HYDROMETEOROLOGICALAND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION
PLAN FOR NICARAGUAStrengthening INETER as the leading organisation in generating
and supplying knowledge and information supporting managementof the risks and effects of climate change.
JANUARY 2019
COLL ABOR ATION BET WEENTHE GOVERNMENT OF NIC AR AGUAAND THE WORLD BANKHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 20192

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Hydrometeorological phenomena such as hurricanes, flooding, drought
and landslides have significant influence on the population and economy of Nicaragua. Between 1994 and 2013, the average number ofdeaths due to hydrometeorological disasters was 160 per year, with average annual losses of 301.75 million dollars —purchasing power parity 1—,
which is equivalent to an average annual loss per unit of GDP of 1.71% 2.

In Nicaragua, extreme rainfall is the most common natural phenomenon, with the highest social
impact. The greatest source of damage and lossof life is linked to hurricanes that generate storms
that lead to flooding, erosion and landslides. In
2007, hurricane Felix caused damages and loss
equivalent to 14.4% of GDP; and in 2011, tropical depression 12E caused damages equivalent to6.8% of GDP. Landslides represented almost 75% of
all deaths related to natural disasters in Nicaragua
in the period 1990-2014 3. In comparison, floods andsudden swellings represented approximately 15%
and 3%, respectively.

In order to react on time, make informed decisions
and prevent impacts, monitoring and analysis ofmeteorological, hydrological and climate conditions are required. This includes drafting forecasts
for the coming hours and days, as well as weekly,monthly, seasonal and year-on-year weather prospects, and their interpretation and implementationin the management of water resources, agriculture
or energy production, for instance. The main usersof this information and services are the water industries (ANA 5, ENACAL6, Nuevo FISE 7 and MARENA 8),
the management of disaster risk (SINAPRED 9) andagriculture (MAG 10, INTA11 and UPANIC 12).

Also during the years of El Niño, the probability andintensity of droughts increased. For instance, in 2014,
Nicaragua underwent one of the worst droughts
ever recorded with approximately half a million
people affected and a resurgence of the cases ofmalnourishment in several areas of the Dry Corridor 4. 90% of agricultural production in the country
depends on rainfall and only 10% is cultivated using
irrigation, which shows that a significant part of theeconomy y depends on climate conditions.

Other users include the health, tourism and the sea
and land transport industries, the construction business, engineering companies, insurance companies
and the media. The National Territorial Studies Institute (INETER) is the main supplier of hydrometeorological and climate services required by different
economic sectors and the population at large.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) converts different currencies to a common
currency and, in the conversion process, balances their purchasing
power by eliminating price level differences between countries.
2
Germanwatch: Global Climate Risk Index 2014.
3
See http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/nic/data/
4
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Study
characterising the Central American Dry Corridor. Book I, December 2012.
5
National Water Authority.

6

1

In the current conditions, the supply of hydrometeorological and climate information for different

Aqueducts and Sewage System Company of Nicaragua.
New Social Investment Emergency Fund.
8
Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources.
9
National System for the Prevention, Mitigation and Attention
to Disasters.
10
Ministry of Agriculture and Farming.
11
National Institute for Agricultural and Farm Technology.
12
Agricultural and Farm Producers Union of Nicaragua.
7

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019socioeconomic sectors and the country’s ability toanalyse and forecast are insufficient. Bridging the
gap in the existing hydrometeorological and climate services is a priority. Otherwise, the safety ofthe population will be limited and industries thatare sensitive to hydrometeorological phenomena
such as agriculture won’t have the information necessary to respond to such events.

3

vide a short, middle and long term strategy. Witha large number of partners and projects related tohydrometeorology, this plan also serves to coordinate the activities carried out by different projects
with different financing sources and between theparticipating institutions.

In order to strengthen the generation of products and improve the services provided to users, aModernisation Plan has been devised that will pro-

Ultimately, this plan will serve to support the resilient
development of Nicaragua to climate variability andchange by means of strengthening and integrating
the quality and availability of climate, meteorological and hydrological information and services.

PREPARING THE
MODERNISATION
PLAN

The Plan results from an analysis of the limitations and gaps that exist between: a) services currently provided and the technical and institutional
capacities of INETER as main supplier; and b) theneeds of users.

