Population Association of Japan

2011 Annual Meeting Program
June 11 –12, 2011
Kyoto University
Graduate School and Faculty of Letters

Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku
Kyoto 606-8501 Japan
TEL.+81-75-753-2768

President
TAKAHASHI, Shigesato
Chair, Organizing Committee
ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka

Program Summary
Saturday 11 June
08:30
09:00 － 12:00

Registration
Theme Session 1: The Interaction between Demography andEconomics: How Can We Inspire Each Other? ( Lecture Room 7)
General Session 1 ab( Lecture Room 1 )General Session 2 ab( Lecture Room 2 )General Session 3 ab( Lecture Room 6 )12:00～13:30
13:30～13:40
13:40～14:10
14:10～15:00
15:00～15:20

Lunch Break
Welcome Address from the Host Organization ( Lecture Room 3)
Presidential Address ( Lecture Room 3)
General Membership Meeting ( Lecture Room 3 )Coffee Break

15:20～18:20

Planning Session 1: Rural-Urban Contrast in Historical Demography(Lecture Room 6)
Theme Session 2: Frontier of Population Statistics and the Role of
Academic Analyses( Lecture Room 7 )General Session 4 ab( Lecture Room 1 )General Session 5 ab( Lecture Room 2 )15:20～18:20

18:30～20:00

Welcome Reception ( Café Restaurant “Camphora”)

Sunday 12 June
08:30
09:00～12:00

Registration
Planning Session 2: Population and Infectious Diseases( Lecture Room 7 )General Session 6ab ( Lecture Room 1 )General Session 7ab ( Lecture Room 7 )General Session 8ab ( Lecture Room 6 )12:00～13:30

Lunch Break

12:15～13:00

Member-initiated Roundtable on Future Projects ( Seminar Room 2 )13:30～16:30

Planning Session 3(Tutorial Seminars):
Administrators ( Lecture Room 3 )13:30～16:30

General Session 9ab ( Lecture Room 1 )General Session 10ab ( Lecture Room 2 )General Session 11a ( Lecture Room 6 )-1-

GIS Tutorial Seminar forPopulation Association of Japan

2011 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 11 June

8 : 30

９：00-１２：00

Registration

Theme Session 1 (Lecture Room No. 7)
The Interaction between Demography andEconomics: How Can We Inspire Each Other?
Organizer：WADA, Kohei（Chuo University）
Chair：WADA, Kohei（Chuo University）
Discussant ： KANEKO, Ryuichi （ National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research）/ MATSUURA, Tsukasa（Chuo University）
KAWAI, Katsuhiko (Nagoya City University)
On Applying Agent-based Models to Demography (from the Perspective of Economics)
HAYASHI, Reiko (Ministry of Health and Prevention, Republic of Senegal)
On the State of Equilibrium by Different Phase of Demographic Transition
KAGEYAMA, Junji (Meikai University)
On the Intersection that A. Smith, T. R. Malthus, and C. Darwin meet
NOGAMI, Hiroki (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)
Population, Effective Demand, and the Happiness Studies

General Session 1 (Lecture Room No. 1)●General Session 1a －Population of East Asia I－
Chair: KOJIMA, Hiroshi (Waseda University)
LIN, Ji-Ping (Academia Sinica)
LIU, Chien-Chia (Academia Sinica)
Characterization and Destination Choice of American and Japanese Immigrants in
Taiwan: Evidence from Taiwan Population Censuses
WANG, George Chang (National Chung Cheng University)
WANG, Shu Yung (National Chung Cheng University)
CHENG, Ching Hsia (National Chung Cheng University)
Sustaining Fertility through Government Policy: A Preliminary Planning of Child
Allowance Program in Taiwan
LIU, Jeng (Tung-Hai University)
The Efficacy and Stratification of Cram Schooling in Taiwan-2-

