Population Association of JapanThe 54th Annual Meeting

Program1
Liberty Tower at Meiji University, Tokyo
June 8-9, 2002

Saturday, June 8Registration

9:00 -1st floor Lobby

SPECIAL SESSION A

9:30-12:30

Rm.1113 (11th floor)"Demographic Information in the 21st Century: Evaluation and Future Agenda"
Organizer: Shigesato TAKAHASHI, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Chair: Akihiko ITO, Japan Statistical Association
Discussants: Yoshikazu WATANABE, International University of Health and Welfare
Shunichi INOUE, Nihon University

1. 2000 Population Census and Some Related Issues*Michio MATSUMURA, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management,Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
2. Results and Prospects of Studies Based on Public Data**
Nobuko NAGASE, Ochanomizu University
3. Results and Prospects of Population Projections**
Akira ISHIKAWA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
4. Results and Prospects of Studies Using Government Data**
Yasuhiko SAITO, Nihon University
REGULAR SESSION 1

9:30-12:30

Rm.1116 (11th floor)

Chair: Haruo SAGAZA, Waseda University

1. Rural Origins and Religious Networks of Migrants into Nineteenth Century Kyoto
Kiyoshi HAMANO, Kansai University
2. Resional Differentials in Marriage and Fertility in Nineteenth Century Japan
Satomi KUROSU, Reitaku University
3. Regional Differentials in Household Structure in Nineteenth Century Japan
Aoi OKADA, Teikyo University
Chair: Reiko TSUBOUCHI, Ryukoku University

4. Socio-economic Backgrounds of Population Growth in 19th-Century Oku-Aizu Region*
Hiroshi KAWAGUCHI, Tezukayama University
5. Geographic Differences in Demographic Variables in Iwami Region*
Kiyosi HIROSIMA, Shimane University
1* Indicating a title edited by the chair of the Annual Meeting Program Committee.
** Indicating a title given by the chair of the Annual Meeting Program Committee.
1

REGULAR SESSION 2

9:30-12:30

Rm.1123 (12th floor)

Chair: Yoshikuni ISHI, Josai University

1. International Migration in Asia
Yasuko HAYASE, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
2. Labor Market and Migrant Workers in Thailand
Machiko WATANABE, Meikai University
Chair: Yoichi OKAZAKI, Nihon University

3. Migration and Gender in Contemporary China: The Case of Female Migrant Workers from Rural Areas**
LU Xiaoyuan, Josai International University
4. Poverty among Immigrants' Children in the United States*
Yoshimi CHITOSE, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

REGULAR SESSION 39:30-12:30

Rm. 1126 (12th floor)

Chair: Koichi TAKASAKA, Kyorin University

1. Population Decrease and Environmental Pollution
Kohei KASAI, Kyoto Sangyou University
2. Housing Conditions and Residential Choice*
Kei'ichiro MATSUSHITA, Kansai University
3. Income Differences by Region in Japan*
Katsuhisa KOJIMA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Chair: Minoru OKADA

4. Japan's Demographic Transition and Its International Implications**Toshio KURODA, Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning
5. Conditions for Population Increase: Messages from the Bible*
Kenju UTSUMI, Aizu UniversityPAJ Board of Director's Meeting

12:30-13:30

23rd floor Hall

Welcome Speech from the Host Organization

13:30-13:40

1st floor Liberty Hall

General Membership Meeting

13:40-14:30

1st floor Liberty Hall

2

SYMPOSIUM

14.30-17:30

1st floor Liberty Hall

"Demography of Marriage: How Much Will Non-marriage and Divorce Increase in Japan?"
Organizer: Hiroyuki KANEKIYO, Meiji University
Chair: Noriko TSUYA, Keio University
Discussants: Shigemi KONO, Reitaku University
Yoshio HIGUCHI, Keio University

1. Recent Trends of Non-marriage and Divorce*Hisakazu KATO, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research2. Causes and Backgrounds of Increasing Non-marriage**Naohiro OGAWA, Nihon University
3. Causes and Backgrounds of Increasing Divorce*
Shinji ANZO, Meiji University

