⺰  ᢥⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴ട ⮮ ዏ ผ*㧔ฬฎደᄢቇᄢቇ㒮ⅣႺቇ⎇ⓥ⑼ഥᢎ᝼㧕㧝㧚ߪߓ߼ߦ
⸘㊂⚻ᷣࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡផቯ߿੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߣ߈ߦߪ㧘ᠣੂ㗄ߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᵈᗧߔߴ߈ߎߣߪ㧘ᮮᢿ㕙࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ࠆ႐วߢ޽ߞߡ߽㧘ᠣੂ㗄߇㑐ଥߒว߁ߎߣߪ޽ࠅᓧࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽
ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬ⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ߣ๭߫ࠇࠆߘ߁ߒߚ㑐ଥࠍ․ቯߔࠆߎߣߪ㧘ផቯ߿੍᷹ߩ♖ᐲࠍᏀฝߔࠆߎߣߦߥࠆ
ߩߢ㧘ᘕ㊀ߦߥߐࠇߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿‫ޕ‬ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘․ቯᣇᴺߦᔕߓߡ޿ࠈ޿ࠈߥࡕ࠺࡞
߇ឭ᩺ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߌࠇߤ߽㧘ࠕ࡮ࡊ࡝ࠝ࡝ߦࡕ࠺࡞ࠍㆬᛯߔࠆߎߣߪ㔍ߒ޿ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇߡ߈ߚ‫✚ޕ‬૕⊛ߦࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬߩ⦟޿ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⷗ߟߌࠆߎߣߪ㧘㊀ⷐߢ޽ࠆߦ߽߆߆ࠊࠄߕ㧘ᦨㄭߦ⥋ࠆ߹ߢ⹜ߺࠄࠇߡ
޿ߥ߆ߞߚߣ⷗ࠄࠇࠆ 1)‫ޕ‬ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴ߪ㧘ਇേ↥ߩଔᩰ߇․ᕈߦଐሽߔࠆߣ⠨߃ߡ㧘ਇേ↥Ꮢ႐ࠍⷰኤߔࠆߎߣߢ㧘․ᕈߦኻߔࠆੱ‫⹏ߩޘ‬ଔࠍᝒ߃ࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ 2)‫ޕ‬ଔᩰߣ․ᕈߩ㑐ଥߪ㧘ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇ߇ߎߩ㑐ᢙࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣߪᄙ޿‫ߩ߆ߟߊ޿ޕ‬ℂ↱߆ࠄⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐߇໧㗴ߣߥࠅᓧࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᧄ⺰ᢥߩ⋡⊛ߪ㧘ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߦ߅޿ߡ㧘㜞޿♖ᐲࠍ᦭ߔࠆߎߣ߇␜ߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶ߞߡᠣੂ
㗄ߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚ߁߃ߢ㧘ផቯߣ੍᷹ࠍ⹜ߺࠆߎߣߦ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᣢሽߩ⺰ᢥߪ㧘ࠕ࠼࡮ࡎ࠶ࠢߦࡕ࠺࡞
ࠍㆬࠎߢ޿ࠆὐߢ㧘໧㗴ࠍ฽߻ߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ 3)‫✚ޕ‬૕⊛ߦࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬߩ⦟޿ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣߪ᦭↪
ߣߥࠈ߁‫ޕ‬ᰴߩ▵ߢߪ㧘ផቯߣ੍᷹ߩ♖ᐲߦߟ޿ߡᦨㄭߥߐࠇߚℂ⺰ಽᨆࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆ‫ߪࠄࠇߘޕ‬㧘ᐢߊ㑐ᔃ߇ᜬߚࠇࠆ✢ဳߩࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡ৻⥸ൻᦨዊ2ਸ਼ᴺࠍ૶ߞߡផቯߣ੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߣ޿߁ታ㛎߆ࠄߥࠆ‫ޕ‬╙3▵ߢߪ㧘
ℂ⺰ಽᨆߩ⚿ᨐߦၮߠ޿ߡ㧘ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߦ߆߆ࠊࠆᔕ↪ಽᨆࠍ⹜ߺࠆ‫ޕ‬೑↪ߐࠇࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߪ㧘ㆊ෰ߩ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ߇㧘⼾ንߥౝኈࠍ᦭ߒ㧘⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ⠨߃ࠆߦ޽ߚߞߡㇺว߇⦟޿߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ ╙ޕ‬4 ▵ߢߪ㧘੹ᓟߩ⺖㗴ߦ⸒෸ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

㧞㧚ℂ⺰ಽᨆ
✢ဳࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ y

Xb  u ߢ⴫ࠊߔߎߣߦߒࠃ߁‫ޕ‬* 1990 ᐕ৻ᯅᄢቇᄢቇ㒮⚻ᷣቇ⎇ⓥ⑼ඳ჻ᓟᦼ⺖⒟න૏ୃᓧ㧚㊄ᴛᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱഥᢎ᝼㧘ධጊᄢቇ✚ว᡽╷ቇㇱഥᢎ᝼ߥߤࠍ⚻ߡ㧘2002 ᐕࠃࠅ⃻⡯㧚ኾ᡹㧦⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇ㧚ᚲዻቇળ㧦ᔕ↪࿾ၞቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⚻ᷣቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⛔⸘ቇળߥߤ㧚1) Anselin and Bera㧔1998㧕߿ Anselin㧔2001㧕ࠍෳᾖ㧚2) ട⮮㧔1996㧕ࠍෳᾖ㧚3) ࠨ࡯ࡌࠗࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߚ⺰ᢥߩਛߢೋ߼ߡⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ߦ⸒෸ߒߚߩߪ㧘
Pace et al.㧔1998㧕߿ Sheppard㧔1999㧕ߢ޽ࠆߣ⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚Palmquist
㧔1999㧕ߪ㧘⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍขࠅ਄ߍߥ߆ߞߚ߇㧘Palmquist㧔2005㧕ߪߘࠇࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚ㧚ߎࠇࠄߪ㧘ⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐߇ᄙߊߩ⺰ᢥߦ߅޿ߡ⠨ᘦߐࠇࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߡ߈ߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ␜ໂߔࠆ㧚㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

ߢ޽ࠆ‫ > ޕ‬y1 X1 u1 @ ߣ > y 2
ߒ㧘> y 3X3

yª y1 º«y » , X« 2»«¬ y 3 »¼ª X1 º«X » , b« 2»«¬ X 3 »¼ª b0 º«  », u« »«¬bM »¼ª u1 º«u »« 2»«¬u 3 »¼

X2

u 2 @ ߪ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇ㧘ផቯߣ੍᷹ߦ૶ࠊࠇࠆ N1 ⚵ߣ N 2 ⚵ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ␜

u 3 @ ߪߘࠇએᄖߩ N 3 ⚵ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬b ߪ M㧗1 ୘ߩଥᢙࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ࠍ฽ࠎߢ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬u ߪ㧘ᠣੂ㗄ࠍ⴫ࠊߒ㧘ᐔဋ߇ 0 ߢ౒ಽᢔ߇

ª K (D; c)11 K (D; c)12V K (D; c) V ««K (D; c) 21 K (D; c) 22«¬K (D; c) 31 K (D; c) 32
2

2

K (D; c)13 º
K (D; c) 23 »»K (D; c) 33 »¼

ߣߥࠆᱜⷙಽᏓߦᓥ߁ߣ઒ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬V 2 ߪᮡḰ⊛ߥࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߢ޽ࠅ㧘 K ( ; c) ߪหᰴᢙߩⴕ೉ࠍࠗࡦࡊ࠶
࠻ߣࠕ࠙࠻ࡊ࠶࠻ߦߣࠆ㑐ᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬

D

ª D11
«D
« 21
«¬ D31

D12
D 22
D32

D13 º
D 23 »»
D33 »¼ߪ㧘࠺࡯࠲߇ⷰኤߐࠇࠆ࿾ὐߩ㑆ߩ〒㔌ࠍᚑಽߣߔࠆኻ⒓ⴕ೉ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬c ߪⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍⷙቯߔࠆ 2 ୘ߩࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯߆ࠄߥࠆ‫ ࠍࠄࠇߘޕ‬c1 ߣ c2 ߢ⴫ࠊߔߎߣߦߔࠆ‫ޕ‬K (D; c)11 ߿ D11 ߪ N1 u N1 㧘K ( D; c) 22 ߿ D 22
ߪ N 2 u N 2 㧘 K (D; c)33 ߿ D33 ߪ N 3 u N 3 ߩㇱಽⴕ೉ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬K (D; c)I ߦߥࠄߥ޿㒢ࠅ㧘ㅢᏱᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼ផቯ㊂ࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣߪല₸⊛ߢߥߊ㧘৻⥸ൻᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼ផቯ㊂ࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣ߇ᦼᓙߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ኻᢙዕᐲ㑐ᢙࠍ㓸⚂ߒߡ

1

L(c)

ߣߒ㧘ᦨዕផቯ㊂ ~
c



1
N1
N
1
(ln 2 S  ln N1  1)  1 ln(y1c Hc K (D; c)11
H y1 )  ln K (D; c)11222[c~1 c~2 ] c ࠍ᳞߼ߡ㧘 c ߩઍࠊࠅߦ૶߁ߣ㧘( X1c K (D; ~c )111 X1 ) 1 X1c K (D; ~c )111 y1

2(y1  X1bˆ )cK (D; ~c ) (y1  X1bˆ ) /( N1  M  1)

3

bˆ

2
3

Vˆ

2

1
11

ߦࠃߞߡ b ߣV 2 ࠍផቯߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬H

4

1

1
1
X1 ) 1 X1c K (D; c)11
I  X1 ( X1c K (D; c)11
ߢ޽ࠆ㧚b̂ ߩ౒ಽᢔߪ

1X1 ) 1V̂(bˆ ) Vˆ 2 ( X1cK (D; ~c )114ߣߒߡផቯߐࠇࠆ‫⥸৻ޕ‬ൻᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼ផቯ㊂ߣ⚵ߺวࠊߖߡ↪޿ࠆߎߣ߇ᦼᓙߐࠇࠆߩߪ৻⥸ൻᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼੍
᷹㊂ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪࠇߘޕ‬㧘㧙㧙ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴
1
X 2bˆ  K (D; ~c ) 21 K (D; ~c )11(y1  X1bˆ )

yˆ 2

5

5

ߣߥࠅ㧘 X 2b ࠍផቯߔࠆㇱಽߣ u 2 ࠍផቯߔࠆㇱಽߦࠃߞߡ᭴ᚑߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬K (D; c) ࠍ․ቯߔࠆᣇᴺߪ⋥ធ⊛ߥ߽ߩߣ㑆ធ⊛ߥ߽ߩߦಽߌࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬࿾ℂ⛔⸘ቇ⊛ geostatistical ߥᣇᴺߪ㧘೨⠪ߦಽ㘃ߐࠇ㧘 K (D; c) ߩ╙ ij ᚑಽࠍ K ( Dij ; c) ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬K ( ; c) ߪ⋧㑐㑐ᢙ
correlation function ߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ‫ ޕ‬Dij ߪ╙ i ࿾ὐߣ╙ j ࿾ὐߩ㑆ߩ〒㔌ࠍ⴫ࠊߒߡ޿ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ⴕ೉ weight matrix ࠍ↪޿ߚᣇᴺߪ㧘ᓟ⠪ߦಽ㘃ߐࠇ㧘 K (D; c) ࠍ ^(I  c1 W (D; c2 ))c(I  c1 W (D; c2 ))` ߣ
1ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬W (D ; c2 ) ߪ࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ⴕ೉ࠍߘߩⴕ๺ߢၮḰൻߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ⴕ࠻ࠗࠚ࠙ޕ‬೉ߩ╙ ij ᚑಽ
Wij ߪ╙ i ࿾ὐߣ╙ j ࿾ὐߩㄭធᕈࠍ⴫ࠊߔ‫ߡߞ߇ߚߒޕ‬㧘ߘࠇߪᠣੂ㗄߇੕޿ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍട㊀ߒߡᝒ߃ࠃ߁ߣߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬⋧㑐㑐ᢙ߿࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ⴕ೉ߩቯ⟵ࠍᄌ߃ࠇ߫㧘޿ࠈ޿ࠈߥࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬ផቯ߿੍᷹
ߩ⚿ᨐ߇ࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⇣ߥࠆ߆ุ߆ࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆߚ߼ߦ Monte Carlo ታ㛎ࠍⴕ߁ߎߣߪ᦭↪ߣߥࠆ‫ޕ‬࿾ὐࠍቯ߼ߡ㧘V 2 ߣ c ࠍਈ߃ࠆߣ㧘 u ࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆߩߢ㧘 X ߣ b ࠍਈ߃ࠆߣ㧘 y ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㧘ฦࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶ߞߡ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૞ᚑߒߚ߁߃ߢߔߴߡߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶ߞߡផቯ߿੍᷹ࠍⴕ߃
߫㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍᲧセߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߣߥࠆ‫ޕ‬
Dubin 2003 ߪ㧘⋧㑐㑐ᢙߣߒߡK ( Dij ; c)­1®
¯ c1 exp( Dij c2 )if Dij 0
if Dij ! 0

K ( Dij ; c)­ 1®
2
¯ c1 exp(( Dij c2 ) )if Dij 0
if Dij ! 0

K ( Dij ; c)

­ 1
°
3
3
® c1 (1  3Dij 2c2  Dij 2c2 )°0¯

if Dij 0
if 0  Dij  c2if Dij t c2ࠍขࠅ਄ߍߡ޿ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ⴕ೉ߣߒߡ

Wij

­0
°
®1
°0
¯

Wij

­0
®
c
¯ 1 Dij

if Dij 0
if Dij ! 0

Wij

­0
°
®1
°0
¯

if Dij 0
if 0  Dij d c2
if Dij ! c2

Wij

­0
®
¯ exp( Dij c2 )if Dij 0
if Dij ! 0

if Dij 0
if Dij ! 0 and S ( Dij ) d c2
if Dij ! 0 and S ( Dij ) ! c22㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

ߣߔࠆ߽ߩࠍขࠅ਄ߍߡ޿ࠆ‫ ޕ‬S ( Dij ) ߪ╙ i ࿾ὐߣߘߩઁߩ࿾ὐߩ〒㔌ࠍ᣹ࡌࠠߩ㗅ߦ࠰࡯࠻ߒߚߣ߈ߩ
Dij ߩ㗅૏ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬3 ߟߩ⋧㑐㑐ᢙࠍ↪޿ߚࡕ࠺࡞ࠍߘࠇߙࠇ GS1㧘GS2㧘GS3 ߣ๭ࠎߢ GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ✚⒓ߒ㧘4 ߟߩ࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ⴕ೉ࠍ↪޿ߚࡕ࠺࡞ࠍߘࠇߙࠇ WM1㧘WM2㧘WM3㧘WM4 ߣ๭ࠎߢ WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ✚⒓ߔࠆߎߣߦߒࠃ߁‫ޕ‬ផቯߦ޽ߚߞߡߪ㧘 1 ᑼߩ K (D; c)11 ߣ 2 ᑼ߆ࠄ 4 ᑼߩ K (D; ~c )11 ࠍ K (D11 ; c) ߣ K (D11 ; ~c ) ߢ⟎߈឵߃ߚ߽ߩࠍ૶޿ߥ߇ࠄ  ࠣ࡝࠶࠼࡮ࠨ࡯࠴ߦࠃߞߡ 1 ᑼߩᦨᄢൻࠍ⹜ߺߡ޿ࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘੍᷹ߦ޽ߚߞߡߪ㧘GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ 5 ᑼߩ D ࠍ

ª D11
«D
¬ 21


D

D12 º
D 22 »¼

ߢ⟎߈឵߃ߚyˆ 26

 ; ~c ) K (D
 ; ~c ) 1 (y  X bˆ )X 2bˆ  K (D
21
11
1
1

6

ࠍ↪޿ߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ

yˆ 2

7

X 2bˆ  c~1 W (D 21 ; c~2 ) (y1  X1bˆ )7 ; ~c ) ߣ K (D
 ; ~c ) ߪ K (D
 ; ~c ) ࠍ᭴ᚑߔࠆ N u N ߣ N u N ߩㇱಽⴕ೉ߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬7 ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ޿ࠆ‫ ޕ‬K (D
11
21
1
1
2
1

