Climatechange?
TA
HTS'T
WHA

Global surface temperature is rising.
It will probably be 1.5 °C higher at the end of the century
compared with the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).
Biodiversity, coastal regions, the oceans, health and even our cultural
heritage are affected by the impacts of climate change.
This was the essential message of the 5th reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2014.

At a time when France issetting itself ambitious targets*,
including cutting its greenhousegas emissions by 40% by 2030,
it is essential that everyone
understands the complex
issues of climate change
and the greenhouse effect.
*Bill relating to energy transition
for green growth.

Because in France, likeanywhere else in the world,
no-one can consider
themselves protected. Changes
in the behaviour of certain
migratory birds, the life cycle ofcertain plants and an increasein the average sea level alreadyindicate that the impacts ofglobal warming are being felt
very close to home.

There is still time to dosomething about it, but wemust act quickly. Solutions
already exist at all levels forcutting greenhouse gas
emissions (mitigation) andfor adapting to the effects
of climate change.

www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr

A complex PHENOMENON  
is under way
In 2012 the world's average temperature had risen 0.89 °C compared with the averagefor the 20th century. It could go up to 5.3 °C during the 21st century if we do not control
our greenhouse gas emissions.

stIn 2012
the world'saveragetemperature rose 0.89 °C
compared with theaverage for the 20thcentury

se at leaerids act neednetr har youie lon
Sc over30years

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rve o c ate
se ds. T a clim
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ist pent g2100

obsioervat

65

4.8

43
2
1

1.1

In
summer it could
increase from
1.3 ° to 5.3 °by the end of the
21st century

Episodes of exceptional weather (harsh winter or wet summer) merely
illustrate short-term climate variability (season, year). This does not callthe long-term warming trend into question.

The impact ofhuman activities

The greenhouse effectThe greenhouse gases in the atmosphere play an importantrole in regulating the climate. They prevent a large amount of solar
energy (infra-red radiation) being sent into space from the Earth.
This is known as the greenhouse effect. Because of this, theaverage temperature on the Earth is about
15 °C. Without it, it would be -18 °C.

Atmospheer

The greenhouse effect is unbalancedby human activities. These cause theconcentrations of greenhouse gasses in theatmosphere to increase artificially and,consequently, accentuate the warming ofour planet. CO2 (carbon dioxide) accounts foralmost 2/3 of global greenhouse gasemissions caused by human activities. Thisis why the effect of other greenhouse gases
is usually measured in CO2 equivalent(CO2e). Current CO2 emissions will have an
impact on concentrations in theatmosphere and on global temperaturefor decades.

France COMMITTED				to the fightFrance is one of the industrialised countries with the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. It accounts for only 1.2 % of global GHG emissions yet it contributes 4.2 %of the global GDP.

France's total GHG
emissions from 1990 to 2013** in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, mainland France and overseas departments (excluding land use)

564

Mt CO2e1990

Between 2008 and 2012 France's
average annual GHG emissions were
56.2 Mt below the emissions ceiling it
had committed to under the Kyoto
Protocol. In 2013, they reached 491.5*
MtCO2e. This represents adifference of 13%
compared with 1990.

564 Mt CO2e:
Kyoto Protocol ceiling

580
570
560
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
480

(2008-2012)-13 %in 2013

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

* early estimates2012 2013

Source: Citepa-MEDDE/DGEC

Tackling
climate issues in France
Since the end of the 1990s the most actively engaged local authorities have taken voluntarymeasures, including some aspects of climate policy, particularly in the form of agenda
21 programmes (practical action plans for sustainable development on a regional scale).

National programme to combat
climate change(programme
national de lutte
contre le changement climatique)2000

1st climate plan
enabling France to meet its
commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol (stabilising emissions
between 2008 and 2012 compared with 1990)

2001

2004

Law making combating thegreenhouse effect a national
priority and creating theObservatoire national
sur les effets du réchauffement
climatique (Onerc) (Frenchnational observatory on theeffects of global warming).

National strategy
for adaptation toclimate change(stratégie nationaled’adaptation auchangement
climatique)

2005

Programme setting thedirections of theenergy policy (loi POPEof 13 July) and a factor
4  target: 4-fold reduction
in greenhousegas emissions between
1990 and 2050

2006

National plan foradaptation toclimate change(plan nationald’adaptation auchangement
climatique)

2010

2011

Regional energy andclimate plan (plans climaténergie territoriaux (PCET))
were made mandatory forregional authorities withmore than 50, 000
inhabitants

2014: Parliament's
examination of theBill on the energy
transition for green
growth2012

Adoption of the firstregional climate,
air and energy plan(schémas régionaux
du climat, de l’air
et de l’énergie(SRCAE))2014

A global		ISSUE
Historically, the developed countries have made the greatest contribution to climatechange. But nowadays, some emerging countries emit as much greenhouse gases(GHG) per head of population as France.

Th

Meeting the challengeof climate changeee y thgr d btae7asesu se gohProtocolotone Kyeetrg

SF6Sulphur
hexafluoride

PFC

Perfluorocarbons

N2O

CO2HFC

NitrousoxideCarbondioxide

At European level

1992
Earth Summit in Rio:start of global climate
negotiations

2001
European Climate
Change Programme

2015

age setting the 3 targets
for 2020, known as 3x20:

2005
1997
EUemissions trading system
Signing of the Kyoto
Protocol requiring 6 GHGs to2008
be cut by 5.2% by 2012
Climate and energy pack-CH4

Hydrofluorocarbons

At international level

MethaneNF321st annual conference

Nitrogen trifluorideof the United Nations onClimate
Change in Paris(since 2013)

Emissions per head of populationof the main GHG
emitting countries in 2011*

20% renewable energy, 20%reduction in energy consumption, 20% cut in GHGs

U.E. 28

9,1* tCO2 per capita

R.U.

According to the IPCC's 5threport, global GHG
emissions caused byhuman activities
rose toÉtatsUnis

21

8,9

CanadaFrance20,9Allemagne

11,3

7,5 Italie

8,2Russie

Turquie

5,7

5,919,249 Gt*

5,7

Sources: EAA (European countries) -CAIT/WRI (other countries)

Argentine

9,1Chine

7,8

Inde
2

Japon
Coréedu Sud

10,2

13,8
3,4

Brésilof CO2 equivalent in 2010.
* 1 gigatonne = 1 billion tonnes

9,5

ArabieSaoudite

Mexique

16,6

Iran

8,9
Afrique du Sud

Indonésie

Australia

25.2

WHAT ISthe IPPC?
At the international level, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and theUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The job of thisand give a uniq
na uecclimatec h coTh e a nIP

The IPCC
contributes more thanandreviewers

frommore than130 countries

hrc

2500
experts

balt glo
lep i bouatiamitig ng theofe
y out res m.
y s c a rr
eaot

f scientists isrk oto
tw he latest know o cone t o f t
le m
impacts and dg
un , itsw
uch doeag e as s
snCC.

were publishedreports in 1990, 1995

2001 and 2007
The

5th
assessment
report35

in
was published
ines
lumvo
ralve
se
2013 and 2014.

ists
French scient
The IPCC
regularly
writesces and related
in climate scien
ics to economic
ysareas (from phamong theforecasting) arethors
800 or so auort.
of the fifth rep

The IPCC is organisedin such a way as toensure the quality andindependence of thescientific work.
It consists of
3 specialist working
groupsevaluation
reports... to outline the climate change
scenarios, in a way that policy
decision-makers can interpret.
Each report is subject to a lengthy
approval process by the scientificcommunity and by governments.

Group1

scientificaspects ofclimatechangeGroup2

impacts ofclimatechange,vulnerability ofregions andsocieties,adaptation

Group3

mitigationof climatechange.

IMPACTS		 already visible
Climate change is a reality. Disturbances are already being seen in the ecologicalbalance of large ecosystems: a changing physical environment and living things
that are trying to adapt or disappearing.
We are also beginning to envisage the consequences for human societies: forced
migrations, an increase in the number of conflicts (use of water resources,appropriation of fertile soils, etc.).

The main impacts

Falling agricultural
production in many

parts of the world

The impacts of climate change
may vary considerably from one
region to another, but they willaffect the whole planet. The
consequences can already bepredicted.

Increased health risks,

Disturbed ecosystems

particularly due to the
spread of diseasebearing insects

20 to 30 % of animaland plant species
under threat ofextinctionMore frequent extreme
weather events :Rising
sea levels

heat waves, coastal
flooding, drought
The increase in
air temperature is oneof the most visible signsof climate change.
This is why the term

global warming
is often used.

In France, the number of summer days, i.e. with a temperature
over 25 °C, increased significantly over the the period 1950-2010.
Key:Toulouse

Paris

Numberof days
2003
heat wave
120

1976 heat wave

100

The number of summerdays varies greatly fromyear to year but, onaverage, it increases in
Paris and Toulouse. This
increase is in the orderof 4 days every 10 years
in Paris and more than
5 days every 10 years inToulouse. This indicator
enables us to identify theexceptional nature of thesummers of 1976 and 2003.
Source: Onerc

Years

1950

80
60
40
200

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Impacts already visible in theOCEANS and IN COASTAL AREAS

The sea levelis rising...

By 2100, the average sea level
could rise from 26 cm to 82 cm.
This rise in sea level will affectislands, deltas and very low
lying coastal areas such as
Bangladesh, the Netherlands or France (LanguedocRoussillon).

Between 1870
and 2000 the sea
level rose

18 cm

globally. 6 cm of thatrise was in the last
20 years.

w?

...and the water isbecoming more acidic

kno

Di d

youry gntu ince serv useb0tof o aswee2
th ns o el w lites sea
glav
nee"
teriralleDu ly m sea h sa solut eve .
stnribinof"aWea
eoth tions uge. ure sion er yispria
ga ea prec tre
va idem eea t now h thillimmtinaca ls w ofes
lev nthtethCO2nic acidcarboPH-The increased concentration of CO2 (carbondioxide) in the atmosphere leads to greater
absorption of CO2 by the oceans. Consequently,
sea water is becoming more acidic,as CO2 ischanged into carbonic acid on contact withthe water.
Between 1751 and 2004 the pH (potentialhydrogen) of the surface water of the oceans fell
from 8.25 to 8.14.
This acidification represents a major risk for coral
reefs and some types of plankton, threatening thebalance of numerous ecosystems.

Impacts already visible
on BIODIVERSITY
Many changes have been observed in the natural world: some birds are migrating andstarting to lay their eggs earlier, some animal and plant species are moving towards
higher latitudes or higher altitudes.

28,342GR

Animal species
are moving northwards

EYLAG

GEES
wintE
eredininSensitive to the rise intemperature and probably a
growing shortage of certain insects,
passerines, such as the wood
warbler or the willow tit, are moving
to more northerly parts of Europe. InFrance, their numbers have alreadyfallen by 20 to 80%, depending on thespecies, over the course of the lasttwenty years.

201
Fran
1 cowith
mpa cer
10 in 19 ed
68

At the beginning of the 20thcentury the greylag goose Anser
anser migrated across France
twice a year to winter on theshores of the Mediterranean.
Because of global warming
it is now able to winter intemperate Europe, includingFrance, as far north as thesouthern Scandinavia.

The life cyclesof plants are speeding up

Today,
in the Champagne
region, harvestingtakes place

2Dates
Source: Onerc

Date ofharvest

21 Oct.
1st Oct.

Average

11 Sept.
22 Aug.

WEEKS

earlier than
20 years ago

1976
heatwave
Date offull bloom

2 Aug.

2003
heatwave

13 July
23 JuneAverage

3 June14 May1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2008

What can we do about it?

MITIGATION
In view of climatic inertia, a rise in temperature by the end of the century is inevitable
and all parts of the world are affected. But it is still possible to limit the rise intemperature on the Earth.

no more thanThis is the aim ofmember countries of theUnited Nations Framework
Convention on Climate
Change, as they think a further
rise in temperature would
have devastating effects.

w?

2 °C

compared with thepre-industrial era

Bybuilding
a house with a wooden
framework some 15 tonnesof CO2 emissions could besaved. Explanation: the woodstores CO2 (absorbed by thetree when growing) and it
replaces materials (PVC,steel, concrete, etc.) thatgenerate much higher
emissions in their production.

knoDi dyou

Tackling the causes of climate change by controlling greenhousegas (GHG) emissions, is what is known as mitigation. GHG emissions
can be reduced in all sectors.

Energy production
Reduce fossil fuel consumption (coal, oil,gas), control energy consumption (energy
efficiency of products and low-carbon
economy), develop use of renewableenergies, etc.

Transport

Industrial
production

Encourage the use of
low-carbon vehicles, poolmeans of transport, developmeans of transport withlower GHG emissions, etc.

Promote processes
with lower GHG
emissions, etc.

14 %

14 %

18 %35%Agriculture

3%

Global GHG
emissions bysector (%)

Source: IPCC 2014

Wasteand water
treatment
Manage the quantities ofwaste produced, capture
methane emissions, etc.

6%

Residential
and commercial
buildings
Renovate the existing
stock and build newenergy efficient buildings,
etc.

10 %

Tropicaldeforestation
Only import wood fromsustainably managed
forests, etc.

Limit the use of
nitrogen fertilisers,
promote methanisation, etc.

What can we do about it?

ADAPTATION
Adaptation policies aim to reduce our vulnerability to the impactsof climate change.

France has had a national climate change adaptation plan since 2011.
The recommended measures concern all sectors of activity around four objectives:Protecting people andproperty

Preventing risk
inequalities

Cutting costs andreaping benefits

Preserving the natural
heritage

Adapting
infrastructures

Bellegarde-surValserine (Ain)has thefirst bioclimatic

station,naturally
ventilated summer
and winter thanks toa double cupola.

The consequences of climate change (floods, fires, soil instability, etc.) willaffect all permanent infrastructures, particularly those relating to transport. Several
adaptation measures have already been identified to prevent the vulnerabilities oftransport systems and improve the resilience of existing and future infrastructure.
Source: Onerc

Adapting
the forests
As well as the increased frequency of
exceptional events, certain animal species arespreading and there are also fundamentalchanges (rising temperatures, lower rainfall,etc.). Preparing forests for the future means
improving their resistance to climate change
from now on. This can be done by identifying
the best adapted tree varieties, keeping
forests in good ecological condition andensuring genetic diversity is as broad as
possible.

They havefoundsolutions!
Using solarpowered airconditioning

In Basse-Terre,
Guadeloupe, a
1,000m2 office blockuses a solar

air-conditioning
technique. A system
which cuts the electricity
consumption needed for
air-conditioning by one
third each year.

a wine cellar in
Banuyls-sur-Mer(Pyrénées-Orientales)
has reduced its annual
energy consumption
by nearly 40%.

THE CULTURAL HERITAGE  
and climate change
Climate and climate change not only have an impact on the natural heritage
but also on monuments and sites.

Historic buildings are
intimately linked to theirenvironment. Their durability
greatly depends on their stability.
The increased frequency of very
heavy rainfall, flooding, salt water
intrusion and greater instability ofthe soil (compression / dilatation)
are problems for theirconservation.

Westminster
Abbey, United
Kingdom
The combined effect of rising
sea levels and changes
in storm systems threatens
the Abbey, which issituated on the bankof the Thames.

While the architectural heritageof adobe structures is particularly
vulnerable, stone structures arealso affected by climate change:changes in the cycles of wet anddry periods and periods of freezing
and thawing speed up thedecomposition of porous materials,
including stone. Organic building
materials, such as wood, are also
under threat from certain parasites
which have been observed to be
migrating to altitudes and latitudes
where they have not been seen
until now.

Timbuktu,
Mali
The great mosques
are now threatened
by desertificationand sand invasion.

In the north of Canada, thetemporary thawing of frozen
ground or ice is threatening Inuitvillages. By weakening the foundations of homes and infrastructure,
many villages are becoming
increasingly difficult to live in. Somesites, where human settlement
has been attested for 9000 years,
are likely to disappear due to thethawing of frozen ground.

Chan Chan,Peru
This archaeologicalcomplex, with its adobebuildings, is particularly
sensitive to theintensificationof heavy rainfall.

For more

INFORMATIONWEBSITEPUBLICATIONS he French climate in the 21st century
TA series of reference reports
Le climat change, agissons
Onerc letter to MPs

Onerc annual reports
Climate and energy efficiency policies.
Summary of France's undertakings and results
Plan National d’Adaptation au Changement Climatique(French national plan for adaptation to climate change) (PNACC)

Mieux comprendre
le GIEC

Changement climatique :impacts en France

There is stilltime toMASSIVELYCUT ourCO2 emissions

Find everything you
want to know at:www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/onerc

DICOM-DGEC/JOU/14188-2-GB-Janvier 2019 - Project manager: A. Baron - Graphic design and computer graphic design: F. Chevallier - Printed on paper certified European ecolabel

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