TWENTY GOOD REASONS
Not to worry about polar bears: an update
Susan J. Crockford

The Global Warming Policy Foundation
GWPF Briefing 28

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TWENTY GOOD REASONS

Not to worry about polar bears: an update
Susan J. Crockford© Copyright 2017 The Global Warming Policy Foundation

Contents
About the authorvii

Executive summaryix

Introduction

1

1

A conservation success story

1

2

Fewer populations in decline

13

Abrupt summer sea ice decline has not affected polar bear numbers
as predicted

4

4

Chukchi Sea population is thriving

55More prey means healthier polar bears

5

6

Polar bears are adaptable

67Southern Beaufort numbers have rebounded

6

8

Barents Sea numbers have increased

6

9

Low sea ice in 2012 had no harmful effect on Southern Beaufort
bear numbers

7

10

Other species impacted by high polar bear numbers

711

Western Hudson Bay population numbers are stable

7

12

Hudson Bay sea ice is not changing much

10

13

Problem bears in Churchill are not lean or starving

10

14

Churchill Manitoba had the most problem bears in 1983 and 2016

10

15

Marginal sea ice declines during the feeding period

1116

No evidence that subsistence hunting is affecting bear populations

12

17

Stressful research methods have been curtailed

12

18

No recent reports of polar bear cannibalism

13

v

19

Polar bears appear unaffected by pollution

14

20

Polar bears have survived past warm periods

14

Conclusion

14

Notes

16

About the author
Dr Susan Crockford is an evolutionary biologist and has been working for 35 years
in archaeozoology, paleozoology and forensic zoology. She is an adjunct professor at
the University of Victoria, British Columbia, but works full time for a private consulting
company she co-owns (Pacific Identifications Inc). She is the author of Rhythms of
Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species, Eaten: A Novel (a polar bear attack
thriller), Polar Bear Facts and Myths (for ages seven and up, also available in French
and German), Polar Bears Have Big Feet (for preschoolers), and the fully referenced
Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change, 1 as well as a scientific paper onpolar bear conservation status.2 She has authored several earlier briefing papers andvideos for GWPF on the subjects of polar bears and walrus. 3,4,5,6,7,8 Susan Crockford
blogs at www.polarbearscience.com.

vii

Executive summary
1. Polar bears are still a conservation success story: there are more polar bears
now than there were 40 years ago.
2. Fewer populations are in decline than in 2010 (only one, officially) and only six
are data deficient (down from nine).
3. Abrupt summer sea ice decline has not affected polar bear numbers as predicted: even though sea ice levels dropped to mid-century levels in 2007, theexpected decimation of polar bears failed to occur.
4. The Chukchi Sea population is thriving, despite a pronounced lengthening of
the ice-free season since 2007.
5. Less sea ice in the summer in the Chukchi Sea has meant a healthy prey basefor polar bears because ringed seals feed primarily in the ice-free season.
6. Polar bears have shown themselves to be adaptable to changing ice conditions
in several regions.
7. Southern Beaufort numbers have rebounded since the last survey count.
8. Barents Sea numbers have probably increased since 2005 and have definitely
not declined, despite much less sea ice cover.
9. There is no evidence that record-low summer sea ice in 2012 had a harmful
effect on Southern Beaufort bear numbers.
10. Other species are being negatively impacted by high polar bear numbers, especially nesting sea birds and ducks.
11. Western Hudson Bay population numbers have been stable since 2004, despitewhat scientists are telling the media.
12. Hudson Bay sea ice has not changed since about 1999: the breakup dates andfreeze-up dates are highly variable but the ice-free period was not any longer
in 2015 than it was in 2004. However, this fall freeze-up is shaping up to be theearliest in decades.
13. Problem bears in Churchill are not lean or starving.
14. Churchill Manitoba had the most problem bears in 1983 and 2016, which werelate freeze-up years, but many of the incidents in 2016 can be attributed to increased vigilance on the part of patrol officers after an attack in 2013.
15. There have been only marginal sea-ice declines during the feeding period in
spring, when polar bears need sea ice the most.
16. The is no evidence that subsistence hunting is affecting bear populations.
17. Stressful research methods have been curtailed in much of Canada.
ix18. There have been no reports of polar bear cannibalism since 2011.
19. Polar bears appear unaffected by pollution: studies suggest only that harm istheoretically possible, not that it has happened.
20. Polar bears have survived past warm periods, which is evidence they have theability to survive future warm periods.

Conclusion• Polar bears are thriving: they are not currently threatened with extinction.
• Tens of thousands of polar bears did not die as a result of more than a decadeof low summer sea ice, as was predicted.
• Polar bears don’t need sea ice in late summer/early fall as long as they are wellfed in the spring.

xIntroduction
Just in time for Polar Bears International’s self-proclaimed 9 fall Polar Bear Week (5–11
November 2017),10 here is a new resource for cooling the polar bear spin. I’ve updated my 2015 summary of reasons not to worry about polar bears, which is now
more than two years old.11 In this new version, you will find links to supporting information, including published papers and fully referenced blog posts of mine thatprovide background, maps and bibliographies, although some of the most importantgraphs and maps have been reproduced here. I hope you find it a useful resource forrefuting the pessimism12,13 and prophecies of catastrophe14 about the future of polar bears. Please feel free to share it. As global leaders meet in Bonn for COP23 (6–17
November 2017),15 it’s time to celebrate the proven resilience of polar bears to theirever-changing Arctic environment.

1 A conservation success story
Polar bears are still a conservation success story. 16 With the estimated global population almost certainly greater than 28,000, 17 we can say for sure that there are morepolar bears now than there were 40 years ago (Figure 1). 18 Sadly, although completinga global survey was one of the primary objectives of the Polar Bear Specialist Group(PBSG) at its inception 49 years ago, it has so far been unable to do so because at least
four subpopulations have never been counted. The PBSG global estimate was listed
in July 2014 as ‘approximately 25,000’ bears. 19 This number has not been revised,20
even though the estimate PBSG members provided the International Union for theConservation of Nature (IUCN) for its 2015 assessment was 22,000–31,000, or about
26,000.21 Surveys completed or published since bring the total higher still. 2
Even with the lack of precision inherent in these estimates, global numbers arestill too high to qualify the polar bear as ‘vulnerable’ to, or ‘threatened’ with, extinction based on current population levels. 22 Polar bears today are also well distributed
throughout their available habitat (winter sea ice), 23 which is a recognized characteristic of a healthy species. All concerns expressed regarding polar bear survival areabout the future.24

2 Fewer populations in decline
A recent status assessment for polar bears, published by Environment Canada in May
2014,26 showed only two subpopulations are ‘likely declining’, down from four listedby the PBSG as declining in 2013 and seven in 2010 (Figure 2). 27 Baffin Bay, whichearned its ‘likely declining’ status due to suspicions of overharvesting (not sea ice decline), was reported in 2017 to be likely stable. 28 Kane Basin, assessed as ‘declining’in 2010 and 2013 (but ‘data deficient’ in 2014), was reported in 2017 to be ‘stable’ or
1

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2000

2010

(a) Official estimate

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

(b) Unofficial estimate

Figure 1: Official estimates of polar bear numbers
Upper graph uses totals reported in PBSG status tables (to 2013), with min/max; lower
graph uses the same figures, but adds back in the so-called ‘inaccurate’ estimates
dropped between 2005 and 2013 (in 2014, the PBSG finally did the same). 25 The 1960
figure is a ballpark estimate. Further detail can be found at my website 18 and Crockford
2017.22‘likely increasing’28 (but see Section 10). This leaves only the Southern Beaufort bear
population as ‘likely declining’ and even this is a highly questionable assessment (seeSection 7). Note also that the number of subpopulation considered ‘data deficient’(Figure 2, areas in brown) has been reduced from nine in 2014 to six in 2017: three
bear populations (Barents Sea, Kara Sea and Kane Basin) have recently been surveyed
and now have population estimates showing probable increases.
For example, a first-ever Kara Sea population estimate, completed in late 2014,
potentially adds another 3200 or so bears to the global total. 29 This estimate (range
2700–3500), derived by Russian biologists, was added to the official global count published in 2015 by the IUCN Red List. 21 A former ball-park estimate was about 2000, 18
suggesting an increase may have taken place.

Figure 2: Global polar bear population status assessment even better than this.
Figures from the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group assessment (2013) and Environment
Canada (May 2014).30 Brown, data deficient; red, declining; yellow, likely decline; light
blue, likely stable; dark blue, stable; light green, likely increase; dark green, increase.
More recent surveys show BB, BS, KB, and KS are stable or likely increasing. 23

3

Abrupt summer sea ice decline has not affected
polar bear numbers as predicted

Arctic sea ice has declined since satellite records began in 1979, but polar bears haveso far adjusted well to this change, especially to the sudden decline to reduced summer sea ice levels that have been the norm since 2007. The degree of abrupt dropin summer sea ice that occurred in 2007 was not predicted by experts to occur until
mid-century. However, the predicted decimation of polar bears worldwide expectedunder mid-century conditions (Figure 3) 31 – which entailed a loss of 2/3 of the global
total (to only about 6660–8325 bears), as well as the total extermination of 10 entire
subpopulations – not only failed to occur, it did not come even close to happening. 32
If the experts had been right back in 2007, there would be no polar bears at all in
the Southern Beaufort or Western Hudson Bay this year. 33 There is also evidence thatless summer ice in the Central Canadian Arctic has already been beneficial for polar
bears,34 an advantage not expected until later this century. This is due in part to thefact that less summer ice is good for ringed seals - on which polar bears prey – which
feed primarily during the ice-free season (see Section 5) and which do best with firstyear ice cover during the spring birthing and mating seasons.

(a)

(b)

Figure 3: Predicted sea ice changes versus outturn.
(a) Predictions, based on 2004 data, for 2020 (light grey), 2050 (mid grey), and 2080
(dark grey). These were used in 2007 to predict a 66% decline in global polar bearnumbers. (b) Situation as at 10 September 2012, an example of the sea ice extent
experienced in since 2007.35 See Crockford 2017 for details.2

4

4 Chukchi Sea population is thriving
The results of a new study published in 2013 were a direct contradiction of the repeated message that recent large sea-ice declines in late summer had put these bears
in peril.36 The paper showed that Chukchi polar bears are doing better than they werein the 1980s,37 and better than any others, except the bears of Foxe Basin (northern
Hudson Bay), who are doing exceptionally well. 38
There is still no official population estimate for the Chukchi Sea: the population is
officially listed as zero, but was previously estimated at about 2000 individuals. However, it appears that record-breaking sea-ice levels in September 2007, the lowest
since 1979, had no discernible effect on Chukchi Sea polar bears, 39 as confirmed byresearch up to 2016.2,40 As a result, the status of this population was upgraded from‘declining’ to ‘data deficient’ by the PBSG in 2013. 41 Despite the gloomy predictions, alonger-than-average ice-free period has actually been good for Chukchi polar bears. 42

