Wise Adaptation to Climate Change- Report by the Committee on Climate Change Impacts
and Adaptation Research -Part I: Wise Adaptation to Climate Change(General Statement and Summary of Chapters)

Table of Contents

Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4

Committee Members and Working Group Members ................................................. 6

Conclusions of the Review ........................................................................................... 11

Background and Objectives of the Review ................................................................ 15

1. Impacts ...................................................................................................................... 17
1.1 Food ................................................................................................................ 18
1.2 Water Environment and Water Resources ................................................. 21
1.3 Natural Ecosystems ....................................................................................... 25
1.4 Disaster Prevention and Large Coastal Cities ............................................ 29
1.5 Health ............................................................................................................. 32
1.6 Citizen’s Life and Urban Life ...................................................................... 35
1.7 Developing Countries ................................................................................... 39
1.8 Other Impacts ................................................................................................ 41

2. Adaptation ................................................................................................................. 42
2.1 What is “Adaptation”? ................................................................................. 42
2.2 What is “Wise Adaptation”? ........................................................................ 43
2.3 Barriers to Adaptation .................................................................................. 59

3. Future Challenges ..................................................................................................... 65

Part I: What Makes up Wise Adaptation to Climate Change
Conclusions of the Review
Background and Objectives of the Review
1. Impacts
1.7 Developing
Countries

1.1 Food

1.3 Natural Ecosystems

1.5 Health

1.2 Water
Environment andWater Resources

1.4 Disaster Prevention
and Large Coastal
Cities

1.6 Citizen’s Life and
Urban Life

1.8 Other
Impacts

2. Adaptation
2.1 What is “Adaptation”?
2.2 What is “Wise Adaptation”?
2.2.1 Processes related to the Implementation of Adaptation Measures
2.2.2 Specific Elements that Make up Wise Adaptation(1) Promotion of regional
vulnerability assessments(2) Monitoring, and adoption ofearly warning systems thatutilize monitoring(3) Utilization of a diverse
range of options(4) Utilization of both long-termand short-term
perspectives(5) Utilization of observation
results, and introductionof adaptation measuresthat ensure a certain
degree of clearance(6) Mainstreaming adaptation(7) Effective and efficient
realization of lowvulnerability “flexible andresponsive systems”(8) Promotion of Co-benefittype Adaptation(9) Improvement of society-wide adaptive
capacity by utilizing insurance andother economic systems(10)
Development of systems ofcooperation and alliance with relevantorganizations(11) Promotion of voluntary initiatives
through entities that allow for a
detailed approach at the coalface(12) Development of human resources

2.2.3 Perspectives for Assessing Wise Adaptation
2.2.4 Main Options for Adaptation Measures
Technology
PolicySocial Economy

2.2.5 Points to Keep in Mind when Promoting Wise Adaptation(1) Consideration of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation(2) Sharing of existing examples and policies which can be drawn upon as adaptation measures(3) Need for further review of the effectiveness of adaptation measures and theirappropriateness from an inclusive perspective

2.3 Barriers to Adaptation

3. Future Challenges
Reference: Ascertaining, Predicting and Assessing Impacts(1) Ascertaining impact mechanisms(3) Methods for predicting impacts(5) Methods for assessing vulnerability(2) Important impact events to be watched(4) Indicators and methods for assessing impacts

Introduction

In 2005, a hurricane struck the United States causing 1,700 people to lose their lives. In 2003,
the death toll from a heat wave in Europe is alleged to have reached several ten thousand. In
Australia, there are droughts that have lasted no less than six years. In 2007 and 2008,
massive cyclones struck Bangladesh and Myanmar, causing extensive damage. While it isdifficult to conclude the extent to which global warming has contributed to these extreme
weather events, it has been scientifically predicted that if global warming continues, thesetypes of extreme weather events will increase. Watching these news reports, there is likely to
be a fair number of people who feel vaguely apprehensive that global warming will sooner orlater cause considerable damage of some kind in Japan as well.
In addition to reports on damage attributable to extreme weather, in 2007, the IPCC
periodically released the Working Group I, II and III Reports of its Fourth Assessment Report,
before releasing the Synthesis Report in November. At around the same time, people theworld over suddenly seem to have taken an increased interest in issues of global warming.
Issues of climate change are not just discussed in relation to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Today, they are discussed in various contexts, such as water
resources, food, security and biodiversity.
Previously, it was thought that the impacts of global warming would be serious in vulnerable
areas such as the leased developed countries of Africa, the Asian mega deltas and small islandstates, and that developed countries like Japan still had plenty of breathing space. However,
the heat waves of Europe and the pine wilt and forest fires in North America are examples of
how damage has become apparent even in developed countries. Nowadays, even in Japan,
there is a growing recognition that global warming is an issue that is close to home.
Even in Japan, an event of recent memory was during summer in 2007, when 40.9 degrees
Celsius was recorded in Kumagaya City and Tajimi City - the highest temperature on record
since observations were first taken. Furthermore, according to a survey of public agricultural
testing and research institutes, which was conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries, respondents stated that there are already apparent impacts in all prefectures
thought to be somehow caused by global warming. In recent years, there have also beenreports on strange phenomena occurring to familiar living creatures and marine resources.
It has been predicted that, if our fossil fuel dependent civilization continues unchanged, by theyear 2100, the global average temperature will have increased by approximately 4.0 degrees
Celsius. What kind of adverse impacts will this global warming have on Japan? And, what
preparations should we take to cope with these impacts?
In order to provide answers to these types of questions, 43 experts were gathered from various
fields of study, and chaired by Professor Nobuo Mimura, they conducted intensive reviews
and investigations for approximately eight months from October 2007. Global warming

4

affects all aspects of climate, the natural environment and social systems. Thus, we need to
predict future situations and consider countermeasures by utilizing our scientific knowledge
to the fullest extent.
The question of adaptation to the impacts of global warming is still a relatively new concept.
Although there had not been any systematic reviews in Japan before, the cooperation of alarge number of researchers were able to be secured for this new and challenging problem. As
a result of this cooperation, this Report offers valuable suggestions for deliberating on theimpacts of, and adaptation to, global warming in Japan.
In particular, the “wise adaptation” line of thinking, which is the crux of this Report, is anextremely important approach in Japan implementing effective and efficient adaptation
measures. In examining adaptation measures in various fields, I believe it will be important
to flesh out this “wise adaptation” approach. Furthermore, in developing countries whichhave insufficient adaptive capacity and are highly vulnerable, implementing adaptation
measures to counter global warming is an urgent issue, and we expect that the “wiseadaptation” approach will be more useful here the more severe the situation.
Adaptation measures become reality through cooperation with a broad range of relevantorganizations. In order to implement “wise adaptation”, a perspective of the impacts of, andadaptation to, global warming needs to be incorporated into existing policies, and measuresand projects need to be implemented in a systematic way. I hope that this Report will prove
instrumental in adaptation measures being examined at various relevant organizations, andwill serve as the foundation for thinking together about the question of the impacts of, andadaptation to, global warming.

Hideki Minamikawa
Director-General of the Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment
June 18, 20085

Committee Members and Working Group Members
The Committee on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research is comprised of the 12
experts listed below, and was established for the purpose of conducting this review. Sectoral
working groups were also established as a support structure for the purpose of reviewing eachof the individual fields from a more technical viewpoint. (The working groups cover 7
sectors and comprise 38 members. The 7 persons chairing the working groups also serve as
members of the Committee).

List of Members
Committee on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research
Ministry of the Environment(Titles omitted. General members listed in alphabetical order by surname. Correct as of June 18, 2008)

Chairperson

Nobuo Mimura
Hideo Harasawa

Yousei Hayashi
Akira Hibiki

Takahiko Hiraishi
Masahiko Isobe
Ichiro Kurane
Tohru Nakashizuka
Shuzo Nishioka
Shinichiro Ohgaki
Teruyuki Ohno
Mitsuru Tanaka

Professor and Special Assistant to the President, Center for
Water Environment Studies, Ibaraki University
Counselor to the Director-General for Policies (Environment &Energy), Cabinet Office (from April 2008)
Division Director, Social and Environmental Systems Division,
National Institute for Environmental Studies (until March 2008)
Professor, Graduate School of Life and Environmental
Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Head of the Environmental Economics and Policy Section,
Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institutefor Environmental Studies
Senior Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental
Strategies (IGES)
Professor, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The
University of Tokyo
Director, Department of Virology I, National Institute of
Infectious Diseases
Professor, Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku
University
Visiting Research Fellow, National Institute for Environmental
Studies
Professor, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo
Senior Director, Urban and Global Environment Division,
Bureau of the Environment, Tokyo Metropolitan Government
Professor, Hosei School of Policy Sciences

6List of Working Group Members
Committee on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research
Ministry of the Environment(Titles omitted. General members listed in alphabetical order by surname. Correct as of June 18, 2008)

Food Working Group
Chairperson
Yousei Hayashi
Vice Chairperson

Professor, Graduate School of Life andEnvironmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Masayuki Yokozawa Senior Researcher, Agro-Meteorology Division,
National Institute for Agro-Environmental
Sciences
Satoshi Morita
Senior Researcher, National Agricultural
Research Center for Kyushu Okinawa Region,
National Agricultural Research Organization
Kazufumi Takayanagi (former position) Director, Seikai National
Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research
Agency(new position) Director of the ProjectManagement Division, National ResearchInstitute of Fisheries and Environment of InlandSea, Fisheries Research Agency

Water Environment and Water Resources Working Group
Chairperson
Shinichiro Ohgaki
Professor, School of Engineering, The Universityof TokyoVice Chairperson Hiroaki Furumai
Professor, School of Engineering, The Universityof Tokyo
Koh-ichi Fujita(former position) Division Chief, National
Institute for Land and InfrastructureManagement(new position) Research Coordinator for
Environmental Affairs, National Institute forLand and Infrastructure Management
So Kazama
Associate Professor, Graduate School ofEnvironmental Studies, Tohoku University
Taikan Oki
Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The
University of Tokyo
Masahiro Otaki
Associate Professor, Graduate School of
Humanities and Science, Ochanomizu University

7Natural Ecosystems Working Group
Chairperson
Tohru Nakashizuka
Vice Chairperson

Jotaro Urabe

Yoshiyuki Kiyono
Kazuhiro Kogure

Takehiro Masuzawa
Masahiro Nakaoka

Yo Shimizu

Nobuyuki Tanaka

Professor, Graduate School of Life Sciences,
Tohoku University
Professor, Graduate School of Life Sciences,
Tohoku University
Director, Bureau of Climate Change, Forestry
and Forest Products Research Institute
Professor, Marine Microbiology Lab., Marine
Ecosystem Dynamics, Ocean Research Institute,
The University of Tokyo
Professor, Plant Biology Course, Graduate
School of Science, Shizuoka University(former position) Associate Professor, Graduate
School of Science, Chiba University(new position) Professor, Field Science Center
for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University
Assistant Professor, Graduate School of
Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University ofTokyo
Team Leader, Environmental Impacts Team,
Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry andForest Products Research Institute

Large Coastal Cities and Protection against Disasters Working Group
Chairperson
Masahiko Isobe
Dean and Professor, Graduate School of Frontier
Sciences, The University of Tokyo
Vice Chairperson Hiromune Yokoki
Associate Professor, Center for Water
Environment Studies, Ibaraki University
Masaya Fukuhama(former position) Division Chief, National
Institute for Land and InfrastructureManagement, (MLIT)(new position) Head of the Kurobe Office ofRiver, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport
and Tourism Hokuriku Regional Development
BureauEiichi Nakakita
Professor, Hydrometeorological Disasters
Section, Division of Atmospheric andHydrospheric Disasters, Disaster Prevention
Research Institute, Kyoto University

8

Health Working Group
Chairperson
Ichiro KuraneVice Chairperson

Mutsuo Kobayashi
Yasushi Honda
Masaji Ono

Kenji Tamura

Director, Department of Virology I, National
Institute of Infectious Diseases
Director, Department of Medical Entomology,
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
Professor, Graduate School of Comprehensive
Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Director, Environmental Health Sciences
Division, National Institute for Environmental
Studies
Senior Researcher, Environmental Health
Sciences Division, National Institute forEnvironmental Studies

National Lifestyles and Urban Life Working Group
Chairperson
Mitsuru Tanaka
Professor, Hosei School of Policy Sciences
Vice Chairperson Takahiro Nakaguchi
Director, Research Institute for Environmental
Policy, The Coalition of Local Government forEnvironmental Initiative
Professor, Department of Architecture andEnvironment Systems, Faculty of Systems
Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology
Yasuaki Hijioka
Senior Researcher, Integrated Assessment
Section, Social and Environmental Systems
Division, National Institute for Environmental
Studies
Hideo Shimada(former position) Section Chief, Environmental
Policy Section, Environmental Department,
Kumagaya City
(new position) Section Chief, Municipal Tax
Section, General Affairs Department, Kumagaya
City
Kenro Taura
Secretary-General, Kiko Network (NPO)9Developing Countries Working Group
Chairperson
Hideo Harasawa

Vice Chairperson

Kiyoshi Takahashi

Masato Kawanishi

Izumi Kubota

Hisamichi Nobuoka

Akinori Ogawa(former position) Division Director, Social andEnvironmental Systems Division, National
Institute for Environmental Studies(new position) Counselor to the Director-Generalfor Policies (Environment & Energy), Cabinet
OfficeSenior Researcher, Climate Risk Assessment
Research Section, Center for Global
Environmental Research, National Institute forEnvironmental Studies(former position) Senior Advisor, Institute forInternational Cooperation, Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA)(new position) Senior Advisor, JICA
Researcher, Social and Environmental Systems
Division, National Institute for Environmental
Studies
Lecturer, Department of Urban and Civil
Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ibaraki
University
Senior Fellow, United Nations University

Certain sections of Part II, Chapter 1 “Overview of Future Climate Scenarios and Social
Scenarios” were written with the cooperation of Seita Emori (Director, Climate Risk
Assessment Research Section, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institutefor Environmental Studies) and Kiyoshi Takahashi (Senior Researcher in the same Climate
Risk Assessment Research Section) et al.

