Expectations and outline of the WG
III contribution to the 6thAssessment Report1Government questionnaire: priority topics for AR6

2

Policy relevant information on the Paris Agreement goals (well below 2°C, efforts toachieve 1.5°C, climate neutrality); anticipate the global stocktake; transformation
pathways to meet 2°C and 1.5°C; social + financial + technological + sectoral +regional implications of pathways

19

Geo-engineering, including limits, negative emissions

7

The role of short-lived climate pollutants and other benefits

6

Options for decarbonization pathways, including solutions from business

6

Links between climate change and SDGs

5

Technological, economic, social, and institutional barriers to realizing mitigation
targets and benefits from carbon offset mechanisms

4

Opportunities, challenges, barriers and co-benefits of climate change mitigation
policies and measures3

Impacts on land-use change, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity andecosystem functions and services

3

Mitigation in the Paris Agreement:
Temperature, emissions and sinks• “This Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat ofclimate change…. including by holding the increase in the global averagetemperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts ofclimate change”• “Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationallydetermined contributions that it intends to achieve”• The CoP….shall periodically take stock of the implementation of theAgreement to assess collective progress towards achieving the purpose of theAgreement and its long-term goals (the “global stocktake”)• Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon
as possible….. so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in thesecond half of this century3AR5 achieved a systemic view of mitigation opportunities. But there is a need to include a wider range ofapproaches in the assessment, including national and regional modelling as well as global models.

Working Group III Challenges for AR6:
• To assess the linkages between high-level climate stabilization goals andscenarios on the one hand and the range of practical steps that can be taken in
the short- and medium-term to make the realisation of these goals possible.
• To make greater use of social science disciplines, in addition to economics,
especially for gaining insight into issues related to lifestyle, behaviour,consumption, technological choices and socio-technical transitions.
• To link climate change mitigation better to other agreed policy goals nationallyand internationally (e.g. the Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs).

Expert Meeting on IPCC Expert Meeting on Mitigation,
Sustainability and Climate Stabilisation Scenarios:
April 2017
• 54 scientists from 27
countries covering a wide
range of disciplines andperspectives - not justmodellers• Also included participantsfrom:• Business• Government• WGs I and II communities

Recommendations for the IPCC
• Establish a cross-chapter contact group within WG IIIon scenarios and modelling• Establish a cross-Working Group contact group for
scenarios during the AR6 cycle• Select authors with a wide-range of expertise, andauthors that can enhance integration across WorkingGroups.
• Hold cross-Working Group discussions on bestpractices for presentation and communication ofscenario ranges.
• Determine how the IPCC will use the Shared SocioEconomic Pathways (SSPs)

6• Establish a clearer distinction between ‘assessment’and ‘research’, and communicate this distinction tothe authors.

Recommendations for researchcommunities• Ensure different tools and models are used for thepurpose they are most appropriate for• Identify gaps in knowledge in integrated assessment
models• Link IAMs with finer scale models that represent
infrastructure more explicitly• Enhance transparency by being more explicit about
assumptions, trade-offs, and uncertainties inscenarios• Unpack the concept of ‘feasibility’• Bottom-up research communities could enhanceefforts to self-organise, and build capacity onmodelling for under-represented regions
7• Broaden the range of people (including social
scientists, businesses and other stakeholders) involved

AR6 scoping meeting
May 2017• Structured bottom-up process: nodraft outline to start the meeting.
• Outline emerged over the courseof the week through interactive
series of discussions.

Approving the outlines of AR6September 2017

Photos by IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis

Approved outline of WG III AR610IPCC WG III timeline*****
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