5 More prey means healthier polar bears
The reason Chukchi Sea polar bears did so well with an extended open-water season was because ringed seals, their primary prey, do most of their feeding in ice-freesummer waters. More fat seals mean more fat seal pups the following spring for polar bears. A recent study found that in recent years, with extensive September sea-ice
minimums, the summer feeding period for seals was extended and they became extra
fat.43 This meant that some seals provided a more energy-rich food source for polar
bears over the following fall and winter, an immediate benefit to the bears. In addition, well-fed female ringed seals produced fat healthy pups the next spring, whichmeant more food for polar bears when they needed it the most.
Between 2008 and 2011, both ringed seals and polar bears did better than either
had done in the 1980s, when summer sea ice coverage was more extensive. Oddly,
in March 2013, less than six months after ringed seals were placed on the American
list of species ‘threatened’ with extinction, 44 ringed seal biologists were reporting totheir peers that the results of their Chukchi Sea research contradicted their dire predictions.45 Surprisingly to them, less summer sea ice was better for ringed seals, notworse. In July 2014, a judge decreed that the 2012 decision to list bearded seals in
Alaska as ‘threatened’ was deficient and that there were no near-term threats. The
judge called it ‘an abuse of discretion.’ 46
The USA stands out as the only nation that insists that Arctic seals have been (orwill be shortly) harmed by recent declines in summer sea ice, 47 which made it all themore surprising that in September 2017, the US Fish and Wildlife Service announced
it would not pursue a plan to list Pacific walrus as ‘threatened’ with extinction under
the Endangered Species Act.48 Their experts concluded there was no evidence of ongoing harm or an imminent threat to walrus survival.
56

Polar bears are adaptable

Polar bears have been shown to move from areas with unsuitable ice to areas with
better ice conditions, even over the short term. This is strong evidence of their ability
to adapt to changing sea ice. Recently, it was noted that a number of bears from the
Barents Sea, where sea-ice coverage is strongly influenced by variations in the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation,49 moved to the islands of the Franz Josef Land archipelago
in the Kara Sea, where there has been more predictable ice cover. 50 This is just one example of polar bear flexibility. A past example was the movement of Southern Beaufort bears into the Chukchi Sea during the catastrophic 1974–1976 episode of thickspring ice in the Eastern Beaufort. Flexibility in choosing maternity dens (onshore
vs sea ice), as well as variability in feeding areas (nearshore vs offshore), 51 give polar
bears the resilience they need to survive as a species.

7

Southern Beaufort numbers have rebounded

According to a preliminary US Fish & Wildlife Service survey, Southern Beaufort bearnumbers were higher in the fall of 2012 than they had been in the previous ten years, 52
indicating a recovery from the dramatic decline (25–50%) that occurred between
2004 and 2006 because of the effects of thick spring sea ice. 53 For unknown reasons, the newly-developed models used to estimate Southern Beaufort population
size used only data up until 2010, even though mark-recapture data up until 2012were available.54 This is known because the data was used for another study; see
Section 8. The failure of thick spring ice conditions to recur in recent years and theearly formation and expansion of spring polynyas in the eastern Beaufort have likely
been beneficial for polar bears and seals, 55 resulting in the rare sighting of at least one
set of healthy triplet cubs in 2016. 56

8

Barents Sea numbers have increased

The Svalbard portion of the Barents Sea subpopulation was surveyed in 2015 andwas initially reported to have increased by 42% over the count performed in 2004. 57
The just-published paper confirms that a 42% increase in abundance indeed occurred(685 bears in 2004 versus 973 bears in 2015). 58 However, due to the large uncertainty(broad error ranges) in the estimates involved, even a 42% increase was not statistically significant. This point was strongly emphasized by the PBSG 59 in their recent
status update for the Barents Sea:
Because of the overlapping confidence intervals, it cannot be concluded that the
BS subpopulation has grown.60

The authors of the Svalbard survey, however, had this to say:6

There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has
yet led to a reduction in population size. The carrying capacity is likely reduced
significantly, but recovery from earlier depletion up to 1973 may still be ongoing.

9 Low sea ice in 2012 had no harmful effect on
Southern Beaufort bear numbers
The dramatically low September sea ice of 2012 apparently had no effect on Southern
Beaufort Sea polar bear numbers, or at least we have heard nothing to indicate any
adverse effects.61 Even though 2012 had the longest open-water period in the Southern Beaufort since at least 1979 (see Figure 4), researchers doing mark-recapture workin the area did not report large numbers of starving bears during the summer of 2012or in the spring of 2013.62 Instead, an aerial survey conducted in the fall of 2012 reported that numbers were higher than they had been in a decade (see Section 7).
That is because the extent of sea ice in early summer and late fall means little to polar
bears, in part because most bears eat very little then, even if they are on the ice. 63

10 Other species impacted by high polar bearnumbers
There are so many polar bears in the Foxe Basin 64 and the southern Davis Strait65 (Figure 5) that they may be decimating some nesting sea bird colonies. 66 If so then thiswould represent a downside of there being too many bears. And in Western Hudson Bay, polar bears have been reported eating record numbers of caribou and snow
geese because populations of these prey animals are higher than they have been in
decades.67 Such welcome food sources for eastern Canadian bears provide a little relief from their summer fast, as whale carcasses do for western bears 68 (such as thoseat Kaktovik69 in the Beaufort Sea or on Wrangel Island in the Chukchi Sea 70 ). However,
all evidence suggests that such terrestrial foods are not necessary for bears that have
fed well during the previous spring: 71 whether on land or out on the ice, most polar
bears eat very little over the late summer/early fall months. 72

11 Western Hudson Bay population numbers arestableWestern Hudson Bay polar bear numbers have stabilized. 73 Numbers have not continued to decline precipitously as predicted after a modest decline between 1987 and2004.74 Different methods of calculating an estimate, including which portions of theregion were surveyed, have generated numbers that look like a large population de7

Figure 4: Sea ice extent at the 2012 late summer minimum As at 16 September 2012.
Source: NSIDC

cline has taken place when no such change has actually happened. 75,76,77,78 In short,while there may have been a slight decline in numbers since 2004, there has not beena statistically-significant decline 79 and the just-released results of a 2016 survey confirm this conclusion.75 There were 949 bears in 2011 (range 618–1280) and 842 bears
in 2016 (range 562–1121), a statistically insignificant decline of about 11%. You may
still find people saying that Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers have dropped
from about 1200 (in 1987) to about 800 now (a 33% decline). 80 However, it is notscientifically appropriate to compare these figures because they were based on different types of surveys conducted over different portions of the region. 81 The official
Western Hudson Bay estimate accepted by the PBSG in 2014, and by the IUCN in 2015,is 1030 bears (range 754–1406; about 10% higher than, but not statistically different
8

