Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders

Global Restart:
Key Dynamics
21 July 2020

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

COVID-19 BCG Perspectives Series

COVID-19

BCG Perspectives
COVID-19 is a global
societal crisis

Leaders need to drive an integrated
response to navigate the crisis

We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak isfirst and foremost a societal crisis, threatening
lives and the well-being of our global community.
Society now, more than ever, needs to collaborate
to protect people’s lives and health, manage midterm implications, and search for lasting solutions.

It is the duty of health, political, societal, and businessleaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
government action, sector impact, and company
action is playing out. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
we see the crisis manifesting itself.

Source: BCG

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Objectives of this document

The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged
economic impact, government policies, and business and public responses
Fight

FutureTypically in the initial phase after a pandemic
outbreak—the goal is to urgently limit numberof new cases, especially critical care

Finding paths to collectively fight the virus,
restart the economy, and support society inbalancing lives and livelihood

Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/herd immunity and treatment withinsustainable medical capacities possible

Social distancing (lockdown) and partial businessclosures lead to economic recession with a large
employment impact

Increasing economic activity with recovering
GDP, some business reopenings, and social
distancing on a sustainable level

Reactivated economy with strong businessrebound and job growth, social restrictions
limited or completely suspended

1. Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
2. Government policies and economic stimulus
3. Economic scenarios
4. Business engagement and response
5. Public engagement and response

All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG

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FlattenExecutive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives

Severe global economic downturn expected for 2020; however, economic activity does show signs of recovery• Sector activity in transportation and automotive most impacted; however, manufacturing PMI2 indicates positive momentum globally• Retail goods sales3 are back to 2019 levels in the US, China and Japan, while other countries are ramping up; shift from offline to online sales continues• In only 4 out of 15 of the world’s largest economies, mobility is back to 85% of pre-crisis levels; workplace mobility and public transit most constrained• Companies must augment their capabilities to win; building greater systemic resilience and developing demand sensing capabilities are key

We believe during
this crisis leadersneed to think along
two dimensions:

Taking an integrated perspective on
health/medical progression,
governmental responses, societal
reactions, and economic implications
to understand business/sector impacts

Thinking multitimescale in a
Flatten-FightFuture logic

1. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases as compared to previous month; 2. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing
managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. 3 Excludes auto & fuel. Source: BCG

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As countries restart across the globe, managing disease progression continues to be a major challenge for governments• Daily cases continue to rise globally, with cases in July ~1.5x1 those in June; case growth does not slow down in summer/warmer months• New hotspots emerge across the globe; in the US, there has been a shift from eastern states to western and southern states• Country lockdown strategies are evolving from national to regional/local; several countries are experiencing second waves of cases• Governments can take a set of concrete actions to protect the broader population, especially the health-vulnerable, e.g., mandate face coverings

Summary snapshot | Restart progression at a glance
As of 17 July 2020

Consumer Activity

Global epidemic snapshot

14.1M
# of
cases

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

220K

Mobility

7.9M

596K

# of
recoveries# ofdaily cases1# offatalities

April

May

June

July4

Americas

6x

1.4x

1.6x

1.6x

Europe

2.1x

0.7x

0.8x

0.8x

Asia3

3.8x

1.7x

2.0x

1.4x

Economic Impact
GDP forecasts (%)
2020
Europe
US
Japan
China
India

IMF (24 June)-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6-10.2%
Baseline 1.3%6
-8.0%

2.0%

-5.8%

0.7%
1.0%

-4.5%

Business Impact

Banks58 10Month vs. Jan '20
Mobility7

April

May

June

Month end vs. Jan 02, '20

April

May

June

US

-38%

-27%

-19%

S&P500

-11%

-7%

-5%

EU

-61%

-42%

-25%

FTSE100

-22%

-20%

-19%

Japan

-24%

-26%

-13%

CHN SSE

-7%

-8%

-3%

April

May

June

Volatility Index (S&P500)12

2.7x

2.2x

2.4x

US

-88%

-82%

-69%

UK

-91%

-92%

-88%

China

-59%

-37%

-45%

Y-o-Y changes
Domestic air
travel tickets
booking8

Sales

International trade & CO2 emissions
April

May

June

US

-24%

-27%

N/A

China

-5%

-6%

N/A

Japan

-12%

-21%

N/A

16%

9%

6%

April

May

June

US

36

40

50

EU

33

39

47

China

51

51

51

Steel production (Y-o-Y)16

-13%

-9%

N/A

Y-o-Y change intrade value13

Y-o-Y changes

April

May

June

US
Retail goods
EUsales9(excl. auto & fuel) China

-6%

3%

6%

Drop in CO2 emissions14

-16%

-3%

N/A

-6%

-1%

2%

Industrial production

Auto sales10

US

-52%

-29%

-38%

EU

-83%

-56%

-34%

China

-3%

15%

2%

-70%

-60%

N/A

6.0%
5.8%

Stock market performance

Hotel occupancy11

Purchasing
Manager’s
index15(base = 50)

