War in Ukraine:
Perspective
on Refugee Crisis\\
and Global Update
BCG Global Advantage & Social Impact Practice Areas
Prepared: 27 April 2022

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Introduction to this document

The war in Ukraine is above all a political and humanitarian crisis…
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a serious humanitarian crisis on many dimensions, from refugees toglobal food risks. BCG condemns this war and the violence that is killing, wounding, and disrupting the lives of somany people.

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

It is the duty of political, societal, and business leaders to navigate through this crisis. The intent of thisdocument is to inform discussions and decisions on the global refugee impact of the war in Ukraine.
The top priority in moments like these remains the safety and security of people. Corporates have alreadytaken decisive action to respond to the short-term crisis. However, on-going attention is needed to support
displaced Ukrainians and others affected, as well to address long-term structural challenges.
The situation surrounding Ukraine is dynamic and rapidly evolving - this document also shares the global
economic impact and reflects information and analysis as of 27 April 2022. It is not intended as a predictionof future events and is shared only as a resource for BCG and client conversations.
2

REFUGEE CRISIS
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing one of the largest humanitarian crises sinceWorld War II, triggering a mass mobilization of 5 million refugees. Neighboring
European countries are straining to provide for this population. Depending on the war’s
duration, intensity, and geographic scope, the total number of refugees could surpass 8

BCG Executive
Perspectives
IN THIS DOCUMENT

million.
The majority of Ukrainian refugees are women traveling with children and elders. Manyare highly educated, can work and study remotely, have access to Ukrainian banks, andshare a cultural and linguistic affinity with Slavic nations. Most refugees are also
officially registered.

So far, the humanitarian response is effectively addressing refugees’ most pressing
needs. But in the coming months, host nations will be challenged to meet refugees’
longer-term, structural needs, such as employment, financial assistance, health care andchildcare, housing, schooling, and language training.
Companies face a moment of truth in terms of authentically fulfilling their societal
purposes. Companies should begin moving decisively to work with governments andNGOs to address refugees’ structural needs. Indeed, employees, investors, regulators,
and stakeholders are increasingly counting on this corporate engagement.

Prepared: 27 April 2022

War in Ukraine:
Refugee Crisis
and Global Update

Perspective on Refugee Crisis
Refugee crisis & journey
Detail on corporate action

AGENDA
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Implications for leaders
Global economic impact of the war in Ukraine

4

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Summary | Large-scale refugee crisis requires coordinated corporate action
Refugeecrisis &journey

Flows

Characteristics~5M Ukrainian refugees already entered Europe, end state uncertain
The crisis is characterized by five factors: (1) unique demographics; (2) connected through social
media & remote work; (3) culturally close to neighboring countries; (4) traveling short distances;(5) minimum immigration constraints
Refugee groups affected differently; 55-70% are most vulnerable mothers with children, large
families & elders

CorporateactionAs refugees move along their journey, they face structural needs that pose a significant challenge
in the medium- and long-term

Corporates face another moment of truth with an opportunity to play a role in humanitarian crisis support,
actioning their purpose in support of stakeholders and society
Corporates have taken decisive action to respond to the short-term crisis, now can shift focus to making
a difference in addressing long-term structural challenges
Deep-dives on Healthcare, Housing, Employment and Childcare & Education provide a blueprint forcorporate leaders to identify areas of short- and long-term action that align with pressing refugee needs

Implications

Opportunities for corporate leaders to maximize support effectiveness through short-term response;
structural, long-term action; and communication

5

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Needs

Prepared: 27 April 2022

AGENDA

Refugee crisis & journey
Detail on corporate action
Implications for leaders
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

War in Ukraine:
Refugee Crisis
and Global Update

Perspective on Refugee Crisis

Global economic impact of the war in Ukraine

6

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Refugee outward flows

5.0

24 February through 22 April (M)4.7

Additional refugees in week

4.3

Cumulative refugees by the week's start

4.0

3.6

Flows |

3.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.8

2.3

4.7
3.6

1.3

1.0

4.0

4.3

3.1
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

~5M Ukrainian
refugees alreadyentered Europe,end state
uncertain

2.3

1.0

Averagedaily flow1

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

~150k

~190k

~120k

~70k

~55k

~50k

~60k

~45k

1. Average number of people leaving Ukraine per day in that week. Source: BCG experience & analysis.
Note: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, andthe situation is changing daily.

7Prepared: 27 April 2022

Flows | Current capacity constraints in Central Eastern Europe, future flows
could mount pressure on Western Europe
Movement from borderto European countries~56% entered the Schengen Area throughPoland and 18% through Hungary

Indicative view on refugees flows until
April 22, 2022

All other bordering countries also facing
capacity constraints

1%

1%
X% of all refugees
1%
1%

1%

0 - 100
100 – 1,000
1,000 – 2,000
2,000 – 4,000
Over 4,000~65% settling down in Central Eastern
Europe

<1%

1%
39%

1%

~35% already flowing to other European
countries

8%
7%
1%

1%
1%

1%

5%
6%

4%

Long-term flows could add significant
pressure on Western European countries

4%

2%
1%

1%

1%
<1%

Note: Actual number of "unique" refugees might be slightly lower as the crossing are not counted as per "unique" person, however at this point it is uncertain
whether the return is permanent or temporary. Note: Indicative view; recent analyses indicate that onward travel from directly neighboring countries (particularly
Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) and hence also inflow to not directly neighboring countries (particularly Germany, Italy, France) might be higher than stated. Note:
These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, and the situationis changing daily.Source: UNHCR; interviews with NGOS; survey among refugees, BCG calculation & analysis

Limited flows to rest of the world, withpotential to increase long-term intake
Backward flows taking place, but
uncertainty over permanent returns
8

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Refugees per 100,000
inhabitants indestination country

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Flows | Crisis could worsen to +6-8M refugees or even more, depending on
conflict escalation, geographic reach, and duration
Flows scenarios (M people)
1A

1B

Internally displaced

Refugees

Settled migrants

Rapid occupation of limited territory
Rapid end of conflict, reducing number of IDPs
and settled migrants

8

6

2.5

6

3.5

Occupation of limited territory in longertime
War extended at least until late 2022 & more IDPs

92

Occupation of larger share of Ukrainian
territory
Longer term military operation & higher intensity

11

8

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Increase in settled migrants given higher degree of
integration in new countries

5.5

Increase in IDPs/refugees' forced displacements
3

Major shift in conflict dynamic
Significantly higher share of occupied territory
and/or conflict intensity

?

?

?

Potential mass displacements
Source: BCG Experience & analysis
Note: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, and the situation is changing daily.

9Prepared: 27 April 2022

Characteristics | The Ukrainian refugee crisis is characterized by five factors

Demographics

Connectivity

CultureDistance

Immigration

Predominantly
women with kids

Broad use of social
media, especially
Telegram

Ukraine's closesocio-linguistics
and cultural ties
to Europe

Short physicaljourney

Minimal irregularimmigration, mostrefugees controlled
and registered

Proportion of urban
population withhigh education

Remote education
and working
possible
Remote access to
Ukrainian banking
systemMinimum
languagedifferences with
Slavic countries

Temporary nature
still dominant due
to close distance
Expectation to
return

Low number of
unaccompanied
minors so far

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Majority of men
left at home andmight join later

Low humantraffic-related risks

Details in next slide

Characteristics reflect the current situation, but may evolve as crisis unfolds further
Source: BCG Experience & analysis

10Prepared: 27 April 2022

Characteristics | Refugee groups affected differently; 55-70% are mostvulnerable mothers with children, large families, and elders

Upper- or middleclass families

Family members
in host country

Mothers withchildren

Largerfamilies

ElderlypeopleFirst refugee wave leveraging
family network

Families joining members
working in host country

Urban families in the laterwaves, men staying in UA

Larger families with 4-5 ormore kids

Elders, often with special
conditions, last to leave

Urban, educated & foreign
language speaking

Financial buffer available

Groups of 2-3 mothers withkids & extended family

Weaker economic position
before the war, reliant on aid

Couples or singles travel ingroups of 2-3

Looking to work if childcare
needs resolved

No clear plan, staying longer
in transit & in governmental
shelters

Might leave due to required
medical assistance

Financial buffer available

Strong local network andbetter language knowledge
Accommodation likely
organized in advanceHigh probability of staying
longer

Est. share~5-10%~25-30%Require schooling, medicalcare & assistance
Depending on war evolution,
partners might join~40-45%Might return to UA if
situation is not significantly
better in host country~10-15%

Source: UNHCR; F2F interviews; BCG Analysis
Note: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, and the situation is changing daily.

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Five major refugee 'personas' identified on the groundLess stable financial buffer,
housing and financial aid
required in short term
Limited self-sufficiency,
care often required~5-10%
11

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Needs | As refugees move along their journey, they face structural needs thatpose a significant challenge in the medium- and long-term
So far, effective mobilization& response to shorter-term needs
Bordercrossing

Challenge to address more structural, longer-term needs(e.g., integration in job market, health & education systems)

Travel to 3rd country
Through connections
or hope of opportunities

Return home

Housing

danger
1 Flee2-5 days

If conditions allow

Schooling
for kids

shelter
2 Seek
1-2 weeks

Findinga job

Reach safety, focus on
family’s immediate needs,
find shelter

access
3 Seek
1-3 months
Ensure a stable position with temp. accommodation,
and access to medical and financial support
Source: BCG Experience & analysis

Learning
languagesettlement
4 Seek3-24 months
Secure status and become
self-sufficient, become
contributing members of
their new communities

12

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Leaving loved ones,
possessions andprevious lives behindPrepared: 27 April 2022

Needs | Nature & priority of support evolve along the refugee journey
Shorter-term needs
Priority of support
Mid

Low

1

Flee danger

2

Seek shelter3

Seek access4

Seek settlement

Humanitarianassistance & info

Humanitarian basics, flee
information & security

Shelter information, food,monitoring & protection

Travel and protection guidance

Rights & eligibilities, available
supportAdministration& legal status

Border crossing support

Travel docs. & registration

Seeking protection or asylum

Immigration

Financial aid& fundingFunds for free humanitarian aid
and needs coverageFunds for free humanitarian aid
and needs coverage

Cash support or relief

Access to financial system

Healthcare

Emergency assistance

Emergency assistanceAccess to health system

Social security & insurance

Cultural
integration

Minimizing language barriers &translation

Language & ensuringcommunity support

Community integration andperception management

Housing

Shelters

Temporary accommodation
searchLong-term housing search

Employment

Short term or temporary
employment

Upskilling & long-term
employment matchingChildcare& education

Daycare and continuity of homesystem education

Education system access& integration

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

High

Structural, longer-term needs

By now, most refugees seeking mid-term access and settlement, newcomers will require short-term assistanceSource: UNHCR; F2F interviews; BCG Analysis

13Prepared: 27 April 2022

AGENDA

Refugee crisis & journey
Detail on corporate action
Implications for leaders
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

War in Ukraine:
Refugee Crisis
and Global Update

Perspective on Refugee Crisis

Global economic impact of the war in Ukraine

14

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Many impacted stakeholders willremember your actions for decades
Companies have an ability and opportunity
to lead, contributing authentically as part ofstrategic ESG agendas
Talent pool, investors, regulators & otherstakeholders have increasing expectationsof corporate engagement
Leaders should create stability and tap into
opportunity for positive business impact
where relevant across markets and needs
Source: BCG experience & analysis

15

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

This crisis
is anothermoment of truth
for companies
to action their
purposeby acting onsocietal impact

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Five main areas for corporate support identified along the refugee journey
Evolution of medium and high priority needs along refugee journey

12Flee danger

Structural, longer-term needs

Seek shelter3

Seek access4

Seek settlement

Corporates' capacity
to support alongside
NGOs & governments

Humanitarian assistance& information

Low

Administration & legal status

Low

Financial aid & funding

High

Healthcare

High

Priority areas for corporate support
Source: BCG experience & analysis

Cultural
integration

MediumHousing

High
Employment

High

Childcare & educationHigh

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Shorter-term needs

16Prepared: 27 April 2022

Corporates have taken immediate action and can make a difference tackling
structural, longer-term challenges through strategic, scalable efforts
EXAMPLES – NON-EXHAUSTIVE

Numerousinternational
companies suchas Ikea donatedto cover criticalhumanitarianreliefHealthcare

Pharmaceuticalcompanies such as Pfizer,
Merck, Roche and others
donated free medicines

Medical providers
Medicover and Luxmed
offered free medical
assistance

Housing

Employment

Childcare& education

PepsiCo transformed
offices and warehouses
into shelters

Vodafone offered flexible
working models &relocation support

Polish educationcompany Polylino offers
free digital schoolbooks
in Ukrainian

Hilton secured free
short-term housingfor 1M hotel nights

Marks & Spencer andAldi made specificcommitments to hire
thousands of Ukrainians

Ukrainian media company
MEGOGO supported thelaunch of a digital
kindergarten forrefugee children

Source: Press releases & public news: Ikea, Pharma companies, Medicover, Luxmed, PepsiCo, Hilton, Vodafone, ALDI, Polylino, MEGOGO ; BCG Analysis & experience17

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Financial aid& fundingPrepared: 27 April 2022

Potential areas for action identified as a blueprint for corporate leaders (I/II)
EXAMPLES – NON-EXHAUSTIVE

Language & admin barriers
Potential HC capacity constraints
Mental health & immunization
challenges

Healthcare

1/3

Refugees experience mental
health issues1

36%of Ukrainians fully COVID
vaccinated2

Information asymmetry and housing
market capacity constraints

Housing

Potential bias against refugees in
the housing market
Potential concentration indisconnected/rural areas

Shorter-term action
Finance and support emergency
medical services
Provide information in Ukrainian
Facilitate access to free medical
services, medicines & devices

Convert spare corporate or officespacesInclude free or subsidized
temporary housing with jobs
Join & consolidate marketplaces

1. American Psychiatric Association. 2. The health needs of refugees from Ukraine BMJ 2022. Source: BCG Analysis & experience

Structural, longer-term action
Support mental health for employees
Establish digital health platforms
and support telemedicine
Support HC professionals training
Support vaccination campaigns

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Challenges overview

Offer subsidized long-term housing
for employees
Promote innovative construction
to expand capacity (e.g., modular
housing)18

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Potential areas for action identified as a blueprint for corporate leaders (II/II)
EXAMPLES – NON-EXHAUSTIVE

Shorter-term action

Local job market gaps indestination countries

Support Refugees in securing
necessary permissions to work

Example Hungary | Gap by education (k), 20211
74

Employment

42%

Highly-educated37%

Vocationally trained

21%

Unskilled

Direct commitments to hire
Streamline recruitment processes
and provide application support

Need for language learning andlong-term reskilling

Tailor job offers to refugee skillset

Differences & language
barriers with destination systems

Support language courses

Potential capacity constraints

Provide materials in Ukrainian

Example Poland | Foreign students (k)2Childcare& education

>x2
65

123

145

15 Mar2022

30 Mar2022

15 Apr
2022

260
Sep 22base

380

Offer childcare support

Sep 22stretchRepurpose unused facilities

1. Hungarian Central Statistical Office (2021). 2. 1. NIK report, Ministry of Education and Science of Poland. Source: BCG Analysis & experience

Structural, longer-term action
Complement job offers with long-term
housing, childcare & education support
Provide equipment & language
courses to close the technology &integration gaps
Implement structural reskilling
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Challenges overview

Develop remote schooling at scale
Provide tuition-free opportunities &support similar NGO efforts

Support professional training
19

Prepared: 27 April 2022

AGENDA

Refugee crisis & journey
Detail on corporate action
Implications for leaders
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

War in Ukraine:
Refugee Crisis
and Global Update

Perspective on Refugee Crisis

Global economic impact of the war in Ukraine

20

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Key opportunities for corporate leaders to maximize support effectivenessShort-term
response

Care for your employees by ensuring workplace safety, restructuring for longevity as needed,
and reskilling and accelerating hiring where feasible
Support your broader network, including customers & suppliers as possible & appropriate
Prioritize & allocate resources to immediate response and humanitarian needs relief
Seek authentic ways to contribute that are aligned with your purpose & capabilities
Join existing support ecosystems, partner with relevant NGOs and team with governments inyour location(s)Support refugee structural needs in Healthcare, Housing, Employment, Childcare & education;broader humanitarian implications; or eventual need to rebuild
Where possible, seek & scale solutions that create value for refugees & your businessCommunicate

Source: BCG experience & analysis

Communicate actions aligned with your purpose to engage your people and strengthen
positioning as a social impact leader

Incorporate your approach into your ESG narrative to demonstrate action on material
ESG issues, including "S" or humanitarian components, as part of integrated ESG reporting
21

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Structural,long-term
actionPrepared: 27 April 2022

AGENDA

Refugee crisis & journey
Detail on corporate action
Implications for leaders
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

War in Ukraine:
Refugee Crisis
and Global Update

Perspective on Refugee Crisis

Global economic impact of the war in Ukraine

22

Prepared: 27 April 2022

War in Ukraine evolves along several dimensions –various scenarios possible

Broader impact
Narrower impact

Duration

Weeks

Months

Years

Days

Geographic
scope &
materiality
Sectoral scope& materiality

Central & Eastern Europe

Russia &UkraineEU
GlobalE.g., Automotive, machinery

Energy, Metals,
Agrifoods
03 Mar.

Source: BCG analyses

Decades

10 Mar.

17 Mar.

24 Mar.

31 Mar.

Wholeeconomy14 Apr.

26 Apr.

Russia intensifies siege of
Mariupol and bombs Odessa~100K refugees are in process
to resettle in USA & Canada
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Interrelated
dimensions

Breadth & depth of punitive
actions on Russia continue toincrease – e.g., Alcohol, Wood,
Iron or Steel banned by UK,
Japan, etc.

23

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Summary snapshot | War in Ukraine global economic impact
Supply Chain Metrics

Global Growth Outlook

2021

World Bank

Leading FIs

2022

2022

ActualJan'22
Forecast

13 Apr – 22 Apr '22
Forecasts
Minimum
Median

4.7%

2.4%
4.2%
4.1%

-9.85%
2.8%
3.5%

RussiaEuro Zone 5.3%
Global3.9%-15.0%
2.4%
3.3%

Commodity Prices4
Commodity price (actual, $)Commodity

Deep Sea Cargo Bosporus
Straits Transits (Avg. #/day)2
Pre-War Prev. Wk Curr. Wk(4/134/19)(Nov '21) (4/6-4/12)

NorthboundSouthbound

8.9
9.6

5.4
7.0

Deep Sea Cargo Port Calls(Avg. #/day)2
ΔCWPreWar

5.6
5.6

-37%
-42%

Pre-War Prev. Wk Curr. Wk(4/144/20)

ΔCWPreWar

4.5
21.6

-91%
-6%

(Nov '21) (4/7-4/13)

UkraineRussiaBaltic Dry Index(Daily Avg)3

0.0
19.1

0.4
20.4

Pre-War Prev. Wk Curr. Wk(4/154/21)(Nov '21) (4/8-4/14)

BDI3 2780

Apr 21 '22

ChangeCrude Oil ($/bbl)

79.0

108.0

+37%

Gas ($/MWh)

80.4

100.1

+24%

Coal ($/t)

157.5

331.1

+110%

Wheat (€/bu)

240.0

351.8

+47%

Rapeseed (€/t)

728.5

855.3

+17%

Nickel ($/t)

20,430.0

33,765.0+65%

Palladium ($/oz)

1,826.0

2,420.2

+33%

2165

-22%

Sanctions & Policy Actions
Cumulative # WW Sanctions in-place5 (∆ since previous)
Updates since 14 April(+553)• CA sanctions Russian Central Bank Governor(+27)• JP bans imports of alcohol, wood, key machine parts(+84)• UK bans imports of iron and steel
540
3,195
3,023
3,748
393
• Russia declares bankruptcy moratorium to protect companies
Individuals

Jan 3 '22

2065

ΔCWPreWar

Companies

Other entities

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

GDP Forecasts1

Corporate Actions in Russia Market
Based on sample of +830 companies6(+122)
(+10)

386

72
Exit

Suspend operations

(+6)

(+5)

(+21)

(+80)

80

21

103

174

Halt Shippment /Supply

Curtail Access to Capital

Suspend New
Investment / Partnership

Remain in Russia withsignificant exposure

1. GDP forecasts from World Bank and FIs per Bloomberg database (5-16 FIs per forecast period) 2. Deep Sea Cargo: oil tankers MR & up, bulkcarriers Panamax & up, containerships 3,000+ TEU, VLGCs, LNG carriers 60,000+ cbm & PCTCs 6,000+ ceu. Clarksons Research haveretrospectively adjusted the raw data for Deep Sea Cargo Port Calls. Clarksons Research (https://www.clarksons.com/) Clarkson Research Services Limited (“Clarksons Research”). © Clarksons Research 2021. All rights in and to Clarksons Research services, information and data(“Information”) are reserved to and owned by Clarksons Research. Clarksons Research, its group companies and licensors accept no liability for any errors or omissions in any Information or for any loss or damage howsoever arising. No party may rely on any Information contained in thiscommunication. Please also see the disclaimer at https://www.clarksons.net/Portal/disclaimer, which also applies. No further distribution of any Information is permitted without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Clarksons Research does not promote, sponsor or endorse thecontent of this communication. 3. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND; Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is index of avg price paid for transport of dry bulk mat'ls across 20+ routes 4. S&P Capital IQ 5. Total sanctioned actions, incl. duplication. Source: corrective.org 6. Yale Chief Exec
Leadership Inst.. Numbers in parenthesis () indicates increase /decrease since last update. Where there is a decrease this is because reclassification due to definitions, and company action recategorization from one to another. Note: BCG does not provide legal or regulatory advice

