THE ROAD TO RECOVERYREPORT
Volume 2 March 2021

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWith more than a year having passed since theadvent of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important toreflect on the impact of the virus on South Africa’s
tourism sector, and the significant progress thecountry, and the world has made in combatting thevirus as we face a delayed return to normal travel
and tourism.
This report examines developments around COVID19 variants and the vaccines, the outlook forresumption of international travel to South Africa
and the state of recovery of the South African
tourism sector on the ground.
Early predictions were that global tourism could
start to rebound by Q3 2021, but new variants ofthe virus, delayed global vaccination rollouts andunpredictable waves of new infections suggest thatthe recovery of international tourism will occur
more gradually.
All regions, including South Africa are still
experiencing reductions in international tourism of
more than 70% compared to pre-covid.

SOUTH AFRICA’S MEDICAL RESPONSE
Concerns over the 501Y.V2 variant (also known as
B.1.351), prevalent in South Africa, resulted intravel restrictions to and from our shores. Shortterm, negative impacts of this on our international
tourism recovery may have been felt. In the longer
term, the early detection of the variant may turnout to be a significant advantage.
Variant 501Y.V2 has specifically been targeted inlab and clinical trials as a benchmark of efficacy
against variants. This places South Africa ahead ingaining swift access to booster vaccines specific to
the 501Y.V2 variant, which are in many instances
already in production and testing.
As the list of variants inevitably grows, the global
focus will shift to how vaccines are adapting toensure protection against COVID-19 variants.

A DELAYED RETURN OF INTERNATIONALTRAVELWe provide an analysis of how likely resumption of
travel is from South African tourisms’ key source
markets.

AUSTRALASIA: Source markets have very low
COVID-19 levels. However, vaccine roll-outs havebeen slow and restrictions on re-entry after travel
to South Africa remain in place.
EUROPE: The UK has the strongest vaccination
drive, and is on track to reach herd immunity by
August, this will have a strong impact on demand
for resuming travel. The outlook for travel in therest of Europe remains low. Countries are currently
entering a 3rd wave of infections, and strong
barriers to re-entry after travel remain in place.
AMERICAS: Despite high weekly infection rates in
the United States, herd immunity should be reachedby September. Requirements only for screening
upon re-entry after travel from South Africa maketravel more feasible.
AFRICA: Barriers to travel from regional countries islow. Despite arrivals still being being reduced,
African arrivals are almost 10x higher thaninternational arrivals, highlighting the importanceof regional travel for rebuilding tourism.

DOMESTIC TOURISM SHOWS SIGNS OFRECOVERY
Domestic tourism has seen a recovery in overnight
trips of 50% compared to 2019.
A preference for travel by road as opposed to air isevident. Movement of light vehicles on South
African roads is only 10-20% lower than in 2019 as
opposed to the 60% reduction seen in air travel.
Domestic air travel, however, is almost double thatof regional and international air travel, indicating
tourism’s current reliance on domestic movement.
Reduced income in the accommodation sector islinked to reduced occupancies and slightly lower
average daily rates when compared to 2019.
Bucking this trend are the segments of Caravan &Camping and Guest Houses & Farms, who havemaintained their average daily rates, while stillseeing a recovery in bookings.
To regain tourism low weekly infection rates and an
effective vaccine roll-out are essential. South
Africa’s weekly case rates are well below the
globally accepted high risk threshold. The key focus
needs to be the efficient roll-out of the vaccine.
South African Tourism will again highlight the needfor tourism front-line workers to be prioritised inPhase 2 of the vaccination rollout scheduled to
begin in May.

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INTRODUCTION
On the 26th March 2020, South Africa took its firstdecisive actions against the COVID-19 pandemic thatwas sweeping across the globe implementing one of
the most comprehensive national lockdowns, as partof a science-led approach to containing the spreadof the virus.
One year on, the pandemic remains volatile andunpredictable in all regions, making it very difficult
to predict when tourism will resume.
Several European countries are entering a third
wave of infection and facing new bouts of lockdownwith Germany, parts of France and Italy imposing
renewed restrictions in the last week of March.
The announcement of several viable, effective
COVID-19 vaccines, the silver bullet that the world
waited for while holding its collective breath,suggested that the beginning of the end of thepandemic was in sight.

However, like much we have experienced with
COVID-19, the road to vaccination is not a straightand smooth one.
Eleven vaccines are currently in use in different
regions across the globe. How well these vaccines
will protect global citizens from the virus, and its
variants of concern, remains difficult to gauge due
to new hurdles emerging on a regular basis.
In this report, we dive into understanding:the vaccines and effectiveness against
variants
the current outlook for resumption ofinternational travel to South Africa,
the state of recovery of the South African
tourism sector on the ground.
We also provide a bonus section as a reference,
which provides context and an in depth
understanding of variants and vaccines as they
relate to South Africa.

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THE VACCINES
Vaccines are a critical tool in the fight to bring the COVID-19
pandemic under control. Currently there are 311 candidate
vaccines in development. Eighty-six vaccines are in trials and
11 vaccines are in use1.

311

86

11

vaccinecandidates

in clinicaltestingin useFIGURE 1: WHICH VACCINES ARE BEING USED AND WHERE?
Pfizer/BioNTech
2

-25°C

95%

Moderna
79

RNA

Johnson & Johnson
1

2-8°C

66%

2-8°C

79%

VV

2-8°C

95%

34

RNA

2

-18°C

92%

20

VV

20

IWV

1

IWV

2

2-8°C

2

2-8°C

73%

1

2-8°C

2

2-8°C

89

VV

66%

1

VV

14

IWV

Sinovac Biotech
2

IWV

1

PS

2

2-8°C

Vector Institute
81%

70%

Cansino Biologics

Sinopharm-Wuhan

Bharat Biotech
2

-20°C

Gamaleya2

Sinopharm-Beijing
22

Oxford-AstraZeneca

50%

Doses required
Pending

Storage temperature
Efficacy
Number of countries in use
XXX

Vaccine type

Source: Adapted from The New York Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker2

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COVID-19 VARIANTS OF CONCERN
As vaccination programmes have gathered
momentum, a major question has arisen of how
effective the vaccines are against the emerging
variants of concern.
In total, there are currently 15 identified variants
prevalent in several regions around the world on theWorld Health Organisation’s watchlist3. However, as
the virus continues to persist, spread and mutate,
and as countries begin or continue to monitor the
mutations even more variants of concern will
emerge.
Of the 15 variants, 5 are currently consideredvariants of concern. Immense research efforts areunderway to assess the efficacy of the vaccines onthese and other emerging variants.
Current results indicate that the existing vaccines:● maintain similar efficacy against the B.1.1.7
variant,● have lower efficacy against 501Y.V2 (B.1.351).
● have mixed effects on the P.1 variant with aneed for additional trials4,● require further research on B.1.526 and CAL.20C
currently underway.
However, as the list of variants inevitably grows, thefocus will need to shift away from who has variants
and switch to the core focus of how vaccines are
adapting to ensure cross-border protection against
the rising tide of COVID-19 variants.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM?
● Concerns over the emergence of the
501Y.V2 variant prevalent in South Africa
have rippled through international markets
and resulted in targeted travel restrictions toand from our shores.
● In the short term, negative impacts of thison our international tourism recovery may
have been felt. In the longer term, however,
the efficient and early detection of thevariant may in fact turn out to be asignificant advantage.
● In the efforts of vaccine developers toadapt both new and existing vaccines toensure efficacy against a broad suite of
emerging variants of concern, variant
501Y.V2 has specifically been targeted in lab
and clinical trials as a benchmark of efficacy
against variants.
● This places South Africa, and those wishing
to travel to South Africa, ahead in gaining an
updated vaccine specifically targeting
501Y.V2 since the boosters are already inproduction and testing.
● In regions where new or different variants
are only just being revealed, vaccine
adaptations may take many more months asadditional cycles of development, testing anddissemination would still need to be
initiated.

