ICHARM CHALLENGES FORCONTRIBUTION TO WATER RELATEDDISASTER REDUCTION AND PREVENTION
Nov. 25, 2013
GEOSS Joint Asia-Africa Water Cycle Symposium

YOICHI IWAMIICHARM
International Center for Water Hazard and Risk
Management
under the auspices of UNESCO hosted by PWRI, Tsukuba

ICHARM Objective
International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management• To be the global Center of Excellence to provide andassist implementation of the best practicablestrategies to localities, nations, regions and theworld to manage the risk of water related hazards
including floods, droughts, land slides, debris flows
and water contamination.
– At the first stage, the priority is flood-related disasters.

6 March, 2006 at Tsukuba

ICHARM’s Philosophy: Localism
Delivering best available knowledge to local practices
Working as a Knowledge
Hub on W&D through TA
Supported by ADB
UNESCO Pakistan Project

Local Practices

WWAP,AWDO

WWF,
APWF

IFIPe
Net rsonal
working

UNESCOCenters

・Master Course
Hazard Mapping Course
River & Dam Course
Supported
Trainingby JICA
・Ph.D. CourseThe
1st PhaseFocus:
Flood-relatedRiskManagementonati gorm kin
Inf twor
NeIRDRSentinel Asia
IFNet/GFAS

Flood Alert system
Hazard mapping(IFAS, BTOP, RRI models)

Research Flood risk assessment

UNISDR GP-GAR Flood Preparedness
Indicators/Standard

under climate change
Supported by MEXT
(Sousei Program)

Early Warning - IFAS(Integrated Flood Analysis system)
for insufficient observed basin
Global data: topography, soils,
land use, and so on

Import satellite rainfall
and ground-gauged data

input

Courtesy of JAXA
Run-off analysis by PWRI
distributed tank model

Model creation

Water level,Rainfall distribution

Surface model

Aquifer modelJudge by River
management
authorities

Evacuate from dangerous areas

ut Output: River discharge,pinRiver course
model

Alert message by E-mailand on the display for rivermanagement authorities

Discharge
reaches
warning level

4

IFAS installation and identifying flood causes in Pampanga
and Cagayan river basins in the Philippines
Pampanga River

Cagayan RiverÜ

10,454km2
18 rainfall stations
11 water level stations

27,280km2
5 rainfall stations
5 water level stations

TuguegaraoTumauini
Gamu
Maris Dam
Pangal-195 - 0
0 - 5050 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300

Mayapyap station
Ground02020151550
2011/9/26

Ground25

10

2011/9/27

2011/9/28

Rain (Ground)

2011/9/29
Measured Q

2011/9/30

2011/10/1

Ground2011/10/2

2011/10/3

GSMaP original

2011/10/4

2040

60

80

500 - 1,000

3B42RT

1,000 - 2,000

100km

2,000 - 3,000

50
2006/1/23

2006/1/24

2006/1/25

Rain

2006/1/26

2006/1/27

Measured Q

2006/1/28
Ground

2006/1/29

2006/1/30

GSMaP

2006/1/31
3B42RT

14000

06000

10GSMaP

10

Ground with dam

7000

Gamu station

400 - 500

GSMaP original

Rainfall (mm/hr)

Rainfall (mm/hr)

25300 - 400

051200051010000

15
3000

20

Discharge (m3/s)

4000

8000

20

6000

2530

Rainfall (mm/hr)

15

10

Rainfall (mm/hr)

Discharge (m3/s)

5000

4000

2000

35
25

1000

0
2011/9/2630
2011/9/27

2011/9/28

2011/9/29

2011/9/30

2011/10/1

2011/10/2

2011/10/3

2011/10/4

IFAS results at Mayapyap station

2000

40

0
2006/1/23

45
2006/1/24

2006/1/25

2006/1/26

2006/1/27

2006/1/28

2006/1/29

2006/1/30

2006/1/31

IFAS results at Gamu station5

13 Oct, 2011 by MODIS

Emergency
inundation
Simulation in
Chao Phraya
river basin in
Thailandas of Oct.14,
2011

Simulation on
Oct 18, 2011 by ICHARM5m

Sayama’s RRI (Rainfall - Runoff Inundation) modelby using satellite data (3B42RT)

Nakhon Sawan

Ayutthaya

Bangkok

1 : July 2
31 : Aug 1
62 : Sep 1
92 : Oct 1
123 : Nov 1
152 : Nov 30
60m

2010 Pakistan flood
29 July
Kabulriver

UNESCO Project (2 years: 2012-14)
Strategic Strengthening of Flood Warning
and Management Capacity of Pakistan
satellite based rainfall(mm)discharge(m3/s)

30,000025,000
20,00015,00015 July to 18 August

10,0005105,000

Satellite based rainfall
GSMaP ICHARM modified

Kabuｌｌ river at Nowshera

15

15-Jul16-Jul17-Jul18-Jul20-Jul21-Jul
22-Jul23-Jul
25-Jul
26-Jul
27-Jul
28-Jul30-Jul
31-Jul
1-Aug
2-Aug
4-Aug
5-Aug
6-Aug
7-Aug
9-Aug
10-Aug11-Aug12-Aug
14-Aug15-Aug
16-Aug17-Aug013 September
Kabul
OCHA
river

satellite based rainfal(mm)discharge(m3/s)

60,000Target areafor IFAS

050,000
40,00015 July to 18 August

530,000
20,000+ RRI
model

10,00010Indus river at Kalur Kot

015

15-Jul16-Jul17-Jul18-Jul20-Jul21-Jul
22-Jul23-Jul
25-Jul
26-Jul
27-Jul
28-Jul30-Jul
31-Jul
1-Aug
2-Aug
4-Aug
5-Aug
6-Aug
7-Aug
9-Aug
10-Aug11-Aug12-Aug
14-Aug15-Aug
16-Aug17-AugDischarge
input

7

Basic technology from GCM rainfall
estimates to flood risk assessment
Various GCM
experimental onfuture/current climate
Basin scale rainfall
information

8

Various scenario
Downscaling/ Biais correction

将来気候-現在気候

Uncertainty assessment

Hydrological models

IFAS / RRI
Projection of discharge
variation

Uncertainty assessment

Projection of water levelvariation

Uncertainty assessment

Projection of water
depth variation

Uncertainty assessment

Chao PhrayaMekong

1/10,1/25,1/50 FHM
Water Depth (m)Flood frequency map
Socio-economic
impactassessement

Indus

Flood risk House, industrial, agricultural damages
Drought risk ，Water resource assessment, waterstress, risk partition

Disaster Risk monitoring indices

SoloPampamga

ICHARM Challenges for contribution to Hyogo Framework forAction 2 & post-2015 MDGs : Development of Global Risk IndicesThis consultation is planned to offer water-related risk assessment methods, and help policy-makers
and investors take risk sensitive actions. We show that extreme flood risks are measured by using
improved methods and risk indices, and provide practical implications for Asia Pacific region

Type of disasters: flood (and drought)
Spatial coverage: Asia-Pacific region
The results of several river basin examples to be introduced for explaining
success, difficulty and limitation as case study- Risk concept: fatalities (or economic damages) are functions ofhazard, exposure, and vulnerability-in cooperation with MLIT and UNISDR Kobe office Expected recommendations

Major inputs to the Asia-Pacific consultation

 Identification of methodological limitations and improvement plans Suggestion on the way to measure DRR-related targets in the HFA2 and post-2015
MDGs
 Suggestion on the practical and credible risk assessment methodologies
 Suggestion on the possibilities of improving national risk profiles, which include subnational level information about risk indices, effectiveness of prevention efforts, andkey risk drivers
 Suggestion on the water-related risk map for Asia-Pacific regionOUTLINE OF GLOBAL FLOOD RISK INDICES
For a comprehensive, integrated, multi-disciplinary approach
III

Quantifying natural aspects of present risksIVulnerability• Output: how hazardous are naturalconditions?
HAZARDASSESSMENT • Example: flood inundation depth in an area
IIEXPOSURE
ASSESSMENT• Output: how many people orassets are affected by hazards?
• Example: number of people inhazardous areasAssessment• Output: what factors increase or
decrease potential damage? identification of factors which
influence risk
• Example: proxies related toIV

RISK
ASSESSMENT• Output: how people or our assets
would be damaged?
• Example: fatalities, asset losses,

and productivity losses

Actions & welldesigned monitoring
activities

V•

Preparedness
Assessment•

marginalized group, unplanned
urbanization, politicalcorruption, and coping capacity

Quantifying ourpresent risks

Output: evaluation of effectiveness of
disaster risk reduction actions (including
structural & non-structural measures)
Example: how effectively DRR education andearly warning systems would reduce the 10
present risks

PRELIMINARY OUTCOMES OF ICHARM
Kazakhstan
RISK = 0.01 ><ASIAN APPLICATION: 14 countries

56N

Study sites: 14 countries in Asia
Flood hazard and exposure - simulated at the50-year return period
Proxies for vulnerability and risk calculation
formula - estimated

1. Input conditions
 Flood hazard and exposure: FID simulation in case of 50-year return period discharge.
Tajikistan
RISK = 0.02

Nepal
RISK = 0.14

Korea
RISK = 0.03
Bangladesh
RISK = 0.16
Japan
RISK = 0.01

Laos
RISK = 0.04

47E

Pakistan
RISK = 0.08

Viet Nam
RISK = 0.06
ThailandRISK = 0.05

Philippines
RISK = 0.06

Affected people
Dense : over 1000

Thin: 1 person/km2

147E

Cambodia
RISK = 0.07

India
RISK = 0.06
Indonesia
RISK = 0.04

12S

2. Results of mapping flood risk
RISK = flood fatalities per 100 km2
Affected people: 1km cell-gridded
Risk index (flood fatalities) was measured at country level, but it was possible to anticipate hotspots within thecountry.

Thank you for your kind attention !

2/12/201312