Report on
Climate and water-food-energy nexus

Pakistan

The GEOSS Joint Asia – Africa Water Cycle Symposium
Tokyo, November 25-27, 20123

Natural Resource Base
• Out of 79.6 m ha, only 20 m ha area available for farming• 16 m ha irrigated and 4 m ha under rainfed farming• Pakistan is predominantly arid and semi-arid with 68 m ha(85%) where rainfall is less than 300 mm.
• Pakistan has diverse landscapes including: high mountain ranges of the Himalayas, Karakorams and Hindu Kush, snow-covered peaks, eternal glaciers, and the inter-mountain valleys inthe north, undulating highly vulnerable agri. areas of rainfed Pothwar
 vast rich irrigated plains in the Indus basin,
 stark deserts and rugged rocky expanse of plateaus in the south-west ofBalochistan.
 snow and glacier melt keeps the Indus Basin rivers perennial climate changes in Himalayan region can thus have a significant influence
over the water resources of the country

Recent Climate Change Trends• Rise in Mean Temperature 0.6 to 1.0 °C• 10 – 15% decrease in rainfall in coastal/ arid area
• 18 – 32% increase in rainfall in sub-humid to humid
areas of monsoon zone
• Occurrence of 19 extreme climatic events during 1992 – 2011(heavy rains causing floods, droughts, cyclones, heat waves)• 26-57% increase in winter rains in sub-mountain, central &southern Punjab, and north-eastern Balochistan

Major Issues:
High river flows variability-high flows in July, August and very
low in the rest of year
Vulnerability of floods, drought and GLOF
Highly topographic heterogeneity and remoteness making in-situ
measurement difficult
Lacking in capacity of development/application of distributedhydrological modeling
Degradation water quality due to exploitation of groundwater,
effluent from agriculture and industries
Arid coastal strips and mangrove areas are under increased
environmental stress from reduced fresh water flows

Improving water cycle observations
and prediction of hydro-met disasters
in Pakistan
Specific objectives of proposed project:
Improve monitoring capacity in the country
Distributed hydrological modeling to improve forecasting offloods/drought
Climate change impact assessment on drought, floods, GLOF
water-nexus and food security (agriculture, in particular)
Data access and sharing – Inter-organizational andtransboundry
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Outputs• Enhancement of water cycle observations• Improve capability of flood and drought
forecast and early warning• Assess climate change impacts on floods,droughts and water-food nexus (agriculture,in particular)Output–1: Enhancement of water
cycle observations.
Develop comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation
data archive for improving monitoring capability of water
cycle.
Develop long-term and comprehensive climate
observation data archives
Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
in the country.

1/3Output–2: Improve capability of flood anddrought forecast and early warning
Develop hydrological model (WEB-DHM)
Develop inundation model and update flood hazard maps.
Couple hydrological model with a crop model.
Develop and disseminate agro-climate predictions (soil moisture,crop water requirement) for crop water management
Develop a Decision Support System (DSS) by using observations
and model outputs.

2/3Output–3: Assess climate change
impacts on floods, droughts and waterFood nexus (agriculture, in particular)
Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
Apply bias correction and downscaling (statistical- anddynamic-) of the selected GCMs by Regional Climate Models.
Develop/improve socio-economic data archive
Analyse changing climatic extreme’s trend in terms of frequency
and intensity of flood, drought

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Methodology
WP -1: To develop long-term climate trends andshort-term climate variability
1.Improve hydro-met observational, modeling and application capacity
in the country
2.Improvement of near-real time rainfall and riverflow observation anddata dissemination systems
3.Coupling satellite and in-situ measurements of cryosphere to be input
to hydrological models
4.Develop/improve hydro-meteorological data archive to analyze the past
behavior and recent trends for monitoring capability of water cycle.
5.Integrate climate observation/model data archives, which are used forclimate change assessment, climate projections and model bias
correction.

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Methodology
WP -2: To improve cryosphere monitoring using in-situ observations andremote sensing data for better understanding of its dynamics and spatialvariability
1.The seasonal snow cover dynamics
2.Updating/refinement of glaciers inventory of using high resolution RS data
3.Selection of benchmark glaciers and their monitoring for long-term glaciohydrological characteristics
4.Development of high resolution Remote Sensing based Digital Elevation Modeldata sets for application to the distributed hydrological model
5.Promote field measurements on glaciers for mass balance, surface velocity,changes of moraine/terminus and behavior of ablation and accumulation zones.

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Methodology
WP -3: Distributed hydrological modeling to improve forecasting ofFloods/Drought modeling
1.Develop distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM)
2.Couple hydrological-crop-economic model for improved understanding ofsocioeconomic impacts of water cycle variability.
3.Strengthening of field based monitoring of hydro-meteorological variables athigh elevation areas
4.Hydrological modeling to derive water availability and demand scenarios atthe basin, sub-basin and catchment scales.
5.Quantification of contributions of rainfall, snow-melt, glacial-melt to runoff
through hydrological modeling
6.Impact of climate change on each runoff component (rainfall, snow-melt,glacial-melt, permafrost-melt)
7.Future water demand and availability scenarios based on demographic
scenarios, increased crop water requirement etc.
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Methodology
WP -4: Risk assessment of climate induced hazards of drought, floods andGLOF
1.Selection of suitable GCMs and assessing their data sets.
2.Bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of GCMs byRCMs.
3.Collection of socio-economic data and its archiving
4.Identification of changes in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorologicalextremes.
5.Land use changes, Inundation modeling and revision of flood hazard maps
6.Updation of inventory of lakes, GLOFs and promote indigenous knowledge tomanage GLOF risks
7.Investigate the adaptive capacity to adverse climate change impacts due to lackof technical knowhow and low financial resources

2/3Methodology
WP -5: Impact of hydrologic extremes on food security and socio-economic
conditions of community
1.Study/ Assess /simulate climate change impacts on agriculture and local crop
production pattern
2.Simulate evapo-transpiration and irrigation water requirement of major crops(wheat, rice, cotton, sugar cane)
3.Development of a Decision Support System (DSS) incorporating crop-waterclimate-socioeconomic scenarios.
4.To identify and propose potential adaptation measures

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Lead Local Organizations
1.Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad
2.Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad
3.Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Lahore
4.Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad
5.National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad
6.University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF)
7.Foreman Christian College Charted (FCC) University, Lahore

International Organizations
1.Remote Sensing data –JAXA, NASA
2.Hydrological Modeling - University of Tokyo-Japan, AWCI
3.In-situ Crosphere Monitoring - ICIMOD
4.Crop Water Management -Wageningen University-Netherland
5.Watershed adaptations- Colorado University-USA, ICARDA, ICIMOD
6.Agriculture and food security adaptation - BIOFORSK Norway, ICIMODNepal

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Lead Contributors

1.Dr. Gulam Rasul, Chief Meteorologist, PMD, Islamabad
2.Dr. Bashir Ahmad, Principal Scientific Officer, PARC, Islamabad
3.Mr. Danyal Hashmi, Manager, (WAPDA), Lahore
4.Dr. Shakil Ahmad, Assistant Professor, NUST Islamabad
5.Dr. Arshad M. Khan, Executive Director, (GCISC), Islamabad
6.Dr. Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha, Director External Linkages, UA Faisalabad
7.Dr. Uzma Hanif, Assistant Professor, F CC, Lahore

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International Projects
1.Impact of Climate Change on Melting Glaciers and Water Cycle Variability in
Asian River Basin. Funding Agency - APN
2.Differentiation of solid and Liquid Precipitation in Upper Indus Basin (UIB)for Hydrological Models. Funding Agency: DFID
3.Strengthening Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Pakistan. Funding Agency:
UNESCO
4.Climate Change adaptation in water and agriculture: IDRC and DFID funding
5.Early Warning System for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) inUIB. Funding Agency: UNDP
6.Demonstration of adaptation technologies at watershed scale. USAID funding

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