TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for January 2022)

Domestic economy worsened for the first timein five months due to omicron variant

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Suppressed corporate activities again, a surge in raw materials costalso exerted downward pressure ～(Companies researched: 24,072; Valid responses: 11,981; Response rate: 49.8%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: The spread of the omicron variant became a negative factor
in many business sectors.

< Overview of January 2022: Heavy slump >The economic diffusion index (DI) in January 2022 was 41.2, down 2.7 points
from the previous month, and worsened for the first time in five months. The
domestic economy experienced a heavy slump, such as corporate activities were
suppressed again due to a rapid increase in the numbers of infection.

By size: Worsened in all sized for the first time in five months, with aheavy slump in SMEs.
By region: Worsened in all ten regions for the first time in five months,
with downward factors of the infection spreading and heavy snow.

< Future outlook: Gradual recovery following a temporary depression >The economy is believed to be on a gradual trend of recovery following
a temporary depression. However, close attention must be paid todownside risk trends.

5550
45403533.9

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5

39.1

40.7

39.2 39.9

41.5

43.1 43.9

41.2 40.9 42.4

45.3
43.1 43.7 44.4

46.1 46.5 46.9

47.3 47.7 47.9

After 1 year
After 1 month

After 3 months

After 6 months

30025（Prediction→）

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2021
2022
2023
Projected future DI 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5 43.1 43.9 41.2 40.9 42.4 43.1 43.7 44.4 45.3 46.1 46.5 46.9 47.3 47.7 47.9
Change from Jan.2022-0.3 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.7
Upper
41.7 43.7 44.6 45.5 46.4 47.6 48.5 49.1 49.7 50.2 50.7 51.0*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.
Lower
40.1 41.2 41.6 41.9 42.4 43.1 43.7 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.7 44.7

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2022

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theJan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

PreviousMonthTotal

33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5 43.1 43.9 41.2

▲ 2.7

Large Firms

36.3 38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2 41.9 42.9 41.4 42.5 43.8 45.7 45.9 44.0

▲ 1.9Small to Medium-sized Firms

33.4 35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9 38.5 40.2 38.8 39.4 41.0 42.5 43.5 40.6

▲ 2.9

Micro Firms

32.8 34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6 37.1 38.4 37.4 38.7 40.0 41.3 42.1 39.1

▲ 3.0

Ratio to theJan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

PreviousMonth

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

30.9 33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7 39.1 38.5 37.0 38.1 41.1 42.6 38.2 38.7

0.5Finance36.1 38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5 41.7 42.8 39.7 41.5 43.0 43.3 43.8 41.9

▲ 1.9Construction

39.4 40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0 41.6 42.7 42.5 43.7 44.7 45.4 45.2 43.3

▲ 1.9

Real Estate

35.5 38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4 40.9 41.8 39.4 42.6 43.6 44.7 46.7 42.9

▲ 3.8

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed30.7 30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6 34.0 35.5 32.8 34.1 38.1 39.6 40.8 35.4

▲ 5.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

24.5 26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 29.3 31.0 29.3 28.2 30.2 31.4 34.1 31.6

▲ 2.5

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.3 37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6 40.1 42.5 41.2 42.7 43.7 44.9 46.4 44.1

▲ 2.3

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

27.6 29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5 34.9 37.2 36.6 36.2 39.3 41.4 42.9 40.2

▲ 2.7

Publishing,Printing

20.2 22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2 27.1 27.4 25.6 27.1 29.4 30.2 32.1 28.6

▲ 3.5

Chemical

38.0 40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3 44.5 46.3 45.0 41.9 42.6 45.7 46.7 44.5

▲ 2.2Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

33.9 37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9 43.4 46.4 45.1 43.8 44.2 45.9 46.4 44.6

▲ 1.8General Machinery

33.6 36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2 43.7 45.9 46.6 46.2 47.2 47.8 49.1 47.7

▲ 1.4

Electrical Machinery

36.1 39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8 45.0 46.8 45.9 45.8 47.5 47.0 48.5 46.6

▲ 1.9

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

40.1 40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3 47.1 50.6 48.2 37.6 37.7 43.4 45.6 41.6

