Annex

Long-Term Monitoring Plan for the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site
(JFY2012-2021)
Comprehensive Evaluation Report

March 2022
Shiretoko Natural World Heritage Site Scientific Council■Composition of the Comprehensive Evaluation Report
Introduction
1. About the Long-Term Monitoring Plan
2. Evaluation Method
3. Comprehensive Evaluation Results
4. Views and Opinions from the Community
5. Overall Summary
Introduction
Shiretoko was inscribed as a World Natural Heritage site in 2005 in recognition of its
possession of an ecosystem and biodiversity having globally outstanding universal value.
The Management Plan for the Shiretoko Natural World Heritage Site was formulated in2009 with the aim of passing on this value to future generations. Noting that Shiretoko is
one of the few areas of Japan where a pristine natural environment remains intact, it sets
forth the following as necessary perspectives for managing it: (a) Collaboration andcooperation with the local communities, (b) Adaptive management, (c) Comprehensive
management of the terrestrial and marine areas, (d) Management by area classification,(e) Coexistence with primary industries, (f) Recreational use and conservation of thenatural environment, (g) Management from a broad perspective. With an eye to promoting
adaptive management based on scientific knowledge, the “Long-Term Monitoring Planfor the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site” (February 2012; hereinafter the “LongTerm Monitoring Plan”) was formulated through studies by the Shiretoko Natural World
Heritage Site Scientific Council (hereinafter the "Scientific Council"). Since then, themonitoring and evaluation of monitoring necessary for appropriate conservation andmanagement of the area have been conducted continually with the cooperation andcollaboration of concerned parties.
The Long-Term Monitoring Plan will come to an end in JFY2021. In view of this, thisreport summarizes the current status of Shiretoko’s value as a World Natural Heritage site
after the passage of approximately 15 years after its inscription. It is based on acomprehensive assessment using data obtained over the 10 years from JFY2012 to
JFY2021 (with some data covering longer periods), discussions by the Scientific Council,
and views and opinions obtained from local stakeholders.

11. About the Long-Term Monitoring Plan
The long-term monitoring plan establishes eight evaluation items that are based on
three perspectives for the effective and efficient adaptive management of the Shiretoko
World Natural Heritage Site.
List of evaluation items(1) Are the ecosystems and biodiversity of Shiretoko, which are criteria for its
inscription as a World Natural Heritage site, being maintained?
I
The productivity of a unique ecosystem is being maintained.
II The interaction between marine and terrestrial ecosystems is being
maintained.
III Biodiversity is being maintained at the same level as when the site
was inscribed on the World Heritage List.
(2) Are the recommendations based on the field survey (February 2008) by the
UNESCO World Heritage Center and International Union for Conservation of
Nature (IUCN) being addressed?
IV Conservation of marine ecosystems within the heritage site is beingbalanced with stable fishing through sustainable use of fisheries
resources.
V Impact of river constructions has been lessened so as to maintain river
ecosystems that can support salmonid species reproduction.
VI Excessive influence of high sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis)
population density on the ecosystem of the heritage site is notoccurring.
(3) Is the management outlined in the Management Plan for the Shiretoko World
Natural Heritage Site (formulated in December 2009) being provided?
VII Recreational utilization of the site and other human activities arebeing balanced with conservation of the natural environment.
VIII Impacts, or potential impacts of climate change are being tracked
early.
Monitoring is required to evaluate each of these evaluation items. Within the Shiretoko
World Natural Heritage Site, the ecosystem and other important aspects are continuously
monitored by concerned administrative agencies, local governments, relatedorganizations, experts, and others. Their efforts were included in the establishment of a
total of 37 monitoring items suitable for evaluation. Evaluation of each item thenproceeded.

22. Evaluation Method
The overall evaluations were conducted based on numerical values. This was done to
make the expressions as clear and simple as possible, as the aim was to disseminate
information not only to Heritage managers but also to the general public, including local
residents of Shiretoko.
The numerical evaluation (score) for each of the eight evaluation items was discussed
by the Working Group (WP) or Advisory Panel (AP) in charge as follows. (The WGs andAps are subordinate bodies of the Scientific Council.)[Evaluation procedure](1) Each WG/AP evaluates each monitoring item that has clear evaluation criteria on a
5-point scale. In doing so, the WG/AP takes into account the “status” (i.e., whether
the item meets the desired criteria) and "trend" (i.e., improvement or deterioration
during the evaluation period) of the item being monitored.
[Conceptual diagram of the evaluation of an individual monitoring item]
Evaluation
result fortheindividual
monitoring
item
Status ofevaluation
indicators
Guide tonumerical
evaluation

Satisfies

Satisfies

Satisfies

Improvement

Maintained

Deterioration

No problems exist(Requires attention)
5

Does notDoes notDoes notsatisfysatisfysatisfy

Improvement

Maintained

Deterioration

No indication of a major
Problematic situation
problem(Requires study of measures(Requires attention)
to improve the situation)
432
1*Determined with consideration for degreeof status/trend, etc.

