 ᖺ⾗㆟㝔㑅ᣲண ࡟࠾ࡅࡿㄢ㢟㸫ሗ㐨࡜⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑࡟ࡼࡿ⪃ᐹ㸫

Issues for Predictions of the 2017 Lower House Election in Japan: Weighing Media Predictions against
Election Resultsᯇ⏣ ᫎ஧
(LML0DWVXGD㸯ࡣࡌࡵ࡟
㸰ㄪᰝࡢタィ࡜㐠⏝ࡢᙳ㡪㏿ሗ➇தㄪᰝタィ࡜ㄪᰝㄗᕪ 6XUYH\(UURU 㸱⤫ィฎ⌮㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧࡜᝟ໃุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧㆟ᖍ࠾ࡼࡧᙜⴠண᝿ࡢ⢭ᗘㄗᕪᖜ࡜ᙜ㑅☜⋡ࡢ㛵ಀ㸲㸬㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢᙜⴠண᝿ࡢ⢭ᗘ㸳㸬⤊ࢃࡾ࡟ࠑせ᪨ࠒㄞ኎㸪᪥⤒㸪ᮅ᪥㸪ẖ᪥ࡢ  ࡘࡢ኱ᡭ᪂⪺♫࡜ඹྠ㏻ಙࡢ࠺ࡕ࡝ࡢ♫ࡢ㑅ᣲண ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡢ࠿ࢆ㸪඲ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃグ஦ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ㄪ࡭ࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ሗ㐨ෆᐜࡣ㏿ሗ➇த࡟ࡼࡿㄪᰝタィࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⌮⏤࡜ࡋ࡚㸪
ձᐇ㉁ᅇ཰⋡ࡀ୍␒ప࠸ඹྠࡢண ⢭ᗘࡀᝏ࠿ࡗࡓ㸪ղᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃࢆ௚♫ࡼࡾ᪩ࡃሗ㐨ࡋࡓㄞ኎ࡣ᥋ᡓࡢ᝟ໃࡀከ࠿ࡗࡓ㸪ճ୰┙᝟ໃࢆሗ㐨ࡋࡓẖ᪥ࡢ❧᠇Ẹ୺⋓ᚓண᝿㆟ᖍࡀ୍␒㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝ࡟㏆࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ᮏ✏ࡣ㸪ண ሗ㐨ࡢᨵၿ࡟㈨ࡍࡿศᯒ⤖ᯝࢆ㛤♧ࡍࡿ࡜ྠ᫬࡟㸪௒ᚋࡢ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝࡢ࠶ࡾ᪉ࡶㄽࡌࡿ㸬In this study, we compare articles that predicted the results of the 2017 Lower House Election in Japan.
These articles covered each election district and were published by four newspaper companies and one
news service agency, namely, Yomiuri, Nihon Keizai (Nikkei), Asahi, Mainichi Shimbun Newspaper,and Kyodo Tsushin. Media forecasts based on earlier surveys made worse predictions. This paper finds
that: (1) the prediction by Kyodo that had gotten the lowest response rate was highly inaccurate, (2)Yomiuri had made predictions in each election district faster than other media had, and showed close
battle for many ditricts , and (3) the survey conducted by Mainichi in the middle stage of the race wasslower than other media and had made the most accurate predictions regarding number of seats wonby The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP). We present data that can be useful inimproving the quality and accuracy of election predictions. We also discuss the future of election
predictions using new survey methodologies.

29

政策と調査

第15号（2018年10月）

ᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝࠉ➨ྕ㸦ᖺ᭶㸧ࡋ࡚㑅ᣲ༊ࡢண᝿㆟ᖍࢆእࡋࡓ㸦⮬Ẹ  ㆟ᖍ࡟ᑐ㸯 ࡣࡌࡵ࡟ ➨  ᅇ⾗㆟㝔㆟ဨ⥲㑅ᣲࡣ㸪 ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥ࡋண᝿ 㹼㸹ᯇ⏣ ⬮ὀ  ཧ↷㸧㸬ࡇࢀ௨㝆㸪㸦ⅆ㸧࡟බ♧ࡉࢀ㸪 ᪥㸦᪥㸧࡟ᢞ㛤⚊ࡉࢀࡓ㸬㏿ሗ➇தࡀᛴຍ㏿ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 㸧㸬ㄞ኎᪂⪺㸦௨ୗ㸪ㄞ኎㸧㸪᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺㸦௨ୗ㸪᪥ ᖺࡣ᪥᭙᪥࡟ሗ㐨ࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪 ᖺࡣㄞ኎⤒㸧㸪ᮅ᪥᪂⪺㸦௨ୗ㸪ᮅ᪥㸧㸪ඹྠ㏻ಙ㸦௨ୗ㸪ඹ࡜ẖ᪥ࢆ㝖ࡃ௚♫ࡣ  ᪥᪩ࡵ࡚ᅵ᭙᪥࡟ሗ㐨ࡋࡓ㸬ྠ㸧ࡢᗎ┙ㄪᰝࡣබ♧᪥࠿ࡽጞࡲࡾ㸪ඹྠࡢ㓄ಙࢆࡇࢀࢆཷࡅ࡚  ᖺࡣྛ♫ࡀ  ᪥๓ಽࡋࡋ࡚ᅵ᭙
ཷࡅࡓẖ᪥᪂⪺㸦௨ୗ㸪ẖ᪥㸧ࡸᆅ᪉⣬ࡶྵࡵ࡚㸪᪥࡟୍ᩧሗ㐨ࡋ㸪 ᖺ࡛ࡣ  ᪥๓ಽࡋࡋࡓᮅ᪥ ᪥㸦ᮌ㸧࡟ࡣ㸪⮬Ẹࡀሀㄪ࡛࠶ࡾබ᫂ࢆྵࡵࡓ
ࡼࡾࡶㄞ኎ࡣࡉࡽ࡟  ᪥᪩ࡃሗ㐨ࡋࡓ㸬ᢞ⚊᪥࡟୚ඪࡢ⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍࡀ  ⛬ᗘ࠿࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ㉸࠼ࡿぢ㏻㏆࠸࡜ࡇࢁ࡛ㄪᰝࢆࡋ࡚ṇ☜࡞᝟ໃࢆሗ㐨ࡋࡓ࠸ࡋࡀሗ㐨ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 㸧㸬ࡇࡢண᝿ࡣᴫࡡᙜ
࡜࠸࠺⪃࠼࡜㸪ṇ☜ࡉࢆከᑡ≛≅࡟ࡋ࡚࡛ࡶ୍␒
ࡓࡗࡓࡀ㸪❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡀ㌍㐍ࡋ࡚➨  ඪ࡟࡞ࡿࡇ࡜
᪩ࡃሗ㐨ࡋ࡚ὀ┠ࡉࢀࡓ࠸࡜࠸࠺⪃࠼ࡀ஺ᕪࡍࡿ
ࡣ㸪ண᝿࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬୰࡛㸪⾗㝔㑅ࡼࡾࡶ㑅ᣲᮇ㛫ࡢ㛗࠸ཧ㝔㑅࡟࠾࠸ ண ࡢᡂຌ࡜ኻᩋࡢせᅉࡣ㸪ྛ♫ࡢྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࡢ࡚㸪㏿ሗࡢࡓࡵࡢ௙᥃ࡅࡀ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡉࢀࡓ㸬㐪࠸࡟࠶ࡿࡢ࠿㸪௒ᅇ≉᭷ࡢ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࡢᙳ㡪࡟ࡼࡿࡶࡢ࡞ࡢ࠿㸬ࡇࡢ␲ၥ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㸪ሗ㐨ෆᐜ࡜㑅ᣲᅗ⾲  ㄗᕪᖜูࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪ࡜ᙜ㑅☜⋡⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽࢹ࣮ࢱࢆᢳฟࡋ㸪ྛ㑅ᣲḍࡢᯠ┠ 1 ࡘࡣ 1 ᪥ࢆ⾲ࡋ㸪㻞㻜㻜㻟ᖺ⾗㝔㑅
ᕥ➃ࡀබ♧᪥࡛࠶ࡿ㸬⣬ᖜࡢ㒔ྜ࡟ձㄪᰝࡢタィ࡜㐠⏝ࡢᙳ㡪㻝㻜㻛㻞㻤㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻝㻝㻛㻥㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊ ࡼࡾ㑅ᣲᮇ㛫ࡼࡾ▷ࡃࡋ࡚࠶ࡾ㸪ྑ➃ࡣᢞ⚊᪥࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㸬˝ղ⤫ィⓗฎ⌮㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧࡬ࡢᙳ㡪
ಣജ
˝
ೖ‫ܨ‬
ճሗ㐨ࡢࡓࡵࡢุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧ࡢᙳ㡪˝㻞㻜㻜㻠ᖺཧ㝔㑅௉ೖ˖ຘೖࡢ  ࡘどⅬ࠿ࡽศᯒࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪㻢㻛㻞㻠㻔ᮌ㻕බ♧㻌㻣㻛㻝㻝 㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊
˖
˝
‫ڠ‬ಋ
ಣജ
ձබ♧᪥ᙜ᪥࡟ㄪᰝࢆ㛤ጞࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᴟ㝈ⓗ࡞˝ೖ‫ܨ‬㻞㻜㻜㻡ᖺ⾗㝔㑅˝௉ೖ㏿ሗ➇த࡟ࡼࡾ㸪㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࢆⓗ☜࡟ᢕᥱ࡛ࡁ 㻤㻛㻟㻜㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻥㻛㻝㻝㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊
˖
ຘೖ
˝
ಣജ
࡞࠸ᜍࢀࢆࡣࡽࡳ㸪ࡑࡢಖ㝤࡜ࡋ࡚ᙜⴠุ᩿
˝
‫ڠ‬ಋ
˝
ೖ‫ܨ‬
ࢆ⦆ࡵࡿ⤫ィⓗ᧯సࡸᙜ㑅࡜ⴠ㑅ࢆ᫂☜࡟ࡋ˖㻞㻜㻜㻣ᖺཧ㝔㑅௉ೖ˝ຘೖ㻣㻛㻝㻞㻔ᮌ㻕බ♧㻌㻣㻛㻞㻥 㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊࡞࠸⾲⌧࡟ࡼࡿሗ㐨ࡀ୍㒊࡛ࡳࡽࢀࡿ㸬
˝
˖
‫ڠ‬ಋ
ಣജ
˝
ղᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⋓ᚓண᝿㆟ᖍᩘࡢ᭱኱ㄗᕪ 㻞㻜㻜㻥ᖺ⾗㝔㑅ೖ‫ܨ‬˖ᖜ㸦ಙ㢗ᗘ 㸧ࡣ  ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪⣬㠃࡛බ⾲ࡉ 㻤㻛㻝㻤㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻤㻛㻟㻜㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊ ௉ೖ
˖
ຘೖ
˖
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‫ڠ‬ಋ
ࢀࡓண᝿ㄗᕪࡣࡇࡢ⠊ᅖෆ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ẚ౛˝ೖ‫ܨ‬˝㻞㻜㻝㻜ᖺཧ㝔㑅௉ೖ༊ࡢ㆟ᖍண᝿࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ୍㒊࡛⊃࠸ㄗᕪᖜࡀ
˖ຘೖ㻢㻛㻞㻠㻔ᮌ㻕බ♧㻌㻣㻛㻝㻝 㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊ࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬ᚑ᮶ࡢㄗᕪ⌮ㄽ࡟ᇶ࡙࠿࡞࠸᪉ᘧ
˝
˖
‫ڠ‬ಋ
ಣജ
˝
ೖ‫ܨ‬
ࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿሗ㐨ᶵ㛵ࡶ࠶ࡿ㸬㻞㻜㻝㻞ᖺ⾗㝔㑅˝௉ೖ㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊ճ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡢᙜⴠண ࡣ㸪⤫ィ㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧ࡔࡅ 㻝㻞㻛㻠㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻝㻞㻛㻝㻢
˖
ຘೖ
˖
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࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃᢸᙜグ⪅ࡢ⤒㦂࡟ࡼࡿ᝟ໃุ᩿ࡸ≉
ೖ‫ܨ‬
˝
௉ೖ
㻞㻜㻝㻟ᖺཧ㝔㑅ᐃᨻඪ㸦࡜ࡃ࡟බ᫂ඪ㸧ࡢ㐣ཤࡢᚓ⚊ᩘ࡟ᇶ࡙˖ຘೖ㻣㻛㻠㻔ᮌ㻕බ♧㻌㻣㻛㻞㻝㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊˝˖‫ڠ‬ಋࡃண᝿⚊ᩘࢆຍ࿡ࡋࡓุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧࡞࡝ࡶᚲ
ಣജ
˖
ೖ‫ܨ‬
せ࡞సᴗ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪୍㒊ࡢሗ㐨࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪 㻞㻜㻝㻠ᖺ⾗㝔㑅˖㻝㻞㻛㻞㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻝㻞㻛㻝㻠㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊ ௉ೖ˖ຘೖࡑࡢ࢔࣮ࢺࡀ⿬┠࡟ฟࡓ࡜᥎ᐹ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬
˖
ಣജ
˖
‫ڠ‬ಋ
˝
ೖ‫ܨ‬
ࡢぢ❧࡚ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ḟ❶௨㝆ࡣ㸪ࡑࡢㄽド࡛࠶˝௉ೖ㻞㻜㻝㻢ᖺཧ㝔㑅ࡿ㸬˖ຘೖ㻢㻛㻞㻞㻔Ỉ㻕බ♧㻌㻣㻛㻝㻜 㻔᪥㻕ᢞ⚊
˝
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ಣജ

˖
ೖ‫ܨ‬
㻞㻜㻝㻣ᖺ⾗㝔㑅
㸰 ㄪᰝࡢタィ࡜㐠⏝ࡢᙳ㡪˖௉ೖ㻝㻜㻛㻝㻜㻔ⅆ㻕බ♧㻌㻝㻜㻛㻞㻞㻔᪥㻕ᢞ
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 ㏿ሗ➇த
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  ᖺཧ㝔㑅࡛ㄞ኎࡜ẖ᪥ࡀ  ᪥㐜ࢀ࡚ሗ㐨ࡋ˝ ˝‫ࡣڸ‬㸪࠾ࡶ࡟ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘࡀሗ㐨ࡉࢀ㸪௉ೖྛ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢヲሗࡀ⩣᪥௨㝆࡟࡞ࡗࡓ˖ຘೖࡓ㸬ㄞ኎ࡣ㸪ᚑ᮶ࡢໃຊࢢࣛࣇ࡟௦࠼࡚ண᝿㆟ᖍࡢࡶࡢ㸬‫ࡣە‬ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ࡜㑅ᣲ༊ࡢヲ˝‫ڠ‬ಋሗ࡞࡝ࡀྠ᪥࡟࡞ࡉࢀࡓࡶࡢ㸬୰ᚰ࡜ㄗᕪᖜࢆ᫂♧ࡋࡓ㸦ࡇࡢᚋ㸪෌ࡧໃຊࢢࣛࣇ
࡟ᡠࡍ㸧㸬ẖ᪥ࡣ㸪ᚑ᮶ࡼࡾࡶㄗᕪᖜࢆᴟ➃࡟⊃ࡃ

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018)30

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ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ䛿㻝㻝
㻝㻜㻛㻝㻜㻔ⅆ㻕 ୓㻤㻥㻜㻝䚸᭷ຠᅇ䚷䡚㻝㻝㻔Ỉ㻕 ⟅ᩘ䛿㻥୓㻞㻢㻝䠄ᅇ⟅⋡㻣㻢㻑䠅

ʤ໨ʥඹྠ䞉ཧ↷ ඹྠ䞉ཧ↷ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ䛿ᮍ㻝㻜㻛㻝㻟㻔㔠㻕
ʤ݆ʥ
グ㍕䚸᭷ຠᅇ⟅䚷䡚㻝㻡㻔᪥㻕ᩘ䛿㻣୓㻟㻜㻤㻣

㻙㻝㻠䡚 㻞㻜 䡚㻞㻡㻝㻠䡚 㻞㻜 䡚㻞㻡 ʤ໨ʥ

㻙㻔㻞㻜㻚㻡㻕㻝㻤 䡚 㻞㻟

㻔㻞㻜㻚㻡㻕㻝㻤 䡚 㻞㻟

㻙㻝㻥䡚 㻞㻠 䡚㻞㻥࡛⾲⌧ࡋࡓ㸬ୖグ᪥⤒ḍࡢண᝿㆟ᖍࡢ୰ᚰࡣࠕඃໃࠖḍࡢᩘ್ࢆ⏝࠸࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ẖ᪥ࡣ୰ᚰ್ࢆᥖ♧ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡢ࡛㸪ୗ㝈࡜ୖ㝈ࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ぢ❧࡚ࡓ㸬ὀ㻝䠅ண᝿㆟ᖍ䛾ⓗ୰ᗘྜ䛔䛿䠈୰ᚰ್䜢ᙜ䛶䛯䜒䛾䛿⥙᥃䠈ㄗᕪᖜ䜢㉸䛘䛶እ䛧䛯䜒䛾䛿㽢䛷༊ศ䛡䛧䛯䠊ὀ 4㸧᪥⤒ࡣᚑ᮶ࡢໃຊࢢࣛࣇࡢ௦ࢃࡾ࡟㸪ࠕண᝿⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍࠖࡢ⾲ࢆᥖ㍕ࡋࡓ㸬ὀ㻞䠅ண᝿㆟ᖍⓗ୰䛾ホ౯䛿ྛ♫䛾ሗ㐨ᩘ್䛻䜘䜚Ⅽ䛥䜜䛯䠊᪥⤒䛾⮬Ẹ䞉❧᠇䛿ㄗᕪᖜ䛜ᗈ䛔䛯䜑ண᝿䛜እ䜜䛶䛔䛺䛔䠊ẖ᪥䛿ㄗᕪሙ䛜⊃䛔䛯䜑እ䜜䛜┠❧䛴䠊 ࠕ᭷ຊࠖࠕඃໃࠖࠕྍ⬟ᛶࠖ࡜ 3 ศ㢮ࡋ㸪ࠕ᭷ຊࠖࢆୗ㝈࡜ࡋ㸪ࠕඃໃࠖḍ࡟ࡣ
ࠕ᭷ຊࠖࡶྵࡵࡓᩘࢆ⾲♧ࡋ࡚୰ᚰ್ࡢ௦᭰࡟ࡋ㸪ࠕྍ⬟ᛶࠖࡣୖ㝈࡟࡞ࡿᙧὀ㻟䠅ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ䜢⾲䛷᫂♧䛫䛪䛻䜾䝷䝣䛷බ⾲䛧䛯ㄞ኎䛚䜘䜃ᮅ᪥䛾㏿ሗሗ㐨䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿ホ౯䛧䛶䛔䛺䛔䠊ẖ᪥䛾ᗎ┙ሗ㐨䛿ඹྠ㏻ಙ䛾ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ䛸ྠ䛨䠊㻢㻟䡚 㻢㻤 䡚㻣㻝䠄㑅ᣲ༊䠅 㻞㻝㻜䡚 㻞㻞㻝 䡚㻞㻟㻠 㻝㻟䡚 㻞㻝 䡚㻞㻥㻞㻣㻟䡚 㻞㻤㻥 䡚㻟㻜㻡 㻠㻣䡚 㻢㻜 䡚㻣㻞㻝㻞 䡚 㻞㻟㻞㻝㻠 䡚 㻞㻟㻞㻜㻝㻙㻜䡚 㻜 䡚㻜㻌㻣䡚 㻝㻝 䡚㻝㻢㻜䡚 㻜 䡚㻝㻜䡚 㻝 䡚㻟㻝䡚 㻝 䡚㻝㻢䡚 㻤 䡚㻥㻜䡚 㻟 䡚㻢

䠄ẚ౛༊䠅

㻜
㻜
㻜

ㅖὴ

ㄞ኎䞉ཧ↷
㻝㻜㻛㻝㻜㻔ⅆ㻕䠄ㄞ኎䞉᪥⤒䛿୍⣙ 㻞㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䚸ẚ౛௦⾲䠄ྠ㻝㻣㻢䠅䛷⣙⣙ 㻡㻡㆟ᖍ䛰䛳䛯䛃䠋බ᫂䛂බ♧๓䛾㻟㻟 㻠㆟ᖍ䛾☜ಖ䛻䜑䛹䛜䛴 ʤ໨ʥ
⮬Ẹ䛂䛄᭷ຊ䛅䜎䛯䛿䛄ඃໃ䛅䛸䛺䛳䛯䛾䛿䚸ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䠄ᐃᩘ㻞㻤㻥䠅䛷⣙䚷䡚㻝㻝㻔Ỉ㻕⥴䛻ㄪᰝ䛧䛯䠅
䛝䛭䛖䛰䛃䠋ᕼᮃ䛂ᮾி䈈඲㻞㻡㑅ᣲ༊䛾䛖䛱㻟㻟 ㆟ᖍ䛃䛂඲ᅜⓗ䛻䜒Ẹ㐍ฟ㌟⪅䜢୰ᚰ䛻㻟㻟 㻜㆟ᖍᙅ䛸䚸㑅ᣲ༊䛷䛾ⱞᡓ䜢䛖䛛䛜䜟䛫䜛⤖ᯝ䛰䛃䛂ẚ౛௦⾲䜢ྵ䜑䛯㻣㻣 㻜㆟ᖍ䛛䜙䛹䛣䜎䛷ୖ✚䜏䛷䛝䜛䛛䛾຾㈇䛃䠋❧᠇䛂ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䛷㻝㻝 㻜㆟ᖍ㉸䛘䚸ẚ౛௦⾲䛷㻟㻟 㻜㆟ᖍ㉸䛘䛃䛂➨㻟ඪ䜢䛖䛛䛜䛘䛖ໃ䛔䛃䠋ඹ⏘䛂㻞㻞 㻜㆟ᖍᙅ䛃䠋⥔᪂䛂ᆅ┙⣙ 㻝㻜㆟ᖍ䛃䛾኱㜰䜢୰ᚰ䛻⣙⮬Ẹ䛂බ♧๓ໃຊ䠄㻞㻤㻠㆟ᖍ䠅䜢ୖᅇ䜛䛛䛿ᚤጁ䛃䛂ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䛷䛿㻞㻞 㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䜢㉸䛘䛃䛂ẚ౛༊䜒䈈㻢㻢 㻤㆟ᖍ䛾☜ಖ䜢䛖䛛䛜䛔䛃䛂༢⊂㐣༙ᩘ䜢኱䛝䛟ୖᅇ䜚䛭䛖䛰䛃䠋බ㻝㻜㻛㻝㻜㻔ⅆ㻕 ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ䛿㻝㻡䠑 䠓㆟ᖍ䜢ୖᅇ䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛿䛒䜛䛜䛃䠋❧᠇䛂ໃ䛔䛷䛿ᕼᮃ䜢䛧䛾䛠䛃䛂ᕼᮃ䛻㏕䜛㆟ᖍ䜢☜ ʤ໨ʥ䚷䡚㻝㻟㻔㔠㻕 ୓㻟㻞㻟㻥௳䚸᭷ຠ᫂䛂බ♧๓ໃຊ䠄㻟㻟 㻠㆟ᖍ䠅䜢☜ಖ䛷䛝䜛䛛䛹䛖䛛䠋ᕼᮃ䛂බ♧๓ໃຊ䛾䠑ಖ䛩䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䜒䛒䜛䛃䠋ඹ⏘䛂බ♧๓ໃຊ䠄㻞㻞 㻝㆟ᖍ䠅䜢☜ಖ䛷䛝䜛䛛䛹䛖䛛䛃䠋⥔᪂䛂බ♧๓ໃຊ䠄㻝㻝 㻠㆟ᖍ䠅䜑䛦䛧䈈኱㜰௨እ䛾ᗈ䛜䜚䛜䜏䜙䜜䛺䛔䛃㻝㻜㻙㻝㻝䛷 ᅇ⟅ᩘ䛿㻤୓㻤㻝㻡㻞㻝㻠㻠䚸㻝㻞㻙㻝㻟 䠄ᅇ⟅⋡㻡㻤㻑䠅ᗎ┙㻞㻢㻣䡚 㻞㻤㻢 䡚㻟㻜㻟 㻠㻡䡚 㻡㻢 䡚㻢㻢 㻞㻠䡚 㻞㻥 䡚㻟㻡 㻝㻝䡚 㻝㻡 䡚㻞㻜 㻟㻠䡚 㻠㻝 䡚㻠㻥 㻌㻢䡚 㻝㻞 䡚㻝㻤㻝䡚 㻝 䡚㻞㻜䡚 㻜 䡚㻜㻜䡚 㻝 䡚㻝㻝㻥䡚 㻞㻠 䡚㻞㻥 ʤౖʥ䛷㻝㻠㻡㑅ᣲ 䛷䛿㻣୓㻡㻝㻥㻜䠈㻠୓㻞㻣㻠㻢䠄㻡㻣㻑䠅༊ᐇ᪋㻝㻥㻥䡚 㻞㻢㻜 䡚㻟㻜㻤 㻠㻢䡚 㻢㻥 䡚㻝㻝㻜 㻞㻤䡚 㻟㻠 䡚㻟㻢䠄ẚ౛༊䠅 㻡㻥䡚 㻢㻥 䡚㻣㻢㻞㻤䡚 㻟㻞 䡚㻟㻢 㻝㻤䡚 㻞㻝 䡚㻞㻢 㻝㻝䡚 㻝㻠 䡚㻝㻣 㻞㻣䡚 㻟㻜 䡚㻟㻟 㻌㻢䡚 㻥 䡚㻝㻞
ඹྠ㏻ಙ䛾䝕䞊䝍䛻䜘䜛ึሗ⮬Ẹ䛂ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䈈㻞㻞㻜⛬ᗘ䛷ඃໃ䛰䛃䛂ẚ౛௦⾲䈈㻢㻤㆟ᖍ䈈䛃䠋❧᠇䛂➨㻟ඪ䛸䛺䜚䛖䜛䛃⮬Ẹ㻌᭱኱㻟㻜㻜㉸䜒㻞㻤㻝 䡚 㻟㻜㻟㻠㻞 䡚 㻡㻠㻟㻜 䡚 㻟㻟㻝㻝 䡚 㻝㻤㻠㻡 䡚 㻠㻥㻝㻜 䡚 㻝㻟
❧᠇䛿ໃ䛔ቑ䛩㻔㻞㻥㻞㻕㻔㻠㻤㻕㻔㻟㻝㻚㻡㻕
㻔㻝㻠㻚㻡㻕
㻔㻠㻣㻕㻔㻝㻝㻚㻡㻕
ᕼᮃ䛥䜙䛻ኻ㏿⮬බ㻟㻜㻜㉸䛖䛛䛜䛖䠄ẖ᪥䠅ඹྠ ⮬බ㻟㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䛖䛛䛜䛖䠄⏘⤒䠅
㏻ಙ ᕼᮃ㻌ఙ䜃ᝎ䜏䠄ẖ᪥䞉⏘⤒䠅ẖ᪥ ❧᠇䛻ໃ䛔䠄ẖ᪥䠅⏘⤒ ❧᠇Ẹ୺㻌ಸቑ䜒䠄⏘⤒䠅ᮾி ⮬බሀㄪ䚸ᕼᮃఙ䜃ᝎ䜏䠄ᮾி䠅ᢞ⚊ඛᮍᐃ㻡๭㉸䠄ᮾி䠅

ẖ᪥

㻞㻥
㻤
㻞㻝

බ᫂

ᨻඪู⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍᩘ䠋ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ䠄ᩘ್ᮍබ⾲♫䛿᪂䛯䛺➨䠍䚸䠎ඪ䛾グ஦ᢤ⢋䠅⮬Ẹ䛂䛄⤯ᑐᏳᐃከᩘ䛅㻔㻞㻢㻝㻕䛻䜒ᒆ䛟ໃ䛔䜢ぢ䛫䛶䛔䜛䛃䛂ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䛷䛿㻝㻝 㻠㻜ே㉸䛜ඃ఩䛻❧䛱䛃䛂ẚ౛༊䛷䛿㻢㻢 㻜㆟ᖍ๓ᚋ䜢ᅛ䜑䛴䛴䛒䜛䛃䠋බ᫂䛂ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊䛻❧ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ䛿㻝㻟ሀ ㄪ䛰䛃䛂⮬බ୧ඪ䛷㻟㻟 㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䜢䛖䛛䛜䛖䛃䛃䠋ᕼᮃ䛂ඃ఩䛻❧䛳䛶䛔䜛䛾䛿㻣㻣 ே䛾䜏䛃䛂ᮾி䛷ఙ䜃ᝎ䜣䛷䛚䜚䛃䛂ẚ౛㑅㻝㻜㻛㻝㻜㻔ⅆ㻕 ୓㻞㻞㻥䚸᭷ຠᅇ⟅ೃ⿵䛧䛯㻥㻥 ே䛾኱㒊ศ䛜ඃໃ䛃䛂ẚ౛㑅䜒ሀʤ໨ʥ
䛷䜒㻟㻟 㻜㆟ᖍྎ䛻䛸䛹䜎䜚䛭䛖䛃䠋❧᠇䛂᧦❧䛧䛯㻢㻟㑅ᣲ༊୰䚸㻡㻡 㑅ᣲ༊䛷᭷ព䛻❧䛳䛶䛔䜛䛃䛂ẚ౛㑅䛷䜒඲䝤䝻䝑䜽䛷㆟ᖍ䜢⋓ᚓ䛩䜛ぢ㎸䜏䛃䛂බ♧๓䛾㻝㻝 㻡㆟ᖍ䜢䚷䡚㻝㻝㻔Ỉ㻕 ᩘ䛿㻣୓㻤㻞㻤㻡䠄ᅇ኱䛝䛟ୖᅇ䜚䚸ィィ 㻠㻜㆟ᖍ䜢㉸䛘䜛බ⟬䛜኱䛝䛔䛃䠋⥔᪂䛂බ♧๓䛾㻝㻝 㻠㆟ᖍ䜢⥔ᣢ䛷䛝䜛䛛䛹䛖䛛ᚤጁ䛰䛃䠋ඹ⏘䛂බ♧๓䛾㻞㻞 㻝㆟ᖍ䜢ୗᅇ䜛ぢ㏻䛧䛰䛃⟅⋡㻢㻜㻑䠅

ᕼᮃ⮬Ẹ⮬Ẹሀㄪ䚷ᕼᮃఙ䜃䛪❧᠇䛻ໃ䛔䠄㻝㻠㻠㑅ᣲ༊䛻䜘䜛ᴫἣሗ㐨䠅⮬බ䚸㻟㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䛖䛛䛜䛖ᮅ᪥ ᕼᮃ䚸ᮾி䛷㌺୪䜏ⱞᡓ䠄඲㻞㻤㻥㑅ᣲ༊䛻䜘䜛ሗ㐨䠅䠄㑅ᣲ༊䠅 㻞㻜㻤䡚 㻞㻝㻣 䡚㻞㻞㻣 㻝㻣䡚 㻞㻠 䡚㻟㻜୚ඪ䚸㻟㻜㻜㆟ᖍ䛻㏕䜛ໃ䛔᪥⤒ ⮬Ẹ䚸༢⊂Ᏻᐃከᩘ䜒ᕼᮃ䚸㑅ᣲ༊䛷ⱞᡓ⮬Ẹ㻌༢⊂㐣༙ᩘ䛾ໃ䛔ᕼᮃ㻌ఙ䜃ᝎ䜏ㄞ኎❧᠇Ẹ୺䛿㌍㐍බ⟬Ẹ㐍ฟ㌟↓ᡤᒓ㻝㻝ேඃ఩䛺ᡓ䛔㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝ䠄ẚ౛༊䠅㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝ䠄㑅ᣲ༊䠅㑅㻌ᣲ㻌⤖㻌ᯝ䠄ィ䠅♫ྡ ᗎ┙䠄୰┙䠅ሗ㐨䛾ぢฟ䛧 ᅗ⾲   ᖺ⾗㝔㑅࡟࠾ࡅࡿሗ㐨ྛ♫ࡢ᝟ໃ㸦㆟ᖍ㸧ண᝿࡜㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑
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31

政策と調査



ᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝࠉ➨ྕ㸦ᖺ᭶㸧

第15号（2018年10月）

 ୍᪉࡛㸪ẖ᪥ࡣ㏿ሗ➇த࠿ࡽࡣ㊥㞳ࢆྲྀࡾ㸪ᖺཧ㝔㑅࡛ࡣᗎ┙࡟ඹྠࡢ㓄ಙࢆ฼⏝ࡋ㸪⊂⮬ㄪᰝࡣᅵ᭙㸪᪥᭙ࢆㄪᰝ᪥࡟ྲྀࡾ㎸ࡴᙧ࡛୰┙࡟ሗ㐨ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢᚋ㸪ཧ㝔㑅ࡣ௚♫࡜ᶓ୪ࡧ࡛ᗎ┙࡟⊂⮬ㄪᰝࡋ㸪⾗㝔㑅࡛ࡣᗎ┙࡛ඹྠࡢ㓄ಙࢆ฼⏝ࡋ࡚୰┙࡟⊂⮬ㄪᰝࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ㄪᰝタィ࡜ㄪᰝㄗᕪ 6XUYH\(UURU  ෆ㛶ᨭᣢ⋡ㄪᰝ࡞࡝඲ᅜᑐ㇟ࡢ 5'' ㄪᰝ࡛ࡣ㸪ᦠᖏ㟁ヰ␒ྕࡶᑐ㇟࡟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪⾗㝔㑅࡛ࡣᑠ㑅ᣲ༊༢఩࡛ࡢㄪᰝ࡟࡞ࡿࡓࡵᅛᐃ㟁ヰࡢ␒ྕࡢࡳࢆᑐ㇟࡟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࠕᦠᖏ㟁ヰ␒ྕࢆㄪᰝᑐ㇟࡟
ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠖ࡜࠸࠺࢝ࣂࣞࢵࢪ࣭࢚࣮ࣛࡣྛ♫࡜ࡶ࡟࠶ࡿ㸬 ⣬㠃࡟ᥖ㍕ࡉࢀࡓ᭷ຠᅇ⟅ᩘࡢ࠺ࡕ๭ࡀᢞ⚊ணᐃࡢೃ⿵⪅ྡࢆ⟅࠼ࡓ࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜㸪ྛᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢᙜⴠண᝿࡛౑⏝࡛ࡁࡿಶ⚊ࡣ  ⚊ࢆ࠿࡞ࡾୗᅇࡿ㸬ࡇࡢྡᣲࡆ⚊ࡀᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࢆ཯
ᫎࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ࡢ⦰ᅗ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸧࡞ࡽࡤ㸪஧⪅ᑐỴࡢ᥋ᡓ≧ἣ࡛ࡢᶆᮏㄗᕪࡣ ⛬ᗘ࡟࡞ࡿ㸬ẖ᪥ࡣ௚♫ࡼࡾࡶ᭷ຠᅇ⟅ᩘࡀᑡ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ࡟㸪ࡇࡢࢧࣥࣉࣜࣥࢢ࣭࢚࣮ࣛ㸦ᶆᮏㄗᕪ㸧ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬 ௒ᅇㄪᰝ୍࡛␒ὀ┠ࡍ࡭ࡁ࡞ࡢࡣ㸪ࣀࣥࣞࢫ࣏
ࣥࢫ࣭࢚࣮࡛ࣛ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣపᅇ཰⋡࡯࡝ᅇ཰ᶆ
ᮏ࡟೫ࡾࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲  ࡢࠕ᭷ຠᅇ⟅⋡࡛ࠖࡣ㸪ඹྠࡀ ࡜ᴟ➃࡟㧗࠸㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪᪂⪺ࡢㄞ⪅ࡸㄪᰝ㛵ಀ⪅ࡣ㸪ࡇࡢࠕᅇ⟅⋡ࠖࡀㄪᰝ
ࡢရ㉁⾲♧࡛࠶ࡿࠕᅇ཰⋡ࠖ࡜ࡣࡲࡗࡓࡃ␗࡞ࡿู
ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆㄆ㆑ࡋ࡚࠾ࡃ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬5'' ㄪᰝ࡛ࡣ㸪ㄪᰝᮇ㛫୰࡟㟁ヰࡋࡓ␒ྕࡀୡᖏ⏝࠿࡝࠺࠿ࢆᑐヰ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚☜ㄆࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ఱᗘ࠿ࡅ࡚ࡶ
࿧ࡧฟࡋ㡢ࡔ࡜࠿㸪ᑐヰ࡞ࡋ࡛ษࡽࢀࡓ␒ྕ࡞࡝
ࡣୡᖏ⏝␒ྕ࡜ㄆᐃ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ࡟㸪ࠕᅇ⟅⋡ࠖィ
⟬ࡢศẕ࡟ࡣྵࡵ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬㟁ヰ␒ྕࢆከࡵ࡟⏝ពࡋ࡚࠾࠸࡚ᑐヰࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ␒ྕࡢࡳࢆศẕ࡟ࡋ࡚ࠕᅇ⟅⋡ࠖࢆィ⟬ࡍࢀࡤ㸪ᮏᙜࡢୡᖏᩘ㸦ᶆᮏࢧ࢖ࢬ㸧ࢆศẕ࡟ィ⟬ࡍࡿࠕᅇ཰⋡ࠖࡼࡾࡶ࠿࡞ࡾ㧗࠸ᩘ್࡟࡞ࡿ㸬ᶆᮏㄪᰝࡢရ㉁ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿᅇ཰⋡ࡢᐃ⩏ᘧ࡜ሗ㐨ᶵ㛵ࡀᐇ᪋ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ 5'' ㄪᰝࡢᅇ⟅⋡ࡢᐃ⩏ᘧࡣ㸪㻌 ᅇ཰⋡ ൌ㻌 ᅇ⟅⋡ ൌ

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ᶆᮏ䝃䜲䝈䠄ᐇ㝿䛾ୡᖏ⏝䛾㟁ヰ␒ྕᩘ䠅᭷ຠᅇ⟅ᩘ㻌ㄪᰝ୰䛻ୡᖏ൫ಶே൯⏝䛸ุ᫂䛧䛯㟁ヰ␒ྕᩘࡢࡼ࠺࡟኱ࡁࡃ␗࡞ࡿ㸬5'' ㄪᰝࡢᐇ㉁ᅇ཰⋡ࡣ㸪ᅛᐃ㟁ヰ࡛ࡣ ྎ࡜ぢ㎸ࡲࢀ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ᦠᖏ㟁ヰ࡛ࡣࡼࡃ࡚ ྎ࡛࠶ࡿ㸦ᯇ⏣㸧㸬ඹྠࡣ㸪බ♧⩣᪥ࡢ༗ᚋ࡟ㄪᰝࢆᡴࡕษࡗ࡚㸦ኪࡲ࡛⥆ࡅ࡞࠸㸧㸪ຍ┕♫࡛࠶ࡿᆅ᪉⣬ࡸࣈࣟࢵࢡ⣬ࡀ⣬㠃సᡂ࡟㛫࡟ྜ࠺ࡼ࠺࡟㸪ㄪᰝࢹ࣮ࢱࡸグ஦ࢆ㓄ಙࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ᆅ᪉⣬࡞࡝ࡀ඲ᅜ⣬࡜ྠ᪥࡟⣬㠃ሗ㐨࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜
ࢆඃඛࡋࡓㄪᰝタィࡀ㸪ඹྠࡢ㆟ᖍண᝿ࡢ⢭ᗘ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண᝿࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ࡑࡢ➃ⓗ࡞ドᣐࡀ㸪ࡇࡢ ࡜࠸࠺㧗ࡍࡂࡿᅇ⟅⋡ࡢᩘ್࡛࠶ࡿ㸬5'' ㄪᰝࡣࠕᅇ⟅⋡ࡢ㧗࠸ࡶࡢ࡯࡝ᅇ
཰⋡ࡀపࡃ㸪ㄪᰝ⤖ᯝࡢရ㉁ࡀᝏ࠸ࠖࡇ࡜ࡣ㸪ࡇࢀ௨㝆ࡢศᯒ࡛ࡶ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡿ㸬࡜ࡣ࠸࠼㸪ሗ㐨ྛ♫ࡀᅇ⟅⋡ࡲࡓࡣࡑࢀࡢィ⟬࡟㈨ࡍࡿ᝟ሗࢆ㛤♧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ㸪ㄪᰝࡢᮏᙜࡢရ㉁ࢆぢᴟࡵࡿ࡜࠸࠺ព
࿡࡛㸪ᮍ㛤♧࡛࠶ࡿࡼࡾࡶ᭷┈࡛࠶ࡿ㸬㸱 ⤫ィฎ⌮㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧࡜᝟ໃุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧 ㆟ᖍ࠾ࡼࡧᙜⴠண᝿ࡢ⢭ᗘᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃグ஦ࡣᙜ㑅ࡢྍ⬟ᛶࡢ㧗࠸ࡶࡢ࠿ࡽ㡰࡟ྡ๓ࢆ᭩ࡃ⩦ࢃࡋࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ྛ⣬ࡀሗ㐨ࡋࡓᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡈ࡜ࡢグ஦ࢆㄞࡳẚ࡭ࡿ࡜㸪඲  ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢᙜ㑅㸦 ఩㸧ண᝿ࡢⓗ୰⋡ࡣ㸪ձ᪥⤒ 㸦㸧ղㄞ኎   ճẖ᪥ 㸦㸧մᮅ᪥ 㸦㸧յඹྠ 㸦㸧ࡢ㡰ࡔࡗࡓ㸦ᑠ♒࣭໭⏣࣭ᯇ⏣ᅗ⾲ 㸧㸬 ୍᪉㸪ྛඪὴࡢண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ㸦ࡢ୰ᚰ㸧࡜ᐇ㝿ࡢ⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍࡢᕪࢆ  ஌ࡋ࡚ຍ⟬ࡋࡓண᝿㆟ᖍࡢṧᕪᖹ㸪᪉࿴㸦+ ್࡜ᐃ⩏㸧࡛⢭ᗘࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸦ᅗ⾲ 㸧๓❶࡛ᣦ᦬ࡋࡓྛ♫ࡢㄪᰝタィࡀㄪᰝ⢭ᗘ࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀㄞࡳྲྀࢀࡿ㸬ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘࢆ⾲ᙧᘧ࡛ሗ㐨ࡋࡓ♫㸦ᮅ᪥࣭ẖ᪥࣭ᅗ⾲ ሗ㐨ྛ♫ࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡢᶆᮏㄗᕪࡢ᥎ᐃ
♫ྡ

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ὀ㻝䠅᭷ຠᅇ⟅⋡䠙᭷ຠᅇ⟅ᩘ㾂ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ㽢㻝㻜㻜ὀ㻞䠅ẖ᪥᪂⪺䛿ୡᖏุ᫂ᩘ䛜ᮍබ⾲䛾䛯䜑᭷ຠᅇ⟅⋡ィ⟬୙⬟ὀ㻟䠅ೃ⿵⪅䛾ྡ๓䜢ᣲ䛢䜛๭ྜ䠄ྡᣲ⋡䠅䜢୍ᚊ㻢㻜㻑䛸௬ᐃ䛩䜛ὀ㻠䠅ᖹᆒྡᣲᩘ䛿඲㻞㻤㻥㑅ᣲ༊䛾ᖹᆒ䜢᝿ᐃὀ㻡䠅ㄗᕪᖜ㻩㻝㻚㻥㻢㽢㼟㼝㼞㼠㻔㻞㻼㻔㻝㻜㻜㻙㻼㻕㻛㼚㻕䛷ィ⟬䠄㻼㻩㻡㻜䠈㼚㻩ᖹᆒྡᣲᩘ䠅

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018)

32

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK1R 2FWREHU

ඹྠ㸧ࡢ୰࡛ࡣ㸪ẖ᪥ࡢ + ್ࡀ୍␒ ᅗ⾲  ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ࡜⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍᩘࡢṧᕪᖹ᪉࿴ᑠࡉࡃ㸪⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡼ࠺࡟ࡳ࠼ࡿ㸬ᨻඪู⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍᩘ䛸ண᝿㆟ᖍ䛾ṧᕪ䛾㻞஌ṧண♫ྡ⮬Ẹ ᕼᮃ බ᫂ ඹ⏘ ❧᠇ ⥔᪂ ♫Ẹ 䛣䛣䜝 ㅖὴ ↓ᡤᒓ ᕪ ᝿❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢ㆟ᖍࢆᮅ᪥ࡀẖ᪥ࡼࡾ⤖ᯝ䠄ィ䠅 㻞㻤㻝 㻡㻜㻞㻥 㻝㻞 㻡㻠 㻝㻝㻞㻜㻜㻞㻢 ᖹ ㆟ࡶ኱ࡁࡃእࡋ㸪ẖ᪥ࡀ⮬Ẹࡢ㆟ᖍࢆ 䠄㑅ᣲ༊䠅 㻞㻝㻡 㻝㻤
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ᐇ᪋ࡋࡓᮅ᪥ࡣㄞࡳྲྀࢀࡎ㸪୰┙ㄪ䠄㑅䠅ᰝࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓẖ᪥ࡀㄞࡳྲྀࢀࡓ࡜
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ࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
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ඹྠࡀ❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢ᝟ໃࢆࡲࡗࡓ
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࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ຍ┕♫࡬ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࠾ ඹྠ䠄ィ䠅䠄㑅䠅 㻟㻢
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ࡼࡧグ஦ࡢ㓄ಙࡢࡓࡵ࡟㸪ኪ࡟ࡋ࠿ᅾᏯࡋ࡞࠸⪅࡬ࡢ㏣㊧ࡀ⏑ࡃ࡞ࡿ
ࠕᐇ㉁  ᪥༙ㄪᰝ࡛ࠖᐇ᪋ࡋࡓࡇ࡜ ᅗ⾲  ሗ㐨ྛ♫ࡢ㆟ᖍ᥎ィㄗᕪᖜ㸦୰ᚰsㄗᕪᖜ㸧સର⮬Ẹ ᕼᮃ බ᫂ ඹ⏘ ❧᠇ ⥔᪂ ♫Ẹ 䛣䛣䜝 ㅖὴ ↓ᡤࡀ㸪᪂ࡋ࠸❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢ᝟ໃࢆㄞࡳㄗ
֭ಚ٠ੰ਼㻞㻤㻝 㻡㻜 㻞㻥 㻝㻞 㻡㻠 㻝㻝㻞㻜㻜㻞㻢ࡽࡏࡓࢃࡅ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ಣജᅗ⾲  ࡣሗ㐨ࡉࢀࡓண᝿㆟ᖍࡢ ೖ‫       ܨ‬ࠕ㸦ୖ㝈㸫ୗ㝈㸧¹ ࡛ࠖィ⟬ࡋࡓ
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ㄗᕪᖜࢆ඲య㸪㑅ᣲ༊㸪ẚ౛༊ู࡟  ‫ڠ‬ಋ       ᩚ⌮ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ẖ᪥ࡢㄗᕪᖜમ‫ۢڏ‬⮬Ẹ ᕼᮃ බ᫂ ඹ⏘ ❧᠇ ⥔᪂ ♫Ẹ 䛣䛣䜝 ㅖὴ ↓ᡤࡣẚ౛༊࡛࡜ࡃ࡟⊃ࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬 ֭ಚ٠ੰ਼ 㻞㻝㻡 㻝㻤 㻤㻝 㻝㻣 㻟㻝㻙㻜 㻞㻢ྛ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ೃ⿵⪅࡟ᙜ㑅☜⋡3 ࢆ ཱིޫึं਼ 㻞㻣㻣 㻝㻥㻤 㻥 㻞㻜㻢 㻢㻟 㻠㻣 㻝㻥 㻜 㻠㻠 㻣㻟୚࠼ࡓሙྜ㸪࠶ࡿᨻඪࡢ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢ ࠹୉‫ࠫޣ‬෱± 㻝㻢 㻝㻠 㻞㻚㻥 㻝㻠 㻣㻚㻤 㻢㻚㻣 㻠㻚㻟 㻜 㻢㻚㻡 㻤㻚㻠ಣജண᝿㆟ᖍࡣᡤᒓೃ⿵ࡢᙜ㑅☜⋡3 ࢆೖ‫ܨ‬⏝࠸࡚ḟᘧࡢࡼ࠺࡟௉ೖ        
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ㄗᕪ㻌 䠙㻌 㼼ͳǤͻ͸ඥߑܲሺͳ െ ܲሻ㻌   ᣲ༊䛾ᩘ ‫ڠ‬ಋ ർྭۢ⮬Ẹ ᕼᮃ බ᫂ ඹ⏘ ❧᠇ ⥔᪂ ♫Ẹ 䛣䛣䜝 ㅖὴ ↓ᡤ
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ண᝿㆟ᖍࡢ୰ᚰ್࡜ୗ㝈࣭ୖ㝈ࡀᴫಣജ⟬࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲  ࡢ㑅ᣲ༊ḍ࡟࠶ࡿೖ‫ܨ‬௉ೖ         ࠕ᭱኱ㄗᕪᖜsࠖࡣྛᨻඪࡢೃ⿵⪅ຘೖ         ඲ဨࡀ⃭ᡓ 3  ࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓሙྜ
‫ڠ‬ಋ         ࡢㄗᕪᖜ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬௒ᅇࡢሗ㐨࡛ࡣ㸪ὀ㸧⥙᥃㒊ศࡢィ⟬ࡣ㸪ㄗᕪ G=ͳǤͻ͸ඥ ߑ ܲሺͳ െ ܲሻ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㸪᥋ᡓ(P=0.5)ࡢ㑅ᣲ༊ᩘ s ࡜ࡇࡢㄗᕪᖜࢆ㉸࠼ࡿࡶࡢ㸦⤫ィฎ⌮ ࡋ࡚௚ࡣ P=1 ࡲࡓࡣ 0 ࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ࡜㸪s = (G/1.96/0.5)2 ࡜ᴫ⟬࡛ࡁࡿ㸬࡟ࡼࡽ࡞࠸᝟ໃุ᩿ࡢᙳ㡪㸧ࡣ↓࠿ࡗࡓ㸬୍᪉࡛㸪ẖ᪥ࡣ㸪❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢண᝿㆟ᖍࡢㄗᕪᖜࡀᴟ
㏫࡟බ⾲ࡉࢀࡓㄗᕪᖜ࠿ࡽ᥋ᡓࢆྵࡴᙜⴠࢆத
➃࡟ᑠࡉࡃ㸪ᕼᮃࡸ⥔᪂ࡶᑠࡉ࠸ᖜ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬࠺㑅ᣲ༊ࡢᴫᩘࡀㄞࡵࡿ 㑅ᣲ༊ḍୗ᪉⥙᥃㸧㸬ඹẖ᪥ࡣண᝿㆟ᖍࡢㄗᕪᖜࢆỴࡵࡿ࡜ࡁ࡟㸪㏻ᖖ
ྠࡢㄗᕪᖜࡢ௜ࡅ᪉ࡣ㸪ᮅ᪥ࡸẖ᪥࡟ẚ࡭࡚኱ࡁࡢ⤫ィ⌮ㄽ࡟ࡼࡽ࡞࠸᪂ࡋ࠸᪉ἲ㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧ࢆ࠸㸬⮬Ẹೃ⿵ࡣ  㑅ᣲ༊⛬ᗘ࡛ᙜⴠࢆதࡗ࡚࠸
⏝࠸࡚࠸ࡿ࠿㸪ᢸᙜグ⪅࡟ࡼࡿ᝟ໃุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧ࡿ᝟ໃ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ẖ᪥ࡢ  ಸᙅࡢከࡉ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࢆ⏝࠸࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬࠸ࡎࢀ࡟ࡋࢁ㸪ẖ᪥ࡣ

33

政策と調査

第15号（2018年10月）

ᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝࠉ➨ྕ㸦ᖺ᭶㸧ㄗᕪᖜࡢタᐃࢆㄗࡾ㸪㑅ᣲ༊࡜ẚ౛༊࡜ࡶ࡟ྛᨻ
ඪู࡛㆟ᖍண᝿ࡢከࡃࢆእࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲  ࡢẖ᪥ࡢḍ࡟ࡣண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓᯟࡀ┠❧ࡘ㸧㸬ㄗᕪᖜ࡜ᙜ㑅☜⋡ࡢ㛵ಀ  㑅ᣲ༊࠶ࡓࡾࡢᖹᆒྡᣲᩘ㸦ྡᣲᩘ㸸ೃ⿵⪅ྡࡀᣲࡀࡗࡓࡶࡢ㸧ࡀ  ⚊ࢆୗᅇࡿ௒ᅇ㑅ᣲࡢ᝟ໃㄪᰝࡢࡼ࠺࡞ሙྜ࡟ࡣ㸪ೃ⿵⪅ࡢㄪᰝᨭᣢ⋡࡟ࡣ᭱኱࡛s ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿㄗᕪᖜࡀ௜ࡃ㸦ᅗ⾲ 㸧㸬 㑅ᣲ༊࡟ೃ⿵⪅ࡀ  ྡ࠾ࡾ㸪ㄪᰝᨭᣢ⋡࠿ࡽồࡵࡽࢀࡿ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢㄗᕪᖜࡀ࡜ࡶ࡟s㸣࡞ࡽࡤ㸪ᅗ⾲  ࡢࠕㄗᕪᖜsࠖࡢሙྜࡢኴᐇ⥺ࡢᙧ≧࠿ࡽ㸪୧⪅ࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࡀ 㸣㸦[ ㍈㸧ࡢ࡜ࡁ ఩ࡢೃ⿵⪅ࡢᙜ㑅☜⋡ࡣ  ⛬ᗘ㸦\ ㍈㸧࡟࡞ࡿ㸬᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗ࡃࠕㄗᕪᖜsࠖ࡞ࡽ㸪୧⪅ࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࡀ㸣࡞ࡽࡤ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡఩ࡢೃ⿵⪅ࡢᙜ㑅☜⋡ࡣ  ⛬ᗘ࡟ୖࡀࡿ㸬⤫ィ⌮ㄽ㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸ࢀࡤ㸪ᙜⴠண ࡟฼⏝࡛ࡁࡿಶ⚊ࡢᩘࡀᑡ࡞ࡃ࡜ࡶ㸪ࡑࡢ⚊ᩘ࡟ぢྜࡗࡓᙧ࡛ᙜ㑅☜⋡ࡀồࡵࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓㄗᕪ⌮ㄽ࡜ࡣูࡢ⌮ㄽ࡟ࡼࡾ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡓᙜ㑅☜⋡ࢆ฼⏝ࡋ࡚ᙜⴠࡢุูࢆࡼࡾ
᫂☜࡟ࡋࡓ㸦ᙜ㑅☜⋡ࢆ࡛ࡁࡿࡔࡅ  ࠿  ࡟㏆࡙ࡅࡿ㸧ሙྜ࡟ࡣ㸪ྛඪὴูࡢ㆟ᖍண᝿ࡢㄗᕪᖜࡣ⊃ࡃ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ࡶࡕࢁࢇ㸪ᢸᙜグ⪅ࡢ᝟ໃุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᙜⴠࢆࡼࡾ᫂☜࡟ࡍࡿሙྜࡶ㸪ྠᵝ࡟ண᝿ᖜࢆ⊃ࡃ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬 㑅ᣲண ࡜ࡣ㸪ㄪᰝ࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜㑅ᣲ᝟ໃ࡟㛵ࢃࡿࢹ࣮ࢱࢆຍ࿡ࡋ࡚㸪ᙜ㑅࠿ⴠ㑅࠿ࢆࡼࡾ᫂☜࡟ࡋࡓ῝࠸㇂ᆺࡢศᕸ࡟
㸦ᙜ㑅☜⋡  ㏆㎶ࡢᗘᩘࢆᑡ࡞ࡃ㸧ࡍࡿసᴗ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᙜ㑅࠿ⴠ㑅࠿ࡢุูฎ⌮ࢆᙅࡃ㸦ᙜ㑅☜⋡  ㏆㎶ࡢᗘᩘࢆከ
ࡃ㸧ࡍࡿసᴗ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㸬ࡇࡢసᴗ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪࢔࣮ࢺࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ⚗ࡌᡭ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㸬ࡓࡔ㸪᝟ໃุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧ࢆຍ࿡ࡋ࡚ᙜⴠุูࢆ᫂☜࡟ࡋࡓ㸦ㄗᕪᖜࢆ⊃ࡃࡋࡓ㸧ࡇ࡜ࡀ㸪ࡑࡢ᝟ሗࢆ┠࡟ࡋࡓㄞ⪅࡟㏞ᝨࢆཬࡰࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸࠿㸬㏫࡟ุูࢆᙅࡵ࡚᥋ᡓࡢぢ❧࡚ࢆቑࡸࡍࡇ࡜࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ሗ㐨ࡢ౑࿨࡟㐺࠺࠿࡝࠺࠿㸬࠸ࡎࢀ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ㸪ࡑࡢุ᩿ࡣ㞴ࡋࡃ㸪ሗ㐨ྛ♫ࡢ୰࡛㆟ㄽࡉࢀࡿ࡭ࡁࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿ㸬㸲㸬㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢᙜⴠண᝿ࡢ⢭ᗘண᝿㆟ᖍᩘࡢእࢀලྜࡣᅗ⾲  ࢆࡳࢀࡤศ࠿ࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ண᝿㆟ᖍᩘ࡜࠸࠺⥲య࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ㸪ಶࠎࡢ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃࢆⓗ☜࡟࡜ࡽ࠼࡚࠸ࡿ࠿࡝࠺࠿ࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲  ୖẁࡣ㸪 ఩ࡸ  ఩ࢆ  ఩ண᝿ࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪ᶓ㍈ࢆࠕᚓ⚊⋡  ఩̿ ఩ࠖ㸪⦪㍈ࢆࠕᚓ
⚊⋡  ఩㸫 ఩࡛ࠖసᡂࡋ࡚࠶ࡿ㸬࡞࠾㸪 ྡࡋ࠿❧ೃ⿵ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸㑅ᣲ༊ࡣ  ఩ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࢆ ࡜ࡋ࡚ฎ⌮ࡋࡓ㸬ᅗ⾲  ୗẁࡣ㸪⤖ᯝ  ఩࡜ண᝿  ఩ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪ G ࢆ㝵⣭ᖜ ࡛ᥥ࠸ࡓእࢀ㑅ᣲ༊ᩘࡢࣄࢫࢺࢢ࣒࡛ࣛ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡟ᥖ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ
⾲࡟ࡣ㸪ȊG ࡜ᖹᆒ್㸬࠾ࡼࡧ㸪᭱኱እࡋ㸦 ␒኱ࡁࡃእࡋࡓ㸧㑅ᣲ༊  ࡘࢆ㝖እࡋ࡚ィ⟬ࡋࡓࡶࡢࡶేグࡋ࡚࠶ࡿ㸬ㄞ኎ࡢ⢭ᗘࡢⰋࡉࡀ㝿❧ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࢢࣛࣇࢆ୍
ぢࡍࢀࡤ㸪ᮅ᪥ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ୍␒ࡼ࠸ࡼ࠺࡟ぢ࠼ࡿࡀ㸪኱㜰  ༊࡛ᚓ⚊⋡  ఩ࡢೃ⿵⪅ࡀᙜ㑅ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸࡜ࡋࡓࡓࡵ࡟㸪ㄗᕪࡢᖹ᪉࿴ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ
࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ẖ᪥ࡣ୰┙ㄪᰝ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪௚♫ࡼࡾ㐜ࡃㄪᰝࡋࡓࡋࡓ࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎ㸪᝟ໃࢆ࠺ࡲࡃᙜ࡚࡚࠸
࡞࠸㸬タィࡉࢀࡓᶆᮏࢧ࢖ࢬࡀ୍␒ᑠࡉ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡶ
ᙳ㡪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ඹྠࡣ㧗ᅇ⟅⋡㸦ඛ㏙
ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟పᅇ཰⋡࡜ㄞࡳ᭰࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸧ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ㸪᥋ᡓ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢእࡋࡶ㝿❧ࡗ࡚ከ࠸㸬ᅗ⾲ ㄗᕪᖜูࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪ࡜ᙜ㑅☜⋡

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ೃ⿵⪅ྠኈࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪೃ⿵⪅ $ ࡜ % ࡢ஧⪅ᑐỴࡢሙྜ㸪ྛ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡀ࢞࢘ࢫศᕸ࡜ࡳ࡞ࡏࡿ࡞ࡽࡤ㸪A ࡀ຾ࡘ☜⋡ࡣ㸪

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නξʹɎ ି௓஢ಲ ି௓ಳ ݁ ି ଶ ݀‫ݐ‬ೋಲಳ࡛ィ⟬࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪ܼ஺ ೃ⿵⪅ $ ࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ܼ஻ ೃ⿵⪅ % ࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡࡛㸪᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ $% ࡢᕪࡢศᕸ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᶆ‽೫ᕪࡣ㸪ɐ௓ಲಳ ൌ ɐ௓ಲ ଶ ൅ ɐ௓ಳ ଶ െ ʹɏ୅୆ ɐ௓ಲ ɐ௓ಳ  Ȫࡣྛᶆ‽೫ᕪ㸪Ȩࡣ┦㛵ಀᩘ ࡜ࡍࡿ㸬࡞࠾㸪஧⪅ᑐỴ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵɏ୅୆ ൌ െͳ࡜ࡋ
࡚㸪+DVWLQJV ࡢ㏆ఝᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬ࡋࡓ㸬

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018)

34

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK1R 2FWREHUᅗ⾲ ࠝୖẁࠞእࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊㸸ᶓ㍈ࡣᚓ⚊⋡ ఩ ఩㸪⦪㍈ࡣ ఩ ఩㸦ᙜ㑅ண᝿⪅ࡀ ఩ࡔࡗࡓ࡞ࡽ‫ە‬㸪 ఩࡞ࡽ‫ڹ‬㸧ࠝୗẁࠞࠕᙜ㑅⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡜እࡋࡓᙜ㑅ண᝿⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࠖࡢࣄࢫࢺࢢ࣒ࣛ㸦㝵⣭ᖜ㸳㸣㸧

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ᅗ⾲  ࡜  ࡣ㸪ᅗ⾲  ୗẁࡢ⾲ࡢᩘ್ࢆどぬ໬ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ྛሗ㐨ᶵ㛵ࡢ᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡀබ㛤ࡉࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㸪 ఩࡟࡞ࡿ࡜ண᝿ࡋࡓࡀᐇ㝿࡟ࡣ  ఩௨ୗ࡟࡞ࡗࡓೃ⿵⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡜  ఩࡟࡞ࡗࡓೃ⿵⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࢆṧᕪ࡟ぢ❧࡚ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪ṧᕪᖹ᪉࿴࡟ࡼࡿእࢀලྜࡢศᯒࡀྍ⬟࡟࡞ࡿ㸬  ఩ண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ࠺ࡕ୍␒኱ࡁࡃእࡋ
ࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡔࡅࢆ㝖እࡋࡓࡶࡢ
㸦ᅗ⾲  ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࠕ᭱኱እࡋ  ࡘ㝖እࠖ㸧࡛ࡳ࡚ࡶ㸪ㄞ኎ࡢ␲ఝⓗṧᕪᖹ᪉࿴ࡣ㝿❧ࡗ࡚ᑠࡉࡃ㸪ᮅ᪥࣭ẖ᪥࣭ඹྠࡢ༙ศ⛬ᗘ࠿ࡑࢀ௨ୗ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ㄞ኎࡜ྜྠㄪᰝ
ࢆࡋࡓ㸦ྠࡌࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸧᪥⤒ࡼࡾࡶ⢭ᗘࡣࡼ࠸㸬 ṇ☜࡞㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࢆ▱ࡿࡓࡵ࡟୍⣬ࢆ㑅ࡪ࡞ࡽ㸪ㄞ኎᪂⪺ࡔ̿̿࡜ุ᩿ࡋ࡚ࡼ࠸ࡔࢁ࠺࠿㸬ࡑࡢ෌᳨ドࡢࡓࡵ࡟㸪඲  ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃ࡟ᑐࡍࡿグ஦⾲⌧ࢆᢤࡁฟࡋ࡚ᩚ⌮ࡋ࡚ࡳࡓ㸦ᑠ♒࣭໭⏣࣭ᯇ⏣ᅗ⾲ 㸧㸬ᅗ⾲  ࡣ㸪ࠕ᥋ᡓࠖ⾲⌧ࡔࡗࡓ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢ  ఩࡜  ఩ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࢆ㝵⣭ᖜ ࡛ᥥ࠸ࡓࣄࢫࢺࢢ࣒࡛ࣛ࠶ࡿ㸬ㄞ኎ࡢࠕ᥋ᡓࠖ⾲⌧ࡣ  㑅ᣲ༊࡛ぢࡽࢀࡓࡢ࡟ᑐࡋ㸪ྠࡌࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ
⏝࠸ࡓ᪥⤒ࡣ࡯ࡰ༙ᩘࡢ  㑅ᣲ༊㸪ᮅ᪥ࡶ᪥⤒࡜࡯ࡰྠᩘࡢ  㑅ᣲ༊ࢆࠕ᥋ᡓࠖ࡜ぢ❧࡚࡚࠸ࡓ㸬ㄞ኎ࡣᚓ⚊⋡ᕪ㹼ࡔࡗࡓ 㑅ᣲ༊࡟ᑐࡋ 㑅ᣲ༊ࢆⓗ☜࡟᥋ᡓ࡜ぢ❧࡚ࡓࡀ㸪ᚓ⚊⋡ᕪ 㹼

Ғͳ͹ย

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ᅗ⾲ ࠕᙜ㑅⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡜እࡋࡓᙜ㑅ண᝿⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࠖࡢᖹ᪉࿴࡟ࡼࡿ⢭ᗘẚ㍑
㸦ᩘ್ࡣᅗ⾲  ୗẁࡢྛ⾲ཧ↷㸧ᅗ⾲ ࠕᙜ㑅⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡜እࡋࡓᙜ㑅ண᝿⪅ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ࡢᕪࠖࡢᖹ᪉࿴¹ᗘᩘ࡟ࡼࡿ⢭ᗘẚ㍑
㸦ᩘ್ࡣᅗ⾲  ୗẁࡢྛ⾲ཧ↷㸧

