Executive
Perspectives

How COVID-19 Changed
the Consumer
October 2021

CONSUMER SENTIMENT DRIVES LASTING DEMAND SHIFTSThe Delta variant of COVID-19 disrupted plans for a smooth recovery. In places suchas the US, it caused dips in consumer confidence. Consumers in emerging markets
have a relatively positive outlook and were less taken by surprise by the Delta wave.
Globally, the pandemic has accelerated behaviors that became habits—driving a

BCG Executive
Perspectives
IN THIS DOCUMENT

long-lasting shift toward e-commerce, digital, and in-home activities. This unlocked ashift in supply-side economics, which in turn has further supported adoption. The
behaviors and activities are likely to be long-lasting even as restrictions are lifted,
creating a new environment that businesses need to learn to play in.

COMPANIES MUST EMBRACE CHANGE IN THEIR SPACE
While different product categories have been impacted by the pandemic in different
ways, some are emerging as long-term winners, while others see a risk of lastingnegative impact.
Instead of trying to salvage prepandemic ways of doing business, companies must
accelerate growth by embracing new assumptions, uncovering consumer needs andopportunities to differentiate, and innovating on product, service, and channel
offerings aligned to the new behaviors.

Vaccine demand

Uncertain future

Online spending

Lasting changes

Reduced purchasing

87%

57%

45%

39%

-15%

Of respondents in
Brazil say they would
get the vaccine
when they are able toaccess it

Of US respondents
believe variants suchas Delta are the causeof a prolonged
pandemic

Of respondents inJapan saw anincrease in online
spending during the
pandemic

Of respondents in
Sweden believe they
will permanently
increase their use ofparcel delivery

Change in statedhouseholdspending in India

Sources: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment Research on Emerging-Market Consumers (July 2021), BCG US COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (August 2021), Statista, BCG Swedish Consumer Sentiment Survey (July 2021).

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COVID-19 has impacted consumer sentiment and behaviors worldwide

1

2

CONSUMER
TRENDSIMPLICATIONSFOR LEADERS

How COVID-19 Changed the Consumer
1

Delta variant has caused dips in consumer confidence in US, whereas emerging markets are relatively positive
despite the prolonged pandemic

2

Consumers are increasingly engaging in activities, with vaccines critical for return to normalcy

3

As first-time users increase adoption of digital, sticky behaviors emerge

4

Newly formed habits during the pandemic support a lasting move toward digital and in-home activities

5

Increased demand for select digital services has driven a shift in supply-side economics, which in turn can further
support customer proposition, adoption, and habituation

6

COVID-19 has seen a rise in consumer consciousness on matters like sustainability

Reset assumptions for categories with sustained impact and capitalize on shifting demand to outcompete laggards
and reestablish new baselines. To do that, deeply understand customers' needs and new behaviors, employ demandsensing, and drive innovation in products, channels, and business models based on new trends
As COVID-19 persists, some categories emerge as long-term winners, while others see a risk of lasting negative impact

3

CATEGORYOUTLOOK

Sources: BCG analysis and case experience.

1

Home improvement: surge in 2020 (forward buying) followed by decline in 2021; set to recover to pre-COVID levels

2

Pet supplies and services: sustained postpandemic growth expected, driven by structural shift in pet ownership

3

Luxury: adaptation to customer preferences and spending of accumulated wealth likely to lead to quick recovery

4

Restaurants: pent-up demand and lifting of restrictions as lockdowns ease will likely lead to rapid rebound5

Travel: expect high near-term demand in leisure travel with potential structural changes in business travel

6Entertainment: lasting shift to streaming and gaming likely to cause a drawn-out recovery path for movie theaters
4

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SummaryBCG Executive
Perspectives

Consumer sentiment and other key trends

AGENDA

Outlook for select categories

Implications for leaders

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

5

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HOW COVID-19 CHANGED THE
CONSUMER

Delta variant has caused a dip in consumer confidence in the US, while
emerging markets remain resilient despite prolonged pandemic
US consumers feared the worst was ahead withthe rise of Delta variant in August…
% of US respondents agreeing that the worst of COVID-19 is still
ahead
2020

2021

…whereas emerging markets have improving outlook
despite prolonged pandemic

56%

Of consumers in China believe things are"already back to where they should be"181%

Of Vietnamese consumers expect life
to go back to normal by end of 20212

63%

Of Saudi Arabian consumers think recovery
will occur by end of 20221

100
77
63
50

67

Coincides with rise in
Delta variant

50

48
17

0
Mar

May

Aug

Nov

May

Aug

1. Countries most optimistic about economic recovery from the pandemic, World Economic Forum Aug 2021. 2. Survey conducted by Singapore United Overseas Bank (press release: VNE Express International, Sep 2021)
Sources: BCG US COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (August 2021), BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment Research on Emerging-Market Consumers (July 2021). (Samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on
population.)

6

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1.1

Consumers are increasingly engaging in activities, with vaccines critical
for return to normalcy
Consumers continue to increase activities eventhough they state concerns
Taking adomestic flight

Dining indoors
at a restaurant

Going tothe gym% of US consumers concerned with doing the activity
Increase in concern 1
May vs. August 2021

71% to 76%+5 pp

60% to 67%+7 pp

69% to 74%+5 pp

Net stated change in US consumer habits (comparedwith before COVID-19) from May to August
Change in activity 2
May vs. August 2021

-67% to -58%

-61% to -52%

-53% to -43%

+9 pp

+9 pp

+10 ppVaccines are important for gathering safely;
emerging markets show high acceptance~50%

Of US respondents who stated that
increased vaccination is the top
requirement for them to safely gather
indoors without masks3

Emerging markets, especially those with serious outbreaks,
show high levels of vaccine acceptance
Developed
Vaccine acceptance by respondents (%)4 economy(comparison)
4
6
6
9
10
31
87

84

BrazilIndia

63

Adopters
Hesitant
Rejectors

Singapore

1. “How concerned would you be about doing any of the following today?” Includes % of people who were either concerned but would do or concerned and would not do. 2. “Which of the following best describes how much you are doingeach of the following activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic?” Net change in consumer's activity levels in May/August 2021 vs. before COVID-19, where “Net change” is the difference between the percentage of
respondents who are doing more of the activity and the percentage of respondents who are doing less of the activity. Excludes “Not applicable” data. 3. “Which of these are required for you to participate in any large (>15 people) indoor
gathering without masks?” 4. "Adopters" responded "Yes, I would be willing to take the vaccine," "Hesitant" responded "I am not sure, I may/may not take the vaccine," "Rejectors" responded "I would not be willing to take the vaccine."
Sources: BCG US COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (August 2021) (n = 4,820, unweighted, representative within –3 percentage points of the US census), BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment Research on Emerging-Market Consumers (July2021) (data from late May through early June 2021; sample ranged from 1,000-1,500 respondents per country, depending on population).

7

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1.2

As first-time users increase adoption of digital, sticky behaviors emerge

Many first-time users rapidly increasing
adoption of digital tools/services…

50%
In emerging markets indicated expanded usage of
online retailers compared with before pandemic1

51%

Reported growing usage of digital wallets
compared with before pandemic

52%

Indicated a rise in subscription to streaming
apps compared with before pandemic…similar to lasting e-commerce adoption after
SARS in China

SARS outbreak “came to represent the turning point
when the internet emerged as a truly mass medium in China”2

Many turned to Alibaba's online business to source
Chinese goods as countries issued travel warnings forbusinessmen traveling to China during SARS"3

Alibaba's B2B e-commerce business added 4,000 new
members and 9,000 listings each day, a 3-5x increase over
pre-SARS rate"3

1. Respondents were asked to indicate how much they are doing each of the activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic. 2. “Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built” by Duncan Clark – quoted by CNBC.
3. How SARS Led to the Birth of China E-Commerce, Jing Daily. Sources: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment Research on Emerging-Market Consumers (July 2021), Statista, Euromonitor Sept 2021

8

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1.3

Newly formed habitual behaviors during the pandemic support alasting move toward digital and in-home activities

Consumers have developed new
preferences and habits through the pandemic…

67%…which have resulted in a lasting shift for
certain activities and services+40%

Of US employees want a remote/hybrid work model
post-COVID-19

Net change in US consumers planning to increase1 theirordering of food delivery today vs pre-COVID-19

18%

+28%

Of US consumers moved locations since the start of
COVID-19, often seeking better quality of life and more space+21%

Net increase in US consumers who exercise athome with equipment vs. prepandemic

Net change in US consumers who reported an increase1
in spending on household products vs pre-COVID-19+27%

Net change in US respondents planning to increase
shopping online for non-essentials1,2

1. Net change in US consumers expressing that they are planning to increase spending vs decrease it. 2. Non-essentials include all items such as electronics, sports equipment, other classes of impulse purchases
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, Aug, 2021 (n = 4,558-4,820, unweighted, representative within ~3 percentage points of the US census)
Note: Question text: “Which of the following best describes how much you are doing each of the following activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic?" and "Think ahead to 2022, after the COVID-19 pandemic is fully
over. Using your best estimate, how much do you think you will do each of the following activities compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., 2019)?” Net = Percentage of respondents doing a little or a lot more minus percentage
doing a little or a lot less or have not resumed. (n varies by activity for May and August)9

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1.4

Increased demand for select digital services unlocked a shift in supplyside economics, which in turn can further support adoption

Adoption and stickiness improved scale and supply
economics, enhancing customer proposition…for example: resulting in expected sustained
increase in off-premises sales channels for foodE.g., Food service, home deliveries

Increase in adoption
and shift in behavior
1

Improved
customer
propositione.g., increased
options, convenience,
digital innovations

Total US food service spending ($B)

occasions to meet
1a Newe.g., convenience delivery1

2 Scale4e.g., increase in consumers
and food supplierse.g., via routeand rider optimization

9%

Home delivery

5%

Takeaway

19%

Drive-through

22%

3b

e.g., wage and regulatory
pressure, labor availability

Eat-in54%

Additional
propositions
to reduce cost

2015

16

16%

14%

19%

19%

21%

22%
26%

3a Cost pressure

3

Improved
economics

21%

50%

17

18

19

41%

40%
20

21E

22E

23E

24E

25E

e.g., dark kitchens2
1. Fast delivery of selection of convenience products (e.g., focusing on certain occasions, cooking-ingredients baskets, party baskets, etc.; sometimes leveraging micro-fulfilment centers, etc.);
2. Efficient production units without a storefront/opportunity to dine-in, which sell meals exclusively through delivery
Source: BCG analysis, Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research 2020

10

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1.5

COVID-19 has seen a rise in consumer consciousness on matters like sustainability

23%
Of consumers say they are buying more environmentally
sustainable products today compared with pre-COVID-19 pandemic1

28% of consumers stated they spend more on groceries
that are environmentally friendly, sustainable, and/or
ethical2
23% say they are buying more organic food today than
before the pandemic1
23% indicate that they spend more on home supplies
that are environmentally friendly or sustainable2

56% of consumers stated that the pandemic enabled
them to reflect on their impact on the planet360%
Of consumers believe that climate change should be highly prioritized3

21% are drinking more from reusable water bottles
than before the pandemic4
23% say they are using more reusable grocery bags4

1. Question text: “Which of the following best describes how much you are doing each of the following activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., 2019)?”; 2. Question text: “How has your spending changed for environmentallyfriendly, sustainable, and/or ethical products today compared with pre-COVID-19?”; 3. Question text: “You indicated that you changed your behavior/attitudes/beliefs about sustainability at some point during the COVID-19 pandemic. Please indicatewhy.”; 4. Question text: “Which of the following best describes how much you are doing each of the following activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., 2019)?”
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, May 2021. (N = 4,558, unweighted, representative within ~3% of the US census)
11

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1.6

Implication for leaders | Capitalize on shifting demand and win consumer
needs to outcompete laggards and reestablish new baselines

Implications for leaders

Deeply understandcustomer needs

Employ demandsensing

Drive innovation
based on new trends

Sources: BCG analysis and case experience.

1

Build data-driven understanding of drivers of consumer choice2

Size how customer needs, perceptions, and behaviors have evolved; monitor closely
for additional shifts

3

Embed understanding in defining "where to play" and differentiate to win

4

Develop fully automated and self-learning tools to forecast demand based on
many demand signals

5

Use more precise demand forecasts to improve planning for labor, inventory,
sourcing, etc.

6

Innovate offerings to capture new customer demand

7

Reimagine end-to-end customer journeys, centered around digital interactions

8

Develop new revenue streams, leveraging cross-industry business models

12

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.02In the news | Consumer recovery continues to be localized, with the pandemic
accelerating behaviors and adoption of certain activities

The Delta variant is keeping the US
economy from getting back to normal

September 21, 2021

Delta variant clouds developing
Asia's growth outlook

September 21, 2021

Delta variant set to slow but not
derail global economic recovery

September 23, 2021

Restauranteurs embrace ghost
kitchens in a COVID world

September 15, 2021

September 15, 2021

Southeast Asia has added 70 million
online shoppers since the beginning of
the pandemic

China slowdown worsens as COVID
outbreak exposes consumer weakness
and economy loses momentum

September 16. 2021

Retail sales increased slightly inAugust, highlighting inconsistency of
consumer spending as behavior swings
Sep 29, 2021

Rise in e-comm platforms resulting in
growth of digital audience
13

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September 20, 2021

As the pandemic persists, some product categories emerge as longterm winners, while others see a risk of lasting negative impact

Winners
Positive impact
during COVID-19

Losers

Negative impact
during COVID-19

Shorter-term shift(1-3 years)1

Longer-term shift(3+ years)1

Pandemic spike

Sustained growth

Examples: Home improvement*, grocery(e.g., cereals), health insurance

Examples: Pet supplies and services*,
in-home entertainment*,delivery/takeout, household cleaning

Temporary decline

Drawn-out recovery

Examples: Leisure travel*,
restaurants*, fashion and luxury*

Examples: Public transport,
business travel*, movie theaters** Category deep-dives on next few pages - categories exemplifying pronounced

shifts due to sticky adoption, habituation, and shifts in supply economics

Categories facing
temporary shifts
can take advantage
of change andthose seeing
sustained impacts
should resetassumptions andscale

Examples are illustrative andrecovery paths may differ by region

1. Approximate timelines to return to prepandemic consumption level.
Sources: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; sample ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population; BCG COVID-19 Consumer
Sentiment Survey, March 2020–August 2021 (n = 2,000–4,820, unweighted, representative within ~3 percentage points of the US census)

14

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Categories of impact

3

Home improvement: demand surged in 2020 as consumers "forward bought,"
followed by 2021 decline – market likely to recover by next year

Home improvement sales temporarily grew in 2020
amid lockdowns and uncertainty
As consumers spent more time indoors, they invested
resources in improving their homes
13% growth in US sales of home improvement products from 2019
to 2020
Select US retailers reported sales growth of 24% in 2020 vs. prepandemic
levels

Early in the pandemic, consumers "forward bought"
home improvement products
2021 expected sales are lower than 2020 as majority of consumers
completed large upcoming home projects during the pandemic

Growth rate to return to pre-COVID-19 trend in the longrun
93% of consumers expect to increase or maintain current levels
of involvement in home improvement projects
1. Annual data and projections; Source: Statista, State of Retail Survey 2021: How Consumers Are Shopping in the “New Normal"

Category set to decline in the short term,
followed by pre-COVID-19 growthtrajectory
Home improvement market, US ($B1)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2016

17

18

19

20

21E

22E

23E

24E

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3.1

Pet supplies and services: category emerged as a winner throughthe pandemic, with sustained postpandemic growth expected

Increased adoption of pets and growth of e-commerce
sales provide strong outlook for category
Consumers sought companionship as they spent
more time at home
Adoption rates at animal shelters jumped as much as 40% in2020 over the previous year1>10% of consumers adopted pets during COVID-19, and the
majority of adoptions were unplanned2

Pet supplies and services expected
to continue growth postpandemic
US pet and pet products ($B)4
90
85
80

Large pet-owner community drove up demandfor pet supplies and services

75

19% of consumers spend more now on pet supplies and services vs.
prepandemic and 20% expect to spend more post-COVID-19

70

Postpandemic, continued growth of e-commerce sales andofferings of pet supplies and services expected
46% rise in sales of a US pet retailer's online platform3

65
60
2016

17

18

19

20

1. Reuters: US pet adoption still strong as cats, dogs melt stress. 2. Question text: "Did you purchase/adopt any animals as pets (dog, cat, etc.) between March 2020 and today?" and "Thinking about the last pet you
purchased/adopted, was this decision planned before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020)?" 3. Cision PR Newswire: Insights on Pet Care E-Commerce Global Market; 4. Monthly data
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, May 20-23 and Aug 6-8, 2021 (n = 4,558-4,820, unweighted, representative within ~3 percentage points of the US census). Note: Question text: “Think ahead to 2022, after the
COVID-19 pandemic is fully over. How do you expect your spending to change compared with your spending before the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., 2019)?” Net = Percentage of respondents spending a little or a lot more minus
percentage spending a little or a lot less. (n varies by activity for May and August; Recovery path: BEA, NBER, BCG Center for Macroeconomics

21E

16

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3.2

Luxury: industry's adaptation to consumer preferences and customer
spending of accumulated wealth likely to lead to a quick recovery

Luxury adapted to the shift globally,
with innovative sales channels and models

Wealth accumulation in the US and China
likely to help luxury rebound in 2022

COVID-19 accelerated the channel-mix shift to online

Global luxury market (personal and experiential), €B2~85% of journeys to start online by 2023e (vs ~60% pre-COVID-19)

1,500

35-50% growth seen by digital-native multibrand platforms1

New purchase channels leveraging COVID-19 digital
uptake1,000

18% of luxury consumers bought a luxury item that they saw in virtual
online games
32% made a purchase during or immediately after an online
livestream shopping session

Although in early stages, new revenue models are emerging
18% of consumers interested in renting luxury items

500

0
2016

17

18

19

20

21E

22E

23E

24E

25E

25% of consumers willing to buy secondhand luxury goods

1. One year to Jan 2021; 2. Annual data
Source: BCG Altagamma 2021 - True-Luxury Global Consumer Insights; Second Measure [Bloomberg]
syndicated transaction data; Ascential Edge Saks retail data; BCG analysis

17

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3.3

Restaurants: pent-up demand and lifting of restrictions as lockdowns ease willallow for a rebound to pre-COVID-19 levels in a few years

Pent-up consumer demand and lifting of restrictions
provide a positive outlook for the restaurant industry
Demand likely to increase in the near term as the
pandemic recedes and restrictions ease
25% of consumers would go out to eat much more frequently
post-COVID-19 vaccine
A state with low restriction index1 (RCI) of ~0.4 recorded 25%
increase in restaurant sales compared with 2019 vs state with RCI of
1.0 recorded dip of 25% in sales
Dining in (especially casual dining) has shown recent momentum
since restrictions eased

Quick recovery (by end of 2022 or 2023) topre-COVID-19 levels expected for theindustry
US restaurant industry ($B)2
350
300
250
200
150

Restaurants are adapting during the pandemic
Tracking foot-traffic to optimize their open hours to best serve demand
Increasing consolidation including among franchisees
Driving demand with innovative promotions

100
50
2016

1. Restriction Index (RCI) records the strictness of "lockdown style" policies that primarily restrict people's behavior; 2. Monthly data dining in
Source: RCI data as of April 2021, SecondMeasure, CDC, US Census; MillerPulse, UBS Evidence LAB, Recovery path: BEA, NBER, BCG Center for Macroeconomics

17

18

19

20

21E

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3.4

Travel: expect high near-term demand in leisure travelwith potential structural changes in business travel
Likely ~10-20% structural decline of business travel driven
by focus on flexibility, cost, and sustainability
66% of employees in favor of flexibility to work from anywhere

Quick recovery of leisure travel to compensate
for structural decline of business travel

84% of organizations plan to spend less on travel postpandemic1
50% of companies placed higher priority on travel sustainability
and reducing emission in the past 12 months

US airline transport market ($B)4

Positive trends (e.g., collocation for training, affiliation, retention,
selling) and new airline practices (e.g., travel risk management forcorporates, carbon offset vs SAF) unlikely to make up for decline

120

Pent-up demand, desire to treat oneself, and accumulated
wealth are fueling quick recovery of leisure travel
35% consumers expect to spend more on leisure travel after COVID-19
60% to 69%2 "can't wait to start traveling again"3
US domestic leisure volumes2 were >100% of 2019 - with party sizes
increasing, fare values rising, and booking curves recovering
Leisure travel could play an important role in helping reset attitudes
and habits, which could partly support business travel's drawn-out
recovery – but company policies and decision making remain critical

140

100
80
60
40
20
0
2016

17

18

19

20

1. Bloomberg survey of 45 large companies in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, Sept 2021; 2. Forward ticketing; 3. This range reflects the variation in percentages among France, Italy, the UK, and the US. 4. Monthly data
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, May 20–23 and August 6–8, 2021 (n = 4,558–4,820, unweighted, representative within ~3 percentage points of the US census), Bloomberg 2021, Skift, BCG analyses

21E

19

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3.5

Entertainment: lasting shift to online streaming and gaming
likely to cause a drawn-out recovery path for movie theaters

Movie theaters suffered as lockdowns were imposed
and alternative entertainment sources grew

Demand stagnating and switch of content
supply to streaming likely to cause a structural
declineConsumers increasingly spent more time at home

US movie theater market ($B)2+29% of US consumers spend more on in-home entertainmentvs. before pandemic

20

Consumer preference for streaming
and video games grew

15

+52% of US consumers indicated increase in subscription
to streaming apps compared with before pandemic

10

4 out of 5 US consumers played a video game in the past
six months1; in China gaming rose by 37% in the past year
5

Movie theaters faced additional supply pressures
Popular streaming service debuted several hit movies
exclusively on its online platform

0
2016

17

1. BCG-Altagamma true-luxury global consumer insight survey Mar/Apr 21 (12K respondents in 12 countries), expert interviews; 2. Monthly data
Note: Question text: “Which of the following best describes how much you are doing each of the following activities today compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic?"
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, May 20-23 and Aug 6-8, 2021 (n = 4,558-4,820, unweighted, representative within ~3 percentage points of the US census),
Recovery path: BEA, NBER, BCG Center for Macroeconomics

18

19

20

21E

20

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3.6

BCG Executive
Perspectives

Consumer sentiments and other key trends

AGENDA

Outlook for select categories

Implications for leaders

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

21

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

HOW COVID-19 CHANGED THE
CONSUMER

Summary dashboard
As of 1 October 2021

Epidemic Progression

Consumer Activity

Business Impact

Global epidemic snapshot

Mobility

Stock market performance

234M

18.4M

4.8M

6.2B

# of
cases

# of
active cases1# offatalities

Vaccine doses
administered

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Americas

1.0x

0.9x

1.4x

0.9x

Europe

0.6x

2.5x

1.1x

1.0x

Asia3

0.4x

1.3x

1.3x

0.7x

Economic Impact
IMF4 (Jul '21)

GDP forecasts (YoY%)
2021
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

0 2

4 6
4.6%

Banks58 10 12 14 16 18 20

7.0%
2.8%
8.1%
9.5%

Mobility6(month vs.
Jan '20)

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking7,8 (YoY)

Jun

Jul

Aug

US

-11%

-11%

-11%

Europe

-7%

--6%

Japan

-11%

-11%

02 Jan '20 vs Month end

Jun

Jul

Aug

S&P500

32%

35%

39%

-7%

FTSE100

-7%

-8%

-6%

--15%

CHN SSE

16%

10%

15%

Volatility Index (S&P500)13

1.3x

1.5x

1.3x

US

37%

22%

France

33%

12%

China

34%

23%

US

62

63

61

Germany

65

66

63

China

51

50

50

Steel production (YoY)16

25%

17%

12%

US

103%

131%

103%

UK

217%

91%

101%

China

40%

35%

-31%

Sales
Retailgoods sales9(excl. auto &
fuel, YoY)

US

17%

13%

Europe105%4%China11

12%

9%

3%

Passenger
vehiclesales12(YoY)

US

17%

5%

-17%

Germany

24%

-25%

-23%

China

-14%

-10%

-15%

International trade
Trade value14(YoY)

Industrial production
Purchasing
manager’s
index15(base = 50)

1. Total cases less deaths and recovery; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. IMF Jul 2021 forecast; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank ofAmerica; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to 20 Sep 2021; For India's GDP forecast, World Bank's 2020 forecast from 08 June provides the upper bound of the forecast range; 6. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit, retail and recreation, and grocery and pharmacy
and compared with a baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 7. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared with same period last year; 8. Domestic tickets by ticketing; 9. Retail goods sales include online and offline sales and comprise food and beverages, apparel,cosmetics and personal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel and food services; 10. Europe includes 27 countries currently in EU; 11. For China, total retail sales displayed (including automobiles and petroleum and related products). 12. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales datafor over same month in previous year; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 13. Underlying data is from Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors'
sentiments; 14. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared with previous year period; EU trade values between EU and all outside countries 15. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 16. Datacorresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Sources: JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, WHO, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Google Mobility, US Census Bureau, Eurostat, PRC National Bureau of Statistics, ACEA actuals, Marklines, ARC ticketing data, STR, Statista, CBOE, OECD, BEA, GACC (customs) China, ONS, BCG.

22

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To be updated in forthcoming editions

Delta variant peaks are easing as vaccination rates increase globally
Epidemic Progression

Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)
1,000,000

Delta’s spread drove peaks,
but rising vaccination rates
helped reduce new cases
in September

800,000

600,000

South
America
North
America

400,000

Asia1
AfricaSouth America
North
North America
America
Africa200,000

0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month-onmonth growthof new cases2

Key observations

234M# of confirmed cases

18.4M# of active cases

Europe215% 15% 50% 60% 10% 10% 40% 45% 10% 0% -35% 20% 60% -15% -40% 30% 25% -20%

1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean). 2. Calculated monthly as average of daily cases comparedwith previous month’s daily cases and rounded to nearest 5%. Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; Worldometer; press search; BCG.

4.8M
# of fatalities

23

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

As of 29 Sep 2021

Despite progress on vaccination across the world, caution required astransmissible Delta variant becomes dominant
As of 20 Sep 2021

Time series view of variant frequency

100
80
60

20A

20B

21A (Delta)

40

Sept-21Aug-21

Jul-21

Jun-21

May-21

Apr-21

Mar-21

Feb-21

Jan-21

Dec-200Nov-202020H (Beta, V2)

20J (Gamma V3)

21B (Kappa)

21D (Eta)

21F (Iota)

21H

19B

20C

20D

20G

20I (Alpha, V1)

21A (Delta)

21C (Epsilon)

21E (Theta)

21G (Lambda)

19A

20A

20B

20E (EU1)

20F

Sources: JAMA, Nextstrain, Financial Times, Virological; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; cov-lineages.org

24

Copyright©©2021
2021bybyBoston
BostonConsulting
ConsultingGroup.
Group.All
Allrights
rightsreserved.
reserved.BCG
BCGExecutive
ExecutivePerspectives
Perspectivesupdated
updated5 30
April 2021
Copyright
October
2021Version
Version2.0
2.0

Delta is 90%+ of sequenced samples

Many large economies expected to continue recovery
and reach 2019 GDP levels between 2021 and 2022
Economic Impact

As of 29 Sep 2021

GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (base: 100)
US

Europe

China

121.1

112.6
111.0
110.6

109.7

108

113.5
110.1

108.5

108.3
107.4

107.9
105.1

104

103.9
103.3
103.1

100

103.1

102.3

102.0
101.6
100.1

101.6

99.5

98.4
98.1
98.0
97.0

97.9
97.8
97.3
96.6

96.5

96

103.8

103.2
101.5
100.4
99.4

100.9
100.6
98.0

95.3

93.5

92
2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

92.7

2021

100-104%

97-98%

2019 GDP levels (index)

Forecast IMF (Jul 2021)

2022

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

109-113%
Forecast World Bank (Jun 2, 2021)

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

97-98%

2021

2022

99-105%

Forecast range from leading banks2

1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year. 2. Range from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit
Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC. Note: As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to 20 Sep 2021; YoY forecasted 2020 values are estimated actual GDP. Sources: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG.

