˘˘˘Global Leadership Training Programme in Africa 2015
2014
Activity Report of Field Research

Conflict Prevention and Horizontal Inequalities-What mechanism reduces the likelihood of armed conflicts in Zambia?Mizuki Watanabe
2nd Year, International Public Policy
Graduate School of Public Policy, the University of Tokyo
Host University: The University of Zambia
The period of research: 2 months

I.

SummaryThis study examines the degree of Horizontal Inequalities (HIs) of Zambia. The low
degree of HIs in Zambia is said to be one of the factors that has been preventing conflicts
over the last 50 years. HIs are defined as inequalities among groups of people that share acommon identity (Stewart, 2010). Such inequalities have four main dimensions: PoliticalHIs, Economic HIs, Social HIs and Cultural HIs1. Recent studies of civil war argue that theexistence of HIs increases the risk of conflict in a multi-ethnic country. Stewart et al. argue
that conflict is more likely where political and socio-economic HIs are high and run in thesame direction (Stewart et al., 2008). Evidence on the significance of HIs for conflict isdrawn from both case studies2 and econometric investigations (Stewart, 2010).
In order to measure a degree of HIs in each dimension, an inquiring survey withparticular focus on the relatively large four ethnic groups of Zambia: Bemba, Nyanja,
Tonga and Lozi was conducted through the field work involving interviews. I focused on
ethnic groups among identified ones since they have often been recognized in the context
of conflict.

1

Frances (2010) introduces a number of elements in each four dimension:・Economic HIs: inequalities in access to and ownership of assets—financial, human, natural resource-based and social, and also
inequalities in income levels and employment opportunities, which depend on such assets and the general conditions of the economy.
・Social HIs: inequalitiesinaccesstoarangeofservices,suchaseducation,healthcareand housing, as well as to the benefits of educationaland health care outcomes.
・Political HIs :inequalitiesinthedistributionofpoliticalopportunitiesandpoweramong groups, including control over the army, thecabinet, local and regional governments, parliamentary assemblies, the police and the presidency. They also encompass inequalities inpeople’s capabilities to participate politically and to express their needs.
Cultural status HIs :disparities in the recognition and standing of different groups’ language, religion, customs, norms and practices.
2
E,g, Rwanda; Sudan; Kenya; N.Ireland; Peru; Guatemala; Nigeria. Many more case studies are to be found in Stewart
2008; and CRISE Working Papers (www.crise.ox.ac.uk)

・1The survey result shows that the majority of respondents have not felt a sense of
inequality among ethnic-divided groups and the percentage of people who perceive HIs in
Zambia is low. The answers were provided by all of randomly-selected 215 respondents,
however, of course it does not mean that their answers represent what the whole ofpeople in Zambia think. Still, I believe this survey result indicates a worthwhile tendency of
HIs in Zambia.
I would like to mention two points that differentiate this research from previous studies.
First, it focuses on a country which has never experienced armed conflict. Previous studies
usually measured degrees of HIs in a country that has experienced severe ethnic conflict
such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. If HIs in countries which have never experienced
any conflicts are low, we can point out the correlation between the existence of HIs andthe possibility of conflict occurring.
Second, this research tries to focus on the ‘self-perceived’ HIs, while previous researches
have mainly dealt with the ‘examined’ HIs drawn by the statistical data such as
Demographic Health Survey (DHS). A systematic, large-N quantitative research isnecessary for conducting comparative analysis, however, I would like to argue that suchkinds of data sometimes fall to specify the identified groups and cover limited kinds ofdimensions of HIs. Taking an example of DHS, it merely provides socio-economic data ofeach region. Additionally, the perceived HIs are very important since conflict is more likely
where collective grievances are generated by perception of inequalities among people. For
these reasons, I believe measuring the perceived HIs is nothing but meaningful for conflictstudies at a case-study level.
In the last of this report, I would like to discuss two mechanisms which possibly work on
decreasing HIs of Zambia for the further research.

本研究は、「多民族国家において紛争を防止するメカニズム」について考察を図ることを目的とし、ザンビア国内における水平的格差（Horizontal inequalities）の測定を試みた。
水平的格差とは、政治・経済・社会・文化という４分野において集団間で見られる格差と定義される。近年の紛争研究では、水平的格差の存在が紛争リスクを高めると言われており、実際に多くの紛争経験国では民族間の水平的格差の存在が確認されている。また、先行研究(Stewart et al., 2008)によると、政治的・経済的な水平的格差が同方向に走っている場合、紛争のリスクは高まるとされている。
私は水平的格差と紛争予防の関連性を調べるため、2016 年 1 月から 3 月にかけてアフリ
カのザンビアにて聞き取り調査を行い、主要民族の水平的格差を測定した。ザンビアは国内に 72 の民族を抱える多民族国家でありながら、建国以来一度も民族紛争を経験していない、アフリカでは稀有な国である。聞き取りを中心としたインタビュー調査の結果、ザ
ンビアの主要民族間では著しい水平的格差の認識は見られず、水平的格差の不存在と紛争予防の関連が確認された。
本研究の意義は大きく二つある。一つ目は、武力紛争を経験していない国の水平的格差の測定を試みたことである。これまでの水平的格差に関する研究は、紛争経験国の民族間2

格差に焦点を置いていた。いくつかの紛争未経験国で水平的格差が低いということが確認された場合、水平的格差の有無と紛争発生の相関関係がより強固となると考えられ、本研究はその一端を成すものである。
二つ目は、「認識される」水平的格差に焦点を当てたことである。これまでの先行研究
は、Demographic Health Survey（DHS）といった統計資料を用い、「実際の」水平的格差につて分析を行うことが多かった。統計資料は比較分析をする際に有用であるが、水平的格差の全ての次元を把握できないこと、集団の特定が困難であることなどの問題点を抱えている。また、人々が不平等を認知することにより不平感情が発生することが紛争に大きく起因していることからも、認識される格差に焦点を当てることが、少なくともケース・
スタディレベルでは望ましいと考える。本研究では各民族集団への聞き取り調査を通じて、人々がどのように水平的格差を認識しているかを測ることを試みた。
本レポートの最後では、調査の結果をもとに、ザンビアにて水平的格差を低く抑えているメカニズムに関する考察を行い、今後の研究に繋げていく。

II.

Research Activity
1. Introduction

Why do some multi-ethnic countries experience violent conflict while other multiethnic countries enjoy peaceful societies? Civil wars often have an ethnic dimension,
with well-defined identity groups fighting each other (Murshed, S. Mansoob & Scott
Gates, 2005) and many countries in Africa have experienced so-called ethnic conflicts
in the 1990s. Recent studies of civil war argue that the existence of Horizontal
Inequalities increases the risk of conflict in a multi-ethnic country.
According to large-N studies of civil war (e.g. Collier & Hoeffler, 2004; Fearon &Laitin, 2003; Hegre, Gissinger & Gleditsch, 2003), inequality does not necessarily raise
the risk of violent conflict (Østby, 2008). However, as Østby argues (2008), thesestudies test the conflict potential of vertical inequalities, which are the inequalities
among individuals, opposed to horizontal inequalities between social groups. Sincemany armed conflicts are deeply stemmed from collective grievance shared amonggroup members, what is important is the group aspect of inequality and we cannot
neglect Horizontal Inequalities.
Horizontal Inequalities (HIs) are inequalities among groups of people that share acommon identity (Stewart, 2002) and can provide a cause of conflict between groups
with different identities. In this research, I investigated a degree of HIs in Zambia, witha hypothesis that the degree of HIs among ethnic groups in Zambia is low, so that
Zambia has never experienced the armed conflict among ethnic groups since its
independence.
One example of HIs drawn by DHS is proof of why I paid attention to a degree of
HIs in Zambia. The figure 1 shows the rate of under-5 child mortality per 1000 live
birth in four countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia. The column presents
the average rate of under-5 child mortality in each country, and the error bar displays
the difference of the rate among each province in each country. These countries wereroughly ethnically divided by each province, thus we can approximately guess the3degree of HIs of each ethnic group from the result of DHS. Comparing the length ofeach error bar, we can assume that Zambia is one of the countries whose degree of
HIs is relatively low compared to countries which have experienced civil conflicts in the
past.

Figure 1: HIs: the rate of under-5 child mortality (per 1000 live birth)

180
130
80
30
-20

Cote d'lvoire

Ghana

Nigeria

ZambiaSource: DHS – Côte d’Ivoire (2011-2012), Ghana (2014), Nigeria (2013) and Zambia(2014)
2. Study Area

I chose Zambia as the case study, because Zambia is one of the rare Africancountries which have never experienced a severe armed conflict among ethnic groups.
If some mechanisms for conflict prevention are found, it would also be possibly
adapted to other countries which suffered from violent conflict and its relapses.
The survey was held in Lusaka province and Southern province, where two big cities ofZambia, Lusaka (capital) and Livingstone (the second large city) are located.
3. Methodology

Interviews were conducted in compounds (the district for the poor), schools andtown (the main street of each city) in Southern province from February 22nd to 23rd andin Lusaka province from March 14th to 24th. The questionnaire items were 16 in total(Appendix A). This structured interview focused in particular on four ethnic groups:
Bemba, Chewa, Tonga and Lozi, which are relatively large ethnic groups in Zambia(Appendix B). Two Zambian assistants who spoke the above languages and translated
survey to the language in which each respondent3 speaks.
In the questionnaire, two elements were employed in each four HIs dimension tomeasure the degree of HIs as described below. Respondents were asked to express
how they perceive the degree of HIs in each dimension.

3

For the breakdown of respondents, see appendix B
4

•
•
•
•

Political HIs: The proportion of National assembly and Cabinet
Economic HIs: Earning and Employment
Social HIs: Education and social service
Cultural HIs: The feeling of being marginalized by language and tribe

4. Research Findings

This section introduces the degree of Horizontal Inequalities of Zambia in four
dimensions which is led by the result of the inquiring survey4.
Figure 2

Speaking of political HIs, the majority of respondents regards their ethnic groups are
represented in the National Assembly of Zambia and Cabinet with a considerable
proportions, while the majority of Lozi respondents and 34% of Tonga respondents
states that they feel unequal at the Cabinet level (See the section of political HIs in
Appendix C).
Figure 3

The majority feels equal in economic HIs as well, while 40% of Lozi respondents
stated that they feel grievances against other ethnic groups at workplace and 53% of
Tonga respondents stated that they feel richer than other groups, which is 1.28 times
higher than the average (See the section of economic HIs in Appendix C).

4

Appendix C shows the proportion of each ethnic group's Horizontal inequalities in four dimensions
5

Figure 4

When it comes to Social HIs, approximately three quarters of respondents statedthat they feel equal in the social dimension and each ethnic group think they aretreated equally (See the section of social HIs in Appendix C).

Figure 5

The last is cultural HIs. The result shows that most of the respondents have neverfelt the sense of being marginalized by their tribe and their language, while 53% of
Tonga respondents have experienced the marginalization by linguistic and 45% ofthem also have felt that by tribe (See the section of cultural HIs in Appendix C)

6

Table 6: Summary of HIs variables of all respondents

Table 6 sums up HIs variables of four focused ethnic groups, in comparison with theaverage of those of the others as well as of all respondents.. Overall, the majority
mofrespondents stated that they have not felt the sense of inequality
uality in each dimension of
HIs and it leads the conclusion of this survey that the HIs perceived by people are notsignificant in Zambia
Zambia.
5. Discussion

The survey demonstratedemonstrates a relatively low degree of HIs in Zambia,
Zambia still its reasons
are not clearly uncovered. I would like to suggest two hypotheses here for the further
discussion.
One is that the sense of national iidentity prevents the ethnic polarization.
polarization It could bethought that this makes Zambian people feel equal. In the survey, I asked to the
respondent ‘Which
Which identification sounds comfortable the most when you are asked to
identify yourself?’ F
Figureigure 7 below indicates the proportion of answers by each
respondent.
According to the graph, 60% of the Figure 7
respondents
spondents identify themselves as Zambian,which is 2.4 times as large as people regarding
themselves as tribal members (25%)(25%).
The founding norm “one Zambia, one nation”
declared by Kenneth Kaunda, the first presidentof Zambia who ruled the country more than 25
years, seems to be effective even 50 years after
the independence. Some respondents mentioned
this norm as a reason why they have never felt
7

the sense of being marginalized as on account of their language identity or tribe.
The second hypothesis, somehow related to the first one, is that political institutionsof Zambia have continued to make a considerable effort to decrease the level ofinequalities. Kenneth Kaunda took great care to balance his cabinet appointments
across ethnic groups (Posner, 2005). Considering the fact that the regional HI
measures are interacted with terms for regime type; electoral system and politicalexclusion (Østby, 2008), what Kaunda worked out seems to be important to decrease
the degree of HIs in this country.
6. Conclusion

The correlation between HIs and conflict was emphasized by this field survey
examining the degree of HIs in Zambia. Overall, the majority of interviewed
respondents stated that they have not felt the sense of inequality in each dimension ofHIs. Especially for public policy students, I believe that it is very important to search forsome instrumental methods to decrease HIs in a country which can be adopted toother countries.
I would like to continue my research about HIs and conflict prevention from now onin order to contribute to post-conflict countries suffering from violent conflict and its
relapses in Africa.
••

Acknowledgement
I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all those who provided me thepossibility to complete this survey. A special gratitude I give to: UNU-IAS: Dr. Osamu
Saito, Dr. Natsuko Imai, UNZA: Prof. Momba, Dr. Jewette Masinja, Miss. Kabwe
Musonda,Miss. Sumbwanyambe Likando , Mr. Kalaluka Mututwa.
ReferencesoCollier, Paul & Anke Hoeffler, 2004., Greed and Grievance in Civil War, Oxford
Economic Papers 56(4): 563–595
oFearon, James D. & David D. Laitin, 2003, Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,American Political Science Review 97(1): pp.75–90.
oGleditsch, Kristian Skrede et al., 2014, Data and progress in peace and conflictresearch, Journal of Peace ResearchoHegre, Håvard; Ranveig Gissinger & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2003, Globalization andInternal Conflict, in Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri & Nils Petter Gleditsch,eds, Globalization and Armed Conflict. Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, pp.251–276
oMurshed, S. Mansoob & Scott Gates, 2005., Spatial-Horizontal Inequality and the
Maoist Insurgency in Nepal’, Review of Development Economics 9(1)oOgura, Mitsuo et al., 2012, Contemporary African Societies and International
Relations, UshindooØstby, Gudrun, 2008, Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict,
Journal of Peace Research
8

o

o

o

o

o

•

Posner, Daniel, 2005, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa, Cambridge
University Press
Stewart, Frances, 2002, Horizontal Inequalities: A Neglected Dimension of
Development, Queen Elizabeth House Working Paper Number 81.
Stewart, Frances et al., 2005, Why Horizontal Inequalities Matter: Some
Implications for Measurement, CRISE Working Paper No.19
Stewart, Frances et al., 2008, Horizontal inequalities and conflict, Understanding
Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies
Stewart, Frances, 2010, Horizontal Inequalities as a cause of conflict - A Review of
CRISE Findings, WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2011

Appendix
Appendix A: Questionnaire

9The result of this survey will be collected and used for the research paper of the University ofTokyo without specific information of individuals.

Please circle the number of each answer for the questions below.
Age: () Sex: (Male / Female)Q1. In Which province did you spend the most of time in your life?
1. North Western
5. Northern 9. Muchinga
2. Western
6. Central 10. Luapula
3. Southern
7. Lusaka
4. Copperbelt
8. Eastern
0. Outside of Zambia (*Please Specify:))
Q2. How many years have you lived in the above-mentioned province?

() years

Q3. What is the highest education you have finished?
(Primary / Junior / Secondary / Upper Secondary / College / University / Graduate school / Other (*Please))
Specify:
Q4. What is your tribe based on your ID card?
1. Bemba
4. Tonga
7. Ngoni
2. Chewa
5. Nsenga
8. Lala3. Lozi
6. Tumbuka
0. Other (*Please Specify:))
Q5. What is your mother tongue except English?
1. Bemba 2. Nyanja 3. Lozi 4. Tonga
0. Other (*Please Specify:))
Q6. Which identification sounds the most comfortable when you are asked to identify yourself as:
1. Your linguistic group 5. Your current town
2. Your ethnicity
6. Your hometown
3. Your tribe
7. Zambian
4. Your province
0. Other (*Please Specify:))
Q7. Have you ever felt the sense of being marginalized as on account of your language identity by otherlinguistic groups?
1. Yes

2. No

0. Not sure

Please explain whatever you answered. For example: When did you feel it / why didn’t?

Q8. Have you ever felt the sense of being marginalized as on account of your tribe by other groups?
1. Yes
2. No
0. Not sure
Please explain whatever you answered. For example: When did you feel it / why didn’t?

Q9. Have you ever felt the sense of inequalities / grievances against people in other linguistic groups?
1. Yes
2. No
0. Not sure10

Answer this question if you answered Yes to Q9, against which linguistic group have you felt that feeling?
1. Bemba 2. Nyanja 3. Lozi 4. Tonga
0. Other (*Please Specify:))
Please explain whatever you answered. For example: When did you feel it / why didn’t?

Q10. Have you ever felt the sense of inequalities / grievances against people in other tribes?
1. Yes
2. No
0. Not sure
Answer this question if you answered Yes to Q 10, against which tribe have you felt that feeling?
1. Bemba
4. Tonga
7. Ngoni
2. Chewa
5. Nsenga
8. Lala3. Lozi
6. Tumbuka
0. Other (*Please Specify:))
Please explain whatever you answered. For example: When did you feel it / why didn’t?

Q11. Do you think your ethnic group has the same opportunity as other groups in the provision of education?
1. Yes, we are treated as equal as other groups.
2. To be honest, our group sometimes has a privilege compared to other groups.
3. No, we feel some grievances against other groups.
0. Not Sure
Q12. Do you think your ethnic group is successfully represented at the National Assembly of Zambia with aconsiderable proportion?
1. Yes, the proportion of our group is considerable.
2. No, the proportion of our group is over-represented.
3. No, the proportion of our group is under-represented.
0. Not Sure
Q13. Do you think your ethnic group is successfully represented among Ministers, deputy Ministers and othersenior political appointments with a considerable proportion?
1. Yes, the proportion of our group is considerable.
2. No, the proportion of our group is over-represented.
3. No, the proportion of our group is under-represented.
0. Not Sure
Q14. Do you think your ethnic group is richer (meaning, you earn much money) than other groups in general?
Just tell me your honest thought.
1. Yes, I think our group is richer than other groups.
2. I think it’s almost the same amount as other groups.
3. No, we are poorer than other groups.
0. Not Sure
Q15. Do you think your ethnic group is treated as equal as the other groups at the employment, speaking ofopportunities, salary and promotions?
1. Yes, we are treated as equal as other groups.
2. To be honest, our group sometimes has a privilege compared to other groups.
3. No, we feel some grievances against other groups.
0. Not Sure
Q16. Do you think your ethnic group is treated as equal as the other groups at social services such as Health11

Care, Welfare, Pensions and Insurance?
1. Yes, we are treated as equal as other groups.
2. To be honest, our group sometimes has a privilege compared to other groups.
3. No, we feel some grievances against other groups.
0. Not Sure
Thank you very much for participatingin our survey!

