Publisher’s Note

The Zeitgeist & Future Challenges
The “spirit of the times” – a concept mostly associated with the German philosopher Hegel –refers to an invisible agent or force dominating the characteristics of a given epoch.
By Kazumasa Kusaka
At the end of April 2019, or Heisei 31 in the Japanese era
system, Japan’s Emperor Akihito will relinquish the throne to hiseldest son, Crown Prince Naruhito. The abdication will mark theend of the Heisei Era – the name given to Emperor Akihito’s
reign, which lasted for more than 30 years. In the past, when
Japan’s era names have changed, the spirit of the public has alsochanged, and accordingly new waves in the arts, music andfashion have emerged. This phenomenon was especiallypronounced among the younger generation and women.
The term “Heisei” comes from ancient Chinese history and isintended to mean “peace in heaven and on earth”. The Heisei Era
started in 1989, the year the Cold War ended. At that time people
had hoped to receive the dividend of peace, but what we haveobserved is different. As Professor John J. Mearsheimer of theUniversity of Chicago pointed out in an article in The Atlantic
Monthly in August 1990 titled “Why We Will Soon Miss The
Cold War”, the conditions that had made for decades of peace
were fast disappearing and returning to the multipolar system that
had bred a series of conflicts. Now without the heavy lid ofWashington and Moscow, ethnic or religious conflicts andnationalism have risen to the surface.
The Heisei Era saw the end of the bubble economy in Japanand the subsequent so-called “Lost Decade”. This was a time
when globalization had started through the integration of theEastern bloc into a single global market economy. The era also
witnessed major natural disasters such as the Great HanshinAwaji Earthquake of Jan. 17, 1995 and the Great East Japan
Earthquake of March 11, 2011. People’s prayers in the name ofHeisei have not been fully realized.
As we now approach the start of a new era, our attitude has
become more forward-looking. Let me point out a few factors thatwill color the new era. Festivals have long played a critical role inchanging mindsets and the activities of communities, and theforthcoming Tokyo Olympic & Paralympic Games in 2020 andthe Osaka Expo in 2025 should bring a positive note. But it is timethat we directly faced up to challenges to which we have long
delayed a fundamental response. Demographic changes and theirconsequences should have been predictable and though Japan is a
front-runner in this regard, other mature countries are also facing agreying population and threats to the sustainability of their social
security and fiscal systems. We have a responsibility to share ourlessons regardless of their success or failure.
Then there is the political landmine of income and asset
disparities, with possible collateral damage caused by popular
discontent. This is a threat to the established political parties andwe have yet to learn effective ways of coping with these issues. In
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the social arena too, diversity is a key strategic concept for Japanto pursue, including accepting more foreign professionals andpromoting women in order to change internal systems.
Finally, the new era’s biggest external challenge will be to forma sound and sustainable relationship with China. The start of theHeisei Era coincided with the end of the Cold War, but now there
is a creeping risk of a new cold war with China. However, a
successful containment strategy against the Russian bloc waspossible in the time before globalization, and now supply chains,value chains, human resources and technology are all connected
globally. The private sector is the key player in the market
economy, not only in business but also in security areas.
In the economic area, we have competing groups of countries
in the form of regional integration, FTAs or the rising Chinese
economy. Most recently, the Japan-EU FTA and TPP11 havecome into effect. Conflicts come and go, but we have a more orless shared governing system under the WTO, and the EU, theUnited States and Japan are working to update intellectual
property protection as well as data protection.
In the security area, there used to be the COCOM in the Cold
War period, but the rules of the game at this moment are notcertain, such as in the area of sensitive technologies. Whateverrivalries may exist, most activities in a globalized world would
have to proceed as if it were a normal situation. In this security
area, just as there has been wisdom demonstrated in the sharing
of arms control arrangements, we will need some shared codes ofbehavior.
Without rules or a safe blanket, economic activities cannot
realize the full potential for global growth. Asian countries
especially, whose historical ties with China date back over 1,000years, will be caught in the middle if they find themselves forced
to choose between China and other allegiances.
Coming back to the “spirit of the times”, or the zeitgeist, inaddition to this change of era we are now in the Year of the Boarin the Chinese zodiac. It is believed that this year’s calendar signsees the “conflict and decline” of the previous year change to ayear of “sorting out confusion”. Moreover, the Chinese character
for a boar means the nucleus of a plant storing energy for its
growth, exactly like a boar waiting to rush out of a bush.
We hope that the new era can sort out confusion and find “betterglobalization” by drawing on the lessons of the last 30 years.
Kazumasa Kusaka is chairman and CEO of the Japan Economic Foundation(JEF), as well as being a professor of public policy at the University of Tokyo. He
previously served as special advisor to the prime minister on global warming
after having been vice minister for international affairs at the Ministry ofEconomy, Trade and Industry.
Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 20191