Journal of JSCE, Vol. 5, 113〜122, 2017
Special Topic - Restoration and Recovery from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake（Invited Paper）

ESTIMATION METHOD FOR
PORT CARGO DEMANDS AFTERLARGE-SCALE EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS
Yasuhiro AKAKURA1 and Kenji ONO2
1Member of JSCE, Port and Harbor Dept., National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, MLIT

(3-1-1, Nagase, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 239-0826, Japan)
E-mail: akakura-y83ab@mlit.go.jp
2Member of JSCE, Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, University of Kyoto(Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan)
E-mail: ono.kenji.5z@kyoto-u.ac.jp

Ports are among the most essential infrastructures for international and domestic trades. Since Japan is an
island country, its major ports are requested to prepare business continuity plans (BCPs) to facilitate earlyrecovery of port functions in the context of maintaining the local and national economy. Major objectivesof the BCPs in ports include maintaining sufficient cargo handling capacity to meet the transportation
demands, of which post-disaster forecast is essential to properly secure business continuity in the port.
Based on the above consideration, this study discusses the possible development of demand estimation
methods for port cargo handling volumes in the aftermath of large-scale disasters. The questionnaire/ interview and inventory analysis are suitable for undertaking the estimation in terms of tramper service
cargos such as dry/liquid bulk cargos and complete cars, of which a limited number of cargo owners are
involved. The statistical approaches are effective for the estimation of liner service cargos such as containerand ferry transport, which involve a large and unspecified number of cargo owners. Theoretical concepts,
specific examples and considerations of suggested methods are indicated. The authors deem that these
discussions may pave the way to the introduction of further sophisticated methodologies for port-BCP
preparation.
Key Words : business continuity plan, cargo demand, operating ratio, liner, tramper

1. INTRODUCTION

2. IMPACT OF PORT DAMAGE

Ports are important nodes between water and land
surface transportations and are therefore, among themost essential infrastructures for international anddomestic trades. Since Japan is an island country, itsmajor ports are requested to prepare business continuity plans (BCPs) to facilitate early recovery of portfunctions in the context of properly maintaining the
local and national economy. Major objectives of the
BCPs in ports (port-BCP) include maintaining sufficient cargo handling capacity to meet the transportation demands, of which post-disaster forecast is essential to properly secure business continuity in theport.
Based on the above consideration, this study discusses the possible development of demand estimation methods of port cargos in the aftermath oflarge-scale disasters.

The South Hyogo Prefecture earthquake in 1995
(known as the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake)completely destroyed container terminals in the Kobe
port, rehabilitation works for which took almost two
years. In the meanwhile, however, the neighboring
ports, such as the Osaka port, failed to fully cover for
the Kobe port, resulting in container cargos being
shifted to other Asian container hub-ports including
Busan Port.
Fig.1 demonstrates the transitions of Kobe port
container cargo throughputs, which has shown agreat decrease in Japanese local container throughput
after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. This decrease brought down a shrinkage of container shipping network at Kobe port and, as a result, caused a
reducing trend of international transship container(“T/S” in Fig.1) throughput. The Great East Japan

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Container Throughput ('000TEU)

2,500

None
6%

2,000
1,500
1,000

Very Large
28%

Very Small
21%

Local

N=77

500

Small
13%

T/S
0
1980
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Fig.1 Container throughput and ratio of internationaltransshipment at Kobe port.

