1Agenda 2016 UJNR Meeting, Napa, CA
Wednesday, 16 November 201608:30 Welcoming Remarks (Dr. William Leith, Mr. Masato Kano)

Session 1 National Policies, Strategies Programs, Networks, andongoing/upcoming Projects
08:45 William Leith “Update on the Earthquake Hazards Program”
09:00 Gerald Bawden “Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early WarningSystem”
09:15 Naoshi Hirata “Japanese earthquake researches for seismic and tsunami
disaster reduction”
09:30 Gerald Bawden “NISAR – NASA and ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar
Mission Overview of the mission and science objectives”
09:45 Elizabeth Cochran “The Path Towards Public Earthquake Early Warning for
the Western U.S.”
10:00 Morgan Moschetti “The 2014 Update of the U.S. National Seismic HazardModel”
10:15 Gavin Hayes “Recent advances in earthquake response and research at theUSGS NEIC”

10:30-10:45 BreakSession 2 The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence
10:45 Noriko Kamaya “The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake - Overview of the Seismic
Activity and New Guidelines for the Seismic Forecast Information after BigEarthquakes”
11:00 Masayuki Yoshimi “Strong ground motion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakeobserved in the midst of severely damaged area”
11:15 Norimitsu Nakata “Seismicity and structure responses following the 2016
Kumamoto earthquake”

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11:30 Takahiko Uchide “Fault model of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake inferredfrom hypocenter distribution and strong-motion records”
11:45 Tomokazu Kobayashi “Detailed ground surface displacement and fault
ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence revealed by SAR and GNSSdata”
12:00 Hiroshe Une “Small displacement surface linear ruptures of the 2016
Kumamoto earthquake sequence detected by ALOS-2 SAR interferometry”
12:15 Yuki Kodera “Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake:
Performance Evaluation of the Current System and the Next-Generation Methods of
the Japan Meteorological Agency”

12:30-13:30 lunch

Session 3 Earthquake Hazard Studies, Recurrence, and Mapping
13:30 Ned Field “A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform
California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational
Earthquake Forecast”
13:45 Jeanne Hardebeck “Operational Aftershock Forecasting for the United Statesand Globally”
14:00 Morgan Moschetti “Incorporating ground motions from 3-D earthquake
simulations into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model”
14:15 Kevin Milner “Supercycles and Synchronization Signatures in Synthetic
Seismic Sequences”
14:30 Nadia Lapusta “Possibility of large seismic slip on creeping fault segments anddeeper creeping fault extensions”
14:45 Yehuda Ben-Zion “Correlations between fault zone and earthquake properties
in the Southern California plate-boundary around the San Jacinto Fault Zone”
15:00 Tom Brocher “Evidence for Distributed Clockwise Rotation of the Crust in theNorthwestern United States from Fault Geometries and Earthquake Focal
Mechanisms”
15:15 Andrea Donellan “Shallow surface deformation observed with UAVSAR. What
are the implications for earthquake hazard?”

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15:30-15:45 BreakSession 4 Induced Seismicity
15:45 Donald Turcotte “Statistics and risk associated with induced seismicity at The
Geysers geothermal area, California and in Oklahoma”
16:00 Greg Beroza “Efficient Similarity-Based Earthquake Detection Applied to theOnset of the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas Sequence”
16:15 William Ellsworth “Managing the Hazard of Induced Earthquakes: Insightsfrom InSAR and Geology”
16:30 Sara Dougherty “LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO): Probing
injection-induced seismicity with a dense array “
16:45 Xinglin Lei “Increasing injection-induced seismicity in Asia”
17:15 Joern (Ole) Kaven “Induced seismicity insights from the Decatur, IL, CO2
sequestration project”

17:30-18:00 Poster session preview (2-3 minutes each)

18:00 Adjourn
18:30 Reception

Thursday 17 November, 2016

Session 5 Subduction Zone Science (note earlier start time)
Recent Initiatives (S-Net, DONET, ‘Ring of Fire’, Subduction Zone Observatory)
08:00 Makoto Matsubara “Estimation of seismic velocity structure beneath theocean using seismic stations offshore and on lands”
08:15 Jeanne Sauber-Rosenberg “GRACE and follow-on gravity
missions: Contributions to subduction zone science and prospects for the future”
08:30 Shin Aoi “Real-Time Tsunami Inundation Forecast System using S-net Data”

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08:45 Ryota Hino “Recent progress of seafloor geodetic monitoring in Japan”
09:00 Joan Gomberg “Advancing USGS Subduction Zone sciences”

Episodic Tremor and Slow Slip
09:15 Satoshi Itaba “Shallow Slow Slip Event Off Kii Peninsula, Japan”
09:30 David Shelly “Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: connecting fault
structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera,California earthquake swarm”
09:45 Makiko Ohtani “Interaction of SSE and brittle nucleation in simulated preseismic slip”

