Executive
Perspectives

How to end the global
pandemic in 2022
May 2021

Objectives of this document

We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is first andforemost a societal crisis, threatening lives and the wellbeingof our global community. Society now, more than ever, needs
to collaborate to protect people’s lives and health, focus on ending
the pandemic, and search for longer-term management solutions

Leaders need to drive an integrated
response to navigate the crisis
It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business leaders
to navigate through this crisis. A complex interplay of epidemic
progression, societal response, government action, sector impact,
and company action is occurring. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate the crisis in
their own environments. It encourages thinking across the multiple
time horizons over which we see the crisis manifest
2

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

BCG Executive
Perspectives

COVID-19 is a global societal crisis

The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged economic
impact, government policies, and business and public responses

Fight

FutureTypically, in the initial phase after a pandemic
outbreak, the goal is to urgently limit the numberof new cases, especially critical care

Finding paths to collectively fight the virus,
restart the economy, and support society inbalancing lives and livelihood

Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/ herd
immunity and treatment within sustainable medical
capacities possible

Social distancing (lockdown) and partial businessclosures lead to economic recession with a large
employment impact

Increasing economic activity with recovering GDP,
some business reopenings, and social distancing
on a sustainable level

Reactivated economy with strong businessrebound and job growth, social restrictions limited orcompletely suspended

1. Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
2. Government policies and economic stimulus
3. Economic scenarios
4. Business engagement and response
5. Public engagement and response

All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG

3

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Flatten“No one is safe until everyone is safe”
Stark vaccine inequity

Delayed vaccine rollouts

Rapidly spreading variants

100X+

2.7B

<6 mo.

discrepancy invaccination rates
between high- and lowincome countries

people in countries that
can take several years tofinish initial round of
vaccination, which canlead to new variants

time taken for variant
B.1.1.7 to spread from 1
to 120 countries“Ending the pandemic as quickly as possible will take a global effort…
it's about one world, protected.” - from COVAX
1. COVAX is led by UNICEF, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, WHO, and others
Source: World Health Organization, World Bank, Gavi, CDC, press search, BCG

4

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0- from COVAX1, a global health initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccinesGlobal cooperation and action can end the pandemic
in 2022 instead of 2024

1.
2.

3.

Dire situation
globally
Short term:
Actions to
end global
pandemic by2022
Longer term:
Strengthen
health systems

1
2

Based on existing plans, will take until 2024 to emerge from pandemic globally

1

US to have excess vaccine supply first; use COVAX1 to protect most vulnerable 20%

2Enough supply for global population by end of 2021; ensure equitable distribution

3

Private sector and external organizations can help set up throughput infrastructure

4

Improve vaccine equity within nations by reducing vaccine hesitancy

5

Act quickly to suppress dangerous variants that can worsen pandemic globally

Global COVID cases are peaking, resurging in areas like India and South America

COVID-19 will remain a threat over the longer term; global security dependent onstronger global health infrastructure for ongoing management (e.g., boosters)

1. COVAX is a global initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines, led by UNICEF, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, WHO, and others
Source: Gavi, BCG

5

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Summary

AGENDA

Current COVID trends and trajectory
Actions needed to end pandemic next year andmanage longer term

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

6

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BCG Executive
Perspectives

Ending the global pandemic by 2022

Vaccine rollout challenges exacerbated by global COVID-19 resurges,
pushing death toll past 3M worldwide

April 24, 2021

April 17, 2021

April 15, 2021

India set global record for daily new
COVID-19 cases – over 400K, andreported 3.7K deaths, its highest yet

US ends 10-day J&J vaccine pause overrare blood clots; shots to resume
immediately

COVID death toll surpasses 3M
worldwide as new hotspots emerge in
Asia, Eastern Europe, and LatAm

New waves of COVID infections could
derail economic recovery in subSaharan Africa

April 26, 2021

April 20, 2021

April 15, 2021

April 22, 2021

May 2, 2021

US plans to share up to 60M doses of
AstraZeneca's COVID vaccine withother countries (India likely to be 1)

If no change in current vaccine
enthusiasm in US, shift from excess
demand to supply is in ~15 days

