Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders

Vaccines & Therapeutics Outlook
Part I: Timelines and Success Factors

26 August 2020

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

COVID-19 BCG Perspectives Series

COVID-19

BCG Perspectives

COVID-19 is a global
societal crisis

Leaders need to drive an integrated
response to navigate the crisis

We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak isfirst and foremost a societal crisis, threatening
lives and the well-being of our global community.
Society now, more than ever, needs to collaborate
to protect people’s lives and health, manage midterm implications, and search for lasting solutions.

It is the duty of health, political, societal, and businessleaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
government action, sector impact, and company
action is playing out. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
we see the crisis manifesting itself.

Source: BCG

1

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Group. All
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rights reserved.
reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1
Copyright

Objectives of this document

The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged
economic impact, government policies, and business and public responses
Fight

FutureTypically in the initial phase after a pandemic
outbreak, the goal is to urgently limit numberof new cases, especially critical care

Finding paths to collectively fight the virus,
restart the economy, and support society inbalancing lives and livelihood

Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/herd immunity and treatment withinsustainable medical capacities possible

Social distancing (lockdown) and partial businessclosures lead to economic recession with a large
employment impact

Increasing economic activity with recovering
GDP, some business reopenings, and social
distancing on a sustainable level

Reactivated economy with strong businessrebound and job growth, social restrictions
limited or completely suspended

1. Disease progression, healthcare system capacity, and response
2. Government policies and economic stimulus
3. Economic scenarios
4. Business engagement and response
5. Public engagement and response

All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG

2

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FlattenSummary snapshot | Restart progression at a glance
As of 21 August 2020

Consumer Activity

Global epidemic snapshot

Mobility

23.0M

255K

7.4M

799K

# of
cases

# of
daily cases1# ofactive cases# offatalities

Month-onmonth
growth of
new cases2

May

June

July

Aug4

Americas

1.4x

1.6x

1.7x

1.0x

Europe

0.7x

0.8x

1.0x

1.5x

Asia3

1.7x

2.0x

1.7x

1.4x

2020

IMF (24 June)-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6-10.2%
Baseline 1.3%6

Europe
-8.0%

2.0%

US
-5.8%

0.7%

Mobility7

US

May
-27%

June
-19%

July
-19%

(month vs. Jan'20)

Europe

-42%

-25%

-17%

Japan

-26%

-13%

-13%

US

-82%

-69%

-76%

UK

-92%

-88%

-86%

China

-37%

-45%

-26%

Domestic air
travel tickets
booking8 (YoY)

Banks5

8 10

China
-4.5%
India

6.0%
5.8%

Month end vs. 02 Jan '20

May

June

July

S&P500

-7%

-5%

0%

FTSE100

-20%

-19%

-22%

CHN SSE

-8%

-3%

7%

Volatility Index (S&P500)12

2.2x

2.4x

2.0x

US

-28%

-20%

N/A

UK

-25%

-14%

N/A

China

-9%

1%

3%

US

40

50

51

EU

40

48

52

China

51

51

51

Steel production (YoY)15

-9%

-7%

N/A

International trade
Trade value13
(YoY)

US
Retail goods
sales9 (excl. auto UK& fuel, YoY)
China

3%

8%

9%

-11%

1%

N/A

-1%

2%

-2%

Passenger
vehicle sales10
(YoY)

US

-40%

-38%

-19%

Europe

-59%

-25%

-19%

China

7%

2%

9%

Hotel
occupancy11
(YoY)

US

-52%

-43%

-36%

Europe

-82%

-73%

-66%

China

-34%

N/A

-19%

Japan
1.0%

Stock market performance

Sales

Economic Impact
GDP forecasts (%)

Business Impact

Industrial production
Purchasing
Manager’s
index14(base = 50)

1. Calculated as seven day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases as compared to previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. As of 21 August 2020; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) ofWorld Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 12 April 2020 to 20 Aug 2020; 6. IMF Jan 2020 forecast; 7. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly
mobilities in workplace, public transit and retail & recreation and compared to a baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 8. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 9. Retailgoods sales includes online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; does not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Figures represent passenger vehicle (cars including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales
data for 2020 over same month in 2019; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 11. Calculated as average occupancy rates compared to same month of previous year ; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a realtime market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous year period; 14. PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusionindex that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (<50); 15. Data corresponds to G-20 countries (minus Indonesia). Sources: JHU CSSE; Our World in Data; WHO; World Bank; IMF; Bloomberg; Google Mobility; US Census
Bureau; Eurostat; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; ACEA actuals; Wards Automotive; just auto; Marklines; China Assoc. of Automobile Manufact. (CAAM); ARC ticketing data; STR; Statista; CBOE; OECD; BCG

3

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Epidemic Progression

Vaccines and therapeutics are key to containing the virus; unprecedented response globally on scale and speed of R&D efforts• Early signs of slowing global case growth visible in August 2020; however some countries experiencing substantial resurgence• Current developments for a COVID-19 vaccine moving at turbo-charged pace; 12-18 month timeline1 unprecedented when compared to traditional paradigms• 6 vaccine candidates already in Phase III; some may start getting emergency use authorizations starting in Q4 20202, however subject to safety/efficacy profiles• Current best case scenario points to start of broad distribution in Q2 2021, but subject to pre-conditions like regulatory approvals, manufacturing & distr. scale-up• 4 key therapeutic candidates already under emergency authorization in select countries3; however safety, efficacy and broad clinical trials key to further approvals• Multiple scenarios possible based on vaccine/therapeutic characteristics, supply chains and societal response; leaders need to prepare requisite action agenda
Severe global economic downturn expected for 2020; some green shoots on recovery visible• Economic forecasts indicate a rebound to 2019 GDP levels only by end of 2021 for most leading economies• Unemployment numbers for top economies declining or flattening out; in US, temporary jobs coming back, permanent job losses flattening• Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; lower recovery rate of workplace mobility indicates continued adoption of work from home
• Business activity across many sectors has recovered to previous year levels; transportation & logistics, and energy among the few that continue to be hit• 5 (out of 24) sectors4 are currently above pre-crisis TSR5 levels; 6 sectors have a significant share5 of companies with >15% default risk

We believe during
this crisis leadersneed to think along
two dimensions:

Taking an integrated perspective on
health/medical progression,
governmental responses, societal
reactions, and economic implications
to understand business/sector impacts

Thinking multitimescale in a
Flatten-Fight-Futurelogic

1. From exploratory / pre-clinical trials to phased approvals, and assumes no significant R&D challenges; 2. Initial data observed in the early stages of phase 3 trials may lead to restricted approvals starting in Q4 2020; 3. EUA for
Remdesivir in the US, Japan, Australia (non-exhaustive), Convalescent plasma therapy in the US (non-exhaustive); Dexamethasone in UK, Japan (non-exhaustive); Favipiravir in India, Russia, China (non-exhaustive); 4. Semiconductors,
Retailing, Pharma, Foods/ staples retail and Household products; 4. TSR: Total Shareholder Return; 5. Retailing, Auto, Transport, Hospitality, Real estate and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies with probability of default > 15%

4

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Executive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives

Questions on every public and business leader's mind right now
Non-exhaustive

When and what
will a safe andeffective COVID-19
vaccine/ therapeutic
look like?

• What factors will drive early authorizations and subsequent approvals?
• When will a vaccine likely be widely available?
• Will vaccine efficacy and safety outcomes impact vaccine adoption patterns andhealthcare response priorities?
• What are the pre-conditions to ensure broad availability & distribution?
Focus for the current edition

2

What choices andimplications
emerge for public andbusiness leaders?

• What are the likely scenarios that emerge across vaccine characteristics and adoption behaviors?
• What are the choices (and implications) individuals will have to make given considerations
around safety, efficacy and duration of immunity of vaccines and therapeutics?
• How should public leaders think about communication strategies and ensuring equitable accessacross scenarios?
• How should business leaders think about safeguarding their employees and planning for apotentially tumultuous 2021?
Focus for the next edition

Source: BCG

5

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

1

• What is the current development landscape across leading COVID-19 pharmaceuticalcountermeasures (vaccines & therapeutics)?

Development landscape and timelines
Pre-conditions for broad availability and distribution

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business indicators

6

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics

Epidemic progression | Early signs of slowing global case growth inAugust; however, some countries experiencing resurgence

EPIDEMICPROGRESSION

As of 21 August 2020

Daily case growth continues, albeit at a lower pace in August

Signs of resurgence observed across geos.

Daily new cases (7-day rolling average)

Daily new cases per million (7-day rolling average)

250,000

250

Global cumulative numbers

23.0M

7.4M

799k

Confirmed cases

Active cases

Fatalities

North
America200

Israel

200,000
150

Spain

South
America

150,000

100

100,000
Asia &
Oceania1

50,0000Month onmonth growthof new cases2

AfricaEurope
Mar

Apr

May

June

July

21 Aug

~340%

~20%

~50%

~60%

~10%3

50

Belgium
Australia

0

Mar

May

July

21 AugSelect examples

1. Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean; 2. Calculated as growth in monthly average of daily cases as compared to previous month;
3. Calculated as an average until 21 August; Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG

7

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300,000

Vaccines & therapeutics are key to containing the virus;
multiple candidates from different countries
As of 25 August 2020

Russia registers world's first COVID19 vaccine; phase 3 trials set to beginsoon

Aug 23, 2020

FDA grants Emergency Use
Authorization for expanded use ofplasma to treat COVID-19

Aug 23, 2020

Aug 10, 2020

The race to find a COVID-19 vaccine
has intensified – 30 candidates are
now in clinical trials

Remdesivir, already approved in EU &Japan, now seeks US FDA approval

Aug 24, 2020

Aug 18, 2020

172 countries considering engaging
with global vaccine alliance COVAX –goal to procure 2B doses by 2021 end

Dr. Fauci expects enough vaccine shots
for all Americans by end of 2021 – tensof millions of doses by start of 2021

Aug 14, 2020

Aug 12, 2020

EU reserves 300M doses of vaccine
in pharma deal, says in touch withcompanies about promising vaccines

Drug-makers race to build vaccine
supply chains – building plants &expanding manufacturing capacities

8

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Aug 25, 2020

Vaccines & Therapeutics | Summary snapshot

Vaccines

Therapeutics

30

202

candidates currently in clinical trials

candidates currently in clinical trials

6

4

candidates currently in Phase III;in race for EUA1,2 starting Q4'20,
contingent on safety and efficacy profiles

key candidates currently under EUA1,5 in selectcountries; ensuring broad clinical trials, safety
and efficacy key for further approvals

Q2'21

Q4'20

expected start of broader distribution(beyond targeted population segments)3
in the best-case scenario4

expected broader availability6

1. Emergency Use Authorization; nomenclature may differ across different geographies.; 2. EUA for BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna est. by Q4 '20, University of Oxford/AstraZeneca est. between Q4 '20 and Q1 '21; Sinovac, Sinopharm/BIPB,
Sinopharm/WIPB est. by Q1 '21; 3. Anyone who wants a vaccine can get a prescription; 4. Estimated for the US; will be subject to a set of preconditions including phase 3 results, manufacturing & distribution setup and scale-up, etc.;
5. EUA for Remdesivir in the US, Japan, Australia (non-exhaustive), Convalescent plasma therapy in the US (non-exhaustive); Dexamethasone in UK, Japan (non-exhaustive); Favipiravir in India, Russia, China (non-exhaustive);
6. First few million doses; Remdesivir & Gilead to ramp up availability to 2M by Dec 2020; the US has secured 500k already and pre-booked 90% of next 2 months capacity; Additionally, availability basis prescription has started in selectcountries like India, Japan, European Union, etc; Gilead has also signed non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements with generic pharmaceutical manufacturers based in Egypt, India and Pakistan; Dexamethasone widely available but
used generally in severe patients requiring supplemented oxygen support. Source: FDA, WHO, Milken Institute; Company websites, BCG

9Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Best-case timelines as of 21 August 2020

COVID-19 vaccine | An unprecedented response globally on
scale and speed of R&D efforts

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES

As of 21 August 2020

Non-exhaustive

Large number of candidates in trials

Multi-technology approaches being pursued
Key vaccine technologies for COVID-19
207

95
55

56

Ebola

DenguePolio

108

Tuberculosis

126

Malaria

COVID-19

Large funding commitments by governments & global
institutions toward vaccine development:
US ($5.8B), Germany ($1.0B), UK ($0.5B), etc. (select examples)(EvaluatePharma, WHO, Milken Institute, Policy Cures Research, Press Search)

Traditional technologies
Protein sub-unit (Immunestimulating component of the virus)

Whole virus (Inactivated

80+ candidates in trials

10+ candidates in trials

Prior vaccines: Malaria,
Hepatitis B, etc.

Prior vaccines: Dengue, Polio,
TB, etc.

form of the whole virus)

Novel technologies
Viral vector (Replicating andnon-replicating approaches)

Nucleic acid (Genetic info. forcells to make "safe" viral proteins)

40+ candidates in trials

40+ candidates in trials

Prior vaccines: Ebola

Prior vaccines: None2(Milken Institute, NIAID3, NCBI4, Press search)

1. For COVID-19, the numbers are expected to increase with time; 2. No vaccines yet approved for humans, however vaccines exist for animal diseases: West Nile virus for horses, Avian flu for poultry, etc.;
3. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; 4. National Center for Biotechnology Information
Source: EvaluatePharma, WHO, Milken Institute, Research Professional News, Bloomberg, Press search, BCG

10

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Comparison of # of vaccine candidates1 in clinical andpre-clinical trials across diseases

Vaccine development life cycle | Current development moving atturbo-charged pace; 12-18 month timeline unprecedented

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES

As of 21 August 2020

0
0

1
1

2
2

Traditional paradigm
takes > 5 years

3
3

4
4

Potential accelerated
pathway for COVID-19
vaccine1

Phase 1

Mfg. &
dist.
setup
Small-scale clinical
trial material

Exploratory/
pre-clinical

Phase 1

Phase 2

10
10

Mfg. & dist.
setup

Small-scale clinical trial material

Exploratory/
pre-clinical5

Phase 3

Approval

Mfg. & dist.
scale-up

Mfg. & distribution
scale-up

Current outlook points to a 12-18 monthtimeline from exploratory to start ofphased approvals & assumes nosignificant R&D challenges

Phase 3Phased approvals2

Phase 2

Limited preclinical testing

EUA3 for a small
volume release

Start Ph 2 with Potential surrogate
interim Ph 1 data of efficacy study4

For early availability and access,manufacturing has been kick-started
even before granting of EUAs3
Best-case scenario

1. Estimated best-case scenario, with stages developed simultaneously; 2. Phased approvals are sequential approvals for specific segments of population based on Phase 3 results; 3. Emergency Use Authorization; 11
4. There are no clear markers associated with long term protection against COVID-19; to support a surrogate endpoint, these markers would have to be defined; Source: FDA, CDC, Press search, BCG

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Years

Vaccine fast movers | 6 vaccine candidates already in Phase III;in the US, two candidates currently in race for EUA1 in Q4 2020

207

~30,000

Universityof Oxford,
AstraZeneca

Stage: 1/2 | Enrollment: 1077
Safety: Mild side effects (fever,fatigue, injection site pain, etc.)~10,500

11

Sinovac

Stage: 1/2 | Enrollment: 743
Safety: Mild side effects (injection
site pain most common)~9,000177

BIPB6 &
SinopharmStage: 1/2 | Enrollment: 2088
Safety: No interim report available~15,000

WIPB7 &
SinopharmStage: 1/2 | Enrollment: 1400
Safety: Favorable safety profile
without a single adverse event~15,000

Phase I/II

10

Safety, side effects/dose

Russia has registered the world’s first vaccine,
Sputnik V; validation from global healthagencies5 pending on safety and efficacy data
Johnson & Johnson plans to start Phase III trials
in early September targeting ~60k enrollments(WHO, Milken Institute)

We arehere

Targeted Ph III
Enrollment

Stage: 1 (2) | Enrollment: 45 (600)
Safety: Flu-like symptoms (fever,nausea, and chills)

3

Pre-ClinicalPrevious phase details

Moderna;
NIH

Phase II3

Phase I4

Potential timelines for candidates currently in Phase III
Stage: 1/2 | Enrollment: 60
Safety: Fever most common
systemic event

