HYDROMETEOROLOGICALAND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION
PLAN FOR HONDURASJANUARY 2019
COLL ABOR ATION BET WEENTHE GOVERNMENT OF HONDUR AS
AND THE WORLD BANKHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 2019

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Honduras is vulnerable to all types of disasters, including drought,flooding, tropical cyclones, hurricanes, landslides and forest fires.
Its geographical location and the mountainous topography of a largepart of the country influence this vulnerability. Honduras experiences
1.67 disasters per year on average, with an average of 521 people losing
their life and 402 people getting hurt, and a much larger number ofpeople surviving and being affected by the disaster. 1

Honduras is the country most affected by extreme
meteorological phenomena in the world according
to the Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2. Figures forthe past four decades show that Honduras is thecountry in the region with greatest economic losses
as a result of disaster and eighth across the world.
These losses are expected to increase as a result ofthe ENSO phenomenon (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and climate change. More than 50% of disasters that occur in the country are linked to eventswith a hydrometeorological origin.
Extreme meteorological and hydrological events
negatively affect several key economic sectors andinfrastructures of the country. On average, economic

1

Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT): The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.

2

Germanwatch: Global Climate Risk Index 2018.

losses amount to approximately 150 million dollars
per year, which represents 1.66% of its GDP. 3
Hydrometeorological and climate information
provided to the different socioeconomic sectorsin Honduras is insufficient, as is the ability of thenational institutions to make assessments and carryout forecasts. Bridging the gap of meteorological,hydrological and climate services to improve thesafety of the population and to strengthen the
productive industries in the economy is a priority,especially in regard to improving early warning
systems. The Government of Honduras requested
technical assistance from the World Bank to draft aModernisation Plan that can respond to such need.

3Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT): The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 2019

2OBJECTIVE OF THE
MODERNISATION PLAN

The objective of the Modernisation Plan is tosupport the development of climate resilience ofHonduras by improving climate, meteorologicaland hydrological services and by strengthening
early warning systems (EWS) regarding hydrometeorological and climate risk and the management of water resources.

The Modernisation Plan is based on an analysis ofthe gaps that exist between the demand made byusers and the need for meteorological, hydrologicaland climate services versus the ability of the institutions providing such information to respond to suchdemand in Honduras.
The Plan puts forward actions to increase the country’s ability to produce and communicate hydrometeorological and climate information. This information will contribute to supplying reliable, suitable andrelevant services demanded by the different socioeconomic sectors in Honduras. Special attention will
be paid to strengthening early warning systems andhelping users to access, interpret and use this information alongside other technical information as afoundation for planning and decision-making.
Given their institutional competences, the Modernisation Plan approach is led by the Centre for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies of
the Permanent Contingency Committee (COPECOCENAOS) and the Office for Energy, Natural Resources,
Environment and Mining (MiAmbiente), as core institutions. The Plan also counts on the participationof the Civil Aviation Agency of Honduras (AHAC),
National Service for Aqueducts and Sewage Systems (SANAA), National Electrical Energy Company(ENEE) and the National Autonomous University of
Honduras (UNAH). Although these institutions play avery active role, their role will be to coordinate value
chains in meteorological, hydrological and climate
services that include other institutions that use dataand products, such as the agricultural industry andother industries, as well as the end users.
In short, strengthening meteorological, hydrological and climate services is a cross-sectoral activity
that should involve several institutions from the public and economic sectors and the wider population,
forming a true hydrometeorological national system.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 20193

DIAGNOSTICS:
MAIN FINDINGSCOPECO-CENAOS and MiAmbiente, the two main
institutions in charge of meteorological and hydrological activities have insufficient human andfinancial resources to satisfy the demand of users
and to develop new services. Not many staff in either
institution is qualified in meteorology and hydrology.
Strengthening human talent, both in quantity and inincreasing their capabilities, is a determining factor
to improving services.
Besides staff limitations, CENAOS, within the structure of COPECO, does not have an operational structure in place that can develop the hydrometeorological and climate activities it should be carrying outas the technical division of COPECO. The interconnected areas of hydrometeorological observation,
data analysis and forecasting required to activate
EWS should fall within its organisational structure.

allocation of subterranean water. Honduras does
not count on a good national water network or areference national laboratory to regulate water
quality analysis and protocols.
Meteorological modelling in Honduras is very limited. AHAC operates the regional version of theWRF model and uses these results in aeronautical meteorology. Meteorologists at COPECO-CENAOS and AHAC are in contact at technical levelin regard to forecasts. The main problem faced byboth COPECO and AHAC in regard to meteorological modelling is the lack of qualified staff and ofsuitable equipment and facilities for this task. Honduras does not have a unified national hydrologicalforecasting system in place to manage its water
resources and to prevent flooding.

There are current limitations to accessing hydrometeorological and climate data and products.
Furthermore, participation from users in defining
meteorological, hydrological and climate products
and services geared towards products and services
that specifically respond to each industry is low. Inthis regard, institutions in Honduras with competences in meteorology, hydrology or climate activities have expressed the need for a national mechanism that fosters the exchange and easy access to
information from public institutions and users.

Most EWS regarding flooding in Honduras work on
the basis of predefined thresholds according to theamount, intensity or duration of rainfall, and themeasurement of river flow and water levels. They do
not use rain forecasts, which could improve timings
in regard to anticipating warnings and alarms. In
the sphere of EWS, the monitoring and forecastingstage based on defined thresholds is the weakest
stage in the chain of elements. To date, no EWS for
drought has been coordinated despite the negative
consequences of prolonged drought for agriculture,especially in the Dry Corridor.

There are shortfalls in the current infrastructure of
COPECO-CENAOS and MiAmbiente for meteorological and hydrological monitoring and forecasting capabilities using modern tools (which includes
remote sensors). Limited budgets for maintenanceand low investment in observation infrastructure
are leading to the progressive wear of equipment
which requires periodical calibration. There is no
integrated monitoring system in place regarding
subterranean water. Also, there is no consolidated
database of the monitored pools to support theHydrometeorological and climate information presented to users through the media is very limited
and is difficult to access and interpret. COPECO
does not have a space for CENAOS on its website
showing meteorological forecasts with brief explanations, seasonal climate forecasts and climate conditions regarding the rain or temperature recorded
in different areas across the country. Furthermore,
all such information should be illustrated with radarand satellite images and an interpretation thereofso that users may understand what they mean.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 2019

4RECOMMENDATIONS
OF THE
MODERNISATION PLAN
The Plan proposes 20 activities grouped into thesethree spheres, structured across a 6-year timeline,with activities to be implemented in the short term
(1 to 3 years) and in the middle term (4 to 6 years).

The experience of many countries that have undertaken this process shows that modernisation ofhydrometeorological services needs to tackle threespheres complementarily:1) Institutional strengthening.
2) Modernisation of the observationand forecasting infrastructure.
3) Improvement in the provision of services.

The three complementary spheres to modernisehydrometeorological services:3

1

IMPROVEMENT IN
THE PROVISION
OF SERVICESINSTITUTIONAL
STRENGTHENING

2MODERNISATION OF
THE OBSERVATION
AND FORECASTINGINFRASTRUCTURE

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 2019

1INSTITUTIONAL
STRENGTHENING

The proposal is made to establish a national platformthat fosters the exchange of information and thedevelopment of hydrometeorological and climate
services for the different sectors of users. Additionally,
the recommendation is made to design a staff training and qualification programme (in the short, middleand long term) towards strengthening the technicalcapabilities of COPECO-CENAOS, MiAmbiente-DGRH,
Aeronautical Meteorology-AHAC, SANAA and the2Agriculture and Farming Office (SAG), with qualified
staff to perform different roles in meteorology andhydrology and the development and implementationof products and services for users. The recommendation is also made to provide CENAOS with a travel planthat allows it to suitably develop the work areas fora National Meteorological System in stages, covering
staffing needs with the required profiles, when economic resources to carry this out are made available.

MODERNISATION OF THE OBSERVATION
AND FORECASTING INFRASTRUCTURE

Strengthening the observation infrastructure isconsidered to be the basis for improving priority
services such as meteorological and hydrologicalforecasts to support the EWS, especially in regard
to flooding and landslides or for the agriculturalindustry and water resources, for instance. This pillar takes into account the strengthening of observation networks, redesigning these networks toimprove optimisation, operation and maintenance.
The strengthening of equipment considers the following priority areas, according to demand: procuring satellite images to monitor and forecast atmospheric and environmental conditions; automaticweather and hydrological stations; and stations
to measure subterranean water and water quality. The Modernisation Plan establishes the inte-

35gration of a national hydrometeorological and climate database, providing equipment, telecom andtechnical assistance requirements in order to havereal-time and historical data available online for allparticipating institutions. Actions recommended forthis pillar include the improvement of weather andclimate forecasts through the professional trainingof staff and participation of the relevant institutions
for each type of forecast. Suitable management ofwater resources is a priority in Honduras, especiallyin the Dry Corridor, where hydrological modelling isrequired. This includes a calculation of water balance towards water management. The Modernisation Plan emphasizes the development and deployment of hydrological forecasting models to support
the EWS and water resources in Honduras.

IMPROVEMENT IN THE
PROVISION OF SERVICESThis pillar includes activities to bring the services
provided closer to the specific needs of different
users. In particular, there are three activities whose
development and implementation are considered
to be key to achieving the objectives of the Plan:a) establishing committees of users and the providers of data and hydrometeorological and climate
products; b) strengthening the service provision sys-tem to improve assistance to users; and c) trainingof users. Similarly, this pillar of the Plan establishes
the development of three areas that are considereda priority: 1) strengthening of EWS for fast events(flooding and landslides) in vulnerable regions; 2)development of EWS for droughts, especially in the
Dry Corridor; and 3) the development of climate services for the agriculture and farming industry.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR HONDURAS • JAN 20196

COSTS AND BENEFITSOF THE
MODERNISATION PLAN
The Modernisation Plan reflects on the agreement
between the main stakeholders involved regarding the priorities for coming years and the strategicplans that should be followed for Honduras to counton the tools that allows it to better face hydrometeorological threats and the effects of climate change,
as well as to manage its natural resources in a sustainable way to benefit its economy and population.

The project was feasible in all scenarios considered,with all current net value estimates being morethan 0 and benefit-cost ratios being significantly
higher than 1.
Also, potential total benefits have been underestimated in the cost-benefit analysis as manyindustries have not been included in the economic
analysis and the reduction in the loss of human life
(estimated at 15 losses per year on average) has notbeen taken into account.

The estimated investment to implement the Plan
is 10 million USD. The Plan was completed with an
economic analysis of the profitability of middle andlong term investment with a cost-benefit analysis that took into account potential benefits of theactions proposed based on three different methods:
1) Protecting the population and reducing economic
losses that are mainly related to the risk of flooding
and landslides.

In short, the economic analysis of the investment
proposed for the Modernisation Plan for the following 15 years estimates an average cost-benefit ratio of almost 1:7 on average; that is, a returnof $7 for every dollar invested, which means theproject is economically feasible.

2) Favouring the development of industries that are
sensitive to climate variability, such as agriculture.
3) Other joint benefits, such as benefits for the water,energy and transport industries, for instance.

CO S T S
B EN EFI T S
AC C U M U L AT ED N P V

1460

MILLIONS USD

1250

10CURRENT BENEFITS VALUE
60.39 MM USD
CURRENT COSTS VALUE
8.78 MM USD
CURRENT NET VALUE
51.61 MM USD
COST-BENEFIT RATIO
1 : 6.940830620410200-10-2-4YE A R S

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THIS INITIATIVE BENEFITED FROM THE FINANCIALSUPPORT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN THROUGHTHE "GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION
AND RECOVERY (GFDRR)" OF THE WORLD BANK .

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