Proceedings of the Thirty-second (2022) International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference
Shanghai, China, June 5–10, 2022
Copyright © 2022 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)
ISBN 978-1-880653-81-4; ISSN 1098-6189

www.isope.org

Risk Assessment of Safe Return to Port for Large Cruise Ships in Fire Scenario Based on Grey System
Wei Liu, Ji Zeng, He Zhang, Hui Jiang, Xiang-yu FAN
Shanghai Maritime University
Shanghai, China

ABSTRACTa long voyage cycle and a long voyage, but also have more than tentimes more passengers than ordinary cruise ships. Once the fire orIn order to solve the problem of complex process and single

water-ingress accident occurs on the way, the cruise ship will be

experimental subject in the test of the ability of safe return to port forparalyzed and even sunk, which will pose a great threat to the safety oflarge cruise ships, a comprehensive evaluation method based on grey

passengers and crew.

system is developed to address the problem. To illustrate the proposed

The IMO (International Maritime Organization) therefore proposes anmethod, the risk of safe return to port in fire scenario of large cruise

idea that a ship can act as its own ' lifeboat ' when an accident occurs

ship is divided into four aspects: the ability of returning to port,

during navigation, and also proposes the concept of Safe Return to Port.

personnel quality, natural conditions and ship running state. The weight

The SRTP specification series mainly includes SOLAS Chapter II-1

of risk factors was assigned by combination of analytic hierarchy

Article 8-1, Chapter II-2 Article 21, Chapter II-2 Article 22, MSC. /process (AHP) and Entropy Weight Method for Group Decision

Circ.1369 Letter, etc. The specification defines the concepts of 'Making, and the grey cluster evaluation model based on triangular

accident boundary ', ' safety zone ' and ' orderly evacuation ', points out

whitening weight function in grey system theory was used to evaluate

the scope of application of relevant norms for SRTP, and requires thethe risk system.

ability to have after the ship accident, and puts forward the evaluation
criteria for key systems.

KEY WORDS safe return to port, fire, large cruise ships, risk

Although the International Maritime Organization (IMO) put forward

assessment, Grey System Theory

relevant requirements for SRTP as early as 2010, the research on this
aspect has not made great progress, and the combination of safe return

INTRODUCTION

with ship design and inspection is relatively scarce. (Xie, Li et al. 2020)
proposed the Gaussian polynomial chaos expansion method to analyze" Ship safety " has always been an important issue of concern to thethe evacuation time of ship safe return port under fire, quantified theshipping industry. Several adverse accidents at home and abroad have

uncertainty of passenger evacuation time in a main vertical zone, andcaused people to question ship safety. For example, on 28 December

determined the feasibility of safety factor given in SOLAS Convention.

2014, the fire on the lower deck of the ' Norman Atlantic ' ferry off the(Yang 2020)designed a valve remote control system that meets thecoast of Greece resulted in 11 deaths and 19 disappearances. Due to thespecification from the specification of SRPT, ensuring that the failure

development and expansion of the shipbuilding industry, the birth ofof valve control system in one cabin does not affect the normal use ofpolar cruises, the continuous expansion of the scale of luxury cruises,

other systems, and plays an important role in the design of ballast

the carrying capacity is also rising, but the maritime rescue capacity issystem and bilge water system. (Lu 2020) classifies the engine systems

very limited. Especially for large cruise ships, such ships not only haveof luxury cruise ships by analyzing the specification requirements,

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