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Proceedings of the Thirty-second (2022) International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference
Shanghai, China, June 5–10, 2022
Copyright © 2022 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)
ISBN 978-1-880653-81-4; ISSN 1098-6189

Study on the annual changing trend of Arctic sea ice melting for merchant shipping
Zhikang Wang, Jinfen Zhang, Da Wu

Intelligent Transportation Systems Center, Wuhan University of Technology; National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of Technology
Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

distance. In addition, because the Arctic waterway is less affected byunstable factors such as pirates, the cost of escort and insurance during
the voyage of ships will be significantly reduced. The opening of theArctic waterway will greatly change the pattern of world trade,
fundamentally changing the pattern of the economic circle around theArctic Ocean dominated by Russia, North America, Western Europe, andEast Asia.

ABSTRACTThe continuous melting of Arctic sea ice has attracted increasing interestin the potential of navigation in the Arctic route. Most existing studies
use the sea ice concentration (SIC) to evaluate the sea ice condition along
the route. Based on the historical sea ice data (including sea ice area) in
Arctic waters, this study investigated the annual sea ice changing trend
in Arctic waters, especially in summer. The overall Arctic sea ice area
has shown a decreasing trend with large interannual variability in the past
two decades. The navigable capacity of Sonnikov Strait follows theoverall ice change of Arctic waters. Nevertheless, the sea ice in
Vilikitsky Strait fluctuates wildly with significant uncertainty. Theresults can help merchant ships evaluate their navigation capacity inArctic waters.

1KEY WORDS: Northern Sea Route; Sea ice concentration; Seaice area; Navigation capacity
INTRODUCTION

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Due to the rapid economic development and the increase of humanactivities in the past century, global warming seems to be an inevitable
trend of the climate system. In the high latitudes of the northernhemisphere, the warming of the surface is more pronounced, leading toa rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice, which makes the "Northern Sea Route(NSR)" in the northern coastal area of Russia expected to be fully openedin the not-too-long future. The Arctic Northeast Passage Route starts
from Northeast Asia and passes through the Chukchi Sea, the Eastern
Siberian Sea, the Laptev Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Barents Sea in thesouthern Arctic Ocean to the north. The main sea areas and straits that
the NSR covers are present in Figure 1.
The reduction of Arctic sea ice area and even seasonally ice-freephenomenon will improve the navigability of the Arctic region. The
concept of Arctic waterways is becoming a reality. The Arctic Passage
consists of the NSR and the Western sea route (WSR). The NSR is from
Western Europe to the Bering Strait through the five sea areas of theArctic Ocean in Figure 1. The WSR departs from the Bering Strait andreaches North America and Canada, containing two branches. The Arctic
Passage has advantages compared with the Southern Passage through theStrait of Malacca, Suez Canal, or the Panama Canal in terms of economyand efficiency, saving approximately 20% and 40% of the entire voyage

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1Bering Strait

5

Yu‐gorskiy Shar StraitFig 1.

Sannikov Strait
63

Dmitry Laptev Strait

4Vilkitsky Strait

Kara Strait

Sea areas and Straits mainly passed by the NSR.

The volume of vessels and freight passing through the NSR has increased
rapidly. In 2020, there were 64 transit ships, of which bulk cargo andtugboats are among the main ship types, and the cargo transport volume
reached 1281 thousand tons. The past five years' total cargo volumes arepresent in Figure 2. It can be predicted that in the future, with thecontinuous development of the Arctic waterway, a larger amount ofcargo will be transported through the Northeast Arctic route, which willbring more economic benefits consequently. Meanwhile, thecomplicated navigation environment in the Polar Regions has brought
great challenges to ship navigation safety, and the risk assessment ofships sailing in the NSR is particularly important.

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