(2) The evaluation items are also evaluated on a 5-point scale by calculating the averagevalue of the results of the evaluation of each monitoring item that corresponds to
the 8 evaluation items. Evaluation content and issues that cannot be expressed as
evaluation values are also compiled into an evaluation sheet.
(3) The Scientific Council summarizes the above-mentioned results and makes acomprehensive evaluation of the current status of Shiretoko's value as a World
Natural Heritage site.

33. Comprehensive Evaluation Results
With the evaluation results for the eight evaluation items serving as the basis, asummarized overall evaluation was prepared by taking into account the three perspectives
for the effective and efficient adaptive management of the Shiretoko World Natural
Heritage Site.
(1) Are the ecosystems and biodiversity of Shiretoko, which are criteria for its
inscription as a World Natural Heritage site, being maintained?
Evaluation Item I: Maintenance of ecosystem productivity
1) Score: 4.0 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・The status of marine biota—which includes the seal population, the stock of walleye
pollock, and the shellfish population in shallow waters—is maintained as it was at thetime of inscription.
・Decreases in seasonal sea ice, increases in air and sea temperatures, and other effects
of climate change are generating greater concern, and therefore further enhancementof marine environmental monitoring is required.
Evaluation Item II: Maintenance of sea-land interaction
1) Score: 4.3 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・The interrelationship between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems is being maintained,as the biota of sea areas is largely maintained, the improvement of river constructions
is progressing, and the upstream and downstream migration of salmonids is being
facilitated.
・The populations of some seabirds (cormorants and gulls) that supply nutrients from thesea to the land have decreased by half since inscription. The factors behind this mustbe identified.
Evaluation Item III: Maintenance of biodiversity
1) Score: 3.3 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・The marine and terrestrial biota is largely being maintained at the level it was at thetime of inscription for the Heritage site as a whole, and no major problems are observed.
・The decline of some seabirds and freshwater fishes and the distribution of alien species
must continue to be closely monitored in the future.
Comprehensive evaluation
Although some issues related to monitoring and items demanding attention exist, theecosystem and biodiversity of Shiretoko are being well maintained at the present time.
4(2) Are the recommendations based on the field survey (February 2008) by the
UNESCO World Heritage Center and International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN) being addressed?
Evaluation Item IV: Balanced conservation of marine ecosystems and fishing1) Score: 3.3 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・The conservation of the marine ecosystem and stable fishing through the sustainable
use of fishery resources are continuing.
・Catches of salmonids and Japanese common squid are declining, and changes in thewalleye pollock stock and other major fishery resources must be closely monitored.
The sharing of information between Japan and Russia will also be important inunderstanding the status of fish catches.
Evaluation Item V: Maintenance of river ecosystems
1) Score: 2.5 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・Improvements to river constructions are progressing and reducing obstacles to upstream
migration, and thus facilitating the upstream and downstream migration of salmonids.
・The population density of Dolly Varden, which are representative of the freshwaterichthyofauna of Shiretoko, is showing an increasing trend in some rivers, but theoverall trend is decreasing. However, the factors behind this trend are not clear.
*The score for this item was calculated as an average value using only the results of these two
evaluations. Thus, it must be noted that the score is lower than those of other assessment items.

Evaluation Item VI: Prevention of excessive influence of sika deer
1) Score: 3.2 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・In the Cape Shiretoko area, where the sika deer population adjustment is ongoing, someherbaceous plants are recovering and the number of flowering species is also increasing.
・There are no major changes in the vegetation composition when the Shiretoko Peninsula
is viewed as a whole. However, forest vegetation and some coastal vegetation continue
to be affected by feeding pressure from sika deer. Continuing to maintain low densities
of sika deer over the long term through population adjustments will be a challenge
going forward.
Comprehensive evaluation
Management measures in response to the recommendations have made progress and are
gradually showing effects. However, measures must continue to reach the target levels.

