INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
UNEP

WMO

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Report of the IPCC Expert Meeting on
Emission Estimation of Aerosols Relevant to Climate Change
2-4 May 2005
Geneva, Switzerland

This expert meeting was agreed in advance as part of the IPCC work plan, but this does not imply
Task Force, Working Group or Panel endorsement or approval of this report or any
recommendations or conclusions contained herein. This report is Supporting Material prepared forconsideration by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The report was compiled by theTechnical Support Unit of the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (NGGIP)
from the individual breakout group reports and notes of the meeting and has been reviewed twice
by participants. This material has not been subjected to formal IPCC review processes.

Table of Contents
1.

BACKGROUND......................................................................................................................................................... 32.

KEYNOTE PRESENTATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 5
2.1. DIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLIMATE: WHAT DO WE KNOW?
2.2. INDIRECT EFFECTS: AEROSOL AND CLOUD MICROPHYSICS
2.3. EC/OC EMISSIONS: CURRENT UNDERSTANDING & RELEVANT ISSUES
2.4. AEROSOL COUPLING WITH PHOTOCHEMISTRY OF GREENHOUSE GASES
2.5. DEFINITIONAL ISSUES FOR AEROSOLS
2.6. SOIL DUST EMISSIONS
2.7. PRACTICAL EXPERIENCES OF AEROSOL INVENTORY PREPARATION - EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
2.8. COMBUSTION AEROSOL EMISSION MEASUREMENTS
2.9. GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF CARBONACEOUS AEROSOLS USING BOTTOM-UP METHODS

3.

SECTORAL CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 11
3.1. SECTORAL CONCLUSIONS
3.1.1.
ENERGY – CONCLUSIONS
3.1.2.
INDUSTRY AND OTHER SOURCES - CONCLUSIONS
3.1.3.
LAND USE EMISSIONS - CONCLUSIONS

4.

5
6
6
6
7
7
8
9
9

12
12
12
12

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................ 13

ANNEX 1REPORT OF ENERGY GROUP ............................................................................................................ 16

ANNEX 2REPORT OF THE INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND OTHER EMISSIONS GROUP................. 20

ANNEX 3REPORT OF LAND USE EMISSIONS GROUP.................................................................................. 23

ANNEX 4

AGENDA .................................................................................................................................................... 26

ANNEX 5

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS....................................................................................................................... 28

ANNEX 6

GROUP MEMBERS ................................................................................................................................. 32

ANNEX 7KEY NOTE PRESENTATIONS ............................................................................................................. 33

Box 1 Conclusions
The meeting reached these conclusions (see chapter 4 for more detail):z Global inventories of emissions of aerosols relevant to climate change contain significant
sources of uncertainty. Currently, it is not possible to reliably produce internationallycomparable national emission estimates and estimate real differences in emission characteristics
between countries. Work is needed to reduce some of the uncertainties identified in this reportand particularly on the research priorities identified here.
z To reduce uncertainties in carbonaceous aerosol emission estimates there needs to beconsideration of the different measurement methods of each of Black Carbon, Elemental Carbon
and Organic Carbon. Both the development of standard methodologies that provide lessambiguous results, and also methods to relate results of different measurement methods to eachother, are urgently needed to reduce these uncertainties. The NGGIP could review the
implications of these differences on inventory estimates; however a wider consultation is needed
to resolve this issue. While the role of the IPCC could be to encourage and facilitate this
discussion, the IPCC is not itself the body to take responsibility for carrying out research
programmes for setting measurement standards.
z Co-operation within the IPCC between the WG1 scientific work on climate change and the
NGGIP global emission inventory work, started at this meeting, and was found to be valuable.
z Future work on aerosol emissions, particularly by the NGGIP, should be focussed on the needsof the relevant research communities. Given the importance of “natural” emissions, themethodological overlap with other anthropogenic sources and the uncertainty of defining
anthropogenic and natural emissions the NGGIP should not limit its consideration toanthropogenic sources.
z The meeting concluded that further similar meetings participated by WG1, NGGIP and otheraerosol inventory experts should be held. These meetings should focus on some of the specificissues identified during the current meeting. Three main topics for consideration are: Needs of speciated aerosols emission data and definitions.
 Use of existing inventory information in particular from air quality studies.
 Sectoral issues – improvements of specific key source sectors.

