Population Association of Japan

2005 Annual Meeting Program

June 4 – 5, 2005
Kobe University

2-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku
Kobe 658-8501 Japan
TEL.+81-78-881-1212

President
ATO, Makoto
Chair, Organizing Committee
TAKAHASHI, Shinichi

Program Summary
Saturday 4 June
０９：００
０９：３０〜１２：３０

Registration
Theme Session 1: Population Decline and Society from Regional
Perspective( 2F 232 )General Session 1 3F 324
General Session 2 3F 320
General Session 3 2F 230

１２：３０〜１３：３０
１２：３０〜１３：３０
１３：３０〜１４：００
１４：００〜１４：１０
１４：１０〜１５：００

Lunch BreakPAJ Board of Director’s Meeting
Presidential Lecture ( 2F 232 )Welcome Address from the Host Organization ( 2F 232 )General Membership Meeting ( 2F 232 )１５：００〜１８：００

Symposium: Future of the Japanese Baby Boom Generation( 2F 232 )Welcome Reception ( Academic Hall 3F Restaurant “Sakura” )１８：１５〜２０：００

Sunday 5 June
０８：３０
０９：００〜１２：３０

Registration
Theme Session 2: Emergence of Lowest-low Fertility and Policy
Responses in Some Asian Countries ( 2F 232 )General Session 4 ( 3F 324 )General Session 5 ( 3F 320 )General Session 6 ( 2F 230 )１２：３０〜１３：３０

Lunch Break

１３：３０〜１７：００

Theme Session 3: Diversification of Union Formation ( 2F 232 )General Session 7 ( 3F 324 )General Session 8 ( 3F 320 )General Session 9 ( 2F 230 )2Population Association of Japan

2005 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 4 June

9 : 00

９：３０〜１２：３０

Registration

Theme Session 1 (Room No. 232)
Population Decline and Society from Regional Perspective
Organizer / Chair：ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka（Kyoto University）
Discussant：INOUE, Takashi（Aoyama Gakuin University）
ABE, Takashi（Japan Women’s University）
OOBA, Tamotsu ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Relationships (correlation efficients, slopes, and Intercepts) Between Net Migration
Rates (prefecture, sex, 1-year age, and era ) and GDP Growth Rates
YAMAGAMI, Tatsuya ( Ritsumeikan University )Changing Spatial Structure of Metropolitan Areas in the Era of Population Decline
KOIKE, Shiro ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )NAKAGAWA, Satoshi ( Kobe University )Where is Population Decreasing ? Population Change at Micro-Scale
ESAKI, Yuji ( Senshu University )ARAI, Yoshio ( Tokyo University )NAGANUMA, Sae ( Tokyo University )Population Stagnation and Aging in the Suburbs of the Metropolitan Areas in JapanYOSHIOKA, Shigeru ( Rissho University )The Characteristic of Population Movement of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

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General Session 1 (Room No. 324)
Chair : HAYASE, Yasuko (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.)
NISHIKAWA, Yuiko ( Josai University )Ageing in India: Its Regional Differentials and Reflection
Wen-fong Lu ( Ottawa Social Science Research Centre, Canada )The Impact of Canadian Population Aging on Fiscal Consequences
KURODA, Toshio ( Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning )Population Ageing and the Role of Japan: The Greatest Population Dynamics andJapan
Chair : WAKABAYASHI, Keiko ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology )MATSUSHITA, Keiichiro ( Kansai University )Changes in Population and Household Composition: Demographic Profile of Galok,Malaysia, from 1971 to 2000
UTSUMI, Kenju ( University of Aizu Junior College Division )Israel and Population
KASAHARA, Hiroyoshi ( Reitaku University )Analysis of Pension Policy Based on Change of Population Composition (Japan,U.S., and China)

General Session 2 (Room No. 320)
Chair : ISHI, Yoshikuni ( Josai University )SURUGA, Terukazu ( Kobe University)
Changing Population Structure in MongoliaKAMATA, Osamu ( Chuo University )Labor Migration and Land Settlement for Japanese-Brazilian WorkersFeng, Wenmeng (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology )The current situation of Internal Migrants in China: Research based on theinvestigation in Beijing and Shanghai
Chair : HAMA, Hidehiko ( Seijo University, ret. )KURITA, Kyosuke ( Hitotsubashi University )Analysis of Migration in Thailand: Panel Gravity Analysis using Provincial Data
ITO, Kaoru (Gifu Shotoku-Gakuen University )Determinants of Elderly Long-Distance Migration in JapanNAGAI, Yasuo ( Chuo University, ret. )Birth and Growth Process of Baby Boom Generation: Analysis that Centers on
Demographic Shift4

General Session 3 (Room No. 230)
Chair : OKADA, Minoru ( Chuo University )MORIIZUMI, Rie ( Toyo University )Predictive Validity and Structure of the Intended Number of Children in Japan
MITA, Fusami ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )IKENOUE, Masako ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Change in Couple's Meeting Place and Recent Decline in First Marriage Rates
FUKUDA, Setsuya ( Meiji University )A Comparative Analysis of First Marriage in EuropeChair : TSUYA, Noriko ( Keio University )NAGASE, Nobuko ( Ochanomizu University )Comparison of Women’s Work and Child Bearing in Seoul, Beijing and Japan: WithSpecial Attention to Opportunity Cost of Care Givers and Kin Network
Mei Hsu ( National Taipei University )Why the Fertility Rate and Female Labor Force Participation Rate are so Low inTaiwan?
CHITOSE, Yoshimi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Grand Parents as Child Care Providers: Intergenerational Relationship Between
Adult Children and Paternal, Maternal Parents

12 : 30 – 13 : 30Lunch Break

12 : 30 – 13 : 30PAJ Board of Director’s Meeting

13 : 30 – 14 : 00

Presidential Address (Room No.232)

14 : 00 – 14 : 10

Welcome Address (Room No.232)

14 : 10 – 15 : 00

General Membership Meeting (Room No.232)
5Saturday 4 June

１５：００〜１８：００

Symposium (Room No.232)
Future of the Japanese Baby Boom Generation
Organizer：TAKAHASHI, Shinichi ( Kobe University )Chair：TAKAHASHI, Shigesato ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Discussant：WATANABE, Machiko ( Meikai University )ABE, Takashi ( Japan Women’s University )OSHIO, Takashi ( Kobe University )Working Style
OKAMURA, Kiyoko (Tokyo Woman's Christian University )Family Formation
ITO, Kaoru ( Gifu Shotoku-Gakuen University )Living and Residential Arrangement

18 : 15 – 20 : 00

Welcome Party(Academic Hall 3F

Restaurant “Sakura” )6Population Association of Japan

2005 Annual Meeting Program
Sunday 5 June

8 : 30

９：００〜１２：３０

Registration

Theme Session 2 (Room No.232)
Emergence of Lowest-low Fertility and Policy
Responses in Some Asian Countries
Organizer：KONO, Shigemi ( Reitaku University )Chair：TSUYA, Noriko ( Keio University )Discussant：INOUE, Shunichi ( Nihon University, ret. )SATO, Ryuzaburo ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )MOTOMI, Beppu ( Reitaku University )Tempo Effects of Lowest-low Fertility in Selected Asian Countries
SUZUKI, Toru ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Lowest-low Fertility in Korea
KOJIMA, Katsuhisa ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Declining Fertility and Social Security Policy in Taiwan
KOJIMA, Hiroshi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Fertility-Related Attitudes in East Asia
SASAI, Tsukasa ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )The Determinants of Fertility Decline and Population Policy in Asian Low-Fertility
Regions
NOGAMI, Hiroki ( Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO )The Role of Social Capital in Policy Response for Low Fertility Rates in Asia

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General Session 4 (Room No. 324)
Chair：KITO, Hiroshi ( Sophia University )KUROSU, Satomi ( Reitaku University )Regional Diversity of Marriage and Fertility in Early-Modern JapanOKADA, Aoi ( Teikyo University )Regional Diversity of Hpusehold Structure in Early-Modern JapanWASHIZAKI, Shuntaro (JSPS Research Fellow )A Study of the Relation between Migration and Rent in the Post-town ofToride:1787-1836
Chair：SAITO, Osamu ( Hitotsubashi University )HAMANO, Kiyoshi ( Kansai University )Demographic Profile of Servants in Late Tokugawa Kyoto City
KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi ( Tezukayama University )Construction of a Database System for Analyzing the Japanese Temple DeathRegisters
IKE, Shuichiro ( Teikyo University )Diffusionist Revisited

General Session 5 (Room No. 320)
Chair：IKEGAMI, Kiyoko ( UNFPA Tokyo Office )REYILA, Maimaiti ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology )Reproductive Health of Married Women in XinJiang China
Song-Bing ( Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology )An Exploration on the Role of Family Planning in Family Health in China’s RuralArea
OHASHI, Keita ( Montreal University )Effects of Triple Threats in Southern Africa against Reproductive Health
Chair：SAOTOME, Sachiko ( Fureai Yokohama Hospital )ARYAL, Nabin ( Hitotsubashi University )Who are the Birth Limiters in Nepal ? A Case Study of the Determinants ofSterilization in Rural Kathmandu
SAWADA, Kayo ( JSPS, Ochanomizu University )The Politics of "Family Planning" in Okinawa under U.S. Military Occupation,
1945-1972
ANDOH, Ayuta ( Chuo University )Below-Replacement Fertility and Population Policy (1)8General Session 6 (Room No. 230)
Chair：EMI, Koichi ( Hitotsubashi University )KANEKO, Ryuichi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )A Demographic Analysis of the Process to Lowest-low Fertility in Japan
IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Raymo, M. James ( University of Wisconsin at Madison )Bumpass, Larry ( University of Wisconsin at Madison )Unmarried Cohabitation in Japan
OGAWA, Naohiro ( Nihon University )Economic Uncertainties and Fertility Change
Chair：YAMAGUCHI, Mitoshi ( Kobe University )Zhao Tong ( Tokushima University )Fertility Choice and Capital Accumulation in Two Sector Model of Economic
GrowthOHTSUKA, Tomomi ( Nihon University )Economic Grouth and Population change in Japan
MATSUKURA, Rikiya ( Nihon University )Nemoto, Kazuo ( Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications )Micro-level Analysis of the Labor Market Based on Various Rounds of theEmployment Status Survey

12 : 30 – 13 : 30

Lunch Break9

Sunday 5 June

１３：３０〜１７：００

Theme Session 3 (Room No. 232)
Diversification of Union Formation
Organizer：ANZO, Shinji ( Meiji University )Chair：KAMANO, Saori ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Discussant：ATO, Makoto ( Waseda University )KATO, Akihiko ( Meiji University )KAMATA, Kenji ( Meiji University )International Comparison, viewing from "Gender system", "family and Reproductive
behavior"
TAKEZAWA, Junko ( Ochanomizu University )Cohabitation in Seoul, Korea
Lee, Su Jim ( Ochanomizu University )Determinants of Marriage Selection: Focused on the Gender Differences
Raymo, M. James (University of Wisconsin )IWASAWA, Miho ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Bumpass, Larry ( University of Wisconsin at Madison )Recent Trends and Differentials in Marital Dissolution in JapanTSUYA, Noriko ( Keio University )Changes in the Patterns of Union Formation in Japan: An Analysis of the 2004 JGGSData10

General Session 7 (Room No. 324)
Chair：INOUE, Shunichi ( Nihon University, ret. )ISHIKAWA, Akira ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )The Impact of International Migration on the Future Population of JapanIHARA, Hajime ( Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems )Population Projection of Japan by Monthly Cohort Method in Preliminary
Calculation
TRUKHIN, Mikhail ( Waseda University )The Future Population Projections by Russian PopulationMURATA, Hisashi ( Yamamura Gakuin College )Estimate of Population by Neural Network Model
Chair：OKAZAKI, Yoichi ( Nihon University, ret. )KATO, Hisakazu ( Meiji University )Simultaneous Equations Model of Birth and Marriage, and the Monte carlo
Simulation
ISHII, Futoshi ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Population Momentum in the Multiregional Population Models
NAKAZAWA, Minato ( Gunma University )Virtual “Paradise”: A Microsimulation of Paradise Population in Solomon Islands

General Session 8 (Room No. 320)
Chair：SAGAZA, Haruo ( Waseda University, ret. )ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka ( Kyoto University )Why Does the Number of Foreign Residents in Japan Differ Between thePopulation Census and the Registration Statistics ?
TERADA, Yoshihide (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications )Some Changes on Tabulation of Results of 2005 Population Census Considering
the Recent Change of Social Economic Conditions
YAMADA, Shigeru ( Kokushikan University )Bias of Result of Household Surveys on Employment and Housing
Chair：OBAYASHI, Senichi ( Population Census Division, Statistic Bureau )TABATA, Tomoko ( Hokkaido University )2002 Russian Population Census: Characteristics of Its Major ResultsNAKAGAWA, Satoshi ( Kobe University )Migration in Japan before the Second World War
HIROSIMA, Kiyosi ( Shimane University )Is Life Expectancy Overestimated? : Total Vital Rate Theorem Applied to Mortality
11General Session 9 (Room No. 230)
Chair：OHBUCHI, Hiroshi ( Chuo University )SATO, Ryuzaburo ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )SHIRAISHI, Noriko ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )BANDO, Rieko ( National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Fifteen Years since "1.57 Shock": A Review of Fertility-related Policies in Japan
HARA, Toshihiko ( Hokkaido Tokai University )Socio-Economic Factors of Fertility Decline in Hokkaido
SAKAI, Hiromichi ( Saitama Prefectural University )The Relationship of Municipality Mergers and the Population Age Structure
KIMURA, Yoshio (Hyogo University )Why the TFR of Izena island is high ?
Chair：KANEKIYO, Hiroyuki ( Meiji University )KONO, Michikazu ( Himeji City Office )Political Issues of Immigration in JapanSHIRAI, Izumi ( Keio University )Marital-Status Differentials in Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan
MASUDA, Mikito ( Komazawa University )The Effect of Population Density on Resource and Environment

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