5(3) Is the management outlined in the Management Plan for the Shiretoko World
Natural Heritage Site (formulated in December 2009) being provided?
Evaluation Item VII: Balanced recreational use, etc., and environmental conservation
1) Score: 3.3 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・ Management and measures are being carried out to realize appropriate use andecotourism. They include a system based on the Shiretoko Ecotourism Strategy* bywhich proposals for appropriate use are received from the community. In addition, themajority of local organizations involved in tourism and use of the site honor the
strategy’s policies, and tourism that takes conservation of the natural environment into
account is being practiced.
*The strategy sets the basic policy for tourism in Shiretoko. It was established through cooperation,
collaboration, and agreement among all parties concerned with the Shiretoko World Natural
Heritage Site, (formulated in March 2013).

・Problems attributable to brown bears, such as dangerous incidents affecting tourists anddamage to agriculture, are occurring, and improvements are required. It is important tocontinue to achieve a balance between conservation of natural ecosystems and thestability of local industries (e.g., tourism and the promotion of agriculture, forestry, andfishery).
Evaluation Item VIII: Tracking of climate change
1) Score: 2.6 out of 5.02) Evaluation summary
・The current monitoring system has not yet reached the stage where it can adequately
assess the impacts of climate change.
・It is important to understand the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems andlocal communities, and to take action to address them.
・Above all, there is insufficient monitoring of oceanographic and meteorological dataand of data for grasping biological responses brought by climate change. This makes it
necessary to review and improve the monitoring implementation system while also
considering the formulation of future adaptation plans.
Comprehensive evaluation
Although no major problems are observed at the present time, more attention andmeasures are needed, especially with regard to climate change.

64. Views and Opinions from the Community
It is very important that the findings of this report, which summarizes the current statusof Shiretoko's value as a World Natural Heritage site, be shared not only withadministrative agencies, related organizations, and experts, but also with local residents
living in and around the Heritage site, and thereby build renewed awareness of area’svalue and current status as a World Natural Heritage site.
For this reason, a draft of the report was presented to the "Shiretoko World Natural
Heritage Site Regional Liaison Committee," which is composed of concerned ministries
and agencies, local governments, and local organizations. The following views andcomments were received as a result.
Views and opinions expressed by the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site Regional
Liaison Council
・The magnificence and rarity of the Shiretoko Peninsula’s ecosystem, which is worthyof being designated a World Natural Heritage site, come through in the overall
evaluation.
・With respect to the World Natural Heritage Site’s sea area, the report should also address
the issue of how to deal with coastal debris, which has long been a problem in the site.
・With respect to vegetation, which is a key component of the terrestrial ecosystem, thereport should pay attention not only to the influence of sika deer but also to the impacts
caused by alien species.
*Opinions expressed at the "First Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site Regional Liaison Committee Meeting of2021" held on November 10, 2021.

7

5. Overall Summary
Maintaining value is required with respect to the following criteria, which were
evaluated by the World Heritage Committee when Shiretoko was inscribed as a World
Natural Heritage site.
Criterion ix (ecosystem)
・Shiretoko provides an outstanding example of the interaction of marine and terrestrial
ecosystems as well as extraordinary ecosystem productivity, largely influenced by
the formation of seasonal sea ice at the lowest latitude in the northern hemisphere.
Criterion x (biodiversity)
・Shiretoko has particular importance for a number of marine and terrestrial species.
These include a number of endangered and endemic species, such as the Blakiston’s
fish-owl and the plant species Viola kitamiana.
・The site is globally important for a number of salmonid species and for a number ofmarine mammals, including Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) and a number ofcetacean species.
・The site has significance as a habitat for globally threatened sea birds and is a globally
important area for migratory birds.
For this reason, long-term monitoring is being conducted to promote adaptive
management of the World Natural Heritage Site based on the Management Plan for the
Shiretoko Natural World Heritage Site. According to the comprehensive assessment thatwas compiled for this report, the interaction of marine and terrestrial ecosystems that is
influenced by seasonal sea ice continues to be maintained today. Moreover, Shiretoko
continues to be an important area for biodiversity conservation, where a wide range of
species, including many rare and endemic species, live and develop. From these findings,
it can be concluded that the site’s outstanding universal value is being well maintained
overall following after its inscription as a World Natural Heritage site.
In addition, amid efforts to advance management measures in response torecommendations received based on the field survey by UNESCO and IUCN (February2008), it can be judged that marine ecosystem conservation and stable fishing through thesustainable use of fishery resources remain in balance. Furthermore, effects in terms offacilitated upstream and downstream migration of salmonids from the improvement ofriver constructions and the restoration of some herbaceous plants due to sika deer
population adjustments are being observed.
On the other hand, some situations that demand attention have been identified frommonitoring results. For example, the populations of some seabirds and the Dolly Varden,
which is representative of Shiretoko’s ichthyofauna, have been decreasing. Salmonidcatches are falling while warm-water yellowtail and other species are increasing. There
8