● General Session 1b －Population of East Asia II－
Chair：HAYASE, Yasuko (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.)
KABE, Shigesaburo (Japan Center for Economic Research)
Low Fertility Trend and Child-rearing Environment in Taiwan
YIN, Hao (Fukuoka Women's University)
Research on Sex Ratio at Birth of China
NIE, Haisong (Tokyo University of Agriculture & Technology)
The Elderly and Social Security in China:
One Empirical Sociological Study Based on the Surveys in Five Provinces

General Session 2 (Lecture Room No. 2)● General Session 2a －Historical Demography－
Chair: KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi (Tezukayama University)
NAKAJIMA, Mitsuhiro (Kyoto University)
Children out-of-wedlock in a Seaside Village, 18-19th Centuries
SATO, Ren’ya (Tokai University)
Low Fertility and its Causes Among African Small Scale Societies: A Case from
Shifting Cultivators in Ethiopia● General Session 2b －Population Theory and Policy－
Chair: ATO, Makoto (Waseda University)
HARA, Toshihiko (Sapporo City University)
Shrinking Society - Consequence of Decreasing Population in German and Japan
SATO, Ryuzaburo (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
SHIRAISHI, Noriko (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
BEPPU, Motomi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
What Have Divided Industrialized Countries into the “Very Low Fertility” Groupand the “Moderately Low Fertility” Group? : Exploring Historical and Cultural
Backgrounds
ANZO, Shinji (Meiji University)
MORIIZUMI, Rie (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
KAMATA, Kenji (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
MASUDA, Mikito (Cabinet Office)Summary of the Survey Report for the first-term action plan based on the Act on
Advancement of Measures to Support Raising Next-Generation Children in
Municipalities-3-

General Session 3 (Lecture Room No. 6)● General Session 3a －Demographic Methods－
Chair: SUZUKI, Toru (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
IKE, Shuichirou (Teikyo University)
On a New Technique to Estimate Age Specific Mobility Rates
KONISHI, Shoko (Tokyo University)
Use of Biomarkers in Demographic Research
ISHII, Futoshi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Application of Tangent Vector Fields on the Log Mortality Surface to Mortality
Projection for Japan● General Session 3b －Mortality and Morbidity－
Chair: ISHII, Futoshi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
OHMI, Kenichi (National Institute of Public Health)
Estimation of the Excess Death Associated with Influenza Pandemics andEpidemics in JAPAN after World War II: Relation with the Pandemics andVaccination System
OTSUKA, Tomomi (Nihon University)
A Study about the Influence of Influenza Pandemic on Japanese Population andEconomyHANASHIMA, Makoto (Institute for Areal Studies, Foundation)
Study for Areal Variation of Japanese Tuberculosis Mortality Rate between the
Two World Wars

12 : 00 – 13 : 30

Lunch Break

13 : 30 – 13 : 40

Welcome Address from the Host
Organization (Lecture Room No.3)

13 : 40 – 14 : 10

Presidential Address(Lecture Room No.3)

14 : 10 – 15 : 00

General Membership Meeting(Lecture Room No.3)

15:00 – 15:20

Coffee Break-4-

Saturday 11 June

１５：２０-１８：２０

Planning Session 1 (Lecture Room No.6)
Rural-Urban Contrast in Historical Demography
Organizer：KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi (Tezukayama University)
Chair：HIRAI, Shoko (Kobe University)
Discussant：KITO, Hiroshi (Sophia University)
NAGATA, Mary Louise (Francis Marion University)
Patterns of Mortality and Migration in Late Tokugawa Kyoto
HAMANO, Kiyoshi (Kansai University)
Population Change and Economy in Early Modern Kyoto: Nishijin District, 1843-68
KUROSU, Satomi (Reitaku University)
TAKAHASHI, Miyuki (Rissho University)
A Comparative Study of Mortality and Migration: Koriyama Town and theSurrounding Villages
SAWAYAMA, Mikako (Okayama University)
The Abandoned Children in Osaka during the Tokugawa Period

Theme Session 2 (Lecture Room No. 7)
Frontier of Population Statistics and the Role of
Academic Analyses
Organizer：IWASAWA, Miho (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Chair：KATO, Hisakazu ( Meiji University)
Discussant：MATSUDA, Shigeki (DAI-ICHI Life Research Institute INC.)
KAWASAKI, Shigeru (Statistics Bureau, MIC)
Challenges in Compilation and Dissemination of Demographic Statistics with a focus
on the Population Census
NAGAO, Etsushi (Statistics Bureau, MIC)
MATSUOKA, Yoshiaki (Statistics Bureau, MIC)The Changes of Classification and Tabulation in the 2010 Population Census of Japan
KUSUMI, Kazuhiro (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)Anonymised data of Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions
KATO, Hisakazu ( Meiji University)
New Trends and the Problems of Population Census
YAMADA, Shigeru (Kokushikan University)
Accuracy of Data of Regional Younger Population of Basic Resident Register-5-

General Session 4 (Lecture Room No. 1)● General Session 4a －Marriage, Family and Labor I－
Chair: NAKAGAWA, Masataka (Waseda University)
TSUYA, Noriko (Keio University)
Time Allocation between Employment and Housework among Japanese Couples
YAMAYA, Mana (Ochanomizu University)
The Effect of Women’s Job Characteristics on their Desire for Children
TERAMURA, Eriko (Kokusai Junior College)
An Estimation of Factors in Female Workers’Continuation of Their First Jobs
● General Session 4b －Marriage, Family and Labor II－
Chair: SAKAI, Hiromichi (Saitama Prefectural University)
KOSAKI, Toshio (Tokai University)
Women in Labor Market and the Decline of Birthrate in Japan
CHO, Sung-ho (Keio University)
Parental Investment on After-school Programs and Mother’s Employment in Japan
KAMATA, Kenji (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Determinants of the Children on the Waiting List for a Vacancy of Nursery Schoolin Tokyo: A Panel Analyses using City-and-Village Level Data

General Session 5 (Lecture Room No. 2)● General Session 5a －Fertility and Population Structure I－
Chair: KONO, Shigemi (Reitaku University)
KANEKA, Ryuichi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Demographic Analysis of the Recent Fertility Trend in Japan and its Determinants
CHENG, P.C. Roger (National Central University)
Forecasting Uncompleted Cohort Fertility Levels and Schedules in Japan
Ashiya, Tsunenori (Hyogo Prefectural Government)
The Present State and Problems about the Estimation for Statistics of the
Population Change in Hyogo Prefecture● General Session 5b －Fertility and Population Structure II－
Chair: HARA, Toshihiko (Sapporo City University)
ISHII, Norio (Tohoku University)
A Study on Total Fertility Rate of Each Prefecture
KOREKAWA, Yu (Cabinet Office)Fertility Trend of Immigrant Women in Japan： An Analysis from the Micro-dataof Vital Statistics of Japan-6-

SASAI, Tsukasa (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
ISHIKAWA, Akira (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
The Trend of the Recent International Migration and its Impact on Population
Structures in Japan

18 : 30 – 20 : 00
Welcome Party(Café Restaurant “Camphora” )-7-Population Association of Japan

2011 Annual Meeting Program
Sunday 12 June

8 : 30

９：００-１２：００

Registration

Planning Session 2 (Lecture Room No.7)
Population and Infectious Diseases
Organizer：INABA, Hisashi (Tokyo University)
Chair：INABA, Hisashi (Tokyo University)
KAKEHASHI, Masayuki (Hiroshima University)
Demography with Infectious Diseases
NISHIURA, Hiroshi (The University of Hong Kong)
Modeling Epidemiological Transition
NAKAYA, Tomoki (Ritsumeikan University)
Spatial Analysis of Disease Maps in the Modern Period of Japan ―Reading Typhoid
Fever Maps in Kyoto City in 1920s―
INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
A Mortality Model of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic:Using Death Statistics in Japan
NAKAZAWA, Minato (Gunma University)
Microgeographic Model of Malaria and Population

General Session 6 (Lecture Room No. 1)● General Session 6a －Regional Population－
Chair：NAKAGAWA, Satoshi (Kobe University)
TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (Niigata Sangyo University)
Analysis of Population Decline in Local Area in Japan－A Study of Small Urban
Regions in Central Part of Niigata Prefecture
KOIKE, Shiro (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
On the Population Changing Pattern Associated with the Opening of Railway
Lines- An Analysis using Grid Square Statistics ITO, Kaoru (Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University)
Analysis of Interrelatedness of Population Decline and Economic Decline in
Higashikishu Region of Mie Prefecture-8-

● General Session 6b －Migration－
Chair：TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (Niigata Sangyo University)
NAKAGAWA, Satoshi (Kobe University)
International Migration from a Lao Village to Bangkok
MAEKAWA, Masako (Osaka Institute of Technology)
The Change for Tomorrow of the International Retirement Migration― A Case
Study of Ciangmai ―YADAVA, K.N.S. (Banaras Hindu University)
An Overview of Models for Rural Out-Migration at the Household Level

General Session 7 (Lecture Room No. 2)● General Session 7a －Population of East Asia III－
Chair：SATO, Ryuzaburo (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
KOJIMA, Katsuhisa (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Comparison of the consciousness to child and family support policy measures－Japan and Korea –PARK, Keong-Suk (Seoul National University)
Women’s Social Status and Fertility in North Korea
JUN, Kwang-Hee (Chungnam National University)
Population Distribution, Urbanization, and Migration in North Korea● General Session 7b －Population of East Asia IV－
Chair：ANZO, Shinji (Meiji University)
KOJIMA, Hiroshi (Waseda University)
Determinants of Attitudes toward Pro-Marriage Policies: A Comparative Analysis
of East Asian Societies
TABATA, Tomoko (Hokkaido University)
The Depopulation in the Russian Far East
Nishi, Fumihiko (Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal
Affairs and Communications)
Population Structure by Occupation in Cambodia

General Session 8 (Lecture Room No. 6)● General Session 8a －Fertility I－
Chair：HIROSHIMA, Kiyoshi (Shimane University)
IMAI, Hiroyuki (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Childbirth Characteristics in Cross-Border Marriages in Japan:
An Analysis of Japanese Husband-Foreign Wife Pairs
MIZUOCHI, Masaaki (Mie University)
Fertility and Child-related Leave by Father
BEPPU, Motomi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
A Demographic Analysis of Fertility and Changing Employment Status of Married
Women in Japan-9-

● General Session 8b －Fertility II－
Chair：YOSHIDA, Chizu (Kanto Gakuin University)
RAYMO, James (University of Wisconsin)
IWASAWA, Miho (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Educational Differences in Unintended Fertility: A Japan – US Comparison
NISHIMURA, TOMO (Kwansei Gakuin University)
The Ideal and Reality of the Number of Children: A Comparative Study of Five
Developed Countries
MORIKI, Yoshie (International Christian University)
MATSUKURA, Rikiya (Nihon University Population Research Institute)Frequency of Sexual Intercourse Among Married Couples：Ideal and Reality

12 : 00 – 13 : 30

Lunch BreakMember-initiated Roundtable on Future Projects(Seminar Room No. 2)
Facilitator：IWASAWA, Miho (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
KONISHI, Shoko (Tokyo University)
TAMAKI, Emi (University of Washington)
An Interdisciplinary Project on Reproductive Aging: Exploring Environmental,
Behavioral, and Genetic Factors※This is a brown-bag seminar. Please bring your own food.

Sunday 12 June

１３：３０-１６：３０

Planning Session 3 (Tutorial Seminars) (Lecture Room No.3)
GIS Tutorial Seminar for Administrators
Organizer：INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
Chair：WADA, Kohei（Chuo University）
INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
The Keynote of GIS Tutorial Seminar for Administrators: Demographic Analysis of
Small Areas by GIS
ESAKI, Yuji (Senshu University)
Population Projections by Cho/Aza (Subdivisions of Municipalities) Using Cohort
Component Method- 10 -

KAWASE, Masaki (Hiroshima Shudo University)
The Technique of GIS with a Low Budget for Municipalities
KAMATA, Kenji (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Analyses of an Action Plan based on the Act on Advancement of Measures to Support
Raising Next-Generation Children in Municipalities Using GI
HASEGAWA, Hirokazu (Niigata City)
Urban Asset Management under Decreasing Population Using GIS～In a Case of Niigata City～

General Session 9 (Lecture Room No. 1)● General Session 9a －Ageing－
Chair：OBAYASHI, Senichi (Teikyo University)
SAKAI, Hiromichi (Saitama Prefectural University)
Characteristics of Young Old and Old Old Population in Japan
NAKAGAWA, Masataka (Waseda University)
Living Arrangement Transitions among the Elderly and Intergenerational
Childcare Support in JapanKASAHARA, Hiroyoshi (Reitaku University)
A Remote Cause of the Increasing of the Irregular Employee and Low Fertility in
the Aging Society● General Session 9b －Economic Demography－
Chair：OTSUKA, Tomomi (Nihon University)
OGAWA, Naohiro (Nihon University Population Research Institute)
MATSUKURA, Rikiya (Nihon University Population Research Institute)
Declining Fertility and Increasing Investment in Children: The Trade-off Between
Quality and Quantity of Children in Japan and Other East Asian Countries
MATSUURA, Tsukasa（Chuo University）
Effect of Relative Income on Fertility
KIM, Suhyun (Ochanomizu University)
The Determinants of Using Contingent Workers in Korea: Approach on Labor Demand

General Session 10 (Lecture Room No. 2)● General Session 10a －Marriage, Family and Labor III－
Chair：MATSUURA, Tsukasa（Chuo University）
MATSUDA, Shigeki (Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute INC.)
Young, Single Person's Marriage Desire
FUKUDA, Setsuya (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
Changing Roles of Women’s Earnings Potential in Marriage Formation in JapanTAMAKI, Emi (University of Washington)
The Gendered Effects of Marriage on Health: Evidence from Japan- 11 -

● General Session 10b －Marriage, Family and Labor IV－
Chair：TSUYA, Noriko (Keio University)
SUZUKI, Toru (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Changes in Stem Family Formation in JapanYOSHIDA, Chizu (Kanto Gakuin University)
Husbands’ share of Housework and Family Policy in Comparative Perspective
SUGA, Keita (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
A Longitudinal Analysis of Household Formation in the United States

General Session 11 (Lecture Room No. 6)●General Session 11a －Fertility III－
Chair：KANEKO, Ryuichi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
HIROSIMA, Kiyosi (Shimane University)
Recent Upturn in Japanese Fertility: Caused by Marital Fertility or Nuptiality?
MASUDA, Mikito (Cabinet Office)
The Regional Gaps of Fertility Rate and their Economic Background Factors in JapanIHARA, Hajime (Statistical Research and Training Institute)
Estimation of Female Workers Occupational Fertility Rate by Own-Children Method- 12 -

Information for Participants

Registration procedure
Please pay your registration fees and banquet fees by May 31 to the postal bank account indicatedbelow. Early registration fee is 4,000 yen (including conference proceedings), and banquet fee is
5,000 yen (9,000 yen total). For students, registration fee is 3,000 yen, and banquet fee is 3,000(6,000 yen total).
On-site registration fee is 5,000 yen, and banquet fee is 6,000 yen (4,000 yen for both registration
and banquet fees for student members).
For those currently residing abroad, it is advised that you register and pay on-site, as processing
fees for early registration will make it more costly. For participants coming from abroad andtherefore could not register early, on-site registration and banquet fees will be charged at the sameamount as early registration fees.
Early registration and banquet fees will not be refunded even if you eventually do not attend theconference.
Non-members who wish to sit in the sessions should inquire at the reception desk. Registration fee
for non-members is 1,500 yen (1,000 yen for students). Conference proceedings can be purchased at
3,000 yen.
Registration starts from 8:30 am for both June 11 (Saturday) and June 12 (Sunday).
Planning Session 3 on the 2nd day (Techniques and examples of GIS-based regional population
analysis: focused on local governments) is mainly for local government and municipal employees
but is also open to members. Attendance to this session only is for free.

Conference proceedings
Conference proceedings will be distributed on the day of the conference.
For those who wish to receive the proceedings without attending the conference, please pay 2,500
yen (including shipping costs) to the postal account below.

BanquetThe banquet will be held at Camphora Café Restaurant beside the main entrance of Kyoto
University from 6:30 pm on June 11 (Saturday). The banquet will cost 5,000 yen (6,000 yen for
on-site payment). Please include the banquet fee with your registration fee in your payment if you
wish to join the banquet.

- 13 -

Send your payments to:
Postal account number: 00910-4-232950
Name: 日本人口学会第 63 回大会運営委員会 (Population Association of Japan 63rd
Annual Meeting Organizing Committee)
Amount: Registration and banquet fees, 9,000 yen; registration fee only, 4,000
yen; conference proceedings only, 2,500 yen.

Notice to research presenters:
For the Non-designated Topic Sessions, time for presentation will be 15 minutes and 10 minutes fordiscussion (total, 25 minutes). For Planning Sessions and Themed Sessions, time allotment is at thediscretion of the session organizer, who will contact the presenter about the schedule prior to theconference.
If you wish to hand-out materials for your presentation, please prepare for around 70 people for the
Themed Sessions and Planning Sessions, and for around 50 people for the Non-designated Topic
Sessions. Please do not send your materials to the venue before the conference.
Hand your materials to the session facilitator at least 30 minutes before your presentation.
If you will use PowerPoint in your presentation, please save a file from your USB flash drives to thecomputers that will be provided at the venue. Please refrain from using your own computers during
your presentation.

Lunch
For June 11 (Saturday) lunch will be available at the Central Cafeteria, a large cafeteria at thebasement of the Faculty of Engineering Building No. 8, which is located southeast of the Faculty of
Letters Main Building. This cafeteria will be open from 11 am to 2 pm. The venue for the banquet,
Camphora Café Restaurant, is open from 11 am to 3 pm. There are also many restaurants near the
Hyakumanben crossing outside the university.
For June 12 (Sunday), the Central Cafeteria will be closed, but Camphora will be open (11 am to 3pm). Many restaurants outside the university will also be open.

Rest/waiting room for members
Please use Lecture Room No. 4 on the 2nd floor of the Faculty of Letters Main Building.
Refreshments will be served, and you can leave materials for distribution and post messages forother participants at the waiting room.

Accommodations
Please make your own hotel arrangements. Since Kyoto is a famous tourist destination, we advise
you to make your reservations as early as possible.

- 14 -

Others
There will be no parking available. Please refrain from coming by car.

Annual Meeting Organizing Committee
Members: Yoshitaka Ishikawa, Emiko Ochiai, Satoko Sakadume
Contact information:
Email: y.ishikawa@ft3.ecs.kyoto-u.ac.jp
FAX: 075-761-0692
Phone: 075-753-27678
For emergencies: 080-3797-2415 (Mobile phone number of Yoshitaka Ishikawa)

Access to the Venue
Regarding the access to the venue, Faculty of Letters Main Building on the Main Campus of Kyoto
University, please visit the following website:
http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en/access/getting/getting_1.htm- 15 -

Faculty of Letters Main Building
ROOM CONFIGURATION【Second Floor】

north
WC

2nd 2ndSeminarSeminar
Room
Room
DN UP

4th Lecture
Room

6th Lecture Room

Women

UP
EV
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DN UP

WC

Men
3rd SeminarRoom
1st Seminar Room

5th Lecture
Room

DN

4th
5th
6th
7th
Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar
Room
Room
Room
Room

7th Lecture RoomEV

UP

3rd Lecture Room【First Floor】
DN
UP

WC

Men
WC

WC

Men

Women

DN UP

UP

Rec ept ion

ＷＣEV

2nd Lecture Room

1st Lecture RoomUP

- 16 -EV
PS