10

Conclusions of the Review

1. Impacts of climate change are already apparent in Japan. In particular, there
has been a rapid emergence of impacts since the turn of this century.
In many parts of the world, there have been reports of heat waves, hurricanes, cyclones,
floods, droughts and other disasters which are possibly affected by climate change. In Japan
as well, especially since the turn of the 21st century, various impacts have come to light,
which are potentially caused by climate change.
Specific examples include: reduced yields and lower quality agricultural produce due to hightemperatures; a decline of Japanese beeches and other trees and a decrease in alpine plants;changes in ecosystems attributable to the sluggish vertical circulation of lakes; a reduction in
the distribution of cold water fish in freshwater environments; an increase in heatstroke
patients brought on by excessive heat; and a broader distribution of mosquitoes carrying
infectious diseases. There have also been water cutoffs and other impediments to using water
due to record low rainfalls, as well as damage caused by typhoon-induced storm surge andinundation damage caused by record intense rainfall, although at present, these cannot beclearly affirmed to be the impacts of climate change.

2. Further significant impacts are projected across a broad range of fields
related to people’s lives.
The impacts of climate change are closely related to the lives of each and every citizen, and it
is expected that the impacts will be even greater in the future. These impacts extend tovarious aspects of people’s lives, affecting the degree to which people can live securely,
healthily, affluently and comfortably, and in a way that they can get a sense of culture andhistory.
Specific examples of the impacts include: increases in landslide damage, inundation damage
and flood damage caused by intensification of typhoons and more frequent intense rainfall;
increases in the risks of heatstroke, heat stress, infectious diseases and air pollution; increases
in household spending due to higher agricultural commodity prices, air-conditioning costs andexpenditures for adaptation measures; greater discomfort and stress brought about by anincrease in hot days and hot nights; and forfeited views of natural scenery and recreational
spaces, and the loss of a sense of season.

11

3. If these impacts of climate change are combined with the particularvulnerability of Japan’s natural and social structures, then there is potential
for severer consequences for social security and stability
Previously, most discussion on the impacts of climate change focused on developing countries
that are highly vulnerable to climate change, such as the least developed countries of Africa,
small island states and the Asian mega-deltas. However, despite having a well-developedsocial infrastructure and science and technology, and despite being regarded as having acertain adaptive capacity, even Japan has vulnerabilities attributable to the natural and social
characteristics of the country, including a high frequency of typhoons, landslides andearthquakes, a reliance on overseas for food and resources, and an ageing population.
As the impacts of climate change pile up on these vulnerabilities, there is a risk that severe
consequences will arise that threaten the security and stability of society.

4. “Wise adaptation (effective and efficient adaptation)” is needed to address
the adverse affects of climate change.
The following undertakings are important for effective and efficient “wise adaptation” thatappropriately counters the adverse impacts of climate change which have great bearing on the
lives of Japanese people: (1) utilize the latest regional vulnerability assessments, monitoring andother results; (2) review and combine diverse optional adaptation measures; (3) from both a longterm and short-term perspective, consider the clearance against the temperature range that theadaptation measures can handle; (4) appropriately incorporate adaptation into existing disasterdamage prevention plans and other policies if they exist; and (5) make natural and socioeconomic
systems more flexible and adaptive. To achieve this, reviews need to be made from early stage asprecaution.
In particular, in order to achieve wise adaptation, the perspective of adaptation to climate change
needs to be incorporated into existing policy areas and related plans, including land-use plans,
city planning, agricultural policies, nature conservation policies and local government
environmental policies. In line with this philosophy, efforts need to be made for the effective
use of all resources by implementing additional adaptation measures for existing measures andfunds.
In addition to climate change, Japan faces various other challenges including an ageing anddecreasing population. Advancing wise adaptation that is suited to local circumstances will
ultimately change the local paradigm, and may lead to resolutions for these problems as well.
From a comprehensive perspective that includes urban development, etc., in the long term, it isimportant to aim for national land development that enables people to lead safe, secure andmore affluent lives.

125. In order to establish a framework that enable adaptation measures to be
implemented, further reviews need to be accumulated and an adaptation
plan for Japan needs to be formulated.
Some impacts of climate change have already come to light at the present point in time, andso now we need to urgently promote the implementation of adaptation measures.
Furthermore, as mentioned above, we need to effectively utilize limited financial, human andtemporal resources, and to implement measures for wise adaptation. Moreover, it is also
important that we facilitate consensus-building by listening extensively to the views of thepeople, and that we conduct follow-ups on the policies.
Thus, when conducting future reviews, we need to conduct cross-sectoral and more policyoriented examinations, securing the participation of relevant ministries and agencies.
Moreover, we need to devise an “adaptation plan” at the national level based on the full
findings of those examinations, and we need to establish a Plan, Do, Check, Act (PDCA)
cycle.

6. Cooperation

andassistanceisneededforparticularly

vulnerable

developing countries
The impacts of climate change in highly vulnerable developing countries are especially severe.
Various impacts are forecast for the Asia-Pacific region, including: an increase in floods
caused by glacier melts; an increase in the risk of starvation in some developing countries; anincrease in floods in mega-delta areas where there are concentrated populations; and adecrease in the land areas of some small islands due to sea level rise. Furthermore, in somecases the impacts in developing countries will extend indirectly as far as Japan, such as theeffects through countries from where food is imported as well as greater adverse health effects
through overseas travel.
In view of these impacts, Japan is being called on, as a member of the international
community and as a developed country with scientific knowledge and advanced technology,
to promote appropriate support and cooperation for adaptation to address the problems facedby those developing countries that are especially highly vulnerable.

137. As well as consolidating the latest scientific knowledge, further researchand investigations are needed.
In order to promote the “wise adaptation” outlined above, we first need to consolidate theknowledge and assessments of existing and projected impacts in Japan, and to organize thisinformation both into major disciplines and also interdisciplinarily. For this purpose, there
needs to be monitoring which serves as a basis for detecting impacts, the projection of future
impacts, vulnerability assessments, as well as economic assessments of impacts (damage).
Based on the findings, there also needs to be a presentation of how wise adaptation which
addresses these impacts ought to be, as well as further research and investigation for giving
shape to this wise adaptation.
Following are the expected current issues that will need to be addressed.
•

Implementation of adaptation measures based on scientific assessment, and theaccumulation and sharing of the relevant data, information and research findings•

Learning from past examples, and incorporating the adaptation viewpoint into various
policies•

Systematic promotion of adaptation measures that should be implemented immediately•

Construction of an ongoing review structure, and regular communication of review
findings•

Ongoing reviews related to adaptation support for developing countries•

Promotion of further research on the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change

14

Background and Objectives of the Review
1. Background● Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, states that warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, and is evident from observations of increases in global average airand ocean temperatures, wide spread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea
level.
● Further impacts of climate change is unavoidable.
As to the adaptation to global warming, it is stated in its Working Group II Contribution:“Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in
the next few decades, which makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term
impacts.”11● Effects of climate change are emerging even in societies with high adaptive capacity
The disasters such as heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, of which the relationshipwith climate change is presumably suggested, have been reported from around the world, andalso in Japan, various impacts presumed as those of climate change are emerging. The impactsof climate change are emerging not only as a gradual increase in mean temperature, but also
as sudden attacks of increase of extreme events to our society.
Previously, most discussion on the impacts of climate change focused on developing countries
that are highly vulnerable to climate change, such as the least developed countries of Africa,
small island states. However, despite being regarded as having a certain adaptive capacity,even Japan has need review adaptation measure to cope with climate change as precaution.
2. Objectives
Against this background, the review was conducted with the following three objectives.
(1) Clarify the scientific knowledge to date that relates to the impacts of, and adaptation to,
climate change in Japan and in developing countries.
(2) Present how wise adaptation (effective and efficient adaptation) ought to be.
1

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change sets as its ultimate objective “thestabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2).
To achieve this ultimate objective, it is important to make maximum effort for mitigation above all. As
indicated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all
climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly
reduce the risks of climate change (IPCC AR4 SYR SPM,p.20).

15

(3) Through the investigations in (1) and (2) above, present the challenges and the direction
for future research on the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change in Japan and indeveloping countries.

3. Method of Review
In conducting this review, the Committee on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Research was established as an advisory panel to the Director General of the Global
Environment Bureau at the Ministry of the Environment, and sectoral working groups werealso established as a support structure for the purpose of reviewing each of the individual
fields from a more technical viewpoint.
Each of the working groups focused on drawing together as much as possible existing
research findings related to the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change. They also
undertook considerable discussion on vulnerability assessments, for which there is currently
little knowledge, and on views about the implementation of adaptation measures, before
collating those views.
4. Targeted Regions and Periods
In general, the review was targeted at Japan. Where necessary, consideration was also given
to related countries and regions according to the relevant field of review. In the developing
countries area, reviews targeted those countries in the Asia-Pacific region that have close
relations with Japan.
Existing research knowledge on the impacts and adaptation in the respective fields of review
was organized with a focus on the relatively short term of 2020-2030, being the intermediate
point in time for considering adaptation measures, while also looking ahead to the long-term
future of 2050 and 2100. Reviews on the direction for future research were also conducted,
bearing in mind the type of research that ought to be conducted over the following three years
or so.

16

1. Impacts

In this section, we first describe the “Observed Impacts”, or the characteristics of the impactsof climate change in each field of review, and we present examples of impact events that havebeen observed in the past. We then present the “Projected Impacts”, or examples of future
impacts that are projected to occur as a result of climate change.
In particular, at present, with some of the examples given as “Observed Impacts”, it cannot beclearly affirmed that they are necessarily the result of climate change. However, in the future,
if climate change progresses, it is feared that these events may occur more frequently,
resulting in tremendous damage. For this reason, in order to help in the prediction of future
impacts and the reviews of wise adaptation, in this section, we have decided to include events
for which we cannot at present readily determine whether they are the result of climatechange, but which would appear as being likely, and events that are believed will increase if
climate changes advance. That is, readers should be mindful of the fact that not all of theexamples of “Observed Impacts” given here are examples that have been affirmed to be theresult of climate change.
More concrete details of the impact events in each field are given in the “Observed Impacts”
and “Projected Impacts” sections contained in the sector-specific chapters in Part II.

17

1.1 Food
1.1.1 Observed Impacts
Impacts on food occur through impacts on the agriculture, livestock and fisheries industries.
Past examples include: the incidence of white immature grains and cracked grains of rice, andreduced quality and taste caused by high temperatures; an increase in frost damage due to theearlier than usual wheat young panicle formation; reduced harvests brought about by shorter
ripening periods; an increase in pest damage to soybeans; and damage caused by hot dry
climates. In the fruit industry, reductions in quality and storability, increases in frost damage
to tea plantations, and increases in pests have been observed. In the livestock industry, adecrease in impregnation rates, reduced milk yields and poor growth have emerged. In thefisheries industry, there has been an increase in southern (tropical and subtropical) fish, aswell as changes in the fishing season and a slump in aquaculture.
•

Incidence of white immature rice grains (cloudy hulled rice) in regions south of Tohoku[Chapter 2 2.2]•

High incidence of cracked rice grains (hulled rice with cracks) in the Tohoku andHokuriku regions [Chapter 2 2.2]•

Accelerated wheat young panicle formation and stemming caused by higher wintertemperatures, and subsequent increases in frost damage [Chapter 2 2.2]•

Ukikawa symptoms -detached fruit skin and flesh- in Mandarin oranges due to hightemperatures and high rainfall, and poor coloration in grapes due to high temperatures[Chapter 2 2.2]•

Public agricultural testing and research institutes in all 47 prefectures nationwide weresurveyed on the impact of global warming on agriculture. All prefectures responded thatfruit trees were, in one way or another, being affected by impacts thought to be somehow
attributable to global warming. 90% of prefectures thought the same for vegetables andflowers, and about 40% thought the same for livestock. [Chapter 2 2.2]•

Delayed seaweed harvests seasons due to water temperatures cooling down later thanusual in autumn [Chapter 2 2.2], etc.

18

Milky white
rice kernelWhite-backkernelBasal immature
kernelFigure 1 White immature grains from irrigated rice (Morita, 2005)

Figure 2

Ukikawa symptoms in mandarin oranges due to hightemperatures and heavy rain
Photographs provided by: Fruit Tree Research Division, Agricultural Technology ResearchCenter, Hiroshima Prefectural Technology Research Institute

1.1.2 Projected Impacts
In agriculture, as well as an even greater deterioration in rice quality, there is potential for theideal sowing seasons in wet-rice cultivation to become bipolarized (the warmer areas of the
Kanto region and to the southwest would drop back, and other areas would be earlier thanusual), and it is predicted that there would be a subsequent decrease in the national average
yield of rice. It is also predicted that there would be reduced harvests of wheat and soybeans
due to higher temperatures, and that the suitable lands for fruit trees would shift. Furthermore,
it is also possible that the increase in pests and the rampant growth of weeds would lead to anincrease in the amount of labor required to control them. Moreover, it is also predicted that
agricultural water resources would become depleted with lower snowfalls and earlier thaws,
and that there would be an increase in damage caused by salty winds accompanying typhoons.
In fisheries, predictions include the potential for the habitats of northern fish to shiftnorthward and the habitats of southern (tropical and subtropical) fish to expand, as well as thepotential for shifts in the suitable areas for aqua-farming and an increase in infectious diseases.

19

[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Significant exacerbation of the poor ripening of rice (lower quality and grain weight)[Chapter 2 2.3]•

Northward shift of suitable lands for apple cultivation (possibility of losing the ability togrow apples on the central plains of the Tohoku region) [Chapter 2 2.3]•

Northward shift of the damage and pest caused by high temperatures [Chapter 2 2.3]•

Water shortages during the rice-planting season due to lower snowfalls and greater snow
melts [Chapter 2 2.3]•

Decrease in habitat for salmon, and a northward shift of the habitats for herring [Chapter
2 2.3]•

Slower growth of the Pacific saury -samma-due to a worsening of feeding environment,
but an increase in spawning due to the improved feed environment during spawningseason (the Pacific seaboard of eastern Japan) [Chapter 2 2.3]•

Northward shift for suitable aqua-farming of blowfish -Torafugu- [Chapter 2 2.3]

Present day

2060-69

Figure 3
Change in the
distribution of suitablelands for apple
cultivation(Sugiura, et al., 2004)

Areas best suited
for apples
Warmer areas
Cooler areas

Present day

2050
Since physicaldevelopment isslow, southward
movement isdelayed, andthe fish do not
return to the
Kuroshio
Current region
during their firstwinter.

Oyashio
Current
regionMixedwaterregionLife in the mixed
water region
becomeslonger, and as aresult, feeding
conditions
improve, andthe amount ofeggs spawned
increases.

Kuroshio
Current
regionPacific saury-

20

Figure 4
Migration route of the
Pacific saury, calculatedusing a numerical model(adapted from Ito, 2007,a, b)

1.2 Water Environment and Water Resources
1.2.1 Observed Impacts
The direct impacts on the water environment and water resources appear as changes in thevolume of water, water temperature and water quality of each type of water source, including
river water, lakes, marshes, dammed lakes and groundwater. These changes influence natural
ecosystems and society’s water utilization systems and the structure of water demand. Whilst
at present it cannot be clearly determined whether they are due to the effects of climatechange, variations in the frequency of extreme weather events and changes in rainfall andsnowfall trends have been recorded and reported, and there are concerns that if climatechange advances, these variations will be further amplified. Furthermore, one of the featuresof the water environment and water resources sector is the fact that any changes in the volume
of water or water quality also have flow-on effects to a broad range of other sectors, including
agricultural production, natural ecosystems, protection against disasters and health.
•

Incidence of restrictions on water-intake from drinking water sources, and restrictions
and suspensions of water supply due to record low rainfall[Chapter 3 3.2]•

Abnormal blooms of blue-green algae in lakes and marshes (impact of water use andaquatic ecosystems) [Chapter 3 3.2]•

Increase in the use of groundwater as a consequence of water shortages, and thesubsequent incidence of land subsidence [Chapter 3 3.2], etc.

21

Green: Examples related to the volume of water and water quality, etc. of rivers
Blue:

Examples related to the volume of water and water quality, etc. of lakes, marshes anddammed lakes

Orange: Examples related to the volume of water and water quality, etc. of groundwater

Damage was caused by torrential
rainfalls associated with seasonalrain fronts in places like Niigata andFukui in 2004 (levees breached along
the Kariyata River).

At Lake Suwa, there has long
been a phenomenon called“Omiwatari”, where cracks
appear on the frozen surfaceof the lake. However, since1951, there has been a rapid
increase in the frequency ofreports of “Akenoumi (lakefails to freeze)” and “No
Omiwatari”.

The 1994 drought caused bluegreen algae to bloom for 27
consecutive days in the shallower
southern basin of Lake Biwa.
The 1994 drought
caused extensive
damage of red tide in
Lake Shinji.

The 1996 drought caused restrictions
on water being taken from Lake
Sagami, Lake Tsukui and Lake
Tanzawa, as well as restrictions onwater supply. Water supply was cut
off in some areas.

The low rainfall of 2002
led to a restriction of
only 55% of water
being taken from the
Chikugo River inFukuoka Prefecture.

Flood damage was caused by fierce
rain falling at more than 100mm perhour in the 23 wards of Tokyo in 2005.
The 1994 drought caused an increase in
groundwater being used in the areas
surrounding Nagoya, and resulted inincidences of land subsidence.
During the 27 years
between 1979 and2005, the averageannual watertemperature of each of
the five rivers in
Kagawa Prefecture has
been on an upward
trend.

Figure 5

Past examples similar to the events that are feared will result fromthe advance of climate change

221.2.2 Projected Impacts
Some impacts arise from changes in ordinary phenomena, and others arise from changes in
the frequency or intensity of extreme phenomena. There is concern that temporal changes andquantitative changes in the average values of water temperature and precipitation will lead tochanges in river flows, reduced snowfalls, changes in the timing of snowmelts, changes in thewater levels of lakes, and changes in water quality; and that water supply and ecosystems will
be affected. Furthermore, there are also concerns that there will be effects in the form of anincreased risk of drought brought about by increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
events, for instance, by more frequent and more seriously low rainfalls. On the other hand,the extreme phenomenon of unusually heavy rainfalls, for instance, an increase in thefrequency and intensity of brief localized downpours, will have an impact in the form of anincrease in the risk of floods. In cases where sea level rise are anticipated, another projected
impact is the salinization of groundwater.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Increased risk of drought [Chapter 3 3.3]•

Increased landslide disasters due to higher frequency of short-term, concentrated extreme
rainfalls [Chapter 3 3.3]•

Elevated water temperatures in rivers, lakes, dam reservoirs, and groundwater, andincreased probability of blue-green algae blooms [Chapter 3 3.3]•

Salinization of groundwater associated with rising sea levels [Chapter 3 3.3], etc.

23

of

3

Flow (m /s)

Decrease in runoff

Earlierstart
outflow periods

Present
FutureInsufficient runoff during the demandseason, even if tilling start earlier

Ineffective runoff
Apr

Volume of water
reserves

Jan

Figure 6

Full

Tilling season

Jul

Oct

Drying upof dams

Inability tomaintain

Present
FutureThe possible effects that a decrease in snow (caused by climatechange) might have on water resource security and annual streamflow fluctuation patterns (impact on the latter is expressed using thevolume of water available in dams)(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT),
2007)

24

1.3 Natural Ecosystems
1.3.1 Observed Impacts
Impacts on natural ecosystems can be broadly divided into effects on forest, alpine, freshwater,
ocean, coast or moor ecosystems, and effects on biodiversity. Reports have included changes invegetation and water areas that form the basis of each ecosystem, and changes in the distributionof living creatures.

Moreover, even before the impacts of climate change, the natural

ecosystems sector had been greatly affected by human activity, and there are fears that climatechange could deliver the final blow to ecosystems that have already deteriorated due to theeffects of human activity.
•

Decline of Japanese beech forests, pine-tree decay in common wood, and decrease inflora in alpine regions [Chapter 4 4.2]•

Aridification of moors, and a decrease of vegetation in snowfields [Chapter 4 4.2]•

Dispersion of Japanese deer and other species. due to the decrease in snow cover[Chapter 4 4.2]•

Stagnation of vertical circulation of lakes and a reduction in dissolved oxygen at thebottom of lakes [Chapter 4 4.2]•

Reduction of distribution areas for cold-water fish in fresh-water regions [Chapter 4 4.2]•

An increase in southern species and a decrease in northern species along coastal regions,the bleaching and destruction of coral reefs [Chapter 4 4.2]•

Impacts on biological production caused by higher temperatures and lower levels of
dissolved oxygen in the Okhotsk Sea and other areas [Chapter 4 4.2]•

Camellia, Japanese ume, dandelions and cherry trees, etc., earlier flowering periods; andginkgo and maple trees etc., later stages of leaves turning yellow, red, and falling.
[Chapter 4 4.2]•

Examples in Kyushu , late blooming due to insufficient “dormancy breaking” caused by
low temperatures.[Chapter 4 4.2], etc.

25

Figure 7 Distribution of alpine
plant communities
at Yatsugatake

Figure 8
Cases of alpine plants that haveaffected by climate change
Top left: Diapensia
Bottom left: Golden rhododendron
Right: Cassiope
Photographs provided by: Professor Takehiro
Masuzawa, Plant Biology Course, Graduate Schoolof Science, Shizuoka University(Masuzawa, 2005): Alpine plants communities
At present, alpine plant communities only
remain along ridgeline areas.

26

1.3.2 Projected Impacts
In each of the forest, alpine, freshwater, ocean, coast and moor ecosystems, it is projected thatthe previously observed impacts will progress further.

Although it is expected that the

distribution of many organisms will shift northward, there is a strong possibility that the
fragmentation of habitats and other factors will halt these northward shifts. There is also thepossibility that, depending on the extent of climate change, there will be other irreversible
effects, such as the extinction of species caused by the disappearance of places to where living
creatures can seek refuge. In lakes, stagnation of vertical circulation will become morewidespread, causing complex changes with water pollution and introduced species, andtriggering complex changes. In oceans, acidification will continue, affecting plankton andcalcified organisms.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Decrease in distribution areas suitable for Japanese beech-tree forests, subalpine belts
and subarctic coniferous forests, and a rapid decrease in alpine plant communities in
Hokkaido [Chapter 4 4.3]•

Expansion of bamboo groves in the Tohoku region, and increase of pine tree decay[Chapter 4 4.3]•

CO2 Emissions from forest soil in cold districts [Chapter 4 4.3]•

Increased stagnation of vertical circulation in lakes and oceans [Chapter 4 4.3]•

Changes in species distribution in freshwater regions, and invasion of alien species[Chapter 4 4.3]•

Changes in food chain caused by diminishing sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea, and changes in
the migration routes of migratory species of fish [Chapter 4 4.3]•

Escalation in the effects on plankton and calcified organisms caused by the ocean
acidification [Chapter 4 4.3]•

Increase in coral breaching and disease, and reduce in sandy beach environment.
[Chapter 4 4.3], etc.

27

Distribution probabilities

Figure 9

Projected distribution probabilities for Japanese beech forests
based on RCM20 and MIROC climate scenarios(Project for the Integrated Prediction of the Impacts of Global
Warming, 2008)28

1.4 Disaster Prevention and large Coastal Cities
1.4.1 Observed Impacts
Impacts on large coastal cities and protection against disasters can be broadly divided into
damage in coastal areas caused by storm surge and the effects of floods and landslides in river
basins. Events are occurring which we cannot at present readily determine whether they
result from climate change, but which would appear as being likely, or which are believed will
increase if climate change advances. In terms of rainfall, in recent years, there has been an
increase in the range of fluctuation in annual precipitation: while the overall trend is for lower
rainfalls, the frequency of extreme rainfalls has been increasing.
•Damage along the Nabae Coast of Kochi Prefecture caused by storm surge associatedwith Typhoon No. 23 in 2004 [Chapter 5 5.2]•

Increased frequency of corridor submerging at Itsukushima Shrine 2 [Chapter 5 5.2]•

Inundation damage to underground space due to record levels of extreme rainfalls innorthern Kyushu [Chapter 5 5.2]•

Increased frequency of short-term, concentrated extreme rainfalls [Chapter 5 5.2]•

Decrease in the amount of water able to be stably supplied from dams in the Kiso
reservoirs [Chapter 5 5.2]

2

Visual records contained in the shrine journals. Readers should be mindful that there are annual fluctuations.

