Population Association of Japan
2013 Annual Meeting Program
May 31, June 1-2, 2013
Sapporo City University
ACU, Asty45 16F, North 4 West 5, Chuo-ku, Sapporo city
Geijutsu-no-mori Campus
Geijutsu-no-mori 1, Minami-ku, Sapporo city

©2005- Sapporo City

President

ANZO, Shinji

Chair, Organizing Committee
HARA, ToshihikoProgram SummaryDay

May 31

Place
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
〜21:00ACU

June 1

June 2

Geijutsu-no-mori Campus Geijutsu-no-mori Campus
8:308:30- Registration
C-101
C-101

Registration

9:00-12:00
9:30-12:30
General Session A
General Session B
General Session C

C-102
C-103
C-104

12:30-

12:30-14:00

Registration

Lunch BreakCloverHall

13:30-16:30

SpecialSession

ACU
160 6
（16F）

Planning Session 2
Theme Session 2
General Session F
General Session G

C-201
C-102
C-103
C-104

12:00-13:00

CloverHall

Lunch Break

14:00-15:30

13:00-16:00

GeneralMembership
Meeting

Planning Session 1
Theme Session 1
General Session H
General Session I

C-201

C-102
C-201
C-103
C-104

15:40-18:40
17:00-18:00

Council

Satellite
Campus(12F)

Planning Session 3
Planning Session 4
General Session D
General Session E

19:00-21:00
Welcome Reception

C-102
C-201
C-103
C-104

CloverHall

Program Committee
Position

Name

Affiliation

Chair

INABA, Hisashi

The University of Tokyo

Vice-ChairISHII, Futoshi

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

MemberINOUE, Takashi

Aoyama Gakuin University

MemberKAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi

Tezukayama University

Member

KONISHI, Syoko

The University of Tokyo

MemberSUZUKI, Toru

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Member

WADA, Kohei

Chuo University

Secretary

KAMATA, Kenji

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Population Association of Japan
2013 Annual Meeting Program
Friday 31 May 13：30〜16：30
１２：３０〜

Registration

Special Session
The 3rd GIS Tutorial Seminarfor Local Administration
Organizer・Chair : INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
1) The Practical Use of Free GIS Software for Familiarizing GIS to Small Municipalities inUnderpopulated Area・・・KAWASE, Masaki（Hiroshima Shudo University）
2) An Analysis of Population Change along Abandoned Railway Lines - A Case Study of Hokkaido
・・・KOIKE, Shiro（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
3) A Study on Appropriate Location of Institutions Operate the Child Care Support Services
・・・KAMATA, Kenji（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
HASEGAWA, Hirokazu（Niigata City）
4) Benefit of GIS Utilization to City Management・・・HASEGAWA, Hirokazu（Niigata City）
5) Application of GIS in Parks and Greenspaces Policies・・・HOSOE, Mayumi（Kashiwa Green Foundation）

会場 ： ACU 16F
http://www.acu-h.jp/koutsu̲access/index.php

ASTY 45

ACU

16F

1606

Elevator
Hall

Registration

Waiting RoomASTY 45- 1-

12F

12：00-19：00
Satellite OfficePopulation Association of Japan
2013 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 1 June 9：30〜12：30
8：30〜

Registration（C-101）

General Session A （C-102）∇ A１ Family Demography ＜Chair＞TSUYA, Noriko （Keio University）
１） The Cost of Child Rearing and Mother's Employment in Comparative Perspective
・・・YOSHIDA, Chizu（Kanto Gakuin University）
・・・・・MAEDA, Masako（Konan University）
２） Have Double-shifts by Wives Accelerated? -Changes in the Allocation of Resources between
・・・SAKAMOTO, Kazuyasu（Gunma University）

Couples３） Gender Population Statistics from Man's Perspectives
・・・SAKAI, Hiromichi（Saitama Prefecture University）∇ A２ Female Employment ＜Chair＞YOSHIDA, Chizu（Kanto Gakuin University）
４） Factors Affecting Women's Working and Childbearing Choice
・・・YAMAYA, Mana（Ochanomizu University）
５） Effects of WLB systems on Female Labor Supply and Childbirth in Japan
・・・TERAMURA, Eriko（Kokusai Junior College）
６） Influence of Child-care to the Female Working Ratio Curve
・・・IHARA, Hajime（Statistical Research and Training Institute ）General Session B （C-103）∇ B１ Population Statistics I ＜Chair＞FUKUI, Takehiro（Statistical Research and Training Institute ）１） The Anonymized Data of the 2000 & 2005 Population Census in Japan・・・NEMOTO, Kazuro（Statistics Bureau）・YOKOUCHI, Hiroshi（Statistics Bureau）
２） Limited Village(Cho-cho-aza) by Small Area Statistics of Population・・・MATSUMURA, Michio∇ B２ Population Statistics II ＜Chair＞MATSUMURA, Michio３） Statistical Analysis of Demographic Indices by Measures of Population Structure
・・・INUKAI, Naohiko（Waseda University）
４） On Publication of Age Group Data of Registered Population by Local Governments
・・・YAMADA, Shigeru（Kokushikan University）- 2-

General Session C （C-104）∇ C１ Aging in Asia I ＜Chair＞OGAWA, Naohiro（Nihon University）
１） China's Population Aging and the "Double-track" Pension System
・・・HAO, Yin（Fukuoka Women's University）
２） On Bridging Micro Individual Discrete Events and Macro Continuous Population Outcomes:
Evolutions of Flows Analysis and Scientific Computing Challenges・・・LIN, Ji-Ping(R

C

H

S

S)

∇ C2 Aging in Asia II ＜Chair＞MATSUURA, Tsukasa（Chuo University）
３） Macroeconometric Analysis of Domestic Demand and Demographic Change in East Asia:
Comparison of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
・・・WATANABE, Yuichi（Institute of Developing Economies）
4) A Study on Low Birthrate and Aging by Abridged Demo-Econometric Model
・・・OTSUKA, Tomomi（Nihon University）
５） The Economic Impact of Population Aging in Selected Asian Countries: An NTA-based Approach・・・OGAWA, Naohiro（Nihon University）
・・・・・MATSUKURA, Rikiya（Nihon University）

１２：３０〜１４：００ Lunch Break （Clover Hall）

General Membership Meeting（C-201）

Saturday 1 June

Welcome Address from the Host
Organization（１４：００〜１４：１０）
Presidential Address（１４：１０〜１４：４０）
General Membership Meeting（１４：４０〜１５：３０）

１５：４0〜1８：４0

Planning Session 3（C-102）
Populations in Northern Regions: Health, Education and Environment＜Organizer・Chair＞TABATA, Tomoko（Hokkaido University）
１） Healthy Life Expectancy

・・・TSUJI, Ichiro（Tohoku University）

２） Relation to the change of industrial structure・・・YANAGAWA, Noriyuki（The University of Tokyo）
３） Public Health and Environmental Issues in Japan: A Country where Peoples are hard to live
and hard to born・・・KISHI, Reiko（Hokkaido University）

Planning Session 4（C-201）
Policies for Work and Family Life:Interplay between Research and Policy＜Organizer＞NAGASE, Nobuko（Ochanomizu University）＜Chair・Discussant＞TSUYA, Noriko （Keio University）
１） Analysis for Work and Life Balance on Happiness using Panel Data
・・・HIGUCHI, Yoshio（Keio University）・SATO, Kazuma（Meikai University）・HAGIWARA, Risa（Keio University）
２） Parental Employment and Child's Nurture Environment
・・・SUGAWARA, Masumi（Ochanomizu University）
３） Three Laws relating to Children and Childrearing (Measures to promote Nursing Services in・・・INAGAWA, Hidekazu（Cabinet Office）

Big Cities)

４） Present Status and Perspective on Gender Equality and ChildcareServices in Sapporo
・・・MORI, Yuji（City of Sapporo）
５） Japanese Women's Work and First Child Birth Timing in the 2000's・・・NAGASE, Nobuko（Ochanomizu University）

General Session D （C-103）∇ D１ Social Security ＜Chair＞HARA, Toshihiko（Sapporo City University）
１） Social Security Finance Projection using Macroeconometric Model・・・KATO, Hisakazu（Meiji University）
２） Incorporation of Foreign-born Population and Its Impact on the Future Population Dynamics
and Social Security

・・・ISHII, Futoshi（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

KOREKAWA, Yu（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）・MUTO, Norimasa（Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare）∇ D２ Population Issues ＜Chair＞TSUBOUCHI, Yoshihiro（Kyoto University）
３） Demographic Studies on the Family: Measuring Nuclearization of the Family
・・・HIROSIMA, Kiyosi（Shimane University）
４） Demographic Transition and Changing Demographic Dependency Ratio in Japan: the Principle
・・・HARA, Toshihiko（Sapporo City University）

of the Sustainable Population System?

５） A Global Perspective on Population and Development Issues: Advances, Gaps, Imbalances,and conflicts

・・・SATO, Ryuzaburo（Chuo University）

General Session E （C-104）∇ E１ Marriage ＜Chair＞KANEKO, Ryuichi（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
１） Current Situation of Parasite Single in Japan・・・NISHI, Fumihiko（Statistical Research and Training Institute ）２） Is There Any Effect of Cohort Size on the Marriage Process?・・・IKE, Shuichiro（Teikyo University）
３） Changes in Marriage Structure since the 1970s
・・・IWASAWA, Miho（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）- 3-

∇ E2 Fertility in international / disaster area ＜Chair＞NAKAZAWA, Minato（Kobe University）
5) Effects of the 1st Marriage and Marital Fertilities on Period Fertility Rates in Singapore:a Lifetable Analysis・・・SUGA, Keita（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
6) Marriage and Sexual Differences of Fertility among Shifting Cultivators: A Case from the
Majangir in Lowland Ethiopia・・・SATO, Ren'ya（Kyushu University）
7) Impact of the East Japan Earthquake on Reproduction, Marriage and Secondary Sex Ratio among
Japanese・・・HAMAMATSU, Yuri（The University of Tokyo）・INOUE, Yosuke（The University of Tokyo） ・
UMEZAKI, Masahiro（The University of Tokyo）

Welcome Reception（Clover Hall）19：00〜21：00
Population Association of Japan
2013 Annual Meeting Program
Sunday 2 June 9：00〜12：00
8：30〜

Registration（C-101）

Planning Session 2（C-201）
Actuary and Demography＜Organizer＞ISHII, Futoshi（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）＜Chair＞TAKAHASHI, Shigesato (Meiji University)
１） Demography and Life Insurance Actuary・・・TAKAHASHI, Yoshihiro（Sumitomo Life Insurance Company）
２） Challenges related to Mortality Rates for Pension Acturaries
・・・IGAWA, Takayuki（Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. ）３） Topics with Regard to Mortality Rate in Japan・・・NISHIMURA, Taisuke（The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company, Ltd. ）４） The Role of Stochastic Mortality Models for Estimating Longevity Risk Associated with Insurance
and Pension Scheme Liabilities・・・FUJISAWA, Yosuke（Lifenet Insurance Company）
５） Mortality Improvement and Yields on Government Bonds
・・・HIDAKA, Masanori（Tokio Marine Asset Management Co Ltd）
６） On the Projection of Mortality etc. - Principally, on the Reflection of Trend
・・・SHINOHARA, Takuya（Nippon Life Insurance Company）
７） Best Estimate Mortality Rate (from a Viewpoint of USGAAP Practice)・・・KABURAGI, Hiroyoshi（Gibraltar Life Insurance Co. Ltd.）- 4-

Theme Session 2（C-102）
Demography as Area Studies of East Asia
＜Organizer・Chair＞SUZUKI, Toru（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）＜Discussant＞HAYASE, Yasuko（Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.）
SHIMIZU, Hiroaki（Nihon University）
１） Educational Aspirations and Social Stratification in Japan and Korea
・・・CHO, Sung-ho（Osaka University of Commerce）
２） Habitus of Reproduction in Japan: Investing Change and Continuity in the East-West Contrasts
in Marital Fertility over the Long 20th Century・・・KATO, Akihiko（Meiji University）
３） Childrearing Support and Fertility Behavior in Taiwan
・・・KABE, Shigesaburo（Japan Center for Economic Research ）４） Immigrant Occupational Attainment in Japan: An Analysis by Census Micro Data
・・・KOREKAWA, Yu（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
５） Religion and Fertility-Related Attitudes in East Asia・・・KOJIMA, Hiroshi（Waseda University）

