Population Association of Japan

2006 Annual Meeting Program!

June 3 – 4, 2006
Keio University

2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku
Tokyo 108-8345 Japan
TEL.+81-3-3453-4511

President
ATOH, Makoto
Chair, Organizing Committee
TSUYA, NorikoProgram Summary
Saturday 3 June"#$""! ! ! ! ! ! Registration"#$%"&'($%"! ! Theme Session 1: Quantitative Analyses of Life Course andPopulation ( 1st.bldg. 109)
General Session 1 ( 1st.bldg. 1F 111 )General Session 2 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 122 )General Session 3 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 124 )'($%"&'%$%"! ! Lunch Break'($%"&'%$%"! ! PAJ Board of Director#s Meeting'%$%"&'%$)"! ! Welcome Address from the Host Organization ( West bldg. 517)'%$)"&')$%"! ! General Membership Meeting (West bldg. 517 )')$%"&'*$%"! ! Symposium (West bldg. 517)
Japan's Population Decline: Generational Perspectives'+$""&("$""! ! Welcome Reception (North bldg. 1F $The Cafeteria%)

Sunday 5 June"+$%"! ! ! ! ! ! Registration"#$""&'($""! ! Theme Session 2: Declining Fertility in East Asia and Its Relation to
the Social Role of Women (1st.bldg. 1F 109)
General Session 4 (1st.bldg. 2F 122 )General Session 5 (1st.bldg. 2F 124 )'($""&'($),! ! Lunch Break'($),&',$',! ! Theme Session 3: Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage:
A Historical Demography Perspective (1st.bldg. 109 )General Session 6 ( 1st.bldg. 1F 111 )General Session 7 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 122 )General Session 8 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 124 )',$',&'+$""! ! Theme Session 4: Subnational Population Statistics in the
21st century ( 1st.bldg. 2F 111 )General Session 9 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 122 )General Session 10 ( 1st.bldg. 2F 124 )1

Population Association of Japan

2006 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 3 June! #$%"-'($%"!

9 : 00Registration!

Theme Session 1 (Room No. 109)
Quantitative Analyses of Life course and PopulationO'(ani,e'"KANEKO, Ryuichi#.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch$
Chai'"INABA, Hisashi#Tok;o UniBe'sit;$
Cisc4ssant"NAKAZAWA, Minato#D4nma UniBe'sit;$
WADA, Kohei#Ch4o UniBe'sit;$
KATO, Akihiko (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
Japan#s Ceclinin( Pop4lation and the Cemo('aphic Rep'od4ction o5 Families
SUZUKI, Toru (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Ho4sehold and Famil; Fo'mation o5 Mo4n( People
KOBAYASHI, Yoshie (Wako UniBe'sit;)
Relationship Oetween Conscio4sness o5 Ga''ia(e and Emplo;ment and Famil;
Fo'mation: Se'ti5ication O; Rec4'siBe Godel
Mizuochi, Masaaki (Ochanomi,4 UniBe'sit;)
Tsutsui, Junya (Rits4meikan UniBe'sit;)
Asai, Yukiko (Teio UniBe'sit;)
Co Pe'sonal 2ntentions Gatte'U: The Vnal;sis o5 the E55ect o5 Willin(ness 5o'
Ga''ia(eInagaki, Seiichi (Fa'me's Pension F4nds)
P'ojections on Li5e EBents o5 Ga''ia(e, Bi'th and LeaBin( Home: The E55ect o52nc'ease in $Mo4n( F'eete's%2General Session 1 (Room No. 111)!
Chai': ISHI, Yoshikuni (J;osai UniBe'sit;)
Zhang, Jun (Tok;o UniBe'sit; o5 V('ic4lt4'e and Technolo(;)
Pop4lation V(ein( and Chan(es in LiBin( V''an(ements in China
FENG, Wenmeng (Tok;o UniBe'sit; o5 V('ic4lt4'e and Technolo(;)
The 2n5l4ences o5 Pop4lation O4t5low on R4'al Ho4sehold in China
Liang, Ying (Tok;o UniBe'sit; o5 V('ic4lt4'e and Technolo(;)
Histo'; o5 China#s Pop4lation CeBelopment and Famil; Plannin( Polic;
Chai': OKAZAKI, Yoichi (.ihon UniBe'sit;, 'et.)
KONO, Shigemi (Reitak4 UniBe'sit;)! ! ! ! Cemo('aphic and Socio-Economic Conditions 5o' Fe'tilit; Rec4pe'ation: Lessons
5'om the .o'th Vme'ican and E4'opean Co4nt'ies
KYOGOKU, Takanobu (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)Ga']#s Siew o5 Pop4lation E]plosion and C'iti^4e a(ainst Ga'th4s# Pop4lation
Theo';!
!

