2100

2m temperature change
MIROC 5 / RCP8.5

-12℃

- 6℃

0℃

+ 6℃

+12℃

AORI / NIES / JAMSTEC / MEXT

2017

1 Worldwide extreme weather events

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Chapter

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Chapter 1

Worldwide extreme weather events

01

Chapter 2

Global warming--Past and future03

2-1 Climate change
2-2 Food (agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)
2-3 Natural ecosystem
2-4 Natural disaster/coastal area
2-5 Human health
Chapter 3

Factors contributing to global warming/change in emission

19

3-1 Factors contributing to global warming
3-2 Change in GHG emission
Chapter 4

Global warming measures

21

4-1 Addressing global warming around the world
4-2 Addressing global warming in Japan
Chapter 5

01

FAQ
Let’s learn more about global warming

Worldwide extreme weather events

26

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

In recent years, extreme weather events have been observed globally.
Extreme weather events such as intense typhoons, hurricanes, torrential rains,droughts and heat waves have caused disasters in many areas, causing
signiﬁcant loss of life and serious crop damage. Such incidents are reported
almost every year.
In 2015, a heatwave caused a catastrophic damages--in India, at least 2,000
people were reported dead in May and in Pakistan, the reported death toll
was at least 1,200 in June.
In the case of Japan, three typhoons hit Hokkaido in summer 2016, andanother typhoon hit the Paciﬁc coast of the Tohoku region. These eventswere observed for the ﬁrst time since the Meteorological Agency began
keeping statistics in 1951. Because of damage caused by these typhoons,
the eastern and northern part of Japan suffered from downpours and storm.
Particularly in Hokkaido and Iwate prefectures, the extensive damage fromrecord-breaking precipitation is still fresh in people s minds.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) s
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), it is virtually certain that as global mean
temperatures increase, there will be more frequent hot temperature extremes,
and it is very likely that there will be more frequent extreme precipitation in
the tropics and mid-latitude regions.

(From Source 1, 2)

Worldwide extreme weather events02

2 Global warming--Past and future

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Chapter2 -1

Climate change

Climate change of the world in the past (global warming)
Temperature increase is continuing

The gap between areas with heavy and low rainfall is expanding

The global annual mean temperature is continuously increasing The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) indicated 0.85ºC temperature increase in the period of 132 years.
A stagnant condition of global warming (hiatus) (Point (1)) can be seen during the
2000-2012 period. The major factors for this are considered as: heat absorption
by the deep ocean, low solar activities, and volcanic activities. However, the mean
average has continuously increased since 2014, making 2016 as the hottest year
in recorded history (Point (2)).

Looking at the observed changes in annual global precipitation, since 1951, precipitation has increased in the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere(Point (1)). The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased in North
America and Europe. In contrast, precipitation has decreased in West Africa andSoutheastern Australia.
Observed change in annual precipitation over land (1951-2010)

Point

Change in global annual mean temperature compared to the 1981-2010 average

1

Point

Difference from 1981-2010 average (ºC)

2

(mm/10 years)

Point

1

(From Source 4)

Rising sea levels(Created based on Source 3)

Decreasing snow and ice

The mean rate of global average sea level rise was approximately 1.7 mm per
year between 1901 and 2010 (Point (1)). It has risen particularly rapidly between
1993 and 2010, at around 3.2 mm per year (Point (2)). The biggest factor for thisis thermal expansion in the ocean, but a decrease in glaciers and the ice sheets inGreenland and Antarctica are also thought to be factors. All of these are thought tobe caused by global warming.

March-April (spring) average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has been
shrinking(Point (1)). In the Arctic sea, extent of ice has been significantly shrinking
since the second half of the 1970s. The figure indicates the sea ice shrinking trend
in average July-September (summer with minimum sea ice) (Point (2)). The rangeof sea ice decrease in 1979-2012 was 0.73 to 1.07 million km2 (approximately 9 to
13 times as large as Hokkaido) per decade. The area is rapidly shrinking.
Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover

1900-1905
Difference from global mean sea level

Global average sea level change

Point

1993-2010 increase
About 3.2 mm/year

2

Point

1

Risen 19 cm between 1901 and 2010
Increment: about 1.7 mm/year
Lines in the graph are colored by observation.
Colored shading: uncertainty in evaluation resultsYear

Shrinking(From Source 4)

Point

1

Increasing sea surface temperatures*Shade: Uncertainty
Year(From Source 4)

Point
Shrinking2*Shade: Uncertainty
Year

03

Climate change

Long-term variation in global mean sea surface temperatures
Deviation in sea surface temperature (ºC)

Arctic summer sea ice extent

Global mean sea surface temperatures change according to multiple factors
including ocean/atmosphere fluctuation and global warming over time scales
ranging from a few years to several decades. As a long-term trend, the centennial
increase is 0.52ºC (Point (1)).
(From Source 4)

0. 5

Trend: 0.52 (ºC/100 years)
Normal value: 1981-2010 average

0

Point

1

- 0. 50.52ºC increase/100 years

Deviation
Five-year moving average-1

Meteorological Agency

Long-term trend in changes

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year

(From Source 4)(From Source 5)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Climate change of Japan in the past (global warming)
Temperature is increasing in Japan, too

The number of extremely hot days is increasing

As a long-term, annual mean temperature is constantly increasing at a rate ofabout 1.19ºC per centennial in Japan (Point (1)). When compared to observation
results presented in the IPCC AR5, this can be considered a high rate of increase.
The report says that global temperature increased by 0.85ºC over a 132 year pe(From Source 5)
riod.
Difference between Japanese annual mean temperature and normal value

Trends in the number of days with a maximum temperature over 35ºC (extremely
hot days) clearly indicates an increase over the sample period between 1931 and2015 of time (Point (1)) The number of days with a minimum temperature under0ºC (extremely cold days) has decreased, and the number of days with a minimum(From Source 1)
temperature over 25ºC (hot nights) increased in the same period.
Number of days with a maximum temperature over
35ºC (extremely hot days) in a year

Trend: 1.19 (ºC /100 years)

Difference from 1981-2010 average (ºC)

Number of days per year at the observation point

Trend: 0.2 (day/10 years)

Point

1

Year

(From Source 1)

Point

1

The number of days with heavy rain is increasing
Year(From Source 6)

Increasing sea surface temperature near JapanThe sea surface temperature near Japan has been constantly increasing*statistically significant long-term trends can be observed (Point (1)). Annual average sea
surface temperature in the sea near Japan (average) up to 2015 is increasing at+1.07ºC/100 years. The rate is higher than the global mean sea surface temperature (+0.52ºC/100 years), and almost equivalent to Japan’s rate of mean tempera*Excludes the northeastern part of the Sea of Japan and theture increase (+1.19ºC/100 years).

area off the coast of Abashiri, where the rate of increase rate
has not been calculated.
(From Source 7)

Difference between annual mean sea surface temperatureand mean sea surface temperature for the period from 1981 to 2010 (ºC)

Change in sea surface temperature near Japan

No long-term trends have been observed in Japanese annual precipitation. On
the other hand, the number of days in a year with 100 mm precipitation per day
increased in the 115 years between 1901 and 2015 (Point (1)). The same trend isobserved for the number of days in a year with 200 mm or more precipitation perday. The graph also shows that the number of days in a year with 1.0 mm or more
precipitation is decreasing, as the frequency of heavy rain increases. However, thegraph also suggests that the number of days with precipitation (including light rain)
has decreased (Point (2)).
(From Source 1)
The number of days with 100 mm or more precipitation per day in a year
Number of days per year at the observation point

Meteorological Agency

Trend: 0.26 (day/100 years)

Point

1

(From Source 1)

Year

Number of days with 1.0mm or more precipitation per day in a year

Point

1

Off Kushiro

East of Okinawa

Northern part of the East China Sea

Off Sanriku

Northeastern part of the Sea of Japan

Southern part of the East China Sea

East of Kanto region

Central part of the Sea of Japan

Sea around the Sakishima Islands

South of Kanto region

Southwestern part of the Sea of Japan

Off Abashiri

Off Shikoku and Tokai

The Yellow Sea

Number of days per year at the observation point

Trend: 10.0 (day/100 years)

Point

2

Year

(From Source 1)(Created based on Source 8)

Climate change04Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

Climate change of the world in the future (global warming)
Further temperature increases are projected

Increasing gap in precipitation between humid and dry regions is projected

According to the IPCC AR5, the global surface temperature for the period from2081 to 2100 is projected to increase somewhere between 0.3ºC (minimum) and4.8ºC (maximum) compared to the 1986-2005 average. In the RCP8.5 scenario,
which projects the most rapid global warming when emitting GHGs at their current
level (with more than double emissions at the end of the 21st century), projects
2.6-4.8ºC temperature increase (Point (1)). In the RCP2.6 scenario, where most
GHG emissions are almost eliminated at the end of the 21st century (the least severe global warming), the projected temperature range increase is 0.3-1.7ºC (Point(2)).

By the end of 21st century, the gap in precipitation of humid and dry regions will
be expanded. If we continuously emit GHGs at current level, precipitation in humid
parts of high-latitude, equatorial, and mid-latitude regions are highly likely to increase by the end of the 21st century (Point (1)). On the other hand, precipitation is
likely to decrease in many of the dry parts of the mid-latitude and subtropical regions(Point (2)).

Change in global annual mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005

Average percent change in annual mean precipitation when continuously
emitting GHGs at current level (Difference between 1986-2005 average and2081-2100 average)

Point

1

Point

1

RCP8.5 Scenario: Severe temperature increase
as a result of no mitigation on carbon dioxide
emissions（℃） *Shade: Range of uncertainty

6 .0

2081-2100
average

Point

1

4. 0

Point

2

2. 0

0.0

Point

2

1950

20 0 02050

210 0 Year

(From Source 4)

Sea ice reduction is accelerated
According to the IPCC AR5, Arctic sea ice cover is projected to shrink and get thinner during the 21st century. When continuously emitting GHGs at current level, sea
ice in the north polar region is likely to disappear almost completely during Septembers by the middle of the 21st century (Point (1)).

RCP2.6 Scenario: Less severe temperature increase as a result of
mitigated carbon dioxide emissions
Model results for past periods
RCP2.6

RCP8.5(From Source 4)

Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent

Further rise in sea water level is projected
When continuously emitting GHGs at current level, global averaged sea level ishighly likely to increase by 45 - 82cm at the end of 21st century (Point (1)). However,even in a case that the most of the GHG emissions are almost eliminated at the endof the 21st century, projected rise in sea level is 26-55cm (Point (2)).

Model results of past
periods(Unit: million km 2)-2 . 0（％）* Shaded area have smaller variation than internal variations of the earth.
Dotted areas have larger variation than internal variations,thus most of the models demonstrate similar patterns of change.

Showing a state with
virtually no sea ice

Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century

Point

1

（m） *Shade: highly-likely range

1.0

2081-2100 average

Point

1

0. 8

*Shade: Range of uncertainty*Solid line: projection with highrepeatability*Broken line: average of all projection

Year(From Source 4)

Sea surface temperature is constantly increasing
Future global mean sea surface temperature is projected to keep rising. Around
2060, global mean sea surface temperature is projected to increase about 1.4ºC
from current level, if we continue to emit GHGs at current rate. Even if most GHG
emissions are eliminated by the end of the 21st century, increase in the temperature
is projected at about 0.6ºC (Point (1)). Regional variations are projected in the levelof sea surface temperature increase due to the impact of oceanic circulation andheated surface.

0 .6

0 .4

Projected changes in annual averaged, globally averaged, sea surface
temperature
0. 2

0.0
2000

Model results of past periods*Shade: 90% range of projection

Point
2020

2040

2060

2080

2100 Year

2(From Source 4)

Point

1

(From Source 4)

05

Climate change

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Climate change of Japan in the future (global warming)
Japan is projected to be hotter

Sea surface temperature is projected to increase in most sea area

Annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to increase
throughout Japan. At the end of 21st century, mean Japanese temperature is projected to increase by 3.3-4.9℃ from present level, if we continue to emit GHGs as
currently do. Note that high-latitude regions (Point (2)) have severer temperature
increase compared to low-latitude regions (Point (1)).
(From Source 9)

Change in annual mean temperature when continuously emitting GHGs atcurrent level.

The sea surface temperatures near Japan are projected to increase from their present
level in most areas, if we continue to emit GHGs at the current level*in the future (20762095 average). In the Sea of Okhotsk, the temperature is increasing almost uniformly
throughout the region in the summer and autumn (Point (1)). Contrastingly, in spring andwinter, the increase is relatively small, particularly for a coastal area of the Eurasian Continent (Point (2)). The difference in increment by sea area may be caused by the volumeof sea ice covering the Sea of Okhotsk. In other words, the temperature of the Sea of
Okhotsk increases in line with increasing temperatures in summer and autumn , when
there is less sea ice coverage (similar to other sea areas), however, in spring and winter,
the increase in temperature is smaller in areas with a large amount of sea ice.
*Here, the SRES A2 scenario is used instead of RCP8.5.
(From Source 10)

2

Point

65N
60 N

1

Point

2

55N
50 N

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 （℃）(From Source 9)

Spring(March–May)

Amount of change in sea surface temperaturecompared to the mean in the period from1976 to 1995

Point

Future changes in sea surface temperature

45N
40 N
35N

Frequency of heavy precipitation is projected to increase

30 N
25N

Frequency of heavy rain falling in torrents (50 mm or more per hour) at the end of
21st century is projected to increase throughout Japan (Point (1)). It would be morethan doubled for national average , if we continue to emit GHGs as currently do.

（K ）

5
4
3
2
1
0

20 N
15N

110E

120E

130E

140E

150E

160E

170E

140E

150E

160E

170E

140E

150E

160E

170E

140E

150E

160E

170E

65N

(From Source 9)

60 N

Change in frequency of heavy precipitation when continuously emitting
GHGs at current level.

Point

1

55N
50 N

Summer(June–August)

45N
40 N
35N
30 N
25N

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 (Occurrences/year)

20 N

Point

1

15N
(From Source 9)

110E

120E

60 N

Point

1

55N

Number of hot days are projected to increase
Number of days with the temperature above 30ºC at the end of 21st century is
projected to increase throughout Japan (Point (1)). The number of days (national
average) is projected to increase by 49 day or so from present level, if we continue
to emit GHGs as currently do.

130E

65N

50 N

Autumn(September–November)

45N
40 N
35N
30 N

(From Source 9)

25N

Increase of days where the temperature goes above 30ºC
when continuously emitting GHGs at current level.

20 N
15N

110E

120E

130E

65N
60 N

Point

2

55N
50 N

WinterPoint
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 (Day/year)

1(December–February)(From Source 9)

45N
40 N
35N
30 N
25N
20 N
15N

110E

120E

130E

(From Source 10)

Climate change

06

Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

2 -2

Food (agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)
IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the past (Food:agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)
Yield of major grains is declining in the world

Paddy rice and fruit trees demonstrate quality deterioration

Climate change is also closely related to food production. The figure on the lower
provides a summary of the estimated impact of observed climate change on yields
between 1960–2013 for four major crops (wheat, soy, rice, and maize) in temperate
and tropical regions. In both regions, the negative impacts of climate change oncrop yields have been more common than the positive impacts (Point (1)). Looking
at yields of the four major crops, wheat yield is most severely impacted by climatechange, suffering a significant negative impact (Point (2)). Yields of rice and maize
also show negative impact (Point (3)).
However, there are a smaller number of studies showing positive impacts of climate change. They relate mainly to yields in high-latitude regions with lower mean
temperature.

For rice, white immature grains and cracked grains due to high temperature are reported.
For example, rice grains are exposed to high temperature during the period when
the fertilized rice cells are dividing and accumulating starch. The high temperatureterminate development and maturation before the cells fully accumulate starch,causing white immature grains. The negative impacts of the high temperature causes reduce yields and lowers quality.
(From Source 12, 13)

Cross-section of white immature grains(left) and normal grains (right)

Cracked grains

Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields
over 1960–2013 for four major crops in temperate and tropical regions

Point

Point

3

Yield impact (% change per decade)

2

Point

3

Whitish rice grain due to insufficient starch(From Source 12)
accumulation

Point

Temperate

Poor coloration of grapes

Median25th percentile

1

Tropical(From Source 11, 13)75th percentile

Point(From Source 12)

Fruit trees, including grape vines and apple trees, are demonstrating poor or delayed coloration and discoloration from sunlight. The negative impact of thesechanges includes deterioration in quality.

90th percentile

1

Rice grain with cracked endosperm

10th percentile
Wheat

Region

Soy

Rice

Maize

Crop type

Severity of impact of climate change observed between 1960 and 2013 onyields of four major crops in tropical and temperate regions(From Source 11)

Domestic animals are also impacted
The following have been reported in dairy cattle: reduced milk volume and deteriorated milk composition, lower fecundity, and increased deaths due to high temperatures in summer. Weight loss,
deteriorated meat quality, and death are reported for pigs and broiler chickens as well as for cows.
(From Source 12)

Fruit with normal coloration

Fruits with poor coloration

Discoloration from sunlight on a Fuji apple(From Source 12)

07

Food (agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)(From Source 14)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the future (Food :agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)
Reduction in grain yields is projected

Cows are also impacted

Food demand will surge if population growth continues in the future.
However, if the mean temperature of a region increases by 2ºC compared to thelatter part of the 20th century, the yield of crops grown in tropical and temperate regions (wheat, rice, and maize) will be reduced compared to normal figures if no adaptation measures are put in place. If mean temperature increases by 4ºC or more,
the risk to food security will increase dramatically.
Projections summarized in the figure on the lower include cases with and without putting adaptation measures in place based on different emission scenarios for tropicaland temperate regions. The change in yield in compared to those in latter part of the20th century show increasing evidence of diminished yield as time goes by (Point (1)).

The daily weight gain of cows is projected to decrease due to increasing temperatures in summer.
This would cause larger areas to experience deceleration of weight gain in summer
due to global warming (Point (1)).
A similar trend has been observed for fattening hogs and broiler chickens.
(From Source 18)

Projected decrease in daily weight gain of cows in summer
Current climate (August)

2060s (August)
Percent reduction versus weight gainincrements at 20ºC

Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change overthe 21st century

Percentage of yield projections (%)

Point

1

1

Point

Point

1

1

LegendRange of yield change

Point

1

Decreased yield

1

Point

Increased yield

Point(From Source 18)(From Source 11)

The quality of paddy rice would further deteriorate, while areas suitable for growing fruit trees would shift
If we continue to emit GHGs at current levels, projected rice
yield at the end of the 21st century* will stay at the same level
as it is currently or would be increased in most areas of Japan(Point (1)). There is another projection possible increased riskof quality deterioration due to high temperatures (Point (2)).
(From Source 14, 15)

Change in rice yield at the end of the 21st
century versus present levels*

There is a suggested future possibility that the areas not suitable for growing apples will expand to the plain
areas of the central Tohoku region. Areas suitable for growing citrus unshiu are moving north.
In the 2060s, under the scenario where the annual mean temperature increase is set at 3ºC from present levels, the plain areas in the northern Tohoku region (now a major production center of apples) will no longer besuitable for apple cultivation (Point (1)).
Research under a scenario with continued emission of GHGs at current levels projects that areas with higher
temperatures than are suitable for citrus unshiu cultivation would gradually move to the north. This would
halve the area suitable for citrus unshiu cultivation in part of the Kyushu region in the mid 21st century, and at
the end of 21st century, most of the prefectures located in the western part of Japan facing the Pacific Ocean
that produces the fruit at present (Point (2)).
(From Source 16, 17)

Projection of change in areas suitable for growing apples*Projection under a scenario focusing onyields using a climate model (MIROC5)

Current climate

2060s

Area suitable for growing apples
Area with higher temperature
Area with lower temperature

Up to 0.5 times
0.5-1.0 times
1.0-2.0 times
2.0 times and more
No data available

Total production over a 20-year period

Point

1

Point

1

(From Source 17)(From Source 15)

Projection of change in areas suitable to grow citrus unshiu*

Point
Total output (relative value)

2* Projection under a scenario using a climate model(MIROC5)

Current climate
Area suitable for growing citrus unshiu

At the end of the
21st century

Area with lower temperature
Area with higher temperature

Point＜ Risk of quality deterioration ＞ ■ High risk

■ Intermediate risk

■ Low risk

(From Source 16)

2(From Source 16)

Food (agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)

08

Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Adaptation measure (Food : agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)
Introducing recommended paddy rice varieties
resistant to ripening under high temperature

The Nagano prefectural government is testing technology to reduce white immature grains in“Koshihikari” brand rice. The prefecture conducted an examination to clarify the relationshipbetween soil fertilization management and white immature grains and verified the effect of
reducing white immature grains by delaying the timing of topdressing. They also conducted
another examination to establish water management technologies that effectively reduce
white immature grains and verified the effect of reducing white immature grains through constant-flow irrigation (night time) for around 20 days after ear emergence.
Timing to add fertilizers and ratio to have milky-white grains

2012
2013

(From Source 12)

Measures to prevent quality deterioration of fruit trees
Discoloration of fruit from sunlight can be reduced by shielding them from strong sunlight.
Specifically, placing shading nets on apple orchards and covering grapes with paper are considered to be effective.
Measures have taken to prevent poor coloration of grapes, such as promoting girdling skins
for grapes to accelerate coloration and switching to whiter varieties (e.g. Shine Muscat),which are free from coloration concerns.
Meanwhile, people in the islands and coastal areas of Matsuyama City, Ehime Prefecture
who are producing citrus fruits (e.g. citrus unshiu and iyokan orange) have already launched
new efforts to adapt to global warming. Specifically, they started growing avocados in 2008.
(From Source 12)

Introducing Shine
Muscat2014

Standard

Late ripening Very late ripvariety
ening variety
Paddy field in greenhouseStandard

Late ripening Very late ripvariety
ening variety
Outdoor paddy field(From Source 12)

Measures to mitigate excess heat for domestic animals
Mist generators and tunnel ventilation systems are installed in milk cowsheds to mitigate high temperatures. Measures to mitigate heat include: spraying water or limeon the roof using sprinklers or sprayers.

(From Source 12, 19)

Mist fan for cowshed(From Source 12)

Girdling skins for grapes(From Source 14)

Covering grapes with paper(From Source 14)(From Source 12)

Converting citrus fruit cultivation to avocado (Ehime Prefecture)(From Source 12)

09

Food (agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries)(From Source 12)

2011*”Koinoyokan” brand rice: A variety developed by Kinki
Chugoku Shikoku Agricultural Research Center (nowNARO Western Region Agricultural Research Center) in
2014. Compared to “Hinohikari”, it has low plant height andimproved yield.
(From Source 12)

Placing shading nets on apple orchards

Technology to reduce white immature grains

Ratio of milky-white grains (%)

The Hiroshima prefectural government
selected “Koinoyokan” brand rice as arecommended variety for its superiorfeatures, including resistance to ripening
under high temperature. This is a part ofmeasures responding to emerging quality
deterioration in “Hinohikari” brand rice
grown in southern low-altitude areas, due
to recent high temperature in summer. At
this moment, “Hinohikari” is being gradually replaced with “Koinoyokan” rice,
starting with areas suffering from severer
quality deterioration.

Variety resistant to ripening underhigh temperature: “Koinoyokan”
brand rice

Fans installed on the walls of cowsheds

Applying lime on the roof of cowshed(From Source 12)(From Source 12)(From Source 19)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

2 -3

Natural ecosystem
IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the past(Natural ecosystem)
Earlier flowering date for cherry blossoms
Since 1953, the flowering date of cherry blossoms has been accelerated at a rateof 1.0 day per decade (Point (1)). The flowering date of cherry blossoms is thought
to be related to the average temperature before blooming. Therefore, the impact oflong-term temperature increase is considered to be a factor in earlier flowering ofcherry blossoms.
Observation points (58 locations throughout Japan) indicated in the figure on theright include large cities such as Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka.
(From Source 1)

National average: deviation from normal years in flowering dates of cherry blossoms
14
12

Trend=1.0 (day/10 years)

Deviation from normal years (days)

10

Point

8

1

6
4

Coral bleaching
It is reported that one-third of warm-water corals are in danger of extinction. Since
the 1980s, coral bleaching has become more apparent and it is thought that global
warming largely influences this phenomenon.
Coral bleaching occurs when the coral loses algae, called zooxanthella. When thisoccurs, the coral’s white skeleton becomes visible. The reasons for coral bleaching
are water temperature changes, strong sunlight, ultraviolet light and lower salinity.
Water temperature changes significantly affect coral in particular. If the temperature
is 30ºC or higher for a prolonged period, the zooxanthella algae is damaged, causing coral bleaching, and if the high temperature continues for a longer period, thecoral dies.
In 2016, severe coral bleaching was confirmed in Sekisei Lagoon and other locations in Iriomote-Ishigaki National Park, where high temperatures of over 30ºC were
(From Source 22, 23)
maintained in summer.
Coral bleaching

2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

-10

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

(From Source 1)

BeforeAfter
Photo: MOE

Declining beech forests
Beech is a variety of deciduous broadleaf tree, commonly found in cooler temperature zones ranging from Hokkaido to Kagoshima. Many beech forests are preserved
as virgin forests. Therefore, a great variety of animals and plants that are unique tothis kind of forest live there, while people enjoy the benefits of nature, including astable water supply. This means that a decline in beech forests would have a significant impact on not only animals and plants, but also on human lives.
The area around Mt. Hirugatake, located in the Tanzawa Mountains (Kanagawa
Prefecture), was covered in beech trees in the 1970s. However, the place is now
covered with grasses in 2000s (Point (1)).
Another example of declining beech forests can be found at Mt. Tsukuba (Ibaraki
Prefecture). Evergreen broadleaf trees have increased at all altitudes over the three
decades from 1975 to 2005, taking over beech forests.

Concerns over decline of grouse population
The decline of the grouse population has become a concern due to the intrusion ofJapanese deer in alpine zones, increased predators, changes in the status of dwarf
stone pines ,as their nesting place, and alpine plants that they feed on . According
to recent studies, it is shown that the grouse population in the northern part of the
Minami Alps (a mountain range that extends from Mt. Kitadake and Mt. Ainotake
to Mt. Noutoridake) has been shrinking severely. An alpine belt that extends from
Mt. Chausudake to Mt. Izarugadake in the southern part of the Minami Alps is theworld’s southern limit of the grouse habitation range.
(From Source 24)(From Source 20, 21)

Aerial photograph in the vicinity of Mt. Hirugatake(Top: 1970s, bottom: 2000s)

1970s

Point

1

2000s

Point

1

Photo: MOE(From Source 21)

Natural ecosystem

10Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the future (Natural ecosystem)
Change in flowering date of cherry blossoms
The flowering dates of cherry blossoms are projected to change as the temperature increases.
If GHG emissions continue at the current levels*, at the end of the 21st century (2082-2100),
the flowering date would be decelerated in southern areas of Kyushu (Point (1)) and the coastal
areas of the Pacific Ocean, while it would be accelerated in Tohoku (Point (2)), on the Sea ofJapan coast, and high altitude areas.
Cherry trees finish their winter dormancy after being exposed to low temperatures (dormancy
breaking), and bloom their flowers after developing floral buds as temperature increases.
In the area where flowering is delayed, the trees cannot be exposed to low temperature in winter due to global warming, flowering is decelerated because time to break dormancy would be
prolonged. There is a possibility that the cherry blossoms may not even bloom some years. On
the other hand, in areas with early flowering, cherry trees can be exposed to low temperature in
winter even in winters affected by global warming, and thanks to global warming, the tree canalso be exposed to sufficiently high temperatures earlier for developing floral buds after breaking dormancy. As a result, flowering is accelerated.

Beech trees
In the Shirakami Mountains (a World Heritage site) that extend over Aomori and Akita Prefectures, 95% of the area designated as a World Heritage site is suitable forbeech trees under present* climate conditions (Point (1)).
However, if GHG emissions continue at the current levels* , the area will shrink
during the end of 21st century (2081-2100) due to temperature increase (Point (2)).
Some research suggests that the area suitable for beech trees will completely disappear.
1

2

1982
*1 average values between 1953ofand
RCP8.5.
*2 SRES A2 scenario is used instead(From Source 26)

Change in the areas suitable for beech forests around the Shirakami Mountains*Here, SRES A2 scenario is used instead of RCP8.5.
(From Source 25)

Change in flowering dates of cherry blossoms at the end of 21st century
Photo: MOE

Point

2

Present climate

2081-2100 climate(MIROC)

Point

Point

1

2

Mt. Iwaki(1,625m)

Mt. Shirakamitake(1,232m)

Point

1

Accelerated ←Difference in average flowering date (day)→ Decelerated(From Source 25)

Distribution probability＜ 0.001

Area designated as a World Heritage site0.001 - 0.01
0.01 - 0.1

Coral

N

0.1 - 0.5

If the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere increases, more carbon dioxide
will be absorbed by seawater, leading to ocean acidification. This is projected to interrupt
the skeleton formation process of coral.
If GHG emissions continue at the current levels*, the possible coral distribution range
will move north due to temperature increase. This means that the habitat range of coralwith optimal water temperature and ocean acidity will be caught between the northern
sea areas not suitable for coral skeleton formation (Point (1)) due to ocean acidificationand the southern sea areas where coral bleaching is taking place due to increased seawater temperature (Point (2)). Accordingly, 90% of the total areas suitable for the corals
distributed in temperate area in the 2000s will disappear in the 2050s, and bleaching will
occur in about half of the total areas where tropical-subtropical and temperate coals can*SRES A2 scenario is used instead of RCP8.5.
be distributed.

(From Source 27)0>= 0.5

5 10

20 km

(From Source 26)

GrouseThe habitat range of the grouse is considered to be shrinking with the decreases in
the alpine plants to feed on due to global warming.
When the annual mean temperature increases by 1ºC, the projected population
number is reduced by about 10% (Point (1)). A 2ºC increase reduces the number by
about half (Point (2)), and a 3ºC increase by about 80% (Point (3)).
If the temperature increases by 3ºC, grouse nesting in Mt. Ontake and Mt. Norikura
are projected to become extinct, and the population nesting in Minami Alps is also
projected to decrease down to 35 becoming almost extinct.

Shift in the areas suitable for coral in the future(From Source 28)

Change in grouse habitat range due to global warming

Distributionof temperatecorals Northern
limit(10℃)

Point

Point

1

Distribution of tropical-subtropical corals
Northern limit(18℃)

Increased by 1°C!
(1°C from the standard)
Northern limit ofcoral bleaching(30℃)

Habitat(present)

Point
Aragonite saturation state

2(From Source 27)

Point

1

Point

2

Increased by 1°C!
(2°C from the standard)3

Increased by 1°C!
(3°C from the standard)

Population
down by
about10%

Population
down by
about 50%

Increased byabout 154 m

Increased byabout 308 m

Population
down by
about 80%

Increased byabout 462 m

Grouses in Mt. Ontake and Norikura go extinct.
Population in the Minami Alps community drastically reduces to 35!
(From Source 28)

11

Natural ecosystem

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Adaptation measure (Natural ecosystem)
Beech trees: Study and research through monitoring
The Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage Conservation Center is carrying out ongoing monitoring studies every year to understand the long-term changes in the natural environment in
the area designated as a World Heritage site. The monitoring study aims to understand thenatural ecosystem with a focus on beech forests in the Shirakami Mountains and the changes. Through this, the basic data will be accumulated, which can be used for finding out thecauses and taking appropriate measures to address any changes that may occur. The centerhas recently conducted research and studies to define the forest structure and dynamics froma broader perspective applying laser measurement technology and the satellite images. The
center also has carried out a phenology study using fixed-point cameras.
(From Source 29)

Phenology study using fixed-point cameras

Grouse: Monitoring the habitat status
In March 2009, the Nagano prefectural government formulated a project plan forprotecting and restoring grouses.
As a part of the project, monitoring grouse habitat status is prioritized as an urgent
issue. The Nagano Prefecture Environment Conservation Research Center conducts monitoring studies on grouse habitat status at two sites in the Prefecture.
One takes place in the alpine belt that includes the area around Mt. Izarugadake extending to Mt. Chausudake and Mt. Kamikouchitake. At this point, nearly a decadeof ongoing research has taken place, led by the Shizuoka Grouse Study Group. The
Center conducts joint research with this group. The other monitoring point is around
Mt. Jiigatake, where the eight grouse habitat status researches have taken place.
The Center is conducting a joint study with the Omachi Alpine Museum, owned by
the town of Omachi.

