PROGRAM OF THE MEETINGThe 55th Annual Meeting of the Population Association of Japan
June 6-7,2003

Hiroshi Ohbuchi, President
Yoshio Yoshida, Chair, Organizing Committee

Venue: Nagaragawa Convention Center2695-2 Nagara Fukumitsu, Gifu-shi, Japan 502-0817
TEL: +81-58-296-1200 FAX: +81-58-296-1210
http://www.g-ncc.jp/

SummaryFriday, June 6
9:00〜Registration

9:30〜12:30

Theme Session 1: Population Issues in Islamic Societies
4F Large conference room 1
General Session 1

4F Large conference room 2General Session 2

4F Large conference room 3General Session 3

2F The 5th conference room

12:30〜13:30

Lunch Break / PAJ Board of Directors’ Meeting

3F The 2nd conference room

13:30〜14:00

Presidential Address

4F Large conference room

14:00〜14:10

Welcome Address from the Host Organization

4F Large conference room

14:10〜15:00

General Membership Meeting

4F Large conference room

15:00〜18:00

Symposium :Children-decreasing Society and Changing Family System
4F Large conference room

18:10〜20:10

Welcome Reception

Saturday, June 7
8:30〜Registration

9:00〜12:30

Theme Session 2: Demography of Population Decline
4F Large conference room 1General Session 4

4F Large conference room 2General Session 54F Large conference room 3General Session 62F The 5th conference room

12:30〜13:30

Lunch Break

13:30〜17:00

Theme Session 3: Population Changes and Regional Societies
4F Large conference room 1General Session 7

4F Large conference room 2General Session 84F Large conference room 3General Session 92F The 5th conference room

June 6(Fri.), 2003

Registration

9:00〜

Theme Session 1:

9:30〜12:30

Population Issues in Islamic Societies＜Organizer＞

KOJIMA ， HIROSHI (National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research)＜Chair＞

TANADA, HIROFUMI (Waseda University)

1. Islamic Religious Leader and Population Policy: Tambacounda and Kolda in Senegal
・・・・・・OHASHI，KEITA (Universite de Montreal)
2. Family Planning in Bangladesh
・・・・・・MATSUZAWA，YUKO (Inada Child Birth House)
3. Fertility in Rural Area in West Java, Indonesia
・・・・・・SEKIYAMA，MAKIKO(University of Tokyo)

4. Malaysia and International Labor Migration
・・・・・・OTSUKA，TOMOMI(Nihon University)

5. An Estimate of Muslim Population in Japan・・・・・・KOJIMA ， HIROSHI(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)＜Discussants＞ HAYASE，YASUKO(Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)

General Session 1:

9:30〜12:30＜Chair＞ INOUE, SHUNICHI (Nihon University)
1. Difference between the Census and the Registered Population
・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ YANAGI ， YOUJI (Statistics Bureau ・ Statistics Center,
Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts
and Telecommunications)
2. Fertility Rate Estimate by Own-Children Method
・ ・ ・・ ・・ IHARA ， HAJIME (Statistics Bureau ・ Statistics Center,
Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Postsand Telecommunications)・・・・・・RETHERFORD, ROBERT D. (East-West Center )・・・・・・MATSUKURA，RIKIYA(Nihon University Population

Research Institute)
3. Forecasting Japan's Life Tables with Special Reference to the Lee-Carter Method.
・・・・・・NANJO，ZENJI(Tohoku-gakuin University)

・・・・・・YOSHINAGA，KAZUHIKO (Fukuoka University)＜Chair＞ OKADA，MINORU(Chuo University)

4. Population, Development and the Environment: Malthusian Model vs. Boserupian Model・・・・・・KINOSHITA，FUTOSHI(University of Tsukuba)

5. Sussmilch "Die Gottliche Ordnung" and Today
・・・・・UTSUMI，KENJU (The University of Aizu Junior College)
General Session 2:＜Chair＞ KITO，HIROSI

9:30〜12:30(Sophia University)

1. Characteristic of Household Structure in Nineteenth Century Japan・・・・・・OKADA，AOI (Teikyo University)
2. Household Life Course in Two Farming Villages in Northeastern Tokugawa Japan:
Retirement, Death, and Extinction
・・・・・・TSUYA，NORIKO(Keio University)

・・・・・・KUROSU，SATOMI (Reitaku University)
3. Economic Crisis and Population Change in Early Modern Kyoto
・・・・・・HAMANO，KIYOSHI＜Chair＞ MORIOKA，JIN(Kansai University)(KOMAZAWA UNIVERSITY)

4. The Health oｆ the Elderly and Their Labor Force Participation
・・・・・・OGAWA，NAOHIRO(Nihon University Population

Research Institute)・・・・・・MATSUKURA，RIKIYA (Nihon University Population
Research Institute)
5. Marital Status Specific Health Expectancy in Japan・・・・・・KOMATSU，RYUICHI(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)・・・・・・SAITO，YASUHIKO(Nihon University PopulationResearch Institute)
6. Fading Significance of "Population Explosion" and Impending Crisis of Human Survival
・・・・・・KURODA，TOSHIO(Japanese Organization forInternational Cooperation in Family Planning)
General Session 3:

9:30〜12:30＜Chair＞ TSUBOUCHI，YOSHIHIRO(Konan Women's University)

1. Fertility Differentials in India Based on 2001 Census
・・・・・・NISHIKAWA，YUIKO(Josai University)

2. Family Planning Program in India: Its Early Stage till 1950s・・・・・・SAGAZA，HARUO(Waseda University)

3. The Population Policy and Reproductive Rights in South Korea
・・・・・・YAMAJI，KUMIKO (Kobe University)＜Chair＞ KOKARIMAI，KIYOHIRO(Toyo University)

4. The economics of child labour and an increase of population in South Asia.
・・・・・・IZUMIDA, TERUHIKO (Chuo University)
5.

A Field Study on Population and Divorce Problem in Hotan Country, Xinjiang Area, China
・・・・・・ABUDUKELIMU，XIANMUXINU(Tokyo University ofAgriculture and Technology)
6. The Mobilization of Ethnic Population in Xinjiang Area, China
・・・・・・SHOWKET,FAIZULLA (Tokyo University of Agricultureand Technology)
Symposium:

15:00〜18:00

Children-decreasing Society and Changing Family System＜Organizer＞ YOSHIDA，YOSHIO (Asahi University)＜Chair＞ KANEKIYO, HIROYUKI(Meiji University)

1. Marriage in the Low Fertility Society・・・・・・ANZO，SHINJI(Meiji University)

2. Work, Timing of Fertility and Child Care Support
・・・・・・NAGASE，NOBUKO(Ochanomizu University)

3. Below-Replacement Fertility and Family Policies
・・・・・・ATOH，MAKOTO(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)＜Discussants＞
FURUGORI, NAOKO(Chuo University)
EMIKO, OCHIAI (Kyoto University)
Welcome Reception:

18:10〜20:10
June 7(Sat.), 2003

Registration

8:30〜

Theme Session 2:

9:00〜12:30

Demography of Population Decline

＜Organizer＞ KONO，SHIGEMI＜Chair＞ SAGAZA，HARUO(Reitaku University)(Waseda University)

1. An Analysis of Marital Fertility by Life Table Techniques・・・・・・BEPPU，MOTOMI(Reitaku University)

2. Methodological Development in Analysis of Low Fertility
・・・・・・SUZUKI，TORU(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
3. Demographic Mechanisms of Declining Fertility in Japan・・・・・・RYUICHI，KANEKO(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
4. Decomposition of Population Aging in Japan・・・・・・ISHIKAWA，AKIRA(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
5. On the Contribution of First Marriage Behavior and Couples' Reproductive Behavior to the
Change of TFR
・・・・・・IWASAWA，MIHO(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
6. Empirical Evidence on Fertility Decline in Japan・・・・・・OYAMA，MASAKO(Hitotsubashi University)＜Discussants＞
INABA，HISASHI(University of Tokyo)

TSUYA，NORIKO(Keio University)

General Session 4:

9:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ WAKABAYASHI，KEIKO(Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

1. Population Transition in Contemporary Russia
・・・・・・TROUKHINE MIKAIL(Waseda University)

2. Population and Employment in Mongolia
・・・・・・SURUGA，TERUKAZU(Osaka Prefecture University)

3. Population Analysis of Paradise Village in Solomon Islands
・・・・・・NAKAZAWA，MINATO(Yamaguchi PrefecturalUniversity)
・・・・・・OHTSUKA，RYUTARO＜Chair＞ WATANABE，MACHIKO
4. International Migration in Asia

(Meikai University)(University of Tokyo)

・・・・・・HAYASE，YASUKO(Institute of Developing Economies,JETRO)
5. Migration and Inequality: the Case of Thailand during 1990's・・・・・・KURITA，KYOSUKE(Hitotsubashi University)

6. Transition of Human Resources Development Policy in Singapore
・・・・・・ANNOURA，TAKASHI(Shoin University)

General Session 5:

9:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ OBAYASHI，SENICHI(Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management Home
Affairs, Post and Telecommunications)

1. Determinants of Internal Migration during the Oil Crisis in Japan Based on 1980 National
Census Data by Age and Sex
・・・・・・ITO，KAORU(Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University)

2. Determinants of Childbearing after Age 25 among Japanese Married Women in theMid-1990s.
・・・・・・NOMAGUCHI，KEI(University of Maryland)

3. A Study on the Declining Birthrate Problem
・・・・・・ANDO，AYUTA＜Chair＞ SUGINO，MOTOSUKE(Hitotsubashi University)(Kyushu Kyoritsu University)

4. Estimation of Cost of Children: Using Japanese Household Expenditure and Asset Data・・・・・・TAKEZAWA，JUNKO(Ochanomizu University)

・・・・・・NAGASE，NOBUKO(Ochanomizu University)

