IEEJ：January © IEEJ 2022
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (569)January 28, 2022

Reviewing the First Year of President Biden
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanAt a time when the possibility of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine that is growing tense islooming as a grave global issue, the responses of the United States that holds the key to global
governance are attracting global attention. The Ukraine crisis represents an extremely important test
for the U.S. Biden administration’s foreign policy. After his first year as U.S. president, Joe Biden isrequired to make strategic foreign and security policy decisions or responses that would be the mosturgent and extremely significant.
How the Biden administration would address the Ukraine crisis would exert grave impacts
on the stability of the international situation and on the Democratic administration’s domestic andforeign ratings and U.S. domestic politics. In this sense, the world is closely watching the Ukraine
crisis and U.S. responses as the most important geopolitical issue at present.
The Biden administration has no choice but to face an extremely severe and difficult
situation after its bumpy first year. In a bid to heal the division of America that grew serious throughthe 2020 presidential election, recover the United States’ global leadership, overcome the COVID-19
crisis and pursue domestic and foreign policies for the middle class, President Biden came up withspecific measures one after another from just after the inauguration. He began to mend and enhancealliances with Japan, Europe, Australia and India. Positioning climate change as one of his toppriority issues, the Biden administration came back to the Paris Agreement and implemented anaggressive diplomacy to lead the global enhancement of climate change countermeasures.
On the domestic front, the Biden administration enacted the $1.9 trillion American Rescue
Plan Act for recovery from the COVID-19 crisis with support from Democrats in March 2021. In
November 2021, the Democratic administration enacted a $1 trillion infrastructure bill to promote
infrastructure investment for economic recovery and long-term growth, securing support from someRepublicans.
While making these achievements, Biden has seen his approval ratings declining since thesecond half of last year. The approval ratings, though differing by poll, decreased gradually fromlevels close to 60% just after his inauguration and have indicated a clear downtrend since the second
half of last year. The latest ratings are around 40%, with some ratings slipping far below 40%.
Factors behind the decline in approval ratings include criticism and discontent regarding foreign
policy, economy and COVID-19 countermeasures. Although the Biden administration has tried toheal the division of American society, the division remains and has deteriorated in some sense.
Republican supporters who account for half the U.S. population have remained basically critical of
the Biden administration. Even among Democratic Party supporters who account for the other half,
criticism of and discontent with the Biden administration and its achievements have been growing.
These conditions have led President Biden’s approval ratings to decline.
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A key trigger of the decline was the Afghan crisis that followed U.S. troops’ withdrawal
from Afghanistan late last August. It sparked harsh criticism of Biden’s foreign and security policies,
leading to a clear downtrend of his approval ratings. Although the United States is the only
superpower in the world, its relative power has structurally weakened, making it difficult for thecountry to remain the world’s policeman. Particularly, the Biden administration is viewed as morecautious of using force than past ones. How the United States would engage with the world has
become a matter of grave concern in the world. In this context, the Ukraine crisis is expected to test
the future of the Biden administration.
Another important factor behind the falling approval ratings for President Biden is thestalemate over the Build Back Better bill that holds the key to the promotion of the Biden
administration’s extremely important economic and climate change measures. In a bid to win thepassage of the bill, the Biden administration has made concessions including the substantial
reduction of the relevant budget size and the curtailment of climate change outlays causing conflictsin Congress. However, it has fallen short of uniting Democrats. Specifically, the administration has
failed to persuade Democrat Senator Joe Manchin who has held a casting vote in the Senate that is
divided 50/50, leaving the bill stalled. In such situation, liberal and progressive Democrats, whohave formed a mainstream group in the Democratic Party, grew discontent about President Biden’s
leadership and management, contributing to the drop in his approval ratings.
If the Build Back Better bill fails to be enacted, it will become more uncertain whether theUnited States could achieve the Biden administration’s extremely challenging goal of cutting
greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 50-52% from 2005. As the uncertainty about domestic
measures funded based on law increases, the United States would have to depend on executive
orders and other administrative measures for enhancing domestic climate change countermeasureswhile strengthening diplomatic and foreign policy initiatives. It would be difficult for the UnitedStates to urge other countries including developing and emerging market economies to enhance
climate change countermeasures while being plagued with problems regarding its domestic measures.
The United States would then face opposition and discontent from developing and emerging market
economies, potentially escalating the north-south dispute over climate change. The United States’
external campaigns for enhancing climate change countermeasures could work to increase China’s
geopolitical presence by beefing up China’s significance in fossil fuel markets, its presence in the
renewable and nuclear energy fields and its influence on a market for critical minerals required forenergy transition. In this way, the United States’ external campaigns for enhancing climate change
countermeasures could conflict with its China policy as its top diplomatic priority.
The Biden administration also faces other domestic and overseas challenges such as thespread of Omicron COVID-19 variant infections, an inflation fear and concern about the future
course of the economy. While the Biden administration is required to secure support from liberal andprogressive voters who now account for 50% of Democratic Party supporters, the Build Back Betterbill and other Biden initiatives are stalled in the divided society and congress, inviting discontent
from his fellow Democrats. The Biden administration has thus plunged into a kind of dilemma.
November’s midterm congressional elections are coming closer. Usually, a governing
party faces an uphill battle in a midterm election. As approval ratings have declined for Biden andbecome lower for the Democratic Party than for the Republican Party, Republicans may expect towin a congressional majority through the midterm election, resulting in a divided government.
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Whether the Biden administration would adjust or change its foreign and domestic policies to avoid
such congressional change or cope with the potential Republican congress after the election is agrave issue for the future course of the administration. Whether the United States would adjust orchange its policies that exert great influence on international politics, security, the global economy,
climate change and energy issues is an issue that the world or Japan cannot ignore.
In this sense, President Biden’s response to the Ukraine crisis will be extremely importantfor his future approval ratings and political management towards the midterm elections. The UnitedStates’ and President Biden’s leadership in stabilizing the international situation will continue toattract global attention.

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