Medium
5%

Large
28%

Date: Nov. 24 to Dec. 28, 2011
Target: Port User at Tohoku Pacific Region

Earthquake in 2011 also seriously damaged the
Tohoku Pacific Ocean ports of Japan, such as theports of Sendai-Shiogama, Hachinohe, Onahama,and Kashima. The Takasago container terminal in the
Sendai-Shiogama port took two years to be fully
rehabilitated. In the meantime, the port relied on thealternative port functions of Tokyo and Yokohama inTokyo Bay for handling international container andbulk cargos. The Japan Sea side ports such as theports of Niigata, Sakata, and Akita also assisted thedisaster-stricken port in providing alternative cargohandling services. Nevertheless, these ports could not
fully meet the cargo handling requirements, resulting
in the stagnation of local industrial productions.
Fig.2 shows the negative impact on the production
activities of port user establishments due to the portfunction stagnation after the Great East Japan
Earthquake. The figure was prepared by the authors
based on the questionnaire survey data provided by
the Tohoku Regional Development Bureau of the
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport andTourism (MLIT). Fifty-five percent of establishments responded “very large” or “large,” hence werelikely to be seriously affected by the port function
stagnation. The consequences of this stagnation aredemonstrated in Fig.3, which indicates a considerably large negative impact on the local production
activities, including production cut/shutdown andbusiness opportunity losses.
In the context of the abovementioned negative
impact on the port activities and local economy, theDisaster Management Working Group of the Port
Sub-committee of Transport Policy Council, MLIT,
prepared a policy recommendation to the minister
entitled “Earthquake and tsunami risk management
policy in ports - For securing lifeline of island nation, Japan.” The recommendation put a particularemphasis on the significance of developing
port-BCPs, which were expected to improve the capacity of the ports to respond to disasters. Furthermore, the government enacted the Act for National

Fig.2 Impact of stagnation of port logistic function after Great
East Japan Earthquake.

The Others
25%

Production Cut
26%

N=66
Employment
Adjastment Multiple Answers
5%
Loss of
Loss of
Buisness
Customer
16%
8%
Reform of
Shutdown
Business
13%
8%

Fig.3 Impact categories of stagnation of port logistic function.

Resilience in December 2013 to improve the resiliency of the national territory in coping with possible
occurrence of the Tokyo Inland Earthquake andNankai Trough Great Earthquake. The government
also prepared under the Act, the Improvement Action
Plan to facilitate implementation of sector-wise programs with key performance indicators (KPIs) for
monitoring the implementation progress. In the areaof port sub-sector, the Plan includes a BCP development targeting major Japanese ports to prevent
disruption of national trunk logistics network: i.e.,raising the development ratio of port-BCPs from 3%
in 2012 to 100% in 2016. Fig.4 shows the locationsof major ports and earthquake-stricken areas.

114

ruption, based on which BCP defines the required
resumption timing of the business operation.

International Hub Port 5
Special Major Port
18
Major Port
102
Total

(2) Framework of port-BCP
ISO22301 implicitly assumes that BCP executingorganizations are entities with a single management
system; however, ports may be defined as an aggregate of a number of port-related public offices andport business entities, including stevedoring companies. There may be an institutional question of who
will be the host organization for developing and operating the BCMS at ports.
Main service providers at ports may include port
authority (port managing body), stevedoring companies, maritime pilots and CIQ organizations;
therefore, strong commitment of these parties are
essential to successfully operate the BCMS. Taking
into account this fact, the Port-BCP Guidelines requests that “Port-BCP consultative meeting” be set
up in the respective port to share information in orderto have common business continuity target and risk
awareness. Port authority, the local MLIT office, anddesignated port management companies are expectedto participate in the Port-BCP consultative meetingas core members.

125
Hachionohe

The Great East
Japan Earthquake

Akita
SakataSea of Japan

Sendai-Shiogama
NiigataOnahamaKanazawa
Kobe

Pacific Ocean

Kashima

Tokyo-Bay
Ise-Bay

Kochi Osaka-Bay

Tokyo Inland
Earthquake

Nankai Trough Earthquake

Fig.4 Ports in Japan.

3.

SUPPLY-DEMAND
PORT-BCPRELATION

IN(1) Standards and guidelines of BCP
Based on a lesson learned from the September 11
attack, the American National Standard Instituteinitiated a discussion on the standardization of national security at ISO, which issued “ISO22301:
Social security - Business continuity management
systems - Requirements” in 2012. The new international standard provides a broad-based framework of
the business continuity management system (BCMS)
to cope with a wide range of critical and emergency
situations including large-scale disasters, based on
the experiences of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake
and tsunami and the 2005 Hurricane Catrina storm
surge1).
In Japan, the Cabinet office published a BusinessContinuity Guidelines 1st edition in 2005, which wasamended in 2009 after considering the 2009 flu
pandemic, and again in 2013 based on the occurrenceof the Great East Japan Earthquake. In terms ofbusiness continuity at ports, MLIT issued in 2015
“Guidelines for Preparing Business Continuity Plans
at Ports (Port-BCP Guidelines).”
ISO22301 requests, for the purpose of selecting
and determining the business continuity strategy, thatprioritized timeframes be set for resuming businessactivities at a specified minimum acceptable level,taking into consideration the time within which theimpact of not resuming the provision of products andservices would become unacceptable. This evaluation process is defined as a business impact analysis(BIA). BIA provides information on the maximum
tolerable time period of the clients against the dis-(3) Supply-demand relation
Ports provide cargo owners and shipping companies with logistics services such as cargo loading/unloading, storage, delivery, CIQ inspections,and trade processing. Thus, cargo owners and shipping companies are targeted clients for business
continuity at ports. Fig.5 illustrates a schematic viewof demand-supply relationship of port logistics services in the aftermath of large-scale disasters. Rightafter the outbreak of disaster, port cargo demand,
which means demand for cargo transportation at port,
greatly decreases due to production and supply chain
disruption in the hinterland. The cargo demand generally recovers in association with the resumption of
the hinterland economic activities as shown by theblue line in the figure. On the other hand, cargohandling capacity is also lowered by the damage ofport facilities, which recover in a stepwise fashion byfollowing the progress of clearance works in port
water, emergency rehabilitation of quay structures,and repair of quay cranes as shown by the brown linein the figure.
Port-BCP is a plan for maintaining port clients byproviding sufficient logistics services. More specifically, the risk evaluation of the port-BCP is undertaken by comparing RTO (Recovery Time Objective)
and RLO (Recovery Level Objective) with PRT(Predicted Recovery Time) and PRL (Predicted Recovery Level) as shown in equation (1).

115

logistics service in the aftermath of large-scale
earthquakes. In terms of negative impact of port
shutdown on the national port system in the UnitedStates, a study undertaken by Trepte and Rice7)
should be referred. Novati et al.8) evaluated the influence of natural and human-made disasters on theport network system. Almost all of the abovementioned past studies did not consider in depth thepossible decrease in port traffic demand due to thenatural disaster-caused disruptions of local production and supply chain.
Nakano et al.9) and Abe6) discussed the observed
lower operations of local industries in the disaster
affected area. There are, however, intervention of
inventory and transport lot of goods, and it should be
noted that decrease in the production volume is notalways directly reflected in the port cargo throughput. Based on the above consideration, this study
indicates port cargo demand estimation procedures
for liner and tramper cargos, including that of container cargos previously proposed in ref. 10).

Cargo Demand/Handling Capacity

100%

(i)
Outbreakof Disaster

Cargo Demand

Supply-Demand Gap(iii) Alternative Port
Effect ofPort-BCP
Handling Capacity(ii)

Elapsed Time

Fig.5 Supply-demand relation of port logistic service.

RTO/RLO are presumed based on the port cargodemand in the aftermath of disasters and PRT/PRL
are decided in line with the emergency rehabilitation
program of port facilities and are required to satisfy
the following condition:(1)
 RTO  PRT    RLO  PRL 
In general, some proactive measures and preparatory works are needed to be undertaken to satisfy theequation. The authors consider the following three
categories of risk treatment measures to be discussed
to eliminate the supply-demand gap to properly meetthe port cargo demand.
i) Increasing robustness of port facilities formaintaining cargo handling capacity in the aftermath of large-scale disasters,ii) Arranging and preparing for quick repair andrehabilitation works of the facilities including
acceleration of procurement procedures for
consulting services and civil works, andiii) Organizing a broad-based alternative port alliance for detouring from disaster-stricken ports incase the abovementioned i) and ii) measures are
not enough.
The port-BCP targets to make necessary arrangements and preparation against the expected port
traffic disruption by appropriately predicting thepossible recovery of cargo owner’s demand. In thiscontext, port cargo demand estimation method givenby this study may contribute to developing further
sophisticated BCP preparation methodology.

4. ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY OF
PORT CARGO DEMAND(1) Classification of cargo
The estimation methods of port cargo demand may
be classified into two categories based on the characteristics of cargos as follows:• Tramper service cargos: A limited number of andmostly specified cargo owners are involved in thisvessel transportation category. An example isdry/liquid bulk cargos.
• Liner service cargos: A large number of cargoowners are involved in this vessel transportation
category. The shippers share cargo space in a
vessel. An example is containerized cargos.
For the tramper service cargos, the handling demands at port directly evaluated based on these cargoowners' production recovery and inventory volume
after the disaster. On the other hand, since liner service cargos are aggregations of the demand of manycargo owners, the condition of the respective owners,
such as production recovery fades and estimation of
post-disaster recovery of the hinterland economy on
the average basis is needed. The evaluation method
appropriate for each case is indicated in the following
sections.

(4) Literature review
Among the past researches in terms of disastermanagement at ports, Manosouri et al.2) discussed thedecision-making procedures of risk management at
ports. Miyamoto and Arai3) undertook pilot works for
preparing BCP in the port of Nagoya. Berle et al.4)
explained the failure mode of port logistics functions
with a view to BCP preparation. Omer et al.5) evaluated the resiliency of port logistics by considering
port and shipping network. Abe6) proposed a basic
framework of supply and demand relationship of port

(2) Tramper service cargo
In the case of tramper service cargos, it is necessary to directly identify the respective cargo handlingdemands of the shippers at the port. The reason is thateach establishment has different cargo transportation

116

conditions: inventory volume of products/raw materials, restoration speed of production lines, market
demand of the products in the aftermath of the disasters, and so on.
There are two estimation methods for directly
identifying the demand, and each method has its
merits and demerits.
• Questionnaire and interview survey with establishments: In this method, each establishment is
expected to directly answer the restoration speed ofport cargo handling demand. The information on
possible cargo handling volume to be requested tothe port after the disaster, hopefully based on BCPof the company, could be obtained. However, thereal intention of the company may not be always
revealed. Comments like “the cargo shipment depends on the port function which, therefore, should
be restored as soon as possible” are sometimes
provided.
• Inventory Analysis: If the restoration speed of the
productions and the ordinary inventory volume isidentified, the port cargo demand of each establishment can be estimated by considering how longthe inventory is intended for. For example, therestoration targets, in the aftermath of the disasters,of lifelines such as electricity and gas are normally
publicized by the government, and these data canbe utilized for estimating the port cargo handlingdemand of energy resources.

cargo handling demand. It is possible to determine
the average port cargo demand by quantifying thisrelation on previous disasters.
Although a large number of cargo owners arenormally involved in liner shipping transportation,
when the limited number of cargo owners is prominent, the estimation method stated in section (2) canbe employed.

5. ESTIMATION OF TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR TRAMPER SERVICECARGOS(1) Overview
The tramper service cargo demand estimation involves a variety of conventional approaches based on
indices such as GDP, population, energy consumption, and forecasted volume of production; however,they normally do not need to consider the inventory
volumes and the sudden change in demand caused bydisasters. In addition, experiences of the estimation
for preparing port-BCP in Japan are limited. In thiscontext, this study shows some good practices andcase histories with important view points for properly
undertaking tramper service cargo demand estimation in the aftermath of the disasters. Among the mostcommon techniques, interview and questionnaire
survey examples from the ports of Sakata and Kanazawa are to be referred; as to the inventory analysis,
a case history in terms of the fuel oil demand estimation at Kochi port is shown.
The abovementioned port demand estimation
methods normally involve two or more external
factors, such as the inventory volume and production
recovery speed of shippers and the market demand
for the products in the aftermath of disasters. The
questionnaire and interview survey directly addresses these information at one time, while the inventory analysis requires collecting the respective
information accordingly. As an example of market
demand evaluation in the aftermath of large-scaledisasters, the restoration process of electric power
supply is illustrated in Fig.6. The restoration speedsof lifelines are among the most useful information forevaluating energy resource handling demands at
ports and are usually available in earthquake damage
estimation undertaken by the government and municipalities.

