TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for November 2023)

The domestic economy experienced a clear trend
towards polarization in industries and regions～ While consumer spending was sluggish, “Lodging, Hotels” hita record high due to factors such as the expansion of inbound tourism ～(Companies researched: 26,972; Valid responses: 11,396; Response rate: 42.3%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp< Trend in November 2023: Slight improvement continues >By industry: Improved in 4 industries, 30 business categories.
Automobile-related and hotel accommodations demand supported theeconomy.

The economic diffusion index (DI) in November 2023 was 44.8, up 0.1
points from the previous month, for a second straight month ofimprovement.
Despite sluggish consumer spending, the domestic economy
continued to improve, albeit slightly, supported by inbound demand andactive public construction projects. However, there was a clear trend
towards polarization in industries and regions.

By scale: “Large firms” was the driving force. “Small to medium-sizedfirms” and “micro firms” experienced sluggish consumer spending.
By region: Improved in 5 out of 10 regions. Although public construction
underpinned regional economies, a polarization trend has emerged.

< Future outlook: Remain unchanged >55

The domestic economy is expected to remain unchanged due to theexpansion of capital investment and inbound demand, while close
attention must be paid to wage trends.

5045

43.1 43.0

42.1 42.1

43.9 44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

4044.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.3 45.4 45.4

After 3 months
After 1 month45.7 45.9 46.2 46.4

After 6 months

46.5 46.6 46.8

46.9

After 1 year

35（Prediction→）

300

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Novyy2022
2023
2024
Projected future DI
43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.7 45.9 46.2 46.4 46.5 46.6 46.8 46.9
Change from November.2023
0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1
Upper
46.6
47.2 47.4 47.6 48.0 48.3 48.7 48.9 49.2 49.3 49.5 49.6*:
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation
model.
Lower
43.2 43.3 43.3 43.2 43.4 43.5 43.7 43.8 43.9 43.9 44.1 44.2
Nov

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

Dec

JanFebMar

AprMayJun

TDB Trends Research November 2023

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theNov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23

PreviousMonthTotal

43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8

0.1

Large Firms

45.0 44.8 44.8 44.2 46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0 47.8 47.9 48.4

0.5

Small to Medium-sized Firms

42.7 42.6 41.6 41.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3 43.8 44.1 44.2

0.1

Micro Firms

41.4 41.3 40.4 40.9 42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5 43.0 43.4 43.1

▲ 0.3

Ratio to the
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23

PreviousMonthAgriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

37.7 37.9 37.4 38.9 41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0 42.1 43.0 40.1

▲ 2.9

Finance44.5 44.3 44.8 43.3 44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8 46.8 47.3 48.0

0.7

Construction

44.9 44.6 44.1 43.7 45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4 47.1 47.5 47.8

0.3Real Estate

45.6 44.8 46.1 46.3 47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6 48.5 48.7 47.9

▲ 0.8

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed

38.8 38.3 38.1 37.0 41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5 42.6 43.4 44.00.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.5 37.9 37.7 39.0 38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6 43.0 41.5 40.8

▲ 0.7

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

41.9 41.0 38.0 37.6 37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2 39.0 40.3 41.5

1.2

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

40.2 39.2 39.8 36.6 38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1 36.9 37.7 37.2

▲ 0.5

Publishing,Printing

32.9 32.4 31.7 31.6 34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9 32.3 32.5 33.1

0.6

Chemical40.8 41.5 40.3 39.2 40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.4 42.7

1.3Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

43.6 43.1 41.7 41.0 41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.8 41.5 41.9

0.4

General Machinery

45.9 44.9 43.3 43.7 43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8 41.2 40.7 40.5

▲ 0.2

Electrical Machinery

45.4 44.5 43.3 43.2 42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8 42.4 42.3 43.0

0.7

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

42.1 41.0 38.7 39.6 41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2 48.3 46.9 47.2

0.3

Medical Instruments and Equipment

46.1 46.3 46.5 49.0 46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9 44.2 42.9 43.4

0.5

Other

35.9 37.0 39.1 36.1 40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3 40.5 39.4 40.7

1.3

41.9 41.5 40.4 40.0 41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2 40.8 41.1 41.6

0.5

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total
Food,BEWerages

38.8 38.2 37.5 38.3 42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1 45.8 43.3 44.5

1.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33.1 34.0 34.7 35.9 38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.1 36.1 36.0

▲ 0.1

39.5 40.2 38.3 37.2 38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0 38.1 38.0 38.3

0.3

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

37.0 33.8 34.8 35.6 37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6 38.5 38.4 40.1

1.7

Chemical

43.8 43.5 42.8 41.7 43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1 44.5 44.9 45.1

0.2

Recycled Resources

43.5 46.2 43.3 43.2 41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9 43.9 45.2 42.4

▲ 2.8

Mining Products

40.2 39.9 38.5 37.1 37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7 36.7 37.0 38.1

1.1

Machinery,Equipment

44.1 43.8 43.0 43.3 45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.8 43.9 44.1

0.2

Other39.6 40.9 40.0 40.9 42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7 41.7 43.1 43.2

0.1

41.0 41.0 40.1 40.1 41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3 41.9 41.7 42.1

0.4

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research November 2023

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to the
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23

PreviousMonth

RetailFood,BEWerages

43.2 42.2 42.3 40.6 42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8 46.5 45.5 44.9

