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Intraseasonal Variability in Diurnal Rainfall over New Guinea and the Surrounding
Oceans during Austral Summer
HIROKI ICHIKAWA
Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JapanTETSUZO YASUNARI
Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, and Frontier Research System for
Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan(Manuscript received 21 November 2006, in final form 9 November 2007)
ABSTRACT
High-resolution Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data for six wet seasons (December–March) were used to investigate the time and space structure of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over andaround New Guinea, a major island of the Maritime Continent. The diurnal cycle shows a systematic
modulation associated with intraseasonal variability in the large-scale circulation pattern, with regimes
associated with low-level easterlies or westerlies over the island. Lower-tropospheric easterly (westerly)wind components correspond to periods of inactive (active) convection over the islands that are associatedwith the passage of intraseasonal atmospheric disturbances such as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).
A striking feature is the diurnal rainfall that develops over the central mountain ranges in the evening andpropagates toward the southwest (northeast) of the island with an inferred phase speed of about 2–3 m s⫺1
under low-level easterly (westerly) flow. In the case of the easterly regime, diurnal rainfall is strongly
concentrated over the southwestern part of the island, inhibited from spreading offshore southwest of New
Guinea. Under the westerly regime, in contrast, the rainfall area spread far and wide along the low-level
westerlies from the island toward the Pacific Ocean. Significant offshore rainfall propagation extending
from the island appears during the night over the north-northeastern coast and moves with a phase speedof about 7–8 m s⫺1, reaching the open ocean the following day. Possible processes for controlling thevariability in diurnal rainfall through the interaction between large-scale circulation and previously denoted
complex local circulation over the island are discussed.

1. Introduction
A diurnal cycle of convection and precipitation isprominent over the Maritime Continent. The strong
diurnal signal is characterized by a distinct land–sea
contrast between evening and morning that is related tosurface heating (Murakami 1983; Nitta and Sekine
1994; Yang and Slingo 2001). The cloud–rainfall cycle is
not homogenous over all islands, however, because ofcomplex local circulations related to the peculiar orography of the islands (Ohsawa et al. 2001). New Guinea,
a major island in the Maritime Continent, has a moun-

Corresponding author address: Hiroki Ichikawa, Hydrospheric
Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Furo-cho,
Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan.
E-mail: ichikawa@hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp
DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1784.1© 2008 American Meteorological Society

tain range that extends northwest to southeast acrossthe island (Fig. 1). Peak elevations exceed 3000 m, andorographic forcing influences the patterns of diurnal
rainfall over the island (Zhou and Wang 2006). Typically, convective rainfall systems develop over both thecentral mountains and coastal areas early in the afternoon. These systems subsequently migrate to remaining inland areas (Liberti et al. 2001; Nesbitt and Zipser
2003; Hirose and Nakamura 2005; Zhou and Wang2006). Liberti et al. (2001) also described offshore
propagation of cloud systems that move northward toward the open ocean. This propagation was evident up
to 600 km off the coast of the island. Propagation ofdiurnal rainfall appears over other islands as well, andis a unique feature of the Maritime Continent (Yangand Slingo 2001). The detailed characteristics of such
diurnal propagation have been described for major is-

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FIG. 1. Orography over New Guinea. The dashed rectangular box shows the area within
which the area mean zonal wind time series were calculated. The cross-island rectangle denotes the calculation domain for the time–distance cross diagrams in Fig. 10.

lands such as Sumatra and Borneo (Mori et al. 2004;
Sakurai et al. 2005; Ichikawa and Yasunari 2006).
General features of the diurnal variation over theislands are modified as the large-scale circulation
changes under the influence of scale interactions. The
circulation patterns near the Maritime Continent are
subject to intraseasonal variability related to the passage of the intraseasonal-scale disturbances associatedwith the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO; Madden
and Julian 1971, 1972) and seasonal changes in circulation. Recently, Ichikawa and Yasunari (2006) showedthat the rainfall over Borneo that propagates to theleeward side of the island is associated with the largescale low-level easterly or westerly tropospheric windsthat vary at intraseasonal time scales associated with
the MJO. Modulation in the diurnal propagation signal
also occurs over Sumatra; eastward propagation of convection accompanies only low-level westerlies related
to the passage of large-scale disturbances, whereas
westward propagation of convection occurs year-round(Sakurai et al. 2005). The timing and duration of convection also vary in association with the passage of intraseasonal disturbance. Previous studies using satellite
cloud imagery have shown that the amplitude of thediurnal cycle is strongest during the convectively inactive phase of the MJO, and that it decreases during theactive phase (Sui and Lau 1992; Chen and Takahashi
1995). Further investigation, including a regional-scale
study, is needed to reveal details of the dynamics ofconvection and rainfall over the entire Maritime Continent.
This study examines intraseasonal variations in diurnal rainfall over New Guinea and the adjacent oceans.

