A side event at COP17, Durban, South Africa

Low carbon society (LCS) in Asia:
from planning to implementation

Messages from Asia Low carbon Society ProjectMikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies
02 Dec, 2011, Durban

Project is funded by Global Environmental Research Fund, Ministry of Environment, Japan

Scenario approache towards LCS

Two approaches for ASIA LCS[Top‐down approach]
Global emissions scenario analysis using
CGE model
Identify the emission allowances for each
Asian country to ensure the global
emissions by half by 2050.
Japan, China, India, Korea, Thailand,Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore,Indonesia and Taiwan.

【Bottom‐up approach】
National, local, city‐level approach using asimplified tools
Discuss LCS visions which consider thelocal conditions & targets with local
researchers/policy makers individually.
Malaysia, India, China, Thailand, Indonesia,
Vietnam, Ahmedabad city (India), Bhopal
city (India)• Is it feasible to implement a scenario with
cutting the GHG emissions by half in 2050
from 1990 level?
•What would be the emission allowance foreach Asian country? What would be theimpact on economy?

•What is the LCS in each region look like?
•Is it possible to achieve the LCS together
with solving the other socio economic issues
in the region?
•What should be done to achieve the vision?

3

Assessment of the “50% reduction” scenario• Reducing GHG emissions by half by 2050 to the1990 level: Feasible• Marginal Abatement Cost: 458 $/tCO2 in 2050
•Cost reduction (possible? How?) : need further discussion• Impact on GDP: 2% (In some regions >10%)• Share of GHG emissions from Asia is increasing. Need to avoid lock-inof high carbon infrastructure.
100

Non-energy
非エネルギー

90

土地利用
Land
use
活動量demand
Service

Gt-CO2-eq/year

80

構造変化change
Structural

70

エネルギー効率
EnergyEfficiency

60

Fuelswitch
燃料転換Electricity
電力需要demand reduction

50Countermeasures
In the Asia

Generation
発電効率 efficiency

40

Renewable
再生可能

30

原子力
Nuclear
CCS

20

Emission trading (Net import)
排出枠の純輸入

10

Emission from Asia (Halving Scenario)
アジアにおける排出量（世界半減時）0Global emission (BAU)
世界の排出量（SLCS）

2005201020152020202520302035204020452050

世界の排出量（世界半減時）
Global emission (Halving scenario)

4Two approaches for ASIA LCS[Top‐down approach]
Global emissions scenario analysis using
CGE model
Identify the emission allowances for each
Asian country to ensure the globalemissions by half by 2050.
Japan, China, India, Korea, Thailand,
Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore,
Indonesia and Taiwan.

【Bottom‐up approach】
National, local, city‐level approach using asimplified tools
Discuss LCS visions which consider thelocal conditions & targets with local
researchers/policy makers individually.
Malaysia, India, China, Thailand, Indonesia,
Vietnam, Ahmedabad city (India), Bhopal
city (India)• Is it feasible to implement a scenario with
cutting the GHG emissions by half in 2050
from 1990 level?
•What would be the emission allowance foreach Asian country? What would be theimpact on economy?

•What is the LCS in each region look like?
•Is it possible to achieve the LCS together
with solving the other socio economic issues
in the region?
•What should be done to achieve the vision?

5

Climate and Energy Policies
Country

Economic Growth

Climate Policy

China

GDP: 4 times fromthe year 2000 to2020 (7%pa)

CO2 emissions per
GDP：40‐45% reductionby 2020 to 2005 level

Share of non‐fossil fuel in PE:15％（2020）
Nuclear：2020（70‐80GW）, 2030（200GW）, 2050（400‐500GW）

Indonesia

2005‐2010：5.5%
2010‐2014：6.6％
2015：7.2％
2015‐2030：7.2％

26% reduction to BaU
during next 10 years.
41% with international
support・Geothermal：more than 5%（2025）
・Other new/renewable：more than 5%（2025）
・Bioenergy：more than 5%（2025）
・Liquid coal: at least 2% (2025)
・Oil：less than 20%;Gas: more than 30%; coal: more than 33%

India

2007‐2012：9％

Emission per GDP：20‐
25% reduction by 2020
to 2005 level・Primary energy supply：117EJ（2052）
・Electricity supply：75EJ（2052）
・Renewable energy：2.7EJ（2052）
・Nuclear energy：19.4EJ（2052）

Japan

GDP：more than
2％

2020：25% reduction to1990 level2050：80% reduction

・Energy independence and Fossil Fuel develop: double (2030)
・Increase of zero emission electricity
・Decrease in energy consumption in household: half

2020：30% reduction toBaU（4% to 2005 level）
Forest sink：1854MtCO2（2020）

・Energy efficiency：0.185kgoe/US$（46% decrease to present)
・Share of renewable energy (in primary energy supply)：8.6%（2020）、11%（2030）
・Emission factor in electricity：0.11kgC/kwh（2022）

2020: 40% reduction to2005 level withinternational support（technology transferand funding）

・Increase of energy import of hydro and coal (2015)
・Remove subsidy to fossil fuel (2015)
・Energy saving: 4000ktoe(cumulative by 2015)
・Renewables in electricity：24% in 2050（total capacity：21.4GW, Electricity generation44208GWh)

Korea

Malaysia

High income
country by 2020

Energy Policy

The effects of countermeasures differ by country
Scenarios of each region vary in terms of combination of actions and theireffects.
Ex) Thailand: Higher reductions from power generation and fuel shift in Industry
Vietnam: More focusing on demand side measures such as modal shift etc.
Residential

ThailandCommercial
Low carbon
generation

Building

VietnamLow carbon
generation
Power
Generation

EfficientappliancesPower
generation

Modal
Shift

Industry

Modal
Shift

600

Modal
Shift

500
Efficiency

400‐43%improvement300
20010002005

CM
2030

Efficiency
improvement

improvement

600

Building

Commercial

Industry

Efficientappliances

FreightTransport
Passenger
Transport

Efficiency

Fuel shift

CO2 emission (Mt‐CO2)

CO2 emission (Mt‐CO2)

Freight Passenger
Transport Transport

ResidentialModalShift500

Fuel shift

Efficiency

400

improvement‐45%300
20010002005

CM20307A Policy Package towards Low-Carbon Thailand
43% reduction to BaU

Residential and Commercial
30 MtCO2 (12%)- Building insulation- Energy efficiency labeling- Green purchasing policy- Energy performance standard ofequipment and evaluation ofbuildings

Transportation

38 MtCO2 (16%)- Environmental performancestandard of vehicles- Tax rate adjustment to energy
efficient vehicles- Promotion of natural gas and hybridcars- Promotion of renewable energy- Promotion of mass transit system

Electricity Generation
38 MtC

92 MtCO2 (38%)- Subsidy in investment to energy
efficient equipment- Promotion of technology transfer- Promotion of renewable energy- Fuel switching- Reduce own usage andtransmission loss

Industry

80 MtCO2 (33%)- Subsidy in investment to energy
efficient equipment- Promotion of technology transfer- Promotion of alternative andrenewable energy
Source: Bundit Lim, Thammasat University

How to deploy our study towards leapfrog development in Asia
Policy makers
Central/regional
government
administration
Development
Agencies
NGOs

Collaboration for LCS
scenario development andbuilding roadmaps

Each country’s
domestic/ localresearch
instituteCore researchmembers

Request of more practical,
realistic roadmaps and also
tractable tools for real world

Application anddevelopment toactual LCS
processes

Development andmaintenance ofstudy tools/models

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Korea
ChinaIndia
Japan

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

Timing is important toavoid lock-in!

10