The main limitations and challenges include:
1. INETER works under an inflexible legal frameworkthat hinders its mission, especially at internal level
between the different technical areas.
2. The physical premises of INETER are affected bya seismic fault, which places current and future
staff and monitoring and analysis equipment at
risk. Moreover, its current physical distribution
makes it impossible to operate as a National
Hydrometeorological Service.
3. The human and financial resources available at
INETER are insufficient to satisfy the demand
from users and to develop new services. The
technical ability of the professional and technical staff is very limited, both in amount and levelof qualification. In the area of meteorology at
INETER there are 68 people working in techni-

cal and professional positions, out of which only
one person has a high technical level in meteorology. None of the professional workers specialises in meteorology or has a Master’s or Doctorate degree. The situation is similar in the case ofhydrology: INETER has 13 civil and agricultural
engineers and 12 technical staff in areas related
to hydrology and hydrography. No professional
workers specialise in hydrology.
4. INETER has limited interaction at institutional
level with the industries to which its users belong
or with the end users. There are minimal cooperation agreements in place with other institutions.
5. Current infrastructure for meteorological andhydrological monitoring is limited, not only in the
Atlantic region but also in the western region of
the country. Measuring equipment has become
obsolete and a limited number of stations only

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019transmit real-time information. Limited budgets
for maintenance and investment have led to its
progressive wear of the infrastructure for observation. For instance, the 2016 operational andmaintenance budget stood at 11% of what international practice recommends.
6. Efficiency in operating, running and maintaining
the infrastructure for observation is limited. The
meteorological and hydrological equipment is
not calibrated periodically to count on reliable
quality information. There is no calibration andmaintenance programme in place (this includes
the meteorological radar and calibration for rainestimates).
7. There is limited capacity for meteorological forecasting using models adapted to the weather
conditions in Nicaragua and using modern tools
including remote sensors, both in regard to ashortfall in qualified human resources and inregard to processing equipment and observation networks with automatic stations and realtime data transfer. No data integration is carriedout with quality control for hydrometeorologicaland climate models and forecasts.
8. INETER has no real-time access to satellite
images required to monitor meteorological andenvironmental conditions and the issuing of relevant warnings and forecasts.
9. Access to information and the number of services provided by INETER to its users is currently
limited. INETER doesn’t currently have accessto an integrated hydrometeorological and climate database for internal use and to assist
users promptly. Furthermore, a large amount of
information is only available analogically and,
therefore, isn’t available for analysis. There is theadded risk of losing such information.
10. There is hardly any participation from users in
defining any meteorological, hydrological andclimate products and services. Efficacy regarding the communication of services is limited, as
well as the ability of users to interpret the information correctly.

4

11. INETER does not have a hydrological modelling
programme in place to improve early warning
systems against flooding and the managementof water resources, as demanded by several
groups of users in the country. The network ofhydrometrical stations for hydrological modelling is limited and there are areas where thisinformation is not available. Hydrology professionals are also scarce.
12. Early warning systems (EWS) for a more relevant
prevention of flooding and landslides do not yet
include rainfall forecasts in their prediction models. Communication of the information regarding EWS to the communities of users is limited.
13. There are no seasonal and year-on-year climate
forecasts available for the agricultural and farming, water, energy and environmental industries,
which are suitable to manage drought, especially in the Dry Corridor. There are no tools currently available to monitor drought, such as an
estimate of soil humidity using satellite data.
14. There is an increasing demand for climate
information from public and private institutional users and from the general population.
INETER doesn’t yet have in place a climate service programme to respond to such demand for
information with the participation of different
groups of users.
15. Aeronautical meteorology services for aviation
provided by INETER to the several airports inthe country are partially reimbursed by the airtransport authority. Return of costs is not carriedout according to the current agreement and on
the basis of the recommendations of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) andthe World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 20195

CONTENT OF THE
MODERNISATION
PLAN

The Modernisation Plan is a description of themodernisation goals for meteorological, hydrological and climate services (MHCS) and the results
expected, presented within a timeframe of specificactions and activities.

Furthermore, the Plan is a useful tool to manage

tors and the general population, establishing a true
national hydrometeorological and climate-related
system.

the expectations of the stakeholders and serves
also to communicate the plans and to coordinate
resources with all institutions involved. As such, theplan has a strategic nature and, therefore, does notinclude a detailed implementation plan with execution times, specifications or reference terms or
prior agreements with the users.

The experience in many countries that have undertaken such a process has shown that the modernisation of hydrometeorological services must tackle
three areas in a complementary manner:
A) Institutional strengthening.

Given its institutional competences, the Plan focuses
mostly on strengthening INETER. However, its scopeis wider. Although this institution plays a very activerole, its purpose extends to coordinating value
chains for meteorological, hydrological and climate
services that include other institutions that collectdata and user groups. Therefore, the strengtheningof meteorological, hydrological and climate services
is a cross-sectoral activity that should involve several institutions from the public and economic sec-B) Modernisation of the observationand forecasting infrastructure.
C) Improvement in the provision of services.
The plan puts forward 22 activities grouped into
three areas and is structured along a 6-year period,
with activities to be implemented in the short (1 to
3 years) and middle term (4 to 6 years). Below isa summarised description of the 22 activities proposed and the expected results.

The three complementary areas towards themodernisation of hydrometeorological services.

IMPROVEMENT IN
THE PROVISION
OF SERVICESINSTITUTIONAL
STRENGTHENING

MODERNISATION OF
THE OBSERVATION
AND FOREC ASTINGINFR ASTRUC TURE

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019A

INSTITUTIONAL
STRENGTHENING

1. IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANISATIONALSTRUC TURE AND OPER ATION OF INETER

Review the organisational structure of INETER in regard
to its operation and functions (meteorological, hydrological and other related departments). The aim is toturn it into a modern institution with a flexible operation that responds to the current and future challenges
faced by Nicaragua and in following with WMO recommendations. Additionally, the recommendation ismade to renew the physical premises of INETER in sucha way that allows it to undertake its role in a safe andefficient manner in fulfilling its mission.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: An institution with an efficientand flexible structure with safe working spaces thatare functional and fully equipped for the operationand internal collaboration within INETER as well aslaboratories equipped for the calibration and maintenance of equipment for observation networks.

2. IMPROVEMENT IN COORDINATION / EXTERNALCOOPER ATION AT INETER

The proposal is made to review the functions and scopeof the external cooperation office at INETER, as well as
its participation in the coordination of the Modernisation Plan led by INETER with the institutions involved,
as well as coordinating other international cooperation activities related to the Modernisation Plan.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Well-defined functions andscope of the external cooperation office at INETER,
with staff trained towards establishing links andcoordination with international cooperation as wellas cooperation with National Meteorological andHydrology Systems (NMHS) in the region and WMO
programmes as well as other international institutions through the Chancellor’s Office.

3. IMPROVEMENT OF THE OFFICE OF AT TENTION
TO USERS

Special attention must be paid to this area. The recommendation is to update its functions and to extend its
scope and access to the information requested by the6users, as well as monitoring and assessing the services
offered by means of user satisfaction evaluations. Similarly, a recommendation is made to relocate this officewithin the INETER structure, placing it at the level of theExternal Cooperation Office in order to make it more
visible. It is suggested that it should follow the WMO
guide in regard to supplying NMHS services to users.
RESULTS EXPECTED: Improved communication withusers in their demands for information and products, and the development and implementation ofquick mechanisms to provide access to the information and products requested (see section related touser services in activity 16, regarding the establishment of user committees.)

4. STAFF TR AINING AND QUALIFICATIONPROGR AMME

Training and qualification of professional and technicalstaff is an area that should be strengthened at INETER
and other related institutions. In order to develop thesyllabus, the recommendation is made to quantify
precisely the number of professional and technicalstaff and areas and specialisations for which training isrequired and to define the modalities of training (universities/training centres, online/in-person training,training at work, periods staying at NMHS/researchfacilities). In regard to the training of professional staff
in the areas of meteorology and hydrology with thesupport of local universities, the recommendation ismade to establish an initial agreement which should
be expressed before the National University Council (CNU) in order to formalise it. Similarly, the recommendation is made for the training of specialists to be
based on the guide provided by the WMO.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: In the middle term (6 years),
20 meteorologists (10 professional and 10 technicalstaff) will have been trained; also, 20 hydrologists(10 professional and 10 technical staff), 5 specialists
in climate forecasting and climate products; 5 specialists in remote sensors, including the exploitationof radar products, to strengthen the operation of
INETER and other participating institutions. In the
short term (1-3) years, the personnel skills will bestrengthened by means of short-duration courses
in priority areas (numerical forecasting, radar
products, climate forecasting and others) with thesupport of the "National Centre for AtmosphericResearch (NCAR)" and local universities.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019

B

MODERNISATION OF
THE OBSERVATION
AND FORECASTINGINFRASTRUCTURE

5. OPTIMISATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICALAND CLIMATE NET WORKS

The recommendation is made to optimise the hydrometeorological observation network. This includes
coordination in terms of space coverage, the instruments required, data formats and transmission
protocols, operation and maintenance for suitableobtaining, standardisation and use of the data
observed. The recommendation is to undertake thisstrategy within networks between INETER and otherorganisations working together towards improving
data consistency and quality. This also includes a
network of subterranean water and water quality.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: A strategic plan has beendevised towards the modernisation of the observation network, to establish and start running modern
equipment at different stages that affords the possibility for INETER to completely and suitably monitor meteorological and hydrological conditions,which is an indispensable element towards activating early warning systems on time and supporting
the productive sectors.

6. ACCESS TO REAL-TIME SATELLITE INFORMATIONThe recommendation is made to constantly monitor atmospheric and environmental conditions inreal time by means of establishing equipment toreceive satellite images directly from a stationary
orbit and a polar orbit towards preparing forecasts
and for timely warnings. The suggestion is madeto increase the capacity of the telecom network todisseminate satellite images and products to users.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Substantially improved atmospheric and environmental monitoring and hydrometeorological forecasting through access to realtime satellite information that allows for warnings
issued in a more suitable manner.

7

7. IMPROVEMENT IN THE MANAGEMENT OFDATA COLLEC TION AND INTEGR ATION INTO
AN INFORMATION SYSTEM

The proposal is made to implement the MCH management system from WMO as a system for the
integrated collection, quality control and databasemanagement regarding meteorological, hydrological and climate data. The suggestion is made to
implement and run the MCH with the support of a
specialist, including the training of the administrators of the database management system (DBMS).
This activity also includes a review of the implementation of regulation UNE 500-540.
RESULTS E XPEC TED: Strengthening of the role
played by INETER as NMHS, offering truthful andfaster access to real-time or deferred quality information for the Meteorology and Hydrology Offices
at INETER for more precise and suitable forecasting.
Faster access to online data and products for institutions and user groups, establishing official protocols.

8. RECOVERING HISTORICAL CLIMATEAND HYDROMETRIC DATA

The proposal is made to recover historical climate
and hydrological data by means of a conceptual
design of the process, compiling, verifying and safeguarding the original files and data storage. The
first stage of this recovery will be preserving thefiles electronically and at a second stage, digitalising the information to integrate it with the database management system at INETER.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Development of a system torecover and digitalise information for an improved
preservation of the historical climate and hydrologicalinformation of Nicaragua and supplying information
with longer, more extensive series in order to study
variability, climate change and other applications.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019

9. CALIBR ATION AND MAINTENANCE
OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICALOBSERVATION EQUIPMENT

Establishing and executing a calibration and maintenance plan regarding automatic stations andmanual meteorological and hydrological instruments by means of a fully equipped calibration laboratory and operational procedures. Training of all
staff on procedures and equipment so they are able
to undertake calibration and maintenance.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Availability of uninterrupted

high-quality data by maintaining functional andcalibrated equipment, with trained staff, calibrated
instruments and the resources needed.

10. IMPLEMENTATION OF NUMERICAL MODELSTO IMPROVE METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

The recommendation is made to assess the feasibility of the "Weather Research Forecasting (WRF)"
model as the numerical model that will be implemented. Form a basic team at INETER comprising
2 or 3 meteorologists and 2 computing specialists.
Adapt any computational equipment to process
the WRF model or hire cloud services and increase
speed and bandwidth. Consulting with experts who
have experience with the WRF model and preparing forecasts.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: More reliable and suitable
forecasts are prepared by implementing numericalmodels that are calibrated to the weather conditions in Nicaragua using suitable computing andcommunications systems.

1 1. IMPLEMENTATION OF A FORECASTING
VISUALISATION SYSTEM

The recommendation is made to implement andtrain staff in the use of a visualisation system thatstandardises meteorological information from different sources and in different formats to prepare
diagnostics of the state of the weather and the corresponding forecasts. Technical support from the
NMHS in the region or other research institutions
with expertise in such systems by means of technical stays or the assistance from experts at INETER.

8RESULTS EXPEC TED: Significant improvement ofmeteorological and hydrological forecasting by
having trained staff who is up to date with thetechniques and procedures of visualisation systems
to prepare forecasts correctly.

12. DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATIONAND OPTIMISATION OF HYDROLOGICALFORECASTING MODELSIn order to implement this activity, the recommendation is made to assess the hydrological modellingsystems and hydrological forecasting systems available in Nicaragua and their sustainability. The suggestion is made to contact a contractor or organisation to implement and optimise the forecasting
system in collaboration with local hydrologists and
INETER, with a detailed training plan regarding themodel or models selected. The recommendation ismade to have two objectives regarding the hydrological models: improving EWS and supporting themanagement of water resources in Nicaragua.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Sustainable hydrological mod-els are implemented and optimised with regard
to weather conditions in Nicaragua, offering suitable and reliable information towards improving
EWS and supporting the management of water
resources in the country.

13. DEVELOPING A NATIONALR AINFALL ESTIMATE GRID

Holistic rainfall estimates using software that brings
together data from (calibrated) radar, satellite andautomatic stations for different time periods as
required (hourly, daily, weekly, monthly), with staff
training. This grid must be designed with the support of an expert and in collaboration with a teamof hydrologists and meteorologists as well as thecommunity of users.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: A national rainfall estimate
grid is prepared to provide rainfall information overspace and time as required by hydrological models and the needs of a variety of users in the water,
agricultural, environmental and other industries.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 2019

14. IMPROVING L ANDSLIDE PREDIC TION MODELS

Improve monitoring of rainfall conditions by using
automatic stations and satellite and radar estimates. Model landslide processes using a multi-parameter approach that considers the critical factors that influence landslides (rainfall amount andintensity, type of ground, slope, etc.) to define
warning thresholds.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Landslide prediction models
have been devised, implemented and optimised forspecific regions, offering the National Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Assistance System (SINAPRED) valuable information to activate EWS in asuitable manner whenever necessary.

9

C

IMPROVEMENT
IN THE PROVISION
OF SERVICES

16. ESTABLISHING COMMIT TEES OF USERS AND
A HIER ARCHY OF PRODUC TS AND SERVICES

Establishing committees of users (agriculture andfarming, water, disaster risk management, health,energy, transport, tourism, etc.) to:1) Define relevant climate and hydrologicalproducts and services.
2) Establish fast and effective meansof communication.

15. IMPROVEMENT IN CLIMATE FORECASTING

The proposal is made to improve monthly, seasonal
and year-on-year climate forecasts by using a
multi-model approach that offers good results. This
activity is accompanied by the professional training and qualification of INETER staff regarding climate forecasting and the collaboration of national
institutions as well as regional climate centres ofthe WMO and international institutions regarding
climate research.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Improved climate forecastingmodels that provide more precise and suitablemonthly and seasonal forecasts for drought management, water resources management and applications
in agriculture and the environmental sector, among
others, for decision-making in each sector concerned.

3) Exchange information and operations andmaintain a standard in the observation networks.
Conceptual design of a policy of priority products
and services with the specific actions and resources
required.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Committees of users havebeen established by INETER and different groups ofusers that make it possible to establish a systematic means for dialogue and coordination towards
defining hydrometeorological and climate products and services that are relevant to the different
industries. A document has been drafted with aconceptual design for a policy of priority products
and services.

17. RECOVERING COSTS AND IMPROVEMENT
OF SERVICES FOR AVIATION

Reviewing and updating cost recovery for the services provided to civil aviation in accordance withcurrent rules and regulations in Nicaragua and therecommendations of the ICAO and WMO. Reviewing
and updating the professional competence of aeronautical meteorology technical staff with the help ofexperts on this issue in the region.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Aeronautical meteorologicalservices provided by INETER to aviation will havebeen reviewed and updated in accordance withcurrent regulations and the rules of ICAO and WMO,
making it possible to fully recover the costs incurred.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 201918. STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSIn order to improve early warning systems (EWS),a joint proposal is made with SINAPRED to use astart-to-finish approach, incorporating the numerical weather prediction tool to EWS. Combined witha solid real-time observation system that extends
the execution period of forecasts, warnings may
reach vulnerable communities in a timely manner.
Similarly, communications and skills to interpretand implement hydrometeorological information
will be improved.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: More precise and suitablehydrometeorological forecasts are implemented
that afford SINAPRED more time and better information to activate EWS and protection measures
regarding the population and economic industries.

19. IMPROVEMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES
FOR PRIORIT Y SEC TORS

Improvement of monthly and seasonal rainfall andtemperature forecasts in a format, language andmethod of delivery that is suitable to each user.
Development and calibration of a soil humidity
monitoring model that uses satellite informationand hydrological models with timely field verifications. Monitoring droughts using indexes such as SPI,
SPEI, NDVI, monthly or annual total precipitation per
deciles and monitoring of soil humidity. Creation ofa technical advising group regarding drought and aworkshop on best practices in other countries.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Climate services have been

suitably developed and implemented that are relevant to users and contribute to increasing agriculture and food production and supporting the development of other economic industries in Nicaragua.

10

20. VARIABILIT Y AND CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIESTO SUPPORT WEATHER RESILIENCE PROGR AMMESPreparation and availability of high-quality climate
and hydrological information that extends overspace and time for studies regarding vulnerable
industries (water, agriculture, energy). A basic study
carried out to identify local and regional trends,
with an understanding of the factors involved per
season, year-on-year and per decade, as well as ananalysis of the changes expected per sectors, withthe participation of users.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Quality long-series climate
information has been provided that allows forundertaking variability and climate change studies guided towards vulnerable sectors such as thewater, agriculture and energy industries.

21. TR AINING OF USERS

The recommendation is made to periodically establish a training programme for end users in different
sectors. Courses should include case analysis andthe analysis and interpretation of hydrometeorological and climate products towards their implementation in decision-making. The recommendation is also made to educate and train the general
population in regard to monitoring, warnings, probabilistic forecasts and getting prepared and being
aware in regard to flooding and landslides.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: Activities have been implemented to train users and the general public that
improve the communication and visibility of INETER
with users from the productive industries and the
population at large.

22. DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUC TS WITH VALUEADDED FOR THE PRIVATE SEC TOR

Development of a conceptual project to supply
value-added products and services for the private
sectors with means for recovering costs or payment
in kind.
RESULTS EXPEC TED: A conceptual project has beendeveloped for INETER to provide value-added products for the private sector which focus on cost recovery.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES
MODERNISATION PLAN FOR NICARAGUA • JAN 201911

ESTIMATEDCOSTS OF THE
MODERNISATION PLAN

ECONOMIC
BENEFITS OF
THE PLAN

The estimated investment for the Modernisation

The Hydrometeorological and Climate Services
Modernisation Plan for Nicaragua includes an economic analysis that shows the profitability of investment in the middle and long term. The economic
analysis carried out includes some of the possible impacts that could be attributed to detailed
actions in the modernisation plan for which quantitative information has been obtained, establishingconservative estimates. Therefore, the economic
assessment carried out may be considered to be
the minimum profit limit.

Plan including investment in the new building for
INETER was prepared taking two scenarios into
account. The first scenario, which covers the basic
needs of a NMHS, has an estimated cost of approximately 21.4 million USD distributed across 6 years.
This budget would lead to INETER operating successfully in all technical areas. A second scenario,
which would lead INETER to operate optimally,
would have an estimated cost of 31.3 million USD.
Besides extending the hydrometeorological observation network, this scenario includes new equipment such as radars, radio-sounding stations, sea
buoys and other equipment. Annual operationaland maintenance costs (10% of the investment costfor equipment) for both scenarios at the end of themodernisation period would be 670,000 USD peryear for scenario 1 and 1.1 million USD for scenario 2.

The results of this economic assessment show thatthe contribution of this plan to the economic development of Nicaragua is expected to be high. The
cost-benefit ratio calculated based on the investment expected for the project oscillates between
2 and 4 and, hence the project is expected to be
profitable in all scenarios considered on the basis ofconservative hypotheses.

Summary of the CBA for the project underinvestment scenarios 1 and 2

SCENARIO 1

20

COSTS

INVESTMENT COSTS 24.67 MM USD.
CURRENT NET VALUE 67.68 MM USD.
COST-BENEFIT R ATIO 1 : 3.7

BENEFITSSCENARIO 2

CUMUL ATIVE CURRENT NE T VALUEINVESTMENT COSTS 36.13 MM USD.
CURRENT NET VALUE 100.16 MM USD.
COST-BENEFIT R ATIO 1 : 3.8

U. S . M I L L I O N D O L L A R S

U. S . M I L L I O N D O L L A R S

120
100

15

80

10

60
5
40
0

20

-5
-10

0
YEARS

1

2

3

YEARS

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

-20

THIS INITIATIVE BENEFITED FROM THE FINANCIALSUPPORT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN THROUGH
THE "GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION
AND RECOVERY (GFDRR)" OF THE WORLD BANK .

Formed by 189 member countries; with staff in more than 170 countries
and offices in more than 130 locations, the World Bank Group is a uniqueworldwide association: the five institutions that it comprises work towards
reducing poverty and generating shared prosperity in development countries.
www.worldbank.org