are also more conflicts between brown bears and humans, and sharp increases in thenumber of sika deer have been confirmed in some areas. These circumstances will requirecontinued close monitoring. Other challenges include improving the system formonitoring the effects of global-scale climate change, and developing an adaptation
strategy from the standpoint of conserving and managing the totality of Shiretoko’s value
as a World Natural Heritage site.
Efforts focused on tourism and recreational utilization of the World Natural Heritage
Site are underway based on the Shiretoko Ecotourism Strategy. Management efforts
undertaken by various stakeholders to promote appropriate use and ecotourism are
mitigating the impact of human activity. Nonetheless, tourism that makes use of wildlife
must be watched closely.
It is therefore important to continue engaging in appropriate management and tomaintain Shiretoko's value as a World Natural Heritage Site into the future.
It is worth noting that the following issues and opinions regarding future monitoringand management measures for the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site were raised by
the Working Groups and Advisory Panels in the process of conducting the comprehensive
evaluation. The promotion of scientific knowledge-based adaptive management of theWorld Natural Heritage Site must be continued by reflecting these points in the Longterm Monitoring Plan (Phase 2) (beginning in JFY2022).
(1) Issues relating to the long-term monitoring
・A comprehensive evaluation methodology must be established. Among other points,
it should cover the handling of monitoring that is not conducted as planned,
organization of the thinking behind evaluation items and methods for analyzing them,correspondence between monitoring items and evaluation items, and the method forsetting scores (5-level evaluation).
・Some evaluations include items that can be improved through management (e.g.,
evaluation of management actions) and items that are extremely difficult to improvethrough management (e.g., evaluation of population decrease due to risingtemperature). There are also evaluations for which causal links are not necessarily
clear. These evaluations are currently mixed up and must be sorted out. Assessing
each separately is desirable to grasp the essence of management as a World Natural
Heritage site.
・Monitoring results should be used not only to evaluate current status but also to
improve the current situation by applying the PDCA cycle for Heritage management.
・ Some causal links between recreational use and conservation of the naturalenvironment cannot be clarified. This makes monitoring and evaluation conducted9cooperatively by concerned WGs desirable.
・Achieving a balance between resource use and conservation within the World Natural
Heritage Site requires sharing status information and data on "status of use," "impacts
of use on the natural environment," and "management efforts." It also requires the
reduction or mitigation of those impacts by promoting appropriate use incombination with monitoring.
(2) Views concerning World Natural Heritage site management
・ The sharing of information between Japan and Russia is necessary for theconservation and sustainable use of fishery resources in the Nemuro Strait.
・The factors behind the falling numbers of Japanese cormorants and gulls are unknown
and should be clarified.
・Indicators for ascertaining brown bear population trends must be established basedon highly precise brown bear population estimates. Additionally, measures foravoiding human-caused injury and conflicts between humans and brown bears must
be promoted based on scientific data.
・Efforts must be made to ascertain the encroachment of raccoons through cooperationand collaboration with related organizations.
・ It is important to establish a management system based on monitoring of the
population and damage situation of Steller sea lions migrating to the Nemuro Strait,
and to formulate effective measures for preventing damage to fishing.
・In light of the growing interest in dam improvement among fishing personnel,
management aimed at raising the area’s outstanding universal value (OUV) as a
World Natural Heritage site should be promoted through more active dam
improvement and publicity of its effects.
・Low-cost methods for maintaining low sika deer densities must be established.
・Oceanographic and meteorological monitoring should be expanded at Shiretoko, andstudies related to climate change adaptation measures should be accelerated.
Yasunori Sakurai, Chairperson, Shiretoko Natural World Heritage Site ScientificCouncil10