(From Source 33)>>>>> Column
Response to changes in cherry blossom flowering dates

Photo: MOE

Coral: Transplant and increase at artificial reefs
MOE carries out coral reef investigations known as Monitoring Site 1000. The purpose of this study is to understand the current condition of Japan’s coral reef ecosystem and collect information that helps to conserve the nation’s natural resources.
In addition, the adaptation measure may include coral transplant and increase at
artificial reefs, aiming to restore degraded corals. There are some ways to nurse
plants for transplant. For example, MOE transplants coral by helping their nidation
through installing nidation tools using immature corals.
(From Source 30, 31, 32)

Settlement Device

Hirosaki Park in Hirosaki City, Aomori Prefecture is one of themost popular places for cherry blossoms. Every year, a Cherry
Blossom Festival takes place approximately from April 23 to
May 5. A unique characteristics of the Hirosaki Cherry Blossom
Festival is its schedule. Because the festival week overlaps withJapan’s holiday season, called Golden Week (April 29 throughMay 5), this festival is ranked high in the number of visitors every
year, among other tourist sites in this period.
According to a paper published by Sakurai and Kobori (2012),
global warming correlates to the flowering dates for cherry blossoms, suggesting that the number of visitors would be severely
affected by this phenomenon. As a part of their study, the two
researchers conducted interviews with the organizers of cherry
blossom festivals on how they view the correlation and how they
are responding. It was revealed that many festival organizers
recognize global warming, and are aware that the phenomenon
affects the timing of the flowering. The advantage of the Hirosaki
Festival is that it overlaps with Golden Week, something that no
similar festival can offer. Therefore, if the flowering date of thecherry blossoms is accelerated due to global warming, the festival
will no longer be held during Golden Week, resulting in falling visitors and profits. Despite these concern, the Hirosaki people may
overcome the challenge by focusing on new tourist attractions in
the city. For example, they have an idea to offer visitors a chance
to look at apple flowers regardless of the blooming of cherry blossoms, since the area is the best in Japan for its apple flowers.
Hirosaki City is also trying to become a major tourist destination
throughout the year by holding Aomori’s famous Neputa Festival
in summer, an autumn festival for viewing the changing leaves,and a lantern festival in winter. If the flowering date of the cherry
blossoms is accelerated, they can still use other local resources,
holding another festival using the apple flowers that bloom after
the cherry blossoms.
(From Source 34)(From Source 32)

Corals grew while attached to the settlement device(From Source 32)

Natural ecosystem

12

Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

2-4

Natural disaster/coastal area
IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Damage in the past (Natural disaster/coastal area)
Flood damage in the world
Floods are one of the most common types of disasters, accounting for 47% of all disasters between 2006 and 2015, increasing from 40% in the 1996-2005 period. The figureon the lower left shows the number of floods occurring in the world between 1980 and 2016. It shows the number of floods is likely to increase as the annual average number offloods is increasing from 52 in the 1980s , 87 in the 1990s to 162 after 2000.
Floods typically occur throughout Asia, particularly southern China and northeastern India (see the figure on the lower right).

(From Source 35, 36)

The number of floods in Asia by province between 2000 and 2015.

Number of floods

The *Number of floods in the world(1980-2016)(Year)*Floods involving either 10 or more deaths, 100 or more victims,
a state of emergency, or calls for international aid(Created based on Source 37)(From Source 36)

Flood and landslide disasters in Japan
More frequent and severer inundations (flood, inland water, and high tide), landslide disasters, and droughts due to climate change triggered by global warming are major concerns. Every year, enormous flood damage and landslide disasters occur across the country.
Among Japan’s 1,742 municipalities (as of the end of 2013), only 55 (3.2%) escaped inundation events, such as flooded rivers, in the decade between 2004 and 2013. The restof the 1,687 municipalities (96.8%) experienced at least one inundation event that decade. Among them, 925 municipalities (53.1%) experienced at least 10 inundation events
that decade (see the figure on the lower left). The data show that inundations are a common disaster in Japan.
Also, landslide disasters (including landslip and debris flows) are dreadful calamities that can ruin numerous lives and property in a second through the tremendous destructive
power of soil and earth. Since Japan has many steep mountains and frequent natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rains, and earthquakes, it is likely to experience manylandslide disasters with its topographic and meteorological features. Looking at the landslide disasters in the previous decade (2006-2015), around 1,000 occurred per year on
average. The figure on the lower right shows the number of landslide disasters in the last decade by prefecture. The data show that no Japanese prefecture escaped landslidedisasters in Japan. In Japan, there are about 530,000 spots that are vulnerable to landslides.
Number of floods (river) in 2004-2013

Number of landslide disasters in 2006-2015 by prefecture(From Source 38, 39)

Municipalities
sufferingfrom damage by flooded
rivers at
水害
（河川）
が 水害
（河川）
が 10 回以上の市町村：925
市区町村：925市区町村
53.1％
least
10 times: 925 (53.1%)
10回以上の市町村
53.1％（河川）がfrom
5〜9 回の市町村：425
市区町村
Municipalities
sufferingdamage byfloodedrivers
水害
（河川）
が 水害
24.4％
：425市区町村 24.4％
5-9 times:
425 (24.4%)
5〜9
回の市町村
水害
（河川）が 1〜4 回の市町村：337 市区町村

Municipalities
rivers
19.3％
水害
（河川）
が suffering from damage by flooded：337市区町村 19.3％
1-4 times:
337水害(19.3%)
1〜4
回の市町村（河川）が 0 回の市町村：55 市区町村
3.2％

水害
（河川）
が that did not suffer from damage by flooded
Municipalities
市区町村（平成25 ：55市区町村
年末 全市区町村数） ：1742
3.2％
0rivers:
回の市町村
55 (3.2%)
100％

Number of landslides(Number of municipalities（出典as of：水害統計）
the end of 2013: 1742 (100%))（平成25 年末 全市区町村数）：1742市区町村 100％
Source: Statistics on flood damage(Source: created by MLITT)(From Source 38)

13

Natural disaster/coastal area

(Created based on Source 40)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the future (Natural disaster/coastal area)
About 100 million people are suffering fromflood damage in the world
The figure shows the projected number of people exposed to large-scale floods(occurring once every 100 years during the 20th century) up to 2100. If GHG emissions continue at current levels, where global warming continues to advance rapidly,
about 100 million people (about five times larger than the current number) per annum are projected to suffer from such large-scale floods around 2100 (Point (1)).
World population exposed to flooding–Projection

Increasing damage caused by floods
At the end of 21st century (2081-2100), the damage caused by flood would increaseby 240-480 billion yen per year than now in Japan, if GHG emissions continue at thecurrent level (Point (1)). Annual mean damage caused by floods is about 200 billion
yen at present. In the worst-case scenario, the flood damage would jump up to thelevel that is three times higher than the current level.
If there are any applicable adaptation measures in place, the damage could be
mitigated compared to the current level (Point (2)). However, improving flood risk
management across the country would require a long time and enormous amount ofinvestment.
(From Source 16)

Projected

MeanStandard deviation

Number of people exposed to flood (millions of people)

Historical

Amount of flood damage by nation, period, and scenario(100 million yen)

Historical

Point

1

Point

1

Shades:±1 from standard deviation

Point

2

Year
(From Source 11)

Projected increase in the number of areas
which needs higher flood protection
The rise in sea level caused by global warning poses an enormous threat to the livesof people living in coastal areas, low and/or flat lands, and small islands. These areas will be affected more severely by high tides and inundation caused by typhoons,floods in coastal areas, and damage of coastal erosion. The figure below shows the
projected required increase in height (m) for flood protection structures in the 2081–
2100 period to keep the same frequency of flooding as the one for the 1986–2005
period, based on sea level rise projections under a Representative Concentration
Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. This means that in some East Coast areas of theUSA, flood protection structures must be raised more than 70 cm. In Japan, somecoastal areas need to raise flood protection structures 50–70 cm (Point (2)).
The estimated increase in height that flood protection structures would
need to be raised in the future (allowance height)

Point

2

R2.6: RCP2.6 (blue), R4.5: RCP4.5 (green), R8.5: RCP8.5 (red)MIROC5: ◆ , MRI-CGCM3.0: ■GFDL CM3: ▲ , HadGEM2-ES: ●Adaptation measures formulated (grey)(From Source 16)

Increasing slope failures
The probability of slope failures is projected to increase in Japan at the end of 21st
century (2081-2100), if GHG emission continues at the current level. This is because
the frequency of heavy rains would increase due to global warming. The frequency
is likely to increase across the country except the Kanto region.
(From Source 16)

Change in the probability of slope failure(MIROC) across the country in the period
from 2081 to 2100 (when GHG emissions
continue at the current level).

Point

1

(Unit: m)(From Source 11)(Partially revised Source 41)

Natural disaster/coastal area

14

Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Adaptation measure(Natural disaster/coastal area)
Tide embankment in UK

Sand Motor installed in coastal areas of the Netherlands

The UK launched an adaptation programs in 2012, and has been taking adaptation
measures with a focus on flood risk management, water resources and freshwater
ecosystem. In the project for the facilities improvement at the River Thames Estuary,
the tide embankment, with the length of 18 km, was built for protecting the land under the sea level from flooding. The flood damages caused by storm surges, whichtake place 10 times per year, are prevented by closing the gates ‘Themes Barriers’.

On the river mouth, the Thames Barrier is designed
to protect inland areas from storm surges until
2030, even if sea level rises 8 mm per year.

The sand beaches along the coasts of the Netherlands are losing sand due to ocean
currents. The loss of sand beaches may lead to sea-water intrusion into urban areas
located at sea level. The Sand Motor, artificial island, is designed to prevent suchdamages due to sea level rise.
(From Source 42)

Constructing an artificial island(Sand Motor) one kilometerfrom the coast

Pump up initial sand

The island changes coastal current
The sand is accumulated in area
between the island and coast
due to modified sea current

Sands carried by wind
accumulate

Photo: Koichiro Aitani

Designing facilities that can endure thechange in future sea level
For example, designing tide embankments to prevent damage from high tide requires
a plan for which sea level should be considered. However, the level of these mitigation
measures may change the degree of climate change, such as temperature and sea level increases. Therefore, MLIT decided to design tide embankments that allow for extensions to cope with the increased sea levels projected in the future with the most simple
modifications possible. For gateposts and foundations that are less flexible for modification, measures will be taken at the design stage to ensure that the embankments will
have replaceable gates and machines when they are updated.
(From Source 43)

Prevents sea-water intrusion into
urban areas with maintained
sand beaches(prepared based on Source 42)

Sand Motor

Future measures
Modifying traction machines due
to changed gate size

Taking measures beforehand
Height of gateposts considering
future gate size

Sea side
Rising sea level

Planned hightide level

Future measures
Modifying gates due tochange in gate size

River side

Source: ©https://beeldbank.rws.nl, Rijkswaterstaat

Estimated high water level

Taking measures beforehandFoundation considering
future gate size
(From Source 43)

Raising public awareness and anti-disaster education
From the perspective of policies to promote collaborative efforts between local
governments, business operators, and residents, multiple scenarios are being formulated beforehand for how and when to take measures according to the severity of
impact of climate change.
The central government also provide assistance, including announcements of the
impact of climate change and effective measure to residents, showing practical examples of anti-disaster measures and environment-related issues.

Promoting land use and residential areas inconsideration of disaster risks
In Japan, relocating to areas with lower disaster risks and introducing urban functions have been promoted by informing the areas highly vulnerable to disasters suchas the areas frequently damaged by landslides or inundation above floor level).
In the vulnerable areas especially with high risks involving human lives due to thedepth of inundation, such possible risks are informed to promote safer use of land.
Practical measures include: “defining zones where migration is encouraged (Point(1))”, “Improving facilities (Point (2)), and “use of lands considering disaster risks(Point (3))”.
(From Source 43)

Zones where migrationis encouraged

Point

1

※Exclude areas with higher disaster risks from zones where migration is encouraged

Point

Improving facilities(From Source 43)

Anti-disaster education

Defining zones where migration is encouraged
Encourage people to live in areas with lower disasterrisk while introducing urban functions

Intensive promotion of improvement in rivers, sewage
systems, rainwater reservation facilities, and rainwater permeation facilities in the zones where migration is encouraged

Having residents
associations create hazard maps

Use of lands in consideration of disaster risks

Severity of disaster risk
Low
High
Moderate

2

Point

Encouraging safer use of land by designating special hazard
areas at high risk for landslide disasters in zones withparticularly high disaster risks

3(From Source 43)(From Source 43)

15

Natural disaster/coastal area

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

2 -5

Human health
IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the past (Human health)Growing habitat range of mosquitoes transmitting
infectious diseases

Number of heat waves in the world
Heat wave is defined as a phenomenon causing excessively hot weather for a prolonged period (four to five consecutive days, or even more) over an extended area,
and typically occurs in summer in areas with anticyclone.
Major damage caused by heat waves in recent years include a 2003 event in Europe. The reported deaths for the disaster were at least 22,000. Another heatwave
occurred over an extended area in India in 2015 with temperatures as high as 42ºC,
causing at least 2,000 deaths.
(From Source 44, 45, 46, 47)(From Source 16)

The number of heat waves* in the world* (1980-2016)*Heat waves involved either one of 10 or more deaths, 100 or more victims, state of emergency,
and call for international aids

Expanding Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) distribution range

20
18
Number of heat waves

Asian tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) are considered a critical transmitter ofmosquito‐borne viral infectious diseases. They carry both dengue fever and chikungunya fever. They typically inhabit areas where the annual mean temperature is
11ºC or higher. The research on the correlation between the distribution range of
the Asian tiger mosquito and temperature has revealed that the northern limit of thiskind of mosquito habitat is currently the northern part of the Tohoku region, and has
been gradually moving further north since 1950 (Point (1)). This suggests that oncethe dengue fever virus is brought from overseas, the possibility to spread dengue
fever may be increased.

16
14
12
10
8
6

(From Source 52)

4
2
2016

2012

2014

2010

2007

2005

2001

2003

1997

1999

1993

1995

1987

1990

1985

1980

0

Aomori(Created based on Source 37)

Hachinohe (2009)

Happo
Morioka (2009-)

NoshiroDeaths caused by heatstroke in Japan

Hanamaki (2007-)

Akita
Honjo

In environments with high temperature, high humidity, stagnant air, and strong source of radiation (objects generating heat), the risk of heatstroke is increased due to poor heat dissipationand sweating functions of the human body. In recent years, there have been an increasing
number of deaths caused by heatstroke, which is a direct result of excessive heat.
(From Source 48)

2010

YokoteMiyako (2007)

SakataOotsuchi (2011-)

Sinjo

Kesennuma

Yamagata

2000

Conditions required to trigger heatstroke< Environment >High temperature
High humidity
Weak wind
Strong sunlight
Tightly closed
indoor space
No air-conditioning
Days withtemperature surges
Coming ofheatwave< Body condition >Elderly, infants, obese
Chronic diseases(e.g. diabetes, cardiac disease,and psychiatric disorders)

Undernutrition
Dehydration(e.g. diarrhea or flu)

Ishinomaki< Action >SendaiAizuwakamatsu

Vigorous exercise
Unfamiliar exercise
Prolonged outdoor
activities
Difficult to get enoughwater

Shirakawa

Point
Karuizawa

Physical deconditioning

Nikko

-1950

1

(e.g. hangover, insufficient sleep)

100 kmPossibility of heatstroke(Partially revised source 48)

Change in deaths caused by heatstroke and temperature deviation fromnormal years

Tokyo

Spots with confirmed presence of
Asian tiger mosquitos
Presence not confirmed

Asian tiger mosquitoes constantly inhabit areas where the annual
mean temperature is 11ºC or higher, and its distribution range is moving north due to global warming.
(From Source 16)

FemaleTemperature deviation (°C)

Number of deaths

Male(Created based on Source 49, 50)

Human health16

Chapter 2

Global warming --Past and future

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Impact of global warming in the future (Human health)
Increasing risk of various infectious
diseases due to global warming

More heat waves causing more deaths due to excessive heat
According to the IPCC AR5, the number of heat waves is very likely to increase by theend of 21st century (90% or higher). This suggests that the impact on health due to heatwaves is likely to increase.
According to the estimates on the number of excess deaths* due to heat stress for people aged 65 or older around the world (2050), South Asian, East Asian, and Southeast
Asian countries will have more deaths than other countries.
*Note: Deaths due to excessive heat (e.g. heatstroke) are called “deaths due to heatstress”. The number of deaths due to excessive heat increases when the temperature
increase higher than standard temperatures, where the number of deaths is minimal.
(From Source 51)

Projecting the number of excess deaths due to heat stress in the world・Dengue fever and chikungunya fever (Asian tiger mosquito)
If GHG emissions continue at the current levels, the Asian tiger mosquito may survive in most of Japan except eastern Hokkaido and high latitudes by the end of the
21st century (Point (1)). This is because the temperature in the areas where annual
mean temperature is currently less than 11ºC will increase, meaning that the mosquito can survive in these areas. Therefore, the infectious risk of mosquito-transmitted diseases is likely to become higher. In addition to the Asian tiger mosquito, there
are other kinds of mosquitoes that transmit diseases (e.g. Culex tritaeniorhynchustransmits the Japanese encephalitis virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits dengue
fever). These species also are experiencing an expanding distribution range andincreasing habitat density.
(From Source 16)
Projected※ distribution area of the Asian tiger mosquito at the end of the
21st century*Using a climate model (MIROC5)

Number of excess
deaths/year

Point

1

0-3
3-5
5-9
9-15
15-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
＞75

0

2,500

5,000

10,000(From Source 52)

15,000(From Source 51)

Increasing number of deaths due to heat stress
If GHG emissions continue at the current levels, at the end of 21st century, the number of deaths due to heat stress across the country may jump to the level that is fourto thirteen times greater than at present (Point (1)).
If people can acclimate to the increasing temperatures (physiological adaptation),
the increase in the number of deaths may be less than double (Point (2)). However,physiological adaptation takes time, so projections give an idea of the lower limit of
the impact.

0

50 0

10 0 0 km(From Source 53)(From Source 16)

Projecting the number of excess deaths due to heat stress in Japan
15

10

Point

(times)15Non-habitat area
Habitat area

Projected impact of infectious diseases

Waterborne diseases

Vibrio vulnificus infection spreads to Hokkaido region

Mosquito-borne viral
infectious diseases

Distribution area of Asian tiger mosquitoes is moving
north, beginning intrusion and constant habitation in the
Hokkaido region
Japanese encephalitis infection spreads to Hokkaido
regionIncreasing habitat density of Culex tritaeniorhynchus in
the Tohoku region
Intrusion of Aedes aegypti (Shikoku and southern
regions) and constant habitation (Kyushu and Okinawa
regions)
Increasing density of mosquitos in urban areas (Kanto
and Chubu regions)
Epidemic of dengue fever in areas extending from the
Tohoku and Chugoku regions, pandemic in Shikoku andsouthern regions(From Source 54)

Point
0

R2.6

R4.5
R8.5
2031 - 2050

R2.6: RCP2.6 (blue)
R4.5: RCP4.5 (green)
R8.5: RCP8.5 (red)Adaptation measuresformulated (grey)

R2.6

R4.5
R8.5
2081 - 2100

2◆：MIROC5■：MRI-CGCM3.0▲：GFDL CM3●：HadGEM2-ES(From Source 16)17

Human healthS T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

IMPACT

PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

Adaptation measure (Human health)Online heatwave forecast

Adaptation measure for heatstroke

The EuroHEAT project aims to improve public health services related to extreme
weather, particularly heatwaves. The project was coordinated by the European armof WHO between 2005 and 2007, with co-investment from DG SANCO, European
Commission (EC). Online heatwave forecasts are one of the achievements of thisproject. The EuroHEAT project indicates daily forecasts of the probability of heatwaves (0-100%) for the next ten days, with map colored according to each European region. The maps can be accessed online (figure on the lower). The probabilityof heatwaves is calculated based on projections from fifty different sites (ensemble
forecast).
(From Source 55)
EuroHEAT screen

Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MOE) released a website posting information to prevent
heatstroke. The Yokohama municipal government promotes measures focusing on “humanware” (human movements) as an adaptation measure to cope with the increasing frequency ofheatstroke.
The MOE is also taking measures to mitigate damages from heatstroke by providing information related to heatstroke severity level on a special website, as well as publishing a Heatstroke
Environmental Health Manual, and Guidelines for Preventing Heatstroke at Summer Events.
(From Source 48, 57, 58, 59)

Yokohama City’s adaptation measure to prevent heatstroke

Classification
Increasingheatstroke
frequency

Adaptation measure (draft)
Establishing a system of early detection in communities
Informing people on days with a minimum temperature higher than
25℃ (hot nights) and extremely hot days
Providing basic knowledge on heatstroke, measures to be taken, andpreventative measures
Promoting introduction/installation of green curtains at home
Promoting rooftop/wall greening and providing information(From Source 58)(From Source 56)

Adaptation measure to prevent infectious diseases
Adaptation measures for infectious diseases can be classified into those promoted by thegovernment and those promoted by individuals. The former includes infectious disease surveillance (investigation and monitoring), improving drinking water and sewage process systems, vaccination programs, educational activities, measures against mosquitoes transmitting
infectious diseases, infestation investigations of mosquitoes transmitting infectious diseases
in various regions, cultivation of human resources who can formulate preventative measures
for mosquitoes transmitting infectious diseases, and continuous investigation of animals transmitting infectious diseases and the number of bacteria in the sea in various areas. The latterincludes measures to prevent contact with mosquitoes transmitting infectious diseases, eliminating infestation of mosquitoes
transmitting infectious diseases, preventing mosquito larva, andpaying attention to sanitary conditions when eating raw seafood.
To prevent infectious diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, surveillance is being carried out throughout Japan on these insects.
For example, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has been carrying out “region-wide surveillance” activities since 2004. In 2015,
the government launched “priority surveillance” activities at ninefacilities that have a large number of visitors and where many
events take place.

(From Source 48)(From Source 57)

Mosquito trap

(From Source 60)(From Source 60)

Region-wide surveillance and priority surveillance
LocationsPathogens
to be examined

Region-wide surveillance

Priority surveillance

16 facilities (16 locations)9 facilities (50 locations)West Nile virus
Dengue fever virus
Chikungunya virus
Zika virus
Malarial parasites

Dengue fever virus
Chikungunya virus
Zika virus

Investigation
periodJune-October

April-November

Number ofinvestigations
per year

Ten times total

Fourteen times total(Created based on Source 60)(From Source 59)

Human health18

3

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Chapter
3 -1

Factors contributing to global warming/change in emission

Factors contributing to global warming

GHG Emission pathways
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions as a major cause of global warming to zero (net base)
Human activities have been deeply related to changes in the climate system since the pre-industrial era, and it is known that the largest contribution to global warming is causedby the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2). The IPCC AR5 reviews multiple scenarios for changes in Greenhouse Gases(GHG) emissions andprojects atmospheric concentrations and temperature increases in 2100. There are two types of scenarios: “Baseline Scenarios”, which assume no additional efforts (mitigation
measures) to constrain emissions of anthropogenic GHGs, and the “Mitigation Scenarios”, which involve additional efforts. Also, some mitigation scenarios involve “overshoot”
in which the concentration temporarily exceeds a certain threshold before 2100. RCP2.6 leading GHG concentrations in 2100 in range for the 430 ppm to 480 ppm carbon dioxide-eq is the only scenario that is likely to stay below 2ºC over the course of the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels within four RCPs. Other RCPs (RCP4.5, 6.0, 8.5) inwhich concentration in 2100 ranges from 580 ppm to more than 1000 ppm are “more unlikely than likely or unlikely” or “unlikely” to stay below 2ºC over the 21st century relative
to pre-industrial levels. RCP2.6 is characterized by 40% to 70% global anthropogenic GHG emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2010 (Point (1)), and emissions levels
near zero or below in 2100 (Point (2)). And it is also characterized by changing land use (such as afforestation and deforestation control), plus more rapid improvements in energy efficiency. Compared to 2010, it will be triple to nearly a quadruple the share of zero- and low-carbon energy supply, such as renewable energy (e.g. PV solar power andwind energy), fossil fuel energy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) by 2050. If introduction of such key technologies is delayed,
mitigation costs can increase substantially, while the achievement of RCP2.6 will become harder.
GHG emission pathways 2000-2100: All AR5 and RCP scenarios
90th Percentile
MedianAnnual GHG Emissions [GtCO2eq/yr]

Full AR5
Database Range

10th Percentile

2100 GHG concentration: unit is ppm(CO2eq)Baseline
Scenario range

RCP8.5: high reference scenario
RCP6.0: high stabilization scenario
RCP4.5: middle stabilization scenario
RCP2.6: low stabilization scenarioYear

Key characteristics of the scenarios collected andassessed for WGIII AR5.

Point

1

Point

(From Source 61)

2(From Source 62)

19

Factors contributing to global warming

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

3 -2

Change in GHG emissions

Change in global GHG emissions
GHG emissions had continued to increase
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase during 1970–2010. In particular, annual GHG emissions have grown on average by 2.2% per year from 2000
to 2010 (Point (2)) compared to 1.3% per year from 1970 to 2000 (Point (1)). The anthropogenic GHG for which emissions have increased significantly is been the carbon dioxide emitted by fuel combustions and industrial processes. Among anthropogenic GHG emissions, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes
contributed about 76% of the total GHG emissions increase during 1970-2010. It is thought that the half of cumulative anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions during 17502010 (after the Industrial Revolution) have been emitted in the past 40 years. Furthermore, if we look at the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion,
cement production and flaring during 1750-2010, the amount has tripled over the past 40 years. In contrast, world carbon dioxide emissions have stayed almost flat since 2013
despite the global economy, which had been a driver of carbon dioxide emissions, has been grown in this period. This may be possibly caused by increase of renewable energythat does not emit carbon dioxide. Besides, changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration can be observed by a satellite called Ibuki, which monitors GHGs in the total
atmosphere* (Point (3)).
*Greenhouse gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

Changes in whole-atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observed by
GOSAT

Anthropogenic GHG emissions

Point

1

2

+2.2% yr
2000-2010

Mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the total atmosphere by month
Estimated mean concentration over the years*GT= 1 billion yen

F-Gases*1: 2.0%

GHG Emissions [GtCO2eq/yr]+1.3% yr
1970-2000

N2O: 6.2%
CH4: 16%
CO2 (Forests, other landuses): 11%
CO2 (Fossil Fuel andIndustrial Processes): 65%

F-Gases
N2O
CH4
CO2 (Forests, otherland uses)
CO2 (Fossil Fuel andIndustrial Processes)

Year*1 Gases designated by the Kyoto Protocol*2 Converted to carbon dioxide based on GWP (global warming coefficient, 100 years)

Point

Mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the total atmosphere

Point

3

(From Source 62)

Year(From Source 63)

Change in GHG emissions in JapanThe household sector accounts for 20% ofcarbon dioxide emissions as a whole

GHG emissions slightly reduce
The total volume of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2015 was 1.321 billion
tons, a decrease of 3.0% from the previous year and a decrease of 6.0% from 2013
Point (1)). One of the possible causes for the reduction of GHG emissions from theprevious year and 2013 is reduction of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions due
to reduced electricity demand and improvement of carbon dioxide emission intensityof electricity. The reasons for the reduction in emissions compared to 2005 results
include decreased energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the industry andtransportation sectors while hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) emissions in the refrigerant
sector are increased as an alternative to ozone-depleting substances.
(From Source 64)

GHG emissions

About 94% of carbon dioxide excluding industrial processes and waste is emitted inrelation to energy consumption.
Household emissions, including private cars and municipal waste, account for about
20% of the carbon dioxide emissions as a whole (Point (1)), and a resting 80% isemitted from the business and public sectors.
Note that “power-derived” means emissions derived from power and heat purchasedfrom electric companies and the like, and does not include autoproducers.
Breakdown of carbon dioxide emissions in Japan (2015)(From Source 64)

Point

1

Point

Unit: million tons-CO2 equivalent

1

（FY）

(From Source 64)(From Source 64)

Change in global GHG emissions20

4 Global warming measures

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Chapter
4 -1

Addressing global warming around the world

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted in September 2015 is an international target for a period from 2016 to 2030, focusing on sustainable development goals(SDGs:17 goals and 169 targets). The greatest feature of the agenda is a universality thatallows it to be adopted by all countries, regardless their development level. Many of thegoals are related to the environment. Japan is committed to implementing the agenda at domestic and international locations focusing on the climate change, energy, and sustainableconsumption and production fields. Through implementing the Paris Agreement (discussed
later), countries around the world came to agree to take necessary measures to mitigate
climate change. These measures play an important role in the achievement of the SDGs.
(From Source 65)(From Source 65)

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)
Previous to the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), countries submitted agreenhouse gas emission reduction target after 2020 (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)). One hundred ninety-two countries and regions (including
European countries) submitted, covering around 99% of the GHGs emitted by the signatory nations. The table on the right shows the INDCs of major countries.

(From Source 65)(From Source 65)

Paris Agreement (PA)The Paris Agreement was ratified at the COP21 held in Paris from the end of November through December 2015. This is the first legal framework ever to have a GHG
emission reduction target (contributions) shared by all ratified countries including major emitting countries and developing countries.
The features and significance of the PA can be roughly divided into four categories. The climate agreement is “applicable to all”, “comprehensive”, “durable” and “progressive” manner. This indicates that the Agreement represents a turning point and a new start for global measures against climate change. The PA came into force inNovember 4, 2016. Japan completed the ratification process of the agreement on November 8, 2016.
The PA’s aim includes keeping the global temperature increase in this century well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5ºC, strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change, and providing appropriate financial flow to adapt a roadmap(From Source 65)
towards development resistant to climate change.

Features and significance of the Paris Agreement
Applicable to all

Comprehensive

Many provisions are adaptable to all countries(No specific definition is indicated despite of partial
segregation of “developed countries” and “developing
countries”.)

Define three purposes related to mitigation,
adaptation, and finance.

Improve adaptation of the principle of “equity
and common but differentiatedresponsibilities and respective capabilities”
beyond previous dualism

DurableA permanent framework pursuing longer term
beyond 2025/2030.
Defines long-term goals (e.g. 2°C goals, “emission
and sink balance at the latter half of this century” aslegal agreements for the first time
Formulates a long-term low-emission development
strategy

Use well-balanced factors such as mitigation(emission reduction), adaptation, finance,technology, capacity building, andtransparency.

Progressive

Improve with PDCA cycle reviewing eachcountry’s goals, report/review, check overall
progress.

Based on global progress check (long-term goals), thecountries shall submit and update their contributions
every five years
Make progress beyond previous targets
Report and review efforts taken by the member
countries

Turning point and new launch of tackling global warming(From Source 65)

21

Addressing global warming around the world

Essential elements of the PA

As a long-term common temperature goal, the agreement established thetarget to keep the global temperature increase in this century well below 2ºC
above pre-industrial levels (2ºC target). In addition, the agreement states thatthe member states should pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase evenfurther to 1.5ºC.
The Agreement requires all parties including all major emitters to formulate,submit, and maintain reduction goals, as well as put forward their best efforts
through national adaptation efforts. The agreement also prescribes that parties
shall submit and update their NDCs every 5 years.
All parties that should formulate a long-term low emission development
strategy while keeping low GHG emission shall report the status of
implementation and be reviewed in a common and flexible manner.
Establish a long-term goal on adaptation, implement domestic adaptation
planning processes and actions, and submit adaptation reports and periodic
updates.
Definition of significance of innovation
A mechanism to review global implementation status every five years (global
stocktaking)Developed countries should continue providing financial aid, while rest of theparties voluntarily provide financial aids.
Define the effective use of market mechanisms, including the Joint Crediting
Mechanism/Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism (JCM/BOCM))
Making the effectuation requirements double; not only for the number ofmember states but also the amount of emissions.
(From Source 65)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

4 -2

Addressing global warming in JapanThe Plan for global warming countermeasures
The Plan for global warming countermeasures is Japan’s only comprehensive plan related to global warming that the central government has formulated based on the
Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures. It aims to promote comprehensive and systematic efforts towards global warming measures. The plan describes
GHG emission control and sink targets, basic items related to measures that should be taken by business operators and residents, and measures that should be taken
by central and local governments to achieve goals.
(From Source 66, 67)

Actions to achieve mid-term target

Strategic actions towards long-term goal

(reduction target by FY2030)

Japan takes steady steps to achieve the mid-term target of 26.0%
reduction by FY2030 compared to FY2013 (25.4% compared to
FY2005) through domestic emission reductions and removals
assumed to be obtained.

Actions toward global GHG reduction
A key to maintain compatibility between the global warming
countermeasures and the economic growth is the development ofinnovative technology.
The Government promotes development and demonstration oftechnologies based on, inter alia, “Environmental and Energy
Technology Innovation Plan”, and also enhances R&D of innovativetechnologies based on “National Energy and Environment Strategy
for Technological Innovation towards 2050”. Also, Japan makes fullcontribution to global reduction of GHG emissions utilizing its
leading technologies.

Based on the Paris Agreement, under a fair and effective
international framework applicable to all major Parties, Japanleads international community so that major emitters undertake
emission reduction in accordance with their capacities, and, aims
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 as its
long-term goal, while pursuing the global warming
countermeasures and the economic growth at the same time.
Such a deep cut in emissions is difficult to achieve through theextension of existing measures so far. Therefore, Japan pursues
solution through innovation such as development and deployment
of innovative technologies which enables drastic emission
reductions, and, while promoting domestic investment, enhancing
the international competitiveness, and asking citizens for theiropinion, aims to achieve a deep cut in emissions throughlong-term, strategic actions, and contributes to global GHG
emission reductions.

(Created based on Source 67)

National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
In order to comprehensively and systematically make efforts consistent throughout the government and applicable to a variety of impacts due to climate change, the National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change (draft) was formulated at the third session of the Inter-Ministry Meeting for Climate Change Adaptation held
on November 25, 2015. Thereafter, the cabinet approved the National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change on November 27, 2015.
(From Source 68)

Basic concept
Vision of society

By promoting adaptation measures to climate change impacts,
to build a secure, safe and sustainable society that is able tominimizing and avoiding damage for life of citizens, properties,
economics, and natural environment due to its impacts, and to
be resilient against damage..

PeriodConsidered with long-term perspective till the end of 21st
century,showing the basic direction in about coming 10 years.

Basic approach（1）Mainstreaming adaptation into government policy（2）Enhancement of scientific findings（3）Promotion of understanding and cooperation through sharing
and providing information about climate-related risks（4）Promotion of adaptation in region（5）Promotion of international cooperation and contribution

Adaptation will be promoted by using an adaptive approach thatinvolves a repeated cycle of conducting ongoing observation,
monitoring, and projection of climate change and its impacts,
implementing regular assessments of impacts, considering andimplementing adaptation measures, monitoring the state ofprogress, and making revisions as required.
An assessment of climate change impacts is to be implemented
and formulated approximately every five years, and the Plan is tobe revised as required.

Sectoral measures

Basic international measures

Basic strategy

Agriculture, forests/forestry, fisheries

Human health

Water environment/water resource

Industrial/
economic activity

Natural ecosystems
Natural disasters/Coastal areas

Life of citizens
and urban life

Observation and monitoring, research and studies
Sharing and providing information related toclimate risk
Promote of adaptation in region
International measures(Created based on Source 68)

Addressing global warming in Japan

22

Chapter 4

Global warming measures

Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)
The JCM is established to facilitate diffusion of leading low carbon technologies through which the Government of Japan acquires the credits to be used to achieve its
emission reduction targets and contribute to global actions for GHG emission reductions. There are seventeen JCM partner countries: Mongolia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia,
Kenya, the Maldives, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Palau, Cambodia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Myanmar, Thailand, and the Philippines (as of the end ofJanuary 2017). Ninety-three emission reduction or removal projects are currently being implemented through the JCM financing scheme by the Ministry of the Environ(From Source 66)
ment (MOE).

Japan

Host country

Leading low carbon technologies andimplementation of mitigation actions

JCM projectManagement andOperating by the
Joint Committee

MRV*
GHG emissions
reductions/removals

Credits

Used to achieve Japan’semission reduction target

Measurement, report, verification(From Source 66)

Monitoring GHGs from space
Greenhouse gases–Observing SATellite (GOSAT), aka “IBUKI” was launched on January 23, 2009 tomonitor GHGs (mainly carbon dioxide and methane) from space. GOSAT provides information on carbon dioxide and methane (including geographical distribution and seasonal and interannual variations),
and therefore helps deepen our scientific understanding about climate change. GOSAT also contributes
to future climate change projection and planning measures to reduce GHG emissions. There are plans
to launch GOSAT-2 (the successor of GOSAT) in FY2018.

▶ GOSAT outer view

@JAXA

Disclosing information
Climate change adaptation platform

COOL CHOICE

The climate change adaptation platform serves as the basis of activities of various
parties, such as local governments, business operators, and residents, by providing
information that matches users’ needs, developing and providing tools supporting
adaptation activities, collecting, organizing, and providing superior cases, while
cooperating with government agencies involved. This is a portal site to centrally
provide information related to adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The site
is designed to collect and organize the necessary scientific knowledge (observation
data, climate forecasts, and impact projections) and related information to support
review measures to cope with climate change (adaptation measures).

COOL CHOICE, a national movement encouraging smart selection“COOL CHOICE” is a people’s movement for making all kinds of “smart choices”
that contribute to anti-global measures (e.g. low-carbon products, services, andlifestyles), aiming to achieve a 26% emission reduction in 2030 (40% reduction forresidential and commercial).
(From Source 71)▶ COOL CHOICE symbol(From Source 70)▶ Screen showing climate change adaptation information platform(From Source 71)▶ COOL CHOICE video(From Source 70)

23

Addressing global warming in Japan(From Source 71)

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Implementing local global warming countermeasuresthrough public-private partnerships
Community-based global warming countermeasures through public-private partnerships are implemented not only to achieve a low-carbon society, but also to utilize the(From Source 65)
activities to vitalize local economies and strengthen anti-disaster capacity.
Using biogas

Local production for local consumption of energy

Achieve low-carbon society in remote islands

Higashi-matsushima City, Miyagi Prefecture,
A Smart, Disaster-proof, Eco-friendly Town

Assisting with equipment introduction, such as renewable energy generators
and accumulators in 16 cases in 12 islands throughout Japan(Introducing equipment, accumulator demonstrations)▶Hokkaido Prefecture
Shikaoicho Town

Oshima Island
Shikineshima Island
Kozushima Island

Sado Island
Oki Island
KoshikiIslands

Hydrogengenerator

Hydrogen

Case study:

Hateruma Island, Okinawa
Prefecture
Share of renewable energy
doubled.

Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV)40％

Accumulator

Biogas power
generation

Digestive
juicesThermalelectricity

Used water

Miyakojima Island
Tarama Island
Ishigaki Island
Hateruma Island

YakushimaIsland18％▶Shizuoka Prefecture
Fujinomiya City
▶Kumamot City

Refining biogas

Rishiri Island

Can supply power for
three days, even during
a power failure

Foodresidual

Methane fermentation

Project to promote low-carbon society in remote islands

Achieved Smart Town status based on local
consumption of locally-produced solar power,
accumulators, and privately-owned power grids, insteadof relying on Feed-in tariff.
30% reduction in carbon
dioxide emissions in thearea per year

Animalmanure*23 islands (36 cases) if project-forming investigations are included

Used by FCVs
and fuel cells

Wind turbine

Sewageprocessing plant

Using electricity and heat produced bypower generation at sewage processing
plants, while processing digestive juices(From Source 65)

Green Fund
Assistance using investment through the Green Fund is promoted to infuse private funds into projects promoting low-carbon society.

(From Source 65)

Revitalize local economy

Strengthen anti-disaster capacity

Collaboration with local governments

Woody biomass power generation project in Akita Prefecture

Photovoltaic power generation project in Niigata PrefectureWind power generation project in Hokkaido Prefecture

Local
forestry
workers

Provideunusedwoodmaterials
as fuelUnitedRenewable
Energy Co.,
Ltd. (SPC)

10.6
billionyen

20,000kw

Investment:

Inves
Local
tment companies,
etc.

Investment:

Inves
tment

Loan:

About 12.5
billion yen

1.3
billion yen
0.7
billion yen

OratteCitizen
Energy Co.,
Ltd.(SPC)

Loan Local bank

Local loan

Niigata
city

133
million yen

868kw

Investment:
Free loanof city
91 million yen
249
lands million yen
Investment:

GF

25 million yen

Pump primin
g eff
17 times largerect

Annual carbon
dioxide reduction

Loan:

Atsuta Citizen
Loan:
Wind Power
Loan Local banks
Local
1.4
Placing order Generation
businesses for construction Co., Ltd. (SPC) billion yen
work
Placing orders
Local
for supervising
4,000kw Investment: Inves business,worktment citizen funds,
0.1
1.6
co-ops, etc.
billion yen billion yen Inves
Ishikari
Investment: tment
city
Collaboration
0.1
billion yen

Local bank

Local
Inves
tment businesses
and citizen
funds
Inves
tment

GF

GF

Pump primin
g eff
9 times larger ect

Annual carbon
dioxide reduction

about
78,000 tons

Loan

Annual carbon
dioxide reduction

about
502 tons

Collaborated with local forestry workers to makecontributions to achieve appropriate forest management,
revitalize the local forestry business, and create jobs.

Pump primin
g eff
15 times largerectabout
3,854 tons

Supplying power free of charge to facilities in Niigata
Prefecture when power failures occur due to disasters

Collaborated and cooperated with Ishikari City and useda part of the profits to conserve the local environment.
(From Source 65)

Floating wind turbine power generation
Offshore wind power is a stable and effective power generation method with the largest potential quantity among other renewal energy sources. Floating wind turbinesthat can be used in deeper sea areas (50 m or deeper) have more advantages in Japan, which has few shallow sea areas. Lately, Japan has succeeded in demonstrating practical utilization of commercial-grade (2MW) spar-type floating offshore wind power. Now, ongoing efforts are being made to achieve lower carbon emission and(From Source 65)
more effective construction methods.
Construction, installation, operation, and evaluation of Japan’s first 2MW floating offshore wind turbine power station was implemented (off Goto City, Nagasaki Prefecture)
Demonstration
sea area
Goto City,
NagasakiPrefecture

Goto City, Nagasaki Prefecture
Narushima Island
Hisakajima Island
Fukuejima Island

Observatory tower
250 m fromdemonstrator

KabashimaIslandSite installed withwind turbine
1 km offshore ofKabashima Island

Schedule

2011

Compact-size tester(100 kW)

Design Construction

Demonstrator (2MW)

Reflecting
results of
100-kW machine

Design2014

2015

Installed in June 2012, started operation in August of that year (Japan’s first grid connection)

Construction Building

Installed and started operation in October 2013

Results and knowledge obtained▶Developed the world’s first hybrid

spar-type offshore wind turbine▶Verified superior durability
100 kW Tester

Building

2014*A Feasibility Study was implemented in 2010 and a demonstration sea area and floating structure were selecte▶Effective power generation
Demonstrator (2 MW)

2012

Drastically cut costs by using concrete for the submerged part of the floating bodyOver 30% capacity factor (20% for average land wind turbine) *A 2-MW wind turbine can generate power for 1,800 households
Resisted a direct hit from the largest typhoon in the postwar period with 53 m/s wind velocity and 17 m wave height▶Helping fishermen understand the project

Verified that many fish gather around the floating body Less impact on marine environment(From Source 65)

Addressing global warming in Japan

24

Chapter 4

Global warming measures

Promotion of low-carbon hydrogen
Hydrogen is considered to be a important global warming countermeasure, since it emits no carbon dioxide in end-use and can be used for storing renewable and other energies. To
promote more use of hydrogen, demonstration projects using hydrogen converted from renewable energy and locally consuming them have been taking place throughout Japan.

(From Source 65)

Example of efforts made by MOE: demonstration project in Hokkaido

H2

H2

H2

FCVs
Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV)

Heat
Fuel cells

H2

Small hydropower
generation*In Yokohama and Kawasaki, hydrogen produced bywind power generation is used for forklift operation in warehouses.

Dairy cattle
housing and facilities

Power

H2

Electrolytic hydrogen production

Shiranuka, Hokkaido

Shiranuka, Kushiro City,
Hokkaido PrefectureHigh pressure hydrogen trailer

Heated swimming pool

Power

H2

Heat
(From Source 65)

Technology development using gallium nitride (GaN), and the like
There is an ongoing effort to maximize efficiency in all kinds of electric devices (e.g. semiconductors) using gallium nitride (GaN), alloy nanocryhstals, and the like (example:
cutting energy loss to 1/6 that of conventional materials). The MOE launched technical development in 2014. It plans to launch full-fledged demonstration and verificationof emission reduction after 2017 by mounting developed GaN optical and power devices on instruments.
(From Source 65)

Efficient optical device

GaN-LED

Transformer

Large-current high-voltage
power device

GaN diodePower
conditioner

Power
motor

GaN transistor

HighluminanceLED
Microwave
ovenSuper highefficiency device

ServerCivil sector alone can reduce energy consumption equivalent to four large power plants (1 million kW)(From Source 65)

Cellulose nano-fiber (CNF)
CNF is five times stronger than steel, even though it is just a fifth of the weight Therefore, if CNF is used for vehicle bodies, it will result in a 10% weight reduction. The
MOE is carrying out a project to encourage use of next-generation materials such as cellulose nano-fiber (3.3 billion yen in 2016).

(From Source 65)

Using biomass resources

Producing low-carbon CNF products

Achieve a low-carbon, recycle-oriented society with CNF
Fields where research andBiomass materials
development have taken place(woods, etc.)
Mechanical defibratingprocess, etc.
Conjugated, etc.

Utilize (use)RecycleHousehold electric
appliances
Vehicle(Ventilation fan)(Interior materials
and outer plates, etc.)

High-intensity materials

High-end materials(vehicles, exterior piecesof home appliances, etc.)(building materials,
interior pieces, etc.)

Nano-cellulose

Mounting
to actualmachine

Housing/building materials(Window frame, insulationmaterials, structural materials, etc.)

Promoting social implementation infields contributing to anti-global
warming measures▶Five times stronger than steel, 1/5 lighter▶Low thermal expansion (equivalent to silica glass)▶Shorter wavelength than visible light▶Superior adaptability for recycling▶Renewable resources▶Safe natural resources

Materials with special
Transparent materials
functions(filters, etc.)(electric, optical products, etc.)(Figure: Nona Cellulose Forum)

Business and industrial machines(Air-conditioning blades, etc.)

Renewable energy(Wind blades, etc.)(From Source 65)

25

Addressing global warming in Japan

Chapter

5 FAQ

S T O P G L O B A L W A R M I N G 2 01 7

Let’s learn more about global warming

Q. Isn’t global warming a result of solar activity?
A. The temperature increases cannot be fully explained by the impact of naturally-occurring
phenomena such as solar activities.
This graph shows a comparison between three data: (1) black line: observed annual mean temperature over the last 100 years as published in the IPCC AR5, (2) Blue line:
simulation results considering only the impact caused by natural phenomena (e.g. solar and volcanic activities); and (3) red line: another simulation result adding the impact ofhuman activities (carbon dioxide emission due to industrial activities). The three graphs suggest that the observed results (black line) are consistent with the simulation results
considering both nature-derived and human activity-derived impacts (red line). In other words, the simulation results (blue line) only considering nature-derived impacts (solar,
volcanic, and similar activities only), excluding human activities-derived impacts, is inconsistent with observed data. In other words, the increase in global mean temperature in
the 20th century can be explained by the increase of GHGs due to human activities, and the explanation would not be sufficient without considering human activities. It is clearthat global warming is caused by human activities, since the temperature keep increasing despite weakened solar activities in recent years.
▶ Comparisons with climate change produced by observation and simulations
Global mean

0

-1

2

1960

1910

2010

Stored heat quantity (10 22J)

1Stored heat on the ocean surface

Surface temperature (land and ocean areas)

Temperature (°C)

Temperature (°C)

2Surface temperature (land area)

1

0

-1

1910

1960

2010

20

Observation

10

Model using nature-derived force only0

Model using both natureand human-derived forces

-10

1910

1960

2010

(From Source 4)

Q. Hasn’t temperature increase stagnated in recent years?
A. This is a phenomenon called Hiatus. In the past few years, the temperature has been increasing.
In the period between around 2000 and 2012, the rate of increase of global mean temperature remained at the same level. This stagnant condition of global warming is calleda hiatus. Temperature varies not only with natural mechanisms such as El Niño, but also external factors, including impacts due to volcanic activities and carbon dioxide. These
factors are complexly intertwined. Therefore, even in the process of ongoing global warming, the temperature does not always simply increase as time goes by. Alternating between periods of moderate and radical temperature increases, the global temperature is increasing from a long-term perspective.
According to the IPCC AR5, the temperature increase was stagnant in the period from around 2000 through 2012. The major causes of the Hiatus includes heat sunk into thedeep ocean shores, inactivated solar activities, and impact of volcanic activities. In addition, the temperature has again drastically increased recently, setting new world recordsof annual mean temperature for three consecutive years since 2014.
▶ Change in difference of global annual mean temperature compared to the 1961-1990 average

Difference between annual mean temperature and mean temperature forthe period from 1961 to 1990 (ºC)

Temperature is increasing
again in recent years

Stagnant temperature increase(Hiatus)Met Ofﬁce (UK)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA, US)（Year)The National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA, US)(From Source 72)

Let’s learn more about global warming

26

2100

2m temperature change
MIROC 5 / RCP2.6
Sources-12℃

1. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), “Climate Change Monitoring Report 2015”(http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/monitor/2015/pdf/ccmr2015_all.pdf)
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4. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Original text: http://www.climatechange2013.org/reportJapanese translation of “Summary for Policymakers” : http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ipcc/5th/#WG1
5. JMA website, “Long-term Trend of Sea Surface Temperature (Global Mean)”(http://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/shindan/a_1/glb_warm/glb_warm.html)
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8. JMA website, “Data of Long-term Trend of Sea Surface Temperature (the Sea Near Japan)”(http://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/shindan/a_1/japan_warm/japan_warm_data.html)
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Original text: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/
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12. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan (MAFF), “Effects of Global Warming Study Report 2015”(http://www.maff.go.jp/j/seisan/kankyo/ondanka/attach/pdf/index-3.pdf)
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20. Toru Taniwaki (2013). Current Situation of Decline
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22. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), NEIS Research Booklet No. 53, July, 2014(http://www.nies.go.jp/kanko/kankyogi/53/53.pdf)
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29. Tohoku Region Ecology and Biodiversity Center, Nature Conservation Bureau, MOE website, “Research Study and Monitoring“(http://tohoku.env.go.jp/nature/shirakami/research/)
30. MOE Office website, “Monitoring Site 1000 -Coral Reef-”(http://www.biodic.go.jp/moni1000/coral_reef.html)
31. MOE, “Adaptation to Climate Change in Biodiversity Field” (http://www.env.go.jp/nature/biodic/kikou_tekiou-pamph/tekiou_jp.pdf)
32. MOE pamphlet, “Nationwide Efforts of Nature Restoration: Aiming for symbiosis with nature”(https://www.env.go.jp/nature/saisei/network/relate/li_4_1/10.pdf)
33. Nagano Prefecture website, “Growth Condition Survey of Grouses “(http://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/kanken/chosa/kenkyu/tayose/raicho.html)
34. Ryo Sakurai, Hiromi Kobori (2012). Consciousness of People that is Concerned with the Hirosaki Cherry Blossom Festival on
Global Warming, People and environment, 38(3) 25-28
35. CRED - UNISDR(2016)Poverty & Death: DISASTER MORTALITY, Mortality trends from major disasters from 1996 to 2015
36. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters - CRED(2016)Credcrunch 43: The EM-DAT higher resolution disaster data,
CRED
37. D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, Ph. Hoyois - EM-DAT: International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be – Université Catholique deLouvain – Brussels – Belgium.
38. Public Relations Office of the Government of Japan website, “’ Water-related Disaster Prevention’ to Protect Your Community fromRiver flooding, High Tide and Urban Flood Damage” (http://www.gov-online.go.jp/useful/article/201507/1.html)
39. Public Relations Office of the Government of Japan website, “There are 530,000 Dangerous Places of Landslide Disasters
Nationwide! Three Points to Protect Yourself from Landslide Disasters”(http://www.gov-online.go.jp/useful/article/201106/2.html#anc01)
40. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), “Situations of Landslide Disasters by Prefecture in Recent Years”(http://www.mlit.go.jp/river/sabo/taisaku_syojoho/dosyasaigai_hasseijokyo.pdf )

- 6℃

0℃

+ 6℃

+12℃

AORI / NIES / JAMSTEC / MEXT
41. MOE, “Climate Change Adaptation Information Platform portal site”(http://www.adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/map/national/DisasterSFGCMc.html)
42. EEA (2013), Adaptation in Europe — Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic
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45. JMA website, “Temperature, and Humidity” (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/yougo_hp/kion.html)
46. JMA press release, “India Heat Wave Occurred in Late” June 2, 2015(http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/monitor/extreme_world/monitor/world20150602.pdf)
47. MOE material, “Number of Deaths Caused by 2003 European Heat Wave “(http://www.env.go.jp/council/06earth/y064-11/mat02-10.pdf)
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65. MOE materials
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Front cover: World distribution of temperature deviation of RCP8.5 at 2100 calculated under MIROC5
from annual mean temperature between 1986 and 2005
Back cover: World distribution of temperature deviation of RCP2.6 at 2100 calculated under MIROC5
from annual mean temperature between 1986 and 2005

Planning: Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Editorial Supervisor: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Editing: Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.
Published March 31, 2017