Between Intervention and Isolation

Introduction/イントロダクション
January 22, 2016/2016年1月22日

Jun KURIHARA/栗原 潤
Research Director/研究主幹
Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)/キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
Kurihara.Jun@gmail.com©2016 Jun KURIHARA
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are thoseof the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CIGS.

Slide No. 2

Today’s Seminar: Program
Welcome and Introduction/イントロダクション
Jun Kurihara (Research Director, CIGS)/栗原 潤(キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹)

Session I: Presentation/講演“Between Intervention and Isolation”
Henry R. Nau (Professor, The George Washington University)/
ヘンリー・R・ナウ (ジョージワシントン大学)

After seven years of President Obama’s foreign policy of “leadingfrom behind,” the world is in chaos. . . . Nau draws lessons
from four successful presidencies to chart an intermediate
path between the excessive interventionism of President
George W. Bush and the threatened isolationism of President
Obama. This path calls for the defeat of threats from radicalIslam but a focus on freedom where it matters most – along
the borders with Russia in Ukraine and with China on theKorean peninsula. If freedom loses on these borders,America’s postwar ties with Europe and Japan may be injeopardy.

Session II: Q&A/質疑応答
Moderator: Jun Kurihara (CIGS)/

栗原 潤 (キヤノングローバル戦略研究所)

Closing Remarks/閉会の辞
Jun Kurihara (CIGS)/

栗原 潤 (キヤノングローバル戦略研究所)

Princeton University Press(Revised edition, August 25, 2015)
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

Introduction: Food for Thought (1)Slide No. 3

Book Review by Walter Russell Mead (Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb., 2014)
Nau is interesting, provocative, and sometimes convincing when he looks forsigns of conservative internationalism through the long sweep of U.S. history.
His description of that school of thought alone makes this book worth
reading. Unlike realists, Nau argues, conservative internationalists accept
the promotion of freedom as a legitimate goal of U.S. foreign policy.
Unlike liberal internationalists, they believe that American power, rather
than international institutions, offers the greatest hope for progress.
They also believe in an aggressive combination of force and diplomacy toadvance the American agenda worldwide, but they are less confident thaneither liberals or neoconservatives that a democratic utopia is just around thecorner. This is a valuable way of thinking about U.S. foreign policy for a
post-Bush, post-Obama future. It will be interesting to see if any 2016
Republican presidential candidates look to Nau’s ideas as a way to bridge thewidening gaps within the GOP when it comes to foreign policy.

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)Slide No. 4

Introduction: Food for Thought (2)Absolute and Relative Strengths of Japan, the United States, and China
in Economic Terms
Nominal GDP (US$ trillion)

Relative Size (US=100)
80.0

25.0

70.0
20.0

United States

60.0

E. Vogel’s
Japan As
NumberOne (‘79)

H. Nau’sConservativeInternationalism (‘13)

Japan

China

50.0

15.0

40.0
10.0

China

30.0
20.0

5.0

Japan
0.0

H. Nau’sMyth ofAmerica’s
Decline (‘90)

10.0
0.0

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1870 75 80 85 90 95 0
5 10 15
Note: When it comes to international comparison, economists generally look to GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, while political scientists
generally pay attention to nominal GDP in US dollar terms (because no state can purchase weapons from foreign countries in PPP terms).
Source: IMF

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

Introduction: Food for Thought (3)Slide No. 5

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Editorial (Nikkei Asian Review, January 7, 2016)“Inspiration from Abroad Can Help Japan's Economy Get Back on Track”『日本経済新聞』紙社説 (2016年1月1日) 「新たな時代の『追いつき追い越せ』へ」

The Japanese economy, though showing some signs ofimprovement, lacks vigor. Corporate and consumer sentimentremain lackluster, and there is a lingering wariness about whatlies ahead, both in the new year and beyond. But by taking a hardlook at itself and drawing inspiration from abroad, Japan can put
itself back on an upward trajectory.

2016年、新しい年があけた。日本経済は景気回復基調にあるものの、力強さに欠け、企業マインドも消費者心理もすっきりしない。将来に対する不安をぬぐい去れないためだ。世界的な競争に打ち勝ち、生き残っていくにはどうしたらいいのか。
一歩、前に踏み出す道を考えたい。

OUTDATED IMAGE
Domestically, there seems to be a gap between the popular imageof Japan and what state the country is really in. The first thingthat needs to be done is to correct the ideas and conceptions left
over from the days when Japan was the world's second-largesteconomy.

ズレた自画像ただす
まず大事なのは、おのれの姿を正確に知ることだ。というのは、思い描いている日本の自画像がズレているのではないかと考えられるからだ。こびりついている世界第2の経済大国の残像の修正からはじめる必要がある。

According to data compiled by the International Monetary Fund,Japan slipped to 27th place in the world in terms of percapita nominal gross domestic product in 2014. Even in East
Asia, Japan lost ground, falling to fourth as Hong Kong moved
up the ranking. Singapore and Brunei rounded out the top three.
Japan came third in the IMF ranking in the mid-1990s andremained among the top 10 throughout the rest of the decade.
During that time, Japan was No. 1 among Asian economies. But
during the first 10 years of the 2000s, Japan dropped to the 10s
and then quickly moved down to the 20s.GDP, of course, is noteverything. But by this measure, Japan is now only a middlelevel economy.

国際通貨基金(IMF)がまとめている国別の1人当たり名目国内総生産(GDP)の統計がある。それをみると、がくぜんとする。14年、日本は世界で27位に沈んでいるのだ。東アジアでは香港に抜かれ、4位になってしまった。その上にはシンガポール、ブルネイがランクしており、韓国がすぐ後の30位に迫ってきている。
1990年代半ばには3位を維持、90年代を通じてずっと10位以内だった。アジアではもちろんトップ。
00年代に入ってから10番台になり、あっという間に20番台に転落した。もちろんGDPがすべてではないが、もはや日本は世界の中位国でしかない。
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

Introduction: Food for Thought (4)Slide No. 6

Divergence between the World’s Image of Japan and Japan’s Self-Image?
One of the World’s Images of Japan amng Asians

Kishore Mahbubani, The Great Convergence,
New York: PublicAffairs, Feb., 2013

Japan’s Self-Image among Asians

マブマニ 『大収斂 - 膨張する中産階級が世界を変える』(邦訳本 中央公論社 2015年10月)
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)