IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved

Transport Future Workshop
2nd Workshop for Automobile and Energy

CO2 emission reduction fromlight duty vehicles by 2050: longterm vision for short term
actions
François Cuenot
International Energy Agency
www.iea.org© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right ReservedIndex Long term vision
 Transport sector in the big picture Cost effectiveness of low carbon technologies
investment
 Sales mix in the coming decades Short term action
 Fuel Economy Technology Roadmap
 Policy Pathway on Fuel Economy
 The EV valley of death Technology cost and benefits© OECD/IEA 2010

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Gt CO 2IEA ETP-2010: World energy-related
CO2 emissions abatement by region
60
55
50
45
40
353025
2015
1050
2010

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

Other transformation 14%
Buildings 14%
Transport 23%
Industry 16%
Power sector 32%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppm case

2015

2020

2025

ETP2010 analysis

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

In the BLUE Map scenario, transport accounts for 23%ofreductions.
Additionalsavings
accruein“transformation”, since less high-CO2 fuels (such ascoal-to-liquids) are produced for transport use.
© OECD/IEA 2010

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200-20-40

Fuel savings

10%discount40Residential

3% discount60

Commercial

Total

Undiscounted

USD trillion (2010-2050)

Investment

A low carbon future is cost effective

TransportIndustry
Power distribution
Power transmission
Power generation-60

Biomass and waste-80

Natural gas

-100
-120
-140

Oil
Coal

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in theBLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional
investment required.
© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved

Global Vehicle and Fuel Costs, 20102050 by Scenario
HydrogenElectricity
250

Fuel costs

Trillion USD

300200Liquid biofuels
CTL and GTL
CNG and LPG
Other petroleum
Gasoline

150

Other
Shipping

Vehicle costs

100

500Baseline

BLUE Map

Vehicle costs

Baseline
USD 120

BLUE Map
USD 120
Fuel costs

BLUE Map
USD 70Air
Buses
TrucksPLDV - FCV
PLDV - EV and PHEVPLDV - CNG and LPG
PLDV - hybrid
PLDV - conventional

PLDV=passenger light-duty vehicle; costs are in real $2008, 0 discount rate.

Fuel cost savings mostly or fully offset the costs ofadvanced technology vehicles in BLUE Map, especially if it
results in lower oil prices (last bar)
© OECD/IEA 2010

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Passenger LDV sales by technology type andscenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging
Million sales / year

In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles
through 2050; hybrids reach about 30% of sales© OECD/IEA 2010

In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2025, PHEVs
and EVs by 2030, FCVs after 2035. By 2050, plug-in vehicles
account for more than two-thirds of all sales.
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Cumulative sales in the low carbon
scenario Most vehicles in the coming 2 decades will beICE-powered EVs are needed, 10-year effort before they

really begin to matter© OECD/IEA 2010

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Actions for the next decade Tackle fuel economy now!
 IEA activities: GFEI, FE Technology Roadmap, PolicyPathway Potential for FE improvement
 Overcome the « EV valley of death » EVI : activities and primary results Hydrogen, biofuels The way to a zero carbon transport sector© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved

IEA activities - GFEI
 Status of worldwide fuel economy© OECD/IEA 2010

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GFEI Project proposal On-road fuel economy measurement
 Fleet selection over several key partnerscountries
 Sample design key to representativity
 Use of OBDII + GPS Road type, hour, elevation
 Engine / vehicle parameters:
 fuel consumption key one Launch saught in the coming months© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right ReservedTechnology roadmap – Fuel Economy
 Fuel economy improvement from different

approaches: Vehicle technology on the test cycle Powertrain improvement
 lightweightning

 Vehicle technologies outside the test cycle
 Air conditionning, Head lamps, spare lubricants / tires

 Non vehicle technologies
 Driver support technologies (GSI, TPMS)

 Non technology improvements
 Road surface improvement
 Driver behaviour© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved

Potential fuel economy abatment
 Most of it is coming from vehicle technologies
Fuel economy improvement (%)

VehicleDriverRoad

Factors affecting fuel economy

Cars

PTWs

TrucksPower train technologies (tested on cycle)

30 to 40

15 to 25

20 to 35

Other power train / vehicular technologies(incl. auxiliaries)
10 to 20

5 to 1010 to 20

Eco-driving

5 to 105 to 105 to 10Congestion

5 to 72 to 55 to 10Surface

2 to 72 to 72 to 745 to 65

20 to 45

35 to 60

Total (taking into account non-additivities)

 Non vehicular benefits are limited, but costeffective© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved

IEA EV activities
 Dedicated Implementing Agreement on Hybridand Electric Vehicles

 Technical, R&D focused
 8 active tasks on EV related issues:
 Heavy Duty Hybrids
 Electrochemical Systems
 Lessons learned from market deployment,…

 Follow-up of activities from member countries

 The IEA EV/PHEV roadmap© OECD/IEA 2010

Contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp

IEEJ:June 2012 All Right Reserved Launched at the Clean Energy Ministerial, July 2010
 Kick-off meeting was held in Paris 29 Sept/1 Oct 2010 14 countries: China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India,Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United
Kingdom, United States
 Together these counties account for about 80% of world’s vehicle
demand, probably most of EV sales in coming years
 International Energy Agency serves in a facilitator role

 Three primary objectives: Common data collection/analysis efforts
 Greater RD&D collaboration
 City forum that links cities within EVI countries, City case books to belaunched at EVS26© OECD/IEA 2010

 Recent Events:
 Pilot Cities conference in Shanghai, April 21-22 2011
 EVI Meeting in Barcelona, November 30 2011
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Growth of slow and fast charging
points in EVI countries, 2008-2011
Not all data points havebeen submitted by all EVI
members which results inunderreporting.

© OECD/IEA 2010

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Some EV issues / questions
 Valley of death High cost of cars
 Lack of infrastructure Need for major investments (by whom?) Consumer awareness issues
 Risk aversion
 Uncertainties
 Will battery costs come down? How far?
 What do the first 1/5/10% market share buyers
want and need in an EV?
 When and how will people recharge?
 What will be the real CO2 impacts?
© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right ReservedHydrogen fuel cell vehicles
 Longer term issue, no significant market

penetration before 2030

 Zero carbon transport sector relying on threepillars

 Electricity
 Biofuel Hydrogen

 ETP 2012 addressing this issue© OECD/IEA 2010

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Costs and CO2 Benefits
 Fuel efficient technologies add costs to thevehicle purchase price Compensated by fuel savings over the life timeof the vehicle Which technologies should be implemented,and when?
 Shift of spendings from fuel to vehicle
 Extra investment tiny compared to totaltransport spendings© OECD/IEA 2010

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IEEJ:June 2012 All Right ReservedTechnology cost and CO2 benefits
 Short term actions in the US© OECD/IEA 2010

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Weight marginal abatement costlower than previously thought?

© OECD/IEA 2010

Source: Lutsey, 2012
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Conclusions
 Vehicles technologies are necessary to reachlow carbon transport system

 Short term action on all aspects of fueleconomy can bring substantial savings forlimited (or negative) costs

 Engage now for zero tailpipe emissions

vehicles to be deployed after 2020

 Policies are key to success for the transition

toward a sustainable transport sector© OECD/IEA 2010

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Thanks for your kind attention© OECD/IEA 2010

Contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp