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In Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general - Nikkei Asia

INTERVIEWIn Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role
like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general
Former SDF top brass says country should prepare to take in 100,000-plus refugees

Retired Lt. Gen Koichiro Bansho, former commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Western Army, spoke toNikkei Asia in Washington on Nov. 30. (Photo by Ken Moriyasu)
KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei Asia diplomatic correspondent
December 1, 2023 06:04 JST

WASHINGTON -- In a potential Taiwan crisis, Japan will likely play a role similar
to Poland's in the Ukraine war because of geography and needs to prepare for sucha scenario, a retired three-star lieutenant general in Japan's Ground Self-Defense
Force told Nikkei Asia in an interview Thursday.

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12/1/23, 4:28 PM

In Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general - Nikkei Asia

Koichiro Bansho said that if China launches a military operation to seize Taiwan,
Japan is the only country that can serve as the gateway for the international
community to provide supplies to the Taiwanese to defend themselves.
"The Philippines will likely not take on such a role, and Australia or Hawaii are too
far," he said.
Japan also needs to be ready for an influx of Taiwanese refugees, said Bansho, who
noted that previous discussions on immigration in Japan have been restricted toaccepting a very limited number of foreigners. "We do not have a system ready toaccept hundreds of thousands of refugees," he said.
Other considerations include evacuee housing, quarantines and weapons screening,
he said.
Bansho -- the former commander of Japan's Western Army, tasked with defending
Kyushu and Okinawa -- was in Washington as the new distinguished senior fellow
for the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.
One question Bansho is often asked by Americans is what role Japan would take incombat if a war erupts in the Taiwan Strait between the U.S. and China.
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12/1/23, 4:28 PMIn Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general - Nikkei Asia

"The greatest contribution Japan can make is to properly defend itself," Bansho
said.
He pointed to Japan's strategic location and explained that bolstering defenses at
key chokepoints can create massive headaches for China.

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sails through the Miyako Strait near Okinawa on its way to the Pacific in this handout phototaken by the Japan Self-Defense Forces and released by the Joint Staff Office of the Ministry of Defense on April 4, 2021. ©
Reuters"China has nine exit points to the outer seas, and five of those are located in theJapanese archipelago," he said. Those five are the Tsugaru Straits, between Honshu
and Hokkaido in the north; the Osumi Strait, off the southwestern prefecture ofKagoshima; the Yokoate Channel, between the island of Amami Oshima and theisland of Yokoate; the Miyako Strait, a 250-kilometer-wide passageway between
Miyako Island and Okinawa Island; and the Yonaguni Channel, the waters off
Japan's westernmost island, located 110 km from Taiwan.

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In Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general - Nikkei Asia

The other four exit points are the Bashi Channel, between Taiwan and thePhilippines; the Lombok Strait, off Bali; the Sunda Strait, between the Indonesianislands of Java and Sumatra; and the Malacca Strait, which opens up to the IndianOcean.
"One of Japan's strategies is to impose costs on the opponent," Bansho said. "Forinstance, if mines were scattered in the waters, it would be a hassle to remove them.
If anti-air defenses were deployed, it would be very difficult to establish airsuperiority."
But Bansho made clear that Japan's Self-Defense Forces would not be fighting in
Taiwan itself. "The main areas of the SDF's activity will be in Japanese territory andperhaps international waters to protect Japanese ships," he said. "A scenario in
which the SDF will go onto Taiwanese land and defend Taipei alongside the U.S.,
for instance, is not expected," Bansho said.
Bansho also argued that it is time for Japan to review its stringent "three nonnuclear principles" of not possessing or producing nuclear weapons and not
permitting their introduction onto its territory.
"It is time to review the third principle of not letting the U.S. bring in nuclear
weapons into Japan," he said. Bansho stressed that this interferes with theAmerican strategy for the Indo-Pacific.
"The U.S. is planning to disperse ground-based midrange missiles, previously
banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, across the first island
chain, including Japan's southwest islands, to counter China, which is rapidly
building up its nuclear force," Bansho said, referring to the chain of islands outside
China that encompass Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia.
"The U.S. has not specified whether these are conventional missiles or nuclear
missiles, and they do not need to," he said. "But for Japan to say 'please don't bringthem' in the name of the three non-nuclear principles does not advance Japan'snational interest."

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In Taiwan crisis, Japan to play role like Poland to Ukraine: ex-general - Nikkei Asia

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