京都大学防災研究所年報 第 60 号 B 平成 29 年
DPRI Annuals, No. 60 B, 2017

Risk Assessment of Flash Floods in the Valley of the Kings, Egypt
Yusuke OGISO(1), Tetsuya SUMI, Sameh KANTOUSH, Mohammed SABER and
Mohammed ABDEL-FATTAH(1)(1) Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Synopsis
Flash floods unavoidably affect various archaeological sites in Egypt, throughincreased frequency and severity of extreme events. The Valley of the Kings (KV) is a
UNESCO World Heritage site with more than thirty opened tombs. Recently, most ofthese tombs have been damaged and inundated after 1994 flood. Therefore, KV mitigation
strategy has been proposed and implemented with low protection wall surrounding tombs.
The present study focuses on the evaluation and risk assessment of the current mitigation
measures especially under extreme flood events. Two dimensional hydrodynamic model
combined with rainfall runoff modeling by using TELEMAC-2D to simulate the present
situation without protection wall and determine the risk of 1994 flood. The results
revealed that the current mitigation measures are not efficient. Based on the simulation
scenarios, risk of flash floods is assessed, and the more efficient mitigation measurements
are proposed.
Keywords: Flash floods, The Valley of the Kings, TELEMAC-2D, Mitigation measures

1.

Introduction

Egypt is one of arid and semiarid Arabiancountries that faces flash floods in the coastal andNile wadi systems. Wadi is a dry riverbed that candischarge large water volumes after heavy rainfall.
Recently, flash floods are extensively occurred in
Egypt as shown in Table 1. There are manyarcheological heritages sites in Egypt, which havealso been exposed to the risk of flash floods. The
Valley of the Kings (KV) in Luxor is one of the mostwell-known and historical valuable heritages in theworld. KV has more than 30 open tombs and is visitedby many tourists as a tourist spot behind Giza withthe pyramid after it was registered to a UNESCOWorld Heritage site in 1979. Since the first tombs
were constructed, at least 24 historical flood events
have been identified, each of which has contributed
to the destruction and deterioration of the tombs.

Recently, most of these tombs have been damaged
and inundated after 1994 flood. In response to thisflood event, the American Research Center in Egypt(ARCE) hired an interdisciplinary team ofconsultants to prepare a flood-protection plan. The
consultants, known as the Valley of the Kings
Research Group (VOKRG), conducted research andanalysis of flood hazards and prepared a master planfor mitigating the impact of flash flooding. This
mitigation strategy has been proposed andimplemented with mainly low wall as a protection
around each tomb. However, the current mitigation
measurements were taken without enoughhydrological studies. Therefore, risk of the current
mitigation measures especially under extreme flood
events should be assessed based on the enoughhydrological study.
Based in the background, this paper shows thefollowing research topics.

― 864 ―

1)

2)
3)

reproduce the 1994 flash flood inundation
dynamics by using fully two-dimensional (2D)hydrodynamic model based on Saint-Venant
equations TELEMAC-2D
assess the risk of flood in the Valley of theKings with the existing protection strategy
propose efficient mitigation measures based on
future scenarios for extreme rainfall
Table 1 Historical data of flash floods in Egypt

Date

Affected Area

2016

South Sinai, Red
Sea, Sohag, Qena,
and Assuit)At least 17 dead,50 injured andhundreds ofhouses destroyed

2015

Sinai, Red Sea
regionRoad damages

2014

Taba, Sohag,
Aswan, Kom ombo

Dam failure at
Sohag, roaddamages

2013

South Sanai

2 death, roaddamage2012

W. Dahab,
Catherine area

Dam failure,
destroyed houses

2010

Along the Red
Sea coast, Aswan,
Sinai

12 death,
Damaged houses
and roads

2004

W. WatierRoad damage

1997

Safaga, El-Qusier

1996

Hurghada,
Alam

1994

Dhab, Sohage,
Qena, Safaga, ElQusier

2.

