Executive summary
In July 2023, the IMO adopted the “2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from
Ships” (2023 IMO GHG Strategy). This updated strategy builds upon the initial strategy
adopted back in 2018, now incorporating a net-zero GHG emission goal to be achieved by oraround 2050. The 2023 IMO GHG Strategy sets the following numerical targets for reducing
GHG emissions from international shipping, as well as indicative checkpoints for achieving
these reductions. Notably, these targets and indicative checkpoints must consider the entire
life cycle GHG emissions associated with the fuels used by ships.
◆Targets to be achieved by the measures (rules) developed by the IMO✓

Net-zero GHG emissions by or around 2050✓

5% to 10% uptake of zero GHG emission fuels, etc. by 2030✓

40% reduction in CO2 emissions (per transport work) by 2030 (compared to 2008)◆Indicative checkpoints to achieve net-zero GHG emissions target✓

20% to 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (compared to 2008)✓

70% to 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2040 (compared to 2008)

What is the significance of the numerical targets outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy?
Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (ClassNK) has conducted estimations 1 to promote understanding of the2023 IMO GHG Strategy. These estimations pertain to the minimum 20% and 70% reductionsin GHG emissions compared to 2008, which are set as indicative checkpoints for 2030 and
2040, respectively, in international shipping. The estimations involve determining theallowable “GHG emissions" and the required “introduction amount of zero-emission fuels andships" for international shipping to achieve these indicative checkpoints. The summarized
results are as follows.
◆Allowable GHG emissions for international shipping in 2030/2040
Table 1 outlines the allowable GHG emissions for international shipping to achieve theindicative checkpoints for 2030/2040.
The allowable GHG emissions for international shipping in 2030/2040 will be 585 million
tons and 219 million tons, respectively. This represents a reduction of about 27% and 73%
compared to the latest 2021 level of 798 million tons. Note that these GHG emissions are
estimated based on the life cycle GHG emissions of the fuels used by ships.

1

Estimations were made for ships of 5,000 gross tonnage and above engaged in international voyages(ships subject to IMO DCS).

1

Table 1 - Annual life cycle GHG emissions allowed for international shipping to achieve
the indicative checkpoints

GHG emissions

2008

2021

(Base year)(Latest)2030
indicative
checkpoint(Unit: million tons CO2eq)2040
indicative
checkpoint(20% reduction
from 2008)

Life cycle GHG emissions (WtW2)
3(Breakdown) GHG emissions (WtT )GHG emissions (TtW4)(70% reduction
from 2008)

731

798

585

219

110
621

122
676

88
497

33
186

(Source: ClassNK estimations)◆Introduction amount of zero-emission fuels and zero-emission ships required to achieve
the indicative checkpoints
Table 2 outlines the introduction amount of zero-emission fuels and zero-emission ships
required to achieve the indicative checkpoints for 2030/2040.
To achieve the indicative checkpoints for 2030/2040, approximately 25%/72% of thefuels 5 used in international shipping, respectively, must be zero-emission fuels. This
necessitates the procurement of methanol and ammonia, etc., particularly those derived
from green hydrogen, at a scale matching the current production levels across all sectors
by 2030 and surpassing them by 2040.
To secure zero-emission ships capable of using this volume of zero-emission fuels, it will benecessary to introduce 85 million GT6 of zero-emission ships annually over the four-year
period from 2027 to 2030 through a combination of newbuildings and retrofits of existingships. Subsequently, to secure the zero-emission ships required to achieve the indicative
checkpoint for 2040, an annual introduction of 77 million GT of zero-emission ships will beessential during the ten-year period from 2031 to 2040, involving both newbuildings andretrofits of existing ships.

2

3
4
5
6

GHG emissions throughout the life cycle of fuel production, transportation, storage, and onboard use,from “Well” to “Wake”.
GHG emissions from fuel production, transportation, and storage, from “Well” to “Tank”.
GHG emissions from onboard use of fuel, from “Tank” to “Wake”.
Energy consumption basis.
The world's current annual newbuilding deliveries are about 60 million GT per year.

2

Table 2 – Introduction amount of zero-emission fuels and zero-emission ships required toachieve the indicative checkpoints
2030
indicative checkpoint
achieved(25% zero-emission fuel)2040
indicative checkpoint
achieved(72% zero-emission fuel)For Methanol

106 mil. tons

311 mil. tons（of which zero-emission
fuels account for less than
1% of the total）

For Ammonia

114 mil. tons

333 mil. tons（of which zero-emission
fuels account for less than
1% of the total）- 2026(Orderbook)

Newbuildings

Current
production scale
for all sectors
106 mil. tons/year

Introduction
amount ofzero-emission
fuels

Introduction
amount ofzero-emission
ships

183 mil. tons/year

2027 - 2030

12 mil. GT

Newbuildings & Retrofits

85 mil. GT/year

2031 - 2040-←
Newbuildings & Retrofits

77 mil. GT/year-

1,122 mil. GT-

580 mil. tons CO2eq

214 mil. tons CO2eq(20.7% reduction from 2008)(70.7% reduction from 2008)-

Total amountLife cycle GHG emissions (WtW)←

352 mil. GT(Source: ClassNK estimations)

Given that 25% introduction of zero-emission fuels is required to achieve the indicative
checkpoint for 2030, achieving only a 5% to 10% introduction of zero-emission fuels, as
outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, would make it challenging to achieve the indicative
checkpoint for 2030.
To achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030, it's imperative to promptly introduce zeroemission ships. Nonetheless, even if the indicative checkpoint for 2030 is not achieved, anannual introduction of 80 million GT of zero-emission ships over the 14-year period from2027 to 2040 will still be necessary to achieve the indicative checkpoint.
Achieving the numerical targets of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy
In order to achieve the numerical targets outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, asubstantial amount of zero-emission fuels will need to be secured in international shipping.
At the same time, given the current scale of zero-emission fuel production, the fuelproduction and distribution sector will need to accelerate investments, including in carbonfree hydrogen and electricity, more rapidly than with previous efforts in decarbonization. The
early introduction of a regulatory framework, including effective carbon pricing, is essential
to facilitate these investment decisions.
Concerning the newbuildings and retrofits of zero-emission ships, it is unlikely that there will
be a significant shortage of newbuildings and retrofits capacity to achieve the numericaltargets as long as a certain amount of ships are built and retrofitted each year. In the future,3

it will be essential to secure newbuildings and retrofits capacity in line with the pace ofdevelopment of the zero-emission fuel production and distribution infrastructure.
The time remaining until 2030, which is the immediate target and checkpoint, is extremely
limited. Achieving the zero-emission goal as outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy
necessitates a collective and urgent effort from all stakeholders, including internationalorganizations, national governments, the maritime industry, the energy sector, shippers, andthe financial sector.

4

Table of contents
Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 6
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 7
Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 10(A) GHG emissions ...................................................................................................................... 11(B) Energy consumption of ships in 2021 ............................................................................. 13(C) Marine transport volume .................................................................................................... 14(D) Energy efficiency of ships ................................................................................................. 15(E) Fuel’s GHG intensity ........................................................................................................... 16
Scenario for achieving the fuel introduction target for 2030 ............................................ 18
Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 ............................................... 21
Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (Reference: For biodiesel) 23
Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040 ............................................... 24
Discussion: achieving the numerical targets of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy ................. 26
Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 28
References ................................................................................................................................. 36

5

Abbreviations
AER

Annual Efficiency Ratio

CH4

MethaneCII

Carbon Intensity Indicator

CO2

Carbon Dioxide

CO2eq

Carbon Dioxide equivalents

DCS

Data Collection System

EEDI

Energy Efficiency Design Index

EEXI

Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index

EJ

Exajoule

EU

European Union

GHG

Greenhouse gas

GT

Gross Tonnage

GWP

Global Warming Potential

HFO

Heavy Fuel Oil

IMOInternational Maritime Organization

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LFO

Light Fuel Oil

LNG

Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

MDO

Marine Diesel Oil

MGO

Marine Gas Oil

MJ

Megajoule

N2O

Nitrous Oxide

TtW

Tank-to-Wake

WtT

Well-to-Tank

WtW

Well-to-Wake6

Introduction
2023 IMO GHG Strategy
In July 2023, the IMO adopted the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, which revises the initial strategy
adopted in 2018 and includes a target of net-zero GHG emissions by or around 2050. The
2023 IMO GHG Strategy includes a "Vision," "Levels of ambition," and "Indicative
checkpoints" for reducing GHG emissions from international shipping, as well as GHG
reduction measures.
◆VisionThe IMO remains committed to reducing GHG emissions from international shipping and, asa matter of urgency, aims to phase them out as soon as possible, while promoting, in thecontext of this Strategy, a just and equitable transition.
◆Levels of ambition
1.

carbon intensity of the ship to decline through further improvement of the energy
efficiency for new ships-

to review with the aim of strengthening the energy efficiency design requirements
for ships

2.

carbon intensity of international shipping to decline-

to reduce CO2 emissions per transport work, as an average across international
shipping, by at least 40% by 2030, compared to 20083.

uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, fuels and/or energy sources toincrease-uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, fuels and/or energy
sources to represent at least 5%, striving for 10%, of the energy used byinternational shipping by 2030

4.

GHG emissions from international shipping to reach net zero-

to peak GHG emissions from international shipping as soon as possible and to reachnet-zero GHG emissions by or around, i.e., close to, 2050, taking into accountdifferent national circumstances, whilst pursuing efforts towards phasing them out
as called for in the Vision consistent with the long-term temperature goal set out in
Article 2 of the Paris Agreement

7

Indicative checkpoints
1.

to reduce the total annual GHG emissions from international shipping by at least 20%,
striving for 30%, by 2030, compared to 20082.

to reduce the total annual GHG emissions from international shipping by at least 70%,
striving for 80%, by 2040, compared to 2008
Table 3 - 2023 IMO GHG Strategy(Source: Prepared by ClassNK)

Mid-term GHG reduction measures
It was agreed at the IMO that the basket of candidate mid-term measures, which consist ofboth technical and economic elements, will be further developed under a proposed timeline.
Specifically, regarding the candidate measures such as year-by-year enhancements ofreduction of annual GHG emission intensity (GFS, GHG Fuel Standard), payments on the basisof GHG emission amount (Levy) and a combination of implementing both levy for using fossil
fuels and rebate for using zero-emission fuels (Feebate), it was agreed to further conduct acomprehensive impact assessment on the combination of technical and economic elementsof the respective basket of measures, followed by the finalization of measures based on theassessment results. Furthermore, the timeline specifying adoption of specific mid-term
measures by 2025 followed by entry into force by 2027 has been incorporated into the 2023
IMO GHG Strategy.

8What is the significance of the numerical targets outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy?
While the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy has been adopted, there is currently no consensus within
the maritime industry regarding what it signifies for international shipping, i.e., “What are theallowable GHG emissions for international shipping to achieve the numerical targets
outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, and to what extent would the introduction of zeroemission fuels and zero-emission ships in international shipping be sufficient to achieve
the numerical targets?"
ClassNK has therefore estimated the amount of allowable GHG emissions, zero-emission fuelsand zero-emission ships that would be required to achieve a minimum 20% reduction in GHG
emissions in 2030 and a minimum 70% reduction in GHG emissions in 2040 compared to2008, which are considered to be the indicative checkpoints for achieving net-zero GHG
emissions in 2050.
The purpose of this document is to visualize the actions required by the 2023 IMO GHG
Strategy in numerical form and to promote understanding of the strategy, thereby stimulating
broad discussion among industry stakeholders and contributing to accelerating efforts toachieve zero emissions from international shipping. We hope that this document will help all
stakeholders involved in shipping to consider future initiatives toward the realization of zero
emissions from international shipping.

