Population Association of Japan
2014 Annual Meeting Program
June 13-15, 2014
Meiji University
Surugadai Campus
Kanda-Surugadai 1-1, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo

President・Chair, Organizing Committee
ANZO, Shinji

Day

Program Summary
June 14June 13

8:30

8:30Registration

9:00
9:30
10:00

9:30-12:30
Panel Session 1
Panel Session 2
Panel Session 3
General Session A

10:30
11:00
11:30

June 15

Liberty Tower
13th Floor

9:00-12:00
Panel Session 4a
Liberty Tower Theme Session 1
1123
Theme Session 2
1133
General Session E
1136
1134

12:00
12:30
13:00

12:30Registration

8:30- Registration

Liberty Tower
13 th Floor

Liberty Tower

1143
1133
1134
1136

12:00-13:00
Lunch Break

12:30-13:30
Lunch Break

13:30
14:00
14:30

13:30-16:30

15:00

SpecialSessionLi bert y
Tow er
1 1 56

13:30-15:30

GeneralMembership
Meeting

13:00-17:00
Liberty Tower
Panel Session 4b
1143
General Session F
1133
General Session G
1134
General Session H
1136

Liberty
Tower
1011

15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00

17:00-18:00
Council

L ib e r ty
T o we r
4- 5
co n fe r e n ceroom

15:40-18:40
Liberty Tower
1011
Symposium
General Session B
1133
General Session C
1136
1134
General Session D

18:30
19:00

19:00-21:00
Welcome
Reception〜21:00Global Front"GlobalRounge"(17th Floor)

Program Committee
Position

Name

Affiliation

Chair

INABA, Hisashi

The University of Tokyo

Vice-ChairISHII, Futoshi

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

MemberINOUE, Takashi

Aoyama Gakuin University

MemberKAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi

Tezukayama University

Member

KONISHI, Syoko

The University of Tokyo

MemberSUZUKI, Toru

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Member

WADA, Kohei

Chuo University

Secretary

KAMATA, Kenji

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Population Association of Japan
2014 Annual Meeting Program
Friday 13 June 13：30〜16：30
１２：３０〜

Registration

Special Session
The 4th GIS Tutorial Seminarfor Local Administration
Organizer: INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
Chair: ABE, Takashi (Japan Women's University)
1) Some Methods of Analyzing Small Area Population Statistics: From the Viewpoint of City, Disaster
Prevention, and Welfare Planning・・・INOUE, Takashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)2) Application of GIS for Small-Area Statistics Analysis
・・・KISHI, Masahiro （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
3) A Study on Appropriate Location of Institutions and an Application Example
・・・KAMATA, Kenji（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
4) Benefit to convert Basic Resident Register as geographic information
・・・HASEGAWA, Hirokazu（Niigata City）
5) Application of GIS in Parks and Greenspaces Policies・・・HOSOE, Mayumi（Kashiwa Green Foundation）

Liberty Tower 15th Floor, 1156 room
Surugadai-campus, Meiji University

Population Association of Japan
2014 Annual Meeting Program
Saturday 14 June 9：30〜12：30
8：30〜

Registration（Liberty Tower 13th Floor）

Panel Session 1 (12th Floor, 1123 room)
A Paradigm Shift in Fertility Research: Revisit the Driving Forces to Increase the Number of Births＜Organizer＞ KATO, Akihiko（Meiji University）<Chair・Discussant> MATSUDA, Shigeki（Chukyo University）<Discussant> HIRAI, Shoko（Kobe University）
1) What are the Conditions for Recovering Replacement-Level Fertility?
・・・HARA, Toshihiko（Sapporo City University）
2) Marriage and Fertility: Retreat from reproduction leads to refrain from marriage
・・・IWASAWA, Miho（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
3) Female Labor Force Participation and Fertility: Patterns and Covariates from Japanese Genderand Generation Survey 2013 ・・・SUGA, Keita（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
4) Family and Fertility: Strong Family and the Reproduction of Generations
・・・KATO, Akihiko（Meiji University）

Panel Session 2 (13th Floor, 1133 room)
Historical Demography and Historical GIS: A Challenge of Taiwan Project＜Organizer＞ KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi（Tezukayama University）＜Chair＞ HAYASHI, Reiko（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）<Discussant> KUROSU, Satomi（Reitaku University）・SUZUKI, Toru（National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
1) Perspectives of GIS-based historical demography in Taiwan: Spatial distribution of fertility andlife expectancy during the Japanese colonial period ・・・I-chun Fan, Ta-Chien Chan, Hsiung-Ming
Liao and Yu-Lin Huang (GIS Center, Research Center of Humanity and Social Science, Academia
Sinica)2) Spouses

family socio-demographic background and their marriage choices in six northern

Taiwanese villages, 1906-1945 ・ ・ ・ Wen-Shan Yang (Institute of Sociology and Program for
Historical Demography, Academia Sinica)
3) Regional variation of marriage patterns in Taiwan: A re-consideration with additional data
・・・Chun-Hao Li （Dept. of Social and Policy Sciences, Yuan Ze University）
4) The cowpox vaccination and its impact in colonial Taiwan: a review of vaccination police anddemographic impacts ・・・Michael Shiyung Liu (Institute of Taiwan History & Research Center of
Humanity and Social Science, Academia Sinica)

Panel Session 3 (13th Floor, 1136 room)
What is the really effective economic policy to reverse the fertility decline in Japan?
＜Organizer＞ WADA, Kohei, ABE, Masahiro and MATSUURA, TSUKASA（Chuo University）＜Chair＞ ABE, Masahiro（Chuo University）<Discussant> MOMOTA, Akira（University of Tsukuba）・MIZUOCHI, Masaaki（Nanzan University）
1) Regarding measures to cope with declining number of children・・・NAKAI, Masayuki (Ministry Health, Labour and Welfare)2) Fertility Choice and Economic Growth ・・・KIMURA, Masako (Nagoya City University)3) Extremely small point society will come? -Population migration and fertility rate・・・KATO, Hisakazu （Meiji University）
4) The Effect of Children on Happiness for Parents -An Analysis of using World Value Survey・・・MATSUURA, TSUKASA（Chuo University） and KAGEYAMA, Junji(Meikai University)5) HRM of Family-Friendly Firms ・・・ABE, Masahiro (Chuo University), KODAMA, N. (Hitotsubashi
University), SAITO, T. (Meiji Gakuin University) and ASAI, Y. (The University of Tokyo)

General Session A (13th Floor, 1134 room)∇ A１ East Asia I ＜Chair＞HAYASE, Yasuko（Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.）1) Mother's Employment and Childcare Services in South Korea
・・・KABE, Shigesaburo （Japan Center for Economic Research）
2) Structural analysis of the change in the number of births in South Korea
・・・MOON, Hoil （Osaka University）
3) The Timing of First Marriage and Family Formation in Japan and Korea
・・・Cho, Sungho （Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs） and TSUYA, Noriko(Keio University)∇ A２ East Asia II ＜Chair＞WAKABAYASHI, Keiko （Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology）
3) Recent Trends in China's Population Policy ・・・YIN, Hao（Fukuoka Women s University）
4) Influence on the demographic shift by the Chinese one-child policy: Based on a sociological survey of Hong
Kong ・・・NIE, Haisong （Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology）
5) The Lowest-low Fertility of Hong Kong from The View of Micro Known Birth・・・LEUNG, Nancy Sze （Ritsumeikan University）

12:30-13:30 Lunch Break
13:30-15:30 General Membership Meeting (1st Floor, 1011 room)Saturday 14 June 15：40〜18：40
Symposium (1st Floor, 1011 room)
A Paradigm Shift in Family Policy: For Policy Development Contributing to Increase in Babies＜Organizer＞ TAKAHASHI, Shigesato （Meiji University）＜Chair＞ ANZO, Shinji （Meiji University）<Discussant> HARA, Toshihiko（Sapporo City University）
Keynote Speech ・・・MORI, Masako (Minister of State for the Social Affairs, Cabinet Office)1) Structure and trend of the low fertility in Japan: an analysis from demographic view point
・・・KANEKO, Ryuichi （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
2) Factors to contribute demographic transition of micro population from Obstetrical view point
・・・SAOTOME, T. Tomoko (Kanagawa Prefectural Shiomidai Hospital)
3) Mismatch of the actual situation and the main target and marriage of the policy: from theviewpoint of marriage and birth study・・・MATSUDA, Shigeki（Chukyo University）
4) A Pro-natalist Policy and its Effects on the Formation of Strong Families and Communities
・・・KATO, Akihiko（Meiji University）

General Session B (13th Floor, 1133 room)∇ B１ Historical Demography I ＜Chair＞ KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi（Tezukayama University）
1) The regional diversity of age at first marriage and divorce
・・・NAKAJIMA, Mitsuhiro （Kobe University）
2) Managemant and Revitalization of Abandoned Farmsteads in Premodern South Kanto Region;
Household Life Cycle Managemant System of Japanese Communities
・・・TOISHI, Nanami （The University of Tokyo）
3) The life courses of women in the Tokugawa period ― perspective from historical demography
・・・TAKAHASHI, Miyuki （Rissho University）∇ B２ Historical Demography II ＜Chair＞KITO, Hiroshi （Sophia University）
3) Relation of midwives activities and infant mortality from Meiji Era − A study of Shimane
Prefecture− ・・・MIYAMOTO, Kyoko （Shimane University）
4) Accuracy of births and deaths data in comparing prefectural life expectancies: Long term change of births
and infant-newborn mortality data in Okinawa ・・・OHMI, Kenichi （Department of Health Promotion, National
Institute of Public Health）
5) Drastic decrease in smallpox mortality after the introduction of vaccination in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan・・・KAWAGUCHI, Hiroshi（Tezukayama University）

General Session C （13th Floor, 1136 room）∇ C１ Regional Demography I ＜Chair＞HIROSIMA, Kiyosi （Shimane University）
1) An Analysis of Relationships among Regional Marriage/Marital Fertility and Socioeconomic
Environments at the Post Demographic Transition period
・・・KAMATA, Kenji （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
2) Regional population changes in Japan and demographic transition model・・・YAMAUCHI, Masakazu （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
3) On the Aging by Region and Its Demographic Factors
・・・KOIKE, Shiro （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）∇ C2 Regional Demography II ＜Chair＞TAKAHASHI, Shinichi （Niigata Sanygo University）
4) Rising Sex Ratio of Local Populations: Its Determinants and Consequences
・・・HIROSIMA, Kiyosi （Shimane University）
5) Projection of the Regional Population by the Growth Matrix of Rogers Model
・・・IIZUKA, Kenta （Chuo University）
6) Population Mobility, Community Cohesion, and Health Disparities among the Urban Elderly in Japan:
A Multilevel Analysis ・・・NAKAGAWA, Masataka （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

General Session D （13th Floor, 1134 room）∇ D１ Population Statistics ＜Chair＞KAWASAKI, Shigeru （Nihon University）
1) Age Range in Denominator of Child-Woman Ratio on Population Projections by Municipality
・・・MARUYAMA, Yohei （Shinjuku Institute for Policy Studies）
2) Accuracy of Data of working Population based on Establishment surveys
・・・YAMADA, Shigeru （Kokushikan University）
3) The draft strategic plan for the 2015 Population Census・・・HODAKA, Hiroyuki （Statistics Bureau）∇ D2 Mortality ＜Chair＞INABA, Hisashi （The University of Tokyo）
4) Development of the Japanese Mortality Database (JMD) and Its Application to Demographic
Analyses ・・・ISHII, Futoshi （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
5) Consideration on Heterogeneity of Mortality Using the Extended Lee-Carter Models
・・・IGAWA, Takayuki （PrincewaterhouseCoopers Aarata）
6) Biophysical analyses for a human-aging cohort ・・・SUDA, Hitoshi （Tokai University）

19:00-21:00
Welcome Reception（Global Front "Global Rounge", 17th Floor）

Population Association of Japan
2014 Annual Meeting Program
9：00〜12：00
Sunday 15 June
Panel Session 4a (14th Floor, 1143 room) ICPD beyond 2014
Part I : Reproductive Health/Rights, Population and Development Agenda since Cairo 1994
＜Organizer＞ ATOH, Makoto （Health, labour and Welfare Statistics Association）・
IKEGAMI, Kiyoko （Nihon University）<Chair> IKEGAMI, Kiyoko （Nihon University）・ATOH, Makoto （Health, labour and Welfare Statistics Association）
1) Population- Development Issues and Reproductive Health and Rights
・・・ATOH, Makoto （Health, labour and Welfare Statistics Association）
2) 20 Years after the ICPD in Cairo – A Case of Ghana
・・・NISHIDA, Ryoko （Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning ）3) Population- Development Issues in the Islamic Region
・・・SATO, Tokiko（Nagoya University of Foreign Studies）
4) Population-Development Issues in Brazil: A review of the 20 years post-Cairo
・・・ONUKI, Daisuke （Tokai University）
5) Issues of reproductive health/rights in Japan ・・・IKEGAMI, Kiyoko （Nihon University）<Special Discussant>
IPPF's global perspective on progress in the last 20 years, challenges and actions for future
・・・MELESSE, Tewodros （International Planned Parenthood Federation - IPPF）

Theme Session 1 (13th Floor, 1133 room)
Fecundity and Population＜Organizer＞ KONISHI, Shoko （The University of Tokyo）<Chair> TAKASAKA, Koichi （Kyorin University）<Discussant> NAKAZAWA, Minato （Kobe University）・MORIKI, Yoshie （International Christian University ）1) Postponement of Pregnancy Attempt and Fertility Decline
・・・SENDA, Yukiko （Tohoku Gakuin University）
2) The application of the Current-duration approach in Japan・・・KONISHI, Shoko （The University of Tokyo）・TAMAKI, Emi （Ritsumeikan University）
3) Lifestyle Factors and Menstrual Cycle Disruption: Preliminary Results from the Internet Survey
・・・TAMAKI, Emi （Ritsumeikan University）・KONISHI, Shoko （The University of Tokyo）
4) The effect of parabens exposure on the menstrual cycle
・・・NISHIHAMA, Yukiko (The University of Tokyo)・IIDA, A. (Kitasato University)・YOSHINAGA, J.
(The University of Tokyo)・IMAI, H. (Tokyo Health Care University)・KONISHI, S. （The Universityof Tokyo）・NAKAJIMA, D.・YONEYAMA, M.・SHIRAISHI, H. （The University of Tokyo）

Theme Session 2 (13th Floor, 1134 room)
Religion and Population＜Organizer・Chair＞ KOJIMA, Hiroshi （Waseda University）<Discussant> HAYASE, Yasuko （Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, ret.）<Discussant> SUZUKI, Toru （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
1) Future Estimate of Muslim Population ・・・TANADA, Hirofumi （Waseda University）
2) How is Religion Related to Population Distribution and Migration? Examples from Japan・・・ARATAME, Natsumi （Takushoku University）
3) Role of Religious Organization in International Migration: Case of Mexican Catholic Church for
Defense of Trans- migrants from Central America・・・MISAWA, Takehiro （Tsuda College）
4) Religion and Health in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis of the EASS2010
・・・KOJIMA, Hiroshi （Waseda University）

General Session E （13th Floor, 1136 room）∇ E１ Migration ＜Chair＞KOIKE, Shiro （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
1) The Change of Gender Relations Caused by the Inflow of Immigrant Women in Japan・・・KOREKAWA, Yu （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
2) Destination choice of the 2005-2010 immigration and inter-prefectural migration of Japan s
foreign residents ・ ・ ・ ISHIKAWA, Yoshitaka （ Kyoto University ） ・ TAKESHITA, S. （ Aichi Gakuin
University）・HANAOKA, K. （Tohoku University）
3) Population Migration of Tokyo after 1990 s・・・NAKAGAWA, Satoshi （Kobe University）∇ E2 Marriage ＜Chair＞KATO, Akihiko （Meiji University）
4) Women s Education and Marriage Behavior: The Effect of Attending Girls
College, and Women

high School, Juniors University ・・・NAKAMURA, Mariko （Meiji University）

5) Reinvestigating the Relationship between Female Education and Divorce Behavior in Japan・・・MOTEGI, Akira （The University of Tokyo）
6) Remarriage in Japan: A First Look
・・・IWASAWA, Miho （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）・RAYMO, James (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Sunday 15 June

13：00〜17：00

Panel Session 4b (14th Floor, 1143 room) ICPD beyond 2014
Part II : Diversification of Global Population Issues and Post 2015 Development Agenda＜Organizer＞ HAYASHI, Reiko （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）<Chair> SATO, Ryuzaburo （Chuo University）<Discussant> SAZAKI, Junko (UNFPA Tokyo Office)・YAMAYA, Hiroyuki (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
1) Recent Trends in Japanese Global Health Policies
・・・YAMAUCHI, Kazushi （Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare）
2) Global Aging -from the perspective of Health Services Research・・・TAMIYA, Nanako （University of Tsukuba）
3) Urbanization and Mega-Cities in Developing Countries
・・・ARATAME, Natsumi （Takushoku University）
4) Governance and Enhancement of Demographic Statistics Data
・・・NISHI, Fumihiko （Statistical Research and Training Institute）
5) International migration as a global issue ・・・HAYASHI, Reiko （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

General Session F （13th Floor, 1133 room）∇ F１ Fertility Ⅰ ＜Chair＞TSUYA, Noriko （Keio University）
1) Increasing Life Term Single Rate and its Effect to the Fertility Rate
・・・IHARA, Hajime （Statistical Research and Training Institute）
2) Husband

s Domestic Work Participation and Second Birth Intensity
・・・FUKUDA, Setsuya （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

3) The Effect of the Act on Advancement of Measures to Support Raising Next-Generation Children
on Childbirth and Women s Work: An Analysis Using Longitudinal Survey of Adults in 21stCentury・・・MIZUOCHI, Masaaki （Nanzan University）
4) Time Allocation of Couples and Children ・・・YOSHIDA, Chizu （Kanto Gakuin University）∇ F2 Fertility Ⅱ ＜Chair＞IWASAWA, Miho （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
5) Fertility Desires and Fertility Behavior in Japan ・・・TSUYA, Noriko （Keio University）
6) Female university students and their knowledge of reproduction -from a survey of 1113 female
students in Keihanshinn-Area ・・・MAEDA, Masako （Konan University）
7) Change of demographic conditions of children – using census data ・・・SAKAI, Hiromichi (Saitama Prefectural University)
8) Pronatalist Policies and Awareness on Population Problems: The Case of Japan in About 1940
・・・IMAI, Hiroyuki （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）

General Session G （13th Floor, 1134 room）∇ G１ Population EconomicsⅠ ＜Chair＞OGAWA, Naohiro （Nihon University）
1) Causes of and Economic countermeasures for declining birthrate in Japan・・・KASAHARA, Hiroyoshi
2) An Analysis on the Impact of the Falling Birth Rate and the Aging Population with Abridged
Demo-Econometric Model ・・・OTSUKA, Tomomi （Nihon University）
3) Difficulty of Male Marriage and Farm Household Income in Japan
・・・NISHIMURA, Noriko （Tottori University of Environmental Studies ）・SENDA, Tetsuji （Kyoto University）∇ G2 Population Economics Ⅱ ＜Chair＞KATO, Hisakazu （Meiji University）
4) Transitions into retirement based on Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)・・・OGAWA, Naohiro （Nihon University）・MATSUKURA, Rikiya （Nihon University）
5) Simulation for the Consumers Decision-making Process of Purchase by the Agent Based