General Session 2 (Room No. 122)!
Chai': EMI, Koichi (Hitots4Oashi UniBe'sit;)
KATO, Hisakazu ( Geiji UniBe'sit;)
Time Se'ies Vnal;sis o5 CiBo'ce and LaOo' Ga'ket!
FUJINO, Atsuko (T;oto San(;o UniBe'sit;)
Ga''ia(e 2ntentions o5 Mo4n( People : The E55ect o5 thei' Wo'kin( Conditions andVttit4des! ! MATSUSHITA, Keiichiro (Tansai UniBe'sit;)
Vn Economic Godel and its 2mplications o5 the Choice not to HaBe a Child
Chai': KANEKIYO, Hiroyuki (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
MATSUKURA, Rikiya (.ihon UniBe'sit;)
Maliki (.ihon UniBe'sit;)
NEMOTO, Kazuo (Statistical Resea'ch and T'ainin( 2nstit4te, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal
V55ai's and Comm4nications)
The Geanin( and Sal4e o5 the .TV
OGAWA, Naohiro (.ihon UniBe'sit;)
AKASAKA, Katsuya (Statistical Resea'ch and T'ainin( 2nstit4te, Ginist'; o52nte'nal V55ai's and Comm4nications)Two Cemo('aphic CiBidends in JapanIHARA, Hajime (2nstit4te o5 Statistical Gathematics)
The E55ect o5 Pop4lation St'4ct4'e Chan(e on the Ho4sehold Stock and Simpli5ied
P'ojection!!

3General Session 3 (Room No. 124)
Chai': INOUE, Takashi (Vo;ama Dak4in UniBe'sit;)
KOIKE, Shiro (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
On the E55ect o5 Gi('ation on Fe'tilit; ` F'om the Fi5th S4'Be; on Gi('ation!
YAMAUCHI, Masakazu (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
2ndices 5o' Re(ional Fe'tilit; Vnal;sis : Ce5inition, VdBanta(es, and Limitations
o5 the 2ndi'ect Standa'di,ed 2ndices o5 Child-Woman Ratio, Child-Ga'ital Woman
Ratio and P'opo'tion Ga''ied
SUGA, Keita (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)Patte'ns and Facts o5 Re(ional Ci55e'entials in Fe'tilit;: Japan 5'om 1970 to 2000
Chai: SAOTOME, Tomoko ( F4'eai Mokohama Hospital )BEPPU, Motomi (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Ga'ital Fe'tilit; and Childlessness amon( the Japanese womenSato, Ryuzaburo (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Shiraishi, Noriko (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Bando Rieko (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)!
Recent T'ends o5 2nd4ced VOo'tion in Japan
Nishi, Fumihiko (Statistical Resea'ch and T'ainin( 2nstit4te, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal
V55ai's and Comm4nications)C4''ent Sit4ation o5 Sin(le Gothe's in Japan!
!

12 : 30 – 13 : 30

Lunch Break

12 : 30 – 13 : 30

PAJ Board of Director’s Meeting!

!

13 : 30 – 13 : 40

Welcome Address (Room No.517)!

13 : 40 – 14 : 30

General Membership Meeting (Room No.517)

4

Saturday 4 June! ')$%"-'*$%"!
!