ࠍ૶߁ℂ↱ߣߒߡߪ㧘2 ߟߩ࿾ὐߦ߆߆ࠊࠆᠣੂ㗄ߩ౒ಽᢔ߇ߔߴߡߩ࿾ὐߩ㑆ߩ〒㔌ߦଐሽߒߡ
K ( D; c) 21 ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣߪߢ߈ߥ޿ߚ߼ߦ㧘ߘࠇ߇৻⥸⊛ߦ૶ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍ᜼ߍߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬Monte Carlo ታ㛎ߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘2 ᰴర Euclid ⓨ㑆ߢ㧘 c1 ࠍ 0.6 ߿ 0.8 ߦߒߡ㧘1000 ⚵ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૞ᚑ
ߒ㧘ផቯߣ੍᷹ߩߚ߼ߦ 200 ⚵ߣ 80 ⚵ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ᛽಴ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬c2 ߪ㧘GS1 ߣ GS2㧘GS3 ߢ 20 ߣߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘WM1 ߣ WM2㧘WM3㧘WM4 ߢ 5 ߣ 2.5㧘7㧘2 ߣߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ߩ࠲࡯࠺ޕ‬૞ᚑߣ᛽಴㧘ផቯߣ੍᷹ࠍ 200 ࿁➅ࠅ㄰ߒߡ㧘ࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩផቯ୯߿ߘߩᮡḰ⺋Ꮕ㧘ታ⃻୯ߦኻߔࠆ੍᷹୯ߩᐔဋᐔᣇ⺋Ꮕࠍⷐ⚂ߔࠆߎߣߢࡕ࠺࡞ࠍᲧセߒ㧘ផቯߦ߅޿ߡߪ޿ߕࠇߩࡕ࠺࡞߽⦟޿ࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍ␜ߔߌࠇߤ߽㧘੍᷹ߦ߅޿ߡߪ WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߦᲧߴߡ GS ࡕ࠺࡞߇⦟޿ࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍ␜ߔߣㅀߴߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
Kato (2005)ߪ㧘WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ㧘K ( D; c) 21 ߫߆ࠅߢߥߊ K ( D; c)11 ߽᳞߼ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿ߣߒߚ߁߃
 ; c) ߿ K ( D ; c) ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆߎߣߪน
ߢ㧘ផቯߦ޽ߚߞߡ K ( D11 ; c) ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆ㒢ࠅ㧘੍᷹ߦ޽ߚߞߡ㧘K (Dk⢻ߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃㧘(6)ᑼ߿

8

yˆ 2

 ; ~c ) K (D ; ~c ) 1 ºª K (D
1
21
1
11
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X 2bˆ  «
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 ; ~c ) K (D ; ~c ) 1 »
«K ( D
21
11 ¼
N
N
¬
2

2

ࠍ↪޿ߡ⋧ኻ⊛ߦ♖ᐲ߇㜞޿߶߁ࠍㆬᛯߔࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍឭ᩺ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
4)

3 ᑼߩ N1  M  1 ࠍ N1 ߢ⟎߈឵߃ߡ޿ࠆߣ޿ߞߚὐߦᵈᗧߔࠆᔅⷐߪߥ޿ߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬㧙㧙8 ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴⴫ ੍᷹ߩࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬ
GS ࡕ࠺࡞
࠺࡯࠲૞ᚑࡕ࠺࡞

c1

ᦨ਄૏

ᦨਅ૏

ᦨ਄૏

ᦨਅ૏

GS1
GS2
GS3
GS3
GS3
GS2
GS1

GS2
GS1
GS1
GS1
GS2
GS1
GS2

WM4
WM4
WM4
WM2
WM2
WM4
WM4

WM2
WM2
WM3
WM1
WM1
WM1
WM1

GS1
GS2
GS3
GS1
GS3
GS2
GS1

GS2
GS1
GS1
GS3
GS2
GS3
GS3

WM4
WM4
WM4
WM4
WM2
WM4
WM4

WM3
WM2
WM3
WM1
WM1
WM2
WM3

0.6 ߩ႐ว

GS1
GS2
GS3
WM1
WM2
WM3
WM4

c1

WM ࡕ࠺࡞

0.8 ߩ႐ว

GS1
GS2
GS3
WM1
WM2
WM3
WM4


D
k

ª D11
«D
¬ 21,kD12,k º0 »¼ ; ~c ) ߣ K (D ; ~c ) ߪߘࠇߙࠇ㧘K (D ; ~c )ߢ޽ࠅ㧘D12,k ߣ D 21,k ߪ D12 ߩ╙ k ೉ߣ D 21 ߩ╙ k ⴕߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬K (D
k
11
k
21
k

ࠍ᭴ᚑߔࠆ N1 u N1 ߣ 1 u N1 ߩㇱಽⴕ೉ࠍ⴫ࠊߔ‫ ޕ‬6 ᑼߪ㧘 N1  N 2 ࿾ὐߦ߆߆ࠊࠆᠣੂ㗄ߩ౒ಽᢔࠍ
 ; ~c ) ߦࠃߞߡផቯߒߡ㧘y 2 ߩᚑಽࠍหᤨߦ੍᷹ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘 8 ᑼߪ㧘N1  1
V 2K (D ; ~c ) ߦࠃߞߡផቯߒߡ㧘ߘࠇࠄࠍ୘೎ߦ੍᷹ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ
࿾ὐߦ߆߆ࠊࠆᠣੂ㗄ߩ౒ಽᢔࠍV 2 K (Dk޽ࠆ‫ ߣࠄࠇߎޕ‬7 ᑼߪ u 2 ࠍផቯߔࠆㇱಽߦ߅޿ߡ⇣ߥࠆ‫ޕ‬Dubin 2003 ߣห᭽ߦߒߡታ㛎ࠍⴕ߁ߎߣߢ㧘
WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߦၮߠ޿ߡ࠺࡯࠲߇૞ᚑߐࠇ㧘߆ߟ㧘ߘߩࡕ࠺࡞߇૶ࠊࠇࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘ࠃࠅᄙߊߩ࿾ὐࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚ߶߁߇⦟޿ߩߢ㧘 6 ᑼ߇ 8 ᑼߦఝࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍⵣઃߌߡ޿ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘ߘࠇએᄖߩ႐วߦߪ㧘ߤߜࠄ߇ఝࠆ߆ߪࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ⇣ߥࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍ⺑᣿ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߒߛߚޕ‬㧘⋧ኻ⊛ߥఝ૏ᕈߪ௖߆ߥ߽ߩߦߣ
ߤ߹ࠆߣ߽ㅀߴߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
⴫ 1 ߪ㧘੍᷹ߦ߅ߌࠆࡕ࠺࡞ߩࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬Dubin 2003 ߦၮߠߌ߫㧘WM2ߦࠃߞߡ࠺࡯࠲߇૞ᚑߐࠇࠆ႐วߦߩߺ㧘GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߢᦨਅ૏ߦ࡜ࡦࠢߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ߪ WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߢᦨ਄૏ߦ࡜ࡦࠢߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ߦഠࠆߎߣߣߥࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘Kato 2005 ߦၮߠߌ߫㧘ዋߥߊߣ߽
WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃߞߡ࠺࡯࠲߇૞ᚑߐࠇࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߢᦨ਄૏ߦ࡜ࡦࠢߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞߇㧘GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߢᦨਅ૏ߦ࡜ࡦࠢߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ߦఝࠅ㧘ᦨ਄૏ߦ࡜ࡦࠢߐࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ߦఝࠆߎߣ߽޽ࠅᓧ
ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߦߥࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡߪ 7 ᑼߦᲧߴߡ 6 ᑼ߿ 8 ᑼࠍ↪޿ߚ߶߁߇⦟ߊ㧘੍᷹ߦ߅޿ߡߪWMࡕ࠺࡞ߦᲧߴߡGSࡕ࠺࡞߇⦟޿ࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍ␜ߔߣߪ⸒߃ߥ޿ߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬
Kato 2006 ߪ㧘V 2 ߣ b ࠍᄌ߃ࠆߎߣߢ㧘ㅊട⊛ߥታ㛎ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ߩ࡯࠲ࡔ࡜ࡄޕ‬ᄌᦝߪ㧘․ߦ⸳ቯ
ࠍ৻⥸⊛ߥ߽ߩߣߔࠆߚ߼ߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ߡ㧘 c ߣ b 㧘 V 2 ߩផቯ߿ y 2 ߩ੍᷹ߦߟ޿ߡᣂߚߥ⍮⷗ࠍਈ߃ࠆ

㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

ߎߣߦߪߥࠄߥ޿‫ ޕ‬y[ln z1}ln z N1  N 2  N 3 ] c ߣߒߡ㧘㑐ᔃࠍ z N1  k ߩ੍᷹ߦะߌ㧘9zˆ N1  kexp( yˆ N1  k  12 Vˆ N2 1  k )9exp( yˆ N1 k )10ߣ޿߁੍᷹㊂ࠍឭ᩺ߒߚ߁߃ߢ㧘10zˆ N1 kߣᲧセߒߡ㧘೨⠪߇ᓟ⠪ߦఝࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ ޕ‬yˆ N1  k ߪ y2 ߩ╙ k ᚑಽߩ੍᷹㊂ߢ޽ࠅ㧘 Vˆ N2 k ߪ
1

V K (D; c) ߩ╙ N1  k ኻⷺᚑಽߩផቯ㊂ߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬10 ᑼߪ㧘ᠣੂ㗄ߩᒻ⁁ߦ߆߆ࠊࠅߥߊ㧘ᐢߊ૶ࠊࠇߡ
2޿ࠆ߇㧘ࡃࠗࠕࠬࠍ઻߁‫ ޕ‬9 ᑼߪ㧘 K (D; c) I ߣ⷗ߥߔߣ߈ߦ૶߁ߎߣ߇ᦼᓙߐࠇࠆ

11zˆN1  kexp( yˆ N1  k  12 Vˆ 2 )11 ߦ๭ᔕߒ㧘ࡃࠗࠕࠬࠍ೥ᷫߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘 9 ᑼ߿ 10 ᑼߪ㧘޿ߕࠇ߽㧘
6 ᑼߣ⚵ߺวࠊߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘Dubin 2003 ߩ⷗ᣇߦᓥ߃߫㧘 7 ᑼߣ 10 ᑼࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖߑࠆࠍᓧߥ޿ߩߦኻߒߡ㧘Kato 2005 ߩ⷗ᣇߦᓥ߃߫㧘 6 ᑼ߿ 8 ᑼߣ 9 ᑼࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖࠆߎߣ
߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ߡߞ߇ߚߒޕ‬㧘ታ㛎ߩ⚿ᨐ߇੍ᗐߐࠇߚ߽ߩߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߪℂ⸃ߐࠇࠆߢ޽ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬㧟㧚ᔕ↪ಽᨆ
ฬฎደᏒ✚ോዪડ↹ㇱડ↹⺖࡮Ꮢ᳃ዪ࿾ၞᝄ⥝ㇱ࿾ၞᝄ⥝⺖ߩ‫ޡ‬ቇ඙೎↢ᵴⅣႺ⺞ᩏႎ๔ᦠ‫ޢ‬㧔ᤘ๺ 61
ᐕ 12 ᦬㧕ߪ㧘ዊቇᩞ඙ࠍᏒ᳃ߩᣣᏱ↢ᵴ࿤ߣߒߡᝒ߃ߚ߁߃ߢ㧘࿾࿑߿ᜰᮡࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘ⅣႺߦ߆߆ࠊࠆ
ቇ඙ߏߣߩ․ᕈߣ໧㗴ὐࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒࠃ߁ߣߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ዊቇᩞ඙ߩᢙߪ 250 ߦ෸߱‫⺞ޕ‬ᩏᤨὐߪේ
ೣߣߒߡᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ 4 ᦬ 1 ᣣ⃻࿷ߣߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ฦቇ඙ߩ㨬↢ᵴⅣႺ࿑㨭ߦߪ㧘ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ 1 ᦬ 1 ᣣᤨὐߢ࿖
߇ቯ߼ߚᮡḰ࿾ߣߘߩ౏␜ଔᩰ߇⸥ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬࿖࿯ᐡ࿯࿾㐓ቯᆔຬળߩ‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ౏␜‫ޢ‬㧔ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ㧕ࠍ૶ߞߡᮡḰ࿾ߩଔᩰ߿᭴ㅧ․ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆᖱႎࠍ₪ᓧߒ㧘ⅣႺ․ᕈߦߟ޿ߡߘࠇࠍ฽߻ዊቇᩞ඙ߩᜰᮡࠍ‫ޡ‬ቇ඙೎↢ᵴⅣႺ⺞ᩏႎ๔ᦠ‫ࠄ߆ޢ‬ᜪ߁ߎߣߦߒࠃ߁‫ߒߛߚޕ‬㧘‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ౏␜‫⸥ߦޢ‬タߐࠇߚᮡḰ࿾ߩ߁ߜߩ޿ߕ
ࠇ߇㨬↢ᵴⅣႺ࿑㨭ߦ⸥ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ߆ߪࠊ߆ࠄߥ޿ߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘ฬฎደᏒ⸘↹ዪ࿯࿾ኻ╷⺖ߩ‫ޡ‬ฬฎደᏒ࿾ଔ
౏␜࡮ၮḰ࿾૏⟎࿑‫ޢ‬㧔ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ 10 ᦬㧕ࠍ૶ߞߡࡑ࠶࠴ࡦࠣࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬ฬฎደᏒౝߦߪ✚ߓߡ 368 ߩᮡḰ࿾߇ಽᏓߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘㨬೑↪ߩ⃻ᴫ㨭߇㨬૑ቛ㨭ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߦὶὐ
ࠍ⛉ࠆߎߣߦߒߚ޿‫⹥ޕ‬ᒰߔࠆ߽ߩߪ㧘ਛ඙ࠍ㒰ߊ 15 ߩ඙ߦዻߒ㧘╙ 1 ⒳૑ዬኾ↪࿾ၞ߿╙ 2 ⒳૑ዬኾ↪࿾ၞ㧘૑ዬ࿾ၞߦ૏⟎ߔࠆ229 ߩ૑ቛ࿾ߣḰᎿᬺ࿾ၞߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ5 ߟߩḰᎿᬺ࿾ߦಽߌࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᓟ⠪ߪ㧘໡ᬺ࿾߿Ꮏᬺ࿾ߣห᭽ߦ↥ᬺ↪࿾ߦዻߒߡ೨⠪ߣ⇣ߥࠅ㧘೎ߥᏒ႐ߦ߅޿ߡขᒁߐࠇࠆน⢻ᕈ߇㜞޿ߣᕁࠊࠇࠆߩߢ㧘⋭߈ߚ޿‫ޕ‬ⅣႺᜰᮡߩਛߦߪ㧘⺞ᩏᤨએᓟቇ඙ߦᄌേ߇޽ߞߚߦ߽߆߆ࠊࠄߕ⺞ᩏᒰᤨߩዊቇᩞ඙ߩ୯߇ਈ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩ߿㧘ቇ඙ߦࠃߞߡ୯ߩᓧࠄࠇߥ޿߽ߩ߇⷗ฃߌࠄࠇࠆ‫ࠄࠇߘޕ‬ߩ߁ߜߩ޿ߊߟ߆ߪಽᨆࠍട߃ࠆߦ޽ߚߞߡήⷞߒ㔍޿ᜰᮡߢ޽ࠆ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㧘ᄌേ߇޽ߞߚࠅᰳ᷹୯߇⷗
ࠄࠇߚࠅߔࠆዊቇᩞ඙ߣߘߎߦ૏⟎ߔࠆᮡḰ࿾ߪ⠨ᘦߖߕ㧘141 ߩቇ඙ߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ 214 ߩᮡḰ࿾ࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬㧙㧙ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴

⴫ᄌⵍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙ䈫⺑᣿ᄌᢙ

ᢙ

ⵍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙ
PRICE(౞)⺑᣿ᄌᢙ᭴ㅧ․ᕈ
SIZE 㨙㧞
SHAPES
DIRECTIONSWIDTH 㨙 
PRIVATEGASSEWERAGE
VOLUME 㧑 ⅣႺ․ᕈPLAYGROUNDS 㨙㧞ੱ SCHOOLYARDS 㨙㧞ੱ 
DOCTORS ੱජੱ 
DENTISTS ੱජੱ 
FIRES 㧑 ACCIDENTS ઙJC 
POLLUTION ઙJC 
PARKSETC 㧑 
WOODS 㧑 MEETING ▎ᚲජੱ 
BARSETC ▎ᚲ100JC 
RESIDENTIAL 㧑 INDUSTRIAL 㧑 UNDERUSED 㧑 PAVED 㧑 TIME ಽ STORES ▎ᚲජੱ 
RESTAURANTS ▎ᚲජੱ ౝኈଔᩰߦ࿾Ⓧߣഀᒁ₸ࠍដߌߚ߽ߩ㧚৻ㇱ߇⑳㆏ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ႐วߦߪߘߩㇱಽࠍ฽߼ߚ࿾Ⓧ㧚บᒻ߿ਇᢛᒻߢ޽ࠇ߫ 1 ߣߒ྾ⷺᒻߢ޽ࠇ߫ 0 ߣߔࠆ࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙ㧚೨㕙㆏〝ߩᣇ૏߇ධߢ޽ࠇ߫ 1 ߣߒߘࠇએᄖߪ 0 ߣߔࠆ࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙ㧚೨㕙㆏〝ߩ᏷ຬ㧚೨㕙㆏〝߇⑳㆏ߢ޽ࠇ߫ 1 ߣߒߘࠇએᄖߪ 0 ߣߔࠆ࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙ㧚
ࠟࠬ੐ᬺᴺߦࠃࠆ৻⥸ࠟࠬ੐ᬺ߹ߚߪ◲ᤃࠟࠬ੐ᬺߦࠃࠅࠟࠬ߇ଏ⛎ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ
႐ว㧘߅ࠃ߮㧘ㅢᏱߩᎿ੐⾌⽶ᜂߦࠃߞߡߘࠇࠄ߆ࠄߩࠟࠬଏ⛎߇น⢻ߥ႐วߦߪ 1 ߣߒߘࠇએᄖߢߪ 0 ߣߔࠆ࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙ㧚
ਅ᳓㆏ᴺߩಣℂ඙ၞౝߦ޽ࠆ႐ว㧘߅ࠃ߮㧘౏౒ਅ᳓㆏ߦធ⛯ߒߚࠅ⚳ᧃಣℂ႐
߇޽ߞߚࠅߔࠆ႐วߦߪ 1 ߣߒߘࠇએᄖߢߪ 0 ߣߔࠆ࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙ㧚
ኈⓍ₸㧚ఽ┬౏࿦߿ㄭ㓞࡮࿾඙౏࿦㧘ߤࠎߋࠅᐢ႐㧘ఽ┬ㆆ࿦࿾ߩ㕙Ⓧࠍੱญߢഀߞߚ߽ߩ㧚ఽ┬ 1 ੱᒰߚࠅߩㆇേ႐㕙Ⓧ㧚ජੱᒰߚࠅߩ∛㒮࡮⸻≮ᚲකᏧᢙ㧚ජੱᒰߚࠅߩ∛㒮࡮⸻≮ᚲᱤ⑼කᏧᢙ㧚
ቇ඙㕙Ⓧߦኻߔࠆㆊ෰ 3 ᐕ㑆ߩᑪ‛὾៊㕙Ⓧว⸘ߩഀว㧚
ᤘ๺ 59 ᐕߩ 1JC ᒰߚࠅੱり੐᡿ઙᢙ㧚
ᤘ๺59 ᐕᐲߩ౏ኂᜰዉઙᢙࠍቇ඙㕙Ⓧߢഀߞߚ߽ߩ㧚౏࿦࡮✛࿾ߣቬᢎ࡮ᢥൻ↪࿾ߩഀว㧚
100㨙㧞એ਄ߩ৻࿅ࠍߥߔ᮸ᨋ࿾ߩᤘ๺ 58 ᐕᐲߦ߅ߌࠆഀว㧚ජੱᒰߚࠅߩ㓸ળᣉ⸳ᢙ㧚໡ᬺ⛔⸘⺞ᩏߦࠃࠆ㘶㘩ᐫ2 㘃 ࡃ࡯㧘ࠠࡖࡃ࡟࡯㧘࠽ࠗ࠻ࠢ࡜ࡉ㧘㈬႐㧘ዊᢱℂደ ߦ⹥ᒰߔࠆ㘑ଶ༡ᬺᣉ⸳ߩ 100JC ᒰߚࠅߩᢙ㧚૑ዬ↪࿾ߩഀว㧚Ꮏᬺ↪࿾ߩഀว㧚ᧂ೑↪࿾ ⓨ㑄࿾㧘㚢ゞ႐㧘᧚ᢱ⟎႐㧘ㄘ࿾㧘ጊᨋ╬ ߩഀว㧚㆏〝⥩ⵝ₸㧚ዊቇᩞ߆ࠄㇺᔃߩᩕ߹ߢߩᚲⷐᤨಽ㧚ජੱᒰߚࠅߩ㘶㘩ᐫࠍ㒰ߊዊᄁᬺ໡ᐫߩᢙ㧚ජੱᒰߚࠅߩ㘑ଶ༡ᬺᣉ⸳ࠍ㒰ߊ㘶㘩ᐫߩᢙ㧚ขࠅ਄ߍߚᄌᢙߪ⴫ 2 ߦ␜ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬৻⥸ߦ㧘࿯࿾ߩขᒁߪಽഀน⢻ᕈߦਲߒߊࡠ࠶࠻න૏ߢⴕࠊࠇ㧘ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߪ․ቯߥᦼ㑆ࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡ⚵߹ࠇߚࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߅޿ߡዉ߈಴ߐࠇࠆߚ߼ߦ㧘1m㧞ᒰߚࠅߩ౏␜ଔᩰߦ࿾Ⓧߣഀᒁ₸ࠍដߌࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡⵍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙࠍቯ⟵ߒߚ޿‫ߪߢߎߎޕ‬㧘0.004 ࠍ૶ߞߡ᦬ᒰ
ߚࠅߩ୯ߣߔࠆ  ‫ޕ‬ᑪ‛ߩ᭴ㅧߦ㑐ߔࠆᖱႎࠍᓧࠆߎߣߪน⢻ߢ޽ࠆ߇㧘ᦝ࿾ߣߒߡߩଔᩰ߇౏␜ߐࠇࠆ
ߎߣߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆߩߢ㧘ߘࠇࠄࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߎߣߪᔅⷐߣߐࠇߥ޿‫౏ޕ‬ኂᜰዉઙᢙߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ේ࠺࡯࠲ߩ
ᒻߢ⴫␜ߐࠇߡ޿ߚߌࠇߤ߽㧘․ߦⓨ㑆⊛ߥಽᏓࠍᛒ߁ߚ߼㧘㕙Ⓧߢഀߞߚ߽ߩࠍ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬࠺࡯࠲ߦ⸥タࡒࠬ߇޽ࠆߣ⇼ࠊࠇࠆߣ߈ߦߪ㧘㑐ଥᯏ㑐ߦ໧޿วࠊߖߚ߁߃ߢ㧘ࡒࠬࠍ⸓ᱜߒߚࠅߒߚ‫ޕ‬ߎࠇߪ㧘ᮡḰ࿾߇ㄭ㓞࿾ၞߩਛߢᮡḰ⊛ߥ↹࿾ࠍᜰߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߿ขࠅ਄ߍࠆᮡḰ࿾ࠍ⛉ߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣߣ
วࠊߖߡ㧘ᄖࠇ୯ߦ߆߆ࠊࠆ໧㗴ࠍ↢ߓߐߖߥ޿ℂ↱ߣߥࠆ‫ޕ‬5)ᐕ₸ߦ឵▚ߔࠆߣ㧘⚂ 5㧑ߦߥࠆ. ᫪᧖㧔1991㧕ߦࠃࠇ߫㧘ഀᒁ₸ߦ 4㧑ߥ޿ߒ 6㧑ࠍᒰߡࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿ߣߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘ⵍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙߪ৻⥸ߦኻᢙᄌ឵ߐࠇࠆߩߢ㧘Monte Carlo ታ㛎ߩ⚿ᨐߦ㈩ᘦߒߥ߇ࠄផቯߣ੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ ࠆࠇࠄ޿↪ߊࠃޕ‬log-linear ဳࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣߦߒࠃ߁‫ޕ‬ߚߛߒ㧘⺑᣿ᄌᢙ߇ 0 ࠍ᷹ⷰ୯ߦ᦭ߔࠆ㓙ߦߪ㧘ኻᢙᄌ឵ࠍᣉߔߎߣߪ⸵ߐࠇߕ㧘࿎㔍߇↢ߓࠆ‫ޕ‬ቯᢙࠍ⿷ߒߡᐩ਄ߍߔࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߪ㧘ᕭᗧᕈࠍ઻߁ߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘ㆱߌߚ߶߁߇⦟޿ߣ್ᢿߒߚ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㧘
PLAYGROUNDS 㧘DOCTORS 㧘DENTISTS 㧘FIRES ߿ POLLUTION 㧘MEETING 㧘BARSETC 㧘
INDUSTRIAL ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ㧘࠳ࡒ࡯ᄌᢙߣหߓࠃ߁ߦ㧘ᄌ឵ߒߥ޿߹߹⚵ߺ౉ࠇࠆߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ᮡḰ࿾ߩଔᩰ߇್ቯߐࠇࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘ขᒁ੐଀ߣߩᲧセ߇ⴕࠊࠇࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘ⅣႺࠍ᷹ቯߔࠆ
ߚ߼ߦዊቇᩞ඙ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆߎߣߪ㧘⺋Ꮕࠍ฽߻߆߽ߒࠇߥ޿‫ߪࠄࠇߎޕ‬㧘⠨ᘦߔߴ߈․ᕈ߇⋭߆ࠇߡ޿ߥ
޿ߣ⷗ߥߒߡ߽㧘ⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ᜗ߊน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ᣢሽߩ⺰ᢥߢߪ㧘ਥߦ GS1 ߿ WM1㧘
