MARKET ECONOMICS

Weekly Economic Report
2024 年 9 月 19 日号 （No.1069-s）
河野 龍太郎
チーフエコノミスト
加藤 あずさシニアエコノミスト
白石 洋
シニアエコノミスト
井川 雄亮
マーケット・ストラテ
ジスト

産業革命の効果が現れるには 100 年以上かかる「短い 20 世紀」と「長い 20 世紀」
河野 龍太郎
最近、とても長い Weekly Economic Report が 3 度も続いたことと、今週の金曜日
は（政策修正の可能性は限りなくゼロに近いと思われますが）金融政策決定会合の結果公表がありますので、今回は短めに。と言っても、テーマは「ながーい 20世紀」についてのお話です。
歴史にご興味ある方なら、著名な歴史学者である故エリック・ボブズボームが提唱した『短い 20 世紀（The Short Twentieth Century）』という言葉をお聞きになったことがあるかもしれません。1914 年に始まった第一次世界大戦をきっかけに、
1917 年のロシアでの 2 度の革命でソヴィエト連邦が誕生、その後、1989 年の「ベルリンの壁」崩壊を経て、1991 年にソ連は崩壊。共産圏の誕生と崩壊のあった 70
年あまりを「短い 20 世紀」と呼んだ訳です。
今回、ご紹介する著名な経済史家のブラッドフォード・デロングは、1870 年から2010 年までの高い成長が続いた 140 年間を「長い 20 世紀」と呼んでいます。高い
成長の開始は 1870 年頃で、それは 1970 年代には黄昏を迎えますが、完全に終わるのは、グローバル金融危機がきっかけで、2010 年までとしています。
18 世紀後半の産業革命開始から高い成長が始まったと誤解する人も多いのですが、成長が高まったのは 1820 年代頃以降で、幅広い人々に恩恵が広がり、高い成長となったのは 1870 年以降です。産業革命の恩恵が現れたのが「長い 20 世紀」だった、という訳です。1990 年代後半からの IT デジタル革命でも、2010 年代後半からの AI 革命でも、便利になったとはいえ、一向にマクロ経済的な果実は我々に訪れませんが、それは、まだまだ先ということなのでしょうか。以下は、2024 年 9月 14 日号の週刊東洋経済への寄稿を修正・加筆したものです。
･･････････『20 世紀経済史 ユートピアへの緩慢な歩み』ブラッドフォード・デロング著
村井章子訳 日経 BP
本書は、米国の経済史の第一人者が 20 世紀の世界経済を論じた大著である。1870
年から 2010 年までを成長の「長い 20 世紀」として描く。

Please refer to important information at the end of the report.
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産業革命は 18 世紀後半に始まったが、当初 100 年は恩恵が一部に集中し労働者は食うや食わずだった。1870 年ごろになると、技術革新の加速によって、人類がマルサスの制約から抜け出す。転機となったのは、グローバル化、産業研究所、近代的企業の 3 点セットの出現だった。
それまでの発明は偶然が多く、それっきりというパターンも少なくなかったが、発明を目的に、欧米の大企業は産業研究所を設立し、そこで新たに発明した工業製品を大量生産し、大量輸送によって国内外で大量に販売したのである。一方、その裏側では、新興国の家内制手工業の崩壊（製造業の空洞化）が進んだ。
サブタイトルが示す通り、すべての人々が満たされる「ユートピア」への歩みは
緩慢で、未だに到達していない。著者はその「前進」と「停滞」を、20 世紀を代表する 2 人の経済思想家を軸に描く。一人は、新自由主義の元祖フリードリヒ・
ハイエクであり、もう一人は、雇用保障や適正な賃金、共同体を重視したカー
ル・ポランニーである。本書は市場経済を重視しつつも、社会の市場化を企図した新自由主義には手厳しい。
1870 年ごろに始まった欧米の第 1 の黄金期は、第一次世界大戦と大恐慌で中断したが、米国のニューディール政策を機に、第 2 の黄金期が訪れる。米国では戦間期のルーズベルト大統領のもと、社会保障制度が整備され、労働組合も強化された。社会包摂の中での技術革新が人々を豊かにした。
欧州の黄金期は第二次世界大戦後に始まるが、興味深いのは、戦後の高成長は、マーシャルプランによる米国からの復興支援がなければありえず、西欧がアルゼ
ンチンのように没落した可能性があるという指摘だ。米ソの対立がなければ、日本への復興支援も限られ、同様のリスクがあったのだろう。
戦後のポランニー的な社会民主路線は、1970 年代の高成長終焉と共に否定され始め、80 年代以降はハイエク的な新自由主義が世界を席巻する。果たして効果はあったのか。90 年代後半以降、確かにデジタル革命で経済成長は回復したが、その恩恵はやはり一部の人に集中した。ただ、グローバル経済で見れば、この市場化路線は同時に、それまで低成長に喘いでいた中国など一部の新興国を離陸させたのも事実である。
2000 年代末のグローバル金融危機を機に成長は失われ、「長い 20 世紀」がついに終わる。米経済はすでに復活したと論じられることも多いが、社会分断は広がり
ユートピアは遠のいたままだ。危機時にルーズベルト流の包摂的政策を開始すれば第 3 の黄金期になりえた、との言葉が印象的だが、筆者も同感だ。いや、各国ともあれだけの財政資金を使うことが可能だったのだから、コロナ危機時に、より包摂的な社会政策に転換するというのも不可能ではなかったはずだ。
昨今、AI が世界経済を牽引するという楽観論も多い。だがダロン・アセモグルらの近著と同様、技術革新だけでは普通の人々は豊かになれないという主張は傾聴に値する。

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無登録格付に関する説明書
格付会社に対しては、市場の公正性・透明性の確保の観点から、金融商品取引法に基づく信用格付業者の登録制が導入されております。
これに伴い、金融商品取引業者等は、無登録格付業者が付与した格付を利用して勧誘を行う場合には、金融商品取引法により、無登録格付である旨及び登録の意義等を顧客に告げなければならないこととされております。
登録の意義について登録を受けた信用格付業者は、①誠実義務、②利益相反防止・格付プロセスの公正性確保等の業務管理体制の整備義務、③格付対象の証券を保有している場合の格付付与の禁止、④格付方針等の作成及び公表・説明書類の公衆縦覧等の情報開示義務等の規制を受けるとともに、報告徴求・立入検査、業務改善命令等の金融庁の監督を受けることとなりますが、無登録格付業者は、これらの規制・監督を受けておりません。
格付会社グループの呼称等について
ムーディーズ・インベスターズ・サービス格付グループの呼称：ムーディーズ・インベスターズ・サービス（以下「ムーディーズ」と称します。）
グループ内の信用格付業者の名称及び登録番号： ムーディーズ・ジャパン株式会社（金融庁長官(格付)第 2 号）
S&P グローバル・レーティング格付グループの呼称： S&P グローバル・レーティング（以下「S&P」と称します。）
グループ内の信用格付業者の名称及び登録番号：S&P グローバル・レーティング・ジャパン株式会社（金融庁長官(格付)第 5 号）
フィッチ・レーティングス格付会社の呼称： フィッチ・レーティングス（以下「フィッチ」と称します。）
グループ内の信用格付業者の名称及び登録番号： フィッチ・レーティングス・ジャパン株式会社（金融庁長官（格付）第７号）
信用格付を付与するために用いる方針及び方法の概要に関する情報の入手方法について
ムーディーズ・ジャパン株式会社のウェブサイト（https://ratings.moodys.com/japan/ratings-news）の「規制関連」のタブ下にある「開示」をクリックした後に表示されるページの「無登録格付説明関連」の欄に掲載されております。
S&P グローバル・レーティング・ジャパン株式会社のホームページ（http://www.spglobal.co.jp/ratings）の「ﾗｲﾌﾞﾗﾘ・規制関連」の「無登録格付け情報」（http://www.spglobal.co.jp/unregistered）に掲載されております。
フィッチ・レーディングス・ジャパン株式会社のホームページ（http://www.fitchratings.co.jp/web/）の「規制関連」セクションにある「格付方針等の概要」に掲載されております。
信用格付の前提、意義及び限界について
ムーディーズ：ムーディーズの信用格付は、事業体、与信契約、債務又は債務類似証券の将来の相対的信用リスクについての、現時点の意見です。ムーディーズは、信用リスクを、事業体が契約上・財務上の義務を期日に履行できないリスク及びデフォルト事由が発生した場合に見込まれるあらゆる種類の財産的損失と定義しています。信用格付は、流動性リスク、市場リスク、価格変動性及びその他のリスクについて言及するものではありません。また、信用格付は、投資又は財務に関する助言を構成するものではなく、特定の証券の購入、売却、又は保有を推奨するものではありません。ムーディーズは、いかなる形式又は方法によっても、これらの格付若しくはその他の意見又は情報の正確性、適時性、完全性、商品性及び特定の目的への適合性について、明示的、黙示的を問わず、いかなる保証も行っていません。
ムーディーズは、信用格付に関する信用評価を、発行体から取得した情報、公表情報を基礎として行っております。ムーディーズは、これらの情報が十分な品質を有し、またその情報源がムーディーズにとって信頼できると考えられるものであることを確保するため、全ての必要な措置を講じています。しかし、ムーディーズは監査を行う者ではなく、格付の過程で受領した情報の正確性及び有効性について常に独自の検証を行うことはできません。
S&P：S&P の信用格付は、発行体または特定の債務の将来の信用力に関する現時点における意見であり、発行体または特定の債務が債
務不履行に陥る確率を示した指標ではなく、信用力を保証するものでもありません。また、信用格付は、証券の購入、売却または保有を推奨するものでなく、債務の市場流動性や流通市場での価格を示すものでもありません。信用格付は、業績や外部環境の変化、裏付け資産のパフォーマンスやカウンターパーティの信用力変化など、さまざまな要因により変動する可能性があります。
S&P は、信頼しうると判断した情報源から提供された情報を利用して格付分析を行っており、格付意見に達することができるだけの十分な品質および量の情報が備わっていると考えられる場合にのみ信用格付を付与します。しかしながら、S&P は、発行体やその他の第三者から提供された情報について、監査、デューデリジェンスまたは独自の検証を行っておらず、また、格付付与に利用した情報や、かかる情報の利用により得られた結果の正確性、完全性、適時性を保証するものではありません。さらに、信用格付によっては、利用可能なヒストリカ
ルデータが限定的であることに起因する潜在的なリスクが存在する場合もあることに留意する必要があります。
フィッチ：フィッチの格付は、所定の格付基準・手法に基づく意見です。格付はそれ自体が事実を表すものではなく、正確又は不正確であると表現し得ません。信用格付は、信用リスク以外のリスクを直接の対象とはせず、格付対象証券の市場価格の妥当性又は市場流動性について意見を述べるものではありません。格付はリスクの相対的評価であるため、同一カテゴリーの格付が付与されたとしても、リスクの微妙な差異は必ずしも十分に反映されない場合もあります。信用格付はデフォルトする蓋然性の相対的序列に関する意見であり、特定のデフォルト確率を予測する指標ではありません。フィッチは、格付の付与・維持において、発行体等信頼に足ると判断する情報源から入手する事実情報に依拠しており、所定の格付方法に則り、かかる情報に関する調査及び当該証券について又は当該法域において利用できる
場合は独立した情報源による検証を、合理的な範囲で行いますが、格付に関して依拠する全情報又はその使用結果に対する正確性、完全性、適時性が保証されるものではありません。ある情報が虚偽又は不当表示を含むことが判明した場合、当該情報に関連した格付は適切でない場合があります。また、格付は、現時点の事実の検証にもかかわらず、格付付与又は据置時に予想されない将来の事象や状況に影響されることがあります。信用格付の前提、意義及び限界の詳細にわたる説明については、フィッチの日本語ウェブサイト上の「格付及びその他の形態の意見に関する定義」をご参照ください。
この情報は、当社が信頼できると考えられる情報源から作成しておりますが、その正確性・完全性を当社が保証するものではありません。
詳しくは上記それぞれの会社のホームページをご覧ください。

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is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein or in the document, or solicitation of an offer to buy
securities described herein or in the document, in Canada, the U.S. or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment, tax, accounting orother advice. Transactions involving the product(s) described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactions may be highly
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involving any underlying reference obligation or entity and risk of illiquidity. In certain transactions, counterparties may lose their entire investment or incur an unlimitedloss.
The information relating to performance contained in this document is illustrative and no assurance is given that any indicated returns, performance or results will beachieved. Moreover, past performance is not indicative of future results. Information herein or in the document is believed reliable but BNPP and its affiliates do not
warrant or guarantee its completeness or accuracy. All information, terms and pricing set forth herein or in the document reflect our judgment at the date and time
hereof and are subject to change without notice. In the event that we were to enter into a transaction with you, we will do so as principal (and not as agent or in any
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in which case, you should refer to the prospectus or offering document relating to the above potential transaction which includes important information, including risk
factors that relate to an investment in the product(s) described herein or in the document.
Prior to transacting, you should ensure that you fully understand (either on your own or through the use of independent expert advisors) the terms of the transaction
and any legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to them. You should also consult with independent advisors and consultants (including, without limitation,legal counsel) to determine whether entering into any securities transactions contemplated herein or in the document would be contrary to local laws. Unless theinformation contained herein or document/communication to which this notice relates is made publicly available by BNPP, it is provided to you on a strictly confidential
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES by producers and disseminators of investment recommendations for the purposes of the Market Abuse Regulation:
Although the disclosures provided herein or in the document have been prepared on the basis of information we believe to be accurate, we do not guarantee theaccuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any such disclosures. The disclosures provided herein or in the document have been prepared in good faith and are
based on internal calculations, which may include, without limitation, rounding and approximations.
BNPP and/or its affiliates may be a market maker or liquidity provider in financial instruments of the issuer mentioned in the recommendation.
BNPP and/or its affiliates may provide such services as described in Sections A and B of Annex I of MiFID II (Directive 2014/65/EU), to the Issuer to which thisinvestment recommendation relates. However, BNPP is unable to disclose specific relationships/agreements due to client confidentiality obligations.
Section A and B services include A. Investment services and activities: (1) Reception and transmission of orders in relation to one or more financial instruments; (2)Execution of orders on behalf of clients; (3) Dealing on own account; (4) Portfolio management; (5) Investment advice; (6) Underwriting of financial instruments and/or
placing of financial instruments on a firm commitment basis; (7) Placing of financial instruments without a firm commitment basis; (8) Operation of an MTF; and (9)Operation of an OTF. B. Ancillary services: (1) Safekeeping and administration of financial instruments for the account of clients, including custodianship and related
services such as cash/collateral management and excluding maintaining securities accounts at the top tier level; (2) Granting credits or loans to an investor to allow
him to carry out a transaction in one or more financial instruments, where the firm granting the credit or loan is involved in the transaction; (3) Advice to undertakings
on capital structure, industrial strategy and related matters and advice and services relating to mergers and the purchase of undertakings; (4) Foreign exchange
services where these are connected to the provision of investment services; (5) Investment research and financial analysis or other forms of general recommendation
relating to transactions in financial instruments; (6) Services related to underwriting; and (7) Investment services and activities as well as ancillary services of the typeincluded under Section A or B of Annex 1 related to the underlying of the derivatives included under points (5), (6), (7) and (10) of Section C (detailing the MiFID II
Financial Instruments) where these are connected to the provision of investment or ancillary services.
BNPP and/or its affiliates do not, as a matter of policy, permit pre-arrangements with issuers to produce recommendations. BNPP and/or its affiliates as a matter ofpolicy do not permit issuers to review or see unpublished recommendations. BNPP and/or its affiliates acknowledge the importance of conflicts of interest prevention
and have established robust policies and procedures and maintain effective organisational structure to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest that could impair theobjectivity of this recommendation including, but not limited to, information barriers, personal account dealing restrictions and management of inside information.
BNPP and/or its affiliates understand the importance of protecting confidential information and maintain a “need to know” approach when dealing with any confidential
information. Information barriers are a key arrangement we have in place in this regard. Such arrangements, along with embedded policies and procedures, providethat information held in the course of carrying on one part of its business to be withheld from and not to be used in the course of carrying on another part of its business.
It is a way of managing conflicts of interest whereby the business of the bank is separated by physical and non-physical information barriers. The Control Roommanages this information flow between different areas of the bank where confidential information including inside information and proprietary information is safeguarded.
There is also a conflict clearance process before getting involved in a deal or transaction.
In addition, there is a mitigation measure to manage conflicts of interest for each transaction with controls put in place to restrict the information flow, involvement of
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Policy, along with several policies that the firm has in place to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest.
The remuneration of the individual producer of the investment recommendation may be linked to trading or any other fees in relation to their global business line
received by BNPP and/or affiliates.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES by disseminators of investment recommendations for the purposes of the Market Abuse Regulation:
Where relevant, the BNPP disseminator of the investment recommendation is identified in the document/communication including information regarding the relevant
competent authorities which regulate the disseminator. The name of the individual producer within BNPP or an affiliate and the legal entity the individual producer isassociated with is identified where relevant, in the document/communication. The date and time of the first dissemination of this investment recommendation by BNPP
or an affiliate is addressed where relevant, in the document/communication. Where this investment recommendation is communicated by Bloomberg chat or by email
by an individual within BNPP or an affiliate, the date and time of the dissemination by the relevant individual is contained, where relevant, in the communication by that
individual disseminator.

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Weekly Japanese Economic Report5

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The disseminator and producer of the investment recommendations are part of the same group, i.e. the BNPP group. The relevant Market Abuse Regulation disclosuresrequired to be made by producers and disseminators of investment recommendations are provided by the producer for and on behalf of the BNPP Group legal entities
disseminating those recommendations and the same disclosures also apply to the disseminator.
If an investment recommendation is disseminated by an individual within BNPP or an affiliate via Bloomberg chat or email, the disseminator’s job title is available intheir Bloomberg profile or bio. If an investment recommendation is disseminated by an individual within BNPP or an affiliate via email, the individual disseminator’s job
title is available in their email signature.
For further details on the basis of recommendation specific disclosures available at this link (e.g. valuations or methodologies, and the underlying assumptions, used
to evaluate financial instruments or issuers, interests or conflicts that could impair objectivity recommendations or to 12 month history of recommendations history) areavailable at MARKETS 360TM Portal. If you are unable to access the website please contact your BNPP representative for a copy of this document.

19 September 2024
Weekly Japanese Economic Report6

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