Symposium (Room No.517)
Japan’s Population Decline: Generational Perspectives!
O'(ani,e'"TSUYA, Noriko (Teio UniBe'sit;)
Chai'"ATO, Makoto (Waseda UniBe'sit;)
Cisc4ssant"HIGUCHI, Yoshio (Teio UniBe'sit;)
SAGAZA, Haruo (Waseda UniBe'sit;)
Raymo, James M. (UniBe'sit; o5 Wisconsin)
2ss4es on the Mo4n( Vd4lt Pop4lation
IMADA, Sachiko (The Japan 2nstit4te 5o' LaOo' Polic; and T'ainin()2ss4es on the Giddle-V(ed Pop4lation
HARA, Toshihiko (Sappo'o Cit; UniBe'sit;)
2ss4es on the Elde'l; Pop4lation!

!
!

18 : 00 – 20 : 00

Welcome Party(North Building 1F “The Cafeteria” )5Population Association of Japan

2006 Annual Meeting Program
Sunday 4 June! #$""-'($""!

8 : 30Registration

Theme Session 2 (Room No.109)
Declining Fertility in East Asia and Its Relation to
the Social Role of WomenO'(ani,e'"ATOH, Makoto (Waseda UniBe'sit;)
Chai'"KONO, Shigemi (Reitak4 UniBe'sit;)
Cisc4ssant"SHIRAHASE, Sawako (Tok;o UniBe'sit;)
NAGASE, Nobuko (Ochanomi,4 UniBe'sit;)
Keong-Suk PARK (Con(-V UniBe'sit;)
To'ea Women#s Li5e Co4'ce and Geanin(s o5 Famil; and Economic VctiBes
Wen Shan YANG (2nstit4te o5 Sociolo(; and RCHSS, Vcademia Sinica)
An-Chi TUNG (2nstit4te o5 Economics, Vcademia Sinica)
Women#s JoO Sec4'it; and Fe'tilit; Cecisions: V Case St4d; o5 Taiwan
FUKUDA, Setsuya (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
Women#s Socio-Economic Stat4s and Fe'tilit; Cecline in Post-Wa' Japan:
E55ects o5 Ed4cation, Emplo;ment and Famil; St'4ct4'e on Pa'it; T'ansitions
MATSUO, Hideko (Tatholieke UniBe'siteit Le4Ben)
Compa'in( Low Fe'tilit; in Japan and Weste'n E4'opean Co4nt'ies: 2n a Dende'
Pe'spectiBe
!
!
!
!
!
!
!

6

General Session 4 (Room No. 122)!
Chai'"SAGAZA, Haruo (Waseda UniBe'sit;)
OKUNO, Shigenori (Statistics B4'ea4, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal V55ai's and Comm4nications)E]ec4ted Sit4ation o5 the 2005 Pop4lation Cens4s and 2ss4es in the F4t4'e
FUJITA, Minezo (Statistics B4'ea4, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal V55ai's and Comm4nications, 'et.)
The Wo'ld T'end o5 Pop4lation Cens4s in the 21st Cent4'; and Pop4lation Cens4s
in Japan
OBAYASHI, Senichi (Teik;o UniBe'sit;)
On 2ndices o5 Cispa'it; in Deo('aphical Cist'iO4tion o5 Pop4lation
Chai'"OBUCHI, Hiroshi (Ch4o UniBe'sit;)
Yamaguchi, Kozo (Hitots4Oashi UniBe'sit;)
KUBO, Susumu (Statistics B4'ea4, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal V55ai's and Comm4nications)
Small V'ea Estimation and Vpplication to the LaOo4' Fo'ce S4'Be;
TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (ToOe UniBe'sit;)
Some Cha'acte'istics o5 Re(ional Pop4lation in the Ea'l; Geiji E'a
ISHIKAWA, Akira (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
EBal4ation o5 2ndicato's 5o' Pop4lation C;namics!
!
!

General Session 5 (Room No. 124)!
Chai'"NAKAZAWA, Minato (D4nma UniBe'sit;)
WATANABE, Yoshikazu (Japan V(in( Resea'ch Cente')
KITO, Hiroshi (Sophia UniBe'sit;)
KATO, Hisakazu (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
KIMIJIMA, Nana (Taisho UniBe'sit;)
Japanese Pop4lation P'ojection
ISHII, Futoshi (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
T'ends o5 Japanese Li5e E]pectanc; and Go'talit; P'ojection Godels
HIROSIMA, Kiyosi (Shimane UniBe'sit;)
Tempo E55ect in Sital EBents: El4cidation th'o4(h Two-Cimensional Coho't Li5e
TaOle F4nctions
Chai'"KATO, Hisakazu (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
INABA, Hisashi (Tok;o UniBe'sit;)
S4'BiBal models 5o' li5e-c;cle eBents
HARA, Toshihiko (Sappo'o Cit; UniBe'sit;)
Sim4lation Godel 5o' Fe'tilit; Cecline in Hokkaido: Pa't 1
MASUDA, Mikito (Tokai UniBe'sit;)
Conce'nin( Estimation Gethodolo(; in Bi'th Rate Sim4lation Godels

712 : 00 – 12 : 45

Lunch Break!
!

Sunday 4 June! '($),-',$',!

Theme Session 3 (Room No. 109)
Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage:
A Historical Demography PerspectiveO'(ani,e'"KUROSU, Satomi (Reitak4 UniBe'sit;)
Chai'"OKADA, Aoi (Teik;o UniBe'sit;)
Cisc4ssant"KITOH, Hiroshi (Sophia UniBe'sit;)
HIROSHIMA, Kiyoshi (Shimane UniBe'sit;)
Harald Fuess (Sophia UniBe'sit;)
CiBo'ce in Geiji Japan
KUROSU, Satomi (Reitak4 UniBe'sit;)
Ga''ia(e Cissol4tion and Rema''ia(e in a Societ; o5 $UniBe'sal Ga''ia(e%"Vn EBent
Histo'; Vnal;sis o5 Rema''ia(e amon( Tok4(awa Peasants
TAKAHASHI, Miyuki (Reitak4 UniBe'sit;)
CiBo'ce and Rema''ia(e o5 Women LiBin( in the Post Town in Tok4(awa Pe'iod
SAITO, Osamu (Hitots4Oashi UniBe'sit;)
Hamano, Kiyoshi (Tansai UniBe'sit;)
The Ceath o5 the Pa'tne', Rema''ia(e and Famil; Contin4ation in Ea'l; Gode'n
Japan

8

General Session 6 (Room No. 111)!
Chai'"WAKABAYASHI, Keiko (Tok;o UniBe'sit; o5 V('ic4lt4'e and Technolo(;)
MIKHAIL, Trukhin (Waseda UniBe'sit;)
Pop4lation Chan(es in R4ssian Fa' East: Reasons 5o' the T'ends and Ce5inin(
Cha'acte'istics
KASAHARA, Hiroyoshi (Reitak4 UniBe'isit;)!!!!P'omotion o5 the Elde'l;-People Emplo;ment in a Low Bi'th'ate V(ed Societ;!
Chai'"HAMA, Hidehiko (Seij;o UniBe'sit;, 'et. )ITO, Kaoru (Di54 Shotok4 Dak4en UniBe'sit;)
Gi('ation o5 Di54 P'e5ect4'e in the Latte' Hal5 o5 the 20th Cent4';
SHIMIZU, Masato (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
G4nicipalit; Ge'(e's and 2nt'a-P'e5ect4'al Gi('ation
YOSHIOKA, Shigeru (Rissho UniBe'sit;)
Chan(e St'4ct4'e o5 Tok;o Get'opolitan V'ea Pop4lation Postwa'!
!
!

General Session 7 (Room No. 122)!
Chai'"HAYASE, Yasuko (2nstit4te o5 CeBelopin( Economies, JETRO, 'et.)
UEYAMA, Mika (Hitots4Oashi UniBe'sit;)
O'phans P'oOlems and Chan(es in Ho4sehold Fo'mation in Galawi with
Emphasis on H2S/V2CS
NABIN, Aryal (Hitots4Oashi UniBe'sit;)
Stat4s o5 2n5ant Go'talit; in .epal: Res4lts 5'om the Pop4lation Cens4s Sample
CataOase
OKABE, Kyoko (Vkita 2nte'national UniBe'sit;)
Go'talit; in Vkita
Chai'"TAKAHASHI, Shigesato(.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
IKEDA, Kazuo (Tok;o Get'opolitan 2nstit4te o5 P4Olic Health)
NADAOKA, Yoko (Tok;o Get'opolitan 2nstit4te o5 P4Olic Health)
KURASHINA, Shyusuke (De'iat'ic Ca'e Facilit; Ca'e-Cente'-Vmi)
The Go'Oid Ceath Cist'iO4tion in the Pop4lation St'4ct4'e o5 Japan
KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi (Te,4ka;ama UniBe'sit;)
Posth4mo4s B4ddhist .ames 5o' 2n5ants and Child'en in the B4ddhist Temple
Ceath Re(iste's, V Te]t C'iti^4e with a CataOase S;stem 5o' Vnal;,in( theB4ddhist Temple Ceath Re(iste's

9General Session 8 (Room No. 124)!
Chai'"MORIOKA, Jin (Toma,awa UniBe'sit;)
ANZO, Shinji (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
V S4mma'; o5 the Celphi S4'Be;
KAMATA, Kenji (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
NAKAJIMA, Mitsuhiro (Geiji UniBe'sit;)
Vnal;sis Classi5ied O; Special Field 5o' the P'ospect o5 $the Ceclinin( Bi'th'ate%which is Seen in the Celphi S4'Be;
Chai'"WATANABE, Hideki (Teio UniBe'sit; )SHINTANI Yuriko (G4sashino UniBe'sit;)
Facto' Vnal;sis o5 a Bi'th Will Ci55e'ence o5 a Mo4n( Co4ple: Th'o4(h Compa'isono5 Si] V'ea 2nBesti(ation aOo4t Ceclinin( Bi'th'ate
YOSHIDA, Chizu (Tanto Dak4in UniBe'sit;)
Fe'tilit; and Roles o5 a Wi5e and a H4sOand
MATSUDA, Shigeki (Cai-2chi Li5e Resea'ch 2nstit4te 2.C.)
The E55ects o5 Childca'e Vn]iet; 4pon Cesi'es 5o' Child'en in Japan

15 : 15 – 15 : 30

Coffee Break10

Theme Session 4 (Room No. 109)
Subnational Population Statistics in the 21st Century
O'(ani,e'"OBAYASHI, Senichi (Teik;o UniBe'sit;)
Chai'"ABE, Takashi (.ihon Women#s UniBe'sit;)
Cisc4ssant"ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka (T;oto UniBe'sit;)
ITO, Kaoru (Di54 Shotok4 Dak4en UniBe'sit;)
MATSUMURA, Michio (.ational Statistics Cente')
ISHIHARA, Hideo (Statistics B4'ea4, Ginist'; o5 2nte'nal V55ai's and Comm4nications)
2n5l4ence o5 G4nicipal Ge'(e's DiBen to Re(ional Statistics o5 Pop4lation Cens4s o5Japan
SAKAI, Takamasa (.a'a UniBe'sit;)
Some Points in Vnal;,in( Gic'o-Re(ional Statistical Cata with D2S
NOGAMI, Hiroki (2nstit4te o5 CeBelopin( Economies, JETRO)
Policies 5o' CisaOilit; and Re(ional Pop4lation Statistics in JapanOe, Moriyuki (Teio UniBe'sit;)
Vppl;in( the .ew Gethod 5o' Re(ional Pop4lation P'ojections to a P'e5ect4'e:CollaOo'ation with the Plannin( Cepa'tment o5 Tana(awa P'e5ect4'e

General Session 9 (Room No. 122)
Chai'"YOSHIDA, Yoshio (Vsahi UniBe'sit;)
KOJIMA, Hiroshi (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Famil; Fo'mation BehaBio's o5 $Fo'ei(n B'ides% in Taiwan: V Compa'atiBe
Vnal;sis o5 the 2000 Cens4s Gic'odata
CHITOSE, Yoshimi (.ational 2nstit4te o5 Pop4lation and Social Sec4'it; Resea'ch)
Schoolin( o5 B'a,ilian Child'en in Cit; V, Shi,4oka P'e5ect4'e: V Compa'atiBe
Vnal;sis with 2000 Cens4s %KAMADA, Osamu (Ch4o UniBe'sit;)!"#"$%&%'()"*+,+"$-./)0%)&-+$-!"#"$
KONO, Michikazu (Himeji Cit; O55ice)
What is the Gessa(e o5 05#s 2mmi('ant Riots in F'ance 5o' JapanU

11