GAZA STRIPINTERIMDAMAGEASSESSMENT
SUMMARY NOTEMARCH 29, 2024

Preliminary estimates - October 2023 to January 2024

GAZA STRIP - INTERIMDAMAGE ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY NOTE – MARCH 29, 2024© 2024, the World Bank, the European Union, the United Nations.
The Gaza Strip Interim Damage Assessment was conducted by the World Bank, the European
Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions
expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of
Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or those of the EU or UN.
The World Bank, EU and UN do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this workand accept no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation,
typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work
do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any
territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

Rights and Permissions
The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank, the EU and the UN
encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or inpart, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given and all further
permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The content
of this work does not infringe on the rights of third parties and as such the World Bank, EU,
and UN accept no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses
should be addressed to World Bank Publications, the World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,
Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

Cover Photo Credits:
Destruction of a residential complex following airstrike in Al-Shati refugee camp, Gaza City,
October 2023. By Ahmad Zaqout
A Palestinian girl running in front of a destroyed house in the Nuseirat camp, Gaza Strip,
January 2024. By Majdi Fathi

Disclaimer
This interim damage assessment note provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of theongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip up to the end of January 2024. It depicts a mapping of the
Gaza Strip with an estimate of the cumulative damage for critical sectors, expressed in both
physical and monetary terms, along with an initial assessment of the human and social impacts.
Current sectors being assessed include Housing, Health, Education, Cultural Heritage, Water,
Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), Energy,Transport, Information and CommunicationTechnology(ICT), Municipal Services, Commerce, Industry, and Services, Finance, and Agriculture. The
assessment also includes cross-sectoral themes, such as social and environmental impacts
and an overall macro-economic impact assessment. While the physical and economic impact
assessments are based on data mostly covering the period of October 7, 2023, to January 26,
2024, figures related to the casualties and human impact are current to March 14, 2024.
This interim damage assessment is not a full-fledged Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment(RDNA) which will be carried out when the situation permits. The subsequent RDNA will, in
addition to the physical and monetary damages estimated in this interim assessment, include
the economic and social losses incurred as a result of the conflict, as well as the needs andcosts associated with the restoration of service delivery and recovery and reconstruction
across a broader array of sectors.
The assessment is based on quantitative and qualitative data provided by IPSOS, a market
vendor contracted by the World Bank since early November 2023, which has been further
triangulated and validated by joint World Bank, UN and EU sector teams through other sources.
IPSOS has been a regular contractor with the World Bank assisting in remote baseline anddamage data collection in support of Disaster and/or Conflict Damage and Needs Assessments(e.g., Gaza 2021, Syria earthquake in 2023, Libya floods in 2023).These assessments are basedon Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), multi-spectral, high resolution optical and infrared satellite
imagery, traditional and social media reporting, ground partner information where possible,and data triangulation from various sources, including publicly available non-governmentalorganization (NGO) and humanitarian information.
We note some limitations on the analysis provided in this note. First, the assessment covers
only the Gaza Strip at this stage, and not the West Bank; a full-fledged RDNA to be undertaken
after a cessation of hostilities will also cover the West Bank. Second, the estimated scale ofthe damages is expected to increase because the conflict is still ongoing. Third, on-the-groundteams are currently unable to assess damages directly, due to the security situation. Fourth,
the assessment covers the most critical sectors but does not include all affected sectors,
again because the conflict is ongoing. It is also based on preliminary available baseline data on
assets which will be refined and expanded to other sectors for the full-fledged RDNA. Fifth,
the assessment focuses on conflict-induced physical damages to infrastructure and assets
but does not include the cost of damaged equipment that are critical to make infrastructure
functional, nor the conflict induced economic and social losses. Note that the ultimate fundingneeds for recovery and reconstruction tend to be several multiples higher based on various
RDNA experiences (e.g., for the Gaza conflict in 2014, damages were US$1.4 billion, whileneeds were US$3.9 billion; for the Türkiye/Syria Earthquake in 2022: US$3.7 billion damages
versus US$7.9 billion needs ; for the Libya floods in 2023: US$1 billion damages versus US$1.7
billion needs).

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

1. Executive Summary
The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has caused loss of life, forced displacement,
and damages to social, physical, and productive infrastructure at an unprecedented
speed and scale. The United Nations (UN), European Union (EU) and other humanitarian anddevelopment partners have repeatedly called it an extremely severe humanitarian crisis.1
While physical destruction in Gaza is severe in every sector of the economy, thehousing sector and population centers have sustained the majority of damages. As of
end of January 2024, direct damage of around US$18.5 billion has been inflicted on the built
infrastructure of Gaza, equivalent to 97% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of WestBank & Gaza in 2022. Over four fifths of damages are concentrated in the two sectors ofresidential buildings (72% of the total) and the commerce, industry, and services sector (9%of the total) with the remaining 19% of damages sustained on other critical infrastructure andservices such as education, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), health, energy, Information
and Communication Technology (ICT), municipal services, and transport. Nearly 80% of total
damage occurred in the governorates of Gaza, North Gaza, and Khan Younis.
The conflict has caused an unprecedented and rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis
in Gaza.2 As of March 14, reportedly more than 31,000 people have been killed in Gaza of
which approximately 70% are women and children; 1.7 million people have been displaced.3
According to projections from the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
food insecurity classification, more than half the population of Gaza is on the brink of famine
and the entire population is experiencing acute food insecurity and malnutrition.4 Palestinians
in Gaza now make up 80 percent of all people facing famine or severe hunger worldwide.5
Palestinians in Gaza are receiving less than half the daily water rations they need for shortterm emergency survival6 and further reductions are likely as fuel supplies dwindle. Morethan 1 million people have lost their homes.7 Health service delivery is experiencing major
disruptions as nearly 84% of health facility buildings have been destroyed or damaged andthose remaining lack access to medicines, ambulances, basic lifesaving treatments, electricity
and water. The education system has completely collapsed, with all children out of school andmost schools being used as shelter for internally displaced people (IDP). An estimated 17,000
children have been separated from their families,8 rendering them particularly vulnerable tovarious forms of exploitation and abuse. Owing to pervasive trauma linked to the ongoingviolence mental health has deteriorated severely especially among the vulnerable including
women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities.

1

UN News. World must not look away from humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, UN chief tells Security Council. https://news.un.org/en/
story/2023/11/1144102

2

Ibid.

3

Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) . The United Nations is currently unable to verify the casualty figures issued by the Gaza MoH. Displacement figures arefrom UNRWA.

4

IPC Global Initiative - Special Brief. 18 March 2024. https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Gaza_Strip_Acut

5

OHCHR. Press Release. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/01/over-one-hundred-days-war-israel-destroying-gazas-food-system-and

6

The Gaza population is receiving on average only 3 to 7 liters per capita per day, below the minimum WHO estimates short-term emergency requirementsof 7.5 to 15 liters per capita per day in humanitarian emergencies, and far less than with 50-100 liters needed to ensure basic needs are met and healthconcerns are minimized.

7

World Bank/Ipsos. 7th Bi-weekly report – 27th February.

8

Unicef. Press Release. 02 February 2024. https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/stories-loss-and-grief-least-17000-children-are-estimated-beunaccompanied-or.

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The shock to Gaza’s economy as a result of the ongoing conflict is one of the largest
observed in recent economic history. The majority of Palestinians in Gaza are now
multidimensionally poor9 and 74% are unemployed. Gaza’s GDP dropped by 86% in the lastquarter of 2023, equivalent to a 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop.10 Based on the damage dataand if reconstruction starts after 2024, the economic contraction in Gaza is forecasted toworsen significantly this year, exceeding 50 percent (y-o-y in 2024), as the effects of the capital
destruction linger.11
While recovery and reconstruction will require substantial, years-long effort12, earlyrecovery actions should begin as soon as the situation allows and complement scaled
up humanitarian assistance. Priority early recovery actions that should be considered
include enabling access to, and the resumption of, essential health and education services, toreestablish a sense of normalcy and provide direly needed psychosocial support. The provisionof shelter and rapid, cost-effective, and scalable rehousing solutions for displaced people,
combined with the resumption of basic services in energy, water and telecom sectors should
also be prioritized. In addition to humanitarian assistance and food aid, first stage interventions
should focus on improvements in food production, and the restoration of livelihoods, including
through cash for work programs. To enable the private sector to respond to urgent needs
and create jobs, priority actions may include setting up temporary structures for enterprises
providing essential goods and services (e.g., bakeries, pharmacies, retailers, distributors),setting up digital payment systems to enable electronic transactions, and restoring partiallydamaged facilities. Finally, priorities also include identifying and removing Unexploded
Ordnances (UXO), as well as clearing (and recycling) of approximately 26 million tons of
rubble.13 The feasibility of most of these actions will be highly dependent on entry of materials
and equipment, safe access to sites and clarity of governance and security arrangements.
Global experience and best practices have shown the following principles should beconsidered as recovery plans are developed: (i) balancing urgent needs with medium- andlong-term goals, (ii) ensuring an approach of building back better and more resiliently, (iii)targeting the most vulnerable, and (iv) ensuring inclusive and participatory planning through awhole-of-society approach. Financing and support from development partners, including fromthe region, will be necessary to anchor these efforts. The sheer scale of the needs will requiresignificant private sector investment. A minimum set of conditions for operations will need
to be defined in consultation with relevant authorities and donor partners. Transitioning fromhumanitarian to recovery interventions will depend on a favorable operating environment in
Gaza.