Marsa

Recorded
Damages

200 death, destroy
roods
demonstrated
houses damaged
vehiclesStudy area

2.1 Outline
Thebes (known as city of Luxor) including thevalley of Kings is one of the largest, richest, and bestknown archeological sites in the world. It lies about
900 km south of Cairo on the banks of the River Nile.
The Valley of the Kings (KV) consists of two subbasins, the huge West Bank wadi, and in the desert
west of the temples at Deir al-Bahari, called the East
Valley and West Valley. The former is the better

known because of the 60 tombs that have been foundthere. This study focuses on the East Valley (purple
location in Fig. 1). The study area is located on thewestern side of Luxor in the Upper Egypt from 25°75’
N to 25°80’ N and longitudes 32°56’ E to 32°65’ E(Fig. 1). The area is ungagged wadi with limited datafor rainfall and runoff. Post flood survey of 1994
events for the peak discharges and maximum
inundation depths were reported specially at thedownstream of the larger catchment. Therefore, alarger catchment area including KV basin has been
considered at the beginning as a target study area,
which is from 25°73’ N to 25°80’ N and longitudes
32°56’ E to 32°65’ E. The larger catchment area is20.3 km2 and the KV catchment area is 0.46 km2.
2.2 The valley of the Kings
KV served as the burial place of Egypt’s pharaohs
during the New Kingdom, from 1550 to 1070 BC.
During its five centuries of use, 62 tombs were dug
in KV. Each has been assigned a number; the first 22
were numbered by John Gardner Wilkinson in the
mid-1800s. Wilkinson’s scheme assigned numbers
geographically from the entrance of the Valley
southward and from west to east. Since then, tombs
have been numbered in order of their discovery, themost recent being KV 62 (King’s Valley tomb 62, thetomb of Tutankhamun, found by Howard Carter in1922).
KV is a small wadi cut by torrential rains anderosion during several pluvial periods in the
Pleistocene into a thick layer of limestone that lies
about a discontinuous stratum of Esna shale. The
Valley lies about 70 m above the level of the River
Nile (140 m above mean sea level), and theimmediately surrounding hills rise an average of 80
m above the valley floor. It was probably chosen as
the burial place of royalty because of its geology, its
relatively convenient access from the Nile floodplain,
and the pyramid-shaped mountain, “the Qurn”. Fig. 3
is the picture of main road of KV. Tombs andprotection walls like this picture. There are many
historical valuable decorations and coffins in tombs.

― 865 ―

Fig. 1 Location of the Valley of the Kings (KV)
study area and catchment basin

Fig. 4 The protective wall
2.3 Existing alleviation measures at the KV
The protection walls are set as the current
measures to alleviate the flash floods and protect
tombs to be inundated. The height of the walls is
ranging from 0.75 to 1.0 m. Fig. 5 shows the locationof walls and distribution of tombs. In this study, thenumber of tombs set to targets forty-nine.

Fig. 2 Tombs code and locations of tombs

Fig. 5 Locations map of protection walls and the
distribution of tomb3

Fig. 3 The valley of the Kings

Methodology

3.1 Daily Rainfall Analysis in Luxor
The Valley of the Kings is located in the western
desert with less rainfall intensity and frequencies inthe basin of the Nile River in Egypt. The previous
researches indicate the duration of the storm is about
more than 1 to 2 hours. Fig. 6 shows a decreased
tendency of the storms frequency, while the intensityof storms has an increasing tendency.

― 866 ―

Fig. 6 Histogram of measured maximum daily
rainfall at Luxor Airport (1941-2000)
Most of the storms are low intensity rainfall since
1994. However, intense rainfall storms are observedin the recent years due to the impacts of climatechange. Currently there is a possibility that a storm as
intense as or more intense than 1994 storm may comethat may lead to catastrophic consequences especiallyin such touristic areas. Previous research indicatesthat the rainfall intensity of the 1994 storm wasaround 16 mm/h during two hours. Fig. 7 presents the
Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves foravailable rainfall data (4). This represents the rainfall
intensity for the return period of 10, 50, 100, and 200
years, taking the duration of the storm on the x axis.
We use these to simulate the 1994 storm event atreturn periods of 50 and 100 years with two hours ofthe duration.