9

Methodology
This document visualizes the “GHG emissions” allowed for international shipping and the“introduction amount of zero-emission fuels and zero-emission ships” required to achieve theindicative checkpoints for 2030/2040 using the following methods.
◆Method for estimating GHG emissions
Estimated GHG emissions in 2008 based on the latest fuel consumption of ships in 2021,
considering the increase in marine transport volume and improvement in energy efficiencyof ships, and calculated the (A) GHG emissions required to achieve the indicative
checkpoints for 2030/2040.
◆Method for estimating the introduction amount of zero-emission fuels/ships
1.

Estimated the energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040 based on the latest (B)Energy consumption of ships in 2021 and taking into account the projected increase in(C) Marine transport volume and improvement in (D) Energy efficiency of ships.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume ×Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships= Energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040
2.

Compared the GHG emissions estimated based on the fuel mix, including conventional
fuels and zero-emission fuels, to meet the energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040,
and the (E) Fuel’s GHG intensity, with the allowable GHG emissions to achieve theindicative checkpoints.

Energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040 × Σ(each fuel’s “share x GHG intensity”)≤ Allowable GHG emissions to achieve the indicative checkpoints for 2030/2040
3.

Estimated the required introduction amount of zero-emission fuels and zero-emission
ships for the scenarios that match item 2.

The scope of ships and GHG emissions in the estimation was defined as follows.
◆Scope of ships
Ships of 5,000 GT and above engaged in international voyages (ships subject to IMO DCS7).
◆Scope of GHG emissions
GHG emissions across the entire life cycle, from manufacturing, transportation, and storage
to onboard use, for the fuels used by ships (WtW emissions).

7

IMO’s fuel consumption data collection system (commenced in 2019).

10

(A) GHG emissions
GHG emissions allowed for international shipping to achieve the indicative checkpoints for2030/2040
In the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, indicative checkpoints for 2030/2040 are set with 2008 as
the base year. However, there are currently no agreed figures within the IMO for the annual
life cycle GHG emissions at the 2008 baseline or the annual life cycle GHG emissions required
to achieve the indicative checkpoints (these are expected to be discussed within the IMO in
the future). Therefore, in order to visualize the actions called for by the 2023 IMO GHG
Strategy, we estimated the annual life cycle GHG emissions in 2008, the latest ones in 2021,
and the ones allowed for international shipping in 2030/2040. The results are as shown in
Table 4.
Table 4 - Annual life cycle GHG emissions allowed for international shipping to achieve
the indicative checkpoints

GHG emissions

2008

2021

(Base year)(Latest)2030
indicative
checkpoint(Unit: million tons CO2eq)2040
indicative
checkpoint(20% reduction
from 2008)

Life cycle GHG emissions (WtW)(Breakdown) GHG emissions (WtT)
GHG emissions (TtW)(70% reduction
from 2008)

731

798

585

219

110
621

122
676

88
497

33
186

(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) GHG emissions include CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, and N2O emissions.
 The emission factors and methane slip for LNG fuel are based on the emission factors and methane slip
rate (1.7%) specified in the EU’s FuelEU Maritime Regulations8.
 The GWP for CO2/CH4/N2O is based on the GWP100 values from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)(CO2: 1, CH4: 28, N2O: 265).

◆GHG emissions in 2008
Energy consumption of ships in 2008 was estimated by dividing the energy consumption ofships in 2021 by the “rate of increase in marine transport volume” from 2008 to 2021(+40%: estimated value) and the “rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships” (-22%:
estimated value). Based on the estimated energy consumption of ships in 2008, GHG
emissions in 2008 were calculated considering the fuel mix in 2008 9 , resulting in 731
million tons CO2eq.

8

9

REGULATION (EU) 2023/1805 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 13 September
2023 on the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in maritime transport, and amending Directive
2009/16/EC
Refer to Third IMO GHG Study 2014, Table 3.

11

◆GHG emissions in 2021
GHG emissions in 2021 were calculated based on the latest 2021 fuel consumption of ships
published by the IMO (aggregated IMO DCS data: Table 5)10, resulting in 798 million tons
CO2eq.
Based on the GHG emissions of 731 million tons in 2008, the GHG emissions allowed forinternational shipping in 2030/2040 would be 585 million tons and 219 million tons,
respectively. This implies that reductions of approximately 27% and 73% would be requiredcompared to the current level of 798 million tons in 2021.

Table 5 – Fuel consumption of ships in 2021 (aggregated IMO DCS data)(Unit: tons)
Fuel type

Fuel consumption

Diesel Gas/Oil (MDO/MGO)

25,732,999

Ethanol

4,849

Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)

109,169,447

Light Fuel Oil (LFO)

64,479,128

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

12,623,121

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Butane

2,028

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Propane

34,973

Methanol

13,031

Other

170,501(Source: Prepared by ClassNK based on MEPC 79/6/1)

10

MEPC 79/6/1

12

(B) Energy consumption of ships in 2021
The energy consumption of ships in 2021, as shown in Table 6, was calculated based on thelatest 2021 fuel consumption of ships published by the IMO (aggregated IMO DCS data)11 ,resulting in a total of 8.79 EJ.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume
8.79 EJ× Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships= Energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040
Table 6 – Fuel and energy consumption of ships in 2021
Fuel type

Fuel consumption

Energy consumption

[ton]

[EJ]

Diesel Gas/Oil (MDO/MGO)

25,732,999

1.10

4,849

-

Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)

109,169,447

4.42Light Fuel Oil (LFO)

64,479,128

2.64

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

12,623,121

0.62

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Butane

2,028

0.0001

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Propane

34,973

0.002

Methanol

13,0310.0003

170,501-

Ethanol

Other

Total 8.79
(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) Due to rounding, the breakdown and the total do not match.

