After ISAP (AT-2), ISAP2023
Reflections on the Minamata Convention on Mercury: Towards Mercury Management in the Global South
水俣条約発効後の成果と課題および途上国における水銀管理を考える

Mercury Legacy:
Use, Trade, and Anthropogenic Emission

Kenichi Nakajima
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

16 Jan. 2023

1

Triple Planetary Crisis

Climate change
Nature and Biodiversity loss
Pollution2

Mercury： Consumption and Emission
Consumption

OthersEmission

ASGM

24%

Others

ASGM

20%

37%

Asia

Others

14%

38%

49%

Africa4,715 tChlor-alkali 7%
prod.
Measuring andcontrol device(2015)

Non-ferrous 10%
metal prod.

(2015)

7%

VCM prod. 26%
UNEP(2017) Global mercury supply, trade and demand

2,220 t11%
Cement Prod.

Stationary 22%combustion

17%

2,220 t(2015)

Latin
America21%
UNEP(2019) Global mercury assessment 20183

ASGM activities and mercury pollution

Left: UN Environment, Artisanal and Small Scale Gold Mining - Facts and Figures, https://mercury.unitar.org/site/document/1272

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Mercury Emission Scenario

5

Mercury emission scenarios
Global actions for a healthy planet:
Climate change convention
Minamata conventions on mercury, etc.

Undisclosed

Growth in mercury emission sources
ASGM, Combustion, Cement, Mining & smelting, etc.
Zhang 2021, Global health effects of futureatmospheric mercury emissions, Nat Commun 12, 3035

Nakajima K. et al. (2020) Kinzoku (Materials Science & Technology), 90, 1002-1008

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Hg emission, t-Hg/year

Scenarios in SII-6 projects
Reference scenario

Mitigation scenario
Mercury mitigation（3 types）
a-1. Step-wise reduction(EPS)/interview-based reduction

a-2. 2050 Max-reduction(EPM)
a-3. Ultimate reduction(EPU)(2020 Max-reduction)

Decarbonization（2 types）
b-1. 2-degree goal(2D)b-2. 1.5-degree goal(1.5D)

2015

2050
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Hg emission, t-Hg/year[Summary] Mitigation effects: Hg mitigation & GHG mitigation

i. Mercury mitigation effects

ii. Cobenefit by decarbonization(2050)
8

Hg emission, t-Hg/year

Mercury emission in 2015 and 2050

Electricity➡

India➡

Cement➡
Other metals➡

Africa➡

廃棄物焼却

Ref_FIX(2015)

ASGM➡
China➡
Ref_FIX(2050)

By sector

a-1(2050)

a-2,a-3(2050)

Ref_FIX(2050)

a-1(2050)

a-2,a-3(2050)

By nation9

Hg mercury, t-Hg/year

Mercury mitigation effects

10Cobenefit / Tradeoff on Mercury Emissions due to Decarbonizationb-1. Low-carbon scenario
toward the 2℃ target

400
200

50
403020100

Emission pathway
Cobenefit mitigation
Emission pathway

1000

60

2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

070

Historical (GMA2018)
PowerSolarWind

Transport
Biomass

Reference
Building
Biomasswith CCS

800
600
400

Bounce-back of Hgemissions due tobiomass power
generation

2000

Low-carbon

90
80
70
60

Biomass
power
generation

50
40
30
20
1002015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

600

1200

Global electricity generation
[PWh]

800

80

2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

1000

1400

Global Hg Emission (tHg)

1200

90

2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

Global electricity generation[PWh]

Global Hg Emission (tHg)

1400

b-2. Deep-decarbonization scenario
toward the 1.5℃ target

Deep-decarbonization

Industry
Natural gas

Natural gas
with CCS

環境研究総合推進費 終了研究成果報告書 SII-6-2（https://www.erca.go.jp/suishinhi/seika/db/pdf/end_houkoku/S2-6-2.pdf）

Oil

Coal

Coalwith CCS

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear11Mercury mitigation effect and tradeoff in ASGM

1,740Mg

GEF ASGM funding(2002~2022)

506

46,700Mg

Accumulative waste
management cost(2015-2050)

million dollars

168 million dollars
Kosai S. et al.(2023), Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 188, 106708, Kosai S. et al. (2023) J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 25, 2681–2690

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Mitigation effects and trade-off in ASGM

13

Discrepancies inMercury Trade

14

Indicators for effectiveness evaluation of the MC on Mercury

https://minamataconvention.org/en/documents/first-effectiveness-evaluation-minamata-15

Inconsistencies of mercury flow in global trade concerning artisanaland small-scale gold mining activity

16

Exploring illegal trade of mercury from discrepancy
with trade statistics

Undisclosed

17

Thank you for your kind attention!

This research was financially supported by
the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of Japan [SII-6-2(JPMEERF20S20620)].

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