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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
International Tourism

Domestic Tourism

Pre-COVID19 Average

During COVID19 Average

Percentchange

Pre-COVID19 Average

During COVID19 Average

PercentchangeGlobal arrival

915 914133 654

85%

Domestic
overnight trips*

3 333 812

1 567 165

53%

Overseas arrivals

187 328

12 24693%

Accommodation
occupancy**

48%

18%

55%

African arrivals

662 837

116 21282%

Food spending**

5 747 750

3 760 375

35%

Oct - Feb 2019/20 vs 2020/21* Aug - Feb 2019/20 vs 2020/21; ** May-Apr 2018/19 vs 2020/21

International arrivals are recovering the slowest of
all indicators with travel and re-entry restrictions
the most likely drivers. Arrivals from Africancountries are recovering fastest driven by both land
and air travel, while globally travel from Russia has
shown significant upward trajectory since opening
up international arrivals in September 2020. The
USA and India are also recovering faster than otherpriority markets, but are still 86% lower than preCOVID-19 levels.

Across the main indicators of recovery, domestic
road movement and spend on food services areclosest to reaching pre-pandemic levels. This isindicative of people returning to normal day-today activities, but the much slower recovery ofaccommodation and domestic air travel suggests
either a hesitancy to participate in what could beperceived as more risky activities, as well as areprioritisation of spending due to less disposable
income or a shift in preferences.

Vaccine incidence combined with infection rates
will play an important role in determining future
travel prospects from other territories into South
Africa and Canada, USA, Germany, Italy and France
are showing the most positive signs of reaching therequired levels for travel to be assumed safe again.
This will however be offset by re-entry barriers
which are significant for all these countries except
the USA. Medium term international recovery will
therefore be largely dependent on African arrivals,
with Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia showing thehighest recovery to date.

Domestic occupancy recovery is primarily driven
by Caravan and Camping activity, likely broughton by a behavioural change in holiday activity due
to infection safety concerns.
Food spending is showing strong recovery driven
exclusively by fast food expenditure. The
behavioural shift can likely also be attributed tosafety concerns, however ongoing changes in
restrictions imposed on sit-down eating as
infection rates change are likely impacting theoverall recovery of restaurants.

PERCENT RECOVERY OF TOURISM INDICATOR METRICS DURING THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC RELATIVE TO 2019 LEVELS

(
(
(
(
(

6%)
8%)
38%)
38%)
80%)

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INTRODUCTION
Fifteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic, thetourism sector continues to feel the impacts ofemergency measures implemented across the globe
to contain the spread of the virus. While somegreen shoots of recovery are starting to emerge,
uncertainties around the rate of vaccination rollouts, continued evolution of virus variants andregulations both abroad and at home will influence
the sustainable recovery of the sector in the months
to come. Ongoing civil unrest in KwaZulu-Natal andGauteng is also likely to dampen demand in the
short-term.

In this report we unpack the following tounderstand where we are on the road to recovery:●

The levels of international tourism andarrivals into South Africa and the trends
behind these,●

The status of the pandemic and vaccination
rollouts across key international source
markets,●

Levels of domestic tourism recovery andrelated sectors.

How to read the recovery graphs:
Recovery of the sector is consistently measured throughout the report by comparing current
performance to the comparable period in 2019. The chart below details how to interpret this analysis:

1

Light dashed lines indicate thechanges in lockdown levels.

2Black dashed line at 0% indicateslevel at which metric would haverecovered to 2019 levels.

3

Percent change oflatest available
value

Metric key ( 2%)4 This line indicates how the
metric has recovered over timecompared to 2019 pre-COVID-19
levels.
•In this case from March 2020
to July 2020 it was 100%lower than 2019 (ie there
was no recovery).

•

By March 2021, the metrichas recovered to the samelevels as 2019 (-0%)

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UNDERSTANDING KEY TRENDS
IN INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

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INTERNATIONAL TOURISM
How does international tourism recovery compare across the globe?
● Going into 2021, international tourist arrivals
into South Africa are still 81% lower thancompared to the same period in 2019.
● The Middle East and the rest of Africa show asimilar level of recovery.
● South Africa’s performance is, however, better
than the global average and European levels
which currently sit 88% and 89% lower than
2019.

Although still 80% lower
than 2019, recovery ofinternational tourism into
South Africa is on parwith other global regions.

● Asia and the Pacific have shown the slowest
recovery with international tourism levels still
97% lower than in 2019.
● While, the Americas are seeing a slightly betterrecovery in international tourism, despite being
73% lower than the same period in 2019.

