Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

20 U.S. Caribbean
Federal Coordinating Lead Author
William A. Gould
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
Chapter Lead
Ernesto L. Díaz
Department of Natural and Environmental
Resources, Coastal Zone Management Program
Chapter Authors
Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
Felix Aponte-González
Aponte, Aponte & Asociados

Eva Holupchinski
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
James P. Kossin
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Amanda J. Leinberger
Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions,
University of Arizona
Vanessa I. Marrero-Santiago
Department of Natural and Environmental Resources,
Coastal Zone Management Program
Odalys Martínez-Sánchez
NOAA National Weather Service

Wayne Archibald
Archibald Energy Group

Kathleen McGinley
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry

Jared Heath Bowden
Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina
State University

Melissa Meléndez Oyola
University of New Hampshire

Lisamarie Carrubba
NOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources
Wanda Crespo
Estudios Técnicos, Inc.
Stephen Joshua Fain
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
Grizelle González
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
Annmarie Goulbourne
Environmental Solutions Limited
Eric Harmsen
Department of Agricultural and Biosystems
Engineering, University of Puerto Rico
Azad Henareh Khalyani
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado
State University

Pablo Méndez-Lázaro
University of Puerto Rico
Julio Morell
University of Puerto Rico
Isabel K. Parés-Ramos
USDA Forest Service International Institute ofTropical Forestry
Roger Pulwarty
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
William V. Sweet
NOAA National Ocean Service
Adam Terando
U.S. Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation
Science Center
Sigfredo Torres-González
U.S. Geological Survey (Retired)
Review Editor
Jess K. Zimmerman
University of Puerto Rico

Technical Contributors are listed at the end of the chapter.

Recommended Citation for Chapter
Gould, W.A., E.L. Díaz, (co-leads), N.L. Álvarez-Berríos, F. Aponte-González, W. Archibald, J.H. Bowden, L. Carrubba, W. Crespo, S.J. Fain, G. González, A. Goulbourne, E. Harmsen, E. Holupchinski, A.H. Khalyani, J. Kossin,
A.J. Leinberger, V.I. Marrero-Santiago, O. Martínez-Sánchez, K. McGinley, P. Méndez-Lázaro, J. Morell, M.M.
Oyola, I.K. Parés-Ramos, R. Pulwarty, W.V. Sweet, A. Terando, and S. Torres-González, 2018: U.S. Caribbean. In
Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller,
D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global
Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 809–871. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH20
On the Web: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/caribbean

Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

20 U.S. Caribbean

Key Message 1

San Juan, Puerto Rico

Freshwater
Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon
emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the
century, constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which canincrease freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity. Saltwater
intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwaterin coastal aquifers. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures
will likely alter the distribution of ecological life zones and exacerbate existing problems
in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.

Key Message 2
Marine Resources
Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial andrecreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes
in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in thefrequency and intensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats
can result in changes in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the lossof live coral cover, sponges, and other key species. These changes will likely disrupt
valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island
economies.

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Key Message 3
Coastal Systems
Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate
island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property,
cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger
wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal
erosion, likely leading to diminished beach area, loss of storm surge barriers, decreased
tourism, and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being. Adaptive planning andnature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional
knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.

Key Message 4
Rising Temperatures
Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve andoperate. Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects
on organisms and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a varietyof impacts. Continued increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases
in agricultural productivity, changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks
to human health, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum
temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer cool nights and more frequent hot
days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S. Caribbean.

Key Message 5
Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events
Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean,
and some extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increasein frequency and intensity. Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates
will likely affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation,
and agricultural productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration andintegrated planning, preparation, and responses across the region.

Key Message 6
Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration
Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional
adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss oflife, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean.
Increased regional cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand
the region’s collective ability to achieve effective actions that build climate change
resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme events, and assist in recovery efforts.

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Executive Summary
Historically, the U.S.
Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns,
moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and avariety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, theCaribbean climate is changing and is projected to
be increasingly variable as levels of greenhousegases in the atmosphere increase.

plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise,storm surge, and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation
zone for sea level rise include the power plants on
both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing
communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie,
Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines forwater and sewage.
Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall,a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased
risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, andsocioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from somelocations within the Caribbean experiencing
longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wetseasons in the future. 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood.9,10
Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction
practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, canexacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects
on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats.

The high percentage of coastal area relative to thetotal island land area in the U.S. Caribbean meansthat a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable tosea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall eventsand associated coastal flooding, and saltwater
intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity torisk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded
by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in partto the high costs of mitigation and adaptation
measures relative to the region’s gross domestic
product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas.1 The limited geographic andeconomic scale of Caribbean islands means that
disruptions from extreme climate-related events,
such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastatelarge portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services.1

Ocean warming poses a significant threat to thesurvival of corals and will likely also cause shifts
in associated habitats that compose the coral
reef ecosystem. Severe, repeated, or prolonged
periods of high temperatures leading to extended
coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean
acidification also is likely to diminish the structural
integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major
shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to thestructure and composition of marine habitats
adversely affect food security, shoreline protection,and economies throughout the Caribbean.

The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Ricoand the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct
differences in topography, language, population
size, governance, natural and human resources,and economic capacity. However, both are highly
dependent on natural and built coastal assets;
service-related industries account for more than
60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected bysea level rise and erosion, are among the main
tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines
and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pumpstations, wastewater treatment plants, and power

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In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days withtemperatures above 90°F has increased overthe last four and a half decades. During that
period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which
are influenced by such elevated temperatures,

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became the primary causes of death.11,12 Increases
in average temperature and in extreme heat
events will likely have detrimental effects on
agricultural operations throughout the U.S.
Caribbean region.13,14 Many farmers in the tropics,
including the U.S. Caribbean, are consideredsmall-holding, limited resource farmers and often
lack the resources and/or capital to adapt tochanging conditions. 15

Most Caribbean countries and territories share
the need to assess risks, enable actions acrossscales, and assess changes in ecosystems to
inform decision-making on habitat protection
under a changing climate.16,17 U.S. Caribbean
islands have the potential to improve adaptationand mitigation actions by fostering stronger
collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on
climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise(top) Observed sea level rise trends in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands reflect an increase in sea level of about 0.08 inches (2.0mm) per year for the period 1962–2017 for Puerto Rico and for 1975–2017 for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The bottom panels show a closer
look at more recent trends from 2000 to 2017 that measure a rise in sea level of about 0.24 inches (6.0 mm) per year. Projections of sea
level rise are shown under three different scenarios of Intermediate-Low (1–2 feet), Intermediate (3–4 feet), and Extreme (9–11 feet)sea level rise. The scenarios depict the range of future sea level rise based on factors such as global greenhouse gas emissions andthe loss of glaciers and ice sheets. From Figure 20.6. (Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC).
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Climate Risk Management Organizations

Some of the organizations working on climate risk assessment and management in the Caribbean are shown. Joint regional efforts toaddress climate challenges include the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce natural, social, and economic vulnerabilities,
as well as actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. See the online version of this figure at http://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
chapter/20#fig-20-18 for more details. From Figure 20.18 (Sources: NOAA and the USDA Caribbean Climate Hub).

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Backgroundpopulation of 3.4 million), along with the inhabited territorial islands of St. Croix, St. Thomas,
St. John, and Water Island (with a combined
population of 104,000). In addition to the principal islands, the U.S. Caribbean includes over
800 smaller islands and cays, diverse culturaland historical resources, and a rich matrix ofmarine and terrestrial ecosystems. The region’s
physical geography includes nearshore andopen ocean marine areas; coastal wetlands,
hills, and plains; limestone (or karst) hills; andinterior mountains. Average rainfall amounts
vary widely across the region, and social andecological systems are diverse. Puerto Ricoand the USVI share many vulnerabilities withcoastal states and the Pacific Islands but lackmuch of the capacity available to the continental United States.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI)
are rich in biodiversity, cultural heritage,and natural resources. More than 3.5 million
inhabitants depend on the region’s natural
resources and environmental services fortheir well-being, livelihoods, local economies,
and cultural identities. Changing climate andweather patterns interacting with humanactivities, are affecting land use, air quality, andresource management and are posing growing
risks to food security, the economy, culture,and ecosystems services.
The U.S. Caribbean (Figure 20.1) includes the
inhabited commonwealth islands of Puerto
Rico, Vieques, and Culebra (with a combined

Shared Vulnerabilities of U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands
The U.S. Caribbean islands face many of the same climate change related challenges as Hawai‘i and the
U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands), including•

isolation and dependence on imports, making islands more vulnerable to climate-related impacts;•

critical dependence on local sources of freshwater (Ch. 27, KM 1);•

temperature increases that will further reduce supply and increase demand on freshwater (Ch. 27, KM 1);•

vulnerability to drought in ways that differ from mainland regions (Ch. 27, KM 1);•

a projected significant decrease in rainfall in all (Caribbean) or parts (Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands) of theseregions (Ch. 27, KM 1);•

sea level rise, coastal erosion, and increasing storm impacts that threaten lives, critical infrastructure, andlivelihoods on islands (Ch. 27, KM 2–4);•

prominent concerns about the economic consequences of coastal threats (Ch. 27, KM 3);•

coral bleaching and mortality due to warming ocean surface waters and ocean acidification(Ch. 27, KM 4); and•threats to critical economic marine resources, including fisheries (Ch. 27, KM 4).

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U.S. Caribbean Region

Figure 20.1: The U.S. Caribbean includes the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The
region includes seven inhabited islands and nearly 800 smaller islands and cays.

The islands also have unique issues related to data
availability and the capacity to develop datasetscomparable to those available for the continental
United States. For example, the small size ofthe islands, particularly the USVI, affects theavailability and accuracy of downscaled climate
data and projections, similar to the Pacific Islands(Ch. 27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands). Additionally,
differences in the natural and social systems,
and in information availability for Puerto Ricoand the USVI, affect the degree of vulnerability
to climate change and extreme climate events.
This is reflected in different needs, priorities, andapproaches to reducing vulnerability between
Puerto Rico and the USVI. Historically, the U.S.

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Caribbean region has experienced relatively
stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderateannual temperature fluctuations, and a variety
of extreme weather events, such as tropicalstorms, hurricanes, and drought. However, thesepatterns are changing and are projected to be
increasingly variable as atmospheric greenhousegas concentrations increase. Having evolved
with these historic climate conditions, and given
the small size and relatively isolated nature ofthese islands, Caribbean social, economic, andecological systems are likely to be more sensitive
to changes in temperature and precipitation thansimilar systems in the mainland United States(Figure 20.2).18,19

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Climate Indicators and Impacts

Figure 20.2: (top) Key indicators for monitoring climate variability and change in the U.S. Caribbean include sea level rise,ocean temperature and acidity, air temperature, rainfall patterns, frequency of extreme events, and changes in wildlife habitats.
(bottom) Changes in these climate indicators result in environmental and social impacts to natural ecosystems, infrastructure,and society, including degradation of coral and marine habitats, increased coastal flooding and erosion, decrease in agricultural
productivity, water supply shortages, negative effects on communities’ livelihoods and on human health, as well as economic
challenges and decreased tourism appeal. Source: Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.
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The vulnerability of the U.S. Caribbean region
is influenced by global, regional, and local
factors. The region is sensitive to large-scalepatterns of natural variability in both the
Atlantic and Pacific tropical basins, such as the
El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation.20 Climate variations
due to these large-scale patterns directly
impact the U.S. Caribbean because the islands
largely rely on surface waters and consistentannual rainfall to meet freshwater demands.
The high percentage of coastal areas relative
to the total island land area means that a large
proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable tosea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall
events and associated coastal flooding, andsaltwater intrusion. As on islands worldwide,
there are strong socioeconomic and cultural
ties to diminishing marine resources andservices, as well as economic dependence
on tourism and imported goods.1,13,14,21 Highlevels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in
the region are compounded by a low levelof adaptive capacity, due in part to the highcosts of mitigation and adaptation measuresrelative to the region’s gross domestic product,
particularly when compared to continental U.S.
coastal areas.1

temperate crops and are often detrimentallyaffected by relatively small shifts in temperature, humidity, and rainfall.13,23,24 The limited
geographic and economic scale of Caribbean
islands means that disruptions from extreme
climate-related events, such as droughts andhurricanes, can devastate large portions oflocal economies and cause widespread damage
to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, andother critical resources and services.1,25

Observed and Projected Climate Change

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)26
provides an in-depth assessment of observed
and projected climate change in the continental United States. Because this level of assessment was not available for the U.S. Caribbean
region, this section provides a brief overview ofobserved trends and future projections of fiveclimate variables that are relevant to assessing
climate change risk in the region: temperature,
precipitation, sea surface temperature, ocean
acidification, and sea level rise.
Temperature. Annual average temperaturesin the U.S. Caribbean have fluctuated over thelast century. However, since 1950, temperatures have increased by about 1.5°F in PuertoRico.27 Projected increases under both a lowerand higher scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)
are expected in both average and extreme
temperatures, which will lead to more days per
year over 95°F and more nights per year over
85°F.28 Global climate models project about a
1.5°F to 4°F increase in average temperatures
for the U.S. Caribbean by 2050. End-of-century
estimates show temperature increases as highas about 9°F under a higher scenario (RCP8.5;
Figure 20.3).7

The people of the U.S. Caribbean rely heavily on imported food and other goods andservices, leaving them critically exposed toclimate-related disruptions in transportation
systems as well as vulnerabilities associatedwith source geographies.22 Crop species key toregional economies and food security—suchas coffee, plantains, and mangoes—have
evolved in narrower climatic niches relative to

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Observed and Projected Temperature Change for Puerto Rico

Figure 20.3: Observed and projected temperature changes are shown as compared to the 1951–1980 average. Observed
data are for 1950–2017, and the range of model simulations for the historical period is for 1950–2005. The range of projected
temperature changes from global climate models is shown for 2006–2100 under a lower (RCP4.5) and a higher (RCP8.5)
scenario (see the Scenario Products section of App. 3). Projections from two regional climate models are shown for 2036–2065,
and they align with those from global models for the same period.29,30 Sources: NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, and USGS.

Precipitation. Globally, subtropical regions
are expected to become drier in the future,especially in regions such as the U.S. Caribbean
where oceans have the largest influence on
local precipitation patterns.31 Climate model
results consistently project significant drying
in the U.S. Caribbean region by the middle ofthis century, specifically, a decline of morethan 10% in annual precipitation under thehigher scenario (RCP8.5; Figure 20.4).7,28,30,32
The magnitude of this projected drying, particularly for climate scenarios with the highest
amounts of warming, is in general lower inthe most recently developed climate models.28 The region is likely to experience more
intense rainfall events associated with tropical
cyclones;33 however, uncertainty remains
regarding various aspects of extreme rainfall
within the region, such as the frequency andU.S. Global Change Research Program

duration of extreme rainfall events associatedwith tropical cyclones.28,34 For instance, one
study34 finds less frequent extreme rainfall
events on average in the future at sub-daily
and daily timescales, while another28 finds
more frequent extreme rainfall events thatexceed 3 inches of rain in a day, as well as
more intense rainfall associated with tropical
cyclones.28,33
Sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Globally, surface ocean waters havewarmed by about 1.3°F per century between
1900 and 2016.35 Over the period 1955–2016, thewaters of the northeast Caribbean increasedin temperature at a rate of 0.23°F per decade,36
and over the last two decades, the sea surface
warming rate has reached 0.43°F per decade(Figure 20.5).

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Projected Precipitation Change for Puerto Rico

Figure 20.4: This figure shows the projected percent change in annual precipitation over the U.S. Caribbean region for the period
2040–2060 compared to 1985–2005 based on the results of two regional climate model simulations.29,30 These simulations
downscale two global models for the higher scenario (RCP8.5)26 and show that within-island changes are projected to exceed a
10% reduction in annual rainfall. Uncertainty remains as to the location of the largest reductions within the islands. Projections ofprecipitation change for the U.S. Virgin Islands are particularly uncertain because of model limitations related to resolving thesesmaller islands. Source: Bowden et al. 2018.30

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Ocean Chemistry and Temperature

Figure 20.5: This figure represents an annual time series from 1993 to 2016 of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ; black line),sea surface temperature (red line), and seawater pH (blue line) for the Caribbean region. The Caribbean ocean is subject tochanges in surface pH and temperature due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The oceans have the capacity
to not only absorb heat from the air (leading to ocean warming) but also to absorb some of the CO2 in the atmosphere, causing
more acidic (lower pH) oceans. Continued ocean acidification and warming have potentially detrimental consequences formarine life and dependent coastal communities in the Caribbean islands. Source: University of Puerto Rico.

Sea level rise. Since the middle of 20th century, relative sea levels have risen by about
0.08 inches (2 mm) per year on average along
the coasts of Puerto Rico and the USVI.37,38
However, rates have been slowly accelerating
since the early 2000s and show noticeable
acceleration (by a factor of about 3) starting in
about 2010–2011. This recent accelerating trend
is in agreement with what has been observed
along the southeastern U.S. seaboard, and rates
of global and regional relative sea level rise areprojected to continue to increase substantiallythis century, largely dependent on the amountof future greenhouse gas emissions. Under the

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Intermediate-Low, Intermediate, and Extreme
scenarios, relative sea levels are projected torise by about 0.8 feet, 1.2 feet, or 2.8 feet (24cm, 37 cm, or 84 cm), respectively, by 2050
across the region compared to levels in 2000
and by about 1.6 feet, 3.6 feet, or 10.2 feet (0.5m, 1.1 m, or 3.1 m), respectively, by 2100 (Figure20.6).38 Additionally, the region may experience
more than the global average increase under
the higher scenarios in response to changes inthe Earth’s gravitational field and rotation due
to melting of land ice, ocean circulation, andvertical land motion.

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Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise

Figure 20.6: (top) Observed sea level rise trends in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands reflect an increase in sea level ofabout 0.08 inches (2.0 mm) per year for the period 1962–2017 for Puerto Rico and for 1975–2017 for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The bottom panels show a closer look at more recent trends from 2000 to 2017 that measure a rise in sea level of about 0.24
inches (6.0 mm) per year. Projections of sea level rise are shown under three different scenarios of Intermediate-Low (1–2 feet),Intermediate (3–4 feet), and Extreme (9–11 feet) sea level rise. The scenarios depict the range of future sea level rise based on
factors such as global greenhouse gas emissions and the loss of glaciers and ice sheets. Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC.

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Key Message 1

drought or excessive rainfall provide insights
into vulnerabilities that may be indicativeof the future. Droughts and extreme rainfall
events in recent years have resulted in economic loss and social disruption. The mostrecent drought of 2014–2016 in Puerto Ricoand the USVI resulted in severe losses to theagriculture sector, implementation of water
rationing by the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and
Sewer Authority, drying of wetlands, andreduced habitat quality for freshwater biota,
including threatened and endangered species
such as the Antillean manatee.40

Freshwater
Freshwater is critical to life throughout
the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon
emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the endof the century, constraining freshwater
availability, while extreme rainfall events,
which can increase freshwater flooding
impacts, are expected to increase inintensity. Saltwater intrusion associatedwith sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal
aquifers. Increasing variability in rainfall
events and increasing temperatures will
likely alter the distribution of ecologicallife zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning,
and infrastructure capacity.

Freshwater resources are primarily surface
waters. In the USVI, desalination plants provide
some of the public water supply. In Puerto
Rico, management and sustainable use of water
resources and infrastructure have been problematic for decades, particularly in terms ofstorage, distribution, and quality of the public
water supply.41,42 In 2013, 57.4% of all waterproduced was lost in distribution.42 Recurring
droughts and sedimentation-induced reductions in reservoir storage present a challenge
to freshwater availability.43 One of the principal
sources of potable water for Puerto Rico, Loíza
reservoir, has lost nearly 40% of its original
storage capacity due to sedimentation.44,45

Linkage Between Climate Change andRegional Risks

Freshwater availability is a function of rainfall,temperature, evapotranspiration (evaporationand transpiration from plants), land cover,watershed characteristics, water use andmanagement, and water quality, and is dependent on the intensity, duration, frequency, anddistribution of rainfall within the island. Availability is also affected by seasonal and annual
variability in rainfall as well as long-termclimate trends. Climate change will likely resultin water shortages (due to an overall decreasein annual rainfall), a reduction in ecosystemservices, and increased risks for agriculture,human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic
development in the U.S. Caribbean.

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional
Risks

The greatest risk to freshwater resources may
be reduced availability due to drying trends.46
Large uncertainty remains in terms of projected rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency.
However, hydrologic model simulations indicate that major reservoirs in Puerto Rico could
enter permanent supply deficit as early as 2025
under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2)(see the Scenario Products section of App. 3)
and by 2040 under a lower emissions scenario(SRES B1; Figure 20.7).46

Rainfall in the U.S. Caribbean is highly variable
across space and time, complicating analysesof trends.39 However, past occurrences of

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Projected Change in Annual Streamflow

Figure 20.7: This figure shows ten-year moving averages of projected annual streamflow leaving Lago La Plata and Lago Loíza.
Projections were developed using an estimation of water supply entering the reservoirs and an estimation of withdrawals. The
former was developed using a range of global climate models (GCMs; shading indicates averages from all GCMs used in the
study) and the mean of that range (gray line). The latter was developed using a conservative population growth rate. Annual
streamflow is modeled under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2; left panel) and a lower emissions scenario (SRES B1;right panel). The solid black line is the historical streamflow through 2012.46 It is important to note these are the best estimatesavailable for projected streamflow and use the older generation of GCMs, which project more drying for the region.28 Source:
adapted from Van Beusekom et al. 2016.46

Studies indicate that some locations within the
Caribbean may experience longer dry seasonsand shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the
future.2,3,4,5,6,8 Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood9,10 and affect plant
phenology (the timing of important biologicalevents), as well as wildlife dependent on fruiting and flowering.47 Excessive rainfall coupledwith poor construction practices, unpaved
roads, and steep slopes, which are typical of
the Caribbean islands, can exacerbate erosion
rates and reduce reservoir capacity, water
quality, and nearshore habitat quality.

increases in dry life zones and the shrinkage
and disappearance of wetter life zones.
Ecological implications of these shifts include
changes in biodiversity, carbon cycling, forest
composition and structure, and nutrient andwater cycling.7 Vulnerable life zones include
the unique rainforest habitats in the Luquillo
Mountains of Puerto Rico (Figure 20.8).8,49,50Montane species are shifting their ranges
upslope and may reach upper elevational limits
as temperatures continue to climb.51 Studies
find that cloud levels in the dry season are
consistently as low as, or lower than, in the wet
season in the Luquillo Mountains, indicatingthat the cloud forest ecosystem may be more
vulnerable to wet-season drought periods thanpreviously assumed.10

Rainfall also drives the distribution of ecological life zones in the U.S. Caribbean.48 Projected
decreases in rainfall foreshadow relative

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Cloud Forests Are Vulnerable to Climate Change
Figure 20.8: Tropical montane cloud forests in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico are characterized by the frequent presenceof clouds, reduced tree height, a high number of endemic and endangered species, and high water content of the soil due toreduced sunlight. Cloud forests around the world are vulnerable due to the warming and drying conditions that are expected withclimate change.52 Cloud forests on low mountains are especially vulnerable, as drying and warming conditions can increase theelevation at which clouds form, thereby reducing or possibly eliminating the cloud cover shrouding the mountain peaks.53,54,55
Photo credit: Grizelle González, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry.

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success
Stories for Reducing Risk

Citizens of the USVI are required by law to be
directly responsible for their own domestic
water supply. The majority of USVI’s residents depend on cistern water and use thepublic source only when they run out of theircistern water.57

Climate change projections provide new
impetus to establish practices that reduce
current risks to drought and excessive rain
and, by inference, reduce future risks to new
conditions. The United Nations Environment
Programme has promoted rainwater harvestingin Caribbean Small Island Developing States(SIDS).56,57 The Puerto Rico Technical Scientific
Drought Committee also recommended theuse of cisterns and other structural measures
to capture rainwater in residential areas of
the territory, encouraged their use on existinghomes, and recommended making them
mandatory for new projects.40 These systems
not only serve as sources for drinking water
but also help in storm water management.58,59,60

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Application of new technologies is vital if
losses from water supply distribution systems
are to be reduced. Public freshwater supplies
are jeopardized by reservoir sedimentation,
which can also be harmful to downstream
ecosystems as sedimentation rates are reduced
downstream. Improving sediment management
practices, such as those identified from priorexperiences,61 can help sustain reservoir capacities and minimize environmental impacts.

