航空需要予測について

国土交通省国土技術政策総合研究所

[ 目 次 ]はじめにはじめに ································································································· i（１） 本報告書の構成 ············································································ ii（２） フロー ······················································································· iii
第 I 編 航空需要予測方法改善の方向性
１． 航空需要の動向と航空を取り巻く環境の動向 ··············································I-1
１-１ 航空需要の動向 ·················································································I-1（１） 国内航空旅客需要の動向 ································································I-1（２） 国際航空旅客需要の動向 ································································I-8（３） 国内航空貨物需要の動向 ······························································ I-11（４） 国際航空貨物需要の動向 ······························································ I-12１-２ 航空需要を取り巻く環境の動向 ·························································· I-18（１） 社会経済動向 ············································································· I-18（２） 航空関連の動向 ·········································································· I-21２． 2000 年モデルの再現性検証 ··································································· I-27（１） 国内航空旅客需要予測モデル ························································ I-27（２） 国際航空旅客需要予測モデル ························································ I-29（３） 国内航空貨物需要予測モデル ························································ I-31（４） 国際航空貨物需要予測モデル ························································ I-32
３． 航空需要予測手法改善の方向性 ······························································ I-34（１） 全般にかかる改善の方向性 ··························································· I-34（２） 国内旅客にかかる改善の方向性 ····················································· I-35（３） 国際旅客にかかる改善の方向性 ····················································· I-36（４） 国内貨物にかかる改善の方向性 ····················································· I-36（５） 国際貨物にかかる改善の方向性 ····················································· I-37
第Ⅱ編 航空需要予測モデルの改善
１． 国内航空旅客需要予測手法 ···································································· II-1
１-１ 国内航空旅客需要予測モデル構築の基本的考え方 ·································· II-1
（１） 国内航空旅客需要予測の対象及び基本的前提条件 ····························· II-1（２） ゾーニング ················································································ II-2（３） 国内航空旅客需要予測モデルの全体構造 ········································· II-4（４） 国内航空旅客需要予測モデルの特徴 ··············································· II-7（５） 国内航空旅客需要予測モデルの構築方法 ········································· II-9１-２ 国内航空旅客需要予測モデルの構築 ···················································II-13（１） 全国発生モデル（2000 年モデルにおける生成モデルに相当）············II-13（２） 地域別発生シェアモデル（2000 年モデルにおける発生モデルに相当）II-18（３） 旅行先選択モデル ······································································II-25（４） 交通機関選択モデル ···································································II-31（５） 航空経路選択モデル ···································································II-39（６） 空港アクセス交通機関選択モデル ·················································II-44（７） 便当たり旅客数算定モデル ··························································II-51（８） 離島モデル ···············································································II-56（９） 容量制約に対する処理方法 ··························································II-61２． 国際航空旅客需要予測手法 ···································································II-62２-１ 国際航空旅客需要予測モデル構築の基本的考え方 ·································II-62（１） 国際航空旅客需要予測の対象 ·······················································II-62（２） ゾーニング ···············································································II-63（３） 国際航空旅客需要予測モデルの全体構造 ········································II-68（４） 国際航空旅客需要予測モデルの特徴 ··············································II-72（５） 国際航空旅客需要予測モデルの構築方法 ········································II-74２-２ 国際航空旅客需要予測モデルの構築 ···················································II-78（１） 全国発生モデル（旧生成モデル） ·················································II-78（２） 国内地域別発生シェアモデル（旧発生モデル） ·······························II-86（３） 分布モデル ···············································································II-92（４） 航空経路選択モデル ···································································II-95（５） 空港アクセス交通機関選択モデル ··············································· II-106（６） トランジットモデル ································································· II-113（７） 国際旅客便当たり旅客数算定モデル ············································ II-116（８） 容量制約に対する処理方法 ························································ II-133（９） チャーター便の扱い ································································· II-135
３． 国内航空貨物需要予測手法 ································································· II-136
３-１ 国内航空貨物需要予測モデル構築の基本的考え方 ······························· II-136（１） 国内航空貨物需要予測モデルの特徴 ············································ II-136
３-２ 国内航空貨物需要予測モデルの構築 ················································· II-136（１） モデルの構造 ·········································································· II-136（２） モデル式 ················································································ II-137（３） モデル構築のためのデータ整備 ·················································· II-137（４） モデル構築結果 ······································································· II-137
４． 国際航空貨物需要予測手法 ································································· II-139
４-１ 国際航空貨物需要予測モデル構築の基本的考え方 ······························· II-139（１） 国際航空貨物需要予測の対象 ····················································· II-139（２） ゾーニング ············································································· II-139

