TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for May 2020)

Decline in production activities continued indomestic economy
e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Rapid economic contraction has come to a halt,
but global economic outlook is a cause for concern ～（Companies researched: 23,675; Valid responses: 11,979; Response rate: 50.6%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry : Five of the ten industries deteriorated. Lowest-ever
economic DI was recorded in seven business categories.

< Overview of May 2020: Recession phase >The economic diffusion index (DI) in May 2020 was 25.2, down 0.6 points fromthe previous month, worsening for the eighth consecutive month. Rapid
contraction of the domestic economy came to a halt, but production activities
continued to decline.

By size : Decline in all sizes for the eighth consecutive month, while
creating new demands.
By region : Nine of the ten regions, and 33 prefectures deteriorated, with
the impact of reduced movement of people and goods.

< Future outlook: Recession continues >The recessionary trend is expected to temporarily stop, while there aredomestic and foreign matters of concern.

*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2020

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to tHM
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

PrFDiousMonthTotal

45.4 45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2

▲ 0.6

Large Firms

48.8 48.7 47.7 47.9 48.0 47.1 47.0 45.7 45.3 42.0 34.8 28.2 28.1

▲ 0.1

Small to Medium-sized Firms

44.6 44.2 43.9 43.9 44.2 43.2 42.8 41.7 41.1 38.0 32.0 25.3 24.6

▲ 0.7

Micro Firms

44.5 44.1 43.8 44.2 45.1 43.9 43.5 42.1 41.4 38.8 32.3 25.4 24.6

▲ 0.8

Ratio to tHM
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

PrFDious
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

40.5 43.2 39.1 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.5 41.7 38.4 37.9 32.8 28.2 25.1

Finance44.7 44.8 45.1 44.7 45.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 44.8 42.2 33.3 27.3 28.7

1.4Construction

51.7 51.6 51.7 52.1 53.1 52.1 52.2 51.6 50.0 47.8 41.5 33.9 33.5

▲ 0.4

Real Estate

47.6 48.3 47.4 46.5 48.0 45.9 46.0 44.2 45.9 42.0 31.6 21.9 23.5

1.6

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed41.3 40.3 40.4 41.1 39.8 39.1 39.7 39.9 38.0 34.5 28.4 24.8 24.6

▲ 0.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.6 36.5 36.4 36.9 36.3 36.1 34.6 32.6 30.5 29.3 23.2 16.7 17.7

1.0

Construction Materials,Furniture,

45.4 43.5 43.8 45.2 44.1 44.8 43.8 40.2 39.9 37.2 33.4 29.2 26.5

▲ 2.7Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

43.0 41.7 39.6 42.3 42.8 40.2 41.7 40.6 37.3 32.0 29.2 24.0 21.4

▲ 2.6

Publishing,Printing

34.3 33.9 32.5 33.1 34.1 33.0 32.7 32.9 30.9 29.7 23.1 16.8 14.4

▲ 2.4

Chemical

43.9 42.5 41.9 41.8 41.0 41.2 40.6 40.1 39.0 35.8 32.1 27.5 25.3

▲ 2.2Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

42.9 41.8 41.5 41.2 40.4 39.8 38.1 37.6 36.3 32.9 29.0 23.6 21.5

▲ 2.1

General Machinery

46.0 45.1 44.0 41.5 41.1 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.3 35.4 31.1 25.3 23.6

▲ 1.7

Electrical Machinery

43.1 43.0 42.8 43.9 41.2 42.2 40.5 40.4 41.0 38.5 32.7 27.6 26.1

▲ 1.5

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

48.1 47.5 46.4 43.4 42.3 43.5 41.2 40.9 39.4 36.5 34.2 22.2 18.2

▲ 4.0

44.4 42.4 43.9 43.4 42.0 41.3 42.0 39.9 40.4 39.0 34.8 27.2 26.3

▲ 0.9

40.2 40.2 38.0 40.7 41.8 37.4 38.4 38.0 36.9 36.8 31.1 20.7 19.8

▲ 0.9

42.9 42.0 41.5 41.4 40.6 40.3 39.6 38.6 37.6 34.9 30.3 24.7 23.0

▲ 1.7

Food,BEWerages

40.8 40.4 38.8 39.0 38.8 38.1 37.9 37.4 37.3 33.1 25.6 21.3 21.0

▲ 0.3

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33.2 31.6 29.8 30.8 31.6 28.8 28.8 26.5 26.2 22.0 16.4 10.3 11.4