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Emerging Issues

Corals are a major component of the coastal
protection, fisheries, and tourism economy of
Caribbean islands. Key Message 3 discusses
the importance of coastal systems to island
economies and the potential effects of climatechange on these economies. As in many
tropical island systems, coral reefs anchor
one end of the ridge-to-reef continuum—aconcept that recognizes the linkage of social,ecological, terrestrial, and marine components
associated with island systems (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i& Pacific Islands). Recognizing that the coral
reef ecosystem includes mangrove and seagrass habitats, this section briefly discusses
the role these habitats play in fisheries and thepotential impacts climate change is likely tohave on this role.

Managing freshwater and balancing water use
among sectors are emerging as two of themost important issues to the U.S. Caribbean
islands. Increasing agricultural production will
improve food security and the economy but
will be challenging, as water availability is likely
to decrease over much of the Caribbean.62
Options for improving water-use efficiency inthe agricultural sector include optimizing themanagement of water infrastructure, applying
scientific methods for scheduling irrigation,
determining crop water requirements for local
crops, using crop suitability modeling to evaluate potential responses to climate change andextreme weather scenarios, plant-breeding for
extreme conditions, and implementing methods to improve soil fertility, reduce erosion,and increase carbon storage (Ch. 27: Hawai‘i &Pacific Islands, KM 1).62,63

Ocean warming poses significant threats to thesurvival of coral species and may also cause
shifts in associated habitats that compose
the coral reef ecosystem (Ch. 9: Oceans, KM
1 and 3).35 The primary observable responseto ocean warming is bleaching of adult coralcolonies, wherein corals expel their symbiotic
algae in response to stress. Severe, repeated,or prolonged periods of high temperatures
leading to extended coral bleaching canresult in colony death. Ocean warming canalso harm hard corals that form coral reefs bydecreasing successful sexual reproduction,
causing abnormal development, impairing corallarvae’s attempts to attach to and grow on hardsubstrate, and affecting hard corals’ ability tocreate their calcium carbonate skeleton. Ocean
warming also increases the susceptibility ofcorals to diseases and is expected to increase
the impact of pathogens that cause disease.64
In 2005, a mass bleaching event, driven by 12
weeks of temperatures above the normal local
seasonal maximum, affected the entire Caribbean region, resulting in the loss of 40%–80%of the coral cover in the region.65

Key Message 2
Marine Resources
Marine ecological systems provide key
ecosystem services such as commercial
and recreational fisheries and coastal
protection. These systems are threatened by changes in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea levelrise, and changes in the frequency andintensity of storm events. Degradationof coral and other marine habitats canresult in changes in the distribution of
species that use these habitats and theloss of live coral cover, sponges, andother key species. These changes will
likely disrupt valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on
Caribbean island economies.
Linkage Between Climate Change andRegional Risks

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Ocean acidification associated with rises
in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels also is likely
to diminish the structural integrity of coral
habitats, affecting fisheries and other marine
resources (Figure 20.9).35 One study concluded
that calcification rates have decreased byabout 15% based on examination of different
species of calcification in planktonic foraminifera.66 Uncertainty remains about the magnitude of decreases in calcification on coral
reefs and some crustaceans and mollusks (suchas queen conch). However, a small decline incalcification rates has the potential to alter thegrowth–erosion balance of reefs if the erosionof the hard structure of reefs becomes more
frequent.67 Ocean acidification effects could
be further exacerbated by local processes incoastal zones, such as land-based transport ofnutrients to nearshore waters.

these areas as coastal waters get deeper.70
Additionally, increases in the magnitude andfrequency of storms result in impacts caused
not only by waves and surge but also by
increased rainfall and the associated transportof sediment and other land-based pollutants
into nearshore waters. Mangrove and seagrass
habitats filter storm water runoff, but large
volumes of sediment transported downstream
can overwhelm these systems, leading toburial of seagrass beds and partial burial ofmangrove roots, thus affecting the ability ofthese habitats to reduce pollutant transport
to coral reefs.
Caribbean reefs have experienced declines inimportant fishery species—such as the Caribbean spiny lobster and queen conch; predatory
species, such as snappers and groupers; andimportant herbivores, like parrotfish—due tooverexploitation.71,72 Overexploitation is demonstrated by the exceedance of commercial
annual catch limits (established by the Caribbean Fishery Management Council to protect
depleted stocks) in 2013 in Puerto Rico and the
USVI and in 2014 in Puerto Rico, leading to theestablishment of additional regulatory measures.73 In terms of annual economies, commercial fishing of reef fish provides an averageof $9 million to Puerto Rico, $2.4 million to St.
Thomas and St. John, and $3 million to St. Croix(in 2014 dollars).73

The compounded risk of climate changewith human-caused stressors increases
vulnerability and accelerates habitat loss anddegradation.68 Where fringing (nearshore) andbarrier reef systems have eroded, mangroves
and seagrass may also decline due to the loss ofprotection from wave action afforded by reefs.
The potential decline in seagrass and mangrove
habitats would be compounded by the effectsof coastal and in-water development on thesehabitats and on coral reefs, resulting in overall
declines in nursery habitat for importantfishery species like spiny lobster, queen
conch, snappers, and groupers. The impactsof climate change, in general, on seagrass in
the Caribbean is uncertain, but some studies
suggest that photosynthesis could be inhibitedat high temperatures.69 Sea level rise may leadto a reduction in the area occupied by seagrass
if waters become too deep for the plants toobtain enough light to photosynthesize. Sea
level rise is also projected to result in a loss ofmangrove habitat if low-lying coastal areas are
not present or have already been developed on
islands such that mangroves cannot colonize

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Studies show that major shifts in fisheries
distribution, coupled with structural andcompositional changes in marine habitats suchas coral reefs due to climate change, adversely
affect food security, shoreline protection, andeconomies throughout the Caribbean.5,69,74,75,76
In the U.S. Caribbean region, where fisheryresources are shared with other Caribbean
islands, competition for fisheries resources arelikely to increase as stock distribution changes
due to climate change (Ch. 16: International,
KM 4). Figure 20.10 shows the connections

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between climate change, marine habitats andspecies, and human communities. In the caseof Puerto Rico, the coral reef ecosystems off
the east coast of the main island (Fajardo area)
and the islands of Culebra and Vieques were
estimated as generating $192 million per year
for recreation and tourism and $1 million incoastal protection services annually (in 2007

dollars, or $217 million and $1 million in 2015
dollars, respectively).68 For the territory of
USVI, reef-related tourism was estimated as
generating $96 million per year, and coastal
protection was estimated as providing $6
million annually to the local economy (in 2007
dollars, or $108 million and $7 million in 2015
dollars, respectively).68`

Climate Change Effects on Coral Reefs

Figure 20.9: The diagram demonstrates how coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean are likely to change in potentiallywarmer and more acidic waters caused by climate change, including elevated sea surface temperatures and elevated carbon
dioxide (CO2) levels. The severity of these impacts increases as CO2 levels and sea surface temperatures rise. If conditions
stabilized with concentrations of atmospheric CO2 at 380 ppm (parts per million), coral would continue to be carbonate accreting,meaning reefs would still form and have corals. At 450–500 ppm, reef erosion could exceed calcification, meaning that reef
structure is likely to erode and coral cover is likely to decline dramatically. Beyond 500 ppm, corals are not expected to survive.77
Sources: NOAA and USFS.

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Climate Change Impacts
on Coral Reef Ecosystems and Societal Implications

Figure 20.10: The figure shows the connections between climate-related impacts (ocean acidification and warming as well as
severe storms), responses of marine habitats and species to these impacts, and, ultimately, the effects to ecosystem services(such as fisheries and shoreline protection) and, in turn, the human community. Specifically, the figure depicts how degradationof coral reefs due to climate change is expected to affect fisheries and the economies that depend on them as habitat is lost. The
figure also shows how reef degradation decreases shoreline protection for local communities, which affects the economy andhuman populations more generally. Source: adapted from Pendleton et al. 2016.78 Photo credits: NOAA.

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional
Risks

century with coral cover loss of 95% by 2090
under a higher scenario (RCP8.5).80

With high levels of greenhouse gas emissions(in other words, business as usual), mass coralbleaching in the Caribbean may occur at least
twice a year within the next decade.79 The
increasing frequency of extreme heat events
is highly likely to preclude reef recovery,
considering that the region’s reefs have yet to
fully recover from the 2005 event. Moreover,the increase in average temperature will makecorals more susceptible to extreme heat eventsand to coral disease, further contributing to
declines in live coral cover in marine habitats.64
One study suggests that coral reefs in Puerto
Rico are expected to pass a critical ecosystemthreshold in the first several decades of the

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Sea level rise is another climate-related stressor
in the Caribbean. The rate of sea level rise in theregion is expected to follow or exceed global
projections. Sea level rise will likely have effects
not only on marine communities by diminishing
the amount of sunlight they receive but also on
low-lying cays, which provide important habitatfor seabirds and sea turtles. Coastlines on thelarger islands and mainlands of the U.S. Caribbean
will be submerged or greatly reduced in extent
as sea levels rise. Coastal mangroves, squeezed
between rising seas and coastal development,
may be reduced in extent, diminishing the naturalprotection they provide against the action of830

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waves and storm surge and limiting their roleas wildlife habitat. Sea level rise is also expected
to lead to a loss of seagrass if waters become
too deep for them to photosynthesize. Photosynthesis will also be inhibited as sea surface
temperatures continue to rise, which is likely toaffect both seagrass and mangroves in addition tocorals, as noted above.

Several strategies meant to increase ecosystem
resilience to local stressors (such as declines
in water quality, overexploitation of fisheries,
recreational use, and coastal and marine development) are being implemented in the Caribbean
to lessen the potential impacts of climate change
on marine resources. One such strategy is theestablishment of protected areas in coastal andmarine areas. Management of these areas may
include limiting or prohibiting extractive uses,
implementing conservation and restoration ofcoastal and marine habitats, and designating
usage zones to minimize the impacts of recreational use on ecosystems. Another strategy iswatershed planning to minimize the transport ofland-based pollutants to nearshore waters, thus
protecting marine habitats from declines in water
quality caused by influxes of sediment, nutrients,and other contaminants. The NOAA Coral Reef
Conservation Program, in partnership with federal and local agencies and local nongovernmentalorganizations, has sponsored the development
and implementation of several watershed management plans in Puerto Rico and the USVI.81

The combined stress of sea level rise, increases
in sea surface temperatures, and ocean acidification, along with increases in the severity andfrequency of storms and associated transportof land-based pollutants into coastal andmarine habitats, will likely lead to loss anddegradation of these habitats. Future climatechange effects on marine habitats will likely
impact island economies due to changes in theavailability of key fishery species such as queen
conch, Caribbean spiny lobster, and species inthe snapper and grouper complexes; declines
in natural shoreline protection and associatedimpacts to coastal infrastructure and communities, as well as wildlife habitat; and loss of
tourism associated with habitats such as coral
reefs. Fisheries productivity is projected to
decline while catch effort increases as fishers
travel longer distances and spend more timeon the water.75 Potential losses of up to 90% of
the coral reef recreation value in Puerto Ricoare projected under most scenarios consideredby the end of the century, due to the expected
loss of coral reef habitat associated with climate change impacts.80

Building the resilience of marine organisms, suchas corals, is another strategy aimed at lessening thepotential impacts of climate change on the marine
ecosystem. Coral population enhancement throughpropagation (or coral farming) is a strategy meant
to improve the reef community and ecosystem
function, including for fish species that use thisecosystem (Figure 20.11). The selection and propagation of fragments and samples from coral colonies that have survived stressors such as bleaching
events are emphasized as part of these efforts in
an attempt to accelerate the otherwise uncertain
recovery of these species.82 This strategy has beenused in the U.S. Caribbean and South Florida torecover species such as elkhorn and staghorn
corals and species from the star coral complex—allof which are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act—without negatively affecting
native populations of corals.

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success
Stories for Reducing Risk

Climate change directly influences marine species’ physiology, behavior, growth, reproductive
capacity, mortality, and distribution, while indirectly influencing marine ecosystem productivity,
structure, and composition.74 As a result, fisheryresources and essential habitats for commercially,
recreationally, and ecologically important species
are likely to be less resilient.

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Coral Farming Can Increase the Extent and Diversity of Coral Reefs

Figure 20.11: Examples of coral farming in the U.S. Caribbean and Florida demonstrate different types of structures used for
growing fragments from branching corals. Coral farming is a strategy meant to improve the reef community and ecosystem
function, including for fish species. The U.S Caribbean Islands, Florida, Hawai‘i, and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands facesimilar threats from coral bleaching and mortality due to warming ocean surface waters and ocean acidification. Degradation ofcoral reefs is expected to negatively affect fisheries and the economies that depend on them as habitat is lost in both regions.
While coral farming may provide some targeted recovery, current knowledge and efforts are not nearly advanced enough tocompensate for projected losses from bleaching and acidification. Photo credits: (top left) Carlos Pacheco, USFWS; (bottom left)
NOAA; (right) Florida Fish and Wildlife (CC BY-ND 2.0).

Emerging Issues

threats to reef health, ecosystem services,and reef-dependent communities. Research
into the linkages between climate change andmarine ecosystems is critical to enhancing theability to predict future ecosystem responses
to climate change and the associated socioeconomic consequences, as well as finding ways tomitigate those consequences.

Integrating international monitoring networksof marine species and environmental conditions is critical to understanding the status
and trends of wide-ranging marine resources.
Areas like the Caribbean and the Pacific (Ch.
27: Hawai‘i & Pacific Islands), where marine
resources are key to socioeconomic well-being,
benefit from monitoring programs that assess

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Key Message 3

1970s to 2010. Of those transects, 5% sufferedvery high erosion, with a beach loss of 3.97 feetto 6.56 feet per year.86 Major loss of sand was
identified in various municipalities of the northcoast, including San Juan—the capital city
and a center of economic activity, ports, andtourism—as well as Loíza and Dorado, which
are cultural and tourist destinations. (For more
information on effects from extremes anddisaster events, see Key Message 5.)

Coastal Systems
Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean
island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home tocritical infrastructure, public and private
property, cultural heritage, and natural
ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action andhigher storm surges, will worsen coastal
flooding and increase coastal erosion,
likely leading to diminished beach area,
loss of storm surge barriers, decreased
tourism, and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being. Adaptive planningand nature-based strategies, combinedwith active community participation andtraditional knowledge, are beginningto be deployed to reduce the risks of achanging climate.

The response of coastal systems to sea level
rise is dependent on local natural and humanfactors.87 Natural ecological systems canprotect coastlines from erosion but can also
be affected by sea level rise and other environmental changes. Coral reefs, mangroves,and sand dunes buffer coastlines from erosion
and inundation, providing protective services.
They reduce risk to people and infrastructurefrom wave damage and flooding. The coral
reef–mangrove systems can reduce risk andprovide fishery services if space is available forlandward mangrove migration; however, thisprocess can be hampered by coastal development. Beaches and coastal dunes provide
wave energy dissipation and coastal asset
protection yet are highly susceptible to wave
action and erosion.

Linkage Between Climate Change andRegional Risks

A high concentration of population andcritical infrastructure in low-lying coastal
areas increases vulnerability to sea level riseand storm surge and magnifies the effectsof coastal flooding and beach erosion. For
example, most of the population in Puerto
Rico (62%, or more than 2.2 million) lives in
the 44 coastal municipalities, where a total of
1,019,300 housing units are also located.83,84
It is also estimated that 401,145 people (11.5%
of Puerto Rico’s total population) live in areas
subject to inundation, and 56,114 people live
in areas susceptible to storm surge, also
known as the coastal high hazard areas.83 As
sea level rises, storm surge and high energy
wave action may cause shorelines to recede
inland.85 Approximately 60% of 3,808 beachtransects studied along the coasts of Puerto
Rico (799 miles) experienced erosion from the

U.S. Global Change Research Program

The U.S. Caribbean Economy

The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Ricoand the U.S. Virgin Islands have distinct differences in topography, language, population size,
governance, natural and human resources, andeconomic capacity. However, both are highly
dependent on natural and built coastal assets.
Service-related industries account for morethan 60% of the USVI’s economy and caterto more than 570,000 tourists, as well as anadditional 2.1 million cruise ship passengers
who arrive to the island each year.88 In 2013 in
the USVI, tourists and cruise ship passengers
spent $851 million and $381 million, respectively (in 2013 dollars; $877 and $392 million,

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respectively, in 2015 dollars). Approximately
3.7 million people visited Puerto Rico in 2016as tourists, and an additional 1.3 million people
arrived via cruise ships. Tourist and cruise
ship passenger expenditures amounted to $3.8
billion and $202 million, respectively (in 2016
dollars; $3.8 billion and $200 million, respectively, in 2015 dollars).89

Operations of Puerto Rico’s ports, the Luis
Muñoz Marín (LMM) international airport, andthe city of San Juan are currently at risk fromextreme weather and climate-related events
and will likely be even more vulnerable under
projected sea level rise scenarios (Figure 20.12).
In 2016, 93% of all passengers entering Puerto
Rico through airports did so through the LMM
airport.91 The U.S. Caribbean’s economy is also
tied to climate impacts on Florida ports, as
raw material for industries, food, clothes, andessential goods are shipped from Jacksonville,
Florida, to the San Juan port and Isla Verde
airport. As such, Florida’s infrastructure vulnerability also affects the U.S. Caribbean.

Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion,
are among the main tourist attractions;consequently, these revenues from tourism
are at risk due to limitations of access anddeterioration to the coastal landscape. In
addition, residents’ recreational activities will
likely be disrupted, as about 63% of Puerto
Rican residents enjoy recreational activities
such as swimming, bathing, or sunbathing
on the beach.90

Critical Infrastructure at Risk, San Juan Metro Area
Figure 20.12: Puerto Rico’s Luis Muñoz Marín (LMM) international airport is already at risk from extreme weather and climaterelated events and is expected to become more vulnerable in the future as a result of continuing sea level rise. Photo credit:
Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.

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Cultural Heritage

sea level rise include the power plants on both
St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing
communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie,
Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines
for water and sewage.

Cultural and historic sites in the U.S. Caribbean
region are threatened by sea level rise andstorm surge. In the USVI, two significant earlyprehistoric sites, the Aklis and Great Pondarchaeological sites, are directly threatened bysea level rise.92 In Puerto Rico, effects on cultural heritage resources at risk due to climatechange include impaired access to coastal
resources like fishing, degraded ecotourism
attractions, and loss of public access to beaches.93 One of Puerto Rico’s most notable culturalsites, the San Juan National Historic Site (ElMorro), faces challenges from climate change,
including sea level rise and coastal erosion.94

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success
Stories for Reducing Risk

In Puerto Rico, the Department of Naturaland Environmental Resources (DNER) commissioned the development of five climatechange community-based adaptation plans forselected coastal municipalities.97 Through anactive community participation process, which
included surveys and participatory mapping,these plans evaluated the risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate change and developed
recommendations and adaptation strategies
that will serve as guidance for municipal governments, communities, and local businesses(Figure 20.13).97

Critical Infrastructure, Property, and Real
EstateSea level rise will likely increase threats to
private, commercial, and residential property,
as well as associated service infrastructure.
Over 8,000 structures in Puerto Rico’s lowlying areas would be affected by an increase
in sea level of 1.6 feet (0.5 m). A sea level
increase of 6.5 feet (2 m) would affect morethan 50,000 structures located along the coast,causing approximately $11.8 billion in losses (in2017 dollars).83

The USVI has released a guidance document
to promote resilient coastal and marine
communities through Ecosystem-based
Adaptation (EbA). EbA reduces risk throughthe protection and restoration of natural areas
like mangroves, dunes, and wetlands. Highrisk areas were identified through analysis ofsocial vulnerability, risk exposure, and adaptive
capacity. Eleven areas throughout the USVI
were selected as optimal to implement EbA
options, as they faced high-risk exposure, highsensitivity, and low adaptive capacity. Whenconsidering climate effects and adaptationin the Caribbean, traditional knowledge fromthose members of the community maintaining
the most intimate relationships with the landand natural systems is key to the early stagesof the planning process. Traditional fishing,subsistence agriculture, and plant harvesting
practices may provide a better understandingof how Caribbean Indigenous knowledge
systems have sustained generations in the pastand can benefit future generations.98

Critical infrastructure in the region is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm
surge, and flooding. As an example, if sea levels
rise 6.5 feet (2 m), which could occur during
this century under the Intermediate-High
to Extreme scenarios,38,95 Puerto Rico andthe USVI are projected to lose 3.6% and4.6% of total coastal land area, respectively.
Were such a rise to take place, Puerto Rico’s
critical infrastructure near the coast would be
negatively impacted, including drinking water
pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines
and pump stations, one wastewater treatment
plant, and six power plants and associatedsubstations.96 In the USVI, infrastructure andhistorical buildings in the inundation zone for

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Assessing Vulnerability with Communities
Figure 20.13: Culebra’s Mayor and community members worked on the participatory maps to identify risks, important natural
resources, infrastructure, and important services to the community in Culebra. This exercise allowed them to gather information
about issues in the territory that are important to the community but not commonly reflected in maps. Photo credit: Vanessa
Marrero, Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.

Natural and nature-based shoreline responses
are used as stabilization techniques against
erosion and can provide habitat for coastal
species. Wetlands, dunes, and mangroves experience less damage from severe storms andare more resilient than hardened shorelines,
and they also provide multiple benefits such as
habitat for fish and other living organisms, aswell as support recreational and commercial
activities.88 Mangroves alone can help reducewave energy, erosion, and damage causedby large storms.99 The U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service and the Puerto Rico DNER have funded
wetland and dune restoration projects at

U.S. Global Change Research Program

various sites along the coast of Puerto Rico
as nonstructural solutions to reduce coastal
flooding and beach erosion.

Emerging Issues

Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies
are gaining increased attention in Puerto
Rico, as they are more accessible to coastal
communities and can be cost effective. Also,stabilization and excavation of vulnerable
cultural sites throughout the USVI can serve toprotect or salvage cultural resources from theeffects of climate change.92

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Key Message 4

Linkage Between Climate Change andRegional Risks

Rising Temperatures

Records from weather stations in Puerto Rico
indicate that the annual number of days withtemperatures above 90°F has increased overthe last four and a half decades (Figure 20.14).
A number of extreme temperature eventsoccurred in Puerto Rico during the summersof 2012–2014, when most days exceeded 90°F.
This period included the hottest months onrecord and the longest continuous period ofdays over 90°F.11 Higher temperatures driveincreased energy demand to cool buildings
and indoor environments. San Juan’s recordheat episode in 2012 drove record-level energy
consumption. During that time, stroke andcardiovascular disease were the primary causesof death due, in part, to the elevated summer
temperatures in the municipalities of San Juanand Bayamón (Ch. 14: Human Health, KM 1).11,12

Natural and social systems adapt to thetemperatures under which they evolveand operate. Changes to average andextreme temperatures have direct andindirect effects on organisms and strong
interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued
increases in average temperatures will
likely lead to decreases in agricultural
productivity, changes in habitats andwildlife distributions, and risks to humanhealth, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be
fewer cool nights and more frequent hot
days, which will likely affect the qualityof life in the U.S. Caribbean.

Days Above 90°F in Puerto Rico

Figure 20.14: This figure illustrates the deviation from the long-term (1971–2016) average annual number of days exceeding
90°F, based on data from eight climate stations in Puerto Rico. Source: University of Puerto Rico. This caption was revised inJune 2019. See Errata for details: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads

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Heat stress can exacerbate preexisting healthconditions and lead to an increase in humanmortality.100,101 Time of year, repetition, duration, time between events, and adaptationof individuals are important determinantsof the health outcomes during extreme heat
episodes. Vulnerability to heat is a functionof exposure and personal sensitivity, which
depends on an array of individual factors andmay influence the ability to cope with extreme
temperatures.102

dairy farmers in the U.S. Caribbean by reducing
productivity of rangeland, causing a shortageof nutritional feed, increasing heat stress on
animals, and increasing energy costs for cooling.105 High temperatures and resultant heatstress reduce animal productivity and increase
the proliferation and survival of parasites
and disease pathogens. Warming reduces theability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain
weight and can lower conception rates.105
Tropical cropping systems are often more
vulnerable to climatic shifts and anomalies fora number of reasons. Many farmers throughout
the tropics, including in the U.S. Caribbean,
are considered small-holding, limited resource
farmers.1,15 This terminology refers to farmers
who own small parcels of land (fewer than 2–5
acres) and often lack the resources and/or
capital to adapt to changing conditions.15 Many
important tropical crop species, such as coffee,
evolved within relatively narrow temperaturebands and are more sensitive to variation in
rainfall and temperature than are crop species
native to temperate regions.24

Urban areas are particularly vulnerable toextreme heat events, given the concentration of built structures, traffic, and otherfactors that drive the urban heat island (UHI)
effect.103,104 Since the middle of the last century,
urbanization and population growth haveincreased the UHI effects in San Juan. Sucheffects are becoming even more life threatening with a growing and more vulnerable aging
population. Heat vulnerability index maps showthat the hottest and most vulnerable areas
correspond to highly built areas, including
within and around the LMM Airport, seaports,
parking lots, and high-density residential areas,
while cooler areas correspond to vegetatedlandscapes and urban bodies of water (such as
lagoons and wetlands).102

Finally, rising temperatures will generally
increase regional sea surface temperatures,
which tends to increase the maximum intensitythat hurricanes in the region can achieve.33
This can lead to stronger hurricanes and more
active hurricane seasons in general, which
the Caribbean region is especially vulnerable
to, as evidenced by the 2017 hurricane season(see Box 20.1).

The role of agriculture in Puerto Rico andthe USVI is both economic and cultural. The
economic role of agriculture has diminishedin recent decades compared to the mid-20th
century. Currently, less than 1% of Puerto Rico’s
gross domestic product (GDP) and approximately 1% of the USVI’s GDP is due to agriculture.13,89 Recent revitalizations in agricultural
productivity are vulnerable to climate change.
At risk are food security, rural livelihoods, andagroecological services. Increases in averagetemperature and extreme heat events will likely
have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region.13,14
Climate change affects cattle ranchers andU.S. Global Change Research Program

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional
Risks

Cooling degree days (CDDs), used as a proxy for
future air conditioning energy demands, areprojected to increase over time and to morethan double in Puerto Rico by the end of century (Ch. 4: Energy, KM 1).7 The warmer south
coast is projected to have the highest increasein CDDs in the first half of the century, while

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the San Juan metropolitan area is projected
to have its highest increases in the second
half of the century, suggesting higher energy
demands in the island’s largest metropolitan
area by the end of the century.7

distributions.108 Warming forces species tomove toward higher latitudes and altitudes.109
On small islands in the Caribbean with limited
latitudinal ranges, species’ adaptive movement
is limited to tracking changing temperatures
toward higher altitudes.

Warming, along with drying, is projected toaffect the terrestrial ecosystems in the region.
The ecological life zones of Puerto Rico areprojected to shift from rain and wet zones tomoist and dry zones based on the projected
drying. By the middle of this century, undermost scenarios considered, all life zones in
Puerto Rico are projected to shift to tropicalzones.7 Environmental suitability for species in
the region would be altered by life zone shifts,
which may lead to biodiversity redistribution
in the region. Environmental factors, especiallyclimatic variables, were shown to have higher
importance than land-use history on forest
species composition in Puerto Rico and the
USVI.106 The projected changes in the amountand spatial variability of climatic variables will
likely affect the composition and spatial redistribution of species.

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success
Stories for Reducing Risk

Green and blue infrastructure are, respectively,
the natural terrestrial vegetation and waterrelated components of an urban or other landscape. They provide many beneficial ecosystemservices for surrounding microclimates.102,110,111
Urban planning efforts in coastal cities are
placing greater emphasis on the use of green
infrastructure and water bodies for coolingurban environments. Planners in low-lying
cities are also incorporating adaptable spacesthat can accommodate occasional flood waters
while providing services such as parks or urban
open space112 that can also help mitigate the
UHI effect. In agriculture, the rapid expansionof electronic and worldwide communications
is bringing old and new adaptation practices
to a new generation of practitioners as they
deal with multigenerational problems ofwater management and heat stress in crops
and livestock.13

Climate change adaptation strategies andnational (as well as international) discussions
and agreements have focused more on direct
socioeconomic implications and less onchanges in natural ecosystems; nonetheless,climate-induced species redistribution affects
ecosystem functioning, human well-being,
and the dynamics of the climate change itself
and represents a substantial challenge forhuman society.107 Species respond to changes
in environmental conditions by tolerating thechanges, adapting to the new conditions, facing extinction, or moving, which changes their

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Emerging Issues

Cumulative effects on urban populations, agricultural sectors, and the natural environment
add complexity to developing scenarios andprioritizing actions to reduce risks related toclimate change. New alliances, collaborations,and governmental structures may be necessary
to address these complex challenges.

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Key Message 5

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropicalstorms), floods, and droughts are the mostfrequent and damaging extreme events in PuertoRico. More than 50 extreme events related tofloods, droughts, tropical storms, and winterswells have been declared emergencies and disasters since the mid-1990s.114 Disaster declarations
have occurred on a yearly basis since 2001.

Disaster Risk Response to Extreme
EventsExtreme events pose significant risks
to life, property, and economy in the
Caribbean, and some extreme events,
such as flooding and droughts, areprojected to increase in frequency andintensity. Increasing hurricane intensity
and associated rainfall rates will likely
affect human health and well-being,
economic development, conservation,
and agricultural productivity. Increased
resilience will depend on collaborationand integrated planning, preparation, andresponses across the region.

Over the years, extreme events have caused
billions of dollars in property and crop damages in Puerto Rico and the USVI. Tropical
cyclones cause the most severe disruption andeconomic damage. In 2017, damages caused
by Hurricanes Irma and Maria prompted ahumanitarian crisis in the U.S. Caribbean
by causing the collapse of the region’s mainenergy, water, transport, and communication
infrastructures (see Box 20.1). The estimateddamages for Hurricane Maria alone totaled
between $27 and $48 billion for the Caribbean
region, with Puerto Rico estimates ranging
from $25 to $43 billion (in 2017 dollars).115 Total
casualties caused by these hurricanes have
proven difficult to establish. In Puerto Rico,
estimates range from 64 to more than 1,000
deaths, although the evidence base is still
evolving in this area.

The Caribbean is highly vulnerable to disasterrelated risks.113 The U.S. Caribbean region
experiences hurricanes, extreme rainfall, anddroughts. The most extreme of these events havecaused significant disruptions in Caribbean island
livelihoods, including casualties and substantial
economic losses. Current demographic andeconomic characteristics of Puerto Rico and the
USVI—and their innate vulnerabilities as islands—
result in greater sensitivity to these events,
therefore imposing greater burdens in terms of
response and recovery compared to many placesin the continental United States.

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Box 20.1: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Impacts
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had devastating impacts across the Caribbean region (Figure 20.15) andreemphasized the exposure and vulnerabilities of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the region.116
During the unusually active 2017 hurricane season, there were 17 named storms (wind speeds of 39 mph or
higher), 9 of which impacted one or more Caribbean SIDS. Twenty-two of the 29 Caribbean SIDS (including
islands that are United Nation members and non–U.N. Associate Members of Regional Commissions) were
impacted by at least one named storm, and a large number of SIDS experienced catastrophic impacts from major hurricanes (wind speeds of 111 mph or more). Five SIDS were impacted by three storms, 13 by two storms,
and 4 by one storm. Eleven SIDS experienced tropical storm force winds (39 mph or higher wind speeds), 11
experienced hurricane force winds (74 mph or higher wind speeds), and 9 experienced direct landfall of a major hurricane.116
Of the 29 SIDS, only 7 were not significantly affected by the 2017 storms: Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Aruba,
Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and Curaçao. Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, Dominica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla,
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Saint Maarten, and Turks and Caicos were all affectedby Saffir–Simpson Category 4 and 5 hurricanes (winds of 130 mph or higher). The impacts and costs, in termsof lives and property damage, during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season are still being calculated. In this age ofsatellite technology, hurricane warnings are generally timely, and mortality rates during local hurricane passage
have been minimized, but post-event mortality numbers can grow quickly due to lack of electrical power, potablewater, food, and access to adequate healthcare, among other factors (Ch. 14: Human Health, KM 1 and 2).116,117
The death toll in Puerto Rico, for example, has been estimated to have grown by a factor of about 1700% in thethree months following Maria’s landfall on the island,116 due in part to the lack of electricity and potable water, as
well as access to medical facilities and medical care.
The health impacts across the Caribbean SIDS span a large range, including physical injury from wind and water
during hurricane passage and during post-event rescue and cleanup efforts, heat-related injury due to loss of access to air conditioning and fans, inability to manage chronic disease due to loss of access to electrical power
or medical services, and increased exposure to vector-borne diseases and diseases from contaminated water.
Mental health impacts are also notable, as most survivors experience a high degree of psychological trauma
during and after hurricane events (Ch. 14: Human Health, KM 1).116
Critical infrastructure in the region suffered catastrophic damages as a consequence of Hurricanes Irma andMaria. These hurricanes caused the complete failure of Puerto Rico’s power grid118 and the loss of power
throughout the USVI. Telecommunication infrastructure suffered major damages in the aftermath of the 2017
hurricanes, severely disrupting the communication capabilities of both Puerto Rico and the USVI.119 Over 70% of
potable water infrastructure was also severely affected in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria’s impacts, primarily from direct damages to infrastructure and loss of electricity.118
Hurricanes Irma and Maria caused catastrophic damage to crops and infrastructure across farms in Puerto
Rico and the USVI. In Puerto Rico, losses surpassed $2 billion in crops alone (in 2018 dollars), with damages toinfrastructure adding much more to the total.120 In the USVI, farms, ranches, and infrastructure, including government agriculture offices, experienced sizable damages; however, there are no official estimates of the economic
value of the losses caused by the storms.

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Box 20.1: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Impacts, continued
Hurricane Maria caused severe damage to the milk and poultry industries in Puerto Rico. Over $4 million (in2018 dollars) was lost in the poultry industry due to chicken mortality during the storm or conditions afterward(lack of water, shelter, or feed).120 Similarly, many in the milk industry lost barns, food for cows, or power, leading to an inability to sustain operations.121 Further, due to a lack of electricity, many residents were reluctant topurchase fresh chicken or milk, which affected the markets. Hundreds of thousands of residents are estimatedto have left the islands in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria,122 which is likely to affect the long-term demand for
agricultural products.
Based on information in NOAA’s ResponseLink, in the USVI, 479 vessels were displaced, and almost 4,000 orphaned containers, propane cylinders, marine batteries, and other waste from these vessels had to be removed
from coastal waters after the hurricanes. In Puerto Rico, 376 vessels were displaced, and approximately 27,000
gallons of waste oil had to be recovered from these vessels and coastal waters after the hurricanes. Coral reefs
and other marine habitats suffered impacts from transport of these vessels and associated debris into thesehabitats, as well as from debris transported in rivers and streams into nearshore waters. Hurricanes Irma andMaria also caused impacts to corals and other marine habitats due to bottom swells and wave action. Coral
farms being used to grow Endangered Species Act–listed corals as part of reef restoration efforts were largely
lost from sites around Puerto Rico and St. Croix, where they had been in place for years.
NOAA and its local and federal partners have been working on rapid assessments around the islands to determine the extent of damage to marine habitats in order to focus on habitat restoration and recovery efforts.
Surveys in Puerto Rico from October to December 2017 looked at 30 high-value reef sites, of which 20 wereidentified as having moderate to major impacts needing emergency restoration. Damages included large coral
heads being overturned or tossed into sand areas where they cannot grow successfully, extensive burial andbreakage of corals from waves and storm surge, and physical impacts from grounded vessels and debris. Surveys in waters off Christiansted, St. Croix, found physical impacts to seagrass beds associated with barge andother vessel groundings due to Hurricane Maria. Whether marine habitats impacted by the hurricanes are left torecover naturally or experience some level of restoration, there are potential short-term impacts to ecosystemservices such as fisheries and coastal protection while these habitats return to their pre-hurricane state.
The Caribbean lies in a region where the natural climate system acts in a way that compounds the effect thatwarm ocean temperatures have on hurricanes.123 In particular, when ocean temperatures are unusually warm,other environmental factors that affect hurricanes tend to be optimized. This is not the case for regions along
the U.S. mainland coast, where warmer waters tend to cause other factors to inhibit hurricanes.124 There arealso disparities between the United States’ resources to respond to local hurricane impacts and those of the
Caribbean SIDS. Furthermore, any impacts that may be exacerbated by global and regional climate change tend
to disproportionately affect regions that are geographically small and relatively short on resources.125
The challenges of effective disaster response in the U.S. Caribbean region are daunting and formidable.116 The
2017 Atlantic hurricane season provided a window into the vulnerabilities of the region and the difficulties in responding to hurricane impacts. As the response to the 2017 hurricane season continues in the region, sustained
dialog among the range of stakeholders whose interests and areas of expertise are involved can improve strategies regarding response actions and coordination of response based on lessons learned in 2017 and 2018.

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Box 20.1: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Impacts, continued

Hurricane Impacts in 2017

Figure 20.15: In September 2017, the U.S. Caribbean region was impacted by two major hurricanes: Irma (Category 5) andMaria (Categories 4 and 5). This figure shows the hurricanes’ tracks across both the Caribbean and (inset) the U.S. Caribbean
region, as well as (A–E) some of the impacts felt throughout the region. Sources: (tropical cyclone tracks) NOAA NCEI and
ERT, Inc. Photo credits: (A) Ricardo Burgos; (B) Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico DNER; (C) Michael Doig, NOAA; (D) Joel Figuero;(E) Greg Guannel, The University of the Virgin Islands.

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Damages from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in
Puerto Rico caused the longest-lasting power
outage in U.S. history to date (Figure 20.16).126
Communications for Puerto Rico and the USVI
were largely disabled following the hurricanes,
with a respective 88% and 69% of cellularcommunication infrastructure out of service.119
For Puerto Rico, preliminary estimates suggestthat economic losses to businesses due to winddamage for Hurricane Maria totaled $4.9 billion(in 2017 dollars, $4.8 billion in 2015 dollars).127
Alongside economic loss and infrastructuredamage, hurricane impacts also caused severe
disturbances to terrestrial and marine ecosystems, including sensitive coral reef colonies in
the region (see Box 20.1).

24 hours,129 affecting multiple residential andcommercial areas. The resulting floods caused
the temporary closure of the LMM International Airport, disrupting the movement of people
and goods. In November 2016, heavy rains andassociated flooding resulted in agriculturallosses of approximately $13 million (in 2015
dollars) in Puerto Rico.130
Droughts are one of the most frequent climate
hazards in the Caribbean. Since the 1950s,
at least seven major droughts have occurredin the U.S. Caribbean.131,132 Since 2000, there
have been five moderate droughts in Puerto
Rico that lasted, on average, 8.6 weeks (Figure20.17). The most recent major regional droughtof 2014–2016, classified as extreme, affected
Puerto Rico and the USVI, as well as otherislands in the region. At its peak, this drought
covered more than 60% of Puerto Rico’s landarea.133 Conditions resulted in water rationing
for 1.2 million people and over $14 million
in agricultural losses for 2015, primarily in
livestock, grazing lands, bananas, and plantains.40 While the onset and end of a drought
are hard to determine, records of the U.S.
Drought Monitor suggest that it takes only
weeks of abnormally dry conditions before
the declaration of a meteorological drought inPuerto Rico.134

Historical events much less severe than thosein 2017 have resulted in significant damages
as well. In 1995, Hurricane Marilyn resulted
in losses equivalent to 122% of the USVI’s
gross domestic product. From 2010 to 2016,hurricanes produced a loss of about $39 million(in 2015 dollars) to Puerto Rico’s agricultural sector alone.
Over the past 20 years, floods in urban
areas caused by extreme precipitation havefrequently disrupted human and economic
activities.128 On July 18, 2013, a record 9 inchesof rain fell in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in less than

Hurricane Maria Damage
Figure 20.16: Residential and vessel damages caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017, at (left) Palmas del Mar and (right) Punta Santiago,
Humacao, Puerto Rico. Photo credits: (left) Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico DNER; (right) Vanessa Marrero, Puerto Rico DNER.

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Maximum Extent of Drought

Figure 20.17: These maps show the maximum extent of each registered drought between 2000 and 2016 by the U.S. Drought
Monitor. While six drought events were registered, the most severe of these occurred between 2014 and 2016, with extreme
conditions covering the eastern half of the main island of Puerto Rico. The five events prior to 2014 were registered as moderate
drought and were short-lived in comparison. Source: USDA Forest Service.

Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional
Risks

islands’ governments to prepare for, respondto, and recover from climate-related disasters.

While there is still much uncertainty in global
climate model predictions of tropical cyclone
formation,135 climate models project an increasein the frequency of strong hurricanes (Categories 4 and 5) in the Atlantic Basin, including the
Caribbean.33 Drought projections for Puerto
Rico suggest an increase in both drought
intensity and frequency due to increases inboth average and extreme temperatures anddecreases in precipitation.7

Improvements in data collection of extreme
events and cost analyses of disasters haveenhanced the resilience capacity of the U.S.
Caribbean by supporting decision-making
processes, particularly for drought events(see Box 20.4). Policymakers and disaster risk
managers, as well as the general public, benefit
from accurate data to support planning fordisaster risk reduction. At present, current andhistorical data on the effects associated withextreme events are limited and not readily
accessible for government officials and disaster risk managers.

Challenges, Opportunities, and Success
Stories for Reducing Risk

The challenges for the U.S. Caribbean region in
formulating disaster risk responses to extreme
events lie in its geographical, social, and economic vulnerabilities. Puerto Rico and the USVI
face common challenges, such as distancefrom continental resources, scarcity of land
resources, increasing pressures on coastal andmarine resources, high volume of food andfuel imports, and limited human resources.1,25
Distance from the continental United States
increases the region’s vulnerability due tolimited access to resources in times of need.
Current fiscal and economic challenges of
the region, coupled with an increasing elderly
population, create additional challenges for the

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Collaborative action has proven to be a
successful strategy to manage and address
the impacts from climate-related disasters.136
Puerto Rico has actively provided humanitarianand technical support to other Caribbean
nations and U.S. states during climate-related
disasters and emergencies for at least 20 years.
In Puerto Rico, collaborative actions amongstate and federal agencies, academics, andclimate experts enabled improved preparation
for and management of the 2014–2016 drought.
Efficient coordination and collaboration
among agencies prompted a largely effective

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governmental response to the disaster risk
reduction challenges, while also promoting
greater public education and awareness about
extreme events (see Box 20.4).

and the adaptive capacity of Caribbean countries by leveraging capabilities and resources
and may help to speed up disaster recovery,
reduce the loss of life, enhance food security,and improve economic opportunity in theregion. The period following climate-related
disasters can provide the opportunity to
reduce future risks, when political attention
is heightened and key decisions are being
made on response, recovery, and planning.
Being proactive and building back better is a
simple idea, but its implementation has diverse
challenges.138 Recovery is not a neat linear
progression with a clear end point but is rather
a part of an ongoing process of development
and change with attendant uncertainties andhurdles, including financing, personnel, andincentives for collaboration across Caribbean
islands.16,138,139

Key Message 6
Increasing Adaptive Capacity
Through Regional Collaboration
Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainableinstitutional adaptive capacity can help
support and speed up disaster recovery,
reduce loss of life, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity
in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional
cooperation and stronger partnerships
in the Caribbean can expand the region’s
collective ability to achieve effective
actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme
events, and assist in recovery efforts.

New and sustained cooperation mechanisms
between U.S. territories and Caribbean countries would likely increase the participation of
Puerto Rico and the USVI in regional initiatives
addressing climate adaptation and disasterrisk reduction.

Shared Risks and Opportunities

Caribbean countries and territories sharebroad similarities in characteristics related toclimate vulnerability, including low availabilityof resources, high debt rates, coastal populations, remoteness, and dependence on imports
and global markets.137 The recent impacts of
Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 brought tolight the high vulnerability of Caribbean islands
to natural disasters and the potential benefitsof adopting long-term resilience measures.
Increased regional cooperation and strengthening partnerships between Puerto Rico, theUSVI, and the wider Caribbean countries canbe achieved through collaborative climate
research; by performing regional assessmentsof vulnerabilities, risks, and mitigation potential via joint efforts in adaptation planning andeducation; and by designing early warning
systems to support strategic decision-making.
These efforts are likely to increase resilience

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Effectiveness of Cross-Regional
Collaboration for Building Resilience

There is a history of regional efforts on climatechange assessment and governance in the
Caribbean (Figure 20.18). Joint regional efforts
to address climate challenges include theimplementation of adaptation measures toreduce natural, social, and economic vulnerabilities, as well as actions to reduce greenhousegas emissions. The Caribbean Small Island
Developing States (SIDS) have articulated
national climate change adaptation policies andimplementation plans using processes similar
to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change guidance for preparation of national
adaptation programs of action.

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Climate Research and Risk Management Organizations

Figure 20.18: Some of the organizations working on climate risk assessment and management in the Caribbean are shown.
Joint regional efforts to address climate challenges include the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce natural, social,and economic vulnerabilities, as well as actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. See the online version of this figure at
http://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/20#fig-20-18 for more details. Sources: NOAA and the USDA Caribbean Climate Hub.

Two regional entities specifically focused on
developing and improving information, services,and planning to support climate risk management
are the Caribbean Community Climate Change
Centre (5Cs) and the Caribbean Institute for
Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH; see Boxes
20.2 and 20.3). The 5Cs is headquartered in Belize
and is the main organization improving theframework and activities for addressing climatechange in the Caribbean region.

the scale of small islands, deployment of climate
and coral reef monitoring equipment, provisionof policy guidance for mainstreaming climatechange considerations into regional development
activities, preparation of a Regional Framework
for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate
Change140 and its accompanying Implementation
Plan, and the construction of desalination
facilities powered by solar photovoltaic systems
as solutions to water scarcity. The CIMH is an
institution of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and is the technical arm of the Caribbean
Meteorological Organization, a member of the UN
World Meteorological Organization. The role of
the CIMH is to assist in improving and developing

The 5Cs projects include development andtraining in the use of analytical tools (for example,
CCORAL; see Box 20.4), translating the outputs
from global climate models for application at

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climate services and to provide awareness ofthe benefits of meteorology and hydrology foreconomic and environmental well-being. Both the
5Cs and CIMH have engaged with U.S. territories
in anticipating and reducing risks and supporting
adaptation actions.

enable people and actions at regional, national,
and local scales; and 3) assess changes in ecosystems and species to inform decision-making
on habitat protection under a changing climate(Ch. 28: Adaptation, Figure 28.1).16,17 The CARICOM regional strategy and the framework fortransformation are clear steps in that directionand encompass goals that are shared by Puerto
Rico and the USVI.

Common to most Caribbean countries andterritories are the needs to 1) assess risks; 2)

Box 20.2: United States Virgin Islands and 5Cs Partnership on Vulnerability Assessment
The 5Cs, in conjunction with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), developed a Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Methodology inventory (Ch. 16: International, KM 4), which was used andmodified under the European Union–Global Climate Alliance Programme (2011–2015) in several Caribbean
countries. The 5Cs–NOAA method was combined with the approach derived from a local planning guidebook
on preparing for climate change developed under the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
program.141 This combined approach led to a Caribbean-specific methodology that has been successfully applied in Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Grenada.142,143 Common challenges acrossthe region include relatively small islands with diverse microclimates, locations, and levels of exposure to climate-related risks; the expanse of human settlement and critical facilities located along vulnerable coastlines;
inadequate forward planning; and a heavy dependence on imports of commodities, equipment, and energy,
which leads to extreme vulnerability to external economic shocks (Ch. 16: International, KM 1). These best-caseexamples provide a template for the vulnerability assessment that is currently being executed in the USVI under
the Climate Change Adaptation Planning Assessment and Implementation project.

Box 20.3: CIMH, NOAA, and the 5Cs Partnership to Deliver Climate Services
In 2010, CIMH, in partnership with NOAA and the 5Cs, reestablished the Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum to serve as the convening mechanism for regional engagement, early warning information, climate impacts,
and responses.16 Products resulting from this include the Caribbean Regional Drought Monitor and Climate
Impacts Report.144,145 Based on successes in the Caribbean Regional Outlook Forum, CIMH is leading the multisectoral Consortium of Sectoral Early Warning Information Systems Across Climate Timescales (EWISACTs).
The EWISACTs agreement makes the Caribbean the first region to formally create and implement a joint commitment between climate-sensitive sectors and a public climate services provider to support climate-resilient
risk management and development.

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Box 20.4: Collaboration and Tools for Cross-Country Capacity Building and Decision-Making
The Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation tooL (CCORAL) is a planning tool that can help countries
make climate-resilient decisions and take actions in response to a changing climate. (http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/caribbean-climate-chage-tools/tools/)
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility is the world’s first index-based parametric insurance mechanism. It is a partnership of 17 Caribbean countries and the World Bank. (https://www.ccrif.org/)
The Caribbean Challenge Initiative was launched in 2008, with support of The Nature Conservancy. Puerto Ricoand the USVI later joined participating governments committed to conserving at least 20% of their nearshore
marine and coastal environments by 2020 and to ensuring that these areas are managed through a long-term
finance structure. (http://caribbeanchallengeinitiative.org/)

Acknowledgments

Reducing Risks and Supporting Adaptation:
Gaps, Opportunities, and Benefits

The U.S. Caribbean region has potential to
improve adaptation and mitigation actions byfostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disasterrisk reduction. The U.S. Caribbean islands
are not members of CARICOM. However, theGovernment of Puerto Rico established a memorandum of understanding with the 5Cs towork collaboratively in climate adaptation andmitigation initiatives. Such agreements provide
mechanisms to foster cooperation and build
capacity in the region beyond the capabilities
of any single island, leveraging greater support
to address common challenges. U.S.-based
centers and activities can benefit from andcontribute to regional resilience. Key among
these are the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
Caribbean Climate Hub, the U.S. Department of
the Interior’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers, and NOAA’s Caribbean initiative, which is
supported by NOAA’s Climate Program Officeand NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management.

Technical Contributors
Mariano Argüelles
Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture
Gabriela Bernal-Vega
University of Puerto Rico
Roberto Moyano
Estudios Técnicos, Inc.
Pedro Nieves
USVI Coastal Zone Management
Aurelio Mercado-Irizarry
University of Puerto Rico
Dominique Davíd-Chavez
Colorado State University
Rey Rodríguez
Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture
USGCRP Coordinators
Allyza Lustig
Program Coordinator
Apurva Dave
International Coordinator and Senior Analyst
Christopher W. Avery
Senior Manager
Opening Image Credit
San Juan, Puerto Rico: © stevereidlphoto/iStock/Getty
Images.

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Traceable Accounts
Process Description
The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were
held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington,
DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held
weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review anddraft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team alsodeliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.

Key Message 1
Freshwater
Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon emissions
are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the century (likely, highconfidence), constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which canincrease freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity (likely, medium
confidence). Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity andquality of freshwater in coastal aquifers (very likely, high confidence). Increasing variability inrainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely alter the distribution of ecological life
zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure
capacity (likely, medium confidence).

Description of evidence base
The average global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased from 378 parts
per million (ppm) in 2005 to over 406 ppm during April of 2017. The rate of increase over this period appears to be constant, and there is no indication that the rate will decrease in the future.146
Several climate change studies have concluded that owing to increased atmospheric CO2 and theconsequent global climate change, rainfall will likely decrease in the region between now and theend of the century (e.g., Meehl et al. 2007, Biasutti et al. 2012, Campbell et al. 2011, Cashman et al.
20102,3,4,5). Neelin et al. (2006)147 and Scatena (1998)148 have predicted increasingly severe droughts
in the region in the future. Several downscaling studies, which specifically considered Puerto
Rico, predict a reduction in rainfall by the end of the century6,7,34 and constraints on freshwater
availability. Furthermore, Taylor et al. (2018)149 used the most recent generation of global climate
models and demonstrated that when global warming increases from 1.5°C to 2°C above the preindustrial values (1861–1900), the Caribbean experiences a shift to predominantly drier conditions.
Small watersheds that feed reservoirs are typical of the Caribbean region, and they are less able toserve as a buffer for rainfall variability. Small watersheds exhibit variable drainage patterns, which
in turn affect evapotranspiration, groundwater infiltration, and surface water runoff. Drainage
patterns in watersheds are also affected by the specific geometry, configuration, and orientationin relation to the average direction of wind over the region, as well as the morphology of rivers.
With a projected reduction in rainfall up to 30% on average for the island by the end of the century,7 certain watersheds will likely be less able to buffer rainfall variability and will likely see water

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deficits in the near future. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will
likely exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.
Streamflow is estimated using hydrologic models that are calibrated to networks of stream gauges
and precipitation measurements. Reservoirs are considered in a permanent supply deficit if theannual streamflow leaving these reservoirs falls below zero after estimating withdrawals forhuman consumption, evapotranspiration, and rainfall. Projections of when deficit conditions could
occur (circa 2025) are estimated using climate models.46
Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwaterin coastal aquifers. In Puerto Rico, groundwater quality can change when the water table is below
sea level in coastal areas or when the intensity of pumping induces local upconing of deeper,poor-quality water.43 Upconing is the process by which saline water underlying freshwater in an
aquifer rises upward into the freshwater zone due to pumping.150 When the water table is below
sea level, the natural discharge of groundwater along the coast is reversed and can result in
the inland movement of seawater or the upconing of low-quality water.151,152 Diminished aquifer
recharge and, to a lesser extent, increased groundwater withdrawals during 2012–2015 resulted ina reduction in the freshwater saturated thickness of the South Coast Aquifer. With sea level rise,groundwater quality will likely deteriorate even further in coastal aquifers in Puerto Rico.

Major uncertainties
As global changes continue to alter the hydrological cycle across the region, water resources are
expected to be affected in both quantity and quality. There is still uncertainty as to the extent andseverity of these global changes on small island nations such as Puerto Rico and the USVI, despite
notable advancements in downscaled modeling exercises. Current climatological observations
have presented an overall increase in mean annual precipitation across Puerto Rico.153 However,climate model projections point toward an overall decrease in annual mean precipitation toward2050 and an increase in rainfall intensity for extreme rainfall,6,7,28,30,34,154 including rainfall associatedwith hurricanes. There is more uncertainty regarding the frequency and duration to changes inextreme rainfall within the region.7,28,34
Selected CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3) and CMIP5 global climate
models (GCMs) capture the general large-scale atmospheric circulation that controls seasonalrainfall patterns within the Caribbean155 and provide justification that these GCM projections canbe further downscaled to capture important rainfall characteristics associated with the islands.156
Systemic dry biases exist, however, in the GCMs.155 And many GCMs fail to capture the bimodal
precipitation pattern in the region.28 The CMIP3 generation of GCMs that do capture the bimodal
rainfall pattern predict extreme drying at the middle and end of this century.7,28 The CMIP5 generation of GCMs also projects drying by the middle and end of the century, but the magnitude ofdrying is not as large. Local and island-scale processes could affect these projected changes, since
the land surface interacts with and affects both precipitation and evaporation rates.157

Description of confidence and likelihood
There is high confidence that freshwater availability will likely be constrained by the end of the
century and medium confidence that extreme rainfall events will likely increase in intensity. Thereis high confidence that sea level rise will very likely cause saltwater intrusion impacts on coastal

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freshwater aquifers. There is medium confidence about likely changes to ecological life zones but
low confidence about the distributional effects on the existing terrestrial ecosystems in the region.

Key Message 2
Marine Resources
Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial andrecreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes inocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in the frequency andintensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats can result in changes
in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the loss of live coral cover, sponges,
and other key species (very likely, high confidence). These changes will likely disrupt valuableecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island economies (likely,
medium confidence).

Description of evidence baseIn 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed elkhorn and staghorn corals as
threatened species under the Endangered Species Act, with persistent elevated sea surface
temperatures and sea level rise being two of the key factors influencing the listing decision.158
The Acropora Biological Review Team (2005) found that the number of hurricanes affecting reef
ecosystems in the Caribbean has increased over the past two decades (2 hurricanes in the 1970s, 6
in the 1980s, and 12 in the 1990s). Sea surface temperature is expected to continue rising, and this
implies an increasing threat to elkhorn and staghorn corals from bleaching-induced mortality andpossibly an exacerbation of disease effects. In 2014, NMFS listed an additional 5 species of Atlantic/Caribbean corals (lobed, mountainous star, boulder star, pillar, and rough cactus) as threatened and reevaluated the listing of elkhorn and staghorn corals, confirming them as threatened
species; it also listed 15 Indo-Pacific coral species as threatened,159 with two of the key factors
being ocean warming and ocean acidification. Brainard et al.159 found that ocean warming andrelated effects of climate change have already created a clear and present threat to many corals
that will likely continue into the future and can be assessed with certainty out to 2100. Increases
in human population densities and activity levels in the coastal zone are expected to continue,
meaning the vulnerability of these populations and infrastructure will likely continue increasing
with climate change.160 Direct measurements at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study stationshows that surface ocean acidity has increased by about 12% and aragonite saturation (Ωarg) has
decreased by about 8% over the past three decades.161 These values agreed with those reported
across the Caribbean162 and Atlantic regions18,161 using regional and global numerical marine carbonate system models.
Many coastal regions already experience low surface seawater pH and Ωarg conditions (localized orcoastal ocean acidification) due to processes other than CO2 uptake. As a result, the effect of ocean
acidification on coastal zones can be several times higher and faster than typically expected foroceanic waters.163

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Caribbean coral reefs in the Bahamas, Belize, Bonaire, and Grand Cayman are already experiencing
significant reductions in carbonate production rates, with 37% of surveyed sites showing net
erosion.164 Friedrich et al. (2012).66 concluded that calcification rates may have already dropped byabout 15% within the Caribbean with respect to their preindustrial values.

Major uncertainties
The link between climate stressors such as increasing sea surface temperatures and bleaching
response and increasing prevalence of disease in corals is postulated. There is some scientificevidence indicating a link, but it is hard to make definitive conclusions. Effects of climate change
on fisheries in the Caribbean have not been as well studied as the effects on marine habitats,particularly coral reefs.74,165 Similarly, the social consequences of climate change and associateddeclines in marine fisheries and the effects on coastal communities reliant on coral reef fisheryspecies have not been as well studied.166
Uncertainty with respect to ocean acidification is dominated by uncertainty about how ecosystems and organisms will respond, particularly due to multiple interactions with other stressors.
The value of the loss of ecosystem services to ocean acidification is unknown. Such losses are
attributable to the degradation of ecosystems that support important economic marine species
such as coral, conch, oysters, fish larvae, urchins, and pelagic fish in the Caribbean. There isstrong evidence for decreasing carbonate production, calcification rates, coral cover, and biomassof major reef-building species throughout the Caribbean region. However, there is still not enoughevidence to conclude that all these decreased ecosystem processes are due to ocean acidification.
There are only a few studies on ecosystem and organism responses to climate stressors (such as
ocean warming) that consider ocean acidification in the Caribbean. For instance, low pH values
could affect nursery areas of commercially important species such as tuna, presenting a sourceof vulnerability for the economy, but studies are scarce. Ocean acidification could also affectthe food web dynamics at lower trophic levels and have physiological effects at larval stages thatwould likely cascade upward, affecting coral and fish recruitment.
The effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs, shellfish, fish, and marine mammals will likely
cause an economic effect on fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism in the Caribbean. Ocean
acidification can exacerbate the current global warming effects on coral reefs, and it will likely
continue deteriorating reef conditions and cause ecological regime shifts from coral to algal
reefs.77,167 The primary effect on reef communities will probably be a reduction in their capacity torecover from acute events such as thermal bleaching.
Sea level rise is currently the most immediate and well-understood climate-related threat tomangroves.70 It is not clear how mangroves will respond to elevated CO2, and some studies suggest
increases may actually be beneficial to mangroves.70 Similarly, in the Caribbean where temperatures are already high, increasing temperatures, as well as declines in rainfall and corresponding
increases in soil salinity during periods of drought, will likely increase plant water stress andreduce productivity. There have been limited studies on the effects of climate change on seagrass
beds; therefore, these effects remain uncertain.69 Sea level rise that results in reduced sunlight due
to increased water depths can lead to the loss of seagrass beds from deeper waters. As discussed
previously, the loss or degradation of these habitats, which are part of the coral reef ecosystem

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and serve as nursery habitat for important nursery species, will likely contribute to declines infishery productivity due to climate change.

Description of confidence and likelihood
There is high confidence that increasing ocean temperatures, changes in ocean acidity, andchanges in the frequency and intensity of storms are extremely likely to affect coastal and marine
resources. Large storm events within the past decade have resulted in significant effects on
marine resources, particularly coral habitats and organisms that rely on them. There is medium
confidence in predictions that coral habitats will likely continue to decline throughout the
Caribbean, with associated effects on resources dependent on these habitats; although, scientificstudies are still needed in terms of climate change effects on fisheries resources, particularly forspecies that are found in offshore waters or are pelagic. Changes in coral habitats are alreadyoccurring as evidenced by massive coral bleaching events (including a three-year global-level
bleaching event from 2015–2017) and the increase in these events. Such changes in bleaching
events are due to rising sea surface temperatures. There is high confidence that there have beenchanges in ocean pH and medium confidence on the ecological effects. Due to the lack of studies
on the social consequences of climate change and associated losses of resources such as fisheries,
there is medium confidence that effects on coastal and marine resources resulting from climatechange will affect island economies. These effects can be a result of changes in availability andcondition of fishery resources, loss of reefs and other coral communities that serve as coastal barriers, and effects on tourism due to loss of the resources that are primary attractions for visitors.
There is medium confidence in the ecological effects that will result due to changes in ocean pH.
The CO2 system of seawater is well understood and established. As such, the understanding of
the basic equilibria governing the process of ocean acidification dates back to at least 1960168
and represents a foundational understanding of modern chemical oceanography. The ecologicalconsequences of human-induced changes to the system (that is, ocean acidification) is, however,a considerably new field. Both themes were assessed considering recent findings and based onadequate observed local data (for example, atmospheric pCO2 [carbon dioxide partial pressure]values are based on measurements of weekly air samples from St. Croix, the USVI, the UnitedStates, and Ragged Point, Barbados), complemented with empirical models. Projected changes
in climate for the Caribbean islands were based on the future projections of fossil fuel emissions
driven by reasonable models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).169
Additional empirical species response data would be useful for increasing the understanding of
expected effects of ocean acidification on species and habitats in the Caribbean.

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Key Message 3
Coastal Systems
Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island
economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage,and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher
storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion (very likely, very highconfidence), likely leading to diminished beach area (likely, high confidence), loss of storm surge
barriers (likely, high confidence), decreased tourism (likely, medium confidence), and negative
effects on livelihoods and well-being (likely, medium confidence). Adaptive planning and naturebased strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are
beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.

Description of evidence base
The Key Message and subsequent narrative text are based on the best available information for
the U.S. Caribbean. There are not many studies on or projections for sea level rise for the U.S.
Caribbean. Therefore, evidence of sea level rise used for this report comes from the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator.95 To calculate the Intermediateand High scenarios, the USACE uses modified National Research Council (NRC) curves, the mostrecent IPCC projections, and modified NRC projections with local rate of vertical land movement.95
The four NOAA estimates integrate data ranging from tide gauge records for the lowest scenario
to projected ocean warming from the IPCC’s global sea level rise projections combined with the
maximum projection for glacier and ice sheet loss for 2100 for the highest scenario. The sea
level rise analysis mainly focuses on data from two tide gauges chosen to be representative of
the region, one in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and the other in Charlotte Amalie, USVI. There are twoothers in the region that provide sea level trend data located in Magueyes, Puerto Rico, and Lime
Tree Bay, USVI.
Additional evidence that sea level is rising is well documented in Chapter 9: Oceans and in the
Climate Science Special Report. There are also numerous empirical examples of sea level rise andits effects in Puerto Rico and the USVI, where beaches have been reduced by erosion, roads havebeen lost, and access to schools has been affected.

Major uncertainties
Sea level rise is already occurring. However, the uncertainty lies in how much of an increase willtake place in the future and how coastal social and ecological systems will respond. There arevarious models and projections to estimate this number, but it is influenced by many unknown
factors, such as the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions and how quickly glaciers andice sheets melt. Another major uncertainty lies in humans’ abilities to combat or adapt to thesechanges. The scale at which people and cities will be affected depends on the actions taken to
reduce risk. Lastly, the experience of sea level rise on each coast and community is different,
depending on land subsidence or accretion, land use, and erosion; thus, the severity of effects
might differ based on these factors.

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Due to the levels of uncertainty surrounding the projections, we focused much attention on
the highest scenarios, as fewer consequences exist for planning in terms of the higher scenario (RCP8.5).

Description of confidence and likelihood
Sea levels have already risen and will likely continue to rise in the future. Based on current levelsof greenhouse gas emissions, glacial melt, and ice sheet loss, there is high confidence and likelihoodin these sea level rise projections.

Key Message 4
Rising Temperatures
Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve and operate.
Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects on organisms
and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued
increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases in agricultural productivity,changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks to human health, especially in vulnerable
populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer
cool nights and more frequent hot days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S.
Caribbean. (High Confidence)

Description of evidence baseIn warm tropical areas like Puerto Rico and the USVI, higher summertime temperatures mean
more energy is needed to cool buildings and homes, increasing the demand for energy. Heat
episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical regions like the U.S.
Caribbean. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of heat episodes are triggering serious publichealth issues in San Juan. Heat poses a greater threat to health and well-being in high-density
urban areas. Land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly, facilitating
the urban heat island (UHI) effect, with potential effects on heat-related morbidity and mortality
among urban populations.

Major uncertainties
Warming is evident. A remaining scientific question is how ecological and social systems that haveestablished themselves in a particular location can adapt to higher average temperatures.170 Islands
such as Puerto Rico are particularly vulnerable because of heat events associated with changes
in both terrestrial and marine conditions. Although there is evidence suggesting that mortality
relative to risk increases in San Juan due to extreme heat,12 this association is not completely
understood on tropical islands like Puerto Rico and the USVI. Addressing such hazards can benefit
from new strategies that seek to determine linkages between human health, rapid and synoptic
environmental monitoring, and the research that helps improve the forecast of hazardous conditions for particular human population segments or for other organisms.

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Description of confidence and likelihood
There is high confidence that increasing temperatures threaten the health and well-being of people living in the U.S. Caribbean, especially in high-density urban areas where the UHI effect places
further stress on city populations.

Key Message 5
Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events
Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean, and someextreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increase in frequency andintensity (flooding as likely as not, medium confidence; droughts very likely, medium confidence).
Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates (likely, medium confidence) will likely
affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation, and agricultural
productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration and integrated planning,
preparation, and responses across the region (high confidence).

Description of evidence base
On both Puerto Rico and the USVI, disaster events have caused billions of dollars in property andcrop damages.171 Over the years, disaster-induced casualties have declined in both territories.
Tropical cyclones, particularly hurricanes, continue to generate the most severe economic damage
across the U.S. Caribbean. Floods and droughts are challenging to manage for both territories, andthese challenges may be exacerbated by climate change induced shifts in precipitation regimes.
Climate modeling for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean
region, points toward an increase in the frequency of more intense hurricanes.135 An increase indays with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period is projected for Puerto Rico, based on
statistically downscaled CMIP3 climate models.28 Changes in precipitation patterns are expected
for Puerto Rico in the periods 2030–2050 and 2100, pointing toward an overall decrease in mean
precipitation for different climate change scenarios.7,28,30,34
While continental droughts typically affect vast regions, droughts affecting Puerto Rico and the
USVI tend to vary significantly in extent and severity over smaller distances.132 Statistically downscaled climate projections for Puerto Rico suggest an increase of drought intensity (measured as
the total annual dry days) and extremes (measured as the annual maximum number of consecutive
dry days) due to an increase in mean and extreme temperatures and a decrease in precipitation.7
An increase in mean atmospheric temperature has been observed across the U.S. Caribbean
islands, particularly on Puerto Rico. An analysis of the observed temperatures across several NOAA
weather stations in Puerto Rico showed rising temperature trends between 1970 and 2016.172 Following the principles established by the international Expert Team on Climate Change Detection
and Indices,173 temperature extremes and trends were identified, indicating significant increases inrising annual temperatures and an increase in extreme heat episodes.

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Major uncertainties
There are still uncertainties as to how these projected changes in tropical Atlantic cyclone activity
will affect the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation events. While an increase in days
with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period has been projected based on statisticallydownscaled CMIP3 models,28 more recent generations of GCMs do not show this increase in
extreme rainfall events, and this adds uncertainty. Results from two dynamically downscaled
climate models using the most recent generation of GCMs for the region do not show increases in
the frequency of extreme events.34
At present, data pertaining to the costs and effects that are associated with extreme events anddisasters are very limited and not readily accessible for government officials, disaster risk managers, or the general public. In the future, more accessible data could facilitate opportunities formore thorough analyses on the economic costs of extreme events for the U.S. Caribbean.

Description of confidence and likelihood
There is high confidence that increasing frequency of extreme events threatens life, property, andeconomy in the region, given that the U.S. Caribbean’s vulnerable populations and fragile economies are continually exposed to climate extremes. There is medium confidence that the frequency
and intensity of the most extreme hurricanes and droughts will likely increase. There is high confidence that extreme events will likely continue to affect human health and well-being, economic
development and tourism, conservation, agriculture, and danger from flooding. There is highconfidence that future recovery and cultural continuity will depend on significant and integrated
resilience planning across the region, focusing on collaborative actions among stakeholders.

Key Message 6
Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration
Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional
adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss of life, enhancefood security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional
cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand the region’s collective ability
to achieve effective actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme
events, and assist in recovery efforts (very likely, high confidence).

Description of evidence base
Cross-regional and international cooperation is a mechanism that will likely reduce climate
vulnerability and risks in the U.S. Caribbean, because it builds capacity and leverages resources ina region that has low adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation
relative to gross domestic product.1,17,145 There are several efforts among the islands focused on
coordination, information exchange, and approaches for risk assessment and management in the
Caribbean region.142,143,144,145 There are emerging opportunities for improving these partnerships andcapacity across the region.

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Major uncertainties
There is high certainty that Caribbean island states are being affected by climate change, but
the rate and degree of effects vary across countries due to the differences in environmental andsocioeconomic conditions. Examples of regional cooperation efforts to share knowledge, conductcollaborative research, and develop joint projects have increased the adaptive capacity in theregion; however, sustaining such efforts across the region remains a challenge. As efforts forregional coordination, cooperation, and information exchange evolve, evidence of the benefits ofcollaboration can be better assessed.

Description of confidence and likelihood
There is high confidence that climate change will likely result in serious water supply shortages
and in increased risks for agriculture production, human health, wildlife, and the socioeconomic
development of Puerto Rico, the USVI, and the wider Caribbean region. The effects of climatechange in the Caribbean region are likely to increase threats to life and infrastructure from sea
level rise and extreme events; reduce the availability of fresh water, particularly during the dry
season; negatively affect coral reef ecosystems; and cause health problems due to high temperatures and an increase in diseases.

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