35

政策と調査

第15号（2018年10月）

ᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝࠉ➨ྕ㸦ᖺ᭶㸧ᅗ⾲ ᝟᝟ໃ⾲⌧ࡀࡀࠕ᥋ᡓࠖࡢ㑅㑅ᣲ༊࡛࡛ࡢᚓ⚊⋡  ఩࡜  ఩ࡢᕪ
ᕪࡢᖹ
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䛂᥋ᡓ䛃⾲⌧䛿䛿䠈㻝㻜㻠 㑅ᣲ༊㻌㻌᪥⤒䛂᥋ᡓ䛃⾲⌧䛿䛿䠈㻡㻠 㑅ᣲ༊㻌㻌ᮅ᪥䛂᥋ᡓ䛃⾲⌧䛿䛿䠈㻡㻣 㑅ᣲ༊㻌㻌䃂ሺͳ ఩䛸 ʹ ఩䛾ᚓ⚊⋡ᕪሻଶൌ ૠ૙૝૚Ǥ ૜૝㻌䃂ሺͳ ఩䛸 ʹ ఩䛾ᚓ⚊⋡ᕪሻଶൌ ૛ૢ૝૜Ǥ ૠ૝㻌㻌䃂ሺͳ ఩䛸 ʹ ఩䛾ᚓ⚊⋡ᕪሻଶൌ ૜૜૙૜Ǥ ૜ૠ㻌㻝㻜㻠 䛷㝖䛧䛯ᖹᖹᆒ䠙㻢㻢㻣㻚㻣㻌㻌㻡㻠 䛷㝖䛧䛯ᖹᖹᆒ䠙㻡㻡㻠㻚㻡㻝㻌㻌㻡㻣 䛷㝖䛧䛯ᖹᖹᆒ䠙㻡㻡㻣㻚㻥㻡㻌㻌ᅗ⾲ 
ㄞㄞ኎࣭࣭᪥⤒࣭ᮅ᪥࡛
࡛ሗ㐨ࡉࢀࡓࠕ᥋ᡓࠖࡢ᝟
᝟ໃ⾲⌧ᅗ⾲ ᐇ㝿ࡢᙜᙜ㑅⪅࡟࡟௜ࡅࡽࢀࡓ᝟ໃ⾲⾲⌧㸦᥋ᡓ࠿ᑡᑡࡋ࡛ࡶ຾຾ࡕ
ࡑ࠺࠿㈇ࡅࡑ࠺࠿ࡢࡢ  ศ㢮㸧ࢆㄞ኎ᑐ᪥⤒࣭ᮅ᪥࡛
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45

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018)

36

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㸦 㑅ᣲ༊ࡀヱᙜ㸧ࡢ࠺ࡕ኱༙ࡢ  㑅ᣲ༊㸪㹼㸦 㑅ᣲ༊ࡀヱᙜ㸧࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ᪥⤒ࡀ 㸪ᮅ᪥ࡀ  㑅ᣲ༊࡟ᑐࡋಸ௨ୖࡢ  㑅ᣲ༊ࢆ᥋ᡓ࡜ぢ❧࡚࡚࠸ࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ᝟ໃ⾲⌧ࡣᅗ⾲  ࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᩚ⌮࡛ࡁ㸪ㄞ኎ࡢࠕ᥋ᡓࠖண᝿㑅ᣲ༊࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⾲⌧ࡣከᙬ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 ᅗ⾲  ࡣ㸪ᐇ㝿ࡢᙜ㑅⪅࡟௜ࡅࡽࢀࡓ᝟ໃ⾲⌧ࢆࠕ᥋ᡓࠖ࠿ࠕᑡࡋ࡛ࡶ຾ࡘྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠖ࠿ࠕᑡ
ࡋ࡛ࡶ㈇ࡅࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠖ࠿ࡢ  ศ㢮࡟ࡋ࡚㸪ㄞ኎࡟ᑐࡍࡿ᪥⤒࡜ᮅ᪥ࡢ⾲⌧ࡢ㐪࠸ࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࡓࡶ
ࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 ఩࡜  ఩ࡢᚓ⚊⋡ᕪࡀ ᮍ‶ࡢ 㑅ᣲ༊࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㞟ィࡋࡓᅗ⾲ E ࡛ࡣ㸪ㄞ኎ࡣ 㑅ᣲ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚຾ࡘೃ⿵ࢆ᫂♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪᪥⤒ࡣ㸪ᮅ᪥ࡣ  㑅ᣲ༊࡜ㄞ኎ࡢಸ௨ୖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚຾ࡘ
ೃ⿵ࢆ᫂♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬୍᪉࡛㸪ᐇ㝿࡟ࡣᙜ㑅ࡋࡓ࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎሗ㐨࡛ࡣ㈇ࡅࡑ࠺ࡔ࡜⾲⌧ࡋࡓᩘࡣ㸪ㄞ኎ࡀ  ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚᪥⤒ࡣ 㸪ᮅ᪥ࡣ  ࡜ከࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬 ࡇࡇ࡟㸪㑅ᣲ᝟ໃሗ㐨࡟ᑐࡍࡿጼໃࡢ㐪࠸ࡀぢࡽࢀࡿ㸬 ఩ண᝿ࡀᅽಽⓗ࡟ṇ☜࡛࠶ࡗࡓㄞ኎ࡢ⣬㠃ࡀ㸪᥋ᡓண᝿⾲⌧࡟࠶ࡩࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡢព࿡ࡣ
ఱ࠿㸬ㄞ኎ࡢࡳࡀබ♧᪥ࡢ  ᪥ᚋ㸦ㄪᰝ⤊஢⩣᪥㸧ࡢᮅห࡛ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ᝟ໃࡲ࡛⣽࠿ࡃሗ㐨ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜㸦ᅗ⾲  ཧ↷㸬௚♫ࡣ  ᪥௨ୖ㐜ࢀ࡚ሗ㐨㸧㸪ᢞ⚊᪥๓ࠎ᪥㸦㔠᭙᪥㸧ࡢ⤊┙᝟ໃሗ㐨㸦᥋ᡓ༊ࢆ୰ᚰ࡟  㑅ᣲ༊෌ㄪᰝ㸧࡛㸪᝟ໃኚ໬ࢆఏ࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿࡇ࡜ࡢㄪᰝタィ࡟ྜࢃࡏࡓᑐᛂ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺࠿㸬 ᅗ⾲  ࡣ㸪ᙜ㑅⪅ࡢண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࢆẚ౛ࣈࣟࢵࢡࡈ࡜࡟ᩚ⌮ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬࡝ࡇ࠿  ♫ࡔࡅࡀᙜ㑅ண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡣ㸪㯮Ꮠ࡟ⓑᏐ࡛┠❧ࡘᙧ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬 ♫ࡔࡅᙜ࡚ࡓ࡜ࡇࢁࡣ⥙᥃ࡢᯟ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬඲♫እࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡣኴᏐ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚
࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ㄽドࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟㸪ㄞ኎ࡣ㸪᝟ໃ⾲⌧ࡣ࡜ࡶ࠿ࡃ  ఩ண᝿ࡣṇ☜࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲  ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ㸪ㄞ኎  ♫ࡔࡅࡀ  ఩ண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡣ↓࠸㸬ㄞ኎࡜ྠࡌࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚࠸ࡿ᪥⤒࡛ࡣ㸪᪥⤒  ♫
ࡔࡅࡀእࡋࡓࡶࡢࡀ  ࡘ࠶ࡿࡋ㸪᪥⤒ࡔࡅᙜ࡚ࡓࡶࡢࡀ  ࡘ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢㄽド࠾ࡼࡧࡇࡢᅗ⾲ ࡢ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽࡶ㸪ࠕሗ㐨ࡣㄪᰝࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃࡅࢀ
࡝ࡶ㸪ᙜⴠண᝿ࡣྛ♫ࡢศᯒຊ࡟ࡼࡾ኱ࡁࡃኚࢃ
ࡿࠖࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ඹྠࡣ㸪 ఩ண᝿ࢆእࡋࡓࡢࡀ  㑅ᣲ༊࡜୍␒ከ࠸࠺࠼࡟㸪 ♫ࡔࡅእࡋࡓࡶࡢࡶ  ࡜᭱ከ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᮅ᪥ࡣ  ♫ࡔࡅእࡋࡀ ࡜ከ࠸ࡀ㸪ᮅ᪥ࡔࡅᙜ࡚ࡓࡶࡢࡶ  ࡘ࡜୍␒ከ
ࡃ㸪ᙜⴠศᯒ࡟ࡣⒷࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲  እࡋࡓ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢ୍ぴ
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࡝‫ۢ̕ۆ‬એཁ̏ۢೈ ਈ಺ઔ̒ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̒ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̒ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̒ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̒ۢ
ਈ಺ઔ̔ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̔ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̔ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̔ۢ ਈ಺ઔ̔ۢ
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ࠦծ̐ۢ

ࠦծ̐ۢ

ࠦծ̐ۢ
ௗ࡜̏ۢ

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ෳԮ̐ۢ
ࠦծ̏ۢ
ࠦծ̐ۢ
ௗ࡜̏ۢ

୉෾̏ۢ

୉෾̑ۢ
ࣝࣉౣ̏ۢ ࣝࣉౣ̏ۢ ࣝࣉౣ̏ۢ ࣝࣉౣ̏ۢ ࣝࣉౣ̏ۢ
ೆ
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ԯೆ̒ۢ
ԯ

37

政策と調査

第15号（2018年10月）

ᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝࠉ➨ྕ㸦ᖺ᭶㸧㸳㸬⤊ࢃࡾ࡟
ᮏ✏ࡢศᯒ࡟ࡼࡾ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࡇ࡜࡜㸪᥎ᐹ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜ࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࡿ㸬ձㄪᰝࡢタィ࡜㐠⏝ࡢᙳ㡪୰┙ㄪᰝࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓẖ᪥ࡢ❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢண᝿㆟ᖍࡀ୍␒ṇ☜࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪㏿ሗ➇த࡟ࡼࡽ࡞
࠸ㄪᰝタィࡢ᭷ຠᛶࡀ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬 ຍ┕♫ࡢ⣬㠃సᡂ࡟㛫࡟ྜ࠺ࡼ࠺࡟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡸグ஦ࢆ㓄ಙࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ඹྠࡢ㆟ᖍ㸦ᙜⴠ㸧ண᝿ࡀ୍␒ᝏ࠿ࡗࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪ᅇ⟅⋡ࡀ㝿❧ࡗ࡚㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡼ࠺࡞ㄪᰝタィࡀㄪᰝ⢭ᗘ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬 ௚♫࡟ඛ㥑ࡅ࡚බ♧᪥⩣ࠎ᪥ᮅห࡟ᑠ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃ
ࡢヲሗࡶᥖ㍕ࡋࡓㄞ኎ࡣ㸪⣬㠃࡟᥋ᡓ᝟ໃࡀከ࠿
ࡗࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪㏿ሗែໃࡀ⣬㠃ෆᐜ࡟ࡶᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋࡓ࡜᥎ᐹࡉࢀࡿ㸬ղ⤫ィⓗฎ⌮㸦ࢧ࢖࢚ࣥࢫ㸧࡬ࡢᙳ㡪 ྛᨻඪࡢ❧ೃ⿵⪅඲ဨࡀ᥋ᡓ㸦ᙜ㑅☜⋡ 㸧࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓሙྜࡢண᝿⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍࡢㄗᕪᖜࢆ㉸࠼ࡿሗ㐨ࢆࡋࡓ♫ࡣ㸪ண᝿㆟ᖍ⾲ࢆᥖ㍕ࡋࡓ♫ࡢ୰㸦᪥⤒ࢆ㝖ࡃ㸧࡛ࡣ↓࠿ࡗࡓ㸬⤫ィⓗ࡞ุ᩿ࢆཧ⪃࡟ࡋࡓ࡜࠸࠼ࡿ㸬 ୍␒᭷ຠᩘࡢከ࠸ඹྠࡢᶆᮏㄗᕪࡀ௚♫࡟ẚ࡭࡚ᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿࡣࡎࡔࡀ㸪ண᝿㆟ᖍࡢㄗᕪᖜࡣ኱ࡁ
࠿ࡗࡓ㸬㏿ሗែໃ࡟ࡼࡿㄪᰝタィࡢᙳ㡪ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚㸪᥎ィᚓ⚊⋡ࡢㄗᕪᖜࢆᗈࡆࡓ㸦ᙜⴠุᐃࢆࡺࡿ
ࡵࡓ㸧ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ճሗ㐨ࡢࡓࡵࡢุ᩿㸦࢔࣮ࢺ㸧ࡢᙳ㡪 ୍␒᭷ຠᩘࡢᑡ࡞࠸ẖ᪥ࡢᶆᮏㄗᕪࡀ௚♫࡟ẚ࡭࡚኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡿࡣࡎࡔࡀ㸪ẖ᪥ࡢண᝿㆟ᖍࡢㄗᕪᖜࡣᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸦࡜ࡃ࡟ẚ౛༊㸧㸬ᚑ᮶ࡢㄗᕪ⌮ㄽ࡜ࡣูࡢศᯒࡀ࡞ࡉࢀࡓ࠿㸪ᢸᙜ⪅ࡢ᝟ໃุ᩿ࡀ
ຍ࿡ࡉࢀࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸㸬㧗࠸ࡀ㸪పᅇ཰⋡ࡢࠕᶆᮏㄪᰝࠖ࡜↓సⅭᢳฟ࡛࡞࠸
ࠕ๭ᙜἲࠖࡢ࡝ࡕࡽࡀṇ☜࠿ࡣ㸪ࡶࡣࡸྛㄪᰝ⪅ࡢಙᛕ࡟ᅉࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸࠿㸬Ᏻಸᨻᶒୗ࡛ࡢ㏆ᖺࡢἼ஘ࡢ↓࠸㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ㸪᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࡀㄞࡳ
࡟ࡃ࠸㑅ᣲࢆ㸪௒ࡼࡾప࠸ᅇ཰⋡࡛࡝࠺ண ࡍࡿ࠿㸬ࡑ࠺ࡋࡓ༴ᶵឤࡢඹ᭷࡜ㄢ㢟ࡢ࿘▱ࡢࡓࡵ࡟㸪ᇸ⋢኱Ꮫ♫఍ㄪᰝ◊✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮ࡀ୺ദࡍࡿࠕୡㄽ࣭㑅ᣲㄪᰝ◊✲኱఍ࠖ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࣃࢿ࣭ࣝࢹ࢕ࢫ࢝ࢵࢩࣙࣥࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࡓ㸦ࠗᨻ⟇࡜ㄪᰝ࠘➨  ྕཧ↷㸧㸬ࡑࡢ㆟ㄽࡢ㢟ᮦ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪᪂ࡋ࠸ヨࡳࡀⓎ⾲ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࢡࣟࢫ࣭࣐
࣮ࢣࢸ࢕ࣥࢢࡢᓊ⏣㸦㸧ࡣ㸪5'' ྠᵝ࡟࢖ࣥࢱ࣮
ࢿࢵࢺ࡛ࣛࣥࢲ࣒࡟↓సⅭᢳฟࡋ࡚ㄪᰝ࡛ࡁࡿ 5',7ἲ࡛㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࢆ᥈ࡿヨࡳࢆⓎ⾲ࡋࡓ㸬࣐ࢡ࣑ࣟࣝ⥲ྜ◊✲ᡤࡢᮧୖ㸦㸧ࡣ㸪࢔ࢡࢭࢫࣃࢿࣝࢆ౑ࡗࡓ
࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࢿࢵࢺㄪᰝ࡛⾜ື㑅ᢥᐇ㦂㸦ࢥࣥࢪࣙ࢖ࣥࢺ
ศᯒ㸧ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ᚓ⚊⋡ண ࢆヨࡳࡓ㸬࢖ࣥࢸ࣮ࢪࡢஂ
ෆ࣭஧⎼㸦㸧ࡣ㸪❧᠇Ẹ୺ࡢቑໃࢆࢺࣞࣥࢻㄪᰝ
࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࢿࢵࢺㄪᰝ࡟ࡼࡿᅇ⟅㑅ᢥᡤせ᫬㛫㸦ࣞࢫ࣏ࣥࢫ࣭ࣞ࢖ࢸࣥࢩ̿㸧ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠕ☜ಙᗘࢫࢥ࢔ࠖࢆ౑ࡗ࡚࡜ࡽ࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡍ࡛࡟࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࢿࢵࢺࢆ฼⏝ࡋࡓୡㄽㄪᰝࡸ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࢔࣓ࣜ࢝ྠᵝ࡟㸪᪥ᮏ࡟࠾࠸
࡚ࡶ᪂ࡋ࠸ㄪᰝࡢྍ⬟ᛶࡀᶍ⣴ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࡣ㸪ḟ௦ࡢୡㄽ࣭㑅ᣲㄪᰝࡢ㛤Ⓨ࡟㈨ࡍࡿࡣ
ࡎ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
㸦ᇸ⋢኱Ꮫ࣭♫఍ㄪᰝ◊✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮㸧


ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
┦⏣┿ᙪ㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻣㻕㻚㻌 ⡿኱⤫㡿㑅䛾ண 䛿䛺䛬እ䜜䛯䛛䠈㻶㻹㻾㻭 䝅䞁䝫䝆䜴䝮㻔㻞㻜㻝㻣㻚㻜㻥㻚㻜㻤㻕䠊㻌ᓊ⏣඾Ꮚ㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻤㻕㻚㻌㻾㻰㻵㼀 䜢⏝䛔䛯㠀䝟䝛䝹↓సⅭᢳฟ䛻䜘䜛 㼃㻱㻮 ㄪᰝ䛾ྍ⬟ᛶ䠉㻞㻜㻝㻣 ᖺ⾗㆟㝔㑅ᣲ㻝㻡䠈䛾䝖䝷䝑䜻䞁䜾ㄪᰝ䛻䜘䜛⪃ᐹ䠉䠈ᨻ⟇䛸ㄪᰝ䠈㻝㻟㻥㻙㻡㻤㻚㻌
ᑠ♒ᑑ⏕䞉໭⏣ಇ୍䞉ᯇ⏣ᫎ஧㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻤㻕㻚㻌㻞㻜㻝㻣 ᖺ⾗㝔㑅䛻䛚䛡䜛㑅ᣲண 䛾ẚ㍑ศᯒ䇷ሗ㐨ྛ♫䛾ண䛾ṇ☜䛥䜢᳨ド䛩䜛䇷㻚㻌 ᨻ⟇䛸ㄪᰝ㻘㻌㻝㻝㻠㻘㻌㻡㻟㻙㻣㻤㻚㻌ஂෆభඔ䞉஧⎼ဴஓ㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻤㻕䠊᭷ᶒ⪅ಶே䛾ᨭᣢᨻඪኚ໬䛿ண 䛷䛝䜛䛛䠉䝺䝇䝫䞁䝇䞉䝺䜲䝔䞁䝅䞊䜢㻝㻡䠈㻢㻣㻙㻣㻠㻚㻌⏝䛔䛯᪂ᣦᶆ䛾ᥦ᱌䠉䠈ᨻ⟇䛸ㄪᰝ䠈㻝ᯇ⏣ᫎ஧㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻢㻕㻚㻌 ୡㄽㄪᰝ䛿䛂ୡㄽ䛃䜢䛸䜙䛘䛶䛔䜛㻟㻝㻥㻘㻌㻢㻢㻙㻣㻟㻚㻌䛛㻘㻌㻶㼛㼡㼞㼚㼍㼘㼕㼟㼙㻘㻌㻟ᮧୖᬛ❶㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻤㻕䠊䝛䝑䝖䝸䝃䞊䝏䜢⏝䛔䛯᭷ᶒ⪅䛾㻝㻡䠈㻡㻥㻙㻢㻢㻚㻌㑅ᢥ཯ᛂᐇ㦂䛾ヨ䜏䠈ᨻ⟇䛸ㄪᰝ䠈㻝 㑅ᣲㄪᰝࡢṔྐࢆ᣺ࡾ㏉ࡿ࡜㸪 ᖺࡢ࢔࣓ࣜ࢝
኱⤫㡿㑅ᣲࡢᙜⴠண ࡢ஦౛ࡣ㸪♫఍Ꮫࡸ⤫ィᏛࡢᩍ⛉᭩࡟ᥖ㍕ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࡯࡝ࡢ஦௳࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࣇࣟࣜࢲࡢ㛤⚊⤖ᯝࡀㄞࡵࡎ࡟ࣈࢵࢩࣗ࡜ࢦ࢔ࡢᙜᡴࡕࡀ஧
㌿୕㌿ࡋࡓ  ᖺ኱⤫㡿㑅ᣲࡶ㸪ࣁࣜࢫ࢖ࣥࢱࣛࢡ
ࢸ࢕ࣈࡀ࢖ࣥࢱ࣮ࢿࢵࢺㄪᰝ୍࡛␒ṇ☜࡟ண ࡋࡓࡇ࡜୍࡛኱஦௳࡜ゝ࠼ࡿ㸬 ᖺ࡟ࡣ㸪᝟ໃㄪᰝ࡛ᅽ
ಽⓗ࡟ඃ఩ࡔࡗࡓࣄ࣮࣭ࣛࣜࢡࣜࣥࢺࣥࡀࢺࣛࣥࣉ࡟
ᩋࢀࡓࡇ࡜࡛㸪ㄪᰝ᪉ἲㄽࡢ༴ᶵࡀ㟢࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬 ᪥ᮏࡢ 5'' ㄪᰝࡢᐇ㉁ᅇ཰⋡ࡣࡲࡔ 㹼㸣ྎ࡜࢔࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ 㸣⛬ᗘ㸦┦⏣㸧࡜ẚ࡭࡚ࡣࡿ࠿࡟

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018)

38

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