東北地域災害科学研究

17第57巻（2021）࢖ࣥࢻࢿࢩ࢔ Citarum ᕝୖὶᇦࡢ㝆㞵࣭ὶฟゎᯒ࡟㛵ࡍࡿᇶ♏ⓗ᳨ウ 㸨᪥ᮏ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ ⚄㇂㟷భ᪥ᮏ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ ᮅᒸⰋᾈ᪥ᮏ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊᝟ሗᕤᏛ⛉ ⱝᯘ⿱அ1㸬 ࡣࡌࡵ࡟࢖ࣥࢻࢿࢩ࢔࡟࠾࠸࡚㎰ᯘỈ⏘ᴗࡣ୺せ⏘ᴗࡢ 1 ࡘ࡛㸪2018 ᖺࡢྡ┠ GDP ᵓᡂẚࡣ
12.8%ࢆ༨ࡵࡿࠋẼೃኚືࡢᙳ㡪࡟క࠸㧗㞀ᐖࠊ᪭㨧ࠊὥỈ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㎰ᴗ⏕⏘ࡢపୗࡀண᝿ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ 1)ࠋࡇࡢࡓࡵ㸪࢖ࣥࢻࢿࢩ࢔ᨻᗓࡣ㣗ᩱᏳ඲ಖ㞀ࡸ㎰ᐙࡢྲྀᚓྥୖࢆᨻ⟇ୖࡢඃඛㄢ㢟ࡢ୍ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚఩⨨఩⨨࡙ࡅ࡚㸪2012 ᖺ㞵ᮇసࡼࡾ㎰ᴗಖ㝤஦ᴗࢆ㛤ጞࡋ㸪
2015 ᖺ㞵ᮇస࡟ࡣ 16 ᕞ࡟ࡲ࡛ᣑ኱ࡋ࡚ᐇ᪋ࡋࡓࠋ2016 ᖺ஝ᮇస࠿ࡽࡣ⡿ࢆ⏕⏘ࡍࡿ඲࡚ᅗ  %RMRQJVRQJ ᆅ༊࠾ࡼࡧ 7HJDOOXDU ᆅ༊ ࡢᕞࢆᑐ㇟࡟ᦆᐖ⿵࡚ࢇᆺ㎰ᴗಖ㝤ࢆᐇ᪋ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㎰ᴗಖ㝤ไᗘ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㎰ᐙ࡟⿵ൾ㔠ࢆᨭᡶ࠺㝿㸪㎰ᴗಖ㝤ࡢᢸᙜ⪅ࡀ⿕ᐖ≧ἣࢆ⌧ᆅㄪᰝࡀࡍࡿࡀ㸪⿕ᐖ≧ἣࢆಶࠎ࡟ㄪᰝࡍࡿ࡟ࡣከࡃࡢ᫬㛫࡜ປຊࢆせࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ၥ㢟ࡀక࠺ࠋ࢖ࣥࢻࢿࢩ࢔࡛ࡣ㸪㞵Ꮨ࡟ὥỈ࣭ỏ℃࡟ࡼࡿᾐỈࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋỈ⏣⪔༊ࡢᾐỈ⿕ᐖࡢࣔࢽࢱࣜࣥࢢ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪すࢪࣕ࣡ᕞࡢ Bojongsoang ᆅ༊࠾ࡼࡧ Tegalluar ᆅ༊㸦ᅗ 㸧ࢆࣃ࢖ࣟࢵࢺ࢚ࣜ࢔࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᾐỈ⿕ᐖࡢᗈᇦࣔࢽࢱࣜࣥࢢᡭἲࡢ㛤Ⓨࡀ㐍ࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋேᕤ⾨ᫍࡣᗈᇦࡢỈᇦࣔࢽࢱࣜࣥࢢ࡟ຠᯝⓗ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ㸪≉࡟࣐࢖ࢡࣟἼࢭࣥࢧࡣ㞼ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ࡟ࡃ࠸ࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪㞵Ꮨ஝Ꮨ࡟࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎᆅ⾲㠃ࢆࣔࢽࢱࣜࣥࢢ࡛ࡁࡿࠋWakabayashi et al., (2019) ࡣ Sentinel1 ⾨ᫍࡢ C ࣂࣥࢻྜᡂ㛤ཱྀ࣮ࣞࢲࢆ⏝࠸࡚㞵ᏘࡢᾐỈᇦࢆᢳฟࡋࡓࠋ➉⏣ࡽ (2020) ࡣ㸪Sentinel1 ⾨ᫍࡢほ࿘ᮇࡀ 12 ᪥࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ேᕤ⾨ᫍࡢほ࿘ᮇࢆ⿵࠺᪉ἲ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪஧ḟඖὸỈ᪉⛬ᘧࢆᇶ♏ᘧ࡜ࡍࡿෆỈỏ℃ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚㧗࠸᫬㛫࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࣂ࡛ࣝᾐỈᇦࢆィ⟬ࡋࡓࠋ⾨ᫍほ࡟ࡼࡿᾐỈᇦ࡜ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࡢᾐỈᇦࢆẚ㍑ࡋࡓ࡜ࡇࢁ㸪ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࡢᾐỈᇦࡣ㐣኱᥎ᐃ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ࡇࡢせᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᑐ㇟࢚ࣜ࢔ࢆὶࢀࡿ Ctarum ᕝ࠿ࡽࡢእỈỏ℃ࡢᐤ୚ࢆ↓ど࡛ࡁࡎ㸪ෆỈỏ℃ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣࢆᾐỈᇦࢆ༑ศ࡟෌⌧࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠋእỈỏ℃ࢆᩘ್ィ⟬ࡣ㸪ィ⟬㡿ᇦࡢୖὶ➃࡟Ἑᕝὶ㔞ࡢቃ⏺᮲௳ࢆタᐃࡋ࡚㸪ἙᕝỈ࡜ỏ℃Ỉࡢὶࢀࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿᡭἲࡢ௚࡟㸪ὶᇦࡢ㝆㞵࣭ὶฟ࣭ỏ℃㐣⛬ࢆ୍ᣓࡋ࡚ᩘ್ィ⟬ࡍࡿᡭἲࡀ࠶ࡿࠋᮏ◊✲ࡣ Citarum ᕝୖὶᇦࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚㸪㝆㞵࣭ὶฟ࣭ỏ℃㐣⛬ࢆ୍ᣓࡋ࡚ᢅ࠺ᩘ್ゎᯒᡭἲ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪㝆㞵࣭ὶฟゎᯒࡢጇᙜᛶࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࠋ
*A Fundamental Study on Runoff Analysis with a Numerical Simulation in the Upstream Area of the Citarum
River basin, Indonesia by Seisuke Kamiya, Yoshihiro Asaoka and Hiroyuki Wakabayashi

