No. 56

Spring 2019
Contents

Page

Launch of the new JMA's One-month Guidance Tool

1

Incorporation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought monitoring into the2

ClimatView tool
El Niño Outlook (June – December 2019)3

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 20195

Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2019 in Japan

7

Summary of the 2018/2019 Asian Winter Monsoon

8

TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia

14

JMA Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events: collaboration between research and operation15

in Japan to provide useful climate services

Launch of the new JMA's One-month Guidance Tool
TCC has launched a new interactive tool enabling the generation of statistical guidance for station points in support ofoperational seasonal forecasts covering periods of a monthor less. This handy resource is in the form of a web-based
application accessed via a browser on the TCC website at:https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html (see the bottom of the "One-month Prediction"section)https://extreme.kishou.go.jp/cgibin/simple_guidance/index.cgi (for the password
required, see the bottom of this article).

As the tool provides forecasts and related materials, access is exclusive to National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) staff. To gain access, email TCC(tcc@met.kishou.go.jp) stating your 1) name, 2) affiliation,3) email address and 4) purpose of use. The tool is currently
operated on an experimental basis and, despite TCC’s dedication to its development, may be changed or service may
be suspended without notice in the event of malfunction orother issues. Your understanding in this regard is appreciated.

The user simply provides past observation data to create
guidance forecasting. Past and real-time forecast data from
JMA's ensemble prediction system are stored on the application side. The following figures and data for the selected
forecast period are automatically created and displayed on
the screen (Figure 1) after interactive parameter settings (initial day, forecast periods and predictor elements (Figure 2))
and background calculation:
Tercile probability map
Figure(s) on tercile probability (color bars) at station(s)Inter-annual time-series representation of tercile probability
Diagram showing reliability and forecast frequency
The CSV-format data file used to create the above
For more details and system specifications, see the online
help page at:https://extreme.kishou.go.jp/tool/simple_guidance/help/(tool commentary).
Forecast datasets are updated every Thursday.

TCC News

Figure 1 Examples of simple guidance tool output

1

No. 56 | Spring 2019We expect that this tool is useful for issuing seasonal
forecast for one-month or less in terms of simply generating
statistical guidance. TCC welcomes your comments/suggestions so that the tool will be further improved for use atrespective NMHSs.
(Yasushi Mochizuki, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 2 Parameter setting section<< Table of contents

Incorporation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for
drought monitoring into the ClimatView tool-

TCC began providing worldwide drought monitoring information via its interactive online ClimatView tool in March 2019to assist National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs) in their monitoring of current and historical drought
statuses.

-

Time-series graphs (Figure 4) with corresponding
data tables and downloadable CSV files
Regional listings
Printable figures

Calculation of the SPI values shown in the tool is basedon monthly precipitation totals from CLIMAT data forstates worldwide and on Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data provided by the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Centers
for Environmental Information. TCC uses the SPI calculation program provided by Colorado State University in theUSA. See the commentary webpage for an outline of the SPI
and more details on data and methods.

For this resource, TCC uses Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) data as a measure of the degree of prolonged
rainfall deficit. The tool displays SPI values for periods of
3, 6 and 12 months to help users quantify precipitation deficits on multiple timescales. This detailed drought information can be accessed on the TCC website athttps://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatvie
w/frame.php (main page)https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatvie
w/spi_commentary.html (SPI commentary)

We expect that this handy tool is useful for monitoring
current and historical drought conditions. TCC welcomes
your comments/suggestions so that the tool will be further
improved for use at respective NMHSs.

The tool shows SPI values covering the period from June
1982 to the present in the following formats:Geographical distribution maps (global and regional, Figure 3)(Yasushi Mochizuki, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 3 Geographical distribution map (global)

Figure 4 Time-series graphNote) SPI values are not calculated if the available historical data
span is shorter than 30 years.

<< Table of contents

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

El Niño Outlook (June – December 2019)
The El Niño conditions observed in the equatorial Pacificsince boreal autumn 2018 are likely (70%) to continue until boreal summer. The likelihood of El Niño conditions continuing
until boreal autumn (60%) is higher than that of ENSO-neutral
conditions returning (40%). (Article based on the El Niño outlook issued on 10 June 2019.)

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific(NINO.WEST) region was near normal in May. The value
is likely to be near normal from boreal summer to autumn.
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean(IOBW) region was above normal in May. The value islikely to be above or near normal from boreal summer toautumn.

El Niño/La Niña
The NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.6°C in May. SSTs wereabove normal in most of the equatorial Pacific except the areaaround Indonesia (Figures 5 and 7 (a)), and subsurface temperatures were above normal mainly in the central part (Figures 6 and 7 (b)). Atmospheric convective activity near thedate line over the equatorial Pacific was above normal, andeasterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over thecentral equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal. Based onthese factors, the El Niño conditions observed in the equatorial Pacific since boreal autumn 2018 are considered to remain ongoing.
The subsurface warm waters, which were observed mainlyin the central equatorial Pacific, are expected to migrate eastward and to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in
the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggeststhat the NINO.3 SST will be above or near normal from boreal summer to autumn, while uncertainties in model prediction are large (Figure 8). Based on this prediction and the observations described above, there is considered to be a 70%
probability that the five-month running mean NINO.3 SST in
early boreal summer will be +0.5°C or above and a 60% probability that this value in early boreal autumn will be +0.5°C
or above (Figure 9). In conclusion, the El Niño conditions arelikely (70%) to continue until boreal summer. The likelihoodof El Niño conditions continuing until boreal autumn (60%)
is higher than that of ENSO-neutral conditions returning(40%).

(Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Tokyo Climate Center)* The SST normal for the NINO.3 region (5°S – 5°N,
150°W – 90°W) is defined as an monthly average over thelatest sliding 30-year period (1989-2018 for this year).
* The SST normals for the NINO.WEST region (Eq. –15°N, 130°E – 150°E) and the IOBW region (20°S – 20°N,
40°E – 100°E) are defined as linear extrapolations with respect to the latest sliding 30-year period, in order to remove
the effects of significant long-term warming trends observed in these regions.

(a)

(a)

(b)

(b)

Figure 5 Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures(SSTs) and (b) SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific
Ocean areas for May 2019
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). Thebase period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 6 Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sections of (a) temperatures and (b) temperature anomalies in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean areas for May 2019
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). Thebase period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

(a)

(b)

Figure 7 Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and (b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in
the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas
OHCs are defined here as vertical averaged temperatures in the top 300 m. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 8 Outlook of NINO.3 SST deviation produced by the El Niño prediction modelThis figure shows a time series of monthly NINO.3 SST deviations. The thick line with closed circles shows observed SST
deviations, and the boxes show the values produced for up to six months ahead by the El Niño prediction model. Each box
denotes the range into which the SST deviation is expected to fall with a probability of 70%.

Figure 9 ENSO forecast probabilities based on the El Niño prediction model
Red, yellow and blue bars indicate probabilities that the five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation from thelatest sliding 30-year mean will be +0.5°C or above (El Niño), between +0.4 and -0.4°C (ENSO-neutral) and -0.5°C or below(La Niña), respectively. Regular text indicates past months, and bold text indicates current and future months.
<< Table of contents

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2019
Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system, sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies are expected to be
above normal in the equatorial Pacific during boreal summer
2019, suggesting El Niño conditions. In association, active
convection is expected over the equatorial Pacific, while inactive convection is expected over the Maritime Continent.
Focusing on Asia, precipitation amounts are expected to be
above normal in and around the equatorial Indian Ocean and
the South China Sea and below normal in Indonesia andSouth Asia.

(a)

(b)

1.

Introduction
This article outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble
prediction for boreal summer 2019 (June – August, referred
to as JJA), which was used as a basis for JMA’s operational
warm-season outlook issued on 24 May 2019. The outlook
is based on the seasonal ensemble prediction system of the
Coupled Atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model(CGCM). See the column below for system details.
Section 2 outlines global SST anomaly predictions, andthe associated circulation field predictions for the tropics
and sub-tropics are described in Section 3. In Section 4, thecirculation fields expected for the mid- and high-latitudes of
the Northern Hemisphere are discussed.

(c)

2.

SST anomalies (Figure 10)
Figure 10 shows predicted SSTs (contours) and related
anomalies (shading) for JJA. Above-normal anomalies are
expected in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, suggesting El Niño conditions. Near- or below-normal SST
anomalies are expected in the south-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and above-normal SST conditions are expectedin the western Indian Ocean, potentially suggesting positive
IOD-like conditions.

(d)

3.

Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics (Figure
11)
Figure 11 (a) shows predicted precipitation (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) for JJA. In association with
El Niño conditions, above-normal anomalies are expected
over the equatorial Pacific and in/around the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, while belownormal anomalies are expected in Indonesia and South Asia.
Figure 11 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N –60°S for June–August 2019 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The
contour interval is 2 mm/day.
(b) Velocity potential at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 2 × 106 m2/s.
(c) Stream function at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 16 × 106 m2/s.
(d) Stream function at 850 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.
Figure 10 Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST anomalies (shading) for June–August 2019 (ensemble mean of
51 members)

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

Figure 11 (b) shows predicted velocity potential (contours) and related anomalies (shading) at the upper troposphere (200 hPa) for JJA. In association with El Niño conditions, negative (i.e., divergent) anomalies are expected
over the eastern Pacific, while positive (i.e., convergent)anomalies are expected over the Maritime Continent. Negative (i.e., divergent) anomalies are also expected over thewestern Indian Ocean, potentially in association with positive IOD-like conditions.
Figure 11 (c) shows predicted stream functions (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) at the upper troposphere(200 hPa) for JJA. Negative (i.e., cyclonic) anomalies are
expected over Eurasia, indicating a weaker-than-normal Tibetan High and a southward-shifting tendency for the subtropical jet stream. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns
have frequently been observed during past El Niño events.
Figure 11 (d) shows predicted stream functions (contours) and related anomalies (shading) at the lower troposphere (850 hPa) for JJA. Equatorial symmetric cyclonicanomalies are expected over the western-to-central Pacificin association with active convection over the Pacific, while
equatorial symmetric anti-cyclonic anomalies are predicted
in association with inactive convection over the Maritime
Continent.

(a)

(b)

4. Prediction for the mid- and high- latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere
Figure 12 (a) shows predicted geopotential heights (contours) and related anomalies (shading) at 500 hPa for JJA.
Positive anomalies are predicted over most of the Northern
Hemisphere in association with global warming trends andEl Niño conditions. However, relative negative anomalies
are expected over the North Pacific in association with positive PNA-like teleconnection, which is a phenomenon frequently observed during past El Niño events.
Figure 12 (b) shows predicted sea level pressure (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for JJA. As with geopotential height, negative anomalies are expected over the
North Pacific.

Figures 12 Predicted atmospheric fields from 20°N –90°N for June–August 2019 (ensemble mean of 51
members)(a) Geopotential height at 500 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 60 m.
(b) Sea level pressure (contours) and anomaly (shading).
The contour interval is 4 hPa.
<< Table of contents(Takuya Komori, Tokyo Climate Center)

JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation
Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range. The EPS produces perturbed initial conditions by means of a combination of the initial perturbation method and the lagged average forecasting (LAF) method.
The prediction is made using 51 members from the latest four initial dates (13 members are run every 5 days). Details of
the prediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments (1981–2010) are available at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2019 in JapanJMA issued warm season outlook for the coming summer(June – August) over Japan in February and updated it on 24
May. This article outlines the update.
1. Outlook summary (Figure 13)
 Seasonal mean temperatures are expected to be nearnormal over mainland Japan.
 Seasonal precipitation amounts are expected to exhibit
an above-normal tendency over mainland Japan.
2. Outlook backgroundFigure 14 summarizes expected large-scale oceanic/atmospheric characteristics for the coming summer. The
grounds for the outlook are given below.












El Niño conditions are likely to continue until summer,
suggesting that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will be
above normal over the central-to-eastern Pacific.
Convective activity is expected to be enhanced over theequatorial central Pacific and suppressed over the Asianmonsoon region in association with the SST anomaly
pattern.
In the upper troposphere, the subtropical jet stream over
Asia is expected to exhibit a southward shift, and thenorthward extension of the Tibetan High is expected to
be weaker than normal due to an inactive Asian monsoon.
In the lower troposphere, the North Pacific High is expected to be stronger than normal to the south of Japan,
while its extension toward Japan is expected to be
weaker as a manifestation of the negative Pacific-Japan(PJ) pattern.
This pattern is expected to bring humid air along thehigh into the country, and a tendency for wet and rainy
mid-summer conditions, rather than hot and sunny
weather, is expected.
Overall temperatures in the troposphere are expected to
be above normal due to the prevailing long-term increasing trend. These tendencies are likely to decrease
the chance of below-normal temperatures.

Figure 13 Outlook for summer 2019 temperature (top)and precipitation (bottom) probability in Japan(Hiroshi Ohno, Tokyo Climate Center)

The equator

Figure 14 Conceptual diagram showing expected largescale ocean/atmosphere characteristics for summer 2019<< Table of contents

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Summary of the 2018/2019 Asian Winter Monsoon
This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface
climate and atmospheric/oceanographic considerations related to the Asian winter monsoon for 2018/2019.

around southern and western parts of East Asia and thenorthwestern part of Southeast Asia, and were below normal in the northeastern part of East Asia (Figure 16). Drierthan-normal conditions in and around the Philippines andwarmer-than-normal conditions in and around Southeast
Asia, as seen in typical anomaly patterns of past El Niño
events, were observed around February.

Note: The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55; Kobayashi etal., 2015) atmospheric circulation data and COBE-SST (Ishii etal., 2005) sea surface temperature (SST) data were used for thisinvestigation. NOAA Interpolated Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR) data (Liebmann and Smith 1996) provided online by the
U.S. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) at
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ was referenced to infer tropicalconvective activity. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.
The term “anomaly” as used in this report refers to deviation fromthe normal.

Figure 17 shows the extreme climate conditions observed between December 2018 and February 2019. In December, extremely high temperatures were seen from the
Okinawa region of Japan to Southeast Asia, and extremely
low temperatures were seen in the northwestern part of East
Asia. Extremely high precipitation amounts were observed
from western Japan to eastern China and from Myanmar tonorthwestern Sumatra. In January, extremely high temperatures were seen from northeastern China to the southernpart of Central Siberia and from southern China to the central part of Southeast Asia. Extremely high precipitation
amounts were observed from southern China to western
Thailand, and extremely low precipitation amounts wereobserved from northern Japan to the southern Korean Peninsula. In February, extremely high temperatures were seenfrom the Ogasawara Islands of Japan to southern China andfrom the central part of Southeast Asia to the southern partof South Asia.

1. Surface climate conditions
Temperatures for December 2018 to February 2019 weregenerally above normal from the eastern part of East Asia
to the southern part of South Asia, and were below normal
in and around the northwestern part of East Asia (Figure15). In particular, seasonal mean temperatures were extremely high from the Okinawa/Amami region of Japan tosouthern China and from the central part of Southeast Asia
to the southern part of South Asia, and were extremely low
from western Mongolia to northwestern China. Precipitation amounts during this period were above normal in and

Figure 15 (a) Three-month mean temperature anomalies for December 2018 to February 2019, and monthly
mean temperature anomalies for (b) December 2018, (c) January 2019 and (d) February 2019
Categories are defined by the three-month/monthly mean temperature anomaly against the normal divided by its
standard deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are -1.28, -0.44, 0, +0.44
and +1.28. Standard deviations were calculated from 1981 - 2010 statistics. Areas over land without graphical marks
are those where observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

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Figure 16 Three-month total precipitation ratio for December 2018 to February 2019, and monthly total precipitation ratio for (b) December 2018, (c) January 2019 and (d) February 2019
Categories are defined by the three-month mean precipitation ratio against the normal and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes.
The thresholds of each category are 70, 100 and 120%. Areas over land without graphical marks are those where observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

Figure 17 Extreme climate stations for (a) December 2018, (b) January 2019 and (c) February 2019
ΔT, SD and Rd indicate temperature anomaly, standard deviation and quintile, respectively.

