Stepping- and Mile-stones ofMonitoring at Tomakomai
Kozo SatoThe University of Tokyo
Stanford University

Monitoring Techniques at Tomakomai
Monitoring
Purpose
Downhole
Pres./Temp.

current

long-term

Injection
Controls

Containment Conformance Environmental
Assurance
Assurance
Impacts

A

2D/3D SeismicO

A

A

A

OBC/OBSO

A

Surrounding
Seismometry
Water Column
ChemistryOA

Deep
ShallowAAO

Appropriate
Occasional
2

Tidal Signals in Pressure Transients
Sea Level

210.005

09.515:p: bh

0.122

0.004
0.003
0.002

1.20bh (m)9.51: bp: bh0.006

bp (MPa)p (MPa)

9.52

0.007

bh (m)

9.525(Sato and Horne: IJGGC 76, 2018)

30.0010<0.001

9.505
90

95

100 105 110 115 120
Time (days)

9597
98Time (days)

99

100

pR=⇢w g h<latexit sha1_base64="QTgx8dDNOmiEP4zz3X6QwPTP7OI=">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</latexit>

Resolution: 0.00005% FS
0.00001 MPa (0.00145 psi)

961

CO2 Saturation for Conformance Assurance<latexit sha1_base64="1phy/6p3gqrGAxsLxyprzlKKZWI=">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</latexit>

R = f (SCO2 , cw , cCO2 , cpp )
0.6
0.5
0.4
R

0.3
0.2
0.10
<0.1
<50050 100 150 200 250 300
Time (days)

Saturation Evaluation
without Well Intervention(Sato and Horne: IJGGC 76, 2018)

4

Monitoring Techniques at Tomakomai
Monitoring
Purpose
Downhole
Pres./Temp.

current

long-term

Injection
Controls

Containment Conformance Environmental
Assurance
Assurance
Impacts

A

2D/3D Seismic
OBC/OBSO

Surrounding
Seismometry
Water ColumnChemistryO

Deep
Shallow

OA

AA
Baseline
DefensiveAA
A

AO

Appropriate
Occasional
5Comprehensive Monitoring of Seismic Activity
OBC (3.6 km)

4 OBS

Surface S. + 4 Hi-net(JCCS: Summary Report on Tomakomai CCS Demonstration Project, 2020)

3 Monitoring Wells

6

Accumulation of “Defensive” Baselines
9 vs. 3 events> 6 km< M 0.52(JCCS: Summary Report on Tomakomai CCS Demonstration Project, 2020)7

Monitoring Techniques at Tomakomai
Monitoring
Purpose
Downhole
Pres./Temp.

current

long-term

Injection
Controls

Containment Conformance EnvironmentalAssuranceAssurance
Impacts

A

2D/3D SeismicOAA

A

OBC/OBSOASurrounding
Seismometry
Water Column
Chemistry

OADeep
ShallowBaseline
DefensiveAO

A

Appropriate
Occasional
8

Shallow Survey for Containment Assurance?
Partial 二酸化炭素分圧（μatm）
pressure of CO2 (pCO2 : μ atm)

95% Confidence Interval
One chance in 40
650

Former threshold

600（DO(％) above 100
is extrapolated）

550

Revised threshold

500
450

7 kt CO2400
350
300

Baseline: ● spring ♦ summer■ fall ▲ winterFY2016: ● spring ♦ summer ▲winterFY2017: ● spring ♦ summer ■fall ▲ winterFY2018: ● spring ♦ summer ■fall ▲ winterFY2019: ● spring ♦ summer ■fall250200
70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0

Dissolved溶存酸素飽和度（％）
oxygen saturation (DO: %)(JCCS: Summary Report on Tomakomai CCS Demonstration Project, 2020)

Project Suspension(6 months)
due to False Positive
Shallow properties “are allpart of open systems that areperturbed by many morethings than containment
failure.”(Jenkins et al.: IJGGC 40, 2015)

9M&V Reviewed and Revised: Quest to Peterhead
Baseline

Defensive

M&V plan reviewed
every 3 years“Measurements intended todetect unlikely hazards weredropped or relegated tobackup status.”“… shallow monitoring should
focus mainly on assuring
against environmental
impacts.”(Dean and Tucker: IJGGC 61, 2017)(Jenkins et al.: IJGGC 40, 2015)(Jenkins: IJGGC 100, 2020)10

Concluding Remarks (1)• Investigative Data Acquisition‣ Invariably measured pressure (with high resolution) was

successfully used for estimating CO2 saturation changes throughtidal-signal analyses.
‣ Comprehensive monitoring of seismicity provides sufficientevidence to dismiss the causal relationship between theTomakomai CCS and the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake.

11Concluding Remarks (2)• Overuse of Shallow Monitoring‣ Loose correlation between pCO2 and DO resulted in false positiveand eventually hindered the operation.
‣ A well-defined issue “containment” needs to be distinguishedfrom vague concerns “environmental impact.”
Monitoring
PurposeInjection
Controls

Containment
Assurance

Downhole
Pres./Temp.

AOAAA

2D/3D Seismic

Conformance Environmental
Assurance
Impacts

OBC/OBSOA

SurroundingSeismometry
Water Column
Chemistry

OAA

12