৫ৢਊੂ峘஘৕ਈ੺峘஘৕㻺‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊᵡᵐग़ჷჄ๔᝶ჄᾔᵏᾐᾔᵏᾐᾔᵐᵓӸ᧵‫׎‬ᢊɤ᣻Ⴤ˙Ѭฺެᢊែ≋․•ԗ࠰ғ᧓≌˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊ੡௃ূপଶ੡௃রఙপଶ੡௃ਧপଶ崽嵑嵛崡ব෨‣‫‫‬‪‧≋ଯԧ •≌࠰ Ӹลᙱ‫ٻ‬೛≋Ӹลɶ‫⊡‵※ځ‬᫠޽※‵≌᧏ᡫ‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏग़ჷჄɤ᣻ჄӸล᫠ ɶ޽ ‫ځ‬‣‫‫‫‬‪≋࠯঺‣•≌࠰ ˙Ѭฺެᢊែ≋ிෙ※‵⊡᫠޽※‵≌μዴ᧏ᡫ‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊᵡᵐग़ჷჄɤ᣻Ⴤ᫠޽ӸӞி ‫ދ‬ෙ Ҥ․••…≋࠯঺‣ ≌࠰ ிӸ᭗ᡮᢊែ∝ிӸ᧵ᐯѣ៻ᢊ੗ዓ‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊᵡᵐग़ჷჄɤ᣻Ⴤᝅဋிᵧᵡׄଐࠊᵨᵡᵲ․••‧≋࠯঺‣ ≌࠰ ˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊ≋ᝅဋி‼‵⁆⊡ׄଐࠊ‼‵⁆≌μዴ᧏ᡫ‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊᵡᵐग़ჷჄɤ᣻Ⴤׄଐࠊᵨᵡᵲᝅဋிᵨᵡᵲ㡰఩ᶫᱱྡᡤᅾᆅ ᚄ㛫㛗 P ᏶ᡂᖺ

1Normandy ᶫࣇࣛࣥࢫ

856

1995㸦H7)

2

᳿ᾆ኱ᶫ

୰ᅜ

602

1993㸦H5㸧3ᚎᾆ኱ᶫ୰ᅜ602

1996㸦H8)4ྡ ୰ኸ኱ᶫ

᪥ᮏ

590

1998㸦H10㸧

5Skarnsundet ᶫ ࣀ࢙࣮ࣝ࢘530

1991㸦H3)䠄୓ྎ䠋᪥䠅

10
8
6
4
2
0ᵗᵌᵏᴾ

ਠ૔峘ઐৢ୤峙৫ৢਊੂ峘ኖ‪೅ᵒᵌᵏᴾᵒᵒᵌᵏᵏ

ᵕᵌᵓᴾ

ᵏᵌᵐᴾ
1998

టિ೓഍੊ଡ଼৫ৢઉ৏

2004ূ੡ৈச੊ଡ଼嵣ূ੡ଚঽ৿੤੊
மਢ

2008

ৗ੡ઋৈச੊ଡ଼น৛-&7‫ൃع‬ஸি঱
৫ৢ

2016
੺ফ

ฟ඾ 1(;&2 ୰᪥ᮏㄪ࡭‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏ๔᝶Ⴤᵡᵐᾔᵏᾔᵏᾐ˙Ѭฺެᢊែ

ૼӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែ

ίிෙᵧᵡ῍᫠޽ᵧᵡὸᾔᵏᾐ˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊɤ᣻Ⴤίᝅဋிᵨᵡᵲ῍ׄଐࠊᵨᵡᵲὸឡ▱┴䞉୕㔜┴ྜィ

100%

ᑠᆺ㌴

80%

1.80ग़ჷჄ

ᵔᵐᵃほගධ㎸ᐈᩘఙ䜃䠄2005ᖺᇶ‽䠅Ӹ᧵‫׎‬ᢊᾔᵐᵓ኱ᆺ㌴

ᵔᵗᵃ60%

ᵑᵒᵃ40%20%0%

ᵓᵑᵃ

1.40

1.20

崲崔崟嵆嵒崦嵤崰峙ফ‫ر‬ੜਸ
1.00

0.80

ᵑᵐᵃ

2004

1.60

ᵓᵖᵃ

ᵏᵓᵃᵏᵏᵃ1998

2008

䝘䜺䝅䝬䝸䝌䞊䝖

2005

2006

2007200820092010

2011

20122013

2014ฟ඾ ឡ▱┴ࠕほගࣞࢡ࢚࣮ࣜࢩࣙࣥ฼⏝⪅⤫ィࠖࠊ୕㔜┴ࠕほගࣞࢡ࢚࣮ࣜࢩࣙࣥධ㎸ᐈᩘ᥎ィࠖࢼ࢞ࢩ࣐ࣜࢰ࣮ࢺࠕ⤫ィ࠿ࡽぢࡓ᱓ྡᕷ㸦ᖹᡂ  ᖺᗘࢹ࣮ࢱ㸧ࠖ

2016‫پ‬੡ઋৈச੊ଡ଼‫ق‬৵ฝ‫ع‬঳૝‫ك‬岝టિ೓഍੊ଡ଼‫ق‬੡௃রఙ‫ع‬ఄਣ‫ك‬峕峲峵ী૿૨ฟ඾ 1(;&2 ୰᪥ᮏㄪ࡭ӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊ
ᵡᵐ

⇕⏣⚄ᐑ

ྡྂᒇ Ỉ᪘㤋ग़ჷჄส㇂䝝䜲䜴䜵䜲
䜸䜰䝅䝇

ɤ᣻Ⴤ

NEOPASAᒸᓮほගධ㎸ᐈᩘ ୓ே㹼୓ே㹼୓ே୓ே㹼୓ேͤ䝺䝂䝷䞁䝗䛾ほගධ㎸ᐈᩘ䛿9᭶䛻100୓ே䜢✺◚䛧䛯䛣䛸䛛䜙100୓ே䛸䛧䛶⾲♧ᾔᵏᾐ䝘䜺䝅䝬䝸䝌䞊䝖䝺䝂䝷䞁䝗ฟ඾ ឡ▱┴ࡢほග᪋タࠕほගࣞࢡ࢚࣮ࣜࢩࣙࣥ฼⏝⪅⤫ィࠖࠊ୕㔜┴ࡢほග᪋タࠕほගࣞࢡ࢚࣮ࣜࢩࣙࣥධ㎸ᐈᩘ᥎ィ᭩࣭ほගᐈືែㄪᰝሗ࿌᭩ࠖᚑᴗ⪅ᩘ䛾ఙ䜃䠄H10ᇶ‽䠅

1.10ป଍ঽ੘৬峙਩峲峴峬ৈ਷૆ఄਣ峟୍વડ崛嵛崮崲崧嵤嵇崲嵓੺ফੜਸ峕ૡ峂峵+ফ峕ਸ਼崸嵤崡岝+ফ峕ਸ਼崸嵤崡岶୹৷৫઩

1.00

᫠
޽

0.90

0.80

ឡ▱┴䞉୕㔜┴ྜィἢ⥺⮬἞యࢄ݈ங஄ާӸลɶ‫ځ‬ฺެࢄ݈࿭ি峟୍崛嵛崮崲崧嵤嵇崲嵓+ফ峕ਸ਼崸嵤崡岝+ফ峕ਸ਼崸嵤崡岝+ফ峕ਸ਼崸嵤崡岶୹৷৫઩ᆅ౯䛾ఙ䜃䠄H10ᇶ‽䠅ฟ඾ ྡྂᒇ0.90

৸଍৫ৢ৏ੜਸ峕ૡ峂岝
প்ੜਸ

0.80

0.70
0.60
ឡ▱┴䞉୕㔜┴ᖹᆒ
0.50

ἢ⥺1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ͤఀໃ‴ᓊ㐨࠿ࡽ  ੊௨ෆࡢᆅⅬ࡟࠶ࡿᕤᴗ⣔ࡢᆅ౯ࡢᖹᆒ್ࡢఙࡧฟ඾ ᅜᅵᩘ್᝟ሗ৫ৢ৐ ೣਮফ˖ಅᇌ‫ע‬৫ৢ৏ ਴ਛফ

Ӹลກᙸఄਣ峟୍ূડ崛嵛崮崲崧嵤嵇崲嵓

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014ฟ඾ ᕤᴗ⤫ィ

1.00ป଍峑峙ਓ঵ણ৿峼੍岲峵崛嵛崮崲崧嵤嵇崲嵓峘ତ૟岶ਤষ഍෢੕భশ⋷峕఺峠崧嵤嵇崲嵓峑岝+ফ২峼৯ಥ峕഍෢峮ৗૠਝ૟峘ତ૟峼ৰ઱ᇧ㢌ᰴᘧ఍♫ +3ଲୗષল෰પಉ峘崟崏崊ᾔᵏఎੴ਩嵣ਕ੎਩峙৺સ峘崟崏崊‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊ䛭䛾௚ᵡᵐ30඙
䠄54%䠅

඲ᅜ䛾ग़ჷჄὉ
⮬ື㌴⏘ᴗ䛾 ɤ᣻Ⴤᚘ〇㐀ရฟⲴ㢠➼ ᵐᵓΫ

ᵓᵓ඙෇

ίᵒᵔᵃὸ

䠄2014䠅ฟ඾ ⤒῭⏘ᴗ┬ ᕤᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝग़ჷჄᾔᵏᾐ˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊ♫௨ୖ㹼♫㹼♫ӸӞ‫ދ‬ล