WM2㧘WM3 ߇↪޿ࠄࠇߡ߈ߚ߇㧘ߎߩ⺰ᢥߢߪ㧘GS3 ߣ WM4 ࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣߦߒߚ޿‫ޕ‬ታ㛎ߦ߅޿ߡߘࠇࠄߪ GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߣ WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߩਛߢ✚૕⊛ߦᦨ߽⦟޿ࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ߚ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᮡḰ࿾㑆ߩ〒㔌ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ㧘‫ޡ‬ฬฎደᏒ࿾ଔ౏␜࡮ၮḰ࿾૏⟎࿑‫ߡߞ૶ࠍޢ‬জන૏ߢ᷹ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍᛒ߁႐ว㧘ᮡḰ⊛ߥ࠰ࡈ࠻࠙ࠚࠕߪ㧘ኾ↪ߩࠦࡑࡦ࠼ࠍ஻߃ߡ޿ߥ޿߽ߩߩ㧘ⴕ೉⸘▚ߣ㕖✢ဳᦨㆡൻࠍน⢻ߦߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘᦭↪ߣߥࠆ‫⺰ߩߎޕ‬ᢥߢߪ㧘TSP㧔Time Series Processor㧕ࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣߦߒࠃ߁ 6)‫ᦨޕ‬ዕផቯࠍⴕ߁ߦ޽ߚߞߡߪ㧘ML ࠦࡑࡦ࠼ࠍ૶߁ߎߣ߇⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬Version
4.4 એ਄ߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘ߎࠇߦวࠊߖߡ 2 ㅢࠅߩᣇᴺ߇ឭଏߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬FRML ߪ㧘ዕᐲ㑐ᢙࠍ㓸⚂ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ㓙ߦߪㆡᒰߢߥ޿‫ޕ‬PROC ߪ㧘ࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩផቯ୯ߩಽᢔࠍᦨ߽ዊߐߊߔࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ Newton ᴺࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿ߣ޿߁ὐߢ೙⚂ࠍ᦭ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬quasi-Newton ᴺߣߒߡߪ㧘BFGS
㧔Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno㧕ᴺ߿ DFP㧔Davidon-Fletcher-Powell㧕ᴺ߇↪ᗧߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬೨⠪ߪ㧘ᓟ⠪ߦఝࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ߇ 7)㧘ᦨㆡൻࠍ଻⸽ߔࠆ߽ߩߢߪߥ޿‫ޕ‬BFGS ᴺߦ㒢ࠄߕᔅⷐߦᔕߓ
ߡ DFP ᴺࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣߦߒࠃ߁‫ߩ࡯࠲ࡔ࡜ࡄޕ‬ೋᦼ୯ࠍ₪ᓧߔࠆߚ߼ߦ㧘ࠣ࡝࠶࠼࡮ࠨ࡯࠴ࠍ⹜ߺ
ࠆ‫ޕ‬Monte Carlo ታ㛎ߪ৻⥸⊛ߥ⸳ቯߩ߽ߣߢⴕࠊࠇࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍ⠨ᘦߒߡ㧘ℂ⺰ಽᨆߦၮߠ߈㧘GS3ߦ߅޿ߡߪ c1  {0.1, 0.2,  , 1.0} 㧘 c2  {10, 15, , 50} ߣ⷗ߥߒ㧘WM4 ߦ߅޿ߡߪ c1  {0.1, 0.2, , 0.9} 㧘
c2  {1.0, 1.5,  , 4.0} ߣ⷗ߥߒߡࠨ࡯࠴ࠍⴕߞߚᓟߦ㧘ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߩ᏷ࠍඨᷫߐߖࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡࠨ࡯࠴ࠍ 3࿁➅ࠅ㄰ߔߎߣߦߔࠆ‫߽ߣߞ߽ޕ‬㧘ዕᐲ߇Ⴧടߔࠆᣇะߦኻ⽎ࠍ᜛ߍߡࡇ࡯ࠢߦ⥋ࠆߎߣࠍ⏕⹺ߒߥߌࠇ
߫ߥࠄߥߊߥࠆ߆߽ߒࠇߥ޿ 8)‫ޕ‬ᵈᗧߔߴ߈ߎߣߪ㧘ℂ⺰ಽᨆߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘 c ߇ᣢ⍮ߢ޽ࠅ㧘㑐ᔃߪ ~c ߦะߌࠄࠇߡ޿ߡ㧘ࠣ࡝࠶࠼࡮ࠨ࡯࠴ߩ⋡⊛߇ࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩᦨ⚳୯ࠍ₪ᓧߔࠆߎߣߦ޽ߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽
ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬ᔕ↪ಽᨆߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘c ߪᧂ⍮ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ߘࠇߦ㑐ߒߡᬌቯࠍട߃ࠆߎߣ߇ᔅⷐߣߐࠇࠆ‫ߪߢߎߎޕ‬㧘ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓࠍ೑↪ߒߡࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩᦨ⚳୯ࠍ₪ᓧߔࠆߣߣ߽ߦ㧘2 ᰴዉ㑐ᢙࠍᢙ୯⸘▚ߒߡ ~c ߩ౒ಽᢔࠍផቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬⴫ 3 ߪ㧘৻⥸ൻᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼ផቯߩ⚿ᨐࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ‫ ࡞࠺ࡕޕ‬1 ߪ K (D; c) I ߣ઒ቯߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ‫࠺ࡕޕ‬࡞ 2 ߣ 3 ߪ GS3 ߣ WM4 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ‫ ߽ߡ޿߅ߦࠇߕ޿ޕ‬c ߪ DFP ᴺߦࠃߞߡផቯߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ߦ⥸৻ޕ‬㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍᲧߴࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘ห৻ߩࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓࠍ↪޿ࠆߎߣ߇᳞߼ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬BFGS ᴺߪᦨㆡൻࠍ㆐ᚑߒߥ
޿ߎߣ߇޽ߞߚ‫ ޕ‬c~ ߩ୯ߪ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ໧ࠊߕ㧘᦭ᗧߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘ᒝ޿ᱜߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐߇޽ࠅ㧘ㄭធߔࠆ1ᮡḰ࿾ߦߟ޿ߡᠣੂ㗄ߩ୯߇หߓࠃ߁ߥᣇะߦಽᏓߔࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߔ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ߘࠇߪ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ 2 ߦ߅޿ߡ㧘
1 ߣ᦭ᗧߦ⇣ߥߞߡ޿ߡ㧘ᮡḰ࿾߇௖߆ߦߢ߽㔌ࠇࠆߣ㧘ᠣੂ㗄ߩ⋧㑐ߪᒙ߹ࠆߣ޿߁࠽ࠥ࠶࠻ലᨐⓨ㑆⊛ߥ⛔⸘⸃ᨆߩߚ߼ߩࡕࠫࡘ࡯࡞ࠍᜬߟ߽ߩߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘Dubin et al.㧔1999㧕ࠍෳᾖ㧚ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓࠍ․ߦᜰቯߒߥ޿႐ว㧘BFGS ᴺ߇ㆬᛯߐࠇࠆߎߣߦߥࠆ㧚8) C ߪ㧘GS ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ 1 એਅߣߥࠅ㧘WM ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ 1 ᧂḩߣߥࠆߎߣ߇᳞߼ࠄࠇࠆ㧚1
6)
7)

