【欧州】【自動車】
Road/Railway – New legal instruments on environment forvehicles: Possible implications of the EU’s introduction ofprovisional countervailing duties on EVs imported from China

Andrea Antolini

Former Researcher JTTRI【概要：Summary】【記事：Article】

Agaist the backdrop of the EU’s ambitious green

1. Background of the development of Chinesetransition target that all newly registered

EV manufacturers and Chinese EV producers

passenger cars should be zero-emission vehicles

in the global EV market

by 2035, the EU is an interesting market for the

Based on the EU’s green transition target to

global EVs producers. In addition, the EU market

only allow the registration of zero-emission

is relatively open and the import duty and otherpassenger

entry barriers are lower in comparison to otherinteresting market for the global EVs producers

markets. However, since Europe is increasingly(Liboreiro 2024, European Commission 2023).

becoming a target of massive Chinese EV exports,

In the past, China did not have an automobile

which are suspected to be partially financed byindustry on its own that had the technology to

subsidies

produce vehicles with ICEs and for decades the

from

the

Chinesegovernment,

thevehicles

by

2035,

the

EU

is

an

European EV producers could be harmed.

country relied on imports by other automobile

According to the European Commission, the EU's

manufacturers (SWD(2024) 91 final). However,green transition cannot be based on unfair

around the year 2000, the start of a new market

imports at the expense of the EU’s automobile

with new energy vehicles (NEV)like BEVs and PHEVs

industry. Therefore, it decided to initiate anchanged this situation since the Chinese BEV

anti-subsidy proceeding against the imports ofmanufacturers

new BEVs originating in China on 4 October 2023.

production (SWD(2024) 91 final). At least since

On 12 June 2024, the Commission informed all

2015, China has become the largest producer ofinterested

Chinese

NEVs in the world and Chinese carmakers accounted

government and companies about its plans tofor a total of 35% of global EV sales. In 2022,

impose a duty on BEVs imported from China. On 4BYD Auto Co., Ltd. reached the highest share of

July 2024, the Commission announced the new,EVs in the global EV market (18%), followed bytemporary countervailing duties on Chinese EVs

the US producer Tesla, which has also production

exported to the European market. Definitive

sites

measures are expected to be decided on by the(SWD(2024) 91 final, IEA 2023).

parties

includingtheinestablished

China,

with

a

their

13%

own

marketEV

share

EU Member States by November 2024.
海外の最新事情・トピック

2024 年7 月号｜JTTRI｜p. 1

Fig. 1: Share of global EV markets by selected

representing a YoY increase of +51%, while PHEVs

carmakers, 2016-2022

saw a +40% YoY rise (European Alternative Fuels
Observatory 2023, Pontes 2023a). In 2022, Tesla
led EV brands with a 9% share, with the Model Y
and Model 3 in first and second place in Europe ,followedbyBMW(8.6%),

Volkswagen(8.4%),

Mercedes-Benz (8.2%), and Audi (5.6%) (European
Alternative

Fuels

Observatory

2023,

Pontes2023a). In 2023, Tesla remained the top EV brand,with a 12.1% share, followed by BMW (8.8%), VW(8.2%), Mercedes-Benz (7.8%), and Audi (5.8%),
with Volvo close behind (5.6%) (Autovista24
2024c, Pontes 2024a). However, the European BEV
and PHEVs market saw a drop of 29% in December
2023 in a YoY comparison, representing the worst
IEA(2023):

GlobalEV

Outlook

2023.

In:

decline in 10 years, mainly caused by a massive

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-

drop of sales in Germany’s market because of2023/corporate-strategy, (License: CC BY 4.0)

the chaotic ending of subsidies for the purchaseof BEVs in December 2023 (Autovista24 2024c).

They were followed by Volkswagen (8%), General

Even in May 2024, the impact was still visible

Motors (6%), Geely-Volvo (6%), Stellantis (5%),

with a total of 226,000 plug-in vehicles being

Hyundai (5%), BMW (4%), Mercedes-Benz (3%) andregistered across Europe, marking a 10% decline

Renault2023,

on a (YoY) basis (Pontes 2024b). In Germany , in

SWD(2024) 91 final). Between 2022 and 2023 China

the first 6 months of 2024, the decrease inbecame, for the first time, an exporter rather

newly registered BEVs continued, with -16.4%

than an importer of automobiles, and it finallycompared to the first half of 2023, while newly

overcameofregistered petrol passenger cars increased bytechnology to produce ICEs vehicles (SWD(2024)91,

7.4% and Diesel passenger cars by 8.9% in the

Pontes 2023b). The Chinese EV manufacturers

first half of 2024 (KBA 2024b). It underlines

could soon become a real game changer also in

the impact of a discontinuation of government

the European EV automobile market, as it seems

incentives on the uptake of EVs, resulting in a

imminent that Chinese EV manufacturers will

steep decline in BEVs sales, due to the chaotic

enter the European market with a great variety

ending of subsidies in December 2023 and anof EV models.

increase of sales of internal-combustion engine

Nissanits

Mitsubishi

disadvantage

(3%)

in

(IEA

the

lack

vehicles (Antolini 2024, Autovista24 2024a,

2. Top selling EVs makers in Europe andChinese EV export ambitions

2024b, KBA 2024a).
In Europe, Tesla’s Model Y continued to be the

In 2022, the EU’s total numbers for BEVs andbest-selling EV, but Volvo EX30, a newcomer from

PHEVs rose above 2.6 million (23%) and BEVs alone

China, already secured the second rank in May

reached a share of 13.45% of newly registered2024,

vehiclesAlternative(Antolini

2023,

Pontes2023a).

In

with

8,262
Fuels

registrations
Observatory(European2024b,

Pontes

December 2022, the European BEV market hit a2024b). In 2023, 19.5% of all EVs sold acrossrecordthe EU were built in China, and in France andwith

275,277

海外の最新事情・トピック

newregistrations,2024 年7 月号｜JTTRI｜p. 2

Spain nearly every third BEV being sold in 2023

2023,

was made in China (T&E 2024). While more thananti-subsidy investigation on these imports ofhalf of Chinese EV imports come from Western

BEVs originating in China (European Commission

carmakers like Tesla, also the Chinese brands

2024a). After an in-depth analysis of recent

like BYD ad MG are quickly catching up from 0.4%

market developments, the European Commissionof the EV market share in 2019 to 7.9% in 2023

confirmed it had sufficient evidence to show

(T&E 2024). In the EU’s biggest passenger carthat BEVs imports from China are benefiting frommarket Germany, BYD reached a market share ofcountervailable

0.6% with a total of 777 units, MG ROEWE reached

Government of the People's Republic of China

4.5%, NIO 0.1%, and Polestar 0.9% of newly(Europeanregistatered passenger cars in the first fivevariousmonths in 2024 (KBA 2024c). In comparison, Tesla

credits and credit lines provided by State-reached 11.9% (KBA 2024c).

owned banks or bonds underwritten by State-

In the mid-term, BYD plans to achieve around 5%

owned banks and other financial institutions at

to 10% of the electric segment in the German

preferential terms, provision of preferential

automobile market and plans to build a production

export insurance; income tax reductions andplant in Hungary to produce EVs for the European

exemptions, dividend tax exemption, import andmarketEV

export tax rebates; VAT exemptions and rebates;

manufacturers are increasing their exports toand government provision of goods (such as raw

Europe (Ecomento 2023, Lesjak 2024).

and input materials as well as components) andthere,

while

other

Chinesethe Commission

formallysubsidies

Commission

grants,initiated

provided2023).

provision

In

of

by

an

the

particular,loans,

exportservices for less than adequate remuneration

3. Possible impacts of the EU’s decision to(European Commission2023). Those subsidies

impose provisional countervailing duty on

have

EV imports from China

rapidly increase their market share in the EU

allowedThe EU’s target of reaching 100% zero emission

to

newly

(Commission

registeredvehicles

by

2035

and

the

the

the

ChinesedetrimentoftheImplementing

manufacturers

EU’s

to

industry

Regulation(EU)

comparatively low entrance barriers and import2024/785, European Commission 2024a, 2023). The

duties of 10% on cars imported from China makes

EU anti-subsidy investigation revealed that thethe EU’s automobile market interesting for

entire BEV value chain is heavily subsidised in

Chinese2024,

China, and that imports of Chinese BEVs presented

European Commission 2023). It is estimated that,a threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent

by 2025, the market share of Chinese EV imports

injurycould

increased2024b). Chinese producers also benefit from low

overcapacity in China (European Commission 2023).

labour and energy costs, easy access to raw

The planned introduction of a countervailingmaterials and a robust ecosystem to churn out

duty on Chinese EV imports could change thebatteries. Additionally, the Chinese economy ismarket dynamics in the EU.

going through a slowdown fuelled by sluggish

Based on World Trade Organization rules, thedomestic demand, which makes companies even more

EU’s trade defence instruments, such as anti-reliant on exports abroad (Liboreiro 2024). The

dumping or anti-subsidy duties, the EU can

Commission’s evidence also shows that Chinese

protect

capacity will still increase significantly in

EV

rise

manufacturers

even

more

Europeaninternational

trade(Liboreiro

becauseofproduction

againstdistortions(EuropeanCommission n.d.). Accordingly, on 4 October
海外の最新事情・トピック

the

to

comingEUindustry

years,(Europeansuggesting

Commission

that

the

overcapacity continues (European Commission 2023,
2024 年7 月号｜JTTRI｜p. 3

2024a). There is also a clear risk that an

against German automobile industry’s activities

increasing number of EU producers will suffer

in China (Liboreiro 2024). In fact, the Germanfrom diminishing sales and reduced production

Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA),

levels if imports continue at the current paceincluding BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen and(Commission

others, warned that the countervailling duty

Implementing

Regulation(EU)

2024/785).

would not be “suitable for strengthening the

The investigation’s provisional findings werecompetitivenessofpublished on 12 June 2024, and the Commission

industry”

thatinformed all interested parties as to whether it

industry would end up being hit hardest in its

plans to impose provisional tariffs (European

most important Chinese market (Oliver 2024,

Commission 2024a, 2024b). The proposed duties

Martin 2024).

would be added on top of the ordinary import duty

Hungary has attracted investments from BYD andof 10% levied on imports of BEVs (European

is therefore considered being in opposition to

Commission 2024b). On 4 July 2024, the Commission

making the duty permanent, while Sweden andpublished the provisional countervailing duties

Ireland have also expressed their reservations

in detail to remove the substantial unfair

against the duty (Liboreiro 2024).

competitive advantage of Chinese BEVs' producers

On the other hand, France, whose automobile

due to the existence of unfair subsidy schemes

manufacturers are less exposed to the Chinese

in China (Commission Implementing Regulation

market, is expected to vote in favour of the(EU) 2024/1866). The provisional countervailingpermanent duties and also Italy and Spain seem

duty on imports of new BEVs originating in thetoPeople’s Republic of China applies as of 5 July

Martin 2024, Oliver 2023). It is still unclear

2024, for a maximum duration of four months

if the majority of EU Member States will support(European

the permanent introduction of countervailing

Commission

2024c,

Commission

support

and

the

the

European

automotive

Germanautomotive

theinitiative(Liboreiro

2024,

Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/1866).

duties,on imports of EVs from China.

Any

The individual duties applying to the threepotential final measures will be in force for 5

sampled Chinese producers are BYD 17.4%; Geely

years, extendable upon substantiated request and19.9%; and SAIC 37.6% (Commission Implementing

subsequent review (European Commission 2024c).

Regulation (EU) 2024/1866)). Other BEV producers
in China, which cooperated in the investigation

4. Conclusion and considerations

but were not sampled, are subject to the 20.8%

While the BEVs will be crucial to achieving theweighted average duty. The duty for other non-EU’s green transition, the EU is an interesting

cooperatingcompanies

market for the global EVs producers because ofCommission

2024b,

is

37.6%

a

the speed of uptake of BEVs. However, strategic

substantiated request, one BEV producer in China

dependencies on unfair imports at the expense of– Tesla – may receive an individually calculatedtheduty rate at the definitive stage (European

prevented. The provisional countervailing duties

Commission

are2024c).

2024c).

(EuropeanIn

Following

November

2024,

the

EU’s

the

automobile

resultofindustry

an

EU

needs

to

be

anti-subsidy

provisional measures will be put to a vote among

investigation, which revealed that the Chinese

EU Member States to make the countervailingentire BEV value chain is heavily subsidized anddutiesthethat imports of Chinese BEVs represent a threat

levies due to the German automobile industry’sof clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EUpressure and fears for retaliation measuresindustry.

permanent.

Germany

海外の最新事情・トピック

might

rejectEuropean

automobile2024 年

manufacturers

7 月号｜JTTRI｜p. 4

could be unable to compete with Chinese producers

Antolini, Andrea (2024): Common – Analysis ofanddecarbonization

could

eventuallybeoustedfromthetransport

happened in the past in case of solar panels.

federal government abolishes subsidies for EV

Since the European automobile industry is apurchase,systemicfactorEuropeanCommission

EU’s

economy,

the

CO2

must

take

measurestopassenger

Europeanthesector

the

major

for

increasingly lucrative market, as it has alreadyininpolicies

causingemissionanlevelscountries:

increaseof

newlyGermanoftheregistered

cars.

In:

leveling the playing field for its domestic

https://www.jttri.or.jp/topic_europe_2024Jun-

automobile

01.pdf, 12 June 2024, accessed 1 July 2024

manufacturers

againststate-

subsidized Chinese EV manufacturers, which are

Automotive News Europe (2023): Tesla launches

pushing into the European market.

new

However, the countervailing duties will not stop

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-

Chinese companies from building factories incuts-prices-germany-france-boost-demand,

Europe as BYD’s example in Hungary shows. BYD

April 2023, accessed 12 September 2023

can also ship EVs from its plant in Turkey toAutovista24 (2024a): EVs make up quarter ofthe European market as cars exported from Turkey

Germanto the EU are exempt from tariffs thanks to thehttps://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/evs

EU’s customs union with Turkey.

-makeup-quarter-of-german-new-car-market-2023/,

Another solution could be to make joint ventures

14 February 2024, accessed 1 July 2024

like

Autovista24

Stellantis agreed

on

with

the

Chinese

round

of

price

new-carcuts

inmarketEurope.

in(2024b):

14

2023.

GermanIn:In:

new-carautomobile manufacturer Leapmotor to sell its

registrations plunged in December as EV bonus

electric vehicles in Europe.

withdrawn

Furthermore, the higher pricing of BEVs in thehttps://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/ger

EU, described as the “EU premium”, allows

man-new-car-registrations-plunged-december-ev-

Chinese EV producers to sell their BEVs in Europe

bonus-withdrawn-early/,

at higher prices than in China, leaving themaccessed 1 July 2024

wider profit margins. Even if the countervailing

Autovista24 (2024c): Record-breaking drop forduties were introduced permanently, they could

Europeanpartially be absorbed by the ample profit margins

https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/rec(Liboreiro

ord-breaking-drop-for-european-ev-market-

2024,

EuropeanCommission2023).

early.

EV05

marketIn:

Januaryin2024,

December.

In:

Consequently, Chinese BEVs manufacturers will

december/, 20 February 2024

find ways to work around the countervailing

BYD (2023): BYD to Build A New Energy Passenger

duties

Vehicleandtherefore,itremains

uncertain

Factoryin

Hungary

whether the introduction of these countervailing

Production

induties will actually have the desired effect.

https://www.byd.com/eu/news-for

Localised

Europe.

In:list/BYD_to_Build_A_New_Energy_Passenger_Vehicl
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海外の最新事情・トピック

2024 年7 月号｜JTTRI｜p. 8