▲ 0.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38.1 35.4 34.2 35.7 39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2 36.6 42.7 39.3

▲ 3.4

Drugs,Sundries

40.6 39.0 37.2 38.5 42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6 42.5 43.8 44.7

0.9

Furniture

36.2 31.0 34.2 33.3 39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2 36.3 27.2 32.4

5.2

Information Machinery and Equipment

35.3 37.2 36.3 37.5 40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2 42.7 42.5 44.0

1.5

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

37.2 35.3 38.2 38.7 40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0 41.7 42.4 40.2

▲ 2.2

Special Merchandise

35.4 34.8 34.4 35.3 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7 39.1 39.4 38.1

▲ 1.3

Various Merchandise

41.4 42.6 42.5 41.0 43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5 45.9 45.3 44.3

▲ 1.0

Other44.9 41.1 42.3 44.8 41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2 47.6 46.2 47.2

1.0

38.2 37.4 37.5 37.7 40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.9 41.2

▲ 0.7

41.6 41.6 38.9 38.0 41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3 42.8 44.1 43.8

▲ 0.3

Electrical Household Appliances,

TotalTransportation,Warehousing

Service

Restaurants

39.1 41.5 38.5 42.4 49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2 51.8 47.4 49.4

2.0

Postal,Telecommunications

50.0 48.3 47.6 44.4 52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8 57.4 59.5 57.1

▲ 2.4

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

32.3 36.7 32.4 32.1 39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5 46.3 44.1 50.0

5.9

Leasing,Rentals

48.4 47.4 46.8 47.4 48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0 49.2 52.5 52.9

0.4

Lodging, Hotels

54.8 52.2 48.3 48.0 59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5 57.6 59.7 64.3

4.6

Recreation

43.8 43.2 42.1 44.1 50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8 46.2 46.3 44.8

▲ 1.5

Broadcasting

41.7 39.5 40.7 41.1 42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1 45.6 42.6 45.6

3.0

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

43.6 45.6 42.9 42.6 45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4 47.8 46.8 49.0

2.2Advertising40.3 39.7 40.2 41.4 43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4 45.2 45.6

0.4

Information

53.0 53.6 53.2 53.8 55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4 55.5 56.0 55.4

▲ 0.6

Labor Dispatching

46.5 50.0 48.5 47.9 47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9 48.9 50.9 52.3

1.4Special Services

48.8 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.2 52.0 51.1

▲ 0.9

Medical,Welfare,Public Health43.6 42.8 42.9 41.5 42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4 42.4 43.6 41.8

▲ 1.8

Education

42.8 41.2 38.4 41.9 44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8 46.4 45.6 42.6

▲ 3.0

Other

43.5 44.0 42.2 44.3 46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9 47.2 47.6 47.2

▲ 0.4

Total

Other

47.3 47.7 46.6 47.4 50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8 50.4 50.8 50.8

0.038.2 36.7 36.5 37.0 38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8 39.2 40.1 38.2

▲ 1.9

Ratio to the
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23

PreviousMonthHokkaido

40.9 40.8 40.1 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8 43.6 43.7 43.3

▲ 0.4

Tohoku40.3 39.4 38.0 37.2 41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.4 41.3

▲ 0.1

kitakanto

43.7 43.1 40.9 41.4 42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1 42.9 43.0 42.6

▲ 0.4

minamikanto

44.4 44.7 44.1 43.9 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6 46.4 46.3 46.7

0.4

Hokuriku

42.2 42.2 40.9 41.2 42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 42.5 42.1 42.3

0.2

Tokai

41.4 41.7 41.0 41.1 42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4 43.6 44.4 45.1

0.7

Kinki

43.0 42.7 42.0 41.8 43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2 43.7 44.1

0.4

Chugoku43.8 43.4 41.9 41.8 44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3 44.1 44.9 44.2

▲ 0.7

Shikoku

40.0 39.3 39.0 38.6 40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8 41.2 41.4 41.3

▲ 0.1

Kyushu45.1 44.8 44.0 44.8 46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3 47.7 48.6 48.7

0.1

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research November 2023

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 26, 972; Valid
responses: 11,396; Response rate: 42.3%)
1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

520
792
913
3,353
591

Kyushu

1,220
1,894
784
362
967

Total

11,396

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

111

Food,Beverages

Finance176Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

87

Drugs,Sundries

57

Furniture

18

Construction

1,758

Real Estate

452
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

327

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

109

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

126

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

221

Special Merchandise

229

90

Various Merchandise

53

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing（2,822）

Wholesale（2,582）

Retail（797）

157

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

153

Chemical366

Transportation,Warehousing

484

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

508

Restaurants

130

General Machinery

480Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

310

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

107

Leasing,Rentals

76

Lodging, Hotels

Others75

Recreation

Food,Beverages

318

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

162

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

12

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,176）

7
16
109
86
113
15

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

192

302

Advertising

109

123

Information

557

256

Labor Dispatching

88

35

Special Services

350
128

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

262

Medical,Welfare,Public HealthMachinery,Equipment824

Education

Others300

Others45231
38

OthersTotal

3.Size58

Large Firms

1,746

15.3%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,650

84.7%

micro Firms

3,757

33.0%

Total

11,396100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,396

TDB Trends Research November 2023

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted November 16– 30 2023

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yenandNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

654

3

2

10

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0

Economic DI＝Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N6i≡0i × Ni

N×1
6×1
6× 100× 100©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research November 2023

5