In the upper troposphere, large-scale divergent anomalies were seen over areas near the date line in association
with enhanced convective activity, and convergent anomalies were observed over the Maritime Continent (Figure 20(a)). In the 200-hPa stream function field, cyclonic circulation anomalies straddling the equator were seen over the
Maritime Continent. A wave train was seen along the subtropical jet stream, with cyclonic circulation anomalies
over northern India and anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies
over the Middle East and the East China Sea (Figure 20(b)). In the lower troposphere, cyclonic circulation anomalies straddling the equator were seen from west of the dateline to the central Pacific, and anti-cyclonic circulation
anomalies were seen around the Philippines (Figure 20 (c)).
The active phase of equatorial intraseasonal oscillation
propagated eastward globally during winter 2018/2019 except in early February (Figure 21).

2. Characteristic atmospheric circulation and oceanographic conditions
2.1 Conditions in the tropics
The El Niño conditions that developed in boreal autumn
2018 continued during winter 2018/2019. Positive SST
anomalies were observed over almost the whole of theequatorial Pacific and in the equatorial Indian Ocean. In the
North Pacific, remarkably positive SST anomalies were observed from the South China Sea to the central part (Figure
18).
Convective activity inferred from OLR during this period was enhanced to the west of the date line and suppressed from the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean to the
Maritime Continent and around the Philippines (Figure 19).
Over the Indochina Peninsula and the Malay Peninsula,where precipitation amounts during this period were above
normal (Figure 16 (a)), convective activity was enhancedin December and January.

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Figure 18 Three-month mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies [˚C] for December 2018 to February
2019
The contour interval is 0.5˚C.

Figure 19 Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies [W/m2] (a) averaged over the three months from
December 2018 to February 2019, for (b) December 2018, (c) January 2019 and (d) February 2019
The blue and red shading indicates areas of enhanced and suppressed convective activity, respectively.

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Figure 20 Three-month mean (a) 200-hPa velocity potential, (b) 200-hPa stream function, and (c) 850-hPa
stream function for December 2018 to February 2019 [unit: 106 m2/s](a) The contours indicate velocity potential at intervals of 2 × 10 6 m2/s, and the shading shows velocity potential
anomalies. D and C indicate the bottom and the peak of velocity potential, corresponding to the centers of large-scale
divergence and convergence, respectively (b, c). The contours indicate stream function at intervals of (b) 10 and (c)2.5 × 106 m2/s, and the shading shows stream function anomalies. H and L denote the centers of anticyclonic andcyclonic circulations, respectively.

Figure 21 Time-longitude cross section of seven-day running mean (a) 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies[106 m2/s] and (b) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies [W/m2] around the equator (5°S – 5°N) for
October 2018 to March 2019(a) The blue and red shading indicates areas of divergence and convergence anomalies, respectively. (b) The blue
and red shading indicates areas of enhanced and suppressed convective activity, respectively.

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2.2 Conditions in the extratropics
In the 500-hPa height field during winter 2018/2019, thepolar vortex was centered near the North Pole and over the
Kamchatka Peninsula. A wave train was seen over mid-latitudes with positive anomalies from eastern China to theseas east of Japan, and negative anomalies were seen fromthe western part of East Asia to the northern part of South
Asia (Figure 22 (a)). Zonally elongated positive anomalies
were seen from Japan to the area east of the country in December and February (Figure 22 (b), (d)).
The subtropical jet stream from North Africa to Eurasia
meandered. The westerly jet stream shifted northward of its
normal position from eastern China to Japan (Figure 23(a)). Temperatures at 850 hPa (Figure 23 (b)) were above
normal from southern China to the seas south of Japan, andwere below normal over the northwestern part of East Asia.
In the sea level pressure field (Figure 24), negative
anomalies were seen near the Kamchatka Peninsulathroughout the period, indicating a northwestward shift of
Aleutian Low activity. The Siberian High was stronger thannormal over its normal position, and its eastward extension
was weaker than normal. Positive anomalies were seenfrom Japan to the area east of the country in December andFebruary.
(Hitoshi Sato, Tokyo Climate Center)

References
Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto and T. Matsumoto,2005: Objective Analyses of Sea-Surface Temperature andMarine Meteorological Variables for the 20th Century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection. Int. J. Climatol., 25,
865-879.
Kobayashi, S., Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya,
H. Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo,
K. Miyaoka, and K. Takahashi, 2015: The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics. J.
Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 93, 5 – 48.
Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of acomplete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275–1277.