TABLE 1: VACCINE EFFICACY AGAINST KNOWN COVID-19 VARIANTS OF CONCERNORIGINAL
VIRUS

B.1.1.7(UK)

B.1.351(South Africa)

P.1(Brazil)

B.1.526(New York)CAL.20C(California)

PfizerBioNTech

95%

Similarefficacy

Mixed
results

SimilarefficacyMore dataneededMore dataneededOxfordAstraZeneca

60-90%

Similarefficacy

Reducedefficacy

SimilarefficacyMore dataneededMore dataneededModerna95%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededMore dataneededJohnson &Johnson66%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededSinovac50%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededSource: Adapted from BusinessInsider 4

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TRACKING THE PANDEMIC IN
PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETSIn addition to understanding vaccines and variants,
understanding the state of the COVID-19 pandemic
in South Africa’s prioritised source markets can help
predict which countries’ citizens will be able totravel safely and when.
In the coming months, key metrics to track will be
the combination of how much COVID-19 is still
spreading (measured by new cases per week) andprogress in vaccination rollouts.
Ideally, countries should be situated in the top left
corner of the below graph. This would mean a low
number of new cases per week and high levels ofvaccination, translating into progress in curbing the
COVID-19 pandemic in that country. This would
likely lead to a change in consumer mindset andtravel demand and behaviour.

● Currently, in key source markets - the United
Kingdom and the United States - are making thegreatest progress in curbing the COVID-19
pandemic. However, in both countries weekly
new case rates are >50 and considered high risk,
according to globally accepted standards.
● If South Africa wants to remain an attractive
tourism destination, we too will need to start
shifting in these metrics at a much faster pace.
With our weekly new case rates well below 50,
the key area needed is the efficient roll-out ofthe vaccine. Many players in the tourism industry
have highlighted the need for tourism’s frontline workers to be prioritised for vaccination.
This will aid the recovery of the sector, and help
tourism resume its vital role as a key contributor
to South Africa’s GDP.
● The revised roll-out plan announced by theSouth African government in late March5,
estimates that 35 million people will bevaccinated in a renewed drive from May 2021
to February 2022 taking the country to levelsof protection associated with herd immunity by
early 2022.

The higher the number, the more people are vaccinated.
Assumption that 75% needed for herd immunity.

FIGURE 2: RACE AGAINST TIME: WEEKLY NEW COVID-19 CASES VS
NUMBER OF PEOPLE VACCINATED IN SA TOURISM’S PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS

Data source:
OurWorldInData6

Total cumulative
cases per million
25 00050 00070 000The further a country is to the right, the higher the number of weekly infections.
Numbers > 50 are globally considered high risk.

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FIGURE 3: NEAR-TERM TRAVEL PROSPECTS FROM SA TOURISM’S PRIORITY SOURCE MARKETS

A holistic view of the information pertaining to thestate of the COVID-19 pandemic in SA tourism’s 24
priority markets will help identify who is likely toresume travel. In the detailed table (next page) we
provide information on:
1.COVID-19:- Total cumulative COVID-19 cases per million
people6.
- Weekly new COVID-19 cases per 100 000
people6 (rates >50 are considered high risk by
global standards).
2. Vaccination metrics- Percent of the population with at least one
vaccine dose7.
- Daily vaccination rate per 100 people7.
- Estimated number of years to reach 75% of the
population vaccinated (herd immunity)
extrapolated using current vaccination rate8.
As many countries are embarking on further
vaccinations. This estimation will change
significantly in coming weeks.
3. Re-entry regulations for each country after travel
to South Africa (as at 1 March)9.
Based on these metrics, outlook for international
travel in the medium-term remains low:
● AFRICA: Of all markets, travel from regional
African countries is most likely.

● AUSTRALASIA: While COVID-19 levels in key
Australasian source markets are very low, thesecountries have been slow in rolling-out vaccinations
and restrictions on re-entry after travel to South
Africa remain a large barrier to travel.
● EUROPE: The United Kingdom (UK) has the lowest
weekly new case rate, although still > 50, which isconsidered high risk. With the strong vaccination
drive in the UK, the country should reach herd
immunity by August 2021. This will have a strong
impact on demand for resuming pre-COVID-19
behaviour patterns, including travel.
The outlook for travel in the rest of Europe
remains low, with most countries currently
entering a 3rd wave of infections, renewed lockdowns, slow vaccine roll-outs and strong barriers to
re-entry after travel.
● AMERICAS: At low levels, the United States is themost likely to travel. Despite a high rate of weekly
new infections, the country is on track to reachherd immunity by September 2021 and only
requires screening upon entry after travel fromSouth Africa, making barriers to re-entry
significantly lower than many other regions.
Prospects for travel from Canada and Brazil
remains low.

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TABLE 2: TRAVEL OUTLOOK FROM PRIORITY MARKETS BASED ON COVID-19,
VACCINATION, AND BORDER REGULATION METRICS

Covid-19 and vaccination metrics correct as at 25 March 2021.
* Daily vaccinations calculated as 7 day rolling average.
** Herd immunity considered 75%. Calculations based on current 7 day vaccination rates.
*** B = Ban, I = Isolation, Q = Quarantine, S = Screening (as at 1 March).
**** VL = Very Low travel prospect, L = Low travel prospect

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TRACKINGTOURISM SECTOR RECOVERYON THE GROUNDThe Road to Recovery Report - Volume 2 March 2021

9

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM
The outlook for resumption ofinternational travel for tourism is still
minimal. The rollout of vaccinations will
increase consumer trust in travel but the
impacts of this on international travel
will likely only begin as more countries
reach acceptable vaccination thresholds.
At current vaccination rates, this may
only be expected towards 2022.
International arrivals into South Africa arecomparable to international arrivals into
other regions across the globe. All regions
are still experiencing reductions ininternational tourism of more than 70%
compared to the previous year.

FIGURE 4: CHANGE IN INTERNATIONALTOURIST ARRIVALS IN EACH WORLD REGION

Data source: UNWTO Recovery Tracker10

Overseas arrivals
International travel from overseas source markets
still remains low. Since opening the borders toInternational travel (Aug 2020), the top 3 source
markets were the United Kingdom, Germany andUnited States. Most countries, however, are still
90% lower than the previous year.

African arrivals
Similarly, travel from African countries remains low.
The top 3 sources of arrivals into South Africa were
Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho. Arrivals in top
African countries are still 62-94% lower than theprevious year. African arrivals are however, almost
10x higher than that of international arrivals,
highlighting the importance of regional travel forrebuilding the tourism sector.

FIGURE 5: ARRIVALS FROM TOP 10
OVERSEAS MARKETSFIGURE 6: ARRIVALS FROM TOP 10
AFRICAN MARKETS

Data source: Stats SA11 (Cumulative values from Aug-Dec 2020)

Data source: Stats SA11 (Cumulative values from Aug-Dec
2020)

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DOMESTIC TOURISM
Domestic tourism remains key to the resilience ofthe tourism sector showing a 10-60% reduction
between August and December, as opposed to the80-100% reduction in international tourism.
Domestic tourism resumed in late July 2020, andsince then we have seen total overnight trips
recover to levels approximately 50% lower than in
2019. Spikes of holiday travel occurred during
October and business travel spiked in September
and November. Overnight trips to visit friends andfamily (VFR) spiked shortly after domestic travel
was opened, mostly likely as a result of
accumulated demand during lockdown.

The effects of the second wave of COVID-19
infections and the associated regulations can beseen in the contraction in tourism which occurred
during December, with total trips tapering to 60%
lower than the year before.
Demand for day trips also still remains low, withmost months seeing up to a 50% reduction in day
trips taken. However, these trips contribute themost trips to the domestic tourism landscape.
There is therefore significant potential for
stimulating the tourism sector by resuming bothovernight and day trips.

FIGURE 7: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN DOMESTIC TRIPS RELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

Data source: SA Tourism

FIGURE 8: NUMBER OF POST-LOCKDOWN DOMESTIC TRIPS

Number of domestic trips (millions)( Cumulative Aug- Dec 2020)
The Road to Recovery Report - Volume 2 March 2021

Data source: SA Tourism

11

TRANSPORT
Domestic airline travel closely mimics domestic
travel patterns, showing a persistent reduction of
between 50- 80%. The recovery in domestic air
travel, is however almost double that of regional
and international air travel.This indicates thatthe current reliance of the sector is skewed
towards domestic movement.

Conversely, travel by light motor vehicle, recorded as
the number of vehicles moving through toll gatesacross the country, has steadily increased since April
last year. Since September, the number of lightvehicles on the roads has only been 10-20 % lower
than in 2019, indicating a preference for road travel
as opposed to air. A small dip in January 2021 can beseen, most likely due to the reintroduction of level 3
regulations but by February, this had evened out.

FIGURE 9: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN AIR TRAVELRELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

Lukas Souza/Unsplash

Data source: ACSA12FIGURE 10: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ROAD TRAVELRELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

Ashraf Hendriks/GroundUp (CC BY-ND 4.0)

Data source: SANRALThe Road to Recovery Report - Volume 2 March 2021

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ACCOMMODATION
Accommodation trends provide an indication of thelevel of engagement with tourism services. A
steady recovery was seen after lifting of level 3
regulations in August 2020. By December, however,income generated across the accommodation sector
was still 60% lower than when compared to 2019,highlighting the struggle that formal establishments
are facing. In addition to reduced income forestablishments that managed to keep doors open, acount of how many establishments have had to close
their doors has been difficult to ascertain.

Reduced total income is driven not only by reduced
occupancies but also for much of the sector throughaverage daily rates approximately 25% lower whencompared to 2019. Bucking this trend are thesegments of Caravan & Camping and Guest houses &Farms, who have managed to maintain their average
daily rates, while still seeing recovery in booking
occupancy.

FIGURE 11: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ACCOMMODATION INCOME, OCCUPANCY, AND
AVERAGE DAILY RATE RELATIVE TO SAME MONTH IN 2019

Data source: Stats SA13

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SPEND
Spend indicators can signal consumers’ economic
readiness to engage in pre-COVID-19 spending
behaviours. Interestingly, directly after level 4
regulations were lifted in April 2020, total retailspend recovered to only 15% lower than 2019 levels.
Since then, retail spend has increased steadily, andby September had all but recovered. This indicatesthat consumers’ retail behaviour may havenormalised.

However, spending in the food and hospitality
sector, is still severely impacted. Although
increasing steadily since lockdown, restaurants andcatering services have stabilised at levels 40-60%
lower than in 2019, casting light on the struggles ofthe service industry, which appears to have been hit
harder than many others. The only winner in this
sector is take-away & fast foods. This further signals
the preference for consumers to stay away frompublic areas.

FIGURE 12: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL AND FOOD SPEND RELATIVE TO SAMEMONTH IN 2019

Data source: Stats SA14

Data source: Stats SA15

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OUTLOOK
Before the pandemic, South Africa was one of theworld’s most popular tourism destinations, and thetourism sector represented a major source of trade
to South Africa. The sector is a $8.5 billion industry,
and the ability of the sector to “build back better”
post the pandemic is receiving South African
Tourism, government and the industry’s full
attention.
The global outlook for a return to 2019’s levels oftravel for tourism levels remains uncertain, with awide variety of factors influencing government
travel policies and consumer behaviour.
The recovery in international tourism recovery willstrongly depend on the pandemic’s trajectories,
travel restrictions, and vaccination developments.
There is thus major risk in expecting thatinternational travel will tangibly return during 2021.

Instead, we as a sector and a community willcontinue working to seize the gap to re-imagine andredefine the role that domestic and regional
tourism can play in the sector’s recovery. Continued
adherence to the strictest, world-class healthprotocols, and the promotion of South Africa’s
diverse and affordable destinations to domestic andregional travelers will remain priorities for theindustry.
In SA’s February budget the government announced
a free mass vaccination campaign, for which R9bn
has been allocated over the next two years. As thiscampaign rolls out, and similar campaigns in priority
source markets gain pace, South Africa will standready to welcome global travelers once again.

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BONUS SECTION:
READ ON FOR AN IN DEPTH ASSESSMENT ON THE COVID-19 VARIANTS &VACCINES RELATING TO THE OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM

THE RISE OF THE VARIANTS
Coronaviruses, like all viruses, can change overtime. Each time the virus multiplies in the body,there is a chance it may change slightly. This canlead to thousands of tiny changes in the genetic
coding of the COVID-19 virus. While most of thesechanges are harmless, a small few can causesignificant changes in how the virus behaves.
Changes that lead to the virus becoming more
infectious or causing more severe symptoms arecause for concern.
The United Kingdom, on the 14th December, were
the first to announce that a COVID-19 variant
thought to spread more readily had been
identified.
Just a few days later, on the 18th December 2020,
South Africa also announced that a more infectious
COVID-19 variant had been found.
The early identification of these variants, in part, islikely due to the high quality and well coordinatedresearch networks that had been set up to monitor
and track variants in each respective country16.
As early as March 2020, the UK, with an initialinvestment of approximately $27 million set up
COG-UK, a scientific consortium that coordinated anational program to track mutations of COVID-19
across the region. By January 2021, the consortium
had mapped up to 45% of all COVID-19 virus
sequences across the world.
The intensive effort to track the genetic evolutionof the virus is likely why the UK was the first to
identify a new variant, because it was also the firstto be looking.

Similarly, in South Africa, the new variant was
identified by the Network for Genomic Surveillancein South Africa (NGS-SA) that was created in May
2020 with grants from the South Africa Medical
Research Council and the South African Departmentof Science and Innovation.
The NGS-SA was extremely proficient and by
September 2020, South Africa was ranked 9th forthe total number of sequences submitted across theworld, punching well above its weight incomparison to the many wealthier nations further
down the rankings17.
In contrast to the UK and South Africa, many
countries have lagged in their efforts to develop arobust and coordinated program to identify genetic
COVID-19 variants leaving these countries inessence blind to potential new threats16.

”The South African genomicsurveillance network is a model
for low- or middle-income
countries with limited resources.
What we did was not large
numbers. It was a small number,but consistent and methodical” ~Tulio de Oliveira16

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Of particular concern was the United States (US),which despite having the highest cumulative
confirmed COVID-19 cases of any country in theworld, had by proportion one of the lowest shares ofsequences submitted to the GISAID database, aglobal repository used to track COVID-19 virus
mutations. By early January 2021, the US had only
contributed 0.3% of sequences to the GISAID
database (as opposed to the 45% of the UK) leaving
it ranked 43rd among contributing countries16,18

In recent weeks, the US has ramped up its
sequencing efforts leading to the identification andannouncement of seven growing lineages of COVID19 virus variants that appear to have originated in
the US with two main variants of concern found in
New York and California3.
In total, there are currently 15 identified variants ofconcern or potential concern in several different
regions around the world3. However, as the virus
continues to persist, spread and mutate, and as
countries begin or continue to monitor the
mutations, it is inevitable that even more variantsof concern will emerge.

This raised alarm bells across networks of medical
researchers since the greater the number of times
the virus spreads between people, the more
opportunities it has to mutate. With the largest caseload in the world largely going unmonitored, fears
were that a hotbed of variants had been growing
largely unnoticed.

As the list grows, the focus will need to shift awayfrom who has variants and switch to the core focus
of how vaccines are adapting to ensure cross-borderprotection against the rising tide of COVID-19
variants.

TABLE 1: KNOWN GENETIC COVID-19 VARIANTS OF CONCERN
Variant

First identified inMore contagious?

Ability toevade vaccine

CDC/WHOclassification

B.1.1.7

United Kingdom

Yes

MinimalConcern

South Africa

Yes

Moderate

Concern

BrazilYes

Moderate

Concern

B.1.526

New YorkUnknown

PotentiallyInterest

B.1.525

New YorkUnknown

PotentiallyInterest

Brazil

Unknown

PotentiallyInterest

B.1.427

California

Yes

Moderate

ConcernB.1.429

California

Yes

Moderate

Concern

P.3

Philippines

Yes

Unknown

Under investigation

A.23.1 with E484K

England

Unknown

Unknown

Under investigation

B.1.1.7 with E484K

England

Unknown

Unknown

Under investigation

B.1.525

England

Unknown

Unknown

Under investigation

B.1.1.318

Unknown

Unknown

Unknown

Under investigation

B1.324.1 with E383K

Unknown

Unknown

Unknown

Under investigation

B1.111 with E383K
and 429S

Columbia

Unknown

Unknown

Unknown

B.1.351 (501Y.V2)
P.1

P.2

Source: Adapted from Medscape 3

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THE VACCINES - THE FACTS
Vaccines are a critical tool in the fight to bring the
COVID-19 pandemic under control. Vaccines usuallyrequire years of research and testing before reaching
the public, but the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic
has seen a race to produce safe and effective
vaccines.
According to the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine vaccine tracker1, there are 311 candidate
vaccines of 9 different types in development to target
COVID-19. Of these, 11 vaccinations (of 4 different
types) are currently in use.

9311

vaccinetypes

vaccinecandidates

86

11

in clinicaltestingin useFIGURE 1: HOW CURRENT TYPES OF COVID-19 VACCINATIONS WORK

Source: Wellcome Trust6

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● Eleven main vaccines are currently in use across
146 countries across the globe.

● Johnson & Johnson, one of the only single shot
vaccines, is the primary vaccine being used in theSouth African market due to a better performanceagainst the widespread 501Y.V2 variant prevalent
in South Africa.

● PfizerBioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca are themost widely used so far, with recorded use in 79
and 89 different countries respectively.

FIGURE 2: WHICH VACCINES ARE BEING USED AND WHERE?
Pfizer/BioNTech
2

-25°C

95%

Moderna
79

RNA

Johnson & Johnson
1

2-8°C

66%

2-8°C

79%

VV

2-8°C

95%

34

RNA

2

-18°C

92%

20

VV

20

IWV

1

IWV

2

2-8°C

2

2-8°C

73%

1

2-8°C

2

2-8°C

89

VV

66%

1

VV

14

IWV

Sinovac Biotech
2

IWV

1

PS

2

2-8°C

Vector Institute
81%

70%

Cansino Biologics

Sinopharm-Wuhan

Bharat Biotech
2

-20°C

Gamaleya2

Sinopharm-Beijing
22

Oxford-AstraZeneca

50%

Doses required
Pending

Storage temperature
Efficacy
Number of countries in use
XXX

Vaccine type

Source: Adapted from The New York Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker2

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Two major questions will influence how quickly
tourism demand will resume:

HOW WILL VACCINES AND
VARIANTS AFFECT GLOBAL
TOURISM RECOVERY?
The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines began
shortly after the virus emerged in late 2019. The
speed of COVID-19 vaccine development was thequickest in human history. Just one year later, in
December 2020, public mass vaccination campaigns
began.
Many hoped this was the beginning of the end of thepandemic and placed high hopes that the efficientdelivery of a global vaccination programme could
see life and travel returning to some level ofnormalcy.
However, as vaccination programmes have gathered
momentum, progress has been hampered by the
emergence of treatment-evading variants,
bottlenecks in vaccine production and distribution,and concerns regarding the health and safety of thevaccines. In a sea of information that changes daily,
the only thing that has become clear is thatvaccinations will not be the immediate silver bullet
we had hoped for.
While early predictions had estimated that global
tourism could start to rebound as early as Q3 202120,
the developments of the virus, the delays invaccination rollouts across the world and theunpredictable waves of new infections suggest thatrecovery of international tourism will occur more
gradually over the next few years.

1. How effective are different vaccines against thevariants?
2. How will vaccines adapt to facilitate cross-border
travel?

VACCINE EFFICACY
The largest question as vaccines roll out around theworld is how effective the vaccines are against the
emerging variants.
The subject of feverish research and additional trials,
results suggest that against the existing vaccines:● maintain similar efficacy against the B.1.1.7
variant,● are less effective against B.1.351 (501Y.V2), and● have mixed effects on the P.1 variant with aneed for additional trials4.
In particular, results from a small study sample,
showed that Oxford-AstraZeneca offered minimal
protection (as low as 10%) against mild and moderatecases caused by the 501Y.V2 variant (also known as
B.1.351) prevalent in South Africa. This resulted in adecision by the South African government to suspend
the scheduled roll-out of the Oxford-AstraZeneca
vaccine.
Preliminary results for the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine
indicate that the vaccine offers similar protection
against 501Y.V2. However, some evidence exists fromlab studies that antibodies made in response to thevaccine are less effective. Results are currently notconclusive and additional research is needed.

TABLE 2: VACCINE EFFICACY AGAINST KNOWN COVID-19 VARIANTS OF CONCERNORIGINAL
VIRUS

B.1.1.7(UK)

B.1.351(South Africa)

P.1(Brazil)

B.1.526(New York)CAL.20C(California)

PfizerBioNTech

95%

Similarefficacy

Mixed
results

SimilarefficacyMore dataneededMore dataneededOxfordAstraZeneca

60-90%

Similarefficacy

Reducedefficacy

SimilarefficacyMore dataneededMore dataneededModerna95%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededMore dataneededJohnson &Johnson66%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededSinovac50%

Similarefficacy

Reduced(in lab)

Reduced(in lab)More dataneededMore dataneededSource: Adapted from BusinessInsider 4

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IS EFFICACY A VALIDCOMPARISON?
While nations are making decisions with the best
information available, experts have warned that
efficacy is innately difficult to compare and that it is
not as simple as comparing one number to another21.
This is mainly because clinical trials can only offer asnapshot of how effective a vaccine was against thevariants that were present or dominant in thatspecific place at that specific time.
Therefore, efficacy of a vaccine at one point in time
may not represent efficacy to the general population
several months later, leading early efficacy numbers
to misrepresent current world scenarios. This makes
it difficult to compare between treatments that weredeveloped and tested months apart.
In addition, different trials or treatments may differ
in definitions of, for example, what constitutes amild or a moderate case yielding different thresholds
for reporting.