The focus here is on the austral summer season (December–March) when large-scale convection is enhanced by the southward migration of the intertropicalconvergence zone (ITCZ). Section 2 outlines the data
used in this study and the methods used to composite
the data. Section 3 uses composite analysis results todescribe the time–space structure of rainfall activity
during the different circulation regimes related to intraseasonal oscillation. Section 4 includes a summaryand discussion.

2. Data and methods
The present study uses Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM) 3B42 (version 6) rainfall product(Huffman et al. 2007) for six full wet seasons (December–March) from 1998 to 2004. Data were obtained
from the TRMM Science Data and Information System(TSDIS), distributed by the National Aeronautics andSpace Administration (NASA) Goddard Distributed
Active Archive Center (DAAC). The 3B42 productcontains estimated rain rates (mm h⫺1) derived from a
combination of infrared radiation (IR), passive microwave, and radar data from TRMM and IR data fromgeostationary satellites. The data are 3 hourly andcover the domain between 50°S and 50°N, with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° ⫻ 0.25°. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–
Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIP-II) reanalysis dataset(Kanamitsu et al. 2002) was used to describe the largescale circulation field. The reanalysis dataset contains
daily averages with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° ⫻ 2.5°.

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FIG. 2. Zonal wind at 700 hPa for an area over New Guinea (rectangular box in Fig. 1)
smoothed by a 5-day running mean (crossed line) and by a 15–90-day bandpass filter (solidline). The ⫾1 standard deviations of 15–90-day filtered data in each winter are also shown.

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) datasets (Liebmann and Smith 1996) archived at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) were also used. The OLR
datasets are constructed from NOAA’s polar-orbiting
satellite data crossing over the equator in the afternoon
and have been interpolated spatially and temporally toa daily 2.5° ⫻ 2.5° grid.
This study discusses the intraseasonal modulation ofdiurnal rainfall over and around New Guinea. Changes
in convection and rainfall under different circulation
regimes are revealed by composite analyses of highresolution TRMM rainfall data and large-scale circulation field data centered on New Guinea. Figure 2 showsa time series of zonal wind at 700 hPa averaged over
New Guinea (10.0°–2.5°S, 135.0°–147.5°E; the rectangular box in Fig. 1) and smoothed by a 5-day runningmean. The wind data were further smoothed by using a
15–90-day bandpass filter as shown in Fig. 2 (solid line).
The intraseasonal variability within 15–90 days was extracted using the Lanczos filter (Duchon 1979), with the
response function exhibiting half amplitude at periodsof 15 and 90 days. Oscillations in the low-level zonal
wind associated with variations in the large-scale circulation field are a prominent feature over and around
New Guinea. Intermittent fluctuations in the low-level
flow are associated with convective variability influenced by the passage of intraseasonal time-scale distur-15 JUNE 2008

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FIG. 3. Austral summer (December–March, 1998/99–2003/04) mean fields of (a) wind at 925
hPa (vector) and pressure-coordinated vertical velocity at 500 hPa (shaded), and (b) wind at
700 hPa (vector) and OLR (shaded).

bances such as the MJO. As the MJO propagates eastward from the equatorial Indian Ocean toward the Pacific Ocean, low-level winds change from easterly towesterly over the Maritime Continent as the MJO enhances or suppresses convection. That is, low-level
equatorial westerly (easterly) winds prevail during periods of active (inactive) convection over the Maritime
Continent because of the MJO (Chang et al. 2005),
although the strongest westerlies tend to lag slightly
behind the time of strongest convection (Wheeler and
McBride 2005). This study defines the easterly andwesterly phases in the lower level as indicators thatexhibit an intraseasonal pattern. Previous studies(Ichikawa and Yasunari 2006) have also associated theeasterly and westerly phases related to the MJO withvariability in diurnal rainfall. Because the elevation of
the steep orography over the island is 2000–2500 m on
average (apart from some local maxima), zonal winds
at 700 hPa near 3000 m were used to classify the windregime. To extract the intraseasonal variation, winddata were then partitioned into easterly and westerly
regimes in the intraseasonal (15–90 day) filtered timeseries anomalies if relative maxima exceeded one standard deviation of the seasonal mean in each summer.
Within the 7 seasons lasting 121 days each, 104 (124)days were classified as easterly (westerly) phase.
TRMM 3B42 rainfall data and circulation field data
were composited in grid boxes for each classified windregime.

3. Resultsa. Differences in large-scale atmospheric conditions
To describe the clear large-scale circulation fieldchanges under the different wind regimes, we first show
the mean feature of the atmospheric condition during
the austral summer season in Fig. 3. Figure 3a shows
wind at 925 hPa and pressure-coordinated vertical ve-

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locity at 500 hPa. During the austral summer season,widespread upward motion occurs from the equatorial
Indian Ocean toward the Pacific. At lower levels (925hPa), the prevailing easterly over the Northern Hemisphere turns counterclockwise across the equator over
the Maritime Continent. The westerly thus dominatesalong the equatorial southern latitude over the islands.
The counterclockwise turning of the airflow is associated with the blocking and deflection by the land terrain of the Malay Peninsula–Sumatra (Chang et al.
2005). In addition, the conservation of potential vorticity acts to maintain the cross-equator flow (Lim andChang 1981). The significant westerly over the Maritime Continent becomes weak east of New Guinea,
meeting with the prevailing easterly that is dominant allover the Pacific. Then, low-level convergence and related midlevel upward motion, which are associatedwith the so-called South Pacific convergence zone
(SPCZ), appear over the south-central Pacific. The lowlevel convergence over the south central Pacific is associated with a surface pressure trough that appears as
a persistent feature in the austral summer climatology(Sadler et al. 1987), migrating from the northwest Pacific between spring and summer as part of a large-scale
clockwise phase rotation of surface low pressure acrossthe Indian Ocean and western Pacific (Matsumoto and
Murakami 2000). Then, meridional and zonal convergence of winds equatorward of the Siberian and North
Pacific highs occurs for the low-level trough (Matsumoto and Murakami 2002), thereby activating convection around the SPCZ. Aside from a pronounced SPCZ
south of the Maritime Continent, the prevailing westerly over the equatorial southern latitude forms a cyclonic circulation around the northern part of the Australian Continent and is associated with the Australianmonsoon trough.
The wind at 700 hPa and the OLR field during austral summer are shown in Fig. 3b. In relation to thelarge-scale monsoonal westerly at 925 hPa, the equatorial westerly dominates at 700-hPa height from the Indian Ocean toward New Guinea in the Southern Hemisphere where it becomes enclosed by the prevailingeasterly over the other regions. Much of the convective
activity occurs over the whole of the Maritime Continent, extending from the Indian Ocean toward the Pacific. The deepest convection is concentrated aroundthe major islands, centered over the Sumatra–Borneo–
Sulawesi region and over New Guinea. To the east of
New Guinea, the active convective region extends tothe southern-central Pacific.
The general features of the atmospheric condition
during austral summer are greatly changed between the
low-level wind regimes. In the case of the easterly re-

VOLUME 21

gime (Fig. 4a), large-scale upward motion appears over
the western part of the Maritime Continent. As can beobserved in the climatological features (Fig. 3a), easterly winds north of the equator change to westerlies
over the Indian Ocean to the western part of the islands
across the equator. However, the westerlies weakenwest of New Guinea, and converge with easterlies overthe Pacific Ocean. The midlevel upward motion occurs
from northern Australia to New Guinea. This upward
motion is independent of the surrounding region because widespread upward motion over the western partof the Maritime Continent weakens west of New
Guinea (⬃130°–135°E). Over the northern side of New
Guinea, the stronger ascent motion is significantly suppressed compared to the climatological large-scale upward motion over that region in Fig. 3a.
In the westerly regime (Fig. 4b), the climatologicalfeatures of the circulation field pattern are enhanced.
Apparently, the large-scale upward motion spread
broadly from around Sulawesi Island to a widespreadarea over the equatorial southern Pacific associatedwith the strengthening of the SPCZ. Cross-equatorial
westerlies extend from the islands toward the Pacific toenhance the SPCZ. The most pronounced upward motion (⬍0.08 hPa s⫺1) appears off the southeast coast of
New Guinea (⬃10°S, 150°–170°E) in the prevailingwesterlies extending from the island. The strong westerly at equatorial southern latitudes is also linked to theenhanced cyclonic circulation over the north of Australia, which suggests the intensification of the Australianmonsoon trough. Strong upward motion is thus present
over the northern tip of Australia in association withthe enhanced cyclonic circulation over northwestern
Australia.
Figure 5 shows the composite low-level wind (700hPa) and OLR for each wind regime. At 700 hPa,strong intraseasonal variability was identified, and thewind direction changes dramatically from easterly towesterly over and around New Guinea between the two
regimes. In addition to the wind pattern changes, thelarge-scale convection that is associated with the variability of the induced large-scale upward motion alsochanges considerably between the regimes. In the easterly regime, convective activity is centered over thewestern Maritime Continent around Sumatra andBorneo. The convection over the eastern Maritime
Continent extends around western New Guinea. Westerlies spread from the Indian Ocean toward the western
Maritime Continent near the equator. In contrast, eastof 130°E easterly winds prevail over New Guinea andthe western Pacific but gradually weaken in southernlatitudes west of New Guinea (⬃120°–130°E).
Under the westerly regime (Fig. 5b), the westerlies at

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FIG. 4. Wind field at 925 hPa (vector), and pressure-coordinated vertical velocity at 500hPa (shaded) for the (a) easterly and (b) westerly wind regimes.

equatorial southern latitudes further extend to the central Pacific. Enhanced convection approaches the western Pacific and then spreads around New Guinea to thesurrounding open sea. In particular, the deeper convection stretches from the north-northeast coast of the island toward the Pacific along the strong westerly belt inassociation with the enhancement in SPCZ. A prominent cyclonic circulation dominates a large area northof New Guinea compared to the summer mean. Southof New Guinea, clockwise turning of the air is evident
over northern Australia, and thus strong westerlies prevail over New Guinea in association with pronounced
cyclonic circulations in both hemispheres. It is apparent
from Figs. 4 and 5 that the changes from easterly towesterly regimes over New Guinea are characterized by
the strengthening of the SPCZ and Australian monsoon
trough that appears as a major feature in a passage of
MJO during austral summer (Wheeler and McBride
2005).
Thermodynamic conditions in the atmosphere alsochange between the two wind regimes. Figure 6 shows
composites of midtropospheric relative humidity (averaging from 700 to 400 hPa) and atmospheric instability(defined as the difference in equivalent potential temperature between 850 and 500 hPa). Over New Guinea,
the atmosphere is more humid and more stable during
the westerly regime than during the easterly regime. In
the westerly regime, wetter atmospheric conditions
spread from the western part of the Maritime Continent to the central Pacific and to the north of Australia.
Thermodynamic instability is enhanced over the northeastern part of the island under the westerly regime.
During the easterly regime, more humid air is present
over the northwestern tip to the southwestern part of
New Guinea, where relatively active convection ispresent, extending from the western part of the Maritime Continent. The atmosphere is unstable over theisland in the easterly regime. Thermodynamic conditions in our composite would be enhanced by the results of McBride and Frank (1999), who analyzed Aus-

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FIG. 5. Wind field at 700 hPa (vector) and OLR (shaded) for the (a) easterly and (b)westerly wind regimes.

tralian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) data. In theirstudy, the variations in convective activity in the Australian monsoon trough were clearly related to variations in lower and midlevel troposphere moisture. In
addition, the atmospheric stratification of density andmoisture through dynamical processes occurred in association with the large-scale flow rather than with thein situ response to local convection. McBride and Frankfurther demonstrated that the static stability was lessstable during convectively inactive phases than during
active phases (in relation to the large-scale circulation).
This finding is consistent with our comparison of theeasterly trade flow and the wetter monsoonal westerly.

b. Variability in diurnal rainfall
Figure 7 shows the composite mean rainfall distribution and 850-hPa wind for each regime over and around
New Guinea, where large differences in the circulation
field appear between the two phases (see Figs. 4 and 5).
The detailed characteristics of the daily rainfall distri-bution change greatly between the two wind regimes.
Rainfall is strongly influenced by the complex terrainon the island as well as by large-scale wind fields. In theeasterly regime, rainfall is concentrated over the southsouthwestern side of the island, where low-level winds
weaken and converge. Rainfall is not observed over thewindward (northeastern) side of the island. Rainfall isalso suppressed over the offshore area west of New
Guinea. Rainfall is localized over land areas in northern Australia. Figure 4a shows that upward motion extends from southern New Guinea to Australia, but rainfall does not occur between the two land areas.
In contrast, during the westerly regime (Fig. 7b),
rainfall associated with large-scale enhanced convection is widespread over the island and offshore. The
distribution of rainfall spreads out, especially over thenortheastern–eastern side of New Guinea and extending eastward to the equatorial southern Pacific toward
the SPCZ under the low-level westerlies. Enhanced offshore rainfall off the northeast coast near New Britain

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FIG. 6. Relative humidity at 700–400 hPa (shaded) and thermodynamic instability in theatmosphere defined as the difference in the equivalent potential temperature (␪e) between 850
and 500 hPa [contour; ␪e(850 hPa) ⫺ ␪e(500 hPa)] for the (a) easterly and (b) westerly windregimes. The contour interval of the atmospheric stability is 1 ⫻ 250⫺1 K hPa⫺1 from 6.5 to
9.5 ⫻ 250⫺1 K hPa⫺1.

