⺰ ᢥ

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔട ⮮  ਭ ๺*㧔᣿ᴦᄢቇ᡽ᴦ⚻ᷣቇㇱᢎ᝼㧕䈲䈛䉄䈮 1990 ᐕઍೋ㗡ߪࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߦࠃࠆᅢ⺞ߥ⒢෼Ⴧߦࠃࠅਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ߇ᡷༀߩళߒ
ࠍ⷗ߖߚᤨᦼߢ޽ߞߚ‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘ࡃࡉ࡞ߩ፣უߣߘࠇߦ⛯ߊ㐳ᦼߦࠊߚࠆ⚻ᷣૐㅅ߇ౣ߮⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ᜛ᄢࠍᷓೞൻߐߖߚ‫ޕ‬᥊᳇ኻ╷ߣߒߡⷐ⺧ߐࠇߚᐲ㊀ߥࠆ⽷᡽಴േߣᄢ᏷ߥᷫ⒢᡽╷߇⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍᖡൻߐߖߚ
৻࿃ߢ޽ࠆߎߣߪ⇼޿ߥ޿‫ޕ‬
᡽ᐭߪ 2011 ᐕᐲߦࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ㤥ሼൻࠍ᡽╷⋡ᮡߣߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ߘߩߚ߼ߦߪ㜞޿⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ߣᄢ᏷ߥᱦ಴೥ᷫߦߣߤ߹ࠄߕ㧘Ⴧ⒢߽ⷞ㊁ߦ౉ࠇߚ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ᔅⷐߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬
 1990 ᐕઍએ㒠ߩ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ⚥Ⓧߣߎࠇߦ઻߁᡽ᐭ౏ௌߩ᜛ᄢߪ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ߥ▸࿐ࠍㅺ⣕ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ߞߚߩ߆㧘ߘࠇߣ߽዁᧪ߦ߅ߌࠆ⽶ௌߩ㄰ᷣน⢻ᕈࠍ៊ߥࠊߥ޿▸࿐ߢ޽ߞߚߩ߆㧘ߎߩߎߣࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬േቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒ㧔㐳ᦼ㊄೑߇ฬ⋡ᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ⁁ᘒ㧕ߦ޽ߞߡߪ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ࿁ᓳࠍߔߔ߼㧘ߎࠇ߇⿒ሼߦ㒱ࠄߥ޿ࠃ߁ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍ⛯ߌࠇ߫㧘౏ௌߩ᜛ᄢߪ໧㗴ߣߥࠄߥ޿㧔޿ࠊࠁࠆ࠼࡯ࡑ࡯᧦ઙ㧕‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬േቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣߢߪ㧘⃻࿷ߩ⽶ௌࠍ዁᧪ߩ
⽷᡽㤥ሼߦࠃߞߡ㄰ᷣࠍㅴ߼ߥ޿㒢ࠅ㧘⽷᡽ߪ⎕✋ߔࠆน⢻ᕈࠍ᦭ߔࠆ‫⽷ߩߎޕ‬᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍᎼߞߡߪ㧘ㆊ෰ߦ߅޿ߡ⤘ᄢߥℂ⺰⊛࡮ታ⸽⊛ߥ⎇ⓥ߇⫾Ⓧߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
ᧄⓂߢߪ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆᣂߚߥ⹏ଔߩ⹜ߺߣߒߡ㧘ᣢሽ⎇ⓥߢߪᔅߕߒ߽᣿␜⊛ߦᛒࠊࠇߡ޿ߥ޿㧘
ᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߒߚലᨐߩᬌ⸽ࠍ⹜ߺࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫߼ߚߩߘޕ‬㧘Polito and Wickens(2007)ߢឭ
᩺ߐࠇߚᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍዉ౉ߒ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁‫ᧄޕ‬Ⓜߩ᭴ᚑߪએਅߩߣ߅ࠅߢ
޽ࠆ‫ᦨޕ‬ೋߦㄭᐕߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰߩേะࠍᢛℂߒ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߣ޿ߊߟ߆ߩ⇣ߥࠆᚻᴺߢ⸘▚ߐࠇࠆ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰߩផ⒖ࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ട߃ߡ㧘90 ᐕઍߩᷫ⒢᡽╷߇⽷᡽෼ᡰߦ෸߷ߒߚലᨐߩផ⸘
ࠍⴕ߁‫ߩߎޕ‬ᓟ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆℂ⺰⊛ߥ⢛᥊ࠍ⺑᣿ߒߚᓟ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍዉ಴ߒ㧘ߎߩᜰᮡߦၮߠ޿ߚ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬*1981 ᐕᘮᙥ⟵Ⴖᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱතᬺ㧘88 ᐕ╳ᵄᄢቇᄢቇ㒮⚻༡࡮᡽╷⑼ቇ⎇ⓥ⑼ୃੌ㧘2000 ᐕඳ჻㧔⚻ᷣቇ㧕‫ޕ‬㧔⽷㧕㔚ജਛᄩ⎇ⓥᚲਥછ⎇ⓥຬ㧘࿖┙␠ળ଻㓚࡮ੱญ໧㗴⎇ⓥᚲቶ㐳╬ࠍ⚻ߡ㧘⃻⡯‫ޕ‬ኾ㐷㧦ࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ࡮⽷᡽ቇ㧘⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇ㧘␠ળ଻㓚⺰㧘ੱญ⚻ᷣቇ‫ޕ‬ᚲዻቇળ㧦ᣣᧄੱญቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⚻ᷣቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⽷᡽ቇળ‫ޕ‬- 29 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

࿑⴫㧝࿑⴫1䇭৻⥸ળ⸘䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䇮䋦䋩࿑⴫䋱㩷৻⥸ળ⸘ߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰ㧔න૏㧦ళ౞‫ޔ‬㧑㧕৻⥸ળ⸘䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䇮䋦䋩㩷
100.0

ᱦ಴⸘

90.0

⒅⒢ශ⚕෼౉

80.0

GDPᲧ

8.0%
7.0%
6.0%

70.0

5.0%

60.0

4.0%

50.0
40.0

3.0%

30.0

2.0%

20.0

1.0%

10.0
0.0

0.0%
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005಴ᚲ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷᡽⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹

1.㩷 ⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱േะ䈫᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ
1.1㩷 ਛᄩ᡽ᐭ䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈫ௌോ䈱േะ
1.1.1㩷 ৻⥸ળ⸘䈱෼ᡰ䈫⽷᡽⿒ሼߪߓ߼ߦ৻⥸ળ⸘ߩ෼ᡰߣ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩផ⒖ࠍᢛℂߔࠆ‫ޕ‬࿑⴫ 1 ߪ 1969 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩᱦ಴㗵ߣ⒅⒢࡮ශ⚕෼౉㗵ߩផ⒖ࠍ᫔ࠣ࡜ࡈߦ㧘߹ߚ౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყࠍ᛬ࠇ✢ࠣ࡜ࡈߢ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔޿ߕࠇ߽᳿
▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕‫ޕ‬ฬ⋡୯ߢߺߚᱦ಴㗵ߪ 1980 ᐕᐲߩ 43.4 ళ౞߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕᐲߢߪ 85.5 ళ౞ߣ߶߷ 2 ୚ߩⷙᮨߦ
Ⴧടߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘1980㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ 25 ᐕ㑆ߩᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ 2.8㧑ߩિ߮ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ ߩߎޕ‬25ᐕߩᦼ㑆ࠍ1980㨪92ᐕߣ1992㨪2005 ᐕߩੑᦼ㑆ߦಽഀߒߡᱦ಴㗵ߩᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘
೨ඨ߇4.1㧑㧘ᓟඨ߇ 1.5㧑ߣߥࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ࠍߺࠆߣ 1980 ᐕߩ 26.9 ళ౞߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߢߪ 49.1 ళ౞ߣផ⒖ߒ㧘ห᭽ߦᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ 2.4㧑ߦߥࠆ‫ࠄ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕ‬೨ඨᦼ㑆ߩჇട₸߇ 6.1㧑ߣᱦ಴㗵ߩჇട₸ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘ᓟඨᦼ㑆ߢߪ㧙0.8㧑ߣ߻ߒࠈᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬⢛᥊ߦߪ㧘᥊᳇ૐㅅߦ઻߁⒢෼ߩᷫዋ߿ 90 ᐕઍߦታᣉߐࠇߚᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ߥߤ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ߎࠇߦߟ޿ߡߪᓟߢㅀߴࠆߎߣߣߒߚ޿‫ޕ‬
 90 ᐕઍߦߪᱦ಴㗵ߩჇടߦኻߒߡ⒅⒢෼౉߇િ߮ߡ޿ߥ޿ߚ߼㧘ߘߩᏅ㗵ࠍၒ߼ࠆߚ߼౏ௌ㊄෼౉߇Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬࿑⴫ 1 ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1979 ᐕߦ 6.0㧑߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߚ߽ߩߩ㧘80 ᐕઍߩ
⽷᡽ౣᑪߦ઻߁ᱦ಴ᛥ೙߿ࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߦ߅ߌࠆ⒢෼Ⴧߥߤࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ 1991 ᐕᐲߦߪ 1.4㧑߹ߢૐਅߒߚ‫ޕ‬ߒ߆ߒ㧘ߎߩᲧ₸ߪߘߩᓟᕆㅦߦ਄᣹ߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߦ 7.5㧑ߦ㆐ߒ㧘2003 ᐕᐲߦߪ 7.2㧑ߩ᳓Ḱߣߥߞߚ‫ޕ‬
ዊᴰ᡽ᮭߩ⊓႐ߦࠃࠆ࿖ௌ⊒ⴕߩᱤᱛ߼ࠍ〯߹߃ߡ߽2000 ᐕઍએ㒠7㧑೨ᓟߩ᳓Ḱࠍ⸥㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ ߦߺߥߜޕ‬2005 ᐕᐲ㧔᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ߢߪ㧘ᱦ಴㗵߇ 85.5 ళ౞㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬߇ 49.1 ళ౞㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉߇
31.3 ళ౞ߢ޽ࠅ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 6.2㧑ߦ߿߿ૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬- 30 -

