Population Association of Japan

2007 Annual Meeting Program

June 9 – 10, 2007
Shimane University

President
TAKAHASHI, Shinichi
Chair, Organizing Committee
HIROSHIMA, Kiyoshi

Program Summary
Saturday 9 June
０９：００
０９：３０～１２：３０

Registration
Theme Session 1: The Demography of the Baby Boomer’s Children (100)General Session 1 (202)General Session 2 (201)General Session 3 (302)

１２：３０～１３：３０
１２：３０～１３：３０
１３：３０～１３：４０
１４：２０～１５：１０

Lunch BreakPAJ Board of Director’s Meeting
Welcome Address from the Host Organization (100)General Membership Meeting (100)

１５：１０～１８：１０Symposium Reconsidering pronatalistic policy measures (100)

１８：３０～２０：００

Welcome Reception (Seikyo Daiichi Syokudo)

Sunday 10 June
０８：３０
０９：００～１２：００

Registration
Theme Session 2: Small Area Statistics and Regional Demography Part 1 (100)General Session 4 (201)General Session 5 (202)General Session 6 (302)

１２：００～１２：４５

Lunch Break

１２：４５～１５：4５
１２：４５～１4：1５

Theme Session 3: Small Area Statistics and Regional Demography Part 2 (202)General Session 7 (302)
General Session 8 (201)1Population Association of Japan

2007 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 9 June

9 : 00９：３０-１２：３０Registration

Theme Session 1 (Room No.100)
The Demography of the Baby Boomer’s Children
Organizer & Chair：KATO, Hisakazu（Meiji University）
Discussant： WATANABE, Machiko（Meikai University）
MORIIZUMI, Rie（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ）INAGAKI, Seiichi (Tokyo International University)
Future Projections on Families/Households of the Second Baby Boomers
ASAI, Yukiko (Keio University)
Marriage in a Regional Context: An Event History Analysis of First Marriagein JapanFUKUDA, Setsuya (Meiji University)
The Trend of Relative Income and Its Effects on Marriage Formation in Post-war
Japan： Effects of Generation Size on the Demographic Consequence2

General Session 1 (Room No. 202)
Chair: Saito, Osamu (Hitotsubashi University)
HAYASHI, Reiko (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)Long-term trend of city population structure
HAMANO, Kiyoshi (Kansai University)
On estimates of total population of Kyoto in the late Tokugawa period
KUROSU, Satomi (Reitaku University)
TAKAHASHI, Miyuki (JSPS Research Fellow-Sophia University)
Population dynamics and migration in Koriyama-area: Towns vs. villages in 1708-1870
Chair: KITO, Hiroshi (Sophia University)
OKADA, Aoi (Teikyo University)
Marriage and divorce to maintain the stem family system in early modern JapanTOISHI, Nanami (JSPS Research Fellow-Sophia University)
Households and retreats in transition period from the Early Modern times toModern times in a mountainous village of South Kanto
KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi (Tezukayama University)
Where did the peasants in Tama County, Musashi Province die during the 18th -19th centuries?

General Session 2 (Room No. 201)
Chair: HAYASE, Yasuko (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret)
YIN, Yunxiang (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)
The Life Situation and Social Network Analysis of Migrants in China- One study based on the survey in Beijing and Shanghai City
KANG, Wenqin (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)
Low Birth Rate and Aging Issue in Shanghai’s Downtown Area
- One study based on Luwan district
FENG, Wenmeng (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science)
Analysis on Migrants’ life in China- One study based on the survey in Guangdong Province
Chair: ISHI, Yoshikuni (Josai University)
NISHIKAWA, Yuiko (Josai University)
Change of Population Structure and Employment in India during 1990s
NAKAGAWA, Satoshi (Kobe University)
Migration in Northeastern Thailand
TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (Kobe University)
Fertility decline in a rural region in Tanzania

3General Session 3 (Room No. 302)
Chair: MORIOKA, Jin (Komazawa University)
IKEDA, Kazuo (Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health)
NADAOKA, Yoko (Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health)
KURASHINA, Shiusuke (Geriatric Care Facility Care-Center-Ami)
The trend of generation live births in Japan
IKE, Schuichirou (Teikyo University)
On the Decline Process of Complete Fertility at Kanto area in Japan
Chair: HARA, Toshihiko (Sapporo City University)
BEPPU, Motomi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
An Analysis of Marriage Life Cycle in Japan by Multistate Life Tables: 1930,1955,1980 and 2005
YOSHIDA, Chizu (Kanto Gakuin University)
The relationship between husbands’ and wives’ employment and birth timing in comparative perspective
MASUDA, Mikito (Toyo University)
An Analysis of the Effect from Measures Taken to Confront the Problem of Fewer
Numbers of Children : Based on the ‘Employment Status of Women’ Model

12 : 30 – 13 : 30

Lunch Break

12 : 30 – 13 : 30

PAJ Board of Director’s Meeting

13 : 30 – 13 : 40

Welcome Address (Room No.100)

14 : 20 – 15 : 10

General Membership Meeting (Room No.100)

4

Saturday 9 June

１5：1０-１8：1０

Symposium (Room No.100)
Reconsidering pronatalistic policy measures
Organizer：HIROSHIMA, Kiyoshi (Shimane University)
Chair：ANZO, Shinji (Meiji University)
Discussant：SATO, Ryuzaburo (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
KINUGASA, Tomoko (Kobe University)
TSUYA, Noriko (Keio University)
Fertility Changes and Policy Responses in Europe

KOJIMA, Hiroshi (Waseda University)
KATO, Akihiko (Meiji University)

18 : 30 – 20 : 30

Welcome Party(“SEIKYO DAIICHI SYOKUDO”)

5

Population Association of Japan

2007 Annual Meeting Program
Sunday 10 June

8 : 30

９：００-１２：００Registration

Theme Session 2 (Room No.100)
Small Area Statistics and Regional Demography Part 1

Organizer ：ABE, Takashi (Japan Women's University)
Chair：INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
Discussant：TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (Kobe University)
YOSHIDA, Yoshio (Asahi University)
HIROSIMA, Kiyoshi (Shimane University)
Fertility decline in prewar municipalities: case of Shimane Prefecture
YAMAGAMI, Tatsuya (Ritsumeikan University)
Differences in population growth among districts within Maizuru City, Kyoto
ITO, Kaoru (Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University )Industry Development and Migration of Tokai Region in JapanNISHI, Fumihiko (Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications )KAN, Mari (Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications )Small Area Statistics in Cambodia

6General Session 4 (Room No. 201)
Chair：YAMAGUCHI, Kiichi (Tokyo Kasei-Gakuin Universit, ret)
YAMADA, Shigeru (Kokushikan University)
Response Rate in Major Cities of 2005 Population Census
YONEZAWA, Tetsuichi (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)
Some changes on tabulation of results of 2005 population census considering
the recent change of social economics conditions, and its results
MATSUMURA, Michio (National Statistics Center)
ISHIHARA, Hideo (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)
Changing of Family Type of Household of the Japanese Baby Boom Generation
Chair：WATANABE, Machiko（Meikai University）
TSUTSUMI, Kenji (Osaka University)
A comparative study of severely depopulated areas：Case of out-migrationfrom a mountainous village and from an area where coal mine was shut down
MARUYAMA, Yohei (Keio University)
Oe, Moriyuki (Keio University)
The review of the Theory of “Potential Life Time Out-Migrants” : Focusing onDifferences of Regions and Cohorts
ISHIKAWA, Akira（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ）SASAI, Tsukasa（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ）Quantitative Analysis on Determinants of Changes in International Migration in Japan

General Session 5 (Room No. 202)
Chair：WADA, Kohei（Chuo University）
SATO, Ryuzaburo (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )SHIRAISHI, Noriko (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )BANDO, Rieko (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Fertility trends and policy measures in less developed regions
IKEGAMI, Kiyoko (United Nations Population Fund, Tokyo Office)Baseline Survey Analysis on Peer Education in Cambodia
Chair：ATO, Makoto (Waseda University)
KONO, Shigemi (Reitaku University)
Politico-Demographic Reflections of Population Decline
KAMATA, Kenji (Meiji University)
A panel analysis of the influence which Family Expenditure gives to TFR
HARA, Toshihiko (Sapporo City University)
Fertility Decline and Family Policy Change in Germany
7General Session 6 (Room No. 302)
Chair：KANEKIYO, Hiroyuki (Meiji University)
KOJIMA , Katsuhisa (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Economic Status of the Elderly household in Japan from the point of Wealth
Difference
OGAWA, Naohiro (Nihon University)
MATSUKURA, Rikiya (Nihon University)
Economic impacts of population ageing, based on an NTA approachSUZUKI, Toru (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )Patterns of Home-Leaving in Japan
ANZO, Shinji（Meiji University）
A Summary of the Delphi Survey（2nd Survey）
NAKAJIMA, Mitsuhiro（Kyoto University）
Analysis Classified by Special Field for the Prospect of “the Declining Birthrate”
which is Seen in the First and Second Delphi Survey

12 : 00 – 12 : 45

Lunch Break8

Sunday 4 June

１２：４５-１５：１５Theme Session 3 (Room No. 202)
Small Area Statistics and Regional Demography Part 1
Organizer：ABE, Takashi (Japan Women's University)
Chair：OTOMO, Atsushi (ICONS)
Discussant：OBAYASHI, Senichi (Teikyo University)
NAKAGAWA, Satoshi (Kobe University)
KOIKE, Shiro (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
An Analysis of Population Dynamics by Pre-war Municipality Using GIS
INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
On a method of calculating population potentials using GIS and small areademographics
KOMURO , Yukio (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)
MATSUMURA , Michio (National Statistics Center)
An introduction of outline of the “GIS Plaza of Statistics”, which is website and it
provides geographic information and combined statistical information using
the Geographical Information System(GIS)
SAKANISHI, Akiko (Nara Prefectural University)
A spatial analysis on changes in population and employment distribution in
metropolitan districts by using small area statistics

General Session 7 (Room No. 302)
Chair：TAKAHASHI, Shigesato (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research )KAN, Mari（Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications ）NISHI, Fumihiko（Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications ）Current situation of single fathers in JapanRAYMO, James (University of Wisconsin, Department of Sociology)
IWASAWA, Miho (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Educational Differentials in Divorce in JapanMORIIZUMI, Rie (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Married Women’s Foregone Earnings and Its Economic Loss: An Estimation
Using Macro Data

9

General Session 8 (Room No. 201)
Chair：TANADA, Hirofumi（Waseda University）
TABATA, Tomoko (Hokkaido University)
Analysis of the Regional Male Mortality Rate in Russia
MIKHAIL, Trukhin (Waseda University）
Russian Mortality Trends in XX Century
ISHII, Futoshi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Japanese mortality projections using the Lee-Carter model with age-shifting
structure10