3.2 Rainfall-Runoff analysis
TELEMAC-2D (developed by edf) is based on 2Dmodel adopting a finite-element scheme based on
triangular elements over the non-structured grids.
The TELEMAC system is widely used to study
environmental processes in free surface transient
flows in two dimensions of horizontal space forvarious hydrodynamic modelling applications (dambreak, river flood etc.). The primary purpose is tosimulate the dynamics of flow in a water-body via thesolution of Shallow Water Equations .
The governing equations are:Continuity
(1)
𝜕ℎ
+𝑢
⃗ ⃗∇(ℎ) + ℎ. 𝑑𝑖𝑣(𝑢⃗ ) = 𝑆ℎ𝜕𝑡x-momentum
(2)
𝜕ℎ
𝜕𝑍
1
+𝑢
⃗ ⃗∇(ℎ) = −𝑔
+ 𝑆𝑥 + 𝑑𝑖𝑣(ℎ𝑣𝑡 ⃗∇𝑢)𝜕𝑡
𝜕𝑥ℎy-momentum
𝜕ℎ
𝜕𝑍
1
(3)
⃗ (ℎ) = −𝑔+𝑢⃗∇
+ 𝑆𝑦 + 𝑑𝑖𝑣(ℎ𝑣𝑡 ⃗∇𝑢)𝜕𝑡𝜕𝑦ℎWhere ℎ is the depth of water (m); 𝑢, 𝑣 are velocity
components (m/𝑠 2 ); Z is the free surface elevation(m); 𝑡 is ti+me (s); 𝑥, 𝑦 are horizontal spacecoordinates (m); 𝑆ℎ is the source of sink of fluid(m/s) and 𝑆𝑥 , 𝑆𝑦 are source or sink terms in dynamic
equation (m/𝑠 2 ) and ⃗∇ is divergence(1)

Fig. 7 IDF curves at different return period
predicted by Ashraf H
Table 2: Available observed data and predicted
stormsReturnPeriods
Rainfallintensity

1994
storm
16mm/h50 year22mm/h100
year
30mm/hModel development and topographic dataset
Topographical data used in this study is the
Digital Elevation Model (DEM), each cell of which
consists of information of the x- and y-coordinatesand elevation z. The entire modeling domain was
discretized using a system oh irregular triangularelements combining the mesh for the channel. The
mesh for the channel was created with a default edge
length of 3 m. The elevation z was assigned to nodes
on the mesh using the nearest neighborhood method.
The simulation implemented by TELEMAC-2D
was used to model the flood event from November
1994 in Luxor. The computational tome step was 36
seconds. Number of physical parameters are thebottom friction, turbulence model and diffusivity.
Strickler’s friction coefficient was used to model thefriction on the bed, which was assumed to be the same
throughout the entire computation domain.
The extreme storm event with 16mm/hour rainfall
intensity of duration of two hours was designed for― 867 ―

the KV modelling. The Blue Kenue software(Canadian Hydraulics Centre) was used to create themesh from DEM, define the boundary conditions andview the pose-processing data.
3.3 Model and Parameters Calibration(1)
Accuracy of digital elevation model
The topography data used in this study consists of
the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). DEM isconverted to triangular grid used in TELEMAC-2D
as topographic data. Fig. 8 illustrates two different
DEM accuracy, where the results are affected by such
resolution differences. It will lead to some impacts on
the wadi channel shitting, water movement and flood
accumulation in the modelling computation.
1) The simulated flow using DEM of 30 m is a little
away from the wadi channel where water willflow actually.
2) The longitudinal profile on the main channel wasquite different.
3) The simulated flow using DEM of 30 m had manymuch discontinuous flow.
The simulated flow and depressions weredifferent from the actual location because
topographic data was roughly supplemented when
DEM of 30 m was converted to Triangular grid of 5m. Therefore, high resolution DEM is required when
examining exact water distribution in small
watershed like this study.

DEM and cross sections. In 1994, there is no remotesensing data such as GSMap. According to the SCA
that took mitigation measures in this area, the peakwater depth in the 1994 flood event is known at two
points, which is 45 cm at the entrance of KV 10 and
2 m around the Carter house downstream. Moreover,Table 3 shows KV10, KV13 KV16, KV17 KV 34,
KV 35 and KV62 were flooded. Calibration is
performed flooded based on this information.
Parameters to be calibrated are the roughness
coefficient, the porosity, the runoff coefficient andhydraulic conductivity coefficient.
Table 4 shows the fixed parameters. When therunoff coefficient was 28.5, the water depth at theentrance of KV10 was about 35 cm, which was
almost same as actual water depth. Moreover, Fig. 10shows that KV 10, KV13 KV16, KV 17, KV34 KV35
and KV62 were flooded, which matched the fact in1994.
Table 3 The information about 1994 flood byRaphael A. J. Wüst
Nameof Tomb
KV10
KV13
KV16
KV17
KV34
KV35
KV62

Fig. 8 Case study areas visualized on coarse andfine resolution data
(2)

Setting parameters
In this area, there are few records of rainfall
intensity and floods such as discharge and water
depth, and topographic data such as high resolution― 868 ―

Inundation situation
Water depth was 45cm at theentrance
Water volume inside the tombis more than 360 m3
Water depth in the burial
chamber is 42 cm
Water volume in the tomb isabout 6 m3
Water volume in the shaft is
more than 90 m3
Water volume in the shaft is
more than 60 m3
Water depth is unknown

Table 4: Setup the model parameters
Main Parameters

Model

Mesh size
Calculation elements
Boundary conditions

3m
1128404
Open boundary
at the DS
70 m1/3s-1
10800 sec
0.1
90
1.0×10-6

Strickler coefficient
Duration
Porosity
Runoff coefficient
Hydraulicconductivity coefficientalso judged tombs are flooded in case the water depth
is not deep due to steep slope, but it is assumed thatthe water obviously enters tombs.
The tombs fifer in touristic value: i.e., some tombs
such as Tutankhamun are famous worldwide, somehave decoration and stone coffins with historicalvalue, some are accessible to tourists with economic
value, and others have less touristic value because oflacking information. Therefore, tombs should be
preferentially protected considering such value whenassessing the mitigation measurement.
Following four criteria were set as a method for
ranking the importance of tombs.
1- Number of publications about tombs
2- Number of visits by guides
3- Accessibility for tourists
4- Existence of decoration and stone coffin
Number of publications about tombs indicatescomprehensive value and name recognition. Numberof visits by guides indicates popularity with tourists,that is, economic value. Table 3 shows results of theevaluation survey on the tombs.
Publication index ( 𝑃𝑖1 ) and visits index ( 𝑃𝑖2 ) aredefined by the following formula using the original

Fig. 9 Water depth at the entrance of KV10

𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙(1)value of the index (𝑃𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙(2)and 𝑃𝑖𝑀𝑎𝑥(1)

the maximum in the original value ( 𝑃𝑖
𝑀𝑎𝑥(2)

𝑃𝑖

𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙(1)

𝑃𝑖

(4)

𝑀𝑎𝑥(1)

𝑃𝑖

𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙(2)𝑃𝑖2 =3.4 Method of Risk Assessment
Based on the simulation results of TELEMAC-2D,
it is judged whether tombs are flooded or not. The
standard of whether to be flooded or not is 30 cm or
more at the entrance to tombs. In addition to this, it isand) (i : tomb code).
𝑃𝑖1 =Fig. 10 The simulation result of the 1994 flood

) and

𝑃𝑖

(5)

𝑀𝑎𝑥(2)𝑃𝑖

The importance index (𝛿𝑖 ) is defined by the following
formula using publication index (𝑃𝑖1 ) and visits index(𝑃𝑖2 ).
(6)
𝛿𝑖 = 𝑃𝑖1 + 𝑃𝑖2
Fig. 11 shows the rank of the important of tombs.
From this, KV62, KV9, KV11 and KV17 should be
preferentially protected and are called important
tombs in this study from here.

― 869 ―

large difference in the distributions at one hour later,
but the distributions are almost the same at two andthree hours later although the rainfall in the 1994
flood is twice as intense as the rainfall of 100-year
return period. It is assumed that this is because thetopography of the valley is so steep that there is alimitation on the capacity where floodwater is stored
and it goes downstream when the capacity is full.
This indicates that even if the rainfall intensity isstronger, there is no big difference in the distributionof the water depth. Therefore, it is assumed that thesafety to risk of floods can be secured when tombs
are not damaged in the rainfall of 100-year return
period. Fig. 13 shows the hydrograph at the outlet in
the valley.

