TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for October 2023)

The economy slightly improved for the first time in three months,
supported by strong tourism in each region～ Active events and semiconductor-related demand
were positive factors ～(Companies researched: 27,052; Valid responses: 11,506; Response rate: 42.5%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp

By industry: Improved in 9 out of 10 industries. The bustle in each region
and IT demand were positive factors.

< Trend in October 2023: Slightly improved >The economic diffusion index (DI) in October 2023 was 44.7, up 0.3
points from the previous month, showing the first improvement in threemonths.
The domestic economy improved slightly, due to positive factors suchas active events and inbound tourism demand, as well as
semiconductor-related demand.

By scale: Companies of all sizes showed an improvement for the first timein five months. “Construction”, “Manufacturing”, and “Service”
increased in all scales.
By region: Improved in 7 out of 10 regions. Strong tourism was a positive
factor in each region.

< Future outlook: Remain unchanged >55

The domestic economy is expected to remain unchanged, supported byconsumer spending and capital investment, despite the risks posed byoverseas situations.

5045

42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1

40

43.9 44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

44.4 44.7 44.8 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.6

45.8 46.1 46.2 46.4 46.4 46.6

46.7

42.1
After 3 months
After 1 month

After 6 months

After 1 year

35300

（Prediction→）

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct2022
2023
2024
Projected future DI
42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.6 45.8 46.1 46.2 46.4 46.4 46.6 46.7
Change from October.2023
0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0
Upper
46.5
47.0 47.3 47.5 47.9 48.2 48.6 48.8 49.0 49.2 49.3 49.5*:
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation
model.
Lower
43.1 43.2 43.2 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.9 44.0

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDOct

TDB Trends Research October 2023

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theOct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23

PreviousMonthTotal

42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.70.3

Large Firms

44.2 45.0 44.8 44.8 44.2 46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0 47.8 47.90.1

Small to Medium-sized Firms

42.3 42.7 42.6 41.6 41.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3 43.8 44.1

0.3

Micro Firms

41.1 41.4 41.3 40.4 40.9 42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5 43.0 43.4

0.4

Ratio to theOct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

36.4 37.7 37.9 37.4 38.9 41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0 42.1 43.0

0.9

Finance43.2 44.5 44.3 44.8 43.3 44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8 46.8 47.3

0.5

Construction

44.2 44.9 44.6 44.1 43.7 45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4 47.1 47.5

0.4Real Estate

44.0 45.6 44.8 46.1 46.3 47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6 48.5 48.7

0.2

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed38.2 38.8 38.3 38.1 37.0 41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5 42.6 43.4

0.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

35.7 36.5 37.9 37.7 39.0 38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6 43.0 41.5

▲ 1.5

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

40.9 41.9 41.0 38.0 37.6 37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2 39.0 40.3

1.3Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

40.4 40.2 39.2 39.8 36.6 38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1 36.9 37.7

0.8

Publishing,Printing

31.8 32.9 32.4 31.7 31.6 34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9 32.3 32.5

0.2

Chemical40.8 40.8 41.5 40.3 39.2 40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.4

0.2

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

43.9 43.6 43.1 41.7 41.0 41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.8 41.5

1.7

General Machinery45.8 45.9 44.9 43.3 43.7 43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8 41.2 40.7

▲ 0.5

Electrical Machinery

44.8 45.4 44.5 43.3 43.2 42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8 42.4 42.3

▲ 0.1

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

42.2 42.1 41.0 38.7 39.6 41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2 48.3 46.9

▲ 1.4

Medical Instruments and Equipment

46.1 46.1 46.3 46.5 49.0 46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9 44.2 42.9

▲ 1.3

Other35.4 35.9 37.0 39.1 36.1 40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3 40.5 39.4

▲ 1.1

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,Total

41.6 41.9 41.5 40.4 40.0 41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2 40.8 41.1

0.3

Food,BEWerages

37.4 38.8 38.2 37.5 38.3 42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1 45.8 43.3

▲ 2.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

32.4 33.1 34.0 34.7 35.9 38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.1 36.1

▲ 2.0

39.8 39.5 40.2 38.3 37.2 38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0 38.1 38.0

▲ 0.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

37.1 37.0 33.8 34.8 35.6 37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6 38.5 38.4

▲ 0.1

Chemical

42.6 43.8 43.5 42.8 41.7 43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1 44.5 44.9

0.4

Recycled Resources

46.3 43.5 46.2 43.3 43.2 41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9 43.9 45.2

1.3

Mining Products

39.7 40.2 39.9 38.5 37.1 37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7 36.7 37.0

0.3

Machinery,Equipment

44.1 44.1 43.8 43.0 43.3 45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.8 43.9

0.1

Other

39.0 39.6 40.9 40.0 40.9 42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7 41.7 43.1

1.440.6 41.0 41.0 40.1 40.1 41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3 41.9 41.7

▲ 0.2

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research October 2023

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theOct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23

PreviousMonthRetailFood,BEWerages

39.6 43.2 42.2 42.3 40.6 42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8 46.5 45.5

▲ 1.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38.7 38.1 35.4 34.2 35.7 39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2 36.6 42.7

6.1

Drugs,Sundries

38.9 40.6 39.0 37.2 38.5 42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6 42.5 43.8

1.3

Furniture

37.8 36.2 31.0 34.2 33.3 39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2 36.3 27.2

▲ 9.1

Information Machinery and Equipment

35.1 35.3 37.2 36.3 37.5 40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2 42.7 42.5

▲ 0.2

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

37.6 37.2 35.3 38.2 38.7 40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0 41.7 42.4

0.7

Special Merchandise

33.5 35.4 34.8 34.4 35.3 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7 39.1 39.4

0.3

Various Merchandise

41.3 41.4 42.6 42.5 41.0 43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5 45.9 45.3

▲ 0.6

Other36.5 44.9 41.1 42.3 44.8 41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2 47.6 46.2

▲ 1.4

36.8 38.2 37.4 37.5 37.7 40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.90.5

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service40.7 41.6 41.6 38.9 38.0 41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3 42.8 44.1

1.3

Restaurants

39.0 39.1 41.5 38.5 42.4 49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2 51.8 47.4

▲ 4.4

Postal,Telecommunications

52.4 50.0 48.3 47.6 44.4 52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8 57.4 59.5

2.1

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

31.1 32.3 36.7 32.4 32.1 39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5 46.3 44.1

▲ 2.2

Leasing,Rentals

47.5 48.4 47.4 46.8 47.4 48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0 49.2 52.5

3.3

Lodging, Hotels

53.3 54.8 52.2 48.3 48.0 59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5 57.6 59.7

2.1

Recreation

45.0 43.8 43.2 42.1 44.1 50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8 46.2 46.3

0.1

Broadcasting

43.1 41.7 39.5 40.7 41.1 42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1 45.6 42.6

▲ 3.0

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

42.8 43.6 45.6 42.9 42.6 45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4 47.8 46.8

▲ 1.0Advertising40.9 40.3 39.7 40.2 41.4 43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4 45.2

▲ 0.2

Information

52.3 53.0 53.6 53.2 53.8 55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4 55.5 56.0

0.5

Labor Dispatching

48.8 46.5 50.0 48.5 47.9 47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9 48.9 50.9

2.0

Special Services

49.0 48.8 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.2 52.0

0.8

Medical,Welfare,Public Health43.2 43.6 42.8 42.9 41.5 42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4 42.4 43.6

1.2

Education

42.1 42.8 41.2 38.4 41.9 44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8 46.4 45.6

▲ 0.8

43.3 43.5 44.0 42.2 44.3 46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9 47.2 47.6

0.4

47.1 47.3 47.7 46.6 47.4 50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8 50.4 50.8

0.4

37.9 38.2 36.7 36.5 37.0 38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8 39.2 40.1

0.9

Other
Total

Other

Ratio to theOct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23

PreviousMonthHokkaido

41.2 40.9 40.8 40.1 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8 43.6 43.7

0.1

Tohoku39.9 40.3 39.4 38.0 37.2 41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.4

▲ 0.1

kitakanto

43.7 43.7 43.1 40.9 41.4 42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1 42.9 43.0

0.1

minamikanto

43.8 44.4 44.7 44.1 43.9 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6 46.4 46.3

▲ 0.1

Hokuriku

42.3 42.2 42.2 40.9 41.2 42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 42.5 42.1

▲ 0.4

Tokai41.1 41.4 41.7 41.0 41.1 42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4 43.6 44.4

0.8

Kinki

42.3 43.0 42.7 42.0 41.8 43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2 43.7

0.5

Chugoku42.8 43.8 43.4 41.9 41.8 44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3 44.1 44.9

0.8

Shikoku40.3 40.0 39.3 39.0 38.6 40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8 41.2 41.4

0.2

Kyushu44.0 45.1 44.8 44.0 44.8 46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3 47.7 48.6

0.9

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research October 2023

3Appendix1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 27, 052; Validresponses: 11,506; Response rate: 42.5%)
1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

542
758
926
3,396
605

Kyushu

1,218
1,910
767
385
999

Total

11,506

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

114

Food,Beverages

Finance

177

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

89

Drugs,Sundries

65

Furniture

19

Construction

1,802

Real Estate

466
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

338

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

104

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts125Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

224

Special Merchandise

244

91

Various Merchandise

46

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing（2,844）Wholesale（2,620）

Retail（765）104Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

158

Chemical

385

Transportation,Warehousing

499

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

510

Restaurants

91

General Machinery

466

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

308

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

107

Leasing,Rentals

73

Lodging, Hotels

Others80

Recreation

Food,Beverages

339

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing160Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

13

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,182）

7
17
118
88
122
18

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

200

301

Advertising

112

131

Information

564

244

Labor Dispatching

89

35

Special Services

360
133

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

271

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment824

Education

Others315

Others42221
37

OthersTotal

3.Size60

Large Firms

1,772

15.4%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,734

84.6%

micro Firms

3,832

33.3%Total

11,506100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,506

TDB Trends Research October 2023

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted October 18– 31 2023

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely goodgood

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6543210

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0

Economic DI＝Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N×

16×16× 100

× 100©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTDTDB Trends Research October 20235