COVER STORY • The Future of Space as Global Commons • 1

Interview with Dr. Saadia M. Pekkanen, Job and Gertrud Tamaki Professor at the Henry M.
Jackson School of International Studies and Adjunct Professor at the School of Law, University ofWashington

The US-Japan Space Alliance — theMost Critical Bilateral Relationshipfor Peace & Prosperity

By Japan SPOTLIGHT
When we talk about national security today, space security is critical to ensuring peace, as the numberof nations participating in space development is increasing and no national territory is defined in space. Inlight of the intensified competition among nations and space business firms, how can this important
domain be managed by rules or international cooperation? How will the US-Japan alliance, the mostimportant bilateral relationship in the world in terms of security and economic prosperity, work well toachieve this purpose? The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, which fosters US-Japan friendshipamong academics, business people and politicians in both countries, organized the US-Japan Space
Forum in 2014. The details of this forum are presented by Ryan Shaffer, the foundation’s director ofprograms, in another article in this issue. Here we introduce an interview by e-mail with Professor Saadia
Pekkanen of the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington, who is
co-chair of the US-Japan Space Forum. She is an expert on outer space security, law and policy as well as
on international relations involving Japan and Asia. She is also a contributor to Forbes on the spaceindustry.
(Responses received May 21, 2018)

Introduction
JS: Could you please briefly
introduce us to your work on spacein security and industry and also
US-Japan relations in spacecollaboration?

Forum, under the auspices of the Maureen andMike Mansfield Foundation. I have learned anenormous amount from the diverse
perspectives of the forum’s stakeholders, as
they come from government, business, andacademia. We have become a great transpacificcommunity to learn from, and to build
consensus views on outer space affairs and thepossibilities of collaboration between our twocountries.

Pekkanen: I work at the intersection ofinternational relations and international law,
specializing in the economic, legal, and security
implications of the space industry worldwide.
Space as a Venue for Business
My specific regional focus is on Japan’s foreign
JS: How do you estimate theaffairs, and given my broader interests I havepotential of the space industry andfollowed very closely the trajectories of thebusiness in the future?
country’s space law and policy over thepostwar period. Japan is one of the world’s top
Pekkanen: The global space economy today is
space powers around today, and the changing
Dr. Saadia M. Pekkanen
estimated to be around $330 billion. There areaspects of its commercial and national security
projections that it will go beyond $1 trillion by the 2040s. This is all
space directions deserve close attention. For the United States,thrilling and exciting for sure. But I think nobody can be quite sure ofJapan is an ideal partner for space collaboration along multiple
where the industry and business will actually head, or which private
dimensions as human economic activity begins to extend beyond theand public competitors will rise to the top in the years ahead. Rightplanet, and as a range of natural and deliberate dangers in space
now, it is a very fluid situation, and I would say we are all somewhere
threaten the promise of those ventures. Over the past four years,near the starting line.
I have had the tremendous honor of co-chairing the US-Japan Space
4 Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 2018https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

COVER STORY 1

JS: What will be the main impact of spacet h i n k t h e s o - c a l l e d S i l i c o n Va l l e y m o d e l(interdependency among business, science, lawfirms or the public sector) would work as well in thespace industry as it did in IT?

Pekkanen: We usually think of the space industry in terms ofrockets, spacecraft, satellites, and so on. But we have to begin
rethinking what we know about them, and how we connect them toother policy trajectories among the world powers today. Reusablerockets are one development that we have to keep an eye on because
of innovative players like SpaceX and Blue Origin in the US that arebacked by billionaires. In Japan, we also see a similar phenomenon,such as Interstellar Technologies developing the country’s firstcompletely private rocket. This too has the backing of a Japanesebillionaire. The more important point is that the high-profile nature of
the billionaire rockets masks the way that reusable launch capability
is critical not just for civilian or commercial markets but also nationalsecurity space architectures. Another entrepreneurial trend that isworth marking is one that connects space assets like small satellites
to big data and machine learning. If things stay the course, thistrajectory promises to transform how we map, see, and strategize
about human activities across civilian, commercial, and military
domains on Earth.

Pekkanen: Frankly, it is too early to say anything about any onespace start-up, as we have yet to get concrete results on profitabilityof the many space ventures around us, whether in or out of the US.
I think the so-called Silicon Valley model is good at drawing attention
and funding to certain configurations of technologies for sure — andthis is certainly important — but we need to be careful about
painting too rosy a picture of its causal impact on businessoutcomes in the long run in any industry. There are surely variationsin terms of business successes and failures, booms and busts, evenin the IT field with which the model is so often associated. SoI expect that we will probably see the same nuanced patterns in awide variety of space products and services in the years ahead,
whether in the US or abroad.

development on the existing industry? Do you thinkspace will become one of the most promising venues
for ventures and entrepreneurs?

JS: How do you view intensified competition in thefuture space business, in particular possible rivalries
among nations?

Pekkanen: Countries are already competing in the space game, butexpectations about the competition have shifted with thecommercialization of the space industry. However, I think
governments are going to be critical shapers of the ecosystem forthe new space industry. And today, both in the developed anddeveloping world, governments are still figuring out how to position
their countries in the emerging space-based economy. I think one
important aspect of the intensified competition for governments isgoing to come in securing human talent worldwide for creating nextgeneration space products and services. Governments are going tohave to step up their efforts to shape the development of a space
workforce that can then use such products and services in whateverdomain they happen to be employed in. Shaping and sustaining aspace workforce is going to be a challenge for established powers
like Japan, China, India, Europe and the US, but also others who
might want to get in the game such as the UAE. It will also be
important for public-private efforts to advance the frontiers of space
both in the commercial and military domains in the long run.

JS: How do you estimate the potential of Japanesestart-ups in the space industry? Are they still in thestage of infancy?

Pekkanen: Today we talk about a space-based economy, with alleyes on the commercial players. If we are really looking at only thebusiness of space, then many if not most of the up and comingcommercial ventures will be subject to market pressures and realities
in situations where returns on investment may be stretched out overtime with a lot of uncertainty. So this is an important thing toremember as we think about the continued funding and resourcesfrom the Silicon Valley model that we just discussed. Nobody quite
knows how things will work out when, for example, you are talking
about commercializing asteroid mining or orbital debris cleanup or
the general public going up and down as space tourists. Nobody
quite knows also the size of the eventual market, if any. And nobody
knows quite how long it will all take. So I would say that Japanesestart-ups are in the same place as all other competitors in the world.
They are lining up like a lot of other players at the starting line inwhat promises to be a long new space race. What kinds of spacetechnology products and services will stand or fall over time, andwho will have staying power in the competition ahead remains to beseen. Meanwhile, Japanese companies can draw on the country’s
long-standing industrial strengths — such as electronicminiaturization and robotics — that should not be underestimatedand that will be critical for advancing space technology frontiers in
new ways and perhaps in the context of cross-border collaborations.

Space Start-Ups
JS: There are a number of distinguished US start-ups
in Silicon Valley. How do you think they willcontribute to future space development? Do you
Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 20185COVER STORY 1

Driving Force & Impediments to SpaceIndustry
JS: Could you explain in detail about what you

mentioned in one of your Forbes articles, “Fivefactors that will shape the space industry over thenext five years”? What do you think will drive thedevelopment of space business and what do you
think will be possible impediments to development?

Pekkanen: To be honest, I think these kinds of headlines do not dojustice to the complexities of the space realities around us today. At
the moment, I can pinpoint a few things that are going to be critical
for the space economy in the years ahead. One of the most important
aspects is the leadership of the new space companies, and the ways
the new generation of CEOs are plugging their companies into adiverse global talent pool and workforce in order to better position
themselves in the upcoming competition. This was one of the firstthings that struck me when I began to take a look at the compositionof the new space companies in Japan. A second important factor thatwill contribute to the rise and spread of new space ventures is thelegal and regulatory ecosystem. This is not only critical for stabilizing
expectations today for both established and newer space companies,
but also serving as a signal of government interest in facilitating theprogress of the future space economy. Finally, we do have to worry
about impediments. To my mind, as offensive counterspace realities
come to the fore with alarming frequency, the single biggest danger
to all the commercial ventures is the possibility of a space conflict.
JS: In particular, on space start-ups, what do you think

will be necessary to promote their activities as
government policies, regulatory frameworks orsubsidies?

Pekkanen: Governments and their actions of course are not the only
things that will shape outcomes in the space economy. But as I havebeen saying, I think governments will remain important players,either as buyers or backers, as the space economy takes shape. Thisis especially important in the context of the Asian space competition,with different traditions and cultures of government-businessinteractions. Take India, for example. The government-backed Polar
Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) launched 104 small satellites in one
go in February 2017, and 31 satellites again in January 2018.
Governments can also give significant backing through setting legal
and regulatory expectations, and a number of them have establishednational laws and acts to foster the competitiveness of their spaceindustries. In Japan, for example, the Japanese government’s newlaw related to space activities is already bearing fruit in very
interesting ways. Consider the recent moves that are bringing
together the different competencies of Canon Electric, IHI Aerospace,
Shimizu Corporation, and the Development Bank of Japan toconstruct the country’s first private launch site, possibly in
6 Japan SPOTLIGHT • July / August 2018

Wakayama Prefecture by 2021.

Future Development of US-Japan
Collaboration in SpaceJS: How do you see the future development ofUS-Japan collaboration in space? Do you think it will
be strengthened for security reasons?

Pekkanen: I mentioned the US-Japan Space Forum earlier, and how
it has had a huge impact on opening my mind to many possible
paths forward for the US and Japan as allies in space. If I could bringin the famous saying by Ambassador Mansfield in which heemphasized the importance also of economic and security linkages,I would say that today the US-Japan space alliance is the mostimportant bilateral relationship out there, bar none. There have been
a number of steady moves on the part of both countries to deepen
their cooperation, especially if you think about the fact that spaceassets from the ground to the various orbits represent the criticalinfrastructure for war strategists and fighters back on Earth.
Needless to say, the future of the space economy depends on thisreality as well. In 2011, the US and Japan issued a joint statement,
stating their interest in the protection of and access to space. So
both sides need to devote resources to and work on solidifying aunited and seamless front. Ensuring space security means preparing
for peace.
JS: If you do not mind, could you tell us about yourfuture projects, in research or mediation, between
business and public policy or academia?

Pekkanen: Right now I am fortunate to have a two-year project
funded by the Center for Global Partnership (CGP), focusing on newfrontiers in space security and mapping new space strategies forJapan and the US. My collaborators on this project are John
Mittleman, from the US Naval Research Lab; Setsuko Aoki, professor
at Keio University Law School and vice director of the Center forSpace Law at Keio; and Hiroshi Yamakawa, from Kyoto University,
who has just become president of JAXA. We are a highlyinterdisciplinary team with backgrounds in engineering, politicalscience, law and policy, which of course makes our work stronger
but also more challenging to manage. So I am doing the systems
integration on this project, so to speak! I am deeply honored to workwith and learn from researchers and policymakers of their caliber.
Together we are doing our bit to advance scholarship and policy
outreach in various trajectories in the emerging space frontier,focusing at present on small satellites and big data in the maritime
domain.Formatted by Naoyuki Haraoka, editor-in-chief of Japan SPOTLIGHT &executive managing director of the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF).