FICESSA
Food Security Impacts of Industrial
Crop Expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa
Alexandros Gasparatos
Associate Professor, University of TokyoLondon, 28 May 2015

About FICESSA
3-year research project funded by Belmont Forum and FACCE-JPI
under the “Food Security and Land Use Change” call
Academic partners- University of Tokyo (Japan)- Overseas Development Institute (ODI) (UK)
- Royal Botanical Gardens Kew (UK)- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) (SouthAfrica)- United Nations University- UNU-WIDER (Finland)- UNU-IAS (Japan)

About FICESSAAims- provide empirical evidence of how industrial crops compete for land with foodcrops- unravel mechanisms through which this competition can affect food security
in Sub-Sahara Africa
Approach- interdisciplinary- studies at multiple spatial scales using various analytical tools- explore past dynamics and future scenarios- case studies in Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Swaziland.
VisionProduce knowledge that will be directly used by stakeholders to improve the foodsecurity outcomes of industrial crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa

Knowledge gaps
Local level: lack of comparative studies
National level: studies are not always informed byon-the-ground realities
Regional level: underutilisation of existing
biological, environmental and climatic data tostudy crop sensitivity/vulnerability to climatechangeEnd users

WP1Local food security
outcomes of ICexpansion

WP7
Recommendations to endusers and dissemination

WP3
Species Distribution
Modeling

Lead: UNU
UT, ODI, CSIR, RBGK
Lead: UTODI,CSIR, UNU

Lead: RBGK

WP4
Systems-based modeling

WP8
Project management

Lead: UT

Lead: CSIRUT, ODI, UNU, RBGKWP2Institutional landscapefor ICs
WP5
Macroeconomic modelingWP6
Synthesis ofmodeling outputs

Lead: ODI
Lead: UNU

Lead: RBGKCSIR, UNU, UT, ODI

WP1: Local food security• identify the mechanisms through which
industrial crops compete for land with foodcrops– and the food security outcomes of thiscompetition• assess the local food security outcomes ofoperational industrial crop projects

WP1

Addax, Sierra Leone

Wienco, Ghana

Dwangwa-Illovo, Malawi
BERL, Malawi
Niqel, Mozambique

SWADE-RSSC, Swaziland

Small scale
plantations
Original
landscapeMedium density

Developed by: Graham von Maltitz

Large scale
plantations

Low density

High density

WP2: Institutionallandscape• identify key stakeholders, agriculturaldevelopment and food security policies• analyse the evolution of these policies andstrategies

End users

WP1
Local food security
outcomes of IC
expansion

WP7
Recommendations to endusers and dissemination

WP3
Species Distribution
Modeling

Lead: UNU
UT, ODI, CSIR, RBGK
Lead: UTODI,CSIR, UNU

Lead: RBGK

WP4
Systems-based modeling

WP8
Project management

Lead: UT

Lead: CSIRUT, ODI, UNU, RBGKWP2Institutional landscapefor ICsWP5
Macroeconomic modeling

WP6
Synthesis ofmodeling outputs

Lead: ODI
Lead: UNU

Lead: RBGKCSIR, UNU, UT, ODI

WP3: Species
Distribution Modelling• Species Distribution Modelling, with a focus on cropmodelling• identify and project potential regions available fortarget industrial crops• assess areas for present and future expansion
considering current/projected land use and vegetation
sensitivity to climate variability• assess plant functional traits able to maximise
productivity and resilienceWP4: Systems-basedmodelling• identify positive and negative feedbacksbetween industrial crop expansion and foodsecurity.

• validate and apply such model in a case study
countryWP4: Systems-basedmodelling
land for foodproduction

naionalfood
productoin

Industrial cropgrown onsmalholder land+++

increased
fertilizer
use++ food production-cash income++++non-foodpurchses

hh foodsecurity+-foodpurchased+

Other
farmers
grow more
to sellWP5: Macroeconomic
modeling• refine and customize a Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model to capture the foodsecurity outcomes of industrial crop expansion atthe national level• apply CGE model to evaluate the economy-wide
implications of large-scale industrial crop
investments

End users

WP1Local food security
outcomes of IC
expansion

WP7
Recommendations to endusers and dissemination

WP3
Species Distribution
Modeling

Lead: UNU
UT, ODI, CSIR, RBGK
Lead: UTODI,CSIR, UNU

Lead: RBGK

WP4
Systems-based modeling

WP8
Project management

Lead: UT

Lead: CSIRUT, ODI, UNU, RBGKWP2Institutional landscapefor ICs
WP5
Macroeconomic modeling

WP6
Synthesis ofmodeling outputs

Lead: ODILead: UNU

Lead: RBGKCSIR, UNU, UT, ODI

WP6: Modellingsynthesis• ensure all modelling components are properly
informed by field data
• facilitate iterative modelling exercises• develop integrated conclusions from allmodelling components

WP7: Dissemination• develop recommendations to stakeholders• disseminate results in multiple formats• Contribute to science-policy-society interface
and engage with policy-makers

About this meeting• Identify knowledge gaps at the interface ofindustrial crops and food security– and explore how our research can address these;• Test and improve our approach towards
conceptualizing links between industrial crop
expansion and food security• Identify how to make our research outputs
relevant to the processes and initiatives that you
are engaged inThanks