Talanoa Dialogue: opening meeting of the political phase
COP24, Katowice, Poland, Tuesday 11 December 2018

Statement by IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee

In these remarks I will concentrate on the third Talanoa Dialogue question: How do
we get there?

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC, prepared in response to an
invitation from parties at COP21 in 2015, when you adopted the Paris Agreement,
sets out the risks of climate change and the desirability of limiting global warming to1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels rather than 2ºC.

There are clear benefits in limiting warming to 1.5ºC.

The report sets out a map for keeping warming to 1.5ºC, in its chapters on mitigationand strengthening and implementing the global response.

We have assessed the scientific literature to find realistic options so thatpolicymakers can take action towards a sustainable future.
The report shows that not just action, but urgent action is needed.
The latest scientific and socio-economic knowledge shows that limiting global
warming to 1.5ºC is not impossible, but would require unprecedented transitions in all
aspects of society.
We are currently not on track to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
We still have a small window of action to limit warming to 1.5ºC, but each yearmatters.

***

The IPCC report shows that limiting global warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial
levels implies reducing emissions of carbon dioxide by about 45 percent by 2030 –12 years from now – compared with 2010 levels.

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC also means that global emissions of carbon dioxide
would need to reach “net zero” around 2050.

1

This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing
carbon dioxide from the air.

How could this be achieved?

Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5ºC with no or limited overshoot would require
rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (includingtransport and buildings) and industrial systems.
These systems transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale.
They involve the use of a wide range of technologies, behavioural changes and asignificant increase of investment in low-carbon options.
In energy systems they would mean a steep reduction in the use of coal, falling toclose to zero percent of electricity, with renewables projected to supply 70-85 percent
of electricity in 2050.
Even then we would need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Methods for doing this include planting trees, bioenergy combined with carbon
dioxide capture and storage, and changed land management.

To avoid warming of more than 1.5ºC in the middle of the century followed by largescale carbon dioxide removal, CO2 emissions will need to decline substantially before
2030.

We are moving in the right direction in many areas, but we need to do more andfaster.
This requires greater collective ambition.

Our report shows that there are multiple pathways to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
Each pathway, each option, has potential synergies and trade-offs with otherdimensions of sustainability.

Our report shows the possibility, by paying specific attention to those most vulnerable
to climate change, and to response options, to maximize synergies and build ethical,
fair and just transitions.

The sooner emissions fall, the more options we keep on the table.
Doing more now reduces reliance on unproven and risky techniques to remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

2

Doing less now would commit people today to the known risks of overshooting 1.5ºC,
with severe risks of irreversible loss of ecosystems and shocks to the basic needs ofthe most fragile human societies.
In some regions, adaptation capacities may be overwhelmed even at 1.5ºC of global
warming.
Sustainable development supports, and often enables, the fundamental societal andsystems transitions and transformations that help limit global warming to 1.5ºC.
Such changes facilitate the pursuit of climate-resilient pathways that achieve
ambitious mitigation and adaptation, in conjunction with poverty eradication andefforts to reduce inequalities.

***Let me close with some policy-relevant comments.
There is no single recipe for success: each country must do what is right for its
circumstances.
But we all know the direction we are travelling in is away from reliance on fossil fuels.
Building coal and other fossil fuel power stations now commits governments to usingthat infrastructure for decades, running counter to our collective ambition.
Or it risks wasting that investment by creating stranded assets.
Transformations of this kind affect people.
Linking climate policy with efforts to retrain workers affected by the move away fromhigh-carbon sectors will address social dislocation.
And we need to take a fresh look at the economics of climate policy.
We are talking about accelerating transformation to divert investment from fossil fuelinfrastructure to renewables and to a new inclusive, resilient economy.

Our report shows clearly that energy efficiency, adopting healthy diets and making
sustainable consumption choices can help enable the stabilization of global warming
at 1.5ºC while improving wellbeing for all.
The scale of the challenge need not daunt us.
We talk of the need for unprecedented transformation.
The last 30 years have also seen unprecedented technological change.
The combination of technological change and wise climate policy will be powerful.

Three years ago you invited the IPCC to prepare a report for you about warming of1.5ºC.

3

Since then the IPCC has made a tremendous collective effort, assessing more than
6,000 scientific publications to bring you the best scientific knowledge on the subject.

With this report the scientific community tells you that limiting warming to 1.5ºC is not
impossible but the window for doing this is now.

Let me repeat:Every bit of warming mattersEvery year mattersEvery choice matters

The scientific community has delivered.
Now it’s up to governments to take the necessary action.
Thank you.

4