IIPS Lecture Series 2006

North Korea and the Future of Northeast Asian Security
Lecture by Dr. Patrick Cronin
Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
12 December 2006
Hotel Grand Hill Ichigaya, TokyoOn December 12, 2006 the Institute forInternational Policy Studies (IIPS), with thesupport of the Nippon Foundation, hosted alecture on the topic “North Korea and the Futureof Northeast Asian Security,” delivered by Dr.
Patrick Cronin, Director of Studies at theInternational Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The venue for this event was the Hotel Grand HillIchigaya.
Dr. Cronin began his lecture by citing theproblems in the Middle East as an example ofconflict, and by noting that the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001 had caused the focus of US
strategic interests to move away from Asia and towards the Middle East andcountermeasures against terrorism. After pointing out that the world has changed in the five
years that have elapsed since 9/11, he then proceeded to make the following observations.
With regard to the North Korean problem,
the USA harbors a deep-seated distrust of North
Korea and has conventionally chosen to press
them with ultimatums. However, whatever thesymbolic significance of financial sanctions, theywould not be effective enough to cause aweapons of mass destruction program to beabandoned. In reality there is also internal
disagreement within the US administration overwhether to encourage regime change or policychange in North Korea.
The US should adopt an all-encompassing approach to North Korea by including fiveessential elements: deterrence, containment, negotiation, alliance operations, andnation-building.
In particular, in terms of containment, both missile and nuclear development
represent extremely urgent problems. Although sanctions may be more effective, it is©Institute for International Policy Studies 2007

extremely important to leave the door open for
dialogue and to strengthen the operational
management of the alliance at the same time.
Judging from the present situation, there isalso the possibility that the internal collapse of
North Korea would lead to regional instability.
Accordingly, it is impossible to ignore China’s
regional rise, which makes coordination between
the principal nations vital. Although the USA
wields overwhelming power, it would be unwise
for the USA to make decisions unilaterally.
Since Japan exercises power of a kind that is unique within the international
community, its cooperation will also be indispensable. In terms of global security, it isundesirable for countries such as Japan to be left completely on the sidelines. It is essentialthat Japan contribute willingly.
The USA cannot afford to take alaissez-faire attitude towards existing problems
over the next few years—it must without faildisplay the required leadership. It is to be hoped
that, in cooperation with the USA, Japan will pull
its weight and make a contribution tointernational security.
Having made these wide-ranging comments,Dr. Cronin concluded the lecture by responding
to questions from the floor.

©Institute for International Policy Studies 2007

This lecture series are supported by the Nippon Foundation