Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders

Vaccines & Therapeutics Outlook
Part II: Scenarios and Implications

29 September 2020

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

COVID-19 BCG Perspectives Series

COVID-19

Objectives of this document
COVID-19 is a global
societal crisis

Leaders need to drive an integrated
response to navigate the crisis

We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak isfirst and foremost a societal crisis, threatening
lives and the well-being of our global community.
Society now, more than ever, needs to collaborate
to protect people’s lives and health, manage midterm implications, and search for lasting solutions.

It is the duty of health, political, societal, and businessleaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
government action, sector impact, and company
action is playing out. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
we see the crisis manifesting itself.

Source: BCG

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

BCG Perspectives

Summary snapshot | Restart progression at a glance
As of 27 Sep 2020

Consumer Activity

Global epidemic snapshot

33M
# of
cases

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

297K

# of
daily cases1

Mobility

9.1M

997K

# of
active cases# offatalities

June

July

Aug

Sep4

Americas

1.6x

1.7x

1.0x

0.8x

Europe

0.8x

1.0x

1.7x

1.8x

Asia3

2.0x

1.7x

1.4x

1.3x

2020
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

IMF (24 June)-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6-10.2%
Baseline6 1.3%
-8.0%

2.0%

-5.8%

0.7%
1.0%

-4.5%

6.0%
5.8%

Mobility7(month vs. Jan'20)

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking8 (YoY)

Stock market performance
US

June
-19%

July
-19%

August-19%

Europe

-25%

-17%

-17%

Japan

-13%

-13%

-13%

US

-73%

-76%

-69%

UK

-92%

-86%

-85%

China

-45%

-26%

-2%

Sales

Economic Impact
GDP forecasts (%)

Business Impact

Banks58 10USRetail goods
sales9 (excl. auto UK& fuel, YoY)
China

8%

8%

8%

1%

3%

4%

2%

-2%

-1%

Passenger
vehicle sales10
(YoY)

US

-38%

-19%

-27%

Europe

-25%

-19%

-17%

China

2%

9%

6%

Hotel
occupancy11
(YoY)

US

-43%

-36%

-32%

Europe

-73%

-66%

-45%

China

N/A

-19%

-12%

Month end vs. 02 Jan '20

June

July

AugustS&P500

-5%

0%

7%

FTSE100

-19%

-22%

-22%

CHN SSE

-3%

7%

10%

Volatility Index (S&P500)12

2.4x

2.0x

2.1x

US

-20%

-11%

N/A

UK

-17%

-19%

N/A

China

1%

3%

4%

US

50

51

53

EU

48

52

52

China

51

51

52

Steel production (YoY)15

-7%

-3%

0%

International trade
Trade value13(YoY)

Industrial production
Purchasing
manager’s
index14(base = 50)

1. Calculated as 7-day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. As of 27 September 2020; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank,International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 12 April 2020 to 27 Sep 2020; 6. IMF Jan 2020 forecast; 7. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public
transit, retail & recreation, and grocery & pharmacy and compared to a baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 8. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 9. Retail goods sales
includes online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; does not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales data for 2020
over same month in 2019; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 11. Calculated as average occupancy rates compared to same month of previous year; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market
index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous year period; 14. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index thatsummarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 15. Data corresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Sources: JHU CSSE; Our World in Data; WHO; World Bank; IMF; Bloomberg; Google Mobility; US Census Bureau;
Eurostat; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; ACEA actuals; Marklines; ARC ticketing data; STR; Statista; CBOE; OECD; BEA, GACC (customs) China; ONS; BCG

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Epidemic Progression

Executive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives

Severe global economic downturn witnessed in 2020; some green shoots on recovery visible• Economic forecasts indicate a rebound to 2019 GDP levels only by end of 2021 for most leading economies• Unemployment numbers for top economies declining or flattening out; US: temporary jobs coming back, permanent job losses slightly increasing• Retail and recreation mobility recovering fastest with some countries2 already above pre-crisis levels; lower recovery of workplace mobility indicates WFH3 adoption• In the US, business activity across all sectors, except energy, has rebounded to previous year levels; in Europe, automotive & mobility showing strong rebound• 4 (out of 24)4 sectors are currently above pre-crisis TSR5 levels; 7 sectors have a significant share6 of companies with >15% default risk

We believe during
this crisis leadersneed to think along
two dimensions:

Taking an integrated perspective on
health/medical progression,
governmental responses, societal
reactions, and economic implications
to understand business/sector impacts

Thinking multitimescale in a
Flatten-Fight-Futurelogic

1. Initial data observed in the early stages of phase 3 trials may lead to restricted approvals starting in Q4 2020; 2. E.g., Germany and Italy in Europe; 3. WFH: Work from home; 4. Semiconductors, Retailing, Household products andPharma; 5. TSR: Total Shareholder Return; 6. Retailing, Materials, Auto, Transport, Hospitality, Real estate, and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies with probability of default > 15%

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Leaders need to develop an action agenda with potential future scenarios – driven by a combination of healthcare technology outcomes and societal responses• Daily case growth slowing globally; however, Asia continues to grow, and several European countries are witnessing resurgence• 9 vaccine candidates in Phase III; some may get emergency use authorizations starting in Q4 20201; multiple promising therapeutics in clinical trials• Several factors/elements of healthcare technology and societal response as well as their interplay will determine four potential scenarios for 2021
• (1) Fast Recovery: Phased vaccine approvals followed by organized governmental response leads to rapid adoption, setting up the path for a speedy recovery• (2) Cautious Confidence: Vaccine benefits in healthy adults provide impetus for restart; lower efficacy for other population segments• (3) False Euphoria: Minor successes in vaccines/therapeutics are lauded by society; misplaced euphoria leads to reduced caution, paving way for case flare-ups• (4) Prolonged Draught: Low efficacy in vaccine candidates impacts morale; grim outlook leads to adoption of altered lives with social distancing embedded• Public and business leaders need to actively deploy a set of no-regret moves and a specific scenario-linked action agenda

Questions on every public and business leader's mind right now
Non-exhaustive

When will we have asafe and effective
COVID-19 vaccine andwhat will it look like?