Fig. 11 Rank of the importance of tombs

4

Results and Discussions

The simulation was implemented in the area
focused on the Valley of the Kings, and Fig. 12 shows
the distribution of the water depth and flow patterns
along with the location of tombs with the red dots.
The lower left is upstream and the upper right isdownstream. The characteristic of the flood event inthis area is water running fast and reachingdownstream in a short time. Therefore, it is difficult
to take measurements to floods after it starts raining.
This is a characteristic of general flash floods and thisarea is particularly remarkable because this area issteep and runoff coefficient is high.

Fig. 12 Result of 1994 flood event on water depth andflow velocity
4.1 Scenarios with no Mitigation Measures
Fig. 22, 23 and 24 show the water depth
distribution of 30 cm or more in the rainfall of the1994 flood and the 100-year return period. There is a

Fig. 13 The hydrograph at the outlet of the Valley
4.2 Simulation with current mitigation strategies
The simulation of the current KV was
implemented by incorporating the walls into the mesh.
(1) Which important tombs are at protected fromhighest risk of damaging floods?
Table 5 shows whether the important tombs areflooded or not, and two of the four tombs were
flooded with the rainfall of 100-year return period,and others were flooded.
KV62 is surrounded by walls and the entrance is not
faced with flow and the shape of the wall is effective.
However, KV62 was flooded in the rainfall of 100year return period because water was stored in the
depression in front of KV62 and overflowed the wall.
KV9 don’t have the wall at the entrance and water
easily flowed into KV9. KV11 and KV17 were
protected by walls from floodwater because thedirection of walls was proper. Therefore, the two
tombs to be protected were flooded, which is the big
problem. KV62 is the tomb of Tutankhamun, one of― 870 ―

the most famous tombs in the world. KV9 has many
decorations in the tomb.
Table 5 Whether important tombs were flooded
KV62
Flooded by
100yr R.P.
flood

KV9
Floodedby 1994flood

Problem in
the height ofwall

Problem inthe shapeof wall

KV11
Not
flooded

KV17
NotfloodedProtected
by wallFig. 15 Inundation around walls of KV62

(2)

Effects and problem of the current mitigation
strategies
A detailed flow behavior and associatedinundation depth are presented for some of important
tombs as shown in Fig. 14 and 15. Fig.14 shows theflow from western side and southern side wasblocked by the wall of KV57. The water spill over thewall because the water depth of the flow fromsouthern side was higher than 1m. However, the tomb
KV57 was not flooded as the flow diverted and did
not reach to the tomb. KV58 was flooded heavily
because the water was stored due to the wall with badshape. This wall is a good example which shows
walls gave bad influence. Fig. 15 shows the wall of
KV62 prevented KV62 from being flooded. There
were three problems about the current mitigation
measures.
1)
Some of important tombs which should be
preferentially protected were flooded.
2)
Water stored in a depression were increasing
the risk of tombs flooded and can prevent workers
from restoring damaged tombs after the flood event.
3)
Tombs more than half of whole tombs were
flooded, which is big damage.

4.3 Propose Efficient Mitigation Scenario
Based on the simulation result of the current
mitigation measurement, the more efficient
mitigation measurements are proposed.
(1) Measures for protecting important tombs(additional wall)
Flooded important tombs was KV62 and KV9.
They should be protected preferentially because they
have more historical and economic value than othertombs.
1) KV62
The peak water depth around the wall with therainfall of 100-year return period is 1.4 m and thecurrent height of the wall is 1m. Therefore, it isconsidered that water can’t overflow the wall when
the height of the wall when the height of the wall is
raised by 50 cm.
2) KV9KV9 has no wall at the entrance, which faces thefloodwater flow. The wall should have the functionof blocking flow of floodwater in front of theentrance. Therefore, new wall was set like Fig. 16.
Fig. 17 shows that KV62 and KV9 were protectedwith the rainfall of 100-year return period

Fig. 16 New proposed measure (additional wall)Fig. 14 Inundation around walls of KV57 and KV 58― 871 ―

Fig. 17 The simulation result of proposed mitigation
measure (additional wall) in the rainfall of 100 R.P.
(2) Measures for fundamental resolution (Reshaping
wadi channel)
As mentioned before, it is problem that there aredepressions causing a rise of water depth andoverflow. Therefore, depressions should be
eliminated so that the water can flow downstreamsmoothly. Using Arc GIS, depressions were
eliminated. Fig. 18 shows the longitudinal profile ofmain channel. The simulation was conducted using
this filled topography.
Fig. 20 shows the water depth degreased andwater flowed downstream. As mentioned, rockforming tombs, Esna shale has the characteristic ofswelling as it is exposed to moisture. It is assumed
that this measure is effective because the amount ofwater infiltration will degrease. This simulation was
conducted by filling depressions, however it was notrealistic to fill depressions in the large area.
Therefore, it is assumed that the combination offilling depressions removing high land and setting
wall is needed.

Fig. 19 Location of the main wadi channel

Fig. 20 The result of the scenarios of filled depression
Fig. 21 shows number of flooded tombs among
different scenarios. From this, the number of flooded
tombs in the scenario with current mitigation measuredecreased a little compared with the scenario without
measure, which indicates the current measure iseffective to a certain extent. However, there are still
many flooded tombs in the rainfall of 100-year return
period. The number of flooded tombs in the scenario
with proposed mitigation measure decreased much. It
is assumed that this new measure is more effective.

Fig. 18 Longitudinal profile of the main wadi channel― 872 ―

Fig. 21 Difference of the number of flooded
tombs among scenarios simulated under different
rainfall intensity
5

Conclusion and Outlook

Flash floods unavoidably affect various
archaeological sites in Egypt, through increased
frequency and severity of extreme events. In thepresent study, the current measures of floods in theValley of the Kings, Egypt were assessed.
1)

Tools and methods for flash floods simulation
In the present study, TELEMAC-2D model wasused to capture the details of flow paths which arevery complex in the real world situations. The
dynamics of flow in a water-body via the solution of
Shallow Water Equations are simulated using
TELEMAC-2D. DEM data with 30 m and 5 m
resolution were used as topographical data. Throughthe simulation using them, it was revealed that highresolution DEM data has the clear advantage ofdescribing the ground surface in the Valley of theKing’s and fine mesh with 3 m has a better detailed
results. When using Hydrological River Basin
Environment Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM), is
one of the distributed models exact flow paths wasn’t
simulated because the depressions were filled. On theother hand, TELEMAC-2D was able to describe
discontinuities of the flow in the real world situations.
Moreover, since it can easily reshape bathymetry,
mitigation measures can be proposed and assessed.
From this, it can be concluded that TELEMAC-2D issuitable for simulating flash floods in such arid
environment after calibration and validation phases.
2)

Risk assessment of the Valley of the Kings
Through this study, the flood risk of each tomb inthe Valley of the Kings was revealed. Moreover, it
was confirmed whether important tombs withhistorical and economic value was flooded. Fiftynine percent of the whole tomb was flooded and theKV62 (Tutankhamun) and KV9 (Rameses VI) whichshould be most protected were flooded in thesimulation of the storm of 100-year return period. It
can be concluded that the current measures are notenough. From this, two following measures were
proposed.
1)- To rise the walls by 50cm.
2)- To fill the depressions by reshaping bathymetry.
The result of these simulations showed that theflood damage was reduced by about ten percent andimportant tombs were protected.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Dr. Riadh Ata for help in using
TELEMAC-2D. The present study would not havebeen possible without the cooperation andinvolvement of him. I would like to thank Raphael A.
J. Wüst for giving me precious data.
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― 873 ―

Appendix

Fig. 22 Area of water depth exceeding 30 cm
simulated for the flooded in 1994 (blue line) and forthat of 100-year return period (red line) at one hourlater from rain beginning

Fig. 24 Area of water depth exceeding 30 cm
simulated for the flooded in 1994 (blue line) and forthat of 100-year return period (red line) at three hourlater from rain beginning

Fig. 23 Area of water depth exceeding 30 cm
simulated for the flooded in 1994 (blue line) and forthat of 100-year return period (red line) at two hourlater from rain beginning― 874 ―

(Received June 13, 2017)