Merck to continue tests of antiCOVID pill, but stop trial in
hospitalized patients

China administers 200M vaccine doses
domestically, ramping up efforts

7

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As of 02 May 2021

Resurgence of COVID in India has led to a new peak in recorded
cases since the onset of the global pandemic
Epidemic Progression

As of 02 May 2021

1,000,000
Crisis in India
driving
massive
surge
South
in
new
cases
America

800,000

600,000# of confirmed cases

Asia1

North
America

400,000

AfricaSouth America
North
America
North America
Africa200,000

0

154M

19.5M
# of active cases

Europe
Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Month-onmonth growth ~215% ~15% ~50% ~60% ~10% ~10% ~40% ~45% ~10% ~0% ~(40%) ~20%of new cases2
1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean); 2. Calculated as monthly as average of daily as compared
To previous month; Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; press search; BCG

3.2M# of fatalities

8

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Key observations

Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)

Cases are still high around the world even as vaccine rollout is underway;
resurgences in countries like India have had devastating impacts
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people1,2
As of 02 May 2021

India and South America
India: Record cases and shortage of critical supplies
Record2 of ~402,0003 daily COVID-cases, bringing total cases to
19 million. New variant B.1.617 and variant B.1.1.7 from the
UK are spreading quickly and causing concern. Hospitals haveshortage of beds and oxygen, leading to wave of deaths

Cases per million
No data

0-10

10-100100-250250+South America: New surges and vaccination difficulties
Record spikes across Latin America. Vaccine shortages andthroughput issues, as COVAX4 has faced delays. P.1 variant found
to reduce vaccine efficacy. Countries like Honduras havevaccinated <1% of the population

1. 1. 7-day rolling average shown. 2. The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases due to limited testing; 3. As of 1 May 2021. 4. COVAX is led by UNICEF, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, WHO, and others
Source: Press search, Our World in Data

9

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1.1

Based on current plans, it will take until 2024 to emerge from the pandemic,
as some lower-income countries are severely behind in vaccination
Current projection of timing to vaccinate population1

5 vaccine rollout archetypes
Q2‘21

Q3 ‘21Q3 - Q4‘21

China is considered a "Crush & Contain" country, but due to the size and spreadof population, it is expected to complete vaccination by H1 2022

Q3 '21 H1 '22

Rollout Leaders can likely begin redistribution in Q2 2021
and High-income Laggards and Crush & Contain Countries
can follow in Q3 & Q4 2021
Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

H1 20222022 - 2024

'22 - '24

1 Rollout Leaders – 6% of global population (0.5B)
Early success in vaccine rollout• E.g., Israel, US, UK, Chile

2 High-income Laggards – 6% (0.5B)

Sufficient contracts, face manufacturing delays• E.g., European Union2 , Canada

3 Crush & Contain Countries – 21% (1.6B)

Successfully contained COVID, conservative approach
to rollout• E.g., Australia, Japan, South Korea

4 Leading LMICs2 – 32% (2.5B)

Combination of self-reliant manufacturers or countries
that have contracted doses by end of year
• E.g., Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India3

5 Supply-starved LMICs2 – 35% (2.7B)

Reliant upon COVAX and African Union distributions• E.g., Pakistan, Kenya, Paraguay

No data
1. Based on country reported plans, where vaccination completion threshold can vary from ~60-80% vaccination of either the adult or full population. Earlier timelines likely do not include children. 2. Low- and middle-income countries,
defined as countries with a GNI per capita of <$12,536 per year (World Bank). 3. Includes support from COVAX
Source: COVAX, World Bank 2021 population, press search, BCG

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1.2

US can donate doses as early as June 2021 to help bolster
COVAX supply or directly support global hot spots
Forecast cumulative doses in 2021 (B)US will be the first high-income
country with excess vaccine supply.
Redistribution from US can start inJune 2021, on top of 60 million
AstraZeneca doses already committed1
Donations can help COVAX reach goal
to cover vulnerable groups and healthcare workers in LMICs2 (~20% of
population) earlier in Q4 20213 orbilaterally vaccinate in global hot spots

0.4
0.1
By Jun (Q2)

COVAX

What is COVAX and why use it?
Ambition of COVAX, partnershipamong CEPI5, Gavi6, UNICEF, andWHO, is to create a platform toredistribute donated excess vaccine
doses, accelerating equity goals

0.6

U.S. secured excess4

By Sept (Q3)•
Benefits ofredistribution
via COVAX••

By Dec (Q4)

Established legal frameworks forindemnity for donors and manufacturers
Multi-country donations and equitableallocation
Coordinated shipping on vaccines andancillary supplies

1. AstraZeneca not yet approved for use in US. 2. Low- and middle-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capita of <$12,536 per year (World Bank). 3. Based on ~20%
COVAX target to cover the most vulnerable populations within LMICs by December 2021, assuming COVAX supply under negotiation becomes secured (~2B doses total); 4. Not part of
COVAX secured supply; secured excess doses beyond doses needed for US 12+ population (285M), assuming 2 doses per person. 5. Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. 6.
Vaccine alliance, a public-private global health partnership
Source: UNICEF COVID-19 vaccine supply agreements (April 2021), Gavi (COVAX), World Bank, AP, press search, BCG analysis

Keytakeaways

US can help COVAX,
expedite year-end
vaccination goal by~one to two months
India crisis will restrict
donated doses to
COVAX as it needs tokeep doses fordomestic populations

COVAX can help
redistribute donateddoses through its
established effective
mechanisms
11

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US excess vaccine doses

2.1

Vaccine supply expected to surpass global population in
2021, but critical to ensure equitable distribution

Total global vaccine production

Vaccine production forecasts in 2021 show the world will have a supply excess1(B doses)
Approved

22.5

Awaiting regulatory approval
In clinical trial, preclinical, or discovery

8.1
2.2

2.6

8.1
2.2

0.4

3.4

12.2

5.8
Nonreplicating
viral vector

RNA

InactivatedProteinsubunit

Under Candidates Total 2021
preregulatory
Doses
regulatory
review
review

1. Based on manufacturer capacity. 2. Assuming all vaccine candidates require 2-doses. 3. Intellectual property, such as patents
Source: UNICEF Reported Global COVID-19 Vaccine Production Capacity 4/30/2021, press searchWill be enoughsupply in 2021
to cover world
population withtwo doses2 andvast majority
with anotherone-doseboosterKeytakeaways

As countries
accumulate excess
supply, opportunity
to immediately
redistribute doses tolower-income nations

Removing vaccine IP3protections will likely
slow down process
due to quality risks,delayed production
from necessary
startup time, anddistractions fromthe current sufficient
production plan
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Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

2.2

Throughput challenges

While both LMICs1 and HICs2 face throughput challenges, LMICs mayneed additional external and private sector support to bolster resources

1

Poor coordination causing delays
and eroding public trust

4

Lack of health infrastructure,including trained providers

2

Lack of ancillary supplies(e.g., needles) and waste disposal

5

Absence of vaccine data systems,
especially for two-dose series

3

Spoilage from inadequate cold chain
or unprepared providers

6

Unanticipated complications(e.g., mix-ups, safety)

For LMICs

Cost per dose

Vaccine~$4-73

International delivery~$0.9

Domestic delivery~$1.7

Total cost~$6.6-9.6

Estimated ~$14B4 in support needed for domestic

delivery (e.g., direct administration costs, cold chain,training and hiring) to vaccinate LMICs
Combination of funding from COVAX, major global
financial institutions (e.g., World Bank), andprivate sector will be needed to meet urgent need

Examples:Private sector

Private sector inIndonesia can run its
own COVID-19
vaccination programsin parallel to public
Philippines planning touse private sector cold
chain, sites, andvaccinators
Vaccine throughput in
India has ramped up
significantly in 2021.
~25-30% of total doses
have been
administered in theprivate sector(~$13-19 for 2 doses)
1.Low- and middle-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capita of <$12,536 per year (World Bank). 2. High-income countries that exceed the LMIC threshold.
3. Based on low-end ranges of ~$3-4 per dose and higher-end range of standard UNICEF cost estimate for all LMICs. 4. Based on vaccination of ~80% of LMIC populations,assuming 2 doses each (~8.4B doses); Source: WHO, Gavi, UNICEF, press search, BCG

