Profiles and Prospects(Monographs)

T R A N S P O R T
C O N F E R E N C E

O F

M I N I S T E R S

O FTRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURE
IN ECMT
COUNTRIES

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EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT

TRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURE
IN ECMT COUNTRIESProfiles and Prospects(Monographs)

EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT (ECMT)The European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) is an inter-governmental organisation
established by a Protocol signed in Brussels on 17 October 1953. It is a forum in which Ministers responsible fortransport, and more specifically the inland transport sector, can co-operate on policy. Within this forum, Ministers
can openly discuss current problems and agree upon joint approaches aimed at improving the utilisation and atensuring the rational development of European transport systems of international importance.
At present, the ECMT’s role primarily consists of:– helping to create an integrated transport system throughout the enlarged Europe that is economically andtechnically efficient, meets the highest possible safety and environmental standards and takes full accountof the social dimension;– helping also to build a bridge between the European Union and the rest of the continent at a politicallevel.
The Council of the Conference comprises the Ministers of Transport of 36 full Member countries: Austria,
Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (F.Y.R.O.M.), Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania,
the Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine
and the United Kingdom. There are five Associate member countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand andthe United States) and four Observer countries (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Morocco).
A Committee of Deputies, composed of senior civil servants representing Ministers, prepares proposals forconsideration by the Council of Ministers. The Committee is assisted by working groups, each of which has a
specific mandate.
The issues currently being studied – on which policy decisions by Ministers will be required – include thedevelopment and implementation of a pan-European transport policy; the integration of Central and Eastern
European Countries into the European transport market; specific issues relating to transport by rail, road andwaterway; combined transport; transport and the environment; the social costs of transport; trends in internationaltransport and infrastructure needs; transport for people with mobility handicaps; road safety; traffic management,road traffic information and new communications technologies.
Statistical analyses of trends in traffic and investment are published yearly by the ECMT and provide a clear
indication of the situation in the transport sector in different European countries.
As part of its research activities, the ECMT holds regular Symposia, Seminars and Round Tables ontransport economics issues. Their conclusions are considered by the competent organs of the Conference under
the authority of the Committee of Deputies and serve as a basis for formulating proposals for policy decisions tobe submitted to Ministers.
The ECMT’s Documentation Service is one of the world’s leading centres for transport sector datacollection. It maintains the TRANSDOC database, which is available on CD-ROM and accessible via thetelecommunications network.
For administrative purposes the ECMT’s Secretariat is attached to the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Publié en français sous le titre :L’INFRASTRUCTURE DES TRANSPORTS DANS LES PAYS DE LA CEMT
Panorama et perspectives (Monographies)

Further information about the ECMT is available on Internet at the following address:
http://www.oecd.org/cem/

 ECMT 1998
ECMT Publications are distributed by:OECD Publications Service,
2, rue André Pascal, F-75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France.

FOREWORD

As early as 1986, the ECMT drew attention to the problems that might arise for traffic flows in
Europe in the future, essentially as a result of the probable development of bottlenecks at a number oflocations in the road infrastructure.
In 1993, the publication on European transport trends and infrastructural needs set out various
policy measures to gear European transport infrastructure more effectively to requirements.
The present report aims towards a comparative basis of inland transport infrastructures in the
ECMT Member countries. It has been presented to the Ministers in Berlin in April 1997 together
with political conclusions meant for background elements of a debate on infrastructure development
to be held in Helsinki during the 3rd Paneuropean Conference on Transport.

3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

AUSTRIA.................................................................................................................................. 7
BELGIUM............................................................................................................................... 23
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA .................................................................................................... 41
BULGARIA ............................................................................................................................ 49
CROATIA ............................................................................................................................... 61
CZECH REPUBLIC................................................................................................................ 73
DENMARK............................................................................................................................. 91
ESTONIA .............................................................................................................................. 103
FINLAND.............................................................................................................................. 115
FRANCE ............................................................................................................................... 127
GERMANY........................................................................................................................... 143
GREECE................................................................................................................................ 167
HUNGARY ........................................................................................................................... 173
IRELAND.............................................................................................................................. 181
ITALY ................................................................................................................................... 195
LATVIA ................................................................................................................................ 213
LITHUANIA ......................................................................................................................... 227
MOLDOVA........................................................................................................................... 243
NETHERLANDS .................................................................................................................. 251
NORWAY ............................................................................................................................. 267
POLAND............................................................................................................................... 279
PORTUGAL.......................................................................................................................... 291
ROMANIA ............................................................................................................................ 297
SLOVAK REPUBLIC........................................................................................................... 305
SLOVENIA ........................................................................................................................... 327
SPAIN.................................................................................................................................... 335
SWEDEN .............................................................................................................................. 347
SWITZERLAND................................................................................................................... 359
TURKEY............................................................................................................................... 367
UNITED KINGDOM............................................................................................................ 379
5

AUSTRIA
2

Area: 83 000 km
Population: 8 100 000

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Given its central geographical position, Austria is expecting very high growth in traffic(particularly freight) owing to the opening up of the economies of eastern Europe. The expected
growth is a main concern of national transport policy. Specific action has been taken at both national
and international level to ensure that a high proportion of the forecast traffic will be carried on
environment-friendly modes, such as rail, and that road transport respects the highest possible
ecological standards.
With regard to traffic involving its neighbours to the East, Austria has concluded a number ofbilateral agreements with Poland, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia in recent years. These agreements
take a multimodal approach to road freight. With other countries, negotiations are under way ornearing completion, as in the case of the Czech and Slovak Republics, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYROM
and Lithuania. Such agreements aim to promote the use of rail and combined transport(road/rail/waterway). Certain exceptional measures have been planned for combined transport users,
such as:− the award of additional quotas for transit traffic;− the authorisation to carry freight at the week-end and at night (usually prohibited).

Passenger traffic
Forecasting methods
Traffic flows expected by the year 2000 and 2010 between the central and eastern Europe
countries (CEECs) and Austria (Rosniak and Snizek, “Traffic growth in the eastern European
countries and impact on the major road network, 1989”) will depend largely on the economic
development of these countries. Among the factors likely to influence passenger transport demand
are: purchasing power in the CEECs, transport costs (price of fuel and tickets), the cost of overnightstays, customs duties on tourist purchases, the volume of business travel, access to the Austrianlabour market for CEEC nationals and, to a lesser extent, vice versa, as well as the tourism generated
by the regions concerned.

7

The forecast uses both an integration scenario and a stagnation scenario. These give a range ofresults which should be viewed as orders of magnitude.
− The integration scenario is based on a number of assumptions concerning the political andeconomic progress of the CEECs and the introduction of market economy structures. It thus
assumes that European integration will extend to eastern Europe and result in:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

economic development in the region after a short transitional phase;growth in real income and a substantial increase in East-West trade;adjustment to western standards of goods produced in eastern Europe;
international division of labour;
gradual levelling of wage/price differentials;
a pattern of alternating migration replacing one-way migrations;heavy flows of westbound and eastbound holidaymakers;
gradual levelling out of car ownership and increased pollution.

− The stagnation scenario assumes that the positive economic effects forecast in the otherscenario will not occur, resulting in a lower level of pollution and tourism (however, even
without economic progress in eastern Europe, the pollution level is very high).
In any case, Austria’s transport policy will attach great importance to environmental protection
and human health.
According to Rosniak and Snizek, the figures in the two scenarios are maxima which areunlikely to be attained. They also find the integration scenario unlikely to be borne out and in fact
consider more likely that the positive trends to date will deteriorate or stagnate.
Generally speaking, they think that trends in passenger traffic flows will be similar in magnitude
to those previously seen in western Europe. However, on the basis of population trends, this new
potential is lower, as the total population of eastern Europe (156 million) is well below that ofwestern Europe (229 million). In 1987, the total population of Austria’s three neighbours to the east-- Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic -- was only 27 million as against
148 million in Germany, Switzerland, Italy and the former Yugoslavia, the four neighbouring
countries to the West.
The integration scenario results in traffic growth to and from eastern Europe equivalent to that
previously recorded to and from West Germany, Italy and Switzerland. According to this scenario,
car ownership and mobility in eastern Europe would increase sharply. In 2010, car ownership should
therefore be 450 vehicles per 1 000 inhabitants and the average distance covered would be 15 000 km
per year. As in western Europe, the future trend in mobility would be greatly to the advantage of theprivate car.
Some convergence in international travel behaviour is to be expected between the inhabitants of
the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, Poland and eastern Germany and those of western
European countries. As regards the structure of travel and reasons for travel, the importance of“purchases” should decline as the differences in the availability of goods and price levels between the
East and West are reduced. For other kinds of travel (excluding that connected with school holidays),
excursions and business trips should also increase. Local flows in the form of home/work commuter
traffic between Pressburg (Bratislava) and Vienna should develop.
8Under the stagnation scenario, compared with other kinds of traffic, the volume of holiday
traffic would not be very different from what it is today. For car ownership, the assumption is thesame as in the integration scenario (450 private cars per 1 000 inhabitants), although the averageannual distance covered would be less (about 10 000 km).
Traffic forecasts
In connection with the PGO (planning programme for the eastern region), a forecasting study onrail and road passenger traffic to and from the Czech and Slovak Republics and Hungary was carriedout. It covers the Vienna region and basin and the Burgenland, Weinviertel and Wienerwald regions.
The same two scenarios were used. The results are summarised in the table below.

Volume of traffic at Austrian border check points
Number of trips per working day (both ways)
Routes to:
Prague, Brno
Bratislava
Budapest

1990
48 00028 00025 0002000/2010
50 000-70 000
30 000-60 000
25 000-35 000

As part of the PGO, studies have been conducted by Rosniak and Snizek and by the Austrian
Regional Planning Institute on various ways of improving rail links in East Austria. These studies
included traffic forecasts and the rail/road split between Austria and the Czech and Slovak Republics
and between Austria and Hungary, taking into account the upgrading of the Vienna-Bratislava line.
The same scenarios were used.
The share of public transport (following upgrading) in traffic to and from the Czech and Slovak
Republics should be around 40 to 60 per cent in 2010 and 40 to 50 per cent in traffic to and from
Hungary.
Rail passengers, private cars and coaches per day both ways

Passenger traffic between Vienna andBratislava- Rail passengers- Private cars
- Coaches
Passenger traffic to and from Hungary*- Rail passengers- Private cars
- Coaches
*

1995

2000

2010

5 000-7 000
6 000-9 000
110-160

5 000-18 000
4 000-15 000
70-2707 000-43 000
3 000-19 000
40-2403 000-6 000
6 000-11 000
70-2706 000-16 000
6 000-14 000
50-120At the Nickelsdorf/Hegyeshalom border check point.

9Forecasts were also compiled for rail passenger traffic between Vienna and Prague on the basisof the same scenarios.

Forecasts for annual rail passengers in 2010 on certain routes serving Vienna and Prague
RoutesVienna-Gmünd-Prague (Franz-Josef line)
Vienna-Breclav-Brno-Prague (northern line)

1990
237 000
334 000

2010
429 000-699 000
614 000-1 043 000

The highest traffic volume is forecast for the northern line, with 3 000 passengers a day, as
against 1 900 on the Franz-Josef line. Road traffic is not taken into account.
At the end of 1989, the volume of road traffic recorded in eastern Austria to and from the Czechand Slovak Republics and Hungary already corresponded to the level forecast in the two scenarios.
Transborder road traffic between Upper Austria and the Czech and Slovak Republics waspredicted to rise from 1 000/1 500 private cars crossing the border both ways every day in 1990 to
3 500 in the year 2000 and 5 000 in the year 2010.
No forecasts were compiled for waterway and air traffic. However, a very successful rapid
waterway service between Vienna and Bratislava is expected to progress further in the future. It isalso assumed that air traffic will expand. The Vienna airport is likely to receive strong competition
from the Budapest and Bratislava airports owing to the difference in airport taxes. The introductionof a market economy should however eliminate these differences.

Freight traffic
As for passenger traffic, the forecasts should be viewed only as orders of magnitude.
In the study by Rosniak and Snizek carried out for the PGO on rail infrastructure improvementsin this region, rail traffic was forecast for the year 2010 on a number of routes. The two tables below
summarise the findings, under various assumptions for modal splits.

Forecasts for transborder traffic in 2010
Million tonnes per mode and route
Split in 1987
RoutesVienna-North Czech.
Vienna-East Czech.
Vienna-Hungary

Rail
11.5
3.6
13.4

Road
1.5
0.8
3.2

10

In case of a
50/50 split
Rail
Road
6.5
6.5
2.2
2.2
8.3
8.3

In case of a
30/70 split
Rail
Road
3.9
9.1
1.3
3.1
5.0
11.6

Forecasts for road freight in 2010
Number of lorries per working day
RoutesVienna-North Czech.
Vienna-East Czech.
Vienna-Hungary

Split in 1987
520
300
1 050

50/50 split
1 200
1 070
2 000

30/70 split
1 770
1 500
2 700

The relative growth in traffic on each route between 1987 and 2010 is as follows:− Vienna-North Czech and Slovak Republics, 79 per cent;− Vienna-East Czech and Slovak Republics, 140 per cent;− Vienna-Hungary, 149 per cent.
Road improvements and construction of new roads were taken into account. It was assumed that
only the eastern motorway (A4), under construction when the forecast was made, would becompleted. Problems related to environmental protection and public hostility are expected as a resultof road traffic growth. Moreover, if transport policy in fact favours rail, bottlenecks are likely tooccur on the rail network. Action must therefore be taken to increase the capacity of the western andsouthern networks.
Similarly, action must be taken to improve rail traffic conditions in the Vienna region. In bothcases the aim is to respond to growth in traffic to and from the East.
Forecasts of transborder road freight between Upper Austria and the Czech and Slovak
Republics for the years 2000 and 2010 have also been done. On the Linz-Budweis-Prague route, theaverage daily number of lorries crossing the border both ways (border check-point counts) was 100 in
1990. It should be 700 in the year 2000 and 1 400 in 2010.
In the case of the integration scenario, it is stressed that the Pyhrn route will become more
attractive because of the road upgrading and construction programme in eastern Germany and theCzech Republic. Actual lorry traffic will therefore exceed the forecasts.
The results of a special study on transit in East Austria (Rosniak and Snizek, 1991) aresummarised by route and scenario in the table below (it does not include the Vienna region).

11

Number of lorries in the year 2010, by scenario and rail/road split
Per working day

RouteCzech and Slovak Republics,
Hungary, on western motorway
via Vienna
Czech and Slovak Republics,
Hungary, on southern motorway
via Vienna*

Stagnation scenario
1987
2010
about 80/20
50/50

Integration scenario
2010
2010
50/50
30/70

250

1 100

400
-2 000*2 000-2 600*

90

500

950

1 300

Assuming that 50 per cent of traffic, or 600 to 1 200 lorries, is transferred from the Pyhrn route to the
Danube route.

This table shows that, if 30 per cent of total traffic is by road, road transit would increasestrongly in the Vienna region. Taking the freight traffic generated by foreign trade between Italy andwestern Germany into account, transit would be multiplied by a factor of ten. Such volumes would
be intolerable to the communities located along these routes.
A study by Platzer (1990) forecasts growth of 253 per cent in transit traffic from eastern Europe
across Austria by the year 2000, or 3.5 times the traffic observed in 1984.
From the policy viewpoint, the shift of traffic to roads indicated in the forecasts is undesirable.
It is inevitable, however, that certain economic developments will encourage this mode. For instance,
the eventual abolition of subsidies to the raw materials industry in the CEECs following the
introduction of a market economy should reduce the proportion of mass transport by rail throughAustria and beyond. The creation of private road haulage firms and the establishment of western roadhauliers in the East should be facilitated. Market economies also attach great importance to rapid
deliveries, a service the eastern European railways will not be able to provide. Moreover, road
haulage makes it possible to save foreign currency: the fuel is bought in the East where it is lessexpensive and drivers are paid there; western railway companies charge for the services they provide.

Results of forecasts prepared in 1995
Overall forecasts
According to a study based on the forecasts in the Austrian Transport Infrastructure Plan,international traffic flows will be concentrated on the TEN routes or the priority corridors defined in
the second Pan-European Transport Conference (corridors No. 7 and No. 4).

12

Passenger transport
Passenger traffic should continue to increase. For the period 1990-2000, a recent study for the
Ministry of Transport on federal motorway networks in Austria has forecast an increase of 63 per cent
(37 per cent between 1993 and 2000) in annual motorway kilometres per vehicle (see table below)
and passenger transit traffic will rise by 74 per cent on Austrian motorways (by 44 per cent between
1993 and 2000). It is also forecast that the main increase in terms of total passenger and transit traffic
will be on the east-west routes, from Vienna to Salzburg and from Vienna to the Suben border checkpoint, and on a southern route from Vienna to Graz and then to Klagenfurt.

Traffic on the Austrian motorway network
Million kilometres per vehicle and per year

1990
1993
2000
Change between 1990 and 2000
Change between 1993 and 2000

Total passenger traffic
10 62012 60517 331
63%
37%

Transit passenger traffic
556
670
966
74%
44%

Freight transport
The modal split for freight traffic in Austria is as follows:− 60 per cent of traffic is carried by road;− 20 per cent of traffic is carried by rail;− the remaining 20 per cent consists of pipeline, waterway and air traffic.

Modal split of freight traffic in Austria in 1991

Road
Rail
Pipeline
Waterway
Air
Total

Volume carriedMillion tonnes
190.5
64.1
53.6
6.8
0.1
315.1

Volume carried% of total
60.5%
20.3%
17.0%
2.2%
0.0%
100%

Traffic carriedBillion t-km
13.1
12.7
11.5
1.5
38.8

About half of the total volume carried is domestic traffic, while the other half is internationaltraffic in the form of bilateral and transit flows.

13

Most of the freight transit traffic crosses the western part of Austria (Brenner route and, to alesser extent, the Tauern route). Freight transit traffic to and from neighbouring countries in the Eastis less heavy, but it is growing very rapidly.
As a result, the Austrian government has to take policy measures to make rail and waterway
transport on the Danube more attractive, in order to prevent massive transfers to road transport, as
occurred in western Austria. These measures will be mainly aimed at:− improving rail and combined transport infrastructure;− ensuring fair competition between the various modes by defining real costs.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
As the problems caused by road traffic cannot be resolved by developing road infrastructure,
Austria’s transport policy is aimed at influencing traffic demand and promoting the mostenvironment-friendly modes. It is therefore firmly opposed to the idea of systematically responding
to traffic growth by increasing road capacity and building new infrastructure. The focus in
infrastructure policy is therefore on rail and combined transport. The information on investment
projects provided by Austria therefore mainly concerns the rail network.

Rail transport
Austria has carried out and is planning substantial investment programmes to increase thecapacity of rail and combined transport. The rail links included in Austria’s Treaty of Accession to
the European Union will thus be developed as long-distance lines in order to divert some goods traffic
from road to rail.
Austria’s priority projects therefore concern the main routes for rail and combined transport, as
defined in Annex 1 of Protocol No. 9 of Austria’s Act of Accession to the European Union:
−
−
−
−
−

the Brenner route;the Tauern route;the Phyrn-Schober pass route;the Danube route;the Pontebbana route.

These projects also include extensions to and offshoots from these routes to central European
countries, as well as a new high-speed route known as the “Süd-Ost-Spange”. This line will provide aconnection between Graz and Klagenfurt.
All these projects on Austrian territory are included in the EU Council’s position on a Decisionby the European Parliament and the Council on Community guidelines for the development of the
TEN.
This is important with regard to possible Community financial aid since the Council Regulation
on such aid will refer to that Decision and provide that Community aid may be granted only for
projects of common interest identified as such on the basis of the guidelines.
14

In 1995, Austria applied for Community financial aid for the main rail and combined transportroutes defined in Annex 1 of Protocol No. 9 of Austria’s Act of Accession to the European Union. It
has also been decided that Community financial aid would be requested in coming years for thesesame routes.
With regard to links with the CEECs, the Vienna Paper, which was drawn up in the Central
European Conference of Ministers of Transport -- to which Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, theSlovak Republic, Slovenia and Austria belong -- and which defines transport infrastructure projects inthese countries, gives the programme for Austria’s rail links with the Czech and Slovak Republics,
Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia. At the Central European Transport Conference held in Bled in theautumn of 1995, the Ministers of Transport decided that a joint list of priority projects should be
drawn up.
As regards the development of transport infrastructure, the Austrian Ministry of Transport is
preparing a master plan, Österreichischer Bundesverkehrswegeplan, which will be used to evaluate
projects and define priorities.
Type of work planned on rail links with Hungary
Line
Vienna-Hegyeshalom-Budapest
Wr. Neustadt-(Eisenstadt)-Sopron-Budapest

Type of work
In the medium term: increase in speed to
160 km/h
Additional combined and passenger
transport links. Sopron is a junction point
for combined transport.

Type of work planned on rail links with the Czech and Slovak Republics
Line
Linz-Summerau-Horni-Dvoriste(Ceske Budejovice-Prague)
Vienna-Gmünd-(Ceske-VelenicePrague)
Vienna-Retz-Satov-(Znojmo-Prague)
Vienna-Wolfstahl-(Bratislava)
Vienna-Parndorf-Kittsee-(Bratislava)

Type of work
In the short term, improvements to signallingsystemReduction in journey time between Vienna andPrague. Work on infrastructure projects.
Electrification of the Hollabrunn-Unterretzbachline completed
Regional line of which the extension may befinanced under a public/private-partnership scheme
Modernisation and electrification of the ParndorfKittsee line. Re-opening of the transborder line
between Kittsee and Petrzalka

Road transport
Road investment projects almost exclusively concern bypass roads around built-up areas,
particularly those located on roads serving Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Republics, owing to
the expected growth in road traffic (resulting from the opening of borders and political and economicchanges in these countries).
15

On the Vienna-Bratislava run, bypasses are also planned between Parndorf and Kittsee. Apartfrom the extension of the eastern motorway, no other motorways or fast roads should be built on thisroute owing to the commitment to promote rail transport.
The opening-up of the borders with the Czech and Slovak Republics and Hungary has
highlighted the issue of traffic through built-up areas and the need for bypasses.
By and large, investment is not aimed at enlarging the main network but at improving its quality.

Waterway transport
Considerable capacity exists at present on the Danube, amounting to about 90 per cent for thelocks.
A basic objective in Austrian transport policy is to include navigation on the Danube in
combined transport chains. Two measures in this respect are:
− The setting up by the government, at the end of 1993, of a company specialising in combinedtransport. Known as “Wasserkombi”, it carries about 10 000 containers a year, mainly forwestbound traffic. A back-up road transport system has been set up to guarantee continued
operations when the water level falls.
− Co-financing of the extension programmes for two river ports: Enns and Krems.

Question 3: Capacity problems
The problems mainly concern road transport and are extremely urgent as they will not be solved
by systematically increasing infrastructure capacity, and railway capacity is affected when the
additional traffic (in particular transborder freight) cannot be absorbed by the rail network. For thisreason, the following objectives have been defined:− In road transport•••

the promotion of fair competition between the various transport modes by making themmeet the real costs of their activity (including externalities);
the transfer of road traffic to rail;
the promotion of road vehicles complying with high environmental and safety standards,
as seen in the “green lorry” concept, which gives operators using vehicles built to thesestandards access to the transport market.

− In rail transport••

the modernisation of existing rail infrastructure and the implementation of major
infrastructure projects at European level;
the improvement of the competitive position of rail and combined transport by means ofpractical measures (tax incentives, transfer of checks to terminals, etc.).

16

Rail transport
Rail capacity problems seem likely to arise from the expected growth in east-west freight.
Traffic on the main corridor, which is used for transit through Austria, is already very heavy:− from Vienna to Linz, the line is saturated, with an average traffic of between 220 and
275 trains a day;− the Linz-Graz line is also saturated, with average traffic of between 80 and 130 trains a day;− the Salzburg-Klagenfurt line handles between 120 and 215 trains a day.
Traffic across the Alps is also increasing on a similar scale.

Road transport
A study on the road transport situation for 1990, 1993 and 2000 was conducted in connection
with the Austrian Infrastructure Master Plan. It summarises demand for total traffic and transit on
Austrian motorways, main roads and expressways. The results for motorways are described below.

Total traffic
In 1990, average daily traffic on Austrian motorways amounted to approximately 24 000
vehicles, of which 3 600 (or 15 per cent) were goods vehicles (delivery vehicles and lorries). The
heaviest traffic was recorded in the Linz and Vienna regions, particularly on the A23 (south-east trunkroad) with an average traffic of 120 000 vehicles a day, on the A2 (southern motorway) south of
Vienna (100 000 vehicles a day), on the A1 (western motorway) between Linz and Traun(56 000 vehicles a day) and on the A7 in the Linz region (75 000 vehicles a day). The highest
volumes of freight traffic, of 15 000 to 20 000 vehicles per working day, were recorded on theseroads.
The highest traffic volumes were recorded on the A23, with 122 453 vehicles a day, including
23 700 lorries. Traffic is less heavy in western Austria than in eastern Austria, but owing to the
topography (the Alps), even a relatively low volume of traffic has a substantial environmental impact.
In 1993 average daily traffic on the federal motorways was 24 500 vehicles, about 15 per cent of
which (or 3 750) were utility vehicles. This figure represents average increases of 2.2 per cent in total
traffic and 5 per cent in utility vehicle traffic over the period 1990-93. The heaviest traffic wasrecorded in the Vienna and Linz regions, with traffic of 100 000 vehicles a day on average on the A2(south of Vienna) and on the A23. The highest figure for road freight was reported on the A23, with
23 700 lorries per working day.

Transit traffic
In 1990, the highest volume of transit traffic was recorded in western Austria. The A13 -- theBrenner motorway -- ranked first with an average of 7 700 vehicles a day, or 60 per cent of total
motorway traffic. This motorway carried 3 150 lorries in transit per day. The Salzburg/Walserberg
route via the A10, the Enns valley and the A9 to Spielfeld follows.
17

In 1993, routes to the countries east of Austria accounted for the highest increase in road transit.
The heaviest flows, however, were still in western Austria.
Freight transport accounted for over 10 per cent of total transit traffic, with 400 vehicles a day on
average. Compared with 1990, an average increase of 3 per cent in total transit was reported in 1993,
while the average for freight transit traffic stagnated.

Road transport outcome
In 1990, total road traffic on Austrian motorways was 12.5 billion vehicle-km, with vehicles intransit (private and commercial vehicles combined) accounting for 6 per cent (770 million vehiclekm). The share of freight in this traffic was 15 per cent or 1.9 billion vehicle-km, with transit
accounting for 11 per cent, or about 210 million-km. Road freight in transit therefore represented
only 1.7 per cent of the total traffic recorded in 1990 on the Austrian motorway network.
In 1993, a total of about 15 billion vehicle-km was recorded on the country’s motorway network,
including transit traffic of 915 million vehicle-km. These figures represent growth in total road trafficof 18.5 per cent and 20 per cent in total transit over the period 1990-93. Freight accounted for about
15 per cent of total traffic with 2.3 billion vehicle-km, of which 11 per cent in transit (or 244 million
vehicle-km).
To sum up, freight traffic on motorways rose by 22 per cent and freight transit by 17 per cent.
This relatively low growth in freight transit traffic is due to the fall in traffic from and to the former
Yugoslavia.

Question 4: Measures
As there has been no change since 1991-92 with regard to the action planned by the Austrianauthorities, the main objectives in Austrian transport policy still apply:− avoid increases in traffic particularly when other solutions exist, such as identifying theshortest routes by means of intelligent town planning, the use of data transmission networks
to avoid empty return trips, and deterring vehicle traffic in town centres by charging highparking rates;− give priority to environment-friendly modes such as electrified rail, inland waterways andcombined transport;− use the latest technological developments (Austria will continue to draw up environmental
regulations setting strict limits on the noise and emissions from transport vehicles);− gradually internalise the external costs of transport in order to give appropriate pricing signals
for the efficient and sustainable functioning of the transport market, beginning with roadtransport since numerous studies indicate that this mode imposes the highest external costs tosociety.

18

DESCRIPTION OF FIVE RAILWAY DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

Tauern route
This line serves Munich, Salzburg, Bischofshofen, Villach, and Rosenbach towards Ljubljana,
via Villach and Tarvisio. The Salzburg-Bischofshofen segment also forms part of the Pyhrn-Schoberroute. The Villach-Tarvisio segment is also part of the Pontebbana route and comes under theinvestment programme for that route.
Purpose of work: construction of a second track, and an increase in authorised speed andcapacity on this line. The following operations are planned:− upgrading of the section between Salzburg and Schwarzach St. Veit;− doubling of the track between Schwarzach St. Veit and Spittal;− upgrading of the Spittal-Villach-Rosenbach section.
Planning/design phase: completion in 2007.
Construction: completion in 2010.

Cost

MECU

Before1995
151 561

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995-99

32 50047 76648 86837 77239 661

206 567After
2000
429 267

Pyhrn-Schober route
This line serves Nuremberg, Passau, Wels, Traun, Selzthal, Graz, Spielfeld/Strass and Mariborn,
and also Prague, Summerau, Linz, Traun or Munich, Salzburg, Bischofshofen and Selzthal. The
Nuremberg-Passau-Wels section also forms part of the Danube route and comes under the investment
programme for that route. The Munich-Salzburg-Bischofshofen section also forms part of the Tauernroute.
Purpose of work: Doubling of part of the line in order to increase its capacity. The following
operations are planned:− doubling of the track between Spiefeld/Strass and Graz;− upgrading of the Graz-Bruck/Mur section;19

− possible construction of tunnels for the Knoten-Obersteiermark section (Hochalm Tunnel andTraidersberg Tunnel);− introduction of the second track on the Schoberpass section;− Selzthal loop line;− upgrading and partial doubling of the Pyhrn line;− upgrading of the Enns valley line;− upgrading of the Wels-Passau line;− upgrading of the Salzburg-Bischofshofen line.
Planning/design phase: completion in 2007.
Construction: completion in 2010.

Cost

MECU

Before1995
253 547

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995-99

27 54226 75526 37058 23249 576

188 476

After
2000
1 252 563

Danube route
This route comprises the following lines:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

Munich-Salzburg-Wels-Linz-Vienna-Parndorf-Hegyeshalom-Budapest;
Munich-Simbach-Wels;
Nuremberg-Passau-Wels;
Vienna-Marchegg-Bratislava;
Vienna-Vienna Airport-Wolfsthal-Kittssee-Bratislava;
Vienna-Ebenfurth-Sopron;
Parndorf-Kittsee-Bratislava.

The Vienna-Ebenfurth segment is also part of the Pontebbana route and comes under theinvestment programme for that route. The Passau-Wels section also forms part of the PyhrnSchoberpass route.
Purpose of work: Upgrading of the Vienna-Salzburg line (with quadrupling of the track on the
Vienna-Wels segment), the Vienna-Bratislava and Vienna-Sopron lines. The following operations
are planned:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

upgrading of the Vienna-Hegyeshalom line;
construction of a new track on the Parndorf-Kittsee-Bratislava line;
upgrading of the Vienna-Vienna Airport-Kittsee line;
upgrading of the Vienna-Sopron line;
construction of a new railway station in Vienna;
work on the Lainzer tunnel;
work on the Laaerberg tunnel;
work on the Inzersdorf terminal;
20

−
−
−
−
−

construction of a high-quality Vienna-St. Pölten line;
construction of a loop line around St. Pölten for goods trains;quadrupling of the track on the St. Pölten-Wels section;
upgrading of the Passau-Wels and Wels-Attnang Puchheim sections;construction of a wider section on the Attnang-Puchheim-Salzburg line.

Planning/design phase: completion in 2005.
Construction: completion in 2010.

Cost
Before1995
MECU 650 931

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995-99295 624

342 901

350 351362 468

366 356

1 717 699

After
2000
3 732 487

Pontebbana route
This line serves Prague, Brno, Bernhardsthal, Vienna, Semmering, Klagenfurt, Villach andTarvisio as well as Prague, Gmund and Vienna.
Purpose of work: Modernisation and increase in the capacity of the line; tunnel construction.
The following operations are planned:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

upgrading of the Bernhardsthal-Vienna section;
upgrading of the Vienna-Ebenfurth-Wiener Neustadt sections;upgrading of the Wiener Neustadt-Gloggnitz section;
work on the Semmering tunnel (Gloggnitz-Mürzzuschlag);construction of the Galgenberg tunnel for the Knoten Obersteiermark section;
work on the Furnitz transhipment centre;
doubling of the track between St. Veit and Klagenfurt;
doubling of the track between Arnoldstein and Thorl/Maglern.

Planning/design phase: completion in 2008.
Construction: completion in 2010.

Cost

MECU

Before1995
149 655

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995-99

73 40175 72479 66354 21254 342

337 341

21

After
2000
588 454

The Graz-Klagenfurt line (Koralmbahn)
The Koralmbahn would be a new line between Graz and Klagenfurt and form part of the
Pontebbana route.
Purpose of work: The following operations are planned:
−
−
−
−
−

improvements of Graz junction;
construction of the new Graz-Klagenfurt line and Koralm tunnel;
improvements of Klagenfurt junction;
construction of a loop line around Graz for goods trains;connection with Graz airport.

Planning/design phase: under optimal circumstances completion around 2000.
Construction: under optimal circumstances completion around 2012.

Cost

MECU

Before
1995
-

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1995-99

1 846

1 846

1 846

1 846

1 846

9 231

22

After
2000
1 603 827

BELGIUM
Area: 30 500 km²
Population: 10 300 000

In 1988-89, institutional reforms transferred responsibility for the development and managementof motorways, highways, waterways and ports to the regions (Brussels Capital Area, Flemish Area
and Walloon Area). However, authority for overall regulations in this area has largely remained in
the hands of the State, for example under of the national railway company (Société Nationale desChemins de Fer Belges - SNCB).
The reform has caused some delays in the publication of traffic statistics. In certain instances,data may be available for one region but not for another, and vice versa.

Question 1: Future trends in freight and passenger traffic
Current traffic and recent trends
Road traffic
Traffic on motorways and numbered highways (in general, the former national highway system)
keeps increasing, even during periods of economic recession (Appendixes 1 and 2). As of
1 August 1995, the number of motor vehicles per thousand population (exclusive of farm and special
vehicles) in Belgium was 466, of which 421 were cars. From 1985 to 1994, motorway traffic bypassenger cars and commercial vehicles increased by 68.85 per cent, while traffic on other numbered
highways rose by only 37.83 per cent.
In 1993, heavy-vehicle traffic (lorries and tractor trailers) on motorways was estimated toaccount for 15.3 per cent of the total, up from 14.75 per cent in 1990 and 14.69 per cent in 1985. On
the former national highways, it accounted for 10.03 per cent of total traffic in 1990 and
12.19 per cent in 1985.
This means that the number of heavy vehicles on motorways rose faster than that of lightvehicles (cars, motorcycles and vans), with some switching of heavy-vehicle traffic from the former
national highways to motorways (Appendixes 3 and 4).

23

Total freight transported by road in 1985 was divided as follows:− 77 per cent for domestic transport;− 10 per cent for imports;− 10 per cent for exports;− 3 per cent in transit.
In 1991, there was little change, including in the even balance between import and export traffic:− 70 per cent for domestic transport;− 13 per cent for imports;− 13 per cent for exports;− 4 per cent in transit.

Rail traffic
Contrary to earlier forecasts, passenger and freight rail traffic has not increased in recent years.
This is due in part to the fact that the Belgian national railways did not have the budget required tomodernise its infrastructure and rolling stock, or to improve its service.
The table below provides figures for passenger traffic (domestic and international).

SNCB passenger traffic (domestic and international), 1990-94

Passengers (millions)
Passenger-km (millions)

1990
142.4
6 539

1991
145.5
6 769

1992
145.0
6 798

1993
145.3
6 694

1994
142.6
6 638

Source: SNCB.

With regard to freight traffic, there has been continued growth to and from ports (principally
Antwerp and Zeebrugge) and:− traditional regions of heavy-industry (Liege and Charleroi);− neighbouring countries: France, Germany, Luxembourg (steel mills), the Netherlands, etc.;− certain long-distance destinations such as Italy, Austria, etc. (Appendix 5).
Overall trends in freight traffic since 1991-92 have not favoured rail transport, which declined byabout 10 per cent in 1993 from its level of the preceding two years. Although it rose sharply in 1994,
it did not return to its 1992 level.
In 1995, the volume of rail traffic fluctuated widely, as did the economy of Belgium and ofwestern Europe in general. After rising during the first half of the year (due to restocking bywholesalers and processing industries), rail traffic declined to a level below that of 1994 in the second
half. Labour unrest in France and Belgium in November and December 1995 also helped bring down
the overall figure for the year.

24Figure 1. Change in volume of freight transported from 1985 to 1991
%

%

50

50

48
1985

45

45

42

1991

40

40

35

35
31
29

30
25

25

23
20

20

30

20

15

15

10

10
4

5
0

Domestic traffic

5

3

Through traffic

Imports

Exports0

Source: ECMT.

Waterway traffic
Freight traffic fell by 10.4 per cent in volume and by 6.7 per cent in tonne-kilometres over the
1990-92 period. Because data for subsequent years is not available, it is not possible to ascertain
whether this decline continued. The total volume of freight shipped by waterway in 1985 was divided
as follows:−−−−

28 per cent for domestic traffic;
28 per cent for imports;
20 per cent for exports;
24 per cent in transit.

In 1991, traffic volume had changed considerably:− 45 per cent for domestic traffic;− 18 per cent for imports;− 31 per cent for exports;− 6 per cent in transit.

25

Maritime traffic
Change in volume of freight loaded and unloaded at Belgian ports, 1970-93
Thousand tonnes
Antwerp, left bank
LoadedUnloaded
Ghent + Zelzate
LoadedUnloaded
Zeebrugge+
BrugesLoadedUnloaded
OthersLoadedUnloaded
Total
LoadedUnloaded

1970

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

23 61557 10734 18845 42837 70747 44338 86559 48837 13158 50939 53759 76741 16654 928

4 521
5 670

3 376
15 1056 989
20 0435 212
19 631

4 851
20 9884 370
18 5444 400
17 803

845
7 382

3 398
11 720

5 285
8 089

8 270
20 2908 165
20 3019 193
22 060

9 666
18 984

230
707

1 862
2 863

2 873
3 676

2 762
4 642

2 384
4 234

2 802
4 907

2 791
4 966

29 27271 07342 82675 11752 854 55 109
79 251 104 051

52 531104 032

55 902105 279

58 02396 681

As in many other countries, there was a sharp increase in containers shipped through Belgian
ports from 1980 to 1993, with unloading rising by 188 per cent and loading by 259 per cent.
Ground freight transport
Figure 2. Changes in freight transport volume by modes, 1985-91
Million tonnes

450
400

450
Road transport
Waterway shipping
Rail transport

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

1985

1987

1989

Source: ECMT.

26

1990

1991

0

Data for the years 1985-91 clearly show the continued increase in road transport of freight andthe corresponding stagnation of other transport modes. The table below provides some more recent
statistical data that confirm this trend.

Domestic and international freight transport
Million tonnes

Road transport
Rail transport
Internal waterways
Million tonne-km
Road transport
Rail transport
Internal waterways

1990
329.5
67.1
99.9
1990
32 049
8 354
5 448

1991
355.2
64.5
94.9
1991
34 105
8 153
5 227

1992
339.7
62.3
89.5
1992
32 871
8 074
5 083

1993
343.9
57.7
n.a.
1993
35 964
7 568
n.a.

1994
n.a.
63.4
n.a.
1994
n.a.
8 084
n.a.

Source: INS and SNCB.

Traffic forecasts
The forecasts described below are derived mainly from the January 1992 “Mobilis” report on the
movement of passengers and freight commissioned by the joint Belgian motor vehicle industry
association FEBIAC (Fédération Belge de l’Industrie de l’Automobile et du Cycle). The document
summarises several studies of future traffic projections.
In February 1996, the latest statistical data were not available, except for passenger railtransport. Recent data referred to in this report come from a new study by the SNCB national
railways, updating its earlier “Star 21” project using revised assumptions.

Passenger traffic
A 1991 study by H. Meersman and E. Van de Voorde contains interesting computations andforecasts. The study shows that:− passenger transport is significantly affected by the level of national income and the cost oftransport;− overall passenger traffic tends to increase.
The authors also computed price and income elasticity:− price elasticity (as measured by changes in transport relative to changes in fuel prices) is in arange of -0.2 to -0.3;− income elasticity (changes in the demand for transport in relation to changes in income) is
also reported to have fallen, from 0.82 to 0.54. Economic development is closely related to
the growth of travel, even though the correlation between the two diminishes over time.
27For the choice of modes, the authors computed cross-price elasticity to show that a relative priceincrease (the cost of using a car vs. public transport) of 10 per cent caused a reduction of 4 to
6 per cent in the share of total transport accounted for by automobiles.
They also forecast passenger transport (for all modes combined), using four different sets ofassumptions.
Under the first set of assumptions, all determinants, with the exception of the trend itself, arebased on their value at the end of the period under consideration. This extreme case also provides ameasure of the propensity for mobility to increase. Under this set of assumptions, travel would
increase by 28 per cent from 1987 to 2000.
Under the second set of assumptions, annual percentage changes in determinants (i.e. population,
per capita income, cost of car travel and public transport fares) are expected to be equal to the average
percentage variation during the period under consideration, thereby offsetting the impact of cyclicalfluctuations. Highs and lows are disregarded. Under this set of assumptions, travel would increaseby 35 per cent.
Under the third set of assumptions, future projections are based on trends observed during thelast year of the period under consideration. Travel would increase by 43 per cent.
Under the fourth set of assumptions, based on the European Union’s Hermes economic model,
the average percentage change expected for the 1990-94 period is extrapolated for the years up to
2000. From 1987 to 2000, travel would increase by 45 per cent.
Depending on the set of assumptions used, travel is expected to rise by between 28 and 45 percent during the period 1987 to 2000.
The National Construction Confederation (Confédération nationale de la construction) has also
issued a series of forecasts of mobility, based on the Mobibel econometric model and two scenarios.
Under the first, percentage changes by economic determinants over the 1986-89 period are applied to
the years 1990-2005. The second set uses the 1970-79 period as a base, instead of 1986-89. Under
these sets of assumptions, mobility would evolve as indicated in the following table.

Passenger transport forecast under the Mobibel modelin passenger-km
Share of total
Passenger travel
Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Mode
Car
Public transport
Total
Car
Public transport
Total

Increase
1990-2005+ 53 %- 24 %+ 44 %+ 44 %- 18 %+ 36 %

Source: Confédération nationale de la construction.

28

1990

2005

88 %
12 %

94 %
6%

88 %
12 %

93 %
7%

These forecasts also point to a sharp increase in travel. Depending on the assumptions used andwithout any changes in current policies, the overall mobility of persons is projected to rise by between
36 and 44 per cent from 1990 to 2005, or at an annual rate of 2.4 to 2.9 per cent. In terms of modes
used, the share of automobile travel is expected to rise to 94 per cent in 2005, from 88 per cent in
1990.
The SNCB national railway company had also forecast future trends, with its STAR 21 project,assuming that transport policy would remain unchanged.
Expected passenger travel as projected by STAR 21
in passenger-km and percentage

SNCB
Regional public transport
Urban pubic transport
Intercity buses
Cars
Special buses
Total

1987
6 271
6.4%
4 427
4.5%
1 019
1.0%
4 322
4.4%
78 958
80.6%
2 903
2.9%
97 900
100%

2000
7 103
5.9%
4 575
3.8%
1 084
0.9%
5 418
4.5%
98 967
82.2%
3 130
2.6%
120 397
100%

2020
7 384
5.6%
4 351
3.3%
1 055
0.8%
6 066
4.6%
109 839 83.3%
3 165
2.4%
131 859
100%

Source: SNCB, STAR 21, 1990.

From 1987 to 2020, total passenger travel is expected to rise by 35 per cent, at twice the rate ofrail travel. Travel by bus and automobile are expected to increase by 40 per cent and 39 per cent,respectively.
At the end of 1995, the SNCB revised its passenger traffic forecasts, taking into account the factthat the railway company had started a project of structural changes with the aim of balancing its
budget no later than 2005.
Assumptions used to forecast traffic include a significant increase in government financing of
the capital investment needed to develop a new infrastructure for the TGV, as well as for domestic
requirements.
In general, traffic assumptions are based on the notion that there are new opportunities for railtransport, since the rapid and continued increase in road and air transport have made the benefits oftrain travel, in terms of environmental protection and technology, ever more evident. In this regard,
the traffic assumptions take as a given that new initiatives will be necessary both at national and at
Community level to enable the railroads to make use of their technical and environmental advantages.
One of the key issues has become the social cost of transport.
For the market shares of various transport modes, it is estimated that railways will experiencesignificant gains in international traffic. However, the overall market shares of the various modes ofoverland transport are not expected to change significantly, given the volume of short-distance travel
and the role played by private cars.
The following table shows the new projections for passenger traffic based on those assumptions.

29New forecast of rail passenger traffic according to the SNCB
Million passenger-km

1995
1996
l997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Domestic

Regular

TGV

5 830
5 862
5 991
5 920
5 949
5 978
6 014
6 056
6 104
6 158
6 220

812
731
663
454
407
359
363
327
291
291
296

79
388
641
1 059
1 333
1 465
1 561
1 594
1 627
1 660
1 791

International
Total
Total domestic +international international traffic
891
6 721
1 119
6 981
1 304
7 295
1 513
7 433
1 740
7 689
1 824
7 802
1 924
7 938
1 921
7 977
1 918
8 022
1 953
8 111
2 087
8 307

Source: SNCB, 1995.

The table below summarises the principal forecasts referred to above .
Summary of passenger transportation forecasts
SourceMode

PeriodVan De Voorde & Meersman
MobibelSTAR 21SNCB

All modes
All modes
All modes
Rail

1987-2000
1990-2000
1987-2020
1995-2005

Expected growth in theevent of no policy changes+28 % to 45 %+36 % to +44 %+35 %+23.5 %

Freight transport
According to Meersman and Van de Voorde, three types of factors determine the breakdown offreight transportation by mode: the nature of the forwarder, the shipment and the supply of transport.
For the first type, the kind of goods shipped is the chief determinant. Railways and domestic
waterway transportation play a large role in the transportation of freight with a relatively low value
per unit of weight. For other goods, road transport is dominant. Additional factors include volume ofgoods, time considerations, frequency of shipments, etc.
In terms of shipment, distance is the chief consideration. Distance per tonne is highest in railtransport, at 122 km, as compared with 90 km per tonne for road transport. The lower average
distance for road transport is due to the fact that much of the latter consists of loading and deliveries,
or else shuttle traffic.
Factors related to the supply of transport are the rates charged by various modes of transport,
their dependability, and the risk of damage or loss.
30

The authors observe that the demand for freight transport is directly related to the level of
economic activity and has little to do with cost. Economic activity, as measured by the gross value
added to the cost of factors for the categories of activity generating freight transport, has anunquestionable impact on the overall transport of freight. The nature of the demand for transport isclearly indicated by the fact that its elasticity varies between 0.85 and 1.02.
From a statistical viewpoint, the variable used to establish the effect of cost on the demand for
freight transport (the price of diesel fuel) does not appear of special significance. The authors
consider this a further confirmation of the derivative nature of the demand for transport, in the sensethat once a product is manufactured, it has to be delivered and therefore transported.
Lastly, demand for freight transport also seems to changing. With respect to the breakdown
between modes, the survey shows that:− A 10 per cent rise in relative rates for domestic waterway and road transport causes a
5 per cent decline in their share of total transport.
− The share of domestic waterway transport is not materially affected by changes in railtransport rates.
− Economic activity has a positive impact on the share of domestic waterway and rail transport,
as the volume of freight shipped increases during periods of economic growth and the averagevolume of shipments also rises; rail and domestic waterway transport has an advantage inthis respect over road transport, owing to the higher capacity per unit of transport of those twomodes.
− There has been a gradual shift away from rail and waterway transport and towards roadtransport; this shift would disappear if the economy grew at an annual rate of at least 3.5 to
3.8 per cent.
Van de Voorde and Meersman have also forecast total freight transport (all modes combined).
Under the assumptions used, growth for the period 1987-2000 is expected to range between 5 and71 per cent for total road transport of freight (respectively 5 per cent, 22 per cent, 71 per cent and41 per cent for the four sets of assumptions referred to earlier in connection with passenger travel).
Depending on the assumptions used, the Mobibel study projects increases in freight transport of
49 to 124 per cent from 1990 to 2005, almost exclusively in road transport.
Freight transport as projected by the model
Freight mobility
Scenario 1
Domestic waterways
Railways
Road
Total
Scenario 2
Domestic waterways
Railways
Road
Total

Growth1990-2005

1990 share2005 share

+69 %
+36 %
+155 %+124 %

13 %
17 %
70 %
100 %

10 %
10 %
80 %
100 %

+12 %
-34 %
+75 %
+49 %

13 %
17 %
70 %
100 %

10 %
8%
82 %
100 %

Source: Confédération nationale de la Construction.

31

Road transport’s share of freight shipments is expected to rise to between 80 and 82 per cent in2005, from 70 per cent in 1990. Rail traffic is expected to increase by 36 per cent in absolute terms.
The SNCB, in its 1990 STAR 21 project, also projected the volume of freight transported by rail .

Projected freight transport by rail according to STAR 21
Million tonne-km

Domestic
International

1988
30.7
30.2

2010
24.5
45 to 63.2

Source: SNCB, STAR 21, 1990.

The composite table below summarises the projections for freight transport .
Summary of freight transport forecasts
Expected growth in theevent of no policy changes
1987-2000+5 % to +71 %1990-2005+49 % to +124 %1987-2010+14 % to +44 %Mode
Van de Voorde & Meersman
MobibelSTAR 21

PeriodAll modes
All modes
Railways

Question 2: Current state of infrastructure and capital projects

Roads and motorways
On 1 January 1995, the Belgian road network consisted of some 1 670 km of motorways,
120 700 km of former national roads now administered by the regions (see above), along with about
129 000 km of municipal and provincial roads. It is among the densest networks in the world.
Some motorway links remain to be built on certain routes, in particular a few kilometres to link
the A18-E40 motorway to the French network near Dunkirk, a section of the A8 motorway between
Brussels and Lille and the connection of the A26-E25 motorway to the existing system in the Liege
urban area. Those sections are currently under construction or about to be started.
In the Flemish area, there is a plan to build a second motorway linking Antwerp to Ghent,
Bruges and Dunkirk with a parallel section to Belgium’s border with the Netherlands, running northof Bruges. The new motorway involves the transformation of the RN49, which currently has double
two-way traffic lanes, and the building of a new motorway section near Bruges. A connection to the
Zeebrugge seaport is also planned, as well as improved connections to the city and port of Ghent andthe completion of a second motorway link to Brussels by transforming the RN177 (currently withdouble or triple two-way traffic lanes) into a real motorway.
32

Railways
Many factors affect the capacity of the rail network, depending on the line in question: the natureof traffic (percentage of passenger and freight trains), the line’s profile, bypasses and the running timeof various trains. At this time, all major SNCB lines have double tracks, with triple or quadruple
tracks on certain sections.
The SNCB’s ten-year plan (1996-2005), which was approved by the government, calls not only
for an overall increase in productivity (see above) but also the replacement and upgrading of theequipment and capital projects, including:−the integration of Belgium into the high-speed train network by constructing 189 km of newlines and by increasing capacity and top speed on 114 km of existing tracks;−

an increase in the capacity of several line sections in the Brussels area;−

higher cruising speed for trains on certain lines;−

an upgrading of freight-transport equipment on major lines by:•gradually adapting lines, bridges and tunnels to allow trains to run at speeds of
120 km/h pulling cars carrying 22.5 tonnes per axle on lines linking seaports (Antwerp,
Ghent and Zeebrugge) with major industrial areas (Liege and Charleroi) and bordercrossings;•
building one or two additional lines between Ghent, Bruges and Zeebrugge;•
creating a second access line to the port of Antwerp;−

modernising terminal facilities used for freight transport, by:•developing the railway infrastructure in ports;•
expanding terminals used for combined traffic;•
creating multipurpose platforms.

Question 3: Capacity problems

Roads and motorways
Traffic tie-up problems on motorways occur at rush hour near Brussels, as well as in Antwerp,
where traffic volume is by far the highest (Appendixes 3 and 4).

Railways
The most sensitive points and heavily travelled sections appear clearly on a map of the railways(Appendix 5). The problem is most acute for freight trains at the port of Antwerp.

33

Question 4: Measures

Roads and motorways
In order to reduce traffic problems on motorways around Brussels, surveys are being conductedwith a view to improving rail connections with the suburbs.
Furthermore, there are plans to widen the northern section of the ring road (bypass) around
Brussels from a double three-lane to a double four-lane motorway, possibly using the emergency lane
in sections, as was done with success some years ago on the A3-E40 motorway between Brussels andLouvain in the direction of the capital.

Railways
The SNCB has been implementing a series of measures aimed at modernising its equipment andthe operation of railways, so as to upgrade services, make the system profitable and increase
productivity.
These measures seek to speed up freight transport in order to improve flow and integrate it into
overall traffic. In order to augment the capacity of lines, the SNCB will gradually separate freighttraffic from passenger traffic on various routes.
For passengers, measures under consideration concern services and include:− raising train cruising speeds on long distances (high-speed trains);− running trains at shorter intervals over short stretches;− improving passenger facilities by renovating stations (ten-year plan);− developing interconnections among transport modes through proven measures such as thebuilding of car parks;− developing co-ordination with urban transport systems;− using promotional fares for short trips;− improving rail connections to the Brussels National airport.

34

Appendix 1: Changes in traffic intensity, 1975-1990

35

Appendix 2: Changes in traffic, 1975-1994

36

Appendix 3: Schematic diagram of traffic patterns on motorways in 1994

37

Appendix 4: Schematic diagram of traffic patterns around Brussels

38

Appendix 5: Geographic pattern of passenger and freight rail traffic in 1994

39

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Total area: 51 129 km²
Population: 4 300 000

The war in the former Yugoslavia has caused considerable damage to the country’s economic
and industrial fabric as well as to its transport infrastructure. The conflict has also had a significant
impact on data collecting and processing. The most recent statistical data available are for 1990 and,for certain indicators, 1991.
In 1990, the transport and communications sector represented 6.1 per cent of the nation’s GDP,
down from 7.7 per cent in 1984, or a decline of 26 per cent; industrial output only dropped by
6 per cent over the same period. The transport and communications sector was clearly very hurt by
the war years.
Figure 1. Share of gross domestic transport income by mode in 1990

Other
3%
Rail
27%

Urban
transport
22%

Air
1%

Road
47%

Source: ECMT.

41

Question 1: Future trends in goods and passenger traffic
Given the extent and number of difficulties involved in the country’s reconstruction andeconomic recovery, it is not easy to prepare any kind of timetable. Furthermore, much of the
population has been displaced or exiled and little is known as to when and how people may return.
For these reasons, it is impossible to forecast future traffic trends.

Passenger traffic
Statistical data on passenger traffic are based on the entire rail network and services provided byregistered road transport companies. In the case of urban and suburban transport in certain cities, thefigures do not distinguish among modes of transport, i.e. bus, streetcar or trolley.
No statistical data are available on individual means of transport (automobile, motorcycle,
bicycle).
Road passenger traffic
The information available refers exclusively to mass-transport.

Mass transport by road, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Passengers(thousands)
68 91271 54873 18850 99071 66270 85466 16549 564Passenger-kilometres(millions)
3 083
3 104
3 156
2 717
3 137
3 070
2 737
1 479

The share of total passenger traffic accounted for by road transport has increased gradually from78.4 per cent in 1984 to 83.4 per cent in 1990 and 86.8 per cent in 1991.
Even though no forecast of future traffic is available, the Bosnian authorities are expecting asteep increase in road traffic in coming years, for three reasons:− social and economic changes;− the new geopolitical situation in the region;− the time required to restore the rail network as compared to repairing roads.

42

Rail passenger traffic

Rail passenger traffic, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Passengers(thousands)
18 99418 96418 82817 00015 40414 287
13 171
7 527

Passenger-kilometres(millions)
1 654
1 644
1 646
1 568
1 459
1 433
1 382
637

Rail transport’s share of total passenger traffic has declined gradually since 1984 (by21.6 per cent) to reach 13.2 per cent just before the start of hostilities. Political developments
hastened the decline. Since the end of the war, there are plans to restore and relaunch this mode, but
it is not possible to forecast a timetable or to know whether passenger volume will revert to its
pre-war level. In the long run, this form of transport is expected to decline further.
Urban and suburban mass transport

Mass transport (streetcar, bus and trolley) in urban areas, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Passengers(thousands)
495 545503 333
514 192
523 872504 740
515 464496 243458 606

Number of locations
46
51
51
51
45
44
44
40

It is difficult to give an opinion on this type of traffic, as the number of cities and towns taken
into consideration for statistical purposes has changed several times over the period. Furthermore, thelack of data on the population’s use and ownership of motor vehicles makes it impossible to draw
conclusions as to the intensity of urban and suburban traffic and the breakdown between modes.

43

Air passenger traffic
For the period under review, domestic air passenger traffic was essentially non-existent. Threeairports (Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Mostar) handle international air traffic and flights to and fromother republics of the former Yugoslavia. At the present time, the Banja Luka airport is notoperational. In 1991, 700 000 passengers travelled through the Mostar and Sarajevo facilities, ofwhich 550 000 for Sarajevo alone. Air traffic is expected to increase by 8 per cent a year between theend of 1996 and 2005.

Freight traffic
The trends are the same for the transport of goods as for that of passengers. The two principal
modes for shipping freight in Bosnia are rail and road transport. Other forms of transport play aninsignificant role.
Road freight traffic
Data on road traffic include the flow of goods shipped by firms on their own behalf and for third
parties.

Road freight traffic volume, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Tonnes(thousands)
35 51936 40440 99334 29630 42927 60319 427
13 717

Tonne-kilometres(millions)
4 335
4 288
4 486
4 203
3 926
3 955
3 066
2 205

In 1991, public road transport firms accounted for a much smaller share of total traffic than forpassenger transport:− 44.2 per cent of volume transported by all modes;− 47.6 per cent of total tonne-kilometres of combined modes.
In addition, their share of combined freight traffic has declined from 52.7 per cent in volume
terms in 1984, although their share of tonne-kilometres has remained unchanged since 1984 at
47 per cent.

44Rail freight traffic
The pre-war economic and industrial structure of Bosnia-Herzegovina largely favoured the flowof goods by rail owing to the heavy industry and mines of this region of the former Yugoslavia. It istherefore not surprising that rail transport accounted for 52.4 per cent of total volume as well as
tonne-kilometres in 1991. Its share of total freight transport is particularly noteworthy in view of thefact that the Bosnian railway network is not very extensive.
However, according to the Bosnian authorities, the situation is not expected to last. Instead, theshare of rail transport is likely to decline in coming years, owing to changes in the country’s industrial
structure.

Rail freight traffic volume, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Metric tonnes(thousands)
31 82531 82832 46430 23029 39729 63026 25317 307

Tonne-kilometres(millions)
4 889
5 037
5 235
4 816
4 891
4 728
4 005
2 424

River freight traffic
River freight traffic, 1984-91

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Domestic shipping(thousand tonnes)
2 128
1 759
1 528
2 927
2 366
2 903
736
310

Exports and imports(thousand tonnes)
337
179
303
198
134
242
19
-

The traffic figures refer to shipments passing through the ports of Brcko and Bosanski, on the
Sava river, the country’s only navigable waterway. This border river is used for trade withneighbouring countries. Consequently, as the political situation in the former Yugoslavia deteriorated
in the 1990s, river traffic was quickly and strongly affected. Between 1989 and 1990, the volume ofdomestic shipments fell by three-fourths. In 1991, freight imports and exports had ceased
completely.
45

Question 2: Current state of the infrastructure and capital projects
In 1991, the transport infrastructure of Bosnia and Herzegovina included:−−−−

1 040 km of railways;
21 677 km of roads;
two river ports;
five airports, of which only three were used for civil aviation.

Road infrastructure
Domestic road network, 1984-91
Kilometres

Main
Regional
Local

1984
3 666
3 748
13 109

1986
3 724
3 756
13 196

1988
3 722
3 682
13 439

1990
3 722
3 683
13 763

1991
3 722
4 104
13 851

Domestic road network surface, 1984-91
Kilometres

Total roadsof which:- concrete, asphalt- gravel- dirt1984
20 5231986
20 6761988
20 8431990
21 1681991
21 677

9 317
8 692
2 514

10 1088 536
2 032

10 7288 549
1 566

11 4368 146
1 568

11 7518 233
1 693

Of the 21 677 km of roads in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 54.2 per cent have a concrete, asphalt orsimilar surface. The density of the road network is 0.42 km per km² and 4.96 km per
1 000 population.
In the period 1984-91, the road network grew by 5.6 per cent, and that of surfaced roads by
26.1 per cent. There are currently no motorways in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A major project is thebuilding of a motorway between Capljina and Samac, which would become part of the TEN.

Rail infrastructure
The rail network of Bosnia and Herzegovina extends over 1 032 km, of which 94 km of double
tracks. Three-fourths of the network (777 km) are electrified with alternating current at 25 kV/50Hz,
88 per cent consists of tracks with a D4 load capacity (225 kN/axle, 80 kN/m), and the balance of
12 per cent consists of tracks with a load capacity of between B2 and D3, or 180 to 225 kN/axle and64 to 72 kN/m.

46

Trains may travel at a maximum speed ranging from 60 to 120 km/h, depending on the line
segment. The characteristics of the rail network reflect the country’s geography, with its hills andmountains.
The rail infrastructure has been severely affected by the war. It suffered heavy damage in someparts and in others lines were made impracticable. Priority has therefore been placed on restoring thedamaged sections and repairing structural work along the most important lines.
In a second phase, reconstruction will focus on modernising the railways (lines, train speeds,
electrification, signalling system, safety equipment, telecommunications systems, etc.).
On the main Vrpolje-Sarajevo-Mostar-Ploce line (important for Europe), the Bosnian
government is considering laying a second track on the remaining single-track sections between
Vrpolje and Sarajevo, as well as improving the line in order to enable trains to travel at higher speeds.
Long-range plans also call for rebuilding tracks to the south of Sarajevo (known as the “Bradina
Ramp”). However, in light of events in the region, it now seems necessary to revise earlier plans.
Air traffic infrastructure
Bosnia and Herzegovina have five airports in Sarajevo, Mostar, Banja Luka, Tuzla and Bihac.
The last two are military airports. All were heavily damaged during the war. Repair work isscheduled to start in 1997 at Sarajevo and Banja Luka so that they will be ready to handle passenger
traffic by the summer of 1997. Work is expected to be completed by the end of 1998, with chiefly
emergency repairs done in 1997.
The Mostar airport was partly repaired by the international peacekeeping forces stationed in
Bosnia and Herzegovina.
River traffic infrastructure
Rehabilitation work is currently in the planning stages for the ports of Brcko and Bosanski
Samac.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Owing to the war and the destruction it caused, the transport infrastructure of Bosnia andHerzegovina faces a number of capacity problems.

Road transport
Capacity problems are primarily a result of damage to the basic infrastructure. A total of
51 bridges and several tunnels were destroyed during the war. Road surfaces were heavily damaged.

Rail transport
The situation is even more serious in the rail network, as 20 bridges were destroyed during thefighting, three of which spanned the Sava river and two the Neretva.
47

Links with neighbouring countries were cut off and lines were destroyed in several places.
Electrical, signalling, safety and telecommunications facilities have to be rebuilt. Most buildings
were damaged or destroyed. Rolling stock located in combat zones was significantly damaged orcompletely destroyed.
Other capacity problems are not due to the war but to the nature of the Bosnian railway system.
In mountain areas, for instance, the steep gradients and very sharp curves require double or triple
traction.

Air transport
No capacity problem exists at this time or is expected to arise in the near future for this mode oftransport, as Bosnia and Herzegovina has enough airports with proper facilities.

River transport
The Sava river is not a recognised international waterway for navigation, so that commercial
shipping is limited. The equipment and infrastructure of its two ports require restoration.

Question 4: Measures
One of the priority tasks of the government and of other concerned institutions is to restore thetransport infrastructure. Reconstruction and the extension of networks will depend to a large extent
on the country’s financial resources. Given the current situation, the Bosnian authorities cannot rely
exclusively on financing from foreign sources.
Rehabilitation of the various transport networks is expected to take several years, as damage is
extensive and the country’s economy remains shaky. At first, emphasis is to be placed on initial
repairs required to restore traffic, with more general restoration work to come later. Following thereconstruction period, the government is expected to take certain steps aimed at improving the overall
transport level, including building major roads, increasing the speed and comfort of trains,eliminating bottlenecks, improving safety, developing international air transport, taking into
consideration environmental impacts, and making the system more energy-efficient.

SOURCES

1992 Statistical Annual of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
ZIZ Statistics for 1992.
Internal statistics of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Railways.
IPSA documents (Transport Institute, Sarajevo).
48

BULGARIA
Area: 111 000 km²
Population: 8 500 000

It is fairly difficult to define trends in the transport sector, as well as for the Bulgarian economy
as a whole. In May 1996, some international observers thought that the general economic situation of
the country would stabilise somewhat, but a few months later a number of indicators were still
fluctuating sharply. Although GDP grew by 2.5 per cent in 1995, inflation is at a low of 2.6 per centon average, and unemployment is down by 1.8 per cent, the country is in the throes of a severebanking crisis and the currency has been sharply devalued.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
The information on Bulgaria relates only to traffic trends between 1990 and 1994. There are nodata on future prospects. For passenger traffic, changes in statistical methods explain in part the steep
fall in traffic. Nothing is said in this respect about freight traffic (and road transport in particular),and yet the large fall in this traffic is very difficult to account for.

Passenger traffic
Between 1990 and 1994 the volume of passenger traffic fell by half, all modes combined.
Inland waterway-maritime transport, with a total of 266 000 passengers in 1990 (90 per cent by
maritime transport), carried only 61 000 passengers in 1994. Inland waterway transport lost
60 per cent of its traffic volume and maritime transport 80 per cent.
Although it is negligible, inland waterway transport doubled its traffic in terms of passenger-km
during this period. Maritime transport lost 84 per cent of its 1990 passenger-km. In 1994 it carriedless than half the traffic, in passenger-km, of inland waterways, i.e. 3 million as against 6 million
passenger-km.

49

Passenger traffic trends, 1990-94

Thousands of passengers:- road- rail- urban transport (tramway andtrolley)
- air
Total
Thousands of passenger-km:- road- rail- urban transport (tramway andtrolley)
- air
Total
∗

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

2 167 090
102 399

1 359 310
72 787

1 306 667
75 9091 096 158*
76 085

973 652
65 730485 496
2 534
2 757 815

352 146
1 217
1 785 588

409 494
1 460
1 793 607

277 648* 258 357
1 848
1 542
1 451 820 1 299 342

25 9557 793

19 0264 866

16 9575 393

14 062*5 837

12 817
5 059

1 632
3 760
39 162

1 164
2 677
27 7441 319
2 999
26 679978*
4 173
25 064949
3 604
22 438Introduction of a new method of counting passengers with travel passes in the Sofia area.

Road transport
While the number of passengers carried fell by half, the number of buses in operation in 1994
was only down by 30 per cent from 1990.
Changes in the number of vehicles, 1990-94

Number of buses
Number of trolleys
Number of cars
Number of private cars

1990
13 232836
1 317 437
1 276 751

1991
12 716844
1 358 976
1 316 644

1992
11 360845
1 411 278
1 361 306

1993
10 287836
1 505 451
1 443 153

1994
9 521
822
1 587 873
1 517 579

The number of private cars on the road increased by 18 per cent in four years.

Rail transport
Changes in rolling stock and capacity, 1990-94

Number of locomotives
Number of poweredrail vehicles
Number of wagons
Number of seats

1990
1 111

1991
965

1992
943

1993
939

1994
878

94
1 932
124 77293
2 009
132 25390
1 905
131 84590
1 797
132 89088
1 736
119 951

50

Although traffic and rolling stock figures seem less alarming than the figures for road transport,
the Bulgarian railways seem to be in deep crisis and on the verge of bankruptcy.

Freight traffic
The volume of freight traffic has fallen considerably, irrespective of mode. In 1994 it was only
27 per cent of the volume in 1990. However, as international trade is growing and the distances
travelled are lengthening, traffic in tonne-km was only 12 per cent down from the 1990 figure.
Maritime transport seems to be the mode that has weathered the economic transition mostsuccessfully. In 1994, maritime freight tonnage was still 83 per cent of the 1990 volume, whereas
road freight tonnage was divided by six, that of rail by two, and that of inland waterways by four overthe same period.
The present trend in road transport is all the more disquieting in that traffic in tonnes as well as
in tonne-km is still falling sharply, whereas the decline is at least slowing for other modes. Railtransport in tonne-km increased by 1 per cent between 1993 and 1994.

Freight traffic, 1990-94

Thousand tonnes carried:- road- rail- inland waterway- maritime
Total
Million t-km :- road- rail- inland waterway- maritime
Total

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

295 867
63 2532 630
20 349392 580

151 280
35 2381 552
18 609215 049

96 62732 261
1 238
15 966152 033

74 10131 417768
15 807130 427

51 67330 274608
17 087108 254

9 821
14 132
1 606
65 09391 332

6 307
8 685
1 024
62 47578 976

5 448
7 758
837
63 36377 708

4 050
7 702
457
67 96380 529

3 679
7 774
360
68 60080 8241990
37 830378 298
295 867
9 821

1991
35 062361 699
151 280
6 307

1992
27 014304 94296 6275 448

1993
20 667
252 419
74 101
4 050

Road transport

Number of HGVs
Capacity in tonnes
Volume of freight transported
Traffic in million t-km

51

1994
16 387215 750
51 673
3 679

The figures supplied by the Bulgarian authorities only cover public firms, so that there are no
figures on the new private firms. However, many small road transport companies have recently been
set up, and, according to the same authorities, road haulage is the sector of transport that has coped
the most successfully with the economic transition and privatisation.

Latest figures for the number of road haulage firms(including passenger transport)

Number of private enterprises
Number of state enterprises

1994
15 477
197

1995
21 141185

In March 1996, there were 6 126 firms engaged in international road haulage, of which 5 747
had only from one to five lorries. Only 29 had more than 50 vehicles.
Furthermore, the participation of foreign hauliers in the transport of Bulgarian exports andimports is tightly regulated, and hence very small, less than 1 per cent. The entry of foreign operators
into the Bulgarian market is subject to bilateral agreements based on the principle of reciprocity.
Rail transport
Four types of freight accounted for more than 60 per cent of rail tonnage in 1994: coal and coke
(8 060 000 tonnes), liquid fuels (4 485 000 tonnes), metals (3 337 000 tonnes) and quarry products(2 488 000 tonnes). The last type of cargo has suffered particularly from the recession; in 1990 it
was the second largest rail freight market, with 9 770 000 tonnes carried.
Inland waterway/maritime transport
The Bulgarian transport authorities are relying on the lifting of the embargo on the Danube torevive inland waterway transport.

Tonnage loaded and unloaded in inland waterway terminals by destination, 1990-94

ImportExportTransit

1990
3 138
479
5 772

1991
1 735
253
2 039

1992
1 912
305
1 065

1993
2 274
105
1 094

1994
1 612
139
1 215

Ro-Ro transport on the Danube is growing, especially on the following routes:---

Bulgaria-Reni (Ukraine)
Bulgaria-Passau (Germany)52

For this type of traffic there are three regular services on the Danube, between Romania andBulgaria, in the regions of Ruse-Giurgiu, Vidin-Kalafat and Oriakhovo-Beket. They are primarily
used for TIR international freight transport.
Tonnage loaded and unloaded in maritime ports by destination, 1990-94

ImportExport1990
19 0064 169

1991
12 6834 110

1992
10 2245 009

1993
12 9125 507

1994
13 034
6 926

Maritime transport currently seems the best placed (including financially) to weather the
economic difficulties.
Scheduled Ro-Ro services are also operated to Poti in Georgia and Novorosiisk in Russia fromBurgas and Varna. The Bulgarian company “Bulcon” still operates a service from Varna to ports in
Western Europe.
Combined transport
Since 1970, combined transport has been a priority of Bulgarian transport policy. Up to 1990
priority was given to developing the use of 20-foot ISO series 3 containers (i.e. gross weight of
5 tonnes). However, TEU traffic fell by two-thirds between 1990 and 1994.

Number of TEU carried1990
146 0501994
52 766

However, new combined transport services are being introduced on the corridors defined in
Crete. They are part of the PACT (Pilot Actions of Combined Transport) programme.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
Description of existing infrastructure
The level of infrastructure is increasing very slowly in all modes.
Road infrastructure
Bulgarian road infrastructure by type of road

Total length of network
Length of motorway
Roads- category I- category II- category III- category IV

1990
36 922273

1991
36 930276

1992
36 932276

1993
36 935277

1994
36 911
277

2 933
3 798
6 263
23 655

2 933
3 797
6 263
23 661

2 933
3 797
6 263
23 663

2 933
3 796
6 261
23 668

2 924
3 789
6 261
23 66053

Since 1990, road density per 1 000 km² has been 332.6, and 92 per cent of the network is paved(asphalt, macadam, etc.). In four years, only 11 km of roads were built, and about 80 km were paved.
Rail infrastructure

Length of network
Length of 1435 mm gauge track- of which twin track- of which electrified

1990
4 299
4 054
960
2 640

1991
4 299
4 054
960
2 640

1992
4 294
4 294
960
2 650

1993
4 294
4 294
960
2 650

1994
4 291
4 291
964
2 645

Rail density per 1 000 km² is 38.7 km and has not changed since 1990. Sixty one per cent of the
network is electrified, and 87 per cent of freight tonnage is carried on electrified lines.
The rail system is to be reorganised under the PHARE programme.

Evaluation of present and future infrastructure needs
It is difficult to predict public funding for transport infrastructure given the present economic
instability. According to studies carried out for the European Commission (the TINA group),
Bulgaria would spend ECU 50 and ECU 60, respectively, per year per inhabitant on infrastructure in2000 and 2005 compared with an average of ECU 200 and ECU 250 in the EU. These figures seemall the smaller in that needs are very great. Moreover, in real terms, public revenue fell steeply by
between 50 and 60 per cent between 1989 and 1993. Consequently, the budget for infrastructure
investment and maintenance was slashed by 80 per cent. Public spending on infrastructure in 1994
ECU per inhabitant thus fell from 42 in 1989 to 15 in 1993.
At 25.6 MECU in 1992, spending on road infrastructure was barely sufficient to cover basic
maintenance.
A 1992 World Bank study showed that more than half of the Bulgarian road network required
upgrading and repair, and that an average expenditure of 500 MECU would be needed for widening
roads, improving safety, and bridges. However, it is difficult to evaluate these figures precisely,
notably those regarding the proportion of the network that requires repair.

Estimated cost of raising the Bulgarian infrastructure to European standards

Corridors defined in Crete
All corridors

Length(km)
1 054.2
1 511.2

Roads
Cost
MECU/
(MECU)
km
3 727
3.54
5 310
3.51

54

Rail
Length
(km)
1 262
1 534

Cost
(MECU)
2 074
2 429

MECU/
km
1.64
1.58

Estimated investments for Bulgarian road and rail infrastructure, 1996-2005, by scenario

Road rehabilitation
Rail rehabilitation
Upgrading of main roads
Upgrading of local roads
Upgrading of railways (main network)
Upgrading of TEN roads
Upgrading of TEN railways
Total rehabilitation + upgrading*

Scenario 1 *
1 004
214
1 738
588
357
1 593
729
6 222

Scenario 2 *
1 004
214
2 433
1 177
500
2 124
972
8 422

The two scenarios for the evolution of the economy to 2005 are those of Michel Gaspard, Le
financement des infrastructures de transport en Europe centrale et orientale.

Infrastructure projects on TEN corridors
There are 14 priority projects for all modes:
1.

Project No. IV/12:
Construction of a new road and rail bridge to the west of the common border with Romania,
between the town of Lom (Bulgaria) and Rast (Romania), or between Vidin and Kalafat.
The purpose of the project is to facilitate freight flows between Central European countries andGreece and Turkey. It has medium-term priority and would cost about $140 million. It is still inthe design phase pending an agreement between the two countries concerned.

2.

Project No. IV/14:
Electrification and modernisation of the railway line between Plovdiv and Svilengrad;reconstruction of the track and installation of signalling and telecommunications equipment tomake it possible to raise train speeds. Electrification is a medium-term priority, whereas
reconstruction and modernisation to raise train speeds is a long-term priority. All told,$358 million would be required.
The design has been approved and electrification of the Plovdiv-Dimitrovgrad section is under
way.

3.

Project No. IV/16a and No. IV/16b:
Both of these are combined transport projects:
Project 16a: construction of a modern terminal near Sofia with storage areas, refrigerated
warehouses and modern combined transport equipment. The priority is long-term, and the cost
would be $50 million. The design phase has not yet been completed.

55

Project 16b: modernisation and reconstruction of the existing terminal in Dimitrovgrad,
expansion of the storage area and acquisition of new equipment. The priority is also long-term
and the project should cost $30 million.
4.

Project No. IV/20:
Reconstruction and modernisation of certain sections of one of the main international highways,
the I-1/E-79, in the west of the country. It is planned to double the number of lanes and to build
motorway sections, bypasses around urban areas, and road tunnels. Priority is being given to
widening the Vladaja-Dragichevo section (8.353 km) to four lanes.
Priority is medium-term and the estimated cost is $440 million.
according to the sections.

5.

Progress varies widely

Project No. VII/3:
Upgrading of the two main Danube ports, Ruse and Lom. The estimated investment is$20 million for the port of Lom and $30 million for the port of Ruse. The preliminary technicaland economic studies have been completed only for Lom.

6.

Project No. VII/5:
This project concerns the container terminal in the port of Varna. The aim is to improve theefficiency of the container handling facilities and to increase the terminal’s capacity to cope withincreased traffic. The project provides for the purchase of new gantry cranes and modern
equipment. It has medium-term priority, at an estimated cost of $52.8 million. The preliminary
studies have been completed and the construction master plan is being drawn up.

7.

Project No. VII/6:
This project concerns the container terminal in the port of Burgas. It includes the construction ofan additional wharf, construction of new loading and unloading areas and the acquisition ofmodern equipment capable of handling over 120 000 TEU per year. The project has
medium-term priority at a cost of $42 million. The preliminary studies have been completed.

8.

Project No. VIII/10:
Construction of a rail link from Gyueshovo to Kumanovo in F.Y.R.O.M. For the Bulgarians, it
involves building a 2 km section on Bulgarian territory along its border with F.Y.R.O.M. For
this, a rail tunnel has to be completed. The project has short-term priority, at an estimated costof $12 million. The preliminary design work and constructions plans have been approved, andwork is starting.

9.

Project No. VIII/1:
This project is related to the previous one since it involves the reconstruction of the line between
Gyueshovo and Radomir: 80 km of track must be electrified in order to increase train speeds
from 65-75 km/h at present to 120-140 km/h. Until now this was a secondary line but the56planned upgrading will allow it to handle international rail traffic. The cost is estimated at$100 million. The feasibility and engineering studies have been completed.
10. Project No. VIII/12a:Modernisation of the port of Varna and in particular its grain terminal, and acquisition of
additional equipment -- conveyors, silos and other equipment. The investment is fully warranted
given the increase in traffic since a market economy was put in place. The preliminary studies
have been incorporated in a master plan for all the port installations in Varna. The project has
medium-term priority at a cost of $15.6 million.
11. Project No. VIII/12b
This project concerns the port of Burgas and particularly its bulk cargo terminal. Initially, theterminal will be moved as it is too near to residential areas. A new 200 x 400 m wharf with fiveberths will be built, and modern facilities, including 12 new cranes and an additional 200 000 m²
storage area will be provided. A dike will be built and the entrance to the harbour will bedredged. The project has long-term priority, the aim being to provide high-quality services andto reduce the disturbance to residential areas. It should cost $80 million and is still in the designphase.
12. Reconstruction and modernisation of Sofia international airport
Sofia international airport will have to be rebuilt and modernised to cope with the projected
increase in domestic and international air traffic, to improve safety, and to reduce environmental
damage. The airport aims to become a hub for transcontinental long-distance flights. The
project is a short-term one. ECU 140 million are needed to rebuild the runways and 120 million
to rebuild the passenger and freight terminals and airport infrastructure. The entire project has
been approved by all the authorities concerned and the preliminary work should start very
shortly.
13. Development and reconstruction of Burgas international port
The project concerns all the transport infrastructure in the Burgas area: reconstruction of thefreight terminal and of the runways of Burgas airport, and upgrading of its access roads. The
aims are the same as for the previous project: to improve safety, to enable the port to cope withincreased traffic and to reduce the impact on the environment. The project has short-term
priority, with an estimated cost of ECU 60 million. The feasibility studies were carried out
jointly by an English firm, Mott MacDonald, and the Air Transport Institute. Work is about tostart.

Question 3: Capacity problems
The Bulgarian documents lack data on infrastructure. However, other documents stress the
structural problems facing the various modes.
The degree of privatisation varies in different parts of the transport sector; the state still plays animportant role in regulating market access and the conditions under which firms operate.
57

Road transport
Programme of withdrawal of the State from road transport undertakings
Percentage

Freight transport undertakings
Passenger transport undertakings
Service and repair companies
Total

1996
95
99
80
98

1997
80
85
30
96

1998
70
80
20
94

2000
50
60
10
88

2005
34
50
10
68

Maximum fares are set for passenger transport. For intercity transport, prices can be set freely
up to the maximum. For urban transport, however, the local authority sets fares. Passenger roadtransport contracts are awarded by tender in accordance with Decree No. 1 on the organisation of bus
passenger transport, as approved by the Bulgarian Council of Ministers. The State is responsible for
ensuring the roadworthiness of vehicles and road safety, and the local authorities for the quality ofservices.
Market access is granted only to carriers licensed to engage in transport in accordance with the1991 Business Act. Natural and legal persons, whether Bulgarian nationals or not, must prove thatthey have been duly authorised. Licences are valid for one to three years and can be withdrawn by
the Ministry of Transport in the event of failure to comply with legal requirements. Compliance withregulations is verified by the municipalities and a specialised road transport inspectorate under the
Ministries of Transport and the Interior.
International passenger transport, scheduled bus and shuttle services also have to be licensed by
the Ministry of Transport.
Freight transport rates are entirely deregulated.

Rail transport
In accordance with the 1995 Act, the newly constituted Bulgarian State Railways Company isboth carrier and operator for domestic and international rail transport. Modelled after the European
Union Directive 91/440, this Act separates infrastructure management from operation. From theaccounting standpoint, the separation will take place in 1997.
Only ancillary services and activities such as wagon and container repairs, catering and sleeper
services, will be privatised. The State will remain the principal owner of the railways.
Consequently, prices, especially for freight transport, are set subject to approval by the Ministryof Transport. Rail managers complain that they cannot compete on equal terms with road hauliers,
who are free to set prices and, according to the rail managers, do not have to bear the user andmaintenance costs of road infrastructure. The competition from road transport undertakings,
especially in passenger transport, is considered all the more unfair in that these undertakings start newservices alongside the existing rail services but with much lower prices.

58

Question 4: Measures
While a number of laws and regulations have been adopted since 1990, operating conditions stillvary widely among modes and types of traffic. The situation for charges and taxes levied on transport
undertakings is equally varied and complex. For Bulgarian road hauliers, the situation is fairly clear:
they pay an annual tax for the use of infrastructure, calculated according to the engine capacity, age
and type of vehicle. The (very few) foreign hauliers are subject to a completely different taxation
system. Vehicles registered in countries with which Bulgaria has not signed a bilateral agreement are
subject to a wide range of taxes and charges:
−
−
−
−
−

entry tax;
charges for using motorway and three and four-lane highways;
a tax on vehicles with a gross weight of over 38 tonnes;
a tax on vehicles more than 2.5 m wide, more than 4 m high and more than 22 m long;a tax on vehicles whose loading weight is high and badly distributed over the various axles(more than 10 tonnes/axle);− a bridge toll on the Danube between Giurgiu and Ruse;− charges for using roadside car parks and rest areas.

Total taxes and charges vary according to the type of vehicle (HGV, private car or bus), thecategory of road, vehicle dimensions, weight and axle load. Between the maximum and minimum
amount of taxes and charges that can collected, the ratio is 15 to 1. The system favours domestic
carriers, since a very large Bulgarian vehicle of over 38 tonnes with an axle load of 10 tonnes will pay
only half the above-mentioned taxes and charges.
With financial assistance from the PHARE programme, the Bulgarian Transport Ministry is in
the process of implementing the TOL system. It will come into service in 1997, initially on the SofiaPlovdiv section of the Trakia motorway. This should shorten border crossing times since it is atborder crossings that the taxes of the Road Tax and Licences Division of the Transport Ministry arecollected.
Negotiations are currently under way with the European Union on the signature of an agreementthat would make it easier for Bulgarian road hauliers to travel through the EU and for EU vehicles totravel through Bulgaria. It is also planned to sign an agreement on “Interbus” road operators.

SOURCESLe courrier des pays de l’Est, No. 409, May-June 1996, La Documentation Française.
Gaspard, Michel, Le financement des infrastructures de transport en Europe centrale et orientale:
Evolution et perspectives, Presses de l’Ecole des Ponts et Chaussées.
Republic of Bulgaria, Statistical Compendium 1996, Transport sector.
Bulgarian Ministry of Transport, “Priority investment projects related to the transport infrastructureof the Republic of Bulgaria”.

59CROATIA
Area: 56 610 km²
Population: 4 784 265

Since 1991, the Croatian economy as a whole has experienced a steep decline. Most occupied
territories were liberated by military action (“Bljesak” and “Oluja”) and have once again become partof the political and legislative system of the Republic of Croatia. However, from an economic pointof view, military action has replaced earlier priorities in the nation’s budget, with the result that
60 per cent of GDP has been used for government spending. In 1995, foreign trade resulted in a trade
deficit of $2 877.2 million. Exports amounted to $4 632.7 million (up 8.7 per cent over 1994) and
imports to $7 509.9 million (an increase of 43.5 per cent over 1994). The trade deficit could not be
offset by income generated from sources such as services, travel and tourism, and Croatia reported abalance-of-payments deficit for the year.
Economic data for 1995 indicate an increase of 3.9 per cent in the cost of living over the figure
for November 1994. Unemployment rose from 1994 to 1995, with a 5.4 per cent drop in the numberof jobs in 1995.
GDP was estimated at $17 billion for 1995. Industrial production rose by 0.3 per cent over 1994.
Inflation was particularly low in 1995, but prices have risen by 3.7 per cent since 1994.
The economic situation of the Republic of Croatia appears about to turn around, and the country
has begun to attract foreign investors, including from outside the European Union. A strong desire to
become integrated and measures taken by Croatia at the European and international levels are themain reasons for this.

Question 1: Future trends in goods and passenger traffic
In terms of performance and organisation, transport in Croatia lags far behind that of the moredeveloped systems of European Union countries. The share of transport costs in GNP is very high(16-20 per cent) in Croatia, as compared with that of other European countries (6-8 per cent).

Passenger traffic
In 1995, public transport traffic had declined by 55 per cent (in passenger-km) from its 1990
level, with a decline from 10 631 million passenger-km in 1990 to 5 719 million in 1995.

61

Only short-term forecasts are available for air transport.
Overland transport suffered considerably during the war and from the trade embargo. It is not
surprising that growth only occurred in maritime transport.
At the end of the 1980s, tourism in the former Yugoslavia generated 60 million guest nights inhotels and revenues of $3 billion a year. Croatia accounted for the lion’s share of this business, byvirtue of its long Adriatic coastline. Military action in 1995 caused tourism to collapse again(8.5 million guest nights, as against 34 million in 1994). However, the Ministry of Tourism expects
the sector to recover significantly in 1996 and anticipates that it will generate 17.2 million guest
nights and revenues of $2 billion. The Croatian government is relying on income produced by this
sector to restore its balance of payments.

Domestic and international public transport
Million passenger-km

Road
Rail
Maritime
Air
Total

1990
7 004
3 429
198

1995
4 052
943
280
444
5 719

10 631

1997

625

Public transport
Thousands of passengers

Road
Rail
Maritime
Air
Total

1990
148 408
40 2488 101

1995
83 65217 4555 591
679
107 377

196 757

1997

900

Road passenger traffic
The considerable increase in the number of motor vehicles in Europe since the Second World
War and the growth of individual travel has resulted in an expansion in automotive tourism from
northern and western European countries to those of the south of Europe, in particular the regions of
the Adriatic coast. Most tourists visiting Croatia arrive by car.
Motor vehicles in Croatia have increased at a rate comparable to that of other European
countries, rising by 100 per cent since the end of the Second World War.
In 1994,825 852 automobiles, 1 861 buses and 2 943 commercial vehicles were registered.

62

Passenger road transport

Total
Domestic
International

Passenger-km(millions)
1990
1995
7 004
4 052
6 743
3 372
261
680

Passengers(thousands)
1990
1995
148 408
83 652147 558
82 141850
1 511

Passenger rail traffic
A comparison of the combined volume of all forms of domestic passenger traffic and the shareof the total accounted for by rail transport before and after the war reveals that rail transport has
declined by 11 per cent.
In 1995, rail transport accounted for 21.9 per cent of total overland transport. While the numberof passenger-km for all modes fell by one half from 1990 to 1995, the number of passenger-km
declined by more than two-thirds.
This transport mode has been the most affected by the hostilities of the past four years, asmeasured in terms of both the destruction of the infrastructure and the volume of traffic (there being astrong correlation between the two). The Croatian railways will have to acquire new rolling stockwith the help of international financial assistance. A number of international railway lines link
Croatia with many European countries.

Passenger rail transport

Total
Domestic
International

Passenger-km(millions)
1990
1995
3 429
943
3 137
913
292
30

Passengers(thousands)
1990
1995
40 24817 45538 96516 725
1 283
730

Passenger maritime traffic
Maritime transport is very important in that it provides regular service to 47 Croatian islands off
the Adriatic coast with a permanent resident population. Regular connections to the mainland are
indispensable to the development of life on those islands.
River passenger traffic is insignificant, owing to competition from other modes, especially roadtransport.

63

Passenger maritime transport
Thousands of passengers

Total
Domestic
International

1990
8 101
6 815
1 296

1995
5 591
5 487
104

Passenger air traffic
Croatia Airlines is the Republic of Croatia’s only air carrier for domestic and internationaltransport of passengers and freight. It started regular service in May 1990, linking Split, Dubrovnik
and later Pula, Zadar, Rijeka and Osijek to Zagreb, the capital, for domestic traffic. At the time, it
had also developed international service to Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris, London and, later on, other
European capitals. It was forced to suspend operations during the war years. However, in the springof 1992, it began to restore some domestic service and, gradually, service to other parts of Europe. At
present, the airline has 20 scheduled international flights (Europe and Mediterranean countries), fivescheduled domestic flights and unscheduled service to some 20 countries.
Traffic is expected to increase substantially in 1997, with a 32 per cent rise projected(38 per cent in the case of international flights alone).

Passenger air transport
Thousands of passengers

Total
Domestic
International

1995
679
333
346

1997
900
420
480

Freight traffic
Freight traffic declined considerably from 1990 to 1995, owing to the war. The volume of
freight shipped fell by 69 per cent during the period.
Domestic and international freight traffic volume
Million tonne-km

Road
Rail
Maritime
Air
River

1990
2 852
6 535
175 994
527

1995
1 251
1 974
195 986
5
33

64

1997

6
2 150

Freight traffic volume
Thousand tonnes

Road
Rail
Maritime
Air
River

1990
15 05335 79629 1181995
5 127
13 31838 121
5
776

2 713

1997

4

Road freight traffic
The geographic location of Croatia makes it a key zone for through traffic along two axes. The
horizontal axis links western and central Europe to the countries of the south-east. The vertical axis
links the Baltic region to the Adriatic through the Danube area.
The total volume of road traffic, and particularly domestic transport, has dropped substantially,falling by 66 and 72 per cent, respectively, between 1990 and 1995, as measured in tonnage hauled.

Road freight traffic volume

Total
Domestic
International

Tonnes-km (millions)
1990
1995
2 852
1 251
2 241
575
611
676

Tonnes (thousands)
1990
1995
15 0535 127
14 320
4 049
523
1 078

Rail freight traffic
The decline in rail freight traffic is due primarily to the war. The share of total transport
accounted for by this mode fell by 7 per cent (from 66 per cent) between the pre-war period and 1995.
Consequently, the Croatian government has had to cut back service on certain lines. This applies tocross-border lines, such as those linking Cakovec and Lendava or Rogatec and Durmanec, as well as
to transit rail freight service from the port of Rijeka.

Rail freight traffic volume

Total
Domestic
International

Tonnes-km (millions)
1990
1995
6 535
1 974
3 943
458
2 592
1 516

65

Tonnes (thousands)
1990
1995
35 796
13 31821 5102 726
14 286
10 592

Maritime and river freight traffic
At present, there is an excess loading capacity of some 30 per cent in Croatian ports, which are
not adapted to modern freight technology; ports compete with each other and there is a shortage oflinks with the rest of the country.
The port of Rijeka is still Croatia’s largest, handling primarily intercontinental freight traffic(94 per cent); another 5 per cent involves Mediterranean countries and 1 per cent coastal shipping.
River traffic, with 3 per cent of the total volume for this mode, is negligible. Domestic traffic
accounts for 80 per cent of the total and 20 per cent for international traffic.

Maritime and river freight traffic
Thousand tonnes

Domestic
International

1990
Maritime
River
3 473
2 424
26 533289

1995
Maritime
River
4 318
445
10 573
26

1997
Maritime
River
2 000
150

Air freight traffic
The geographical location of the Republic of Croatia contributes significantly to thedevelopment of this mode of transport. The average annual growth rate was about 3 per cent in 1990
and the share of freight volume was half of what it is in other European countries. Available
projections show an expected increase of 5 per cent a year.

Air freightThousands of tonnes

Total
Domestic
International

1995
5
2
3

1997
6
2
4

Question 2: Current state of the infrastructure and capital projects
Since 1995, considerable sums have been spent on the transport infrastructure. However, many
structures and facilities were destroyed during the war and need to be replaced. The Republic of
Croatia intends to make capital investments with the help of loans from the World Bank, the EBRD
and other international sources.
As a result, the government of Croatia has agreed to grant concessions for certain routes,
including the Adriatic route in Istria, known as the “Istrian Y”.
66Current state of the infrastructure
Road infrastructure
The road network covers 27 379 km, with 4 788 km of primary roads, 4 431 km of which meet
motorway technical standards. The density of the network is 48.4 km per 100 km² and 5.82 km per
1 000 population.
During the coming ten years, 3 382 km of roads will have to be built, of which 2 071 of
motorways, 927 km of main roads and 384 km of roads on Croatian islands.
Rail infrastructure
The war had drastic consequences for rail transport, as 29 per cent of tracks are no longer
operational.
The embargo on the main rail lines from Zagreb to Tovarnik and from Zagreb to Split, Sibenik
and Zadar caused total volume to fall by half and revenue from transport to decline by 60 per centfrom pre-war levels. Direct and indirect damage to equipment and facilities has been estimated atabout $353 million and $789 million, respectively.
Rail lines cover 2 973 km, with 2 726.2 km of open track, of which 2 478.5 km are single-tracklines and 247.7 km double-track lines. A five-year programme of capital expenditure on
infrastructure has been budgeted at $648.4 million.
Maritime and river infrastructure
Croatia has a 1 777.5 km coastline on the Adriatic and more than 350 ports. The seaports ofPula, Rijeka, Zadar, Sibenik, Split, Ploce and Metkovic are capable of handling large ships.
Two waterways of international significance run through Croatia. They are the Danube, over
137.5 km, and the Drava (198.6 km). On the latter, only 14 km (E-80-08) are considered ofinternational importance. Ports for international traffic are at Vukovar, Osijek, Slavonski Brod andSisak. The border ports are Vukovar and Osijek.
River network
No. of navigable
waterways
1
2
3
4
5

*
**

Name
Dunav
Drava
Sava
Kupa
DanubeSava Canal

I

Distance open to navigation (km)
III
IV
Va
VIb
137.5*
129
8
14*
170
276
5
II

47.6
131.0
-

-

Waterway of international significance.
Construction project.

67

-

60**

-

-

Total
137.5
198.6
446.0
136.0
60.0

Airport infrastructure
Croatia has 11 international airports, of which eight are located on the Adriatic coast. Seven are
first-category facilities rated 4E. The Zagreb airport handles one-third of total air traffic. It is themain hub for domestic and international air traffic for passengers and freight. The Split andDubrovnik airports together account for most of the combined traffic; flights to the three facilities
represent 95 per cent of all air transport.
The Republic of Croatia intends to build small airports (for aircraft transporting 50 passengers orless) on the islands of Hvar and Korcula and to rebuild the Losinj airport runway, in order to boost
tourism.

National priority projects
Priority road corridors in the Republic of Croatia
1.

Kiev-Budapest-Gorican-Zagreb-Rijeka

In terms of the European road network, the section running across Croatia from Gorican to
Rijeka via Zagreb is included in the international European road system (E-71, E-65 and E-63). The
road spans a distance of 268 km in Croatia. To date, 87.3 km have been completed, 41.6 km areunder construction and 139 km still have to be built. This is to be a road with separate lanes 26 to
28 m in width and with a speed limit of 100 km/h.
2.

Nuremberg-Graz-Maribor-Zagreb-Karlovac-Bihac-Knin-Split

This road [Zagreb-Karlovac-(Zadar, Sibenik)-Split-(E-69)] will carry traffic from north-westernand central Europe across Croatia to the Adriatic and the Middle East. It will link the developed
industrial countries of Europe and developing countries and will cover a total of 388.05 km in
Croatia. To date, 75.5 km have been completed, 19.5 km are under construction and 295.05 km still
have to be built.
3.

Ljubljana-Zagreb-Slavonski Brod-Belgrade-Athens-Istanbul

The Ljubljana-Zagreb-Slavonski Brod-Lipovac segment is a TEN longitudinal axis and one of
the main roadways linking north-western Europe with Athens and Istanbul, via Belgrade. It also
connects south-eastern and north-eastern Europe (E-70). It covers a total distance of 306.9 km, of
which 220 km have been completed. At this time, 13.7 km near the border with Slovenia need to bebuilt, as well as 73.2 km to the border with the “new” Yugoslavia.
4.

Venice-Trieste-Rijeka-Split-Tirana-AthensThis road is part of the longitudinal axis to the Adriatic and a segment of the E-63, which is partof the international network. It runs along the Croatian coastline and is not designed exclusively as athrough road. It plays an important economic role for Albania, F.Y.R.O.M. and Greece, offering
access to Turkey and the Middle East.

68

5.

Warsaw-Budapest-Osijek-Sarajevo-Metkovic-Ploce

This road links central European countries to the southern Adriatic and provides an opportunity
to include Bosnia and Herzegovina in the European road network, along with a part of Croatia(including Osijek, the largest city in the eastern region of Slavonia, and the river ports on the Drava).
The section to be built in Croatia covers 97.7 km (see the annex map for 2010, showing roads).
Priority rail corridors in the Republic of Croatia
1.

Budapest-Zagreb-Karlovac-Rijeka-Trieste
This is the main link between central and eastern European countries and the port of Rijeka.

2.

Graz-Maribor-Zagreb-Split
This is the main line linking the central Adriatic region with central Europe.

3.

Ljubljana-Zagreb-BelgradeThis is the main line linking the countries of south-eastern Europe with those of north-western
Europe (see the annex map for 2010, showing railways).

Question 3: Capacity problems

Road safety
Traffic accidents have reached a particularly alarming level in terms of injuries and fatalities. In
1990, there were 67 952 reported road accident in Croatia and 1 175 fatalities. For the same year,
railways reported 2 308 accidents, with 89 fatalities. There were no reported accidents in maritime,
river or air transport. The adverse trend abated in 1995, further to substantial spending forinfrastructure, which helped improve the safety and quality of transport. However, the chief factor in
accidents is still human error. The situation is of concern to the Croatian government.

Energy consumption
Total energy consumption is increasing gradually, with road transport the leading user. The
current rate of increase in the number of motor vehicles makes it appear impossible to reduce energy
consumption in the foreseeable future.

Environmental impact
There has been a considerable increase in the use of lead-free fuel by motor vehicles, asadvocated for environmental protection. A survey has shown that road transport (all forms)
accounted for more than 50 per cent of total emissions of toxic gases. Therefore, the Croatiangovernment wishes to develop rail transport, which is less polluting, and make it more attractive.
69

Question 4: Measures
The restructuring of the transport sector requires first and foremost the adoption of regulations
aimed at creating structures better adapted to competition in transport. To achieve this goal, a numberof resolutions have been adopted.
Croatia’s transport policies are based on a number of socio-economic objectives:− the development of public transport services that are less harmful to the environment;− the improvement and development of transport services corresponding to needs, in terms of
capacity as well as quality and environmental protection;− a growing contribution to GNP from the transport sector, through the creation of newservices, more international transport and through traffic, and the promotion of internationalrail connections;− the development of the transport infrastructure within a competitive market.
On the domestic market, the emphasis is on increasing the use of public transport systems:− by a restructuring of the sector;− by eliminating losses incurred by these transport modes, which are of strategic interest to thegovernment (public road transport, rail transport, public maritime transport).
More generally, the objectives of Croatia’s transport policy include:− improving the quality of all transport systems to bring them up to European standards;− linking up domestic traffic on the Bosnia-to-Croatia corridors to the TEN scheme, in thefollowing directions:•west to east:∗ Trieste-Ljubljana-Zagreb-Belgrade-Skopje-Athens/Middle East;∗ Trieste-Rijeka-Zadar-Split-Dubrovnik-Bar-Tirana-Athens;∗ (Trieste/Ljubljana)-Jajce-Zenica-Sarajevo-Gorazde-(Albania);∗ (Trieste/Ljubljana)-Zagreb-Bihac-Glarnoc-Livno-Tomislavgrad-Mostar-Ploce(Albania);•

north to south:∗ Budapest-Osijek-Sarajevo-Mostar-Ploce;∗ Budapest-Zagreb-Rijeka-Trieste;∗ Nuremberg-Linz/Vienna-Maribor-Krapina-Zagreb-Split;∗ (Budapest)-Balathon-Virovitica-Banja Luka-Split.

Rail transport
The Croatian government reports a set of measures taken as part of a major overall project torestructure the national railway company.

70

Independent legal entity
The law on railways, enacted by the Croatian Parliament on 28 June 1994, made the nationalised
company HZ Croatian Railways an independent corporation, to be managed as efficiently, diligently
and economically as possible.
Separation of infrastructure and operational management
The Croatian Railway Act requires the national company to manage the infrastructure separatelyfrom its transport operations.
Entry of new operators
Local and municipal governments, towns, counties and other legal entities or individuals may
carry out the maintenance of railway facilities (at least in part), on condition that they invest funds inthis business activity, pursuant to Article 7 of the Railway Act. The Act also authorises the Ministry
to subcontract transport services to third parties.
Payment for the use of the infrastructure
Fees are to be paid for the use of the railway infrastructure and equipment, with income earned
going to the division in charge of managing the infrastructure and adding to the annual revenue of thenational railway corporation. Fees are to be set by the Croatian Ministry of Maritime Affairs,
Transport and Communications, in agreement with the Finance Ministry, based on a fee schedule
submitted by the national corporation.
Participation by foreign corporations
This matter has not yet been considered. In accordance with Croatian law, foreign operators
must obtain permission. However, as very large subsidies are required for the operation of allservices, the issue of allowing foreign corporations to operate in the sector will largely depend on theavailability of financial resources. The possibility exists to license firms for the building andmanagement of the railway infrastructure, but this requires the consent of Parliament.
Rights of access for the development of a combined transport service
The issue has not yet been considered, but the principle seems acceptable. The conditions underwhich this could be done must be negotiated.
Financial recovery of railway companies
As part of a restructuring plan for the Croatian railway system (“Program of Restructuring and
Financial Recovering of the Croatian Railways”) short-term and long-term measures have been
designed to put the national corporation on a sound financial footing over the period 1997-2000. In
January 1994, the Croatian government adopted a programme which has three main steps:− drafting the Railway Act, particularly in terms of the restoration of the infrastructure;− reducing the number of employees;− increasing productivity.
71

It is too early to assess the impact of these measures. The government’s objectives are to create
the conditions for economies of scale, to complete the development of the two axes referred to above
and to privatise the national company.
The government is also seeking to promote other economic goals, with an obvious impact on therailway business. They include freeing market access and relations between the European Union andthe transition economies.
The economic development of the Republic of Croatia, that is, its productive capacity andequipment, the skills of its work force, the opening up of its industrial markets to foreign investors,
etc., are factors affecting the growth of rail transport. Furthermore, this growth can take place only ina framework of harmonious relations between transition economies and the European Union.
The priorities of the Croatian government in terms of transport policies are:− to review the existing or planned pattern of European corridors, taking into considerationsuggestions or remarks made by all countries concerned;− to define the role of railways in combined transport, along with an intermodal transport policy
at the European level.

SOURCESSYC 1995.
“Study of Restructuring of Croatian Railways”“Proposal of European Traffic Corridors through Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
Le courrier des pays de l’Est, No. 409, May-June 1996, La Documentation Française.

72

CZECH REPUBLIC
Area: 78 864 km²
Population: 10 400 000

The Czech Republic is experiencing fast growth, fuelled as much by an investment and consumer“boom” as by faster growth in the construction and processing industries. In contrast, growth in theservices sector has been low.
This growth trend now appears to be definite and revised forecasts suggest that GDP may be as
high as 5.1 per cent in 1996. Inflation has now stabilised and unemployment figures are downslightly.
GDP trends

Total in million CZKAnnual growth (%)

1993
400.7
-0.9

Actual
1994
411.2
2.6

1995
431.1
4.8

Forecast
1996
2000
453.4
553.2
5.1
5.7

Scenario
2005
742.1
6.4

At the same time, the trade gap has widened and there are now signs of a balance of trade deficit(still covered, however, by foreign capital inflows and larger foreign currency reserves). However,
the Czech budget surplus is adequate to cover inflationary trends.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
The transport market has been radically affected by the division of the former Czechoslovakia
and the need to adapt to free market principles. All transport enterprises have been privatised, except
the railways.

Freight transport
The changes have had a number of consequences, especially for freight traffic (by rail inparticular). The downsizing of the heavy industry sector, for example, has reduced one of rail’s
principal markets.

73The various studies carried out for the Czech Transport Ministry show that there is a correlation
between transport demand and the main economic indicators. For example, GDP and traffic growth
curves show the same pattern: a decline of over 20 per cent from the end of the 1980s to 1993,
levelling off again in 1994. The total volume of freight carried increased slightly in 1993 and again in
1995 when there were signs of a recovery, with growth up 3.6 per cent up on 1994.
The main feature of the recovery of the transport market has been the shift of domestic demand
to road transport. Rail and waterway transport are now falling back on international traffic where
they seem to be more competitive in terms of price and, in the case of rail, speed.

Figure 1. Trends in modal split% tonnes-km

Inland waterway
Road
Rail

1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Source: ECMT.

Road transport
From 1989 to 1995, the total volume transported by road (own account plus transport for hire)declined by approximately 25.3 per cent. However, this traffic again picked up over the period
1993-95 when the total volume increased by 7.2 per cent.

Trends in total road transport, 1990-95

Billion t-km
Million tonnes

1990
16.8
743

1991
18.2
615

74

1992
20.25
580

1993
25.26
585

1994
29.81
601

1995
32.50
627

A distinction should be made between own account transport and transport by state-owned
hauliers. After a decline in demand between 1989 to 1992, transport by state-owned hauliers ismaking a strong comeback in its own market (total volume transported up 35.6 per cent between 1992
and 1994, and 17.9 per cent between 1993 and 1994). This is the result of highly satisfactory
standards of service which have won it a share in markets that were previously the preserve of railtransport.

Trends in road transport by state-owned hauliers, 1990-95

Billion t-km
Million tonnes

1990
8.81
198

1992
12.51
160

1994
19.76
217

1995
22.90
247

1995/89265.3 %
10.5 %

1995/9336.9 %
34.2 %The volume of own account transport is still declining, but at a slower rate since 1993.

Trends in own account road transport, 1990-95

Billion t-km
Million tonnes

1990
8.01
545

1992
7.74
420

1994
10.05
384

1995
9.60
380

1995/8934.2 %-38.3 %

1995/9312.4 %-5.3 %

These statistics indicate that the number of HGVs on the road is rising very slowly, whereas
average distances travelled have lengthened substantially, particularly in transport by state-owned
hauliers. Still, 1995 marked a real turning point compared with previous years.
Trends in the HGV fleet
Millions of units

Vehicles% annual change

1989
1990
1991
261.51 271.42 276.64
+3.7
+1.9

1992
278.25+0.6

1993
276.94-0.5

1994
286.12
+3.3

1995
307.5
-

Trends in the average distance travelled per vehicle
Percentage
1994/89+67.1

1994/92+39

1994/93+30.9

Rail transport
Rail was the mode worst hit by the economic changes, as can be seen from the 51.8 per centdecline in volume transported over the period 1989-95. However, in terms of volume andtonne-kilometres, freight traffic appears to have stabilised from the end of 1993. The change between
1993 and 1995 was only -1 per cent in both cases.
75Trends in rail transport, 1990-95

Billion t-km
Million tonnes

1990
41.14
200.671991
32.67
155.401992
31.11
139.76

1993
25.64
123.72

1994
24.39
108.76

1995
25.39
108.86In terms of types of product transported, rail’s markets have not changed, but all have declined involume (tonnage):− solid fuels accounted for 39 per cent of rail’s market in 1994, as opposed to 49.8 per cent in
1992;− minerals and metallurgical products declined by 48 per cent from 1992 to 1994, construction
materials by 68 per cent and miscellaneous products by 70 per cent.
The volume of crude oil, tar and petroleum products was up 1.1 per cent over the same period.
The timber transport market grew by 22 per cent.
From 1989 to 1992, the volume of most export goods transported by rail doubled, but fell by
19.6 per cent from 1992 to 1994 and by 6.8 per cent from 1993 to 1994.
However, the largest decline in traffic was in import and transit flows.

Trends in rail traffic
Million tonnes

International traffic
ImportExportTransit
Domestic traffic
Average distance (km)

1992
67.37
26.63
31.38
9.36
72.39
200.20

1993
53.73
18.75
27.05
7.93
69.98
203.80

1994
49.11
18.15
25.23
5.73
59.63
206.901994/92 (%)
-27.1
-31.9
-19.6
-38.8
-17.7
+3.3

Waterway transport
The demand for waterway transport declined steadily from 1989 (down 43 per cent over theperiod 1989-95 in terms of volume transported, 8 per cent in terms of tonne-km), particularly for fuels.
However, waterway traffic stabilised in 1994 (up 0.8 per cent on 1993) when international flows
began to pick up, increasing by 7.9 per cent from 1992 to 1994, particularly export and transit flows.
In 1995, the upward trend was confirmed, but only in terms of tonne-km, with 1.23 billion comparedwith 1.18 billion in 1994. In terms of tonnage transported, waterway traffic again declined in 1995
when it totalled only 4.55 million tonnes.

76Trends in waterway traffic, 1989-94
Million tonnes

International traffic% change from previous year
ImportExportTransit
Domestic traffic% change from previous year
Total traffic% change from previous year

1989
1.73
0.62
0.68
0.43
6.17
7.90

1990
1.31
-24.3
0.64
0.53
0,14
5,06
-14,9
6.7
-19.4

1991
1.12
-14.5
0.49
0.47
0.16
4.72
-10.2
5.85
-8.2

1992
1.13
+0.9
0.36
0.53
0.24
3.98
-15.7
5.12
-12.5

1993
1.10
-2.7
0.37
0.55
0.18
3.80
-5.6
4.90
-4.3

1994
1.22
+10.9
0.35
0.67
0.20
3.72
-2.2
4.94
+0.8

Combined transport
There are currently 16 road/rail transhipment centres in the Czech Republic, of which two arerolling roads, and six road/waterway terminals, including two Ro-Ro terminals.
There was a substantial and rapid decline in large container traffic by rail until the
Czech Republic became independent, owing to deteriorating trade relationships with its former
partners (Russia, the Ukraine, and others) at a time when combined transport flows were high becauseof differences in track gauge from one country to another.
However, from 1994 on, the situation improved for the combined transport sector in general andtonnage transported has picked up substantially.

Trends in combined transport
Million tonnes

Combined transport overall% change from previous yearRail% change from previous year
Waterway% change from previous year

1989
3 953
3 900
0.053

1990
3 542
-10.3
3 500
-10.3
0.042
-21.7

1991
1 902
-46.6
1 870
-46.6
0.032
-24.3

1992
1 506
-20.9
1 490
-20.4
0.016
-49.7

1993
1 040
-31
1 035
-30.5
0.005
-68.8

1994
1 540
+48
1 528
+35.8
0.012
+140

Air transport
Air transport began to recover earlier than other modes. In 1992, air freight traffic picked up by
13 per cent. This trend was confirmed in the following years, with an average growth of 3.7 per cent.
However, air’s share of the overall market relative to other modes is still around 0.1 per cent.

77Domestic airlines’ share of the market declined in 1994 to 38.4 per cent compared with
39.4 per cent in 1993. Similarly, the annual figures in tonne-km are somewhat uneven. Despite thegrowth trend, the Czech air market does not yet appear to have stabilised.

Passenger traffic
Public passenger transport by train and bus were until recently the only forms of public transport.
Patronage has declined, however, for a number of reasons related to socio-economic change:− the emergence of new transport financing methods;− the rapid development of private bussing services;− the unprecedented increase in private car ownership levels.
In fact, the number of private cars rose by 36 per cent over the period 1989-95, bringing the total
to 3.11 million, at a rate of over 10 per cent per year from 1992 to 1994, but the rate appears to havestabilised at around 5 per cent in 1995.
The modal split in public passenger transport is very much the same as in 1989, with buses
carrying 82 per cent of the total traffic and rail carrying 18 per cent. Private car traffic increased by
33.8 per cent over the period, reversing the modal split between public and private passenger
transport.
Public transport
Million passengers
Million passenger-km
Private car
Million passengers
Million passenger-km

1989
1 666.67
38.60

1995
1 235.31
27.65

1 270.00
38.10

1 700.00
54.50

Road transport
With 82 per cent of passengers transported, bus transport is still the dominant mode in publicpassenger transport overall, despite a 27.1 per cent decline in patronage over the period 1989-95 and a
33.4 per cent decline in passenger-kilometres.
The legal status of bus service operators varies. The largest operators date back to the wave ofprivatisations of state-owned undertakings. This is the case for CSD.
Between 1989 and 1994, the number of vehicles declined sharply (down by 11.3 per cent or asmuch as 20 per cent for regional service operators) as the bus fleet rapidly became obsolete.
The number of passengers transported increased by 5 per cent over the period 1989-92.
However, it was down by 23.6 per cent between 1992 and 1994.
Network density, in terms of connections and kilometres travelled, decreased proportionately tothe decline in patronage, with the result that access to bus services is now becoming more difficult for
those in rural or outlying areas.

78Trends in public passenger transport by road, 1989-95
Million passengers

Total passenger traffic% change from previous year
Scheduled services
Unscheduled services
Mobility coefficient(number of trips/year perperson by bus)

1989
1 376
1 319
56.68

1990
1 358
-1.3
1 309
49.41

1991
1 352
-0.5
1 310
42.1

1992
1 422
+5.
1 382
39.2

1993
1 195
-16
1 161
34.6

1994
1 086
-9.
1 053
32.43

132

131

131

137

115

105

1995
1 004
-7.5

Trends in public passenger transport by road, 1989-95
Passenger-kilometresBillions of passenger-km

1989
25.18

1990
28.18

1992
26.00

1994
18.84

1995
16.77

Rail transport
Since 1989, rail transport has declined by 21.7 per cent in terms of passengers and by
40.2 per cent in terms of passenger-kilometres, largely owing to the abolition of special fares (mainly
for workers). This measure was an economic necessity for the rail companies. As a result, thenumber of passengers paying standard fares (no reductions) on domestic journeys rose by
31.4 per cent over the period 1989 to 1994. Travel distances are very short, but are lengthening
slightly.
The number of passengers making international journeys has fallen by three-quarters over theperiod 1989-94, mainly owing to increased competition from foreign railways, which offer cheaper
fares and better services.
Trends in rail passenger transport, 1989-95
Million passengers

Total passenger traffic
Domestic traffic fares
standard
student
othersworkerInternational traffic
Passenger-km (billions)
Total
Domestic
International

1989
290.04285.71101.9441.7
33.74
108.25
4.33

1990
289.17285.51103.2942.32
35.07
104.82
3.65

1991
295.01291.74107.80
48.91
35.45
99.56
3.27

1992
289.55288.13
85.54
44.5
48.12
109.961.42

1993
242.18241.05109.41
45.33
86.31

1994
228.72227.63134.04
41.52
53.16

1.12

1.08

13.42
11.71
1.71

13.36
11.92
1.44

13.61
12.35
1.26

11.76
11.34
0.42

8.54
8.28
0.26

8.48
8.21
0.27

79

1995
227.098.02

Air transport
Prague-Ruzyne airport handles 95.2 per cent of all flights from the Czech Republic. Since 1989,
this mode has been growing steadily (number of passengers up 44.3 per cent between 1993 and 1995)
for a number of reasons:−−−−access to new markets;
liberalisation of services on domestic airlines;
simplified customs formalities;
more tourist and business travel to Prague.

International passenger traffic rose by 70 per cent between 1992 and 1994.
The partitioning of the former Czechoslovakia into two independent states in 1993 should
substantially limit future growth in Czech domestic air traffic, even though this has not yet happened.

Comparative performance of airlines, 1993-95
Million passengers
1993
2 371
1 339
1 032

Total passenger traffic
By domestic airlines
By foreign airlines

1994
2 913
1 718
1 195

1994/93+ 22.8+ 28.3+ 36.6

1995
3.42

Urban transport
The development of urban public transport is in the hands of specialist companies and mainly
concerns the 18 largest towns in the Czech Republic. Urban transport managed to maintain its shareof traffic over the 1989-95 period, with 2.27 billion passengers per year and a 27.1 per cent increase
between 1993 and 1995. Prague, with 1.36 billion passengers in 1994, accounts for the largest shareof traffic, although urban public transport declined substantially between 1989 and 1995. This has
not happened in other towns, or only to a very limited extent.
However, since 1992, all public transport modes have declined (down 10.8 per cent from 1992 to
1994, no doubt as a result of fare increases) and there has been a return to the old “stand-bys” (cycling
or walking) in small towns.

Trends in public transport (bus, tram, metro), 1989-94
Million passengers

Total all modes% changes fromprevious year
Total bus

1989
2 868.73

1990
2945.26-0.8

1991
3 207.54+8.9

1992
3 075.02-4.2

1993
2 876.35-6.5

1994
2 744.79-4.6

1 428.09

1 403.18

1 455.01

1 324.34

1 236.19

1 145.21

80

Traffic forecasts
The Czech Ministry of Transport has developed only an outline forecast because of theunreliability of the statistical data available and because there is no national economic forecasting
agency. Two documents, a study of overall demand for freight transport in the Czech economy andtransport market estimates to the year 2005 provide a general framework which each part of thetransport sector can use for its own forecasts.

Freight traffic forecasts
The forecasts are based on an existing study and on economic growth estimates for the
Czech Republic from 1994. They take account of the main thrust of EU transport policy. The
economic indicator selected was GDP. The findings cover three periods:− the short-term, 1995;− the medium-term, 2000;− the long-term, 2005 (three growth scenarios, “pessimistic, realistic and optimistic”, wereconsidered).

Traffic forecast by mode, 1996-2005
Million tonnes

GDP (billion CZK)
Total freight transported
State-owned enterprise, of which:
Rail
Road
Waterways
Air
Private enterprise (road)
Total road transport

1996
453.4
752.49368.49104.30261.202.95
0.039
384.00645.202000
2005 / I
553.2
734.5
818.47900.15423.34489.65112.40124.70306.80360.20
4.10
4.7
0.045
0.050
395.13410.50701.93770.702005 / II
742.1
919.80501.96131.70365.105.10
0.056
417.84783.242005 / III
759.8
941.96519.86142.40372.105.3
0.059
422.10794.20On the basis of these scenarios, demand for freight traffic overall could total between 900 and
942 million tonnes a year in 2005. For all the scenarios, performance in tonne-kilometres would also
be substantially higher than at present.

Traffic forecasts, 1996-2005
Billion t-km

Total
Total public transport

1996
61.19
51.29

2000
68.81
58.51

81

2005 / I
75.57
64.67

2005 / II
78.23
66.93

2005 / III
80.39
68.98

Modal split projections for future traffic were based on current trends and the capacity of the two
principal modes, road and rail, to compete with each other.
Modal split projections for each scenario in 2005

Rail
Road
Air
Waterway

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
37.58
37.70
38.18
60.07
59.95
59.46
0.09
0.11
0.11
2.25
2.24
2.24

Rail transport
The forecasts for rail show that traffic will increase under all three scenarios, providing that therailways can adapt to market conditions (price, organisation, development of combined transport).
Combined transport
For the Czech Republic, the use of combined transport is essential in view of the environmental
consequences of over-reliance on road transport. However, in the view of the Czech authorities, itwill be difficult to develop combined transport without a strong lead from European Union countries.
Waterway transport
Despite the rather poor current figures, the Czech Ministry of Transport thinks that there is a realpossibility that waterway traffic will pick up as trade relations with other countries develop.

Passenger traffic forecasts
In this area, too, environmental considerations play a role. If nothing is done to modernise andimprove public transport standards and services, there will be an explosive increase in private car use.
The forecasts for the modal split of passenger flows have taken this consideration into account,
as well as the introduction of a transport policy which aims to restrict private car use and encourage
travel by other modes (principally rail), as in the major European Union member states.
Public transport by road
However, all the scenarios expect a decline in public transport from 1997, when increasing
unemployment is expected to result in fewer home/work trips. Bus traffic should also decline steadily
up to 2005.
Trends in passenger traffic, 1996-2005

Millions of passengers
Billions of passenger-km

1996
970.0015.30

2000954.1015.00
82

Scenario I
853.4014.80

2005
Scenario II
873.1014.90

Scenario III
920.7015.20

Rail transport
The decline in the number of rail passengers should level off in 2000, when demand is expected
to pick up as a result of improved standards of service and equipment upgrades.
Trends in passenger traffic

Millions of passengers
Billions of passenger-km

1996
222.507.64

2000
182.906.84

Scenario I
241.908.40

2005
Scenario II
248.209.30

Scenario III
254.9010.70

Air transport
Forecasts for air traffic were obtained by a different method, in order to better reflect
international demand and the situation on the international air transport market. This method also
used three scenarios for 2005.
Passenger traffic growth assumptions for air transport, 1996-2005

Millions of passengers
Billions of passenger-km

1996
3.80
3.20

2000
5.47
4.00

Scenario I
6.10
5.10

2005
Scenario II
7.60
5.80

Scenario III
8.60
6.20

The strong recovery in demand from 1993-94 justifies an optimistic outlook. Scenarios II and III
for 2005 estimate passenger traffic at 7.6 and 8.6 million, respectively, compared with 3 million
today. Scenario I estimates passenger traffic at only 6 million, for the same year, despite indicationsof a big increase in tourism and trade. However, this scenario seems unlikely, since it also assumes
that a high-speed train line linking the Czech Republic to major European cities will be brought into
operation.
Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
The Czech Republic’s transport infrastructure currently comprises:−−−−

9 430 kilometres of rail track, density 0.12 km/km²;
303 kilometres of navigable waterway, density 0.004 km/km²;
55 418 kilometres of road and motorway, density 0.71 km/km²;
92 airports (nine international), 13 heliports.

The Czech Republic is particularly interested in extending and upgrading infrastructure on themultimodal corridors defined at the Second Pan-European Transport Conference in Crete:− multimodal corridor no. IV, i.e. the Berlin-Prague-Brno-Breclav-Vienna/Bratislava section
and the Nuremberg-Prague branch ( IVA);− multimodal corridor no. VI, i.e. the Gdansk-Katowice-Ostrava-Zilina section and theOstrava-Breclav-Vienna branch (VIB).
83

Road infrastructure
The priority for the Czech road network modernisation policy is to complete the country’s
motorway and dual-carriageway network by 2007. The construction programme was approved byGovernment Resolution No. 631/1993 and the construction schedule is reviewed annually. The mainplanning criterion is traffic density.
According to a recent preliminary report on the construction of the motorway network, it will be
extended by 678.2 km by 2005, bringing its total length from 424.6 km in 1996 to 1 102 km in 2005.
The construction of the D5 Prague-Plient-Rozvadov motorway (in the direction of Nuremberg) is
receiving special attention. The last section towards Germany is to be opened to traffic in 1997,
although work will not be fully completed until 1998 (until 2002 for the Plzen bypass).
The D8 Prague-Usti motorway (in the direction of Dresden )is also one of the Czech Republic’s
major road traffic routes. The motorway section towards Germany is to be brought into service in
2002.
The construction of the D47 motorway is due to begin. It will be part of a north-south corridor
which crosses the Polish border at Ostrava, with a link to the D1 motorway at Brno, and continues via
the R52 dual-carriageway to Austria.
Breakdown of existing and planned investment
MECU

Motorways
Prague motorway
bypassDualcarriageways
Motorway
upgradesImproving
conditions on
international
roads
Improvements to
the Czech
networkRenovations tourban roads
Total
Of which fromthe state budget

Investment plans for the year
1998
1999
2000

Total
Budget1997
programme
1996
86.266 128.637 143.092 161.291 190.978 252.959 302.439 1 263.663
00.146
0.958 14.053 28.495 24.682 74.084 142.418

1994

1995

53.67848.67452.00546.32465.23798.787 107.988

472.694

2.734

14.78214.98220.00631.74021.49029.057134.791

0.106

3.291

0.996

12.616

11.11412.7385.986

46.84881.91563.93967.955 102.555 102.168

90.898 111.099

620.529

24.462

20.54956.66358.853344.453

60.66455.75367.510249.114 279.976 336.604 417.469 485.427 560.319 698.067 3 026.975
223.537 263.194 306.849 384.000 476.125 548.614 692.485 2 894.802

84

Rail infrastructure
As for road infrastructure, the main objective of the country’s rail policy is to upgrade lines thatare on both domestic and trans-European multimodal corridors. Upgrading should bring these rail
corridors up to the standards set by the European Agreement on Main International Railway Lines(AGC) and the European Agreement on Important Combined Transport Lines (AGTC) and by
Community guidelines on rail infrastructure policy. The four domestic corridors considered to be themost important for international transit traffic are:−−−−Corridor I:
Berlin-Decin-Prague-Ceska Trebova-Brno-Breclav-Vienna/Bratislava;
Corridor II: Vienna-Breclav-Prerov-Ostrava-Katowice;
Corridor III: Nuremberg-Cheb-Plzen-Prague-Olomouc-Ostrava-Zilina;
Corridor IV: Berlin-Decin-Prague-Vesli No. I-Horni Dvoriste/Ceske Velenice-Vienna.

The total length of priority corridors is 1 442 km. Upgrading work will be carried out on
corridors I and II, but will be staggered to avoid disrupting traffic. Once work on corridor I iscompleted, in the year 2000, work will commence on corridor III. Similarly, in 2002, once work on
corridor II is completed, work on corridor IV will commence. In this way upgrading work on thecorridors should be completed by the year 2007.
There are also plans to build a high-speed line between Prague and Nuremberg after 2005. Other
high-speed lines are now being studied and could be included in European high-speed network plans.
Breakdown of existing and planned investment
MECU

1994

Investment plans for the year
1995 Budget 1997
1998
1999
2000
Total
1996
programme
34.477 172.146 237.520 164.068 98.461 102.333 833.556
0.679
3.382 7.390 49.826 53.207 54.685 387.115
47.590 38.311 48.000 44.316 58.970 72.808 388.823

Corridor I
24.551
Corridor II
0.130
Rebuilding of some 78.829
lines
Rolling stock
0 31.043 80.993 70.822 16.509
00 199.367
modernisation
Safety and reliabilityof passenger and
005.469 11.233
2.956
3.547
5.912
29.116
freight services
Total
103.440 113.748 300.266 374.923 277.635 214.132 235.673 1619.817
Of which state
100.808 95.218 108.844 131.126 155.897 158.144 181.200 931.237
finance
Waterway infrastructure

These projects are mainly on the Elbe-Vltava route to Germany. Given the forecast increase ininternational waterway traffic, this infrastructure should be modernised and extended along the Elbe
towards the Pardubice industrial zone, particularly since Germany itself has plans to review its
infrastructure on the Elbe between Magdebourg and the Czech border in or around the year 2000.
This will require a total investment of CZK12.2 billion.
85

Furthermore, if Austria and the Slovak Republic agree, the Czech Republic is planning to makethe Morava river navigable and to develop the port of Hodonin. Work could begin sometime after theyear 2000.

Breakdown of existing and planned investment
MECU

1994
Modernisation ofnavigable waterways
Total
Of which state finance-1995 Budget
1996
0.036
-

6.371

Investment plans for the year
1998
1999
2000
Total
programme
4.328 7.121 18.506
36.562

6.565
6.462

4.325
4.307

1997

0.036
0

7.115
7.094

18.49018.47536.53036.338The development of combined transport infrastructure
The Czech Republic supports the European Union’s moves to promote a combined transportsystem that is sufficiently extensive to provide a real alternative to road transport. The measures
adopted to promote the development of this mode in Community directives, European agreements(AGTC) and ECMT resolutions have gradually been incorporated into Czech transport policy. The
first step towards securing the best climate for the development of this mode in the Czech Republic is
the publication of the Support Programme for Combined Transport in the CR for the years
1996-2000. The two main objectives of the programme are:− to improve rail transport conditions;− to improve working conditions for combined transport operators.
It also provides for the development of basic combined transport technologies and theconstruction or modernisation of terminals sited on the main international corridors.

Breakdown of existing and planned investment
MECU

Mode development
Total
Of which state finance1994 1995 Budget
1996
2.208
2.208
1.862

1997
3.399
3.399
3.399

86

Investment plans for the year
1998
1999
2000
Total
programme
4.789 5.498 6.326
22.2204.789 5.498 6.326
22.2203.902 4.493 5.173
18.829

The development of air transport infrastructure
The government’s two priorities are:− to improve the Czech Republic’s air traffic control system, principally by installing morereliable and more powerful radar and communications equipment;− to improve air infrastructure as quickly as possible and ensure that it complies with ICAO
standards.
The main focus of this work will be the rebuilding and modernisation of Prague-Ruzyne airport,
particularly its runways. The sums required will be particularly high since for years the only work
carried out was on military air bases.

Breakdown of existing and planned investment
MECU

Air traffic control
Rebuilding ofarrival halls
Total
Of which state
finance14.40846.799Budget1996
12.18062.7524.018
36.675Investment plans for the year
1998
1999
2000
Total
programme
15.467 13.269 13.935 117.509
10.3103.961
3.281 163.896

61.1949.920

74.922
13.59740.68910.09825.764
11.3981994

1995

44.3210.118
44.31027.845

1997

17.2184.951

17.2043.872

281.30181.682

Question 3: Capacity problems
The recovery in demand for passenger and freight transport as of 1993-94 should not pose any
insurmountable problems as regards infrastructure capacity.

Road transport
Given the explosive growth in road traffic between 1990 and 1995, capacity problems on the
Czech road and expressway network were inevitable. Traffic on the network increased to record
levels:−−−−−expressways, up 33 per cent;
category I roads, up 28 per cent;
category II roads, up 16 per cent;
category III roads, up 10 per cent;road network overall, up 20 per cent.

The rebuilding of the road network could not keep pace with the fast growth in road traffic(private cars and HGVs), particularly for expressways. Currently, 415 km of expressway and 315 kmof other high-speed roads are in service. Only 35 per cent of the total length of category I roads have87

been improved, and the situation is worse for category II roads, where only 11 per cent have beenrebuilt to international standards. The most urgent problems currently are as follows:− providing a high-standard expressway network and sufficient road links with European Union
countries;− increasing current capacity at border crossing points and improving access to them (and to
new crossing points);− building expressways and other high-speed roads on the most heavily travelled routes;− building urban bypasses in towns where there is heavy freight traffic, in order to eliminate
nuisances and improve the environment;− rebuilding bridges (and building more bridges), since, of the 15 562 existing structures,
8.8 per cent are currently in very bad condition, 20.2 per cent are in satisfactory condition,and 36 per cent do not meet weight capacity standards. It should be pointed out that
52 per cent of the country’s bridges were built over 50 years ago.

Rail transport
As rail traffic was reduced by 43 per cent between 1989 and 1995, capacity problems cannot
simply be attributed to quantities carried. There are two explanations for bottlenecks on the
Czech rail network:− major alterations and upgrades on the main international transit corridors will continue until
2007;− inadequate track and bridge maintenance reduces train speeds.
As a general rule, delays are due less to the size of the network than to poor standards of service,slowness and technologically outdated equipment that is not up to European standards.

Air transport
Air mode is likely to be the first to experience major capacity problems for several reasons:− air traffic has experienced the strongest growth;− the “monopoly” of the Prague-Ruzyne airport.
In fact, Prague-Ruzyne handles 95.2 per cent of all traffic. It was designed to handle 2.5 million
passengers per year, but it is now handling 3.4 million. Rebuilding work started in June 1995 and is
to continue in three phases until completion in 1997. Capacity should be increased to 4.8 million
passengers per year. However, it is expected that this will not be sufficient since, according to theforecasts, 6.1 million passengers per year will be using the airport by 2000. Consequently, a fourth,fifth and sixth phase are already under study.

Waterway transport
The Utsi-Labem section of the Elbe-Vltava waterway to Magdeburg (Germany) is posing major
draught problems. In fact, vessel laden capacity is dependent on the level of the river at any given
88

time, which cannot be predicted much in advance. If the level falls too low, shipping can beinterrupted for weeks. The record was 100 days in 1992. This has a major impact on operator’sbusiness as they are not always able to give a precise delivery time and in some periods are unable tohonour their contracts.

Question 4: Measures
A number of changes are needed to enable the gradual integration of the Czech Republic into theEuropean Union’s economic and transport systems. To this end, special measures have already beentaken, both for infrastructure development and for the integration of transport firms into a competitivemarket.

Rail transport
A restructuring plan for Czech railways is currently being drafted. It will establish:− a strategy for Czech railways to 2005;− an economic model;− a framework for the liberalisation of freight transport and the regulation of passenger
transport;− joint finance programmes with the State;− the role of foreign operators;− a fares policy;− a human resources programme.

Road transport
The Czech authorities are in the process of examining a programme for the development ofexpressways and dual-carriageways. This should serve as the master plan for the Czech road networkfrom now to 2005.

Air transport
A construction project for Prague-Ruzyne airport is currently being developed. It also provides
for the privatisation of three airports: Ostrava-Mosnov, Brno-Turany and Karlovy-Vary.

Freight transport
The Czech government is extremely concerned about the environment. It wants the railways toretain a major role in freight traffic. Well aware of the changes that will be needed, the government isawaiting a broad-based European policy for the development of combined transport. In its view, anational initiative to implement the measures needed to ensure a more balanced modal split isinsufficient at a time when traffic is increasingly international.

89

The introduction of tolls has not yet been considered, but pre-paid annual registration fees foraccess to at least part of the network will be introduced as from 1995 in order to make a return on
motorway investments.

Passenger transport
The measures taken relate first to subsidies and special fares, which were introduced to allow
network operators to set or revise their fares in line with costs and increase their income from ticket
sales.
Passengers whose discount fares have been withdrawn (students, workers) will be compensateddirectly by the government.

90

DENMARK
Area: 43 093 km²
Population: 5 197 000

In 1993 the transport sector accounted for 7.4 per cent of Danish GDP, against 6.6 per centin 1984. The road haulage sector alone accounted for half of the “transport GDP” in 1993.

Figure 1. Transport share in country economy in 1993

Breakdownof the transport sector GDP

Total GDP 755 bn DKr
Transport
7.4%

Ancillary
activities
20%

Road
46%

Remaining GDP
92.6%

Sea
16%

Rail
11%

Air
7%

Source: Statistics Denmark.

Gross output of the transport sector (at constant prices) increased by 60 per cent over the period.
Intermediate consumption (at current prices) increased by 36 per cent. At constant prices, thetransport sector has been growing regularly for ten years. In 1991 it was already 61 per cent higher
than in 1984. It is growing faster than the Danish economy, which grew by only 18 per cent (atconstant prices) over the same period.

91

Figure 2. Development of gross product at constant prices
Million DKr in 1980
Index 1984 = 100

Index 1984 = 100

250

250

225

225
Sea transport

200

200

175

175
Total transport sector

150

150

125

125

100
75
1984

Transport by road

Total Danish Economy

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

100
75
1993

Source: Statistics Denmark.

Over the past ten years, maritime transport activities have increased the most. Road transport,
after increasing in 1986, has remained fairly stable, with even a slight decline between 1992 and11993. However, of the 16 000 transport enterprises in the VAT register, 71 per cent are road
operators. Road and maritime transport enterprises and those in ancillary activities have the same
turnover. As a general rule for all modes, just 3 per cent of them account for 73 per cent of the mode
turnover.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Traffic should continue to increase. Passenger transport should grow by about 25 per cent by
2005 and freight transport by about 40 per cent. These forecasts are based on government estimatesof economic growth. Since the rate of growth has been lower than expected, the same will no doubt
be true of traffic growth in the next few years.

Freight traffic
Of the 180 million tonnes of domestic freight, 94 per cent goes by road, of which 84 per cent intrucks of over 6 tonnes. The volume of freight carried by coastal navigation amounted to less than
50 million tonnes in 1992. The share of rail is negligible.

92

In international freight transport, 71 per cent of the tonnage transported in 1992 went by sea and23 per cent by road, with the rest going by rail.

Figure 3. Modal split of domestic and international traffic

Domestic transport

International transport

Train

Other

Cargo ship

Train

Lorry
> 6 tonnes

Ship

Goods roadvehicles< 6 tonnes

Goods roadvehicles

0

50

100

150

200

Million tonnes

0

20

40

60

Million tonnes

Source: Statistics Denmark.

Road transportThis sector is characterised by a very large number of very small operators. Only 1 per cent of
the enterprises have a turnover of DKr 25 million or more. In addition, 8 per cent of those working inthe sector have a second job in another branch. This sector employs a high proportion of unskilledworkers.
Until 1988, domestic road haulage was expanding rapidly. From 1989, the trend was reversed,
with the slowing down of the national economy and, in particular, reduced activity in the construction
sector. While the transport of construction materials fell, that of finished products (manufactured
products, food products, machinery, small parcels, etc.) increased. This increase concerned only the
public carriers and vehicle hire services, at the expense of own-account operators.
Operating conditions of firms in this branch have improved, especially in own account andvehicle hire. Productivity per truck has increased in the past ten years. The number of empty returns
has fallen, with more vehicles being loaded on wagons. The trip length per tonne of freight has
increased, but with the use of combined transport techniques, the annual vehicle kilometrage has
increased only a little.

93

There has been a decline in freight flows in the Copenhagen area and to the east of the Little
Belt. An increasing proportion of freight is loaded in the counties of Ribe, Vejle, Aarhus and Viborg.
The majority of the traffic is local, with freight being transported within a single county. Little
freight traverses the country, and only 3 per cent of total freight is transported between Jutland andFunen and between Zealand and the islands.
International road haulage increased between 1984 and 1993 in line with the growth of imports
and exports. The export traffic share of the total is somewhat higher than that of imports, 82 per centas against 67 per cent. In 1992, Danish operators carried 74 per cent of the international freighttraffic. Over this period, national operators increased their market share.

Maritime transport
Over the past ten years, freight traffic in Danish ports has increased. Between 1984 and 1993,
maritime transport increased by 24 per cent. This increase is due, on the one hand, to thedevelopment of ferry traffic and, on the other, to the ever-growing activity of foreign ship owners in
Danish ports.
In 1993, domestic sea transport accounted for 11 per cent of total sea transport in Danish ports.
After a decline in traffic at the beginning of the 1980s, Danish coastal shipping grew between 1984
and 1991 (when there was a slight decline). In 1993, the volume of traffic was 21 per cent higher
than in 1984. The cargoes carried are 63 per cent solid and liquid fuels and 26 per cent stone, cement,
gravel, sand and lime.
Over the past decade, domestic ferry transport carried an annual volume of some 9 million
tonnes, and accounted for 10 per cent of sea-borne freight traffic in 1993. One quarter of this tonnage
is aboard trains carried by ferries across the Great Belt, the rest being loaded virtually exclusively ontrucks; 48 per cent of these vehicles cross the Great Belt, 36 per cent take other east-west roads, and16 per cent take some other route. It is the Great Belt traffic which has increased most (up by
1.4 million tonnes between 1983 and 1993). The other east-west routes have seen traffic fall by
0.7 million tonnes over the same period.
Between 1984 and 1993, sea-borne traffic from other countries increased very slightly. In 1993,
33 million tonnes of freight were imported by ship, or one-third of the total traffic handled by Danish
ports. Over 30 per cent of these imports are solid and liquid fuels. Agro-food products andconstruction materials accounted for only 11 per cent of imports. Still in 1993, 19 million tonnes ofcargo were exported to foreign ports, or an increase of 100 per cent in the volume of traffic since1984. The quantities of liquid fuels and cereals, 49 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, of thefreight exported, increased considerably.
Danish flag vessels accounted for only 15 per cent of exports and 12 per cent of imports by sea.
The use of foreign flag crude oil tankers is increasingly frequent, reducing the market share of Danish
ship owners in export traffic.
Ferry traffic increased by 5.4 million tonnes between 1984 and 1993.

94

Rail transport
Since 1986, overall domestic rail freight traffic has declined. In 1992, 2.1 million tonnes offreight were carried by rail in Denmark, or 25 per cent less than in 1986. Only parcel traffic(25 per cent of the total domestic traffic) has increased, especially since 1991, whereas complete
loads (block trains and wagon loads) have declined considerably since 1988. In addition, thedistances covered by freight trains have declined. Combined transport accounts for 20 per cent of
total national traffic.
In international traffic, the flows are virtually entirely made up of block trains or wagon loads,
while parcel traffic accounts for only 0.2 per cent of the total. Between 1986 and 1993, rail freight toforeign destinations increased very significantly, up 60 per cent in volume and 48 per cent in transport
output. The most important export freight categories are tobacco, agro-food products, iron and steel,beverages and miscellaneous articles.
Rail freight imports are declining, and the volume of traffic fell by 9 per cent between 1986 and1993. Rail transport output for this type of traffic fell by 12 per cent.
In 1993, transit freight traffic carried by rail amounted to 2.8 million tonnes and 653 million
tonne-km, or one-third of the total traffic on the Danish rail network. Rail transit has increased by
49 per cent since 1986, in particular due to the growth of traffic from Sweden.
Air transport
Denmark has 26 airports, but freight traffic of over 350 tonnes can only be handled at
Copenhagen and Billund airports. Copenhagen airport accounts for 96 per cent of freight traffic
between Denmark and other countries.

Passenger traffic
In terms of passenger-km, total passenger traffic increased by over one-third over the period
1984-93, solely as a result of growing car use. There are a number of reasons for the development ofprivate transport:−−−−

the vehicle stock is growing;
the road network is well-developed;
the price of public transport increased considerably over the period;
taxes on oil products have been reduced.

95

Figure 4. Trends in passenger transport and prices
Billion passenger-km

Index 1980 = 100

80

300
Total

70

250
Public transport

60
200
50
Private cars

Consumer price
index

40

150

Petrol

30

100
20
50
10
0

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93 84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

0

Source: Statistics Denmark.

Public transport users are primarily those who are too young to drive or who do not have thefinancial resources to afford a car (students, etc.).
Road transport--

Bus transport accounts for 7 per cent of total passenger traffic, scarcely more than thebicycle (6 per cent).

--

Private cars account for three-quarters of total passenger traffic. The majority of people
aged 16 to 74 use a car for both home-work commuting during the week and for leisureactivities at the weekend.

Rail transport
The railways account for 9 per cent of total passenger traffic. One-quarter of the passengers
using this mode use the tramway (S-train).
Air transport
Passenger transport by air is fairly substantial, as Copenhagen airport (tenth biggest in Europe)
had roughly the same number of passenger departures and arrivals (a little under 10 million) in 1992
as Orly, Rome and Brussels.

96Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
At constant 1980 prices, DKr 4.2 billion a year were allocated between 1984 and 1993 for road
construction and maintenance and DKr 1.1 billion for the construction of railways and the acquisitionof rolling stock. Over the period 1989-93, DKr 0.4 billion a year was allocated to new construction
and the fixed costs of the ports. DKr 2 billion have been invested since 1989 in the Great Belt fixed
link project.

Road infrastructures
Present situation
In terms of network density network, in km of road per km² of area, Denmark is in fifth place
among the countries of western Europe, after Belgium (first), the Netherlands, Germany and
Switzerland. Danish road capacity, in km of road per 1 000 vehicles, is in second place in Europe,
after Norway.
While the Danish road network was one of the most developed in Europe until recently, the rateof construction has slowed considerably over the past decade. There was an increase of only
1.5 per cent in the length of the network over this period, whereas the vehicle stock (commercial andprivate) increased by 15 per cent.
The network is made up of county roads, main roads and municipal roads. In 1991 the main
roads became an infrastructure policy priority. The length of roads with four or five lanes rose again,
because budgets for the construction and maintenance of public roads, which had been falling, wereincreased. In 1993, the amount allocated for the road network amounted to 40 per cent of the public
sector budget and 6 per cent of the national budget.
The vehicle stock
After falling at the beginning of the 1980s, the vehicle stock began to increase again fairly
steadily. As of 1 January 1994, there were 370 vehicles (private and commercial) per 1 000
population, as against 301 in 1976. The number of private cars, 83 per cent of the total stock,
increased by 25 per cent between 1976 and 1994. The number of buses also increased over this same
period for two reasons:---the expansion of public transport services in the early 1980s, with the creation of publicpassenger transport enterprises;
the 1991 fiscal changes for minibuses.

Compared with the rest of western Europe however, the vehicle ownership rate remains fairly
low, since Denmark is in second to last place (ahead of Spain).
Since 1976, total capacity of the stock of trucks, semi-trailers, etc., has doubled. In 1994, trucks
were bigger and more numerous than in 1976.

97

Investment projects
The priority projects for the construction of new infrastructures, apart from the corridor definedin the TEN (“the fixed link across Øresund”) are:---the construction of motorways north of Aalborg: expected cost, ECU 263 million andopening scheduled for 2001;
the construction motorway between Kolding and Esbjerg: expected cost, ECU 171 million
and opening scheduled for 1998.

In the context of the TEN (Trans-European Network), ECU 28.5 million are earmarked for road
construction.

Rail infrastructures
Present situation
In 1993, the total length of the rail network was 2 881 km, or a network density of 67 km
per 1 000 km². The Danish network is twice as dense as that of the other Nordic countries, but it isvery modest when compared with that of other European countries. Seventy per cent of the network
is single-track and only 11 per cent of the lines are electrified, even though the electrified share has
doubled in the past ten years. Between 1990 and 1993, the sums allocated (2 per cent of gross fixed
capital formation in Denmark) for railway construction and the renewal of rolling stock increased.
One-fifth of the rail network is operated by local private companies (belonging to local
authorities or the central government). The remaining lines are operated by the national railway
company, DSB.
Rolling stock
In recent years, 100 locomotives have been replaced by modern trains. The number of freightwagons has been sharply reduced, and although the new wagons are bigger than the old, the total
carrying capacity of the rolling stock fell by 18 per cent between 1984 and 1993.
At the beginning of the 1980s, the number of passengers fell steadily. The introduction of theIC3 express trains made it possible to return to a volume of traffic more or less the same as in theyears preceding the decline, but the overall number of seats available has nevertheless fallen by
8 per cent since the 1980s.
Investment projects
The rail infrastructure projects concern Denmark’s mainline network as projected in the TEN
programme. The work envisaged includes upgrading, electrification and laying of a second track on
the Odense-Padborg line. This project has been approved by the European Union. Since the studies
are not yet completed, the Danish authorities cannot at present give a figure for the total cost of thework or a date for the entry into service of the new line.

98Preliminary studies for the creation of a high-speed train network have just begun. No date forthe implementation of this project has yet been set.
In the context of the TEN, ECU 45.6 million will be earmarked for rail infrastructures.

Marine infrastructures
Present situation
In 1993, Denmark had 89 ports handling cargo, vehicles and passengers and 55 ferry ports. The
total traffic of these sites amounted to only 4 per cent of total European port traffic.
The merchant fleet
In 1994 the Danish merchant fleet amounted to 1.2 per cent of the world fleet and 7.7 per cent of
the European fleet. While total tanker tonnage has fallen by 35 per cent since 1985, the total tonnageof dry cargo vessels has increased by 42 per cent. This is explained by the substantial increase in thenumber of container and Ro-Ro ships in the total Danish fleet.
Investment projects
The Danish documents mention no new investments.

Question 3: Capacity problems
The problem of road accidents
The number of accidents causing death or injury fell by 26 per cent between 1984 and 1993. In
1993, there were 8 500 accidents, two-thirds of them in urban areas. Trucks represent a particulardanger to other vehicles and pedestrians. In 1993, trucks were involved in only 7 per cent ofaccidents, but 21 per cent of those killed were involved in collisions with trucks. Pedestrians make up
92 per cent of those killed or injured.
Energy consumption in the transport sector
Denmark’s total energy consumption has not changed since 1972 (before the first oil shock), but
the energy consumed by the transport sector increased by 24 per cent between 1972 and 1992. Road
transport is the biggest consumer, with 58 per cent of the total consumption for the sector, or an
increase of 16 per cent over the past ten years; this increase is in fact comparable with that of thevehicle stock. Diesel fuel consumption has increased particularly, as a growing number ofhouseholds buy diesel cars.
In 1993, maritime transport accounted for 28 per cent of the sector’s total consumption. Vessels
trading with other countries use 88 per cent of the Danish crude oil stocks, a trend that has increased
since 1984.
Rail transport energy needs account for 2 per cent of total transport consumption.
99

It is likely to be difficult to reduce the amount of energy consumed by the transport sector,
because the most fuel-efficient modes (such as rail) are increasingly being abandoned for the car. The
latest estimates forecast an increase in energy consumption of at least 15 per cent over the next few
years.
Environmental impact
A major study was carried out in 1990 on the pollutants emitted by the different transport modes.
The transport sector is responsible for over 50 per cent of total toxic gas emissions. Road transport isby far the most polluting mode. The authorities are counting in the first instance on catalytic
converters to reduce the toxic emissions released into the atmosphere by motor vehicles.
The present geographical distribution of the infrastructures for all modes in urban and residential
areas causes problems of noise emissions that exceed the norms in force in Denmark.

Question 4: Measures“Traffic 2005”, a programme of measures to improve transport efficiency and facilitate trade,
compatible with the needs of the population and respect of the environment, has been drawn up by theDanish government. It defines the following major strategies for the future:−−−−

influence the volume of traffic and of demand, in order to modify the modal split;
reduce environmental problems;
set new priorities for investments in transport infrastructures;
improve traffic research and statistics.

The main idea behind this programme is that the construction of new infrastructures will not
improve the present situation, as regards either traffic flows or regional economic development. On
the contrary, an increase in the capacity of infrastructures would induce additional traffic, notably on
roads. Priority must be given to technological solutions and the use of fiscal measures to regulate
demand and achieve a better modal split. High taxes are already levied on private car users and willcontinue to be in the years to come.
In the fiscal reform introduced in 1994, it was planned that the government would regularly
increase the taxes on diesel fuel until 1998 and perhaps even until 2005.
Denmark intends to sign an agreement with Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium andLuxembourg obliging road users to pay charges in all five signatory countries.
Less polluting modes, such as water-borne transport, railways and combined transporttechniques, should be developed. However, the potential for developing combined transport inDenmark appears very limited, according to a recent study, because 60 per cent of loaded trucks
travel less than 50 km and only 20 per cent more than 100 km. To develop this technique (in order at
least to reduce international road traffic), the government has undertaken to support efforts toconstruct a European rail-road combined transport network. It is prepared to draw up a multimodal
infrastructures programme.

100The development of fixed links between the Danish islands and the neighbouring countries
should also make it possible to increase transfers of traffic from road to rail.
In road transport, the number one priority is considered to be the improvement of road safety.
The “Traffic 2005” plan proposes to adopt the solutions worked out by the Danish Road Safety
Commission, despite their high cost. The improvement of road signs and signals and road equipmentin urban areas and the maintenance of the municipal network will be the priority tasks of themunicipalities and counties.

REFERENCES

Summary of the Danish government’s White Paper on transport and the Traffic Plan “Traffic 2005”,
submitted in December 1993.
Statistik Danmarks, Transport Statistik 95.
Danish Ministry of Transport, “Priority projects in terms of infrastructures”.

Note

1.

This is the national register in which transport enterprises must be recorded in order to pursue
their activities legally. They are mainly freight transport enterprises because passenger transport
operators are not obliged to register.

101

ESTONIA
Area: 45 227 km²
Population: 1 491 583

The transition to a market economy has been marked by far-reaching changes to Estonia’s
economic structures. Firms (particularly in the commercial sector) have had to find new partners
outside the countries of the CIS, partly as a result of currency conversion problems and partly as aresult of political upheaval in the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Economic development over the next few years has been estimated on the basis of GNP, whichis expected to rise by 2 per cent by 1998 and by a further 42 per cent between 1998 and 2015. The
expansion of the services sector, while rapid, has not been sufficient to compensate for the decline inindustrial output (down 39 per cent between 1991 and 1992). According to the national statistics
office, GDP has been falling steadily since the beginning of the 1990s.

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Decline in GDP(% per year)
6.5
13.6
14.2
8.6
3.2

In 1996, this negative trend should slow and become slightly positive by the end of the year. At
the start of 1995, GDP (in 1993 constant prices) had risen by 1.7 per cent on the previous year. The
price index rose by 1 308 per cent over the same period and unemployment by over 16 per cent. The
monetary reform which took place on 20 June 1992 has enabled Estonia to control its own monetary
policy. The Estonian kroon re-entered the international financial market pegged to the deutschemark.
In 1993, central government funds were expected to be 80 per cent higher than in 1992, with halfof the increase coming from VAT.
The increase in the volume of exports failed to overtake the rise in the import volume, leading toa worrying balance of payments deficit. In 1994, the share of exports in GDP was 78.7 per cent. The
share of imports was 89.7 per cent.

103

The exit from the rouble area in June 1992 brought an end to transactions with the otherrepublics of the former USSR. However, this drop in trade was offset in a spectacular manner in1993 by the growth of exports to western countries. Exports are divided equally between the EFTA
countries and members of the CIS. Currently, 80 per cent of exports go to the CIS and the European
Union (particularly Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands). Since the accession of Finland andSweden to the EU, the share of trade with the EU has risen by 32.34 per cent (causing the share of
trade with the EFTA countries to fall). However, both for imports and exports, Finland and Russia
remain Estonia’s principal trading partners.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Both passenger and freight traffic have followed the trend set by the Estonian economy.
Consequently, the volume of traffic fell in 1994.

Passenger traffic
The volume of public transport has not fallen evenly across all modes. In the maritime and airtransport sectors, for example, the volume of passenger traffic has been growing since the beginningof the decade. The overall trend, however, is negative. Since 1992, the total volume of traffic(measured by number of passengers) has fallen by approximately 40 per cent. The number ofpassengers transported via the inland waterways has dropped below the 1 million mark. However, thereduction in the number of passengers using this mode is not necessarily the result of the poor
economic situation, since the inland waterways have never occupied more than a negligible share of
the Estonian transport market.

Passengers transported by Estonian companies, 1992-95
Millions

Total **
Passenger-kilometres
Of which international““ (passenger-km)

1992
557.7
5 148.0
5.1
1 087.01993
439.6
4 275.0
3.5
931.0

1994
307.2
3 664.0
3.3
866.0

1995*
284.1
3 251.0
3.2
790.0* Estimated.
** Includes inland waterways traffic.

The volume of passenger traffic has suffered as a result of higher fares in the public transport
sector and the growing number of private cars.

104

Road transport
Public road transport
Millions

Public road transport
Passenger-km
Of which international““(passenger-km)
Of which local““(passenger-km)
Of which tramway/trolley““(passenger-km)
*

1992
348.3
3 078.0
0.9
253.0
347.4
2 825.0
191.3
717

1993
284.6
2 570.0
0.4
246.0
284.2
2 324.0
135.5
508.0

1994
216.0
2 348.00.3
286.0
176.9 *
947.0 *
69.8 *
201.0 *

1995
227.0
2 468.0
0.4
340.0
175.0
937.0
67.0
261.0

As of 1 January 1994, a different method has been used to calculate volume of municipal public
transport in Tallinn; the monthly ticket now represents 75 journeys on average, rather than 120 as
before.

Average daily traffic on the Tallinn-Pärnu-Ikla route has fallen from 8 900 vehicles per day
around Tallinn and 1 500 around the Estonian border in 1992 to 7 500 and 800 vehicles per day,respectively, in 1993.
Between 1990 and 1993, the level of domestic traffic (passenger and freight) in the Baltic states
experienced a significant drop, despite the rise in car ownership. The drop was the result of higher oil
prices, which rose by a factor of seven, whereas prices generally rose by a factor of three or four.
According to forecasts produced for the “Via Baltica” study, urban traffic on the main
thoroughfares in Tallinn is expected to grow by 41 per cent between 1990 and 2000, and by a further
99 per cent between 2000 and 2015. The number of private cars has more than doubled during thelast decade:Private cars per 1 000 inhabitants
1980
1985
1990
1992
1994

86
115
154
186
226

On 1 January 1994, the motorised vehicle fleet was broken down as follows:

Private cars
Buses and coaches

1991
261 0868 628

1992
283 469
8 400

105

1993
317 4258 663

1994
337 812
6 340

The motorised vehicle fleet is therefore growing by between 8 and 10 per cent each year.
In 1992, the average distance covered by private cars was 7 000 km per year. Taken together,private cars, buses and coaches account for 20 billion passenger-kilometres a year. In 1992,
international coach lines transported 900 000 passengers.
Improvements in domestic and international bus (and coach) lines should lead to a slightincrease in the number of passengers. However, growth is expected to be slow, owing to the closureof unprofitable lines and the introduction of higher fares.
Rail transport
Rail transport
Millions

Rail passengers
Passenger-km
Of which international““ (in passenger-km)

1992
15.8
950.0
2.8
449.0

1993
16.7
722.0
1.3
228.0

1994
11.6
537.0
0.9
147.0

1995
8.8
421.0
0.8
102.0

Among the reasons for the decline in rail traffic are improvements in the system for obtaining
visas, the weakening of economic ties with the CIS, and the increase in the car ownership rate.
Maritime transport
Maritime transport
Millions

Passengers - maritime transport
Passenger-km
Of which international““ (passenger-km)

1992
2.1
211.0
1.3
201.0

1993
2.6
247.0
1.7
233.0

1994
2.8
286.0
1.9
275.0

1995
3.1
244.0
2.0
232.0

More than 500 vessels are registered in Estonia. The growth in the number of passengers islargely due to the very rapid development of economic relations with Sweden, Finland and Germany,in particular, and with European countries in general.
The Tallinn-Helsinki route, the most popular crossing, transported 1.5 million passengers in1992 and 2.2 million in 1994. Next, in terms of the volume of traffic, is the Tallinn-Stockholm
crossing with 286 000 passengers in 1993 and 306 000 in 1994. On both these crossings, the numberof passengers rose by 36 per cent between 1991 and 1992 and the number of vehicles transported by afactor of 3.5.

106

In spite of a slight drop in the number of passengers as a result of the “Estonia” ferry disaster,traffic seems to have picked up in 1995.
Air transport
Air transport by Estonian airlines
Millions

Air passengers (thousands)
Passenger-km
Of which international““(passenger-km)

1992
174.5
191.0
123.2
184.0

1993
150.0
228.0
122.0
224.0

1994
175.5
159.0
170.5
158.0

1995
184.0
138.0
180.0
137.0

Estonia has 94 aeroplanes registered. Forecasts for 1994 show 330 000 passengers passing
through Tallinn airport (compared with 77 000 in 1993). Air transport generally, all types of traffictaken together, is expected to continue growing in 1995. It seems that flight destinations havechanged, since international traffic in passenger-km is decreasing while the total number ofpassengers is increasing.

Freight traffic
The downward trend in freight traffic mirrors the decline in the national economy but is evenmore acute. Over the past few years, the volume of freight traffic has fallen very sharply (down36.5 per cent between 1992 and 1993), although the drop applies only to freight carried by national
operators. In 1995, the total volume of goods transported in tonne-km is lower than in 1992. Figures
are however given for national companies only. It would appear that following the Soviet Union’s
loss of influence, foreign operators, based in Finland for example, have been able to develop traffic incertain goods for import or export.

Freight transported by Estonian transport companies, 1992-95
Million tonnes

Total volume of goods transported**t-km
Of which international““ (t-km)
*
**

1992
66.9
26 492.0
19.2
24 301.0

Estimated.
Including traffic by air and inland waterways.

107

1993
42.5
30 891.0
22.2
29 829.0

1994
40.6
31 948.0
20.0
30 893.0

1995*
37.2
21 476.0
19
20 497.0

Road transport
Road traffic
Million tonnes
1992
33.9
1 457.00.5
307.0

Volume of goods transported
In t-km
Of which international““ (t-km)1993
11.4
1 056.0
0.8
554.0

1994
12.1
1 415.0
1.2
897.0

1995
9.0
1 549.0
1.2
1 100.0

Fleet of motorised vehicles, 1 January 1994
Type of vehicle
LorriesSpecial vehicles and vans
Trailers, semi-trailers

1991
64 93712 1201992
62 728
11 83036 142

1993
62 97111 11837 4051994
53 733n.a.
n.a.

According to vehicle counts carried out in 1992 on the Estonian section of the Via Baltica, heavy
goods vehicles accounted for 22 per cent of all vehicles. Half the lorries weighed less than 4 tonnes,
and only 8 per cent weighed more than 12. Efficiency is poor, given that nearly 20 per cent of thelorries included in the survey were empty. Moreover, the total volume of goods transported
decreased in 1995 whereas traffic in t-km increased.

Share of heavy goods vehicles in the fleet of motorised vehicles
Percentage
Type of vehicle
Lorries
Semi-trailers
Buses and coaches

1995
14
5
8

2000
12
5
4

2015
13
5
2

As a result of the increase in the price of petroleum products, traffic growth is relatively limited,
except on the Via Baltica, where transit traffic rose by more than 500 per cent between 1988 and1992. In 1992, 0.9 million tonnes of goods were transported internationally by road. In 1990, roadfreight transport in the Baltic states accounted for less than 20 per cent of total tonne-kilometres.
Freight traffic by road can be expected to quadruple over the next 20 years, as 50 per cent of rail
traffic is transferred to the road sector and as a result of the demand for freight traffic between theNordic countries and central and southern Europe.

108

Rail transport
Rail traffic trends
Million tonnes

Volume of goods transported
t-km
Of which international traffic““(t-km)Of which transit traffic““(t-km)

1992
27.2
3 646.0
13.5
2 919.0
6.3
1 174.0

1993
24.2
38.22
15.6
3 274.0
9.8
2 430.0

1994
22.6
3 377.0
13.8
2 850.0
8.9
2 133.0

1995
21.6
3 235.0
13.5
2 800.0
8.8
2 200.0

The drop in freight traffic by rail is largely due to the discontinuation or reduction in bulk transit
traffic to and from the CIS since 1993 (down 10 per cent). Most rail traffic is transit traffic generated
by the ports. The port of Tallinn accounts for 83 per cent of all traffic through Estonian ports.
Maritime transport
Maritime transport by Estonian shipping companies
Million tonnes

Volume of goods transported
t-km
Of which international““ (t-km)1992
5.7
21 388.0
4.8
21 375.0

1993
6.8
26 012.0
5.9
26 001.0

1994
5.7
27 154.0
5.0
27 145.0

1995
4.0
16 316.0
3.1
16 305.0

In 1992 the Estonian merchant navy transported 4.8 million tonnes in international traffic. This
figure also represents average traffic for the period 1992-95 after a year of heavy traffic in 1993. In
1994, Estonian ports handled approximately 12 million tonnes of freight, which represented a slight
drop from the previous year (once again due to the reduction in transit traffic from the CIS,
particularly Russia).
Estonian ports hope that in 1995 and the years ahead they will be required to handle new flowsof transit goods from Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus.
Air transport and inland waterways
The volume of goods transported by air and the inland waterways is under 1 million tonne-km
per year, despite a slight increase in the volume of inland waterways traffic in 1994.

109

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment
Thanks to international funds granted to Estonia since 1992, the first calls for bids will belaunched for infrastructure projects selected mainly by the EBRD and the World Bank. The projects
largely involve the modernisation (or replacement) of transport infrastructure, in particular ports androads. Foreign aid has mainly taken the form of training, technical support and research activities.
There will be no significant change in the length of the transport network in the period up to
2015. However, the quality of the network will be improved. Roads will be upgraded to a minimumof two lanes with a width of 9 m.

Air transport infrastructure
Estonian Airport carried out modernisation work on Tallinn airport in 1995. A loan from the
EBRD was used to extend and renew the runway. A loan of ECU 20 million from the European
Investment Bank is being used for a project currently under way (1994-97) to update the air traffic
control system.

Road infrastructure
The road network is 14 811 km long (6 453 km of primary roads), with a density of
0.33 km/km². There are a number of missing links, for example:−−

Tallinn-Novgorod ;Tallinn-Ostrov (towards Moscow).

A road renewal project is currently underway (1995-96), funded through a $12 million loan fromthe World Bank. New sections of motorway will be built on the main routes (Tallinn-Tartu,
Tallinn-Pärnu) and the rest of the network will be upgraded. The World Bank has also issued$3 million for the purchase of tyres and spare parts for vehicles used for public transport .
Infrastructure projects not on the main corridors
Two key projects launched at national level have been temporarily halted:−−

The first project concerns the Ruu-Aaspere section of the route between Tallinn and Narva.
The plan is to upgrade a 50 km stretch of a two-lane road to a motorway, at a total cost of$21 million. Upgrading work began in 1985. The project then came to a halt, but work wasresumed on 1 January 1996. So far, the project has cost $2 million.
The second concerns the Yuri-Aruvalla section of the Tallinn-Tartu-Voru-Luhamaa route.
The plan is to upgrade a 5 km stretch of a two-lane road to a motorway, at a total cost of$6 million. By 1 January 1996, $0.8 million had been spent on the project since its launch
in 1990.

110Railway infrastructure
The rail network totals 1 026 km of line, representing a density of 0.023 km/km². A new railway
line for passengers travelling between Tallinn and Berlin, via Riga, Vilnius and Warsaw, wasscheduled to be opened in May 1993.
Diesel locomotives are currently being modernised thanks to a $7.5 million loan from theWorld Bank and the Japanese Import-Export Bank.
Infrastructure projects not on the main corridors
Two key infrastructure projects have been launched at national level outside the main corridors:−−

The first project concerns the Tallinn-Tapa-Narva-St Petersburg line. The plan is to upgrade
210 km of track along the Estonian section of this line, at an estimated cost of $11 million.
The aim of the project is to facilitate transit services of goods to Russia (70 per cent of suchtraffic travels on this line).
The second concerns the Tallinn-Tapa-Tartu-Kiliima-Petseri-Moscow line. No further
information is available on this project, which also aims to facilitate transit services of goods
to Russia. This line accounts for the remaining 30 per cent of transit traffic to Russia.

Maritime infrastructure
Tallinn has three deep-water, ice-free ports, with a total annual capacity of 14 million tonnes offreight and 2 million passengers. The site of the new ferry terminal has yet to be decided. The choice
is between the existing port in Tallinn or the new port of Maardu, 15 km east of Tallinn.
In April 1993, the European Community and the G 24 “Transport” group approved inclusion of
the Via Baltica route (193 km in Estonia and an 80 km ferry crossing between Tallinn et Helsinki) in
the list of top priority transport corridors in the former Eastern Europe .
A dry bulk terminal is currently being built in the port of Muuga. The work (1994-97) is funded
by a loan of ECU 15 million from the European Investment Bank.

Question 3: Capacity problems
In 1993, the journey between Tallinn and Helsinki took between four and a half hours for private
cars and seven hours for heavy goods vehicles, excluding the time spent waiting for the ferry.
Although the level of induced traffic would be very high if the journey time between the two cities
could be cut to under three hours, there has been no significant improvement in the duration of thecrossing since 1993.
It can take up to two hours for heavy goods vehicles on the Via Baltica to cross the Latvian
border, and the situation is getting worse as the volume of traffic increases. It now takes longer tocross Tallinn and Pärnu. Road maintenance needs to be improved, particularly in winter, in order tomaintain road capacity.

111

The inexperience of new drivers has led to an increase in the number of people killed in roadaccidents (up 40 per cent between 1985 et 1991). The number of fatalities has gone up more quickly
than the number of accidents.

Traffic accidents, 1990-94

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Accidents
2 099
1 965
1 167
1 317
1 584

Fatalities
436
491
287
321
364

Casualties
2 379
2 175
1 289
1 502
1 832

Question 4: Measures
Estonian transport policy is based on a number of socio-economic objectives:
−
−
−

−

to enable all physical and legal persons to use the public road network, in accordance withnational law;
to develop transport services throughout Estonia in response to public needs in terms of
capacity, quality and respect for the environment;
to increase the share of transport GDP in national GDP by developing transport services toinclude transit traffic, and by making greater use of the existing road network for internationaltraffic;
to enhance the capacity of Estonia to compete on the world market.

Priority must be given to meeting the needs of (national) transport users. The aims of the present
transition phase are:−−−to restructure the transport sector;
to prevent capacity losses in the case of strategic transport modes (public road and railtransport and maritime transport);
to bring the overall quality of the transport system and infrastructure up to the same standard
as that of EU member states.

A number of measures will have to be taken in order to achieve these aims. The Estonian
government has decided to prioritise:−−−−

improving the capacity and safety of traffic on the east-west corridor ;developing the port of Tallinn;
modernising Tallinn airport in accordance with the rules laid down by the ICAO;
rebuilding the main north-south and east-west roads.

112

REFERENCES

Commission of the European Communities, DG I, PHARE Programme (Estonia), Draft Commission
Decision of 1993, Financing Proposal, Annex 1 : Institutional Assessment, Annex 2 : Estonian
Economy and Foreign Trade.
Economic development services, “Estonia - Promises and Risks” (1994), Economic and commercial
adviser in Finland and Estonia, Helsinki, 20 November 1993.
Estonian Road Administration, “Estonian Roads 1993/94”, Riigi Maanteeamet.
Finnish Ministry of Transport & Communications, “Via Baltica Feasibility Study: Nordic Project
Fund/Nordic Investment Bank, EBRD, Viatek, SweRoad, August 1993.
Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications, Viatek Group , VTT Technical Research Center,“North-eastern Europe Transportation Study: Preliminary Phase, 1993”, carried out on behalf ofthe Economic Commission for Europe TRANS/WP5.
Flash Estonia, “Economic and commercial data”, Economic development services Estonia,
August†1994.
Flash Estonia, “Economic and commercial data”, Economic development services in Estonia,
September 1994.
Republic of Lithuania, Ministry of Transport, “Report on the Meeting of the Ministers of Transport of
the three Baltic states, held in Vilnius on 29 and 30 July 1993 with the participation ofrepresentatives from EC DG VII, EBRD, World Bank and G-24”, Vilnius, August 1993.

113

FINLAND
Area: 338 100 km²
Population: 5 117 000

From 1991 to 1995, a deep economic recession resulted in an overall reduction of about
15 per cent in GNP and in consumption. A bank crisis and rising unemployment obliged thegovernment to reduce expenditures and increase borrowing to finance the budget deficit. Also during
this period, profound social changes shook the foundations of the “welfare state”.
The socio-economic changes have been so far-reaching that it is difficult to determine trends thatwould make it possible to calculate traffic forecasts. Those made in the late 1980s (a stable decadewith economic growth) were overly optimistic. More recent forecasts include alternative scenarios.
Different factors affecting the development of society are taken into account, such as environmental
and demographic parameters.
The forecasting methods, in particular those of the Finish National Road Administration, makethe following assumptions:
−
−
−
−
−

annual GDP growth of 2.7 per cent until 2005 for the industrialised countries;
annual growth of Finnish GDP of 3.5 per cent between 1995 and 1999; 3 per cent between
2000 and 2005; 2 per cent between 2006 and 2020;
annual growth of household income, 0.5 per cent less than that of GDP;a population increase of 2 per cent over the period, accompanied by growth in the active
population until 2010, followed by a fairly rapid decline between 2010 and 2020;
ageing of the population and an increase of 0.5 per cent a year in the number of households,
or 14 per cent by 2005.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Studies carried out in Finland forecast an annual increase in transport expenditure of 5 per centbetween 1995 and 2000, or a higher growth rate than that of national GDP. As of the year 2000,
transport should grow at the same rate as GDP.
Total passenger traffic, all modes taken together, should increase by 30 per cent by the year
2000. In 1994, Finns spent on average 76 minutes a day travelling and covered 50 km. Public
transport accounted for 21 per cent of total passenger kilometrage.

115

Total domestic freight traffic, all modes taken together, is expected to grow by 42 per cent involume terms between 1994 and the year 2000 and international and transit traffic by 30 per cent.
The modal breakdown should remain much the same.

Figure 1. Traffic in Finland by transport modes in 1995
%

%

100

100
Road
Rail

90

Water

90

Air

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10
0

0
Domestic passengers

Domestic freight

International freightSource: ECMT.

There is little information about future trends by mode and type of traffic.
Transport costs in 1993 were about FIM 87 billion and almost 12 per cent of the turnover offirms. This amount is two to three times greater than that of Finland’s principal EU competitors. If
Finland is to be competitive, its transport sector will have to be more efficient than that of other
European countries.

Road transport
Between 1980 and 1990, in terms of kilometres covered on the main roads, traffic increased by
55 per cent. The economic crisis of the early 1990s reduced this traffic by 3 per cent a year. Between
1994 and 2000, the annual kilometrage is expected to grow by 19 per cent and thus reach
19 billion km on the main roads of the public network, instead of the 21 billion forecast before thecrisis. The 20 billion km threshold is now expected to be crossed in 2010. By that date, mobility
growth should be 38 per cent, thereby raising annual kilometrage to 22 billion. The big towns of thesouth of the country will be affected first.

116

Passenger traffic
Road traffic accounts for 93 per cent of total domestic passenger kilometrage. In terms ofpassenger-km, rural roads account for 65 per cent and urban roads (streets) for 28 per cent. Forecast
studies indicate that this traffic will grow by 2.5 per cent a year over the period 1996-2000.
For international traffic, roads account for 12.8 million passengers out of a total of 30.3 million,
or a market share of 40.2 per cent.
Freight traffic
The share of road freight transport is large when compared to figures for many other European
countries. In 1994, in terms of tonne-km, road transport accounted for 65 per cent of domestic trafficand only 4 per cent of international tonnage (i.e. 2.9 million tonnes out of a total of 78.5 million
tonnes). This figure does not take account of the volume of transit traffic (1 million tonnes for roadtraffic).

Rail transport
Passenger traffic
Rail transport is most important for long-distance passenger travel between the outlying regions.
Its share of long-distance public transport is 64 per cent. However, in volume terms, the urban andsuburban services in the Helsinki area account for the greater part of rail traffic.
In 1995, total traffic volume was 11 million passengers. In 2010, according to the forecasts, thetraffic volume should reach 15-18 million passengers, notably thanks to the introduction ofhigh-speed trains. At present, VR (Finnish Railways) accounts for 4.7 per cent of total domestic
passenger-km (private and public transport) and 0.3 per cent of total international passengers(i.e. 0.1 million passengers out of 30.3 million). Finland and Russia have developed a joint
programme for a high-speed line. Substantial growth in the number of passengers travelling by rail
between Helsinki and Saint Petersburg is thus expected (growth was already 15 per cent between
1992 and 1994).
Freight traffic
The railways account for 26.2 per cent of tonne-km in domestic traffic and 11.5 per cent of totalinternational freight tonnage, or 9.1 million tonnes out of 78.5 million (all modes together). This
figure does not take account of the volume of freight in transit, which is in fact large. In 1994, rail
and water-borne transport handled 6 million tonnes of transit freight.
Rail remains the main transport mode for raw materials and the output of heavy industry. The
share of the domestic freight market travelling by rail has increased.
Entry in the European Union and changes in Russia and the Baltic countries have permitted the
VR to increase its share of international east-west rail traffic. Traffic with Russia grew 15 per centbetween 1992 and 1994, and should continue to grow until 2010.

117

Inland waterway and maritime transport
Passenger traffic
For domestic passenger transport, the share of the water-borne traffic is negligible, with only
0.2 per cent of total passenger-km. For international traffic, instead, it accounts for 41.3 per cent of
total passengers carried (or 12.5 million out of 30.3 million). In 1995, 8.9 million passengers
travelled between Finland and Sweden and 4 million between Finland and Estonia. Passenger traffic
to Estonia increased by 80 per cent in 1995.
Freight traffic
For international traffic, 85 per cent of freight goes by sea: 66.5 million tonnes, excluding transit
cargoes, out of a total of 78.5 million. This is possible owing to the existence of 23 ports equippedwith icebreakers. The share of domestic traffic is much lower, at 8.7 per cent of total tonne-km. It ismainly coastal navigation (92 per cent of sea-borne tonne-km). The main export ports are: Hamina,
Kotka, Sköldvik, Helsinki and Rayma, and the main import ports are Sköldvik, Helsinki, Nantali,
Raahe and Pori.
In 1994, the ferries, which carry trains and road vehicles, transported 6.6 million tonnes, or
8.4 per cent of the total 78.5 million tonnes (all modes together).

Air transport
Passenger traffic
A high proportion of total passengers in transit via Finland are air passengers. Air traffic
accounts for 16.2 per cent of total international traffic, with 4.9 million passengers. In domestictransport its share of total traffic is only 1.4 per cent of total passenger-km.
Freight traffic
The share of domestic freight traffic by air is only 0.01 per cent of domestic traffic in tonne-km.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
Road infrastructures
The Finnish Road Administration is responsible for the maintenance and development of thecountry’s public road network. The municipalities are responsible for the construction of urban andinterurban roads. Maintenance co-operatives are responsible for maintaining private roads(approximately 280 000 km).
As of 1 January 1995, there were about 78 300 km of public roads, of which 12 800 km of main
roads (or 16 per cent of the network). In six years, 2 100 km of roads have been built, of which
1
1 400 km of additional main roads; 200 km of motorway (and semi-motorway ) were opened in recent
years, bringing the total motorway network to 600 km.
118

Public roads are classified as:−−−−class I main roads;
class II main roads;
regional roads;
connecting roads.

Some 35 per cent of road transport takes place in winter. Studded tyres are permitted despite
their abrasive effects on road surfaces. Driving conditions and road safety have improved with theuse of better meteorological information systems. The costs of keeping roads open in winter amounts
to 66 per cent of total road maintenance costs.
By 2010, Finland should have 1 250 km of motorways, according to the studies carried out by
the Road Administration on Finland’s national objectives (the first of which is to ensure smoothtraffic flow even under very difficult weather conditions, in particular thanks to the modernisation ofroad surfaces). Finland gave as priority projects (included in the TEN), the work under way on thefollowing routes (see the map on Finland’s main road projects 1997):
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

E18, main road 1, construction of a new motorway, to be ready in 1998, on the section
Turku-Paimio: FIM 980 million;
E12, main road 3, construction of a new motorway between 1994 and 2002 on the
Hämeenlinna-Kulju section: FIM 1 200 million;
Main road 4, construction of a semi-motorway, between 1993 and 1997, on the section
Oulu-Ii: FIM 420 million;
Main road 6, construction, between 1994 and 1998, of a new motorway bypass in Imatra:
FIM 280 million;
E18, main road 7, construction of a semi-motorway, between 1996 and 1998 on the section
Koskenkylä-Loviisa: FIM 120 million;
Main road 17, construction of a four lane road, between 1996 and 1998, on the
Joensuu-Ylämylly section: FIM 105 million;
E18, main road 45, construction of an intersection, between 1996 and 1998 in Pakinkylä,
Helsinki: FIM 150 million;
E18, main road 1, construction of a new motorway, between 1997 and 2003, on the section
Paimio-Muurla: FIM 890 million;
Main road 4, addition of a semi-motorway to a motorway, to start in 1997 on the section
Järvenpää-Lahti: FIM 600 million, to be done with private money (a shadow toll project,
DBFO).

Rail infrastructures
The Finnish Rail Administration, under the supervision of the Finnish Ministry of Transport, is
responsible for managing the infrastructures. Certain lines are completely private, however, andbelong to ports or industrial enterprises.
At present, 80 per cent of the Finnish population live in towns connected to the rail
network. The VR network has been able to adapt to the rather particular regional structure of
the country. The Finnish mainline network (freight and passenger) totals 5 660 km, of which over119

90 per cent is single track. Only 37 per cent of the rail network, or 2 073 km, are electrified, but
electric trains carry 65 per cent of the total traffic.
The introduction of fast trains has made it possible to reduce average rail trip times by 30 to40 per cent.
As of autumn 1995, the line between Helsinki and Turku was upgraded to take Pendolino S220
high-speed trains. This work does not come under the Nordic Triangle project. The upgrading of theHelsinki-Tampere line will permit high-speed train services (220 km/h).
The railway projects under way (see the map on Finland’s main railway projects in 1997) are on
the following routes :
−
−
−
−
−

Vainikkala-Kouvola-Kotka-Hamina, elimination of the level crossings;
upgrading of the Helsinki-Tampere rail link to high-speed standard, to be ready in 2004:
FIM 850 million;
electrification of the line linking Tampere to Pori and Rauma (1995-1999): FIM 292 million;
upgrading of the Helsinki-Turku line to be ready in 1998: FIM 644 million;
electrification of the line linking Toijala to Turku between 1997 and 2000: FIM 183 million.

These projects will improve the capacity of the rail network as a whole as well as its integration
into the environment. These projects should also make it possible to increase the axle load to
25 tonnes. The planned dates for the opening of all these infrastructures are likely to change owing tofinancing problems.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Road
The volume of road traffic in Finland remains fairly modest as compared with the average traffic
in other European Union countries. Peak-hour traffic jams are rare and occur mainly in the capitaland on the main roads of the other big towns. Every year 27 million km are covered on the main road
network, or 60 per cent of total road traffic. In 1994, there were 3 444 accidents (46 per cent of total
accidents), with 337 deaths. In 2010, traffic on the main roads is expected to be 63 per cent of thetotal road traffic.
Traffic jams and queues at the weekend have increased. In 1993, weekend congestion was
estimated at 880 km on the main roads, or an increase of 22 per cent as compared with 1988, andqueues at 1 900 km, or 3 per cent more than in 1988. The forecasts (made on the basis of present
capacity) for 2010 are worrying: 1 900 km of congestion and 2 400 km of queues on the main road
network (see the map on roads with high traffic flows in relation to capacity 1997-2010).

Question 4: Measures
The Ministry of Transport has adopted a 14-point programme aimed at reducing the negative
effects of transport on the environment.

120

Road transport
Road maintenance gives priority to ensuring that road remain practicable. Special attention is
given to traffic safety as well as to safety related to winter maintenance and to road surface
conditions. The importance of environmental aspects is increasing.
According to an evaluation issued by the Road Administration, Finland will have some 1 250 km
of motorway by the year 2010. About half already exists.

Rail transport
The most important objective of railway construction and maintenance for the next few years is
to make the existing railway network correspond to current transport needs and to keep investments
for development arising from increased transport demand under control.
It is also necessary to increase capacity on the main railway routes in southern Finland and on
local lines in the Helsinki area.
Traffic safety will be improved by safety equipment and by increasing the amount of remotecontrol systems. The most important railway stretches will be equipped with automatic protection
systems. Level crossings are to be eliminated from railways used to transport dangerous substancesor earmarked for fast passenger traffic.
Adverse environmental effects will be alleviated by continuing electrification, which also has
rationalisation benefits. The introduction of new fast rail traffic also calls for electrification. Fast
passenger traffic in southern Finland is being developed in line with the improvements in thefundamental railway network (see the map on Service levels of Finland’s railway network in 2010).

Inland waterway and maritime transport
The technical quality and the safety of the waterways will be improved by developing safety
equipment and by constructing a DGPS satellite positioning system which covers the entire waterwaysystem.
Icebreaker operations assist traffic to ports in winter so that industrial transport needs can behandled regularly and without unreasonable delays.
The competitiveness and the efficiency of the ports and the port operations are being promoted.
The cargo port in the capital area is the largest development project and will eventually replace
Helsinki’s present cargo ports.
Air transport
Finland’s airports have a uniform infrastructure that supports its regional policies. This
infrastructure is to be further developed to meet future demand. Air traffic growth calls for enhanced
air navigation services. The replacement of the country’s entire air navigation system is under way.

121

An important new air route is the so-called Transpolar Route, which will shorten the flight timefrom western Europe to the Far East.
Airport development is focused on Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, where terminal capacity is being
increased by the construction of a “middle” terminal.

Note

1.

A semi-motorway is a road which in a first phase has two single carriageways with grade
separations at intersections, as with a motorway. If traffic increases, these roads can easily bemade into full motorways because the necessary width is already allowed for.

122

Map 1. Finland’s main road projects 1997

1. Hämeenlinna-Kulju motorway
2. Oulu-Li semi-motorway
3. Joensuu-Ylämylly 4-lane road
4. Imatra bypass
5. Turku-Muurla motorway
6. Kemi-Tornio motorway
7. Koskenkylä-Loviisa semi-motorway
8. Järvenpää-Lahti motorway

Rovaniemi
6

Kemi

Main roads
Road project

2

Oulu

Kajaani

KokkolaVaasa
KuopioJoensuu
3

Jyväskylä

TamperePori

1

Mikkeli
Imatra4

Lahti
8

Hämeenlinna
Turku

Loviisa
7

5
PorvooHelsinki

Source: ECMT.

123

Kotka

Map 2. Finland’s main railway projects 1997

1. Vainikkala-Kouvola-Kotka-Hamina,
elimination of crossings
2. Helsinki-Tampere, upgrading
3. Tampere-Pori-Rauma, electrification
4. Helsinki-Turku, upgrading
5. Toijala-Turku, electrification

Rovaniemi

Oulu

Kajaani

KokkolaJoensuu

Seinäjoki

Jyväskylä
Mikkeli3

PoriTampere
Lahti
5

1

2

Turku
4

Kotka
Helsinki

Source: ECMT.

124

ImatraKouvolaMap 3. Roads with high traffic flows in relation to capacity 1997-2010

Main roads
Roads forecasted to haveat least 100 hours
of congested or queued traffic(HCM E&F-level) every year

Rovaniemi

Kemi

Oulu

Kajaani

KokkolaVaasa
KuopioJoensuu
Jyväskylä

MikkeliPoriTampereImatra

Lahti
Loviisa
Turku

Kotka
Helsinki

Source: ECMT.

125

Map 4. Service levels of Finland’s railway network in 2010

Electrified, 2-track, for passenger(140-220 km/h) and goods transport(100-120 km/h), axle load 25 ton.
Electrified, for passenger(140-220 and 120-140 km/h)
and goods transport (60-120 km/h),axle load 22.5-25 ton.

Rovaniemi

Mainly for goods transport (60-100 km/h);
as a connection to main lines forpassenger transport (60-120 km/h),axle load 22.5-(25) ton.

Oulu

Only for goods transport(40-80 km/h), axle load(16)-20-(22.5) ton.

Kajaani

KokkolaJoensuu

Seinäjoki
Jyväskylä

MikkeliPoriTampere
Lahti

Turku

Kotka
Helsinki

Source: ECMT.

126

ImatraKouvola

FRANCE
Area: 551 000 km²
Population: 58 300 000

Statistics for the period 1986-95 are taken from the 33rd Report of the National Accounts
Committee for Transport or from earlier reports. Figures for the past three years are provisional. The
forecasts are generally taken from the central (medium growth) scenario on which themacroeconomic framework for forecasts to the year 2015 was based.
Between 1986 and 1995, market GDP in current francs rose from FF 4 224 billion toFF 6 260 billion. This 48 per cent increase represents annual growth of 4 per cent. Over the same
period, transport sector value added in current francs increased by 34 per cent from FF 195 billion to
FF 262 billion, for an annual growth rate of 3 per cent, i.e. one point less than market GDP.
In 1995, GDP was 2.5 per cent higher than in the previous year. At the same time, motorway
traffic was 2 per cent higher than 1994, with HGV traffic up 3.6 per cent and light vehicle traffic up
1.6 per cent.
The overall growth in the transport sector masks enormous disparities. In the maritime transport
sector, value added plummeted and has actually declined by more than 60 per cent over the past ten
years. In contrast, growth in ancillary transport services outstripped that of traded GDP, increasing
by more than 50 per cent over the past ten years.
Ancillary services increased their share by more than four percentage points, while rail’s sharedeclined by almost four points. However, the results for rail reflect the adverse impact of the monthlong strike in 1995.

127

Figure 1. Trends in share of transport industry value-added by sector in 1986 and 1995
In percentage

Ancillary services

Air

Maritime

Inland waterway
Passenger transportby roadFreight transportby road
1995
1986

Rail

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: ECMT.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Methods
For the purposes of establishing infrastructure investment programmes, the central departmentsof the Ministry for Transport were asked to produce joint projections to the year 2015. These are now
being used as the basis for the five transport infrastructure master plans provided for under the
Regional Planning and Development Policy Guidelines Act of 4 February 1995.
France’s economic trend forecasts are based on the DIVA model developed by BIPE Conseil, a
private consultancy firm. The model considers three potential development scenarios for France inthe context of the world economy. The main assumptions and findings of the studies (first conducted
in 1994, then updated to the year 2015 in 1996) are as follows:− globalised economy (the “world” scenario);− triad economy (economy centred around three large economic areas: Europe, United States
and Japan and their satellite countries (the “Europe” scenario);− isolationist economy (the “France” scenario).

128

The “world” scenario− Competitive environment: monopolistic (product differentiation, multinationals, flexible
organisation).
− Growth: maximum at world level, highly cyclical. France gets off to a slow start with heavy
restructuring.
− Job sharing: flexibility, low costs, high productivity gains, highly divisive(unemployed/employed).
− Income/spending: wide gap between the unemployed and the employed. Wages low, income
from property high.
− Central government: company taxes lower, household taxes higher, capital highly mobile,interest rates high. Minimum income assistance for the unemployed.
Foreign trade growth rates in France are extremely high. Very high productivity gains are
required. Sectoral growth rates are generally in line with global economic growth rates.
The “Europe” scenario
This is the main development scenario in France.
− Competitive environment: large European oligopolies, regulated by the Community. The
distribution sector is dominant, although growth rates start to slow after 2000 (compared withthe “world” scenario).
− Growth: lower than in the “world” scenario, but less cyclical. Growth initiatives at European
level. Risk of France being ousted from the major Asian markets.
− Job sharing: in a European framework. Job market picks up after economic recovery.
Shorter working hours, development of locally based services, taxation of social security
benefits. Unemployment figures down, number of households continues to increase.
− Income/spending: gap narrows. “Prudent”, cost-conscious spending.
− Central government: single European currency, long-term savings.
Spatial organisation is based on the “urban network” pattern. The role of the Ile-de-France area
is more balanced. Centralisation of companies’ European operations (multinational holding
companies) and decentralisation of French management.
Growth is concentrated primarily in the services sector (particularly on the domestic market).
Some industries (the electrical, electronics, chemical and parachemical industries) are expanding at
home and abroad, exports by French specialist industries (agro-food and aero-engineering) are higher,
and there are some zero growth sectors (textile, timber, leather). Intermediate sectors (iron and steel,aluminium, foundries) are stable.
The “France” scenario (isolationist scenario)− Competitive environment: public monopolies, quotas and protectionist tariffs. Downturn inexport businesses.
− Growth: low, productivity low. Risk of EU regulations and legislation being flouted.
− Job sharing: job protection. Working hours reduced by the administration, not a great deal ofgrowth in services, full employment but low income and hours.

129

− Income/spending: purchasing power slightly up. Spending on luxury items low, no great
incentive for long-term savings. Number of households stable (trend towards lesscohabitation stopped).
− Central government: more government intervention. Regular depreciation of the Frenchfranc.
Two trends dominate spatial organisation: increasing concentration around Paris and Lyons(natural economic trend), and at the same time mandatory decentralisation to ensure an even spread ofjobs throughout the country.
The method is based on two econometric projections. The models used by the SES (formerlyOEST) attempt to correlate traffic trends with a number of explanatory variables:− macroeconomic variables;− the transport regulatory policy variables;− the infrastructure supply variables.
As it had been observed that the macro economy, regulatory policy and infrastructure supply
may not move together, even if they are not interdependent, it was decided to opt for a medium
growth scenario and then to examine variants of that scenario when projections called for someadjustment to one set of assumptions or another.
The medium scenario was the DIVA “Europe” scenario (global triad: United States, Europe,
Japan).
Among the macroeconomic assumptions, the two possible variants were the “low growth”
scenario (the DIVA “France” scenario) and the “high growth” scenario (the DIVA “world” scenario).
The assumptions made with regard to “transport regulatory policy” were: gradual market
liberalisation within the EU, a continuing public service obligation and land-use planning. It also
provides for the regulation of competition (both within and between modes) and the gradualinternalisation of external costs.
− In terms of regulations, the consequences would be:• a 24 per cent increase in taxes on diesel fuel;• a 6 per cent increase in road freight transport prices (implementation of the Progress
Contract);• changes to technical standards: increasing the maximum permissible gross laden weight(PGLW) to 44 tonnes (5 per cent reduction in price).
− In terms of transport prices, the consequences would be:• productivity gains in road transport would offset higher payroll costs and petrol prices;• higher taxes reflecting environmental costs would push road transport costs up by
15 per cent;• the real costs of rail transport would be unchanged, while the costs of inland waterway
transport would be 10 per cent higher;• higher costs would have a knock-on effect, pushing rail prices up a further 8 per cent.

130

Variation in transport prices, “Europe” scenario
Increase
1993-2015
15 %
8%
10 %

Road
Rail
Inland waterway

Average annual
increase
0.6 %
0.3 %
0.4 %

− In terms of infrastructure, the consequences were predicated upon the construction of thefollowing infrastructure:• the East and Mediterranean High Speed Train lines;• a Barcelona-Perpignan link;• the Seine-Nord and Rhine-Rhône inland waterway links;• the Channel Tunnel, for freight.
Three scenarios were developed for the period 1993-2015 based on the above assumptions:
medium, liberal and interventionist.

Increase in petrol prices in real terms
Increase in diesel taxes
Axle tax
Maximum PGLW
Progress Contract: price increase

Medium1.5%
24 %LiberalInterventionist

0%

44 t
6%

44 t
6%

58 %
+ FF 13 000
40 t
9%Impact on freight prices
Percentage change

Road freight
Rail freight
Inland waterway freight

Medium
15 %
8%
10 %

Liberal
-3%
0%
10 %

Interventionist
36 %
15 %
10 %

The “infrastructure” assumptions are in fact an additional set of assumptions which predict a
more sustained effort on land transport infrastructure. These “high capacity” assumptions, as they arereferred to, forecast that the rate of motorway construction over the period 1995-2015 will bemaintained after that date (i.e. an additional 765 km of motorway over the whole period) and theconstruction of 120 km of high speed rail track per year (instead of 80 km/year).
When all of these variables are factored in, the results are as follows.

131Average annual growth in freight transport in France
Percentage variation on medium scenario (t-km)

Road freight
Rail freight
Inland waterway freight
Total freight

Mediumscenario
1992-2015
2.4 %
0.8 %
0.8 %
2.1 %

GrowthLow- 0.7 %
- 0.6 %
- 1.0 %
- 0.7 %

High
0.9 %
0.6 %
0.9 %
0.9 %

Liberal0.3 %- 0.4 %
- 0.5 %
0.2 %Regulation

Infra.

Interventionist- 0.4 %
0.4 %0.6 %- 0.2 %

High0.1 %- 0.3 %
0%0%Overall, analysis of the different scenarios shows a higher average growth rate in passenger
traffic flows than in freight flows: 2.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.

Passenger traffic
Billions of passenger-kilometres
Mediumscenario
Lowcapacity
Roads :- motorway
franchises
Rail
Air
Total

407
169
80
19
507

Alternative assumptions (difference compared withmedium scenario in billion passenger-km)
GrowthRegulation
Infra.
High
Low
High
Liberal Interventionist
- 35
- 10
-3
-2
- 40

39
11
2
2
43

3
6
3
1
7

-4
-5
-3
0
-7

14
7
6
-2
19

Freight traffic
Billion tonne-km
MediumRoad
Rail
Inland waterway
Total

scenario
Lowcapacity
280
57.5
8.3
346

Alternative assumptions (difference compared withmedium scenario in billion t-km)
GrowthRegulation
Infra
Low

High

LiberalInterventionist

High

- 4.1
- 7.9
- 1.7
- 50

63
9.1
1.8
74

6
-3
-1
2

-8
4
1
-3

7
-4
0
2

132

Freight traffic
Domestic traffic
Trends in freight traffic in metropolitan France
Million tonne-km
1985
50.1
84.5
57.7
7.6
24.1

SNCF
Road
- of which for hire
Inland waterway
Pipeline

1990
45.8
114.8
86.1
7.2
20.5

1992
44.1
120.0
90.4
6.9
23.4

1993
39.9
115.3
87.5
6.0
23.3

1994
42.4
122.1
93.2
5.6
22.8

1995*
41.2
131.6
101.2
5.9
22.1

* Estimated.
Source: SNCF, DAEI/SES, VNF and DHYCA.

Breakdown by type of traffic in 1994
Percentage

Rail
Road
Inland waterway

Domestic
traffic
67
85
55

Inbound

Outbound

13
8
20

20
7
25

In 1994, raw materials or semi-finished products accounted for almost 60 per cent of the volume(in tonne-km) carried by inland waterway transport, while rail and road transport carried a much morebalanced mix of goods:− raw materials and semi-finished products accounted for 41 per cent of the total freight (intonne-km) carried by rail and for 33 per cent of the volume carried by HGVs;− manufactured goods accounted for 29 per cent of the total carried by rail and 28 per cent of
the total carried by road;− energy products accounted for 10 per cent and 15 per cent of the total carried by rail and road,respectively.
International traffic
France’s foreign trade by mode of transport in 1994 1
Million tonnes

SNCF
Road
Inland waterway
Sea
Air
Other (fixed installations)
Total

European Union
Incoming
Outgoing
7.3
14.2
60.7
59.4
4.0
11.4
32.7
26.7
0.0
0.0
4.4
3.3
109.2
115.0
133

Other countries
Imports
Exports
2.5
3.1
14.0
11.2
4.9
1.7
135.6
29.3
0.2
0.3
19.6
3.7
176.8
49.4

In 1994, French incoming flows were mainly from the “Blue Banana” countries, i.e. the northern
European Union: 26 per cent of flows between France and: Belgium/Luxembourg; 21.5 per cent withGermany; 18 per cent with the United Kingdom; 12.5 per cent with the Netherlands. Outgoing flows
did not follow quite the same pattern, as 16 per cent went to Italy and 11 per cent to Spain. Germany
is still the main destination, accounting for 26.5 per cent of flows by tonnage. Belgium (andLuxembourg) also account for 22 per cent of the tonnage shipped from France.
Over the period 1993-2015, whatever the scenario, trade with foreign countries is expected tocontinue to fuel strong growth in freight flows: the forecasts are for a 4 per cent increase in foreign
trade flows and a 5 per cent increase in transit flows.
Road traffic
Over the period 1986-95, road traffic other than transit traffic increased by 56 per cent. In 1992,
its share of the market was 74.4 per cent and is expected to rise to 81 per cent by 2015. This
assumption takes into account the impact of the Channel Tunnel and the widening of canals.
Rail traffic
Over the period 1986-95, rail transport other than transit traffic declined from50.1 billion tonne km to 41.2 billion, a reduction of 17 per cent.
Over the period 1992-2015, an average annual growth rate of 0.8 per cent is forecast, relatively
low when compared to the total growth in traffic forecast to 2015. In other words, the railways’ shareof the market is expected to decrease from 22.36 per cent in 1992 to 16.63 per cent by 2015.
Moreover, average prices are expected to increase by around 8 per cent over the same period.
Inland waterway traffic
Over the period 1986-95, inland waterway traffic declined by 26 per cent, from
8 billion tonne-km to 5.9 billion.
Forecasts for the period 1992-2015 estimate an annual growth rate of 0.8 per cent. As with rail,
the waterways’ share of the market is expected to decline over the same period, from 3.2 per cent in1992 to 2.4 per cent in 2015. Prices are expected to rise by an average 10 per cent over the same
period.
Combined transport
From 1986 to 1995, the volume of combined traffic increased from 6.8 billion to 11 billion
tonne-km, i.e. an increase of 62 per cent.
By extrapolation, annual growth of 5 per cent for is forecast for the period 1992-2015.
Maritime traffic
From 1985 to 1994, maritime transport in the main ports of metropolitan France increased byapproximately 11 per cent, from 274 million to 303 million tonnes. Tonnage unloaded increased by
9 per cent, and tonnage loaded by 15 per cent.
134Forecasts for the period 1994 to 2015 put the annual growth rate at 0.6 per cent.
Air traffic
From 1985 to 1994 air freight at the main airports in metropolitan France increased from
0.817 million tonnes to 1.247 million, a rise of 53 per cent.
The forecast annual growth rate for the period 1993-2015 is 4.9 per cent, according to the most
likely scenario produced by the General Directorate for Civil Aviation (DGAC).
Oil pipeline transport
From 1986 to 1995, the tonnage carried by oil pipeline fell from 25.7 to 22.2 million tonnes,
i.e. by 14 per cent.
Currently, there are no forecasts available for the period under consideration. However, theFrench authorities believe that the tonnage carried by this type of transport will remain fairly constantfrom now to 2015.

Passenger traffic
Mobility has increased by approximately 25 per cent over the last ten years. Air transportachieved the largest increase (48 per cent), followed by road transport (35 per cent). The sharp
decline observed in 1995 is perhaps simply a temporary setback due to the strike at the end of 1995,
particularly since rail traffic seems to have held steady at around 58 billion passenger-kilometres
since 1993.

Trends in passenger traffic, 1985-95
Million passenger-kilometres

Private cars
Buses and coaches
SNCF
- TGV
RATP
- rail- roadAir (domestic airlines)

1985
489.6
37.0
61.9
8.7
11.0
8.9
2.1
39.7

1990
585.6
41.3
63.7
14.9
11.9
9.7
2.2
51.9

1992
617.0
41.8
63.0
19.0
11.7
9.5
2.2
52.4

1993
629.8
42.0
58.4
18.9
11.6
9.3
2.2
53.1

1994
651.2
42.6
58.9
20.5
11.6
9.3
2.3
60.0

19952
664.3
40.5
55.6
21.4
10.3
8.3
2.0
58.8

Source: SNCF, RATP, DAEI/SES and DGAC.

Road traffic
Between 1986 and 1995, private vehicle traffic increased by 29 per cent, from 515 to664.3 billion passenger-kilometres, gaining more than 3 percentage points in modal share.
135

For the period 1992-2015, the forecast annual growth rate for road traffic overall is 2.5 per cent.
This is higher than the observed rate for the period 1986-95 (2.42 per cent).

Trends in private and public transport vehicle stocks
Thousands

1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Private vehicles
21 09023 55023 81024 02024 38524 900

Buses and coaches
71
75
77
76
76
78

Source: OEST and CCFA.

The stock of vehicles under 15 years old increased by almost 11 per cent over the period
1986-95. For public transport by road, the situation was more varied as trends differed with each typeof service.

Trends in public transport by road
Billion passenger-kilometres

Urban including RATP buses
Intercity including the Ile-de-France
School buses
Works buses
Occasional
Total

1986
6.6
6.7
5.7
4.6
15.8
39.4

1995
7.2
7.0
5.6
2.3
18.4
40.5

% change
9.1
4.5
-1.8
-50.0
16.5
2.8

The transport strike in France in December 1995 affected all types of public transport by road.
However, in the case of company bussing, the decline is mainly attributable to structural changes(rising household car ownership, company downsizing, etc.).
Rail traffic
Over the period 1986-95, total passenger-kilometres by rail declined by 7 per cent, from 68.7 to
64.6 billion. SNCF attributes the decline to the strike, with an estimated impact of around
7 percentage points. This would bring corrected figures for 1995 to 69 billion passenger-kilometres.
Based on this assumption, rail traffic would actually have remained constant. However, this is an
assumption that should not be allowed to divert attention from the fact of a decline in rail’s market
share.

136

Trends in rail traffic by type of service
Billion passenger-kilometres

SNCF
of which :- TGV- Main network other than TGV- Paris suburban lines
Regional express trains
RATP (metro + regional
express network, RER)
Provincial metro
Total

1986
59.6

1995
55.6

% change
- 6.7

8.9
41.5
9.2
5.6
8.7

21.4
25.7
8.5
6.7
8.3

140.4
- 15.8
- 7.6
19.6
- 4.6

0.4
68.7

0.7
64.6

75.0
- 6.0

TGVs are gradually replacing some main-line services. However rail traffic overall (both SNCF
and metro services, including the RER) has declined. The growth in traffic on provincial metro lines
can be attributed to new lines brought into service during the period under consideration.
The average annual growth rate forecast for the period 1992-2015 is 1.7 per cent. No change inaverage price is expected.
Air traffic
Air traffic increased by 48 per cent overall during the period under consideration. Domestic
traffic rose by the same percentage, from 8.3 billion passenger-kilometres in 1986 to 12.3 billion in
1995. However, compared with the volume of road traffic, domestic air traffic gained only a quarterof a percentage point in market share over the same period.
Over the period 1993-2015, the average annual growth rate forecast is 3.5 per cent, according to
the most likely scenario produced by the DGAC. Average prices should fall by 11 per cent over thesame period.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
Existing infrastructure
Road network
As of 1 January 1995, the national road network was 34 640 km in length, including 7 956 km of
motorway. Almost three-quarters of national roads are two-lane roads and 15 per cent are dual
carriageways. The French road network also comprises 365 600 km of departmental roads,
562 960 km of local authority roads and 1 733 km of urban expressways.

137

Rail network
As of 1 January 1995, the total length of the rail network amounted to 32 275 km, 5 740 km ofwhich served by the TGV. The passenger network is 24 148 km in length and 54 per cent of its lines
are electrified.
Inland waterway network
France has a total of 8 500 km of navigable inland waterways, of which only 9 per cent are wide
waterways. Of this network, 5 650 km are in regular use. The fleet consists of 2 368 boats, of which
178 are purpose-built for cargoes in liquid or powder form. The waterway network’s total capacity is
1 365 million tonnes, including 149 000 tonnes of special freight.

Investment projects
From 1986 to 1995, the sums allocated to transport infrastructure rose from FF 53.2 billion to
FF 86.4 billion. Although this amounts to an increase of over 60 per cent, the figure is deceptive inthat it was not evenly distributed among modes: investment in the main SNCF network was cut by
almost 2 per cent whereas allocations for airports increased by more than 236 per cent.

Trends in infrastructure spending
Billion francs

Road network
Main SNCF network
UPT
Ports
Airports
Inland waterway
Total

1986
33.9
10.1
6.1
1.4
1.1
0.6
53.2

1995
59.3
9.9
10.5
2.2
3.7
0.8
86.4

% change
74.93- 1.9872.13
57.14
236.3633.33
62.41

The previous report mentioned the development of two infrastructure master plans, one for rail
and the other for roads. Both were drawn up without reference to other modes (although theassumption was that there would inevitably be competition, no attempt was made to assess the impact
of potential complementarity) and with relatively scant attention to environmental problems.
1992 data have not undergone substantial modifications, particularly as regards rail
infrastructure projects. The pace, or rather the programming, of road and motorway construction
work seems however to have changed, although the extent of these changes is not known.
However, new plans are now being developed as provided under the Land Use Planning andDevelopment Act. No precise date has been given for their publication.
At this stage, it is too early to give detailed projections on spending plans, which will be subject
to the convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty.
138

Road infrastructure
The roads master plan given in the previous report remains valid. Although it is currently being
revised, spending by the government and the regions on the road network will total FF 74.1 billion (in1994 francs) by the end of the 11th plan (1994-98), and most will be allocated to the A20 and A75
motorways and to the RN7.
Rail infrastructure
France has launched an ambitious railway restructuring programme whose two main aims are:− clarification of the respective responsibilities of government and the SNCF;− regionalisation.
In order to clarify the respective responsibilities of government and the SNCF, the government is
considering setting up a new public body in 1997. Reforms can only be introduced gradually. The
ultimate aims are that:− the government will continue to be responsible for specifying network requirements anddensity;− the public body, on behalf of the government, will take over ownership and financial
responsibility for rail infrastructure;− the SNCF, which would continue as a single company, would be responsible for infrastructure
management and rail transport.
A full-scale pilot decentralisation scheme is planned, under which the network will be divided
into six regions. The government will give the regions responsibility for organising regional
passenger services and will provide the necessary funding. It will then be up to the regions and the
SNCF to agree on the passenger services to be provided. The aim of regionalisation is to give
regional executives full responsibility for deciding which regional passenger services should be
provided, just as they now do for public road transport services. The regions would then be
responsible for developing services to best meet public demand.
As regards the future development of the network, the national master plan for high-speed rail
links (approved 14 May 1991) applies until it has been completed. Work in progress on the
Mediterranean high-speed line should be completed by the year 2000; work has begun on the detailed
outline design of the eastern high-speed line.
Inland waterway infrastructure
The inland waterway infrastructure master plan is also being revised. The Land Use Planningand Development Guidelines Act sets out the schedule for completion and methods of financing for
the Saône-Rhine wide inland waterway link. Large-scale public consultations took place in thesummer of 1996. Impact studies to be undertaken in the next few months should arrive at satisfactory
solutions to problems (mainly environmental ones) identified in the course of public consultation
rounds. These studies will then be discussed at public hearings.

139

Question 3. Capacity problems
Road transport
SafetyTrends in road accidents in France, 1985-95
Thousands
Accidents
Fatalities
Injuries

1985
191.1
10.4
270.8

1990
162.6
10.3
225.9

1992
143.4
9.1
198.1

1994
132.7
8.5
180.8

1995
132.9
8.4
181.4

Source: Secretariat of State for Road Transport.

The figures for 1995 seem to confirm the downward trend in the number of motorway accidents,
with accident and injury figures down by 4 to 5 per cent from the previous year.
Congestion
With the general increase in mobility, higher car ownership levels and a substantial increase inroad freight traffic, congestion problems could have been considerably worse. In fact, congestion has
not proved as bad as expected. Over a 15-year period for total travel:− the average number of daily trips per person was slightly down;− the time allowed for trips was virtually the same;− the average distance travelled had increased sharply (by over 40 per cent).
Therefore the average trip took less time.
Some observers are quick to assert that congestion is self-regulating, as users weigh up all theexternal factors when they make their choice of mode. The development of infrastructure networks,
more effective traffic control methods, higher performance transport services and lower transport
costs in real terms are factors that rational actors take into consideration.
Road traffic indices, 1985-95
Index 1970 = 100

1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

National roads*

Motorways**

140
166
169
169
172
176
179

215
302
316
323
333
345
360

National network
overall
162
207
213
215
220
227
234

*
National roads in the open countryside and in built-up areas with a population of over 5 000.
** Traffic index for comparable networks, a new set of count-sites was introduced in 1992.
Source: Secretary of State for Road Transport.

140

Rail transport
Congestion
Projected congestion in France’s conventional rail network by the year 2015 assumes high rail
traffic growth and construction of the planned high-speed lines. Without investment in theconventional network, congestion could be a problem on the following lines.
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

Dijon-Gevrey-Chagny (south of Dijon);
Bobigny-Noisy and Sucy Valenton (Paris outer ring);
Miramas-Berre;
Sotteville-Rouen;
Aisy-les-Laumes and Blaisy Bas-Dijon;
Chagny-Chalon sur Saône-Villefranche (approach to Lyon);
Lyon-Sibelin-Chasse (south of Lyon);Nîmes-Montpellier-Narbonne;
Cannes-Nice;
Bordeaux-Libourne (Saint-Jean bridge approach to Bordeaux);
St Jory-Toulouse;
Strasbourg-Mulhouse;
Noisy-Sucy;
Etampes-Orléans;Mulhouse-Basle.

Question 4. Measures
France is focusing on ensuring sustainable development. It has three priority areas:− ensuring that its policy decisions are people-centred, the priority being to preserve thepublic’s health, as can be seen from the Clean Air Act recently passed in France.
− achieving synergies between the economy and the environment: since the choice of energy
will be crucial in the future, policies promoting vehicles using the least-polluting energy
sources will be pursued;− making the best use of available space: to adapt urban and intercity transport and to control
freight transport in line with land use and development plans.
In the field of passenger transport, efforts to promote public transport will be pursued,
particularly by developing closer relations between decision makers and users and by securing greaterinteroperability between infrastructure networks.
In the field of freight transport, France is attempting to formulate a balanced policy that willmeet two needs:− the need for solidarity between wealthy and poorer regions;− the need to internalise the external costs of transport to ensure that they are distributed fairly
among modes. A first approach will be to give priority to combined transport where relevant.

141

Lastly, trials have been conducted using new traffic management tools (such as differentiatedtolls). Once they have been evaluated, it will be possible to decide whether to bring them into general
use.

SOURCES

SES, “Note de Synthèse”, March 1996.
“Autoroutes 2020”, No. 40, July/August 1996.
Ministry of Civil Engineering, Housing, Transport and Tourism, “Transport in figures 1995”.
INRETS, “Development scenario studies”, 1996.

NOTES

1.

From 1993, the mode at Community/other country borders.

2.

For 1995, the figures are provisional estimates. For road transport, they come from diverse
sources. Estimates are those of the Commission des comptes transports de la Nation.

142

GERMANYArea: 349 000 km²
Population 81.7 million

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
The forecasts contained in Germany’s Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (BVWP) remain
valid. However, the figures given below for both freight and passenger traffic are taken from IFO’s
September 1995 analysis of trends as of February 1995.
An appended table summarises Germany’s economic situation in 1995 and gives baseline
economic data for the forecasts.

Freight traffic
Figure 1. Trends in freight traffic by inland transport
In billion tonnes-km

220

220

200

200

180

180

Road

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

Rail

80

80

60

60
Waterway

40

40

20
0
1985

20
1990

1991

1992

Source: ECMT.

143

1993

0
1994

Despite an active national policy of promoting the development of inland modes other than road,road freight transport remains the predominant mode by far. Nevertheless, the tonnage transported byrail and waterway increased slightly from 1993 onwards.

Figure 2. Trends in freight traffic by mode
In million tonnes

850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1985

Road

Rail

Waterway
Pipeline

1990

1991

1992

1993

850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1994

Source: ECMT.

The BVWP had forecast growth of 77 per cent for the period 1988 to 2010. However, the latest
estimates, compiled in the current economic context, forecast growth of no more than 45 per cent by
the year 2010.
Available data indicate that the BVWP forecasts overestimated the growth of traffic in
tonnes-km and underestimated future road growth.

144

Figure 3. Future traffic trends
Comparison of BVWP forecast and present data

A. Transport by rail in billion tonnes-km
200

200

180

180
BVWP forecast

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100
Current traffic1

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0
2010

B. Transport by road in billion tonnes-km
250

250

200

200

BVWP forecast
Current traffic1

150

150

100

100

50

50

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0
2010

1. Figures to 1994 are traffic survey data, compared here with BVWP’s estimates. From 1995 the IFO’s short-term forecasts areused.
Source : ECMT.

145

Figures to 1994 are traffic survey data, compared here with BVWP’s estimates. From 1995 the IFO’s
short-term forecasts are used.
The forecasts were based on assumptions of regulatory policy conditions, such as:–––

User costs in the individual modes of transport will probably increase
Local transport policy aiming at the restriction of parking space
Effects of rising demand in road transport, which will noticeably exceed the supply of
infrastructure, with simultaneous improvement of the services offered by rail transport

Figure 4. Trends in freight traffic by mode
In billion tonnes-km

220

220

200

200

Road

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100
Rail

80

80

60

60
Waterway

40
20
0
1985

40

Pipeline

1990

20

1991

1992

Source: ECMT.

146

1993

0
1994

Road transport
Figure 4. Trends in types of road traffic (continued)
In million tonnes

400

400

350

350
For hire or reward

300

300

250

250
Own-account

200

200

150

150
Foreign HGVs

100

100

50

50

0
1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

Source: ECMT.

Figure 5. Breakdown of road traffic by type in 1993
In billion tonnes-km

Own-account28%

For hireor reward
49%

Foreign HGVs
23%

Source: ECMT.

147

0
1994

The BVWP projected a 95 per cent increase in HGV traffic over the period 1988-2010. Revised
estimates broadly confirm this trend, even forecasting growth of over 100 per cent.
Rail transport
Breakdown of rail traffic
Billion tonnes-km

Complete train loads
Part loads and express parcels
Total

1985
63.0
1.0
64.0

1990
60.8
1.1
61.9

1991
79.2
1.1
80.3

1992
69.0
0.8
69.8

1993
64.1
0.8
64.9

1994
68.3
0.8
69.1

1992
358.7
2.5
361.2

1993
314.0
2.2
316.3

1994
321.8
2.2
324.0

Breakdown of rail traffic
Million tonnes

Complete train loads
Part loads and express parcels
Total

1985
321.3
3.1
324.4

1990
300.6
3.1
303.7

1991
398.3
2.9
401.2

Over the past decades, the trend throughout the European Union has been towards a sharp
decline in rail freight transport. Nevertheless, recent IFO studies rate the prospects for growth in thistype of traffic very high, estimating growth of 66 per cent over the period 1993-2010. However, thisrate of growth could be attained only if a rail-oriented policy were implemented and sustained efforts
were made in terms of management.
Combined transport
The total traffic carried by combined transport, which showed no change for over ten years,
increased by 19 per cent from 1993 to 1994. Over the same period, two million vehicles switchedfrom road to rail mode.

Trends in combined traffic
Million tonnes

Containers
Semi-trailers carried by trains
Total

1980
6.93
4.59
11.52

1990
13.00
13.30
26.30

1991
13.50
13.60
27.10

1992
13.20
13.40
26.60

1993
12.40
14.40
26.80

1994
14.70
17.20
31.90

The German authorities want to give strong incentives to develop this mode, particularly fortransit traffic, and are keen to see the volume carried by combined transport double by the year 2010.

148

Inland waterway transport
Trends in waterway traffic
Million tonnes
1985
105.3
117.1
222.4

German ships
Foreign ships
Total

1990
102.7
128.9
231.6

1991
104.5
125.5
230.0

1992
102.9
127.0
229.9

1993
96.3
122.2
218.5

1994
101.6
133.4
235.0

Figure 6. Breakdown of traffic volume by type of ship
In billion tonnes-km

40

40

35

35
Foreign ships

30

30

25

25
German ships

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0
1985

1990

1991

1992

0
1994

1993

Source: ECMT.

The BVWP projected that inland waterway traffic would increase by 84 per cent from 1988 to2010. Now that the environment is a major issue, this mode shows considerable growth potential,
despite the slight downturn in total tonnage carried between 1990 and 1993. The IFO forecasts
growth of 60 per cent between 1993 and 2010.
Air transport

Million tonnes-km
Thousand tonnes

1985
314.3
1 069.2

1990
439.5
1 578.5

1991
428.8
1 560.8

149

1992
428.8
1 599.8

1993
435.9
1 680.6

1994
459.2
1 878.4

The BVWP forecast that air traffic would grow by 151 per cent from 1988 to 2010. Judging by
the large increase in traffic over the period 1988-93, these projections seem likely to be borne out. In
fact, there was an increase of 45 per cent in tonne-km and 58 per cent in tonnage carried for freightalone from 1985 to 1993.
Transit traffic
A study of certain international links has identified one trend in freight traffic passing throughGermany. Flows of freight from the United Kingdom, France and the Benelux countries en route tonorthern, central and eastern Europe (Poland, the Baltic states, Russia, the Czech andSlovak Republics and Hungary) totalled 2.2 million tonnes in 1988 and 4.2 million tonnes in 1993.
The BVWP forecast flows of 8.9 million tonnes by 2010.
Flows from northern Europe (Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark) totalled
2.7 million tonnes in 1988 and 3.8 million in 1993. Forecasts are for 6.7 million tonnes by 2010.
These figures may foreshadow a substantial increase in transit traffic via Germany, which
already has the highest through-traffic figures in Europe. At peak hours on some roads up to
27 000 HGVs per day have been recorded, of which at least 30 per cent were foreign HGVs in transit.
Freight transit traffic through Germany totalled approximately 27 billion tonnes-km in 1993:− 4.2 billion tonnes-km by rail;− 8.2 billion tonnes-km by waterway.
The tonnage carried by these two modes had remained static from 1980 to 1993, while roadtonnage more than doubled from 6 billion tonnes in 1980 to 14.1 billion tonnes in 1993. The
indications are that this trend will continue. Experts expect transit traffic by road to double in volume
from now to 2010, unless the government rapidly introduces policies to prevent it.

Passenger traffic
In Thousand of passengers

Public transport
Private transport by road
Total

1985
6 984
35 02442 0081990
7 131
38 60045 7301991
9 442
46 77456 2161992
9 469
47 57257 0421993
9 574
48 33857 9121994
9 593
49 09058 683The modal split in passenger traffic has been relatively stable since 1991. Despite incentives touse public transport, the private car accounted for 81 per cent of all passenger traffic and 82 per centof passenger-km in 1994.

150

Figure 7. Trends in the number of passengers by type of transport
In thousand passengers

50 00050 00045 00045 000Private transport by road

40 00040 00035 00035 00030 00030 00025 00025 000

20 000

20 000

15 000

15 000
10 000

10 000Public transport

5 000
0
1985

1990

1991

1992

5 000
1993

0
1994

Source: ECMT.

Figure 7. Trends in passengers-km by type of transport (continued)
In million passengers-km

800

800

700

Private transport by road

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200
Public transport

100
0
1985

1990

1991

1992

Source: ECMT.

151

1993

100
0
1994

Figure 8. Future traffic trends
Comparison of BVWP forecast and present data

A. Traffic by rail in billion passengers-km
90

90
80

80

BVWP forecast

70

70

60

60

50

50

Current traffic

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0
2010

B. Traffic by road in billion passengers-km
900

900
BVWP forecast

Current traffic

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Source : ECMT.

152

2002

2004

2006

2008

0
2010

Explanations about BVWP forecasts: see page 146

Trends in billion passengers-km since 1985

Public transport
Private transport by road
Total

1985
118.5
495.1
613.6

1990
128.2
601.8
730.0

1991
158.5
713.5
871.0

1992
158.0
731.5
889.5

1993
160.2
740.8
901.0

1994
162.4
731.2
893.6

The BVWP estimated growth in passenger traffic over the period 1988-2010 at 32 per cent.
Recent estimates put growth higher still, at 42 per cent.
The trend is the same for private road transport, with forecasts of 32 to 43 per cent growth overthe same period.
Public transport by road
Breakdown of road traffic
Million passengers

Scheduled services
Non-scheduled services
Total
non-scheduled services

1985
5 731.0
76.0
5 808.0
1.31%

1990
5 815.0
81.0
5 896.0
1.37%

1991
7 775.0
85.8
7 860.8
1.09%

1992
7 761.3
85.7
7 847.0
1.09%

1993
7 835.2
83.6
7 918.7
1.06%

1994
7 846.3
81.2
7 927.5
1.02%

1993
70.2
43.6
26.6
9.4
79.6

1994
68.6
43.4
25.2
8.9
77.5

Breakdown of road traffic
Billion passenger-km

Bus
Of which scheduled services
Of which non-scheduled services
Tram, S-Bahn
Total

1985
54.0
33.8
20.3
8.3
62.3

1990
56.6
32.6
24.0
8.6
65.2

1991
70.3
42.6
27.6
13.2
83.5

1992
69.9
42.7
27.2
10.5
80.4

The number of passengers carried by bus and coach has risen sharply and is up 40 per cent inless than ten years. The share of traffic (by number of passengers) carried by non-scheduled transport
is declining, despite a slight increase in the overall number of passengers carried.

153

Rail transport
Trends in rail transport
Million passengers

Local rail services
Of which home-to-work travel
Of which home-to-school travel
Long-distance rail services
Total

1985
994
344
231
140
1 134

1990
1 058
344
205
114
1 172

1991
1 381
427
232
137
1 518

1992
1 421
431
261
130
1 551

1993
1 441
480
266
138
1 579

1994
1 457
n.a.
n.a.
126
1 582

Figure 9. Trends in rail traffic since 1985 by type of service
In billion passengers-km

35

35

Long-distance rail services

30

30

25

25
Local rail services

20

20

15

15

10
1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

10
1994

Source: ECMT.

The IFO’s figures on rail traffic trends are less optimistic than those contained in the BVWP, at
growth of 30 per cent rather than 40 per cent over the reference period. Moreover, this rate is basedon the assumption that a strong rail transport development policy will be put in place.

154

Air transport
Trends in air traffic
Million passengers

Scheduled flights
Charter flights
Of which tour operator charter flights
Total
Of which domestic flights

1985
28.9
12.8
10.3
41.7
9.4

1990
45.4
17.2
15.5
62.6
13.0

1991
45.3
17.2
15.6
62.5
13.2

1992
50.1
20.9
19.3
71.0
13.8

1993
54.3
22.5
20.7
76.8
14.6

1994
60.7
22.3
20.7
83.0
14.8

Figure 10. Trends in air traffic since 1985
In million passengers

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50
Scheduled flights

40

40

30

30

20

20
Charter flights

10
0
1985

10
1990

1991

1992

1993

0
1994

Source: ECMT.

Germany’s international air traffic has increased strongly for both scheduled and charter flights.
Since 1993, however, the number of charter flight passengers has flattened out somewhat, an apparent
sign of a slight downturn in tour operator business.

155

Figure 11. Breakdown of traffic by type of flight
In million passenger-km

25

25
Scheduled flights
Charters flights

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

0

Source: ECMT.

Recent estimates, together with particularly strong growth in the period 1988-93, appear to bearout the high growth rate projected in the BVWP for the period 1988-2010 (up 151 per cent).

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects

In 1995, Germany’s transport investment policy focused on the development of environmentallyfriendly infrastructure. Rail and waterway modes therefore received particular attention. The sums
allocated by the federal government to transport in 1995 are broken down as follows:− DM 10 billion to rail;− DM 8.6 billion to the core federal road network;− DM 1.1 billion to inland waterways.
An additional DM 6.28 billion were allocated to the Länder for the purposes of improving local
transport conditions.
The development of transport infrastructure in the new Länder, especially the 17 infrastructure
projects provided for in the framework of the German Unity Plan (the VDE), continues to be apriority. Other programmes are aimed at improving transport conditions in general or in specificmodes: these include the 1993-97 five-year plan, the Federal Road Network Development Plan, theStructural Reform of the Railways and the transit traffic policy programme.

156

In the period from the latter half of the 1980s to 1994, the Ministry of Transport invested a totalof some DM 48 billion in major federal transport corridors and local infrastructure in the new Länder.
DM 17 billion have been earmarked for renovating, upgrading and building rail infrastructure. In
addition, the federal government attaches the utmost importance to the use by transport operators of
new communications and traffic control technologies which should also facilitate balanced andenvironmentally sustainable traffic growth.
Currently the Länder and industry have drafted framework agreements to introduce integrated
traffic information systems and the new technologies required to modernise the management of alltransport modes in Germany as quickly as possible. According to the Ministry of Transport, it isessential for Germany to maintain a strong position in advanced technology, including in the area oftransport.

Existing infrastructure
Road infrastructure
Length of the federal road network (major roads)
Thousand kilometres

Federal motorways
Federal roads
Total

1985
8 350
31 40039 7501990
8 959
30 90039 8591991
10 95542 10053 0551992
11 01342 20053 2131993
11 08042 00053 0801994
11 14341 80052 913The Ministry of Transport bases its infrastructure investment programmes on mobility trends, theaverage daily traffic on major federal roads, and car ownership figures. In some cases, traffic trend
data relate only to the former Länder, as the survey system in the new Länder is still underdevelopment.
On this basis, the number of cars in federal Germany totalled 46.6 million in 1994, representing
an annual increase of 2.2 per cent. HGVs account for 13.1 per cent of the traffic on federal
motorways and 7.7 per cent of the traffic on federal roads.
Average daily traffic has increased by:− 1.1 per cent on federal motorways, to 45 900 vehicles/day;− 0.2 per cent on federal roads, to 9 390 vehicles/day.
In 1994, total distance travelled on the road network was an estimated 496.8 billion kilometres.
The table below shows that there was more traffic (all categories of vehicles) on the motorways thanon federal roads. However, the total distance travelled on major federal roads was substantiallyhigher than the total annual distance travelled by German vehicles, due to the increasing flows ofinternational through-traffic.

157

Annual distance travelled on the road network
Billion kilometres

Federal motorways
Federal roads
Länder roads
Local roads
Municipal roads
Total

1985
94.5
84.3
66.2
37.6
101.9
384.5

1990
135.6
103.3
80.7
44.4
124.5
488.5

1991
140.8
104.8
82.0
45.7
129.2
502.5

1992
146.6
105.4
82.6
45.7
126.9
507.2

1993
151.5
105.0
81.8
45.4
122.0
505.7

1994
154.8
103.4
80.8
44.6
113.2
496.8

According to estimates by the German Economic Research Institute (DIW), the total distancetravelled in the new Länder in 1994 was approximately 85 billion vehicle-km, i.e. an increase of
10 per cent over 1993 figures.

Progress on recent projects
Progress on road and rail construction and development projects implemented under the VDE isreviewed below. According to the Ministry of Transport’s first progress report on VDE projects in
September 1995, good progress has been made in the four years since the start of the plan. The
Ministry intends to continue to focus on “integrated transport”, in order to achieve a more balanced
distribution among inland transport modes and protect the environment.
Over the past four years, total investments amounted to DM 12 billion, 80 per cent of which wasallocated to rail transport.
Road transport
The DEGES and the relevant authorities in the former and new Länder have made good progresson planned construction work under the VDE projects, and some sections have been opened to traffic.
The following projects have been completed:
−
−
−
−
−

widening of the Berlin South ring-road to six lanes (A10);
the bridge over the Neisse on the border near Görlitz (A4);the A4 motorway between Eichelborn and Weimar;
the Hermsdorfer Kreuz motorway interchange (A4/A9);
the A9 motorway between Großkugel and Droyßig and between the Thuringian/Bavarianborder and Berg/Bad Steben.

From the end of 1994, some DM 2.2 billion were invested in seven VDE road projects and afurther DM 1.5 billion were allocated for 1995.
Rail transport
In line with the Ministry of Transport’s priorities, rail projects (2 000 km of track in all) madegood progress over the four-year period. Construction work was under way or had been completed on
almost all of the lines. Two projects, representing a total of 273 km of track, are already open to
traffic:
158

- VDE No. 6: the Eichenberg-Halle line, opened in May 1994;- VDE No. 7: the Bebra-Erfurt line, opened in May 1995;- VDE No. 5: the Helmstedt-Magdeburg-Berlin line, via Potsdam, was scheduled to open inlate 1995.
Waterway transport
Waterway transport strikes a good balance between economic growth imperatives andenvironmental concerns. Construction projects take the surrounding landscape into account. Somework planned under the VDE, such as the construction of additional road bridges, has been
completed. Investment to the end of 1994 totalled DM 110 million.
The largest VDE project is the renovation of the Magdeburg river crossing, planned tocommence in 1996. The aim is to provide a link to Magdeburg’s ports over a canal bridge on theElbe with locks at Rothensee and Hohenwarthe.

Current projects
Road infrastructure
The construction of by-passes for major federal roads is a key element in the federal road
network development programme. The 1993-97 five-year plan, with its extension to the year 2000,
involves the construction of a total of 428 by-passes. In 1994, 49 sections (total length 147.9 km)
entered service at the federal level. The total investment for these projects was DM 1 076.6 million.
Following agreements with neighbouring countries, a start was made on the construction offrontier bridges on international routes. Two such agreements are particularly significant. The first,
with Poland, entered into force in 1994 and will enable the construction of bridges over the Oder (A4and A12 motorways). The second, with Luxembourg, will enable the construction of a bridge over
the Mosel (A8 motorway).
Rail infrastructure
Some VDE projects are already under way or will be shortly. They include:--

VDE No. 1: Upgrading of the Lübeck-Hagenow Land-Rostock-Stralsund line
The electrification of the north-east/west line (over 242 km) and the laying of a second track
will improve the network in the former Länder and will link Schwerin, the principal town of
the Land, and the ports of Wismar, Rostock and Stralsund to the network. In addition, it
will speed up international traffic to Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (particularly to theBaltic ports mentioned above). It should also facilitate the development of a coastal tourist
region: Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. The aim is to reduce the journey time from Lübeck
to Stralsund to two hours. With the work now under way, it should be possible to bring theHagenow-Schwerin section into service in 1996 at speeds of 160 km/h.

159

Along with the decision to electrify the line between Hamburg and Nauen (west of Berlin)by the end of 1996, it was decided to build a double track link between Hamburg and
Rostock via Schwerin with a spur to Stralsund and Rügen island.
--

VDE No. 2: Upgrading of the Hamburg-Büchen-Berlin line
The laying of a second track and electrification of the line over 270 km will enable trains totravel at an average speed of 160 km/h and up to 200 km/h on some sections, considerably
cutting journey time. It will also greatly improve links between the centre of Germany and
the North Sea ports and the link between these ports and the Länder in the east and southeast. The entire Hamburg-Berlin line could enter service in 1997, reducing the journey timeby 2 h15. The connection to Berlin will be via the old Berlin-Spandau rail link via
Falkensee (which was cut when the Berlin wall was built in 1961); it will be renovated andconverted to double track.

--

VDE No. 3: Upgrading and construction work on the Uelzen-Salzwedel-Stendal line:
It is planned to upgrade and build new sections on the Uelzen-Stendal line (over 113 km) toconnect it to the Hanover-Stendal-Berlin high-speed line. In the first instance, the gap in theline (dating from the division of Germany) between Salzwedel and Nienbergen to the east of
Uelzen is to be rebuilt and to be in operation by 1997 (single track, diesel traction). At alater date, the track is to be electrified (1999) and a second track laid along its full length.
This will improve the link between the eastern Länder and the Länder containing Bremen
and other North Sea ports. There are also plans to eliminate low-capacity sections on the
network and to improve regional and commuter services.

--

VDE No. 4: Construction of the Hanover-Stendal-Berlin high-speed line
This line, 265 km long, is to be built as part of the European high-speed network.
Paris/London-Brussels-Aix-la-Chapelle-Cologne-Hanover-Berlin-Warsaw-Moscow.
The
Lehrte-Oebisfelde line is to be electrified and converted to double track for speeds of
200 km/h; track for speeds of 250 km/h is to be laid from Oebisfelde to Staaken.
Later, the line from Staaken to Berlin’s mainline railway station (Berlin Hauptbahnhof) is to
be upgraded and electrified. A start has already been made, such as the construction ofbridges: six, including those over the Elbe and the Mittelandkanal, have been completed
and 20 others are under construction.
In the Berlin rail network, between Staaken and the Berlin Friedrichstraße and
Hauptbahnhof stations, major work is under way, chiefly to restructure the Berlin
underground lines between the Zoo and Hauptbahnhof stations. Because of this work, there
will be no mainline link between the two stations until 1997. The high-speed line should be
open to traffic by the end of 1997. The journey time from Hanover to Berlin should be twohours, instead of three.

--

VDE No. 8: Upgrading and construction work on the Nuremberg-Erfurt-Berlin link
Upgrading and construction work along a 521 km stretch of this key north-south link isbeing undertaken as part of the TEN scheme. The work will substantially improve160

Germany’s south/south-west rail link as well as the rail link between the industrial heartland
and Berlin. There are also plans to convert the line between Nuremberg-Ebensfeld to four
tracks (200 km/h), to construct a new Ebensfeld-Erfurt-Halle/Leipzig line, and to upgrade
the track between Halle/Leipzig and Berlin. Work has already begun on this section. The
Halle-Bitterfeld section had been shut down completely but has now been completed and isback in service.
Work to link the Intercity Express (ICE) line with the A71/A73 motorway south of Erfurt isscheduled for spring 1996.
When all the necessary work has been completed, the journey time from Berlin to
Nuremburg will be approximately three and a half hours.
--

VDE No. 9: Upgrading of the Leipzig-Dresden line
The gradual upgrading of the track along a length of 115 km to cater for speeds of up to
200 km/h will reduce the journey time from one and a half hours to one hour by the year
2000. Initially, work will concentrate on existing track, stations and bridges between
Wurzen and Oschatz. The construction of the connection to the Berlin-Dresden line and to
the Dresden railway junction is at the planning stage. After the upgrade, Saxony will havebetter links with the Ruhr, Rhine and Main basins and Bavaria. At the same time, the newlines being built from the Dresden junction will bring substantial improvements to regionaland commuter train traffic.

Waterway infrastructure
Under VDE No. 17, 253 km of waterway are to be developed in order to enable the passage oflarge carriers (up to 2 000 tonnes), and loading docks are to be modernised (through the provision ofgantry cranes with a capacity of 3 500 tonnes). Specifically, this will require:− improvements to the Mittellandkanal along a 60 km stretch in Saxony-Anhalt: the canal will
be widened and clearances under bridges increased;− improvements to a 106 km stretch of the Elbe-Havel canal and the Untere-Havel waterway
between Niegripp and Potsdam: the canal will be widened and clearances under bridges andthe capacity of the Zerben, Wusterwitz and Brandenburg locks will be increased;− improvements to the Havel-Kanal along a 14 km stretch from the Untere-Havel waterway to
the Wustermark freight terminal: the canal will be widened and clearances under bridges
increased;− improvements to the Berlin navigable waterway along a 67 km stretch between two sections(Potsdam-Westhafen and Potsdam-Osthafen): the canal will be widened and clearances underbridges and the capacity of the Charlottenberg and Kleinmachnow locks will be increased.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Road transport
The funds provided for some road infrastructure projects were revised downwards following cutsin the federal budget. In its funding plan of 13 July 1993 and its decisions on the infrastructure161

investment budget, the federal government had earmarked DM 10.76 billion for spending on major
federal roads in 1993 and 1994 and DM 10.6 billion in subsequent years. However, the budget passedby the Bundestag in 1995 provided only DM 10.65 billion for major federal roads in 1995 andDM 9.9 billion per year from 1996 to 1998.
The budget also affected roadwork. For instance, construction standards on the width of six-lane
motorways were revised downwards. The full cross-section of this type of motorway will now belimited to 35.5 m instead of 37.5 m. However, these dimensions should still ensure that vehicles cantravel safely without the need for speed limits. The motorways will be able to remain open to traffic
while work is in progress.

Freight transit traffic
The number of heavy lorries travelling through Germany has risen steeply since 1990. However,most of these vehicles do not comply with European Union safety or environmental standards. They
are the source of some of the transport taxes (Germany’s “polluter pays” principle) and put those who
do comply with the standards and other cleaner modes of transport at a disadvantage.
The costs of the damage to the environment caused by road freight transit traffic are higher thanthe value added it generates.

Question 4: Measures

Road transport
Legislative measures
There have been a number of amendments to legislation on road construction -- mainly relating
to the specifications for the construction of major federal roads -- with the entry into force of thefollowing acts:− the Third Law of 25 March 1994 amending the Law on Major Federal Roads (OJ 1994,
vol. 1) with effect from 8 April 1994;− the Law on private financing of the construction of major federal roads of 30 August 1994,
with effect from 2 September 1994;− the Law on motorway user charges of 31 August 1994, with effect from 9 September 1994.
Environmental protection
In 1994, DM 851 million were spent on environmental protection, including DM 561 million for
new construction or development projects.
DM 402 million were also invested in noise abatement: construction of approximately 48 km ofembankments, 88 km of noise barriers and 42 000 m² of double glazing. Some DM 449 million werespent on the conservation of nature and the countryside, including the maintenance of green areas andbiotopes.
162

The reduction of exhaust gases from vehicles is one of the main planks of current transport
policy. To this end, the Transport Ministry is planning:− as a first step, to introduce a tax on private motor vehicles;− to follow this up with an initiative at European level to reduce the acceptable concentration ofgases in vehicle exhausts emissions by the year 2000.
The German automobile industry has also voluntarily undertaken to reduce the petrol
consumption of private vehicles and the growth in the number of privately owned vehicles by 25 percent by the year 2005 (relative to 1990 figures).
In order to promote the use of LPG vehicles, the authorities are planning to reduce taxes for thistype of vehicle by around 60 per cent.
Road safety
The first step was to remove level crossings on major federal roads in order to improve safety
and traffic flow. Spending on the removal of these crossings and the installation of safety equipment
under the roads plan totalled DM 53.7 million in 1994. The closure of railway intersections on local
authority roads cost DM 192.7 million.
Transit traffic
The exponential growth in freight traffic through Germany, principally via roads, prompted thefederal government to frame, with the advice of industrial transport specialists, a national concept ofwhat constitutes environmentally friendly through traffic. The “Freight transit through Germany”
plan specifies a number of measures designed to strike a better balance among the different transportmodes. In order to avoid “road only” transport, infrastructure costs are to be allocated fairly amongmodes so that road users contribute to the costs of the infrastructure they use. With this in mind, atime-based toll system for HGVs on motorways is to be introduced in 1997 and will mark a turning
point in Germany’s road transport policy.

Rail transport
Measures taken in the rail transport sector are a result of regulatory policy, on the one hand, andthe restructuring of the railways, on the other. The next steps should be to separate infrastructure
management from operations by Deutsche Bahn Company (DB) and to open the network to third
parties. The order governing infrastructure use (InfrastrukturNutzungsverordnung), at the draft stage
at the end of 1995, should ensure open competition in the railways by regulating the allocation of
infrastructure capacity and allowing the introduction of user charges by DB.
As part of the restructuring process, the responsibility for local passenger service was to be
devolved to the Länder on 1 January 1996, thereby enabling local public transport to provide“customised” services.

163

Combined transport
To encourage the wider use of combined transport technologies, particularly for EEC freighttraffic travelling through Germany to the countries of eastern Europe, the federal government is
considering the introduction of a number of measures, such as:− abolishing taxes;− allowing freight traffic on Sundays and public holidays.
A review of infrastructure investment programmes is also planned with a view to developing
road/rail transfer terminals, creating a user network, meeting operators’ needs, etc. This last initiative
will bring private operators and the railway companies together to draft a programme of action(KV-Standortkonzeption 2010) aimed at making combined transport technologies more attractive.
Among the initiatives mentioned are the development and construction of 44 combined transportterminals in Germany.
1
Under the 1992 transport infrastructure master plan, DM 4.1 million were allocated to
improving rail-waterway connections to the year 2012; interest-free loans and subsidies to financeDB’s transfer terminals were also provided. The development of combined transport is extremely
important for the future of DB, which is relying heavily on growth in this type of traffic to increase its
share of the freight transport market.

Note
1.

This figure should be treated with caution. Although the source is the Federal Ministry ofTransport’s Strassenbaubericht 1995, it seems a little low compared with other investment and is
all the more surprising given the obvious determination to develop this mode.

164

Appendix

Current economic data, 10 August 1995

Economic data

Effective date

+2.50%+8-10%
3.00%

year

Expected growth 1995
Old Länder
New Länder
Germany
Consumer prices
Expectation 1995
Employment
Unemployment rate
Old Länder
New Länder
Germany

9.2%
14.8%
10.4%

1-8-1995
1-8-1995
1-8-1995

Number of unemployed
Old Länder
New Länder
Germany

2 549 063
1 041 437
3 590 500

1-8-1995
1-8-1995
1-8-1995

86,21255,014
141,226

1-8-1995
1-8-1995
1-8-1995

Part-time workers
Old Länder
New Länder
Germany
New orders+2.00%
Federal Labour Office

Federal Ministry of
Economics,
News of the day(Changes from preceding year)

Old Länder
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturers of int. products
Manufacturers of capital goods
Manufacturers of consumer goods
New Länder
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturers of int. products
Manufacturers of capital goods
Manufacturers of consumer goods
Production in the producing sector+9.5%+10.0%+9.0%+7.4%

May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95+54.7%+28.3%+8,7%+14.9%

May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95Federal Ministry of
Economics,
News of the day(Changes from preceding year)

Old Länder
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturers of int. products
Manufacturers of capital goods
Manufacturers of consumer goods
Construction industry

SourceFederal Ministry of
Economics, Annual
economic report

+4.0%
+2.3%
+6.7%
+3.9%
+0.3%

165

May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95

New orders(Changes from preceding year)

New Länder
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturers of int. products
Manufacturers of capital goods
Manufacturers of consumer goods
Construction industry
Motor industry+18,0%+29,4%+4,6%+18,7%+14,0%

May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95
May 95(motor vehicles)

Production
Number of new registrations
Export

2 590 400
1 931 400
1 423 700

Jan-Jun 95
Jan-Jun 95
Jan-Jun 95

Production
Number of new registrations
ExportTrade surplus
Last monthJanuary to...

+14,0%+2,0%+18,0%
million DM+6 300+27 157

Jan-Jun 95
Jan-Jun 95
Jan-Jun 95

Current account deficit
Last monthJanuary to...

-3 926-16 490

April 95
April 95

VDA
(Association ofGerman motor vehicle
manufacturers)(Changes from preceding year)

166

Deutsche Bundesbank
April 95
April 95

GREECE
Area: 131 000 km²
Population: 10 500 000

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Compared with other EU countries, Greece has one of the lowest levels of development, asshown by its per capita GDP ($7 300) and car ownership rate (172 vehicles per 1 000 inhabitants in1993).
Freight traffic forecasts drawn up within the framework of the Blue Plan were based on anumber of different scenarios, taking into account GDP growth trends in Mediterranean countries andfreight traffic trends (measured in tonne-km) between 1972 and 1992. Evaluation of the traffic flows
in tonne-km takes into account the size of the countries considered.

Freight traffic forecasts
Billion tonne-km

Scenario T2
Scenario A2High estimate
2000
2025
20.0
29.7
20.5
31.5

Low estimate
2000
2025
17.4
21.0
17.8
22.9

Source: Blue Plan.

Rail traffic
The volume of rail traffic seems to have been estimated using the four methods described in theprevious report (generation, attraction, modal distribution, assigning of traffic) and based on theadministrative divisions of the rail network. Growth of rail mobility was not predicted. Furthermore,no global figures for domestic traffic have been forwarded; a set of maps shows traffic volumes only
on the different lines making up the network, for the years 1992, 1993, and 1994.
A study of these maps reveals that passenger traffic overall has fared better, in terms of volume,than freight traffic. Nonetheless, the volume of passenger traffic on certain lines, for example
between Salonika and Idoméni, fell by 45 per cent between 1991 and 1994.

167

Average annual traffic growth on line sections shown on the maps
Percentage

Passenger traffic
Freight traffic in tonnes

1994/91-12-42

1994/93-11-24

1993/92-1-18

1992/917-14

According to figures published by the ECMT, it would seem that although load factors (in termsof number of passengers per train) are declining, mobility appears to be increasing. Performance isbetter when expressed in passenger-kilometres than in number of passengers.

Rail traffic, 1985-94
Billions (ECMT data)

Freight (t-km)
Passenger (p-km)

1985
0.73
1.73

1993
0.52
1.73

1994
0.32
1.75

94/93
- 38
+1

Road traffic
For the past few years, the National Roads Department has carried out an annual study of roadtraffic by origin/destination. On the basis of the maps resulting from this study, together withorigin/destination traffic forecasts for the years 2000 and 2010, vehicle flow forecasts can be made on
the basis of the following assumptions:

Entry into serviceof new roadsections

Existing section
upgradesSocio-economic
forecasts

2000
1. Road from Egnatia
2. Sections between Aktioand Preveza (Rio-Antirrio)
3. Road between Kozáni and
Ptolémaida

1. Road linking Corinth,Athens and Salonika
2. Road between Salonika
and Promahónas
1. Same population as in1993
2. 1993 GDP trends

2010
1. Road from Egnatia
2. Sections between Aktio and Preveza (RioAntirrio)
3. Road between Kozáni and Ptolémaida
4. Pamagia-Vols section
5. Lamia-Trikkala section
6. Western route
7. Siátista-Krystallopigi
1. Road linking Corinth, Athens and Salonika
2. Road between Salonika and Promahónas
3. Road between Trípolis and Kalamata
1. Average annual population growth rate:
0.4 %2. Average annual GDP growth rate: 3.8 %3. 30 % improvement in regional indexes

168

The 1993 map shows two main areas of traffic, totalling, on average, 25 000 vehicles per day:− the first follows the route between Thivai and Athens, as far as Corinth;− the second concerns the roads around Salonika, in the north towards Idoméni and in the west
towards Gianitsà.
Traffic levels of approximately 10 000 vehicles per day are generally found on roads leading toor extending beyond the aforementioned high traffic routes, i.e. Corinth-Patras, Lianokládi-Thiva,
Lárisa-Vólos.
Traffic in northern Greece is much less dense, with between 2 000 and 4 000 vehicles per day.
The western part of the country is served by an inland route which, on average, totals between 5 000
and 7 000 vehicles per day.
The volume of traffic in central Greece is low, to the point of non-existence on some routes (0 to900 vehicles per day).
The map of traffic forecasts for the year 2000 shows that:− in the north, average daily traffic is increasing significantly, in particular east-bound traffic
which is expected to total between 3 500 and 8 000 vehicles per day;− in the east, average traffic on coastal roads is expected to double (from 5 000 vehicles per day
on some routes in 1993 to 10 000 in 2000);− in the north-west, the route between Salonika and the province of Ioannina will total between
6 000 and 8 000 vehicles per day;− in the south, coastal traffic is increasing.
According to forecasts for 2010, traffic on the coastal roads will continue to increase, and, at thesame time, the distribution of traffic throughout the network will become more even as traffic ontransverse routes reaches significant levels:− traffic between Patras and Corinth is expected to increase from approximately 10 000 vehicles
per day between 1993 and 2000 to 18 000 in 2010;− traffic between Monastiri and the province of Trikkala (towards Kalabáka) is expected to total
between 4 000 and 10 000 vehicles per day (depending on the direction of the traffic);− 15 000 vehicles per day are forecast between Salonika and Ioannina.

Road traffic trends
Billions (ECMT data)

Freight traffic (t-km)
Private car traffic (p-km)
Bus traffic (p-km)

169

1985
10.35
13.33
5.79

1993
13.95
5.16

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
Description of existing and future infrastructure
Road infrastructure
Present situation on existing road corridors
Kilometres

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Corridors
Patras-Athens-Salonika-Evzoni
Egnatia (Igoumenitsa-SalonikaAlexandroupolis-Greek/Bulgarian border)
Salonika-Greek/Bulgarian border
Siatista-Greek/Bulgarian border
Corinth-Tripolis-Kalamata
Salonika-Florina
Patras-Pirgos
Salonika-Nea Moudania

National roads
206

Express roads
453

Total
659

70

285
80
28
12
23
100
50
1 031

355
80
28
82
23
100
65
1 392

70

15
361

Situation of road corridors in 2010
Kilometres

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Corridors
Patras-Athens-Salonika-Evzoni
Egnatia (Igoumenitsa-SalonikaAlexandroupolis-Greek/Bulgarian border
Salonika-Greek/Bulgarian border
Siatista-Greek/Albanian border
Corinth-Tripolis-Kalamata
Patras-Pirgos
Salonika-Nea Moudhania
Eastern corridor (Igoumenista-Patras)
North Crete corridor
Elefsina-Stavros-Spata-New airport(Athens bypass)

National roads
206

Express roads
453

Total
659

70

285
80
28
12
100
50
20

355
80
28
82
100
65
50
20

1 028

70
1 509

70
15
50

70
481

Railway infrastructure
A map of the future rail network indicates ambitious plans, aimed at improving the density of the
network throughout Greece and developing seven connections with the rail networks in neighbouring
countries: F.Y.R.O.M., Albania, Bulgaria and Turkey.

170

Key projects outside the TEN
Five road and four rail infrastructure investment projects that were not selected at the Essen
Summit have been identified as key projects.

Road projects and their cost
MECU
Nature of work
1 Improvements along theSalonika-Serres-Promahónas
corridor
2 Completion of work on theSalonika-Mouciania corridor
3 Corinth-Tripolis-Kalamata
4 Ring-road around Piraeus
5 Northern Crete corridor bypass
around Agrinion and Arta
Bridge between Rio and Andirio

FundingsourceEU
National
contribution contribution

Cohesion
Fund
Cohesion
Fund
Cohesion
Fund
Cohesion
Fund
Structural
funds

Privatefunding

Total cost

16 5752 925

19 50049 50518 5303 270

21 80033 003

3 194

565

3 758

33 00327 209480

32 011226 780

151 162

320 000

897 892

Rail projects
Rail projects and their cost
MECU
Nature of the work
1 Athens-Salonika-Idoméni
Evangelismós-Leptokariá
Electrification of the Athens-Salinika line
2 Upgrading work on rest of network:
Peloponnese network
Lárisa-Vólos line
3 Widening of the Paleofársala-Kalabákaline
4 Upgrading work on the SalonikaAlexandroúpolis line

FundingsourceEUcontribution

Structuralfunds

338 316145 938484 264

Structural
funds

5 950

7 650

13 60028 8155 095

33 90026 5204 080

31 200Cohesion
Fund
Cohesion
Fund

National
Total cost
contribution

Question 3: Capacity problems
In spite of the relatively low car ownership rate in Greece, congestion and pollution attain highlevels in urban areas, particularly in the Athens area.

171

Question 4: Measures
Greece makes no mention of special measures taken recently. It would seem that, for all modes,
the government’s main response to capacity problems consists in developing infrastructure within theframework of the various projects.

172

HUNGARYArea: 93 000 km²
Population: 10 200 000

Hungary mentions the difficulty of producing reliable statistics in a still unstable economic andpolitical context. As a result, it is difficult to evaluate the cost and return to capital of a motorway
project, for example. In addition, the war in the former Yugoslavia complicates the Hungariansituation, since Hungary’s geographical situation makes it a natural transit route between western andsouth-eastern Europe.
The positive aspect of the political and economic changes is the multiplication of the financing
possibilities for infrastructure maintenance and development: in addition to the state budget, it ispossible to obtain private capital, funds allocated by the international organisations and Community
funds (via the PHARE plan). The advice and assistance provided in the PHARE framework permits
more rapid progress on the path of European integration.
The Hungarian government has just adopted a new transport plan, which has four objectives:−−−−promote European integration;
co-operate with neighbouring states to achieve balanced development;
protect human life and the environment;
ensure the proper regulation and efficiency of the transport market.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
In view of these very particular circumstances, many studies concerning both passengers andfreight have been carried out in recent years in Hungary. The methodologies used include scenarios,
expert forecasts, extrapolations and the separate or combined application of transport models. The
results presented here cover the period to the end of this century, and deal separately with passengers
and freight.

Passenger transport
Private transport
Private transport is expected to increase from some 51 billion passenger-km in 1994 to
54-55 billion in 2000 and 67-81 billion in 2010. By convention, the trend in the car stock is used tomake traffic forecasts. From the beginning of the 1960s, the number of private cars suddenly began173to increase, rising from 30 000 in 1960 to 2.1 million in 1993. The forecasts are for 2.2 million carsin 1995 and 2.5 million in the year 2000, or even 3 million, depending on the rate of economic
growth.
Public transport
Public transport is expected to remain the main mode until the year 2000, but its market share is
likely to fall. In 1994, it accounted for 30 billion passenger-km for total national traffic, and a market
share of 60 per cent for Budapest alone. The forecasts are for 32-33 billion passenger-km for the year
2000, and 30-34 billion pour 2010.
In this sector, the modal split is not expected to change, at least over the period studied:−−−Road and rail public transport should retain their present market share of 57 per cent.
Waterway transport (mentioned here because of its first place for leisure trips) should
continue to carry about 65 million passengers.
Air transport should see its traffic increase by 60-80 per cent by 2000 because of changes in
air routes in the region. Domestic air transport activities have increased, but this is charter
traffic and this mode is not of great significance (because of the size of the country).

International passenger traffic should grow strongly to the year 2000. No figures can be given,however, as growth will depend very much on uncertain factors, such as liberalisation of tourism.
However, international (diplomatic and economic) relations remain sensitive issues of importance forthe evolution of this sector. The war in the Balkans is also a far from negligible factor, as is theenlargement of the European Union. The question of visa applications has a considerable impact onpassenger traffic in eastern Europe.
For road transport, the number of vehicles entering Hungary in the mid-1990s is 10 million ayear.
Freight transport
According to the forecasts presented in the following table, there will be moderate growth of
freight transport to the year 2000. Over this period, international and transit traffic will grow at an
above average rate.
Forecast freight transport, 1985-2000
Billion tonne-km
2000
1985
Own accountTransport enterprises
Total
Of which: domestic
imports
exportstransit

5.48
42.64
48.12
21.65
9.54
5.27
11.66

Low
hypothesis
6.0
47.3
55.3
22.9
10.5
6.2
13.7
174

High
hypothesis
7.1
55.8
62.9
26.3
12.5
8.5
15.6

2000/1985 (%)
Low
Highhypothesis hypothesis
109
130
111
131
111
131
106
121
110
131
118
161
117
134

The following table shows trends in the transport market structure by mode. The railways are
expected to lose traffic to road haulage. Road traffic is expected to cease growing by 2000 as a resultof the increasing use of multimodal transport techniques. However, road haulage will remain in firstplace.

Trend in the freight market structure by mode, 1970-2000
Percentage
2000

Rail
Road
Waterway
Sea
Pipeline
Total

1970

1975

1980

1985

67.1
19.7
5.9
3.8
3.5
100

59.4
22.0
4.3
6.5
7.8
100

50.8
23.7
4.5
11.9
9.1
100

46.4
24.8
3.9
14.8
10.1
100

High
hypothesis
30.1
51.1
5.9
12.9
100

Low
hypothesis
29.9
50.9
6.0
13.2
100

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
The degradation of the transport infrastructures is due to the present economic crisis but also to
the fact that the development of infrastructures was relegated to a low priority in communist
economic policy. Furthermore, over the past decades the improvement of networks and services was
not based on the needs of domestic economic development.
At the beginning of the 1990s, the situation improved owing to privatisations, the investment ofprivate capital, the reform of institutional structures and the creation of a budget independent of thecentral government budget. Regulations were amended or developed, so that there is no longer any
obstacle to the creation of a development model compatible with the environment.
The shortage of capital remains a serious problem. It is at present impossible to solve theproblem created by insufficient capacity and even the total lack of certain elements in the networks.
This problem is a heavy burden for the Hungarian economy. Some regions are poorly connected tothe country’s main transport axes, investment is insufficient, and the levels of service required for
integration in the European Union cannot be achieved. Because of balance of payment difficulties,
sufficient resources cannot be allocated from the central budget.
To accelerate development, the Hungarian Ministry of Transport has launched a programme ofdevelopment of infrastructures for rolling stock, which authorises the state to initiate the developmentof those projects for which the need and the probability of a good return on capital are the greatest.
An investment plan to replace previous ones is now being drawn up. Changes are expected
mainly in the rail transit network and in motorways. These changes are urgent and necessary in orderfor the country to open up to the European Community and be integrated into the European Union.

175

Comparison of transport sector characteristics, Hungary-Austria, 1994
Hungary
4.1-6.0*
114.0
210.0
311.0
0.3
7 405.0
79.6
30.1

Per capita GDP in thousand US$
Population density (inhabitants/km²)
Cars/1 000 population
Motorways: km
Motorways: km/1000 km²
Rail: km²
Rail: km/1 000 km²
of which electrified (%)*

Austria
25.0
90.0
345.0
1 335.0
1.76
5 745.0
68.5
54.3

Figures corrected using the World Bank conversion method.

These figures must not obscure the present and expected future dynamism of road traffic,
however, for both passengers and freight. In this sector, the Hungarian authorities consider that,without the significant development of infrastructures, chaos is inevitable.
From the outset, investment projects are evaluated from the standpoint of their international
importance. They must conform to European plans (and standards) and obtain outside support in thisrespect from competent international bodies and regional programmes.

Rail infrastructures
In the case of international rail transport, the aim is to achieve speeds of 140-160 km/h. Forintercity links, speeds should be over 100 km/h.
There are two major rail projects:−

One is the Budapest-Hegyeshalom (Austrian border) line, which should permit trains tooperate at 160 km/h. The construction of this line in Hungary (178 km) will also make itpossible to travel from one capital to the other in two hours. The work, which began in 1993
and should be completed in 1998, also includes track safety equipment, modernisation andelectrification and the reconstruction of a maintenance and repair facility.
From the European standpoint, this project is a priority of the Hungarian Railways (MAV)
programme. In fact, most Hungarian tourists travel to Vienna. In addition, completion of thisproject will permit a connection with Greece.

−

The second major rail project concerns the Budapest-Kelebia (border with Serbia) line, whichis to be upgraded to permit speeds of 160-200 km/h. The work was started in 1993 andshould be completed in 1997. It comprises the construction of a second track, upgrading topermit higher train speeds, the construction of station buildings, the replacement of the oldsafety system and the installation of a new electrification system. It involves laying 140 kmof track for the line and 40 km for the stations, installing safety equipment at 19 stations,building subways for passengers and modifying the level crossings.

176

This project is part of the north-south Trans-European (TER) route, and this favours its
realisation (the project headquarters are in Budapest). This project to upgrade for high-speed
operation has the benefit of favourable terrain which makes it relatively inexpensive.
As regards the other investment projects of the MAV, modernisation of the network is tocontinue, with the construction of second tracks where necessary, electrification, and the promotionof combined transport with the construction of terminals. Rolling stock and automatic traffic control
are not forgotten in this general reconstruction plan.

Road infrastructures
The first priority is the motorway network, which does not yet exist. Another major objective isto relieve transit traffic through big towns by constructing bypasses. In the case of the capital, thisalso involves the construction of two bridges over the Danube, destined to be used by motorways.
One, as a completed section of the M0 bypass, is already in service. The other will not be built before
the end of the 1990s.
The projects involve five motorways. The first project is the extension of the M3 motorwayfrom Gyengyes (70 km east of Budapest) to Polgar in the direction of the border with Ukraine, or
110 km of two two-lane roads. This extension will not only permit connection with the CIS
countries, but will also serve the industrial region of northern and eastern Hungary. According to thegovernmental decision of October 1995, this motorway will be financed out of public funds. Workwill begin in 1996 and should be completed as far as Fezesabony (44 km) in 1998 and Polgar (69 km)
in 2003.
The extension of the M5 motorway (from south-east of Budapest to the border with Vojvodina)
has been split into separate sub-projects which could perhaps be implemented simultaneously. This
motorway carries traffic in the direction of Belgrade-Sofia-Istanbul. It is part of the European
north-south project (TEM) (see the annex map). From the standpoint of the domestic network, it
permits connection between the motorways of the southern and eastern parts of the country. The firstsection, between Ujhartyan and Lajosmizse (km 44 - km 74), will obtain a second lane. The bypass
around Kecskemet and an extension of 72 km of 2 x 2 lanes in the direction of the southern border is
to be built in at least two stages. A concession contract has been concluded for this project andconstruction should begin in 1996.
The other sub-projects provide for extending this motorway to the border (some 130 km in all).
The extension of the M7 motorway (from Balatonaliga, 90 km south-west of Budapest) to theborder with Croatia and Slovenia, has been split into three sub-projects of a total length of 141 km.
Depending on the sub-project, the work will involve adding a second lane, constructing 2 x 2
sections, or modifying intersections (eliminating level crossings in the case of the railways). This
motorway is a major road for the Hungarian tourism region of Lake Belaton and also takes traffic
heading for Zagreb and Ljubljana. The new sections of this motorway are not to be placed in service
before the end of the decade. The work should start in 1998 and be completed in 2003, because itcomes under the plan for Corridor IV.
The M1 motorway is to be extended to the Austrian border, from Gyer to Hegyeshalom. Thisroad is part of the international TEM project. From the domestic standpoint, it is an important part of177

the road system linking the developed industrial, agricultural and tourist regions and the capital. The
last missing section was opened in 1995. A link motorway (M15) will be constructed to join andextend a motorway planned by Slovakia to Rajka, a new border crossing. This last road is also part of
the TEM network and is included in the 1997 M1 concession contract.
The M0 motorway serves as a by-pass for Budapest. The aim is to link the different radial
motorways serving the capital. At present, a 30 km section is operational and links M1, M7 and M5.
The cost of construction was financed by the World Bank and an EBRD loan. The northern part ofthis project, with a bridge over the Danube, was to be built in 1996.
In addition to the infrastructure, the vehicle stock needs renewing;
responsibility of the central and local governments.

this is partly the

Question 3: Capacity problems
Rail transport
The Hungarian administration has indicated which sections of the domestic rail network carryheavy traffic. All are localised around Budapest, to the north-west and the south-east (see the annexmap). In 1990, the average volume of traffic over these sections was between 110 and 175 trains aday, corresponding to coefficients of utilisation of close to 90 per cent. Special mention must be
made of the section between Mezetur and Bekescsaba; with 65 trains a day, it has a coefficient ofutilisation of 93 per cent. This section of track is on the line from Budapest to the near-by Romanianborder.
According to the authorities, the capacity problems seem to be directly related to the technicalcharacteristics of the infrastructure, among which are: differences in track gauge and the low share ofelectrified lines (as compared with the international average). Another is the geographicalconfiguration of the network, which appears to be excessively centred on Budapest (star network).
However, the network density is close to the European average.
One consequence of the advanced age of the tracks is the reduced operating speeds (40 to
60 km/h) over some 20 per cent of the mainline network.
As a specific problem, the Hungarian rail network includes five bridges over the Danube. Twoallow passage to other vehicles, while a third, in the north, is only semi-permanent. Four of the fiveare single-track; only the bridge to the south of Budapest is double-track. The total length of thesebridges is 2 442 m. Six other bridges cross different arms of the Danube; one is used only by the
Csepel express line and is the only double-track bridge; three others are also road bridges (the total
length of these bridges is 628 m).
Of the seven railway bridges over the Tisza, only one (at Szolnok) is double-track and two others
are also road bridges. The total length of these bridges is 1 243 m.
On all the bridges used by both road and rail traffic over the Danube and the Tisza, and on thenorthern rail bridge in Budapest, trains are limited to 10 km/h. On most of these bridges,
maintenance, and in particular protection against corrosion, is not properly carried out. Moreover, inmost cases the arches are too narrow and too low for navigation by sea-going craft.
178

The major investment projects to be implemented in the rail sector in the near future are as
follows:−−−

construction of the connection (22 km of new track in Hungary) between Hungary andSlovenia as part of Transport Corridor V;
increase in the length of electrified track (some 245 km);development of communications centres (Hungary is to gradually develop nine centres).

The second project is in preparation; the aim is to relocate the combined transport terminals in
the centre of Budapest to the outskirts.
Technical obsolescence and the poor state of installations also concern the sidings andmarshalling yards. The situation seems quite serious throughout the network: inadequate rail loading
capacity, too short tracks, unsuitable safety equipment, few lines permitting simultaneous
movements, little or no mechanisation, old and damaged tracks. The rolling stock maintenance sheds
are also in a dilapidated state. Station facilities have remained at the standard of 50 years ago.
Lastly, the telecommunications system also needs upgrading.

Road transport
The heavily travelled sections of international routes had average traffic volumes in 1990 of justover 10 000 to just under 19 000 vehicle-equivalent units a day, corresponding to an average capacity
utilisation rate of 85 per cent (see the annex map). In 1990, the most heavily travelled section(18 900 vehicle-equivalent units, 114 per cent capacity utilisation) was a relatively short stretch to thenorth of Budapest, between the capital and Vac, close to the border with Slovakia. Another section
parallels the M3 extension project, as does the route, further south, heading to Ukraine, which is also
partly overloaded. In the tourist region of Lake Belaton, the route of another motorway project (M7),is also cited among the saturated sections. To the north and parallel with this route, difficulties arereported in the direction of the Austrian border.
Despite significant, and at the time adequate, development between 1970 and 1980, the qualityof the roads is not up to the standards required by the increasing traffic. Road surfacing was the firstto suffer from cuts in the resources allocated to road maintenance and development in the 1990s. The
deterioration of the roads is leading, as with the railways, to various problems: more congestion,
increasing fuel consumption, wasted time, pollution, accidents, rising maintenance costs.
The shortcomings of the trunk road network, already reported as the most worrying in the mid1980s, range from capacity problems on two-lane roads (saturated over 440 km) and the many levelcrossings, to the need to build cycle paths or to upgrade almost 4 000 bridges because of theirinadequate carrying capacity. Over a length of 12 000 km, the trunk road network seems to have an
inadequate capacity and surfaces that are incompatible with road safety. Lastly, on the internationalroutes classified E in Hungary, 1 400 km do not meet the standards required by the agreements.
The overall structure of the Hungarian road network suffers from the small number of bridges
over the Danube and the Tisza and by the lack of quality roads linking the major towns and regions.
Like the rail network, the road network is considered to be too much centred on Budapest.

179

There are few places where the roads are configured to separate traffic according to vehicle
speed or category or according to whether it is local or transit traffic. Few towns have bypasses.
The density of the national road network is 320 km/1 000 km², which is low compared with theaverage for European countries (557 km/1 000 km² ).
The Hungarian road network has over 11 000 bridges, but half have neither adequate loading
capacity nor sufficient width, so that certain vehicles must often make long detours. A large
proportion of these bridges are old, in poor repair and inadequately protected against corrosion.

Question 4: Measures
The primary aim of the transport sector investment projects in Hungary is the upgrading andreconstruction of infrastructure and equipment. However, Hungary’s transport policy is also aimed atensuring that the transport system develops favourably with respect to criteria such as network
capacities, environmental protection and energy consumption.
In Hungary’s present situation, this means maintaining or even developing public transport (rail,bus, urban transport), despite the growing number of private cars. The general transport policy thus
conceived takes account of the consequences of this growth.
No measures to limit passenger transport demand are envisaged at present:−−in domestic traffic, because no growth is expected for the moment;
in international traffic, because it corresponds to the political and economic objectives of
opening up the country and is an important source of revenue.

However, certain restrictions on car traffic are envisaged for town centres that are alreadysaturated.
In the freight sector, the planned modernisation of the structure of production in Hungary willprobably affect growth of the volume of transport services supplying local demand, which will
increase significantly. Transit traffic will no doubt increase significantly and will then receive
particular attention.
Among the other actions concerning this sector, institutional and regulatory changes permit the
introduction of market mechanisms: change of status of certain transport enterprises, recourse to theconcession system. Regulations having any kind of impact on the investment of private capital havebeen prepared and the most important have taken the form of laws. These changes will also lead tochanges in demand.

180

IRELAND
2

Area: 69 000 km
Population: 3 600 000

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Ireland is an island among islands, as the Irish say, and for this reason, is increasingly dependent
on its ports and airports for trade. Inland freight and passenger transport uses the road system.
However, Ireland has not provided much data on modal split, and the forecasts in documents ontransport policy only cover air and sea traffic, apparently the only kinds to be taken into account forplanning investment in infrastructure.

Road traffic
Road transport is the dominant mode for domestic passenger and freight traffic, except in certain
corridors or for certain freight flows.
Freight traffic
Road freight traffic represents 89 per cent of total freight traffic in Ireland.

Trends in road freight traffic, 1989-92

1989
1990
1991
1992

Million tonnes
83.50
81.10
80.10
83.85

Annual change (%)
+1.3
-2.9
-1.2
+4.7

181

Million t-km
5 478.7
5 776.0
5 138.0
5 150.0

Annual change (%)
+9.5
+5.4
-11.0
+0.2

Numbers of commercial vehicles (over 8 tonnes), 1989-93
Thousand vehicles
130 020143 166
148 331
144 798
135 225

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
% 93/89

Annual change (%)
+9.5
+10.1
+3.6
-2.4
-6.6
+15.2

Passenger transport
Public and private road transport covers 96 per cent of domestic passenger flows.

Mobility of commercial and private vehicles
and numbers of private vehicles, 1989-93
Million vehicle-km and numbers

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
% 93/89

Vehicles-km(millions)
23 68424 89625 25526 27027 350

Annualchange (%)
+8.4
+5.1
+1.4
+4.0
+4.1
+15.5

Private vehicles(thousands)
773 396796 408
836 583
858 498
891 027% 93/89

Annual change
(%)
+3.2
+3.0
+5.0
+2.6
+3.8
+15.2

Road transport by bus, 1989-93

Thousands of trips
Annual change (%)

1989
224 525-0.7

1990
231 280+3.0

1991
237 318+2.6

1992
240 896+1.5

1993
231 773-3.8% 93/89+4

Rail traffic
Freight transport
Freight traffic stood at 570 million tonne-km in 1994, 1 per cent down on the previous year
(ECMT figures).

182

Trends in rail freight traffic, 1989-93

Million tonnes
Annual change (%)
Million tonne-km

1989
3 067
555.94

1990
3 278
+6.9
588.55

1991
3 312
+1.0
602.58

1992
3 333
+0.6
633.26

1993
3 061
-8.16
574.56% 93/89-0.2+3.35

Passenger transport
Passenger traffic stood at 1.26 billion passenger-km in 1994, 1 per cent down on the previous
year (ECMT figures).

Trends in passenger rail traffic, 1989-93

Thousand trips
Annual change (%)

1989
26 309+3.2

1990
26 767+1.7

1991
26 837+0.3

1992
25 837-3.7

1993
26 143+1.18% 93/89-0.6

However, the planned investment in this mode should result in a significant rise in passenger
traffic, from 7.9 million passengers in 1993 to 8.7 million in 1999.

Air traffic
Air transport accounts for 75 per cent of the total traffic in and out of Ireland.

Trends in air traffic in international and domestic airports, 1989-93

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
% variation 1993/89

International traffic
MillionAnnual change
passengers
(%)
7.20
+13.0
7.85
+9.0
7.47
-5.0
8.16
+9.2
8.37
+2.6
+16.3

183

Domestic traffic
ThousandAnnual change
passengers
(%)
413
+49.0
484
+17.2
371
-23.3
273
-25.0
236
-13.6
-42.9

The benefits of the infrastructure development work planned in the Operational Programme forTransport (OPT) are expected to include a considerable rise in traffic in the period 1994-99.
Passenger traffic at Dublin airport is expected to increase by 6 per cent a year and at Cork andShannon airports by 4 per cent. Freight traffic should rise by 6 per cent a year over the same period atthese three airports.

Freight and passenger traffic forecasts at the international airports

AirportDublinShannonCork
Total

Passenger traffic (millions)1993 (actual
1996
1999
traffic)(forecasts)(forecasts)
5.94
7.19
8.16
1.71
1.70
1.89
0.72
0.79
0.88
8.37
9.68
10.93

Freight traffic (tonnes)
1993 (actual
1996
1999
traffic)(forecasts)(forecasts)
65 29077 05091 75026 31026 05031 100
2 500
2 550
3 000
94 100105 650
125 850

Maritime traffic
Maritime transport is still the main mode of transport for freight traffic in and out of Ireland,
except in the case of light freight or goods with high added value.
Irish ports handle 76 per cent of Ireland’s total volume of commercial trade, but only 60 per centof exports by value.

Freight traffic in international commercial ports and in local ports, 1989-93

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
% variation 1993/89

Commercial ports
Annual change
Million tonnes
(%)
13.50
+6.0
14.37
+6.4
14.29
-0.6
14.57
+2.0
15.80
+8.4
+17.03

Local ports
Annual change
Million tonnes
(%)
11.40
11.70
+2.6
11.95
+2.1
12.51
+4.7
12.56
+0.4
+10.2

The port development measures planned in the OPT should enable the commercial ports toincrease their volume of activity. The total freight tonnage handled in the ports should increase by
11.3 million tonnes by the end of the year 2000. The increase in traffic will be split as follows:

184

Mode
Ro/Ro
Lo/Lo
Bulk
Total

1993 forecasts(million tonnes)
2.91
3.43
20.87
27.21

Increase forecast
by 2000
+1.48
+1.41
+8.30
+11.19

According to these forecasts, traffic is set to rise by 75 000 Ro/Ro units and 94 000 Lo/Lo units.
The Irish authorities also predict 5 per cent annual growth in passenger traffic. Some of thesemeasures will also reduce maritime and port costs by at least 15 per cent (in real terms).

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment
Following the 1989-93 Operational Programme on Peripherality (OPP), Ireland’s new
development plan for the period 1994-99 is the OPT.

Review of OPP
The impact of the OPP on the economy and on transport has been very positive. For a total
investment of £990 million, 9 000 stable jobs are expected to be created and GDP to rise by
0.4 per cent.
Through these investments, 450 km of primary roads have also been upgraded, as well as
1 700 km of roads on routes along which there has been high growth in industry and tourism. There
has also been heavy investment in the international and domestic airports and this could increase
traffic. Likewise, the new facilities at the ports of Dublin, Cork, Waterford and Rosslare (and also insome local ports) should lead to a sharp rise in passenger and freight transport.
With regard to rail transport, there has been an improvement in traffic conditions, notably withthe start of the Dublin-Belfast project, the resumption of work on Dublin’s suburban west lines andthe granting of subsidies for freight services.

The new OPT investment programme
The programme has four main aims:−−−−

to increase the emphasis on public transport;
to pursue the development of primary national network roads, but as a lower priority;
to pay greater attention to “non-national” (local network) roads;
to continue investing in the international ports and airports.

The planned initiatives are split into two sub-programmes, National Economic Development andSub-regional Economic Development.

185

− The first covers investment plans for infrastructure and facilities in the transport sectors that
the Irish authorities consider to be strategic, i.e. mainly the national road network, main
railway lines, commercial ports and international airports.
− The second concerns the investment required in transport infrastructure and equipment at subregional level and in the priority municipalities. This mainly involves the “non-national”
road network, regional ports and the Dublin Transport Initiative.

Descriptions of existing infrastructures
Road network
The infrastructure investment programmes examine road infrastructures from three angles: typeof road, population served and commercial and industrial activities in the region.
− First are the primary national roads, linking ports, airports, main towns and highly populated
regions. They only represent 3 per cent of the total network in length, but they carry
26 per cent of total traffic.
− The secondary national roads link medium-sized towns and less densely populated regions to
the primary network, thus providing a network spread more evenly across the country. Their
total length is exactly the same as the primary network (3 per cent of the total length of the
network), but they carry only 12 per cent of total traffic.
− The other roads form the “non-national” network. These are the regional roads, county roads
and urban roads, which form an extensive network that is 94 per cent of the total length of the
network (county roads account for 80 per cent). The areas served are sparsely populated, andtotal traffic on these roads hardly exceeds 60 per cent.
Rail network
There are 2 000 km of lines, only 520 km of which are double track. Only 40 km of suburbanlines are presently electrified. Despite this, the Irish authorities consider that rail transport has animportant public service role to play in linking populations. There are direct train services to the fourmain towns (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway) from 38 of the 53 towns with 5 000 or more
inhabitants and 49 of the 99 towns with 2 000 or more inhabitants.
The rail freight terminals are located in strategic areas (heavily industrialised or close tocommercial ports and international airports). There are also 14 combined transport terminals,
including one in Belfast.
The Irish rail network is highly standardised in terms of rail gauge throughout the Republic of
Ireland and Northern Ireland.

OPT investment plans
Total planned investment represents ECU 1.406 billion, of which 0.827 billion for the National
Economic Development sub-programme and 0.578 billion for the Sub-regional Economic

186

Development sub-programme. The distribution of funds within each of these sub-programmes isshown on the table below in MECU.

Measures
Primary national roads
Secondary national roads
Main railway lines
International airports
Commercial ports
Technical assistance
Total

National economic
development
496.510131.990
72.45047.78072.1907.030
827.950

MeasuresNon-national roads
Dublin Transport Initiative
Regional ports
Total

Sub-regional
development
278.100
279.160
21.020578.280

Road infrastructure
The new investment programme for the primary network focuses on four corridors:−−−−

the north/south corridor, including Euroroutes E01 and E30 and national roads N1, N11, andN25;
the south/west corridor, including Euroroutes E20 and E201 and national roads N7, N8, N18
and N19;
the east/west corridor, corresponding to national roads N4, N6 and N16;
the west corridor, corresponding to national roads N17, N18, N24 and N25.

The Annex at the end of the report gives a breakdown of the planned investment in primarynational roads.
The work planned on the secondary network concerns a small number of roads considered to be
the most important for the country’s economic development.
Firstly, it concerns sections of roads connected to the four corridors or to primary national roads
and therefore two sections of the national roads N52 and N80.
It is also planned to upgrade:−−−−

the N56 which serves the major fisheries of the port of Killybegs;
the section of the N59 between Galway and Clifden which serves an important tourist area;
the N61 between Athlone and Boyle;
the N69 between Limerick and Foynes, which offers access to strategic ports on the estuary of
the Shannon river;− the N70, Ireland’s main tourist route;− the N71 between Cork and Killarney, a major route for tourism and for the economic
development of the western suburbs of Cork;− the N76 between Kilkenny and Clonmel.

187

The same type of improvements are planned on both the primary and secondary national roads:
widening, realignment and reconstruction of sections in poor repair. It is also planned to upgrade thedrainage and surfacing on some roads, provide bypasses and improve safety by installing certain
equipment, etc.
Rail infrastructure
The four types of work that are planned should significantly improve the efficiency of the lines
and the quality of the service offered to passengers:
−
−

−

−

Repairing the track: timber sleepers will be replaced by the more modern and cost-effective
concrete sleepers on more than 650 km of track.
Renovating the infrastructure: the focus will be on raising a number of bridges, including
those on the Dublin-Belfast line, to allow containers to be carried on the entire railway
network.
Modernising the signalling system: the present signalling system will be replaced by a more
modern system with electronic and radio centralised traffic control. The new system will be
installed on more than 500 km of track and will greatly improve safety and profitability.
Replacing rolling stock: the introduction of modern electric and diesel rolling stock will
provide a greater traction capacity with lower operating costs and greater reliability with lessenergy consumption: 30 of the 126 locomotive in the fleet will be replaced.

All these measures will improve rail services overall, particularly by cutting running times, as
shown by the forecasts below.

Improvement in rail services to and from Dublin
Station (km from Dublin)
Belfast (183)
Sligo (218)
Waterford (180)
Cork (266)Tralee (333)
Limerick (208)
Galway (209)Rosslare (167)
Westport (264)Time saved in minutes(year)
20 (1996)
30 (1999)
25 (1998)
15 (1996)
20 (1999)
10 (1996)
15 (1998)
10 (1999)
10 (1999)

Estimated journey time
01:35
02:45
01:50
02:15
03:15
01:50
02:15
02:35
03:10

Question 3: Capacity problems
andQuestion 4: Measures
The operational programmes OPP and OPT aim to eliminate road and rail congestion problems,
facilitate interconnection between modes, try to ensure a regional balance, improve road safety andencourage a modal split in favour of public transport (thereby reducing the problems of pollution).
188

Consequently, the authorities are exploring various scenarios in order to identify the mostappropriate ways of improving the national situation. Hence the adoption of the Dublin Transport
Initiative (DTI), as the figures showed that it would ultimately generate more benefits than anotherplan.
Expected benefits from applying the DTI
Percentage change

Trips in area studied:- car trips- public transport trips
Trips in central Dublin:- car trips- public transport trips
Public transport modal split:- in areas studied- in central Dublin
Congestion
Accessibility:- central Dublin- area studied
Accidents
Pollution:
- HC
- NOx
- CO
- C02
Energy consumption

Peak hours
in 2001

Off-peak hours
in 2001

Peak hours
in 2011

Off-peak hours
in 2011

-8
+17

-4
+9

-8
+20

-4
+13

-23
+30

-8
+20

-23
+34

-8
+27

33/39
44/57
-9

28/31
29/34
+10

29/35
41/55
-18

23/26
24/30
+8

+18
+14
-10

+33
+10
-5

+21
+15
-11

+17
+9
-6

-37
-1
-6
-5
-4

-17
+4
+2
+6
-1

-37
-2
-10
-11
-4

-20
+3
+4
+4
-1

189

AnnexIndicative Projects: National Primary Roads
Selection of major improvement projects planned to begin and/or becompleted in the period 1994-99

N 1 DUBLIN/DUNDALK/BORDER
Dunleer-Dundalk (Louth)
Provision of a new motorway, together witha link road to the N2 south of Ardee
Balbriggan Bypass (Dublin)
New motorway by pass of Balbriggan fromthe Five Roads to Gormanstown
N 1 /N 11 /M50 DUBLIN RING ROAD
Southern Cross Route (Dun Laoghaire
Rathdown)
Mainly new motorway from the N11 to theN81 (Western Parkway)
South Eastern Motorway(Dun Laoghaire Rathdown)
Final link in the Dublin Ring Road. New
dual carriageway motorway from Sandyford
to the N ll at Shankill
Northern Cross Route (Fingal)
New dual carriageway motorway from the
N3 to the Nl
Northern Cross Route Extension(Fingal)New single carriageway from the Nl to the
Malahide RoadN2 DUBLIN/MONAGHAN/BORDER
North Road, Finglas (Dublin)
Extension of the existing dual carriageway
from Mellowes Road to the Dublin Ring
Road
Broomfield/Castleblayney
Single carriageway realignment of theexisting road from Broomfield toCastleblayney
N3 DUBLIN/CAVAN
Cavan Bypass
Bypass of Cavan town from Tullytoe tonorth of Butlers Bridge

Actual position

LengthEstimated
date ofconstruction

Estimated
cost

Motorway scheme

16 km

1996 - 2001

£64 m

Motorway scheme
approved

11.5 km1995 - 1998

£36 m

Motorway scheme
approved. Start delayed
pending outcome ofHigh Court action on
motorways theme.
Preliminary design

12.5 km1995 - 1999

£61 m

9 km

1998 - 2000

£44 m

Under construction

9.8 km- 1996£58 m

In planning

3.4 km1995-1997£7 m

Under construction

1.8 km1994 - 1995

£10 m

Under construction

6.2 km- 1995£7 m

Preliminary design

9.5 km1997-1999£7.5 m190

N4 DUBLIN/SLIGO
Lucan/Kilcock (Kildare)
Provision of new dual carriageway
motorway from the Lucan Bypass to west of
Kilcock
Curlews (Roscommon and Sligo)
Single carriageway from east of Boyle tosouth of Castelbaldwin
Colleoney/Sligo Stage 2 (Sligo)
New dual carriageway from the N17/N4
Collooney Bypass to Carraroe
Drumsna/Jamestown (Leitrim)
Single carriageway bypass of Drumsna andJamestown
Longford Bypass (Longford)
New single carriageway from the Dublin
Road to the Sligo Road
N5 LONGFORD/CASTLEBAR
Swinford Bypass (Mayo)
Single carriageway bypass of Swinford from
Lisackagh to Cloonlara
N6 KINNEGAD/GALWAY
Eastern Approach Road Stage 3 (Galway)
Merlin Park - Ballybane dual carriageway,remaining link of the Oranmore - Galway
Eastern Approach Road
Loughrea Bypass (Galway)
Bypass to the north of the town of Loughrea
N7 DUBLIN/LIMERICK
Nenagh Bypass (Tipperary NR)
New single carriageway from Five Alley on
the Limerick side of Nenagh to west of
Lissanisky Cross on the Dublin side and alink road from the NS2 at Carty's Cross tothe existing N7 on the Limerick side of
NenaghNewbridge Bypass/Kilcullen Link
(Kildare)Motorway bypass of Newbridge joining theNaas Bypass to the Curragh dual
carriageway and motorway bypass ofKilcullen from Newbridge Bypass to the N9south of Kilcullen
Roscrea Bypass Stage 2 (Tipperary NR)
Construction of new single carriageway
bypass of Roscrea from the completed StageI (at the roundabout on the Templemore
Road - N62) to the N7 at Racket Hall*

Under construction

17.6 km- 1995£61 m

CPO made

16.5 km

1996- 1999

£16.6 mCPO approved

8.8 km1994 - 1997

£23 m

Under construction

7.2 km1994- 1996

£8 m

Under construction

5.4 km- 1994£7.4 mUnder construction

6.6 km- 1994£8.7 m

CPO approved

2.3 km1995 - 1996

£6 m

Preliminary design

3.7 km1996 - 1998

£6 m

Preliminary design

16 km

1995 - 1998

£18 m

Under construction*

18.5 km- 1994£63 m

Under construction

2.4 km- 1995£6.5 mNewbridge By Pass has been officially opened (1993) and the Kilcullen Link is due for completion in 1994.

191

Naas Road Interchanges (Kildare andDublin)CPO made(a) Provision of an underpass at Johnstown
junction and an overpass it Kill junction tocater for traffic movements at theselocations
CPO approved(b) Provision of an overpass at Rathcoole/
Saggart to cater for traffic movements off
N7
Kildare Bypass (Kildare)
Motorway scheme made
Motorway bypass of Kildare Town
Portlaoise Bypass (Laois)
Under construction
New motorway from the Dublin Road (N7)at the Heath to the Limerick Road (N7) at
Clonboyne and intersecting the Cork Road
(N8) at Togher
N8 PORTLOISE/CORKSouthern Ring Road (Cork)
Under construction/
partly completed
New dual carriageway from Rochestown
Road via Douglas to the Kinsale Road andextending to the N71 at Bishopstown
Downstream Crossing (Cork)
At tender stage
New tunnel beneath the River Lee
connecting the existing road network on thenorth side of the river via the Dunkettle
Roundabout to the road network on the south
via the Southern Ring Road
N9 NAAS/WATERFORD
Bolton Hill (Kildare)
Under construction
Improvement between Kilcullen and Carlow
at Bolton Hill
N 11 DUBLIN/WEXFORD
Arklow Bypass (Wicklow)
CPO approved
New dual carriageway bypass of Arklow
Enniscorthy/Wexford (Wexford)
Under construction
Single carriageway realignment between
Enniscorthy and Wexford
Kilmacanogue - Glen of the Dowas
Preliminary design(Wicklow)
New dual carriageway and associatedinterchange roads connecting existing dual
carriageways at Glen of the Downs andGlencormac
N15 SLIGO/DONEGAL
Donagal Bypass (Donegal)
CPO made
Single carriageway bypass of Donegal Town
N18 LIMERICK/GALWAY
Setright’s Cross (Clare)
Under construction
Provision of a grade-separated interchange
comprising a bridge over the existing dual
carriageway and 1 km of ancillary roads

192

1995 - 1996

£13 m

12 km

1995 - 1999

£45 m

14 km

- 1997

£44 m

8 km

-1995

£41 m

-

1995-1999£86 m

4.1 km- 1995£4.5 m

12 km

1995 - 1998

£39 m

8.3 km- 1994£7.3 m

6 km

1996 -1999£17.5 m8.3 km1996 - 1999

£12 m

-

- 1994£5.4 mN20 CORK/LIMERICK
Patrickswell/Limerick (Limerick)10.9 km of new dual carriageway and 3 kmof single carriageway from Childers Road to
the Lantern Lodge plus 3.2 km of associatedsingle carriageway ancillary roads
CorklMallow Stage 2 (Cork)l0 km of single and 5 km of dual
carriageway linking Commons Road in Cork
City and Rathduff via BlarneyBlackpool Bypass Stage 2 (Cork)
New four lane link between the improved
Leitrim Street, via the Northern Ring Road
and the Pole Field, to the Mallow RoadN2 I LIMERICK/TRALEE
Castleisland/Ballycarthy/Tralee (Kerry)
Improvements between Castlelsland andTralee, including a new dual carriageway
between Ballycarthy and Tralee
N22 CORK/KILLARNEY/TRALEE
Minish/Clonkeen(Kerry)
New single carriageway on a new alignment
from the junction with the N72 at
Lissyvigeen to connect with the completedroad at Curraglass
Sliabh Riach (Cork)
Realignment of roadway from Ballyvourneyto the Kerry County boundary
N24 LIMERICK/CAHIR/WATERFORD
Clonmel Relief Road Stage 2 (Tipperary
SR)
Single carriageway completion of an innerbypass of Clonmel linking the completed
Stage I to the N24 east and west of the town
Piltown/Fiddown (Kilkenny)
Road realignment bypassing Piltown and
Fiddown
New Ross/Wexford (Barntown)(Wexford)
Realignment of 6.7 km of single
carriageway between Harristown Little andBarntown and improvement of 1.5 km of
single carriageway between Barntown andBallindinas roundabout
Dunkettle/Carrigtwohill (Cork)
New dual carriageway from Dunkettle to theexisting dual carriageway east of
Carrigtwohill linking with the N8 Glanmire
BypassPreliminary design

13.9 km1996 -1999£34.2 mUnder construction

I5 km- 1995£510 m

CPO approved

2 km

1997 - 2000

£15 m

Preliminary design

ll.5 km1996 -1999£21.3 mUnder construction

10 km- 1997£15.5 mUnder construction

6 km- 1996£8.4 mUnder construction

8.5 km- 1996£9 m

Preliminary design

7.5 km1996 - 1998

£8 m

CPO approved

8.2 km1994 - 1996

£7.5 mUnder construction

10.6 km- 1997£48.5 m193

OTHER ROUTES
Mulcon Valley (Cork)
New single carriageway link road to
Ringaskiddy Port from the Southern Ring
Road
Dublin Port Access Route (Dublin)
Improved access to Dublin Port

Under construction

3 km- 1995£8.3 mAssessment of route
options

n/a

1998- 2000

n/a

194

ITALY
Surface area: 294 000 km²
Population: 57 700 000

Italy’s General Transport Plan (GTP), established in 1986, was updated in 1991 and approved inAugust 1992.
GDP rose by 3.2 per cent in 1995, following the general recovery in the Italian economy since
1994, with a positive GDP balance of 2.2 per cent overcompared with the previous year. The
recovery began to be felt from the second half of 1993, owing to positive trends in international trade,the depreciation of the lira and the modernisation of the productive system.
The economic outlook for 1995 is generally positive, although international forecasts for 1996
predicted a Europe-wide cyclical downturn which would affect industrial production and exports andwould therefore lead to slower growth. The latest OECD data indicate GDP growth of 2.8 per centfor Europe and 2.6 per cent for Italy.
For Italy, the main developments in 1995 were:− strong growth in industrial output, up 5 per cent on 1994;− a decline in domestic consumption from 1.7 to 0.5 per cent, despite a substantial increase inexports (up 10.5 % on 1994);− a 10.8 per cent upswing in investment (double the 1994 figures);− export-led growth (exports totalled 30 % of total industrial output).
To sum up, the Italian economy overall showed major disparities, with strong growth in thenorth and stagnation in the south.
Statistics supplied by ISTAT, the National Statistics Institute, show the importance of thetransport sector to the Italian economy in terms of value added, investment and jobs.
− In terms of value added:
Transport sector value added totalled Lit 96.17 billion in 1994, or 6.17 per cent in terms ofGDP. It has increased steadily as a share of GDP over the past ten years, as it has in othercountries of Europe where value added amounts on average to 6 per cent.
− In terms of investment:
New trends have emerged in manufacturing industry capital expenditure, with investment
rising in the transport sector from - 1.3 to + 8.1 per cent, and in the industrial machinery andindustrial engineering sector from 6.79 to 12.7 per cent in response to renewed growth indemand for rolling stock (trains) and HGVs.
195

− In terms of jobs:
The number of jobs in the sector fell by 2.4 per cent, owing to rationalisation in the public
transport sector.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
The latest data on medium- and long-haul domestic traffic in the 1995 Transport Accounts
confirm the growth trend in both freight and passenger traffic. The statistics also show the
predominance of road transport, despite a slight decline in this mode’s share of total freight traffic
compared with rail. Road transport’s share of freight traffic actually fell to 61.4 per cent, comparedwith 61.8 per cent in 1993. However, in absolute terms, the volume of freight carried by road isincreasing steadily.

Passenger transport
The statistics for 1994 differentiate public and private passenger transport.
For intercity traffic, rail (intercity service) carries the largest share of public transport traffic.
However, for intercity transport overall, the private car is still the main mode of transport andaccounted for 70.5 per cent of traffic in passenger-kilometres in 1994.
Passenger transport has increased by 1.9 per cent between 1993 and 1994, all modes combined.
Figure 1. Modal split in public passenger transport in 1994

Railway franchises
2%

FS
39%
Buses
51%

Air
6%

Cabotage
2%

Source: ECMT.

196

Road traffic
Some 1 100 public passenger transport firms provide local service in Italy. In terms of numbersof passengers carried, their share of traffic declined by 7.2 per cent over the period 1990-93.
Between 1994 and 1995, overall road traffic increased by 3.5 per cent in terms of vehicle
1
numbers. Light vehicle traffic, on the other hand, increased by 39 per cent over the same period andis expected to increase by 10.1 per cent from the year 2000 to 2005, at an annual growth rate of
1.9 per cent.
Trends in medium- and long-haul domestic road transport
Million passenger-kilometres

1970
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Buses
22 74837 43643 94856 11158 83961 22761 69864 122

Private cars
130 174
202 530
233 738
275 869
282 207289 687294 542300 140

Rail traffic
The share of traffic carried by rail franchises is negligible and concerns only inter-regionaltransport over distances of less than 50 km.
In 1994, express rail services increased their share, in terms of passenger-kilometres, by
3.8 per cent over 1993 figures. However, their share of passenger traffic had declined by 2.6 per centbetween 1992 and 1993.
Rail mobility in 1994 has been calculated at 107.5 km/passenger.
Trends in domestic medium- and long haul rail traffic
Million passenger-kilometres

1970
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

FS
32 45739 58737 40145 51346 42748 36147 10148 900197

Rail franchises
2 406
3 356
2 908
2 780
2 769
2 786
2 817
2 880

The volume of traffic carried by the Italian national railways (FS) rose by 1.9 per cent over theperiod 1994-95. This increase in mobility appeared when FS became a joint-stock company pursuant
to Law No. 42 of 1990.
Forecasts for FS traffic to the year 2000 were based on two “infrastructure-related” assumptions.
The “high” capacity scenario assumes that new high-speed lines will be operational by the year 2004,
the “low” capacity scenario assumes that they will not be.

Average annual growth in FS passenger services
1990-1995
1996-2000
2000-2004

1.6 %
1 % (low capacity assumption)
4 % (high capacity assumption)

Air traffic
While domestic air traffic saw a slight downturn in 1994 (of 0.2 per cent compared with 1993),
international air traffic increased by 5.5 per cent between 1994 and 1995. Overall, however, airtransport is the mode that shows the highest growth: 67 per cent since 1985.
The trend is the same for air freight traffic.

Figure 2. Trends in domestic medium- and long-haul air traffic
Millions of passenger-kilometres

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

198

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1985

1980

1970

0

Maritime traffic
Passenger transport by ferry is only significant locally. Ferries provide regular services to the
Italian islands, particularly Sardinia. While the volume of traffic carried by national shipping lines
fell by 10 per cent between 1994 and 1995, it increased by 20 per cent on international lines.

Figure 3. Medium- and long-haul ferry traffic, 1970-94
Millions of passenger-kilometres

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1985

1980

1970

0

Freight traffic
In 1994, freight traffic was 4.4 per cent higher than in the previous year. In volume terms, allmodes saw an increase in traffic over the past few years, but only rail increased its market share.
Although internal waterway traffic declined by half over the period 1970-90, a 50 per centincrease between 1992 (the worst year) and 1994 seems to indicate the beginnings of a recovery.
With traffic totalling 98 million tonne-km, this mode’s share of domestic transport overall (mediumand long-haul) is negligible (0.06 per cent).
The same can be said of air transport, which carried 24 million tonnes in 1994, or the equivalentof a market share of 0.01 per cent.
In terms of international traffic, the predominant flows in volume terms were import flows, at
270 million tonnes, compared with 90 million tonnes of exports in 1994. In terms of value, thereverse is true since, for all modes together, export flows were valued at Lit 305 million comparedwith Lit 270 million for import flows.
A quarter of the total volume of imports (56 per cent by value) comes from European Union
member states. For intra-Community imports, Italy’s main trading partners in 1993 were Germany,
France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

199

Figure 4. Modal split in freight traffic in 1994

Air
0%

FS
13%

Cabotage
19%

Inlandwaterway0%

Oil pipeline> 50 km7%

Road transport > 50 km
61%

Source: ECMT.

Modal split in import and export flows in 1993
Position
1st
2nd
3rd

Value
road
sea
rail

Quantity
sea
road
rail

The imbalance between the volume and value of imports from other European countries is
attributable to the weak lira. For imports from the rest of the world, the situation is reversed:
75 per cent by volume and 44 per cent by value.
The main trading partners for exports were as above, with Spain replacing the Netherlands.
Road traffic
Domestic traffic is mainly composed of medium- and short-haul flows, according to a roadfreight traffic survey which demonstrated that the points of origin and destination of 71.8 per cent offlows were located in the same region.
Road’s modal share in freight transport is virtually the same regardless of the region. As aresult, unlike rail, road is used for freight movements equally frequently in all of Italy’s regions.

200

Figure 5. Road freight traffic trends since 1970
Million tonne-km

120000100000
80000
60000
40000
20000

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1985

1980

1970

0

International road traffic is more or less equally divided between imports (38.9 million tonnes)
and exports (38.4 million tonnes). Road transport, which accounted for 43.57 per cent of the total
volume of exports in 1993, is its only serious competitor (maritime transport accounts for
50.06 per cent of this traffic). Road’s share in the total volume of imports is much smaller, at only
15.16 per cent.
From 1994 to 1995, HGV traffic on the national road network increased by 5.79 per cent.
Forecasts for the period 1995-2000 estimate an increase in HGV traffic of 14.7 per cent, i.e. an annual
growth rate of 2.8 per cent. These figures confirm the growth trend in this mode, although at a slower
pace than in previous years.
Rail traffic
Forward studies have shown a strong correlation between freight mobility and GDP growth. An
analysis of the data for the period 1994-95 confirms this. FS traffic increased by 11.6 per cent interms of train-kilometres, 11.8 per cent in terms of tonne-km and 13.6 per cent in terms of tonnage
carried. With a modal share of 12.57 per cent of traffic, FS strengthened its position on the freighttransport market in 1994 compared with road transport.
Overall, rail freight flows on the public rail network have increased steadily since 1980. Traffic
grew by 30.7 per cent between 1980 and 1994, peaking at 39.3 per cent in the period 1985-94. In
1995, rail flows were again up a very substantial 12.3 per cent on 1994.
Domestic rail freight traffic in 1993 amounted to 21.9 million tonnes (statistics in accordancewith European Directive EEC 1177/80), i.e. 31.9 per cent of the total volume of freight traffic. This
represents a rise of 27.1 per cent since 1985.

201

Average annual growth in FS freight services
1990-1995
1996-2000
2000-2004

2.65 %
4.3 % (low capacity assumption)
9 % (high capacity assumption)

Figure 6. Trends in freight traffic since 1970
Million tonne-km
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1985

1980

1970

10000

The bulk of rail freight traffic consists of import flows: 19 million tonnes, compared with
3.7 million tonnes of export products in 1993. Despite this, rail’s share in the overall volume ofimport products was only 7.74 per cent in 1993 (4.25 per cent of total export flows).
Maritime transport
Maritime transport is the main mode for international freight traffic, whether import or export
traffic. By volume, 67 per cent of international freight traffic flows are carried by maritime transport.
Maritime transport’s modal share has been increasing steadily for some time now despite 1993’sslight decline in tonnage carried.
Domestic coastal navigation traffic rose by 5.7 per cent from 1994 to 1995, whereasinternational maritime freight traffic rose by only 1.7 per cent over the same period.

202

Figure 7. Trends in freight traffic since 1970
Million tonne-km
40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

Imports- by volume, in millions of tonnes- share of total volume (%)- by value, in millions of lire
- share in total value (%)

174.20
67.75
57.40
24.73

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1985

1980

1970

15000

Exports- by volume, in millions of tonnes- share of total volume (%)- by value, in millions of lire
- share in total value (%)

44.10
50.06
58.60
22.15

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
The broad outlines of the GTP suggest that maritime, rail and combined transport infrastructure
projects would be priorities in any future plans.
The GTP, drawn up over the period 1984-86 and updated in 1991, provides strategic guidelines
for national transport policy. Its main objective is to build an integrated intermodal transport system.
In order to do so, it concentrates on two main areas:− achieving a better balance between demand for rail and road transport;− reorganising management and services in intermodal transport.
From an institutional standpoint, the aim is to set up a single supervisory framework to facilitate
co-ordination of local authority investment programmes. From an operational standpoint, the plan
proposes a fully integrated approach to intermodal transport, which is to be at the centre of economic
development.
The plan was updated after a few years’ experience with the basic programme. It is based onseven key points in the areas of land and sea transport.
− The development of multimodal corridors. The plan points out that more thorough planning of
connections between corridors and networks and corridor links is necessary.
203

− Using port systems. Law No. 26/87 recognised the legal status of the port systems identified in
the GTP, which have never been put into operation. It is therefore imperative to implement the
project as provided in the GTP, especially since Italy has a long coastline and many problems
with its ports.
− Priority for Alpine crossings. The updated GTP provides for setting national priorities. With
this aim in view, current projects (the Brenner, Saint Gotthard, Simplon and Splügen projects)
will be subject to an economic evaluation.
− Policy choices for rail transport. All aspects of rail transport must be developed:•••

its basic role as a public service provider, particularly urban and commuter services;
FS’s basic role in intermodal transport must be further developed by ensuring a fairer modal
split;
high-speed line development must proceed with particular attention to connections with therest of the rail network.

− Continuance of the freight terminal (“interporti”) policy. The revised plan confirms the earlier
policy choices made as regards the siting of freight terminals and highlights the need to set up
networks of such terminals.
− Implementation of the programme at urban level. Urban transport policy is based, according to
the GTP, on the “integrated project” principle and on updating national financial structures for
locally based enterprises.
− Full integration of southern Italy into the national transport system. Conventional and special
initiatives (for southern Italy) should be integrated and complementary so that the south of Italy
can be incorporated into the national transport system.
Two fundamental acts were passed to enable the implementation of the GTP:
1. Law 385/90 (transport provisions);
2. Law 186/91.

The new GTP transport programme
Italy’s transport sector has recently undergone extensive restructuring in order to facilitate
separate accounting for management and infrastructure services. This is a direct result of theCommon Transport Policy defined in the European Commission White Paper.
The strategic aims of Italy’s national transport policy are to:− improve the quality and performance of the national transport system;− integrate national markets with the TEN networks;− create the necessary conditions for a free market based on the strict enforcement offramework legislation on competition as prescribed in European Union directives.
As regards transport system plans, Italy’s programme is entirely consistent with European
Community policy as defined in:204

− Community guidelines for the development of trans-European transport networks(Community decisions concerning the master plan for the high speed, combined road/rail andmultimodal transport networks);− the new Council Regulation No. 2236 of 1995, which sets out general regulations forCommunity funding of trans-European networks.
As regards services management, Italy began a privatisation process in line with Community
principles of free competition:− Road and airport systems: ANAS and AAAVTAG have become public companies.
− Airports: companies have been set up with capital for services management and forinfrastructure investment.
− Maritime sector: the sector has been reorganised and ports have been restructured by setting
up ports authorities to organise and manage services.
− Rail transport: FS became a joint-stock company, links with government were severed andan injection of private capital was made to finance the infrastructure necessary for theconstruction of a high-speed network.
Details of the measures taken in sectors that are the Ministry’s responsibility are discussed
below.
Road infrastructure
Length of toll motorway network (Kilometres)
As at 31/12/1990
As at 31/10/1995
Annual variation

2 lane5 105.3
5 052.0- 0.2 %

3 lane1 106.0
1 410.0
5.0 %

Total
6 211.3
6 462.0
0.8 %Source: Autostrade SpA.

Rail infrastructure
Rail transport investment programme
FS investment programme under the 1994-2000 Programme Contract (CdP)
Billion lire
Field
1995 interim project for high speed system 1bis

Tab. A
8 331

Maintenance fund for the railway system in general
International line
Technology and performance of railway system in general(urban, inter-city and international lines)
Unscheduled maintenance
Railway junctions
Track, doubling and renewal
Rolling stock (and ferries)
Previous year’s balance and adjustments for previous contracts
Joint funding outstanding
Total

2 388
29
1 396

205

1 891
6 876
9 439
4 900
3 500
38 750Tab. A1
1 260
150
2 650
100
800

Total A + A1
9 591
150
5 038
129
2 196

974
1 527
4 989
3 150
0
750
16 3502 865
8 403
14 428
8 050
3 500
750
55 100

The sums in the column headed Tab. A are the amounts allocated to FS under the CdP of
29 December 1992. The sums in the column headed Tab. A1 are the additional sums allocated to the
FS under budget legislation, Acts Nos. 538 of 24 December 1993 and 725 of 23 December 1994.

Question 3: Capacity problems
There appear to be congestion problems on the motorway network due to heavy HGV traffic on
the north-south corridor through Italy. The problem could be alleviated, according to the Italianauthorities, by transferring a large proportion of road freight traffic to coastal navigation services.

Road transport capacity problems
Peak traffic flows (weekend departures and return journeys)
on some sections of motorway, 1995
Motorway

Section

A1
A1
A1
A4
A4
A8
A10
A11
A12
A14
A14
A14

Modena south-Allacc.A14
Firenze north-Firenze Signa
Asse Mediano (NA)-Allacc.A16
Allacc.A8-Milano Cormano
Capriate-Dalmine
Busto Arsizio-Castellanza
Genova Aeroporto-Geneva Pegli
Pistoia-Montecatini
Allac. A7-Genova east
Interc. Casalecchio (BO)-Allacc.A13
Imola-Interc.raccordo Ravenna
Cattolica-Pesaro

No. of
lanes
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
2

Direction
North
South
North
East
East
South
West
East
East
North
North
South

No. ofvehicles
4 823
3 285
4 927
6 106
5037
3688
3 021
3 181
2 913
3 539
4 902
2 601

Source: Autostrade SpA.

Question 4: Measures
Maritime transport
In the maritime transport sector, Law No. 84 of 1994 on the reform of port legislation introduced
a number of important innovations. It redefines port categories, organisational levels, the division of
responsibilities and management structures for private port services. Article 6 of the Law also lists
the 18 ports in which port authorities have been set up with responsibility for:− scheduling, co-ordinating, developing and inspecting port operations and other activities
conducted under licence in port areas;− handling operations in the public areas of the port;− overseeing activities carried out in the public interest and paid for by port users.
206

Rail transport
In the rail sector, the most significant innovation was the transformation of FS into a joint-stockcompany under 1992 CIPE legislation and the Law of 12/8/1992 which authorised the Ministry todefine the scope and procedures for letting franchises to the new company.
The new legal basis amended both substantive laws and the legal instruments governing relations
between the State (which remains the majority owner of the rail company) and the company itself. In
addition the new relations are governed by:
−
−
−
−
−

a franchise instrument;a public service contract;a programme contract;
EEC Directive No. 91/440 (on rail network interoperability);
EEC Regulation No. 1107/69 et seq. concerning the public service obligation.

The franchise instrument, approved by a Ministry of Transport Decree (225T of 26/11/1993),
sets out a new model for contractual relations between the State and FS in accordance with theCommunity Directive on the organisation, performance and liberalisation of the European railway
system.
The public service contract establishes the State as the “purchaser” of services provided at its
request by the rail company.
The programme contract sets out investment programmes for the development and restructuringof FS SpA and sets the amounts payable for operating infrastructure for which the State is
responsible, in accordance with the provisions of the Directive.
To date, three programme contracts have been signed, the last voted by the CIPE on 23/6/1995.
It sets out investment programmes and funding for the period 1994 -2000.
The originality of this instrument lies in the relations it establishes between the State and the rail
company, preserving both the public service element and the company’s independence while allowing
it to earn a commercial rate of return.
In the latest programme contract, the State increased its previous funding commitments.
Moreover, it increased capital funding for the new company through the annual allocations provided
for in budget legislation. This legislation is also necessary for updating the investment programme
and identifying new sources of Community funding, such as the fund for Mezzogiorno and theCommunity Regional Development Fund.
Another innovation from a financial standpoint was funding for the development of a high-speed
rail project.
In order to implement this project, FS SpA granted a franchise to TAV (Treno Alta Velocità), a
company jointly owned by the Italian railways and major financial institutions in Italy and abroad forthe design, construction and commercial operation of the new high-speed lines and infrastructure.

207

The 1993-95 programme contract provided for 60 per cent private funding for high-speed line
projects, connections to the national railway network and rolling stock, the remaining 40 per cent plus
interest on private capital to be financed by the State.
The latest programme contract, for the period 1994-2000, will confirm the methods of financeand will open the door to private capital in the form of partnerships compatible with the Community
directive.

Short sea shipping in Italy
Maritime transport plays an extremely important role in the country’s transport system. Over60 per cent of Italy’s import and export flows are carried by maritime transport and approximately
19.3 per cent of domestic freight is carried by maritime short sea shipping services. Short sea
shipping is a fundamental part of the national transport system, which is structurally dependent on theorganisation of international transport, the supply of port services and the type of goods traded.
The GTP and its 1991 revision points out that Italy’s port system and those of other EU countries
bordering the Mediterranean, play hardly any part in major traffic flows, which are now concentrated
on the Atlantic sea routes of northern Europe and on developing countries in the East or on the PacificRim.
The GTP proposed to promote a general policy to reintegrate the Mediterranean ports into
mainstream traffic flows through the Mediterranean.
This requires a dual development strategy: on the one hand, the modernisation of port services
for ocean-going traffic and traffic handled by northern Europe’s Atlantic ports and, on the other, thereorganisation of the port system through the implementation of operational plans and thereorganisation of domestic demand along a north-south route. The aim is to transfer some of Italy’s
overland traffic to short sea shipping services.
The plan identifies two traffic corridors, the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian Sea (towards Corsica)
corridors for north-south short sea shipping services. Together, these sea routes cover an area ofapproximately 1 000 km within which intermodal rail/sea services should be developed in order toreadjust freight traffic demand and alleviate congestion on motorways.
Problems for implementing this policy
The problem that arises in developing short sea shipping services is how to make themcompetitive, in terms of efficiency and overhead costs, with freight services offered by rail and roadhauliers. For this reason, new solutions that can contain the current crisis in the sector and promote
the economic and commercial recovery of sea transport firms are necessary.
Over the past five years (1990-95) short sea shipping’s share of traffic has remained relatively
steady at around 35 billion tonne-km. However rail services have also picked up -- they now accountfor some 24 billion tonne-km -- while road transport has also increased its volume, to around
110 billion tonne-km. Overall, short sea shipping is now stable, with a market share of around19 per cent compared with 12-13 per cent for rail and over 66 per cent for road transport.

208

Priority should be given to initiatives that will make short sea shipping better able to competewith domestic rail and road transport, but primarily to compete in the European Union’s liberalised
transport sector, as this will determine the terms of competition for Italy’s maritime transportindustry.
Among such initiatives the first priority should be buy-back policies, which tend to encourage
capital investment in fleet modernisation. The aim is to optimise operating costs and reduce externalcosts, which are a burden on the management of the Italian fleet, and to improve the efficiency andproductivity of this employment sector.
Lastly, with a view to maintaining maritime transport’s market share, a co-ordinated policy
should be developed at Community and international level to ensure that the liberalisation policy
implemented for trans-European port networks and short sea shipping services does not work to thedisadvantage of the Italian fleet. Maritime transport’s share of the transport market in terms of freight
import/export flows was formerly 24 per cent, the figure on which the GTP was based, but it is lower
now.
For the major ports in the CIPE proposals, which are considered to be in the common interest of
the Community, there are problems with accessibility, siting and inter-modal (rail, road and port)
connections as well as the computerisation of services.
In accordance with European Union directives, short sea shipping services were liberalised in
1993, and, from 1999, ferry services operating between the Italian islands and mainland Europe will
also be liberalised. For port systems, this will be a determining factor in the development of short sea
shipping. With regard to infrastructure and the geographical distribution of ports, the system’s
potential capacity exceeds demand. It may also be reasonable to assume that maritime transport will
increase in the future.
Measures being taken
The restructuring of the maritime sector began a few years ago, with the introduction of the newlaw (Law No. 84 of 1994) concerning the reform of legislation on ports. This new law organises all
port activities in line with the objectives of the GTP and its 1991 update, with the current instrumentsof the GTP itself and the amendment to the regional transport plan. It is also a statutory instrumentthat enables the classification of ports both at an organisational level and as regards the division of
responsibilities and management structures for port services.
The latest statutory instrument is Legislative Order No. 65 of 16/2/1996 on urgent measures in
the ports and maritime sector, which contains provisions relating to staff management in the sector(including provisions on early retirement) and provides for the privatisation of groups operating in the
sector. The legislative order also provides for port authorities constituted on 1/1/1995 to assume all
the responsibilities attributed to them under Law No. 84 of 1994.
Still on the issue of maritime transport, and more particularly the issue of companies belonging
to the FINMARE group operating in the international maritime transport sector, Legislative OrderNo. 98 of 1/4/1995 on urgent measures in the transport sector, as amended by Law No. 204 of
30/5/1995, provides in Article 3 for a special procedure for the privatisation of such companies andconfirms that the State must provide the funds necessary for the recapitalisation of theseundertakings.
209

In addition, as previously pointed out, Law No. 84 of 1994 instituted port authorities in 18 ports
in order to make port services more efficient and more competitive in the context of the ongoingliberalisation of port services within the European Union.

Integrating Italy’s ports with European infrastructure networks
Recent surveys by the European Commission (DG VII) estimate surplus capacity in western
Mediterranean ports, the gateways to trans-European road and rail networks, at 30 to 40 per cent atpresent.
With the recent construction projects in the south of the country (Gioia Tauro and Cagliari)
Italy’s port system is contributing to this capacity surplus. This warrants the finalisation of a
Community action plan to attract new traffic and strike a better balance with traffic through the
Atlantic ports (Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg).
At European level, this plan would seem to be vital to enable optimum use of the overall
capacity of Community ports, with advantages in terms of general costs and the environment.
At national level, Italy is the origin or destination point of 80 per cent of the Community’stransalpine rail and road traffic. In the Mediterranean Basin, maritime transport handles 69 per centof trade flows. In Italy, much of the traffic goes through the Tyrrhenian ports, principally Genoa,
which is a major terminal for freight from and to the whole of the Mediterranean (Gibraltar, Suez)and for freight from the Adriatic ports and the entire Mediterranean basin (Cagliari, Palermo,
Syracuse, Catania, etc.). Further south, Gioia Tauro, which was recently opened to shipping, is a very
important terminal for containerised traffic.
Italy’s policy is aimed at providing links between its ports system and the trans-European
networks:− to the east, with the port of Trieste, the terminal for eastern European countries;− to the south, with the port of Genoa, the Mediterranean terminal of the Tyrrhenian corridor toFrance and Spain;− to the north, with the ports of the upper Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian Sea.
Given the foregoing, the national ports system, which is properly structured in terms ofinfrastructure capacity and transhipment facilities, could become a key factor in the development oftrade.

The Mediterranean co-operation projectTransport Ministers met in Paris, Cannes, and Rabat (on 22 September 1995) to sign amilestone agreement on future Community funding for the extension of the trans-European
networks to the Mediterranean. This agreement provides for the development of port systems and theintegration of intermodal transport services. The objective is to facilitate trade by improving
port infrastructure and services from an intermodal standpoint, by linking ports to landtransport corridors, installing IT systems for traffic management (VTS) and for port information

210

networks. The protocol to the agreement also provides for major legal and administrative measuresfor port management and for environmental protection.
The Italian authorities view this agreement as a means of developing their maritime coastal
navigation services on a larger scale.

Note

1.

Light vehicles include mopeds and two-axle vehicles with a ground-to-axle-clearance of 1.30 m
or less. They are category “A” vehicles for toll purposes. Exempt and non-classified vehicles
are also included in this category. Heavy vehicles include all two-axle vehicles with aground-to-axle clearance of over 1.30 m (toll category “B” and all vehicles with three or more
axles (toll categories “3”, “4” and “5”).

211

LATVIA
Area: 64 500 km²
Population: 2 513 469

Economic development in Latvia over the next few years has been estimated on the basis of
GNP which, according to previous forecasts, was expected to drop by 10 per cent in the periodleading up to 1998 and then increase by 33 per cent between 1998 and 2015. However, GNP stopped
falling in 1994 and began to rise. Latvia encountered a number of difficulties in effecting its
transition to a market economy, but now can point to some positive achievements:
−
−
−
−
−
−

the remarkable stability of the lat (national currency) (1 US$ = 0.54 lat, September 1996);
the reduction of inflation to an estimated 20 per cent in 1995;
a balanced budget, which should be maintained in 1996 and 1997 (draft budget);a reduced level of imports;
a quite moderate level of foreign debt, which is within the country’s debt service capacity;
unemployment, now stable at between 6 and 6.5 per cent.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
The transport and communications sector’s share in GDP has continuously increased and morethan doubled between 1991 and 1994. This positive trend is also the result of a decline in theindustrial and farming sectors. The volume of traffic, which has actually dropped considerably since
independence, rose again, at least for freight traffic.
Latvia is a major transit zone (especially east-west). As the following table shows, transit traffic
represents more than 75 per cent of total traffic, a share that is rising constantly. It represents morethan 90 per cent of rail traffic.
Freight traffic in 1994
Thousand tonnes
National traffic
Import traffic
Export traffic
Transit traffic
Total

7 989
4 498
5 158
54 94272 587213

Road transport
There was a significant drop in local traffic (passenger and freight) in the Baltic states between
1990 and 1994, in spite of the strong increase in car ownership.
The traffic forecasts are based on three growth scenarios for the national economy: low, high,and medium. The medium growth scenario is considered to be the most realistic.

Figure 1. Projected traffic growth based on economic growth forecasts
In percentage

6

6

5

5

4

4

High growth rate3

3
Medium growth rate22

Low growth rate

1

0
1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

1

2011

2013

0
2015

Source: ECMT.

Passenger transport
The number of cars per thousand inhabitants is increasing rapidly, with between 4 000 and
5 000 new registrations per month in 1995. European cars make up more than half the number of carsin the fleet.
Development of car ownership, 1980-94
Per thousand inhabitants
Car ownership
1980
1985
1990
1992
1994

65
78
97
122
152
214

According to car ownership forecasts drawn up before the system for registering vehicles
changed, the number of cars per 1 000 inhabitants will be 285 by the year 2015 in the case of theminimum scenario and 395 in the case of the maximum scenario.
According to the medium scenario, by 2015 the number of cars per 1 000 inhabitants will haverisen by 115 per cent to 326.

Motorised vehicle fleet, 1980-94

Private cars
Buses and coaches

1980
165 499
9 380

1985
214 514
10 587

1990
282 688
12 1381992
350 000
12 7001993
367 500
11 6001994
n.a.
14 160The drop in the number of private cars may be explained by the changes made to the vehicle
registration system and the fact that many old vehicles (including motorcycles) were scrapped. On
average, private cars covered 7 000 km in 1992. Transport by private car, bus or coach totals
18 billion passenger-km per year.
As far as urban transport is concerned, bus and trolley traffic decreased sharply over the past few
years. The number of public passengers decreased and car ownership increased (in particular in theregion of Riga). The use of taxis is also less frequent, not because they are fewer but because they are
now more expensive.
Many minibuses have been introduced and have a significant share in public transport. The
number of passengers nevertheless decreased due to less frequent services. Buses are still as crowded
but run less frequently. Transport by coaches is used less than in the past. To improve turnover,companies have reduced their services and some lines have been closed.

Public road transport trends, 1990-95
Millions

Bus passengers
Trolley passengers
Total including taxis

1990
573.3
219.7
881.3

1991
570.8
224.2
808.2

1992
287.5
188.0
479.3

1993
186.0
112.4
301.0

1994
188.1
110.7
300.9

1995
184.5
98.7
n.a.

Freight traffic
According to vehicle counts carried out in 1992 on the Estonian section of the Via Baltica, heavy
goods vehicles accounted for 55 per cent of all vehicles. Some 50 per cent of lorries weighed lessthan 4 tonnes, and only 8 per cent weighed more than 12 tonnes. Efficiency was poor, given thatnearly 20 per cent of the lorries surveyed were empty.

215

Forecasts of the share of HGVs in the total vehicle fleet, 1995-2015
1995
11%
5%
6%

Lorries
Semi-trailers
Buses and coaches

2000
11%
5%
5%

2015
12%
5%
3%

In 1990, road freight traffic in the Baltic states accounted for less than 20 per cent of the total
number of tonne-km. Over the next 20 years, road freight is expected to quadruple, with 50 per centof the present volume of rail traffic being transferred to the road and because the service provided byroad vehicles is more suited to freight traffic between the Nordic countries and central and southern
Europe.
Between 1990 and 1994, the volume of traffic in tonnes fell by a factor of ten and wasaccompanied by a decline of 76 per cent in the number of tonne-km. Average mileage per vehiclerose in 1994. On the basis of the available data, it is not possible to distinguish between roadtransport for hire and own-account road transport.

Freight traffic trends, 1990-1995

Tonnes (thousands)
T-km (millions)1990
206 2105 853

1991
161 808
4 866

1992
85 0002 500

1993
28 9851 253

1994
19 801
1 400

1995
20 600n.a.

In 1992, average daily traffic on the Tallinn-Vilnius route totalled 12 100 vehicles south of Rigaand 1 800 near the Lithuanian border. Average daily traffic on the Riga-Kaliningrad route in 1992
totalled 6 600 vehicles South of Riga and 3 400 near the border with Lithuania.
According to forecasts prepared within the framework of the “Via Baltica” study, traffic on themain thoroughfares in Riga is expected to rise by 18 per cent between 1990 and 2000 and then by
86 per cent between 2000 and 2015. However, transit traffic on the “Via Baltica” rose by over
500 per cent between 1988 and 1992.

Air transport
Passenger traffic
The number of passengers travelling by air was quite high in the past (more than 2 million in
1990, due to Soviet tourism in Jurmala, on the Baltic coast); it fell to 211 000 in 1993 but increased to490 000 in 1995. The main difference compared with the past is that nowadays passengers pay theirtickets on the basis of international tariffs.

216

Passenger air traffic trends (Riga airport), 1990-95
Millions

Passenger-km
Passengers

1990
3 357.0
2.2

1991
2 999.0
1.9

1992
450.0
0.4

1993
211.0
0.2

1994
271.0
0.2

1995
n.a.
0.5

Freight traffic
At present, the volume of goods transported is quite low, at around 4 000 tonnes, but could
develop if Riga airport becomes a platform for distribution of air freight to the CIS (Kazakhstan,
Armenia, Turkmenistan, etc.).

Freight air traffic trends, 1990-95

T-km (millions)
Tonnes (thousands)

1990
22
15

1991
18
11

1992
3
3

1993
7
3

1994
9
3

1995
n.a.
4

Passenger and freight air traffic is expected to grow by approximately 13 per cent a year.

Rail transport
Passenger traffic
Passenger traffic has fallen sharply over the past few years, as much for urban and suburban
traffic as for international traffic. There has, however, been no change in the average distancecovered.

Examples of distance covered
Kilometres
Moscow - Riga
Moscow - Ventspils
Moscow - Liepaja
St Petersburg - Riga
St Petersburg - Ventspils
St Petersburg - Liepaja

217

973
1 144
1 157
687
858
871

Passenger rail traffic trends, 1990-95
Millions

Passengers
Passenger-km

1990
144.5
5 366

1991
90.7
3 930

1992
83.1
3 656

1993
59.6
2 359

1994
55.6
1 794

1995
44.5*
1 373*** Lithuania 15.2 and Estonia 8.8** Lithuania 1 130 and Estonia 421

The volume of tramway traffic has not fallen as sharply as the volume of traffic by train:

Passengers

1990
243.1

1991
251.6

1992
193.7

1993
114.9

1994
112.8

Freight traffic
The downturn which occurred in the years following independence has been stopped. There isrenewed freight traffic by rail, mainly due to transit traffic on the east -west corridor.
Breakdown of freight traffic, 1994-95

Domestic
ExportImportTransit
Total

1994
3 389
924
3 206
20 277*27 796

1995
3 545
984
2 854
21 457**28 840* Of which 16 931 (83.5 %) towards ports.
** Of which 17 925 (83.5 %) towards ports.

Freight rail traffic trends, 1990-96

Tonnes (thousands)
T-km (millions)1990
84 11118 5381991
75 26516 7391992
31 807
10 1151993
30 5749 852

1994
27 7969 520

1995
28 8409 757*

1996
+19%
+25%

* Lithuania 7 686 and Estonia 3 610.

For the first half of 1995, Latvian railways (LDZ) carried 14.02 million tonnes, or
4 846.8 million tonne-km, and 16.67 million tonnes, or 6 402.9 million tonne-km, for the first halfof 1996.

218

Two shuttle trains have been in service since the beginning of 1996 between Riga and Moscow.

Maritime transport
Latvian ports mainly handle goods in transit to and from the CIS: 90 per cent of the goods thatpass through the ports are transit goods. The three main ports are: Riga, which specialises inhandling general commodities, containers, grain, and fish; Ventspils, which specialises in petroleum
products; and Liepaja, which handles mainly timber and metals. Efficient links connect all threeports to the rail network.
Ventspils is the largest Latvian port and the largest oil-exporting port in the Baltic, with a total
annual capacity of 42 million tonnes. Two pipelines link Ventspils to Russia, one for crude oil, theother for petroleum products.
In 1995, the volume of goods handled in the Latvian ports increased to 39 million tonnes.
Forecasts are summarised in the following table:

Traffic forecasts, 1995-2010
Million tonnes
1995 (actual)
29.63
38.92

Ventspils
Total Latvia

2000
56
71

2005
68.0
87.5

2010
83.0
106.4

Container traffic has developed considerably these last years, with 120 000 TEU in Riga in 1995.

Breakdown of traffic volume by port
Million tonnes

1993
1994
1995
1996 (forecasts)

Ventspils
22.39
27.72
29.63
35.0

Riga
4.70
5.95
7.42
8.80

Liepaja
0.43
1.10
1.44
1.70

Other ports
0.10
0.20
0.43
0.50

Total
27.62
34.97
38.92
46.00

Maritime traffic trends
Million t-km

Total

1990
61 6201991
47 3351992
30 560219

1993
36 5771994
42 198Inland waterways
This mode of transport is little used at present. It may become more popular, however, if
tourism expands as the government expects.
Inland waterways passenger trends
Million passenger-km
Passenger-km

1990
12

1991
5

1992
1

1993
0.4

1994

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment
The main modes of domestic transport in Latvia are rail and road. However, it is important not
to overlook maritime transport, which has a very large share in GDP. Air transport is mainly
concerned with international passenger services.
There will be little change in the network of transport infrastructure in the period leading up
to 2015. The only new routes will be ferry services from Riga to Karlskrona and Stockholm.
However, the network will be improved, with roads upgraded to at least two lanes 9 m in width. In
particular, the Riga-Jelgava section on the road linking Riga and Kaliningrad will be upgraded to fourlanes, and work on the Jelgava bypass will be completed.
In April 1993, the European Community and the G24 Transport Group approved inclusion of the
Via Baltica in the list of top priority transport corridors in the former Eastern Europe. The Via
Baltica goes from Helsinki to Warsaw, via Tallinn, Riga and Kaunas. The project to improve the Via
Baltica is scheduled to run until the year 2000. The cost of the present phase is $70 million. The
project includes the construction of bypasses, the rehabilitation of bridges and surfacing, and thedevelopment of information systems for road users. Financial solutions involving toll sections or aconcession are being considered.
Another project, already well along, is the construction of the Via Latgale from Riga to theRussian border (Teherova border crossing).
A request for a new pan-European corridor (rail and road) has been made (Helsinki Conferenceof Ministers in June 1997). It is an east-west corridor, from the Russian border (coming from
Moscow) to Ventspils. This corridor is 460 km long and there is a branch from Belarus and two
supplementary maritime terminals in Riga and Liepaja.

Present infrastructure situation
Road network
The road network comprises 20 688 km of national roads, including 8 368 km of primaryroadways. The density of the network is 0.32 km/km²; in addition, there are a great many country
roads, totalling 39 000 km. The network has changed very little since the beginning of the decade.
However, since the volume of passenger and freight traffic by road has fallen sharply since 1990, theconstruction of new roads has not been a priority.
220

Development of the road network, 1980-94
Thousand kilometres
Type of road
National roadsof which paved roads
Country roads

1980
20.1
15.7
30.7

1990
20.6
18.8
38.9

1991
20.6
18.8
39.6

1992
20.6
18.8
39.6

1993
20.6
18.8
39.6

1994
20.6
18.8
39.6

However, the roads are in urgent need of repair, particularly in view of the number of accidents
caused (to a greater or lesser extent) by the state of the carriageway. Adequate resources formaintaining the road network are not available. Only one-tenth of the $80 million needed formaintenance was granted under the 1994 budget. A loan of $10.4 million from the EBRD will be
used for a rehabilitation project worth a total of $26 million.
There are 57 bus and coach terminals in Latvia, operating efficient services throughout thecountry. However, the state of the vehicles is a major problem, and it will require $60 million a year
over a period of five years to renew the bus and coach fleet.

Rail network
The rail network comprises 2 413 km of line, representing a density of 0.037 km/km². The
length of the network has increased by only 13 km in ten years (1980-90). There has been no change
in the very low percentage (10%) of electrified railway lines since 1990.

Development of the rail network, 1980-95
Kilometres
Type of track
Main lines
Broad gauge
Narrow gauge
*

1980
2 384
2 350
248

1990
2 397
2 364
271

1991
2 397
2 364
271

1992
2 406
2 373
271

1993
2 413
2 380
271

1994
2 413
2 380
271

1995
2 413*
2 380
33

Lithuania 2 002 km, 1 021 km Estonia.

In 1996, traffic was interrupted on some unprofitable lines. The Latvian railway company istrying to develop the east-west corridor, between Moscow (and Belarus) and Ventspils, Riga or
Liepaja. Another important corridor should also be developed between St. Petersburg and Warsaw,
via Rezekne.
The Latvian railways are undergoing a profound restructuring, following the principles set out in
EU Directive 91/440. This led to a decrease in staff and a recent increase in productivity.

221

LDZ staff, 1985-96
1985
28 951*1990
23 7371991
23 128

1992
21 7361993
20 8941994
21 3981995
20 254

1996 (forecasts)
19 000*17 500 in Lithuania, 8 300 in Estonia.

The number of stations has decreased to 175 (down from 205 in 1985). Due to restructuring, thenumber of railway stations in operation may decrease further. Approximately 70 per cent of the
9 980 freight wagons will have to be replaced, or at least taken out of service, by 2010. The same
percentage also applies to the 609 passenger coaches.
The east-west corridor project can be broken down as follows:

Length in km
Main corridor- Ventspils Jelgava- Jelgava Krustpils- Krustpils Zilupe (Russian border)
Branches- Indra (Belarus border) Krustpils- Lepaja Jelgava- Riga Krustpils

164
138
158
158
180
121

Air transport infrastructure
A new airline set up as a result of a participation offer made to the Latvian government by
Scandinavian airlines SAS and the US Braniff International (BI) flew for the first time in
November 1994 and entered into service in April 1995. This new air company is called Air Baltic.

Capital of Air Baltic
Percentage
Latvian governmentSASBI
Two finance partners
Total

51
29
8
12
100

Air transport infrastructure is well developed in Latvia: Riga international airport, Spilve andLiepaja airports, 12 military and 90 civilian landing fields are distributed throughout the country.
Three other airports have been closed: Ventspils, Rezekne and Daugavpils. Infrastructure capacity istherefore considerable but needs to be modernised.
222

The runway and lighting system at Riga airport has been rehabilitated and the air traffic control
system has been modernised. A master plan for the airport includes the construction of a businesscentre, a number of hotels, and a freight distribution centre.

Key projects not on the main transport corridors
Nine projects are currently being studied or are already under construction in Latvia.

Nature of the project

Geographical location

Time scale

Construction of a road
Rehabilitation of major roads

Between Riga and Moscow
Whole of Latvia

1994-2005
1995-2000

Estimated cost
(million $)100
40

Reconstruction of a bridge

River Venta on the RigaLiepaja route
Riga-Liepaja routeRiver Daugava in Riga

1997-1999

6

1996-1997
1998-?

1.5

Ports of Riga and Liepaja
Port of Ventspils

1997-2000
1997-1999
1995-2000

5
25
15

1995-2000

90

Reconstruction of a viaduct
Construction of a fixed link
(bridge or tunnel)
Reconstruction of access routes
Reconstruction of rail access
Rehabilitation of the main
railway lines linking the ports totheir hinterland
Rehabilitation of port installations

Question 3: Capacity problems
The most congested areas are located at the borders with Estonia and Lithuania and on roads
through the centres of Riga, Bauska and Jelgava (the Jelgava bypass is still under construction).
Capacity on the new Riga bypass is insufficient where the road crosses the River Daugava.
Lack of road maintenance is likely to generate further areas of congestion.
Poor safety levels are the main problem facing passenger and freight traffic in the road sector.
The number of fatal road accidents is four to eight times higher than in western European countries.
It is significant that 49.7 per cent of private and commercial vehicles are more than ten years old.
The lack of experience of new drivers has caused the number of road accident fatalities to rise by
40 per cent between 1985 and 1991, more quickly than the number of accidents. Recently, however,there has been a reduction in the number of fatalities, which is all the more noteworthy in that, at thesame time, the rate of motorisation has increased steadily. The number of road accidents remains
worrying, but the situation improved markedly between 1995 and 1996. In January 1996, there were
164 accidents, as against 262 in January 1995 and 148 in February 1996, as against 224 in Februaryof the preceding year.

223

Traffic accidents, 1990-95

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Accidents
4 325
4 271
3 474
3 389
3 814
4 056

Fatalities
877
923
729
670
717
611

Casualties
4 716
4 543
3 766
3 721
4 380
4 903

The results of a survey conducted by the Latvian Transport Ministry show that the increase in thenumber of accidents is in proportion to the worsening state of the roads, with 10 per cent of accidents
due solely to the poor state of the road. The cost of road accidents to the state budget is very high:58 million lats (3.8 per cent of GNP) in 1994.
Freight transport techniques are outdated and the goods transported are often lost or damaged.
Problems with certification, the issuing of licences, vehicle checking, and legal checking
procedures are increasingly common. Safety is not guaranteed, goods and vehicles are not insured,and there is a lack of effective co-operation between transport professionals and government
authorities.

Question 4: Measures
A national transport development plan scheduled for the period 1996-2010 was approved by theGovernment in November 1995.
The 1993-94 indicative PHARE programme mainly focused on:− a seaport master plan for the three main Latvian ports (ECU 0.7 million);− an institutional support programme at the Ministry of Transport (ECU 0.55 million);− a training programme for managers at the Ministry of Transport (ECU 0.36 million);− PHARE technical assistance through creation of a PIU (project management unit).
In 1995, the programme was strengthened by:−−−−a study on restructuring the railway (ECU 0.54 million);a master plan for interurban transport by buses (ECU 0.24 million);a road safety and maintenance master plan (ECU 0.24 million);a study on harmonisation between EU transport legislation and Latvian legislation(ECU 0.30 million).

The studies scheduled for 1996 include:− upgrading of the east-west railway corridor and railways infrastructure in Ventspils(ECU 0.40 million);224

− a feasibility study for a new bridge (or tunnel) to cross the Daugava river in Riga;− a transport master plan for Riga city;− a study on tariffs and income of transit activities in Latvia.
Other PHARE projects are being carried out or scheduled, such as the Multi-country Programme
and Cross Border Co-operation Programme:−−−−

the building of a control tower in Riga harbour (Vessel Traffic Services Tower Building);
Via Baltica support (World Bank Highway Project);
Maritime safety in the Baltic Sea (safety at sea) radio system;
upgrading of border crossings facilities (in particular with Russia and Belarus) (Border
Crossing Programme).

Very active bilateral co-operation, especially with Sweden, Finland, Denmark and theNetherlands, should also be mentioned:−−−−

the master plan of the port of Liepaja;
upgrading of the railway line Liepaja-Jelgava and Liepaja station (East-West corridor);
upgrading of logistic chain on the East-West corridor;
setting up of a Distripark in the port of Riga.

SOURCES1.

Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications, Viatek Group, VTT Technical ResearchCenter, on behalf of the European Commission, TRANS/WP5, North-Eastern Europe
Transportation Study: Preliminary Phase, 1993.

2.

Republic of Lithuania - Ministry of Transport, Report on the meeting of Ministers of Transportof the three Baltic States, with the participation of representatives from EC DG VII, EBRD,World Bank and G-24, Vilnius, 29-30 July 1993.

3.

Finnish Ministry of Transport & Communications, Via Baltica - Feasibility Study, Nordic
Project Fund/Nordic Investment Bank, EBRD, Viatek, SweRoad, August 1993.

4.

Latvia: Indicative programme, 1993-94 (PHARE).

5.

Moniteur du Commerce International (MOCI), No. 1148.

225

LITHUANIA
Area: 65 300 km²
Population: 3 709 300

Lithuania is the most southern of the Baltic states. A characteristic feature of the country is that
two transit corridors cross on its territory:−

a north-south corridor stretching from the northern tip of Europe to the countries in central
Europe;−an east-west corridor linking the Baltic ports of Kaliningrad and Klaipeda to Belarus (andRussia).

Lithuania’s GNP is expected to remain stable until 1998 and then increase by 28 per centbetween 1998 and 2015. GDP is expected to increase by 26.8 per cent between 1995 and 2000.
The outlook for economic development and the possibility of new relations abroad have led to amajor restructuring of Lithuania’s transport sector. At the beginning of 1994, the government
approved the Transport Development Programme, which contains basic principles and strategic
objectives for a national transport policy:--

to integrate the transport network in eastern Europe via international corridors, while
maintaining the transport sector’s traditional trade relations with eastern European countries
and the CIS;--

to set up a regulatory frame corresponding to that of the European Union;--

to put an end to state monopolies and privatise national trade companies in order to create
an open market and encourage private investments in this sector.

227

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Passenger traffic
Figure 1. Future trends in traffic volume performed by national operators
In million passengers

1 200

1 200

1 000

1 000
Million passengers carried(all modes)

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2005

0
2010

Source: ECMT.

Road transport
Car ownership per 1 000 inhabitants, 1980-95

1980
1985
1990
1994
1995

Car ownership
60
91
121
169
185

The number of private cars doubled over the last decade. On average, private cars travelled
7 000 km in 1992.

228

Car park, 1991-95

Carsof which privateBusof which private

1991
530 824510 562
15 627563

1992
565 320542 516
16 284930

1993
597 735
575 980
16 3391 699

1994
652 810627 105
17 1032 967

1995
718 469685 552
17 052
5 824

Traffic forecasts and modal split (national operators), 1995-2010

Millions of passengers
transported% road

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2005

2010

405.7
96.10

439.3
96.40

472.9
96.63

506.5
96.78

540.1
96.90

573.7
97.02

860.6
97.87

1 144.5
98.24

Traffic forecasts up to 2010 show an increasing monopoly for road. Traffic volume should triple
between 1995 and 2010.
According to forecasts prepared as part of the 1992 “Via Baltica” study, the volume of traffic on
the main thoroughfares in the city of Kaunas will increase by 30 per cent between 1990 and 2000 andby a further 92 per cent between 2000 and 2015.
Air transport
The two Lithuanian airlines account for only a quarter of passenger traffic. In 1995 theytransported more than 241 900 passengers and forecasts are for 295 000 in 2000, 335 000 in 2005 and392 000 passengers in 2010. Lithuanian international airports should have traffic of
640 000 passengers in 2000, 850 000 in 2005 and 1.25 million in 2010, as against traffic of
418 000 passengers in 1995.
Despite a high growth rate, the share of air transport performed by national operators in themodal split(all modes) should decrease. In 2010, air passenger traffic should represent 0.03 per centinstead of 0.6 per cent in 1995. Traffic volume of foreign airlines should also increase, according to
the forecasts.
Rail transport
Traffic forecasts and modal split (national operator), 1995-2010

Millions of passengers
transported
Percentage rail

1995
15.2

1996
14.5

1997
14.6

1998
14.8

1999
15.2

2000
15.5

2005
16.5

2010
18.0

3.60

3.18

2.98

2.83

2.73

2.62

1.88

1.54

229

Whereas other modes seem to have important growth rates, traffic volume of railways should
only increase by 20 per cent. According to the forecasts, railways should have some difficulty
remaining the second most frequently used mode, and there will be an ever greater gap with road.
Waterways and maritime transport
Traffic volume, 1995-2010
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010
Millions of passengers transported- by inland waterways
1.00
1.60
1.60
1.70
1.70
1.74
1.80
2.00
- by sea
0.038 0.059 0.065 0.068 0.075 0.082 0.118 0.155

Although, according to forecasts, traffic should be multiplied by four between 1995 and 2010,
the share of maritime transport in global traffic should stay at a very low level, with 0.01 of the modal
split. Inland waterways are in the same position since, even if traffic volume is multiplied by two
over the period, their share in modal split should decrease from 0.24 per cent in 1995 to 0.17 per centin 2010.

Freight transport
In 1990, road freight traffic accounted for less than 20 per cent of total tonne-km in the Baltic
states. Over the next 20 years, the volume of freight traffic by road is expected to quadruple, as
50 per cent of rail freight shifts to the roads and in response to the demand for freight traffic between
the Nordic countries and central and southern Europe.

Industrial vehicles, 1991-95

Lorriesof which private
Road tractors
Trailers
Semi-trailers

1991
84 341
3 105
7 728
12 311
11 9691992
87 3216 537
8 911
11 46911 7941993
89 53014 7869 241
11 81310 952

1994
93 59324 1057 467
10 696
10 696

1995
101 42237 873
7 469
9 119
9 119

Share of HGVs in total number of vehicles, 1995-2015

Lorries
Semi-trailers
Buses and coaches

1995
9%
5%
6%

230

2000
9%
5%
5%

2015
9%
5%
3%

Traffic on the east-west corridor
Approximately 15.1 million tonnes of goods were transported westwards in rail transit traffic
in 1992, and 7.6 million tonnes eastwards.
Maritime transport
Number and nationality of ships stopping in Klaipeda, 1995

Total ships
6 931

Arrivals
Lithuanian flag
3 702

Foreign flags
3 229

Total ships
6 725

Departures
Lithuanian flag
3 497

Foreign flags
3 228

The port of Klaipeda has links with ports in more than 53 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa andNorth America. In 1994, 77 per cent of exports and 75 per cent of imports passing through the port
were in transit, mainly to and from countries in the European Union and the CIS.

Traffic in Klaipeda
TonnesExportof which transit
Importof which transit
Total% export in total% import in total

1994
11 727 750
9 039 650
2 796 520
2 080 890
14 524 270
80.75
19.25

1995
10 098 970
6 913 500
2 622 160
1 372 120
12 721 130
79.39
20.61

First half 1996
4 896 560
3 493 150
1 611 140
995 970
6 507 700
75.24
24.76

In 1992, the port of Klaipeda loaded 13 million tonnes of cargo. More than 90 per cent wastransit traffic between eastern and western Europe, and 40 000 vehicles were expected in Ro-Ro
traffic in 1993. In 1991, the port handled approximately 3.8 million tonnes of cargo, including
40 200 tonnes of container traffic.

Container traffic in Klaipeda

TEU Units

1994
6 572

1995
30 008

Sept 1996
29 745The volume of container traffic passing through the port has considerably increased; the numberof units carried was multiplied by 4.5 between 1994 and 1995. With 135 000 TEU expected by the231year 2000, this trend should be maintained. More than 60 000 TEU were transported in semi-trailers
in 1994. Between 1992 and 1994 the number of semi-trailers, lorries and cars loaded onto ferries in
Ro-Ro traffic rose by a factor of five to total 76 900 vehicles.
The number of passengers using the port of Klaipeda has risen considerably since the 1993
survey, which identified 18 500 passengers. By 1994, the number of passengers had risen to 55 000
and between 250 000 and 300 000 passengers are expected by the year 2000 (all flags).
Road transport
Ro-Ro traffic in the port of Klaipeda grew by more than 90 per cent between 1992 and 1994
(gross weight of 3.3 million tonnes in 1994), causing the volume of road traffic on the B branch of the
IX corridor to rise by 25 per cent between 1993 and 1994 to a total of 11 500 vehicles per day on
certain sections of road. Mean traffic on the D branch rose by 20 per cent. Between 1 800 and
9 000 vehicles use certain sections of this branch every day.
In 1992, more than 70 000 lorries travelled across Lithuania on the east-west route, carrying
approximately 750 000 tonnes of goods, mainly in traffic between the countries of the CIS and the
district of Kaliningrad. Up to 9 500 vehicles per day use the Klaipeda-Vilnius route (see the map at
the end of this report: “The quantity of goods in transit carried by road through Lithuania in 1995 ”) .
Rail transport
The volume of rail freight on the IXB corridor (Minsk-Kaunas-Klaipeda) depends on the level oftraffic passing through the port of Klaipeda. In 1994, the different rail sections of this corridor
transported between 11.6 and 18.7 million tonnes of freight. Rail transport accounts for:−−−−between 7.3 and 7.9 million tonnes per year on the IXD branch linking Kaunas andKaliningrad (Russian goods heading for the region and port of Kaliningrad);between 9 and 20 million tonnes and between 3.5 and 9.5 million passengers per year
between Klaipeda and Kaisiadorys, depending on the particular section of the line;
22 million tonnes and 13 million passengers per year between Vilnius and Kaisiadorys;
12 million tonnes and 8.5 million passengers per year between Kaunas and Kaliningrad.

International traffic accounts for 85 per cent of total rail traffic on branches IXB and IXD.

Forecasts of railway freight traffic flows, 1995-2010
Million tonnes

Branch IXD
Branch IXB

1995
6.0
12.5

232

2000
6.5
15.0

2005
7.2
17.5

2010
8.3
20.0

Traffic on the north-south corridor
Road transport
Road traffic rose strongly up to 1994 and reached, depending on the section, average daily
traffic of 1 800-9 000 vehicles in 1994. In the following two years, traffic intensity increased bymore than 20 per cent, to 2 700-10 000 vehicles a day, of which 1 600 cross the border.
Transit road traffic on the Via Baltica grew by more than 500 per cent between 1988 and 1992.
In 1994, transit traffic totalled 3.1 million tonnes and import-export traffic amounted to
4.3 million tonnes in 1995.

Forecasts of vehicle flows, 2000-2010

Daily traffic

2000
4 000 - 18000

2005
6 000 - 28 000

2010
9 500 - 42 000

On the Lithuanian section of the Via Baltica (branch IA) traffic density is less heavy at 1500-5 000 vehicles per day. Most of the traffic is local or bilateral traffic between the region of
Kaliningrad and Lithuania. However, the volume of traffic is expected to double by the year 2000.
According to vehicle counts on the Via Baltica in 1992, heavy goods vehicles accounted for
42 per cent of traffic at the Polish border and 23 per cent at the Russian border in the direction of
Kaliningrad. Efficiency is poor:----

nearly 20 per cent of the lorries included in the survey were empty;
50 per cent of lorries had a total weight of less than 4 tonnes;
only 8 per cent weighed more than 12 tonnes.

In 1992, more than 90 000 lorries travelled across Lithuania on the north-south corridor, carrying
approximately 1 million tonnes of freight from or to countries of the CIS, Poland, Germany, France,
Finland and other European countries.
Average daily traffic on the Riga-Kaunas-Suwalki-Warsaw route in 1992 totalled
13 200 vehicles around Kaunas and 1 000 vehicles around the Polish border.
The average number of vehicles taking the Riga-Kaliningrad route to cross Lithuania ranged
from 3 200 vehicles per day at the Latvian border to 2 600 per day at the Russian border (see the map
at the end of this report: “The quantity of goods in transit carried by road through Lithuania
in 1995”).
Rail transport
In 1994, 185 000 people took advantage of the “Baltic Express” international passenger service
between Tallinn and Warsaw via Riga and Kaunas, one year after the line was opened for service. It
is predicted that the service could attract 1 million passengers by the year 2000.

233

Freight traffic on the north-south corridor totals 70 000 tonnes.
Traffic forecasts, 2000-2010
Million tonnes

Expected traffic volume

2000
1.4 - 1.6

2005
2.0 - 2.42010
3.5 - 4.0

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment
Infrastructure description
Road infrastructure
The total length of the road network is 61 442 km, of which 85 per cent only is paved.

Network length in 1995
km
61 44221 12135 5954 726
53 08121 12127 5134 447

Roadsof which public lanes- local- urbanTotal lanes surfacedof which public- local- urban

Network density is 622 km of road and 321 km of primary road per 1000 km² or 11 km of roadand 5.6 km of primary road per 1 000 inhabitants. The road network has a missing link between
Vilnius and Brest (Belarus).
There are more than 4 000 bridges and viaducts in Lithuania, of which approximately 600 arepart of the rail network, 1 400 are on national roads and 2 300 come under the control of the local
authorities. Their state of repair gives cause for concern.
Railway infrastructure
The rail network is 2 665.4 km long, with a density of 0.041 km/km²; 559.8 km of line is double
track. The only electrified part of the network is a 122 km section between Vilnius and Kaunas.

234

Public railways network length, 1995

Length of commercialised railway lines
Commercialised lines
Single track
Double track or more
Electrified lines- of which double track or more
- of which single trackkm
2 665.4
2 001.8
1 442.0
559.8
122.0
117.0
5.0

Air transport infrastructure
The following investment measures are planned in the air transport sector:-----

development of an international airport for freight traffic (regional hub) on the site of theformer military airport and an aircraft maintenance depot in Siauliai;
modernisation of air traffic control equipment;
modernisation and development of Vilnius international airport at an estimated cost of$16.8 million (1991-98);
continuation of work to rebuild Kaunas and Palanga airports.

Projects in the corridors
Until 2015, the transport infrastructure network will remain as it is on the north-south corridor(the only new links are the ferries Klaipeda to Karlskrona and Stockholm). Work on the Via Baltica
will be under way between 1990 and 1999, but will only be the first stage (motorway rebuilding).
The roads concerned will be widened to two lanes, with a minimum width of 9 m. This should
upgrade significantly the quality of the Lithuanian road network.
Infrastructure on the east-west corridor
In 1995, a transport plan was drawn up with the general aim of improving infrastructure on the
Lithuanian section of this corridor. The total cost of the projects involved will be $46.5 million(37.8 million of which will be funded through loans from the EBRD and the Japanese Eximbank).
The aims of the programme are to modernise the rail network, the road network, and port
infrastructure (notably by improving the connection with the rail network).
1.

In the rail sector, the following investment measures, totalling $241 million, are planned forthe next five years (1995-2000):-- repair work on 390 km of track and trackside equipment;-- laying a second track on 63 km of line;-- modernisation of the signalling and telecommunications system ;-- gradual electrification of the Klaipeda-Vilnius-Kena section of line.

235

2.

$45 million are needed to improve the road network, of which $34.5 million will be fundedthrough loans from the EBRD and World Bank. Work is scheduled up to 2000:-- 170 km of road surface repairs-- the construction of town bypasses (totalling 44 km);-- upgrading of bridges and viaducts;-- setting up safety equipment.

3.

The main investment projects for the port of Klaipeda are the extension of the terminal for
ferries and Ro-Ro traffic (with funding worth ECU 5 million from the PHARE programme),
the construction of a new container terminal and a terminal for bulk cargo, thereconstruction of the port entrance, and repairs on the railway line through the port. Total
costs for these projects (excluding the reconstruction of the oil terminal in Klaipeda) are$200 million. Investments in this port are considered as top priority for the transport sector
in Lithuania. These projects will cost a total of $87 million with a 15-year payback period.
The PHARE programme will contribute ECU 5 million to the cost of improving the Ro-Ro
and ferry terminal.

Infrastructure on the north-south corridor
Since 1988, studies for Via Baltica have led to a number of resolutions and declarations by thevarious countries concerned by the development of this axis. However, action to develop this axis has
been slow and has encountered several difficulties. On an initiative of the Nordic Investment Bankand the G-24 Working Party, a commission has been set up to co-ordinate and stimulate efforts by thecountries and the financial institutions concerned. This commission is composed of delegates fromthe Estonian, Finnish, Latvian, Lithuanian and Polish governments but also the European
Commission, EBRD, IBRD, EIB and the Nordic Investment Bank. A precise programme ofinvestments has been set up to finance projects to alleviate technical and institutional problems. This
programme covers the period 1996-2000. By 2000, Via Baltica should be able to handle significant
international traffic flows and constitute a real international corridor.
The total cost for this programme is $178.4 million, to which national contributions must be
added, as well as special funds and loans granted by international financial institutions. The total
length of the road on Lithuanian territory is 274 km. Due to predicted traffic increases, 206 km
should be equipped with four lanes and 68 km with two lanes. The first phase of the project involves
the following work:---

upgrading the road with a new surface and separated lanes over 177 km;
construction of bypasses (31 km).

The first phase of the project should last from 1997 to 2000. The total amount for this phase is$70.4 million for Lithuania alone, of which $17.6 million in local funds. The remainder will comefrom loans granted by various international financial institutions:----$25 million from the EIB;
$21.1 million from the EBRD and the Japanese Eximbank;$6.7 million from the Nordic Investment Bank.

236

This commission also set out a Memorandum of Understanding for the development of
Via Baltica.
For the Lithuanian authorities, it is also very important to develop railway infrastructure on
corridor I linking Tallinn-Riga-Kaunas-Warsaw. A programme was launched in 1993 to set up direct
railway links between the Baltic states and western European countries. Also in 1993, aninternational railway passenger line was opened and in 1994 a freight line. Work has begun on a
project to build a freight terminal for transferring freight from wagons using 1 435 mm gauge track towagons using 1 520 mm gauge track. The terminal will have a handling capacity of 2.5 million
tonnes per year. Some sections of the superstructure of the terminal will be financed by private funds.

Question 3: Capacity problems
For all transport modes, the main problem is lack of funding, notably for infrastructure
improvements.
The second problem, which concerns all of Lithuania, is border crossings. There are too few
crossing points, and, in addition, customs procedures have not been adapted to the market economy
and the internationalisation of trade. As a result, waiting times at borders are a major problem forroad haulage services and particularly for foreign vehicles in transit. In January 1996, the Baltic
states, in the Council of Ministers of the Baltic area, agreed on plans for common procedures fortransit traffic and for increasing the capacity of border crossings. All the measures require total
co-operation among the countries concerned, which include Lithuania and Poland. Moreover, theEuropean Commission granted ECU 2 million via the programme PHARE for the upgrading ofborder crossings, in particular at Kalvarija.

Road transport
Road infrastructure
In 1992, the worst congestion on the whole of the Via Baltica was on the border between
Lithuania and Poland, where delays of several days were common. There is a danger that capacity
will remain insufficient even after the Kavarija-Szypliszki border crossing is opened. The bordercrossing point between Ladzdijai in Lithuania and Ogrodniki in Poland, which is now used forinternational traffic, was originally opened in 1986 for local traffic. It was therefore equipped withtemporary facilities designed to cope with a low level of traffic. In 1989, as a result of the opening of
the former Soviet Union, traffic increased four-fold. After the Baltic states became independent in
1991, the border was opened to foreign vehicles and traffic continued to grow, doubling to 400 000
vehicles, despite the lack of sufficient capacity.
In 1992, the Lithuanian and Polish governments signed an agreement establishingLadzdijai-Ogrodniki as an international crossing point and Kalvarija-Szypliszki as the main crossing
point between the two countries on the Via Baltica.

237

Traffic is congested in many places along the Lithuanian section of the Via Baltica as a result of
breaks in the route, and signposting needs to be improved. The main bottlenecks are the road throughPanevezys, the section between Kedainiai and the A1 motorway, and the 82 km section of roadbetween Kaunas and the Polish border. Road maintenance is becoming increasingly difficult asbudgets are reduced.
On the Riga-Kaliningrad route, traffic is slowed by the border crossing points and the roadthrough the town of Siauliai.
VehiclesThe fleet of coaches used for domestic services is in poor condition, with average depreciation
currently standing at 80 per cent. Between 1990 and 1993, most of the coach lines were closed.
Inexperienced new car drivers have caused the number of road accident fatalities to rise more quickly(up 40 per cent between 1985 and 1991 in Lithuania) than the number of accidents.

Rail transport
Railway lines are in increasingly poor condition and 342 km of track used for heavy traffic are inurgent need of repair. On average, locomotives are ten to 15 years old. The coach fleet comprises
341 vehicles, half of which have been in service for more than 20 years, while 27 per cent of all
wagons are less than five years old. However, none could be used in international traffic to western
European countries.

Question 4: Measures
In April 1992, the Lithuanian government approved a strategic programme for the reconstruction
and development of the transport system. The programme will be implemented in three parts:----

In the short term, the Ministry of Transport will be reformed by introducing new budgetaryprocedures and defining a new regulatory framework.
In the medium term, the aim will be to promote:the development of a transport system based on free market principles, notably throughthe privatisation of transport undertakings;•
better transport conditions for passengers and freight, as well as the integration of
Lithuania in the European transport network.
•

The government’s priorities are the rehabilitation and maintenance of existing infrastructure
and the elimination of bottlenecks at the borders with Poland and Latvia.
--

In the long term, the aim is to identify major investment projects (all modes, domestic andinternational traffic), rank them by order of importance, and ensure they are carried out.

The aims of the national transport development programme adopted in 1994 are:

238

----

alongside countries in central and eastern Europe, to integrate the Lithuanian transportsystem into European transport networks and services on multimodal corridors in Europe;
to promote private investment;
to bring legislation governing transport activities into line with EU directives.

Moreover, since June 1995, when Lithuania became an “associate member” of the EU, efforts
have been under way to establish a new regulatory framework for all transport activities. At the endof the year, a technical assistance plan entitled “Harmonisation of Transport Legislation with that of
the European Union” will be implemented with a view to speeding up the harmonisation process.
The main legislation enacted to date involves:-----the Law on Civil Aviation, which came into force on 22 May 1996, as well as the Law on
the Use of Air Space;the Law on the Port Authority of the Port of the State of Klaipeda, in effect since
5 June 1996;
the Railway Law, in effect since 22 June 1996;
the Inland Waterways Law, in effect since 17 September 1996.

239

SOURCES

1.

Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications, Viatek Group - VTT TechnicalResearch Center, North-Eastern Europe Transportation Study - Preliminary Phase, 1993,
carried out on behalf of the Economic Commission for Europe TRANS/WP5.

2.

Finnish Ministry of Transport & Communications, Via Baltica, Feasibility Study, Nordic
Project Fund/Nordic Investment Bank, EBRD, Viatek, SweRoad, August 1993.

3.

Republic of Lithuania, Ministry of Transport, Report on the meeting of the Ministers ofTransport of the three Baltic states, held in Vilnius on 29 and 30 July 1993, with theparticipation of representatives from EC DG VII, EBRD, World Bank and G-24, Vilnius,
August 1993.

4.

stAlgirdas Sakalys, 1 Vice Minister, Ministry of Transport, “Policy to develop LithuanianTransport Infrastructure”.

5.

MICECO, Information Note 12 : Transport (PHARE, Lithuania), fax dated 16 July 1993.

6.

Commission of the European Communities, DG I, PHARE Programme (Lithuania): Draft
Commission Decision of 1993; Financing Proposal, 10 June 1993; Information Note 1 :Logical Framework Matrix; Information Note 2 : Policy Assessment; Information Note 3 :Institutional Assessment; Information Note 4 : Commitments and Contracts, 1991-1992;
Information Note 5 : Indicative Commitment to Other Sectors.

240

MAP

Quantity of goods in transit carried by road through Lithuania, 1995
Thousand tonnes

Source: Customs Department, Ministry of Finance, Lithuania.

241

MOLDOVA
Area: 37 000 km²
Population: 4 300 000

Moldova has signed a number of European transport conventions and agreements, among them:
−
−
−
−
−

Convention on road traffic (19/9/1949), European agreement supplementing the convention
on road traffic ((1/5/1971);
Convention on the contract for the international carriage of goods by road (19/5/1956);
European Agreement concerning the work of crews of vehicles engaged in international roadtransport (1/7/1970);
Customs convention on the international transport of goods under cover of TIR carnets(14/11/1975);
Customs convention on the temporary importation of private road vehicles (4/7/1954).

During the last two years, Moldova became full member of:−−−

the Memorandum of Understanding concerning corridor N° 9;
the European agreement on main international railway lines;
the European Conference of Ministers of Transport.

With GDP totalling $1 110 million, "net industrial output" standing at $628 million, and4 per cent monthly inflation, Moldova is pursuing its reform process, with priority being given to theprivatisation of state enterprises and of public limited companies.
In the transport sector, the privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the restructuring of theinstitutions responsible for this sector are under way, particularly the Ministry of Transport andRoads, which has responsibility for state enterprises and semi-public enterprises, a total of
115 enterprises, of which:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

51 road transport undertakings, or 5 000 lorries (7 per cent of the total lorry fleet), 500 taxis
and 1 900 buses and coaches (20 per cent of the total fleet);
31 railway stations and road terminals;
2 enterprises specialising in inland waterways transport;
1 railway undertaking;3 road management enterprises;
6 industrial enterprises;
10 enterprises specialising in ancillary transport services;
11 miscellaneous enterprises.
243

Most of these state-owned enterprises are solvent and operate at a profit.
economic and financial situation of the sector is still poor.

However, theQuestion 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Road transport
Freight traffic
The demand for road haulage services has declined over the past few years. In 1995, the total
volume of goods transported by firms operating road haulage services for hire was 3.93 million
tonnes, down 27 per cent from the previous year. However, this result is better than the 1994 figures,
which were down 68 per cent from 1993.
Despite a regular increase in international road traffic, which more than doubled between 1994
and 1995, scarcely more than 20 per cent is handled by Moldovan road transport enterprises.
Road haulage firms, especially nationalised firms, are in difficulty. Out of the ministry’s total
fleet of 5 000 lorries, 3 500 remained parked at the ministry throughout the whole of 1995 owing tolack of freight and financial resources. The ministry is doing its best to protect Moldovaninternational road hauliers at all levels (legal and practical).
Passenger traffic
In 1995, 43 million passengers travelled by road, an increase of 14 per cent from the previous
year. Passenger-kilometres rose by 22 per cent over 1994.
Faced with this increase in the number of passengers travelling by road, the Moldovan
government is re-opening a number of suburban and interurban lines. As a result of the growing
demand for international passenger transport, new services to Bulgaria, Turkey, Romania, Austria,
Ukraine, Belarus and Russia are being developed. The Ministry of Transport and Roads is presently
looking at possibilities for replacing both passenger and freight vehicles through state-guaranteed
foreign loans.

