Ballistic Missile Defense Review
ReportFebruary 2010

CONTENTSPREFACEi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYiii

INTRODUCTION

1THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT

3Context

3

The Threat to the Homeland

4

Regional Threats

5

Trends7

Implications

8

STRATEGY AND POLICY FRAMEWORK

11

Policy Priorities

11

Missile Defense: Deterrence, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance Goals

12

DEFENDING THE HOMELAND

15

Status of Current Capability

15

Hedging Against Future Uncertainties

16

In Summary18

DEFENDING AGAINST REGIONAL THREATS

19

Status of Current Capability

19

Near-term Capabilities

20

Long-term Capabilities

21

Integrating Capabilities Regionally

22

The Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe

24

Tailoring Phased Adaptive Approaches to Other Regions

24

The Implications of Phased Adaptive Approaches to Regional Architectures

25

Hedging Against Future Regional Uncertainties

27

Regional Architectures and Defense of the Homeland27

In Summary

28

Case Study: The Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe

29

STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

31

Europe31

East Asia

32

The Middle East

33

Russia

34

China

34

In Summary

35

MANAGING THE MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM

37

Strengthening the Testing Program38

Cost-Effectiveness

39

Internal DoD Oversight41

External Transparency

44

CONCLUSION

47

February 1, 2010i
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Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Department of Defense conducted the first-ever Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Review
from March 2009 through January 2010. Mandated by Congress, and guided by a Presidential
directive, the review comprehensively considered U.S. BMD policies, strategies, plans, andprograms. The review was co-led by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, the Under
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, and the Vice Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff. It also involved participants from the Department of State, the Departmentof Homeland Security, the Intelligence Community, the National Security Staff, and the Officeof Management and Budget.
The Ballistic Missile Threat
The ballistic missile threat is increasing both quantitatively and qualitatively, and is likely tocontinue to do so over the next decade. Current global trends indicate that ballistic missile
systems are becoming more flexible, mobile, survivable, reliable, and accurate, while also
increasing in range. A number of states are also working to increase the protection of theirballistic missiles from pre-launch attack and to increase their effectiveness in penetrating missile
defenses. Several states are also developing nuclear, chemical, and/or biological warheads for their
missiles. Such capabilities could be significant sources of military advantage during a conflict. But
they may be equally significant in times of relative peace, when they undergird efforts to coerce
states near and far. Regional actors such as North Korea and Iran continue to develop long-range
missiles that will be threatening to the United States. There is some uncertainty about when andhow this type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat to the U.S. homeland will
mature, but there is no uncertainty about the existence of regional threats. They are clear andpresent. The threat from short-range, medium-range, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles(SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs) in regions where the United States deploys forces and maintains
security relationships is growing at a particularly rapid pace.
Strategy and Policy Framework
Following guidance from the President, this review has set the following policy priorities:
1. The United States will continue to defend the homeland against the threat of limited
ballistic missile attack.
2. The United States will defend against regional missile threats to U.S. forces, while
protecting allies and partners and enabling them to defend themselves.
3. Before new capabilities are deployed, they must undergo testing that enables assessment
under realistic operational conditions.
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4. The commitment to new capabilities must be fiscally sustainable over the long term.
5. U.S. BMD capabilities must be flexible enough to adapt as threats change.
6. The United States will seek to lead expanded international efforts for missile defense.
Defending the Homeland
The United States is currently protected against limited ICBM attacks. This is a result ofinvestments made over the past decade in a system based on ground-based midcourse defense(GMD). Because of continuing improvements in the GMD system and the number of groundbased interceptors now deployed compared to potential North Korean and Iranian long-range
ballistic missile capabilities, the United States possesses a capability to counter the projected
threat from North Korea and Iran for the foreseeable future.
Given uncertainty about the future ICBM threat, including the rate at which it will mature, it isimportant that the United States maintain this advantageous position. But doing so does not
require that the United States develop these capabilities at the same accelerated rate or with thesame level of risk as in recent years. Rather, the United States will refocus its homeland ballistic
missile defense program as it began to do with the fiscal year (FY) 2010 budget—maintaining thecurrent level of capability with 30 ground-based interceptors (GBIs) and further developing
proven capabilities that will enhance homeland defense should a new threat emerge.
Toward that end, the United States will:

Maintain readiness and continue to develop existing operational capabilities at Fort
Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

Complete the second field of 14 silos at Fort Greely to hedge against the possibility that
additional deployments become necessary.



Deploy new sensors in Europe to improve cueing for missiles launched at the UnitedStates by Iran or other potential adversaries in the Middle East.



Invest in further development of the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) for future land-based
deployment as the ICBM threat matures.



Increase investments in sensors and early-intercept kill systems to help defeat missile
defense countermeasures.



Pursue a number of new GMD system enhancements, develop next generation missile
defense capabilities, and advance other hedging strategies including continued
development and assessment of a two-stage ground-based interceptor.

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Defending Against Regional Threats
Over the past decade, the United States has madesignificant progress in developing and fielding
capabilities for protection against attack fromshort- and medium-range ballistic missiles. These
include increasingly capable PATRIOT batteries
for point defense, the AN/TPY-2 X-band radar for
detecting and tracking ballistic missiles, Terminal
High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries
for area defense, space-based sensors, and sea-based
capabilities such as the SM-3 Block IA interceptor.
However, these capabilities exist in numbers thatare only modest in view of the expanding regional PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES NEW APPROACH
missile threat. Accordingly, in the FY 2010 budget, TO MISSILE DEFENSE. President Obama directed
a comprehensive review of ballistic missile defense
and continuing across the FY 2011–15 time frame, policy and programs. The review’s findings related to
the Department of Defense will further invest in Europe were announced on Sept. 17, 2009. Official
White House photo by Pete Souza.
these deployable assets while developing new
capabilities such as a land-based SM-3 system (tentatively called “Aegis Ashore”) and airborne
infrared sensors that will make possible the simultaneous detection and tracking of ballistic
missiles by unmanned aerial vehicles. Looking out over the longer term (i.e., in the 2015 to 2020
time frame), the Department is pursuing even more capable SM-3s and persistent overhead
sensors in space capable of detecting and tracking large raid sizes.
Integrating Capabilities RegionallyAs threats have advanced and technical solutions have matured, it has become increasingly
important to think strategically about the deployment of low-density, high-demand missile
defense assets in a regional context. Such deployments must be tailored to the unique deterrence
and defense requirements of each region, which vary considerably in their geography, thecharacter of the threat, and the military-to-military relationships on which to build cooperative
missile defenses.
Several principles will guide how BMD is used in the development of these regional approaches
to deterrence and defense:
1. The United States will work with allies and partners to strengthen regional deterrencearchitectures, which must be built on the foundation of strong cooperative relationships andappropriate burden sharing.

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2. The United States will pursue a phased adaptive approach to missile defense within eachregion that is tailored to the threats and circumstances unique to that region.
3. Because the potential global demand for missile defense assets over the next decade may
exceed supply, the United States will develop capabilities that are mobile and relocatable.
These three principles will be applied on a region-by-region basis. The Department will rely on
the Global Force Management process to assist in decisions on the allocation of missile defense
forces. For the European region, the Administration announced the European Phased Adaptive
Approach (PAA) in September 2009, following the unanimous recommendation to the President
by the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the prior plan for missile defense
protection in Europe be revised.
Strengthening International Cooperation
Another key objective is to lead expanded international efforts and cooperation on missile
defense. The United States seeks to create an environment in which the development,
acquisition, deployment, and use of ballistic missiles by regional adversaries can be deterred,principally by eliminating their confidence in the effectiveness of such attacks. Toward this end,
the United States seeks broad-based international cooperation.
Strengthening cooperation with allies and partners to develop and field robust, pragmatic, andcost-effective capabilities is an important priority. In Europe, the Administration is committed to
implementing the new European Phased Adaptive Approach within a NATO context. In East
Asia, the United States is working to improve missile defenses through a series of bilateralrelationships. The United States is also pursuing strengthened cooperation with a number ofpartners in the Middle East.
The Administration also seeks to engage Russia and China on missile defense. With Russia, it ispursuing a broad agenda focused on shared early warning of missile launches, possible technicalcooperation, and even operational cooperation. With China, the Administration seeks further
dialogue on strategic issues of interest to both nations, including missile defense. As it pursues
these discussions, the Administration will continue to reject any negotiated restraints on U.S.
ballistic missile defenses.
Managing the Missile Defense Program
The Administration is committed to deploying capabilities that have been proven under
extensive testing and assessment and are affordable over the long term.
To strengthen the testing program, a number of steps are being taken. Working in close
partnership with the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, as requested by Congress, theMissile Defense Agency announced a new approach to testing in June 2009. This program setsvi
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out test activities over the full course of each system’s development, not just two years into the
future as under the former program. These activities include a comprehensive set of ground andflight tests designed to demonstrate operational performance and validate models used to support
an evaluation of system effectiveness. The new master plan is to be reviewed and updated
semiannually. This new approach will be evaluated after one year of experience (June 2010), andany necessary adjustments will be made at that time.
To ensure adequate oversight of the missile defense program, DoD has enhanced the roles andresponsibilities of the Missile Defense Executive Board (MDEB). Established in March 2007, the
MDEB provides oversight and guidance in a collaborative mode involving all missile defense
stakeholders in DoD and some from outside DoD. The Board’s work on requirements is
supplemented by the work of the Warfighter Involvement Process, which is chaired by U.S.
Strategic Command. The MDEB also oversees the Ballistic Missile Defense System Life Cycle
Management Process, which is used by DoD to identify requirements, allocate resources, andprovide departmental insight to control costs.
After careful study, DoD has come to the conclusion that it does not see benefit in bringing
MDA into the Joint Capabilities Integration Development System (JCIDS) or the full DoD
5000 acquisition reporting process at this time. There is, however, benefit in further innovationin management of the program, and DoD is pursuing the creation of additional hybrid
MDA/Service program offices.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportviiiBallistic Missile Defense Review ReportINTRODUCTION
Upon taking office, President Obama directed a comprehensive review of U.S. ballistic missile
defense (BMD) policies, strategies, plans, and programs. The United States Congress also
mandated that the Department of Defense (DoD) conduct a review of ballistic missile defense
strategy and policy. This report contains the findings and recommendations pursuant to thisguidance. It addresses the matters of particular interest to Congress, and does so in a broad
framework that reflects the President’s guidance and sets out associated policy and programmatic
decisions reflected in the current budget proposals.
This report serves multiple purposes. It is intended to match U.S. strategies, policies, andcapabilities to the requirements of the 21st-century threats facing the nation now and in the
future and to inform DoD planning, programming, budgeting, and oversight. It is also intended
to facilitate executive-legislative dialogue and decision making, dialogue with allies and partners,
and informed public discussion of key policy choices.
The BMD review was conducted over ten months in close coordination with many stakeholders
both inside DoD and beyond. At DoD, the review was led jointly by the Under Secretary for
Policy, the Under Secretary for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, and the Vice Chairmanof the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It involved close collaboration with the Missile Defense Agency(MDA). The Military Departments, combatant commands, and multiple elements of the Officeof the Secretary of Defense also contributed to the analytical work. Participants from outside
DoD included the Department of State and the Department of Homeland Security, theIntelligence Community, the National Security Staff, and the Office of Management andBudget. This review was also developed in close coordination with ongoing parallel studies,including principally the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Nuclear Posture Review, and theSpace Posture Review, with the aim of integrating analyses and addressing crosscutting issues.
The report begins with an overview of the ballistic missile threat to the United States and its
allies, considering specific threats in a broad context of key trends and uncertainties. The reportthen turns to the strategy and policy framework and the priorities of the Administration. In thefollowing sections, the report describes the steps proposed by the Administration both to defend
the homeland and to address threats to our forces overseas, and our allies and partners. It also setsout in detail steps to strengthen international cooperation on BMD. The report then addresses a
series of issues associated with the Department’s management of the missile defense program.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportTHE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATContext
The threat posed by ballistic missile delivery systems is likely to increase while growing more
complex over the next decade. This judgment by the Intelligence Community is borne out by
recent events, such as Iran’s launch of a new mobile, solid-propellant medium range ballistic
missile (MRBM) in December 2009. Ballistic missile systems are becoming more flexible,
mobile, survivable, reliable, and accurate while also increasing in range. Pre-launch survivability isalso likely to increase as potential adversaries strengthen their denial and deception measures andincreasingly base their missiles on mobile platforms.
Key trends in the development of the threat include the following:

The threat is increasing both quantitatively and qualitatively.



Quantitatively, many states with missiles are increasing their inventories, at the same timethat a growing number of states are deploying missiles with greater capabilities.

More states are moving to advanced liquid-propellant systems and even to solid-propellant
systems, which increase flexibility, mobility, survivability, and reliability.



Ranges are increasing, putting ever more targets at risk.

Accuracy is increasing, making these systems more effective against point targets.

Some states are working to defeat missile defenses, through both technical and operationalcountermeasures.

Some states are also taking steps to increase the protection of their ballistic missiles frompre-launch attack, including through more aggressive denial and deception practices aswell as a shift to mobile systems.

Some states are also developing nuclear, chemical, and/or biological warheads for missiles,
and if they are successful in these efforts, the threat to others will be greatly magnified.



These technical capabilities could be significant sources of military advantage during a
conflict. But they may be equally significant in times of peace or crisis, when they may
undergird efforts to coerce other states.

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The Threat to the Homeland
One of the most significant threats to the U.S. homeland is the continued progress of regional
actors in developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the means to deliver them byballistic missiles. North Korea, which has demonstrated its nuclear ambitions and continues todevelop long-range missiles, is of particular concern. Following the Taepo Dong 1 missile test in
1998, North Korea has conducted flight tests of the Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) missile in 2006 andmore recently in April 2009. Despite the most recent launch’s failure in its stated mission oforbiting a small communications satellite, it successfully tested many technologies associated withan ICBM. Although the test launches of the TD-2 in 2006 and 2009 were deemed unsuccessful,
we must assume that sooner or later North Korea will have a successful test of its TD-2 and, if
there are no major changes in its national security strategy in the next decade, it will be able tomate a nuclear warhead to a proven delivery system.

NORTH KOREAN AND IRANIAN BALLISTICMISSILE ACTIVITIES. Ongoing developmental andtesting efforts by North Korea and Iran include the launch ofan Iranian satellite on February 2, 2009 (left photo), and
the April 5, 2009 launch of a North Korean Taepo Dong 2(right photo). The TD-2 could be capable of reaching partsof the United States.

Although Iran has not stated an intent todevelop ICBMs, it continues to pursue
longer-range ballistic missiles. Iran launched
its Safir Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) in
August 2008 with what it claims was adummy satellite. Iran used the Safir-2 SLV toplace the domestically produced Omid
satellite in orbit in February 2009, according
to statements made to the press by Iranian
officials. Despite continued diplomatic efforts
Iran also continues to defy its international
obligations on its nuclear program, further
reducing international confidence in thenature of its program. These factors only
compound international concerns about theintent of its ballistic missile program.

Looking ahead, it is difficult to predict precisely how the threat to the U.S. homeland will evolve,
but it is certain that it will do so. Iran and North Korea have yet to demonstrate an ICBM-classwarhead. How rapidly and successfully North Korea and Iran pursue this and other capabilities
are an open question, as is the speed with which they might actually deploy capabilities andincrease their numbers over time. Working with the international community, the United States
will continue to seek to stem these threats, through diplomacy and other means.
Today, only Russia and China have the capability to conduct a large-scale ballistic missile attackon the territory of the United States, but this is very unlikely and not the focus of U.S. BMD. As

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the President has made clear, both Russia and China are important partners for the future, andthe United States seeks to continue building collaborative and cooperative relationships withthem. With Russia, the Administration is pursuing an agenda aimed at bringing the strategic
military postures of the two countries into alignment with their post – Cold War relationship –no longer enemies, no significant prospect of war between them, and cooperating when mutuallyadvantageous. The United States will continue to engage with Russia’s neighbors as fully
independent and sovereign states, and looks forward to a peaceful and prosperous Russia thatmakes contributions to international peace and security as a global partner. The Administration
is closely monitoring China’s continuing buildup of military capability, including its missile
forces. While the United States will ensure that we can defend our interests in the region, we
remain committed to a relationship that is positive, cooperative, and comprehensive and do notbelieve a hostile or adversarial relationship with China is by any means inevitable.

Regional Threats
Regional actors, such as North Korea in Northeast Asia and Iran and Syria in the Middle East,
have short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles that threaten U.S. forces, allies, andpartners in regions where the United States deploys forces and maintains security relationships.
North Korea conducted seven widely publicized ballistic missile launches on July 4–5, 2006. It
successfully tested six mobile theater ballistic missiles, demonstrating a capability to target U.S.
and allied forces in South Korea and Japan. On July 3–4, 2009, it again exercised its capability tothreaten U.S. and allied forces and populations in South Korea and Japan by launching sevenballistic missiles. North Korea has developed an advanced solid-propellant short-range ballistic
missile (SRBM). A mobile IRBM is also under development.
New IRBM 3,200 km

M oscow

ShemyaLondonPrague Warsaw

No Dong 1,300 km

Scud C 500 km
Scud B 300 km

Beijing
Seoul

AnkaraTokyo
New Solid MRBM and
Shahab-3 Variant
2,000 km

New Solid MRBM
and Shahab-3
Variant 2,000 km

TaipeiShahab-3
1,300 kmShahab-1 300 km
RiyadhShahab-3 1,300 km

Fateh-110 250 km
Shahab 1 300 km

Shahab 2 500 km

Shahab-2 500 km

Guam

North Korea

Iran

GROWING BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS. Iran and North Korea continue to pursue ballistic missiles withextended ranges. Iran is developing and testing ballistic missiles capable of targeting much of Europe.

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Iran also presents a significant regional missile threat. It has developed and acquired ballistic
missiles capable of striking deployed forces, allies, and partners in the Middle East and Eastern
Europe. It is fielding increased numbers of mobile regional ballistic missiles and has claimed thatit has incorporated anti-missile-defense tactics and capabilities into its ballistic missile forces.
Iran has an extensive missile
development program andhas received support in thepast from entities in Russia,
China, and North Korea.
DIA believes that Iran still
depends on outside sources
for many of the related dualuse raw materials andcomponents; for example, IRANIAN SHAHAB-3 VARIANT MRBM. The Iranian Shahab-3, with
the Shahab-3 MRBM is based a range of 1,300–2,000 km, is a mobile system capable of evasion.
on the North Korean No
Dong missile. Iran continues to modify this missile to extend its range and effectiveness. In 2004,
Iran claimed that it tested an improved version of the Shahab-3; subsequent statements by
Iranian officials suggest that the improved Shahab-3’s range is up to 2,000 kilometers and that
Iran has the ability to mass-produce these missiles. In addition, Iran’s solid-propellant rocket andmissile programs are progressing, and Iran has flight-tested a new solid-propellant MRBM with aclaimed range of 2,000 kilometers. Iran is also likely working to improve the accuracy of its
SRBMs.
Syria also presents a regional threat. It has several hundred SCUD-class and SS-21 SRBMs andmay have chemical warheads available for a portion of its SCUD missiles. All of Syria’s missiles
are mobile and can reach much of Israel and large portions of Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey fromlaunch sites well within the country.
The commitment of the United States to defend against ballistic missile capabilities from North
Korea and Iran stems from the U.S. perception, shared by our allies and partners, that they arethreatening. North Korea and Iran have shown contempt for international norms, pursued illicit
weapons programs in defiance of the international community, and have been highly provocativein both their actions and statements. They have exploited the capabilities available to them tothreaten others. Their neighbors—and the United States—may be limited in their actions andpursuit of their interests if they are vulnerable to North Korean or Iranian missiles. Deterrence isa powerful tool, and the United States is seeking to strengthen deterrence against these newchallenges. But deterrence by threat of a strong offensive response may not be effective against

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these states in a time of political-military crisis. Risk-taking leaders may conclude that they can
engage the United States in a confrontation if they can raise the stakes high enough bydemonstrating the potential to do further harm with their missiles. Thus U.S. missile defenses are
critical to strengthening regional deterrence.

Trends
It is difficult to make confident predictions about the future of the missile threat. However, there
are a number of regional and global trends in the development, deployment, and proliferation ofballistic missiles and their associated technologies that are of concern to the United States.
One regional trend that particularly concerns the United States is the growing imbalance ofpower across the Taiwan Strait in China’s favor. China is developing advanced ballistic missile
capabilities that can threaten its neighbors, and anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capabilities
that can attempt to target naval forces in the region. China continues to field very large numbersof conventionally armed SRBMs opposite Taiwan and is developing a number of new mobile
conventionally armed medium-range systems. Moreover, China has upgraded programs forcommand and control, communications, intelligence, and other related force capabilities, andcontinues to develop new SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs. These missiles are key components ofBeijing’s military modernization program. Chinese missiles will be capable of reaching not justimportant Taiwan military and civilian facilities but also U.S. and allied military installations in
the region.
Globally, the Intelligence Community continues to see a progression in development from shortto medium- and in some cases intermediate-range missiles. Development programs reflectincreasing ambition in improving payload, range, precision, and operational performance. Thosedevelopment programs could be helped by the open market that now exists in many of theassociated technologies, materials, and expertise. These include the potential for salvo launches
and for systems with technologies that enable the penetration of ballistic missile defenses. Thereis no global norm or treaty banning trade in ballistic missiles (the function of the Missile
Technology Control Regime is to facilitate ad hoc coordination of export controls among likeminded exporters who desire to keep militarily sensitive technologies out of the hands ofdangerous states).
An important uncertainty exists in this future landscape. Some non-state actors have sought
weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. These organizations, and theproliferation networks (front companies, shippers, facilitators) with which they are affiliated, areoften able to sidestep or outpace international detection and export control regimes. So far, state
sponsors of terror appear to be reluctant to transfer WMD capabilities to the terrorists
themselves. This could change abruptly, however. The possibility of such transfer is on the rise in
the Middle East. Hezbollah, for example, has already acquired and used rockets for the delivery
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of conventional munitions against Israel. The advent of ballistic missile threats from suchterrorist organizations would raise profound new questions about regional security.

IRANIAN SALVO LAUNCH. The technique of launching missiles in salvos (shown here during an Iranian exercise in2006) demonstrates interest and capability in defeating missile defenses, thereby increasing the likelihood of a missile
reaching its target. Two years later Iran would make world headlines by doctoring a photo of a different salvo launch
during a follow-on exercise, but that should not be construed as an inability to conduct such launches.

Two additional factors stand out in this proliferation landscape. First, there is the potential for a
substantial increase in the transfer of advanced capabilities from both government andnongovernment entities in some technically advanced countries. Some states with more advanced
capabilities continue to transfer both technologies and systems to those with less maturecapabilities. These actions underscore the importance of building consensus with othergovernments about the damaging impact on stability and security of such transfers, and ofdrawing them more deeply into a global approach that stigmatizes missile proliferation as a threat
to peace. Second, there is the potential for increasingly sophisticated regional missile threat
capabilities. Proliferators are increasing the number of deployed systems (and thus raid sizes),
shifting from liquid- to solid-fueled systems, and deploying missile defense countermeasures.
These threats are inherently difficult to predict, but indicators and warnings associated with suchthreats remain under intense scrutiny by the Intelligence Community and our allies and partners,
who are similarly concerned about these destabilizing trends.

Implications
This assessment of the threat points to two key implications for U.S. defense planning. First,
U.S. defense investments must be balanced in a way that enables the effective defense of the U.S.
homeland and of U.S. forces, allies, and partners overseas in both the near term and long term.
The Department must ensure that the balance of investments is rigorously assessed andconsistently applied across each annual budget and that the assessments of plans against projected8Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report

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threats are updated periodically. This analysis also shows the need to maintain a strong focus by
the Intelligence Community on the ballistic missile threat and strong intelligence relationships
with allies and partners. Accurate and timely intelligence should play a vital role in informing
defense planning; assessments of what we do not know with confidence play an equally vital role.
Second, our defensive capabilities must be adaptable to unexpected threat developments. Threats
may mature more rapidly or more slowly than predicted, may appear in unexpected locations, or
may involve novel technologies or concepts of operations. It is essential that the United States bewell hedged and have a strong posture against unpredicted threat developments.

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STRATEGY AND POLICY FRAMEWORK
Policy Priorities
In support of presidential guidance, this review has set the following policy priorities.
First, the United States will continue to defend the homeland from limited ballistic missile
attack. These efforts are focused on protecting the homeland from a ballistic missile attack by aregional actor such as North Korea or Iran. Through our continued commitment to maintainand develop the ground-based mid-course defense (GMD) system, the United States seeks todissuade such states from developing an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), deter themfrom using an ICBM if they develop or acquire such a capability, and defeat an ICBM attack bysuch states should deterrence fail.
Second, the United States will defend U.S. deployed forces from regional missile threats while
also protecting our allies and partners and enabling them to defend themselves. This policy has
guided the development of U.S. capabilities since the emergence of the ballistic missile
proliferation problem in the 1980s and the development of initial terminal defense capabilities(e.g., PATRIOT) in the early 1990s. As regional protection capabilities begin to take shape, it isimportant to ensure effective operational and political cooperation with allies and partners.
Third, before new capabilities are deployed they must undergo testing that enables an assessment
under realistic operational conditions against threat-representative targets to demonstrate thatthey can reliably and effectively help U.S. forces accomplish their mission. Over the past decade,it was deemed necessary to rapidly put capabilities in place to address emerging threats while
those systems were still in development. The Administration will take a different approach, best
characterized as “fly before you buy,” which will result in a posture based on proven technology
in order to improve reliability, confidence, and cost control.
Fourth, the commitment to new capabilities must be fiscally sustainable over the long term.
National investments must be managed to ensure that there are sound capability improvements
at reasonable cost and in overall balance with other defense priorities. Toward that end, theAdministration has charted a new course for spending on its BMD programs. The President has
made clear that the United States will move forward with missile defenses that are affordable,
proven, and responsive to the threat. This primarily means that the Department of Defense willrealign spending away from defenses planned to rely on currently immature technology, awayfrom technologies that require unrealistic concepts of operations in order to be effective, andaway from technologies intended to defeat adversarial missile threats that do not exist and are notexpected to evolve in the near to midterm. These considerations led to the decisions to terminate

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both the Multiple Kill Vehicle and Kinetic Energy Interceptor programs and to shift the
Airborne Laser to a technology demonstration program in the FY 2010 budget.
Fifth, U.S. BMD capabilities must be adaptable to future threats and flexible to adjust as thethreats change. Hedging against potential changes in the threat is essential given the uncertainty
associated with the missile capabilities of potential adversaries.
Sixth, the United States will seek to lead expanded international efforts for missile defense. It will
work more intensively with allies and partners to provide pragmatic and cost-effective capacity.
The United States will also continue in its efforts to establish a cooperative BMD relationshipwith Russia. The United States, with the support of allies and partners, seeks to create anenvironment in which the acquisition, deployment, and use of ballistic missiles by regional
adversaries can be deterred, principally by eliminating their confidence in the effectiveness ofsuch attacks, and thereby devaluing their ballistic missile arsenals. This will help undergird a
broader strategic objective: to strengthen deterrence in key regions through the integrated andinnovative use of military and nonmilitary means that adapt regional deterrence architectures to
21st-century requirements.

Missile Defense: Deterrence, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance Goals
Missile defenses support a number of defense strategy goals. Ballistic missile defenses help
support U.S. security commitments to allies and partners. They provide reassurance that theUnited States will stand by those commitments despite the growth in the military potential ofregional adversaries. Missile defenses also aid the United States in maintaining military freedomof maneuver, by helping to negate the coercive potential of regional actors intent on inhibiting
and disrupting U.S. military access in their regions. Missile defenses are an essential element of
the U.S. commitment to strengthen regional deterrence architectures against states acquiring
nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in contravention of international norms
and in defiance of the international community. They also support U.S. and allied capacities formutual defense in the face of coercion and aggression by these defiant states. In these ways,
missile defenses strengthen U.S. goals of deterrence, extended deterrence, and assurance. In sodoing, they contribute to international peace and stability and reinforce the global
nonproliferation regime. If Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions become morepeaceful and stable as a result of these and other measures, then more states in these regions may
be willing to take steps back from the “nuclear tipping point” and toward stronger and more
effective implementation of global treaty regimes.
Both Russia and China have repeatedly expressed concerns that U.S. missile defenses adversely
affect their own strategic capabilities and interests. The United States will continue to engage
them on this issue to help them better understand the stabilizing benefits of missile defense—
particularly China, which claims to have successfully demonstrated its own ground-based
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midcourse interception on January 11, 2010. As the United States has stated in the past, thehomeland missile defense capabilities are focused on regional actors such as Iran and North
Korea. While the GMD system would be employed to defend the United States against limited
missile launches from any source, it does not have the capacity to cope with large scale Russian orChinese missile attacks, and is not intended to affect the strategic balance with those countries.
This missile defense strategy is part of a larger strategic framework. The Administration intends
to leverage all elements of national power to prevent and deter conflicts. Doing so should help
mitigate the factors that drive some countries to seek ballistic missiles. The Administration’s
national security approach also seeks collaborative approaches with allies and partners, in order tostrengthen international responses to shared challenges. Improved missile defenses and the
supporting policy agenda elaborated here are integral to these larger purposes. They are intended
to reinforce broad efforts to mitigate the missile (and nuclear) threats through political andcooperative measures rather than by reliance on military means alone.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportDEFENDING THE HOMELAND
This section addresses the first element of the strategy and policy framework: to defend thehomeland from the threat of a limited ballistic missile attack.

Status of Current Capability
The United States is currently protected against the threat of limited ICBM attack, as a result ofinvestments made over the past decade in a system based on Ground-based Midcourse Defense(GMD). This system relies on ground-based interceptors at two sites: Fort Greely, Alaska, andVandenberg Air Force Base, California. By the end of FY 2010, the United States will deploy atotal of 30 GBIs, with 26 at Fort Greely and 4 at Vandenberg. To enable these ground-based
systems to successfully intercept attacking missiles in the midcourse part of their trajectory, theUnited States employs early warning radars in Alaska, California, Greenland, and the United
Kingdom; afloat radar systems (i.e., Aegis destroyers, Aegis cruisers, and Sea-Based X-band radar[SBX]); and a sophisticated command and control infrastructure.
Over the past few years, the United States accelerated development of these homeland defense
capabilities by simultaneously developing and fielding them. This step was taken largely in orderto facilitate their deployment
in time to coincide with the
expected
deployment
of
ICBMs by North Korea andits potential transfer of
ICBMs to others. That
projected ICBM deployment
has not yet occurred.
Given
the
continuing
improvement in the GMD
system and the number of PROTECTION AGAINST ICBM ATTACKS FROM NORTH KOREA.
With ground-based interceptors fielded in Alaska and California, land-based
ground-based
interceptors radar in Alaska and Japan, and sea-based Radar in the Pacific, the United
currently deployed compared States can defend the shaded areas from any future long-range missile attackfrom North Korea.
to potential North Korean and
Iranian capabilities, the United States now possesses a capacity to counter the projected threats
from North Korea and Iran for the foreseeable future.
Because of uncertainty about the future ICBM threat, including the rate at which it will mature,
it is important that the United States maintain this advantageous position. But doing so does not

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require that the UnitedStates continue to developthese capabilities at thesame accelerated rate as it
has in recent years andaccept the same level ofrisk in the developmental
program. Rather, theUnited States will refocus
itshomelandmissilePROTECTION AGAINST ICBM ATTACKS FROM IRAN. The ground-based defense plans to maintaininterceptors fielded in Alaska and California will provide protection from any future
the current level of
Iranian ICBM capability.
capability,while
developing future, proven capabilities that will enhance homeland defense should a new threat
emerge. This refocused approach was introduced in the FY 2010 budget submission, in which
the Department of Defense proposed to hold the number of operationally deployed GBIs at 30,
instead of the 44 originally planned.

Hedging Against Future Uncertainties
An essential element of the United States’ homeland ballistic missile defense strategy is to hedge
against future uncertainties, including both the uncertainty of future threat capabilities and thetechnical risk inherent to our own development plans. The United States must be prepared withother options if the threat assessment changes or if the development of new technical capabilities
are delayed.
The FY 2011 budget request demonstrates the Administration’s commitment to providing arobust defense of the United States against long-range threats and to hedge against improvementsin the capabilities of potential adversaries. To ensure that our homeland defense remains
effective and viable over the long term, the Department will seek funding for a substantial
investment in a number of new GMD system enhancements. These include a program toincrease GMD system reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM); a program to guard
against ground system obsolescence; and funding to restart the Future Avionics
Upgrade/Obsolescence Program (FAU/OP). The Department will also emphasize provencapabilities by requesting funding for additional GMD testing, including the addition of an
ICBM-class target and planning for a salvo test.

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The threat environment described earlier reinforces
the need for the United States to maintain a flexible
approach to developing missile defense capabilities.
The Department must be prepared to adjust its
plans as the threat evolves. The Missile Defense
Agency is currently developing next-generation
missile defense capabilities to counter future threats.
Within this set of capabilities, a number of newtechnologies and concepts are being pursued to
improve homeland defense. These include
intercepting long-range missiles early in their flight,
launching interceptors based on remote sensor
information, and strengthening ballistic missile
sensor networks. In addition, MDA will begin
advanced technology development for a newStandard Missile 3 variant, the Block IIB, whichshould provide some capability to intercept longrange missiles. These developments will ensure that
the United States will stay ahead of the emerging
long-range ballistic missile threat.

GROUND-BASED INTERCEPTOR. Secretary
Gates is shown here viewing a ground-based
interceptor in its silo at one of three ballistic missile
defense fields at Fort Greely, Alaska on June 1, 2009.

In addition to continuing to sustain and improve the GMD system through a variety of means,including a rigorous flight testing program, the United States is also pursuing several otherhedging strategies for defense of the homeland against a ballistic missile attack. For example, theUnited States will continue development and assessment of a two-stage ground-based
interceptor. We will also pursue multiple paths to develop and deploy ballistic missile sensors,
including both airborne and space-based detection and tracking systems. Although the Airborne
Laser (ABL) program has been restructured, the Department will continue to research thepotential of directed energy systems for missile defenses, including the establishment of a directedenergy research program inside MDA. MDA “red team” activities also support hedging by
anticipating possible future changes in the threat.
The Department also plans to complete the construction of Missile Field 2 in Fort Greely, Alaska
by emplacing the full 14 GBI silos and making those silos operationally ready. This will both
replace older, inadequate silos from Missile Field 1 and provide a reserve capability to rapidly
deploy up to 8 additional GBIs from the pool of interceptors currently designated for testing.
Although the Department does not currently foresee a need for more than 30 deployed GBIs,
these extra operational silos will provide an additional hedge against future threat uncertainty.
The Department does not require the procurement of additional GBIs for this purpose.
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In Summary
To sustain homeland protection over the near and long term, the Administration plans acomprehensive agenda with the following elements:
1. Existing operational capabilities at the two sites will be maintained and their continued
development will proceed through rigorous tests. These capabilities include both thethree-stage missiles deployed at both sites and potentially the two-stage missiles originallyplanned for deployment in Europe.
2. The second field of 14 silos at Fort Greely will be completed so that extra silos are ready if
additional GBI deployments become necessary. Supplemental sensors will be deployed to
improve the tracking of missiles launched at the United States.
3. Investments in SM-3 development will be made for future land-based deployment as the
ICBM threat matures.
4. Investments in sensors and early-intercept kinetic kill systems will be increased to enableintercepts to help defeat countermeasures.
5. Additional programs to hedge against future uncertainties will also be pursued.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportDEFENDING AGAINST REGIONAL THREATS
The second element of the Administration’s strategy and policy framework is defense against
regional missile threats to U.S. forces, allies, and partners. Whereas homeland defense benefits
from the relatively long flight times associated with ICBM threats, which allow time for complex
system response and for large interceptors such as GBIs to provide an effective defense, defending
against regional missile threats involves much shorter flight times and thus necessitates a highly
agile missile defense system and responsive command and control authorities. Because of thelarge and increasing numbers of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, any regional missile
defense capabilities must also be produced and fielded in sufficient quantity to deter and defend
against those threats.

Status of Current Capability
Over the past decade the United States has made significant progress in developing and fielding
essential capabilities for protection against attack from short- and medium-range ballistic
missiles. These capabilities include increasingly capable PATRIOT batteries that provide point
defense against short-range ballistic missiles, the powerful AN/TPY-2 X-band radar for detecting
and tracking ballistic missiles, and soon-to-be-deployed THAAD batteries for defense against
both short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Sea-based capabilities have also continued todevelop. The Aegis system offers not only the ability to provide surveillance and tracking ofballistic missiles but also an upper-tier missile defense capability in the form of the SM-3 Block
IA interceptor. Spaced-based sensors detect ballistic missile launches and provide data to groundand sea-based missile defense assets.
However,thesecapabilities are modest
numbers when set against
the rapidly expanding
regional missile threat.
The Administration took
steps to address thisproblem in the FY 2010
budget, by providing
additional money for
THAAD interceptors, for
SM-3
Block
IA
interceptors, and for the

AEGIS BMD SM-3 FLIGHT TEST. The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile
destroyer USS Hopper, equipped with the Aegis Weapons System, is shown launchinga SM-3 while underway in the Pacific Ocean. The missile successfully intercepted ashort-range ballistic missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in
Kauai, Hawaii. This exercise marked the 19th successful intercept of 23 at-sea firings
using the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System.
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upgrading of more Navy ships to incorporate the Aegis BMD capability. The President’s Budget
request for FY 2011 will further expand these deployable capabilities.

Near-term Capabilities
Looking to the future of regional defense, DoD is developing capabilities for deployment in thenear term (out to 2015) and over the longer term. A key objective is to leverage recent successes
in regional missile defense to further expand that capability at low risk. As part of the solution,
DoD will increase the procurement of proven systems such as THAAD, the SM-3 interceptor,
and the AN/TPY-2 radar.
The second part of the solution is to further improve the technology that has already beendeveloped. At the moment, the SM-3 interceptor is launched only from sea. In the 2015 timeframe, a relocatable land-based SM-3 system, tentatively called “Aegis Ashore,” will be available
that will make possible better regional coverage by virtue of its ability to be placed inland. Theseland-based interceptors will provide persistent coverage of the areas they protect and will be an
important element of a future regional missile defense against medium- and intermediate-range
ballistic missiles.
DoD will also continue to improve the SM-3 interceptor missile defense capability. By 2015 a
more capable SM-3 missile, the Block IB, will be available. It will have an improved seeker
capability for greater on-board discrimination and greater area coverage. This interceptor will be
deployed both at sea and on land, with the “Aegis Ashore” system. The coverage area will also be
increased by developing the technology to launch an SM-3 interceptor in response to remote
Block IA

Block IB

Block IIABlock IIB

Kill Warhead (KW)
• 1-Color Seeker• Divert & Attitude
Control System(DACS)

KW• 2-Color Seeker• Improved Optics• Advanced Signal
Processor• Improved DACS

21 Nosecone
Large Diameter KW• Advanced
Discrimination
Seeker• High Divert DACS

Stage 2 & 3:
• 13.5
Propulsion

Stage 2 & 3:
• 13.5
Propulsion

Stage 2 & 3:
• 21Propulsion

Stage 2:
• 21Propulsion

Stage 1:

Stage 1:

Stage 1:• MK 72 Booster• MK 72 Booster• MK 72 Booster

Stage 1: Existing
MK 72 Booster• MK 41 Vertical
LaunchSystem (VLS)
Compatible• MK 41 VLS• MK 41 VLS

Improved KW

High Performance
Upper StageAEGIS BMD SM-3 EVOLUTION. The SM-3 is being fielded in “blocks” as technology advances, enabling improved
defense through upgrades to the interceptor.
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sensor data. Once this capability is fully developed, the interceptors—no longer constrained by
the range of the Aegis radar to detect an incoming missile—will be able to be launched sooner
and therefore fly further in order to defeat the incoming threat.
It is also important that we continue development of the Command and Control, Battle
Management, and Communications (C2BMC) Program, the overarching command and control
system that brings together information from the various sensors, provides planning capability
for missile defense operations, and makes available situational awareness for all levels of decision
making. This continued development will incorporate the architecture of current and futuresensor systems that support missile defense, the various weapons systems we currently use, andthose in development such as the THAAD missile system, the PATRIOT, SM-3 variants, and
GBIs. The continued development of C2BMC will allow for tailoring by each region’s needs,
and it will be interoperable with systems we may develop with allies and partners. For defense of
the homeland it will make possible a seamless, global picture that incorporates all aspects of the
BMD architecture.
A final capability intended for development in the 2015 time frame is an airborne infrared
sensor. The goal of this program is to be able to simultaneously detect and track many ballistic
missiles from unmanned aerial vehicles. These distributed airborne platforms will add significant
depth to regional missile defenses.
The Missile Defense Agency is now exploring another option, called “Early Intercept” (EI),
which examines the feasibility of intercepting missiles early in their flight using currently plannedinterceptors and sensors. Instead of relying on larger and faster boosters, EI is achieved by
reducing the timelines associated with early sensor tracking and rapidly developing fire-control
solutions so that today’s missiles can intercept threat missiles much earlier in their flight. EIshould provide an additional opportunity to shoot at incoming threat missiles.

Long-term Capabilities
Toward the end of the decade, more capable interceptors and sensors will become available. The
SM-3 Block IIA will have a higher burnout velocity and a more advanced seeker. These features
will make it much more capable than the SM-3 Block IA or IB and will provide greater regional
coverage.
A follow-on missile, the SM-3 Block IIB, is in the initial phase of technology assessment anddevelopment. It is expected to be even more capable than the IIA. With a higher burnout
velocity and greater divert capability, the SM-3 Block IIB will have some early-intercept
capability against a long-range missile. Matched against regional medium-range andintermediate-range ballistic missiles, the SM-3 IIB will defend a greater area than the SM-3 IIA.

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4

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Trajectory Refinement andIntercept by Launch
System Radar

Launch System Radar
Acquires Threat Missile

Space Sensor
Engagement
Zone
Surveillance
and Track by
RemoteSensors

2

Interceptor
Launched Before
Launch System Radar
Detects Threat

1

Launch System(Land- or Sea-based)

LaunchDetection by
RemoteSensor(s)Remote Sensor

LAUNCH ON REMOTE CONCEPT. This represents a future capability to sense a threat remotely, transmit tracking
information to the interceptor’s flight computer, and launch the interceptor earlier and farther downrange than the ship’s
own radar would allow.

Investments are also being made to develop an “engage on remote” technology that includes not
only launching on data from a remote sensor track but also the ability to uplink data from assets
other than the Aegis radar. This will allow the interceptor to engage the threat missile at greater
ranges.
A further long-term effort seeks to develop persistent overhead sensors to detect and track large
raid sizes of ballistic missiles over their entire trajectories from space. Such an ability would
greatly reduce the need for terrestrial sensors and the size of deployable missile defense systems.
This Precision Tracking and Space System” (PTSS) is an important funding priority in the
President’s Budget for FY 2011 and the Future Years Defense Program.