9

Multidimensional poverty includes the dimensions of access to health and education, employment, housing, safety and personal freedom, and monetary
poverty.

10

According to preliminary year-end estimates: PCBS, «The Performance of the Palestinian Economy during 2023 and the economic forecasts for 2024»,
January 2024 https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_ForecastingPCBSE.pdf.

11

The capital stock shock observed in each sector was integrated into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored for Gaza, enabling theestimation of its impact on real GDP (Annex 1). These projections are based on assumptions and may be subject to revisions given the ongoing volatility ofthe situation.

12

This interim damage assessment does not address funding needs for recovery and reconstruction, and a full recovery framework will only be developed
when a complete RDNA can be carried out.

13

World Bank/Ipsos. 7th Bi-weekly report – 27th February.

2

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

2. Introduction
The hostilities since October 7, 2023, have resulted in loss of life at an unprecedented
scale and a deep humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As of March 14, fatalities include over
1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, and more than 31,000 Palestinians in Gaza.14 In addition,some 250 people, including both Israelis and foreign nationals, were abducted and taken as
hostages into Gaza, some of whom have been subsequently released, while others have diedin captivity. Approximately 1.7 million people (or around 75 percent of the population) are
internally displaced in Gaza. Overall, the period of violent conflict from October 2023 to thepresent is the most deadly and destructive episode in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict by orders of magnitude.
Hospitals, schools, UN facilities, and other protected sites continue to be severely
impacted by the conflict, as a result service delivery as well as the delivery ofhumanitarian aid is impeded or halted. The acute shortage of electricity supply or fuel for
backup electricity generators has had a severe impact on patient care, including for newborns.
A sharp increase in infectious diseases has been observed,15 due to overcrowding in hospitals,
destruction of water and sanitation systems, and decreased availability of health services.
The minimal availability of food, drinking water, and cooking gas across Gaza is causing
severe levels of food insecurity as families run out of ways to cope while living in
extremely dire conditions. The amount of humanitarian aid that is reaching Palestinians
in Gaza is deeply inadequate relative to the needs. According to projections from the latest
IPC food insecurity classification, about 2.13 million people across the Gaza Strip faced highlevels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (crisis or worse) between 15
February and 15 March, including nearly 677,000 experiencing catastrophic food insecurity(IPC Phase 5)16 characterized by lack of food, starvation, and exhaustion of coping capacities.
The current available water supply is estimated to be around 3 to 7 liters per capita per day(lcd) for the internally-displaced population.17 Desperation and scarcity have led to a near total
breakdown in law and order. Heavy rains flooded the makeshift tent camps, forcing children,
parents, and the elderly to sleep in the mud.
The UN and its humanitarian partners are working to deliver humanitarian support at an
unprecedented cost in terms of human lives lost. The focus of the UN is on providing food,shelter, medicine, and water/sanitation – but the capacity to deliver depends on coordinatedhumanitarian movements, effective deconfliction with the parties, and greater access to thenecessary supplies and equipment. Over 161 UN staff have been killed in Gaza so far – thelargest single loss of life in the history of the organization. UN facilities, partner facilities, andrelated member state facilities have been severely damaged, considerably slowing down thehumanitarian response. Given the overall destruction of road infrastructure, more crossings
into Gaza need to be opened to allow humanitarians to reach all people in need.
In February 2024, UN OCHA and the Humanitarian Country Team extended its US$1.23
billion “Flash Appeal for the Occupied Palestinian Territory” through March 2024.18
Additional appeals are planned on a quarterly basis. The current Flash Appeal supports
14

UNOCHA. Flash update. 14 March 2024. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day

15

WHO. Lethal combination of hunger and disease to lead to more deaths in Gaza. https://www.who.int/news/item/21-12-2023-lethal-combination-ofhunger-and-disease-to-lead-to-more-deaths-in-gaza

16

IPC Global Initiative - Special Brief. 18 March 2024. https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Gaza_Strip_Acute_Food_Insecurity_
Feb_July2024_Special_Brief.pdf

17

WASH Cluster State of Palestine. Preliminary Findings of the First and Second Round of Rapid WASH Assessment for IDP sites in Rafah. February 2024

18

UN OCHA. Flash Appeal for the Occupied Palestinian Territory. February 2024. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/flash-appeal-2023-extension-throughmarch-2024

3

INTRODUCTION

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and requests
US$1.23 billion to meet critical needs of 2.7 million people (2.2 million in the Gaza Strip and
500,000 in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem). As of February 26, 2024, member
states disbursed nearly US$907 million against the Appeal (74 per cent). Additional details areavailable through the Flash Appeal Financial Tracking dashboard. Member states are strongly
encouraged to provide additional funding to the humanitarian system supporting operations in
Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, given the unprecedented scale and intensityof the crisis. Supporting the humanitarian response must be a strong focus of the international
community for the foreseeable future. However, in parallel, it will be also critical to undertake
timely planning and preparation for the recovery, in order to be ready for implementation assoon as conditions on the ground permit.
The World Bank, EU, and UN have conducted the Interim Damage Assessment, theresults of which are presented in this report, to provide a comprehensive preliminary
analysis of the damages from the conflict to date and their human and economic
impacts. While reports have highlighted the extensive scale of the crisis and its human andsocio-economic impact,19 this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the unprecedented
scale of destruction in terms of infrastructure, productive assets, and service delivery, linking
them to the overall human and economic impacts. The purpose of the assessment is toinform national stakeholders and the international community of the preliminary extent ofdamage caused by the conflict both in physical and monetary terms, to serve as a ready basis
for supporting and facilitating the forthcoming RDNA as well as the subsequent process ofdeveloping a roadmap for recovery. This exercise also supports the goals of the partners andthe international community of remaining engaged during conflict and crisis situations, and toprovide financing and analytical support in contexts affected by fragility, conflict, and violence.20
This interim damage assessment provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of theongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip up to the end of January 2024. It depicts a mappingof the Gaza Strip with an estimate of the cumulative infrastructure damages21 for criticalsectors, expressed in both physical and monetary terms, along with an initial assessmentof the human and social impacts. Current sectors being assessed include Housing, Health,
Education, Cultural Heritage, WASH, Energy, Transport, ICT, Municipal Services, Commerce,
Industry, and Services, Finance, and Agriculture. The assessment also includes cross-sectoral
themes, such as social and environmental impacts, and an overall macro-economic impact
assessment. While the physical and economic impact assessments are based on data mostly
covering the period of October 7, 2023, to January 26, 2024, figures related to the casualties
and human impact are current to March 14, 2024. This interim damage assessment is not a
full-fledged Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA), which will be carried out when thesituation permits.The subsequent RDNA will, in addition to the physical and monetary damages
estimated in this interim assessment, include the economic and social losses incurred as aresult of the conflict, as well as the needs and costs associated with the restoration of service
delivery and recovery and reconstruction across a broader array of sectors. The limitations of
the methodology are noted in the disclaimer at the beginning of this publication. The World
Bank, EU, and UN believe that this assessment provides a critical, if interim, anchor for recovery
planning for post-conflict Gaza.

19

UNDP. Gaza war: Expected Socio-economic Impacts on State of Palestine. November 9,2023. https://www.undp.org/arab-states/publications/gaza-warexpected-socio-economic-impacts-state-palestine.

20

World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025 https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/699521582773856417-0090022020/
original/FCVStrategyDigital.pdf

21

Damage refers to complete or partial destruction of physical assets and is estimated at the pre-conflict replacement values of damaged assets.

4

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

3. Summary of Assessment
a. Overview
Prior to the conflict, years of Israeli closures in Gaza and recurring economic and conflictrelated shocks had resulted in persistently high levels of poverty, unemployment, andlow economic development. Preliminary assessments indicate that more than 63% of the
population in Gaza was living in poverty on the eve of the conflict, with 8 out of 10 individuals
receiving some form of aid. Unemployment rates in Gaza were alarming, reaching 45.1% in
September 2023, with youth unemployment at 59.5%. The Israeli closure regime severely
limited the flow of people and goods, private sector activity, and access to finance. Whileagriculture offered employment opportunities and provided food to a substantial share of the
population, the sector faced numerous challenges, including limited access to arable land,
water resources, and fertilizers and other inputs, as well restrictions on movement. Prior to theconflict, over half of the population in Gaza was structurally dependent on humanitarian foodassistance.22 Around 1.5 million people in Gaza are registered refugees who have historicallyreceived education, health, poverty benefits, employment, and other services from the United
Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).23
Gaza’s isolation and poverty, combined with rapid population growth, created a situation
where a significant share of the population was unable to access basic services. The
education sector was facing a learning crisis driven by systemic challenges and suffering from alack of sufficient school buildings, leading to the practice of double shifts. The health system inGaza was not able to serve the health needs of the population as a result of the closures, which
limited the availability of medical expertise and the entry of spare parts for medical equipment,
constrained fiscal space for health24, and limited the ability of patients in Gaza to access medical
facilities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The Gaza Strip also experienced a significant
housing shortage and overcrowding. Severe electricity and water shortages had resulted invery low levels of basic service delivery, while undermining human capital development andslowing economic growth. Less than 35% of the Gaza Strip’s electricity demand was provided
for through the local power plant with limited capacity and electricity imports from Israel, bothof which ceased immediately after the conflict began in October 2023. Availability of water in
Gaza was estimated at 90 Liters Per Capita Per day, well below the conventional definition ofwater scarcity. Moreover, the water was of poor quality, which translated to only 6% of the
Gaza population having access to safely managed, piped drinking water. Gaza is the only placein the world that still relies on obsolete 2G technology and has no mobile broadband coverage.
The road network was also deteriorating, due to years of insufficient budgets for maintenanceand periodic rehabilitation, recurring conflict, and major constraints in the entry of construction
materials.

22

WFP. Gaza Food Security Assessment.December 2023. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000154766/download/?_ga=2.266037894.848320036.1706814030-1864791366.1696958122

23

https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/gaza-strip

24

World Bank (2023). Overcoming the Obstacles on the Path to Universal Health Coverage: An Analysis of the Palestinian Health System. Health- Public
Expenditure Review & Health Cluster, World Health Organization, 2022.

5

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

Overall damage costs/ and breakdown by sector
This interim damage assessment estimates that around US$18.5 billion in direct
damages has been caused to the built infrastructure of the Gaza Strip by end of January
2024. This is equivalent to around 97% of the total 2022 GDP of the West Bank and Gaza
Strip25. The results show that the physical and the corresponding monetary impacts caused by
the conflict are dominated by damages to residential buildings (72% of the total), followed bydamages to the physical assets of the Commerce, Industry, and Services sector (9% of thetotal), while effects on other critical infrastructure such as education, WASH, health, energy,
ICT, municipal services, transport account for the remaining 19% (figure 2). The sectors withthe highest estimated damage include housing with approximately US$13.29 billion and theCommerce, Industry, and Services sector with US$1.65 billion followed by agriculture with
US$629 million, Health at US$554 million, WASH at US$503 million, environment (incl. theremoval of rubble) at US$411 million, transport at US$358 million, and education at US$341
million (figure 1).
SectorHousing
Commerce, Industry, and Services
Agriculture
Health
WASH
Environment
Transport
Education
Cultural Heritage
EnergyICT
Municipal Services
Finance
Total

US$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Figure 1: Estimated damages in monetary terms (US$) by sectors

25 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=PS

6

13,298,711,000
1,655,486,000
628,780,000
553,666,000
502,711,000
411,300,000
357,972,000
341,240,000
319,397,000
278,522,000
90,225,000
19,647,000
8,174,000
18,465,831,000

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Commerce, Industry, andServices
Agriculture Health
9.0%
3.4%
3.0%
WASH
2.7%
Housing
72.0%

Environment
Transport
2.2%
1.9%

Education
1.8%

Cultural Heritage
1.7%
Energy
1.5%

ICT
0.5%

Municipal Services
0.1%
Finance
0.0%

Figure 2: Proportion of estimated total damages per sector

Breakdown by Governorate/Municipalities
To date, 80 % of total damages were concentrated in the governorates of Gaza, North
Gaza, and KhanYounis (figure 3). The most severely affected municipalities are Gaza (including
the Gaza Industrial Estate), Jabalya, and Khan Younis (figure 4). However, significant damages
are also observed in other municipalities, including Beit Lahiya and Rafah. The municipality ofGaza alone accounted for US$7.29 billion of total damage, with Jabalya following at US$2.01
billion, Khan Younis at US$1.82 million, and Beit Lahiya accounting for US$1.08 billion of thetotal. The estimated costs presented in this note are expected to increase substantially alongwith the magnitude of damages as the conflict continues. This is particularly true in the southof the Gaza Strip which has seen greater destruction in recent weeks. The upcoming RDNA, tobe carried out when conditions allow, will update the information provided in this report.

7

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

Figure 3: Share of total damage (US$) in each municipality

8

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Governorate

Municipality

US$

Khan Younis

Abasan al Jadida

152,525,000

Khan Younis

Abasan al-Kabira

365,411,000

Deir Al-Balah

Al Bureij Camp316,292,000

Khan Younis

Al Fukhkhari

116,244,000

Deir Al-Balah

Al Maghazi Camp87,017,000

Gaza

Al Mughraqa

81,959,000

Deir Al-Balah

Al Musaddar

183,503,000

Khan Younis

Al Qarara

300,270,000

North Gaza

Al Qaraya al Badawiya

49,808,000

Rafah

Al Shukaa

305,661,000

Gaza

Al Zahra

41,779,000

Rafah

An Naser113,715,000

Deir Al-Balah

An Nuseirat Camp285,604,000

Deir Al-Balah

Az Zawayda

286,033,000

Khan Younis

Bani Suheila

657,064,000

North Gaza

Beit Hanoun

627,292,000

North Gaza

Beit Lahiya

1,082,401,000

Deir Al-Balah

Deir al Balah

417,889,000

Gaza

Gaza (incl GIE)

7,287,472,000

North Gaza

Jabalya

2,008,262,000

Khan Younis

Khan Yunis

1,824,869,000

Khan Younis

Khuza'a

186,504,000

Rafah

Rafah

987,560,000

Deir Al-Balah

Wadi as Salqa

43,051,000

Gaza

Wadi Gaza

52,126,000

UnallocatedUnallocated605,520,000

Total

18,465,831,000

Figure 4: Share of total damage (US$) by municipalities

Comparison with the 2021 and 2014 conflicts
The level of destruction in the Gaza strip since October 2023 is unprecedented. In thesocial sectors alone, damages are more than 90 times higher than damages during the 2021
conflict and 17 times higher from the 2014 conflict (figure 5). The total cost of damages asof end of January, 2024, is approximately US$18.5 billion compared to the US$338 million
in damages caused during the 2021 conflict and US$1.38 billion during the 2014 conflict.
Housing sector damages, at US$13.29 billion, have been particularly extreme so far compared
to previous episodes, such as the US$144 million estimated following the 2021 conflict. In
the Commerce, Industry, and Services sector, the cost of US$1.65 billion, are over 41 times
greater in the present conflict than the US$40 million estimated after the 2021 conflict.
Damage to infrastructure sectors during this ongoing conflict is more than nine times greaterthan following the 2014 conflict.

9

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

SUMMARY
Damages (US$)
Sector

2014

2021

2024

Housing$780,000,000$144,874,400$13,298,711,000

Health$24,000,000$12,869,276$553,666,000

Education$35,000,000$3,063,111$341,240,000

Cultural Heritage$1,200,000$-$319,397,000

Social Sectors Total$840,200,000$160,806,787$14,513,014,000$-$24,972,143$19,647,000

Transport$42,000,000$19,549,400$357,972,000

Water and Sanitation$33,000,000$13,540,400$502,711,000

Energy$58,000,000$15,145,000$278,522,000$-$3,550,181$90,225,000$133,000,000$76,757,124$1,249,077,000$-$450,904$8,174,000

Commerce, Industry, and Services$144,000,000$40,000,000$1,655,486,000

Agriculture$266,000,000$42,500,000$628,780,000

Productive Sectors Total$410,000,000$82,950,904$2,292,440,000

Social Sectors

Infrastructure Sectors
Municipal Services

ICT
Infrastructure Sectors Total

Productive Sectors
Finance

Cross-Cutting Sector
Environment$-$17,500,000$411,300,000

Cross-Cutting Sector Total$-$17,500,000$411,300,000$1,383,200,000$338,014,814$18,465,831,000

Grand Total

Figure 5: Summary table depicting comparison of per sector damage in monetary terms in 2014, 2021
and 202426

Damage Trends – Monthly Progression of Physical Damage across Sectors(October 2023 to January 2024)
As of end of January, more than 60% of the physical infrastructure in all sectors, except
WASH, has been damaged or destroyed (figure 6). In WASH, 57% of infrastructure has beendamaged, while more than 70% of the physical infrastructure in the Health sector, Commerce,
Industry, and Services sector, ICT sector, and Municipal services sectors has been damaged or
destroyed. Physical damages across all critical sectors rose sharply over the first two monthsof the conflict. In recent months, the pace of destruction has attenuated, but, as the conflictremains active, damages are likely to continue increasing significantly. In several sectors, therate of damage appears to be leveling off due to the fact that a majority of assets have alreadybeen damaged or destroyed.
26

10

For the purposes of this assessment, the municipal sector excludes municipal WASH and roads infrastructure which are currently covered in the respective
sectors, while it was included in 2021 and 2014. The scope of the sector assessment will be refined in the upcoming RDNA

7.5%
9.7%
3.1%
2.7%

39.6%
10.8%
24.3%
24.3%

43.9%
12.4%
26.5%
24.3%

48.2%
15.1%
29.9%
29.8%

49.9%
16.2%
31.3%
31.4%

58.1%
22.4%
36.5%
36.8%

63.1%
27.4%
40.9%
40.5%

65.8%
29.7%
43.2%
42.8%

65.8%
35.5%
46.9%
45.8%

65.8%
41.7%
51.1%
48.8%

65.8%
43.6%
51.9%
49.5%

68.1%
51.7%
53.9%
50.6%

72.0%
54.4%
54.9%
51.4%

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Impact (Damaged and Destroyed) Percentage by Sector
12 October - 21 January 2024
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
12-Oct 13-Oct 17-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 6-Nov 10-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 4-Dec 12-Dec 16-Dec 24-Dec 9-Jan 21-Jan
EnergyHealth

Education

WASH

Commerce

ICT

Municipal Services

Transport

Housing

Figure 6: Impact Percentage by Sector since beginning of Conflict (Source: World Bank/IPSOS)

b. Snapshot by sector
Housing
The ongoing conflict has damaged or destroyed approximately 62% of all homes inGaza, equivalent to 290,820 housing units, at an estimated value of US$13.3 billion.
Housing sector damages constitute 72% of the total damages incurred from the ongoing
hostilities. Among the affected housing units, 76% are fully destroyed, and 24% are partly
damaged. Damages to apartments constitute 82% of the total damage. Nearly 75% of thetotal damage cost is concentrated in Gaza City, Jabalya, Khan Younis, Beit Lahiya and Rafah
Municipalities. A temporal analysis highlights a spike in destroyed housing units in Gaza andNorth Gaza Governorates as well as Khan Younis from mid-November onwards. As a result,by end-January 2023, more than 1.08 million people will not be able to return to their homes
as they have been destroyed or rendered otherwise uninhabitable. This number continues
to increase27 leading to further short and long-term economic impoverishment, heightening
safety, and security risks, and causing a loss of dignity (figure 7).

27  World Bank/Ipsos. 7th Bi-weekly report – 27th February.

11

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

Figure 7: Population of Gaza without a Home

HealthThe conflict has damaged or destroyed 84% of all health facilities at a cost of U$554
million28 severely impacting Gaza’s health system. 649 health facilities have been affected.
29 hospitals, representing more than three quarter of the hospitals, have suffered over US$222
million in damage. Health centers, clinics, and pharmacies have also incurred significant
damages, exacerbating the challenge of providing medical services. Remaining functional
health facilities and hospitals continue to face the lack or shortage of electricity supply or fuelfor backup electricity generators. The municipality of Gaza City bears the highest burden of
the destruction with an estimated US$276 million worth of damages. In combination with theextreme levels of violent deaths and injuries, and the mass displacement, and overcrowding,this has caused extremely concerning health consequences. Destruction and continuing
hostilities are gravely obstructing ambulance access to the injured and health facilities. 659
people have been killed in attacks on healthcare, 843 injured and 98 ambulances destroyed ordamaged.29

Education
For a 15-year-old student living in Gaza, the current conflict would be the fifth and mostdevastating conflict she or he has lived through with the education system coming to
a complete halt. Damage to education infrastructure amounts to US$341 million. The
education system in Gaza has effectively collapsed, impacting all of the 625,000 students
and 22,564 teachers. An estimated 56 school facilities have been destroyed, and 219 havebeen partially damaged. Many remaining schools are being used as shelters for IDPs. Tertiary
education institutions have significantly suffered too, with an estimated 17 universities
28

This conservative figure excludes the cost of health machinery and equipment, and medication stocks.

29WHO, oPt Emergency Situation Update.as of 20 February 2024. https://www.emro.who.int/images/stories/Sitrep_-_issue_23.pdf

12

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

and college campuses, 63% of the assessed campuses, destroyed or partially damaged.
Casualties among students and teachers continue to rise, emphasizing the profound humanimpact of the crisis. Children, including those living in shelters, are exhibiting alarming signs ofemotional distress and trauma. The psychosocial impact of the conflict on children and youth
are summarized in sections below.

Cultural Heritage
Numerous sites of significant heritage value, representing diverse historical periods
and cultures, have been destroyed or severely damaged. An initial assessment of the
impact on significant heritage properties indicates an estimated damage of US$319
million30. Notable sites destroyed or damaged include the Anthedon Harbor—included on
the tentative Palestinian list31 in 2012 for potential nomination for inscription on UNESCO’s
World Heritage List; the Roman cemetery in Gaza City; Al Pasha Palace Museum; the ancient
Samaritan Bathhouse, and other landmarks. About 63% of all heritage sites have sustained
damage, out of which 31% have been destroyed.32 Of the assessed cultural properties, 15
out of 17 buildings of significant heritage value have been partially damaged, with 124 historic
residences damaged and 34 destroyed. Additionally, 4 out of 10 identified archaeologicalsites have been damaged, while 2 incurred large scale destruction. Furthermore, 11 out of 12
assessed religious heritage sites are damaged, including Saint Porphyrios Orthodox Church
Complex, considered the world’s third oldest church, and the Great Al Omari Mosque, Gaza’s
oldest mosque. Two national monuments have also been destroyed, including the Rashad
Ash-Shawwa cultural center.33 In addition, the activities of several cultural centers in the Gaza
Strip have been suspended, which has direct impact on the livelihoods of artists and culturalprofessionals, many of whom have also lost their lives.

Figure 8: The 17th Century Al’Pasha Palace Museum has been destroyed
30

With regards to archaeological sites specifically, it should be noted that as the unit cost was applied to the total area of these sites and not only to the areaof visible archaeological remains, therefore the estimated damage costs may be a high estimate which will be refined in the upcoming RDNA.

31

A tentative List includes properties which the concerned party consider to be cultural and/or natural heritage of potential outstanding universal value andtherefore suitable for possible nomination to the World Heritage List. The publication of the Tentative Lists does not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever of the World Heritage Committee or of the World Heritage Centre or of the Secretariat of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its boundaries.

32

Baseline for the Cultural Heritage Sector is shared by UNESCO for this assessment.

33

While the present assessment remains interim, UNESCO, in partnership with UNITAR/UNOSAT, has identified additional and significant damages to cultural
heritage sites, including religious sites, buildings of historical or artistic interest, depositories of movable cultural property, monuments, museums, andarchaeological sites. These damages will be reflected in future assessments.

13

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

Commerce, Industry, Services and Financial sector
Nearly four in five Commerce, Industry, and Services sector establishments have beendamaged or destroyed at a cost of US$1.65 billion impacting all industries, forcing
economic activities to a halt, and driving a more than 50% rise in unemployment. There
are an estimated 56,000 Commerce, Industry, and Services establishments in Gaza employing
173,000 people (e.g., wholesale and retail trade activities, services sectors, industry sector,
construction, transport and storage, telecommunications, and finance and insurance). Nearly
80% of the 49,000 assessed facilities, i.e 39,000 establishment have been destroyed ordamaged. The widespread destruction and damage to businesses has significantly disrupted
economic activity and caused short-to-medium term business closures that have led to a risein unemployment, loss of livelihoods, and decline in income levels. Loss of incomes also
places additional burdens on women, affecting their economic opportunities, safety, and wellbeing. The informal economy, already quite widespread in Gaza pre-conflict, is expected to
become more prevalent as people seek alternative means of income generation.This increased
competition for livelihoods could lead to increased vulnerability and reduced job security forworkers already engaged in the informal sector. The private sector’s capacity to produce anddistribute goods and services has been significantly disrupted by the conflict. With supply
chains severed, availability of essential goods and services is at present almost non-existentin many parts of Gaza.

Figure 9. Satellite image showing the complete destruction of the Gaza Industrial Estate (GazaGovernorate). Source: UNOSAT-UNIDO Joint Assessment, February 3. 2024

14

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Agriculture
The agricultural sector shows substantial levels of destruction, with overall estimateddamages of U$629 million, threatening livelihoods and aggravating food insecurity ofthe entire population. Most of the monetary damages are related to the destruction of trees,
agricultural holdings, greenhouses, retail establishments and irrigation infrastructure. Morethan 60% of the damages have occurred in the North Gaza and Khan Younis Governorates.
The production of agricultural products, and thus food, has virtually ceased, forcing the entire
population to depend on food aid, which faces severe delivery challenges related both to theentry inspections regime and the destruction of infrastructure within the strip. A large share of
critical retail business in Gaza’s food value chain, such as bakeries and food shops, have also
been destroyed. Given that most assets and infrastructure relevant for the agricultural sector
have been damaged or destroyed, the sector’s functionality and service delivery is dramatically
impacted, threatening food security and the livelihoods of the entire population. Those who
depend on the agri-food value chain for their livelihoods can no longer rely on it, fueling a cycleof unemployment, poverty, and food insecurity.

Basic services: WASH, Energy, Municipal Services
The energy, water and municipal sectors34 have been affected by damages estimatedat nearly US$800 million, forcing basic service delivery to a halt and hindering relief
activities with rapidly increasing multi-dimensional poverty as a result. The electricity
sector suffers severe damage, with an initial estimate of US$279 million, primarily affecting
electricity grid distribution networks as well as off-grid distributed rooftop solar photovoltaic
systems that are deployed across Gaza in public buildings like schools, hospitals and healthfacilities, water supply facilities, cultural buildings, as well as residential buildings. An estimated510 km of the electricity distribution network has been destroyed or damaged (61.5% of thetotal). The Gaza Power Plant has been impacted but it is difficult to know the severity of thedamage due to limited access and low data availability. An almost total power blackout since
the first week of the current conflict has had a widespread and devastating ripple effect on
day-to-day life in Gaza as it has affected almost all other vital sectors such as health, water,
communication, municipal services and the private sector. Around 57% of water infrastructure
and assets have been destroyed or partially damaged, including the desalination plants in thenorthern and middle areas, 162 water wells, and two of the three connections with Mekorot,
Israel’s national water company that supplies water to Gaza, resulting in a loss of over US$503
million. The WASH system has almost completely collapsed, and the current water production
capacity is estimated at below 5% of the usual output and progressively decreasing every day.
Gaza’s municipal infrastructure including 5 out of 6 solid waste management facilities bears
substantial damage, estimated at US$19.6 million, with Gaza City alone accounting for 37%
of this total.

Connectivity: Transport, ICT
The damages to the transport and ICT sectors are estimated at US$448 million, affecting
communication, mobility, and the provision of humanitarian aid to the population.
Transport sector damages amount to around US$358 million, affecting 62% of roads, including
92% of primary roads, and a significant proportion of vehicles. This has a profound effect not
only on the mobility of the population but also on the ability of relief aid and necessary social
services to reach vulnerable populations. The loss of both vehicles and key infrastructure will
also make reconstruction and recovery in other sectors more challenging. The ICT sector
damages are estimated at US$90 million. This includes damages to about 75% of the mobile
34

For the purposes of this assessment, the municipal sector includes solid waste landfills, and transfer stations, municipal buildings, parks, and markets, andexcludes municipal WASH and roads infrastructure which are currently covered in the respective sectors. The scope of the assessment will be refined in theupcoming RDNA.

15

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

and fixed communications networks as well as nearly all facilities and warehouses of thetelecom operators.This has resulted in massive interruption of mobile and internet connectivity
services in Gaza with severe impacts on the daily life of the population in Gaza, by making it
impossible to reach emergency and rescue services. It also affected operational activitiesof the humanitarian aid organizations working in Gaza, jeopardizing the already constrained
provision of life-saving assistance. The psychological impact on civilians unable to reach theirrelatives cannot be underestimated.

Environment (Cross cutting theme)
Environmental damages are estimated at US$411 million, adversely affecting physicalassets such as coastal areas, water, soil, agricultural fields, and the Wadi Gaza nature
reserve, along with vital ecosystem services. Key areas of damages include (i) groundwatercontamination; (ii) pollution and hazardous wastes including UXO, medical waste and industrial
pollution, (iii) coastal zone destruction (e.g., Port Gaza), damages to the marine environment,
and destruction of fishing boats/equipment and landing sites. Gaza’s wastewater networks, 3
out of 6 treatment facilities, and 5 out of 6 waste management sites have been damaged or
destroyed, causing high levels of pollution of surface and groundwater, coastal waters, andsoils with severe impacts on human health. According to World Bank/IPSOS, more than 25%
of Wadi Gaza, a wetland area, is destroyed and with it the ecosystem services it provided.
Munitions and chemicals severely pollute the soil air, and water, with implications for humanhealth, agriculture, and food safety. They also further contaminate Gaza’s scarce water
resources, which have already been described as largely unsuitable for human consumption
even prior to the conflict. Because of the bombardments, there is an enormous volume ofdebris, estimated at 26 million tons (almost two times than in Aleppo, Syria: 14 million tons –source: UNEP), destroyed facilities now leaking petrol and other hazardous materials, and highlevels of air, water, and land pollution to which people in Gaza are now exposed on a daily basis.
The removal of rubbles alone would cost around US$327 million and would require a years-longeffort. The destruction does not only negatively impact the physical environmental assets but
also hinders vital services and source of livelihood that ecosystems provide to the populationof Gaza. The impact on fishing boats and landing sites is resulting in losses of income forfishermen and those involved in value-addition as well as increased food insecurity.

c. Human and Social Impact
Human toll
Beyond damages to physical assets, the current conflict is exacting a heavy human tollin Gaza. All of Gaza’s population has seen its physical, economic, and psychosocial wellbeing directly and profoundly affected by the conflict. As of March 14, 2024, more than
31,000 (70% of those killed are women and children)35 have reportedly been killed with morecivilians under the rubble or reported missing.36 There are reports of thousands of children andadults acquiring life-long impairments due to injuries. However, with the scale of injuries andthe devastation faced by the health system, the actual number of newly acquired disabilities
is unknown at this time.37 Approximately 1.7 million people (75% of Gaza’s population) are
estimated to be internally displaced, many of them have been displaced multiple times andliving in conditions with no basic human necessities.38
35

Gaza Ministry of Health36

WHO. oPt Emergency Situation Update, As of 20 February 2024. https://www.emro.who.int/images/stories/Sitrep_-_issue_23.pdf

37

ACAPS, Palestine: Impact of the conflict on people with disabilities in the Gaza Strip, February 2024.  Atfaluna Society for Deaf Children: Inclusive Needs
Assessment, Situation of the conflict-affected person with and without disabilities in the Gaza Strip, March 2024.

38

Ibid. WHO. oPt Emergency Situation Update, As of 20 February 2024. https://www.emro.who.int/images/stories/Sitrep_-_issue_23.pdf.

16

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Human capital accumulation in Gaza suffered extremely high setbacks. For students in
Gaza, this year marks the third year out of the last four that their education has been severely
disrupted and or completely interrupted. Currently, 100% of children in Gaza are out of school(approximately 625,000 students).39 To date, half a year of schooling is effectively lost, leaving
school-aged children missing critical instructional hours and losing foundational skills essential
to achieve a better livelihood in their future. Likely at least a full year of schooling will be lost,
putting the education system at significant risk of massive dropouts as students become
unable to return to school even after the current conflict ends. The education system will takeyears to operate even at pre-conflict levels. Surviving students and teachers are experiencing
psychosocial trauma with varying levels of severity.
The conflict has caused major disruption to health service delivery and inflictedwidespread trauma, imperiling physical and mental health against a backdrop ofincreased needs. Around 350,000 residents with chronic disease have extremely limitedaccess to their medications and essential medical procedures such as dialysis.40 Due toovercrowding and poor sanitary conditions in UNRWA and other shelters and informal
settlements, particularly in the south, syndromic disease surveillance has demonstrated
increases in infectious diseases, including acute respiratory infections, diarrheal disease,chickenpox, and acute jaundice syndrome and meningitis. Acute malnutrition is becominga very serious health concern. Severe stressors for mental health, such as the ongoingbombardment and imposed effective siege, are affecting the whole population. Crucially, sincechildren are more susceptible to the effect of fear and trauma, the conflict is more likely toderail the life trajectory for those who experience it early in life.

