2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE

President’s Report to Colleagues

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

In Memoriam: David Fuller

3

Calendar-at-a-Glance
An Interview With Raymond Merriman,
President of Merriman Market Analyst

I wo uld like to sharewith you some of the
I F TA u p d a t e s a n ddevelopments over the
past months.

13 Bear Market Rally in the Midst?
17 The Principle of Infinite Growth
21 Does Your Member Society Want to Hostan Upcoming IFTA Conference?
23 Congratulations New CFTes!
24 Member News
25 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
26 IFTA Update Call for Submissions and Rate
Card
29 Board of Directors

Next Issue: June 2019
Submission Deadline: May 15
Education Lounge articles: Send
submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
All other content: Send submissions toadmin@ifta.org.
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

Dear IFTA Colleagues,

Education Lounge
5

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a notfor-profit professional organization incorporated in 1986.

IFTA Webinars

Since the last webinar program update,
IFTA director Tom Hicks has put together
two more webinar sessions. The firstsession, held in late January, was titled“Introduction to Swing Trading” and waspresented by keynote speaker Avramis
Despotis. The second webinar, “Trading
Opportunities in 2019,” presented by
Daniel Gramza, president of Gramza
Capital Management, Inc., was held on
March 26.
If you have not had a chance to attend orview the past webinars, make sure you
don’t miss our 2019 webinars. For more
information and how to register, please
visit our website.

IFTA 32nd Annual Conference
UpdateAs most of you know by now, our next
conference will be held in Cairo, Egypt,
on Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6thof October, 2019, at the Marriott Zamalek
Hotel. The IFTA AGM and conference cocktail party are scheduled to take place thenight before the conference commencement. I am happy to announce that the conference website has been launched, andconference registration is now available.
For all updates and developments related
to the upcoming conference, please visit
the IFTA Annual Conference website:
https://ifta2019cairo.com/
On behalf of the hosting society, ESTA, I
look very much forward to meeting you at
the IFTA 32nd Annual Conference in Cairo!
Last, but not least, I would like to thankall member societies who shared updates
and news with us from your local societies.

IFTA

32nd Annual Conference
5–6 October 2019
Marriott Zamalek Hotel
Cairo, Egypt

Sharing information, knowledge, andexperience is and always will be, in spirit,
the reason why IFTA continues to exist.
Hope to see you all this year in Egypt at
the IFTA 32nd Annual Conference!
Best regards,

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 2In Memoriam
David Fuller, Fuller Treacy MoneyDavid Fuller, known for his signature Behavioral TechnicalAnalysis approach and globally recognized chart seminars,
which will be celebrating their 50-year anniversary in October
2019, passed away on Tuesday, January 15, 2019.
The following is an excerpt from a tribute written by David’s
business partner, Eoin Treacy.
It is with the deepest regret I inform you David passed away on the 15th at his homein Devon surrounded by family, which is where he wanted to be. He is survived by his
wife, Graham, and his two daughters, Grayson and Laurel.
David had a giant heart, with room in it for everyone he met, and it was that trait which
I personally found most inspiring from our years of working together. David was always
willing to give anyone the benefit of the doubt and gave many successful financial professionals their first leg-up in the industry, most particularly, at his original company,
Chart Analysis.
I’m certainly one of those David championed, and I owe everything I have achieved to
his kind and encouraging tutelage.
In speaking with people over the last couple of weeks, one sentiment came throughabove all others: that life might not be eternal, but his legacy is. David was a pioneer inthe field of behavioural analysis and was among the most noted proponents of pointand figure charting. Cutting through the jargon, messiness and, often, intentional complication, he travelled the world teaching financial professionals the merits of looking
at markets from a behavioural perspective. That idea was iconoclastic 50 years ago,
but it is widely accepted as common sense today.
The one thing I believe everyone who ever met David would have been impressedby was his infectious optimism. He believed in the best in people and the ability ofhumanity to continue to progress despite the obstacles we put in our own way. Even
Continued on page 4

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 3

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

Topic

STANZ
(New
Zealand)

Various

Epsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are free to

ATAA(Australia)

Various

Various

Varieswww.ataa.asn.au

CSTA
Chapters(Canada)Various

Various

Varieswww.csta.org

STA

VariesOne Moorgate Place, Chartered Accountants
Hall, 1 Moorgate Place, London

VariesKatie Abberton, info@sta-uk.org

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors are welcome,first visit free.
Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA andplan social and educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry
professionals and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play avital role in their communities by connecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the second
Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

2019

Date
April

May

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

9Monthly Meeting

STA

To be announced

6:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

22

Presentation: Volume At Price: Not all prices are equal!

NTAA(Japan)Paul McLaren, CMT, CFTe,
MSTA, Managing Director,
Enhance Your Options Pty Ltd

6:30 pm–
8:00 pm

higashino3z@gmail.com

23

Presentation: So What's Your Trouble with Options?

TASS
Paul McLaren, CMT, CFTe,(Singapore) MSTA, Managing Director,
Enhance Your Options Pty Ltd

7:00 pm–
9:00 pm

tasstao@yahoo.com.sg

25

STA Diploma Exam, Part 2

STA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London"Nippon Technical Analsyts Association(NTAA)
3-3 Nihonbashikabutochō
Chūō-ku, Tōkyō-to, Japan,
Zip-code:103-0026""CMC Singapore
9 Raffles Place#30-02 Republic Plaza
Tower 1
Singapore 048619"
London School of Economics, London

1:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/education/

25

CFTe II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; http://www.ifta.org

29

Presentation: Volume At Price—Not All Prices Are Equal!

CSTA(Canada)Toronto CFA Society, Suite 2205, 120
Adelaide St. W Toronto Ontario Canada

Noon–
1:30 pm

Reagan Yuke, CSTA business manager
bm@csta.org

1

IFTA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

7

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website
Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline, and fees deadline
Presentation: Navigate Big Debt Cycles—Market Outlook in 2H2019

Paul McLaren, CMT, CFTe,
MSTA, Managing Director,
Enhance Your Options Pty Ltd
NA

14Monthly Meeting: Price does not align to time

TASS
Margaret Yang Yan, CFA(Singapore)
STA
Kevin Bull

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonNA

31

IFTA Journal Call for Papers submissions deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

2

7:00 pm–
9:00 pm
6:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

NA

newsletter@ifta.org

NAjournal@ifta.org

Continued on page 4

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 4

Calendar continued

2019

Date
June

Jul

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

11Monthly Meeting

STA

To be announced

6:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

12

Geneva - LocationPoint®-Trading – read the chart like a map!

SAMT

6:00 pm

https://www.samt-org.ch/events/

13

Zurich - LocationPoint®-Trading – read the chart like a map!

SAMT

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonManagement Joint Trust SA Rue de Hesse
1, 1204 Genève
Volkshochschule Zürich Bärengasse 22,8001 Zürich
StayAhead Training Centre, London

6:00 pm

https://www.samt-org.ch/events/

6:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/education/

6:30 pm

https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

NA

www.ifta.org

1

STA Diploma Exam, Part 1

STA

Gilbert Kreuzthaler, CEO of
AgenaTrader.com
Gilbert Kreuzthaler, CEO of
AgenaTrader.com
NA

9

STA Summer Party

STA

NA

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path, Session 2 application deadline
IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-September
release)Certified Financial Technician (CFTe II) Examination

IFTA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London
NA

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application,
outline and fees deadline
IFTA 32nd Annual Conference: History Speaks

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

IFTA &
Hosted by
ESTA
IFTA

VariesMarriott Zamalek Hotel, Cairo, Egypt

VariesNA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org/publications/journal/

Aug

15

Oct

TBA
2
5–6

Nov

15

Dec

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles and newcontent (mid-December release)
IFTA Journal Web publication

In Memoriam, David Fuller continued
that is a contrarian view in the financial
industry today, where we are assailed withnegativity and the view the future will beworse than the past. That optimism, however, was not blind, but tempered by the
belief in sustaining power of improving
standards of governance. His clear belief
in the ability of emerging markets to infact emerge formed the basis for his longtime optimism on the potential for Asia
to develop while never forgetting that
“Governance is Everything.”

David’s willingness to go against popular
opinion and to air views that were truly
iconoclastic is a clear example of his rareability to be absorbed by the markets,
while simultaneously sustaining a big picture perspective. That commitment to relyon the evidence provided by the chartsrather than to be ruled by emotions led tosome of his best calls and was a constantfeature of his commentary. The view that“markets are manmade resources for us
to harvest when the timing is right” wasa fringe opinion back when David wasstarting out and arguably still is today inmany segments of the market.
David led by example. He had a deep
regard for our subscribers and felt a keen
responsibility for their welfare. He spentlong hours in the evening perfecting his
written copy because for him, nothing lessthan his best work was acceptable. He
turned down numerous opportunities tomanage money over the years because
he believed taking responsibility for otherpeople’s money was too onerous. Instead,he took the revolutionary step of telling
people exactly what he was doing with his
own money, warts and all, so they could
draw their own conclusions about to dowith their money. That is still not a popular
strategy in the market today.
This service was a vocation for David, andit was his fondest wish that it persist without him. It’s as much a vocation for me
as it was for David, and I look forward to
taking it onward for the next generations.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 5

Education Lounge

An Interview With Raymond Merriman,
President of Merriman Market Analyst
By Ron William, CFTe, MSTA, IFTA Development Director
Raymond A. Merriman is the president of Merriman Market Analyst, Inc. and founderof the Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA) Merriman Market Timing Academy.
He is a Commodities Trading Advisor (C TA), financial market analyst, and, since 1982,
editor of the MMA Cycles Report, a monthly market advisory newsletter that specializes
in stocks, interest rates, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and soybeans. He also
writes a daily and weekly report for more active traders.
Merriman’s formal education includes a bachelor of arts degree in psychology from
Michigan State University in 1969. He did post-graduate studies in psychology at
Michigan State University and Oakland University from 1969–1971, before taking on a
position as a project coordinator for an adolescent group program with the Michigan
Department of Social Services, where he developed a group counseling model known
as “RGD” (Reference Group Dynamics). This model was later adopted by high schools
in Ohio and Michigan in the 1970s.
His introduction to financial markets began in 1978. Two years later, he became a studentof Walter Bressert, a legendary cycles analyst in commodities from Tucson, Arizona.
Under Walter’s tutelage, Merriman began his research on the correlation of planetary
cycles to cycles in the Gold market, based on Walter’s methodology of cycles analysis,
which resulted in the publication of The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations to Gold

Price Cycles in 1982 (out of print). This was the first book to show a quantitative researchcorrelation between cycles in a financial market to cycles in the cosmos.
Between 1982 and 1986, Merriman was a frequent guest contributor on the Financial
News Network (FNN). He served as an investment executive with Prudential Securities(1986–1987) and Shearson Lehman Hutton (1987–1990), before becoming an accounts
vice president of retail commodity futures with Paine Webber (1990–1994). He also
authored several books on financial market timing, including the five-part series on The
Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing (written 1997–2012), The Sun, Moon, and Silver
Market (2006), and the annual Forecast Book (since 1976), which outlines his projections a year ahead of time for financial markets, the world economy, and political trends.
In addition, he has also written two primers on financial market analysis. One, titled
Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics, first published in 1994, is a classic primer oncycle studies. The other, Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market
Timing, is a basic textbook on the relationship of geocosmic correlations to financial
markets. From 1997 through 2011, he wrote
the five-volume series on The Ultimate Book
on Stock Market Timing, which became thebasis for the curriculum used in MMTA. In all,these books took 14 years to complete andcomprised over 1,600 pages.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

In late 2015, his Solar/Lunar Correlations to Gold Price Reversals: Secrets of a Gold
Trader, was published. His works are currently published in German, Italian, Dutch,
French, Russian, Serbian, Czech, Vietnamese, Japanese, and, of course, English. In
2013, he created the MMTA, a two-year training course in Merriman’s market analysis
and market timing methodology developed over the past 30 years. Students took 99
classes in this two-year period, plus several competency tests, and completed papers
on seven major research projects identifying historical correlations between the analysis
methods and historical performance.
At present, the original graduates, now known as apprentices, are doing internships
by analyzing international markets for the MMTA International Cycles Report. It is amonthly subscription report overseen by Merriman that started in early 2015. These
apprentices are being trained to become financial market analysts with a specialty infinancial market timing, utilizing the MMA methodology.
In early 2013, Merriman was awarded the Gold Star by Market Timing Digest of
Amsterdam, Netherlands as the “Best Market Timer of 2013." He was the only contestant (of 12 who were followed) to successfully identify all 15 major turning points in the
U.S. stock market by their criteria. By contrast, the second-place finisher successfully
identified 12. In 2014, Merriman received the Gold Star award again as "Best Market
Timer of the Year" from Market Timing Digest, this time correctly identifying 20 of 21
reversal dates in the U.S stock market well ahead of time.
Merriman is also well studied in the field of astrology. He is a Professional (Certified)Life Member of the American Federation of Astrologers (PLMAFA since 1972), as wellas through ISAR, the International Society for Astrological Research (2000). In 1995,
he was the recipient of the UAC Regulus Award for "Enhancing Astrology's Image as a
Profession." in 2012, he received the UAC “Regulus Lifetime Achievement Award,” only
the fourth person ever to receive this honor.
He is currently serving his seventh nonconsecutive presidency of ISAR, a decision
reached in a two-step process involving over 1,200 members from over 25 national
centers around the world, not least in part due to his participation in helping formulate
the certification criteria back in the mid-1990s, which has since resulted in this model
being viewed as the international standard for astrological professionalism.

page 6

Education Lounge
Merriman currently resides in Cave Creek, Arizona, and Farmington Hills, Michigan,
USA. He can be reached at rmerriman@merrimanmta.com or mmacycles@msn.com,
or via the MMA website at www.mmacycles.com.
RON WILLIAM (RW): What is your background in financial markets and how do you
incorporate cycle analysis or market timing?
RAYMOND MERRIMAN (RM): I was introduced to financial markets in 1978. In January
1980, as Gold was making its then all-time high around $850/oz, I met legendary cycles
analyst Walter Bressert, who came to a lecture I gave in Tucson and wanted to know if
there were geocosmic correlations to the Gold market. He had noted that in the threecases of Mars turning retrograde and direct, Gold formed its yearly high and low, ineach case, within a week. The correlation was stunning.
He gave me all the daily charts of Gold futures trading up until that point, and invited me
to learn about cycles from him at several workshops he presented between 1980–1983.
I took him up on it, learned his cycles’ methodology, and produced The Gold Book,
the first quantitative study ever done on planetary correlations to market cycles, via
Walter’s brilliant methods. Along the way, I discovered new cycles and new patterns
within the cycles that I published in that work, to add to Bressert’s impressive findings.
The book came out in November 1982. Up until that time, I had 35 subscribers to myfinancial markets newsletter. After the book came out, I was flown in to do a live interview with Financial News Network (FNN), from which my subscriber list jumped to 350.
I became a regular contributor on that show until 1986 and never looked back.
In 1986, I decided to become a CTA (Commodities Trading Advisor), took the test, passed
it, and joined Prudential Bache Securities. I was no longer allowed to be interviewed
on FNN because of compliance rules with the firm. A year later, I moved over to thefirm I always wanted work for, E.F. Hutton, where I became an investment advisor. But
then Shearson Lehman bought them out. In 1990, I moved to Paine Webber Inc., whooffered me the position of vice president of retail commodities and futures accounts
at its regional center in Farmington Hills, Michigan. In 1994, I retired from Wall Street
and went exclusively into my own advisory market timing service, the Merriman Market
Analyst, Inc., for independent traders (and some institutional traders and banking/brokerage houses too).

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

page 7

Education Lounge“Linear cycles are theI have since written several other books on financial market timing,
RW: Must practitioners use one or the other, or can they beincorporated within a blended approach?
including my classic five-volume work titled, The Ultimate Book onframework by which
Stock Market Timing, covering over 1,600 pages and taking 14 years
to apply geocosmic, or RM: Well, astronomic, or cosmic, cycles are the basis for market timto finish (1997–2011). These five books introduced the reader first tonatural, cycles. But they ing when combined with rhythmic cycles of the market. Perhaps thethe study of cycles—long, intermediate-term, and then short-term. It
difference here applies to the work of professional astrologers, which
are not static.”
then correlated each type of cycle to various geocosmic cycles, based
is mostly consulting and counseling a client going through personalon actual historical results, using monthly and yearly charts of theissues in life. My work as a market timer uses the same planetary
London and New York stock exchanges going back to 1690 (from the Foundation for
cycles and aspects as an astrologer, but applied to market tops and bottoms, not to
the Study of Cycles), weekly and daily charts of the DJIA going back to 1928, plus daily
personal, individual issues in life. Astrology used this way is much more objective thancharts of the NASDAQ and Nikkei index. I don’t think anyone has ever done such an
the role played by today’s modern consulting astrologer. It lends itself well to statistiextensive research study on the correlation of these planetary cycles to actual market
cal, even quantitative studies that are nearly impossible to do when studying individual
cycles of these various lengths. It was quite an eye-opener for me, for the results werecharacter and life changes.
not what I expected. They were better than I imagined.
Another difference may be that astrologers consider certain aspects as favorable or
RW: Mainstream industry and academia place a higher weighting on linear cycles
unfavorable to one’s life circumstances. In market timing, it doesn’t matter whether
within their models. How would you describe the importance of natural law to
it is a favorable or discordant aspect. All that matters is that when it hits, the market
skeptics in the field?
sentiment—and hence trend—very often changes. A favorable aspect can just as often
RM: Linear cycles are the framework by which to apply geocosmic, or natural, cycles.
correlate to a high as to a low in financial markets. In personal astrology, a favorable
But they are not static. They have wide orbs of time when they manifest. The use of
aspect usually pertains to a peak in one’s life, and a discordant aspect to a low point
planetary cycles can narrow the time bandin one’s life. These distinctions are not“Geocosmic patterns refer to mathematical, spatialof those orbs for cycle troughs and crests
present in financial markets. Each aspect
relationships between planets to one another and to theconsiderably. Likewise, rhythmic market
simply represents a reversal of trend or
cycles help one determine when planetary
earth, as they orbit around the sun. When they form certain change in investor sentiment/psycholcycles will be most accurate. A planetary harmonics with one another…then that often correlates with a ogy, and that becomes very valuable incycle that occurs within a rhythmic cycle
the work of market timing, which is what Ichange in collective behavior or attitude.”time band for a top or bottom is muchdo, and for trading, which is also what I do.
more accurate than the same planetary cycle occurring outside the cycle time band.
The two studies work very well together, much better and more accurate than working
RW: Your work often refers to “geocosmic signature” patterns. What are they, andhow is this used within your analytical process?
with only one and not the other.
RM: Geocosmic patterns refer to mathematical, spatial relationships between planets
RW: What do you feel is the key difference between astronomy and astrology?
to one another and to the earth, as they orbit around the sun. When they form certain
RM: Astrology is the study of the correlation of planetary cycles to cycles in humanharmonics with one another, say 90, 120, or 180-degree distances apart, then that often
activity. Astronomy sees no correlation between cycles in the cosmos and cycles incorrelates with a change in collective behavior or attitude, which translates often to ahuman activity. I am not sure most astronomers are even aware of cycles in humanreversal of trend in various financial markets, depending on which planets are involved,
activity, and certainly very few are aware of the correlation—not causation—between
and which markets are in a time band for a cyclical high or low. This correlation is so
the two types of cycles of astronomic and human activity.
high, occurs so often, that is stunning. Yet, most investors have no idea because their

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

belief systems cannot allow for such a possibility. So, this study remains one of thebest kept secrets known to those who actually study it, perhaps even with a skepticaleye at first, and who aren’t restricted by a bias against the possibility, or put off by theamount of study necessary to unlock these doors of knowledge that aren’t taught inuniversities any longer. But the knowledge is available to those who want to learn, whocherish the opportunity to do one’s own research and discover a treasure trove of correlations that is wide open. I have just touched the tip of the iceberg, and I can honestly
say that nothing gives me as much pure bliss as the discoveries afforded by this study.
RW: In your latest webinar, you hosted an educational segment on different types ofmarket cycles. Can you describe them, with supported market examples, and offer
guidance on how all cycle versions can be used within a holistic approach?
RM: That’s a very complex question, and one that would require a very detailed andcomplex answer. In fact, it would take a book to cover this topic properly.
But, let me try to explain it as simply as I can in the time and space afforded here.
All cycles are part of larger cycles that are multiples of two or three times the lengthof that starting point cycle. Conversely, all cycles comprise smaller cycles that are divisions of the greater cycle by either two or three. For example, an 18-year cycle in the
U.S. stock market is a half-cycle to a 36-year stock market cycle, which is a half-cycle
to the greater 72-year stock market cycle.
At the same time, the 18-year stock market cycle comprises either two nine-year halfcycles or three six-year sub-cycles, or both.
You must also understand that each of these cycles has an allowable orb of time in which
to unfold. Cycles are not static, but dynamic. Generally speaking, an allowable orb oftime for a cycle to unfold is 1/6 of its mean length. An 18-week cycle, for example, has
an orb of three weeks, which means it usually bottoms every 15–21 weeks. An 18-year
cycle would have a general allowable orb of three years, which means it can occur
anytime within a range of 15–21 years. That is the range of a “normal” 18-year cycle.
That means 80% of the time, or more, we anticipate that the 18-year cycle will usuallyoccur at a 15–21 year interval from the previous 18-year cycle. In many cases of actual
study, this general rule for cycles and their orbs work fairly well. When you do a formal
study, you may find that different markets may require slightly more allowance than apage 8

Education Lounge
1/6 orb to include at least 80% of the historical cycles associated with that mean, andothers may require far less than a 1/6 orb. In fact, an 18-year cycle with an orb of three
years has been the case in 10 of the 12 occurrences in the 200+ years of the U.S. stock
market’s history. The other two times it contracted to only 13 years. Likewise, the 72-year
cycle in U.S. stocks would have a general orb of 12 years, but in actual cases, this cycle
has unfolded in a tight range of 73–77 years (which makes it more like a 75-year cyclewith a two-year orb, so far).
When a cycle occurs before its normal time band, it is a “contracted” cycle. When it
occurs later than its normal time band, it is an “expanded” cycle. Contractions andexpansions happen less than 20% of the time and are known as “distortions” to thenormal cycle. “Distortions” are important because they tend to happen when longerterm cycles are also unfolding. When a longer term cycle is occurring, the last phaseof that cycle (the next shortest subcycle that makes up the greater cycle) will distort
about 50% of the time. Otherwise, distortions are evident in less than 20% of cases.
Of importance to those who study the correlation of planetary cycles to market cycles
is that longer term market cycles usually occur when very long-term planetary cycles
are also unfolding. In fact, distortions and normal 18-year cycles always tend to happen
when longer-term planetary cycles are in effect. That is one of the beauties of geocosmic
correlations to financial market cycles. When a financial market cycle is due, it has arather liberal range of time when it can occur, and even more liberal when it can distort.
But those time bands can be narrowed considerably when one overlaps their expected
cycle due times with long-term planetary aspect present within that period of time.
For example, let’s look at the last 18-year cycle, which occurred March 9, 2009. It was
21 years and 5 months past the one that preceded it in October 1987. That was the longest 18-year cycle in the history of U.S. stocks. We knew that a “normal” 18-year cycle,
measured from October 1987, would ideally be due 2002-2008, and even into early
2009. This is shown as the black horizontal line on the monthly chart of the DJIA below.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

page 9

Education Lounge
from October 1987, they occurred in April 1994, October 2002, and March 2009. In
fact, if you go back through the last 50 years, you will see that a cycle low occurred inevery instance at the 5–8 year interval. The last 6.5-year cycle, for example, occurredin August 2015 in the DJIA, and in February 2016 in many other indices, like the S&P.
That period too was an overlap of several long-term cycle time bands with long-term
planetary cycle time bands as shown on the next chart.

However, the strongest (longest) geocosmic planetary cycle that was also in effectaround this time was the five-passage series of Saturn/Uranus oppositions, in effectNovember 2008 through July 2010, which is illustrated by the red horizontal line on
the monthly chart. This 45-year planetary cycle is one of only two long-term planetary
signatures that has correlated 100% of the time to nine-year or greater stock market
cycles. The last time it had occurred was in 1965–1966, which was the first time the
DJIA touched 1000 (February 1966). At that time, this new all-time high in the DJIA did
not last very long—maybe two days—and then it proceeded to decline 37% over the
next four years.
If we overlapped the time band for the 18-year cycle, due 2002–2008 (or early 2009),
with the Saturn/Uranus opposition of November 2008–July 2010, one can observe thatthey overlapped in late 2008 through early 2009, which is when the 18-year cycle lastbottomed and the current one began.
You can also see that within this cycle of 21 years and 5 months (18-year) cycle, theDJIA exhibited a classic three-phase pattern of 7- to 8-year cycle phases. Measured

RW: In your experience, is it necessary to have experience in both trading andastrology in order to be a successful financial astrologer?
RM: No, not at all. A financial astrologer is basically an analyst, or rather a market timer. He/
she does not need to be a trader in order to be a successful analyst or market timer. There
are many good analysts and market timers who do not trade, but they do a valuable job

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

An Interview With Raymond Merriman continuedof analyzing data for markets. In fact, not trading can
be a benefit to an analyst because it enables one to
be more objective in his/her analysis and forecasting of financial market moves. On the other hand,
knowing financial astrology—having the proper
tools for reliable market timing—will assist one in
the task of being a successful trader.

“The biggest challenge may be dealing with athe geocosmic market timing indicator is saying
profession—financial market analysis—that is
the opposite. Usually, in cases like this, I go withthe reversal signal of the geocosmic studies. But,
overwhelmingly both ignorant of and biased
against astrology without even so much as looking there are times when the chart pattern or technicalstudies prove to be more correct than the astro
at how it works.”
indictors of a reversal. Not many, but some.

RW: What are some of the challenges of being a financial astrologer?
RM: The biggest challenge may be dealing with a profession—financial market analysis—that is overwhelmingly both ignorant of and biased against astrology without evenso much as looking at how it works. It is an attitude that basically believes astrology
doesn’t have any value whatsoever—that it doesn’t work because it shouldn’t work—without even investigating how it works.
Yet, even with that pervasive and closed-minded attitude in the profession, and within
the broader investment community as a whole, there is also a very rewarding support
system of those who do see the value of astrology as an excellent market timing tool.
Primarily, these are traders, who are fully aware that “timing is everything” (well, almost
everything) in the quest to being a successful trader.

RW: In hindsight, which market calls were the toughest and why?
RM: It’s always difficult! Well, maybe not so much when chart patterns, technical studies, price projections, cycle studies, and geocosmic studies are all in agreement. But I
estimate that’s probably only about 30% of the time. That is, the market is in congestion
about 70% of the time according to Charles Drummond, whose work I respect greatly.
In congestion, you never know if it will break out to the upside or downside, or remain.
Congestion is actually easy to trade, but not easy to forecast which way it will breakout
ahead of time, unless Uranus is present. But then, that by itself, creates a whole otherset of challenges.

The most difficult time for me as an analyst was probably 2012–2015, when Uranus
squared Pluto. Based on the few times this very long-term planetary cycle formed hard
aspects in the past, I expected the stock market to fall hard. And it didn’t. It kept making new all-time highs. I was basing my forecasts on what happened in the past with
Within the practice itself, financial astrologers have the challenge of often having tofinancial markets (always a financial crisis, panic) rather than the deeper meanings ofdecide which of various conflicting signals to give most
Uranus and Pluto and what it portended in terms ofimportance to. For instance, when there are several
monetary policy. Pluto represents intervention and the“I realized that the central bank’s
geocosmic signatures in effect in a short span of time,to engineer, manipulate. Uranus is unorthodox,
intervention policy of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate attempt
it usually corresponds to a reversal in financial markets
thinking outside the box, experimentation, and trying
around the middle of that geocosmic convergence. Yet, Policy) and QE (quantitative easing) provided something radical and new, never tried before. Towardso much liquidity that a huge bull market in the end, I realized that the central bank’s intervenif one or more of those signatures involves aspects with
Uranus, markets may instead explode higher, above stocks was created at the expense of savers tion policy of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy)_ and QE
resistance, or plummet severely lower, below support,(quantitative easing) provided so much liquidity that a
who made nothing for being prudent andand not reverse. Uranus highlighted periods may behuge bull market in stocks was created at the expensesaving their hard-earned money.”more inclined to a breakout than to a reversal. Decidingof savers who made nothing for being prudent andwhich is the more likely manifestation is a challengesaving their hard-earned money. It was a whole newand may involve resorting to other market studies in effect at the time, such as technicalworld, and I could see that, but I didn’t expect it would be so bullish for stocks until it
analysis or pattern recognition of charts. And in many cases, even when Uranus is not
was well underway.
present, these other studies may be giving one type of signal (bullish or bearish), while

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

RW: How did you learn from the experience?
RM: What did I learn from that experience? That central banks have a lot of power (Pluto)
and can drive the markets. The markets are not an example of “free markets” anymore.
The cycles still worked, but they were not as impressive in the selloffs as they used to
be prior to 2008, or even prior to 1987, now that I think of it. I learned that I have to thinkof geocosmics not strictly in the sense of their historical correlation to various financial
markets, but also in terms of the geopolitical and banking climate in effect at the time. I
have to think more causally than correlatively when it comes to astrology and markets.
I have to be more of a puzzle-solver, and not just a numbers-mania analyst.
RW: JP Morgan famously cited "Millionaires Don't Use Astrology, Billionaires Do."RM: Yes, he used well-known astrologer Evangeline Adams as his personal consultant.
RW: What are the current trends of interest within the field of financial astrology?
RM: It’s all about research, I think. The field is so vast with so many research possibilities, that it is like finding a treasure that has been hidden for centuries. We’ve juststarted touching the tip of the iceberg. Its huge because there are so many markers
just waiting to be studied and researched for correlations with planetary cycles. It isa very fertile and exciting ground for someone who has the software and passion forthis kind of research, as I do.
RW: Are there many prominent people that use it?
RM: It’s hard to say. I only know the people who use my studies, and some hold prominent positions in banking, funds, even government. Many are traders with seats on
the exchanges. But the issue is confidentiality. Not many want it known that they use
someone who uses astrology in their market analysis and forecasting.
RW: In your latest Forecast Book for 2018, you describe expectations of “TheGlobal Reset.” What is the significance of this event, and how best can we position
ourselves for it?
RM: On December 21, 2017, the winter solstice, both the Sun and Saturn entered
Capricorn for the first time since 1870. Saturn will remain there until the end of 2020.
Again, it took much of that Forecast 2018 Book to describe the importance of this cosmic
event, so I am not going to reiterate that here.
But suffice it to say that I think we are in a similar period in 2018–2020 as we were in

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Education Lounge
1870–1873. That period started out with a great post-war (Civil War) economy. But by theend of the period, the United States began its longest economic depression in history(1873–1879). The world and the United States appear to be in a very strong economic
period again following the Tax Reform Act, which just happened to pass in the UnitedStates on December 21, 2017, the day the cosmic event “The Great Reset” I refer to,began. But I tend to think like former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, who said "In the current(Tax Reform) law, it's going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year. And
then in 2020, Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff, and he's going to look down,
and that [stimulus] will essentially be withdrawn at that point.” This is what I think too. It
may not last six years, but I think it could easily last two or more years.
RW: Timing the economic business cycle continues to be a prolific area of research.
Within the field of astrology, McWhiter is often cited for her work on the moon's
north node. How does this cycle work and what stage of the cycle does your worksuggest?
RM: Her work has been amazing. It is based on the correlation of the economy to the18.6-year Moon Nodal cycle. Basically, the economy bottoms when the Moon’s North
Node is in Aquarius. This was the case in 2009. It peaks when the North Node is in
Leo, 9–10 years later. We are there in 2017–2018.
My own research isn’t far off from her findings. I found the economy bottoms when the
Node moves from mid-Aquarius to mid-Scorpio, a period that lasts about 4.5 years (think
2008–2012), and it peaks anywhere from mid-Leo to mid-Taurus (think 2017–2021). The
next low in the economic cycle via this method is not until about 2026-2030.
RW: One of your key themes is that “Bankers go Bonkers,” supporting the probabilityof a surprise rally within the banking sector. What would be the underlying driverof this, in terms of both the astrological and economic/market overlays within yourwork?
RM: Yes, whatever sign Uranus is in often correlates with a seven-year period in which
the sectors of the economy ruled by that sign boom then bust. Uranus is in Taurus,
2018–2026. Banks are ruled by Taurus, so I expecedt the banking sector to peak out
and then collapse, maybe 77–93% off their highs. Now, a year later, I am not so sure it
relates to banks and banking stocks. Taurus also rules agriculture and especially live
cattle, so it may be more in that field that we see prices booming, and the collapsing,instead of banks or along with banks. The price of meat and even foods could multiple

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
An Interview With Raymond Merriman continued

5–8 times from their lows of 2017–2018. Already we see the price of live cattle risingsmartly since Uranus went into Taurus in mid-May 2018.
RW: Global debt remains a major problem, not least within the United States. What
does your analysis suggest about this mounting tail-risk and the current rise of the
U.S. Treasury 10-year yield into the 3% threshold?
RM: My analysis suggests that debt is the reason for the next economic panic—again.
This relates to the 36-year Saturn/Pluto conjunction in 2020, followed by Saturn/Uranus
square 2021–2022.
RW: Geopolitical risk remains a key concern for many investors, notably with theongoing US–North Korea negotiations, coupled with mounting tensions with Russia
and Iran. What does your work suggest about geopolitical risk in 2019?
RM: The United States was “founded” July 2 (or July 4), 1776, when Mars (war) squared
Neptune. Transiting Neptune will make a T-square to this natal square 2020–2022.
That’s when I see a major geopolitical risk. And of course, Donald Trump is born with
Mars rising, and his Sun conjuncts the USA Mars, so astrologically, he could becomea “war” president.
RW: 2018 marked the 50-year anniversary of the Astrological Association ofGreat Britain, scheduled to be celebrated with a rich diversity of lectures at theirconference. What can people expect from your keynote lecture and workshop thatwill be hosted at this event?
RM: Well, it has been given and you were there, Ron. I think attendees got their money’s
worth. It was a very good group of attendees, and a very good experience for me. I
enjoyed meeting so many people interested in financial astrology.
Thank you, Ron, and best wishes for much success in your own journey into this fascinating study.

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IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

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Bear Market Rally in the Midst?
By Robin Griffiths, FSTA, and Ron William, CFTe, NLP
At this time last year the world was in an equity bull-market. Almost all major indices
had a pattern of rising highs and lows above rising 200-day moving averages. It wasa globally coordinated bull-run. In price terms, the rise was not the biggest, but had
already been the longest lasting trend in history. From a timing perspective, the market
was on overextended and vulnerable to coming to an end. This started with emerging
markets when President Trump started to put tariffs on imports to the USA.

Traditional seasonality patterns have diverged from their normal path. This was clearly
the case in Q4 2018, during what should have been a festive ‘Santa-Claus’ rally, but instead
we experienced a sharp correction. This was soon eclipsed by one of the happiest newyear price rises in 30-years (Fig 1). For this reason, the bulls have good reason to cheer theold market adage “As January goes, so does the year,” otherwise known as the ‘January
Barometer’ [JB signal], made famous by Yale Hirsch, of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In the end all markets broke down out of a primary uptrend into a bear phase. Setbacks
of up to 15% are normal in bull trends, however, this time the setbacks were so big thatmost markets can only now expect a rally in a bear, and not a return to the old bull-trend.
At present, the only major market not to have broken down is India. The strongest
western market is the USA, but even it has problems.

However, our analysis remains on a caution footing. One key risk is growing liquidity
divergences which signaled an exit of $25.5 billion ETF NET flows from US listed
equities. This indicates a sobering unwind from the irrationally exuberant lofty levelsof a record 10-month streak.
Looking back at the price action, our study of JB signals demonstrates a success (hit)rate of approximately 50% during the cyclical bull-market from 2009. In statisticalterms, this is still viable performance, but from a charting perspective, the signal remains

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 14Bear Market Rally in the Midst? continued

Education Lounge

within make-or-break territory. Failure to hold upside momentum above overhead
resistance zone between 2720-2780, will confirm a bear-market rally. Under this
scenario, the greater risk is for a reversal back under the 10-year dynamic regression
trend near 2440, then 2347 (January low), with downside scope into 2100.
The bear case also falls in-line with our analysis of ‘January Barometer’ signals during
volatile market regimes (Fig 2, bottom-right quadrant). Closer examination of the scatter
diagram highlights a positive skew during uptrends, which is simply trend extrapolation.
However, a more volatile cycle leads to perverse negative surprises. Fig 3 highlights
a broader review of seasonality patterns showing further headwind pressure frommid-April onwards, as part of the “Sell-in-May” (SIM) phenomenon, when liquidity contracts due to reduced trading during vacation time. Prior divergences in seasonality
increases the probability of a faster and sharper drop.

Breadth is a key part of our market analysis that also furthers pressure (Fig 4). Whilethe number of long-term trends above their 200-day average has recovered up to apromising 60% threshold, it remains fragile under the short-term trend pattern of lower
peaks. In fact, the same message is amplified by overbought conditions on the shortto-medium-term trends, above their 20- and 50-day averages (Fig 4; B & C).

It serves to recall that when the S&P 500 fell 24% at the December low, 94% of the constituent stocks had fallen below their 200-day averages. In the collection of world markets,
only 25% are now above their 200-day lines. The conclusion is that we are in a bear market
now, but having a temporary short-term rally. Interestingly, the once high-rising FAANG
stocks that had been a primary driver behind the bull-market is now pressured a 5-monthoverhead resistance zone, weighed over by a flat-lining 200-day average (Fig 5).

However, we must keep in mind the larger decennial cycle predicts that the ninth yearof the decade will tend to have a modest rally (Fig 4). The worst periods are normallythe seventh and eighth, leading into the first three years of the new decade with a weak
range bound period. We have been expecting for some time that the economy would
tend to hold until 2020 and then be weak into 2023.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 15Bear Market Rally in the Midst? continued

Education Lounge

A bottom-up analysis of the individual complex signals divergence between highperforming stocks Netflix and Amazon, juxtaposed by fallen angels Apple, Google,
and Facebook. Time will tell which stocks will lead us out of this two-way volatile market
regime. We suggest watching this dynamic for further clues.
In relative terms, it seems clear that the only western market that can really go boom
again is the USA, and to do this, it will need to have two conditions fulfilled. The first isin place. This is that the Fed has to stop shrinking its balance sheet and hiking rates.
Mr. Market now assumes this to be the case. We may even get more QE if needed. The
second condition is a stop to the trade war. This is being talked, about and a temporary deal is possible. However, we doubt it can last, as in the future, the new cold war
for the USA is not against Russia but China, as the latter grows to challenge for thenumber one slot.

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IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

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The Principle of Infinite Growth
By El-Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe
In 1930, Ralph Nelson Elliott built his theory based on the assumption that the stock
market is growing constantly from day one and that growth unfolds as a rising motive
wave that swells up and grows with time. The growth of the stock market looks like thegrowth of a tree. Day one's starting point looks like the root of the tree. The tree canstay alive only if the root doesn’t get cut off; otherwise the tree will die.

new complete cycle and the previous corrective wave will be the second. After the one
big degree motive wave is completed, a corrective wave of the same degree will begin,and that full cycle will be wave number one and wave number two of another full cycle
in a bigger degree also starting from point zero. (See Figure 2.)

Accordingly, R. N. Elliott supposes that the starting point must not be violated to keep
the stock market alive and growing forever. (See Figure 1.)

Conclusion

Point zero represents the starting point for each complete cycle on all various degrees
from sub-minuette degree to grand super cycle degree.
From point zero, the stock market begins its first complete cycle, which consists of eightwaves; five of them begin and end in a rising direction as a motive wave, and the otherthree begin and end in a declining direction as a corrective wave. Once a full cycle iscompleted, another full cycle begins.
Again, starting from point zero, the previous motive wave will be the first wave in the“It is for the market like as the root for the tree”

Diagonal Shapes

Many technicians think that a diagonal must be shaped as a wedge, whether is contracting or expanding. In fact, the main condition to determine if there is a diagonal, wedge
or not is whether or not there is an overlap between wave four and wave one. In otherwords, is there a false breakout or not. (See Figures 3 and 4.)

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
The Principle of Infinite Growth

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continued

Actually, the lengths of wave three and wave four are only responsible for shaping the
diagonal wedge formation. (See Figures 5, 6 and 7.)

Figure 3
Figure 3 shows that there is an overlap between wave four and wave one; there is afalse breakout. So, it is a diagonal wedge.

Figure 5
Figure 5 shows the most recognizable shape of a diagonal triangle wedge. It is a contracting diagonal triangle wedge.

Figure 6
Figure 4

Figure 4 shows that there is no overlap between wave four and wave one; there is nofalse breakout. So, it is not a diagonal wedge, although it is the shape of diagonal. It is
an impulse wave.

Figure 6 shows the same diagram as Figure 5, with one simple difference. The wave
three here is longer than the wave three in Figure 5. Because of this, the formation of
the diagonal is shaped as a channel.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
The Principle of Infinite Growth

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continued

Figure 7
Figure 9
Figure 7 shows the same diagrams as in Figures 5 and 6, with the same simple difference. The wave three here is longer than the wave three in Figures 5 and 6. Becauseof this, the formation of the diagonal is shaped as an expanding diagonal triangle.

Figure 8
Figure 8 shows a copy of Ralph Nelson Elliott's talk about the diagonal triangle in his
first book, Wave Principle. Please note words “channel” and “triangle.”

Figure 9 shows an example of a diagonal shaped as a channel in a Gold weekly chart as awave (1) of wave [A] of a current zigzag wave.

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Get Started. Visit Elliottwave.com/wave/CEWA“Is it just me, or has Wilson gained some confidence since he became a CEWA?”IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 21

Does Your Member Society Want to Hostan Upcoming IFTA Conference?
Dear IFTA Member,
IFTA is soliciting hosting proposals from all member societies forthe 2020 and 2021 IFTA Conferences. The deadline for proposals is 30 June 2019.
The conference host will have the opportunity to raise the national
profile of their organization and has the potential to increase revenue for the ongoing work and support of their society. A portionof the conference proceeds will go to the hosting society.
Background: The International Federation of Technical Analysts,
Inc. (IFTA) was incorporated in 1986 and is a global organizationof market analysis societies and associations. This not-for-profit
federation has four main goals:
 Provide a centralized international exchange for information,
data, business practices, local customs and all matters related
to technical analysis in various financial centers.
 Provide meetings and encourage the interchange of material,ideas and information for the purpose of adding to the knowledgeof colleagues of individual societies and associations.
 Foster the establishment of local (country) societies of technicalanalysts around the world.
 Encourage the highest standards of professional ethics andcompetence among technical analysts worldwide.
The first annual IFTA conference was held in Tokyo in late 1988.
Since then, IFTA has continuously held an annual conference inlocations throughout the world that is hosted by a different hostsociety in October or November each year.

Conferences have been held in the following cities:
1988 Tokyo, Japan
1989 London, England1990 Montebello, Canada
1991 Mexico City, Mexico
1992 Dublin, Ireland
1993 New York, NY USA
1994 Paris, France
1995 San Francisco, CA USA
1996 Amsterdam, The Netherlands
1997 Sydney, Australia
1998 Rome, Italy
1999 Niagara-on-the-Lake, Canada
2000 Mainz, Germany
2001 Tokyo, Japan
2002 London, England2003 Washington, DC USA
2004 Madrid, Spain2005 Vancouver, Canada
2006 Lugano, Switzerland
2007 Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt
2008 Paris, France
2009 Chicago, USA2010 Berlin, Germany
2011 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
2012 Singapore
2013 San Francisco, CA USA
2014 London, United Kingdom
2015 Tokyo, Japan
2016 Sydney, Australia
2017 Milan, Italy
2018 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2019 To be held in Cairo, Egypt

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

The host society will be responsible for the following: Site selection
 Contract negotiations
 Hotel logistics
 Sponsorship packaging. solicitation and contracting
 Programming Exhibits management Special event coordination
 Audiovisual production
 Registration
 Marketing Financial Management

page 22

 Ideas you may have for a spouse/partner events parallel tothe conference If you already know, a list of speakers you think you would
like to invite to the conference Names of potential sponsors
 The name and contact details of your conference chair Any additional information you think is important to evaluate
your proposal

Suggested information guidelines in a submitted proposal are: Why your society is best positioned to host the 2020 or 2021
Annual IFTA Conference?

 If possible, the proposed conference location should be within
30-45 minutes taxi-drive from an international airport

Please submit your proposal to Linda Bernetich at IFTA
Headquarters, admin@ifta.org by 30 June 2019.

 Conference venue should be held in the same hotel as where
delegates are staying (or at least within a short walking distance If you already have ideas on possible conference venues,
please include this information
 Information about the location for the proposed conference
including lists of possible venues, transportation overview,
cultural and touristic points of interest
 Climatic conditions between the months of September andNovember A theme or themes for the conference you would like to host Preliminary ideas you may already have for off-site conference
eventsIFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

Congratulations New CFTes!
Tamotsu Aoyagi (NTAA)
Valentin Aufrand
Mohd Firdaus Bin Mohd Osmani
Kong Chun Hau
Akif SH Din (STA)
Masaki Eihara (NTAA)
Tatsumasa Furuya (NTAA)
Yoko Haneda (NTAA)
Tetsuji Hayashi (NTAA)
Pedro Hermida López (IEATEC)
Samson Shui Yan Hui
Takashi Iguchi (NTAA)
Toru Imai (NTAA)
Takefumi Inada (NTAA)
Ryo Ito (NTAA)
Hitoshi Iwata (NTAA)
Rahul Kapoor (ATA)
Ehtesham Alam Khan

Ryuta Koishikawa (NTAA)
Hiroko Kuroda (NTAA)
Tsuyoshi Kurosawa (NTAA)
Tuavai Marie-Bornand
Harvey Morrison
Daiki Nakata (NTAA)
Etsuro Osaki (NTAA)
Marnie Owen (AAPTA)
Rohan Rajan Patil
Taichi Sakuma (NTAA)
Naoki Sano (NTAA)
Sudharsan Sarathy
Naoya Sasaki (NTAA)
Takahiro Sato (NTAA)
Daniel Schnyder
Kevin Smith
Keisuke Tsuchida (NTAA)
Agata Witkowska

page 23

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 24

Member NewsATAA (Australia)
Australian Technical Analysts Association

STAF (Scandinavia)
Scandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening

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STAF hosted a successful event in the new year, featuring guest speaker Ron William andhis 2019 investment outlook. There was record-breaking attendance and a high-energy
audience, with great questions and commitment to the study of markets. STAF will be planning more events in the future and looks forward to welcoming many from the local andregional community.

ATAA is pleased to announce that its Home Study Course is now available on the ATAA
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The course is for students of technical analysis who wish to learn at their own pace. It
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The Home Study Course is a proprietary e-learning course. Although website based,
it is fully downloadable and may be used online or offline by PC, Mac, iPad, or Android
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ATAA partnered with the Society of Technical Analysts (STA), the technical analysis
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advice on technical analysis report writing. The course material is largely PDFs (over500 pages) and includes videos and some dynamic graphics.
Information on the course, content, and costs, including the introductory videos, canbe found on the ATAA website. You can also register and pay for the course from thewebsite.

Left-to-right: Erik Hansén, Market Analyst at IG; Ron William, speaker; Anders Söderberg, former Chief
Technical Analyst at SEB; and Anders Haglund, STAF Chairman and Executive Chairman at Safe Return
Asset Management.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1
Member News

page 25

continued

STA (United Kingdom)
Society of Technical Analysts
The new year started with a new chairman in charge—Tom Hicks. Tom will be known tomany in the technical analysis community, having served on the IFTA and STA boards forseveral years. Tom is co-founder of IFTM Capital, a systematic trading business implementing technical analysis. A fixed income trader and ex big four consultant, he has over 15
years of experience in the financial industry as a fixed income trader and sales person. As
the new STA chairman, Tom looks forward to building on the growing membership throughprofessional affiliations and collaborative events, and to promoting and training the next
generation of technical analysts.
We are excited to have a new venue for our monthly meetings. From January onwards, allmeetings will be held at One Moorgate Place, London, home of the Institute of Chartered
Accountants in England and Wales. Our speaker programme continues to be engaging, with
future speakers including Connie Brown, Steven Goldstein, and Robert Carver.
Education remains at the core of the STA’s activities. The STA’s long running Diploma Part 2
course started in mid-January, with a strong cohort of students. For those unable to travel to
London for the weekly sessions, we of course have the world-class e-learning Home Study
Course. This new version of the course, which covers the syllabi for both the STA and IFTA
examinations, offers 15 subject teaching units written specifically for the course by leading
market technicians. Learning at your own pace rather than in a classroom, the Home Study
Course is designed for those who need a truly part-time study option with maximum flexibility! For full details visit https://www.sta-uk.org/hsc/.
The next STA Diploma Part 1 exam was held in London and overseas on Monday 4 March,and the next STA Diploma Part 2 exam will be held on Thursday 25 April. For more details
on how to register, please email info@sta-uk.org
To keep up to date with the STA and its events, follow us on Twitter @STA_ORG or like our
Facebook page.

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
Exam dates

Exam 1

Exam 225 April 2019Oct 2019

ClosedTBA

Registration deadline
Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php

Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

Session 1

Session 2

Closed31 July 2019

Application/Outline Deadline

2 May 20192 Oct 2019

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 201915 Mar 2020

(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/ /(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 26

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSThe IFTA Journal is an annual publication establishedby the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It
is collated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It contains
a wealth of resource material and is an excellent reference for anyone interested in technical analysis.

Credibility and Recognition

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents covering developments in technical analysis in global markets. The
Journal reaches leading practitioners and students oftechnical analysis throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments impacting, either directly or indirectly, the field of technicalanalysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in the investment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas of technical analysis and those that connect with it.

Submitting Contributions

Licenses and CopyrightLanguage

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

Writing Style

Unless another license is noted, we will assume thatyour contribution is under this license.

Registration and submission of contributions is online
via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor at journal@ifta.org.
Contributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.
Pa p e r s s h o u l d b e w r i t t e n i n a t h e s i s s t y l e.
A guidance can be found at the following link:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

We require all submissions to include the author’s signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of thisdocument.

Editorial Timeline (2019 only)
DecemberCall for papers distributed

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.

May 1

Deadline for all submissions

May 18Papers distributed for review

The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

June 14

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

June 21

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 15

Submission to printerOctober

Conference distribution

November

Web publication

Referencing

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by figure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text format,
as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in .GIF or.JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF format
in case it is required for printing purposes. An Excel
spreadsheet supporting your submission may also be
included.

For more information, see our website
www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 27

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONS
Selection of Contributions

Contributions are selected by the IFTA Journal Editorial
Committee based on their content. Please understandthat we cannot accept all contributions. Selection
depends on the number and quality of the submissions
and the editor’s findings. Selections are not negotiable.

Remuneration

Publication Agreement
The following is an agreement between

IFTA is organised and operated by volunteers and supported by its members. We ask that you understand wewill not be able to pay for contributions.

author(s) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc., concerning

Questionsa work written by the author(s).

For more information, please contact journal@ifta.org.

Author's Grant of Rights

The author(s) grant the publisher exclusive first publication rights in the work, and further grant a non-exclusive
license for other uses of the work for the duration of its copyright in all languages, throughout the world, in all
media. The publisher agrees to publish the article in the IFTA Journal. The publisher shall include a notice in thework stating “Copyright [author’s(s’) name(s)].” Readers of the article may copy it without the copyright owner’s
permission only if the author(s) and publisher are acknowledged in the copy, and copy is used for educational,
not-for-profit purposes.

Author's Ownership of Copyright

Copyright in the work remains with the author(s).

Warranty of Authorship

The author(s) warrant to the publisher that the article is original and that he/she is/are the sole author(s) and havethe full power to make this agreement. The author(s) indemnify the publisher against any losses and other expenses,
including reasonable attorney’s fees, after final judgment of any claim or action against any of these warranties.
Author(s) name(s)Author(s) signature(s)DateUpon acceptance, please fax or email completed Publication Agreement to: IFTA Headquarters, (fax) +1 (301) 990-9771
or (email) admin@ifta.org.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 28

RATE CARD
Editorial and Readership Profile

The annual IFTA Journal publishes original, well-documented papers and articles on a diverse range of
topics related to the technical analysis of financial andcommodity markets. The Journal provides colleagues
and interested persons with continuing education intechnical analysis. The broad editorial content helps
colleagues remain informed of the developments andleading body of work in technical analysis.
The IFTA Journal is the only international journal of technical analysis reaching a global audience of interested anddedicated practitioners of technical analysis throughout the financial community. It is read by analysts, fundmanagers, financial writers and other decision-makers
throughout the international financial industry.
The IFTA Journal is distributed online, and a print copy
is provided to IFTA colleagues and delegates at theannual IFTA International Conference, building awareness and visibility and providing extra exposure for yourmessage.

Circulation and Readership

Total Circulation: Published online
Coverage: Worldwide
Readership served: Institutional Analysts, AccountManagers, Fund Managers, Investors and Students
Publication Schedule: December

Editorial Committee and Staff

Editor: Dr. Rolf Wetzer Staff: Linda Bernetich

Organizational Affiliation
International Federationof Technical Analysts, Inc.
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
TelephoneEmail+1 (240) 404-6508
journal@ifta.org

Issue Deadline (2019 only)
May 1

Material Specifications

Full-page ad format = 8.5” x 11” (215 x 280 mm) 300 dpi
JPG or PDF. Include crop marks and room for bleed.

Printing

Perfect binding Journal/Book Format, 8.5” x 11”, 80#
gloss weight. Aqueous coating on covers. (This is aclear water-based coating that adds a high-gloss finish and protection to the Journal, and will give yourprinted advertisement a richer look.)

General Information

Principles Governing Advertising in the IFTA Journal.
These principles, developed jointly by the Editorial
Committee of IFTA, are applied by IFTA to ensure
adherence to the highest ethical standards of advertising and to determine the eligibility of products andservices for advertising in IFTA print and electronic
publications.
As a matter of policy, IFTA will sell advertising spacein its publication when the inclusion of adverting does
not interfere with the mission or objectives of IFTA. The
appearance of advertising in IFTA publications is neither
a guarantee nor an endorsement by IFTA.

Advertising Acceptance Policy

All advertisements must be submitted in writing.
Advertising is subject to approval by IFTA. All advertisements must be non-discriminatory and comply with allapplicable laws and regulations. IFTA reserves the right todecline, withdraw and or copy edit at our discretion. Everycare is taken to avoid mistakes, but responsibility cannot
be accepted for clerical or printer’s error.

Payment

Prepayment by check, credit card (Visa, Master Cardor American Express) or wire transfer is required for all
ads. Bank details will be provided to you upon request.
Cancellations and Changes

We will send out an acknowledgement confirming yourorder. You will be required to check that your ad andscheduling are correct. Any changes, cancellations orcorrections must be communicated to IFTA in writing or
by fax, email or mail prior to the submission closing date.

Advertising Rates (pricing in USD)
Back cover (cover 4)$1,800.00

Inside back (cover 3)$1,500.00

Inside front (cover 2)$1,300.00

21 x 28 cm

Full Page$ 1,200.00

18 x 18 cm

2/3 page$1,056.00

1/2 page$823.00

1/3 page$545.00

1/4 page$300.00

18 x 12 cm
12 x 18 cm
18 x 8 cm
6 x 25 cm
8.5 x 8 cm

Orders, Materials and Payment

Please send all orders, materials, payments and related
communications to IFTA at admin@ifta.org.

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 1

page 29IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
GHANA—BSG* Bastiat Society Ghana https://bastiatghana.org
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.ataindia.in
INDIA—ATMA* Association of Technical Market Analysts www.atma.ac
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com

President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
mohamed.elsaiid@ifta.org* Developing

Director Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe (MATA)
nmihsan@gmail.com

IFTA Update Schedule
The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
June Issue

All content due May 15

September Issue

All content due August 15

December Issue

All content due November 15

March Issue

All content due February 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

Vice President Middle East and Africa and Conference Director Tamer Gamel Edin Hassan, CFTe (ESTA)
tgamal@gmail.com
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Americas Jeanette Anne Schwarz-Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. CFTe (AAPTA)
optnqueen@aol.com
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Treasurer and Website Director Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
karin.roller@vtad.de
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Development Director Ron William, MSTA, CFTe, CMT (SAMT)
ron.william@ifta.org
Education Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.deExamination Director Saleh Nasser, CFTe, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@ifta.org
Secretary, Development Director and Asia-Pacific Affairs Takashi Nakamura, MFTA, CFTe (NTAA)
nakamtak@mse.biglobe.ne.jp
Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Marketing and Webinar Director Tom Hicks, MSTA (STA)
tom.hicks@live.co.uk

Staff

Executive Director Charles W.L. Deale, FASAE, CAE
Senior Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Accounting Dawn Rosenfeld
Editor Lynne Agoston
Production Manager Jennifer Olivares

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org