▲ 4.0

Medical Instruments and Equipment

37.9 42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7 49.1 50.5 50.9 50.8 50.4 49.8 53.0 52.0

▲ 1.0Other31.5 31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0 34.1 37.6 33.9 35.3 35.5 36.9 41.1 35.9

▲ 5.2

33.4 35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0 40.6 42.7 41.5 40.7 42.1 43.6 45.1 42.5

▲ 2.6

Food,BEWerages

26.8 29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 30.7 31.3 29.1 29.8 33.0 36.9 38.2 32.7

▲ 5.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

21.2 19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7 22.5 22.8 21.2 22.4 24.5 27.4 29.3 27.6

▲ 1.7

34.7 34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5 36.3 37.8 37.7 39.6 39.9 42.6 42.4 40.0

▲ 2.4

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

26.3 29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6 31.4 31.2 29.2 29.6 31.8 35.0 34.2 32.7

▲ 1.5

Chemical34.3 37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7 42.0 42.4 40.7 42.2 44.2 45.3 45.3 43.2

▲ 2.1

Recycled Resources

45.6 42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4 52.0 53.7 51.4 51.8 53.4 52.9 52.8 45.8

▲ 7.0

Mining Products

32.6 33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5 38.7 41.1 41.1 41.6 41.6 43.2 45.2 42.3

▲ 2.9

Machinery,Equipment

34.6 36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0 40.7 43.1 41.3 41.8 42.6 44.4 44.7 42.8

▲ 1.9

Other29.0 31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2 35.5 36.6 33.0 34.4 37.8 39.7 40.1 36.3

▲ 3.831.6 33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3 36.8 38.3 36.6 37.6 39.1 41.3 41.8 39.0

▲ 2.8

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2022

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theJan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

PreviousMonth

RetailFood,BEWerages

33.8 33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6 34.9 37.5 36.0 33.1 38.0 39.7 41.1 36.5

▲ 4.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

22.7 21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2 20.3 25.0 21.4 21.5 27.9 34.1 40.0 31.8

▲ 8.2

Drugs,Sundries

30.2 32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3 31.4 32.5 33.3 34.6 45.8 37.5 38.4 36.0

▲ 2.4

Furniture

34.4 36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6 39.8 36.9 34.6 32.2 35.6 34.5 42.9 35.6

▲ 7.3

Information Machinery and Equipment

28.3 36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8 35.8 37.7 33.8 33.8 34.6 35.9 35.5 32.3

▲ 3.2

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

35.7 37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6 40.7 40.5 36.8 37.2 35.9 37.8 36.5 35.0

▲ 1.5

Special Merchandise

32.6 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 32.6 31.7 32.8 33.5 36.0 33.3

▲ 2.7

Various Merchandise

38.7 36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 27.3 33.0 35.9 38.0 37.5 36.2

▲ 1.3

Other

30.3 33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.0 35.4 31.7 37.9 43.3 40.0

▲ 3.332.9 34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1 34.5 35.4 32.7 32.6 34.8 36.0 37.7 34.4

▲ 3.3

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service30.0 31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7 34.5 36.3 36.0 35.8 37.1 39.1 40.3 37.7

▲ 2.6

Restaurants

10.3 12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 20.5 19.7 14.8 15.2 27.8 31.4 34.7 24.2

▲ 10.5

Postal,Telecommunications

46.3 38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5 27.8 42.9 39.6 41.7 50.0 40.5 41.7 46.7

5.0Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

42.5 39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2 45.0 40.8 44.4 45.8 42.6 38.9 39.7 40.0

0.3

Leasing,Rentals

33.5 32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0 38.1 41.0 37.4 39.6 43.9 44.9 44.8 42.0

▲ 2.8

Lodging, Hotels

3.4

11.6 13.0 10.0 10.4 22.6 30.2 29.5 12.9

▲ 16.6

Recreation

24.0 25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5 29.2 34.8 29.2 29.0 34.0 36.7 38.4 33.3

▲ 5.1

Broadcasting

36.3 42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 38.9 39.2 49.1 48.1 46.9 45.8

▲ 1.1

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

36.3 37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8 42.7 41.9 41.6 44.0 44.3 45.3 45.7 42.3