1. Calculated as seven day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases as compared to previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. As of 17 July 2020; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) ofWorld Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 12 April 2020 to 17 July 2020; 6. IMF June 2020 forecast; 7. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean
monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit and retail & recreation and compared to a baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; EU mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 8. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 9.
Retail goods sales includes online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; does not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Figures represent the difference in new passenger car registrations for the respective monthin 2020 compared to 2019 baseline; EU value calculated based on registrations in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 11. Calculated as average occupancy rates compared to month of previous year in regions Asia Pacific, Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago Board
Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous
year period; 14. Values calculated as monthly average; 15. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 16. Data corresponds to G-20 countries. Sources: JHU
CSSE; Our World in Data; WHO; World Bank; IMF; Bloomberg; Google Mobility; US Census Bureau; Eurostat; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; ACEA actuals; Wards Automotive; just auto; Marklines; China Assoc. of Automobile Manufact. (CAAM); ARC ticketing data; STR; Statista; CBOE; OECD; Integrated Carbon
Observatory System; Mature Climate Change; Global Carbon Project; The New York Times; BCG

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Epidemic Progression

Restart progression and early indicators•

fs

Trends in industrial, consumer activity, and mobility

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression; economic and business impact

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Key dynamics of the restartCOVID-19 epidemic continues to progress globally while disease
hotspots are changing and lockdown strategies are evolving
As of 17 July 2020

1.5x

cases in June1

Europe is the only continent where
daily new cases are declining in Julyas compared to June

Disease hotspots

30%

cases fromnew hotspots2

In the US, hotspots shifted from eastin April to west and south in July; only
4% of recent cases from old hotspots2
New local hotspots emerging globally(e.g., Australia and Germany)(Our World in Data)

Lockdown strategies

Localized
Countries (e.g., Australia, India,
Spain) shifting from national tolocalized lockdowns to control
the progression(JHU CSSE, Our World in Data)

1. Monthly average of daily new cases; In July average is taken till July 17; 2. Recent US cases refer to June to mid-July period; new hotspots defined as top 5 US states by daily cases / M inhabitants in June
until mid-July; old hotspots defined accordingly for April period
Sources: JHU CSSE; Our World in Data; Press search; BCG

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Daily case growth

Daily cases on the rise | Cases in early July ~1.5x those in June;~56% of the confirmed cases have recovered globally

CASE GROWTH

As of 17 July 2020

Key observations

Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)

5.2M (Δ1.5%)

250,000

Active cases globally5(daily growth rate %)200,000
South
America

150,000

Asia1

100,000

Africa50,0000Month-on-month
growth of
new cases3

North
America
Europe2
Mar

Apr

May

June

July

~340%

~20%

~50%

~50%

7.9M (56%)# of recoveries5(% of confirmed cases)

596k (Δ0.9%)

4

Fatalities globally(daily growth rate %)No slowdown in summer

US, India seeing increase in casenumbers despite warmer weather

1. Includes Oceania; 2. Source data reported UK correction of confirmed cases on 03 July and reduced ~30k cases resulting in a dip in the cases in Europe; 3. Calculated as growth in monthly average ofdaily cases as compared to previous month; 4. Growth calculated based on 7 day average; 5. Some countries like UK, Netherlands, Sweden do not report recoveries or active cases
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG

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De-averaged view | 9 of top 15 economies show increasing dailycase numbers; recovery rate of 75+% for 7 economies

CASE GROWTH

Top 15 economies by GDP
As of 17 July 2020
Daily Cases/M

Recovery

Growth of daily new cases2

New cases per
million population1

Testing

Total cases

RecoveryIn thousands% of total cases

3,576

30%

-0.1%

2,012

70%

46

-0.7%

324

80%

Russia

45

-0.2%

753

71%

India

22

1,004

63%

Spain

19

260

58%

UK4

10

Australia

10

Canada9France58Germany

5

Japan

4

Italy

3

S Korea
China6

US

198

Brazil172

Mexico

2.8%

3.2%
9.5%

# tests/ # cases\

0

2 weeks ago
10current value3
20
30+
\

\

2

12

2
\

32
13

\

293

3.5%

71%

109

88%

0.1%

174

37%

0.9%

201

93%

23

79%

-0.3%

244

81%

1

<100 daily cases

14

91%

0

<100 daily cases

85

94%

2.8%

13.2%

25

\

11

7.5%

20

\

298
31

\

15
34
\

\

1. 7-day rolling average; represented scale rounds up daily case/M to next 20th place; 2. Growth rate calculated basis 7-day rolling average of new cases; values calculated only for countries with 100+ daily cases;
3. Test/case data is not updated daily for a few countries, data represented is within last 1 week; 4. UK recovery data not available; 5. Two weeks ago testing data not available for France; 6. In China, dailycases/M is close to zero; recent testing data not available; Source: Our World in Data; JHU CSSE; Worldometers; BCG

26
25
106

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Daily cases

COVID-19 hotspots are changing | In the US, shift from easternstates in April to western and southern states in June and JulyDISEASE HOTSPOTSAs of 17 July 2020

US Example

MA

Top 5 US states with highest daily cases per M population1
392

RI

375
274

CT

April

NE

May

RI

192

New Jersey Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut
174

171

166

164

IL

71

MD

Rhode Island Massachusetts
347

AZ

AL
LA

<50

50-100

US avg90

MA

Daily cases per M population1

230

NJ

New York

June
and
July2

256

269

Illinois

MarylandNebraska

224

223

196
119

SC

ArizonaFL>100

FloridaS Carolina

Louisiana

AlabamaCurrent top 5 states contribute 30% of new cases2;
while top 5 states from April contribute only 4% of new cases