(3) Liner service cargo
In the case of liner service cargos, it is substantially impossible to estimate the port cargo handlingdemand by collecting every shipping volume of theindividual cargo owner. The reasons are as follows:(i) there is a great deal of number of the user establishments that are located geographically widely, (ii)the establishments may not have the proper information on the damage caused by future disaster or
may not reveal their real information in questionnaire
only. From this point of view, the statistical approach, which is based on the data of past disaster,should be employed.
The degree of the disaster damage is generally
proportional to the strength of the hazard to someextent. Previous studies such as Nakano et al.9) estimated the impact of a disaster to the operating ratioof each establishment considering this relationship.
There is, of course, an influence of the cargo owner’s
inventory and transportation lot of goods on the relationship between the business operating ratio andthe port cargo demand, as discussed before. Therefore, the port cargo demand can be estimated basedon the strength of the hazard by quantifying the relationship between the operating ratio and the port

(2) Estimation by questionnaire/interview survey
Questionnaire/interview survey is often suitablefor estimating dry/liquid bulk cargo demand at ports.
In the port-BCP11) prepared in Sakata port, an interview survey with the local establishments was un-

117

Table 2 Ratio of operatable cargo owner by inventory(Kanazawa).
Elapsed Time~ 1 week ~ 2 Week ~ 1 M onth 1 M onth ~after Outbreak
Ratio of
50%
37%
18%
6%
Cargo Owners

Restoration Rate

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0

* Data from ref. 12)

Great Hanshin-Awaji
RecordGreat East Japan
Osaka Inland
Nagoya Inland Estimation
Tokyo Inland

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

other ports, continue their business in other areas, or
suspend their business. Like this Kanazawa port, it isrecommendable to study the detailed situation ofeach company through interview survey as well as
questionnaire survey.

8

Elapsed Days
Fig.6 Restoration of electric power supply.
Table 1 Volume of cargo demand and inventory (Sakata).
Cargo Demand
Volume of Inventory
Cargo
after Outbreak
Thermal 1 month : 50%
40 days (70% Recover)Coal
10 months : 100%
1 month (100% Recover)Fuel
3 days : 50%
2 daysOil
10 months : 100%(3) Estimation by inventory analysis
The result of analysis for the demand estimation of
petrol undertaken by the Kochi prefecture13) is introduced as an example of port cargo handling demand estimation based on an inventory analysis approach.
In ordinary time, almost all petrol supplies to the
Kochi prefecture are undertaken by oil tankers,
which unload the cargos at Tanaska oil station in
Kochi port. When the Kochi port becomes unavailable due to the Nankai Trough Earthquake, the petrol
supply pipeline for Kochi area immediately disappears. In this case, only the storage petrol is available
for distribution to the area. Table 3 shows the volume of daily consumption petrol volume in the area
and available stock-pile estimated by ref. 13). The
timeline is divided into three phases. The Tanaska oil
terminal has not recovered yet, therefore is notavailable for accommodating oil tankers and unloading petrol in all phases. The Kochi city area
stores only the volume equivalent to 0.4 days consumption in phase-1; 5.0 days in phase-2. Thus currently, there exists a lack of petrol stockpile volume
equivalent to 2.6 days consumption in phase-1; 36
days in phase-2. A period in Phase-2 is possibly
shortened by taking various countermeasures such asincreasing of water stopping and drainage capacity;
however, lack in the stock pile cannot be eliminatedin both phases even if the long-term plan is completed in more than ten years. Including phase-3, it is,therefore, necessary to develop some strategies tomake up for this deficit through Kochi port under the
port-BCP. As such, the change in demand in association with various counter measures can be estimatedby the detailed inventory analysis.
In the Kochi port-BCP14) developed in March,
2015, the targeted recovery times of access road andthe emergency clearance works in the port wateraround the Tanaska oil terminal (the Ulado gulf) are
one week after an earthquake. When these targets areaccomplished as scheduled and the handling capacityof the Tanaska oil terminal is also secured, the petrol* Data from ref. 11)

dertaken to identify the coal and oil transportation
volume, which are major bulk cargos of the port. The
survey result is shown in Table 1. When the power
station in Sakata port sustained a minor damage, it
was judged that the cargo handling service for thermal coal in the port had to be resumed one monthafter the outbreak of the disaster, by considering theinventory volume at the power station. On the other
hand, in case the oil terminal operation in Sakata port
could not be continued due to disaster damage, it was
judged that the fuel oil loading at the port be requested to resume within only three days after thedisaster to avoid fuel oil supply shortage in the port
hinterland due to the low inventory level of the port.
In the Sakata port, namely, inventory volume wascalculated to identify the post-disaster transport demand, based on which, the Sakata port-BCP set thetarget time of restarting cargo handling operation at
one month after the outbreak of a disaster for thermal
coal and at three days after for fuel oil.
For the port with relatively limited cargo owners,
questionnaire/interview survey can be applied tounderstand the overview of port traffic demands. An
example is the BCP preparation in Kanazawa port,
where questionnaire/interview survey with twelve
cargo owners was conducted and the allowable
shutdown time of the port operation after a disasterwas decided12). Table 2 shows the result of the survey. A half of the cargo owners answered that theywould be able to continue operation by mobilizing
the inventory one week after the outbreak of a disaster; however, the ratio of operatable cargo owners
would decrease in association with the elapsed time.
These cargo owners answered that they would shift to118

