Urgent Statement by the President of Science Council of Japanon Climate Change and Call for Action

To all citizens of Japan,

We have all greatly benefited from modern civilization, but we are now at a crossroads.

If we continue down the current path, by around 2040 temperatures will increase more than 1.5℃
compared to pre-industrial levels. Weather and water-related natural disasters will increase,biodiversity loss will progress, and our livelihoods, health, and safety will be at risk.

To avoid this path, we must start decreasing global CO2 emissions immediately, and must steer ourcourse drastically to achieve net carbon neutrality by mid-century.

The path of action to take is not simply one of discomfort and burden, but rather one where we canachieve a prosperous society through changing our economic and social systems such as our energy,transportation, urban, and agricultural systems. The world, including Japan, is starting to take action,
but at a much-too-slow pace.

We hope that you will join the movement to speed up change, be it by making choices in theeconomy related to production, consumption, investment, and distribution, and/or by proactively
speaking out and taking action. We researchers are also committed to collaborating closely withcitizens.

Urgent Statement
1.

Climate change, which could pose a risk to human existence, is definitely
happening.

2.

We must move forward quickly to strengthen international and domesticcooperation toward slowing down climate change.

3.

To slow down climate change, we need to integrate management of our basis forsurvival, including the atmosphere and water, energy, and food.

4.

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems are a prerequisite for maintaining thebiosphere on Earth that includes us humans. Protecting our ecosystems plays
an important role in slowing down climate change.

5.

We need a new economic and social system for future generations now.

The Science Council of Japan has been discussing actions to take against climate change in thefollowing committees: Committee on Promotion and Cooperation of Future Earth, FE-WCRP Joint
Subcommittee of Environmental Studies Committee and Earth/Planetary Sciences Committee, HD
Subcommittee of Environmental Studies Committee and Regional Studies Committee, Future
Design Subcommittee of Environmental Studies Committee and Economic Studies Committee, andPlanet Human Biosphere Subcommittee of Earth/ Planetary Sciences Committee, in close
cooperation with the Future Earth Japan Global Hub (The University of Tokyo, National Institute ofEnvironmental Studies, Science Council of Japan and others), and Future Earth Asia Regional
Centre (Research Institute for Humanity and Nature).

We created this Urgent Statement to coincide with the timing of the UN Climate Action Summit
2019 that will be held in New York on September 23rd.
We will continue to proactively contribute toward the solution of global issues including climatechange, while collaborating closely with international academic institutions and United Nationsorganizations.

September 19, 2019
Juichi Yamagiwa
President, Science Council of Japan

1. Climate change, which could pose a risk to human existence, is definitelyhappening.
The increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human activity is causing the earth's
climate to warm (known as climate change or global warming). Warming since the second halfof the 20th century is more pronounced. If global GHG emissions continue to rise, there will be
an increase in global average temperature of over 4 degrees Celsius (compared to pre-industrialtimes), and it is predicted that the Arctic sea ice will disappear in the summertime, average global
sea level rise will reach 1m, part of the land and much of the coral reefs will disappear, and coastal
fishing will be hit hard [IPCC, 2013].

Another point of concern is that a number of elements in the climate system will suddenly change
due to climate change, affecting each other, and reaching a tipping point whereby the climate
system's equilibrium suddenly and drastically changes. Scientists say that this could lead to atransition into a hot house climate of the earth, as happened 15 million years ago, over the courseof a few hundred years [Future Earth and Earth League, 2018]. Since humanity has neverexperienced such a hot house climate before, there is a real possibility that it would have a serious
impact on our current global production activities and economies.

One effect from climate change is of particular concern in Japan; more than rising temperatures,
an expected higher frequency and intensity of rainfall is worrying. This is due to increased water
vapor from higher air and sea surface temperatures. For example, experts predict that if we donot take action, the frequency of heavy rain in East Asia (including Japan) which currently only
happens about once every 20 years, will increase to once every 2 years by the end of this century[IPCC, 2012]. According to research observing rainfall since the Meiji Era for more than 100years, the frequency of heavy rainfall is undeniably increasing.

Due to increases in heavy rain frequency in Japan, water-related natural disasters (such as floods
and landslides), show a trend of increasing frequency and scale in recent years [Japan Academic
Network for Disaster Reduction, 2018].

2. We must move forward quickly to strengthen international and domesticcooperation toward slowing down climate change

Global average temperature has already risen 1℃ since the Industrial Revolution, and is predicted
to reach 1.5℃ by around 2040 [IPCC, 2018]. The Paris Agreement, which was adopted inDecember 2015 with the participation of 196 countries and became effective the next year, is aninternational framework on climate change that aims to keep temperature rise well below 2℃. In
this agreement, each country is obligated to prepare, submit, and maintain successive GHG

emission targets, and to pursue domestic mitigation measures to achieve them.. However, there
is no international framework for penalizing countries that do not meet the targets. Moreover,there are issues in international cooperation such as President Trump of the United States-thesecond largest emitter country- declaring to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Achieving theParis Agreement targets will be difficult under the current situation.
To avoid a situation in which we continue to increase GHG emissions at current trajectories andcross over tipping points, we must take as much action as we can. Moreover, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2018 that if we keep the rise intemperature within 1.5℃ (and not 2℃) by the end of this century, the impacts of climate change
will greatly decrease (compared to if temperatures rise 2℃). Differences will be especiallyapparent in extreme weather events, global sea level rise, Arctic sea ice melting, terrestrial/marineecosystems, water resources, grain production volume, and coastal fishing. But to achieve thatgoal, we must realize net zero global CO2 emissions by 2050 and decrease emissions of otherGHGs as much as possible [IPCC, 2018].

To achieve this 1.5℃ target, each country must implement rapid and strong mitigation measuresof GHG emissions reductions, and adaptation measures to minimize the impacts at a regional andnational level. In addition to international cooperation, national and local governments, andbusinesses should take leadership in acting toward this target.

3. To slow down climate change, we need to integrate management of our basis forsurvival, including the atmosphere and water, energy, and food.
The important thing to note here is that it is not simply a matter of decreasing GHGs such as CO2.
In addition to GHGs, human activity has released a great amount of atmospheric pollutants suchas aerosols, including PM2.5. These substances act to suppress the greenhouse effect by reflecting
sunlight. On the other hand, there are atmospheric pollutants that have a strong warming effectcalled short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). These are substances such as black carbon,
tropospheric ozone and methane. We need to simultaneously reduce health hazards andcounteract climate change by implementing measures to reduce SLCPs.

There is a close reciprocal relationship between water, energy, and food, which are the basis forhuman survival. For example, to achieve the 1.5℃ target, we need countermeasures such asincreasing the production of biofuels. However, this could have a serious impact on the ecosystem,
as well as decrease food grain production in certain regions [IPCC, 2019]. When constructinghydropower dams, we need to take care, at the same time, of conservation of water resources,
flood control, and biodiversity protection.

Many of the granary regions in the world are dependent on groundwater, and thus food production

is causing groundwater depletion. For example, Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is the lowest
among developed countries at 37%, and we import large quantities of grains from the UnitedStates and other countries. As a result, not only does it cost a lot of transportation energy forimporting, but also the groundwater of the Great Plains in the US is experiencing depletion due
to grain production. Increasing our food self-sufficiency rate could lead both to slowing climatechange and protecting water resources.
Climate change solutions require not only reduction of GHGs, but also the consideration ofatmospheric protection, while supplying water resources and food at the same time. To do this,we need to establish a new economic and social system that can conduct integrated managementof resources of water, energy, and food, both for global and local perspectives.

4. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems are the prerequisite for maintaining thebiosphere on Earth that includes us humans. Protecting our ecosystems plays animportant role in slowing down climate change.
Biodiversity protection should not be a stand-alone issue separate from climate change. Planting
trees is considered a good measure to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and a healthy forest
ecosystem is an essential factor in long-term CO2 reduction. Diverse terrestrial ecosystems,
including forests, play a significant role (ecosystem services) in maintaining the surface
environment of the Earth through water and soil conservation, provision of food, and atmosphericstability. Using these renewable resources produced from ecosystems will greatly contribute to asustainable society. However, rapid climate change leads to the degradation of ecosystems andecosystem services, and weakens the basis of survival for us humans. Moreover, ecosystems canplay a role in risk reduction for natural disasters that are caused by climate change, as was pointed
out in the reconstruction efforts of the Great East Japan Earthquake disaster [UNEP, 2015].

A healthy marine ecosystem can maintain CO2 absorbing functions. Increase of ocean surface
water temperature due to the climate change, however, diminishes the absorption of CO2 by ocean
surfaces, and decreases dissolved oxygen levels necessary for the survival of marine life. At thesame time, a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 levels increases dissolved CO2 in ocean surface
water, leading to acidification of the waters and degradation of coral reefs in tropical oceans. This
causes a deterioration of the whole marine ecosystem, and risks the sustainability of coastal
fisheries [IPBES, 2019].

5. We need a new economic and social system for future generations now.
The Paris Agreement goal to keep global average temperature rise below 1.5℃ by the end of thiscentury needs to be achieved to keep the earth surface system (including climate and biosphere)
in a state close to the present one. However, to achieve this condition, we need to utilize renewableenergy to its maximum potential and achieve almost zero CO2 and other GHGs emissions byaround 2050 [IPCC, 2018].
To achieve this target, not only do we need to cut GHG emissions, we also need to establish anew economic and social system that can maintain, secure, and manage, in an integrated manner,humanity's basis for survival - food, energy, and water- with ecosystem conservation as the basis.

This new economic and social system should be created with and for the next generation that will
live in the latter half of the 21st century and afterward. To promote this transformation of society,we need not only to change governance at the international and national levels, but also to raiseawareness at regional/local communities, business communities, and citizen levels.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to be achieved by 2030, should be considered as afirst step for the next ten years for nations, local governments, and business communities, tocreate a new economic and social system that can slow down climate change.

Existing academic disciplines will also need to be renewed and transformed toward this directionof creating new economic and social systems. Schools and education systems should also
explicitly be oriented in this direction.

We humans have come to understand the history and dynamics of our planet Earth, and we are
the only species that can consider the sustainability of its future. Yet, we still do not know fully
how to design and create a new economic and social system for achieving a sustainable planet.
Nevertheless, the time has come for all of us living on planet Earth to put all our efforts toward
solving this critical issue.

*About Future EarthFuture Earth is an international platform that works toward sustainability through the promotion ofresearch, in cooperation with society. It was established in 2013 under the support of organisations
such as the International Science Council, five United Nations organisations (UNEP, UNESCO, WMO,UNU, SDSN), STS forum, and the Belmont Forum (international association of national researchfunders).
Future Earth website: https://futureearth.org/
Future Earth Japan Global Hub website: https://ifi.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/units/futureearth/
Future Earth Asia Regional Centre website: http://old.futureearth.org/asiacentre/References:
Future Earth and Earth League, 2018: 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2018https://briefs.futureearth.org/10-insights-2018/

IPBES, 2019: Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity andecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
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IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
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http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/SREX/report/full-report/

IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I tothe Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context
of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, andefforts to eradicate poverty
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IPCC, 2019: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable
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https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/

UNEP, 2015: Promoting ecosystems for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation:
Opportunities for Integration. Discussion Paper.
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/14071/EcoDRR_Discussion_paper_2015.pdf

Science Council of Japan, 2016. Recommendation: Towards the Realisation of a Sustainable Earth
Society – Promotion of Future Earth –. 5 April, 2016. Committee on Promotion of Future Earth,
Science Council of Japan.
http://www.scj.go.jp/ja/info/kohyo/pdf/kohyo-23-t226.pdf