1.1

44.7 43.8 44.7 44.6 46.0 45.1 43.4 43.1 42.8 38.5 34.4 27.9 27.7

▲ 0.2

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

39.0 36.4 37.0 37.1 38.0 37.7 36.3 35.0 34.9 33.5 27.5 22.0 19.1

▲ 2.9

Chemical41.8 41.2 42.7 42.0 42.7 41.0 40.4 39.0 38.7 35.5 33.2 28.9 27.4

▲ 1.5

Recycled Resources

40.2 37.1 32.8 32.8 30.6 34.8 29.0 33.3 30.8 27.1 21.2 18.7 18.8

0.1

40.8 40.4 39.0 38.8 37.6 38.0 37.0 34.8 33.9 31.9 27.8 23.2 22.8

▲ 0.4

Machinery,Equipment

44.2 44.4 43.8 43.3 44.6 42.7 42.3 41.7 41.2 38.2 33.0 25.9 25.1

▲ 0.8

Other40.6 40.6 40.2 40.2 40.7 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 31.5 26.5 21.4 19.8

▲ 1.641.9 41.4 41.0 40.8 41.4 39.9 39.3 38.4 37.9 34.4 29.4 23.7 23.0

▲ 0.7

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

Manufacturing▲ 3.1

Precision Machinery,
Medical Instruments and Equipment
Other
Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,
Mining Products

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2020

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to tHM
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

PrFDiousMonthRetailFood,BEWerages

44.8 42.9 41.5 41.3 41.8 40.5 40.2 38.4 39.1 36.7 25.8 26.3 27.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.9 36.6 34.6 36.5 37.9 32.7 31.5 28.7 28.0 24.2 16.2 11.4

