LATIN AMERICA A DVISOR
www.thedialogue.org

A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUEBOARD OF ADVISORSFEATURED Q&A

Diego Arria
Director, Columbus Group

Will Brazil’s Plan
for Peace Talks on
Ukraine Take Root?

Merike Blofield
Director, Institute for Latin American
Studies, GIGA
Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies
Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Paula Cifuentes
Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs,
Latin America & Canada,
Philip Morris International

TODAY’S NEWS

Marlene Fernández
Corporate Vice President for
Government Relations,
Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s)

Craig A. Kelly
Senior Director,
Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil
Barbara Kotschwar
Executive Director, Visa Economic
Empowerment InstituteJohn Maisto
Director, U.S. Education
Finance Group
Nicolás Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos
Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates
Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting LLC
Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American
Economics, Citi
Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA
Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &Asociados
Shelly Shetty
Managing Director, Sovereigns
Fitch Ratings

IACHR Urges
El Salvador to
End State ofEmergency
The Inter-American Commission
on Human Rights on Thursday
called on El Salvador to end its
year-long state of emergency,
which has suspended some constitutional rights in order to crack
down on gangs.

ECONOMIC

Donna Hrinak
Senior VP, Corporate Affairs,
Royal Caribbean GroupJames R. Jones
Chairman,
Monarch Global Strategies

POLITICAL

Page 2

Peter Hakim
President Emeritus,
Inter-American Dialogue

Jon E. HuenemannCouncil Member,
GLG Inc.

Friday, April 7, 2023

Celso Amorim, the Brazilian government’s top foreign policy advisor, met last week in Moscow
with Russian President Vladimir Putin. // File Photo: Brazilian Government.

Q

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed thecreation of a group of countries, potentially including China,
India and Indonesia, in order to mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. China, Turkey and several othercountries have also sought to make diplomatic pushes to end the war in
Ukraine. What role are Brazil and other Latin American countries playing
in the war? How are Lula’s proposals different from those of other countries? What are the reasons behind Lula’s efforts to position Brazil as amediator of the conflict?

A

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president
emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: “Lula is on asensible track. Negotiations offer the best solution to the
Ukraine-Russia war. The alternatives project a bleaker, more
destructive outcome. Russia might win, ending Ukraine’s independence
and humbling the United States and NATO. Like other recent conflicts,
the war could persist for years. A prolonged stalemate or near defeat
could provoke a nuclear response from a Russia in desperation. Could
NATO quickly incorporate and extend protection to Ukraine? That’s not asolution that anyone should count on. Lula is today one of the few international leaders who might have the political muscle and credibility to
manage a serious negotiation of the Ukraine-Russia war. Its success, oreven real progress, although far from guaranteed, would enhance Brazil’s
global stature and influence—which has declined sharply since he left
office in 2010 and makes Lula’s peacemaking more difficult today. The
conflict’s end would also hasten the recovery of Brazil’s weakened econContinued on page 3

COPYRIGHT © 2023, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE

Brazil Offers to
Host Regional
Climate Summit
Brazil on Thursday offered to hosta regional climate change summit
aimed at promoting sustainable
development and protecting the
Amazon rain forest.
Page 3

POLITICAL

Chile’s Boric Signs
Measures to Fight
Rising Crime
Chilean President Gabriel Boricon Thursday signed a packageof laws designed to fight risingcrime. He also allocated $1.5
billion in new security spending.
Page 2

Boric // File Photo: Chilean
Government.

PAGE 1LATIN AMERICA A DVISORPOLITICAL NEWSIACHR Urges
El Salvador to End
State of Emergency
The Inter-American Commission on Human
Rights (IACHR) on Thursday called on the government of El Salvador to end a year-long stateof exception that has suspended constitutionalrights as part of a massive anti-gang campaign, Reuters reported. The IACHR urged President Nayib Bukele and congressional allies
to restore full constitutional guarantees andensure respect for human rights. “IACHR callson the government of El Salvador to restore
the full validity of the rights and guarantees
suspended during the last 12 months within
the framework of the emergency regime,”
the Washington-based organization said in astatement. In March, El Salvador’s Legislative
Assembly for the 12th time approved a onemonth extension of the emergency rules, whichwere first adopted in March 2022, the Associated Press reported. The emergency measures
allow the police to quickly arrest and jailindividuals suspected of being gang members,
suspend the requirement for court approval of
preliminary detention and the individuals’ rightto a lawyer, and allow for extended pre-trial
detention, Reuters reported. More than 66,000
suspected gang members have been jailed
since the measure went into force last year.
The measure is widely popular in El Salvador,
where it is credited with contributing to a drop
in crime, the AP reported. Human rights groups
have criticized the measure and documented
thousands of cases of abuses, many related toarbitrary detention. [Editor’s note: See related
Q&A in the March 28 issue of the Advisor.]

Chile’s Boric Signs
Laws Designed toFight Rising Crime
Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Thursday
signed a package of laws and earmarked $1.5

Friday, April 7, 2023
billion in order to fight rising crime in the SouthAmerican country, Reuters reported. “We faceorganized crime together. Our unity is the mostpowerful weapon against crime,” Boric said insigning the four measures into law. The newmeasures and $1.5 billion in additional security
spending will help to fight organized crimeand drug trafficking, said Boric. The measures
include criminalizing extortion and tougher
penalties for kidnapping and some weapons violations, Reuters reported. One of the new lawsalso increases penalties for crimes committed
against police while also giving officers moreauthorization to use force if their lives or the
lives of others are in danger. Boric’s approvalof the legislation followed the third killing ofan on-duty police officer in less than a month.
Chile’s Congress met in a special session last
week to pass the measures amid a backlashover rising crime, Bloomberg News reported.

NEWS BRIEFSWorld Court Says it
Can Rule on GuyanaVenezuela Border

Colombia Reaches Deal
With Informal Miners for
Talks on Labor Conditions

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) on
Thursday ruled that it can hear a case related
to a long-standing dispute between Guyana
and Venezuela over their shared border, acase with implications for control over natural
resource-rich areas, the Associated Press reported. In a 14-1 decision, the United Nations’highest court, also known as the World Court,
rejected Venezuela’s claim that the court
does not have jurisdiction in the case, Reutersreported. Venezuela had argued that the United
Kingdom should be involved in the case, as it
controlled the then-colonial territory of British
Guiana in 1899 when an international arbitration tribunal delineated a border between
the two countries, the AP reported. Guyana isseeking a ruling upholding that border and hasargued that the United Kingdom should not be
involved as the country gained independence
in 1966. Thursday’s decision paves the way
for the case to move forward, a process thatis expected to take at least several years. Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said in a statement
Thursday that “Guyana remains confident that

COPYRIGHT © 2023, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE

Brazil’s Lula Suggests
Gov’t Might Change
Inflation Target
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on
Thursday suggested the government might adjust its inflation target, Reuters reported. “If theinflation target is wrong, change the target,” thepresident told journalists. Lula has criticized
the hawkish stance of Brazil’s central bankamid its raising of the benchmark interest rate,
which stands at a six-year high of 13.75 percent. Lula has suggested the key rate should belowered to promote economic growth, although
year-on-year inflation exceeds the government’s
inflation target of 3.25 percent by more than
two percentage points.

Colombia’s government on Thursday said
it has reached an agreement with informal
miners to initiate talks on labor conditions andformalizing their operations, Reuters reported.
The agreement brings an end to a month ofprotests that have occasionally led to violence
and roadblocks in two northern provinces. The
government has claimed that the organizedcrime group Clan del Golfo has incited violence
and attacks on security forces, while the latter
have destroyed machinery in an effort to halt
the illegal operators.

Blinken, Chile’s
Van Klaveren Discuss
Renewable Energy
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken andChilean Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren
spoke about “U.S. and Chilean investments inrenewable energy and green hydrogen” during aphone call Thursday, the State Department said
in a statement. Chile wants to become among
the world’s top exporters of green hydrogen by
2040, Bloomberg News reported in February.
PAGE 2

LATIN AMERICA A DVISOR
its longstanding international boundary with
Venezuela will be confirmed by the court,”
the news service reported. Venezuelan Vice
President Delcy Rodríguez reiterated Caracas’
stance that the dispute should be addressedby negotiations outside of court. The disputedarea, Guayana Esequiba, accounts for about 40
percent of the country’s current territory and isalso rich in gold, timber and diamonds, among
other natural resources.

