PROGRAM OF THE MEETINGThe 56th Annual Meeting of the Population Association of Japan
June 11-12,2004

Hiroshi Ohbuchi, President
Ryutaro Ohtsuka, Chair, Organizing Committee

Sanjo Confrernce Hall
7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan 113-0033
TEL: +81-3-5841-2320 FAX: +81-3-5841-2315
http://sanjo.nc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html

SummaryFriday, June 11
9:30〜Registration

10:00〜12:30

Theme Session 1: Gender and Population Problems
2F Large conference room
General Session 1

2F 201・202

General Session 2

BF 001

General Session 3

BF 002

12:30〜13:45

Lunch Break12:30〜13:30

PAJ Board of Directors’ Meeting

Room No. 6, Annex Building,
University Alumni Association

13:45〜13:55

Welcome Address from the Host Organization

2F Large conference room

13:55〜15:00

General Membership Meeting

2F Large conference room

15:00〜18:00

Symposium: Reproductive Health in Very Low Fertility Societies
2F Large conference room

18:00〜20:00

Welcome Reception

1F Banquet hall

Saturday, June 12
9:30〜

Registration

10:00〜12:30

Theme Session 2: Demographic Analysis Utilizing Micro Data
2F Large conference room
General Session 4

2F 201・202

General Session 5

BF 001

General Session 6BF 002

12:30〜14:00

Lunch Break

14:00〜16:30

Theme Session 3: Formal Demographic Methods and Their Applications
2F Large conference roomGeneral Session 7

2F 201・202

General Session 8

BF 001

General Session 9

BF 002June 11(Fri.), 2004
Registration

9:30〜

Theme Session 1:

10:00〜12:30

Gender and Population Problems＜Organizer＞

HAYASE, YASUKO (Former Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)＜Chair＞

TSUYA, NORIKO (Keio University)

1. The 10th year evaluation of the implementation of the Action Plan of the International
Conference on Population and Development: Gender perspective･･････OHASHI, KEITA (University of Montreal)･･････OHASHI, YASUKO (UNICEF)
2. Gender and Reproductive Rights･･････TANIGUCHI, MAYUMI (Osaka International University)
3. Gender and Reproductive Health - Learning from the Field･･････NISHIDA, RYOKO (Japanese Organization forInternational Cooperation in Family Planning)･･････SUZUKI, RYOICHI (Japanese Organization forInternational Cooperation in Family Planning)
4. Gender based on a youth reproductive health: A case of high-school students in Granada,Nicaragua･･････KOMATSU, RYUICHI (National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
5. Income Growth and Female-male Sex Ratios of Childhood Mortality in DevelopingCountries･･････UEYAMA, MIKA (Hitotsubashi University)
6. The relationship between husbands' family roles and marital fertility･･････FUJINO, ATSUKO (Kyoto Sangyo University)＜Discussants＞ NOGAMI, HIROKI (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)NAGASE, NOBUKO (Ochanomizu University)
General Session 1:

10:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ MORIOKA, JIN (Komazawa University)
1. The Effect of the Cost of Children on the Recent Fertility Decline in Japan･･････OYAMA, MASAKO (Hitotsubashi University)
2. Trend of cohort fertility and its factors in Japan･･････KANEKO, RYUICHI (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
3. Conditions for fertility recovery: Lessons from European experiences･･････KONO, SHIGEMI (Reitaku University)＜Chair＞ WADA, KOHEI (Chuo University, Faculty of Economics)
4. Determinants of regional differential in fertility･･････SASAI, TSUKASA (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
5. On Age-specific marital fertility rates･･････SUZUKI, TORU (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
6. Change in Demand of Children of Young People: Data from Japanese National Fertility
Survey･･････MORIIZUMI, RIE (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
General Session 2:

10:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ OZAKI, MICHIO (Council on Population)
1. A Study on the High Divorce Rate in Hotan Administrative Area of Xinjiang Region, China･･････ABUDUKELIMU, XIANMUXINU (Tokyo University ofAgriculture and Technology)
2. The current situation and problems on the unbalance of sex rate on birth in China･･････ZHOU MEILIN (Tokyo University of Agriculture andTechnology)
3. The migration and the reform of Residents Registration system in China･･････FENG WENMENG (Tokyo University of Agriculture andTechnology)＜Chair＞ TAKASAKA, KOUICHI (Faculty of General Policy Studies, Kyorin University)
4. Israel and Population: from Yanaihara's Paper and etc.
･･････UTSUMI, KENJU (The University of Aizu JuniorCollege)
5. Islam and Work Behavior of Couples in Southeast Asia: A Comparative Analysis of SWAF
Data･･････KOJIMA, HIROSHI (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
6. The Dynamics of Russian Population by Regions: A Comparison of 1989 and 2002 Censuses･･････TABATA, TOMOKO (Hokkaido University)
General Session 3:

10:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ HAYASHI, KENJI (National Institute of Public Health)
1. Improvement of calculation to estimate a probability of death and Prefectural life tables inJapan･･････OOBA, TAMOTSU (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
2. Mortality Age Patterns for Infants: Japan and USA･･････NANJO, ZENJI (Tohoku-gakuin University)･･････YOSHINAGA, KAZUHIKO (Fukuoka University)
3. Analysis of mortality in Miyagi･･････HAGIHARA, JUN (Miyagi University)＜Chair＞ YAMAGUCHI, KIICHI (Tokyo Kasei Gakuin University)
4. Household Simulation with Health Status･･････FUKAWA, TETSUO (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
5. Population structure and income difference･･････KOJIMA, KATSUHISA (National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
6. Accuracy Verification of the 2000 Population Census of Japan･･････ISHIHARA, HIDEO (Statistical Survey Department,Statistic Bureau, MPHPT)
Symposium: Reproductive Health in Very Low Fertility Societies＜Organizer＞

OHTSUKA, RYUTARO (University of Tokyo)＜Chair＞

IKEGAMI, KIYOKO (United Nations Population Fund)

15:00〜18:00

1. Reproductive Health in Very Low Fertility Societies: A New Paradigm for Demographic
Research and Policy Formation･･････SATO, RYUZABURO (National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
2. Human Sexuality and Reproductive Process: Demographic Methodologies and theirOutcomes･･････NAKAZAWA, MINATO (Gunma University)

3. Family Planning and Prevention of Sexually Transmitted Diseases: New Approaches inHealth Promotion･･････SAOTOME, TOMOKO (Fureai Yokohama Hospital)
4. Infertility and Reproductive Technologies: Ethical and Social Consideration for the RecentChanges･･････SEMBA, YUKARI (Ochanomizu University)＜Discussants＞ HAYASHI, KENJI (National Institute of Public Health)
ATO,MAKOTO (National Institute of Population and Social SecurityResearch)

Welcome Reception:

18:00〜20:00

June 12(Sat.), 2004
Registration

9:30〜

Theme Session 2:

10:00〜12:30

Demographic Analysis Utilizing Micro Data
＜Organizer＞

ANZO, SHINJI (Meiji University)＜Chair＞

KOJIMA, HIROSHI (National Institute of Population and Social SecurityResearch)

1. Nest-Leaving and the Transition to Marriage for Women in Contemporary Japan･･････FUKUDA, SETSUYA (Meiji University)
2. A Study on Male Marital Behavior･･････SAKANISHI, AKIKO (Nara Prefectural University)
3. Premarital Pregnancy and Spouse Pairing Patterns in Japan: Assessing How Novel Family
Behaviors "Fit in" to the Family Formation Process･･････JAMES M. RAYMO (University of Wisconsin)･･････IWASAWA, MIHO (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
4. Partnership histories in the Netherlands: A comparison with Japan･･････MATSUO, HIDEKO (Universite Catholique de Louvain)
5. Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation of Japanese Married Women: An Event History
Analysis Using Data from the National Family Research of Japan･･････KATO, AKIHIKO (Meiji University)
6. Effects of "Freeters" on Future Population Change: Population Projections by Dynamic
Microsimulation Household Model･･････INAGAKI, SEIICHI (Farmers' Pension Funds)＜Discussants＞ ARATAME, NATSUMI (Takushoku University)
MURAKAMI, AKANE (The Institute for Research on Household Economics)
General Session 4:

10:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ OKAZAKI, YOUICHI (Nihon University)
1. The Determinants of Premarital Pregnancy･･････KAMATA, KENJI (Meiji University)
2. Relation of Parents to Children and Marriage･･････SAKAMOTO, KAZUYASU (The Institute for Research onHousehold Economics)
3. The Role of Grandparents in Intergenerational Support

･･････CHITOSE, YOSHIMI (National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)＜Chair＞ FURUGORI, TOMOKO (Chuo University)
4. Gender, Employment and Housework in Japan･･････TSUYA, NORIKO (Keio University)
5. "Caring Family" and Difficulty of Child-rearing･･････TENDO, MUTSUKO (Meijo University)
6. The Effects of Work Time upon Women's Labor Force Participation･･････MATSUDA, SHIGEKI (Dai-Ichi Life Research InstituteInc.)
General Session 5:

10:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ SUGINO, MOTOSUKE (Kyusyu Kyoritsu University)
1. Recent studies of poverty reduction in Development Economics and the Role of Population
policies･･････NOGAMI, HIROKI (Institute of Developing Economies,JETRO)
2. The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Population: In the case of the West and AsianCountries･･････MASUDA, MIKITO (Komazawa University)
3. Living Arrangements and Well-Being of the Elderly in Bangkok, Thailand･･････MORIKI, YOSHIE (Pennsylvania State University)＜Chair＞ NISHIUCHI, MASAHIKO (Kyodo News)
4. Family Planning Programme in India･･････SAGAZA, HARUO (Waseda University)･･････ALOK KUMAR (Waseda University)
5. Diffusion of the Demographic Transition in India: A case study of Andhra Pradesh･･････NISHIKAWA, YUIKO (Josai University)
6. From Illegal Abortion to Contraception: Fertility Transition and Negotiating Midwives inOkinawa under U.S. Military Occupation･･････SAWADA, KAYO (Japan Society for the Promotion ofScience)
General Session 6:＜Chair＞ HAMA, HIDEHIKO (Seijo University)
1. Comparison of Aging between Japan and Its Areas

10:00〜12:30

･･････SAKAI, HIROMICHI (Saitama Prefectural University)
2. Net migration and age structure in the Tokyo core area･･････SHIMIZU, MASATO (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
3. Characteristics of Fertility Decline in Hokkaido･･････HARA, TOSHIHIKO (Hokkaido Tokai University)＜Chair＞ OBAYASHI，SENICHI(Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management Home

Affairs, Post and Telecommunications)
4. Cohort-Change Rate Approach to Regional Analysis Using Small Area Statistics･･････TAMURA, TOMOKO (Statistical Information Institute forConsulting and Analysis)･･････KONISHI, JUN (Statistical Information Institute forConsulting and Analysis)
5. The feature of prefectures population movement by Markov Chain･･････YOSHIOKA, SHIGERU (Rissho University)
6. The Change of the Determinants of Long-distance Internal Migration in Post-war
Japan･･････ITO, KAORU (Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University, Facultyof Economics and Information)
Theme Session 3:

14:00〜16:30

Formal Demographic Methods and Their Applications＜Organizer＞

INABA, HISASHI (University of Tokyo)＜Chair＞

TAKAHASHI, SHIGESATO (National Institute of Population and SocialSecurity Research)

1. An Analysis of Mean Length of Working Life: Multi-state Approach･･････BEPPU, MOTOMI (Reitaku University)
2. Expected income and the fertility-rate･･････SHEN DONG (Kobe University)
3. "Younger" rather than "More": The Impact of Age-shifted Cohort Fertility on the Future
Population･･････IWASAWA, MIHO (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
4. Evolution of mortality in Okinawa: 1921-2000･･････NAITO, KUSUTO (Universite Catholique de Louvain)･･････MICHEL POULAIN (Universite Catholique de Louvain)5. Formal Demographical Analysis for population variables under the decrease in population･･････ISHII, FUTOSHI (Statistics and Information Dept.,
MHLW)＜Discussants＞ KANEKO, RYUICHI (National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research)
MATSUSHITA, KEIICHIRO (Kansai University)
General Session 7:

14:00〜16:30＜Chair＞ OKADA, MINORU (Chuo University)
1. Declining birth rate is a political issue. Is it true?
･･････IKEDA, KAZUO (Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of PublicHealth)･･････NADAOKA, YOKO (Tokyo Metropolitan Institute ofPublic Health)･･････KURASHINA, SHIUSUKE (Geriatric Care Facility
Care-Center-Ami)
2. Demographic "Inversion" and Population･･････KURODA, TOSHIO (Japanese Organization forInternational Cooperation in Family Planning)＜Chair＞ YAMAGUCHI, MITOSHI (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
3. End of Japan's Demographic Bonus･･････OGAWA, NAOHIRO (Nihon University Population
Research Institute)
4. Long-term Outlook for the Demographic Change, Economic Growth and Social Security
Finance･･････KATO, HISAKAZU (National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
5. Welfare Analysis of Population Policies･･････KANAYA, SADAO (Tokyo Metropolitan University)
General Session 8:

14:00〜16:30＜Chair＞ WATANABE, MACHIKO (Meikai University)
1. Internal Migration in Thailand during 90's･･････KURITA, KYOSUKE (Hitotsubashi Univ.)
2. Migration and marital behavior of females in Thailand: using micro-data of the 2000
population and housing census

･･････NAKAGAWA, SATOSHI (Kobe University)＜Chair＞ WAKABAYASHI, KEIKO (Tokyo University of Agriculture & Technology)
3. Fertility and Migration in Laos･･････TAKAHASHI, SHINICHI (Kobe University)
4. Economic Development and Population Change in Malaysia･･････OTSUKA, TOMOMI (Nihon University)
5. International Migration in China･･････HAYASE, YASUKO (Former Institute of DevelopingEconomies, JETRO)
General Session 9:

14:00〜16:30＜Chair＞ ISHI YOSHIKUNI (Josai University)
1. Regional Population in Japan: A Historical Analysis･･････KITO, HIROSHI (Sophia University)
2. An analysis of adopted daughters in pre-modern Kami-Naguri village･･････TOISHI, NANAMI (University of Tokyo)
3. Population change in Iwami Shogunate Area･･････HIROSIMA, KIYOSI (Shimane University)＜Chair＞ SAITO, OSAMU (IER, Hitotsubashi University）
4. Construction of the disease database before Tokugawa period･･････HAMANO, KIYOSHI (Kansai University)
5. Retrospective population estimate using age-specific mortality rate･･････HAYASHI, REIKO (National Graduate Institute for PolicyStudies)
6. Introduction of Statistical GIS Plaza･･････SOUTA, NOBORU (Statistics Bureau, Ministry ofPublic Management Home Affairs, Post andTelecommunications）