Japan - September 2022

S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research

Japan Logistics©ESR LTD

Japan Logistics

Conﬁdence high but slowdown
in growth likely

Graph 1: Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy in Greater Tokyo, 2010 to 1H/2022• Rents in Greater Osaka have also
seen notable growth of 6.3% HoH
and 9.4% YoY, and now stand at
JPY4,420 per tsubo.

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

THOUSAND SQ M

16%

3,000

14%
12%

2,500

10%
2,000
8%
1,500
6%
1,000

4%

500

2%

0

0%

Graph 2: Greater Tokyo Rent vs Vacancy, Q1/2016 to Q2/2022

Average rent (LHS)

Average vacancy (RHS)

4,700

6%

4,600
5%
4,500
4%
4,400
4,300

3%

4,200
2%
4,100
1%
4,000
3,900

2016

Q1

Q2

Q3

2021

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2019

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2018

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2017

Q4

Q1

0%
Q2

• As Japan enters an endemic
state, the e-commerce sector isset to experience a temporary
slowdown, especially the tangible
goods market. Nevertheless,its overall long-term growthprospects are stable.

Vacancy rate (RHS)

VACANCY RATE

• 2022 is expected to see record
supply arrive on both theGreater Tokyo and Greater
Osaka markets, which will thenbe exceeded in 2023. Althoughlabour shortages and supply
chain disruption have pushed
back many completions, a waveof new supply will enter themarket soon, likely intensifying
competition for tenants.

5Y avg completions (2017-2021)

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy
Note: Annual periods from February to January. Vacancy rates are as of the year end for each annual period,
while the rate presented for 1H/2022 is as of July 2022.

JPY / TSUBO / MONTH• Investors should be aware of
the underlying risks facing
the logistics sector, namely
growing operational costs due
to labour shortages and highenergy prices, as well as someresurgence of brick-and-mortar
stores. Tightening margins amonglogistics ﬁrms are likely to slow
rental growth going forward.

Net absorption

VACANCY RATE

• Investments were slow in the ﬁrst
half of 2022, but are expected
to pick up as more deals areannounced. Demand remains
robust among both domestic andinternational investors, and thestrong performance of the sector
keeps attracting new investors.

Completions
3,500

Q3

• Rents in Greater Tokyo havegrown 1.3% half-year-on-half-year(HoH) and 4.7% YoY, and are now
at JPY4,680 per tsubo.

1 Greater Tokyo is deﬁ ned as the region which consists ofTokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama
2 Greater Osaka is deﬁ ned as the region which consists ofOsaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, and Nara

Q4

• Osaka performed slightly better,with the supply-demand balanceremaining quite tight. The vacancy
rate is very low and only saw alight increment, reaching 2.2%.

Q1• In Greater Tokyo, the large supply
somewhat outpaced strong
demand. Vacancy rates rose 1.8%
year-on-year (YoY) to 3.1%. Thatsaid, vacancy is still low in Tokyo.

Q2

Summary

there currently appears to be a longer time lagfor ﬂoors to be ﬁlled. Furthermore, a wave ofmajor new developments is scheduled to becompleted over the next few years, and thisis likely to disturb the current equilibriumof demand and supply. Heightened vacancy
levels are expected, and rental increments
are also likely to slow down, especially when
considering the heightened energy and labourcosts that would likely apply ﬁ nancial stresson logistics tenants and limit their capability
to aﬀord higher rents. Nonetheless, due to thesector’s strong fundamentals and room for
growth, the outlook still looks sound overall
for the logistics market.

INTRODUCTION
The logistics market has held steadfast, withthe popularity of the sector remaining highamongst investors. Average asking rents inboth Greater Tokyo1 and Greater Osaka 2 havecontinued to rise and vacancy has stayed low,
reﬂecting strong demand and conﬁdence inthe markets. 2022 will also see high volumes of
new supply arrive to the markets.
At the same time, there are potential
concerns amidst the current optimism in the
sector. Although vacancy levels are low, they
have been increasing over the past year and2022

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy
Note: Annual periods from February to January.