25

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

115.4

112

2021 forecast
vs. 2019

India1

117.0

116

88

Japan

Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; public transit andworkplace mobility remains lower in most countries
Economic Impact

As of 29 Sep 2021

Workplace1, public transit2, and retail and recreation3 mobility compared with baseline of January 2020 to February 2020

Feb
20

Germany

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

Feb
20

May
20

Australia

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

Italy

Feb
20

Workplace mobility
Retail and recreation mobility

Lockdown easing4
Lockdown started4

Feb
20

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

South Korea

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

SwedenPublic transit mobility

Feb
20

May
20

Feb
20

Japan

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

Feb
20

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations. 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks,
museums, libraries, and cinemas. 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates for larger lockdowns. Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks during
Feb 15 2020–Feb 28 2021). Sources: Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.” https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/. Accessed: 01 Mar 2020; press search; BCG.

26

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

USManufacturing PMI global recovery indicates positive momentum
with some signs of a slowdown in recent months
Economic Impact

As of 29 Sep 2021

Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis
Neutrallevel = 50

1 2

17 16 14 15 16 13

Neutrallevel = 50

0 0

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

1

Jan

July

Feb

Dec

Oct

Nov

Sep

Aug

Jun

July

5 5 5 4 4 3

Jul

Aug

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Jul

Jun

Apr

Oct

-3 -2 0Japan
4 3 2 3 3
1 3

0

1. Lockdown dates are pertaining only to Hubei province. Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding,staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive sentiment, and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment. Sources: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan
Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; EIKON.

Aug

Jun

July

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Dec

Nov

Oct

Jan

-0
.2

-2 -1 -1

SepJul

-8 -10
-12

-5 -3
Aug

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Neutrallevel = 50

Jun

10

-2
Jun

Apr

May

-13 -1015 13 12 14 19 16 15 15Apr

6 9 10
2 4

May

Neutrallevel = 50

Lockdown easing

May

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

SwedenLockdown started

1 1 1

1

1 3 3 3-8 -9 -7

-19

>0

Apr

Neutrallevel = 50

Sep

12 12 10 11Aug

7 10 112 3 3 4 2 3 5-5 -3-14 to 021South Korea

Neutrallevel = 50

-29 to -15

May

Mar

Jul

Aug

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Jan

Feb

Dec

Nov

Italy

≤ -30

2 2

2 1
1 1 1 1 1

-5
Oct

Apr

May

Jul

Aug

Jun

Apr

May

Feb

Mar

Jan

Dec

Oct

Nov

Sep

Jul

Aug

-16 -13
Jun

Apr

May

-14 -1011
6 8 8 8 7

Sep

0

Jul

13 11

Aug

11 12 127 7 9 9 91 3 3 3Jun

Neutrallevel = 50

27

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

China1

Germany

USPassenger vehicle sales had started to return to prepandemic levels
in some markets but dropped again as supply constraints continue
Economic Impact

As of 29 Sep 2021

2021 monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, % change vs. same month in 2019
Germany

China2
10%

14%

Italy

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

-7%

Aug

Jul

Jun

3%
-1%
-9%
Jul

Jun

May

Apr

-8%

Aug

-4%
Mar

Aug

Jul

Feb

-7%

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

7%

1%

-30% -37%
Jun

May

-4%
-11%

Jan

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr
Apr

-31% -25%
Mar

Feb

Lockdown easing

> 0%

Jan

Lockdown started-14% to 0%

-3%

9%

5%
-3%

Japan

63%

-2%

2%

6%

-25% -24%-26

8%-29% to -15%

-6%

-12%

-15%

Jan

Sweden

-11%

Mar

Feb

Jan

-18% -18%≤ -30%-4%

South Korea3
2%

-2%

-5%

Mar

Jan

-38%
Aug

-29%

-31%

Feb

-16%

Jul

-36%

-26%

Jun

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

-34%

-28%

May

-15%

-7%

Apr

-14%

Mar

0%

-1%

Feb

-5%

Jan

-2%

8%

2%

1. Passenger vehicle sales include data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, mini trucks, light trucks, and vans. 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high-tiercities, and extended NEV subsidies. 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models, and theincreased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into “camping cars.”
Sources: Marklines; BCG.