13

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Private sector and external organizations areneeded to accelerate throughput in LMICs

Delivery costs

2.3

Vaccine hesitancy drives further inequity, especiallyamong disadvantaged groups; education is the best tool
Hesitancy drives further vaccine inequity. Top
three hesitant groups across countries areminority, low-income, and rural
populations

HICs2

Vaccine hesitancy exists across all countries, independent of national income level
FranceUnited StatesJapan
Germany
Australia
CanadaSouth Korea
Spain
Italy
United Kingdom

LMICs1

Global vaccine hesitancy

Top two drivers for vaccine hesitancy are
vaccine side effects/safety and concerns
over speed of regulatory approvals

RussiaSouth Africa
China
MexicoBrazil

59%
65%

41%
35%

74%
74%
78%
79%
80%
82%
85%
87%

42%

26%
26%
22%
21%
20%
18%
15%
13%

58%
64%

36%
80%
82%
89%

Agree to receive vaccine if available

20%
18%
11%
Hesitant to receive vaccine if available

Note: Question asked was "“If a vaccine for COVID-19 were available to me, I would get it?”
1.Low- and middle-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capita of <$12,536 per year (World Bank). 2. High-income countries that exceed the LMIC threshold.
3. Distribution and administration for AstraZeneca in EU was paused in March 2021 and Johnson & Johnson in US was paused in April 2021
Source: Ipsos and World Economic Forum survey, Feb 2021; press search; BCG analysis

Keytakeaways

Coordinated andswift global
messaging isnecessary as EU andUS regulators
investigate rare casesof blood clotting after
taking vaccines3

Educating the publicagainst misinformationis the best tool tocombat hesitancy,
especially throughtargeted outreach totrusted members ofspecific communities athigher risk

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2.4

Vaccine equity must be an urgent global priority tosuppress variants, which can worsen global pandemic

Immune escape

Variants caused by mutations may lower vaccine effectiveness…
•

Variants have emerged around the world
with varying impacts1 on vaccine
effectiveness and antibody resistance•

Variants that escapeimmunity will continue
to emerge andthreaten the globe
anywhere there arehigh volumes of cases,
such as amid current
surge in India

Examples include B.1.351 first detected inSouth Africa, P.1 in Brazil, and B.1427 in
California… and can spread rapidly across the globe
Highly transmissible

B.1.1.7 variant in Sept. 2020

Key
takeaways

B.1.1.7 variant in March 2021 (120 countries)

EnglandFound to be 70% more transmissible
than existing variants at the time

Vaccine equity mustalso be a global priority
to keep variants fromspreading. B.1.1.7
rapidly spread to worldin <6 months

B.1.1.7 is
now thedominant
strain in
the US
Not reported

Unverified

Verified

1. Trials of Novavax, Janssen, and AstraZeneca in South Africa suggest the B.1.351 variant can escape some immunity and may not stop infections but should still offer protection
against severe and life-threatening COVID-19 illness. In April 2021, Pfizer reported 91% efficacy against B.1.351 variant versus 95% in its original trial. Source: CDC, BBC, CNBC,
The Wire, Reuters

15

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2.5

3

COVID-19 will likely stay longer term, requiring sustained globalchanges to strengthen health care infrastructure and protect vulnerable

1

Aggressively vaccinate now to crush
COVID and slow the proliferation of variants

5

Ensure vaccine delivery infrastructure
is ready for future campaigns andmaintain prioritization by health risk

2

Keep mitigation measures on to ramp up
and down rapidly, especially for nonvaccinated populations

6

3

Unlock capacity for immediate andongoing vaccine development andmanufacturing; create options to buy
doses and ancillaries for future campaigns

Build out genomic monitoring ofvariants for rapid identification andresponse to new variants

7

Continue global sharing of information
and resources while activating local
communities with education on virus
and treatments

4

Invest in ongoing vaccine innovationand establish accelerated regulatory
approvals for upcoming modified or
booster vaccines

16

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Endemic management actions

Seven "no-regrets" moves for all countries to build an equitable vaccine future

AGENDA

Current COVID trends and trajectory
Actions needed to end pandemic next year andmanage longer term

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business impact

17

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BCG Executive
Perspectives

Ending the global pandemic by 2022

Summary dashboard
As of 02 May 2021

Epidemic Progression

Consumer Activity

Business Impact

Global epidemic snapshot

Mobility

Stock market performance

154M

19.5M

3.2M

1.2B

# of
cases

# of
active cases# offatalities

Vaccine doses
administered

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Americas

1.4x

1.1x

0.6x

1.0x

Europe

0.8x

1.0x

0.7x

1.3x

Asia3

1.0x

0.8x

0.9x

1.7x

Economic Impact
IMF4 (Apr '21)

GDP forecasts (YoY%)
2021
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

0 2

4 6
4.4%

Banks58 10 12 14 16 18 20

6.4%
3.3%
8.4%
12.5%

Mobility6(month vs.
Jan '20)

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking7,8 (YoY)

Jan

Feb

Mar

US

-27%

-26%

-18%

Europe

-37%

--31%

Japan

-22%

-17%

Month end vs. 02 Jan '20

Jan

Feb

Mar

S&P500

14%

17%

22%

-26%

FTSE100

-16%

-15%

-12%

-12%

CHN SSE

13%

14%

12%

Volatility Index (S&P500)12

2.7x

2.2x

1.6x

US

2%

2%

France

0%

3%

China

56%

26%

34%

US

59

59

59

Germany

57

61

67

China

51

51

52

Steel production (YoY)15

8%

5%

15%

US

-54%

-37%

17%

UK

-78%

-78%

-47%

China

-37%

15%

127%

Sales
Retailgoods sales9(excl. auto &
fuel, YoY)

US

10%

6%

Europe10-3%-1%Passenger
vehiclesales11(YoY)

US

-3%

-13%

61%

Germany

-31%

-19%

36%

China

28%

397%

75%

34%

China

International trade
Trade value13(YoY)

Industrial production
34%

Purchasing
manager’s
index14(base = 50)

1. Calculated as 7-day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. IMF Apr 2021 forecast; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America;
Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to Mar 01 2021; For India's GDP forecast, World Bank's 2020 forecast from 08 June provides the upper bound of the forecast range; 6. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit, retail & recreation, and grocery & pharmacy and compared to abaseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 7. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 8. As of 01 Mar 2021; 9. Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, generalmerchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Europe includes 27 countries currently in EU; 11. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales data for over same month in previous year; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago
Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous year period; EU trade values between EU and all outside countries 14.
PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 15. Data corresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Source: JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, WHO, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Google Mobility, US Census Bureau, Eurostat, PRC National
Bureau of Statistics, ACEA actuals, Marklines, ARC ticketing data, STR, Statista, CBOE, OECD, BEA, GACC (customs) China, ONS, BCG

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To be updated in forthcoming editions

COVID-19 has broad geographic reach today with countries
at different stages in their fightNon-exhaustive

Continuation

Resurgence

Crush and contain

Curve was never quite flattened;
ongoing battle

Curve was flattened, but saw one
or more resurgences

Curve was flattened and casecounts continue to remain low

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

Daily new confirmed cases per million1

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Mar

Jun
Argentina

Sep

Dec

Mar Apr '21

BrazilUAE

US

1. Data shown as 7 day rolling average of daily new cases per million
Source: Our World in Data; BCG

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

FranceGermany

Switzerland

UK

Mar Apr '21
Spain

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Australia

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

Mar Apr '21

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Epidemic Progression

As of 19 Apr 2021

Many large economies expected to continue recovery,
and reach 2019 GDP levels between 2021 and 2022
Economic Impact

As of 22 Apr 2021

GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)
US

Europe

China

Japan

India1

117.1
115.8

116
113.0

112

110.3

108
103.8

100

102.7
99.8
98.6

96

96.5
96.4

113.3

110.9
110.1

110.8

108.4

106.3

104

116.8

107.2

104.6
103.1

101.3

100.6

99.3

99.8
99.1

99.6
98.3
97.1
96.8

97.5
96.2
95.9

102.3

100.7
99.3

100.2
98.4

97.5

95.3

95.2
94.7

93.4

92

103.6

103.1

102.3
102.0

92.0

92.6

90.4

88

2021 forecast
vs 2019

2019

2020

2021

2022

99-104%2019 GDP levels (Index)

2019

2020

2021

2022

96-99%
Forecast IMF (Apr 6, 2021)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

108-113%
Forecast World Bank (Jan 5, 2021)

2020

2021

2022

2019

97-100%

2020

2021

2022

98-107%

Forecast range from leading banks2

Note: As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to 01 Mar 2021, YoY forecasts 2020 values are estimated actual GDP; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range
from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG

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121.0

Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest;
public transit mobility remains lower in most countries
Economic Impact

As of 22 Apr 2021

Workplace1, public transit2, and retail and recreation3 mobility compared with baseline of January 2020 to February 2020

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks,
museums, libraries and cinemas; 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates for larger lockdowns; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks during
Feb 15 2020–Feb 28 2021); Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 01 Mar 2020; Press search; BCG

21

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar
Mar
Mar

Feb

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Lockdown started4

Apr

Retail and recreation

Mar

Workplace mobility

Japan

Lockdown easing4
Feb

Public transit mobility

Apr

Sweden

Feb

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

South Korea

Apr

Mar

Feb

Italy

Feb

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Australia

GermanyUSManufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates continued
positive momentum
Economic Impact

As of 23 Apr 2021

Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis
China1

Neutrallevel = 50

1

3

3

3

7

7

9

9

9

Neutrallevel = 50

0

-2
-14

1
-5

-10

-16 -13

2

6

8

8

8

7 11

17

Neutrallevel = 50

2

3

3

4

2

3

5

7 10

-5 -3

1

5 5
1 3 3 3
-6 -8 -9 -7 -3-19

Sweden-2 0

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Japan

Neutrallevel = 50

Lockdown easing

1

Neutrallevel = 50

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Lockdown started

1

2

1

South Korea

-10

> 0%

1

2

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Neutrallevel = 50

-14% to 0%

1

2
1

-5

Italy

-29% to -15%

1

2

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar≤ -30%

2

2-7-13 -10

4

6

9 10

15 13 12 14-2

Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Neutrallevel = 50

1

0
-5

-8

-5

-3 -2 -1 -1

3

-0.2

-12 -10Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding,staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment; Source: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan
Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; EIKON

22

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Germany

USMonthly passenger vehicle sales showpromising upward trends
Economic Impact

As of 22 Apr 2021

Monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, YOY % change vs. past year
China2
12%
6% 28%
1% 11% 9% 14% 9% 10% 11%

-19%

Italy

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov
Nov

Oct

Mar

Feb

Jan

7% 10% 7% 1% 6%

Dec

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Jun

-13%
-15%
-29% -23% -15%
-45%
May

-9%
-35%

Dec

Nov

-6% -14%

9%

Nov

29%

Mar

26%

Oct

Sep

Aug

July

Jun

May

Apr

Lockdown easing-7% -20%-12%-26%-38% -50%
Mar

Lockdown started

-4%

Japan
6%

> 0%

29%

-6%

86%

-14% to 0%

0% 7%

Sep

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Mar3

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Sweden

21%

Mar

9%
-2%

July

Jun

May

Apr

17%

Feb

12% 13% 14%

Jan

-11%
-14%

Dec

-7% -14%-8%-84% -97%-29% to -15%

Oct

Sep

47%

Aug

-23%
-48%

Mar

Aug

July

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

South Korea4
2% 9% 1%

≤ -30%

75%

-45%
Mar

Jan

-31%

Feb

-4% -3%

Nov

-20%

Aug

-5%

July

Jun

May

Apr

-32%
-38%
-61% -49%
Mar

Mar

Feb

Dec

Nov

Oct

Jan

-3% -13%

-14%

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

-12% -20%
-30%
-38%
-26%
-47%

6%

Oct

6% 1%

397%

36%

10%

8%

Dec

61%

1. Passenger vehicle sales includes data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, mini trucks, light trucks, and vans; 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high tiercities and extended NEV subsidies; 3. Not yet available. 4. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching newmodels and the increased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into'camping cars'. Source: Marklines; BCG

