Some Guidelines for a New Sinology

Nicolas MACLEAN〈The International Institute for Strategic Studies, (IISS), London〉

It is a great honour to have been invited to be one of the four overseas panellists in thisopening session of the International Symposium “The World and China at a time of Drastic
Changes—Towards the Construction of a New and Modern Sinology”. The establishment of
this new centre is timely, as China’s 25 year economic miracle continues, and now that
China has at last joined the World Trade Organisation and will in five year’s time host theOlympic Games. China clearly ranks as one of the foremost countries of the world, judged
not only by demographic or economic yardsticks but in a broader sense as well. This month
has also seen the landmark in terms of science and technology of a manned space flight.
The contrast with the China I first visited 31 years ago, when I travelled 3000 miles
around the country during the Cultural Revolution, could not be more marked. Many places
I visited were at low levels of economic development, and diplomatically China had been avirtual outcast, supported in Europe only by Albania and at times Romania. Later I was
lucky enough to visit China several times a year during most years of the 1980s and 90s andto travel widely. With my own eyes I saw the transformation of Shenzhen from a village toa metropolis or Shanghai from a decaying city of colonial concessions, revolution and war,
to a gleaming giant of the 21st century.
I greatly value opportunities to understand China today through the perspective ofhistory, whether it be through reading or listening to personal testimony or, closer to home,thanks to the good fortune to have grown up with a father who was 56 when I was born,(Isoroku?), and who lived 18 years in China starting in 1910. His photograph albums,anecdotes and writings gave me a sense of the old China, which predated the 1949
Revolution, as well as of New China.
Equally, as a student of the Meiji Restoration, I cannot help wondering if there are notimportant analogies for China today, especially in the attempts to combine Eastern values
with Western technology. Nagoya and Shanghai are building a very significant relationship,
and the Aichi Banpaku for which so much infrastructure is being prepared will give a chancefor visitors from all over the world to gain insights not only into Aichi-ken and Japan but
into the East Asian region as a whole, in particular China. I also draw deep satisfaction fromthe fact that Aichi-ken has long been an active host for the JET Programme, which brings
thousands of young people to Japan each year from 40 countries, including both my own
country and China, to promote internationalisation and better mutual understanding.
Yet, having set the scene, I now want to focus, as one of the Overall Session panellists,on eight broad issues in the methodology of the “New Sinology”, which I consider to behighly relevant to each one of the four specialist sessions: on Politics, which I take to include35

方法論分組 Overall Session

military and strategic issues, on Economics, on Culture, and on the Environment. The onlytopic, which I feel would have merited a session of its own, had time allowed, but which may
come up under Economics when WTO-related IPR issues are discussed, is Science andTechnology, for this is one of the most crucial areas of future change in China and one thatshould definitely have high priority in the “New Sinology”.
The first issue is Analytical Refraction. By this I mean the inevitable distortion that
non-Chinese may suffer in their efforts to analyse China from their background as outsiders.
Just as rays of light refract when travelling through different transparent substances, such as
air or water, so our understanding may be less accurate if we confront the “Other” with ourown prejudice or mental baggage. The late Edward Said’s “Orientalism” highlighted one ofmany examples of Analytical Refraction. In analysing China we will look self-critically as
our approach, but as in Heisenberg’s Principle of Uncertainty we can never totally eliminate
some element of Refraction.
The second issue is Humble Access. Already our more self-critical methodology will
guide us in teshise, so that we achieve understanding metaphorically by “standing under”,
rather than by boldly assuming with stiff necks that we have all the answers, no matter how
brilliant we are or how strong the seeming evidence for our conclusions. China is famous for
producing many paradoxes and contradictions.
The third issue is Transparency. China is obviously far more transparent that in the three
decades before the new policies of reform and opening to the outside world, but more
information or opinion is considered confidential than in the liberal democracies. It cansometimes be an offence to pass on data, because of concerns for national security. All
governments have some such concerns, but there is an asymmetry in the degree to which theChinese government currently allows Transparency and at times this may be a constraint on
academic research or debate. On the other hand, a number of liberal democracies haveintroduced or are introducing Data Protection legislation to protect individual privacy, andChina is considering whether to do the same. Such legislation brings benefits, but can reduce
Transparency.
The fourth issue is Disaggregation. There are naturally many times when aggregate dataon China should be used, for instance in some macro-economic analysis. However, in othercases it can be highly misleading to look at an average, since the People’s Republic of China
provides examples of vast regional differences, and while resembling an LDC in some partsof the West of China, is an NIC or NIE along parts of the Eastern and Southern seaboard.
Moreover, there are certain industries, which are of global stature, which has to be taken into
account in the analysis of some international trade questions. As a multi-tier economy, China
is inevitably more complex to define than smaller economies.
The fifth issue is Graduation. This relates to the previous issue, but can affect analysis
both in aggregate and when disaggregated. It again raises the problem of definition and has
important policy significance in terms of China’s eligibility to certain benefits andresponsibilities as an LDC and to others as an NIC or, in due course, an Advanced Industrial
Country and member, say, of the OECD.
The sixth issue is Extrapolation. The rising trend of China’s economic growth and theprogress of reform in the framework of law make it easy to forget that discontinuities havebeen a periodic feature of Chinese history. It is all too tempting to follow a certain fashion

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Some Guidelines for a New Sinology

in analysis of China and merely extrapolate the future with reference to the recent past. The
only sure guide when navigating these deceptive waters is to steer by the compass ofrigorous analysis of causality and to question all assumptions. On the other hand,
Extrapolation can nevertheless sometimes prove a valid technique. For instance, according
to Wolfers Wave Theory it has so far been correct to predict patterns of economic
development in post 1978 China, with the first wave in the SEZs and large coastal cities,
being followed by a second and similar wave up the Changjiang and Pearl Rivers, and a third
wave moving currently to the West and the North East.
China faces many challenges, most of all at a time of drastic change in the world. With
continuing good management and luck, China will surmount new problems, both internaland external, but there will sometimes be trade-offs and difficult compromises to be madeaccording to the economists’ principle of Opportunity Cost. Some of the hardest that lie
ahead will be decisions on the exchange rate of the Renminbi, faced by mounting US
pressure for adjustment, not dissimilar to that faced by Japan in the 1980s.
The seventh issue is Motivation. One of the hardest challenges for the “New Sinology”
will be to judge correctly the motivation of different actors on the Chinese stage, whether
Government leaders at national or local level, or different interest groups and segments ofthe population. How, for instance, will China wield its considerable and growing power on
the world stage?
Since the ending of the Cultural Revolution it has been a factor for world stability, butevery so often doubts about the future are expressed, as when some Chinese spokesmansays, informally, “But China is still a developing country and external expansionism would
be totally illogical”. It is right to look back at long traditions of stability in China withinconsistent borders, but the “is still a developing country” prompts the question, “And when
you can afford to be a major military power?” China’s present armed forces and weaponry
are already significant, and closer international dialogue between military as well as politicalleaders has already proved beneficial. China’s latest role as facilitator of six party talks toresolve the North Korean impasse is a good example of China finding the motivation to playa more forward diplomatic role, though it might be said of Chinese foreign policy, as wassaid of British in the 19^th century, “Britain has no friends, only interests”.
And finally, the eighth issue is Partnership. This should balance my last quotation,
whose context is specifically about trends in long-term diplomacy. The essence of the “NewSinology” should be to build partnerships in academic circles within China and with Chinese
scholars overseas. Through making a conscious effort to realise successful joint researchprojects and exchanges of lecturers, the first issue I raised, that of Analytical Refraction, canbecome less problematical. Aidai’s longstanding links with China and proven excellence inChinese studies, supported at national and local government level and by the respected local
business community, should provide firm foundations for the ICCS. The fact that the firstword in its name is “International” is a sign that its future success will be based in large
measure on Partnership.
In conclusion, I foresee a “New Sinology”, which, to borrow a phrase or two fromrecent Chinese leaders, “unifies theory and practice” and “judges truth from facts”.

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