Meeting Participants' Photo Session

17:30-18:00

1st floor Lobby

Welcome Party

18:00-20:00

23rd floor Salon Shikon

Registration

8:30-

1st floor Lobby

THEME SESSION 1

9:00-12:30

Rm. 1113 (11th floor)

Sunday, June 9th"Historical Demography of Natural Disaster, Epidemic, and Famine"
Organizer & Chair: Hiroshi KITO, Sophia University

1. Trends of Tuberculosis in Japan during the Last 100 Years*Kazuo IKEDA, Tokyo Metropolitan Research Laboratory of Public HealthYoko NADAOKA, Tokyo Metropolitan Research Laboratory of Public Health
Shusuke KURASHINA, Care Center Ami for the Elderly*
2. Demographic Effects of Natural Disasters and Socioeconomic Factors in Pre-modern Europe*
Toshiko AKAZAWA, Nasu University
3. Urban Morbidity in 19th-century England
Minoru YASUMOTO, Komazawa University
4. Famine in Japan's Population History
Osamu SAITO, Hitotsubashi University
Kazutomo HITAI, Hitotsubashi University
5. Population Change in the Pre-transitional Stage
Hiroshi OHBUCHI, Chuo University
6. The Demographic Transition Theory in Japanese Perspective
Futoshi KINOSHITA, Tsukuba University

3

REGULAR SESSION 4

9:00-12:30

Rm. 1116 (11th floor)

Chair: Ki'ichi YAMAGUCHI

1. Projection of Marriage and Fertility Based on the Survey of Experts on Prospects of Fertility Decline*
Rie MORIIZUMI, Chuo University
2. Child-rearing Strategies from a Gender Perspective
Mutsuko TENDO, Tokyo Woman’s Christian University
3. Public Opinion on Influences of Fertility Decline
Hiromichi SAKAI, Saitama Prefectural University
Chair: Motofumi MASAKI, Showa University

4. Determinants of Transition to First Birth: The Cases of the Netherlands and Japan*
Eiko MATSUO, University of Groningen
5. Recent Fertility Patterns in Developed Countries
Ryuzaburo SATO, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Eriko BANDO, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
6. Delayed Marriage in Developed Countries*
Ryusuke SHIMANAKA, Reitaku University
7. The Economic Crisis and Desired Fertility in Thailand
Noriko TSUYA, Keio University

REGULAR SESSION 5

9:00-12:30

Rm. 1123 (12th floor)

Chair: Toshio SHIGEMATSU, Fukuoka University

1. An Analysis of Marriage Duration among Japanese Couples via Multi-state Nuptiality Table*
Motomi BEPPU, Reitaku University
2. Forecasting Cohort Life Tables for JapanZenji NANJO, Tohoku-gakuin University
3. Recent Trends of Internal Migration Based on Migration Statistics*
Yuji ESAKI, Senshu University
Hachiro NISHIOKA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Tamotsu OoBA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Nobuhiko KOBAYASHI, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
4. Future Trends of Regional Population Based on the Population Projections for Prefectures*
Hachiro NISHIOKA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Tamotsu OoBA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Yuji ESAKI, Senshu University
Nobuhiko KOBAYASHI, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Chair: Hisashi INABA, Tokyo University

5. On Bias of the Results of 2000 Population Census of Japan*
Shigeru YAMADA, Kokushikan University
6. Estimation of Replacement Migration**Tomomi OTSUKA, Nihon University47. Cohort and Period Models of Fertility
Toru SUZUKI, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

REGULAR SESSION 6

9:00-12:30

Rm. 1126 (12th floor)

Chair: Hidehiko HAMA

1. An Analysis of Inter-prefectural OD Table and Net-migration by Age among Prefectures in Japan*
Tamotsu OoBA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
2. Changes in Migratory Movements by Reason in Hiroshima Prefecture, 1966-2000*
Kaoru ITO, Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University
Chair: Chizuko YAMAMOTO

3. Return Migration in Kushiro City: An Analysis of Resident Registration Data
Masato SHIMIZU, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
4. Population Distribution and Migration during the 1920s and 1930s in Japan*
Satoshi NAKAGAWA, Kobe University
Shinichi TAKAHASHI, Kobe University
Chair: Yoshihiro TSUBOUCHI, Konan Women's University

5. Consanguineous Marriage and Fertility in Islamic Countries
Hiroshi KOJIMA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
6. Muslim Populations in Southeast AsiaHirofumi TANADA, Waseda University

Lunch Time

12:30-13:30

SPECIAL SESSION B

13:30-17:00

Rm. 1113 (11th floor)"The Second Demographic Transition: Europe and Japan"
Organizer: Makoto ATOH, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Chair: Motosuke SUGINO, Kyushu Kyoritsu University
Discussants: Hiromichi SAKAI, Saitama Prefectural University
Machiko YANAGISHITA, Josai International University

1. Cohabitation and Non-marital Childbearing: Is the Institution of Marriage Weakening in Japan?*
Miho IWASAWA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
2. Childless Couples and Couples with One Child: Is the Two-children Norm Weakening in Japan?**Toshihiko HARA, Hokkaido Tokai University
3. Delay of Childbearing among Women: Is Catching-up in Their 30s Possible?**Kohei WADA, Chuo University
4. Increasing Individuation: Does Post-materialist Values Lower Fertility?**
Nobutaka FUKUDA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

5

THEME SESSION 2

13:30-17:00

Rm. 1116 (11th floor)"Demography of Population Concentration"
Organizer & Chair: Shinichi TAKAHASHI, Kobe University

1. Population Concentration from the Perspective of Regional Structures of Migration**Takashi ABE, Japan Women's University
2. The Postwar Migration Turnarounds in Japan
Takashi INOUE, Aoyama Gakuin University
3. The Welfare Economics of Population Concentration*
Hiroki NOGAMI, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
4. Changing Migration Patterns in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area**Yoshitaka ISHIKAWA, Kyoto University
5. Population Projection of Tokyo under the "After Nature" Scenarios*Moriyuki OE, Keio University
6. Area Variations in Fertility in Tokyo with Respect to Land Value, Residential, and Education Components*
Kyoko TANAKA, Saitama University
7. Urbanization in Asia: The Present and the Future*
Natsumi ARATAME, Takushoku University

REGULAR SESSION 7

13:30-7:00

Rm.1123 (12th floor)

Chair: Jin MORIOKA, Komazawa University

1. Economic Analysis of Aging Based on the General Equilibrium Growth Accounting Method*
Mitoshi YAMAGUCHI, Kobe University
2. Aging and Economic Growth
Ryoko MOROZUMI, The University of Tokyo
3. Fertility and Human Capital under Increasing Uncertainty*
Keisuke SASAKI, The University of Tokyo
Chair: Koichi EMI, Hitotsubashi University

4. Roles of Married Women in Caring Elderly Parents With Special Reference to External Caregivers*
Yasuyo KOYAMA, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
5. Aging of Rural Population in China
LOU Jie, Waseda University

REGULAR SESSION 8

13:30-17:00

Chair: Takeharu KANEKO

1. Intra-familial Time Allocation in Rural Japanese Households before World WarⅡ*
Yoshie KOBAYASHI, Keio University
6Rm.1126 (12th floor)2. Determinants of Leaving Home in Japan
Setsuya FUKUDA, Meiji University
3. Surviving Number of Kin: An Analysis of Survey Data*
Yoshikazu WATANABE, International University of Health and Welfare
Chair: Ryoichi SUZUKI, Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning

4. Population Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Policy Statuses and Fertility Transition*
Keita OHASHI, University of Montreal
5. Reproductive Health and Rights: A Study of The International Human Rights Law
Mayumi TANIGUCHI, Osaka University
6. Demographic Implications of Reproductive Technologies in Japan
Yukari SEMBA, Waseda University7