SB
BB

FB

DS

WH

Figure 5: Some polar bear assessment areas.
SB, Southern Beaufort Sea; BB, Baffin Bay; FB, Foxe Basin; WH, Western Hudson Bay; DS,
Davis Strait.

from, the 935 bears estimated in 2004, because the ranges overlap). 82 Environment
Canada (2014) considered the population ‘likely stable’ (see Section 2), an assessment
upheld by the latest survey.
912

Hudson Bay sea ice is not changing much

For the last three years, break-up dates for Western Hudson Bay have been somewhat
later than the recent average: in 2016 83 and 2017,84 bears came off the ice from midto late-July, while in 2015 some bears did not come ashore until early August. 85 On
the other hand, freeze-up in 201686 – an official El Niño year – was quite late (early
December), as it was during the El Niño year of 1998. However, freeze-up was also
just as late in 1983, 1999, 2003, and 2010. Surprisingly, 2017 looks headed for an
early freeze-up.87 In other words, freeze-up dates are quite variable year to year, andso are breakup dates.88
All of this suggests that in Western Hudson Bay, some years have been good forpolar bears and others have been not so good, but there has not been a relentless,continuing decline in sea-ice breakup dates over the last thirty years that has forced
bears onshore for ever-lengthening periods of time. 89 This has allowed polar bears
to adapt via natural selection.90 A paper published in 2017 showed that, between
2004 and 2015, polar bears spent about three weeks longer on shore than they did in
the 1980s. The step-change in the length of the ice-free period occurred in the late1980s,91 and it appears that polar bears have adapted to it. 92

13

Problem bears in Churchill are not lean or starving

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation recently produced a relatively balanced documentary about some of the controversies involved in polar bear conservation, called
The Politics of Polar Bears.93 It included an interview with the head conservation officer in Churchill, who noted that virtually none of the ‘problem bears’ (see Section 14)
captured over the last five years were starving or lean. Churchill Polar Bear Alert reports for 201694 and 201795 stated that bears coming off the ice at mid-summer werein ‘great shape.’ This suggests that many of the polar bear problems experienced byWestern Hudson Bay communities in recent years are due to higher numbers of bears(or a redistribution of bears, especially of sub-adult males) – as predicted by polar bear
biologist Ian Stirling in the 1970s 96 – combined with other factors (such as increased
numbers of residents and tourists and their associated attractants). Sea-ice changes
are unlikely to be a cause.

14

Churchill Manitoba had the most problem bears
in 1983 and 2016

The first of the two worst years for problem bears in Churchill that could be correlatedwith lack of sea ice happened back in 1983, when the last human fatality from a polar
bear attack occurred. Ironically, 1983 was a year when breakup of sea ice was later
than usual, so the bears had more time on the ice to feed. Unfortunately, freeze-up
10was also much later than usual, leaving many bears in a very lean state and unable
to resume hunting until early December. Similar conditions prevailed for the second
worst year (2016), which also had late breakup and late freeze-up. Hundreds of problem bears had to be dealt with in 2016, although the high number was partly an effect of ice conditions and partly the result of a zero-tolerance policy for bears close totown97 implemented after an attack on a resident in 2013. 98 Breakup and freeze-up
dates for Western Hudson Bay are highly variable (see Section 12) and do not correlate well with high or low Arctic sea-ice levels in September (Figure 6). In some years,
the number of problem bears in Churchill does not correlate well with breakup and/or
freeze-up dates because critical ice and snow conditions during the spring are nevertaken into account.99 As of late October, there have been fewer problem bears in
Churchill in 2017 than in 2016. 100
20
March
September

10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

Figure 6: Arctic sea-ice levels 1978–2014
Source: NOAA’s ‘Arctic Report Card 2014’. Note the lack of error bars indicating theestimated accuracy of each value, which should be present on a scientific graph.

15 Marginal sea ice declines during the feeding
periodAcross the Arctic, there has been only a marginal decline in total sea ice extent (Figure 6) between March and June, the critical spring feeding period when polar bears
require the ice as a hunting platform for gorging on young, fat seals. Polar bears con11

sume two-thirds or more of their yearly food intake during this time: they generally
eat little during the summer,101 whether on land or on the ice. Feeding picks up again
in the fall but declines over the winter, explaining why polar bears everywhere areleanest at the end of winter,102 just before Arctic seals pups are born, and fattest in
early summer.103
In 2017, sea ice levels during the spring were higher than usual in the Labrador Sea(home to Davis Strait polar bears) 104 and, as a consequence, communities in coastal
Labrador and Newfoundland saw record-breaking numbers of bear sightings, 105 including a scary encounter that resulted in a bear being shot. 106

16

No evidence that subsistence hunting is affecting
bear populations

There is no plausible evidence that regulated subsistence hunting is causing polar
bear numbers to decline, despite suspicions harboured by PBSG biologists. The one
region where overhunting was suspected, but not proven, 107 to have caused a difference to population numbers is Baffin Bay. 108 However, results of a recent population
survey refute that assumption: the population did not decline due to overhunting
but instead increased 36% over the previous estimate (see Section 2). 28

17

Stressful research methods have been curtailed

Many polar bear biologists have stopped putting satellite radio collars on polar bears
and have turned to other methods to gather population size data, a step that means
less handling stress for the bears. In some regions, such as the Barents and Chukchi
Seas, large-scale mark–recapture studies would be logistically impractical, althoughsome small projects are conducted in the Barents Sea. 109 In other areas, repeatedcapture, each involving a helicopter chase and use of tranquilizer guns, is seen by
Arctic residents as stressful for the bears, especially females with young cubs. Also,
the drug residues are potentially bad news for aboriginal hunters and their families,
who eat the meat.110 Oddly, polar bear biologists chose to dispel the serious concerns
over invasive research by presenting the outputs of computer models. 111
At the moment, in most regions of Canada with polar bears (Figure 7), including Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Quebec, permits are no longer being approved for mark-recapture work. 112 Invasive research does continue in other areas
within Canada,113 especially Western and Southern Hudson Bay, Labrador and Newfoundland, and beyond, particularly in the Southern Beaufort 114 and East Greenland.115

12Northwest
Territories

Nunavut

Labrador andNewfoundland
Manitoba
QuebecOntario

Figure 7: Polar bear research regimes in Canada
Red: permits no longer issued; green: mark–recapture still permitted.

18 No recent reports of polar bear cannibalism
As of 2017, there have been no further reports of polar bear cannibalism since atleast 2011 and no reports of den collapses due to unusually warm winter or earlyspring temperatures since 1990,116 even though 2012 had the lowest summer ice extent since 1979. Even in regions where bears are reportedly under stress (such as theSouthern Beaufort, Western Hudson Bay, and the Barents Sea), we have not had any
further reports of cannibalism117 or den-collapse deaths, either through the media orin the published literature.
13

19

Polar bears appear unaffected by pollution

So-called ‘toxic’ chemicals cycle from human use into the environment move up thefood chain, especially through animal fat. As top Arctic predators that consume lotsof fat, polar bears have the potential to retain more of these toxins than other animals.
However, most of the papers published so far on this topic fail to demonstrate thatany damage to polar bear health – or even alterations to established biochemistry –have taken place.118 The effects discussed are virtually all theoretical.
East Greenland bears appear to be the most ‘polluted’ of all polar bears tested so
119far, yet they seem to be doing well. Even their penis bones are holding up: 120 reports that polar bear penis bones have been breaking due to weakening bone structure caused by retained toxic environmental chemicals have sensationalized the original report,121 which only said the bones could perhaps break. The same caveats apply
to a just-published paper on toxic chemicals found in Hudson Bay polar bears: 122 although such chemicals could perhaps affect their health, no empirical evidence forany harmful effects has been shown.

20

Polar bears have survived past warm periods

One of the most recent genetic studies published emphasized that polar bears, as a
species, survived more than one previous warm period when there was virtually nosummer sea ice.123 Sea ice has varied both over the short term (i.e. decades-longclimate oscillations) and the long term (glacial-to-interglacial cycles of thousands ofyears). Over the last 100,000 years, for example, there have been periods of muchless ice than today, but also periods with much, much more. 124 Polar bear population numbers probably fluctuated up and down in conjunction with these sea icechanges125 but the polar bear as a species survived, 126 and so did all of the Arctic
seal species they depend on for food, including Pacific walrus (a species limited byfood,127 not sea ice). Their survival indicates that these Arctic species, in an evolutionary sense, are very well-adapted to their highly-variable habitat, 128 despite their low
genetic diversity.129

Conclusion
These are all good reasons to feel good about the current status of the polar bear.
Polar bears are not threatened130 with extinction due to declining sea ice, despite thehue and cry from activist scientists 131 and environmental organizations.132 Indeed,because the polar bear is doing so well, 133 those who would like to see polar bears
listed as ‘vulnerable’ on the IUCN Red List depend entirely upon emotional prophecies of summer sea-ice declines, decades from now, to make their case. 134 They wantpublicity but they certainly don’t want the public to realize how poor were their pre14

vious pessimistic predictions about the response of polar bears to low summer sea
ice;135 or to notice how nearly all polar bear photos published in recent years show
fat healthy animals;136 or to observe that healthy triplet cubs (a rare phenomenon
that supposedly no longer exists in Western Hudson Bay, 137 where they used to becommon138 ) have been photographed in Western Hudson Bay (2017), 139 the Southern Beaufort Sea (2016)140 and the Chukchi Sea.141 Tens of thousands of polar bears
did not die as a result of more than a decade of low summer sea ice, for one simple
reason: polar bears don’t need sea ice in late summer/early fall as long as they are
well-fed in the spring.

15

Notes
1. https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=dp_byline_sr_book_1?ie=UTF8&text=Susan+J+Crockfor
d&search-alias=books&field-author=Susan+J+Crockford&sort=relevancerank and https://susancrockford.com.
2. Crockford, S. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3–5 million km 2
results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ
Preprints 2 March 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3
3. Crockford, S. August 2017. The death of a climate icon http://www.thegwpf.org/gwpftv/?
tubepress_item=XCzwFalI8OQ.
4. Crockford, S. February 2017. Polar bear scare unmasked: the saga of a toppled global
warming icon http://www.thegwpf.org/gwpftv/?tubepress_item=z6bcCTFnGZ0.
5. Crockford, S. October 2014.The walrus fuss: walrus haulouts are nothing new http://www.
thegwpf.org/gwpftv/?tubepress_item=cwaAwsS2OOY&tubepress_page=2.
6. Crockford, S. October 2014. On the beach: walrus haulouts are nothing new http://www.
thegwpf.org/susan-crockford-on-the-beach-2/.
7. Crockford, S. July 2015. The Arctic fallacy: sea ice stability and the polar bear http://www.
thegwpf.org/susan-crockford-the-arctic-fallacy-2/.
8. Crockford, S. April 2015. Twenty reasons not to worry about polar bears (2015) http://www.thegwpf.org/20-reasons-to-be-cheerful-on-international-polar-bear-day-2015-2/.
9. Polar Bear Week (Amstrup, S.):...an event created by my colleagues at Polar Bears International to draw attention to sea ice loss in the Arctic and the urgent need to halt the global rise intemperatures causing the ice to melt. This year, Polar Bear Week coincides with
the COP23 climate change conference in Bonn, Germany. The overlap is fitting.
Polar bears are the premier symbol of global warming, with their very survival
threatened by melting habitat.
See https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/and-now-germany-must-lead_us_59f740dfe4b
06ae9067aba61.
10. Polar Bear Week 2017: https://polarbearsinternational.org/get-involved/polar-bear-week/.
11. https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/06/20reasons.pdf.
12. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/18/science/polar-bears-global-warming.html.
13. http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/polar-bears-in-churchill-face-bleak-future-resear
chers-warn-1.4380568.
14. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/09/withou
t-action-on-climate-change-say-goodbye-to-polar-bears/?utm_term=.7bbf4040d6f9.
15. http://newsroom.unfccc.int/cop-23-bonn/.
16. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/01/01/iucn-polar-bear-specialist-groupout-lived-itsusefulness-20-years-ago/.
17. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/12/global-polar-bear-population-size-is-about28500-when-updates-are-included/.

16

18. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/18/graphing-polar-bear-population-estimatesover-time/.
19. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/pb-global-estimate.html.
20. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/05/01/iucn-specialist-group-now-rejects-polar-be
ar-numbers-it-used-for-2015-iucn-red-list-review/.
21. Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, K., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. 2015. Ursus
maritimus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. http://www.
iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0.
22. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/07/05/are-polar-bears-really-endangered/.
23. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/01/28/claim-of-range-contraction-of-polar-bears-du
e-to-declines-in-summer-sea-ice-doesnt-hold-up/.
24. http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20141107-will-polar-bears-become-extinct.
25. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/19/challenging-noaas-arctic-report-card-2014on-polar-bears/ http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/pb-global-estimate.html.
26. https://www.ec.gc.ca/nature/default.asp?lang=En&n=F77294A3-1#_fig04.
27. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/28/status-of-canadian-polar-bear-populationshas-been-changed-more-good-news/.
28. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/02/15/baffin-bay-and-kane-basin-polar-bears-notdeclining-concludes-new-report/.
29. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/30/kara-sea-first-ever-polar-bear-count-sugges
ts-about-3200-bears-live-there/.
30. https://www.ec.gc.ca/nature/default.asp?lang=En&n=F77294A3-1#_fig04.
31. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/01/19/new-paper-asks-has-recent-sea-ice-loss-ca
used-polar-bear-populations-to-crash/.
32. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/07/14/abrupt-summer-sea-ice-decline-has-not-af
fected-polar-bear-numbers-as-predicted/.
33. http://polarbearscience.com/2016/12/21/as-polar-bear-populations-fail-to-decline-wi
th-sea-ice-message-of-doom-intensifies/.
34. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/26/experts-vision-of-an-ice-free-summer-is-alre
ady-wrong-benefitting-polar-bears/.
35. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/01/19/new-paper-asks-has-recent-sea-ice-loss-ca
used-polar-bear-populations-to-crash/.
36.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/07/chukchi-polar-bear-status-contradicts-themessage-new-details/.
37. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/09/08/how-and-why-great-news-about-chukchi-po
lar-bears-has-been-suppressed/.
38. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/12/foxe-basin-polar-bear-status-another-stablepopulation/.
39.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/09/15/record-sea-ice-loss-in-2007-had-no-effecton-polar-bears-chukchi-study-confirms/.
40. Rode et al. 2017. Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index ofecosystem productivity. Global Change Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/
gcb.13933/full.

17

41. https://polarbearscience.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/summary-of-polar-bear-populati
on-status-per-2013-pbsg_npolar_no_en_status_status-table_htm_feb-14-2014.pdf.
42. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/01/12/if-summer-ice-was-critical-for-s-beaufort-po
lar-bears-2012-would-have-decimated-them/.
43.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/11/chukchibering-sea-ringed-seals-doing-better-despite-declines-in-ice-and-snow-new-study/.
44. http://polarbearscience.com/2012/12/30/bearded-and-ringed-seals-join-the-polar-be
ar-as-threatened-by-a-computer-modeled-future/.
45.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/11/chukchibering-sea-ringed-seals-doing-better-despite-declines-in-ice-and-snow-new-study/.
46. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/07/27/bearded-seals-in-alaska-face-no-serious-thre
at-of-reduction-let-alone-extinction-judge-rules/.
47. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/31/threatened-arctic-species-comparison-shows-usa-most-assertive-about-global-warming/.
48. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/10/04/breaking-pacific-walrus-is-not-threatenedwith-extinction-says-us-fish-wildlife/.
49.
http://polarbearscience.com/2014/03/10/barents-sea-polar-bear-condition-varies-wi
th-amo-and-spring-sea-ice-conditions/.
50. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/04/14/polar-bears-move-around-as-sea-ice-habitatchanges-this-is-what-resilience-looks-like/.
51. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/08/20/summer-sea-ice-melt-and-polar-bear-matern
ity-dens/.
52. https://polarbearscience.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/usfws-2013-2014-polar-bear-ne
wsletter_sm.pdf; see p. 17 lower right. See also http://polarbearscience.com/2014/11/19/po
lar-bear-researchers-knew-s-beaufort-population-continued-to-increase-up-to-2012/.
53. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/06/11/usgs-treadmill-paper-repeats-bogus-claimthat-ice-loss-harmed-polar-bears/.
54. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/17/recent-s-beaufort-polar-bear-count-was-a-cherry-picked-result-new-evidence/.
55. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/05/22/southern-beaufort-sea-ice-melt-in-may-go
od-news-for-polar-bears-or-catastrophe/.
56. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/18/science/polar-bears-global-warming.html.
57. https://polarbearscience.com/2015/12/23/survey-results-svalbard-polar-bear-numbers-increased-42-over-last-11-years/.
58. Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, K. et al. 2017. The number and distribution of polar bears in
the western Barents Sea, Polar Research, 36:1, 1374125. See Table 3
59. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/05/01/iucn-pbsg-insists-the-2015-barents-sea-pola
r-bear-count-was-not-an-increase.
60. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/barents-sea.html.
61. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/01/12/if-summer-ice-was-critical-for-s-beaufort-po
lar-bears-2012-would-have-decimated-them/.
62. http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4075#.VJCA2Xt5Yvy.