• What factors will drive early authorizations and subsequent approvals?
• When will a vaccine likely be widely available?
• Will vaccine efficacy and safety outcomes impact vaccine adoption patterns andhealthcare response priorities?
• What are the pre-conditions to ensure broad availability & distribution?
Focus for the previous edition• What potential scenarios emerge from healthcare technology and societal response outcomes?

2

What choices andimplications
emerge for public andbusiness leaders?

• What is the possible virus control, and social and economic revival outlook for each scenario?
• How should public leaders think about communication strategies and ensuring equitable accessacross scenarios?
• How should business leaders think about safeguarding their employees and planning for apotentially tumultuous 2021?
• What 'no-regret moves' do leaders need to take now?
Focus for the current edition
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Source: BCG

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

1

• What is the current development landscape across leading COVID-19 pharmaceuticalcountermeasures (vaccines & therapeutics)?

Potential scenarios for the new reality
Implications for public and business leaders

Updated analyses and impact
Economic and business impact
Trends in mobility and consumer activity

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics

Epidemic progression | Daily case growth slowing globally;
Asia continues to grow

EPIDEMICPROGRESSION

As of 27 Sep 2020

Key observations

300,000

33M

250,000

North
AmericaSouth
AmericaSouth
America
Asia1

200,000
150,000

Africa100,000

Asia1

Month-onmonth growthof new cases2

9.1M (28%)# of active cases(% of confirmed cases)

North
America

50,0000# of confirmed cases

Europe2Mar

Africa997k

Europe
June

Mar
Apr

Apr
May

May
June

July

~235%

~20%

~50%

~60%

Aug

27 Sep# of fatalities~15% ~10%

1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean); 2. Calculated as growth in monthly average of daily cases as compared to previous month;
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG

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Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)

De-averaged view | Several European countries witnessing resurgence

EPIDEMICPROGRESSION

As of 27 Sep 2020
Data shown only for top 20 countries (by GDP) with >30 daily new cases per million

Daily new cases per million1

Brazil and US showing decline compared topeak case levels
Daily new cases per million1

260

Spain

240

260
240
220

220
200

France180
160

Netherlands

140

200
180
160

120

120

100

100

UK

80
60

Switzerland

40

40

0
Mar

0
Jun

Jul

Aug

27 SepIndia
RussiaMexicoCanada60
20

May

Brazil

80

20
Apr

US

140

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

27 SepNote: Page shows de-averaged view of top 20 countries (by GDP), of which 11 have daily cases/M >30; other 9 countries have <30 daily cases/M (Italy (27), Germany (22), Turkey (20), Indonesia(16), Saudi Arabia (14), Japan (3), South Korea(2), Australia (1), China (0))
1. Calculated as a 7-day rolling average; Source: Our World in Data; BCG

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Europe: Several countries witnessing resurgence,with some exceeding previous case peaks

Unprecedented response globally on scale and speed of R&D efforts;
vaccine, therapeutic, and diagnostic outcomes key to containing the virus
Sep 24, 2020

First single dose vaccine, by J&J,
enters Phase III in US; plan to
manufacture 1 bn+ doses by next year

Sep 16, 2020

32+ countries have expressedinterest in testing and obtaining
Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine

Sep 19, 2020

AstraZeneca trials resume in UK,
Brazil, India and South Africa,
remain paused in the US

Sep 15, 2020

In global vaccine race, Chinese vaccine
by Sinopharm gets first foreign
emergency use approval from UAE

Sep 27, 2020

Sep 16, 2020

Fauci says: We are focusing heavily
now on prevention & treatments;
that’s the bridge to the vaccine

New antigen test that can provide
results in 15 min, and costs only $5,
provided EUA1 by US FDA

Sep 16, 2020

US drug maker reports promising
results for a monoclonal antibody;
72% reduction in hospitalization

Sep 22, 2020

India’s first diagnostic kit based ongene editing technology CRISPR
approved for commercial use
8

1. Emergency Use Authorization

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

As of 27 Sep 2020

VACCINES &THERAPEUTICSOUTLOOK

Vaccines & Therapeutics | Summary snapshot

Vaccines

Therapeutics

candidates currently in clinical trials

candidates currently in clinical trials

10

4

40

254

candidates currently in Phase III;in race for EUA1,2 starting Q4'20,
contingent on safety and efficacy profiles

key candidates currently under EUA1,5 in selectcountries; ensuring broad clinical trials, safety,
and efficacy key for further approvals

Q2'21

Q4'20

expected start of broader distribution(beyond targeted population segments)3
in the best-case scenario4

expected broader availability6

1. Emergency Use Authorization; nomenclature may differ across geographies; 2. Estimated timelines for grant of EUA: BioNTec h/Pfizer, Moderna by Q4 '20, Oxford University/AstraZeneca between Q4 '20 &Q1 '21; Sinovac, Sinopharm/BIPB, Sinopharm/WIPB and CanSino by Q1 '21; Janssen (J&J), Novavax and Gamaleya Research Institute to be ascertained; 3. Anyone who wants a vaccine can get a prescription;
4. Estimated for the US; will be subject to a set of preconditions including phase 3 results, manufacturing & distribution setup and scale-up, etc.; 5. EUA for Remdesivir in the US, Japan, Australia (nonexhaustive), Convalescent plasma therapy in the US (non-exhaustive); Dexamethasone in UK, Japan (non-exhaustive); Favipiravir in India, Russia, China (non-exhaustive); 6. First few million doses; Gilead toramp up availability of Remdesivir to 2M by Dec 2020; the US has secured 500k already and pre-booked 90% of September 2020 month's capacity; Additionally, availability basis prescription has started inselect geographies like India, Japan, European Union, etc; Gilead has also signed non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements with generic pharmaceutical manufacturers based in Egypt, India and Pakistan;
Dexamethasone widely available but used generally in severe patients requiring supplemented oxygen support; Source: FDA, WHO, Milken Institute; Biocentury; Company websites, BCG