182㸬 ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦCitarum ᕝ ࡢ ඲ 㛗 ࡣ ⣙ 350km㸪 ὶ ᇦ 㠃 ✚ ࡣ ⣙6000km2 ࡛ ࠶ ࡿ ࠋ ᮏ ◊ ✲ ࡣ ὶ ฟ ゎ ᯒ ࡢ ⠊ ᅖ ࢆCitarum ᕝࡢୖὶᇦ㸦ᅗ 㸧࡟タᐃࡋࡓࠋලయⓗ࡟ࡣ㸪Nanjiung ᆅⅬࡢୖὶᇦ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢ
Bojongsoang ᆅ༊࡜ Tegalluar ᆅ༊࡟࠾࠸࡚ᮾ࠿ࡽす࡟ྥ࠿ࡗ࡚ Citarum ᕝࡀὶࢀ㸪㞵Ꮨ࡟ࡣᾐỈ⿕ᐖࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋ
3㸬 ◊✲ᡭἲ࠾ࡼࡧࢹ࣮ࢱࢭࢵࢺᅗ  ὶฟゎᯒࡢᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ ᮏ◊✲ࡣ㝆㞵࣭ὶฟ࣭ỏ℃ࢆ୍యⓗ࡟ᢅ࠺ RRI
ࣔࢹࣝ 4) 㸦Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model㸧ࢆᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ࡟㐺⏝ࡋࡓࠋᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࢆ 15”࣓ࢵࢩࣗ࡟ศ๭ࡋ㸪ᣑᩓἼ㏆ఝࡋࡓ஧ḟඖὸỈ᪉⛬ᘧࢆᒎ㛤ࡍࡿࠋྛ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࢆἙ㐨㒊ࡶࡋࡃࡣὶᇦ㒊࡟ศ㢮ࡋ㸪ὶᇦ㒊࡛ࡣᆅ୰㒊ࡢ㝆㞵ὶฟ㐣⛬ࡶྲྀࡾᢅ࠺ࠋ௨ୗ࡟஧ḟඖὸỈ᪉⛬ᘧࢆ♧ࡍࠋ㐃⥆ࡢᘧ䠖㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌㐠ື᪉⛬ᘧ(‫ݔ‬᪉ྥ):㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌㐠ື᪉⛬ᘧ(‫ݕ‬᪉ྥ):㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌డ௤ೣడ௧డ௤೤డ௧డ௛డ௧൅൅൅డ௤ೣడ௫డ௨௤ೣడ௫డ௩௤೤డ௫൅൅൅డ௤ೣడ௬డ௨௤ೣడ௬డ௩௤೤డ௬ൌ ‫ ݎ‬െ ݂㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 (1)ൌ െ݄݃డுൌ െ݄݃డுడ௫డ௬ఛെ ೣ 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 (2)ఘఛെ ೤㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 (3)ఘࡇࡇ࡛㸪‫ݑ‬㸪‫ ݔࡣݒ‬㸪‫ݕ‬᪉ྥࡢὶ㏿㸪‫ݍ‬௫ 㸪‫ݍ‬௬ ࡣ‫ ݔ‬㸪‫ݕ‬᪉ྥࡢὶ㔞ࣇࣛࢵࢡࢫ㸪݄ࡣỈ῝㸪‫ࡣܪ‬Ỉ఩㸪߬௫ 㸪߬௬ ࡣ‫ ݔ‬㸪‫ݕ‬᪉ྥࡢ๧᩿ᛂຊ㸪‫ࡣݎ‬㝆㞵ᙉᗘ㸪ߩࡣỈࡢᐦᗘ㸪݂ࡣ㖄┤ᾐ㏱ᙉᗘ㸪‫ࡣݐ‬᫬㛫࡛࠶ࡿࠋィ⟬᫬㛫㛫㝸 dt=600s ࡜ࡋࡓࠋ
 RRIࣔࢹࣝ࡟ධຊࡍࡿᶆ㧗ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸦ᅗ㸧࠾ࡼࡧὶྥࢹ࣮ࢱ㸦ᅗ㸧ࢆHydroSHDESࡼࡾྲྀᚓࡋࡓࠋ㞵㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ⾨ᫍ඲⌫㝆Ỉ࣐ࢵࣉࡢGSMaP_MVKࣉࣟࢲࢡࢺࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠋἙ㐨㒊ࡣ㞟Ỉ㠃✚࡟㜈್ࢆタࡅุ࡚ᐃࡋࡓࠋ㞵㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ✵㛫ศゎ⬟0.1°㸪ほ࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࣂࣝࡣ1᫬㛫࡛࠶ࡿࠋᩘ

್ィ⟬ࡢᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫ࡣ2018ᖺ9᭶࠿ࡽ2019ᖺ5᭶ࡲ࡛ࡢ9ࣨ᭶㛫࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢ஝ᮇ࡜㞵ᮇࢆุูࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟BandungᕷෆࡢᆅୖほⅬࡢ㝆㞵ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠋ

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4㸬 ⤖ᯝ࡜⪃ᐹ
GSMaP_MVK ࣉࣟࢲࢡࢺࡢ᫬㛫㞵㔞ࢆ᭶㞵㔞࡟㞟ィࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ  ࡟♧ࡍࠋࡲࡓ㸪2019 ᖺ 8 ᭶ࡲ࡛ࡢᆅୖほⅬ࡟ࡼࡿ㞵㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆᅗ  ࡟♧ࡍࠋ

GSMaP_MVK ࣉࣟࢲࢡࢺࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞ࡣ 10 ᭶௨㝆࡟ቑຍࡋ㸪12 ᭶࡟᭱኱࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ࡑࢀ௨㝆ࡣᚎࠎ࡟ῶ
ᑡࡍࡿࠋ6 ᭶࠿ࡽ 9 ᭶ࡣ஝Ꮨ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪㝆Ỉ㔞ࡣ࡯࡜ࢇ࡝࡞࠸ࠋᆅୖほ㞵㔞ࡢ㝆㞵㔞ࡣ 12 ᭶࡜ 2 ᭶࡟ࣆ࣮ࢡ࡜࡞ࡿࡀ㸪GSMaP_MVK ࣉࣟࢲࢡࢺ࡜ྠᵝ࡟ 6 ᭶࠿ࡽ 9 ᭶ࡢ㝆㞵㔞ࡣᑡ࡞࠸ࠋᅗ  Ἑᕝ㒊ࡢഴᩳゅRRI ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡋࡓ Bojongsoang ᆅ༊ࡓ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ  ࡟♧ࡍࠋἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡣ 2 ᭶࡜