Island (east of New Guinea) is prominent. In contrast,
rainfall is suppressed locally on the leeward side (south)of New Britain Island. Significant rainfall can also beseen over the offshore area to the south of New Guinea,
spreading from northern Australia in association with acyclonic circulation, where Fig. 4b suggests strong upward motion. However, rainfall in this region is separate from the widespread rainfall area over the SPCZ.
Diurnal rainfall activity also has different patterns

under the two wind regimes. Figures 8 and 9 show diurnal variations in rainfall during easterly and westerly
periods, respectively. In easterly regimes, the prominent diurnal cycle is over New Guinea and northern
Australia. Comparison of the diurnal variation between
the two land areas reveals the unique characteristic ofthe diurnal cycle over New Guinea. Rainfall over Australia associated with solar heating starts at 1500 LT,
becomes prominent at 1800 LT, and ceases at 0000 LT.

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FIG. 7. Composite rainfall distribution and wind at 850 hPa for the (a) easterly and (b)westerly wind regimes. The orography is shown by the 1500-m contour.

In contrast, the diurnal rainfall over New Guinea continues until midnight because of the complex local circulations induced by the orography of the island. Rainfall over the island is suppressed between 0900 and 1200
LT, but then gradually develops over the central mountain range and southern coast by 1500 LT. Rainfall is
prominent along the central mountain range at 1800
LT. Rainfall activity is further enhanced at 2100 LT
along the south side of the mountain range. From 0000
to 0300 LT, rainfall spreads to the southwestern side of
the island and subsequently continues until early morning (0600 LT) over the southern plains. After 0600 LT,

significant rainfall gradually propagates off the southwest coast.
During the westerly regime (Fig. 9), diurnal rainfall iswidespread. A distinct contrast in rainfall is observed
between the land and the surrounding ocean, which ismost apparent between the late evening (1800–2100
LT; land) and early morning (0600–0900 LT; ocean).
Rainfall over the open sea surrounding the small islands continues throughout the day with a weaker diurnal variation. As with the easterly regime, diurnal
rainfall over the island has a particular evolution: it
persists until midnight (0300 LT), whereas rainfall re-15 JUNE 2008

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FIG. 8. Time series of rainfall distribution over New Guinea in the easterly regime. Contours of 0.6 and1.0 mm h⫺1. The orography is shown by the 1500-m contour.

lated to the daytime convection over Australia stops at0000 LT. Over New Guinea, rainfall is suppressed between 0600 and 1200 LT and gradually increases by1500 LT. Rainfall occurs over both sides of the moun-tain range on the island at 1800 LT. At 2100 LT, rainfall
along the central mountain range intensifies. From 0000
to 0300 LT, rainfall spreads to both sides of the island,
but the rain is more significant over northern New

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FIG. 9. As in Fig. 8, but for the westerly regime.

Guinea. At 0300 LT, rainfall increases over the basin in
northern New Guinea (see topographic detail in Fig. 1).
After 0300 LT, offshore activity is enhanced around
New Guinea in the westerly regime (Fig. 9). Pro-

nounced rainfall systems are prominent along thenorth-northeastern coast and the southeastern tip of
New Guinea. Rainfall in those two regions gradually
propagates away from the island, and spreads out east-15 JUNE 2008

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FIG. 10. Time–distance cross sections of the (a) easterly and (b) westerly regime rainfall along the cross-island
rectangle in Fig. 1 averaged in the domain perpendicular to the central mountain range. Land terrain (solid line)
and daily accumulated rainfall (circled line) are described at the bottom of each diagram.

ward and offshore during morning to daytime hours,
propagating toward the area of widespread rain overthe central equatorial Pacific. Along the north coast,
offshore rainfall usually begins by 0000 LT between
New Guinea and New Britain, and slowly intensifies
until 0300 LT. At 0600 LT, an organized rainfall systemdevelops along the northern coast and then propagatesnortheastward between 0900 and 1500 LT. The offshore-propagating rainfall that started at the northerncoast gradually weakens by between 1800 and 2100 LT,
and merges with offshore activity around the small islands (east of 150°E) between 0000 and 0300 LT. The
linear rainfall area over the western Pacific (equator,⬃145°–150°E) tends to linger until 0300 LT the following day. This nocturnal convection may be related to
the northward-propagating mesoscale systems observed by Liberti et al. (2001) during the Tropical
Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE).
The diurnal cycle over the open sea away from theisland is strongly linked to the propagating offshore
rainfall under the westerly regime, as shown in Fig. 9.
Rainfall over the Pacific is most pronounced from 0000
to 0300 LT, when offshore rainfall develops along thecoast. It is interesting to note that at 0000 LT within thedomain east of 155°E rainfall is observed only over theocean, and not over the small islands. The rainfall
weakens during the day until evening. West of the small
islands, daytime rainfall weakens as the rain systems
that propagated from the southeastern tip of the island(from 1800 to 2100 LT) diminish. In contrast, east of thesmall islands, relatively weak rainfall at 1500 LT becomes gradually stronger after 1800 LT. Subsequently,
rainfall increases again sometime between 0000 and
0300 LT. The rainfall north-northeast of New Guinea islinked to the SPCZ, whereas the rainfall over southwestern New Guinea is related to activity north of Australia. Activity off the Australian coast spreads to thesouth of New Guinea by 0300–0900 LT, and graduallydissipates in the early afternoon.
Figure 10 shows a time–distance cross section for adomain perpendicular to the central mountain range of
New Guinea (as shown in Fig. 1) to highlight differences in rainfall propagation under the different windregimes. The direction of rainfall propagation changes
systematically, from the southwest during the easterly
regime to the northeast during the westerly regime. Under both regimes, rainfall develops in the afternoon
over the central mountain range and subsequently
propagates to northeast/southwest lowland areas with aphase speed of 2–3 m s⫺1. In the easterly regime, therainfall spreads offshore during the morning but is lo-

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FIG. 11. Vertical profile of wind velocities (open circle ⫽ zonal wind; closed circle ⫽meridional wind) along the cross-island rectangular section in Fig. 1 under the (a) easterly and(b) westerly regimes.

calized near the coast and gradually dissipates. In thewesterly regime, significant rainfall propagates in theoffshore area northeast of the island. The rainfall
propagates faster over water than over land, with aninferred phase speed of about 7–8 m s⫺1. Offshore
propagation continues until the following day and islinked to the afternoon peak in rainfall over the open
Pacific. Moderate rainfall also occurs over the southwestern part of New Guinea during the westerly regime. Over southwestern New Guinea, rainfall propagation from the central mountain range weakens atnight, but then offshore rainfall spreads from north ofAustralia to New Guinea. Rainfall that is propagatedsouthwestward (northeastward) in the easterly (westerly) regime causes an increase in daily rainfall overthat side of the island. In particular, in the easterly
regime, rainfall over the southern plain increases dramatically.
Figure 11 shows the vertical profiles of zonal andmeridional wind velocities along the cross-island rectangle in Fig. 1. Wind direction and velocity are both
important factors in rainfall propagation. These profiles
can thus be used to discern the relationship between
phase speeds and surrounding atmospheric winds. In
both regimes, zonal wind profiles show greater variability than meridional wind profiles. In the easterly regime, the wind direction varies significantly below 850
hPa from the northeast to southwest across the island(see Figs. 4a and 7a). Over the island (at 142.5°E), themoderate northeasterly winds occur below 850 hPa.
The wind speed is ⬃2 m s⫺1 at 850 hPa. On the other
hand, the wind south of the island (at 137.5° and 140°E)
is weak northerly at 850 hPa and changes to northwesterly below 925 hPa. Above 700 hPa, the winds at eachregion are easterly and velocity increases to ⬃10 m s⫺1
at 250 hPa, with a weak northerly component. Comparing the rainfall variability with the wind profile, therainfall propagation phase speed from the central
mountain range to the southwestern plain area is about
2–3 m s⫺1, close to the northeasterly wind speed at 850
hPa (at 142.5°E). The southwestward propagation becomes weakened south of the island, where the windfield changes to northwesterly in the lower level.
In contrast, under the westerly regime (Fig. 11b),
northwesterly winds prevail below 850 hPa over andaround the island (see Figs. 4b and 7b). At the northernside of the island (at 142.5° and 145°E), where rainfall
propagates prominently northeastward, winds are westerly at low to midlevels (700–500 hPa) with a maximum(⬃8 m s⫺1) at 700 hPa. The westerly wind speed weakens away from the island (147.5°E). Wind direction becomes easterly in the upper troposphere over New
Guinea. The direction of the downslope rainfall propagation over the island is inconsistent with the largescale wind field at all heights in the troposphere, andthus is not a result of advection by the prevailing back-15 JUNE 2008

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ground wind. Offshore propagation is also prominent
over the northern coast in the westerly regime. The
rainfall propagates east-northeastward, as shown in Fig.
9. The inferred propagation phase speed is rather close
to the westerly wind speed at 700 hPa (145°E). Thus,
advection may partly cause the eastward propagation of
offshore rainfall that subsequently merges with the
SPCZ.

4. Summary and discussion
High-resolution TRMM rainfall data were used toinvestigate intraseasonal variations in diurnal rainfall
over New Guinea and adjacent oceans during the austral summer season (December–March). Systematic intraseasonal variability, associated with the easterly andwesterly phases in low-level flow, determines the spatial and temporal characteristics of the diurnal rainfall.
The easterly (westerly) regime is accompanied by suppressed (enhanced) large-scale convection and dry (humid) conditions around New Guinea during the passage
of intraseasonal disturbances such as the MJO. Thisvariability appears most prominently in the large-scalefeatures of the atmosphere as it changes to an active
SPCZ from easterly phase to westerly phase. Also, thestrong cyclonic circulation associated with the Australian monsoon trough is enhanced at the south of theisland and is related to the strong monsoonal westerly
in the westerly regime.
Diurnal rainfall characteristics vary between the easterly and westerly phases of the low-level flow associated with the large-scale circulation field changes. Figure 12 presents schematics of the diurnal cycle of convection/rainfall activity over New Guinea, based on ourstudy results. In addition, the hypothesized diurnal
cycle of winds over the island—extrapolated from thestudy by Zhou and Wang (2006), who consider the effect of land–sea breezes and orographic forcing on thediurnal evolution of precipitation by the regional model
simulations—is also described in Fig. 12. The dynamic
evolution of the diurnal rainfall differs between theeasterly and westerly regimes. A striking feature of thediurnal variability in the regimes is that rainfall activity
is propagated southwest (northeast) in the easterly(westerly) regime, and is mainly concentrated over thesouthwestern part of the island (widespread from theisland to offshore over the Pacific). Under both regimes, rainfall over the island is strongly suppressedfrom the morning to early afternoon (0900–1200 LT). It
develops over, and spreads from, the central mountain
range in the evening.
A local circulation forced by high orography is important for convective development and propagation(as demonstrated by Zhou and Wang 2006). In their2865

simulation, convection occurred over a mountaintop in
response to a forced ascent resulting from upslope
winds. Near inland coastal regions, the ascent was also
associated with the afternoon sea-breeze front. Data
from numerical simulations have further revealed thatascent and convection are enhanced over the mountains because the sea breeze penetrates inland by lateafternoon and early evening (1800–2000 LT). Subsequently, rainfall propagates toward the lowlands as
downslope winds develop. Similar mechanisms are responsible for diurnal rainfall variations over the island
under the two regimes, and intraseasonal changes in thelarge-scale circulation field may partly modulate thelocal circulation. In addition, the downslope propagation could be attributable to a converging sea breeze
that penetrates into and remains over New Guinea inlate evening (2100 LT). Once the convection develops,
cold downdrafts from the cloud system itself may force
convergence ahead of the previous convective system,
causing a self-sustaining process that maintains convection, as noted by previous authors (Tucker and Crook
1999; Satomura 2000).
Rainfall propagation in the easterly regime occurs
only west of New Guinea. At the bottom of the mountain slope during the night, 850-hPa northeasterlies further enhance the southwestward propagation of rainfall
onto the southwestern plain. The inferred phase speed
is about 2–3 m s⫺1, close to the wind speeds at 850 hPa(⬃2 m s⫺1). Under the easterly regime, thermodynamic
conditions may favor the development of deeper storms
because of greater atmospheric instability. Thus,
deeper storms occur over southwestern New Guinea as
the rainfall propagates to the southwestward. When
convection is propagated to the southern plain (0000–
0300 LT), significant rainfall can be sustained by theconvergence of downslope winds and the low-level
large-scale circulation. Because of the prevailing westerly component offshore of southwestern New Guinea,
the rainfall area does not propagate directly to thesouthern coast but instead tends to propagate westward
toward the southwest coast. The interaction between
the orographical wind and the prevailing wind would
also contribute to inducing deep convection over southwestern New Guinea. Rainfall gradually moves offshore between midnight and early morning (0600 LT),and persists until late morning (0900–1200 LT). Again,
large-scale prevailing winds toward the island could
force convective development by forcing convergence
between the prevailing low-level winds and land
breezes from New Guinea. However, rainfall offshore
is localized to near the coast.
It is interesting to note that, in the easterly regime,
the diurnal rainfall is concentrated over the islands,

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FIG. 12. Schematics of diurnal rainfall/convective activity over New Guinea along the cross-island
rectangle in Fig. 1 for the (left) easterly and (right) westerly regimes. The hypothesized local circulation,
extrapolated from Zhou and Wang (2006), is superposed as is denoted by the thin arrow (D: downslope
wind; U: upslope wind; L: land breeze; LNB: land-breeze flow from New Britain; S: sea breeze). The
circumscribed cross (dot) denotes the large-scale easterly (northwesterly) flow component described aseast (northwest) into (out of) the section. The thick arrow in the easterly regime indicates the large-scale
suppressed upward motion (SUM) and westerly wind component (W).