24Prepared: 27 April 2022

Leading Financial Institutions predicting major decline in Russia GDP
vs. World Bank Jan forecast
GDP Growth (%), Selected Regions, 2021A – 2023F
Russia6Eurozone

Global

5.3

4.7

4.2

4

2.8

2.4
2

3.9

4.1

2.4

2.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

1.7

0

-1.75

-2
-4

-8

Recent median
GDP growth
projections
remain around-10%

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-6

--3.5

-9.85

-10
-12
-14
-16

--15.0
Actual2021

Jan

22 Apr
2022F

22 Apr2023F

Note: 13 April - 22 April forecast of 11 FIs for Russia, 16 FIs for Eurozone, 5 FIs for Global
Sources: World Bank; Bloomberg; BCG Analysis

Actual2021

Jan

22 Apr2022F
2021 Actual

22 AprActual

2023F

2021

World Bank (Jan 2022)

Jan

22 Apr
2022F

22 Apr2023F

Median/Min, Leading FIs (Apr 2022)

25

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Inflation of key commodities, with recent price correction

150

Crude oil (Brent, $/bbl.)

Natural gas – (TTF, €/MWH)

Conflict108

Coal (Newcastle, $/Ton)

Conflict
440

Max '22227

Max '22

200

500

331

250
50

100

100

0
19-01-01

20-01-01

21-01-01

Wheat (MATIF, €/bu.)
500

019-01-01

22-01-01

Conflict397

352

Max '22

Food

300

128

Max '22100

Hydrocarbons

Conflict

250

1,000

21-01-01

20-01-01

Rapeseed (MATIF, €/Ton)22-01-01

20-01-01

21-01-01

22-01-01

Conflict891

Max '22750

019-01-01

855

500

0
19-01-01
5,000

20-01-01

21-01-01

Palladium(NYMEX, $/troy oz.)22-01-01

Conflict

Nickel (LME, $/Ton)22-01-01

Conflict
46,52832,765

2,980

2,500

0
19-01-01

50,00021-01-01

20-01-01

Max '22

Max '22

Metals019-01-01

2,420 25,000

20-01-01

21-01-01

Source: S&P Capital IQ,21 April 22; BCG Analysis

22-01-01

0
19-01-01

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

250

LME suspends
nickel trading
20-01-01

21-01-01

22-01-0126

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Key sanctions and policy actions currently in place• Coordinated policy/sanctions programs
Limiting SWIFT access, removing "MFN" status, sanctioning gold1
Imposing/enforcing sanctions and export controls via global task force
Expelling diplomats, closing embassies/consulates
Limiting or banning energy and coal imports
Closing EU border crossings and ports• CA sanctions Russian Central Bank Governor• JP bans imports of alcohol, wood, key machine parts• UK bans imports of iron and steel• Bans "unfriendly" officials, Facebook and Instagram• Seeks new buyers for oil and gas, demands payment in rubles rather than USD• Seizes assets and luxury items• Breaks trademark compliance rules on imports• Declares bankruptcy moratorium to protect companies declares bankruptcy
moratorium to protect companies• Have asked for hostilities to cease• China government statements focus on peacemaking, mediation• China (& RU) voted against motion to condemn at ICJ2 in The Hague• China & India abstained at 25 Feb UN Security Council vote against invasion• Indonesia in difficult position, as 2022 G20 hostNew
1. Intended to prevent selling gold reserves to finance war 2. International Court of Justice;
Source: Government websites; Media reports; BCG analysis. Note: BCG does not provide legal or regulatory advice

Current sanction actions by country and target
Sanction actions3 in-place

1080
884

744

0
Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Large EMs

Russia"Western" Allies

Current sanctions & policy actions (Key examples)

Sanction targets3 / ∆ since last update
+ 553

+ 84

+ 27

3,748

393

540

Individuals

Companies

Other entities

3. Total sanction actions, includes duplication.
Source: www.correctiv.org

27

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Recent developments beyond imposed sanctions"Western" Allies

RussiaLarge emerging markets

Germany allows heavy weaponry exports to Ukraine1

Russia’s foreign minister claims NATO engaged in
the “essence of a proxy war”8South-African president urged for an end to
the war, citing concerns over food security
since Ukraine is a major food exporter toAfrica15

Finland's parliament has started the debate on NATOmembership application3

Russia warns Poland of potential gas supply
cuts9
The Russian army is closing in on Mariupol as
Ukrainian forces are holding out10

EU is considering the use of frozen Russian assets tofinance the reconstruction of Ukraine4

Russia begins bombing of Odessa11

EU is working to secure oil supply from 3rd countries as
it considers a ban on Russian oil5

Russia refuses ceasefire for Orthodox Easter
holydays12

US/UK/Canada finance ministers walk out of G20 andWorld Bank-IMF meetings in condemnation of
Russia6

Russia's Black Sea flagship sunk after
sustaining heavy damage, a first in Europe
since WWII13

G7 in partnership with international community
pledged an additional $24B in aid to Ukraine7

India scaled up wheat exports to make up
for war related shortages and avert a global
food crisis16
China state-run media criticizes US and NATOfor cheering Ukraine up to fight a 10-year
war17
Brazil's Economy Minister condemns war in
Ukraine but refuses to take economic
sanctions on Russia18

Russia asked for Brazil's support to prevent its
expulsion from IMF and World Bank14

1. Financial Times; 2. CNN; 3.Bloomberg; 4. DW; 5. Reuters; 6. Reuters, Bloomberg; 7. Reuters; 8. Reuters; 9. Reuters; 10. NY Times; 11. DW; 12. ABC; 13. PBS; 14. CNN; 15. Aljazeera; 16. VOA; 17. Global Times;
18. Reuters. Note: BCG does not provide legal or regulatory advice

28

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

US president announced a new program to welcome up
to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees2

Prepared: 27 April 2022

Teams across BCG are monitoring impact
Social Impact Practice Area

Nikolaus LangManaging Director & Senior Partner
Practice Area Leader, Global Advantage
E: Lang.Nikolaus@bcg.com

Rich Hutchinson
Managing Director & Senior Partner
Global Practice Area Leader, Social Impact
E: Hutchinson.Rich@bcg.com

Oliver DanyManaging Director & Senior Partner
Financial Institutions and Social Impact
E: Dany.Oliver@bcg.com

Marc Gilbert
Managing Director & Senior Partner
Global Lead, Geopolitics & Trade Impact
E: Gilbert.Marc@bcg.com

Mathieu Lamiaux
Managing Director & Senior Partner
Global Health Practice leader in Europe & Africa
E: Lamiaux.Mathieu@bcg.com

James BrindleyManaging Director & Partner
Social Impact and Prague Office Leader
E: Brindley.James@bcg.com

Michael McAdoo
Partner & Director
Global Trade & Investment
E: McAdoo.Michael@bcg.com

Carrie Perzanowski
Global Practice Senior Director, Social Impact
E: Perzanowski.Carrie@bcg.com

Marcin Kotlarek
Partner & Director
Retail Banking and Social Impact
E: Kotlarek.Marcin@bcg.com

Kasey Maggard
Global Practice Management Director
E: Maggard.Kasey@bcg.com

László Juhász
Managing Director & Senior Partner
Social Impact and Budapest Office Leader
E: Juhasz.Laszlo@bcg.com

Michaela Novakov
Principal
Culture Change and Social Impact
E: Novakov.Michaela@bcg.com

Ken Carlstedt
Associate Director
Global Trade Risk & Compliance
E: Carlstedt.Ken@bcg.com

Anna Avdeitchikova
Managing Director & Partner
Mobility & Logistics and Social Impact
E: Avdeitchikova.Anna@bcg.com

Akos Turny
Project Leader
Social Impact
E: Turny.Akos@bcg.com

Leandro J. Urbano
Consultant
E: Urbano.Leandro@bcg.com

Dan Sack
Managing Director & Partner
BCG Gamma
E: Sack.Dan@bcg.com

Philpp Eulenberg
Lead Data Scientist
BCG Gamma
E: Eulenberg.Philipp@bcg.com

Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Global Advantage Practice Area

29

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