㧙㧙ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴

㧔nugget effect㧕߇ሽ࿷ߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬⴫ ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߩផቯ
b㧜
b SIZEb SHAPESb DIRECTIONS
b WIDTHb PRIVATEb GAS
b SEWERAGEb VOLUMEb PLAYGROUNDSb SCHOOLYARDS
b DOCTORSb DENTISTS
b FIRESb ACCIDENTS
b POLLUTION
b PARKSETC
b WOODSb MEETING
b BARSETCb RESIDENTIALb INDUSTRIALb UNDERUSEDb PAVEDb TIMEb STORES
b RESTAURANTS


c1 



c2 



L(c) 

ࡕ࠺࡞ 1
***4.38240.8365
1.0995***
0.0185 0.0272
0.0311 0.0320**
0.0166 0.0727**
0.0347 0.2112***0.0859 
0.2510***0.0578 
0.0823***
0.0226 0.0174
0.0237 0.0085***
0.0034 0.0544***0.0192 0.0040*
0.0026 0.0020
0.0091 0.2387
0.4750 
0.0154
0.0255 0.0101
0.2226 0.0078
0.0126 0.0448***0.0093 0.0660***
0.0257 0.0000
0.0005 0.0678**
0.0304 0.0113***0.0023 0.0843***
0.0215
0.4768***
0.1722 0.2600***
0.0346 0.0287
0.0289 
0.0317
0.0301 2321.4303

ࡕ࠺࡞ 2
***5.56890.7543
1.0604***
0.0130 
0.0078
0.0212 0.0145
0.0118 
0.0660***
0.0250 
0.1418***0.0601 0.1575***0.0492 0.1159***
0.0214 0.0042
0.0179 
0.0078***0.0030 
0.0275**
0.0148 
0.0002
0.0021 0.0031
0.0075 0.1073
0.3837 0.0205
0.0200 
0.1145
0.1705 0.0063
0.0095 0.0062
0.0093 0.0229
0.0232 0.0001
0.0004 0.0250
0.0276 0.0040**
0.0020 
0.0466**
0.0207
0.1238
0.1634 0.1190***0.0395 0.0285
0.0223 0.0116
0.0241 0.9325***
0.0306 
12.4134***
0.5840 
2276.2982

ࡕ࠺࡞ 3
5.3377***0.7463
1.0581***0.0137 0.0160
0.0212 0.0134
0.0118 
0.0642***0.0258 
0.1326**
0.0629 
0.1237***
0.0519 
0.1131***0.0219 
0.0069
0.0178 
0.0082***
0.0033 0.0317**
0.0154 0.0009
0.0022 0.0022
0.0080 
0.0089
0.3796 0.0261
0.0205 0.1008
0.1769 
0.0039
0.0096 0.0069
0.0096 0.0276
0.0229 
0.0001
0.0004 0.0339
0.0276 0.0041**
0.0020 
0.0401**0.0206
0.2098*
0.1619 
0.1475***
0.0386 0.0210
0.0235 
0.00420.0242 0.8868***
0.0392  0.5498***
0.0757 
2283.2320

ᵈ㧕 㧘 㧘 ߪ㧘ẋㄭ⊛ߥ t ᬌቯߦ߅޿ߡ ஥ 1㧘5㧘10㧑ߩ᳓Ḱߢ᦭ᗧߢ޽ࠆߎߣࠍ⴫ࠊߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚㧔 㧕ౝߩᢙ୯ߪᮡḰ⺋Ꮕߢ޽ࠆ㧚㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

⴫ ਇേ↥ଔᩰߩ੍᷹
੍ ᷹ ୯ታ⃻୯

ࡕ࠺࡞ 1

ࡕ࠺࡞ 2

ࡕ࠺࡞ 3

493329.19 ජ⒳9 
129501.77 ᧲2 
111757.34 ർ1 
103990.38 ⷏3 
164479.59 ਛ᧛2 
157573.28 ᤘ๺6 
244369.73 ℰⓄ7 
65623.38 ᾲ↰1 
180054.16 ਛᎹ9 
49501.81 ᷼6 
94173.20 ධ9 
87028.87 ቞ጊ4 
72848.81 ✛7 
137027.27 ฬ᧲1 
135955.81 ᄤ⊕5 

661421.94
107094.86
135703.85
89643.07
153275.76
139896.39
234186.92
69985.73
152289.01
48287.1270767.00
83503.60
80925.47
128965.13
120073.92

641443.59
114621.23
139124.05
98755.26
160139.02
158321.86
243453.32
63557.45
178422.59
50929.06
84534.1780999.19
78281.93
138595.07
126625.12

630758.41
110946.56
136495.55
99996.04
161514.17
156389.39
244938.68
64494.75
178942.36
51969.9780168.18
79627.40
77998.62
138201.67
124146.35ᵈ㧕㧔 㧕ౝߪ㨬ၮḰ࿾⇟ภ㨭ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ଔᩰߩන૏ߪ౞ߢ޽ࠆ㧚⴫ ․ᕈଔᩰߩផቯផ ቯ ୯TIMEࡕ࠺࡞ 1

ࡕ࠺࡞ 2

ࡕ࠺࡞ 3

22 ජ⒳9 
23 ᧲2 
18 ർ1 
34 ⷏3 
27 ਛ᧛2 
30 ᤘ๺6 
33 ℰⓄ7 
21 ᾲ↰1 
49 ਛᎹ9 
47 ᷼6 
34 ධ9 
30 ቞ጊ4 
53 ✛7 
39 ฬ᧲1 
47 ᄤ⊕5 

7816.14
1210.53
1960.00
685.45
1475.86
1212.33
1844.95
866.42808.00267.10
541.11
723.64396.96859.69664.18

3470.58
593.20
920.02345.74705.99628.18
878.15
360.26
433.43
128.98295.95
321.38
175.81423.01320.69

4229.24
711.55
1118.58
433.84882.41
768.971094.88
453.03538.69
163.11
347.81391.53217.09522.72389.64ᵈ㧕㧔 㧕ౝߪ㨬ၮḰ࿾⇟ภ㨭ߢ޽ࠅ㧘TIME ߣଔᩰߩන૏ߪಽߣ౞ߢ޽ࠆ㧚⺑᣿ᄌᢙߦ߆߆ࠊࠆଥᢙࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߪ㧘ᄌᢙࠍࠨࡉࠬࠢ࡝ࡊ࠻ߢ␜ߒߡ b ߦઃߌࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ⸥ߐࠇ
ߡ޿ࠆ‫⥄ޕ‬Ꮖ⋧㑐߇޽ࠆߣ߈㧘ߘࠇࠍ⠨ᘦߒߥ޿ߣ㧘 t ⛔⸘㊂ߪࠗࡦࡈ࡟࡯࠻ߔࠆߎߣ߇޽ࠆ‫ ࡞࠺ࡕޕ‬1
ߢߪ㧘DIRECTIONS ߿ DOCTORS㧘WOODS㧘MEETING ߿ RESIDENTIAL ߇᦭ᗧߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ৻
ᣇ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ 2 ߣ 3 ߢߪ㧘SCHOOLYARDS ߿ INDUSTRIAL㧘UNDERUSED ߿ PAVED ߩ᦭ᗧᕈ߇ૐ
ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ߁ࠃ߃⸒ߣࠆ޽ߢߩ߽ࠆߔ␜଀ࠍࡦ࡚ࠪ࡯࡟ࡈࡦࠗߪࠄࠇߎޕ‬ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߪ㧘ਇേ↥ߩଔᩰࠍ੍᷹ߒߚࠅ․ᕈߩଔᩰࠍផቯߒߚࠅߔࠆ㓙ߦ೑↪ߐࠇࠆ‫࠺ࡕޕ‬㧙㧙ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߣࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴

࡞ߩ㑆ߢ੍᷹୯߿ផቯ୯ࠍᲧセߔࠆߎߣߪ㊀ⷐߦߥࠆ‫ޕ‬ផቯߦ↪޿ࠄࠇߥ߆ߞߚਇേ↥ࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣ
ߪ᦭↪ߢ޽ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬ᵈᗧߔߴ߈ߎߣߪ㧘৻ㇱߩਇേ↥ࠍ↪޿ߥ޿ࠃ߁ߦߔࠆߎߣߪ㧘৻⥸ൻᦨዊ 2 ਸ਼ផቯࠍⴕ߁႐วߦߪ㧘ฃߌ౉ࠇࠄࠇߥ޿߆߽ߒࠇߥ޿ߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽ࠆ‫ߪ࠲࡯࠺ޕ‬㧘214 ⚵޽ࠅ㧘ታ㛎ߦ߅޿ߡ᛽಴ߐࠇߚ 200 ⚵ࠍ⿥߃ࠆࠨࠗ࠭ࠍ᦭ߒߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߩ㧘ਇേ↥ଔᩰߩ੍᷹߿․ᕈଔᩰߩផቯߩߚ߼ߦߘߩ
৻ㇱࠍ᷷ሽߔࠆߎߣߪ㔍ߒ޿ߣᕁࠊࠇߚ‫ޕ‬‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ⺞ᩏ‫ߪޢ‬㧘ㇺ㆏ᐭ⋵߇ၮḰ࿾ࠍㆬቯߒߡ 7 ᦬ 1 ᣣᤨὐߩଔᩰࠍ್ቯߔࠆ߽ߩߢ㧘‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ౏␜‫⵬ࠍޢ‬ቢߔࠆߚ߼ߦ⊒ⴕߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ߢߎߘޕ‬㧘ၮḰ࿾ࠍขࠅ਄ߍߡࡕ࠺
࡞ߩࡄࡈࠜ࡯ࡑࡦࠬࠍᲧߴࠆߎߣߣߒࠃ߁‫ޕ‬ᗲ⍮⋵ߩ‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ⺞ᩏ‫ ޢ‬ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ ߣ‫ޡ‬ቇ඙೎↢ᵴⅣႺ⺞ᩏႎ๔ᦠ‫ࠍ࠲࡯࠺ߡߞ૶ࠍޢ‬ട߃ࠆ‫ޕ‬ၮḰ࿾ߪ㧘㨬↢ᵴⅣႺ࿑㨭ߦ␜ߐࠇߡ޿ߥ޿ߩߢ㧘‫ޡ‬ฬฎደᏒ࿾ଔ౏␜࡮
ၮḰ࿾૏⟎࿑‫߿ޢ‬ᗲ⍮⋵ડ↹ㇱ࿯࿾೑↪⺞ᢛ⺖ߩ‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ⺞ᩏၮḰ࿾᩺ౝ࿑‫ޢ‬㧔ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ 10 ᦬㧕ߦၮߠ޿ߡ
․ቯߔࠆ‫ ╙ޕ‬1 ⒳૑ዬኾ↪࿾ၞ߿╙ 2 ⒳૑ዬኾ↪࿾ၞ㧘૑ዬ࿾ၞߦ૏⟎ߒ㨬೑↪ߩ⃻ᴫ㨭߇㨬૑ቛ㨭ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆ 147 ߩၮḰ࿾ߩਛ߆ࠄ㧘‫ޡ‬࿾ଔ⺞ᩏ‫(ޢ‬ᤘ๺ 59 ᐕ)ߣᲧセߒߡ㧘ଔᩰߩᄌേ₸߇ฦ඙ߢᦨ߽ዊߐ޿ 15ߩၮḰ࿾ࠍㆬ߮㧘1 টᒰߚࠅߩ⺞ᩏଔᩰߦ࿾Ⓧߣഀᒁ₸ࠍដߌߡ㧘ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕ 1 ᦬ 1 ᣣᤨὐߩ PRICE ߩታ⃻୯ࠍ⵬㑆ߔࠆ 9)‫ޕ‬ၮḰ࿾ߩ PRICE ࠍ੍᷹ߒߚ⚿ᨐߪ⴫ 4 ߦਈ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ ࡞࠺ࡕޕ‬1 ߦߟ޿ߡߪ 11 ᑼ߇↪޿ࠄࠇߡ޿
ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ 2 ߣ 3 ߦߟ޿ߡߪ 9 ᑼ߇↪޿ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ታ⃻୯ߦኻߔࠆ੍᷹୯ߩᐔဋᐔᣇ⺋Ꮕߪ㧘ࡕ
࠺࡞ 1 ߢ 2.0721D+9 ߦߥࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ 2 ߣ 3 ߢ 1.4911D+9 ߣ 1.3021D+9 ߦߥࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘ⓨ㑆⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ⠨ᘦߒߥ޿ߣ㧘੍᷹ߩ♖ᐲ߇៊ߥࠊࠇࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ‫ ࡞࠺ࡕޕ‬3 ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ㧘(6)ᑼߣ(8)ᑼࠍ૶ߞߡ PRICE ߩኻᢙ୯ࠍ੍᷹ߒ㧘೨⠪ߦࠃࠆ⚿ᨐࠍขࠅ਄ߍߚ‫ޕ‬ᓟ⠪ߦࠃࠆᐔဋᐔᣇ⺋Ꮕߪ
1.3023D+9 ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᐔဋᐔᣇ⺋Ꮕߦၮߠߌ߫㧘WM4 ߇ㆬᅢߐࠇࠆߎߣߣߥࠈ߁‫ޕ‬
⴫ 5 ߪ㧘ਇേ↥ߩଔᩰߩ੍᷹୯ߢࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߩዉ㑐ᢙࠍ⹏ଔߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ㧘․ᕈߩଔᩰࠍ
ផቯߒߚ⚿ᨐࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ‫ߦ․ޕ‬㑐ᔃ߇ะߌࠄࠇࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ TIME ࠍขࠅ਄ߍࠆߎߣߦߒߚ‫ߩߎޕ‬ଥᢙࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩផቯ୯ߪ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ߆߆ࠊࠅߥߊ㧘᦭ᗧߢ㧘ᦼᓙߐࠇߚ╓ภࠍ઻ߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ ࡞࠺ࡕޕ‬1 ߦࠃࠆ․ᕈଔᩰߩផቯ୯ߪ㧘ଥᢙࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯ߩផቯ୯ߣ PRICE ߩ੍᷹୯ߦ㆑޿߇޽ࠆߚ߼ߦ㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ 2 ߿ 3 ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߣᄢ߈ߊ⇣ߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫⛘ߩࠄࠇߘޕ‬ኻ୯ߪ㧘ㇺᔃ߹ߢߩᚲⷐᤨಽ߇ 1 ಽ⍴❗ߐࠇࠆߎߣߦኻߔࠆ
ੱ‫⹏ߩޘ‬ଔࠍ⴫ࠊߒߡ޿ߡ㧘ᤘ๺ 60 ᐕߦ޽ߞߡߪ㧘ⓨ㑆⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇߩᚑᨐ߇೑↪ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚߎߣࠍ⠨߃ࠇ߫㧘ࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߩᠣੂ㗄ߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ߪ⠨ᘦߐࠇߕ㧘੤ㅢ㑐ㅪᛩ⾗ߩᔅⷐᕈ߇ㆊᄢߦ⹏ଔߐࠇ
ߚߣߒߡ߽㧘⇼⟵߇໒߃ࠄࠇࠆߎߣߪߥ߆ߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍ␜ໂߔࠆ‫ޕ‬㧠㧚⚿  ⺆㑐ᔃߩᜬߚࠇࠆࡕ࠺࡞߇✢ဳߢ޽ࠆߣߪ㒢ࠄߥ޿‫ޕ‬㕖✢ဳߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡℂ⺰ಽᨆࠍ⹜ߺࠆߎߣ
߇ᦼᓙߐࠇࠆ‫ࠢ࠶࠾࠼ࡋޕ‬ଔᩰ㑐ᢙߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘✢ဳᕈ߇ᡰᜬߐࠇߥ޿ߎߣ߽޽ࠅᓧࠆߩߢ㧘ߘ߁ߒߚಽ
ᨆߩ⚿ᨐߦၮߠ޿ߡផቯߣ੍᷹ࠍⴕ߁ߎߣߪᗧ⟵ࠍ᦭ߔࠆߎߣߦߥࠈ߁‫ߩߘޕ‬႐ว㧘㑐ᢙߩᒻ⁁ࠍ⺋ߞߡㆬᛯߔࠆߎߣ߇ᠣੂ㗄ߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ߦ❬߇ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߦ߽ᵈᗧࠍᛄ߁ᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ 10)‫ޕ‬ᔕ↪ಽᨆߢߪ㧘᦭ᗧߥଥᢙࡄ࡜ࡔ࠲࡯߇ᄙߊߥ߆ߞߚߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘౒✢ᕈߦ㑐ߒߡᬌ⸛ࠍട߃ߥߌࠇ߫ߥ
ࠄߥ޿߆߽ߒࠇߥ޿‫ߒߛߚޕ‬㧘ߘࠇߪࡋ࠼࠾࠶ࠢଔᩰ㑐ᢙߩ․ቯ߇චಽߦߥߐࠇߚᓟߦ⠨ᘦߐࠇࠆߴ߈໧
㗴ߢ޽ࠆߣߔࠆߣ㧘㕖✢ဳᕈߦ㈩ᘦߒߡᠣੂ㗄ߩ⥄Ꮖ⋧㑐ࠍ․ቯߔࠆߎߣ߇వ᳿໧㗴ߣߥࠆ 11)‫ޕ‬
9)ߘࠇࠄߦ㑐ߒߡⅣႺᜰᮡߩ୯ࠍ⍮ࠆߎߣߦ࿎㔍ߪߥ߆ߞߚ㧚߹ߚ㧘ᄌേ₸ߪ㧘ᐔဋߒߡ㧘1.4㧑ߦㆊ߉ߥ߆ߞߚ㧚ട⮮㧔2001, 2005㧕ࠍෳᾖ㧚11) ട⮮㧔2006㧕ࠍෳᾖ㧚
10)㧙㧙ળ⸘ᬌᩏ⎇ⓥ No.34㧔2006.9㧕

ᒁ↪ᢥ₂
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