10:00-10:15 break

Session 5 Subduction Zone Science (continued)
Operational Forecasting and Early Warning Systems of Earthquakes and Tsunamis
10:15 John Rundle “GNSS Tsunami Early Warning: Status and Plans
10:30 Jessica Murray “Toward incorporation of real-time GNSS data in the West
Coast Earthquake Early Warning system”
10:45 Mitsuyuki Hoshiba “'Real-time prediction of ground shaking without source
information: Data assimilation and simulation of seismic wave propagation forEarthquake Early Warning”
11:00 Tom Jordan “CISM earthquake forecasting activities”
11:15 Anne Wein “Communication of aftershock information”
11:30 Richard Allen “Warning when it matters: Earthquakes and tsunamis aroundthe globe”
11:45 Sarah Minson “The Theoretical and Observational Limits of Earthquake EarlyWarning”
12:00 Ben Brooks “Internet of Things Earthquake Early Warning”

12:15-13:15 lunch

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13:15-14:15 Poster Session
Satoshi Annoura “Low frequency tremor near the Nankai trough axis, Japan”
Delphine Fitzenz “Bayesian combination of models for a data-driven approach toearthquake recurrence, for crustal or subduction sources”
Satoshi Kawamoto “The GEONET real-time analysis system for rapid finite faultmodeling”
Tomokazu Kobayashi “Earthquake rupture properties of the 2016 Kumamoto
Earthquake foreshocks (Mj 6.5 and Mj 6.4) revealed by conventional and multipleaperture InSAR”
Makoto Otsubo “Estimation of fluid volumes necessary for the fracturing around theseismogenic zone: Insights from the formation of mineral veins”
Natanya Porto “Alternative Segmentation Methods for Subduction Zones: An
Alaskan Megathrust Model”
Susan Schwartz “Regional and stress drop effects on aftershock productivity of large
megathrust earthquakes”
Emel Seyhan “Basin edge and depth effects on ground motion amplifications in theKanto Basin, Japan”
Yoshiki Shirahama “Surface ruptures associated with the 2016 Kumamoto
earthquake sequence, central Kyushu, Japan”
Masayuki Yoshimi “Earthquake Fatalities Mapping for the Eastern Asia Earthquake
and Volcanic Hazards Information Map”

Session 5 Subduction Zone Science (continued)
Probabilistic Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Estimation
14:15 Mark Simons “Inferring seafloor displacements during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki
earthquake with minimal prior information”
14:30 Thorne Lay “Northern Limit of Shallow Slip for 2011 Tohoku: Re-rupture of1896 Tsunami Earthquake Zone”
14:45 Bunichiro Shibazaki “Modeling deformation processes of the island arc crustand mantle during the interseismic and postseismic periods of the Tohoku-oki
earthquake”

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15:00 Guy Gelfenbaum “Using tsunami deposits to interpret tsunami wave andseafloor rupture characteristics: lessons from Japan applied to the Aleutians”
15:15 Masanobu Shishikura “Evaluation of variety in earthquake rupture along theNankai Trough deduced from paleoseismological data”
15:30 Quentin Bletery “Smooth megathrusts are more prone to mega-earthquakes”
15:45 Keisuke Ariyoshi “Modeling Research toward Earthquake Disaster Mitigationby using Japanese High Performance Computing Systems”

Real-time Seismic and Geodetic Monitoring and Seafloor Observations
16:00 Roland Burgmann “Transient Deformation and Stress From Enduring
Postseismic Deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake”
16:15 Meghan Miller “Subduction Zone Geodesy and UNAVCO Community ScienceResults”
16:30 Wayne Thatcher “New ways to look at active tectonic deformation of thewestern United States”

16:45 Group Photo

17:10 for those interested in group dinner, meet in hotel lobby
17:15 depart hotel
17:30 arrive at restaurant Morimoto for dinner~20:30 Return to hotel

Friday 18 November, 2016
Session 6 The South Napa Earthquake
09:00 Ken Hudnut “Fault Afterslip Forecast for the August 24, 2014, South Napa
Earthquake”
09:15 Jem Erdem “Ground-Motion Attenuation for the South Napa earthquake in the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California”

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09:30 Annemarie Baltay “Regional attenuation parameters in ground-motion
predictions: An example from the 2014 South Napa earthquake”
09:45 Margaret Glasscoe “Using Numerical Models to Investigate Distributed
Deformation — The South Napa Earthquake as a Case Study”

10:00 Presentation of the 11th UJNR Resolution
10:15 Concluding Remarks (Dr. William Leith, Mr. Masato Kano)

Field Trip to the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Earthquake Rupture Area
~10:45 Departure
12:00 lunch~17:00 Return to hotel