container and the ferry cargo are developed based on
the data of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Among the liner service cargos, container cargo
mainly originates from economic activities; therefore, the transport demand depends upon the recovery pace of the establishments’ activities. Contrastingly, ferry cargo is largely shared by agricultural and living-related cargos whose transport demand does not greatly decrease in the aftermath ofdisasters. Furthermore, transporting of emergency
relief supplies and dispatching of rescue parties suchas the Self-Defense Force cause additional demand
for ferry services. Under the circumstances mentioned above, it is suggested that the recovery speedof ferry cargo demands is faster than that of container
cargo, on the average.

Table 3 Consumption and stock-pile of petrol at Kochi cityarea after a Nankai Trough Earthquake.
Phase-1
Phase-2
Phase-3
Phase
Immediately Water Shielding Full-Fledged
after Tsunami and Drainage Restoration
Daily Demand 52.3 kl/day
184.7 kl/day 237.6 kl/day
Stock-Pile
22.0 kl
925.9 kl
0.0 klCoverable Days
0.4 days
5.0 days
0.0 days
Present State
3 days41 days
Short-Term Plan
3 days23 days
M id-Term Plan
3 days10 daysLong-Term Plan
3 days7 days* Data from ref. 13)
Phase-1: Immediately after an earthquake. The Kochi city area
and the Tanaska oil terminal are flooded All the lifelines stop.
Phase-2: The drainage of Kochi city area start. The Tanaska oil
terminal are still flooded.
Phase-3: The drainage of all area is completed. The Tanaska oil
terminal cannot function by blackout.

(2) Estimation of container cargo demand
The authors had formulated the recovery curves of
the container cargo demand in the aftermath oflarge-scale earthquakes and tsunamis10). These recovery curves were formulated based on the questionnaire survey with disaster-stricken establishments as to the operating ratio and the relation between the operating ratios and the transport demands.
For more details, please see ref. 10). Table 4 shows
the average of the operating ratio of establish ments
in terms of the tsunami inundation depth and the
JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity. It should be noted that the operating ratio contains the influence of indirect factors, such as the
supply chain disruption and damage to lifeline ortransport infrastructures. The operating ratio of establishments at seismic intensities 4 and 5- mostly
depends on these indirect factors. Fig.7 shows therecovery curves of container cargo demands formulated by Table 4 and the relation between the operating ratio and the container cargo demands. These
curves are formulated as follows:(2)f ( x)  a  b exp(  c x )Short/M id/Long-Term Plan: All plans of countermeasuresagainst tsunami were classified in terms of necessary period;
Short: under 5 years, M id: under 10 years, Long: over 10 years.

transportation demand after phase-2 is met. In addition, it is possible to start delivering petrol, even if
the arrival of oil tanker at the terminal is delayed for acouple of days, because the inventory of the Tanaska
oil station can usually accommodate the four days
demand. However, there are risks of taking a longer
time to complete the water clearance works thanthose targeted due to a much larger number of debris
and floating wreckages caused by a tsunami in the
Ulado gulf, where the Tanaska oil terminal is located.
There is also a possibility that the handling facilitiesof the terminal are damaged seriously and the restoration of these facilities take a long time. To copewith these cases, two alternative routes wereplanned : i) to unload petrol at ports in the neighboring prefectures and to transport long distance withtransmountain by road; or ii) to use the general cargoterminal at Kochi new port, which is located out of
the Ulado gulf, and to transport to the Kochi city areaby road13). It needs to be noted that the recovery of
petrol transportation demand may be accelerated if
the phase-3 situation is moved earlier by various
countermeasures, including tsunami damage mitigation measures.

