IEEJ：June 2020 ©IEEJ 2020
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (483)June 5, 2020

Social Unrest Shaking U.S. and Other Major Powers under Corona DisasterKen Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanThe COVID-19 pandemic is still expanding globally, having infected far more than 6 million
people and killed nearly 400,000. The United States remains the hardest hit in the world, while
infections are rapidly increasing in Russia, Brazil and India. Meanwhile, Western countries known sofar as the epicenter of the pandemic are viewed as having seen infections peak. As these countries havereopened businesses and eased or lifted travel and outing restrictions following the alleged peakingout, however, concern is growing that such measures would lead infections to expand again or that
second and third waves of infections would come.
The COVID-19 pandemic expansion has brought about huge human, economic and social
damage. Each national government has spent huge money on preventing the infection expansion,
supporting the seriously deteriorated economy, protecting employment and backing economicactivities and livelihood. While U.S. and other stock prices have stabilized and posted hikes amid
hopes of economic recovery, real economic conditions have remained very severe, with future
conditions staying uncertain. Job losses have risen sharply, heightening social unrest. It is pointed outthat the corona disaster has inflicted serious damage particularly on low-income and other sociallyvulnerable people, bringing about great social unrest and divide. Under such circumstances, we must
pay attention to various problems and destabilization signs seen in the domestic situations of majorcountries.
The U.S. situation is a matter of special concern. Social unrest and disturbances arespreading as the death of an African American man seized by white police officers has prompted
nationwide protest rallies. On May 25, the African American man died after white police officers
handcuffed him and kneeled on his neck in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The spread of video footage ofthe arrest triggered rapid expansion of nationwide protest rallies in a manner to ignite discontent withthe deep-rooted racial discrimination, leading to a great social problem. While protest rallies have beenmostly peaceful, some rallies have escalated into violent ones involving riots and looting, signalingsocial destabilization. Some states have imposed curfews and mobilized National Guard troops, but
the United States has fallen short of restoring calm. While President Donald Trump and Defense
Secretary Mark Esper have differed over whether to mobilize federal military troops to deal withviolent rallies, a mainstream view might have been that their mobilization is not required now.
As noted above, the Minneapolis incident has ignited discontent with the racial
discrimination problem that has been deep rooted in U.S. society. Cited as a factor behind the social
unrest prolonged over more than two weeks after the incident is an indescribable sense of insecurity
that has been lingering in society due to the U.S. economy’s substantial contraction and thedramatically deteriorating employment situation indicated by more than 40 million unemployment
benefit applications under the corona disaster. As it is pointed out that many socially vulnerable people1

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have suffered great damage including economic and job losses, social discontent and unrest might
have risen greatly. Another unignorable factor is the U.S. social divide that has been pointed out over
several years. While any society is required to be united to overcome a grave problem like the coronadisaster, the social divide affects unity. The social divide might have been combined with huge human,economic and social damage inflicted by the corona disaster to further increase stress in U.S. society.
How will the social unrest end? No optimism can be warranted. In such situation, the coming heatedpresidential election campaign battle between Republican President Trump and Democratic candidate
Joseph Biden could deepen the social divide. Would the divide be healed through and after thepresidential election to stabilize U.S. society in a manner to enhance U.S. commitments to theinternational community or be deepened to increase social difficulties to cause the United States more
inward-looking and reduce U.S. influence on the world? The future of the Unites States has greatchallenges and uncertainties.
Not only the United States is plagued with various domestic challenges under the coronadisaster. China experienced the world’s first coronavirus outbreak and seemed to successfully containthe outbreak so far by taking such measures as powerful lockdowns. Although its economy
substantially contracted in the first quarter, China restored industrial production gradually after theoutbreak peaked, launching economic reconstruction. Based on the experience, China has promoted
the so-called mask diplomacy for international cooperation, providing other countries with supplies
for treating and preventing coronavirus infections. However, the corona disaster has exerted various
unignorable social impacts on China.
In a development symbolizing such impacts, the Chinese government refrained fromannouncing an economic growth target for 2020 at the National People’s Congress convened on May
22, after the disaster unusually forced the convening to be postponed from March. While economic
recovery moves and initiatives are seen, great uncertainties for 2020 have made it impossible for thegovernment to give officially any economic growth target. Even after high economic growth in the2000s, China had annually set a firm economic growth target. The government gave the target at 6.06.5% for 2019 at last year’s National People’s Congress. The actual growth rate came to 6.1%.
To achieve its commitment to double gross domestic product from 2010 to 2020, China must
expand its economy by some 6%. The construction of a more affluent society is very important forChina saddled with the world’s largest population, various gaps including those between urban andrural regions, between coastal and inland regions and between elite and non-elite classes, andcomplicated ethnical issues. In this sense, it is unusual for the government to refrain from announcing
any economic growth target for 2020, indicating how great the corona disaster’s influence is. Even
without a growth target given, it would grow even more important for China to promote economic
recovery and the construction of an affluent society for domestic political reasons. While whether
Hong Kong’s high-level autonomy would be protected was attracting global attention, the National
People’s Congress enacted the Hong Kong national security law, highlighting Beijing’s hardline
external stance. As China’s relations with Taiwan have grown difficult, Beijing has become even moresensitive to the Taiwan issue. In such situation, domestic political stability would grow even more
important for the Chinese government.
The corona disaster’s impacts on the domestic situation or domestic politics are also
conspicuous for Russia’s Vladimir Putin regime facing a sluggish economy and falling approval
ratings. In Europe or the European Union as a region rather than a country, differences over the2

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European Reconstruction Fund and other issues have emerged due partly to the disaster’s differing
impacts on member countries, indicating that centrifugal force rather than centripetal force is working.
A serious problem like the corona disaster tends to ignite underlying social gaps, divides anddiscontent. In the future, we will have to closely watch how the corona disaster would affect domestic
situations and international relations in various countries including great powers.

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