Social inclusion and mental health
The ongoing conflict has unleashed unprecedented devastation, causing severe socialand mental health consequences for women, youth, and vulnerable populations. Trauma
pervades Palestinian society in Gaza today due to the large number of people killed andinjured, multiple forced displacements, a continuing lack of security and safety, limited accessto basic needs and facilities. Men and boys are more exposed to physical danger in the publicsphere and frontline emergency response efforts and generally face increased risks of injury
and death from armed confrontations and UXO. Women and girls are especially vulnerable
in living conditions with limited privacy that increase the potential of gender-based violencein the absence of risk mitigation measures that are currently unavailable. Even prior to theconflict, young Palestinians in Gaza faced high unemployment, recurrent conflict, and mental
health challenges, all of which had limited their prospects. The conflict has terminated any
dignified, safe, and stable career/job prospects for youth, due to its punishing toll on Gaza’s
economy, infrastructure, and education system affecting 80,000 higher education students.
The widescale destruction of built cultural heritage and the inability to resume cultural practices
has a additional important impact on youth and the broader social fabric by impacting collective
identity and memory, connections with places, and social cohesion.

39

Save the Children. Life in Gaza: What’s It Like for Children Growing Up in Conflict? https://www.savethechildren.org/us/charity-stories/life-for-childrengrowing-up-conflict-gaza

40

HelpAge. The Long Road Ahead: Rebuilding the Health Sector in Gaza. 15 February 2024.

17

SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT

Of the approximately 980 registered NGOs in Gaza,41 the majority have ceased operations.
While the full extent of the impacts of the conflict is yet to be determined, it has disrupted
ongoing programs and activities, and inflicted significant damage on facilities, affecting
physical infrastructure and organizational capacities. This includes the loss of headquarters,
displacement of staff, and interruptions in communications. Vulnerable groups, particularly
children, women, and persons with disabilities that relied heavily on services provided by the
NGO sector, are not only bearing the brunt of these disruptions but are in fact in even moredire and expanded need of services provided by the NGO sector.

Direct and indirect impact of the hostilities on women and children and the mostvulnerable
An estimated 17,000 children have been separated from their families, rendering them
particularly vulnerable to various forms of exploitation and abuse.42 Such ‘Unaccompanied
and Separated Children/(UASC) may also be burdened with adult responsibilities far beyond
their years including seeking basic necessities and essential services on their own and caring
for younger siblings. Before the conflict, it was estimated that a total of 25,000 orphans
between the age of 0 and 18 lived in Gaza. As a result of the conflict additional 17,000 children
have been separated from their families, many of who are new orphans.43 There were only fourorphanage homes available in Gaza prior to the conflict, with a combined capacity of 2,800.
More than 690,000 menstruating women and adolescent girls in Gaza are suffering fromthe lack of menstrual hygiene supplies and water which negatively affects their hygiene andhealth, raising the risk of infection. Additionally, thousands of pregnant women will give birthin the coming months and have no access to adequate medical care for themselves or theirnewborn babies. Mental health issues among children have escalated significantly, with over a
million now in dire need of psychological support. Constituting 2.6% of Gaza’s population prior
to the conflict (including 22% children and 1.7% young people), challenges for persons withdisabilities have worsened, including difficulties in evacuation, unsuitable shelters, and loss of
assistive devices. Children with disabilities who have lost caregivers face greater challenges
in accessing essential services and protection from violence. The elderly in Gaza, representing
4% of the total population in 2019, and particularly those with disabilities or chronic illnesses,
face heightened vulnerability exacerbated by displacement, loss of support networks anddestruction of health facilities.
The direct and indirect impact of the hostilities on women is of particular concern.
Women and girls are especially vulnerable in living conditions with limited privacy. The risksof violence against women and girls are heightened in shelters, with reports of increased
emotional/psychological violence and harassment. Such risks are further exacerbated for
those with disabilities and especially in overcrowded shelters. The ongoing conflict continues
to tear families apart, leaving deep socioemotional consequences at the community, family,
and individual levels.

41

Raed Awashreh. “Palestinian NGO Sector: Development & Major Characteristics.” 2020. Journal of Asian Multicultural Research for Social Sciences Study.
Vol. 1 No. 2, 2020 (page 025-036)

42

WHO. oPt Emergency Situation Update as of of 20 February 2023.

43

Ibid.

18

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Food insecurity
The food security crisis in Gaza has reached tragic levels and people are turning tosevere coping mechanisms to manage the lack of food. According to projections from thelatest IPC food insecurity classification, about 2.13 million people across the Gaza Strip facedhigh levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (crisis or worse) between
15 February and 15 March, including nearly 677,000 experiencing catastrophic food insecurity(IPC Phase 5). Palestinians in Gaza now make up to 80 per cent of all people facing famine orsevere hunger worldwide.44 According to UNICEF, nearly 16 percent - or 1 in 6 children under2 years of age - are acutely malnourished. Similar screenings conducted in Rafah, where aid
has been more available, found 5 per cent of children under 2 years are acutely malnourished.45
Projections from the IPC Famine Review Committee indicate that between 16 March and
15 July the Gaza Governorate and North Gaza Governorate will be in famine conditions.46
Malnutrition among children, and pregnant and breastfeeding women is very concerning.
People are turning to severe coping mechanisms to manage the lack of food. A World Food
Programme (WFP) report47 of December 2023, focusing on southern Gaza, shows that 96%of the households in the southern governorates are resorting to such mechanisms, includingtransitioning to unconventional dietary sources, or consistently skipping meals. The criticallyneeded humanitarian aid falls short of the needs and is hindered by the ongoing hostilities anddestruction of infrastructure.

d. Macro-Economic Impact
The shock borne by the Gaza economy as a result of the ongoing conflict is one of thelargest observed in recent economic history. The magnitude of loss of life48 and the rapid
and extensive damage to infrastructure surpass any benchmarks set by historical precedents
both within the region and in recent global conflicts.49 The conflict has caused widespreadand enduring damage, affecting virtually all economic sectors, with severe consequences ontangible assets, incomes, and human capital. The consequences of this shock are expected toexert a prolonged and substantial burden on economic activities for several years ahead.
According to preliminary year-end estimates,50 Gaza’s GDP contracted by 24% in 2023,
year-on-year (y-o-y). The statistics for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 paint a considerably
more distressing picture, indicating an estimated 86% contraction in the Gaza economy forthat quarter alone, compared both to the same period of the previous year and to the previous
quarter.
The adverse repercussions are poised to escalate in 2024, due to lagging effects. The
assessment aims to gauge the growth effects of the conflict on the Gaza economy in 2024, byanalyzing the impacts on the capital stock of sectors contributing to Gaza’s GDP. This approachencompasses social, infrastructure, productive and cross cutting sectors. The cumulative
estimated damages incurred from the conflict as of late January 2024 amount to US$18.5
44

https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/01/over-one-hundred-days-war-israel-destroying-gazas-food-system-and45

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/statement-adele-khodr-unicef-regional-director-middle-east-and-north-africa-0 https://www.unicef.org/pressreleases/statement-adele-khodr-unicef-regional-director-middle-east-and-north-africa-0

46

IPC Global Initiative - Special Brief. 18 March 2024. https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Gaza_Strip_Acute_Food_Insecurity_
Feb_July2024_Special_Brief.pdf

47

https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000155014/download/?_ga=2.267198727.848320036.1706814030-1864791366.1696958122

48

Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5903/Number-of-Gazan-children-killed-in-under-a-month-is-10-times-higherthan-that-of-Ukrainian-children-killed-in-entire-first-year-of-Russia%E2%80%99s-ongoing-war

49

World Bank, Note on the Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on the Palestinian Economy, 2024; available at https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/
db985000fa4b7237616dbca501d674dc-0280012024/original/PalestinianEconomicNote-Feb2024-Final.pdf

50

PCBS, «The Performance of the Palestinian Economy during 2023 and the economic forecasts for 2024», January 2024 https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_
pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_ForecastingPCBSE.pdf.

