2005.11.04

Investment for Disaster Reduction-A Case Story of Marikina City,
Metro Manila, PhilippineHaruo HAYASHI, Ph.D.
Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto University, Japan

2005.11.04

Marikina City & Metro Manila:
17 cities and 10 million people

Earthquake Risk, Local Magnitude
7.2, 350-year return period
Flood risk, 10-year return period

PHIVOLCS

2005.11.04

Why we started this project in Marikina:
It is for “EqTAP” Master Plan
• EqTAP is a five year multi-national
collaborative research project (14 countries)
for the development of “Master plan for
Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Reduction in
Asia-Pacific Region” (1999-2004)• Risk Management Framework/Case Study
Approach• Metro Manila has been selected for case studysite because of high seismicity and resulting
impact2005.11.04

Risk Management Framework• Management Cycle (PDCA)– Risk assessment– Strategic planning• Stakeholder Involvement– Workshop: Sense of ownership• Holistic Framework– Disaster reduction as a tool for sustainableeconomic development– Multi-disciplinary array of countermeasures2005.11.04

Marikina Fault & Marikina River:

PHIVOLCSPHIVOLCSMARIKINA: A World Class City
Marikina as a little Singapore

2005.11.04

2005.11.04

Residential Damage Estimates in Marikina City
Complete
Collapse
13,000+ Buildings

Building Risk Map
Type F
Damage state 4(Complete collapse)

PHIVOLCS

2005.11.04

City of Marikina as ourpartner because of her
excellence in selfgovernance and highmotivation for disaster
reduction

2005.11.04

What this project did in Marikina:• Risk Assessment– Interactive risk assessment• Strategic Planning Framework– Management by Objective– Top-down approach• Comprehensive Earthquake Disaster Reduction(CEDR) Program > Action Plan
• Performance Measurement Scheme– Monitoring Tool

• Project Management Framework as the basis

2005.11.04

Framework of “Investment for Disaster
reduction” Project
WindowofOpportunity

Project
Formation

Risk
Assessment

Strategic
Planning

Resource
Assessment

ActionPlan

2005.11.04

Step 0: Project Formation
Goal
Knowing about earthquakes and damage they can cause

Local Input

Expert Input

Deliverables

Lack ofunderstanding ofearthquake damage

Visual Images ofmajor earthquakes
such as Baguio,
Kobe, Turkey andTaiwanClear understanding
about earthquake
damage among core
stakeholders

1995 Kobe Earthquake

Can Marikina Still Be
Little-Singapore
After Earthquakes ?
Haruo Hayashi
EDM
Kyoto University

2005.11.04

Step 1:Problem identification WS (January)
Goal
Assessing earthquake risk locally and interactively

Local Input

Expert Input

List of local assets
stakeholders want toprotect fromearthquakes

Risk Assessment
method (GESI method
by UN) that damage
state for individual
structure can beobtained

Deliverables

Risk Assessment
results tailored for
Marikina City

2005.11.04

Earthquake Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy of
PHIVOLCS andMarikina City

2005.11.04

Step 2: Risk assessment and Goal
Setting WS (May)
Goal

Setting Project Goal

Local Input

Expert Input

Deliverables

Comprehensive Land
Use Plan: CLUP(2000)
Marikina Vision(2002)

Linkage between
earthquake disaster
reduction andsustainableeconomicdevelopment

Decision to develop
Marikina
comprehensive
earthquake disaster
reduction program2005.11.04

Basis for Long-term Prosperity:
Land Use and Economic Changes• Marikina is basically a “bedroom community” - aconsiderable number of people work outside of
the city.(CLUP)• …this trend is likely to change within the next

10-15 years. (CLUP)• As jobs are provided closer to homes, Marikina

shall no longer be known as a "bedroom
community. (Web site)2005.11.04

2005.11.04

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Needed:A Disaster Reduction Plan
• Marikina City must expand its vision, goals andobjectives to include disaster reduction• What should be the City’s disaster reduction

goals and objectives?

• What disaster reduction targets, programs andprojects should Marikina pursue?

2005.11.04

Step 3: Plan-concept WS (July)
Goal
Policy & Strategy, Program & Project Identification

Local Input

Expert Input

Deliverables

Strategic Planningstructure used in
CLUP

Concept Plan Matrix

Comprehensive
Earthquake Disaster
Reduction Program
consists of 1 goal,
10 objectives,

Strategic Planning

Broad/Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Goal
Objectives
Target (Quantitative/Time)
Policies
Focused/Specific
Actions1

Critical Facilities

2

New Buildings

3

Existing Buildings

4

Education

5

Research & Technology

6

Public Information

7

Land Use Planning

8

Institutional Initiatives

9

Economic Development

10

Sources of Finance

Mitigation

Prepared

ResponnessseRecovery2005.11.04

DPRI Planning Process has led to Local
Advocacy for Mitigation Policies
Mitigation
Mitigation Options,
Options, Policies,
Policies, andandCountermeasures
Countermeasures
PhysicalPhysicalInformational
Informational

Strategic
Strategic••Upgrade
Upgradeinfrastructure
infrastructure••Strengthen
Strengthendesign
designandandsafety
safetystandards
standards
forfornew
newbuildings
buildings••Retrofit
Retrofitexisting
existingbuildings
buildings••Secure
Secureandandelevate
elevatecontents
contents••Education
Educationandandoutreachoutreach••Public
Publicinformation
information••
Programs/exercises
Programs/exercises
totoincrease
increasereadiness,readiness,response,
response,
recoveryrecovery••LandLanduseuseplanning,planning,
zoningzoning••LocalLocalcapacity
capacitybuildingbuildinginitiatives
initiatives••Sustainable
Sustainable
development
development••Financial
Financialresources
resourcesdevelopment
development••Environmental
Environmental
controls
controls

2005.11.04

Step 4: Implementation WS (October)
Goal
Resource Assessment

Local Input
Individual
Evaluation of
216 policies

Expert Input
Nominal Grouptechnique

Deliverables
Evaluation results of
216 policies interms of internaland external
resource availability

2005.11.04

Comprehensive Earthquake
Disaster Reduction (CEDR)
Program• Goal: The City of Marikina is committed toaccomplishing the following goal: to protect
human safety, property, and activities.
• Objectives: 10 Objectives reflecting 10 fields
of countermeasures• Policies: 56 Policies• Actions: 216 Actions taken by Marikina City

2005.11.04

Physical Countermeasures
1. Critical Facilities– Protect and strengthen infrastructure facilities to prevent lossof lives and damage to properties, to allow continued use, andto restore normalcy quickly following disasters.

2. New Buildings– Improve the quality of building design and standards toencourage and safeguard investment and to protect human
lives, property, and activities.

3. Existing Buildings– Identify the condition of existing buildings and take corrective
action to prevent loss of lives and properties and to allow
continued use.

2005.11.04

Informational Countermeasures
4. Education– Raise consciousness and preparedness of all citizens ofMarikina through education and training about earthquake
disaster issues.

5. Research & Technology– Identify and evaluate high risk areas through research andappropriate technologies.

6. Public Information– Formulate, maintain, and sustain a continuous public
information campaign strategy before, during, and after
earthquakes.

2005.11.04

Strategic Countermeasures
7. Land Use Planning– Realize the vision of Marikina as a little Singapore facing
minimal risk of earthquake disaster damage through a welldefined land use plan and disaster management program.

8. Institutional Initiatives– Build Marikina's capacity to mitigate, prepare, respond andrecover from a major earthquake through developing a
Disaster Reduction Plan.

9. Economic Development– Incorporate disaster management into the enhancement of
livelihoods and economic development.

10. Sources of Finance– Identify existing local sources of finance and generate
additional funding from other sources to support earthquake
disaster reduction.

2005.11.04

Step 5: Action Plan WS (November)
Goal
Action Plan Formation

Local Input

Expert Input

Deliverables

Feasibility check ofprioritized policies

Prioritization method

Action plan consistsof 113 policies forthe achievements of
10 objectives

Timing of Implementation
Objective

Policies/Strategies

Now

Soon

Later

Program/
Project

Eng

Program/
Project

Soc

Program/
Project

Policies/Strategies

Policies/Strategies

Suggested
Dept

Program/
Project

Fin

161

Program/
ProjectEdu

2005.11.04

Stakeholder-driven strategic planningworkshops produced:– a GIS-based earthquake risk
assessment– a long-term Comprehensive
Disaster Reduction Program,
identifying objectives,
policies, and programs– an Action Plan identifying
actions prioritized by time,plus assignments of leadagencies and departments

2005.11.04

How we did it with Marikina people:
Stakeholder Involvement• Bottom- up Approach– Local Government Unit as a Core Stakeholder– Community-based Capacity Building• Participatory Approach– Participation through Workshop– Sense of ownership• Outreach Mechanism– Exhibition– House Demolition Experiment2005.11.04

Five Workshop Series

2005.11.04

Risk Assessment
and Goal SettingWorkshop

July 2003

Planning Workshop:
Prepare ConceptualPlan Framework and
Implementation
Assignments

Oct. 2003

Implementation
Workshop:Prepare Detailed
Implementation Plans

Jan. 2004

Disaster Reduction
Plan Review andRevision Workshop

March 2004

Final Disaster
Reduction Plan on
Web Site

Task Five: Produce Final Products

May 2003

Task Four: Plan
Refinement and
Implementation Strategy

Problem Identification
Workshop

Project Schedule
Task Three: Prepare Conceptual
Earthquake Disaster Reduction Plan

Jan. 2003

Task Two: Data Inventory and Risk
Assessment

Preliminary Meeting

Task One:
Stakeholder User
Needs Assessment

July 2002

2005.11.04

Workshop as thinking process
Start

Generating
Generating
Ideas
Ideas
Structuring
Structuring
Ideas
Ideas

Goal

Building
Building
Consensus
Consensus

Just Like Project Management Process

2005.11.04

Through Workshops
Gradually
Strengthening
their sense ofCommitment

Unstated
Unstated
Fear/Needs
Fear/Needs
Recognizing
Recognizing
problems
problems
Recognized
Recognized
Problems
Problems
Forming/Expressing
Forming Ideas Ideas
Unorganized Ideas/thoughts
Structuring
StructuringIdeas
Ideas
Structured
StructuredIdeas
Ideas
BuildingConsensus
Consensus
Building

Sense of Ownership

Own
Ownplanplan

2005.11.04

Workshop is a powerful capacity
building tool for stakeholders
1. By Providing a deeper understanding ofissue
2. By Improving facilitation skills at workshop
setting
3. By improving oral presentation skills(including PowerPoint)
4. By giving them a sense of ownership about
the issue and the plan
5. By expanding their social network2005.11.04

July Exhibition in Marikina City:

Preserving Marikina’s Future through Earthquake Disaster Reduction

2005.11.04

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Local Mitigation Project:

BUILDING LINE

Improving Non-Engineered Housing
Construction Practice -Loading ExperimentBUILDINGLINE

Loading Equipment
Load P (tf)

25

Right
Left
Total

20

15

10

5

0
-50

0

50

100

150

200

250
Displacement δ

300
(mm)

2005.11.04

Significance of Marikina Study:• Processes– Establishing a standard procedure forparticipatory strategic planning• Deliverables– Building capacity of key local stakeholder– Making disaster reduction as a tool forsustaining local economic development– Developing a holistic framework• Forming a long-term comprehensive plan:• Conducting multi-disciplinary research:2005.11.04

Local Capacity Building throughStakeholder-based Strategic Planning• How can governments and businesses develop
the capacity for improved disaster mitigation,
preparedness and recovery through capacitybuilding stakeholder participation?
– Involve stakeholders at the outset– Avoid arbitrary imposition of top-down solutions– Provide expertise to widen stakeholder knowledge• Challenge stakeholders to deal with all aspects
of disaster management2005.11.04

Model for Successful Participatory
Strategic Planning
Model
Plan
(Contents)

Strategic
Planning
Process
ControlCommitmentby the Top
Project Budget
Scenario
Input

Workshop
Procedure
Stakeholder
Participation
Coordinator
Activity
Facilitators
Experts
Mobilization

ActionPlan

Output2005.11.04

Participatory Strategic Planningmay be successful if

1. Participants generate ideas, structure them,and reach consensus by themselves
2. Objectives and Policies, i.e. “what” part of theplan, may be formulated by the participationsof Citizens
3. Actions and Projects, i.e. “how” part of theplan, may be finished by those stakeholders
who will take part in the implementation of
the plan
4. With a help of a team of experts consisting ofmulti-disciplinary backgrounds and skills
5. Coordinator team should be formed by Local
stakeholders and Expert team.