8.8

▲ 2.6

Drugs,Sundries

41.0 38.5 40.0 37.7 40.6 35.8 37.3 40.2 37.7 34.7 27.5 28.7 25.3

▲ 3.4

Furniture

39.6 48.5 40.9 45.0 53.0 33.3 26.9 31.8 31.9 29.2 22.6 10.8 15.54.7

39.1 43.5 34.3 38.9 45.0 34.3 32.3 38.1 38.2 36.0 28.4 19.3 21.9

2.6

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

41.5 42.5 39.2 41.1 41.4 34.5 31.4 31.9 36.7 32.9 27.9 17.0 15.8

▲ 1.2

Special Merchandise

41.3 41.1 40.6 40.7 43.5 38.2 39.1 36.0 35.2 34.7 27.4 20.2 19.9

▲ 0.3

Various Merchandise

43.8 44.7 39.3 38.9 43.1 36.5 36.5 36.2 37.4 34.4 29.3 32.3 29.9

▲ 2.4

Other

39.6 46.3 41.7 41.7 40.5 48.1 40.7 47.9 48.1 43.9 31.8 26.9 30.6

3.7

41.6 42.0 39.5 40.2 42.6 37.0 36.1 35.8 36.3 34.1 26.7 21.2 21.1

▲ 0.1

Electrical Household Appliances,
Information Machinery and Equipment

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service1.1

46.7 45.6 44.5 45.5 46.0 44.9 45.1 42.6 39.5 34.0 27.7 22.4 22.7

0.3

Restaurants

40.6 42.9 39.6 38.1 43.6 37.3 39.4 40.7 41.0 32.3 14.2

5.5

1.2

Postal,Telecommunications

56.7 60.0 58.3 60.6 56.9 56.1 59.5 52.8 64.6 57.1 50.0 30.3 33.3

3.0Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

55.6 54.5 54.2 52.6 51.3 51.2 52.2 47.4 52.4 46.7 40.5 28.4 32.4

4.0

Leasing,Rentals

50.9 52.5 51.8 51.7 53.5 54.5 53.1 50.4 50.8 46.9 34.0 27.8 29.1

1.3

Lodging, Hotels

50.0 44.9 40.3 39.9 47.2 41.3 42.0 39.1 38.5 23.2

7.0

1.5

2.9

1.4

Recreation

42.0 41.5 41.8 40.9 38.7 38.2 40.7 37.5 39.4 35.7 17.0

5.6

9.3

3.7

Broadcasting

44.1 43.3 41.1 45.2 43.1 42.9 41.7 38.2 38.1 38.9 29.8 22.9 22.5

▲ 0.4

4.3

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

48.2 48.8 49.3 49.8 48.6 49.1 47.3 46.6 46.4 42.6 36.0 27.5 26.6

▲ 0.9

Advertising40.5 40.7 40.4 38.9 40.3 40.4 39.6 37.8 40.0 34.1 21.3 11.3 10.7

▲ 0.6

Information

58.0 57.8 58.5 58.7 57.7 57.4 57.8 56.2 56.5 54.2 43.9 33.7 34.0

0.3

Labor Dispatching

53.9 52.8 52.7 51.0 53.2 53.3 50.9 46.2 49.2 42.5 34.1 21.0 20.0

▲ 1.0

Special Services

49.5 50.1 49.9 51.1 51.8 51.5 50.8 49.9 50.3 45.8 40.4 31.4 32.20.8

Medical,Welfare,Public Health47.8 47.0 48.7 46.5 47.3 46.5 48.5 47.7 47.8 43.2 35.9 26.4 26.1

▲ 0.3

Education

43.6 44.0 41.1 39.5 40.0 42.4 37.8 43.1 41.4 40.0 29.7 13.9 18.8

4.9

Other

47.9 48.5 47.9 48.3 48.4 47.9 47.9 45.6 46.2 39.8 29.2 21.2 21.8

0.6

Total

Other

50.6 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.0 50.6 50.4 48.8 49.5 45.1 35.3 25.8 26.1

0.3

43.2 42.6 44.1 43.2 42.1 43.1 40.4 41.7 42.7 39.2 29.8 24.4 26.2

1.8

Ratio to tHM
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

PrFDiousMonthHokkaido

45.3 45.1 45.7 46.4 46.6 45.7 45.0 43.8 42.4 39.0 31.0 28.4 27.5

▲ 0.9

Tohoku42.2 41.9 41.7 41.7 43.2 41.9 42.2 40.9 38.8 36.7 30.7 26.0 25.3

▲ 0.7

kitakanto

43.1 42.5 42.5 42.6 42.2 40.9 40.0 40.0 39.4 36.9 31.8 25.8 24.5

▲ 1.3

minamikanto

46.0 46.0 45.5 45.7 46.1 45.5 45.5 44.3 44.5 41.1 34.1 26.3 25.5

▲ 0.8

Hokuriku

44.6 44.2 43.5 44.1 43.5 42.1 40.4 39.5 37.6 35.6 29.7 24.9 25.10.2

Tokai46.8 45.8 44.7 45.0 45.2 43.6 42.7 41.8 40.6 37.3 31.4 23.7 23.4

▲ 0.3

Kinki

45.0 44.6 44.0 43.8 43.9 42.2 41.9 40.5 39.8 36.3 30.4 23.9 23.8

▲ 0.1

Chugoku45.6 45.5 45.0 44.8 45.0 44.0 43.6 42.6 41.2 39.0 33.8 27.0 25.7

▲ 1.3

Shikoku46.7 44.8 43.1 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.0 43.8 42.7 39.5 36.4 30.8 28.5

▲ 2.3

Kyushu46.9 47.0 47.6 46.3 47.1 46.5 46.8 45.1 45.2 41.5 35.3 27.5 27.4

▲ 0.1

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 2020

3Appendix
1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,675; Validresponses: 11,979; Response rate: 50.6%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

Tokai

596
823
926
3,696
665

Kyushu

1,341
2,010
655
364
903

Total

11,979Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

63

Finance133

Construction

1,974

Real Estate384

Manufacturing（3,280）Wholesale（3,171）

Retail（513）

Food,Beverages

79

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

34

Drugs,Sundries

27

Furniture

14

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

45

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

396

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

131

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

250

Special Merchandise

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

113

Various Merchandise

48

Publishing,Printing

205

Others1296
158

Chemical452

Transportation,Warehousing

508

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

573

Restaurants

55

General Machinery

510

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

360

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

818110

Leasing,Rentals

134

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

85

Lodging, Hotels

34

Others95

Recreation

63

Food,Beverages

426

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

210

Service（1,906）

17

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

205

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

365

Advertising

121

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

111

Information

509

Chemical287

Labor Dispatching

75

40

Special Services

304

Medical,Welfare,Public Health132

Recycled Resources

335

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

1,012

Machinery,Equipment

385

Others31

Education

200

Others47Others
Total

11,9793.SizeLarge Firms

2,143

17.9%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,836

82.1%

micro Firms

3,509

29.3%

Total

11,979100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research May 20204

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology
Industry

Internet-based survey conducted May 18 – 31 2020

Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Service**

Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms

No. of Employee: Below 20

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
goodfairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6543210

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0Selection category Extremely good

Economic DI
Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category) 1× × 100＝
Number of valid responsesN6∑≡6i ≡0i × Ni

N×1× 100
6©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research May 20205