29

Figure 10 Photograph of the damage caused along the Nabae Coast in Kochi
Prefecture Kochi Prefecture
Photograph provided by: Masaya Fukuhama, Head of the Kurobe Office of River, Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Hokuriku Regional Development Bureau

Number of occurrences of 50+mm/h ofrain

Annualaverage:
318 times

Frequency

Annualaverage:
206 times

Annualaverage:
233 times

1978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Year

Figure 11 Number of cases of 50mm+ of hourly precipitation by decade(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT),
2007)

30

1.4.2 Projected Impacts
In coastal areas, predictions include an increase in damage caused by a combination of storm
surge on top of sea level rise, and coastal erosion and the loss of sandy beaches due to sea
level rise. Studies are currently underway on the effects of increased upstream river flows andsediment discharges on lower reaches and coastal areas, and the effects of flooding within
leveed areas. The possibility has also been raised of shifts in typhoon movements leading todamage from storm surge being caused to areas previously not anticipated.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Increased intensity of typhoons [Chapter 5 5.3]•

Possible storm surge damage in bays facing southeast, as a result of shifts in typhoon
course [Chapter 5 5.3]•

Increased wind speeds and ocean waves caused by typhoons•

Increase of wave overtopping rates and coastal erosion due to sea level rise [Chapter 5
5.3]•

Erosion and loss of sandy beaches due to sea level rise (disappearance of 90% of sandy
beach will disappear with a one-meter rise in sea levels) [Chapter 5 5.3]•

Decrease in flood control safety levels for all of Japan’s water systems [Chapter 5 5.3]•

Increased frequency of landslide disasters due to snowmelt [Chapter 5 5.3], etc.

Rate ofchangeRate ofchangeFigure 12 Changes in 100 year maximum
daily precipitation(50 years later / at present)

31

Figure 13 Changes in 100 year maximum
daily precipitation(100 years later / at present)1.5 Health1.5.1 Observed Impacts
Impacts of climate change on human health can be broadly divided into: direct effects causedby summer heat; and indirect effects, such as through infectious diseases, air pollution, largescale natural disasters, harmful insects, and so on. In terms of the effects caused by heat,
there have been reports on an increase in the mortality rates of patients with cardiovascularand respiratory diseases, and an increase in the number of heatstroke patients. In terms ofinfectious diseases, there have been reports on changes in the distribution of vectors of
infectious diseases, including a new penetration of mosquitoes transmitting Japanese
encephalitis from Southeast Asia, and a northward shift in the domestic distribution of the
Asian tiger mosquito, which is a mosquito that transmits such diseases as dengue fever. There
have also been reports on a northward shift of areas where waterborne bacteria which cause
infection have been detected in seawater.
•

Increase in excess mortality due to heat stress [Chapter 6 6.2]•

Record high numbers of heat stroke patients seen in many cities in 2007 (Total number

3of patients in Tokyo and 17 ordinance-designated cities exceeded 5,000) [Chapter 6 6.2]•

Expansion of distribution area of the Asian tiger mosquito transmitting dengue fever andother diseases, and a new invasion of mosquitoes transmitting Japanese encephalitis
from Southeast Asia [Chapter 6 6.2]•

Northward shift of areas where Vibrio vulnificus is being detected in seawater [Chapter 66.2], etc.

3

The number of heatstroke patients here refers to the number of patients who were transported by ambulance
within a jurisdiction controlled by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency or Fire Department. It does notinclude the number of patients who went directly to the medical institution without using an ambulance, or thenumber of patients who did not go to a medical institution.

32

Persons

Persons
Total

Number of patients per city

Total number of patientsChiba
23 wards of Tokyo
Municipalities in Tokyo
Yokohama
Kawasaki
NagoyaHiroshima

Year

Figure 14 Trends in number of heat stroke patients per city
Data provided by: Masashi Ono, Director of the Integrated Health Risk Assessment Section,
Environmental Health Sciences Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies

33

1.5.2 Projected Impacts
In terms of the impacts of summer heat, it is predicted that there will be an increase in the risk ofdeath caused by heat stress, and in particular, an increase in the number of patients withcardiovascular disease. Other predictions include an increase in the number of heatstroke
patients, and an increase in nighttime sleeping disorders associated with an increase in thenumber of tropical nights. It is expected that these heat induced impacts will be significant
particularly among the elderly. In terms of infectious diseases, it is predicted that the northward
shift in the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito in the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions, plus
the penetration of the yellow-fever mosquito into Japan, will lead to the whole of Japan
becoming at risk of dengue fever and chikungunya fever epidemics. It is also predicted that theareas where cases of Japanese encephalitis arise will shift northward.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Increase in excess mortality due to heat stress [Chapter 6 6.3]•

Increase in number of heat stroke patients (Tokyo-based projection) [Chapter 6 6.3]•

Possible expansion of distribution area of dengue-transmitting Asian tiger mosquitoes
and yellow-fever mosquitoes [Chapter 6 6.3], etc.

LegendCell values－14－0 ℃
0－ 5 ℃
5－ 9 ℃
9 －10 ℃
10 －15 ℃
15 －18.5 ℃

Areasネッタイシマカが生息可能な地域
inhabitable by yellow-fever
mosquitoes（現在の台北市とほぼ同じ温度）(Similar temperatures to present-day Taipei)
Areas of potential epidemics of dengue fever
ネッタイシマカによってデング熱
transmitted by yellow-fever mosquitoes
が流行可能な地域(Similar temperatures to the averagetemperature of Tainan, where the dengue（デング熱が流行している台南市のfever is already an epidemic)
平均気温とほぼ同じ温度となる）

Figure 15 Projected average January temperatures and expanded distributionof the yellow-fever mosquitoes (2100)(Kobayashi et al., 2008)34

1.6 Citizen’s Life and Urban Life
1.6.1 Observed Impacts
Impacts on citizen’s life and urban life of Japan are closely related to the lives of each andevery citizen, and are phenomena that people experience in their everyday lives. By focusing
on phased classifications of people’s lives, namely, whether they can live securely, healthily,affluently and comfortably and in a way that they can get a sense of culture and history, we
can summarize impacts according to the effects described in sections 1.1 - 1.5 above and tothe viewpoint of the extent characteristic phenomena affect people’s lives.
4•

Rise international prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans, etc. [Chapter 7 7.2]•

Earlier blossoming of Japanese ume and cherry trees, etc.; and deciduous trees turning
colors and falling their leaves later [Chapter 7 7.2]•

Impact by changes of natural environment and climate condition in the tourist and sports
industries [Chapter 7 7.2]•

Increased frequency of reports of “Akenoumi (lake fails to freeze)” and “No Omiwatari”
at Lake Suwa, where there has long been a phenomenon called “Omiwatari”, where
cracks appear on the frozen surface of the lake [Chapter 7 7.2]•

Increased frequency of corridor submerging at Itsukushima Shrine [Chapter 7 7.2], etc.

Figure 16
View of the “Omiwatari” at Lake
Suwa (circa 1980)(Reproduced using a photogravure from theHistorical Volumes of Suwa City)

4

Rising international prices are not only affected by climate change. They are also related to various other factors
including increases in the demand for food attributable to the economic development of population superpowers
such as China and India, and increases in the global demand for cereals and other crops as sources of biofuel.

35

2000

19 90

1980

19 70

1960

Year
年

10 1 1
7

Figure 17 Increase in the frequency of the Itsukushima Shrine corridors being
submerged(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT),
2007)

36

2006

2005

2004

0
2003

1996

1

12

2002

0

22
17

3
2000

0

2

1999

0

1995

1

1994

1

1992

1989

0

1991

1

0

1990

4

1998

10

1997

Annual frequency of floods in the
Itsukushima Shrine corridors(Produced by the Chugoku Regional
Development Bureau based on the
Itsukushima Shrine Journals)

15

5※ 現状 に お いて 、地球 温暖 化 の影 響であ る か
明 確 で は な い が 、 原 因 とな っ て い る可 能 性 が考 えられ る

about 40約times
40 回

2001

25
20

右 図 ：厳 島 神 社 回 廊 の 年 間 冠 水 回 数(厳 島 神 社 社 務 日 誌 よ り 中 国 地 方 整 備 局 作 成 )about 100
約times
100回

冠水回数
Frequencyof floods

1993

上 図 ： ベ ニ ス (イ タ リ ア ) S t M a rk ’s S qu ar eの 年 間
冠 水 回 数 (S T E R N R E V IE W : T h e E c on om ics of
C lim a te C ha ng eの 記 述 を 図 化 )

1950

1940

1930

19 20

1910

1900

Frequency
回120
100
Annual frequency of floods in St Mark’s Square, Venice,
Italy (graph based on the description provided in the
80
STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change)
60
40
1 0times
回 以 or下less
2 0 1001.6.2 Projected Impacts
It is projected that the impacts on citizen’s life and urban life of Japan will affect people’s
lives in a wide range of areas, from impacts related to safety and human life, through toeffects on economical lifestyles and effects related to more high-order emotional needs. It isthought that these effects will vary in type and degree depending on the habitat (urban area,rural area) and the subject (individual, household, elderly, educational institution, local
government, etc.) being affected.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Loss of human life, property and human habitats, due to extreme weather damage[Chapter 7 7.3]•

Impacts on regional transportation and communications facilities due to extreme weather.
[Chapter 7 7.3]•

Increases in deaths, heat stroke and infectious diseases caused by heat waves [Chapter 7
7.3]•

Increased burden on household budgets due to the increased prices of agricultural
products and the extended use of air conditioning [Chapter 7 7.3]•

Increases of discomfort in everyday life due to an increase of extremely hot days and hotnights [Chapter 7 7.3]•

Impacts on tourist industries and opportunities for recreation, due to a decrease in alpine
plants and other changes in ecosystems, and to the loss of sandy beaches, and thedecrease in wetlands and other such factors [Chapter 7 7.3]•

Impacts on sports industry due to less snowfall and later snow seasons [Chapter 7 7.3]•

Impacts on local culture and loss of a sense of the seasons due to snow seasons shortages
and changes in cherry blossom season [Chapter 7 7.3], etc.

37

160

Change in the number of tropical days
calculated in Japan between 1900 and
1402100 (results for 2001 and later use
the “A1B” scenario). If even one of120
the cells covering the Japanese100
archipelago (approximately 100km x
100km) has a maximum temperature
80
exceeding 30 degrees Celsius, it iscounted as a tropical day. Since60
urbanization has not been taken into
40
account, and since it is based on
average values over broad areas,
20
absolute values cannot be directly0compared with observation data.
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Only relative changes are significant.

Figure 18 Number of hot days (maximum temperature is more than 30 C) in
Japan (unit: days) (Combined research team(Tokyo University etc.),2004)

12

Change in the number of summerdays (Jun-Aug) with torrential rains
calculated in Japan between 1900 and
102100 (results for 2001 and later use
the “A1B” scenario). If even one of8
the cells covering the Japanesearchipelago (approximately 100km x
6100km) has a daily precipitation
exceeding 100mm, it is counted as a4
day with torrential rainfall. Since it isbased on average values over broad
2
areas, absolute values cannot bedirectly compared with observation
data. Only relative changes are
01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 significant.

Figure 19 Number of summer days with extreme rainfalls in Japan(unit: days) (Combined research team(Tokyo University etc.),2004)

38

1.7 Developing Countries
1.7.1 Observed Impacts
Developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region have extremely diverse natural and social
conditions. Impacts on these developing countries can be broadly divided into: effects onnatural systems, such as cryospheres, water resources and ecosystems; and effects on social
systems, such as human health and coastal/urban areas. In terms of natural systems, there
have been reports on the rapid melting of permafrost and glaciers, increases in the intensity
and scope of forest fires, deterioration of grasslands and wetlands, and shifts of many animaland plant species to higher and more northerly locations. In terms of social systems, there
have been reports on the emergence of effects on human health, the effects of rising sea levels
on coastal areas, and increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
•

Increases in the frequency of glacier lake outbursts as a result of the rapid melting ofglaciers [Chapter 8 8.2]•

Incidence of water shortages in certain parts of China, caused by the depletion of lakes
and rivers [Chapter 8 8.2]•

Severe deterioration of wetlands and other ecosystems in the delta regions of Pakistan,
Bangladesh, India and China [Chapter 8 8.2]•

Considerable number of deaths in several states in India due to the heat waves of recent
years [Chapter 8 8.2]•

Large numbers of cyclone victims in places like Bangladesh and Myanmar, etc.

on a river

settlement(right bank of Bago river, at the 21km from the river mouth)(parol evidence) flooded to around 15cm in a road.
2008.5.14 11:36(left bank of Bago river, at the 43km from the a river mouth)(parol evidence) The tide level of the storm surge was at thesame level as the greatest tide level of the wet season..
2008.5.14 16:27

Figure 20 Damage caused by storm surge in Myanmar
Photographs provided by: Tomoya Shibayama and Hiroshi Takagi Laboratory, Yokohama National University39

1.7.2 Projected Impacts
In terms of the impacts on developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, it is predicted that
there will be an increase in floods and debris avalanches caused by glacier melts, a decrease inavailable freshwater in the catchment areas of large rivers, adverse effects on ecosystems andbiodiversity, risks of starvation in some developing countries, an increase in floods in densely
populated mega-delta areas, and increases in morbidity and mortality rates arising fromdiarrheal diseases in the wake of floods and droughts. Particularly in small islands, it ispredicted that rising sea levels will lead to a decrease in land area, damage caused by inundation,a decrease in freshwater lenses, effects on indigenous species and coral reefs, and a decline in
the tourism industries.
[Main examples of projected impacts]•

Increase in floods, etc. caused by the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas [Chapter 8
8.3]•

Adverse effects on more than 1 billion people by 2050 as a result of a decrease inavailable freshwater [Chapter 8 8.3]•

By the middle of the 21st century, crop productions will increase by up to 20% in East
Asia and Southeast Asia, but will decrease by up to 30% in Central Asia and South Asia
[Chapter 8 8.3]•

In particular, the densely populated mega-deltas in South Asia, East Asia and Southeast
Asia will be faced with the risk of increased floods [Chapter 8 8.3]•

Rising sea levels in small islands will lead to a decrease in land area, effects on
infrastructure, and a decline in tourism industries, etc.

