IEEJ：May 2020 © IEEJ 2020
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (480)May 15, 2020

COVID-19 Pandemic in “G zero World”
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanThe COVID-19 pandemic is the gravest problem and the most serious global crisis thattoday’s international community faces. While some major countries have begun to hope that the worst
phase is passing with infections peaking, infections are still expanding in the world, with the novelcoronavirus estimated to have infected about 4.25 million people and killed about 290,000 people by
May 14, according to the World Health Organization. Even in countries where infections have peaked,
infections could expand explosively again or a second or third wave of pandemic could come.
Infections could spread from Europe and the United States to Africa and Latin America, with global
damage expanding.
At a time when the world is plagued with the unprecedentedly grave crisis, the international
community is naturally required to fight against the crisis through strong cooperation and solidarity.
Central leadership is required for maintaining and enhancing such unity, cooperation or solidarity.
Nevertheless, we must question if the current world is prepared for cooperation or solidarity.
As a matter of course, many people in the face of the unprecedentedly serious crisis arecourageously helping each other beyond national boundaries in healthcare and life support areas thatare the most important for addressing the crisis, as reported frequently. At the same time, however,numerous matters of concern regarding the unity, cooperation and solidarity of the international
community have emerged. For example, whether the WHO has worked well in addressing thepandemic has become a controversial issue, while the WHO is expected to play a key role ininternational public hygiene and health maintenance amid the pandemic, with WHO officials making
enormous efforts and initiatives. Some people have called for verifying whether the WHO has madeadequate initial responses to COVID-19. The United Nations, even though expected to address any
important international issue, has failed to demonstrate its presence in regard to the current pandemic.
How about international frameworks such as the Group of Seven and the Group of 20? TopG7 leaders have held teleconferences to discuss initiatives for preventing coronavirus infections fromexpanding, the importance of and cooperation in developing remedies and vaccines, global economic
problems and countermeasures, and other matters. However, the G7 has taken no remarkable
leadership in addressing the pandemic. The same for the G20. The European Union, as a regionalcommunity, is moving to implement its strategy of combining reconstruction and restoration from thecurrent crisis with the enhancement of its decarbonization initiative. In the face of the pandemic,
however, EU members have implemented their respective infection prevention and economic
measures. It seems that the European Commission has not necessarily taken leadership in fighting
against the pandemic for its member countries. The union has not necessarily led the world in
addressing the pandemic.
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IEEJ：May 2020 © IEEJ 2020
Amid the pandemic crisis, the world has apparently entered what Eurasia Group’s Ian
Bremmer calls “a G zero situation” where the world lacks any agent who leads governance formaintaining global stability and order. The biggest factor behind such situation has undoubtedly beena change in the role of the United States. While the United States has remained the world’s strongest
superpower, its once dominant political, economic and military positions have been relativized,
leading its global governance power and its interest in such governance to gradually decline. In linewith the decline, the United States has grown inward-looking, as noted by various experts.
Amid such trend, the United States is now under the Trump administration. As symbolized
by its “America First” foreign policy, the administration gives top priority to the imminent challengeof the presidential election rather than global governance. The United States has been plagued withthe world’s largest number of coronavirus infections or deaths. It may be natural for the hardest-hit
country to give top priority to protecting its people and economy. In the past, however, the UnitedStates could have tried to lead the world in addressing the pandemic while protecting itself. Today, theUnited States seems unlikely to do so.
Attracting attention in the G zero world is the important position of China as well as theUnited States. Backed by its rapid economic growth since 2000, China has fast increased its presencein and influence on international politics, the world economy, military affairs and technology. While
China still falls short of rivaling the United States in many areas, its rapidly increasing power has
raised its presence as a potential new challenger to U.S.-led global governance. The United States has
had no choice but to grow conscious of China’s presence, hardening its attitude on China. Typicalproblems arising from this trend include the U.S.-China trade war and the underlying bilateral race fortechnological supremacy.
As COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan and developed into the current pandemic, China initially
was the country hit hardest by the disease. However, China has controlled COVID-19 under its
successfully powerful coronavirus containment policy and launched “mask diplomacy” enhancing
healthcare support for other countries that have replaced China as the main battlefield for fighting
against the coronavirus. At the same time, however, the U.S.-China blame game and tensions havebeen gaining momentum over the source of the coronavirus outbreak, the adequacy of China’s
response to the initial phase of the outbreak and recent cyberattacks to steal COVID-19 vaccine data.
As far as the difficult U.S.-China relations continue, it may not be easy to expect real global unity,cooperation and solidarity over the pandemic issue. In the United States, the inward-looking trend thatgives top priority to national interests has remained unchanged ahead of the autumn presidentialelection. In presidential election campaigns, a focus of attention could be whether RepublicanPresident Donald Trump or his Democratic rival Joseph Biden would be tougher against China. In thissense, the world may have to face the pandemic while the “G zero world” remains unchanged withU.S.-China relations growing even sourer.
We must be prepared to see such international situation as a precondition for international
politics, the world economy, geopolitics and the international energy situation. How to deal with theUnited States and China based on an accurate understanding of the entire global situation is the mostimportant matter for Japan in considering its national strategy. Japan will be required to develop its
overall national strategy based on the difficult international situation and geopolitical environment andplan its relevant energy policy or strategy.
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