Figure 22 500-hPa height [m] (a) averaged
over the three months from December 2018 to
February 2019, for (b) December 2018, (c)January 2019 and (d) February 2019
The contours indicate 500-hPa height at intervalsof 60 m, and the shading denotes anomalies. H
and L indicate the peak and bottom of 500-hPa
height, respectively, and + (plus) and – (minus)
show the peak and bottom of anomalies, respectively.

Figure 23 Three-month mean (a) 200-hPa
wind speed and vectors [m/s] and (b) 850-hPa
temperature [˚C] for December 2018 to February 2019(a) The black lines show wind speed at intervalsof 20 m/s, and the brown lines show its normal atintervals of 40 m/s. (b) The contours indicate
850-hPa temperature at intervals of 4 ˚C and theshading shows related anomalies.

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Figure 24 Sea level pressure [hPa] (a) averaged over the three months from December
2018 to February 2019, for (b) December 2018,(c) January 2019 and (d) February 2019
The contours indicate sea level pressure at intervals of 4 hPa, and the shading shows related
anomalies. H and L indicate the centers of highand low pressure systems, respectively, and +(plus) and – (minus) show the peak and bottomof sea level pressure anomalies, respectively.

<< Table of contents

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TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) bring together national, regional and international climate experts on
an operational basis to produce regional climate outlooks
based on input from participating NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centers and global producers of climate predictions. By providing a platform for countries withsimilar climatological characteristics to discuss related matters, these forums ensure consistency in terms of access toand interpretation of climate information. In spring 2019, TCC
experts participated in two RCOFs in Asia.

The forum was supported by the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO), the Regional Climate Center (RCC)
Pune of India Meteorological Department (IMD), UK Met
Office (UKMO), and the Regional Integrated Multi-hazard
Early-warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) withfunding from the Asia – Regional Resilience to Changing
Climate (ARRCC) program based on UKMO and RIMES
collaboration. Attendees discussed the climatic conditionsof the upcoming summer monsoon season, which lasts from
June to September.
As part of the activities of WMO’s World MeteorologicalCentre (WMC), an expert from WMC Tokyo provided asummer monsoon season outlook based on JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble prediction system, with probabilistic
information on atmospheric variability and the evolution of
conditions in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean areas.
The provision of this information was intended to support
the output of country-scale outlooks by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asiaand contribute to the summarizing a consensus outlook forSouth Asia.
The forum placed particular emphasis on the Climate Services User Forum (CSUF) with focus on the water and agriculture sectors based on the sharing of information with user
sectors to support discussion of their experiences of using
climatic services. The WMC Tokyo expert was also involved in the active discussion to promote better use of climate services through future SASCOF activities.

1. FOCRA II
The first RCOF was held at the 15th session of the Forumon Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (FOCRA II) in Nanning,
China, from 8 to 10 May. At the event, experts from about
20 countries/territories made presentations in six sessions
featuring talks by invited lecturers and other oral presentations. TCC attendees gave two presentations outlining thecharacteristics of the last winter monsoon and the outlook
for this summer based on JMA’s seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The presentations contributed to discussions on a consensus outlook for the coming summer.
2. SASCOF
The Government of Nepal’s Department of Hydrology
and Meteorology (DHM) hosted the 14th summer session of
the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-14) and
the Pre-COF Training Workshop from 18 to 23 April 2019
in Kathmandu, Nepal.

(FOCRA II: Akira Ito and Masashi Sumitomo,
SASCOF-14: Takuya Komori, Tokyo Climate Center)

Akira Ito presenting seasonal forecast for this summer (left) and Masashi Sumitomo presenting characteristics of the last
winter monsoon (right) at FOCRA II.
<< Table of contents

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No. 56 | Spring 2019

JMA Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events: collaboration between
research and operation in Japan to provide useful climate services
The Future of Climate Services (Allis et al., 2019) in
WMO Bulletin Vol. 68 (1) – 2019 provides overviews ofvarious current activities and future challenges regarding
climate services in the WMO community. It includes a section featuring the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events (referred to here
simply as “the Panel”) to enhance collaboration between theareas of research and operation toward the provision of useful climate services in Japan. The Panel is described in moredetail here, with updates from TCC News No. 9 and No. 28.
There is a widely recognized need to develop and sustain
links between the research community and operational service providers such as NMHSs (National Meteorologicaland Hydrological Services) in order to expedite the application of research advances in operational climate services for
improved climate information. The Panel, established in
2007, consists of prominent climate scientists from universities and research institutes in Japan, and has been chairedby Professor Hisashi Nakamura of the University of Tokyo
since 2017. Its missions are: a) to investigate factors behind
extreme climate events in Japan; b) to advise and assist JMA
on the issuance of statements on such events; and c) to recommend related application of state-of-the-art findings andexpertise. A working group under the Panel assists with the
production of materials and research relating to Panel discussions.
When a nationwide-scale extreme climate event significantly impacts socio-economic activity in Japan, the Panelinitiates investigation and discussion on factors of theevents with JMA experts. In this context, a preliminary email discussion is followed by more detailed face-to-face
discussions. Shortly after the meeting, JMA issues a statement outlining factors and outlooks relating to the event
based on the Panel’s investigation and advice. In 2018 summer, Japan experienced unprecedented heavy rainfall,
namely “The Heavy Rain Event of July 2018”, followed byextremely high temperatures (TCC, 2018: Primary Factors
behind the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and the Subsequent Heatwave in Japan from Mid-July Onward). The
statement is provided to decision makers and the generalpublic in Japan to help prevent or minimize adverse effects

from extreme events. In addition, the results of discussions
were summarized in a peer-reviewed paper (Shimpo et al.,2019) produced with close collaboration between JMA experts and the Panel.
To support the effectiveness and efficiency of the Panel’sinvestigations, JMA regularly shares various forms of data,
products and tools to help clarify current conditions of theclimate system via a dedicated website for the Panel and tosupport online/email discussions on climate diagnostics
with Panel members. JMA provides the Panel both with its
own products and with others created using programs provided by Panel members themselves, thereby helping to improve analysis of factors behind extreme events.
This framework provides high value by enabling JMA to
improve its operational climate information and services(including those provided to NMHSs in Regional Association (RA) II by the Tokyo Climate Center in its role as a
WMO RA II Regional Climate Centre) as well as staff expertise based on the progressive and state-of-the-art research findings of the Panel. Based on this arrangement,
Panel members can make significant contributions to society using their advanced expertise in the area of climate science. The regular updating of online climate data and products helps Panel members to comprehend the characteristics
of ongoing phenomena and provides materials for the identification of related research seeds. It should be emphasizedthat collaboration between research and operational services(as in the activities reported here) must lead to a win-win
situation in order to enhance the sustainability of engagement.
(Akihiko Shimpo, Tokyo Climate Center)
Reference
Allis et al., 2019: The Future of Climate Services. WMO
Bulletin Vol. 68 (1), 50-58
Shimpo, A. et al., 2019: Primary Factors behind the
Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and the Subsequent Heat
Wave
inJapan.
SOLA,
15A,
in
press,
doi:10.2151/sola.15A-003.
<< Table of contents

You can also find the latest newsletter from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA’s World (April 2019)https://www.jica.go.jp/english/publications/j-world/c8h0vm0000epfpe0-att/1904.pdf
JICA’s World is the quarterly magazine published by JICA. It introduces various cooperation projects and partners alongwith the featured theme. The latest issue features “Infectious Disease Control Japanese Technology Saving Lives”.
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Yasushi Takatsuki, Yasushi Mochizuki
and Kazuaki Tsuji)

TCC News

15

No. 56 | Spring 2019