ECONOMIC NEWS

Brazil Offers to Host
Regional ClimateChange Summit
Brazil’s government on Thursday offered tohost a regional climate change summit aimed
at aligning plans to promote sustainable development and protect the Amazon rain forest,
Reuters reported. Brazilian Foreign Minister
Mauro Vieira said the country is aiming tohost a meeting on Aug. 8-9 in the northeastern city of Belém to revitalize the Amazon
Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO), anintergovernmental organization formed by theeight Amazonian countries, and coordinate
with representatives of France and the UnitedStates. Vieira said that the summit will serve asa space for the countries to discuss efforts tofight deforestation, attract investment, protect
Indigenous peoples and promote sustainable
development, with the aim of developing of ashared vision that President Luiz Inácio Lula daSilva could then present before the United Nations General Assembly in September. Lula has
made sustainable development and protecting
the Amazon a cornerstone of his agenda for
his third term. Earlier this year, Brazil formallypresented a bid for Belém, the second-largest
Brazilian city in the Amazon region, to hostthe COP30 summit in 2025, and Lula has also
pledged to halt deforestation by 2030, Agência
Brasil reported. Nevertheless, experts havesaid it will take years to reduce deforestation
and reverse the sharp uptick seen under Lula’s
predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, Reuters reported.

Friday, April 7, 2023
F E A T U R E D Q & A / Continued from page 1

omy and, at the same time, boost economic
prospects worldwide. But pursuing peace is
not without risk for Brazil. Lula’s initial claim(now substantially softened) that Russia andNATO are equally responsible for the war,and his unwillingness to call out Putin for
casting the first stone, puts Brazil’s largely
positive relations with the United States andEurope in some peril. Similarly, any Brazilian
statement of Russian sole culpability could
endanger economic relations with Russia
and perhaps China, both vital trading partners for Brazil. Lula’s intentions in seeking anegotiated peace are laudable. However, he
may have jumped too quickly into a complex,
dangerous situation. He needs to backtrack
and gain a far better reading of how the key
players—including the United States, China,
Ukraine, Russia and European nations—are
thinking about the war and possible peace
initiatives and compromises. The recent
Moscow visit of his key foreign policy advisor, Celso Amorim, may be an important stepin that direction, but it must be followed bymany others.”A

Patrick Duddy, senior advisor
for global affairs at Duke University, former U.S. ambassador
to Venezuela and former U.S.
consul general in São Paulo: “President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva’s proposal to establish
a peace club to broker an end to hostilities
between Russia and Ukraine arises fromboth his international ambitions and Brazil’s
interests. His efforts to end the fighting are
unlikely to succeed in the near term. Lulaseeks to re-establish Brazil’s leadership rolein the Global South, and ending the war isimportant to the Global South. The war in
Ukraine has precipitated rising prices forfoodstuffs and energy as well as spot shortages of fertilizer, which affect the ability ofother producers, including even Brazil, tocompensate for falling agricultural exports
from the combatants. Lula’s peace overtureis less explicitly prescriptive than the plan
China offered in February, but Ukraine and

COPYRIGHT © 2023, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE

Russia are no more likely to embrace it.
There are several reasons. While Brazil voted
for the most recent U.N. resolution ‘deploring’ Russia’s invasion, Lula has argued in thepast that Zelensky and Ukraine also bear
responsibility for the conflict. Even more
problematically, Brazil’s suggested peaceclub collaborators are BRICS countries (plus
Indonesia) and thus, essentially, partners
with Russia although not active supportersof Russia’s military operations. The U.N.
resolution, which Brazil supported, expressly
called for Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian
territory. China’s peace plan did not. Russian
withdrawal from Ukrainian territory is likely
to be a non-negotiable condition for Zelensky—at least as long as Ukraine believes it iswinning on the battlefield. For Putin, however, withdrawal to pre-2022 borders would besynonymous with defeat.”A

Amanda Mattingly, managing director at ACM Global
Intelligence: “Just as Brazilian
President Lula da Silva hassought a global leadership role on climate
issues, he is also trying to influence geopolitics through his proposal for peace talks
to end the war in Ukraine. Even in his firstterm as president, Lula wanted a larger rolefor himself and Brazil on the world stage.
Now that he is back in office after a period
of isolation for Brazil under his predecessor
Jair Bolsonaro, Lula is promoting the ideaof a ‘peace club’ to resolve the conflict in
Ukraine. In contrast to the United States,
which has armed Ukraine, Lula is actively
pushing for a mediated peace settlement. To
that end, Lula recently sent his top foreign
policy advisor, Celso Amorim, to Moscow tomeet with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
and he is scheduled to meet with Chinese
President Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 14.
Like other Latin American countries, Brazil
has tried to maintain neutrality in the conflictgiven the important trade relationship it haswith both Russia and China as well as its
ties to the West, namely the United States.
Continued on page 4

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LATIN AMERICA A DVISOR

Friday, April 7, 2023

LATIN AMERICA ADVISORF E A T U R E D Q & A / Continued from page 3

But Lula’s recent efforts to meet with world
leaders, including U.S. President Biden, andhis proposals for peace in Ukraine havethrust him into the global spotlight in a waythat is different from other Latin American
leaders and comes with risk as it is unlikelythat his ‘peace club’ proposal will gain muchtraction. Instead of demonstrating that
‘Brazil is back,’ Lula runs the risk of lookingnaïve and lacking influence in the face ofgeopolitical realities.”A

Riordan Roett, professor anddirector emeritus of the Latin
American Studies program at
the Johns Hopkins University’s
School of Advanced International Studies:“President Lula is attempting to restore thenonaligned position that Brazil occupied
during his previous two terms in office.
The visit of former Foreign Minister Celso
Amorim to Moscow and comments by Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira indicate a return
to multilateral diplomacy after the deeply
ideological foreign policy of Jair Bolsonaro
during his one term in office. Russia is an
important trading partner—generous supplies of fertilizer are critical to the successof Brazil’s agribusiness sector. China is
now Brazil’s largest trading partner with aninsatiable appetite for commodities suchas soybeans and iron ore. But a nonaligned
position was feasible in the eight years Lulaoccupied the presidency; the world has now
become dramatically polarized after theRussian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration has noted the efforts by Brazil
to play a ‘mediating role’ in the conflict, but
the war in Ukraine has become deeply bipolar between the United States and NATO andthe Kremlin. But the White House has madeit clear that Brazil needs allies to support its
war against Russia. Soothing bromides will
be met with indifference in the West and initiatives by the Global South will be acknowl-

edged as useful but of no consequence inpursuing the defeat of Russia in Ukraine.”

A

Gilberto M. A. Rodrigues, associate professor at the Federal
University of ABC and researcher at the National Council for
Scientific and Technological Development:“Since the beginning of his new government,
President Lula has repositioned Brazilian
foreign policy at a very high level as an
influential player in international politics.
The decision to remain nonaligned on the
war in Ukraine serves a double interest: notbreaking its strategic relations with the two
power blocs in the dispute, while trying toreinforce the country’s position as one that
can act as a trustworthy facilitator for apeace process. Supported by its condition
as a rotating member of the U.N. Security
Council, Brazil is today the representative of
the Latin American region in the best condition to play this role. The group of ‘friendsof peace’ proposed by President Lula may
contribute to increase the legitimacy of theinitiative and its regional diversity and dilutethe pressures that the two blocs exert on theothers to be more aligned to their positions.
Any effective and sustainable peace process
requires the involvement of China, as Russia’s main interlocutor and central guaranteeof what could be a peaceful end to the war
and the conformation of a new post-conflictinternational order. In this sense the movements of the Brazilian diplomacy—the quiet
visit of Lula advisor Celso Amorim to Russia,
and the coming high-level visit of Lula to
China at the conclusion of his 100 days in
office—strengthen Brazil’s place at the tableof global interlocutors who will contribute toan outcome of the conflict.”
The Advisor welcomes comments on its
Q&A section. Readers can write editor Gene
Kuleta.

COPYRIGHT © 2023, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE

is published every business day by theInter-American Dialogue ISSN 2163-7962
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