Japan - June 2024

S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research

A Closer Look at
Tokyo Demographics©ESR LTD

A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

Population in the 23W
increasing and evolving
Summary• The population of the Tokyo 23
Wards (23W) has continued toincrease to new highs after a
temporal dip during the pandemic.
• The Inner East, the Central 5
Wards (C5W), and the Inner
North submarkets have seen thestrongest population growth overthe past few years.
• The number of foreign nationals
in the Tokyo 23W has grownsigniﬁcantly and is projected to
become a larger component of
the population of the C5W andbroader 23W.
• The C5W and 23W have seena growing number of domestic
migrants in the 20-to-29-yearold age band, and generally
fewer in others, suggestingthat this age band may play agreater role.
• The C5W and 23W havetraditionally seen more female
than male migrants, and thistrend looks to continue.
• The supply of for-salecondominiums looks to remain
subdued, which, on top of risingcosts, has also contributed totheir elevated prices.

prefecture, 1.9% in Tokyo 23 Wards (23W),
and 0.5% in Tokyo cities.
The Inner East submarket has been by
far the strongest performer, and all of its
constituent wards have seen population
growth levels that stand head and shoulders
above the 23W average. The recent growth seen
is likely two-pronged. Firstly, the submarket
has seen comparatively more new housing
supply than the rest of the 23W, with thenumber of new housing starts between 2019and 2023 about 6% greater than that of theprevious ﬁve-year period, in contrast withthe 23W seeing a 5% decline. Secondly, thesubmarket borders Chuo ward, where manylarge-scale mixed-use developments are in
the pipeline, including the multiple projects in
Yaesu and Nihonbashi, and have made the area
an increasingly attractive place to live. Some
investors have leveraged this opportunity,
such as UBS pledging around US$230 million
to develop over 500 rental apartments inKoto ward’s Kiba area. The Inner East iscomparatively more aﬀordable to live in, andshould continue to see its population grow.

INTRODUCTION
While Japan’s population has been on a gradualdecline over the past decade, Tokyo has
proved an exception, having continued to see
growth. At the same time, the population’s
characteristics have evolved over the years.
This report seeks to shine a light on recent
population trends and take a closer look at
Tokyo’s new inhabitants.
POPULATION TRENDSTokyo prefecture’s population has grownfrom 13.9 million in 2019 to 14.1 million in
2024. As the economic powerhouse of Japan,
the prefecture has seen positive growth as
it is able to attract large numbers of young
migrants in search of employment andeducation opportunities. As seen in Graph
1, though the population growth of the 23W
temporarily performed more poorly thanTokyo cities1 during the pandemic era,
this trend saw a swift reversal as society
normalised. Overall, between 2019 and 2024,
populations have increased by 1.4% in Tokyo
1 Tokyo cities in the west part of Tokyo prefecture (Tokyo
prefecture outside of Tokyo 23 wards)

MAP 1: Tokyo’s 23 Wards by Survey Area

Adachi

Itabashi
Kita
NerimaKatsushika
Arakawa

Toshima• Conversely, the supply of rental
units looks to remain steady.
Migrants to the 23W are thus
more likely to seek housing in
the rental market.

NakanoBunkyoTaito

SumidaShinjuku

Suginami

Edogawa

ChiyodaShibuya

Chuo

Koto

MinatoSetagaya
MeguroShinagawaTokyo 23 Wards
Central (C5W)
South

Ota

West
North (Inner)
North (Outer)
East (Inner)
East (Outer)

Source Savills Research & Consultancy

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A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

Despite seeing the most pronounced
decline during the pandemic era, the C5W
has seen its population rebound in earnest.
The Inner North submarket was also in thesame boat as the C5W and observed similar
movements. However, performance diﬀeredsigniﬁcantly at the ward level for bothsubmarkets. For instance, Chuo, Chiyoda,
and Bunkyo saw the largest growth between
2019 and 2024 by a large margin, at 11.0%,
6.5%, and 4.6% respectively. A substantial
portion of Chuo ward’s exceptional
performance has been driven by large-scale
residential developments in Harumi; thisspeciﬁc area has seen its population rise by
more than 60% over the same period, andnow comprises 13% of the ward’s population.
For instance, one of the most prominent
developments in the area is Harumi Flag,
that will contain over 5,600 housing units
when completed, bringing with it a plethora
of family-friendly facilities and services that

The population of the 23W has hit newhighs and looks to continue increasing,
especially in more central wards. At
the same time, the composition of the
population is evolving, and looks togradually comprise a larger proportionof foreign nationals and younger
migrants, and this trend is likely tosupport rental markets. Furthermore,
the rental market in the 23W looks set
to perform well due to elevated prices
and the limited supply of for-sale units.

Graph 1: Tokyo Population, January 2019 to April 2024
Tokyo Prefecture

Tokyo 23W

Tokyo Cities

102

APRIL 2019 = 100

102

101

101

100

100

99

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 2: Tokyo 23W Population by Submarket, January 2019 to April 2024
C5W

South

Inner North

Inner EastWest

Outer North

Outer East

106

APRIL 2019 = 100

105
104
103
102
101
100
99

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy

3will allow the area to thrive as a residential
hub. Elsewhere, Chiyoda and Bunkyo havetraditionally been popular with families
as quiet but central wards. For instance,
both are ranked very highly on educational
quality and prestige, and Bunkyo even has
the lowest crime rate within the 23W.
Meanwhile, other wards surrounding
central areas have also seen amicable
population growth, although many
constituents in the South submarket, namely
Setagaya, Ota, and Meguro, and the Westsubmarket’s Suginami, have performed
slightly below average. That said, the postpandemic environment appears to haveoverall shifted most of the attention back to
central areas, probably due to a combinationof dwindling levels of remote work and thepost-pandemic environment breathing life
back into business and retail districts. Thatsaid, some cities west of the 23W have seencommendable population growth between
2019 and 2024, like Kokubunji at 3.7%, andInagi at 3.4% - almost on par with the C5W
average. Many other cities in Tokyo havealso performed around the same level as
peripheral members of the 23W. Indeed,some paradigm shifts that materialised
during the pandemic like greater preferences
for larger room sizes appear to continue
lingering, and inﬂationary pressures may
have driven some to seek such apartmentsthat are more aﬀordable in areas away from
central locations. Nevertheless, the central
wards will likely receive the lion’s share ofattention in the post-pandemic society.

A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

MAP 2: Tokyo Population Change, April 2019 vs April 2024

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 3: Tokyo Foreign National Population by Area*, 2019 to 2024

Tokyo 23W

Tokyo Cities

C5W

130

JANUARY 2019 = 100

120

110

100

90

80

70

60
2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy* Figures are as of January of each respective year

FOREIGN NATIONAL POPULATIONTRENDS
Foreign nationals have grown to become an
essential component of population growthfor Tokyo prefecture. In January 2019, there
were around 550,000 foreign nationals inTokyo or 4.0% of the population, which
has grown to almost 650,000 in January2024, comprising 4.6% of the population.
Incidentally, the foreign national populationof Tokyo cities has risen slightly more
rapidly than the 23W, up 21% (about 18,000

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

people) over the past ﬁ ve years compared to17% (about 78,000 people) within the 23W.
This proportion is expected to continue
increasing with the declining populationof Japanese nationals due to natural
attrition, and the strong immigration trends
observed. In fact, the National Institute ofPopulation and Social Security Research
forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than
10% of people in Japan between 18- to
34-years old will be foreign nationals, up
from 5.7% in 2020. In this light, Tokyo is

4likely to attain this goal much faster than
the national average.
Perhaps counterintuitively, foreign
national population growth in the C5W
underperformed when compared to otherparts of Tokyo, growing 8% between 2019and 2024, although it must be noted that
performance has not been evenly distributed,
with Chuo and Chiyoda both seeing
impressive growth, while other members
have been more lacklustre. However, it isimportant to note that the C5W is thoughtof as foreigner-friendly, and still serves
as an extremely popular point of entry forforeign nationals emigrating to Tokyo. In
fact, according to statistics from the Tokyo
Metropolitan Government, between 2019and 2023, more than 20% of Tokyo foreign
immigrants initially moved into the C5W, with
Shinjuku receiving the lion’s share of 70%.
Despite the large inﬂux of foreign
immigrants into the C5W, the proportion offoreign nationals in the C5W has counterintuitively been on the decline, decreasingfrom 15% in 2019 to 14% in 2024. Indeed,
upon closer inspection, internal migration
trends show that the C5W has seen a
consistent net outﬂow of foreign nationals,
mostly to other wards in the 23W, and to
Greater Tokyo. Indeed, it appears that many
foreign nationals in the C5W choose to moveelsewhere after a few years, perhaps once they
become more familiar with Tokyo, or are insearch of larger, more aﬀordable units. That

A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

said, the outﬂow of foreign nationals fromthe C5W has been declining over the past few
years, suggesting that the C5W has grown tobecome more popular as more than an entry
point with foreign nationals. This trend canalso be observed for the broader 23W, which
saw annual net outﬂows of foreign nationals
of around 5,000 - 6,000 in 2018 and 2019,
shifting to strongly positive net inﬂows ofover 6,000 in 2023.

To gauge the relative impact of foreign
nationals on the population of eachconstituency, we have analysed the change
in the proportion of foreign nationals in eachward or city. In this vein, as seen in Map 2,
eastern and northern submarkets, alongwith a few members of the C5W, have seen
the largest changes. One prominent factor atplay could be the cluster eﬀect where peopleof similar backgrounds tend to congregate

Graph 4: Tokyo Foreign Nationals Internal Net Migration for C5W, by Destination,2018 to 2023
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

500

NUMBER OF PEOPLE

0-500-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000-3,500Tokyo 23W
ex C5W

Tokyo Prefecture
ex 23W

Kanagawa, Saitama, Other Prefectures
Chiba

Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications (MIC), Savills Research & Consultancy

in the same area. For example, the NishiKasai district in Edogawa ward appears
exceptionally popular with Indian nationals,
while Toshima ward has a notably large
number of Burmese nationals. Elsewhere,
although already the largest foreign national
demographic by a signiﬁcant extent, a
recent large inﬂux of Chinese nationals has
also been recorded across many wards, but
especially in more central ones. For instance,
in Chiyoda, Chinese nationals only comprised
40% of the foreign national populationin 2018 but rose to 55% in 2024. Indeed,a considerable number of these Chinese
immigrants appear to be more aﬄuent ones
and could play a greater role in shaping themarkets in central wards.
Going forward, the foreign national
demographic in Tokyo is expected tocontinue growing, many of whom will likely
be renters. Given the diﬃculties in navigating
the Japanese real estate market, some foreign
nationals would likely be willing to pay a
premium for accommodating leasing services
and desired amenities. In fact, some players
have realised this, and have appropriately
marketed their properties to such clientele,by oﬀering services in diﬀerent languages
and simplifying the renting process, forinstance. Indeed, it is a market that investors
may need to pay increasing attention to, andperhaps incorporate into their strategy.

MAP 3: Tokyo Foreign National Population, Change in Proportion of Foreigners by Constituency, April 2019 vs April 2024

Source Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Savills Research & Consultancy

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A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

Graph 5: Internal Net Migration for C5W, by Age, 2018 to 2023

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

12,00010,000NUMBER OF PEOPLE

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000-4,000-6,000
Total

0-9

10-19

20-29
30-39
AGE RANGE

40-49

50-59

>60

Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications (MIC), Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 6: Taxable Income per Taxpayer, by City, 2010 to 2023

Tokyo 23 Ward

Osaka City

Nagoya City

Fukuoka CityAll Japan

76

YEN (MILLION)

5

4

3

2

1

0
2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source National Tax Agency, Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 7: Japanese Nationals Internal Net Migration for C5W, by Origin, 2018
to 2023
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

14,00012,000NUMBER OF PEOPLE

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000-4,000-6,000Total

Tokyo 23W
ex C5W

Tokyo
Prefecture
ex 23W

Kanagawa,
Saitama, Chiba

Other
Prefectures

Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications (MIC), Savills Research & Consultancy

savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/

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DOMESTIC MIGRATION TRENDS
A closer look at net migration in the C5W
by age band expounds some interesting
trends about whom the area has grown in
popularity with. As seen in Graph 5, the20-to-29-year-old age band comprises nearly
the entirety of net inﬂows of the C5W andhas grown beyond pre-pandemic levels asof 2023. In 2018, net migration for this age
band was less than 9,000, but in 2023, it
had risen to more than 11,000. In addition,
similar trends have also been observedin the wider 23W. One major factor likely
contributing to this is the employment
and educational opportunities in Tokyo;
the average taxable income per taxpayer ofthe 23W clearly exceeds those of regional
economic powerhouses and has also seen themost impressive growth over the past decadeby a large margin. As such, working andliving in central Tokyo would be the mostappealing option for career-driven young
professionals. Furthermore, the appeal ofliving in bustling, central Tokyo which has
seen many developments in the past decade
has likely spawned a cluster eﬀect of young,like-minded individuals.
On the other hand, the C5W appears tohave fallen slightly out of favour with age
bands that are likely to represent younger
family households, like the 0-to-9-year-old
and 30-to-39-year-old age bands. There
are two likely reasons that have primarily
contributed to this. Firstly, the pandemic
episode has paved the way for greater levelsof remote work in Tokyo, and while on the
decline, many companies keep ﬂexible work
arrangements in place, hence reducing
the need of some people to live in central
locations. Secondly, young family households
are more likely to purchase a home, and therising price tags of condominiums in central
areas has likely priced many out, resulting insome households searching for homes in more
aﬀordable areas. Construction and land costs
appear unlikely to see meaningful declines
in the near future, suggesting that this trend
should continue, at least for the time being.
In the previous section, we discussed thatin pre-pandemic times, foreign nationals
already living in Japan typically exhibiteda tendency to migrate out of the C5W,
although the area has grown more popular in
the post-pandemic environment. However,migration trends of Japanese nationals
appear to be the opposite. Looking at Graph7, in pre-pandemic times, the C5W saw
net inﬂows of more than 12,000 Japanesenationals, but dipped considerably during
the pandemic, and similar trends were also
observed in the broader 23W. Overall, net

A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

migration of Japanese nationals into the C5W
and the 23W appear to linger below prepandemic times.
Another pattern worth highlighting is that
the C5W sees a considerably larger numberof female migrants than male migrants.
This appears consistent across all age bands
with the axiomatic exception of the 0-to-9year-old band, where net migration ﬁgures
were around the same. This appears to be alongstanding trend, rooted in the modern,fast-paced, and progressive lifestyle that
only big cities can oﬀer, which likely attracts
more female residents looking to escape thestereotypically old-fashioned ones. Thisknowledge could play into strategic tenant
targeting, as female tenants generally havediﬀerent preferences for rental units, such as
having separate washbasins or auto locks.
Overall, a closer inspection of recent
domestic net migration ﬁgures in the C5W
and extended 23W points to a general trendof a growing number of young migrants,
namely in the 20-to-29-year-old age
band, and a slightly diminished number ofJapanese national migrants, in contrast to a
growing pool of foreign nationals. Investors
could take steps to tune their portfolios to
be in line with where demographic trends
are projected.
HOUSING TRENDS
According to the 2018 national Housing
and Land survey conducted by the Ministry

Graph 8: Internal Net Migration for C5W, by Gender, 2018 to 2023
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

5,000

NUMBER OF PEOPLE

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000-2,000-3,000Male

FemaleSource Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications (MIC), Savills Research & Consultancy

Graph 9: Tokyo 23W Newly Constructed For-sale Condominium Supply and Price,2011 to Q1/2024
SupplyPrice per sq m (RHS)

30,000

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

20,000

1,200
1,000

15,000800
10,000600

YEN (THOUSAND)NUMBER OF UNITS

25,000

400

5,000

200
0

0

Source Real Estate Economic Institute, Savills Research & Consultancy

7of Land, Infrastructure, Transport andTourism (MLIT), about 55% of people inTokyo 23W, and about 60% in the C5W
live in rental housing. However, since theresults of the last survey, signiﬁcant events
including the pandemic and decline infor-sale housing have reshaped the market,
and the proportion of people living in rental
housing has likely increased.
The for-sale condominium market in
the 23W since the pandemic has beencharacterised by subdued supply andnoticeably increased prices. As seen in Graph10, the number of new for-sale condominiums
units has been decreasing over the past
decade, with the average yearly supply
between 2019 - 2023 about 30% lower thanthe previous 5-year period. While partiallycontributed by the pandemic and supply
chain disruptions, most of this stems fromthe limited availability of suitable land,
and rising costs of labour, raw materials,
and energy, exacerbated somewhat by the
weakened yen. These bottlenecks are likely
to linger, with stricter labour laws enacted
in April 2024 further impairing the labour
shortage. Indeed, a survey conducted by
Nikkei has shown that average construction
periods as of 2024 were about 30% longer
than they were in 2014.
In addition, the average price per sq m of
newly constructed condominiums in the 23W
has risen by more than 50% between 2019 and2023. The high prices in 2023 and Q1/2024
were attributed partly to some exceptionallyexpensive units targeting high-net-worthindividuals that came to the market, althoughsuch additions to the market appear to havebecome more commonplace. Wage growthin Tokyo 23W, while improving, has been
dwarfed in contrast to the rise in property
prices, meaning that those looking to move tothe 23W are likely to rent, while those insistent
on homebuying may resort to other areas.
MLIT estimates that as of 2018, 50% of
renters in the 23W lived in housing withmonthly rents of between JPY50,000 and
JPY100,000. However, more than 30% of
renters also pay more than JPY100,000 per
month for rent, which is signiﬁcantly morethan other major economic hubs, like 8%
in Osaka City. Furthermore, an interesting
characteristic is that the median commutetime does not appear to diﬀer signiﬁcantly
for mid-market rents. This suggests that evenlocations of reasonable distance from city
centres can command high rents if they meetdesirable characteristics, such as having goodaccess to train stations, having suﬃcient
ﬂoor space, and amenities in the property.
Furthermore, the pandemic has likely
pushed median commute times even higher.

A Closer Look at Tokyo Demographics

Graph 10: Tokyo 23W, Rental Market Distribution and Median Commute Time, 2008
to 2023
Proportion of Rental Population

Median Commute Time (RHS)

14%

45
40

12%

35
30
8%

25

6%

20

MINUTESPROPORTION

10%

15
4%
10
2%

5

0%

0

RENT (YEN THOUSAND)
Source Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Savills Research & Consultancy

This norm in the Tokyo 23W of having longcommute times could be the reason why rental
developments further away from central areas
are likely to continue going forward.
Overall, housing trends in the Tokyo
23W have seen signiﬁcantly higher for-salecondominium prices and subdued supply.
In contrast, the rental housing starts trends
remain stable. The signiﬁcant disparity
between the aﬀordability and availability ofrental housing over for-sale housing should
thus push more residents to the rental
market. Furthermore, recent wage growth,
especially in the 23W, should allow for somelevel of sustainable rental growth going
forward, signalling a stable leasing market.
OUTLOOK
The population of Tokyo has risen to newhighs, having recovered from the troughobserved during the pandemic, withpopulation growth in the 23W leapfrogging
that of other cities and towns in theprefecture, and is projected to keep growing.
Population trends in the 23W have seen
central areas, namely the Inner East, theC5W, and the Inner North submarkets
performing best in terms of population

growth especially in the post-pandemic era,
fuelled by a combination of higher levels ofoﬃce attendance, and new developments
in central areas that have made it a more
appealing place to live in.
At the same time, a closer look suggests
noticeable changes in the breakdown of the
population of the 23W. Firstly, the numberof foreign nationals is expected to increase,both from external and internal migration,and especially in central wards. Secondly,
although already a popular destination
for the 20-to-29-year-old age band, theproportion of people in this age band moving
to and living in the 23W looks set to increase
even more. The proportion of new femalemigrants into the 23W is also expected toremain high. Elsewhere, the rental market
in Tokyo is likely to remain stable going
forward with strong demand, as the elevatedprices of for-sale condominiums has maderenting a home appear much more aﬀordable
than purchasing one, on top of positive
demographic trends. As such, some families
keen on purchasing homes are likely to lookoutside the 23W.
Central areas in the Tokyo 23W will see
multiple developments that will transformthe city, and make them more desirable
places to live in. Demand for rental units inthe 23W should remain strong. At the sametime, for residential managers to understandhow to market their properties and whatvalue-add propositions would make the mosteconomic sense, greater insight into ongoing
demographic changes may be necessary given
the evolving market.

For more information about this report, please contact us

Savills JapanJon Salyards
Managing Director,
Institutional Investment Advisory+81 3 4330 3266
jsalyards@savills.co.jp

Savills Research
Andy Hurfurt
Managing Director,
Institutional Investment Advisory+81 3 4330 3328
ahurfurt@savills.co.jp

Tetsuya Kaneko
Managing Director, Head of
Research & Consultancy, Japan+81 3 4330 3103
tkaneko@savills.co.jp

Simon Smith
Regional Head of Research& Consultancy, Asia Paciﬁc+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.asia

Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offi ces and associates throughout the Americas, the UK,continental Europe, Asia Paciﬁc, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative
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