2005.11.04

Participatory Strategic Planning is so new
and different approach in Japan that it
still has several difficulties such as
1. Difficult to get the commitment by the Top
2. Difficult to be appreciated as legitimate
work in terms of funding
3. Difficult to come up with quantitative
targets
4. Rather labor Intensive
5. Few number of good facilitators andexperts with wide interests are available2005.11.04

Our interpretation of Master plan
“ Strategy for bottom-up capacity building”• Disaster reduction should be closely linked
with sustainable development of the city andcity planning• Continuous process to improve capability• Local stakeholder initiatives helped byexperts• Integrated approach with the collaborationof many different disciplines• Customer oriented participatory approach• Looking for inexpensive but effective
countermeasures of all kinds

2005.11.04

Components of “EqTAP” Master Plan for
Promoting Community-based Earthquake
Disaster Reduction Capacity• Safety goals, values, andunderstanding• Stakeholder awareness andmotivation• Comprehensive earthquake disaster
reduction program• Outreach mechanism• Stakeholder network2005.11.04

Bottom-up Capacity Building Processes
Stakeholder Network with
Safety goals, values, understanding,high awareness and motivation
Nation-wide
ProgramMetro Manila-wide
Program
City-wide
ProgramCity
ProgramOutreach
Mechanism2005.11.04

A Follow-up:
PDC’s Involvement and Contributions
1. Initial engagement and transition to PDC
2. PDC expansion of hazards mapping and
GIS, to include flooding, for land use &economic development
3. Development of Risk Communications
Tools
4. Expanding Marikina City effort to Metro
Manila5. Comments on Key Components for
Successful Project Planning required tobuild Researcher-Practitioner-Stakeholder
Coalitions

2005.11.04

Japan-Philippines-U. S. Collaborative Planning
Process: 2004 –2006

2005.11.04

PDC Starting Point:
Sustained Feedback from Decision Makers
Education

Implementation

Training Center

Economic Dev. - Land Use

Issues:External

Issues:1. Educating citizens to prepare
2. Educating investors to buy-in tosafety3. Encouraging other cities in Metro
Manila region to carry some of the load

Mayor Marides C. Fernando
Ms. Julie Borje, Director, Center of ExcellenceInternal

1. Modifiy shaking intensity GIS
colors – red too alarming
2. 2004 theme “Invest in Marikina” –get investor buy-in
3. World Bank Report (see) – foreign
direct investment, river and cultural
heritage development projects?

Mr. Jun Aguilar, Chief, Planning Office
Mr. Melvin A. Cruz
City Administrator Engr. Alfonso P. Espiritu Disaster Mgr/EM

Issues:Issues:

1. City human resource capacity
building
2. Safety Program public involvement(barangays)
3. Education for safety in the schools

1. Size of task – where to begin? Most
actions have City Engineer as lead
2. Emergency ops – urgent need to
identify utility lines with GIS
3. Need for consulting with City
before workshops

Personal Capacity Building

Structural Mitigation

2005.11.04

Earthquake Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy of
PHIVOLCS andMarikina City

2005.11.04

Riverine Flood Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy ofMarikina City

2005.11.04

Land-use Planning Example:
Areas for Proposed Development

APD #3

APD #2

Area for Proposed Development #1

2005.11.04

Land-use Planning Example:
Areas for Proposed Development

APD #3

APD #2

Area for Proposed Development #1

2005.11.04

Used GIS to combine Land use
with Multi-hazard Maps

2005.11.04

Creating Awareness of Vulnerability for
Areas for Priority Development

2005.11.04

Risk Reduction Framework
Includes Guidelines and Templates2005.11.04

Multi-Hazard Risk Map

2005.11.04

Web Accessible GIS• A web accessible GIS system allows
users to access GIS information via theinternet.

2005.11.04

Marikina City Internet Map Viewer

Marikina City

URL: www.pdc.org/marikina

2005.11.04

1992 Flood Prone Areas & Critical Facility Locations

Flood Prone Areas

2005.11.04

Flood Prone Area
Near City Hall

2005.11.04

Peak Ground Acceleration
Near City Hall

2005.11.04

Lessons from Marikina City:Key Components for Successful Planning(1)
1. Sustained involvement by international
experts
2. Advocacy by local political leaders
3. Risk Reduction Planning Framework thatmakes sense to local stakeholders
4. Sustained feedback from City decision
makers2005.11.04

Lessons from Marikina City:Key Components for Successful Planning(2)
5. Proactive City Practitioner Advisory
Committee
6. Involvement of local subject matter
experts
7. Informed citizenry through project
participation and training
8. Awareness and lessons learned fromdisasters and emergency events

2005.11.04

Conclusion:
Researcher-Practitioner-Stakeholder
Coalitions
Our Japan-Philippines-United Statescollaborative planning process for Marikina
City, Philippines has created a ResearcherPractitioner-Stakeholder Coalition and has
led to a Disaster Risk Management Master
Planning Agenda for addressing urban risk
around the globe, including Metro Manila
and Kathmandu