago: “The Crusaders and other outside forces that have come to this land haveall been Lebantized and swallowed up by indigenous forces. Israel, too, will nodoubt meet with the same end.” Time is on the Palestinians’ side.

Ryoji Tateyama is a professor emeritus, National Defense Academy, and a visiting
fellow, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. He was a faculty member of theGraduate School of Security Studies and Department of International Relations,
National Defense Academy, from 1997 to 2013, and taught security studies andinternational relations in the Middle East.

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