Use of TRIZ for Prediction of the
Future of Technological Systems
Boris Zlotin, TRIZ Master
Ideation International Inc

The Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, 20091

Over 60 Years of Development
initiated and led by G. Altshuller and involving
hundreds of scientists and inventors
Practical experience of
thousands of scientists,
inventors, engineers,managers, businessmen,
etc.
More than
2.000.000
worldwide
patents

History of evolution in different areasof technology and science, social
systems, business, management, art,
languages, etc.
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Feedback from solving with
TRIZ thousands of problems

2

Evolution Eras and Managing the Future

sm
i
l
ta
a
F
100%
80%
60%
40%

a

he
t
s

in
a
m

ht
g
u
ho
t
of
e
d
o
m

Top country or army
leaders, few
aristocrats and/or
priests can manage
their destiny

Nobody canmanage destiny.
Everybody andeverything
depends on fateor luck

Political andbusiness leaders,managers, educatedand talented people,
etc. can manage
their destiny

Any entity(country,organization,company, etc.)
and the majority
of individuals
would be able tomanage theirdestiny

Percentage of
people who canmanage theirdestiny20%0Primitive era- 40.000 years

Agricultural era- 6.000 years

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Industrial era- 300 years

Informational era- 15 years

Ideation Operating System for Innovation

A systematic procedure for
identifying the root causes ofa failure or other undesired
phenomenon in a system,
and for making corrections ina timely manner.

Failure Prediction
A systematic procedure for
identifying beforehand, andthen preventing, alldangerous or harmful
events that might beassociated with a system.

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

DE
AFD

IPS
CIP

Management ofIntellectual
Property
A systematic procedurefor increasing IP value
and providing protection
from infringement andcircumvention.

Inventive Problem Solving

Failure Analysis

Anticipatory Failure Determination

Directed Evolution®
A systematic procedure for strategically evolving
future generations of technological systems

A systematic
procedure forresolving toughtechnologicalproblems,
enhancing systemparameters,
improving quality,
reducing cost, etc.
for current
generations of
products andtechnologies.

Problem Solving versus Directed Evolution

Inventive Problem Solving (IPS) = reactive way of evolution
DE = Directed Evolution = pro-active way of evolution
involving timely transition to the next evolutionary step
avoiding the majority of problems inherent to the existing
systemThe Purpose of Directed Evolution: Building Sustainable
Competitive Advantage by developing a comprehensive set of
logically sequenced scenarios that enables the planning andon-going development of technological and business systems.

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Directed Evolution®
A systematic process to predict the
future generations of a system byinventing them, and A systematic approach targeting theidentification of a comprehensive
set of potential evolutionary
scenarios for:








Products/Services/Processes
Technologies
Organizational structures
Industries
Markets

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Perfect Systems – Desired Result of Directed Evolution
Throughout history, only a limited number of technological systems have possessed theoutstanding qualities that allowed them to enjoy enormous success over an unusually long life.
We name this kind of systems “Perfect” or “Consummate systems”.

Volkswagen Beetle

Singer sewing machine

Kalashnikov Machinegun
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

DC-3 in service June 2006

Marketing Tornado – Desired Result of Directed Evolution• Oil lamp invented
1840• Kerosene invented 1855
• First oil well drilled 1859

Kerosene lamp
increased bright timeequal to increasingof man power by
25-30%

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Typical modern
Americancorporation

Riding Marketing Tornado - Way to Success

TornadoLeaderTornado riders
Bank of Evolutionary
Alternatives™

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

The HistoryTechnological Forecasting (1950’s)

TRIZ Forecasting (1970’s)







Utilizes probabilistic modeling of future characteristics of various
systems
Utilizes selected TRIZ-based tools to generate an idea(s) helpful forthe next product or process generation

I-TRIZ Anticipatory Failure Determination (1980’s)
Utilizes selected TRIZ-based tools to predict and prevent possible
undesired events emerging in the process or a as a result of evolution

Directed Evolution (1990’s)
Utilizes extended set of Patterns/Lines of Evolution to generate an
exhaustive set of potential scenarios of system positive evolution

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Evolutionary Approach versus
Traditional Trial & Error Method
Psychological Inertia

Trial & Error in evolution:
Traditionally, majority of trials
fail because they are influenced
by psychological inertia.

Product
Evolution

Psychological Inertia
Evolutionary Approach: Majorityof trials are productive because
they follow defined Patterns of
Evolution.
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Product

Evolution

How Can One Control Evolution?
Influence on the system at crisis point
Possible trajectories (attractors)
Realized trajectory:• Easy to predict• Difficult to influence

Bifurcation (branching) points:• Difficult to predict• Easy to influence

Caesar and Napoleon, Bismarck and Churchill, Lincoln andRoosevelt – all shrewd and successful politicians used controlling
evolution through influencing the system at crisis points
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Non-Linear Evolution and Forecasting
Crisis (bifurcation or branching) points
Possible trajectories

Realized trajectory

Linear portion of trajectory

Short Term
Planning actions andresults

Long Term

Mid Term
Managing the nearest crisis.
Bridging the results of shortand long term predictions

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

First zone of critical decisions

 Mass demand Technological feasibility
 Adequate overall technological and social
environment

Control of general
direction ofevolution andevolutionary
resources

DE is Based on Patterns of EvolutionSystems evolve not randomly, but according to objective
patterns
Patterns can be identified based on the analysis of historicaldevelopment of technology, markets and social trends
Identified patterns can be purposefully used for systemdevelopment, avoiding numerous blind trials

Patterns of Evolution:
Common threads between
evolving systems.

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Patterns of Evolution: The History

1960s – strongest principles from the 40 Innovation Principles
set by Genrich Altshuller (Dynamization, Self-service, etc.)

1975, spring – the first set of Patterns of Technological
Evolution by Genrich Altshuller (Static-Kinematics-Dynamics)1975, fall – Boris Zlotin started teaching Patterns ofTechnological Evolution in St. Petersburg

1981 – first hierarchical structure (sub-patterns or lines of
evolution) by Boris Zlotin

1989 – new system of patterns of evolution published in thebook Searching for new ideas by Altshuller, Zlotin, Zusman andFilatov
2009 – updated system of patterns of evolution utilized in the
Directed Evolution software

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

15

Evolution Toward Increased
Dynamism
Line: Transition to Multifunctional Performance Increasing system
Non-Dynamic
Non-Dynamic
SystemSystemSystemSystem with
with
Changeable
Changeable
Elements
Elements

SystemSystem with
with
Variable
Variable
Components
Components

dynamism allows
functions to be
performed withgreater flexibility
or variety

Line: Increasing Degrees of Freedom
Non-Dynamic
Non-Dynamic
SystemSystemSystemSystem Changeable
Changeableatat thethe Mechanical
MechanicalLevel:
Level: with
with aa Hinge,
Hinge,
Hinge
Hinge Mechanism,
Mechanism,
Flexible
Flexible Materials,
Materials, etc
etc..

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

SystemSystem Changeable
Changeableatat thethe Micro-Level:
Micro-Level:
Phase
Phase Transformations,
Transformations,ChemicalChemicalTransformations,
Transformations, etc.
etc.
16

Field (action, influences) evolution
Changes of fields

Remember!

1. Mechanic field

M Th Ch E M

Evolution direction

2. Thermal field
3. Chemical field

Fieldscombinations
M

4. Magnet field
5. Electrical fieldM

Th

6. Electromagnetic field∑

7. Combination of fields

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

E

Ch

Assessment of Evolutionary Potential

Prior Art
New development
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

18

Ideation Directed Evolution ®Process# IP protection plan

Cause-effectdiagrams

1
2
3

DE
Questionnaire

#
1
2
3

# Evolution events
1……………..

2……………..

3……………..

4……………..

5……………..

6……………..

………………

………………

………………

………………

………………

………………

1 ……………..
2 ……………..
3 ……………..

1

Past# Evolution scenarios

Development plans
Short term Middle term Long term

4

Today

Future5# Failure
Prediction

32

Evolution
Patterns
andLines# Problems
1……………..

2……………..

3

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

1……………..

2……………..

# Ideas# Concepts

1……………..

1……………..

2……………..

2……………..

3……………..

3……………..

……………..

……………..

4……………..

45……………..

5……………..

6……………..

6……………..

Directed Evolution Software

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Directed Evolution Software Tools
Experts
interview

DE Questionnaire

Cause-effectdiagram

System investigation

Patent search
and analysis

Literature /Internet search

Bank of
Evolutionary
Alternatives

Inventive
ProblemSolving

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

FailurePrediction

Evolution
Scenario
Development

Directed Evolution for Massage Systems
Spa with weight scale
Existing Foot Spa

Vibrator/heater/blower/source of magnet field,
electrical influents,
microwave, etc.
New product line

Air bag + brush

New product line

New product line
Flexible bucket

New product line

New product line

Hair
dryer

New product line

Dry/wet massager
with vibrator andheaterTreadmill with massage
New product line

New product line

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Bottom up shower

Directed Evolution Project
Evolution of Detergent for Washing Processes?
Ph Factor Changes
High PhArea with high Ph

Low PhCopyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Tablets with solvable base
Water
TextileArea with low Ph

Technology + Business

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Hybridization of Washing Processes and Detergent
Evolution (Co-Evolution)

New technological ideas

High -Techdetergent.
Hybridizationof chemical
processes
and physicalfieldsWashing
Process andDetergenthybridization.
DetergentmatchesmachineCopyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Washing
machinewithadjusted
detergent
cartridges

New business ideas“Printerkind” modelof market –makingmoney oncartridges

Cartridge
withInternetconnection –producermails
cartridge
to user

Cartridge
service
accessfromoutside ofhouseRoute Protection with Patent Deconstruction
Patent block

Route to future

Variantof future
Variantof future

Patent fence
Dangers

Variantof future

Variantof future
Selected
variantof future
Variantof future

Starting
position

Variantof future
Variantof future
Variantof future

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

DE for Competitive Intelligence

Utilization of Directed Evolution techniques for Competitive Intelligence
allows unveiling all promising directions for evolution for a given area,
estimating which directions could be selected by competitors based on
information about their traditions, experiences and specific resources.

It is possible to establish basic criteria and events as early indicators
confirming preliminary conclusions. Monitoring and analyzing
competitors’ publications, statements made by employees, new products,
patents and other information from open sources will allow verification ofpredictions.

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Directed Evolution for
Enhancing Decision-Making Ability

Possible options for
system evolution

Opportunity forcreation of patent
fences and patent
blocks
Rapid
Developmentof Ideas with
TRIZ
(weeks)A PRACTICALY EXHAUSTIVE
Set of Options

as
e
d
I
ss
f
e
o
n
e
tion austivalu
cum fore exhcAual ars be
d
a
r
G
ye
0
5
30 –

Time

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Ideation International I-TRIZ Publications

Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Who is“Director of
Evolution”?
I-TRIZ Master – has evolutionary
Intuition, can lead complex DE projects
I-TRIZ Specialist – can lead IPS, AFD andselected DE projects, adjust TRIZ tools for
specific projects
I-TRIZ AFD Practitioner – can participate incomplex problem solving projects with combination of
IPS and AFD (Failure Analysis and Failure Prediction)
I-TRIZ IPS Practitioner – can participate in complex
problem solving projects
I-TRIZ User – can solve “light” creative problems
Copyright 2001-2009 Ideation International Inc.

Thank you!

blzlotin@ideationtriz.com

31

Directed Evolution Project

Vehicle of the Future

Energy Consumption and Waste per One Mile forDifferent Vehicles

Fuel production andtransportation

5.１ Mj630% energy
consumption
compare to
regular vehicle

Fuel production and transportation

Rectifier and Battery

2.7 kgof CO2

Hydrogen Vehicle

Energy for driving

Hydrogen production via hydrocarbons reforming

Electromotor

Electricity
production andtransmission

Hydrogen production

Electricity production

89% energy consumption compare to regularvehicle390% energy
consumption
compare to
regular vehicle

Electromotor
Fuel cell

0.17 kg ashes andsulfur from coalO.3 kgof CO2Hybrid Propulsion System

Electric Vehicle

26 Mj

Excessive
weightO.38 kgof CO2

Energy for driving

Energy consumption
for excessive weight

Hydrogen production via electrolysis

43 Mj

Combustion engine

Hybrid Vehicle

Hydrogen Vehicle

Energy for driving

29 Mj

5.６ MjRegular Vehicle

430% energy
consumption
compare to
regular vehicle

Excessive
weightElectromotor
Fuel cell
Hydrocarbons reforming
0.7 kg active organic
waste from reforming

0.1 kg ashes andsulfur from coal1.63 kgof CO2

Fuel production and transportation

Evolution of Integrated Systems
Start of the systemevolution

Success of the firstsystem generation

Loser’s integration

System Characteristic

2+3+4
1
3

1

4

2

1
2
Time

Different systems
compete at the start

4
Time

System 1 – winner,competitors are frozen

3

Time

System 1 – loser,
systems 2,3,4 win
togetherFirst Big Evolutionary ShiftHybrid Car Today
Mechanical connection
Transmission

Fuel tank
Microprocessor

Internal combustion engine

Electrical connection
Wheel
Battery

Inverter

Motor/Alternator

Attention!!! This is only the start of Hybridization!

First Patent on Hybrid Car
Henri Pieper 1909

Evolution of Hybrid Systems
Line of Merging Systems

Line of Element Adjustment

System System
A
BA
B Independent systems

A+ B

Possible system components

Connected systems
Partially-matched system

A
Today’s
hybrid
car

B

A

B

Two systems in one device

Partially integrated systems

9

Low-matched system

9Highly-matched system

A B

Strongly integrated systems

AB

Completely integrated systems

Evolution

Uniform system

Gasoline
Thermalpower 100%

Thermalpower 69%

Alcohol
C2H5(OH)

Loser

Comparison of Vehicle Elements

LoserCombustion Engine versus
Turbine Engine
1961 Chrysler TurboFlite

Problems of
turbine engine
Problem 1

Narrow zone of turbine
efficiency

Combustion engine Turbine engine

Efficiency
rpm

rpm

Problem 2

Complicated design oftransmission for turbine~2000 rpm

>30.000 rpm

Possible solutions
for problems inturbine engine
Problem is solved via
utilization of hybrid in which
the engine always works in
optimal regime
Problem is solved via
utilization of electricaltransmission and the motorwheel system

Problem 3

Turbine blades must be
made from very expensive
material with high thermal
resistance

Problem is solved via
utilization of ethanol withlower burning temperature

Problem ４

Very high precision oftreatment is necessary

Problem is solved via
utilization of bladelesstrubineHigh temperature offlame
Complicated andexpensive designComparison of Vehicle Elements
Electrical power train

Mechanical power train>30000 rpm

Loser~6000 rpm max

Mechanical transmission

Alternator

Battery

Electrical
Motor/AlternatorTwo-directional electrical current flow:• Battery rotates motor in normal situation• Motor/alternator charges battery in braking

Russian truck БелАЗ-549 with electrical power train

Electrical Motor + Wheel
Japan

Bladeless Turbine Engine

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) have developed
and built a radial flow gas turbine that is very rugged,
low-cost and easy to repair.

Systems for Hybridization

Futuristic Hybrid Car

Hybridcar
today

Motor/Alternator
Fuel tankinside wheelwith alcohol
Microprocessor

Ethanol
and water
mixtureBattery

Wheel

H)
O
(
5
H
C 2 H 2O+

TurbineengineElectrical
power
train

TurbineengineAlternator

ElectricalconnectionMore Effective and Less Expensive!