東北地域災害科学研究123

第58巻（2022）ᅜ ෆ⮬↛⅏ᐖ⿕ᐖࡢ☜⋡ศᕸ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ୍⪃ᐹ 㸨 ᮾ໭኱Ꮫ⅏ᐖ⛉Ꮫᅜ㝿◊✲ᡤ ዟᮧ ㄔ1㸬 ᮏ◊✲ࡢ┠ⓗ ⮬↛⅏ᐖ࠿ࡽࡢ♫఍ࡢᦆኻࡣ㸪┤᥋⿕ᐖ࡟క࠺♫఍⤒῭άືࡢ୍᫬ⓗ࡞ⴠࡕ㎸ࡳ㸦࢖ࣥࣃࢡࢺ㸧ࢆ㉳Ⅼ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᚎࠎ࡟᚟ᪧࡋ࡚⿕⅏๓ࡢỈ‽࡟ᡠࡿࡲ࡛ࢆ᫬㛫✚ศࡋࡓࣞࢪ࢚ࣜࣥࢫࡢ୕ゅᙧ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ホ౯࡛ࡁ㸪㏻ᖖࡢ⮬↛⅏ᐖ⤫ィࡀィ㔞ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡢࡣᙜึࡢ࢖ࣥࣃࢡࢺ࡟┦ᙜࡋ㸪ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻᙉᗘ᭚㟢⬤ᙅᛶ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ㄝ࡛᫂ࡁࡿࠋ♫఍ⓗ࡟⮬↛⅏ᐖࡢ࢖ࣥࣃࢡࢺࢆᑠࡉࡃࡍࡿ࡟ࡣ㸪 ȋͳȌ᭚㟢ࢆୗࡆࡿᡓ␎࡜ ȋʹȌ⬤ᙅᛶࢆୗࡆࡿᡓ␎ࡀ࠶ࡾ㸪௒ᚋࡢᑐ⟇❧᱌ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ࡣ㸪ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢᑐ⟇ࡢຠᯝࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ࡟ᢕᥱࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀᮃࡲࢀࡿࠋࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ಶࠎࡢ⮬↛⅏ᐖ࢖࣋ࣥࢺࡣ㸪␗࡞ࡿሙᡤ㸪᫬㛫㸪≧ἣࡢ୰࡛Ⓨ⏕ࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪㐣ཤࡢ୍ࡘࡢ࢖࣋ࣥࢺࡢ⿕ᐖ㔞࡟ᑐࡋ࡚≉ᐃࡢ᪋⟇ࡀ㍍ῶຠᯝࢆⓎ᥹ࡋࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶ㸪௒ᚋูࡢ᫬㛫㸪ሙᡤ㸪≧ἣࡢ୰࡛Ⓨ⏕ࡍࡿ⮬↛⅏ᐖ࢖࣋ࣥࢺ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ྠ➼ࡢ㍍ῶຠᯝࡀᮇᚅ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜ࡣ㝈ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࢀࡺ࠼㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ୍ᐃᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿྠ✀ࡢ࢖࣋ࣥࢺ࡟ࡼࡿ⿕ᐖ㔞ࡢศᕸ࡟╔┠ࡋ㸪ྛ✀ࡢᨻ⟇ࡀࡇࡢ⿕ᐖ㔞ࡢศᕸ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆ㸪㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᴫᛕⓗ࡟⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋࡘ࠸࡛㸪㒔㐨ᗓ┴ู⮬↛⅏ᐖ⿕ᐖ⤫ィࡢ᭱㏆ ͳ͵ ᖺ㛫ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ㠀㈇್⾜ิᅉᏊศゎȋ Ȍ࡟ࡼࡾᑡᩘࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬ࡟㞟⣙ࡋࡓୖ࡛㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆᥥࡁ㸪ྛ✀ࡢ㜵⅏ᑐ⟇ࡢᙳ㡪ࡢ⪃ᐹࢆヨࡳࡿࠋ
2㸬 ᨻ⟇せᅉࡀ⿕ᐖ㔞࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᴫᛕⓗ᳨ウ ᆅ㟈ࡢᑐᩘつᶍ࡜ᑐᩘⓎ⏕☜⋡ࡢ㛫࡟ぢࡽࢀࡿ┤⥺ⓗ㛵ಀࡣ Gutenberg-Righter ๎࡜࿧ࡤࢀ㸪௚ࡢከࡃࡢ⮬↛⌧㇟ࡸ♫఍⌧㇟࡟ࡶ㸪୧ᑐᩘ⾲♧ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡀ┤⥺࡛♧ࡉࢀࡿ࡜࠸࠺ࠕ࡭
ࡁ஌๎ࠖࡀほᐹࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ⮬↛⅏ᐖࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡢほᚑ࠺࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓୖ࡛㸪ྛ✀ࡢᨻ⟇ຠᯝ࡟ࡼࡗ
࡚㸪ࡑࡢࣁࢨ࣮ࢻ࡟ἢࡗ࡚Ⓨ⏕ࡍࡿ⿕ᐖ㸦࢖ࣥࣃࢡࢺ㸧ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢᙧࡀ࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡟ኚ໬ࡍࡿ࠿ࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋᅗ  ࡣᚋ㏙ࡍࡿ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ู⅏ᐖ⿕ᐖ⤫ࡲࡎᅗィࡢ୺せ࡞ 6 㡯┠࡟㛵ࡍࡿ୧ᑐᩘ⾲♧ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺࡛㸪ྛ᭤⥺ࡢഴࡁࡣ 0.5ࠥ0㸬9 ⛬ᗘ࠿ࡽጞࡲࡾ㸪ྑ᪉࡟ᫎࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ഴࡁࡀ 1.2
ࠥ2.5 ⛬ᗘ࡟ቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ྑୖ
࡟ฝ࡞ᙧ≧ࡀ⌧ࢀࡿཎᅉࢆ⪃࠼ࡿࠋࡲࡎ᭚㟢ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿࠋᆅ⾲㠃࡛ࡢ⮬↛ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡢⓎ⏕⋡ࡣ୍ᵝ࡛࡞ࡃ೫ᅾࡋ࡚ศ

᭱኱್࡛ᇶ‽໬ᚋࡢつᶍ࣮ᛶ㸧ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ಀᩘࡀ 1 ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ┤⥺࡟1༢఩୙ኚᛶ㸦ࢫࢣ࣮࣭ࣝࣇࣜ
10㡰఩ 100

1000

10.1

0.01
0.001
0.00010.00001
0.000001

0.0000001
ᅗṚஸ୙᫂⪅ᩘ㈇യ⪅ᩘ඲ቯᐙᒇᩘࡾ⅏ୡᖏᩘࡾ⅏ேᩘ⿕ᐖ㢠୺࡞⿕ᐖ㡯┠್ࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺* Discussion on the probabilistic distribution of Japanese disaster damage statistics by Makoto Okumura

124ࡼ࠺࡟㸪ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡀ㧗࠸ᆅᇦ࡯࡝᭚㟢㔞ࡢᏑᅾᐦᗘࡀపࡅࢀࡤ㸪⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡣࣁ ࢨ࣮ ࢻࡢ ᭤⥺ ࡟ẚ ࡭࡚ ഴࡁ ࡀ⦆ ࡃ ࡞
ࡿࠋ㏫࡟㸪኱Ἑᕝࡢỏ℃ཎୖ࡟ከࡃࡢ㒔ᕷࡀᙧᡂࡉࢀ࡚ࡁࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪Ỉᐖ⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡣࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡢ᭤⥺࡟ẚ࡭࡚ᛴ࡞ഴࡁ࡜࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ⬤ᙅᛶࡣ㸪ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ᢬ᢠຊ࡟┦ᙜࡍࡿࠋ㧗㢖ᗘ࡛㉳ࡇࡿ㍍ᚤ࡞እຊ࡟ࡣ༑ศ
࡞᢬ᢠຊࢆᣢࡕ⿕ᐖࡣⓎ⏕ࡋ࡞࠸ࡀ㸪つᶍࡀ኱ࡁ࠸እຊ࡛ࡣ⿕ᐖ࡟⤖ࡧࡘࡃྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋࡇࡢᶵ⬟ⓗࣇࣛࢪࣜࢸ࢕ࡣ㸪S Ꮠ᭱኱್࡟ࡼࡾᇶ‽໬ࡋࡓつᶍᕸࡍࡿࠋⅆᒣᆅᇦ࡟㒔ᕷࢆసࡽ࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺

10-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-1810㡰఩

1001000ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺᭚㟢㔞ࡀ༴㝤ഃ࡟೫ᅾࡍࡿሙྜ᭚㟢㔞ࡀᏳ඲ഃ࡟೫ᅾࡍࡿሙྜ⬤ᙅᛶࢆࣟࢪࢫࢸ࢕ࢵࢡ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡼࡾ⪃៖ࡋࡓ㸪⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ᅗ ௬᝿ⓗ࡞⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺≧ࡢࣟࢪࢫࢸ࢕ࢵࢡ᭤⥺࡛⾲⌧ࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀከ࠸ࠋࡇࡢຠᯝ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᑠつᶍ࡞ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⿕ᐖࡣᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿ࠿ࡽ㸪㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢഴࡁࡣྑ᪉࡟࠾࠸࡚ᛴ࡟࡞ࡿࠋࡉࡽ࡟እຊつᶍࡀ᪥ᖖⓗ࡞ኚືᖜ௨ୗ࡟࡞ࢀࡤ⿕ᐖࡣほࡉࢀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪᭤⥺ࡀ࠶ࡿ㡰఩࡛㏵ษࢀࡿࠋ㏫࡟㸪ᴟ➃࡟኱ࡁ࡞ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡣᗈᇦ࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡀ㸪⿕ᐖࡣᆅᇦ༢఩ࡈ࡜࡟ィࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᕥ᪉࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᭤⥺ࡢഴࡁࡣᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜ࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪┤⥺ⓗ࡞ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆ௬ᐃࡋ㸪⬤ᙅᛶࢆࣟࢪࢫࢸ࢕ᅗ࡟ࢵࢡᆺࡢᶵ⬟ⓗࣇࣛࢪࣜࢸ࢕㛵ᩘ࡛୚࠼࡚⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢᙧ≧ࢆィ⟬ࡋࡓࡶࡢࢆᅗ♧ࡍࠋᶵ⬟ⓗࣇࣛࢪࣜࢸ࢕᭤⥺ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ್࡟౫Ꮡࡍࡿࡀ㸪⿕ᐖࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢഴࡁࡣࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡟࡞ࡾྑୖ࡟ฝ࡞ᙧ≧࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡓࠋࡇࡢᅗ࡛ࡣࡉࡽ࡟㸪᭚㟢㔞ࡀ୍ᵝ࡞✵㛫ศᕸ࡟ẚ࡭࡚㸪Ᏻ඲ഃ࡟೫ᅾࡍࡿሙྜ࡜༴㝤ഃ࡟೫ᅾࡍࡿሙྜࡶ⾲♧ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ࣁࢨ࣮ࢻ࢚ࣜ࢔ࡢᅵᆅ฼⏝ᙉᗘࢆୗࡆࡿ᪋⟇ࢆᡴࡘ࡜㸪኱つᶍ⿕ᐖࡢ㢖ᗘࡀῶᑡࡋ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢᕥഃࡀୗࡀࡗ࡚ഴࡁࡀ⦆ࡃ࡞ࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᙳ㡪ࡀ᝿ᐃ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ௚᪉㸪᢬ᢠຊࡢᙉ໬࡟ࡼࡾ⬤ᙅᛶࢆୗࡆࡿᨻ⟇ࡣᑠつᶍ⿕ᐖࡢ㍍ῶ࡟ຠᯝࡀ኱ࡁ࠸ࡓࡵ࡟㸪㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࡢྑഃࢆୗࡆ࡚໙㓄ࢆ⌫࡟ࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᙳ㡪ࡀ᝿ᐃ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ

3㸬 㒔㐨ᗓ┴ู⿕ᐖ⤫ィࡢ㠀㈇್⾜ิᅉᏊศゎ 10) ᡭἲ࡟ࡼࡿ㞟⣙᪥ᮏ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⅏ᐖ⿕ᐖศᕸࡢ⤒ᖺኚ໬ࢆศᯒࡍࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ᾘ㜵ᗇࡀ㞟⣙ࡋᾘ㜵ⓑ᭩ࡢ௜⾲࡟ᥖ㍕ࡉࢀࡓ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ูᖺ㛫⿕ᐖ⤫ィࡢ 2007 ᖺ࠿ࡽ 2019 ᖺࡲ࡛ࡢ 13 ᖺ㛫ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࠋ⿕ᐖ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ㡯┠࠿ࡽ⤒ᖺⓗ࡞㔠㖹౯್ࡢኚ໬ࢆཷࡅࡿ⥲⿕ᐖ㢠ࢆ㝖ࡁ㸪௨ୗ࡟♧ࡍ 21 㡯┠ࡢᩘ್ࢆᩚ⌮ࡋࡓࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕ㸪a)Ṛஸ࣭୙᫂⪅ᩘ㸪b)㈇യ⪅ᩘ㸪c)඲ቯ࣭ὶኻᐙᒇᩘ㸪d)༙ቯᐙᒇᩘ㸪e)୍㒊◚ᦆᐙᒇᩘ㸪f)ᗋୖᾐỈᐙᒇᩘ㸪g)ᗋୗᾐỈᐙᒇᩘ㸪h)㠀ఫᐙᘓ≀⿕ᐖ௳ᩘ㸪i)Ỉ⏣ࡢὶኻ࣭ᇙἐ㠃✚㸪j)Ỉ⏣ࡢෙỈ㠃✚㸪k)⏿ࡢὶኻ࣭ᇙἐ㠃✚㸪l)⏿ࡢෙỈ㠃✚㸪m)㐨㊰ᦆቯ௳ᩘ㸪n)ᶫᱱ◚ᦆᩘ㸪o)Ἑᕝᦆቯ௳ᩘ㸪p)ᒣ㸦ᓴ㸧ࡃࡎࢀ௳ᩘ㸪q)㕲㌶㐨⿕ᐖ௳ᩘ㸪r)㏻ಙ᪋タ⿕ᐖ௳ᩘ㸪s)⯪⯧⿕ᐖ௳ᩘ㸪t)⨯⅏ୡᖏᩘ㸪u)⨯⅏⪅ᩘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋሗ࿌᫬ᮇࡲ࡛࡟ㄪᰝࡀ⤊஢ࡋ࡞࠿

125

Missed People
Partly Collap. Houses
Rice Field Destroyed
Road damaged
Railway damaged
Affected People
100%

Injured People
Flood over floor
Rice Field Flooded
Bridge damaged
Telecom damaged

Fully Collap. Houses
Flood under floor
Agric.Field Destroyed
River damaged
Ships damaged

Affected People
River damaged
Affected Households

90%

Affected People

80%
Slope Collupsed
Railway damagedFlood under floor
Agric.Field Flooded

Buildings Dameged
Telecom damaged
Bridge damaged

50%

Bridge damaged

Buildings Dameged
River damaged

Injured People
Road damaged
Partly Collap. Houses
Agric.Field Destroyed

40%
Flood over floor

30%Road damaged

20% Rice Field Destroyed
Rice Field Flooded
10%

Ships damaged

River damaged
Affected Households

70%60%

Harf Collap. Houses
Buildings Dameged
Agric.Field Flooded
Slope Collupsed
Affected Households

Missed People
Missed People0%
Railway

CityFlood

AgriFlood

Harf Collap. Houses

Rice Field Destroyed
Flood over floor

Missed People

StormDamage

Infra Damage

Missed People

Fully Collap. Houses
Life Damage

Human Damageᅗ  㠀㈇್⾜ิᅉᏊศゎ࡟ࡼࡿ  ࡘࡢᅉᏊࡢᅉᏊ㈇Ⲵ㔞ࡢᵓᡂࡗࡓ⿕ᐖศࡀィୖࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㸪 2011 ᖺ࡜ 12 ᖺࡢᒾᡭ࣭ᐑᇛ࣭⚟ᓥ㸪2016 ᖺࡢᒾᡭ࣭⇃ᮏ㸪
2019 ᖺࡢᐑᇛ࣭⚟ᓥࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆྲྀࡾ㝖ࡁ㸪47ͳ͵ѸͳͲ㸻ͳͺͺ ࢧࣥࣉࣝࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋࡓࠋඛ࡟♧ࡋᅗ  ࡟ࡣ㸪ࡇࢀࡽࡢ୰ࡢ a)Ṛஸ࣭୙᫂⪅ᩘ㸪b)㈇യ⪅ᩘ㸪c)඲ቯ࣭ὶኻᐙᒇᩘ㸪t)⨯⅏ୡᖏᩘ㸪ࡓᅗu)⨯⅏⪅ᩘࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡽࡢᩘ್ࡣ㸪ᬺᖺࡈ࡜࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓ」ᩘࡢ⮬↛⅏ᐖ࢖࣋ࣥࢺ࡟ࡼࡿ⿕ᐖ㔞ࢆ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ࡈ࡜࡟㞟ィࡋࡓᩘ್࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪」ᩘࡢ㡯┠ࡢ⿕ᐖࡀྠ୍ࡢ⮬↛⅏ᐖ࢖࣋ࣥࢺ࡟ࡼࡾྠ᫬࡟ᘬࡁ
㉳ࡇࡉࢀࡓሙྜࢆከࡃྵࢇ࡛࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪㡯┠ࡈ࡜ࡢᩘ್ࢆ┦஫࡟⊂❧࡞ࡶࡢ࡜ࡋ࡚ᢅ࠺ࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ㸪ᅉᏊศᯒ࡟ࡼࡿ᝟ሗ㞟⣙ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢ࡜ࡁ㸪ࡇࢀࡽࡢ⿕ᐖ㡯┠ࡢᩘ್ࡣᇶᮏⓗ࡟ṇࡢ್ࡋ࠿࡜ࡾᚓ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜࡟╔┠ࡋ㸪☜⋡ศᕸࡢᙧ≧ࢆṍࡵ࡞࠸㠀㈇್⾜ิᅉᏊศゎ㸦NMF; Nonnegative Matrix Factorization㸧ἲࢆ⏝࠸㸪࣋࢖ࢬ⤫ィ࡟ᇶ♏ࢆ⨨ࡃᩘ್ⓗ᥎ᐃἲࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓࠋィ⟬᫬㛫࡜ AIC ࢆཧ⪃࡟ᅉᏊᩘࢆ 7 ಶ࡜ᐃࡵࡓࠋᅗ  ࡟♧ࡍᅉᏊ㈇Ⲵ㔞࠿ࡽ 7 ࡘࡢᅉᏊࡢෆᐜࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿ࡜㸪(1)㕲㐨⿕ᐖࡢ࡯࠿Ṛஸ࣭୙᫂⪅ࡸỈ⏣ࡢὶኻࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡍᅉᏊ(Railway),(2) Ἑᕝࡢᦆቯ㸪ఫᏯࡢᗋୖ㸪ᗋୗᾐỈࡀேⓗ⿕ᐖ࡜⨯⅏ୡᖏࡸ⨯⅏⪅ࢆⓎ⏕ࡉࡏࡿ㒔ᕷᇦỈᐖࡢᅉᏊ(City Flood)㸪(3) Ἑᕝࡢᦆቯࡀ⏿ࡸỈ⏣ࡢෙỈࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍ㎰ᆅỈᐖࡢᅉᏊ(Agri Flood)㸪(4)ᅵ◁ᔂࢀ࡟ࡼࡿ㐨㊰㸪Ἑᕝࡢᦆቯ࡜ఫᏯࡢᗋୖᾐỈࢆ㉳ࡇࡍỈᐖᅉᏊ(Storm Damage)㸪(5)Ἑᕝ࣭㐨㊰࣭ᶫᱱ࠾ࡼࡧ㎰⏝ᆅࡢᦆቯ࡜Ṛஸ࣭୙᫂⪅࡟ࡘ࡞ࡀࡿ≀⌮ⓗ◚ቯࡢᅉᏊ(Infra Damage)㸪(6)ᐙᒇ㸪㠀ఫᒃᘓ≀㸪㏻ಙ᪋タ㸪ᶫᱱࡢ◚ቯ࡜⨯⅏ୡᖏ㸪⨯⅏⪅ࢆⓎ⏕ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍ⏕άᇶ┙ࡢᶵ⬟ᦆኻᅉᏊ(Life Damage)㸪࠾ࡼࡧ(7)㠀ఫᒃᘓ≀ࡸ⯪⯧ࡢ◚ቯ࡜ከᩘࡢṚയ⪅ࢆ⏕ࡳฟࡍேⓗ⿕ᐖࡢᅉᏊ(Human Damage)࡛࠶ࡿ㸬4㸬 㞟⣙ࡉࢀࡓ⿕ᐖᅉᏊᚓⅬࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺࡜ࡑࡢ⤒ᖺẚ㍑
13 ᖺࢆ 1 ᖺࡎࡘ㔜」ࡍࡿ 3 ᮇ㛫㸦2007-2011 ᖺ㸪2011-2015 ᖺ㸪2025-2019 ᖺ㸧࡟ศࡅ㸪㒔㐨ᗓ126┴ูࡢ 7 ࡘࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆసᡂࡋࡓ㸬ᅗ 4 ࡣ 2 ࡘࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬẖ࡟㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺ࢆࣉࣟࢵࢺࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡼࡾ㸪࡝ࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬࡶྑୖ࡟ฝ࡞ᙧ≧ࡢ᭤⥺ࢆᣢࡕ㸪⤒ᖺⓗ࡞ኚ໬ࡣᑠࡉ࠸㸬ᕥୖ᪉ࡢഴࡁࡣ 0.5 ⛬ᗘ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪኱つᶍࡢ⅏ᐖࡢ⿕ᐖࡀ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡟཰ࡲࡽ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀᙳ㡪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬୍᪉㸪୰఩࡛ࡢഴࡁࡣ 1.5 ࠿ࡽ 2.5 ⛬ᗘ࡜ᛴ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪⬤ᙅᛶࢆୗࡆࡿᨻ⟇ࡢᙳ㡪ࡀ♧၀ࡉࢀࡿ㸬࡞࠿࡛ࡶ (6)Life Damage ࡢ᭤⥺ࡣᕥഃ࠿ࡽᛴ࡞ഴࡁࢆᣢࡘࡢ࡜ᑐ㇟ⓗ࡟㸪(7)Human Damage ࡢ᭤⥺ࡣഴࡁࡢኚ໬ࡀ⦆ࡸ࠿࡛㸪ຠᯝⓗ࡞㜵⅏ᑐ⟇ࡢᅔ㞴ࡉࡀᠱᛕࡉࢀࡿ㸬ྠ୍ࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬࡢ᫬ᮇ࡟ࡼࡿ㐪࠸ࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿ࡜㸪᭤⥺ࡢᕥୗ᪉࡬ࡢࢩࣇࢺࡀ᫂░࡞ᅉᏊࡣぢᙜࡓࡽࡎ㸪㜵⅏᪋⟇ࡢຠᯝࡀ╔ᐇ࡟⌧ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡣゝ࠼࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬

A: (1) Railway Damage, (5) Infra Damage

C: (2) City Flood, (4) Storm Damage

B: (2) City Flood, (3) Agri Flood

D: (6) Life Damage, (7) Human Damageᅗ   ࡘࡢᅉᏊᚓⅬࡢ  ᮇ㛫ูࡢ㡰఩つᶍ᭤⥺1)2)3)டᒸᘯ࿴㸸㠀㈇್⾜ิᅉᏊศゎ㸪ィ ࡜ไᚚ㸪➨ 51 ᕳ➨ 9 ྕ㸪pp.835-844㸪2012㸬ඖ஭ึ㡢࣭ዟᮧㄔ࣭Ỉ㇂኱஧㑻㸸ᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡢඹ㏻ᛶ࡟╔┠ࡋࡓᆅᇦ♫఍ࡢẚ㍑ศᯒἲ㸪ᅵᮌィ⏬Ꮫ◊✲࣭ㅮ₇
㞟㸪Vol.57㸪No.17-09㸪2018㸬
Mikkel N. Schmidt, Ole Winther, and Lars Kai Hansen: Bayesian Non-negative Matrix Factorization, ICA 2009, LNCS
5441, pp.540-547, 2009.