Understanding
Local Housing
Markets
Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

A report for the Local Government Association

Contents
Contents ................................................................................................................................................................. 2
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 3
Multiple Housing Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 3
Report Guide and Summary ................................................................................................................................... 4
Local Authority Reports .......................................................................................................................................... 6
1.

2.

3.

2

Affordability of Housing ................................................................................................................................. 8
1.1.

Measuring Affordability .......................................................................................................................................... 9

1.2.

High House Prices ................................................................................................................................................. 14

1.3.

High Cost of Housing ............................................................................................................................................ 15

1.4.

Low-Income Renters ............................................................................................................................................. 17

1.5.

Financialisation of Housing ................................................................................................................................... 18

1.6.

Falling Home-Ownership ...................................................................................................................................... 20

1.7.

Social Mobility ...................................................................................................................................................... 22

1.8.

Weak Economic Demand...................................................................................................................................... 23

Availability of Housing ................................................................................................................................. 24
2.1.

Measuring Availability .......................................................................................................................................... 25

2.2.

Lack of New Supply ............................................................................................................................................... 37

2.3.

Turnover of Existing Housing Stock ...................................................................................................................... 39

2.4.

Distribution of Housing......................................................................................................................................... 41

2.5.

Homelessness ....................................................................................................................................................... 43

2.6.

Weak Demographic Demand ................................................................................................................................ 45

Suitability of Housing ................................................................................................................................... 47
3.1.

Measuring Suitability ............................................................................................................................................ 48

3.2.

The Quality of Housing ......................................................................................................................................... 51

3.3.

Ageing Population ................................................................................................................................................ 53

3.4.

Climate Change..................................................................................................................................................... 55

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Introduction
This report was commissioned by the Local Government Association. Its purpose is toprovide local authorities with advice and guidance on how to best understand the various
complexities within their local housing markets in order to inform their decision making.
Local authorities have a range of duties and wider interests in ensuring the most effectivefunctioning of their local housing markets. They want to ensure affordable, appropriate,
good quality housing for everyone in the community within successful and sustainable
places. Therefore, a better understanding of their local housing markets will empower local
authorities to make decisions best suited to maximise positive added value in local markets.
This is especially timely as more local authorities are: developing interests in directly
delivering new homes alone or in partnership, embedding housing as part of wider
strategies for the health and well-being of individuals and places; building relationships withthe reshaped Homes England or the Greater London Authority (GLA), and; taking forward
new planning responsibilities within the new NPPF guided by the locally assessed housingneed numbers.

Multiple Housing Issues
There is growing public and political recognition that there is a crisis in housing but there
has been little consensus around what constitutes the current housing crisis and how tosolve it. The national housing debate can be over-simplified and regularly fails to recognisethat housing is a complex and interconnected system within the economy and society.
There is no simple single housing market. Instead there are multiple markets defined bylocation, property type, tenure, and price. The housing need and demand within thesemarkets is perhaps even more varied, driven by demographics, income, wealth, health,employment, migration, education, family and personal relationships, consumer confidence,
and an array of preferences.
Given this complexity, it is clear there is no simple single housing crisis. There are multiple
overlapping issues that affect different parts of the country and different types of people indifferent ways and to varying degrees. There may be factors that influence all housing
markets across the UK, indeed across much of the globe. There will, however, be others that
impact more locally and within specific housing sectors. It appears there are several
different and sometimes overlapping issues that mean housing is unaffordable, unavailable,
and unsuitable for everyone that needs it.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Report Guide and Summary
This section provides a guide to using this report and summary of the issues within it.
The report is split into three main sections, each one containing an introduction tomeasuring the issues and the issues themselves. The three sections are:1. Affordability of Housing

2. Availability of Housing

3. Suitability of Housing

Each of the three main sections starts with an introduction to measuring the issues fallingwithin the section. The introductions provide links and guidance to using publicly available
data to measure these issues. They also highlight some of the common errors andmisinterpretations found when using these data sources. As such these introductions to
Measuring Affordability, Measuring Availability and Measuring Suitability may be of mostinterest to those who deal directly with data and produce analysis. However, other readers
may still find them useful in furthering their understanding of housing.
The three main sections then provide summaries of 15 issues facing housing across England.
These are:High House Prices
High Cost of Housing
Low-Income Renters
Financialisation
Falling Home-OwnershipSocial Mobility
Weak Economic Demand
Lack of New Supply
Market TurnoverDistribution
Homelessness
Weak Demographic Demand
Housing Quality
Ageing Population
Climate Change
There are other housing issues but we consider these the most significant at this time. Someof the identified issues are unique while others are interconnected with each other. Some of
the issues will be recognisable across the country while others will only be recognisable incertain areas. The exact mix of housing issues will vary across every local authority with eachone facing its own unique set of challenges. However, while the exact mix will vary, there
will inevitably be other local authorities facing some of the same challenges. It is hoped that
this report and its supporting Local Authority Reports can help diagnose and begin to
explain some of the issues contributing to the housing challenges in your local area.
You as the local authority are best placed to know your local circumstances. Therefore,
rather than seeking to diagnose the challenges from afar, this report is intended to help
guide you in determining the issues and challenges facing your local area. To aid this, wehave provided a table overleaf containing some of the most common housing related
symptoms found across England. We have then identified which of the fifteen issues
discussed in this report that they are most likely linked to. It is quite likely that you may
recognise more than one symptom within your local authority. Given the ease of
misdiagnosis, we have also highlighted situations where this might occur. The report also
highlights symptoms where limited data prevents accurate identification, these may require
you to go out to collect data and ask questions about your own market.
Once diagnosis is complete, it will be necessary to identify the action required. While this isbeyond the scope of this report, some suggestions may be found within.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

SymptomDiagnosis

Stretched House
Price Affordability

High house prices are commonly attributed to a lack of supply. Thismay be the case in some areas but the financialisation of housing
and changes in mortgage lending conditions have played bigger
roles in driving up national house prices. Other issues including the
distribution of housing and social mobility may also play a role.

Falling HomeOwnership

Home-ownership is falling partly thanks to high house prices but
more so due to mortgage lending conditions since the credit crunch.
A lack of supply may constrain household formation but is unlikely
to have significantly impacted on home-ownership. The high cost ofrenting, particularly for lower income households, is a barrier for
many trying to save a deposit. For others, it is a lack of economic
opportunity. Falling home-ownership has negatively affected social
mobility and, in combination with an ageing population, haslowered housing market turnover.

Stretched Rental
Affordability

The high cost of housing can be difficult to diagnose given the lackof private rental data. A lack of new supply may be responsible inmany of the most stretched markets where high rents make it
difficult for many to save a deposit and access home-ownership.
However, stretched rental affordability is an issue across all areas
with external factors including mortgage lending criteria, investor
behaviour, and government policy all impacting on low income
renters and potentially leading to homelessness. It’s not just thecost of housing that needs to be considered but also the quality of
housing being purchased. Many renters consume less space orpoorer quality housing than would otherwise be desired.

Low Market
TurnoverThe low turnover of existing housing stock is a big barrier to afunctioning housing market. It partly reflects high house prices andfalling home-ownership but is also linked to mortgage lending
conditions, weak economic demand, and the ageing population.
Some markets have been negatively affected by tax changes inrecent years while others have seen activity rise. A low turnovermarket risks negative consequences for first-time buyers that rush
into home-ownership and may prevent the optimal distribution of
housing while limiting social and economic mobility.

Rising Household
Sizes

Household sizes have been static or rising in recent years as moreyoung adults live with their parents or in over-crowded private
rental housing. A lack of new supply is partly responsible along withhigh house prices but in some areas it may be due to local
preferences. Building more homes is the simple solution but theunequal distribution of housing raises some questions as new
supply could be purchased as second-homes or even left empty inextreme cases. New homes must match the needs and affordabilityof those who require them.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Local Authority Reports
This main report is accompanied by an individual
report and two maps for every local authority in
England. The reports and maps for each local
authority area can be downloaded via the
Residential Analysts website.
The local authority reports provide a summary of
publicly available data for the local authority inquestion along with some national comparisons. The
analysis highlights some of the challenges faced bythat local authority in the context of the housing
issues covered in this main report. As such, this main
report should be used as a guide to help understandthe data and analysis in the local report.
The local authority reports are accompanied by two
maps. The first map shows house prices across the
local authority at a lower super output area
geography while the second map shows transactions
by type of property at a full postcode level.
The primary purpose of these two maps is to highlight how housing markets and the issues
they face can vary not just across different local authorities but also within each one.
The local house price map highlights how median house prices vary across the local
authority. For example, blue areas on the map have house prices below the local authority
median while red areas have house prices of two-times or more the local authority median.
The map also provides a summary of the ONS house price index since 2007, median house
prices by property type, and the relative share of transactions by property type (bar chart).
Figure 1 – Local House Prices
Source: BuiltPlace for Residential Analysts

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The local transaction map shows the location of residential transactions during 2018 by
postcode and property type. It also provides a summary of the ONS house price index since2007, median prices by property type, and the relative share of transactions by property
type (bar chart). The local transaction map provides a guide to the geography of the local
authority’s housing market as can be seen in the Birmingham example below. The city
centre is highlighted by large numbers of flats (yellow) surrounded by terraced property ingreen and semi-detached in blue. A concentration of detached properties (red) can be seenin the north of the local authority.
Figure 2 – Local Transactions, Birmingham
Source: BuiltPlace for Residential Analysts

Ideally, the two maps should be used in tandem. For example, the house price map shows
prices by lower super output area but tells us nothing about the type of property selling or
how many sales there have been. An extreme example of this can be seen in Hartlepool as
per Figure 3. The house price map highlights a large red area with house prices of two-times
or more the local authority median to the west of the district. However, the transaction map
shows this area is lower density with fewer sales of typically detached homes. Therefore,
higher prices on the price map may reflect differences in the stock of property selling.
Figure 3 – Local House Prices and Transactions, Hartlepool
Source: BuiltPlace for Residential Analysts

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1. Affordability of Housing
Housing affordability is an issue because it is stretched for many people in this country.
National house prices are near record highs relative to earnings (Figure 4) and rents in many
London boroughs are over 50% of local earnings. The most popular explanation for thisstretched affordability is a lack of new supply. But there are several different ways ofmeasuring affordability and this suggests there are several different affordability-based
challenges affecting local markets to varying degrees across the country.
Figure 4 – House Price to Earnings Ratio, UK
Source: ONS Average Weekly Earnings and ONS House Price