1. Taken as monthly average; 2. Total US cases in June and July (to date); Source: Our World in Data; JHU CSSE; BCG

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NYMost of the developed economies that implemented significant
testing & tracing or stringent lockdowns controlled epidemic better

LOCKDOWN STRATEGIESAs of 17 July 2020

Daily cases per million population1
200
180

US

10,804160

Sweden

7,612

UK

4,309

Italy

4,031

Germany

2,397

60

Australia

42440South Korea

267

Japan

186

140
120
100
80

20
0

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

1. Calculated as a 7-day rolling average; 2. 4TIQ = Test, trace, track, technology, isolate, and quarantine
Source: JHU CSSE, BCG

Implemented
stringent
lockdowns after
initial outbreak
4TIQ2 countries:
Controlled initialoutbreak using
extensive measures

Jul

10

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Cumulative
Cases / M

LOCKDOWN STRATEGIES

Early lockdown alone
does not shorten outbreak

Stricter lockdown alone
does not shorten outbreak

Strict lockdown early on
shortens length of outbreakNot statistically significant (P-value: 0.45)

Not statistically significant (P-value: 0.48)

Statistically significant (P-value: 0.00)

Outbreak length (# days fatalities/M > 0.1)

Outbreak length (# days fatalities/M > 0.1)

Outbreak length (# days fatalities/M > 0.1)

100

100

100

50

50

50

0

-10

0

10

20

30

Speed (days to lockdown)

0

70

80

90

100

Max stringency

0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Cumulative stringency before
15 days after start of outbreakCountry

Note: Data as of 02 June 2020; excludes countries that did not use lockdown as a strategy, did not reach stringency above 70, and did not ever have more than 0.3 fatalities/M or morethan 10 days of 10 cases/M; lockdown defined as stringency > 70. Analysis excludes India. Source: John Hopkins CSSE; Oxford OxCGRT government stringency index.

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Improving from top to bottom

Fast and stringent lockdowns shorten outbreaks;
but neither is sufficient alone

Countries have shifted to localized lockdown measures to control
COVID-19 progression and a possible second wave

LOCKDOWN STRATEGIESAs of 17 July 2020

From national to statewide to localized
lockdowns

Australia
Lockdown in large city
re-imposed after second
wave emerged

Spain
From national toproactive lockdowns insmall regions/provinces

Nationwide
lockdown
started25 Mar

Lockdown
extendedRelaxations inzone with
low/no cases

Further relaxation acrosscountry; multiple states
continued with lockdown

14 Apr04 May01 JuneLockdown
extended in two
states till 31 July
27 JuneLockdown
startedNew South Wales
started to ease
restrictions

State ofemergency
extended in
Victoria

23 Mar

15 May20 JuneNationwide
lockdown
startedLifting ofrestrictions
startedPhased easingof lockdown
startedState ofalarm
expired16 Mar

13 Apr

02 May21 JuneLockdown started

Lockdown easing

Bengaluru
in triple
lockdown1
06 July

Melbourne
suburbs inlockdown
01 July

State of Bihar
enters 2-week
lockdown
16 July

Lockdown 2.0
Heightenedin Greater
preventive
Melbourne measures in NSW
08 July

17 July

Local lockdown Second local
re-imposed
lockdown inin one region
2 days04 July 05 July

Local lockdown/restrictions started

Note: Timeline is not drawn to scale. Only selective events regarding lockdown & easing restrictions have been captured; list is not exhaustive; 1. Offices, shops & public transit closed;
Source: Press search; BCG

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India

Non-exhaustiveMandate
face covering

Increase
sentineltesting1

Restrict
large indoor
gatherings

Promotesafe work
practices

Prioritize
disadvantaged
populations

for public gatherings;
distribute masks to thevulnerable & their contacts

including pooled testing
solutions to prevent anddetect outbreaks

where social distancing is not
feasible (e.g., 50+ people;
bars, sports arenas, etc.)

and their adoption at
workplaces (e.g.,hygiene, PPE)

through health, education,
livelihood, and food security
measures; and support thehealth-vulnerable

Japan, Singapore widelydistributed face masksSouth Korea, Iceland scaled
up testing as a key
containment lever

California re-imposed closure of
all restaurants, movie theatres,
zoos, museums, etc. in July 2020

New Zealand, Australia
released guidelines onsafe work practices

Uganda implemented radiobased learning to reach children
with no access to the internet

1. Sentinel testing involves testing random sample of people across the community, including those who appear well and show no symptoms, in order to discover unseen, asymptomatic cases;
Sources: LTC Responses to COVID-19; UK Government; UK Local Government Cohort report; Irish Times; Mercury News; BBC; BCG

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5 key actions governments could take to protect the broader
population and limit overall hospitalizations

Countries are attempting to restart economy while
managing disease progression
As of 16 July 2020

Chinese factories get back to workwith a few COVID-19 adjustments

July 09, 2020

Shopper traffic up and stabilizing
after Singapore's reopening, clientsadjusting well to safety measures

July 01, 2020

July 16, 2020

Germany's retail sales rose byalmost 14%, rebounding from a 6.5%
drop in April

US economy restarts from COVID-19
with the number of unemployment
claims dropping over past 16 weeks

Australia to reimpose six-week
lockdown on Melbourne as country
battles potential second wave

July 07, 2020

July 07, 2020

July 15, 2020

Thermometers in Hand, Dubai Opens
for Tourists Amid Pandemic

India Reimposes 2 Week Lockdown
in Parts of Country as Cases Surgeto 1 Million

Italian retail sales surge 24% after
lockdown eased

July 07, 2020

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July 03, 2020

Defeating virus is critical to economic recovery | Strong correlation between local
infection level and consumer spending; limited correl. with govt. restrictivenessAs of 26 June 2020

Consumer spending decreases
as local cases increase

More affluent likely to stay home,driving decline in spending

Spending not correlated withgovernment restrictivenessChange in consumer spending1 (%)
vs. Jan 2020

Change in mobility2 (%) vs. Jan 2020

Average change in overall spending3
vs. Jan 2020

-20

-15

10

-22

-20

-24

-25

-10

-26

-30

-20

-28

R2= ~ 0.7
5

20

150

1,100

CountyCounty-level COVID-19 cases per 100K people(log scale)-35

R2= ~ 0.9

R2= ~ 0.8520150Counties in top quartile avg. income

1,100Counties in bottom quartile avg. income

County-level COVID-19 cases per 100K people(log scale)

0-30

R2= ~ 0.03

20

40

Most restrictive

60

80

State

100

Least restrictive

State-level composite score of levelof government restrictions4

1. Based on data from April 1 to April 14, 2020; 2. Based on data from March 25 to April 14, 2020; 3. Based on data from June 26, 2020; 4. Composite score of restrictions includes,e.g., requirement to wear a mask in public, travel restrictions, large gathering restrictions.
Sources: Anity Solutions; Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports”. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: June 26, 2020;
Chetty, Raj, et al; Opportunity Insights; New York Times, The COVID Tracking Project; CDC; WalletHub; BCG

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US Example

Industrial activity and mobility still far from pre-COVID-19 levels;
retail goods sales (excluding auto and fuel) seeing early recovery
As of 17 July 2020

Retail goods sales
Only

Mobility

Only

3% decline

4 out of 15

in June activity intransportation andautomotive sectors ascompared to 2019

in total retail goods sales(online + offline; excluding
auto and fuel) in EU in May
as compared to 2019

largest economies show
mobility1 back to 85%+of pre-COVID-19 levels(BCG Economic Recovery Pulse Check)(Eurostat)(Google Mobility)

20-30% decline

1. Workplace, retail & recreational, public transit and, grocery & pharmacy mobility
Sources: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports"; Eurostat; BCG

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Industrial activity

Transportation and automotive sectors most impacted;
materials and process industries have recovered

INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY

As of 28 June 2020
Largest 5 European economies1

Non-exhaustive

BCG Economic Recovery Pulse Check (ERPC)ERPC is a highfrequency index
capturing sector
activity

Activity across time (year-on-year)2120

Lockdown3

Normal state

100

Based on 100+ data
sources (sector
specific), e.g.:• Financials• Macro data
• Employment• Sector confidence

Health care4
Materials & process industry5
Financial Institutions
Engineered Prod. & Infrastr.6
Technology, Media & Telecom

80

EnergyAutomotive & mobility
Transportation & Logistics
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Note: ERPC tracks industries in EU5 (GER, FR, UK, ITA, SPA), US, Brazil, China and Japan. Index value of 100 indicates a normal activity compared to previous year's period. Current activity and at normal state
are computed with a 4-week exponential smoothing; 1. Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain; 2. Average sector activity values across EU5 countries; 3. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates in EU5
countries; 4. Medical Tech, Biopharma, Consumer Health (excluding Hospitals); 5. Chemicals, Metals and Mining, Building Materials, Forest Products, Paper and Packaging; 6. Aerospace & Defense,
Infrastructure, Machinery & Industrial Automation; Source: BCG

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Methodology

Manufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates positive
momentum, except in Japan and South Korea

INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY

As of 01 July 2020

US
Neutrallevel = 50

2

1
0

-2

Jan

Feb

Mar

-14
Apr

Italy

China1

Neutrallevel = 50

Neutrallevel = 50

-1

-1

-5

-10

-10
May

Jun

Jan

Feb

Mar

-19
Apr

-3

2

Jan

-30% to -15%

Lockdown started-15% to 0%> 0%

Lockdown easing

1

1

1

May

Jun

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

-8

-9

-7

Apr

May

Jun

-12

-10

May

Jun

South Korea
Neutrallevel = 50

3

Feb

Mar

-13
Apr

May

Jun

Japan

Neutrallevel = 50

Neutrallevel = 50

Jan

-2

Feb

-5

Mar

-1

-5
-16
Apr

-6

-10

Germany

-5

0

-3

-7

< -30%

2-14

SwedenNeutrallevel = 50

0

Jan

Feb

-1

-2

Mar

-5

-13
May

Jun

Jan

Feb

Mar

-8
Apr

Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is
considered to be positive sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment.
1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Source: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA;
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; Bloomberg

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Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis

Retail goods sales (excl. auto and fuel) recovered to pre-COVID-19
levels in US, China & Japan; showing sign of recovery in Spain & UK

RETAIL GOODS SALESAs of 17 July 2020

Growth of total retail goods sales (excl. auto & fuel)1, YOY % change vs 2019Jan
China2

Feb
-16%

Mar

Apr

May

June

-12%

-6%

-1%

2%

Japan

0%

2%

1%

-6%

-1%

US

3%

4%

7%

-6%

3%

UK

1%

0%

-4%

-19%

-11%

Spain

3%

3%

-12%

-27%

-16%

Sweden

4%

4%

1%

-1%

2%

<-15%

-15% to 0%

6%

Retail goods sales have alreadyrecovered to pre-COVID-19 levels
in US, China & Japan
Spain & UK have shown signs ofrecovery but still lag behind lastyear’s sales
Sweden hasn't shown asignificant impact of COVID-19 on
retail goods sales> 0%

1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; 2. For China, combined value of Jan & Feb is available;
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

Further reading
Reigniting Retail Demand19

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Retail goods sales includes online & offline sales and comprises food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personalcare, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; does not include auto, fuel & food services

Shift to online retail goods sales (excluding auto and fuel)accelerated during lockdown period and is continuing

RETAIL GOODS SALESAs of 05 July 2020

UK Example
Non-exhaustive

Year-on-year online and offline retail goods (excluding auto and fuel) sales
UK credit card sample spending in retail
80%

Lockdown
34%

40%

Total online retail

20%
0%

-11%

-20%

Total offline retail

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Onlineshare1

16%

16%

18%

22%

24%

23%

Change in UK
retail overall2

1%

0%

-4%

-19%

-11%

N/A

Note: Included offline categories: Discount Retail, Groceries, Supermarket, Bookstore, Department Store, Electronics & Electricals, Clothing, Designer Clothes,
Toys, Home, Pet Care, Toiletries, Shoes; Included online categories: Online Shopping, Online only fashion; Online share; Credit card sample represents
approx. 1% of total spending; 1. Calculated as average online share throughout calendar month, based on categories in-scope; 2. Based on Eurostat capturingchanges in overall UK retails sales; Source: Money Dashboard; Eurostat; BCG

Further reading
CPG Companies Face an ECommerce Tsunami

20

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

60%

De-averaged view | Retail store sales in China recovering across
categories; apparel sales continue to be low

RETAIL GOODS SALESAs of 17 July 2020

Retail store sales' breakdown by category, YoY % change vs 2019

China1
Japan
US
UK
Spain
SwedenPersonal care & cosmetics stores

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

10%
4%
4%
1%
2%
2%

19%
1%
29%
10%
8%
5%

18%
0%
12%
5%
-2%
-2%

11%
2%
15%
5%
1%
1%

11%
12%

Apparel stores2

China1
Japan
US
UK
Spain
SwedenChina1
Japan
US
UK
Spain
Sweden

Mar

Apr

May

June

-14% -12% 4% 13%
9%
2%
3%
-3%
0%
6% -10% -9%-10% -4% -37% -37%
4%
2% -12% -10%
5% 20% -3% -4%

21%
-6%

Mar

Apr

May

-31%
-4%
1%
0%
0%
-2%

-35%
-23%
-49%
-36%
-62%
-34%

-19%
-54%
-86%
-68%
-90%
-38%

-1%
0%
-34%
-62% -23%
-61%
-67%
-31%

-30% to -15%June

-15% to 0%

China1
Japan
US
UK
Spain
SwedenApr

May

For all categories, China's sales
have reverted to year-ago run-rates
Retail store sales recovery driven by
F&B across all countries
Limited recovery in personal care &cosmetics category across US &European countries

Home appliance stores3

Feb< -30%

Feb

Feb

Mar

June

-30%
5%
0%
-1%
3%
8%

-30% -9%
4% 10%-10% -9%9%-18% -53% -37% -13%
-11% -50% -31%
-44% -77% -31%
1% 10% 16%

Apparels' category saw largest
decline; far from recovery acrosscountries except China
Home appliances sales seeing a
recovery; already higher than lastyear in Sweden, Japan, and China>0%

Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equip ~13%.
Sector classification & mix may be different across countries; 1. For China, Feb data includes both Jan & Feb, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.;
3. Includes Audio video & home appliances stores; Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

21

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Food & beverage stores

Discretionary spend, e.g., passenger car sales, sees limited recovery,
except for China and South Korea due to local market dynamics

RETAIL GOODS SALESAs of 16 July 2020

Monthly passenger car sales, YOY % change vs 2019
China, South Korea, and Japan
Jan
0%

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

8%

May
15%

US1, 2
-39%

-29%
-52%

China3, 4
Jan

Jun

Jan

Feb

-7%

-11%

Mar

Germany6

-46%

-38%

-82%

Feb

Apr

-61%

Mar

Apr

May

May

Jun

2%

-3%

-20%

-38%

Germany, Italy, and Sweden

Jun

Jan

Feb

-6%

-9%

Mar

Apr

-49%

May

-32%

Jun

49%
12%
-14%

13%

14%

-20%

Italy

South Korea5Jan< -30%-30% to -15%

Lockdown started-15% to 0%> 0%

Lockdown easing

-18%

Japan

Feb

Mar

-6%

-9%

Apr

-37%

May

-50%

Jun

Jan

-23%

-18%

-85%

Feb

Mar

-6%

-9%

Sweden1. Light Vehicles (LV) include Passenger Vehicles (PV); 2. Stimulus policies: USD 2 trillion economic rescue package announced without specific auto sector measures; 3. Passenger vehicle sales
by month incl. mini vans; 4. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high tier cities and extended NEV subsidies; 5. South Korea's
growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models and theincreased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety ofdifferent cars to be modified into 'camping cars'; 6. Stimulus policies: Launched purchase incentives for EVs and PHEVs of up to 9K EUR per car (for EV with purchase price of <40K EUR);
Note: Figures represent new passenger car registrations; Source: ACEA actuals; Wards Automotive; just auto; Marklines/China Assoc. of Automobile Manufact. (CAAM); BCG

