Valuing Naturein Decision-Making

Gretchen Daily

Twin Challenges of the 21stC
3 billion people live on <¥300 /day
Rapid decline of biodiversity andEarth’s life-support systems

Decisions

Institutions

Human
Well-Being

Ecosystems

Services(Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers)(Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

Policies /Incentives

Decisions

Scenarios

Ecosystems

Institutions
Information

Human
Well-Being

BiophysicalModelsServices

Health(Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers)
Economic, Social
Models(Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

The Natural Capital Project

1. Co-developing knowledge
2. Co-developing practical tools
3. Implementing in real-world
4. Replicating & scaling successes

1st Story: Co-Developing Knowledge
Decisions
Institutions

Human
Well-Being

Ecosystems

Services1st Story: Co-Developing Knowledge
Identifying
Alternatives
DecisionsHarmonizing Agriculture,
Ecosystems
Institutions
Livelihoods & Biodiversity?
Human
Well-Being

Services

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

The “matrix” matters

CVSustaining biodiversity in countryside?

The “matrix” matters

Plants(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

CV

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
CV

Non-flying mammals(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
CVBats(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
CVBirds(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

The “matrix” matters

Reptiles(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

CV

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
CVAmphibians(Mendenhall et al. 2016)

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

(Frishkoff et al. 2014 Science)(Frishkoff et al. 2014 Science)Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?

(Frishkoff et al. 2014 Science)(Frishkoff et al. 2014 Science)Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
1. Affinity for agriculture distributed
across the tree of life

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
1. Affinity for agriculture distributed
across the tree of life
2. Diversified agriculture supports 600
million more years of evolutionary
history than monocultures, but 300
million fewer years than forests

Sustaining biodiversity in countryside?
1. Affinity for agriculture distributed
across the tree of life
2. Diversified agriculture supports 600
million more years of evolutionary
history than monocultures, but 300
million fewer years than forests
3. Agricultural systems merit much
more conservation attention

Why protect rainforest?

Why protect rainforest?

Why protect rainforest?

20% yield
50% quality(Ricketts et al 2004)

Why protect rainforest?

20% yield
50% quality(Ricketts et al 2004)

infestation
by 50%(Karp et al 2013)

Why protect rainforest?

20% yield
50% quality(Ricketts et al 2004)

infestation
by 50%complex(Karp et al 2013)(Karp & Daily 2014)

Why protect rainforest?

1000s of Studies
Over Past Decade
20% yield
50% quality(Ricketts et al 2004)

infestation
by 50%

complex(Karp et al 2013)(Karp & Daily 2014)

Why protect rainforest?

From Studies to
Policy and Governance?
20% yield
50% quality(Ricketts et al 2004)

infestation
by 50%complex(Karp et al 2013)(Karp & Daily 2014)

2nd Story: Co-Developing Knowledge
Decisions
Institutions

Human
Well-Being

Ecosystems

Services

Urban Mental Health
City Living
20% increase in anxiety disorders
40% increase in mood disorders

Urban Mental Health
City Living
20% increase in anxiety disorders
40% increase in mood disorders(Lederbogen et al. 2011 Nature)Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental HealthImpact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health

TESTS → BUS → WALK → BUS → TESTS

Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental HealthImpact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health?

(4/2)+1 = 4

Letter• R(4/2)+1 = 4

Letter• RR

Letter• R

5+2-4 = 4

Letter• RQ

Letter• R(2*2) + 4 = 8

Letter• RS

Letter• R(7+1)/2 = 4

Letter• RFLetter• R????

O-Span Task
Difference in # of letters remembered(Post –- Pre)
Pre)
(Post**15151010

Urban55

NatureLinear (Nature)

00-5-5Must perform at 75% level for correct math answers(Bratman et al. 2015 Land & UrbanPlanning)Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health?

(4/2)+1 = 4

Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health?

(4/2)+1 = 4“My attention is often focusedon aspects of myself I wish I’dstop thinking about.”Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health↑ working memory↑ mood↓ anxiety↓ rumination

Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health↑ working memory↑ mood 100s of Studies

Over Past Decade↓ anxiety↓ rumination

Impact of Nature Experience on
Mental Health↑ working memory↑ mood From Studies

to Policy & Governance?
↓ anxiety↓ rumination

The Natural Capital Project

1. Co-developing knowledge
2. Co-developing practical tools
3. Implementing in real-world
4. Replicating & scaling successes

3rd Story: Co-Developing Practical Tools
Decisions
Institutions

Human
Well-Being

Ecosystems

Servicesfoodhealthfresh water
livelihoods
energyrecreation
security
biodiversity

InVEST maps & values
Managed
TimberProduction

Water
Purification

CarbonFinfishStorage &Aquaculture
Sequestration

MarineWater
Quality

CropPollination

Reservoir
Hydropower
Production

Aesthetic
Quality

Fisheries

Wave
EnergyAgricultural Groundwater
Recharge
Production

Recreation

CoastalVulnerability

OffshoreWind
EnergySediment
Retention

Flood Risk &Mitigation

Model in development

Habitat Risk&
Biodiversity
MentalHealthCoastalProtection

Multiple Value Metrics# of poorfamilies
protected
drinking
water
qualityaccess tosacred places
and species

jobs &
livelihoods in
key sectors
hydropower
production
efficiency

mentalhealth3.0

www.naturalcapitalproject.org

3.0100+
countries

www.naturalcapitalproject.org

The Natural Capital Project

1. Co-developing knowledge
2. Co-developing practical tools
3. Implementing in real-world
4. Replicating & scaling successes4th Story: Real-World Decisions
Decisions
Institutions

HumanWell-Being

Ecosystems

ServicesDemonstrations

High-Leverage Demonstrations
Development Planning
Securing Freshwater
Livable Cities
Private Sector Standards
Resilient Coasts

61

A Brief History

62

A Brief History
1991 – knowledge foundation

63

A Brief History
1991 – knowledge foundation
1996 – real-world, but boutique cases

WATER$$64

A Brief History
1991 – knowledge foundation
1996 – real-world, but boutique cases
2006 – systematizing a universal approach65

A Brief History
1991 – knowledge foundation
1996 – real-world, but boutique cases
2006 – systematizing a universal approach66

A Brief History
1991 – knowledge foundation
1996 – real-world, but boutique cases
2006 – systematizing a universal approach2016 – scaling a universal approach

67

The Natural Capital Project

1. Co-developing knowledge
2. Co-developing practical tools
3. Implementing in real-world
4. Replicating & scaling successes5th Story: Replication & Scaling
Decisions
Institutions

HumanWell-Being

Ecosystems

ServicesDemonstrations

High-Leverage Demonstrations
Development PlanningSecuring Freshwater
Livable Cities
Private Sector Standards
Resilient Coasts

70Water Security for Cities

WATER71

Water Security for Cities$$72

Targeting Investments
Which activities?

73

Targeting Investments
Which activities?
Where in the watershed?

74

Investment
Portfolio
Investment Portfolio
Tuluá

Cauca Valley, Colombia

Cauca Valley
Colombia

75

Investment
Portfolio
Investment Portfolio
Tuluá

Cauca Valley, Colombia

76

Tuluá

Water Quality (%)

WhatWhatis the return
oninvestment?
is the ROI?

1025

Total Budget ($ Millions)77

Water Security for Cities
A standardizedapproach• Eco-hydrology• Financing• Governance• Monitoring
Scaling up to 40+
funds now78

Water Security for Cities
A standardized
approach• Eco-hydrology• Financing• Governance• Monitoring
Scaling up to 40+
funds now79

Demonstrations

High-Leverage Demonstrations
Development Planning
Securing Freshwater
Livable Cities
Private Sector Standards
Resilient Coasts

80

Development & Security in China
China’s Dream (2012):
 Harmonizing people & nature Creating the ecologicalcivilization of the 21st Century

Development & Security in China
China’s Dream (2012):
 Harmonizing people & nature Creating the ecologicalcivilization of the 21st Century

Development & Security in China
China’s Dream (2012):
 Harmonizing people & nature Creating the ecologicalcivilization of the 21st Century
1. Where to protect biodiversity & ecosystem services?
2. How to secure natural capital & alleviate poverty?
3. How to move beyond GDP to evaluate performance?

Harmonizing People and Nature

120 M Households Enrolled(Liu et al 2008 PNAS)China’s Ecosystem Function
Conservation Areas

flood control
biodiversity
water resources
soil fertility
sandstorm control

China’s Ecosystem Function
Conservation Areasflood controlbiodiversity
sandstorm control
water purificationwater supply & flood control

PES + Livelihoods Framework(Zheng et al. 2013 PNAS)

200 M people being paid torestore natural capital88

Feedback from Survey

89(Cong et al. 2013 PNAS)China Ecosystem Assessment(Ouyang et al. 2016 SCIENCE)

China Ecosystem Assessment(Ouyang et al. 2016 SCIENCE)

China Ecosystem Assessment(Ouyang et al. 2016 SCIENCE)

China Ecosystem Assessment(Ouyang et al. 2016 SCIENCE)

China Ecosystem Assessment

Amphibians

Reptiles(Xu et al. 2017 PNAS)New National Park System(Xu et al. 2017 PNAS)Gross Ecosystem Product

GEP – the total value of ecosystem
goods and services supplied annually- China State Council, March 2014

Gross Ecosystem ProductSociety(HDI)

Economy(GDP)

Ecosystem(GEP)

GEP – the total value of ecosystem
goods and services supplied annually- China State Council, March 2014

Need for New Measures• GDP does not include
the value of mostecosystem services• Wealth accounts do not
capture the value ofnatural capital• Time to go beyond GDP98

Global Demonstration Strategy

High-Leverage Demonstrations
Development Planning
Securing Freshwater
Livable CitiesPrivate Sector Standards
Resilient Coasts

99

Scaling Capacity & Impact

Natural Capital Platform
DataScienceTools

100Thank you!
101