Future ATM - from Asian
operator's point of view
Martin Eran-Tasker
Technical Director
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

EIWAC2013
Tokyo, Japan
19-21 February 2013

Overview• Global mobility• Asia Pacific Aviation• Current business conditions• Future growth• Global ATM• Asia Pacific ATM• Closing thoughts

Aviation: moving the world• Air travel delivers global mobility• 2,850 million passengers• Carries 35% by value of global trade• Wider social and economic benefits• Outstanding safety record
Source: ATAG

Asia Pacific• Diverse geographic region• Home to more than 4 billion people• 62% of the world’s population• Generates 27% of global GDP• Wide range of income levels• Dynamic economies delivering global growth• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor
to economic and social development• Political diversity remains challenging: need for
multilateral cooperation

Asia Pacific Aviation

Asia Pacific Aviation
US$159 billion revenue
655 million passengers
457 million domestic
198 million international
18 million tonnes of cargo
4,984 aircraft
Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:
25% of global passenger traffic
40% of global cargo traffic
Data: 2012 Estimates

Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+7 to GMT+12

Current Business Conditions

Global economy moderates
World GDP Growth
GDP Growth% change

1082010

2011

2012E

2013F

+5.3%

+3.9%

+3.5%

+4.1%

Emerging &Developing
economies

6World4
20-2

Advanced
economies-4
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013F

Source: IMF

Economic trends

Reflecting the tough business environment
Source: IATA

60

Jan-07Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08Mar-08May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09
May-09Jul-09Sep-09
Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10
Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12

US$ per barrel

Oil price volatility
200

180

160
Jet fuel price

140

120

100

80

Crude oil price (Brent)

40

200

Persistently high oil prices reflect
political risk factors

Global passenger and cargo traffic
Global international passenger and cargo traffic

Passenger traffic growth maintained,
but air cargo demand remains weak
Source: IATA

Future GrowthAspirational Demand for Air Travel

Rising incomes, urbanisation,social development

The growing middle class

Source: Airbus

Asia Pacific traffic will grow significantly

Source: Airbus
GMF2012-2031

Asia Pacific fleet expansion
2011 airplanes

Asia Pacific2012 - 2031 new airplanes

North America
EuropeLatin America
Middle EastCISAfrica
Source: Boeing

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000Global ATM

Keeping pace with growth• ATM complex• Requires collaboration and commitment• Highly capable under utilised aircraft• NextGen - progressing• Single European Sky (SES)• More than a decade since proposal adopted• All initiatives to achieve a harmonised and efficient European airspace•have so far failed
Technology benefits will remain limited until the political constraints
resolved• Seamless Asian Skies – harmonisation and interoperability
vital, challenge maintaining implementation plan
• Technology not the issue. need political will for reformCost of No Action• Increase in delays and congestion• Degradation of aviation safety• Lack of capacity for growth• Increase in operational costs due to inefficiencies andincreased fuel burn• Impact the global and national economic activity• Inefficient and constrained airspacePotential savings
Expected savings per year if ATM systems and aircraft onboard technology were optimised

Regional Savings
22% Global Traffic
1.3 million minutes
2 million tonnes offuel
6 million tonnes CO2

Source: ATAG/Airbus

Asia Pacific ATM

Challenges• Asia Pacific largest market - diverse regional ASNPs• Immediate ATM challenges are associated with growth andcapacity• Can the region handle the projected increase in air traffic?
• No overarching framework to operate within to drive change• Funding• Challenge to introduce new technology and procedures andensure interoperability and harmonisation• To address the challenge ICAO established the ASPAC
Seamless ATM Planning Group• Timely introduction of the ICAO system block upgrades andregional sub office in Beijing

Political Will and Policy Solutions• Growth dependant on safe and efficient air transport system ,not possible if system capacity cannot keep pace with traffic
demand• Provide a framework that enable ANSP accountability andautonomy to plan and invest• Recognition that ATM safety and operational efficiency go
beyond national airspace/ borders• Need for cross border collaboration• Enables “gate-to-gate” operations and optimisation• Sharing of industry best practice• Benchmarking• Improve civil-military coordination• Open closed military airspace• Will increase capacity and enable direct routing andoperational efficiencies

Cost of No Action• Degradation of aviation safety• Increase in delays and congestion• Lack of capacity to support growth• Increase in operational costs due to inefficiencies andincreased fuel burn
• Inefficient and constrained airspace• Impact global and national economic activity

Airline Near Term Wish List•

Address disconnects in ATM/Seamless airspace initiatives
between North Asia and rest of Asia Pacific (particularly visa vis South China Sea, China – Japan)•Accelerate adoption of PBN especially for enroute
implementation of RNP 4 (and RNP 2) and approach NPA(RNP APCH with Baro Vnav), APV , GLS•

Accelerate ADS-B OUT implementation and Surveillance
based separations tying in to current developments in theSouth China Sea/Australia•

Regional
thinkingandsolutions
requiredwithSeamless/Interoperable procedures that looks at thecomplete routing “or gate to gate”

Closing Thoughts• Aviation is part of everyday modern life and drives global
economic and social development• Air Transport faces a complex and challenging businessenvironment• Overall prospects for long term growth remain bright• “Do nothing” is not an ATM option• Harmonised approach difficult but political will and mandate
required• ATM requires regional thinking and regional solutions that are
GLOBALLY harmonized and interoperable• Huge potential savings in Fuel and CO2 reductions

Shared confidence and optimism
about the futurewww.aapairlines.org
Association of Asia Pacific AirlinesUnit 27-1, Level 27, Menara Prestige
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50450 Kuala Lumpur
MALAYSIA
Tel: +60 3 2162 1888
Fax: +60 3 2162 6888