General Session F （C-103）∇ F１ Social and Economic Demography ＜Chair＞WATANABE, Machiko（Meikai University）
１） The Economics of Romance・・・NISHIMURA, Tomo（Kwansei Gakuin University）
２） Health, Work and Happiness of Thai Industrial Workers : The Role of Generational Cohorts
・・・・・HOLUMYONG, C., S. KITTISUKSATHIT, W . A R E E and B. CHOKTHANANUKUL(Mahidol University)∇ F2 Population Economics ＜Chair＞KATO, Hisakazu（Meiji University）
３） Relative Concerns, Happiness, and Reproductive Behavior・・・KAGEYAMA, Junji（Meikai University）
４） The Effect of Children on Life-Satisfaction for Parents-An Analysis of using KHPS Data・・・MATSUURA, Tsukasa（Chuo University）・TERUYAMA, Hiroshi（Kyoto University）
６） Elderly Consumers' Behavior in the Metropolitan Area・・・WATANABE, Machiko（Meikai University）

General Session G （C-104）∇ G１ Regional Populations ＜Chair＞TAKAHASHI, Shinichi（Niigata Sanygo University）
１） Suggestion of Regional Household Projections by Method of Extensition of Headship
Cohort-Share by Family Type・・・MARUYAMA, Yohei（Keio University）
２） A Population Projection Model Supporsed to Apply to Small Areas
・・・KOIKE, Shiro（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
３） A Demographic Analysis of Regional Population Change in Japan
・・・YAMAUCHI, Masakazu（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

∇ G2 Historical Demography ＜Chair＞KUROSU, Satomi（Reitaku University）
４） Population Change, Improvement of Sex Ratio and Nuptiality: A Case Study of a Fishing Village
in the Tokugawa Period・・・NAKAJIMA, Mitsuhiro（Kyoto University）
５） Population Change and Household Composition in a Commercial District of Early Modern Kyoto:
Koromonotana-cho・・・HAMANO, Kiyoshi（Kansai University）
６） Demographic Responses to Economic Stress and Household Contexet in Preindustrial
Northeastern Japan・・・TSUYA, Noriko（Keio University）・KUROSU, Satomi（Reitaku University）

１２：0０〜１3：００ Lunch Break （Clover Hall）

Sunday 2 June

13：00〜16：00

Planning Session 1（C-102）
Information Technology and Historical Demography＜Organizer＞KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi（Tezukayama University）＜Chair＞HIRAI, Masako（Kobe University）＜Discussant＞TOMOBE, Kenichi（Osaka University）・OKUNUKI, Keiichi（Nagoya University）
１） Perspectives of Data Analysis System for Population and Family Studies on Japan in the
17th-19th Centuries・・・KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi（Tezukayama University）
２） Current Propositons of Kinship Database Management System
・・・SUGITO, Shigenobu（Sugiyama Jogakuen University）
３） A GIS-oriented Study of Rural Migration in Northeast Thailand
・・・NAGATA, Yoshikatsu（Osaka City University）
４） Perspectivess of Central Place Studies using GIS and Historical Data on Japan in theTransitional Period of Modern Era・・・ISHIZAKI, Kenji（Nara Women's University）

Theme Session 1（C-201）
Infertility and Population＜Organizer＞KONISHI, Shoko（The University of Tokyo）＜Chair＞OTSUKA, Ryutaro（The University of Tokyo）＜Discussant＞SATO, Ryuzaburo（Chuo University）・IWASAWA, Miho（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
１） Age and Fecundity・・・KONISHI, Shoko（The University of Tokyo）
２） Bi-dimension of Unmarried Pregnancy Group and Infertility Treatment Group・・・SAOTOME, Tomoko（Kanagawa Prectural Shiomidai Hospital）
６） Possible Relationship between Fertility and Nutrition
・・・NAKAZAWA, Minato（Kobe University）- 5-

General Session H （C-103）∇ H１ Migration I ＜Chair＞OBAYASHI, Senichi（Teikyo University）
１） International Comparison of Population Migration - viewed through Mobility
・・・HAYASHI, Reiko（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
２） The Recent Trend of the International Migration in Japan・・・SASAI, Tsukasa（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
３） Socioeconomic Adjustment of Overseas Return Migrants in Japan・・・NAKAGAWA, Masataka（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
・・・・・HAYASHI, Reiko（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）∇ H2 Migration II ＜Chair＞HAYASHI, Reiko（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
４） Return Migration to Birth Prefecture fron National Survey on Migration: Considering the Marital
Status・・・KISHI, Masahiro（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
５） Population Distribution Change in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area under the Population Declining
Phase of Japan: Migration Estimation by Cohort Share Analysis
・・・ABE, Takashi（Japan Woman's University）
６） Community Detection in Commutably Interconnected Municipalities Applying Modularity Method
in Complex Network Analysis・・・OBAYASHI, Senichi（Teikyo University）

General Session I （C-104）∇ I１ Mortality and Morbidity I ＜Chair＞ISHII, Futoshi（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
１） Trends in Health Expectancy in Contemporary Russia・・・MINAGAWA, Yuka（Waseda University）
２） A Demographic Analysis of Health Structure and Health Expectancy in Japan・・・BEPPU, Motomi（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
・・・・・TAKAHASHI, Shigesato (Meiji University)∇ I2 Mortality and Morbidity II ＜Chair＞TAKAHASHI, Shigesato (Meiji University)３）Estimation of the Length of Healthy Life by using National Health Insurance and Long Term
Care Insurance Claim Data
・・・IZUMIDA, Nobuyuki（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
・・・TAMIYA, Nanako（Tsukuba University）
４） Age Structure of Long Term Disparity in Life Expectancies between Okinawa and All Japan,
1921-2010: Utilizing Life Tables by Mizushima Haruo and Ryukyu Government・・・OHMI, Kenichi（National
Institute of Public Health）- 6-

Logistic Information about the 65th Annual Meetingof the Population Association of Japan, Sapporo, June 1–2, 2013
(1) Venue: Sapporo City University, Geijutsu-no-mori Campus[The URL of Sapporo City University is: http://www.scu.ac.jp/english/access/.](2) Registration Fee: 4,000 JPY, payable in cash at the meeting venue[Registration fee for participants residing in Japan is 5,000 JPY if paid at the venue, and 4,000
JPY if pre-paid. For participants from overseas, the pre-registration fee is applied.](3) PAJ Annual Meeting Mixer: Will be held in the evening of June 1 Saturday at Clover Hall Cafeteriaof the Geijitsu-no-mori Campus of Sapporo City University (the meeting venue), starting at 19:00.
The fee is 4,000 JPY per person including buffet dinner and drinks, payable in cash at the timeof registration.
[The fee for the mixer for participants in Japan is 5,000 JPY per person if paid at the venue—4,000 JPY if pre-parid—but the prepaid amount is applied to participants from overseas.](4) Annual Meeting Program: A preliminary program of the 65th PAJ annual meeting will be uploaded
to the PAJ website at around the end of April 2013.
(5) Time Duration for Oral Presentation: 25 minutes in total per presentation—15 minutes forpresentation, plus 10 minutes for Q & A following the presentation.
(6) Handouts for Oral Presentation: If you choose to distribute hard copies of your handout,
please prepare 50 copies and hand them to attendants/assistants assigned by the organizer atthe venue.
(7) PowerPoint File for Oral Presentation: Presenters are allowed to use PowerPoint files fortheir oral presentation. Please bring your PPT file stored in a USB flush memory and upload it
before your session. The organizer will prepare a PC (with OS being Windows) and a projector
at each room of the meeting venue (participants are not allowed to bring in his/her own PC andprojector).
(8) Accommodation: No specific arrangements are made by the organizer of the meeting. Please
make personal arrangements by yourself. Sapporo being a city with over one million population,
there are many hotels in the city. To reach the meeting venue (Geijitsu-no-mori Campus of Sapporo
City University), you need to come to Makomanai Subway Station. For this, it is most convenient
to stay at a hotel located in central part of Sapporo City with good subway access, such as
JR Sapporo Station.
- 7-

(9) Contact Information of the 65th PAJ Annual Meeting Organizing Committee: The organizerof the meeting is Professor Toshihiko HARA. If you need to contact Professor Hara during themeeting, his contact information is as follows:[Email] t.hara@scu.ac.jp[cell phone] 090-8274-5140- 8-