23

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Germany

Sep

USRetail goods sales (excluding auto and fuel) have grown compared
to pre-COVID-19 levels in most countries
Economic Impact

As of 26 Apr 2021
Growth of retail goods sales (excluding auto and fuel)1, YOY % change vs same month past year

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan
'21

Feb
'21

Mar
'213

US

1%

-15%

-4%

3%

4%

5%

7%

6%

5%

2%

10%

6%

-

UK2

-4%

-18% -10%

1%

3%

4%

6%

8%

5%

6%

-4%

-2%

8%

Italy

-18% -27% -11%

-1%

-11%

1%

0%

1%

-7%

-6%

-8%

-3%

-

Sweden

2%

-3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

5%

0%

3%

4%

-

Belgium

-1%

-8%

5%

7%

1%

14%

5%

8%

-3%

5%

7%

11%

-

China3

-12%

-6%

-1%

2%

-2%

-1%

2%

1%

4%

4%

Japan

1%

-6%

-2%

9%

7%

7%

-1%

12%

8%

6%

-29% to -15%34%3%-14% to 0%

34%

5%

-

Retail goods sales haverebounded with YoY growthseen in most countries
US has seen consistent retailsales growth since mid 2020
China has seen very strong
retail growth in 2021 whencomparing with YoY earlymonths of 2020 when it hadstrict lockdowns
Some European countries haveseen retail sales dips coinciding
with second waves ofcases/lockdown> 0%

1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; country-specific categorization; 2. UK figures includes total retailsales excluding automotive fuels sourced from Office for National Statistics United Kingdom as data is no longer reported in Eurostat after Brexit 3. For China, combined
value of Jan & Feb is available; 3. Only China data is currently available for March 2021
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Office for National Statistics United Kingdom; Ministry of Economy Japan

24

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Retail goods sales include online and offline sales and comprise food and beverages, apparel, cosmetics andpersonal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel, and food services

DE-AVERAGED VIEW

Retail store sales in China have rebounded across categories;
apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries

Economic Impact

As of 26 Apr 2021

Food and beverage stores

Personal care and cosmetics stores
Jan Feb Mar'21 '21 '21
5% 6% 5%-USJan Feb Mar'21 '21 '21
15% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 11% 11% -US-8% -1% 4%

UK

8%

3%

4%

4%

7%

4%

5%

7%

0%

UK2

-30% -5% -1% 1% 15% 14% 3%

Italy

1% -1% -2% 2%

1%

2%

3%

3%

2%

0%

-

Italy

-13% -9% -5% -1% -2% -2% -2% -12% -12% -11%-

-5% 3%-May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7%

4%

Sweden

4%

5%

4%

4%

-

-

-

-

0% 1% 0%Belgium 12% 5% 6%
China1 11% 11% 7%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

-

Sweden

6%
2%

4%

6%

2%

5%

6%

6%

-

5%

5%

9%

9%

9%

Belgium -12% -4% 2% 2% 2% 9% -2% -3% -3% -1% 41%
43%
China1 13% 21% 9% 22% 16% 20% 32% 9%

Japan

2%

2%

4%

0% -1% 0%

-

Japan

2%

3%

1%

13%
2%

Apparel stores3-3% 3%

1%

1%

2%

3%

0%

1%

0% -3% 2%

2% -7% 3% -1% 1% -1% -5%-Home appliance stores4
US

Jan Feb Mar'21 '21 '21-42% -20% -6% -4% -7% -5% -10% -16% -3% -4% --62% -35% -24% -16% -14% -13% -32% -15% -47% -53% -12%UK

-31% -1% 10% 12% 10% 16% 15% 14% -7% 7% 23%-44% -18% -41% -3% -5% -7% -44% -26% -41% -12%