Jeffrey Abrahams/GroundUp (CC BY-ND 4.0)

TABLE 3: DIFFERENCES IN CLINICAL TRIALS OF COVID-19 VACCINES

Source: Adapted from The Economist22

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VACCINE ADAPTATION
Vaccine developers are hard at work addressing
ways existing vaccines (First-Generation vaccines)
can be adjusted to ensure efficacy against bothcurrent and future variants23.
First-Generation vaccines● Moderna have developed an updated vaccinethat is specifically designed to match the
501Y.V2 variant. Testing the updated vaccine ina renewed Phase 1 trial began in March 2021.
● Oxford/AstraZeneca are working towards
updating their vaccine to be effective against
known variants by using genetic material
matching that of the new variants.
● Pfizer/BioNTech(RNA-based) are going the routeof testing whether a third dose of the original
vaccine is safe and improves efficacy against
emerging variants.
● Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine showed better
efficacy towards the 501Y.V2 variant. Trials arecontinuing to determine whether updates will
be needed.
For many vaccines, the scientific process to update
the vaccines is not complicated. However, updated
vaccines will still be delayed reaching the public
since the new vaccine boosters would need toenter the cycle of manufacturing, testing andapproval once again.
Second-generation vaccines:
While single variant vaccinations were quick out
the door for development, testing and use, several
other makers of vaccinations opted for a slow
process taking time to develop vaccines that would
be able to target variants of the virus that were
expected to inevitably emerge.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SOUTH AFRICA?
● Concerns over the emergence of theB1.351 variant prevalent in South Africa haverippled through international markets andresulted in targeted travel restrictions to andfrom our shores.
● In the short term, negative impacts of thison our international tourism recovery may
have been felt. In the longer term, however,
the efficient and early detection of thevariant may in fact turn out to be asignificant advantage.
● In the efforts of vaccine developers toadapt both new and existing vaccines toensure efficacy against a broad suite of
emerging variants of concern, variant
501Y.V2 has specifically been targeted in lab
and clinical trials as a benchmark of efficacy
against variants.
● This places South Africa, and those wishing
to travel to South Africa, ahead in gaining an
updated vaccine specifically targeting
501Y.V2 since the boosters are already inproduction and testing.
● In regions where new or different variants
are only just being revealed, vaccine
adaptations may take many more months asadditional cycles of development, testing anddissemination would still need to be
initiated.

One such vaccine is the ImmunityBio vaccine which
will be manufactured locally in South Africa24. The
mechanism of this vaccine builds on that of thefirst-generation vaccines but adds an additional
mechanism that triggers virus infected cells to be
killed, thus preventing the virus from replicating.
Phase 1 clinical trials of ImmunityBio in South
Africa are currently underway in collaboration with
University of Cape Town24.
Daniel Schludi/Unsplash

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REFERENCES
https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
3 https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/947650
4 https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-vaccines-efficacy-variants-south-africa-uk-brazil-2021-3
5 www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/most-south-africans-will-have-to-wait-until-november-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-20210325
6 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
7 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
8 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
9 https://live.southafrica.net/media/279788/tourism-outlook-snapshot-feb-2021-v2-1.pdf
10 https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-recovery-tracker
11 http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0351&SCH=72954
12 https://www.airports.co.za/airports/or-tambo-international-airport/statistics/passenger (+ Cape Town & Durban International airports)
13 http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6410&SCH=72704
14 http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6242.1&SCH=72699
15 http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P6420&SCH=72706
16 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4
17 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220325571
18 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/health/coronavirus-variant-tracking.html
19 https://wellcome.org/news/what-different-types-covid-19-vaccine-are-there
20 https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-down-70-as-travel-restrictions-impact-all-regions
21 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00409-0
12

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/06/new-data-show-that-leading-covid-19-vaccines-have-similarly-high-efficacy
www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/new-sars-cov-2-variants-how-can-vaccines-be-adapted#Adapting-vaccines-to-match-variants
24 https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/immunitybios-covid-19-vaccine-to-be-produced-in-sa/
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