Reconnecting WorldDevelopment to Planet Earth
Implementing the 2030 Agenda For Sustainable
Development

UNU 40th Anniversary Celebration
Keynote presentation
6th November, UNU HQ, Japan

Prof. Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Photo Mattias Klum

4 3 - 6 - 9 10
2Photos: Mattias Klum

GREAT ACCELERATION

CO2 concentration
Biodiversity loss
Land degradation
Water use
O3 depletion
...

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

From a small world on a large planet …

To a large world on a small planet …

The Holocene
Our EdenHumanity’s 10,000 years of grace-Earth Tipping Points

Global Temperature Since last Ice Age

Adapted by Stefan Rahmstorf

Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail

Schellnhuber et al., under review.

Looming Risks: Tipping Elements in the Earth System
Arctic Sea Ice

Greenland
Ice Sheet

BorealForestBorealForest
SW NorthAmerica?

Atlantic
Thermohaline
Circulation

MethaneClathrates
El NiñoSouthern Oscillation

YedomaPermafrost

AmazonRainforest

Sahara Greening?
Dust Source Sahel Drying?
Shut-down?
West AfricanMonsoon

MethaneClathrates

IndianSummerMonsoonTropicalCoral Reefs

Marine Biological
Carbon Pump?

West Antarctic
Ice Sheet

Cryosphere Entities
Circulation Patterns
Biosphere Components

East AntarcticGlaciers?

Population Density [persons per km²]

PIK, after Lenton et al. 2008

Water related Tipping Elements in the Earth system

Anthropocene+Tipping Points+Holocene=Planetary Boundaries

Planetary Boundaries

Defining Planetary Boundaries 1.0”The Big Three””The Slow Variables””Earth Aliens”

Planetary Boundaries
A safe operating space for humanity

Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015

Transgressing
theClimate Boundary

No slow-down in globalwarming, rather speed-up

2 ºC > 66%  1000 GtC
Non-CO2 forcing(RCP2.6)  800 GtC
Used ~560 GtC 2014
Gives ~240 GtC left
 890 Gt CO2

35 Gt CO2 /yr…
27 years remaining…
IPCC AR5 WGI 2013

Transgressing
theBiosphere Integrity
Boundary

A living biospere on a Sustainable Planet
Basis for human wellbeing

”Arguably the most serious aspect ofthe environmental crisis is the loss ofbiodiversity – the other living things
with which we share Earth34

Photo: Mattias Klum

SST from the COBE-SST Dataset
Japan Meteorological Agency

Ecosystem Oceangraphy Lab
University of South Carolina
Ryan Rykaczewski

SST from the COBE-SST Dataset
Japan Meteorological Agency

Ecosystem Oceangraphy Lab
University of South Carolina
Ryan Rykaczewski

El Nino hitting S-E Asia, causing worst everForest Fires, according to NASA.
Environmental Disaster as smoke blankets six countries
Equivalent to > 600
Million tons
CO2eq
Or > Germany
Annual Emissions

Becoming
Planetary Stewards

38Pre-industrial
Preindustrial

1950

1950

1970

1970

1990

1990

Current
Current

Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC)
365 (335-395)

OCEANSATMOSPHERE

155 (125-185)
TERRESTRIALECOSYSTEMS
545 (230-250)
240 (230-250)

180 (100-260)

150 (60-240)

Functions and status of earth’s biomes that regulate
planetary resilience

Photos: World Wildlife Fund, breakingenergy.com, saguidedtours.com,
Sierra Club Pennsylvania, Projectaware.com, Duncan Greene/Wired UK.

The polar regions regulate
global temperature, regional
climate systems and ocean
circulation. Melting fasterthan anticipated.

The world’s temperate organicsystems (such as permafrost)
act as carbon & methane sinks
and generate oxygen. Fasterthan anticipated thawing ofpermafrost & methane release

The World’s rainforests act
as carbon sinks, provide
moisture feedback, arebanks for genetic diversity
and generate oxygen. In
rapid decline but the rate
has declined somewhat.

Temperate forests act as carbon
sinks, regulate rainfall patterns& generate oxygen. Relatively
stable but concern over rate of
deforestation in Russia andsevere warming impacts ondisease.

The ocean’s marine systems
act as a heat conveyer,carbon sink, a bank forgenetic diversity andgenerates oxygen. In rapid
declineTropical savannah systems playa role in moisture feedback ,regional rainfall patterns andact as carbon sinks. They
remain relatively stable.

A new direction: People and Planet
Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals

Universal SDGs for People and Planet

Security

Sustainability

DevelopmentInnovation

Sustainable Development Goals
for People and Planet7 PRINCIPLES OF RESILIENCE THINKING
Maintain diversity & redundancy

Manage connectivity
Manage slow variables and feedbacks
Foster complex adaptive systems thinking
Encourage learning
Broaden participation

Promote polycentric governance systems

The Earth Statement
8 Essential Elements for a Successful Paris DealOf the OECD countries theNordics are in best position toachieve the SDGs

Preserving the Remaining Beauty on EarthGrowth Without Limits

Limits to Growth

Growth within LimitsThriving within Planetary Boundaries