DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINABLE REGION USINGLOW CARBON SOCIETY CONCEPT –THE CASE OF ISKANDAR MALAYSIAHO CHIN SIONG

COP17 SIDE EVENT
2 December 2011 .

Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

3 Establishing Low Carbon Society Scenario
On Going Low Carbon Society Research Project at Asia
City and Region

National(Source: National Institute of Environment Studies, Japan)

Contents
1234• Background Issues and Challenges• Current Sustainable Policies in Malaysia• Case Study – Iskandar Malaysia (Quantitative modelling)• Implementation of LCS modelling / Roadmap• Conclusion – Scenarios towards Low Carbon Cities

31. Introduction
Malaysia:
Land Area: 329 750 km2

Population: 28.3 Million (2010)

Population Growth Rate : 1.3% (2006‐2010)

GDP Growth Rate: 5.7% per annum (2006‐2008) ( target 6% p.a 2011‐2015)
Climate: Tropical (Temp: 24.5˚C – 33.7˚C)Ethnicity: Malay & Bumiputra (64%),

Chinese(26%), Indian (8%), Others(1%))
4Malaysian Low Carbon Cities

DATUM: KLKuala Lumpur Architecture Festival 2011

1 Introduction
The Need to Develop Low Carbon Cities

Malaysia Commitment
Speech by YAB Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, Prime Minister“… Malaysia is proposed a voluntary reduction up to 40%
in terms of emission intensity of GDP by the year 2020
comparedto2005
levels.”17th December 2009

Global Citizens + Responsibilities
For the Earth, for our future generation

Green as New Consumer Culture, New
Market, New Growth

Money Saving
Energy conservation and renewable energy

2. Malaysian Outlook
The CO2 emission per capita and emission intensity of selected countries in 2007
Countries
World
United States
SingaporeJapanUnited Kingdom
Malaysia
China
ThailandIndonesia
India

Emission per capita
Emission Intensity tones oftones of CO2 per capita CO2 per US$1000 of GDP
4.35
19.1
9.8
9.7
8.6
6.7
4.6
3.5
1.7
1.2

0.73
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.3
2.5
1.3
1.6
1.7

The 10th Malaysian Plan(2011‐2015) has outlined
2 major National Policies
on Environmental
Protection andconservation :National Green Technology Policy• Emphasizes on Sustainable development, development of roadmaps to guide the applicationof green technologies & establishment of Green Tech Financing Scheme.
National Climate Change Policy• Coordinate and streamline policy & legislations, stashed inter‐ministrial and cross sectoralcommittee to facilitate implement and also identify options and strategies to achieve a low
carbon economy.
6Case study
Iskandar Malaysia
2,217 km2
Pop.1.3m (2010)

Iskandar Malaysia, Johor

7

3. Background of Iskandar Malaysia
Location of Iskandar Malaysia

8Iskandar Malaysia at a Glance

9Comprehensive Development Plan 2006‐2025

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:

Downloadable atwww.iskandarmalaysia.com.myBalanced DevelopmentProtect and Conserve Nature, Historic and Open Spaces



TODs

Promote Infill & Redevelopment

Enhance AccessibilityPromote Key Economic Areas as Focal Point For GrowthPlan & Manage Regional GrowthPlan for Innovative & Sustainable Infrastructure &Utilities

Liveable, Walkable Green Cities ‐ Quality andSustainable Neighbourhoods
Page 10

ExSS Model Structure
Exportby goods
Economy:Government
expenditure- Economic
growth level
Importratioregion- Basic industries
in theInput
coefficient matrix- FiscalpolicyPrivateconsumptions- Private
investment
including FDI

Household:Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturingindustry

Commercial
building floorareaFreighttransport
demand- TechnologicaldevelopmentFixed capitalformation- Demographic structure- Sense of Population
value- Balance of work & life
- Consumption style Household size
- Living style (consumption and time use)
- Education
Population

Output byindustry

IO
analysis

Number ofhousehold- Consideration of environment

Floor area per output

Energy*:- Technological development- Availabilityof energy
resource
Energy service
demandper- Diffusion ofrenewableenergydriving force- Fuel price- Power
supplyend‐use
policy device
Energy- Behavior change
share- Awarenessofpeoplebusiness etc
Energy end‐use&devicePassenger
transport
demandTripdistribution
distance- Population- Share ofvehicles**Modalshare

Energy service
demandFuel share
Energy efficiency- Urban/rural development plan**Freight generation
per- Constructionof infrastructure**
output area
- Nature conservation- Renewalof building
stockTransport
distance

Final energy demand*Related to selection of LC measures.

energy efficiency

Dispersed power
generation (DPG)

Trip per&person
Transport
land use:

Energy demand(DPG)** Sometimes regarded as LC measures/Modal share

Central power
generation (CPG)

Energy efficiency (CPG)

Energy demand(CPG)

Fuel share (CPG)

Energy efficiency DPG

Transmission loss (CPG)

Primary energy supply

Own use (CPG)

CO2 emssions

CO2 emission factor
11

Sustainable Development within Iskandar Malaysia:
Integrating 3 main elements

Livability and Sustainability
are the core essences of theframework and thrust of theComprehensive
Development Plan (CDP)
EconomicDevelopment

Environmental
Protection

Community &Social
Development

The Tools; (ExSS & Backcasting
Model) play an important role ingetting the numbers (Facts andFigures) to support in thedecision making process whenthe Local Authorities andIskandar Regional Development
Authority design the Policies &Guidelines towards a Low
Carbon Scenario.
1Socio Economic Scenario of IM
2025/

2005

2025

1,353,200
317,762
37,641
27,817
121,4311,860
83,502
36,0693,005,815
751,454
176,224
58,628474,129
5,375
263,444
205,309

2.2
2.4
4.7
2.1
3.9
2.9
3.2
5.7

6.8

19.3

2.8

1.3
5.7
0.6

1.7
16.3
1.2

2.9
2.9
2.1

Passenger transport demand (mil p‐km)

3,816

8,677

2.3

Freight transport demand (mil t‐km)

1,6525,303

13
3.1

Population
No. of households
GDP (mil RM)
GDP per capita (RM/capita)
Gross output (mil RM)
Primary industry (mil RM)
Secondary industry (mil RM)
Tertiary industry (mil RM)
Floor space for commercial (mil m2)
Offices
Shops
Hospitals & Schools

2005Energy Demand By Sector
12,000Freight transport
10,936

Passenger transport

Energy demand (ktoe) .

10,000

1,442

232%

8,000

790

Industry
Commercial
Residential5,915

6,000
6,635
4,000

834

253

3,286

2,000

978

1,733
382
2400
2005

Industry is expected to be
6,635 ktoe and will maintainthe largest share of 61%.

3,494572359

Energy demand in IM is
projected to increase from3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oilequivalent) in 2005 to 10,936
ktoe in 2025 for the BaU case
(BaU: business as usual)

685

1,091

649

2025 BaU

2025 CM
14

Energy Demand by Energy Sources
Coal

12,000Hydro power

Energy demand (ktoe) .

Solar & windpower
Biomass

1,844

10,00061
Natural gas

8,000

Increase in demandfor natural gas (3.2times) theconsumption in 2005.

Petroleum
3,854
6,000

964

447

4,000
289
60
2,00033193

1,209

4,978

1,729

3,694

Energy sources suchas biomass, solar
and wind power will
be newly introduced
for primary energy in2025 CM case.

78802005

2025 BaU

2025 CM

15

GHG Emission By Sector
50,00045,48445,000

4,070
1,672

GHG emissions (ktCO2) .

40,000Freight transport
Passenger
transport
Industry

35,000Commercial

30,000Residential
24,83225,00019,58920,0001,481

12,552

15,000
1,615
10,000 1,015
6,035
5,000
2,41902005

7,195

7,715
1,468
2025 BaU

GHG Emissions in IM areprojected to increase from12,552 ktoe CO2 (2005) to45,484 ktoe CO2 (2025BaU)
Industry Sector will
increase 4.1 times in total
as compared to 2004 in
GHG emission . (54%oftotal GHG emission in2025 BaU)

447

10,8973,802
2,9722025 CMGHG emissions per capital: 9.3 tonnes of CO2 /capita(2005) to 15.1 tonnes/capita (2025 BaU ), with
CM will be reduced to 6.5
tonnes of CO2/capita.
16

Potential Mitigation in IM
50,0005521

GHG emissions/reductions (kt-CO2)

40,0003510
777

35,00030,000

262%
57%

10831

25,00045483
20,00052%15,000

Transport demand management
Fuel shifting
Efficiency improvement (buildings)
Efficiency improvement (transport)

4463
Efficiency improvement (industry)
19162
Efficiency improvement (powersector)

10,0005,000Emission Reductions

623

45,000GHG emissions

12552

0
2005

2025 BaU

2025 CM17

Low Carbon Cities Policy Package•Environmental performancestandard and evaluation ofbuildings•Adjustment of tax rate of fixed
asset tax
•Low interest loans to investment
to energy efficient buildings

Buildings•Environmental performancestandard of equipments•Environmental labeling•Education and information service•Green purchasing policy

Transport & Land
•Environmental
use
performance standard of•Urban planning•Transport planning•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset•Investment to public transportvehicles•Tax rate adjustment toenergy efficient vehicles•Promotion of bio fuel•Incentive to introduce energy efficientequipments & buildings•Incentive to introduce renewable energy

Energy efficiency
improvement

Lowering CO2
intensity•Subsidy to introduce
photovoltaic power
generation system

Industry•Subsidy to investment toenergy efficient equipments•Promotion of technology
transfer•Controlling urban growth& choice of transport mode

Transport
demandcontrol

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

IRDA Blueprints that promote LCS

Literature Review / Preliminary Findings
The Environmental Theme

Environmental
Theme:
GreenTransport

Environmental
Theme:
Green Energy

Environmental
Theme:
Low Carbon
IskandarMalaysia

Vision:StrongSustainable
Metropolis ofinternational
standing

Environmental
Theme:
Green Growth
Cluster

Environmental
Theme:
Healthy Lifestyle
Environmental
Theme:
Sustainable
SWM

LCS Research groups

Conclusion
The current annual GHG emission in Iskandar Malaysia is about
12.6 million t‐CO2. In the BaU scenario, by 2025, it will increase
to 45.5 million t‐CO2 or 3.6 times higher than that of 2005.
However by adopting the mitigation options available, by 2025
the emissions can be decreased to about 60% and suppressed
to a 19.6 million t‐CO2.
This project illustrates importance of collaboration of R&D /scientific study and implementer (IRDA) to develop Low
Carbon Society for a fast growing region in Asia in general andMalaysia in particular.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
HO CHIN SIONGACKNOWLEDGMENT FOR THE SUPPORT UNDERSATREPS PROJECT SPONSORED BY JICA AND JST