TCER Newsletter No.29

 1 March 2006            ´ pÓ ÂÊ Î Uk Vm                          ÇÛáu×ù¹ Õíð¥¦Öêl tÜÅoñ»óò Åo v &A ;% ÉA 0  ðó ñ tÜ Åo «©  ðô ñ    Ïô  Åo v   ðõ ñ    Ïó  Åo vl ÊÎ  v ;, ·}
 ðö ñ ì Û ¬¼ : 4" 6ôò  ÊÎ v
õò Qk \ Ih kT ðó ñJ SJ ; èà º   ðô ñ    aO iQ k \I hk T   ðõ ñ      Q k\ Ih kT  ðö ñ  ]i SL O Xð ±ç Q k \ Ih kT ñ  ð÷ ñ   bO iQ k \I hk T  ðø ñ  

óòÅov&A;%ÉA0ðó ñt Ü Åo «©´pÓÂÊÎUkVmðĀûüÿñ<;¶Gä$2×;ZWXjmO7!BJdfM;ý
úüÿð     ñ?emiW[;  ð     ñ'µ2-6"C¢Gª-6"=/¾¤9'Ar;8+E1;Áh^g<ýúüÿ?ûüþÿ:<é-6%B=0H'n½n½+D:æ5"6"+#8-6"=/Āûüÿ;Á'~ª-28+E=7Ù36"9"Ø²:<FD2  ?ëÚº;ÇÆ:@Bãëî>'ïG¸>2+8°³:%*CßÀq;Á:-"Ñ'Ý0AD

6"C+8'!B=-2-&-"=Þ{å;,:@BÓÂv8|y;UbYm:@Csë'î=C@#:9B=-2=2ÁGv;ËÊÎâ]iSLOXG<.>8/CÌ;ÊÎ]iSLOX8|y;¡GC+8:@BÓâ;ÐÑ:£'*6(=-21;Ôµß­<()¬-Í¸ÈÁ;7(C'®328"#+8'7(=/+#-2Ä¿:%"6ÊÎÁ;¨Gª-`mc_KS;z?jmNkP_K[m;Ãx:BÒH7(=-21-61D:F0¯-"Āûüÿ;iRGw§-=-2=2   Qk\IhkT?   Qk\IhkT ]iSLOX´JSJÓÂ

 2 

TCER Newsletter No.29

March 2006

Q[Vc?HOH:æã¹Y`OKMUG%×%©,4%=,1)D=5â¦ì#Ah»,4%=,1wèx:ËÏ¤£934>véG¶Þ,4Ü%16Ú!4"B=-n;)D=5qf9ËÏ#A:Î¸É¢µ>BtDýúûü:d:À|Gï33
º°Üç9%Ö&1624"B=-ñõ ò   Ñõ Ä j r  ÑõÄjr; ¯ ª}õ®~@BÙeÆL^aWP94ÜF
D=,1áî;qg:æB5-ôó j·ñµò934õó ¾Óñµò934öó j·Çñµò934÷ó iÓñµò934øóÄj:kpÒ934ùó¨ËÏ934áîôø934;¶Þ:Õ´Gä=!¨:Äjr9"4á=-áîù934;¢µæBß-C)698B

ß+D=,1 %×%ª}®@BËÏr$és+Df:áî934:à­$8+D=,1ñö ò    Ñô Ä j rb ËÏ r : * µu  ¯ªñ½ò} ®@B¬ÍÆð ë 94 ÑôÄjrGé
s,=-/D9%×%ª} ®@B94 ÑôËÏrGés,=-¬ÍÆ:L^aWPbZSY;qg:JKXbNIU94*98D=-
-59xåí\c_5>"ÊA.,4"B=-$*{:<77

0@E,'"ï,=-ñ÷ ò ê Ü ¥¼ 93  4z5"ÊA.,=,1@9ÔÁÅ·:â¿mêÜ:±]T_9Â¡,4êÜG¥¼1,=,1   ¯  ªo(5ÔÁÅ·9ß+D=,1:5"ÊA.
1,=-¨ « ² §  Ã Ý¨«â¿m³lÔÁËÏQaRcêÜâ¿m³lÔÁËÏQaRcêÜÑ 1 Ð ØyÑ 1 Ð Øyñ Ìò
Ñ 1 ² ±â;â¿m³lÔÁËÏQaRc
ñÛ§ Tokyo Center for Economic ResearchÈÌñ Ìò
Ñ 1 ² ±â;â¿m³lÔÁËÏQaRc
ñTokyo Center for Economic Researchò6Ì-C

TCER Newsletter No.29

 3 

March 2006

­TCER®¬&«0@c¬ 2 n mM.&0@c)o2¢B4A  2  C0s«¬
 3 n mMz|)`jmz &~stkt¦&£q)7sKC~szK¦&
G|iy)¥"( NzX&)&«0s¬
 4 n mM?n) b&!v0s)
(1) ~sCz¦&gD©Cw(2) ~sCz¦&+*,Cr(3) ~sCz¦&+*,tdUC
p`(4) K+*,Cr$p`(5) ?FE0sbp;
(6) ?FEe &"mM)b&!_0s 3  ~C8
«~tb¬ 5 n mM~ve &")"tb&(1) [=~¤'~(2) ]V§'~(3) ~$}&D:(4) 0s9D:(5) 3«¬
 2 n mMz|)`jmz &~stkt¦&£q)7sK#~szK¦
&G|iy)¥"( NzX&)&«0s¬
 3 n mM?n)0s)
(1) g©#w

b&!

(2) ~s#z¦&+*,#r(3) ~s#z¦&+*,tdU#p`(4) K+*,#r$p`(5) ?FE0sbp;
(6) zJªb(7) 3?FE§Y&0s
«0@c¬ 4 n mM0@c)o2¢B4A

 2  \J«Uf¬
 5 n mM|0 10 I5<0 2 I5<#J 50 I5<) 
2. |01¡#%s@P6&4|0)U!&"&«¡6¬
 6 n |0#0J8Ha)^|08 ')¡6&
2. JJ8Ha)^|08 TL&«~ >¬
 6 n mM~Qm~C~&
2. Qm~ve &~)"tb&(1) ¨Qm~V§'~«6l¬(2) ]Qm~V§'~ 7 n |0
0#J6l 2 Z&(3) ]|08x#%Qm~%: 2. |00#J6l{/]
'$'~"]6 W6& 6&3. ~Qm~5S~&"&
3. u RJ#%h¡6'|0«~|¬
0#J6lO6-|00#
 7 n mM~4|0 |

 4 

TCER Newsletter No.29

!"6=!¾*-!?
ÆP"¯!1~ilÓ.¿¡
"!~iw0.#+
2. a¿¡!Î" ÌG!9§jÎ·Ò×E.¶"C =C
P"^GD¬§jA M B¯.#+$March 2006

¾Z!<Ñ-ÛÅ<Ü« 8  66 *$ ¾Z" !£*,Å<-
(1) 8(2) Ã<(3) <
2. Ã<*-66 *$ ¾Z"Õ*,!1¿]oK.#+Ûa¿¡!JLÜ
« 8  a¿¡".1JLP"}B@
"+¿]!¥Ê{3y -º'+.-cV ¦©Z=!W« 9  ¿]!X1&"¥ÂR
z1xv ¾Z=!m¾1±36=-¸166 *$ ¾Z"6=6_! 3 L! 2 ;3!¾1x !¾1±v¦©Z=!Wz1x.1±¡eµ!|º1Tv!2Ë1JL<-  -P"}B@- "!Ô,
Û±À!tÜ
« 9  ¿]!±À"É¢¿¡1(t-Û6rsÜ
« 10  ¿]!6rs"r 4  1,²r 3  31 °0-f&

Û6 ¤Q$S5®Ü« 11  ¿]!6 ¤Q$S5®":¹6 >{6rsÐfN¦©Z=!W
z1xv ¾Z=!m¾1±36=
6_! 3 L!Þ;3!¾1x.
#+
2. NÖ!¾1x6 ¤Q$S5®"
u 6rsÐfv 3 ;I±¡eµK.#+
3. «ÝÖ!¾1x6 ¤Q$S5®!d"6=!i'-/*,.1¸Ç) ±¡eµK.#+Û6bYQ$S®Ü« 12  ¿]!6bYS®Q$¿¡
Ï":¹6 6rs°4vÈ>{
6!1±36=!¾1xv
¦©Z=Q$ ¾Z=bY.#+
2. NÖ!¾1x6bYS®Q$¿¡Ï"u 6rs°4v 3 ;I±¡eµK.#+ÛSpØ!JLÜ
« 13  ¿]!S®pØ "
6= -FZ!¾1x!FËP"2ËÛ´OÜ
« 10  6"lÓ¸!i'-/*,
O`¸!<-2. 6"¿]!Á¡ *$= +$O`¸!1-3. 6 *$6"7!´1H -
 
4.
¾Z" ¾Z=1{6=!¼[­&"6=nz1Ä%-ÛbÍÜ« 11  6*$6"bÍ-

« 3 ª ¦©ZkZ¦©Z*$Ú[Û¦©Z *$kZ¦©ZÜ« 12  ¿]¦©Z=i'-!¦©Z*$kZ¦©Z1 
2. ¦©Z *$kZ¦©Z"6=!Wz1x
h½³! *,.1g\-
3. ¦©Z *$kZ¦©Z"6=!i'-/*,¿]!¥-»¦©-4. ¦©Z *$kZ¦©Z!<"U4 r-ÛÚ[Ü« 13  ¿]"Ú[1g\-  -
2. Ú[!g\"6=!¾1±.#+
3. Ú["6=Kqz1Ä%- -«ßª =¾
Û¨ÙÜTCER Newsletter No.29

 5 

March 2006

1[z¡-@/J"4|ef-£*!.

 14 { ; "4; V;+$V;.
2. 4;"¨d4;+$u4;.
3. V;"`=V;+$uV;
.

º>@¬»
 14 { z¡X"¢¬!>@1+.
"!4|ef!L@¸12².>@¬¦x¯ 1 ey!*!1³ V;! ºpµ»
Rm1ji V;!a 124;  15 { ; "84 /1pµ.
4Ys! 3 F! 2 92! 1j
 2. 84"{`.\Q!&´u;|^!o1M .*!.
1pµ.  .
3. 4;! ­"84 /.
 4  hVK$ V
4.  V;! ­"!«f V;/1`).º¹K$`s»5. V;! ­"!«fV;/1`
 15 { z¡X!hV1 ).(1) 4 5 692 10 69C(2) 4 2 6º®?»2. 4!1 61841 61848  16 { ¨d4;"4|ef3G 2 w9C.+$4|ef3i 2 w9C// 1 W/1

®?.
ºª:»
2. u4;"2 S92!4+- 
 16 { 4K$4"V;!Rm1j /1®?.
 V;ª:.
3.  V;"e 1 W/1®?.
2. 84848"4;4
4. `=V;"4|ef3G 2 w9C+$!5ª+-`).
4|ef3i 2 w9C// 1 W/1®?
3. 4K$4"5B .  
.
5. uV;"4; k) 'ºH»"©Is!V+-  /1
 17 { 4"4;1}n|H!Z1
®?.
`.
2. 84"z¡X18|H1 .
º}n»3. 848"841<|H1q  17 { 4;"4 V;" VV
844r . J"84 ~;"V1*}n.
 "!H18.
2. 4+$4"V;Ecm1§
4. 4"  59 {!H1
%.  .º:x» 18 { hV!:x"2 e.D:
1_
2. ~J"]V+-ª:/hV!:x"G·zt!`0,G:J"7!:!:x¯.3. hV"¥:J":x3!i*i: b:.'"!H10 /#,º:»
 19 { hV !PO!/g.
"V;!Rm1j4;K$ V;
//4K$ V!Ys! 3 F! 2
92! 1jghV1:. º`¤s» 18 { 4;"A4!Ec+-n.
2. 4;! 4"A4!Rm+n.
3. V;"}n!©Is!Ec+-n.V;! 4"Ec}n!©Is1*
/1.NTRs! " ­/1.
4. ; ~c.4'"V"v¶+4°ml1.  .*!
!\QGP·!Ec'" T!sU(*!
.º± 4·»
 19 { 4;±

%

4·"

!-

 6 

TCER Newsletter No.29

3(1) Å&Ò&.¸S&eº$g #"¼
.143" (2) ¸S8&µSÌW&A|`3$*6#º 3"¼.143" 
2. PÔ®Ù[&o$02D3i\'{ |`$1 .É¨3""/$D&Á7º¢>EV) Á`E:)$©«`E$  {|`$z&E79 #4(#1#
×ÈDØ® 20  ÇD0"3|`'Ó$02&7Âd$tL#4(#1#
×hÍØ® 21  |`'¡hÍ"3× Á`Ø
® 22  Âd$ Á` 10 @C8 15 @CJ7³
2.
Á`'©«`E&]7~ ¢>E&Á$f B»¢> lc3
3. ® 18 ® 19 V)® 20 &o' Á`$¥3&i\$  ® 18 ;Û|`Ü"3&'Û Á`Ü"® 19 ;Û|`Ü"
3&'Û Á`Ü"¢>EV) Á`E"
3&'¢>E"44¢>V) Á`"3&'¢>"® 20 ;Û|`Ü"3&'Û Á`Ü"½- 3/&"3
×ID&ªØ® 23  |`V)#Á`'?$I%3"!

® 5 ­ ©«`q`©«`V)Öa

March 2006

"3(1) >¦ 0)X=¯(2) >h_ 0)X¯(3) rÑº&j 0)#1)$GÂ¤&KM(4) &ArÑº!o.3>Ô
(5) &A¢> "¼.3>Ô
(6) PÔ® 1 [02® 3 [,!$3>Ô$'©«`E&]7~#4(#1#
(7) rÑº&j'<Snx&¼Z7Y#
4(#1#
×Á>ÎØ
® 20  EÁ&Á>&±Ë&Õ'Á>Î$ÆÁÏ&+ s#"/Lu· 1 ^ ´^
,'U#4(#1#
® 5 ­ Ä¤

0)E

×Ø
® 21  Âd&Ä¤'&/&02#3
(1) Âd ¬&{N$ 3Ä¤(2) Âd&>$FÄ¤(3) Âd&Ä¤02£3p(4) rÑÂ¤(5) &AXH
×TMØ® 22  Âd&Ä¤'fÂ¤ 0)ÉvÂ¤"3
(1) fÂ¤'&" 2"3(2) P® 1 [$3Ä¤(3) fÂ¤"o14rÑÂ¤(4) ¢>E&Á7± fÂ¤$²2H414
Â¤(5) fÂ¤'¢>E&]7~}<Snx&¼7Y#4(KM3" L#(6) ÉvÂ¤'fÂ¤Ck&Â¤"47±Ã$ 3/&"3

×©«`V)q`©«`Ø® 24  Âd$©«`E!o.3&©«`V)q`©«`7³
2. ©«`V)q`©«`'¢>E&]7~ 
mÀ·&; 147lc3
3. ©«`V)q`©«`'¢>E&o.3"5$02Âd&§"3¾©«$3
×>wyØ
4. ©«`V)q`©«`&D'4 w"3® 23  Âd&>wy'w 4  1 
w 3  31 ,!"3
×ÖaØ® 25  Âd$ÖaÙ@CJ7³" !
3
2. Öa'Âd$QR&·& 1¢>E&¹$02B»¢> lc3
3. Öa'Âd&Êb$Ð B»¢>&¿a$1¶®Ú­ ÑO
×°OØ® 24  &rÑº$#°O'¢>E
47o.3



TCER Newsletter No.29

 7 

March 2006

B4y2U_-"+
4.  18 m¢ 6k¡RKv{+ 6  y27~J7C!

J7y27o`¡
 26 m lNy27- 
2. y27y2-&o`+
3. 2y27=V_-"++

y27p¡ 27 m y27T?R%+&#lNL+2-t+y279C!E¡ 28 m y27Wy27C!hy27+2. Wy272nXZ1@ 2 j5;C!2n
XZ1\ 2 j5;,, 1 M,-9+
3. hy27qHG, [+PI9+(1) y27 ]% (2) y2xOe 3 > 1 5.)7|
+2-s  (3) 2:J)7|+2-s  (4) @ 3 Gc +PI#4y2 w] +% 
4. y274y2 b+
5. y27bghC!Pa/!7|
+2C!;S-i-&7
g 7 g@$} , )2^-+PI)%y27R%fu(*E+ *6.  3  2 GB 3 GR(*s  4y2'y27-b, )
y27¡ 29 m y274y2 ,+@m 3  3 GR(*s 
PIhy27-9 =
Vy23(*-R%+
y27ReC!tfu¡
 30 m y27y2xOe 3 > 2 5.=r8z¡
 25 m lN dPIr8z0A
QYF-D ,-<>+ 8 

TCER Newsletter No.29

V.&\w+
2. p050 T=R%+PF. ";Vp0@`.&mEI
G` m+ -(+3. p05x 28 fx 5 R(*)
%t,0#m+  +0 {Z.+&;Vp0 3 < 2 3/m PF *4, m! 0 n=>S8.d+
p0W 0mj.7+  p05cmy
x 31 f '$.Xpr%p05;Vp0)%t,0cB2p1.&mj.7+ 
 +
2. ?2p12pj.+c.5_; ,)
3. x 1 R(*mj.7+p0?
fx 1 C x 2 Rq;V
&#
p050
x 32 f p050k0.0.6\ ,)
(1) abC P](2) p0oO`(3) ;Vp0`C lHcm~C
mQ4~.J$
(4) m0
(5) 0zh(6) 0}H14+0
2. 0C ;Vp0)p054,0}H1 2 13/}H^A ,)
uvK5i\x 33 f eNuvK5.| 
2. uvK5uvK.&i\+
3. p0C 0uvK5;V[.!
+   +
uvK5jx 34 f uvK5 T=R%+&"K5U,+eN0gM+0p05LY
UB[.:s+uvK59CDyMarch 2006

TCER Newsletter No.29

March 2006

y 35 e uwI6 P7uwI6B"auwI
6+
2. P7uwI6 2fTUz1? 2 c5;B"2
fTUz1W 2 c5;,, 1 L,.8+
3. auwI6 iED,V+OF8+
(1) p26 X% (2) uwIoN_@_)6s+2
.vj  (3) 29I)6s+2.vj  (4) ? 3 D^ +OF#4p2 nX +% 
4. uwI6 4p2 ]+
5. y 28 ey 5 y 31 eB"y 32 eP 
uwI6mq+OF
,)P0p26+ uwI6p2+ uwI$b+&+
6. y 3 y 2 DA yDP(*j 
4p2 'uwI6.]
 ,!)
uwI6y 36 e uwI6 4p2 ,+?ey 3 y 3 DP(*jOFauwI6.8<SuwI3(*.P%+
uwI6P_B"k`l
y 37 e uwI6 uwIoN_@_<S.&\x+
2. uwI62 <SuwI@_.&kCHG_k+-(+
3. uwI6 y 28 ey 5 P(*)
%t,2$k+ +2 |Z.+&<S
uwI=5/k OF *
I6g\y 38 e dMI6.} 
2. I6 I.&g\+
I6h~
y 39 e I6 Q>P%+&
#uwI6R.{dM2fK+2p26 JY
RA [.:r+ 9  10 TCER Newsletter No.29

 I1[~} 40 fI10t+ [%
2. I1;S I,#%
3. } 28 f} 5 } 30 f} 1 } 31 f@}
32 fO I1rv%
LF&$O)t+1%
 I1t+% I c
%"%
} 7 | PMa`~PMa} 41 f Py{I1GY'WVI1Q'(t+1 %9I
n'W qugN C'B  &
Ma%  `} 42 f eJmp} 68 f} 1 } 2 D $}4 DOK `%
2. mp} 68 f} 1 } 2 DOK `
%LFy{I1GY'WV I1Q
'(t+1 %9In'W 
qugNC'B  &$k5u:<} 43 f eJ `d%k5uy{I1GY'WV I1Q'(t+1 %9In'W qugN
C'B eJ2x'd%.
p-?J4P%"%
} 8 | =
6/ b@T} 44 f eJ*%+>Zmp} 51fO%" iED] %b'
6 &$
(1) P
(2) t+@+lH3Z@wj'b(3) _UC C~'X%+g'
LFC C~'B %' %b(4) PO!%h+%b(5) u@7so'zb(6) A8^;%T@ \b+>R
} 45 f eJ+>':t%!+>R'

March 2006

TCER Newsletter No.29

 11 

March 2006

)#
2. KTh46"KTh®=)#
3. KTh®6"KO5Xo=m0"N¤K'a[-:#3%"KTh®=K5I&9a[-:*2'1(:#µeyS¶
 46  *5g²¡5ey4°,0n3K³6"KO5¦=m0"N¤K'R4d8:#²Sµir¸ºj¸¸~¹z¶*5_}d6"`5¥W5$/.z&
9y¡-:#
¹  O jk5  O6pq^`b40¡<;7,.· ~5A?@CFD=v¨,7-·    jk6{`b1¯P+;:Jd1-#

z|» j  ~  zµ¬¶
\Z»V µG´Y»Ul ¼ `bb«¶!

]s»pq^`b   xf
z|» j  ~zµ¬¶Ul ¼ \Z»  µ ¶´Y»!

]s»pq^`b   xf
z|» j  ~  zµ¬¶ Ul ¼ \Z» rµpq^`bb«¶´Y»           !
]s»pq^`b   xf
z|» j  ~  zµ¬¶ Ul ¼ \Z»M cLªµzwu§­¡¶´Y»±£t¢©»>EFBDH5Qt¢©!

]s»pq^`b   xf
z|» j  ~  zµ¬¶ Ul ¼  12 TCER Newsletter No.29

March 2006-,[mWO <*MkAGc_l
g+m 
.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D  Akbl

)9 n-,[m^F `MkAGc_lg+m  
.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D  Akbl )9 n-,[m]H f6Mk;=Z/04YN4al
g+m  
  



.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D  Akbl

)9 n-,[mKO EMk0e8V04YN4al
g + m          
.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D
-,[m

Akbl

)9 n#&% i2Mk;=Z/04YN4al

g+m 
.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D  Akbl )9mn m-,[m1O (<MkR>04YN4al
g+m  
.?m;=Z/04X  J\  P@5ACm 7  D  Akbl )9mn m-,[m  Mkl
g+m    

.?m;=Z/04Ih 
ACm 7  D  Akbl

)9mn m-,[mjL 3BMkI'04Ud:-S4QT!$"&lTCER Newsletter No.29

 13 

March 2006

»oÂ
vÂ¤wxz ¦  {Â ~    ½¾

igÂÃÂup¥Â ½ ¾»oÂ    
vÂ¤wxz¦  {Á¿N]UJ[]Qup½À ¾"K PK =± ­ j #~="KPK=±­j#> ~   <_xz8¶b.G5

 q  N]UJ[]Q=eRTOX]907¶b.G5!  N]UJ[]Q=> KPKy}
«r=¥<CF® r¸´§ (C?4=·²d³=cnI|.3F-98$F!G>

¢r



ºr

l

¼

ar<(%7-G@88¨67+5_²=N]UJ[]Q=I°@'5B=8$E KPK±­j=KPKst<(,Fr¸£=f9%&)D -=N]UJ[]QI±174=I¹x.3F-9<C67 CE|05
(C?¡©I¨&-9IA/07%F!SLZx)D>zµ=  *kh

2F;: `mr)D  oI¯'F£z¥*kh0 KPKst<(,F®^r¸´§f9%&)D;¬ª*¨HG5!
 RTOX]=V\MYW
July 30, Saturday
Session C-1:

Room 1

Asian Crisis I
Sponsored by Tokyo Center of Economic Research (TCER)
Chair: Yin-Wong Cheung (UC, Santa Cruz)
Paper 1: Michael Alexeev (Indiana University) "The Korean Financial Crisis and the Soft Budget Constraint"
Paper 2: Hung-Jen Wang (Academia Sinica) "Financial Crisis and the Effects on Bank Credits – Evidence
from Taiwan"
Paper 3: Chander Kant (Seton Hall University) "East Asian Crisis and Capital Flight"
July 31, Sunday
Session E-1:
Asian Crisis II
Sponsored by Tokyo Center of Economic Research (TCER)
Chair: Chang Jae Lee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

Room 1 14 TCER Newsletter No.29

March 2006

Paper 1: Etsuro Shioji (Yokohama National University) "Basket Pegs for East Asia? A New OpenMacroeconomics Perspective"
Paper 2: Byung-Joo Lee (University of Notre Dame) "Economic Fundamentals on the Exchange Rates underDifferent Exchange Rate Regimes: Recent Experiences from the Korean exchange Rate
Regime Change"
Paper 3: Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University) and Junko Shimizu (Hitotsubashi University) "A Deviation
Measurement for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia"ÿĂ Ā     o T wW xj I vx [ ª  ½  ¹ÿĀ9āØ

    oTwWxjIvx[Gā ÿÂ¡¹ÀÛÌûÔ×]x_zĀ65āñ5÷,0Òä*FEç·;9BDā¾ìÿñ¡Āāaqzu[ymtPQÿù¡ĀāÄ·ÿÂ¡Ā%~68DāÒäç·GïH1ª6;Ñ8Dāczo;āoTw:¢Ã{ß6,āBDÚ$!czo;'8$20%āA;D¶:ç·%}à

È6õãã6!"ā))¶ª:¹ÀÛÌ:¼:±ÅG³24!

0/:>$:dibT;ā»Ê®Îçā²­Í¤9ý,0£ã871208#ā):W
xjIvx[:Ú;ā    $C`Mxwze5&Eÿă Ā W xj I vx [Àª«: ½

¹ ¹Â¡ÛÌ¡Ô×ÖÆ5÷PzRfLXzĄáúµÕ

Ð°{º¦üwz\Ā;ûôâ:èþGD|(0ûôâY[cp:JzSc
Taqz;¹ÀJZJÉ§/,4Ù9#!4ö¿Ó9¼@ò8ÛÌþ:{35E:ÛÌÇî;*?+?8¯5Ñ824!E%¬Á:ûôâY[cp:©8%}ð5

206!"5;í5

EÉ§5;¸9ííë6,4:rzw%æÏ,0,$,8%CJZJ5;7:B"8ûôâY[cp:«G-=&5ÛÌ¡Þ:ø5@&8¯:¨%

E$93!4

D!?1¯:¯G4!8!):B"8þ¯é9024ûôâ:èþGÜÓ9Ã-E)6GÓ9ÙÉ§<¹À$C  À:Ô×ç·%´*FåêGã20Þ; OxVuÿ ªgzluÛÌ¡Āevz^xh]xcK MNL[izVu nuc[C!.F@):ó5:dbk
Ts[:Ô×Þ5D¯ÝË!êç%¥÷*F0

kw Us pDecember 9[Session 1]

9:30-12:00, Chair, Takatoshi ITO

OGAWA, Eiji (Hitotsubashi University) and SHIMIZU, Junko (Hitotsubashi University)“AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation
with Effective Exchange Rates"
Discussants: Mark SPIEGEL, Taizo MOTONISHI

TCER Newsletter No.29

 15 

March 2006

SHIOJI, Etsuro, (Yokohama National University)"Basket Pegs for East Asia? A New Open Macroeconomics Perspective"
Discussants: Kentaro IWATSUBOLUNCH (12:00-13:30), Luncheon Speech, Robert Engel[Session 2]

14:00 – 17:30, Chair, Andrew Rose

WEI, Shang-Jin (IMF and NBER)“Currency Blocs and International Lending”
Discussants: Elias PAPAIOANNOU, Yuko HASHIMOTO
ITO, Takatoshi (University of Tokyo, TCER, and NBER) and HASHIMOTO, Yuko (Toyo University),“Intra-day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from theElectronic Broking System”
Discussants: Robert ENGEL, Paolo PESENTIFUKUDA, Shin-ichi (University of Tokyo) and ONO, Masanori"On the Determinants of Export Prices: History vs. Expectations"
Discussants: Kiyotaka SATO, Andrew ROSE
December 10[Session 3]

9:00-12:30, Chair, Andrew RosePESENTI, Paolo (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR and NBER), Doug Laxton and Papa N'Diaye(International Monetary Fund)“Structural reforms and monetary rules: a scenario analysis for Japan",
Discussants: Tsutomu WATANABE, Kazuo UEDAPORTES, Richard, (London Business School, and CEPR)“The dollar, the euro, and financial markets”
Discussants: Takatoshi ITO, Takeo HOSHI
DRAZEN, Alan (University of Maryland, Tel Aviv University and NBER)“Mixed Signals in Interest Rate Intervention”
Discussants: Shigenori SHIRATSUKA, Shinichi FUKUDA[Session 4]

13:30-15:30, Chair, Takeo HOSHISPIEGEL, Mark (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Takeshi Kobayashi and Nobuyoshi Yamori“"Quantitative easing at the zero bound: Evidence from Japanese bank equity values."
Discussants: Mitsuhiro FUKAO, Naohiko BABA
ROSE, Andrew (UC Berkeley, CEPR and NBER)“Size Really Doesn’t Matter”
Discussants: Etsuro SHIOJI, Allan DRAZENEG F #   E 7B + $  " $ F-(9=:'8%!
D#;A 

<C@E23>)*,F&1./.
#9=:,6045=:,?

 16 TCER Newsletter No.29

0ÍíAêĉ&.éÑ3

March 2006#>Í4=»A¶=r©4¼ÁéÑ4*84´ÿAÝ(0'>94/>
ÁZdMGIV/5Th\$03éÑ4Ă0Íg214Ă0/[CAw=(?)?4$Ă4~þ4!<Ôs4@"3#>Í¤4·ċ4»­:(4Č

2

1A~ÄgÇò&.>åiÁu÷5¡® ¢ ¿¼g¼× ¢ ¿ ¼¼3

3.ăz%?*2åÁu÷5¡®

Ù%?.>åiÁu÷4ZdJa^4è5tk40=/>


u÷ Zd J a^ Đ ãĐ ~òõĐ ~¿  ¼čĎ 
å  OS L` e      ¥ ā  Ï  ë ąüÎĆ|×úyyÍ òõí Ći   ÀÃÞ®×ÃËû0ćéÑÍ òõí Ãj¸åOS L `e      ¥ ā  ï ÂĆ ¡    Ãj¸¼Á4äobhbÛþóäo0äoÍ       òõí Á½ Đ   ÏëÃÌ£Å¦¼ĀÍ0Āð4¤¿  ¼č¼Ď      å  OS L` e      ¥ ā  | ×ú   ïÂĆ¡   à°ñ4Í0¤Á½¼Á4à°ñ¸æÔÓ0ôČòõí ÞpßĐ  ÞpßÐùíÁv4¹î·ċ¹îWFR_hAnª0&.|s¹î·ċ4Í0éÑđì¹îAnª3đòõí ÀÃÞ®    å O SL `e       ¥ā  | s Đ   ÊëĈĆiĊÖ4Í0éÑ  òõí ąüÎĆčď Ď  ] I dK eY B ce Nr¢¤  ]IdKeYBceN5å  UDOeVaaEPhL`eKeYBceN
6qý  lç {/  ¿  ¼Í¸

éÑ~Ä4EeQhYGEN³;

4§®ZdJa^0}ăz4§

føH_eXN3.ð@?* x¢ÉKeYBceN5²¨öÒ0±áõº!<È®%?* ±áõº/5]IdéÑ4ÕõÚCZdhR3Ą'>õºAnª3¬Ö~þ4õº9ĉ7=  ¾  ~!<  ¾  ~7/0©  ¾!<  ¾7/(?)?  -4mð'>OSL`e3.

 Á4õº"%?*  7* ¾  ~!<¾  ~7/ßØ¹µčĎ ¾  ~!</Æp«¹µčqýéÑÜâ¯Ď3(?)?²¨öÒAð,.*+*

¾  ~7

TCER Newsletter No.29

 17 

March 2006

 @=k  FD!#(,ze
*,



<

NM;Ume,%

 &+)'PG&+)'72&+ ) ' PG
3X`OfgLNR}R oQ9]NR}R */-QfgLN
R}R ?>5NR}h Bq5NR}h nxiNR
}R b\xiNR}R&+ ) '
Session A: Welfare Economics 9:30 am - 11:30 am"¡KA0yNR6l8R
.KA0yNR6l8R

On the Possibility of Continuous, Paretian and Egalitarian Evaluation of Infinite Utility Streams (joint with
Chiaki Hara, Kotaro Suzumura, and Youngsheng Xu).wT00sNR}R

Do Irrelevant Commodities Matter? (joint with Marc Fleurbaey).E?u0sNR}h

On Initial Conferment of Individual Rights (joint with Kotaro Suzumura).I4r{_

NRHR

Fair Waste Pricing: An axiomatic Analysis to the NIMBY Problem

Session B: Bounded Rationality 9:30 am - 11:00 am"¡\0yNRNR.QSyNR8^R

$'dJ^R

Inductive Game Theory: Transition from the Social Situation to Personal Views (joint with J. J. Kline).\0yNRNR

$'dJ^R



Revision of Beliefs with Perceived Experiences in Info-memory Protocols.n9YNR~RkRjVContentwise Complexity of Inferences in Epistemic Logics of Shallow Depths (joint with Mamoru Kaneko)Session C: Equilibrium and Dynamics 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm"Bq5NR}h.Wp?[CfcNRNR

Endogenous Price Leadership and Technological Differences (joint with Makoto Yano).|v[NR}RA Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Centralized Auction Markets (joint with Kazuya Kamiya).41taZ:NROn the Global Dynamic Effects of Parameters.Olivier TercieuxCentER, Tilburg University 18 TCER Newsletter No.29

March 2006

Iterated Potential and Robustness of Equilibria (joint with Daisuke Oyama)Session D: Allocation and Matching 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm
OGEĎ½ąuĆeç¶ąÇôýÜÈÒÙÕĆ
Two-Sided Search, Price Setting, and the Willingness to TradeeChih ChangąNational Tsing Hua UniversityĆ
Reduced Game and Converse Consistency (joint with Cheng-Cheng Hu)er¿äąÚÆKLQ]¬ÒÙÕĆ
Effects of Quality Changes in Rental Housing Markets³¤ í É    

eÔÎąĆ
Sequential Search by Consumers and Industrial Organization: Information
Intermediaries and Concentration of Retail Stores³¤ í É    

eÁl§ąmöÜÈÒÙ±Ć
JcL[PSéĎ°À2ëāąč Ć ~  ¡6 º ·4X`1ûx)A qêÊkqÊ&~*-!YGaTLNFcą

 Ć2  5s5i

jÏ55ÒÙÃü5qê 5 LNPY&{*-!Ä5Č/5|÷4/#0ÒÙÃü4$'@ÒÙ°ÀeÒÙü¦&Ðê)Ao¥5ÒÙ}4/#0îì&3)A-!Č/5|÷26Ä5ò?1"@!ąĉĆË

ÌªeFWdGfK_ceÜÈ°ùąĊĆyenÑï¼e¶æàeÖÅ

ú5āąăĄ

ðå

ø

v¢tþ

&Ðè*0#@  C ë×ĆąČĆ,5p!:-ąċĆzÑõh w=?



ZfL5ßĀs5i4á#0õ%>5²Ø4

¨+@£4µ+@25EFRE&´Ó)A-51

 2*0}5Í®&"@2ê¸*-!


ßĀ¥

 ¡

5V^fLbNfC$ñ?#-*:+Ĉ  ¡;89ÛB?

»%2©#:+!M\Uf IcYDbcL5C(43.0 ¾¡5(8.2g«5¹
ã43A7

1+!

Newsletter 4ü+@(®<(¯­6ćqêÊkÂâÿ
:-6ÞÊk HbfdDĂ takakofg@econ.keio.ac.jp :1(óÝi)#Ĉ#