11

The lower calorific values are based on the lower calorific values specified in the EU’s FuelEU Maritime
Regulations.

13

(C) Marine transport volume
Marine transport volume has a significant impact on achieving the indicative checkpoints. As
global trade expands, an increase in marine transport volume (ton-miles) leads to higher GHG
emissions if conventional fuels are continually used and increases the difficulty of achieving
the indicative checkpoints.
Marine transport volume is derived from the marine transport volume scenarios presented in
the Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020. The base case assumes a 25% increase from 2021 to 2030
and a 39% increase from 2021 to 204012.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume+25%/+39%
× Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships= Energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040
Table 7 - Projected marine transport volume(Unit: billion ton-miles)
Scenario
Base case13(compared to 2021)

High case14(compared to 2021)

Low case15(compared to 2021)

2008

2018

2021

2030

2040

2050

42,00059,00059,00074,000(+25%)

82,000(+39%)

89,500(+52%)

42,00059,00059,00088,000(+49%)

109,000(+85%)

126,000(+114%)

42,00059,00059,00067,000(+14%)

76,000(+29%)

82,000(+39%)(Source: ClassNK estimations)

Table 8 - 12 main scenarios for marine transport volume (ton-miles)(Source: Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020, Table 36)

12
13
14
15

Estimated results for scenarios other than the base case are provided in the Appendix.
Based on the 12 scenarios listed in Table 8, an average increase in marine transport volume is assumed.
The case with the largest increase in marine transport volume among the 12 scenarios listed in Table 8.
The case with the smallest increase in marine transport volume among the 12 scenarios listed in Table 8.

14

(D) Energy efficiency of ships
The energy efficiency of ships has a significant impact on achieving the indicative
checkpoints. Improved energy efficiency in each ship leads to reduced fuel consumption,
resulting in decreased GHG emissions and contributing to the achievement of the indicative
checkpoints.

In the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, the following carbon intensity improvement target is outlined.
-

to reduce CO2 emissions per transport work, as an average across international shipping,by at least 40% by 2030, compared to 2008

Energy efficiency of ships was assumed to improve by 23%16 from 2021 to 2030 and by 30%17from 2021 to 2040, assuming the achievement of the carbon intensity improvement targets.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume
× Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships-23%/-30%= Energy consumption of ships in 2030/2040
Table 9 – Carbon intensity through 2018

(Source: Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020, Table 2)Starting from 2023, the IMO has initiated the CII regulations. With the implementation ofthese regulations, it is anticipated that efforts to improve actual energy efficiency will bemade by each ship with the goal of maintaining or improving their CII rating. This system, in
conjunction with the design-based energy efficiency regulations such as the EEDI and EEXI
regulations, contributes to further improving the energy efficiency of ships.

16
17

Equivalent to a 40% improvement compared to 2008 (AER basis).
Equivalent to a 45% improvement compared to 2008 (AER basis).

15(E) Fuel’s GHG intensity
What is fuel’s GHG intensity?
Fuel’s GHG intensity refers to the GHG emissions per unit of energy for a fuel. Whenevaluating GHG intensity over the entire life cycle (WtW), the sum of the GHG intensity at
WtT and at TtW is the GHG intensity at WtW.
The GHG intensities of typical fuels are as shown in Figure 1, and GHG intensities can becalculated based on emission factors specified for each fuel type and production pathway.

(Source: Prepared by ClassNK based on the emissions factors listed in the FuelEU Maritime Regulations, etc.)

Figure 1 - GHG intensity by fuel type
When evaluating GHG intensity over the entire life cycle (WtW), it should be noted that fuels
like hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol derived from natural gas may have GHG intensity
higher than conventional fuels.

Figure 2 – Concept of a fuel’s life cycle GHG emissions

16

Table 10 - Lower calorific value, emission factor, and slip rate by fuel type18
Fuel type

LCV

CO2eq WtT

CO2eq WtT

CO2eq TtW

CO2eq TtW

Slip rate[MJ/g][gCO2eq/MJ][gCO2eq/gFuel][gCO2eq/MJ][gCO2eq/gFuel]

[%]

HFO

0.0405

13.5

0.547

78.1

3.163

0.0

LFO

0.041

13.2

0.541

78.1

3.200

0.0

MDO/MGO

0.0427

14.4

0.615

76.2

3.255

0.0

LNG
(Otto medium speed)

0.0491

18.5

0.908

56.6

2.779

3.1

LNG
(Otto slow speed)

0.0491

18.5

0.908

56.6

2.779

1.7

LNG
(Diesel slow speed)

0.0491

18.5

0.908

56.6

2.779

0.2

LPG
(Butane)

0.046

7.8

0.359

66.9

3.079

0.0

LPG
(Propane)

0.046

7.8

0.359

66.3

3.049

0.0

Hydrogen(Natural gas)

0.12

132.0

15.840

0.0

0.000

0.0

Ammonia(Natural gas)0.0186

121.0

2.251

2.6

0.049

0.0

Methanol(Natural gas)0.0199

31.3

0.623

71.6

1.424

0.0

e-Ammonia

0.0186

0.0

0.000

2.6

0.049

0.0

(Source: Prepared by ClassNK based on FuelEU Maritime Regulations)

18

REGULATION (EU) 2023/1805 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 13 September
2023 on the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in maritime transport, and amending Directive
2009/16/EC

17

Scenario for achieving the fuel introduction target
for 2030
Based on the energy consumption of ships in 2021 and taking into account the increase inmarine transport volume and the improvement in energy efficiency of ships, the estimatedenergy consumption of ships in 2030 was 8.47EJ.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume
8.79 EJ+25%

× Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships-23%= Energy consumption of ships in 2030
8.47 EJ
The allowable GHG emissions required to achieve the indicative checkpoints can becalculated based on the energy consumption of ships and by considering the fuel mix (eachfuel’s share), including conventional fuels and zero-emission fuels.

Energy consumption of ships in 2030 × Σ(each fuel’s “share × GHG intensity”)
8.47 EJ≤ Annual GHG emissions to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030
585 million tons CO2eq
Note that the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy sets the following targets for the introduction of zeroemission fuels, etc.
-

uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, fuels and/or energy sources torepresent at least 5%, striving for 10%, of the energy used by international shipping by
2030

Therefore, we first examined a scenario for achieving the zero-emission fuel introduction
target for 2030 (minimum 5% introduction)19.

19

While the targets for introduction vary from zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, fuels, and/or
energy sources, this document focuses solely on the calculation of the introduction for zero-emission
fuels.

18

What is required to achieve the zero-emission fuel introduction target for 2030?
The fuel mix as of 2030 in this scenario is as shown in Table 11.
Table 11 - Fuel mix (case of achieving the zero-emission fuel introduction target for
2030)
Fuel oil

Ship energy consumption

LNG

7.20 EJ(85%)

0.85 EJ(10%)

Zero-emission
fuel0.42 EJ(5%)

Total amount
8.47 EJ(100%)(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) The energy consumption-based share of LNG fuel is assumed to increase to 10% in 2030, taking into
account the actual share in 2021 (7%) and the orderbook for LNG-fueled ships as of September 2023.

The amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve a 5% share on an energy consumption
basis is as shown in Table 12. To achieve the zero-emission fuel introduction target for 2030,
an annual volume of 21 million tons of methanol or 23 million tons of ammonia will benecessary as of 2030. These methanol and ammonia sources should be derived from greenhydrogen, etc., that result in zero-emission fuels throughout their life cycle. It's worth notingthat the most of currently produced methanol (primarily used for chemicals) and ammonia(mainly for fertilizers) are derived from natural gas and may result in higher GHG emissions
throughout their life cycle compared to conventional fuels, making them unsuitable as zeroemission fuels for international shipping.
Table 12 – Introduction amount of zero-emission fuels (case of achieving the zeroemission fuel introduction target for 2030)
Fuel type2030
introduction amountof zero-emission fuels(5% zero-emission fuel)Current production scale
for all sectors
106 mil. tons/year

For Methanol

21 mil. tons(of which zero-emission fuels accountfor less than 1% of the total)

For Ammonia

23 mil. tons(of which zero-emission fuels accountfor less than 1% of the total)

183 mil. tons/year(Source: ClassNK estimations)

If the amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve the zero-emission fuel introduction
target for 2030 is secured, the corresponding amount of zero-emission ships needed to use
these fuels is as shown in Table 13, requiring a fleet of 72 million GT in 203020. Taking into
account the 12 million GT of methanol-fueled ships remaining on orderbook as of September
2023, an additional 15 million GT of newbuildings per year will be required over the four-year

20

Annual energy consumption is assumed to be 6,000 MJ/GT.

19

period from 2027 to 2030. This is equivalent to a quarter of the world's current annual
newbuilding deliveries.
Table 13 – Introduction amount of zero-emission ships (case of achieving the zeroemission fuel introduction target for 2030)
2021- 2026

Zero-emission
ships

Existing ships
0.75 mil. GT

Newbuildings
12 mil. GT

Entire fleet

1,250 mil. GT

1,330 mil. GT

2027 - 2030
introduction
amount ofzero-emission ships
Newbuildings
60 mil. GT(15 mil. GT/year)2030

72 mil. GT-

1,430 mil. GT(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) Until delivery in 2026, figures are based on the orderbook as of September 2023.

The GHG emissions from international shipping in 2030, based on the fuel mix in this scenario,
are as shown in Table 14. In the case of achieving the zero-emission fuel introduction target
for 2030, the GHG emissions in 2030 amount to 731 million tons. This exceeds the allowable
GHG emissions of 585 million tons for international shipping to achieve the indicative
checkpoint for 2030 (minimum 20% reduction compared to 2008). In other words, achieving
the zero-emission fuel introduction target for 2030 alone makes it difficult to achieve theindicative checkpoint for 2030.
Table 14 - Annual life cycle GHG emissions in 2030 (case of achieving the zero-emission
fuel introduction target for 2030)
Fuel oilZero-emission
fuel

LNG

Ship energy consumption

7.20 EJ(85%)

0.85 EJ(10%)

Life cycle GHG emissions(WtW)

659 mil. tons CO2eq

71 mil. tons CO2eq--

Indicative checkpoint
for 2030

Total amount

0.42 EJ(5%)
1 mil. tons CO2eq

8.47 EJ(100%)
731 mil. tons CO2eq(Methanol/Ammonia)(0% reduction
from 2008)-

585 mil. tons CO2eq(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) The GHG intensity (WtW) of fuel oil is assumed to be 91.6 gCO2eq/MJ, equivalent to HFO.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of LNG is assumed to be 83.8 gCO2eq/MJ.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of zero-emission fuel is assumed to be 2.6 gCO2eq/MJ.

20

Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030
Next, we examined a scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (minimum
20% reduction compared to 2008).

Energy consumption of ships in 2030 × Σ(each fuel’s “share x GHG intensity”)
8.47 EJ≤ Allowable GHG emissions to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030
585 million tons CO2eq
The fuel mix as of 2030 in this scenario is as shown in Table 15.
Table 15 - Fuel mix (case of achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030)
Fuel oilZero-emission
fuel

LNG

Total amount

Ship energy consumption

5.50 EJ(65%)

0.85 EJ(10%)

2.12 EJ(25%)

Life cycle GHG emissions(WtW)

504 mil. tons CO2eq

71 mil. tons CO2eq

5 mil. tons CO2eq(20.6% reduction
from 2008)

-

-

-

585 mil. tons CO2eq

Indicative checkpoint
for 2030

8.47 EJ(100%)
580 mil. tons CO2eq(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) The GHG intensity (WtW) of fuel oil is assumed to be 91.6 gCO2eq/MJ, equivalent to HFO.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of LNG is assumed to be 83.8 gCO2eq/MJ.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of zero-emission fuel is assumed to be 2.6 gCO2eq/MJ.

By introducing 25% zero-emission fuels on an energy consumption basis, the indicative
checkpoint for 2030 (minimum 20% reduction compared to 2008) can be achieved.
The amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve a 25% share of the energy
consumption base is as shown in Table 16. 106 million tons of methanol or 114 million tonsof ammonia per year will be needed in 2030 to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030.
Table 16 – Introduction amount of zero-emission fuels (case of achieving the indicative
checkpoint for 2030)
Fuel type2030
introduction amountof zero-emission fuels(25% zero-emission fuel)for Methanol

106 mil. tons

for Ammonia

114 mil. tons

Current production scale
for all sectors
106 mil. tons/year(less than 1% of which is zero-emission fuel)183 mil. tons/year(less than 1% of which is zero-emission fuel)(Source: ClassNK estimations)21

If the amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030
is secured, the corresponding amount of zero-emission ships needed to use these fuels is asshown in Table 17, requiring a fleet of 352 million GT in 203021. Taking into account the 12
million GT of methanol-fueled ships remaining on orderbook as of September 2023, anadditional 85 million GT of newbuildings and retrofits of existing ships per year will be
required over the four-year period from 2027 to 2030.
Table 17 – Introduction amount of zero-emission ships (case of achieving the indicative
checkpoint for 2030)
2021- 2026

Zero-emission
ships

Existing ships
0.75 mil. GT

Newbuildings
12 mil. GT

Entire fleet

1,250 mil. GT

1,330 mil. GT

2027 – 2030
introduction amount ofzero-emission ships
Newbuildings and Retrofits
340 mil. GT(85 mil. GT/year)-2030

352 mil. GT

1,430 mil. GT(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) Until delivery in 2026, figures are based on the orderbook as of September 2023.

Reference)

The average value of the fuel’s GHG intensity (WtW) for the entire international
shipping fleet required in the case of achieving the indicative checkpoint for2030 is 68.7 gCO2eq/MJ. This is an unachievable level even if the entire fleet
were to use LNG fuel22.

(Source: Prepared by ClassNK)

Figure 3 – Fuel’s GHG intensity (WtW) to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030
(minimum 20% reduction compared to 2008)

21
22

Annual energy consumption is assumed to be 6,000 MJ/GT.
The average fuel GHG intensity (WtW) for all fleets using LNG (Diesel slow speed) is 76.1 gCO2eq/MJ,
which is more than 68.7 gCO2eq/MJ. This is similarly difficult to achieve even if methane slip measures are
implemented.

22

Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030
(Reference: For biodiesel)
Biodiesel can also play a role in achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030. Biodiesel is a
drop-in fuel that can be used in conventional fuel main engines, and a GHG reduction effecthas been recognized by the IMO for biodiesel that meets certain conditions.
Therefore, we considered a scenario in which the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (minimum
20% reduction compared to 2008) is achieved not with zero-emission fuels but with biodiesel.
The fuel mix as of 2030 in this scenario is as shown in Table 18.
Table 18 - Fuel mix (case of achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030)
Fuel oil

LNG

Biodiesel

Total amount

Ship energy consumption

5.16 EJ(61%)

0.85 EJ(10%)

2.46 EJ(29%)

Life cycle GHG emissions(WtW)

473 mil. tons CO2eq

71 mil. tons CO2eq

37 mil. tons CO2eq(20.5% reduction
from 2008)

-

-

-

585 mil. tons CO2eq

Indicative checkpoint
for 2030

8.47 EJ(100%)
581 mil. tons CO2eq(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) The GHG intensity (WtW) of fuel oil is assumed to be 91.6 gCO2eq/MJ, equivalent to HFO.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of LNG is assumed to be 83.8 gCO2eq/MJ.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of biodiesel is assumed to be 15.0 gCO2eq/MJ, equivalent to that derived fromwaste cooking oil.

By introducing 29% biodiesel (B-100) on an energy consumption basis, the indicative
checkpoint for 2030 (minimum 20% reduction compared to 2008) can be achieved.
The amount of biodiesel required to achieve a 29% share on an energy consumption basis is
as shown in Table 19. 66 million tons of biodiesel per year will be needed in 2030 to achieve
the indicative checkpoint for 2030. The biodiesel currently produced for all sectors is mainly
used for automobile fuel, and further expansion of production is essential for use ininternational shipping.
Table 19 – Introduction amount of biodiesel (case of achieving the indicative checkpoint
for 2030)
Fuel type

For Biodiesel

2030
introduction amountof biodiesel(29% biodiesel)
66 million tons

Current production scale
for all sectors

42 million tons/year(Source: ClassNK estimations)23

Scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040
Based on the energy consumption of ships in 2021 and taking into account the increase inmarine transport volume and the improvement in energy efficiency of ships, the estimatedenergy consumption of ships in 2040 was 8.60EJ.

Energy consumption of ships in 2021 × Rate of increase in marine transport volume
8.79 EJ+39%

× Rate of improvement in energy efficiency of ships-30%= Energy consumption of ships in 2030
8.60 EJ
Next, we examined a scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040 (minimum
70% reduction compared to 2008).

Energy consumption of ships in 2040 × Σ(each fuel’s “share × GHG intensity”)
8.60 EJ≤ Allowable GHG emissions to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2040
219 million tons CO2eq

The fuel mix as of 2040 in this scenario is as shown in Table 20.
Table 20 - Fuel mix (case of achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040)
Fuel oilZero-emission
fuel

LNG

Total amount

Ship energy consumption

1.55 EJ(18%)

0.86 EJ(10%)

6.19 EJ(72%)

Life cycle GHG emissions(WtW)

142 mil. tons CO2eq

72 mil. tons CO2eq

0 mil. tons CO2eq(70.7% reduction
from 2008)

-

-

-

219 mil. tons CO2eq

Indicative checkpoint
for 2040

8.60 EJ(100%)
214 mil. tons CO2eq(Source: ClassNK estimations)(Notes) The GHG intensity (WtW) of fuel oil is assumed to be 91.6 gCO2eq/MJ, equivalent to HFO.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of LNG is assumed to be 83.8 gCO2eq/MJ.
 The GHG intensity (WtW) of zero-emission fuel is assumed to be 0 gCO2eq/MJ.

By introducing 72% zero-emission fuels on an energy consumption basis, the indicative
checkpoint for 2040 (minimum 70% reduction compared to 2008) can be achieved.

24

The amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve a 72% share of an energy consumption
basis is as shown in Table 21. 311 million tons of methanol or 333 million tons of ammonia
per year will be needed in 2040 to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2040.
Table 21 – Introduction amount of zero-emission fuels (case of achieving the indicative
checkpoint for 2040)
2040
introduction amountof zero-emission fuels(72% zero-emission fuel)

Fuel type

For Methanol

311 mil. tons

For Ammonia

333 mil. tons

Current production scale
for all sectors
106 mil. tons/year(less than 1% of which is zero-emission fuel)183 mil. tons/year(less than 1% of which is zero-emission fuel)(Source: ClassNK estimations)

If the amount of zero-emission fuels required to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2040
is secured, the corresponding amount of zero-emission ships needed to use these fuels is asshown in Table 22, requiring a fleet of 1,122 million GT in 2040 23 . Assuming that zeroemission ships are deployed at a level that achieves the indicative checkpoint by 2030, 77
million GT of zero-emission ships per year will be required over the 10-year period of 20312040. If the indicative checkpoint for 2030 is not achieved, it will be necessary to introduce
80 million GT of zero-emission ships per year from 2027 to 2040. However, if the use of emethane, etc. in existing LNG-fueled ships expands by 2040, the required amount of zeroemission ships will decrease.
Table 22 – Introduction amount of zero-emission ships (case of achieving the indicative
checkpoint for 2040)
2030

Zero-emission
ships

Entire fleet

2031 - 2040
introduction amountof zero-emission ships

2040

352 mil. GT

Newbuildings and Retrofits
770 mil. GT(77 mil. GT/year)

1,122 mil. GT

1,430 mil. GT-

1,550 mil. GT(Source: ClassNK estimations)23

Annual energy consumption is assumed to be 5,500 MJ/GT.

25

Discussion: achieving the numerical targets of the2023 IMO GHG Strategy
In order to promote understanding of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, we examined the meaningof the numerical targets in this strategy, and found that it is necessary to secure a significant
amount of zero-emission fuels in international shipping in the future to achieve the numericaltargets. As for methanol and ammonia, which are candidates for zero-emission fuels, most ofthem are currently “non-zero emission fuels” derived from natural gas, and there are virtuallyno production that can make them zero-emission fuels over their entire life cycle. Therefore,
the production and distribution sectors of fuels will need to accelerate investments,
including in carbon-free hydrogen and electricity, more rapidly than with previous efforts indecarbonization. The early introduction of a regulatory framework, including effective carbon
pricing, is essential to facilitate these investment decisions.
Concerning the newbuildings and retrofits of zero-emission ships, it is unlikely that there will
be a significant shortage of newbuildings and retrofits capacity to achieve the numericaltargets as long as a certain amount of ships are built and retrofitted each year. On the other
hand, considering that the mainstay of zero-emission fuels in international shipping is yet to
be determined at this point, and the possibility that multiple zero-emission fuels will be usedin the future according to the type, size, and route of ships, it will be essential to secure
newbuildings and retrofits capacity in line with the pace of development of the various zeroemission fuel production and distribution infrastructure.
The time remaining until 2030, which is the immediate target and checkpoint, is extremely
limited. Achieving the zero-emission goal as outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy
necessitates a collective and urgent effort from all stakeholders, including internationalorganizations, national governments, the maritime industry, the energy sector, shippers, andthe financial sector.
We hope that this document will promote understanding of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy andstimulate a broad discussion among industry stakeholders, thereby helping all stakeholders
involved in shipping to consider future initiatives toward the realization of zero emissions
from international shipping.

26

27

Appendix
GHG emissions

GHG emissions

2008

2021

(Base year)(Latest)2030
indicative
checkpoint2030
indicative
checkpoint(Unit: million tons CO2eq)
2040
2040
indicative
indicative
checkpoint
checkpoint(20% reduction
from 2008)(30% reduction
from 2008)(70% reduction
from 2008)(80% reduction
from 2008)

Life cycle GHG emissions (WtW)

731

798

585

512

219

146

(Breakdown) GHG emissions (WtT)
GHG emissions (TtW)

110
621

122
676

88
497

77
435

33
186

22
124

(Source: ClassNK estimations)

Marine transport volume(Unit: billion ton-miles)
Scenario
Base case(compared to 2021)

High case(compared to 2021)

Low case(compared to 2021)

2008

2018

2021

2030

2040

2050

42,00059,00059,00074,000(+25%)

82,000(+39%)

89,500(+52%)

42,00059,00059,00088,000(+49%)

109,000(+85%)

126,000(+114%)

42,00059,00059,00067,000(+14%)

76,000(+29%)

82,000(+39%)(Source: ClassNK estimations)28

Example scenarios to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (20% reduction compared
to 2008)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-17%

Base case

+25%

-23%

-30%

-17%

-27%

High case

+49%

-23%

-30%

-17%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2030)

+14%

-23%

-30%

Scenarios analyzed in this document

Fuel oil

58%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel32%

Fuel oil

65%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel25%

Fuel oil

72%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel18%

Fuel oil

48%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel42%

Fuel oil

53%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel37%

Fuel oil

59%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel31%

Fuel oil

67%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

23%

Fuel oil

73%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel17%

Fuel oil

81%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel9%

(Source: ClassNK estimations)29

Example scenarios for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (20% reduction
compared to 2008) (for Biodiesel)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-17%

Base case

+25%

-23%

-30%

-17%

-27%

High case

+49%

-23%

-30%

-17%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2030)

+14%

-23%

-30%

Scenarios analyzed in this document

Fuel oil

53%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

37%

Fuel oil

61%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

29%

Fuel oil

70%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

20%

Fuel oil

41%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

49%

Fuel oil

47%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

43%

Fuel oil

54%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

36%

Fuel oil

63%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

27%

Fuel oil

71%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

19%

Fuel oil

80%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

10%(Source: ClassNK estimations)30

Example scenarios for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (30% reduction
compared to 2008)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-17%

Base case

+25%

-23%

-30%

-17%

-36%

High case

+49%

-23%

-30%

-17%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2030)

+14%

-23%

-30%

Fuel oil

50%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel40%

Fuel oil

56%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel34%

Fuel oil

62%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

28%

Fuel oil

40%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel50%

Fuel oil

45%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel45%

Fuel oil

50%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel40%

Fuel oil

57%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

33%

Fuel oil

62%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

28%

Fuel oil

69%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel21%

(Source: ClassNK estimations)31

Example scenarios for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030 (30% reduction
compared to 2008) (for Biodiesel)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-17%

Base case

+25%

-23%

-30%

-17%

-36%

High case

+49%

-23%

-30%

-17%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2030)

+14%

-23%

-30%

Fuel oil

44%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

46%

Fuel oil

50%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

40%

Fuel oil

57%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

33%

Fuel oil

32%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

58%

Fuel oil

37%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

53%

Fuel oil

43%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

47%

Fuel oil

51%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

39%

Fuel oil

58%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

32%

Fuel oil

66%

LNG

10%

Biodiesel

24%(Source: ClassNK estimations)32

Example scenarios for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040 (70% reduction
compared to 2008)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-23%

Base case

+39%

-30%

-36%

-23%

-73%

High case

+85%

-30%

-36%

-23%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2040)

+29%

-30%

-36%

Scenarios analyzed in this document

Fuel oil

16%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel74%

Fuel oil

18%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel72%

Fuel oil

21%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

69%

Fuel oil

10%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel80%

Fuel oil

11%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel79%

Fuel oil

13%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel77%

Fuel oil

18%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel72%

Fuel oil

20%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel70%

Fuel oil

23%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel67%

(Source: ClassNK estimations)33

Example scenario for achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2040 (80% reduction
compared to 2008)
GHG emissions(WtW)(compared to 2021)

Ship energy
efficiency

Marine transport volume(compared to 2021)(compared to 2021)-23%

Base case

+39%

-30%

-36%

-23%

-82%

High case

+85%

-30%

-36%

-23%

Low case

Fuel mix(as of 2040)

+29%

-30%

-36%

Fuel oil

7%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

83%

Fuel oil

9%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel81%

Fuel oil

11%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel79%

Fuel oil

3%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel87%

Fuel oil

4%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel86%

Fuel oil

6%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel

84%

Fuel oil

9%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel81%

Fuel oil

10%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel80%

Fuel oil

12%

LNG

10%

Zero-emission fuel78%

(Source: ClassNK estimations)34

Expected additional supply of methanol and ammonia(Source: Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping24 )Expected supply and demand of biomass as feedstock for biodiesel(Source: Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping)

24

ClassNK participates in this center as a Mission Ambassador.

35

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THE COUNCIL of 13 September 2023 on the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels inmaritime transport, and amending Directive 2009/16/EC. Available: https://eur-lex.
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2.

IEA (2022), Renewables 2022. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables2022/transport-biofuels [Accessed 12 October 2023]

3.

IMO (2014), THIRD IMO GREENHOUSE GAS STUDY. Available: https://wwwcdn.imo.
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October 2023]

4.

IMO (2020), FOURTH IMO GREENHOUSE GAS STUDY. Available: https://wwwcdn.imo.
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IMO (2023), 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (Resolution
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6.

IRENA and AEA (2022), Innovation Outlook: Renewable Ammonia, International
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https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/May/IRENA_
Innovation_Outlook_Ammonia_2022.pdf?rev=50e91f792d3442279fca0d4ee24757ea[Accessed 12 October 2023]

7.

Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (2022), Maritime
Decarbonization Strategy 2022. Available: https://cms.zerocarbonshipping.com/
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36

Pathway to Zero-Emission in International Shippingー Understanding the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy ー[ English ]Please feel free to direct any questions about this document
to the following:Zero-Emission Transition Center, NIPPON KAIJI KYOKAI
Tel: +81-3-5226-2031
E-mail : zxc@classnk.or.jp

Planning DivisionZero-Emission Transition Center
4-7 Kioi-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8567, JAPANTel : +81-3-5226-2031
E-mail : zxc@classnk.or.jp

www.classnk.com

37

October 2023