Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan
2023 to 2035
RTS report “Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan 2023 to 2035” is based on two forecast scenarios:BAU (Business as Usual) scenario and Accelerated scenario.
BAU scenario: Toward Fiscal Year (FY) 2030, PV introduction will expand with continued various support
measures by the national and local governments, PV introduction for self-consumption addressing rising
electricity bills, more consumers seeking green electricity with awareness of decarbonized management,and lowering of hurdles to introduction along with the spread of PPA. Then, from 2030 to 2035, it isassumed that the PV introduction will expand with the standardization and formation of a stable market.
Accelerated scenario: Further strengthening of energy security and acceleration of climate change
countermeasures will lead to new PV introduction and mandatory PV installations by policy. The users ofrenewable energy will increase across the supply chain, from large companies to SMEs, and theaccomplishments of R&D of next-generation PV technology cultivated early 2020s will broaden social
implementation of PV power generation to places where it is difficult to install PV systems today.
With the spread of power storage stations, EVs, V2H (Vehicle to Home) and V2G (Vehicle to Grid) following
the progress of cost reduction in power storage technology, aggregation and supply-demand adjustment
by VPP, and local production for local consumption of energy will become common, and the issues of PV
power generation such as variability will be solved.
It is estimated that the PV markets for multiple uses of land and space will be launched: building integrated
PV (BIPV) systems, PV systems integrated with infrastructure such as roads and railways, AgroPV systems,and floating PV (FPV) systems.
As a result, the annual PV installed capacity is forecasted to increase from 7 GWDC today to 15.2 GWDC in FY
2030. From FY 2030 onwards, grid constraints will be greatly eased by the improvement of grids anddevelopment of dispatching power sources, and the use of farmland will expand. It is estimated that the PV
installed capacity will reach 23.5 GWDC annually and 279 GWDC cumulatively by FY 2035.
This report presents an image of the future PV market in Japan, which will continue to grow with newdevelopments while breaking away from the FIT program.
We hope that this report supports you in planning your future business development and strategies.
Table of contents
1. Overview of the installed capacity forecast
2. Current status of PV power generation
3. Policy trends of the government, relevant ministries,agencies, and municipalities
4. Assumptions of the dissemination environment
5. Forecast of PV markets
6. PV system price forecasts
7. PV installed capacity in Japan (Total)

8. Forecast of installed capacity by category:BAU scenario (AC-based)
9. Forecast of installed capacity by category:
Accelerated scenario (AC-based)
10. Forecast of installed capacity by category:BAU scenario (DC-based)
11. Forecast of installed capacity by category:
Accelerated scenario (DC-based)
12. Forecasts of the installed capacity of storage
battery systems

Overview
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RTS Corporation⚫
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February 2024 (The original report in Japanese was published in October 2023.)

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(1) General price: 120,000 JPY/copy (tax excluded, domestic shipping costincluded)(2) Special offer for membership clients*: 90,000 JPY/copy*Membership clients: Subscribers of RTS monthly reports(3) Optional service: Presentation
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