TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for March 2020)

Domestic Economy, biggest drop on record～ Declined to the level following the Great East
Japan Earthquake.Growing uncertainty over the future ～e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp（Companies researched: 23,676; Valid responses: 11,330; Response rate: 47.9%;
Survey start date: May 2002)< Overview of March 2020: Recession phase >The economic diffusion index (DI) in March 2020 was 32.5, down by 6.2 points
from the previous month, it has continued to worsen for the sixth consecutive
month, and the largest drop on record. The domestic economy recorded its
largest decline amid a recession phase, due to the widening impact of COVID19.

By industry : Worsening in 51 business categories in all ten industries.
Among these, 23 business categories recorded their largest drop.
By size : The largest decline was recorded in all sizes. Stagnation ofhuman resources, goods and capital held down business confidence.
By region : Nationwide worsening in 47 prefectures in all ten regions.
COVID-19 impact spread nationwide.

< Future outlook: Recession continues >With growing uncertainty about overseas trends and COVID-19, therecession is expected to continue.

5045403530

46.9 46.8 45.4

45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6

42.5 41.9
38.7
32.5

29.7

28.1 26.7

25.7 24.5

2520

23.7 22.9 22.3

21.8 21.3 21.0 20.9

After 1 month
After 3 months（Prediction→）
After 1 year
After 6 months
Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019
2020
2021
Projected future DI
46.9 46.8 45.4 45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 29.7 28.1 26.7 25.7 24.5 23.7 22.9 22.3 21.8 21.3 21.0 20.9
Change from March.2020-2.8 -4.4 -5.8 -6.8 -8.0 -8.8 -9.6 -10.2-10.7-11.2-11.5-11.6

15*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research March 2020

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to tHK
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

PrFDiousMonthTotal

46.9 46.8 45.4 45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5

▲ 6.2

Large Firms

49.8 49.7 48.8 48.7 47.7 47.9 48.0 47.1 47.0 45.7 45.3 42.0 34.8

▲ 7.2

Small to Medium-sized Firms

46.2 46.1 44.6 44.2 43.9 43.9 44.2 43.2 42.8 41.7 41.1 38.0 32.0

▲ 6.0

Micro Firms

46.3 46.2 44.5 44.1 43.8 44.2 45.1 43.9 43.5 42.1 41.4 38.8 32.3

▲ 6.5

Ratio to tHK
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

PrFDiousMonthAgriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

42.3 41.3 40.5 43.2 39.1 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.5 41.7 38.4 37.9 32.8

▲ 5.1Finance

45.9 45.1 44.7 44.8 45.1 44.7 45.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 44.8 42.2 33.3

▲ 8.9

Construction

53.6 52.8 51.7 51.6 51.7 52.1 53.1 52.1 52.2 51.6 50.0 47.8 41.5

▲ 6.3

Real Estate

47.4 48.7 47.6 48.3 47.4 46.5 48.0 45.9 46.0 44.2 45.9 42.0 31.6

▲ 10.4

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed40.6 42.2 41.3 40.3 40.4 41.1 39.8 39.1 39.7 39.9 38.0 34.5 28.4

▲ 6.1

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

39.2 39.0 36.6 36.5 36.4 36.9 36.3 36.1 34.6 32.6 30.5 29.3 23.2

▲ 6.1

44.1 45.7 45.4 43.5 43.8 45.2 44.1 44.8 43.8 40.2 39.9 37.2 33.4

▲ 3.8

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

ManufacturingPulp, Paper and Paper Products

44.1 45.7 43.0 41.7 39.6 42.3 42.8 40.2 41.7 40.6 37.3 32.0 29.2

▲ 2.8

Publishing,Printing

34.4 35.6 34.3 33.9 32.5 33.1 34.1 33.0 32.7 32.9 30.9 29.7 23.1

▲ 6.6

Chemical

45.4 46.2 43.9 42.5 41.9 41.8 41.0 41.2 40.6 40.1 39.0 35.8 32.1

▲ 3.7

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

45.4 45.5 42.9 41.8 41.5 41.2 40.4 39.8 38.1 37.6 36.3 32.9 29.0

▲ 3.9

General Machinery

48.9 49.0 46.0 45.1 44.0 41.5 41.1 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.3 35.4 31.1

▲ 4.3

Electrical Machinery

46.0 44.7 43.1 43.0 42.8 43.9 41.2 42.2 40.5 40.4 41.0 38.5 32.7

▲ 5.8

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

49.3 49.4 48.1 47.5 46.4 43.4 42.3 43.5 41.2 40.9 39.4 36.5 34.2

▲ 2.3

45.5 47.3 44.4 42.4 43.9 43.4 42.0 41.3 42.0 39.9 40.4 39.0 34.8

▲ 4.2

Precision Machinery,
Medical Instruments and Equipment
Other

45.3 40.2 40.2 40.2 38.0 40.7 41.8 37.4 38.4 38.0 36.9 36.8 31.1

▲ 5.7

44.5 44.8 42.9 42.0 41.5 41.4 40.6 40.3 39.6 38.6 37.6 34.9 30.3

▲ 4.6

Food,BEWerages

40.5 41.1 40.8 40.4 38.8 39.0 38.8 38.1 37.9 37.4 37.3 33.1 25.6

▲ 7.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33.6 33.2 33.2 31.6 29.8 30.8 31.6 28.8 28.8 26.5 26.2 22.0 16.4

▲ 5.6

46.4 45.6 44.7 43.8 44.7 44.6 46.0 45.1 43.4 43.1 42.8 38.5 34.4

▲ 4.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

39.0 39.2 39.0 36.4 37.0 37.1 38.0 37.7 36.3 35.0 34.9 33.5 27.5

▲ 6.0

Chemical44.3 44.2 41.8 41.2 42.7 42.0 42.7 41.0 40.4 39.0 38.7 35.5 33.2

▲ 2.3

Recycled Resources

48.6 41.0 40.2 37.1 32.8 32.8 30.6 34.8 29.0 33.3 30.8 27.1 21.2

▲ 5.9

43.7 43.4 40.8 40.4 39.0 38.8 37.6 38.0 37.0 34.8 33.9 31.9 27.8

▲ 4.1

Total

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,
Mining Products
Machinery,Equipment

46.5 45.9 44.2 44.4 43.8 43.3 44.6 42.7 42.3 41.7 41.2 38.2 33.0

▲ 5.2

Other

42.5 42.7 40.6 40.6 40.2 40.2 40.7 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 31.5 26.5

▲ 5.0

43.7 43.3 41.9 41.4 41.0 40.8 41.4 39.9 39.3 38.4 37.9 34.4 29.4

▲ 5.0Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research March 20202

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to tHK
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

PrFDiousMonthRetail

Food,BEWerages

42.5 42.5 44.8 42.9 41.5 41.3 41.8 40.5 40.2 38.4 39.1 36.7 25.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38.9 39.1 36.9 36.6 34.6 36.5 37.9 32.7 31.5 28.7 28.0 24.2 16.2

▲ 8.0Drugs,Sundries

39.7 40.9 41.0 38.5 40.0 37.7 40.6 35.8 37.3 40.2 37.7 34.7 27.5

▲ 7.2

Furniture33.3 38.9 39.6 48.5 40.9 45.0 53.0 33.3 26.9 31.8 31.9 29.2 22.6

▲ 6.6

Information Machinery and Equipment

38.9 41.7 39.1 43.5 34.3 38.9 45.0 34.3 32.3 38.1 38.2 36.0 28.4

▲ 7.6

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

45.2 43.3 41.5 42.5 39.2 41.1 41.4 34.5 31.4 31.9 36.7 32.9 27.9

▲ 5.0

Special Merchandise

40.8 42.1 41.3 41.1 40.6 40.7 43.5 38.2 39.1 36.0 35.2 34.7 27.4

▲ 7.3

Various Merchandise

43.5 43.3 43.8 44.7 39.3 38.9 43.1 36.5 36.5 36.2 37.4 34.4 29.3

▲ 5.1

Other

33.3 43.8 39.6 46.3 41.7 41.7 40.5 48.1 40.7 47.9 48.1 43.9 31.8

▲ 12.141.4 42.1 41.6 42.0 39.5 40.2 42.6 37.0 36.1 35.8 36.3 34.1 26.7

▲ 7.4

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service▲ 10.948.1 48.2 46.7 45.6 44.5 45.5 46.0 44.9 45.1 42.6 39.5 34.0 27.7

▲ 6.3

Restaurants

37.8 42.9 40.6 42.9 39.6 38.1 43.6 37.3 39.4 40.7 41.0 32.3 14.2

▲ 18.1

Postal,Telecommunications

62.1 57.6 56.7 60.0 58.3 60.6 56.9 56.1 59.5 52.8 64.6 57.1 50.0

▲ 7.1

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

56.3 58.3 55.6 54.5 54.2 52.6 51.3 51.2 52.2 47.4 52.4 46.7 40.5

▲ 6.2

Leasing,Rentals

52.7 54.1 50.9 52.5 51.8 51.7 53.5 54.5 53.1 50.4 50.8 46.9 34.0

▲ 12.9Lodging, Hotels

42.3 41.0 50.0 44.9 40.3 39.9 47.2 41.3 42.0 39.1 38.5 23.2

7.0

▲ 16.2

Recreation41.0 38.8 42.0 41.5 41.8 40.9 38.7 38.2 40.7 37.5 39.4 35.7 17.0

▲ 18.7

Broadcasting

43.3 41.7 44.1 43.3 41.1 45.2 43.1 42.9 41.7 38.2 38.1 38.9 29.8

▲ 9.1

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

50.0 48.1 48.2 48.8 49.3 49.8 48.6 49.1 47.3 46.6 46.4 42.6 36.0

▲ 6.6

Advertising40.3 40.7 40.5 40.7 40.4 38.9 40.3 40.4 39.6 37.8 40.0 34.1 21.3

▲ 12.8

Information

60.3 59.6 58.0 57.8 58.5 58.7 57.7 57.4 57.8 56.2 56.5 54.2 43.9

▲ 10.3Labor Dispatching

53.8 53.5 53.9 52.8 52.7 51.0 53.2 53.3 50.9 46.2 49.2 42.5 34.1

▲ 8.4

Special Services

52.5 51.5 49.5 50.1 49.9 51.1 51.8 51.5 50.8 49.9 50.3 45.8 40.4

▲ 5.4

Medical,Welfare,Public Health47.1 46.9 47.8 47.0 48.7 46.5 47.3 46.5 48.5 47.7 47.8 43.2 35.9

▲ 7.3

Education

45.8 44.2 43.6 44.0 41.1 39.5 40.0 42.4 37.8 43.1 41.4 40.0 29.7

▲ 10.3

Other

49.0 50.2 47.9 48.5 47.9 48.3 48.4 47.9 47.9 45.6 46.2 39.8 29.2▲ 10.6

51.9 51.6 50.6 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.0 50.6 50.4 48.8 49.5 45.1 35.3

▲ 9.8

45.2 44.9 43.2 42.6 44.1 43.2 42.1 43.1 40.4 41.7 42.7 39.2 29.8

▲ 9.4Total

OtherRatio to tHK
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

PrFDiousMonthHokkaido

44.6 45.5 45.3 45.1 45.7 46.4 46.6 45.7 45.0 43.8 42.4 39.0 31.0

▲ 8.0Tohoku

42.8 43.1 42.2 41.9 41.7 41.7 43.2 41.9 42.2 40.9 38.8 36.7 30.7

▲ 6.0

kitakanto

44.7 44.3 43.1 42.5 42.5 42.6 42.2 40.9 40.0 40.0 39.4 36.9 31.8

▲ 5.1

minamikanto

47.8 47.7 46.0 46.0 45.5 45.7 46.1 45.5 45.5 44.3 44.5 41.1 34.1

▲ 7.0

Hokuriku

45.3 45.3 44.6 44.2 43.5 44.1 43.5 42.1 40.4 39.5 37.6 35.6 29.7

▲ 5.9

Tokai48.4 48.0 46.8 45.8 44.7 45.0 45.2 43.6 42.7 41.8 40.6 37.3 31.4

▲ 5.9

Kinki

47.3 46.9 45.0 44.6 44.0 43.8 43.9 42.2 41.9 40.5 39.8 36.3 30.4

▲ 5.9

Chugoku46.7 47.2 45.6 45.5 45.0 44.8 45.0 44.0 43.6 42.6 41.2 39.0 33.8

▲ 5.2

Shikoku46.8 46.9 46.7 44.8 43.1 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.0 43.8 42.7 39.5 36.4

▲ 3.1

Kyushu48.6 48.3 46.9 47.0 47.6 46.3 47.1 46.5 46.8 45.1 45.2 41.5 35.3

▲ 6.2

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research March 20203

Appendix
1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,676; Valid
responses: 11,330; Response rate: 47.9%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikantoHokuriku

571
763
831
3,574
614

Kyushu

1,273
1,925
610
335
834

Total

11,330TokaiKinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

65

Finance126

Construction

1,829

Real Estate

361

Manufacturing（3,108）Wholesale（3,032）

Retail（467）

Food,Beverages

73

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33

Drugs,Sundries

23

Furniture

14

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

37

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

359

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

120

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

233

Special Merchandise138

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

109

Various Merchandise

49

Publishing,Printing

176

OthersChemical434

Transportation,Warehousing

485

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

546

Restaurants

55

General Machinery

510

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

341

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

11

8
14112

Leasing,Rentals

123

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

80

Lodging, Hotels

31

Others88

Recreation

57

Food,Beverages

393

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

207

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,814）

14

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

187

350

Advertising

104

103

Information

506

288

Labor Dispatching69

37

Special Services

294
123

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

320

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment964

Education

Others370

Others32
197
43

OthersTotal

3.Size89

Large Firms

2,081

18.4%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,249

81.6%

micro Firms

3,249

28.7%

Total

11,330100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,330

TDB Trends Research March 20204

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted March 17 – 31 2020Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Service**Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms

No. of Employee: Below 20

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery bad

points6543210

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0Selection category Extremely good

Economic DITotal of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category) 1× × 100＝
Number of valid responsesN6∑≡6i ≡0i × Ni

N×1× 1006©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research March 20205