GEOSS Joint Asia-Africa Water Cycle Symposium

GEOSS
Water Cycle Integrator

Toshio Koike
The Univeristy of Tokyo
Ito International Research Center, Ito Hall, University of Tokyo, Hongo Campus
25 – 27 November 2013

Regime Shift
Extremes

ClimateSystemFlood/Drought

Water
Cycle

Water
Resources
Management
SystemWater Cycle Integrator
ModelsWeather
Prediction

Seasonal Prediction

ClimatePrediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction
SatelliteVis.
IR

Data Assimilation
River Flow
Water
Cycle
Model

Snow

Evapotranspiration

MWSoilMoisture
Gravity

IWRM

RainfallClimate Change
Adaptation

GroundWaterVal.
Rainfall

River
Flow

Soil
Moisture
In-situ Data

GroundWater

Water
QualityWater Cycle Integrator
ModelsWeatherPrediction

Seasonal Prediction

ClimatePrediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction
SatelliteVis.
IR

Data Assimilation
River Flow
WaterCycle
Model

Snow

Evapotranspiration

MWSoilMoisture
Gravity

IWRM

RainfallClimate Change
Adaptation

GroundWater
Val.
Rainfall

River
Flow

Soil
Moisture
In-situ Data

GroundWater

Water
QualityExtremely wetmoderately wet

1.5

severely wet

Near normal

Near normal

1.0σ2) Normalize by calculating SA

SA = Z =moderately dry

xtransformed =x −µseverely dry1) Transform the best-fit distribution
pattern into a standardized distribution

Extremely dry

Drought Quantification:
The Standard Anomaly Index-2.0 -1.5-1.002.0x transformed − x transformed
Standard deviations from themeanSource: [ Mckee et al., 1993]

σ transformed

σ = var(x)var( x ) = ∫ ( x − µ ) 2 f ( x )dxµ = ∫ xf ( x)dx
Jaranilla-Sanchez, P. A., et al. (2011),
Water Resour. Res., in press.

Meteorologicaldrought
Agricultural
drought

Hydrologicaldrought

Spatial SA: Philippines

Seasonal Drought Prediction
SA FROMOBSERVEDDISCHARGE

MonthSA FROMFORECASTDISCHARGE

June-0.954-1.010455

July-1.30505-1.61425

August-0.4937-2.41276

0.50May Jun. Jul. Aug.

SA-0.5-1-1.5

From Observation
From Forecast-2-2.5-3
Jan-83Apr-83

Jul-83

Close enough,drought conditions
can be forecasted

Seasonal Drought Prediction
MonthsYear

1stObserved

2ndSFC

Observed

3rdSCF

Observed

1983

1991

1997

1999-2000

ARROW Legends: red= drought; green=normal; blue=wet
e.g. increase towards drought conditions

SCF

Water Cycle Integrator
ModelsWeatherPrediction

Seasonal Prediction

ClimatePrediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction
SatelliteVis.
IR

Data Assimilation
River Flow
Water
Cycle
Model

Snow

Evapotranspiration

MWSoilMoisture
Gravity

IWRM

RainfallClimate Change
Adaptation

GroundWater
Val.
Rainfall

River
Flow

Soil
Moisture
In-situ Data

GroundWater

Water
QualityMejerda River
Precipitation Oct – Jan (1981-2000)
GPCP

10

bccr_bcm
20

cccma_cg cccma_cg
cm31
cm31_t63

cnrm_cm3

csiro_mk
30

csiro_mk35

gfdl_cm20

giss_model_eh

gfdl_cm2
1

giss_model_er

giss_aom

iap_fgoals1

Miroc32_hires

Mpi_echam5

miroc32_nedres

Mri_cgcm
23_2

miub_echog

ncar_ccsm30

ncar_pcm
1

Ukmo_hadcm3

ukmo_hadgem1

ingv_echam4

inmcm_3
0ipsl_cm4

Mejerda River
It is virtually certain thatdrought will become more severe.
Annual Average Rainfall

Annual Average Rainfall
1986-2000
2051-2065

600
400
2000800

1986-2000
2051-2065

600
400
2000

KALAAT ESSENAM

Annual Average Rainfall
1000
800

rainfall mm/year

rainfall mm/year

800

1000

rainfall mm/year

1000

AIN BEYA OUED

1986-2000
2051-2065

600
4002000

SLOUGUIA11mcm

Groundwater Level Variations (satellite-observed)

Groundwater Level Variations (ground-observed)
13GW storage anomaly (cm)Inter-comparison

GW (LDAS-WEBDHM)
GW (TWS – SM)

GW storage anomaly (cm)Future GW Variations-1.3mm/year

18/20

Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working
Together

Regime Shift
Extremes

ClimateSystemFlood/Drought

WaterCycle

Water
Resources
ManagementSystem

Land Use/ Urbanization
Agriculture/Food
Water Quality/ Material Flow/ Health
EnergyBiodiversity/Ecosystem

Water is a Key
bridging between climate processes and societal benefits.

(Richard H. Moss, et al., Nature, 2010)

Water Cycle Integrator
ModelsWeather
Prediction

Seasonal Prediction

ClimatePrediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction
Satellite

Data Assimilation

Ground Elevation

River FlowVis.
IRWaterCycle
Model

Snow

Soil
Moisture
GravityRain
fall
GroundWater
Val.

Rainfall

River
Flow

Urban
Water
Model

IWRM

Evapotranspiration

MW

Urban
Environment
Conservation

Agriculture
SupportLoading Unit
Crop
Model

Climate Change
Adaptation

River BasinManagement
Soil
Moisture
In-situ Data

GroundWater

SewageAgricultural Info.
Famer’s Needs

Index
Organism

Water
Quality

Biodiversity
Data
In-situ Data

GSMaP/NRTrain gauge
calibration
pseud-rainfall
weather

rainfalllanduseDEM

WEB-DHM (Wang, Koike, et al., 2009)（Water and Energy Budget based Distributed Hydrological Model）

satellite(AQUA/AMSR-E +LDAS-UT)

Soil Parameter{soil organic carbon}

Hillslope hydrological modelLand surface Model

GBHM

Hydro-SiB ← SiB2

Geomorphology-Based
Hydrological Model

Wang, Koike et al.,(2009) Sellers et al.,(1996)

Managements{ transplanting date,fertilizer application date,fertilizer application rate}soil moisturephotosynthesis(Yang, Koike, et al., 2004)developmental rate

SIMRIW-rainfed (Homma and Horie, 2009)（Simulation Model for Rice and Weather
Relationship - rainfed）

respiration

discharge

Paddy Field

available irrigation amount

LAI

Harvest index(Hi)water stressharvest index
dry matterdevelopmental index

design water depth considering water stresswater demand considering capacity of intake
optimized irrigation water (pseudo rainfall)yield

water depth

leaf area expansion

Water DemandRiver Flow at a target intake weirtarget intake weir

Plant N content
water stressdownstream
intake weirs

allocated irrigation waterriver flow
water for domesticuse, industrial use,and environment

N uptake

Irrigation scheme

N poolN mineralization

N loss(Ohta, Tsujimoto, Koike and Homma, in prep.)Sustainable Development
Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working
Together

Regime Shift
Extremes

ClimateSystemFlood/Drought

Water
Cycle

Water
Resources
Management
SystemLand Use/ Urbanization
Agriculture/Food
Water Quality/ Material Flow/ Health
EnergyBiodiversity/Ecosystem

1st Asian Water Cycle Symposium, Tokyo, Nov. 2005

1st Task Team Meeting, Bangkok, Sep. 2006

1st Capacity Building Workshop, Sep. 2006

2nd Asian Water Cycle Symposium, Tokyo, Jan. 2007

GEOSS
Asian Water Cycle Initiative(AWCI)To promote integrated water
resources management bymaking usable informationfrom GEOSS, for addressing
the common water-related
problems in Asia.

Uniqueness・A River Basin of Each Country
・Observation Convergence

1st GEOSS AP Symposium, Tokyo, Jan. 2007

・Interoperability Arrangement
・Data Integration

1st International Coordination Group Meeting, Bali, Sep. 2007

・Open Data & Source Policies
・Capacity Building

3rd Asian Water Cycle Symposium, Beppu, Dec. 2007

・Early Achievements

Demonstration River Basins

Observation Metadata Registration
Complete
Close to Completion

Document Metadata Registration
Complete

Quality Controlling
Complete

Data Uploading
Complete
Bangladesh

BhutanCambodia

India

Indonesia

JapanKorea

Lao PDR

Malaysia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Nepal

Pakistan

Philippines

Sri Lanka Thailand

Uzbekistan

VietnamDemonstration River Basins

Pakistan Flood Information in 2010

GEOSS/AWCI Website:
http://monsoon.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/AWCI/doc/Pakistan/index.htm

Takeo Tadono et al., “Monitoring Flooding in Pakistan Using ALOS & GSMap Provided byJAXA” GEWEX Newsletter, Special CEOP Issue, Vol. 20, No. 3, p. 8, August 2010.

Water-Climate-Agriculture Workbench in Cambodia

Stakeholder Meeting

Real-time Rain Gauge  Satellite Data Correction
 Wide Data Dissemination
Famers’ Needs & Experiences

Nation-wide Daily Soil
Moisture from Satellite
Holistic View of Water-Climate-Agriculture Problems

Local Information

Climate Change Analysis Tools

OJT for Local Practitioners

Water Cycle-Rice Production
Coupled Model

Rice Production MonitoringstGEOSS African Water Cycle SymposiumJan. 2009 1in Tunis,
Water-related Issues & Roles ofEO

1st Task Team
Meeting in Geneva,
Strategy for
Coordinated
EO and CBSept. 2009

2nd African Water Cycle Symposium in Addis Ababa
Planning for Demonstration
Feb. 2011

Jan. 2012

GEO-UNESCO Joint Workshop in Nairobi
Report on Demonstrations and IWRM CB Programrd3 African Water Cycle Symposium in LibrevilleFeb. 2012 Basic
Idea of Implementation, Statement to Rio+20

Feb. 2013
3rd African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative
Workshop in El Jadida, Draft Implementation Plan

Nov. 2013

1st GEOSS Africa & Asia Joint Water Cycle Symposium in Tokyo
1st AfWCCI Implementation Plan and 2nd AWCI Implementation Plan27

GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative(AfWCCI)
Based on a collaboration between the Group on Earth Observations(GEO) and RBOs in Africa, Global Earth Observation System ofSystems (GEOSS) supports application of coordinated, comprehensive
and sustained Earth Observations and information across transboundary river basins in Africa, particularly focusing on:●Observation and data management●Capacity development on:observation
Improvement of
data archiving
the water resources
Modeling
management capacity
Prediction
climate change
Participating
impact assessment
Medjerda, Niger, Nile, L/Victoria, L/Chad, Okavango,data integration
Orange-Senqu, Senegal, Zambezi, Oum Er-Rabia,
L’Ogooue

Goal : To facilitate better managementin trans-boundary rivers in Africa

28

Sustainable Development
Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working
Together

Regime Shift
Extremes

ClimateSystemFlood/Drought

Water
Cycle

Water
Resources
Management
SystemLand Use/ Urbanization
Agriculture/Food
Water Quality/ Material Flow/ Health
EnergyBiodiversity/Ecosystem