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ

࿑⴫2䇭䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䈱ផ⒖䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䋩࿑⴫㧞ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩផ⒖㧔න૏㧦ళ౞㧕
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹

1.1.2㩷 䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䈱ផ⒖ ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍⷰኤߔࠆ႐ว㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩേะ߇㊀ⷐߦߥࠆ‫᧦࡯ࡑ࡯࠼ޕ‬ઙ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆⅣႺ
ߢߪ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ߇㤥ሼߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍ㜞߼ߦ⛽ᜬߔࠆߎߣߢ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇⛽ᜬߐࠇࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ౏ௌ㊄෼౉߆ࠄ࿖ௌ⾌ࠍ㒰޿ߚ߽ߩߣቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆ‫߹޿ޕ‬㧘ᱦ಴ߪ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ࿖ௌ⾌㧘ᱦ౉ߪ⒅⒢෼౉ߣ౏ௌ㊄෼౉߆ࠄߥࠆߣߔࠆ‫߈ߣߩߎޕ‬㧘৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ߩᏅ߇ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝
࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ‫ߩߎ߅ߥޕ‬୯ߪ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߣ࿖ௌ⾌ߩᏅ㗵ߣ߽╬ߒ޿‫ޕ‬
 1975 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩផ⒖ࠍߺࠆߣ 1986 ᐕᐲ߹ߢ⿒ሼ߇⛯޿ߡ߅ࠅ㧘1979 ᐕᐲߦߪ 7.9 ళ౞ߩ⿒ሼߣࡇ࡯ࠢࠍ⸥㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬ᓟ㧘1987 ᐕᐲ߆ࠄ 1992 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߪ㤥ሼߣߥࠅ㧘1991 ᐕᐲߩ㤥ሼߪ 8.8 ళ౞ߦ㆐ߒߚ‫ ߒ߆ߒޕ‬1993 ᐕᐲએ㒠㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪౣ߮⿒ሼߦォ⪭ߒ㧘1999
ᐕᐲߦ 17.2 ళ౞㧘2003 ᐕᐲߢߪ 19.8 ళ౞߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ኻ GDP Ყߢߺߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ
⿒ሼ᏷ߪ㧘1999 ᐕᐲ߇ 3.5㧑㧘߹ߚ 2003 ᐕᐲߪ 4.0㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬
1.1.3㩷 ᡽ᐭௌോ䈱ផ⒖
 2006 ᐕᐲᧃߩਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩ㐳ᦼௌോ㧔࿖ௌߣ⍴ᦼ⸽೛ࠍ㒰ߊ୫౉㊄ߩว⸘㧕ߪ 733.4 ళ౞㧘࿖ௌᱷ㜞ߪ 674.1
ళ౞㧔ߎߩ߁ߜ᥉ㅢ࿖ௌߩᱷ㜞ߪ 531.7 ళ౞㧕ߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩௌോߩ߁ߜ㧘৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔߴ߈㐳ᦼௌോߪ 531.5 ళ౞㧘ߘߩ߁ߜ࿖ௌᱷ㜞ߪ 529.2 ళ౞ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ߩࠬࡦ࡜ࡃ࡮࡯࡝ࡑࠗ࡜ࡊޕ‬ᖡൻߦ઻޿৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔߴ߈㐳ᦼௌോᱷ㜞߽Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1992 ᐕᐲᧃߢߪ 190.9 ళ౞㧘ኻฬ⋡ GDP Ყߢߺߡ߽ 39.5㧑ߦߔ߉ߥ߆ߞߚ‫ߩߎߒ߆ߒޕ‬ᓟ㧘ௌോᱷ㜞෸߮ߘߩኻ GDP Ყߣ߽ߦᕆჇߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲᧃ 349.5
ళ౞㧘70.0㧑ߦ㆐ߒ㧘ߐࠄߦ 2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߽ߘߩ௑ะߪᱛ߹ࠄߕ㧘2006 ᐕᐲᧃߩ㐳ᦼௌോ 531.5 ళ౞ߪኻ GDP Ყߢ 105.6㧑ߣߥࠅ㧘ฬ⋡ GDP ߩ᳓Ḱࠍ⿥߃ߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ৻⥸ળ⸘߇࿖ௌ⾌ߣߒߡ⽶ᜂߔࠆ೑ሶᡰᛄ޿ߩ㗵ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩჇടߪ޽ࠆ߽ߩߩૐ޿㐳ᦼ೑ሶ₸ߩߚ߼೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪᛥ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1992 ᐕᐲߩ೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪ 10.6 ళ౞ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘1999 ᐕᐲ߽߶߷
- 31 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

หߓ᳓Ḱߢ޽ࠆ 10.5 ళ౞ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬ᓟ㧘೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪߐࠄߦᷫዋߒ㧘2005 ᐕᐲߢߪ 7.0 ళ౞ߦߣߤ߹ߞ
ߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬

1.2㩷 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ
1.2.1㩷 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱ផ⸘ ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽߣ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേߦಽ⸃ߒ㧘㐳ᦼ⊛ߥᚑಽࠍ߽ߣߦ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⹜
▚ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ࡎ࠼࡝࠶ࠢ࡮ࡊ࡟ࠬࠦ࠶࠻࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯㧘߅ࠃ߮ࡌࡃ࡝࠶ࠫ࡮ࡀ࡞࠰ࡦಽ⸃ߩਃߟߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ࠆ 1)‫ߡߞࠃߦࠇߎޕ‬ផ⸘ߐࠇߚᱦ౉࡮ᱦ಴㗵ߪ㧘᥊᳇ᄌേߦ઻޿⍴ᦼ⊛ߦᄌേߔࠆᓴⅣ⊛ߥᱦ౉࡮ᱦ಴㗵ߣ㐳ᦼ⊛ߥᚑಽߣߦ඙ಽߐࠇࠆ‫ߩ߼ߚߩߘޕ‬ਃߟߩ
ᣇᴺߩ᭎ⷐߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ 2)‫ޕ‬㽲䊖䊄䊥䉾䉪䊶䊒䊧䉴䉮䉾䊃䊶䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷䋨㪟㪧 䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷䋬㪟㫆㪻㫉㫀㪺㫂㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪧㫉㪼㫊㪺㫆㫋㫋㩿㪈㪐㪐㪎㪀䋩㩷HP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߪᤨ♽೉࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ৻ቯߩṖࠄ߆ߐࠍᜬߟࠃ߁ߥ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ g t 㧘⍴ᦼᄌേㇱಽࠍ ct ߣߔࠆߣ߈㧘(1)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ⍴ᦼᄌേㇱಽߩੑਸ਼ߩ✚๺ߣ㐳ᦼᚑಽߩ 2 㓏ߩ㓏Ꮕߩੑਸ਼ߩ✚๺߇ᦨዊߦߥࠆࠃ߁ߦ g t ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬TªT
2ºMin «¦ ct2 + λ ¦ {(g t − g t −1 ) − ( g t −1 − g t − 2 )} »t =1
¬ t =1¼(1)

਄ᑼߢ㧘T ߪ᷹ⷰ୯ᢙ㧘ǳߪ⺞ᢛࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ᐕᐲ࠺࡯࠲ߩ႐วߦߪ λ = 100 ߇ផᅑߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬㽳䉦䊦䊙䊮䊶䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷㩷 ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߪ⁁ᘒⓨ㑆ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផቯߔࠆ႐วߦ૶↪ߐࠇࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ᤨޕ‬ὐ t ߦ߅ߌࠆ᷹ⷰ
୯ࠍ xt 㧘㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ xt 㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേㇱಽࠍ u t ߣߔࠆߣ㧘(2-1)㧘(2-2)ᑼߢ⁁ᘒⓨ㑆ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⴫ߔߎߣ߇ߢ
߈ࠆ‫ߡ޿↪ࠍࠇߎޕ‬᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬
᷹ⷰᣇ⒟ᑼ xt = xt + u t(2-1)

ㆫ⒖ᣇ⒟ᑼ xt = c1 xt −1 + c 2 xt − 2 + ε t(2-2)

㽴䊎䊋䊥䉾䉳䊶䊈䊦䉸䊮ಽ⸃䋨㪙㪥 ಽ⸃䋬㪙㪼㫍㪼㫉㫀㪻㪾㪼㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪥㪼㫃㫊㫆㫅㩿㪈㪐㪏㪈㪀䋩㩷ߎߎߢ↪޿ߚࡆࡃ࡝࠶ࠫ࡮ࡀ࡞࠰ࡦಽ⸃ߪ㧘Beveridge and Nelson(1981)ߦࠃߞߡ␜ߐࠇߚᣇᴺࠍ
Newbold(1990)߇ല₸⊛ߦୃᱜߒߚಽ⸃ᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬BN ಽ⸃ߪᄌᢙߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ⏕₸⊛࠻࡟ࡦ࠼ᚑಽߣߘࠇ
એᄖߩ৻ᤨ⊛ߥ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേㇱಽߦಽ⸃ߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬1) ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ႐ว㧘Giorno et. al.(1995)߿⚻ᷣડ↹ᐡ(1998)ߥߤߢឭ᩺ߐࠇ㧘ᦨㄭߩ⚻ᷣ⽷᡽⊕ᦠ㧔ౝ㑑ᐭ㧕ߥߤߢ߽೑↪ߐࠇߡ
޿ࠆᣇᴺ߽޽ࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘ᱦ౉ߦߟ޿ߡᚲᓧ⒢㧘ᴺੱ⒢㧘㑆ធ⒢㧘␠ળ଻㓚⽶ᜂߥߤߦಽഀߒ㧘⒢෼ߩ GDP ᒢജᕈࠍ᳞߼㧘ߎࠇߦẜ࿷⊛ GDPࠍਸ਼ߓߡ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥᱦ౉㗵ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߥߤߩᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ૉߒ㧘ᚲᓧ⒢ߥߤߦߟ޿ߡߪᚲᓧಽᏓߥߤߦ㑐ߒߡᒝ޿઒ቯࠍ⟎ߊߥߤߩ⍴ᚲ߽⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ᦨޕ‬ㄭߢߪർᶆ࡮㐳᎑(2006)ߥߤ߇⹦⚦ߥಽᨆࠍ⹜ߺߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬2) ᤨ♽೉ᄌᢙࠍ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽߣ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേㇱಽߦಽ⸃ߔࠆᚻᴺߦߟ޿ߡߪ⢈ᓟ࡮ਛ↰(1998)ߥߤࠍෳᾖ‫ޕ‬- 32 -

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ

࿑⴫3䇭᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨ኻGDPᲧ䇮䋦䋩࿑⴫㧟 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ㧔ኻ㪞㪛㪧Ყ‫ޔ‬㧑㧕
3.0%䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴
Kalman

2.0%

HP
BN

1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈲⪺⠪䈱⸘▚䈮䉋䉎䇯

ΔBt ߇ቯᏱߥㆊ⒟ߦߒߚ߇޿ MA(п)ߢ⴫ߐࠇࠆߣߔࠆ‫߈ߣߩߎޕ‬㧘 ΔBt ߩ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ ΔBt 㧘⍴ᦼᄌേ‫ޕ‬Newbold(1990)ߪ㧘 ct ߇(3)ᑼߢ⸘▚ߢ߈ࠆㇱಽࠍ ct 㧘MA(п)ߩቯᢙ㗄ࠍ μ ߣߔࠆ㧔 c t = ΔBt − ΔBt 㧕ߎߣࠍ␜ߒߚ 3)‫ޕ‬ppct = (1 − φ1 −  − φ p ) −1 ¦¦ φi (ΔBt − j +1 − ΔBt − j − μ )j =1 i = j= [φ (1)]

−1

p
ª
º
«φ ( L)ΔBt − ¦ jφ j μ »
j =1
¬
¼



(3)

ߥ߅㧘৻⥸ᱦ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪ p=1 ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬
1.2.2 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱േะ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ߩ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߎߣ߇
ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬
ߎࠇߪ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߣ⁛┙ߦ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ઀ᣇߘߩ߽ߩߦࠃߞߡ᳿ቯߐࠇࠆ෼ᡰࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߥ߅㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⋧ኻ⊛ߥᄢ߈ߐࠍ⴫⃻ߔࠆߚ߼ẜ࿷⊛ GDP ߦኻߔࠆᲧ₸ࠍ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬
࿑⴫ 3 ߪ㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔ߥ߅㧘⍴ᦼᄌേಽࠍട߃ߚታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦߟ
޿ߡߪኻฬ⋡ GDP Ყߢ␜ߒߡ޽ࠆ㧕4)‫ޕ‬ ߎࠇߦࠃࠆߣ 1990 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1.6㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝
࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻẜ࿷⊛ GDP Ყߪ HP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ 0.5㧑㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ 1.2㧑ߣߎࠇࠃࠅૐߊ㧘৻ᣇ BN ಽ⸃ߢߪ 1.7㧑ߣ߶߷᳓Ḱߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬1999 ᐕᐲߢߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ㧙3.5㧑
ߦ߹ߢૐਅߒߚ߇㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ HP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ㧙2.2㧑㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ
㧙2.6㧑㧘BN ಽ⸃㧙3.3㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ‫⿒ߩࠬࡦ࡜ࡃ࡮࡯࡝ࡑࠗ࡜ࡊߦࠄߐޕ‬ሼ߇ኻ GDP Ყߢࡇ࡯ࠢߢ޽ߞߚ3) ৻⥸ᱦ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪ p=1 ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬4) ẜ࿷⊛ GDP ߩ⸘▚ߪౝ㑑ᐭ(2003)ߦࠃࠆᣇᴺࠍេ↪ߒߚ‫ޕ‬- 33 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

2003 ᐕᐲ㧔㧙4.0㧑㧕ߪ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇ㧙3.1㧑㧘㧙3.2㧑㧘෸߮㧙3.7㧑ߣ⸘▚ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬㐳ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩേะࠍⷰኤߔࠆߦߪẜ࿷⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⷗ࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄ࠍ✚ว⊛ߦൊ᩺ߔࠆߣ㧘ㄭᐕߩታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦᲧߴߡ㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᄌേߩᓇ
㗀ߦࠃߞߡ㧘߅ࠃߘ 0.5㨪1.0㧑ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᖡൻߒߡⷰኤߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬

2.㩷 90 ᐕઍ䈱ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈫⽷᡽෼ᡰ
2.1㩷 ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈱᭎ⷐ ೨┨ߢߺߡ߈ߚࠃ߁ߦ㧘90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡਛᄩ᡽ᐭ㧔৻⥸ળ⸘㧕ߩ෼ᡰߪߘࠇએ೨ߦᲧߴ⿒ሼၮ⺞߇᜛ᄢߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬⢛᥊ߦߪ㐳ᦼߦࠊߚࠆ᥊᳇ૐㅅ╬߳ߩኻᔕࠍⴕߞߚ⚿ᨐߣߒߡ㧘౏౒੐ᬺߥߤߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴
ߩ᜛ᄢߣ৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߦࠃࠆ⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩᷫዋ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߢߺߚ౏౒੐ᬺ⾌ߪ㧘1992 ᐕᐲߩ 9.7
ళ౞߆ࠄ 1998 ᐕᐲߦߪ 13.0 ళ౞߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߚ߇㧘ߘߩᓟዊᴰ᡽ᮭߥߤߦࠃࠆᱦ಴೥ᷫࠍฃߌߡ㧘2005 ᐕ
ᐲߦߪ 8.4 ళ౞ߦ߹ߢᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪ 90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡ߅߅߻ߨᷫዋ௑ะߦ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᚲᓧߩિ߮ᖠߺߥߤߦࠃࠆ⒢෼ߩૐਅߦട߃ߡ㧘৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߘߩᄢ߈ߥⷐ࿃ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩേะࠍᝄࠅ㄰ࠆߣᲤᐕᐲߩ⒢೙ߩ⷗⋥ߒߦട߃㧘90 ᐕઍߦߪਃߟߩᄢ߈ߥ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߚ‫ᦨޕ‬ೋߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߪ 1994 ᐕߦ╷ቯߐࠇߚ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ޽ࠅ㧘1994㨪96 ᐕᐲߦ߆ߌߡ 5.5 ళ౞ⷙᮨߩᷫ⒢ࠍ
ⴕ߁ߣ޿߁߽ߩߢ޽ߞߚ‫ߡ޿⛯ߦࠇߎޕ‬㧘1994 ᐕ 11 ᦬ߦߪ㧘ᚲᓧ⒢࡮૑᳃⒢ߩᕡਭᷫ⒢㧔ٌ3.5 ళ౞㧕㧘ᶖ⾌⒢₸ᒁ߈਄ߍ㧔㧗4.1 ళ౞㧕ߥߤࠍᩇߣߔࠆో㕙⊛ߥ⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ᚑ┙ߒߚ‫ޕ‬1997 ᐕߩᶖ⾌⒢₸ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߦవ┙ߜ㧘୘ੱᚲᓧ⒢╬ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ 1995 ᐕᐲ߆ࠄవⴕᷫ⒢߇ታᣉߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
 1998 ᐕߦߪᴺੱ⒢ᡷ㕟ࠍᩇߣߔࠆ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇ㧘ᴺੱ⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍߣߣ߽ߦ✚㗵 4.0 ళ౞ߦ਄ࠆ
ᚲᓧ⒢ߩ․೎ᷫ⒢߇ታᣉߐࠇߚ‫ߦࠄߐޕ‬㧘1999 ᐕᐲߦߪᕡਭ⊛ߥᷫ⒢ߣߒߡ㧘୘ੱᚲᓧ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߪᦨ㜞⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍߣቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߩታᣉߦࠃߞߡ 4.1 ళ౞ⷙᮨ㧘߹ߚᴺੱ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߪၮᧄ⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍ╬ߦ
ࠃߞߡ 2.5 ళ౞ⷙᮨߩᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ߜ߁ߩߎޕ‬ᚲᓧ⒢ߩቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߦߟ޿ߡߪ 2007 ᐕᐲߦᑄᱛߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᚲᓧ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߺࠆߣ㧘1994 ᐕߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ 3.8 ళ౞㧘1995㨪96 ᐕᐲߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢߘࠇߙࠇ 2.0 ళ౞㧘
1994 ᐕߩᛮᧄ⊛ߥ⒢೙ᐲߩᄌᦝߦ઻߁ᚲᓧ⒢ᡷ㕟ߢ 2.4 ళ౞㧘1998 ᐕᐲߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ 2.8 ళ౞㧘ߐࠄߦ 1999ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߢᲤᐕ 3.0 ళ౞ߩᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߚߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄ߪ޿ߕࠇ੍߽▚㧘⵬ᱜ੍▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߢ޽ࠅ㧘᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߣߒߡߤࠇߛߌߩ⒢෼ᷫߣߥߞߚ߆ࠍ♖✺ߦផ⸘ߔࠆߎߣߪ㔍ߒ޿‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘⒢೙ᡷ
ᱜߩᓇ㗀߇⽷᡽෼ᡰߦߤߩ⒟ᐲߩᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߒߚ߆ࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆߦߪ㧘૗ࠄ߆ߩᣇᴺ߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆ 5)‫ߎߘޕ‬ߢ㧘߿߿◲ଢߥᣇᴺߢߪ޽ࠆ߇㧘એਅߩᣇᴺߦࠃߞߡ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߦ߅ߌࠆ⒢෼߳ߩᓇ㗀ࠍផ⸘ߒߚ‫ޕ‬

2.2 ᷫ⒢䈮䉋䉎ᱦ౉ᷫ䈱ផ⸘ᣇᴺ
 90 ᐕઍߦⴕࠊࠇߚ⒢೙ᡷᱜߩᓇ㗀ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ᰴߩࠃ߁ߥᣇᴺߢផ⸘ࠍⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬Ԙ੍▚ᦠ㧔᩺㧕෸߮⵬ᱜ੍▚᩺㧔᡽ᐭ੍▚᩺㧕ߦ⸥タߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⒅⒢೙ᐲᡷᱜߦࠃࠆჇᷫ⒢ߩ୯ࠍ⒢⒳ߏߣߦ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ԙ੍▚᩺㧔⵬ᱜ੍▚᩺㧕ߩ⒢෼⷗ㄟߺߦԘߩჇᷫ⒢ߩ㗵ࠍട߃ߡ㧘೙ᐲᡷᱜ߇ߥ޿ߣߒߚ႐วߩ⒢෼
ࠍ⒢⒳ߏߣߦ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬5) ർᶆ࡮㐳᎑(2006)ߥߤ߽ෳᾖ‫ޕ‬- 34 -

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ࿑⴫䋴㩷 㩷 ᷫ⒢᡽╷᩺䈫䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䋨ኻ㪞㪛㪧Ყ䇮䋦䋩㩷
࿑⴫4䇭ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈫䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䋨ኻGDPᲧ䇮䋦䋩
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
ታ❣୯

⒢೙ᡷᱜ䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮⒢೙ᡷᱜ䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว䈮䈧䈇䈩䈲⪺⠪䈱⸘▚䈮䉋䉎䇯

Ԛฦ⒢⒳೎ߦ᳞߼ߚ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ෼౉ߩ୯ߦ㧘ߘߩ⒢⒳ߦ߅ߌࠆ㧔੍▚㧗Ⴧᷫ⒢㧕㧛੍▚㗵ߩഀวࠍਸ਼ߓߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩߘߩᐕᐲߩ⒢෼㧔᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ࠍផ⸘ߔࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬ว⸘ࠍ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ⒅⒢෼౉㗵ߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ԛᱦ౉ᷫߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘᳿▚㗵㧔ታ❣㧕ߣᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ᳿▚㗵㧔Ԛߩផ⸘୯㧕ߣߩᏅߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ એ਄ߩઁ㧘⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ᳞߼ࠆߦߪᷫ⒢╬߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߦᔅⷐߥ౏ௌ㊄ߩ᳓Ḱ╬ߦߟ޿ߡ߽ផ⸘ߔࠆᔅ
ⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ߪߡ޿ߟߦࠇߎޕ‬㧘ᰴߩࠃ߁ߦ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬Ԝ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩ㗵߆ࠄԛߢ᳞߼ߚ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩᷫ⒢㗵ࠍᒁ޿ߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ
౏ௌ㊄ߩᔅⷐ㗵ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ԝ࿖ௌ⾌߆ࠄᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩ౏ௌ㊄෼౉㧔Ԝߩផ⸘୯㧕ࠍᒁ޿ߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐ว
ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ߥ߅㧘ផ⸘ߦ޽ߚߞߡߪ 2.1 ߢᢛℂߒߚᄢⷙᮨߥ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩߺߥࠄߕ㧘Ფᐕᐲߩᡷ㕟ߩᓇ㗀ࠍ⠨ᘦߒ㧘
1989㨪2005 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߩ⒢෼㗵ߩផ⸘ࠍⴕߞߚ㧔ߎࠇߦߪჇ⒢߽฽߹ࠇࠆ㧕‫⚿ߩߘޕ‬ᨐ㧘1989㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ
17 ᐕ㑆ߦࠊߚࠆ⒅⒢෼౉ߩว⸘㗵ߪ 869.5 ళ౞ߦߩ߷ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥ޿ߣߒߚ႐วߩ⒅⒢෼౉ߩ⚥Ⓧ㗵ߪ 943.3 ళ౞ߣߥࠅ㧘17 ᐕ㑆ߢ 73.8 ళ౞㧘⒅⒢෼౉ߩ߅ࠃߘ 7.8㧑߇ᷫ⒢ߐࠇߚߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬ ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ㧔ኻฬ⋡ GDP Ყ㧕ߩ୯ࠍផ⸘ߒ
ߚ⚿ᨐ߇࿑⴫ 4 ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᣢߦ⚫੺ߒߚࠃ߁ߦ㧘1990 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1.6㧑ߢ޽ࠅ㧘90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡᰴ╙ߦ⿒ሼൻߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1994 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ㧙0.6㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߦߪ෻ኻߦ 0.1㧑ߣ㤥ሼߢ޽ߞߚ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘1999 ᐕᐲߪ㧙3.5㧑߹ߢࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮
ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼߪ᜛ᄢߒߚ߇㧘⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥߌࠇ߫㧙2.4㧑ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ߚߣផ⸘ߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬2003 ᐕᐲߦࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼ߇ኻ GDP Ყߢ㧙4.0㧑ߣࡇ࡯ࠢߣߥߞߚ߇㧘ห᭽ߦቯ₸ᷫ⒢╬߇ታᣉߐࠇߡ
޿ߥߌࠇ߫㧙3.2㧑ߢ޽ߞߚߣផ⸘ߐࠇߚ‫ޕ‬- 35 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

3.㩷 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ
3.1㩷 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ
3.1.1㩷 ℂ⺰⊛ᢛℂ ᡽ᐭߪߘߩ⿒ሼࠍ᳗⛯⊛ߦჇടߐߖࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆‫⚻ޕ‬ᷣ߇േቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆ႐
วߦߪ㧘ߎ߁ߒߚߎߣ߽น⢻ߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬േቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒߣߪ㐳ᦼ೑ሶ₸߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ
⁁ᘒߢ޽ࠅ㧘⾗ᧄࠬ࠻࠶ࠢ߇ㆊ೾ߦ⚥Ⓧߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⚻ᷣߢ޽ࠆߣ⸃ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ 6)‫ޕ‬㐳ᦼ೑ሶ₸ߩ᳓Ḱ߇౏ௌߩ೑࿁ࠅߣ╬ߒߊ㧘ߎࠇ߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠇ߫㧘଀߃⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോߩ᳓Ḱ߇⤘ᄢߢ޽ߞߡ߽㧘੹ᓟࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⛽ᜬߒߡ޿ߊߎߣߢ㧘ኻ GDP Ყߢߺߚ᡽ᐭௌോߩ᳓Ḱߪᰴ╙ߦዊߐߊߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߦߥࠆ㧔ߎࠇࠍ࠼࡯ࡑ࡯᧦ઙߣ޿߁㧕‫ޕ‬ߪߚߒߡߎ߁ߒߚേቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒ߇㐳ᦼߦࠊߚߞߡ⛮⛯ߐࠇᓧࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆‫ޕ‬ㆊ෰ߩ࿖ௌߩ೑࿁
ࠅ㧘ታ⾰⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ߩേะࠍߺࠆߣ㧘೑ሶ₸߇ᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆᤨᦼ߇㐳ߊ⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆߣߪ޿޿߇ߚ
޿ 7)‫߫ࠇ޽ߢ߁ߘޕ‬㧘േቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣߦ߅޿ߡߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⛽ᜬߔࠆߛߌߢߪߥߊ㧘
ࠃࠅⓍᭂ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡߇ⷐ᳞ߐࠇࠆߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬႐ว㧘᡽ᐭߪᲤᐕߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍဋⴧߐߖࠆᔅⷐߪߥ
޿߽ߩߩ㧘⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫⃻ߜࠊߥߔޕ‬࿷㧘⽷᡽⿒ሼ߇⊒↢ߒ᡽ᐭௌോ߇
޽ߞߚߣߒߡ߽㧘዁᧪⊛ߦߪ⽷᡽㤥ሼࠍ↢ߺ಴ߒߡௌോߩჇടಽࠍ⋧Ვߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ὐࠍ⹦⚦ߦ␜ߒߡ߅ߎ߁‫ޕ‬᡽ᐭᡰ಴ࠍ G㧘⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ T㧘᡽ᐭௌോࠍ B㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩჇಽ㧔౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߦ⋧ᒰ㧕ࠍٌB㧘೑ሶ₸ࠍ rߣߔࠆ㧔ߎߎߢ೑ሶ₸ r ߪ৻ቯߣ઒ቯߔࠆ㧕‫ޕ‬t ᦼߩ᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂ߪ(4)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ 8)‫ޕ‬

Gt + rBt −1 = Tt + ΔBt                        (4)(4)ᑼࠍ዁᧪ߦะߌߡઍ౉⸘▚ࠍ➅ࠅ㄰ߖ߫㧘∞

Bt −1 = ¦ (1 + r ) −( j +1) [Tt + j − Gt + j ] + lim (1 + r ) −( j +1) Bt + j      
j =0

j →∞

  

(5)

߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᡽ᐭௌോ߇⊒ᢔߒߥ޿ߣ޿߁ᮮᢿᕈ᧦ઙ㧔No Ponzi ᧦ઙ㧕ߪ(6)ᑼߢ␜ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬lim (1 + r ) − ( j +1) Bt + j = 0

(6)

j →∞

ߔߥࠊߜ㧘⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോߪ዁᧪ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯㤥ሼߦࠃߞߡ⋧Ვߢ߈ࠆࠃ߁ߦ᡽ᐭ߇⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕ߁ߎ
ߣߦࠃࠅ㧘⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔߣ޿߁ߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬
3.1.2 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ䈮㑐䈜䉎ታ⸽ಽᨆ ᡽ᐭ߇⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ߦߟ޿ߡߩታ⸽⊛ߥಽᨆߪ㧘1980 ᐕઍ߆ࠄߐ߹ߑ߹
ߥᣇᴺߦࠃߞߡⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ ߪߡ޿ߟߦ⚦⹦ޕ‬Bohn(1995,2005)߿ Polito and Wickens(2007)ߦ⹦ߒ޿ߩߢ㧘ߎߎߢߪߘߩ᭎⇛ࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆߦߣߤ߼ࠆ‫ߩ৻╙ޕ‬ᣇᴺߪ㧘Hamilton and Flavin(1986)ߦઍ⴫ߐࠇࠆᣇᴺߢ㧘(5)ᑼߩฝㄝ╙ੑ㗄ߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ㗄ࠍࡃࡉ࡞㗄ߣߒߡ㧘ߎࠇ߇᦭ᗧߦ࠯ࡠߢ޽ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ࠍᬌ⸽ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽
ࠆ‫╙ޕ‬ੑߩᣇᴺߪ㧘᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉߇㐳ᦼ⊛ߦ౒๺ಽ㑐ଥߦ޽ࠇ߫㧘ߘߩᏅߢ޽ࠆ⽷᡽෼ᡰߪቯᏱߣ
6)⹦⚦ߪ Abel etc.(1989)ࠍෳᾖ‫ޕ‬╩⠪ߩផ⸘ߢߪ㧘ㄭᐕߢߪ 1988㨪90 ᐕߩࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߩ৻ᤨᦼࠍ㒰߈㧘೑ሶ₸߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬8)᡽ᐭߩ෼౉ߦߪߎߩઁ㧘ㅧᐊᮭ㧔Seignorage㧕ߦࠃࠆ⽻ᐊഃㅧ㧔money creation㧕ࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ߎߎߢߪ⋭⇛ߔࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘೑ሶ₸ࠍ৻ቯߣ઒ቯߒߚ߇㧘ߎߩ઒ቯࠍ✭߼ࠆߎߣߪኈᤃߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬7)- 36 -

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔߥࠅ㧘⚿ᨐ⊛ߦ(5)ᑼࠍḩߚߔߣߔࠆ Trehan and Walsh(1988)ߥߤߦࠃࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫╙ޕ‬ਃߪ㧘Bohn(1995)ߥ
ߤߢឭ᩺ߐࠇߚᣇᴺߢ㧘⽷᡽⿒ሼ㧔ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯⿒ሼ㧕߇᜛ᄢߒߚ႐วߦ᡽ᐭߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ
ࠍᡷༀߔࠆࠃ߁ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ߆㧘ߣ޿߁ⷞὐ߆ࠄ್ᢿߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࠊ߇࿖ߦ߅޿ߡ߽એ਄ߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ߚታ⸽ಽᨆ߇ⴕࠊࠇߡ߈ߚ 9)‫࡞ࡉࡃޕ‬㗄ߩሽ࿷ࠍᬌቯߔࠆߎߣߢ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍᬌ⸽ߒߚ੐଀ߣߒߡߪ Fukuda and Teruyama (1994)߿࿯ዬ࡮ਛ㉿(1998)߇޽ࠅ㧘޿ߕࠇ߽ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ߪᜬ⛯น⢻ߢ޽ࠆߣ޿߁⚿⺰ࠍዉ޿ߡ޿ࠆ‫౒ޕ‬๺ಽಽᨆߩᚻᴺࠍ↪޿ߚട⮮(1997)ߪ㧘෻ኻߦᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪ⹺߼ࠄࠇߥ޿ߣ⚿⺰ߠߌߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ㄭᐕߢߪ᦭ജߥᬌ⸽ᣇᴺߣߥߞߚ Bohn(1995)ߩᣇᴺ
ࠍ೑↪ߒߚ࿯ዬ(2000㧘2005)ߥߤ߽ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍุቯߔࠆ⚿⺰ࠍᓧߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬

3.2 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ዉ಴᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩᬌ⸽ߦ㑐ߒߡ⠨ᘦߔߴ߈ὐߣߒߡ㧘᡽ᐭ߇዁᧪ߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩ⚻〝ࠍࠦࡦ࠻ࡠ࡯࡞ߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆߚ߼㧘(5)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍ⃻࿷ᤨὐߢ⹏ଔߢ߈ߥ޿ߣ޿߁ߎߣ߇޽ࠆ‫⤘ޕ‬ᄢߥௌോࠍ⽶ߞߡ޿ࠆ᡽ᐭ߇੹ᓟ㧘⽷᡽෼ᡰߩ㤥ሼൻࠍⴕ߁ߣት⸒
ߒߚߣߔࠇ߫㧘ታ㓙ߦ㤥ሼ߇↢ߺ಴ߐࠇߥ޿ߣߒߡ߽㧘⃻ᤨὐߢߪᜬ⛯น⢻ߥ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆߣߺߥߐࠇࠆน
⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ߪߣߎߩߎޕ‬㧘(5)ᑼ߇⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ೙⚂ߣߒߡචಽߥലജࠍ⊒ើߢ߈ߥ޿ߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ 10)‫ޕ‬
Polito and Wickens(2007)ߪߎ߁ߒߚ⺖㗴ߦኻᔕߔࠆߚ߼㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜰᮡࠍឭ᩺ߒߚ‫ޕ‬એਅ㧘ዊᢥሼߪታ⾰ൻߒߚᄌᢙࠍ␜ߔߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬᡽ᐭᡰ಴ࠍ g t 㧘⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ t t 㧘᡽ᐭௌോࠍ bt 㧘GDP ࠍ y t 㧘ฬ⋡೑ሶ₸ࠍ Rt 㧘‛ଔ਄᣹₸ࠍπ t 㧘⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍγ t ߣߒ㧘߹ߚ㧘

1 + rt =1 + Rt
1 + Rt 㧘1 + ρ t =
(1 + π t )(1 + γ t )1+ πtߣߔࠆ‫(ޕ‬4)ᑼ߆ࠄ೑ሶ₸ߪนᄌ⊛ߢ޽ࠆߣߒߡ㧘(7)ᑼ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬g t + (1 + rt )bt −1 = t t + bt

(7)

ߐࠄߦ(7)ᑼࠍ y t ߢ㒰ߒߡᢛℂߔࠆߣ

bt
g
t
b
= t − t + (1 + ρ t ) t −1yyyt yt
y t −1(8)ߣߥࠆ‫ߢߎߎޕ‬ቯᏱ⁁ᘒࠍ઒ቯߒ㧘ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆᄌᢙ߆ࠄᷝ߃ሼ t ࠍ㒰ߊߣ

ρ

b
g t
=− +
y
y y

(9)

ߣߥࠆ‫(ޕ‬9)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘(8)ᑼߦ㑐ߔࠆ৻ᰴߩ࠹ࠗ࡜࡯ዷ㐿ࠍⴕ߁ߣᰴᑼ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬

ln

9)
10)

b
bt
g g
t t
≅ c + ln t − ln t + (1 + ρ ) ln(1 + ρ t ) + (1 + ρ ) ln t −1   
b yt b yt
y t −1ytߎࠇࠄߦ㑐ߔࠆࠨ࡯ࡌࠗߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘࿯ዬ(2004)߿੗ၳ࡮࿯ዬ(2007)ࠍෳᾖߐࠇߚ޿‫ޕ‬Bohn (1995,2005) ߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᆫ൓ࠍ⹏ଔߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬- 37 -

 (10)

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

c = − ρ ln

b g g t t
− ln + ln − (1 + ρ ) ln(1 + ρ )y b y b y(11)ߎߎߢ ρ t ≅ Rt − π t − γ t ߣߒ㧘േቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣࠍ⠨߃ࠇ߫ ρ t > 0 ߢ޽ࠆߩߢ㧘(10)ᑼࠍ೨ᣇߦ⸃ߌ
߫(12)ᑼ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ‫ ޕ‬E t ߪᤨὐ t ߦ߅ߌࠆᦼᓙ୯ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ln§ b · nbt
= (1 + ρ ) − n Et ¨¨ ln t + n ¸¸ − ¦ (1 + ρ ) − s E t (k t + s )yt© y t + n ¹ s =1

kt = c +g g t t tt
ln − ln + (1 + ρ ) ln(1 + ρ t )         
b yt b yt(12)   (13)(6)ᑼߩᗧ๧ߢ⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇⛽ᜬߐࠇߡ޿ࠇ߫㧘(12)ᑼߩฝㄝ╙ 1 㗄ߪᮮᢿᕈ᧦ઙߣ⸃㉼ߐࠇࠆߩߢ㧘(14)ᑼ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

ln

n
bt
= −¦ (1 + ρ ) − s Et (k t + s )
yt
s =1

(14)

 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⋡ᮡߣߒߡ㧘ዋߥߊߣ߽዁᧪ߩ޽ࠆ৻ቯᦼ㑆ߦ߅޿ߡ⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോ
ߩኻ GDP Ყࠍᖡൻߐߖߥ޿ߣߔࠆ‫߈ߣߩߎޕ‬㧘(15)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬FSI (t , n) =K t ,n(15)

bt / y tߚߛߒ㧘 ln K t ,n = (1 + ρ )

−n

ln

n
bt
− ¦ (1 + ρ ) − s Et (k t + s )y t s =1ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ FSI (t , n) ߇ 1 ߣ╬ߒ޿ߣ߈㧘዁᧪ߩ৻ቯᦼ㑆㧔 n ᦼ㑆㧕ߦ߅޿ߡ㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩኻ GDPᲧߪ⃻࿷ߣᄌࠊࠄߥ޿᳓Ḱߦ⛽ᜬߐࠇࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߔ‫ߩߎޕ‬ᜰᮡ߇ 1 ࠃࠅዊߐ޿ߣ߈ߪ᡽ᐭௌോߩኻ GDPᲧߪ⃻࿷ࠃࠅᖡൻ㧘ㅒߦ 1 ࠍ⿥߃ࠆߣ߈ߪ⃻࿷ࠃࠅᡷༀߔࠆߣ⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬

4. 90 ᐕઍ䈮䈍䈔䉎⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱⹏ଔ
4.1 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ䈱ᬌ⸽
4.1.1 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘ᣇᴺ ೨┨ߢ␜ߒߚ Polito and Wickens(2007)ߦࠃࠆ⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ(15)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬ ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘ߦ㑐ߒߡߪᰴߩࠃ߁ߥ೨ឭࠍ⟎޿ߚ‫(ޕ‬15)ᑼߦ޽ࠆࠃ߁ߦ㧘዁᧪ߩ৻ቯᦼ㑆ࠍቯ߼㧘ߘߩᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩᦼᓙ୯ࠍቯ߼ࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ᦨޕ‬ೋߦቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߒ㧘⹏ଔߔࠆᤨὐ߆ࠄ 3 ᐕᐲవ߹ߢࠍ࠲࡯ࠥ࠶࠻ߣߒߡታ❣୯ࠍណ↪ߔࠆ‫ߜࠊߥߔޕ‬㧘1997 ᐕᐲߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ⹏
ଔߦߟ޿ߡߪ 1998㨪2000 ᐕᐲߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉ߩታ❣୯ࠍᦼᓙ୯ߣߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᰴߦ㧘ฦᄌᢙߩቯᏱ
⁁ᘒߩ୯ߪ㧘ផ⸘ᦼ㑆ࠍ 1975㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ 30 ᐕ㑆㧔ᜰᮡߩផ⸘ߪ 2002 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߩ 27 ᐕᐲ㑆㧕ߣߒߡ㧘ߘߩᦼ㑆ߩᐔဋ୯ࠍ૶↪ߒߚ‫ޕ‬1975 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߣߒߚߩߪ㧘╙৻ᰴ⍹ᴤෂᯏߦ߅ߌࠆᣣᧄ⚻ᷣߩ᭴ㅧᄌൻߩ
ᤨᦼࠍⷞ㊁ߦ౉ࠇࠆߣߣ߽ߦ㧘․଀࿖ௌ߇ቯ଀ൻߒߚᤨᦼࠍᗐቯߒߚߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬- 38 -

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ

࿑⴫5䇭ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘࿑⴫䋵㩷 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘㩷
1.4
1.40001.3
1.30001.2
1.20001.1
1.10001.0
1.00000.9
0.90000.8
0.80000.7
0.70000.6
0.60001975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ

ᷫ⒢䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹ઁ ᔅⷐߥ࠺࡯࠲ߣߘߩടᎿߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘એਅߩࠃ߁ߦⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬ᄌᢙߩታ⾰୯ߩ૞ᚑߦߟ޿ߡߪ GDP ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚߇ 68SNA ߆ࠄ 93SNA ߦᄌᦝߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼㧘ߎࠇࠄߩធ⛯ࠍⴕߞߡታ⾰࿖ౝ✚↢↥♽೉ࠍ᳞߼㧘ߎࠇ߆ࠄ GDP ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ࠍ⸘▚ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߦߟ޿ߡߪߎߩ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ߢታ⾰ൻߒ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ FSI (t , n) ߦᔅⷐߥᄌᢙߩ⸘▚ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬೑ሶ₸ߦߟ޿ߡߪ࿖ௌ⾌ߦභ߼ࠆ೑ሶᛄ޿ߩ⾌↪ߣ೨ᐕߩ৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔࠆ࿖ௌᱷ㜞߆ࠄ੐ᓟ⊛ߦ⸘▚ߒߚ୯ࠍ↪޿ߚ‫ޕ‬એ਄ߩ⚿ᨐ㧘1975㨪2005 ᐕᐲߦ߅ߌࠆ ρ ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 1.28㧑ߢᱜߩ୯ࠍߣࠅ㧘ߒߚ߇ߞߡ(12)ᑼߩ
ᚻ㗅߇ㆡᒰߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇⏕⹺ߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬એਅߢߪ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߩ઒ቯߩਅߢⴕߞߚᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘⚿ᨐߣ㧘90 ᐕઍߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆
ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߦ⸘▚ߐࠇࠆหᜰᮡߩ⚿ᨐࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ߥ߅㧘ᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐ว㧘ߎࠇߦࠃߞߡ᥊᳇᜛ᄢലᨐ߇ታ⃻ߖߕ㧘࿖ౝ✚↢↥߿೑ሶ₸ߥߤߩࡑࠢࡠᄌᢙߩታ❣୯ߦᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߔน
⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ផ⸘ߢߪߎ߁ߒߚᓇ㗀ߪ฽߼ߡ޿ߥ޿‫ޕ‬
4.1.2 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘⚿ᨐ ࿑⴫ 5 ߪᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᜰᮡ߇ 1 ࠍ⿥߃ߡ޿ࠆ႐วߪ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇ᡷༀߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߒ㧘1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ႐วߦߪᖡൻߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ㆊ෰ߦ߅޿
ߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇ᦨ߽ᡷༀߐࠇߚᤨᦼߪ 1987 ᐕᐲߢ޽ࠅᜰᮡߩ᳓Ḱߪ 1.37 ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1980ᐕઍߪ߅߅߻ߨ 1.20 ࠍ਄࿁ࠅ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߚᤨᦼߢ޽ࠆ‫ࠄ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘1990 ᐕઍߦ౉ࠆߣᕆㅦߦૐਅߒ㧘
1994 ᐕᐲߩ 1.07 ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚᓟߪ㧘
1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߚ߹߹ߩ⁁ᘒߢ޽ࠅ㧘
1997 ᐕᐲߦ 0.85㧘
2000 ᐕᐲߦߪ 0.80 ߹ߢૐਅߒߚᓟ㧘2002 ᐕᐲߢߪ 0.87 ߹ߢ࿁ᓳߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍߺࠆߣ㧘߅߅߻ߨ਄⸥ߩផ⸘୯ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1997 ᐕᐲߩ᳓Ḱߪ 0.88 ߢ޽ࠅ 0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㧘2000 ᐕᐲߩ୯ߪ 0.84 ߢߎࠇ߽ 0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㧘߹ߚ 2002 ᐕᐲߪ 0.91
ߢ 0.04 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㜞޿୯ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ߜࠊߥߔޕ‬㧘⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߦࠃࠆ 90 ᐕઍߩ৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ߆ࠄߺࠆߣ߅ࠃߘ 0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ߢ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬- 39 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

࿑⴫6䇭ቢో੍⷗䈫ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ䈱Ყセ࿑⴫䋶㩷 ቢో੍⷗䈫ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ䈱Ყセ㩷
1.2
1.200
ቢో੍⷗
ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ

1.0
1.000

0.8
0.800

0.600
0.6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹ઁ

4.2 VAR 䊝䊂䊦䉕↪䈇䈢ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘ એ਄ߢߪቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ޿ߚ߇㧘᡽ᐭ߇ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮ޿ߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ߚߣߔࠆߣ㧘ߤߩࠃ߁ߥ㆑޿߇↢ߓࠆߢ޽ࠈ߁‫ߪߢߎߎޕ‬㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߊᄌᢙߩ዁᧪ᦼᓙ୯ࠍ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߡ૞ᚑߒ㧘ߘߩ੍᷹୯ࠍ೑↪ߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬
VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߚ㧘዁᧪ߩᦼᓙ୯ߩ૞ᚑᣇᴺߪᰴߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ‫(ޕ‬14)ᑼߩ⸘▚ߦᔅⷐߥᄌᢙࠍੑߟ
ߩᄌᢙ⟲㧔ᄌᢙ⟲ A㧔೑ሶ₸㧘‛ଔ਄᣹₸㧘ᚑ㐳₸㧕ߣᄌᢙ⟲ B㧔b/y㧘g/y㧘t/y㧕㧕ߦಽߌߡ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇߩ
ᄌᢙ⟲ߏߣߦ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផ⸘ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ផ⸘ኻ⽎ߪ 1993㨪2002 ᐕᐲߩ 10 ᐕᐲ㑆ߣߒ㧘VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪኻ
⽎ᐕᐲߩㆊ෰ 20 ᐕᐲ㑆ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૶↪ߒߡផቯࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ࡜ࠣᰴᢙߪੑᦼ࡜ࠣߣߒ
ߚ‫ߡߞ߇ߚߒޕ‬㧘1993 ᐕᐲߦߟ޿ߡߪ 1973㨪93 ᐕᐲߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍኻ⽎ߦ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផ⸘ߒ㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐ߆
ࠄ 1994㨪96 ᐕߩᔅⷐߥᄌᢙߩ੍᷹୯ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄ߢᓧߚ੍᷹୯ࠍ߽ߣߦ㧘⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ(15)ᑼࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࿑⴫ 6 ߪߎߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ ߨ߻߅߅ޕ‬VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߚㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦࠃࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦၮߊᜰᮡࠃࠅ߽ᄢ߈ߥ୯ࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1997 ᐕᐲߩ୯ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦࠃࠆ
ᜰᮡߪ 0.85 ߣ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪᖡൻߒߡ޿ࠆߣ⸘▚ߐࠇߚ߇㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߠߊᜰᮡߢߪ 1.09
ߣᡷༀ௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬1998 ᐕᐲߪਔᜰᮡߣ߽ 0.89 ߣ৻⥌ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦࠃࠆᜰᮡߪᖡൻ௑ะ
ࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߢߪᡷༀߦะ߆ߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬2000 ᐕᐲߩᜰᮡߩ୯ߪߘࠇߙࠇ 0.80㧘0.94㧘
ߐࠄߦ 2001 ᐕᐲߢߪߘࠇߙࠇ 0.82㧘1.01 ߣߘߩᏅߪᐢ߇ߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ߎߩ⚿ᨐࠍߤߩࠃ߁ߦ⸃㉼ߔߴ߈ߢ޽ࠈ߁߆‫ޕ‬วℂ⊛ᦼᓙ߇ᚑ┙ߖߕ㧘᡽ᐭߪ዁᧪ࠍቢోߦ੍⷗ߔࠆߎ
ߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿ߩߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߠ޿ߡⴕേߔࠆߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬਄ߢ⷗ߚࠃ߁ߦㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߩ઒ቯߦߒߚ߇߁ߣߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚ႐วߩᣇ߇ቢో੍⷗ߩ႐วߦᲧߴᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㜞ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߎࠇߪ㧘᡽ᐭߪㆊ෰ߩ⿲൓ߦၮߠ޿ߚ್ᢿߦࠃߞߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍߒߡ޿ߚߣߒߡ߽㧘⃻ታߦߪߘࠇࠃࠅ߽෩
ߒ޿⚿ᨐߣߥߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽ࠅ㧘ㆊ෰ߩ⿲൓ߦߣࠄࠊࠇߕࠃࠅ෩ߒ޿್ᢿߩਅߢ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕ߁ߴ߈
ߢ޽ߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪߣߎߩߎޕ‬㧘᡽ᐭߪᷫ⒢᡽╷߿᡽ᐭᡰ಴᜛ᄢ߇⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ
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90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ㗀ࠍታ㓙ࠃࠅ߽ዊߐߊ⷗Ⓧ߽ߞߡ޿ߚߣ߽⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠃ߁‫ޕ‬䈍䉒䉍䈮 ᧄⓂߪਥߣߒߡ 1990 ᐕઍએ㒠ߩ᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩേะࠍ㧘
⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩⷞὐ߆ࠄᢛℂߔࠆߣߣ߽
ߦ㧘ቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߥߤߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ߎߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍ⠨ኤߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬
 90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡ৻⥸ળ⸘ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ௑ะ⊛ߦᖡൻߒ㧘ߘߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1993 ᐕᐲߩ㧙
0.5㧑߆ࠄ 1999 ᐕᐲߦߪ㧙3.5㧑㧘2002 ᐕᐲߢߪ㧙4.0㧑ߦ᜛ᄢߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘᡽ᐭᡰ಴߿⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᄌേߦ઻߁ᓴⅣㇱಽࠍ㒰޿ߚ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍផ⸘ߒ㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ߥ⽷᡽෼ᡰ߆ࠄࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜
ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣߘߎ߹ߢߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼߪ᜛ᄢߒߡ߅ࠄߕ㧘ታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦᲧߴ߅ࠃߘ 0.5㨪1.0㧑ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᖡൻߒߡⷰኤߐ
ࠇߡ޿ࠆߣߺࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ᰴ޿ߢ㧘1990 ᐕઍߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩേะࠍ᭎ⷰߒ㧘৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢╬ߦࠃߞߡ 1989 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩ 17 ᐕᐲ㑆ߢ⒢෼
ߩ 7.8㧑߇ᄬࠊࠇߡ޿ߚߣផ⸘ߒߚ‫ޕ‬⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߦߪ㧘਄ߢㅀߴߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ
࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪᅢォߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߢߪኻ GDP Ყߢ㧙3.5㧑ߢ޽ߞߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ㧘⒢೙ᡷ
ᱜ߇ߥߌࠇ߫㧙2.4㧑ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ߚߣߺࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍㆡಾߦ್ᢿߔࠆߦߪ㧘᡽ᐭ߇⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔࠃ߁ߦⴕേߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ߤ߁
߆ࠍᬌ⸽ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㧘Polito and Wickens(2007)ߦࠃࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ᳞߼㧘ㄭᐕߩേะࠍᬌ
⸛ߒߚ‫ޕ‬1980 ᐕઍߪߎߩᜰᮡߩ୯ߪ߅߅߻ߨ 1.20 ࠍ਄࿁ࠅ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪḩߚߐࠇߡ޿ߚ߇㧘ߒ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄ㧘1990 ᐕઍߦ౉ࠆߣᕆㅦߦૐਅߒ㧘1994 ᐕᐲߩ 1.07 ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚᓟߪ㧘1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߚ߹߹ߩ⁁ᘒ߇⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㧘ታ㓙ߩᜰᮡߩ᳓Ḱࠍ߅ࠃߘ 0.03
ࡐࠗࡦ࠻਄࿁ࠅᡷༀߔࠆ߽ߩߩ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍḩߚߔ᳓Ḱ߳ߩ࿁ᓳߦߪ⥋ࠄߥ޿‫ߩߘޕ‬ᗧ๧ߢߪ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߡ߽ෂ߁޿⁁ᘒߦ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ࠄߐޕ‬ߦ㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦࠃࠅᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ⹜▚ߒߚߣߎࠈ㧘ቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߔࠆࠃࠅ߽㜞޿୯߇ᓧࠄࠇߚ‫ޕ‬ߎߩߎߣߪ㧘᡽ᐭߪ㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷߿᡽ᐭᡰ಴᜛ᄢ߇⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍታ㓙ࠃࠅ߽ዊߐߊ⷗Ⓧ߽ߞߡ޿ߚߣ߽⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄ࠍ߹ߣ߼ࠆߣ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩⷞὐ߆ࠄ 90 ᐕઍߦߪ᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰߪ৻Ბߣᖡൻߒߚ
߇㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷ߥߤߩ৻ㅪߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩᓇ㗀߽ήⷞߢ߈ߥ޿‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆࠃࠅㆡಾ
ߥᜰᮡ߆ࠄߺࠆߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ߪߘࠇ߶ߤᄢ߈ߊߥߊ㧘90 ᐕઍߦߪ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ో⥸ߣߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇⢿
߆ߐࠇࠆⅣႺߦ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬- 41 -

ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.37㧔2008.3㧕

䋼ෳ⠨ᢥ₂䋾
੗ၳ೑ብ࡮࿯ዬਂᦶ(2007)㧘
‫⽷ޟ‬᡽᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ‫ޠ‬㧘ᨋᢥᄦ✬‫⚻ޡ‬ᷣ೙ᐲ⸳⸘‫ ╙ޢ‬1 ┨㧘ഹ⨲ᦠᚱ‫ޕ‬ട⮮ਭ๺(1997)㧘
‫⽷ޟ‬᡽⿒ሼߩ⃻⁁ߣ᡽ᐭௌോߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ‫ޠ‬㧘㔚ജਛᄩ⎇ⓥᚲႎ๔ Y97001‫ޕ‬ർᶆୃᢅ࡮㐳᎑ᜏੱ(2006)㧘
‫ޟ‬⒢෼േะߣ⒢෼ᒢᕈ୯ߦ㑐ߔࠆಽᨆ‫ޠ‬㧘੩ㇺᄢቇ⚻ᷣ⎇ⓥᚲ㧘Discussion Paper
No.0606‫ޕ‬⚻ᷣડ↹ᐡ(1998)㧘
‫⽷ޟ‬᡽෼ᡰᜰᮡߩ૞ࠅᣇ࡮૶޿ᣇ‫ޠ‬㧘‫ޡ‬೎ౠ࡮ࠛࠦࡁࡒ࠶ࠢ࡮࡝ࠨ࡯࠴‫ޢ‬No4㧘⚻ᷣડ↹ᐡ⚻ᷣ⎇ⓥᚲ‫ޕ‬࿯ዬਂᦶ(2004)㧘
‫ޟ‬᡽ᐭௌോߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩ⠨߃ᣇ‫ޠ‬
㧘PRI Discussion Paper Series (No.04A㧙02)㧘⽷ോ✚ว᡽╷⎇ⓥᚲ‫ޕ‬࿯ዬਂᦶ(2000)㧘
‫߇ࠊޟ‬࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ࿖ௌߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߣ⽷᡽ㆇ༡㧘੗ၳ೑ብ࡮ട⮮┥ᄥ࡮ਛ㊁⧷ᄦ࡮ਛ㉿ㅘ࡮࿯ዬਂᦶ࡮૒⮮ᱜ৻‫⽷ޡ‬᡽⿒ሼߩ⚻ᷣಽᨆ㧦ਛ㐳ᦼ⊛ⷞὐ߆ࠄߩ⠨ኤ‫ޢ‬㧘⚻ᷣಽᨆ࡮᡽╷ಽᨆߩⷞὐ
ࠪ࡝࡯࠭ 16 ภ㧘pp.9-35‫ޕ‬ౝ㑑ᐭ(2003)㧘
‫ޡ‬ᐔᚑ 15 ᐕᐲᐕᰴ⚻ᷣ⽷᡽ႎ๔‫ޢ‬‫ޕ‬⷏ፒஜม࡮ਛᎹ⵨Ꮧሶ(2000)㧘
‫߇ࠊޟ‬࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡ‫ޠ‬㧘ᣣᧄ㌁ⴕ⺞ᩏ⛔⸘ዪ㧘
Working Paper 00-16⢈ᓟ㓷ඳ࡮ਛ↰㧔㤥↰㧕␽ሶ(1998)㧘
‫⚻ޟ‬ᷣᄌᢙ߆ࠄၮ⺞⊛ᄌേࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆᤨ♽೉⊛ᚻᴺߦߟ޿ߡ‫ޠ‬㧘㊄Ⲣ⎇ⓥ㧘ᣣᧄ㌁ⴕ㊄Ⲣ⎇ⓥᚲ㧘p.39-98‫ޕ‬
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