IEEJ：May ©IEEJ 2023
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (635)

May 2, 2023

A Geopolitical Viewpoint to Analyze International Energy Situation
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
There are various viewpoints from which to examine the international energy situation. We
can examine energy issues from macroeconomic, business, financial and other economic viewpoints,
as well as technological, political and social viewpoints. While these viewpoints are important, thesignificance of the so-called geopolitical viewpoint to understand energy issues has attractedattention recently. This is because energy issues and the international situation closely interact witheach other at a time when supply chains have been developed throughout the world to provide
energy as an indispensable good for our everyday life and economy to every corner of the world
through international trade. Last February, when the Ukraine crisis rattled the world in the wake of
Russian invasion of Ukraine, particularly, the international energy situation was exposed to a great
geopolitical earthquake or upheaval. Now the geopolitical analysis of energy issues is of the mostup-to-date importance.
On the other hand, the concept of geopolitics, while being known widely, is used indifferent ways depending on users, their stances or situations. For this report, I would like to specify
my stance on the relationship between geopolitics and energy first in the following by quoting
relevant passages from my book titled “Geopolitics of Energy.”“Geopolitics is an academic discipline or concept that emerged in the early 20th century.
By World Wars I and II, various famed experts on geopolitics appeared and used geopolitics foranalyzing national strategies. Then, geopolitics has been used for analyzing the internationalsituation during the Cold War and up to now. Geopolitics can be defined variously from a diversityof angles. For consideration in this book, however, geopolitics refers to an academic discipline toanalyze and study the impacts of national geographical conditions (including land, locations,population, races and resources) on international competition and power relations (internationalrelations). Occasionally, geopolitics, instead of being an academic discipline, is used to indicate theimpacts of national geographical conditions on international competition and power relations andtheir situations or realities.
“Nations primarily seek survival and prosperity in pursuit of national interests. National
power is required for realizing survival and prosperity and derives from land, population, resources,technologies, military power and economic power. Geographical conditions are significant forsurvival and prosperity. Geopolitics is intended to apprehend confrontation and cooperation
emerging from relations and interactions between such nations.
“Based on the above, grave international tensions generated by Russia’s invasion intoUkraine can be viewed as a geopolitical issue. In addition, escalating U.S.-China confrontation,
which had been an international issue drawing the most attention in the world before the Ukraine
crisis, can be a geopolitical issue. Geopolitical tensions have shaken the world. Such global turmoil
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and changes have greatly influenced the international energy situation. At the same time, theinternational energy situation has shaken the world, exerting influence on geopolitics. In this way,reciprocal relations between energy issues and the international situation may be considered asenergy geopolitics.” (The above is from p. 20-22 of “Geopolitics of Energy” authored by Ken
Koyama and published by Asahi Shimbun Publications in August 2022).
The above concept indicates how important the geopolitical approach to analyze andunderstand relations between major actors such as the United States, the European Union, China,Russia, the Middle East, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan and consider anecessary energy strategy based on the implications of the analysis is for apprehending the futureinternational energy situation.
An important keyword here is the division of the world. Amid the escalation of U.S.-China
confrontation, the Ukraine crisis has led confrontation and rivalry between the Western andChina-Russia blocs to become clearer and deepen. In addition, the two blocs are waging a tug of war
to woo other countries. The division of the world regarding the broadly defined security isaccompanied by the escalating and deepening north-south confrontation between developed anddeveloping countries over climate change. Even in developed countries, nationalism has grown,bringing about exclusionary or egoistic initiatives. Countries around the world are now urgently
required to work out and implement strategies based on such geopolitical realities.
In such a situation, international frameworks to discuss global issues and explore theirsolutions have essentially become ever more important for supporting national initiatives. Under thedivision of the world, however, some international frameworks have become dysfunctional. Forinstance, the United Nations fails to make key decisions when Western countries and theChina-Russia group as the permanent members of the Security Council confront each other. TheGroup of 20, which was launched in response to a decline in developed countries’ share of the global
economy and their importance, faces difficulty building consensus under the division of the world,
failing to adopt communiques in the recent meetings. So, hopes are growing on the roles of theGroup of Seven as a key framework to address global issues. Amid the current geopolitical situation,
new light is shed on the significance of the G7.
The G7 leaders at their annual meeting are required to discuss energy and climate issues
for the sake of global stability and prosperity. Regarding energy security, they should discuss how tostabilize the international energy market, instead of how to enhance national energy security alone.
Such G7 discussions and actions are required in response to the current energy geopolitics. As forclimate change, an approach focused on the rich G7 countries’ cooperation with the Global South isindispensable for overcoming the new division of the world. Initiatives to achieve common goalsthrough various pathways in cooperation with the Global South, instead of looking down on
developing countries or forcing a single pathway on them, may represent a strategic approach for theG7 in the current geopolitical situation and a steady global decarbonization means.
From the viewpoints of energy, climate change and geopolitics, economic security
regarding critical minerals has attracted global attention as a key factor that exerts great influence on
the energy transition pathway. The situation has turned around from a period when the promotion offree trade and international division of labor was the central rule of the world. At present, how todevelop and secure supply chains for strategic materials on the premise of the division of the world
and geopolitical tensions has become a key policy challenge. International competition to secure astable supply of critical minerals greatly influences energy transition for enhancing energy security
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and climate change countermeasures. Such international competition will be combined with thedevelopment and international implications of industrial policies for successful energy transition, assymbolized by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and other initiatives, to complicate the global
geopolitical situation. How to analyze geopolitical developments and changes in the world has
become an urgent challenge for all countries.
Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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