FIGURE 1: CHANGE IN INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS INTO EACH WORLD REGIONRELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

South Africa ( 81%)
Americas ( 73%)
Middle East ( 81%)Africa ( 81%)World ( 88%)
Europe ( 89%)
Asia and the Pacific ( 97%)

Data source: UNWTO Recovery Tracker1 and StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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Regional contribution to international tourism recovery in South Africa● Since the reopening of borders to international
tourists in October 2020, most regions have seen amodest recovery with a distinct peak of arrivals
over the December period.
● Africa Land markets have made the greatest
contribution to arrivals into South Africa. African
Land and Africa Air exhibit the greatest level of
inbound recovery but are still 76% and 77% lower
than in 2019.
● Asia, Middle East and North America areapproximately 87% lower than 2019.
● Whereas arrivals from Europe, Central & SouthAmerica are still more than 90% lower than in
2019.

● A notable 5% increase in arrivals can be seen inarrivals stemming from North America over the lastmonth of available data.
● This increase likely reflects the announcement3 inearly April by the United States that vaccinatedcitizens are no longer required to self-quarantine
after returning from international travel, thereby
removing a major barrier to the resumption of
travel.
● The associated increase in travel due to the removalof a barrier to reentry signals that similar easing ofrestrictions in other regions would speed up therecovery of the industry and allow vaccinatedtravellers to resume travel to South Africa.

FIGURE 2: RECOVERY OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS INTO SOUTH AFRICA
RELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

76%)
77%)
86%)
87%)
88%)
92%)
93%)
97%)

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

FIGURE 3: MARKET SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY
BEFORE COVID-19 COMPARED TO DURING COVID-19

Market share (%)

Pre-COVID-19
Market share

During COVID-19
Market share
AverageMonthly(%)

LatestRecovery(%)

Australasia

298

0.2

-97%

C. & S. America

404

0.3

-93%

0.4

Middle East

461

0.3

-87%

35 389

2.8

Asia

2 685

2

-86%

35 389

3.9

North America

2 555

1.9

-88%

AverageMonthly(%)

10 234

1.1

10 0331.1

3 824

Region29 552

3.3

Africa Air

5 462

4.1

-76%

158 208

17.5

Europe11 0398.3-92%633 28569.9

Africa Land110 750

82.9

-77%

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2*Monthly arrivals per region available in Appendix

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Which priority markets are driving overseas recovery?
● The three countries with the greatest inboundrecovery are Russia (-18%), United States (-86%)
and India (-86%). Notably, these three countries
also have had the lowest barriers to re-entry after
travel (Table 1, page 12)● The three countries with the highest numbers andmarket share of arrivals into South Africa are theUK, Germany and the United States. This was also
the case pre-COVID-19.
● Although the UK maintains its position as being thesource of the greatest number of arrivals into

● South Africa having 22% of the inbound market
share; the recovery of travellers from this market isstill 95% lower than in 2019.
● While Russia is showing the fastest recovery(currently -18%) the size of the market is thesmallest of priority markets (1% pre-covid), making
the effect of this recovery negligible.
● However, understanding what is driving this spurt intravel from Russia could enable similar effects fromother regions.

FIGURE 4: RECOVERY OF OVERSEAS TOURIST ARRIVALS PER COUNTRY RELATIVE TO SAMEMONTH IN 2019
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

18%)
95%)
93%)
92%)
94%)
94%)
86%)
90%)
98%)
91%)
92%)
86%)
93%)
95%)

Market share (%)

FIGURE 5: MARKET SHARE OF PRIORITY OVERSEAS ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY BEFORE
COVID-19 COMPARED TO DURING COVID-19
Pre-COVID-19
Market share
Average(%)
Monthly
1 604
0.9
2 364
1.3
3 074
1.6
5 167
2.8
6 018
3.2
6 457
3.4
7 424
4
8 066
4.3
9016
4.8
13 3077.1
17 096
9.1
28 933
15.4
35 25418.8
43 54823.2

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

RegionRussia
Japan
Spain
Italy
BrazilCanadaIndia
China
Australia
Netherl.
FranceUSA
GermanyUK

During COVID-19
Market share
Average(%)
Monthly
602
4.9
89
0.7
236
1.9
363
3
221
1.8
348
2.8
872
7.1
445
3.6
238
1.9
815
6.7
1 033
8.4
2 207
18
2 067
16.9
2 710
22.1

LatestRecovery
(%)
-18%
-95%
-93%
-92%
-94%
-94%
-86%
-90%
-98%
-91%
-92%
-86%
-93%
-95%

*Monthly arrivals per country available in Appendix

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Which priority markets are driving African recovery?
● The three African countries with the greatest
inbound recovery are Mozambique, Namibia
and Zambia.
● The three countries with the highest numbersof arrivals (market share) into South Africa are
Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho.

● Although Zimbabwe maintains its position having
the highest market share of inbound African
travellers; travel from Zimbabwe is still 83% lower
than in 2019.
● Mozambique has grown in inbound market share by
10%, now having the second highest market sharefrom the African countries.

FIGURE 6: RECOVERY OF AFRICAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PER COUNTRY RELATIVE TO
SAME MONTH IN 2019

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

56%)
57%)
59%)
71%)
71%)
79%)
80%)
83%)
93%)
89%)

FIGURE 7: MARKET SHARE OF PRIORITY AFRICAN ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY BEFORE
COVID-19 COMPARED TO DURING COVID-19

Market share (%)

Pre-COVID-19
Market share
AverageMonthly

(%)

2 666

0.4

4 213

RegionDuring COVID-19
Market share

LatestRecovery(%)

AverageMonthly

(%)

Kenya

460

0.4

-80

0.7

Nigeria

841

0.8

-71

13 466

2.1

Zambia

4 785

4.3

-59

16 134

2.5

Malawi

3 254

2.9

-71

17 494

2.7

Namibia

6 456

5.8

-57

58 314

9.1

Botswana

5 122

4.6

-89

76 61612

Eswatini

8 966

8.1

-93

114 811

17.9

Mozambiq.

30 68627.6-56

137 331

21.5

Lesotho

18 30916.5-79

199 118

31.1

Zimbabwe

32 14629-83

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2*Monthly arrivals per region available in Appendix

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Have traveller demographics shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic?
GENDERIn Southern African Development Community(SADC) regions, a trend of more male visitors thanfemale visitors persists. Recovery of travel bymales has also been greater when compared totravel by females.
In Overseas and Other African markets, little
difference exists between the recovery of travel
between males and females.

FIGURE 9: TOURIST ARRIVALS BY GENDER

L1

All Int.

Adj L3

L1

Ltd Int.

L2

L4

L3

L5

FIGURE 8: RECOVERY OF TOURISTARRIVALS BY GENDER COMPARED TO
2019

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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Have traveller demographics shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic?
AGE GROUPS:
Varying patterns are seen in the age distributionof travellers to South Africa’s from priority source
markets during the COVID-19 pandemic:●● In the SADC and Other African countries,
recovery of travel by middle aged groups (3564) has been greater than travel by younger(<35 years) and older (65+) age groups.

FIGURE 11: TOURIST ARRIVALS BY AGE
GROUP

L1

Adj L3All Int.

L1

Ltd Int.

L2

L4

L3

L5

FIGURE 10: RECOVERY OF TOURISTARRIVALS BY AGE GROUP RELATIVETO SAME MONTH IN 2019●

For the Overseas markets, that wastraditionally heavily dependent on travellers
45 years and older (blue components in the
figures below); little divergence in recovery oftravel between age group currently exists.
This could indicate that broad scale barriers
to travel are limiting travel of all ages fromthese regions.

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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TRACKING THE PANDEMIC IN PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETSUnderstanding the state of the COVID-19 pandemic
in South Africa’s prioritised source markets helps toinform an understanding of where travel is likely toresume.
In the coming months, key metrics to track will be
the combination of how much COVID-19 is still
spreading (measured by new cases per week) andprogress in vaccination rollouts.
Ideally, countries should have high levels ofvaccinations and low numbers of new cases per
week (top, left corner of Figure 12 below). This
would indicate relative progress in curbing the
COVID-19 pandemic in that country and potentialchange in consumer readiness to travel.
Currently, in key source markets:● North American key markets are situated wellwith low weekly case rates and advanced vaccine
rollout efforts. While the US vaccine rate has
slowed to some extent, Canada is surging past
hypothetical herd immunity.

● In Europe, most key source markets are making
positive progress in moving towards herd immunity
vaccination levels. After devastating peaks of cases
across the region in recent months, weekly newcaseloads have all but stabilised at lower risk levels
for most of the European Nations. Exclusions
however are the United Kingdom, Spain andNetherlands. Despite high vaccination levels, thesecountries are experiencing increasing weekly new
COVID-19 cases likely associated with the rapid
spread of the Delta variant3.
● Most African source markets have relatively lower
weekly new case rates with notable exceptions
being Botswana and Namibia. The latter having thehighest new case rate of all our source markets, thatis > 300.
● South Africa, currently within a third wave of
infections, is experiencing high weekly new caserates, > 200 new cases per 100 000 people per week.
While vaccine rollouts have been slow, recent drives
are pushing South Africa’s vaccination progress
northwards with the expectation that herd immunity
will be reached by the end of 20214.

The higher the number, the more people are vaccinated.
Assumption that 67% needed for herd immunity.

FIGURE 12: RACE AGAINST TIME: WEEKLY NEW COVID-19 CASES VS
NUMBER OF PEOPLE VACCINATED IN SA TOURISM’S PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS

Data source:
Our World In Data5,6
as at 11 July 2021

The further a country is to the right, the higher the number of weekly infections.
Numbers > 50 are globally considered high risk.

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TRACKING THE PANDEMIC IN PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS
A holistic view of the state of the COVID-19
pandemic in SA tourism’s 24 priority markets will
help identify which markets are likely to resume
travel.
In the detailed table (next page) we provide
information on:
1. COVID-19 METRICS (as at 11 July 2021)● Total cumulative COVID-19 cases per
million people:● Weekly new COVID-19 cases per 100 000
people○ As at 11 July 20215○ Brackets indicate the change since end
March 2021.
○ Rates >50 are considered high risk by
global standards.
○ Key: 0-50: Green, 50-100: pink, >100:
red
1. VACCINATION METRICS● Percent of the population with at least
one vaccine dose○ as at 11 July 20216.
○ Key: 0-33: red, 34-66: pink, 67-100:
Green● Daily vaccination rate per 100 people (%)○ As at 11 July 20216.
○ * Calculated as 7 day rolling average○ Key: 0-0.3 red, 0.4-0.7: pink, > 0.7:
Green

3. TRAVEL METRICS● Barriers to re-entry for each country after
travel to South Africa○ As at 25 June 2021.
○ B = Ban on travel out of the country fortourism,
Q = Quarantine at pre-authorized location,
I = Self isolation at location of choice,S = Screening for negative COVID-19 tests(the type and frequency of tests differs
between countries).
○ *** Several countries now have different
regulations for vaccinated travellers. See theappendix for summarized regulations of eachcountry○ Key: no regulations: Green, Screening or selfisolation: pink, Mandatory quarantine or Ban
on tourism travel: red● Travel prospect based on available metrics○ **** barriers related to airlift not currently
included in outlook but will affect realizationof travel prospect).
○ Key: VL = Very Low travel prospect: due to”Bans” and/or “Quarantine” regulations.
L = Low travel prospect: due to South
Africa’s weekly new case rate per 100 000
people > 200; “Isolation” and/or “Screening”
required; population with at least one doseof vaccination < 66 %.

● Estimated time to reach 75% of the
population vaccinated○ As at 11 July 20217.
○ Estimate herd immunity level○ ** Extrapolated using current 7 day
vaccination rate as at 11 July 20217.
○ Key: < 1 year: Green, 1-2 years: pink, >2 years: red

Data source: Our World In Data5,6

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TABLE 1: NEAR TERM TRAVEL OUTLOOK FROM PRIORITY MARKETS BASED ON COVID-19,
VACCINATION, AND BORDER REGULATION METRICS** Different rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated travellers

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TRACKING THE PANDEMIC PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS
Based on the metrics shown in the above table,
outlook for international travel in the mediumterm remains low:
● AFRICA: Travel from regional African countries
is still more likely than most other markets.
● EUROPE: The United Kingdom (UK) has thehighest weekly new case rate in Europe, being> 300. However, with the strong vaccination
drive in the UK, the country should reach herd
immunity by August 2021. This will have astrong impact on demand for resuming preCOVID-19 behaviour patterns, including travel.
The realization of this demand will, however,strongly depend on the removal of barriers toreentry. From 19 July 2021, vaccinatedtravellers from the UK who have visited Amberlist countries will no longer have to self-isolate
on return. South Africa remains on the UK red
list. Resumption of travel from the UK will
largely depend on South Africa being
downgraded from the Red to the Amber list.
Due to the progress of its vaccination rollout aswell as lower barriers to re-entry, travel from
Russia is more likely than the other European
markets.

In recent weeks both Spain and Netherlands haveremoved either advisories against travel or the needfor quarantine which could mean potential uptick intravel from these regions. However, since both regions
are currently under pressured of high rates of new
infections, realisation of travel potential is likely tobe slower until new daily cases subsides. The outlook
for travel in the rest of Europe remains low due to thepersistent strong barriers to re-entry after travel.
● AUSTRALASIA: While COVID-19 levels in key
Australasian source markets are still very low, thesecountries have been relatively slower in rolling-out
vaccinations and restrictions on re-entry after travel
to South Africa remain a large barrier to travel.
● AMERICAS: Travel from the United States is more
likely than most of the other overseas markets, due toa low rate of weekly new infections, a strong
progression in their vaccine roll out as well as low
barriers to re-entry. Prospects for travel from Canada
and Brazil remains very low due to higher barriers to
re-entry as well as high weekly new infections for thelatter country.

As countries begin to relax
barriers to re-entry after
travel, increased resumptionof travel is likely to occur.

FIGURE 13: NEAR-TERM TRAVEL PROSPECTS FROM SA TOURISM’S PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETSThe Road to Recovery Report - Volume 2 March 2021

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TRACKING
TOURISM SECTOR RECOVERYON THE GROUND

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DOMESTIC TOURISM
Domestic tourism remains key to the resilience ofthe tourism sector. Here, total overnight trips are
52% lower than pre-COVID-19 levels as opposed tothe 80% reduction seen in international tourism.
Domestic tourism resumed in late July 2020 and
was followed by a period of increased domestic
peaks during different months depending on thetrip purpose.
Since December, recovery of trips have mostly
stayed consistent at approximately 50% lower thanpre-covid levels.

FIGURE 14: DOMESTIC OVERNIGHT TRIPS
BY PURPOSE

Holiday trips, however, have shown a decrease to
42% lower than pre-COVID-19 levels, and trips for
Visiting Friends and Family (VFR) purposes havealso contracted to being 60% lower than preCOVID-19 levels.
Demand for day trips remains low. However, by
number, these trips contribute the most trips tothe domestic tourism landscape. Considering
constraints and mindsets regarding travel during
the COVID-19 pandemic, significant potential
exists to target growth in resuming day trips.

FIGURE 15: DOMESTIC DAY TRIPS

Data source: SA Tourism

FIGURE 16: RECOVERY OF DOMESTIC TRIPS BY TRIP TYPE RELATIVE TO SAMEMONTH IN 2019

( 42%)( 52%)( 59%)( 60%)( 84%)

Data source: SA Tourism

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TRANSPORT
Domestic airline travel, while still significantly
lower than 2019 levels, broke the 50% recovery
mark in February and have remained at a stablelevel since then. Regional and international travelis still hovering around 80% lower than 2019 levels
and has not seen much improvement since thesecond quarter.

Travel by light motor vehicle, recorded as the numberof vehicles moving through toll gates across thecountry, has levelled out at slightly lower than 2019
volumes but has remained reasonably consistent atthese levels since December.

FIGURE 17: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN AIR TRAVELRELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

( 38%)( 73%)( 82%)

Data source: ACSA8FIGURE 18: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ROAD TRAVELRELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

+ 8%
- 2%
- 6%
- 11%

( 6%)

( 8%)
( 11%)(

2%)

Data source: SANRALThe Road to Recovery Report - Volume 2 March 2021

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ACCOMMODATION
Accommodation trends provide an indication of thelevel of engagement with tourism services. Total
industry income dipped around February but has
since recovered back to December 2020 levels ataround 60% lower than 2019. Caravan & camping
continues to show the most improvement and isapproaching 2019 levels, with April occupancy rates
level with April 2019.

Occupancy rates have improved across the industry
over the past 3 months, with guest houses and farms
having occupancy rates 22% lower than 2019. Hotels
however, still have an occupancy rate 38% lower
than in 2019 and have continued to charge rates
around 15% lower than 2019 resulting in a sustained
reduction of income levels.

Change inmonthly income (%)

FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ACCOMMODATION INCOME, AVERAGE DAILYRATE AND OCCUPANCY RELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

(
(
(
(
(

8%)
36%)
38%)
52%)
57%)

(
(
(
(
(

7%)
2%)
15%)
17%)
24%)

(
(
(
(
(

0%)
22%)
38%)
44%)
45%)

- 8%

Change inaverage daily rate (%)

- 36%
- 38%

Change inoccupancy (%)

- 2%
- 15%
- 17%
- 24%

Data source: Stats SA Tourist Accommodation9

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SPEND
Spend indicators can signal consumers’ economic
readiness to return to pre-COVID-19 spending
behaviours. Retail spending levels have largely
recovered and have more or less mirrored inflation
for the last three months.

However, spending in the food and hospitality
sector, is still severely impacted. While the industry
saw an uptick in March and April, with fast foodshowing positive growth in April compared to 2019
levels, restaurants and catering services continue toshow depressed spending likely due to ongoing
restrictions placed on these industries.

FIGURE 20: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL AND FOOD SPEND RELATIVE TO SAMEMONTH IN 2019

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

19%)
14%)
12%)
9%)
5%)
4%)
1%)
16%)

Data source: Stats SA
Retail tradesales10
Data source:
Stats SA
Retail trade sales 10( 16%)( 8%)( 12%)( 46%)

Data source: Stats SA
Food and Beverages11

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OUTLOOK
On 27 June 2021, President Cyril Ramaphosaannounced the return of the country to an adjusted
level 4 lockdown in an attempt to curb the third waveof COVID-19 in South Africa. Two weeks later most ofthese restrictions were extended for another two
weeks with the third wave having reached its peak inGauteng, but likely yet to peak in other major
provinces.
Attempting to contain the third wave of the virus
while recovering the country’s economy remains afine balancing act. With the benefit of 15 months ofdata, we can however reasonably estimate the impact
on the country’s domestic tourism sector:

Food Spending● Limitations on sit-down eating over the adjusted
level 4 lockdown period are expected to have a
temporary negative impact on recovery in therestaurant industry.
● Fast food spending will likely continue its
upward trajectory as consumers substitute somerestaurant spending, but will not completely
offset the decline.
● The positive trajectory of both fast food and sitdown eating is expected to resume as the
lockdown level is relaxed in line with a decline
in infections.

Transport● Similar to when travel restrictions were imposed in
December 2020 / January 2021, we can expect a
temporary dip in domestic air travel and lightvehicle road travel as a result of restrictions aswell as infection safety concerns.
● The positive trajectory of all domestic travel ishowever expected to continue as the third wave
subsides, with pent-up demand from the lockdown
period even accelerating the improvement in the
short term.
Accommodation● With hotels, resorts and guest houses able tooperate at 50% capacity during the first two weeks
of adjusted level 4 and thereafter fully operational
we do not anticipate a significant impact on
accommodation recovery, especially considering
reasonably flat recovery to date.

The global outlook for a return to 2019’s levels oftravel for tourism remains uncertain, with a wide
variety of factors influencing government travel
policies and consumer behaviour. Evidence
however indicates that an increase in vaccinationlevels and a reduction in travel and re-entry
barriers result in an increased demand for travel.
As more countries approach herd immunity levels
travel restrictions can be expected to be alleviatedand hence travel prospects should improve.
As a sector and a community we will continue
working to seize the gap to re-imagine andredefine the role that domestic and regional
tourism can play in the sector’s recovery.
Continued adherence to the strictest, world-classhealth protocols, and the promotion of South
Africa’s diverse and affordable destinations todomestic and regional travelers will remainpriorities for the industry.

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REFERENCES
1

https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-recovery-tracker
http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0351&SCH=72954
3 https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0402-travel-guidance-vaccinated-people.html
4 https://www.nicd.ac.za/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-strategy-faq/
5 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
6 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
7 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
8 https://www.airports.co.za/airports/or-tambo-international-airport/statistics/passenger (+ Cape Town & Durban
International airports)
9 http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6410&SCH=72825
10
http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6242.1&SCH=72823
11
http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6420&SCH=72827
2

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APPENDIX
Monthly international arrivals per region
FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS INTO SOUTH AFRICA
DURING COVID-19 AFTER BORDER REOPENING

FIGURE 22: NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS INTO SOUTH AFRICA
DURING COVID-19 AFTER BORDER REOPENING (OTHER THAN AFRICA LAND)

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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Monthly international arrivals per international overseas priority markets

Jan 21

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20FIGURE 22: ARRIVALS FROM PRIORITY OVERSEAS MARKETS IN 2020/2021 RELATIVE TO
SAME MONTH IN 2019

Pre-COVID-19

Jan 21

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20Jan 21

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20During COVID-19

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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Monthly international arrivals per international overseas priority
markets

Jan 20

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20Jan 20

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20FIGURE 23: ARRIVALS FROM PRIORITY AFRICAN MARKETS IN 2020/2021 RELATIVE TO
SAME MONTH IN 2019

Pre-COVID-19

Jan 20

Oct 20Jul 20

Apr 20Jan 20During COVID-19

Data source: StatsSA Tourism & Migration2

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THE ROAD TO RECOVERY REPORT: VOLUME 3 JUNE 2021
SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISMREGULATIONSTABLE 2: REGULATIONS OF RE-ENTRY FOR CITIZENS OF PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS
Disclaimer: Information on travel restrictions has been collated from multiple sources. Every effort has been made toprovide information that is factual and up to date. However, with frequently changing regulations we can not guarantee
error-free information

Country

Re-entry regulations after travel to South Africa

AUSTRALASIA
India

All persons must submit an online health declaration form and proof of a negative RT-PCR result for
COVID-19 issued no more than 72 hours prior to departure using the "Air Suvidha" system. All persons onflights originating from South Africa, must self-isolate for 7 days, undergo an additional test for COVID-19
and monitor their health status for a further 7 days.

Japan

All travelers including Japanese nationals have to submit a certificate of negative test result conductedwithin 72 hours prior to departing from the country/region where travelers stay when entering Japan.
Those who do not submit a certificate of negative test result will be denied entry into Japan inaccordance with the Quarantine Act.
All nationals who have been in countries with variants of concern (including South Africa) within 14 days
prior to their application for landing will undergo PCR tests, will be requested to undergo 10 days ofquarantine at a designated location and undergo testing on 3rd, 6th and 10th days following arrival. Those
who test negative must then proceed to their home ro to another designated location where they must
self isolate for a further 14 days. travellers must also pledge not to use public transport.

Australia

If you are an Australian citizen or a permanent resident you cannot leave Australia due to
COVID-19 restrictions unless you have an exemption. Please see regulations for valid
exemptions which include travel as a part of response to COVID-19 outbreak, travel is forbusiness/employer, travelling to receive urgent medical treatment not available in Australia,
travelling on compelling or compassionate grounds or your travel is in the national interest.

China

All persons must provide proof of negative results for COVID-19 using both a nucleic acid test and aserological test for IgM antibodies – performed no more than 48 hours prior to departure. All persons must
undergo a 14-day quarantine at a designated location upon arrival. Persons entering via Shanghai canundergo a 7-day quarantine in a designated location followed by 7 days of self-isolation at home.

AMERICAS
UnitedStatesPrior to boarding a flight to the United States,all passengers ( > 2yrs old) must provide proof of a negative
COVID-19 viral test taken within 3 days of travel or documentation from a licensed health care provider
confirming recovery from COVID-19 in the 90 days preceding travel. Unvaccinated travellers arerecommended to self isolate for 7 days after travel.

BrazilCitizens and legal residents of Brazil who have traveled through South Africa or UK within the past 14 days
will be permitted to return but must complete a two-week quarantine on arrival. All persons must provide
proof of a negative COVID-19 PCR test issued no more than 72 hours prior to departure for Brazil

CanadaAdvisory against non-essential travel.
All travellers must register on ArriveCan, provide proof of a negative COVID-19 molecular test up to 72
hours before departure, take a COVID-19 test on arrival, mandatory 3-night quarantine at a government
authorised hotel (own cost) await test results. Followed by the remainder of a total 14-day quarantinewith a COVID-19 test on day 8.
Exemptions for fully vaccinated travellers who meet specific conditions may be exempt from quarantine,
hotel stopover (for air travellers), day-8 testing requirement. Final determination of whether or not you
qualify for the exemption is made by a government representative at the border.

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TABLE 2 CONT. : REGULATIONS OF RE-ENTRY FOR CITIZENS OF PRIORITY SOURCE
MARKETSCountry

Re-entry regulations after travel to South Africa

EUROPE
Netherlands

Travellers must be able to show a negative PCR test based on samples collected no more than 72 hours
before arrival in the Netherlands or a negative antigen test based on a sample collected no more than 48
hours before arrival in Netherlands. Travellers must also self-quarantine for 10 days upon arrival with aretest option on day 5 which could shorten required isolation period.

FranceNo travel to and South Africa (and a many other countries) unless for pressing grounds. A travel
certificate attesting to imperative reason for entering the country must be submitted. A negative COVID19 PCR test less than 72h old is required on entry if pressing grounds reason is approved. If you are
vaccinated you must pledge to self isolate for 7 days. If you are not vaccinated you will be subject to a
mandatory 10-day quarantine supervised by security forces.

Spain

Travellers arriving from South Africa must provide a Negative COVID-19 RT – PCR or TMA test result,taken at most 48 hours before arrival, or a Vaccination certificate, the last dose of the approved vaccine
must have been received at least 14 days before travel or COVID-19 recovery certificate issued at least
11 days after the positive result. Sample must have been taken no more than 180 days before arrival.

Italy

Travel for tourism is not permitted. Travel to List E countries (including South Africa) is only allowed forspecific reasons including work, health, study, urgency or return to Italy. If arriving from list E countries
you must provide a negative molecular or antigenic swab within 72 hours of travel, complete a digital
Passenger Location Form, undergo fiduciary isolation and health surveillance for 10 days. Undergo an
additional molecular or antigenic swab at the end of the 10 day isolation period and are required totravel to desired destination only via private transport.

UnitedKingdom

Everyone allowed to enter England who has been in a red list country in the 10 days before they arrive
must have proof of a negative COVID-19 test to travel to England from abroad, quarantine for 10 fulldays in a managed quarantine hotel (the day you arrive in England counts as day 0), take a coronavirus(COVID-19) test on or before day 2 and on or after day 8 of quarantining. From 19 July 2021, fully
vaccinated people returning to England from amber list countries will not need to quarantine.

Germany

A transport ban and restrictions exist for entry into Germany from areas of variants of concern. Travelfrom high risk countries German citizens and other specified exceptions arriving from countries withhigh-risk virus variants (including South Africa) are allowed to return to Germany but must fill in an entry
application, provide a negative COVID-19 test prior to departure and upon entry and be subject to a 14day self-isolation Self isolation, can be shortened by submitting a certificate of recovery, a certificate ofvaccination or proof of a negative test result.

RussiaAll passengers must present a negative COVID-19 test dated less than 72 hours before travel. Russian
nationals are required to submit an online registration from, undergo a PCR test within 72 hours ofarrival in Russia and self isolate while awaiting their test results, and report results to national
authorities.
This policy does not apply to persons who carry electronic proof they have completed a full vaccination
regimen using a COVID-19 vaccine recognized by Russian authorities or to persons who carry proof they
have fully recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection no more than 6 months prior to their scheduledarrival in Russia

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TABLE 2 CONT. : REGULATIONS OF RE-ENTRY FOR CITIZENS OF PRIORITY SOURCE
MARKETSAFRICA
Namibia

All non-Namibian travellers must provide a negative COVID-19 PCR test result that is not older than 7days (168) hours old at Port of Entry. Namibian citizens may enter Namibia with or without any result.
In the absence of any result, they will be subjected to a 7-day quarantine and testing at own cost.

Botswana

All travellers need to provide proof of a negative COVID-19 PCR test no more than 72 hours old before
arrival and must also take an COVID-19 antigen test at the port of entry. If no negative test result isprovided, if the test at the border is positive, or if any COVID-19 symptoms are present, travellers may
be refused entry or be required to undergo 14 days isolation or quarantine at own expense.

Eswatini

Travellers into the Kingdom of Eswatini must provide a negative PCR COVID-19 test certificate not older
than 72 hours. Returning residents who fail to produce a negative PCR COVID-19 certificate will be
subject to the test at the point of entry and may be required to undergo quarantine not exceeding 14
days or isolation.

LesothoTravellers into Lesotho must provide a negative PCR COVID-19 test certificate issued within 72 hours
before travelling and upon arrival at the port of entry. Citizens who fail to produce a negative PCR
COVID-19 certificate will be subject to a rapid antigen test

ZambiaReturning residents must have proof that they have tested negative for COVID-19 in the 72 hours before
their arrival. All travellers coming from a country designated ‘high risk’ (including South Africa) musttake a COVID-19 test on arrival even if they have a negative PCR test. Travelers who transit throughhigh risk countries are not considered high risk if the transit time is less than 24 hours.
If your body temperature is equal to, or above 38.0, or you have a COVID-19 related symptom (a cough,shortness of breath, a headache, loss of taste or smell, or a sore throat), you will be tested and taken
to either your home or a government facility for treatment and quarantine until your tests results are
known.

Zimbabwe

Travelers must carry proof of a negative result for COVID-19 issued no more than 48 hours prior to
departure using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Persons who lack such proof or who are
exhibiting symptoms consistent with COVID-19 must undergo testing and a 10-day quarantine in a
dedicated facility. Upon arrival, all persons must self-isolate for 10-days at their residence or a suitablelocation. All persons arriving from locations with confirmed transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha andDelta variants must, at their own expense, undergo testing for COVID-19 on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 10th
day following their arrival.

Mozambique

All passengers will need proof of a negative COVID-19 test issued in their country of departure issued no
more than 72 hours prior travel to enter Mozambique. Children under 11 years old are exempt from therequirement to present a COVID-19 PCR test.

Kenya

All passengers must provide a negative COVID-19 PCR certificate taken no more than 96 hours before
departure. Diplomatic passport holders’ negative PCR test must be done within 7 days before arrival. All
travellers will have to complete an online registration form before departure and submit to medical
screening on arrival in Kenya. Travellers must comply with the need to undergo quarantine if necessary.

Malawi

As of 15 June 2021, only citizens and approved non citizens are able to enter Malawi. All passengers
must submit a health traveller declaration form and must provide a negative COVID-19 PCR test
certificate issued no more than 72 hours prior to arrival.

Nigeria

Passengers must test negative by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from the country of exit 3 days (72hours) before departure. Tests done more than 72 hours before departure are not valid
Prior to boarding, passengers are requested to upload their COVID-19 PCR NEGATIVE results on to thenational payment portal and have an electronic or hard copy for presentation at the airport
All intending passengers are required to register via – http://nitp.ncdc.gov.ng and pay for a repeat(second) PCR test to be done upon arrival in Nigeria. On arrival, passengers must proceed on a 7-day
self-isolation as per protocol and present at the designated sample collection sites on the 7th day ofarrival. Passengers who test negative after 7 days will end self- isolation on the 8th day

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SOURCES OF INFORMATION FOR TABLE 2: REGULATIONS OF RE-ENTRY FOR CITIZENS OF
PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS
Disclaimer: Information on travel restrictions has been collated from multiple sources. Every effort has been made toprovide information that is factual and up to date. However, with frequently changing regulations we can not guarantee
error-free information
Country

Source of travel restriction information

Australia:

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia

Botswana:

https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/a-z-list-of-countries/botswana/

Brazil:https://www.trip.com/travel-restrictions-covid-19/

Canada:https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/south-africa

China:

https://www.trip.com/travel-restrictions-covid-19/

Eswatini:

https://www.thekingdomofeswatini.com/travel-advice/France:https://www.gouvernement.fr/en/coronavirus-covid-19

Germany:

https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/faqs/EN/topics/civil-protection/coronavirus/coronavirusfaqs.html#doc13797140bodyText3

India:

https://www.trip.com/travel-restrictions-covid-19/

Italy:

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italia
no&id=5412&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto&tab=5Japan:

https://www.japan.travel/en/coronavirus/

Kenya:

https://www.kenyanevisa.com/entry-restrictions/

Lesotho:https://www.gov.ls/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/gazette1.pdf

Malawi:https://www.malawitourism.com/travel-advice/

Mozambique:https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/a-z-list-of-countries/mozambique/

Namibia:

https://namibiatourism.com.na/page/covid-19-updates

Netherlands:

https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-thenetherlands/travel-and-holidays

Nigeria:

https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/advisory/

Russia:https://www.trip.com/travel-restrictions-covid-19/

Spain:

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/spain-travel-covid-19/index.html

UnitedKingdom:https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

United States: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/covid-19-information.html
Zambia:https://travelbans.org/africa/zambia/

Zimbabwe:https://www.trip.com/travel-restrictions-covid-19/

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