18

63. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/02/09/polar-bears-out-on-the-sea-ice-eat-few-seals-in-summer-and-early-fall/.
64. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/12/foxe-basin-polar-bear-status-another-stablepopulation/.
65. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/06/10/signs-that-davis-strait-polar-bears-are-at-carrying-capacity/.
66. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/09/thriving-foxe-basin-and-davis-strait-polar-be
ars-threaten-nesting-sea-birds/.
67.
http://polarbearscience.com/2014/01/26/churchill-polar-bears-eat-more-caribouand-geese-now-than-in-1968-because-there-are-more-caribou-and-geese-new-researchreveals/.
68. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/12/13/kaktovik-polar-bear-photos-again-no-starvi
ng-bears/.
69. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/09/30/polar-bears-at-kaktovik-alaska-not-strandeddue-to-retreating-ice/.
70. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4577222/incredible-moment-more-than-230-polar-be
ars-descend-on-a-russian-beach-to-feast-on-a-giant-whale-carcass/.
71. https://polarbearscience.com/2016/06/19/terrestrial-food-fight-amongst-polar-bear-researchers-reflects-political-differences/.
72. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/02/09/polar-bears-out-on-the-sea-ice-eat-few-seals-in-summer-and-early-fall/.
73. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/05/western-hudson-bay-polar-bear-populationis-stable-press-release/.
74. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/09/19/breaking-2016-w-hudson-bay-polar-bear-su
rvey-shows-the-population-is-still-stable/.
75. Dyck, M., Campbell, M., Lee, D., Boulanger, J. and Hedman, D. 2017. 2016 Aerial surveyof the Western Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation. Final report, Nunavut Department ofEnvironment, Wildlife Research Section, Iglolik, NU. http://www.gov.nu.ca/environnement/in
formation/wildlife-research-reports#polarbear.
76. Lunn, N.J., Servanty, S., Regehr, E.V., et al. 2016. Demography of an apex predator at
the edge of its range – impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay. EcologicalApplications, in press. DOI: 10.1890/15-1256
77. Regehr, E.V., Lunn, N.J., Amstrup, S.C. and Stirling, I. 2007. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup
on survival and population size of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay. Journal of Wildlife
Management 71:2673–2683.
78. Stapleton S., Atkinson, S., Hedman, D., and Garshelis, D. 2014. Revisiting Western
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S0006320713004618#.
79. http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/polar-bears-in-churchill-face-bleak-future-resear
chers-warn-1.4380568.
80. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/27/polar-bears-climate-changecanada-hudson-bay. http://www.upworthy.com/a-scientist-who-has-studied-polar-bears-

19for-34-years-is-starting-to-get-really-worried https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/
2016/12/trouble-in-polar-bear-capital/510839/ http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/polarbears-in-steady-decline-in-northern-manitoba-researchers-find-1.4385480.
81. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/05/29/polar-bear-counts-for-w-hudson-bay-corearea-numbers-are-not-comparable/.
82. Because the 2011 and 2016 Western Hudson Bay aerial surveys used somewhat different
methods, the only population size numbers that can be compared are these: 2011 (949, range
618–1280) and 2016 (842, range 562–1121). The slight decline apparent over 5 years (11%)
was not statistically significant (Dyck et al. 2017, pg. 3, 37). When differences in methodology
and assumptions are taken into account, there is no evidence to suggest the estimate for2016 is different from the 2011 estimate of 1030 bears (Stapleton et al. 2014), which is notstatistically different from the estimate of 935 calculated in 2004 (Regehr et al. 2007). See
endnote 75-78 for full citations.
83. https://polarbearscience.com/2016/08/04/polar-bears-off-the-ice-in-w-hudson-bay-ar
e-well-fed-and-in-great-shape-this-year/.
84. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/07/24/churchill-polar-bear-report-17-23-july-20-th
ose-ashore-appear-to-be-in-great-shape/.
85. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/07/29/hudson-bay-davis-strait-and-foxe-basin-seaice-highest-since-1992/.
86. http://polarbearscience.com/2016/12/05/an-el-nino-year-late-start-to-freeze-up-on-hu
dson-bay-bears-gearing-up-to-hunt/.
87. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/02/early-freeze-up-in-progress-on-hudson-baywhat-a-difference-a-year-makes/.
88. https://polarbearscience.com/2016/11/15/no-correlation-between-freeze-up-dates-fo
r-hudson-bay-total-arctic-ice-cover/.
89. https://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/22/hudson-bay-freeze-up-has-not-been-a-daylater-each-year-since-1981/.
90. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/09/30/natural-selection-helps-polar-bears-adapt-tosea-ice-variability-which-means-some-bears-die/.
91. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/02/09/new-paper-updates-lack-of-trend-in-w-huds
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92. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/02/09/new-paper-updates-lack-of-trend-in-w-huds
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93. The long version of the program can be viewed online at http://www.cbc.ca/player/Sh
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2096. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/17/human-polar-bear-conflicts-stirling-1974-vsamstrup-2013/.
97. https://polarbearscience.com/2016/02/29/more-churchill-polar-bear-captures-due-toincreased-vigilance-not-global-warming/.
98.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/04/churchill-polar-bear-attack-shamelessly-us
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99. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/05/14/snow-depth-over-spring-sea-ice-affects-pola
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100. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/02/early-freeze-up-in-progress-on-hudson-ba
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101. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/02/09/polar-bears-out-on-the-sea-ice-eat-few-seals-in-summer-and-early-fall/.
102. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/03/28/recent-incident-in-foxe-basin-shows-thedanger-of-hungry-polar-bears-in-winter/.
103. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/08/23/fat-polar-bears-and-lots-of-them-drive-pu
blic-confidence-in-future-of-the-species/.
104. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/22/sea-ice-off-newfoundland-thickest-ever-yet-another-polar-bear-comes-ashore/.
105. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/03/east-coast-crawling-with-polar-bears-since-early-march-thanks-to-the-pack-ice/.
106. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/10/newfoundland-conservation-officers-rightto-kill-polar-bear-in-hunting-mode/.
107. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/27/foxe-basin-aerial-survey-a-watershedmom
ent-for-polar-bear-research-part-2/.
108. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/11/baffin-bay-polar-bear-population-survey-done-results-due-end-2014/.
109. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/06/02/barents-sea-polar-bear-cubs-new-data-for2014-made-to-sound-ominous/.
110. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/26/tranquilizing-polar-bears-and-meat-taintedwith-drugs/.
111. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/18/polar-bear-biologists-miss-the-mark-in-ne
w-study-on-invasive-mark-recapture-effects/.
112. Discussed at http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/24/foxe-basin-aerial-survey-a-watershed-moment-for-polar-bear-research-part-1/ and http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/
27/foxe-basin-aerial-survey-a-watershed-moment-for-polar-bear-research-part-2/.
113. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/03/02/guest-post-invasive-research-is-alive-andwell-in-canada/.
114. http://polarbearscience.com/2013/08/29/ten-out-of-ten-polar-bears-being-trackedthis-summer-in-the-beaufort-sea-are-on-the-ice/.
115. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/02/04/east-greenland-polar-bears-said-to-be-themost-polluted-but-appears-to-be-doing-just-fine/.
116. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02753.x/abstract.