ᕤᴗ⏝ᆅ࡟❧ᆅࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ⮬ື㌴⏘ᴗ㛵㐃௻ᴗᩘ

ɤ᣻Ⴤฟ඾ ᅜᅵᩘ್᝟ሗ
ͤ〇㐀ရฟⲴ㢠➼ᕤᴗ⤫ィࡢ⣽ศ㢮ࠕ⮬ື㌴ࢱ࢖࣭ࣖࢳ࣮ࣗࣈ〇㐀ᴗࠖࠕ⮬ື㌴〇㐀ᴗ㸦஧㍯⮬ື㌴ࢆྵࡴ㸧ࠖࠕ⮬ື㌴㌴య࣭㝃㝶㌴〇㐀ᴗࠖࠕ⮬ື㌴㒊ศရ࣭㝃ᒓရ〇㐀ᴗࠖ࡟ࡼࡿ㞟ィͤᕤᴗ⏝ᆅᕤᴗᅋᆅ㛤Ⓨ࡟ࡼࡿᩜᆅ㠃✚ KD௨ୖࡢ⏝ᆅ㸦ᕤᴗᅋᆅ㸧࡜༢⊂❧ᆅ࡟ࡼࡿᩜᆅ㠃✚ KD ௨ୖࡢ⏝ᆅ㸦༢⊂ᕤሙ⏝ᆅ㸧ࡢ⠊ᅖࡢᗈࡀࡾ㟼ᒸ┴ ⁠㈡௨す 㛗㔝௨ᮾ
1%1%1%୕㔜┴8%ᒱ㜧┴22%ฟ඾ឡ▱┴67%ͤ࡜⵳㸸㣗⫗⏝ࡢᐙ␆ࢆฎ⌮ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ᖹᡂ  ᖺ∧ྡྂᒇᕷ୰ኸ༺኎ᕷሙ༡㒊ᕷሙᖺሗ‫᧲ޟ‬ჄӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏӸӞ‫ࠊދ‬ɶ‫ځ‬ҵ٥ࠊ‫ئ‬Ҥᢿࠊ‫ئ‬ӸӞ‫ދ‬ᇹʚ࿢ཞᐯѣ៻ᢊᵡᵐ˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊᾔᵏᾐૼӸᅕ᭗ᡮᢊែᾔᵏᾐग़ჷჄᾔᵐᵓӸ᧵‫׎‬ᢊɤ᣻Ⴤฟ嵣ᆈ峘༩ു୍ਯ峙িਉ৘岝௹ଶ৘峘৘峑ఎੴ਩峘৺‧સ峼ಚ峫峵ฟ඾࠶࠸ࡕࡢ␆⏘࣮ࣜࣇࣞࢵࢺᖹᡂ  ᖺ∧ྍฎศᡤᚓᐙィ㔠⼥㈨⏘ṡൟ᧓இኳෞᝲૅЈᨻᗓ᭱⤊ᾘ㈝ᨭฟ㟂せ䝃䜲䝗බⓗᅛᐃ㈨ᮏᙧᡂṢൟ᧓˖ಅᚨͳ৲᝻Ṥܱឋᵥᵰᵮ⩣ᮇ䜈ᙳ㡪టિ೓഍ঽ৿੤੊峘ତ૟થ૮峘ਚਏৎ৑૗৲峼਀峃੐ఏṠൟ᧓᝻ஜἋἚἕἁ⩣ᮇ䜈ᙳ㡪⥲ᐇປാ᫬㛫ṥᵥᵢᵮῤ​Ῑ῜Ό‌ṣ᣿МṞ๼‫נ‬ᵥᵰᵮ㈌ᖯ౪⤥㔞ᵟᵡᵡປാຊேཱྀṟ‫ڂ‬ಅྙ⩣ᮇ䜈ᙳ㡪౪⤥䝃䜲䝗ෆ⏕ኚᩘ䠄䝰䝕䝹ᘧ䛻䜘䜚⟬ฟ䠅እ⏕ኚᩘ䠄᪤Ꮡ䛾⤫ィ䝕䞊䝍䠅ᣦᶆ䛾㛵ಀ䜢⾲䛩䈜䝰䝕䝹ᘧ䛿௨ୗ䛾㛵ᩘᘧ䜢᥇⏝<ٙα;ٔβ㇏⏣ᮾ䠦䠟䠰㻌㉳Ⅼ▷⦰๭๭ྜ㻜㻌䇵㻌㻝㻜䠂㻌㻝㻜㻌䇵㻌㻞㻜䠂㻌㻞㻜㻌㻙㻌㻟㻜䠂㻌㻟㻜㻌㻙㻌㻠㻜䠂㻌㻠㻜㻌㻙㻌㻡㻜䠂㻌㻡㻜㻌㻙㻌㻢㻜䠂㻌㻢㻜䠂㻌 㻙㻌ᅄ᪥ᕷ䠦䠟䠰㻌㉳Ⅼ▷⦰๭๭ྜ㻜㻌䇵㻌㻝㻜䠂㻌㻝㻜㻌䇵㻌㻞㻜䠂㻞㻜㻌㻙㻌㻟㻜䠂㻟㻜㻌㻙㻌㻠㻜䠂㻠㻜㻌㻙㻌㻡㻜䠂㻡㻜㻌㻙㻌㻢㻜䠂㻢㻜䠂㻌 㻙㻌ኚᩘྡᘧlog(Y)=C(1)*TIME+C(2)*log(WH*WL*(1-UR))+C(3)*log(K)+C(4)*log(ACC)

ձ₯ᅾ *53 <  TIME㸸ᖺᗘࠊWH㸸⥲ᐇປാ᫬㛫ࠊ
WL㸸ປാຊேཱྀࠊUR㸸ኻᴗ⋡ࠊK㸸Ẹ㛫㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡࠊ
ACC㸸࢔ࢡࢭࢩࣅࣜࢸ࢕ᣦᶆ

ղኻᴗ⋡ 85 log(UR)=C(5)+C(6)*GAP(-1)+C(7)*log(UR(-1))
GAP(-1)㸸๓ᮇࡢ *'3 ࢠࣕࢵࣉࠊUR(-1)㸸๓ᮇࡢኻᴗ⋡
K=C(8)+C(9)*K(-1)+C(10)*IPK(-1)㸸๓ᮇࡢẸ㛫㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡࠊ
ճẸ㛫㈨ᮏ
ࢫࢺࢵࢡ . IP㸸Ẹ㛫௻ᴗタഛᅛᐃ㈨ᮏᙧᡂ

ͤẸ㛫㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡࡣ✌ാ⋡ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ
log(CP)=C(11)+C(12)*log(YD)+C(13)*log(HFA)մẸ㛫᭱⤊
ᾘ㈝ᨭฟ &3 YD㸸ྍฎศᡤᚓࠊHFA㸸ᐙィ㔠⼥㈨⏘
log(IP)=C(14)+C(15)*log(GRP(-1))+C(16)*log(I(-1))յẸ㛫௻ᴗ
タഛᢞ㈨ ,3  GRP(-1)㸸๓ᮇࡢ *53ࠊI(-1)㸸๓ᮇࡢ㔠฼ն㔠฼ , log(I)=C(17)+C(18)*GAP
C(19)*log(M2CD)
GAP㸸*'3 ࢠࣕࢵࣉࠊM2CD㸸㈌ᖯ౪⤥㔞
GRP=CP+IP+CG+IG

շᐇ㉁ *53 CP㸸Ẹ㛫᭱⤊ᾘ㈝ᨭฟࠊIP㸸Ẹ㛫᭱⤊ᾘ㈝ᨭฟࠊCG㸸ᨻᗓ᭱⤊ᾘ㈝ᨭฟࠊIG㸸බⓗᅛᐃ㈨ᮏᙧᡂ

ᵏᵗᵃᵏᵕᵃग़ჷჄỉᵐᵎ࠰᧓ỉബλᾉᵒᵕΫɤ᣻Ⴤỉᵐᵎ࠰᧓ỉബλᾉᵏᵓΫ

81%83%૚਩峘৺સ峕ৼਊ‫آ‬ͤឡ▱┴ࡢṓධ㸦ࠕឡ▱┴⤫ィᖺ㚷ࠖ࠾ࡼࡧࠕឡ▱┴ࡢỴ⟬᝟ሗࠖ㸧ࠊ୕㔜┴ࡢṓධ㸦ࠕ୕㔜ࡢ㈈ᨻࠖ㸧ࢆ  ᖺ㛫✚ࡳୖࡆࡓ್ͤ ᖺࡣࠊᙜึண⟬㢠ࡢ್ࢆ᥇⏝

ո*'3 ࢠࣕࢵࣉ GAP = GRP / Y-1*$3 

GRP㸸ᐇ㉁ *53ࠊY㸸₯ᅾ *53ͤ㹁(㸿)㸦1ӌ㸿ӌ19㸧ࡣྛࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ࡟㛵ࡍࡿಀᩘ䠄඙෇䠅
50
48
46
44
42

岽峘ফ৑峘ఎੴ਩岝ਕ੎਩峘੕েਓ峼‣†…٫ೲ঱岼
ᩚഛ䛒䜚
ᩚഛ䛺䛧
⣼✚䠄ᩚഛ䛒䜚䠉ᩚഛ䛺䛧䠅⣼✚䠄඙෇䠅
15˙Ѭฺެᐯѣ៻ᢊμዴ᧏ᡫྛᖺ䛾⤒῭ຠᯝ˙Ѭฺެᢊែ᧏ᡫ

12

940
38

636ίᵐᵕᵃὸᵐᵎ࠰᧓ỉኺฎјௐᵏᵐΫόग़ჷჄᵖᵌᵖ Ϋόίᵕᵑᵃὸ

34

33230ɤ᣻Ⴤᵑᵌᵐ Ϋό1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170