Appendix B: The breakdown of respondents
Total Respondent: 215
Age
10s
11
20s
95
30s
60
40s
23
50s
5
Over 60
2
Brank
19

GenderMale

FemaleBrank

Education level
122 Primary
JuniorSecondary76
Upper Secondary
College
University
17
Graduate School
No Education
Brank

3
8
36
33
30
43
17
3
42

Ethnicity
Bemba
Chewa
Lozi
Tonga
NsengaTumbuka
Ngoni
Lala
Other
Brank

50
22
20
38
9
12
17
3
37
7

Appendix B: The proportion of each ethnic group's Horizontal inequalities in four dimensions<Political Horizontal Inequalities>
National Assembly・・Cabinet
12

<Economic Horizontal Inequalities>

・Employment

・Earning

3<Social Horizontal Inequalities>

・Education
13

・Social Services<Cultural Horizontal Inequalities>

・Language

・Tribe14

III.

Reflection to the GLTP in AfricaooMy motivation to participate in the GLTP
I can still remember the feeling of excitement when I received an offer letter fromthe UNU nominating me as one of the participants of GLTP.
I was looking for opportunities to step into the continent of Africa and GLTP gaveme this great chance. Before participating in GLTP, everything I had known about
Africa came from written forms such as journals and books, even though myundergraduate major was African Politics. GLTP enabled me to finally see the real
Africa through field experiences.
Field experiences
At first, my inquiring survey was
supposed to be conducted on campus.
The university of Zambia seemed a very
good field where I could encounterpeople from various ethnic groups who
came
from
different
provinces.
Unfortunately, I realized my plan should
be modified since the school was closed
because of students' riot on the third day
after arriving in Zambia and all of
undergraduate were gone. I urgently needed to find another field in order to collectthe feasible number of answers from major four ethnic groups and finish myresearch in two months.
After having a discussion with my supervisor at the University of Zambia, I
decided to visit several compounds (the slum district where the poor householdslive) in Lusaka province and Southern province with two Zambian assistants who canspeak several major local languages. In compounds, I met a lot of people who wereable to communicate only in their local language and my assistants helped me a lot
throughout the survey.
15

It seemed like an Asian girl walking
down the compound district was a raresituation for local people, which worked
in a good way. I was usually greeted
warmly and friendly and many of themwillingly participate in this survey. Somepeople even invited us to their houses.
The field inquiring survey was nothing
but a very good opportunity not only for
my research but also for experiencing avery local Zambian life through communicating with local people.

Two assistants (Mr. Mututwa and Miss. Likando)oChallenges
Above-mentioned riot was definitely one of the great challenges for my research.
Another thing is the data I was looking for were not available in the institutions ofZambia. At first, I was planning to measure the degree of Horizontal inequality (Seethe section I and II) by comparing actual HIs (data) to perceived HIs (inquiring
survey). I refrain to mention the specific name of institutions here, but for several
reasons, I could not access the data and needed to focus on the perceived HIs in
this research.
Speaking of the daily life, everything was
perfect except load shedding for over eight
hours happening almost every day, whichmeans candle light dinner was no longer
rare! Most of all Zambian electricity relied onhydro-electric production. Scarce rainfall
made water levels at the dam significantly
low and that led this massive load shedding this year.

o

How to make use of this experience to my future career development
My future dream is to contribute topeace-building in post-conflict countries ofAfrica as an advocacy staff of theinternational organization. During my stayin Zambia, I think I was able to obtain two
important skills which I can possibly makeuse of in the future.
One is the high communication skill withpeople with whom I am not familiar. In
the field survey, I randomly talked to16people walking down the street to get the number of responses as many as possible.
There was no time to be shy in front of strangers during the survey, which fostered
my sociability.
Another is the flexibility for continuously changing situations. I met several
unexpected difficult situations (the riot thing, the data collection and more!) during
my research in Zambia, however, I always made efforts to find alternatives and fit
myself into the situation. I believe these two skills will be very helpful when I start
to work for an international organization in Africa.
oEncouragement to other students
If you are interested in visiting Africa aspart of your research, GLTP is one of thebest programs assisting you! Thanks tokind and warm staffs at the University ofZambia, staying in Zambia for twomonths became absolutely one of themost precious experiences in my life. I
would like to recommend this program to
all graduate students in Japan whose
research project is related to Africa.

17