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ICHIKAWA AND YASUNARI

particularly on the southwestern side. During the easterly regime, relatively moistened air spreads over thesouthwestern part of the island extending from thewestern part of the Maritime Continent. In addition,
the large-scale low-level convergence and related upward motion occur over the southern part of the islandand north of Australia but are suppressed over thenorth of the island. The convection and rainfall are thus
favored over the southwestern part of the island. On
the other hand, during the easterly regime, the atmospheric environment is basically drier because the center of the large-scale MJO system is located over thewestern part of the Maritime Continent and the wettermonsoonal westerly weakens. In that situation, rainfall
activity occurs only over the island because of thestrong diurnal cycle activating the strong convection.
However, rainfall tends to be suppressed over the surrounding oceans during the convectively inactive phasein the MJO (as noted in Chen and Takahashi 1995).
Thus, enhanced rainfall is concentrated over the southwestern part of the island. The strong inhibition in diurnal rainfall over the windward side (northern side) of
the island might be partly related to the dynamical
blocking of easterly flow from the Pacific by the higher
land terrain, which leads to low-level divergence andsuppressed upward motion. However, details of suchmodification by the orography for wind patterns arebeyond the scope of this study. Future studies could
include numerical modeling to clarify the large-scale
impact of the peculiar orography of New Guinea on
circulation fields.
Under the westerly regime, rainfall propagates onboth the eastern and western slopes of the central
mountain range through coupling of the large-scale circulation and widespread upward motion. Nevertheless,northeastward propagation of rainfall is prominent
over the island, and the rainfall continues until 0300 LT.
Offshore rainfall occurs on both sides of the island fromnighttime to noon, but the development processes inthe two areas differ dramatically. Significant rainfall
propagation extending from the island appears offshore
northeast of New Guinea in a region of large-scale enhanced upward motion in association with the low-level
westerlies. On the other hand, nocturnal rainfall offshore the southwest of New Guinea spreads north from
northern Australia in association with a low-level cyclonic circulation and localized updraft there. This rainfall over the southwestern offshore area is further favored by a convergent land breeze from New Guinea.
On the other hand, the pronounced offshore propagation off the northeast coast of New Guinea starts overthe sea between New Guinea and New Britain at night,
presumably due to the convergence of low-level north-2867

westerlies and the land breeze from the two islands
sometime between 0000 and 0300 LT. The rain system
extends northwestward along the coast because of penetration of the moist air by the prevailing northwesterlies and because of land breeze convergence between
midnight and morning (0300–0600 LT). Then, organized convection develops along the northern coast andpropagates east-northeastward at about 7–8 m s⫺1. The
phase speed is close to the 700-hPa westerly wind speed(⬃8 m s⫺1), which suggests that advection by low-levelwinds is partly responsible for the propagation of therainfall system. However, propagation is northeastward
as well as eastward. A land breeze that blows northeastward perpendicular to the north coast continues inthe early morning and promotes the offshore propagation. In addition, the occurrence of a gravity wave resulting from the strong diurnal signal over land might
be a key factor in offshore propagation as was suggested by previous studies (Yang and Slingo 2001;
Mapes et al. 2003). Zhou and Wang (2006) actually
showed that offshore propagation of rain is triggered by
the combined effect of a land breeze and the gravity
waves forced previously by deep convection over themountain ridges of New Guinea, and they demonstrated that this mechanism also strongly influences offshore propagation. Furthermore, the low-level northerly component around the equator over the Pacificfacilitates the development of longer-lived convection
over northern New Guinea as the north wind converges
with the land breeze (Liberti et al. 2001). These mechanisms support ongoing rainfall until the following day(1200–1500 LT), and the rain can spread far into the
Pacific under the strong low-level westerlies and largescale upward motion that are induced by enhanced convergence related to the SPCZ.
As discussed above, the development and propagation of diurnal rainfall occurs as large-scale circulations
interact with local circulations induced by orography.
Several mechanisms may control the behavior of thediurnal cycle. Further detailed investigation is warranted to reveal the processes that organize convection.
Such studies should include an analysis of results fromnumerical simulations, perhaps using high-resolution
cloud-resolving models.
Acknowledgments. The authors thank Prof. K. Nakamura, Prof. H. Masunaga, and Dr. H. Fujinami for theirvaluable comments and suggestions. Thanks are also
due to Dr. Munehisa K. Yamamoto for archiving the
3B42 data. This study was partly supported by the 21stCentury COE Program “Dynamics of the Sun–Earth–Life Interactive System (SELIS)” of Nagoya University, Japan.

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