Asia
■ Water resources Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rockavalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within
the next two to three decades
 Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia,
particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease due to climatechange which, along with population growth and increasing demand arisingfrom higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion
people by the 2050s.
■ Agriculture and food It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and SouthEast Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by
the mid-21st century. Taken together, and considering the influence of otherfactors, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several
developing countries.
■ Coasts Coastal areas, specially heavily-populated mega delta regions in South, Eastand South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk.
■ Health Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily
associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South andSouth-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle.

Small Islands■ Coasts
 Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate lossof land, inundation, storm surge, erosion andother coastal hazards, thus threatening vital
infrastructure, settlements and facilities that
support the livelihood of island communities.
■ Water resources A 10% reduction in average rainfall by 2050 islikely to correspond to a 20% reduction in thesize of the freshwater lens on a Pacific small
island.
■ Industry
 Erosion of beaches, coral degradation andbleaching due to sea level rise and higher sea
water temperature is expected to affect local
resources and reduce the value of these
destinations for tourism.

Figure 21 Examples of projected impacts in developing countries(Produced by the IPCC, 2007)40

1.8 Other Impacts
Although a specific working group for the effects and adaptation in the industrial sector has
not been established in this review, it is envisaged that climate change will also have various
effects on industry. For example, there is potential for impacts on the manufacturing industry(such as changes in revenue from the sale of household appliances, clothing, food andbeverages, etc., and the effects of extreme weather events on production lines and on facilities
located along the coast), impacts on power producers (such as changes in power demands, andthe effects of rising sea levels on facilities located along the coast), and impacts on theinsurance industry (such as increases in the amounts paid on insurance claims as a result of
disasters).
Furthermore, there are fears that, as climate change advances, geopolitical problems will arise
which could develop into international disputes. For example, the emergence of new shipping
routes as a result of melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, and the erosion and submergence of
places like Okinotorishima Island due to rising sea levels have the potential to give rise toissues involving the territorial lands and seas of the nations concerned. Moreover, in regions
where it is predicted that rising sea levels will lead to the disappearance of land, as in Tuvalu,
there may be an emergence of environmental refugees.

41

2. Adaptation

2.1 What is “Adaptation”?

● Adaptation refers to making adjustments in natural or human systems in response
to climate change.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report refers to “adaptation” as the “adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”.5
The same report refers to “adaptive capacity” as “the ability of a system to adjust to climatechange (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences”.6● This review focuses on adaptation that is intentionally implemented by humans.
In this review, a decision was made to focus on adaptation that is intentionally implemented
by humans for the purpose of protecting social safety, human life, health, convenience,
comfort and other such factors. In other words, the review has mostly targeted adaptation thatis undertaken at the decision of policymakers in national and local governments, andadaptation that is intentionally undertaken by individuals or communities, etc. Further, in thisreview, it was decided to use the expression “adaptation measures” when referring to specificindividual adaptation at the policy or measures level.
● Although the review does not cover biological adaptation, it needs to be considered.
In the fields of biology and ecology, an individual organism responding to an environmental
change autonomously or through evolution is called “adaptation”. In this review, this kind of
adaptation has generally not been included within the scope of the review. However, when
considering adaptation measures in the natural ecosystems sector, biological adaptation andacclimatization7 by organisms adjusting of their own accord cannot be ignored. In view ofthis, in the natural ecosystems sector, it was decided to also take into account adaptation in the
biological sense of the term, and attention was paid to using terminology appropriately so as
not to cause misunderstanding.

5

Source: Glossary, Working Group II Report, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including
anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation.
6
Source: End box 1, Summary for Policymakers, Working Group II Report, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
7

Changing of the functions, qualities or appearance of an organism in accordance with persistent changes of theexternal conditions to which it is subject.

42

2.2 What is “Wise Adaptation”?

2.2.1 Processes related to the Implementation of Adaptation Measures

In order to increase the effectiveness of adaptation, it is important to build a mechanism
comprised of the following processes: understand the current situation (monitor, build
databases, etc.) → predict impacts → formulate policies → implement → evaluate.
Particularly in developing countries, even if we attempt to predict the impacts and formulate
policies, in many cases, the data that forms the basis for such predictions and policies is not
yet developed. Therefore, it is essential that we first put effort into understanding the current
situation by monitoring and proceeding to accumulate data.

Climatevariability

Mitigation

Climate change

Monitoring,
establishment of
databases

Impacts

Information,awareness

Existing
management
practices

Planning,
designPolicycriteria

Other stresses

Implementation

Monitoring,evaluation

Objectives
Adaptation

Figure 22 Processes in an adaptation measure(partially modified from Klein et al., 1999)

43

2.2.2 Specific Elements that Make up Wise Adaptation(1) Promotion of regional vulnerability assessments
In implementing adaptation measures for climate change, it would be difficult to call the
supplementation or expansion of a program in a way that just treats the symptoms “effective
and efficient adaptation”. What is needed is to systematically implement scientificallyrational supplements and reviews of programs based on vulnerability assessments associatedwith climate change. It also needs to be kept in mind that it is possible that, as the result of aregional vulnerability assessment, it may be necessary to review the order of priority
between program areas or the priority of regions within a single program.
In vulnerability assessments, it is also important to develop methods that are used inassessing vulnerability and risks, by utilizing information that exists locally. In particular, inleast developed countries (LDC) and other such regions, it is important to secure thefoundation for livelihood and achieve sustainable development by implementing adaptation
measures that are based on appropriate vulnerability assessments and in a way that iscentered on grassroots-level communities.
(2) Monitoring, and adoption of early warning systems that utilize monitoring
Monitoring the impacts of climate change is important for the regional vulnerability
assessments raised in the preceding paragraph. Monitoring technologies and systems need
to be developed which enable a more detailed understanding and assessment, such as thewide-area comprehension of data to allow a consistent assessment across an entire region,and the identification of fluctuations on a seasonal or daily basis.
Furthermore, in both Japan and developing countries alike, the introduction of systems thatprovide early warnings to the general public by making use of the data and information
obtained through monitoring are important initiatives. In particular, responses such as
issuing warnings against ensuing damage are effective ways of coping with the effects
caused by extreme events. One of the premises for adopting these kinds of early warning
systems is that it is necessary to clarify the level for a specific indicator at which damage
will be realized.
In some cases, it takes time for positive effects to be produced from non-structural measures,such as monitoring and the development and introduction of early warning systems. In
order to implement more effective and efficient adaptation from a long-term perspective,these kinds of non-structural measures need to be emphasized, and care needs to be taken sothat structural programs that just treat symptoms are not simply rushed offhandedly.

44

(3) Utilization of a diverse range of options
Usually, there are various options for adaptation measures. Whilst there is infrastructuredevelopment and other structural measures on the one hand, there are also non-structural
measures on the other. By focusing on the approaches of adaptation measures, we candivide the measures into several categories, including: technical measures, legal systemdevelopment, insurance and other economical techniques, information preparation, andhuman resources development. Furthermore, in terms of the relationship between wheneffects are felt and when adaptation measures are implemented, there are those adaptation
measures that are implemented preventively in order to minimize damage, and there arethose that prepare for responses after damage has been suffered. From the perspective ofrisk management, we can also view adaptation measures as being divided between
fundamental risk avoidance measures and risk mitigation measures, risk transfer measures,etc.
For example, in the disaster prevention sector, adaptation measures can be broadly divided
into: protection, accommodation and retreat. Protection refers to preventing damage bymeans of structures, etc. In areas with high concentrations of people or assets, a high levelof protection is needed against storm surges. Accommodation refers to such acts as devising
life styles and building structures, or improving retreat systems through the production of
hazard maps. Accommodation can be effective in situations where otherwise implementing
protection is unrealistic in terms of costs, etc., or where there are concerns for the impact on
the natural environment. Retreat refers to withdrawing from very sparsely populated areas
without protection, and accepting high tides and coastal erosion, leaving nature to run its
course. These measures are not merely adopted in an exclusive fashion: it is important to
aim for a two-pronged or three-pronged combination of measures to protect against andmitigate the effects of disasters.
In wise adaptation, it is important to effectively combine and utilize adaptation measuresaccording to time, place and opportunity, by systematically organizing the various options
for adaptation measures in this way, and considering the applicability of effective options
used in other areas from a cross-sectoral viewpoint.

45

(4) Utilization of both long-term and short-term perspectives
In recent years, with the melting of sea ice at the North Pole and other events, certain
phenomena have been identified which suggest that the speed at which climate change isadvancing is considerably faster than previously imagined.

Furthermore, numerous

phenomena have been observed which predict that the occurrence of extreme weather eventsin various parts of the world will increase in frequency as climate change advances. In thissituation, we need to adopt a short-term viewpoint focused a few years into the future, andimplement adaptation measures by making decisions with existing scientific knowledge andwithin a range of uncertainty.
On the other hand, adaptation measures for climate change also have certain elements that
reshape territories and local communities on a comprehensive and long-term basis.
Therefore, we also need to focus on responses from a long-term perspective, which are
related to such issues as urban planning and social infrastructure development.
In implementing adaptation measures, it is important to look at both long-term responses
and short-term responses, and to implement those adaptation measures that are necessary
from each respective view in a way that, overall, measures are effective and efficient.
(5) Utilization of observation results, and introduction of adaptation measures that
ensure a certain degree of clearance
Climate scenarios and the projected impacts in each sector involve uncertainty. In cases
where a long-term adaptation plan has been formulated based on these scenarios andprojections, then ultimately, at a certain point in formulating the adaptation plan, there is arisk that the previous investment will have been in vain and that inevitably the plan will
have to be changed if predicted values are revised according to projections based on newscientific knowledge. Furthermore, with adaptation plans that are based on projections
premised on uncertainty, there are difficulties in obtaining a consensus among the parties
concerned, and if a situation arises that is more serious than first predicted, it is possible thatbudgetary and other measures will not be enough, and the response to the situation will be
too late.
Based on this perspective, then for effective and efficient adaptation, rather than adaptation
measures that rely too much on projections, more effective measures are those which
maximize the use of previous observation results and which always ensure a certain degreeof allowance by adding to the amount of change observed.
For example, in the protection against disasters sector, a possible approach would be to,when replacing structures or when carrying out post-disaster restoration, first design
structures by incorporating the sea level rise that has actually been observed in the past, and46

then when making further subsequent replacements, since climate change phenomena will
have become clearer, as well as actual sea level rises, also incorporate into the designs theamount by which sea levels are projected to rise during the lifetime of the structure. In
addition to preventing overinvestment and contributing to the facilitation of consensusbuilding among the parties concerned, this kind of approach can be perceived as being arealistic method that gradually “accommodates coastal structures to climate change” withcertainty that the measures will not be too late.
This approach of adopting adaptation measures which utilize observation results and which
ensure a certain degree of clearance could also be applied to other sectors besides theprotection against disasters sector.
(6) Mainstreaming of adaptation
In the field of development assistance, there is a concept called “mainstreaming adaptation”,
whereby, rather than drawing up a new policy or program for adaptation, it is incorporated
into existing policies and plans as a matter for consideration.

Hardly any adaptation

measures are implemented only for the purpose of dealing with climate change: they aremostly implemented as part of, for instance, water resources management, coastal protection,
disaster prevention plans, and programs for the prevention of infectious diseases. In actual
fact, there is already a wealth of experience in these fields related to various measuresagainst natural changes.
Domestically in Japan as well, it is important that the perspective of adaptation to climatechange be incorporated into such plans and policies as land-use plans, urban plans,
agricultural policies, nature conservation policies and local government environmental
policies.

