DIPLOMACY
Vol.74, Jul./ Aug. 2022

Contents of Features

78

The significance and achievements of the Japan-Australia-India-U.S.(Quad) Leaders’ Meeting83

The ‘‘peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait’’: US-China-Taiwan relations and Japan

90

Will the ‘‘Global Pivotal State’’ of the Yoon Suk-yeol government revive Japan-US-SouthKorea cooperation?

The four countries share the common objectives of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)”. This article considers the functions ofthe framework, which has been making concrete examples of cooperation in various fields while securing US commitment.
Endo Kazuya (MOFA)
Fifty years have passed since the Shanghai Communique by Nixon and Zhou Enlai. Contrary to Chinese assertions, in thisagreement, the US reaffirmed its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question. This article gives thought on themeaning of this agreement as its importance has increased in recent years.
Madoka Fukuda (Hosei University)

The Yun administration's emphasis on US-Japan-South Korea cooperation and its high interest in the Indo-Pacific region arelikely to resonate with Japan’s diplomacy. However, bilateral relations between the two countries are unlikely to be easy.
Building trust between the leaders is a priority.
Junya Nishino (Keio University)

TREND2022
112

The fall of the “Populist Prime Minister”, Boris Johnson

118

The outline of the Act on Promotion of Economic Security and its impact on corporations

125

Myanmar: The chaos continues

132

The US-China rivalry over the Pacific Island Countries

138

Timor-Leste’s 20-year struggle since independence

The fall of Prime Minister Johnson was a result of his populist tactics losing its efficacy with the British public, and declining
popularity led to his abandonment by his own party. The views on his government are divided.
Daisuke Ikemoto (Meiji Gakuin University)
The Act on Promotion of Economic Security aims to secure important products including semiconductors and medicine, while
preventing attacks on important infrastructure.
Asai Toshio (UniLaw Business Law Institute)
A year and a half have passed since the coup d’etat in Myanmar. The movement against military rule has turned violent, with
2000 civilian deaths to date, and the number of refugees has surpassed 700,000. What direction will the clash between thejunta and the anti-military movement take?
Yoshihiro Nakanishi (Kyoto University)
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to the southern pacific island countries caused alarm among western nations. Will theisland states find the right balance between the major powers?
Takehiro Kurosaki (Tokai University)
This article reviews the difficult path Timor-Leste followed to gain independence, enumerates the problems it faces, analyses
Japan’s assistance and increasing China’s influence and investigates the strategies for survival of this small nation.
Mitsuru Yamada (Waseda University)

Special Feature:The War Continues,
Its Impact Spreads
6

The return to war of attrition: The Russia-Ukraine war

18

The lengthening of the war and the search for the possibility of a “Peace Settlement”

24

Russian army chose “Gradual Progress” in attack ? preconditions for armistice remain distant28

Since the end of the Cold War, non-military means had increased their importance in security planning, but the current conflict in
Ukraine seems to indicate the revival of classical warfare where the number of soldiers and quantity of material decides thevictor. What are the lessons for Japan?
Yu Koizumi (University of Tokyo)
Warring states always shift between the two poles of fundamental resolution and peace by compromise. When will negotiations
for peace begin, and by whose intermediation? The article attempts to identify the ‘‘termination of war’’.
Yasuaki Chijiwa (National Institute for Defense Studies, Ministry of Defense)
Yoshihiko Ito (Takushoku University)
Round table:

Emerging economies in turmoil Can the world avoid division into two competing camps?

Could Europe maintain its unity in the face of an energy crisis brought about by the continuing war? What is the impact of the war
on the emerging and underdeveloped economies suffering from inflation?
Sayuri Ito (NLI Research Institute)
Kohei Imai (IDE-JETRO)
Atsuko Higashino (University of Tsukuba)

40

The impact of the war and the economic sanctions on emerging economies

46

President Biden’s visit to Riyadh

50

The law of war and the legal responsibilities of the aggressor

By analyzing various states’ dependence on trade with Russia and their self-sufficiency in various resources, we can understandthe impact of the war and the sanctions on Russia on the emerging economies.
Takeshi Takayama (NLI Research Institute)
President Biden visited Saudi Arabia despite strong domestic opinion against the visit. His aim was to push Saudi Arabia into
increase its crude oil production, but the prospect remains ambiguous.
Shigeto Kondo (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
Is the use of military force for “humanitarian intervention” justifiable on international legal grounds? Should captured mercenaries
be treated as prisoners of war? Can war crimes be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court?
Masayuki Sakamoto (Hosei University)

FOCUS◎New developments in the Indo-Pacific56

62

The age of “moderate-multilateralism”: The change of Japan’s diplomacy

The Kishida administration has set its course on to a multilateralism, moving away from a single-minded dependence on theUS-Japan alliance, with the objective of realizing a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”.
Yakushiji Katsuyuki (Toyo University)
Round table:

The G7 and the Quad

Reviewing the two major political events in which Japan participated, the Quad Summit in May and the G7 Summit in June, thediscussants explore the possibilities of Japan’s multi-layered foreign policy.
Toru Ito (National Defense Academy)
Tomohiko Satake (National Institute for Defense Studies, Ministry of Defense)
Satoru Mori (Keio University)