Plan of Implementation
Project Design Matrix (PDM) Proposal

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GEOSS Africa Water Cycle Coordination Initiative(AfWCCI)
Kenya: Tana River
Morocco: Ou Er Rbia Basin
Tunisia: Medjerda River Basin
Niger River Basin
Volta River Basin
Lake Chad Basin---------- 1---------- 5---------- 9----------14----------16----------19

GEOSS Asia Water Cycle Initiative(AWCI)
1. Bangladesh----------21
2. Cambodia: Sangker River Basin----------24
3. India----------27
4. Indonesia: Citarum River Basin----------31
5. Lao PDR: Xe Bangfai and Xe Banghieng River Basins ----------35
6. Malaysia----------39
7. Mongolia----------43
8. Myanmar: Ayeyarwady and Chindwin River Basins----------48
9. Nepal: Bagmati River Basin----------50
10. Pakistan----------54
11. Sri Lanka: Kelani River Basin----------59
12. Thailand: Ping River Basin----------62
13. Uzbekistan: Chirchiq - Akhangaran River Basins----------67
14. Vietnam: Thai Binh River Basin----------69

Kenya: Tana River Basin
Project Title: Integrated Collaborative Research on Climate Change, Water Resources and Food
Security in the Lower River basin, Kenya
Background
The water resources issues in this catchment include:• Acute water scarcity• Catchment degradation especially on Mt. Kenya and on slopes of Aberdares Ranges• Soil erosion and overgrazing in the lower parts of the region• Human encroachments into the watershed• High groundwater salinity in Lower Tana, in the coastal zone, due to over-exploitation• Seawater intrusion affecting the quality of groundwater• Increased water resource demand, urbanization and industrialization• Early warning systems are almost inexistent• Food production has been on the decline and droughts have become more prevalent• Increased sediment loading in the lower Tana and in the dams along the Tana
Due to increasing encroachment in the water catchment areas of Aberdares and Mount Kenya, flash
floods have continued to increase with more devastating effects in Lower Tana area. Coupled with thisis siltation which has continued to choke the seven forks dams and reduce their capacity for power
generation. Other effects of floods and droughts affect socio-economic activities in the catchment andother forms of livelihoods and health. These problems are quite diverse and need to be addressed
through an integrated approach.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of meteorological/hydrological disasters and effective use of water resources in the Lower
Tana River basin in Kenya for agriculture and hydro energy production
2. Project Purpose
To develop capacity for improvement of water and food security under climate change in the Lower
Tana River basin in Kenya.
These are the urgent needs in the following areas:
Recent and frequent floods in addition to drought damage on agriculture has led to foodinsecurity in the Tana basin which has exacerbated conflict for limited water resources
The Lower Tana basin is poorly observed. There are few observation stations and those which
exist are at coarse spatial and temporal resolutions
Basin-wide and multi-sectoral coordination of water resources management among flood control,hydro-power and agricultural use is weak. Several irrigation schemes and power generation
projects exist along the Tana river but their management is not coordinated and concerted as each
is managed largely independently of the others.

Early warning and extreme weather prediction capacity is very low in the basin and Kenya as a
whole

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Climate change makes these vulnerable situations more critical. To address these issues, we need to:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and crop production(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
3. Outputs
The key outputs from this proposed project include but not limited to -:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observationsa) Prototype near-real time rainfall observation and data dissemination systems by coupling
satellite and in-situ measurements which are used as inputs into flood prediction.
b) Develop comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation data archive for improving
monitoring capability of water cycle and developing hydrological models to be used for early
warning.
c) Develop long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archives which are used forclimate change analysis climate projection model bias correction.
(2) Demonstrate early warning capability of water and food securitya) Develop coupled hydrological – crop models for converting climatological andmeteorological data and information to usable information of water resources and foodmanagementb) Prototype real-time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems.
(3) Evaluate climate change impacts on floods, droughts and food productiona) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
b) Implement bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs.
c) Develop a socio-economic data archived) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood, drought and food production.
(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systemsa) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
b) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction anddownscaling, make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning andclimate change assessment, and offer the courses.
b) Promote secondary educational programs in collaboration with universities.
4. Activities, Key Leaders and Contributors
It is a key objective of this initiative to bring on board as many stakeholders as possible. Based on apreliminary meeting held at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT)
on the 16th August, 2013, the following organizations were identified as the probable candidates forthe initial engagements.
Lead Organizations• Water Resource management authority (WRMA)• Kenya Meteorological Services Department (formerly KMD)

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Water and Sewerage Companies – Murang’a water, Nyeri Water and Sewerage Company(NYEWASCO), Embu Water and Sewerage Company (EWASCO)?
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT)The University of Tokyo
Kyoto University
Power Generating companies – KenGen, Geothermal Development Company (GDC)
National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation (NACOSTI)
Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD)
Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS)Tana Water Services Board, Tana Athi River Development Authority (TARDA)
Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI)

Activities
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which will be developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with other organizations and initiatives as follows:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observation
1) Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility (KMS/WRMA) andsharing the data by Internet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to bedisseminated to wide communities.
2) In-situ and satellite observation data archive3) Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM
model outputs.
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability1) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation/crop growth.
JKUAT, DIAS, science communities
2) Prototype real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.
JKUAT, KMS, Univ. of Tokyo (DIAS)(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
JKUAT, KMS, Univ. of Tokyo (DIAS)
2) Bias correction and downscaling
JKUAT, KMS, Univ. of Tokyo (DIAS)
3) Socio-economic data archive
KNBS, NACOSTI
4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
WRMA, JKUAT, Univ. of Tokyo, CORDEX, DIAS, science communities(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems
1) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
DIAS2) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system

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DIAS
(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
1) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
JKUAT, U. Tokyo, Kyoto Univ.
2) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities.
JKUAT, U. Tokyo, Kyoto Univ.

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Morocco: Oum Er Rbia Basin
Project Title: Integration of geospatial and social data to set up and develop a water resourcesmanagement system for the Oum Er Rbia basin (morocco): Contribution to climate change
adaptation
Background
The Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin spreads on a surface of 50.000 km2. The population is about 4,5
million inhabitants, of which 65% are rural. The zone has an economic activity enough varied
including the irrigated and no irrigated agriculture, the mining industries, the agro-food industries,
tourism and of numerous big transformation industries. The yearly middle rainfall on the basin is 550
mms; it varies between 1100 mms on the Middle Atlas and 300 mms in the downstream zone. The
temperature varies between 10 and 50°C and the evaporation are 1600 mms per year in average oncoasts and 2000 mms inside of the country with a monthly maximum of 300 mms in July and August.
The storage of the basin is valued to 5750 m³ and the volume of water mobilized is about 3200
Mm³/year, which represents 30% of the country.
The observations of the past three decades (1970-2000) show signs warning of likely impact ofclimate change: frequency and intensity of droughts, devastating floods unusual change in thespatio-temporal distribution of rainfall. The water capital, already at the limit of water stress (840m3/capita/year in 2000) is in decline. The possibilities for mobilizing new resources are almost
unexpected. The only deposit currently available is represented by the high water losses in networks ofwater transport as well as optimizing its use. In addition to the scarcity of resources, there are otherproblems of pollution related to urban and industrial worn-out water dismissals and the agriculturalactivity. This context requires optimal management of resources. The Moroccan authorities at thecentral level have been absolutely conscious of that, but it is essential that the local level mobilize
more. This is one of the objectives of managers of water resources in the region under the plan "Green
Morocco» launched by the Moroccan government in 2008.
Accordingly, the Chouaib Doukkali University in partnership with its scientific international
partners and in collaboration with several other local partners and end-users (Regional Manager of
Water Resources’ ) has decided to take up research–action project in order to develop sustainable
development’ of water resources taking into account the climate change. The approach is based on a
study of the biophysical vulnerability of the basin using the available scientific tools and techniques at
the national and the international levels, particularly the remote sensing and the virtual reality
technologies. These information’s will be articulated with the socioeconomic data on Oum Er Rbia
basin proceeding from participatory process in order to define the socioeconomic impacts on the water
resources and to integrate them into the sustainable development’s prospective scenarios.
Following this action-research, we will be able to synthesize the prospective development scenarios’in a simulator (website, portal), designed as an interactive tool for raising awareness during public
information’s campaign, awareness of stakeholders targeted groups, strategic politic thinking andprocess formulation’s, planning and monitoring of investment development projects.

5Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
The overall objective is to contribute to the establishment of an IWRM plan integrating the fightagainst climate change in both mitigation and adaptation aspects. The specific objective is tocontribute, through action research project to improve the communication on climate issues, as well as
the coordination between the different actors involved in issues related to water in the Ou Er Rbia
basin.
2. Project Purpose
Include the purpose(s) here; use the bulleted list if necessary:• Characterization of the resource: current status and prospective models to identify trends,
according to natural (CC) and human impacts.
• Propose a plan for optimal management which will include a component to raise awareness ofgood practice for saving water• Capacity building (operability): An important aspect of sustainability by transfers the gained
knowledge to the beneficiaries in the basin. The project team Participates in various activities oftraining and coaching through the actions planned during the project. At the end, the local teamshould be able to make an operational and sustainable use of the project results. It is an action that
could be considered as a springboard for the creation of a regional observatory in water resources(Observatoire Réginal de l’Eau d’Oum Rbia, OREOR).
To address the above issues the items below should be done:(1) Biophysical vulnerability profile of the basin and assessment of water resources.
(2) Socio-economic vulnerability profile of the basin with regard to CC.
(3) Develop future scenarios for sustainable development of water resources, taking into account the
CC and establishment of an interactive simulator.
3. Outputs(1) Biophysical vulnerability profile of the basin and assessment of water resourcesa) Monitoring and assessing of the water level, water body mapping and monitoring (water leveland volume), water quality monitoring, and underground water exploration by Use newsatellite-based techniques with in situ measurements for inventory and monitoring of thevariability of water resources:b) High to medium land cover / land use change and degradation mapping (inc. vegetation
indices) and its implications on the territorial dynamics.
c) Hydrological monitoring and water balance characterization: Hydrological modeling by
scenario analysis and operational forecasting ; Flood forecasting and mapping of Erosion
potential ; evapotranspiration estimation at the basin level with special focus on the irrigatedarea; monitoring of drought and irrigated agriculture(2) Socio-economic vulnerability profile of the basin with regard to CC.
a) Qualify and quantify of the competition for water between users and characterize theevolution of each use (Population, Agriculture, Industry, and Tourism).
b) Relate water quality and types of pollution identified with a mapping and analysis of the
impact of human activities.

6c) Mapping of sociological information.
d) Analyzing self-adaptive capabilities to CC and quantification of the costs of adaptation andnon adaptation(3) Develop future scenarios for sustainable development of water resources, taking into account the
CC and establishment of an interactive simulator.
a) Compilation and synthesis of the biophysical and socio-economic data. A prototype system toevaluate vulnerabilities and identify options for adaptation.
b) Defining highlights problems and opportunities, and subdivision of the basin into different
zones according to their needs.
c) Prospective climatology from the scenarios for emissions of Greenhouse Gases, Climatic
models and local data (precipitation, temperature, topography ...).
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations• Chouaib Doukkali University, Geosciences & Remote Sensing Group (GRS_CDU), Morocco.
• Moroccan Association of Remote Sensing of the Environment (MARSE), Morocco.
• University of Tokyo (UT), Japan.
• Delft University of technology (TUD), the Nederland.
• International Foundation for a Territorial Approach to Global Change Scientific Services andKnowledge Sharing Partnership (TASK), France.
• National Network of Geo- information Sciences (REGI), Morocco.
• Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de l’Oum Er-Rbia ( ABHOER), Morocco.
• Office de Mise en Valeur Agricole de Doukkala (ORMVAD), Morocco• Office de Mise en Valeur Agricole de Tadla (ORMVAT), Morocco• Office chérifien de Phosphate (OCP) Morocco
List of potential collaborators and donors from the international community:(1) Biophysical vulnerability profile of the basin and assessment of water resources
1) Completion of a questionnaire to communicate with partners and regional actors, through asmall survey to assess their recognition of problems and assess their information needs andcapacity building.
Collaborators: all partners.
Donors: seeking donors
2) Collection and synthesis of existing data and identifying needs. Reconnaissance missions on
the field
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, TUD, UT, TASK, ORMVA, OCP.
Donors: seeking donors
3) Satellite data analysis
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, UT, TUD.
Donors: NASA, ESA will provide some satellites data
4) Data field data which have been generated by terrestrial measurements and newly measured
field data (meteorological, agronomic and social data)
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, TASK, ABHOER, ORMVA, OCP.
Donors: seeking donors
5) Hydrological modeling7Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, UT, TUD.
Donors: seeking donors(2) Socio-economic vulnerability profile of the basin with regard to CC
1) Produce spatially explicit maps of regional water vulnerability defining the ratio of thedemand to supply of available water.
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, TUD, TASK.
Donors: seeking donors
2) Test of climate and socio-economic change scenarios with implications in terms of theirimpact on human production-activity and water use requirements.
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, REGI, TASK.
Donors: seeking donors
3) Estimates of change in water demand for various human activities as response to changes inlocal climate, demographic, and water availability.
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, TASK, ABHOER, ORMVAD, ORMVAT, OCP.
Donors: seeking donors(3) Develop future scenarios for sustainable development of water resources, taking into account the
CC and establishment of an interactive simulator.
1) Definition of a communication tool integrated delivered on various digital media, system ofinteractive maps and simulations
Collaborators: GRS_CDU, TASK.
Donors: seeking donors
2) Organization of workshop-meeting for information, return the results. Set up a roadmap forsustainability.
Collaborators: all partners.
Donors: seeking donors
3) Setting up a forum or blog for the flow of information and communication between the
different actors. Leading to the creation of regional observatory in water resources
Collaborators: all partners.
Donors: seeking donors

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Tunisia: Medjerda River Basin
Project Title: Enhancement of Medjerda flood warning system
Background
The region of study is the Medjerda river basin from the frontiers with Algeria to Jedaida city. It iscalled by High and Middle Medjerda Valley, with mean annual precipitation 400 – 800 mm / year.
Medjerda is a Tran boundary river. The third of its watershed is located in Algeria. It is the Water
tower of Tunisia and has huge importance for water drinking and Agriculture sector (irrigation as wellas rain feed crops). Generalized floods occurred in the past (1969 and 1973) as well as in recent years(2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, et 2012). Flood generation processes are mainly heavy or evenmoderate rainfall with long durations and great spatial extent. The resulting soil saturation favors theoccurrence of surface floods and enhances the flooding process. Recently, the most important floodwith respect to flood peak was observed in January 2003. However, in February 2012, monthly rainfall
exceeded two to three times the monthly averages across the Medjerda basin. As a result, highdischarges were recorded (1500 m3/s at the Algerian border Ghardimaou and 1160 m3/s at Jendouba
station) [2]. Inundations took place along the Medjerda bed.
Medjerda basin hosts several multi objectives dams with conflictive objectives: flood protection,
drinking water furniture, irrigation with all maxima in summer season. Five upstream dams areinterconnected in the Tunisian part, while upstream dams are also in operation in the Algerian part.
Downstream Sidi Salem dam (reservoir capacity 750 Mm3) is a flood plain (nearly 2 millions ofpeople) with urbanization, agricultural and industrial activities. There is no basin authority but six
regional authorities (CRDA) in the study region, under the national authority of Ministry ofAgriculture.
Observation networks (rainfall, river and dams water levels, river discharges, water quality) areavailable but only ground data are used. Databases are maintained at regional and national scales.
Some information systems (geology, hydrography, pedology, soil occupation maps as GIS) areavailable at regional levels. Water management is operated mainly by the Ministry of Agriculture.
However, regulation tools and civil society are weak. Better governance is needed. International
projects have been coordinated by the water division office (DGRE) such as: Piseau I : 2001-2007;
328 MDT (BIRD, AFD, AfDB) – Irrigation- Drinking water- Ground Water /SINEAU (information
system); Piseau II : 2009-2014; 216 MDT (BIRD, AFD, AfDB) – Irrigation- Drinking water – WRM.
A previous work was performed by JICA (2009) in order to find out some regulation rules to mitigate
flood impacts.
Project aims to continue these efforts and to develop, with respect to flood management andmitigation, data, experiences and rules exchanges between both countries (Tunisia and Algeria).
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
The overall goal is to enhance the Medjerda flood warning system of the hydrological division(DGRE) of the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture (MARH) by providing numerical tools for flood
forecasting. At the moment, the SYCOHTRAC project is designed for flood warning only. It is basedon a network of telemeter raingauge stations together with a network of telemeter limnimetric stations.
Warnings are operated with respect to some rainfall intensity thresholds and water levels thresholds.

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Also they take into account how quick the changes in observed discharges are. A previous work was
performed by JICA [1] in order to find out some regulation rules to mitigate flood impacts.
2. Project Purpose
The project purpose is to:• Improve the Medjerda river flood monitoring system,• Put into service the use of rainfall satellite information,• To implement a rainfall-runoff model and flood routing model for runoff prediction andforecasting,• To develop with respect to flood management and mitigation, data, experiences and rules
exchanges with the Algerian part.
• To develop a capacity building program.
The main items what should be done to address the above issues are:(1) To install new observation stations(2) To enhance the numerical and building capacities of the flood forecast services with respect tosatellite data acquisition(3) To enhance the numerical and building capacities of the flood forecast services with respect toflood modeling(4) To develop a mechanism of information exchange between Tunisian and Algerian Medjerda
managers(5) To develop a capacity building program
3. Outputs(1) Improve the Medjerda river flood monitoring systema) Extension of the river runoff monitoring system by installing six new gauging stations.
b) Development of a daily and hourly rainfall database which will serve as reference to evaluate
the performances of satellite datac) Integration of the geographical information systems available at the regional level into a
unique system for the Medjerda watershed(2) Put into service the use of rainfall satellite informationa) Acquisition of rainfall satellite datab) Evaluation of rainfall satellite datac) Development of the computer capacity of DGRE.
(3) Calibration of a distributed hydrological model and a flood routing modela) Calibration of a flood routing modelb) Calibration of a rainfall runoff modelc) Use satellite data for models calibrationd) Use satellite data for flood forecastinge) Evaluation of forecast performance(4) To develop a mechanism of information exchange between Tunisian and Algerian Medjerda
managers.

10a) Better understanding of the actual experience of exchanges and its limitsb) Development of a Tran boundary partnership for a heavy rainfall and flood data assessment(5) To develop a capacity building programa) Flood routing model such as HEC-RAS,b) Distributed rainfall runoff models;c) SIG elaboration and flood inundation mapping ,d) Satellite data import and use,e) Water survey monitoring.
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Activities:
Item No.1:(1) Improve the Medjerda river flood monitoring system.
For the extension of the observation system, activities are the identification of stations locations.
The new locations are selected in order to facilitate the flood forecasting and taking into accountthe present gauging stations network. For the database extension, at the moment, a daily rainfall
database is operational in the hydrological office DGRE. This data base was used to study
regional climate simulations [3]. In fact, it is not properly a database. It is just under EXCEL
tables. Thus, a GIS should to be implemented under ArcGIS to deal with those data. For hourly
rainfall data, there is no structured database. Observations are not really at numerical form, unlessexceptionally. So, it should be interesting to elaborate such a database, in order to help forecastingfor example using the Analog method. For the moment, a SIG system is operational at regional
level. The present information contain in particular data about pedology and soil texture, as well
as soil occupation. These are very important information for flood prediction and forecasting
using rainfall-runoff modeling. It is aimed to aggregate this information in order to arrange asingle GIS system which will be helpful and a key step in case of establishing (in the future) a
High and Middle Valley Medjerda basin. Recent river bed elevation data have been performed by
JICA [1] along the Medjerda path and for rivers crossing Bou Salem city. Such information will
be helpful for the flood routing model calibration.
(2) Put into service the use of rainfall satellite information.
Rainfall satellite information is nowadays currently used by hydrologic services worldwide.
However, it is not very developed in Tunisia. A first attempt was developed in Université de Tunis
El Manar in collaboration with ITC [4]. The degree of matching of some satellite products withground data will be analyzed. The objective is to gather satellite data as rainfall runoff model
inputs and to see to what extent the results are sensitive. Some reference rainfall events will beselected. Maps provided according to ground data will be elaborated and compared to maps
originating from the satellite products. A bias correction approach should be developed in order tomake this information tractable and appropriate to the structure of rainfall-runoff outputs.
(3) Calibration of a distributed hydrological model and a flood routing model aiming an accurate
estimation of flood discharges at the hourly time step.
Till now, the hydrological service of DGRE does not comprise a flood routing model neither arainfall – runoff model. It is aimed to fill this gap by providing a flood routing model for the
Medjerda River as well as distributed rainfall runoff model for main sub basins. Models will take
into account the available rainfall and river discharge networks as well as the structure of the11present regional GISs and the Medjerda river bed characteristics. These models should be
operated at the hourly time step. The degree to which the rainfall runoff model is distributed will
be discussed with project collaborators such as dam service, agriculture representatives,municipalities’ representatives as well as in junction with the SYCOTRACH project. Thesemodels will be calibrated using the most important flood events occurring in the Medjerda during
the last fifty years. Also, a data assimilation procedure should be included to help runoff forecast.
The flood routing model will help delineation and prediction of flooding and inundating areas.
(4) To develop a mechanism of information exchange between Tunisian and Algerian Medjerda
managers.
Flood management and mitigation of a Trans Boundary river requires building data andexperience exchanges between countries. Although, a committee exists at present to discuss such
issues, tools and means of developing a permanent secretary with appropriate data bases andmanagement and emergency schemes might be developed during this project. Some examples
from African Trans Boundary Rivers (like Niger and Volta) might be analyzed. Tunisia signed in
1997 UN Water Convention. This project may contribute to enhance the capacity to go forward.
Mechanisms of data exchanges, building of a comprehensive groundwater model for the Sahara
Aquifers have been developed between Tunisia and Algeria under OSS. Such an experience led
by DGRE may benefit to Medjerda basin management.
(5) To organize workshops and short courses.
A capacity building program will be proposed to improve the model outputs sustainability.
Beneficiaries are the staff of hydrological services at national and regional levels as well as post
graduate engineering students that might be involved in the future in the system (private or
public).
Lead Organizations• The national hydrological service (DGRE)• University of Tunis El Manar (Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis, ENIT)• Upper and Middle Medjerda regional services of the Ministry of Agriculture (CRDA)• national dam service• Infrastructure service (DHU),• Agriculture representatives (water users)• Municipalities (population representatives).
List of potential collaborators and donors from the international community:(1) Improve the Medjerda river flood monitoring system
1) Extension of the river runoff monitoring system by installing six new gauging stations.
JICA, AfDB, AFD
2) Development of a daily and hourly rainfall database which will serve as reference to evaluate
the performances of satellite data
NASA, ESA, University of Tokyo, OSS
3) Integration of the geographical information systems available at the regional level into a
unique system for the Medjerda watershed
ITC, University of Tokyo, NASA
(2) Put into service the use of rainfall satellite information

121) Acquisition of rainfall satellite data
JAXA; ESA; NASA, ITC
2) Evaluation of rainfall satellite data
JAXA; ESA; NASA, ITC(3) Calibration of a distributed hydrological model and a flood routing model
1) Activity for outputs 3a) to 3e)
University of Tokyo; JICA, NASA, IRD(4) To develop a mechanism of information exchange between Tunisian and Algerian Medjerda
managers.
1) Development of a Tran boundary partnership for a heavy rainfall and flood data assessment
OSS; AMCOW, AfDB
(5) To develop a capacity building program
ESA; ITC, NASA, University of Tokyo, UNU, AfDB

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Niger River Basin
BackgroundIn the Niger River Basin, the meteorological disasters such as floods and droughts become more
and more frequent and their economic and human losses are rapidly increasing. Monitoring the current
situation and assessing the future conditions in the basin are of huge concerns for national agencies ofthe member countries, the River Basin Authority and the regional and international Governmental andNongovernmental Organizations and other stakeholders.
Also, the current climate condition in the basin is characterized by a strong intra-seasonal andinter-annual alternating drought and inundation conditions. This situation condition complicates theadaptation to climate impacts, because adaptation is not only in way.
On the other hand, a strong population growth in the basin (one of the greatest in the world) leads
to a significant change in land surface and hydrological conditions.
The existing current hydro-meteorological ground-based measurement network is in many cases
obsolete. After the severe drought started in the year 1973 in the Niger River basin region, there was astrong commitment of countries in strengthening hydro-meteorological measurement networks in thebasin. But, because of some economic difficulties faced by countries in the years 1990, the networks
had decreased. Now, it is well known that the existing operational network is not enough in terms ofdensity of the stations and also in terms of rapid access to the data to allow early warning on rapidhydro-meteorological phenomena in the basin.
So, there is a strong need to upgrade the networks and to take benefit from new available
techniques and tools to face the issue of monitoring of droughts and flood in the basin and also toassess the future conditions of these phenomena.
The hole Niger Basin is facing to these challenges, but the situation is more critical in somespecific areas. For example, flood has become more challenging issue for Niamey area, the capital of
Niger. Also, the future conditions of the water resources in the Upper part of the basin are critical issue
for irrigation and hydropower generation in the remaining part of the basin.
The sustainability of the Project in a policy aspect is very high because both Niger Basin Authority
and AGRHYMET Regional Center are permanent institutions and the objectives of this project are
explicitly targeted in their mandates. Both of these two institutions works on these issues in the Niger
for now more the 30 years and have well established national component. The sustainability of the
Project in a financial aspect is also high because the activities of the project will be part of permanent
activities of these two institutions and even after the project phase, these activities will be funded on
their own budget. Even, further funds will be expected in order to extend to the project activities tocover the whole basin. In technical aspect, both AGRHYMET and NBA are research and technicalinstitutions with scientist with permanent positions. They will continue to be involved and lead further
development of the project. As part of their mandate, they will transfer tools and methods developed in
the projects to countries through a participatory implementation of the project and a continuous
training for national experts.

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Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Hydrometeorological disaster is reduced in the Niger River Basin.
2. Project Purpose
An operational flood forecasting system is built to predict flood in Niamey, the capital of Niger and thefuture conditions of climate and land-surface changes in the upper Niger is accessed and their impacts
on irrigation and hydropower production in the downstream of the basin are evaluated.
3. Outputs(1) An on-line integrated meteorological and hydrological (rainfall, evapotranspiration anddischarge) observation network of 15 stations in the Sirba tributary, 2 stations in the Kory of
Gounteyena and 2 stations in the Kory of Boubon is established to contribute to flood forecastingin Niamey.
(2) An integrated meteorological and hydrological (rainfall, evapotranspiration and discharge)
observation network of 30 stations covering the upper Niger is established.
(3) Deep studies to characterize land charge surface changes in the Sirba tributary and in the upper
Niger is carried out.
(4) Deep studies to quantify current and future deforestation in the upper-Niger are carried out.
(5) Operational satellite meteorological products (rainfall, evapotranspiration) are assessed and used
for flood forecasting in addition to ground-based measurement network.
(6) Distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model is calibrated both for Sirba tributary and othersmall kory contributing to flood in Niamey area and the Upper basin of the Niger River.
(7) Understanding hydrological variation mechanisms in Sirba tributary and the Upper Niger forflood forecasting and climate and environmental changes impacts on water resources isenhanced.
(8) An operational experimental flood forecasting system based on the integration hydrological,
satellite products and on-line ground based measurement data is established for Niamey area.
(9) The future characteristics of the water resources in the Upper Niger are characterized, taking into
account deforestation and land-surface changes.
(10) The impacts of the future water resources characteristics on irrigation and hydropower
generation in the downstream of the basin are determined.
(11) Two stakeholders in the basin workshops are organized.

15

Volta River Basin
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
The overall goal of the project is to ensure a reduction of meteorological and hydrological disasters
and improve upon effective use of water resources in the Volta River basin.
2. Project Purpose• The purpose of the project is to improve upon the quantitative and qualitative data in the basinwith the view to improving upon the modeling and the management of the water resources in thebasin to meet various uses in support of the socio-economic development of the basin population.
• Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters, floods and droughts affect the resiliencecapacity of communities in the Volta River basin. It is necessary to focus on the prevention andintegrated risk management of these disasters.
• It is necessary to improve upon the food security situation in the basin by moving fromsubsistence to growth agriculture in the basin. For climate smart agriculture, we need more
attention on dry land agriculture and greater focus on risk management.
• Climate Change impacts negatively on economic growth and erodes the gains from the countries'
development. Therefore, we need to strengthen climatic database and information systems as wellas promoting the use of climatology and meteorology in multi-sectoral planning and the setup ofearly warning systems. We also need to promote an integrated approach to environmental issues
in particular articulating climate change adaptation as well as disaster risk reduction efforts.
• There is the need for basin-wide and multi-sectoral coordination of water resources management
among flood control, hydro-power and agricultural water use in the Volta Basin. However
quantitative and qualitative data needed to enhance the coordination in the basin is lacking.
To address these issues, we need to:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems(5) Improve upon observational data collection, modeling and application capacity
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observationsa) Prototype near-real time rainfall observation and data dissemination systems by coupling
satellite and in-situ measurements which is used as inputs into flood prediction models.
b) Develop comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation data archive for improving
monitoring capability of water cycle and developing hydrological models to be used for early
warning.
c) Develop long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archive, which are used forclimate change analysis and climate projection model bias correction.
d) An integrated meteorological observation network covering the parts of the Volta basin isestablished.

16

(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capabilitya) Develop hydrological models for converting meteorological data to hydrological information.
b) Prototype real-time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems,(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexusa) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
b) Implement bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs.
c) Develop socio-economic data archived) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood, drought and water-nexus.
(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systemsa) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing bybuilding on the existing infrastructure in the Volta Basin Authority.
b) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction anddownscaling, make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning andclimate change assessment, and offer the courses.
b) Promote secondary educational programs in collaboration with the universities.
4. Activities and Key Leaders and Contributors
Lead Organizations

Volta Basin Authority (VBA)/ AGRHYMETIn addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which will be developed, there will be collaboration
with the following organizations and projects as listed below:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observation
1 Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility and sharing the data byInternet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to be disseminated to wide
communities
WMO/HYCOS, ESA, TIGER-NET, NASA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
2 In-situ and satellite observation data archive
WMO/HYCOS, UNEP/GMES, UNESCO/G-WADI, UNESC-WMO/IGRAC, Tiger heritage,
ODA project heritage, AMMA, Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), ESA, NASA, NOAA,JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
3 Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM
model outputs.
WMO/HYCOS, Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), ESA, NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS
Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
4) Acquisition and installation of integrated meteorological observation network covering theparts of the Volta basin.
WMO/HYCOS, AfDB, EU, JICA.
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability
1 Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability for
runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth.
CREST, DIAS, science community
2 Prototype real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.

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17

ACMAD, ECMWF, National Weather Services, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, UNESCO-IFI,
UNESCO-Princeton Univ., DIAS
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1 Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
PCMDI, DIAS, science communities
2 Bias correction and downscaling
PCMDI, CORDEX, DIAS, science communities
3 Socio-economic data archive
GLOASIS
4 Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
GLOWASIS, CORDEX, DIAS, science communities(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems
1 Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
2 Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system
CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
1 Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
Tiger, UNESCO, NASA-SERVIR, RCMRD, ITC, UNU, UTokyo,
2 Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities.
ITC, UNU, UTokyo

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18

Lake Chad Basin
Project Title: Lake Chad Basin Flood and Drought Early Warning System
Background
The recent hydrological history of the Lake Chad Basin can be classified into the wet period (1950
to 1972) and the dry period which begins in the year 1973 with a two year drought that desiccated thenorth pool of the Lake Chad. During the past 14 years, the Lake Chad Basin has been experiencing an
increase in rainfall. The sudden resurgence of rainfall has resulted in four major floods that has
resulted in economic loss in the years 1999, 2004, 2010 and 2012. The pattern of this resurgence inrainfall and its spatial impact is not clearly understood because of the deterioration in thehydro-meteorological observation network occasioned by conflict, poor maintenance, and lack ofinvestment. The low observation density in the region has led to an inability to implement a flood
forecasting system that will help to minimize the impacts of meteorological and flood disasters over
the Lake Chad Basin. The two distinct periods of wet and dry climates were the result of climatechange. Since climate change is expected to continue, it is necessary for scientist in the Lake ChadBasin to have access to a downscaled regional climatic model to allow them simulate different climate
scenarios that are necessary for developing climate adaptation action plans.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of meteorological and hydrological disasters and the promotion of effective use of water
resources in the Lake Chad Basin.
2. Project Purpose
An operational forecasting system is established and made operational in the Lake Chad Basin to
support flood and drought disaster prediction and to provide the knowledge to adapt to climate change
in water resources management.
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations(2) Operational flood and drought early warning system is established for the Lake Chad Basin(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
4. Activities and Key Leaders(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations
1) Setup the receiving system for rain gauge data from data provider to the LCBC for
producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map.
2) Build a database of time series of In-situ and satellite observation data archive3) Create a climate data archive at least past 20 years4) Develop an online query and retrieval tool accessible through the internet for the
dissemination of climate data to the stakeholders of the Lake Chad Basin.

19

(2) Operational flood and drought early warning system is established for the Lake Chad Basin.
1) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth.
2) Prototype real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.
3) Produce and distribute the forecast information on water related hazard resulting from theexecution of the prototype application for early warning system to the stakeholders of theLake Chad Basin.
(3) Knowledge on climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus developed for theLake Chad Basin
1) Study and selection of GCMs which fully simulate the regional climate of the Lake ChadBasin.
2) Perform bias correction and downscaling of the applicable climate model.
3) Establish socio-economic database of the Lake Chad Basin.
4) Conduct an assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus as a result ofclimate change and disseminate report.
(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing system is established for the Lake ChadBasin.
1) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
2) Develop an online prototype data integration, analysis and information dissemination
system for the Lake Chad Basin.
(5) Observational, modeling and application capacity of the Lake Chad Basin Commission and its
stakeholders strengthened.
1) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses.
2) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities.

20

Bangladesh
1. Overall Goal
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation Measures for Sustainable
Water Resources Management in Barind Area of Bangladesh
2. Project Purpose
The main purpose/objective of the project is to assess the impact of climate change on water resourcesin the North West (NW) region of Bangladesh and to develop adaptation measures for sustainable
management of the water resources leading to socio-economic development of the area. The specificobjectives of this project are:
 Assessment of the present state of water resources.
 Assessment of Surface Water (SW) and Ground Water(GW) availability under present and futureclimate change condition.
 Assessment of water demand for different sectors.
 Formulation of suitable options for sustainable water resources management.
 Capacity building of related organizations.
3. Outputs(1) Assessment of the present state of water resources.
a) Trend of groundwater level variation.
b) Trend of river flow and water level variation.
c) Assessment of water quality.
d) Assessment of flooding characteristics e.g. flood duration, flood depth, areal extent etc.
(2) Assessment of SW and GW availability under present and future climate change condition.
a) Assessment of SW availability at key location of the perennial rivers.
b) Upazila-wise groundwater resources for the project area.
(3) Assessment of water demand for different sectors.
a) Present and future water demand assessment for different sectors e.g. agriculture, domestic
and industrial, forestry, fisheries and in-stream needs.
(4) Formulation of suitable options for sustainable water resources management.
a) Impact assessment of different SW development options on GW resources.
b) Socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of different options.
c) Automatic GW level monitoring network in a pilot area.
d) An Interactive Information System (IIS) to facilitate better resources management.
e) Performance evaluation of artificial GW recharge in a pilot area.
(5) Capacity building of related organization.
Trained professionals on:a) Mathematical modelingb) Water demand assessmentc) IISd) Water quality modelinge) Climate change assessment

21

4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations
Leading Organization: Ministry of Defense, Government of Bangladesh
It is anticipated that the following organization may be involved in implementation of the study:• Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR),• Ministry of Agriculture (MoA),• Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF),• Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB),• Barind Multipurpose Development Authority (BMDA),• Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC),• Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET),• Institute of Water Modeling (IWM) etc.
(1) Assessment of the present state of water resources.
1) Collection of different hydrological and hydro-meteorological data from different
organizations e.g. BWDB, WARPO, BADC, BMDA, BMD, DPHE, IWM etc.
2) Quality checking of the collected data.
3) Trend analysis of GW level, surface generation for pre and post monsoon season.
4) Statistical analysis of river Water Level (WL) and flow.
5) Collection and analysis of water quality data to assess seasonal and yearly variation.
6) Development and application of flood model to determine extent and duration of flooding.
(2) Assessment of SW and GW availability under present and future climate change condition.
1) Development and application of SW model using MIKE-11.
2) Statistical analysis of river flow data for different dependability.
3) Development and application of GW model using MIKE-SHE/MODFLOW.
4) Analysis of GW model data for GW resources assessment.
5) Select GCMs which can express the regional climatic property.
6) Implement bias correction and down-scaling of the selected GCMs.
(3) Assessment of water demand for different sectors.
1) Collection and analysis of cropped, forest and fishery area, soil properties, population etc.
from BWDB, DAE, SRDI, BBS etc.
(4) Formulation of development option for sustainable water resources management.
1) Identification of options in consultation with local people, professional communities andreview of existing reports
2) Technical evaluation of different options using mathematical model.
3) Collection and analysis of socio-economic and environmental data
4) Need assessment and installation of automatic GW level monitoring stations
5) Institutionalization of the automatic network.
6) Need assessment and development of the IIS
7) Installation of artificial recharge well.
8) Performance evaluation of the recharge wells using mathematical model.
(5) Capacity building of related organization.
1) Assess training need.
2) Develop training modules

223) Design and implement training courses in collaboration with national and institutions andorganizations.
Contributors: Likely funding agencies are ADB, JICA, WB etc.
5. Killer Factors and Mitigation Measures
Killer Factor
Timely availability of sufficient fund.
Coordination
andcooperation
amongst different agencies.
Knowledge gap

Discontinuity of related activities.

Mitigation Measures
Several donors may be exploredA
steering
committee
comprising
representatives from concerned agencies
may be formed.
There are certain areas e.g. climate change,
environmental flow requirement etc. inwhich case the physical processes are notyet fully clear. In such cases expert’s
support may be sought.
Suitable organization may be employed tocontinue it.

6. Reference: The proposed project planning has been formulated by the Ministry of Defense
through a study carried out by IWM a government owned trust organization.

23

Cambodia: Sangker River Basin
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Operational implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management approaches.
2. Project Purpose
Specific issues/needs in Cambodia:• In-situ observation network and data access and sharing platform not sufficient.
• Lack of flood/drought forecasting and early warning systems for operational applications.
• Climate change impact assessment on water nexus.
To address these issues, we need to:(1) Improve water cycle observation network and data management and information dissemination
systems.
(2) Develop capability of flood and drought forecast and early warning on an operational basis
including:a) Accessibility to numerical weather prediction data.
b) Suitable hydrological models for operational use.
c) Decision support and information dissemination tools.
(3) Understand the current situation and assess climate change impacts on seasonal patterns of water
cycle variables, floods, droughts and water-nexus (food and health in particular) and provide
recommendation for adaptation measures.
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate improvement of water cycle observations data management systems and information
dissemination systems.
a) Develop/improve near-real time rainfall and water level observation network by (i) installing
new stations and (ii) coupling satellite and in-situ measurements.
b) Develop/improve comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation data archive for improving
monitoring capability of water cycle and enhance data dissemination systems, which is thenused for flood and drought forecasting and early warning.
c) Develop/improve long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archives, which areused for climate change analysis.
d) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity in the country (education andtraining).
(2) Demonstrate capability of flood and drought forecast and early warning on an operational basis,starting with the Sangker river basin and then follow up with wider areas.
a) Establish easy and real-time access to numerical weather prediction data (Met./Hydro
services) for operational purposes.
b) Develop distributed, physically-based hydrological model(s) (e.g. WEB-DHM) for
converting meteorological (weather prediction) data into hydrological information andcapable of coupling with further modules, e.g. inundation, vegetation growth and crop24

production,…).
Develop inundation model and update flood hazard maps.
Develop drought assessment tools based on drought indices.
Couple hydrological model with a crop model.
Prototype real-time data management, operational modeling and information dissemination(early warning) systems (including information relevant for end users, i.e. decision makers
and local people).
g) Promote research achievements to decision makers and improve awareness of decision
makers and local people.
c)
d)
e)
f)

(3) Understand the current situation and assess climate change impacts on seasonal patterns of water
cycle variables, floods, droughts and water-nexus (agriculture, in particular) and provide
recommendation for adaptation measures based on IWRM practices, , starting with the Sangker
river basin and then follow up with wider areas:a) Review/conduct research on and assess current situation of regional and local water cycle
phenomena and water nexus.
b) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly (CMIP5 models).
c) Carry out bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs toregional and basin scales.
d) Methodology for assessment of hydrological changes using the CMIP5 climate projection
data (corrected and downscaled) and suitable hydrological model(s).
e) Assess changes in water budgets (precipitation, flow, soil moisture).
f) Assess changes in seasonal patterns (precipitation, flow regime).
g) Assess impacts of these changes on water nexus, primarily food (agriculture: rice production)and health (water quality – surface water, groundwater).
h) Propose adaptation measures compatible with IWRM approaches based on the climatechange assessment results.
4. Activities and Key Leaders and Contributors
Lead Organizations

Governmental sector: Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (Meteorology andHydrology department services), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, Ministry ofEnvironmentTonle Sap Authority
High-level Coordination Body among the Ministries and Tonle Sap Authority (to be established)
Cambodian Academia…?
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which has been developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with the organizations and projects as follows:(1) Demonstrate improvement of water cycle observation
1) Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility and sharing the data byInternet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to be disseminated to wide
communities
NASA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS

25

2) Satellite observation data archive
NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, DIAS, AWCI3) Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM
model outputs.
Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal,
NASA-SERVIR, DIAS, AWCI4) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
UNU, UN-CECAR, University of Tokyo (UT), AIT, JAXAb) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities
UNU, UN-CECAR, UT(2) Demonstrate capability of flood and drought forecast and early warning on an operational basis
1) Establish easy and real-time access to numerical weather prediction data (Met./Hydro
services) for operational purposes
NWP centers, AWCI, DIAS
2) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth (WEB-DHM) for the
Sangker river basin.
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
3) Develop inundation model(s) and update flood hazard maps
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
4) Couple hydrological model with a crop model
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
5) Prototype real-time data integration systems for hydrological modeling including data
assimilation and information dissemination.
Meteorology Department, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
2) Bias correction and downscaling
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
3) Socio-economic data archive
GLOWASIS?
4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
5) Propose adaptation measures?

26

India: Upper Bhima Basin
Background
The Upper Bhima Basin has a geographical area of 14,712 km2 and lies in western India in thestate of Maharashtra. Length of the Bhima River up to Ujjani Dam is 275 km. Across the basin the
average annual rainfall is 700 mm. The rainfall generally decreases from west to east with three
regions of varying rainfall: the extreme western region of heavy annual rainfall (2,300 mm), the foothill region where annual rainfall is moderate (800 to 1,000 mm) and the central and eastern region oflowest annual rainfall (400 to 600 mm). About 25% of the area in the Basin is hilly and highly
dissected, 55% is plateau and 20% plain and valley filled. Forestry covers 10.1% of the basin andagricultural use in the basin makes up 76.3 %. Of the crops grown in the basin, 64.8% are underirrigation. Soils in the basin range from reddish brown on sloping land (basalt 38%), coarse shallow
soils (12%), medium black soils (26%), and Deep black soil (24%).
Under the CCAA study, the rainfall and temperature data of Upper Bhima basin has been enteredin the DIAS network of Tokyo University for AOGCM quantitative evaluation. The suitable GCM
output for the region would be accepted after gap filling and bias correction of historical simulation
precipitation output and future projection precipitation output of selected models using observed
precipitation data. These future scenarios would be linked with hydrological model for assessing theimpact of climate change on water resources. Studies are required to be taken up for developing themodified methodologies for the assessment of water resources, hydrological design practices, floodrisk assessment and flood management and drought management, operation policies for some of theexisting as well as proposed water resources projects and assessment of available water for irrigation
including the land uses and cropping patterns. Quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities andassessment of adaption strategies with combination of climate projections and integrated assessment
models by utilizing comprehensive data of climate water cycle and resources are required for
integrated water resources development and management of water resources of the upper Bhimabasin.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Holistic approach for sustainable development and management of water resources in India.
2. Project Purpose
Include the purpose(s) here; use the bulleted list if necessary:• Water availability is likely to get affected by the impact of climate change.
• Increased intensity and frequency of extreme events including rainfall, floods, droughts andcyclones due to climate change.
• Increase in design flood estimates of the existing hydraulic structures and the hydraulic structures
to be constructed in future is expected due the impact of climate change.
• Increasing water demands and utilization due to population growth and developmental activities
in the country.
• Modification/ Change in the existing water resources planning, development and management
practices of water resources projects including operation policies of the reservoirs due to impact
of climate change.

27•

Gap between developed advanced technologies and their field applications and lack of IWRM
approaches in operational practices.

To address these issues/needs, we need to:(1) Demonstrate improved capacity in modeling techniques for climate change impact studies.
(2) Estimate the present water availability and future water availability considering the impact ofclimate change for the study area.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on extreme events for some regions of India.
(4) Estimate design floods for various types of hydraulic structures considering impact of climatechange.
(5) Estimate flood inundation for the present situation and future considering impact of climatechange.
(6) Assess water availability and demands under the changed climatic conditions and update water
allocation policies and operation rules for the reservoirs of the study area.
(7) Promote implementation of the advanced technologies and IWRM approaches in field
applications and decision-making process considering impact of climate change.Item 2
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate improved capacity in modeling techniques for climate change impact studies.
a) Improve techniques for GCM output (CMIP5) bias correction and downscaling.
b) Develop downscaled and bias corrected products of GCM outputs (CMIP5) over India.
c) Select GCMs which can represent the regional climate appropriately.
(2) Estimate the present water availability and future water availability considering the impact ofclimate change for the study area.
a) Applications of distributed hydrological model(s) (DHM) for converting meteorological datato hydrological information and capable of coupling with GCM outputs.
b) Simulation of distributed hydrological model(s) (DHM) with present and future
meteorological, LULC data to estimate water availability at selected locations.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on extreme events for some regions of India.
a) Carry out DHM(s) simulations using the corrected and downscaled GCM outputs for someregions of India.
b) Compare changes in frequency and intensity of rainfall, flood, drought, and water-nexus in
between present and future.
(4) Estimate design floods for various types of hydraulic structures considering impact of climatechange.
a) Estimate floods of various return periods using the L-moments approach of flood frequency
analysis for present condition.
b) Estimate floods of various return periods using the L-moments approach of flood frequency
analysis for future considering the impact of climate change.
c) Compare changes in frequency and intensity of rainfall, flood, drought, and water-nexus in
between present and future.
(5) Estimate flood inundation and flood hazard for the present situation and future considering impact
of climate change.
a) Estimate flood inundation due to floods of various return periods for the present.
b) Estimate flood inundation due to floods of various return periods in future considering impact

28

of climate change.
c) Estimate flood hazard and develop flood hazard classification scheme based on extent, depth,
elevation and duration of flooding as well as the maximum flow velocity for various return
periods using coupled (1-D & 2-D) hydrodynamic flow modelling for the present.
d) Estimate flood hazard and develop flood hazard classification scheme based on extent, depth,
elevation and duration of flooding as well as the maximum flow velocity for various return
periods using coupled (1-D & 2-D) hydrodynamic flow modelling for the future considering
impact of climate change.
(6) Assess water availability and demands under the present and changed climatic scenarios andupdate water allocation policies and operation rules for the reservoirs of the study area.
a) Estimate water demands of various sectors under the present and changed climatic scenarios.
b) Analyse the simulated water availability for hydrologic extremes, inter annual and interdecadal variations to meet the water demands from various sectors.
c) Propose adaptation practices considering major social, economic, and institutional factors
under the changed climatic scenarios.
(7) Promote implementation of the advanced technologies and IWRM approaches in field
applications and decision-making process.
a) Organization of training programs and workshops for promotion and dissemination of thedownscaling techniques, assessement of water avalability, hydrologic design practices,development of flood hazard maps and operation polices for reservoirs and IWRM
approaches considering the climate change scenarios.
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations• National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India.
• Water Resources Department , Govt. of Maharastra, India (subject to consent)• Indian Institute of Teshnology, Kharaghpur, India (Dr. C. Chatterjee, Asst. Professor)
In addition, provide list of potential collaborators and donors from the international community –specify for each Purpose Item:(1) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
1) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
UNU, UN-CECAR, UTokyo, AIT, JAXA, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
2) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities
UNU, UN-CECAR, UT Tokyo, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
(2) Demonstrate improved capacity in modeling techniques for climate change impact studies
1) Improve techniques for GCM output bias correction and downscaling.
AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
2) Apply distributed hydrological model(s) (DHM) for converting meteorological data tohydrological information and capable of coupling with GCM outputs
AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on extreme events for some regions of India.
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate, bias correction, downscaling.

29

AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
2) Carry out DHM(s) simulations using the corrected and downscaled GCM outputs for someregions of India.
AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
3) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of rainfall, flood, drought and water-nexus in
between present and future.
AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
AWCI, DIAS, Science communities, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.
(4) Promote implementation of the advanced technologies and IWRM approaches in field
applications and decision-making process
AWCI,National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee.

The PDM is subject to approval from Ministry of Water Resources, Govt. of India.

30

Indonesia: Citarum River Basin
Project Title: Evaluation of Water Resources Management System for Climate Change Adaptation
BackgroundIndonesia is an archipelago country which consists of 17,000 tropical islands where some of themare vulnerable to flood and drought due to the impact of both land use change and climate change.
Therefore some areas in Indonesia experience anomalies in climate condition, such as flood event in
the period of dry season, and drought event in the period of wet season.
In terms of climate change adaptation and mitigation, in November 2007 the Indonesian
Government published the National Action Plan on Climate Change (RAN-PI), which contains initial
guidance for a multi-sectors coordination effort, designed to address jointly the challenges of
mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In December 2007, Bappenas (National Development
Planning Agency) also published a document titled "National Development Planning: IndonesianResponses to Climate Change 1”, which is intended to strengthen and reinforce the RPJMN (National
Medium-Term Development Plan) 2010-2014.
Citarum River Basin plays an important role in economic development of Indonesia as it provides
raw water supply for about 75% of the Jakarta municipal water demand, most of strategic industrial
development in JABEKA (Jakarta, Bekasi Karawang), 242.000 hectares or irrigated rice field in its
downstream (Karawang, Subang, Purwakarta and Indramayu) and hydro power plant in its threecascade dams (Saguling,Cirata, and Jatiluhur). That’s why water allocation becomes a very complex
decision making problem in its water resources management. Furthermore, the above issues of land
use and climate change which is also observed in this river. Therefore water resources management inCitarum River Basin needs to be evaluated based on not only land use change but also climate change.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Risk reduction of hydrometeorological disaster and effective water consumption in Citarum River forsupporting economic development in the Greater Jakarta area, Indonesia.
2. Project Purpose
Adaptation of water resources management system in Citarum River Basin based on evaluation ofland use and climate change impact to flood and drought index by using improved datasets andanalytical methodology. There are three priority study area of Citarum River:• Upper Part (Bandung Basin) : Annual and extreme flood• Downstream Citarum River (JaBeKa): Annual flood and drought• Middle Part (three cascade dam ) : Annual water allocation for energy, irrigation, domestic andindustry
Climate change makes the current situations in Citarum River Basin more critical. Therefore, someanalyses need to be conducted to:(1) Update hydrological data and analysis method to identify flood and drought trend in Citarum
River Basin(2) Demonstrate climate change impacts on floods and droughts based on the updated data and31

analysis method(3) Improve the use of observational data and modeling to develop water resources management
strategies in the future and its application capacity
3. Outputs(1) Update hydrological data and analysis method to identify flood and drought trend in Citarum
River Basina) Updated observation data of rainfall, climatology, river discharge, and land cover in Citarum
River Basinb) Updated analysis method for flood and drought assessment(2) Demonstrate climate change impacts on floods and droughts based on the updated data andanalysis methoda) Updated flood and drought assessment through implementing of bias correction andstatistical downscaling of the selected GCMsb) To develop near-real time rainfall-run off data observation/assessment and data dissemination
systems based on ground data and satellite coupling which would be used as inputs into floodand drought predictionc) To develop comprehensive climate observation data archives including land cover satellite
image which are used for climate and land cover change analysis(3) Improvement the use of observational data and modeling to develop water resources management
strategies in the future and its application capacitya) Improvement the appropriate unit hydrograph method and drought indices for flood/drought
assessment in Citarum River Basin / Indonesiab) Dissemination of water resources management strategies, data sharing and technology among
institutionsc) Improvement of the curriculum for undergraduate program in the topics of water resources
engineering and management, sub-topics of flood and drought assessment
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations
ITB (Institut Teknologi Bandung)In addition, provide list of potential collaborators and donors from the international community –specify for each Purpose Item:
The potential activities and collaboration with other organizations are as follow:(1) Updating hydrological and analysis method to identify flood and drought trend in Citarum River
Basin1) Updating observation data of rainfall, climatology, river discharge, and land cover in Citarum
River Basin:
Expected collaborators:
 BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
 BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics)
 PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority) Dinas PSDA Jawa Barat (West Java Water Resources Development Agency)
 Puslitbang SDA (Research Centre for Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works)

32





AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative) and DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System)
GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems)
MP3EI (Masterplan for Acceleration and Expansion of Economic Development,
Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs)2) Updating analysis method for flood and drought assessment
Expected collaborators:
 AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative) and DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics)
 Puslitbang SDA (Research Centre for Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works)
 Directorate General of Higher Education (DIKTI) BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
 PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority)(2) Demonstrating climate change impacts on floods and droughts based on the updated data andanalysis method
1) Updating flood and drought assessment through implementing of bias correction andstatistical downscaling of the selected GCMs
Expected collaborators:
 AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative), DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System)
and University of Tokyo BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics)2) Developing near-real time rainfall-run off data observation/assessment and data
dissemination systems based on ground data and satellite coupling which would be used as
inputs into flood and drought prediction
Expected collaborators:
 AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative), DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System)
and University of Tokyo BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
 PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority)3) Developing comprehensive climate observation data archives including land cover satellite
image which are used for climate and land cover change analysis
Expected collaborators:
 GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems)
 AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative), DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System)
and University of Tokyo BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
 PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority)
 BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics)(3) Improving the use of observational data and modeling to develop water resources management
strategies in the future and its application capacity
1) Improving the appropriate unit hydrograph method and drought indices for flood/drought
assessment in Citarum River Basin / Indonesia
Expected collaborators:
 Puslitbang SDA (Research Centre for Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works)

33






Directorate General of Higher Education (DIKTI)BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority)
AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative), DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System)
and University of Tokyo

2)

Disseminating water resources management strategies, data sharing and technology among
institutions
Expected collaborators:
 BAPPENAS (State Ministry of National Development Planning) Ministry of Public Work BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics)
 Local Government BBWSC (Citarum River Basin Organization)
 PJT-II (Jatiluhur Dam Authority)
 Puslitbang SDA (Research Centre for Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works)
 AWCI (Asian Water Cycle Initiative) Other potential institution (future implementation for other river basin)

3)

Improving the curriculum for undergraduate program in the topics of water resources
engineering and management, sub-topics of flood and drought assessment
Expected collaborators:
 Directorate General of Higher Education (DIKTI)

34

Lao PDR: Xe Bangfai and Xe Banghieng River Basins
Project Title: Reduction of natural disaster by using meteorological and hydrological forecasts andearly warning system
Background
Lao PDR is a landlocked country, which located in the Southeast Asia between latitude 14 and 23
degree north, and longitude 100 and 108 degree east. The Country covers an area of 236,800 square
kilometers and has bordered with China in the North, Myanmar in the Northwest, Kingdom ofThailand in the west, socialist of Vietnam in the East and Kingdom of Cambodia in the South.
Lao PDR is also lying along middle part of the Mekong, which is the twelfth longest river in theworld. It flows through Lao territory from North to the South almost 1,860 Kilometers and forms oneof the mightiest river systems of the region. Due to territory of Lao PDR approximately 70%
comprises of mountains and plateaus. The topography of Lao with combination between mountains
and plateaus is form almost 202,000 square kilometers watershed and catchment areas, which are
more than 35%, contribute of the whole Lower Mekong Basin runoff. These geographical featureswith combination of the storm and monsoon that bring the flood hazards to properties also lives of thepeople living along the Mekong River and its tributaries in Lao PDR from past until now.
In Lao PDR droughts and floods are the most common natural disasters. Floods have the greatest
macro-economic impact on the country and affect a greater number of people, as the areas affected are
the primary locations of economic activity and contain 63% of the country population. Floods mostly
affected central and southern provinces of the country. 27 major floods have occurred over the past 35
years with an average reoccurrence of one every 1.5 years.
In the past 5 years, communities from Lao PDR suffered from the damaging effects of extreme
weather events. Climate change will increase frequency and intensity of these events and theinadequate capacity of institutions and vulnerability of socially excluded households can contribute toworsening of disaster risks. The big flood was occurred over the Xe Bangfai and Xe Banhieng River
Basins.
In this regard, the Government of Lao PDR efforts in strengthening the meteorological andhydrological observation networks over the central and southern parts of Lao PDR. Under thiscircumstance, in order to improve the atmospheric comprehensive observation system in these areas
and to enhance the prediction of weather, meteorological and hydrological disaster. It’s urgent need
improving the meteorological and hydrological forecast (models) and early warning system in theseareas.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of natural disaster by using meteorological and hydrological forecasts and early warning
system in Lao PDR
2. Project Purpose
There are urgent needs in the following river basins and flood-plain areas:
Xe Bangfai and Xe Banghieng River Basins: recent and severe frequent floods in addition to
drought damage on food security

35

Climate change makes the venerable situations more critical. To address these issues, we need to:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of weather and water cycle observations(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of meteorological and hydrologicalobservation networksa) Prototype near-real time meteorological and hydrological observation and data dissemination
systems by coupling in-situ measurements which is used as inputs into weather and flood
predictions.
b) Develop comprehensive in-situ observation data archive for improving monitoring capabilityof weather and water cycle, and developing meteorological and hydrological models to be
used for early warning.
c) Develop long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archive which is used forclimate change analysis, climate projection model bias correction.
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capabilitya) Develop hydrological models for forecasting and converting meteorological data tohydrological information.
b) Prototype real-time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexusa) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
b) Implement bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs.
c) Develop socio-economic data archived) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood, drought and water-nexus.
(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systemsa) Develop an integrated weather and water portal for improving data accessibility and data
sharing.
b) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction anddownscaling, make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning andclimate change assessment, and offer the courses.
b) Promote secondary educational programs in collaboration with universities.

36

4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations• Xe Bangfai and Xe Banghieng River Basins: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment(Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Department of Disaster Management
and Climate Change (DDMC)).
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which has been developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with the organizations and projects as follows:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observation
1) Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility and sharing the data byInternet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to be disseminated to wide
communities
WMO/HyCOS, ESA, NASA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
2) In-situ and satellite observation data archive
WMO/HyCOS, UNEP/GMES, UNESCO/G-WADI, UNESC-WMO/IGRAC, Tiger heritage,
ODA project heritage, AMMA, Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), ESA, NASA, NOAA,JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
3) Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM
model outputs.
WMO/HyCOS, Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), ESA, NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS
Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability1) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth.
CREST, DIAS, science communities
2) Prototype real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.
ACMAD, ECMWF, National Weather Services, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, UNESCO-IFI,
UNESCO-Princeton Univ., DIAS
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
PCMDI, DIAS, science communities
2) Bias correction and downscaling
PCMDI, CORDEX, DIAS, science communities
3) Socio-economic data archive
GLOWASIS
4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
GLOWASIS, CORDEX, DIAS, science communities(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems
1) Develop an integrated weather and water portal for improving data accessibility and data
sharing.
CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
2) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system

37

CEOS Water Portal, GEOWOW, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
1) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
Tiger, UNESCO, NASA-SERVIR, RCMRD, ITC, UNU, UTokyo,
2) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities.
ITC, UNU, UTokyo38

Malaysia
Project Title: Sustainable water and land management plan
Background
The Ringlet Reservoir is a man-made lake covering 60 hectares created upstream of Sultan Abu
Bakar Dam on Bertam River. Located at Cameron Highlands catchment area in the northwest of thestate of Pahang, Malaysia, it is a mountainous terrain having various mountain peaks ranging from1524m to 2032m. Cameron highlands is one the largest hill resorts in Malaysia, also referred to as‘green bowls’, growing a wide variety of vegetables, flowers and other ornamental plants. It also
provides many tourist attractions such as tea plantations, tea factories, rose gardens, strawberry farms
and aging colonial-style homes. The Ringlet reservoir has a maximum live storage of 4.7 million cubic
meters and the main features of the storage is connected to the 100MW underground power station
which consists of four small run-of-river and storage hydro projects and has five power stations.
However, due to various reasons such as land erosion, uncontrolled development, legal and illegal
land clearing, deforestation, and reckless farming practices, rubbish, silt and sediment have clogged up
the dam and caused the reservoir capacity to decrease to a mere 1.5 million cubic meters. As recently
as 23 Oct 2013, continuous rainfall and subsequent dam release caused the river to overflow and mud
flood to inundate a downstream village, killing 3 people. Prior to this disaster, fatal landslides had
occurred in this area in years 1996, 2000, and 2008. With the onset of climate change, the situation in
Bertam valley is looking dire.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reducing water related disaster (man-made and natural); and improving water resources managementin the context of water nexus and climate change
2. Project Purpose
This study aims to quantify and minimize the impact of climatic and non-climatic factor on
sedimentation in Ringlet Reservoir and water nexus issues within the vicinity of Cameron Highlands.
To address these issues, there is a need to:(1) Establish a hydro-meteorological observation and real-time monitoring network covering thewhole Cameron Highlands(2) Development of integrated land-use and GIS database to monitor atmosphere-land interaction in
upper Cameron Highlands(3) Establish and improve soil erosion model/sediment transport model for accurate simulation of
sedimentation in Ringlet Reservoir.
(4) Projection of climate change impacts on potential risk or disaster on water resources andwater-nexus in Cameron Highlands(5) Develop numerical model for inflow forecasting, early warning system and Decision Support
System (DSS) for local authorities and decision-makers.
3. Outputs(1) Establish a hydro-meteorological observation and real-time monitoring network covering the39whole Cameron Highlandsa) Precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and flow observation network
throughout Cameron Highlands.
(2) Development of integrated land-use and GIS database to monitor atmosphere-land interaction in
Cameron Highlandsa) Land-use change monitoring using satellite images.
b) Past, present and future (projected) land-use maps.
c) GIS database comprising of topography, fine resolution (sub-meter) DEM, river network andprofile; and landuse characteristics(3) Establish and improve soil erosion model/sediment transport model for accurate simulation of
sedimentation in Ringlet Reservoira) Develop soil erosion or sediment transport model to determine soil loss rate, sediment load
and reservoir bed level changes for current and future period.
b) Produce high accuracy precipitation data by integrating radar, satellite and ground gauges.
c) Estimate the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and using Infoworks RS forriver modeling.
d) Understanding relationship between precipitation, landuse change and sediment loade) Revise the storage-elevation relationship of Sultan Abu Bakar Dam(4) Projection of climate change impacts on potential risk or disaster on water resources andwater-nexus in Cameron Highlandsa) Selection of GCMs, bias-correction and downscaling.
b) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood and drought,c) Derive and develop climate change factord) Determine the impacts of climate change to water-nexus (water – energy and water –agriculture activity)e) Propose adaptation options for addressing climate change impacts(5) Develop numerical model for inflow forecasting, early warning system and Decision Support
System (DSS) for local authorities and decision-makersa) Develop a numerical inflow forecasting modelb) Develop building capacity, training and short course modules of satellite and remote sensing,floods and droughts, GIS, early warning system, and to design and develop integrated systemcorresponding to climate change impacts assessment;c) To develop Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for the proposed system.
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations
National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM), Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment – Team Leader
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) – Government Link Company (GLC)
Local authorities - Cameron Highlands District Council, State of Pahang
National Security Council (NSC)
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which has been developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with the organizations and projects as follows:(1) Establish a hydro-meteorological observation and real-time monitoring network covering the40

whole Cameron Highlands
1) Produce high accuracy precipitation data by integrating radar, satellite and ground gauges
Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia (DID), Malaysian Meteorological
Department (MMD), Department of Agriculture (DOA), TNB, JAXA, NOAA, USGS, NASA,UT2) Collect precipitation and other climatic and non-climatic parameter (groundwater,
temperature, radiation) dataset from global data archive
UNESCO/G-WADI, UNESCO-WMO/IGRAC, Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), CEOS
Water Portal, GEOWOW, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
(2) Development of integrated land-use and GIS database to monitor atmosphere-land interaction in
Cameron Highlands
1) Land-use change monitoring using satellite images
Malaysian Remote Sensing Agency (ARSM), JAXA, NOAA, USGS, NASA2) Past, present and future (projected) land-use maps
DOA, Department of Town and Country Planning Peninsular Malaysia (JPBD), local
authorities
3) GIS database comprising of topography, fine resolution DEM (sub-meter resolution), river
network and profile
USGS, Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia, JAXA
(3) Establish and improve soil erosion model/sediment transport model for accurate simulation of
sedimentation in Ringlet Reservoir
1) Determine soil loss rate, sediment load and reservoir bed level changes for current and future
period.
DID, DOA, TNB, JPBD, local authorities, UT(4) Projection of climate change impacts on potential risk or disaster on water resources andwater-nexus in Cameron Highlands
1) Selection of GCMs, bias-correction and downscaling
UT-DIAS, science communities
2) Analysis of GCM projection data for upper Bertam catchment and Cameron Highlands
CMIP3, CMIP5, UT-DIAS
3) Assessment of potential risk or disaster and effect on water-nexus.
Tenaga Nasional Berhad Research (TNBR), UNITEN, DID, MMD, DOA, DIAS
(6) Develop numerical model for inflow forecasting, early warning system and Decision Support
System (DSS) for local authorities and decision-makers
1) Assessment of climate change impact on reservoir
DID, MMD, DOA, ARSM, TNBR, UNITEN, DIAS, UT, USGS, USBR
2) Development of forecasting, early warning system and DSS
TNBR, UNITEN, DID, MMD, local communities, NGOs, DIAS, UT, USGS, USBR
5. References
MNRE (2012), National Water Resources Policy. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Malaysia
MNRE (2011), Review of the National Water Resources Study (2000-2050) and Formulation of
National Water Resources Policy. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Malaysia

41

Government of Malaysia, 2011. National Green Technology Policy. Ministry of Energy, GreenTechnology and Water
Government of Malaysia, 2010. National Policy on Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment Malaysia
Luis, J. et al., 2013. Sustainability of hydropower as source of renewable and clean energy. In IOP
Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. p. 012050.
Othman Jaafar, M. et al., 2010. Modeling the Impacts of Ringlet Reservoir on Downstream HydraulicCapacity of Bertam River Using XPSWMM in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Research Journalof Applied Sciences, 5(2), pp.47–53.
Sidek, L. et al., 2013. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron
Highlands-Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia. In IOP Conference Series: Earth andEnvironmental Science. p. 012049.
Teh, S.H., Soil Erosion Modeling Using RUSLE And GIS On Cameron Highlands, Malaysia For
Hydropower Development.
Toriman, M.E. et al., 2010. Use of InfoWork RS in modeling the impact of urbanisation on sedimentyield in Cameron Highlands Malaysia. Nat Sci, 201(8).
Wang, H. et al., 2007. Stepwise decreases of the Huanghe (Yellow River) sediment load (1950–2005):
Impacts of climate change and human activities. Global and Planetary Change, 57(3),pp.331–354.

42

Mongolia
1. Background
Mongolia is located in the middle of northeastern Eurasia between the Siberian taiga forest and theGobi desert. It is well-known that the region is associated with the largest warming rate over the past
century. The 4th assessment report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projects
that, as an perspective of the global average, rainfall likely to increase at the high latitudes, while thesubtropical region likely to become drier. Therefore, future climate of Mongolia can be highly variablein time and space with great uncertainties. Moreover, frequently-occurred droughts in the last decades
threaten the people of the country that is highly dependent on the natural resources.
To solve different complicated environmental situation in the country, the optimal, harmonized,
unified and advanced hydrological and meteorological network must be very useful under support ofdeveloped countries.
In consideration of the importance of the hydrometeorolgical service and observation network fordevelopment of the national economy and defence issues, the Soviet Union and the People’s Republicof Mongolia have signed the Joint agreement on Cooperation on Development ofHydrometeorological service in Mongolia on the 19th of July, 1935. According to the agreement, firstpermanent hydrological gauging station have been installed on the Orkhon river near Sukhbaatar town
in 17the of September of 1942. Nowadays, 134 hydrological gauging stations on 80 rivers and 15 lakes
are operating within the Hydro-meteorological service of Mongolia which is 15 times greater than
network of 1942 and 5.2 times greater if compare with hydrological network of 1960. Moreover, 4glacier monitoring stations, 30 sites for permafrost, 24 sites for groundwater regime, 74 sites forhydrobiological sampling and 142 points for water quality control and chemical sampling exist within
the above mentioned national network.
All hydrological stations are stuff gauge and hydrological monitoring network density is one
gauging station per 5500 km2 in the country scale, which several times less than WMO recommended
density. In case of the Mongolia it is needed to increase density of hydrological network twice or about
200-230 gauging station could provide for better and accurate estimation of water resources andsupply different demands on data and information. The main responsibilities of the hydrologicalnetwork in terms of water resources studies are: hydrological service (management and maintenanceof hydrological network, technology for observation and data processing, control measurement andinspections, hydrological yearbook, data base system management, flood control, short and long-term
forecasting etc.) and research studies (flood frequency and hydrograph analysis, hydrologicalmodeling, lake water balance, glacier dynamics, mass balance, observation and data processing
methodology, and hydro -biological and water quality analysis etc).
Concerning meteorological network, the first meteorological observation stations were
established in the country in 1936. Currently there are 130 meteorological stations, 186 meteorologicalposts, 6 upper-air stations, 13 solar radiation stations are operating in observation network of
NAMEM. Recently, 64 automatic meteorological stations operated since 2000 in our meteorologicalobservation network, 30 of the stations have been set up in 2011. In order to control and monitor fastdeveloping natural and climate events such as heavy rainfall, flash flooding we need to extend ourmonitoring network in space and in time with modern instrumentations.

43Fig. 1 Location of hydrological gauging stations in Mongolia
In order to predict change of water and energy cycle, the numerical model analysis is useful andindispensable. We need to use recent models such as GCM (global climate model), RCM (regional
climate model), WEB-DHM (Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model), and
SiBUC (Simple Biosphere including Urban Canopy) for studying climate change and global warmingin Mongolia.
There has been affected by global change of climate and water cycle and global warming in
Mongolia. As results of such changes observed unstable change of precipitation and increase ofoccurrence of severe drought and flood and change and shortage of water resources in the future(especially in Ulaanbaatar).
Therefore, IMHE, NAMEM need high class level instruments, advanced Automated weather
station (AWS) for River Hydrological Automatic Station (RHAS), Water and Energy Cycle Station(WECS), and Flux WECS in order to understand change in conditions of water and energy cycle andto estimate water and energy balance for elements with more accurate measurement data. Especially,
Flux WECS has a high measurement accuracy sensor to measure turbulent flux for estimating
evapotranspiration and CO2 flux with high representativeness. Furthermore, NAMEM needs to havean automatic soil moisture measurement system with the high measurement accuracy. It is very usefuland effective to install these stations in the Tuul river basin and study area on the Mongolian Plateau.
Area to be covered by the Project
Multi-scale area
A. Whole of Mongolia
B. Tuul river basin (150 x 300 km)
C. Central Mongolian Plateau (200 x 200 km)

44❐ Whole of Mongolia❐Tuul river basin（
basin（150 x 300 km ）❐Mongolian Plateau（
Plateau（２00 x 200
200 km）
km）

Fig. 2 Study areas
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
To enhance hydrological and meteorological network in Mongolia to support network’s optimization,
harmonization and unification requirements, rising from weather forecasting, hydrological andclimate modeling techniques. Namely, to provide better service, knowledge, awareness to people ofMongolia in field of environmental protection, water resources supply, weather forecasting anddisasters prediction and adaptation to the climate change.
2. Project Purpose(1) To build up an advanced observation system (with a nearly real time data acquisition system ofmonitoring elements of water and energy cycle: NAS) of water and energy cycle change byintegrating satellites (e.g., AMSR2 and SMAP) and in situ water and energy cycle stations(RHAS: River Hydrological Automatic Station and WECS: Water and Energy Cycle Station, Flux
WECS)
(2) To improve and develop NAMEM monitoring system (To upgrade some NAMEM stations)(3) To carry out intensive observations and monitoring elements of water cycle and water quality
using the advanced observation system in strong cooperation with the partly developed NAMEM
monitoring system(4) To know mechanism of unstable change of rainfall on the multi scale in space and time(considering climate change and global warming)(5) To evaluate influence of precipitation change on water/energy cycle and vegetation in study areas(including also support for the Green Development activity in Mongolia)(6) To calculate monthly and yearly more precise water balance in the Tuul river mid-upper basin

45

(7) To provide output data of simulation and prediction of water cycle using WEB-DHM and/or
SiBUC numerical model and GCM(Global Climate Model) and/or RCM (Regional Climate
Model) for supporting to build up a high accuracy prediction model of weather forecasting(8) To show preliminary models of early warning of drought and storm rainfall/flood(9) To try opening the data of observation/monitoring(10) To boost self-reliant research and development capacity (Capacity building: training course, WS,etc.)
3. Outputs(1) Advanced monitoring system of water and energy cycle with satellite observation and in situ
water cycle stations with nearly real time data acquisition system (NAS)(2) More precise monitoring by advanced AWS of NAMEM and NAS(3) Showing unstable change mechanism of rainfall on the multi scale in space and time(4) Multi scale evaluation of climate change and/or global warming(5) Early warning systems of drought and flood(6) Better and precise estimation of water resources and optimal operation system of water resources
for future(7) Prediction of water cycle and climate change considering hydrological conditions(8) High class level researchers for monitoring and analysis(9) Support for sustainable and green developments and JCM( Joint Crediting Mechanism)/BOCM(Bilateral Offset Crediting mechanism) between Japan and Mongolia
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Project Activities(1) Monitoring and Intensive observations by Advanced monitoring system to produce water andenergy cycle information with satellite observation and in situ water cycle parameters(2) Data analysis of the existing data for development and calibration of multi scale evaluation ofclimate change models(3) Numerical model studies to understand better and precise estimation of water resources, unstablechange mechanism of rainfall and prediction of water cycle and climate change consideringhydrological conditions and also to support early warning systems of drought(4) Data base for optimal operation system of water resources for future(5) Training courses and WS, to enchase self-reliant research capacity building of the Mongolianhydro-meteorological service and to provide project sustainability.
Lead Organizations• Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IMHE)
Supporting Organizations – local• National University of Mongolia (NUM)• Mongol University of Science and Technology (MUST)• Ulaanbaatar City Government
Supporting Organizations – international• Hiroshima University, Japan• Kyoto University, Japan• Hokkaido University, Japan

46

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

University of Tsukuba
Obihiro Chikusan University, Japan
Toyama Prefectural University, Japan
Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC)Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
Hydrology & Water Management Center for Central Region, Royal Irrigation Department,
Thailand
Aalborg University, Denmark
US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

47

Myanmar: Ayeyarwady and Chindwin River Basins
Background
The Ayeyarwaddy and Chindwin river basins are the most important river basins in Myanmar
which receives very high rainfalls at upper part of basin and has higher discharges. Due to its
hydrological and topographical characteristics, the lower plain suffers from frequent floods and it
affects socio-economic profile greatly. The dry zone which is the central area of Myanmar is the areavulnerable to droughts as compared to other parts of the country. This region is characterized by low
rainfall, low water availability, intense heat and degraded soil conditions, affecting social andeconomic situations of the communities living in this region. Floods and droughts are generated by the
random coincidence of several meteorological factors, but man’s use of river catchments also has an
impact upon the severity and consequences of the events. Moreover, stream flow records are reflectiveof both climatic variations over a river basin as well as changes in land use, land cover, and stream
characteristics. Understanding the effects of climate change on spatial and temporal rainfall
characteristics is therefore necessary for planning responsive measures.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction the hydrometeorological disasters, and assessment of water resources information and thepotential effects of climatic changes on the water resources
2. Project Purpose
The objectives are to demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability, to analyze the recent
experience in climate variability and extreme hydrological events, to establish the fully operational
water resources information system that will serve as an effective decision-making tool for thesustainable management of water resources of Myanmar river basins, to identify the impact of Climate
Change on the river flow in Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Rivers, to improve observational, modelingand application capacity
3. Outputs(1) Develop hydrological models for flood and drought early warning(2) Improve the real time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems(3) Develop the current status of climate change and variability in precipitation and hydrologicalevents of Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Basins(4) Develop the water resources information system for the sustainable management as an effective
decision-making tool(5) Select Global Climate Models which can perform the regional climate properly.
(6) Implement bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs
(7) Develop SWAT model in order to assess the impact of the uncertainties in future climate models(8) Improve the data for the generation of climate and socioeconomic scenarios(9) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood and drought, and water resources(10) Develop training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction and downscaling,
make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning and climate change
assessment48

4. Activities and Key Leaders
The main activities to be conducted include:(1) Installation the automatic hydrological and meteorological equipments such as automatic waterlevel gauges, automatic weather observation systems(2) Developing distributed physically-based hydrological models including training(3) Developing real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.
(4) Developing the current status of climate change and variability in precipitation and hydrologicalevents of Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Basins(5) Promote the public awareness activities for general public, water agencies and decision-makers onhydrological forecasting and warning services(6) Assessment of the current institutional capacities and the needs of the collaborating national
institutions and recommend, as appropriate, any institutional linkages and cooperative
mechanisms required for effective operation of a regional water resources information system(7) Installation of equipments such as River Surveyor for discharge measurements(8) Training of personnel of National Hydrological and Meteorological Services(9) Developing the hydrological model for water resources management(10) Selection Global Climate Models which can perform the regional climate properly.
(11) Upgrade computer hardware through the procurement of equipment and software for National
Hydrological Services and provision of technical support and training(12) Implementation bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs
(13) Developing SWAT model in order to assess the impact of the uncertainties in future climate
models(14) Improvement the data for the generation of climate and socioeconomic scenarios(15) Comparing changes of frequency and intensity of flood and drought, and water resources(16) Developing training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction anddownscaling, make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning
Lead Organization• Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar

49

Nepal: Bagmati River Basin
Background
Nepal has proposed two river basins namely Bagmati River Basin as demonstration basin andNarayani River Basin as CCAA study basin. Bagmati basin is a basin of national priority since capital
city Kathmandu as well as number of national heritage places is located in this basin. Therefore,
Bagmati basin as demonstration basin has been selected for 2nd phase of AWCI and Project Design
Matrix (PDM) is prepared for this basin.
Bagmati River Basin
Bagmati River is a medium river of Nepal with drainage area of 3700 Km2. It originates from
Shivapuri Hill (2731 m) and flows down to south through Kathmandu valley up to Indo – Nepal border.
Nakhhu, Kulekhani, Kokhajor, Marin and Chandi rivers are its major tributaries. Flood damages;
landslides, bank erosion and water pollution are acute problems in the river basin. There are 21
numbers of meteorological stations and two hydrometric stations within and around the basin.
Dense human settlement area like Kathmandu, Capital of Nepal is located along the bank of thisriver. The upper reach of the river basin is facing acute problem of water pollution, landslides andbank erosion whereas the tail reach of the river basin is facing problem of bank erosion, river bed
rising and flooding and inundation.
The comprehensive atmospheric observation system in this river basin is needed to be establishedto enhance the prediction of meteorological and hydrological disasters.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of meteorological and hydrological disasters and effective use of water resources in
Bagmati basin.
2. Project Purpose
There are severe problems to be addressed in the Bagmati river basin:
Flood water management system,
Maintaining minimum regular flow particularly in dry season period,
Water quality improvement,
Water resources management,Drought impact on food security.
Climate change makes the venerable situations more critical. To address these issues, we need to:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability(3) Assess climate change impacts on glacier retreat, floods, droughts and water-nexus(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity(6) Contribute to the national climate change adaptation policy
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observations

50a) Prototype near-real time rainfall observation and data dissemination systems by coupling
satellite and in-situ measurements which is used as inputs into flood prediction.
b) Develop comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation data archive for improving
monitoring capability of water cycle and developing hydrological models to be used for early
warning.
c) Develop long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archive which is used forclimate change analysis climate projection model bias correction.
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capabilitya) Develop hydrological models for converting meteorological data to hydrological information.
b) Prototype real-time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexusa) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
b) Implement bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs.
c) Develop socio-economic data archived) Compare changes of frequency and intensity of flood, drought and water-nexus.
(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systemsa) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
b) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules of satellite remote sensing, modeling, bias correction anddownscaling, make design of training courses on integrated observations, early warning andclimate change assessment, and offer the courses.
b) Promote secondary educational programs in collaboration with universities.
(6) Contribute to the national climate change adaptation policya) Enhancement of crop water requirement estimation, evapo-transpiration, design discharge
estimation, estimation of dependable discharge for hydro power generationb) Application of models to estimate design flood discharge for hydraulic structures and flood
water management
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations

Ministry of Irrigation (DOI, DWIDP)
Ministry of Urban Development (Bagmati River Basin Improvement Project)Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which has been developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with the organizations and projects as follows:(1) Demonstrate quantitative and qualitative improvement of water cycle observation
1) Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility and sharing the data byInternet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to be disseminated to wide
communities
WMO/HyCOS, JAXA, DIAS
2) In-situ and satellite observation data archive
WMO/HyCOS, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, DIAS
3) Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM

51

model outputs.
WMO/HyCOS, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, DIAS
(2) Demonstrate flood and drought early warning capability1) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth.
DIAS, science communities
2) Prototype real-time data integration systems for satellite data bias correction, hydrologicalmodeling including data assimilation and information dissemination.
UNESCO-IFI, DIAS
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
DIAS, science communities
2) Bias correction and downscaling
DIAS, science Communities
3) Socio-economic data archive4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
DIAS, science communities(4) Prototype data and information integration and sharing systems
1) Develop an integrated water portal for improving data accessibility and data sharing.
CEOS Water Portal, DIAS
2) Prototype a data integration and analysis and information dissemination system
CEOS Water Portal, DIAS
(5) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity
1) Develop training modules and design and implement training courses
UNESCO, ITC, UNU, UTokyo,
2) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities.
ITC, UNU, UTokyo, TU(6) Contribute to the national climate change adaptation policy
1) Enhancement of crop water requirement estimation, evapo-transpiration, design discharge
estimation, estimation of dependable discharge for hydro power generation
DOI, DOA, TU, DWIDP, NEA, KU
2) Application of models to estimate design flood discharge for hydraulic structures and flood
water management
DOI, DOA, TU, DWIDP, NEA, KU
5. Recent Ongoing Activities in context of Climate Change prospective• Incorporation of Mainstreaming of climate change in Irrigation Policy 2013;• Establishment of Focal Desk for climate change in Ministry of Environment, Science andTechnology. TA 7984: Mainstreaming of Climate Change Risk Management in Development
study has been carrying out by MOEST with various line agencies and DoI is one of them.
• Proposed to improve discharge estimation method for un-gauged catchment under recently
kicked off Water Resources Preparatory Facilities Project (WRPPF) financed by ADB;
• Study of Impact of Climate Change in Kalleritar Irrigatn Project by DoI with UNDP, ADB, YALE
UNIVERSITY, USAID.
• Adaptation to Global change Agriculture practices: A case study of Indrawati Basin Nepal by DoI

52

•
•
•

with support from UNESCO-IHE and AITInstitutional set up in DoI to take care of climate change and social issues and build its capacity
under WRPPF
Climate Change impact study for Koshi Basin by Water Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS)
Digital Inventory of Irrigation system and updating Irrigation Master Plan under WRPPF

Documents prepared by The Government of Nepal with regards to Climate Change• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), 2010
• Climate Change Policy 2011
• Local Adaptation Program of Action 201253

Pakistan
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Improving water cycle observations and prediction of meteorological and hydrological disasters inPakistan
2. Project Purpose
Specific issues/needs in country:• Improve monitoring capacity in the country• Data access and sharing• Distributed hydrological modeling to improve forecasting of floods/drought• Climate change impact assessment on drought, floods and GLOF
To address these issues, we need to:(1) Demonstrate improvement of water cycle observations.
(2) Demonstrate capability of flood and drought forecast and early warning.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts, water-nexus and food security (agriculture, inparticular)
3. Outputs(1) Demonstrate improvement of water cycle observations.
1) Prototype near-real time rainfall observation and data dissemination systems by coupling
satellite and in-situ measurements which is used as inputs into flood prediction and drought
advisories.
2) Develop/improve comprehensive in-situ and satellite observation data archive for improving
monitoring capability of water cycle.
3) Develop/improve long-term and comprehensive climate observation data archives, which areused for climate change assessment, climate projections and model bias corrections.
4) Improve observational, modeling and application capacity in the country.
(2) Demonstrate capability of flood and drought forecast and early warning
1) Develop hydrological model (WEB-DHM) for converting meteorological data tohydrological information.
2) Develop inundation model and update flood hazard maps.
3) Couple hydrological model with a crop model.
4) Develop and disseminate agro-climate predictions (soil moisture, crop water requirement,
timings of field operations) for crop water management
5) Develop a Decision Support System (DSS) by using observations and model outputs.
6) Prototype real-time data management, modeling and information dissemination systems.
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-Food nexus (agriculture, inparticular)
1) Select GCMs which can express the regional climate properly.
2) Apply bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of the selected GCMs by54

Regional Climate Models.
3) Develop/improve socio-economic data archive4) Analyse changing climatic extreme’s trend in terms of frequency and intensity of flood,
drought.
5) Propose improved methods/strategies for early warning systems and workable adaptation
measures4. Activities and Key Leaders(1) To develop long-term climate trends and short-term climate variability
Methodology/Activities
1) Improve hydro-met observational, modeling and application capacity in the country2) Improvement of near-real time rainfall observation and data dissemination systems3) Coupling satellite and in-situ measurements of cryosphere to be input to hydrological models
4) Develop/improve hydrometeorological data archive to analyze the past behavior and recent
trends for monitoring capability of water cycle.
5) Integrate climate observation/model data archives, which are used for climate change
assessment, climate projections and model bias correction.
(2) To improve cryosphere monitoring using in-situ observations and remote sensing data for better
understanding of its dynamics and spatial variability
Major Activities
1) The seasonal snow cover dynamics, the typology of glaciers (e.g. debris covered, debris free),spatial characteristics and cloud systems dynamics etc. will preferably be derived fromrespective satellite systems and flagship stations.
2) Updating/refinement of glaciers inventory of using high resolution RS data
3) Selection of benchmark glaciers and their monitoring for long-term glacio-hydrologicalcharacteristics
4) Development of high resolution Remote Sensing based Digital Elevation Model data sets forapplication to the distributed hydrological model
5) High resolution topographic data sets (grid resolution < 30m) for spatial dynamics of seasonal
snow cover and topography-dependent characteristics of glaciers.
6) Promote field measurements on glaciers for mass balance, surface velocity, changes ofmoraine/terminus and behavior of ablation and accumulation zones.
(3) Distributed hydrological modeling to improve forecasting of Floods/Drought modeling
Outcome
Improved current and future water availability and demand scenarios for policy makers and water
resource managers leading to better development planning and management
Outputs
1) Improved hydro-meteorological data collection system
2) Better understanding and representation of hydrological and meteorologicalprocesses/dynamics in the upper Indus Basin
3) Operational basin and sub-basin hydrological and water demand models to analyze the water
availability and demand scenarios

55Activities
1) Develop distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) for hydrological forecasting (water
availability, flood. Droughts)
2) Couple hydrological-crop-economic model for improved understanding of socioeconomic
impacts of water cycle variability.
3) Strengthening of field based monitoring of hydro-meteorological variables at high elevationareas4) Hydrological modeling to derive water availability and demand scenarios at the basin,
sub-basin and catchment scales.
5) Quantification of contributions of rainfall, snow-melt, glacial-melt to runoff throughhydrological modeling6) Impact of climate change on each runoff component (rainfall, snow-melt, glacial-melt,
permafrost-melt)7) Future water demand and availability scenarios based on demographic scenarios, increased
crop water requirement etc.
(4) Risk assessment of climate induced hazards Climate change impact assessment on drought, floods
and GLOF
Activities
1) Selection of suitable GCMs and assessing their data sets.
2) Bias correction and downscaling (statistical- and dynamic-) of GCMs by RCMs.
3) Collection of socio-economic data and its archiving4) Identification of changes in frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological extremes.
5) Land use changes, Inundation modeling and revision of flood hazard maps
6) Updation of inventory of lakes, GLOFs and promote indigenous knowledge to manage
GLOF risks
7) Investigate the adaptive capacity to adverse climate change impacts due to lack of technicalknowhow and low financial resources(5) Impact of hydrologic extremes on food security and socio-economic conditions of community
Outputs
1) Assessment of the future water availability for agriculture under different climate scenarios;2) Improved knowledge about the links between climate change and water-related issues inagricultural production at basin and sub-basin scale;3) A set of adaptation options (anticipatory and reactive) proposed to reduce the vulnerability tofloods and droughts.
Methodologies / Activities
1) Study/simulate climate change impacts on agriculture and local crop production pattern2) Simulate evapo-transpiration and irrigation water requirement of major crops (wheat, rice,
cotton, sugar cane)3) Assess the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and crop production4) Estimation of crop water requirement under future climate change scenarios5) DevelopmentofaDecision
Support
System(DSS)
incorporating
crop-water-climate-socioeconomic scenarios.
6) To identify and propose potential adaptation measures

56

Lead Organizations
 Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF) National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad Foreman Christian College Charted (FCC) University, Lahore Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Lahore Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad
In addition to the Lead Organizations’ capacity which has been developed, we will take following
actions in collaboration with the organizations and projects as follows:(1) Demonstrate improvement of water cycle observation
1) Transmitting rain gauge data to the Lead Organization Data Facility and sharing the data byInternet for producing bias-corrected satellite-based rainfall map to be disseminated to wide
communities
NASA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
2) Satellite observation data archive
NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal, DIAS, AWCI3) Climate data archive at least past 20 years which correspond to the availability of the GCM
and RCM model outputs.
Reanalysis (ECMWF, NCEP, JMA), NASA, NOAA, JAXA, CEOS Water Portal,
NASA-SERVIR, DIAS, AWCI4) Improve observational, modeling and application capacitya) Develop training modules and design/implement training courses
UNU, UN-CECAR, UTokyo, AIT, JAXAb) Promote secondary educational program in collaboration with universities
UNU, UN-CECAR, UTokyo(2) Demonstrate capability of flood and drought forecasting and early warning
1) Develop distributed physically-based hydrological models including simulation ability ofevapotranspiration, soil moisture, ground water and vegetation growth (WEB-DHM) for the
Indus basin.
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
2) Develop inundation model(s) and update flood hazard maps
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
3) Couple hydrological model with a crop and economic models
AWCI, DIAS, science communities
4) Prototype real-time data integration systems for hydrological modeling including data
assimilation and information dissemination.
PMD, NASA-SERVIR, DIAS
(3) Assess climate change impacts on floods, droughts and water-nexus
1) Selection of GCMs which can express the regional climate.
AWCI, DIAS, PMD, GCISC, PARC, science communities
2) Bias correction and downscaling

57

AWCI, DIAS, PMD, GCISC, science communities
3) Socio-economic data archive
GLOWASIS, Statistical Division, Planning Division, SDPI, FCC
4) Assessment of the changes of flood, drought and water-nexus.
AWCI, DIAS, WAPDA, PMD, Irrigation départements, FFC, science communities

58

Sri Lanka: Kelani River Basin
Project Title: Flood mitigation in Greater Colombo region
Background
The Kelani River is the second largest River in Sri Lanka which flows to the west coast from thecentral hills through Colombo city. Extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent in Sri
Lanka and are attributed to climate change and the Kelani River basin is one of the most vulnerable
river basins for floods and costly flood damages.
Topographically, the Kelani River basin can be distinctly characterized as upper and lower basins.
The mountainous upper basin, that lies upstream of Hanwella river gauging station, is about 1740 km2
and ridges rise beyond 2000 m above Mean Sea Level with several peaks. The lower basin,
downstream of Hanwella, which is on a flat-terrain, is about 500 km2.The upper basin is mainly
covered with the vegetation types such as tea, rubber, grass and forest while the lower basin is heavily
urbanized. The lower basin of the Kelani River which is vulnerable to frequent floods.
Flood discharge and inundation along the Kelani River reach below Hanwella were simulated by
the application of two-dimensional flood simulation model (FLO-2D) to 250m x 250m grids covering
the lower basin. Inflow hydrograph at Hanwella was estimated by using the Hydrologic Engineering
Center – Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model under identified future extreme rainfall
events from the rainfall downscaled up to 2099 under the A2 and B2 scenarios (De Silva et al).
Discharge at Hanwella gauging station was calculated by using HEC-HMS.Annual maximum
daily discharge will be increase from 500-1000 m3/s range to 2000-2500 m3/s range from 2010th
decade to 2090th decade under both A2 and B2 scenarios. FLO-2D software was used to compute
flood hydrographs and generate inundation maps in the lower Kelani basin and corresponding torainfalls of 100 year and 50 year return periods and hazard vulnerability and risk factors were
calculated to evaluate the exposure to disaster. Colombo, Thimbirigasyaya, Kesbewa and Sri
Jayawardanapura Kotte DS divisions were the high risk areas for inundation correspond to 50 year
return period rainfalls under both A2 and B2 scenarios. The risk expands to Kelaniya, Kolonnawa,
Wattala and Kaduwela DS divisions for 100 year return period rainfall under A2 and B2 scenarios.
According to the investigation, by introducing a levee along the river and detention basins
together would reduce the average risk over the catchment about 65% and 40%, correspond to 50 year
return period rainfall under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and 32% and 25%, correspond to 100
year return period rainfall under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively (De Silva et al)..
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of future flood inundation damage in the lower Kelani River basin
2. Project Purpose
The climate change impact downscaling from GCMs carried out show an increase trend in extreme
rainfall events in the Kelani River basin. The lower Kelani basin is a plain area and has highpopulation and also contains the Greater Colombo area with high economic input. The project
purposes are to provide structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce flood inundation
risk in the lower Kelani basin.

59

To address these issues, it is necessary to:(1) Carry out critical assessment of floods and inundation risk in the lower basin under climatechange(2) Propose structural and nonstructural flood mitigation options and investigate the best options
considering societal benefit(3) Implement of item (2) above
3. Outputs(1) Critical assessment of floods and inundation risk in the lower basin under climate changea) Future probable rainfall and flood inundation extents under ongoing climate change based on
downscaling of GCM resultsb) Socio-economic impact of the estimated floods(2) Proposal of structural and nonstructural flood mitigation options and investigate the best options
considering societal benefita) Awareness of flood risk, incorporation/mainstreaming of non-structural measures to designand construction practices to reduce disasters/flood damageb) Various structural measures to flood control/flood damage/ reduce disasters. Long term andshort term solutions.
(3) Implementation of item (2) abovea) Implementation Plan and structural components/ measures, and reduction in flood inundation
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations• Ministry of Water Resources (Irrigation Department of Sri Lanka)• Meteorology Department of Sri Lanka• Ministry of Disaster Management (Disaster Mitigation Centre)• Ministry of Urban Development (Urban Development Authority)
Activities and collaborators from international community(1) Critical assessment of floods and inundation risk in the lower basin under climate change
1) Using GCM downscaled data by using recent advancement of model outputs anddownscaling tools.
AWCI & DIAS, GEOSS, WB, ADB
2) Development of a socio-economic data base of the low lying areas of the basin
UN Organizations, Habitat(2) Proposal of structural and nonstructural flood mitigation options and investigate the best options
considering societal benefit
1) Refined two-dimensional flood modeling for identification of vulnerable areas and risk
factors
AWCI, UTokyo, JAXA, ADB, WB, JICA, KOICA
2) Awareness programmes to stake holders on potential increased risk
ADPC3) Short term solutions for disaster reduction

60

a.

Warning systems based on real-time weather predictions and flood modeling
JAXA, ISPRO(India), GEOSS, DIAS, JICA, KOICA, USAID..
4) Long term solutions for disaster reduction(3) Implementation of item (2) above
1) Introduction of non-structural measures through planning agencies
JICA, KOICA, USAID, ODA, MDG
2) Planning and implementation of structural measures- alternative proposal and evaluation
JICA, KOICA, USAID, ODA, WB, ADB, MDG

61

Thailand: Upper Ping River Basin
Project Title: Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for Upper Ping River Basin using
Hydro-Meteorological Models and Remote Sensing Techniques.
Background
Over the last decade (2001-2010), more than 891 people died in floods and landslides withcasualties of 216 in 2002, 446 in 2006, and 229 in 2010 (Wongruang, 2010). Flooding and landslides
cause widespread damage and suffering. Bank of Thailand (2011) reported that in 2011, Thailand
suffered major flooding with 63 provinces directly involved affecting 12.8 million people, involving
698 deaths and 3 missing presumed dead. More than 24 million hectares of agricultural land wasdamaged as well as most of the industrial estates in the central part of the country. Economic losses
were estimated at 45 thousand million dollars. Flash flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall
in the head watershed overloaded the soil carrying capacity, as its ability to absorb the heavy rainfall
was reduced as result of the conversion of the hill slopes from forest to agriculture.

Mae Wang Watershed(GEOSS-pilot project)

Figure 1: Upper Ping River Basin and Mae Wang as its sub-watershed62

Since deep in Thai history, general broad scale flooding and flash flooding have caused damage toboth life and property. Engineering structures and also non-structural measures can be used to reduce
flood damage. One of the non-engineering measures is a flood warning system that can immediately
inform the people living downstream to take precautions before the floodwaters reach them. With thissystem, the people can make a decision on when the flood discharge is likely to arrive and how muchtime they have to evacuate to safe locations.
From 2009 to 2013, Thailand has been researching and collecting hydro-metrological data under
the GAME-T project and has installed more monitoring stations in the Mae Wang watershed under a
GEOSS project (Figure 1) and these are now operational. Junkhiaw et al. (2013) used data from the
GAME-T and GEOSS projects to develop models and an early warning system for the Mae Wang
watershed. The model can be used for early warning prediction as well. The researchers have to importdata, which is used in the models, and the outputs are then applied for forecasting and early warning
decision making in the Upper Ping River Basin which is larger than the Mae Wang River Basin (MaeWang is 543 sq.km and Upper Ping is 22,135.36 sq.km).
The Upper Ping river basin area covers 22,135.36 sq.km and consists of 12 sub-watersheds. The
Mae Wang watershed (the pilot project of GEOSS) is part of the Nam Mae Khan watershed and issubjected to regular flooding as the Mae Chaem and Nam Li watersheds are, in the Chiang Mai and
Lamphun provinces, respectively. The model and data, including an automatic climatic station
protocol, GAME-T and GEOSS will be used to develop a model that is accurate for this large basin.

Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Increase the accuracy and efficiency of the flood and landslide warning process using hydrologicalmodeling and satellite data.
2. Project Purpose• To study the structure and function of the basin, which is related to the hydrologicalcharacteristics and causes of the water disaster.
• To select the appropriate models and satellite data application for forecasting and warning inUpper Ping River Basin.
• To prepare the database and services to be available online.
3. Outputs(1) Based on the study of the structure and functions of the basin, which is related to the hydrologicalcharacteristics and causes of the water disaster, the following outputs will be produced:a) Status of the Upper Ping River basin areas including the structure and functions that control
the amount of water, duration of irrigation and water quality.
b) Patterns of land use change.
c) Impact of land use changes on hydrological characteristics of the watershed.
d) Problems from flooding and landslides in the watershed.
(2) The selection of the appropriate models and satellite data application to implement a forecasting
and warning system in the Upper Ping River Basin will produce:

63a) An appropriate model for a large basin in Thailand recruited from various models such asmodels from AWCI, ICHARM, SWAT or/and other models which can then be applied toforecasting and warning in the Upper Ping River Basin.
b) A model to estimate rainfall from satellite imagery (from NOAA, NASA, JAXA, GISTDA orother) that can be calibrated using measured rainfall data from Royal Irrigation Department
stations.
(3) To prepare the database and services to be available online.
a) The GIS and satellite database for the basin can be downloaded for no charge.
b) A website will be developed that provides access to the meteorological and hydrological data
for the watershed.
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations• Burapha University (BUU)
 Faculty of Geoinformatics• Ministry of Agricultural and Cooperative Royal Irrigation Department (RID)• Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Public Organization(GISTDA)• Kasetsart University(KU) Faculty of Forestry• Khon Kaen University (KKU)
 Faculty of Agriculture• University of Tokyo• Kochi University of Technology
Potential collaborators(1) Watershed analysis
1) Watershed status (Structure and Functions)• Faculty of Geoinformatics, BUU• Faculty of Forestry, KU• Royal Irrigation Department (RID)• Kochi University of Technology2) Land use changes and effects• Faculty of Agriculture , KKU• Faculty of Forestry, KU• GISTDA• Kochi University of Technology
3) Relationship between watershed characteristics and hydrography• Faculty of Geoinformatics, BUU• Royal Irrigation Department (RID)• University of Tokyo(2) Model selection and training641) Selecting and training for the hydro-metrological models• University of Tokyo• Kochi University of Technology• Royal Irrigation Department
2) Satellite data and application to predict rainfall and soil moisture• GISTDA• Faculty of Geoinformatics , BUU• University of Tokyo• Kochi University of Technology(3) Data sharing and data services
1) Database and Data sharing system• Faculty of Geoinformatics, BUU• GISTDA• University of Tokyo• Kochi University of Technology
2) Training and Services• Faculty of Geoinformatics, BUU• GISTDA
Key Leader
Researcher/ Co-advisors:
Project Leader
Dr. Sutep Junkhiaw

Thailand:
Mr. Thada Sukaphunaphun

Prof. Dr. Nipon Tangtham

Asst. Prof. Dr. Wirogana
Ruenghrathuengsuka
Asst. Prof. Dr. Anond Sanidvongs
Ms. Mallika Sisutham

Japan:
Prof. Dr. Toshio KOIKE

Faculty of Geoinformatics,
Burapha University , Thailand
Email: sutep@buu.ac.th
Royal Irrigation Department
Ministry of Agricultural and Cooperation
Email: thada999@yahoo.com
Faculty of Forestry,
Kasetsart University
Email: ffornpt@ku.ac.thVice President of Burapha University
Email: wirogana@buu.ac.th
Executive Director of GISTDA
Email: anond@gistda.or.th
Faculty of Agriculture,
Khon Kaen University

University of Tokyo
Email: tkoike@hydra.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp

65Asst. Prof. Dr. Pongsak Suttinon

Kochi University of Technology
Email: pongsak.suttinon@kochi-tech.ac.jp

Contributors:• Burapha University (BUU)• Royal Irrigation Department (RID)• Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Public Organization):
GISTDA• Kasetsart University (KU)
• Khon Kean University (KKU)• University of Tokyo• Kochi University of Technology
References:
Bank of Thailand. 2012. Thailand floods 2011: Impact and recovery from business survey. Bangkok.
Available from: [www.bot.or.th/EconomicConditions/
Thai/BLP/Documents/ThaiFloodSurvey2011_eng.pdf]. [Sourced: January 17, 2013].
Junkhiaw, S., W. Arunpraparat, N. Tangtham, A. Sanidvong, and C. Yawudhi. 2013. Decision Support
System for a Flash Flood and Landslide Warning System in an Upper Watershed. Thai
Journal of Forestry. Vol.32, No.1 pp.35-50
Wongruang, P. 2010. Special report: Master plan looks good, on paper. Bangkok Post. Sunday ,November 21,2010, pp.3-5

66Uzbekistan: Chirchiq - Akhangaran River Basins
1. BackgroundUzbekistan is prone to climate-related disasters such as floods, mudflows and landslides, drought.
Climate change is expected to make the country even more vulnerable. Uzbekistan is already facing a
number of serious ecological problems related to changes in the water cycle aggravated by negative
impacts of global warming.
The Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basins has a great strategic importance for Uzbekistan. There are
two rivers - Chirchiq (161 km) and Akhangaron (223 km). The basin has 67 lakes with different typesof origin, 19 hydropower plants, the population - more than 2.5 million people.
The whole area of Chirchiq-Akhangaran river basin occupies the north-eastern part of Uzbekistan,
has a great diversity of landforms and features in the distribution of precipitation and humidity. The
main power source of the rivers of the district are considered melt water seasonal snow cover, lesssignificant volume of water ice, and rain water. Snowmelt induced runoff rivers Chirchiq Akhangaran river basins were 60-80% of the total runoff.
Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basins is well studied, meteorological and hydrological stations
located in the basin have long continuous data series, which is very important for the research. In the
Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basin and in neighboring countries there are many potentially dangerous
and developing objects - glacial lakes and outbreaking lakes, and monitoring are difficult because of
inaccessibility. Objects themselves are often small in size but have an enormous potential threat in theevent of their destruction.
Project Design Matrix (PDM)
1. Overall Goal
Reduction of hydrometeorological disasters in the Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin considering
climate change and water cycle changes.
2. Project Purpose
In accordance with research it was concluded that, in relation to climate change in the ChirchikAkhangaran river basin, main issues are:
• Reduction of snow cover, increasing seasonal snow line;• Degradation of glaciers;• Reduction of available water resources;• Strengthening of natural variability and the overall trend increase in extreme water availability inyears.
At the same time there is a lack of information and methodological support not only for the country but
also the neighboring countries, and thus it is necessary to better ensure the data. Proceeding from theabove, we need to conduct research in the following areas:(1) Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources;(2) Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basin from the effects of dangeroushydrometeorological phenomena;(3) Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena;(4) Development of adaptive strategies and measures.

67

3. Outputs(1) Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources:a) Assessment of the dynamics of glaciers in the upper Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basin.
b) Assessment of the dynamics of high mountain outbursting lakes, due to the fact that theretreat of the glaciers - a phenomenon that can cause a breakout of glacial lakes that threaten
serious flooding in the lower reaches of the rivers.
c) Creating an archive of high resolution satellite data for system monitoring high mountainoutbursting lakes. Satellite images have many advantages, they can be used to monitor the
potential danger of objects located in the territory of neighboring countries, which is very
important for the study basin.
(2) Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basin from the effects of dangeroushydrometeorological phenomena.
a) Analysis of the current variability of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena (probability ofoccurrence, duration of hazardous period by the territory) and their after-effects forvulnerability assessment.
b) Selection of methods of an estimation of vulnerability of water resources of a Chirchiq Akhangaran river basin in conditions of climatic change.
c) Future risk assessment in line with the Climate Scenarios and application of the advanced
methods and tools.
d) Generation of vulnerability and hazard zonation maps and provide information for planningdisaster mitigation measures(3) Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomenaa) The development of hydrological models.
b) Creation of an Archive of satellite remote sensing data for the characteristics of thehydrological modeling.
c) The creation and maintenance of an information database.
(4) Development of adaptive strategies and measuresa) Since it is not possible to completely avoid natural hazards like floods, mudslides, etc., youneed to build capacity for adaptation related to prevention (keeping), the softening effect(protection) and a reduction of damage (insurance).
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Leading organizations
NIGMI, Uzhydromet.
In addition, collaboration with following international organizations will be sought:(1) Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources
WMO/HyCOS – ARAL HyCOS, ESA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
(2) Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchiq - Akhangaran river basin from the effects of dangeroushydrometeorological phenomena
WMO/HyCOS – ARAL HyCOS, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC(3) Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena
DIAS, JACA, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC, UTokyo, ESA, NOAA, JAXA
(4) Development of adaptive strategies and measures
WMO/ARAL HyCOS, JACA, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC, UTokyo

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Vietnam: Thai Binh River Basin
Project Title: Utilizing satellite data, numerical rainfall forecasts, combining with groundobservations in flood forecasting for the Thai Binh river system

Background
Despite exists several national and international projects which are conducted on flood forecastingin Vietnam, Thai Binh river system is less invested and flood forecasting accuracy and lead time forthis river system have still a lot of limitations.
The Thai Binh River system is second big river system after the Red river system in the Northern
Vietnam with basin area 17580km2 (to Pha Lai station) and length of main stream 1650km. Available
near real time data for flood forecasting purpose from upstream to Pha Lai come only from 35 rain
gauges, 14 water level gauges and 2 discharge gauges. For the Thai Binh river system now exists only
12-24 hour flood forecast with low accuracy because of data lack and without of advanced forecasting
technique. Development of a flood forecasting and warning system using satellite data is highly
expected, especially for developing countries where the collection of real time data on rainfall andwater level in river basins faces on technical and financial difficulties.
By using rainfall data from earth observation satellites (EOS) and implementing runoff
calculation and flood prediction, combining with numerical rainfall forecast and ground observationhydrological data, it is possible to promote the development and improvement in flood forecasting andwarning system on river basin level. It is planes to utilize satellite data like GSMaP_NRT from JAXA
(Japan), numerical rainfall forecasts like ECMWF, GSM; combining with hydro-meteorologicalground observation data in flood forecasting for the Thai Binh River system. For this purpose, theIntegrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) is used for calculating runoff on upstream sub-basins
without hydro-meteorological data or with insufficient hydrological and geophysical information.
This runoff is considered as inputs or lateral inflows into downstream mainstream. For downstream
where there are enough ground data, the hydrodynamic model Mike 11 (DHI) used for flood
forecasting. The forecasting system will increase lead time to 2-day flood forecast with improved andacceptable accuracy for the Thai Binh river system. It is reliable with development purpose and plan of
National Hydro-Meteorological Service.
1. Overall Goal
Effective utilizing available satellite data in flood forecasting
2. Project Purpose
Utilizing all available satellite data combining with numerical rainfall forecasts and groundobservations in operational flood forecasting for Vietnam rivers (in case of the Thai Binh river system
To address these issues, we need to carry out:
(1) Data collection(2) Data processing and archiving(3) Calibration, verification of hydrological model (IFAS)(4) Calibration, verification of hydraulic model (Mike DHI)
(5) Calibration, verification of forecasting system by combining hydrological model (IFAS) andhydraulic model (Mike DHI)
(6) Final reporting69

3. Outputs(1) Two-day flood forecast for main rivers of the Thai Binh river system(2) Technical transfer to local forecasters at regional and provincial levels to operate the flood
forecasting system.
4. Activities and Key Leaders
Lead Organizations
•
•
•
•

•
•

National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS), Ministry of Natural Resources andEnvironment (MONRE), Executing Agency
The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Implementing Agency
International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO(UNESCO-ICHARM), Technical support, advanced training of IFAS
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Satellite data provider, Financial support
from JAXA where possible (travel, per diem... for experts, training from ICHARM, kick-off
meeting, workshop attending etc...)Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre for North-East (RHM CNE), Ground Data provider and
End-UserStanding Office (SO) of Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC), End-User

Activities(1) Data collection
1) Available satellite data from JAXA such as DEM, Land use or Land cover (new data after
2009, preferable of 2011 or 2012 year), GSMaP_NRT for last 6 years (2008-2013) from FTP
serverCollaborators: JAXA
2) DEM, Land use or Land cover, river network, GIS products. from Vietnamese Mapping
organization
Collaborators: Department of Remote Sensing - MONRE
3) Hydro-meteorological ground data: rainfall, water level, discharge for the Thai Binh river
system from 2008-2013
Collaborators: Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre for North-East of Vietnam (RHM
CNE)4) Geographical data: cross sections, hydraulic constructions, lakes, reservoirs… in the basin
Collaborators: Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre for North-East of Vietnam (RHM
CNE)
5) Numerical Rainfall forecast from GSM, ECMWF
Collaborators: Research and Development Division -NCHMF
6) Reporting(2) Data processing and archiving
1) Processing DEM, Land use, Land cover to build correct basin boundary, river network
2) Processing and archiving hydro-meteorological and geographical data in required format forhydrological and hydraulic models
3) Reporting(3) Calibration, verification of hydrological model (IFAS)

70

1) Set up IFAS model for the Thai Binh river basin2) Calibration of IFAS model parameters, collaborator:
Collaborator: ICHARM
3) Verification of IFAS model4) Reporting(4) Calibration, verification of hydraulic model (Mike DHI)
1) Set up Mike model for the Thai Binh basin2) Calibration of Mike model parameters
3) Verification of Mike model4) Reporting(5) Calibration, verification of forecasting system by combining hydrological model (IFAS) andhydraulic model (Mike DHI)
1) Set up forecasting system of hydrological-hydraulic models
2) Calibration of forecasting system
3) Verification of forecasting system
4) Reporting(6) Final reporting.

71