Rail transport
Freight traffic
The Moldovan railways play a very important role, particularly in national transport policy.
In 1995, freight traffic totalled 4.39 million tonnes, down 1.6 per cent from 1994. Since 1993,
the demand for freight transport by rail has fallen by an estimated 27 per cent.
However, although the volume of goods transported has fallen, the situation is less critical thanthat of the road sector, as the Moldovan government has been promoting the transfer of traffic to therailways for the past few years.

244

Furthermore, the drop in traffic is offset to a large extent by productivity improvements(+ 28.6 per cent) and shorter wagon standing times (- 24 per cent) during load transfer operations.
Passenger traffic
In 1995, the Moldovan Railways transported 11 million passengers (949.3 passengers per km ofline).
These figures show a 20.2 per cent drop in traffic compared with 1994. However, the drop is
offset to a large extent by a 38.4 per cent reduction in minimum standing time and a 35 per cent risein passenger coach productivity.

Inland waterways transportThis mode performed better than the others in 1995, transporting 3.66 million tonnes of cargo
and 570 000 passengers, an increase of 15.2 per cent in volume and of 3.6 per cent over the previous
year.

Summary of traffic levels, 1995

Road transport
Rail transport
Inland waterways transport

Million tonnes
Million passengers
Million tonnes
Million passengers
Million tonnes
Million passengers

1995
3.93
43.0
4.39
11.0
3.66
0.57

Change from 1994
- 27.0 %+ 14.0 %- 1.6 %
- 20.2 %+ 15.2 %+ 3.6 %

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investments
The transport infrastructure in the Republic of Moldova consists of:−−−a road network totalling 10 351 km (excluding municipal, farm, and country roads) and a total
vehicle fleet of 169 100 cars, 69 600 lorries and 10 000 buses and coaches;
1 318 km of railway line;
four airfields.

Road infrastructure
Roads are a fundamental part of the social and industrial fabric of Moldova. They need to ensurethat the road transport sector, which is very important in a country where road traffic accounts for
90 per cent of total passenger traffic, functions smoothly.

245

The road network in Moldova
Kilometres
Road surface
Concrete
Asphalt
Pre-treated macadam
Macadam and gravel
Earth
Total

Total network
487
5 225
758
3 591
470
10 351

National roads
426
2 327
229
188
3 170

Local roads
61
2 898
529
3 403
470
7 361

In 1995, 1 455 million lei were spent on new infrastructure construction projects:−−−

A bridge on the Pojareni-Tipala-Chetros motorway. Work on the bridge cost 281.19 million
lei for 11 km of new road.
A bridge on the Lapusna-Carpineni-Sarata-Rezesti motorway. The 7 km of new road leading
to the village of Negra cost 314.112 million lei.
A motorway section on the Fetita-Lipoveni-Munteni-Porumbrei route. The 1.4 km of newroad joining the village of Lipoveni to the motorway cost 860.17 million lei.

For 1995, 62 million lei were set aside for the Road Administration in the central government
budget, but this represents only 11 per cent of the cost of normal road maintenance. In fact, the Road
Administration received only 57.5 million lei (36.5 million for national roads and 21 million for local
roads).
A comparison of the 1995 budget allocations and the total funding requirement reveals that theallocations covered only:−−

16.7 per cent of the cost of carrying out normal maintenance on national roads (13 200 lei
per km instead of 78 900 lei);
5.5 per cent of the cost of carrying out normal maintenance on local roads (2 800 lei per km
instead of 51 000 lei).

Consequently, road maintenance was carried out with an eye constantly on savings. Work wastherefore limited to the strict minimum necessary to maintain the existing state of the roads. In all,54 million lei were spent to repair 247 km of road (149.1 km of national roads and 97.9 km of local
roads).
Most of the Road Administration’s budget comes from taxes collected by the State.
difficulties arise because:
−
−

The

the State no longer receives the full amount in taxes because the districts increasingly pay
back to the State only a half or third of the taxes they collect, at most;the State is not always in a position to redistribute the money received to the Road
Administration.

246

The situation of the road infrastructure is therefore very alarming. Not surprisingly, most publicroads are in a very poor state. Out of the total road network (10 531 km), 390 km are in goodcondition, 4 530 km are considered satisfactory and 5 611 km are in poor condition.

Railway infrastructure
In 1995, the state-owned railway operated services over 1 320 km of line, of which 1 150 km
were in Moldova.
Virtually all railway track in Moldova (1 120 km) is built to the 1 520 mm broad gauge. Only
30 km of track is narrow gauge (1 435 mm). The network has a density of 34 km of line per
10 000 inhabitants.
The main railway lines serve principally the towns of Razdelinaya, Bender, Chisinãu, Ungheni
and Bãlti for passenger traffic, and Razdelinaya, Bender et Reni for freight traffic.
All these lines are electrified and equipped with an automatic block system. Combined transport
is possible.
There are six interconnections with railways in CIS countries, at Kelmentsy, Mãmãliga,
Moghilev-Podolsky, Slobodca and Basarabeasca. There are also three interconnections withsouth-eastern and western European countries, at Ungheni, Prut and Reni.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Insufficient funding is the main problem facing the Republic of Moldova. Resources allocatedfor transport infrastructure investments have been decreasing since 1991.

Road transport
The age of the vehicle fleet considerably hampers traffic growth and generates extra cost.
Passenger traffic
Growth of international passenger traffic is being held up by the need to modernise the vehicle
fleet, as more than 55 per cent of the 2 000 buses belonging to the Ministry have surpassed the end of
their depreciation period and must be withdrawn from service.
The situation for urban passenger services is even worse. The cost of running the buses is sohigh that the Ministry is having to close lines and stop services in a growing number of urban centres:
Ceadit-Lunga, Briceni, Riscani, Donduseni, Vulcanesti, etc.
The authorities are currently studying various external funding options that would make itpossible to renew the fleet (foreign loans, leasing arrangements, etc.).

247

Freight traffic
The situation is similar for freight traffic in the road sector. Available funding is insufficient toenable Moldova to purchase western European vehicles that meet international road transport
standards (notably for traffic with the European Union).
In order to compensate for the lack of funding, transport undertakings are adapting their working
methods and developing additional services, such as:−−−private car repairs;
storage facilities;
organisation of secondary production activities.

In order to alleviate day-to-day problems connected with loss of revenue, state-owned companies
are reviewing the way they manage both their property and their staff. Most of them are obliged to:−−−sell vehicles (e.g. give drivers the opportunity to buy their lorries);
lease vehicles (150 leased lorries transport goods on national and international roads to Russia
and Romania);
review their administrative structure (which often means staff cuts).

Infrastructure
A complete rethinking of pricing policy and taxation will be necessary to finance transport
infrastructures.

Rail transport
Once again, lack of funding is a problem. Given the poor condition of rolling stock, newequipment is needed in order to carry out repairs and overhauls. Vehicle use is increasingly limited.
The difficulties are due to a number of as yet unresolved problems:
−
−
−
−
−

the need to modernise rolling stock and equipment;
insufficient depreciation funds;
rates that are too low;lack of funds to replace railway track;
the need to review the rail sector’s tax system (which is different from that of all otherbranches of the Moldovan economy).

It is estimated that $200 million are needed to improve the situation.

Question 4: Measures
Transport in Moldova is still in a state of upheaval. The Ministry is in the process of privatising
the various services it has administered to date on the basis of economic incentives, current laws, thetax and licensing systems, and customs duties.

248

Furthermore, many standards are currently being drawn up for the different branches of thetransport sector. For example, a new transport law will establish new rules for individual types oftransport.
In this context, the Ministry needs to carry out a detailed analysis of the entire transport market.
At present, priority has been given to collecting information on transport firms and their sector of
activity. By analysing a maximum amount of data, the Ministry should be able to produce a transport
bill that is well adapted to the situation in Moldova.
Legal constraints are a way of improving the situation in the transport profession and of barringfirms with dubious practices that hamper the smooth functioning of the market economy and distortcompetition.
In addition, current bankruptcy laws make it possible to verify a firm’s solvency and determine
whether decisions taken are reasonable. In this way, it should be possible to replace incompetentmanagers and improve productivity.
The authorities also intend to review their vehicle procurement policy. Whereas the fleet issufficient in terms of number of vehicles, it is very out of date from a technological point of view anddoes not meet European technical standards. As a result, Moldovan vehicles are not authorised tooperate in western European countries (except for a few vehicles still in a satisfactory state).
Lastly, there are not enough specialised vehicles (e.g. temperature-controlled, refrigerated),
despite the fact that such vehicles are essential for transporting fragile goods such as foodstuffs overlong distances, and that traffic of this kind accounts for 40 per cent of exports.
Solutions are urgently needed to all these problems, as they seriously affect Moldova’s capacity
to trade with other countries.
The situation in the rail sector also urgently needs study, with a view to allocating additional
funds so that rolling stock can be renewed and the infrastructure modernised.

249

NETHERLANDS
Area: 34 000 km²
Population: 15 500 000

In 1990, the Netherlands published its Second Transport Structure Plan (SVV-2). Its main
objective was to make every effort to secure a “sustainable society” for future generations. With thisaim in view, SVV-2 proposed a number of measures intended to facilitate accessibility, improvesafety and safeguard the environment over the period extending to 2010. Four years later, it waspossible to review the first results and to compare the forecasts on which it was based with actual
traffic figures. The new SVV-3 will probably be published in 1999.

Question 1. Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
In drafting the SVV-2, the authors used a “medium growth” scenario based on the economic
forecasts of the Central Planning Bureau (CPB). This scenario predicted:− an increase in the population of the Netherlands from 14.5 million in 1986 to more than
15 million by 2010;− smaller families, leading to a sharp increase in the number of households;− ageing of the population;− 29 per cent increase in the working population, mainly through rising numbers of working
women;− more jobs generated in the services sector than in other sectors;− 65 per cent increase in the real income of the employed and an increase of over 85 per cent inreal household income.
Before long it became apparent to the Dutch authorities that the economic and demographic
assumptions on which the scenario was based were no longer valid, in that the rate of population
growth, particularly for birth and immigration rates, had been underestimated. By 1991, the level thatthe population had been expected to reach by 2010 had already been attained, and the economy had
not grown at the rate predicted.
Consequently, in 1992, the CPB published a new set of socio-economic scenarios based onassumptions about world-wide developments (CPB, 1992). The two world-wide scenarios developed
for the Netherlands and used in transport planning are.
− Global Shift (GS). As its name suggests, this scenario is based on a shift in economic
activities from countries surrounding the Atlantic to Pacific Rim countries. Consequently, it251

predicts a rather low growth rate. International co-operation and the integration of European
economies would slow down. Adverse economic conditions in Africa and eastern Europe
would produce a stream of immigrants into the Netherlands. Rather extensive use ofregulatory measures would have relatively little effect.
− European Renaissance (ER). This scenario predicts economic recovery in Europe,
accompanied by successful European integration. The Netherlands would have slightly higher
average annual economic growth than in the 1985 “medium growth” scenario. Transport
policy would be influenced by market conditions and by regulatory measures.
These new scenarios predict an increase in freight traffic, particularly road freight traffic, with adifferent modal split and different trends for population mobility. Therefore, new road transport
policy measures have been developed for the period to 2010. They fall into two categories;“Package 1” measures relate to passenger transport and freight flows, while “Package 2” contains
additional measures primarily consisting of higher taxes on fuels and pollutant emissions from utility
vehicles from the year 2000 onwards.
Package 1
Passenger transport measures

Freight transport measures

Introduction of speed governors on buses

Introduction of speed governors on HGVs

Stricter implementation of ABC policy*

Development of measures to increase theproductivity of road freight vehicles

Parking charges to double
Development of measures to promote theuse of rail and waterway modes

Stricter standards for passenger car emissions
Improvements in local and regional public
transport service

Stricter standards for HGV emissions

Extension and widening of the trunk road network

Improvements to the national rail networkand the services it provides

60 per cent increase over 1986 rates in fuel taxes
in real terms
30 to 40 per cent increase in public transport fares(depending on the scenario) to reduce operating
deficits*

ABC policy aims to improve coherence between access constraints of companies (asworking places) and those on people’s mobility. Companies should take these constraints
and the possibilities offered by public transport services into account when deciding on theirlocation. The policy seeks to optimise the use of public transport services and ensure accessfor all. Its enforcement could be strengthened by complementary measures such as stricter
parking rules, depending on the urban area and the type of vehicle.

252

Vehicle-km trends by vehicle type for each scenario following the introductionof the measures outlined above
2000
1986 base-year
index=100
Private cars (based on
working days)
Vans
HGVs and semi-trailers

1993

ER

GS

2010 Package 1 2010 Package 2
ER
GS
ER
GS

119

125

120

137

130

129

109

132

179
151

159
132

240
216

219
189

240
216

219
189

Freight tonnage trends by mode for each scenario
Million tonnes
2000
Road transport(1986 base-year index)
Rail transport(1986 base-year index)
Waterway transport(1986 base-year index)
Total(1986 base-year index)

1986
456
(100)
18,3
(100)
238
(100)
712
(100)

ER
663
(145)
32
(175)
309
(130)
1014
(142)

GS
639
(140)
22
(120)
268
(113)
924
(130)

2010
ER
810
(178)
55
(301)
364
(153)
1229
(173)

GS
769
(169)
25
(137)
281
(118)
1075
(151)

Passenger traffic
Mobility trends
The most recent data on private and freight mobility in the Netherlands are for 1995. The
figures on private mobility show that as of 1994 Dutch drivers travel much more than what was
forecast for 2000 in the ER scenario. Over the period 1990-95, the total number of kilometrestravelled by private car (driver and passengers) increased by 10 per cent. Growth was mainly
concentrated in the trunk road network, where traffic has risen by 40 per cent since 1986.
Such growth is in fact observed for all surface transport modes. Public transport, i.e. train,buses, underground and coaches, even increased by 17 per cent between 1990 and 1995.

253

Trends in mobility
Billion kilometres travelled, by mode

Car (driver)Car (passenger)
Train
Tram/bus/metro
Private bus
Taxi and others
Bicycle
Total

1986
69.6
46.5
8.9
6.4
5.9
6.3
11.9
155.5

1990
78.2
48.4
11.1
6.0
5.2
7.7
13.0
169.6

1992
81.4
49.5
15.0
6.7
5.2
4.6
13.0
175.4

1993
82.8
49.0
14.8
6.5
5.7
5.2
13.1
177.1

1994
85.9
51.6
14.4
6.2
5.4
8.8
13.1
185.4

1995
86.5
51.6
14.0
6.3
5.8
8.2
13.2
185.6

2000*
83.5
51.2
±15
7.4

13.9

* European Renaissance scenario (ER).
Source: MIT, 1997-2001.
Whereas in 1992-93 the average daily distance travelled per person, principally on regularjourneys and business trips by car, fell by 2.1 per cent, the situation in 1994 was about the same as in1992. Nevertheless, between 1992 and 1994, the daily distance travelled for business trips was downby 18 per cent, to the benefit of leisure trips (up 38 per cent).
Trends in people’s daily mobility, in km per day by purpose of trip and mode of transport

Private car
Public transport
Bicycle/moped
Other *
Total

Regularjourneys
1992 1994
6.5
6.4
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.2
8.7
8.5

Business
1992
3.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
4.0

Leisure

1994
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
3.3

1992
10.2
2.0
1.4
0.4
10.4

Other

1994
10.5
1.8
1.3
0.4
14.4

1992
6.5
2.1
1.4
0.4
10.4

*
This category also includes journeys on foot.
Source: CBS.
Domestic traffic
Domestic traffic by mode, 1986-94
Billion passenger-km

Private car
Public transport
Motorcycle
Bicycle
Other
Total

1986
123.3
15.1
1.9
11.9
12.7
164.9

Source: CBS.
254

1993
140.5
21.8
1.4
12.4
14.3
190.4

1994
146.9
21.0
1.4
13.0
15.1
197.4

1994
6.8
2.0
1.5
0.7
10.1

Total
1992
26.9
5.6
3.5
1.5
37.4

1994
26.8
5.3
3.6
1.3
37.2

Passenger transport by bus accounts for 90 per cent of domestic travel, with67 million passengers per year over the period 1986-94. In 1994, domestic rail transport carried
306 million passengers, i.e. 100 million more than in 1993.

Freight traffic
Domestic traffic
Domestic traffic trends by mode, 1986-99
Million tonnes

Road
Rail
Inland waterways

1986
364
5
84

1990
393
5
85

1992
407
5
67

1993
392
5
68

1994
391
4
69

1995
398
5
68

1999*
455
8
76

* These forecasts do not include traffic on the Betuwe Line.
Source: NEA/CBS.

International traffic
Although the overall volume of freight traffic is increasing steadily, the modal split has remained
constant and should remain so from now to the year 2000. Air freight traffic accounted for barely
1 million tonnes in 1994 and is not expected to show much increase between now and 1999.

Trends in international traffic by mode
Million tonnes

Road
Rail
Inland waterways
Pipeline
Maritime

1986
92
13
154
39
321

1990
120
13
165
45
348

1991
126
13
158
50
367

1992
132
12
154
53
355

1993
131
12
146
51
343

1994
134
13
148
53
349

*
These forecasts do not include traffic on the Betuwe Line.
Source: NEA/CBS.

Trends in freight transit traffic, 1983-93
Thousand tonnes

Inward + outward

1983
84 366

1988
104 629

255

1992
103 9291993
80 831

1999*
164
22
170
57
400

Trends in import and export freight traffic, 1983-93
Thousand tonnes

ImportExport1983
303 951
235 7211988
361 384
282 5031992
402 698
342 6631993
367 383
334 575

The modal split for imports differs substantially from that for exports.
Maritime transport is still the main mode for imports, accounting for 70 per cent of traffic in
1993 as in 1983. The share of inland waterways declined by more than a third over the period
1983-93, no doubt losing out to road (whose share increased from 12 per cent in 1983 to 17 per centin 1993).
On the export side, inland waterways are still the main transport mode despite a net decline in
the overall volume of traffic carried, down from 39 per cent in 1983 to 29 per cent in 1993. However,
the modal split of export traffic is much more evenly balanced than that of import flows.

Figure 1. Modal split of import and export traffic flows in 1994

Import 1994

Road
16%

Export 1994
Air
0%

Pipeline
3%
Pipeline
24%

Maritime
22%

Rail
1%
Waterway
10%
Air
0%

Maritime
70%

Road
19%

Waterway
32%
Rail
3%

Source: CBS.

International traffic is expected to increase from 246 million tonnes in 1987 to
393 million tonnes by 2010. The modal split is expected to be as follows:− 196 million tonnes by barge;− 145 million tonnes by road;− 52 million tonnes by train.

256

International freight traffic follows two main routes: east-west flows are expected to total
242 million tonnes and north-south flows 151 million tonnes.

Road transport
Total freight carried by road in the Netherlands increased by 7 per cent between 1986 and 1994,
to reach a total of 391.04 million tonnes in 1994, with 104 million tonnes for international traffic.

Rail transport
International rail traffic is broken down as indicated in the figure below.

Figure 2. International rail traffic
In thousand tonnes

9 000

9 000
In-boundOut-bound

8 000

8 000

7 000

7 000

6 000

6 000

5 000

5 000

4 000

4 000

3 000

3 000

2 000

2 000

1 000

1 000

0

1991

1992

1993

0

Source: Dutch Ministry of Transport, The Hague.

Combined transport
According to forecasts, container traffic in the Netherlands should increase by a factor of four
over the period 1990-2015. The “Plan for the Promotion of Intermodal Transport” forecasts that thefreight carried in the Netherlands should increase from 40 million tonnes to 100 million tonnes
between now and 2015 and that the market share of combined transport should rise from 30 per cent,
the current figure, to 60 per cent.

257

Trends in container traffic
Thousand tonnes
1986
12 5491 781
1 934
23 22739 491Road
Rail
Inland waterways
Maritime
Total

1992
18 9462 423
4 755
30 93057 0551999
24 1703 422
6 186
40 06673 844

Source : CBS.
Traffic by type of units, 1986-94
1986
210
-

Million wagon-km (rail)
Thousand sea containers
Thousand inland containers

1990
270
29

1993
167
247
28

1994
160
286
34

Inland waterways traffic
Freight inland waterways traffic by containers, 1991-94

Million t-km, domestic traffic
Thousand containers,
international traffic

1991
6 476

1992
5 886

1993
6 865

1994
n.a.

464

500

633

683

Trends in the number of kilometres travelled in the Netherlands by
all types of freight transport vehicles, 1986-95
Millions
1986
3 365
1 719

HGVs
Semi-trailers

1990
3 782
2 362

1991
3 973
2 511

1992
4 094
2 671

1993
3 943
2 741

1994
3 710
2 770

* AVV forecasts.
Source: CBS.
Trends in international road traffic, 1986-94
Thousand tonnes

Total
For hireOwn account1986
55 66248 447
7 215
258

1993
98 06790 2827 885

1994
104 92097 836
7 084

1995*
3 530
2 820

Rail transport
By 2010 overall rail freight traffic tonnage (i.e. both domestic and international) is expected torise to 65 million tonnes, more than half of it on the Betuwe line.

Forecast traffic density on the Betuwe line by the year 2010
Million tonnes

Source: Dutch Ministry of Transport, The Hague.

The map shows international and domestic traffic flows on the new lines as well as other mainrail connections.
Although forecasts are quite optimistic, domestic traffic has decreased by 20 per cent. After a
sharp fall in 1992 and 1993, international traffic increased by 16 per cent in 1994.

Trends in railways traffic performed by the Dutch railways, 1986-94
Million tonne-km

Domestic
International*

1986
1 060
2 209

1989
1 017
-

1990
1 017
-

1991
998
2 031

1992
966
1 786

1993
965
1 675

1994
857
1 949

* Tonne-km carried on the Dutch territory are included.
Source: CBS.

Air traffic
Although air transport has a small market share, the volume of freight handled at Schiphol
airport increased by 42 per cent between 1992 and 1995.
259

Trends in air freight traffic
Thousand tonnes

Total freight
Freight with Europe

1992
695
106

1993
775
115

1994
834
121

1995
988
126

Source : Luchthavenstatiseken.

Question 2. Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
Investment by the central government in all types of infrastructure has risen steadily since 1986.
Public transport has seen the largest increases, with the amount spent on infrastructure in 1996
4.4 times greater than the amount spent in 1986. The budget for infrastructure construction on themain roads network increased 2.2 times over the same period. However, the amount devoted to road
construction increased by only 33 per cent over the same period.
SVV-2 includes an extensive investment programme for navigable waterways, again funded by
the government. The 1995 construction budget was 44 per cent higher than in 1993. However as of1996, funds were to be allocated only for maintenance, and the budget was lower than that of 1992.

Trends in investment by government in major transport infrastructure
Million guilders

Trunk roads:- maintenance- construction and extension- better use of capacity
Domestic inland waterways:- maintenance- construction and extension
Dutch Railways (public tr.)
- construction- maintenance
Urban and regional transport:- construction- regional construction*

1986

1990

1993

1994

1993

1996

2000

364
643

738
876

762
769
131

741
1 013
-

820
704
111

802
852
251

888
1 025
282

274
129

309
149

319
221

331
216

316
223

372
323

396
193

282

479

698
1 024

873
1 138

698
1 024

1 248

1 151

556

361
-

462
-

454

632

-

-

*

In this field, it is not possible to estimate costs for before 1992, owing to a change in theaccounting system.
Source: DG VI/FPI.

For the Ministry of Transport, building and maintaining new infrastructure are as important as
their optimal use. In this context, traffic control technology plays an important role. Substantial260

sums are being invested in new traffic signal and flow management technologies (control of slip-roadaccesses, automatic signals) on the trunk road and secondary road networks (even outside urban
areas). Traffic control also helps to alleviate road traffic congestion problems in the short term. For
these reasons, investment is to be stepped up over the period 1996-2000, with spending on newtechnologies totalling Gld 1.6 billion.

Investment programmes
For several years, the two largest infrastructure investment projects have been the rail investment
programmes.

A rail link for rail freight traffic, the Betuwe Line
This line will form the backbone of the Dutch rail network for freight and will also link it to theEuropean network. The line, 160 km long, will serve the ports of Rotterdam and Amsterdam as wellas Schiphol airport and will provide direct connections with the rest of Europe.
The construction costs for the project are expected to total ECU 4 billion. Financing is provided
by:− the national budget, through infrastructure funds and economic structure improvement funds;− the Gelderland province;− the European Union, through the TEN budget.
Private funding totalling ECU 750 million is also expected.
In policy terms, the project is intended to serve a number of purposes:− to reduce road traffic growth;− to offer attractive services in port areas to Dutch and foreign companies and to strengthen the
country’s image as a multimodal base as well as making its port areas more competitive.
− to provide an alternative to congestion and pollution in the long term.
The Rail 21 programme.
This programme mainly concerns passenger rail transport. The aim is to increase infrastructure
capacity by 60 per cent over the period 1990-2010. The Netherlands is also taking this opportunity to
install a new signalling system that will enable high-speed trains to run independently of conventional
trains on local networks.
Work has already started on many of the sections scheduled for construction or widening. The
final decision on the route of the European Paris-Cologne-Brussels-Amsterdam (PCBA) high-speed
line was taken in 1996, and the rolling stock was ordered. Total costs for this line should amount to
ECU 4 billion and the line should be in operation in 2005.

261

Projects not included in the TEN scheme at the Essen Summit
In addition to the two Dutch projects identified at the Essen Summit (i.e. the European PCBA
high-speed line and the Betuwe line), ten large financial projects have already been started (see theannex map).

Inland waterways projects− Project No. 1. The Waal river project, total cost ECU 240 million, to improve waterway
transport infrastructure and traffic control measures. Work has already begun and should becompleted by 2002. Costs for the first phase (completed in 1995) already total
ECU 65 million.
− Project No. 2. The Maas (Meuse) river project, total cost ECU 500 million, to upgrade
infrastructure and widen bridges. Work has already started and is scheduled for completionin the beginning of the next century. Costs for the first phase (i.e. to 1996) totalled
ECU 35 million.

Rail projects− Project No. 3. To upgrade the Amsterdam-Utrecht-Maastricht line and widen it to four
tracks. This project will considerably improve the TEN Amsterdam-Utrecht-Maastricht link.
The work will be carried out in the Amsterdam, Loenen and Liempde areas. It should bepossible to bring the line into service in 2005. The foreseen total cost is ECU 1 500 million.
− Project No. 4. The Amsterdam-The Hague-Rotterdam/Dordrecht. As of 1996, this project,scheduled for completion by the end of the century, should require only a further
ECU 351 million to complete, for a total cost of ECU 2 billion. It consists of a number of
sub-projects in the vicinity of Amsterdam, Leiden, the Hague and Rotterdam. Most of theline will be four-track, with some six-track sections.
− Project No. 5. The Rotterdam-The Hague-Utrecht line project, at a total cost of
ECU 690 million, to double the track and build new structures in the Gouda, Woerden andUtrecht areas. Work is scheduled to be completed by 1998 with some parts being completed
by 2004. Costs up to 1997 were ECU 400 million.
− Project No. 6. The high-speed line to the east (Amsterdam-Arnhem-German border). The
overall costs of the first phase (Arnhem station) is scheduled to be competed in 1998 at a costof ECU 50 million. Parliament has just given the go-ahead for work to begin on the entire
length of the line, but the project will not be completed until before the next century. Total
cost for this project should amount to ECU 3.8 billion.

Road projects− Project No. 7. The A4 (Amsterdam-The Hague-Rotterdam) motorway project. At a total costof ECU 800 million, this project involves the construction of new lanes and links, a second262

Benelux tunnel and a second Schiphol tunnel. Work has already begun and totalled
ECU 300 million to 1996. It will be completed when construction in the Schiphol area has
been finished, i.e. in 1999. The second Benelux tunnel should be operational by 2002.
− Project No. 8. “Rotterdam Square”, as it is known, involves work on the A15, A29 and A20
motorways: rebuilding the Giessenplein junction, adding another lane (from 2 x 2 to 2 x 3
lanes), improvements to the Caland Tunnel and new interchanges at a total cost of
ECU 930 million. Costs for initial work, to 1996, have already totalled ECU 320 million.
The construction work should be completed by 2000 except for the work on the Euroweg(2004).
− Project No. 9. Construction of a 2 x 2 express motorway on the A50 (Eindhoven-Oss)
motorway at a total cost of ECU 583 million (500 in 1997 and later). Work has already begunand should be completed by 2003.
− Project No. 10. The A2 (Amsterdam-Maastricht) motorway. Rebuilding the junction with
the A12 at Oudenrijn, building a second bridge over the Waal river near Zaltbommel andwidening the A2 (from 2 x 2/3 to 2 x 3 or 2 x 4 lanes, depending on the section) for a
projected cost of ECU 260 million. Work has already started. Costs to 1997 totalled
ECU 113 million.

Question 3. Capacity problems
Ease of access and congestion
In view of the Netherlands’ ambition to be a genuinely multimodal country, the Dutch
authorities are very keen on accessibility. One of the main indicators for accessibility is the“probability of congestion”, and it increased over the period 1987-92.
One objective of SVV-2 was therefore to reduce the risk of reaching a maximum congestion
1
probability of 5 per cent on the national road network. For roads to the interior, a limit of 2 per centwas set in SVV-2. However, in six years the percentage of the overall network where these limits are
exceeded has more than doubled.

Parts of the road network where the probability of congestion is higher than 2 per cent on
regional and local roads or 5 per cent on national roads and main corridors, 1987-93

Roads to the interior
Main roads
Other motorways
Total

1987
13.9
4.2
4.4
7.5

1990
25.7
6.7
7.3
13.8

1991
33.3
9.5
8.0
15.1

Source: MIT, 1995-1999.

1.

Motorways or highways linking the main Dutch harbours.
263

1992
33.8
9.3
8.0
15.9

1993
33.6
7.3
10.5
16.2

The situation is scarcely better for public transport. The number of trains running late has
increased since 1990. While the situation seemed to have improved in 1993, 1994 figures show that
5.1 per cent of local trains ran more than five minutes late, as opposed to 2.9 per cent in 1993 and3.4 per cent in 1992. However, according to the forecasts, these percentages should fall in 1996,
particularly in the Randstad area where infrastructure capacity has been increased. Intercity trains are
the ones most likely to run late: 9.6 per cent were more than five minutes late in 1994, comparedwith only 5.3 per cent in 1990.
According to SVV-2, efforts must be maintained to meet both quantitative and qualitative targets
for improving public transport; in order to avoid traffic congestion problems on the trunk road
network it is vital for public transport to be in a position to offer a quality alternative to driving.
It is also the responsibility of the authorities to ensure that optimum use is made of all existing
infrastructure. Fares policy is an effective instrument for regulating the use of the different modes
and for preventing road congestion. Therefore, groups to study the question should be organised verysoon.

SafetyDespite continued growth in car ownership, there has been a slow but steady decline in the total
number of road accidents (except in 1994). However, the fall is less marked than had been forecast in
the mid-1980s. The target set for 2000 -- a 25 per cent reduction of the number of road accident
casualties in 1985 -- will probably be met (for deaths and injuries requiring hospital treatment) but isunlikely to be met for all casualties. There was even an overall increase in the number of accidents in
1995.
It does not seem possible to meet the SVV-2’s targets for the year 2010 -- a 50 per cent reduction
in fatalities and a 40 per cent reduction in casualties as compared to the 1986 figures -- without achange in policy. Although it is becoming increasingly difficult to find measures that will reduce therisk of accidents, road safety remains at the heart of Dutch transport policy. If it were not, roadaccidents would probably increase by 25 per cent from now to 2010.

Road accident trends, 1986-95 and target for 2010

Fatalities
Injuries
Requiring hospitaltreatment

1986

1990

1992

1993

1994

1995

1 529
50 20214 704

1 376
52 03213 652

1 285
48 32811 654

1 252
47 577
11 562

1 298
49 146
11 735

1 334
50 97011 6882010 (SVV-2
objective)
763
21 298
8 823

Source: AVV.

Improved road safety levels were first noted in urban areas. The number of accidents on theroads outside urban areas also fell, but to a lesser extent.
264Question 4. Measures
SVV-2 has set a number of minimum and maximum targets to be met in the period 1995-2010 in
the areas of the environment, safety and accessibility.
The targets for accessibility and safety are those described above.
The environmental targets include:− reduction in NOx emissions from passenger cars to 40 thousand tonnes in 2010 (a 75 per centreduction from the 1986 base-year index);− reduction in NOx emissions from commercial vehicles to 25 thousand tonnes in 2010 (a75 per cent reduction from the 1986 base-year index);− reduction in CO2 emissions from all road vehicles to 20.7 million tonnes in 2010
(i.e. 10 per cent reduction from the 1986 base year index).
These targets are in line with those set in NEPP-Plus, the 1990 revision of the 1989 Dutch
National Environment Plan. Measures to reduce NOx and CxHy emissions have been maintained.
Between 1986 and 1995, admissible rates for private car NOx emissions were reduced by 30 per centand for CxHy emissions by 33 per cent. For HGVs, there has been an increase of 20 per cent over thesame period. Overall, NOx emissions have decreased by 10 per cent over the period and CO2
emissions have increased by 20 per cent. Therefore, the SVV-II target of not exceeding 1986 levels
has yet to be reached.
Intermediate targets have also been set. Aimed at reducing mobility growth rates, they serve as
guidelines for introducing certain measures:− Reducing the growth in passenger car use from 70 to 35 per cent over the period 1986-2010
through the introduction of a pricing policy (fuel price increases and electronic road pricing).
For commercial vehicles, the target for growth of the utilisation rate is set at 40 per cent.
− Improving public transport by offering better services and building new infrastructure (Dutch
Railways’ Rail 21 programme).
− Implementing the Target Group policy, which includes special provisions for freighttransport, commercial traffic and car pooling.
− Implementing the ABC policy (Country Planning) on parking problems, particularly for the
workplace.
− Developing a company transport policy concept, to encourage firms with 50 employees andmore to promote alternatives to private car use.
− Reducing traffic in urban areas.
− Selectively extending the road network and improving capacity.
− Implementing a land use policy aimed at grouping new housing, commercial and industrial
developments in order to reduce the need for car travel -- the “compact city” concept.
− Decreasing by 2010 the rate of C xHy emissions to 40 k-tonnes for all vehicles.

265

NORWAY
Population: 4.3 million
Area: 324 000 km²

The share of transport activities in Norwegian GDP has grown steadily since the low of 1987.

Figure 1. Modal shares of the gross product of the sector in 1991 (%)

Others8%

Telecommunications
share
14%

Sea transport
share
34%

Pipeline transport
share
13%
Rail transport
share
2%

Air transportshare
6%Road transport share
23%

Source: Statistics Norway.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
There have not been any very important changes in traffic trends since the 1991-92 study. The
statistics supplied are not very recent, as Norway has not recently carried out a specific study of
traffic trends.

267

Freight traffic
Domestic traffic
Figure 2. Trend in domestic freight transport
Million tonnes

400
350

400
Total transport including the oiland natural gas fields
in the North Sea2

350

300

300
Total freight1

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0
1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

0
1994

1. Domestic surface traffic (sea, rail, road) and floating of logs, although this last river-sea “mode” has tended to disappear
since 1985.
2. North Sea traffic is oil and natural gas by ship and pipelines from the oil and gas installations.
Source: Institute of Transport Economics, Norway.

Figure 3. Trend in domestic freight traffic
Tonnes-km

22 00022 000
20 000

Sea transport

Road transport

Rail transport

20 00018 00018 000

16 000

16 000

14 000

14 000

12 000

12 000

10 000

10 000

8 000

8 000

6 000

6 000

4 000

4 000

2 000

2 000

0
1980

1985

1990

1991

Source: Institute of Transport Economics, Norway.

268

1992

1993

0
1994

For some ten years, freight traffic for the three main modes has remained fairly stable at around
300 million tonnes. Nonetheless, the effects of the economic recession were felt in 1993 when total
traffic fell to 280 million tonnes, the level of 1980. In 1994, however, the freight level returned tothat of 1991-92.

Domestic freight traffic trends in the main transport modes, 1980-1994
Total
Million tonnes
Million tonne-km

1980
281.5
16 703.0

1985
287.3
17 489.0

1990
300.9
18 936.0

1991
292.2
18 378.0

1992
286.4
18 977.0

1993
280.4
18 933.0

1994
293.7
19 221.0

International traffic
Figure 4. Trend in international traffic
Million tonnes

80

80Road transport
Rail transport
Sea transport

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

1970

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1991
226
8 286

1992
222
8 348

1995

1996

0

Source: Institute of Transport Economics, Norway.

Road transport
Road transport
Million tonnes
Million tonne-km

1980
210.1
5 252.0

1985
216.3
6 418.0

1990
231
8 231

269

1993
218
8 413

1994
232
8 876

Despite the large volume of traffic on the North Sea, road haulage remains the dominant mode,with 79 per cent of the tonnage transported in 1994. The volume of freight has increased very little
since the beginning of the decade: the 1994 tonnage is the same as that of 1990, after increasing by
7 per cent between 1985 and 1990.

Figure 5. Total goods vehicles
In thousands
180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0
1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

0
1996

Source: Statistics Norway.

The commercial vehicle stock has grown less rapidly since the beginning of the 1990s, and thegrowth rate has been below that of the 1980s.

Rail transport
Trend in domestic rail traffic, 1980-1994

Million tonnes
Million tonne-km

1980
9.4
1 657.0

1985
9.1
1 771.0

1990
6.8
1 630.0

1991
6.8
1 717.01992
6.0
1 305.0

1993
5.6
1 754.0

1994
4.9
1 599.0

Domestic rail transport is being increasingly used for long distances, but in volume terms(tonnage) traffic has halved in the past 15 years. International rail traffic (imports and exports) has
held up better.

270

Figure 6. Trend in NSB domestic traffic
Million net tonnes-km

1 800

1 800
Domestic traffic

1 600

1 600

International traffic

1 400

1 400

1 200

1 200

1 000

1 000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

1989

1990

1992

1991

0
1993

1994

Source: Statistics Norway.

Figure 7. Domestic and international traffic, by product
Percentage

40

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

Agro-products

Logs

Metal products

Source: Statistics Norway.

271

Joint cargo

Pulp, paper

Other
commodities

0Maritime transport

Trend in maritime transport, 1980-94

Million tonnes
Million tonne-km

1980
62
9 794

1985
61.9
9 300.0

1990
63.1
9 073.0

1991
59.4
8 374.0

1992
58.4
8 883.01993
56.8
8 746.01994
56.8
8 746.0

Domestic maritime freight traffic fell in favour of road transport, but this mode is still used forlong-distance transport. In tonne-km, its share of total traffic is the same as that of road haulage,
45 per cent.

Air transport
Total traffic volume, domestic and international, amounted to 76 964 tonnes in 1993, of which
46 077 tonnes were domestic. Domestic air freight transport does not appear in tonnes, but only intonne-km, because air is used above all for the rapid transport of high value-added light freight. In
1994, it amounted to only 20 million tonne-km.

Passenger traffic
Public transport by road still plays an important role in passenger transport, despite the rise in car
use. As for rail transport, it would appear that rail services are better adapted to demand forpassenger transport than for freight transport.
Figure 8 - Passenger transport modal split in
1994
Air
6%

Railw ays
5%
Buses
9%
Boats
1%

Cars
79%

Source: Institute of Transport Economics, Norway.

272

Road transport
Road is clearly the dominant mode for both public and private transport, with over three-quartersof total traffic. However, cars and buses are mainly used for daily home-work travel. The average
length of a trip by car is 14 km, far behind air travel, at 425 km.
Bus transport has represented 280 million passengers a year over the past ten years, or a slight
fall as against the period 1960-80: -7 per cent.

Trend in regular bus traffic, 1987-91

Million passenger-km
Thousand passengers
Capacity utilisation (%)

1987
3 742.8284 044.0
23.0

1988
3 900.
276 500.0
23.8

1989
3 955.6
285 400.0
24.9

1990
3 890.3
277 500.0
23.3

1991
3 935.1
287 100.0
22.7

Figure 9. Number of private cars
In thousands

1 655

1 655

1 650

1 650

1 645

1 645

1 640

1 640

1 635

1 635

1 630

1 630

1 625

1 625

1 620

1 620

1 615

1 615

1 610

1 610

1 605

1 605

1 600
1989

1990

1991

1992

Source: Statistics Norway.

Car ownership has increased at a particularly rapid rate since 1991.

273

1993

1 600
1994

Rail transport
Trend in rail traffic, 1970-94
Million passengers

NSB (state railways)
Suburban traffic
Total traffic

1970
29
91
120

1980
37
95
132

1985
34
85
119

1990
34
81
115

1991
33
82
115

1992
36
81
117

1993
37
86
123

1994
38
87
125

Rail traffic has remained fairly stable since 1970 and, in 1994 was broken down as follows:
70 per cent of the passengers used suburban trains and 30 per cent mainline services.
NSB, Norwegian Railways, increased its share of total rail traffic by 5 per cent between 1970
and 1980 and since then this total has remained fairly steady at some 38 million passengers a year. In
international transport, the volume of rail traffic is less than 1 million passengers, despite a revival ofinternational passenger traffic since 1992. This type of traffic is a declining share of the total volumeof activity of the NSB : 0.6 per cent in 1995.

Air transport
Norwegian air traffic amounts to 18 million passengers a year, of whom 55 per cent on domestic
flights. Traffic has been growing since 1980, but as a public transport mode its share of the total
number of passengers remains negligible at less than 1 per cent.
In terms of passenger-km, total air traffic is growing strongly, up 27 per cent since 1990. This
growth is explained by the great increase in traffic for destinations in Greece, Spain and Turkey.

Trend in domestic air transport, 1980-94
Millions passengers

Passengers

1980
3

1985
5

1990
7

1991
7

1992
7

1993
8

1994
10

Domestic air traffic, which more than doubled in volume between 1980 and 1990, seems to havestabilised in recent years at some 8 million passengers a year.

274Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
Road infrastructures
Length and composition of the Norwegian road network. 1988-93
Kilometres

Total road network, ofwhich:
National roads
Provincial roads
Local roads

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

87 57826 03026 84534 70388 17426 14726 84935 17788 92226 221
26 97435 72789 13526 26527 00435 86689 73726 386
26 97836 37390 50226 40627 05037 046

The trunk road network is the backbone of the Norwegian road system. It connects different
parts of Norway together and connects Norway to the rest of Europe. It represents about 25 per centof the national road network, and about 40 per cent of the total transport on roads is on trunk roads.
Road surfaces in 1990
% of paved
roads*
70%
98%
66%
55%

Total road network, of which:
National roads
Provincial roads
Local roads (in 1993)* Including roads in towns.

% of unpaved
roads
30%
2%
34%
45%

Rail infrastructures
Composition of the Norwegian rail network, 1993
Length (km)NSB Lines
Private railway lines*
Tramways and rapid transit systems

4 023
16
217

of whichelectrified
2 422
16

* Length as of 1 July 1991.

Major infrastructure projects
The Nordic Triangle is a joint project involving Finland, Sweden and Norway. It defines a
network of rail and road infrastructures linking the towns of Oslo, Göteborg, Copenhagen, Stockholmand Helsinki. At the Essen conference in December 1994, this project was recognised as a priority,
despite Norway’s refusal to join the European Union.
275

Road infrastructures in the Nordic Triangle
Route E6 running from Oslo to the Swedish border in the direction of Göteborg measures
120 km. This is the main route in the direction of Sweden and the continent. At present, about
50 per cent of all freight transported to and from Norway takes this road. Its modernisation isestimated to cost some ECU 240 million initially and a further 120 million later. The cost of theconnection at Oslofjord is estimated at ECU 150 million. It would be the key element in the transportsystem between the Oslofjord region and Europe because it provides a link between the E18 to thewest of Oslofjord and the E6 to the east.
Parliament has given its approval for the construction of the E6 as a motorway between Oslo and
Svinesund at the Swedish border before the year 2000.
Route E18, running from Oslo to the Swedish border in the direction of Stockholm, measures
100 km in all. This is the second major route (for freight traffic) between Norway and Sweden, after
the E6. Its modernisation will cost some ECU 415 million. Parliament has approved the upgradingof the E18 to motorway standard between Oslo and the county of Akershus as a long-term project.
The Oslo main roads plan (already approved by Parliament) includes sections of roads belonging
to the E6 and E18 routes. The work is being financed partly out of the receipts of the Oslo Toll Ringand partly out of public funds.

Rail infrastructures in the Nordic Triangle
The Østfold line crosses this county and is at present 170 km long. It is the main rail link
between Oslo and the south-eastern border with Sweden. The long-term investment programme
drawn up by the NSB provides for:− the construction of double-track line between Oslo and Halden (already started);− the modernisation of the single-track line between Halden and the border;− the construction of a new double-track link between Oslo and Ski, in addition to the existingline.
The cost of this work is estimated at ECU 1 200/1 300 million.
The Kongsvinger line running from Lillestrøm (6 km east of Oslo) to the Swedish border,
between Magnor (Norway) and Charlottenberg (Sweden), is part of the Oslo-Stockholm rail link andmeasures 115 km. The rail section between Oslo and Lillestrøm will be upgraded as part of aprogramme for high-speed operation of a new line linking the capital to Gardermoen international
airport. The work will be completed in 1998. Apart from the Oslo-Lillestrom section, this line will
be single-track with overtaking sidings.
This Kongsvinger line is already of a fairly high technical standard as compared with the rest of
the single-track network, and it should be possible to increase average speeds at fairly moderate cost.

276

Priority projects at national level
Norway gives six road projects as among the most important. They generally concern the
primary road network, but three are located on roads of international interest.

CountyRoad

Nature of the work

Date

Buskerud

National road n°11
Construction of a new section (initially 2 lanes) over
Drammen-Mjøndalen section 12 km
Vestfold
E18, Gutu-Helland section
Construction of a new section (initially 2 lanes) over
30 km
HordalandRoad n°555
Construction of a 1.6 km section in the west corridorNygårdstangen-Gyldenpris
of Bergensection
Sogn og
E16, Aurland-Laerdal
Construction of a tunnel of 24 km, replacing theFjordane
sectionpresent ferry line
Sør Trøndelag National road n°714
Construction of submarine tunnels:
Connection between theone of 5,8 km between Hitra and Frøya
islands of Hitra and Frøya
one of 4,9 km between Hitra and the mainland
and the mainland
Construction of a bridge connecting Hitra to
Fjellværøy
Finnmark
E69, connection of the island Construction of a new E road, with a submarineof Magerøya with thetunnel of 6.8 km, an overhead tunnel of 4 km andmainland
640 m of bridges

19951999
19952000
19951998
19942000Planning
under
way

Cost
(Million
NKr)
738
1 100
520

825
Not
estimated

19931998

770

In rail infrastructures, there are priority projects on four lines, as shown on the annex map.
Project
N°
1

Nature of the work

Date

Gardermoen

Construction of a high-speed line between Oslo and the
airport, then north as far as Eidsvoll

1995-1998

Cost(Million NKr)
5 645

2

Oslo-Eidsvoll

1995-1998

640

3

Vestfold

Construction of a link and crossing between the existingOslo-Eidsvoll line and the new Gardermoen line
Construction of a double-track section on the existing line
(at present single-track) :3.1 Between Åshaugen, Sande and Holm
3.2 Between Skoger and Åshaugen
Upgrading of the existing line through reducing thenumber of curves and making certain sections double-track(Tunga-Finse and Gråskallen)

1996-1998
1996-2000
1993-1999

400
400
425

4

Line

Oslo-Bergen

Question 3: Capacity problems
For road transport, traffic loads vary greatly from one county to another and also from one
section of road to another. Average daily traffic is among the highest in the county of Akershus overa section of the E18, at 90 000 vehicles in 24 hours. On another section of the road, on the border
between the counties of Telemark and Aust-Agder, average daily traffic is about 4 000 vehicles in277

24 hours. Certain counties, such as Sogn og Fjordane, have average daily traffic volumes of between
1 051 and 1 985 vehicles in 24 hours, depending on the road sections surveyed.
The number of road accidents has remained stable for over ten years, with an average of
8 500 accidents a year. This figure is the second best in Europe, after Iceland.

Question 4: Measures
A major challenge in the years ahead will be to improve mobility, both for the population and forcommerce and industry, within the limits imposed by environmental concerns and traffic safety,
especially in urban areas. In particular, environmental considerations will place constraints ontransport policy. One of the government’s challenges is to promote greater co-ordination and balance
between different zoning and transport solutions, on the one hand, and regard for natural and culturalenvironmental issues, on the other, so as to diminish controversial encroachments. The Government
also attaches importance to the initiation for measures which abate environmental and traffic accident
problems, especially in urban areas, and which contribute to reducing or stabilising emission levels.
The government plans to develop administrative management schemes and planning systems andprocesses that facilitate global solutions for the use of existing transport systems and co-ordinatedinvestment projects. The government plans to emphasise the development and use of information
technology with a view to improving transport efficiency.
Improved co-ordination among sectors is a way to meet transport policy goals at the lowest
possible cost. One important challenge is achieving efficient co-ordination through close contact
between land and sea transport in ports and combined transport arrangements. The government also
attaches importance to greater co-operation on measures to establish joint public transport terminals,
provide better facilities for transferring from one means of transport to another, and improve fare andticketing systems, etc.

278

POLAND
Area: 312 685 km²
Population: 38 600 000

The years 1990-93 saw a substantial fall in the output of basic industry and therefore in railtransport of steel products, fertilisers, coal and construction materials. At the same time, (smaller)
enterprises in wholesale and retail trade, services and production of consumer goods, which generally
use road transport, developed considerably.
The pattern of foreign trade also changed, with trade with eastern Europe declining, while thatwith the west increased.
Also during this period household incomes fell and unemployment rose, with 3 million people(or 15 per cent of the active population) out of work. Despite this, car ownership rates increased
rapidly.
Between 1990 and 1992, GDP fell by 20 per cent, from 649 525 billion to 538 609.1 billion old
zlotys, but in 1993 there was an increase of 4 per cent. Freight transport increased by 6 per cent.
Both Polish and foreign experts predict GDP growth of 5 to 6 per cent a year for the next few years.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Particularly strong traffic growth is expected in the Baltic region in the period to 2010. Studies
show considerable development of both freight and passenger flows (notably tourists) between Poland
and Sweden, Denmark and Norway. Traffic from the Baltic to Europe is expected to increase by
80 per cent, traffic from Sweden and Denmark by 60 per cent and from Finland by 64 per cent.
Poland should have the highest growth, with a 170 per cent increase in total volume of traffic in theBaltic region.

Passenger traffic
The studies of modal split for 2005 predict an increase in the market share of air transport and in
car ownership rates. The number of rail and bus passengers is expected to decline, whereas in 1992,
development scenarios to 2000 predicted an increase in public transport by both rail and road.

279

Passenger transport modal split in Poland
Percentage of passenger-km
Mode
Car
Rail
Bus
Air

1990
39.1
30.9
27.4
2.6

1995
66.1
13.9
17.6
2.4

2000
69.3
12.1
15.2
3.4

2005
73.2
10.1
12.7
4

Forecasts for traffic volume indicate a somewhat different modal split for 2005 and an evengreater increase in car use, with the number of those using cars multiplied by three. An increase in
the number of users of road and rail public transport is however expected as of 1995. It seems that
there is a change in patterns, rather than usage, with greater numbers adopting public transport for
shorter trips.

Passenger traffic trends, 1990-2010
Million passengers

Rail
%
Bus
%
Air
%
Waterway
%
Sea
%
Car
%
Total

1990
789.9
15.9
2 084.7
41.8
1.7
0.02
3.8
0.07
0.6
0.01
2 099.0
42.2
4 979.7

1993
541.1
10.3
1 380.8
26.4
1.4
0.03
0.6
0.01
0.7
0.01
3 310.5
63.2
5 235

1995
465.9
8.6
1 423.1
26.3
1.8
0.03
0.6
0.01
0.7
0.0
3 512.365
5 404.2

2000
638.2
9.7
1 618.4
24.6
3.5
0.05
0.7
0.01
0.9
0.01
4 309.5
65.6
6 571.2

2005
750.7
9.5
1 800.6
22.8
5.9
0.06
0.7
0.01
1.2
0.02
5 351.9
67.7
7 911

2010
888.4
9.7
1 850.1
20.3
9.2
0.1
0.8
0.01
1.9
0.02
6 352.6
69.8
9 103

Air transport
For air transport, the number of passengers is increasing more rapidly than the distances covered.
The domestic market still seems to account for a substantial proportion of total traffic.
Maritime transport
Passenger transport by sea in the Baltic is growing very strongly and the forecasts for this area
confirm this trend.

280

Ferry traffic in Polish ports to 2010

Passengers
Cars

1993
690 000
130 0002010
1 900 000
450 000

Freight transport
Road transport is expected to increase by 30 per cent between 1995 and 2005. Rail transport andpipelines will see traffic decline. However, in tonne-km, rail transport should keep a large share of
the traffic.

Freight transport modal split
Percentage of t-km

Road
Rail
Waterway
Pipeline

1990
29.1
60.1
0.7
10.1

1995
38.1
51.3
0.6
10.0

2000
45.2
46.8
0.5
7.5

2005
49.5
44.1
0.4
6.0

For volume of freight transported, the declining trend of the early 1990s ceased in 1993, andthere has even been an increase of about 1.5 per cent.

Freight volume on the domestic Polish market, 1990-2010
Million tonnes transported and percentage of total domestic freight

Rail
%
Road
%
Pipeline%
Waterway
%
Sea
%
Total

1990
281.7
17.1
1 292.3
78.6
33.0
2.0
9.8
0.6
28.0
1.7
1 644.8

1993
214.2
15.9
1 071.2
79.4
31.2
2.3
8.7
0.7
23.9
1.8
1 349.2

1995
225.3
16.3
1 086.7
78.8
33.3
2.4
9.3
0.7
24.9
1.8
1 379.5

2000
289.7
15.8
1 459.8
79.6
44.3
2.4
11.1
0.6
29
1.6
1 833.9

2005
336.3
15.2
1 769.8
80.2
53.3
2.4
12.4
0.6
35.4
1.6
2 207.2

2010
367.9
15.2
1 935.9
80.2
57.8
2.4
14.1
0.6
38.4
1.6
2 414.1

Road transport
Private road haulage has developed enormously and taken freight away from the railways.
281

Waterway transport
Waterway transport is the least important mode, because of inadequate infrastructures and theshallow draught of the rivers. However, it is stable, whatever the economic trend.
Rail transport
For many years the railways dominated freight transport, but their market share is falling
drastically and a dynamic recovery is unlikely owing to the economic recession in Europe. The slightincrease in volume transported between 1993 and 1994 was due both to the generally improved
economic situation in Poland (and a revival of demand) and to increased efforts by the railways,
notably for rates.
Combined transport
Combined transport is a fairly new concept in Poland and has enormous potential. Initial traffic
estimates for combined transport in 2010 predict volume of 6 to 8 million tonnes. Increases in thevolume of intermodal consignments are expected to concern particularly the seaports and the eastwest corridor through the central regions of the country.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructures and investment projects
Poland’s location, at the crossroads of the European Union, the CIS countries, central Europe,
the Scandinavian countries and the Balkan countries, obliges it to develop an efficient transport
network that meets European standards. In order to build such a network, government policy takes
into account the natural development of these transit flows and the traffic induced by the country’s
possible integration into the European Union. From this standpoint, Poland should play an importantrole in the framework of the TEN.

Road infrastructures
Infrastructures used by international traffic
Recognising the needs of domestic and international traffic, the Polish authorities approved a
motorway and expressway development programme in 1993. According to the government, this willbe the biggest Polish infrastructure investment project of the next 15-20 years. It is essential in viewof the present congestion on the main international routes. It is also presented as an optimal solution
from the environmental standpoint and should permit the more rapid integration of the Polishtransport system into the European system.
On 27 July 1993, the Polish cabinet accepted the motorway construction programme in its
decision 63/93. In December 1993, the Cabinet’s Economic Committee recommended that thisprogramme be extended from 1 961 km to 2 600 km.
This project includes a section, already completed, of 140 km of roads to be set up as toll roads.
A section of 200 km of single and dual carriageway is to be entirely modernised.

282

In 1994, the cost of constructing these motorways was estimated at $7.8-8 billion.
The following motorways are part of the priority corridors of the TEN, as defined at the Crete
Conference. These projects thus concern horizon 2010:
−
−
−
−
−

A1 (Helsinki) Gdansk-Lodz-Katowice-Gorzyce (Zilina). This motorway constitutes a sectionof the TEM network, serving 11 European countries and providing a link with eastern Europe;
A2 (Berlin) Swiecko-Poznan-Lodz-Warsaw-Terespol (Minsk-Moscow);
A4 (Dresden) Zgorzelec-Wroclaw-Katowice-Krakow-Przemysl (Kiev);
A12 (Berlin) Olszyna-Krzywa (Legnica).
one expressway linking Warsaw, Suwalki and Szypliski (Kaunas-Riga-Tallinn) (Via Baltica).

Two other motorways are also included in this programme because they could form part of the
TEN in the future:−−

A3 Szczecin-Lubawka-Czech border (Prague);
A8 Lodz-Wroclaw-Bolkow-Lubawka.

All these links are of equal importance for the development of the motorway programme, and all
are to be toll motorways. The legal framework for building toll motorways was recently establishedwith the passage of the Toll Motorways Act.
The growing demand for road transport (with 6.5 million vehicles) means that the government
must develop and modernise the roads, but also parking facilities. Differentiation of the road system
is also necessary to meet the needs of the different users. The construction of bypasses is essential toensure the smooth flow of transit traffic and eliminate congestion zones on urban roads.
The ten short-term national projects
These are infrastructure or upgrading projects on axes located outside the TEN corridors:
1.

Modernisation of the E-36 road (A6 motorway), Kolbaskowo-Szczecin section

This is a section of 21 km in the direction of the border with Germany at Kolbaskowo.
Modernisation involves reinforcing the existing concrete carriageway, widening the hard shoulders to
2.75 m, building soft shoulders, erecting safety barriers, constructing interchanges for access roads
and second lanes on the bridges over the West Odra (length 206 m) and East Odra (length 227 m).
Work started in 1995 and is scheduled for completion in 1997. The cost of the project is 32.8 million
new zlotys.
2.

Construction of a bridge at Wyszogrod

Construction of a bridge of 1 200 m over the Vistula together with new access roads (10 km) andregulation of the river over 4.5 km. Work should start in 1996 and be completed in 1998. The total
cost is estimated at 114.7 million zlotys.

283

3.

Elimination of bottlenecks on the E-65 road (road N° 3) over the following sections:
−
−
−

4.

the Nowa Sol bypass (1st stage), involving the construction of 9.5 km of road, one rail bridge
and three road bridges;
construction of a bypass of 3.4 km round Stare Czarnowo-Zabow, bitumen shoulders over alength of 10.4 km and reinforcement of the carriageway;
the opening of an interchange at Niedoradz in 1998 (work begun in 1994). The project will
cost 57.4 million zlotys.

Road No. 944, reconstruction of a section of 26.2 km between Zywiec and Zwardon (Slovak
border crossing)

The work involves reinforcing the existing road, building a new carriageway to third classtechnical standards and building certain civil engineering works. Work started in 1995 and is
expected to take five years and cost 64.1 million zlotys.
5.

Modernisation of road No. 817 (Radzyn) Wisznica-Slowatycze

This section will provide a new border crossing with Belarus (Slowatycze-Domaczewo). In
addition to the renovation of 21 km, the work, started in 1995, also involves widening the existingroad from 6 to 7 m, with reinforcement of the structure and improvement of the longitudinal profile.
Total cost is estimated at 14 million zlotys by the end of 1997.
6.

Elimination of bottlenecks on the E-77 road (road No. 7) over the following sections:−−−

Construction of a second carriageway over 21.9 km and seven grade-separated interchanges(including one at Siedlin, at the intersection of national roads Nos. 7 and 10) between
Zakroczym and Plonsk.
Bypass of 5.3 km round Milomlyn, reconstruction of the perpendicular road and constructionof a pedestrian crossing on two levels.
Construction of a second carriageway over 10.9 km between Jedlynsk and Radom and abridge over the Mleczna, reconstruction of the existing intersections with the perpendicularroads, modernisation of the traffic island, installation of lighting.

These projects, planned for implementation between 1993 and 1997, are expected to cost
106.5 million zlotys.
7.

Modernisation of road No. 15 Wojkowice-Jezor over a length of 23.8 km

The aim is to increase the carrying capacity of the carriageway and improve safety. It is planned
to comb the existing road surface over constructions and accesses, replace existing concrete pavementwith bitumen, improve the surface of the shoulders, and construct a new polymer-based carriageway.
The bridge is also to be renovated, with the construction of a reinforcement slab adapted tolongitudinal and transversal expansion and contraction. The beams and trusses of this bridge are also
to be protected. The work is planned for 1995 and 1996, for a total cost of 40.3 million zlotys.

284

8.

Elimination of the bottlenecks on road No. 15 Wojkowice-Jezor over a length of 23.8 km

This work involves reinforcing the existing carriageway and building a hard shoulder on the
Zakret-Kolbiel section (over 15.6 km), reinforcing the existing carriageway over a length of 11.1 km
between Kurow and Garbow, and reinforcing the existing carriageway and constructing hardshoulders over a length of 8.6 km between Ryki and Zyrzyn. Two years of work are planned from1995, at a cost of 30 million zlotys.
9.

Construction and modernisation of roads Nos. 132 and 133

This concerns 56.6 km of road for the German border crossing (at Kostrzyn), at the intersection
with road No. 22, and involves reconstructing the urban segment of road No. 132 to Gorzow
Wielkopolski.
It is also planned to construct four bypasses, reinforce the carriageway to 100 kN/axle, widen theroad and build a bridge over the railway. At Gorzow Wielkopolski, a new section of road No. 132 is
to be built, with a bridge over the Ulga canal. The cost of this project is 116.4 million zlotys for five
years of work (1995-2000).
10. Modernisation of roads Nos. 274 and 275, which lead to the German border crossing at Gubinek
This involves building a bypass at Gubin and a new bridge over the Nysa (length 12 km),increasing the loading capacity to 100 kN/axle, widening one carriageway and the shoulders,constructing two bypasses around villages and renovating the road bridge. The north-west bypass ofZielona Gora is also part of the programme. This work (1995-97) will cost 93.2 million zlotys.

Rail infrastructure
The Polish rail network is relatively well developed, even by western European standards. The
density is about 7.2 km standard gauge rail track per 100 km². The total length of the standard gauge
rail is some 23 300 km.
This mode of transport is fairly accessible, thanks to a dense network of some 2 000 freightstations and over 1 700 passenger stations. Of 33 500 km of mainline track, 9 400 have type UIC 60
rails, and some 5 000 are suitable for a loading of 225 kN/axle. In all, 11 496 km of track areelectrified, or 49 per cent of the standard gauge lines (3 kV DC). In 1995, 90 per cent of the total
traffic (in tonne-km) was transported by electric traction.
International routes
The main international rail routes involving Poland are those defined by the AGC agreement,
signed in Geneva in May 1985:−−−−

E59 Swinoujscie-Szczecin-Wroclaw-Opole-Chalupki;
E65 Gdynia-Gdansk-Warsaw-Katowice-Zebrzydowice;
E20 Kunowice-Poznan-Warsaw-Terespol;
E30 Zgorzelec-Wroclaw-Katowice-Krakow-Przemysl/Medyka;

285

with the following complementary routes:−−−

Zgorzelec(alternating
withMiedzylesie)
Wroclaw-Wielun-Belchatow-Piotrkow
Tryb-Idzikowice-Kuznica-Bialostocka, particularly for freight traffic;
for international passenger traffic on the Rome-Vienna-Warsaw-Vilnius-Saint Petersburgroute two new stretches appear essential: Idzikowice-Piotrkow and Belchatow-WielunWroclaw;
for international passenger services on the Scandinavia-southern Europe route (KracowPielkielko-Muszyna), the construction of the Krakow-Tymbark stretch is also planned.

In all, the Polish network has over 5 000 km of lines of international importance.
The enhanced speed and quality of rail services over these links will make it possible to compete
effectively with road and air transport.
The master programme drawn up by the PKP for the development of rail infrastructures up to2010 provides for the modernisation of a certain number of lines.
The government intends to modernise the E20 line over its entire length, i.e. from the Germanborder (Kunowice) to the Belarus border (Terespol), in two stages:−−

First, the section to the west of Kunowice via Poznan (478 km). The work, started in 1992,
should be completed in 1997 at a cost of ECU 487 million, partly funded by the European
Union through the PHARE plan.
Second, the 210 km of the Warsaw-Terespol section, with the bypass round Warsaw (length
182 km). A feasibility study (financed by the PHARE plan), carried out by the Italiancompany TEAM, is currently under way.

For the E65 line, studies and tests with Pendolino trains in May 1994 over the Magistrale
Centrale Rail (CMK) section, from Grodzisk Maz to Zawiercie showed that it was possible to run at
250 km/h. The PKP plans to adapt this line for 250 km/h operation. This project, together with themodernisation of the following section, Zawiercie-Katowice-Zebrzydowice, will permit high-quality
links in the year 2000, with speeds of at least 160 km/h between Warsaw, Krakow and Katowice andon to Prague, Bratislava, Budapest and Vienna.
The third priority is the modernisation of the E30 line for passenger and combined transport
traffic. Joint work with the DB AG on the Dresden-Wroclaw section results from the joint applicationby the PKP and the DB AG to the European Commission for the attribution of PHARE aid for afeasibility study. The PKP management received a favourable opinion for the financing of such a
study (carried out by the French company Systra).
A similar agreement was concluded with the Ukrainian Railways (UZ) concerning themodernisation of the line between Przemysl and Lvov. This involves introducing 1 435 mm gauge
track on this line and installing it in the Lvov international passenger station (now in the planningstage). This would make possible better connections to Kiev, Odessa and the other major Ukrainian
towns. This project, according to the PKP, merits European Union financial aid under the TACIS
programme. The modernisation of the entire line would permit operating speeds of 160 km/h.

286Rail projects outside the priority corridors
The PKP has proposed a further nine projects for the modernisation of rail sections:
1. E59 Swinoujscie-Szczecin-Poznan-Wroclaw-Opole-Chalupki with the modernisation of theborder crossing at Chalupki;
2. CE59 Swinoujscie-Szczecin-Zielona Gora-Wroclaw-Opole-Chalupki;
3. C59/1 Nowa Sol-Wegliniec-Zawidow with the modernisation of the border crossing at
Zawidow;
4. C59/2 Wroclaw-Miedzylesie with the modernisation of the border crossing at Miedzylesie;
5. C30/1 Krakow-Tymbark-Muszyna with a branch for Tymbark-Zakopane;
6. Warsaw-Lublin-Dorohusk (Kijow) with the modernisation of the border crossing at
Dorohusk;
7. Chelm-Hrebenne (Lvov) with the modernisation of the border crossing at Hrebenne;
8. Gdansk-Bydgoszcz-Poznan;
9. E26 Wroclaw-Idzikowice/Lodz-Warsaw
For each of these projects, the PKP has already started or intends to start work consideredparticularly urgent, such as:
−

−

−

−

−

−

−

Ad 1-E59: Modernisation of the Poznan-Wroclaw section to permit operation at 160 km/h
has begun. The work is financed from the state budget and should be completed in 2000. In
the meantime, the Swinoujscie-Chalupki section is also to be upgraded to operate at
160 km/h.
Ad 2,3-CE59: For this route, feasibility studies are being carried out in partnership with the
Czech Railways, because in the longer term the rail link between Poland and theCzech Republic will be modernised.
Ad 4-C59/2: Partial modernisation of this line involves electrification of the Klodzko-Polishborder section and is financed by the PKP. The Klodzko-Miedzylesie section is already inservice. For the missing section at the border, the Polish authorities have applied forinternational financial aid, through the PHARE programme. The application for financing(0.8 million ECU) for the feasibility studies for the E59 and C59/2 lines has been submitted.
Ad 5-C30/1: On the Krakow-Tarnow-Muszyna section, journey times are very long and notsuitable for international trains going to Slovakia. Construction of the missing KrakowTymbark section (35 km) and upgrading for 120 km/h operation from Muszyna will make itpossible to reduce journey times considerably and offer better services to passengers. This isalso true of the whole of this line. In addition, the results of feasibility studies are very
favourable.
Ad 6-Warsaw-Lublin-Dorohusk (Kijow): The PKP plans to upgrade the Warsaw-Lublin
section to 160 km/h, in line with a programme drawn up in collaboration with Ukraine. The
studies and financing plans have been accepted.
Ad 7-Chelem-Hrebenne (Lvov): The PKP, in co-operation with Ukraine Railways has
modernised the border crossing at Hrebenne/Rawa Ruska in order to develop passenger traffic
on this line, despite the need to change trains at Rawa Ruska for the 1 520 mm gauge.
Ad 8-Gdansk-Bydgoszcz-Poznan: PKP traffic studies show that this is a very important line
for both freight and passengers. It links three industrial centres (notably those involved inadvanced industries: mechanical and electrical engineering, shipbuilding, etc.). The PKP
strategic plan for 2015 includes modernisation of this line to permit operation at 160 km/h.

287

−

Ad 9-E26: The PKP is at present seeking the best solution for improving this line, either by
the modernisation of the existing Wroclaw-Lodz-Warsaw link, or by the construction of a
new line between these towns.

Combined transport infrastructures
There are at present nine land and three sea multimodal terminals in Poland. The main
combined transport facilities are located at Gdynia, Malaszewicze, Lodz, Poznan, Wroclaw, Gliwice,
Sosnowiec, Warsaw and Krakow. The capacity of the Polish system should increase considerably inthe next three to five years, so as to handle efficiently the expected domestic and international freighttraffic flows.

Air transport infrastructures
Over the next decade, it is planned to upgrade the terminals, parking facilities, signalling andapproach systems of the existing airports to meet ICAO standards. The investments concern GdanskRebiechowo, Krakow-Balice, Wroclaw-Strachowice, Poznan and Warsaw-Okecie airports. For thelast, a new control tower is also scheduled.
Warsaw-Okecie airport should continue to play an important role for international and nationaltraffic. The building of a new terminal is envisaged. International traffic is expected to increase at
Gdansk and Krakow airports and, to a lesser extent, at some regional airports.
Special efforts are to be made to implement the Uniform Air Traffic Control Management
System which should bring together air traffic control, air traffic flow management and airspace
management, with a view to joining the European Union, conforming to the European Uniform
System, and meeting NATO needs.

Conclusion
Considerable foreign capital is required in order to implement the priority projects. According
to the budget forecasts, foreign investments will have to cover half of the financing for upgrading
Polish infrastructures to European Union standards (according to the AGR, AGC and AGTC
agreements). The authorities need to obtain some $500 to $600 million a year (or 10 per cent of theforeign investment necessary to transform the Polish economy). These estimates take into accountreceipts from toll motorways. The Polish government will have to guarantee the risks involved inthese investments.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Ecological and safety problems should encourage the use of all public transport modes, inparticular rail.
Many experts think that action in favour of the environment requires limiting the growth of roadtraffic and encouraging rail transport, especially because this mode has many advantages for the288

transport of bulk freight. This is important in a country where coal is the main raw materialtransported. However, there are those that argue that the modal split in the most developed western
European countries, which is largely favourable to road transport, should serve as the model for
liberalising access to the transport market.
Polish road transport is entirely liberalised but is experiencing problems. Competition can only
increase in coming years, so that operators must fight very hard in order not to be forced out of themarket. Only those capable of offering the best quality-price ratio will survive.
Many actors in the road transport sector will disappear, especially since the sector is now
dominated by SMEs, often family firms with a maximum of five vehicles. Measures to improve theworking conditions of these enterprises are necessary.
As regards infrastructures, the biggest problem in Poland remains the lack of financial resources
necessary for the rapid implementation of all the improvement projects.

Question 4: Measures
The Ministry of Transport and the Maritime Economy has been working since 1994 on atransport policy and programme of action to restructure transport to meet market economy
requirements and new conditions for economic co-operation in Europe. The Polish government has
approved it and parliament is to decide upon it shortly. The Ministry attaches particular importanceto improving conditions for international freight transit traffic, whatever the mode or direction. It istherefore paying particular attention to combined transport techniques.
The Polish government has initiated and supported the creation of a private enterprise, Polkombi,
to handle the present and future needs resulting from the growth of multimodal traffics. Polkombi
should therefore play a key role in the development of Polish combined transport. It has so far
already opened five regional branches, in Gdansk, Gdynia, Szczecin, Malaszwicze and Lodz.

289

PORTUGAL
Area: 92 000 km²
Population: 9.9 million

Question 1: Future freight traffic trends

Rail traffic
According to the Portuguese Ministry of Transport, there has been no significant change in rail
traffic since 1993. The growth rates forecast at that time remain valid. Accordingly, over the next
20 years the volume of traffic on the two main railway corridors (the northern line, i.e. the LisbonPorto corridor and the Beira Alta line) is expected to double.

Passenger and freight traffic trends
Millions
1985
Freight (t-km)
Passenger (p-km)

1993
1 665
5 400

5 730

1

1994
1 635
5 150

94-93
-2
-5

Road traffic
Passenger and freight traffic trends 2
Millions

Freight (t-km)
Passenger (p-km)

1985
62 5001993
9 957
94 6751994
11 190102 550

94-93+ 12.4+ 8.3

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
For the development of Portugal’s transport networks, priority is given to investment in the road
sector. Ports are receiving less and less funding, owing to the low value added generated by theiractivities (essentially the handling of domestic bulk traffic). Following the closure in the early 1990s291

of 500 km of regional railway lines as a result of low traffic levels, the Portuguese government has
become aware of the need to develop and modernise the existing network and has launched newinvestment programmes.

Figure 1. Share of investment allocated to each mode in 1985 and 1994
In percentage

80

80
71

70

Share in 1985
Share in 1994

65

70

60

60

50

50

40

40
30

30
22
18

20

20

11

10

10

6

5

2

0

0
Roads

Ports

Railway, underground railway,
tramway

Airports

Source: ECMT.

Railway infrastructure
The Railway Modernisation Plan for 1995-99 includes a number of investment projects, some ofwhich are already at an advanced stage.
The whole length of the Beira Alta line, for example, should be open for service by the first halfof 1997. Work on electrification and signalling is currently under way. The upgrading work aims toensure smoother traffic flows, increase line capacity and reliability, and cut journey times.
On the Castro Verde/Ermidas-Sines/Pêgo route, some project phases are currently nearing
completion, e.g. electrification of the section between Entroncamento-Abrantes and Mouriscas (in thenorth), and construction of the branch line to the thermal power station. Other work has now begun(for example, on electrification and signalling on the section between Setil and Poceirão in southern
Portugal).

292

Road infrastructure
The road infrastructure investment policy is set out in the Medium-term Road Plan. By the endof 1995, 63 per cent of the work scheduled on the main network (main routes) had been carried out,
as well as 40 per cent of the work on the rest of the network (additional routes).
The main network currently comprises 2 700 km of roads, some of which are to be designated as
toll motorways (provided traffic forecasts remain high). The additional network is 7 300 km long.
National network
Some sections of the national network still require costly modernisation work.
The motorway network continues to account for a significant share of the total volume of roadinfrastructure investment. In 1995, its share of total investment was 67.5 per cent. Furthermore, thelast concession contract (1996) identifies new projects aimed at developing the motorway network
further. The aim is to open an additional 717 km of toll sections in 1997 at a total cost of
ECU 1.3 billion; the initial investment in 1995 was ECU 400 million.
The new sections willcomplete the existing network and include bypasses around Lisbon and Porto, connections with the
Spanish network and links with the Algarve, a popular tourist destination.
Some sections are already under construction:− on the A3, the section connecting the town of Braga to the northern Portuguese border,scheduled for completion in 1997-98;− the A2 extension stretching from Marateca towards the border in south-east Portugal;− an A6 extension, linking Lisbon to the Spanish border.
Top priority has been given to construction of the A12 motorway linking Setúbal to Lisbon via abridge over the Tagus.
Local (or municipal) network
Over the past few years, the level of funds invested in the construction and modernisation of
local network infrastructure has continued to rise. Two main projects to improve road transport in themetropolitan area of Lisbon are under way:
− the CREL project, which involves the construction of an outer ring-road round the capital andis currently nearing completion;− the CRIL project, which involves the construction of an inner city ring-road.
Priority projects not included in the TEN
There are five road and two railway infrastructure investment projects which were not selected at
the Essen Summit.

293

The five road projects and their investment cost
MECU
Project location
1995
Main route 1, northern access to Freixo bridge
7 716
Main route 1, southern access to Freixo bridge
29 856Main route 2, Guarda-Covilhã (1st phase Guarda256
Benespera)
Main route 2, Castelo Branco-Soalheira link
9 228
Main route 5, Guarda-Vilar-Formoso (capacity0enhancement)
Total
47 056

1996
6 114
0
6 675

1995-99
13 83029 85646 116

14 9248 203

24 15345 11735 916

159 071

The two rail projects and their investment cost
MECU
Project location
Link to the Algarve
Northern line
Total

1995
1 025
12 817
13 843

1996
7 178
0
7 178

1995-1999
8 203
12 81721 020

Question 3: Capacity problems

Rail transport
Infrastructure capacity problems continue to exist on the Ovar-Granja, Alfarelos-Azanbuja andMortagua-Mangualde sections. Until work scheduled to be done on these “critical” section has been
completed, bottlenecks will remain.
The situation on other sections has deteriorated since 1993, given that more trains are needed
each day to cope with the growing demand for both passenger and freight traffic.
A frequent source of problems for the Portuguese railways is the absence of a railway line acrossthe Tagus. However, there are plans to build one in the near future on the “25 April” bridge.
Construction work has already begun on access lines to the bridge. A public invitation to tender has
been launched for the contract to build the track on the bridge superstructure. Introduction of regularpassenger service is scheduled for May 1998.

Road transport
The congested road sections are located on the outskirts of Portugal’s two largest cities: Lisbon
and Porto.

294

There are plans to solve the problem of traffic through Porto with the construction, in 1996, of a
new road linking the Freixo bridge to the A3 motorway (Braga-Porto).
Transit traffic through Lisbon remains a problem, but the situation should improve following theconstruction of a road link between Setúbal and Lisbon (A12). Work is scheduled for completion in1998 and includes a new bridge over the Tagus. Work on the bridge is already under way.
Apart from the A6 motorway, which provides excellent access by road to Spain, links connecting
the Portuguese network to its neighbour are poor, particularly in terms of capacity. Consequently,
most of the motorway projects are aimed at developing high-speed, high-capacity links with Spain.
At present, the central government is responsible for maintaining and developing the national
and local road network. Responsibility for the 12 000 km of local roads is gradually being transferredto the municipalities, which, however, sometimes lack sufficient financial resources to develop the
projects planned, not to mention the necessary know-how to implement them.

Question 4: Measures
All the measures to be taken aim at modernising and developing the road and rail networks.

NOTES

1.

National and international rail traffic.

2.

These data cover national transport for vehicles with Portuguese number plates. National
passenger transport includes private car, bus and coach traffic.

295

ROMANIA
Area: 238 391 km²
Population: 22 680 951

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic

Road traffic
Romania supplied very little road traffic data. A road transport survey is currently under way.
Freight traffic
In 1995, a general survey of road traffic in Romania revealed that international road traffic(Romania imports and exports) accounted for 7 per cent of movements and transit traffic 4 per cent.
Passenger traffic
Romania did not supply information on passenger traffic.

Rail traffic
Since 1993 a series of studies have been carried out on trends in rail traffic. The subject areas
covered are:−−−the restructuring organised by the Railways Authority;
the rail transport development strategy for the period 1995-2010;
the financial restructuring strategy for the railways.

The traffic forecasts for the year 2000 are based on economic data supplied by the Statistics
Institute, UIC and the World Bank, such as:−−−

the economic recovery, with GDP growth of between 3 and 4 per cent per year since 1994;
the increasing value of private sector activity, which now stands at over 30 per cent of thetotal volume of domestic economic activity;
the increase in the volume of investment in Romania (part of which is going directly intomodernising rail infrastructure);

297

−

the increase in international trade, a direct consequence of which is growth in freight rail
traffic.

These studies indicate that freight traffic is benefiting more from the economic recovery thanpassenger traffic.

Freight traffic forecasts
Thousand tonnes
Total
99 179.0
100.0
115 000.0
18.0

1994
(% of traffic)
2000% growth (comparedwith 1994)

International
19 868.0
20.0
24 000.0
21.0

Transit
872.0
1.0
1 100.0
24.0

Passenger traffic forecasts
Thousand passengers
Total
206 920.0
211 000.0
1.8

1994
2000
% growth (compared with 1994)

International
1 212.0
1 250.0
2.5

Estimates for distances covered are also up, with approximately 20 per cent growth between now
and the year 2000 for goods and 1.8 per cent for total passengers (in number of passengers and inpassenger-km).
For international traffic, on the other hand, passenger-km are expected to increase more thannumber of passengers.

Distance travelled by freight
Tonne-km

1994
2000

Total distance
21 74625 600International traffic
5 321
6 500

298

Transit traffic
457
570

Distance travelled by passengers
Passenger-km

1994
2000

Total distance
18 31318 650International traffic
316
330

Combined transport traffic
Rolling motorway traffic (RoLa) and swap body flows have risen steeply since 1992. However,
the traffic volumes indicated below are still very low compared with European volumes for this typeof traffic. The development of container traffic is more complicated: volumes carried were down
40 per cent in 1993 from 1992 but rose 20 per cent in 1994. Traffic forecasts indicate that this trend
will continue: up 60 per cent in the year 2000.

Current and forecast traffic
1992
Lorries loaded on wagons:- number of lorries- thousand tonnes
Swap bodies:- number of units- thousand tonnes
Large containers:- number of units- thousand tonnes

1993

1994

2000

1 945
73.91

4 515
171.00

7 200
275.00

28
440

123
1 321

1 910
17 0188 500
85 400141 500
1 701

101 000
1 213

118 000
1 425

190 000
2 300

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects

Road infrastructure
The total length of the public road network is 153 358 km, of which:−−−−

9.6 per cent national roads (14 683 km);17.9 per cent departmental roads (27 423 km);20.2 per cent communal roads (31 054 km);52.3 per cent urban roads (80 198 km).

The national roads form the country’s main network and carry 62 per cent of total road traffic.
Most of these roads have two carriageways, i.e. they are bi-directional, and their (reported) traffic
capacity is about 7 500 vehicles/day.

299

National road upgrading projects
Current plans for developing transport infrastructure in Romania are part of a strategy fordeveloping and upgrading transport systems as well as infrastructure. The goal is to achieve technicaland economic standards comparable to those of western Europe.
The priority upgrading projects for the period 1994-97 concern 1 053 km on the following
national roads:−−−

E81 and E60, 450 km between Pitesti and Bors;
E68, E70 and E71, 360 km between Sebes-Nadlac and Arad-Moravita;
E60, E87 and DN38, 250 km between Bucharest-Giurgiulesti, Comarnic-Brasov andConstanta-Agigea (Bulgarian border).

In a second phase, scheduled for 1997-2001, it is planned to upgrade 1 004 km of roads. Louis
Berger SARL-France and SPEA-Italy were commissioned to produce the feasibility studies for theseprojects:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

DN6, 78 km between Bucharest and Alexandria;
DN2, 89 km between Urziceni and Râmnicu Sarat;
DN65 + DN65B, 117 km between Craiova, Slatina and Pitesti;
DN1, 23 km between Câmpina and Comarnic;
DN28, 69 km between Sabaoni and Iasi;
DN24, 20 km between Iasi and Sculeni;
DN2, 58 km between Râmnicu Sarat and Tisita;
DN2B, 12 km between Galati and Giurgiulesti;
DN52, 44 km between Alexandria and Turnu Magurele;
DN13, 160 km between Brasov and Târgu Mures;
DN15, 66 km between Turda and Târgu Mures;
DN1F, 111 km between Cluj and Supuru de Jos;
DN19A, 48 km between Supuru de Jos and Statu Mare;
DN19 + DN1C, 33 km between Satu Mare, Livada and Halmeu ;DN66, 76 km between Simeria and Petrosani.

Motorway programmes
It is planned to upgrade the Bucharest-Pitesti motorway and introduce tolls and to build othermotorways.

300

Motorway construction programmeMillion dollars
Phase I
N°

Route

1
2
3
4
5

Bucharest-Brasov
Bucharest South Ring road
Bucharest-Pitesti
Pitesti- Sibiu
Brasov-Tg.mures-ClujOradea-Bors
Bucharest-Buzau-BacauSuceava-Siret
Roman-Iasi-UngheniFoscani-Albita
Bucharest-CraiovaDrobeta-Lugoj
Sibiu-Deva
Bucharest-Giurgiu
Bucharest-Constanta
Deva-Lugoj-Nadlac
Brasov-Sibiu
Cluj-Bej-Bistrita-SuceavaBotosani-Stefanesti
Deva-Arad-Nadlac
Timisoara-Moravita
Total

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Phase II

Length
(km)
58
96
-

Estimated cost

Phase III

637
97
-

Length
(km)
168
147
-

Estimated
cost
1 150
1 435
-

Length(km)
688

Estimated
cost
3 100

-

-

-

-

463

1 620

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

95
161
468

470
725
2350

43
201
-

150
750
242

196
140
380

1 340
630
2 000

115
-

903
-

398

1 634

189.6
1 220.6

1 450
8 005

60
2 050

250
9 418

Because the feasibility studies have yet to be carried out, estimates for the third phase are notavailable. The modernisation of a number of border crossings (Bors, Nadlac, Varsand, Albita, Siret,
Halmeu, Petea) is also planned.
The long-term aims of the Romanian infrastructure development plan are to improve road signs
on 5 000 km of national roads and to undertake the phased construction of 3 000 km of motorways
and 2 560 km of express roads and the construction of bridges and tunnels at the main rail/roadintersections.
Rail infrastructures
The current rail network includes 26 per cent double-track line and 34 per cent electrified line.
There are eight main railway lines in Romania:
1. Bucharest-Craiova-Timisoara-Arad-Curtici;
2. Brasov-Sibiu-Vintu de Jos-Deva-Arad;
3. Bucharest-Brasov-Cluj-Oradea-Episcopia Bihor;
4. Brasov-Deda-Statu Mare-Baia Mare;
5. Bucharest-Marasesti-Suceava-Vicsani;
6. Marasesti-Tecuci-Iasi-Cristesti Jijia;
7. Bucharest-Urziceni-Galati;
8. Bucharest-Constanta-Mangalia.
301

Specifications of the Romanian Railways’ eight main lines
Line N°% double track% stations computerised% automatic block signalling
Top speed (km/h)

1
48.3
100
100
120

2
58.2
97
81
100

3
89.8
90.6
92.2
120
100

4
11
73
32
100

5
92
92
93.8
120
100

6
44
79.3
62.5
100

7
47.2
79.4
61.6
120
100

8
87.3
89.7
89.2
140
120

In order of priority, the main railway projects are:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

completion of work on line CF Rm, Valcea-Valcele, cost $73.98 million;
modernisation and development of communication systems, cost $4.89 million;
modernisation of Giurgiu North and Curtici border stations, cost $3.2 million (scheduled for
1996-97);
completion of electrification and construction of a second track on the Cluj-Oradea line, total
cost $225 million (scheduled for 2000-2005);
modernisation of high speed sections (160 km/h) planned on the Curtici-Deva-BrasovBucharest-Constanta and Bucharest-Giurgiu lines, total cost $826.86 million;laying of a second track and electrification on the Constanta-Mangalia line, cost $74.3 million(scheduled for 1999-2001);
construction of a new line between Albeni-Seciuri-Alunu, cost $117.87 million;
electrification of the Bucharest-Pitesti-Bradu-Rafinarie line, cost $36.3 million;
repair and strengthening of the protection at Portile de Fier I, cost $59.3 million;
upgrading track on the Ungheni-Pascani-Bacau-Ploiesti-Bucharest-Giurgiu line to take highspeed trains (top speed 160 km/h on some sections), total cost $636 million;
construction of railway links with Baneasa-Otopeni airport, cost $300 million;
modernisation and development of Halmeu border station, total cost $70 million;laying of a triple track on the Bucharest-Ploiesti line, cost $126 million.

Question 3: Capacity problems

Road transport
The 1995 traffic survey indicates that the capacity of Romanian roads (7 500 vehicles a day) is
being exceeded. The daily average on around 15 sections is as high as 10 710. However, this is well
below the levels of road use and congestion in Europe. It would seem from the figures below that thecongestion problems mentioned by Romania need to be kept in proportion.
According to the Romanian authorities, roads in and out of some towns are somewhat busier:
Ploiesti with a daily average of 14 903 vehicles, Brasov with 8 936 and Sibiu 9 725. The overall daily(24 hour) average is 11 188 vehicles.

302

Traffic survey results -- maximum number of vehicles per day

Sections of national roads

No. of vehicles per day

Ploiesti-Brasov
Bucharest-Urziceni
Ploiesti-Buzau
Bucharest-Giurgiu
Craiova-Pitesti
Brasov-SF. Gheorghe
Sebes-Deva
Urziceni-Marasesti
Lugoj-Timisoara
Bucharest-Alexandria
Oradea-Chisineu Cris
Sibiu- Cluj
Bucharest-Lehliu
RM. Valcea-Sibiu
Bucharest-Pitesti (RN7)
Cluj-Halmeu
Timisoara-Arad
Arad-Chisineu Cris
Pitesti-Campulung
Craiova-Calafat

15 17415 357
12 91413 567
11 84511 10417 705
10 94211 36910 062
5 632
8 312
6 019
9 123
9 995
9 010
8 512
8 129
7 916
7 804

A 1994 study revealed a considerable rise in waiting times at border crossings.

Rail transport
The main bottlenecks are on the following routes:– Bucharest-Craiova-Timisoara: The modernisation of this main line will enable it to carry bidirectional traffic on the 517 km of track, as there is still a section of single track between
Strehaia, Turnu-Severin and Orsova (223 km of single track on the Craiova-Timisoara section).
This limits the daily carrying capacity of this line to 72 trains (36 in each direction).
– Bucharest-Brasov-Cluj-Oradea-Episcopa Bihor: The line has a total of 613 km, of which a sectionof 66 km between Cluj and Oradea is single track. The daily carrying capacity is 64 trains (32 ineach direction).
The Bucharest-Ploiesti double track section, which was closed for a long time for maintenancework, suffers from congestion and delays. In theory, it has a capacity of 256 trains (128 in eachdirection) a day, but is currently only able to take 200 trains (100 in each direction).
There are 216 daily train arrivals and departures at Bucharest-North station, the busiest in termsof passenger traffic. The tracks need to be modernised and increased.

303

As regards freight, Halmeu station on the Ukrainian border has experienced a traffic overload. It
is the only transhipment station for cargoes of Polish, Slovak and Russian coal and this traffic is set torise by 7.9 million tonnes a year over the next few years. The construction of a new transhipment
facility with new track needs to be planned.
Traffic flows at Giurgiu-North and Curtici stations, at the Bulgarian and Hungarian borders,
respectively, are not very good due to lack of modernisation.

Question 4: Measures
Romania does not mention any specific measures. The focus currently seems to be on planning
new road and rail projects using specialist European consultancies (French, Italian, etc.).

304

SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Area: 48 997 km²
Population: 5 300 000

The creation of the Slovak Republic led to radical changes in both the Slovak economy and thetransport network. However, the changes are not attributable solely to the current economictransition; they are also part of the process of European integration.
Resolving traffic problems is one of the priorities of national transport policy. The Slovak
Ministry of Transport issued a report entitled “The Conception of Transport Development”, which
was based on an analysis of demand in the current economic context. Approved by the Slovak
government on 16 March 1993, this report, and the objectives it sets out for the development of thetransport sector, have now become the basic policy document for the Slovak government. In order toexpand, the national economy and the transport sector must adapt to the new conditions created by theestablishment of the common market and European integration.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Rail transport
Passenger traffic
Since the mid-1980s, passenger traffic has steadily declined each year, resulting in a total
decrease of around 35 per cent. This trend is directly attributable to the recent political and economicchanges in the Slovak Republic.

Million passengers

1990
117.1

1991
108.4

1992
103.0

1993
87.03

1994
99.1

1995
89.5

According to economic statistics based on GDP and other macro-economic indicators, theeconomy of the Slovak Republic and traffic volumes have picked up slightly since 1995. Short-term
forecasts for the year 2000 and the outlook for 2010 are based on:− past passenger traffic trends;− growth and composition of the population;305

− forecast improvements in standards of living (in terms of inflation, unemployment and per
capita GNP);− urban development;− traffic performance;− the development of new regional employment opportunities.
Over the past few years, the rail sector has undergone major changes in terms of both operating
structure and type of traffic carried:− From 1990, a decline was noted in the number of passengers travelling at standard andreduced “worker” fares, attributable to rising unemployment nation-wide;− Since 1994, international transport as well as cross-border traffic with the Czech Republic has
been increasing:
•

•

•

•

By late 1995, a number of trends of significance for the future of rail transport began toemerge: a modest increase in the population, an increase in the number of private vehicles
and a slight improvement in the standard of living as the mobility of the population
increased.
However, in order to bring about a real improvement in the quality of service provided by
the railways, the present rolling stock needs to be upgraded. Demand for rail passenger
transport is primarily influenced by the tariff policies of the different modes of public
transport modes and by fluctuations in consumer prices, particularly fuel prices. Plannedchanges to the reduced fare system under the Slovak railway company’s new commercial
policy should also have a marked influence on the demand for passenger transport by rail.
The forecasts obtained for the year 2000 assume modest economic growth over the period
1996-98, higher car ownership levels and an increased number of transport links between
border regions. The quality of railway services is also expected to improve: better
cleanliness, more catering facilities on board trains and in stations, and better timetableco-ordination to take connection times into account. However, it is unlikely that moretrains or more connecting services will be provided.
The forecasts for 2010 assume moderate demographic growth (the population is actually
expected to decline after 2010) and more attractive railway services. The following tables
give the traffic forecasts for the years 2000 and 2010, each based on two scenarios,
optimistic and pessimistic (O/P).
Traffic forecasts for selected passenger transport services
Millions passengers
1994

Type of journey
NormalWorker reduction
Child reduction
Other
International
Total

28.5
29.0
24.02
14.68
2.9
99.1

1995
28.4
28.8
19.6
19.0
2.8
98.5

2000
O
32.5
27.5
20.5
23.4
4.3
108.3

306

2010
P
29.4
24.6
18.6
21.2
3.9
97.7

O
35.4
27.2
20.8
23.2
5.1
112.0

P
30.2
23.4
18.2
19.8
4.3
96.0

Traffic forecasts for selected passenger transport services
Billion passenger kilometres

Type of journey
NormalWorker reduction
Child reduction
Other
International
Total

1994

1995

1.52
0.63
0.93
0.82
0.65
4.548

1.532
0.633
0.431
1.331
0.610
4.536

2000
O
1.794
0.599
0.451
1.641
0.961
5.446

P
1.623
0.542
0.408
1.484
0.870
4.927

2010
O
1.985
0.604
0.470
1.738
1.139
5.936

P
1.693
0.515
0.401
1.483
0.972
5.065

Freight traffic
Since 1989, the operation of the transport market has been strongly marked by the political andeconomic changes that have taken place in the Slovak Republic. Regardless of mode, these changes
have invariably resulted in a decline, to varying degrees, in traffic volumes. However, the steadydecline in the volume of freight carried by rail cannot be attributed solely to the economic recession:
unfair competition from the road sector is also partly to blame. In fact, unlike the road transport
sector, the railways have to pay for their own infrastructure and therefore have to recover costs
through the fares charged. It is important to bear this in mind when it comes to creating a levelplaying field for both modes.
The indicators used in all the relevant studies show a decline in traffic over the period of
observation.
− Overall import flows declined by 23.4 per cent. Some categories of freight experienced aparticularly sharp decline in traffic: categories 1, 6 and 9 (oil products, cereals and spareparts, respectively) were the hardest hit. This decline was not offset by other categories, since
only categories 5 and 7 (timber and “roots”) showed any substantial increase in the volume oftraffic carried by rail. In real terms, however, the volumes involved are very small.
− At only 6.8 per cent, the decline in export flows was less marked than in import flows. The
freight categories most affected were: oil products, industrial raw materials and spare parts(categories 1, 3 and 9, respectively). But this fall was more or less offset by an increase in
categories 0, 6 and 7 (solid fuels, cereals and “roots”, respectively) and, principally, incategories 2 and 4 (i.e. construction plant and materials).
− The flows most affected by the recession were through-traffic flows which were down by
61 per cent, particularly in the construction materials, “roots” and spare parts categories.
The single most worrying development has been that the freight categories which havetraditionally been heavily reliant on rail transport experienced even larger decreases in volume thanthose reported for the above three categories (whose volumes are always lower by comparison). For
instance, movements of solid fuels, cereals and other goods (categories 0, 2, 8) declined by 36.7 per
cent, 73.8 per cent and 73.1 per cent, respectively, i.e. a total decrease in rail freight traffic of
2 million tonnes.
307

The sharp decline in rail flows reported in 1993 was in large part due to the deterioration of traderelations between the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic, on the one hand, and between the
Czech Republic and Hungary and other countries of south-eastern Europe, on the other. In fact, it
was these trade relations which had originally generated transit traffic through the Slovak Republic.
Methods and projections
As a result of the many political and economic changes that have taken place, the old methods ofcalculating projections from time series analyses seemed inappropriate. For this reason, the findingsof previous studies were revised in the course of work commissioned by the government. This
research concentrated on the current expansion of the economy, the reform process, the clarificationof different approaches to economic restructuring, and the broad transport policy principles to be
adopted by the government.
For the above reasons, two methodological approaches were used to develop traffic projections:– The first consisted in an evaluation by experts of the reliability of the statistics available andthe soundness of the analytical methods used in forecasts. The aim was also to assess therelevance of the parameters used to compute freight traffic projections and to forecast the
future growth of rail transport in the overall transport market.
– The second used formal projection models for each type of traffic and each category of
freight carried by geographical area. Totals were calculated on a case-by-case basis to ensure
greater accuracy.
The following assumptions were made with regard to freight flow trends by product category:− Following the economic recovery, the transport of solid fuels should show moderate growth
but should fall again from 2005 onwards as a result of the steady rationalisation of fuelconsumption.
− Flows of crude oil, tar and derivative products should increase gradually for two reasons:first because these products should increasingly replace solid fuels; and second because ofrising car ownership levels.
− There should be only a very moderate increase in flows of minerals, metallurgical products
and machinery, which should ultimately decrease as metals consumption was rationalised.
− Following the economic recovery, flows of industrial raw materials should rise to 80 per centof the 1989 level.
− Similarly, flows of construction materials should increase slightly to around 40 per cent of the
1989 level. The tonnage of timber carried by rail should decline steadily: first, because it
should become an increasingly “precious” natural raw material (ecological concerns, felling
restrictions); and second because there should be stiffer competition from the road mode fortimber haulage.
− Population growth and improved living standards should lead to a rise in cereal, foodproducts, livestock and “root” flows.
− Other freight flows should increase to around 80 per cent of their 1989 level.
− Flows of spare parts should increase in real terms to support national commercial expansion,
but the volumes involved should be too small to have an impact on total freight traffic.

308

Projection model, minimum scenario
Million tonnes

1993
1994
1995
2000
2005
2010

Total transport
104.5
88.83
94.48
100.7
107.3
112.7

Scenario A
RailFreight
64.83
36.62
58.9
30.2
60.8
32.2
65.9
44.4
67.9
46.3
68.8
47.4

Scenario B
RailFreight

61.6
63.8
64.9

41.6
43.7
44.7

Scenario A: Rail’s share increases slightly, transport does not fall below 40 per cent.
Scenario B: Rail’s share decreases steadily to 30 per cent by the year 2010.

Projection model, minimum scenario
Million tonnes

1993
1994
1995
2000
2005
2010

Total transport
104.5
88.83
94.48
107.7
120.4
125.4

Scenario A
RailFreight
64.83
36.62
58.9
30.2
60.8
32.2
76.6
38.5
85.3
43.7
86.1
43.8

Traffic in million t-km

2000

ExportDomestic
ImportTrough traffic
Total

2.5
3.7
2.8
4.0
13.0

309

Scenario B
RailFreight

71.6
80.9
81.6

2010
O
2.7
4.1
2.7
4.1
13.6

P
2.6
3.8
2.5
3.8
12.7

36.1
41.4
41.5

Projections for through rail traffic for the years 2000 and 2010
Country of origin

Destination country

2000

2010

Bulgaria

Scandinavia
PolandOther
Total
Germany
Other
Total
Scandinavia
PolandOther
Total
Germany
Other
Total
Scandinavia
PolandOther
Total
Germany
Other
Total

1.5
10.0
2.0
13.5
10.0
7.0
17.0
180.0
198.0
20.0
398.0
133.0
594.0
727.0
10.0
27.0
10.0
47.0
40.0
28.0
68.0
812.0
458.5
5.0
10.5
55.0
70.5
19.0
168.0
18.0
205.0
11.0
190.5
30.5
172.5
404.5
691.0
42.0
64.0
10.5
5.5
30.5
843.5

2.0
11.5
3.0
16.5
14.5
8.5
23.0
190.5
227.0
22.0
439.5
151.5
655.0
806.5
10.5
31.0
12.0
53.5
42.0
30.5
72.5
902.0
509.5
6.0
12.0
70.0
88.0
21.5
191.5
20.5
133.5
12.5
196.5
34.5
196.5
440.0
655.0
45.5
60.0
13.0
7.0
35.0
815.5

Bulgaria

Hungary

Hungary

Romania
Romania
Romania

Total south-west
Total south-north
Austria

Austria
Germany
Other
Total west
Germany

CIS

Scandinavia
Poland
Other
Total
CIS
CIS
CIS
CIS + east
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
Other
Total
Austria
Germany
Hungary
France
Italy
Other
Total
310

Road transport
Two methods were used to make road transport projections:− determining road transport growth factors, based on the projected annual number of vehicles
and a regression analysis of parameters such as:• population growth;• increase in car ownership;• increase in the number of kilometres travelled annually by cars.
− analysing trends in people’s mobility in the Slovak Republic and in neighbouring countries.
The analysis indicates a moderate increase in road transport to the year 2000. In fact,
forecasts indicating mild stagnation in the economy and in purchasing power to the end of the
century should have an impact on the rate of vehicle acquisition.
Once the period of stagnation is over, traffic should pick up again.
Over the past few years, high fuel prices have kept the average annual number of kilometrestravelled relatively low. Currently, most private vehicles travel between 6 000 and 8 000 kilometres ayear. However, to determine the outlook for growth in the road mode, the gradual increase in thenumber of kilometres per year travelled in the countries of Europe as a whole was taken into account.
The use of heavy goods vehicles and buses is the same as in western Europe. It would therefore
be unrealistic to predict any real increase in their use (particularly as regards buses). Current market
trends suggest that the present modal split between road and rail transport (currently 30/70 per cent)might be reversed in favour of road transport. A gradual shift of some rail traffic to road mode istherefore expected and consequently a modal split that is more and more akin to that of European
Union member states, i.e. 60 per cent road/40 per cent train. The results obtained using the above
criteria and monitoring of current flows are shown in the table below.

Indicator
No. of inhabitants
No. of vehicles
Car ownership level
All vehicles
Vehicle ownership level1994
5 354 500
994 046
5.39
1 382 863
3.87

2000
5 499 000
1 158 700
4.75
1 545 520
3.55

2010
5 681 100
1 583 500
3.59
1 965 480
2.89

The scenarios relating to the future outlook for road transport take into account the statistical
data on other central European countries.
Average vehicle ownership level in central European countries
Indicator
Cars/1 000 inhabitants
HGV and bus/1 000 inhabitants
Total vehicles/1 000 inhabitants

1994
185.6
27.6
213.2
311

Minimum 2010
210.0
27.6
237.6

Maximum 2010
350
39
389

Passenger traffic flow projections
Indicator
No. of inhabitants
Cars/1 000 inhabitants
Car ownership levelNo. of cars
Current year

1994
5 354 500
185.6
5.39
994 046
8 200

2000
5 499 000
210.7
4.75
1 158 700
11 0002010
5 681 100
278.7
3.58
1 583 500
13 000Freight traffic flow projections
Indicator
No. of inhabitants
HGVs /1 000 inhabitants
Heavy vehicle ownership levelNo. of HGVs and buses
Current year

1994
5 354 500
27.6
36.2
147 988
22 1002000
5 499 000
27.6
36.2
151 720
22 5002010
5 681 100
39.0
35.8
158 700
23 000International traffic flows through the Slovak Republic are given in the tables below. The
analysis of these statistics shows a substantial increase in international traffic, particularly at theRusovce, Berg and Jarovce border-crossing points, with steadily increasing flows between Hungary
and Austria.

Average number of vehicles per day
Austria
Cars
HGVs
Buses

1990
8 230
126
162

1995
12 681
370
153

312

Growth rate
1.54
2.94
-1.06

Traffic at borders with the Slovak Republic in 1995
Czech Republic
Kuty-Breclav
Brodské-Lanzhot
Holic-Hodonin
Skalica-Sudomérice
MyJava-Vel'ka nad \/elickou
Moravské Lieskové-Strani
Driemota-Stary Hrozenkov
Horné Srnie-Bylnice
ÉV~a nod MAkYLOL'Strelna
Makov-Horni Becva
Svrcinovec-Mosty u
Jablunkova
Nova Bosaca-Brezova
Klokocov-Bila
Podzavoz-Sance
Cerveny Kamen-Nedasova
Lhota
Total

Cars
1 856 986
243 726
1 260 470
1 449 334
157 649521 545648 056
560 860
307 658

Buses
24 4885 833
26 621
1 229
5 812
18 94923 05315 447
1 006

HGVs
250 734
33 744171 02978 60418 40347 183
118 866
27 17962 882Total
2 132 208
283 303
1 458 120458 992
181 864587 677789 975
603 486
371 546762 601
1 083801

11 17243 547

134 568
118 261

1 136 943
1 245 609

92 377268 139
99 11861 52330
10 6330
17

17 48414 428
0663

109 891
293 200
99 11862 2038 532 268

187 837

1 094 028

9 814 135

Austria
Jarovce-Kitsse
Bratislava-Berg
Moravsky sv. Jan-Hohenau
Total

Cars
913 445
3 561 767
153 2314 628 443

Buses
1 044
54 62757
55 728

PolandSkalité-Zwardon
Oravska Polhora-Korbielow
Prstena -CHyzné
Sucha Hora-CHocholow
Javorina-Lysa Pol'ana
Podspady-Jurgow
Lysa nad DunaJcomNiedzica
Mnisek nad PopradomPiwniczna
Becherov-Konieczna
Jysny Komarnik-Barwinek
Total

Cars
255 976
119 873707 142
162 724
589 7193 582
208 934

Buses
1 773
561
28 413
4 872
7 027
0
2 344

HGVs
3 295
907
68 365
0
2 878
0
0

Total
261 044
121 331803 920167 596
599 6243 582
211 278

147 5126 925

0154 537

105 164
520 975
2 821 700

508
16 601
69 024041 669117 104

105 672579 245
3 007 829

313

HGVs
0
132 3612 786
135 147

Total
914 494
3 748 755
156 074
4 819 323

Ukraine
Vysné Nemecké-Uzhorod
Ubl'a-M. Bereznyj
Total

Cars
603 863
94 896
698 759

Hungary
Slovenské Nové MestoSatoraljaujhely
Host'ovce-Tornanadaska
Domica-Agtelek
KraI-Banreve
Siatorska Bukovinka-Salgotarian
Slovenské Darmoty-Balassagyarmat
Sahy-Parassapuszta
Salka-Letkés
Sturovo-Prievoz-Esztergom
Komarno-Komarom
Medved'ov-Vamossabadi
Rusovce-Rajka
Total

Buses
31 388130
31 518

HGVs
57 253315
57 568Total
692 504
95 341787 845Cars
281 060

Buses
5 790

HGVs
10 422Total
297 272

27 17214 286300 250407 806
248 016475 61686 65974 951
1 472 229
668 906
1 695 977
6 019 814

461
430
3 079
4 960
2 973
20 193453
46
15 5702 988
24 00297 0540
0
23 64322 80828 47455 61700
53 140160 515146 646561 085

27 63314 716326 972435 574
279 463551 426
87 11274 997
1 540 939
832 409
1 866 625
7 780 120

Projected daily transit-traffic flows through border crossing points
Austria
Cars
HGVs
Buses
Hungary
Cars
HGVs
Buses

1995
12 681
370
153

2000-1019 500750
200

Growth rate
1.54
2.03
1.31

16 493
1 537
266

19 132
1 860
375

1.16
1.21
1.41

These tables show the figures for overall vehicle flows in 1995 at border crossing points between
the Slovak Republic and neighbouring countries. On the border with the Czech Republic, there are
five road crossing points, three on the border with Austria, 11 on the border with Hungary, two on theborder with the Ukraine and ten on the border with Poland.

314

Question 2. Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment
Railway infrastructure
Current state of infrastructure
The Slovak railways currently possess:− a total of 3 661 km of track, of which 1 011 km of mixed gauge track, 52 km of narrow gauge
track and 102 km of wide gauge track;− only 8.4 per cent of the network (by length) can be travelled at a speed of 100 km/h. The
length of non-electrified track is 1 422 km, or 39.3 per cent of the network, with a 25kV/50Hz
a.c. traction supply over a length of 707 km and a 3kV d.c. supply over a length of 735 km.

The network and its installations
Automatic blocks (UAB)
Semi-automatic block relay
Level crossings
A-grade level crossings with barriers
Operating Control Point (OCP)
Mean distance between OCPs
Stations
Signal points
Buildings

580 km
1 057 km
2 562
1 153
555
6.6 km256
10 149
6 084

The Slovak railway system was largely built in the late 19th and early 20th century. It is madeup of local lines with some international lines, running east/west and north/south. It has been divided
into four categories of track ranked by tonnage and capacity.
Under the AGC and AGTC agreements, the following lines are now part of the main European
railway line network:−−−−

C-E 61: Kuty-Bratislava-Komarno (the country’s second main line);
C-E 40: Cadca-Zilina-Kosice-Cierna nad Tisou (the country’s first main railway line);
C-E 63: Bratislava-Puchov-Zilina (line connecting the first and second main railway lines);
C-E 52: Devinska Nova Ves-Bratislava-Nové Zamky-Sturovo.

The “southern” line connecting Kuty-Trnava-Leopoldov-Zvolen-Kosice is somewhat unusual.
The most efficient line is the Bratislava-Kosice line via Zilina, as it is a reversible, electrified linewith automatic blocks.
Investment projects
A number of projects aimed at enabling Slovak railways to play a greater role in internationalrail transport in Europe are currently under way. They include:315

− Construction of a second line to Bratislava and a freight depot at Petrzalka. The main objectives
for this project are to:− renew the Petrzalka-Kittsee-Parndorf connection at the Austrian border;− speed up traffic between Vienna and Bratislava;− enable the re-routing by rail of HGVs from the Devinska Nova Ves-Marchegg border crossing
point;− to construct a second track along the Bratislava-Petrzalka section and a freight terminal in
Bratislava, to rebuild the station at Petrzalka and to add a new reception building.
The upgrading of the Petrzalka-Kittsee-Parndorf border crossing point should greatly improveconnections between Austria and the Slovak Republic and enable the opening of a fast rail link
between Poland and south-eastern Europe via Zilina, Cadca and Zwerdon.
Work is under way, the construction of the Bratislava station is complete and a start has been
made on most of the substructure and superstructure work between Bratislava and Petrzalka. The
project was approved by the ZSR on 15 July 1994. The contract was let to Doprastav.

Capital investment and state of progress
Cost of works
SK 800.1 20.73
million
MECU

State of progress Start of works
Under
06/1995-12/1997
construction

Ownership
Resolved-

Modernisation of the second track on the Kuty-Bratislava-Sturovo line, Nové Zamky-Komarno.
The railway line running from the north to the west and from the south to the east of Europe ispart of the international network classified E-61 and E-25. It connects Berlin to Prague,
Bratislava and Budapest. It is also the fastest line, with sections allowing speeds of up to
140 km/h. In order to respond to European demand, and given the financial possibilities, thisline will be upgraded to allow trains to be operated at speeds of 160 km/h.

-

The work to modernise the line will be undertaken in two phases. Currently, most of the workrequired in the plans for renewal is related to increasing track speed to 160 km/h on sections
where the track is straightest and needs a minimum of work. In order to speed up themodernisation of rail structures, alterations on the Bratislava tunnel must be completed.
Upgrading work on stations and halts has already been completed. However, due to the very
high capital costs, speeds on the section from Bratislava’s main station to Dev-Nova Ves will
only be increased to 120 km/h.

316

Capital investment and state of progress
Cost
SK 9 000
million

234.2
MECU

State ofprogressState of work

Ownership

Planning
stage

1996-2010

Resolved− The Cadca-Skalité-Zwardon rail line. The renewal of this line and the Cadca station will enablehigher commercial train speeds on connections to the PKP and OBB networks. The connection
from the north of the Slovak Republic to Poland will be substantially improved. The conditions
for long-distance transport will be improved in order to reduce journey time between Cracow,
Bratislava, Vienna and Budapest. The project also aims to increase maximum train speeds to
100 km/h (instead of 70 km/h at present) on the Skalité-Zwardon section. This will be quitedifficult given the subsurface geology of this region.

Capital investment and state of progress
Cost
SK 971.7
million25.2 MECU

State ofprogress
Under
construction

Start of work

Ownership

08/1995-1998

Resolved

Plans for initial alterations to Cadca station, the first phase of the project, were produced inAugust 1995 and are to be approved in December 1996 at a cost of SK 142.2 million.
According to ZSR, plans for the second phase of alterations, the second stage of the project, will
be approved in December 1996 at a cost of SK 142.2 million. Track construction work
scheduled for the period 1996/1997 (SK 309.5 million) is still at the planning stage.
The schedule for the electrification of the Cadca-Zwardon line has been drafted. Work is tobegin over the period 1996-98 and will require a total budget of SK 620 million, to be financedby the government.
The technical details for this project were approved by the Ministry of the Environment (MZP)
in June 1996. The project and its completion are therefore guaranteed under Act No. 263/93 of theCode.
− Upgrading the Presov-Plavec line. There are two projects: circuitry and electrification. These
two projects are the first step in increasing the capacity of the main north-south line in the easternpart of the country.
− Work to incorporate the Muszyna (PKP)-Plavec-Kysak-Cana-Hidesnémeti (MAV) section into the
AGTC network (electrification of the Presov-Plavec and Cana-Hidesnémeti sections). These
projects should:•

increase the fluidity of traffic on this line;
317

•
•
•

dispense with the need to change locomotives at Plavec and Presov;
save on fuel;lessen environmental impacts.

The contract has been approved, a construction permit has been obtained and ownershipissues have been resolved.

Capital investment and state of progress
Cost
SK 478.4
million

12.4 MECU

State ofprogress
Under
construction

Start of work

Ownership

07/1995-07/ 1996

Resolved− The second project relates to ZSR lines from Cana to the Hungarian border. The invitation totender was issued in 1995. All that now remains is to prepare the project documentation. To
complete the construction programme (scheduled for a few years’ time), the release of
SK 34.9 million (in equity capital) will be timed to match the main investment schedule. During
the first stage, the project monitoring stage, it is planned to allocate 41.3 per cent of the annual
programme budget, i.e. SK 14.4 million. The work will cost SK 18.6 million, i.e. 53.3 per cent of
the annual budget.
− Modernisation of the Bratislava-Puchov-Zilina line. This line is part of international line E-63.
Following the latest round of negotiations, train speeds will be increased from 140 to 160 km/h on
the Bratislava-Puchov section and from 100 to 120 km/h on the Puchov-Zilina section. The
project documentation is ready, but has not yet been approved.
Capital investment and state of progress
Cost of work
SK 5 500
million

142.5
MECU

State ofprogress
Planning
stage

Start of work

Ownership

1996-2000

Resolved

In addition to these projects, which are designed to increase through traffic, other investment
projects are planned, such as:
−
−
−
−
−
−

cabling of the line between Krivan and Fil’akovo;
electrification of the line between Zvolen-Banska Bystrica;a junction at Bratislava;
rebuilding of the Mat’ovce-Hanisk pri Kosiciach line broad gauge track;electrification of the Zvolen-Fil’akovo line;
upgrading of the single gauge line between Ziar nad Hronom and HronsLà Dubrava to amixed gauge line;− modernisation of the Cierna and Tisou transhipment stations.
318

There are also projects to improve information systems (JSPD, IRIS, etc.).
In the course of negotiations in July 1995, the Slovak government gave the go-ahead for two
projects: “The Programme of Transformation and Development of Railway Transport up to 2000”
and “The Long-term Programme of Railway Route Development”. The latter contains practicalmeasures for the modernisation of transit corridors IV, V and VI.
After the start of the work on the Petrzalka-Kittsee line in 1995 and on the Cadca-Zwardon line
in 1996, plans to modernise ZSR lines that were part of the TEN scheme were accorded priority
project status at the Pan-European Conference in Crete in 1994. The trans-European corridors run
through the following towns:− Corridor IV-north-west Europe: from the Czech Republic via Kuty, Bratislava to the Balkans
via Hungary;− Corridor V-south and south-east Europe: from Hungary through Sturovo, Bratislava, Zilina,
Cierna n. Tisou to the Ukraine;− Corridor VI: from the Baltic through Zwerdon, Cadca and Zilina.
These three corridors are very important for different reasons:− they affect domestic rail traffic in the Slovak Republic;− they concern states with direct access to the sea and provide rapid links to ports on the
Adriatic and the Baltic;− they are indispensable for any country seeking rapid rail links to the CIS and the Ukraine.
In order to make these corridors a reality in the Slovak Republic, it will be necessary to comply
with AGC standards. Therefore, if it is to integrate its rail network with European networks, theSlovak Republic will have to accept the conditions set in the AGC agreements.

Road infrastructure
Of the total Slovak road network, 1 597 km come under the TEN scheme.

The Slovak road network
Category
I
II
III
Total

Length in km
3 074
3 820
10 84317 737The Slovak Republic has 263.6 km of four-lane roads, i.e. 26.6 km more than in 1993. Of the
650 km of motorway planned, 197.9 km have already been built and 36.7 km are now underconstruction. The basis for the development of the road network is still the government’s resolution
on transport infrastructure development.
319

The following is a list of the main infrastructure investment projects to the year 2000. These
projects will go ahead as and when financial resources allow, the objective being to improve roadsafety and transport conditions.
Major projects and start dates
1995-2000
1. E71-1/50 Kosice
2. E75-1/11 Cadca by-pass
3. E77-I/59 Oravsky Podzamok-H. Lehota, Podbiel bypass
4. E371-I/73 Nova Polianka-Svibnik bypass
5. E571-I/50 Zvolen-Sekier-Tornal’a-Kosice
6. E571-I/50 Zaroovica and Nova Bana bypass
The above list of road projects scheduled for the period 1995-2000 is very different from the one
previously established. Current infrastructure policy appears to place more emphasis on thedevelopment of the motorway network than in the past, as can be seen from the number of motorway
construction projects listed below.
List of motorway network projects
1996-1998
D1 Chochina-Nemsova
D1 Hybe-Vazec
D2 Bratislava-Slovak/Hungarian border
D61 Bratislava-Slovak/Austrian border
Branisko-Fricovce
1996-1999
D1 Nemsova-Ladce
D1 Nové Mesto n. V.-Chocholna
1996-2003
D1,3 Visnové-Slovak/Polish border1997-1999
D1 Ladce-Sverepec
D1 Horna Streda-Nové Mesto n. V.
1997-2001
D1 Sverepec-Visnové
D1 Vazec-Janovce
1998-2000
D61 Bratislava Mierova-Senecka
1999-2003
D1 Visnové-Martin
320

2000-2004
D1 Janovce-Beharovce
D1 Fricovce-Presov
D1 Budimir-Slovak/Ukrainian border
2000-2005
D1 Martin-Ivachnova
D2 Bratislava Lamacska-Staré Grunty
2002-2004
D1 Slovak/Czech Republic border
2003-2005
D61 Bratislava Viedenska-Pristavoy most/Port bridge
The priority aim, as regards road infrastructure, is to build a road and motorway network that canbe integrated into the European transport network (TEN). With this end in view, the main motorway
projects are still:− construction of the Bratislava-Slovak/Hungarian border section on the D2 and the BratislavaSlovak/Austrian border section on the D61.
− construction of the Horna Streda-Zilina-Kosice (Ukraine) section on the D61/D1.
− construction of the Zilina-Cadca-Slovak/Polish border section (as part of the TEM, D18 project);
this section will shorten the route by approximately 60 km and will dispense with a number ofborder crossing points with the Czech Republic.
Motorways which pose major problems (i.e. tunnels) or which have low traffic flows will bebuilt in stages.
The modernisation of category I roads is still on the agenda and is focusing mainly on theEuropean E-road network. The following projects are as listed in the previous report:− Unrestricted access Category 1 road consisting of very few restricted access sections (i.e. bypass
roads). These 2 x 2 lane highways will be widened to 4 x 4 lanes. Some will be built as 4 x 4 lanehighways from the start, such as the E571 Trnava (D61)/Sered/Nitra/Sasovské Podhradie, which
will be linked to the existing 4 x 4 lane Sasovské Podhradie/Zvolen road.
− 2 x 2 lane express roads (with the possibility of widening to 4 x 4 lanes):••

North-south direction: Slovak/Polish border-Trstena-Martin-Zvolen (via Kremnica or Banska
Bystrica with a link to the existing Ul’anka-Zvolen 4x4 lane highway)-Sahy-Slovak/Polishborder.
East-west direction: Zvolen-Lucenec -Kosice, with a link to the D1.

321

Infrastructure for other modes of transport
Redevelopment of Bratislava and Komarno ports
Redevelopment at these ports is linked specifically to increasing flows of goods, international
trade and the integration of the Slovak Republic into European structures. The issue of landownership in the ports (the existing surface area) has been settled by a government resolution. The
investments needed to develop the ports are estimated as follows:− SK 1-2 billion for a bulk liquids freight terminal in the port of Bratislava, necessary because ofenvironmental problems. It is scheduled to be brought on line in approximately five years.
− SK 2.4 billion to complete improvements to infrastructure at the port of Bratislava. The work
should take another ten to 15 years.
According to the optimistic traffic growth scenario, it will be necessary to build port
infrastructure for industry and distribution without implementing the resolution on land ownership.
Such an investment will require some SK 4 billion. This is a long-term project.
Construction of the new (Voolfsthal) Canal from Bratislava
The canal will enable navigation of the slow-flowing sections of the river Morava. This is aninternational project. With regard to the section on Slovak territory, the problem of ownership is
virtually settled. The investment costs (approximately SK 10 billion) will depend on the agreements
reached with the countries involved. The main work should be completed five years from now.
However, it is not possible to give a completion date for the overall project until bilateral agreements
have been signed with Austria and the Czech Republic.
Improvements to the river Vah at Zilina
Total investment is estimated to amount to around SK 6 to 8 billion. Work to make the slowest
flowing sections of the Vah navigable has already started. The technical option selected to improvethe mouth of the Vah for shipping depends on the method used to construct the Nagymarros canal on
the Danube. This work will also enable a river link from Zilina via Cadca to Ostrava, thereby
providing access to the river Oder and the Baltic sea. This latter project will require funding in theregion of SK 20 billion.
Rendering the rivers in the eastern part of the country navigable and connecting the Tisza and the
DanubeOwnership problems have not yet been resolved. Their resolution will depend on international
co-operation with Hungary and on the navigability improvements on the Hungarian section of theriver Tisza. It is not possible to determine what the investment costs will be for the moment.
However a likely estimate is in the region of some tens of billions of SK.
Bratislava-Sered river link
This link is heavily dependent on the progress made on work on the Vah and on the growth ofgoods flows in this region. The new river route will improve links between the upper and central322

regions of the Vah and the upper Danube. It will also enable the western plains of the Slovak
Republic to be served by the river transport network. Costs are estimated at around SK 10 billion.
Making the various branches of the Danube and its tributaries navigable was, until now, simply
aimed at developing a variety of different activities (leisure, tourism, etc.) in the Slovak Republic.

Air transport infrastructure− Completion of work on Bratislava’s MR Stefanic airport. Henceforth, this will be the country’s
main international airport.
− Redevelopment of the Poprad-Tatry airport terminal, in order to meet tourist demand.
− Improvements to bring the runway at Kosice airport into compliance with ICAO Category II
landing standards.
− Redevelopment of Piestany airport.
− Air traffic control infrastructure plans include the installation of a new radio system, an Air
Information System and participation in joint control of Central European air space.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Rail transport
Bottlenecks persist on:− the first main line, on the Zilina-Vrutky and Kysak-Kosice sections;− the second main line, on the Kuty-Breclav section;− the southern line, on the Lucenec-Kosice and Leopoldov-Kozarovce sections.

Road transport
Road traffic density
The government roads survey, carried out every five years since 1959, is the main source of dataon vehicle movements on the Slovak road network. The overall results of the survey in 1995 showeda general increase in traffic and, consequently, in capacity problems.

Road traffic density in number of vehicles per day

1980
1985
1990
1995

Express
4 888
5 866
7 626
10 422

Coeff.
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.41

Class I
4 074
4 089
4 509
5 153

323

Coeff.
1.0
1.0
1.11
1.14

Class II
1 835
1 857
1 898
1 969

Coeff.
1.0
1.01
1.03
1.04

The results of the survey show that, between 1985 and 1995, annual traffic grew by 14 per centon Class I roads and by 3 per cent on Category II roads. The highest growth rates were on roads thatare part of the European network, particularly motorways, with an annual growth rate of 8 per cent.
The average traffic density on main roads was 4 500 to 5 000 vehicles per day, of which 25 per centwere HGVs (as opposed to 20 per cent between 1985 and 1990). International traffic levels appear tohave remained relatively unchanged and continue to account for 12 per cent of total road traffic.

Trends in road network capacity
Thousand vehicle-kilometres per day

1980
1985
1990
1995

Class I
11 37812 27513 80415 888Class II
6 885
7 176
7 322
7 509

Total
26 32327 24130 75331 851

%
1.00
1.03
1.17
1.21

This table shows that Class I and II roads carry 70 per cent of the traffic in terms ofvehicle-kilometres. Over the period 1985-95, traffic volume grew by 21 per cent compared with
17 per cent over the period 1980-90. The two tables given below indicate traffic loads and the lengthof the sections concerned.

Length of four-lane highways according to traffic intensity
Number of cars/24h
7000-7999
Total
4 lane roads%
8000- 8999
Total
4 lane roads%
9000-9999
Total
4 lane roads%
10 000Total
4 lane roads%

Length ofroad sections
321 km
30 km
9.3
233 km38 km
16.3
220 km61 km
27.7
788 km134 km17.0

324

Length of roads by traffic loads
Kilometres
Number ofvehicles per day
1-999
1000-1999
2000-2999
3000-3999
4000-4999
5000-5999
6000-6999
7000-7999
8000-8999
9000-9999
10000Total

1973

1980

1985

1990

1995

4 816
3 083
1 264
845
357
200
157
92
55
26
77
10 972

3 242
2 771
1 232
681
395
285
241
131
52
21
113
9 164

3 870
3 322
1 404
791
487
362
225
187
88
59
116
10 911

3 610
3 162
1 459
864
671
330
288
142
162
98
178
10 962

3 027
2 526
1 448
1 016
686
603
348
321
233
220
788
11 216The sections with the heaviest concentrations of traffic are the same as in 1993:− I/61 (E50, E75) Nové Mesto-Trencin-Dubnica, which had a daily traffic load of
11 500 vehicles;− I/66 (E77) Banska Bystrica-Zvolen, which had a daily traffic load of 13 000 vehicles;− I/18 (E50) Zilian-Martin, which had a daily traffic load of 12 050 vehicles;− I/50 (E571) Kosice-Roznava, which had a daily traffic load of 11 650 vehicles.
The main problem with regard to traffic safety and fluidity remains the excess loading on theroad network. However, it would seem that the highway authorities have been able to distributevehicle flows relatively successfully, as the rate at which road capacity is exceeded has remained
unchanged since 1990, whereas overall traffic intensity has increased (regardless of type of road):− capacity exceeded on 23.5 per cent of the total length of Class I roads;− capacity exceeded on 5.8 per cent of the total length of Class II roads.

Question 4: Measures
Rail transport
The Slovak authorities reaffirm their desire to change the ZSR. The measures envisaged remain
the same:−−−−

privatisation of certain activities, primarily those not directly involved in traffic flows;
general reduction in the number of employees;
reduction in traffic volume, primarily on local lines;
separation of network maintenance activities from the operating side;325

− introduction of emergency regulations;− sale of buildings and infrastructure, etc.;− change in passenger and freight tariffs.
Other measures, which are more the responsibility of the State, are being considered to increase
the financial profitability of the ZSR. These measures are aimed at reducing the level of indebtednessof the ZSR and at redefining the public service provided by the railways.

Road transport
The measures envisaged for this sector remain:− increasing the capacity of the network by means of systems designed to regulate flows on
sections where capacity has already been exceeded;− improving road safety;− protection of the environment against nuisances caused by road transport.

326

SLOVENIA
Area: 20 000 km²
Population: 2 000 000

Slovenia is one of the countries which have adapted best to the changes due to the economictransition. Owing to its rapid economic growth and its geographical position, it has been able todevelop many links with its European neighbours. Since it is located on the Barcelona-Kiev corridor,
it is a transit point for freight flows between the Mediterranean countries in the European Union andthe central and eastern European countries. Slovenia exports a third of its production -- or theequivalent of almost 60 per cent of its GDP -- and the European Union accounts for over 70 per centof its total exports. It should be pointed out that its trade has probably been stimulated by the
co-operation agreement concluded with the European Union in 1993 and by its status as an associate
EU member state, as of June 1996.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Slovenia has provided information on present and past traffic flows but no forecasts. Since 1992
industrial output and export trends have been very similar. Owing to a slowdown in growth inindustrial output in 1995 from the previous year, exports rose less in real terms than imports, by
5 per-cent and 11.5 per cent, respectively. Despite a regular increase in trade in goods, the trade
deficit rose from $180 million in 1994 to $782 million in 1995.

Forecasts for growth in trade
Percentage

Exports
Imports

1994
2.0
1.0

1995
5.0
6.5

1996
5.2
7.0

1997
5.2
7.0

1998
5.7
7.5

A breakdown of freight flows by origin shows that transit accounts for half of total freighttraffic, while imports represent 30 per cent of the total, or three times the figure for domestic freight.
As the level of imports should continue to rise until 1998 (according to the above table), an increasing
tonnage can be forecast for the coming years.

327

Figure 1. Breakdown of the tonnage carried in 1995

Domestic
11%
Port transit
24%

Exports
9%

Transit
26%

Imports
30%

Source: ECMT.

It should be pointed out, however, that both freight and passenger traffic have declined regularly
since 1985-86, despite a slight recovery in 1994, particularly in freight.

Road transport
Freight traffic
Between 1980 and 1994, the number of lorries rose by 20 per cent. Road transport, however,accounts for only 25 per cent of total freight carried in Slovenia, where rail remains the leading mode.

Traffic trends, 1980-94

1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Traffic(thousand tonnes)
22 08518 64911 268
8 379
6 411
5 664
5 442

328

Traffic(millions of t-km)
3 043
3 772
3 440
3 043
2 260
1 989
1 935

Domestic freight accounts for 60 per cent of the road freight tonnage, while 10 per cent ofinternational traffic in fact consists of freight carried on vehicles in transit. Traffic expressed intonne-km reflects the same breakdown between national, international and transit traffic.
Passenger traffic
In this segment of the transport market, traffic is shared almost equally with rail. In 1994, roadtransport’s share of passengers carried for urban and intercity trips was 53 per cent and that of rail
was 42.4 per cent.

Trends in the vehicle fleet, 1980-94

1980
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Buses
2 506
3 077
2 855
2 676
2 527
2 486

Private cars
416 448578 268594 289
606 820632 563657 287

The number of private cars rose by almost 60 per cent between 1980 and 1994, to 3.1 vehicles
per 10 inhabitant or 333 per 1 000.

1980
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Passengers (thousands)
5 057
8 562
6 334
1 327
1 172
1 000

Passenger-km (millions)
68.2
112.1
105.7
28.6
28.6
23.5

It is difficult to evaluate these figures, as the same methods were not used for counting from one
year to another. The very high traffic volumes recorded for 1990 and 1991 were due to the statisticalmethod used, since the results cover transport on own account for all registered vehicles; from 1992,
the statistics take into account only those enterprises or organisations operating more than one vehicle
with at least ten seats, but not the traffic on own account performed by public road carriers.

329

Rail transport
Freight traffic
In 1994, rail accounted for 15.7 per cent of total tonne-km, as against 15 per cent in 1990. In
terms of freight, however, rail accounted for 60 per cent of the tonnage carried.

Volume of freight traffic by type of traffic
Thousand tonnes

Domestic traffic
International traffic of which:- exports- imports- transit
Total traffic

1980
12 528
9 394
2 535
2 985
3 874
21 9221985
13 073
11 319
3 151
3 672
4 496
24 3921990
8 594
13 851
4 093
3 920
5 838
22 4451991
6 065
11 168
2 934
2 817
5 417
17 233

1992
3 366
9 679
1 126
2 462
6 091
13 045

1993
3 064
8 836
1 186
2 451
5 199
11 9001994
1 866
11 154
1 390
4 086
5 678
13 020The only strong trend is in domestic traffic, which recorded an 85 per cent decrease between
1980 and 1994. The situation is more complex for international rail transport, with growth of
18 per cent over this period but a 20 per cent decrease in tonnage between 1990 and 1994. The resultsfor international transport are due to transit and import traffic flows, which rose by 46 per cent and36 per cent, respectively, between 1980 and 1994.
Passenger traffic
Rail accounted for 50.2 per cent of total passenger-km in 1994 as against 46.3 per cent in 1990.
It also had very good results for domestic traffic. Even so, the total volume of rail traffic has declinedby almost 40 per cent since 1980. Between 1980 and 1994, international lines had the greatest
decrease in rail passengers, with a decline of 49 per cent, as against 35 per cent for domestic traffic.

Trend in rail traffic, 1980-94
Thousands of passengers carried

1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Internationaltraffic
1 959
1 503
1 669
1 023
1 331
1 042
992

Domestic traffic

Total

18 88227 64619 42714 26410 955
11 59412 11320 84129 14921 09615 287
12 286
12 63613 105330

In terms of passenger-km, traffic was down even more. Both international and national traffic
declined by about a factor of three.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
The increase in trade fully justifies the development of Slovenia’s transport infrastructure. The
country’s socio-demographic structure also requires a dense infrastructure, as Slovenia is highly
decentralised and very attached to the “urban village” concept. There are very few large population
centres, the capital Ljubljana has only 270 000 inhabitants, and only three towns have a population ofover 30 000. Therefore, the transport network must be sufficiently dense to meet the population’s
mobility needs.
Developing the transport and telecommunications system therefore meets a number ofobjectives:−−−−

increase economic competitiveness by reducing transport and communication costs;
prepare for integration into the European Union;
develop the transport network in response to the increase in mobility and trade;
improve transport safety.

In order to meet these objectives, the Ministry of Transport drew up in 1993 an overall strategy
for the various modes based on a number of master plans:− a national programme for the construction of motorways in Slovenia;− a national programme for the development of combined rail/road infrastructure;− a national programme for the development of railway infrastructure.
These programmes focus on the construction of four-lane motorways, the modernisation ofrailway tracks, and the provision of new rail/road connections.
The national plan for other roads, which is now being prepared, is aimed at improving access tothe motorway network and to multimodal facilities, providing better inter-regional connections, andfacilitating commercial and tourist traffic flows.
In connection with these programmes, a number of transport and telecommunications
infrastructure operations have been approved or are being implemented:
−
−
−
−
−
−

the reconstruction of 148 km of tracks by 1997;
the modernisation of signalling devices on the line Ljubljana-Sezana by 1998;
the renewal of railway telecommunication devices by 1998;
the construction of the new railway link between Slovenia and Hungary by 1999;
the construction of 358 km of east-west motorway by 1999;
the construction of 113 km of north-south motorway by 2004.

331

Road infrastructure
Present situation
Although the volume of construction work has doubled since 1980, motorways account for only
2 per cent of the total length of the Slovene road network.

Breakdown of the Slovene road network, 1980-94
Kilometres

Motorways
Main roads
Regional roads
Local roads
Total

1980
122
1081
3706
9741
14 650

1985
199
1082
3694
9137
14 113

1990
228
1357
3395
9572
14 552

1994
277
1356
3396
9781
14 810Of this network, 663 km are classified as international roads.
Priority projects not included in the TEN corridors
The national road infrastructure programme will not be defined before the end of 1997. So far,the Slovene authorities have not referred to any priority project at national level.

Rail infrastructure
Present situation
The particularity of Slovenia’s rail infrastructure is that, until 1991, the Slovenian Railways(Ljubljana Rail Authority) did not operate all lines on the Slovene territory, in particular those locatedaround Lendava, but it was responsible for certain lines in Croatia: Sapjone-Rijeka (excluding its
station), Buzet-Pula and Lupoglav-Rasa. Two networks are therefore to be distinguished:

Length in km
1980
1985
1990
1994

Slovenian Railways
network
1 229
1 228
1 366
1 201

332

Network of the Republicof Slovenia
1 058
1 058
1 196
1 201

In both cases, 40 per cent of the lines are electrified and 27 per cent are double track. The
amount of rolling stock has decreased regularly since 1990, after rising from 1980 to 1985. In 1996,
it consisted of 209 electric and diesel locomotives, and 113 electric and diesel motor trains.
Priority projects not included in the TEN corridors
These include:− construction of a second track on existing lines:•••

Divaca-Koper section (45.8 km): start of work scheduled for 1998 and start of service inthe year 2000 (part of the Crete corridor n° V);
Maribor-Sentilj section (16.5 km): start of construction after the year 2000;
Ljubljana-Jesenice section (71.2 km): start of construction after the year 2005;− construction of new rail links:••

Puconci-Hodos section (25 km): start of work in 1997 and start of service in 1999 (part ofCrete corridor n° V);
Beltinci-Lendava section (20 km): start of work in 1998 and start of service in theyear 2000;− construction of a high-speed line:•

Trieste-Ljubljana-Zidani Most-Budimpesta-Belgrad line: start of construction after theyear 2005 (part of Crete corridor n° V).

Question 3: Capacity problems
Slovenia is confronted with a number of road and rail capacity problems which are to beresolved by the implementation of the national motorway construction and railway development
programme. Mobility, particularly for commuter traffic, is increasingly affected by tailbacks on themain routes, a limitation which has to be taken into account in the choice of a job and is a real brakeon rapid economic and social development.

Road transport
National statistics show a disturbing increase in road accidents. Efforts to improve road safety
between 1980 and 1990 appear to have been successful, but with the increase in the number ofvehicles on the road, the number of accidents rose again between 1990 and 1994 to the figures for
1980, i.e. before the start of the policy to reduce accidents. Slovenia is among the European countries
with the highest accident rates.

333

1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Number of accidents(injured or dead)
6 941
5 481
5 177
5 479
5 882
6 290
6 586

Question 4: Measures
No measures were announced.

SOURCES

Ministry of Transport, Annual Report 1995 (Slovenske zeleznice).
Ministry of Transport, Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Slovenia, 1995.
NOVAK, Marjana, “Strategies for public and private financing and land acquisition programmes”,
Ministry of Transport and Communications, Republic of Slovenia, November 1996.
REYNAUD, Christian and POINCELET, Martine, “De la transition à l’intégration : Quelles
conditions pour les transports ?”, INRETS-DEST.

334

SPAIN
Area: 497 500 km²
Population: 39 million

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic

Passenger traffic
Domestic traffic
The traffic forecasts for the year 2000 were made in 1989 on the basis of an analysis of traffic levels
over the period 1985-89. Results observed since 1990 suggest that these forecasts remain valid,
particularly for road traffic.
The situation for rail traffic is less clear, since, for the past five years, growth in the rail sector has
been very uneven: up 7.3 per cent in 1992 but down 5.71 per cent in 1993.

Trends and forecasts for domestic interurban inland transport
Billion passenger-kilometres
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

2000

Road

197

209.0

220.0

231.0

237.0

245.0

253.5

308

Rail

16

16.7

16.3

17.5

16.5

16.1

16.6

24

Total

213

226.0

236.0

248.0

253.0

261.0

270.1

332

335

Figure 1. Domestic passenger traffic in 1995: modal split

Rail
5.9%

Air Sea
3.6% 0.4%

Road
90.2%

Source: Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

Growth has been higher for air transport than for other modes over the past five years (+58 per cent),
but road transport has by far the largest share of the market. Rail traffic’s share of total traffic volume has
increased by only 0.6 per cent since 1989.

International traffic
Road transport dominates international traffic somewhat less than it does the domestic market. As aresult of the large increase (+65 per cent) in the volume of road traffic between 1990 and 1991, the road
sector accounts for as much as 65 per cent of total cross-border traffic. Air transport comes second with
28 per cent of the international passenger market. International rail traffic, on the other hand, accounts forless than 4 per cent of total traffic. Traffic volume quadrupled in 1991, but has since remained stable.
Since 1989, there has been virtually no change in maritime transport’s share of the market (less than
3 per cent of all traffic).

336

Figure 2. International passenger traffic in 1994: modal split
Thousands

70 00070 000In-bound

60 00060 000Out-bound

50 00050 00040 00040 00030 00030 000

20 000

20 000

10 000

10 000

0

0
Road

Rail

Sea

Air

Total

Source: Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

Road transport
Traffic trends on the Spanish road network, 1985-95
Million vehicle-kilometres

Motorcycles
Private cars
Bus and coach
Total
1)

1985
856
64 69516 81382 364

1990
840
97 49019 631
117 9611991
960
102 744
21 182124 8861992
962
111 61120 291132 8641993
890
117 160
22 305140 355

1

1994
1 014
121 509
22 723145 2461995
998
125 201
23 943150 142

Data from network (motorways and roads) owned by the Central Administration (21 945 km).

337

Figure 3.

Traffic trends on the Spanish road network, 1985-951
Million vehicle-kilometres

160

160
Motorcycles
Private cars
Bus and coach
Total

140
120

140
120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

0

1. Data from network (motorways and roads) owned by the Central Administration (21 945 km).
Source: Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

An analysis of traffic over the period 1989-94 confirms the growth rates forecast for the early 1990sin the Second Road Plan (1992-2000). It was forecast that, after a long period during which the volume ofroad traffic is expected to rise steadily, in terms of both vehicle-kilometres and passengers or tonnes,
traffic levels will stabilise, notably in the freight sector. Heavy vehicle traffic over the forthcoming period
is expected to grow at just under half the rate for the previous period.

Actual and expected annual traffic growth rates, by type of vehicle
Cumulative annual
ratesLight vehicles
Heavy vehicles
Total

1989-94
Actual rate
4.83
2.96
4.53

1988-95
Forecast
4.9
3.0
4.6

1995-2000
Forecast
3.2
1.8
3.0

Rail transport
After a lengthy period during which rail transport was neglected, the Spanish authorities are relying
on modernisation of the rail network and the introduction of high-speed services to revive long-distancetraffic. In terms of the number of passenger-kilometres, traffic is expected to have risen by a factor of
2.5 by the year 2000.

338

However, growth rates of this magnitude appear to be highly optimistic, given the declining trend indemand for long-distance rail traffic (down 33 per cent between 1989 and 1994).

Demand for long-distance passenger traffic
Billion passenger-kilometres

AVE (high-speed train)Long distance
Total

1989

1990

1991

8.62

8.45

7.99

1992
0.5
7.79
8.30

1993
1.09
6.38
7.48

1994
1.19
5.74
6.94

1995
1.29
5.81
7.10

2000

17.18

Regional and suburban rail traffic has recently experienced an upturn and, following a decline inprivate car use, once more accounts for a significant share of the market. Since 1991, the number ofpassengers travelling by suburban rail transport has increased by 30 per cent and the number ofpassenger-kilometres has risen by 14 per cent.
This renewed growth is the outcome of the policy to develop suburban rail transport set out in the
Cercanias Plan (1990-93). Of the ECU 1.2 billion earmarked for suburban rail transport under the Plan,half was spent on infrastructure development, and the other half was used to renew rolling stock in
13 towns and cities.

Regional and urban traffic trends
Billion passenger-kilometres

Regional
Suburban
Total

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

2000

2.32
3.76
6.08

2.42
4.59
7.02

1.90
5.13
7.03

2.15
5.84
7.99

2.08
5.66
7.74

2.02
5.88
7.91

2.08
6.14
8.22

2.21
6.43
8.65

OverallAnnualgrowth rate growth rate
23.5
1.4
47.3
2.6
40.4
2.3

Freight traffic
Domestic traffic
Growth in the road sector (passenger and freight) would seem to confirm the forecasts of the early
1990s. In the rail sector, on the other hand, the volume of traffic forecast for the year 2000 will be moredifficult to attain. In the case of both these modes, freight traffic trends are identical to the trends indomestic passenger traffic. Road traffic is growing at a steady rate, whereas growth in the rail sector ismore uneven.
Maritime transport remains the second largest mode of freight transport in Spain, despite a heavy
drop in volume (down 15 per cent between 1989 and 1994).

339

Trends and forecasts for domestic interurban inland transport, 1989-2000
Billion tonne-km

Road
Rail
Total

1989
145
12
157

1990
151.0
11.6
162.0

1991
157
10
167

1992
160.0
9.5
170.0

1993
164
8
172

1994
172
9
181

1995
183
10
193

2000
184
16
200

1994
172
9
5.4
30
0.098
217

1995
183
10
5.9
38
0.082
237.1

Changes in the modal split, 1989-95
Billion tonne-km

Road
Rail
Pipelines
Maritime
Air
Total

1989
145
12
4
35
0.10
196

1990
151
11.6
4.2
33
0.091
199

1991
157
10
4.7
34
0.090
206

1992
160
9.5
5.2
32
0.096
208

1993
164
8
5.5
28
0.094
206

Figure 4. Modal split for domestic freight traffic in 1995

Sea
16%

Air
0.1%

Pipeline
2.5%
Rail
4.2%

Road
77.2%

Source : Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

340

International traffic
The modal split in the international freight sector highlights the importance of maritime transport.
The overall volume of international freight traffic is shared between maritime transport and road transport(76 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively). Rail transport accounts for only 1 per cent of traffic, while air
freight traffic accounted for less than a million tonnes in 1994. The latter therefore does not appear on thegraph below; however, the volume of goods transported by plane has risen by 40 per cent since 1991, thelargest increase since 1989.

Figure 5. Modal split for international freight traffic in 1994
Thousand tonnes

160 000
140 000

160 000
In-bound

140 000

Out-bound

120 000

120 000

100 000

100 000

80 00080 00060 00060 00040 00040 000

20 000

20 000

0

0
Road

Rail

Sea

Air

Total

Source: Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects
Description of existing infrastructure
After deep cuts in 1986, the Spanish budget for infrastructure investment has grown rapidly over the
past few years. In 1991, it totalled Ptas 1 000 billion, three times the amount in 1986 and twice theaverage for the period 1980-84. The level of funds allocated to infrastructure investment fell slightly in
1992 and has now stabilised at around Ptas 900 billion. Budget cuts can be expected over the next few
years (notably in 1996 and 1997) owing to problems associated with meeting the Maastricht criteria.
In 1994, infrastructure investment amounted to 1.4 per cent of GDP, compared with 1.6 per centin 1991. Between 1987 and 1991, favourable economic growth in Spain led to a sharp increase in
spending on infrastructure. During this period, GDP rose by between 5 and 6 per cent a year.

341

The main feature of Spain’s transport investment policy over the past ten years has been the growing
emphasis placed on road infrastructure (71 per cent of the investment budget in 1994 compared with
47 per cent in 1985). Despite renewed investment in railway infrastructure, with the construction of ahigh-speed line between Madrid and Seville (1989-91), the rail share of the investment budget has
dwindled from 31 per cent in 1985 to only 14 per cent in 1994. Between 1993 and 1994, it fell by
30 per cent.
Ports and airports have also experienced a decline in funding. In 1994, their shares of the investment
budget were 6 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.
The new master plan for the development of interurban transport infrastructure (1993-2007) seeks torestore the balance in terms of the amount of funding allocated to each mode. It aims to increase
investment in the rail sector through a slight reduction in the funds allocated to road infrastructure.

Figure 6. Distribution of investment funds allocatedto interurban transport, 1993-2007
Billion Ptas in 1992
Ports
8%
Airports
9%

Roads
52%

Railway lines
30%

Environmental measures
1%

Source: Statistical Directory, Transport and Communications, Ministry of Public Works, 1995.

Roads
Combined transport
Railway lines
Ports
Airports
Environmental measures
Total

Billion pesetas, 1992
5 468
121
3 222
800
1 000
128
10 739
342

%
51
1
30
8
9
1
100

Annual average
365
8
215
53
67
9
716

Railway infrastructure
The Spanish railway network comprises 14 700 km of line, built for the most part in the 19th century
and modernised in 1960. Insufficient investment has resulted in a shortage of track, which in turn has
resulted in severe congestion, particularly in the north of the country. Non-electrified single track makes
up half the network. In addition, the operation of international services is hampered by the track gauge,
which is specific to Spain.
As a result, a great deal of traffic is transferred to competing modes, particularly road transport, and,in the case of long-distance traffic, to air transport.

Length of the Spanish rail network
Kilometres
1980

1985

1990

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total network
15 728
Of which total
13 542RENFE
Of which total FEVE 1 508

14 896
12 71014 61812 560

15 021
13 041

14 58812 60114 68312 64614 291
12 280

94/93
%
0.7
0.4

1 509

1 301

1 222

1 222

1 191

1 193

-2.5

1995
3 261
21
3 593
5 405
12 280

%
25.84
0.17
29.50
44.49
100.00RENFE infrastructure
1994
3 269
21
3 730
5 626
12 646

Electrified double track
Non-electrified double track
Non-electrified single track
Non-electrified single track
Total

Since the 1960s, railway infrastructure policy has been characterised by very irregular investment
cycles.

Investment trends in the rail sector
Million pesetas

Total
Of which total RENFE- Rolling stock- Infrastructure- Other

1980

1985

1990

1992

1993

1994

1995

62 93348 306
11 42632 4764 404

89 99444 05724 86917 9071 281

247 036
152 799
64 18476 186
12 429238 644
192 394
93 42289 0069 966

203 719
134 649
67 32460 7716 554

141 92168 66227 78839 0231 851

160 100
73 22739 14428 317
5 766

343

94/93
%
-30.3
-49
-58.7
-35.8
-71.8

Between 1990 and 1994, investment in trains, underground railways, and tramways fell by
50 per cent, even though improvements to the rail network are considered an absolute priority, as clearlystated in the new transport infrastructure master plan.
New railway construction projects aim to achieve these improvements by ensuring better links
between the Spanish network and the European high-speed network. Priority has been given to the entry
into service of a high-speed line between Madrid, Barcelona and Montpellier and to the construction ofanother line through the Pyrenees on the western side of Spain.
The other important priority of investment policy in the rail sector is the development of efficientpublic transport networks. Following the success of the Cercanias Plan, a new plan was submitted in
October 1995, aimed at developing suburban rail services in Madrid over the period 1996-2001. The plan
includes proposals for developing public rail transport as well as combined transport, in a number of
Spanish cities.

Road infrastructure
Since 1990, the annual road infrastructure investment budget, which was only Ptas 90 billion in 1985,
has not fallen below Ptas 600 billion. Consequently, the road network has steadily improved in terms ofboth quality and length, particularly with regard to motorways and expressways. Moreover, only
2 000 km of the national road network (162 000 km) are toll roads.

Length and breakdown of the Spanish road network
Kilometres

Motorways and expressways
Roads administered by central
government
Roads administered by theautonomous regions
Roads administered by local
authorities
Total

1985
3 170

1990
5 126

1991
5 801

1992
6 988

1993
7 404

1994
7 736

1995
8 133

94-93
4.5%

17 786

16 57016 19315 62915 86216 53416 652

4.2%

69 71770 41470 26970 26970 62671 07670 981

0.6%

62 82564 47964 66064 66065 97267 09566 851

1.7%

153 498

156 589

156 923

157 546

159 864

162 441

162 617

1.6%

Development of the Spanish road network, 1991-95
Growth rate (%)
Road network
Motorways and expressways

1991
0.2
13.2

1992
0.4
20.5

1993
1.5
6.0

1994
1.6
4.5

1995
0.1
5.1

Priority infrastructure projects not included in the TEN
These are projects which were not selected during the Essen Summit but which are included in the
Infrastructure Master Plan for the period 1992-2007.
344

Road infrastructure
Five construction projects are currently in progress:
−
−
−
−
−

access roads into Galicia;
the Cantabrian corridor;
the Somport-Valencia corridor;
extension of the Mediterranean corridor as far as the Costa del Sol;the “Silver” highway from Asturias to Seville.

All of these projects involve the construction of high-capacity infrastructure. The different solutions
adopted (construction of a second highway in certain corridors, extension of corridors) depend on theparticular section of road under construction. The ultimate aim is to build a modern road network
consisting of two-lane double carriageways of motorway standard.
The project completion dates are not yet known, but the roads must be open for traffic by 2007 at thelatest.
Assuming that it costs between Ptas 400 and 500 million to build one kilometre of high capacity road,the total cost of the projects is expected to amount to one thousand billion pesetas.

Railway infrastructure
The main railway infrastructure project concerns the Mediterranean coastal line, which is to be
upgraded to allow trains to be operated at 200 km/h. The link in question is 500 km long and connects
Barcelona, Valencia and Murcia. The total cost of the project is Ptas 500 billion.

Question 3: Capacity problems
The rail network’s failure to keep up with technological progress has meant that congestion is aproblem affecting not only northern Spain and lines into major cities but also the development of an
efficient combined transport system.
The other difficulty frequently encountered in the rail sector, and sometimes in urban road transport
as well, concerns implementation of infrastructure development policies. Co-ordination between theservices responsible for transport and the services in charge of territorial development is lacking. Policy
conflicts between the different authorities concerned (i.e. central government, regions, towns and otherlocal organisations) are not uncommon.

Question 4: Measures
In order to build the additional 8 850 km of roads scheduled in the master plan by 2007, newfinancing sources must be found. Several alternatives are currently under consideration:− use of tolls to fund private road projects;− the introduction of user fees on the main national and express roads;345

− higher fuel and/or vehicle taxes;− more responsibility transferred to the autonomous regions and local authorities.
The first alternative seems highly unlikely at present, given the small volume of traffic recorded on
toll roads during previous experiments, not to mention the financial problems encountered by the twocompanies responsible for managing the toll sections in the 1970s.

346

SWEDEN
2

Area: 411 000 km
Population: 8.9 million

Economic forecasts made in 1987, 1990 and 1992 estimate annual GNP growth to the year 2020
at 2 per cent at most and 1-1.5 per cent at worst. The government foresees average growth of
1.5 per cent between 1990 and 2005.
The population should continue to rise slowly to 9.1 million in 2005 and 9.4 million in 2020.
There will be no stop to rural depopulation. The number of jobs will go on increasing until the end of
the century and gradually decline thereafter.
The trend in the transport sector largely reflects the national economy, but it is also affected bystructural changes in society:− the growing specialisation of industry;− the reduction of activity in heavy industry and raw materials processing;− the growing importance of high-technology industries so that freight tonnage is declining
while the value added of the goods carried is rising;− the growing internationalisation of markets and increases in transport distances.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Since the price of oil should rise strongly until 2005, the highest increase in the various transport
cost components will be in fuel (up 40 per cent). The cost of road transport will, however, rise more
slowly over this period (up 30 per cent), because fuel consumption per kilometre should decline.

Freight traffic
In the early 1990s, total freight traffic (both domestic and international traffic carried by
Swedish operators) marked time. The forecasts, based on observation of the economic cycles forindustrial output, are for growth in road transport, stabilisation of rail traffic and quite a marked
decrease in sea traffic.

347

Domestic traffic
In the last decade, domestic traffic rose on average by 1.2 per cent a year. Freight tonnage
declined, while average transport distances increased. This applied particularly to the rail sector,
where the average freight transport distance rose by 16 per cent, from 290 to 340 km. The averagetransport distance in 1990 was 490 km for certain flows, such as the transport of ores and ferrous
products.
Until 1987 road and rail traffic grew at the same pace. After that date, road freight grew at aslightly faster rate.

Modal split in domestic long-distance traffic (> 100 km)
Road
Rail
Sea

44%
40%
16%

Forecasts for domestic traffic growthRoad, short-distanceRoad, long-distanceRail
Cabotage

Period 1990-2005% tonnes% t-km
23.8
24.4
25.5
25.6
23.2
27.9
16.0
14.6

Period 1990-2020% tonnes% t-km
55
63
76
79
58
70
38
35

International traffic
This traffic consists of transport flows that start in Sweden and continue abroad after crossing theBaltic (or vice versa). It is estimated that international traffic is carried over a distance of at least
650 km and accounts for 40 per cent of Swedish transport activity.

Modal split in import and export flows in 1990

Exports
Imports

Million tonnes%
Million tonnes
%

Sea
29.7
53.0
41.6
78.0

Rail
18.1
32.0
3.2
6.0

Maritime transport is still the leading mode for foreign trade.

348

Road
8.4
15.0
8.4
16.0

Total
56.2
100.0
53.2
100.0

Forecasts for growth in traffic between 1990 and 2020

Road
Sea
Rail

1990
Million tonnes
16.8
71.3
21.3

1990-2005% growth48
20
9

1990-2020% growth
165
70
44

Despite a very sharp increase in road traffic, maritime transport will still be the leading mode forthis type of traffic in 2020, with 120 million tonnes. However, the road sector’s share of the market
will exceed the rail sector’s by 15 million tonnes.
The increase in rail tonnage does not necessarily mean a similar increase in the number of goods
trains. Instead of using heavier trains or increasing the number of complete train loads, productivity
per train (or daily utilisation) could be increased in order to meet market demand more effectively.

Road transport
In terms of tonne-km, road transport is a major mode. In terms of the value of the freight carries,
it would lead the field.

Road transport on own account and public road transport. 1990-93
Millions

1990
1991*
1992*
1993

Public transport
In tonnes
In t-km307.3
23 005288.6
22 219273.2
21 189254.5
22 652

Transport on own accountIn tonnes
In t-km
80.8
3 514
72.8
3 149
69.8
3 096
60.5
3 256

* Estimated.

Total road freight in tonne-km will rise by 44 per cent up to the year 2020 (i.e. 20 per centbetween 1993 and 2005 and 20 per cent between 2005 and 2020) owing to the increasing volume oftrade in products with a high value added. Road transport will account for half the increase in total
freight traffic.

349

Rail transport
Until the 1980s, sea and rail transport were the main long-distance modes, particularly forexports. In the 1990s, rail traffic started to decline and road traffic began to rise. Investments areplanned, however, for rail and sea transport in order to improve their market share.

Trends in rail freight traffic, 1990-94
Millions

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

In tonnes
53.7
53.2
51.5
51.5
55

In t-km
18 756
18 57519 20218 57819 054Passenger traffic
Long-distance traffic has increased faster in recent years than short- and medium-distance traffic(30 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively).
Between 1990 and 2005, total Swedish traffic expressed in passenger-km should rise by
18 per cent (or by 1.1 per cent a year), despite the current economic recession. In the period
2005-2020, growth should be lower (14 per cent, or 0.9 per cent a year).

Annual growth in total passenger-km in Sweden, 1960-2025
1960
1970
1980
1990-2005
2005-2020

3.9%
2.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%

The number of trips should decrease but trip lengths should increase. Growth in national andregional travel for professional reasons will exceed that of local travel.
The 20th century is marked by radical changes in travel habits. The average use of the private
car by the end of the century should amount to 45 to 50 km per day. The average distance travelledon public transport, which is now 10 km a day, should not exceed 13 km a day in the year 2020.

350

Short- and medium-distance traffic
This traffic should increase by about 10 per cent. The best means of transport for short- andmedium-distance passengers is still the private car. In densely populated areas, however, public
transport can compete with the car.

Figure 1. Modal split comparison
for short- and medium-distance trips in 1989 and 2005
%

%

90

90

80

1989
2005

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0
Private cars

Bus, tram and underground

Railway

Other

Source: ECMT.

Current investment in rolling stock points to a marked increase in the long term in
medium-distance rail traffic (up 20 per cent between 1990 and 2020). At present, however, rail isregularly losing ground, as its 10 per cent decrease in market share in 1990 indicates.

Long-distance traffic
This traffic involves trips exceeding 100 km, which account for a third of total passenger-km
in Sweden.

351

Figure 2. Modal split for long-distance trips in 1989 and 2005
%

%

80

80
1989
2005

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10
0

0
Private cars

Bus

Railway

Aircraft

Source: ECMT.

In the period 1990-2020, travel for professional reasons by air and train will have the highest
growth, with increases of 55 and 65 per cent, respectively.

Rail transport
Extensive streamlining of the airline industry and substantial investment in infrastructure andaircraft compared with 30 years of low investment in rail have largely helped to make air transport
relatively cheaper than rail.
Rail has also lost traffic to road transport, since trip times by car have been considerably reduced
owing to frequent investment in infrastructure and technical improvements to vehicles.
The forecasts for rail traffic growth are based on the assumption that investment in infrastructure
will be substantial. The improvement in trip times, particularly through the introduction ofhigh-speed trains, should increase rail’s share in total traffic.

352

Correlation between market share and transport time

Situation in 1989
Scenario 1, year 2005
Scenario 2, year 2005
Scenario 3, year 2005

Trip time
6h00
6h00
5h00
3h40

Market share
25%
18%
24%
34%

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects

Road infrastructure
The Swedish Parliament, the Riksdag, has made the SNRA (Swedish National Road
Administration) responsible for managing Swedish roads (state roads) and for road safety andenvironmental issues.
Road management means the operation and maintenance of national and county roads andinvestment in national roads. Investment in county roads is the responsibility of the county
administration boards.
With regard to traffic, the SNRA’s policy is aimed at:− providing a transport system which will meet not only the transport needs of the generalpublic but also industrial and commercial requirements;− ensuring that the transport system complies with road safety provisions;− integrating the transport system in the environment by managing resources in the best
possible way;
− restoring regional balances through the construction of new infrastructure;− ensuring optimum use of the community’s resources.
In June 1993 the Riksdag adopted a resolution on the planning of new infrastructure for theperiod 1994-2003. Accordingly, investment in road infrastructure should also make it possible to:
−
−
−
−
−

increase road capacity in response to economic growth;
improve road safety;
fully integrate environmental and regional balance objectives;
find new ways of increasing capacity on existing roads;
using the state roads as a basis, define and develop a national trunk road network of thehighest standard to serve international traffic.

The following sums are to be allocated for this purpose:− Skr 40 billion over ten years for national roads;− Skr 9 billion for transport infrastructure, all modes combined, in the counties (county roads,
local airports, regional rail services, etc.);− Skr 7 billion for the development of the existing road network’s capacity.
353

A budget of between Skr 59 billion and 93 billion should be allocated to the SNRA for theoperation and maintenance of state roads. Parliament has not yet approved the final budget, as it has
not decided whether to maintain or increase the level of taxes (paid by users) allocated directly to
infrastructure. At present there are therefore two possible levels for future investment.

Compulsory contribution by road users
In kroner

Current low level
Level in year 2000

Tax on vehicles
350/quarter
560/quarterTax on fuel0.5/litre
0.5/litreOver the period 1994-2003, Skr 33 billion should be allocated to improving the roads in thenational trunk road network. The objective for the year 2003 is not to extend this network but tomodernise it in order to increase its efficiency. It will therefore still be 8 020 km in length, as in1992, but the total length of the motorway sections will be doubled.

354

Sweden's total road network
410 000 km

24% of the network

State roads= 100 000 km
73% of total traffic

68%

85%

County roads= 83 400 km
39% of total traffic

National roads= 15 000 km
61% of total traffic

Motorways= 960 km4%

Roads:
13 metres= 3 800 km

National trunk
road network= 8 020 km
Motorways
920 kmRoads 13 metreswide
2 860 kmRoads 9 metreswide
2 220 km
Other roads(< 8 m)
2 020 km5%

Roads:
9 metres= 5 390 km

Local authority
roads= 24% of total traffic

Private roads= 3% of total traffic

15%

1%

24%

5%

0.02%

Other roads(< 8 m)= 4 440 km

Motorways= 30 km0.6%

Roads:
13 metres= 600 km

Other national roads= 6 570 km
Motorways
40 km
Roads 13 metreswide
940 kmRoads 9 metreswide
3 170 km
Other roads(< 8 m)
2 420 km

Source: ECMT.

Private roads account for only 3 per cent of total vehicle-km.
The SNRA has worked out a construction plan for the period 1994-2003.
355

5%

Roads
9 metres= 4 720 km

80%

Other roads(< 8 m)= 7 800 km

Rail infrastructure
National railway lines consist of two types of networks: the trunk railway, comprising the main
national and international lines, and the county railway, comprising local lines on which freightcapacity is low.
The trunk railway network is electrified and takes a freight train axle load of 22.5 tonnes at an
average speed of between 90 and 100 km/h. Until recently, passengers were not carried at over120-130 km/h. Since 1989, the West Main Line (serving as a showcase for Swedish Rail) has offereda high-speed train service with the use of X2000 trains running at 200 km/h.
Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration) plans to invest Skr 3 billion a year up
to 2003. The objectives set for this period are:− to create a high-speed train network on the main routes;− to provide freight services of the highest standard;− to provide efficient passenger and freight services to and from the continent.
In 2003, high-speed trains (170-200 km/h) should be in service on the main lines running from
Gothenburg and Stockholm to Malmö and Copenhagen, from Gothenburg to Malmö, and from
Stockholm to Sundsvall, Västeras, Eskilstuna, Karlstad and Borlänge.
A large number of sections will be modified to increase speed from 130 km/h to 160 km/h. The
Arlanda line will be completed and include an extension to the north as well as a third track to
Stockholm. The line linking Gothenburg to Oslo will be extended, as will the line from Sundsvall to
Umea. Freight transport will also benefit from all these improvements. The freight line crossing the
Bergslagen region as well as the switching centres and freight terminals on the entire network are to
be modernised.

Aviation infrastructure
Sweden’s aviation infrastructure is quite modern, for air transport has been developed regularly
to meet the growing demand for the transport of passengers and of goods with high value added. The
investment planned up to the year 2003 is not strategic in nature. The Board of Civil Aviation has
budgeted Skr 1.5 billion a year from 1995 to 1998 and Skr 1 billion from 1999 to 2003. The main
projects are the opening of a third runway at Arlanda, the construction of a new airport at Karlstad
and the replacement of the Arlanda control tower.
No substantial investments should be made between 1994 and 2003 in local airports for which
the counties are responsible.
Some new air services should be opened: Gothenburg-Malmö, Gothenburg-Östersund,
Lulea-Sundsvall, Umea-Kristianstad and Umea-Arvidsjaur.

356

Maritime transport infrastructure
The capacity of the existing infrastructure is quite sufficient to cope with the expected growth insea freight. The main investments concern the local authorities and ports. The National
Administration of Shipping and Navigation intends, however, to improve the channels between
Stockholm and Lulea and those in the Sound.

Question 3: Capacity problems

Road network
Total road traffic generates emissions of 18 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and 160 000 tonnesof nitrogen oxide a year with the result that 150 000 to 200 000 people are exposed to atmosphericpollution that exceeds the recommended standards. In addition, 340 000 people are subject to noiselevels of over 65 decibels.
The vehicles of 66 per cent of road users are not subject to the exhaust emissions test introduced
in 1989. The total vehicle fleet is quite old. Of the 3.6 million private cars in service, 40 per cent are
between five and ten years old, as are 50 per cent of lorries. The quality of 200 km of state roads and
1 800 km of county roads is particularly unsatisfactory. Some 15 per cent of state Roads and7 per cent of county roads are congested. The most congested segments are on roads which are seen
as important in the European context: the E20, E18, E4, E6, E22 and the Rv40. About 800 km of
these roads are affected by congestion problems.
In the Swedish road network as a whole, all cases of congestion occur within the Gothenburg,
Stockholm and Malmö triangle. The outskirts of these three towns are also extremely congested.

Rail network
In rail transport, the same part of the country is marked by capacity and congestion problems as
in road transport: the region bounded by Gothenburg, Stockholm and Malmö.

Maritime transport services
There are no particular capacity problems in maritime transport, especially as service frequency
can be easily adjusted to meet increased demand.

357

Question 4: Measures

Rail transport
Since 1989 a number of measures have been taken to promote passenger traffic, such as:− the implementation between 1989 and 2005 of a programme to improve and increase
infrastructure capacity;− a plan established in 1993 to develop the infrastructure required for high-speed trains and toincrease the frequency of services;− the preparation of a strategic rail plan to improve infrastructure and service quality has justbeen completed but has not yet been approved.

358

SWITZERLAND
Area: 41 293 km²
Population: 7 000 000

Although Switzerland is not part of the European Economic Area (EEA), the question ofmembership in the European Union remains, and this is evident in the country’s traffic forecast
scenarios, which require modification in the light of recent and profound changes in the socioeconomic environment. Scenarios A1 and A2 (the “go-it-alone” scenarios) reflect the situation
should Switzerland elect not to join the European Union. Scenarios I1 and I2, instead, reflect thesituation in the event that Switzerland does opt to become a member.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
With regard to passenger transport, the figures for 1992 show a decline in the growth of public
transport (rail and road). However, there is no cause for alarm, as public transport has been able tomaintain and even increase its share of the overall market and traffic forecasts for 2015 are highly
optimistic. Indeed, the number of air transport passengers is expected to almost double by the year
2015.

Forecasting methods and overall results
In order to update its traffic trend projections to the year 2015, Switzerland used a set of quite
divergent scenarios, as follows:−−−−

A1 Go-it-alone/economic stagnation;
A2 Go-it-alone/economic growth;
I1 Integration/economic stagnation;
I2 Integration/economic growth.

In all these scenarios, passenger traffic (all modes) is expected to increase from now to the year
2015, although less rapidly than it did over the past 20 years. In terms of passenger-km, it is expected
to increase by approximately 40 per cent, from 98 billion passenger-km in 1990 to 135-140 billion in2015.
A sensitivity analysis of the passenger traffic study was conducted using three reference
scenarios. The minimum population scenario, M1, assumes a stabilisation of Switzerland’s
population at 7.1 million in 2015 and an unfavourable economic climate. Even so, passenger traffic is359

expected to increase from 98 billion to 121 billion passenger-km. In addition, the “Environment”
scenarios M2 and M3, which assume that car prices will go up, predict a lower rate of car ownership.
Scenarios M2 and M3 also assume that car running costs will increase relative to scenario I2 (by 25
and 50 per cent, respectively) as a result of pollution abatement taxes. The impact of these taxes
would only be felt above a certain level and after some time. Even though these are not hard-and-fast
forecasts, the assumptions do not suggest a massive increase in motor traffic.
The forecasts indicate that freight traffic will continue to increase, and even that it will increaseat a faster rate. Over the period 1970-92, freight traffic in tonne-km increased by 2.1 per cent a year.
Over the next 20 years, the rate of growth forecast varies between 2.7 and 3.5 per cent a year,
depending on the scenario.
A sensitivity analysis was also conducted for freight traffic forecasts using a minimum scenario,
the M scenario, which was used to calculate a “lower bound” for freight traffic growth. Based on theminimum assumptions, a rate of growth of 2.2 per cent in overall freight traffic is obtained, i.e. a rate
about the same as that observed in the period 1970-92.

Rail traffic
The overall trend in rail traffic in Switzerland is not linear: it shows some peaks and troughs.
But, overall, performance in 1994 was down compared with 1990.
Total train-kilometres on the Swiss Railways (CFF) network increased from 122.3 million in1990 to 123.5 million in 1992, only to fall to 121.9 million in 1993 and to 119.9 million in 1994.
Similarly, density (in train-km per kilometre of track) increased from 112.5 million in 1990 to
113.8 million in 1992, dropping back again to 111.9 million in 1993 and 110.1 million in 1994.
Passenger transport
International rail passenger transport, which had increased until 1992, showed a marked dropfrom 1992 to 1994. However, even the most pessimistic scenarios forecast growth, with rail’s sharein overall passenger transport increasing by between 13 and 18 per cent by 2015.
Freight transport
Rail freight transport fell in the period 1990-93, chiefly due to a large drop in north-south transit
traffic. However, it picked up again in 1994.
Transalpine traffic tonnage carried by rail and combined transport increased over the period
1992-94 by 2.3 and 2.2 per cent, respectively.
In 1981, rail and road carried substantially the same total flows in tonne-km. Since then, rail’s
share has dropped by 40 per cent, but according to the two scenarios that assume stricter
environmental policies (A2 and I2) there will bee a return of growth. However, the A1 and I1
scenarios suggest that the current decline in rail freight traffic will continue.

360

From 1994 to 1995, total rail and road traffic through the Swiss Alps increased by 3 per cent.
The traffic carried by rail (combined transport and complete trainloads) increased by 1 per cent, as
opposed to 6 per cent by road. Even so, rail still carried 73 per cent of the total tonnage of freightcrossing the Swiss Alps in 1995, i.e. 17.9 million tonnes.
Combined traffic showed an increase of around 5 per cent in 1995, a much smaller increase thanin the previous year, when it had been boosted by the opening of the Saint Gothard piggy-back link.
In 1995, conventional traffic carried (complete trainloads) showed virtually no change from
1994.

Breakdown of freight traffic through the Alps
Million tonnes net, rounded for each type
1993
Combined traffic
Complete trainloads
Total rail
Total rail and road

6.17
9.79
15.95
21.54

Annualvariation
18 %
8%
12 %
11 %

1994
7.30
10.53
17.83
23.99

Annualvariation
5%
-1 %
1%
3%

1995
7.65
10.43
18.08
24.60

Source: CFF.

Road traffic
Passenger transport
Overall traffic trends in Switzerland show a decline in private transport by road in 1993, no
doubt due to the recession and higher fuel taxes. However, from 1990 to 1993, overall private car
traffic (domestic, entries/exits and transit) showed an increase of 3.4 per cent. The forecasts appear to
confirm this trend, as private road transport is expected to show a lower growth rate than other public
transport modes.
Freight transport
In the course of the period 1990-93, road freight traffic figures trended as follows:− + 2.5 per cent for light goods vehicles (delivery vans);− - 0.4 per cent for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs).
In the case of the latter, the recession really began to bite in 1992.
Whereas road freight traffic fell over the period 1990-93, transit traffic increased substantially.
Indeed, transalpine traffic increased -- in terms of tonnage carried -- by 19.6 per cent over the period
1992 and 1994. In 1995, road traffic through the Alps increased by 6 per cent and carried 27 per centof the total freight tonnage crossing the Swiss Alps.

361

Over the same period and in the same areas, the number of HGVs increased from 847 000 to
986 000, i.e. by 14 per cent. Transit traffic through Switzerland accounted for over half of thesevehicles (530 000).
Between 1994 and 1995, border-to-border transit grew by 13 per cent as in 1993 and 1994.
However, for freight transit traffic alone, tonnage was up by 26 per cent. The forecasts confirm thistrend: overall road freight transit traffic (light goods vehicles and HGVs together) is expected to
double from 5.4 billion vehicle-km to 10 billion in 2015. Meanwhile, total road traffic -- domestic
plus inbound/outbound traffic -- showed no change over the period 1994-1995.
The detailed trends for transalpine vehicle flows in 1995 were as follows:− the number of HGVs on roads to Saint Gothard increased by 8 per cent;− the number of HGVs on roads to the Grand Saint Bernard, Simplon and San Bernardino
passes fell by 2 per cent;− the average number of HGVs crossing the Swiss Alps per working day was 3 961, of which
83 per cent crossed via the Saint Gothard pass.
− 64 per cent of HGVs crossing the Swiss Alps were foreign-registered vehicles, as against
49 per cent in 1981 (the first year after the opening of the Saint Gothard tunnel). The
proportion of foreign-registered vehicles taking the Saint Gothard road tunnel increased from
42 per cent in 1981 to 66 per cent in 1995.

Trends in HGV traffic by year (values rounded for each category)
Type oftraffic
TransitSaint-Gothard
Other**
Total
Grand Saint Bernard Transit+ Simplon
Other**+ San Bernardino
Total
Transit
Total
Other**
Total
Alpine crossing

1993
369 000
368 000
736 000
47 000123 000
170 000
415 000
491 000
906 000

Annualvariation
15 %
4%
10 %
-5 %
9%
5%
13 %
5%
9%

* Estimated transit figures.
**Other = Domestic plus inbound/outbound traffic.
Source: DFTCE Transport Studies Service, General Secretariat.

362

1994
424 000
383 000
807 000
44 000134 000
179 000
468 000
517 000
985 000

Annualvariation
14 %
1%
8%
7%
-5 %
-2 %
13 %
0%
6%

1995*
483 000
388 000
871 000
47 000127 000
175 000
530 000
516 000
1 046 000

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects

Railway infrastructure
On the three priority rail corridors of interest to Switzerland, a number of measures to increase
infrastructure capacity have been taken. They are all at different stages:− Laying of a second track on the Loetschberg line, completed in 1992.
− Increasing throughput on the St-Gothard line (first piggy-back rail corridor, the Basel-BrugErstfeld-Lugano-Chiasso line), completed in 1994.
− Berne-Mattstetten (Grauholz) diversion, completed in 1995.
− New double track layout on the Gorgier-Onnens line (Bienne-Geneva corridor), to be brought
into service in 1999-2000. Work is under way as part of the first stage of the Rail 2000
project. After the renovation of the line, trains will be able to run at speeds of 180 km/h. The
work will cost a total of SF 420 million.
− Upgrading of the Aarau-Rupperswil line to four tracks, to be brought into service in 1997.
− The Adler tunnel, on the second Muttenz-Liestal line, to be brought into service in 2001.
− The new Zurich-Thalwil high-speed line, to be brought into service in 2001.
− The new Rothrist-Mattstetten high-speed line, to be brought into service in 2003-2005. This
will be a two-track line designed for running speeds of 200 km/h. Work has started as part of
the first stage of the Rail 2000 project at a cost of SF 1.46 million.
− The Loetschberg base tunnel, which is likely to be brought into service in 2004. This will
involve boring a tunnel 33 km long. A start has been made on some of the work. The costs
for the baseline option are expected to total SF 4.25 million (but may be lower if single trackis used for part of the route).
− The Saint Gothard base tunnel (57 km) and the Monte Ceneri base tunnel (12.7 km), to bebrought into service in 2006. Baseline costs are an estimated SF 9.5 million.
The first stage of Rail 2000 is scheduled for completion in 2005.

Road infrastructure
Of the major motorway corridors designated under the TEN scheme, some sections in
Switzerland are under construction:− National road A1: the Faoug-Payern section (E25) is to be opened to traffic by the end of
1996.
363

− National road A1: the opening of the entire Morat-Yverdon section will complete theSt. Margrethen-Zurich-Berne-Geneva motorway. It is to be opened to traffic in 2001. Total
costs for this section are estimated at SF 2.700 billion. The opening in 2001 will also
complete the second Berne-Lausanne motorway link.
− National road A3: the opening to traffic of the Frich-Birrfeld section (E1) which completes
the second Basel-Zurich motorway link, brought into service in mid-1996. This is part of thenorth-south Basel-Zurich-Coire-San Bernardino-Bellinzone corridor. The total costs for thissection are estimated at SF 1.2 billion.
− National Road A4: opening to traffic of the Winterthour-Schaffhouse (E41) section at the endof 1996 completes the Zurich-Stuttgart express road link. Total costs amounted to SF 850
million.
− National roads A4 and A20: the (partial) opening to traffic of the Zurich West bypass and the
Uetliberg and Knonau (E41) branch roads in 2007 will complete the Basel-Coire (N3) routeand the Schaffhouse-Uri-Tessin (Saint Gothard route). The projected costs for this section are
SF 4.1 billion.
− National road A2: the north Basel bypass which links France’s A36 motorway with
Switzerland’s A2 and A3 motorways is under construction. It is likely to be brought into
service in 2009. The work will cost approximately SF 1.2 billion.
With the exception of Zurich’s urban motorways and the Bienne (Biel) motorway bypass, theSwiss national road network, as designated by Parliament, should be completed by 2012.

Question 3: Capacity problems
The explanatory report on the Federal bill concerning a distance/weight-based tax on HGVs
(19 June 1995) gives data on external and environmental and accident costs and on the externalbenefits of HGV traffic. The studies conducted in this area show that HGVs over 3.5 tonnes
generated the following external costs in 1993:− accidents, SF 18 million;− damage to buildings, SF 312 million;− noise, SF 257 million.
These SF 590 million do not even account for all external costs. Others which should befactored in are those to health, external costs resulting from damage to crops, and the effect on
climate. Studies are being conducted to establish the health costs.
Surveys have shown that the external benefits of road traffic are negligible and, furthermore, thatthe actors involved do all they can to internalise them and to foist external costs onto the government(externalisation).

364

If the unrecovered costs of infrastructure are factored in, some SF 160 million according tostudies conducted from 1988 to 1992, the total rises to SF 750 million, which could be recouped fromtraffic through charges.

Question 4: Measures

Rail transport
As regards transport planning, two decisions appear crucial:− the decision of 6 December 1987 to implement the Rail 2000 project;− above all, the referendum of 27 September 1992 approving the new transalpine line (theNFLA).
The decisive factor in this project was the fact that volume of road and rail traffic via the Swiss
Alpine passes (15 million tonnes) could triple over the period 1993-2015. Of course, maximum
growth would be attained only if all freight flows through the Alps continued to take the shortest
route, i.e. through Switzerland, and of course, the NFLA could divert some of the road traffic thatuses passes in other countries to the Swiss passes.

Road transport
As regards transport policy, the approval of the decision to convert current HGV charges to acharge based on performance (kilometres travelled and vehicle weight) and the approval of the article
in the constitution on the protection of the Alps voted in February 1994 warrant mention. Together,
they give the green light for the gradual introduction of a transport system based on “real costs”.
For the Swiss authorities, the introduction of a fee based on the performance achieved should
also improve competition conditions between rail and road.
The Federal Law of 17 June 1994 on road transit traffic in the Alps (LTRA), specifies thecorridors that are open to this type of traffic and addresses capacity problems. Under Article 2 of thelaw, the only roads open to transit traffic in the alpine region are:−−−−the Thusis-Bellinzone north section of the San Bernardino road;the Amsteg-Göshenen-Airolo-Bellinzone north section of the Gothard road;the Brigue-Gondo/Zwischbergen (border) section of the Simplon road;the Sembrancher-north tunnel portal section of the Grand Saint-Bernard road.

Article 3 prohibits any increase in capacity on transit roads, i.e. no new lanes are to be addedeven on existing roads. However, under Article 4, the construction of urban bypasses is allowed.

365

TURKEY
Area: 780 000 km²
Population: 58 687 000

The seventh transport plan covers the period 1995-99. The general aim of these plans is todevelop a “healthy” transport system, increase the sector’s productivity, rationalise the use of existing
resources as far as possible, and allow the national economy to function smoothly.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Transport plans are drawn up on the basis of freight and passenger traffic forecasts and takeaccount of future trends in a number of parameters (population growth, GNP, the modal split, andinfrastructure investment programmes).
Results for freight and passenger traffic are set out below.

Rail traffic
The seventh five-year plan is predicated on an annual growth rate for domestic rail freight trafficof 10.9 per cent per year (the previous plan anticipated growth of only 8.9 per cent). On this basis,domestic freight traffic should account for 14.8 billion tonne-km by the end of the period (1 billion
tonne-km more than previously predicted). Rail’s share of the modal split for freight transport is notexpected to exceed 10 per cent between 1995 and 1999, whereas four years’ previously the rail share
was expected to be 11.7 per cent.
According to the forecasts, rail traffic in Turkey will total 5.1 billion passenger-km and14.75 million tonne-km by the year 2000. Considering the traffic volume expected in 1997, it seems
difficult to achieve the forecasts made for 2000.

367

Rail traffic trends, 1989-97

Number of passengers(thousands)
Suburbs
Main lines
International
Total
Passenger-kilometres(millions)
Suburbs
Main lines
International
Total
Freight traffic
Tonnes (thousands)
T-km (millions)

1996(estimated)

1997(forecasts)

80 98323 522130
104 635

80 00021 800200
102 000

100 000
23 300200
123 00

2 394
3 882
59
6 335

2 097
3 661
39
5 797

2 064
3 526
60
5 650

2 580
3 770
60
6 410

14 6758 215

15 2888 516

15 800
9 138

16 400
9 440

1989

1994

1995

122 886
23 364109
146 359

92 49526 842
196
119 533

3 163
3 648
33
6 844
13 146
7 571

Road transport
The road sector currently accounts for 95 per cent of domestic transport. According to forecasts,
road transport will retain this high share, as its operating costs are lower than those of other modes.
As the table below shows, road traffic fell in 1994 as a result of decisions taken on 5 April 1994.
These decisions have not been disclosed. Despite this fact, road’s share of total domestic traffic is
still 95 per cent. Turkish transport policy aims to improve these results, both in passenger and freightsectors.

Road traffic trends in the passenger and freight sectors, 1993-96
Millions

1993
1994
1995
1996 (forecasts)

Tonne-km
97 84395 020112 515118 140

Passenger-km
146 029
140 743
155 202167 618

Air transport
After a sharp drop in domestic air traffic between 1990 and 1991, the air transport market now
seems to be booming. Over five years, the number of air passengers doubled.

368

Domestic air traffic trends, 1989-95
Passengers
2 339 000
2 595 000
1 788 000
2 418 000
3 422 064
4 189 886
4 942 014

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Passenger-km
1 087 000 000
1 213 000 000
846 000 000
1 148 000 000
1 734 000 000
2 278 000 000
2 691 587 642

Tonnes17 05220 99113 72918 58326 10327 34232 183Tonne-km
96 000 000
108 000 000
76 000 000
103 000 000
154 000 000
199 000 000
234 520 552

Pipelines
Oil and natural gas trends, 1985-95

Domestic
Crude*(million t-km)
Natural gas
3(million m )International(transit)
Crude***(million t-km)

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1 248

1 669

2 437

2 470

2 676

2 582 3 126

3 111

3 151

2 999

2 972

515

1 182

3 107

3 362 4 098

4 467

4 977 5 341** 6 710**

30 700 30 800 37 947 50 383 53 144 29 274*

Total volume of crude oil transported via the Batman-Dörtyol, Ceyhan-Kirikkale and Selmo-Batman
pipelines.
** The volume forecasts for 1994 and 1995 also include NLG (natural liquefied gas) transported by tanker(377 million m³ and 1125 million m³ respectively).
*** The figures shown are for Iraqi oil transported via the pipeline between Iraq and Turkey. This traffic ceasedin August 1990.

Question 2: Present situation as regards infrastructure and projects for investment

Road infrastructure
The Turkish road network is 60 999 km long. In 1995, the motorway network was 1 246 kmlong and by the end of the year, 530 km motorway were under construction.

369

Motorway construction
Kilometres
1996
209
134

Planned
Opened

1997
321
n.a.

In 1980, roads were constructed to tolerate a load of 8 tonnes/axle, but the present requirement is
13 tonnes, so that roads built to the earlier specifications no longer meet the standards. The new plan
therefore seeks to improve the quality of existing roadways, while taking account of problems related
to dimensions, rather than to invest in building new roads.
The target is to bring national and provincial roads up to the new standards with the help of loans
from the World Bank. This means rehabilitating a large number of roads so that ultimately all
national roads and 73 per cent of provincial roads receive a bituminous surface.

The road network, by type of surfacing

1992

1993

1994

1995

Type of road
Motorways
National roads
Provincial roads
Total
Motorways
National roads
Provincial roads
Total
Motorways
National roads
Provincial roads
Total
Motorways
National roads
Provincial roads
Total

Asphalt
826
29 27419 47149 571
1 070
29 61720 07650 763
1 167
29 68620 69551 5481 246
29 68321 00151 930Stabilised

EarthPrimitive

1 535
6 581
8 116

178
1 395
1 573

448
960
1 408

1 263
6 089
7 352

128
1 297
1 425

416
884
1 300

1 311
5 583
6 894

69
1 212
1 281

323
953
1 276

Total
826
31 43528 40760 6681 070
31 42428 34660 8401 167
31 38928 44360 999

1 269
5 404
6 673

82
1 248
1 330

388
924
1 312

1 246
31 42261 245The main motorway projects are located:−−−around Ankara, in the direction of Istanbul and Greece;
near Izmir, heading southwards down the Aegean coast;near the Syrian border, linking the Mediterranean towns of Pozanti, Mersin, Adana,
Gaziantep and Antalya (on the border).

370

Motorway projects identified in the 1995 investment programme
Name of projectBala-Kulu
Antalya-Yayladagi
Ulukisla-Pozanti(includes a bypass
around Ulukisla)
Ankara-KirikkaleDerince
Zana-Erbaa bridge
Erbaa-Resadiye
Pülümür-Askale
Askale-Eszurum
Diyadin-Gürbulk
Birecik-SanliurfaCizre-Habur, border

Length
(km)
68
56
47

Cost
(million LT)
282 240592 100
5 000 000

Dates

Status

1993-1996
1977-1997
1996-2000

Open to tenders
Open to tenders
Will be opened to tenders

127

687 400

1996-1998

Open to tenders

60
73
97
65
76
444

736 960
620 760
1 243 600
838 600
435 960
3 300 000

1992-1996
1992-1996
1986-1996
1993-1996
1993-1996
1996-2000

Open to tenders
Open to tenders
Open to tenders
Open to tenders
Open to tenders
Will be opened to tenders

Part of the plan to modernise the network also involves connecting villages to the national andprovincial road network. The private sector is expected to play a large role in the construction of newroads.

Railway infrastructure
The existing rail network comprises 10 466 km of line (8 549 km of main lines and 1 917 km of
secondary lines).
Some data give an account of the current railway infrastructure capacity, particularly as far aselectrified and non electrified tracks are concerned (1995 figures).

State of the rail network, 1995
Length in km
Type of line
Main lines
Secondary lines
Total

Electrified
939
154
1 093

Non-electrified
7 610
1 763
9 373

Total length
8 549
1 917
10 466

The transport plan includes the renewal of 2 090 km of track, bringing the total length ofelectrified line to 2 956 km and the length of line equipped with the signalling system to 4 216 km by
the end of the period 1996-2000.

371

During this period, 171 km of line will be upgraded to double track (44 km between Yenice andMersin, and 127 km between Incirlik, Toprakkale and Iskenderun).
For the period 1997-2001, a number of planned railway infrastructure projects should improve
the average speed of freight traffic on the Turkish territory:−

projects for new lines:• Istanbul-Bosphorus: estimated cost, $637 million;• extension Kars-Tblisi: estimated cost, $400 million;• rail link Lake Van: estimated cost, $450 million;• rail section Ankara-Sivas: estimated cost $600 million.

−

upgrading of existing lines:• Ankara-Istanbul rail link: estimated cost, $240 million.

−

upgrading projects:• repair of 1 796 km of track;• welding of 100 000 rails;• improvement of signalling on 1 854 km of track;• electrification of 2 068 km of track.

Question 3: Capacity problems
Road transport
In 1994, the Turkish motorised vehicle fleet consisted of:−−−−

3.23 million private cars;
90 000 buses;
719 000 lorries;
124 000 other vehicles;

for a total of approximately 4.16 million vehicles.
Vehicles counts were carried out in 1995 on UN route E. The highest volume of traffic was
obviously in and around Istanbul. On average, 177 920 vehicles cross the Bosphorus bridge each day,a 10 per cent increase over the previous year. Average daily traffic on the Fatih Sultan Mehmet
bridge is 101 310 vehicles.
Although not on a scale comparable with Istanbul, traffic volume is also high along the
Bulgarian border and on the Istanbul-Bolu-Ankara-Adana route.

372

Average daily traffic on major motorways, national roads and bridges, 1995
1.

Edirne-Istanbul-Ankara Motorway:
Section
Edirne-Havsa
Havsa-Babaeski
Babaeski-Luleburgaz
Luleburgaz-Saray
Saray-çorlu
çorlu-Kinali 1
Kinali 1-Silivri 1
Silivri 1-Selimpasa
Kinali-Selimpasa
Selimpasa-çatalcaçatalca-Hadimköy
Hadimköy-Avcilar
Avcilar-Mahmutbeyçamilca-Kurtköy
Kurtköy-Sekerpinar
Sekerpinar-Gebze
Gebze-Izmit
Izmit-Adapazan
Adapazan-Akyazi
Akyazi-Düzce
Düzce-Kaynasli
Bolu-çaydurtçaydurt-Gerede
Gerede-Pelitcik
Pelitcik-çeltikciçeltikci-Mürted

2.

Length (km)
19.9
27.2
24.4
28.8
202
30.8
6.8
12.1
18.9
13.4
12.6
6.0
11.4
24.8
9.4
10.0
35.3
38.4
15.8
60.3
21.0
19.0
38.8
46.3
15.7
44.3

Average daily traffic
2 199
2 457
3 304
4 647
5 221
6 188
10 961
10 961
10 961
13 67516 99225 04533 69630 65728 23219 84419 856
13 034
7 828
7 828
6 882
3 786
5 151
3 708
3 804
3 957

Length (km)
12.2
9.7
11.0
10.4
17.0

Average daily traffic
13 60211 365
9 559
8 028
7 599

Izmir-Alaçati motorway
SectionSehitlik-Seferihisar
Seferihisar-Urfa
Urfa-Karaburun
Karaburun-Zeytinler
Zeytinler-Alaçati

373

3.

Izmir-Aydin motorway (Izmir-Tahtali section)
SectionIsikkent-Tahtaliçay
Tahtaliçay-Torbali
Torbali-Belevi

4.

Length (km)
11.5
13.5
21.5

Average daily traffic
8 006
8 764
8 222

Pozanti-Tarsus-Adana-Gaziantep motorway
SectionPozanti-Tarsus
Tarsus-Adana
Adana-Ceyhan
Toprakkale-Bahçe
Bahçe-Gaziantep

Length (km)
63.4
19.0
61.5
41.5
36.1

Average daily traffic
6 919
6 262
5 047
2 588
1 700

Rail transport
On the UN international routes (see annex map), two sections stand out owing to the highnumber of trains per day (over 160):−−

the H.Pasa-Gebze section (44 km in Asia);
the Halkali-Istanbul section (28 km in Europe).

Their load factors are 91 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively.
The 87 km Gebze-Arifiye section has a 63 per cent load factor with 58 trains per day.
Two other sections have 100 per cent load factors:−−Çetinkaya-Malatya (140 km between Sivas and Malatya);Malatya-Narli (181 km towards the Syrian border).

Capacity of the rail network between 1994 and May 1996

SectionHalkali-Sirkeci
H.Psas-IemitçetinkayaMalatya
Malatya-Narli

Maximum capacity
train/dayPresent rail freighttraffic train/day

178
178

8
6

Present railpassenger traffic
train/day
167
520

32

28

2

27

24

4

374

Question 4 : Measures
The principal aim of Turkish transport policy is to modernise transport networks and operations,in terms of organisational structures and management techniques, and to introduce commercial
measures designed to make particular modes more attractive (e.g. the railways and ports for transit
traffic).
Pricing policy is also concerned with procedures involving imports delivered f.o.b. so thatnational vessels can benefit from the import trade as much as possible.
In the light of the most recent traffic data, the present plan will place greater emphasis on
measures to promote the transfer of both goods and passengers from the road to the railway.

Road transport
In addition to infrastructure investment, the policy to modernise the road network covers
maintenance and repair services.
A system of direct and indirect taxes will be introduced so that users contribute more toinvestment.
In addition, measures will be taken to protect the environment and curb pollutant emissions.

Rail transport
The policy to modernise the railway has a number of aims, notably to:−−−promote the use of containers and develop a rapid and reliable integrated transport system;
adapt rail transport to market requirements, with greater emphasis on meeting customers’
needs;
introduce more modern management techniques (involving the recruitment of more qualified
staff).

In order to achieve these aims, a strategy has been defined for restructuring the national railway
company (TCDD). The key priorities are to:−−−−reduce TCDD’s financial losses;
improve the efficiency of the services provided;
improve management of marketing and sales;
adapt TCDD’s policies to market requirements.

375

By the end of the period covered by the strategy, studies should have been completed on thefollowing topics:−−−−a restructuring programme;
railway law;
contractual arrangements between TCDD and the Turkish government;
implementation of the strategy.

The strategy will also seek to identify ways of improving combined transport throughreorganisation and the establishment of rules and management procedures for this sector.

376

Investment plans in rail infrastructure

N°
1

2

3

377

4

5

Name of the project
Istanbul-Bosphorus rail tunnel

Rail extension Kars-Tblisi

Upgrading Ankara-Istanbul link

New line Ankara-Sivas

New line Lake Van

Objective
Control bottlenecks in the ferrylines through the Bosphorus andincrease operating speed
Link Turkish rail network with
Georgian network to speed up
European and Asian rail link
Improve efficiency in order tospeed up traffic and improve
quality of services
Reduce travel time between
Ankara and Sivas (importanttransit route)
Control bottlenecks at the Lake
Van ferry crossing, to improve thespeed of operations

Planning
starting
closing
date
date

Expected cost

1996

2000

$637 million

1996

2000

$400 million

1996

1999

$240 million

1997

1999

$600 million

1997

2001

$450 million

UNITED KINGDOM
Area: 241 000 km²
Population: 58 600 000

For the United Kingdom, information relating to rail traffic and strategic developments in thismode of transport is very complete. With regard to road transport, however, the information provided
only covers current and forecast traffic levels.

Question 1: Future trends in passenger and freight traffic
Rail traffic
Passenger traffic
Current traffic levels
The tables given below indicate a decline in the number of passenger journeys and the distances
travelled by rail (main-line, urban and suburban services) over the period 1990-91/1995-96. This
trend broadly reflects current economic conditions. Both the number of trips and the distances
travelled picked up in 1995-96.

Trips on all rail networks, 1990-96
Million trips

All tickets

1990-91762.4

1991-92740.8

1992-93744.8

1993-94713.2

1994-95
702.2

1995-96718.7

1993-9430.4

1994-95
28.7

1995-9630.0

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 1996.

Rail traffic, 1990-96
Billion passenger-km

All tickets

1990-91
33.2

1991-92
32.5

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 1996.

379

1992-93
31.7

The number of journeys made is not necessarily representative of the revenue earned, however,since business trips are often longer and usually generate higher fare yields. Real receipts for all
passenger rail networks are shown in the table below.

Receipts from passenger ticket sales, 1990-96
Million pounds, 1995-96 prices

All tickets

1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96
2445.9 2365.4 2310.5 2286.4 2224.0 2379.4

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 1996.

Overall passenger receipts followed a downward trend over the period 1990-91 to 1994-95.
Ticket sales declined sharply between 1990-91 and 1991-92 as a result of the economic recession. In
1994-95, on the other hand, yields were affected by industrial action. Fare yields recovered
significantly in 1995-96, with ticket sales rising to a level close to that recorded in 1991 -92.
The Channel Tunnel was fully opened to passenger traffic in 1994. In 1995 it carried over
7 million passengers on Eurostar and Passenger Shuttle services.
Traffic forecasts
The principal external factors influencing future trends in passenger traffic and thus ticket salesare:− economic growth;− employment levels in London;− ticket prices.
In addition, privatisation of the railways is expected to have a number of positive impacts, suchas operational and marketing innovations and stronger incentives to use rail, which will increase thenumber of tickets sold. Indeed, the privatised rail industry has already begun to identify new service
opportunities. When it issued its flotation prospectus, Railtrack estimated that passenger rail travel
would grow at an annual rate of around 2 per cent. However, the Rail Department of the UK Ministryof Transport does not issue data of this nature.
Freight traffic
Current traffic levels
Trends in the movement of freight, by commodity, in the rail sector are illustrated in the tablebelow. Freight traffic followed the same downward trend observed in the passenger sector,
particularly in traditionally strong markets for rail such as coal traffic (down 34 per cent between
1990-91 and 1994-95). It is not possible to say whether freight traffic recovered in the same way as
passenger traffic over the period 1995-96 as data for this period are not yet available. The only two
types of rail freight whose levels had recovered by 1994-95 were building materials and other traffic.
However, these were the two types of freight which had been least affected by the decline in rail380

traffic in that the volume of building materials traffic declined by merely 7.4 per cent throughout theperiod, while other traffic remained stable.

Rail freight traffic by commodity
Billion tonne-kilometres
Commodity
Coal
Metal
Building materials
Oil and petroleum
Other traffic
All traffic

1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95
5.0
5.0
5.4
3.9
3.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
3.8
3.8
3.3
3.5
3.8
16.0
15.3
15.5
13.8
13.0

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 1996.

The Channel Tunnel carried 4 million tonnes of through-train freight and 400 000 freightvehicles on the Freight Shuttle.
Traffic forecasts
Overall activity in the freight market correlates closely with the level of GDP but is also linked
to other factors. The volume of rail freight is closely linked to output from heavy industry, a sector
on which rail has traditionally been heavily dependent. In view of this link, the current decline inheavy industry has led to a significant reduction in rail traffic.
In addition, the rail sector is also facing fierce competition from road haulage. Now that the rail
sector is largely privatised, it is thought that the commercial operators will reverse this decline andcommitments have already been made for new rolling stock orders.
Railtrack expects to see a further decline in the carriage by rail of bulk industrial materials(including coal), but believes that this decline can be offset by strong growth in its share in othermarket segments such as European inter-modal transport activities and Channel Tunnel freight traffic.

Road traffic
The national road traffic forecasts apply to the entire UK road network. They have been
produced for the period for which the road plans are evaluated, i.e. 30 years. They serve as a basis forthe planning, routing and construction of main roads. The latest forecasts date from 1988-89 and are
currently being updated.
The forecasts calculated in 1989 are based on assumptions regarding economic growth and therate of increase of fuel prices. The main determinant of traffic growth is income, i.e. GDP; the priceof fuel has less influence. Since future levels of these variables cannot be given with any precision,
the traffic forecasts have been presented in each case as a range, with a minimum and a maximum.

381

Both possibilities are considered to be equally probable and the evaluation is therefore based on two
scenarios.
The levels used in the forecasts are as follows:% growth comparedwith 1995
GDP
Fuel prices

By theyear 2000
10-17 %
6-16 %

By theyear 2025
75-152 %19-29 %

Expected annual
rate of growth
EconomyPopulation

Until
2000
1%

Until
2025
2-3 %
<1 %

Demographic trends also have a major impact on traffic growth. Population growth is expected
to be 1 per cent a year until the year 2000 and thereafter insignificant.
The forecasts are based on traffic levels observed in 1988 and take account of trends in traffic,
car ownership and use, road freight and the trends observed over the past 30 years. The forecasts are
therefore for traffic growth rates, which can be used to calculate long-term trends but which are notnecessarily valid for shorter periods. According to these forecasts, traffic levels are expected to riseas follows:% growth compared with 1994
Total traffic

By the year 2000
11-18%

By the year 2025
58-92%In 1994, overall road traffic amounted to 417.8 billion vehicle-km, broken down as follows:
−
−
−
−
−

82.6 per cent private cars;
9.2 per cent light goods vehicles;
4.3 per cent lorries (2 and 3 axles);
2.8 per cent lorries (4 axles and over);1.1 per cent buses and coaches.

Trends in overall road traffic (excluding motorcycles), 1994-2025

1994
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025

Low growthBillion veh-km
418
426
464
503
542
582
620
660

Index
100
102
111
121
130
139
148
160
382

High growthBillion veh-km
418
431
495
558
621
682
744
804

Index
100
103
118
134
149
163
178
192

It should be recalled that these forecasts were made for the long term and that the intermediate
results, for the short and medium terms, are not necessarily valid or applicable as such. The forecasts
for total traffic are in fact obtained by combining the individual calculations for cars, coaches, lightgoods vehicles and lorries. Moreover, if the forecasts are compared with those made in 1988, the two
forecasts for the same period of study, i.e. from 1995 to 2025, have been significantly modified.
Under the low-growth assumption, the traffic levels forecast for the period 1995-2025 have beenadjusted upward by 11 per cent compared with the levels forecast in 1988. The indices have beenrevised downward by 13 per cent compared with those forecast in 1988. For the high-growth
assumption, the traffic levels forecast in 1994 are slightly higher than those forecast in 1988, althoughless so than the forecasts based on the low-growth assumption, and amount to an increase of 2-3 percent. The annual indices are 20 per cent lower than those calculated in 1988.
Passenger traffic
Forecasting methods
Forecasts for car traffic are made up of two elements: forecasts of household car-ownershiprates and forecasts of car use (average annual kilometrage). Several factors influence growth in these
two elements. Among them, those used for the forecasts include:
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

individual and household income;purchase cost;
operating cost;
travel needs depending on the place of residence;road quality;
work and leisure activities;
availability and cost of parking;quality and availability of public transport;
evolution of individual expectations and preferences vis-à-vis the car;number of drivers in the household.

Among the demographic factors, the distribution of the population and the size and number ofhouseholds are recognised as also having a particularly strong influence on changes in demand.
Private car traffic
Car ownership has continued to increase in all countries. In 1992, the highest car ownership rate
was reported in the United States with 573 cars per 1 000 inhabitants; in that year, the rate in the
United Kingdom was 378 cars per 1 000 inhabitants. The other European Union countries with ahigher car ownership rate were:− France with 418 cars;− Germany with 494 cars;− Italy with 487 cars.
No country has as yet reached the saturation level, which is estimated at 90 per cent of the
population of driving age owning a car. On this basis, the saturation level would correspond to an
ownership level of 650 cars per 1 000 inhabitants.

383

Car ownership growth forecasts are primarily aimed at establishing the date at which thesaturation level will be reached. To this end, the models need to address factors which have a major
impact on the car ownership levels of households, such as:
−
−
−
−
−

per capita income;growth in vehicle costs (maintenance);
population growth and characteristics;
degree of road saturation;a residual factor (the temporal trend) covering the other influences which are not identifiable
individually.

The forecasts made in 1989 were obtained by taking the average results of two models. The firstmodel applied to the household, which was considered as the decision-making unit. It used
instantaneous cross-sectional data and times series taken from the Family Expenditure Surveys from1965 to 1986. This model simultaneously integrates the effects of income and of time. The temporal
trend is represented by the average number of driving licences per adult over the country as a whole.
Over the period for which the model was calibrated, this term increased almost linearly. Over the
next few years, the rate of growth is expected to decline, given that there should be fewer young
adults and hence fewer new drivers.
The second model used cross-sectional data taken from the National Survey of 1985-86 and wasaimed at determining the effect of income. It is a regression model (extrapolatory model) in which
car ownership is taken as a function of income, the cost of car use and the temporal trend. It is basedon the assumption that car ownership reaches saturation level (unlike the first model).
The main difference between the forecasts produced by these two models lies in their estimationof the temporal trend. As there is no way of distinguishing the predictive power of either of the twomodels, the mean of the results of each model has been taken. The realism of these results has beenverified on the basis of international experience, notably by comparing income elasticities in different
industrialised countries.

Trend in car ownership rates (per 1 000 inhabitants), 1994-2025
Low growth
1994
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025

High growth
375

382
411
438
463
487
508
529

385
428
467
501
530
557
579

According to these forecasts, the car ownership rate should increase by 10 to 14 per centbetween 1994 and 2000 and by 41 to 54 per cent up to the year 2025. These results are well below
those forecast for other countries. In addition, the high-growth scenario has been revised downwards
384

compared with the 1988 forecasts. The car ownership rates forecast above amount to only 95 per centof the levels calculated in the 1988 study. In contrast, the results obtained in 1988 for the low-growthscenario remain valid.
The main determinants of car use (expressed as annual kilometrage per car) are income and theprice of fuel. The elasticities are calculated on the basis of analyses of the 1985-86 surveys andobservation of the effect of the increases in real fuel prices between 1974 and 1977 and between 1978
and 1982. The result is that the annual kilometrage per car is expected to increase by between 0 and
2 per cent by the year 2000 and between 8 and 17 per cent by the year 2025.
The forecasts of traffic in vehicle-kilometres are in fact a combination of the preceding forecastsof car ownership, car use, population growth, etc. They indicate that car traffic will grow by 11 to
19 per cent until the year 2000 and then by 57 to 87 per cent by the year 2025 compared with the level
recorded in 1994.

Forecast growth in private car traffic (in vehicle-kilometres)
Index 100 = 1994
Low growth
1994
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025

High growth
100

102
111
121
130
139
148
157

103
119
134
148
161
174
187

Bus and coach traffic
Buses and coaches account for around only 1 per cent of total vehicle-km. In recent years, theiruse has nonetheless increased, probably due to the deregulation of this segment of the transport
market. However, there is no clear indication at present that this growth is part of a long-term trend.
On the contrary, several factors would seem to indicate that the total kilometrage covered by this typeof vehicle will remain constant until 2025. According to forecasts, bus and coach traffic levels willremain unchanged between 1994 and 2025, regardless of the scenario (low growth versus highgrowth).
Freight traffic
Current freight traffic levels
UK statistics distinguish between lorries and light goods vehicles. Total goods vehicle traffic
accounts for only 7.1 per cent of all road traffic expressed in vehicle-km.

385

Modal split in 1994

Road
Rail
Waterways
Pipeline

Traffic in billion t-km Percentage market share
144
65
13
6
52
24
12
5

At present, there is no indication that road’s market share of the past few years is likely todecline.
Traffic forecasts
The main determinant of growth in freight traffic is the growth rate of GDP. The forecasts havetherefore been calculated on the basis of an elasticity of tonne-km with respect to GDP, with theresulting trend being applied to the modal split. These two variables were deduced from theobservation of past trends.
A detailed breakdown of tonne-km by category of freight cannot be used for two reasons. First,
it is not easy to make such breakdowns for many goods which are hard to classify and forconsignments consisting of several types of good. Second, no data are available on the price orservice quality of the different modes of transport. What is more, consumption patterns change,
because products (like consumption habits) change. Therefore, many factors of a technological,
commercial and locational nature strongly influence transport.
While it cannot be denied that the Channel Tunnel will improve prospects for growth in rail
freight services, it is also clear that rail will not be able to challenge the supremacy of the road modefor domestic flows. The rules of the single market in Europe will also have an impact on future
growth in road traffic. The implications of these developments have been taken into account in GDP
forecasts.
Past experience gives no reason to suppose that the share of transport in GDP might fall.
Although the trend in final household consumption is likely to become more concentrated on lightand expensive goods (notably electronics), higher standards of living will at the same time require
additional flows of cheap and heavy goods such as building materials and leisure equipment andfacilities. For all these reasons, the tonne-km elasticity with respect to GDP for the forecast period istaken as unity.
On the basis of these forecasts, the UK authorities have decided to determine how this volume oftraffic would be split in coming years between the different types of vehicle used for freight transport
and to forecast the implications in terms of flows (vehicle-km). The results indicated that a very large
share of the expected growth in road haulage would concern the heaviest categories of vehicle (fouraxles and over), whose traffic would increase by between 15 and 25 per cent by the year 2000 and
between 97 and 195 per cent by the year 2025 (compared with 1994), amounting to almost twice thetotal lorry traffic over the same period.
Over the past few years the number of light goods vehicles has very closely matched the trend in
GDP growth, and is likely to continue to do so in the future. This assumption has been taken into386

account in the forecasts. The level of traffic of light goods vehicles, measured in vehicle-km, is likely
to increase, compared with the 1994 level, by 12 to 20 per cent by the year 2000 and by 78 to 160 per
cent by the year 2025.

Forecasts of road traffic by category of vehicle
Vehicle-km, index 100 = 1994

1994
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025

Light goods
vehicles
Low
High
100
102
103
112
120
123
140
135
164
148
191
162
223
178
260

Lorries (2 and 3
axles)
Low
High
100
101
102
105
110
110
118
114
128
119
138
124
149
129
160

Lorries (4 axles
and over)
Low
High
100
102
104
115
125
128
149
143
178
159
211
177
250
197
295

Total lorries
Low

High
100

101
109
117
126
135
145
156

102
116
131
148
167
190
215

Despite the predicted growth in traffic, it should be noted that the above forecasts are less
optimistic than those made in 1988, regardless of the category of vehicle and the assumptions used.

Question 2: Current situation as regards infrastructure and investment projects

Rail transport
British Rail had planned a number of projects relating to suburban rail services which have been
postponed owing to the decline in traffic levels resulting from the recession. Whether these projects
are warranted is still under discussion and they will only be approved if economic conditions arefavourable for growth in traffic and if the necessary funding is available. The projects include themodernisation of infrastructure (platform extensions) on lines in the south-east and eastern suburban
network.
Another major project involves the construction of new underground lines through central
London, a project that is seen as a means of relieving congestion in the public transport network in thecapital. This project is known as “Thameslink 2000” and consists in the upgrading of tracks near
London Bridge and the construction of a new underground station at King’s Cross. The signallingsystem on the London-Tilbury-Southend line is also to be renovated in order to increase capacity. As
yet unspecified new infrastructure would also be required to relieve the congestion on the lines
entering south-east London (Dartford, Charing Cross or Cannon Street).
Moreover, the rail link through the Channel Tunnel, which belongs to the non-subsidised sector,
is not considered a means of helping to resolve congestion problems. The benefits expected from387

completion of this project are seen more in terms of time savings than as a contribution to relieving
congestion.
Major investment projects:− Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL)In February 1996, London and Continental Railways (LCR) won the contract to design, buildand operate a new high-speed Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL). LCR was also awarded
European Passenger Services, which operates the UK arm of the Eurostar services between
Waterloo and Paris/Brussels. The government will provide funding worth around £1.4 billion
for this project, the construction costs of which are expected to amount to £3 billion. CTRL is
forecast to produce benefits worth around £6 billion, principally to international and domestic
passengers. The project is also expected to contribute to renovating the Thames Gateway region,
with new stations at Stratford and Ebbsfleet. Depending upon progress, the link is expected toopen in 2004.
− West Coast Main Line (WCML)The WCML provides a key link between London and the north-west, serving the three largest
cities in England and the largest city in Scotland.
Railtrack is moving forward with a £1 billion core modernisation programme on the WCML.
Funded through standard track access charges, this programme includes the introduction of amodern train signalling and control system, the replacement of infrastructure and improved
power supply. Railtrack and OPRAF (Office of Passenger Rail Franchising) are also
considering a high-speed passenger upgrade, which will provide shorter journey times forpassengers. In addition, Railtrack is assessing the feasibility of an upgrade to carry higher
gauge freight.
The WCML and CTRL have both been designated as priority projects in the Trans-European
Rail Network (TEN) programme.
− Thameslink 2000
Railtrack is proceeding with this project, which is aimed at improving the existing north-south
link across central London and at increasing services between stations such as Bedford andBrighton. The centrepiece of the project is the construction of a new underground station at
St. Pancras, adjacent to the CTRL terminal. The project will also require infrastructure work,
primarily at London Bridge and Blackfriars, and also the construction of new track andpurchasing of new rolling stock. Thameslink 2000 is expected to be operational by the summerof 2002. Railtrack will bear most of the capital cost of the project, estimated to amount toaround £650 million, with the government contributing around £100 million. This projectprovides a good example of how the public and private sectors can work together in developinga major investment project.

388

− Heathrow Express
BAA is the promoter for a high-speed rail link between Heathrow airport and London
Paddington. The construction cost is estimated to amount to £350 million. Full services are
due to begin in 1998.
− Crossrail
Crossrail is a scheme for a new major rail link between eastern and western London, running
through the City and the West End. This link should provide fast direct rail services from outerareas to central London. Costing around £3 billion, the project will go ahead only if substantial
funding can be secured from the private sector following completion of the CTRL.

Road transport
The UK authorities have not provided information regarding future investment in roadinfrastructure.

Question 3: Capacity problems

Rail transport
Railtrack has primary responsibility for allocating available capacity between the competing
demands of passenger and freight traffic. Where there is a commercial case for removing
bottlenecks, Railtrack may decide to increase capacity. Thameslink 2000 is an example of a project
designed to ease capacity constraints in central London. It should allow new services to be
introduced, thus increasing train frequency from 6 trains an hour to 24 trains an hour.
Other projects such as the WCML and CTRL should also allow train frequency to be increased.
The model used to forecast traffic trends is the one developed following the Greater London
1
Transportation Survey in 1981. The data were taken from origin-destination surveys supplied by thevarious operators concerned. The results produced by the model give forecasts to horizon 2001:− private car traffic should increase by 10 per cent in the morning rush hour in the London area;− rail traffic should increase by around 15 per cent, with an increase of 20 per cent for British
Rail and 13 per cent for London Underground;− journeys between railway stations and the Underground are expected to increase by
20 per cent during the morning rush hour.
The UK authorities consider the current downtrend to be temporary and expect growth to resume
in the long term. It is clear that the level of traffic predicted in the above-mentioned study for theyear 2000 will not be attained. It would seem reasonable to assume that by that date demand will
have climbed back to the level recorded in 1988, i.e. 8 per cent below the original forecast.

389

Road transport
The UK response makes no mention of capacity problems with regard to infrastructure.

Question 4: Measures

Rail transport
Privatisation
The Railways Act of 1993 resulted in a major restructuring of the railway industry in the United
Kingdom. Previously, British Rail (BR) was the sole owner of almost all rolling stock, track, stations
and other rail infrastructure and operated virtually all freight and passenger services. A very different
structure is now emerging.
By introducing the same rules as those governing the private sector (competition, innovation andflexibility), the government’s objective is to create a more efficient and reliable railway system, withgreater responsiveness to customers and a higher quality of service. The overall aim is to encourage
greater use of rail rather than road for both passenger and freight transport.
Most of BR’s track, signalling, stations and depots are now owned by Railtrack, an infrastructure
authority. All of these assets were privatised via a stock market flotation. Railtrack derives most of
its income from the charges it levies for access to its infrastructure, either directly for track and major
stations, or through leasing arrangements in the case of most stations and depots.
The Railways Act provided for the appointment of a Rail Regulator whose functions include
regulating the activities of Railtrack, encouraging competition in the provision of rail services, andpromoting the use of the network.
The passenger operations previously managed by BR have been divided into 25 train operatingcompanies (TOCs). The Office of Passenger Rail Franchising (OPRAF), a government department, isprogressively franchising these TOCs by competitive tender to parties who are committed to their
future development. Franchises are let on the basis of the amount the franchisee requires in subsidy(or is willing to pay the government) for operating a specific set of services, otherwise known as the
Passenger Service Requirement (PSR). The franchisee is also free to operate services in addition to
the PSR. Tenders are normally invited on the basis of a duration of seven years, but the Franchising
Director is willing to consider franchises for longer periods in cases where, for example, he wishes tosecure investment in rolling stock which would not otherwise be made or if the franchisee is able todemonstrate that the extension is warranted in terms of improved value for money.
The first franchises entered into operation in February 1996 and the programme is expected to becompleted by spring 1997. The competition for franchises has been intense and the first franchises
have already produced commitments to new rolling stock and station improvements as well as
reductions in the amount of subsidy required from the government.

390

Most freight operators are now in the private sector, such as Rail Express Systems, Freightliner
and the Trainload Freight. Railfreight Distribution, the operator of services through the Channel
Tunnel, is due to be privatised towards the end of the year.
Nearly all passenger rolling stock is now owned by three ROSCOs, which were privatised earlyin 1996. These ROSCOs, which own mixed portfolios in terms of the age and type of vehicle,
generate income by leasing their rolling stock to the train operators who need it.
Privatisation has also included ancillary functions of BR such as maintenance and track renewal
companies, design offices and specialist engineering businesses.
Railtrack and the freight operators have established measures to increase the commercial
attractiveness of rail compared with other modes. The increasing impact of road congestion and therelaunching of the government’s freight grants scheme (aimed at securing environmental benefits
from the transfer of freight from road to rail) should ensure that rail freight services enjoy better
growth in the future. However, this must still remain an assumption since there are no forecasts as
yet available for rail freight use.

NOTE
1.

The “LTS” model, managed by MVA Consultants for the Department of Transport.

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