where a, b, and c are the parameters given by Table
5. By using these curves, the container cargo demandin each municipality can be easily estimated, basedon the earthquake and tsunami estimation publishedby the state or a local government. As for the seismic
intensity 7, the curve was formulated by the data ofref. 9) separately, because the authors could not get
the questionnaire data of the establishment that suffered the JMA seismic intensity scale of 7.
In this study, the authors used the JMA seismic
intensity scale, which is the most popular index ofearthquake motion strength in Japan. For reference inthe case of foreign countries, the relationships be
tween the JMA intensity, and PGA (Peak GroundAcceleration), SI (Spectrum Intensity), and MMI

6. ESTIMATION OF TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR LINER SERVICE CARGO(1) Overview
A statistical approach is suitable for the estimationof liner service cargo demands. In this chapter, theestimation methods for the transport demands of the119Table 4 Average operating ratios of establishments after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Elapsed Days
Immediately
1 Week2 Weeks
1 M onth3 M onths
6 M onths
≥ 2m
< 2m
6+
65+
54

TsunamiInundation

Recovery Ratio ofContainer Cargo Demand

JM A
Seismic
Intensity

0%
0%
9%
12%
27%
52%
60%

0%
4%
18%
19%
35%
62%
64%

3%
11%
34%
36%
55%
71%
72%

8%
34%
59%
62%
75%
84%
85%

18%
60%
82%
86%
91%
93%
94%

47%
83%
88%
92%
95%
97%
97%

10 M onths
65%
90%
93%
92%
96%
95%
95%

100%

Table 6 Relation between seismic intensity scale.
IJMA
PGA (cm/s2)
SI (cm/s)
MMI

80%

4
55+
66+
7

60%
40%

6.9
16.9
30.9
56.2
102.4
251.8

5.3
6.8
7.8
8.9
9.9
11.4

* PGA & SI: Calculated by formula in ref. 15)** MMI: Calculated by formula in ref. 15) & 16)

20%
0%
0

73
189
357
674
1,273
3,306

50

Tsunami
> 2m< 2m

100 150 200
Elapsed Days

250

300

Seismic Intensity
7
65+
6+

54

cargo throughputs of each municipality, arranged by
the data of the investigation of the nationwide import/export container cargo flow17). In addition,“Tsunami Inundation/JMA Seismic Intensity” is theratio of the number of establishments in each municipality. Finally, the container cargo demand is
calculated by multiplying “Container Throughput”
by the recovery ratio of container cargo demand ofeach hazard (“Tsunami Inundation/JMA Seismic
Intensity”) in Fig.7.

Fig.7 Recovery carve of container cargo demand.
Table 5 Parameters for recovery curve.
Parameter
Strengthabcof Hazard
Tsunami ≥ 2m
60.6
0.000121
0.0194Inundation < 2m
90.5
0.0652
7
75.0
0.015
6+
88.3
0.112
JM A
691.4
0.125
Seisimic
0.046
5+
100.0
0.247
Intensity
5100.0
0.495
4
100.0
0.539

(3) Estimation of ferry cargo demand
As to the ferry cargo demand, a decrease in demand was hardly seen at the Great East Japan
Earthquake; the first request for deployment of the
Self-Defense Force was made only after six minutes
from the outbreak of the earthquake, and the extra
ferry services for dispatching began on the next day.
The ordinary services also recovered within two
weeks mostly by using alternative ports; this recovery pace is much faster than that of container demandin Fig. 7. The reasons for this are: i) the domestic
ferry cargos normally include commodities that areless affected by disaster; therefore, are considered tomaintain constant transportation demand; ii) somecargo handling demands increased due to emergency
supply demand to the affected area in the aftermath ofthe disaster.
Table 8 shows the ratio of cargo commodities ofthe ferry cargo in comparison with that of the international container cargo. Over half of the cargo of theinternational container cargo is shared by the heavy
industries such as “Metal & Machine Industry” and“Chemical Industry,” while that of ferry cargo islargely shared by the commodity that is not affected(Modified Mercalli Intensity) are shown in Table 6,
which was prepared by Karim and Yamazaki15) and
Worden et al.16). Among these relationships, thosebetween MMI and JMA intensity is relatively weakbecause MMI is converted from JMA intensity
through PGA, not directly.
The estimation procedure using the recovery
curves of Fig.7 is as follows:i) grasping the geographical location of container
cargo owners;ii) assessing the hazard strength (seismic intensity
and tsunami inundation depth) of each municipality.
Table 7 demonstrates a case study of the Sendai-Shiogama port in the aftermath of the Great East
Japan Earthquake. In the table, the column “Container Throughput” includes the ratio of the container

