WORLLD METEOROLOGICA
AL ORGANIZATION

CAS/IICSC-12/DO
OC2.1.3

COMM
MISSION FO
OR ATMOSPHERIC SCCIENCES(6 XI.22014)

INTERNNATIONAL CORE STE
EERING CO
OMMITTEE
FFOR
THORP
PEX

Item: 2.1.3

Tw
welfth Session
W
WMO, Genevva (17-18 NovemberN22014)

Report ofo GIFS-TIG
GGE WG((Submittedby Richard Swinbank and Masayyuki Kyoudaa)
1.

Introductioongroup was established
d in 2005, first to deevelop the TIGGEThe GIIFS-TIGGE working g(THORPEX Intera
active Grannd Global Ensemble)
Eo ensemble predictions, anddata set ofesearch annd developm
ment on ensemble preediction andd the appliccation of
second to foster reble forecassts in orderr to contrib
bute toward
ds a future
e Global In
nteractive ForecastFensembSystemm (GIFS).
Since tthe TIGGE archive wa
as launched
d in October 2006, th
he usage ofo TIGGE datadhas
increased substan
ntially, bothh in terms of the num
mber of us
sers and th
he amount of dataaded – see Figure 1.
downloaFigure 1 – Time seeries of annual usage ofo all TIGGE
E archive poortals from 2007 throug
gh 2014.
Data vvolumes aree annual totaals (10 monnths for 2014), and the number of active userrs is theavera
age per monnth, or total number forr CMA.
2.

Meetings relevantrto TIGGE andd GIFS

ers of the GIFS-TIG
GGE workinng group contributed
d to several meetings andMembe
confereences since the ICSC11 meeting, including:6
2.1 CAS-16
Both coo-chairs atte
ended the CAS-16 me
eeting in No
ovember 20
013 at Antaalya, Turkeyy where
the posst-THORPE
EX plans werew
discusssed, includ
ding the proposalpforr the new WWRPCAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 2working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting (PDEF) and thecontinuation of the TIGGE archive beyond the end of the THORPEX programme. .A side
meeting was held to inform the meeting delegates about TIGGE and its achievements.
2.2 GIFS-TIGGE 12 and joint meeting with PDP
The twelfth working group meeting was held at WMO headquarters in March 2014, plus ajoint meeting with the Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP) working group. The
joint meeting included a detailed discussion of the proposed terms of reference of the PDEF
working group, and the initial scientific challenges that the group should address, with input
from Jean-Noel Thépaut, co-chair of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation(WGNE).
2.3 WWOSC and joint GIFS-TIGGE/PDP meeting
Many working group members attended the World Weather Open Science Conference inMontreal during August 2014. Tom Hamill and Richard Swinbank convened a well-attended
session on “Stochastic Forcing, Ensemble Prediction and TIGGE”. There was a further brief
joint meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE and PDP working groups mainly to discuss the proposed
terms of reference of a future technical liaison group (TIGGE panel).
3.

TIGGE activities

The TIGGE dataset is a rich resource for a range of research studies, with about 120
publications based on TIGGE data, as of early 2014. This illustrates the increasing
acceptance by universities and funding agencies of the value of the TIGGE dataset,
underlining the value of maintaining and adding to the dataset.
3.1 GEOWOW projectThe 3-year EU-funded GEOWOW project was completed at the end of August 2014. The
funding provided by the project has enabled enhancements to the TIGGE archive andsupported further research and development using TIGGE data, including: Establishment of the TIGGE-LAM archive for Europe (see below); Improved ability to get time-series data from TIGGE;
 Application of TIGGE data to prediction of river outflow;
 Development & validation of ensemble calibration methods;
 Use of large-scale flow to enhance prediction of heavy precipitation events;
 Probabilistic forecast products for the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration
Project (SWFDP, see below)
3.2 TIGGE-LAM
The European TIGGE-LAM archive was launched in March 2014, at the GIFS-TIGGE WG
meeting in Geneva. TIGGE-LAM complements the original TIGGE archive and enables
research users to have easy access to a range of European regional EPS data. The
forecasts provided detailed short-range forecast information at high resolution (betweenabout 2 and 12km grid spacing).
Information about TIGGE-LAM is given on the TIGGE website at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/lam,and data are available from the portal at http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge_lam/Figure 2 illustrates the range of ensemble prediction data that are available via the TIGGELAM portal. It is envisaged that TIGGE-LAM will provide valuable data to support future
research activities on high-resolution probabilistic forecasting, including the new WWRP
High-impact Weather (HIWeather) project. Although TIGGE-LAM currently only covers
Europe, there are several other initiatives addressing high-resolution forecasts for severe
weather events, notably the US Hazardous Weather Testbed that has been running for morethan a decade (see Clark et al, 2012). In the future, TIGGE-LAM could be extended tosupport WWRP Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDPs) or Research and Development
Projects (RDPs) for limited periods, provided that resources to allow that are included in therelevant project budgets.

CAS/ ICS
SC-11/Doc.2
2.3.5, p. 3

Figuree 2 Illustratio
on of the daatasets available from tthe TIGGE--LAM archivve (figure addapted
froom the TIGG
GE-LAM pu
ublicity leaflet)

Figurre 3 Exampple of a set ofo plots fromm the real-tiime system to produce
e severe weeatherprodu
ucts for the SWFDP. ThisTexamp
ple, for typho
oon Wipha in October 2013, show
ws theprobaability of win
nd strength exceeding each mode
el’s climatological 99th percentile,
pw awith
ast time of 5 days.
foreca3.3

Product develo
opment & SWFDP suppport

The GE
EOWOW projectp
hass enabled developme
dent of addittional prod
ducts that aare now
availabble for use
e by foreca
asters partticipating in
n the seve
ere weathe
er. The products
includee multi-mo
odel grand ensemble
e forecastts of tropiccal cyclon
nes and reeal-time

CAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 4

version of the severe weather products developed by Matsueda and Nakazawa(2014). In collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Met Officehas set up a system that acquires ensemble prediction data from four of the leading
global NWP centres to generate plots to support warnings of heavy rainfall andstrong winds up to 5 days ahead. An example is shown in Figure 3. Further
development of real-time ensemble tropical cyclone forecast products, including
prediction of cyclone formation, has been discussed by the CBS/DPFS expert teamon operational weather and forecasting process and support,.
3.4 BAMS Paper
Following earlier encouragement from the WWRP JSC and THORPEX ICSC, a paper
describing TIGGE and its achievements has been submitted for publication in the Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). The article confirms that the combination ofdata, from several single-model ensembles to create a multi-model grand ensemble,
produces forecasts that are an improvement over any single-model ensemble. This result
holds for forecast parameters including rainfall and near surface temperatures, and also for
tropical cyclone track predictions. A range of studies of dynamical processes and predictiveskill that have been carried out using TIGGE data are also summarised. The paper also
describes forecast products developed using TIGGE data, including hydrological forecast
applications.
The paper has recently been revised, following the reviewers’ comments, and re-submitted
to the BAMS editors.
4. Future Plans
During the year, we have obtained agreement of most of the TIGGE partners to continue tosupport the TIGGE project beyond the completion of THORPEX, with review after 5 years,
Both the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ChinaMeteorological Administration (CMA) will continue to host TIGGE archive centres. To reflect
the completion of THORPEX, it is planned to change the name of TIGGE to “TheInternational Grand Global Ensemble”. It is planned that the new WWRP PDEF group willtake over the scientific direction of TIGGE from 2015, with technical support from a TIGGE
panel. Further information about the plans for PDEF is given in document 2.3.x.
The continuation of TIGGE will provide support to the THORPEX legacy projects as well as
WWRP FDPs and RDPs. The GIFS-TIGGE working group has agreed, in principle for(small) extensions to the contents of TIGGE, where needed to support the THORPEX legacy
projects, provided that resources can be found.
References
Clark, A. J., and coauthors, 2012: An overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed
experimental forecast program spring experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 55–74.
Matsueda, M. and T. Nakazawa (2014): ‘Early warning products for extreme weather events
derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts’, Meteor. Apps.
doi: 10.1002/met.1444

CAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 5

Annex A: Actions from GIFS-TIGGE WG meetings
Actions from the 12th meeting of GIFS-TIGGE working group (Geneva, 18 March 2014)
Action P.1: All archive centres to update statistics on TIGGE data users on an annual basis(end of each year), using similar statistics for users, actives users, etc. Doug Schuster tocoordinate.
Action P.2: Yuejian Zhu to carry out literature search for papers based on TIGGE data on
an annual basis (end of each year), and summarise results. Archive centres to ask users toinform them when TIGGE papers are written, to enable the list of TIGGE publications to be
kept up to date.
Action P.3: All data providers to provide model descriptions in agreed Excel format and toupdate the files after significant changes and send to ECMWF.
Action P.4: Co-chairs to request reports before each WG meeting on all actions, plus
relevant progress reports.
Action P.5: WG members to consider adding to training material on the TIGGE data portals,
including data access and manipulation examples, to help potential users of the TIGGE
archive.
Action 10.6.3 The WG encourages providing centres to include information on forming
storms in CXML messages (initially using location / time as identification and subsequently
discuss a naming convention).
Action 11.3.4: JMA and CMA are requested to consider extending CXML tropical cyclone
forecast data to all ocean basins.
Action 11.3.5: WMO secretariat to send a formal letter to NCDC to convey appreciation of
their work and to request continuation of the provision of NCEP data to the TIGGE archive.
Action 12.3.1: CMA is requested to confirm whether they will continue to host a TIGGE
archive centre after the conclusion of THORPEX, by the time of the WWOSC.
Action 12.3.2: Co-chairs to check with CAWCR over the version(s) of CXML schema thatshould be used for TC data exchange
Action 12.3.3: NCDC, ECMWF, NCEP and NCAR to make arrangements for processed
NCEP TIGGE data to be sent to ECMWF instead of NCAR, to complete the transition by theend of2014
Action 12.3.4: Data providers to reply to the WMO letter to confirm their future participation
in TIGGE as soon as possible.
Action 12.4.1: Richard Swinbank & Tiziana Paccagnella to liaise with ECMWF about theinclusion of additional information about TIGGE-LAM and the transition of the TIGGE
website to a new web/wiki framework.
Actions and decisions from the joint meeting of the GIFS–TIGGE and PDP WGs(Geneva, 19-20 March 2014)
Action J.3.1: The joint group agreed to review and provide feedback on the YOPP
implementation plan, by end of April.
Action J.3.2: Heini Wernli to liaise with PPP over linkages between polar regions andmidlatitudes.
Decision It was agreed that a few new parameters could be added to the fields archived inthe TIGGE database to support the THORPEX legacy projects and it is not necessary todrop any fields.

CAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 6
Action J.5.1: Co-chairs to approach leaders of legacy projects to consider a limited numberof new fields to be added to the TIGGE database.
Action J.5.2: WMO secretariat and ECMWF to arrange for a press release to publicise thelaunch of TIGGE-LAM.
Action J.5.3: TP, RM, RS & WMO secretariat to prepare a leaflet to publicise TIGGE-LAM intime for distribution at GEO & EGU meetings in April.
Action J.7.1: Taking account of:(a) The strawman list of expertise of members,(b) The list of scientific topics and champions,(c) The CAS-16 guidance,
The current co-chairs and WMO secretariat to propose co-chairs and members for the newPDEF working group, for discussion at the next working group meeting during the WWOSC
and for final approval by WWRP/SSC.
Decision: It was agreed to wrap up the current TIGGE-LAM panel at the end of THORPEX.
Action J.7.2: Tiziana Paccagnella to inform current TIGGE-LAM panel members of thedecision to wrap up TIGGE-LAM panel.
Action J.7.3: ECMWF is invited to form a TIGGE panel comprising all TIGGE partners andregional representatives of TIGGE-LAM. Co-chairs & ECMWF to propose brief ToR for theTIGGE
Actions and decisions from the joint meeting of the GIFS–TIGGE and PDP WGs(Montreal, 18 August 2014)
Action M.2.1: David Richardson to check which regions are going to be included in theCBS precipitation forecast verification work.
Action M.3.1: Comments on the draft TORS for the TIGGE panel to be provided to Richard
Swinbank and David Richardson by the end of September.
Action M.3.2: Gong Jiandong is asked to inform the members of both WGs about whatTIGGE LAM data is currently archived by CMA and especially whether LAM data from othercountries (e.g. Japan, Korea etc.,) is included.
Action M.3.3: David Richardson and Tetsuo Nakazawa to draw up a list of the TIGGE
archive contact points who would become members of the future TIGGE panel.