21

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resentation-of-fact-galore/.
118. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/03/16/no-evidence-of-actual-damage-to-polar-be
ar-brains-from-environmental-contaminants/.
119. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/02/04/east-greenland-polar-bears-said-to-be-themost-polluted-but-appears-to-be-doing-just-fine/.
120. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/01/28/polar-bear-penises-not-breaking-due-to-pc
bs-new-paper-full-of-coulds-and-maybes/.
121. http://grist.org/list/we-are-literally-breaking-polar-bear-penises-now/.
122. http://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/new-chemical-cocktailsfound-in-hudson-bay-polar-bears.
123. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/03/17/new-genetic-study-confirms-polar-bears-su
rvived-several-warm-interglacials/.
124. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/06/08/my-new-arctic-fallacy-paper-sea-ice-stability-and-the-polar-bear/.
125. http://polarbearscience.com/2015/04/21/polar-bears-barely-survived-the-sea-ice-ha
bitat-changes-of-the-last-ice-age-evidence-suggests/.
126. http://polarbearscience.com/2016/01/09/paleoclimate-genetic-study-confirms-arcticspecies-adapted-to-sea-ice-changes/.
127. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/23/walrus-mass-haulout-hype-refuted-the-video/.
128. http://polarbearscience.com/2014/09/30/natural-selection-helps-polar-bears-adaptto-sea-ice-variability-which-means-some-bears-die/.
129. http://polarbearscience.com/2016/01/14/genetic-similarity-of-polar-bears-does-notmake-them-vulnerable-to-global-warming/.
130. http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20141107-will-polar-bears-become-extinct.
131. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/01/09/fake-news-on-polar-bear-survival-predicti
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132.
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133. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/08/31/video-death-of-a-climate-icon-the-polarbears-demise-as-a-useful-poster-child/.
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136. https://polarbearscience.com/2017/08/23/fat-polar-bears-and-lots-of-them-drive-pu
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22139. https://www.churchillwild.com/polar-bear-triplets-highlight-summer-at-seal-river-heritage-lodge/.
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GWPF BRIEFINGS
1Andrew Turnbull
The Really Inconvenient Truth or ‘It Ain’t Necessarily So’
2
Philipp Mueller
The Greening of the Sahel
3
William Happer
The Truth about Greenhouse Gases
4
Gordon Hughes
The Impact of Wind Power on Household Energy Bills
5
Matt Ridley
The Perils of Confirmation Bias
6
Philipp Mueller
The Abundance of Fossil Fuels
7
Indur Goklany
Is Global Warming the Number One Threat to Humanity?
8
Andrew Montford
The Climate Model and the Public Purse
9
Philipp Mueller
UK Energy Security: Myth and Reality
10 Andrew Montford
Precipitation, Deluge and Flood
11 Susan Crockford
On the Beach
12 Madhav Khandekar
Floods and Droughts in the Indian Monsoon
13 Indur Goklany
Unhealthy Exaggeration
14 Susan Crockford
Twenty Reasons not to Worry about Polar Bears
15 Various
The Small Print
16 Susan Crockford
The Arctic Fallacy
17 Indur Goklany
The Many Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
18 Judith Curry
The Climate Debate in the USA
19 Indur Goklany
The Papal Academies’ Broken Moral Compass
20 Donoughue and Forster The Papal Encyclical: a Critical Christian Response
21 Andrew Montford
Parched Earth Policy: Drought, Heatwave and Conflict
22 David Campbell
The Paris Agreement and the Fifth Carbon Budget
23 Various
The Stern Review: Ten Years of Harm
24 Judith Curry
Climate Models for the Layman
25 Fritz Vahrenholt
Germany’s Energiewende : a Disaster in the Making
26 Hughes, Aris, Constable Offshore Wind Strike Prices
27 Michael Miersch
Truly Green?
28 Susan Crockford
20 Good Reasons Not to Worry About Polar Bears

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