Publisher’s Note

The Assumption of Natural Disasters &How to Prepare for ThemBy Kazumasa Kusaka
Wringing tears from our sleeves,
did we not pledge never to part,not even if the waves engulfed
the Mount of Forever-Green Pines?
What caused such a change of heart?

(From the anthology “One Hundred Poets, One Poem Each”,
translated by Peter MacMillan)

In this poem by Motosuke Kiyohara composed during theHeian Period in the 10th century, the memory of the Jogan
Earthquake of 869 in the Tohoku region was evoked in reference
to the long-standing belief that the waves would never go beyond
the cliffs.
Eight years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake
on March 11, 2011 and subsequent tsunami that caused
unprecedented destruction in Tohoku, claiming the lives of18,000 people. Since then, public awareness of natural disasters
has increased, and storms, torrential rains and flooding caused bytyphoons over the past few years that hit Kyushu, Hiroshima,
Tokyo and Tohoku, claiming many lives and destroying local
communities, have been major news stories. The Great East
Japan Earthquake prompted the idea that such a disaster wasbeyond the scope of assumption. The claim was that an event ofsuch magnitude occurred only once in a millennium. Since then,the several natural disasters of the last few years have invited thesame claim – that they were events occurring only once in acentury or two. But is this explanation legitimate?
There is a well-known expression that “Disaster strikes when
we least expect it.” This raises an alarm about the short memoryof human beings and human society and institutions. However, asthe poem records, the Jogan Earthquake and tsunami changed
that region to something similar to the ocean. And in 1896, theMeiji-Sanriku Great Tsunami claimed 22,000 lives. The previousTohoku disaster before the Great East Japan Earthquake was the1933 Showa-Sanriku Great Tsunami, in which only four people
survived out of a community of several thousand. The height of
the tsunami at that time reached 38 meters above sea level. The
survivors built a memorial stele which bears the inscription:
A home built high is a relief for children.
Remember the disastrous giant tsunami.
Do not build homes below here.
It was only eight years ago that this tsunami memorial in theheart of the mountains came to be remembered in the broaderregion.
Catastrophes have come down to us throughout history in theform of myths and folk tales. Analysis of recent disasters
indicates that areas where people have lived for several hundredhttps://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

years are less susceptible, while newly developed areas where,with some reason, villagers had not resided tend to be hit withmudslides, or places with names related to water located inlowlands have soft ground susceptible to earthquakes andliquefaction. This shortness of memory is not limited to Japan but
is common in countries with continuing urbanization andexpanding residential areas. Accordingly, the memories of
traditional communities often fail to come down to the currentgeneration.
The good news is technological innovation. Lost memory canbe complemented by AI-assisted flood forecast models, satellite
observation and analysis of water immersion areas. Rapidly
progressing hazard maps based on these scientific analyses will
become modern versions of mythology. How to utilize our newly
acquired knowledge and findings in investment and managementof smart infrastructure is now a policy issue. In addition to theprovision of hardware, how to communicate the knowledge andemergency information promptly to residents to enable them toact is the real challenge.
Attributing the increasing frequency of natural disasters to
global warming issues has served to accelerate mitigation efforts.
Ironically, the major contributing factors to the economic damage
caused by hurricanes are the increase in wealth and populations,i.e. urbanization, according to a European reinsurance company
analysis of natural events and damage over the last 100 years. But
this alarm from the environmental perspective has brought asignificant by-product, as national and local governments are now
enhancing their risk reduction efforts in city planning andcapacity building.
A tail risk is an event with only a small probability of
happening but with severe critical consequences. The question is
how to prepare for such an unlikely event. Will taxpayers be
convinced to invest huge financial resources in infrastructure inthinly populated regions and keep paying the maintenance costs?
The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, which
originated off the coast of Sumatra, took 220,000 lives. Forecastsand warnings had not been given to neighboring countries, which
led to further destruction. In 2015, World Tsunami Awareness
Day was created by the United Nations, and in 2019 it focused on
reducing disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruptionof basic services. This is an effort in which the experiences ofJapan, Indonesia and other countries can be shared in order tocreate safer areas to live.
Kazumasa Kusaka is chairman and CEO of the Japan Economic Foundation(JEF), as well as being a professor of public policy at the University of Tokyo. He
previously served as special advisor to the prime minister on global warming
after having been vice minister for international affairs at the Ministry ofEconomy, Trade and Industry.
Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 20201