DIPLOMACY

Vol.70, Nov. / Dec. 2021
Contents of Features

66

China and Taiwan's applications to join the CPTPP and Japan's response

Japan should maintain the high standards of the CPTPP, which it has been promoting, and engage in negotiations with China
and Taiwan in order to reach the destination of the FTAAP in the midst of a “fight” between China and Taiwan.
Tsuyoshi Kawase (Sophia University)

TREND2021
74

The impact of the “15% minimum corporate tax rate”: Global governance of international taxation

96

Will the Taliban be able to govern in a reform-oriented manner?

102

China’s partnership with Afghanistan and its reality

108

Why Australia chose AUKUS: Perception of threat to China and anxiety about the United States

114

A retrospective on 16 years of Merkel’s diplomacy: Pragmatism that brought stability andprosperity to Germany

International tax reform has finally addressed the tax avoidance of multinational corporations using lightly taxed countries.
What are the “two pillars” of redistribution of taxation rights and minimum tax rates? Will this put an end to the “tax wars” that
attempts to lure corporations with low tax rates?
Masao Yoshimura (Hitotsubashi University)

The Taliban regime has pledged to the world that it is reform-oriented. But for a regime whose cause is the revival of the state
under Islamic law, reform is a factor that weakens its leadership, and pressure from ISIS-K will make it difficult to achieve.
Koichiro Tanaka (Keio University)
China’s “constructive intervention” by changing the principle of non-interference can be considered as a component of the Beltand Road Initiative that includes Afghanistan and is part of the Taliban’s lifeline. However, terrorist attacks targeting China havealso been sporadic, which may affect the Taliban’s control and progress in the multilateral framework.
Miwa Hirono (Ritsumeikan University)
With the announcement of the AUKUS framework by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, Australia has
decided to jointly develop nuclear submarines. In the background, there is anxiety about the “continued involvement” of theUnited States as an ally.
Takayuki Nagano (Dokkyo University)

This article examines Merkel’s diplomatic skills, including her prioritization of her own economy in the euro crisis and her
diplomacy with China, and her eventual shift to multilateralism with its emphasis on European integration and democracy.
Toshiya Nakamura (Nagoya University)

120

Ethiopia is on the verge of an expanding Civil War: An assessment of one year of the Tigray War

124

Sudan’s democratization process is at a crossroads

130

In Memoriam: Former South African President De Klerk - The wise decision to abolish Apartheid andEthiopia, a major power in East Africa, is in turmoil. The conflict between the Tigray rebels in the north and the Abiy regime hasturned into a full-scale conflict.
Momoka Maki (Sophia University)
In October of this year, just as the process of democratization had begun once again, the national army seized control of thecountry and the process was forced to stall. We will consider the challenges of democratization in Sudan
Kouji Sakane (JICA)

the challenges ahead

Keiichi Shirato (Ritsumeikan University)

136

In Memoriam: Former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell

A proud patriot who carried the responsibility and ethics of a superpower

Ryozo Kato (Former Japanese Ambassador to the United States)

Special Feature:

COP26 and Climate Change
Diplomacy
7

Towards carbon neutrality

14

What was decided in Glasgow: Achievements and challenges of COP26

20

China's policies on climate change: If the state has policies, does the private sector have one?

26

A high hurdle for coal-free India, a giant emerging power

30

Saudi Arabia: The Middle East's largest oil producer sets out climate change measures

32

The reasons for the European gas price spike: A reading from geopolitics and the post-COVID
energy situation

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has imposed a “heavy task” based on science - reducing
CO2 emissions to curb rising temperatures. This article analyzes the twists and turns of the debate to get a better
understanding of COP26, a major turning point.
Takahiro Yamada (Nagoya University)
COP26 was the last chance to achieve the target. Amidst a spreading sense of crisis, the world was able to get to the start line
by confirming the 1.5°C target. The role of the private sector and local governments will become even more important from now on.
Yasuko Kameyama (National Institute for Environmental Studies)
In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China has adopted a “1+N” policy of top-down targets and sectoral measures
domestically. Externally, it aims for global leadership through multilateral cooperation and South-South principles.
Kenji Someno (Waseda University)
At COP26, Prime Minister Modi set a numerical target for the first time - but the road to realization is steep. In addition toclarifying the reality and background of India's economic dependence on coal, this article explores the necessary conditions forthe spread of renewable energy.
Atsushi Fukumi (University of Hyogo)
Saudi Arabia has proposed new climate change measures, but there is a big temperature gap with developed countries.
Furthermore, the distrust of the U.S. Crown Prince has cast a shadow over the country, and it failed to make its presence felt at
COP26. Will Saudi Arabia's initiative to combat climate change continue?
Shigeto Kondo (JIME-IEE Japan)

Gas prices are surging in Europe. The background to this is Russia’s strategy for Nord Stream 2 and the expansion of global
demand for gas and LNG in the post-COVID era.
Yutaka Shirakawa (JOGMEC)

FOCUS◎Preparing for the third term of the Xi Jinping regime
41

China's perception of history is becoming party history: Human resources, economy, and Taiwan
as seen from the "historical resolution”
Xi Jinping has been placed in the history books alongside Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. While looking at the personnel
strategy for next year’s Communist Party Congress, the authors discuss the background of the structure of “Party makes
history.”
Akio Takahara (University of Tokyo) and Shin Kawashima (University of Tokyo)

53

Will the Evergrande Group management crisis become a black swan?

60

Hong Kong's “Patriot Rule” is destroying the foundations of democratization

Will the “gray rhinoceros” (the real estate bubble) that roams over the head of China ever turn into a black swan? The author
examines the distortions in China’s economy and social structure as reflected in the Evergrande Group's business crisis.
Naoto Saito (Daiwa Institute of Research)
Since the enactment and enforcement of the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2008, a large number of pro-democracy
movement leaders and participants have been arrested in Hong Kong and the movement’s infrastructure has been further
dismantled. What is the current state of governance in Hong Kong and the democracy movement?
Akiko Kurata (Tokyo University of Foreign Studies)