In developing countries, although arguments in recent years have tended toquestion the need for new activities and funding related to adaptation, similarly, in line withthe philosophy of mainstreaming, efforts need to be made for the effective use of all
resources by implementing additional adaptation measures for existing countermeasures andfunds.
In order to realize “mainstreaming”, it is vital that persons in Japan responsible for policy
areas other than climate change, and persons in developing countries responsible fordevelopment assistance hold a view for adaptation and put it into practical use at theworking level. It is also important that there be human resources development and publicawareness policies to enable this. Furthermore, recipients of assistance need to be preparedso that climate change experts can travel to the development field and put their expertise tobest use.

47

(7) Effective and efficient realization of low-vulnerability “systems with flexible response
capacity”
Given both long-term and short-term perspectives, the ultimate objective of “wiseadaptation” is not adaptation that just treats the symptoms of climate change; but rather thebuilding of “systems that have flexible response capacity” to climate change, whereby thepotential vulnerability of the various systems to the impacts of climate change are mitigated
and their character improved.
For example, water resources are used in a variety of areas, including in household andagriculture. By improving the current water utilization system so that water can be arranged
flexibly in times of crisis, improvements can be made to the system so that it has a higher
adaptive capacity.

The review of actual urban structures coupled with heat island

countermeasures also has the potential to make a low-vulnerability system architecture.
Furthermore, in the natural ecosystems sector, converting artificial forests to natural forests,
and securing ecological corridors and refugia will lead to the protection of ecosystems thatcan withstand the impacts of climate change, and will contribute significantly to the actual
preservation of biodiversity.
(8) Promotion of co-benefit-type adaptation
It is preferable that adaptation measures can bring co-benefits for local environment, society,economy or mitigation of climate change as well as realization of its own objective. If cobenefits are expected, the cost for the adaptation measure can be discounted.
For example, tree planting is a beneficial measure for mitigation (sequestration of CO2),
prevention of disasters, securing of water resource, conservation of biodiversity, andenhancement of amenity as well as adaptation. If the measures implemented so far originallyfor other purposes (ex. measures for raising the rate of food self-support, desalinization ofsea water in drought-prone areas, establishment of natural sanctuaries, surveillance of
infectious diseases etc.) can have benefits of adaptation, they also can be referred to as cobeneficial adaptation measures. It should be noted that on the contrary, the adaptation
measures that cause a great amount of greenhouse gas emissions or other environmental
and/or socio-economic problems are not recommended.
(9) Improvement of society-wide adaptive capacity by utilizing insurance and othereconomic systems
Insurance and other economic systems are effective as mechanisms for diversifying andtransferring the risks related to the damage caused to buildings and agricultural products byfloods and typhoons associated with climate change.

These mechanisms need to beinstitutionalized and their use promoted as a measure for improving the adaptive capacity of48

society as a whole, referring to weather derivatives and other systems that are already in use,
for their operation..
(10) Development of systems of cooperation and coalition with relevant organizations
As previously mentioned, the impacts of climate change are wide ranging, and they canspread to secondary and tertiary effects in various aspects of people’s lives. Accordingly, in
implementing adaptation measures, cross-sectoral systems also need to be built.

For

example, just as with the organization of a committee on heatstroke to liaise between therelevant ministries and agencies, coordination between relevant organizations may be
important.
With regard to assistance for developing countries, it is important for there to becoordination between such organizations as the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA), which is involved in implementing assistance, and the researchers andenvironmental administrations that provide knowledge and views on climate change, as well
as local government organizations, research institutions, NGOs, local communities,
international organizations such as the United Nations, and regional organizations such as
the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the South Pacific Regional Environment
Programme (SPREP).
(11) Promotion of voluntary initiatives through entities that allow for a detailed
approach at the local site
Since the types and scale of impacts attributable to climate change vary significantly
depending on the geographical characteristics of the affected area, with adaptation measuresthat are to be adopted to counter such effects, independent field investigations and local
initiatives are important, even more so than in the case of emissions reductions.
Consequently, in addition to just the central government and big businesses, individuals,
communities, local governments, primary industry workers and small and medium-sizedenterprises need to have a good understanding themselves of the impacts of, and adaptation
to, climate change, and they need to voluntarily engage in detailed initiatives at the local
level.
(12) Development of human resources
Given that not enough progress has necessarily been made in understanding adaptation
measures, going forward: capacity building of experts will need to conduct research on theimpacts and adaptation measures in each sector, and who can implement the measures;
advisors and facilitators will need to be trained who can communicate to a wide range ofentities the significance of adaptation measures and their specific means of implementation49

in a way that is easy to understand; and there will need to be effective public awarenesspolicies that stimulate the various bodies into conducting their own initiatives.
Moreover, especially in cases where wide-area vulnerability assessments are to be
conducted in different areas, monitoring methods that cover a large area using volunteers
and others who have acquired a certain level of knowledge and skills, for instance, may
prove effective depending on the sector.

There needs to be active promotion of thedevelopment of standardized techniques for this type of monitoring, the training ofvolunteers and others, and the development and utilization of vulnerability assessment
techniques that are able to make the best use of those volunteers.
In some cases, it might take time before the development of human resources produces aneffect. Even still, effort for these non-structural measures is important for more efficient andeffective adaptation.

50

2.2.3 Perspectives for Assessing Wise Adaptation
In encouraging the implementation of wise adaptation, there will need to be perspectives forassessing which adaptation is “wise adaptation”. In view of the specific elements that makeup wise adaptation, which were indicated in section 2.2.2, it is also conceivable to assess theappropriateness of adaptation measures by supposing a number of assessment perspectives
like those below for instance.
Table 1 Example of assessing wise adaptation
Technology
perspective• Have a diverse range of options been examined and employed?
• In instances that involve uncertainty in the projections, have observation results••

Policyperspective

•
•
•
•

Socioeconomic
perspective

been used in examining the measures?
Has a certain degree of allowance premised on the uncertainty of projections been
secured in the adaptation measures?
Have non-structural measures been appropriately incorporated, such as any
necessary monitoring and human resources development?
Have systems of cooperation and alliance with relevant organizations beendeveloped?
Have measures been considered from both long-term and short-term perspectives?
Have efforts been made for mainstreaming adaptation?
(Has adaptation been incorporated into existing programs? …)
Has consideration been given to responses for extreme weather and otherunexpected impacts?
(Have systems been developed that appropriately predict disasters before they
strike? …)• Have voluntary initiatives been incorporated, run by entities that allow for a

detailed approach at the coalface?
• Have the results of regional vulnerability assessments been taken into account?
• Have appropriate economic systems been prepared, such as compensation fordamage?

One already existing example related to the assessment of adaptation is the Assessment &Design for Adaptation to Climate Change (ADAPT). ADAPT is a tool for assessing anddesigning adaptation to climate change, and was released as a prototype by the World Bankin 2007. It identifies risks attributable to climate change at the planning and design stage of
agricultural and natural resources management projects, and covers sectors in South Asia
and Sub-Saharan Africa. ADAPT is an Excel-based system that was designed simply to be
used by policymakers and others, and it allows them to select adaptation measures andimportant points corresponding to the characteristics of the region in question by entering
the necessary information in dialogue form. The ADAPT tool refers to weather trends
produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Earth Simulator.
In this way, it is hoped that various assessment techniques and tools will be developed
which reflect the characteristics of regions and sectors, and which are easy for a range of51

users to use.

2.2.4 Main Options for Adaptation Measures
On the whole, there are various options for adaptation measures. In some cases, they can be
combined to complement measures, and in other cases, selections are required in order toachieve more wise adaptation.
In this section, based on the review findings of each working group, we have categorized themain options for adaptation measures into “technology”, “policy” and “social andeconomic” options.
[Technology options]
These are options that relate to technology and to information and knowledge.
Options related to technology promote the development and use of individual
countermeasure technologies, as well as the development and use of technologies involvedin the formulation of comprehensive plans, etc.

Options related to information andknowledge promote the building and use of monitoring, early warning systems anddatabases.
[Policy options]
These are options that relate to legal systems and human resources.
Options related to legal systems improve and review laws, regulations and various kinds ofsystems, and also contribute to the promotion of all technology options and social andeconomic options, etc. Options related to human resources promote the nurturing and skills
development of experts, and raising the awareness of decision-makers and the general public.
[Social and economic options]
These are options that relate to economic and social systems.
Options related to economic systems make use of techniques that utilize insurance, grants,
taxes or other types of economic incentives. Options related to social systems promote
initiatives related to customs and culture, and the building and review of other social
mechanisms, etc.
The following table shows specific examples of technology, policy and social/economic
options for each sector.
This table shows options that could be considered as adaptation measures to counter theeffects of climate change.

The table is shown for reference, and is necessarily arecommendation that these measures be adopted. When making actual selections, measuresneed to be examined with consideration given to the various conditions and constraints of52

the region in question.
The “Adaptation Measures Menu and Associated System” section in the sector-specificchapters in Part II contains details of the optional adaptation measures for each sector aswell as other options that are not listed here. It also covers the philosophy behind selecting
and implementing adaptation measures in each sector.
Table 2 Examples of the Options for Adaptation Measures
OptionSectorFoodTechnology options
Technology• Development and introduction of high-temperature-tolerantvarieties

Information and knowledge• Collection and organization of information frompromoters of agricultural improvement• Shift in cultivation areas• Change in cultivation methods• Controlling feedlot environments• Shift in aqua culture areas, and development of aqua
culture technologies
Water
Environment
and Water
Resources• Introduction of raw water transmission and discharge
control systems as a drought measure• Desalination of sea water• Use of treated sewage water and rainwater, etc.
• Prevention measures against groundwater salinization• Eutrophication control measures (blue-green algae fences,etc.)• Dissemination of water-saving devices• Overall evaluation of the characteristics ofsources of drinking water, and the selection ofsuitable water-purification processes

NaturalEcosystems• Designation and preservation of refugia• Establishing corridors• Conversion of artificial cedar forests to natural forests• Early detection and prevention of pine wilt
• Installation of deer fences in alpine regions, etc.
• Reduction in nutritive salts and other environmental load
substances• Development of monitoring systems for eachecosystem

DisasterPrevention
and Large
Coastal
Cities• Alterations in architectural styles, etc.
• Maintenance and improvement of coastal protection
facilities• Enhancement of drainage systems• Development of super levees with multiple function• Effective utilization of existing facilities and extension of
their lifetime• Comprehensive sediment control in rivers and coasts• Reorganization of dam systems• Production and distribution of hazard maps
• Provision of information (utilizing the web, etc.)• Upgrading monitoring systems (long-termmonitoring, real-time monitoring)

Health• Development of vaccines and new medicines for infectious
diseases• Removal of suitable condition for emergence of vector
mosquitoes, larval control• Suspending the emissions of air pollutants (to counter the
climate change effects on air pollution)• Production and distribution of health care guidemanuals for heat stroke, etc.
• Thorough surveillance of infectious diseases• Surveys on the incidence and distribution ofvectors

Citizen’s
Life and
Urban Life

• Strengthening buildings to mitigate damage caused bydisasters• Utilization of heat-blocking and heat-insulating paints and• Provision and utilization of hazard maps, etc.
• Provision and utilization of heat stroke alert
information, etc.

53building materials, etc.
• Removal of suitable condition for emergence of vector
mosquitoes and harmful insects• Promotion of tree-planting
Developing
Countries• Agriculture: changes in irrigation areas and systems• Water resources: collection of rainwater, prevention ofsoil erosion• Ecosystems: reduction of habitat fragmentation,
establishment of corridors and buffer zones• Disaster prevention and coasts: protection of wetlands,
artificial drawdown of glacier lakes• Health: improvement of health facilities, application oftechnical solution to prevent vector-borne diseases• Agriculture: Provision of weather forecast
information• Water resources: water resource monitoring toreadjust national plans.
• Ecosystems: monitoring of vulnerable
ecosystems• Disaster prevention: and coasts enhancement ofearly warning systems for weather and hydrology
services

Note: With regard to the adaptation measures for citizen’s life and urban life sector, since adaptation measures inwhich citizens and local government can get involved have been extracted from the measures in othersectors, there may be overlaps with adaptation measures given for other sectors.