28

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

USRetail store sales in China and US have rebounded across
categories; apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries
Economic Impact

As of 29 Sep 2021

Food and beverage stores

Personal care and cosmetics stores

Jan '21 Feb '21 Mar '21 Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

US

14%

16%

14%

15%

16%

16%

14%

US

5%

3%

12%

14%

15%

14%

14%

UK

7%

9%

10%

10%

4%

8%

6%

UK2

-47%

-30%

-26%

-6%

-7%

-7%

-11%

Spain

3%

1%

0%

0%

-3%

-1%

0%

Spain

-4%

-1%

0%

1%

-1%

2%

1%

Sweden

3%

4%

4%

0%

5%

6%

4%

Sweden

0%

7%

12%

4%

10%

13%

10%

France

7%

6%

10%

8%

8%

5%

7%

France

9%

6%

11%

7%

10%

13%

20%

23%

20%

18%

23%

15%

China1

31%

30%

36%

43%

18%

-3%

-2%

0%

1%

2%

Japan

45%

42%

38%

46%

42%

Jan '21 Feb '21 Mar '21 Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

China1

14%

Japan

-2%

-1%

Apparel stores3

Jan '21 Feb '21 Mar '21 Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

24%
44%

45%

Jul '21

Home appliance stores4

Jan '21 Feb '21 Mar '21 Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

US

-3%

-8%

12%

10%

13%

18%

14%

US

-1%

-6%

10%

13%

8%

14%

11%

UK

-46%

-52%

-44%

-7%

-6%

-8%

-10%

UK

-12%

13%

-9%

30%

30%

19%

12%

Spain

-36%

-35%

-21%

-23%

-21%

-14%

-19%

Spain

-4%

-1%

9%

7%

17%

9%

8%

Sweden

-24%

-22%

-19%

-22%

-10%

-11%

-10%

Sweden

21%

23%

26%

18%

27%

23%

19%

France

-25%

-21%

-24%

-63%

-15%

-4%

-9%

France

15%

17%

20%

4%

11%

22%

11%

4%

3%

8%

8%

1%

China1

-5%

-7%

3%

15%

4%

-19%

-30%

-29%

-23%

-22%

Japan

1%

5%

11%

1%

11%

-3%

China1Japan≤ -30%-24%-26%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

-5%
19%

17%

> 0%

1. For China, Jan and Feb 2021 are reported together due to national holidays; food and beverages category includes only food and grains; 2. UK data set switched over from
Eurostat to Office for National Statistics following Brexit. 3. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc. 4. Includes audio video and home appliances stores. Note: For US, share in
retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care and cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25%, and building material andgardening equipment ~13%. Sector classification and mix may be different across countries.
Sources: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Office for National Statistics United Kingdom; Ministry of Economy Japan.

China and US have seen
strong rebounds in almost
all categories, even above
2019 levels
Retail store sales recovery
driven by food and beverage
across almost all countries.
Home appliance also seeing
strong growth across countries
Apparel category continues
to see decline compared with2019, except for US and China
Personal care sales had
mixed development acrosscountries but mostly returned
to prepandemic levels
29

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

Retail store sales breakdown by category, % change vs. same month in 2019

Stock markets continue to have an optimistic outlook:
20 out of 24 sectors currently above precrisis TSR levels

Based on top S&P
Global 1200 companies

As of 30 Sept 2021

Economic Impact
Companies with default probability >15%2
21 Feb 2020

30 Sep 2021

Semiconductor

70%

0%

0%

Tech hardware

38%

0%

0%

Materials

36%

5%

0%

Retailing

34%

0%

6%

Media

33%

0%

0%

Auto

29%

0%

0%

Capital Goods

26%

2%

2%

Financials

25%

0%

0%

Durable Goods

23%

0%

0%

Food/Staples Retail

23%

0%

0%

Health Equipment

22%

0%

0%

Software

20%

0%

0%

Professional Services

16%

0%

0%

Banks

12%

0%

0%

Insurance

8%

0%

0%

Pharma5%

0%

5%

Food and Beverage

4%

0%

0%

Telecom

2%

0%

4%

Household Products

1%

0%

0%

Energy0%

3%6%

Hospitality

-1%

8%

15%

Real Estate

-1%

0%

0%

Utilities

-7%

0%

0%

Transport

-9%

0%

24%

1. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 30 Sept 2021;
2. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median; Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; sectors are based on GICS definitions; Sources: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

30

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 5 October 2021 Version 2.0

TSR1
21 Feb 2020–
30 Sep 2021

The Consumer
Sentiment Series(US, latest from
August 2021)

CEOs Need a
Customer Experience
Revolution—Not an
Evolution

The Surprising
Resilience of EmergingMarket Consumers

Understanding the
Global Price-Sensitive
Consumer

How the Pandemic
Did—and Didn’t—
Change IndianConsumers

A Pricing Playbook
for CPG Companies
Amid Inflationary
Pressure

Sustainability Matters
Now More Than Ever
for Consumer
Companies

Don’t Let Channel
Conflicts Limit ECommerce Sales

Demystifying Global
Consumer Choice

Click here to read past editions of Executive Perspectives
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Additional perspectives on consumer sentiment, experience and insights

Disclaimer

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