Executive
Perspectives

Omicron | What We Know,
What We Don’t Know,
Scenarios, and Implications
December 2021

OMICRON A CAUSE OF CONCERN, ON TOP OF DELTA SURGE IN EUROPE

BCG Executive
Perspectives
IN
IN THISTHIS DOCUMENT
DOCUMENT

Omicron, which seems to have emerged from an immunocompromised host, has astaggering number of mutations. Many of these mutations suggest the ability to reduce
antibody efficacy, and early data on reinfection rates appear to be confirming this. It is
rapidly outcompeting Delta in South Africa and is now present in all corners of the globe.
Omicron is emerging at a time when we see Delta surging in Europe, which is likely to havesevere impact, especially among unvaccinated individuals. Response to the surge is varied
and reinforces the critical importance of boosters in saving lives.

LIMITED CONCLUSIONS SO FAR, BUT WE CAN TAKE ACTION ALREADY
The best-case scenario is that Omicron is not severe and even supplants Delta withsomething milder, but the worst case is that Omicron is both more transmissible and more
deadly than Delta. We already believe it is capable of driving more reinfections.
We must act now while we wait for more information. Strengthening booster programs will
help raise antibody levels. Vulnerable communities should be prioritized – with vaccines,
diagnostics, and antiviral treatments ready for use – and leaders should continue to focus on
the unvaccinated. Sensible containment measures may slow the spread, while leaders
support acceleration and deployment of testing, vaccines, and treatments, including the newgeneration of antivirals, especially in less developed countries.
Sources: BCG analysis and case experience2

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

Vaccine inequity has persisted throughout 2021 – only 7.5% of Africa's population has been
double-vaccinated (versus 44% globally and 90%+ for some developed countries). In areas
with low vaccination rates and high numbers of immunocompromised people (e.g., subSaharan Africa), the opportunity for viral mutation is highest.

BCG Executive
Perspectives

Areas of concern: Omicron and Delta surge in Europe

AGENDA

Implications for leaders and areas to watch

Questions and scenarios on Omicron

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
COVID-19 economic and business impact

3

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

OMICRON | WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE DON’T

Number ofmutations
acrossprevious
variant
samples

Omicron represents large genetic shift;significantly higher number of mutations

25

Spike protein (S1) mutations

Number ofmutations
across
Omicronsamples~50 mutations in Omicron alone…
…far more than we have seen in othervariants

20

15

Some of these associated withincreased transmissibility andantibody resistance`

Earlier variants show incremental
rise in mutations over time

10

Emerging real-world evidence suggests
much higher Omicron reinfection
risk vs. Delta

502020-Mar

2020-Jun

2020-Sep

2020-Dec

2021-Mar2021-Jun

2021-Sep

Sources: Nextstrain (Genomic epidemiology of Omicron Variant), MedRxiv preprint study titled "Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection
associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa (2021-1-01)"

Vaccines still our best defense but
no scientific evidence yet on theireffectiveness versus Omicron4

Copyright© 2021
by BostonConsulting
Group. All
rights reserved.
Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0
Copyright© 2021
by BostonConsulting
Group.
All rightsBCG
reserved.

Why Omicron is a cause of concern | Staggering number of mutations,some of which suggest an ability to neutralize protections

Why Omicron is a cause of concern | Rapidly outcompeting Delta in South
Africa and now present in all corners of the globe
In South Africa, Omicron now accounts for ~60%1 of cases…

…and is already in 50+ countries globally

Frequency of Omicron cases jumped from <1% in September to ~60% by
end of November

Community transmission detected in at least 20 countries

100%

US reported its first case on December 1 in California

2Frequency of cases by variant type in South Africa
21I (Delta)

20H (Beta, V2)

50%
20H (Beta, V2)

0%

20C

20B
Dec
20

21J (Delta)

Jan
21

Feb
21

Mar
21

Apr
21

Omicron
May
21

Jun
21

Jul
21

20H (Beta, V2)

21I (Delta)

21K (Omicron)

20B

21A (Delta)

21J (Delta)

20C

20D

Aug
21

Sep
21

Oct
21

Nov
21

What remains to be determined: Will Omicron outcompete
Delta as it emerges in other locations?
`
1. Precise frequency numbers subject to change during early detection periods (next 1-2 weeks). 2. Frequencies normalized to 100% at each time point for 360 out of a total of 3,670 tips.
Sources: Nextstrain (Genomic epidemiology of Omicron Variant), Mint, New York Times Omicron Tracker

5

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by BostonConsulting
Group. All
rights reserved.
Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0
Copyright© 2021
by BostonConsulting
Group.
All rightsBCG
reserved.

As of 6 Dec 2021

Delta remains a threat | Severe variant remains dominant, with Europe
experiencing a Delta surge as it approaches winterDelta surging in Europe over the past month

Delta twice as severe for unvaccinated over age 50

Daily new cases, '000 (7-day rolling average)
1,000

Estimated infection hospitalization rate2
Delta dominant sinceJuly, currently 90%+ ofsequenced samples

25%

800

20%

600
Africa400

North
America

15%

North America
Africa10%

Delta unvaccinated

20.0%

Delta vaccinatedEurope

5%

2.5%

Jan
21

Mar
21

May
21

Jul
21

Sep
21

Nov
21

18-49

2.5%

0.7%

0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Nov
20

9.7%

~2x
5.7%

200
0

Asia1North
AmericaSouth
America~2xOriginal strain - unvaccinated

50-64

65+

1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean). 2. Estimate based on composite of UK hospitalization rates and observed vaccine efficacy data across multiple US states.
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; Worldometer; press search; BCG analysis of UK household infection surveillance & hospitalization, CDC, and state-specific vaccine efficacy (IL, other) datasets

6

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

As of 6 Dec 2021

Delta response varies across Europe, with Austria imposing lockdowns,
Netherlands rolling out boosters, and UK reducing booster waiting time
As of 6 Dec 2021

7-day rolling average of daily new
7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19
COVID-19 cases per million people1 hospitalizations per million people2
300
1,600

Austria

Key actions countries are taking

Vaccination rates3
26%

42%

4% 72%First country to introduce lockdown this winter(currently 22 Nov – 11 Dec) – seeing case reduction
Compulsory vaccination from Feb 2022

1,200High vaccination rate but limited booster uptake

200

Netherlands TBD

73%

3% 76%

800

Booster campaign only begun in mid-November
Some restrictions imposed (e.g. nonessential shops
closed after 5pm, hospitality capacity limits)
High vaccination rate with significant booster uptake

100

UnitedKingdom

400

30%

39%

7% 76%

Very few social measures in place (masks required)
Recently recommended boosters 3 months after
second dose, open for all adults

First, second, and booster dose0

Oct 1stNov 1stFirst and second dose only0
Dec 1stOct 1stNov 1stDec 1stFirst dose only

1. Data until 5th December 2021; 2. Data until 1st Dec 2021 due to lack of data for Austria and the Netherlands thereafter 3. As a % of total population – Austria (December 5, 2021), Netherlands (November 28, 2021), UK (December 4, 2021)
Source: Our World in Data, John Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 Data

7

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

Cases and hospitalizations spiking in Austria and Netherlands

Data shows clear benefit of booster program for all ages
Findings from Israel

7-day average of new daily severe cases per 100K, 2021

60+

Years old

0-59
Years old

25
20
15
10
5
0
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0

60+ adults eligible
for booster

Risk of severe outcomes between
boosted and fully vaccinated almost
as great as between vaccinated andunvaccinated
Boosters reduce risk by ~10x1 forages 60+ vs. a 1- or 2-dose vaccine
regimen12+ adults eligible
for booster

15th
Aug
Unvaccinated

Boosted individuals ages 0-59 face
~10x reduced risk compared toindividuals 60+ with booster1
1st
Sept

15th
Sept

Vaccinated(1-or-2 dose regimen)

1st
Oct

15th
Oct

Received booster

Definition of fully vaccinated will
likely evolve to include boosters,
especially as virus continues tomutate – critical to enable access

During September 15- October 15 time period; Delta variant accounted for 98% of Israeli cases over this timeframe.
1. New daily severe cases are patients in severe condition who weren't in this condition in the previous day; Boosters reflect people who got 3rd dose and 7-days have passed since receiving the 3rd dose; Vax no boosters reflect people who received 3 doses
but 7 days haven't passed since 3rd dose, or people received 2 doses and 7 days have passed since 2nd dose, or people who had COVID-19 and received at least 1-dose and 7 days have passed since the dose; Non-vax are people who didn't receive any
shot.
Source: Israel Ministry of Health's public dashboard

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

As of 18 Oct 2021

The big questions with Omicron

B
C

Almost certain to have some loss in infection protection, but we don't know extent
Unknown how protection against infections or severe cases will vary by vaccine
Expectation that vaccines will continue to protect well against severe cases
New antivirals from Pfizer and Merck likely to remain effective
Since October, Omicron has gone from <1% to ~60% of cases in South Africa

Will this variant outcompete Delta?
If so, is this due to transmissibilityor breakthrough infections?

Is it more severe?

Source: Medrxiv, Nextstrain, press releases, BCG analysis

Will take a few weeks to sequence variants in more countries and inform how
widespread it is
Early indications suggest Omicron is highly transmissible and has a substantiallyhigher reinfection risk than seen with Delta

No clear view – need to wait for firm data rather than anecdotal evidence
to draw conclusions
It took time to understand that Delta is 2x as severe for unvaccinatedindividuals >50
9Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

A

How well will our vaccines andantivirals work against this variant
to prevent infections, transmission,or severe outcomes?

BULL

Diseaserisk

Immunity
benefits

Societal
impactBASE

BEAR

Omicron supplants Delta with a milder
virus that builds population immunity

Mild to moderate setback but no major
deviations necessary in response

Omicron is "Delta squared" – moretransmissible and lethal

Milder virus outcomes, even among
most vulnerable (despite hightransmission)

Similar disease & transmission risk
as Delta; critical to protect the mostvulnerable

Significantly more severe
and transmissible than Delta

Current vaccines confer significant
protection; boosters less criticalgoing forward

Vaccines still offer protection
against severe outcomes; boosters
even more vital

Variant evades vaccines andrecovered immunity, requiring new
formulations

Improved conditions; progressive
easing of restrictions with little sign ofrecurrence

Mostly status quo with some more
restrictions (e.g., mask and testingmandates)

Increased restrictions required
to maintain health system capacity;
significant economic drag possible

Current estimate of most likely outcome (Dec. 6)

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

Several scenarios for how Omicron could unfold in the coming months

Endemic COVID-19: New variants will continue to appear over time. Delta variant likely to be a prominent variant for 7-9 months based on current patterns.
10Looking ahead | The data we receive over the next few weeks will tell us which
scenarios are most likely
As of 27 Nov 2021

Neutralization assays1 will provide first real data on
Omicron's ability to resist immunity
Likely known in coming days

Early picture in Gauteng Province, South Africa:
Cases outpacing, hospitalizations on trend
Daily cases (7-day average)
12,000Transmissibility
and reinfection

Early data suggests that Omicron outcompetes Delta andhas substantially higher reinfection levels
Will know more as countries increasingly report Omicron
seroprevalence levels, likely within the next week
More time required to understand transmission rates
among vaccinated

9,000
6,000
3,000
0

0
Days

30

60

90

120

90

120

Weekly hospital admissions

8,000

Severity

Hospitalization & fatality data always lags cases 2-4 weeks

6,000

Additionally, will take time to de-average cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths by age and vaccination status(including vaccine type, timing, and number of doses)

4,000

If leaders provide this data proactively, we can start toget a good understanding within the next month;if not, it could take much longer

2,000
0

0
Days
First wave

30

60
Omicron wave

Beta wave

1. Assay detects antibody that is capable of inhibiting virus replication - specific to measure COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies without cross reacting with patient specimens with other viral, bacterial, or parasitic infections
Sources: FT, South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases, BCG analyses and experience

Delta wave
11

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

Vaccine efficacy

1

Focus on vaccinations, our best weapon | Make boosters a priority for the vaccinated and continue to focus on
the unvaccinated – across both communities and individual organizations.

2

Containment may slow the spread | Travel restrictions & quarantines may buy some time in the near-term, but arobust surveillance system is needed (using the PCR tests that can identify Omicron). Leverage epinomically1
optimized public health measures (e.g., masks, testing, contact tracing) to minimize harm.

3

Protect the vulnerable | Ensure measures in place to keep the virus out of our most vulnerable settings (e.g.,long-term care facilities). Consider vaccine mandates for the most vulnerable.

4

Support South Africa | Any travel restrictions in South Africa and elsewhere must be equitable and based on
science, not purchasing power5

Accelerate vaccines and treatments | Governments must do everything possible to accelerate the development of
new vaccines, boosters, and antiviral drugs – and need to make sure these are accessible in all communities. New
formulations are probably ~100 days away; need to be prepared to scale manufacturing and distribution globally.

1. An epinomic strategy is one that integrates epidemiological and socioeconomic imperatives. Sources: BCG analysis and case experience.

12

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Implications for leaders'No regrets' actions to take while we wait for answers

BCG Executive
Perspectives

Areas of concern: Omicron and Delta surge in Europe

AGENDA

Implications for leaders and areas to watch

Questions and scenarios on Omicron

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
COVID-19 economic and business impact

13

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

OMICRON | WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE DON’T

Summary dashboard
As of 29 Nov 2021

Epidemic Progression

Consumer Activity

Business Impact

Global epidemic snapshot

Mobility

Stock market performance

262M
# of
cases

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

20.2M

5.2M

# of
active cases1# offatalities

7.9B

Vaccine doses
administered

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Americas

0.9x

1.4x

0.9x

0.6x

Europe

2.5x

1.1x

1.0x

1.4x

Asia3

1.3x

1.3x

0.7x

0.6x

Economic Impact
IMF4 (Oct'21)

GDP forecasts (YoY%)
2021
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

0 2

4 6
5.0%

Banks58 10 12 14 16 18 20

6.0%
2.4%
8%
9.5%

Mobility6(month vs.
Jan '20)

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking7,8 (YoY)

Aug

Sep

Oct

US

-11%

-12%

-11%

Europe

-7%

-2%

Japan

--15%

-14%

02 Jan '20 vs month end

Aug

Sep

Oct

S&P500

39%

32%

41%

-5%

FTSE100

-6%

-7%

-5%

-8%

CHN SSE

15%

16%

15%

Volatility Index (S&P500)13

1.3x

1.9x

1.3x

US

23%

18%

France

22%

China

29%

23%

US

61

61

58

Germany

63

58

58

China

50

50

49

Steel production (YoY)16

-3%

-9%

-11%

US

103%

72%

81%

UK

101%

116%

133%

China

-32

-9%

-9%

Sales
Retailgoods sales9(excl. auto &
fuel, YoY)

US

15%

13%

Europe102%3%China11

1%

7%

6%

Passenger
vehicle sales12
(YoY)

US

-17%

-25%

-23%

Germany

-23%

-26%

-35%

China

-15%

-17%

-6%

International trade
Trade value14(YoY)

Industrial production
Purchasing
manager’s
index15(base = 50)

1. Total cases less deaths and recovery; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. IMF Oct 2021 forecast; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank ofAmerica; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated Sep and Oct 2021; 6. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit, retail and recreation, and grocery and pharmacy and compared with a baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany,
France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 7. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared with same period last year; 8. Domestic tickets by ticketing; 9. Retail goods sales include online and offline sales and comprise food and beverages, apparel, cosmetics and personal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel and food services;
10. Europe includes 27 countries currently in EU; 11. For China, total retail sales displayed (including automobiles and petroleum and related products) and compares 2021 to 2019. 12. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales data for over same month in previous year; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France,
UK, Spain, and Italy; 13. Underlying data is from Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 14. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared with previous year
period; EU trade values between EU and all outside countries 15. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 16. Data corresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Sources: JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, WHO, World Bank, IMF,
Bloomberg, Google Mobility, US Census Bureau, Eurostat, PRC National Bureau of Statistics, ACEA actuals, Marklines, ARC ticketing data, STR, Statista, CBOE, OECD, BEA, GACC (customs) China, ONS, BCG.

14

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To be updated in forthcoming editions

Many large economies expected to continue recovery
and reach 2019 GDP levels between 2021 and 2022
Economic Impact

As of 29 Nov 2021

GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (base: 100)
Europe

China

118.8
117.0
116.7

116
112

111.4
111.0
110.5
108.0
107.7
107.4

108
103.0
102.4
101.0

100

117.0

110.6

110.1
107.9

106.4
103.7

104.2
102.6
101.6
101.3

103.2

102.3
98.4
98.1
97.7
96.6

98.7
98.4
97.3

96.6

96

103.3
101.5
100.4
99.2

100.8
100.6
98.2

95.3
93.6

92

2021 forecast
vs. 2019

India1

105.1

104

88

Japan

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

92.7

2021

2022

101-103%

97-99%

2019 GDP levels (index)

Forecast IMF (Oct 2021)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

106-111%
Forecast World Bank (Jun 2021)

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

97-98%

2021

2022

99-105%

Forecast range from leading banks2

1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year. 2. Range from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit
Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC. Note: As of reports dated Oct 2021; YoY forecasted 2020 values are estimated actual GDP. Sources: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG.

15

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USRetail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; public transit and workplace mobility
remains lower in most countries – but signs of rebounding to normal levels across the board
Economic Impact

As of 29 Nov 2021

Workplace1, public transit2, and retail and recreation3 mobility compared with baseline of January 2020 to February 2020

Feb
20

Germany

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

Feb
20

May
20

Australia

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

Italy

Feb
20

Workplace mobility
Retail and recreation mobility

Lockdown easing4
Lockdown started4

Feb
20

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

South Korea

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

SwedenPublic transit mobility

Feb
20

May
20

Feb
20

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

May
20

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

Japan

Aug
20

Oct
20

Jan
21

Apr
21

Jul
21

Oct
21

Feb
20

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces. 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations. 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks,
museums, libraries, and cinemas. 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates for larger lockdowns. Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks during
Feb 15 2020–Feb 28 2021). Sources: Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.” https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/. ; press search; BCG.

16

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USManufacturing PMI global recovery indicates positive momentum
with some signs of a slowdown in recent months
Economic Impact

As of 29 Nov 2021

Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis

1 2

Neutrallevel = 50

2

1 1 1

0 0

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jun

July

Apr

May

Mar

Jan

Feb

Dec

Oct

Nov

Sep

Jun

Aug

Oct

Sep

1 2 0

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

5 5 5 4 4 3

Feb

Jan

Dec

0
Nov

-3 -2

Apr

2 3

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jun

July

May

Mar

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

1. Lockdown dates are pertaining only to Hubei province. Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding,staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive sentiment, and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment. Sources: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan
Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; EIKON.

4 3 2 3 30

-2 -1 -1

SepAug

-8 -10
-12

-5 -3

1 3

Feb

0

Jul

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Neutrallevel = 50

Jun

15 14

Apr

10

-2
Jun

Apr

-13 -1015 13 12 14 19 16 15 15May

6 9 10
2 4

May

Lockdown easing

1

Japan

Neutrallevel = 50

Lockdown started

Apr

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

SwedenJun-8 -9 -7

-19>0

1 3 3 3

Oct

-5 -3

-14 to 0

July

Apr

Neutrallevel = 50

Sep

12 12 10 11 10 11Aug

7 10 112 3 3 4 2 3 5May

Neutrallevel = 50

-29 to -15

2 1 2 2 1South Korea

Jul

Italy

≤ -30

1 1 1 1 1

May

Oct

Sep

Jul

Aug

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Jan

Feb

Jun

May

Apr

-16 -13

8 8

0 -1
Dec

-10

Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct

-14

17 16 14 15 16 13

-5
Oct

0

11
6 8 8 8 7Nov

8

Neutrallevel = 50

Sep

13 11 11Jul

11 12 127 7 9 9 9
3
3
3
1

Aug

Neutrallevel = 50

17

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China1

Germany

USPassenger vehicle sales had started to return to prepandemic levels
in some markets but dropped again as supply constraints continue
Economic Impact

As of 29 Nov 2021

2021 monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, % change vs. same month in 2019
China2
10% 8%

Sep

Aug

May

Jul

Oct

Sep

Jul

Jun

-15%
Sep

-9%
Aug

Jun

-1%

Oct

May
May

Apr

Mar

2%
-8%

-33%
Feb

-20% -20%

3%-7% -4%
Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

-16%

-11%
Aug

-4%

Jul

7%

1%

-30% -37%
Jun

May

Apr

-31% -25%

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Japan

63%

Mar

Feb

Jan

> 0%

-7% -8%

9%

5%
-3%

8%
-14% to 0%

6%-25% -24% -24%

-26%

-2% -2%

2%

-12%

-15%

Jan

Sweden

-11%

Mar

Feb

Jan

-18% -18%-29% to -15%

-3%

South Korea32%≤ -30%

-6%
Apr

Jan

Oct

Sep

Italy

Mar

-5% -4%

-37%

-38%

Jun

-19%
Aug

Jul

-29%

Feb

-16%

Jun

-26% -31%
May

Mar

Feb

-36%

-28%

Apr

-15%

Jan

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

-34%

-20% -21%
Oct-14% -7%Sep

0%-2% -5% -1%

4%2%

1. Passenger vehicle sales include data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, mini trucks, light trucks, and vans. 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high-tiercities, and extended NEV subsidies. 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models, and theincreased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into “camping cars.”
Sources: Marklines; BCG.

18

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

14%

Oct

Germany

USRetail store sales in China and US have rebounded across categories;
apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries
Economic Impact

As of 29 Nov 2021

Food and beverage stores

Personal care and cosmetics stores

Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct '21

US

15%

16%

16%

14%

17%

18%

UK

10%

4%

8%

3%

2%

2%

Spain

0%

-3%

-1%

Sweden

0%

5%

6%

3%

4%

5%

France

8%

8%

5%

7%

7%

9%

China1

20%

18%

23%

15%

11%

15%

Japan

-2%

0%

1%

2%

-1%

2%
4%
15%

Apparel stores3

Jul '21

Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct '21

US

14%

15%

14%

14%

15%

14%

UK2

-6%

-7%

-7%

-19%

-16%

-10%

Spain

1%

-1%

2%

1%

1%

0%

Sweden

4%

10%

13%

10%

11%

12%

9%

France

7%

10%

15%

24%

15%

China1

30%

36%

43%

18%

27%

24%

32%

Japan

42%

38%

46%

42%

43%

Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct '21

US

13%

8%

14%

11%

7%

7%

UK

30%

30%

19%

12%

13%

-2%

Spain

7%

17%

10%

8%

9%

10%

Sweden

18%

27%

22%

18%

16%

16%

14%

France

4%

11%

22%

10%

11%

China1

-7%

3%

15%

4%

-1%

1%

8%

Japan

5%

11%

1%

11%

-15%

-36%

-4%

Home appliance stores4

Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21

Jul '21

Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct '21

US

10%

13%

18%

14%

15%

17%

UK

-5%

-2%

-6%

-11%

-8%

-7%

Spain

-23%

-21%

-14%

-19%

-17%

-11%

Sweden

-27%

-15%

-11%

-14%

-11%

-17%

France

-63%

-17%

-3%

-8%

-7%

China1

3%

8%

8%

1%

-5%

Japan

-30%

-29%

-23%

-22%

-33%

≤ -30%

Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

0%

> 0%

-1%
-11%
6%

12%

To be updated in forthcoming editions

1. For China, Jan and Feb 2021 are reported together due to national holidays; food and beverages category includes only food and grains; 2. UK data set switched over from
Eurostat to Office for National Statistics following Brexit. 3. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc. 4. Includes audio video and home appliances stores. Note: For US, share in
retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care and cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25%, and building material andgardening equipment ~13%. Sector classification and mix may be different across countries.
Sources: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Office for National Statistics United Kingdom; Ministry of Economy Japan.

China and US have seen
strong rebounds in almost
all categories, even above
2019 levels
Retail store sales recovery
driven by food and beverage
across almost all countries.
Home appliance also seeing
growth, except for Japan
Apparel category continues
to see decline compared with2019, except for US and China
Personal care andcosmetics has seen strong
recovery through August 2021,
except for UK
19

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 7 December 2021 Version 2.0

Retail store sales breakdown by category, % change vs. same month in 2019

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