10.0

House price to earnings ratio

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

2016

2012

2008

2004

2000

1996

1992

1988

1984

1980

1976

1972

1968

0.0

For example, the high price of houses (and flats) tends to reflect the cost and availability ofcredit rather than a lack of new supply. Instead, a high and rising cost of housing (rents) is amuch better indicator for a lack of new supply.
Meanwhile, mortgage repayments are well within historic affordable levels for most owneroccupiers, even recent first-time buyers. For many renters the barrier to home-ownership issaving up a big enough deposit. This deposit barrier means access to home-ownership formany renters is dictated by how much wealth their parents or grandparents can give them.
This suggests a growing issue with social mobility. Meanwhile, for others, a bigger barrier tohome-ownership is the lack of secure and well-paid employment opportunities. The issue is
economic rather than purely housing related.
This section of the report will look at the different ways of measuring housing affordability
and what they tell us about local housing challenges.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.1. Measuring Affordability
This section provides a brief look at the various ways of measuring affordability.
1.1.1. Measuring House Prices
There are several different house price measures, with different methodologies andcovering different parts of the market. This GOV.UK website provides a summary of the fivemain indices. The national house price indices are useful indicators of macro trends but
there can be significant variation across regions and local authorities.
The ONS UK House Price Index (UK HPI) is the only index that provides publicly available
data at geographies below regional level. LSL Acadata and Hometrack also publish subregional indices, but the data are not freely available to download.
The UK HPI is based on several data sources, one of which is the Land Registry price paid
data. This data contains individual property details on nearly all residential transactions
across England and Wales since 1995. The price paid data can be matched to other addresslevel data such as Energy Performance Certificates to create house price per square metre
data (for example as in this interactive map). The ONS have matched house price data to
Council Tax valuation lists from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) to create price per square
metre and price per bedroom data (link).
1.1.2. Measuring House Price to Earnings Ratios
House price to earnings (or income) ratios are perhaps
Figure 5 –Price to Earnings Ratio
the most popular way of demonstrating the stretched Source: ONS UK HPI, ASHE
affordability of housing (e.g. Figure 4) and are regularly
used to highlight an affordability crisis. They are also an
important component in the standard method of
calculating housing need, using the ONS ratios.
Unfortunately, these ratios can be simplistic andmisunderstood due to the limitations of what and how
they are measured. They have no regard for changes ininterest rates and do not distinguish between the costof buying and the cost of owning.
Additionally, the comparison of a single house price toa single earnings figure ignores issues such as the sizeof the local rental market, any self-employed earners,
and the shift to multiple earner households.
It is also important to avoid assuming that the lowest ratio markets do not have constrainedhouse price affordability. Even the lowest priced areas have seen large increase in their ratio
over the last twenty years and recent work by Geoff Meen showed that 30% of renters in
the North East could not afford a property at the lowest house price decile.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.1.3. Measuring the Cost of Owning
House price to earnings ratios may be near record highs but the cost of servicing a mortgage
is well within historically affordable levels (Figure 6). UK Finance data shows the median
new first-time buyer is currently spending around 17% of their gross income on mortgage
repayments. This reflects record low mortgage rates, longer mortgage terms, and a shift tohigher income buyers (see box-out). Unfortunately, local level measures of actual mortgage
affordability aren’t publicly available though estimates can be modelled.
Figure 6 – First-Time Buyer Initial Mortgage Costs as % of Gross Income, England
Source: UK Finance

30%

20%
15%
10%

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

Interest & Capital(calculated using 25yr term)

1998

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

0%

1996

Interest & Capital(actual)

1994

Interest Only

1992

5%

1990

As a % of gross income

25%

1.1.4. Measuring the Cost of Buying
For many prospective first-time buyers, the cost of buying is the biggest barrier to homeownership. High house prices relative to incomes and the withdrawal of higher loan-tovalue mortgages during the credit crunch are a large barrier. While the availability of higher
loan-to-value mortgages has increased in recent years and their cost has fallen, UK Financeand ONS data show the typical deposit required to become a first-time buyer is still
substantial. Local level estimates for the deposit barrier and need for housing equity can beinferred from house price to earnings ratios. However, it is very difficult to directly measure
the access to savings/deposits for prospective first-time buyers at a local level.
Figure 7 – First-Time Buyer Deposits as % of Income
Source: calculated using UK Finance medians

As a % of gross income

150%

North West

England

London

125%
100%
75%
50%
25%

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

0%

Beyond Averages and Aggregates: First-Time Buyer IncomesFirst-time buyers have always tended to have higher incomes than average. The chart
below shows how 64% of recent first-time buyers are in the top 40% of the income
distribution. Meanwhile, only 13% are in the bottom 40% of incomes. This suggests that
calculations using simple average earnings and incomes may over-state the affordability
constraints for those managing to buy and under-state affordability constraints for thoseunable to buy.
Figure 8 – Income Distribution of Recent First-Time Buyers% of recent first-time buyers

Source: English Housing Survey 2015/16 and 2017/18

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

1995-96First Quintile(lowest income)2005-06

Second Quintile

2015-16

Third Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Gross income

2017-18

Fifth Quintile(highest income)This issue can be seen in the comparison of two sources for first-time buyer mortgage
repayment affordability in London (Figure 9). The Nationwide data is based on the meansole earnings of a full-time worker and shows the stretched repayment affordability theywould be experiencing if they could buy alone with a 90% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage.
However, as UK Finance data shows, the repayment affordability for actual first-timebuyers in London is well within affordable levels based on their much higher than average
joint gross household income. Buying with a partner or others has become more
important with 60% of new mortgages now based on joint incomes. A 90% LTV mortgage
would probably be unavailable for most London buyers due to the soft cap on mortgages
with loan-to-income ratios above 4.5.ONS published analysis in 2018 comparing theaffordability of potential first-time buyers to actual ones across local authorities.
Figure 9 – First-Time Buyer Initial Mortgage Repayments, London
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Nationwide
UK Finance (calcuated using 25yr term)
UK Finance (actual)

1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018

Percent of earnings/income

Source: Nationwide, UK Finance

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.1.5. Measuring the Cost of Renting
Over one-third of households now live in the rented sector but limited publicly available
rental data is a big challenge, particularly for the private rented sector. It hampers ourability to measure how much renting households actually pay and their affordability at a
local level.
In the private rented sector, the VOA publishes useful summaries of local market rents by
number of bedrooms and quartile. These can also be supplemented with data from property
listings sites as the gap between asking and achieved rents is less of an issue than for house
prices though some agents may manipulate the listings giving a false impression of turnover.
Unfortunately, the VOA data cannot be reliably compared across time due to changes in themix of properties measured. For national and regional geographies, the ONS index provides
a useful time-series for the stock of private rents paid. This is different to most otherpublished rental indices that measure the flow of new rents agreed (e.g. HomeLet and LSL).
The ONS index shows that national private rents have risen broadly in line with earnings(Figure 10), suggesting private rental affordability has not worsened in recent years. This islooked at in more detail in Section 1.3. Unfortunately, the lack of sub-regional indices means
there is no easy way to measure rental growth at a local authority level. We can assess
affordability at fixed points in time by comparing the VOA data to ONS earnings data.
However, doing so raises some of the same issues as when comparing average house prices
to average earnings.
Figure 10 – Private Rents and Earnings, England
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Private Rents
Earnings

2005

Index, 2007=100

Source: MHCLG, ONS

There are more data sources available for Local Authority and Registered Provider rents
including averages from MHCLG. However, these are not adjusted for differences inproperties over time and any change in affordable rents may reflect housing policy rather
than underlying need. For example the recent declines in average rents may reflect the
obligation on social landlords to reduce rents by 1% per year from April 2016.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.1.6. Measuring the Long-Term Costs of Housing
Home-ownership has consistently been the preferred housing tenure for most people in thiscountry. Owning your own home has typically provided stability, a hedge against rising
housing costs in the future, and a successful financial investment. However, the current
economic conditions suggest that those stretching themselves to ‘get on the housing ladder’
may face unwelcome side-effects in the future.
The housing ladder was a common feature of the UK housing market of the last fifty years.
Unfortunately, it appears the economic conditions that enabled it are unlikely to return(high inflation of the 1970s/80s and falling borrowing costs in the 1990s/00s). Households
are finding it harder to move to a new home thanks to high house prices, low income
growth, and limited capacity to borrow more. Stamp duty and other transaction costs arealso a constraint but the single biggest one is the lack of sustained income growth.
Meanwhile, to afford current house prices and pass affordability stress-tests, first-timebuyers now have longer mortgage terms (66% have a term longer than 25 years) and new
borrowers appear more likely to have a mortgage post retirement (Figure 11).
Figure 11 – Borrower Aged Over 65 At End of Mortgage
Percent of mortgage advances

Source: FCA Sector Views, January 2019
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

All these factors suggest that any household stretching themselves to buy a home thatmeets their current needs but may not meet future ones (e.g. more space due to a growing
family) could find themselves trapped and unable to move. This could be particularly risky
for households using financial products beyond just a simple mortgage such as those where
they have to share in capital growth and/or pay rent on secondary borrowing.
Meanwhile, there are a growing number of people who may be stuck living in the private
rented sector into retirement. Without the ability to limit any future rises in housing costs,
these people may find retirement a very different proposition than for those living in ahome they own outright.
Measuring the long-term cost of housing is clearly difficult if not impossible. Much of ourunderstanding and expectations of housing are based on our historic experiences. However,the future could be very different and is unknowable. Therefore, we need to plan carefully
to avoid any unwelcome side-effects in the event the future is not like the past.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.2. High House Prices
High house prices are perhaps the most recognised and easiest to identify of all the housing
challenges given the availability of house price data (Section 1.1.1). The affordability
problems created by high house prices are also well known, including the need for large
deposits and the resultant barriers to home-ownership. However, there is much moredebate about why house prices are high and how to fix them.
The most popular explanation and the one underpinning central Government policy is thatthe long-running under-supply of new homes is at fault. While a lack of new supply may
contribute to rising housing prices, a lack of supply is typically seen in the rising cost of
housing. It is these two uses of a home that can create confusion: house prices reflect thevalue of a home as an asset while housing costs reflect its use as somewhere to live.
An asset can be priced by capitalising its income with a discount rate. For a home, theincome is reflected by the housing cost (see next section) while the discount rate reflects
mortgage rates and alternative investment returns. Under this model a lack of supply would
typically be seen in rising housing costs which would then push up house prices via
capitalisation.
Instead, if housing costs are fixed, the other way for house prices to rise is changes in the
discount rate. Figure 12 compares a simple model of house prices to actual ones. The modelis based on average earnings as a proxy for housing costs and prevailing mortgage rates as
the discount rate. The model suggests that falling mortgage rates have had the biggest
impact on house prices over the last three decades, though the late 1980s and early 2000s
booms clearly require further explanation.
Figure 12 – House Prices – Actual and Modelled, UK
Source: ONS, UK Finance (model uses average wage, average mortgage rate net of MIRAS, repayments:30%, and LTV:70%)

Nominal house price£250,000

Actual House PriceModelled House Price£200,000£150,000£100,000£50,000

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

£0

As the local level analysis shows, high house prices are a serious issue across the country.
However, it is dangerous to simply assign the challenge of high house prices to a lack ofsupply, low interest rates or some other cause without assessing other measures such as thecost of housing and demographics.
HIGH HOUSE PRICE SUMMARY: High house prices are a very useful measure of housing
market stress, but local authorities should avoid interpreting them as simply reflecting alack of new build supply or some other singular issue.
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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.3. High Cost of Housing
High house prices may get more newspaper headlines but the high cost of housing (rents) isthe more pressing issue, especially for those struggling or unable to buy. As Figure 13 shows,there is a clear difference in average housing costs across tenures. For most owneroccupiers, including recent first-time buyers, the cost of owning their own home is wellwithin affordable levels despite high house prices (see section 1.1.3). However, as the chartshows, households in the rented sectors spend a much larger proportion of their income on
housing, even once housing benefit is factored in.
Figure 13 – Housing Costs as % of Household Income Including Housing Benefit, England
Source: English Housing Survey

As a % of household income

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Mortgaged Owners

Private Renters

Social Renters0%2010-11

2011-12

2012-132013-142014-152015-16

2016-172017-18

The high cost of housing for renters creates multiple problems and is directly linked to otherhousing issues, including over-crowding, tenure insecurity, and poor-quality housing. It also
accentuates the issues with high house prices by constraining renters’ ability to save for adeposit and become home-owners.
Tackling the high cost of housing should be a priority but the lack of data makes it difficult toassess how much of a problem it is and where it is located, particularly in the private rented
sector. As Section 1.1.5 showed, it is possible to make simple assessments of rental
affordability across local authority at fixed points in time by comparing rents to average
earnings. However, this is too blunt to accurately assess how issues like Local Housing
Allowance and changes to housing benefit impact on different household types.
Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to accurately track the change in rental costs over time
below regional level. Tracking changes in rental affordability over time is important because
a high cost of housing does not necessarily indicate a lack of supply. A lack of supply would
normally be associated with a rising cost of housing. However, as Figure 9 showed, rents
across England have risen in-line with earnings in recent years. Combined with the above
chart it appears national housing costs are high but have been stable in recent years.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The stability of housing costs at a national level may possibly suggest there is no nationallack of supply. However, the lack of local data tracking rents and housing costs over time
makes it more difficult to definitively assess whether there is or isn’t a lack of supply in local
housing markets. For example, as Figure 14 shows, the ONS private rent index suggests
rental growth has been relatively low across most English regions over the last decade withthe exception of London, at least until 2017.
Figure 14 – Annual Change in Private Rents

Annual change

Source: ONS Private Rent Index

6%

London5%

Rest of England

4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

-2%

HIGH HOUSING COSTS SUMMARY: High housing costs are a significant issue for renters inmany markets but the lack of data will make it difficult for local authorities to accurately
assess the pressures in their local market. Ideally local authorities would be able tomeasure the change in housing costs over time.

16

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.4. Low-Income Renters
Housing benefit plays an important role in enabling low-income renters to afford their rent.
For example, the English Housing Survey shows the average social rented household’s
housing costs were reduced from 37% to 28% of their income by housing benefit.
The total number of housing benefit claimants has fallen in recent years (Figure 15) andgovernment expenditure on housing benefit has also fallen. Despite these falls, there arestill many local markets where housing benefit claimants make up a large proportion of theprivate rented sector leaving them exposed to changes benefits. These changes include thehousehold benefit cap and a freeze to Local Housing Allowance (LHA) which are causing
issues for many low-income households, particularly in the private rented sector. Given thewider affordability picture, it is likely the fall in housing benefit claimants results fromreduced welfare spending rather than reducing demand.
Figure 15 – Housing Benefit Claimants by Tenure
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

LA Tenants
RSL Tenants
Private Rented Tenants

1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/15
2015/162016/172017/18

Number of claimants

Source: DWP

LHA was originally intended to be equivalent to the 30th percentile of private rents acrossthe Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA) for a given property type. However, the freeze in LHA
since 2016 has resulted a growing gap between LHA and 30th percentile rents. Figure 16
shows that LHA only covers 95% or more of rent in just 31 of 152 of BRMAs. It also shows
the gap is bigger in BRMAs with higher rents. Households must make up the difference fromother income, including other benefits. However, this is made more difficult for thosesubject to the cap in total household benefit. It is also important to consider the impact on
different household types including single parents and young people.
Figure 16 – Local Housing Allowance as % of 30th Percentile Rent by BRMA and Weekly Rent
Number of BRMAs

Source: Calculated using VOA data for 2 bed properties, 2018
80
Weekly Rent
60
40
20

Over £250£200 to £250
£150 to £200
£100 to £150
Up to £100

0
Up to 80%

80% to 85%

85% to 90%

90% to 95%

Over 95%

LHA as % of 30th percentile rent

LOW INCOME RENTERS SUMMARY: Local authorities need to be aware of how changes tohousing benefit (cap, LHA freeze etc) are affecting different groups of renters.
17

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.5. Financialisation of Housing
The fall in global interest rates has played an important role in the substantial rise of UK
house prices over the last thirty years. The fall in interest rates was seen in most developed
economies across the world but not all saw a similar rise in house prices. There are
numerous reasons for this including the responsiveness of new supply but the links between
the UK’s economy, lenders, and housing market make UK house prices very susceptible toany changes in macro-economic conditions, banking regulation, and housing policy.
All the post-war housing booms and busts featured a combination of these factors but thelate 1990s/early 2000s have had a lasting impact. It’s more likely that looser mortgage
lending conditions followed rather than led house price rises during the boom but it’s clearthat the massive increase in the volume of lending (Figure 17) along with relaxed lending
criteria (higher loan-to-income and loan-to-value ratios, income self-certification, interestonly, and sub-prime lending amongst others) contributed to rising house prices.
Figure 17 – Gross and Net Lending Secured on Dwellings, UK
Source: Bank of England£100,000,000,000

Gross Lending£90,000,000,000

Net Change in Lending£80,000,000,000£70,000,000,000£60,000,000,000£50,000,000,000£40,000,000,000£30,000,000,000£20,000,000,000£10,000,000,000

Q4 1987
Q4 1988
Q4 1989
Q4 1990
Q4 1991
Q4 1992
Q4 1993
Q4 1994
Q4 1995
Q4 1996
Q4 1997
Q4 1998
Q4 1999
Q4 2000
Q4 2001
Q4 2002
Q4 2003
Q4 2004
Q4 2005
Q4 2006
Q4 2007
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018£0

The combination of rapidly rising house prices, an advantageous tax system, and readily
available mortgage debt enabled more people to move home, buy second homes, and buy
investment properties. Many did so under the assumption that house prices would continue
to rise in the future and saw significant benefits when prices did. Housing was increasingly
viewed by many as a financial asset rather than just a home.
The financialisation of housing may have benefited most home-owners but there are manyothers who have been negatively impacted by it. For example, the growth in landlords andthe private rented sector was enabled by the introduction of the assured shorthold tenancy
and the buy-to-let mortgage lending market. Prospective first-time buyers soon foundthemselves competing with and being outbid by investors.

18

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

First-time buyers are no longer being outbid by investors thanks to a combination of tax
changes and the greater availability of higher loan-to-value mortgages. This has seen firsttime buyers take the place of investors in most markets outside London. As Figure 18 shows,
it appears the rise in private rented households has levelled out in the last couple of years
but it’s still important to understand how these changes have negatively impacted people.
Figure 18 – Private Rented Household, England
Source: English Housing Survey

Households

5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000

Labour Force Survey

English Housing Survey

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

0

It’s not just first-time buyers that investors have priced out. The financialisation of property
also coincided with the rapid growth in the number of students attending higher education.
The growth in student numbers was far greater than could be housed in existing university
accommodation and so local markets were left to deal with the surplus of rental demand.
Potential home movers found themselves crowded out by investors able to pay much higher
prices thanks to the rents generated by squeezing students into what had been family
homes. While the activity of investors has diminished in most markets and the growth inpurpose-built accommodation has helped, the high concentrations of student households
living in family homes has had a lasting effect on many local housing markets.
Many of the problems described in this report fit into more than one issue. For example, thestudent housing issue above is not just about financialisation but also housing distribution(see section 2.4). This is also the case for second homes. The conditions created by thefinancialisation of housing enabled more people to buy second homes in city centres, anddesirable rural and coastal locations. This has had a direct effect on house price affordability
in many of these locations, leaving local residents less able to afford to buy in their local
markets.
FINANCIALISATION OF HOUSING SUMMARY: The effects of financialised housing arevaried and will depend on the geographic, social, and economic profile of your local
authority.

19

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.6. Falling Home-Ownership
Home-ownership is this country’s preferred tenure, housing nearly two-thirds (64%) ofhousehold and surveys repeatedly show that most people aspire to own their own home.
Unfortunately, that aspiration has become increasingly unrealised for many people.
Home-ownership has fallen from its peak in the early 2000s (71% of households) while thenumber of mortgaged home-ownership stagnated through the 1990s and early 2000s. Thatstagnation reflects several factors including the ageing baby boomer generation moving into
outright ownership and constrained housing affordability amongst lower income
households. However, it was the credit crunch that is responsible for most of the decline inmortgaged home-ownership.
The credit crunch led to the withdrawal of higher loan-to-value mortgages and this createda massive deposit barrier preventing many prospective first-time buyers from buying (seeSection 1.1.4). Mortgaged home-ownership has fallen by over one million households since2007 (Figure 19 below).
Figure 19 – Mortgaged Home-Owning Households, England
Source: ONS LFS, MHCLG English Housing Survey

9,000,000
8,500,000

Households

8,000,000
7,500,000
7,000,000
6,500,000
6,000,000

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

5,000,000

2008

Labour Force Survey
English Housing Survey

5,500,000

The fall in home-ownership would not necessarily be a problem if the alternatives offeredsimilar benefits such as security of tenure, cost, quality, advantageous tax incentives, andthe ability to minimise housing costs in retirement. Unfortunately, many of those priced outof home-ownership end up living in the private rented sector, which has none of thosebenefits. Reforming the private rented sector to offer at least some of those benefits would
be an improvement but home-ownership remains the preferred tenure, not least thanks tothe continued assumption that house prices will rise in the future.
Recent years have seen housing policy target first-time buyers with the intention ofincreasing home-ownership. Higher loan-to-value mortgages have increased in availability
and have reduced their mortgage rate premium to lower loan-to-value products.
Meanwhile, the changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax have hit investors and helped first-timebuyers replace them in all but the highest house price markets. Surveys now suggest thatmortgaged home-ownership has started to rise again in the last couple of years (Figure 19).

20

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Home-ownership may be rising again but many people have and will continue to be affectedby both the credit crunch and high house prices relative to incomes. As Figure 20 shows,
home-ownership rates for younger generations are recovering but are still lower than forprevious generations at any given age. It’s possible that these generations could see lower
home-ownership rates forever even if the mortgage market continues to improve as house
price affordability remains a constraint, particularly for less wealthy and lower income
households.
Figure 20 – Home-Ownership Rate by Age Cohort (Year Born), UK
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey% of households owning their home

90%
80%

1946

70%
1976

60%

1971

1966

1961

1956

1951

1941

70

75

1981

50%

1986

40%
1991

30%
20%
1996

10%
0%
15

20

25

30

35

40

45
At age

50

55

60

65

FALLING HOME-OWNERSHIP SUMMARY: People were already struggling to access homeownership prior to the recession but mortgage lending conditions following the credit
crunch have been the biggest barrier. Local authorities may struggle to influence local
home-ownership rates given the importance of wider economic conditions and limited
evidence that building new homes has an effect on home-ownership rates

21

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.7. Social Mobility
Social mobility is a much bigger issue than just housing, but housing plays an important partin both enabling and preventing disadvantaged people from making social progress.
The barriers to social mobility can take many Figure 21 – Social Mobility Index by LA
Source: Social Mobility Commission
forms. The Social Mobility Commission
published their fifth ‘State of the Nation’report in 2017. It noted that: “The divide is
not just an economic or social one. It takes
the form of a widening geographical divide”.
As part of that report they published a Social
Mobility Index. Figure 21 shows the overall
score across all local authorities with blue
representing areas of high social mobility andred representing areas of low social mobility.
The report highlighted that: “There is no
simple north/south divide. Instead, a divide
exists between London (and its affluent
commuter belt) and the rest of the country –London accounts for nearly two-thirds of allsocial mobility hotspots.”
London and its affluent suburbs may rank most highly overall for social mobility, but theunderlying unaffordability of its housing markets are a big problem as pointed out by recent
LSE research. Young peoples’ ability to access home-ownership is increasingly determinedby whether their parents are home-owners or not. As section 1.1.4 showed, managing toraise a deposit is a big barrier for many prospective first-time buyers. This has meant that
increasing numbers are now reliant on the ‘bank of mum and dad’ as shown by Figure 22
below. This is an even bigger issue for the most expensive markets like London where therequired deposit is so large that there’s little hope of saving up and it requires borrowing
from a very wealthy ‘bank of mum and dad’, one probably already based in London.
Figure 22 – Source of First-Time Buyer Deposit, England
Source: English Housing Survey (more than one answer could be given)% of recent first-timebuyers100%

1995-96
2005-06
2017-18

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Savings

Gift/Loan From
Family/Friend

Inheritance

Other Source

SOCIAL MOBILITY SUMMARY: Social mobility is a bigger issue for local authorities thanjust housing but it is an important factor to include in any assessment.
22

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

1.8. Weak Economic Demand
The challenges described above have generally focussed on the most unaffordable ofmarkets, usually in terms of house price. However, even the markets with the lowest house
price to earnings ratios have considerable affordability challenges. As highlighted in section
1.1.2, recent work by Geoff Meen showed that 30% of renters in the North East could notafford a property at the lowest house price decile. For many people in this area and others,
the challenge is not just the cost of a home but also the underlying economic conditions.
Recent years have seen many people across the UK experience a cost of living squeeze as
wages have risen slower than inflation (Figure 23). Meanwhile a lack of job opportunities
and employment insecurity all contribute to a situation where people are unable orunwilling to rent or buy appropriate housing.
With much stricter mortgage lending regulations, many prospective first-time buyers ineconomically weaker areas may struggle to pass affordability tests. Even when they do, theunderlying insecurity of their employment situation may leave many wondering whether along-term commitment to paying a mortgage is a sensible decision, especially when the costof renting is relatively affordable.
Figure 23 – Wage Growth and Inflation, UK
Source: ONS

Annual change

6%

Inflation
Wages

5%
4%
3%
2%
1%

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0%

Measuring the economic challenges in local areas is relatively easy thanks to large amounts
of ONS data. However, it can be more difficult to assess who is most affected by these issues
below a regional level without primary data collection through surveys.
WEAK ECONOMIC DEMAND SUMMARY: Even local authorities with apparently‘affordable’ house prices will contain households struggling with unaffordable housing
due to local economic challenges and other issues.

23

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2. Availability of Housing
Housing is unavailable for everyone that needs it because we have not been building
enough new homes is the most popular housing crisis narrative. The typical argument is thatnew-build supply has consistently failed to meet the rate of projected household formationand increasing new housing supply to this rate or above is widely seen as the solution.
Building new homes is essential to making housing available for everyone that needs it andnew supply has been increasing in recent years (Figure 24 below). However, the lack of new
homes is only part of the problem for many local markets. New homes only account foraround 10-12% of all residential transactions and so the second-hand market tends toprovide most of the available housing supply at any given time.
Figure 24 – New Build Completions by Tenure, England
Source: MHCLG Tables 213 and 120

400,000

Unknown
Housing Associations
Local Authorities
Private Enterprise

New build completions

350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

2016

2006

1996

1986

1976

1966

1956

1946

0

The dependence on existing housing stock for most housing transactions means that the low
turnover of existing homes is a big problem for many areas. This is particularly the casewhere housing is unevenly distributed. Housing can be unevenly distributed in terms ofspace and location. For example, many older households have more space than they
regularly need while younger larger households squeeze into homes that are too small for
their needs. Meanwhile some areas with strong demographic demand may not have enoughhomes while other areas with weak demographic demand may have too many homes.
Understanding how the availability of homes varies across local markets is essential toensuring new supply is most effective. Ideally, it should also be cross-referenced against
plans for economic growth and infrastructure improvements.
This section of the report will look at the different ways of measuring the availability of
housing and measures of housing need and demand. It will then look at what they tell us
about local housing challenges.

24

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.1. Measuring Availability
This section looks at the various ways of measuring the availability of housing.
2.1.1. Measuring Existing Housing Stock
The first step in measuring the availability of housing is to understand the existing dwellingstock. Fortunately, there are several different sources for data on dwellings in England withvarying levels of detail and geography. These include:






CensusMHCLG English Housing Survey
MHCLG Dwelling StockMHCLG Council Taxbase
VOA Council Tax

The Census provides a very useful and detailed decennial look at the population and housing
profile of residents in England and Wales. It provides very granular geographic data which isavailable from the slightly intimidating Nomis website and has been used to create
resources such as the mapping website DataShine. One difficulty with the Census is that it isbased on population so there are some differences in definitions and variables. For example,
accommodation type is measured by household space rather than dwelling (there can be
multiple household spaces in one dwelling) while tenure and number of bedrooms istypically measured by households.
The English Housing Survey provides a more detailed annual look at dwellings than the
Census (and the housing circumstances of households as it is two surveys in one). However,
it is a much smaller sample and published data is usually limited to former government
office region level or above. It is weighted using MHCLG’s Dwelling Stock so matches thesenumbers. The detailed survey responses are available by request from UK Data Service.
MHCLG’s Dwelling Stock data also provides estimates for the number of dwellings at a local
authority level by tenure. Meanwhile the Council Tax based statistics from MHCLG and VOA
provide more detailed information on Council Tax exemptions and property characteristics(tax band, property type and build period) respectively.
Figure 25 – Housing Stock by Tenure and Type of Dwelling, England
Source: English Housing Survey Stock Profile 2017
8,000,000

Social Sector
Private Rented
Owner Occupied

7,000,000

Dwellings

6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,0000Terraced Houses

25

Semi-DetachedHousesDetached Houses

Bungalows

Flats

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.1.2. Measuring New Supply in Dwellings
Counting new homes should be easy as there’s a physical object you can see and feel but itturns out to be quite difficult. Limitations with the available housebuilding data mean we
don’t accurately know how many new homes are being built, where they are being built,
and who is building them. That is a big problem.
The most frequently used data is MHCLG’s House Building: New Build Dwellings series oftables. The data is published quarterly, at local authority level, covers starts andcompletions, has a long run of historic data, and includes tenure splits. It is regularly used tocreate charts such as Figure 24 to demonstrate numerous issues including a lack of new
supply and the historic importance of local authorities in building new housing.
Unfortunately, there are several issues with MHCLG’s New Build data and it is frequently
misused. The biggest issue, as Figure 26 shows, is an undercount in the number ofcompletions when compared to the housebuilding completions recorded in MHCLG’s morecomprehensive Net Additional Dwellings data. Recent MHCLG statistical releases haverelegated the New Build data to ‘leading indicator’ status and so they should not be reliedon as an accurate measure of the number of new homes started or completed. There aresuggestions that this undercount started in the 1990s and this video of a presentation by
Neal Hudson of Residential Analysts goes into more detail on the possible reasons for theundercount.
Figure 26 – New Build Completions, England

New homes per year

Source: MHCLG Tables 213 and 120, NHBC
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000

NHBC Completions
MHCLG New Build - Completions
MHCLG Net Additional Dwellings - Completions

50,000
0
Q4
2005

Q4
2006

Q4
2007

Q4
2008

Q4
2009

Q4
2010

Q4
2011

Q4
2012

Q4
2013

Q4
2014

Q4
2015

Q4
2016

Q4
2017

Q4
2018

Another issue is that the undercount appears to be bigger in urban areas where housing isless likely to be delivered by the volume housebuilders. The new build data and underlying
NHBC data appear to be missing some of the recent increases in delivery by small andmedium sized housebuilders, build-to-rent developers, premium developers, and housing
associations. It therefore doesn’t reflect the widening range of companies and organisationsdelivering new homes. Any analysis or policy suggestions using NHBC’s data on small andmedium sized housebuilders may not accurately reflect the actual recent trends inhousebuilding by these organisations.

26

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Identifying who is building new homes raises a further problem with the New Build data: thetenure split. It is frequently assumed that the tenure split, as seen in Figure 24, reflects thetenure of the homes being built. This is not the case. The tenure reflects the status of theorganisation building the homes and more accurately the organisation registering thecompletion. This is a problem in situations such as joint ventures, where housing
associations are building market housing, or when the main contractor registers the home.
Given all the above problems, it is advisable to treat the MHCLG New Build data withcaution. Unfortunately, the more comprehensive housebuilding completion data in
MHCLG’s Net Additional Dwellings release is only available annually with a 9 month delay.
However, while the Net Supply data is more comprehensive, it is not perfect as it only
reports the data provided at the time of measurement and is not updated. For example,
comparisons with local authorities’ annual monitoring reports may highlight differences indelivery that will only be revised in MHCLG’s Net Additional Dwellings data following thenext Census.
2.1.3. Measuring New Supply
Measuring new supply in terms of number of dwellings is the preferred option and reflects
the government’s housebuilding target but it is not the only way. For example, Figure 27
below shows the trend in total new housing delivery not just in terms of number ofdwellings but also total floor area (i.e. square metres) and total number of bedrooms built.
However, the ability to measure delivery in this way at a local level is compromised by a lackof data.
Figure 27 – New Supply by Dwellings, Bedrooms and Floor Area

100
80
60
40

Homes

20

Bedrooms

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132011-122010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-082017-18

Floor Area0

2016-17

New supply indexed
100 = 2007/08

Source: MHCLG Tables 120, 254, NB1
120

Measuring new supply in units of more than just dwellings would better enable local
authorities to ensure they are meeting local housing need and demand. It would also help
avoid the risks created by a housebuilding target based on a single headline number ofdwellings. For example, a target based just on dwellings could unintentionally lead to theconstruction of homes that are smaller than appropriate for that local market. So far, that
does not appear to be happening at a national level as Figure 27 shows delivery by numberof beds and floor area rising faster than by number of homes since the recession.

27

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.1.4. Measuring Affordable Housing Delivery
As Section 2.1.2 highlighted, the tenure variable in MHCLG’s new build dwellings data
reflects the tenure of the organisation registering the completion and not the tenure of thehome built. Fortunately, MHCLG also publish separate affordable housing delivery data as
shown in Figure 28. The National Housing Federation also publish data on housing delivery
by housing associations. However, this data covers all new homes involving a housing
association and so there may be overlaps with other published sources.
Figure 28 – Affordable Housing Delivery, England
Source: MHCLG Table 1000
80,000
Other

Intermediate

Affordable Rent

Social Rent

Homes per year

70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0002017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132011-122010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-072005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

1999-00

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

1995-96

1994-95

1993-94

1992-93

1991-9202.1.5. Measuring Development Land
Identifying land for development is an essential step in planning for new homes.
Unfortunately, there is limited publicly available data on land ownership and control,
though the situation has improved with the release of Land Registry’s title ownership data
(Commercial & Corporate and Overseas Companies). However, the use of this data is limited
without the addition of the National Polygon dataset though there are some 3rd party
products that provide cost-effective access.
Brownfield Land Registers are frequently cited as a significant source of land for new homes
but there are concerns about how much can realistically be delivered. Land use change datafrom MHCLG provides a useful summary of the land used for new homes though changes inmethodology make comparisons over time difficult (Figure 29).
Figure 29 – Land Changing to Residential Use by Previous Use, England
Source: MHCLG Tables 371, 226
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

Not Previously Developed28

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2016/172015/16

2014/15

2013/14

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

HectaresPreviously Developed2.1.6. Measuring the Change in Existing StockHousebuilding completions may be the single biggest factor in how the housing stockchanges each year but it is not the only one. Figure 30 shows how the net change in
dwellings can vary significantly when compared to completions. Historically, the total
number of dwellings increased by less than the rate of housebuilding as existing homes
were demolished. This is an important point to bear in mind when looking at the large
volume of housebuilding during the post-war period. More recently, the stock of existinghomes has been increasing by more than the rate of housebuilding . This reflects theimportance of conversions and changes of use, including permitted development rights, inthe supply of new homes.
Figure 30 – Gross and Net Housing Supply, England and Wales
Source: MHCLG, AE Holmans, Census
400,000
350,000

Dwellings per year

300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000

New Build Completions
Net Change in Dwellings

50,000

2016

2006

1996

1986

1976

1966

1956

1946

1936

1926

1916

1906

1896

1886

1876

1866

1856

0

MHCLG’s Net Additional Dwellings data is central government’s preferred measure for the
net change in dwelling stock but the delay in publication (typically in November for theprevious financial year) makes up-to-date analysis tricky. It’s also important to note the final
point made in Section 2.1.2 that historic data is not updated until the next Census even if
there are clear differences. Fortunately, as Figure 31 shows, there are other data sourcesthat can be used as leading indicators for the change in dwelling stock. These include
changes in the number of dwellings recorded in the Council Tax data (MHCLG and VOA) andthe number of new Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) issued. EPCs have recently been
added to MHCLG’s New Build release as an ‘official’ leading indicator of net supply.
Figure 31 – Net Change in Dwellings, England
Net new homes per year

Source: MHCLG Tables 120, NB4, and VOA
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000

MHCLG Net Additions
Change in Council Taxbase
New Energy Performance Certificates

50,000
0
Q4
2005

29

Q4
2006

Q4
2007

Q4
2008

Q4
2009

Q4
2010

Q4
2011

Q4
2012

Q4
2013

Q4
2014

Q4
2015

Q4
2016

Q4
2017

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Q4
2018

2.1.7. Measuring Housing Market Transactions
The introduction to this section noted that new homes only account for around 10-12% of
all residential transactions. Therefore, the second-hand market tends to provide most of theavailable housing supply at any given time.
Measuring housing market transactions is relatively easy thanks to the HM Land Registry
sales data published within the house price index release. However, there are somecomplications to be aware of when using this data. The first is that some transactions are
excluded from the Land Registry release as they are judged to not be transacted at a market
price. This is shown by the shortfall when compared to HM Revenue and Customs nationaltransaction data in Figure 32 below.
Figure 32 – Housing Market Transactions, England
Source: HM Revenue and Customs, HM Land Registry
1,600,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000

HM Land Registry

200,000

Dec-18Jun-18Dec-17

Jun-17

Dec-16Jun-16

Dec-14Jun-14

Dec-13Jun-13Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-10Dec-10

Jun-09Dec-09Jun-08Dec-08Dec-07

Jun-07

Dec-06

Jun-06

Dec-05

Dec-15

HM Revenue & Customs0

Jun-15

Transactions per year

1,400,000

These excluded transactions include transfers under a power of sale/repossessions,mortgaged buy-to-lets, and corporate transfers. Therefore, the published transaction countcan be significantly below actual levels in areas with lots of mortgaged buy-to-let (e.g.
historic new build hotspots) and lots of corporate transactions (e.g. central London). The
excluded transactions have been published as additional data within the Land Registry Price
Paid data since 2013.
A second complication with the Land Registry sales data is raised by Figure 32 but may not
be immediately apparent. The Land Registry data is not published for the two most recent
months and the gap between the two lines is wider in latest published months. This reflects
a lag in transactions being recorded with Land Registry. This lag limits our ability to assessvery recent transaction trends and has directly impacted on the ONS house price index(though now fixed). Given the lag’s importance, it is dealt with separately in the following
section.

30

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The Land Registry Lag: Volatility in Prices and Transactions
Every month HM Land Registry publish the latest release of registered sales in their very
useful Price Paid Data. With only a month delay, it is tempting to use this data tounderstand recent trends in transactions. However, there can be a time lag in when a saleis registered with Land Registry and this lag can cause misunderstandings.
For example, Figure 33 below shows the data for sales registered in December 2016. Only
36% of the sales added to the registry in December took place during December. 40% ofsales added took place in November, 7% in October, and 1.2% between 1995 and 2015.
Figure 33 – Transactions Registered in December 2016
DeletedChangedDec-16

Nov-16Oct-16

Sep-16Aug-16

Jul-16Jun-16May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16Added

Jan-1640,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000
01995-2015

Monthly transactions

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data

This lag in when sales are registered can cause issues when trying to identify recent
trends in housing transaction levels. Figure 34 below shows how the total transaction
count changes substantially with each new release of registrations. For example, the firstrelease of sales during October 2016 only recorded 39% of October sales recorded in the
December 2016 release. It’s for this reason that the sales data available from the ONS UK
House Price Index is two months behind the house price series and the house price index
revision period has been increased to 12 months. The lag also appears to be more
substantial for new build sales, possibly due to the additional time taken to create a title.
Figure 34 – Monthly Transactions by Release, 2016
160,000
144,000
128,000
112,000
96,00080,00064,00048,00032,00016,000
0

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Oct 2016 ReleaseNov 2016 Release
Dec 2016 Release
HM Revenue & Customs

Jan

Monthly transactions, 2016

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data A and B

2.1.8. Measuring Housing Need
31

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Measuring housing need is not a simple topic and to provide you with anything approachinga comprehensive guide would require its own long report so this is a very short introduction.
There are different approaches to measuring housing need including not just future needbut also any previously unmet need (backlog). These approaches typically include analysis ofhousehold formation rates, sharing and concealed households, overcrowding, and trends inthe underlying population such as migration. Housing need calculations may also reference
affordability, any need arising from plans for economic growth, or emerge separately from acouncil’s Health and Wellbeing Strategy.
The complexity and different approaches to measuring housing need had led to a situation
where a skilled consultant could create a model with housing need numbers that match any
required narrative. To combat this issue and to meet their housing delivery targets, central
government introduced the Standard Method of calculating housing need (see box out).
2.1.9. Measuring Households
Counting and forecasting the number of households is an important part of most housingneed calculations, including the Standard Method. Household numbers are also regularlyreferenced when highlighting an historic lack of supply and the need to increase future
housing delivery. However, even measuring historic household numbers is difficult and local
authority data is limited (e.g. it’s not clear what has happened to household numbers sincethe 2011 Census). Forecasting household numbers is even more challenging and householdprojections have several inherent problems that limit their usefulness.
The first problem with household projections is that they are based on population
projections. As such they are highly dependent on the assumptions contained within the
population projections. Any changes in migration patterns (both domestic and international)
or natural change (births less deaths) will impact on the underling population projections. As
Figure 35 shows, the track record for population projections has not been great, sometimes
only getting it right for a period thanks to errors cancelling each other out (e.g. 1975 based).
Figure 35 – Population Estimates and Projections, UK
Source: MHCLG, ONS

80,000,000

2008 based

1965 based

75,000,000

2016 based

UK population

70,000,000

2004 based

65,000,000

1994 based
1985 based1975 based

60,000,000
55,000,000

Actual1955 based

50,000,000
45,000,000
1950

32

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The second and perhaps biggest problem with household projections is the household
representative rates (HHR) used to convert population into households. HHRs are theproportion of people in a specific demographic group who are the household reference
person (historically called the head of household). A simpler way to understand the HHR isin terms of household size.
The average household size had fallen during the 20th century and most householdprojections expected this trend to continue. However, as Figure 36 shows, it has remained
stuck at around 2.4 people per household over the last 20 years. There are several different
explanations for this including unaffordable and unavailable housing constraining household
formation amongst younger people and larger household sizes amongst migrants.
The assumptions on how household size will change in the future therefore have a verylarge effect on projected household numbers. Changes in these assumptions are also partly
responsible for the differences between the ONS published 2016 projections and previous
MHCLG versions. As Figure 36 shows, the 2016 based projections are ‘two-in-one’. The
period up to 2021 assumes a continuation of recent trends and could be considered a truer
projection as actually based on recent trends. Meanwhile the post 2021 period assumes afall in average household size and the effect of this can be seen in the ‘step’ in Figure 42.
Figure 36 – Average Household Size, England

Annual change in population

Source: MHCLG, ONS
2.90

Actual (per 2016-based)
2016-based
2014 -based
2008-based

2.80
2.70
2.60
2.50
2.40
2.30
2.20
2.10

2040

2037

2034

2031

2028

2025

2022

2019

2016

2013

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

2.00

The final problem is the most significant at a local level. It is the circularity of householdprojections due to households only being able to form if there is a home to move into.
For example, if a local authority is building many homes for people to move into then the
population will grow. When the next round of household projections are published, they
will, as projections of recent trends, reflect the recent population growth and show higher
household projections for the local authority. This can be seen in the ONS 2016 projections
with the high housing supply areas of Tower Hamlets, Aylesbury Vale, and Barking andDagenham projected to see the highest household growth rate between 2016 and 2021.
Meanwhile, a local authority with an unaffordable housing market and lower historic
housing delivery may see lower population growth. Future household projections will thenreflect this lower growth and the household projections will be low. Kensington and
Chelsea, the local authority with the highest average house price, is projected to see a fall in
the number of households between 2016 and 2021 in the ONS 2016 projections.
33

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Standard Method of Assessing Housing Need
MHCLG’s standard method takes a formulaic approach to calculating a minimum housingneed number. It’s a clearly defined three- step process involving:
1. Setting the baseline
2. An adjustment to take account of house price affordability
3. Capping the level of any increase
Setting the baseline housing need number simply relies on household projections for an
average household growth figure over 10 years. MHCLG recommend using the older 2014
based MHCLG household projections as the newer 2016 based ONS projections are much
lower (see Figure 37) and don’t add up to central government’s target of 300,000 net new
homes per year when used. This approach to setting the baseline raises all the problems
with household projections as highlighted in Section 2.1.9 and the 2014 based projections
include the warning that “They are not an assessment of housing need”.
Figure 37 – Net New Households by Region

Households per year

Source: ONS, MHCLG

80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000
0

Actual (2006-16)
2014 Projections (2019-29)
2016 Projections (2019-29)
Standard Method Estimate (2019-29)

London

South
East

East

West Yorkshire
Midlands&
Humber

South
West

East
Midlands

North
West

North
East

The second step adjusts the household projections depending on local housing affordability
as measured by workplace-based house price to earnings ratios. It increases the housingneed number by 0.25% for each 1% the ratio is above 4. For example, a house price toearnings ratio of 6 = ((6-4)/4)x0.25 = 12.5% increase. Broadly, this approach increases the
housing need number in areas with high house prices and leaves it unadjusted in areas withlow house prices. The use of market signals to assess need is useful but house price toearnings ratios are simplistic (Section 1.1.2) and may not reflect the actual underlying
affordability issues in local markets, including for those areas with ratios of 4 or below.
The final step caps the increase calculated in step two depending on the “current status of
relevant strategic policies for housing” to ensure the deliverability of any target.
The standard method helps avoid the complexities and problems arising from the varying
approaches previously used. However, the two data sets it relies on create their own
problems. For example, the cost of housing would be a better affordability measure thanthe cost of houses, but data is limited. Meanwhile recent trends in household formation
may have limited relation to wider strategies for and limitations posed by infrastructure,
employment, natural resources, and other development constraints or opportunities.
34

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.1.10.

Measuring Housing Need Backlog

The backlog in unmet housing need typically assumes the historic under-supply of housing
has prevented potential households from forming. As mentioned previously in Section 2.1.8,
there are several different ways of identifying unmet housing need.
The simplest way to calculate backlog need involves comparing actual household formation
to household projections for the period. However, this is a crude approach due to the
problems with household projections covered in Section 2.1.9. Other ways of assessing
backlog include measuring housing affordability (see Section 1.1), sharing, concealed andovercrowded households, homelessness, and housing waiting lists.
Data for some of these measures is easier to find or calculate than others, especially at local
authority level. Housing waiting lists are published by MHCLG though, as Figure 38 shows,there have been changes in their criteria that mean they’re not an accurate measure ofneed. There’s also a large amount of data on local authority level homelessness publishedby MHCLG though care needs to be taken with changes in definition over time (Section 2.5).
Figure 38 – Households on Local Authorities' Housing Waiting Lists, England

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0

1997

Households

Source: MHCLG

Measuring sharing, concealed, and overcrowded households is more difficult. ONS publish
data on families and households which includes households by number of people and adults
living at home but only at a UK level. They also publish household counts by region. The
English Housing Survey provides some national data but the best source for local level datais the Census. However, this limits the ability to monitor changes over time.
Figure 39 – Percent of Young Adults Aged 20-34 Living at Home, UK

35

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

Percent of population

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
23%
22%
21%
20%
19%
18%

Rural and Urban Areas
There are many ways to segment and analyse the need and supply of housing including
age, income, household type, property type, tenure, etc. However, it is also important tounderstand the physical geography of an area such as topography and land use.
Recent decades have seen different trends in population growth depending on whether
the area is urban or rural. Figure 40 shows that many, though not all, urban areas haveseen considerable growth in both young and older people since 2001. However, manyrural areas have only seen growth in the number of old people. This raises a number ofquestions about the need for services and amenities along with the longer-term survivalof rural communities.
Figure 40 – Population Growth 2011-17 by Age, Rural/Urban Classification, and Region
Source: Calculated using ONS
LondonEast of England
East Midlands
South East
South WestWest Midlands

Rural - Aged Under 65
Rural - Aged 65 & above
Urban - Aged Under 65
Urban - Aged 65 & above

Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
North East
-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Total population growth, 2011-17

Rural communities also have the challenge of second homes to deal with. Figure 41 showsthat rural areas typically have higher proportions of homes with no usual residents. Highconcentrations of second homes create many housing challenges including unaffordable
homes for local residents but they are possibly counterbalanced by the contributions they
make to the local economy. Local authorities should be alert to these challenges.
Figure 41 – Proportion of Household Spaces with No Usual Residents
Source: 2011 Census
South West
North West
East
Yorkshire and The Humber
North East
South East
East Midlands
West Midlands

Rural

London
0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Urban
9%

Percent of household spaces

36

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities10%2.2. Lack of New Supply
The most popular explanation for many of the issues facing housing is that we have notbeen building enough new homes. A typical argument is that new-build supply has
consistently failed to meet the projected rate of household formation and this has caused
high house prices, falling home-ownership, and constrained household formation (Figure42). Increasing new housing supply to meet projected household formation rates or above iswidely seen as the solution. This approach characterises central government’s housing
policy with a target of 300,000 net new homes per year in England.
Figure 42 – Annual Change in Households, England

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000

2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-20

2014-based
2018-192017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132011-122010-11

2009-11

2008-09

2007-08

2008-based
Actual (per 2016-based)
2006-072005-06

2004-05

2002-030

2003-04

2006-based
2016-based

50,0002001-02

Annual change in households

Source: MHCLG, ONS
300,000

Unfortunately, this explanation does not reflect the realities of the housing market. Housing
supply and demand is more than just new build and net household formation. Available
supply is predominantly the second-hand market as new-build sales are a relatively small
proportion of total transactions (see Figure 43) and less than 1% of the existing dwellingstock. Housing demand is the number of people or companies willing and financially able tobuy. That is determined by many different factors, but the cost and availability of mortgage
debt are perhaps the most important. Meanwhile, household projections are not anindicator of demand but, at best, a crude indicator of housing need (see Section 2.1.9).
The evidence for a lack of supply at a national level is limited and open to interpretation.
High house prices (Section 1.2) and recent falls in home-ownership (Section 1.6) have more
to do with the cost and availability of mortgage debt than the lack of supply. Meanwhile,
housing costs are high for renters but do not appear to have risen significantly (Section
1.1.5). Demographics show constrained household formation relative to previous trends andso it appears new supply has been too low to meet housing aspirations and probably too
low to meet housing need in recent decades. However, there are other factors that havealso played a part in suppressing household formation including larger migrant household
sizes (Section 2.1.9) and, in the circular nature of the housing market, high house prices.
There may be limited evidence for a national lack of supply but it does appear to be an
important factor in London and its surrounding commuter areas. There may also be
localised housing shortages elsewhere, particularly of specific property types or tenure ofhomes. Ideally, there would be local cost of housing (rents) data to show this but no suchseries exists.
37

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Given that a lack of supply is not the biggest driver of house price rises (Section 1.2), it is not
surprising that academic evidence shows increasing new supply (within realisticallydeliverable levels) will probably only prevent future price rises rather than significantly
improve current levels of house price affordability. Even then it will take many years,
possibly even decades to have a lasting effect on the market.
Increasing housing supply may not significantly improve house price affordability or increasehome-ownership but it is still an essential part of the overall solution to many of the issues
facing housing, and not just in areas with the highest house prices. Building new homes,
particularly affordable homes, can help reduce the cost of housing for renters. It can also be
used to better match the existing housing stock to local need, demand, and affordability.
Although new supply typically only accounts for 1% of the existing housing stock each, it canover time be used to improve the quality of housing in a local market, deal with shortages of
specific property types, or help deal with demographic changes such as students or theageing population.
LACK OF NEW SUPPLY SUMMARY: A lack of new supply is identified as the cause for manyof the issues facing housing. However, the evidence is not conclusive. Building many new
homes is unlikely to significantly improve house price affordability or increase homeownership but is an essential part of the solution in all local authorities, not just thosewith high house prices.

38

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.3. Turnover of Existing Housing Stock
Building new homes is an essential part of making housing available for everyone that needs
it. However, the lack of new homes is only part of the problem as they only account foraround 10-12% of all residential transactions. The second-hand market tends to provide
most of the available housing supply at any given time. Unfortunately, turnover in theexisting stock is low with UK residential transactions stuck at around 1.2 million per year forthe last five years. That equates to around 4.2% of total stock selling each year compared toa pre-2008 average of 6.8% (Figure 43).
Figure 43 – Market Sales and Housebuilding as % of Existing Dwellings, England and Wales

As % of existing dwellings

Source: MHCLG, ONS, HMRC
12.0%

Housebuilding
Market Sales

10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017

0.0%

While turnover at a national level has remained stuck at around 1.2 million transactions per
year, there has been considerable geographic divergence in recent years. Changes to stamp
duty, unaffordable house prices, and changes in buyer sentiment (in part due to Brexit) havenegatively impacted on London and other higher house price areas. Transactions in London
are down 20% over the last five years with bigger percentage fall in central boroughs.
Meanwhile transactions in the midlands and north of England have seen the opposite effect.
Activity by investors may have been hit but first-time buyers have been able to replace
them, for example transactions across the North West are up 17% over the last five years.
Low housing turnover is an issue because, amongst other things, it can limit labour mobility,
reduce the tax base for stamp duty, hurt economic activity linked to household moves andresult in a poor allocation of homes, as households adjust more slowly to their changing
needs. This last point is related to the popular notion of the housing ladder.
The housing ladder suggests an ability for households to move from first-time buyer,
through a step or steps to the family home, a possible downsizing move for empty-nesters,
followed by a possible move to a retirement home. For many years this housing ladder has
characterised and informed the understanding of the housing market and guided
government policy. This can be seen in its frequent references in policies targeting first-timebuyers and home-ownership.
39

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

It is true that more people are successfully getting on the housing ladder. Home-ownershipis increasing again (Section 1.6) and, as Figure 44 shows, first-time buyer numbers havenearly recovered back to their pre-crash peak. However, the number of mortgaged movers
is still 50% below their 2006/07 levels and has shown no sign of improving since 2010. It
appears the housing ladder is broken thanks to a combination of factors including lending
conditions, income growth, housing equity growth, and house price affordability.
Figure 44 – Housing Market Transactions by Buyer Type, UK

Transactions per year

Source: HM Revenue and Customs, UK Finance

800,000

Mortgaged First Time Buyers

Mortgaged Home Movers

700,000

Mortgaged Buy-to-Let

Cash Only

600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

Dec-18Dec-17

Dec-16

Dec-15

Dec-14

Dec-13

Dec-12

Dec-11

Dec-10

Dec-09Dec-08Dec-07

Dec-06

Dec-050

A broken housing ladder has consequences for policies and solutions that seek to encourage
first-time buyers into home-ownership but do not give enough consideration to the buyer’s
ability to move freely when their circumstances change. For example, home-ownershipproducts like micro-flats may be brilliantly designed for one or two people but can quickly
become unacceptable when the owner’s circumstances change. Other financial products
designed to increase home-ownership may also limit buyers’ ability to move up the ladderas their gains in housing equity are limited or higher costs prevent saving. Home-ownershipis the aspiration for most people but reaching for it too soon could have longer term
consequences for some.
TURNOVER OF EXISTING STOCK SUMMARY: The low turnover of existing housing stock is a
big barrier to a functioning housing market. It also raises the risk of unintended
consequences for first-time buyers that rush into home-ownership. The low turnover ofexisting stock has had limited interest from policy makers.

40

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.4. Distribution of Housing
In many local authorities, and indeed nationally, there is enough housing for everyone thatneeds it. The issue is that it’s unevenly distributed. Analysis of the 2015 English Housing
Survey showed that there were 54 million people living in households. According to the
bedroom standard they would need 37 million bedrooms to be appropriately housed.
Instead, the survey showed there were 63 million bedrooms available across the country.
That’s enough bedrooms for everyone to have their own with 9 million spare.
Figure 45 – Household Population, Required Bedrooms, and Actual Bedrooms, England
Source: Estimated using English Housing Survey 2015
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0Household Population

Required Bedrooms

Actual Bedrooms

Further analysis using the 2011 Census andRegionpresented in the table opposite shows that all
Calculated using 2011
regions except London have more bedrooms than Census
household residents. Some of those ‘excess’South Westbedrooms will be in truly vacant and unused
East Midlands
homes but much of it will reflect second homes or North East
spare bedrooms. The under-occupation of
North Westhousing is a growing issue as the population ages Eastand children leave the family home. Figure 46
South Eastshows that 53% of owner-occupier households
Yorkshire and The Humber
are under-occupying their home compared to just West Midlands
10% of social rented households.
LondonBedrooms per
Household
Resident
1.21
1.20
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.17
1.17
1.15
0.98

Figure 46 – Under-Occupation by Tenure, England
Source: English Housing Surveys
60%
Owner OccupiersSocial Renters

Percent of households ineach tenure

Private Renters

50%

41

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

40%
30%
20%
10%

2017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132011-122010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-072005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

1999-00

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

1995-960%The distribution of housing can be measured in more than just homes or bedrooms. For
example, the amount of floor area available per dwelling, household, or person is anotherapproach. Section 3.1.1 looks at the size of dwellings including common misunderstandings.
Unfortunately, there is no simple solution to the uneven distribution of housing. Someunused housing is in the wrong location, too far from employment opportunities. Much of
the under-used housing is held by older generations still living in family homes long after
their children have left. Any suggestion of forcing these people out of homes they own
presents severe political, not to say moral, challenges and there are still too few affordable
and appropriate options to encourage potential downsizers. The distribution of housing
should clearly be considered in the context of the existing stock and new supply but isunlikely to provide a substantial solution to other housing issues any time soon.
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING SUMMARY: Housing is unevenly distributed. Some have morethan they regularly need while others have less than they need. Unfortunately, the ability
to put this under-used housing to more use is limited.

42

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.5. Homelessness
There are many causes of homelessness, both structural and individual, but the availability(and affordability and suitability) of housing is an important factor. Rough sleepers areperhaps the most visible of all the housing issues covered in this report and the number
recorded in the MHCLG statistics has more than doubled over the last eight years. However,there are some concerns about the data quality given the data collection methodology.
Information on ‘statutory’ homelessness, where local authorities are legally obliged toprovide accommodation, is readily available from MHCLG. It is more robust than the roughsleeping data though it’s worth noting the recent transition to a new data collection regime
may cause some slight inconsistencies with older data. This data shows that statutory
homelessness has increased in recent years and highlights the challenges faced by local
authorities as they struggle to cope house people and so spend more on a rising number ofhouseholds living in temporary accommodation (Figure 47).
Figure 47 – Households in Temporary Accommodation
Source: MHCLG Table TA1
120,000

All Households

Households

100,000

Household With Children

80,00060,00040,00020,000Q4 2018

Q4 2017

Q4 2016

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

Q4 2012

Q4 2011

Q4 2010

Q4 2009

Q4 2008

Q4 2007

Q4 2006

Q4 2005

Q4 2004

Q4 2003

Q4 2002

Q4 2001

Q4 2000

Q4 1999

Q4 1998

0

Crisis’s The Homeless Monitor shows that the ‘vast bulk’ of the rise in statutory
homelessness is due to evictions from the private rented sector. Figure 48 highlights thisissue with the termination of an assured shorthold tenancy given as the biggest single
reason for loss of the last home (other reasons is a broad group).
Figure 48 – Reason for Loss of Last Settled Home for Those Owed A Prevention or Relief
Duty by Local Authority. Q2 2018, England
Source: MHCLG Statutory Homelessness Table A2
Loss of rented or tied accommodation due to: Reasons
other than termination of assured shorthold tenancy
Non -violent relationship breakdown with partner
Violent relationship breakdown with partner or
associated persons
Family and friends no longer willing or able toaccommodate
Loss of rented or tied accommodation due to:Termination of assured shorthold tenancy
Other reasons
0

4,000

8,000

12,00016,00020,000Decisions

43

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The Crisis report and others suggest that changes to Local Housing Allowance (LHA) is amajor driver of this trend (see Section 1.4 for more on LHA). The increase in homelessness
has led to an increase in the number of households (and children) living in temporary
accommodation over the last eight years. Meanwhile there’s an unknown number of hidden
homeless: people sleeping on friend’s sofas, in cars and vans, or in other unsuitableaccommodation.
HOMELESSNESS SUMMARY: There are multiple causes of homelessness but it appears
changes to Local Housing Allowance are a big driver of recent increases in people being
made homeless from the private rented sector.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.6. Weak Demographic Demand
In some areas the biggest issue isn’t a lack of housing (new build or existing) but too much
relative to demographic demand. The UK’s population has grown by 18% over the last 30
year but, as Figure 49 shows, some regions have seen much stronger population growth
while others have seen limited growth. Understanding how and why the local population ischanging is essential to understanding local housing availability issues.
Figure 49 – Total Population Growth, 1987-2017
Source: ONS
LondonEast
East Midlands
South WestSouth East
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
North East
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Population growth, 1987-2017

Weak demographic demand can be closely linked to weak economic demand (Section 1.7)
where a lack of local employment opportunities forces people to move elsewhere. However,this is not always the case and it’s sometimes difficult to isolate the causes. To understandweak demographic demand, you need to build a full picture of the underlying demographic
trends including the stock and flow of population change.
Figure 50 – Components of Change in Population, 2016 to 2017
Source: ONS
East Midlands
West Midlands
South West
East
LondonSouth East

Births minus Deaths

North WestInternal Migration Net

Yorkshire & Humber

International Migration Net
Other

North East
-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

People as a % of existing 2016 population

45

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

2.5%

ONS data is very useful for understanding demographic trends including natural change andmigration by age. For example, it shows London has consistently seen a net outflow ofpeople to the rest of the UK since at least the 1970s and probably since the 1940s. Despite
this, London has still seen very high population growth over the last thirty years thanks tointernational migrants and a high birth rate (as Figure 50 shows). It appears that weak
demographic demand has not been a problem for most of London since the early 1980s.
Another example of the need to look closely at underlying trends in demographics whenassessing weak demand can be found in areas that have rapidly ageing populations. Thisageing could reflect weak demand as young people move away for work or study and leavebehind an older population. However, an ageing population could also reflect wealthierolder people move into the area, for example in coastal and rural retirement hotspots as per
Figure 51. Unfortunately, the ONS data does not include any indicators for wealth, income,or housing tenure of recent movers.
Areas with weak economic demand highlight the need to understand housing at a local
level. It also highlights that fixing local housing issues can be more than just about housing.
Figure 51 – Existing Population and Net Migration of People Aged 65+ by Local Authority
Net migraiton of people aged 65+ as% of total population

Source: ONS
0.6%
0.5%

Fylde

0.4%
0.3%

RotherEast Devon
West Somerset
West Dorset
North Norfolk
Christchurch
East Dorset

0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Population aged 65+ as % of total population

WEAK DEMOGRAPHIC DEMAND SUMMARY: Weak housing demand may show some areas
have too much housing but local authorities need to take care and properly understandlocal demographic trends.

46

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

3. Suitability of Housing
Housing is unsuitable for everyone that needs it. The existing housing stock is underincreasing strain as the population rapidly grows, ages, and changes how it uses housing.
Unfortunately, the housing stock is far slower and sometimes unable to respond to thesechanges.
The housing stock is also ageing. Over 20% (Figure 52) of all homes were built more than
100 years ago and, at current rates of demolition, existing homes will have to last over 2,000
years. An ageing stock means that too many existing homes (and some new ones) are not ofan appropriate quality while nearly as much money is spent on the repair and maintenanceof existing housing as on building new homes.
Figure 52 – Build Period of Properties by Tenure, England, 2017
Source: English Housing Survey 2017/18
25%

Social Rented
Private Rented

Percent of all dwellings

20%

Owner Occupied

15%

10%

5%

0%
Pre 1919

1919-44

1945-64

1965-80

1981-02

Post 2002

Build period

An ageing housing stock also raises concerns about its environmental impact and ability todeal with changing climate conditions. Meanwhile, the ageing population requires housingthat is flexible and can be adapted to changing needs. However, the need for housing to beflexible is not just limited to older people. Changing needs amongst younger people haveseen growing numbers living in poor quality private rented homes that once would’ve been
occupied by families.
This section of the report will look at the different ways of measuring the suitability of
housing and what that tells us about local housing challenges.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

3.1. Measuring Suitability
This section of the report provides a brief look at the various ways of measuring suitability.
3.1.1. Measuring the Suitability of Housing
Measuring whether housing is suitable or not can be challenging. Housing that is acceptablefor one person may be unacceptable to another despite having the same personal
circumstances. We can, however, measure the housing stock in different ways to assess
how well it may or may not be suitable. For example, whether it can house an ageing
population, appropriately house people with a long-term illness or disability, or cope withclimate change.
Some of the different ways of measuring the housing stock have been covered in Section
2.1.1 but there are other ways in which the suitability of housing can be measured. These
include its quality (see the next section for more detail), it’s energy efficiency, its size interms of bedroom or floor area relative to its residents (Section 2.4). Unfortunately, there’s
limited local level data available to assess the suitability of housing in some of these ways.
It’s also important to consider the suitability of housing with regards to any local authority
aspirations for growth. For example, a local authority in the north of England with a low
proportion of higher-rate council tax properties (Figure 53) may seek to increase the supplyof higher value homes to attract different types of people to the local area while also
ensuring a broader base of dwellings to generate higher council tax receipts. However, anyplans for growth should also account for other issues such as transport, power, water,
broadband, and other strategic resources required for successful local communities.
Figure 53 – Council Tax Band by Region
Source: VOA

A

B

20%

30%

C

D

E

F

G

H

70%

80%

LondonSouth East
East
South WestWest Midlands
East Midlands
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
North East
0%

10%

40%

50%

60%

90%

Percent of dwellings

48

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities100%

3.1.2. Measuring Housing Quality
Measuring the quality of housing can be difficult as it typically requires a framework tojudge it against. The English Housing Survey is the best source for data on the quality of
housing in England but care needs to be taken when interpreting some of the results given
the differences in build period (Figure 52) and dwelling type (Figure 54) across tenures. Local
level data on quality is more limited with some available on the Decent Homes standard for
local authority and housing association homes but limited information is available for theprivate sector beyond the size of property.
Figure 54 – Dwelling Type by Tenure, England, 2017
% of dwellings in each tenure

Source: English Housing Survey

Owner Occupied

40%

Private Rented

Local Authority

Housing Association

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Small
TerraceMedium/Large
Terrace

Semi
Detached

Detached

Bungalow

Converted
Flat

Purpose
Built Flat,
Low RisePurpose
Built Flat,
High Rise

The Quality of New Homes
The focus on increasing the number of new homes built since 2013 also coincided with anincrease in dis-satisfaction with the quality of new homes. Widespread press reports andgovernment attention have led to increased pressure on housebuilders to improve thequality of their homes. The latest survey of new build customers from the Home Builders
Federation (HBF) suggests that satisfaction rates are improving again though negative
reports from consumers continue. The HBF also provides a star rating for individual
builders. For example, Barratt received a five star ranking in the latest survey while
Persimmon received three stars.
Figure 55 – New Home Dis-Satisfaction
Percent of weighted
responses

Source: HBF National New Home Customer Satisfaction Survey
25%
20%

Dissatisfied with the quality of their home
Would not recommend the builder to a friend

15%
10%
5%

49

Oct 17-Sep 18

Oct 16-Sep 17

Oct 15-Sep 16

Oct 14-Sep 15

Oct 13-Sep 14

Oct 12-Sep 13

Oct 11-Sep 12

Oct 10-Sep 11

Oct 09-Sep 10

Oct 08-Sep 09

Oct 07-Sep 08

Oct 06-Sep 07

Oct 05-Sep 06

0%

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

The Size of New Build Homes
A frequent complaint about new build homes is that they are very small. However, datafrom Energy Performance Certificates suggests that new build homes are similar in size tothe existing stock, at around 91m². Figure 56 below compares the size distribution for
new build homes to market sale homes in 2014/15/16 and shows they are similar.
Figure 56 – Comparison of Floor Area by Transaction Type, 2014/15/16
Source: MHCLG EPC data

% of EPCs by type

3.5%

Market Sale - Flat
Market Sale - House

3.0%

New Build - Flat

2.5%

New Build - House

2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

0.0%
Total floor area (m²)

3.1.3. Measuring the Environment Impact of Housing
The English Housing Survey is the best source for long-term trends in the energy efficiencyof housing but Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data published by MHCLG is also very
useful. The EPC data includes average energy efficiency ratings, energy use, carbon dioxide
emissions, fuel costs, average floor area, and numbers of certificates recorded by local
authority. Figure 57 below provides an overview of EPCs lodged in 2018 across England by
their energy efficiency rating and type of dwelling.
Figure 57 – Number of Energy Performance Certificates Lodged by Type and Energy
Efficiency Rating, England, 2018

Number of EPCs lodged

Source: MHCLG
600,000

Park home
Flat/Maisonette

500,000

House

400,000

Bungalow
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Rating A

50

Rating B

Rating C

Rating D

Rating E

Rating F

Rating G

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

3.2. The Quality of Housing
Housing quality has improved in recent years according to many metrics but there are still
substantial numbers of poor-quality homes across the country. There are many ways tomeasure the quality of housing including the Decent Homes standard, the Housing Healthand Safety rating system (HHSRS), damp, and dwelling size amongst others.
The Decent Homes programme was introduced in 2000 at a time when there was asubstantial backlog in required social housing repairs. The programme was successful in
reducing the overall number and proportion of non-decent homes but it failed to meet its
target of 100% decent homes by 2010. The latest English Housing Survey (Figure 58) showsthat 19% of all homes are not decent with 13% of social rented homes still failing to meetthe standard. Although there is still room for improvement in the social rented sector, it is
the private rented sector that has the highest proportion of non-decent homes with 1.35
million non-decent homes (25% of private rented homes). This may partly reflect thatprivate rented homes are predominantly owned by small-scale landlords owning one or two
typically older period properties.
Figure 59 – HHSRS Category 1 Hazards

Source: English Housing Survey

Source: English Housing Survey

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Owner Occupied

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

Private Rented

2007

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Housing Association

Percent of dwellings

Local Authority

2006

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2006

Percent of dwellings

Figure 58 – Non-Decent Homes

Another way to measure the quality of housing is using the Housing Health and Safety rating
system (HHSRS). The HHSRS was introduced in 2004 and is a risk-based assessment tool that
identifies hazards in dwellings and evaluates their potential effects on the health and safetyof occupants and their visitors. This recent House of Commons briefing paper provides auseful summary of the rating system including the ongoing review.
The English Housing Survey reports the number of dwellings that contain a HHSRS category
1 hazard (Figure 59) which is one that presents a serious and immediate risk to a person's
health and safety. The latest English Housing Survey shows that 11% of all dwellings containa category 1 hazard, ranging from 6% in the social rented sector to 14% in the private rented
sector.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

Damp housing can have serious implications for residents, particularly for children and theelderly. The latest English Housing Survey shows that 3.7% of dwellings have at least one
damp problem, with condensation/mould the biggest issue. Damp is a bigger issue in therented sectors, with 5.6% of social rented homes and 7.2% of private rented sector homes
reporting at least one damp problem. The higher levels of damp in the private rented sector
are a serious concern given the large number of young children now living in the tenure.
Figure 60 – Damp Problems, by Tenure, England, 2017

Percent of dwellings

Source: English Housing Survey 2017/18
8%
Rising Damp

Penetrating Damp
Condensation/Mould
Any Damp Problems

7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%

Owner Occupied

Private Rented

Local Authority

Housing Association

Regular reports that housing in England is amongst the smallest in Europe are incorrect. The
English Housing Survey reports an average size of 94m², about average for Europe.
However, there are differences across tenure (Figure 61) with the owner -occupied sector
largest (107m²), followed by the private rented sector (77m²) and the social rented sector
smallest (66m²). Some of these differences will reflect the underlying mix of dwelling types(Figure 54) but adjusting for this still shows a space premium for owner-occupiers.
Figure 61 – Number of Dwellings by Tenure and Useable Floor Area, England, 2017
Source: English Housing Survey 2017/18
8,000,000

Number of dwellings

Housing Association

Local Authority

Private Rented

Owner Occupied

70 to 89 m²

90 to 109 m²

110 or more m²

7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0Less than 50 m²

50 to 69 m²

QUALITY OF HOUSING SUMMARY: There are still too many poor-quality homes across all
tenures and poor-quality housing in the private rented sector will be an issue in many
areas.

52

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

3.3. Ageing Population
The population is ageing and that has serious implications for the housing market. The
number of people aged 60 and above living in England has increased from 10 million to 13
million over the last twenty years (Figure 62) and currently make up 23% of the total
population. They are projected to rise to nearly 18 million over the next twenty years,
accounting for 30% of the total population. A larger older population has significant
consequences for the economy, healthcare, and housing.
Figure 62 – Population Aged 60 and Above, England
Source: ONS Population Estimates and Projections
20,000,000

75 & over

18,000,000

60-74

Population

16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000

2051

2041

2031

2021

2011

2001

1991

1981

1971

0

The population is ageing primarily due to the large post-war baby boomer generationentering retirement and living for longer than previous generations. As a predominantly
home-owning generation, many (but not all) live in homes worth much more than they paid
for them. As people age their housing requirements may change and healthcare needs
increase. Therefore, many expect downsizing to become a bigger trend. This would also help
with older people under-occupying their homes as per Section 2.4 but, unfortunately, it’s
not that simple. Very few older people move home willingly. Figure 63 shows 76% of people
aged 60 and above have not moved home in the last ten years. Meanwhile most older
people live in average priced homes so have little financial incentive or even ability to moveinto purpose built older peoples’ housing. Therefore, most older people who do move into
the limited supply of purpose-built housing do so out of necessity rather than desire.
Figure 63 – Length of Residence by Single Year of Age, UK
Percent of people in each SYOA

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec 201810 years or longer

5 years, less than 10

3 years, less than 5

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Single year of age

53

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

85+Given the limited supply of purpose-built older peoples’ housing, low levels of demand as
people want to continue living in their existing home, and limited financial capacity to pay a
premium for new build properties in their local market, it appears that their existing homes
will have to become more flexible. Unfortunately, homes built more recently are better
suited for older people with higher proportions containing accessibility features than thosebuilt prior to 2001. Given the challenges and changing needs of older people, greater
consideration will have to be taken about how to adapt the housing stock to ensure theirneeds can be met in their existing home.
Figure 64 – Accessibility features present, by age of dwelling, 2014
Source: English Housing Survey 2015/15
WC at entrance levelno change in floor level/trip steps at entrance level
wide door and circulation space
flush threshold < 15mm
level accessroom on entrance level suitable for a bedroom
wheelchair accessible WC at entrance level
bathroom at entrance level2001 onward homesstraight stairs with landings>900mm

pre 2001 homes
0%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percent of dwellings

AGEING POPULATION SUMMARY: The population is ageing but it appears likely that mostwill continue to live in their existing homes for as long as possible. Therefore, it’s essentialthat we have a housing stock flexible enough to adapt to these changing needs.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

3.4. Climate Change
Climate change is happening now and there is clear scientific evidence that the global
climate is warming. Housing is a contributor to the problem but can also be an importantpart of the solution to one of the biggest issues facing not just the UK but the world.
A recent report by the Committee on Climate Change concluded that homes in the UK are
inadequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. It reported that “Greenhousegas emission reductions from UK housing have stalled, and efforts to adapt the housing
stock for higher temperatures, flooding and water scarcity are falling far behind the increasein risk from the changing climate. The quality, design and use of homes across the UK must
be improved now to address the challenges of climate change”.
Much of the existing housing stock in this country was built some time ago with Figure 52
showing that 20% was built more than 100 years ago and over 50% was built more than 50
years ago. Given current rates of housebuilding and demolitions, it appears likely that thesehomes will have to last well into the future. However, many are ill-prepared for a changing
climate.
Figure 65 shows many existing homes still have low energy performance ratings and theEnglish Housing Survey recently reported that there has been little improvement in energy
efficiency in recent years (as measured by the Standard Assessment Procedure). Substantial
investment into the existing housing stock will be required to make it suitable for a changing
climate.
Figure 65 – Energy Performance Rating by Existing and New Build Dwellings, England, 2018
Source: MHCLG Energy Performance Certificates

Existing Dwellings

New Build Dwellings

A

A

B

B

C

C

D

D

E

E

F

F

G

G
0%

10%

20%

30%

Number of EPCs

40%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Number of EPCs

Unfortunately, these findings apply not just to the existing ageing dwelling stock but also to
the new homes currently being built. Comparing the energy performance ratings for new
and existing homes (Figure 65 above) shows that new homes are typically more energy
efficient than existing homes. However, too many only meet the bare minimum of
standards. It’s reasonable to assume that the costs of retrofitting recently built homes
would be much more than ensuring the homes are suitable when first built so more needs
to be done to ensure all homes meet the highest possible standards.
55

Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities

It is not just the physical properties of the home that determine whether it is adequate forthe challenges of a changing climate but also its physical location. Ensuring new homes areplanned for appropriately with regards to water availability, sustainable transport, and floodrisk are all essential. As Figure 66 shows, an increasing proportion of new homes (asmeasured by new addresses created) are being built in National Flood Zone 3 areas. These
are areas which, ignoring the presence of flood defences, have a 1% or greater annual
probability of fluvial flooding or a 0.5% or greater annual probability of tidal flooding.
The increased pressure to deliver many more new homes will inevitably put pressure on
local authorities to identify suitable locations for new development. In doing so, they shouldtake great care to account for not just the current challenges and limitations but also thosearising in the future from a changing climate.
Figure 66 – New Residential Addresses Created in National Flood Zone 3% of all new residential
addresses

Source: MHCLG
12%10%

Non-Previously Developed Land
Previously Developed Land

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2013-142014-152015-16

2016-17ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT AND CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY: Climate change is a major
global issue and the housing stock is inadequately prepared for the challenge. Local
authorities should plan appropriately for the risks that climate change will bring.

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Understanding Local Housing Markets: Advice and Guidance for Local Authorities