Journal of Global Resources
Volume 6 (01)August 2019-January 2020
Page 129-133
UGC–CARE Listed Journal in Group D
ISSN: 2395-3160 (Print), 2455-2445 (Online)

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IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ON KEY VARIABLES OF DEVELOPMENT IN
KARNATAKA
Shruthi M. B.1 and Asima Nusruth2
1
Research Scholar and 2Professor,
Manasagangothri, Mysore, India
Email: shru.appi15@gmail.com, Email: n_asima@yahoo.com
Abstract: One of the demographically developed states of the country Karnataka has alreadyentered into the third stage of demographic transition which has its strong impact over theeconomic development of the region. The paper attempts trace the pattern of population
change as well as to analyse the impact of demographic transition on economic development ofvarious physiographic divisions of the state. A Partial Correlation model is estimated with thepublished data on Decadal Population Growth Rate (PGR), Life Expectancy (LE), Literacy Rate(LR), Work Participation Rate (WPR) and Net District Income (NDI). Finally the study reveals
that the improved socio-economic conditions of the region will lead to the replacement level ofdemography.
Key words: Demographic Transition, Development, Birth rate and Death rate.
Introduction
Demographic transition is naturally based on the demographic experiences which have moved
from a situation of high fertility and high mortality resulting slow growth of population to asituation of low mortality and low fertility which once again to a slow growth of population due tothe socio-economic development of the region. Similarly, owing to the better socio-economic
conditions of the state Karnataka also entered into the third stage of demographic transition
slowing the population growth. But this transition is varied among the various physiographic
regions of the state which also influences the different variables of development. Hence, thepresent study attempts to examine the relationship of demographic change with the variables ofdevelopment.
Objectives


To analyse the trends of population in different physiographic regions of the state.
To examine the impact of demographic transition on the key variables of development.

Methodology
To show the Demographic transition level of the various physiographic divisions, the study uses
C.P. Blacker’s Five Stages of Population Growth Model where the population transition isclassified into five stages such as High Stationary, Early Expansion, Late Expansion, Low
Stationary and Declining Population stages. Impact of demographic transition on the key
variables of development has been explored in the context of Karnataka for the period 19812011. The present study is based on secondary data obtained from Census of India Website,
Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Karnataka State Gazetteer. Civil Registration
System (CRS) on vital events are used to compute birth and death rates. A Partial Correlation
model is adopted to estimate the impact of demographic transition on different variable ofDevelopment using SPSS.25.
Study Area
Karnataka is located on the western part of the Deccan plateau. The latitudinal extends of thestate is between 11o31’ and 18o45’ North which forms 750 kms. of distance whereas
longitudinally extends from 74o12’ to 78o40’ East which is about 400 kms. The total
Geographical area of the state is about 191,791 sq. kiss. The state has geographically divided
into four major divisions (Learmonth, A.T.A., op. cit.) based on homogeneity criteria like rain
fall, climate, type of the soil, topography and so on. They are:
129

1.
2.
3.
4.

Coastal Region
MalnadThe Northern Maidan andThe Southern Maidan
For the present study, the entire state has classified as four major divisions and somealternation for the delineation of physiographical division has done in accordance with thedistrict boundaries as the age-specific census data are available at district level only.
Figure 01: Study Area

INDIA

Population Trends in Karnataka
Population growth in the state to a large extent corresponds with the trend of population growthof the country (Ranganatha. 2012). Figure 2 shows that there was a slow growth of population
either small or negative between the years 1901 and 1921, from 1931 trend takes a boost as
well as experience steady growth up to 1961 whereas the duration between 1961 and 1981shows rapid population growth in which 1981 records highest growth rate in the state. Due tothe improved medical facilities and awareness regarding family planning population growth has
been declining from 1991 till 2011.
Figure 02: Decadal Population Growth from 1901 to 2011
Decadal Growth
Rate (%)

3.0

2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0Years

Regional Variation in Population trends
Various regions of the Karnataka experiences different growth rates which can be clearlyobserved in the figure 3. Most part of the Southern Maidan falls under Old Mysore provinces
before State’s Re-Organisation (1956) shows highest population growth more or less similar tothe state’s growth owing to the improved socio-economic conditions. Malnad region shows130negative trend in 1911-21 due to the natural hazards like famine and epidemic diseases likeplague, malaria, cholera, influenza and such other factors and it takes slight positive
development in the following years, in addition to this there is a phenomenal ascend of 4.03%
in 1961 owing to the eradication of malaria and control of other diseases, development ofagricultural, industries and trade and so on (District Gazetteer, Shimoga. 1975) which later
takes declining trend up to 2011. Coastal region and Northern Maidan shows almost similar
pattern from 1931 to 1981, there after coastal region experiences steady declining rate than theNorthern Maidan.
Figure 03: Region Wise Decadal Population Growth from 1901 to 2011

Decadal Growth ofPopulation (%)

5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00

1.000.00

-1.00

Years
Northern Maidan

Southern Maidan

Coastal Region

Malnad Region

Birth and Death RateThough Demographic transition based on historical data, simplicity of its structure enables asensible analysis of Birth and Death rates in a population (P. K. Majumdar. 2010). The study
uses registered number of live births and deaths from 1971 to 2016 to reveal the scenarios ofnatural growth of population. Table 1 shows the decadal trends of birth and death rates per1000 population in which except Malnad all the regions shows decreasing trend during periodof 1971-81 in birth and death rate because of the awareness regarding family planning,
improved medical facilities and decreased number of deaths due to the control of hazardousand epidemic diseases. But the rate has taken boost during 1991-01 and began to decline
during 2011 as well as in 2016.
Table 01: Decadal Trends of Birth and Death Rate Per 1000 Population
Regions

1971

1981

Birth Rate (CSR)
1991 2001 2011

2016

1971

Death Rate (CSR)
1981 1991 2001 2011

2016
Northern
18.82 12.83 18.27 20.20 21.94 19.94 7.99 4.44 5.55
7.01 6.35
5.98
MaidanSouthern
13.53 11.72 16.96 17.62 15.00 13.77 4.64 3.95 5.31
6.65 5.95
6.35
MaidanCoastal21.63 17.47 20.49 22.50 18.00 17.48 6.22 3.87 5.87
8.03 7.87
7.51
RegionMalnad10.01 10.57 15.34 19.58 16.41 15.48 3.49 3.24 4.24
6.65 6.43
6.91
RegionSource: 1. Office of the Chief Registrar of Births & Deaths and Directorate of Economics & Statistics Karnataka,Bangalore. 2. Birth and Death rates are compiled by the authors

In Figure 4 Two Period Moving Average trend line has used to show the stages ofpopulation transition along with the Birth and Death rate. Southern Maidan attaining thereplacement level of population growth very early compared to the other regions due to theimproved socio-economic conditions of the region. Malnad and Coastal region are also
maintains little gaps between the birth and death rates indicating the achievement of ‘Low
Stationary’ level in following years. But Northern Maidan still experiencing slow declining trend
over birth and death rate and will take many more years to accomplish the transition level.

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24
20
1612840High

Stationary1971

1981

EarlyExpanding

1991

24
20
16
12840Birth and Death Rateper 1000 Population

Birth and Death Rateper 1000 Population

Figure 04: Region Wise Trends of Birth and Death Rates Growth from 1971 to 2016(a) Northern Maida(b) Southern Maidan

Late
Expanding Stage2001

2011

HighStationar1971

1981

Early
Expandi1991 2001
Years

Years
Birth and Death Rateper 1000 Population

Birth and Death Rateper 1000 Population

HighStation
aryLateExpanding

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016

2016

Years
24
20
16
128
40

Early
Expand
ing

Late
Expan

2011

24
20
16
12840High
Station

EarlyLate
Low
ExpandinExpand
Stationary1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 20162016

Years(d) Malnad Region(c) Coastal Region

Key Variables of the Development
In this study four variables are used to show impact of demographic transition on the development
such as Work Participation Rate (WPR), Literacy Rate (LR), Life Expectancy (LE) and Net District Income(NDI) whereas Population Growth Rate (PGR) is used as control variable. Table 2 shows the results ofPartial correlation with 2-tailed significance for various physiographic divisions of the state. This can be
explained as follows:
Work Participation Rate (WPR)
The Work Participation Rate (WPR) is defined as the proportion of total workers (i.e. main andmarginal workers) to total population (Census of India. 2011). This rate shows almost positive
with all other variables in all the physiographic divisions in which Southern Maidan shows
appreciable correlation with the Literacy Rate (LR) and Net District Income (NDI) while theNorthern Maidan shows less positive correlation between WPR and NDI. In coastal region
WPR has less positive correlation with literacy rate due to the rapid increase of literacy rateover four decades while the WPR is gradual increasing over the period of time. Furthermore,
Malnad shows average positive correlation with all other variables.
Literacy Rate (LR)The percentage of literates to the total population of the region is called as Literacy rate.
Northern Maidan shows very high correlation with Life Expectancy (LE) in contrary to this it
shows negative correlation value with Net District Income (NDI) of the region. Southern Maidan
has strong correlation with WPR and NDI which indicates the socio-economic development ofthe region. In Malnad and Costal regions, remarkable correlation has found with LE whichreflects the health conditions are more linked with the literacy rate.
Life Expectancy (LE)Life Expectancy at birth is the key indicator of health. Southern Maidan shows highest positive
correlation with NDI whereas Northern Maidan shows negative Correlation with the same
variable. A good association also found between LE and WPR in Malnad region where as
average relationship are found with all other variable except LR in Coastal Region.
Net District Income (NDI)
Income of the districts is also estimated in terms of Net District Income (NDI). A significant
correlation has been observed with all other variables in Southern Maidan Region whereas132

literacy rate and life expectancy shows negative relationship with NDI in Northern Maidan.
Coastal and Malnad region shows least positive correlation with WPR as well as averagerelationship found with other variables.
Population Growth Rate (PGR)
Decadal variation in the population is used for the population growth of the region. Here, PGR
is taken as a control variable which impacts on the changes in all other variables.
Table 02: Division wise Results of Partial Correlation(a) Northern Maidan(b) Southern Maidan

Control VariablesPGR WPR Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)LR
Correlation

WPR
1.000.

LR
.952
.199

LE.964.170

NDI.097.938

Control Variables
PGR WPR Correlation

WPR
1.000

LR.998LE.893

NDI
.963

.

.040

.297

.175

LR

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation

.952

1.000

.999

-.213.199

.

.028

.863

LE

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation.998

1.000.919.978.040

.

.257

.135

LE

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation

.964

.999

1.000-.170.170.028

.

.891

NDI

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation

.893

.919

1.000

.982

.297

.257.

.122

NDI

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation

.097

-.213

-.170

1.000

Significance(2-tailed)

.938

.863

.891

.963

.978

.982

1.000.

Significance(2-tailed)

.175

.135

.122

.

(c) Coastal Region(d) Malnad Region

Control Variables
PGR WPR Correlation

WPR
1.000

LR
.705

LE.559

NDI.111

Control Variables
PGR WPR Correlation

WPR
1.000

LR
.971

LE.918

NDI.186

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)

.

.502

.622

.929

.

.153

.260

.881

.705
.502

1.000.

.982
.120

.784
.427

LR

.971
.153

1.000.

.986
.107

.414
.728

.559
.622

.982
.120

1.000.

.886
.306

LE

.918
.260

.986
.107

1.000.

.561
.621

.111
.929

.784
.427

.886
.306

1.000
.

NDI

Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)
Correlation
Significance(2-tailed)

.186
.881

.414
.728

.561
.621

1.000.

LR

LE

NDI

Conclusion
From foregoing analysis, it was found that Southern Maidan which experiencing ‘low stationary’
transition stage has high impact on the variables of development in contrary to this NorthernMaidan which is still remains in the ‘Late Expanding’ stage of transition has shown lessdevelopment. Coastal and Malnad region stands next to the Southern Maidan in terms ofdevelopment. Although Net District Income shows positive correlation with Work Participation
Rate among all the regions, it is not showing effective impact as the economy of the state is notobserving working population except Southern Maidan. Finally, the study suggests that theGovernment have to take policy measures to improve the work rate among the population.
References
1. Husain, Majid (2011) Human Geography. Rawat Publications.
2. Lakshmana. C. M (2010) Dynamic of Population Change in Karnataka-An Overview. ISEC.
3. Majumdar. P. K (2010) Fundamentals of Demography. Rawat Publications.
4. Menike, H. R. Anulawathie (2014) The Impact of Demographic Transition on the Economic
Growth and Development in Sri Lanka from 1963 to 2007. IJ RMBSS Journal, vol.2,Issue.2, June.2014.
5. Ranganatha (2012), Geography of Karnataka. Mysore Book House.
6. Rayappa, P. Hanumantha (1998) Demographic Transition in Karnataka: A RegionalPerspective. Journal of Social and Economic Development. Vol.1, No.1, Jan-June 1998,
p.p.85-106.
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