（３） 国際航空貨物需要予測モデルの全体構造 ······································ II-140（４） 国際航空貨物需要予測モデルの特徴 ············································ II-144（５） 国際航空貨物需要予測モデルの構築方法 ······································ II-146
４-２ 国際航空貨物需要予測モデルの構築 ················································· II-148（１） 全国モデル ············································································· II-148（２） 金額重量換算係数 ···································································· II-167（３） 国内地域別シェアモデル ··························································· II-170（４） 分布モデル ············································································· II-173（５） 航空経路選択モデル ································································· II-175（６） 継越貨物モデル ······································································· II-180（７） 便数算定 ················································································ II-184（８） 容量制約の反映方法 ································································· II-195
第Ⅲ編 需要試算結果
１． 前提条件 ··························································································· III-1（１） 試算ケースの設定 ······································································ III-1（２） 社会経済フレーム等の設定 ·························································· III-1
２． 試算結果 ··························································································· III-9２-１ 国内旅客 ······················································································· III-9（１） 全国発生量 ··············································································· III-9（２） 交通機関別旅客数及び交通機関分担率 ········································· III-10（３） 国内航空旅客数 ········································································III-11（４） 地域ブロック別国内航空旅客数 ·················································· III-12（５） １便当たり旅客数（羽田国内旅客数上位 10 路線） ························ III-14２-２ 国際旅客 ····················································································· III-15（１） 国際航空旅客数 ······································································· III-15（２） 国際航空旅客数（推計区分別） ·················································· III-16（３） 海外方面別航空旅客数 ······························································ III-18（４） １便当たり旅客数 ···································································· III-20２-３ 国内貨物 ····················································································· III-21（１） 国内航空貨物量 ······································································· III-21２-４ 国際貨物 ····················································································· III-22（１） 国際航空貨物量 ······································································· III-22（２） 海外方面別航空貨物量 ······························································ III-23２-５ 発着回数 ····················································································· III-24（１） 国内線旅客便発着回数 ······························································ III-24（２） 国際線旅客便・貨物便の発着回数 ··············································· III-25（３） 海外方面別発着回数（旅客便＋貨物便） ······································ III-26

（４） 海外方面別発着回数（旅客便） ·················································· III-27（５） 海外方面別発着回数（貨物便） ·················································· III-28２-６ 個別空港 ····················································································· III-29（１） 首都圏空港 ············································································· III-29（２） 関西国際空港 ·········································································· III-30（３） 中部国際空港 ·········································································· III-30３． 感度分析 ························································································· III-31（１） 感度分析の対象指標の条件設定及び計算手法 ································ III-31（２） 各指標の感度分析幅の設定 ························································ III-33（３） 全組合せケース ······································································· III-38（４） 詳細分析結果 ·········································································· III-42
第 IV 編 成果と今後の課題
１． 本モデル体系の特徴と成果 ····································································IV-1（１） 国内旅客需要予測モデル ······························································IV-1（２） 国際旅客需要予測モデル ······························································IV-1（３） 国内貨物需要予測モデル ······························································IV-2（４） 国際貨物需要予測モデル ······························································IV-2
２． 今後の課題 ·························································································IV-4２-１ データ整備に関する課題 ···································································IV-4（１） 各分野共通 ················································································IV-4（２） 旅客関連（国内・国際） ······························································IV-5（３） 貨物関連（国内・国際） ······························································IV-6２-２ モデル構築に関する課題 ···································································IV-7（１） 各分野共通 ················································································IV-7（２） 旅客関連（国内・国際） ······························································IV-7（３） 国内貨物関連 ·············································································IV-8（４） 国際貨物関連 ·············································································IV-8