2Japan Logistics

MARKET TRENDS
The supply of logistics facilities has
accelerated in recent years, partly inresponse to the rise of e-commerce.
However, the Greater Tokyo market has
not been able to fully absorb the new large
supply as quickly and vacancy has risen
1.8 percentage points (ppts) to 3.1% YoY
in Q2/2022. Indeed, pre-leasing activity
has also reportedly been weaker than inprevious quarters, suggesting that further
increments in vacancy are probable. Thatsaid, vacancy remains low and demand fromlogistics operators is stable, which provides
some comfort to the market.
In Greater Tokyo, asking rents havecontinued to rise to a new high of JPY4,680
per tsubo, an increment of 4.7% YoY.
However, the steady rental growth may
begin to waver with the large supply forecast

The logistics sector continues to bea stand-out performer, with rents
growing and vacancy remaining low.
Record numbers of completions will
arrive to the market in 2022 and 2023
– such is the conﬁdence in the sector.
However, the windfall effect from thepandemic is approaching an end andmargins are set to tighten amonglogistics ﬁrms, threatening the paceof rental growth going forward.

Graph 3: Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy in Greater Osaka, 2010 to 1H/2022
Net absorption

5Y avg completions (2017-2021)

Vacancy rate (RHS)
16%

1,750

14%

1,500

12%

1,250

10%

1,000

8%

750

6%

500

4%

250

2%

0

0%

VACANCY RATE

THOUSAND SQ M

Completions
2,000

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy
Note: Annual periods from February to January. Vacancy rates are as of the year end for each annual period, while
the rate presented for 1H/2022 is as of July 2022.

Graph 4: Greater Osaka Rent vs Vacancy, Q1/2016 to Q2/2022

Average vacancy (RHS)

4,300

12%

4,100

10%

3,900

8%

3,700

6%

3,500

4%

3,300

2%

3,100

0%

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2

14%

VACANCY RATE

JPY / TSUBO / MONTH

Average rent (LHS)
4,500

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy
Note: Annual periods from February to January.

3for the market. Some inland logistics
facilities in Greater Tokyo are struggling
to ﬁ nd tenants and even a few facilities inthe bay area have vacancies. Going forward,
competition for tenants is likely to intensify,
and some facilities may have to resort tolowering rents in order to attract tenants.
In Greater Osaka, the market has seen
relatively limited new supply in recent times.
The market has performed well this quarter
relative to Greater Tokyo, and the balance
between supply and demand has remained
tight. Built-to-suit (BTS) type facilities
comprised a large proportion of new supply,
many of which were fully occupied uponcompletion, and the pre-leasing for multitenant facilities has been encouraging.
That said, vacancy rates in Greater Osakaalso experienced a slight increment, rising0.3ppts YoY to 2.2%. This can be partiallyattributed to tenants moving out of existing
properties in the Osaka bay area.
Average asking rents in Greater Osaka
have increased by 9.4% YoY to JPY4,420 per
tsubo, indicating that demand for logistics
space is still strong in the region. However,there are concerns that rental growth mightslow down as a wave of supply is expected
to enter the market with the extension of
the expressway. Indeed, the Shin-Meishin
Expressway will be expanded in FY2024 andFY2027 between Otsu and Takatsuki, which
will open up more areas for developing
new facilities. The large supply expected
in tandem with this expansion may lead toincreased competition for tenants, possibly
forcing some owners to consider adjusting
rents.

Japan Logistics

INCOMING SUPPLYIn Greater Tokyo, the pace of newcompletions shows little sign of slowing, withnearly 1.7 million sq m of new logistics space
introduced to the market in the ﬁrst half of2022. The largest completion of signiﬁcantscale3 was the 195,000 sq m ESR YokohamaSachiura Distribution Centre 1 in Yokohama
in January. The facility is overlooking
3 Deﬁ ned as exceeding 100,000 sq m in GFATokyo bay and is expected to beneﬁt fromthe extension of the Ken-O Expresswaythat is scheduled for completion in 2025.
Furthermore, ESR plans to complete anotherlarge facility, ESR Yokohama-Sachiura
Distribution Centre 2, on the adjacent site inJanuary 2023.
Other recent signiﬁcant developments
include the Mitsui Fudosan Logistics
Park (MFLP) Ichikawa Shiohama II in

Graph 5: Annual New Supply* in Japan by Region, 2018 to 2024F
Greater Tokyo

Greater Osaka

Other

8
7

GFA (Million SQ M)

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy* Projects in 2022 and beyond tend to be added later once details are ready to be announced. The data
provided by Ichigo only considers facilities with GFAs > 10,000 sq m and is as of 1 August 2022.

Map 1: Upcoming Completions in Greater Osaka with GFA greater than 50,000 sq m,
2022 to 2026*
Completion Year
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

GFA
50,000100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000

Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy* Projects where GFA and/or completion date are unavailable are omitted from the dataset.
New supply data as of 1 August 2022.

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

4

Chiba – completed in March 2022. The
facility has four ﬂoors and a GFA of over
180,000 sq m and was jointly developed by
Mitsui Fudosan and Tsukishima Kikai. In
addition, the 150,000 sq m multi-tenantfacility, Prologis Park Soka, was recently
completed in Saitama and has close accessto the expressway. Prologis has a numberof signiﬁcant scale multi-tenant and BTS
developments in the pipeline, with many
to be completed in Greater Tokyo in 2022
and 2023. Many of these facilities provide
amenities for workers including relaxation
lounges, shops, sky decks, and children’s day
care facilities, which are expected to help
attract more workers and address the labour
shortage plaguing the logistics industry.
Going forward, 2022 and 2023 are set to seea large increase in supply in Greater Tokyo,
with many developments of greater than
100,000 sq m in GFA set for completion.
Greater Osaka saw fewer new
developments enter the market in the ﬁ rst
half of 2022, and none had a GFA of above
100,000 sq m. The largest addition in 2022
was Orix’s Minoh Logistics Center in March,which has a GFA of just under 65,000 sq m.
The facility is located just 2km away fromthe Shin-Meishin Expressway, providing
convenient transport links between Osakaand Kyoto. Greater Osaka will see many
signiﬁcant scale developments over the next
few years, the largest of which being the GLPALFALINK Amagasaki facility, comprising
370,000 sq m over two buildings to becompleted by 2026. Furthermore, Mitsubishi
Estate will also be developing a 280,000 sq
m facility in Kyoto scheduled for completionby 2026. Despite these large developments inthe pipeline, the amount of supply forecast
for Greater Osaka over 2022 and 2023 looks
manageable overall.
While vacancy upticks have only beenmoderate in both Greater Tokyo andGreater Osaka, the impact that construction
slowdowns have had must also be
considered. Labour shortages and supply
chain disruptions have led to delays in theconstruction of many logistics facilities. This
has inadvertently resulted in a slower streamof new supply, and the market had moretime to absorb it. However, when the paceof construction picks up, the surge in new
supply could unsettle the market, especiallywhen looking at the large amount new supply
forecast for areas like Greater Tokyo.
INVESTMENT TRENDS
According to preliminary data aggregated by
Real Capital Analytics (RCA), investments
in Japan across all sectors have been slow,
with total investments in 1H/2022 around
22% lower than 1H/2021. The logistics sector
experienced a similar downturn, with

Japan Logistics

Graph 6: Share of Investment Volumes by Asset Class, 2007 to 1H/2022
Logistics

OfficeResidential

RetailHospitality

Other

Total

90%

9

80%

8

70%

7

60%

6

50%

5

40%

4

30%

3

20%

2

10%

1

0%

0

PROPORTION OF INVESTMENT (%)

10

JPY TRILLION

100%

Source RCA, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 7: Six-month-ahead Expectations for Rent and Capital Appreciation, 2008 to
2H/2022
Rents

Capital values

100
78.0
69.2

80

DIFFUSION INDEX

60
40
20
0
-20
-40

80.9

74.3 75.0
66.8
53.3

67.5 66.7 66.3
56.2
48.8
54.7
43.2
50.5 48.8
50.7 4138.0
29.9 38.9
45.1
27.3
25.3
25.9
34.8
22.6
29.7
37.0 28.4
25.6 28.6
13.8
19.2 28.7 23.1 21.0 18.7
13.0
8.4 7.7
19.6
14.1
5.0
-6.3 -13.1-14.8 -4.86.9
-3.7
-20.5
-15.9
-25.9
-37.7
66.3
53.3

-42.0 -63.9 -40.3

-60
-80

-86.2
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H

-100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source Ichigo Real Estate Service, Savills Research & Consultancy

Table 1: Selected Investments, announced March 2022 to August 2022

PROPERTY NAME

TRANSACTIONVALUE (JPY BIL)

APPRAISALDIRECT CAP
RATE

BUYER

SELLER

Site of Sanyo Electric’s
Suminodo Factory andKyocera’s Osaka Daito
Office60.0(est.)-

Sumitomo Life Insurance,
SMFL Mirai Partners,
Japan Post Real Estate

Sanyo
Electric,
KyoceraLogiport Kawasaki Bay
and Logicross Atsugi II(2 facilities)

45.8

4.3% to 4.4%

Mitsubishi Estate
Logistics REIT

Undisclosed

Daiwa House REIT
Portfolio (4 facilities)

38.0

4.4% to 5.1%

Daiwa House REIT
Investment Corporation

Multiple

Japan Oi soko

16.1

-

Japan Logistics FundREIT Portfolio(2 facilities)

12.7

3.8% to 3.9%

Japan Logistics Fund
REIT

Multiple

T-Logi Fukuoka Island
City Development Site

11.8

-

Tokyo Tatemono, Tokyu
Land, Nishinippon
Shimbun, Marubeni

FukuokaCity

Tsukuba City Land

11.0

-

Goodman Japan

TsukubaCity

Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Fuyo General
Prologis
Lease

Source Company Disclosures, Nikkei RE, Savills Research & Consultancy

5

investments in 1H/2022 falling 55% comparedto the same period in the previous year.
Furthermore, this data is still preliminary
and investment volumes will likely increase
as more transactions are announced
throughout the year.
In the logistics sector, 2022 has seen a
few notable transactions, primarily between
active domestic players. The largest bigticket announcement was that of Sumitomo
Life Insurance, SMFL Mirai Partners, Japan
Post Real Estate jointly acquiring 105,000
sq m of land in Osaka, expected to be used
for the construction of a logistics facility,
for an estimated JPY60 billion. Othersigniﬁcant transactions include Mitsubishi
Estate Logistics REIT acquiring a coownership interest in two logistics facilities
in Kanagawa for JPY45.8 billion, and Dai-ichi
Life Holdings and Prologis acquiring theJapan Oi Soko facility in Tokyo for JPY16.1
billion. Furthermore, Kenedix recently
carried out a large real estate Security TokenOﬀering (STO), which was backed by alogistics facility with an asset size of JPY14.6
billion. A new player like this may have adiﬀerent investment angle and provide
further liquidity in the market.
International investors have been
relatively quiet in the Japanese industrial
market, with only a few small-scaletransactions taking place so far in 2022 due
to limited opportunities. For instance, US
investor Invesco acquired the 26,000 sq m
GLP Fukusaki facility in the Greater Osaka
region in March. In addition, Hong Kongbased Gaw Capital Partners announced its
intention to further expand its presence inthe data centre market in Japan throughthe acquisition of the Fuchu Building inTokyo in April. Gaw will incorporate theFuchu Building into its plans to redevelop
the adjacent Meito Sangyo Building, which
it acquired in 2021, and construct a larger
carrier-neutral Tier III data centre. Despite
limited opportunities and the slow start tothe year, more international capital enters theJapan logistics sector.
Nonetheless, market participants shouldclosely monitor the market sentiment. Thereis robust appetite for logistics facilities
present in the market, which is likely to
see new benchmark cap rates. However,
the global inﬂationary environment has
put additional cost-related pressures on
logistics tenants that already operate on thin
margins, probably making it more diﬃcult
for landlords to raise rents. The 30th biannual market sentiment survey conductedby Ichigo Real Estate Service appears toecho this viewpoint, with more than half of
respondents anticipating capital appreciation,
but with only around 20% expecting rents toincrease. Furthermore, investors will need

Japan Logistics

Graph 8: Business-to-Consumer (B2C) E-commerce (EC) Market Size, 2013 to 2021
B2C EC tangible goods

B2C EC services

B2C EC digital goods

EC share of all B2C tangible goods sales
10%

25,000

MARKET SIZE (JPY BILLION)

8%

20,0007%
6%

15,000

5%
4%

10,000

3%
2%

5,000

1%
0

SHARE OF EC TANGIBLE GOODS SALES

9%

0%
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source METI, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 9: Percentage of Households that Shop Online by Age, 2021
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

AGE GROUP
Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 10: Percentage of Households that Shop Online by Household Income, 2021
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME (JPY)
Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications, Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

6

to take note of the risks of potential interest
rate increments that may materialise by next
Spring and the impacts that they will haveon yields. Indeed, the previously popularstable long-term lease model may becomeless desirable in the rising interest rateenvironment, and the industry could see ashift toward leases that are of shorter termin hopes to mitigate the risk of diminishingyield spreads.
PROSPECTS OF E-COMMERCE
The e-commerce market in Japan saw
impressive growth during the pandemic asmany customers switched to shopping online.
This rapid change consequentially increased
the demand for logistics facilities, probably
contributing to the sharp pricing andcompressed cap rates currently seen in the
sector. However, as society progresses towardnormalcy, the momentum stemming from therise in e-commerce is expected to slow down,
at least temporarily, especially as inherent
risks in the sector become clearer.
Looking at Graph 8, the number of B2C
tangible goods bought online grew byaround 22% YoY in 2020 and 9% YoY in
2021. However, this was accompanied with adecline in the volume of B2C services bought
online. Indeed, the multiple restrictions
on going out and travel meant that many
services usually bought online, including
travel tours, event tickets, and other inperson services, experienced a signiﬁcant
downturn. The eﬀective unavailability ofservices, in addition to the need for new
goods and accessories to accommodate
the increase in remote work, likely drove
demand towards tangible goods instead. In
fact, in 2020, total e-commerce sales wereactually lower than that of 2019. As Japan
progresses further towards an endemic
state, the demand for services will likely
increase, which may lead to some decline in
the demand for tangible goods, and may be
expedited further by some return to brickand-mortar retail stores. Consequently,
the demand for logistics facilities for
e-commerce is likely to slow down, although
the base growth trend itself does not change.
E-commerce logistics facilities may alsoﬁ nd it more diﬃcult to continue expanding
due to the increasing costs of labour anddevelopment. Many e-commerce retailers
have tried to keep labour costs low byutilising freelance labourers with a ﬁ xed
wage, but this practice is likely to become
increasingly diﬃcult as stronger regulations
eye the industry with greater scrutiny andsome workers begin to unionise. In fact,some delivery drivers for Amazon Japan
have formed a union that will likely compel
wage increments unless it loses momentum.
The long working hours that the industry
is known for and the external pressure forJapan Logistics

ESG related initiatives should also result in somework reforms on top of wage increments. Risingindustrial land prices and construction costs on
top of these labour cost increments are likely tomake it more economically diﬃcult to develop newlogistics facilities.
Additional signs that point to a possible
bottleneck in e-commerce growth is that a majority
of demand for e-commerce appears to be heavily
skewed toward households with higher income,and those located in larger cities. Those withlower income may have less access to payment
methods required for online transactions, and thestagnant wage growth in Japan means that thisdynamic may not see signiﬁcant change soon.
Going forward, the growth of e-commerce islikely to slow down temporarily as society moves
towards normalcy and brick-and-mortar retailmakes a comeback, especially when considering
the multiple new retail developments in thepipeline around the country that should provide
a boost to physical stores in their locations.
Furthermore, rising labour costs will slow the
expansion of new logistics facilities. Nonetheless,a growing number of the elderly in Japan havestarted shopping online, implying that there
should be room for further growth with this new
sizable customer base. Hence, long-term growth in
the industry is expected, although it will likely facesome challenges at least temporarily.

OUTLOOK
Conﬁdence remains high in the logistics sector.
Despite a mild increment, vacancy rates remain
low in both Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka.
While investments have been somewhat limited
so far due to the scarce number of opportunities
in 2022, the market is expected to see moretransactions announced in the coming months.
The logistics market has beneﬁtted amidst thewidespread economic downturn during the
pandemic, with demand for e-commerce services
experiencing particularly impressive growth. The
sector has also experienced another increase inrents, reﬂecting steady demand from logistics
operators.
However, investors should be aware of theimmediate risks facing the sector. Many logistics
ﬁrms operate on tight margins, and increasing
costs of labour and energy will likely limit theircapacity to carry out further rental increases
going forward. According to Teikoku Databank,the delivery and warehousing industry has seen
notable increments in its shortage of full-time
employees, from 36.0% in July 2020 to 59.4%
in July 2022, highlighting the troubles that theindustry is undergoing. Also, a major player in thelogistics industry, Nippon Logistech, has ﬁled for
restructuring on the back of a record amount ofoutstanding debt in the industry. Furthermore,
2022 and 2023 will see record completions, raisingconcerns of heightened competition for tenants.
Investors should therefore be aware of a slowdown
in rental growth, with older and poorly locatedfacilities likely having to negotiate with potential
tenants.
At the same time, delays in developing new
facilities due to supply chain disruption haveoﬀered a lifeline in suppressing vacancies.
However, this is only temporary, and demand
may not be able to keep up with the new facilities
that will soon arrive to the market. Consequently,
negotiating power may shift further in favour oftenants, making a slowdown in rental growth evenmore likely.
Overall, the logistics sector appears to be
performing well and its sound fundamentals
will continue to attract investment and new
developments. That said, the current inﬂationary
environment and the risks of potential interest
rate increments must be understood. Hence,
diligent investors would anticipate that corrections
could cause signiﬁcant consequences for some
non-ideal facilities and draw their attention
primarily to well-located and modern facilities, aswell as assuming more realistic rents during theunderwriting process.

For more information about this report, please contact us

Savills Japan

Savills Research

Christian Mancini
CEO, Asia Paciﬁc(Ex. Greater China)+81 3 6777 5150
cmancini@savills.co.jp

Tetsuya Kaneko
Managing Director, Head of
Research & Consultancy, Japan+81 3 6777 5192
tkaneko@savills.co.jp

Simon Smith
Regional Head of Research& Consultancy, Asia Paciﬁc+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.com.hk

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