Table of Contents

Chapter 1

Culture and EnvironmentThe Wisdom of Crowds …………………………………………１決断を下すのに群衆の知恵は役立つか？

Chapter 2

The Language of Culture …………………………………………６異文化への感性を育もう──外国で過ちをしないために

Chapter 3Black Gold and the Rise of Biofuels ……………………………11脱石油の可能性を展望する

Chapter 4

What Can YOU Do about Global Warming? ……………………16地球温暖化を救う手立てはあるのか？

Chapter 5

Lifestyle and HealthShall We Play a Game? ……………………………………………21高度化するゲームとうまくつき合うには

Chapter 6

The Happiest Day of Our Lives– Weddings at Home and Abroad ……………………………26結婚式を演出する──近ごろの結婚事情

Chapter 7

Ironing on the Top of a Mountain – Extreme Sports …………31山頂でアイロン掛け？──人間が過激なスポーツに挑むわけ

Chapter 8

You Are What You Eat – Healthy Eating ………………………36飽食の時代を健康に過ごすには──私たちの食事を考える

Chapter 9

Business and EconomicsLouis Vuitton and the Rise of Brands ……………………………41ルイ・ヴィトン──ブランドの歴史をひもとけば

Chapter 10

The Paperless Office? ……………………………………………46科学技術の進歩は書類のないオフィスを実現できるのか？

Chapter 11

e-Business – The New World of eBay and Amazon ……………51電子ビジネス隆盛──その経営戦略を検証する

Chapter 12

Who Benefits from Foreign Aid?…………………………………57対外援助の問題点を洗い出す

Chapter 13

Free Trade – Is There Such a Thing? ……………………………62自由貿易の矛盾は解消できるのか？

iii

Chapter 14

Science and TechnologyThe Value of Genetically Modified Foods ………………………67遺伝子組み換え食品を検証する

Chapter 15

Wonderbrain ………………………………………………………72脳の不思議──未知なる領域を開拓するとChapter 16

Cleanliness Is Next to Godliness – Are We Too Clean? ………77果たしてきれい好きはいいことなのか？

Chapter 17

Politics & International RelationsThe Danger of Rewriting History ………………………………82どうすれば歴史認識の溝を超えられるか？

Chapter 18

In the Name of God– The Rise of Religious Fundamentalism ……………………87宗教的原理主義の台頭をどう捉えるか

Chapter 19

The Value of Migrants ……………………………………………92外国人就労者の是非を考える

Chapter 20

The Fall of the Berlin Wall – How It Changed the World ………97ベルリンの壁の崩壊で世界はどように変わったか？

iv

Chapter

1

The Wisdom of CrowdsPre-reading ExercisesTopic Awareness1. How do you make important decisions?
2. Do you think groups make better decisions than individuals?
3. Do crowds always behave sensibly?

Words and PhrasesChoose a word from the list below to complete each sentence.
1. The population of Tokyo, like many capital cities, is very2. There are always.

problems when people from different cul-tures meet.
3. When you feel ill, you shoulda doctor.

4. At the end of the game, thewith the most points will win

the prize.
5. The soccer fans of some countries have a bad reputation forif their team loses.
contestantrioting

diversepotential

consult1-2

Reading1

1 Think about the last timeyou answered a question ordealt with a problem. How didyou do it? Did you use your own

5knowledge, consult an exper t,research the topic using theInternet or other resources, orask advice from friends? Thelast time you were in an unfamil-

10

iar town, how did you choose arestaurant? Did you choose thebusy one or the quiet one?

Japanese junior high school students trying to guesshow many sweets are in the cup in July, 2006.

When do you choose to start and stop clapping at a concert? There are manykinds of problems and many solutions, but what is the best way of finding the15best solution? In his recent book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowieckiclaims that the best solutions can often be produced by asking the “crowd.”2 To illustrate this concept in simple terms, Surowiecki describes a competitionat a country fair in the U.K. in 1906, where people had to guess the weight of anox. Eight hundred people entered the competition and wrote their guesses on a20piece of paper. When all of their answers were averaged, the resulting numberwas almost exactly the same as the weight of the ox. While no individualguessed the correct weight, the “crowd” was able to do it almost perfectly. Thesame principle is at work on the TV quiz show Who Wants to be a Millionaire?
When a contestant asks the audience for help, their advice is almost always right.

25

3 What is the “crowd” as Surowiecki defines it? In simple terms, it is a group ofpeople who conform to the following criteria. Firstly, the crowd must be diverse– that is, from different backgrounds, of different ages and so on. This is logical.
The more diverse the people are, the greater the number of potential solutionsthey will think of to a problem. Secondly, the people must also be independent in30

their decision making, i.e. members of the group should not exert influence onother members of the group. This again seems logical. If one powerful member1. The Wisdom of Crowdsof the group was able to steer the group toward the wrong answer to a question, 1this would clearly be undesirable. Thirdly, there must be a way of bringing theinformation together and making sense of it.
4 In some situations, using the wisdom of crowds can work very well. One ofthe best examples is in a market such as a stock exchange. Just a few years ago, 5the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in America proposedthe idea of a Policy Analysis Market (PAM) for the Middle East. This was to bean online market where traders could buy futures options (that is betting thatsomething will happen in the future) on events in the Middle East such as terrorist attacks or assassinations. The idea, although never put into action, was that 10the PAM market model would provide the best possible way of predicting thefuture as it involved a “crowd” working in ideal circumstances.
5 The wisdom of crowds can also work well inside companies. Jack Welch, thelegendary head of General Electric, encouraged employees at every level of theorganization to make decisions, as decisions made by the people closer to a prob- 15lem or challenge are more likely to be right. This policy also gave every employee a greater sense of participation and involvement in the company.
6 In other situations, the wisdom of crowds does not work quite as well. Onefamous experiment by psychologists in 1968 demonstrates that when we areuncertain about something, we usually follow the crowd even when the crowd is 20wrong. To demonstrate this theory, the psychologists observed what happenedwhen they asked a person to stop on the corner of the street and gaze into thesky. The result was that hardly anyone stopped. Then they asked five people todo the same thing, and four times as many people stopped. When they expandedthe group, they were able to make almost 80 percent of people look up at the sky. 25In this case, as the crowd became bigger, its power to influence others grew.
However, in this case, the experiment used the power of the crowd to trick people into doing something so that the crowd itself was effectively becoming morestupid.
7 Another negative example is something called an information cascade. For 30example, the stock market bubble in the United States in the late 1990s was aresult of the public’s unquestioning faith that investment in high-tech companieswas sure to produce a high return and was thus completely safe. People were1willing to believe this dubious prediction because so many other people alsobelieved it and they wanted to get rich quickly.
8 Traditionally, crowds have not been known for exhibiting a great deal of wisdom. Crowds are often associated with rioting and stampeding. It is clear how-5

ever, that if we can understand how to exploit the wisdom of crowds, we can benefit enormously. The next time you face a problem, it may be a good idea to consider how the wisdom of crowds can help you.

●NOTES ●The Wisdom of Crowds『群衆の知恵（2004）』 James Surowiecki「ジェームズ・スーローウィキー（1967-）」米国のジャーナリスト。『ニューヨーカー』誌のスタッフ・ライターでビジネス・コラムを担当。 “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?”1998 年に制作された英国の高額賞金のクイズテレビ番組。同名の米国版もある。日本では『クイズ＄ミリオネア』という同趣旨の番組がある。 contestant「（テレビ番組への）出場者」 criteria < criterion「（判断・評価の）基準」 stock exchange「株式取引所（＝ stock market）」 the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency「（米国防総省）国防高等研究計画局（略 DARPA）」米国防総省の一部局で，あらゆる軍事技術の研究開発に主導的役割を果たす機関。たとえば，国家安全保障にかかわるハイテクの対日依存は危険だとして，国内民間企業の技術開発を援助するために 1980年代後半に発足したプロジェクトもその一環である。 Policy Analysis Market「政策分析マーケット（略 PAM）」この場合は，中東への先物取引の相場を参考に中東情勢を分析し，対中東政策を組み立てるヒントにする試み。 futures options「先物オプション」将来の価格変動を見越して金融商品を買うこと。 Jack Welch「ジャック・ウェルチ（1935- ）」1972 年副社長。1977 年上席副社長。1979 年副会長。1981 年に GE 史上最年少の８代目の会長，最高経営責任者（CEO）に就任。GE の市場価値を1981 年の 120 億ドルから 2001 年の 2,800 億ドルに高めた。 General Electric「ジェネラル・エレクトリック（社）」世界最大の米国の総合電気メーカー。略称 GE。発明王エジソンと金融王 J. P. モーガンの資金が結合して 1892 年に誕生したエジソン・ジェネラル・エレクトリックが前身。 information cascade「情報のカスケード」会社などの組織において，トップから下位組織に情報を順番に伝えていくこと。cascadeは「いくつかの段差をなして流れ落ちる小さな滝」の意。 stampeding < stampede「集団で暴走する」

1. The Wisdom of Crowds

Post-reading ExercisesComprehensionLook at the following statements. Write T if the statement is true and F if it isfalse. Write the number of the paragraph where you find the answer in theparenthesis.
1.

Eight hundred people correctly guessed the weight of an ox at acountry fair in 1906.

2.

(#)

On the game show “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” contestants canask the audience for help.

(#)

3.

Surowiecki’s crowd has three key characteristics.

(#)

4.

Groups with strong leaders make better decisions.

(#)

5.

Large crowds can influence people more easily than small ones.
(#6.

)

Crowds are traditionally known for exhibiting a great deal of wisdom.
(#

)1-3

Guided SummaryFill each space with the best word from the list below.
conform

exhibiting

dubiouspsychologists

Traditionally, crowds have had a reputation for 1)ing, 2)crowds to 4)

such behavior as rioting.
how readily people 5)

illustrate

criteriadecision-mak-3)

have usedto the behaviorof groups. However, recent research indicates that if a crowd meets certain6), it is superior in its decision making ability to individuals.

