GEOSS Joint Asia-Africa Water Cycle Symposium
Ito International Research Center. Ito Hall, University of Tokyo,
Hongo Campus, 25-27 November 2013.

Kusuma, MSB, et.al. Water Res Eng, FCEE, ITB

Recent Activities
Indonesia is an archipelago country which consist of 17 000 tropical island where some of them arevulnerable to flood and drought due to both land use change and climate change impact
Types of Activities : Research for improving capacity in assessing the flood and drought.
 Community services for disseminating and implementing research results.
 Education for improving the curricula and academic atmosphere.

Partner : Government : Central (Related Ministry eg Public Work, Environment, BAPPENAS) and Local Government (Province/Regency)
 River/Reservoir Authority, BNPB (National Board of Disaster Management) and BMKG (Meteorological, Climatological andGeophysical Agency)
 State own company

 Non Government (National and International) : Universities, Research Institution and Association
 NGO and Private

Focus activity : Selected Case Study : based on resources availability and priority
 2011-2013 : Citarum River Basin is one of the priority

Source : Google map2

Policy and ImplementationGovernmentAnomaly in Current Climate Condition
 Flood in dry season period occurred in some areas
 Drought during the wetr season
 In November 2007, the Indonesian Government published theNational Action Plan on Climate Change (RAN-PI), which contains
initial guidance for a multi-sectoral coordination effort designed toaddress jointly the challenges of mitigation and adaptation to climatechange In December 2007, Bappenas (the National Development PlanningAgency) published a document titled "National Development
Planning: Indonesian Responses to Climate Change1”. The
document is intended to strengthen and reinforce the RPJMN(National Medium-Term Development Plan) 2010-2014
 Starting the effort with simple method and then improving for furtherassessment
3Flood and Droughtin Citarum River Basin
2013
Flood Index (Citarum Atlas, 2012)

Drought Risk (Citarum Atlas, 2012)4

Current Event in 2012
Related Research and Academic Activities
Research under The Program of Acceleration and Expansion
Indonesia Economic Development (MP3EI) 2011-2025:“Preparedness Efforts in Flood Control for Climate Change Adaptationin The Upper Citarum River Basin, West Java, Indonesia”

Flood in Baleendah subdistrict, Bandung district 2010

Flood in Andir Village, Bandung district 2010

Flooded alleyway between houses, Bandung district 2010

Mud in front of kelurahan office after flood in Dayeuh Kolot
subdistrict, Bandung district 20105

Current Event in 2012
Water Scarcity

Jatiluhur, Citarum River, WestJava

Upper part of Citarum River, West Java
6

Recent Activities
2013
Citarum River Basin is one of the strategic Basins in West Java, Indonesia. Citarum Riverflows from the mountainous area in Bandung, through the three cascade dams: Saguling,
Cirata, and Jatiluhur, before finally flows to Java Sea.

Upper Citarum River Basin is a plateau area surrounded by mountain range which forms abasin which flows into Saguling Dam.

During rainy season, flood disaster often occurs around the Citarum River which flows
through Bandung Regency. Nevertheless, lack of water supply from Upper Citarum River
Basin during dry season might disturb water supply for irrigation area in Karawang andIndramayu.
Climate Change Mitigation which in Indonesia mainly associated with flood in wet season anddrought in dry season has to deals with common problems, for example:
1) lack of hydrological data;2) high discrepancy in hydrology/drainage computation result using the common computation
method;3) unreliable design of drainage facilities, etc.

This study emphasizes the importance of solving those kinds of problems for Climate Change
Mitigation in the future, especially in Citarum River Basin

7

Recent Activities
2013

Current Condition:
Rainfall runoff characteristic inCitarum
River
Basin
Monthly rainfall seems to have a strong
correlation with monthly discharge whichindicates the typical of runoff in developedarea with high variation between wet anddry season and relatively low base flow8Recent Activities
2013

Average rainfall anddischarge during wet
season tends to increase,
while the average ofrainfall and dischargeduring dry season tends todecrease.

9Recent Activities
2013

Hydrological data availability
Analysis from 376 rainfall stations in Citarum
River Basin from different data sources for theperiod of 1980-2008 shows that:
1)Only 26 stations (6.9% of the total rainfallstations) consist of very good data record withdata availability more than 90%;2)142 stations (37.8% of the total rainfallstations) consist of relatively good data
records with data availability more 70%;3)3) 192 stations (51.2% of the total rainfallstations) consist of data records with data
availability less than 50%.
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Country Report
Related Research and Academic Activities

Flood in Upper Part of Citarum River

Hydrological characteristics of the Citarum watershed
are categorized into the northern and southern parts
with time variability and different concentrations ofrainfall.

In the upstream of the Citarum River, the main river
flow is affected by the thirteen tributaries. Thesetributaries are believed to affect the flooding scale ofthe flood plain.
CikapundungCikeruh

Citarik

Cisangku
yFloodprone in
the UpperCitarum
Watershed

Upper Citarum River Basin
Upper Citarum

11Country Report
Related Research and Academic Activities

Flood in Upper Part of Citarum RiverThis zone, nowadays, has rapidly changed into a densely populated area of Bandung.
The conversion of natural areas into an urban region has led to flooding in the area. This
flooding problem has been the research subject of experts in water resources
engineering in order to find solutions.
Data analysis of conversion of land cover shows that there are changes in land cover inthe Upper Citarum River Basin especially in the growing residential areas.

Upper Citarum River Basinland cover 2001

Upper Citarum River Basinland cover 201012

Country Report
Related Research and Academic Activities

Flood in Upper Part of Citarum RiverThis figure is trend of daily discharge in outlet of Upper Citarum River Basin in Sta.
Nanjung .

This trend is between discharge in 2001 and discharge in 2010

It shown that in 2010 increased discharge (shown in red line)

13

Country Report
Related Research and Academic Activities

Flood in Upper Part of Citarum RiverThis figure is flood hydrograph of subwatersheds in Ipper Citarum River in 2001 and2010

It is flood hydrograph with maximum rainfall in each subwatershed. They are Upper
Citarum subwatershed, Citarik, Cikeruh, Cisangkuy and Cikapundungsubwatershed

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Recent Activities
2013

Flood Discharge of Each Tributary Based On Observation Data 2007 s/d
2011

Contribution in Wet Season(October – April)Contribution in Dry Season (May– September)
Potensial Contributor :Cisangkuy
dnd Ciwidey
15

Drought Study in Citarum River16

Recent Activities
2013

Drought in Citarum RiverResearch Objectives Identify the 1980-2009 Citarum River Basin drought Spatial drought indices based on simple/common

method : Standardized Precipitation Index

Study site
Lower Citarum•••••••••

Longitude: 106 °51'36 "- 107 °51 'E
Latitude: 7 °19 ‘ - 6 °24' LSRiver length: 297 km
largearea: 6.614 km ²
Average discharge: 48 billion m3/year
The average temperature ranges from
17.4 to 30.7 °C
precipitation ranges from 1000-6000 mm
Consist of 3 DAM ; Saguling (982 millionm3), Cirata (2,165 million m3) and Juanda
Reservoir (3,000 million m3)consists of 2,745 rivers

Middle Citarum

Upper Citarum

Citarum River Basin,West Java. Indonesia

Recent Activities
2013•

Meteorological Drought– Measured in terms of the degreeof dryness (intensity) and theduration of the dry period– Region Specific•

Agricultural Drought– Meteorological drought that
impacts agriculture– Usually the first economic sector
to be hit
– Precipitation shortages, ET, soil
moisture, etc…
– Plant water demand versus
available soil moisture

Influence of precipitation deficiency and other factors ondrought development (National Drought Mitigation Center)Recent Activities
2013

Drought Monitoring Curent Criteria Drought intensity which based on themeteorological definition are :• Dry: if the rainfall is between 70% - 85% of normal condition(rainfall is below normal condition)• very dry: if the rainfall is between 50% - 70% of normal condition(rainfall is far below normal condition)• Extremely dry : if the rainfall is < 50% of normal condition(rainfall is very far below normal condition)
 Choosing appropriate drought index:• Basic/common and usefull drought information for agriculture,domestic)• Simple and applicable based on the existing data availability• SPI Drought Index

Recent Activities
2013

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)?


A statistical method for assessing rainfall
The understanding that a deficit of precipitation has different impact on
groundwater, reservoir storage, soil moisture, snowpack and streamflow led todevelopment of SPI (Mckee, Doesken and Kleist, 1993)*
Most common drought monitoring index
It is designed to quantify the precipitation deficit for multiple time scales such as1,3,6,9,12,24 months
The SPI is a dimensionless index where negative values indicate drought, but
positive values show wet conditions.

Table 1. Classification of SPI Value Scale(Source ; BMKG)SPI ValueCategory≥ 2.00
1.50 ~ 1.99
1.00 ~ 1.49
-0.99 ~ 0.99
-1.00 ~ -1.49-1.50 ~ -1.99≥ -2.00

Very wet
Wet
Moderately wet
NormalModerate Drought
Drought
Extremely Drought

The Calculation of SPIWet

NormalSimulated with long time period used 30 years or moreThom (1966) -> Gamma distribution fits precipitationsums wellDrySPI procedure:
1.Parameter estimation for Gamma distribution (based on leastsquare method) frequency distribution of precipitation sums forstation
2.Parameters of Gamma distribution are determined for eachstation and time scale of interest (1 month, 2 months, ...)
3.Thom (1966) determined parameters based on maximum
likelihood method:

Where ;

n = Summary of Rainfall data Estimated parameters are then used for calculating cumulative
probability distribution for a specific precipitation event, which
has been observed on a defined time scale (e.g. month): Gamma function is not defined at x=0 (but there is large
number of no rainfall occurences as we move to shorter timescales); cumulative distribution is therefore modified to include
these events:

where q is the probability of no rainfall on specified time scale

Transformtion of cumulative probability distribution H(x)into standardized normal distribution (Abramowitz inStegun, 1965)

Where :

Where :

And:

c0 = 2,515517
c1 = 0,802853
c2 = 0,010328
d1 = 1,432788
d2 = 0,189269
d3 = 0,001308

Recent Activities
2013Spatial Distribution of Precipitation

Recent Activities
2013

Average Precipitation in Citarum River
Basin
1980 - 2009

Recent Activities
2013
February

September

1997

1997

• SPI : -1.5 to -2•Moderate - Severedrought .

•SPI i ≥ -2
•Extremely drought for
all areas•September is recorded
as the worst drought.
<VALUE>-3,474930048-3,474930047 - -3
-2,999999999 - -2
-1,999999999 - -1
-0,999999999 - 0
0-1
1,000000001 - 2
2,000000001 - 3

2007

2007

Normal - moderatelywet.

Partially droughtLess drought than thatof Wet season in 1997Recent Activities
2013

Policy and Implementation
Current and Future short and medium term program Continuing Citarum Study and other climate change
related on going Program Further step of new undergraduate program
International network/cooperation for education program Improving proposed curricullae
 Fist year of undergraduate running program 2014.
 Following up potential cooperation.

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Recent Activities
2013

Thank You30