Special Topics • Partnership Between Africa & Japan • 1Achieving Geopolitical Stability & Enhanced
Growth Potential in Africa: Focus on TICAD
VII’s Strategic Role & the Indo-Pacific Initiative
AuthorHerinjatovo Aimé Ramiarison

By Herinjatovo Aimé Ramiarison
Overview of Current Geopolitical Risks
Today’s G-Zero situation, where no single country or bloc ofcountries has overall political and economic leverage, has resulted inintensified conflicts on the international stage (policy coordination,
financial regulation, trade, climate, etc.) as large economies havepreferred to pay more attention to domestic affairs while gradually
renouncing international leadership. As a result, according to areport published by Eurasia Group (After the G-Zero: Overcoming
Fragmentation by Ian Bremmer, 2016), the world is falling into an eraof “new normal” economics. It is a situation of durably sluggish
economic growth, not only in the traditional major economic powers,
whose dominating position has been challenged by the BRICS
nations, but also in China and emerging countries. For the latter, themain drivers, namely China’s growth and high commodity prices, areweakening. The “new normal” economics is in turn accompanied by
growing political instability and dissatisfaction among the
population. In fact, economic crises are becoming more frequent,and vulnerability factors such as income inequality, poor governanceand poor institutions, ethnic tensions and low provision of social
goods are on the rise.
This expression of discontent has developed rapidly, especiallysince the 2008 financial crisis, while populist movements haveincreasingly challenged leaders and elites in many parts of the globe.
Examples among others are the anti-austerity marches and antimigration campaigns in Europe, the Arab Spring revolution, and themass protests in South American, Asian and African countries. The
Economist Intelligence Unit estimated that the risk of social unrest ishigh or very high in 65 countries out of 150 (“Protesting predictions”,
The Economist, December 2013).
Consequently, the world would undergo continuous dramaticchanges fuelled by a new form of geopolitical risk as anti-status quo(anti-elitism, anti-establishment) sentiments and a sense of injusticeintensify and become more globalized. Such a situation is clearing
the way for the rise of fringe figures and parties (Chart 1). Politics isincreasingly more radicalized, while demand for decentralization andsecession is becoming more and more pressing. As the risks are
more contagious, the world is thus heading to a “new normal” era
governed by new kinds of conflict.
Even though Africa has experienced better economic performance(relatively higher growth since the late 2000s, improved governance,
fast-growing middle class and dynamic economies), anti-status quo
https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

movements are expected to intensify, thereby exacerbating
geopolitical risks and threatening the dynamism of global prosperity
and global peace. Consequently, politically unstable Africa is of prime
concern for the future of the world. It is within these contexts that
this article will discuss on the one hand the urgent necessity ofstabilizing Africa, and on the other hand, how the TICAD VII could
contribute to the promotion of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)
as a means to achieve this stabilization and to create a virtuous circle
of economic prosperity and global peace.

Africa’s Stabilization “All or Nothing Game”
for Global Prosperity
African countries and their international partners have madetremendous efforts to develop the region. Recent achievement interms of economic growth is qualified as unprecedented by the
Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). According to the ECA(African Social Development Index: Measuring Human Exclusion for
Structural Transformation, North Africa Report, Addis Ababa, 2016),“Growth on the continent has averaged 5 per cent yearly, with somecountries posting 7 to 11 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product(GDP) in recent years.” However, political instability fuelled by antistatus quo movements is expected to grow for three main reasons.
First, the current regional economic dynamism is threatened by
growing terror attacks as well as by the strong presence of

CHART 1

Rise of fringe parties in Europe

Source: Ian Bremmer, After the G-Zero: Overcoming Fragmentation, Eurasia Group, London,
2016

Japan SPOTLIGHT • September / October 201925

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CHART 2

Determinants of social exclusion

CHART 3

Number of fragile states per income
group
30
25

Low income

20
15

Middle income

1050

Source: African Social Development Index: Measuring Human Exclusion for Structural
Transformation, North Africa Report (ECA 2016)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

*Countries are considered fragile if Fragile State Index score is in the “Alert” range, the most vulnerable
category

Source: Ian Bremmer, After the G-Zero: Overcoming Fragmentation, Eurasia Group, London,
2016

vulnerability factors such as decades-long deep poverty, low intraAfrican trade, wide income inequality, injustice, insecurity, growing
youth unemployment, corruption and poor institutions, and a highindex of fragility. Second, dissatisfaction toward the “bad guys”(autocratic regimes and their rich political and business elites) is on
the rise, as in Algeria and Sudan recently. Third, even in the so-called“democratic regimes”, policy failures have led to social exclusion,
meaning a lack of social and economic opportunities (Chart 2), andmaking even higher the risk of political instability.
To illustrate, according to the World Bank (Youth Employment in
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014), more than half of the African population
are under 25 years old, while the youth population (aged between 15
and 24) is growing rapidly and could reach 362 million by 2050. Only
less than 25% of Africa’s youth are expected to find productive
employment by 2024. So, instead of realizing a “demographic
dividend”, Africa is more likely to experience radicalization of youth
and more violence.
In turn, politically unstable Africa has a real potential to threaten
the dynamism of global prosperity and global peace for the following
reasons.
First, Africa itself is more likely to fall into a vicious circle ofpolitical instability, low growth and rising social discontent. Indeed,
political instability would impede Africa in seizing growth
opportunities as economic cooperation (investment, trade, economic
infrastructure building, etc.) on which African economies depend
heavily will be discouraged.
Second, low or negative growth in Africa would reinforce theabove-mentioned vulnerability factors and social exclusion, thereby
making the risk even higher. The continent is becoming a favorable
platform for all kinds of trafficking, the growth of extremism andradicalism, and worldwide terror attacks.
Third, political risk fuelled by growing social discontent inemerging economies is more likely to increase as many are on theedge of the “Middle-Income Trap” (“Middle-Income Traps: A
Conceptual and Empirical Survey” by Fernando Gabriel Im and David
26 Japan SPOTLIGHT • September / October 2019

Rosenblatt, Policy Research Paper 6594, World Bank, 2013).
Moreover, the number of Middle-Income countries becoming fragile
states is increasing (Chart 3). A stable Africa could offer them a great
opportunity for economic cooperation (trade and investment),
thereby helping them to reverse the situation. By the same token, apolitically unstable Africa would not make it happen and emerging
economies will be trapped in a vicious circle of low growth andpolitical instability.
Fourth, demographic structures characterized by aging
populations in advanced as well as in many emerging economies
make it difficult for these countries to sustain steady long-term
economic growth since they lack both labor (for production) anddemand (for consumption) needed for that to happen. Africa with its
rapidly growing youth can answer these needs. But if politicalinstability continues to prevail, such opportunities will be missing.
Consequently, the “new normal” economics is more likely to persist
with its adverse effects.
To sum up, the stabilization of Africa is required in order to savethe world from falling into global chaos. A politically stable andeconomically prosperous Africa would bring nothing but benefits forall. This is a kind of “all or nothing game”.

Avoiding the Danger of Rejection of Democracyin Africa
It is worth noting that in the current G-Zero situation the struggle
for influence between the United States and China is intensifying. As
regards Africa, it appears that China has gained relatively more
ascendance in the region due to the attractiveness of its economic
cooperation scheme based on its non-interference (in internalaffairs) policy, known as the “Beijing consensus”. In addition, the“Beijing consensus” comes at a time when the Western ideologicalsystem embodied in the “Washington consensus” has started losing
ground due to its failure to generate significant positive economic
and social outcomes since its inception in the 1980s, as perceived bySpecial Topics 1

the large majority of the population in Africa. In other words,
populations as well as political elites in Africa are more concerned
about what they really perceive daily, rather than what theories tellthem. It means that they are more interested in how to achieve
prosperity and improve living standards quickly than how to achieve
democracy and implement effective reforms. Therefore, China’s “OneBelt, One Road” initiative is much more welcomed in the region andis gaining momentum as it promises a fast improvement in living
standards for many Africans.
Moreover, China’s experience is widely perceived as evidence ofreal success which is not based on Western ideological values andsystems. Thus, the “Beijing consensus” is challenging the“Washington consensus” as many African leaders (as well as the
majority of the population) see it as a great opportunity fordevelopment and as a financing alternative to free themselves fromthe severe conditionality of the “Washington consensus”.
Consequently, the ideological division between the West (and its
allies) and the rest of the world is expected to widen in the future as
the Western ideological system, especially liberal democracy, is nolonger convincing, and prioritizing economic rights is gradually
taking over from prioritizing political rights.
This perception change needs to be considered cautiously because
it may constitute a new and more serious source of geopolitical risks
if it is not managed adequately. Such a situation is favoring China’s
ambitious global expansion strategy based on unconditional ODA
and investment, which is more likely to preserve the status quo in
Africa by breeding “bad guys” and enhancing their power, andincreasing fragility and polarization in African nations. If the West
continues to ignore this perception change and if nothing is done tomanage it adequately, the world may see bigger state roles (state
capitalism), increasing protectionism, fewer political rights andrestricted individual freedom in Africa. This trend toward a total
rejection of liberal democracy would necessarily result in a broken
world that will benefit no one. Therefore, it is time for the West toshow goodwill and stop abusing its dominant historic position, sothat its economic cooperation schemes with Africa should
henceforth prioritize the creation of a middle class and the promotionof trade and investment. If it does so, the outcome will necessarily
be inclusive growth, economic prosperity, more democracy andconsequently a peaceful African society. A shift in its cooperation
paradigm is henceforth needed. In this respect, the Japaneseexperience in Africa deserves special consideration.

change and the need to adjust its cooperation strategy, Japan has
gradually made a shift in its cooperation paradigm, especially since
TICAD V. The promotion of economic growth has been prioritizedover peace building, regional stability and reforms. Indeed, the latterare more likely to be achieved by economic means rather than bymilitary or humanitarian means. As opposed to economic actions,the temporary nature of the military and humanitarian actions makethem a less efficient instrument to achieve sustainable peace.
Therefore, strategies aiming at economic prosperity and inclusive
growth in the region would be more successful. For this purpose, theshift in Japan’s cooperation paradigm is first reflected in the six
pillars of TICAD V (Chart 4). Five of them concern economic
prosperity whereas “boosting economic growth” is the first priority.
Furthermore, the shift was made official in the 2015 revision of the
ODA charter. Again, the first priority was given to “quality growth”
and poverty eradication through such growth. Precisely, thedocument states that:“…in order to resolve the poverty issue in a sustainable manner, it
is essential to achieve economic growth through human resources
development, infrastructure development and establishment ofregulations and institutions as well as the growth of the private
sector enabled by the aforementioned actions….However, suchgrowth should not be merely quantitative in nature, given that someof the countries that have achieved a measure of economic growth
face challenges such as widening disparities, sustainability issues,
inadequate social development, and political and economic
instability. Rather, it should be ‘quality growth’. Such growth isinclusive in that the fruits of growth are shared within society as awhole, leaving no one behind…From this perspective, Japan will
provide assistance necessary to secure the foundations and thedriving force for economic growth. Its scope includes: thedevelopment of industrial infrastructure and industries throughimprovements in such areas as infrastructure, finance and trade andinvestment climate; sustainable cities; introduction of informationand communications technology (ICT) and high technology;
promotion of science, technology and innovation; research and
CHART 4

Pillars of TICAD V & TICAD VI

TICAD VII as a Vehicle of Stabilization in Africa
Like that of its Western allies, Japan’s cooperation strategy has
primarily focused on peace building and stability in the region, as isstated in the 2003 revised ODA charter: “Japan will give priority toassisting developing countries that make active efforts to pursue
peace, democratization, and the protection of human rights, as well
as structural reform in the economic and social spheres” (Ministry ofForeign Affairs 2003, Japan’s Official Development Assistance
Charter). However, being aware of the above-mentioned perception

Source: TICAD Report 2018: Progress and Way Forward, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Japan SPOTLIGHT • September / October 201927

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development; economic policy; vocational training and industrial
human resources development; employment creation; and thepromotion of agriculture, forestry and fisheries that includes thedevelopment of food value chains.”
More importantly, Japan’s cooperation strategy places theemphasis on recipient countries’ ownership and on assistance forgraduation. In doing so, Japan will capitalize on developing
countries’ “self-help” efforts and take advantage of its experienceand expertise.
As a consequence of this change in cooperation strategy, theinterval of holding TICAD meetings was shortened from five to three
years, while the first post-change meeting (TICAD VI) was for the
first time held in Africa (Nairobi) in August 2016. TICAD VI can bequalified as the major turning point in Japan’s cooperation strategy
with Africa for two main reasons.
First, recipient country’s economic prosperity is henceforth at theforefront of this cooperation strategy as the top priority given to“quality growth” was further stressed in the “Nairobi Declaration”.
Japan and other participating countries and organizations havechosen “promotion of structural economic transformation” as thefirst priority area, or Pillar 1, of TICAD VI. More importantly,
emphasis will be on (1) economic diversification andindustrialization, (2) the building of quality infrastructure, (3) private
sector development, and (4) human resource development. In otherwords, Japan will give priority to building the foundations of selfhelp efforts and self-reliant development in Africa. The expected
outcome would be the growth of the middle class along withinclusive growth through trade, investment and employment creation
for youth. Ultimately sustained inclusive growth prepares the groundfor more democracy and sustainable peace in Africa, thereby
curtailing geopolitical risks. So far, 53.33% of TICAD VI’s $30 billion
assistance package under public and private partnerships has been
disbursed, as of September 2018, according to the Ministry ofForeign Affairs.
Second, actions and measures to be taken within this first priority
area will at first aim at improving the business climate and enhancing
the competitiveness of African economies. In doing so, Africa will
boost its capacity to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI)
from advanced as well as from emerging economies, notably in Asia.
Intra-African and international trade will develop as well, along withthe growth of the African middle class. In this respect, TICAD VI is adouble-edged sword which allows economic prosperity in Africa
while offering economic opportunities to developed and emerging
economies, in order for the latter to cope with aging populations andescape from the “middle-income trap”. In other words, the paradigm
shift within the TICAD VI will undoubtedly play a significant role inmitigating current geopolitical risks and in paving the way towardsustainable global peace.
Recent trends in Africa’s economic performance support TICAD
VI’s potential to achieve economic prosperity in Africa, andconsequently to contribute to stability in the region. Thus, eventhough Africa is lagging far behind the rest of the world in terms of
economic and social development, many observers have noted some
28 Japan SPOTLIGHT • September / October 2019

promising achievements that indicate the continent is on the righttrack. For example, Africa has continued to sustain steady highgrowth since the last decade and it accounted for half of the world’s
fastest-growing economies in 2017. In addition, the number ofcountries which will grow by 5% and above is projected to double
between 2017 and 2023. African countries continue to improve theirbusiness climates, as 17 countries did between 2016 and 2017,
while real improvement in business enablers, such as infrastructure,technology, market size and business sophistication, has been
noticed since 2017 (The Global Competitiveness Report, World
Economic Forum, 2018). Nonetheless, the capacity of Africa toattract the FDI needed for its structural transformation is still very
low. Actions and efforts which were undertaken within the preceding
TICADs, particularly TICAD VI, need to be strengthened and pursued
in a sustainable manner in order to produce more positive outcomes,in terms of economic prosperity and regional stability. The coming
TICAD VII has great potential to achieve such a goal, for at least two
main reasons.
First, there is a guarantee that the efforts discussed above will be
continued and further strengthened within TICAD VII. In fact,
participants at the TICAD ministerial meeting on Oct. 6-7, 2018, in
Yokohama (more than 2,000 representatives from 52 Africancountries, development partners, international and regional
institutions, private companies, etc.) underscored the need forurgent policy actions to address Africa’s binding constraints togrowth, notably the lack of diversification, poor infrastructure, lack ofaccess to energy and large unemployed youth population, in order toreach the 7% GDP growth rate required for a sustainable growthpath.
Second, addressing only these challenges to economictransformation is not sufficient in order to reach a “happy marriage”
between Japan and African countries, in terms of trade andinvestment promotion, because of the huge distance between thetwo regions. Japanese and Asian investors are hampered by thisobsession of distance and are reluctant to directly invest in Africa. In
order to cope with this obstacle, TICAD VII will necessarily be theimplementation framework of Japan’s first priority policy fordevelopment cooperation. That is the promotion of a FOIP strategy
announced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during TICAD VI, andunanimously adopted by the participants in the 2018 ministerial
meeting.
In this regard, Japan will enhance “connectivity” between Asia andAfrica to promote stability and prosperity in the region as a whole(Chart 5). A solid and reliable bridge is thus needed in the IndoPacific region. In this regard, the creation of an Indian-Ocean Rim(IOR) economic zone, modelled on APEC, is crucial in order to makeit as one market and as a hub for trade, investment, and financial
activities linking Asia and Africa. The primary focus should be on
developing the IOR economies through the promotion of trade and
FDI, and the use of ODA in economic infrastructure, private sector
development, human resource development, and knowledge transfer.
In other words, the FOIP initiative is to complement and to support
those actions which have already targeted structural economic

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CHART 5FY2017 Priority policy for development cooperation

Source: Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2017 (https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000259285.pdf )transformation in Africa.

Conclusion
High political risk, rooted in the decades-long status quo in Africa,
is further exacerbated by today’s G-Zero situation, the decline ofWestern ideological systems and values which are no longer moreconvincing, and by China’s ambitious global expansion strategy
based on unconditional ODA and investment. Moreover, it is argued
that Africa poses a real threat, not only to itself but to the world.
Therefore, the stabilization of the region, which is a kind of “all or
nothing game”, is strongly needed in order to achieve global
prosperity and peace.
For that to happen, a paradigm shift is needed because the old one
will not produce effective and positive outcomes within the current
situation. The primary focus should be on inclusive growth throughthe promotion of trade and investment, employment creation, andthe development of the middle class. Africa would then be able toimprove living standards and to achieve economic prosperity, andconsequently more democracy and stability.
Following the revision of Japan’s ODA charter in 2015, TICAD VII
could contribute to this stabilization and to the creation of a virtuous
circle of economic prosperity and global peace on the basis of the
new foreign policy strategy, which is the FOIP strategy. Indeed,

TICAD VII will pursue and even strengthen TICAD VI’s priority
actions for structural economic transformation, with more emphasison building the foundations of self-help efforts and self-reliant
development in Africa. In addition, a “happy marriage” between
Japan and African countries is possible as the distance issue will nolonger be an important challenge.
Thanks to the FOIP strategy, TICAD VII will contribute to thebuilding of a “solid and reliable bridge” in order to enhance“connectivity” between Asia and Africa. Priority actions include
developing an IOR economic zone and promoting international
cooperation to fight global terrorism, piracy and various kinds oftrafficking in this zone in order to have a secured and opened IndoPacific zone for an effective “happy marriage”.

Dr. Herinjatovo Aimé Ramiarison gained his Ph.D. from Meiji University,
Japan, and is now professor of economics at the University of Antananarivo,
Madagascar.

Japan SPOTLIGHT • September / October 201929