Annex 9 – Africa

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Trends in Africa @2050
ScenarioAllTrends in Africa
Market•For all vehicle types: Significant increases in both new vehicle sales and in-use fleets.

Energy mix•

Share of clean energy is approximately 80%.

•Share of electrified vehicles in new passenger car sales is approximately
100%, with about 30% of new passenger cars being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercialvehicle fleets is approximately 20%.

Electrifiedvehicles•

CNFFuel mix

BEV75

2050/2020
CO2 emissions

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of biofuels + electricity + hydrogen is more than 30%.
CNF share represents approx. 22% of total fuel consumption in 2050.
(In CNF+ scenario, CNF share increases to52%.)•

Share of electrified vehicles in new passenger car and commercial
vehicle sales is 100%, with about 50% being BEVs/FCEVs.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use passenger car and commercial
vehicle fleets is approximately 40%.

•Fuel mix••

Share of biofuels + electricity + hydrogen is approx. 50%.
CNF share represents approx. 18% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

Electrifiedvehicles••

Share of BEVs/FCEVs in new vehicle sales for all vehicle types is 100%.
Share of BEVs/FCEVs in the in-use fleets for all vehicle types is morethan 80%.

•

More than 70% is biofuels + electricity + hydrogen.
(Assumption: Synthetic fuel = 0%.)
Biofuel share = 4% of total fuel consumption in 2050.

NZE
Fuel mix•+25% approx.
(In CNF+,-22% approx.)-11% approx.

-49% approx.

CO2 emission levels range between about +25% to -49% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in two scenarios are within or lower than the IPCC 2050 2.0℃ climate scenarios’ -14% to -44% range.)
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New Passenger Car Sales (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
PHEV
HEV
NGV
ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

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New Commercial Vehicle Sales (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
HEV

ICE

BEV75

NGV

NZE

FCEV

PHEV

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New Motorcycle Sales (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV

ICE

BEV75

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NZE

5

In-Use Passenger Car Fleet (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEV
HEV
NGV
ICE

BEV75

NZE
FCEV

PHEV

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In-Use Commercial Vehicle Fleet (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF
BEV
HEV

NGV

ICE

BEV75

NZE

FCEV

PHEV

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In-Use Motorcycle Fleet (Africa)
BAU（x 1,000 units）

CNF

BEVICE

BEV75

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NZE

8Automotive Fuel Mix (Africa)
BAU（In ktoe）

CNF

CNG

Electricity
BiofuelPetroleum

NZE

BEV75Hydrogen
Synthetic fuelCopyright © Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

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Energy Mix (Africa)（In %）

Other than BAU

BAU

RenewableenergyFossil fuels

NuclearBiomass
Fossilfuels+CCS（gCO2/kWh）

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CO2 Emissions (Africa)（In ktCO2）

CO2 emission levels range between about +25% to -49% compared to 2020.

(CO2 emissions in two scenarios are within or lower than the IPCC 2050 2.0℃ climate scenarios’ -14% to -44% range.)
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