19

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

billion. The capital stock shock observed in each sector was integrated into a Computable
General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored for Gaza, enabling the estimation of its impact on realGDP. Based on the damage data and if reconstruction starts after 2024, the economic
contraction in Gaza is forecasted to worsen significantly this year, exceeding 50 percent(y-o-y in 2024), as the effects of the capital destruction linger.51
Before the conflict, Gaza was already grappling with severe unemployment andthe situation has deteriorated. The unemployment rate in the Strip was 45%, and youth
unemployment was nearly 60% before hostilities commenced.52 The situation has significantly
deteriorated, with approximately 74% of Gaza’s workforce being unemployed as of endJanuary 2024.53 This unemployment stems from factors such as permanent job loss due to a
combination of the unprecedented destruction of physical assets, personal injuries, internal
displacement, and the halt of economic activity.
The poverty impact is expected to be severe. A vast number of Palestinians in Gaza were
pushed into poverty due to a multi-layered shock affecting productive capacity, on account of
the destruction of agricultural land, fishing ports and local fleets, the destruction or inoperabilityof food shops and markets, the scarcity of water, flour, fuel and electricity, as well as starving
livestock that is unable to provide sustenance or serve as a food source.54 These factors werecompounded by the extensive internal displacement, and the destruction of homes andassets, coupled with a steep recession. These developments altogether have intensified thepoverty levels for those who were already vulnerable. Multidimensional poverty in Gaza has
also skyrocketed due to the hostilities which resulted in the discontinuation of school accessfor children, as well as difficulties related to accessing health and other basic services. The
substantially large majority of Palestinians in Gaza are estimated to be living in poverty atpresent and at least for the short term.
Consumer price inflation (CPI) in Gaza increased by 33% in Q4 2023 compared to theprevious quarter, largely owing to supply disruptions stemming from the conflict. Massive
shortages of basic products have severely limited the capacity of hundreds of thousands ofhouseholds to purchase them, regardless of whether they can afford them. Food prices in
Gaza increased by 39%, quarter-on-quarter (q/q), in Q4 2023, driven by reduced access tofood, heightened transportation costs, and lower volumes of aid. The complete cessation offuel and gas supplies through the crossings resulted in a 143%increase in transportation pricein Gaza in Q4 2023, q/q.

51

Notably, these projections are based on assumptions and may be subject to revisions given the ongoing volatility of the situation.

52

PCBS Labor Force Survey, September 2023.

53

PCBS, «The Performance of the Palestinian Economy during 2023 and the economic forecasts for 2024», January 2024 https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_
pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_ForecastingPCBSE.pdf.

54

United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights; 16 January, 2024 https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/01/over-onehundred-days-war-israel-destroying-gazas-food-system-and.

20

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

Table 1: Gaza Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2023-2024

Real GDP growth rate

Estimate
2023
-24.0

Projections
2024
-51.4

Real GDP demand side, annual percent change
Private Consumption
Government Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Exports, Goods and Services
Imports, Goods and Services

-20.3
-18.1
-28.8
-7.6
-13.5

-37.3
-55.0
-99.5
-50.7
-37.3

Real GDP supply side, annual percent change
Agriculture
Manufacturing, Mining, Electricity and Water
Construction
Services
Public Administration and Defense
Private Households with Employed Persons

-23.6
-25.7
-25.6
-24.2
-19.9
-26.8

-68.3
-40.1
-63.0
-47.3
-54.9
-36.5

CPI %
Fiscal account balance % of GDP
Current account balance % of GDP

9.9
-55.2
-7.5

4.6
-47.6
-20.2

Source: World Bank estimates based on CGE modeling
Note: The fiscal data relates to the Palestinian Authority’s finances in Gaza and not to the de facto
authority.

5. Preliminary Consideration for Early Recovery Interventions
This interim assessment does not identify or take stock of the multi-sectoral needs associatedwith Gaza’s recovery from the conflict. Such a recovery and needs assessment will be
undertaken in due course as part of the upcoming RDNA. However, while the humanitarian
response continues, it is also critical to undertake timely planning, preparation, prioritization,and coordination, through a Conflict Recovery Framework (CRF) so that an integrated recovery
response is ready for implementation as soon as conditions on the ground permit. A minimum
set of conditions for operations will need to be defined in consultation with relevant authorities
and donor partners. Transitioning from humanitarian to recovery interventions will depend on afavorable operating environment in Gaza.
The CRF will be developed to guide the institutional, financing, policy framework, andprioritization to deliver timely, coordinated, harmonized and sustainable recovery andreconstruction. While the CRF will guide the prioritization of medium- and long-term recovery
activities, some key early recovery efforts can begin rapidly after the cessation of hostilities.
Such early recovery activities may include:

21

PERLIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE RECOVERY STRATEGY• Clearing the huge volume of rubble and debris from main streets, intersections,and secondary and tertiary roads for easier access to essential services such as
health facilities, shelters, and schools in accordance with a debris management planthat needs to be urgently developed (including debris disposal locations). This should
include innovative use of rubble as reconstruction material, to mitigate material accessissues, as has been done in the past, with appropriate sensitivity to the presence ofhuman remains.
• Rapidly conducting mine action to identify areas with absence of contamination,
remove UXO, educate the population about ordnance and explosives, and provide
technical advice to organizations and personnel on risks. Debris removal and mine
action will be particularly important as a prerequisite for the establishment of safe
places for shelter.
• The immediate restoration of social services, such as health, education, cash
support. This would entail the repair of relevant facilities, provision of medical supplies
and equipment, as well as provision of essential services, including mental health andpsycho-social support services (MHPSS). Establishing additional medical points in andaround currently designated IDP shelters, as well as in other areas where transitional
decent shelter solutions would be deployed, will be key to improve and expand accessto healthcare. Multi-purpose cash transfers, as well as provision of food and non-fooditems, can also be an integral part of social protection. Restoration of key, in-person
education services would serve to resume a sense of normalcy and provide direly
needed psychosocial support for both students and teachers. Students would receive
education services in temporary learning spaces (for example, school tents), as wellas in less impacted schools that require minor rehabilitation leveraging portableclassrooms, also called school-in-a-box solution.
• In the short-term, the provision of shelter and rapid, cost-effective, and scalable
rehousing solutions for displaced people could be considered. This could becomplemented by subsidies for host family support where feasible. The huge scaleof damages in the housing sector requires the development of unique solutions torebuild or repair the impacted housing units, and overcome the loss of housing forover a million people. To prevent additional social tensions, it is critical that there is
one agreed housing recovery strategy, that all the donors agree to abide by, which
specifies who is eligible and for what amount of support.
• Resumption of basic services in energy, water, and telecom sectors. As withbuilding materials, the ability to restore basic services will be determined by the ability
to import needed parts and equipment, solar panels, and fuel for electricity generation(from Gaza Power Plant and diesel generators). The restoration of services will also
depend on the resumption of electricity and water imports, and the ability to guarantee
secure access of operators’ crews to priority sites for repair to achieve the most basic
level of service. Immediate support to recurrent expenditures of municipalities andJoint Service Councils, especially fuel, other supplies, and labor-intensive operations
and maintenance for sustaining service delivery will also be essential.

22

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

• In addition to humanitarian assistance and food aid, first stage interventions
should focus on improvements in food production and distribution, with a focus
on staple foods complemented with the need to ensure nutritious diets. Priority
actions in the agri-food sector includes targeted rehabilitation of damaged food shops,
bakeries and flour mills and provision of energy sources (e.g., solar panels) for theiroperation, and provision of critical agricultural inputs (e.g., fuel, animal vaccines, plastic
shed materials, animal fodder and irrigation needs) to support agricultural holdings/
producers which could restart production capacity swiftly.
• Regarding the private sector, the following priorities may be considered: (i)setting up temporary structures for enterprises providing essential goods such as
pharmacies, retailers, distributors etc. (ii) in the absence of access to cash in Gaza,
setting up digital payment systems to enable electronic transactions, assuminginternet service and cell phone connectivity would be restored. Such a system could be
set up in cooperation with Palestinian banks and telecommunications companies, (iii)
restoring partially damaged enterprises which still have structurally functional facilitiesin critical sectors such as retail, wholesale, logistics, construction, manufacturing thatcan contribute actively to humanitarian and early reconstruction efforts.
• In addition to the environmental sustainability considerations in early recovery
interventions, as well as the debris removal and broader waste-management
dimensions, specific efforts will be required to address environmental impactof the conflict in Gaza, including contamination of the land and aquifer which have along-lasting and detrimental effect on water supplies, food production and the healthof Palestinians in Gaza. Considerations on environmental sustainability in the context
of urban planning will also need to inform early recovery planning and interventions
focused on transitional shelter solutions, as well as housing rehabilitation andreconstruction.

23

use

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTEANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
For most sectors, the physical impact assessment is based on damage data covering theperiod of October 7 to January 26. But for the housing sector, damage data covers a longer
period up to Feb 2, and for cultural heritage up to February 16. The data sources for damage
analysis include: (i) Sentinel-Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and High-Resolution Opticalimagery, and (ii) social/traditional media which provides daily geo-located damage incident
count. Where possible, data has been triangulated through limited ground information available
from various sources, including through local authorities, partners, publicly available NGO andrelief organization information. Thirty-one SAR images were utilized covering 12 October – 14
February 2024. Baseline data for the areas of interest (AOI – Gaza Strip) was collected andcombined by utilizing different data sources.55
The World Bank, European Union, and United Nations have noted some of the limitations of
the current assessment in the disclaimer. The organizations have learned lessons from theInterim Damage Assessment exercise and will continue to refine and update the methodology
and data sources in the coming weeks, in preparation for a full-fledged RDNA when conditions
permit. We note that in some cases, when IPSOS data on asset baselines and/or damages
were unavailable, UN data sources were used, such as from UNOSAT, FAO, UNESCO, andothers.

Estimating Damage
Overall, the damage value is calculated based on: (i) the pre-conflict replacement cost per
asset; (ii) number of assets damaged in each category assessed within the sector; and (iii)
physical status of the damaged assets. Any asset that has seen damage to around 40% of its
pre-conflict physical size or more is considered destroyed. Facilities that sustain at least 20%
damage and less than 40% are considered partially damaged. The determination of unit pricesof replacement and repair are based on adapting and updating unit rates used in previous
similar assessments conducted by the World Bank and its partners, including through IPSOS
and UNOPS, and any other relevant sources.

55

24

Some of these data sources include – Building footprints: Open Street Map and open sourced Microsoft Global Building Footprint database Municipal
Services – OSM,  PCBS, Hydroplan; WASH – OSM, UNOSAT; Power – OSM, PENRA, World Bank provided feeder lines; ICT – Paltel, Ooredoo; Health – OSM,
WHO, UNRW; Commerce – OSM, PCBS 2019; Education – UNRWA, Ministry of Education, UN Education Cluster; Cultural Heritage – UNESCO; Transport/
Roads – OSM, OCHAANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS

Box 1: Example of Housing damage calculation methodology and limitation
Given housing sector has incurred the highest number of damages, below is asnapshot of the methodology used to calculate the damage.
The baseline housing stock in the Gaza Strip in October 2023 is estimated at472,660, calculated based on the 2017 Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics(PCBS) Establishment, Housing and Population Census and the 2023 population
estimates. The 2017 ratios were calculated to determine persons per buildings,
per housing unit and housing units per building and the 2017 buildings wereextrapolated to 2023 estimates using each area’s 2017 to 2023 population growth
rates. The structural damage to buildings was calculated based on the changes
in the coherence of the SAR signal obtained from the ESA’s sentinel-1 satellite.
The structural changes across Gaza are calculated at a 40x40 meter resolution.
This is combined with building footprint data from OpenStreetMap to estimate
the damage to the housing stock and across housing typologies. The structural
damage to buildings was calculated based on the changes in the coherence of
the SAR signal obtained from the ESA’s sentinel-1 satellite. The structural changes
across Gaza are calculated at a 40x40 meter resolution. This is combined withbuilding footprint data from OpenStreetMap and building height from EU’s Joint
Research Center Global Human Settlement Layer to estimate the damage to the
housing stock and across housing typologies. According to the SAR the 60% ofdamage benchmarked for partly damaged categories is roughly equivalent to 40%
according to the satellite imagery, which is the benchmark used in this assessment.
SAR data is further calibrated with high resolution satellite imagery (30-50cm) andaugmented with geo-referenced traditional/social media analysis that provides
further areas of damage that may not be observable via high resolution satellite
imagery. The actual damage could be higher than these preliminary estimates
because the structural stability and usability of the residential buildings could not
be determined without detailed ground level technical damage assessments. The
damage cost for apartments is estimated based on the weighted average housing
replacement unit cost across high, medium, and low-income apartment typologies
accessed from the UNOPS for the Gaza Strip.
The main limitations of this assessment are the assumptions used to determine
the structure and form of physical damage without conducting field based
technical damage assessments, particularly for determining the structural stabilityof partly damaged units and their livability. Due to the absence of granular housing
profile, the apartment housing typology and replacement costs could not be
detailed out into high, medium, and low-income apartments. Another limitationis the standardized conversion rate used for estimating the number of housing
units per residential building based on SAR based estimates. The method used
to differentiate multistoried residential buildings from other damaged multistoriedbuildings also requires ground level revalidation.

Use of Satellite imagery for damage estimation
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) signals obtained from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1
satellite were utilized to assess structural damage to infrastructure to calculate changes in
the coherence of the SAR signal. Coherence is a measure of the “randomness” of the SAR

25

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

signal, which allows analysts to separate out stable structural features of the landscape. It
is calculated by comparing the similarity of the radar signal from two different pre-conflictsnapshots against the similarity of the radar signal from a post-conflict snapshot to a snapshot
right before the outbreak of conflict. Landscape features that returned a stable signal before,
but not after, the conflict, are classified as either damaged or destroyed depending on how
much the stability of the signal decreased. For example, a building will usually reflect a similarradar signal at different points in time; a body of water or a street with a lot of traffic will not. If
the radar signal suddenly takes a longer time to bounce back from the building, this suggests
probable damage. For in-depth technical explanations, see Boloorani et. al. (2021) and Plank(2014).56
This measure of structural damage was calculated across Gaza strip at a 40x40 meter resolution.
This was then combined with building footprint data from Open Street Map (OSM) and opensourced Microsoft global footprint of buildings database, and sectoral baseline location data toassess asset damages. Buildings’ height was calculated based on Palestinian Central Bureauof Statistics (PCBS) and Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) 2018.
SAR imagery is further cross-validated with high-resolution 30-50cm satellite imagery frommultiple providers. High-resolution imagery analysis involves manual object detection andidentification, delineating individual buildings, and ground features from acquired high-resolution
imagery. To assess building damage, imagery analysts rely on visual interpretation – wheretrained analysts visually inspect imagery to identify structural damage, roof collapse, and othersigns of building degradation. Additionally, analysts use change detection methods, comparing
pre- and post-event imagery to identify changes in building structure and appearance. Damage
assessments entail distinguishing between different categories of damage, such as structural
damage, debris accumulation, and vegetation loss. The categories described are known tochange depending on the type of damage being observed/discerned.
Use of Social/traditional media analytics
Between 30 October 2023 and 16 February 2024, analysts have reviewed more than 2500
open-source social and traditional media reports, including 2084 housing, 97 health, 88
education, 64 agriculture, 50 commerce, 32 transport, ten WASH, nine ICT, and two powerdamage incidents.

56

26

Boloorani, Ali Darvishi, Mehdi Darvishi, Qihao Weng, and Xiangtong Liu. “Post-war urban damage mapping using InSAR: the case of Mosul City in
Iraq.” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 3 (2021): 140. Plank, S. “Rapid damage assessment by means of multi-temporal SAR–A
comprehensive review and outlook to Sentinel-1, Remote Sens., 6, 4870–4906.” (2014).

ANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS

Figure 10: Media Reports by Governorate (Percentage)

Macro-economic assessment
Box 2: Overview of the General Equilibrium Model for Gaza
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models offer nuanced simulations ofcomplex economic interactions. These models, grounded in real economic data
sourced from Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs), provide a multi-dimensionalview of an economy, capturing the intricate interplay among various sectors
and agents.
In the context of Gaza's economy, the CGE model represents a frameworkencompassing a spectrum of economic activities. It spans 17 diverse productive
sectors, ranging from agriculture to advanced services, and integrates the
dynamics of household behavior, government operations, and external traderelations. This approach ensures a holistic understanding of the economic
landscape.
The model also encompasses market conditions and fiscal policies. By
incorporating elements such as indirect taxes and energy subsidies, it reflects
the intricacies of pricing mechanisms and the broader fiscal environment. Thisis crucial in understanding both market behaviors and policy impacts.
Central to the CGE model is its depiction of producer and consumer behavior.
Producers are modelled to adjust their input demands and outputs in response
to various economic stimuli, using cost minimization strategies under constant

27

GAZA STRIP - INTERIM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT | SUMMARY NOTE

returns to scale. On the flip side, the model delves into household economics,
examining income generation, savings, and consumption patterns throughutility maximization principles, thus shedding light on consumer behavior.
Government financial operations are another critical aspect of the model. It
scrutinizes government revenue sources, including taxes and non-tax revenues,
and contrasts them with government expenditures, such as consumption,
investment finance, and transfers. This analysis is pivotal in assessing thegovernment's role in the economy.
The model also pays close attention to investment and capital dynamics,
linking investment levels to savings and economic conditions. This approachallows for a detailed understanding of capital formation and investment trends
across different sectors.
In the realm of international trade, the model employs the Armington assumption
to balance import demands against domestic production capabilities, offering aperspective on Gaza's trade relationships and import dependencies.
Lastly, the CGE model's balance of payments analysis provides insights into
Gaza's financial interactions with the global economy. It examines the impact
of changes in exports, imports, and financial flows on the overall economic
health.
It is important to note that despite the model’s sophistication, the ongoing
volatility of the context requires that projections generated by the model arecontinuously revised to reflect ongoing changes on the ground.

28