Further reading
Vaccines & Therapeutic Outlook Part I:
Timelines and Success Factors

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Best-case timelines as of 28 Sep 2020

VACCINES &THERAPEUTICSOUTLOOK

Vaccine fast movers | 10 vaccine candidates already in Phase III
Potential timelines for candidates currently in Phase III
Targeted Ph III
enrollment

212

Phase III1

10

Phase II2

2

Confirm effectiveness

Effectiveness/safety

Phase I/II

Phase I3

11

17

Safety, side effects/dose

Pre-Clinical(WHO, Milken Institute)172

WHO Phase III classification

As of 28 Sep 2020

We are here

BioNTech (Germany), Pfizer (US)~44,000

Moderna, NIH (US)~30,000

Oxford Uni., AstraZeneca5 (UK)~50,000

Janssen ( J&J) (US)~60,000

Q1 2021

Novavax (US)~10,000

Q1 2021Sinovac (China)~9,000

BIPB6 & Sinopharm (China)~15,000

WIPB7 & Sinopharm (China)~15,000

CanSino Biologics (China)~40,000

Gamaleya8 - Sputnik V (Russia)~40,000

Expected EUA4 by
US FDA for one ormore candidates
later this year,
subject to initial
phase III readouts

Russia registers Sputnik V

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Start of phase III trials

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan '21

Start of phased approval process9

Note: The timeline represented is highly dependent on Phase III vaccine results including safety, efficacy data and hence, su bject to change; 1. Ph III trials involve a large numberof volunteers (e.g., 10s of 1000s) to test efficacy & safety of vaccine; 2. Phase II studies involve small number of volunteers (e.g., 100-1000) & are intended to provide preliminary
information about a vaccine’s ability to produce its desired effect; 3. Phase I clinical studies involve initial testing in very small number of volunteers (e.g., 20-100) to test the safety
profile; 4. Emergency Use Authorization; 5. Oxford University/AstraZeneca voluntarily paused Ph. III trials to review the safety event on a UK patient; trials have since resumed in
UK, India but remain suspended in some other countries, including US; 6. Beijing Institute of Biological Products; 7. Wuhan Institute of Biological Products; 8. Gamaleya ResearchInstitute; 9. Trials are expected to continue till 2021 & 2022 for different candidates, as per WHO, clinicaltrials.gov. However, companies are expected to start approval applications
with initial phase 3 results. Source: Guggenheim, Wells Fargo, Bloomberg, FT, Cowen, NYT, Milken Institute, Morgan Stanley, NIH, clinicaltrials.gov, WHO, Press Search, BCG

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Vaccine candidates acrossdevelopment phases

Therapeutics | Multiple therapeutic candidates at various stagesof clinical trials

3 therapeutic candidates currently approved1 in the US for potential COVID-19 treatment

359

Phase IV
Phase III28

Remdesivir

Dexamethasone

Plasma Therapy~30% drop in recovery time

Mortality risk reduction insevere patients2
Reduced 28-day mortality rateby 17%

8.7% mortality rate3 for patientstransfused within 3 days ofdiagnosis versus 11.9% in
patients transfused after 3 days

Widely available as antiinflammatory drug

EUA 4 granted6; rigorous
randomized trials underway(antivirals)
Interimreport view

64
Authorization
statusPhase II

US example

As of 25 Sep 2020

132

>50% patients discharged in 2
weeks

Broader EUA4,5 granted allowing
treatment of suspected orconfirmed COVID-19 patients(corticosteroid)(convalescent plasma)

Example candidates under Phase II / Phase III clinical trials
Phase I
Pre-Clinical(BioCentury)

LY-CoV555 (Eli Lilly)

Actemra (Roche)

Favipiravir

Trial phase

Phase III

Phase III

Phase IIInterimreport view

72% reduction in hospitalization
for patients who received
antibody vs. those who received
a placebo

Patients were 44% less likely toprogress to mechanicalventilation or death

Normalization of clinical signs7
is 40% faster; longer mediantime to first use of oxygen

30

105

Non-exhaustive(monoclonal antibodies)(monoclonal antibodies)(antivirals)

1. Remdesivir and plasma therapy granted Emergency Use Authorization; US Health and Human services included dexamethasone inCOVID-19 treatment guideline; 2. Patientsrequiring supplemental oxygen support; 3. 7-day mortality rate; 4. Emergency Use Authorization; 5. Initial EUA restricted use on patients with severe conditions (e.g., patientsrequiring supplemental oxygen support); 6. EUA granted despite no to limited randomized clinical trial involving a placebo group to estimate actual impact of the plasma
treatment; 7. Clinical signs include temperature, oxygen saturation, cough, which are compared with control arm; Source: ClinicalTrials.gov, Milken Institute, BioCentury, WHO,
NEJM, RAPS, CNN, The New York Times, medRxiv, Company Websites, BCG

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Globally 300+ treatments
undergoing trials

VACCINES &THERAPEUTICSOUTLOOKSeveral factors and their interplay will drive epidemic
progression scenarios in 2021

Healthcare technology

Vaccines1

Healthcaretechnology
Societal
response
Government policies
Business engagement& response

Non-exhaustive

Efficacy (reduction in severity and/or transmissibility)

Storage requirements2

Duration of immunity3

Safety data (frequency &severity of safety events)

Target population segments (suchas elderly, adults, children, etc.)

Co-administration
with other vaccines4

Safety data (frequency & severityof safety events)

Target population
segments

Therapeutics
Efficacy (reduction in transmission,
fatality rate, or length of stay)
Combination therapy approaches5

Diagnostics6
Accuracy (likelihood to deliver true
positive & true negative results)

Turnaround time
(time from test to results)

Societal response
Non-pharmaceutical intervention7(NPI) adoption rate and stringency

Consumer uptake of
vaccines, therapeutics,
and diagnostics

Adherence to government
messages and mandates

1. Additional variables include stage of vaccine (wave 1 vs. 2, i.e., time lag between subsequent vaccines); 2. E.g., mRNA vaccine technology candidates require
storage temperatures of -80C; 3. Natural immunity from prior infections also to be factored in; 4. Subsequent vaccines from wave 2; 5. Includes co-administration
with other modalities of therapies and vaccines; 6. Additional variables include qualitative (yes/no) vs. quantitative (neutralizing anti-body titer) diagnostics;
7. Includes social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc. Source: BCG

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Factors & their interplay

Healthcare technology and societal response considered
to build scenarios for 2021

SCENARIOS &IMPLICATIONSLeaders should use a scenario-based approach to derive implications
and develop action plans
Scenarios

Identify a set of factors
whose outcomes andinterplay will determine thefuture scenarios

Build scenarios thatemerge based on plausiblecombinations of factor
outcomes
Potential scenarios

Healthcaretechnology
Societal
response

Implications

Scenario-specific actions

Scenario 4
Government
policies

Scenario 3
Scenario 2…

Example | Vaccine efficacy range;
therapeutics response; NPI1 adoption
1. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc.
Source: BCG

Carve out a set of
implications andmove early on actions

Scenario 1

Example | Vaccine with strong efficacy &safety data vs. vaccine with limited success

Actively track leading indicators to
identify which scenario is panning out
Scenario 1

Scenario 2…

…

Scenario 4…

…

No regret moves

Act now to set up for success

Example | Tiered distribution prioritizing
frontline workers; R&D for alternate vaccines
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Factors

SCENARIOS &IMPLICATIONSSCENARIOS &IMPLICATIONSFast Recovery

Cautious Confidence

False Euphoria

Prolonged Drought

Successful vaccines emerge afterstrong data readouts in 2020.
Phased vaccine approvals arefollowed by a strong & organized
governmental response and a wellcoordinated supply chain ramp-up
leading to rapid adoption, thereby
setting up the path for a speedy
recovery. By Q3 2021, leading
economies with access to vaccine
have contained the pandemic.

Vaccines' demonstrated benefits inhealthy adults provide impetus forrestart; lower efficacy (e.g., for theelderly) to no data (e.g., forchildren) for other population
segments prevents widespreadrejoice; NPIs1 linger as society andbusinesses continue to safely andselectively reopen. By the end of2021, case volumes have declined
but only gradually.

Minor successes in vaccines andtherapeutics are lauded by society.
Lack of a coordinated communication strategy leaves population
confused & divided. The misplaced
euphoria of a certain section thatthey are fully immune leads to asudden drop in NPIs1, leading tolocal case flare-ups; several
geographic areas witness
resurgence in 2021.

Low efficacy (<50%) in early vaccine
candidates in the ongoing phase 3
clinical trials and only few
therapeutics impact the morale ofthe populace; grim outlook leads toadoption of altered lives with social
distancing embedded and localized
lockdowns becoming a norm.

1. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc.
Source: BCG

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Four potential scenarios emerge for leaders to think through and plan forScenario characteristics | Speedy recovery towards pre-crisis normal with some behavioral shifts
Healthcare tech.
and progress
Multiple vaccines
approved with efficacy>70% following strong data1
readouts
Multiple therapeutics
approved (high efficacy)Societal responseHigh vaccine adoption
across population segments
NPI2 adoption initiallyhigh, then starts to drop
High level of trust in govt.
actions & recommendations

Virus control
Infection rates decline
rapidly, “green zones3”
established
By Q3 2021, pandemic
declared over for leading
economies with cases
infrequent & rapidly contained

Implications | Manufacturing and supply chain ramp-up to be key

Economic &social revival
High consumer optimism
Economic & social revival
picks up, first in countries
with vaccine supply & thengradually in other countries

Non-exhaustive

Public leaders

Business leaders• Build and execute a tiered distribution strategy(access first for frontline groups and vulnerable population,then gradually to other sub-segments)• Create awareness of vaccine benefits; frequently
update employees on government policies including
vaccine distribution strategy and availability• Forge partnerships with private players to scale-up
manufacturing; and with local government and health careorganizations to ramp-up supply chain capabilities(incl. complexities arising from cold storage requirements4)• Partner with healthcare institutions to ensure vaccine
access to eligible employees• Set up a robust safety follow-up and monitoring program5• Leverage existing resources & expertise (where able) tohelp solve supply chain ramp-up challenges

1. Significant reduction in people who tested positive for COVID -19, reduction in hospitalizations, need for supplemental oxygen, and mortality across all participants and age groups;
2. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc.; 3. Regions where local vaccination rates are very high and daily detected case loads are very low;
4. Ultra frozen requirements for some mRNA candidates, administration challenges—once vaccine out of cold storage, must be administered within short timeframe (<48 hours);
5. Objective to rigorously follow up on all vaccinated individuals and track for possible safety events and side effects, efficacy and duration of protection; Source: BCG