▲ 3.4Advertising

20.2 24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4 27.5 27.5 26.8 29.5 32.4 36.8 37.7 32.7

▲ 5.0Information

41.3 43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9 46.8 48.2 46.7 48.5 50.5 51.2 52.5 50.1

▲ 2.4

Labor Dispatching

31.6 33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5 36.2 41.9 38.4 41.9 39.7 44.3 43.3 45.1

1.8

Special Services

38.8 42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.3 44.4 45.5 47.9 49.2 50.3 47.2

▲ 3.1

Medical,Welfare,Public Health32.7 34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2 41.2 42.1 41.1 41.4 42.8 45.7 43.2 42.4

▲ 0.8

Education

33.3 34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.3 37.5 39.0 43.5 39.1 43.2 39.7

▲ 3.5

Other30.9 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.8 37.4 34.7 39.2 40.6 41.7 42.4 39.3

▲ 3.1

33.9 36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5 39.7 41.5 39.1 41.1 43.6 45.3 46.1 42.8

▲ 3.3

29.5 30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3 35.5 34.7 35.3 35.6 38.0 39.6 40.5 36.3

▲ 4.2

Total

Other4.4

10.9

8.6

5.6

Ratio to theJan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

PreviousMonthHokkaido

32.4 33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5 37.1 38.3 38.0 38.5 40.8 40.8 41.1 38.6

▲ 2.5Tohoku

33.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7 39.3 40.0 38.4 39.0 40.2 42.1 41.7 38.1

▲ 3.6

kitakanto

34.9 37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5 41.2 42.7 41.5 40.4 42.8 44.4 45.0 42.3

▲ 2.7

minamikanto

34.0 35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4 39.8 41.0 40.0 41.4 42.4 43.9 44.8 42.6

▲ 2.2Hokuriku

32.7 34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1 39.2 40.6 39.1 40.4 41.2 42.6 43.6 40.9

▲ 2.7

Tokai34.1 36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9 39.4 42.0 40.0 39.1 40.1 42.4 44.4 41.1

▲ 3.3

Kinki

33.1 35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 38.1 40.3 38.7 39.3 41.3 42.7 43.3 40.8

▲ 2.5

Chugoku34.5 36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0 37.9 39.0 38.2 38.7 41.2 42.3 42.9 40.7

▲ 2.2

Shikoku33.8 35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8 37.6 38.2 36.9 38.3 39.0 41.8 43.2 39.3

▲ 3.9

Kyushu35.3 37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5 38.3 40.5 37.4 39.1 42.0 44.3 44.5 41.3

▲ 3.2

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2022

3Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 24,072; Validresponses: 11,981; Response rate: 49.8%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

578
836
929
3,470
633

Kyushu1,323
2,085736
411
980

Total

11,981

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

72

Finance

123

Construction

2,010

Real Estate415

Manufacturing（3,201）Wholesale（3,058）Retail（546）

Food,Beverages

80

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

44

Drugs,Sundries

31

Furniture

15

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

47

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

395

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

113

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

248

Special Merchandise

181

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

107

Various Merchandise

46

Publishing,Printing

182

OthersChemical

430

Transportation,Warehousing

549

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

576

Restaurants

64

General Machinery

523

Telecommunications

10

Electrical Machinery

341

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

113

Leasing,Rentals

127

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

83

Lodging, Hotels

44

Others90

Recreation

70

1015

Food,Beverages

412

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

196

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

356

Advertising

99

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

113

Information

511

Chemical

287

Labor Dispatching

68

40

Special Services

326
129

Recycled Resources

Service（1,956）

16

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

315

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment973

Education

Others366

Others3951
TotalLarge Firms

1,987

16.6%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,994

83.4%

micro Firms

3,624

30.2%

Total

11,981100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

222

216

Others

3.Size92

11,981

TDB Trends Research January 2022

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted January 18 – 31 2022

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 24,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate inthe survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbad

very badpoints

6543

2

10

number of responses
for each category

N6N5N4N3N2N1N0

Economic DI＝Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N6i≡0i × Ni

N×16×16× 100× 100©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 20225