Lessons learned fromthe frontline of the global
COVID-19 vaccine rollout

March 2021

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 19 March 2021 Version 2.0

Executive
Perspectives

BCG Executive
Perspectives
OBJECTIVES OF THIS DOCUMENT

We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is first andforemost a societal crisis, threatening lives and the well-beingof our global community. Society now, more than ever, needs
to collaborate to protect people’s lives and health, manage midterm implications, and search for lasting solutions

LEADERS NEED TO DRIVE AN INTEGRATED RESPONSE
TO NAVIGATE THE CRISIS
It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business leaders
to navigate through this crisis. A complex interplay of epidemic
progression, societal response, government action, sector impact,
and company action is playing out. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate the crisis in
their own environments. It encourages thinking across the multiple
time horizons over which we see the crisis manifesting itself
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COVID-19 IS A GLOBAL SOCIETAL CRISIS

FlattenFight

FutureTypically in the initial phase after a pandemic
outbreak, the goal is to urgently limit the numberof new cases, especially critical care

Finding paths to collectively fight the virus,
restart the economy, and support society inbalancing lives and livelihood

Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/ herd
immunity and treatment within sustainable medical
capacities possible

Social distancing (lockdown) and partial businessclosures lead to economic recession with a large
employment impact

Increasing economic activity with recovering GDP,
some business reopenings, and social distancing
on a sustainable level

Reactivated economy with strong businessrebound and job growth, social restrictions limited orcompletely suspended

1. Disease progression, healthcare system capacity, and response
2. Government policies and economic stimulus
3. Economic scenarios
4. Business engagement and response
5. Public engagement and response

All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG

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The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged economic
impact, government policies, and business and public responses

Summary snapshot | Restart progression at a glance
As of 15 Mar 2021

Epidemic Progression

Consumer Activity

Business Impact

Global epidemic snapshot

Mobility

Stock market performance

120M

20.7M

2.7M

359M

# of
cases

# of
active cases# offatalities

Vaccine doses
administered

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Americas

1.7x

1.4x

1.1x

0.6x

Europe

1.8x

0.8x

1.1x

0.7x

Asia3

1.0x

1.1x

0.7x

0.9x

Economic Impact
IMF4 (Jan '21)

GDP forecasts (YoY%)
2021
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

0 2

4 6
4.2%

Banks58 10 12 14 16 18 20

5.1%
3.1%
8.1%
11.5%

Mobility6(month vs.
Jan '20)

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking7,8 (YoY)

Nov

Dec

Jan

US

-20%

-20%

-26%

Europe

-31%

--34%

Japan

-7%

-6%

Month end vs. 02 Jan '20

Nov

Dec

Jan

S&P500

11%

15%

14%

-47%

FTSE100

-18%

-15%

-16%

-22%

CHN SSE

10%

12%

13%

Volatility Index (S&P500)12

1.6x

1.8x

2.7x

US

1%

3%

2%

France

0%

5%

China

14%

13%

US

57

57

59

EU

54

55

55

China

52

52

51

Steel production (YoY)15

6%

6%

8%

US

-45%

-43%

-54%

UK

-55%

-53%

-78%

China

-5%

-15%

-37%

Sales
Retailgoods sales9(excl. auto &
fuel, YoY)

US

5%

2%

10%

Europe10

0%

2%

-4%

China

4%

4%

Passenger
vehiclesales11(YoY)

US

-21%

-9%

-15%

Europe

-5%

-3%

-22%

China

13%

7%

30%

International trade
Trade value13(YoY)

Industrial production
Purchasing
manager’s
index14(base = 50)

1. Calculated as 7-day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. IMF Jan 2021 forecast; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America;
Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to Mar 01 2021; For India's GDP forecast, World Bank's 2020 forecast from 08 June provides the upper bound of the forecast range; 6. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit, retail & recreation, and grocery & pharmacy and compared to abaseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 7. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 8. As of 01 Mar 2021; 9. Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, generalmerchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Europe includes 27 countries currently in EU; 11. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales data for over same month in previous year; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago
Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous year period; EU trade values between EU and all outside countries 14.
PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 15. Data corresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Source: JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, WHO, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Google Mobility, US Census Bureau, Eurostat, PRC National
Bureau of Statistics, ACEA actuals, Marklines, ARC ticketing data, STR, Statista, CBOE, OECD, BEA, GACC (customs) China, ONS, BCG

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To be updated in forthcoming editions

AGENDALESSONS LEARNED FROM THE FRONTLINE OF THE
GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT
Global vaccine development and implementation
Equitable vaccine distribution and path to normality

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

5

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BCG Executive
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A

B

INITIAL FINDINGS

Develop and implement global
COVID-19 vaccination programwith unprecedented speed

STRATEGIC PRIORITIESMinimize harm from COVID-19 andmaximize equitable distribution
within and across nations

1

Vaccine development in record time

2

Vaccination uptake will follow "S-curve"

3

Vaccine effectiveness proven in real world1

Developed nations must focus on uptake

2

Urgency to get vaccine to Southern Hemisphere as winter approaches

3

Phased approach to reopening will save lives

4

COVID-19 will stay; goal to treat as "next flu"

Safe and effective vaccines were developed, tested, and approved with
unprecedented speed
Vaccine uptake can be modeled along a predictive path, shaped byshifting constraints and supply
Israel is a successful example showing that broad vaccination across the
population results in controlling cases
Developed nations will soon have adequate supply, but must address
hesitancy to increase demand
Low- and middle-income countries lack vaccine supply; redistribution fromdeveloped nations is crucial to protect populations
A planned and phased approach to reopening alongside other publichealth measures is critical
COVID-19 will not be fully eliminated; the mid-term objective is to derisk and manage it like the "next flu"

6

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7 key lessons learned from the frontline of the global COVID-19 vaccine rollout

A.1 Vaccine development in record time

Process acceleration

As of March 15th, 2021, 121 vaccine candidates
have been approved for use globally

Despite concerns, no steps were skippedin the vaccine development process

Registration trials have resulted in 0
hospitalizations and deaths

Regulatory agencies substantiallyaccelerated review between phases

Year

Traditional 5–10- year process1

Exploratory/
pre-clinical2

Phase I

3

Phase II

4
5
10

Phase III
Phasedapprovals2
Mfg. & dist.
scale-up<12 month COVID-19 vaccine timeline<12-month timeline from
exploration to phased `approvals
For early availability andaccess, manufacturing
kick-started before
granting of EUAs3

Looking ahead
Clinical assessments forapproved vaccines willcontinue throughout
vaccination rollout
Thus far, vaccines
scrutinized by scientificcommunity were foundsafe and effective

Both public health andprivate organizations
continue to emphasize
importance ofvaccination andcombatingmisinformation witheducation on vaccine
safety and efficacy

1. CanSino Biologics, Sinovac, Gamaleya, WIBP Sinopharm, BIBP Sinopharm, Vektor, Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Bharat Biotech, CoviVac, Janssen; 2. Phased approvals are sequential approvals for specific segments of population based on
Phase III results; 3. Emergency use authorization
7
Source: FDA, CDC, Press search, BCG

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Vaccine candidates

TrialsVaccine development timelineKeyfindings

Safe and effective vaccines were developed, tested, and approved with unprecedented speed

A.2 Vaccination uptake will follow "S-curve"

Vaccine uptake can be modeled along a predictive path, shaped by shifting constraints and supply
Ramp up

SupplyThroughput

Reach the end

SupplyDemandSupply constraints initially result from the lack of vaccines in the market. As
vaccines are approved and distribution begins, supply can be constrained by # ofadministrators, storage requirements, etc.
IsraelUAE

Disease risk minimized through significant shareof vulnerable population being vaccinated2
USA
Germany

France1UK2Demand constraints are driven byhesitancy, due to questions on safety andeffectiveness3
Demand becomes
constraint

Vaccine supply ramps up

Address bottlenecks inrollout and expand supplyTime

As of 25 Feb 2021

Looking ahead
As nations continue to obtain more vaccine supply, they will reach an inflection point where demand will be the primary constraint.
Priorities will shift from increasing vaccine supply to increasing uptake among different populations, particularly those that are
vaccine hesitant
1. Does not distinguish between 1 vs. 2-dose regimen (i.e., those who have had 1 out of 2 doses are considered as "vaccinated") 2. Disease risk minimization dependent on the share of vulnerable people that get vaccinatedSource: Our World in Data, BCG analysis

8

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Primary
constraint

Uptake level1

Conceptual illustration

Rollout

A.2 (continued) Vaccine campaigns are underway globally; countries are at different stages

100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Israel

Spain
UAE

Italy
BrazilGermany
FranceUK
US

CanadaRussiaArgentina
India
Mexico

0

30

60

90

Days since first vaccine was administered
Note: Data counted as a single dose and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime. For China and Russia, first available data point in December is treated as Day 0, although vaccinationscommenced in Summer/Fall 2020
Source: Our World in Data

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Total vaccinations per hundred people

Cumulative COVID-19 vaccinations given per 100 people as of 05 March 2021

A.3 Vaccine effectiveness proven in real world

Looking ahead

Vaccination>50% of total population has received at least 1 dose (~4.5M people)>80% of people aged 60+ are fully vaccinated~50% decrease in hospitalizations since peak1

Israel continues tovaccinate more people
while continuing withother public healthmeasures

Daily hospitalizations in Israel2
As of 04 Mar 2021

Israel begins
vaccinations on Dec
20th with healthcare
workers and people 60+

Data

2,000

1,000

0

Mask mandate
continues even withvaccination progress

Aug

Sep

Oct
Israel enters 2nd
lockdown on
Sep 18th

Nov

Dec

Jan
Israel enters 2nd
lockdown on
Dec 27th3

Feb

Mar
As of Feb 17th,
ages 16+ are
eligible4

1. Change in 7-day trailing average of daily hospitalizations from Jan 21st peak to Mar 4th; 2. 7-day trailing average of daily hospitalizations in Israel; 3. Third lockdown ended on February 8, 2021; 4.
People with severe allergic reactions, recovered patients, and <16 years are not yet eligible
Source: Our World in Data; Israel Ministry of Health; MedRXIV; Jerusalem Post; Times of Israel; CNN

Israel continues topromote vaccination
while closely
monitoring different
variants

Reopening continues as
vaccinated people areissued a "green pass",
which can be presented
on paper or via mobile
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Key
statistics

Israel is a successful example showing that broad vaccination across the population results in controlling cases

B.1 Developed nations must focus on uptake
U.S. example shown

Looking ahead

U.S. vaccine supply forecasts
Based on current manufacturer commitments, the U.S. will have enough vaccines available for:•200 million people in CDC's priority groups by early May1•

All 250 million U.S. adults by end of May2

Vaccine hesitancy

U.S. adult As of 08 Mar 2021
population not
yet vaccinated 185 million
or scheduled:% Hesitant per segment
58%

33%

This includes building
slack capacity into
system to allow for
uneven supply releases

57%

~15 M
Definitely

42%

~8 M
~9 M

Likely

12%

Maybe

16%

Unlikely

10%

Definitely not

19%

Overall U.S.
Adult Population

Rapidly expand vaccine
throughput capacity toaccommodate forsupply increases
immediately

~85 M
~53 M

Hesitant
adultsBlack Americans Pre-retirement
White Americans

Low-income
White
Americans3

Remaining

Urgently address
vaccine hesitancy
through targeted
outreach to increase
uptake of vaccine

1. Captures all priority groups (~202M) including healthcare workers, 65+, health vulnerable, and essential workers since prioritization varies across states ; 2. 77% of US population (~253M) over 18 years old; 3. Excluding Black Americans and WhiteAmericas age 55 to 64. Note: Vaccine supply estimates based on US purchasing agreements, including for J&J vaccine, which was given Emergency Use Authorization by FDA late February; Assumes near constant flow of doses from manufacturer.
Hesitancy is attributed to respondents who answered 'Maybe,’ 'Somewhat unlikely,' or 'Highly unlikely' to a question asking whether they would make an appointment for a COVID-19 vaccine today if it were available; responses filtered to include only
individuals who had not already received a vaccine and were not scheduled to receive a vaccine at the time of the survey.
Source: BCG National Vaccine Sentiment Survey February 17-22, 2021; n = 1,450; overall sample representative of US adult population by age, income, ethnicity, gender, and region); US American Community Survey 2019; CDC COVID Data Tracker; New
11
York Times; Bloomberg; NPR; Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J press releases

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Vaccine supply

Developed nations will soon have adequate supply, but must address hesitancy to increase demandB.2 Urgent need to get vaccine to Southern Hemisphere as winter approaches

Vaccine doses administered per 100 people

70%

of vaccines have gone to people
representing 20% of countries
These countries have an average
GDP per capita more than 2x
global average

No data

Mission critical toprotect populations inlow- and middle-income
countries as variants
proliferate and winterapproaches in theSouthern Hemisphere

0-5

5-10

10-50

50+
Doses per 100 people

Vaccine contracts

No data

As of 15 Mar 2021

Doses contracted as a % of population
It is imperative toredistribute vaccines
immediately fromwealthy nations toprevent impending
health crises

0-5%

50%

of countries have only secured
enough vaccine supply for 5% of
their population

Looking ahead

5-50%

50-100%100%+% of population covered

1.Low- and middle-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capita of <$12,536 per year (World Bank)
Source: Our World in Data; Bloomberg Vaccine Contract Tracker

As of 01 Mar 2021

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Administered vaccines

Low- and middle-income countries1 lack vaccine supply; redistribution from developed nations is crucial to protect populations

B.3 Phased approach to reopening will save lives

A planned and phased approach to reopening alongside other public health measures is critical

Modeled impact of phased and delayed reopening decisions on ICU occupancy peak

% of baseline peak ICU
100
80
60

25-30%

It is critical forbusinesses, schools, etc.
to use a phased
reopening approach,with clear thresholds
for action based on
local infection
dynamics andvaccination progress

20-25%
15-20%

40

5-15%

20
0

Looking ahead

Reduction in ICU
1 month
3 monthBaseline Peak
2 monthICU occupancy: peak if restrictions
restrictions lifted lifted in phases
Reduction in ICU peak for each month that reopening is delayed
all at once today

Source: IHME; Daily COVID ICU hospitalizations for a national government, BCG analysis

Potential reduced
ICU peakAs reopening
commences, COVID-19
testing, contact tracing,and other public healthmeasures should
continue to be upheld

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Modeled effects of reopening decisions

65-90%

reduction in peak ICU occupancy projected by phasing the lifting of restrictions
and delaying reopenings

B.4 COVID-19 will stay; goal to treat as "next flu"

35x

reduction in Infection
Hospitalization Rate
(IHR) for people aged
65+1 after
vaccination

Looking ahead
Through regularvaccination, COVID-19
risk can be managed tolevels similar to thoseof the annual flu

COVID-19 vaccines can help reduce hospitalization rates to manageablelevels that are even below the hospitalization rates of the annual flu

Variants introduced over time pose risks to vaccine efficacy
As of 05 Mar 2021

Variants have thepotential to increase
COVID-19 infectiousness
and/or decreasevaccine effectivenessJan-200Mar-21

20
Feb-21

20J/501YV3/P.1 /P.2

Jan-2120E (EU1)

Dec-2020I/501YV1/B.1.1.7

Nov-2020C40

Oct-2020H/501YV2 / B.1.351

Sep-2020B

60Aug-2020GJul-2020A80

Jun-2020D

May-2019B

Apr-2020F

Mar-2019A

Feb-20

Variants

100

Booster shots
administered on aregular cadence canhelp combat variants

1. Derived using the CDC's data on COVID-19 net hospitalization, South Korea’s hospitalization data, and data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Note: Several of the concerning variants (e.g., those first identified in
the UK and South Africa), share mutations (e.g., N501Y), while also having distinct mutations (some more than others)
Source: JAMA, Nextstrain, Financial Times, Virological, CDC, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, real world data in South Korea and Israel, BCG analysis

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Hospitalization rates

COVID-19 will not be fully eliminated; the mid-term objective is to de-risk and manage it like the "next flu"Vaccine roll-out underway amidst spread of COVID-19 variants; vaccine distribution andaccess raise ethical questions
As of 18 Mar 2021

President Biden says US would haveenough vaccine doses for every adult
American by the end of May

February 18, 2021

Emmanuel Macron urges Europe
and US to send 5% of vaccines to
AfricaMarch 3, 2021

As COVID-19 vaccines spread, so do
underhanded ways to get them—not
everyone is prepared to wait their turn

March 4, 2021

Hundreds of fake COVID-19 vaccines
seized in South Africa, Interpol says

March 2, 2021

Virus variant in Brazil infected many
who had already recovered fromCOVID-19

March 18, 2021

European nations will resume
AstraZeneca vaccine rollout as EU
regulator affirms safety

March 4, 2021

U.K. to fast-track approval of vaccines
for COVID-19 variants

March 2, 2021

Texas and other states ease COVID-19
rules despite warnings

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March 2, 2021

Educate &encourage

Facilitate
access

Educate employees
on vaccines and/or
encourage uptake
Encourage vaccination andhighlight benefits througheducational information;
sharing science andevidence from trusted
authorities

ACTIONS FORLEADERS

Incentivize

Penalize

MandateMake it easierfor employees to get
vaccinatedReward individuals
for inoculating

Punish individuals
for not inoculating

Require vaccination
for a group of individuals

Adjust workers' schedules
around vaccine
appointments

Provide paid time off andtransportation to vaccination

Restrict work travel orattendance at company
events without vaccine

Mandate employees to be
vaccinatedNo paid medical leave if
vaccine is refused

Require proof of
vaccination for onsite
vendors and/or customers

Provide onsite vaccination

Simpler interventions (minimal
liability or legal issues,straightforward communications)

Provide $100 for vaccination
or educational course if
medical/religious exemptionMore complex issues withliability and legal issues toresolve, complex
communications
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Exampleinterventions

Action areas for leaders | Menu of actions under consideration by companies
to encourage uptake among employees, subject to local regulation

AGENDALESSONS LEARNED FROM THE FRONTLINE OF THE
GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT
Global vaccine development and implementation
Equitable vaccine distribution and path to normality

UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

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After a substantial case peak during Northern Hemisphere’s winter,global case volumes have begun to drop

EPIDEMICPROGRESSION

As of 15 Mar 2021

Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)
800,000

South
America

600,000

North
America

400,000

1
Asia
North
AmericaSouth America
AfricaAsia1
North
America
Africa200,000

120M# of confirmed cases

20.7M# of active cases

Europe0MarMonth-onmonth growthof new cases2

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

~235% ~20% ~50% ~60% ~10% ~10% ~40% ~50% ~10% ~10% ~(40%)

1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean); 2. Calculated as monthly as average of daily as compared
To previous month; Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG

2.7M# of fatalities
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Key observations

EPIDEMICPROGRESSION

COVID-19 has broader geographic reach today with countries at different
stages in their fightAs of 15 Mar 2021

CONTINUATIONRESURGENCE

CRUSH AND CONTAIN

Curve was never quite flattened;
on-going battle

Curve was flattened, but saw one
or more resurgences

Curve was flattened and casecounts continue to remain low

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar '21

Argentina

UAE

BrazilUS

1. Data shown as 7 day rolling average of daily new cases per million
Source: Our World in Data; BCG

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

FranceGermany

Switzerland

UK

Mar '21
Spain

Mar

Jun

Sep

Australia

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

Dec

Mar '21

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Non-exhaustiveMany large economies expected to continue recovery and reach2019 GDP levels between 2021-2022

ECONOMICIMPACT

As of 01 Mar 2021

US

Europe

China

116

Japan

120.8

India1

116.8
115.8
112.9

112

110.8

114.8

112.0

110.6
110.1

108

109.6

107.2

104

103.1

100

101.5
99.8
98.8

96

96.6
96.4

106.0

104.1

104.1
103.1

103.1

102.3
102.0

100.6
98.6

100.1
99.8

99.5

96.9

97.8
97.1
95.8

96.6
95.9
94.8

101.7
100.2

97.6

96.8

95.3

94.9
94.7

92.8
92.6

92

102.6

100.2
99.3

92.0
90.4

88

2021 forecast
vs 2019

2019

2020

2021

2022

99-103%2019 GDP levels (Index)

2019

2020

2021

2022

95-99%
Forecast IMF (Jan 20, 2021)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

107-113%
Forecast World Bank (Jan 5, 2021)

2020

2021

2022

2019

96-100%

2020

2021

2022

98-106%

Forecast range from leading banks2

Note: As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to 01 Mar 2021, YoY forecasts 2020 values are estimated actual GDP; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range
from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG

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GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)

Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; public transit mobility
remains lower in most countries

ECONOMICIMPACT

As of 01 Mar 2021

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr
Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Sweden

Feb

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

South Korea

Mar

Feb

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Italy

Feb

Australia

Germany

US

Japan

Mar

Feb

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Lockdown easing4

May

Lockdown started4

Apr

Public transit mobility
Mar

Retail & recreation

Feb

Workplace mobility

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers,
theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas; 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks
during Feb 15 2020–Feb 28 2021); Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 01 Mar 2020; Press search; BCG

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Workplace1, public transit2 and retail & recreation3 mobility compared to baseline of January 2020 to February 2020

Manufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates positive momentum

ECONOMICIMPACT

As of 01 Mar 2021

China1

GermanyUS
Neutrallevel = 50

1

3

0
-1

4

6

5

9

8

11 9

Neutrallevel = 50

1
-5 -2 -5

2

6

8

8

8

7

Neutrallevel = 50

Italy
2
-1 -1

-10

3

3

4

2

3

5

Lockdown started-14% to 0%

Lockdown easing

> 0%

1

2

Neutrallevel = 50

1

2

2

1

1 3 3 3
0 -1

-5 -3
-19

Sweden-29% to -15%

1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-6-8 -9 -7

-3 -2

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan≤ -30%

1

South Korea

Neutrallevel = 50

Neutrallevel = 50

1

-14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

1-5-16 -13

-9 -7

2

0

Japan
2

3

1
-7

-13 -11

3

5

8

9

15 12

-3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Neutrallevel = 50

0
-1 -2

-5

-8

-5
-12

-1
-3 -2 -1

-0.2

-10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding,staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment; Source: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan
Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; EIKON

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Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis

Passenger vehicle sales see rebounds but dips again in countries
with second wave of lockdowns

ECONOMICIMPACT

As of 01 Mar 2021
Monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, YOY % change vs past year
9%

Italy

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Jan

Dec

Oct

Nov

-6%
Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

19%

0% 6%

-2%

6% 10% 7%

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

-13%
-15%
-30% -23% -15%
-47%
May

Mar

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

July

Jan

-34%

-50%
Jun

-12% -10% -9%

Apr-5% -13%

Feb

-13%

Jan

-4%

30%

26%

Deec

-22%
May

Mar

Apr

-37%
Feb

Jan

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

July

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Jan

Feb

-6% -9%> 0%
Jan

Lockdown easing

18%

9%

Japan
7%

Lockdown started

11% 12% 13%-14% -20%-98%

Sweden-14% to 0%

Aug

46%
-7 -14 -14-11%-48% -24%-85%-29% to -15%

July

South Korea3-6% -8%≤ -30%

Jun

May

Apr

-48%
-82%

2% 8% 0%

-18%

30%

-2%

-20%

Mar

Jan

Nov

-30%

Feb

-4% -3%

Oct

Sep

July

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

-32%
-38%
-61% -49%

-20%

Aug

-5%

-7% -11%

Jan

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

-9% -9%-9% -15%
-23%
-30%
-21%
-43% -40%
-46%
-58%
Mar

-4%

Feb

Jan

-14%

7% 2% 9% 6% 8% 9% 13% 7%

Jan

8%

1. Passenger vehicle sales includes data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, and vans; 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high tier cities and extended NEV
subsidies; 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models and the increased appreciation by
the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into 'camping cars'.
Source: Marklines; BCG

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China2Jan

Germany

Dec

USRetail goods sales (excl. auto and fuel) have rebounded to pre-COVID-19
levels across most countries
As of 15 Mar 2021

ECONOMICIMPACT

Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personalcare, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan
'21

US

4%

4%

1%

-15%

-4%

3%

4%

5%

7%

6%

5%

2%

10%

UK

1%

0%

-4%

-19% -11%

1%

3%

4%

6%

7%

6%

-

-

Italy

1%

2%

-18% -27% -11%

-1%

-11%

1%

0%

1%

-7%

-6%

-8%

Sweden

3%

5%

2%

-3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

5%

0%

3%

Belgium

2%

1%

-6%

-14%

2%

7%

3%

14%

5%

8%

-5%

9%

5%

-12%

-6%

-1%

2%

-2%

-1%

2%

1%

4%

4%

-

1%

-6%

-2%

9%

7%

7%

-1%

12%

8%

6%

3%

China2Japan≤ -30%-16%
0%2%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

Retail goods sales have rebounded
to pre-COVID-19 levels, withcountries showing higher growthlevels than in Jan
US and UK have seen consistentretail sales growth over last 6monthsSome European countries haveseen retail sales dips coinciding
with second waves ofcases/lockdown> 0%

1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; country-specific categorization; 2. For China,
combined value of Jan & Feb is available
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

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Growth of total retail goods sales (excl. auto & fuel)1, YOY % change vs same month past yearDe-averaged view | Retail store sales in China have rebounded across
categories; apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries
As of 15 Mar 2021