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Fast
RecoveryScenario characteristics | State of vigilant rebound, revival slowly kicks in
Healthcare tech.
and progress
Mid-range efficacy vaccine(50-70%), demonstrated
benefits1 limited2 to healthy
adultsNew therapeutics
approved (high efficacy)Societal response

Virus control

Vaccine adoption picks up
in targeted segments

By the end of 2021, case
volumes would havedeclined but only gradually
as more and more people get
vaccinated

NPIs3 linger, become anorm for vulnerable
population segments

Implications | Balanced approach on vaccine and NPI3 adoption to be key

Economic &social revival
Economic revival picks up
gradually with availabilityof adult workforce
Schools & eldercare
facilities continue toremain affected

Non-exhaustive

Public leaders

Business leaders• Prioritize frontline workers & eligible sub-segments for
vaccination• Continue to focus on NPI3 measures to safeguard
vulnerable employees• Continue to push testing and NPI3 adoption with targeted
focus on vulnerable segments(e.g., in eldercare facilities, schools, etc.)• Adopt hybrid workplace strategies to drive operational
effectiveness (e.g., shifting health vulnerable employees
away from high contact roles, work from home options)• Continue to push alternate vaccine & therapy
developments for improved efficacy and safety profiles• Communicate widely across platforms to educate on
vaccine eligibility & limitations

1. Reduction in hospitalizations or mortality; 2. Reduction in benefit with age and no data for children, health vulnerable; 3. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks,
tracking, tracing, etc.; Source: BCG

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Cautious
Confidence

Scenario characteristics | False societal elation leads to disease spikes
Healthcare tech.
and progress
Mid-range efficacy(50-70%) vaccine/s approved;
limited data acrosspopulation segments
Currently approved
therapeutics widely available

Societal response
Vaccine adoption is high;limited eligibility know-how
NPI1 adoption drops
rapidly as people falsely
understand the vaccine to
be a knockout punch

Economic &social revival

Virus control
Local case flare-ups,
resurgence in multiple
geographies

Economy & businesses
open up with reduced
cautionMultiple ups and downs incase volumes throughout
2021

Economic revival &consumer confidence
slowly kick in but could
be short-lived2

Implications | Consistent communication and swift actions to control case flare-ups to be key

Non-exhaustive

Public leaders

Business leaders• Frequently communicate on vaccine safety, efficacy,eligibility, etc. to control false elation & bust myths• Communicate widely across platforms to bust myths,
educate on vaccine eligibility & limitations• Maintain & reinforce stringency on NPI1 implementation to
avoid local case flare-ups• Actively inform employees about case flare-ups & local
shutdowns• Manage complexities arising from multiple waves ofvaccines (e.g. tracking already vaccinated populations for
multiple dose requirements for some candidates; varying
storage, transportation, and delivery norms across tech, etc.)• Continue stringency on NPI1 measures; frequently use
rapid diagnostics (where able) for timely isolation of
infected employees

1. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc.; 2. Economic activity could stall due to local case flare-ups and resurgence;
Source: BCG

17

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

False
Euphoria

Scenario characteristics | Altered reality engulfed by economic uncertainties
Healthcare tech.
and progress
Early few vaccine candidates
display low efficacy (<50%)
Only few therapeutics
available with limited
impactSocietal response
NPIs1 become a part oflife, as people try to getback to regular activities

Virus control
Disease spread continues
across multiple regions
Localized lockdowns
become a norm

Implications | Continued R&D for alternate vaccine(s) & therapeutics to be key

Economic &social revival
Lower economic activity;
consumer confidence
declines further
Way of life altered withsocial distancing embedded

Non-exhaustive

Public leaders

Business leaders• Move to zero tolerance for non-adherence of NPI1 norms• Create focused employee trainings on NPI1 adoption;
ensure strict implementation across employee groups• Push for investments in alternate vaccine & therapy
candidates2 targeting improved efficacy & safety profiles• Institutionalize rapid testing of broader populations;devise strategies to isolate local case flare-ups• Ensure frequent communication on virus response efforts &continued R&D to uphold morale• Build diagnostic capabilities to frequently test & isolate
employees• Redeploy resources & funds (e.g., CSR3) to support virus
response efforts

1. Non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, masks, tracking, tracing, etc.; 2. Vaccines & therapeutics with higher efficacy and safety, testing with higher accuracy & better
turnaround time; 3. Corporate Social Responsibility; Source: BCG

18

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Prolonged
Drought

Leaders need to actively deploy a set of no-regret moves
irrespective of the scenario outcomesContinue to push widespread
testing coupled with effective
tracking and tracing

Promote tiered return of employees
at workplaces, build flexibility
around new working norms
Drive public-private partnerships
to scale-up manufacturing &distribution (incl. storage)

Sustain focus on implementation of
non-pharmaceutical interventions
such as masks & social distancing

Ensure frequent & consistentcommunication to generateawareness, maintain morale, andcurb misinformation
19

Copyright© 2020by BostonConsulting
Group.
All rights
reserved.
Updated29 September
2020
Version16.2
Copyright© 2020by BostonConsulting
Group.
All rights
reserved.
Updated24 April 2020
Version
3.1.

Support continued R&D foralternate vaccine &therapeutics candidates

SCENARIOS &IMPLICATIONSPotential scenarios for the new reality
Implications for public and business leaders

Updated analyses and impact
Economic and business impact
Trends in mobility and consumer activity

20

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics

Economic forecasts point toward a severe downturn in 2020;
most countries expected to rebound to 2019 GDP only by end of 2021

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 25 Sep 2020

GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)
Europe

China

Japan

112

111.4

108

109.3
108.0
104.2

104

103.3
102.8

100
96.6

92

96.1
93.2

92.0

2019

2020

101.2

97.7

93.9

2021 forecast
vs 2019

101.0
100.7

100

96

88

India12021

96-103%2019 GDP levels (Index)

95.9
94.2
93.9

95.2
95.0

90.9
89.8

2019

2020

2021

95-100%
Forecast IMF (Jun 24, 2020)

91.2

2019

2020

2021

104-111%
Forecast World Bank (Jun 8, 2020)

2019

2020

2021

98.0
96.5
96.2

96.8

99.8
97.1

95.5

92.5

91.4

2019

93-98%

2020

2021

97-101%

Forecast range from leading banks2

Note: As of reports dated 31 March 2020 to 25 Sep 2020, YoY forecasts; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan
Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG

21

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

US

Unemployment numbers declining or flattening out;in the US, temporary jobs starting to come backAs of 21 Sep 2020 | UK Example

As of 04 Sep 2020 | US Example

In the UK, number of jobs furloughedis flattening out

In the US, temporary job losses continue to decline;
however, permanent job losses increasing

Total claims value (B pounds)# of jobs furloughed (M)

50

10

40

35

39

30

30

8

Employers
leveraging
furloughprogram (M)

18M

15

10

20

0

20

6

23

10

Number of unemployed people (millions in every month)

6M

4
11

2

5

3M

Apr’20 May’20 Jun’20 Jul’20 Aug’20 Sep’20
Data as of third week for every month1

0.5

5

1.0

1.1

Total claims value

1.1

1.2

0

0
Dec'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20

Jul'20Aug'201.2# of jobs furloughed

1. Data represented as of third Sunday of the month: 23 Apr, 17 May, 21 June, 19 July, 16 Aug, 20 Sep.
Source: US Department of Labor – Employment Situation Report (04 Sep 2020); HMRC Coronavirus Statistics – UK Government

Temporary job losses

Permanent job losses
22

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

In the US, business activity1 across all sectors, except energy,
has currently rebounded to previous year levels
As of 20 Sep 2020
Data for US

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

Non-exhaustive

BCG Economic Recovery Pulse Check (ERPC): US example
120

Healthcare3
Automotive &Mobility (AM)Engineered Products& Infrastructure 4 (EPI)
Materials & Process
Industry5 (MPI)
Financial
Institutions (FI)Technology, Media& Telecom (TMT)

110

100

Normal state

90

80

Transportation & Logistics(TL)
Energy6

0
Jan

Feb

Lockdown started2

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Healthcare witnessedstronger rebound due toincreased demand during
current crisis
AM, EPI, FI, MPI, TMT & TL saw
steady, moderate recovery;
currently above previous year
levelsEnergy continues to remain
below pre-crisis levels

20-SepLockdown easing2

Note: Index value of 100 indicates normal activity compared to previous year's period; 1. Sector level activity based on 100+ data sources, e.g. financial index, macro economic data, employment, sector confidence, specific data source bysector etc.; 2. Refers to US lockdown start and easing dates 3. Medical Tech, Biopharma, Consumer Health (excluding Hospitals); 4. Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure, Machinery & Industrial Automation; 5. Chemicals, Metals andMining, Building Materials, Forest Products, Paper and Packaging; 6. Oil & Gas, Energy & Utilities. Source: BCG

23

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Aggregate activity1 across time (YoY)

In Europe, business activity1 across many sectors has exceeded
or is close to previous year levels
As of 20 Sep 2020
Aggregated for Europe (GER, FR, UK, ITA, SPA)ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

Non-exhaustive

BCG Economic Recovery Pulse Check (ERPC): Europe example
Automotive &Mobility (AM)Materials & Process
Industry3 (MPI)

120

Healthcare4

Normal state

100

Technology, Media& Telecom (TMT)
Financial
Institutions (FI)80

Engineered Products& Infrastructure 5 (EPI)
Energy6

AM, MPI, and Healthcare
currently above previous year
levels; AM has seen strong
recovery since the low activity
during broader lockdown phase
TMT, FI, EPI, TL, & Energy
remain below pre-crisis levels;
TMT sees continued rebound,close to previous year levels

Transportation &Logistics (TL)

0
Jan

Feb

Lockdown started2

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

20-SepLockdown easing2

Note: Index value of 100 indicates normal activity compared to previous year's period; 1. Sector level activity based on 100+ data sources, e.g. financial index, macro economic data, employment, sector confidence, specific data source bysector etc.; 2. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates across countries; 3. Chemicals, Metals and Mining, Building Materials, Forest Products, Paper and Packaging; 4. Medical Tech, Biopharma, Consumer Health (excluding
Hospitals); 5. Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure, Machinery & Industrial Automation; 6. Oil & Gas, Energy & Utilities; Source: BCG

24

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Aggregate activity1 across time (YoY)Manufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates positive momentum

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 25 Sep 2020

Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis
China1

Neutrallevel = 50

2

1

1

3

0

-2

Neutrallevel = 50

1
-5

-10

-2

-5

2

Neutrallevel = 50

Italy
2
-1

-1

-10

-5

3

Lockdown started-14% to 0%

Lockdown easing

> 0%

1

1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug

Neutrallevel = 50

-3

Sweden-29% to -15%

1

-14

-19
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug≤ -30%

1

South Korea

Neutrallevel = 50

Neutrallevel = 50

1

-5

-16 -13
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug-14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug

2

0

0

-1

-6

-8

-9

-7

-3

-2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug

Japan
2

3

1
-7

3

-2

-10
-13
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug

Neutrallevel = 50

-1

-2

-5

-8

-12

-10

-5

-3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug

Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive
sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment. 1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Source: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMISA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; Bloomberg

25

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21
29 July
September2020 Version
2020 Version
13.2. 16.2

Germany

USRetail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; lower recovery of
workplace mobility indicates continued adoption of work from home

TRENDS IN MOBILITY &CONSUMER ACTIVITY

As of 11 Sep 2020

Non-exhaustive

Germany

Sweden

Italy

0

0

0

-50

-50

-50

-100

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

US

-100

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

South Korea

-100

0

0

-50

-50

-50

Feb

Mar

Apr

Lockdown started4

May

Jun

Jul

Lockdown easing4

Aug

Sep

-100

Feb

Workplace mobility

Mar

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Japan

0

-100

Feb

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Public transit mobility

Aug

Sep

-100

Feb

Retail & recreation

Mobility rebounded to baseline levels

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks, museums,
libraries and cinemas; 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks during Feb 15–Sep 11, 2020); Source: Google LLC"Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 21 Sep 2020; Press search; BCG

26

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Workplace1, public transit2 and retail & recreation3 mobility compared to baseline of January to mid-February 2020

Passenger vehicle sales see limited rebound, except in China;
several countries witness a drop in August

TRENDS IN MOBILITY &CONSUMER ACTIVITY

As of 25 Sep 2020

Monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, YOY % change vs 2019

0%
-11%
-44%

Jan

Feb

Mar

-40% -38%-56%
Apr MayJun-19% -27%

July

Aug

-7%

-5%

-11%
-38%

Jan

Feb

Mar

-61%

Apr

-49%

May

-32%

-20%

July

Aug

Jan

Feb

-8%
-85% -98%≤ -30%-29% to -15%

Lockdown started-14% to 0%

Lockdown easing

> 0%

Feb

Mar

Apr

Mar

Apr

Jun

July

Aug

-48%

May

12%

13%

9%
-4%

-14% -20%

Jun

July

Aug

Jan

Feb

Mar

-12% -10%

-9%

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Japan
-6%

-4%

-9%
-37%

Jan

May

-48%

11%

-24% -11%

Sweden

-18%

6%

46%

2%

Jan

9%

South Korea3

Italy

-6%

2%

-2%

-20%
-82%

Jun

7%

Feb

Mar

Apr

-22%

-13%

-30%

-50%

May

Jun

July

Aug

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

-23%

-13% -15%

-47%

May

Jun

July

Aug

1. Passenger vehicle sales includes data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, and vans; 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high tier cities andextended NEV subsidies; 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models andthe increased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into'camping cars'. Source: Marklines, BCG

27

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

China2Germany

US1

Retail goods sales (excl. auto and fuel) have rebounded topre-COVID-19 levels across most of the countries

TRENDS IN MOBILITY &CONSUMER ACTIVITY

As of 25 Sep 2020

Growth of total retail goods sales (excl. auto & fuel)1, YOY % change vs 2019Jan
China2

Feb
-16%

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

-12%

-6%

-1%

2%

-2%

-1%

Japan

0%

2%

1%

-6%

-1%

10%

7%

US

3%

4%

7%

-6%

3%

8%

8%

8%

UK

1%

0%

-4%

-19%

-11%

1%

3%

4%

Italy

1%

2%

-18%

-27%

-11%

-2%

-11%

Sweden

3%

5%

2%

-3%

2%

3%

3%

≤ -30%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%> 0%

1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; 2. For China, combined value of Jan & Feb is available; Source: US Census
Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

Retail goods sales have currently
rebounded to pre-COVID-19
levels in US, China, Japan, & UK
In Italy, retail goods sales
declined in July after showing
signs of rebound in June
Sweden hasn't shown asignificant impact of COVID-19
on retail goods sales

Further reading
Reigniting Retail Demand28

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care,home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services

De-averaged view | Retail store sales in China have rebounded across
categories; apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries

TRENDS IN MOBILITY &CONSUMER ACTIVITY

As of 25 Sep 2020

Retail store sales' breakdown by category, YoY % change vs 2019
Mar Apr May June

Personal care & cosmetics storesJul

Mar Apr May June

Aug

China1

Apparel stores2

Home appliance stores3
Aug

China1 -35% -19% -1% 0% -3% 4%Japan -23% -54% -34% -6% -19%
-49% -86% -62% -24% -23% -19%
US-36% -68% -60% -33% -25% -16%
UK
-64% -88% -43% -18% -40%
Italy
Sweden -33% -38% -30% -23% -22%
≤ -30%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

Aug-12% 4% 13% 21% 9% 19%
2% 3% -3% 3% 1%
Japan
6% -10% -8% -1% 4% 4%
US-1% -37% -30% -6% -3% 0%
UK-14% -13% -14% -9% -6%
Italy
Sweden 20% -3% -5% 3% 1%

19% 18% 11% 11% 7% 4%
Japan-1% 0% 2% 3% 1%
US
29% 12% 15% 12% 11% 11%
UK
10% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3%
Italy
4% 0% 1% -1% -2%
Sweden 7% -2% 0% 1% 1%

China1Mar Apr May June Jul

Jul

Mar Apr May June

Jul

Aug

China1 -30% -9% 4% 10% -2% 4%-10% -9% 9% 26% 12%
Japan-18% -53% -42% -20% -5% -4%
US-11% -50% -31% 0% 9% 10%
UK-43% -55% -15% 1% -2%
Italy
Sweden 2% 8% 15% 15% 17%

China's sales have almost
rebounded to year-ago run rates
Retail store sales recovery driven by
F&B across all countries
Personal care & cosmetics category
sales have rebounded to last year
levels except in Italy
Apparel category saw the largest
decline; far from recovery acrosscountries except China
Home appliances sales showing
signs of rebound; continue to behigher than last year in Sweden> 0%

Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equip ~13%. Sector classification & mix
may be different across countries; 1. For China, Feb data includes both Jan & Feb, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.; 3. Includes audio video & home appliances stores;
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

29

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Food & beverage stores4 sectors currently above pre-crisis TSR levels;
7 sectors with significant share1 of companies with >15% default risk
As of 25 Sep 2020

Based on top S&P
Global 1200 companies

Categories based on TSR and net debt/enterprise value2

Healthier sectors

Pressured sectors

Vulnerable sectors

21 Feb 2020
- 20 Mar 2020

21 Feb 2020- 25 Sep 2020

Companies with probability of default >15%4
11 Sep 2020- 25 Sep 2020

21 Feb 2020

25 Sep 2020

Sem iconductors-30%

Retailing
Household Products

-40%
-16%

9%
5%
2%

0%
0%
0%

0%
35%
0%

Pharm aMaterials
Software
Media

-20%
-32%
-30%
-36%

1%
-1%
-2%
-3%

0%
5%
9%
0%

5%
11%
0%
0%

Prof. Services
Food/staples Retail
Capital Goods
Tech Hardware
Health Equipm ent
Durable Goods

-30%
-10%
-35%
-26%
-31%
-39%

-3%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-7%
-10%

0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%

0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
0%

Food & Beverage
Utilities

-23%
-30%

-12%
-15%

0%
0%

0%
0%

Auto
Transport
Financials
Telecom
Hospitality
Insurance

-41%
-34%
-35%
-17%
-44%
-39%

-15%
-15%
-16%
-17%
-23%
-25%

0%
0%
0%
0%
8%
0%

14%
28%
0%
8%
31%
0%

Real Estate
Banks
Energy

-39%
-39%
-52%

-29%
-31%
-43%

0%
0%
0%

17%
4%
18%

Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS definitions; 1. Retailing, Materials, Auto, Transport, Hospitality, Real estate and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies
with probability of default > 15%; 2. Net debt & enterprise value from latest available balance sheet; Categories defined based on comparison with S&P Global 1200 median: healthy = TSR & debt/EV >median, pressured = TSR or debt/EV < median, vulnerable = TSR & debt/EV < median; 3. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration ofoutbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 25 Sep 2020 based on median; 4. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

11 Sep 2020- 25 Sep 2020

Pos. trend ≥ 2%
No sig. change
Neg. trend ≥ 2%30

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

TSR performance3

Edition #15

Edition #14

Edition #13

Edition #12

Edition #11

Vaccine & Therapeutics
Outlook - Part I: Timelines
and Success Factors

US: Current Dynamics
and How to Win the Fight

Global Restart:
Key Dynamics

Ensuring an Inclusive
RecoveryAccelerating Climate
Actions in the New Reality

Edition #10

Edition #9

Edition #8

Edition #7

Edition #6

Value Protection and
Acceleration Roadmap to
Win in the New Reality

Future of Global Tradeand Supply Chains

Galvanizing Nations for
the New Reality

Sensing Consumer Behavior
and Seizing Demand Shifts

Restructuring Costs, andManaging Cash and Liquidity

Edition #5

Edition #4

Edition #3

Edition #2

Edition #1

Revamping Organizations
for the New Reality

Accelerating Digital &Technology Transformation

Emerging Stronger
from the Crisis

Preparing for the Restart

Facts, Scenarios, andActions for Business
Leaders

Source: BCG

31

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Additional perspectives on COVID-19

Clinical Trial

Convalescent
PlasmaCorticosteroid

Efficacy

A systematic study of new tests and treatments toevaluate their effects on human health outcomes
Convalescent plasma therapy uses blood from people
who've recovered from an illness to help other
patients recover
Corticosteroids are a class of drug that lowers
inflammation in the body. They also reduce immune
system activity.
The potential of a drug or vaccine to protect from adisease in controlled clinical trials; expressed as %Emergency Use
Authorization

Authority granted to facilitate availability of an
unapproved product, or an unapproved use of an
approved product, during a state of emergency

Monoclonal
Antibodies

Laboratory-produced molecules engineered to serve
as substitute antibodies that can restore, enhance, or
mimic the immune system's attack

1. Experimental drug, vaccine, etc.; Source: CDC, WHO, NCBI, Mayo Clinic, Healthline

NonPharmaceutical
Interventions

Actions, apart from getting vaccinated and taking
medicine, that people can take to help slow the
spread of disease (e.g., social distancing, masks, etc.)

Phase IFirst human trials of a medical intervention1 in asmall group of people to evaluate a safe dosage range
and identify side effects

Phase II

Assessment of short-term safety of medical
intervention1 in patients; given to hundreds of people

Phase III

Trials in large (thousands) and possibly varied patientgroups to determine short & long-term safety andefficacy

Phase IV

Studies performed after medical intervention1 has
been approved & marketed for sale; aim is to identify
adverse effects not apparent in prior trials

PlaceboControlled Trial

Clinical trials involving two groups – one group getsthe active treatment, the other gets the placebo (aninactive drug with no effect)

Pre-ClinicalStudy

Testing of drug or vaccine in test tubes and animals
to see if it triggers an immune response
32

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 29 September 2020 Version 16.2

Glossary of terms

Disclaimer

The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of
the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any
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for the foregoing.
BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations of market transactions, and these materials should not be relied on orconstrued as such. Further, the financial evaluations, projected market and financial information, and conclusions containedin these materials are based upon standard valuation methodologies, are not definitive forecasts, and are not guaranteed by
BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client. BCG has notindependently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or operating
assumptions will clearly impact the analyses and conclusions.
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great careprior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. This presentation is not intended
to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or
recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate
course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area,
particularly the most recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision.

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