Model ・・・INOUE, Nozomu （Chuo University）
6) The analysis concerning the factors affecting education costs
・・・MASUDA, Mikito (Cabinet Office)7) Wife s labor supply analysis: Evidence from the Employment Status Survey in Japan
・・・TANAKA, Noriko （Ochanomizu University）

General Session H （13th Floor, 1136 room）∇ H１ Formal Demography ＜Chair＞TAKAHASHI, Shigesato （Meiji University）
1) Dependency ratios adjusted by age-specific medical cost and life expectancy
・・・HAMAMATSU, Yuri ・ UMEZAKI, Masahiro （The University of Tokyo）・
KANEKO, Ryuichi （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
2) A population projection based on the parameter changes of mathematical models of fertility
and mortality, forecasted by time-series analysis ・・・NAKAZAWA, Minato （Kobe University）
3) Methodological Issues regarding Household Projections for Japan・・・SUZUKI, Toru （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）∇ H2 Aging ＜Chair＞KANEKO, Ryuichi （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
4) A Demographic Analysis of Health Expectancy by Diseases in Japan・・・BEPPU, Motomi （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）・TAKAHASHI, Shigesato （Meiji University）
5) Aging-socioeconomic factors and influence on remainder of one s life of suicide
・・・KANEKO, Yoshihiro （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research）
6) Characteristics of changes of birth and death rates in the early phase of the demographictransition in Japan ・・・TAKAHASHI, Shinichi (Niigata Sangyo University)

Logistic Information about the 66th Annual Meetingof the Population Association of Japan, Tokyo, June 13–15, 2014
(1) Venue: Meiji University, Surugadai Campus[The URL of Meiji University is: http://www.meiji.ac.jp/cip/english/about/campus/index.html.](2) Registration Fee: 4,000 JPY, payable in cash at the meeting venue[Registration fee for participants residing in Japan is 5,000 JPY if paid at the venue, and 4,000 JPY if
pre-paid. For participants from overseas, the pre-registration fee is applied.]* Registration fee for participants of panel session is free.

(3) PAJ Annual Meeting Mixer: Will be held in the evening of June 14 Saturday at “Global
Lounge” of the Surugadai Campus (“Global Front”) of Meiji University, starting at 19:00. The
fee is 4,000 JPY per person including buffet dinner and drinks, payable in cash at the time ofregistration.
[The fee for the mixer for participants in Japan is 5,000 JPY per person if paid at thevenue—4,000 JPY if pre-paid—but the prepaid amount is applied to participants fromoverseas.] * The fee for the mixer for participants of the organized session who greet at themixer, is free.
(4) Annual Meeting Program: A preliminary program of the 66th PAJ annual meeting will be
uploaded to the PAJ website at around the end of May 2014.
(5) Time Duration for Oral Presentation: 25 minutes in total per presentation—15 minutes forpresentation, plus 10 minutes for Q & A following the presentation.
(6) Handouts for Oral Presentation: If you choose to distribute hard copies of your handout,
please prepare 70 copies and hand them to attendants/assistants assigned by the organizer atthe venue.
(7) PowerPoint File for Oral Presentation: Presenters are allowed to use PowerPoint files fortheir oral presentation. Please bring your PPT file stored in a USB flush memory and upload it
before your session. The organizer will prepare a PC (with OS being Windows) and a
projector at each room of the meeting venue (participants are not allowed to bring in his/her
own PC and projector).
(8) Accommodation: No specific arrangements are made by the organizer of the meeting.
Please make personal arrangements by yourself.
(9) Contact Information of the 66th PAJ Annual Meeting Organizing Committee: The
organizer of the meeting is Professor Shinji ANZO. If you need to contact Professor Anzo
during the meeting, his contact information is as follows:[Email] anzo@meiji.ac.jp