KiM | Netherlands Institute forTransport Policy Analysis

Towards a self-driving
futureTaede Tillema, George Gelauff,
Jan van der Waard

ITF-OECD round table
Ottawa, December 6, 2016
Preliminary and confidential

Research program
1. ‘Driver at the wheel?’: scenarios for a future traffic and transportsystem with automated vehicles– Uncertainties, vision and interactions– Broad societal consequences– No specific time horizon: four final stages

2. Transition paths (fore- and backcasting)– challenges over time
3. Perspective on policy options (in progress)

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Definition: SAE-levels of automation
Level

NameExample

Human driver monitors the driving environment
0No automation

Lane Departure Warning

1

Driver assistance

Adaptive Cruise Control

2

Partial automation

Parking Assistance

Automated driving system monitors the driving environment
3

Conditional automation

Highway Chauffeur

4

High automation

Parking Garage Pilot

5

Full automation

Robot Taxi

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Driver at the wheel? Uncertainties and scenarios“Multimodal &shared automation”

highsharing“Mobility as a service:
any time, any place”“Letting go onhighways”
KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
4level 5lowlevel 3,4

automation“Fully automatedprivate luxury”
Towards a self driving future
ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Transition paths

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Transition paths

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Experimentation Communication

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Sharing flourishes

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Evolution of the private car

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Transition challenges

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December 6, 2016

Man and machine (l 1/2)
• Best of two worlds?
– human beings excel in complex
unexpected circumstances– technology supports driver– higher traffic safety– improved traffic flow
• Or not?
– driver looses attention: accidents– trust in technology undermined

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Cooperative driving (l 1/2)
• Holy grail?
– Efficient road use– Higher traffic safety– Less congestion– Less CO2• Or bridge too far?
– Sensor and software reliability– Cyber security: hacks, privacy

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
12Towards a self driving future
ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Mixed traffic (l 3/4)
• Solves itself?
– consumers appreciate safer trafficand efficient road use– investments in transition zones
between highway and city
• Or showstopper?
– consumer prefers to be in control– dangerous interaction

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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Towards a self driving future
ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Urban dilemma (l 3/4)
• Separate modes?
– l5 technology far away
– Adjust city infrastructure– l 3/4 lanes• Or driver in control?
– l5 technology nearby– Separate modes to costly

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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Towards a self driving future
ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Self driving city (l 5)• Contested space?
– bikers and pedestrians take the road– car traffic comes to a standstill• Or flexible interaction?
– physical separation– technology– ‘pushy’ automated vehicle– culture

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Transition highlights• Full transition will take quite some time: 2060 - 2100
– technology, consumers, government, stock of cars, infrastructure• Path towards a future of sharing cars and rides– requires major shift on short and medium term– probable on long term
Level

Subject

Major transition challenges

1/2

man and machine

best of both worlds or not?

1/2

cooperative driving

holy grail or bridge too far?

3/4

mixed traffic on highway

solves itself or showstopper?

3/4

city infrastructure

separate modes or driver in control?

5self-driving city

contested space or flexible interaction?

KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
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Towards a self driving future
ITF-OECD round table, Ottawa

December 6, 2016

Thank you for your attention
Scenario study Driver at the wheel?:english.kimnet.nl/publications/reports/2015/10/14/driverat-the-wheel
Or google: ‘Driver at the wheel? KiM’

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