Past, Present, and Future ofMercury Problem
Reflections on the Minamata Convention on Mercury:Towards Mercury Management in the Global SouthJan 16, 2024

Masaki TAKAOKA
Professor,Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate Schoolof Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan1

Outline• Introduction (Past and Current Situation)• Minamata Convention on Mercury• Future Projections and Challenges (ERCA SII-6 Project)• Conclusions• Acknowledgements

2

Ancient and Familiar Element: Mercury• According to the Nara Period Todaiji Great
Buddha Record, 50 tons of mercury and 9tons of gold were used for the gilding ofthe Great Buddha.
• The name of [丹nyu]・[丹生 nyu] is aplace of mercury production（丹生都比売神社 Nyutsuhime Jina, Shinto, Shrine）alchemy

出典：フリー素材• Mercury is the only liquid metal atroom temperature and atmosphericpressure and has been used in avariety of products.

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Minamata Disease Damages vs. Calculated
Cost of Pollution Prevention Measures⚫Minamata disease is a mercury poisoning caused by daily intake of ﬁsh andshellﬁsh highly contaminated by methylmercury. Between 1953 and 1960, a
total of 628 patients were recognized, of which 78 had already died.
⚫Calculated Cost of Pollution Prevention Measures：billion Japanese Yen/year⚫Damages：12.631 billion Japanese Yen/year⚫Health damage：7.671 billion Japanese Yen/year⚫Environmental Pollution damage：4.271 billion Japanese Yen/year⚫Fishery damage：0.689 billion Japanese Yen/year

Activities that prioritize economic development and neglect the environment can cause
a variety of serious damage that is not easily remedied later, including health damage.
Source: Research Group on Global Environmental Economy : Japanese Experience of Environmental pollution, 1991 (in Japanese)4

Post Minamata Disease• Mercury pollution by Artisanal Small-scale GoldMining• At the 1992 United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development in Rio de Janeiro,
mercury contamination of the Brazilian Amazon
River became known worldwide.

Large-scale epidemiological study ofingestion exposure to low
concentrations of methylmercury from
1980s
Faroe Islands• Principle 15 in Rio Declaration• In order to protect the environment, theprecautionary approach shall be widely applied by
States according to their capabilities. Where thereare threats of serious or irreversible damage, lackof full scientific certainty shall not be used as areason for postponing cost-effective measures toprevent environmental degradation.

Seychelles Island5

Mercury as a Global Pollutant• Mercury Study Report toCongress（US EPA: 1997)
consists of eight volumes.
• U.S. mercury emissions bysource, the health andenvironmental impacts of thoseemissions, and an assessmentof the availability and cost ofcontrol technologies.
• The UNEP decided to promote
activities related to mercury
pollution on a global scale in2001 and conducted the Global
Mercury Assessment.

6Mercury AtmosphericEmission（2015）（Total: 2,200 tones）

Mercury Cycles

Others,285
Waste,
162
Nonferrous,
228

Cement,233

UNEP Global Mercury Assessment
2018, 2019

UNEP
homepage

ASGM,
838

Coalcombusti
on, 4747

MinamataConvention on
Mercury(MCM)➢ Aims to protect human health and theenvironment from anthropogenic
emissions of mercury and mercury
compounds➢ Article1-35.
➢ Article 3 Mercury Supply Sources andTrade➢ Article 4 Mercury-added products➢ Article 5 Manufacturing Processes in whichmercury or mercury compounds are used
➢ Based on the review of the 2003 Assessment, UNEP formally➢ Article 7 Artisanal and Small-scale gold
established the Mercury Program.
mining➢ In 2009, an agreement was reached to hold an➢ Article 8 Emissions
intergovernmental negotiating committee in 2010 to➢ Article 9 Releases
establish a treaty on mercury control (negotiations were due➢ Article 11 Mercury Waste
at UNEP's 27th Governing Council Meeting in 2013).
➢ Article 12 Contaminated sites➢ After five rounds of negotiations, the MCM was adopted at a
➢ Article 13 Financial resources anddiplomatic conference held in Kumamoto City in Octobermechanism
2013.
➢ Article 14 Capacity-building, technical➢ The MCM entered into force in August 2017.
assistance and technology transfer➢ There are 128 signatories to the treaty and 147 parties.
8➢ Article 22 Effective evaluation

COP-5 Outcome• The 5th Conference of Parties was held last November in Geneva, Switzerland.
• Parties decided to amend Annex A to the Convention with new phase-out dates for certain batteries,
switches, relays and fluorescent lamps. Parties agreed on a new requirement to advance the phasedown of dental amalgam and, as of 2025, no mercury level will be allowed in cosmetics. They alsodecided to amend Annex B with a 2025 phase-out date for the production of polyurethane using
mercury catalysts.
• Other technical decisions covered the adoption of guidance for controlling mercury releases to land andwater, and the request for Parties to continue to advance their efforts to control the emissions ofmercury to the atmosphere. After seven years of negotiation, Parties agreed on a 15 mg/kg total
concentration of mercury as the threshold for wastes contaminated with mercury or mercury
compounds.
• The COP established a group to oversee the development of the first report to evaluate the effectivenessof the Convention, following the agreed indicators, most of them based on national reportingsubmissions. Considered a standalone agenda item for the first time, the COP pushed to reduce mercury
supply sources and trade by strengthening capacities at the national level and developing a study on theglobal supply, trade, production and use of mercury compounds.
9研究開発背景

取扱注意

Future projection and quantitative evaluation of theeffectiveness of countermeasures (ERCA SII-6 Project)✓ For appropriate implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury around the world, measuresthat combine various technologies and systems, such as the conversion of industrial processes andapplication of advanced emission control technologies, are necessary.

Projected changes in mercury
concentrations in seafood by scenario

Mercury conc.in seafood➢ A baseline scenario and an "intervention scenario" incorporating theeffects of the measures are necessary, but the intervention scenario
must take into account future social changes.
➢ Currently, it is difficult to quantitatively understand and evaluate theoverall effectiveness of individual measures.
➢ It is desirable to develop and use models that can quantitatively express
behavior under natural conditions and anthropogenic activities, and thatcan be used to predict the future and quantitatively evaluate the effectsof countermeasures.
➢ It is also necessary to determine the extent to which the estimatedexposure brought about by mercury concentrations in seafood, obtainedby model calculations considering intervention scenarios, changes andtransitions.

Baseline
Implementation of MCM

Promotion of Climate mitigation

10YearReducing anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere can reduce
global mercury levels in the atmosphere and surface seawater (from SII-6-3)
The rate of increase relative to 1850

Projected increase in mercury compared to 1850 for each scenario
Future climate change and anthropogenic
77
mercury emissions projection data were
Ocean surface layers
Atmosphericused to simulate future atmospheric and(0-70m)boundary layer
66
ocean surface global total mercury (200055Baseline2050) and to calculate the rate of increase(Reference)44
relative to 1850 (post-industrial revolution).
GradualThe moderate climate change scenario was
33reductionused for the projection, based on the results
22Maximumthat the impact of different climate change
reduction in11scenarios on global mercury emissions is2050
expected to be small up to 2050.
00
Input data
Future Climate Change scenario（ssp-245）
Future emission scenario of atmosphericemissions：Baseline (Reference)：Gradual reduction：Maximum reduction in 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050（年）2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050（年）Countermeasures under the Convention will contribute to halting theincrease of mercury in the atmosphere and ocean surface layers. With
maximum measures, it is possible to reduce the amount of mercury in theatmosphere and ocean surface layers by 2050. However, gradual reductions
in emissions may only halt the increase in the environment.
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Source: https://www.erca.go.jp/suishinhi/seika/db/pdf/end_presentation/S2-6.pdf

Although there is a time lag before the effects of the measures are clearlyvisible, they will make a big difference as of 2050. Measures taken from anearly stage are effective (from SII-6-1)

In the maximum reduction scenario, thefollowing benefits were projected at 2050,
compared to the reference scenario withoutadditional measures.
✓ IQ: +10 million points/year✓ About -27,000 cardiac deaths/year✓ Economic benefits of about +27 trillion yen/year
Source: https://www.erca.go.jp/suishinhi/seika/db/pdf/end_presentation/S2-6.pdf

Population in excess of the WHO TWI
values {Million people/year]• Mercury intake can impair neurodevelopment and increase cardiac mortality.
• Based on the mercury intake of each country calculated from the global model projections,the health risk from mercury was quantified in terms of (1) population in excess of the WHOTolerable Weekly Intake (TWI) values, (2) IQ reduction, (3) cardiac deaths, and (4) total
economic cost as impact indicators.
Population in excess of the WHO TWI values
Baseline(Reference)

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GradualReductions

64

Clearly begins
to decline
around 2035

2

Maximum
Reductionsin 2050

5.5 million
people will
decrease bymaximum
reduction
scenario in2050

02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year 12Establish strategic mercury monitoring guidelines that consider climatechange to assess the Minamata Convention's effectiveness! (from SII-6-3)
The Convention's effectivenessDistribution of percent reduction in mercury concentrations in 2050 under the maximum

assessment is expected toreduction and gradual reduction scenarios

evaluate changes in mercury

Gaseous metal mercury in the atmosphere

Monomethyl mercury in particle-form organic
matter in the upper ocean layer (0 - 200 m)

concentrations in theatmosphere and biota. We
analyzed the distribution ofpercent reduction in mercury
concentrations in theatmospheric and marine

environment for different
scenarios.
Under the maximum reduction scenario, atmospheric mercury concentrations in South Asia, Africa, and parts of SouthAmerica, and biota mercury concentrations in the ocean around the equator and the Arctic could be relatively reduced.

Acquisition of monitoring data in these regions may allow verification of the effects of reductions.

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Source: https://www.erca.go.jp/suishinhi/seika/db/pdf/end_presentation/S2-6.pdf

Long-term stable storage of mercury is inevitable to break the mercury cyclein the environment (SII-6-1)➢ A defense-in-depth approach is important to minimize the mercury release to the environment.
➢ High purity, stabilization methods and solidification methods are key elements for the production oflong-term stable mercury waste.
➢ The solidified material has to be confirmed for long-term environmental safety by various methods.
➢ Appropriate environmental conditions must be maintained at the disposal site.
➢ Monitoring and risk communications are also essential.
➢ Mercury can be safely sequestered for long periods without waste rock salt mines.
Hg

HgS

S

HgS
SolidifiedMaterial
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Source: https://www.erca.go.jp/suishinhi/seika/db/pdf/end_presentation/S2-6.pdf

Conclusions• Activities that prioritize economic development and neglect the environment cancause a variety of serious damage that is not easily remedied later.
• Reducing anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere can reduce global
mercury levels in the atmosphere and surface seawater.
• Even if measures to reduce emissions as envisioned by the Minamata Convention
are taken, atmospheric mercury concentrations will only offset economic growth
and remain status quo. Reduction as much as possible is desired.
• If measures are not taken, economic losses due to health hazards in 2050 willincrease.
• It is important to establish strategic mercury monitoring guidelines that consider
climate change to assess the Minamata Convention's effectiveness.
• Long-term stable storage of mercury is inevitable to break the mercury cycle inthe environment.
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Acknowledgements• Environment Research and Technology Development Fund from ERCA
• SII-6, SII-6-1(FY2020-2022)• 3-1701(FY2017-2019)• 3K143002(FY2014-2016)• K113001(FY2011-2013)• K22062(FY2010)• K2147(FY2009)• K2006(FY2008)• Many collaborators: Fumitake Takahashi(TIT), Kenichi Nakajima (NIES), Akinori Takeuchi(NIES) , Ryuji Yanase (FU), Osamu Hirata (FU), Keizo Kawase (FU), Takefumi Hayashi(NIES),Akira Sano(KU, FU), Akito Matsuyama(NMD), Jiro Takemura (TIT), Hiroshi Moritomi (GU),Masahiro Oguchi (NIES), Hiroshi Miura (Nomura Kohsan), Satoshi Mizutani (OMU), Misuzu
Asari (KU), Akiko Kida(NIES) , Reiko Sodeno (SIT), Habuer (OU), Taketoshi Kusakabe (KU, OIT)
• Supporters, students, staffs
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