6

Effectiveness/safety

WHO Phase III classification

BioNTech,
PfizerPhase III2

Confirm effectivenessAs of 21 Aug 2020

~29,500

Expected EUA1
by US FDA
subject toinitial phase 3
readouts

Jun

Jul

Aug

Start of phase III trials

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan '21

Start of phased approval process8

1. Emergency Use Authorization conditional to safety & efficacy profiles; 2. Ph III trials involve a much larger population to test efficacy & safety of vaccine; 3. Phase II studies
involve larger number of subjects & are intended to provide preliminary information about a vaccine’s ability to produce its desired effect; 4. Phase I clinical studies involve
initial testing in small numbers (e.g., 20) to test the properties of a vaccine; 5. WHO, Association of Clinical Trials Organizations, etc.; 6. Beijing Institute of Biological Products;
7. Wuhan Institute of Biological Products; 8. Trials are expected to continue till end of 2021 & 2022 for different candidates, as per WHO, clinicaltrials.gov. However, companies
are expected to start applications with initial phase 3 results; Source: Guggenheim, Wells Fargo, Bloomberg, NYT, RBC, SVB, Milken Institute, Morgan Stanley, NIH, JPMorgan
Chase, WHO (21 Aug), Press Search, BCG

12

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Vaccine candidates acrossdevelopment phases

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES

Broad distribution timelines | Current best-case scenario for US points tostart of broad distribution in Q2 2021, subject to a set of pre-conditions
As of 21 August 2020

US example
Q1
2021

Q2
2021

Vaccine key success factors incl. efficacy, safety, etc.
Regulatory authorization
Financing

Preconditions

In-country delivery

Demand generation

Expected timelines inthe best-case scenario

Distribution to targeted
population segments4

50% efficacy threshold set by FDA;
3 vaccines granted fast track designation

800M cum. doses1 of 6 vaccines pre-booked
McKesson announced as central distributor;
Becton Dickinson as supplier for syringes
HHS2 developing tiered distribution strategy

Fair and equitable allocation

Sub-segment
distribution

Current view

$5.8B allocated for development, mfg. & dist.

Manufacturing set-up & scale-up

Emergency Use
Authorization

End
2021

Approval for broader
distribution540-60%3 of Americans willing to get vaccinatedVaccination of larger
population6

Approval for broader
Reaching herd immunity
usage & beginning of levels leading to significant
distribution at large scale reduction7 in virus spread
Deep-dive on following pages

Note: The timeline represented is highly dependent on Phase III vaccine results and hence, subject to change; 1. US has currently pre-booked 300M of Oxford Univ. (Ph 3), 100M each of Sanofi (pre-clinical), Novavax (Ph 1/2), BioNtech(Ph 3), Moderna (Ph 3), J&J (Ph 1/2) and can buy additional doses if required; Actual cumulative quantity will depend upon vaccine approval; 2. United States Department of Health and Human Services; 3. As per survey conducted by
Yahoo News & YouGov; as per US 50 state COVID survey conducted with 19,058 individuals from 10-26 July; 4. Population subsegments like frontline workers, segments most impacted, certain age groups etc. or as defined by the approval;
5. Approval & distribution may be phased depending upon phase 3 results; broad distribution implies that anyone who wants vaccine can get a prescription; 6. 60-80% of the population, which is also the threshold for herd immunity; 7.
Depends on the rigor of other interventions such as wearing mask, social distancing; Source: FDA, HHS, Press search, BCG

13

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Q4
2020

Potential
milestones

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES

Vaccine key success factors | Approval authorization
and broader distribution driven by three key factors

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES

Efficacy1

SafetyDuration of immunity

Validation data currently limited; WHOtarget profile suggests a preferred2
efficacy of 70%+;
FDA recommends 50%+ for approval

Limited data available including that acrosspopulation sub-groups3; initial reportssuggest acceptable safety profile (mayinduce short term discomfort in some cases)

Limited data available;
3 months of immunity observed inrecovered patients

Efficacy data for population sub-groups
like children, pregnant women, elderly, etc.
may be limited and will have an impact on
adoption

Few trials have displayed grade 3
adverse reactions4 at higher doses;
data from large enrollment trials(Phase 3) awaited

WHO target profile suggests a preferred5
duration of 1 year; current claims forleading vaccines lie between 1 and 2
years6

While target efficacy levels seem low, they
are comparable to influenza vaccine
efficacies of 40-60%

Traditional paradigm takes 5-10+ years
from start of pre-clinical trials to gaining
regulatory approval

Recent studies show evidence of apositive t-cell immune response that
could be long-lived

1. The potential of a drug/vaccine to protect from a disease in controlled clinical trials; 2. WHO target profile minimum efficacy expectation is 50%+; 3. Sub-groups like children, pregnant women, elderly, etc; 4.
Severe or medically significant but not immediately life- threatening; 5. WHO target profile minimum duration expectation is 6 months; 6. Russia's recently registered vaccine, Sputnik V, claims to provide
immunity for up to 2 years; Source: WHO, BBC, Science Magazine, Bloomberg, Livemint, FiercePharma, BCG

14

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As of 21 August 2020

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINES“…if you had 70, 80 percent
efficacy and enough of the
population is vaccinated with it,
COVID-19 will have nowhere to go,
and it will just go away. That's
what happened for smallpox. It's
what happened for measles, withthe exception of the occasionaltimes we've had re-importation."
Dr. Peter Marks, Director FDA CBER1

Immediate priorities that emerge basis vaccine efficacy outcomes
Vaccine with lower efficacy (50%-80%)

1

Ensuring consistent communication for adoption & continued implementation of
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like masks, social distancing, etc.

2

Continued impetus for development of alternative (higher efficacy) vaccines
and therapeutics, and rapid testing technologies

3

Sustaining demand generation in appropriate population segments;
and investing to maximize public health benefit

Non-exhaustive

Vaccine with higher efficacy (>80%)

1

Maintaining sufficient supply and resources for broad administration to meet
initial surge in demand

2

Building a tiered distribution strategy to prioritize vulnerable andimpacted populations in a supply constrained scenario

3

Continued consistent communication to ensure adoption across population segments andkeeping skeptics at bay

15
1. FDA CBER: FDA Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. Source: FDA, BCG

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Vaccine efficacy
expected to impact
demand dynamics& healthcare
response priorities

Manufacturing set-up & scale-up | Developers rapidly augmenting
capacity; several governments putting mechanisms for early accessAs of 21 August 2020

Non-exhaustive

Estimated vaccine production capacity (B doses)

Key considerations

Cumulative production capacity subject to vaccine approval
0.8

2.2

Merck; Themis Bioscience

1.4

Sanofi, GSK

1.3

Novavax 0.1

0.9

1.0

BioNTech; Pfizer 0.1

0.9

1.0

Moderna
Johnson & Johnson
Sinopharm
Sinovac Biotech

Several countries andglobal organizations
pre-booking capacities
to ensure early access

3.0

Country-specific tiered distribution
strategies and deployment prioritizing
vulnerable and impacted populations
Specific transportation & storage
requirements (e.g., cold storage that
goes as low as -800C4)

1.0
0.2

0.8

1.0

0.2 0.2 0.4

End 2020

0.2

End 2021

EU Commission:
1.1B cum. of 5
vaccines1,2 for EU
members

US govt.:
800M cum. of 6
vaccines1,2 under"Operation Warp
Speed"COVAX facility:
1B+ cum. of 2 vaccines1,3
for low & middle income
countries

Resources5 required foradministration and follow-ups(e.g., booster shots) to broad population
Global collaboration to ensure
equitable distribution to low andmiddle income countries

Note: Actual production will depend upon the vaccine approval timelines. Some developers have already started manufacturing to be ready with supply after approval;
1. Numbers represented are cumulative; actual number of doses will depend upon approval; 2. Option to purchase additional vaccines if required; 3. Target is to provide 2B doses of theapproved vaccines by 2021; 4. For Moderna, Pfizer vaccine; 5.Manpower, logistics & funds; Source: European Commission, Press search, BCG

16

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Oxford Univ.; AstraZeneca(select examples)1

VACCINE DYNAMICS& TIMELINESTherapeutics | Effective therapeutic treatments could reduce the strain
on healthcare systems; two candidates currently under EUA1 in the US
As of 23 Aug 2020

US Example: 4 therapeutic candidates for potential COVID-19 treatment

314
Phase IV
Phase III

Phase II

Phase I30

1 | Remdesivir

2 | Plasma Therapy

3 | Dexamethasone

4 | Favipiravir~30% drop in recovery
time

8.7% mortality rate2 forpatients transfused
within 3 days of diagnosis
versus 11.9% in patientstransfused after 3 days

Mortality risk reduction
in severe patients3

Normalization of clinicalsigns4 is 40% faster

Reduced 28 day
mortality rate by 17%Longer median time to
first use of oxygen

43Interimreport view

Q4 '20

TBC6

Widely available7

Q4 '20112

Exp. startof broadavailability5
Authorization
Status

EUA1 based on
rigorous clinical trials

EUA1; rigorous randomized
clinical trials underway

N/aGranted clearance for
expanded phase 2 trials8>50% patientsdischarged in 2 weeks

17
Non exhaustive

Pre-Clinical112(Milken Institute, WHO)

Challenges
to accelerated
approvals

Establishing proof of efficacy
with manageable systemic events

Ensuring broad clinical trials
with randomly assigned participants

E.g. EUA1 issued for HCQ9 was
revoked both in the US and EU
given lack of drug efficacy

E.g. EUA1 issued for plasma therapy;
might limit enrollment for a placebo
trial as per experts10

1. Emergency Use Authorization; 2. 7-day mortality rate; 3. Patients requiring supplemental oxygen support; 4. Clinical signs include temperature, oxygen
saturation, cough, which are compared with control arm; 5. First few million doses; not limited to restricted segments; 6. U.S. government launched nationwide
program to collect & provide convalescent plasma to patients in need, led by Mayo Clinic; 7. As anti-inflammatory medication; 8. Expanded phase 2 clinical
trials to evaluate the safety & efficacy of the antiviral for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks in long-term care facilities; 9. Hydroxychloroquine; 10. Art Caplan, 17
NYU School of Medicine; Source: ClinicalTrials.gov, Milken Institute, WHO, NEJM, RAPS, CNN, The New York Times, Company Websites, BCG

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

300+ treatments
undergoing trials

THERAPEUTICDYNAMICS &TIMELINES

Multiple scenarios need to be considered as leaders think about their agenda
Several factors and their interplay to drive
potential scenarios for the new reality

IllustrativeNon-exhaustive

Safety performance: As trials move to larger/broader populations,do any safety signals emerge (at all or in any subgroups)
Vaccine /therapeutic
characteristics

Efficacy: Observed efficacy rates (e.g., 50% vs 90+%); consistency
across vaccines
Duration of immunity: Duration of natural immunity; durationof immunity from vaccine
Vaccine & therapeutic interplay: Approval timelines & effectivenessof therapeutics could potentially shift the need of vaccine

Supply chain
readinessSocietal
response

Scenario X
High efficacy,robust safety, highadoption, rapid SC3
ramp up, etc.

Manufacturing & distribution: Scale-up of required infrastructure1
and resources for timely manufacturing & widespread distribution
NPI2 adoption rates: Ongoing adherence to social distancing, mask
wearing, social gathering restrictions, etc.
Consumer uptake: Adoption rates; adherence levels togovernment messages/ mandates

1. Manufacturing capacity and supply chains, transportation, cold storage, in-country delivery, etc;
2. NPI: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; 3 SC: Supply Chain
Source: BCG……
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Low efficacy,limited safety data,
low demand, supply
constraints, etc.

Scenario 2

Critical for public and businessleaders to think through thescenario implications and prepare
requisite action agenda
Focus for the next edition
18

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Potential scenarios

Development landscape and timelines
Pre-conditions for broad availability and distribution

Updated analyses and impact
Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
Economic and business indicators

19

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics

De-averaged view | Brazil & US continue to have highest
daily cases per million population among top economies

EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION& VIRUS MONITORING

As of 21 August 2020
Data shown only for top 10 economies by GDP (with >10 daily cases/M)1220

Cumulative #test/case incases (K) last 15 days3

200
180

Brazil

3,502

2

US

5,574

14

India

2,906

12

France

230

94

60

UK

322

160

40

Germany

229

97

160
140
120
100
80

20
0
Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

21 Aug

1. Excludes China, Japan, Italy & Canada as these countries' daily cases/M are less than 10; 2. Calculated as a 7-day rolling average; 3. Change in number of tests/change in number of cases in last 15 days;
testing data is not updated daily for some countries, data represented is within last 1 week; Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG

20

Copyright © 2020
2020 byby Boston
Boston Consulting
Consulting Group.
Group.All
Allrights
rightsreserved.
reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.2.

Daily cases per million population2

Economic forecasts point toward a severe downturn in 2020;
most countries expected to rebound to 2019 GDP only by end of 2021

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 21 August 2020

GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)
Europe

China

112

112.0

108

109.3
108.0
105.9

104

103.3
101.0
100.5

100

94.9
93.9

92

2021 forecast
vs 2019

99.3

98.9
97.7

96

88

India1

Japan

96.1
93.6

92.0

2019

2020

2021

96-99%
2019 GDP levels (Index)

95.2
95.0

96.0
94.2

98.7

98.5
96.5
96.2
95.3

101.6
101.2
99.4

96.8
95.5

93.9

92.8

90.9
89.8

2019

2020

2021

95-99%
Forecast IMF (Jun 24, 2020)

2019

2020

2021

106-112%
Forecast World Bank (Jun 8, 2020)

2019

2020

2021

2019

95-99%

2020

2021

99-102%

Forecast range from leading banks2

Note: As of reports dated 31 March 2020 to 21 August 2020, YoY forecasts; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range from forecasts (where available)of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG

21

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

US

Unemployment numbers declining or flattening out;in the US, temporary job starting to come back

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 16 August 2020 | UK Example

As of 31 July 2020 | US Example

In the UK, number of jobs
furloughed is flattening out

In the US, temporary job losses continue to decline;
permanent job losses are now flattening out# of jobs furloughed (M)
10

40
34
30

27
23

35

8

30

15

5

18M

15

10

9M

4

10

10

20

6

20

20

Number of unemployed people (millions in every month)20
023-Apr 1124- 7-Jun 21-Jun 5-Jul 19-Jul 2-Aug 16-Aug
Employers
May Mayleveraging
0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
furloughprogram (M)# of jobs furloughed
Total claims value

5

3M

0
Nov'19 Dec'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20

Source: US Department of Labor – Employment Situation Report (07 August 2020); HMRC Coronavirus Statistics – UK Government

Temporary job losses

Permanent job losses
22

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.2.

Total claims value (B pounds)

Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; lower recovery of
workplace mobility indicates continued adoption of work from home

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 16 August 2020

Non-exhaustive

US

Sweden

Italy

0

0

0

-50

-50

-50

-100

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Germany

-100
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

South Korea

-100
Feb

0

0

-50

-50

-50

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Lockdown started4

Jul

Aug

-100

Lockdown easing4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Japan

0

-100

Mar

Apr

May

Workplace mobility

Jun

Jul

Aug

-100

Public transit mobility

Feb

Retail & recreation

1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers,
theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas; 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks
during Feb 15–Aug 16 2020); Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 21 Aug 2020; Press search; BCG

23

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.2.

Workplace1, public transit2 and retail & recreation3 mobility compared to baseline of January to mid-February 2020

Business activity1 across many sectors has currently rebounded
to previous year levels
As of 09 August 2020

Aggregated for GER, FR, UK, ITA, SPA, US, BR, CN, JP

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

Non-exhaustive

BCG Economic Recovery Pulse Check (ERPC)
Aggregate activity1 across time (YoY)
120

Technology, Media& Telecom (TMT)
Materials & processindustry4 (MPI)
Financial
Institutions (FI)Engineered Products& Infrastructure 5 (EPI)
Automotive &Mobility (AM)

110

100

Normal state

90

80

Energy6Transportation & Logistics

0
Jan

Feb

Lockdown started2

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Healthcare witnessed stronger
rebound due to increased
demand during current crisis
TMT, MPI, FI, EPI & AM saw
moderate recovery; currently
above previous year levels
Energy, Transportation &Logistics continue to remain
below pre-crisis levels;
early signs of rebound seen in
Transportation & Logistics but
still far from recovery

09-AugLockdown easing2

Note: ERPC tracks industries in EU5 (GER, FR, UK, ITA, SPA), US, Brazil, China and Japan. Index value of 100 indicates a normal activity compared to previous year's period; 1.Sector level activity based on 100+
data sources, e.g. financial index, macro economic data, employment, sector confidence, specific data source by sector etc.; 2. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates across countries except China;
China first went into lockdown starting 23rd Jan until April; 3. Medical Tech, Biopharma, Consumer Health (excluding Hospitals); 4. Chemicals, Metals and Mining, Building Materials, Forest Products, Paper andPackaging; 5. Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure, Machinery & Industrial Automation; 6. Oil & Gas, Energy & Utilities; Source: BCG

24

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Healthcare3

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

Manufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates positive momentum
As of 21 August 2020

Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis
Germany

Neutrallevel = 50

2

1

1
0

-2

China1

Neutrallevel = 50

1
-5

-2

-5

-10

Jan

Feb Mar-14
Apr May

Jun

July

Jan

Feb Mar-16 -13
Apr May

Jun

July

2
-1
-10
Jan

Feb Mar

-5

-3

-19
Apr MayJun

Lockdown started

Lockdown easingJan

Neutrallevel = 50

July

Sweden-14% to 0%

1

1

Feb MarApr May

Jun

July

-8

-9

-7

Apr May

JunSouth Korea-1-29% to -15%

1

1

-14

Neutrallevel = 50

≤ -30%

2

0

-5

Italy

Neutrallevel = 50

Neutrallevel = 50

0

-1

-6

Jan

Feb Mar

-1

-2

-3
July

Japan
2

> 0%

3

1
-7

Jan

Feb Mar-2-10-13
Apr MayJun

July

Neutrallevel = 50

Jan

-5

Feb Mar

-8

-5
-12

-10

Apr MayJun

July

Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is
considered to be positive sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment.
1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Source: Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI SA; Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA;
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Italy Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI SA; Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA; Bloomberg

25

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.2.

USPassenger vehicle sales sees limited rebound,
except for China and South Korea due to local market dynamics

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 21 August 2020

Monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, YOY % change vs 2019
Germany

China2

0%
-11%
-44%
Jan

Feb

Mar

-56%
Apr

-40%

-38%

May

Jun

-19%

-7%

-5%

-11%
-38%
-61%

July

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

-49%

May

-32%

7%

2%

9%

May

Jun

July

-2%

-20%

-48%
-82%

Jun

July

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

South Korea3

Italy

46%
-6%

-8%
-48%

Jan

Feb

-85%

-98%

Mar

Apr

May

-24%

Jun

-11%

July

Sweden≤ -30%-29% to -15%

Lockdown started-14% to 0%

Lockdown easing

> 0%

-18%

12%

13%

Apr

May

-14%

-20%

Jan

Feb

Mar

-10%

-9%

8%

Jun

July

Japan

-6%

-4%

-9%

-22%
-37%

Jan

11%

Feb

Mar

Apr

-12%

-13%

-47%

-50%

May

-23%

-30%

Jun

July

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

1. Passenger vehicle sales includes data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, and vans; 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase
restriction in high tier cities and extended NEV subsidies; 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars),
several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models and the increased appreciation by the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19,
supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into 'camping cars'. Source: Marklines, BCG

July
26

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

US1

Retail goods sales (excl. auto and fuel) have rebounded topre-COVID-19 levels across most of the countries

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 21 August 2020

Growth of total retail goods sales (excl. auto & fuel)1, YOY % change vs 2019Jan
China2

Feb
-16%

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

-12%

-6%

-1%

2%

-2%

Japan

0%

2%

1%

-6%

-1%

10%

US

3%

4%

7%

-6%

3%

8%

UK

1%

0%

-4%

-19%

-11%

1%

Italy

1%

2%

-18%

-27%

-11%

-2%

Sweden

4%

4%

1%

-1%

2%

4%

≤ -30%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

Retail goods sales have currently
rebounded to pre-COVID-19
levels in US, China, Japan & UK
8%

Italy has shown signs ofrecovery, but is still slightly
behind last year’s sales
Sweden hasn't shown asignificant impact of COVID-19 on
retail goods sales> 0%

1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; 2. For China, combined value of Jan & Feb is available;
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

Further reading
Reigniting Retail Demand27

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care,home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services

De-averaged view | Retail store sales in China have rebounded across
categories; apparel sales continue to be impacted

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

As of 21 August 2020

Retail store sales' breakdown by category, YoY % change vs 2019
Personal care & cosmetics stores
Feb Mar Apr May June Jul

Feb Mar Apr May June Jul
1

China 10%
Japan
4%
US
4%
UK
1%
Italy
3%
Sweden 2%

19% 18% 11% 11% 7%-1% 0% 2% 3%
29% 12% 15% 12% 11%
10% 5% 5% 5%
4% 0% 1% -1%
5% -2% 0% 2%

Apparel stores2

China -14% -12% 4% 13% 21% 9%
9% 2% 3% -3% 3%Japan
0% 6% -10% -9% -1% 3%
US-9% 0% -38% -35% -1%
UK
1% -13% -13% -14% -10%
Italy
Sweden 5% 20% -3% -5% 3%
1Home appliance stores3

Feb Mar Apr May June Jul
China1 -31% -35% -19% -1% 0% -3%-4% -23% -54% -34% -6%
Japan
1% -49% -86% -62% -25% -21%
US
0% -35% -67% -60% -34%
UK
0% -64% -88% -43% -16%
Italy
Sweden -2% -34% -37% -30% -22%
≤ -30%-29% to -15%

-14% to 0%

Feb Mar Apr May JuneJul

China1 -30% -30% -9% 4% 10% -2%
5% -10% -9% 9% 26%
Japan
0% -18% -53% -37% -20% -3%
US
0% -11% -50% -31% 0%
UK
2% -43% -55% -15% 2%
Italy
Sweden 8% 1% 9% 16% 17%

China's sales have almost
rebounded to year-ago run rates
Retail store sales recovery driven by
F&B across all countries
Personal care & cosmetics category
sales have rebounded to last year
levels except in Italy
Apparels category saw the largest
decline; far from recovery acrosscountries except China & Japan
Home appliances sales showing
signs of rebound; continue to behigher than last year in Sweden> 0%

Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general merchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equip ~13%.
Sector classification & mix may be different across countries; 1. For China, Feb data includes both Jan & Feb, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.;
3. Includes Audio video & home appliances stores; Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan

28

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Food & beverage stores5 sectors currently above pre-crisis TSR levels;
6 sectors with significant share1 of companies with >15% default risk
As of 21 August 2020

Based on top S&P
Global 1200 companies

Categories based on TSR and net debt/enterprise value2

Healthier sectors

Pressured sectors

Vulnerable sectors

Sem iconductors
Retailing
Pharm aFood/staples RetailHousehold Products
Tech Hardware
SoftwareMaterials
Health Equipm ent
MediaProf. Services
Capital Goods
Food & Beverage
Telecom
Financials
Auto
Durable Goods
Utilities
Transport
Insurance
Hospitality
Banks
Real Estate
Energy21 Feb 2020
- 21 August 2020

-30%
-40%
-20%
-10%
-16%
-26%
-30%
-32%
-31%
-36%
-30%
-35%
-23%
-17%
-35%
-41%
-39%
-30%
-34%
-39%
-44%
-39%
-39%
-52%

12%
6%
3%
2%
2%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-9%
-10%
-11%
-12%
-14%
-14%
-15%
-22%
-25%
-28%
-30%
-34%

7 August 2020
- 21 August 2020

Companies with probability of default >15%4
21 Feb 2020

21 August 2020

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9%
4%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
0%

0%
35%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
4%
0%
14%
0%
0%
32%
0%
36%
4%
13%
15%

Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS definitions; 1. Retailing, Auto, Transport, Hospitality, Real estate and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies withprobability of default > 15%; 2. Net debt & enterprise value from latest available balance sheet; Categories defined based on comparison with S&P Global 1200 median: healthy = TSR & debt/EV >median, pressured = TSR or debt/EV < median, vulnerable = TSR & debt/EV < median; 3. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration ofoutbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 21 Aug 2020 based on median; 4. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG

7 August 2020
- 21 August 2020

Pos. trend ≥ 2%
No sig. change
Neg. trend ≥ 2%29

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.2.

TSR performance3
21 Feb 2020
- 20 Mar 2020

ECONOMIC &BUSINESS IMPACT

Edition #14

Edition #13

Edition #12

Edition #11

US: Current Dynamics
and How to Win the Fight

Global Restart:
Key Dynamics

Ensuring an Inclusive
RecoveryAccelerating Climate
Actions in the New Reality

Edition #10

Edition #9

Edition #8

Edition #7

Value Protection and
Acceleration Roadmap to
Win in the New Reality

Future of Global Tradeand Supply Chains

Galvanizing Nations for
the New Reality

Sensing Consumer Behavior
and Seizing Demand Shifts

Edition #6

Edition #5

Edition #4

Edition #3

Restructuring Costs, andManaging Cash and Liquidity

Revamping Organizations
for the New Reality

Accelerating Digital &Technology Transformation

Emerging Stronger
from the Crisis

Source: BCG

30

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25
2020
Version
15.1
21 August
July 2020
Version
13.1.

Additional perspectives on COVID-19

Clinical Trial

A systematic study of new tests and treatments toevaluates their effects on human health outcomes

Phase IV

Emergency Use
Authorization

Authority granted to facilitate availability of an
unapproved product, or an unapproved use of an
approved product, during a state of emergency

Studies performed after medical intervention1 has
been approved & marketed for sale; conducted to
identify adverse effects that may not have been
apparent in prior trials

PlaceboControlled Trial

Clinical trials involving two groups – one group getsthe active treatment, the other gets the placebo(inactive drug with no effect)

Herd Immunity

Resistance to spread of contagious disease within apopulation that results if high proportion is immune,
especially through vaccination

Pre-ClinicalStudy

Testing of drug/vaccine in test tube and animals to
see if it triggers an immune response

Nucleic Acid
VaccineDirect introduction of naked plasmid DNA/RNA (i.e.
without any associated lipid, protein or carbohydrate)
to elicit an immune response

Repurposed
Drug

Usage of existing/known drugs and compounds totreat new disease

Subunit
VaccineA vaccine made from components (typically surface
protein) of viruses or bacteria instead of the wholeorganism

Efficacy

The potential of a drug/vaccine to protect from adisease in controlled clinical trials; expressed as %Phase IFirst human trials of a medical intervention1 in asmall group of people to evaluate a safe dosage range
and identify side effects

Phase II

Assessment of short-term safety of medical
intervention1 in patients; given to hundreds of people

Viral Vector
VaccineViral vector vaccine use live viruses to carry DNA into
human cells

Phase III

Trials in large (thousands) and possibly varied patientgroups to determine short & long-term safety-efficacy

Whole Virus
vaccineA vaccine made from viruses and bacteria that havebeen killed through heat, chemical or radiation

1. Experimental drug, vaccine, etc.; Source: CDC, WHO, NCBI, Oxford

31

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 25 August 2020 Version 15.1

Glossary of terms

Disclaimer

The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of
the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any
person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG. These materials serve only as
the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and may not be relied on as astand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any Third Party to, rely on these materials
for any purpose whatsoever. To the fullest extent permitted by law (and except to the extent otherwise agreed in a signed
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