9 TH TJSD IN TAIPEI

1. Opening Remarks by TSRA and SSRI
2. Program description and general background announce

3. Each teams discuss and drafting its National Strategy base on 2
4. Lunch Break | and moving to group classrooms
5. Unit 1 peacetime interference and harass
6. Tea Break
7. Unit 2 gray zone conflicts

AGENDA

8. End of the 1st day / Traffic to Restaurant

9. Unit 3 Para-conflicts and evacuation
10. Unit 4 General Discussion and AAR
11. Lunch Break

12. Unit 5 Discussion details about the Next Dialogue
13. End of the dialogue
14. Dinner

OPENINGREMARKS

高井晋

翁明賢

President ofSecurity Strategy Research Instituteof Japan

President ofTaiwan Strategy ResearchAssociation

1. This wargame is based on the "tabletop exercise" and does not use
computer arbitration.
2. This wargame is divided into 3 groups: Red Team, Blue Team andGreen Team.
3. Red Team is the arbitration team, acting as the PLA and responsible
for the offense.

PROGRAMMEDESCRIPTION

4. Blue team play Taiwan and Green for Japan.
5. Each Unit follows THREE special situations.
6. Each team should have unified response to every situation, with
“Strategic Framework” and “Specified Approaches”.

7. Communications and cooperations between two teams are
ALLOWED and ENCOURAGED.
8. Any conflicts of understanding and opinions will be judged by theRed Team, unless two teams could reach consensus.

In early 2020, COVID-19 erupted in Wuhan, China, and began to ravage the IndoPacific region and the whole world, triggering a global crisis in industrial supply

chains and leading to nationwide lockdown in various countries. This brought
about a geopolitical and economic shift in the era of deglobalisation. On February
24, 2022, Moscow took special military actions by invading Ukraine, sparkingmilitary conflicts in the European region. The United States, leading NATOcountries, provided tangible and psychological support while imposing economic

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

sanctions on Russia, reigniting a Cold War-like confrontation between the East andthe West.

To curb China's assertive rise in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China
Sea within the First Island Chain, the United States initiated the Indo-Pacific
Economic Framework (IPEF) and formed the AUKUS trilateral military alliancewith Australia and the United Kingdom. Along with Japan's proposal for theQuadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a multilateral strategy of containment
against China has emerged. The South China Sea, which holds the world's mostvital shipping routes and energy transportation lines, has become a focal point anda contested area in military considerations.

Regarding China's developments, in October 2022, the Chinese Communist Party
held its 20th National Party Congress. As expected, Xi Jinping continued his thirdterm, maintaining the positions of General Secretary of the Party and Chairman ofthe Central Military Commission. In March 2023, China held its annual National
People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference,
where Xi Jinping was reappointed as President and appointed his loyalist, Li Qiang,

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

as the Premier of the State Council. Li Shangfu, with a background in technology,
was appointed as the Minister of National Defense responsible for foreign militaryexchanges, showcasing strong autocratic rule. During the closing ceremony of thetwo sessions, Xi Jinping presented his blueprint for the future development ofcross-strait relations, stating, "Achieving complete reunification is the common
aspiration of all Chinese people and the great significance of national rejuvenation.
We must adhere to the One China principle and the '1992 Consensus,' actively
promote peaceful development of cross-strait relations, firmly oppose external
forces' interference and separatist activities for Taiwan independence, andresolutely advance the process of national reunification."Furthermore, Beijing has been engaging in “major powers diplomacy”. On
February 21, 2023, it issued the “Concept Paper on Global Security Initiatives,”

which not only includes training security personnel for developing countries but
also introduces the new term “collective security.” Additionally, Xi Jinping has

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

successively met with German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron, andEuropean Commission President von der Leyen. He also traveled to Moscow tomeet with Russian President Putin, establishing an unrestricted strategic
partnership between the two countries. China successfully mediated the restorationof diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. On March 31, Xi Jinping
met with Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, andSingaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

On the US’ perspective: On April 10, 2023, while the PLA conducted large-scale
military exercises simulating precise strikes on key targets around Taiwan, the U.S.

Seventh Fleet announced the deployment of the guided-missile destroyer USS
Milius to the Spratly Islands to carry out a freedom of navigation operation,
asserting the right to freedom of navigation. In March, there was a dispute between

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

China and the United States over the actions of the USS Milius. Beijing claimed

that the USS Milius had illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Paracel
Islands, and the Southern Theater Command tracked and monitored the ship,
issuing warnings to drive it away. In fact, on July 17, 2022, the U.S. Navy’s
Seventh Fleet guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) conducted a"freedom of navigation operation" near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea,
challenging restrictions imposed by China, Vietnam, and Taiwan on innocent
passage through the Spratly Islands and upholding internationally recognized rights,
freedoms, and lawful uses of the seas under international law.

On April 8, 2023, Chairman Michael McCaul of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs
Committee, along with seven bipartisan members of Congress, visited Taiwan tostrengthen economic and defense cooperation between the United States andTaiwan. On April 19, the U.S. House of Representatives' "Special Committee onU.S.-China Strategic Competition" and the Center for a New American Security

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING(CNAS) held a closed-door policy and military simulation on how the National

Security Council should respond if China were to militarily attack Taiwan by 2027.
The conclusion reached was that there should be a strengthening of Taiwan's
military capabilities. Considering the upcoming presidential election in November
2024, both Democratic and Republican candidates have taken a firm stance against
China, consistently expressing support for Taiwan's democracy and freedom. They
have urged for continued arms sales to Taiwan and the ongoing visits ofcongressional members and think tank representatives to Taiwan.

From April 8th to 10th, 2023, during President Tsai Ing-wen's transit through theUnited States, she met with Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kevin

McCarthy, at the Ronald Reagan Library in California. In response, the Chinese
People's Liberation Army (PLA) organized and carried out military exercises in theTaiwan Strait, northern and southern regions of Taiwan, as well as in the airspaceand waters east of Taiwan. These exercises, known as "Joint Sword" and "Island-BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

wide Defense Patrol," were aimed at countering what the PLA perceives as
Taiwan's reliance on the United States for independence and Taiwan's efforts tobuild its military capabilities.
Meanwhile, former President Ma Ying-jeou embarked on a journey to pay respects
to ancestors and commemorate war sites. During his trip, he advocated for the"1992 Consensus" and the "One China" discourse regarding cross-strait relations.
This sparked strong criticism from Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council of the
Executive Yuan, which urged political figures from across the political spectrum toavoid falling into traps set by China's united front tactics.

On January 19, 2021, Japan lodged an objection with the Commission on theLimits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) regarding China's claims. China asserts

sovereignty over the South China Sea islands, including the Spratly Islands, andattempts to establish baselines that would classify these waters as internal waters, aBACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

privilege granted only to island nations. Japan expressed its inability to accept thisclaim.

In April 2021, the joint statement by U.S. President Biden and then-Japanese Prime
Minister Yoshihide Suga expressed opposition to "China's unlawful maritime
claims" in the South China Sea. A similar statement with the same expression wasmade in May 2022 by President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Indeed, on August 9, 2021, satellite images of the "South China Sea Strategy"
revealed that the Japanese destroyer "Setogiri" was conducting escort and security

missions in the Gulf of Aden. In mid-July, it participated in joint military exerciseswith the UK Navy's aircraft carrier strike group, including the HMS Queen
Elizabeth, in the Gulf of Aden. On August 6, the "Setogiri" had just passed through

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OF THEWARGAMING

the Strait of Malacca. Between 2:05 a.m. and 2:46 a.m., it sailed from north tosouth through the disputed Meiji Reef and Ren'ai Submerged Reef passage.

On September 12, 2022, Japan's NHK conducted further analysis and found thatdata indicated that in late July of the previous year, more than 10 maritime militia
vessels sailed towards the East China Sea, specifically the disputed Senkaku
Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands in China), within a 200-kilometer range inthe East China Sea. They stayed there for a period of time before returning to theSouth China Sea.

In April 2023, Japan released its "Diplomatic Bluebook," based on the National
Security Strategy documents of 2022. It recognized China's expanding diplomaticand military influence as the greatest strategic challenge to the "internationalorder." It emphasized the "serious concerns" of Japan and the international
community regarding the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

Japan also expressed significant concerns about the "military cooperation" between

China and Russia.

On April 18, the annual G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Karuizawa,
Japan. In a joint statement issued by the Japanese Foreign Minister, it reaffirmed
the crucial importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The G7 decided
to directly express their concerns regarding the security issues in the Taiwan Strait
to China.

Philippines: On January 5, 2023, China and the Philippines issued a joint statementin Beijing, emphasizing that the South China Sea dispute does not encompass theentirety of bilateral relations. They agreed to properly manage their differences andpeacefully resolve the disputes based on the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties
in the South China Sea" and the "United Nations Convention on the Law of theBACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

Sea."

On March 4, 2023, Manila authorities reported the presence of 42 vessels,
including a Chinese frigate, a Chinese coast guard ship, and 40 "militia boats," inthe waters surrounding Thitu Island (also known as Pag-asa Island), a disputed
island controlled by the Philippines. The vessels were observed loitering near theisland. The Philippine Coast Guard released a statement asserting that theunauthorized and continued presence of Chinese vessels violated the Philippines'
territorial integrity and the right of innocent passage.

In addition, on March 22, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stated that theEnhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed with the United States

BACKGROUND
OF THEWARGAMING

allows for the establishment of four additional military bases, including one facing
the South China Sea. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang
Wenbin stated on March 22 that defense and security cooperation between
countries should contribute to regional peace and stability and should not target

third parties or harm their interests.

In July 2023, the United States hosted the 2024 Rim of the Pacific Exercise(RIMPAC), which was larger in scale than previous exercises, with increased

participation from countries and naval and aerial vessels. Taiwan was also invited
to participate in maritime search and rescue, medical, and humanitarian assistance

GENERALSITUATION

operations, with active-duty naval and aerial personnel taking part.

During the same period, Taiwan conducted its annual Han Kuang military exercises,
known as Exercise No. 39, which included live-fire drills. The exercises wereexpanded and held at the Hengchun Joint Training Base, and participating units
included the Taiwanese Armed Forces, the Coast Guard Administration, andregional civil defense and rescue teams.

In September 2023, various political parties in Taiwan confirmed their candidates
and began the registration process for the presidential and legislative elections,marking the official start of the election campaign. The People's Liberation Army(PLA) intensified its routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and thesurrounding areas of the First Island Chain, focusing on "long-distance voyages"
and "combat readiness patrols." The primary activity area for these exercises was inGENERALSITUATION

the southeastern part of Taiwan and the Bashi Channel near the Philippines.

Simultaneously, a large number of maritime militia, armed fishing vessels,
harassed Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal, also known as Huangyan
Island, and were accompanied by Philippine Coast Guard vessels in the local
waters. In a show of support for Taiwan, several influential members of the U.S.
Congress visited Taiwan on official aircraft, revealing the presence of additionalU.S. military advisers stationed in Taiwan to assist in the practical training ofactive and reserve Taiwanese military personnel.

On November 31, 2023, the Taiwan presidential election entered a fierce period,
with three sets of presidential candidates engaging in intense attacks and defenses.

The debate primarily revolved around the prioritization of pro-U.S. or pro-Chinastances, while regional legislative candidates competed with a spirit of allowing

GENERALSITUATION

multiple perspectives. Evening political talk shows became platforms for pundits toengage in heated debates, intensifying the discussion on the country's development

path. Various social media platforms and LINE groups strengthened the echochamber effect, amplifying information dissemination within like-minded
communities. Similarly, Taiwanese businesspeople in China formed various
support groups to provide remote support for presidential candidates advocatingthe "1992 Consensus" and "ultimate reunification."On December 31, 2023, in Beijing, on the eve of the new year, the Chinese
President, Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC), and the Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office delivered speeches.
President Xi Jinping reiterated the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" andGENERALSITUATION

specifically emphasized that the cross-strait issue cannot be passed on from one
generation to another. A pro-China candidate echoed Beijing's statement on

Taiwan's reunification efforts, emphasizing the intention to convene a national
conference and expedite the negotiation process for cross-strait reunification. Proindependence groups protested fiercely at the party headquarters of that candidate
and followed the candidate, engaging in spontaneous protests.

In January 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued the annual mobilization orderfor the entire military, signing Central Military Commission's Order No. 1 of 2024,

which directed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to advance comprehensive
military training transformation and upgrade, cultivating highly skilled andGENERALSITUATION

combat-ready troops. The order also emphasized strengthening the training anddefense mobilization work of various theater commands and expanding the annual"Foreign Affairs Work Conference." The year 2024 was identified as a crucial year
for China's reunification process, aiming to achieve peaceful development of crossstrait relations and complete reunification of the motherland's central mission. It
called for expanding exchanges at all levels between the two sides of the TaiwanStrait.

On January 13, 2024, the Taiwan presidential election concluded successfully, andthe president-elect expressed a commitment to internal harmony, stable cross-strait

relations, and deepening Taiwan-U.S. relations. They called upon both the UnitedStates and China to respect and respond to the mainstream public opinion inGENERALSITUATION

Taiwan, and to create peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The American
Institute in Taiwan also announced a congratulatory message from the White Houseand announced the decision to send a presidential envoy to attend the presidential
inauguration on May 20th, highlighting the strong partnership between Taiwan andthe United States. Furthermore, Japan, South Korea, and European Union countries
expressed their support for Taiwan's further deepening of democracy.

Apart from public congratulatory messages, Tokyo and Seoul did not rule out thepossibility of sending representatives to participate in the inauguration ceremony.

The Chinese national security departments, including the Ministry of NationalDefense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National People's Congress Foreign Affairs

GENERALSITUATION

Committee, and Taiwan Affairs Office, issued strong protests, accusing the Taiwan
authorities of persistently relying on the United States and becoming a pawn in

Washington's strategy to contain China, warning that such actions would beconsigned to the ashes of history.

Background description and general situation, provide the player
with a description of the "storyline and background scenario" of thewargaming, so that the player can understand and enter the situationof the game.