54

Table 2 Specific examples of the main options for adaptation measures(continued)
OptionSectorFood

Water
Environment
and
Water
Resources

NaturalEcosystems

DisasterPrevention
and large
Coastal
Cities

Policy options
Legal systems
Human resources• Provision of• Development of
information and humanmechanisms to support
resources development
and advise on
to promoters ofadaptation measures for
agricultural
elderly farmers
improvement and• Adjustment of fishingfarming advisors.
seasons to suit fish
migration routes andfishing groundformation• Raising of water-saving• Improvement of waterawareness
supply (conversion
from agricultural waterto drinking water basedon decrease of arable
lands)• Restriction of deep
groundwater pumping
to control land
subsidence• Training of volunteers• Reconsideration andwith knowledge andnew designation ofskills who are able tonature preserves,
cooperate in monitoring
national parks etc.
• Awareness raising• Regulations ofregarding treading
artificial transplantationpressure reduction on
and fish release
alpine flora and in• Restrictions on tourist
wetlands, andactivities
protection of coral reefs• Changes and regulation • Implementation oftraining and educationof land use based onof disaster prevention
disaster prevention(i.e., relocation of
housing, prohibitions
and restrictions on
construction in danger
zones)• Integrated coastal zone
management

55

Social and economic options
Social systems
Economic systems• Utilization of mutual• Reconsideration ofaid systems (quick
irrigation customs as aprovision of damage
result of changes in
information, and using
cropping seasons andthe information indelayed drainage
compensation claims)
seasons• Intensification of
farmland, andreallocation of waterrights• Introduction of
mechanisms or regional
flexible transfer ofwater during droughts• Indirect controls using
economic instruments,
such as a levy system in
regulations for the useof deep groundwater (tocontrol land
subsidence)• Consensus-building
among relevant entities
regarding theidentification of andresponse to climatechange impacts• Establishment ofvoluntary organizations
for disaster prevention• Establishment of asystem of inundation
insurance for residents• Establishment of funds
and subsidies for postdisaster restoration

HealthCitizen’s
Life and
Urban Life• Establishment ofinstitutions andregulations for heatstroke prevention.
• Care for elderly
households (i.e.,
utilization of caresystems, and careprovided byneighborhood
associations or
volunteers, etc)
• Heat-related
countermeasures for theelderly, etc. (utilizationof neighborhood
associations andnursing-care systems)• “Cool Biz” campaigns• Daylight saving time
• Agriculture:establishment of grain
banks• Water resources:development of water
resources; flood, anddrought control systems• Ecosystems:
enhancement of forest
management• Disaster prevention:and coasts: preparationof risk management
plans against sea level
rise• Health: Public healthpolicies that recognize
climate risks• Capacity development
for prevention planningfor the control of vector
mosquitoes• Raising of publicawareness on healthcare• Support for initiatives atworkplaces and schools• Implementation of e
training and educationof disaster prevention• Establishment ofvoluntary organizations
for disaster prevention• Reduction of theextreme weather risk
using weather
derivatives• Agriculture: crop
species insurance;
providing preferential
tax treatment andsubsidies• Water resources: bankloans for the purchaseof rainwater storagetanks• Ecosystems:
management policies
that include
socioeconomic factors• Disaster prevention andcoasts: review ofoptions such as
insurance that deals
with climatic damage• Industry: diversificationof tourism resources
and revenue sources
Note: With regard to the adaptation measures for citizen’s life and urban life sector, since adaptation measures inwhich citizens and local government can get involved have been extracted from the measures in othersectors, there may be overlaps with adaptation measures given for other sectors.

Developing
Countries• Agriculture: educationand implementation
programs on theconservation andmanagement of soil andwater• Ecosystems: capacity
building fororganizations toregulate land-use

56• Health: improvement ofpublic education andliteracy rates

2.2.5 Points of Concern when Promoting Wise Adaptation(1) Consideration of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation
We must be mindful of the fact that implementing adaptation measures may sometimes leadto increases in the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and may sometimes leads todecreases.
Examples of measures that have the potential to bring about increases in greenhouse gas
emissions include the excessive use of air conditioners to accommodate heat waves, and theuse of water coolers in the aquaculture industry to address rising ocean temperatures. On
the other hand, examples of measures that have the potential to contribute to decreases ingreenhouse gas emissions include heat-insulation reforms for buildings, forest management,using rainwater, and the “Cool Biz” campaign.
Adaptation measures that also entail significant mitigation effects should be especiallyendorsed as a co-benefit type of adaptation, whereas those adaptation measures that involvea considerable increase in emissions need to be curtailed as much as possible. However,given that it is also possible to have adaptation measures which need to be implemented
urgently for the sake of securing safety or maintaining life even though they may result inincreased emissions, it is important to deal with each measure flexibly on a case-by-casebasis and in line with the endemic conditions, etc.
With regard to mitigation and adaptation in vulnerable developing countries, given that: (1)the primary causes of climate change are the previous greenhouse gas emissions resulting
from the development of advanced nations and the present and future greenhouse gas
emissions from China, India and other developing countries with comparative economic
strength; and (2) small island nations and other particularly vulnerable developing countries
are one-sided victims, and their own greenhouse gas emissions are relatively insignificant;emphasis should first be put on adaptation.
(2) Sharing of existing examples and policies which can be drawn upon as adaptation
measures
There are already a number of specific adaptation measures that are underway in Japan,
including: the installation of thermometers in gymnasiums for the prevention of heatstroke,
the utilization of heat-blocking materials in facilities improvements, and checks by local
residents of pools and waterholes where mosquitoes tend to concentrate with the object ofpreventing infectious diseases. There are also examples of measures and policies which,although not necessarily designed for adaptation to climate change, turn out to potentiallyhave the same effect. Some examples of policies and measures, including those that boost
the resilience of society as a whole (awareness-raising, early warnings, voluntaryevacuations, insurance, etc.), could prove to be useful as adaptation measures. Collecting,57

accumulating and broadly communicating these kinds of existing cases and policies will beeffective in promoting future initiatives.
The section entitled “Examples and Policies that Can be Drawn upon as Adaptation
Measures” in the sector-specific chapters in Part II of this Report introduce specific casesand policies in each sector. It is hoped that these examples will also be of reference inreviewing and promoting future initiatives.
(3) Need for further review of the effectiveness of adaptation measures and theirappropriateness from a comprehensive perspective
With regard to the effectiveness of individual adaptation measures and their appropriatenesswhen viewed from a comprehensive perspective, there are some cases which still require
discussion. As well as addressing these cases as research topics in the future, it appears that
there needs to be an exchange of views between a wide range of entities, such as experts,
policy makers and citizens.
(Examples)•

Food sector: What are considered as the effects of adaptation? (For example: Is it
alright to ignore quality so long as yield increases?) What is considered as effective
adaptation? (For example: If apples are introduced into Hokkaido in line with the shift
in areas best suited for them, can this be described as good adaptation?)•

Natural ecosystems sector: Can artificially relocating an organism as a measure tocounter the impacts of climate change be described as an appropriate adaptation
measure?

Moreover, is this technologically possible?

(For example: Instead of

relocating just one certain species, is relocating other related species as well in an
integrated fashion realistic?)

58

2.3 Barriers to Adaptation

Adaptation involves suitable procedures, costs, technical difficulties and various otherfactors, and implementing adaptation is by no way a simple exercise. As well as sorting out
the specific barriers identified to date which hinder adaptation, there needs to be researchand studies promoted on the realistic possibility of applying adaptation measures in the field
and on effective measures to break through the barriers.
The section entitled “Barriers to Implementing Adaptation Measures” in the sector-specificchapters in Part II describes in greater detail the barriers to adaptation in each sector.

2.3.1 Barriers related to technology● Most individual adaptation technologies require ongoing research and development.
Many of the individual adaptation technologies in each sector are yet to become
technologically established, and still require ongoing research and development.

The

technologies are wide ranging, for example: the development of new varieties andcultivation methods in the food sector; the development of techniques for converting
artificial forests into natural forests in the natural ecosystems sector; the development andmaintenance of disaster prediction systems in the protection against disasters sector; and thedevelopment of new methods for treating infectious diseases, including the development ofvaccines, in the health sector. Still more research and development is needed for theseadaptation technologies.
● Using the latest technology based on regional characteristics is essential, especiallyfor assistance to developing countries
In the support for adaptation measures for developing countries, although the introduction,for instance, of a disaster prediction system in the protection against disasters sector could
be regarded as a support measure, in reality, such a system could not be used in regions
where information systems have not yet been developed. First, we need to distinguishbetween cases which can be addressed using Japan’s latest science and technology, andcases which require technology that is better suited to regional characteristics, etc. We alsoneed to promote research and development on how best to select the ideal technologies, andon specific technologies and techniques that are anticipated according to regional
characteristics, etc.

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2.3.2 Barriers related to information and knowledge● There is not enough accumulating and sharing of data, information and researchfindings.
Even in developed countries like Japan, it is conceivable that problems might be overlooked
due to a lack of knowledge related to the impacts of climate change, for instance, knowledge
on infectious diseases, eutrophication, impacts on air pollution and changes in river flows
related to snowfalls. More data and information on this type of currently insufficientknowledge needs to be accumulated and studied.
Furthermore, even the data, information and research findings that do exist on the impacts ofclimate change, vulnerability and adaptation measures may not necessarily have been
accumulated systematically, and may not necessarily have been provided in a form that iseasy for policymakers to use. Unless data, information and research findings are shared, inthe future, this may potentially be a substantial barrier if adaptation measures are needed to
be formulated and implemented rapidly. Consequently, it is important that researchers andpolicymakers cooperate in the accumulation and sharing of data, information and researchfindings.
● Progress has not been made enough in the development and utilization ofvulnerability assessment tools and early warning systems.
Tools for assessing regional vulnerability are essential for reviewing the order of priority
between program areas and the priority of regions within a single program. However, atpresent, tools have not yet been developed which enable vulnerability assessments that take
into account the natural and social conditions of a region. With regard to hazard maps,
heatstroke alerts and other systems that provide early warnings, while there are someexamples of such systems being developed and used, in this case as well, it could hardly beargued that their permeation into society has been widespread.

Both in Japan and indeveloping countries, these tools and systems are essential for the formation of social
systems which can secure the foundations for people’s everyday lives and which can
flexibly respond to climate change.

Vulnerability assessment tools and early warning

systems need to be developed and their use promoted.

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2.3.3 Barriers related to legal systems● There are not enough systems and mechanisms for addressing adaptation with a“whole of region” and “whole of industry” approach.
Adaptation is a challenge that must be tackled with regions working as one and withindustries working as one; but at present, not enough systems and mechanisms have beendeveloped which allow this.
An example of an adaptation measure in the health sector is the care for households where
only elderly people live. In order to provide the care more efficiently and effectively, it
could be effectual to build a mechanism that works hand-in-hand with existing nursing-caresystems, or possibly to build a system of care that integrates the entire community bysecuring the cooperation of neighborhood associations and volunteers. Going forward,
consideration needs to be given to these kinds of new systems and mechanisms that cancontribute to the implementation of wise adaptation, and for this purpose, research isessential not only in natural science aspects, but in social science aspects as well.
● Barriers may arise from existing systems not addressing climate change.
Some kind of barrier may be produced in cases where existing legal systems have not given
due consideration to addressing climate change. For example, in the water resources sector,
in some instances, conventional water rights and previously established designated waterrights may act as barriers to realizing a flexible water supply system that deals with the riskof drought. In the protection against disasters sector as well, in some cases, existing landuse regulations and existing systems related to the restoration of buildings to their original
condition after a disaster may also act as barriers to building safe local communities that are
resilient to disasters. It is important that a perspective of adaptation to climate change be
added to existing systems and that necessary reviews take place.

612.3.4 Barriers related to human resources development● An infrastructure has not yet been fully developed for raising the awareness ofdecision-makers and the general public.
Examples of barriers to adaptation include: insufficient knowledge related to impacts andadaptation measures; insufficient information for rendering and communicating specialist
knowledge in a form that is easy for the public to understand; and the lack of a developed
infrastructure for broadly disseminating this knowledge and information. Furthermore,compared to mitigation measures, the public has a lower level of understanding andawareness of the need and substance of adaptation measures, and so further dissemination ofknowledge is important.
Moreover, in some least developed countries (LDC) etc., the phenomenon of climate change
itself is not well understood even at the policymaker level. Thus, the dissemination of
information is the most pressing need for the promotion of adaptation measures. Also, theLDCs may not necessarily fully understand the methods for using sophisticated simulation
models, etc. provided under the guidance of developed countries, and the models may not
used in the actual policy decisions.
● There are shortages of experts, advisors and other human resources.
Insufficient human resources are also a barrier to adaptation: for instance, a shortage ofexperts to conduct research on the impacts and adaptation measures in each sector, and ashortage of advisors and facilitators to communicate to a wide range of entities thesignificance of adaptation measures and their specific means of implementation in a waythat is easy to understand.
For example, in the health sector, the scarcity of experts in infectious disease vectors has
been raised as a problem, and so the development of these experts is a matter requiring
immediate attention. Also, in the national lifestyles sector, as with energy saving diagnoses,
etc. in mitigation measures, human resources need to be developed who are able to provide
advice on adaptation measures (vulnerability diagnosis, proposal of appropriate adaptation
measures, etc.) to individuals, communities, businesses and local governments, etc.

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2.3.5 Economic barriers● There is a lack of fair assessments of the costs involved in adaptation.
In implementing adaptation measures, by assessing the cumulative costs related to damage
that would be caused by climate change if the adaptation measures were not implemented,
and by comparing them to the costs of the adaptation measures needed to prevent thatdamage from occurring, it should be possible to make a rough determination of whether
those adaptation measures should be implemented. However, in reality, estimating the costsof damage is difficult, and particularly in cases where values which are difficult to quantify
are omitted from the calculations, damages tend to be underestimated, and in the end, theneed for the adaptation measures lacks conviction and no progress is made in implementing
them. Furthermore, in cases where the damages are enormous, there is often an impressionthat the funds required for the adaptation measures will also be extensive, but in actual fact,by selecting effective and efficient adaptation measure options, adaptation is sometimes
possible without the need for vast funds.
Research needs to be promoted on the fair assessment of costs involved in adaptation(assessment of both the costs of damage and the costs involved in adaptation).
● Economic instruments and systems related to the arrangement and procurement offunds needed for adaptation have not yet been fully developed.
With respect to the arrangement and procurement of funds needed for adaptation, some kindof economic instrument or system is important, such as a subsidy system, insurance or othertype of preventive mechanism, or income compensation or other such ex-post relief measure.
For example, in the agriculture, livestock and fishing industries, businesses tend to be small,and so it is likely that funding the capital expenditure needed for adaptation would be
economically difficult. Therefore, subsidy systems and the like need to be provided. In
cases such as heat waves, seeing as there is a chance that agricultural produce would sustain
large-scale damage, thereby dealing a massive blow to the operation of farms, systems need
to be prepared which use insurance and other economic instruments to enable stable farmmanagement.

Moreover, if a large-scale disaster caused by extreme weather strikes,

developed and developing countries alike need enormous funds for reconstruction, and so
consideration needs to be given for income compensation and other measures. Since thesekinds of economic instruments and systems have not yet been fully developed, researchneeds to be promoted on precedents and effective instruments and systems.

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● In most cases, the developing countries that most need the adaptation measures do
not have adequate financial resources.
Usually, the countries that most suffer the impacts of climate change are the highly
vulnerable developing countries. However, these developing countries do not have enoughfinancial resources to implement adaptation measures. The problem of financing adaptationin developing countries was also taken up as an important topic at the Conference of theParties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Research needs
to be promoted on international assistance for the shortage of funds in developing countries.

2.3.6 Social barriers● There are insufficient consensus-building mechanisms related to understanding andresponding to impacts.
Since the impacts of climate change are closely related to people’s livelihoods and to
economic activities, we can suppose that there will be differences in thinking and conflictsof interest between regions, generations and sectors regarding how the impacts should beunderstood and dealt with. No mechanisms have yet been prepared for facilitating social
consensus-building on these kinds of impacts of, and adaptations to, climate change.
Therefore, in the future, this kind of consensus-building mechanism will also need to bebuilt.

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3. Future Challenges

The objectives of this Report are to clarify the latest scientific knowledge in Japan on theimpacts of, and adaptation to, climate change, and to present the concept of “wise adaptation”
and the direction for future research. The Report presents a summary based on the reviews
conducted by the Committee and the working groups comprised of experts from various fieldsof study.
In view of this Report, the future challenges are outlined below. The “Future Challenges”
section in the sector-specific chapters in Part II describes more detailed research topics ineach sector.

● Implementation of adaptation measures based on scientific assessment, and theaccumulation and sharing of the relevant data, information and research findings
In order to mitigate or avoid as much as possible the risks of adverse impacts brought about
by climate change, adaptation measures need to be implemented effectively and efficiently,that is, “wise adaptation” is required. Keeping in mind the facts that the sectors and regions
subject to adaptation and the substance of the measures are wide ranging, and that themeasures will be implemented over a long period of time, in order to maximize the long-term
benefits obtained by the nation through adaptation, the sectors and regions to be preferentially
adapted need to be clarified, the details of the measures need to be scrutinized, and thevaluable financial and human resources need to be allocated optimally.
In order to realize wise adaptation, it is essential to enhance the research and monitoring of
the climate change impacts and vulnerability in each sector and in each region. In addition,highly reliable projections are needed for future temperatures, precipitation amounts,
precipitation patterns, snowfalls, and extreme events, etc. accompanying the advance ofclimate change.
In order to preventively mitigate or avoid future damage, it will be necessary to implement
adaptation measures based on scientific assessments as mentioned above. However, withregard to projections, the optimal allocation of resources, etc. will need to be taken into
account in a comprehensive manner, while standing by the “precautionary principle” andrecognizing that projections involve uncertainty.
Furthermore, so that scientific knowledge and assessments can be fully utilized in theplanning of adaptation measures, necessary data, information and research findings need to beaccumulated systematically, and provided in a form that is easy for policymakers to use. It is
hoped that researchers and policymakers will cooperate in the accumulation and sharing of
this necessary information.

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● Learning from past examples, and incorporating the adaptation viewpoint into
various policies
When considering future adaptations, it is also useful to learn from corresponding cases thathave been implemented in the past for natural disasters, such as damage caused by droughts
or high tides, etc. It is often the case that many adaptation measures associated with climatechange have been incorporated into existing social systems as courses of action forconventional natural changes. With regard to not only these adaptation measures, but also to
new projected impacts and their related adaptation measures, their consistency with existing
initiatives needs to be increased by incorporating the viewpoints of the impacts of, andadaptation to, climate change into land-use plans, urban plans, agricultural policies, nature
conservation policies, basic environment plans and climate change countermeasure area
promotion plans, etc. Doing so enables systematic and integrative measures to be taken, suchas implementing necessary adaptation measures, for instance, by flexibly revising the various
kinds of standards that are affected by changes in climate, or by making the most ofopportunities for city planning, urban renewal or the redevelopment of obsolete infrastructure,etc.

● Systematic promotion of adaptation measures that should be implemented
immediately
Some impacts of climate change have already become obvious at the present time. For someof these impacts, we now need to urgently promote the implementation of adaptation
measures (for example: tangerine farmers, rice growers in Kyushu, etc.).
Although, on this occasion, the Committee has not fully considered specific adaptation
measures that ought to be implemented urgently, in terms of the next topic for review, withreference to the opinions presented in this Report, as well as reviews in each sector, generaland specific adaptation plans will need to be established at the country/region level, and asystem will need to be built to put these plans into effect as required. As a basis for preparing
these plans, in addition to monitoring that is related to the changes in climate systems, anurgent issue is to enhance the currently scarce monitoring and surveillance of climate change
impacts.

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● Establishment of an ongoing review structure, and periodic communication ofreview findings
In this review, by means of the working groups comprised of experts from various fields ofstudy, we organized the existing scientific knowledge on impacts and adaptation, and wereviewed how adaptation should be as well as directions for future research. Research on theimpacts of, and adaptation to, climate change is an area of rapid progress. Furthermore,various kinds of large-scale disasters, which are feared to be the impacts of climate change,
are occurring all over the world. Although on this occasion, we focused on reviews by
experts from scientific perspectives, when conducting future reviews, we can expect thatcross-sectoral and more policy-oriented review will be conducted, with a view to securing theparticipation of relevant ministries and agencies.

Furthermore, regularly communicatingthese review findings both in Japan and abroad is a valuable exercise, and in particular, it ishoped that they will contribute to future reviews by the IPCC.

● Ongoing reviews related to adaptation support for developing countries
Given the fact that the majority of greenhouse gases being emitted around the world are
emitted from about 20 countries, we could say that for the remaining 160 or so countries, theissue of global warming is nothing but adaptation measures. Furthermore, compared todeveloped countries, developing countries are more vulnerable; and small islands, the Asianmega-deltas and the African arid areas are particular vulnerable. Accordingly, in the area ofadaptation, developed countries are being strongly urged to provide cooperation.
Amid calls for contributions to the international community, Japan also needs to provide
active support by making the most of its strengths, such as in environmental research and inscience and technology. To this end, Japan launched “Cool Earth Partnership” as a new
funding mechanism in its climate change measures for assistance for developing countries.
Going forward, Japan needs to continue its reviews on support for adaptation in developing
countries so that it can contribute to the implementation of effective and efficient adaptation
measures in developing countries. The results of these reviews are also expected to be apositive input for the relevant ministries promoting the Cool Earth Partnership fund.

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● Promotion of further research on the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change
In the future, in order to implement effective and efficient wise adaptation for those impactsof climate change that are projected to progressively worsen, as well as striving for further
elucidation of such impact mechanisms as the types of weather and natural conditions inwhich impacts become obvious (threshold) and the types of regions and entities that are easily
affected (vulnerability), Japan also needs to improve the spatial and temporal accuracy ofsimulations that make projections, and to proceed with research that will enable appropriate
forecasts. In addition, further research also needs to be promoted on giving shape to wise
adaptation, such as: What kinds of barriers and challenges are there in implementing
adaptation measures, and how can they be overcome? To which geographical areas and inwhich sectors is it effective and efficient to direct limited financial, human and temporal
resources?
Below are research topics that are envisaged at present.
¾

Research topics related to understanding impact mechanisms

At present, impact mechanisms in each sector contain many unexplained parts, and so
research is needed to shed light on these. Possible examples include: in the food sector,
ascertaining the sensitivity of different species to environmental changes; in the water
environment sector, ascertaining the impacts of droughts and floods on the quality of waterat water sources; and in the disaster prevention sector, research on the refinement of
information related to external forces.

Research is also needed not only on naturalelements, but on social elements as well: for example, research in the natural ecosystems
sector on the interaction of human activity with biodiversity and ecosystem services.
¾

Research topics related to methods for predicted impacts

With regard to future projections, as well as continuing to promote research that
contributes to the reduction of uncertainty, research is also needed on techniques for downscaling simulation models from the global level to the regional level so as to contribute to
the prediction of regional impacts. It will also be important that there be research on thedangerous levels of the impacts of climate change in each sector (threshold), and on theassociated indicators.
¾

Research topics related to vulnerability assessment methods

Development is needed for vulnerability assessment methodologies and tools that specify
regions and entities as being vulnerable based on various criteria. In particular, at present,
there are limited examples of vulnerability assessments that go as far as taking into
account the adaptive capacity of society; and so, accumulating data that contributes to theassessment of social adaptive capacity and conducting research on assessment
methodologies that use that data will be important.

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¾

Research topics related to the technology perspective of adaptation measures

There needs to be research and development on individual countermeasure technologies,
monitoring and the building of databases for both natural and social factors, and researchon the development of vulnerability assessment methodologies and tools.
A broad range of research and development is envisaged for individual countermeasuretechnologies, for example: in the food sector, developing varieties that are resistant to hightemperatures, appropriately shift cropping seasons and developing aquaculture technology
to water temperatures; in the water environment and water resources sector, conducting
research on new sources of water supply; in the natural ecosystems sector, developing
technologies for converting artificial forests into natural forests; and in the health sector,
developing vaccines and new remedies for infectious diseases. Moreover, there needs tobe an integrated promotion of monitoring, establishment of databases and development ofvulnerability assessment methodologies and tools so that the data obtained throughmonitoring can be utilized in vulnerability assessments.
¾

Research topics related to the policy perspective of adaptation measures

There needs to be research on how legal systems should be revised and improved, as well
as research on methodologies for human resource and capacity development and onawareness-raising and dissemination techniques.
Examples for research on legal systems include: in the water resources sector, conducting
methodological research on legal restrictions at times of drought, and on the revision of
conventional water rights and designated water rights; and in the protection against
disasters sector, conducting research on how adaptation should be implemented based onland-use regulation.

Examples for research on techniques for human resources

development and awareness-raising include: in the natural ecosystems sector, researching
methodologies for the development of volunteers and others employed to conduct
monitoring; and in the development assistance sector, researching public awarenesspolicies and human resources development policies on adaptation, which are directed at
responsible persons in the sector.
¾

Research topics related to the social and economic perspective of adaptation
measures

There needs to be research on economic incentives that encourage adaptation measuresand on economic assessments such as the assessment of costs involved in adaptation
measures; and there needs to be research on social systems, such as on social mechanismsthat incorporate adaptation measures. In a broad sense, these could also be covered in thelegal system topics of the preceding paragraph. They will be important topics, especiallyin striving for efficient and effective wise adaptation.

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An example of research on economic incentives is the research into insurance systems asmechanisms for diversifying and transferring risk, such as for damage caused by extreme
weather. An example of research on social systems is the research on consensus-building
and specific methodologies related to the promotion of adaptation measures.
¾

Research topics related to impacts and adaptation measures in the industrial
sectorAlthough a specific working group for the impacts and adaptation measures in theindustrial sector was not established in this review, it is envisaged that the impacts on theindustrial sector are large and that the adaptation measures to be adopted are diverse.
Looking at an example of other countries, in England, the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) takes a initiative in promoting efforts such as for thedevelopment of Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT) (including
agriculture, building design and construction, motor manufacturing, financial services,etc.). In Japan as well, it is important that we organize the latest knowledge on the impacts
and adaptation measures in the industrial sector.

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