9th APGEOSS Symposium

Xiangzheng Deng

A Spatial Decision Support System
for Agriculture and Natural
Resources Management in China
 Need to take decisions and make critical day-to-day and long-term planning on
agricultural and natural resource management (strategic and tactical).
 Supports have to be relevant, timely, user-friendly to assist and manage cropcultivation. Decision Support System(DSS) offers scientific-technical tools tocombine skills and experience.

Outline of this talk
BackgroundFramework
An application
Development prospect

As we all know,
compared to geographical factors, anthropogenic factors
need to be paid more attention with……
Agricultural condition
monitoring system

Meteorological andhydrologicalmonitoring andforecasting system

Floods in Mexico Supper Typhoon
2013.09.20
2013.09.22

ClimateGeoenvironment
Systemhttp://www.dsac.cn/

Land

Human

Human domains

http://tm.arcgisonline.cn:8038/

It is difficult to provide timely and effective decision support for agriculture andnatural resources management due to the lagged behind observation of humandimensions.

Categories of natural resources closely
linked with agriculture
Land resource
Water resource
Genetic resource
DSS
relatedEnergy resource
Climate resource
Human resource
Economic resource

Decision Support System(DSS)
while used in agricultural and natural resource management,
DSS is with specific features:• Aim at promoting areas of agriculture andnatural resources management of all
disciplines；• A comprehensive collection to disseminate
knowledge and information on these fields；• A platform with the debate and disseminationof the research fields and directions withpractical applications.

Decision Support System(DSS)
A coupled human–environment system. It is an integrated scientificframework for studying the interface and reciprocal interactions thatlink human (e.g., economic, social) to natural (e.g., hydrologic,atmospheric, biological) sub-systems of the system.

Outline of this talk
BackgroundFramework
An application
Development prospectFramework of a Spatial Decision SupportSystemPlanning

Decision making

Communication

Simulation platform

Scenarios

Scenarios
Forecast for
futureModel base(library)

Typical scenarios

Data analysis
Geographic Database

Technicalsupport

Knowledgebase(Experts’knowledge)

Design of a Spatial Decision Support System

ResearcherEndUser

SoftwareEngineer

Adaptive and integrative tools andstrategies for natural resourcesmanagement;
The outcome of the project should
be a tool-box for integrated
agriculture and natural resources;
The expected impact is a longterm integrated management ofnatural resources.

Data collection/handling
Six approaches

Remote sensing

Data mining

Field monitoring

Field survey

Model Simulation

Historical data

Prediction of the outcomes along withthe scenario-based development paths

Final outputs of DSS...to deliver:•Guidance document•Toolbox•Training course(modules)•Policy briefs•Publications

Toolbox of DSS• Database with tools + standard• Several keys to find tools in the database• Wizard, queries, ..
• Interaction with online guidance• Possibility to add tools, cases, ..

Outline of this talk
BackgroundFramework
An application
Development prospect

An Application in Yunnan province
A spatial decision support system provides suggestions for the sloping
land development in Yunnan province
Typicalscenarios
generator

Key policy-based
parameters extraction
and quantification

Scenarios

Decision support system
Evolution platform
IDevelopment
strategy

Medium to simulate warningIIe.g. grain import price (dollar/ton)
150+SFSFS140

F130120Key stock and variation in discharge

110

Coefficientsand parameter

10020102030405090

An application in Yunnan Province

Decision support platform forthe agricultural development aswell as the vulnerability ofnatural disasters

Case study in Yunnan Province
Altitudes up to 2000 meters;

Reserved land resources are mostly locatedin the mountains, where altitude is lower than2500 m while with steep slope.

Mountain
Hill
Mesa

Plain
Plateau

Total area of Yunnan is about
390 thousands km2.
Mountains and plateaus cover
94% of the total area.

DEMSlope

Local characteristics
Rapid expansion of built-up area exert great effects on:
low natural and ecosystem carrying capacity, water loss and soil erosion,
 surface runoff.
LegendLegend1988

2008

Local characteristics

Spatial heterogeneity of the air temperature at 2m above theground in Yunnan province during 2020-2030 (Unit: ℃)

Spatial heterogeneity of precipitation in Yunnan province
during 2020-2050 (Unit: mm)Spatial pattern of the risk of drought in Yunnan province
during 2020-2050

Time-series data suggests thetemperature of the same place will
steadily increase by 0.5℃/10 years;
Precipitation in the northwest partwill show a first decreasing and thenincreasing trend, first reaching
2850mm in year 2020, thendeclining to 2650mm in year 2030.

Challenges
 Lack of the geological hazard/ecological monitoring network Incomplete monitoring indicator system Weak capability of disaster monitoring Remote-sensing based monitoring network
 Lagged behind identification of risk thresholdKey research tasks
In-site monitoring ofgeological hazards ofmountain development

Ecological environment
back ground data of theresearch area

In-site monitoring ofenvironment of mountain
development

Real time database of the ecological risk and geological hazards
monitoring

Geologicalhazards processsimulation

Evaluation method of theimplementation of land use
planning

Building extractionof remote sensing
image analysis

Ecological risk
assessment
model

Geological hazards and ecological risk
monitoring of low hilly mountain

Land use regulation measure and suggestion for low hilly mountain development

Build up agricultural andnatural database forearly warning geologicalhazardDesign models,calibration, validationand efficiency
evaluation of models
Extract key parameters
for improving models,
analyze thresholds of thesimulated system
Integrate systematic
analysis for agriculture
development and natural
disaster relief

Work package #1
Select indicating index of geological hazards type andecological risk

 Collect spatial data ofagriculture and nature disasterrisk etc.
 Select the demonstration areaand build the GPS observation
net to monitor adjustment anddisplacement
 Lay automatic sensor
equipment Develop the monitoring
database of agriculture andnature disaster relief based on
memory access technology

Fundamental data(ecological, meteorological,topological, etc.)

Remotesensing
dataAnalysis on present situation and characteristics ofgeological hazards and ecological risk

Set GPS displacement observation net

Real-time transformation of data and remotemonitoring
Monitoring data of balancing anddisplacement fall, displacement, gradient)

Data processing and analysis

Monitoring database of geological hazards and ecological risk

Work package #2
Historical geologic
hazards distribution
Frequency

Ecological monitoringsite layout

Real-timetransformation

figure of assessmentof geologic hazards

spatialinterpolation
distribution ofclimate factors

process simulation of geologic
hazards formation
administrativ
e boundaries

spatial distributionof risk warning

LUCC

Landform
structure

Regionalhydrologi
calfactors

Ecologicalparameters
monitoring

superimposed
calculating
Simulation of ecohydrological process

Run-off depth

Erosionmodulusspatial analysis
geologic hazards warning map
research on assessment modelof geologic hazards warningand ecological risk

Ecological risk assessment

 Select and explore the project area（Low hilly mountain of Dali city）
 Collect meteorological, hydrological, land cover and land use, and topography data to build risk model Explore the mechanism of occurrence of geological hazards, prepare parameters for RA(RockfallAnalyst) simulation，launch geological disaster process simulation

Work package #3
Assessment indicators

 Research on remote sensing
image analysis algorithm,
build extraction techniquebased on high resolution
remote sensing image
 Determine warning thresholdof key index of natural
disasters and agricultural risks
 Develop warning andmonitoring system of natural
disaster risk and agriculturaldevelopment

Real-time monitoring
database

Geologic hazards andecological risk

Index weight based on expert
evaluation
Analytic
Hierarchy Process
Geologic hazards andecological risk assessment
model

Threshold of key parametersand expert evaluation system
Mechanism
exploration andsimulation
results analysis

Spatial analysis of land use
planning implemented byremote sensing image analysis

Fuzzy comprehensive
evaluation method

Ecological risk warning index system of the low hilly
mountain development

Geologic hazards and ecological risk warning monitoring systemof the low hilly mountain development

Work package #4
 Select the constrain index of
ecological sustainability,
quantize the standard of land
use planning and agriculturalland use Research on evaluation modeland technical method of
implementation of land use
planning and natural resource
management
 Evaluate the implementation
effect comprehensively,
provide regulating measuresand suggestions for the
optimization of land use

Monitoring data base of the geologic
hazards caused by theimplementation

Spatial analysis method

Statistical data of thesocio-economic dataof Dali city

Industrial land
use survey

Multi index evaluation

Land use planning of the Dalicity mountain development
Ecological and economic
benefits evaluation ofmountain development

Industrial land use of mountain
development standard
Model and method for theevaluation of land use planningof low hilly mountain
development

Land use planning assessment and optimizationsuggestion of Dali low hilly mountain development

Work package #5
Selection and monitoring key parameters of land use
planning for natural disaster relief and agriculturaldevelopment

Natural disaster relief and agricultural development for theregion with low mountains and hills of mild slope Thresholds of key parameters of natural disaster relief andagricultural development in the region with low mountains
and hills of mild slope
Land use planning and risk assessment in mountainous area
and regional optimal land use planning and measurement

Deng, X., J. Gibson, P. Wang, 2017. Relationship between
landscape diversity and crop production: a case study in theHebei Province of China based on multi-source data
integration, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 142, Part 2,985-992.
Deng, X., J. Gibson, P. Wang, 2017. Management of trade-offs
between cultivated land conversions and land productivity inShandong Province, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume142, Part 2, Pages 767-774.
Deng, X., J. Gibson, P. Wang, 2017. Quantitative
measurements of the interaction between net primary
productivity and livestock production in Qinghai Province
based on data fusion technique, Journal of Cleaner Production,
Volume 142, Part 2, Pages 758-766.
Deng, X., Z. Wang, C. Zhao, 2016. Economic Evolution in
China Ecologically Fragile Regions. 2016. Journal ofEconomic Surveys, 30(3): 552-576.
Deng, X., Z. Li, J. Gibson, 2016. A review on trade-off analysisof ecosystem services for sustainable land-use management,
Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7): 953-968.
Deng, X., J. Huang, S. Rozelle, et al., 2015. Impact ofurbanization on cultivated land changes in China. Land UsePolicy. 45, 1–7.
Deng, X., X. Bai, 2014. Sustainable urbanization in western
China, Environment, 56(3): 12-24.
……

Patent certification and software developed Computable General Equilibrium on Land Use Change (CGELUC) model Dynamics of Land System(DLS) model System Dynamics of Land Use Changes(SDLUC) model Areal Sampling Toolset (AST) Software estimation system for agricultural productivity(ESAP) model Spatial extrapolation Toolset (SET) software

Policy briefs and awards
Applications endorsed more than ten times, Researchawarded by prizes twice

Applications for decision makings at all levels

Outline of this talk
BackgroundFramework
An application
Development prospect

Promising applications for environmental protection
and sustainable development for nations/regions
Data Integration

Natural resources pattern
Economic pattern
Tourism industrial pattern
Ecological civilization mode
Regional economic integration modeTransportation economic belt mode
Development mode of international
tourism economic zone

Identification of the Interactions
between REE (Resource, Ecology and Technology cultural cooperation
Environment) &D (Development)
referring to the Platform

Promising applications for environmental protection
and sustainable development for nations/regions
Estimation of parameters
The evolution and driving

forces of landscape ofnations/regions
The spatial patterns and theinteractive mechanism ofagriculture and nature resource
management of nations/regions

Investigating and handling the conflictions
between development and conservationreferring to the Platform

Promising applications for the environmental protection
and sustainable development for nations/regions
Scenario designs
 Status of economic integration
 Strategic directions for theformation of ecology-oriented
investment policy on theterritories with environmental
 Strategy of the balanced regional
development in conditions ofnatural limitations
 International cooperation for
scientific data sharing in theTrans－boundary basin of lake
BaikalScenarios designs considering the enablers
as well as constrain for both naturalconservation and regional development

Promising applications for the environmental protection
and sustainable development for nations/regions
Decision-making Support System
Assessment of resource and environment carrying capacity and ecological service
functions of nations/regions around the sustainable development of agriculture.
Strategy of the balanced regional development in conditions of natural limitations


Software toolset
specifically developed
for tracing theCOOKED or VALVED
pressures with enhanced
development referringto the Platform

Demonstrations of the spatially explicit outcomes
Baseline scenario

Regional differentiated development
scenario

Fragile area restrict development scenario

Validation and Calibrations

Cultivated land
Built-up area
Open forest land
Grassland
Unused land
Brush wood
Water body
Forest land
Other woodlandObservedvalue
land
Observed
Other
CultivatedOpen
Grassland
Built-up
UnusedForestWater
forest 000
Brushwoodland
body
area
land
land
wood
111
Total

Predicted value
value
Predicted
Other
woodlandJudgmentaccuracy
accuracy
Open
CultivatedUnusedBuilt-up
Brush
Water
ForestGrassland
forest
wood
body
land
land
area
land
land
Judgment00
11100
17312
51315
142
133
2100
24084
9684
126
188
2500
52.99
64.13
68.06
41.43
45.65
0
1494
300
83.28
785
166074
99.53
27788
20634
2658
7241
5340
9921
797
163933112075165741159618159725156892
70826
98.40
80.13
77.44
99.52
95.66
96.76
94.05
99.76
75.69570.475
72.13
72.75
47.83
90.02
69.85

Concluding remarks…
 This kind of Platform is capable of offering spatial explicitly

decision support information for achieving the Win-Win
objectives of both agriculture and natural resource management.
 There is an urgent need to integrate geophysical process into

the socio-economic development, or vice versa, in this kind of
Platform which facilitates the so called Science Informs Policy;
 Prioritizedresearch themes on the agricultural and natural
resource management would be enhanced by developing andusing this kind of Platform via, last but the least, the data
integration, estimation of parameters, scenario designs, DSS
developments referring to this kind of Platform……

The most urgent research topics?
• Data, definition andclassification• Specific training on data
aggregation and/ordisaggregation over space
and/or over time
• Capacity building on
integrated modelling9th APGEOSS Symposium

Thanks for your attention!
Xiangzheng Deng
dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn