(Ibaraki University, Japan)

1.Background and Objectives▶ Disruption of High‐speed Rail (Shinkansen) by Big
Natural Disasters

Alternatetransport ofShinkansen

・ Shinkansen lines stopped its operation for a long time in the past disaster.
(Ex. Great East Japan Earthquake)・Nankai Big Earthquake is expected to occur in the near future, and Tokaido
Shinkansen (Highest demand line) might be also damaged.

▲ Temporary Flights are used by Shinkansen users▶ Alternative transport by air▼Airplane with increased flight・Air Transport have taken a role of the alternative transportation ofShinkansen at the past disasters.
・But the transport capacity of the air is usually much less than that ofShinkansen.
⇒Capacity limit of the congested airports（Haneda・Itami etc） andaircrafts.
• How much demand can be generated in alternative

As the demand increases,
the congested airport can’t manage⇒It needs cooperation with other airports▲Neighboring Airport▶Objectives▲Congested Airport

 To calculate the demand of passenger for alternative air routes when Nankai
Earthquake occurs and Tokaido‐Shinkansen is stopped.
 To propose the capacity expansion measures of alternative transport by air.

transport by air?
• How can the capacity of the air be expanded?

2. Estimation of passenger demand for alternative air routes③ Estimation of passenger demand of each air route① Assumption of the disruption section of Shinkansen

1) Estimation of air passengers demand between all OD pairs by the mode choice model
after the change of transport LOS by Shinkansen disruption.
2) For all OD pairs, distribute the air demand to vacant seats of existing regular flights if
there is the convenient regular flight.
3) If the demands of 2) are over the capacity of the existing flights, the frequency of theregular flights are increased.
4) If there are no convenient existing flights, we assume the new temporary air routes areoperated between the nearest airports.

 Disruption area
 Tokaido Shinkansen Mishima station to Nagoya station

Disruption
OsakaTokyo

Mishima

NagoyaDistribute to vacant seats (regular flights) or Temporary Flights② Estimation of mode choice model (Air, Train and Car )P a, bexp
∑ exp

exp
∑ exp
lnDisruption

 Source of data
• Inter‐regional Travel Survey inJapan(2010)• NITAS (MLIT)

exp

P(a,b)：choice probability of mode (a,b)Λ：logsum variable of air and train
Va：Utility value of public transportation and carselection
Vb： Utility value of air and train selection
Vab：Utility value related to two stages

 Source of data
• Inter‐regional Travel Survey in Japan(2010) ・ NITAS (MLIT)• Statistics of air transport in Japan・ flightradar24
 Estimation result(Additional air demand
after the disruption ofShinkansen)

βt-value
Total travel times(min） -1.38E-02-15.7
Total cost(yen）-1.02E-04-13.9
Car constant term
0.380
3.35
0.248
ρ2λ0.619
Time value(yen/hour)
8,087

80,000people/day
Kobe‐Haneda
11,000 people/day

Additional Haneda
airport user
40% increase

UKBFUK

ITM

NHD

NKM

NRT

10,000 people/day

Grey： Demand transported by the existing flights vacant seats
Blue： Demand transported by the increase of the existing flights
Orange: Demand transported by new temporary flights

Itami‐Haneda
13,000 people/day

3. Capacity expansion measures of alternative transport by air① Air Fleet Capacity
・Shift of the regular flights to high‐demand air route from PVG
ICN
less‐demand air route that have enough vacant seats.
NGO・To utilize the international flight fleets which stay inKIX
Japanese airports for enough time to operate one round‐NHD
trip domestic flight.
NRT⇒For the foreign airlines, Cabotage regulation must be0
deregulated for the disaster emergency period.

route over the downtown Tokyo(NHD)

1020
30
40
Number of air fleets (/day）・ At the main international airports, there arelong‐staying aircrafts to some extents.
・ At Narita airport, relatively large number ofinternational aircraft is available even if it islimited to domestic airlines.

30A runway

06 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Arrival time

D runway

Normal operation

 Curfew

C runway

Foreign airlines's aircraft of internatinal route (Lv2)

Narita airport：affording of spot(Lv1)

Narita airport：Using of takeoff and landing are restricted (Lv2)

Ibaraki airport

Haneda airport：Empty spot by decreasing flights(Lv1)

 It is assumed that opening incase of disaster
6:00
Normal operation

050

100

150

Haneda airport： Using of center city route (Lv2)450• if special operations are possible, airport capacity for additional flights can be created.
• Air fleet capacity is more severe than airport capacity, but capacity expansion
measures like utilization of international flight fleets can be useful option.
• we estimates the users benefit of the air fleet capacity expansion measures in case thatthe international flight fleets at main airports are used for the domestic air routes totransport the passengers of alternative air routes.
NRT
ITM
UKB

10・ Use of runway in times when takeoff andlanding are restricted(NRT)
23:00

60

200
250
300
350
400
Number of aircrafts
Domestic airlines's aircraft of internatinal route (Lv1)

20

Foreign aircraft with parking time of more than 4.5
Domestic aircraft with parking time of more than 4.5
Affording of landing slot

City Center（Tokyo）

B runway

50

Potential Demand335(aircraft/day)

Regular flights decreased(Lv1)

NRT
KIX

・ Capacity expansion by the use of new air

Lv1: Can be realized
Lv2: Special operations

FA Parking time 6～(h)

HND
NRT
KIX
UKB

② Airport capacity

FA Parking time 4.5～6(h)

HND
NRT
KIX

Narita airport have vacant slots and available
international aircrafts

DA Parking time 6～(h)DA：Domestic airlines FA：Foreign airlines

Number of aircraft(Foreign airlines can not usually transport domestic
passengers in Japan by cabotage regulation)

Capacity of Airport (Lv2)
Capacity of Airport (Lv1)
Capacity of Air fleets (Lv2)
Capacity of Air fleets (Lv1)

DA Parking time 4.5～6(h)expDomestic airlines & Foreign airlines

Economic effect ( milliondollars/day）Domestic airlines
Domestic airlines & Foreign airlines

Number of people tocarry(thousand people/day）Domestic airlines
Domestic airlines & Foreign airlines
Domestic airlines
Domestic airlines & Foreign airlines
Domestic airlines

04. Conclusion

12345678

LSij：Logsum value of zone ij
Vijm： Utility of transport zone ij or route m
Θ, λ ： parameters in mode‐choice model

As a result, we can secure bigger
transport capacity than in the caseof the Great East Japan
9Earthquake.

• We estimated the potential demand for alternative transport by air and thecapacity expansion measures in case of Tokaido Shinkansen disruption.
• In the current operation, the capacity of airports and air fleets are much less thanthe potential demand, but it is possible to cover demand by conducting special
management.