Integrating Capabilities Regionally
As we look back over recent efforts to develop these capabilities, they can reasonably be describedas “bottom up”—the United States worked aggressively with available technologies to improvethem and bring them rapidly to the field in growing numbers. Looking to the future, it is
becoming increasingly important to think “top down,” or more strategically, about the
deployment of missile defense assets in a regional context. In other words, regional approaches
must be tailored to the unique deterrence and defense requirements of each region, which varyconsiderably in their geography, in the history and character of the threat, and in the military-tomilitary relationships on which to build cooperative missile defenses. Several principles must
guide the development of our regional approaches.
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T H R E A T SFirst, the United States will strengthen regional deterrencearchitectures. Regional deterrence must be build on a solid
foundation of strong cooperative relationships andappropriate burden sharing between the United States andits allies. Our alliances must be built on productive plans
and action that enhance allied security. As such, it isimportant that allies have the opportunity to contribute
appropriately to the defense of common interests.
While missile defenses play an important role in regional
deterrence, other components will also be significant.
Against nuclear-armed states, regional deterrence will
necessarily include a nuclear component (whether forwardPATRIOT MISSILE LAUNCH.
deployed or not). But the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in PATRIOT missile defense interceptors
are capable of intercepting short- andthese regional deterrence architectures can be reduced by medium-range missiles at relatively closeincreasing the role of missile defenses and other capabilities. range in their terminal phase of flight.
More broadly, the United States seeks new ways to deal with the challenges posed by statesseeking nuclear weapons in contravention of international norms and in defiance of theinternational community.
Second, the United States will pursue a phased adaptive approach within each region that is
tailored to the threats unique to that region, including their scale, the scope and pace of theirdevelopment, and the capabilities available and most suited for deployment. This does not
require a globally integrated missile defense architecture that integrates allies into a uniform,
global structure. Instead, the United States will pursue regional structures sharing common assetsthat are relevant and robust because they are tailored to the unique requirements andopportunities within each region.
Third, because the demand for missile defense assets within each region over the next decade will
exceed supply, the United States will develop capabilities that are mobile and relocatable. Thisfeature would make possible their movement from one region to another in time of crisis. This
capacity for surge defense should help dissuade potential aggressor states in all regions fromthinking they can gain some long-term advantage.
These principles will be applied on a region-by-region basis. As previously stated, theDepartment will rely on the Global Force Management process to assist in decisions on the
allocation of missile defense forces.

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The Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe
The Administration’s approach to missile defense in Europe was announced in September 2009.
This announcement followed a unanimous recommendation to the President by the Secretary of
Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff that the 2007 plan for European missile defense be revised.
Under this new approach, in Phase 1 (2011 time frame) existing missile defense systems will be
deployed to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Phase 1 will focus on theprotection of portions of southern Europe by utilizing sea-based Aegis missile defense-capable
ships and interceptors (the SM-3 Block IA). This first phase will also include a forward-based
radar, which, by providing data earlier in the engagement, will enhance the defense of Europe
and augment homeland defense capabilities already in place in Alaska and California.
In Phase 2 (2015 time frame) our capabilities will be enhanced by the fielding of a moreadvanced interceptor (the SM-3 Block IB) and additional sensors. Phase 2 will include landbased SM-3s in southern Europe, in addition to their sea-based locations, expanding coverage toadditional NATO allies.
In Phase 3 (2018 time frame) coverage against medium- and intermediate-range threats will be
improved with a second land-based SM-3 site, located in northern Europe, as well as an
upgraded Standard Missile 3 (the SM-3 Block IIA, which is already under development) at seaand land-based sites. These changes will extend coverage to all NATO allies in Europe.
In Phase 4 (2020 time frame) an additional capability against a potential ICBM launched from
the Middle East against the United States will be available. This phase will take advantage of yet
another upgrade to the Standard Missile 3, the Block IIB. All four phases will include upgrades
to the missile defense command and control system.
The United States has been working closely with NATO allies on the relationship of theEuropean PAA to the Alliance’s missile defense plans. In addition to these NATO-wide
consultations, the Czech Republic and Poland, both close allies, continue to play an importantrole in our collective missile defense efforts. The United States values the leadership of thesenations on missile defense at NATO and welcomes their commitment to involvement in the newarchitecture. We also see opportunities for cooperation with Russia in the context of theEuropean Phased Adaptive Approach, which are discussed in greater detail in the section titled“Strengthening International Cooperation.”

Tailoring Phased Adaptive Approaches to Other Regions
Missile defenses are an integral part of U.S. military and diplomatic strategies wherever theUnited States has security commitments. In East Asia and the Middle East, the United States

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faces challenges similar to those in Europe regarding how to phase in needed capabilities in a waythat is adaptive to developments in the threat.
It is essential to note that the regions differ in the range, volume, and technical sophistication of
the existing and potential threat. This variation has important implications for how phased
adaptive approaches to missile defense are applied in each regional context. The regions also
differ in terms of the U.S. role and interests in the region: in Europe, the United States engages
as a party to a multilateral alliance; in East Asia, the United States cooperates through bilateralalliances and with key partners; in the Middle East, the United States has a number of key
partners and deployed forces. These differences have important implications for the authorities
under which the United States is able to operationally employ defenses in protection of local
partners.
The regions also differ in how they
currently cooperate in BMD with theUnited States. The United States andJapan cooperate in a way that is highlyinteroperable, and the nations areworking together to jointly develop afuture system. The United States andIsrael are involved in the coproduction of the Arrow 2 missile
defense system as well as in additional
AN/TPY-2 RADAR. This transportable X-band radar is currently
BMD research and development deployed to Japan to aid in detecting and tracking potential threats
activities. The United States is also in the Pacific region.
beginning to work with some partners of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In short, thefoundations for applying phased adaptive approaches in these regions are different, and thus so
too are the pathways forward.

The Implications of Phased Adaptive Approaches to Regional Architectures
The benefits of comprehensive, phased adaptive approaches to regional missile defense
architectures are considerable. They allow strong partnerships with regional allies and partners inmeeting emerging security challenges, as well as a responsible measure of burden sharing. They
focus resources on real, emerging threats and rely on proven solutions.
Another benefit is improved deterrence. Missile-armed challengers in the Middle East andNortheast Asia will find it more difficult to threaten and coerce their neighbors in the region andbeyond. U.S. allies and partners will remain confident in the role of the United States as security
guarantor. These results could help significantly reduce pressures at the so-called nuclear tipping
point.
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But there are also some challenges. Perhaps the most important derives from the fact that
regional demand for U.S. BMD assets is likely to exceed supply for some years to come.
Although the missile threat is developing at different rates in different regions, overall it isdeveloping rapidly. Today there are thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers incountries other than Russia, China, the United States, and NATO members; roughly 90 percentof those missiles have ranges less than 1,000 kilometers. Against this threat, the United Statescurrently has only a few hundred defensive short-range interceptors deployed in multiple regions.
U.S. combatant commanders are expressing steadily rising interest in and requirements forprotection against these threats. U.S. regional allies and partners are also expressing increasing
interest and demand.

THAAD Fire Control and Communication with Launcher in Background

Mobile THAAD Equipment

THAAD BATTERIES. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system is used for area defense of short- and mediumrange missiles in their terminal phase of flight. It is air-transportable for rapid deployment in times of crisis.

In the short term, the United States will address this mismatch between supply and demand witha comprehensive force management process that adjudicates competing requirements from thecombatant commands. This approach underscores the value of developing capabilities that are
flexible and adaptive and also relocatable, so that they can be surged into troubled regions intimes of political-military crisis.
Over the longer term, the potential solutions are more numerous. The Department of Defense
has proposed a robust procurement pathway for the years ahead to meet surging demand. It isalso seeking to increase the contributions that allies make to regional architectures and to researchand development. In addition, DoD is emphasizing the importance of strengthening regional
deterrence by multiple means and not just through reliance on missile defense (or extended
nuclear deterrence). The Department also supports efforts to increase international cooperation
to suppress the development of specific regional threats of a particularly troubling kind—such as
those posed by North Korea and Iran.

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Whatever measures are taken to address this problem, it is not necessary that the United States beable to negate every deployable missile in an enemy’s arsenal. Our forces must be able to protect
what we and our partners value. These include the political and economic targets, including
population centers, that an enemy may want to put at risk, as well as military capabilities essential
for prevailing in a conflict. The ability to protect these assets helps reinforce deterrence andgreatly magnifies the challenges for a leader contemplating aggression against some U.S. interest.

Hedging Against Future Regional Uncertainties
As with the defense of the homeland, it is important to hedge against future uncertainties in theregional threat. In particular, the United States will hedge against the possibility of more rapid
than projected quantitative and qualitative developments in the existing threat, and against thepossibility of new missile threats developing in an unexpected location.
The phased adaptive approach provides an inherent hedge against these uncertainties bydeploying missile defenses that are both relocatable and scalable. Relocatable assets can be surged
to a region in times of crisis, providing increased capability against a larger threat raid size. Thisfeature will also allow missile defenses to be brought to bear in new regions relatively swiftly.
Scalable assets can be integrated into existing regional architectures. Furthermore, the same
multiple pathways for ballistic missile sensor development that provide a hedge for homeland
defense will also provide a hedge for regional missile defense, but for a different reason. Morecapable threat sensors will improve our ability to counter larger threat raid sizes.
Meeting the regional ballistic missile threat requires increased missile defense inventories. To
that end, the Department intends to increase both inventory and production capacity of
THAAD and SM-3 interceptors. To further add to the system’s flexibility, DoD will also
convert more ships to the Aegis weapons system to provide more sea-based ballistic missile
defense capabilities. The mobility of these systems provides a critical hedge against potential
expansion of the ballistic missile threats in a given region.

Regional Architectures and Defense of the Homeland
These regional architectures are not meant to substitute for the defense of the homeland.
However, over time they can become effective means to that end if threats to the homeland
appear in specific regions as states develop and deploy intercontinental-range capabilities.
In the European Phased Adaptive Approach, for example, Phase 4 explicitly envisages additional
capabilities that can be added to the European architecture to improve on the current defense of
the homeland. Specifically, advanced technology assessments and development are under way on
the SM-3 Block IIB with an expected deployment less than a decade from now. This morecapable interceptor will be deployed to Europe in order to augment existing homeland protection
against ICBM threats from the Middle East. The sensor architecture can also be supplemented
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over time in ways that promise much-improved performance against systems in the Middle East
aimed at the United States. In other regions, phased adaptive approaches can be applied withsimilar longer-term objectives.

In Summary
To implement this new focus on regional architectures, the Administration will pursue thefollowing initiatives:


Deploy the European Phased Adaptive Approach, which accelerates the deployment ofproven technologies and also promises improved long-term protection of the homeland.



Apply phased adaptive approaches in other regions by building on current efforts, with aprincipal focus on East Asia and the Middle East.

Furthermore, the development of these regional architectures will be guided by three principles:
1. The United States will work with allies and partners to strengthen regional deterrencearchitectures, that must be built on the foundation of strong cooperative relationships andappropriate burden sharing.
2. The United States will pursue a phased adaptive approach within each region that is
tailored to the threats and circumstances unique to that region.
3. Because the potential global demand for missile defense assets over the next decade may
exceed supply, the United States will develop capabilities that are mobile and relocatable.