ECONOMICIMPACT

Food & beverage stores

Personal care & cosmetics stores

US

Jan
'21
15% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 12%

UK

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

6%

-

Italy

1%

-1% -2%

2%

1%

2%

3%

0% 1% 0%Belgium 10% 4% 4%China1
11% 11% 7%

2%

3%

2%

2%

5%
2%

2%

6%

5%

5%

9%

9%

-

Japan

2%

2%

4%

0%

-1%

0%

May June Jul

Sweden

2%

3%

1%

4%

5%

Jan
'21
7%

1% 15% 14% 3%--

May June Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

US-8% -1%

4%-

UK-30% -5% -1%

4%

3%

Italy

-13% -9% -5% -1% -2% -2% -2% -12% -13%

2%0%

Sweden

-5%

0%

-3%

2% 11% 4%

Belgium
China1-8% 0% 0% 3% 7% 9% 0% -3%
13% 21% 9% 22% 16% 20% 32% 9%

-

Japan

-3%

-1%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Apparel stores2

3%

3%

4%

1%

1%

2%

2%

5%

3%

-7%

4%

0%

3%

1%

-1%

1%

-

Home appliance stores3

US

Jan
'21
-62% -24% -23% -20% -9% -11% -16% -16% -10%

US

Jan
'21
-42% -20% -6% -4% -7% -5% -10% -16% -2%

UK-60% -34% -25% -15% -14% -14% -29%UK

-29% 2% 12% 13% 11% 18% 21%

Italy-43% -18% -41% -2% -3% -4% -44% -26% -40%

Italy

-15% 2%

Sweden15% 15% 15% 7% 10% 9% 17% 5% 11%

Belgium
China1

2% 14% 2% 23% 19% 16% -18% 11%
4% 10% -2% 4% -3% 1% 5% 11%

Japan

9% 26% 12% 10% -29% 29% 25% 15% 11%

May June Jul

May June Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec---31% -22% -22% -18% -14% -14% -25% -30% -24%
Belgium -35% -9% -33% 18% -7% -14% -73% -13% -1% 0% -3% 2% 6% 10% 5% 4%
China1

SwedenJapan-35% -6% -19% -18% -24% -4% -8% -5% -18%

≤ -30%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

0%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2%

2%

-

-

2% -12% -11% -1%-

China's sales (except Home
Appliances) have rebounded past
year-ago run rates
Retail store sales recovery driven by
F&B across all countries
Personal care & cosmetics
category sales have rebounded
to 2019 levels except in Italy
Apparel category saw the largest
decline; continued fluctuations andfar from recovery across countries
except China
Home appliances sales with
mixed development; US sales
continue to struggle> 0%

1. For China, Feb data includes both Jan & Feb, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.; 3. Includes audio video &home appliances stores; Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, generalmerchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equipment ~13%. Sector classification & mix may be different across countries; Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National
Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

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Retail store sales breakdown by category, YoY % change vs same month in past year

Stock markets continue to have an optimistic outlook: 11 out of 24 sectors
currently above pre-crisis TSR levels
As of 01 Mar 2021

ECONOMICIMPACT

Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies

Semiconductors
Tech Hardware
Media
Materials
Retailing
Durable Goods
Capital Goods
Auto
Financials
Software
Health Equipment
PharmaProf. Services
Household Products
Hospitality
Food/Staples retailInsurance
Banks
Food & Beverage
EnergyTransport
Telecom
Real Estate
Utilities

Companies2 with probability of default >15%3

21 Feb 2020
-20 Mar 2020

21 Feb 2020
-28 Feb 2021

21 Feb 2020

28 Feb 2021

-30%
-26%
-36%
-32%
-40%
-39%
-35%
-41%
-35%
-30%
-31%
-20%
-30%
-16%
-44%
-10%
-39%
-39%
-23%
-52%
-34%
-17%
-39%
-30%

60%
25%
21%
20%
19%
18%
12%
12%
8%
5%
5%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-5%
-7%
-8%
-10%
-11%
-13%
-13%
-16%

0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

0%
0%
0%
4%
18%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
15%
0%
0%
4%
0%
12%
24%
4%
0%
3%

1. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 28 Feb 2021; 2. Retailing, Hospitality,
Transport and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies with a probability of default > 15%; 3. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median; Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS
definitions; Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

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TSR1

US Vaccine sentiment

Getting to the COVID-19 Finish Line: A Drama in 3 Acts

Reimagining global health after the coronavirus

Seven lessons from the corporate frontlines

Why the global economy is recovering faster than
expected

A Vaccination Strategy to Save Lives and Livelihoods

As vaccines roll out, testing still matters

What 12,000 employees have to say about the future of
remote work

Designing resilience into global supply chains

Source: BCG

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Additional perspectives on COVID-19

Disclaimer

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