164 ᭶ࡢ 2 ᅇⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋලయⓗ࡟ࡣ㸪1 ᭶ୖ᪪࠿ࡽ 2᭶ୗ᪪࡟ቑຍ㸪3 ᭶ୖ᪪࡟ῶᑡࡋ㸪4 ᭶ୖ᪪࡟ࡣ෌
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12 ᭶ୗ᪪࠿ࡽ 1 ᭶ୖ᪪࡟࠿ࡅ࡚ὶ㔞ࡀ࣐࢖ࢼࢫ࡟
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ᾐỈ㧗(m)㸦ᅗ 㸧ࡢἙᕝὶ㔞ࢆ 5 ᪥㛫ࡢ⛣ືᖹᆒ࡟᥮⟬ࡋ

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21ᅗ  Ỉ῝Ἑᕝὶ㔞䛜ῶᑡ䛧䛯᫬ᮇ䛷䛒䜛䚹Bojonsoang ᆅ༊䛷䛿ᨭᕝ䛛䜙 Citarum ᕝ䛻ὶධ䛜䛒䜚䠈11 ᭶ 7 ᪥䜢ᇶ‽䛸䛩䜛䛸 1 ᭶ 19 ᪥䠈4 ᭶ 11 ᪥䠈5 ᭶ 17 ᪥䛻㧗䛔䚹≉䛻 5 ᭶ 17 ᪥䛿ᨭᕝ䛾Ỉ῝䛜ᑠ䛥䛔䛻䜒㛵䜟䜙䛪䠈Citarum ᕝ䛾Ỉ῝䛜㧗䛔≧ែ䛜⥆䛟䛣䛸䛛䜙䠈䛣䜜䛿Ἑᗋ໙㓄䛜ᑠ䛥䛔䛣䛸䛻䜘䜚ᮏᕝ䛾㏻Ỉ
⬟ຊ䛜ప䛔䛣䛸䛜せᅉ䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹௨ୖ䜘䜚䠈Bojonsoang ᆅ༊䛷䛿 Citarum ᕝ䛾ἙᕝỈ䛜೵⁫䛧䜔䛩䛟䠈ᾐỈ䛻ᑐ䛧䛶እỈỏ℃䛾ᐤ୚䛜኱䛝䛔䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹
5䠊 䜎䛸䜑ᮏ◊✲䛿 RRI 䝰䝕䝹䜢䜲䞁䝗䝛䝅䜰 Citarum ᕝ䛾ୖὶᇦ䛻㐺⏝䛧䠈㝆㞵ὶฟゎᯒ䜢⾜䛳䛯䚹Citarumᕝ䛜ὶ䜜䜛 Bojonsoang ᆅ༊䛾㏻Ỉ⬟ຊ䛿ప䛟䠈䜎䛯䠈ᨭᕝ䛛䜙䛾ὶධ䛻䜘䜚䠈㞵Ꮨ䛻Ᏻᐃ䛧䛶ἙᕝỈ఩䛜㧗䛟䛺䜛䛣䛸䛛䜙䠈䛣䛾ᆅᇦ䛾ᾐỈ⿕ᐖ䛻እỈỏ℃䛜ᐤ୚䛧䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥䜜䛯䚹௒ᚋ䛿⵨Ⓨᩓ䜔Ἑ㐨᩿㠃䜢ᩘ್ィ⟬䛻⤌䜏㎸䜏䠈⌧ᆅ䛻༶䛧䛯㝆㞵䞉ὶฟ䞉ỏ℃ィ⟬䛻ྲྀ䜚⤌䜐ணᐃ䛷䛒䜛䚹䜎䛯䠈⾨ᫍ⏬ീ䜢⏝䛔䛶ᢳฟ䛧䛯ᾐỈᇦ䜢⏝䛔䛶ỏ℃ᇦ䛾䝅䝭䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁⤖ᯝ䜢᳨ド䛩䜛ணᐃ䛷䛒䜛䚹ㅰ㎡ᮏ◊✲䛾୍㒊䛿 JST/JICA㻌 SATREPS 䜲䞁䝗䝛䝅䜰᱌௳䛾ᨭ᥼䛻䜘䜚ᐇ᪋䛥䜜䛯䚹䜎䛯䠈ᅵᮌ◊✲ᡤ䜘䜚ᢏ⾡ᨭ᥼䜢ཷ䛡䛯䠊䛣䛣䛻ㅰព䜢♧䛩䚹22ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩1) Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., Falcon, W. P., & Burke, M. B. (2007). Assessing risks ofclimate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proceedings of the National
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