ALFP e-magazine issue 2: Climate Change

Can Southeast Asia Respond to Climate Effect?
Saroj Srisai (Thailand)Head, Environment Division, ASEAN Secretariat / ALFP 2017 Fellow

Climate change is proved to be one of the major threats for the Southeast Asia region in the
many decades to come. Those countries, whose coastlines are long and surrounded by water andsea, are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and might suffer higher impacts than thosecountries with shorter coastlines. In particular, the countries that are predicted to be more
vulnerable than others within the region are Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
As most of the countries in Southeast Asia
are still developing, and most economies arestill agriculture-based, climate change willcertainly have both a direct and indirect
impact on their growth. From a study
conducted by the Asian Development Bank,by the end of the 21st century as much as
6.7% of growth might be impacted fromclimate change. The major causes of sucheconomic losses will be the effect of sea level
rise; water shortages that will have an impact
on crop yields and agriculture, and floods
that would certainly damage infrastructure
and plantations. Overall, climate change will
be a major threat to food supplies andfinancial prosperity, which subsequently willhinder all the development and growth ofcountries within Southeast Asia. Following
such losses, the behavior and life patterns ofhumans and living creatures will certainly beimpacted. Various dimensions of change arepredicted, not only economic but also socialand political: the impact is certain to bemassive.

Climate Impact on Forest in Southeast Asia

Economically, it would cost about 2.2% ofGross Domestic Product (GDP) by the year2100. However, this figure only takes into
account the economic concern from markets
and GDP. If we add the factor of health, theimpact would increase to 5.7%, whilebiodiversity losses would further increase theimpact to 6.7% of GDP.
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ALFP e-magazine issue 2: Climate Change

The number will be as high as 7.5% if losses from climate-related disasters are to be included. Insummary, with all of the above-mentioned factors combined, the loss value of GDP at the end of
this century due to climate change far exceeds the projected cost globally of climate change,
which is predicted to be at 2.6% of GDP at the moment.
The average temperature rise until the end of the 21st century is estimated to be 4.8 degrees
Celsius compared to the 1990 level if nothing is done to combat global warming. The countries
in Southeast Asia are likely to suffer from drops in rainfall, which will lead to worse droughts,
more forest fires, more destructive tropical storms, and worse flooding. All of these natural
disasters could displace millions of people, and are likely to make them homeless. In addition, it
could destroy about 965 square miles of mangroves, which are a natural shield for many natural
disasters along the coastlines in the region.
The social structure and behavior of people could also be affected by climate change. Many
residents might be displaced out of their homes, which will certainly have strong effects on their
daily routines and activities, in particular in the case of severe natural disasters. However, normallife activities could also be affected with a gradual temperature rise. An obvious example is thecrop growing patterns, harvesting, and yields that result from the level of humidity, rainfall andtemperature. A shift in the normal season throughout the year will also be common, which mightend up in changes of various activities such as new academic school terms for students andsummer vacation periods, as well as the opening and closures of some natural tourist destinations.
Most politicians in the Southeast Asia region only look at the problem of climate change fromthe environmental angle, while in fact this is wrong. Many other aspects will also need to beconsidered: two prominent ones are unemployment and poverty. Climate impact could easily put
thousands of people unemployed and under the poverty line. An easy example would come fromillegal logging and palm oil plantations, where thousands of villagers live their lives. The
continuation of illegal logging together with deforestation contributes to 75% of emissions within
the region. Without proper measures to solve the problem now, all those villagers will
unavoidably be affected by climate change. They will certainly lose their jobs and will have noway to earn an income.
The comprehensive study by the ASEAN Technical Working Group on Climate Changesuggested that to mitigate the impact of climate change, the following measures are to be taken
seriously and rather quickly: irrigation networks, flood control systems, early warning systems andprotection of coastal mangroves. The study also found that 40% of energy-related carbon
emissions could be reduced by 2025 if countries invested in more energy-efficient buildings, fuelefficient cars and public transport. Diversification of the fuel mix toward renewable energy could
also add another 40% reduction of emissions from the usage of traditional fossil fuels in power
generation.
International cooperation is also a key to success. Climate change is truly a no-boundary problem;
it is indeed a global concern. Though the level of emissions have been minuscule from the© 2018 International House of Japan and Japan Foundation

ALFP e-magazine issue 2: Climate ChangeSoutheast Asia region compared to those of major economies like the United States, China orIndia, the ASEAN countries should get substantial financial assistance in their ambition toward a
low-carbon society, in particular from those developed or richer countries. Global agreements
such as the Paris Climate Agreement adopted in December 2015, certainly prove the vitality of
the world in putting big synergy together towards achieving a reduction of emission levels.
Climate change is no longer an issue of a single big emitting country, nor of regional cooperation,
but it is indeed a truly global issue that needs to be addressed immediately before it is too late.

The contents of this article reflect solely the opinions of the author.

© 2018 International House of Japan and Japan Foundation