Global Warming: Beyond the
Hockey Stick Controversy

Gabor Samjeské, G30 Designated Professor,
Graduate School of Science/Department ofChemistry

Background: Fuel Cells/Catalysts
From fossile fuels to renewable energies: Reducing the Carbon dioxide emission

https://www.peakoil.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/toyota-mirai-fuel-cell.jpeg (accesses 2020-07-19)

Content
1. Vocabulary
2. Introduction/History
3. Anthropogenic climate change & the controversy it sparked
4. Changes to Environment that already happened
5. What to expect in the future?
6. SummaryVocabulary
ClimatePerpetual ice

Ice age

Weather

Carbon dioxide

MethaneTemperature

Atmosphere

Infrared radiation

GlacierGreenhouse effect

Renewable energy

Anthropogenic climate change

Take a minute to check the meaning!

Introduction/History

Introduction/History

Global warming: Do think it is real: Yes or No?

Think about it for a minute, write down your opinion. After thislecture, reconsider and briefly state if your opinion changed
or not!?

Introduction/History
How things started ….
Svante August Arrhenius (19/2/1859 – 2/10/1927)
was a Swedish scientist.
● Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1903 (electrolytic

theory of dissociation)● Many research interests … “the origin of iceages” ….
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius (accessed 2020-07-19)

Introduction/History… the origin of ice ages: How can the repeated occurrence of long cold
periods of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere theory be explained?
Question: Are we now in the period of an ice age?
Answer: We are in a period of an ice age because North- and South-poleare both covered by extensive ice sheets. (“glacial period”)
If earth is free from extensive ice sheets (warm period): “interglacial”

Introduction/History
The question about the origin of“erratic boulders”:
Jean-Pierre Perraudin (1767–1858)
explained the erratic boulders in Val de
Bagnes (Valais, Swiss) caused byglaciers in the past had extended further→ Ice pushed the stones in today’s
position, melted, and left the stones
back.

Erratic boulder. Norber Erratics by Rob Glover / CC BY.

Introduction/History
Jens Esmark (1762–1839, a Danish-Norwegian geologist)● Sequence of ice ages

● 1824: Changes in climate are the cause of the ice ages (glaciations)→ Possibly changes in earth’s orbit● 1837: Karl Friedrich Schimper (1803–1867, German botanist): “Eiszeit”(German for ice age)

General understanding at that time:
Earth had cooled down steadily ⬌ periodical occurring ice ages

Introduction/History
James Croll (1875): “Climate and Time, in Their Geological Relations”● Changes in earth’s orbit cause derivations of the Gulf Stream→ Less heat for the arctic→ More ice → More reflection of sunlight → positive feedback
Changes in earth orbit ⬌ Ice ages: How to prove?
What are the changes in earth orbit and which effect could they have?

Introduction/History
Change in earth orbit:● Eccentricity● Precession● Tilt (obliquity)

The time scales!

https://www.universetoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/620px-milankovitchcycles.jpg(accessed: 2020-07-22)

Introduction/History
Milutin Milanković, “Serbian mathematician,astronomer, climatologist, geophysicist, civilengineer and popularizer of science. Milanković
gave two fundamental contributions to global
science. The first contribution is the "Canon of
the Earth's Insolation", which characterizes theclimates of all the planets of the Solar system”
The second contribution is …
(Wikipedia, accessed 2020-07-20)

Introduction/History“the explanation of Earth's long-term climate changes caused by changes in theposition of the Earth in comparison to the Sun, now known as Milankovitch
cycles (Milankovitch Theory).” (Wikipedia, accessed 2020-07-20)
1930 “Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Change”
Amount of sunlight each latitude received during all the earth’s orbital
variations.
(Sounds very scientific …)

Introduction/History

24.5’

21.5’

On a very extended time scale we get ….

Introduction/History
Milankovitch Theory

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence (accessed 2020-07-20)“Based on the orbital variations, Milankovitch predicted that the ice ages would peak every
100,000 and 41,000 years, with additional “blips” every 19,000 to 23,000 years.”

Introduction/History
A way to prove glaciation cycles: Isotope dating method: H2O (watermolecules)
Water molecules containing
light oxygen (H2O16)
evaporate more readily thanwater with heavy oxygen(H2O18).
➼ Oceans will be relatively
rich in O18 when glaciers
grow and hold theprecipitated O16
https://globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/
paleoclimate/ (accessed 2020-07-20)

Introduction/History
Milankovitch Theory
A very good fit of calculated
periodical changes in earth orbit
and isotope change pattern in 18O(a heavier version of the usual
oxygen 16O, found in air as O2
molecule)➼ All settled!

Really?
https://globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/
lectures/kling/paleoclimate/ (accessed 2020-07-20)

Anthropogenic climate change & thecontroversy it sparked

Anthropogenic Climate Change
What does this term mean?

Anthropogenic: of, relating to, or resulting from the influence of human beings onnature (Merriam-Webster)● How can human possibly influence nature so that the earth climatechanges?
● Would this even be detectable?

Anthropogenic Climate Change
The Milankovitch Theory can not explain long term climate changes, the“Great Ice Ages”
But … another problem…
Scientists started to analyze Greenland’s and Antarctica's glacier using
the H2O18 method to analyze paleoclimate changes from changing O18
concentrations in ice cores…

Anthropogenic Climate Change
Scientists take ice coresamples in cold, windy, andforbidding environments.
After drilling through solid
ice to retrieve a core, initial
measurements are taken
before it is sent away formore in-depth analysis andstorage. Photo credit:
NSIDC courtesy Ted
Scambos and Rob Bauer
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2013/08/core-climate-history 2020/9/14

Anthropogenic Climate Change… and found that:● changes in the ice cores supported the Milankovitch Theory● the last ice age ended about 10,000 yrs. ago● but since then temperatures changed very differentially from theexpected way:
➼ a steep temperature increase over a short time
➼ starting with the beginning of the industrialization …

Anthropogenic Climate Change“hockey stick”
https://www.amazon.co.jp/WARRIORWarrior%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AB%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1QX-MiniStick/dp/B073DJKFZN 2020/9/14

http://thebritishgeographer.weebly.com/global-climate-change.html 2020/9/14

Anthropogenic Climate Change
Industrialization: What do you think were thekey components of the industrialization
process?
● change form an agricultural society to a

manufacturing society● large scale manufacturing of steel:burning coal
● burning coal:carbon + oxygen (air) ➝ carbon dioxide,a green house gas

https://www.livescience.com/44186-who-inventedthe-steam-engine.html (accessed: 2020-07-20)

Anthropogenic Climate Change
Carbon dioxide, a green house gas: Svante Arrhenius!
In 1896, using basic principles of physical chemistry: Calculating towhich extend the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphereis related to an increase of the surface temperature of the earth by thegreen house effect….

In 1824, Joseph Fourier: The atmosphere must be responsible forcontaining the heat absorbed from the sun: A box with a glass lid, lightshines through the glass, the insides get warmer as the lid traps the heatAnthropogenic Climate Change
Energy from sun (light) is
partially “stored” in theatmosphere of the earth bycertain molecules as water(H2O) and carbon dioxide(CO2)➝ Earth’s surface warms
up(Methane, CH4, is anothervery import contributor to
the greenhouse effect)

https://www.uml.edu/sustainability/practices/air-climate/greenhouse-gas-information.aspx 2020/9/14

Anthropogenic Climate Change
A small anecdote about Svante Arrhenius:
Being born in Sweden, a country with a rather cold climate and long
winters in Northern Europe he had the following idea:“Let’s burn all the coal beds to generate enough CO2 that will warm up
earth’s atmosphere” …
("We would then have some right to indulge in the pleasant belief that ourdescendants, albeit after many generations, might live under a milder sky andin less barren surroundings than is our lot at present.”) (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/jun/30/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment2, accessed: 2020-07-22)

Anthropogenic Climate Change
When trying to explain climate change of the past times, no model will
explain the changes if not including greenhouse gases, especially carbon
dioxide…
… the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are much higher than in
the past 750,000 yrs. as revealed by the ice cores!

But why did levels of carbon dioxide change? All made up?? Most
importantly, when did scientists sounded their rather alerting findings to
the public?

Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Discovery
The first mentioning to the public: (https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html)● “Its first use was in a 1975 Science article by geochemist Wallace Broecker of Columbia
University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory: "Climatic Change: Are We on the
Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?"1● “Broecker's term was a break with tradition. Earlier studies of human impact on climate
had called it "inadvertent climate modification."2● “The Charney Report for its chairman, Jule Charney of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology in Cambridge, declared: "if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find]no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that thesechanges will be negligible."3
1 Wallace Broecker, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Science, vol. 189 (8 August 1975), 460-463.
2 For example, see: MIT, Inadvertent Climate Modification: Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971).

3National Academy of Science, Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. vii.

Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Announcement

https://www.staugustine.com/nationworld/20180618/james-hansen-wishes-he-wasnt-so-right-about-global-warming 2020/9/14

http://www.apimages.com/ 2020/9/14

Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Controversy
Thermometer for
direct measurementsof temperature only
since 1848 (Lord
Kelvin)⬌indirect data (tree ringsetc.)Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Controversy“CO2 theory of runaway
warming was propounded byHansen based on the
discovery that the superheated Venusian
atmosphere is consists
almost entirely of CO2?”(Presumption: Venus has a
90 times higher atmosphericpressure than earth, but
Arrhenius started all of it)Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Controversy”Climate change isnatural”⬌ of course it isnatural! … but that is
missing the point!
➼ the rateofchange is the crux ofthe matter!

Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Controversy”There isn’t enoughagreement in scienceon it and it is notcredible”⬌ Things get difficult
when people stop
sticking to facts but
start to believe

Anthropogenic Climate Change: The Controversy”If carbon dioxide levels changed periodically before humankind entered
the stage, how could we explain it?
● Global Conveyor Belt

Related to each other!
● Position of the continents● Volcanism ⬌ only if there is a period of super active volcanism

Anthropogenic Climate Change: Global Conveyor
Belt
The position of thecontinents allows
exchange of ocean
warm and cold ocean
waters➼ Melting brings fresh
water into the sea
water and changes its
freezing pointhttps://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence/paleoclimatolo
gy_evidence_2.php (accessed: 2020-07-21)

Anthropogenic climate change & the controversy it
sparked

Summary question: Do you think that carbon dioxide concentration in theatmosphere is the origin of the climate change or the result of climate change?

Think about it for a minute, write down your opinion

Changes to Environment that alreadyhappened

Changes to Environment that already happened
The change inminimum size of thefrozen part of Artic sea
ice, 1980 ~ 2019:
7.7 -> 4.2 million km2(- 45% in just 39 yrs.)

Changes to Environment that already happened“The glacier “has been retreating for thelast 100 years,” according to Ian
Joughin, senior principal engineer at thePolar Science Center, part of the
University of Washington's Applied
Physics Laboratory.”“Jakobshavn is now shedding ice nearly
three times as quickly as it was 20
years ago, dumping enormous andgrowing quantities into the ocean. It's
contributed 0.1 millimeters per year
to worldwide sea-level rise — morethan 3 percent of the 3 mm produced
globally — for the past decade.”A view from the village of Ilulissat, Greenland of icebergs that broke off from the Jakobshavn Glacier on July 24, 2013.
As the sea levels around the globe rise, researchers affiliated with the National Science Foundation and otherorganizations are studying the melting glaciers and long-term ramifications.
Credit:Joe Raedle (https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-03-09/we-have-problem-science-behind-risingseas?fbclid=IwAR1aw-TwI91w0ZFJV2PxE3UQ9fLOS7VWhgP3Y9xEm_hDhy7GBJLmpaMGIiQ) accessed: 2020-07-21

Changes to Environment that already happened
Rising sea levels insome parts of theworld have let sunkislands already300 yrs. old trees, drowning
https://www.9news.com.au/world/60-minutes-solomon-islands-climate-change-global-warming-rising-seaenvironment/3712f288-6c55-4b5e-aeb6-96adefb1e2bc#close (accessed: 2020-07-21)

Changes to Environment that already happened

Summary question: What other examples can you find that are a consequence ofrising temperatures?

Think about it for a minute, write down your opinion

What to expect in the future?

What to expect in the future?

Quo vadis earth?

Image copyright: GETTY IMAGES
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment46384067?SThisFB&fbclid=IwAR3YJ54vOE11JuNPxQLNuqnXy0gcBOGxP2_Nwxt99HlkJ-uzVE-1Ioui4MY (accessed: 2020-07-21)

What to expect in the future?
“Scientists now agree
that we actually needto keep temperaturerises to below 1.5C.”

Quo vadis earth?

Image copyright: GETTY IMAGES

What to expect in the future?
“It's the faster-growing cities thatare most at risk, including
megacities like Lagos in Nigeria
and Kinshasa in the Democratic
Republic of Congo.”“Some 84 of the world's 100
fastest-growing cities face"extreme" risks from risingtemperatures and extreme
weather brought on by climatechange.”Quo vadis earth?

Image copyright: GETTY IMAGES

What to expect in the future?
“One of the biggest ways to reduce
your environmental impact on theplanet is to modify your diet to includeless.”“The IPCC1 says we need to: buy less meat,
milk, cheese and butter; eat more locallysourced seasonal food - and throw less of itaway; drive electric cars but walk or cycle
short distances; take trains and buses
instead of planes; use videoconferencing
instead of business travel; use a washingline instead of a tumble dryer; insulate
homes; demand low carbon in every
consumer product.” 1Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/

Quo vadis earth?

Image copyright: GETTY IMAGES

Summary / Conclusion● There is not one single explanation that completely explains climate change● Carbon dioxide emission/atmospheric concentration is a key factor● Climate change is real, too many indicators that can’t be denied● There might be a chance to keep at least things as they are now● Everybody can help by reflecting about his own life style …..

Summary / Conclusion
Summary question(s)1) Coming back to the initial question: Did you change your opinion about global
warming? Is a treat or just a hoax? Give reasons for your opinion
2) Do you know about any examples how climate change has effected you, yourfamily or friends?

3) What do you think is the best that you could do to prevent things from getting
worse?

Think about it for a minute, turn to your neighbours andshare! (Alternatively, discuss with friends and/or family)

THANK YOU!!