Crisis and Information
Hiroe Tsubaki
Risk Analysis Research Center
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
2015/03/17

Information & Communications Statistics
2013/12, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Age (Head of Household)# & % Adjusted
Households% Prevalence of Cellular
phone including PHS% Prevalence of Smart
phone

20‐29

1369 (8.8%)

52.9

89.8

30‐39

2375 (15.2%)

60.2

84.9

40‐49

2528 (16.2%)

74.1

78.1

50‐59

2664 (17.1%)

84.3

73.2

60‐64

1739 (11.1 %)

90.2

56.0

65‐69

1456 (9.3%)

89.6

41.4

70‐79

2307 (14.8%)

84.8

30.2

80‐1161 (7.4%)

72.2

27.5

Availability of Internet through mobile phone
Age (Head of Household)% Internet Utilization atleast once a year

% Internet throughcellular phone including
PHS% Internet throughmobile phone

20‐2995.5

35.2

85.7

30‐3998.3

41.8

82.8

40‐49

96.8

51.3

75.4

50‐59

93.8

50.0

67.3

60‐64

85.1

39.2

48.4

65‐69

73.7

29.0

34.4

70‐79

63.7

24.8

25.9

80‐

54.9

23.8

24.5

General (Daily) Information Cycle for Society
Fig. is based onTsubaki(2010)
Scope and
Strategy ofISO TC 69 SC 8

Information to clarify themanagement objectives
considering the Voice of
Stakeholders into
consideration

ValueSociety(Stakeholders)

Selection

Voice ofSociety

ValueDefine
Problems

SystemInjection

Effective
Information for
implementing theconsistent actions
with the optimaldecisions

Selection
Modeling
Social Systems

Good Actions

Information fromexperts to constructuseful hypotheses for
decision to attain theobjectives

Good
Decision

SystemSystem

Implementation

Optimization

Necessary
Information for theOptimal Decision
including Ethical
Restrictions

Information management
during significant crisis• Requirements for Emergency Information• Not Exact and Accurate but Appropriate for the Necessary Actions• Prompt and Agile• Conservative and Consistent to avoid the worst situation• Compulsory• “In order to save your life just do It by this way within XX minutes”• Application of Precautionary Principle may be reasonable• In case of no Information on the impact of crisis during or just after the crisis, people
shall regard the crisis as their least favorable event and immediately decide theiractions to avoid the worst situation as possible.

Preparation of emergent information inadvance• The emergent actions shall be considered and determined carefully inadvance• The appropriate actions can depend on their residence, the family structure etc.
• The evacuation may be more dangerous than staying in the residence in some floods.

• Necessary Information for the emergent decision shall be prepared andsupplied in advance by the local government or community for the decisionand immediate risk management by the community just after or duringcrisis• The local universities and research institute should support such local
government’s activities to assure the quality of emergent information fromthe viewpoints of risk management procedures.

Requirements for previous preparation ofthe emergency information• Classification of Crisis ( disaster )• Level of Priority• Imminent or not, maybe very uncertain• Significant or not, based on the damage estimation or simulation• who, where and how• Fragility of our local community against the crisis• Life crisis or not• Crisis of the property or not• Possibility of potential chain‐reaction disasters• Possibly Predictable or not even just before the crisis• Role of Earthquake Early Warning with Emergency Reception by our cellular phones• Clear Direction• The cellular or smart phone shall be normally carried at all times• Battery Management System should be improved• Design of Necessary Information to clarify the objective and actions for local crisis
management

Role of Mobile Phone
Passive roles to collectthe information

Before the crisis○Just before the crisis◎ Emergency Alarm

During the crisis◎Information to save thelives○ Dangerous and Saferegion○ How to reach thesafest region

After the crisis○

Active roles

Public Information fromthe local government etc.
through Radio, TV,
Internet etc.
〇Useful Information for
the appropriate decisionin case of emergency◎ Restrict calls forrequesting rescue○ Automatic Collecting
Information on location ofthe holders( ex. Radiation Exposure
Estimation )〇Useful Information for
the appropriate decision
to survive

Information Cycle for Crisis
Direction in order tosave their lives

Value

Society(Stakeholders)

Selection

Voice ofSociety

Value

DefineProblems

SystemInjection

Effective
Information forprompt andeffective actions

Prepared directions
from local government

Selection
Modeling
Social Systems

Good Actions

GoodDecision

SystemSystem

Implementation

Optimization

Information for the
Optimal Decision
through mobile
information tools

So I should take my fully charged
mobile phone all the timeThank you very much for your kind attention