5. Endogenous Fertility, Rearing Cost of Children and Economic Growth・・・・・・CHOU，TAN(Osaka University of Economics)

General Session 6:

9:00〜12:30＜Chair＞ KANEKIYO，HIROYUKI(Meiji University)

1. Household Formation of Japanese Youth・・・・・・TAKADA，SHINOBU(Ochanomizu University)

2. An Analysis of the Determination Mechanism of Home Leaving Behavior by the IncomeLevel
・・・・・・FUKUDA，SETSUYA(Meiji University)

3. A Review of Theories and Evidences Referring to the Current Level and Trend of Fecundityin Japan・・・・・・SATO，RYUZABURO(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)SAOTOME, SATOKO(Fureai Yokohama Hospital)

SHIRAISHI, NORIKO(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)＜Chair＞ WADA，KOHEI(Chuo University)

4. Macroeconomic Environment and the Behavior of Marriage and Birth・・・・・・HISAKAZU，KATO(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
5. Unemployment and Marriage
・・・・・・YOSHIDA，CHIZU(Kanto Gakuin University)

6. Effects of Family Structure, Social Stratification, and Economic Growth on the Timing ofDivorce・・・・・・KATO，AKIHIKO(Teikyo University)

Theme Session 3:

13:30〜17:00

Population Changes and Regional Societies＜Organizer/ Chair＞ ITO，KAORU(Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University)

1. Population and Kyoto City Management System
・・・・・・YAMADA，KATSUHIRO(Kyoto Sangyo University)

2. The Population Movements in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
・・・・・・YOSHIOKA，SHIGERU(Rissho University)

3. The Analysis of Population Dynamics in Tokyo Metropolitan Area: With Reference to thePopulation Increase in the Center of Tokyo・・・・・・KANEKO，HIDEFUMI(Tokyo MetropolitanGovernment)
4. The Analysis of Reurbanization of Mega Cities in Japan・・・・・・OSHIRO，SUMIO(City of Nagoya)

5. Development of a Regional, Single-Age Population Projection in Japan・・・・・・OOBA，TAMOTSU(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
6. The Role of Regional Employment Development in Human Development of Japan・・・・・・NOGAMI，HIROKI(Institute of Developing Economies,JETRO)＜Discussants＞ SAKAI，SADAHIKO
General Session 7:＜Chair＞ WATANABE，YOSHIKAZU(Aichi Syukutoku University)
13:30〜17:00(International University of Health and Welfare)1. Household Changes of the Elderly in Recent Japan・・・・・・KOYAMA，YASUYO(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)
2. Life Expectancy: Japan & Taiwan
・・・・・・OKABE，KYOKO(The University of Kitakyushu)

3. Income Difference and Health Status among the Aged Persons
・・・・・・KOJIMA，KATSUHISA(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)＜Chair＞ ABE，TAKASHI(Japan Women's University)

4. Analysis of Population in Miyagi Prefecture
・・・・・・HAGIHARA，JUN(Miyagi University)

5. Is the Average Life Span of Aomori Prefecture the Shortest in Japan?
・・・・・・SAKAI，HIROMICHI(Saitama Prefectural University)

General Session 8:

13:30〜17:00＜Chair＞ ISHI, YOSHIKUNI(Josai University)

1. Latest Marriage Trends: Findings from NFS12・・・・・・KANEKO，RYUICHI(National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research)・・・・・・MITA, FUSAMI
Social(National Institute of Population andSecurity Research)

2. Trends in Couples' Fertility: Findings from NFS12・・・・・・SASAI，TSUKASA(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
3. Attitude toward Number of Children: Findings from NFS12・・・・・・MORIIZUMI，RIE(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)＜Chair＞ KANEKIYO，HIROYUKI(Meiji University)

4. Life Course among Unmarried Youth: Findings from NFS12・・・・・・KAMANO，SAORI(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)
5. Declining Marriage Rate in Japan: the Role of Marriage Market Composition and Spouse
Pairing Preferences
・・・・・・JAMES M. REYMO(University of Wisconsin)

・・・・・・IWASAWA，MIHO(National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research)General Session 9:＜Chair＞ OE, MORIYUKI

13:30〜17:00(Keio University)

1. Changes of Vital Rates and Migration Rates by Region since 1900
・・・・・・TAKAHASHI，SHINICHI(Kobe University)

2. Potential and Real Migrants of Pre-war Japan from a Regional Perspective
・・・・・・NAKAGAWA，SATOSHI(Kobe University)

3. Regional and Seasonal Differences of Mortality in Japan, 1920-40
・・・・・・INOUE，TAKASHI＜Chair＞ TAKAHASHI, SHIGESATO(Aoyama Gakuin University)(National Institute of Population and Social SecurityResearch)

4. Family and Household Projections by Micro-simulation Model・・・・・・INAGAKI，SEIICHI(Farmers' Pension Funds)

5. Fertility Trend and Family Policies in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the Netherland
・・・・・・HARA，TOSHIHIKO(Hokkaido Tokai University)