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Case Study: The Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe
Key Elements of the September 2009 Decision
The 2007 plan called for a “third site” in Europe. First proposed early in the decade, it was intended tosupplement the national protection of the United States at the two existing sites in Alaska and California. By
locating a site for supplemental protection in Europe, the plan offered improved protection against ICBM
threats emanating from the Middle East while also providing some protection of Europe against mediumand intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It was a sound technical solution based on the technology available
at the time. Poland agreed to host the field of interceptors and the Czech Republic offered to host a radarneeded for target discrimination over Europe (the European Midcourse Radar, or EMR). In addition, thedecision involved a commitment to deploy closer to Iran an AN/TPY-2 radar useful for early target
identification.
Against the backdrop of the new strategy and policy framework described earlier, two key factors led to thedecision to revise this plan and apply a new approach in Europe. First, since the 2007 plan was initiallyconsidered, U.S. investments in missile defense technology have created new technical opportunities. The
Standard Missile 3 Block IA has entered into service with the U.S. Navy and has a demonstrated track recordof success in its test program. The development of improved versions has begun, including Blocks IB and
IIA, which will be deployable both at sea and on land. In addition, advanced technology development for aneven more capable land-based variant, the SM-3 Block IIB, will begin in 2011.
There have been similarly important advances in sensor technology, producing a variety of options to detect,classify, and track enemy missiles and to guide the interceptor in flight. The result is that an alternative
emerged to the GBI-based architecture, one that had to be assessed on its relative merits and on its quality ofprotection, timelines to initial operational capability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness, among other features.
Second, while Iran and other regional actors have not yet acquired or deployed ICBMs, the threat fromshorter-range missiles has developed very quickly. For example, Iran already has hundreds of ballistic missilesthat threaten its neighbors, and it is actively developing and testing ballistic missiles that can reach beyond its
neighbors and further into Europe. This capability poses a clear and present danger to U.S. deployed forces,
allies, and partners.
Iran also continues to work on longer-range ballistic missiles, space-launch vehicles, and other technologies
that could contribute to an ICBM capability. Moreover, it has an ongoing program of missile cooperation
with North Korea. These factors suggest that a future transfer of technologies or entire systems may bepossible when and if North Korea’s ICBM program reaches a point of technical maturity. These concerns
about Iran’s missile capabilities are magnified by Iran’s determination to continue its nuclear program in
long-standing defiance of its international obligations. So far, Iran has not taken adequate steps to increaseinternational confidence in its claims of an exclusively peaceful nuclear program. Likewise, its development oflong-range and robust missile capabilities does not increase confidence in the alleged peaceful intent of its
nuclear program.
The continued development and improvements of the GBI capability increase our confidence that 30
deployed GBIs are sufficient to defend the United States against an ICBM threat from Iran and North Korea
for several years. However, the existing and growing threat in Europe to deployed forces, allies, and partners
needs to be matched by the deployment of missile defense capabilities able to counter short- and mediumrange ballistic missiles as well as longer-range threats in the future.
The previous plan was thus replaced by the European Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) to missile defense.
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Case Study: The Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe (continued)
Benefits of the Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe
There are many benefits to the European PAA. First, the PAA more directly addresses the threat in Europe.
As Iran continues to develop its short- and medium-range ballistic missile capabilities, protection for U.S.
forces, allies, and partners is provided much sooner under the PAA than the previous plan. In Phase 1,
protection is planned to be available as early as 2011, whereas under the previous plan the GBI site in Europe
would not have been operational until approximately 2017. Not only does the PAA provide protection years
earlier, but it also brings it to those parts of Europe and those deployed forces that are most vulnerable toexisting and near-term threats.
Second, the PAA utilizes existing and proven capabilities to meet current threats, and then will improve thosecapabilities over time by integrating new technology after operationally realistic testing. This approachprovides flexibility to upgrade and adjust the architecture and to do so in a cost-effective manner as the threat
evolves and our capabilities develop. Furthermore, the PAA’s use of distributed, mobile, and relocatablesystems also increases the system’s survivability by making the assets more difficult for an adversary to target.
In addition to upholding our NATO Article 5 commitments to U.S. allies in Europe, the European PAA will
also be able to improve on the protection of the U.S. homeland against ICBMs currently provided by the
GBIs located on U.S. soil. In the short term, the PAA does this by adding the forward-based radar insouthern Europe, which will provide data to augment missile defense coverage of the United States andEurope. Over time, as the four phases progress, defense of the U.S. homeland will be augmented by Europebased SM-3 Block IIB interceptors, which are planned to be able to provide an early-intercept capability
against potential Iranian ICBMs. Moreover, if the threat grows quantitatively, the PAA will be able to growas well, adding additional interceptors without having to construct heavy infrastructure such as silos, and atmuch lower cost per interceptor than with GBIs.
The European PAA also offers increased opportunities for allied participation and burden sharing. Allies haveunanimously welcomed the PAA and are studying architectures for a potential NATO missile defense system.
The United States is committed to making the PAA its national contribution to a NATO missile defense
effort, and seeks an Alliance decision to pursue a NATO-wide effort for missile defense of allied populations
and territory. To share the burden, we support NATO’s development of a command and control system for
territorial missile defense. Individual NATO allies will also be able to contribute by providing missile defense
assets, by hosting European PAA assets on their territory, or both.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportSTRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL
COOPERATION
Another key objective in the Administration’s strategy and policy framework is to lead expanded
international efforts and cooperation on missile defense. The United States is committed toworking intensively with allies and partners in two categories: (1) developing and fielding robust,
pragmatic, and cost-effective capabilities, and (2) engaging in international cooperation on abroad range of missile defense–related activities, including technological and industrial
cooperation. As part of this effort, DoD will also work to expand cooperation with Russia on
missile defense, counterproliferation, and related issues.
The United States seeks to create an environment in which the development, acquisition,
deployment, and use of ballistic missiles by regional adversaries can be deterred, principally by
eliminating their confidence in the effectiveness of such attacks. This approach will reinforce
elements of the broader national security strategy that emphasize practical solutions to emerging
challenges, solutions that involve all elements of national power. In addition, by working withallies and partners to promote effective missile defense capabilities, the United States builds closer
defense cooperation ties as it accomplishes its direct purpose of making U.S. partners lessvulnerable to coercion and ballistic missile attack.
The Department is also participating in a broad-based interagency review of the current U.S.
export control system. The current system, founded during the Cold War and rooted in theconcept of a bipolar world, was designed to control technologies and manufacture of U.S. origin.
The global economy has changed. Technologies and processes once deemed critical are now
widely available and in many cases no longer controlled by the United States. The Department
will seek to understand how best to develop key missile defense technologies while also
controlling them via multilateral arrangements so that we and our allies can maximize thebenefits for our own security as we prevent their acquisition by those who would use them inways contrary to our interests.

EuropeIn Europe, the Administration is committed to implementing the new European Phased
Adaptive Approach within a NATO context. In December 2009, NATO foreign ministers
welcomed the European PAA and declared that it reinforces NATO’s central role in missile
defense in Europe. The United States sees the European PAA as part of our extended deterrent
and a visible demonstration of our Article 5 commitment to Europe. In practical terms, thismeans that the European PAA would be the U.S. national contribution to a NATO missile

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defense capability. Toward this end, the United States is working within Alliance structures todefine an agreed implementation plan. First, the United States supports a potential NATOdecision to adopt the role of missile defense of allied territory and populations. Second, we
support NATO’s efforts to build and strengthen the Alliance’s program for an integrated
command and control system for missile defenses (Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile
Defense,or
ALTBMD).
ALTBMD is currently designed
to link allies’ assets together for
missile defense of deployed
forces, but it could be expanded
to coordinate allied assets forthe defense of populations andterritory. As NATO takes theseimportant steps, the UnitedStates will be able to contributethe European PAA to the
A MEETING OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL (NAC).
(Photo courtesy of NATO)
Alliance’s developing missile
defense capability.
The Administration is also working directly with specific partners to develop and deploy neededcapabilities for the defense of Europe. Poland and the Czech Republic, which were to play animportant role in the previous plan, continue to play a role in implementing the European PAA.
Other allies already own or are working with the United States to acquire specific capabilities,
such as naval vessels equipped with the Aegis defensive system, that could be adapted to include a
missile defense capability. These systems could be linked with the PAA to create a networked
defense. A primary U.S. emphasis is on ensuring appropriate burden sharing. The
Administration recognizes that allies do not view the specifics of the missile threat in the sameway, and do not have equal resources to apply to this problem, but there is general recognition ofa growing threat and the need to take steps now to address both existing threats and emerging
ones.

East Asia
In East Asia, the United States has a range of cooperative relationships. Japan is one of our mostsignificant international BMD partners. The United States and Japan have made considerable
strides in BMD cooperation and interoperability in support of bilateral missile defense
operations. Japan has acquired a layered integrated missile defense system that includes Aegis
BMD ships with Standard Missile 3 interceptors, Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) fireunits, early warning radars, and a command and control system. The United States and Japan

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regularly train together, and our forces havesuccessfully executed cooperative BMD
operations. One of our most significant
cooperative efforts is the co-development of anext-generation SM-3 interceptor, called theBlock IIA. This co-development program
represents not only an area of significant
technical cooperation but also the basis forenhanced
operational
cooperation
tostrengthen regional security. The U.S.-Japan
partnership is an outstanding example of thekind of cooperation the United States seeks inorder to tailor a phased adaptive approach tothe unique threats and capabilities in a region.

C O O P E R A T I O NGUIDED MISSILE DESTROYER. In Nov. 2009 The
guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54)
transits through the Pacific Ocean with Mount Fuji in the
background.

The Republic of Korea (ROK) is also an important U.S. BMD partner. The ROK has indicatedinterest in acquiring a missile defense capability that includes land- and sea-based systems, early
warning radars, and a command and control system. The United States and ROK are working todefine possible future BMD requirements. As these requirements are determined, the UnitedStates stands ready to work with the ROK to strengthen its protection against the North Korean
missile threat. The United States looks forward to taking further steps to enhance operational
coordination and build upon ongoing missile defense cooperation.
The United States continues to consult bilaterally with Australia regarding U.S. BMD
capabilities and plans in order to share information that would help Australia with decisions
regarding BMD should the need for it be seen in the future.
The United States is also engaged in multilateral discussions on BMD capability developmentwith several partners in the East Asia region. As we enter into bilateral discussions of missile
defense in East Asia, an additional goal is to share BMD information among countries on amultilateral basis in order to help each country improve its own capabilities.

The Middle East
The United States is also cooperating with security partners in the Middle East to strengthen
missile defense in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf.
The United States and Israel coordinate extensively on missile defense issues. The two have along history of cooperative research and development, which has borne fruit in the deployment
of Israel’s Arrow missile defense system. Through various exercises, the United States and Israel
have established a capability to cooperate operationally.

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In the Persian Gulf, the United States has a continuous
missile defense presence and seeks to build on the Bilateral
Air Defense Initiative to strengthen cooperation. A numberof states in the region are exploring purchases of somemissile defense capability under the auspices of the foreign
military sales (FMS) program.

RussiaThe Administration has given a special emphasis torenewing cooperation with Russia on missile defense. U.S.
officials have discussed with Russia’s leaders our view that
U.S. missile defenses are a needed response to an emerging
challenge to international peace and stability.

ARROW 2 LAUNCH. The United States
is working with Israel to develop the Arrow
2 ballistic missile defense system against
regional threats.

One of the benefits of the European Phased Adaptive
Approach is that it allows for a Russian contribution ifpolitical circumstances make that possible. For example, Russian radars could contribute useful
and welcome tracking data, although the functioning of the U.S. system will not be dependent
on that data.
The Administration is committed to substantive and sustained dialogue with the leadership ofRussia on U.S. missile defenses and their roles in different regions. For example, the UnitedStates and Russia have initiated a joint assessment of the ballistic missile threat, as agreed to by
Presidents Obama and Medvedev at the July 2009 Moscow Summit. Our goals are to enlist
Russia in a new structure of deterrence that addresses the emerging challenges to international
peace and security posed by a small number of states seeking illicit capabilities. Moreover, theAdministration seeks to develop a mutual understanding of a new approach to strategic stability
that integrates both defensive and offensive capabilities in the hope that this will enable the twonations to commit to even deeper reductions in their nuclear arsenals. As it pursues this goal, theAdministration will continue to reject any negotiated restraints on U.S. ballistic missile defenses.

China
Engaging China in discussions of U.S. missile defense plans is also an important part of ourinternational efforts. China is one of the countries most vocal about U.S. ballistic missile defenses
and their strategic implications, and its leaders have expressed concern that such defenses might
negate China’s strategic deterrent. The United States will continue to discuss these matters with
China. Maintaining strategic stability in the U.S.-China relationship is as important to the
Administration as maintaining strategic stability with other major powers. At the same time, it isimportant that China understand that the United States will work to ensure protection of our

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forces, allies, and partners in East Asia against all regional ballistic missile threats. Consequently,
the Administration is committed to substantive and sustained dialogue with China, with thegoals of enhancing confidence, improving transparency, and reducing mistrust on strategic
security issues.

In Summary
To implement its commitment to strengthen international cooperation, the Administration willtake a number of steps (some of which have been elaborated in the previous section on regionalarchitectures). It will:
1. Pursue the European Phased Adaptive Approach in a NATO context and support
enhanced multilateral cooperation together with intensified bilateral cooperation withpartners seeking to deploy capabilities. This effort should include building on the
ALTBMD foundation.
2. Work with allies in East Asia to advance cooperative agendas to develop and deploy
capabilities and adapt regional deterrence architectures to emerging requirements.
3. Work with security partners in the Middle East and elsewhere on similarly tailoredagendas of cooperative action.
4. Conduct a substantive and sustained dialogue with Russia on all dimensions of the missile
defense issue. However, the United States will not negotiate restraints on U.S. BMD
capabilities.
5. Conduct a substantive and sustained dialogue with China to deepen mutual
understanding of the challenges of strategic stability.

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Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportMANAGING THE MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM
The strategy and policy framework reflects the commitment of this Administration to deploy
capabilities that have been proven under rigorous testing and are affordable over the long term.
These commitments are part of a broader effort to align management of the missile defense
program with the current strategy and policy framework and with national and international
requirements. Toward that end, this review has considered the following specific questions.
1. What more can or should be done now to strengthen the testing program?
2. Can missile defense be made more cost-effective?
3. Is internal DoD oversight of the program adequate?
4. Is external transparency adequate?
The legislative mandate for this review specified a longer list of questions. Those questions havebeen fully explored as a part of this review, and the answers have been gathered under these four
overarching questions for the sake of clarity.
In answering these questions, this review built on a comprehensive evolution of management
practices associated with the missile defense program that has been overseen by Secretary Gates
over the past three years.
In March 2007, the Missile Defense Executive Board (MDEB) was established, bringing
together senior DoD executives (and also representatives of the Department of State andNational Security Staff) to review and provide guidance for missile defense.



In September 2008, the Deputy Secretary of Defense issued innovative guidance to allow
the Military Departments, the Joint Staff, the combatant commands, and otherdirectorates within the Office of the Secretary of Defense to participate in and influence
the development of the Missile Defense Agency’s annual program plan and budget
submittal.



Further, the Deputy’s guidance provided guidelines for responsibilities and authorities forresource execution as the developing elements of the Ballistic Missile Defense System(BMDS) reach maturity and are transitioned to the Military Departments for operationand support. The guidance, termed the BMDS Life Cycle Management Process, was used
to develop the Missile Defense Agency’s inputs to the President’s Budget for FY 2011.

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In June 2009 the Missile Defense Agency adopted a new approach to test planning that
integrates recommendations made by DoD’s Director of Operational Test and Evaluation(DOT&E), among others.

These steps have been studied in this review in the context of the new strategy and policy
framework and broader initiatives by the Administration to promote improved planning andeffective acquisition reform, with the following results.

Strengthening the Testing Program
The 2002 decision to proceed with the simultaneous development and deployment of groundbased interceptors was a high-risk acquisition strategy intended to quickly field ballistic missile
defenses before testing was complete. President Obama’s commitment to deploying proventechnologies reinforces the urgency of adopting a new approach to the testing of missile defense
capabilities in development.
In June 2009, the Missile Defense Agency announced a new approach to testing, embodied in an
Integrated Master Test Plan. Consistent with recommendations of the DOT&E, the new
approach addresses the testing of each system through its entire development, replacing anapproach that looked only two years into the future. The intent is to update the plan
semiannually to accommodate test results, emerging threats, or a new strategic direction such as
the Phased Adaptive Approach. Given the complexity and global scale of the BMD system and of
overall missile defense operations, assessments of system effectiveness must leverage the results of
independently accredited models and simulations to supplement flight tests. The plan outlines a
combination of ground and flight tests aimed specifically at acquiring test data to validate those

THE BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM. The U.S. BMDS is composed of integrated land-, sea-, air- andspace-based sensors and “shooters” capable of intercepting a range of ballistic missile threats in various stages of flight.
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models and simulations. Specific tests are also designed to demonstrate key performance elementsthat cannot be effectively modeled. For the first time, the plan incorporates a series of dedicated,
operational test events. The combination of models, simulations, and actual flight test data canthen be used in evaluating operational effectiveness.
Congress has expressed a particular interest in the metrics by which reliability is evaluated. In
addition to tracking each system’s operational availability, the plan incorporates assessment
objectives that address system- and component-level reliability and maintainability. These data
are collected during day-to-day operations of the deployed elements, as well as during dedicatedexercises and flight test events. Other key assessment criteria include the systems’ logistics
supportability, the quality and maturity of their software, and their use of computer resources.
The results of these assessments form the basis for an evaluation of operational suitability.
In DoD’s view, this procedure is a major step forward and addresses concerns raised with theprior test construct. The DOT&E has been actively engaged in overseeing the development of
this new approach and has concurred with its implementation. While there will undoubtedly be
refinements to this new testing construct, the Department needs to gain experience with its
implementation before assessing the need for adjustments. DoD expects to work with Congressover the coming year to conduct that assessment.

Cost-EffectivenessHow can missile defenses be made more cost-effective? Answering this question requires adefinition of the metrics by which a weapon system is determined to be cost-effective. This
review has focused on the following metrics.
One metric of cost-effectiveness is cost in comparison with other available options. In principle,
less expensive interceptors that provide the same capability should be favored over more
expensive ones. For example, a future variant of the SM-3 could provide a complement to theexisting GBIs. The current cost of a GBI is approximately six times the cost of the SM-3 today.
A second metric of cost-effectiveness is affordability. Is the BMD system, as currently being
developed, affordable from the larger perspective of the Department’s and the nation’s competing
priorities? It should be noted that since 2001, the average funding for missile defense has
accounted for about 2 percent of the Department’s top line.
A third metric of cost-effectiveness is the relationship between incurred costs and costs avoided.
Strong and effective missile defenses are intended to have a deterrent effect by making clear topotential proliferators the impossibility of gaining an advantage in threatening to employ or
employing ballistic missiles. Strong and effective defenses thus may help mitigate the emergenceof future threats, whether from additional countries or of a more advanced kind from among the39
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ranks of countries now of concern. Such a dampening effect could reduce other types of costs for
the United States and its allies in meeting those future threats. Investment in stronger missile
defenses with the aim of strengthening deterrence must also be considered in the context ofbroader investments with the same aim, including larger deployments of conventional militaryforces, advanced forms of strategic strike, and even nuclear forces.
The actual life-cycle cost of the missile defense system is difficult to determine, because there isno final configuration for the system. It is clear that an effort to match one-for-one the potential
deployments of short-range missiles within the regions would be prohibitively expensive.
Accordingly, the United States must pursue a comprehensive approach to risk management. This
must include a robust international norm against missile proliferation and technology transfer,effective action by members of the Missile Technology Control Regime, and diplomacy
concentrated on particular countries of concern. Such an approach also supports the
Administration’s decision to focus on developing and deploying mobile systems, which enable us
to bring more missile defenses to bear on the most immediate threat.
Adopting a cost-effective approach to BMD development occasionally involves taking decisive
action on programs that do not meet cost, schedule, or performance goals. Accordingly, theSecretary announced his intention in the FY 2010 President’s Budget request to seek thetermination of two troubled programs and the restructuring of a third.
The Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) program was one such troubled program. The MKV wasintended to be deployed on midcourse interceptors, like the ground-based interceptor, so that
one interceptor could address complex countermeasures by identifying and destroying all lethal
objects in a threat cluster. However, the MKV technology was not maturing at a reasonable rate.
Since continuing to develop those technologies required to demonstrate MKV effectivenesswould have been time-consuming and costly, the Department chose to terminate the MKV
program and invest in other approaches.
The Defense Department also terminated the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) program. The
KEI mission was designed to counter advanced ballistic missile threats by intercepting missiles inthe boost phase of flight. KEI was neither affordable nor proven, could not be integrated into
existing weapons platforms or systems, and did not conform to the strategy of focusing on
emerging regional missile threats. As a result, it grew in cost from $4.6 billion to $8.9 billion,
the development schedule continued to slip, and the average-unit production cost grew from $25
million to more than $50 million per interceptor. In addition, the KEI’s size meant that any
existing operational platform would need significant modifications to host it.
Finally, the Airborne Laser (ABL) program was identified for restructuring because it had
experienced repeated schedule delays and technical problems since its inception in 1996, and40
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because its operating concept was not adequately defined. Plans for a second ABL aircraft werecanceled, and the existing ABL aircraft—a highly modified 747 transport—was retained but
shifted to a technology demonstration program. The Department is examining the implicationsof retaining the current ABL aircraft as a high-energy laser research test bed.
Cost control is an important aspect of cost-effectiveness. MDA is subject to existing DoD-wide
programming and budgeting oversight processes, and MDA programs are reviewed and compete
equally in the annual Program Planning Budgeting and Execution (PPBE) process. This practiceis reflected in the September 2008 decision to adopt the Ballistic Missile Defense Life Cycle
Management Process. This topic is taken up in further detail in the following section on
oversight, but the main point is clear: in the view of DoD, the Life Cycle Management Process isfunctioning well to identify requirements, allocate resources, and provide departmental insight tocontrol costs, and it should be maintained.

Internal DoD Oversight
Congress has posed multiple questions regarding oversightof the missile defense program that reflect different
concerns about the acquisition and requirements processes,
among others. Some historical context is useful for
defining the issues.
Reacting to heightened concern about missile
proliferation, in 2002 then-Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld redefined some of the roles of the newly
renamed Missile Defense Agency and streamlined its
oversight and reporting processes. MDA was exemptedfrom DoD’s standard acquisitions rules and requirements
generation process. This decision reflected the then broadconsensus within DoD’s leadership that the rapid
development of capability was an urgent priority and,further, that there was need for a centralized approach tothe management and oversight of the missile defense
program in the context of special authorities. It establishes
business rules, and it facilitates the transition ofdevelopmental capabilities to operational status.

THE INTEGRATED MASTER TEST
PLAN. IMTP is a key planning document
for the Missile Defense Agency’s test
program, which provides critical data todemonstrate the performance of ballistic
missile defenses. Ground and flight tests
demonstrate and assess system capabilities
and provide data for advanced modelingand simulation activities that measure andpredict the performance of all missile
defense technologies.

This approach, while successful in developing deployable capabilities, also generated somechallenges. The Military Departments were generally not closely involved in determining
requirements or in the development process. As BMDS elements approached technical maturity,

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this lack of engagement worked against orderly transition of capabilities from MDA to theServices, blurring responsibilities for operation and support and for budget formulation andexecution.
As noted above, an initial step was taken to address these and some related oversight challenges inMarch 2007 with the creation of the Missile Defense Executive Board. The MDEB is chaired by
the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics [AT&L]), and its
membership includes representatives from USD (Policy); USD (Intelligence); Cost Assessment
and Program Evaluation; the Joint Staff; the Department of State; the Military Departments;
U.S. Strategic Command; DOT&E; the Director, Defense Research and Engineering; andMDA. Advisers now include USD (Comptroller); Commander, U.S. Northern Command; andthe National Security Staff. The board provides oversight and guidance in a collaborative mode.
The board’s work on requirements is supplemented by the work of the Warfighter Involvement
Process, which is chaired by USSTRATCOM. One of the tasks of this group is to assess force
structure and inventory requirements. The MDEB is supported by four committees: Program,
Acquisition, and Budget Development; Policy; Test and Evaluation; and Operational Forces.
Together, they provide the opportunity for the Department to review a broad spectrum ofprogram topics in detail.
The MDEB also oversees the BMDS Lifecycle Management Process described in the preceding
section and recommends to the Department’s leadership a strategic program plan and associatedfunding strategy. The process manages missile defense as a comprehensive portfolio, following a
recommendation of the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review. This approach helps ensure a properbalance among different funding demands. It clarifies the roles of stakeholders in determining the
program plan and budget. It establishes business rules. And it facilitates the transition ofdevelopmental capabilities to operational status.
Within DoD, the MDA budget now moves through the following steps. First, initial direction
for the development of the missile defense program plan and budget is provided by the
Department’s leadership through the National Defense Strategy, Guidance for the Developmentof the Force, and departmental fiscal guidance. Warfighter and Military Departments then leadthe development of required capabilities as well as requests for specific operational elements andamounts for operational support. MDA—with USD(AT&L), USD (Comptroller),
USSTRATCOM, and the Military Departments—then develops a draft program plan and abudget. The program plan and budget are next presented to the MDEB for review, endorsement,
and forwarding to the Deputy Secretary for final approval. Last, MDA’s program and budget are
tracked through multiple reviews by the MDEB for compliance during the execution year.
This review of this oversight process has come to the following main conclusions.

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First, the approach adopted in 2007 has effectively addressed the concerns then evident about
Service involvement and capability transition. The Services are now involved in the process ofsetting requirements for capabilities and support, monitoring the development of capabilities,
and working through their components with the combatant commands to flow capability into
the force. Indeed, all of the stakeholders in future BMD capabilities are closely engaged in theoversight of the developmental process. Since March 2007, the MDEB has engaged with and has
directed or endorsed a number of Military Department–specific topics, including Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense Transition Readiness, Joint Capability Mix Study recommendations foracquiring additional THAAD and standard missiles, formulation and execution of the BMDS
Life Cycle Management Process, and Lead Military Department decisions for the original BMDS
elements. Frequent MDEB meetings and the variety of topics presented for review anddeliberation have resulted in departmental decisions on planning, development, and transition
from element development to Military Department operation. The MDEB is well positioned tooversee and direct the efforts to execute the Administration’s direction on the new capabilities tobe established by the development of the European Phased Adaptive Approach.
Second, there would be no benefit in bringing MDA into JCIDS or the full DoD 5000
acquisition reporting processes at this time. The current approach functions well to define
requirements and acquire needed capabilities in a timely fashion. The MDEB is convened aminimum of six times each year, allowing senior Department leadership almost continuous
insight and involvement in Missile Defense Agency issues, decisions, and planning. The fourcommittees supporting the MDEB also meet numerous times each year and provide further
opportunities for the Department to examine and discuss Missile Defense issues and plans indetail.
Over the past two and a half years, the MDEB has reviewed and made decisions on requirements
and acquisitions in areas including budget preparation and execution reviews; Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty target alternatives; air-launched target options; missions, roles, and structuresof the Missile Defense Agency; Missile Defense Policy Guidance; and Warfighter Prioritized
Capability List input to system requirements.
Third, there is benefit in continued innovation in managing the missile defense program. A
further, supplemental step can be taken to improve the integration of Service and MDA programand systems engineering. The Department has determined that it would be useful to transition to
MDA/Service program offices to ensure that missile defense systems are not only developed
through MDA’s highly integrated systems engineering process but also meet the doctrine,organizational, training, leadership, personnel, and facility needs of the Services. These “hybrid”
program offices are intended to develop missile defense systems that are fully interoperable andthus leverage all the capabilities of the “network-centric” ballistic missile defense system, while

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being operationally effective, suitable, and survivable within each Service’s force structure. The
initial hybrid program office for the Sea-Based X-band radar (SBX) was established in 2008. The
THAAD and AN/TPY-2 hybrid program offices are due to become a reality in 2010. Other
hybrid program offices are in the planning stages.
An additional measure of Department oversight is represented by the planned MDEB reviews of
the BMDS elements. For example, USD(AT&L) chaired an MDEB in November 2008 to
conduct a comprehensive review of the THAAD program’s progress and readiness for warfighter
operation, with the intent to assess the program’s progress before awarding a THAAD hardware
contract. The review successfully provided detailed information needed for the MDEB toendorse THAAD acquisition plans. Such element reviews will be undertaken whenever theMissile Defense Agency prepares to add to the missile defense inventory. Plans are in place forthe next review, involving the AEGIS BMD program element. These reviews enable detailed
departmental oversight and provide the flexibility for adjustments to a system composed ofmultiple systems.

External Transparency
The special responsibilities granted to MDA in
2002 left concerns about congressional oversightand the adequacy of the external transparency
provided by the Department on its missile defense
programs, priorities, and commitments. This
report is intended in part to signal thecommitment of the Administration to fulltransparency and to informed national andinternational discussion and debate on these topics.
It reflects the ongoing high-level engagement of
Department leadership in communicating with
Congress about the missile defense program.

THAAD FLIGHT TEST. White Sands, NM.
Successful test of the Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense system at the White Sands Missile Range.
The launch was an integrated flight test of THAAD
components, including the launcher, radar, fire
control and communications and interceptor.

One illustration of this engagement is the unusual
intensity of the Department’s reporting to Congresson this particular topic. MDA, the Military
Departments, and the Office of the Secretary of
Defense are engaged in a sustained effort to keep members of Congress, the relevant committees,
and interested staff informed about policies and priorities. In the budget process, this begins withdetailed reports on program content typical of all major acquisition programs. (As these budgets
shift from mostly research, development, test, and evaluation to a mix of RDT&E andprocurement, military construction, and operations and maintenance, external transparency will

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be further enhanced.) But there is much more. MDA produces numerous reports on areas ofparticular interest to Congress, usually between six and ten per year. MDA and DoD have also
supported congressionally commissioned studies carried out by the Government Accountability
Office—more than 20 in-depth studies since 2002. Congress has also commissioned
independent studies of the agency and of emerging capabilities, and the Department has helped
facilitate these as well.
From the Department’s perspective, this is a very high degree of transparency and meets theneeds of legislative oversight. DoD welcomes sustained and substantive executive-legislative
discussion of the nation’s missile defense agenda.

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46
Ballistic Missile Defense Review ReportCONCLUSION
Under the direction of the President and in accordance with congressional legislation, theDepartment has conducted a comprehensive review of U.S. missile defense policies, strategies,
plans and programs.
The Ballistic Missile Defense Review has taken a broad view. It has surveyed the spectrum of
threat capabilities and possible intent. It has assessed the current state and potential growth of
U.S. BMD technical capabilities. It has considered opportunities for cooperation with allies andpartners in missile defense. It has considered the underlying technical, organizational, andprogrammatic structure of U.S. missile defense. The result is a refocused policy and acomprehensive strategy to improve our missile defenses.
The key policy priorities set out earlier are toDefend the United States homeland against the threat of limited ballistic missile attack;Defend against existing regional missile threats to U.S. forces while protecting our allies
and partners and enabling them to defend themselves;

Test our developing capabilities to ensure that they can reliably and effectively help U.S.
forces accomplish their mission;Develop and field BMD capability that is fiscally sustainable over the long term;Base BMD planning on reasonable judgments about current and prospective threats to theUnited States and its allies and ensure that capabilities are adaptable; and

Seek to lead expanded international efforts for missile defense with allies and partners thatwill provide pragmatic, cost-effective capability.

The review determined that the United States possesses sufficient capability to defend thehomeland against a ballistic missile attack from states such as North Korea or Iran for theforeseeable future. Moreover, it identified steps that will strengthen homeland defense in theyears ahead. The advent of new sensor capabilities and the development of a comprehensive
integrated plan for testing and evaluation will better enable us to understand, employ, andfurther improve BMD capabilities.
One of the most significant changes resulting from the review has been the decision to pursue
regional phased adaptive approaches that are tailored to the threats facing each region, thecapabilities available, and the technologies best suited for deployment. These phased adaptive

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approaches comprise many components and are not limited to European defense, though to datethe European Phased Adaptive Approach has received the most attention.
Phased adaptive approaches will enable a flexible, scalable response to BMD threats around theworld by incorporating new technologies quickly and cost-effectively and by maintaining a focus
on current threat assessments. These approaches will provide warfighters with the BMD
capabilities required now, while also maintaining the flexibility necessary to respond to new
threats as they materialize. In addition, such approaches will provide a number of additional
opportunities to create interoperable and shared missile defenses with BMD allies and partners.
The combined effort will be a substantial improvement in regional deterrence and defense
architectures.
The review has also conducted a thorough assessment of the organizational and programmatic
structure for the development, fielding, operation, and maintenance of BMD capability. The
current structure, as recently revised, appears to be working well. With each budget cycle theprocess will be improved. The report addresses some actions and identifies areas for further study
regarding specific smaller aspects of the process. Departmental efforts subsequent to the review
are already beginning or will be initiated in the near term. These include comprehensive planningfor the management of missile defense forces and elements on both a global and regional basis
across the combatant commanders’ areas of responsibility, as well as the alignment of emerging
capabilities and systems with individual Services for training, manning, deployment, andsustainment. These actions will be enacted in consultation with Congress and officials within theexecutive branch. We look forward to making progress on those areas as soon as possible.
Throughout the review the efforts of all the participants within DoD and across the interagency
have been focused on the interaction of the many different factors—strategy, tactics, technology,
force capability, fiscal requirements, and international engagement—that are essential toproviding effective ballistic missile defense. This review, by enabling us to consider all of thesechallenges and opportunities in a comprehensive manner, will result in an enhanced defense of
the United States and its forces, allies, and partners from the danger of ballistic missiles wherever
and whenever they threaten us.

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