Modeling LCS to Identify
Trend-Breaking Options

脱温暖化
2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)
NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies)
COP12 and COP/MOP2 Side Event, “Global Challenges
Toward a Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Through Sustainable Development (SD)”
November 8, 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya

19781998 Himalayan GlaciersNorth Pole Ice in Sep.

Source: NASA

Back-casting from future target world

Mitigation
Technology
development

Required
3. We need
Policy“Trend Breaks”
intervention andInvestment
to realize visions

Checkingyear(2025)

Checkingyear(2015)

2000Back-casting

Long-term target year

requiredintervention policy
and measures

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

1.Target may
be tough

2020

Required intervention

Reference
futureworld

Forecasting

Release of
AIM result

Environmental pressure

Technology development,socio-economic change
projected by historicallytrend

2. We need
“Visions”

Normative
target world

50% reductions
2050 In the world

As for LCS visions, we prepared two
different but likely future societies
Vision A

Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Akemi Imagawa

2. We need “Visions”

Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050
PV on roof
3-4kW

LED light
66% reduction oflighting demand

Heat insulation
house
60% reduction ofheat demand

Super highefficiency airconditioner
Fuel cellcogeneration

COP=8for cooling
Environment
Education
Eco-life Navigation
10-20% reduction

HEMS (HomeEnergy
ManagementSystem)
10-20% reduction

3. We need “Trend Breaks”

Stand-by energy
reduction
33% reduction
Efficient use
New energy

Hot water supply
by heat pump or
solar heating
COP=5 for warming
Infrastructure
Eco-lifestyle

Top Runner Program: Efficiency Improvement-The “Top Runner Program” has-stimulated competition and innovation in the market,-diffused existing technologies, and-enhanced industrial competitiveness-It created “win-win” situation and virtuous cycle.
Fig: Energy efficiency of refrigerator
651.3

941.6

331.5

Overall electricity
consumption perrefrigerator (kWh)Annual electricity
consumption
per volume (kWh/L)

Internal cubic
volume (L)

1981

1991

3. We need “Trend Breaks”

2001(Source) JEMA (2002)

Projected energy efficiency improvement:
Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
9.0
MOE
COP (Coefficient of performance)

8.0
Historical

AIST

7.0
6.0

Best
METI

METI

5.0
4.0

Average

3.0
Worst
2.0
1.0

3. We need “Trend Breaks”

0.01995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

EnergysupplysectorEnergysupplymodel

Industrial
sectorHousehold Prd.
& lifestyle model
Residential energy
service model

Commercial energy
service model：Data flow

Investment
Efficiency

Stock
Production amountPassenger Trns.
demand model
Freight Trns.
demand model

Industrial
production model

Population
andhousehold
model：Model：Output of model

Preferenceof household

Population
Labor

Transportation
sectorServiceMaterial stock & flow model

Commercial
sectorEnvironmental option database, Bottom-up engineering model

Residential
sectorMacroeconomyActivity

Inter-sector and macro economic model

Stock
Building dynamic model

Energy supply& demand

EnergySnapshotTool

Energybalancetable

Check consistency!

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) for Japan LCS scenarios

Population by age

14050

8060-79
40-59
20-39
0-191008060
4040
Million3020102000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation demand by mode

1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2000

2005

2010

Aviation Pass.car

2015

2020

2025

2030

Maritime Railway

2035

2040

2045

2050

Walking & Bicycling

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2005

02015

020

2010

Population (Thousand)

120

Bus

Number of Dwelling by type60

W o o d e n d e ta c h e d

N o n - w o o d e n d e ta c h e d

W o o d e n a p a r tm e n t

N o n - w o o d e n a p a r tm e n tPossible trend-breaking options to achieve
70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan (Scenario A)
Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissions

Categoryamount*ResidentialEnergy supply

・Production efficiency improvement

EE・Increase rate of natural gas use

CI・Use of high insulation system
・Control of home energy system

SD・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater,lighting system

EE・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof

CI・Replacement of working/living place・Public transportation

SD・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles,
Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles

EECI・Nuclear energy
・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage
・CO2-free hydrogen supply

CI

41MtC

・Advanced fire plant + CCS
・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

CCS

30MtC

* CO2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000

23MtC

27MtC

ServiceDemand(SD)
40

16MtC
8MtC
21MtC
11MtC

EnergyEfficiency
(EE)
78

9MtC
30MtC
11MtC

CarbonIntensity(CI)
79

Supply side

Transportation

Activity

Demand sideSoci Industryety

・reduce raw material production
・decrease numbers of population/householdamountCCS
30

CCS: Carbon Capture StorageFactor decomposition of CO2 emission reduction
in 2050 Japan using Kaya Identity
E C′ CC = D× × ×
D E C′

C：CO2
C：CO2 emissionsemissions
D：Activity
D：Activity
E：Energy
E：Energy demanddemand

ΔC ΔD Δ( E / D) Δ(C ′ / E ) Δ(C / C ′)+ Cross=+++CD( E / D)(C ′ / E )(C / C ′)0%

Service demand improvement

D-20%

Fuel mix change in
Energy conversion

C/C'Total

-18%
-7%

2050 A
-30%

-30%
-14%

-60%

-28%

-80%
2050 B

vs 2000's

C'/E

-40%

-4%
-11%

Energy efficiency improvement
E/Din end-use sectors
Fuel mix change in end-use
sectors

C’：CO2C’：CO2 emissions
emissions(excluding(excluding energyenergy
conversion
conversion sector)
sector)-69%-73%

We support country-wise LCS modelingthrough SD for Asia-Pacific and the world- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1995 16-20 Oct 2006 at NIES

India

China

Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia Brazil

RussiaSouth Taiwan,
Africa China

USAJapanWe qualify and quantify possible future
LCS visions using AIM models
Vision A

Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Akemi Imagawa

crossDesigned by Hajime Sakai (airbox-pin@nyc.odn.ne.jp)