Aligning Climate Change andSustainable Development Policies

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India(shukla@iimahd.ernet.in)Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event“Global Challenges toward Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD)”Nairobi, Kenya, November 8, 2006

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?
 Climate change is a derivative problem of development
 Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities
 Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive &expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century
 Strategies for dealing with sustainable development andclimate change have many common elements, and aligningthese would deliver co-benefits

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

Aligning Development and Climate by Shifting the Frontier

Climate Quality

Economic/social Indicator

National Development Targets

Economic/social Indicator

Climate Goal

Technology &Institutional Innovations;Co-benefits

Climate Quality

Overcoming Conflict by Shifting the “frontier” though:• Innovations in technology & institutions• Targeted technology innovations, investment and deployment• Aligning diverse interests of multiple stakeholder• Sequence of policies and measures to accrue co-benefits• International and regional cooperation
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change
MDG and global targets

India’s National plan targets

Interface with Climate Change

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty andhunger• Double the per capita income by 2012

• Income effect would enhancechoices for cleaner fuels andadaptive capacity

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who suffer fromhunger• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Contain population growth to 16.2%
between 2001-2011

Goal 7: Ensure environmentalsustainability• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

Targets: Integrate SD principles in country
policies/ programs to reverse loss ofenvironmental resources• Sustained access to potable drinking waterto all villages by 2007

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion ofpeople without sustainable access to safe
drinking water• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies• Reduce GHG Emissions due tolower population• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced
GHG and local emissions; lower
fossil imports; reduced pressure onland, resources and ecosystems• Higher adaptive capacity to fromenhanced supply of water, health &education in rural areas

Influencing Energy Transitions

Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption

80%

How to transit toModern Biomass?

60%

Food Security?

TraditionalBiomass
40%

Domestic Resource: +ve

Coal Direct Employment: +ve
Oil
20%
Fuel Supply?
Waste disposal? Nuclear
Safety?

0%
1952

1960

1970

1980

1990

Energy Security: -ve
Foreign Exchange: -ve

En. Security:+Ve

Geopolitical Risk: HighGas Foreign Exchange: -veHydro
2001

Regional water disputes?
Indirect Benefits

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

South-Asia Energy Cooperation

Integrated South-Asia Energy Market

Spillover Benefits:• 16 MW additional Hydropower• Flood control• Lower energy prices would enhancecompetitiveness of regional industries

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative$ Billion% GDP

from 2010 to 2030

Energy60 Exa Joule

321

0.87

CO2 Equiv.

5.1 Billion Ton

280.08

SO250 Million Ton

100.03

Total359

0.98

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

CO2 Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms

1.10

Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity
Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms

Fossil Electricity with Reforms
Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh

0.90

Total Electricity w/o Reforms

Cumulative CO2 not Emitted:

140 million ton
Total Electricity with Reforms
0.70

0.50
1990

1992

1994

1996

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

1998

2000

2001

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on InfrastructureMonsoon Rainfall (2050)

Maintenance Cost Curve

Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability

Probability of Occurrence

ChangePresentlimate
C
More number ofdays with >200mm rainfall Very highnumber of dayswith >200 mmrainfall

Less numberofdays with >200mm rainfall

Light andspread-over rain

Future Climate
Heavy andNumber of days with concentrated rain

> 200mm rainfall

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

Repair and Maintenance Costs

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate

2000

Cost with adverse Climate
Change and Deforestation

Cost with adverse
Climate Change

Conventional
Bath-Tub Curve20202040

2060

2080

2100

Conclusions
 Opportunities to mainstream climate concerns indevelopment actions exist everywhere; and more so indeveloping countries.
 Climate centric actions could miss opportunities which
may deliver development and climate co-benefits.
 Pathways to “Low Carbon” and “Climate Resistant”
societies are best found if viewed through thesustainability lens.
 Cost-effective transition to Low Carbon Society is not
automatic. It would require crafting strategies that aligndevelopment and climate policies and actions throughsustainability goals.

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies