Networks “FitFit for Purpose”
PurposeTipping Point for IPv6?

Robert Pepper
Vice President
Global Technology Policy
23 February 2010
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

1

Agenda What’s changed in a year?
 Internet of Things is becoming real
 Mobile as a driver Networks “Fit for Purpose”
 IPv6 at the tipping point

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

2

My Conclusion Last Year:
Need to Create an Ecosystem for IPv6
 Network architecture and capability necessary
but not sufficient Capable devices
 Demand creating applications
 Dual stacks for indefinite interoperability
ttransitioniti
 Creating the ‘virtuous cycle’ feedback loop
 Need business case to deploy/adopt

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

3

What’s Changed?
The Internet of Things
is Becoming Real

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

4

Wh t’ Changed
What’sChd ini OneO Year?
Y?
 Theory becoming reality
 Smart Grid
 Smart buildings
 Sensor networks
 Wireless networks for devices, not just people Intelligent Transportation Systems
 Cloud and data centers Real bottom-up business case emerging
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

5

Smart Grid—Communicating
g for Management
gEnergy

Information

Distributed Generation Sources

Industrial Customer
Power Generation

Federated
Data Centers

Commercial Customer

Transmission(Utility)
Distribution(Local Utility)
Network
Control
CenterPepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

NetworkNet
ork
Control
CenterResidential Customer
6

“Commercial buildings waste up to one-thirdof all energy they consume.
consume ”

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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The Problem
Today’s Disparate Building Systems
PowerMeters
Electrical

HVAC

Lighting

Elevators
ITAccess
ControlUPS

TrashCompactor
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewable
RblSources8

Solution: Sustainable Energy Management
S
Smartt Buildings
B ildiconverging
i tot an Energy
E
Intranet
I tt
Lighting

PowerPowerMeter
HVAC

IT

Elevators

AccessControlUPS

TrashCompactor
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewable
Sources9Governments Connecting for Efficiency,
Cost Savings and Better Service
Public Works Hotspot

Indoor WirelessPPermitting
ittiElectronic
Citation

Assetsset
Tracking

VideoSurveillance

In-Vehicle
N tNetworkskPepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

City Hall Hotspot

MobileInspection

10

Mobile Driving Towards
an Exabyte World

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

11

Visual Networking Devices
Driving Mobile Data Growth – 2010 Mobile Device Comparisons=2 X(monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

Smartphone= 10 X((monthlyy basic mobile phonepdata traffic))

DigitalPhotoF
Frame= 10 X(monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

VideoCamera= 100 X(monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

MobilePhoneProjector= 300 X(monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

Laptop

1 300 X
= 1,300

E-reader(monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2009–2014
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Japan Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Mobile data traffic will increase 19X from 2009 to 2014
80% CAGR 2009–2014
350 PBper mo158 PBper mo84 PB
per mo40 PB
per moSource: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2009–2014
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Japan Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Devices
Mobile-ready portables -- 50% of mobile data traffic by 2014
80% CAGR 2009–2014
2009 2014

500

Smartphone450

Home Gateways
12%

400
00

Non-Smartphone
14%PB/m o350
Mobile-ready portables

300

28%

250
200
150

47%

100
500

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2009–2014
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Data and Media are Driving
JJapan’s’ Mobile
M bil InternetI tt
 In Japan…
 Annual mobile data traffic in 2014 (350 Petabytes) will be19X more than 2009
 Mobile data traffic is growing 2x faster than fixed data
 By 2014, each laptop will generate 7 GB of mobile
data/month vs. 1.6 GB/month in 2009
 Today, a handset generates 58 MB/month, in 2014, ah d t willhandset
ill generate
t 781 MB/MB/monthth A laptop on the mobile Internet generates 27X more data
t ffi thantraffic
th a handset
h d t
 548,000 hours of music are streamed to handsets each day 496,000 hours of video are streamed to handsets each day
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2009–2014
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Networksp“Fit for Purpose”

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Dimensions of Broadband Networks
 Bandwidth—”speed”
B d id h ”d”
 Latencyy
 Jitter Symmetry
 Bursting Mobility
 Other…

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Matching Applications toNetworks “Fit for Purpose”

Sensitiveto Latency

Low

Telepresence

Voice
Gaming(LD)
GridManagement

Gaming(HD)

Streaming
Audio

Streaming
VideoSensor Netw
works

HighDownload
Video

EmailLow

Pepper-02-2010-2

HD-IPTV
HDIPTV© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Bandwidth

Hi hHigh18

IP 6 att theIPv6th Tipping
Ti i P
Pointi t

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Connecting
g more things!
gHeal
thPepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Evolution of the Internet
17 Billion Devices 2012

20052008

50 billion devices byy 2015
One trillion communicatingdevices by 2020?
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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As Global Demand for Networked
People Resources and Devices Grows
People,Grows,
Resource Needs Grow
InternetPopulation

2006 - 1.1 billion users
2010 - 1.8 billion users

Mobile Networks

2008 - ~1 billion vehicles

M bil IInternet
Mobilett2010 – ~4B mobile phone users

Digital Appliances and Sensors

Billions off consumer,Billi
industrial appliances &sensors

4.28B = IPv4 physical address space
Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Towards 50 Billion Connected Devices
D l i vs. Uptake
Depletion
U k
IPv4 lifetime IANA Poolvs. IPv6 planned deployments
48

4032

24

16

80

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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IPv6
6 at tthee Tipping
pp g Pointo t% Adoption
100%

Or The Internet
Economy!

80%

60%
40%

20%

False Start ?
Lost Opportunities

0%

Pepper-02-2010-2

2006

2008

© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

2010

2012

2014

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Conclusions This Year
 Network architecture and capability necessary but notsufficient There are capable devices
 There are demand creating applications
 Dual stacks for indefinite interoperability transition arebeing deployed An ecosystem is being created for IPv6
 Number exhaust is no longer theoretical and off in future There is a business case to deploy/adopt
 2010/2011 will
ill beb th
the titipping
i point
i t ffor IPIPv6
6

Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Pepper-02-2010-2© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

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