IEEJ : May 2011

Country Report Presentation: Pakistan
Energy Crisis and Solution
By

Muhammad Latif
Chief, Energy Wing, Planning Commission

Presented at:
JICA Training and Dialogue Program on ENERGY POLICY
8‐28 May, 2011

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan’s Capital: Islamabad

IEEJ : May 2011

Faisal Mosque Islamabad

IEEJ : May 2011

K‐2: the second tallest peak

IEEJ : May 2011

Karakuram mountains in North Pakistan

IEEJ : May 2011

Mahdond Lake in Upper swat valley in north of Pakistan

IEEJ : May 2011

The Kunar river in kaghan Valley North Pakistan

IEEJ : May 2011

Spring time in Chitral, North Pakistan

IEEJ : May 2011

Tomb of founder of Pakistan Quaid Azam M. Ali Jinnah in Karachi

IEEJ : May 2011

Sunset at Clifton Beach, Karachi

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan Tower in Lahore

IEEJ : May 2011

Badshahi mosque at night in Lahore

IEEJ : May 2011

Hanna lake in quetta Balochistan

IEEJ : May 2011

Tarbela Dam with 3,478 MW Generation Capacity

IEEJ : May 2011

1000 MW Mangla Dam Hydel Plant

IEEJ : May 2011

Thar desert in Sind possessing 175 billion tonne ofLignite

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan possesses all the Four Seasons with Extremes• The hottest temperature ever recorded in Asiaand the Fourth highest ever in the world was inMohenjo‐daro, Sindh 53.5 °C (128.3 °F) on
May 26, 2010 and at least 18 people died as aresult.
• Apart from scarcely populated glacial regions inNorth where temperature falls as low as ‐50 °C,
the lowest temperature in inhabited area wasrecorded in Kallat in Balochistan a few years ago,
which was ‐29 °C.

IEEJ : May 2011

First Japanese manufactured nuclear turbine underlicense from GE is installed at KANUPP installed in 1972

This turbine is still in perfect operating condition.

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan’s Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009)

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan’s Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009)

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan’s Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009)

The close relationship between economic, energy and electricity growth shows theimportance of sufficient and affordable electricity.
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan’s Per capita Energy Consumption is very low
Region/CountryMillion BTU/CapitaWorld average

72

Singapore

477

Canada

427

USA

334

Europe

146

Japan

179

Middle East

127

China

56

Central & S. America

53

Asia & Oceana

43

India

16

Pakistan

14

IEEJ : May 2011

Fossil Fuel Resource Potential of Pakistan(as of 30 June 2010)(MTOE)
Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Resource potential

3,622

6,849

78,450

Provenrecoverablereserves

130

1,067

845

Cumulative
production, so far88568~89

Remainingrecoverable
reserves

41499

797

Annual production

3.3

29.3

1.6

Reserves toproduction ratio

12 years

17 years~528 years

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 201023

IEEJ : May 2011

Transmission (KM)

6,729

3,294

10,023Distribution (KM)

52,93230,173

83,105

Towns / Villages No.

1,019

1,533

2,552

Peshawar

SH

TOTAL

K
A

SSGC

Islamabad&SNGPL

W
NJA
M
M

UITEM

M
IR

Pakistan Natural Gas Infrastructure

FP
LahoreFaisalabad

NPUIndiAC1X-SUIaAN
SukkurGas Field
SSGCL LinesH

SNGPL LinesINDOLBASTICH

Sui

Compressor
StationsS

Iran

MultanJA
BQuetta

Karachi

Major LoadCentre

IEEJ : May 2011

Comm. Energy Consumption by Sector

IEEJ : May 2011

Electricity Generation 2009‐10

IEEJ : May 2011

Electricity Consumption by Sector

IEEJ : May 2011

Sectoral Electricity Consumption Mix in 2004 and 2010

Sector2003-04

2009-10

Domestic

45.0%

46.1%

Commercial

6.4%

7.5%

Industrial

30.2%

26.7%

Agriculture

11.6%

13.0%

Others

6.8%

6.7%

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan Energy Security Plan 2030
Nuclear

Hydel

Coal

Renewable

OilGas

Total

Existing(2005)

400

6,460

160

180

6,400

5,940

19,540

2010

-

1,260

900

700

160

4,860

7,880

2015

900

7,570

3,000

800

300

7,550

20,120

2020

1,500

4,700

4,200

1,470

300

12,56024,730

2025

2,000

5,600

5,400

2,700

300

22,49038,490

2030

4,000

7,070

6,250

3,850

300

30,36051,830

Total

8,800

32,66019,910

9,700

7,760

83,760

162,590

Source: Energy Security Action Plan, Planning Commission of Pakistan, 2005
29

IEEJ : May 2011

Electricity Generation Capacity (MW)Installed
As In 2005

Planned for2010**

Hydro

6,460

7,720

6,480

Oil & Gas

12,34017,360

13,204

Coal

160

1,060

150

Nuclear

400

400

400

Renewables

1808802

Total Capacity

19,36027,42020,258Winter Capacity (actual)

12,40019,636

13,832

Summer Capacity (actual)

15,60023,536

17,878Demand (Peak Load)

14,621

21,426

19,257** In 2005, was projected to be 17,904 MW.
** As in Medium Term Development Framework, 2005.

ExistingIn 2010

IEEJ : May 2011

Electricity Generation ‐ Capacity Factors
WAPDA/ NTDC System
Capacity Factor (%)
No. of Capacity
Plants(MW)2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

TypeHydro

14

6,444

54%

56%

51%

49%

IPPs

175,923

53%**

63%

64%***

66%

GENCOs

10

4,779

54%

52%

49%

47%

Nuclear1

325

76%

68%

86%

37%

Total

42

17,471

54%

57%*

56%*

54%*

* Had this been 70%, load‐shedding would not be so severe.
** Due to lower demand?

Source: GM (Planning), NTDC*** Due to fuel shortage?

There is a need to improve the Capacity Factor.
Incentive bonus related to production is one of the solutions.

IEEJ : May 2011

Transmission & Distribution Losses and Theft (2007-08)
Transmission
Losses (%)

LESCODistribution
Losses (%)
12.8

GEPCO

11.1FESCO

11.2

IESCO

10.3

DISCO

6.6%

MEPCO

18.5

PESCO+TESCO

34.5

HESCO

35.9

QESCO

20.8

Total WAPDA

18.5

KESC

5.1%

OECD Countries

Areas with greater
private industrial load

29.0

Total: 7 – 8 %The high losses need to be reduced.
i) Up-gradation of transmission & distribution system; ii) Electricity consumption bills
on internet and iii) Incentives to personnel of better performance grids and publicity ofworst performing grids.

IEEJ : May 2011

Seasonal Variation of Hydel Generation (2007-08)

Total

TarbelaGhazi BarothaMangla

IEEJ : May 2011

Energy Losses in Power System (Generation, Transmission, Distribution &Consumption) and Improvements Possible
Small InefficientPower Station

FuelEnergy
MTOE(2009)22.3

Loss66%

7.5

Loss23%

5.7

Loss30%-50%

2.9 – 4.0

Achievable

11.1

40%

6.7

8% - 10%

6.0

30%

4.0

Large EfficientCombined Cycle

Fuel

With half the fuel consumed, the circular debt phenomena could have been avoided.

IEEJ : May 2011

Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak‐IEM)
ObjectiveTo develop a sustainable planningcapability employing an integrated
energy system model that will enablea national team of experts to assess
impacts of various strategies formeeting future energy requirements
in an optimal manner
35

IEEJ : May 2011

Pak‐IEM: Institutional Structure
Planning Commission
Donor Agencies

Technical Support for
Model Improvements
and Studies

Define policy studies, integrate results
into the planning process, and ensureongoing funding

National Integrated Energy
Modeling Centre
Energy Wing staff who maintain the Pak‐IEM
database, perform policy analysis, andcoordinate studies and model improvements

Research Centers &Universities
Analysts, professors and graduate
students who use and improve themodel

Pak‐IEM Advisory
Committee
Ministries, Agencies, Regulators &Other Stakeholders

Advisory Task ForceExperts from the Ministries andIndustries to provide technicalsupport and guidance

Study Teams
Assembled by Planning Unit for
specific studies or tasks

36

IEEJ : May 2011

Pak‐IEM: Contributing Stakeholders
Regulators

M/o P&NR

FutureTechnologies

NEPRA, OGRA

Resource Supply

IEA, USDOE
Local Experts

DG Oil, Gas & PC

Pak‐IEM

UpstreamPower Sector

Refineries

M/o W&P

SNGPL & SSGCLWAPDA, KESC,
PPIB

Demand Sectors
HDIP

Agriculture
NARC

DemandProjections
M/o F, PIDE

Commercial
HB‐PakResidential
UETT, HB‐Pak

Industry
MEC, ENERCONTransport
NTRC

NTDC, DISCOs
AEDBThar Coal & EnergyBoard37

IEEJ : May 2011

Pak‐IEM: Reference Energy System
PRIMARY ENERGYSUPPLYCONVERSIONTECHNOLOGIES(PRIMARY ENERGY)

Mining, e.g.
 Crude oil Natural gas
 CoalImports, e.g.
 Crude oil
 Oil products
Exports, e.g.
 Oil products CoalRenewables,
Renewables, e.g.
 Biomass Hydro Solar WindRESOURCE SUPPLYCOST CURVES

END‐USETECHNOLOGIES(FINAL ENERGY)

Fuel ProcessingPlants, e.g.
 Oil refineries Hydrogen Ethanol
Power Plants, e.g.
 Conventional
 IGCC Solar Wind Nuclear CCGT Fuel cells
 CHP

TECHNOLOGY COST AND
PERFORMANCE

DEMAND FOR ENERGYSERVICE(USEFUL ENERGY)

Industry, e.g.
 Steam boilers
 Machinery

Industry, e.g.
 Process steam Motive power

Commercial, e.g.
 Air conditioners
 Light bulbs

Commercial, e.g.
 Cooling Lighting

Households, e.g.
 Space heaters
 Refrigerators

Households, e.g.
 Space heat Refrigeration

Agriculture, e.g.
 Pumps Tractors

Agriculture, e.g.
 Water supply

Transport, e.g.
 Gasoline car
 Fuel cell bus

Transport, e.g.
 PersonPerson-km

DEVICE COST AND
PERFORMANCE

DEMAND PROJECTIONS38IEEJ : May 2011

Current Energy Crisis: Causes• Weak planning & Implementation• Unfavorable policies/ environment for private
investment due to past policy reversals.
• Indecisiveness of the relevant departments causingdelays.
• Lack of coordination among stakeholders.

IEEJ : May 2011

Current Energy Crisis: Bottlenecks• Many players involved in Thar coal development.
• Delay in implementation of mega hydel projects.
• Single supplier for nuclear power technology/projects (China).

IEEJ : May 2011

Current Energy Crisis: Short Term Measures•Immediately Implement Energy Efficiency measures•Campaigns for energy conservation•Improve Fuel (Oil & Gas) supply by addressing Circular Debtproblem.

•Control Electricity Theft and improve Tariff regime.

IEEJ : May 2011

Current Energy Crisis: Long Term Measures•Rationalize gas prices and its inter‐sectoral use.

•Develop Base Load Capacity based on Hydel, Coal and Nuclearpower.

•Discourage use of Oil for power generation.

•For credible balance between demand and supply, develop
integrated energy modeling system.

•Supply side should be kept consistent with the expected nationalgrowth.

•Involve private sector in energy policy formulation.

•

Close Coordination among various stakeholders in the energysector•

Market forces to work in the Energy sector with strong regulator.

IEEJ : May 2011

Expectations from The Training Course• Pakistan is going to establish Pakistan Energy
Research & Information Center• We will appreciate if Japan can help us in itsestablishment• What is experience of Japan in this area

IEEJ : May 2011

Thank You

ありがとう (Arigatō)Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp