STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

ii

Acknowledgments
The report is the result of a collaboration between the government of Afghanistan and theWorld Bank and prepared by the GFDRR/WBG as part of the Afghanistan Disaster Risk
Management (DRM) Program. It presents a potential pathway to strengthen the country’shydrometeorological (hydromet) services in general and Early Warning Systems (EWS) andservices in particular, reflecting the needs of the user community. The report is based on atechnical evaluation and detailed assessment of the needs and capacities of the Afghanistan
Meteorological Department (AMD) of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority (ACAA) andthe Water Resources Department (WRD) of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW). These
agencies issue weather and water-related forecasts and are thus considered as the main
service providers in the country. Other government agencies that are responsible for theprovision of advisory services related to weather, climate, hydrology, disaster management,
and agriculture to end-users (down to the community level) in Afghanistan are consideredas key stakeholders of AMD and WRD’s information and services. Among stakeholders,the most important are the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), theAfghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) and the Ministry of Rural
Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). This report identifies gaps and challenges in the
production and delivery of weather, climate, and hydrological information and services,
and it proposes a strategy for improving the country’s institutional capacity to save lives
and livelihoods and to support social and economic development. The authors consulted
government institutions and agencies (including the above-listed) to stakeholders, nongovernmental organizations (NGO), and donors. The report is the result of a collaboration
between the government of Afghanistan and the World Bank.
The authors wish to extend their appreciation to and acknowledge the national agencies,
ministries, and organizations for their support and assistance in granting access to information, for providing support to the report, and for being available for discussions during thereport’s assessment. We are particularly grateful to Mr. Mahmood Shah Habibi, Head, ACAA;
Mr. Sayed Reza Mousawi, Director, AMD; Mr. FazulHaq Bakhtari, Director, WRD; Mr. Sayed
Sharif Shobair, Advisor, MEW; Mr. Noorullah Stanikzai, Deputy Director General, National
Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA); and, Mr. Ezatullah Sediqi, Deputy Director
General, National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA).
The World Bank team was led by Makoto Suwa and Haleh Kootval, and included Arati Belle,
Abdul Azim Doosti, Ditte Fallesen, Federica Ranghieri, Mohamed Chebaane, Paul Houser,
Philip Poyner, and Pedro Restrepo.

iii

Foreword
Afghanistan is highly prone to natural disasters: every year hundreds of people lose their lives
and thousands more are affected by hydrometeorological disasters. The frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods, landslides and droughts are projected to increase due
to climate change. Such events will undermine our country’s development efforts, which havealready faced many challenges.
In recent decades, we have experienced several unfortunate events, including the civil war,that have decreased institutional capacity in Afghanistan. The quality of key public services
has deteriorated throughout two decades of war, turmoil, and insecurity. Meteorological andhydrological services, which are critical for almost all socioeconomic sectors in Afghanistan,were no exception. Whereas these services had once been among the best in the region, theGovernment of Afghanistan has had to rebuild their capacity from scratch.
With support from partners, the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority’s Afghanistan Meteorological
Department (AMD) and the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) have regained basic capacity
during the last couple of years. AMD is now able to issue basic warnings for hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, heavy rain, dust storms, heat waves, and cold waves.
Likewise, MEW is now equipped with the basic capability to monitor hydrological parameters.
Rebuilding services such as these is an ongoing effort and will require systematic and holistic
investment to boost the capacity of the Government of Afghanistan to provide these essential
services to all of its citizens and key economic sectors.
It is, therefore, my great pleasure to introduce “Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services
In Afghanistan: A Road Map,” which offers strategic direction to my country on how hydromet
and early warning services in Afghanistan can be strengthened and used more effectively. The
practical value of this report cannot be overstated, as it comes at a time when weather andclimate change consequences, if left unaddressed, will significantly hinder the country’s socialand economic development.
A robust set of findings and recommendations in this roadmap lays the foundation for the country’s
future strengthening efforts. It also paves the way for improvements and modernization in both
AMD and MEW’s Water Resources Department – two key agencies for such efforts in Afghanistan.
I would like to thank the World Bank team who helped prepare this roadmap. I am very
excited about this ambitious new stage in the development of effective hydromet and early
warning services in Afghanistan, and I look forward to its successful implementation.

Mahmood Shah HabibiHead, Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority

iv

Foreword
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters and is ranked second among lowincome countries on the Global Climate Risk Index in terms of the number of fatalities from natural
disasters between 1980 and 2015. Droughts affect a significant proportion of the population while
floods cause the most economic damage among weather hazards affecting the country.
A changing climate magnifies these risks and the incidence of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts, creating climate-induced disasters such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,
avalanches, and rainfall-induced landslides. World Bank studies show that in the case of a lack of action,
climate change related impacts can push an additional 62 million people in the South Asia Region into
extreme poverty by 2030, with the risk of more than 40 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
The current drought situation in Afghanistan exemplifies this trend – drought conditions over recent
years have led to severe crop shortfalls in many regions that have been chronically food insecure andhave so far led to the displacement of more than 150,000 people.
Establishing accurate and timely hydromet, early warning and climate information services is urgently
needed in Afghanistan to minimize human and economic losses. After many years of civil strife,
Afghanistan is making progress towards rebuilding its hydromet and early warning institutions andrecognizes the importance of quality public services. In addition to reducing loss of life and damage
to assets, the productivity of key economic sectors in the country, such as agriculture, water resourcesmanagement, transport, and energy depends on the availability and access to quality weather, water,
and climate information services.
This Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services in Afghanistan: A Road Map utilizes thehydromet value chain as a framework to identify bottlenecks and benchmark relevant best practices tostrengthen and modernize hydromet services. It is a particularly timely resource and is noteworthy inbringing together multiple sectoral and service delivery agencies towards a common strategic direction.
Showcasing World Bank experience, this report indicates that although the price tag of modernizing
and sustaining National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHs) is considerable, the rewards
for the country and its citizens is much higher, with each dollar invested yielding more than US$4 inavoided losses.
The Road Map presents a pathway of action that the Government of Afghanistan could take to transform its NMHSs into robust, professional agencies capable of delivering the right information to thevulnerable people at the right time.

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez
Senior Director, Social,
Urban, Rural and
Resilience Global Practice
The World Bank Group

Shubham ChaudhuriCountry Director
Afghanistan, South Asia
Region, The World Bank
Group

v



Contents
Acknowledgments.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Forewords. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
1. Introduction to Geographical Features and Weather, Climate
and Hydrological Hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. Weather and Climate Risks.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3. Socioeconomic Impacts of Hydromet Hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
4. Assessment of User Needs for Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Services. . . . . . . . . . 15
5. Institutional and Organizational Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.1 A Brief History of the Afghanistan Meteorological Department.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.2 A Brief History of the Water Resources Management Department. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
6. Current Status of AMD, WRD-MEW, and Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
6.1 Service Delivery Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
6.1.1 Public Weather Services System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
6.1.2 Disaster Management Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
6.1.3 Aviation Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
6.1.4 Water Management and Flood Forecasting Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
6.1.5 Agricultural Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
6.1.6 Climate Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6.2 Quality Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6.2.1 Institutional Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6.2.2 Operational Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
6.3 Capacity Building.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
6.4 Monitoring and Observation Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
6.4.1 Global Data System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
6.4.2 National Data Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
6.4.3 Upper Air System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

viSTRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

6.4.4 Radar System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6.4.5 Use of Remote Sensing Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6.4.6 Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System,
Quality System, and Storage and Archiving.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6.5 ICT Systems: Telecommunication System (Data Exchange
and Distribution System, Transmission). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
6.6 Modeling Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.6.1 Global and Regional NWP Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.7 Objective and Impact Forecasting and Warning Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.7.1 Severe Hazard Forecasting Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.7.2 Very Short- and Short-Range Forecasting Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
6.7.3 Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
6.8 Current System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
7. Modernization of Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Early
Warning Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
7.1 Value Chain Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
7.2 Development Partners and Cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
7.2.1 Regional Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
7.2.2 International Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
8. Proposed Road Map for Modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
8.1 Delivery of Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
8.1.1 Strengthening Public Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
8.1.2 Developing a Comprehensive National Drought Monitoring Program.. . . . . . . . . . . . 62
8.1.3 Development of a National Framework for Climate Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
8.2 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
8.2.1 Institutional Strengthening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
8.2.2 Capacity Building.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
8.3 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems,
and Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
8.3.1 Meteorological Observation Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
8.3.2 Hydrological Observation Infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
8.3.3 Data Management, Communication, and ICT System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
8.3.4 Meteorological Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
8.3.5 Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Decision Support System. . . . . . . . . . . 67

CONTENTS

9. Road Map Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
9.1 Scenario 1: Advanced Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
9.1.1 Enhancement of the AMD and MEW Service Delivery Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
9.1.2 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
9.1.3 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management
Systems, and Forecasting.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
9.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
9.3 Scenario 3: Technical Assistance for High Priority and Immediate Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
10. Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydrometeorological Services
and Early Warning Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
11. Conclusions and a Way Forward.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Annex 1. Required Training Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Annex 2. Service Delivery Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Annex 3. Observation and Telecommunication Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Annex 4. Forecasting Progress Model.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Annex 5. Climate Services Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Annex 6. Existing National Strategies and Plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

List of Figures
Figure 1. Elevation Map of Afghanistan...........................................................................................1
Figure 2. Major River Basins of Afghanistan.................................................................................2
Figure 3. Economic Activity and Land Use in Afghanistan.......................................................4
Figure 4. Köppen Climate Classification Zones of Afghanistan...............................................5
Figure 5. Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall, Series 1901–2015...............................6
Figure 6. Spatial Variability of Mean Annual Precipitation........................................................6
Figure 7. Flash Flood Susceptibility Index.....................................................................................7
Figure 8. Afghanistan 100-Year Avalanche Scenario..................................................................8vii

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

Figure 9. Agricultural Drought Risk, Current Conditions...........................................................8
Figure 10. Agricultural Drought Risk, 2050 Conditions.............................................................8
Figure 11. Susceptibility Map for Cover Material Landslides in Rapid Evolution..................9
Figure 12. Overview of Natural Disasters by Province, 2013.................................................... 11
Figure 13. Afghanistan Risk Summary.......................................................................................... 12
Figure 14. Financing for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Mortality
Risk Index, 1991–2010 (volumes, US$ millions).......................................................................... 13
Figure 15. Proposed Structure of Afghanistan Meteorological Department....................... 18
Figure 16. Historical Trend for Hydrometric Active Stations in Afghanistan(World Bank and Water for Life, 2017.......................................................................................... 19
Figure 17. Organizational Structure of the Water Resources Department......................... 20
Figure 18. Generic System of Systems for a Modern NMHS.................................................... 21
Figure 19. System-of-Systems Concept of Operational Flood Forecasting by an NHS....22
Figure 20. Avalanche Risk Impact.................................................................................................23
Figure 21. Agriculture, Industry, and Services in Afghanistan, 2010/11................................ 26
Figure 22. AMD Meteorological Monitoring Network............................................................... 31
Figure 23. Precipitation Monitoring Network.............................................................................32
Figure 24. Location of the 26 AWSs Managed by MEW..........................................................33
Figure 25. Climate Monitoring Network...................................................................................... 34
Figure 26. Snow Monitoring Network...........................................................................................35
Figure 27. Agroclimate Monitoring Network.............................................................................. 36
Figure 28. Hydrological Monitoring Network.............................................................................37
Figure 29. Location of Sediment Analysis Laboratories......................................................... 39
Figure 30. Data Availability............................................................................................................ 42
Figure 31. Framework for a Hydromet Data-Sharing Platform.............................................. 43
Figure 32. Landslide Locations..................................................................................................... 48
Figure 33. Sample Three-Day Forecast Produced by AMD ................................................... 49
Figure 34. AMD System of Systems, Current Capacity............................................................ 51

CONTENTS

Figure 35. MEW System of Systems, Current Capacity............................................................52
Figure 36. Schematic of Global Observing, Telecommunication, Data Processing,
Forecasting and Dissemination System...................................................................................... 54
Figure 37. Hydromet Production Value Chain............................................................................ 55
Figure 38. Schematic of NMHS Modernization.......................................................................... 56
Figure 39. Data Flow in Hydrometeorological Services.......................................................... 56
Figure 40. Stages and Elements of Hydrometeorological Service Delivery...................... 60
Figure 41. Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems...............................................75
Figure 42. Scenario 1 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems.............................................77
Figure 43. Capabilities of AMD System of Systems................................................................. 79
Figure 44. Scenario 2 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems............................................ 81
Figure 45. Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems............................................. 84
Figure 46. Scenario 3 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems........................................... 86

List of Tables
Table 1. Disaster Risk Management and Weather-Sensitive Socioeconomic
Sectors Requiring Hydromet Information................................................................................... 15
Table 2. Hydromet and EW Products and Services Demanded
but Not Available............................................................................................................................... 16
Table 3. Current Rainfall Monitoring Network by Basin...........................................................32
Table 4. Climate Monitoring Network by Basin......................................................................... 34
Table 5. Snow Monitoring Network by Basin..............................................................................35
Table 6. Hydrometric Monitoring Network by Basin................................................................ 38
Table 7. Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Hazards Cascading from
Hydrometeorological Events......................................................................................................... 45
Table 8. Debris Flow in Afghan Districts..................................................................................... 47
Table 9. AMD System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%)................................ 51
Table 10. MEW System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%).............................52

ix

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

Table 11. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%).... 76
Table 12. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System
of Systems (%)....................................................................................................................................78
Table 13. Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System
of Systems (%)................................................................................................................................... 80
Table 14. Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System
of Systems (%)................................................................................................................................... 82
Table 15. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for AMD System of Systems (%).............. 85
Table 16. Scenario 3 Approximate Capabilities for MEW System of Systems (%).............87

List of Photos
Photo 1: Manual Recording of Synoptic and METAR Observations
at Herat Station.................................................................................................................................. 31
Photo 2: Automatic Hydrologic Station...................................................................................... 38
Photo 3: Modern Forecaster Workstation in Cambodia...........................................................53
Photo 4. Flood Forecasting Center, Met Office, United Kingdom......................................... 61
Photo 5. Modern Public Weather Service Delivery in Indonesia........................................... 62xi

Abbreviations
ACAA

Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority

AMD

Afghanistan Meteorological Department

ANDMA

Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority

ASDC

Afghanistan Spatial Data Center

AWS

Automatic Weather Station

CAP

Common Alerting Protocol

CBFEWS

Community-Based Flood Early Warning System

CDC

Community Development Council

CONOPS

Concept of Operations

DEM

Digital Elevation Model

DRM

Disaster Risk Management

DSS

Decision Support System

ECMWF

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

EUMETSAT

European Organization for Meteorological Satellites

EW

Early Warning

EWS

Early Warning Systems

FAO

Food and Agricultural Organization

FEWS

Flood Early Warning System

FEWS NET

Famine Early Warning System Network

FFGS

Flash Flood Guidance System

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFCS

Global Framework for Climate Services

GFDRR

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GFS

Global Forecasting System

GIS

Geographic Information System

GloFAS

Global Flood Awareness System

GMS

Global System for Mobile Communication

GTS

Global Telecommunication System

HYMEP

Project for Capacity Enhancement on Hydrometeorological Information
Management (JICA)ICIMODInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

ICT

Information and Communication Technology

IMMAP

Information Management and Mine Action Program

IRDP

Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Project

IT

Information Technology

JICA

Japan International Cooperation Agency

LiDAR

Light Detection and Ranging

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

MAILMinistry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

METAR

Meteorological Terminal Air Report

MEW

Ministry of Energy and Water

MoMP

Ministry of Mines and Petroleum

MoPH

Ministry of Public Health

MPW

Ministry of Public Works

MoU

Memorandum of Understanding

MRRD

Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development

MUDA

Ministry of Urban Development Affairs

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NEPA

National Environmental Protection Agency

NFCS

National Framework for Climate Services

NGO

Nongovernmental Organization

NHS

National Hydrological Service

NMHS

National Meteorological and Hydrological Service

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWP

Numerical Weather Prediction

O&M

Operations and Maintenance

ORS

Operation Resolute Support

PIREP

Pilot Reports

PWS

Public Weather Service

QA/QC

Quality Assurance/Quality Control

QMS

Quality Management System

RS

Remote Sensing

SAsiaFFG

South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System

SCoWLE

Supreme Council on Water, Land and Environment

SIGMET

Significant Meteorological Information

SIGWEX

Significant Weather

SMS

Short Message Service

SOP

Standard Operating Procedure

SPECI

Aviation Special Weather Report

SMDMHA

State Ministry of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs

SWE

Snow Water Equivalent

TAF

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

USAID

United States Agency for International Development

USGS

U.S. Geological Service

WBG

World Bank Group

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

WRD

Water Resources Department

xiii



Executive Summary

Country Context
Hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) data collection and analysis in Afghanistan
started in the late 1940s and mid-1950s, respectively. The hydrometric network expanded
rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, reaching a peak of 150 in 1980, and the meteorologicalnetwork had a similar trajectory. Two decades of war, however, brought instability andinsecurity that reduced public resources, capacities, collaboration, and coordination.
The institutional framework governing weather, climate and hydrological (hydromet) services
as well as early warning (EW) and disaster risk management (DRM) services did not escapethese setbacks. In 1996, Taliban forces sacked the meteorology office, ruining equipment
and destroying over 100 years of weather records. Hydroelectric production nearly ceased
as turbines were destroyed, floodgates blown open, and transmission lines brought down.
The civil war and its aftermath led to the degradation of traditional observation networks,
prevalence of outdated and inefficient technologies, and lack of modern instruments andinformation and communication technology (ICT).
The absence of forecasts and weather information reversed years of development gains infarming and civil aviation operations. In 1998, an Ariana Afghan Airlines flight in route from
Kandahar to Kabul in bad weather crashed into a mountaintop, killing 45 people. From1998 to 2004, a major drought forced nearly 1 million Afghans from their farms and herds
into metropolitan areas, impacting half the agriculture land, killing 3 million livestock, andseriously depleting groundwater resources in Kabul and the Kabul Water Basin.
Today, the country is in the process of rebuilding and reorganizing its institutions to better meet the needs of and deliver services to the Afghan people. The existing regulatory,
operational, and institutional framework governing hydromet, EW, and DRM provides a basis
for developing and implementing effective and efficient products and services. Two mainand interrelated challenges, however, are hindering progress in this area in Afghanistan.
First, Afghanistan needs to develop a comprehensive and inclusive national strategy/planfor DRM, hydromet, and EW services to better understand and appreciate these functions
and to clearly delineate existing and future roles and responsibilities. Second, institutional
communication and coordination needs to be (reestablished and) solidified along the entire
hydromet, EW, and DRM value chain. Coordination of observation networks, forecasting,and EW services is essential to avoid duplication, to build economies of scale, and toensure an effective supply chain in the production and delivery of services. In terms ofobservation, insufficient coordination among agencies could lead to two or more stations
from different agencies installed, in proximity, to observe the same parameters leadingxiv

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

to a significant waste of scarce resources. Similarly, the absence of proper coordinationin terms of hydromet products would inevitably lead to having several but incomplete
versions of the same products due to gaps in data/information inputs as well as capacity
requirements. It is important to note that if two separate agencies issue simultaneous anduncoordinated products, this will create confusion for the users, with potential to lead toendangering safety of life in case of severe weather-related hazards.
Strategically, the stability of Afghanistan, including that of the government and economy, canbe an enabling and at the same time a limiting factor in the pace of AMD’s development. A
key factor affecting stability is, of course, the security in the country which can restrict theimplementation of development plans. Very little can be done within any program designed
to develop the capacity of AMD, WRD-MEW, and their key stakeholders to prevent the
short-term risk. However, as part of a holistic development picture, the program itself cancontribute to stability through improved protection of life against hydrometeorologicalhazards and thus increase trust of the Afghan population that government is doing all it
can to protect citizens, particularly through improved food and water security, as well as
improving economic prosperity in important sectors such as aviation and land transport.

Purpose of the Road Map
The purpose of this analytical work is to assess the principal government ministries, departments, and agencies as stakeholders and implementing partners of hydromet and early
warning information and services. The driver of this Road Map is end-user needs and thearticulated actions and milestones are its markers of success.
Specifically, the Road Map targets government advisors and decision makers with atechnical strategic framework for hydromet and early warning services and the resulting
socioeconomic benefits. The expectation is for the main service providers to improve theircapability and capacity to: (i) produce, manage, translate, and communicate hydromet dataand information to stakeholders and end-users; (ii) assist stakeholders and end-users inaccessing, interpreting, and utilizing the generated data and information; (iii) help improvethe dissemination of and response to warnings for public safety and economic security;and (iv) inform planning and decision making for cost-effective investments in national
climate-resilient development.
It is reasonable to expect that by following the logic of the Road Map, the main service
providers would be able to respond to the most pressing and common needs of stakeholders
and end-users in support of disaster and climate resilience and sustainable socioeconomic
development. The Road Map is not meant to provide detailed design features for the lifetimeof modernization efforts. Rather, it lays out a strategic pathway with achievable milestones
to narrow and eventually close the gaps between the current status of hydromet and EW
service delivery, and the level of services that could be provided in Afghanistan following
various levels of investment. It models three investment scenarios, based on realistic fiscal
and sociopolitical possibilities, for better delivering hydromet and early warning services.
In preparation of the Road Map, the authors widely consulted the literature base, including:
Water4Life Draft Roadmap and Technical Assessment Report (2017); ACAA–AMD Strategic

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYPlan (2017–21); UK Met Office Review (2012); USAID/WMO Afghanistan Early Warning System
Project, Phase 1 (2017); WRD Hydrometeorological Activities and Flood Analyses (2016);
WBG/GFDRR Disaster Risk Profile–Afghanistan (2017); and WBG Afghanistan Disaster Risk
Management and Resilience Program (2017).

Proposed Modernization of Hydrometeorologicaland Early Warning Services
The purpose of modernizing hydromet and early warning services is to reduce the socioeconomic risks of weather, climate, and hydrological events, and thus to protect lives andeconomic/development gains. The situation in Afghanistan is complex in that there areseveral hydromet and DRM service providers but no early warning services.
The Afghanistan Meteorology Department (AMD) of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority(ACAA), and the Water Resources Department–Ministry of Electricity and Water (WRD-EW)
are the principal service providers. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock(MAIL) and the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA)1 are themain stakeholder agencies/implementing partners. Important secondary stakeholders
include the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), the Ministry of Public
Works (MPW), and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). The
proposed modernization intends to help these organizations fulfil their obligations tousers of hydromet information and services by strengthening institutional and technicalcapabilities and capacities.
Generally, the government of Afghanistan’s capacity to value meteorological and hydrological services is limited.2 MAIL, MRRD, and NEPA informally recognize hydrology andmeteorology as important in achieving their respective policy goals, but their strategicplans do not formally include WRD-MEW and AMD. The motivation of these organizations
to have access to meteorological and hydrological information and advice can lead themto initiate projects that provide the information they need to conduct their business. Yet
this approach can disrupt the cohesion of what should become a common information
picture provided by the NMHS.
A typical NMHS is comprised of a “system of systems” as shown below. This generic illustrationof a weather, climate, or hydrological system of systems can be used to identify the current
status of any NMHS and to visualize investments required component-by-component ineach system to achieve a particular level of improvement. The complexity of each system
and its subsystems varies depending on the size, level of development, and resources ofan individual NMHS. But the system-of-system’s building blocks are interdependent. User
requirement is an essential ingredient for the design and implementation of the entire
system. The first requirement is, therefore, to have staff with the capacity to understandand operate a particular system. This Road Map employs a system-of-systems approach to

1 Since this Road Map was undertaken, the government of Afghanistan elevated ANDMA to the State Ministry ofDisaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs (SMDMHA). In this report, however, it is referred to as “AMD.”2

Met Office (2012).

xv

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

GENERIC SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS FOR A MODERN NMHS
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems

Surface obs systems

Modeling systems
Global NWP systems

Limited area model
systemNowcasting system

External data systems

Hydro modelingsystems

ITC systems
Data comms
systems

Quality management systems
Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Computing hardware
and software systems
Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Service delivery systems
Public weather andhydro services system

Nowcasting system

G2G disastermanagement
service system

Very-short range
forecasting system

G2G agriculture
service system

Short-range
forecasting system

G2G water andpower management
services system

Regional NWP systems

Radar system

Data management
and archiving systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Medium-range
forecasting system
Long-range
forecasting system

Technology infusion systems

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems

Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met and Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Note: Dark Teal: production systems; Green: delivery systems; Cyan: enabling systems; Dark Green: capacity
building; Broken lines: either external or mix of internal and external systems; Solid lines: internal NMHS systems;
G2G: Government to Government; G2B: Government to Business. Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013).

arrive at three scenarios for modernizing the Afghanistan Meteorology Department (AMD)and the Water Resources–Ministry of Electricity and Water (AMD-WRD).
A substantial modernization program for any National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services should include three components, namely: (i) enhancement of service delivery
system; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modernization ofobservation, ICT, and forecasting infrastructure.3 The development of this Road Map isin line with this principle. The activities proposed aim to strengthen the AMD and WRDMEW’s institutional basis: to enhance a legal and regulatory framework and to develop
the capacity of staff; to technically modernize the observation, ICT, data management,
and hydromet forecasting infrastructure and facilities; and, most importantly, to improvethe delivery of hydromet and early warning service and information to the population andweather-dependent sectors.
A high-level overview of the major requirements for each component is presented below.
It should be noted that in the case of Afghanistan, this collection of activities will be tailormade to the specific needs of each institution, and the different components under each3

Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

category will be adjusted to reflect the actual situation at the time of implementation. It
may be decided to add other areas of activity or to remove some areas from the list.

ENHANCING SERVICE DELIVERY•

Developing and implementing a national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD) that draws
on guidance from the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan;4•Establishing communication channels and developing stronger relationships with hydromet
users (including through the institutional mechanism between service providers andusers) to specify users’ needs and priorities and gather feedback, for improving thevisibility, utility, and credibility of the hydromet and EW services;•

Developing EW services, including streamlining the mechanism for issuing and disseminating early warnings among the main agencies responsible for EW service provision;•

Enhancing public weather services (PWS) and hydrological services;•

Improving the accessibility and absorbability of vulnerable communities and other critical users to weather water and climate information through multiple ICT and sociallyrelevant modes, and using local languages and simplified communication formats;•Developing a national framework for climate services (NFCS) guided by the principlesof the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS);•

Delivering specialized services to critical weather dependent sectors, including but
not limited to:•

agriculture services, including an agriculture advisory service (including droughtmonitoring);•hydrological information services for integrated water resources management;•

services to economy sectors such as energy, urban, transport;•

Developing a common standard for service delivery across the main service providers; and•Enhancing services delivery through improved linkages with globa/regional partners
and countries in South and central Asia, including through the South Asia Hydromet
Forum engagement.

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY BUILDING•

Developing a Concept of Operation (CONOPS) to guide and support the transformationof AMD and WRD-MEW in line with the strategic plans and Road Map;•

Building the capacity of staff of service providers in technical and management aspects
including modern observing networks; use of modern observation networks; innovative
tools for weather and hydrological forecasting; application of downscaling methods forlong-range forecasting and climate prediction;•

Developing a national institutional framework for hydromet and EW services in Afghanistan that clarifies the roles and responsibilities for each of the institutions involved in

4

World Meteorological Organization (2014).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

observation, data management, modeling, forecasting, and service delivery of hydromet
events;•Establishing an institutional mechanism between the hydromet and EW service providers, as well as between these services and the users for sharing, data, information, joint
product development, and shared capacity enhancement; and•Introducing a Quality Management System (QMS) to strengthen the internal management and operational systems of the two main hydromet service providers (AMD and
MEW), including human resources planning, project and contract management, andfinancial and procurement capacity.

IMPROVING OBSERVING NETWORK, ICT INFRASTRUCTURE
AND FORECASTING•

Designing new, if necessary, and rehabilitating existing, meteorological and hydrologicalobservation networks operated by AMD, WRD-MEW, MAIL, and MPW through interagency collaboration; and establishing an operational maintenance program;5•

Establishing data management systems;•

Strengthening the ICT infrastructure;•

Establishing an Early Warning System;•

Introducing modern forecasting tools and methodologies, including Ensemble Prediction
Systems (EPS) and probabilistic forecasting for weather and hydrological forecasting
to produce accurate forecasts with required lead time and spatial resolution depending
on end-user requirements, including those for aviation and agriculture pest and disease;•

Introducing and operationalizing forecast verification methods;•

Introducing downscaling techniques for long-range forecasts and climate prediction;•

Introducing impact-based forecasting to cover severe hazards (e.g., floods, landslides,
avalanches, droughts, and heat and cold waves);•

Strengthening dissemination and communication channels and technologies; and•Establishing a national flood database.

This Road Map lays out three scenarios for modernization. Each contributes in different
degrees based on the time and resources available to a system capable of producing anddelivering: (i) timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and their potential
impacts; and (ii) forecasts for operations and planning in weather and climate-sensitive
economic sectors, particularly agriculture, transport (civil aviation), and water resourcesmanagement.
Scenario 1: Advanced Modernization. Investment to bring the capabilities for providing
fit-for-purpose data, forecasts, and warning services for the safety of the public and support
to develop the most important socioeconomic sectors (long term: seven years).
5 The ACCA–AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21 proposes the possible integration of meteorological stations and staffof the other ministries with AMD.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization. Investment to achieve a modest improvementin the capabilities to provide weather and hydrological services to meet the needs of themost important user communities. For example, disaster management, agriculture, aviation,
and water management (medium term: four years).
Scenario 3: Technical Assistance. Provision of technical assistance for low cost–high priority
activities to improve basic public services by introducing basic, affordable new technologies
into and training the staff of AMD, WRD-MEW, and the main stakeholders/implementers
for heightened capacities and capabilities (immediate to short term: two years).

Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydromet
Services and Early Warning Systems
In order for AMD and WRD-MEW to improve the quality, diversity, and coverage of theirservices, they must secure adequate and sustained funding. It is now a common practicefor hydromet service providers to undertake a cost–benefit analysis to secure and optimize
the use of investment resources. In all of the cases where such analyses have taken place,it has been demonstrated that the benefits of hydromet services are significantly larger
than the capital and operational costs needed to modernize, produce, and deliver them. As
public services, AMD and WRD-MEW are expected to deliver socioeconomic benefits to thewelfare of Afghanistan society. By comparing the costs and benefits of project options overtime, an understanding of the relative value of the planned investments can be generated.
To optimize investment benefits, the AMD and WRD-MEW modernization must focus ondelivering services using all possible mechanisms and channels to reach the end-users andensuring that users can productively apply those services.
Recent assessments have applied different methodologies as described in the authoritative
publication, Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological andHydrological Services.6 This includes further-refined, sector-specific, and benchmarking
approaches.
The overall economic benefits of hydromet modernization in Afghanistan was also assessed,
the results of which indicate that strengthening of the hydromet and EW services will yielda benefit–cost ratio ranging from 1.45 to 12.86.
It is clear that any enhancement in the capacity and capability of AMD and WRD-MEW
will lead to improvements in the generation of services, and thus will lead to benefits bothfrom reducing risks to life and property and from generating economic development. It
is possible that a more specific cost–benefit analysis may, for the detailed design andimplementation of projects based on the different scenarios offered in the Road Map, benecessary in the future.

6

WMO, World Bank/GFDRR and USAID (2015).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

1

1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOGRAPHICALFEATURES AND WEATHER, CLIMATE,
AND HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS

A

fghanistan is a landlocked country situated inSouth and Central Asia. Its 647,230 square kilometers (km2) are bordered in South and Southeast by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (2,430 km), in
the west by the Islamic Republic of Iran (936 km), in thenorth by Tajikistan (1,206 km), Turkmenistan (744 km)
and Uzbekistan (137 km) and in the far northeast by
China (76 km). The country is divided into 34 provinces
and subdivided into 398 districts, and the largest city,
Kabul, is also the capital.
Arid and ruggedly mountainous, more than half ofAfghanistan’s territory is 2,000 meters (m) above sea
level. The Hindu Kush Mountains divide the country
into the Central Highlands, which are part of the

FIGURE 1 • Elevation Map of Afghanistan

Source: www.mappery.com/map-of/Afghanistan-Elevation-Map

Himalayas and cover two-thirds of the total territory,
the Southwestern Plateau, and the small (under
10 percent of the territory) but fertile Northern Plains.
The highest point is Mount Noshaq at 7,485 m above
sea level (Figure 1).
Small glaciers and year-round snowfields are common;
mountain streams feed the major rivers.
The Amu Darya, Hari, Helmand, and Kabul Rivers
give rise to five major river basins (Harirud-Murghab,
Helmand, Kabul, North, and Panj-e-Amu) and to smaller
rivers, tributaries, streams, and lakes (which are smallin size and number). Salt marshes are found on thewestern border. Except for the Kabul River, which flows

2

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 2 • Major River Basins of Afghanistan

Source: Favre and Monowar (2004).

east into Indus River and empties into the Indian Ocean,most water bodies flow into inland seas, swamps, orsalt flats. (Figure 2).7
The most important dams and reservoirs in Afghanistan are the Kajaki Reservoir on the Helmand River,
the Arghandab Dam on the Argliandab Tributary of
the Helmand River, the Sardeh Dam on the Ghazni
River, and the Kelagay Dam on the Darya-ye-Qondoz
Tributary of the Amu Darya River.8
In Afghanistan, reservoirs are very important to increasewater availability, considering seasonal variability ofavailable water resources, whereas river flows dependon annual rainfall and snowmelt that result in a few
perennial rivers and many seasonal streambeds carrying
water for only a short time. The Hindu Kush snowpack
is arguably more important for water resources,
agriculture, and livelihoods than direct rainfall, andthis is reflected in the relative importance of the two
phenomena for flooding and the long-standing requirement for irrigation across many provinces. Changes inseasonal weather, even slightly, can have a substantial
7

http://www.afghanistans.com/Information/RiversLakes.htm

8

Ibid.

impact on the socioeconomic fabric of Afghanistan.
The winter snow determines the total snowpack-related
water availability for any given year, and drought hasa critical influence on this.
Winter precipitation tends to vary year-to-year as aresult of both natural variability and climate change.
During the spring, variability of air temperature overthe mountains varies the rate of snowmelt, which
relates to the propensity for flood and the long-termwater availability over the summer. For example,
substantially warmer than average temperatures (e.g.,
those of March 2010) will cause a rapid snowmelt,
increased risk of flooding, and damage to dams/
irrigation, and reduce long-term water availability
over the summer with negative effects on consistenthydroelectric power generation and agriculture. Colder
than average temperatures result in a slower snowmelt,
initial problems with downstream water availability,
but better long-term conditions over the summer.
Water management dovetails with water availability,
which is coupled to the weather and climate. The
Kajaki Reservoir and Arghandab Dam have served tobetter regulate flooding after snowmelt in the spring
and, arguably, water shortages/drought for the two
provinces in the summer with reduced frequency of

1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDSthe river failing in its lower reaches, except during
extremely dry years.
Due to human interventions, mostly irrigation, thenatural flow patterns have been disturbed, resulting
in longer dry periods across the region. Irrigation usesover 99 percent of water [about 24,000 million cubic
meters (m3)] in Helmand and Kandahar. Agricultural
regions are supplied by 300 miles of concrete lined
canals which were built to distribute reservoir water.
However, on average, the estimated available surface
water per capita is 2,480 m3 a year, comparing favorably with neighboring countries. Nearly 90 percent
of all irrigation systems in Afghanistan are traditional
schemes, usually canal networks built by farmers
themselves and operated communally. While enablingwidespread agriculture in an otherwise arid environment, infrastructures such as reservoirs and canals
are in poor shape, limited in capacity, and limited in
number. Thus, it is difficult to control/store snowmelt
for agricultural use and for water control to prevent/reduce flooding. The canal management system has
substantially collapsed, and the irrigation systems arein worse repair. Of the traditional canal structures,
46 percent are damaged and completely silted, thisbeing exacerbated by climate-related desertification
across the country and the consequent increased
frequency and intensity of dust storms.
There are few surface water bodies in Afghanistan.
Groundwater, however, is usually abundant in quaternary aquifers along all major river valleys. In their lower
reaches, groundwater is frequently saline or brackish
and not usable for drinking water or irrigation, andexacerbated by overconsumption in large agriculturalareas. Traditional small-scale irrigation systems arevillage operated and usually rely on diverting thedirection of local streams. Larger informal operations
are required for the plains and are typically a unitedeffort between villages, coordinated by each village’s
water master. This can mean that water access isinequitable, and variable meteorological conditions
can exacerbate or even create tension within therural community.
Traditional irrigation methods (mostly the floodingof fields) are wasteful. Resultant inefficiency again
increases the sensitivity of both the local populace andagricultural sector to marked variations in weather andseasonality. The increased implementation of diesel

pump wells, while increasing water availability locally,
have reduced the overall water table within catchments
and the overall availability of water. Small-scale water
management is most relevant in rural communities
dominated by small farms owned or rented by individuals. Water is limited due to drought and a falling watertable. As the amount of water is critical in determining
what crops can be cultivated, it can be a major causeof local, provincial, and regional disputes. Improved
access to safe drinking water for the urban and rural
population is an important priority that is related to
the weather and requires AMD oversight.9
Decades of war marred the natural topography andreversed the gains in electric development. In easternand southeastern Afghanistan, forest covered about
2 million hectares (about 5 million acres), or about
4.5 percent of the country, before the war. The ravagesof war, the scarcity of fuel, and the need for firewood
for cooking and heating have caused rapid deforestation. Prior to the civil war, less than 10 percent of thecountry's hydroelectric potential had been developed.
After the war began, hydroelectric production dropped
off almost completely as turbines were destroyed,
floodgates blown open, and transmission lines brought
down. By the mid-1990s, private diesel generators
were about all that remained of 75 years of electric
development.10
Nearly 85 percent of Afghanistan’s territory is notarable. The small arable fraction, which largely isused for sheep and goat grazing, and the transport
infrastructure supporting it, are highly sensitive toweather events, as are several other sectors (Figure 3).
Afghanistan is prone to many hydrometeorological hazards that have adversely affected the lives,property, and livelihoods of the Afghan people for
centuries. The most devastating hazards in terms offrequency, destruction, and human loss include floods,
flash floods, droughts, landslides, avalanches, andextreme heat and cold. Wars and civil conflicts haveincreased the vulnerability of the Afghan people tonatural disasters.

9

Met Office (2012).

10 www.afghanistans.com/Information/Climate.htm

3

4

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 3 • Economic Activity and Land Use in Afghanistan

Source: Met Office (2012).
Note: Agricultural activity is highly correlated to river valleys and associated irrigation systems (shown in pink). Right: Aerial photographover the Helmand River Basin, showing a ribbon of agricultural land mirroring the Arghandab River course and irrigation system amidst arid
desert.

5



2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS

A

fghanistan has a typical inland climate, arid andsemiarid steppe with hot summers and cold
winters. The lower parts of the country have asemiarid or desert climate. Along the border with Iranhot, dry, dusty winds are among the most unpleasantfeatures of the summer weather. Afghanistan has clearly
defined seasons: summers are hot, and winters canbe very harsh, particularly in the mountains. Summer
temperatures as high as 49 degrees Celsius (°C) havebeen recorded in the northern valleys. Midwintertemperatures as low as –20°C are common in the Hindu
Kush region. The climate in the highlands varies withelevation (Figure 4).

Temperatures can range widely in a single day, fromfreezing conditions at dawn to the upper 30s°C at
12 noon. Since 1960, the average annual number of hotdays and nights has increased by almost 7 percent, andthe average annual number of cold days and nights
has decreased by approximately 3 percent.11 Mean
annual temperature variation is expected to increaseby 1.1–2.0°C by 2035.

11

Deltares (2016).

FIGURE 4 • Köppen Climate Classification Zones of Afghanistan

Source: Derived from: Peel et al. (2007).

6

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

c
De

No
v

t
Oc

p
Se

Au
g

Ju

Ju

ay
M

Ap

M

Temperature

l

0

n

0

r

16

ar

40

Fe
b

32

Ja
n

80

Temperature (°C)

Rainfall (mm)FIGURE 5 • Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall, Series 1901–2015

Rainfall

Source: World Bank Group Climate Change Portal. Accessed August 2018. http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/

Weather is the most volatile during the winter andspring, and most of the precipitation falls between
October and April (Figure 4). The deserts receive lessthan 100 millimeters (mm) of rain a year, whereas themountains receive more than 1,000 mm of precipitation,
mostly as snow. Frontal winds sweeping in from thewest may bring large sandstorms or dust storms, while
the strong solar heating of the ground raises large local
whirlwinds. Some areas become isolated with the onset
of autumn’s first snowfall and remain isolated until thespring thaw. In the most severe cases, this can mean
up to and beyond six months a year of isolation.

FIGURE 6 • Spatial Variability of Mean Annual
Precipitation

The influence of the Mediterranean Sea reaches all
the way to Afghanistan, sending depressions thatbring the winter precipitation. The high mountains
to the south and east shield Afghanistan from thesummer rains brought to India and parts of Pakistanby the southwest monsoon. Almost no rain falls
from June to October. Sunshine ranges from six toseven hours a day in winter to as much as twelve tothirteen in summer.12

Source: Met Office (2012).

The snow and glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya
Mountains are a major source of freshwater. They
provide the basis for livelihoods for an estimated
210 million people, including those in Afghanistan.

12 Afghanistan Committee (Accessed August 2018).
www.afghanistan.no

Afghanistan’s relatively dry climate further accentuates the significance of its rivers for people’s survival
according to the International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
Water availability in Afghanistan is unequally distributed
over time and space (Figure 5 and Figure 6). Whilesome areas have an abundance of water, others are drier.
Long periods of draught can be followed by intense
rainfall with catastrophic consequences. This causes
the country to suffer from two rather contrary threats:water shortages, often amounting to serious drought,
and water excess, causing frequent destructive floods.13
13 Beekma and Fiddes (2014).

7

2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS

Since 1960, the average rainfall in Afghanistan has
declined by an average of 2 percent per month per
decade.14 Given the projections of rainfall and averagetemperatures, the hydrologic impact is expected toresult in a drop of water resource reserves leading to:(i) reduced flows of major rivers due to localized andperiodic drought; and (ii) exacerbation of the risk ofa shortage of drinking water by 2025.
The main hydrometeorological risks are floods, drought,
landslides, and avalanches. The high altitudes, poor
soil, harsh climate, and political turmoil amplify the
impact of variances in temperature and precipitation,negatively affecting both agricultural productivity androad conditions for access to markets. Afghanistan
consistently ranks high on the Global Climate Risk
Index, and each year weather-related hazards affectan estimated 500,000.
Floods and flash floods are the most destructive
weather-related hazard.15 Snowpack melt can cause
the five major river basins to flood and can damage
dams and irrigation channels. This seasonal riverine
flooding can be exacerbated by warmer than averagetemperatures moving across the Hindu Kush in thespring that result in a faster snowmelt. It usually overwhelms infrastructure, including water management
systems. In contrast, storms chiefly in the winter andspring produce intense rainfall and relatively localized flash floods that affect individual provinces. The
intensity and frequency of the rainfall events and thesize of the watershed characterize the type of flood.
Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain and steep valleys
mean many areas are prone to flash flooding, especiallyin the central and northeast regions. Figure 7 shows
the Flash Flood Susceptibility Index per administrative unit (districts), as developed by an independent
institute for applied research in the field of water andsubsurface, Deltares (green being the lowest and red
the highest).
Deltares’ analysis of Afghanistan’s flood impact yields
an estimated annual number of affected persons atover 100,000 and flood damages of US$53 million.
Based on hazard projections of Afghanistan’s futureclimate, Deltares forecasts that future flood risk will
increase substantially. More of the population will be
14 Deltares (2016).
15 Met Office (2012).

FIGURE 7 • Flash Flood Susceptibility Index

Source: Deltares (2016).
Note: Average per administrative unit (districts), median values.

exposed to flooding (200,000–300,000 annually
in 2050), and more assets will be at risk of damage (US$300–US$700 million annually in 2050).
Afghanistan’s rate of flood deaths compared to the
population’s flood exposure is one of the highest in theworld. Heavy rains in 2014 caused extensive flooding
and trigged landslides in the province of Badakhshanthat killed over 350 people. Recurrent floods have
not only become violent, but also cause soil erosion.
Flooding also impacts the spread of malaria and otherwaterborne diseases.
Avalanches are Afghanistan’s third deadliest natural
hazard, after earthquakes and floods. Strong snowfall
and the resulting avalanches in Afghanistan’s many
mountainous regions cause significant loss of life anddamage to infrastructure, property, and livestock.
Avalanches kill dozens of people each year, and in 2015
severe snowfalls led to avalanches which killed almost
300 people. Fifteen percent of Afghanistan’s road
network is exposed to avalanches, and roads throughmountain passes are frequently closed. Afghanistan’s
avalanches are challenging to model due to variablesof topography, terrain morphology, and snow properties. Accurate avalanche prediction also requires thecollection of a continuous time series of weather andclimate data, with decades of historical data to compare
against, which Afghanistan unfortunately lacks. Avalanches occur in Afghanistan’s central and northeastern
provinces. Overall, 2,700–35,000 people are at riskof death due to snow avalanches, with 1,100–11,200
at risk of injury. Of Afghanistan’s current population,

8

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 8 • Afghanistan 100-Year Avalanche
Scenario

Source: Deltares (2016).
Note: Orange: provinces with a record of avalanche events; mapped
occurrence of snow water equivalency values with sufficient annual
snowfall for a 100-year avalanche scenario.

8 percent is potentially exposed to avalanches underthe 100-year avalanche scenario (Figure 8).

FIGURE 9 • Agricultural Drought Risk, Current
Conditions

Source: Deltares (2016).
Note: Expected annual water shortage (%).

FIGURE 10 • Agricultural Drought Risk, 2050
Conditions

Thunderstorms are generally localized events in
Afghanistan, affecting the country on the provincial
and district scale during the winter and spring (thoughsome do occur infrequently over the summer andautumn). Thunderstorms have the potential to destroy
or disrupt key nodes of an electricity supply network.
Drought is a major risk in Afghanistan, and droughts
have been recorded in every part of the country.
Rainfall is scarce and unpredictable, and a small
snowpack resulting from a dry winter can result in low
reservoir levels, dry streams, and shortages of potable
and irrigation water and can lead to food shortages
and socioeconomic problems (the case in 2017/18).
Growing urban and rural population will further stresswater supply. A drought in 1970/71 affected nearly theentire country and caused displacement of people andfood shortages. A major drought from 1999 to 2004
affected millions and forced entire villages to abandon
their lands and flee to cities as refugees. Groundwaterlevels in Kabul and elsewhere in the basin are still
recovering. Drought conditions prevailed for almost
five years, resulting in the loss of more than 50 percentof the pasture land, affecting approximately 3 million
livestock, and necessitating humanitarian assistance foralmost 1 million Afghans. The threat of displacement

Source: Deltares (2016).
Note: Expected annual water shortage (%).

and migration from the affected areas (mainly in thenorthern regions) has triggered the fear of a situation
similar to the 1999–2004 drought, with the ensuingsocial problems. The immediate economic impact ofdroughts is difficult to determine. There is a time lag
between meteorological drought and drought losses due
to buffers such as reservoirs, farmers’ financial reserves,and groundwater reserves (Figure 9 and Figure 10).

9

2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKSFIGURE 11 • Susceptibility Map for Cover Material
Landslides in Rapid Evolution

material landslides in rapid evolution (e.g., debris flows
and mudflows). Afghanistan’s northeast and central
provinces are most at-risk to landslides (Figure 11).
Other hazards include plant diseases and pests (e.g.,
Baluchistan melon fly, Colorado potato beetle, andMoroccan locust), which are a major source of annual
crop losses. About 80 percent of Afghanistan’s population relies on agriculture for food and income, andpests are a key contributor to food insecurity.

Source: Deltares (2016).

Landslides and mudflows occur frequently in Afghanistan, but many are low-impact events or highly localized
and are not comprehensively indexed. Afghanistan
experiences three types of landslides: bedrock landslides in slow evolution, bedrock landslides in rapid
evolution (often induced by earthquakes), and cover

Average air quality (e.g., particulate matter) in the region
is poorer than the global baseline, and the weather cancause significant variability across Afghanistan due topollution in urban areas and dust storms in rural areas.
A 2005/06 study concluded that 60 percent of the
population is exposed to elevated concentrations ofparticulate matter (fine anthropogenic dust), nitrous
oxide, and sulphur dioxide, which cause an estimatedexcess in annual mortality of 2,000 people.16

16 Met Office (2012).

11



3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
OF HYDROMET HAZARDS

A

fghanistan is a low-income country with avery high-risk profile.17 The country’s low
level of socioeconomic development makes it
extremely vulnerable to disaster, with several notable
contributing factors. Decades of disasters have undermined the country’s coping mechanisms and protective
capacity; this increases the likelihood that hazards turninto disasters with large humanitarian and economic
consequences. While natural hazards and disasters do
not necessarily cause conflict in and of themselves,
natural disasters can exacerbate the challenges people
already face in fragile states, create new risks, and add
stress to an already weakened governance system
while fueling grievances.18

The country is highly prone to intense and recurring
natural hazards due to its geographical location andyears of environmental degradation, resulting in thefrequent loss of lives, livelihoods, and property. Since
1980, hydromet-related disasters have affected 9 million
people, causing over 20,000 fatalities19 and making
Afghanistan the second-deadliest developing country
for hydromet hazards.
Geophysical and weather-related events were responsible for half of all deaths in Afghanistan between 1980
and 2015: for every 1 million inhabitants, 1,150 died.20
While earthquakes caused the highest loss of life (9,236)
from 1970 to 2012, hydromet disasters had significant
impacts. Drought impacted approximately two in threeAfghans (6.5 million of 9.3 million total population) andflooding caused about two-thirds of all economic damages (US$396 million of US$597 million total losses).21
Figure 12 illustrates the casualties and losses due tonatural disasters by province. Floods are the most

FIGURE 12 • Overview of Natural Disasters by Province, 2013
AFGHANISTAN: Overview of Natural Disasters
Natural disaster incidents as recorded by OCHA Field Offices and IOM from 1 January to 30 June 2013
Number of Individuals Affectedby Natural Disasters

Number of Natural Disaster Incidents
by District and Province
Badakhshan

JawzjanSamangan

2

Sari Pul

4

Bamyan

2

Hirat
15

2
BaghlanParwan7

116

4 Logar2

GhazniPaktya4
Uruzgan

Kapisa 4
21
23
12
Laghman

Kabul

3

8

Nuristan

Panjsher

10

Daykundi

Farah

Balkh

24

TakharBadghis9

1

Paktika

Bamyan

Hirat
10
Ghor

Affected Individuals
Uruzgan

2

Farah

Prw.

16

L.

Ghazni
3

10

7

Kabl.
3

10

Nrstn. 6

22
L.
Nng.

Kn.
55

76

Pakty.

3

3 K.

Incidents by District

1

1-5
6 - 25

10

Zabul
1

1,001 - 5,000

8Baghlan

22

Daykundi
3Khost

1 - 1,000

9Myd. Wr.

20

6

2

Pnj.

4

Kunar

Nangarhar

By Province
Zabul

2
Samangan3
Sari Pul

Takhar2
Kunduz30

FaryabMaydanWardak11
Ghor

Badakhshan

Jawzjan1

Kunduz27

FaryabBadghis

Balkh

Paktika#

Incidents by Province

5,001 - 15,000
NimrozKandaharHilmandNimrozBalkh (36,548); Nangahar (41,902)

1

#

6

7

1

Afghans Killed or Injured

KandaharHilmand1 4 4 Districts affected

Number of Houses Damaged or Destroyed
by Province
Jawzjan84

BalkhSari Pul

190

58

34

4
Samangan

Bamyan

Hirat

1

Prw.

5
Ghor

Daykundi

Kabl.

Uruzgan

20

Pn.

26

19

Nrstn.
16

384
59
L.
54
Nng. 1,723

Hilmand

Kandahar

22

10

280

21,000Affected
Individuals

Afghans Killed
or Injured

Houses Damaged
or Destroyed

3%

3%

7%

29%

35%

1%

51%

67%

35%
1%

7%

61%

0

100

200 KmDate Printed: 11 July 2013 03:55 PM

By Province

Data Source(s):AGCHONatural disaster information: OCHA Field Offices and IOM
Afghanistan Humanitarian Assistance Database (HADB)

No Houses Damaged

Paktika1 - 100
101 - 1,000

Nimroz140,000

Notes:
1) Natural disaster events include avalanches, extreme
winter conditions, flooding, heavy rainfall, landslides &mudflows, and extreme weather (sandstorms, hail, wind,etc) as recorded by OCHA field offices and IOM Afghanistan
Humanitarian Assistance Database (HADB).
2) A natural disaster incident is defined as an event that has
affected (i.e. impacted) Afghans, who may or may not
require humanitarian assistance.
3) HADB information is used as a main reference andsupplemented by OCHA Field Office reports for thoseincidents where information is not available from the HADB.
OCHA information includes assessment figures from OCHA,ANDMA, Red Crescent Societies, national NGOs,international NGOs, and ERM.
4) The number of affected Afghans and houses damaged or
destroyed are based on the reports received. These figures
may change as updates are received.

Houses Damaged

5
Zabul

Kn.

23

161
L.
Paktya10K.

Ghazni
2

Farah

33

22

20
BaghlanMaydan Wardk.

253

Takhar

1 Kn.

1,631

FaryabBadghisSummary of Natural Disaster Eventsin 2013 (January to June) by Type

Badakhshan

1,001 - 4,054#

Houses Destroyed

Note: Damaged house category includes thenumber of damaged houses as recorded by
OCHA field offices and the number of 'Severely
Damaged Houses' only as recorded by IOM.

June

2 1

May

6

January11221) The flood category
includes both flash floods
and longer duration flooding.
2) The landslide category
also includes mud flows.
3) An 'event' is defined bydisaster type and date.

2 1

11

February

dddddd3dd3dddddd3dddddddd
d4ddddddddd3dd3ddddddddd
dddddddd3dddddd
dddddddddd

1

April
March

6

10

13
11

0

10

20

30

Projection/Datum: Geographic/WGS-84
Disclaimers:
The designations employed and the presentation of material on thismap do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on thepart of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal
status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Doc Name:
Afg_NaturalDisasters2013_OCHA_IOM_A3_201307JUL08
Feedback: ocha.imu.afg@gmail.com
Website: http://afg.humanitarianresponse.info

Source: OCHA HumanitarianResponse.Info. (Accessed August 2018).

19 GFDRR (2017).
17 Kellett and Caravani (2013).

20 GFDRR (2017).

18 GFDRR (2017).

21 EM-DAT. Accessed August 2018.

12

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

frequent natural hazards, historically, causing average annual damages of US$54 million; large flood
episodes can cause over US$500 million in damages.
Earthquakes have caused the highest fatalities historically; since 1980 more than 10,000 people have been
killed due to earthquakes. Droughts have affected
6.5 million people since 2000. An extreme drought
could cause an estimated US$3 billion in agriculturallosses and lead to severe food shortages across thecountry. Three million people are exposed to very highor high landslide hazard risk, and 2 million people areexposed to avalanches (Figure 13).

FIGURE 13 • Afghanistan Risk Summary

Climate change also poses a threat to Afghanistan’snatural resources. The vast majority of Afghans (approximately 80 percent) depend on natural resources fortheir livelihoods. Climate change and natural disasters,
therefore, significantly impact growth prospects. The
most obvious is the impacts of floods and droughts
on agricultural productivity and the transport network
supporting the agriculture sector.
Over the last 20 years, Afghanistan has received only
US$22 million in disaster risk reduction funding, while
having one the highest mortality risk ratings in theworld (Figure 14). Clearly, aid financing in the country
has had its challenges over these two decades, withconflict and a testing environment for aid actors, but
surely in the years since 2001 and with the subsequent
state-building efforts, more could have been set aside

Source: GFDRR (2017).

to reduce disaster risk. In 2010 alone, more than
US$6.7 billion was spent in Afghanistan in total aid
just by donors reporting to the OECD Development
Assistance Committee.22
22 Kellett and Caravani (2013).

13

3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HYDROMET HAZARDSFIGURE 14 • Financing for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Mortality Risk Index, 1991–2010(volumes, US$ millions)
Multiple Mortality
Risk Index
Bangladesh
9Myanmar
India
China
Indonesia
Colombia
8
IranAfghanistan
GuatemalaPeru
Philippines
Pakistan
Romania
7
Costa Rica
Algeria
Dominican RepublicTurkeyCongo, Dem Rep.
Albania
Viet Nam
El Salvador
Ecuador
Chile
6
Sierra Leone
Ethiopia
Cambodia
UgandaHaiti
Papua New Guinea
MexicoNepal
Argentina
5
Malawi
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Sri Lanka
BrazilCameroon
MoroccoLebanon
4
Yemen
Benin
Tunisia
Eritrea
Burkina Faso
ZambiaNiger
South Africa
Trinidad and Tobago
Jordan3
Palestinian Occ. Territories 2
1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
Total DRR

15



4. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDSFOR WEATHER, CLIMATE,
AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES

N

ational Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs) are public agencies mandated toprovide public meteorological and hydrologicalinformation and warning services, although some may
also provide commercial services. Similarly, National
Hydrological Services (NHSs) are national public agencies mandated to provide basic hydrological information
and warning services to the government, the public,
and the private sector, in support of protecting lives
and livelihoods. NHSs aim to fulfil the state and public
need for robust water monitoring, data management
and prediction, providing authoritative and actionable information on hydrometeorological trends andextremes. NHSs also deliver socioeconomic benefits
through improved water resources management anddisaster risk management.

The result of a quick hydromet end-user survey
shows that the following are the most demandedhydrometeorological (hydromet) data, products, andinformation. Data include snow, rain, temperature,
relative humidity, evaporation, river stage/discharge,
and satellite data. Products and information include
weather forecasts, climate change projections, flood
forecasts, hydromet-related early warnings, drought
prediction, flood hazard maps, and extreme temperature prediction. In addition, avalanche forecasts,
avalanche hazard maps, landslide forecasts, landslide
hazard maps, pest and disease outbreak maps, desertification hazard maps, lightning advisory, forest fireadvisory, and some aviation weather services (e.g.,
Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET) and
Significant Weather (SIGWEX) reports) are demanded
but currently not available (Table 2).

Table 1 captures the socioeconomic sectors whose
outputs are sensitive to weather and climate conditions.
TABLE 1 • Disaster Risk Management and Weather-Sensitive Socioeconomic Sectors Requiring Hydromet
Information
1. Disaster risk management (floods, avalanches, landslides, drought,
extreme temperatures, pest and disease outbreaks)
2. Water resources management
3. Irrigated agriculture
4. Rain-fed agriculture
5. Climate resilience and adaptation
6. Energy planning, development, and management
7. Watershed management
8. Environment management
9. Surface water quality management and water pollution control
10. Desertification
11. Forestry
Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

12. Groundwater management
13. Health
14. Insurance
15. Land transportation
16. Aviation
17. Construction
18. Land use and planning
19. Media
20. Education
21. Mining
22. Regional and international cooperation
23. Research and development

16

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

TABLE 2 • Hydromet and EW Products and Services Demanded but Not Available23
1. Early warning system and services
2. Flood forecasts
3. Flood hazard maps
4. Drought forecasts
5. Drought hazard maps
6. Avalanche forecasts
7. Avalanche hazard maps
8. Landslide forecasts

Three-quarters of respondents were not satisfied withthe current services/data provision. This low level ofsatisfaction can be attributed largely to two factors:••

The existing hydromet system does not provide therequired data to produce user-needed products
and services.

9. Landslide hazard maps
10. Extreme temperature hazard information
11. Pest and disease outbreak maps
12. Desertification hazard maps
13. Lightning advisory
14. Forest fire advisory
15. SIGMET reports
16. SIGWEX charts

respective application areas, or how to apply suchinformation. Moreover, there is no system/platform
for users to communicate their needs to the hydromet
agencies (i.e., service providers). 23
The overall level of user satisfaction with the data andproducts needs to be significantly improved.

Hydomet agencies have low capacity to generate
products and to deliver services.

Most of the hydromet end-users do not fully understand what data and information they need for their

23 Ibid.

17

5. INSTITUTIONAL AND
ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS

5.1 A Brief History of the
Afghanistan Meteorological
Department
Meteorology has been a part of the Afghan government for more than six decades. The Afghanistan
Meteorological Authority was established in 1955
under the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation.
With the creation of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation
Authority (ACAA) in 2013, the name was changed to
the Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD),and it functions as part of the ACAA. AMD is one of
the most critical and important departments of ACAA
and is responsible for the provision of nationwide
meteorological services, including: monitoring weather
and collecting data; providing forecasts and early warnings; archiving and providing climate data; providing
public weather services; and providing meteorologicalservices for agriculture and transportation (including
civil aviation).
The intervening war years, however, delivered setbacks
to meteorological services in the country. The Taliban
believe weather forecasting is a form of sorcery andban it; in 1996, Taliban forces sacked the meteorology
office, ruining equipment and destroying over 100 years
of weather records. The civil war and its aftermath led
to degradation of traditional observation networks,
prevalence of outdated and inefficient technologies,
and lack of modern instruments and ICT. The absenceof forecasts and weather information reversed years ofdevelopment gains in farming and civil aviation operations.
As a result, AMD makes limited use of numerical weather
prediction (NWP), which is the forecasting tool widelyused by National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs) to produce basic public forecasts.
It has no technical means to run forecasts with lessthan six hours lead time (nowcasting), which areparticularly important for quick onset severe hazards
such as flash floods. AMD has no ability to produce
seasonal outlooks, which are intrinsic to agriculture
and water resources management planning and toclimate projection. The current number of forecasters
is too low and their capability insufficient to provide
operational, 24/7 forecasting services, and to develop
and test new products. In Afghanistan, at least fiveobservers and a team leader are required to run a 24/7
shift at international airports, while for forecasting
and guidance, a team of one manager and at least ten
forecasters is required to run two 24/7 shifts at the
AMD headquarters.
AMD has 140 staff, 75 of whom work in remote locationsin 28 stations. Three of the staff have a master’s degree,
28 have a bachelor’s degree, 33 have a two-year degreeand 37 have a technical school degree. The staff is distributed as follows: 33 forecasters at the forecast division in
Kabul, 15 at the executive management, 9 at the researchdivision, 22 at the installation division, 9 at observation
network division, and 52 in stations. Four forecasters
and six observers in Hamid Karzai International Airport
are working parallel with Operation Resolute Support24
staff to provide aviation meteorology services, but inother international airports NATO-RS Met units cover
the needs. By 2021, AMD plans to have 92 observers,
24 forecasters, 14 maintenance and installation technicians, 32 aviation observers, 18 aviation forecasters, 6 IT
specialists, and 10 staff for external relations, finance,
agrometeorology, and hydrometeorology.

24 Operation Resolute Support is a NATO-led, noncombat mission
to train, advise, and assist the Afghan National Defense andSecurity Forces (ANDSF). It was launched on January 1, 2015, andcurrently comprises around 16,000 personnel from 41 NATO allies
and partners. NATO-RS operates with one “hub” (Kabul/Bagram)and four “spokes” (Mazar-e-Sharif in the north, Herat in the west,
Kandahar in the south, and Laghman in the east). https://rs.nato.int/about-us/mission.aspx

18

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 15 • Proposed Structure of Afghanistan Meteorological Department
Director of AMD

Observation
BranchData
Processing
and TeleCommunication
BranchForecasting
BranchMeteorological
Instruments
BranchResearch
BranchAdministration
BranchRemote Offices
BranchSynopic
Observation
Division

IT and TeleCommunication
Division

Weather
Analyses andForecasting
Division

Hydrometeorology
Division

Operation and
MaintenanceInternational
Relations
Division

Aeronautical
Meteorology
Division

Aeronautical
Meteorology
Observation
Division

Data
Processing andManagement
Division

Nowcasting
Division

ClimateDivision

Calibration
Division

Human
Resources
Division

RemoteMeteorology
Offices
Division

Agricultural
Meteorology
Division

Finance
Division

Press andPublicRelations
Division

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016a).

AMD’s current five branches are: Executive Management, Forecasting, Observation Network, Meteorology
Research and Installation. The proposed structure of
AMD Under the ACAA-AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21,
there would be seven branches: Observation, Data
Processing and Telecommunication, Forecasting,Research, Meteorological Instruments, Remote Offices
and Administration (Figure 15).
There is no legislative act regulating meteorology.
According to the ACAA-AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21,
AMD is Afghanistan’s only recognized, responsible, andauthorized agency for the provision of the meteorological operations, services, and information. However,
government agencies operate parallel in situ observation networks and disseminate information.
The same Strategic Plan states the Vision of AMD as:“Covering Afghanistan’s public weather service needs
by establishing a competent meteorology servicealigned with the WMO standards, both for strengthening hydrometeorological disaster resilience of thecountry and answering the national and international
stakeholder needs.”
The Mission of AMD is stated as: “Providing nationwide
meteorological services; making weather observations;providing forecasts and early warnings; providing climatological data, archive data; communicating these to the
public; providing meteorological needs of Afghanistan
for agriculture, transportation, civil aviation for decision
makers, user communities, and all related sectors.”
AMD’s mandate is to provide observational data
and forecast products to support all activities in the
country—among others, transportation (including civil
aviation), agriculture, business, urban and rural life,and social and cultural activities. Further, the National
Flood Policy and Strategy (2011) designates AMD as
the sole agency responsible for flash flood forecasting.

19

5. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSISThe improvement of AMD meteorological services
is mainly supported by a project-based budget. The
ACAA budget increased from US$40 million in 2016
to US$60 million in 2017 and is expected to increasein the coming years if aviation meteorological services
improve. The ACAA budget for 2018 is US$100 million,
dedicated mainly to developing infrastructure (withsalaries representing around US$6 million). No specificdata have been provided about the AMD annual budget.
Operating and maintenance (O&M) costs pose a major
concern for the AMD’s sustainability. Aeronauticalmeteorological services are expected to provide asubstantive income for AMD, and potentially could
finance O&M expenses. Currently, these are borne by
the ACAA national budget.

5.2 A Brief Historyof the Water Resources
Management Department
Hydrological data collection and analysis started in
Afghanistan in 1946 with the installation of hydrometricstations in Helmand River Basin. The hydrometricnetwork expanded rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s,
reaching a peak of 150 in 1980. Network operations
stopped between the late 1980s and 2003. With thesupport of the World Bank Emergency Irrigation

Rehabilitation Project and the subsequent Irrigation
Restoration and Development Project, hydrologicalmonitoring has been strengthened since 2008 (Figure16). Today, water yearbooks of 148 stations are available at the Water Resources Management Department(WRD) of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW).
MEW in its present form was established in December
2004, with the splitting of responsibilities previously
held by the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Resources
and Environment and the merging of energy andwater to form the Ministry of Energy and Water. The
Water Law of Afghanistan (2009) and Water Resource
Management Strategy (2007) define the ministry’sroles, responsibilities, and vision and designate it
as the country’s National Hydrological Service (seeSection 6.1.4).
WRD has recruited young university graduates, helping to establish a strong nucleus of well-educatedstaff for data management, analysis, and modeling. In
addition, WRD has sent some of the new recruits forpost-graduate degrees in hydrology, water resources,
and climate change. According to WRD’s organizational
chart (Figure 17), there are three divisions: hydrology,
meteorology, and flood and drought forecasting. The
organizational chart does not show the subunits, if any,in each division. WRD is planning a restructuring in thenear future to reflect the evolving business priorities.

FIGURE 16 • Historical Trend for Hydrometric Active Stations in Afghanistan
Hydrometric Monitoring Stations (MEW)
160

150

140

128

129

127

125

2013

2014

2015

2016

116

120
Number of Stations

127
106

100
80

65

60
40

29

20
0

2
1946

7
1950

1960

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

1970

1980

0

0

2

1990

2000

2004

2008

2009

2012

20

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 17 • Organizational Structure of the Water Resources Department

Water Resources Department

Hydrology Division

Hydrology
SectionHydrometery
SectionFlood and Drought
Forecasting Division

Meteorology Division

Modeling
SectionHydrogeology
SectionMeteorology
SectionSnow Survey
SectionWRD Data Analysis Team

Kabul River
Basin

North RiverBasin

Panj-e-Amo
River Basin

Hartrud Murghab
River Basin

Helmand
River Basin

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b).

Data for the WRD-MEW annual budget is not directly
available, but budget information for associatedprojects is available. In 2011, the World Bank Groupapproved a US$97.8 million grant for the Irrigation
Rehabilitation and Development Project (IRDP) tosupport the government of Afghanistan's continuing
efforts to rehabilitate irrigation systems across thecountry, with the aim of increasing agricultural production. The grant had a hydromet component worth
US$8.2 million, mainly for supporting the modernizationof observation equipment. In 2016, the World Bank
Group approved additional financing and revamped
the hydromet component (US$28.9 million) to focus
more on developing and delivering services.
WRD-MEW operates 125 hydrological stations and
56 automatic weather stations (AWSs), of which 30 stations also have snow-monitoring capability. Discussions
are ongoing to transfer the 26 non–snow-monitoring
AWSs to AMD (and to include WRD technical support
during the transfer). Security concerns prevented WRDfrom installing 47 new hydrological stations, but it isplanning to install 22 of these stations in 2018/19 andthe rest as/when the security situation improves.
WRD-MEW has 409 staff distributed among five river
basins, mainly composed of technical field observers
and guards for the hydrological, AWS, and snow
stations. Only four of the 41 hydrologists have an
educational background in hydrology; the remaining
37 acquired their skills and knowledge on the job. The
same applies to the five climatologists. WRD’s main
office in Kabul has 57 staff covering 11 job categories,of which 34 are technicians, hydrologists, or managers. The six Water Quality Laboratory employees
are only involved in sediment sampling, testing, andanalysis. IRDP is currently financing O&M, for which
a formal agreement was signed with the equipmentvendor. But project-financed O&M poses a challenge
for WRD-MEW’s sustainability. Improved hydropower
generation is expected to provide substantial income
for WRD-MEW, and potentially could finance hydromet
O&M services and expedite training of their staff toreduce O&M costs.

21

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD,WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

M

odernizing a National Meteorological andHydrological Service (NMHS) and a National
Hydrological Service (NHS) is highly complex
and costly. In Afghanistan, the division of responsibilities(i.e., AMD is responsible for flash flood forecasting and
WRD-MEW is responsible for all other water-related
services and studies and is the NHS) compounds thecomplexity. Therefore, a structured and long-term plan
based on the needs of the public and the end-usercommunity is highly recommended.

two organizations. A typical NMHS is comprised of a“system of systems” as shown in Figure 18. This generic
illustration of a weather, climate, or hydrological systemof systems can be used to identify the current statusof any NMHS and to visualize investments requiredcomponent-by-component in each system to achievea particular level of improvement. The complexity ofeach system and its subsystems varies depending on
the size, level of development, and resources of anindividual NMHS.

The first step in the development of such a plan is
to study and analyze the systems comprising the

The system-of-system’s building blocks are interdependent. The first requirement is staff with the

FIGURE 18 • Generic System of Systems for a Modern NMHS
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems

Surface obs systems

Modeling systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system

Limited area model
systemNowcasting system

Radar system

Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

Hydro modelingsystems

ITC systems
Data comms
systems

Quality management systems
Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Computing hardware
and software systems
Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Service delivery systems
Public weather andhydro services system
G2G disastermanagement
service system

Very short-range
forecasting system

G2G agriculture
service system

Short-range
forecasting system

G2G water andpower management
services system

Medium-range
forecasting system
Long-range
forecasting system

Technology infusion systems

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems

Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met and hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: Dark Teal: production systems; Green: delivery systems; Cyan: enabling systems; Dark Green: capacity building (internal and external);
Broken boxes: either external or mix of internal and external systems; Solid boxes: internal NMHS systems; G2G: Government to Government;
G2B: Government to Business.

22

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 19 • System-of-Systems Concept of Operational Flood Forecasting by an NHS
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems

Surface obs systems

Radar system

Modeling systems

Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Public hydrologicalservices system

Severe hydro hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system /flash flood guidanceG2G disastermanagement
service system

Very short-range flood
forecasting system

G2G agriculture
service system

Short-range flood
forecasting system

G2G water andpower management
services system

Limited area model
systemHydro modelingsystems

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems

Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

Medium-range flood
forecasting system

ITC systems
Data comms
systems

Quality management systems

Service delivery systems

Global NWP systems

Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Computing hardware
and software systems
Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Long-range flood
forecasting system

Technology infusion systems

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).

capacity to understand and operate a particular system.
This Road Map employs a system-of-systems approachto arrive at three possible scenarios for modernizing
AMD and WRD-MEW.
The operational system of an NHS for the productionof flood forecasts is basically similar to that of a NMHS
in that production and delivery systems need to bein place supported by quality management and ICT
systems, with a fundamental basic block of capacity
building systems. Figure 19 presents the system-ofsystems concept within WRD-MEW. Subtle differences
between an NMHS and an NHS responsible for flood
forecasting are in the access to certain observations
data or modeling capabilities. In most countries where
responsibilities for weather and flood forecasting residein different organizations, access to critical data suchas radar data are granted to the agency responsible forflood forecasting. Similarly, meteorological forecasts
based on global, regional, and locally run models
provide an input to flood forecasting models. These
subtleties are illustrated in Figure 20 by the solid or
broken lines for various subsystems. In a number ofcountries, the two agencies work closely together,sometimes colocated in one or the other organization
to produce flood forecasts and warnings. In such cases,
cross-training of meteorologists and hydrologists ineach other’s field of expertise is a common practice.

6.1 Service Delivery Systems
A pervasive culture shift is needed for Afghanistan’shydromet and early warning services. To this end, amatrix was devised to evaluate the country’s current
service delivery capacity. It assesses institutional
capacity on four levels: none, low, medium, and high.
There is no institutional capacity to analyze, forecast,and develop warning messages for floods and flash
floods, landslides, avalanches, and pest and disease
control. There is low to medium capacity to observe,
detect, and monitor these hazards, given the current
network of observing stations. As for heat and cold
waves and drought, institutional abilities range from

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 20 • Avalanche Risk Impact

Sources: Afghanistan Spatial Data Center; Water for Life Solutions (2017).
Note: Example of people at risk for avalanche threat in Afghanistan for April 22, 2017, at 11:30 pm local time, based on the (then) current snow
conditions.

nonexistent for analysis, forecasting, and developing
warning messages to medium for observation, detection, and monitoring. Current capacities for drought
were assessed as low for all early warning stages,
attributable primarily to FEWS NET25 and its contribution to periodic updates; this information is publicly
available. The FEWS NET information, however, is too
general and covers too large of a geographical area tobe useful. More location specific and higher resolution
information is needed to allow better planning anddecision making [by the Afghanistan National Disaster
Management Authority (ADMA)].
Community-level efforts in establishing early warning
systems and services or assessing disaster risk exist.
For example, the ICIMOD’s Community-Based Flood
Early Warning System (CBFEWS) initiative relies ona group of people to disseminate early warnings in
the community. However, it should be assessed towhat extent CBFEWS is fully operational in the communities in which it has been set up. Likewise, it is notclear where the warnings will originate, whether from
25 The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is aleading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. It
was created by USAID in 1985 in partnership with NASA, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USDA, and
USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica,
and currently provides evidence-based analysis for 34 countries
including Afghanistan.

their own operation, or from other sources. Anotherinitiative, the USAID-funded Afghanistan Spatial Data
Center, provides an online portal with the following
information: population estimates at the village levelfor flood and avalanche risk; Global System for Mobile
Communication (GSM) coverage; accessibility to thenearest hospitals; and parameters for flood and flash
flood risks, snow cover and depth, and earthquakes.
Figure 20 presents an example of the product theAfghanistan Spatial Data Center (ASDC) portal provides, in this case, the number of people who were at
risk for avalanche threat in April 2017.
The portal requires registration, and the forecasts are
based on uncalibrated models, which make the results
less reliable. Nevertheless, the website is an excellent
EWS model.

6.1.1 PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES SYSTEM
The provision of public weather services (PWS) by
AMD is modest. AMD’s new website (http://www.amd.gov.af/) is the most widely used source of PWS
information. It gives the user community access to athree-day forecast for a number of cities and severe
weather warnings for provinces. While the Common
Alerting Protocol (CAP) has been installed at AMD, it

23

24

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

is not yet operational for all hazards and all mediaalerting functions (i.e., radio, television, website, Short
Message Service [SMS], mobile phones, sirens andloudspeakers).
AMD has developed a presence on social media
and created a Facebook account, which has proved
popular and has a feedback function. SMS messages
are rarely used. No weather applications are developed
for mobile and smart phone platforms. Similarly, AMD
conducts no outreach or public education activities.
AMD does not translate/interpret the forecasts into aform to assist daily decision making by users, and noinformation is produced on the possible impacts ofhazards. Assistance and guidance in developing PWS
is required, including training in dissemination andcommunication, user consultation, and user feedback.
AMD’s five-year strategic plan envisions providing
Afghanistan’s PWS needs by establishing a competent meteorological service aligned with the World
Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) standards,
both for strengthening hydrometeorological disaster
resilience of the country and responding to national
and international stakeholder needs. Through thisstrategic plan, AMD aims to provide nationwide
meteorological services, forecasts, and early warnings,
and to communicate these to the public to meet themeteorological needs of Afghan user communities.

6.1.2 DISASTER MANAGEMENTSERVICES SYSTEM
Early warning services do not exist in Afghanistan. The
ministries, departments and agencies have vestigesof the required expertise, but institutional roles andresponsibilities have not been mapped to develop abasic whole-of-government capacity. The needs ofthe public for services are not well-understood by
the service providers and the end-users themselves
have little or no knowledge of (and thus capacity to
demand for) a modern hydromet and early warning
system. Thus, an urgent component is building thecapacity and capabilities of the end-user community.
By developing the understanding of hydromet data andproducts, the end-user community can benefit fromhydromet services for disaster risk reduction. Reducing
the risks of disasters can improve the productivity ofsocioeconomic sectors and raise wellbeing.

ANDMA has drafted (and is awaiting approval of)a strategic framework to implement activities, andespecially those related to early warnings. ANDMA andAMD also are developing an early warning communication scheme, whereby AMD issues warnings that arecommunicated with the ANDMA central office in Kabul.
The information cascades to the High Commissionof Disaster Management and provincial offices, local
authorities and small public groups, the local radio andphone operators and finally to the end-users who are
instructed to take precautions.
The proposed scheme is sound and should serve as atemplate for all other disaster warnings, particularly
for floods, flash floods and avalanches. However, it isessential to thoroughly test and validate the scheme
before operationalization, particularly the last step,
where the end-users are notified to ensure that they
have received and understand the messages andknow what precautions to take. The warnings must
be received quickly enough to allow the end-users
sufficient time to take the required actions to savetheir lives and property.
Adopting CAP allows agencies to issue alerts and warnings without worrying about the details of the ultimate
dissemination mechanism used by the mandated EWS
agency in Afghanistan. CAP has been installed at
AMD (not operational yet); it still has to be installedat ANDMA and WRD-MEW.
Engaging local organizations (e.g., religious leadersand civil society) and building on existing structures
can help ensure “last mile connectivity.” For example,
there are more than 35,000 Community Development
Councils across the country that can disseminate early
warning for disaster mitigation. The Councils alsooffer an important advantage by providing face-toface communication, which is especially valuable inissuing instructions of where to seek shelter during
disasters. Possible options for last-mile connectivity
techniques include broadcast radio and TV and SMS
messages to cellular phones. That may work as longas the cellular network has coverage over the areas
where people may be working in the fields, and theparticular hazard has not affected the cell phone orelectricity supply. The use of sirens or loudspeakers,
located in strategic points, provides additional alerting methods.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

Afghanistan should streamline the dissemination of early
warnings to ensure that all agencies communicate in atimely manner with the lead early warning agency andthat warning messages reach users without alteration.
Each agency should have its own service delivery systemfor data and information products. Although multiple
dissemination channels are recommended, it would
be advisable to route all agencies’ warning messages
through a single delivery mechanism. In complement,each institution should have its own method of dissemination (e.g., posting the warnings—and any additional
explanations—on its website). That way, the public
becomes active consumers of the warnings, knowing
where to look for and how to use the information. Thisis the current practice at AMD and, as stated above, theAMD website is the most used public service.

6.1.3 AVIATION SERVICES SYSTEM
The aviation reports generated by Operation Resolute
Support (ORS) for the Meteorological Terminal Air
Report (METAR), Aviation Special Weather Report(SPECI) and Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) meetinternational standards. These reports are not available
for all civilian airports in Afghanistan, tamping down
their user satisfaction to 25 percent. Five sites (Kabul,
Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Jalalabad) produce
globally available METAR observations taken by ORS.
AMD field meteorologists at the various airports areapproaching the point where they can produce METAR
and SPECI reports, despite their limited technical andfinancial resources.
AMD has indicated that their aviation stations needrehabilitation or upgrading. Its five-year strategic plancalls for the installation of seven aviation AWSs andfor the training of 32 aviation observers to augment
observations at the four international airports (Kabul,
Herat, Kandahar, and Mazar-i-Sharif). The planned
handover of responsibilities from ORS to AMD at theend of 2016 did not occur and has been postponed,
despite training efforts that resulted in AMD forecasters
producing an unsupervised TAF for Kabul International
Airport. AMD requires additional training on basic
topics (e.g., properly coding weather observations)
before the turnover can take place.
AMD needs capacity building in general, with appropriate hardware and software to improve their current

meteorological aviation reports, to expand service
to other locations, and to be able to produce otherreports such as the TAFs for additional sites, Pilot
Reports (PIREP) and en route aviation advisories suchas Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET).

6.1.4 WATER MANAGEMENT AND FLOODFORECASTING SERVICES SYSTEMA National Hydrological Service (NHS) is an institution
whose core business is the provision of information
to decision makers about the water (or hydrological)
cycle and the status and trends of a country’s water
resources. Most typically, this focuses on assessing
water resources, including drought monitoring andoutlooks and flood forecasting and warnings. In mostcountries, NHS functions are dispersed among related
water agencies.26 Typically, the agencies have distinct
functions but can have overlapping capabilities (e.g.,modeling, researching, and developing hydrologicalmethodologies). Such information may be required,among others, for the following purposes:•

Assessing the status of a country’s water resources(i.e., quantity, quality, and distribution in time andspace), the potential for water-related development and the resource’s ability to meet actual orforeseeable demand;•

Planning, designing, and operating water projects;•

Assessing the environmental, economic, and social
impacts of existing and proposed water resourcesmanagement practices and planning sound management strategies;•

Providing security for people and property against
water-related hazards, particularly floods anddroughts;•

Allocating water among competing users, bothwithin the country and across borders; and•Meeting regulatory requirements.27

In Afghanistan, WRD-MEW (http://wrd-mew.gov.af/
index.php) is the designated National Hydrological
Service (NHS) and operates in accordance with theWater Law of Afghanistan (2009), which enforces
26 WMO (2006).
27 WMO and UNESCO (1991).

25

26

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

the principles of Article 9 of the Constitution for the
purpose of conservation, equitable distribution, andthe efficient and sustainable use of water resources,
to strengthen the national economy and secure therights of the water users. The law regulates ownership,
fees, rights, permits, and usage with respect to waterand covers both surface and groundwater for domestic
and agricultural use. The law dictates that the planning,
management, and development of water resources is
the responsibility of MEW in cooperation with otherrelevant line ministries and institutions. Further, MEW
is responsible for water infrastructure; management
and planning for the transboundary waters; collection,
analysis and evaluation of hydrological data for surface
water; water balance monitoring and modeling; snow
and glacier survey and analysis; and forecasting andwarning for floods and droughts.
Other ministries and agencies also have mandates underthe 2009 Water Law of Afghanistan. The Ministry ofMines and Petroleum is responsible for assessing andprotecting groundwater. The National Environmental
Protection Agency is responsible for protecting andcontrolling surface water. Water use for agriculture
and irrigation is the responsibility of the Ministry ofAgriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, while the provision of drinking water supply and sewage treatment
systems is the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural
Rehabilitation and Development.
The Water Resource Management Sector Strategy(2007) lays out a vision to manage Afghanistan’s
water resources to reduce poverty, increase sustainable economic and social development, improve thequality of life for all Afghans, and ensure an adequate
supply of water for future generations. Of the sevenstrategic goals, protection from effects of droughts
and floods is one. For flood mitigation management,
the strategy indicates nonstructural measures such as
establishing flood warning and preparedness; while fordrought management, the strategy specifies the needto develop extensive expertise in weather forecasting
techniques in addition to the construction of water
storage reservoirs. Two of the strategy’s objectives
are the installation and operation of a hydrometricnetwork with proper data collection and processing andthe effective dissemination of information to users forbasin water allocation/distribution planning. Anotherobjective outlines the need for operational information
systems to predict droughts and to forecast floods andfunctional flood management systems in all river basins.

6.1.5 AGRICULTURAL SERVICES SYSTEM
Afghanistan is the origins of many agricultural products(e.g., varieties of cereal, breeds of sheep and goats,
and forest products). Agriculture dominates the Afghan
economy, contributing an estimated 31 percent of GDP(2010/11) and providing employment and livelihoods
for about 80 percent of the population (Figure 21).
However, 25 years of war and civil conflict and prolonged droughts have seriously affected Afghanistan’s
agriculture sector.
Developing the agriculture sector is critical for economic growth. The National Agricultural Development Framework is a comprehensive development

FIGURE 21 • Agriculture, Industry, and Services in Afghanistan, 2010/11
Employment %

GDP %

10
10

31
43
80

Agriculture
Industry
Services

Revenue streams (%): 31% wheat, 1% wage, 1% renting, 4% livestock
Source: Met Office (2012).

26

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

blueprint for the agriculture sector. It identifies priorities
for investment, emphasizing commercial, marketorientated agriculture. Income generation in thehigh-value perennial horticulture sector is essential
to solve macroeconomic problems and to build rural
prosperity and reduce poverty.
The framework projects perennial horticulture toaccount for one-third of all agricultural growth. Perennial crops often require a more educated and controlled
approach to sustainably contribute to the economy, andthis is especially valid given Afghanistan’s short- andlong-term weather conditions. Close coordination andintegration among AMD, MAIL, and MRRD can enhance
effective management of natural resources, research,and extension services (advice) and communicate key
agricultural messages through farmer associations.
A simplified agricultural cycle in Afghanistan includes
two wheat cycles. Northern Afghanistan is highly dependent on rain-fed crops whereas southern Afghanistan
is highly dependent on snowmelt-fed irrigation and, inturn, the winter rainfall/snowfall over the Hindu Kush.
The country has favorable weather conditions for certain
high-value crops. While water resource management
programs, including dams, have improved the annual
access to and regularity of water supply, they have
limited effectiveness against moderate to substantial
meteorological droughts, particularly in the southwest.
Afghanistan can experience extensive subzero conditions across the country during winter months. Theintermittent winter frosts (typically overnight) in thewest and southwest regions can significantly impact
wheat and preclude more diverse horticulture to fueleconomic growth. In spring, late frosts mainly affectfruit production, while rising temperatures can cause
flooding that increases the damage and loss vulnerability of crops. An approach to such variable conditions
that incorporates advice from AMD is necessary.
Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate,making agriculture the most climate-sensitive of all
economic sectors. Some provinces are consideredespecially vulnerable because of a dependence onrain-fed agriculture, widespread poverty, and limited
resources to invest in adaptation and risk reduction.
The risks of climate change for the agricultural sectorin Afghanistan are immediate and important because

most of the rural population depends directly or
indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods.
The impact of weather on the success of the Agricultural
Development Framework and on long-term economic
growth and food security through agriculture is substantial. In the winter of 2004/05 (after a considerable
drought), the above-normal, well-distributed precipitation and cold temperatures led to snow accumulations
and significant winter snowpack. These conditions
contributed to a robust wheat harvest in 2005 andended a prolonged drought. The 2005 wheat harvest of
4.3 million tons was up 43.4 percent from 2004’s poor
harvest of 2.3 million tons. Improved pest management
also contributed to the bumper 2005 wheat crop.
It is essential to curb water consumption in agriculture
while simultaneously increasing food production. Thisrequires a global and sustainable management of thewater cycle locally and regionally, which requires anunderstanding of weather and seasonality through theability to monitor and estimate changes. Crop harvests
vary dramatically from year-to-year depending on
the weather with variable mean annual precipitation.
Rangelands are essential for Kuchi pastoralists (estimated to comprise 20 percent of the rural population)and for a large part of the settled population who derive
their income from rearing animals and employment in
the livestock industry. Over the last 30 years, drought
effects have substantially reduced the livestock population in Afghanistan: there were 30 million sheep/goatand 4 million cattle before the 1999–2004 drought
and 16 million sheep/goat and 3.7 million after it. Blue
tongue disease is prevalent across much of Afghanistan;its spread is largely due to weather patterns carrying
the disease vectors from one area to another. Changes
in vegetation and its productivity as well as seasonalvariability in rain, snow, and the vegetation period
have forced nomadic agriculture to higher rangelands,
thus increasing pressure on the alpine ecosystems. A
developed Afghan meteorological service can monitor
weather/seasonal impacts on livestock and deliver
warnings through MAIL.
Crop production is highly dependent on weather conditions and annual precipitation but has been graduallyrising over time. Agricultural output, especially of
cereals, has increased significantly in recent years but

27

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

growth is still highly variable from year to year. A large
proportion of the population remains food insecure,especially in years of poor harvest or high prices. Food
security worsened in 2008. The World Food Programme
estimated that, in 2008, 35 percent of households
were not meeting their daily calorific requirements,
5 percent more than in 2005. While overall growth has
been strong, there is so far no real evidence that therate of growth in agriculture is accelerating. It remains
dependent on annual weather variations. In more recent
years, further development of irrigation has led to thegreatest increase in wheat yield compared to those
agricultural areas that are chiefly rain fed.

6.2 Quality Management Systems

Agriculturally relevant weather forecasts can yield
immediate benefits and facilitate the adaptation of farming practices to the local context. Farmers can benefit
from better local hydrometeorological information andservices, particularly for short-term temperature andprecipitation forecasts. In addition, tailored meteorological advice through MAIL and its extension agent scheme
can contribute to food security through preemptive
agricultural action—for example, a better choice of crops
before a drought period and irrigation management.28

A quality management system (QMS) is defined as theorganizational structures, procedures, processes, andresources needed to develop and successfully manage
the organization’s delivery of products and services.29
Although some quality control of data is done by theobservers and by the METCAP system, no standard
and systematic control is performed and no QMS exists
at AMD. WRD-MEW has developed a quality control
and data processing system for improving hydromet
data quality through the use of the AQUARIUS system.
The introduction of a QMS in AMD can support thecontinual enhancement of its products and services
focusing on quality control, quality assurance, andquality improvement. QMS is implemented by most
NMHSs in the provision of services to the aviation
sector in compliance with the requirements of theInternational Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The
implementation of QMS as part of the strategy tomodernize the AMD can positively impact the qualityof services and management practices as well as theuser/stakeholder perception.

6.1.6 CLIMATE SERVICES SYSTEM

6.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Afghanistan’s natural topography produces very large
spatial variation in temperature and precipitation.
These large variations underscore the need to develop
and improve climate services for different users. Since
its establishment in the 1950s AMD was a capable
service—from its onset it began maintaining climate
records. Unfortunately, the tumultuous conflicts of the
1990s destroyed many of AMD’s capabilities, including
institutional knowledge, vital climatic records, and skill
sets. Climate records have been partially restored withsupport from WMO, but more comprehensive climate
information is required for planning purposes in many
sectors, including agriculture, water resources management, and disaster management, and for assessing
climate variations and change. It is necessary to develop
and set up a national framework for climate services
in line with the principles of the Global Framework for
Climate Services to facilitate planning in the relevant
sectors to improve food security and health outcomes
and to enhance water resource management.

According to the existing laws and strategic plans,
the institutional responsibilities for some of thedisaster risk management (DRM) and hydrometrelated areas (e.g., data collection and exchange andearly warning services) are not clear. Realizing theneed for a policy framework for sharing hydromet
data and information, a draft Policy Framework
on Hydrometeorological Data Sharing has been
prepared by WRD-MEW under Supreme Council ofLand, Water and Environment (SCoLWE). The main
purpose of this policy is to formulate an appropriate mechanism for properly accessing and sharingof hydrometeorological and hydrogeological data.
The policy will provide the groundwork for cooperation and coordination between data producing
organizations and data users. It also will facilitateease of access to data and information for national,
regional, and international institutions. It has been
proposed to widen the scope of this policy to also
include meteorological data produced by AMD and
to adopt it as a national policy for data sharing.

28 Ibid.

29 WMO (2013).

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERSBased on the organizational charts of WRD-MEW andAMD there is an overlap in meteorological monitoring,hydrometeorological services, and flood-forecasting
services. According to its strategy, AMD is mandatedby law to provide meteorological services, including
flash flood forecasting and aviation meteorologicalservices to the relevant sectors, as well as to the generalpublic. WRD-MEW is responsible for other types offlood forecasting in addition to hydrological monitoring. In addition, there is no clear understanding among
AMD, WRD-MEW, and MAIL on their respective roles
in rainfall and climate monitoring. The AMD proposedorganizational structure includes responsibilities
such as flash flood forecasting, hydrometeorology,
and agro-climatology that overlap with the current
responsibilities of WRD-MEW and MAIL. Defining
and streamlining the institutional responsibilities ofAMD, WRD-MEW, MAIL, ANDMA, and other relevant
stakeholders entails the establishment of a national
institutional framework for hydromet and EWS in
Afghanistan that defines the roles and responsibilities
for each institution from observation, data management, modeling, and forecasting to early warning andservice delivery.
The modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW as thetwo main service providers in Afghanistan shouldhave a twofold aim. First, the provision of weather,climate, and hydrological services, including national
observing systems, forecasting systems, warning
systems, and national climate services. Second, future
institutional development and the sustainability of any
proposed modernization projects, considering the newrequirements for weather, climate, and hydrologicalservices. An implementation plan supported by realistic
resource allocation involving all relevant ministries
and departments, stakeholders, and end-users should
also be developed. Currently, there is no user-driven,long-term national strategy for weather, climate, andhydrological services. The absence of such a strategy
is reflected in the ad hoc approach and proliferation of
independent observational networks and incomplete
coordination of activities related to weather, climate,and hydrology. Improving the legal and regulatory
framework, in line with other countries’ NMHSs, will
confirm and strengthen AMD’s responsibility and mandate for issuing warnings of meteorological (including
flash floods) hazards. Regulation will also codify the
responsibilities of other government agencies andorganizations, which are affected by meteorologicaland hydrological hazards, ensuring more timely andeffective responses that will help mitigate weatherrelated disasters.

6.2.2 OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMSThe operational management status of AMD, WRDMEW, and their main stakeholders (MAIL and ANDMA)
needs to be significantly strengthened in terms of hiringand retaining qualified staff, improving capacity building and professional development programs, offering
appropriate salaries and incentives, mainstreaming
gender and providing effective services. It is encouraging that WRD has taken steps in this direction. Overall,however, the current meteorological and hydrologicalservices in Afghanistan have limited capacity andcapability to provide quantitative information to guide
timely decision making.
The situation in Afghanistan is not unlike that in mostdeveloping countries that report inadequate staff
numbers and capacity in meteorology and hydrology.
This requires urgent attention, especially to establish
and maintain an appropriate cadre of professionals
in these fields. In almost all cases in the developingworld, the necessary institutions for meteorological andhydrological monitoring have been established, but the
professional depth and breadth of training and staffing
varies. The staff salaries of NMHSs and NHSs tend tobe low and noncompetitive, such that skilled and qualified staff often leave for better paying opportunities.
It is also essential that these organizations ensure thecontinuity of skills and timely replacement of retiring
highly specialized staff. Modernization efforts needto find ways to address these challenges. While many
NMHSs and NHSs are receiving funding to upgrade
their technology, they struggle to ensure sufficienthuman capacity to fully utilize new systems. In somecountries, these organizations and the academic sector
are not sufficiently engaged or there might not evenbe local universities offering education in disciplines
relevant to meteorological and hydrological services. In
both cases, the local talent pool remains constrained.
The present capability of AMD allows it to generate
weather forecasts for a few locations for three days.
There are no hydrological forecasts issued by MEW.
This does not respond to the needs of stakeholders
who require information for short-term operations as

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

well as medium to long-term planning. Meteorological and hydrological capacity in Afghanistan is being
developed on a project basis within different government organizations. The analysis of the AMD, MEW, andstakeholder (MAIL and ANDMA) operational systems
reveals low capacity, including: limited accessibilityof data and information to meet user needs; lack ofelectronic historical data; limited IT and data transmission infrastructure for the majority of data providers;limited capacity in data analysis, quality control,interpretation, modeling, forecasting, and productdevelopment; insufficient human resources both innumber and skills; lack of integration of meteorological,hydrological, and DRM services; lack of weather andhydromet hazard forecasting services; low capacity in
EWS and appropriate DRM despite the availability ofsome service delivery means (e.g., CDCs, radio, andtelephone); inadequate hydromet service delivery
system; and absence of effective communications
and engagements between the users and producersof hydromet data and products.

6.3 Capacity Building
Building capacity through training activities andcooperation with other WMO members to improve
the sustainability of the modernization of AMD and
WRD-MEW is indispensable. For AMD to be effective,
continued capacity development and access to newskills beyond those currently delivered by WMO for
new and existing staff are essential. Capacity building is the foundation block of any NMHS as shown in
Figure 17 of this Road Map.
A major challenge for AMD, WRD-MEW, and partners is
to create a professional meteorological and hydrological workforce. The conflicts of the past decades andlimited access to training opportunities, coupled with
rapid advances in hydrology, meteorology, information
technology, and meteorological and hydrological modeling have largely left the AMD and WRD-MEW staff
behind. A steady supply of meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, and related specialists with university
degrees to be further trained using tailored training
programs and developing their abilities to perform at
the required skill levels is needed to replace retiring
staff. It is essential to provide in-house courses to ensurethat as many of the staff as possible become familiar

with new meteorological and hydrological tools andsoftware in their own working environment, as well as
training at the regional or even international training
facilities. Areas where training is required at AMD and
MEW are included in Annex 1 to this Road Map. This
list may be further expanded as deemed necessary.
As discussed above, the role of local universities increating a talent pool for the country is critical. In
this regard, hydromet-related programs at Kabul
Polytechnic University and Kabul University need to
be further strengthened.
Educating end-users in the application of hydrometeorological products for decision making is also essential.
User interviews and survey results have demonstrated
the limitation in the users’ ability to understand, interpret,and use products and tools to benefit from hydromet
and early warning data and information provided by
the weather, climate, and hydrological services. User
education should be implemented to overcome thisgap. Educating the general public to better understandwarnings and probability forecasts in order to have more
adequate preparation and awareness is equally importantas part of the last mile service provision, especially forflooding, which is a major hydrometeorological threat in
Afghanistan. User education should include workshops,
the distribution of flyers, publications and public service
videos, and posting educational materials on the AMD
and WRD-MEW websites.

6.4 Monitoring and Observation
Systems
Meteorological and hydrological observations constitutethe first step in producing high-quality weather andflood forecasts with proper lead time, as well as providing baseline data for water resources management,
drought forecasting, and a long-term climate trend.
Depending on their purpose, stations record temperature, precipitation, pressure, humidity, evaporation,wind speed, solar radiation, soil moisture, snow cover
depth, and density, and hydrological regime parameters(water levels, discharges, and reservoir storages) as
well as agromet parameters (soil temperature and soil
moisture). Monitoring and observation systems consistof observation stations as well as data transmission,
telecommunication networks, and data processing andstorage systems, that is, data management systems.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

6.4.1 GLOBAL DATA SYSTEM

FIGURE 22 • AMD Meteorological Monitoring
Network

AMD has access to observation data from certain global
centers such as ECMWF and NWS/NOAA through the
METCAP+ system, which was developed by the Turkish
State Meteorological Service. AMD also has access tosatellite data via the EUMETCast system of Meteosat-8.
WRD-MEW has access to some global data.

6.4.2 NATIONAL DATA SYSTEMSIn addition to AMD, several other government organizations, notably WRD-MEW, MAIL, and MPW, collectvarious observation data through their own networks.
The status of the data collected by each organization
is described below.

Surface Meteorological Observations Network
Meteorological Stations (AMD): The meteorologicalobservation network has varied significantly since theestablishment of AMD in 1955. Between 1979 and 1990,
AMD had one of the most robust networks of surface
meteorological observations in the region. At one point,
there were as many as 70 synoptic (SYNOP) stations,
200 climate stations, 3 aeronautical (METAR) stations,and 32 agriculture (AGROMET) stations. In 1996, mostof the meteorological data and infrastructure of AMD
were destroyed. WMO recovered some of the data in
1998. The surface monitoring network operated by
AMD includes 28 synoptic stations, but the equipment
is mostly manual and outdated producing incomplete
and unreliable data (Figure 22).
AMD is in the process of restructuring and upgrading its operations and building the capacity of its
technical and management staff with support of
the USAID-WMO EWS Project. The establishment offive AWS and three manual synoptic stations by theend of 2017 was postponed to 2018. AMD provides
SYNOP observations to the Global Telecommunication
System (GTS) from six AWSs at Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz,
North-Salang, Herat, Bamiyan, and Kabul International
Airport. Data from five other stations are provided to
GTS on an irregular basis. The six AWSs are managed
on a five-year contractual basis, while the manual
stations are maintained by AMD. According to the
AMD five-year strategic plan, Afghanistan requires
around 50 SYNOP stations to adequately monitor theweather elements across the country. In addition to

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

the rehabilitation and expansion of its network, AMD
has made provisions in its five-year strategic plan
for assessing six AWSs currently operated by MEW
and MAIL, transforming them to SYNOP stations andintegrating them into the national AMD meteorologicalobservation network.
The AMD five-year plan envisages the addition of
more than 30 rainfall monitoring sites as part of the
expansion of their SYNOP station network and theiraviation observation network.

Photo 1: Manual Recording of Synoptic and METAR
Observations at Herat Station

Source: WMO (2016a).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

As described above, Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-iSharif, and Jalalabad produce METAR observations
taken by ORS. These observations are available globally.

TABLE 3 • Current Rainfall Monitoring Network
by Basin
Basin Area (km2)

Number of Stations

Panj-e-Amu

96,59986

Harirud-Murghab

77,59533

Helmand327,801

56

Kabul (Indus)

72,68592

Northern

70,91445

645,594

312

River Basin Name

AMD still requires additional basic training, such as
properly coding weather observations. AMD needs
capacity building in general, with appropriate hardware
and software to improve their current meteorologicalaviation reports, to expand aviation services to otherlocations in accordance with Afghanistan’s Civil Aviation Master Plan,30 and to be able to produce reports
such as TAFs for additional sites, Pilot Reports (PIREP)
and en route aviation advisories such as Significant
Meteorological Information (SIGMET).
Rain Gauges (AMD, MAIL, and MEW): The current
rainfall monitoring network comprises 312 active
rainfall stations (Table 3). They all include the MEWhydromet, climatological, and snow monitoring sites;

30 Met Office (2012).

FIGURE 23 • Precipitation Monitoring Network

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

Total

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

AMD meteorological stations and MAIL agrometeorological stations collect rainfall data. AMD operates
24 rain gauges, mainly manually, at their current
meteorological stations.
Figure 23 shows the locations of existing rain gauges.
Gaps are found particularly in the Helmand River Basin,
the northeastern part of the Panj-e-Amu River Basinand southeastern area of the Kabul Basin. Some of

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

these gaps are due to difficulties of access and/or
security issues.
Climate Stations (MAIL and MEW): The climate observing network in Afghanistan includes 26 AWSs and30 snow monitoring stations operated by MEW andnine automatic agroclimate stations operated by MAIL
(Figure 24).
As indicted earlier 26 AWS operated by MEW willbe transferred to AMD. Figure 25 shows the climate
network in Afghanistan.
The 26 climate stations established between 2010 and2016 by MEW are built around a portable automaticweather station system. These stations provide observation data on: air temperature, relative humidity, dew
point, sun hours, solar radiation, precipitation, windspeed, wind direction, gust speed, gust direction, andair pressure. A breakdown of the number of stations
currently located in each of the basins is provided inTable 4. Some of the climate observing network sites
could be upgraded to SYNOP sites. AMD is planning
to assess six climate stations currently operated by
MAIL and MEW for upgrade to SYNOP sites.
Snow Monitoring Stations (MEW): The 30 snow monitoring stations operated and maintained by MEW are
also portable automatic weather stations. The snow
stations collect the same data parameters as MEW’s

climate station, but they are also equipped with anadditional snow depth sensor. The current station
coverage indicates that some parts of Afghanistan
are well covered with snow observational sites, whileother regions such as the northeast and west central
higher elevation areas are sparsely covered (Figure 26).
Table 5 provides a breakdown of the snow stations foreach basin. These stations were established between
2011 and 2016. In addition, AMD’s current and planned
SYNOP and METAR reporting stations are capable ofreporting snow depths. The advantage offered by the
MEW snow stations is that they are located in ideal
sites to provide water resource information. By theirnature, snow stations are located at higher elevation,
which is bound to cause issues about site installation,
maintenance, and security.
MEW has the largest rainfall monitoring network witharound 180 automatic rain gauges. There is a lack of
capacity to operate and maintain automatic climate
stations. Both MEW and MAIL are still relying on theweather station providers to operate and maintaintheir respective stations.
Agrometeorological Stations (MAIL): MAIL has nine
agrometeorological stations, which provide data for
12 parameters: air temperature, relative humidity,
pressure, wind speed/wind direction (including gusts),
solar radiation, precipitation (hourly, daily, and/or

FIGURE 24 • Location of the 26 AWSs Managed by MEW

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 25 • Climate Monitoring Network

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

TABLE 4 • Climate Monitoring Network by Basin
Basin Area (km2)

Number of Stations

Panj-e-Amu

96,59922

Harirud-Murghab

77,595

6

Helmand327,801

10

Kabul (Indus)

72,68517

Northern

70,914

10

645,594

65

River Basin Name

Total

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

accumulated), soil moisture, soil temperature, leaf wetness and evaporation. They also calculate parametersof the hours of sun, dew point and evapotranspiration.
Figure 27 shows agroclimate data gaps, particularlyin the Northeast and Northwest of Um Darya Basin,
Northern River Basin and Helmand Basin.
MAIL also operates nine automatic agroclimate stations
and 108 automatic rain gauges, including nine at theagroclimate stations and 99 at the rainfall stations.

Standards for site selection and installation of theclimate stations are not harmonized among AMD,
MEW, and MAIL. In addition, the complexity of thetechnology of the automatic stations and the lackof maintenance are among the main reasons for the
malfunctioning of the climate stations.
Forty stations monitor the growth of about 30 cultivatedplant species and agromet conditions for meadows
and pastures. They also provide agromet parameters,
including soil moisture. It is unclear whether farmers
use this information. The Ministry of Agriculture andresearch and academic bodies use this information
mostly for monitoring the growing conditions of crops.
Basic evapotranspiration measurements are made atfive stations.

Surface Hydrological Observations Network
In general, many developing countries report having
insufficient staff and financial resources to operate
and maintain their national hydrological observation

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 26 • Snow Monitoring Network

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

TABLE 5 • Snow Monitoring Network by BasinRiver Basin Name

Basin Area (km2)

Number of Stations

Panj-e-Amu RiverBasin

96,59913

Harirud-Murghab

77,5952

Helmand327,801

5

Kabul (Indus)

72,6858

Northern River Basin
Total

70,9142645,59430

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

network.31 Automatic stations require continual investment, and they need to be refreshed every 10 to 15 years.
Hazard events such as floods, lightning strikes, andvandalism can damage a station beyond repair, buteven limited damages to simple, inexpensive items suchas staff gauges are often not repaired. In many cases,

31 World Bank/GFDRR (2018).

straightforward tasks such as routine maintenanceare neglected while data records and validations
are lost. The ongoing maintenance of hydrologicalnetworks and the establishment and maintenance ofa hydrological information system to enable access todata and information are also necessary operationalparts of fully functional NHSs. These issues are familiarin the context of Afghanistan.
The hydrological observation network in Afghanistan
comprises the following types of monitoring stations
and sites:•

Hydrometric stations for river stage/discharge orreservoir/lake level;•

Water quality monitoring and sediment monitoring sites, which are usually located at streamflow
gauging locations;•

Groundwater level and quality observation wells; and•Groundwater quality monitoring sites.

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 27 • Agroclimate Monitoring Network

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

Surface Water Level/Discharge: With the support ofWorld Bank Irrigation Restoration and Development
Project (IRDP), WRD-MEW has been strengtheninghydrological services since 2008. IRPD support includes
the restructuring of the WRD and the installationand operation of 125 hydrological stations. In many
countries, the potential use of data for real-time water
resources management is not realized due to a lackof telemetry (automated monitoring and communication) and data processing and management systems.
In some countries, telemetry systems are in use at alimited number of stations. Other countries have notelemetered stations at all.
The automatic hydrological stations in Afghanistancollect water level, precipitation, air temperature, andrelative humidity. These parameters were observed
every 15 minutes through data loggers and downloaded
through a telemetry system using Iridium satellite.

The contract for this service was not extended andthe telemetry has remained disconnected since 2016.
Reconnection is being considered with revised data
download frequency. Meteorological stations collectdata for precipitation, temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, solar radiation,and snow depth (in snow survey stations only) andlogged the data every 30 minutes. The data from56 meteorological stations were also transferred innear-real time (every 30 minutes) to a central serverusing the Iridium satellite telemetry system until
December 2016. Currently, 54 meteorological stations
are functional while two stations were destroyed.
The telemetry system is also under consideration in
45 selected hydrological stations.
Because the IRDP Additional Financing shifts to valueadded hydrological services (e.g., flood forecastingand early warning, risk management, climate change6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 28 • Hydrological Monitoring Network

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

impact studies, and snow and glacier monitoring),
there is a need to assess the adequacy and quality ofthe data collected.
Figure 28 illustrates the spatial distribution of thehydrological network for each of the five basins:
overall many parts of the country are adequately
gauged. The ungauged areas center in the Helmand
River Basin, the northeastern part of the Panj-e-Amu
River Basin, parts of the North River Basin andHarirud-Murghab Basin and the southeastern area ofthe Kabul Basin. These monitoring gaps are mainly
due to difficulties of access and/or security issues.
The main criteria to select hydrological stations
are: (i) strategic importance of historical and newlocations; (ii) experience and knowledge of national
and international experts; (iii) uniform coverage inthe river basins and sub-basins using old maps andGoogle Earth Images; and (iv) security situation.

MEW has equipment for 47 new hydrological stations that has not been installed because of security
concerns. WRD is planning to install 18 of thesestations in 2018/19, and the rest will be installed
as and when the security situation improves in therespective locations.
Discharge measurements are made through cableway, bridge boom, wading, and float system. Water
level measurements are taken through automatichydrological stations and staff gauges. Forty-threebank-operated cable ways are installed in the hydrological stations, and work is in progress for 30 morebank-operated cableways.
In 2010, MEW acquired 12 hydro-acoustic instruments(QLiners) for streamflow measurements. In addition
to increased accuracy, the QLiners offer direct measurement of discharge, rating curves updates, and

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

Photo 2: Automatic Hydrologic Station

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b).

TABLE 6 • Hydrometric Monitoring Network
by Basin
Basin Area (km2)

Number of Stations

96,59939

Harirud-Murghab

77,59514

Helmand327,801

17

Kabul (Indus)

72,68537

River Basin Name
Amu Darya

Northern
Total

70,91418

645,594

125

Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017).

tremendous time savings. Unfortunately, the equipment provider could not complete the training of the
MEW staff and the QLiners have not been used. As aresult, MEW is currently using manual current meters
for discharge measurements.
Based on the information gathered through thehydromet and EWS questionnaire, rating curves
are updated only once a year. This is not sufficientfor hydrometric cross sections that have unstableriverbeds. The U.S. Geological Service (USGS)
advises that the initial measurements be madewith the necessary frequency to define the station
rating and then to revisit it at periodic intervals 10
to 12 times per year.32

32 Rantz (1982).

Surface Water Quality Monitoring: Water in the rivers across Afghanistan are used for many purposes,
including for drinking water and other domestic
purposes, industry, and agriculture. Deteriorationof the water quality in rivers affects human health,hydropower generation, livelihoods, the environment,
and the economy in general. Increased sediment andnutrient loading in rivers adversely affect the riverwater quality. The water quality in rivers is correlated
to river flows, and the relationship varies spatiallyand temporally. Climate change further aggravatesthe problem: prolonged dry spells and high-intensity
rainfall contribute to floods, soil erosion, excessive sediment loads in rivers and sedimentation of reservoirs,
reduced groundwater recharge, and reduced base-flow
in rivers. This contributes to further deteriorate thewater quality by increasing the pollution concentration. Protection of surface water from pollution andmonitoring its quality is the responsibility of NEPAwith cooperation from the MAIL, MEW, Ministry of
Urban Development Affairs (MUDA), MRRD, Ministryof Public Health (MoPH), and Ministry of Mines andPetroleum (MoMP). There is no active national routine
water quality monitoring program in Afghanistan. MEW
only has sensors in 12 hydrological stations to measureconductivity, tributary, and water temperature. A lackof wastewater treatment means that raw wastewater
is discharged in river courses and is a major source of
surface water contamination. Routine water quality
monitoring is needed to address water quality deterioration and to protect sources of domestic watersupply, in addition to meeting the need for surface
water quality data of 12 area users.
Sediment Load Monitoring: Soil erosion and siltationof dams and irrigation canals are major issues in
Afghanistan. MEW conducts sediment monitoringin all hydrometric monitoring sites. Six sediment
analysis laboratories have been established by MEW
in Kabul, Nangarhar, Kunduz, Balkh, Kunduz, andKandahar (Figure 29) to analyze the sediment data
(only suspended sediment) collected. Current meters,
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs), suspended
sediment samplers, equipment for sediment labs, andother accessories are used for data collection andanalysis. Given the direct impact of soil erosion on thelife of dams and irrigation canals, additional sedimentmonitoring sites and laboratories are needed in theremaining areas of the country that experience soil
erosion.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 29 • Location of Sediment Analysis Laboratories

Source: WRD (2012).

Groundwater Level and Quality Monitoring: The MEW/
Hydrogeological Department (HGD) has no routine
groundwater monitoring. No groundwater observation wells were reported by MEW/HGD. MEW/HGD
also has no routine groundwater quality monitoring.
However, water quality sampling campaigns are carriedout sporadically in specific areas by projects such as
the one undertaken in 2004 in Kabul.33 In addition
to the threat of raw wastewater discharge to rivers,
septic tank seepages are a threat to groundwater
quality. The results of the sector users’ questionnaire
show that groundwater quality data is needed by
15 socioeconomic areas. This highlights the need forgroundwater quality monitoring.
Water Quality Laboratories: MEW has no water quality
laboratories in Afghanistan. Given the high demandfor both surface water and groundwater quality, andthe responsibility of MEW in surface and groundwater
monitoring, it is necessary to establish water quality
laboratories at MEW.
The above hydrological issues point out that floods area major natural hazard affecting life, livelihood, and theeconomy in Afghanistan. In addition, any deterioration

33 Houben and Tünnermeier (2005).

of water quality may result in further aggravation ofhardships experienced by the population. Climatechange may also make the issues more complicated.

6.4.3 UPPER-AIR SYSTEM
There are no functioning upper-air monitoring stationsin Afghanistan. AMD has identified this as a deficiency
and has proposed the installation of four upper-air
observing stations in its strategic plan. Operating andmaintaining these stations will obviously require training
and financial resources. The plan recognizes that thedesired spatial resolution of upper-air observations is
250 kilometers, which would require a total of 10–11 sites.
Since the plan calls for four sites, an additional six
to seven sites should be envisaged beyond 2021. A
potential opportunity is the Aircraft Meteorological
Data Relay (AMDAR) system; it facilitates the fully
automated collection and transmission of weather
observations from commercial aircraft as well as somemilitary and private aircraft.
In terms of requirements, it would be necessary to equip
the aircraft with the required software for reporting andto establish a means of receiving and processing thedata for local use and putting it on the GTS facilitatedby an existing data processing center (e.g., NOAA or

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

EUMETNET). The associated ongoing communications
cost might be in the order of US$10,00–US$20,000
per year to get the data from the aircraft to the groundand then to the data processing center.

6.4.4 RADAR SYSTEM
There are no weather radars in Afghanistan otherthan those used by Operation Resolute Support.
The AMD strategic plan identified this as insufficientand proposed the installation of one weather radarby 2020. Although radars can be of great help inagriculture and transport, their cost, operation, andmaintenance pose a serious challenge for the AMD
under the existing constraints. The mountainous
terrain of Afghanistan poses serious beam blockage
issues. Furthermore, depending on the intended useof the radar, it may be of limited use outside of thelocal area of the radar itself. Taking all these issues
into consideration, the return on investment may be
too small to be warranted at this time. But this canbe revisited in the future, following other essential
capacity and infrastructure improvements, as well as
improvement in the security situation.

6.4.5 USE OF REMOTE SENSING PRODUCTS
Large parts of Afghanistan do not have insufficientin-situ hydromet observing stations to support thereliable provision of EW and hydromet services. Thisis especially true in the mountainous and semiarid
Helmand Province, the mountainous Amu Dayra
Province and the Northern Plateau. These sparsely
observed regions are where satellite data can beparticularly useful as a complementary data source
to in-situ systems and should be well integrated into
the country’s hydromet observing network to ensure
maximum benefit and cost-effectiveness.
The current security concerns and geographic featuresin Afghanistan lend themselves for using remotesensing systems for data collection. Indeed, such
systems may be the only source of information insome areas of Afghanistan, due to either the limitedor lacking in-situ systems or the prevailing security

issues or hazards. Most stations tend to be locatedin more secure areas around Afghanistan’s major
cities due to the difficult security issues in the region.
Integrating remote sensing data with those obtained
from in-situ stations can be accomplished by using thelatter as a validation or calibration point; by providing
complementary maps of areas that are not observedby in-situ stations; or by blending the in-situ datawith the remote sensing data using models or data
assimilation techniques.
There is limited capacity in Afghanistan to systematically access, process, and integrate remote sensing
products into hydromet services and EW systems,
and no formal requirements have been identified forremote sensing products and services. The development of capacity in this area, however, will allow theuse of remote sensing data to produce precipitation,
floods, landslides, avalanches, extreme temperature,soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and land covermaps of Afghanistan in support of agriculture, and tosupport weather and hydrological forecasting and EW
services. The section below provides an inventory anddescription of currently available and planned remotesensing hydromet and EW products and services
provided by AMD, MEW, MAIL, and MPW, as well as
ongoing projects and initiatives.
AMD has installed a meteorological satellite data reception station providing it with the capability of receiving
satellite images and products from Meteosat-8. One
of Meteosat-8’s products, EUMETCast, provides information on severe weather and convective detection.
EUMETCast data are available and used for weather
forecasting at AMD and are shared between AMD andother national stakeholders. In the absence of weather
radars operated by AMD, useful rainfall data can beobtained from the weather satellite.
MEW uses remote sensing to estimate seasonal water
availability from snowpack. It is planned to use thesnowpack information for flood forecasting and forenhancing in-situ hydromet monitoring. ICIMOD has
supported capacity building activities for WRD staff
on the use of remote sensing systems and Geographic
Information System (GIS) in calculating water balance.

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERSIt is also partnering with WRD to undertake a snow
and glacial study using remote sensing techniques.
MAIL has very high resolution land use imagery andis actively using remote sensing data to produce crop
maps. However, they have very few remote sensing
products related to precipitation, soil moisture, andevapotranspiration. MAIL has been successful inproducing snow maps using satellite visible imagery.
There are many ongoing capacity building and training
initiatives underway at MAIL; however, these initiatives
are limited with respect to processing and analyzing
remote sensing data. There are ongoing plans with
India to establish a satellite receiving station as wellas to further improve MAIL’s climate observing groundnetwork.

6.4.6 DATA MANAGEMENT AND ARCHIVINGSYSTEMS: DATA COLLECTION SYSTEM,QUALITY SYSTEM, AND STORAGE
AND ARCHIVING
Meteorological and hydrological information, products, or services are only as good as the underlying
data and information on which they are based. This
necessitates good systems to manage meteorologicaland hydrological data as a priority, even in resourceconstrained environments. The hydromet services ofmany low- and middle-income countries do not haveaccess to modern information systems. Their data areoften held in paper archives or simple spreadsheets.
Quality assurance and quality control (QA/AC) of
data are another issue in many countries. Modern
data management systems embed a data quality
management framework, but many NMHSs do not
regularly control the data quality. As observed in many
developing countries, limitations of data collection andmanagement also present a barrier to data sharing
among different government departments, even if the
protocols for such exchange exist.
The above situation is familiar in Afghanistan, whichneeds to develop an effective systematic means
for sharing hydromet data and products as well as
for sharing warnings or other products among theagencies. In addition, the main hydromet service providers need a comprehensive, reliable, and accessible
database, as well as proper means for data processing,validation, and communication. AMD, WRD-MEW,
and MAIL all have plans and ongoing activities for
improving data processing, data QA/­QC, and data
management. Until 2017, AMD lacked any form of data
management system including QA/QC. All AMD data
are recorded on paper, and WMO is supporting the
rescue in a digital database of historical data datingfrom the 1940s. There is potential for support from
WMO to AMD in building capacity for processing,
QA/­Q C and management of the data from theupgraded and new stations. As mentioned in Section 5.4.1, AMD has access to data from certain global
centers such as ECMWF and NWS/NOAA throughthe METCAP+ system, as well as satellite data via
the EUMETCast system of Meteosat-8. Some quality
control is done by METCAP+ as well as the observers
themselves, but these are not based on a rigorous
quality management regime.
Hydrological data is managed by WRD-MEW. Hydrological data gathered from the five basins observing
stations are transferred via a flash disk into therelevant PCs at the database room (there are fivePCs for the five basins). This obviously means thatdata are not transmitted in real time for processing
at the database room. Missing hydrological data from1979 to 2009 are being filled through JICA HYMEP(Figure 30).
MEW has been supported by JICA HYMEP since 2013
to build capacity on hydrometeorological information
management by establishing data processing andquality control, data storage, access and dissemination
systems, and procedures. The meteorology section of
MEW collects meteorological data from 26 meteorological and 30 snow observing stations. HYMEP alreadyhas done the quality control and archiving of data for
15 stations and the process is ongoing for the remaining
stations. HYMEP also is supporting the developmentof a framework and procedures for data sharing within
MEW and with other institutions such as AMD, MAIL,
ANDMA, MRRD, and the National Environmental
Protection Agency (Figure 31).

41

42

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 30 • Data Availability

Data Availability

Generated Data (1979–2009)
HYMEP-JICA

Historical Data

Hydrology data from
historical stations(1960–1980)
1-Discharge data
2-Sediment data

Hydrology andmeteorology data from
Automatic Hydrological
Stations (2008–2016)
1-Discharge data
2-Air temperature
3-Relative humidity
4-Precipitation

New Data

Weather Stations(2012–2016)

Snow Stations(2012–2016)

1-Air temperature

1-Air temperature

2-Relative humidity

2-Relative humidity

3-Dew point

3-Dew point

4-Sun hours

4-Sun hours

5- Solar radiation

5-Solar radiation

6-Precipitation

6-Precipitation

7-Wind speed

7-Wind speed

8-Wind direction

8-Wind direction

9-Gust speed

9-Gust speed

10-Gust direction

10-Gust direction

11-Air pressure

11-Snow depth
12-Air pressure

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b).

The MAIL rain gauge network sends data once a day byphone, while monthly rain data sets are sent by regularmail. All data are stored in Microsoft Access and Excel. In
terms of data quality, data from MAIL’s manually observed
stations are not measured according to standards. MAIL
has a data portal that includes historical and estimatedagromet information from the 1950s to 2016, land cover
data for 1972, 1993, and 2011 and a variety of satellite
images from 2005 to 2015. MAIL produces weekly,monthly, and seasonal agroclimate bulletins. The GIS/
Agromet-EW Unit is heading a Geospatial Working Groupto establish a national data center for crop forecastingand drought early warning. It is expected that the aboveplans and ongoing efforts will yield a more common,
useful and cost-effective benefit if they are properly
coordinated among AMD, MEW, and MAIL.

AMD, MEW, and MAIL have ongoing activities forusing hydrometeorological data to develop products
for their own use. WMO supported AMD in developing capacity (Phase 1 of the AMD Strategic Plan,
which ended in December 2017) to analyze weather,interpret NWP products, and prepare Flash Flood
Guidance System (FFGS) bulletins. Once launched,Phase 2 will potentially focus on supporting AMD tosecure access to aeronautical products and expand
its capabilities for provision of improved weather
forecasts and initiation of flood forecasting in collaboration with MEW and MAIL. The eventual goal of
AMD is to establish efficient end-to-end early warning
system and services for hydromet hazards. MEW uses
snow, streamflow, and satellite data to produce water
availability forecasts.

43

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 31 • Framework for a Hydromet Data-Sharing Platform

Major Data Providers
AMD
MEW

MAIL

NMDB

Agriculture
Database

NHDB

Data sharing

rin

ha
as

t
Da
g

Data Consumers

g

in

ar

h
as

t

Da

Universities

ANDMA
National
Fiber Optic
Networkin

Data retrieving

tri
re
ta
Da

g

in

ev

tri

MRRD

re

ev

ta

Natural disaster
operation center

Data retrieving

Dag

Data retrieving

MPW

NEPA

Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b).

6.5 ICT Systems:
Telecommunication System(Data Exchange and Distribution
System, Transmission)
AMD does not have a satellite or a cable connection
for data transfers; data flow from AMD’s stations tothe center takes place daily or six per hour by radiotransmitter or phone. Internet bandwidth speed isvery limited at 8 Mbps for the purpose of downloading
products from global and regional centers. In 2017,
WMO supported AMD to install a new IT infrastructure

and to procure new computers and printers for theforecasters and observers to establish a forecasting
center. Currently, there is only one IT specialist at AMD
managing the AMD website.
The MEW data management infrastructure is welldeveloped and working properly. MEW has advanced
computer systems for data management, as well as
an effective data communication network (satellite
and 3G connections).
MAIL’s AWS data are sent via satellite connection.
Data are transferred to the data center with satellite
networks, phone, 3G connection, and cable DSL.

44STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

6.6 Modeling Systems
6.6.1 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NWP SYSTEMSAMD relied strictly on model data provided by ORS
until recently, with ORS sending daily satellite images
and model (ALADIN) outlooks from ORS’s Meteorological Unit by e-mail to support AMD. The ongoingdevelopment and upgrading of AMD’s communications infrastructure should allow access to NWP
models (e.g., from ECMWF, the UK Met Office, and
the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the U.S.
NWS). AMD issues public weather forecasts basedon data accessed via METCAP+, which includes the
GFS model with a coarse spatial resolution (22 km)
freely available from the Internet and a cloud modelfrom ECMWF. AMD would benefit from access to
ECMWF data and products in graphical format at anannual cost of €3,500 (US$2,870), which is the standard cost for image products. Although the ECMWF
graphical products provide a significant tool to improvehydromet forecasting, the ultimate goal in forecastingshould be access to digital data (e.g., from ECMWF
9-kilometer resolution). A software license is required,and extensive training in handling (use and manipulation) of the digital data from ECMWF is essential. The
current staff underwent a 40-day training course inforecasting in Turkey that provided basic and general
information on meteorological forecasting. AMD would
also benefit from access to observational and NWP
data from neighboring countries’ NHMS (e.g., Pakistan
Meteorological Department, India Meteorological
Department, and Iran Meteorological Organization).
WRD uses the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)
Hydrologic Modeling System to analyze flood runoff.
The system is designed to simulate the completehydrologic processes of dendritic watershed systems.
WRD also uses the HEC Statistical Software Package forflood probability and frequency. This software allows
users to perform statistical analyses of hydrologic
data. No models are used by WRD to produce flood
forecasts. The implementation of forecast models
is a high priority requirement to allow proper flood
forecasting.

6.7 Objective and Impact
Forecasting and Warning
Systems
6.7.1 SEVERE HAZARD FORECASTINGSYSTEMS
Many of the hazards affecting Afghanistan originate
from hydromet events such as heavy precipitation
prolonged dry spells or extreme temperatures. Theseare primary hazards which lead to secondary andtertiary hazards. For example, floods and flash floods
follow weather events, either heavy rain, fast snowmelt
from heat waves in the early spring, or a combinationof both snowmelt or rain on snow. Landslides andavalanches may be other consequences of heavy
precipitation. While droughts could result in heat waves
and water scarcity, both droughts and frosts will resultin damage or loss of crops and important impacts onhuman and animal health. Pest and disease outbreaks
may be triggered by drought or excess precipitation.
The distinction of hazards in such a cascading manneris the first step in progressing from weather forecasts
and warnings to multi-hazard, impact-based forecasts
and warnings (Table 7).
Successful impact-based forecasting requires collaboration with others who have the additional expertise,resources, and knowledge and data. Forecasting
severe hazards will require a well-established weather
forecasting system on different time scales.

Hydrological Forecasts
A considerable amount of the loss and damage could
be avoided if the people to be affected are warnedin advance. The absence of such a warning systemusing modern forecasting and dissemination systems
is a major issue to be addressed in Afghanistan. In
producing hydrological forecasts, close collaboration
between NMHSs and NHSs is essential. Hydrologicalservices are dependent on meteorological data in theform of quantified estimates of observed and forecasted precipitation and temperature, as well as such

45

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERSTABLE 7 • Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Hazards Cascading from Hydrometeorological Events
Event

Primary Hazard

Secondary Hazard

Tertiary Hazard

Thunderstorm• Heavy rainfall• Strong winds• Lightning• Flash floods• River floods• Landslides• Damage to dams and structures, embankment, irrigationand drainage facilities, pumping facilities• Submerging fields• Loss of infrastructure systems and services (shelter, energy, transport,
schools, hospitals, communications)• Widespread economic losses• Infectious disease• Insect and pest problems• Sand and silt deposition• Waterborne diseases• High sediment runoff into reservoirs

Drought• High temperatures• Heat waves• Less rainfall• Water scarcity• Low flow
• Less inflow• Crop damage• Forest and surface fires• High evaporation loss in reservoirs• Shortage of storage water in reservoirs• Insufficient diversion in channels• Salt-affected soil
• Food shortages• Energy shortages• Pumping system difficulties• Air pollution/haze• Smog/dust

ExtremeTemperature• Heat waves• Heat-related complications
with livestock and animals• Heat stroke• Widespread fires• Urban fires• Biological hazards• Stress on vegetation• Water insecurity• Socioeconomic impacts• Hydropower shortage• Changes in groundwater level• Waterborne diseases• Food shortages

environmental variables as dew point, wind speed anddirection, and solar radiation. Too often these data andproducts are provided to NHSs as inputs for hydrologic
modeling as an afterthought, without consideration ofrequired data formats, timeliness, and delivery methods.
NHSs are forced to improvise with data and weather
forecast delivery that is generally inadequate for theirneeds. These considerations are particularly importantin Afghanistan due to the separation of responsibilities
for flood forecasting between AMD and WRD-MEW.
Floods and flash floods are a major source of deathand property loss in Afghanistan. Over a thousand(1,038) flood events occurred between 2012 and 2015,
resulting in the deaths of 204 people, with 212 injured,
34 missing, and nearly 297,000 affected.34 Information
on economic loss was not available, with the exceptionof losses from seven nonconsecutive years between
1978 and 2014 amounting to US$549 million (Deltares,
2016). Figure 7 in Chapter 2 presents the Flash Flood

34 Deltares (2016).

Susceptibility Index by administrative regions. It clearlyshows that a large part of the country is exposed at
a considerably high risk to flash floods.
Specifically, the mountainous northeast part of thecountry and some of the central provinces are particularly vulnerable to floods and flash floods. Flash floods
are triggered by high rainfall intensities that exceed
the infiltration intensity and result in a high amountof surface runoff. In comparison to floods, here thesaturation of soil and the amount of free soil storage
capacity play a less important role. Urban floods are
induced by the same characteristics as flash floods
with the difference that infiltration of paved areas isclose to zero and smaller rainfall intensities will resultin high surface runoff. Soils with moisture below saturation levels still may lead to flash floods in response
to precipitation events. Therefore, although extreme
precipitation will result in flash floods, heavy precipitation may or may not cause flash floods, dependingon the soil condition. WMO with funding from USAID
has planned the development of a Flash Floods Guidance System (FFGS). Once implemented, the system

46

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

will offer two new features: (i) river routing that uses
runoff, soil moisture, and other FFGS parameters andcombines them with the channel geometry and profiles
to estimate discharges at the critical points along theriver (i.e., a river routing module can be expanded toinundation mapping, reservoir management, and water
resources management); and (ii) landslide/mudflow.
AMD is responsible for weather observations andforecasting (including flash floods), while WRD-MEW is
responsible for flood forecasting. However, forecasting
flash floods under currently available techniques, suchas the Global Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) System,
requires an assessment of the current capacity of thesoil to absorb additional moisture, and WRD-MEW,
being responsible for flow forecasting, is the agency inthe best position to assess the capacity available for soil
moisture. It should however be noted that flash floods
cannot be forecasted in the same way as floods. These
events depend on convective cells, which are more
random than large synoptic rainfall events. Early warning for flash floods requires storm tracking by weather
radar. Often the affected region can be anticipated, but
a localization of such events with an area of 1–30 km2 intime is not possible. Close collaboration between AMD
and WRD-MEW is key to successfully forecast flash floods.
Reliable hydrological forecasts require weather forecasts
on various timescales: up to 14 days for rain-induced
flood forecasts, several weeks for snowmelt-induced
floods, two to four weeks for reservoir management,
and monthly and seasonal for droughts. In addition,
river levels and discharge, precipitation, snow conditions (snow cover area and snow-water equivalent),
temperature, and other meteorological observations are
all necessary inputs for hydrological forecasting models.
WRD-MEW collects river and snow observations, while
AMD, WRD-MEW, and MAIL collect meteorologicaland climate observation data.
With support from WMO, AMD issued its first flood
early warning for the country’s south and southeast
regions in August 2017, using data from EUMETCast
and METCAP but not FFGS (which had not yet been
implemented). Afghanistan is part of the WMO’s
South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System, but the
project has not been implemented.35 With the aidof Meteosat-8’s EUMETCast, information on severe
35 WMO (2016b).

weather and convective conditions is available to AMD.
Once implemented, the FFGS will be operated by anagreed leading agency.
WRD-MEW has plans for establishing a Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) to issuehydrological forecasts (both river and flash floods).
Those warnings would be issued to the relevant river
basin authorities and ANDMA. MEW is initiating theestablishment of these services under the newly
established Flood and Drought Forecasting Division.
This division predicts annual surface water resourcesin one watershed based on the estimation of the snow
water equivalent (SWE). FEWS NET produces maps
with SWE observations and posts those maps on theInternet, which are then printed and scanned by MEW
before being converted into a GIS layer to produce anestimate of SWE in the basin. Finally, using GIS and aregression approach, SWE is converted to estimatedsurface water resources available at several sections of
the watershed. However, the procedure of scanning theimage is time consuming and MEW could receive theoriginal digital SWE estimate from the USGS simply byrequesting it. Likewise, MAIL could use water supply
forecasts for irrigation management on all irrigatedlands. MEW issues a water supply outlook for a single
river at a single point. Effective coordination between
MAIL, MEW, and AMD could ensure that MAIL receives
a water supply outlook that considers the supply ofwater from snow melt (MEW-WRD), the expected
precipitation and temperatures for the growing season(AMD) and water usage along the river reach (MAIL).
This would allow MEW to issue reliable forecasts acrossthe country.
As WRD-MEW has taken the initiative to produce anoutlook of water supply for irrigation purposes in one
watershed, as well as a training program for its hydrologists, there is a reasonable degree of confidence that withproper training and a forecasting infrastructure setup,
WRD-MEW will be capable of operating a hydrologicalforecast service for Afghanistan. WRD-MEW would
cover, in addition to water supply for irrigation, flood
forecasts. However, interagency collaboration is critical.

Landslides
There are several types of landslides and several
trigger mechanisms. Only certain types of landslides
are amenable to instrumentation and observation,

47

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

and these include slowly evolving (bedrock or soil)
landslides, or landslides that occur in high risk mountainous areas after forest fires that may lead to debris
flows (commonly known as mudflows). Earthquakes
or slope saturation by water infiltration resulting fromprecipitation, snowmelt, changes in reservoir elevation,
or groundwater levels can trigger rapidly evolving
landslides, such as bedrock slides. In conclusion, among
the different classes of landslides, only those triggered
by water infiltration are suitable for forecasting.

TABLE 8 • Debris Flow in Afghan Districts

The current debris-flow warning demonstration system
in Southern California (U.S.) is a joint USGS and NOAA
effort. NOAA’s system is based on techniques derived
from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) approach andrequires observation of past debris flows to calibrate
the system. In operation, the system has demonstrated
that providing reliable debris-flow forecasts still has
a long way to go. USGS is currently developing new
mechanistic models based more on the physicalcharacteristics of the terrain and properties of the
precipitation events and soil moisture status rather
than on more empirical approaches used in the FFG.

Khash

3

Argo

25

Yamgan31

Qaysar

6

Total

219

In Afghanistan, due to the low forest cover over mostof the country, debris flows occur in non-burned areas.
The location of the debris flow is highly dependent
on very small-scale features of the terrain and theprecipitation event. Fine-scale information on soils isdifficult to obtain, and high resolution precipitation
imagery requires radar observations. Those are notavailable in Afghanistan; however, satellite-based
precipitation observations in near-real time can help
develop this forecast in the future. The Multi-Hazard
Risk Assessment report identified 219 debris flows in
11 districts in Afghanistan (Table 8).
Even though precipitation is the main driver of debrisflow generation, prior soil moisture also plays a role.
Therefore, in addition to the standard weather stations,
there is a need for monitoring soil moisture at different
depths. It is virtually impossible to select a priori wheredebris flows will occur in Afghanistan (Figure 32).
Debris flows, unlike floods and avalanches, permanently
change the affected terrain, so setting up observation
networks on past debris-flow sites may not yieldvaluable information. Further, debris-flow landslides
may stop moving before reaching the bottom of theslope. This implies that the location of a debris-flow

District

Number of Locations

Bamyan31

Lal Wa Saranjal

4Pashtun Kot

21

Darah Suf-e-Bala

59

Chah Ab

12

Argah Khwa

1

Faiz-Abad

26

Source: Deltares (2016).

landslide depends not only on the local geologicaland morphological conditions of the terrain, but also
on very localized factors causing heavy infiltration ofwater into the soil.
While it is feasible to forecast floods using basin
precipitation estimates, forecasting debris flows, andto a lesser extent flash floods, requires high-resolution
precipitation estimates, which are only achievable fromradar or satellite observations. The localized nature ofdebris-flow generation requires a high-spatial resolution observation network for precipitation, like thatobtained from weather radars. But debris flows occur
in mountainous areas, and it is precisely in those areas
where ground-based radar observations tend to haveproblems from the blocking effect of the mountains.
Hopefully, real-time precipitation observations fromsatellites will improve in the coming years and provide
the required high-resolution spatial imagery.
Any type of landslide forecasting capability requires
coordination among AMD (weather observations andforecasting, remote sensing), MEW (water infiltration,snow observations, runoff forecasts), MAIL (land use,land cover), Afghan Geological Survey (geologic conditions, lithology, soil cover) and MPW (road infrastructure).
Afghanistan currently does not have a capability forlandslide forecasting. Although the science of landslide
forecasting is still under development, an appropriate
strategy for landslide problems exists. This involves the

48

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 32 • Landslide Locations

Source: Deltares (2016).

use of a digital terrain model and a GIS-based analysis
of soil conditions and slope conditions in relationshipto the storage capacity of upper soil layers and thedepth of surface runoff that could be expected. In thisway, the most endangered sites could be identified. A
terrain analysis could be done from time to time using
LiDAR to monitor the changes in landslide risk. The
existing debris-flow demonstration systems worldwide(NOAA-USGS Debris Flow Task Force, 2005) have notbeen deployed in Afghanistan.

Avalanches
Avalanches are a major source of deaths and property
damage in Afghanistan, though of negligible impact
on transportation infrastructure. The main factors inavalanche generation include snow depth and profile,
fresh snowfall, and wind speed and direction.
WRD-MEW collects data for snow depth and glaciersfrom five river basins. Remote sensing is used to monitor
snow cover with support from ICIMOD. Their purpose,
however, is directed toward water supply forecasts andnot necessarily toward avalanche forecasting or early
warning. Deltares (2016) notes that the current 30 snow
stations available in Afghanistan are insufficient fornationwide avalanche assessment. The report provides
a list of data relevant to snow avalanche hazards andrisk mapping and modeling, including topographic,
meteorological, cadastral, and statistical datasets.

There is no avalanche forecast service in Afghanistan.
Likewise, there appears to be no snow observation
stations dedicated for the prediction of avalanches,with the exception of two stations provided to MPW
by ORS on the Salang Pass. To develop an effective
avalanche forecasting service in Afghanistan, thenumber of stations need to be increased to cover all
high-risk areas (high probability of occurrence and ahigh cost in terms of lives or property losses). The newstations should measure the parameters specific tosnow avalanche triggering as mentioned above. Given
that avalanches tend to recur in the same geographicalarea, it is possible to prioritize needed locations for
new stations.

Droughts
USAID, USGS, NOAA, NASA, the U.S. Department ofAgriculture (USDA), and two private organizations(Kimetrica and Chemonics) work with local governments and NGOs to assess the risks of food shortages
in Afghanistan through FEWS NET. The Standard
Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity
Index (PDSI) and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) areused. The fourth drought index that may be suitablefor Afghanistan is the Normalized Deficit Vegetation
Index (NDVI), which is based on satellite observations
and assessment of vegetation health. FEWS NET
produces both observations and forecasts and relies
heavily on satellite-based observations, which makes6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

it particularly suited for Afghanistan, given the sparsityof ground-based observations in the country. These
products, however, do not provide the necessary
resolution for the relevant institutions to plan mitigating
actions ahead of drought. Observations are provided
by NASA (SWE), NOAA (rainfall, temperature) andthe USGS (NDVI). It is essential to build the technicalcapacity of the AMD staff so they can use and buildon this information. An important requirement for
AMD is developing monthly and seasonal long-range
weather forecasting by applying the Regional Climate
Downscaling (RCD) methods to provide detailed andaccurate representation of localized extreme climate
events, and training of staff in downscaling of climate
models techniques.

Collaboration among AMD (with the development of
RCD), MEW, and MAIL should enable the developmentof an effective drought forecasting service, covering
the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologicaldroughts. The three agencies together can capture
the information needed for the forecast, but no one
single agency can do so by itself.

6.7.2 VERY SHORT- AND SHORT-RANGEFORECASTING SYSTEMSOther than a plain language, three-day forecast produced in Dari (Figure 33), until quite recently AMD had
no weather forecasting system specifically developed

FIGURE 33 • Sample Three-Day Forecast Produced by AMD

METEOROLOGICAL APPEARANCE
According to recent evaluations
Northeast and Eastern part of Afghanistan will be affected by rain.
WARNING:
Cloud Cover and Wind Speed and Direction in Afghanistan:
Kabul

KABUL

Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 3–6 knot from NNW direction.

Central Zone

Ghazni
BamyanWill be sunny. Wind speed is 4–6 knot from NW.
Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 3–4 knot from NNW direction.

North Zone

Maimana
Mazar-e-Sharif

Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 4–5 knot from W.
Will be partly sunny. Wind speed is 15 knot from WSW direction.

North East Zone

Faizabad
KunduzWill be sunny. Wind speed will be between 6–7 knot from W.
Will be cloudy. Wind speed is between 5–6 knot from SW direction.

West Zone

Cheghcheran
HeratWill be sunny. Wind speed is between 5–6 knot from NE direction.
Is expected to be sunny. Wind speed is 15–21 knot from NE direction.

South West Zone Lashkargah
Farah
KandaharWill be sunny. Wind speed is between 4–5 knot from S direction.
Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 16–18 knot from N.
Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 7–8 knot from NNE direction.

East Zone

Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 8 knot from N.
Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 13–15 knot from WNW
direction.

Source: AMD (2018).

GardizJalalAbad

49

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

for Afghanistan. Those plain language forecasts havenow been expanded upon slightly for select cities (seehttp://www.amd.gov.af/).
India is keen to play a key part in AMD’s development. AMD has signed an agreement with the India
Meteorological Department (IMD), National Center for
Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), Regional
Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
and Ministry of Earth Science for a five-year special
program designed for AMD rehabilitation including
equipment and training of AMD staff. In turn, India
requires AMD to distribute synoptic meteorological observation data to IMD to assimilate within its
meteorological network.36
As part of its future development, AMD should have acommunications infrastructure that supports transmitting weather forecasts to stakeholders such as ANDMA,
MEW, MAIL, and MPW.

6.7.3 MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGEFORECASTING SYSTEMS
Medium-range forecasts cover up to 10 days ahead.
Long-range forecasts (LRF) are monthly and seasonal
forecasts that are required for planning purposesin different sectors. LRFs are available on several
websites. The ECMWF website includes EUROSIP
products, which are multi-model seasonal forecasts
from the ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP)
and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The WMO
Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model
Ensemble (https://www.wmolc.org/) provides accessto the 12 Global Producing Centers for long-range
forecasts. A global climate model (GCM) can provide
reliable prediction information on scales of around
1,000 km 3 1,000 km, covering what could be a vastlydiffering landscape (e.g., from very mountainous to
36 Met Office (2012).

flat coastal plains) with varying potential for droughts,
floods, or other extreme events.
While GCMs can provide projections of how the climateof the earth may change in the future, the impacts of achanging climate and the adaptation strategies required
to deal with them occur on regional and national scales.
This is where Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD)
provides projections with much more detail and moreaccurate representation of localized extreme events.
This supports more detailed impact and adaptationassessments and planning. There is a lack of capability
in medium- and long-range forecasting in Afghanistan
to provide users such as the agriculture, energy, health,and transport sectors as well as disaster managementwith forecasts and outlooks necessary for planningand operation purposes.

6.8 Current System
Figure 17 in this Road Map presented the system-ofsystem concept in the structure and functioning of amodern NMHS. Figure 34 reflects an analysis of AMD’s
current system of systems in producing and deliveringhydromet products. It is assumed that AMD has accessto the meteorological data collected by WRD-MEW
and MAIL, hence the green area in the “external datasystems.” The approximate capabilities for each system
are indicated as percentages in Table 9 relative to afull capacity (100 percent), for example in accessing
and using global NWP systems or providing a full suiteof PWS to all users. This figure highlights gaps in thepresent AMD system and provides insight into areasthat require investment for improved service delivery.
A similar system of systems for hydrological and flood
forecasting services shows the status of the MEW
production and service delivery systems and theassociated enabling environments of capacity building
and technical capabilities (Figure 35). The approximate
capabilities for each system are indicated in Table 10.

51

6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS

FIGURE 34 • AMD System of Systems, Current Capacity
Monitoring and observing systems

Modeling systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Upper air systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range
forecasting system

Nowcasting model
systemShort-range
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Medium-range
forecasting system

External data systems

G2G water andenergy management
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems

Quality management systems
Communication
systems

Operational management
systems

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

Technology infusion systems

Institutional management
systems

Service systems fornational and provincial
governments

G2G agriculture
service system

Data comms
systems
Computing hardware
and software systems

Service systems for
publicG2G disastermanagement
service system

Long-range
forecasting system

ITC systems

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems

Public weather
services system

Radar system
Data management
and archiving systems

Service delivery systems

Internal research anddevelopment systems

Cloud computing
systems

Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met/hydro institutional
education and training

End-user training andoutreach

Stakeholder institutions
training

Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system (courtesy David Rogers 2018).

TABLE 9 • AMD System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%)

Monitoring
and Observing
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

Service
Delivery
Systems

Quality
Management
Systems

Severe hazard
forecasting

Public weather
services

Institutional
management

20%

30%

10%

Very short-range
forecasting

Agricultural
service

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

30%

30%

30%

10%

10%

Data management
and archiving

Short-range
forecasting

Water and power
management
service10%30%Modeling
Systems

Global data

Global NWP

30%

20%

National data:
Surface obs.

Regional NWP

ICT Systems

Capacity Building

Data communication

Met/hydro institutional
education and training

10%
20%

40%

30%
External data
50%

Communications
10%

52

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 35 • MEW System of Systems, Current Capacity
Monitoring and observing systems

Modeling systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hydro hazard
forecasting systems

Public hydrologicalservices system

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system/
flash flood guidanceG2G disastermanagement
service system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range flood
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Short-range flood
forecasting system
Medium-range flood
forecasting system

Data management
and archiving systems
ITC systems

Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Communication
systems

Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Cloud computing
systems

Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

G2G agriculture
service system

Service systems forbusinesses

Long-range flood
forecasting system

Data comms
systems

Quality management systems

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems

G2G water andpower management
services system

Radar system

External data systems

Service delivery systems

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system. (courtesy David Rogers 2018).

TABLE 10 • MEW System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%)

Monitoring
and Observing
Systems
Global data system

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

Hydromodeling

Service
Delivery
Systems
Publichydrologicalservices30%
20%

Quality
Management
Systems
Institutional
management

ICT Systems

Capacity Building

Data communication

Met/hydro institutional
education and training

40%
35%

50%

20–30%
National data:
surface obs.

Seasonal(medium-range)
forecasting70%

Agricultural
service

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

20–30%

40%

30%

30%
Data management
and archiving

Water and power
management
service40%
20–30%
External data
40%

Disastermanagement
service
20–30%

Communications
40%

53



7. MODERNIZATIONOF METEOROLOGICALAND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES
AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

7.1 Value Chain Approach
Stakeholder requests for improved AMD and WRDMEW forecast and warning services clearly reflect theneed to modernize the two departments’ infrastructures beyond just the observation and data-gatheringsystems. Fit-for-purpose services are the priority of
all users (Photo 3). For both AMD and WRD-MEW
identification of the users of their services and users’
needs is a first step in the modernization of these organizations. A well-planned and organized NMHS shouldplay a key role in early warning systems and services

Photo 3: Modern Forecaster Workstation in Cambodia

Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013).

(EWS). Producing and disseminating warnings that are
targeted to the impacted areas and populations are
the main mandate of any NMHS. The introduction of
impact-based forecasting and warning services is theway of future NMHS operations in collaboration with
relevant government organizations and especially the
NHS and ANDMA. The public will need to be educatedand the emergency management authorities willneed to be trained on the potential impacts of severehydrometeorological events to take protective actions.
Given all the arguments in its favor, modernizing a
NMHS has proved to be a complex, time-consuming

54

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

and expensive task in many countries, including
developed economies. The modernization of the U.S.
National Weather Service took over 10 years and cost
US$4.5 billion.37 A detailed account of the modernization of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)38
provides a wealth of experience and guidance forcountries intending to embark on such a modernization.
To this end, before proposing modernization activities
for the AMD and WRD-MEW, it would be reasonable
to present a brief description of the main elements ofa well-functioning NMHS.
The operation of a NMHS in any country is based on
observations and data collection; data processing;telecommunications; preparation of forecasts, warnings, and climate advisories; and dissemination of
forecasts and other specialized information throughthe media and other channels to users (Figure 36).
No country is alone in undertaking these tasks; thecombination of many networks, centers, and hubs on
global, regional, and national scales form the intricatelyinterconnected world of global hydrometeorology. The
FIGURE 36 • Schematic of Global Observing,
Telecommunication, Data Processing, Forecastingand Dissemination System

Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013).
Note: Compilation of different systems of observation,
telecommunication, data processing, forecasting, and dissemination
based on the WMO World Weather Watch System.

three components of observations, telecommunications, and data processing and forecasting together
comprise the WMO World Weather Watch Program.
The Global Observing System, although extremelycomplex, is perhaps one of the most ambitious andsuccessful instances of international collaboration in
the last 100 years. The system consists of a multitudeof individual observing systems owned and operated by many national and international agencies.
The Global Telecommunication System (GTS) is thecommunications and data management component
that allows the World Weather Watch to collect anddistribute information critical to its processes. The
GTS is implemented and operated by the NMHSs of
WMO members and by intergovernmental organizations, such as ECMWF and the EUMETSAT. The GTS
also supports other programs, facilitating the flow ofdata and processed products to meet WMO members’
requirements in a timely, reliable and cost-effective
way. It ensures that all members have full access tometeorological and related data, forecasts, and alerts.
The Global Observing System evolved into the WMO
Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and the
GTS expanded into the WMO Information System (WIS).
The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System(GDPFS) encompasses all forecasting systems operated
by WMO members. It enables members to make useof the advances in NWP by providing a frameworkfor sharing data related to operational hydrology,
meteorology, and oceanography. The main support
for the exchange and delivery of these data is the WIS.
The value of the products and services of NMHSs is
manifested in the way they are used by the recipients.
The generation of meteorological and hydrologicalvalue can be depicted in a “value chain”39 linking the
production and delivery of services to user decisions
and the outcomes and values resulting from thosedecisions (Figure 37). Potential value is added at eachlink of the chain (moving from left to right in Figure 37)
as services are received by users and incorporated intoor considered in decisions. Value adding processes
involve tailoring services to more specialized applications and decisions (i.e., making the information more
relevant and trustworthy) or expanding the reach of
an information product to ever-greater audiences (e.g.,

37 Ibid.
38 World Bank (2017).

39 WMO, World Bank/GFDRR, USAID (2015).

7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSFIGURE 37 • Hydromet Production Value Chain

Processing and data management

Weather
ClimateWater

Observations

Modeling

Forecasting

ServicedeliveryResearch and development

CO M M U N I C AT I O N P R O C E S S E S
Weather
ClimateWater

SERVICEPRODUCTION
Processing & data management

Weather
ClimateWater

Observation

Modeling

Forecasting

Research & development

ServicedeliveryBasic andspecialized services
NMHS and commercial
providersUser decisions
andactions

Outcomes

VALUE
Benefits
andcosts

VA LU E A D D I N G P R O C E S S E S

Source: WMO, World Bank/GFDRR, USAID (2015).

public, decision makers, and clients). In a modernized,
well-functioning NMHS, every link in this chain is strong,
helping to deliver value to the society at the end of thechain. In contrast, in a less developed NMHS, the chain
often stops at observation or forecasting without arobust modeling and service delivery capability, and abroken link somewhere in the value chain would resultin producing suboptimal, and in worst case, no value
at all to the society.
Modernizing NMHSs cannot be piecemeal, however it
could be implemented in a phased approach stretchedover a number of years as long as the initial plan takes
into consideration every component of every systemand the level of improvement needed. In the end of
the implementation of the plan, the process should betransformative, ensuring NMHSs can deliver the services
stakeholders expect.40 As part of its modernization,
significant improvement of interrelated elements ofmeteorological and hydrological monitoring networks,
forecasting, and service delivery is necessary. This
includes new technologies for data sensing andrecording, data validation and archiving, and modern
scientific-based tools for forecasting, dissemination, andcommunication of products and services (Figure 38).

40 Rogers et al. (mimeo).

Such improvement requires the integration of fiveessential elements in the monitoring program of
an NMHS,41 as follows: quality management system(QMS), network design, technology, training, and data
management. Network design has to be an ongoingprocess based on user needs, with new stations being
established and existing stations being discontinued
as program priorities and funding evolve. Selecting thebest technology for data sensing at a given location
is a very complex task. There are many technologies
available and for each combination of these technologies, there are numerous vendors and products
available. Network operators must consider additional
factors such as reliability, reporting accuracy, costs,
operation and maintenance requirements, durability,
and site specifications. Data management ensures theproper storing, validating, analyzing, and reporting ofvast amounts of data and establishes the validity ofthe data by providing evidence of compliance with
the QMS. Finally, no investment in technology cancompensate deficits in human capacities for which
continuous training is essential. Figure 39 gives an
overview of the flow of data and information in modernhydrometeorological services.

41 Hamilon (2012).

55

56

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 38 • Schematic of NMHS Modernization
Information utilizationand decision making

Monitoring network design
based on user requirements

Information dissemination

Modernization
NMHS

Data synthesis and analysis(incl. modeling, forecasting)

Data sensing andrecording

Data validation andarchiving

Source: Courtesy Andreas Schumann 2017.

FIGURE 39 • Data Flow in Hydrometeorological Services
User community

Objectives

Naturalmeteorological andhydrologicalcharacteristics

Data for operational
purposes

Dissemination of
information

Network design—program priorities—new stations—closure of stations

Data collection
Meteorological andhydrological informatione.g., forecasts, statistics,
real-time data

Quality management system

Data management system
Source: Courtesy Andreas Schumann (2017).

Technologies, depending on—reliability—accuracy—control and maintenance—specific local site factors—costs of ownerships

7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

The socioeconomic benefits of modernization will bemanifested in managing risk and aiding decision making in (i) weather-related disasters and (ii) economic
development. This is especially the case for floods,
which have the biggest impact on the poor and vulnerable populations. Improving the forecasting and early
warning of hydrometeorological hazards will contributeto building resilience for communities and sectors at
risk. A substantial modernization program for any
NMHS should typically include three components,42
namely: (i) enhancement of service delivery systems;(ii) institutional strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT, andforecasting infrastructure. The activities proposed in
the subsequent sections are in line with this principle.
They aim to strengthen the AMD and WRD-MEW’s
institutional basis: to enhance a legal and regulatory
framework and to develop the capacity of staff; totechnically modernize the observation, ICT, data
management, and hydromet forecasting infrastructureand facilities; and, most importantly, to improve thedelivery of hydromet and EWS to the Afghan people
and weather-dependent sectors.

and global products to ensure cost-effective systemdevelopment and area coverage. In addition, there isenough information to allow MEW to potentially issue
long-range forecasts on drought. Both the USAID/
NASA SERVIR project and USAID/IMMAP offer many
opportunities for MAIL and MEW as well as AMD touse, coordinate, and share geospatial information andsatellite data essential to enhance each institution’sobservation network. The database proposed by
JICA HYMEP should serve as a good working model
to expand into a national hydromet database andlink in ANDMA and MRRD for EW and dissemination purposes. The scope of the database should be
expanded to receive data/information from AMD,
MEW, MAIL, and MPW, as well the following portals:
SERVIR, Afghanistan Spatial Data Center, and FEWS
NET data. A more detailed description of the existingregional and international initiatives is provided below.

7.2.1 REGIONAL INITIATIVES•FEWS NET applies satellite-based observations todevelop precipitation maps, soil moisture maps, andregional forecasts, which makes it particularly suited
for Afghanistan, given the sparsity of ground-based
observations in the country. FEWS NET provides
information to potentially allow Afghanistan agencies
to issue long-range forecasts on drought. Satellite
data is valuable for MAIL in providing a view of crop
and water conditions across the entire country ata single glance. MAIL has been supported by Foodand Agriculture Organization (FAO), FEWS NET,and SERVIR to develop agricultural drought early
warning, agro-crop models for crop forecasting andpest and disease early warning. MEW has been using
FEWS NET maps for its seasonal runoff forecast ona single basin, as well as the FEWS NET project SWE
maps to forecast water availability. FEWS NET makes
available digital maps of the snow properties (SWEand snow cover area), which are directly readable by
GIS. While FEWS NET provides a large-scale overview
of the drought situation, more detailed and higher
resolution information is needed to more effectively
aid in planning and decision-making purposes andfor issuing accurate warnings.

•

SERVIR and ICIMOD empower decision makers
with tools, products, and services to act locally on
climate-sensitive issues such as hydromet-related
disasters, agriculture, water, ecosystems, and landuse. The availability of remote sensing products from

7.2 Development Partners
and Cooperation
There are a number of ongoing initiatives that aim atstrengthening early warning systems and hydromet
services in Afghanistan. It is therefore crucial thatplanned initiatives will build upon the activities andachievements of ongoing projects such as those being
implemented through USAID/WMO, World Bank Irrigation Restoration and Development Project (IRDP),
USAID/FEWS NET, USAID/NASA SERVIR, USAID/
Information Management and Mine Action Program(IMMAP) and JICA HYMEP.
Any new project for modernizing AMD would benefit
from consolidating the achievements so far of the
USAID/WMO project to strengthen early warnings ofhydromet hazards and by taking into consideration
the AMD’s five-year strategic plan (2017–21). Similarly,
there is significant opportunity for coordinating andconsolidation of resources with the ongoing World Bank
IRDP, which is considering the effective use of regional
42 Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013).

57

58

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FEWS NET, SERVIR, and ICIMOD are greatly accelerating the use of such products for hydromet andEW services in Afghanistan. These products should
be used in conjunction with climate downscaling
techniques to produce more detailed information
on smaller scales to increase their usefulness.
•

In addition, JICA HYMEP is supporting MEW indeveloping other products such as runoff analysis,
flow duration curves, flood and rainfall frequency
analysis, basin average rainfall, and basin water balance. The World Bank IRDP is planning to support
MEW in developing hydromet information products
for river basin planning, dam development and operation, flood risk management, and irrigation planning.

7.2.2 INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES
There are a number of ongoing international initiatives
for remote sensing that offer potential benefits for
Afghanistan’s hydromet and EW systems and services:•

The United Nations Platform for Space-based
information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) was established in2006 to provide information for humanitarian aid
and emergency response, with a particular focus
on assisting developing countries to gain accessto satellite data for emergency preparedness andresponse needs.

•

The FAO Global Information and Early Warning
System (GIEWS), established in the wake of theworld food crisis of the early 1970s, provides
information on food production and food security
and consists of a worldwide network including
115 governments, 61 nongovernmental organizations(NGOs) and numerous trades, research, and media
organizations.

•

The Global Disaster Alerts and Coordination System(GDACS), developed by the Joint Research Centreof the European Commission and used jointly
by the European Commissions and the United
Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is a fully automatic 24/7 alert
system which gathers data about natural severe
events (earthquakes, tsunamis, tropical storms,
floods, and volcanoes). GDACS collects near-realtime hazard information and combines this withdemographic and socioeconomic data to perform
an analysis of the expected impact. This is basedon the magnitude of the event and possible risk
for the population. The result of this risk analysis
is distributed by the GDACS website and alerts aresent via e-mail, fax and SMS to subscribers in thedisaster relief community and all other persons
that are interested in this information.

Additional initiatives include UNOSAT, DLR-ZKI,
SERTIT, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) of
the European Commission and the European Space
Agency (ESA), PREVIEW (Prevention, Information and
Early Warning pre-operational services to support the
management of risks), LIMES (Land and Sea Integrated
Monitoring for Environment and Security), GMOSS(Global Monitoring for Security and Stability), SAFER(Services and Applications For Emergency Response),and G-MOSAIC (GMES services for Management of
Operations, Situation Awareness and Intelligence forregional Crises).
Clearly, guidance is required for officials in Afghanistan
to identify relevant information and application for
specific needs of the country.

59

8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP
FOR MODERNIZATIONOF AMD AND WRD-MEW

R

ecognizing that cultural change in institutions
takes time, the proposed Road Map represents
the first step in a planned long-term engagement
on hydromet modernization. The resulting projectneeds to lay a strong foundation that can be developed
over time. This is especially true since in general, invarious government ministries in Afghanistan, there isinsufficient understanding of the role that AMD and
WRD-MEW can play in many areas of the developmentof the country.43 An iterative approach to integrating
projects, including inter-ministry mentoring, will
help raise the confidence levels of other sectors that
MEW and AMD can take care of meteorological andhydrological data production, storage, management,
and use. This may also help the government recognizethat some water and agricultural management funding
should, in proportion, be channeled to build the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
A modernization program for any NMHS should
include the three interrelated groups of activities
or components: (i) enhancement of service delivery
system; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity
building; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT,and forecasting infrastructure. These components
are described in some detail in the case of AMD and
WRD-MEW.

8.1 Delivery of Services
AMD and WRD-MEW should evolve from data providers to demand- and user-driven, knowledge-basedorganizations that emphasize service provision across
many socioeconomic sectors, while strengthening
their capacity for technical and scientific activities.

43 Met Office (2012).

Such institutional modernization generally requires
decades, far beyond the normal life cycle of individual
development projects. Time is required to allow propercapacity building for the staff of these organizations
to take ownership of the investments in new equipment and technologies and how best to use this new
knowledge.
Some of the challenges that exist in most countries
relate to the gap between providers and users ofhydrometeorological services leading to miscommunications and misunderstandings between the twosides. To close this gap, it is essential to create anddeepen the understanding of who the users are, what
they need, and how NMHSs can meet those needs. It
is critical that the design and updating of monitoring
networks be coordinated with the user community,
so as to achieve an integrated network that supports
users’ requirements for services. Assessing demands
and priorities with current and potential users is noteasy. It is encouraging to note that some effort has been
made in Afghanistan to identify the various users andtheir requirements for hydrometeorological information.
In many countries, decision makers assume existing
meteorological and hydrological records are sufficient
to resolve most of the present problems. Under achanging climate, however, it is no longer possible
to assume the future record will follow the historical
record. An integrated national policy for meteorologicaland hydrological services is essential to deliver these
services in a better and more user-targeted manner.
The objective under this component of the Road
Map is to enhance the AMD and WRD-MEW service
delivery systems by developing a national Strategy for
Service Delivery (SSD); enhancing public weather andhydrological services; strengthening end-to-end early
warning systems and services, including impact-based
forecast and warning services; developing agriculture

60

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

and climate advisory services; and creating a National
Framework for Climate Services. This provides for the
implementation of a systematic upgrade of the weather,climate, and hydrological-related end-to-end services
provided to all agencies, communities, and individuals. The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its
Implementation Plan (the Strategy) provide in-depth
and step-by-step guidance to enhance and develop
service delivery.44 The Strategy describes a continuous cycle of four stages that define the frameworkfor service delivery and identifies six elements thatdetail the activities required for high-quality service
delivery (Figure 40).

to develop and implement a strategy for service
delivery with the engagement of service providers,
stakeholders, and users. The strategy should outline
user needs; priorities for needed products and services;
design and generation of those products and services;dissemination of products and delivery of services;evaluation of the impact of the new products andservices on the country; and improvement of products
and services.45 Since user needs change periodically,
existing and potential new key users should be surveyed
on a regular basis. It is widely accepted that it is nolonger sufficient for NMHSs to employ good scienceand provide accurate forecasts; they also need toengage the public and more specialized users througheducating and informing them in how to make the bestuse of scientific endeavors. It is essential that a user
database be maintained and updated. The products
and services required by the users should become
part of WRD-MEW and AMD and its stakeholders’strategic planning.

Annex 2 shows the Service Delivery Progress Model as
illustrated in the Strategy. It should be noted that thismodel is applicable to all types of services provided
by NMHSs.
Such a shift to user-based products and service delivery
requires a mechanism to facilitate communication
and understanding between the meteorological andhydrological service providers and the user sectors.
Establishing a hydrometeorological user group is a
useful tool for this purpose. The user group needs

The existing cooperation between AMD and WRDMEW is an excellent starting point and may be used
to identify the products and services that could
be provided in a collaborative approach by both

44 WMO (2014).

45 Ibid.

FIGURE 40 • Stages and Elements of Hydrometeorological Service Delivery
The four stages of a continuous, cyclic process for developing and delivering services are:
(1) User engagement anddeveloping partnerships(4) Evaluation andimprovement

12(2) Service design anddevelopment

43(3) Delivery

The six elements necessary for moving toward a more service-oriented culture are:Source: WMO (2014).

1

Evaluate user needs
and decisions

4

Sustain improved
service delivery

2

Link service development anddelivery to user needs

5

Develop skills needed to sustain
service delivery

3

Evaluate and monitor service
performance and outcomes6

Share best practices andknowledge8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW

organizations based on users’ needs. A successful
example of such an approach is the UK Met Office Flood
Forecast Centre (FFC) at their Exeter Headquarters.
In April 2009, the Environmental Agency and the UK
Met Office established a joint operations center forflood warnings and related extreme weather events.
This development was a response to serious flooding
events in the country in 2007, which raised concerns
over high-level coordination. Both organizations
undertook to combine their expertise to find a bettermeans of providing the most complete assessment ofoperational flood risk, from the developing weather
conditions through to the actual flooding event itself.
The combined expertise of the Environment Agency
and the Met Office is used to forecast river, tidal,
and coastal flooding, as well as extreme rainfall that
may lead to surface flooding. The FFC provides thefollowing services:•

Extreme rainfall alert services;•

National flood guidance statements; and•Web service.

The FFC provides daily routine weather forecasts for
the Environment Agency and a daily flood guidancestatement for the main civil responders. When heavy
rainfall is either forecast or occurring, the center also
provides a range of precipitation forecasts for theEnvironment Agency and also extreme rainfall alerts
to the civil contingency responders.

Photo 4. Flood Forecasting Center, Met Office,United Kingdom

Source: Haleh Kootval (2018).

Although there is no fixed optimum pattern to follow
in the establishment of a national flood forecasting
center, the following capacities must be available:•

Hydrological forecasters and modelers;•Meteorological forecasters (in case of the meteorological and water management being separated,the meteorologists involved should have specificunderstanding of hydrological requirements);•

IT and operational technical communication;•

Communications with the media, public, and thegovernment;•

Management and administration; and•Research and development.

It is now recognized that the importance of flood
forecasting and warning as a process in managing
flood risk and impact requires a full-time and structured
organizational approach. It is no longer something thatcan be added on as a temporary contingency operation
within an organization fulfilling other primary roles, forexample public works or municipalities.
A collaborative partnership between AMD and WRDMEW, based on user requirements might result in thehydrological partner (WRD-MEW) providing services,
including:46•

Water-related data and observations obtained fromhydrological observing network;•

Water-related information such as a comprehensive assessment of national water resources,
the statistics of flood events or maps of spatial/
temporal trends;•

A monitoring service designed to provide very
specific data or information at a particular location
for a particular user (e.g., to indicate when theremaining discharge, influenced by water extractions, falls below a specified minimum value);•

Knowledge and understanding of water-related
phenomena and water resources;•

Advice on decision making, where information isdeveloped into recommendations for response tocertain conditions (e.g., an evolving drought); and46 WMO (2009).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP•

Setting up a model- and database-driven methodology to estimate water balances since reliable
estimates of water balance are a service requiredby many users and should be developed throughjoint interdisciplinary efforts of experts in geoinformatics, hydrology, meteorology, and water
management. This requires an exchange of information between sectors and capacity building of staff.

Photo 5. Modern Public Weather Service Delivery
in Indonesia

Similarly, the meteorological partner (AMD) mightprovide services, including:•

Weather-related data and observations from meteorological observing network that provides specificdata at a particular location on agreed atmosphericelements based on established practices by WMO;•

Weather forecasts at various timescales (nowcasting, very short-, short-, medium-, and long-range
based on available capacity) based on user needs
and severe weather warnings; and•Advice on the impact of the weather conditions(both severe and routine conditions) on different
stakeholders and decision-making guidance forusers.

8.1.1 STRENGTHENING PUBLIC WEATHER,
CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES
The public weather service (PWS) is the main channel
used by NMHSs for liaising with the public, the media,
and the sectors impacted by weather and climate. It
is the principal interface between the technical provider of weather and related products and the users.
It interprets and translates technical meteorologicalforecasts and other information into socially andeconomically relevant and understandable informationand provides this information to the public at large andvarious sectors for decision making. In most countries
all forecasts and warnings are disseminated from the
NMHS via various channels including the media, theweb, and increasingly the social media. This information includes both weather and hydrological forecasts.
Under a PWS program, standard operating proceduresshould be developed and implemented by AMD and
WRD-MEW in partnership with key stakeholders for
producing and communicating fit-for-purpose services.
This is especially important in the case of warnings
to ensure that such information is consistent among

Source: Haleh Kootval (2018).

partners and stakeholders, permitting clear decision
making and timely action. Implementing PWS andhydrological services effectively at AMD and WRD-MEW
would ensure that all users receive timely informationon all timescales available. Implementing formal andregular feedback mechanisms should also be part of thesuccessful delivery of public and hydrological services.
The wide dissemination of hydrometeorological data,
forecasts, and warnings to all users is a key element ofmodern delivery of public and hydrological services.
An essential tool is the AMD and WRD-MEW websites
for access to important meteorological and hydrological information needed by the user community. The
websites should be managed on an operational basis
and kept up to date. Consideration should be given todeveloping color-coded information and pictograms,
which are often the most effective way of communicating warnings.

8.1.2 DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVENATIONAL DROUGHT MONITORINGPROGRAM
More comprehensive agriculture and climate advisory
services, including a drought monitoring program,need to be developed. This includes coordination of
information and knowledge between meteorology
and hydrology and establishes the drought magnitude

8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW

and impact information required by most users in
Afghanistan. The drought monitoring program, while
initiated by the meteorology and hydrology service
providers (AMD and WRD-MEW), should also include
MAIL and ANDMA. Their requirements are essential
in defining drought forecasts and information linked
with decision making.

8.1.3 DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONALFRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICESA National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS)
is defined as a coordinating mechanism enabling thedevelopment and delivery of climate services required
at national and local levels. There is need in eachcountry for a NFCS, guided by the Global Framework
for Climate Services (GFCS), involving practicalities
and specifics for the actual delivery of services at thenational level and for coordination with regional andglobal components of the GFCS. The most important
aspect of the national framework is effective coordination at the national level to ensure the climate services
are authoritative, credible, and dependable, and used
to inform better decision making by the end-users.
The NFCS would involve the key national institutions
collecting and compiling climate observations andother climate-related datasets as well as institutions
undertaking relevant research and providing tailoredinformation, products, and expert advice. Most countries have created a national framework for climate
services in support of the provision of essential climate
information and services to most social and economic
sectors. In Afghanistan, the major activity under sucha framework would potentially include support todisaster risk management (DRM), agriculture, water
management, energy, and public health.

8.2 Institutional Strengthening
and Capacity Building
8.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING
In most developing countries strategic policies that
ensure effective integration of water resources anddisaster risk management are needed. Integration isespecially critical in water stressed regions that aresusceptible to drought and prolonged water shortages.
Such integration is often lacking at the national policy

level. Long-range water resources planning that is fully
integrated with DRM is necessary. DRM in isolation frombroader water resources concerns cannot be effectivein actions for mitigating the loss of life and livelihoods.
The risks of droughts, floods, and climate change, whichpose threats to the security and well-being of citizens,
require shorter lead-time DRM and longer range water
resources planning and management.47
In the case of Afghanistan, it seems advisable that
AMD and WRD-MEW focus operationally on working
level links with ANDMA, MAIL, and MRRD and between
themselves. In this case, there needs to be formal clarity
on the roles and responsibilities of each institution.
Critically, an agency must be formally mandated to leadthe coordination of relevant activities and set agreed
standards. This should be either AMD or WRD-MEW,
depending on the national context and policies.
An ACAA-endorsed stakeholder working group on
meteorology will encourage buy-in from the onset
of development and can evolve over the medium
term of at least five years into an owner’s council. It
will encourage ministries to present meteorologicalrequirements to AMD and jointly agree on priorities
while trusting AMD with the operational implementationof their own sector-specific meteorological projects
that will, when coordinated together, build a central
capability. Funding and ownership usually go hand in
hand, however, as with any other National Meteorological Service, AMD’s relevance to numerous sectors andresultant multi-sector funding should be managed
carefully. This may be achieved by an arrangement
whereby stakeholders through agreement within theowner’s council, provide proportionate funding toward
the operation of AMD.48 Similarly, the establishment
by MEW of a national hydrological services user groupinvolving all stakeholders could facilitate the collection of hydrological requirements and agreement onpriorities. An alternative could be a joint hydromet usergroup to include both meteorological and hydrologicalservice providers as well as stakeholders and users,
as proposed earlier in this Road Map.
The main objectives of NMHSs are: to provide information on weather, climate, and hydrological conditions

47 World Bank Group (2018).
48 Met Office (2012).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

for safety in the air, on land, and at sea; to mitigate
natural disasters; to provide services to weathersensitive economic sectors; and to support national
development. 49 A modern NMHS performs thesefunctions by acquiring:•Comprehensive, high-quality and robust observational networks;•

Efficient data collection and management andrapid information exchange;•

State-of-the-art ICT and computing facilities;•

Sophisticated data analytics schemes and powerful
simulation and forecasting models;•

Improved understanding of meteorological andhydrological phenomena through ongoing scientificresearch;•

Expertise in delivering forecast and warning services
based on impacts of hydrometeorological phenomena, in partnership with relevant governmentorganizations;•

Effective tailoring of services to user needs;•

Effective dissemination systems using multiple
channels to assure the widest dissemination of
warnings, forecasts, and advisory information;•

Efficient public and private service delivery
arrangements;•

Effective communication of the science and practiceof meteorology and hydrology, including limitations,
uncertainties, and applicability of the science andrelated technologies;•

Capacity building across the entire NMHS and forthe users and stakeholders; and•Improved methodologies and algorithms for use of
meteorological, hydrological, and related information in decision making.

Modern NMHSs focus on understanding the user value
chain to better understand users, the decisions theymust make, and how information related to weather,climate, and hydrology is applied to minimize risk andto benefit the society as a whole (see Section 7.1, Value
Chain). As a result of improved service delivery, users
will gain confidence in the capability of the NMHS.

49 WMO, World Bank/GFDRR and USAID (2015).

This will lead to improved relations and increased
demand for services. In addition, better services togovernment agencies and departments will result ingreater recognition of NMHSs as providers of vital
services supporting the economy and society. This will
enable the NMHS to build a more convincing case forinvestment to sustain and further improve the range
and quality of services.
A powerful tool for modern NMHSs to maximize thereturn on investment by ensuring optimum use ofresources is a Concept of Operations (CONOPS). The
CONOPS provides a conceptual overview of the systemand subsystems in an NMHS to achieve the capabilities listed above. The CONOPS is intended to support
the evolution of a fully integrated, modernized, andfunctional NMHS, which provides the level of services
required by its users and stakeholders. Figure 19 inthis Road Map illustrates the system of systems of an
NMHS supported by CONOPS.
At the moment, the AMD and WRD-MEW activities
mainly focus on observation and data collection. As
a result of the past conflicts and ongoing limitations
elaborated elsewhere in this Road Map, these organizations have fallen behind even in collecting critical quality
assured data, while producing forecasts, delivering
services, and making the technological and scientificprogress needed to use best practices and standards
in delivering services to a set of users based on theirdiverse demands have not developed. The step fromdata collection to information production demands a
strengthening of the rest of the system of systems in an
integrated manner as shown in Figure 19 (i.e., modeling,
forecasting, and service delivery systems supportedby the ICT, QMS, capacity building, and technology
infusion systems). The institutional strengthening
component of the Road Map will aim to invest in the
improvement of institutional arrangements at the AMD
and MEW for enhancing their performance in line withinternational best practices.

8.2.2 CAPACITY BUILDING
Building capacity to improve the sustainability of themodernization of WRD-MEW and AMD is indispensable and a foundation block for other systems andfunctions as shown in Figure 19 of this Road Map.
For a strong and effective WRD-MEW and AMD,continuous access to new skills for all staff through8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW

provision of short- and long-term training courses athome and abroad and on-the-job training is essential.
A major challenge for WRD-MEW, AMD is to create astrong professional meteorological and hydrologicalworkforce for the benefit of their main stakeholders
and other users. A steady supply of meteorologists,hydrologists, and related specialists at the B.Sc.,
M.Sc., and higher educational level with the abilities
to perform at the required skill levels is required. In
this regard, strengthening the hydromet programs at
Kabul University and Kabul Polytechnic University,
which are the main sources for human resources at
AMD and WRD-MEW at present and probably in theforeseeable future is critical.
Educating stakeholders/end-users in the application ofhydrometeorological products for decision making isequally essential. The end-users’ inability to understandand interpret weather and climate products for decision
making in economic sectors is a limiting factor, anduser education should be implemented to overcome
this gap. Educating the public to better understandwarnings, probability forecasts, preparation, andawareness is very important in the last mile delivery
and use of information, especially for flooding, which
is a major hydrometeorological threat in Afghanistan.
User education should include workshops, open days
to encourage visits by the public, school visits, thedistribution of flyers, publications, and public service
videos, and posting educational materials on therelevant organizations’ websites and the public domain.

8.3 Modernizationof Observation Infrastructure,
Data Management Systems,
and ForecastingThis component aims to upgrade and expand themeteorological, agrometeorological, and hydrologicalobservations networks and ensure that these networks
are well functioning and are interoperable; modernize
data management, communications, and ICT systems;
improve weather and hydrological forecasting processes and numerical prediction systems; and refurbish
offices and facilities. It should be noted that while thefollowing sections provide a description of the ideal
cases for different systems, the particular situation of

Afghanistan should be carefully considered to derive
the optimum benefit from what is actually possible inthe country. In addition, modernization of each systemshould be broken down to manageable packages forphased implementation.

8.3.1 METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONINFRASTRUCTURE
The increasing risks of floods and droughts becauseof climate change will require better forecasts andresponse. While it is understood that very large
expenditure on a Doppler radar network or considerable numbers of automatic weather stations (AWSs) is
not possible in the current situation due to budgetaryand security constraints, modernization should focus
on rehabilitation of the existing synoptic networkand eventual establishment of an upper air observing station; it also will introduce a certain degree ofautomation of observations to improve nowcastingand very short-range forecasts. Having said that, it isnecessary to point out that a ground-based observation network only provides moderate value for moneyfrom a weather and climate perspective. Access tosatellite technology can now provide a far better
analysis of snowpack and water resource relevant for
many sectors, except for the aviation that necessitatescomprehensive ground-based observation systems atlarge airports. A ground-based observational network
can become high value when assimilated into a common
information layer through NWP that then offers a richer,more useable, sector specific output for forecasters,
or when used as ground truth to calibrate radar data.
Therefore, single (or even multiple) ground observation from an area of interest does not represent thefull picture for, say, water management, without being
used as part of a common information layer. Hence,
all meteorological ground observations gathered
within individual sector projects would be made far
more effective for Afghanistan as a whole through acoordinating meteorological authority.50 Therefore, acareful assessment of the future needs for data may
result in the consideration of a reorganization of the
network, which should consider the requirements of
the users and constraints due to security issues. A revision of operational procedures should be undertaken
to consider the different needs for data at different
50 Met Office (2012).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

locations. Regular preventative maintenance procedures to be carried out by trained personnel shouldbe established once the existing equipment has beenrehabilitated or replaced.

8.3.2 HYDROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONINFRASTRUCTURE
While the number of gauging stations is still limited,
WRD-MEW is in the position to start developing basic
products and services using data from the existinggauges. In order to do so, more real-time hydrological
data are needed for water management activities andforecasting of floods and droughts. The extent andspeed of network expansion should be proportional
to WRD-MEW capacity in operating and maintaining
stations, which can be assessed through operational
status of existing automatic stations. The real-time
information is critical for the fast-responding watersheds (with areas less than 200 square kilometers) andfor flash flood forecasting. The hydrometric network
equipment needs to be upgraded to include floatoperated shaft encoders, data loggers, and sustainable
date transmission mechanisms to ensure that the early
warning systems can function properly. A revision of
the operating procedures is necessary to consider theneeds at different locations. The need for operational
data at the existing stream gauge sites and for dataloggers should be assessed.
Modernization of the hydrological observing network
will allow the rehabilitation and technical re-equippingof the hydrological and sediment network, including
the field communication network, and the provision of
special equipment for hydrological measurements (e.g.,
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADPC), boats, current meters, laboratory equipment, and stream gauges
equipped with data transmission). Regular preventativeand operational maintenance programs for all equipment
need to be in place after modernizing the network.
Strengthening the status of data logging and transmission will allow the provision of reliable end-to-end
data communication, the delivery of forecast andwarning services to users and the implementationof operational deterministic flood models. WMO’s
recommended guidelines on establishing operating
and maintenance (O&M) programs of NMHSs should betaken into consideration. In a modernized hydrologicalobserving system all new stream gauge installations
should also include recording rain gauges in the contributing watersheds. Real-time access to these rainfall
data should be established and telemetry added toensure that the data are automatic and operational at
all times to trigger flash flood warnings.

8.3.3 DATA MANAGEMENT, COMMUNICATION,
AND ICT SYSTEM
A readily accessible, historical, digital database ofhydrological and meteorological parameters is urgently
needed to develop a range of warning and forecast
services related to extreme weather and flood events
that impact many sectors of Afghanistan’s economy.
The modernization and expansion of the AMD and
WRD-MEW observation network and improvement
in forecasting and service delivery will require significant improvements in ICT capacity. Communications
equipment and computers, harmonized databasemanagement systems for weather, climate, and hydrological data, including servers, software, web access,and social media, and AMD remote sensing and GIS,
including the satellite downlink system, will be needed
to establish a modern software/hardware environment.
Such an environment will provide efficient and timely
collection of data from the observational network andwill speed up reception and processing of information
products from leading international meteorologicalcenters enabling higher resolution products and more
information to be available to AMD forecasters.

8.3.4 METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) coupled to an
extensive in-situ and remote-sensing observational network (satellite, radar, upper air, and ground) underpins
the information layer of an NMHS and foundation ofmodern forecasting. It is a cost and resource intensive
business because at its fully developed mode, it requires
multimillion-dollar super-computer infrastructure(with associated research and technical support). It isarguable whether Afghanistan would need to develop
such a high degree of capability in the foreseeable
future as many developed NMHSs are opening up
their information provision to assist less developed
countries. In addition, different model outputs fromvarious global and regional centers are accessible to8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW

nearly all countries. It is vital that the best possible
training be provided in developing countries to extract
optimum benefit from all the available and accessible
tools as part of their modernization strategies.
Current forecasting at the AMD is based on output
from METCAP+, a visualization tool designed to be
a complete working environment for the operational
forecaster. The results of blending the in-situ, remotesensing and model data are to produce three-day
forecasts for a few cities in Afghanistan. No objective
verification of forecasts is performed, although someverification of forecast precipitation and temperature
is performed against observations for 15 cities. No
nowcasts, and medium- or long-range forecasts areproduced. As part of the longer term modernizationplans for AMD, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive process for operational weather forecasting as is practiced in a well-functioning developing
national forecast center. Such a modernization process
will allow access to NWP digital data and products(short-, medium-, extended- and long-range forecasts) from a global center (e.g., ECMWF) and movefrom deterministic to ensemble prediction systems(EPS) for production of probabilistic forecasts; therequired software for data handling (license); NWP
dynamic downscaling (including data assimilation),
production of regional and site-specific forecasts anduninterrupted broadband Internet. While access to the
ECMWF Global Model digital data (9 km resolution)
will represent a great step forward for AMD, it should
be noted that the required license costs €42,000(approx. US$51,400) per year. Other tools for themodernization of forecasting will include forecasterworkstation software products, implementation ofreal-time forecast process monitoring and verification,
NWP post-processing, nowcasting and impact-based
forecasting techniques. Training is required both in theuse and interpretation of these products and tools, aswell as in the overall forecasting process supported
by standard operating procedures (SOP).
In addition to the short-range forecasts, there is a needto develop (monthly and seasonal) long-range forecasts(LRF). The AMD should be able to access LRFs, forexample on the ECMWF website, and on the WMO Lead
Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble(at https://www.wmolc.org/) which provides accessto LRFs from 12 Global Producing Centers. The AMD
should eventually develop expertise also in Regional

Climate Downscaling (RCD) techniques, which willallow it to provide high resolution climate information
on a more regional and national scale and with muchgreater detail and more accurate representation of
localized extreme events.

8.3.5 HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND
HYDROLOGICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
Flood forecasting and warning as a focused activity inthe hydrometeorological sector is a relatively recent
development. This may be an evidence of the growing
seriousness of flood impacts, both as a result of greater
financial investment and increased population. Floodforecasting requires an understanding of both meteorological and hydrological behavior for the particularconditions of the country in question. While the ultimate
responsibility lies with the appropriate government
agencies at a national level, the information needs to bemade available at more localized levels, such as a river
basin or a center of population. To form an effective
real-time forecasting system, the basic structures need
to be linked together in an organized manner. The main
components of a modern and well-functioning national
flood forecasting and warning system include:51•

Establishment of a network of automatic or manualhydrometric stations linked to a central control bysome form of telemetry to collect real-time data
for the prediction of flood severity;•

Provision of rainfall forecasts (quantity and timing)
for which NWP models are necessary;•

Flood forecasting model software linked to theobserving network and operating in real time;•

Preparation of forecast information and warning
messages, including expected impact;•

Dissemination and communication of such messages
including what action should be taken;•

Interpretation of the forecast and flood observations to determine impacts on communities andinfrastructure;•

Response to the warnings by the agencies andcommunities involved; and•Review of the warning system and improvement
as necessary after the flood events.

51 WMO (2011).

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

Many rivers normally pass over flood-affected areas andtherefore river management will contribute to managing
the flood risk. A Decision Support System (DSS) which
integrates all the key basins and provides the basin scale
rainfall forecasts, and hydrological forecast at selected
locations, will be useful for various purposes including
flood forecasting, irrigation management, and reservoir
operations. Inflow forecasting with enough lead timeenables the engineers, operators, and decision makers
to manage the reservoir operations in an effective
manner and ensure minimum impact resulting fromextreme flows downstream of the reservoir and savewater for drier times of the year. Such forecasting will
require advanced technology such as digital elevation
modeling developed using Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR) and the effective use of available tools suchas GIS. The solutions used in developing DSS should
accommodate water quality monitoring especiallyduring low flows to ensure public health. In addition,
the set of solutions would require reservoir operation
to minimize flood damages and also to keep the riverlevels within an acceptable level.
The generic steps to develop such DSS are:•Selecting priority river basins based on recent
observations of flood damages;•

Monitoring of water quality and river flow whilestrengthening the monitoring network and water
quality testing facilities;•

Developing digital elevation models (DEM) for thepriority basins using LiDAR/Drone/technology
and GIS;•

Identifying vulnerable areas and properties including
houses using GIS/GPS technology;•

Preparing and issuing timely rainfall forecasts fromthe NMHS; and•Establishing and operating in collaboration with
the DRM and NMHS/NHS a flood warning system
to inform down to the household level. DRM and
NMHS/NHS (through their public weather channels)
will ensure timely dissemination of the information
to the public.

Facilities required for such DSS includes modernizing
the operation center/control room in the NMHS/NHS
with necessary equipment, obtaining the facilities tomeasure water quality at the NHS, installing water

quality monitoring equipment coupled to current river
flow measuring stations on a priority basis, training
and capacity building of the staff for the above tasks,
and improving the communication system for effective
sharing of data.
Introduction of hydrological forecasting in Afghanistan
is crucial to respond to requirements from manyusers. WRD-MEW needs to introduce capacities inhydrological modeling as a precondition of developing water management strategies; establishing floodand drought risk management; and extending water
management systems and optimizing their operation.
It will be necessary to evaluate hydrological simulation
models for usability in the Afghanistan context andto select and acquire adequate models. The existingstatistical tools for forecasts which may be employedin Afghanistan will continue to be in use in the near
future, but these tools have weaknesses. Deterministic
snow models can be used as an alternative to statisticalmodels with the help of high-resolution satellite data
(e.g., snow cover, snow depth and water equivalent insnow). By introducing new hydrological models andsoftware packages for short- and long-term flow forecasting (which have been tested in other mountainous
countries) and by enhancing technical capacities formodeling, a higher level of quality of forecasts can beensured. Other simulation models for water resources
systems should be tested for setting up water balancesand planning for water resources allocations, river
basin water management, and prognoses of future
conditions. An important task will be evaluating theeffects of climate change in rainfall and streamflow
by deterministic models driven with plausible climatechange scenarios. Selection of a modeling systemshould include the availability of training, documentation, technical support, and calibration.
Deterministic real-time hydrological models for theflood-prone river basins can produce a flood hydrographthat provides users with much more information than thestatistical relationships. In addition, with the increasing
accuracy and reliability of meteorological models andquantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), a 24-hour,seven-days-a-week flood watch alerting advisory
could be added. A Doppler radar would be essential
to specify the location of storm cells, to estimate thespatial differences in rainfall intensities, and to provide
input data for flash flood alert systems. Flood early
warning, to be effective, should provide adequate

8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW

lead time for institutions and communities at risk toundertake preparatory and mitigating actions. Currently,
flood warning capacity in Afghanistan is limited andinadequate for preserving livelihoods, or for making
early decisions for flood preparedness and mitigation.
A DSS in Afghanistan will be based on a probabilistic
flood forecasting system that couples an atmosphericmodel capable of providing probabilistic forecasts(very short to long timescales, e.g., ECMWF) to provide
high resolution rainfall forecasts (AMD), hydrological/
hydraulic models (MEW), data on vulnerability ofpeople and assets (ANDMA or other government
ministries), telemetry observation system networks(MEW, AMD), and a joint mechanism for production
and dissemination of flood forecast and bulletins(MEW, AMD and ANDMA). Capacity building in all thepartner organizations to develop, install, and run thissystem is key in the success of the system. Capacity
to access the full suite of ECMWF data is required.
Sufficient Internet bandwidth, a shared server to store
these data, and sufficient computing resources to run
the hydrological/hydraulic modeling system as an
ensemble is necessary. With the inclusion of the Flash
Flood Guidance System (FFGS) and the Global Flood

Awareness System (GloFAS) of ECMWF, the capabilities of the national ensemble flood forecasting will be
extended to create a comprehensive ensemble flood
forecasting for Afghanistan.
In summary, the modernization of hydrological forecasting should provide new hydrological tools andinformation as follows:•

Seasonal forecasts, based on remote sensing dataand snow modeling, including technical facilities
such as servers, software licenses, training, quality
management, dissemination of products;•

River and flash flood warning and alert systems,
including technical facilities such as new sensors(e.g., water level recording based on radar precipitation stations with data automatic transfer), weather
radar data, data transmission systems, visualizationinterfaces with servers and hydrological models,
software licenses, training, quality management,
and dissemination of results); and•Operational water balances for the main river
basins, including data from the main water users
and water management facilities.

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9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOST

he steps outlined in this Road Map to modernize
the AMD and WRD-MEW are based on extensive
discussions with the AMD, WRD-MEW, andtheir key stakeholders. These discussions reveal
gaps between the requirements of the user community and the capabilities of these organizations
to respond to those needs. These steps are meant
to guide the transformation of the AMD and MEW
to a fit-for-purpose organization whose standards ofprovision of products and services and the deliveryof those services will be raised, to the extent possible
within the context of Afghanistan, to respond to user
requirements. Clearly, AMD and WRD-MEW strive toprovide products of quality, diversity, and coverage
to users and the Afghan population. However, indoing so, they face many challenges in: (i) securing
adequate and sustained funding while delivering highquality and useful products and services; (ii) having
sufficiently trained technical staff; (iii) having accessto appropriate technical assistance and guidance;and (iv) ensuring that their capacity could keep
pace with and meet the ever-growing demand fortheir services.
AMD and WRD-MEW are in urgent need of clearly
demonstrating to the government funding authorities
the importance of the underpinning observation anddata processing infrastructure, and access to modern
forecasting tools and technologies which are essential
for providing services and advisory guidance to theAfghan population. Furthermore, AMD and WRD-MEW
should in a more rigorous and better understood fashionargue the case for the social and economic benefitsof the services they provide.
To compete for and optimally use scarce publicresources, AMD and WRD-MEW are increasingly
required to justify their continuing operation andthe investment of public funds to support their basic
infrastructure and suite of services and to demonstrate
how their products and services are benefiting thecountry in the face of natural disasters (e.g., droughts

and floods) and economic difficulties. To demonstrate
the benefits to users, however, AMD and WRD-MEW
must first be able to provide fit-for-purpose services
to the satisfaction of those users, which they cannot
do unless there is a substantial upgrading of theirinfrastructure and services. This is a cycle whereby
the gap in available resources and ability to serve theirmandates keeps widening for AMD and WRD-MEW.
A major guidance of this Road Map and the scenarios
it presents is for AMD and WRD-MEW to have a more
systematic basis to set strategic and forward-looking
priorities that are based on available (and potential
future) funding to improve their service delivery. Futurechallenges may include the impacts of climate changewith resulting increases in floods and droughts, as wellas the emergence of new technologies and economic
evolution in the country.
The consultations with stakeholders have clearly
indicated requirements for more accurate, timely,
location-specific, well-articulated, and useable information. This has been the basis of the different scenarios
proposed in this Road Map. Certain steps can betaken quickly and with considerably limited investments and effort to enhance the utility of weather-,climate-, and hydrology-related information for users.
Examples include further training of AMD and WRDMEW technical staff to access, understand, and use
readily available products and guidance from various
centers for improved forecast and warning services;and modifying the formats of products, using simpler
language and avoiding jargon or changing the time ofthe product dissemination based on feedback from user
surveys. Other changes may require a series of actions
over medium or long timescales and require more
substantial investments. One example is introducing
capacities for hydrological modeling.
As described in Section 7 of this Road Map, the modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW is being guided bythree main components: (i) enhancement of service

72

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

delivery; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity
building; and (iii) modernization of observation infrastructure, data management systems, and forecasting.
The development of a Concept of Operations (CONOPS)
will be essential to guide and support the transformation of the AMD and WRD-MEW. The CONOPS is basedon the principle of a system of systems (Figure 19)
and proposes various alternatives, depending on
the level of financial and human resources and otherconstraints, for the transformation of each individual
system. Based on their stated requirements, the usersof AMD and WRD-MEW services should be provided
with the best possible products and services, and toachieve that objective, it is necessary to launch a fullmodernization program. This will form Scenario 1 in the
Road Map and aims to bring AMD and WRD-MEW up
to the level of well-functioning developing countries’
capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warning
services to meet the needs of a spectrum of users.
The alternatives however, should be considered foreach system if there are not sufficient resources toprovide this full modernization. It will be necessary toprioritize the most important changes in the systems
to go forward and to consider where the program
should be scaled back in favor of those priorities. The
emerging solution may be to trim down from the fullmodernization to a relatively modest improvement inservices in consultation with users and matched with acorresponding reduction in their level of expectation.
This is Scenario 2 in the Road Map: an intermediatelevel of investment to achieve a modest improvement in capabilities to provide weather, climate,and hydrological services to meet the needs of themost important users such as disaster management,
agriculture, aviation, and water resources management. Finally, if there are not enough resources to doa moderate modernization, then it will be necessary
to choose an alternative which will give a minimum
basic improvement through technical assistance. Thisis Scenario 3 in the Road Map and represents a set of
low-cost, high-priority activities options. It focuses on
improving basic public services based on strengthening
the AMD and WRD-MEW capacity and introducing
basic affordable new technologies. In this way the
CONOPS will guide the process through considering
a whole range of alternatives and finally choosing theone which is affordable and yet can provide the best
possible services to users. It should be noted thatthese scenarios are not exclusive of each other, but

are interdependent and if conducted in phases, theybuild on each other to contribute to the overall goalof the modernization progressing from Scenario 3 to
Scenario 1. That is, Scenario 2 assumes the accomplishment of objectives in Scenario 3 and builds on them.
Similarly, Scenario 1 assumes the achievement of goals
in Scenarios 2 and 3 and builds on those. On the other
hand, if resources are made available to undertake themodernization as a whole independent package under
Scenario 1, then this will comprise the entire activities
as described under Scenarios 2 and 3. Similarly, acomplete modernization package under Scenario 2
will comprise also activities contained in Scenario 3.
Based on the World Bank’s experiences of the NMHS
modernization in other countries, and considering
the special circumstances of Afghanistan, a strategic
approach to the modernization will be the use of International Advisors who will work alongside the Afghan
employees of AMD and MEW to provide ongoing
advice, guidance, and assistance in the implementationof the different scenarios to ensure that the required
capacity and expertise is built in different areas of theseorganizations. The three scenarios of modernizationof AMD are presented below.

9.1 Scenario 1: Advanced
Modernization
This scenario presents the investment needed to bring
AMD and WRD-MEW up to the level of well-functioning
developing countries’ capabilities for providing data,
forecasts, and warning services to meet user needs(focused on improving hydromet and climate services).
This scenario covers the three components of modernization. Most of the effort under this scenario is expended
to fully utilize all the systems that are in place and hence
the increase in services delivery and quality management
systems. It is expected that the implementation of this
scenario will require at least seven years.

9.1.1 ENHANCEMENT OF THE AMD
AND MEW SERVICE DELIVERY PROCESS
A first step for enhancement of service delivery is toensure that users of meteorological and hydrologicalinformation and services are included in product73

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSplanning and design from the outset and that thederived information and services respond to user needs.
This process will be guided through developing andimplementing a national Strategy for Service Delivery(SSD) based on the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery
and its Implementation Plan. The WMO Strategy explains
the importance of service delivery and defines thevarious stages and elements for a continued process
for developing and delivering services with the viewto creating a service-oriented culture in NMHSs. The
Implementation Plan guides the NMHSs through anumber of steps in assessing and improving their current
service delivery in line with their strategic objectives.
An initial step in the development of a national SSD for
AMD and WRD-MEW would be to assess their current
level of service delivery using the Service Delivery
Progress Model of the WMO Strategy document(Annex 2). The next step would be close consultation
with AMD’s and WRD-MEW’s key stakeholders (DRM,
agriculture, water resource management, transport) togather more specific requirements, in addition to thegeneral information already available. This could be done
through the establishment of a hydrometeorologicaluser group to ensure interaction between providers
and users of services, to provide direction for building the AMD and WRD-MEW capacity, and to help
resolve challenges. An action plan with well-defined
milestones would then be created for responding to theunfulfilled user requirements. The user group should
be supported through:•Establishing a coordination platform and communication channels between the service providers
and users to support modernization, effectiveness,and sustainability of the services;•

Supporting users to identify their respective data,
product, and service needs;•

Proposing improvements of exiting or developmentof new products and services to meet needs;•

Developing the capacity of users of products andservices to maximize the benefits of data, products,
and services; and•Supporting awareness and outreach programs
targeted at decision makers and sector users tohighlight the benefits of the services.

Enhancement of the AMD and WRD-MEW service
delivery process will focus on the improvement of publicweather, climate, hydrological, and agrometeorologicalservices. It will include: development and implementation of a national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD)that draws on guidance from the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan; developmentof new and improvement of an existing set of basic andspecialized user-tailored products, including evaluationof forecast utility and user satisfaction; development
and operationalization of Common Alerting Protocol(CAP) capability at AMD, WRD-MEW, and ANDMA
to standardize the production and dissemination of
warnings; improvement of dissemination mechanisms
to communities; pilot testing and operationalizationof impact-based forecast and warning services inselected vulnerable districts/cities; strengthening
end-to-end EWS (including the last mile), including
a regular post-event review process; development ofan Agriculture and Climate Advisory Service (ACAS)
portal, including provision of hardware and software;
further development of National Framework for
Climate Services; and development of a digital libraryof climate-relevant information. In addition, based onan evaluation of AMD opportunities to initiate publicprivate engagement, strategies will be developed to
introduce new sustainable business models such as
fee-based service provision.
The estimated budget under this scenario will cover thecost of the new equipment, tools, vehicles, instrumentation, software, and facilities. As in the intermediate
modernization option, the O&M budget under this
scenario should be used for a proper life-cycle management of observation infrastructure and facilities. This
includes the supply of spare parts, consumables, andfuel; covering the increased communication, power,
and other operating costs; and quality control andquality assurance procedures. Considering that AMD
and WRD-MEW operations under this scenario will bebased on the broad use of more sophisticated instruments (e.g., Doppler radar), modern technologies, andresearch, the AMD and WRD-MEW workforce should
be further strengthened by hiring more qualified staff
and continued technical training.

9.1.2 INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING
AND CAPACITY BUILDING
Under this scenario it is crucial to have the key national,
provincial, and local government agencies to work inclose cooperation if forecasting and warning services
are to be fully effective. The interdepartmental relations

74

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

also need to be strengthened through regular contacts
and communication channels. Roles and responsibilitiesof each agency must be sufficiently well defined to
avoid ambiguities, especially during severe weatherrelated events. A QMS system will be establishedacross the entire institutional and operational systemsof AMD and WRD-MEW to develop and implement
management of the organization’s delivery of products
and services. There is a need to establish formal communication mechanisms involving all stakeholders.
Establishment of Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs)
among service providers and key stakeholders will help
pave the way for such negotiations and agreements.
Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) will enable the
AMD and WRD-MEW to codify how alerts, warnings,
and other operational products are issued. They alsoenable stakeholders to define their responses to thevarious levels of alerts and warnings improving the
response to meteorological and hydrological hazards.
SOPs should be constructed to align with WMO
guidelines and global good practices.
Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building will
aim to improve the performance of AMD and MEW inline with international best practices through: establishment of a new concept of operations (CONOPS)aligned with this scenario; improvement of a legal andregulatory framework for AMD and MEW operations;improvement of the AMD and WRD-MEW internalmanagement system, including human resources
planning and management as well as strengthening
and completion of the quality management system;
evaluation of AMD and WRD-MEW opportunities todevelop a new business strategy for more sustainable
operations; development of technical capacity andeducation through a training plan for AMD and WRDMEW to build/enhance the required skills to cope with
the innovation, modernization, and sustainability of theenhanced systems (e.g., on-the-job training, training
at other institutions, twinning with developed NMHSs,
fellowships, higher degree courses); enhancing capacityof national educational institutions to provide rigoroushydromet education and training, stakeholders training;
public education and outreach; further development of
AMD and WRD-MEW websites, publication of bulletinsand annual reports, work with schools; and cooperation
with universities and research institutes.

One example of institutional strengthening through theregulatory framework would be establishing a mandate
for providing hydrological planning tools. The operation of the hydrological network and the descriptionof the current hydrological conditions and short or
longer term forecasts are the main MEW activities.
To transform the hydrological data into information,
new hydrological planning tools are needed. For thispurpose, MEW responsibilities for countrywide assessments of hydrological conditions in the form of waterbalances, hydrological data for flood risk management,
drought forecasts and warnings, and other derived
information have to be specified as a priority. Close
cooperation will be needed between AMD and MEW
to achieve this goal.

9.1.3 MODERNIZATION OF OBSERVATIONINFRASTRUCTURE, DATA MANAGEMENTSYSTEMS, AND FORECASTING
Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure, DataManagement Systems and Forecasting is a substantial undertaking. For the observation infrastructure
it may include: expanding and upgrading surface
meteorological network as required (e.g., AWSs,
climate reference network, lightning detection system,and snow measurements) and supporting equipment;
meteorological equipment to improve air transportation safety at international airports; installation of
one meteorological radar and infrastructure support;
reactivation of the existing but nonfunctioning upper
air station rehabilitating and technical equipping of thehydrological and sediment network; special equipment
for hydrological measurements (e.g., Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), boats, current meters,laboratory equipment, and stream gauges equippedwith data transmission); establishment of an AMD and
MEW calibration facility; modernization of agrometeorological network; and vehicles and tools to support
AMD and MEW field operations and maintenance. For amodernized data processing system, the following may
be included: communication and computer equipment
for acquisition, storage, archiving, processing, andvisualization for weather, climate, and hydrological
data (servers and workstations); data management
systems for weather, climate, and hydrological data
(servers, software, web access, and social media) toform common databases/platforms. Meteorological75

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSand hydrological modernization including the required
training and capacity building may include use by AMD
and WRD-MEW of internationally available products
where possible (to achieve economic efficiency) suchas satellite products, numerical weather prediction(NWP)/ensemble prediction systems (NWP/EPS)
data, and products and required software for data
handling (i.e., license); flood forecasts from the Global
Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) operated by the
ECMWF; uninterrupted broadband internet; equipment for weather forecasting, including forecasterworkstation software products and implementationof real-time forecast process monitoring, quality
control of observations; introducing nowcasting
using radar data; seasonal forecasts based on remotesensing data and snow modeling, including servers,
licenses for software, training, quality management,

and dissemination of products; flash flood warningand alert systems, including technical facilities forcollecting data from new sensors; operational waterbalances for the main river basins; and refurbishment
of AMD and MEW facilities and offices. It should be
noted that this list is neither exhaustive nor mandatory
and is meant mostly to provide food for thought andreflection on what may be needed in Afghanistan formodernizing infrastructure and technologies along apathway with the ultimate goal of improving hydromet
service provision to the Afghan population.
The capabilities of the system following interventionsin Scenario 1 are shown in Figure 41 and Figure 42,
respectively. These are indicated as percentages inTable 11 and Table 12 relative to full capacity (100 percent) of an advanced NMHS.

FIGURE 41 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Upper air systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range
forecasting system

Nowcasting model
systemShort-range
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Medium-range
forecasting system

Radar system
Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Long-range
forecasting system

Data comms
systems
Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems
Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Service delivery systems
Public weather
services system
G2G disastermanagement
service system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

G2G agriculture
service system
G2G water andenergy management
services system

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met/hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

76

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

TABLE 11 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems
Global data

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

GlobalNWP

Severe hazard
forecasting

90%

60%

75%

Service
Delivery
Systems
Publicweather
services

Quality
Management
Systems
Institutional
management

ICT Systems
Data communication
95%

99%

Capacity
Building
Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback
Service systems
for public
75%

80%
90%
Surface obs.

Regional
NWP

Nowcasting
system

90%

20%

90%

Disastermanagement
services

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

Stakeholder
institutions

99%

80%

90%

Service systems
for national
and provincial
governments

80%75%Upper airsystemNowcastingmodel
system20%

Very short-range Agriculture
forecasting
service80%

Hydromodeling

Short-range
forecasting

70%

80%

Water andpower
management
serviceMedium-range
forecasting

Aviation
services

70%75%

Long-range
forecasting

Climateservices

70%

60%

15%

80%
Data
management
and archiving
95%
External data

End-user training
and outreach

Service systems
for businesses

90%

30%

90%
80%

50%
Radar system

Communications

90%

77

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSFIGURE 42 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hydro hazard
forecasting systems

Public hydrologicalservices system

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system/
flash flood guidanceG2G disastermanagement
service system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range flood
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Short-range flood
forecasting system

Radar system
Medium-range flood
forecasting system

Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems

Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

G2G agriculture
service system
G2G water andpower management
services system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

Long-range flood
forecasting system

Data comms
systems

Institutional management
systems

Service delivery systems

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

78

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

TABLE 12 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

Global datasystemSevere hazard
forecasting

70%

50%
(avalanches,
mudslides,
droughts)

Surface obs.

Service
Delivery
Systems

Quality
Management
Systems

Publichydrologic
services
70%

Institutional
management

Data communication
95%

99%

Capacity
Building
Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Service systems
for public
75%

90%
Disastermanagement
services70%

90%

ICT Systems

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

Stakeholder
institutions

Service systems
for national
and provincial
governments

99%

80%

90%

Communications

End-user training
and outreach

Service systems
for businesses

90%

30%

75%
Very short-range Agriculture
forecasting
service

90%
70%

70%

Hydro
modeling

Short-range
forecasting

80%

70%

Water andpower
management
service70%

Datamanagement
and archiving

Medium-range
forecasting70%

95%
External data

Long-range
forecasting

90%
70%

9.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate
Modernization
This is the intermediate investment scenario between
Scenarios 1 and 3. This scenario aims to achieve a modest improvement in capabilities to provide weather,climate, and hydrological services to meet the needsof at least three most important users such as disastermanagement, agriculture, and water resources management. This scenario builds on the achievementsof Scenario 3 and assumes that the activities neededto achieve critical minimal capabilities to provide
weather, climate, and hydrological services havebeen accomplished. If on the other hand this scenario
represents a combination of technical assistance and amodest scale of modernization, then all activities under
Scenario 3 have to be included under this scenario.
These include development/enhancement of WRDMEW and AMD’s capacity in the use and interpretationof available and accessible tools and technologies;
developing a national Strategy for Service Delivery(SSD); establishing a hydrometeorological user group;developing a CONOPS for Scenario 2; enhancing
service provision to key government stakeholders;training; accessing and full usage of NWP data andproducts from other centers to improve short-range
weather forecasting and introduction to impactbased forecasting; enhanced use of remote sensing

79

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSFIGURE 43 • Capabilities of AMD System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Upper air systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range
forecasting system

Nowcasting model
systemShort-range
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Medium-range
forecasting system

Radar system
Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Long-range
forecasting system

Data comms
systems
Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems
Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Service delivery systems
Public weather
services system
G2G disastermanagement
service system
G2G agriculture
service system

G2G water andenergy management
services system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met/hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

products for hydrological services; enhancing longrange forecasting and hydrological forecasting; andprocuring computing and communication equipment
as required.

4. Modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW data
management, communication and ICT systems;

In addition to the specific activities listed under
Scenario 3, under this scenario the following may beundertaken:

6. Enhanced training on impact-based forecasting;

1. Rehabilitation of high priority meteorologicalobservation stations and addition of stations instrategic areas within the available resources;
2. Optimization of the hydrological network in linewith major requirements of water management andinstallation of new automated water level recorders
as required, within the available resources;
3. Replacement of water level recording systems
at selected gauges and implementation of datatransmissions;5. Training on Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
and probabilistic forecasting;

7. Initiation of hydrological forecasting using floodmodeling;
8. Establishment of a national framework for climate
services;
9. Training of stakeholders and end-users to build
their understanding and capacity in using hydromet
information;
10. Expanding the QMS to cover most operational andinstitutional systems in AMD and WRD-MEW; and11. Initiating/strengthening monitoring and feedback
systems.

80

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

TABLE 13 • Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems
Global data

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

GlobalNWP

Severe hazard
forecasting

70%

60%

60%

Service
Delivery
Systems
Publicweather
services

Quality
Management
Systems
Institutional
management

ICT Systems
Data communication
50%

70%

Capacity
Building
Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback
Service systems
for public
20%

60%
60%
Disastermanagement
services

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

Stakeholder
institutions

50%

50%

60%

Service systems
for national
and provincial
governments

50%
20%
Surface obs.

Regional
NWP

Very short-range Agriculture
forecasting
service

7%

60%

50%

Hydro
modeling

Short-range
forecasting

10%

60%

Water andpower
management
service50%
Datamanagement
and archiving

Communications

End-user training
and outreach

40%
60%

75%
50%
External data

Medium-range
forecasting70%
30%
Long-range
forecasting30%

The budget for this scenario should include the estimated cost of the new equipment, tools, instrumentation, and software. The O&M budget for this scenario(approximately 10 percent of the total budget) should
be used for, among others, spare parts, consumables,
fuel, increased communication, power, and otheroperating costs. AMD has to recruit and train additional staff and to retrain the existing staff including
forecasters, modelers, ICT specialists, engineers andcommunication specialists, in order to cope with theintroduction of new technologies in the department.
Additional trained hydrologists should be recruited
through WRD-MEW as needed. While it is difficult
to project the exact number and composition of thestaff required in the future, it is evident that this will be
another significant budget item. The implementationof this scenario should be completed within at least
four years.

81

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSFIGURE 44 • Scenario 2 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hydro hazard
forecasting systems

Public hydrologicalservices system

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system/
flash flood guidanceG2G disastermanagement
service system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range flood
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Short-range flood
forecasting system

Radar system
Medium-range flood
forecasting system

Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems

Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

G2G agriculture
service system
G2G water andpower management
services system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

Long-range flood
forecasting system

Data comms
systems

Institutional management
systems

Service delivery systems

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Interna research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

The expected capabilities of MEW through the activities carried out under Scenario 1 are reflected in the
resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 43
and Table 13.

The expected capabilities of MEW through the activities carried out under Scenario 2 are reflected in the
resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 44
and Table 14.

82

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

TABLE 14 • Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems

Modeling
Systems

Global data

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems
Severe hazard
forecasting

60%
30%(avalanches,
mudslides,
droughts)
Surface obs.

Service
Delivery
Systems

Quality
Management
Systems

Publichydrologic
services

Institutional
management

Data communication
60%

40%

Capacity
Building
Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Service systems
for public
30%

70%
70%
Disastermanagement
services70%

ICT Systems

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

40%

60%

Stakeholder
institutions
50%

Service systems
for national
and provincial
governments

70%
30%
Very short-range Agriculture
forecasting
serviceCommunications

End-user training
and outreach

60%
30%

70%

Hydro
modeling

Short-range
forecasting

40%

30%

Water andpower
management
service

50%

70%
Data
management
and archiving

Medium-range
forecasting
30%

60%
External data

Long-range
forecasting

60%
30%

9.3 Scenario 3: Technical
Assistance for High Priority
and Immediate Needs
Low-cost, high-priority activities are needed to achieve
critical minimal capabilities to provide weather, climate,and hydrological services (focused on improving basic
public services based on strengthening WRD-MEW
and AMD’s capacity in the use and interpretation ofavailable and accessible tools and technologies andintroducing basic affordable new technologies) as
indicated below. Activities focus on: developing anational Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD); establishing a hydrometeorological user group; developing a
CONOPS; establishing/strengthening a collaborative
approach for service provision to key government
stakeholders; training; accessing and full usage of NWP
data and products from other centers; enhanced useof remote sensing products for hydrological services;
initiating basic long-range forecasting and hydrological forecasting; procuring basic computing andcommunication equipment as required; and revisingseasonal river forecast methods. The implementationof this scenario should be completed within at least
two years.

83

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSStrengthening service delivery through:1. Developing a national Strategy for Service Delivery(SSD) based on the WMO Strategy for Service
Delivery and its Implementation Plan;
2. Establishing a hydrometeorological user groupfor development and enhancement of different
services and to improve coordination among
service providers and improve liaison and response
to users;
3. Developing a CONOPS to guide design of activities
for different systems under this scenario;
4. Initiating/strengthening a QMS gradually across the
AMD and WRD-MEW institutional and operational
systems;
5. Initiating in collaboration with key government
stakeholders especially ANDMA and MAIL theprovision of information and services for DRM
and agriculture; and6. Enhancing the provision of PWS and hydrologicalservices through better dissemination channels
and improved communication techniques.
Improvement of short- and medium-range weather
forecasting through:1. Several rounds of training to build on current capabilities of forecasters to enhance the understanding
and as full a use of NWP data and products for
short- to medium-range forecasts from leading
global centers (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, UK) as possible;
2. Verification of forecasts;
3. Initial and follow-up training to introduce theconcept and basic application of impact-based
forecasting through interpreting forecasts andadding other information to demonstrate theimpact of weather and associated hazards;
4. Purchase of license for access to graphical datafrom a global center (e.g., ECMWF);
5. Initial training to introduce Ensemble Prediction
System (EPS) and the concept of probabilistic
forecasting and its benefits; and6. Developing proposals for optimization of themeteorological/climate networks, design, andconfiguration of automated meteorologicalmonitoring systems (e.g., choice of technologies

considering local conditions, costs of ownerships,
and O&M costs).
Improvement of long-range weather forecasting
through:
1. Several rounds of training to build up knowledge
and understanding of concepts related to longrange forecasting;
2. Access to and use of products from Global Producing Centers for long-range forecasts;
3. Tailoring long-range forecasts for specific applications and users; and4. Introduction to concepts of climate modeling anddownscaling.
Improvements in other areas of AMD activities:
1. Training on the operation and maintenance of the
new short-, medium-, and long-range forecast
systems including the use of any new software,models, and techniques taught during the training; and2. Procurement of required hard and software fordata management and the associated training.
Improvements of the hydrological services of MEW:
1. Improvement of hydrological data analyses byapplied statistics: for example, training on theapplication of the widely used R-packages (shareware) for time series analyses and statisticalregionalization to provide hydrological information
at ungauged sites (if needed in view of existingstatistical software), to be followed with moretraining on the applications of statistical tools
for trend analyses in data series and statistics of
extremes;
2. Basics of hydrological data management: Introduction to hydrological data management systems
and how data quality and long-term access toobservations can be assured. To be followed up
through setting up the data management system
MHC of WMO and its operational application. In
view of the current data management system
AQUARIUS, this point should be considered only
if a different system of data management may
be required;

84

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 45 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Upper air systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hazard
forecasting systems

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system

Limited area model
SystemVery short-range
forecasting system

Nowcasting model
systemShort-range
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Medium-range
forecasting system

Radar system
Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Long-range
forecasting system

Data comms
systems
Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems
Institutional management
systems
Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

Service delivery systems
Public weather
services system
G2G disastermanagement
service system

G2G agriculture
service system
G2G water andenergy management
services system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

G2G and G2B aviation
services system

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Met/hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

3. Strengthening the application of GIS, either byintroducing QGIS software (freeware), if no GIS
system exists, or by using an already existing
system such as ArcGIS;
4. Regionalization to provide hydrological information
at ungauged sites, training on the applications ofstatistical tools for trend analyses in data series,and statistics of extremes; and5. Flood forecasting and flood risk management:
improvement of hydrological flood forecasts(purchase of one server and two workstations isessential).

The expected capabilities of AMD through the activities carried out under Scenario 1 are reflected in the
resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 45
and Table 15.
The expected capabilities of MEW through the activities carried out under Scenario 3 are reflected in the
resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 46
and Table 16.

85

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSTABLE 15 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for AMD System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems
Global data

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems

GlobalNWP

Severe hazard
forecasting

30%

40%

45%

Service
Delivery
Systems
Publicweather
services

Quality
Management
Systems
Institutional
management

ICT Systems
Data communication
10%

70%

Capacity
Building

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback

Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Service systems
for national
and provincial
governments

40%

20%

45%
Disastermanagement
services

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

10%

10%

Stakeholder
institutions
20%

25%
Surface obs.

Regional
NWP

Very short-range Agriculture
forecasting
service

55%

50%

30%

Short-range
forecasting

Water andpower
management
service30%
Datamanagement
and archiving

End-user training
and outreach

10%

50%
10%

30%
External data

Communications

Medium-range
forecasting

50%
20%
Long-range
forecasting
20%

20%

86

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

FIGURE 46 • Scenario 3 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems
Monitoring and observing systems

Global data system

National data systems
Surface obs systems

Modeling systems

Objective and impact
forecasting and warning systems

Global NWP systems

Severe hydro hazard
forecasting systems

Public hydrologicalservices system

Regional NWP systems

Nowcasting system/
flash flood guidanceG2G disastermanagement
service system

Limited area model
systemVery short-range flood
forecasting system

Hydro modelingsystems

Short-range flood
forecasting system

Radar system
Medium-range flood
forecasting system

Data management
and archiving systems

External data systems

ITC systems

Technology infusion systems
Computing hardware
and software systems
Quality management systems

Operational management
systems

Communication
systems
Cloud computing
systems

G2G agriculture
service system
G2G water andpower management
services system

Actions, service monitoring, andfeedback systems
Service systems for
publicService systems fornational and provincial
governments

Service systems forbusinesses

Long-range flood
forecasting system

Data comms
systems

Institutional management
systems

Service delivery systems

G2G and G2B climate
services system

External research anddevelopment systems
Internal research anddevelopment systems
Transition research tooperations systems

Public-private
cooperative services
systems
to key businesses

Capacity building
Hydro institutional
education and training

Stakeholder institutions
training

End-user training andoutreach

Source: David Rogers (2018).
Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and noactivity exist in the system.

87

9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOSTABLE 16 • Scenario 3 Approximate Capabilities for MEW System of Systems (%)

Monitoring
andObserving
Systems
Global data

Modeling
Systems

Objective
and Impact
Forecastingand Warning
Systems
Severe hazard
forecasting

50%

Service
Delivery
Systems

Quality
Management
Systems

Publichydrologicalservices

Institutional
management

10%

ICT Systems
Data communication
50%

30%

Capacity
Building
Met/hydro
institutional
education andtraining

Actions,
Service
Monitoring,andFeedback
Service systems
for public
10%

20%
70%
Disastermanagement
services
20%

Operational
management

Computing hardware
and software

30%

40%

Stakeholder
institutions
30%

Service systems
for national
and provincial
government
10%

Surface obs.
70%

Very shortrange flood
forecasting

Agriculture
service10%
Water andpower
management
service60%
20%
External data
40%

End-user training
and outreach

40%
20%

Data
management
and archiving

Communications

20%

89



10. SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFITSOF IMPROVED
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

I

n order for AMD and WRD-MEW to improve thequality, diversity, and coverage of their services, theymust secure adequate and sustained funding. It is now
a common practice for hydromet service providers toundertake a cost–benefit analysis to secure and optimize
the use of investment resources. In all of the cases wheresuch analyses have taken place, it has been demonstrated
that the benefits of hydromet services are significantly
larger than the capital and operational costs needed
to modernize, produce, and deliver them. As public
services, AMD, and WRD-MEW are expected to deliversocioeconomic benefits to the welfare of Afghanistan
society. By comparing the costs and benefits of project
options over time, an understanding of the relative valueof the planned investments can be generated.
Hydrometeorological services do not generate economic
and social value unless users benefit from decisions
informed by the information provided, even if the services are of the highest quality. Decision making at alllevels needs robust and understandable information. The
more the information produced by AMD and WRD-MEW
is available and accessible, the more socioeconomic
value it can deliver. Further, the more skilled decision
makers are in utilizing those services and information,
the more value they can deliver. To optimize investment
benefits, the AMD and WRD-MEW modernization must
therefore focus on service delivery and ensuring thatusers can productively apply those services.

Recent assessments have applied different methodologies as described in the authoritative publication
Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessmentof Meteorological and Hydrological Services.52 This
includes further-refined, sector-specific and benchmarking approaches.

52 WMO, GFDRR/World Bank, and USAID (2015).

It should be noted that cost–benefit analysis for disasterand climate risk management in a developing country
context is generally challenged by lack of data andinformation. Further, complexities and uncertainties
are inherent in quantifying disaster risk management
and are further compounded by climate change.
Cost–benefit analysis is also challenged in handlingintangibles and discounting of future impacts, whichis particularly important for extreme events.53
An assessment of overall economic benefits as a resultof a modernization project had been carried out for
Afghanistan using well-known economic methodology. The results indicated that strengthening of thehydromet and EW services will yield a benefit–costratio ranging from 1.45 to 12.86. In view of the substantial recurring losses due to hazards such as floods,
droughts, landslides, and mudflows, it is clear thatany enhancement in the capacity and capability of
AMD and WRD-MEW to produce better forecasts andwarnings and disseminate them more effectively, will
be a sound policy and will lead to improvement in
the generation of services to mitigate the impact ofthese hazards. Such services are currently lacking andthus will lead to benefits both from the perspectiveof reduction of risk to life and property, as well as ingenerating economic benefits. Furthermore, projectedclimate change, demographic and development impacts
indicate increased negative impacts of weather andclimate in the future. Investments like this project
are needed to manage these risks. Development ofa more specific cost–benefit analysis may therefore
be deemed necessary in the future for the detailed
design and implementation of projects based on the
different scenarios offered in the Road Map.

53 IPCC (2012).

91



11. CONCLUSIONSAND A WAY FORWARD

T

he strategic steps needed to modernize hydrometeorological products and services in Afghanistan
are primarily driven by the needs of the user
community. Extensive discussions with AMD and
WRD-MEW management and technical staff and key
stakeholders dealing with the most pressing issues
in the country, such as food and water security, andemergency management and response, have revealed
that the provision of meteorological and hydrologicalinformation at present does not fully meet those needs.
At present, the activities of AMD and WRD-MEW aremainly focused on observation and data collection withlimited forecasting. The existing situation in Afghanistan
shows that due to lack of resources and conflicts sincethe 1990s, AMD has fallen behind even in this task, aswell as in the production of forecasts and delivery ofservices and making the technological and scientificprogress needed to use best practices and standards indelivering services. Addressing these issues will requirea joint approach involving all stakeholders and targeted
to ensure that all elements of the meteorological andhydrological data, and information and services chain
are addressed.
The AMD’s main products include basic weather
forecasts for the public and other users. No EWS exists
in the country for issuing warnings of severe weather
events. No agrometeorological forecasts nor flood
forecasts are produced, and assessment of the water
resources of the country are lacking. The AMD’s useof numerical weather prediction (NWP) is limited to
producing basic public forecasts. It has no technicalmeans to produce nowcasts needed for warnings.It
does not run any climate models and does not produce
seasonal outlooks and climate projection. In addition,
WRD-MEW does not run any hydrological or hydraulicmodels necessary for flood forecasting in the country.
Many requests by stakeholders clearly reflect the needfor modernization of the entire infrastructure of AMD
and MEW, to produce fit-for-purpose services. To
achieve this, AMD needs to reach the level of a modern

developing country’s NMHS. This implies enhancing its
meteorological observing system to adequate spatial
coverage and technical diversity; building a robust
data management system; a forecasting system withincreased accuracy, lead time, and timescales fromvery short-, to short- to long-range, and seasonal
forecasts; impact-based forecasts; an ICT systemcapable of archiving, storing, and transmitting data;
and an effective service delivery system. Similarly, thecapacity of WRD-MEW needs to be strengthened forsimilar production of hydrological services and flood
forecasting. The user requirements should in the caseof both organizations be the driving factor for themodernization of their system of systems.
As public services, AMD and MEW are expected todeliver socioeconomic benefits for the welfare of
Afghan society.
Three scenarios to modernize the AMD and WRD-MEW
have been presented: (i) an advanced modernization
option of investment to bring AMD and WRD-MEW up
to the level of well-functioning developing countries’
capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warning
services; (ii) the provision of technical assistance for aset of low-cost, high-priority activities options focusedon improvement of basic public services based onstrengthening AMD and WRD-MEW’s capacity andintroducing basic affordable new technologies; and(iii) a second scenario which falls in between the two,with investment to achieve a modest improvementin capabilities to provide hydrological, weather, andclimate services to meet the needs of the three mostimportant users. Naturally, the level of complexity
and required resources increases with each scenario.
Scenario 1: Advanced modernization includes investment needed to bring the AMD and WRD-MEW tothe level of well-functioning developing countries’
capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warning services to meet user needs (i.e., focused on
improving hydrometeorological and climate services).

92

STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

This scenario, which is a much more comprehensive
modernization option, will raise the level of capabilityof AMD and MEW at the successful conclusion of atleast a seven-year investment plan to that of a wellfunctioning developing country. This option will be
guided by three main modernization components:(i) enhancement of service delivery; (ii) institutional
strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modernization of observation infrastructure, data management
systems, and forecasting
Scenario 2: Intermediate modernization includes
investment needed to achieve a modest improvementin capabilities to provide hydrological, weather, andclimate services over a period of at least four years
to meet the needs of the most important users (i.e.,
focused on strengthening hydromet observation,
data analysis, and forecasting and on developing andproviding priority services).

Scenario 3: Low-cost, high-priority activities areneeded to achieve, over a period of at least two years,
critical minimal capabilities to provide weather, climate,and hydrological services (focused on improvementof basic public services based on strengthening AMD
and MEW capacity and introducing basic affordable
new technologies underpinned by priority capacity
building and institutional strengthening activities).
Most activities in this scenario are focused on training;access and use of NWP data and products; procurement of some basic computing and communicationequipment; revision of seasonal river forecast methods;
and establishing a user group.
Developing a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) is
essential for the detailed planning and implementationof each scenario.

93

Annex 1. Required Training AreasThe following list is indicative of areas for which training is generally required by NMHSs.
The exact areas of training for AMD and WRD-MEW will be defined based on theirrequirements following a thorough assessment of the current capabilities and gaps
in the knowledge of the relevant staff. Other areas may be added to this list as needed.
•

Project management;•

Management training;•Technical skills to support meteorological and hydrological observing networks;•

Instruments and sensors maintenance;•

Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical models on all timescales fromnowcasting to long-range forecasting;•

Enhanced skills in weather forecasting based on remote sensing;•Enhanced skills in flood forecasting using numerical models;•

Enhanced skills in deterministic seasonal forecasting using snow models;•

Understanding of the end-to-end early warning production and delivery;•

Impact-based forecasting and warning services including for hazards such as floods,
landslides, avalanches, droughts;•

Mesoscale meteorology;•

Verification and statistics methods for model evaluation;•

Data base management;•

IT management skills;•

Skills in the delivery of public weather and hydrological services, including user/
stakeholder consultation, communication, negotiation, and feedback gathering;•

Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods; and•Public education and outreach.

Strategy element 2
Link service development
and delivery to user needs

Strategy element 1
Evaluate user needs
and decisions

No concept of service exists,
products are simply issued.

Undeveloped

The users and theirrequirements for products orservices is not known.

Undeveloped

Development in Progress

Products and services
are documented, and theinformation is used to informmanagement of changes.

Services do not adapt tochanging user needs and newtechnology.
Products are documented
with limited descriptive
information.

Products and services are
consistently documented.
Service Level Agreements(SLAs) are defined.

Developed
User feedback is used to
inform management ofchanges and developments toservices.

Development in Progress
Services are developed andchanged as technology
allows, but engagement withusers is ad hoc.

The service defined in the
SLA is agreed upon withthe customer based on user
consultation.

Users are consulted tofacilitate development of
products and services.

Advanced

Requirements are defined in
documents agreed upon withthe customer and routinely
updated using feedback fromusers.

There are some formal
processes for integrating the
feedback received into thedevelopment of services.

Requirements are definedin documents agreed uponwith the customer but are notUser requirements are defined routinely updated.
with limited documentation.

Advanced
An ongoing dialogue ismaintained with users
regarding their needs and theservices they receive.

Developed
NMHS seeks input on an
ad hoc basis from users tofacilitate the development ofservices.

Users are able to contact the
NMHS and their feedback isrecorded.

Development InitiatedUser requirements for service
delivery are not well defined.

Users are known, but noprocess for user engagement
exists.

Development Initiatedhe Service Delivery Progress Model is adapted from WMO No. 1129—The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan. The
model can be used as a tool for assessing the level of development of NMHSs and creating an action plan to improve service delivery. Fulldetails can be found in http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/WMO-SSD-1129_en.pdf.

TAnnex 2. Service Delivery Progress Model

94

NMHSs are encouraged to share best practices in service delivery through formal training, twinning, mentoring, andother methods.

Strategy element 6
Share best practices
and knowledge

Some formal training isprovided.

Formal training is provided.
There is an ad hoc process
for staff to offer ideas for
improvements to service
delivery.

All members of staff are fully
aware.

Developed

No concept or communicationof service delivery principles
exist.

Most staff of the NMHS areaware of the importance ofservice delivery.

Development in Progress

Strategy element 5
Develop skills needed
to sustain service delivery

Strategy element 4
Sustain improved service
deliveryNo formal training in service
delivery is provided, thoughservice delivery principles are
informally communicated.

The action plan is being
implemented to improve
service delivery, the outcomesare being monitored.

Developed

Development InitiatedAn action plan has beencreated to improve thecurrent level of service
delivery and resources
have been identified to
implement it.

Development in Progress

Subsequent actions are taken
in an ad hoc manner.

Findings are used to identify
areas for improvement.

User requirements are usedas data for performancemeasures.

Developed

Undeveloped

Development InitiatedUndeveloped

Measures of verification andservice delivery are in place
but are not informed by user
requirements.

Development in Progress

No concept exists of service
delivery principles.

The verification of accuracy
and/or service delivery takes
place, but no systematic
process exists to use thisinformation to improve theservice.

No measures are in place
for assessing performance,
either in terms of accuracy orservice delivery.

Some measures ofdevelopment are in place.

Development Initiated

The concept of service
delivery has been introduced
and an assessment of current
status has been undertaken.

Strategy element 3
Evaluate and monitor service
performance and outcomes

Undeveloped

Innovative ideas are routinely
integrated into the continual
service improvement process.

There is a culture of providing
best possible service delivery.

Advanced

The action plan evolves in
response to the outcome of
the reviews.

The status of service delivery
is reviewed on a regular basis.

Advanced

Measures of performance arebased on user needs, which
are regularly reported andconsistently used to inform
decisions on improvements.

Advanced

ANNEX 2. SERVICE DELIVERY PROGRESS MODEL
95

Observations andTelecommunications

Observations extend tosmaller scales and include
ground-based remote sensing
techniques, such as radar. The
NMHS may be able to takeand integrate observations
from other parties.

Automation of observing
network with quality control
is routine. NHMS accesses
satellite data with, e.g.,
the capacity to deriveprecipitation estimates.
The observing network issustainable with sufficientbudget for operations andmaintenance. The verticalstructure of the atmospheremay be routinely measured.

NMHS has the capacity
to support a synoptic
meteorological network andhydrological network; shares
these data on the GTS; hassufficient staff to maintain its
observing networks.

NMHS has very few manualsynoptic stations andhydrological stations. It does
not share these data on the
Global Telecommunication
System (GTS).

It may access observations
by outsourcing its observing
requirements.

Developed

Development in Progress

Development InitiatedUndeveloped

Annex 3. Observation and Telecommunication
Progress Model
Advanced
NMHS conducts research,
introducing new observational
technologies and techniques
as needed. The observing
network is comprehensive
and sufficient to meet mainuser needs; incorporates
external observations fromother suppliers, for example,
agrometeorological network
operated by a Ministry ofAgriculture or hydrologicalnetwork operated by a
Ministry of Energy or Water
Resources.

96

Forecasting Systems

Advanced

NMHS has an extensive
research program andintroduces new forecasting
technologies and techniques;
has the capacity to support
requirements of other NMHSs,
is able to run global, regional,
and national NWP and EPS
systems. Forecasts of weather
and hydrological impacts on
specific sectors are routine
and generally developed withusers of these forecasts. The
NMHS has a well-developed
education and training unit.

Developed
LAM systems are available
locally or through regional
centers. Using local data
assimilation, high-resolution
short-time scale forecasts
are produced with emphasis
on 0–6 hours for extreme
events. The forecasting
system extends from 0 to
at least 7 days based on
a combination of global,
regional, and national
deterministic NWP and
EPS data and products.
The NMHS has the capacity
to manipulate digital data
and to tailor forecasts tospecific users and operates amulti-hazard warning system;
generates seasonal stream
flow outlooks and specializedhydrology products; has fullR&D capability. There are
well-established relationships
with partner agencies.

Development in Progress
The NMHs can provide 0 to
5 days forecasts using global
and regional deterministic
NWP and EPS data andproducts from GPCs; issues
nowcasts and very shortrange forecasts up to 12 hours
based on extrapolating
NWP and blending remotesensing observations.; isable to monitor major rivers
and generate short-termflow and flood forecasts; hasprotocols for emergencies,
back-up of data and products,
and offsite storage facilities;
carries out verification andpost-processing; has someR&D and a QMS. The NMHS
operates forecasting on a
24-hour, seven-days-a-weekbasis.

Development Initiated

NMHS can provide at least
three-days deterministic
forecasts based on accessto global and regional NWP
data and products available
on the GTS and/or graphicalproducts available fromWMO RSMCs; monitors
the current weather andhydrological system; hasbasic data processing andarchiving systems; carries
out subjective forecast
verification. There is noresearch and development,
and the quality management
system is rudimentary. The
NMHS may not operate
forecasting on a 24-hour,seven-days-a-week basis.
Warnings are limited.

Undeveloped

NMHS provides up to twodays deterministic forecast
based on graphical forecast
products retrieved fromdifferent web sources. Thereis no verification of forecasts.
The NMHS does not operate
forecasting on a 24-hour,seven-days-a-week basis; andwarnings are not issued.

Annex 4. Forecasting Progress Model
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Climate Services

Advanced

NMHS has research capacities
and runs global and regional
climate models (sub-seasonal
to decadal and longer);works with sector-based
research teams and develops
application models, software,and products suites forcustomized climate products.
Staff have multi-disciplinarymodeling and statisticalexpertise and can downscale/calibrate global scale
information to regional andnational levels. The NMHS isable to receive and respondto user requirements for new
products.

Developed
NMHS generates sub-seasonal
to seasonal forecast products,
develops specialized climate
products; downscales longterm climate projections aswell as interprets annual todecadal climate predictions;covers all the elements of
Climate Risk management,from risk identification, risk
assessment, planning andprevention, services forresponse and recovery fromhazards, information relevant
to climate variability andchange, and information andadvice related to adaptation;builds societal awareness toclimate change issues andprovides information relevant
to policy development anda national action plan. Staff
have knowledge in climate
modeling and methods fordownscaling/calibration, risk
and risk management andfinancial tools for risk transfer.

Development in Progress

NMHS has the capacity todevelop and/or provide
monthly and longer climate
predictions, including
seasonal climate outlooks,
both statistical and modelbased; able to conduct orparticipate in regional andnational climate outlook
forums; interacts with users
in various sectors; adds value
from national perspectives on
the products received from
RCCs and in some cases GPCs
for long-range forecasts;
conducts climate watch
programs and disseminates
early warnings. Staff are
proficient in developing
and interpreting climate
prediction products and inassisting users in the uptakeof these products.

Development Initiated

NMHS designs, operates, andmaintains national climate
observing systems; manages
data including QA/QC;
develops and maintains dataarchives; monitors climate;oversees climate standards;
performs climate diagnostics,
climate analysis, climate
assessment; disseminates
climate products; participatesin regional climate outlooks;
and interacts with users;
performs the functions ofnational climate centersproviding basic climate
services. Staff are proficientin climate statistics,
homogeneity testing
techniques, and quality
assurance techniques.

Undeveloped

NMHS may operate a limited
national climate observing
system; collects data in paper
form; retrieves climate datafrom different sources togenerate national climate
products; participates inregional climate outlooks;
and has very limited or
no interaction with users.
Typically, NMHSs in thiscategory do not have staff
dedicated to carry out climate
services.

Annex 5. Climate Services Progress Model

98

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Annex 6. Existing National
Strategies and Plans

T

he major national strategies relevant to hydromet are briefly described below.

The AMD Strategic Plan (2017) is a five-year plan to provide Afghanistan’s publicweather service needs by establishing a competent meteorological service alignedwith the WMO standards.
The MAIL Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Strategy (2015) is a five-year (2015–2019)
strategy developed by MAIL to achieve food security and nutrition at national and household levels through the establishment of an effective system of emergency preparedness
and DRM, which includes EWS (expanding and building on existing initiatives such as the
FEWS NET).
The MRRD Disaster Management Strategy (2014) is for a “Disaster-Resilient Rural Afghanistan
by 2020” through early recovery and mitigation. The strategy clearly identifies the lack ofa centralized data management system, coordination among agencies, and the absence ofan effective EWS as the main challenges affecting the establishment of an effective DRM
system in Afghanistan.
The Water Sector Strategic Policy Framework (2004) is an overall framework for establishing improved water resource management systems, livelihoods, agricultural production,hydropower generation, and environment management.
The Afghan National Development Strategy (ANDS) (2008) guides all development
activities in Afghanistan and provides a comprehensive strategy for security, governance,
economic growth, and poverty reduction. The disaster preparedness section of the strategy
stipulates (i) decrease risks from natural disasters and (ii) improve disaster preparedness
and response.
The Afghanistan Strategic National Plan (SNAP) for Disaster Risk Reduction (2011)provides a roadmap to “A Safer and More Resilient Afghanistan” by addressing the risks
of future disasters and climate change impacts. It encourages improved coordination andknowledge sharing among all stakeholders at all levels.

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STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP

The Water Resource Management Sector Strategy (2007) is to manage Afghanistan’s
water resources to reduce poverty, increase sustainable economic and social development,
improve the quality of life for all Afghans, and ensure an adequate supply of water for future
generations. Protection from the impacts of droughts and floods through developing expertise in weather forecasting, warning, and preparedness is one of the goals of the Strategy.
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) (2010) operates in accordance with the Law
on Disaster Response, Management and Preparedness and aims to streamline disastermanagement systems in Afghanistan. The main objective of the plan is to develop greater
clarity in roles and coordination among the various national agencies included in disaster
response. The plan has two major components: (i) the National Disaster Risk Reduction
Plan aimed at preventing disasters; and (ii) the National Response Recovery Plan aimed
at efficiently responding to natural disaster emergency situations.

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