WMO Statementon the State of the Global Climate
Preliminary conclusions for 2018
andWMO Greenhouse Bulletin
Dr Elena Manaenkova
Deputy Secretary General
World Meteorological Organisation

Statement on the State of the Global Climate• Complements IPCC Assessment Reports and Special Reports• Includes assessment from the annual WMO Greenhouse Bulletinson atmospheric concentrations of LL GHG – complements UNEnvironment annual GAP Report on Emissions• Since 1993 - Annual updates on key climate climate indicators ofchanging conditions of the state of the climate; includes multy-year(5 and 10 years) trends• Provides a snap shot on key climate indicators and extreme eventswith historical and geographical context• Allows analysis of climate change signals separated more clearly
from natural modes of variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation)• Final release in March 2019

Main contributors• Lead experts (12)• Member States direct contributions through the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (64)• International specialized institutions (17)• United Nations organisations (7)Structure of the Statement• Key Climate Indicators• Climate risks and associated impacts

Key Climate Indicators
Key Climate Indicators
Global temperature

Annual2018
0.98 ±0.12°C

5 year2014-2018
1.04±0.09°C

10 year2009-2018
0.93±0.07°C

10 year2006-2015
0.87°C

Other

405.5 ± 0.1 ppm 400.5 ppm

394.7 ppm

390.3 ppm.

(2017)(2013-2017)(2008-2017)(2006-2015)

CO2, CH4 and N2O also
highest on record

2.2 ppm/yr

2.5 ppm/yr

2.2 ppm/yr

2.1 ppm/yr(2016)(2012-2016)(2007-2016)(2006-2015)(change from 1850-1900 pre-industrial period)

2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
four warmest years

Greenhouse gasesCO2 (ppm, atmospheric concentration)
CO2 (rate of increase)Cryosphere – Sea Ice (vs 1981-2010 )March Arctic sea ice extent change %

-7.4%

-6.7%

-5.2%

-3.9%



September Arctic Sea ice change %-27.7%-26.6%-27.5%-25.1%



September Antarctic Sea ice change %

-4.8%

-2.1%

-0.6%

+0.9%

n/a

4.5±0.3 mm/yr 4.6±0.15 mm/yr

Sea LevelGlobal average rate/year

3.8±0.1 mm/yr

3.1±0.1 mm/yr(1993-2017)

Total change since 1993

SE-Asia rate per year

78 mm

70 mm (2015)

60 mm (2014)

42mm (2009)4.5±0.4 mm/yr(1993-2017)

2.9±0.2 mm/yr

Caribbean rate per year(1993-2017)

Ocean heat content


700 meters (1022 J wrt 1981-2010)

12.8

11.1

9.1

7.4

1st/2nd highest each qtr

2000 meters (1022 J wrt 1981-2010)

18.2

16.5

13.2

10.2

1st/2nd highest each qtr

Ocean acidification
pH from open ocean stations HOTS and BATS,annual decrease (data up to 2016)

0.001-0.002(1995-2016 )Global Temperature – warmest 5 & 10 years

5 years: 2014-2018:10 years: 2009-2018:

1.04 ± 0.09°C
0.93 ± 0.07°C

Global Temperature - 4th warmest year

0.98 ± 0.12°C above 1850-1900
set to be 4th warmest year on record
The 4 warmest years on record are the last 4 (2015-2018)

Warmest La Niña year

2011
2008
2000
1999
1989
1974
1955
1976
1950
1956

Surface air temperature anomaly
Jan-Oct 2018

Greenhouse gas levels reach new record
CO2

CH4N2O2017 global abundance

405.5 ± 0.1 ppm

1’859 ± 2 ppb

329.9 ± 0.1 ppb

2017 abundance
relative to 1750

146 %

257 %

122 %

2016-2017 absoluteincrease

2.2 ppm

7 ppb

0.9 ppb

2016-2017 relative
increase

0.55 %

0.38 %

0.27 %

Mean annual absoluteincrease of last 10 years

2.24 ppm yr-1

6.9 ppb yr-1

0.93 ppb yr-1

Source: WMO Greenhouse Bulletin No. 14, November 2018

Greenhouse gas levels reach new record
CO2CH4N2O

Globally averaged mole fraction (a) and its growth rate from 1984 to 2017 (b).
Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (b).
The red line in (a) is the monthly mean with the seasonal variation removed.
The blue dots in and line depict the monthly averages.

Arctic March max
14.48 million km2,7% below average(1981-2010),
record low first 2 month

Sea ice extent (% of 1981-2010)

Sea Ice well below average
March 1979-2018
Arctic Sea Ice Extent % from 1981-2010 average

6420-2-4-6-8-10
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Year

September 1979-2018
Arctic Sea Ice Extent % from 1981-2010 average

4.62 million km2,
28% below average
12 smallest in last 12 yrs

Sea ice extent (% of 1981-2010)

Arctic September min
30
20
100-10-20
-30
-40
-50
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year2005

2010

2015

2020

Sea Level Rising

Data from ESA CCI, CMEMS and AVISOGMSL Jan - Jul 2018: 2-3 mm higher than the same period in 2017

Ocean Heat Increases

Each 3-month period in 2018 (to September 2018)
upper 700m (data from 1955) and 2000m (from 2005) werethe hottest or 2nd hottest (2017 hottest)Ocean Acidification Increases

Open-ocean sources over thelast 30 years have shown aclear trend of decreasing pHCredit: Richard Feely (NOAA- PMEL) and Marine Lebrec (IAEA OA-ICC)

Extreme events worldwide growing
No. events

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic activity)

Meteorological events(Tropical storm, extratropicalstorm, convective storm,
local storm)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

Source: NatCatService.munichre.com

700 disasters/year (2017)
Accounted events have caused at least one
fatality and/or produced normalized losses ≥US$ 100k, 300k, 1m, or 3m (depending on
the assigned World Bank income group of
the affected country).

Natural Disasters - last 20 years
90.6 % weather related

Source: UN ISDR & CRED: October 201316

4.5 Billion people affected – last 20 years
96 % weather related

Source: UN ISDR & CRED: October 201317

Climate Risks and Associated Impacts

Every life matters• Extreme weather left a trail of devastation on all continents and led to manycasualties• Over at least 1 600 excess deaths associated with heat waves, more than 100 with••••

the wildfires
A historically significant heatwave affected parts of East Asia in late July and earlyAugust. The worst-hit area was Japan. A national record of 41.1 °C was set atKumagaya on 23 July. Over 150 deaths in Japan were associated with the heat.
A wildfire to the northeast of San Francisco, known as The Camp Fire, is the deadliest
fire in over a century for the U.S. and, in terms of property loss, the most destructive
on record for California. There have been at least 79 fatalities.
Large parts of western Japan experienced destructive flooding in late June and earlyJuly. At least 230 deaths were reported and 6 695 houses were destroyed.
In August, the southwest Indian state of Kerala suffered major flooding, reportedly
the worst since 1924. 223 deaths were reported and more than 5.4 million wereaffected.

Socio-economic impacts - 2018
Heavy humanitarian consequences:
In Madagascar, the number of people affected by food insecurity increased to 1.3
million in southern regions• Over 2 million people were reported to be displaced in association withextreme weather and climate events• Vulnerable Rohingya refugees severely affected: As of September 2018, up to
200 000 refugees were exposed heightened risk of landslides and flooding.
Large economic losses:• Exceptional drought in Europe and southern America. 43% crop losses inGermany relative to the 2013-17 average, likely to be costed in the billions ofeuros• Florence and Michael the most significant hurricane landfalls on the UnitedStates mainland in 2018 with heavy economic losses.
• Typhoon Manghkut/Ompong, which crossed the Philippines in mid-September
was associaed with agricultural losses that could reach at least US$ 265 million.
• Gita in the South Pacific in February 2018 was the most intense tropical cyclone
ever to affect Tonga causing severe damage. Significant damage also occurred inSamoa, American Samoa and on outlying islands of Fiji