120

Table 7 Procedure for estimating container cargo demand (Sendai-Shiogama port).
Container Throughput
Tsunami Inundation / JM A Seismic Intensity
M unicipality
Ton
Ratio
≥ 2m < 2m
7
6+
65+
5Iwanuma City
55,968
49.0%
29%
29%
43%
M iyagino Ward, Sendai City
23,750
20.8%
33%
19%
40%
7%
Ishinomaki City
11,876
10.4%
88%
8%
4%
Hirosaki City
7,639
6.7%
Wakabayashi Ward, Sendai City
4,829
4.2%
72%
28%
Kitakami City
3,342
2.9%
11%
89%
Tagajo City
2,732
2.4%
50%
50%
Natori City
2,253
2.0%
100%
Shiogama City
1,762
1.5%
31%
46%
23%
Table 8 Commodity of container & ferry cargo.
Commodity of Cargo
Container
Ferry
Agricultural Products
4.8%
12.8%
Forest Products
2.6%
2.9%
M ineral Products
1.5%
0.7%
M etal & M achine Industry
36.0%
21.9%
Chemical Industry
14.1%
9.3%
Light Industry
9.6%
20.0%
M iscellaneous Industry
23.1%
7.7%
Recycle Products, Waste
8.4%
23.6%

4
100%
-

7. CONCLUSION
This study discussed the methodologies for estimating port cargo demands in the aftermath oflarge-scale earthquakes and tsunamis. As a result,practical estimation methods were recommended foreach cargo type, as the authors’ contribution.
At first, the authors noted that demand estimation
was essential for developing and implementing thebusiness continuity plans at ports, for which port user
perspective was of great significance. In this regard,
it was concluded that questionnaire/interview survey
and inventory analysis could provide a practical approach for estimating possible port cargo handlingdemands of tramper service cargos such as dry/liquidbulk cargo and complete cars, which involve a limited number of cargo owners. Specific examples were
given in this regard to demonstrate the suggested
methods.
On the other hand, statistical approaches wereidentified to be effective for the estimation of liner
service cargos such as container and ferry transport in
the disaster-stricken ports. The authors provided,
based on statistical approaches, recovery curves for
estimating container cargo demand at ports. Ferry
cargo demand in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake was also reviewed and discussed.
The authors believe that the above discussions may
pave the way to further sophisticated methodologies
for port-BCP preparation, and will undertake research activities in this area to further contribute toachieving a resilient global maritime transportation
network.

*Container: Data of the international container cargos
from ref. 17). T he contents of the coastal container
cargos are almost the same.
**Ferry: Data from ref. 18)

by the depression in the operating ratio of establishments such as “Agricultural Products,” “Light
Industry,” and “Recycle Products, Waste.” In Japan,
the major part of the coastal container cargo is thefeeder transportation of the international container
cargo.
As to the increase in cargo demand, some bulky
emergency supplies, and dispatched search and rescue parties of the Self-Defense Forces, police department and fire department were transported byferry in the aftermath of the Great East Japan
Earthquake. Approximately 60,000 personnel and
166,000 vehicles were transported by ferries until
four months after the earthquake19). In the aftermathof the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, ferrytransport functioned as a substitute for land transport,
because the railways and roads suffered severe
damage. The ferry services at the earthquake-stricken
Kobe port increased up to 18 and transported approximately 800,000 people, while the number offerry services had been 7 before the earthquake20).
Although these transportation demands do not exist
in ordinary time, the utilization of ferry transport,
which does not need cargo handling facilities at port,
was already assumed at a Nankai Trough Earthquake21) and has been assumed at the other earthquakes. As described above, the ferry transport demand hardly decreases in total in the aftermath ofdisasters.

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