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Interview with Dr. Kent Calder, Vice Dean, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins
University

US-Japan Alliance Will Continue to Be Most
Important Bilateral Relationship in New Era

By Japan SPOTLIGHT
The end of the Heisei Era has prompted much reflection and reminiscence not only among many
Japanese people but also some non-Japanese who have been working in close relationships with thebroader world over these past three decades.
Dr. Kent Calder, vice dean of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins
University in Washington D.C., is a distinguished political scientist with a deep interest in US-Japan
relations. His academic research has been not limited to Japan but has also covered East Asia as a whole,and his recently published book Super Continent – The Logic Of Eurasian Integration takes Asia’s trends
further beyond that continent into global politics. Japan SPOTLIGHT was privileged to interview him on
May 17, 2019 in his office at Johns Hopkins University shortly after our JEF-SAIS Forum’s discussions on
global politics and economy in the face of the US-China tech cold war.
(Interviewed on May 17, 2019)

Naming of the Era, Unique inJapan
JS: Japan still retains the old custom

realized”. Do you think peace waspreserved in Japan during thisperiod?

of changing the name of the era
when a new emperor is enthroned.
Frankly speaking, what do you think
about this custom?

Calder: About a week after the Berlin Wall went
down I remember hearing Henry Kissinger give atalk in Hawaii about the sort of world that he saw
emerging. He was deeply worried about a unified
Germany and what it might mean for the world.
He hoped Europe would be stable, but he saw
Calder: I think it forces Japanese peoplesome possibility that Germany could be a loose
collectively and friends throughout the world tocannon in the center of Europe, without any
think together about transformation and also, inmooring. That sort of a world did not materialize,
some holistic way, about what a long period of
and it is remarkable that even though the Soviet
time actually means. In this case, I think theUnion was a nuclear power, it collapsed and wasperiod has an important holistic quality; theDr. Kent Caldertransformed into a very different system without
beginning of Heisei was the high point of thenuclear disaster or some other sort of terrible
financial bubble, and the bubble was thedevelopment. So I think that the post-Cold War transition was handledculmination of an era of rapid unbalanced growth, based on highpeacefully. Also, the stabilizing of that world through third world
liquidity, high real estate prices and so on. I would characterize thenations, marked by rapid urbanization – Japan played a major role in
Heisei Era as one of transition to a much more globalized Japan thatoverseas development assistance that was among the largest in theplays a more experienced and significant role on the international
world. This helped to stabilize the post-Cold War transition. We haven’t
stage. Economically, Japan does not look as though it cuts the global
had perfect peace, especially with terrorism and some rising tensions.
superpower image that it appeared to be holding in 1980-1990, but I
However, one should also note the role that the emperor has played inthink that is a transition to a more globalized Japan and a Japan more
promoting understanding between Japan and the world.
responsive to the outside world. I think that the emperor himself issensitive to his people, sensitive to the world, and receptive to changes
in the world. He is beloved by his people.
US-Japan Relations in Heisei

Peace in “Heisei”
JS: As you know, “Heisei” means “peace to be
48 Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 2019

JS: We achieved a remarkable close friendshipbetween the United States and Japan during this era.
At the beginning of Heisei, trade friction washttps://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

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intensifying between the two countries, but thanks tothe efforts made on both sides this was mitigatedlittle by little. I believe we achieved a very unique andunprecedented friendship between the two countries.
Calder: My great uncle was commander of battleship the West Virginia
at Pearl Harbor and was thus personally involved in World War II. To
me, it’s a remarkable transition which the US and Japan have madethat President Barack Obama was able to go to Hiroshima, and Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe was able to visit Pearl Harbor, and also able toaddress the Joint Session of Congress. These developments wereremarkable if one considers the history issue. At the beginning of
Heisei, trade frictions were quite serious, but our inter-dependence hasrisen, and frictions have decreased on many lines. The history between
Japan and the US is much less of a factor than it was when the Heisei
Era began.
JS: Some people have pointed out that thisrelationship became similar to that of the US and theUnited Kingdom. Would you concur?

Calder: I think in terms of the historical role of the UK that is probably
right. The US and Japan are the strongest maritime powers in theworld now, and so this is similar to the maritime relationship between
Japan and the UK of a century ago. Today there is a closeness between
Britain and Japan, both having royalty and being island nations, but
Britain is not the global power it once was, so there is a little difference
between the Anglo-Japanese relationship of a century ago and now.
However, I do think there is a lot of similarity in Japan’s relationships
with the US and Britain today, and certainly this triangle of the US,
Japan and Britain is an important one in the world, especially in areas
like finance.

Japanese Economy in Heisei
JS: During Heisei, while we have achieved a certain

amount of success in foreign policy, in terms ofdomestic economy Japan failed to achieve structural
economic reform. As you mentioned, Japan has
started to respond to international demand, and tosome extent has tried to achieve some status in theinternational community. However, typically in thelight of GDP growth rates, Japan has continued tohave very low economic growth. In particular, you
can find that Japan’s growth potential has been
lowered despite the efforts of Abenomics to enhance
growth potential.

Calder: First of all, we shouldn’t deny that there are some areas where
Japan has been quite successful; for example, new materials, aircraftcomponents, cutlery – Japan produces some of the best lightweightmaterials of all kinds in the world. Maybe 60% or 70% of the Boeing
777 fuselage is made in Japan. Of course, Japanese manufacturers
such as Toyota have vied with Volkswagen as the largest car
manufacturer in the world for years. We shouldn’t deny suchconsiderable successes. However, to the extent that the economy has

not reformed structurally, I think that what looked like their
weaknesses were Japan’s strengths; the ability to reduce risk throughgyokai dantai industry associations or diffusing risk through keiretsu
organization and so on. I call these “circles of compensation”. Those
collective groupings in the high-growth area allowed Japan to makevery aggressive capital investment such as in steel mills,
petrochemicals, ship building – really large projects like theshinkansen, which the US was never really able to do. Reducing therisk for individual companies also reduces unfortunately the incentive
for innovation. Companies have incentives to preserve what they haverather than to risk more. This group structure of Japan which aided it
during the high-growth period makes life a little difficult in an era when
there is a greater premium on risk. If there were stronger incentives for
IPOs it might violate Japanese notions of equality, however. Group
organization makes it hard to move rapidly in a period when
globalization is moving so fast, and Japan has been more inclined tosupply the domestic market with very sophisticated yet countryspecific devices like I-Mode. I have always thought that METI was avery risk-oriented organization, but in some other areas liketelecommunications and the structure of corporations the government
has not supported risk, so Japan became oriented towards internal
improvement rather than globalization. Also, political intervention insome sectors has made structural reform difficult. Although there haverecently been some encouraging changes in agriculture.
JS: While “group-oriented” actions are a strength in

one way, they might be inconsistent with information
technology.

Calder: It’s a matter of the particular era of economic development. A
strategy for information technology really needs to be somewhat
different; it needs to involve more risk orientation. I think industrial
policy has been moving that way, but the world has been moving evenfaster.
JS: How about the aging population?
Calder: It is only natural that as people become older, they take lessrisk. They have less incentive to take risk and that makes structuralchange more difficult. That is one reason Japan needs strong ties witha risk-taking country like the US. As Abe’s visit to Silicon Valley
symbolized, technological cooperation is very important between
Japan and the US – particularly structural cooperation in a place like
Silicon Valley that involves innovation-oriented risk taking. Also, more
incentives for incubators, IPOs, for the development of newtechnologies are needed. Some of those things Japan has done very
well – better than the US could ever do – but kaizen needs to be
combined with international cooperation with risk ventures overseas.
Take companies active outside Japan like Softbank and Rakuten. Thatkind of transnational activity is useful. In the establishment of riskoriented ventures like NASDAQ in Japan, METI played an importantrole.
JS: The Japanese management system has also

undergone some transformation.

Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 201949

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Calder: This is very significant. Softbank, Kuroneko, UNIQLO, and a lotof companies in the distribution sector come to mind. In particular,
Rakuten is a good example of management which has been very
innovative and relatively successful, although a lot of its success has
been outside Japan.

What Will the Reiwa Era Look Like?
JS: Looking ahead at the Reiwa Era, Abe mentionedthat a new period should be one where eachindividual can flourish and shine. This fits in with theage of information technology, because individualism
will progress further in Japan through this. Perhaps
this will define the new era.

Calder: As we have discussed, IT and technology does flatten
hierarchies and empowers individuals; for example, self-publishing or
blogs where you can express yourself was something we couldn’t do
10 years ago, but now through new technology and especially theInternet we can easily express ourselves and publicize ideas to thewhole world. Abe also stressed the importance of people expressing
themselves; the idea of “Womenomics” is positive in encouraging
people to express themselves. In a global IT era we are increasinglyconnected, and it is mutually enriching for people to be creative and torealize their own dreams. I think that this is implicit in the charactersused for Reiwa.
JS: Japan is in a somewhat difficult position in theinternational community, given that the US is starting
to withdraw from Asia while China is emerging as astrong power which is sometimes too aggressive inits foreign policy. What is plan B for Japan if the US
withdraws from Asia?

Calder: The natural complementarities and common interests between
the US and Japan are quite strong. Firstly, technology – we are moving
into an area of more information and technology where individuals canrealize their own dreams. This has been the ideal of the US since it was
founded and is exactly what the Reiwa idea is. I do believe in stable
relations with China, but I don’t think that respect for intellectual
property is the idea that China is presenting to the world now. Creativetechnology is thus one area of US-Japan symbiosis. Another area isfood; the US is conversely a major food producer. China has 10 times
the population of Japan and four times that of the US, but inevitably it
will be a food and energy importer. The US is conversely a potential
stable supplier. In terms of technology, food, and resources in the longrun, the US and Japan are natural allies, and the relationship with
China is somewhat more complex for both of them.
That said, US-Japan cooperation won’t happen automatically. Whatis plan B? I hope that we don’t need one, and I think that in the longrun we should be able to avoid a plan B. This is more than anything amatter of the US understanding this natural symbiosis with Japan andthe natural complementarity of our two economies. China also is goingto age in the coming years, and may not be able to sustain an
aggressive foreign policy. I think Pacific relations will thus involvesome degree of hedging. I don’t believe in a zero sum among Japan,
50 Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 2019

US and China; I think healthcare is a good way to hedge. China isgoing to age in a decade, and Japan has a lot of experience inpharmaceuticals, biotechnology, environment, and healthcare andthese are win-win for all three countries. From Japan’s point of view,
the plan B is to hedge in relation to China by stressing areas forcooperation like healthcare which are not conflictual. Japan should
extend a hand to China and should encourage China in a peaceful
direction, and areas such as healthcare, pharmaceuticals andbiotechnology are thus a good way to do it.
JS: Some young Japanese political scientists tell usthat we will need to try to be friends with China, while
keeping good relations with the US.

Calder: Certainly. Japan needs to be sensitive to both sides, but careful
not to be too deferential, and to encourage the US to be, though South
Korea is much smaller than Japan. But some people that I have known
in the South Korean government say that when the US pulls back andappears not to be engaged, the Chinese put more pressure on them; I
wouldn’t be surprised if the same happens to Japan. If the US
relationship becomes more complicated, China will put more pressure
on Japan than it would otherwise. I think that this trilateral relationshipof Japan, China and South Korea could be stabilizing through summit
conferences. However, Japan should realize that the US and Japan willboth be stronger in relation to China if Tokyo and Washington have astrong relationship. We can concede on healthcare to China but not on
security or important technological issues. China does not have thekind of intellectual property protection that the US has, and neither ofus has an alliance with China for security. Being too deferential to
China on technology could easily encourage China to capitalize on thesituation, particularly by putting more pressure on Japan.
JS: The digital world is increasingly described interms of volatility, uncertainty, complexity andambiguity. Would you concur?

Calder: I would agree with this view, but we should also understandthat the global market is operating with greater force and complexity
and subtlety than we have ever seen before. The market is remarkablein the way it encourages innovation, and also provides a lot ofhedging. There are new mechanisms to reduce risk and to control
volatility that are market-oriented. Apart from government, private
firms and individuals also hedge risk. It is a disturbing and volatile
world that we live in, but it does have some mechanisms forcontrolling risk. But in the end, I would say that it is important to havecountries that have some vision and some willingness to take risk andsome sense of what their interests are. A lot of crucial issues are
emerging in this Reiwa Era as they did for Japan and the US and theworld at the beginning of Heisei, when the Cold War was ending.
Heisei was an era of stability and peace, and now the emphasis needs
to be on creativity and innovation.

Written with the cooperation of Joel Challender, who is a translator, interpreter,
researcher and writer specializing in Japanese disaster preparedness.