-

Italy

-15% 2%

1%-

Sweden -31% -22% -22% -18% -14% -14% -25% -30% -25% -19%
Belgium -28% -11% -25% -16% -7% -8% -48% -4% -6% -4%-

Sweden 15% 15% 15% 7% 10% 9% 17% 4% 10% 13%--

Belgium 2% 14% 2% 23% 19% 16% -18% 11%
4% 10% -2% 4% -3% 1% 5% 11%
China1USJan Feb Mar'21 '21 '21-62% -24% -23% -20% -9% -11% -16% -16% -9% -13% -

UK
Italy

May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

China1-1% 0% -3% 2%

Japan-35% -6% -19% -18% -24% -4% -8% -5% -18% -17%

≤ -30%-29% to -15%

6% 10% 5%-14% to 0%

4%

48%

69%
-

Japan

0%

2%

2%

2% -12% -11% 0%-43%

9% 26% 12% 10% -29% 29% 25% 15% 11% 7%

39%
-

> 0%

1. For China, Jan & Feb are reported together due to National Holidays, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. UK personal care and cosmetics still based onEurostat 3. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.; 4. Includes audio video & home appliances stores; Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personalcare & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equipment ~13%. Sector classification & mix may bedifferent across countries; Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Office for National Statistics United Kingdom, Ministry of Economy Japan

China's sales has seen evenstronger rebounds in 2021 whencompared to early months of 2020
(except Food & Beverage which
maintains similar growth rate)
Retail store sales recovery driven by
F&B across all countries
Personal care & cosmetics
category sales have rebounded
to 2019 levels except in Italy
Apparel category saw the largest
decline; continued fluctuations andfar from recovery across countries
except China
Home appliances sales havemixed development; US sales
continue to struggle
25

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Retail store sales breakdown by category, YoY % change vs. same month in past year

Stock markets continue to have an optimistic outlook:
17 out of 24 sectors currently above pre-crisis TSR levels

Based on top S&P
Global 1200 companies

As of 01 Apr 2021

Economic Impact

Semiconductors
Tech Hardware
Retailing
Materials
Media
Durable Goods
Capital Goods
Auto
Health Equipment
SoftwareFinancials
Prof. Services
PharmaFood/staples RetailHousehold Products
Banks
Hospitality
Insurance
Food & Beverage
Utilities
Telecom
Real EstateTransport
Energy21 Feb 2020–
20 Mar 2020

21 Feb 2020–
31 Mar 2021

21 Feb 2020

31 Mar 2021

-30%
-26%
-40%
-32%
-36%
-39%
-35%
-41%
-31%
-30%
-35%
-30%
-20%
-10%
-16%
-39%
-44%
-39%
-23%
-30%
-17%
-39%
-34%
-52%

57%
33%
31%
29%
28%
24%
22%
19%
12%
12%
11%
5%
5%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
-3%
-8%
-8%
-9%
-11%
-11%

0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

0%
0%
12%
4%
0%
0%
2%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
4%
23%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
24%
12%

1. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 28 Feb 2021; 2. Retailing, Hospitality,
Transport and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies with a probability of default > 15%; 3. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median; Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS
definitions; Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

26

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Companies2 with default probability >15%3

TSR1

US vaccine sentiment

How the U.S. can quickly prevent half amillion COVID deaths around the world

Getting to the COVID-19 finish line:
A drama in 3 acts

Lessons learned from the frontline of the
global COVID-19 vaccine rollout

Leading through the big transition to the
new reality

As vaccines roll out, testing still matters

A vaccination strategy to save lives andlivelihoods

How to care for your workforce in a crisis

Reimagining global healthafter the coronavirus

Source: BCG

27

Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

Additional perspectives on COVID-19

Disclaimer

The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of
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BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client. BCG has notindependently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or operating
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The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great careprior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. This presentation is not intended
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Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 30 April 2021 Version 2.0

The services and materials provided by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) are subject to BCG's Standard Terms(a copy of which is available upon request) or such other agreement as may have been previously executed by BCG.
BCG does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Client is responsible for obtaining independent advice concerningthese matters. This advice may affect the guidance given by BCG. Further, BCG has made no undertaking
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Executive
Perspectives

29