-50%
-98%

Apr

May

-23%

Jun

-22%
-37%

-50%

Further reading
COVID-19’s Impact on
the Automotive Industry

22

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

USOnly 4 of top 15 economies1 show mobility back to 85%
of pre-COVID-19 levels

MOBILITY

As of 14 July 202015 largest economies1

February2

March

April

May

June

US

2%

-14%

-38%

-27%

-19%

Japan

-2%

-7%

-24%

-26%

-13%

Germany

0%

-20%

-38%

-23%

-15%

India

1%

-24%

-66%

-50%

-33%

United Kingdom

-2%

-21%

-61%

-51%

-41%

France

-2%

-36%

-67%

-42%

-19%

Brazil

-2%

-17%

-41%

-34%

-26%

Italy

-2%

-51%

-68%

-42%

-22%

Canada

0%

-20%

-50%

-37%

-25%

Russia

4%

-2%

-39%

-27%

-11%

South Korea

-12%

-14%

-7%

-1%

-1%

Australia

6%

-6%

-39%

-26%

-18%

Spain

2%

-40%

-73%

-50%

-26%

Mexico

3%

-12%

-45%

-43%

-36%

Lockdown< -30%-30% to -16%

-15% to 0%

Current mobility levels
are below January 2020
for all countries
Many countries showed
a 50% reduction in
mobility in April, themonth of widespread
lockdowns acrossgeographic areas> 0%

1. Except China; 2. Change based on the data starting on 15 Feb throughout the end of February; Note: Lockdown definition varies among countries but generally refers to period when non-essential
businesses were ordered to shut down; Easing of lockdown comes with certain restrictions in all the countries; Monthly change in mobility levels is calculated by taking an average of the monthly values of
workplace, public transit, grocery & pharmacy and retail & recreation mobility; Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 14
July 2020; Press search; BCG

23

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Monthly change in mobility levels to baseline of January to mid-February 2020

Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; lower recovery of
workplace mobility indicates continued adoption of work from home

MOBILITY

As of 14 July 2020

Workplace1, public transit2 and retail & recreation3 mobility as compared to baseline of January to mid-February 2020
Sweden

Italy

0%

0%

0%

-50%

-50%

-50%

-100%

15
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

10
Jul

Germany

-100%

15
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

10
Jul

South Korea

-100%

0%

0%

-50%

-50%

-50%

15
Feb

Mar

Lockdown started

Apr

May

Lockdown easing

Jun

10
Jul

-100%

15
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

10
Jul

15
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

10
Jul

Japan

0%

-100%

15
Feb

Mar

Workplace mobility
Retail+recreation

Apr

May

Jun

10
Jul

Public transit mobility-100%

Further reading
How COVID-19 Will Shape Urban Mobility

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers,
24
theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks during Feb 15–Jul 10 2020); Source: Google LLC "Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 14 July 2020; Press search; BCG

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

USCurrent and future flight ticket bookings acrosscountries show that recovery in air travel is far away

MOBILITY

As of 30 June 2020

Domestic flight booking trends

Domestic flight tickets booked by departure monthYoY comparison of 14-day rolling average of domestic ticket volume1

YoY comparison of ticket volume by departure month
China

20%

June-Jul-40%

Aug-Oct

Nov onwards

-86%

-47%

S Korea

-58%

-54%

-64%

-20%

Japan

-85%

-75%

-92%

-40%

US

-75%

-64%

-54%

-60%

Germany

-86%

-78%

-79%

-80%

UK

-90%

-78%

-61%

Italy

-76%

-64%

-77%

0%

-100%
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

China

Japan

Germany

S Korea

US

UK

May
Italy

June

Decline as compared to last year

1. % changes in rolling 14 days value as compared to same period last year for one way tickets; Source: ARC ticketing data; BCG

40%-60%60%-80%>80%
25

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

40%

Build greatersystemic
resilience

Developdemand-sensing
capabilities

Scale
Digitalomnichanneland digital
Experiences
experiences

Evaluate
futurescenarios

Build greater systemic
resilience to absorb stress,
recover critical functionality,
and thrive in alteredcircumstances

Build advanced analytics
capabilities (including
Lighthouse) to use highfrequency data to sense demand
shifts and consumer sentiments

Scale up e-commerce andomnichannel capabilities;
invest in personalizationand digital sales andmarketing

Leverage the power of data
and technology to develop
potential scenarios forchanging shape of demandand structural shifts

More on following pages
Source: BCG

26

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Companies will need to augment their capabilities to win in the new reality

Organizations need to build
greater systemic resilience toabsorb stress, recover critical
functionality, and thrive inaltered circumstances
Further reading:
A Guide to Building a More
Resilient Business2

Seek advantage in adversity

Aim to create advantage in adversity by effectively capturing opportunities in the new reality

Look forward

Shift the organization’s time horizon outward to identify new needs and create opportunities
in the incapacitation of competitors

3

Take a collaborative, systems view

4

Measure beyond performance5

Prize diversity

6

Change as the default

Foster collaboration among employees, customers, and stakeholders to enable systemic solutions

Build a sustainable business by measuring flexibility, adaptation, and other components ofresilience
Champion the prizing of cognitive diversity and appreciate the value of variation and divergence

Build organizations and supporting systems predicated on constant change and experimentation

Source: BCG

27

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Building
greater systemic
resilience

1Pace and de-averaged nature of change make rapid
sensing capabilities a key imperative for leaders

Imperative to build rapid demand-sensing
capabilities to capture a de-averaged
recovery across sectors

The pace of change has increased by multiples
We have seen two years' worth ofdigital transformation in two months.
– Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft

Change in consumer behavior is not uniform
Geography

Medium-term scenarios

Sensing short-term trends
in demand based onhigh-frequency data

Understanding scenarios
for changing shape ofdemand and structural shifts

SectorSales channel

Target group…

Source: Microsoft; BCG

Short-term sensing

Further reading
Sensing Consumer Behavior and Seizing Demand Shifts
28

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Change is coming at a fast
pace and in different shapes

Restart progression and early indicators
Trends in industrial, consumer activity, and mobility

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression; economic and business impact

29

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Key dynamics of the restartVaccines and Treatments | Development at unprecedented pace

EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION

As of 17 July 2020

Treatments

23

candidates inclinical trials

1711

10
Phase I

Safety, side
effects/dose

Phase I/II

59
8
Phase II3 2 194

Effectiveness/safetyPhase III

Confirm
effectiveness

831

10

Phase I

Phase I/II

Safety, side
effects/dose

Of which, 3 have been
approved2 for treatment

candidates inclinical trials

4
Phase II

20

Effectiveness/safety7
Phase
II/III

12
Phase III

Confirm
effectiveness6 142
Phase IV

Risk-benefit/
best use

By the beginning of 2021, we hope to have a couple ofhundred million doses. I'm cautiously optimistic with themultiple candidates we have with different platforms.

We have made amazing progress in the treatment of
COVID-19. Two therapies – steroids and Remdesivir –have already been shown to help.

- Dr. Anthony Fauci, Member, White House Coronavirus Task Force- Dr. William Petri, Professor of Medicine, University of Virginia

1. Pre-clinical trials; 2. Three treatments are approved to treat COVID-19: Dexamethasone in the UK; Avigan (favilavir) in China, Italy and Russia + emergency use in India; and Veklury (Remdesivir) in Japan+ emergency use in US, India, South Korea and EU; in addition, Itolizumab has emergency use authorization in India
Source: WHO (July 15); Milken Institute; Press search; BCG

30

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Vaccines

Economic forecasts point toward severe
downturn in 2020 with rebound in 2021

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS & IMPACT

As of 20 July 2020

GDP level forecast2

GDP growth forecast vs. baseline-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
Forecast -8.0%

2%

4%

6%

8% 10%

2021(Global forecast: 5.4%)1-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%Baseline 2.0%

2%

4%

1.7%

4.5%

US

8% 10%

97-100%

4.0%

-6.1%
-10.2%

1.3%

1.4%

6.0%

Europe96-99%

4.5%

-9.1%
1.0%

6.0%

5.8%

China
-5.8%

95-98%
2.5%-4.5%

Forecast IMF (Jun 24, 2020)

107-112%

0.5% 2.4%

0.7%

-6.1%

India3

8.2%

6.9%

1.0%

Japan

6%

EOY 2021 vs. EOY 2019

-3.2%

5.8%

6.0% 6.5%

100-107%
Forecast World Bank (Jun 8, 2020)

Baseline IMF (Jan 20, 2020)

3.1%
Forecast range banks4

Note: As of reports dated 31 March 2020 to 24 June 2020, YoY forecasts; 1. Based on IMF forecast June 24 2020; 2. Range calculated with 25th & 75th percentile values of forecast range; 3. For India, forecast is forfinancial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 4. Range from forecasts (where available) of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse;31
Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC.; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

(Global forecast: -4.9%)1

2020

Countries with shorter outbreaks are forecasted
to have better economic performance

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS & IMPACT

Outbreak length1 vs. average 2020 GDP growth forecast
Outbreak length (number of days with fatalities/M ≥ 0.1)

Improving from top to bottom

Italy

100

Japan controlled outbreaks, but suffering impact
of global economic crisis via lower exportsUK

New Zealand’s strict and early lockdown brought diseaselevels to nearly 0, but forecasting large GDP decline

US
Sweden75

IsraelDenmark
Austria
BrazilMexicoChile

Countries that quickly implemented 4TIQ3and controlled outbreak seeing better GDP prospects

Argentina

50

Japan
25
Australia

New Zealand0Singapore

South Korea
China

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Average 2020 GDP growth forecast (%)2
1. Outbreak length defined as Number of Days with Fatalities/M greater than or equal to 0.1; 2. Calculated as the mean of available forecasts by OECD, World Bank, Euromonitor, IMF, and Oxford Economics;
3. Policies with focus on test, trace, track, tech, isolate, quarantine; Note: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, India still having outbreaks at the time of the data pull. Trend line R2 = 0.49, P-value = 0.00. Data as of
15 June, 2020; Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2020; World Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2020; Euromonitor Global Economic Forecasts Q2 2020; IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020; Oxford
Economics June 2020; John Hopkins CSSE; BCG

32

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Sweden seeing economic decline
despite keeping economy open125

Unemployment numbers declining or flattening out;
for US, temporary jobs coming back, permanent job losses increase
As of 12 July 2020

UK Example# of jobs furloughed (M)
10

30

27

29

8

23
20
15
10

10

US Example

In US, temporary jobs coming back;however, permanent job losses increasing

Total claims value (B pounds)

20

As of 02 July 2020

50
Employers 23-Apr 11-May 24-May 7-Jun 21-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul
leveraging
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
furloughprogram (M)# of jobs furloughed
Total claims value

Number of unemployed people (millions in every month)
20

18M

15

6
10

11M

4
2
0

5

0
Nov'19Source: US Department of Labor – Employment Situation Report (02 July 2020); HMRC Coronavirus Statistics – UK Government

3M
Dec'19Jan'20Feb'20Temporary job losses

Mar'20

Apr'20

May'20Jun'20

Permanent job losses
33

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

In UK, number of jobs
furloughed is flattening out

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS & IMPACT

Global equity markets have been highly volatile throughthe crisis, including their recovery since March lows

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS & IMPACT

As of 17 July 2020

S&P500

NASDAQ

DAX

FTSE

China SSE

10%

Most stock market indicescurrently recovering
rapidly; NASDAQ crossed alltime high recently1

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%

Volatility

S&P500 (VIX)

NASDAQ (VXN)DAX (VDAX)FTSE

China SSE (CBOE)

80

Volatility index2 (~273) ishigher than pre-COVID-19
levels (154)

60
40
20
0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

1. On 10 July 2020; 2. Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility; it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments;
3. Median volatility of the 5 indices on the chart on 17 July 2020; 4. Median volatility of the 5 indices over the month of January 2020; Source: Bloomberg, BCG

34

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Market index

4 sectors currently at pre-crisis TSR levels; 6 sectors withsignificant share1 of companies with >15% default risk

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS & IMPACT

As of 17 July 2020

Categories based on TSR and net debt/enterprise value2

Healthier sectors

Pressured sectors

Vulnerable sectors

Semiconductors
PharmaFood/staples RetailHousehold Products
Tech Hardware
Retailing
Software
Health Equipment
Materials
Prof. Services
Telecom
Food & Beverage
Media
Capital Goods
Financials
Auto
Utilities
Transport
Durable Goods
Insurance
Banks
Hospitality
Real Estate
Energy21 Feb 2020
- 20 Mar 2020

21 Feb 2020- 17 July 2020

-30%
-20%
-10%
-16%
-26%
-40%
-30%
-31%
-32%
-30%
-17%
-23%
-36%
-35%
-35%
-41%
-30%
-34%
-39%
-39%
-39%
-44%
-39%
-52%

7%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-5%
-7%
-8 %
-8 %
-9%
-9%
-12%
-12%
-13%
-13%
-16%
-20%
-27%
-27%
-28 %
-31%

Companies with probability of default >15%4
03 July 2020- 17 July 2020

21 Feb 2020
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7%
0%
0%

Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS definitions; 1. Retailing, Transport, Auto, Real Estate, Energy, Hospitality with > 10% of companies with probability of default> 15%; 2.Net debt & enterprise value from latest available balance sheet; Categories defined based on comparison with S&P Global 1200 median: healthy = TSR & debt/EV > median, pressured = TSR or
debt/EV < median, vulnerable = TSR & debt/EV < median; 3. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (troughof the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 17 July 2020 based on median; 4. Implied by 5-year Credit Default Swap based on median
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

17 July 2020

03 July 2020- 17 July 2020

0%
5%
0%
0%
0%
35%
0%
0%
9%
0%
8%
0%
8%
5%
0%
24%
3%
28 %
5%
0%
4%
36%
17%
18 %

Pos. trend ≥ 2%
No sig. change
Neg. trend ≥ 2%

35

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

TSR performance3

Edition #12

Edition #11

Edition #10

Edition #9

Ensuring an Inclusive
RecoveryAccelerating Climate
Actions in the New Reality

Value Protection and
Acceleration Roadmap to
Win in the New Reality

Future of Global Tradeand Supply Chains

Edition #8

Edition #7

Edition #6

Edition #5

Galvanizing Nations for
the New Reality

Sensing Consumer Behavior
and Seizing Demand Shifts

Restructuring Costs, andManaging Cash and Liquidity

Revamping Organizations
for the New Reality

Edition #4

Edition #3

Edition #2

Edition #1

Accelerating Digital &Technology Transformation

Emerging Stronger fromthe Crisis

Preparing for the Restart

Facts, Scenarios, andActions for Business
Leaders

Source: BCG

36

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 21 July 2020 Version 13.2.

Additional perspectives on COVID-19

Disclaimer

The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of
the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any
person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG. These materials serve only as
the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and may not be relied on as astand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any Third Party to, rely on these materials
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