2

1. Background
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) identified aerosols as potentially significant contributors to
climate change with radiative forcing of the same magnitude as methane, nitrous oxide or halocarbons (seeFigure 1). The quantification of radiative forcing of aerosols is very difficult. Aerosols differ from thegreenhouse gases already in the inventories as they both absorb and scatter sunlight, they have indirect
effects on clouds and they have short atmospheric lifetimes. Primary aerosols include carbonaceous
aerosols (black and organic carbon), mineral dust, marine aerosols and biogenic material. Secondary
aerosols are formed in the atmosphere from the emission of other gases including SO2, NOx, NH3 and
NMVOC1.
The issue of emission estimates for aerosols was first discussed by the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories Programme2 (NGGIP) at the September 2003 scoping meeting for the 2006 IPCC Guidelines
for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. IPCC XXI (Nov. 2003) approved the Terms of Reference, draft
Table of Contents and the Work Programme for the IPCC 2006 Inventory Guidelines, but decided not toinclude guidance on estimating emissions of aerosols. Instead, IPCC XXI and XXII (Nov. 2004) endorsed
the recommendation of the Inventory Task Force to hold an expert meeting on aerosols. The objectives ofthis meeting were:x To conduct a preliminary assessment of issues related to developing estimates foranthropogenic emissions of aerosols identified in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) as
having an impact on climate change. In this context, the discussion of aerosols and climate change
in the TAR will provide relevant background.
x To discuss the methodological approaches and related issues for estimating emissions ofaerosols. While the whole range of aerosols will be considered, the primary focus will be on
carbonaceous aerosols. (The Scoping Meeting for the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (Sept. 2003) noted,“Methodologies for sulphate aerosols are covered in other agreements and it is not anticipated that
additional consideration is needed for them.”)
The expert meeting was organised by the Task Force on Inventories assisted by the IPCC Working Group I.
A list of participants is attached as Annex 5.

1

In North America the definition of Volatile Organic Hydrocarbons (VOC) differs from the definition of non-methane volatileorganic compounds (NMVOC) used in Europe. While this difference can be important, particularly when speculated composition
is required, in this review it is not a significant difference and NMVOC can be taken to refer to either.
2

The IPCC’s NGGIP produces and promotes guidelines for the estimation of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. These

inventories aim to estimate accurately, and without bias as far as can be judged, total annual emissions (or removals) of greenhousegasses from a country. These guidelines are used for reporting to the UNFCCC national emissions and are the basis for the review
of inventories under that convention. Thus they are the fundamental measure by which compliance with international emission
reduction or control agreements is judged. They are also used as a basis for other emission estimations e.g. for companies or
emission control projects. Given their use, they have to be able to replicate national emission characteristics, to enable emission
reduction policies and control measures to be tracked and to accurately represent differences between countries in their emission
characteristics (e.g. use of different technologies, national penetration of various control measures, use of different raw materials,
specific national policies, and the impacts of climate and land use). They also have to be useable world wide from developed
countries with relatively large resources to those with few resources. All anthropogenic sources are included, industry, domestic
and transport, as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use and land use change. (See http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/)3

The meeting was organised in two parts, first key note presentations to inform the meeting of climate
specific type and impacts of aerosols, then detailed, sector specific discussions in smaller groups (seeagenda, Annex 4). The keynote presentations were in two parts (see summary below and Annex 7).
x Atmospheric sciences and discussions on data, including characterisation of aerosols required forclimate change research.
x Aerosol emission estimation, and discussions on extent of current inventories and theirapplicability to greenhouse gas and climate change issues.
Following the keynote presentations the meeting discussed how to organize the breakout groups. Therewas some debate whether there needed to be a separate group, in addition to three sectoral groups, to deal
general issues such as measurements and aerosol characterization. In the end, however, the meeting agreed
to deal with those general issues in each sectoral group, as follows (Annex6 shows the membership of thegroups):x Breakout Group 1 – Energy. This group covered all fuel combustion (both fossil fuels andbiofuels) from all economic sectors (transformation, industry, residential and commercial, andtransportation), and incineration.
x Breakout Group 2 – Industry and Other Emissions. This group covered a wide range of sources
including Industrial Process Emissions (e.g. Cement and Iron and Steel), Mining & Quarrying,
Entrained Road Dust, Construction, Stock piles and the Transport of bulk products.
x Breakout Group 3 – Land Use. Dust Emissions from Different Land Uses, Open Burning (e.g.
prescribed burning, disposal of agricultural waste and savannah burning), Wild Fires and Biogenic
aerosols.

Box 2 “Anthropogenic” and “Biogenic”
Many climate studies use a very different definition of “anthropogenic” to that used in traditional
Greenhouse Gas Inventories which is also used in the UNFCCC and in international reporting. Climate
studies often split emissions into “anthropogenic” and “biogenic” where biogenic emissions (eg fromplants) are not anthropogenic. On the other hand, in traditional Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the NGGIP,
and in the UNFCCC much of these “biogenic” emissions in many countries would be considered as“anthropogenic”. This is because the inventories, and UNFCCC emission reporting, aim to estimate thetotal impact on the atmosphere of all human activities. Thus emissions from managed forests are
anthropogenic, so in Western Europe, for example, all of the biogenic emissions would also be consideredanthropogenic.

4

2. Keynote Presentations
This section briefly summarises the presentations, particularly issues related to emission estimation. The
complete presentations are included in Annex 7.

2.1. Direct effects of aerosols on climate: What do we know?
Prof. Joyce Penner, University of Michigan, USA
The IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001, (TAR), reported the impacts of Sulphate3, Black Carbon from
Fossil Fuel Combustion, Organic Carbon from Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass burning (both black andorganic carbon) and Mineral Dust on the climate system (see Figure 1).
In the TAR, about half of the total aerosol load or burden (for particles less than 2 µm) has anthropogenic
sources4. These aerosols include fossil fuel sulphate and associated ammonium, organic and black carbon
from fossil fuels, smoke from biomass burning, mineral dust and fossil fuel nitrate and associatedammonium. This presentation reviewed the impact of these aerosols on direct radiative forcing. There aremajor uncertainties in estimates of these emissions and further uncertainties in each step of the modelling
process from emissions to radiative forcing. Reducing the uncertainty in estimates of aerosol direct forcing
will require improvements in global models, in aerosol sources and their strengths, and processes
determining aerosol lifetime and burden, and in secondary aerosol formation. The biggest uncertainties
relate to black carbon, organic carbon aerosols and dust.

Figure 1. The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000, relative to 1750, (IPCC
TAR 2001)

3

Sulphate aerosol is formed in the atmosphere from emissions of sulphur dioxide. Emission inventories of SO2 are widespread (forair quality reasons) and guidelines on how to estimate SO2 emissions have also been produced. The same is true of other aerosol
precursors: nitrogen oxides (NOx) and to a lesser extent ammonia (NH3)4Many climate studies use a very different definition of “anthropogenic” to that used by the NGGIP and the (see Box 2).

5

2.2. Indirect Effects: Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics
Prof. Ulrike Lohmann, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
The indirect effects of aerosols on climate, through impacts on clouds, were reviewed. The net radiative
forcing of these effects is negative and very uncertain. The impacts can occur through three mechanisms:
increasing the cloud albedo by increasing the number of droplets (increasing cloud condensation nuclei);increasing cloud lifetime (more drops implies smaller sizes and longer life); and black carbon in the cloud(absorption of radiation and increases cloud temperature, thus decreasing cloud lifetime). The impact ofthese effects varies regionally. All types of particle can act as cloud condensation nuclei, however thechemical composition affects the hygroscopic properties and cloud droplet nucleation in ways that arepoorly understood. Thus chemical speciation of aerosols may be important. Work currently underway is
examining these issues and is likely to be included in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Climate
modelling groups are looking at these issues for the future but they are not included in most current models.

2.3. EC/OC Emissions: Current Understanding & Relevant Issues
Dr. Zhang Xiaoye, Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services, China
The current understanding of elemental carbon and organic carbon emissions in China was reviewed.
Emission sources include biomass burning, power plant, transport, residential activities and industry. Coal,oil, wood and other biomass are all important fuels. Provincial fuel used data has been combined with
databases of forest and grassland fires and county level agricultural output data to produce country-wide,
spatial maps of emissions. While the black carbon estimates are broadly similar to other recent estimatespublished since the TAR, the latest organic carbon estimates are significantly higher, with increased
contributions from rural industry, residential coal combustion and agricultural activities. Moreover,secondary organic carbonaceous aerosol particles appear to be a large fraction of the entire aerosol mass. A
wide range of measurements of aerosols and other climate relevant parameters were also reviewed. The
existing global estimation of aerosol radiative forcing shows the net total organic aerosol radiative forcing
to be negative, this probably under-estimates the negative effect of secondary organic aerosols. All kindsof aerosol species should be considered in the climate change discussion, emphasising climate change andlinks to other environmental issues.

2.4. Aerosol Coupling with Photochemistry of Greenhouse Gases
Professor Michael Prather, University of California, USA
This presentation looked at both the indirect effects of greenhouse gases and secondary organic aerosols.
Reactive atmospheric chemistry affects a number of “indirect” greenhouse gases as well as troposphericozone, the lifetime of both gases and aerosols and the formation of secondary aerosols. Aerosols affect the
global budgets of O3, OH and CH4. The impacts of all these effects are highly dependent on both the region
and the timeframe considered. Most of the secondary organic aerosols are thought to form from biogenic5
NMVOC emissions. Work done for regional air quality assessments has already provided detailed
chemical speciation of many of these NMVOC emissions in Europe and North America. Considerable
uncertainties still surround emission estimates – both mass and composition. Temporal variation can beimportant with significant seasonality. The spatial location of the emissions is important. Current models

5

Many climate studies use a very different definition of “anthropogenic” to that used by the NGGIP and the (see Box 2).

6use 2-4 degree grid cells with refinement to 1-2 degree cells being developed. For precursor emissions,with relatively fast atmospheric chemistry in the atmosphere, finer resolutions of about 1km are needed,though the development of global models at this scale is unlikely at present.

2.5. Definitional Issues for Aerosols
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA
The climatic effects of carbonaceous particles depend on their composition, which varies widely soemissions have been divided into climate relevant classes of particles, e.g. black carbon and organic carbon.
However no standard measurement methods uniquely measure these climate relevant particle types. For
example, black carbon can be measured using either an optical measurement (light absorption) or a thermal
measurement, but these are affected by particle form, non-carbon absorption and measurements protocol(filters and wavelengths etc.). The distinction between black and organic carbon is particularly importantfor climatic purposes and is defined operationally, i.e. by the particular measurement method. Thus, there
are no universally accepted definitions of black carbon, elemental carbon and organic carbon. A significant
proportion of the modelled uncertainty in radiative forcing can be traced to the uncertainties in emission
estimates, the climate relevant properties and lifetime of the aerosols. Hence standard measurement
methods, or improved knowledge of the relationship between different methods, will assist with bothemission estimation and comparison with measurements for model assessment. In addition, the link
between chemical measurements and optical properties needs to be better understood.

2.6. Soil Dust Emissions
Dr. Ina Tegen, Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany
Soil dust emissions are primary aerosols that do not undergo secondary atmospheric transformations. The
TAR estimated a wide range of globally-averaged radiative forcing (both positive and negative) andassumed about half of these emissions was anthropogenic6. While there are now some satellite data on dust
storms and some station data from more populated areas, this information is not sufficient to understanddust storms and their frequency or how they may be changing. There are some models of dust emissions
and these can be combined with land cover (vegetation) to produce emission estimates. Humans canimpact these emissions through cultivation (especially in arid regions), soil protection and irrigation,
overgrazing, deforestation, unpaved roads, construction and military activities in deserts. Similarly,changes in climate can also cause changes in emissions. Recent estimates suggest agricultural activities
may cause up to 10-25% of the soil dust emissions (although in some regions it may be a dominant sourcee.g. possibly Europe). Emission estimates need to be improved and a better understanding of the size
distribution developed.

6

Again it is unclear how the definition of “anthropogenic” used relates to the usual inventory, or political, definition (see Box 2).

7

2.7. Practical Experiences of Aerosol Inventory Preparation European Perspective
Dr. Kristin Rypdal, CICERO & Mr Zbigniew Klimont, IIASA
Recently in Europe there has been a stronger focus on aerosols, primarily due to their health impacts. Thus
they are at the centre of air quality improvement strategies developed in Europe. The main effort at present
is in the development of PM10 and PM2.5 inventories, with black and organic carbon a secondary priority.
The inventory development work is being co-ordinated by the UNECE7 Convention on the Long Range
Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) with the aim of producing validated inventories by including
PM10 and PM2.5 in their guidebook8.
The general estimation approach is shown in Figure 2. This shows the typical approach; some sectors canhave considerably more complex calculations. The activity data needs to be split by activity type,
technology and abatement types as these significantly influence emission rates. It is necessary to speciate
the emission estimates to derive the quantities of climate interest, e.g. the emission factors available may
estimate PM2.5 while black carbon emissions are needed. It is important that the fuel burnt in different
types of sources as well as the fractions of each source that use emission controls are considered.
Activity data for activity i using technology j and abatement

Control Efficiency for abatement type k activity i using

type k (not usually available in this level of detail)technology j (needs to be a real world efficiency)

Ep¦

Total Emissions from alli , j ,kAi , j ,k Fi , j 1  Ci , j ,k x S p ,i , j ,kTechnology specific

Fraction of particulate ofactivities of particulate type pemission factor for activity itype p in emissions(i.e. Black Carbon, Organic

using technology j (accountestimated by Fi,j with

Carbon etc)

for management practices)

abatement k

Figure 2 Generalised Estimation of Aerosols showing main factors - some sectors will have considerably more
complex approaches.

Currently, European air pollution policy envisages support for the further development and improvementsof methods needed to prepare speciated aerosol inventories. There is now a reporting requirement for PM10
and PM2.5 in the UNECE. Work undertaken to improve existing guidance on estimating emissions has
identified some sources not already included in the inventory guidelines including construction, wood
products and handling and storage of bulk products (coal ores etc.). Other sources that are not significant
for current greenhouse gas inventories will be significant for aerosols and so need to be better defined.
Data is not readily available for biomass use on either total biomass use or its distribution among various
small scale combustion installations (e.g., fireplaces, stoves, etc.). In Western Europe the major sources of
black carbon were biomass and diesel use while in Central and Eastern Europe coal and “other” sources7

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, which includes European countries east to Russia and the USA and Canada.

8

EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook - 3rd edition September 20048

were significant as well. Diesel emissions in Western Europe and coal emissions in Central and Eastern
Europe are projected to show significant declines between 1990 and 2020 9 . Also, there is a need tounderstand the relationship between measurements and real-world emissions. While the methods are basedon existing inventories further methodological development is still needed.

2.8. Combustion Aerosol Emission Measurements
Ms. Lisa Graham, Environment Canada
Combustion sources include fossil fuel use (both stationary and mobile) and open burning (grass,
agriculture and waste). Mobile sources include both gasoline and diesel fuelled vehicles: in both cases if
low sulphur fuel is used the particulate is more than 95% carbon (although with quite different physicalproperties depending on the original fuel). Other fossil fuel emissions (e.g. from coal fired electric power
generation) have lower amounts of carbon. Emission rates and aerosol properties are highly dependent on
combustion conditions and control and abatement equipment. For open fires emissions also depend on
combustion conditions. Grass fires are mostly flaming and have higher black carbon to organic carbon
ratios while the ratio is lower for forest fires where there is also significant smouldering. Combustion
sources are also significant emitters of all types of aerosol precursors, and, in many cases, secondary
aerosol formation is larger than the primary emissions. Black carbon is a light absorbing, micro crystalline
graphitic form and is not the same as either elemental carbon (defined operationally by thermal evolution
and oxidation methods or soot (carbonaceous matter formed by combustion). Organic carbon is also
operationally defined. There is a need for standardised protocols for organic and elemental carbon
measurement. The understanding of the relationship between optical properties and chemical properties
needs to be improved. There is an urgent need for more simultaneous measurements on mass, particle size,
optical properties, number density and speciation to enable the use of the literature of chemical andphysical emissions characterisation information.

2.9. Global Estimates of Carbonaceous Aerosols using Bottom-Up10
Methods
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA.
Inventories of carbonaceous aerosols are more difficult to develop than those of other greenhouse gases as
they are dependent on processes (rather than the mass balance in CO2 or SO2), harder to validate (due tothe lifetimes and transformation in the atmosphere) and the link to optical and chemical properties is moredifficult to define. Emissions for a single fuel and source can vary widely due to operation and emission
controls. Residential biofuels are a significant source globally both for black carbon and even more so fororganic carbon. Major uncertainties arise from many sources. There are significant uncertainties in theamounts burnt (particularly for residential biofuel use and open burning). The relationship between
laboratory measurements and real-world combustion is unclear especially for road transport and small
combustion sources. For example owners of poorly maintained, highly emitting, vehicles are unlikely tohave them measured. Thus the importance of knowledge of operational practices, and their impacts, is

9

Kupiainen K. and Klimont Z.: (2004) Primary Emissions of Submicron and Carbonaceous Particles in Europe and the Potential

for their Control. Interim Report IR-04-079, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
10“Bottom-up” here refers to estimating emissions from an understanding of the size and scope of each source.

9

important in making estimates of primary aerosols from combustion. Current global inventories use fuelbased PM inventories and multiply by black carbon and organic carbon fractions to derive their emission
estimates
The latest estimates of BC are lower than the amount that global models need to explain the measured
concentrations and this discrepancy is large enough that it is unlikely to explicable by the uncertainties inthe emission estimates alone.
There is also a need to consider the current air quality estimates of aerosol emissions for their utility inestimates of emissions of aerosols relevant to climate change.
Table 1 Comparison of latest Emission Estimates of Black and Organic Carbon and those in the TAR.

Bond et al11
Fossil Fuel
Biomass
3.3
5.0
2.4
31

Black Carbon
Organic Carbon

TAR
Fossil Fuel
6-8
10-30

Biomass
6-9
45-80

Power

North America

Industry
Central/South America

Transport: Road
Transport: Non-road

Europe Former USSR

Residential: Other

Asia Middle East Pacific

Residential: Coal
Residential: Biofuel

Africa
Total
0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Figure 3 Global Sources of Black Carbon (Bond et. Al. 2004)
Power
Industry
Transport: Road
Transport: Non-road
Residential: Other
Residential: Coal
Residential: BiofuelNorth America
Central/South America
Europe Former USSR
Asia Middle East Pacific
Africa
Total
0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Figure 4 Global Sources of Organic Carbon, (Bond et. al. 2004)

Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4 show these recent estimates of black and organic carbon emissions.

11

Bond,T., Streets,D., Yarber,K., Nelson,S., Woo,J.-H., Klimont,Z., A technology-based global inventory of black and organiccarbon emissions from combustion, J. Geophys. Res., Vol.109, D14203, doi:10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004.

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3. Sectoral Considerations
The meeting broke into three breakout groups. Each group was requested to address the following issues
and questions:
1) How significant are the emissions for climate change?
2) What emissions are most important?
3) What are the principle estimation methods (e.g., top-down vs. bottom-up)?
4) What data are available?
5) What are the key uncertainties associated with emission estimates?
6) How important is the distinction between anthropogenic and natural emissions?
7) How important is secondary aerosol formation?
8) What is the importance of definitional issues (e.g., BC vs. EC. vs. OC)?
9) What relevant work is being done in other fora such as the air quality community?
10) What are the priorities for future research?
The groups’ main conclusions12 are presented in sections 3.1-3.3. Annexes 1, 2 and 3 present their detailed
reports.
There was a broad agreement on a number of topics between the groups. These included:z The definition of Black and Organic Carbon needs to be improved. How estimates of thesequantities can be derived from PM2.5 and PM1 inventories need to be considered. Existing
particulate inventories are a useful starting point and can provide simple ways of producing
inventories building on previous work.
z The operation and management of emission sources is very important in considering emission
rates for aerosols. This is true for all sources, for example, open fires, small biomass stoves, cars,
as well as larger boilers and industrial processes. This information is difficult to collect, often it isunobtainable. Thus emission estimates will be uncertain and laboratory measurements may notreflect real world practices and emissions. Emission abatement results in particle size dependent
emission reductions specific to the abatement type and operation, and this also needs to beconsidered.
z There is a general discrepancy in the use of “anthropogenic” vs. “natural” emissions between
IPCC WGI and NGGIP as used by the UNFCCC. Under the IPCC guidance (from the NGGIP),
for example, emissions from “managed” land - whether caused by human fires or, say, lightning
strike - would be considered anthropogenic and reported internationally as such, whereas IPCCWGI might categorise these emissions as natural.
z Methodologies for the estimation of precursor gases are generally available. While most of thiswas produced for North America and Europe much is applicable more widely, and emission
factors from other parts of the world are becoming more widely available. While NMVOC and its
speciation are available in some regions it is an exception: its existing methodologies may not be
so transferable, as the emission rates are so closely linked to raw materials used, management andoperation.
z While many methods and emission factors need improvement, all groups identified the need for
improved activity data. For example, individual groups identified: the amount of biomass used as
12

These group reports were produced independently and so may contain some minor inconsistencies in terminology.

11

fuel; areas burnt in forest fire and their fuel loading; and better data on land types, their area andsoil properties.

3.1. Sectoral Conclusions
3.1.1. Energy – Conclusionsx IPCC brings together a group of experts representing broad areas (both technically andgeographically) and it would be useful to convene additional expert meetings that would focus on
specific issues particularly gaps in ongoing activities applicable to climate issues.
x There is a need for ongoing coordination within the IPCC (NGGIP and WG1) and involving
external groups of experts to integrate understanding in relevant fields and identify areas importantfor further consideration. Some of areas of potential interest are:o Parameters of climate models
o Definitional issues (i.e. definitions of Black Carbon, Organic Carbon, size fractions ofinterest)o Key issues in characterizing sectoral emissions

3.1.2. Industry and Other Sources - Conclusions
Further work by IPCC should include:x defining which (non-combustion) sources have a climate impact taking into account the size andchemical composition and above-ground height of emissionx Facilitate discussion about international research prioritiesx Dissemination of the report to important and relevant stakeholders for the purpose of promoting
relevant research by national/international organizationsx Consider an IPCC expert meeting to review progress in research activities and methodology
development on aerosol inventories since this first expert meeting; assess uncertainties andpropose plans for future work.

3.1.3. Land Use Emissions - Conclusionsx Enhanced interaction between the NGGIP and the climate science community is recommended.
x A review and close links to the work done on air quality issues is needed to use information andmethods already developed, particularly in areas such as particulate emissions from the many typesof open burning, precursor emissions of NMVOC from forests and emissions from agriculturalactivities.

124. Conclusions and Recommendations
In addition to the conclusions of the TAR (see Box 3, below), this meeting reached some general
conclusions from the inventory standpoint on steps to improve estimates of aerosols and ultimately reduce
uncertainties in their radiative forcing:z Global inventories of emissions of aerosols relevant to climate change have been produced.
However they contain significant uncertainties. In addition, it is not possible, at this stage, toreliably produce internationally comparable national emission estimates or to estimate realdifferences in emission characteristics between countries. Work is needed to reduce some of theuncertainties and to pursue the research priorities identified in this report. Significant data gaps
continue to exist. Most current global and regional emission inventories are based on a very
limited and non-representative set of emission and speciation factors and often lack the required
differentiation of activity data.
z To improve the quality of data used in global and regional inventories there needs to beconsideration of the different measurement methods of each of Black Carbon, Elemental Carbon
and Organic Carbon. Consideration of the development of standard methodologies that provide
less ambiguous results, and the development of methods to relate results of different methods toeach other, is urgently needed to reduce uncertainties surrounding these estimates. The NGGIP
could review the implications of these differences on inventories estimates; however a wider
consultation is needed to resolve this issue. While the role of the IPCC could be to encourage andfacilitate this discussion, the IPCC is not itself the body to take responsibility for carrying out
research programmes for setting measurement standards.
The meeting made specific recommendations for further work by the IPCC:z Co-operation within the IPCC between the WG1 scientific work on climate change and the
NGGIP global emission inventory work, started at this meeting, and was found to be valuable.
z Any future work on aerosol emissions, particularly by the NGGIP, should be focussed on theneeds of the relevant research communities. Given the importance of “natural” emissions, themethodological overlap with other anthropogenic sources and the uncertainty of defining
anthropogenic and natural emissions the NGGIP should not limit its consideration toanthropogenic sources.
z The meeting concluded that further similar meetings participated by WG1, NGGIP and otheraerosol inventory experts (particularly from the local and regional air quality fields) should be
held. These meetings should focus on some of the specific issues identified during the current
meeting. Three main topics for consideration are:oNeeds of speciated aerosols emission data and definitions. Climate model research would
be significantly facilitated if required data are made available. There are no universally
accepted unique definitions of Black Carbon, Organic Carbon or Elemental Carbon.
Existing approaches work in the current state of models but for the development ofcomparable inventories clearer less ambiguous measurement methods would be needed.
Agreed standard measurement methods for these parameters, or reference materials thatcan be used for method intercomparison need to be developed, most likely by bodies
outside the IPCC. These definitions of aerosols need to be considered and conversion
facilities between the different classifications and measurements of aerosols would be
beneficial. Particle parameters to be inventoried also need to be defined in consultation
13

with climate modellers. In particular a basic convention on the appropriate size cut-offs tobe used should be developed considering both the needs of the climate models and the data
available to implement it in inventories. Possible aerosol parameters of interest include
size distribution, number concentration, size segregated chemical speciation,
hygroscopicity, light absorption and light scattering. The expected outputs may include: Develop convention on size cut-offs for particulate consideration for climatechange relevance.
 Definition of parameters needed for climate modelling.
 Approaches to deriving these from existing particulate inventories and or emission
factors (usually these will be mass based).
oo

Use of existing inventory information. Several issues should be considered such as: How
can existing PM2.5 inventories be used or improved for climate model research? How caninformation collected for health and air quality purposes be used? Exactly what
information is available in these other fora? It is clear that in some areas (i.e. NMVOC
from forests, aerosols from fires and fugitive emissions) much work has been done but its
usefulness should be reviewed. This will depend on a closer interaction between the
NGGIP, the air quality inventory community and climate model research scientists.
Working in conjunction with other organisations (e.g. IGBP) could also address the
additional needs of the NGGIP. The expected outputs may include: Descriptions of methods to base climate relevant aerosol inventories on existing
inventories compiled for other proposes. Decisions on how to use PM2.5 and PM1inventories and which aerosol inventories are not appropriate to be used in thisway.
Sectoral issues. Many sectors need to be improved. Some key sectors for further
consideration include the use of biofuels (particularly small combustion); open burning;
dust emissions and biogenic aerosols. The expected outputs may include: Consideration of material or inputs needed to improve estimates of these sectors.
 Review of the impacts of management and operational issues on emission
estimates

14

Box 3 Conclusions on Aerosols from the TAR
The TAR WG1 (Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis) made a number of conclusions and recommendation to
reduce uncertainty in estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and improve confidence in the role of aerosols in climate
processes:
zSystematic Ground-Based Measurements: There is a need for countries of the world to develop and support a
network of systematic ground-based observations of aerosol properties in the atmosphere that include a varietyof physical and chemical measurements ranging from local in situ to remotely sensed total column or verticalprofile properties.
zSystematic Vertical Profile Measurements: There is a paucity of systematic vertical profile measurements ofsize-segregated or even total atmospheric aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties.
zCharacterisation of Aerosol Processes in Selected Regions: There is a need for integrated measurements to beundertaken in a number of situations to enhance the capability to quantitatively simulate the processes that
influence the size-aggregated concentration and composition of aerosols and their gaseous precursors.
zIndirect Forcing Studies: There is a broad need for several carefully designed multi-platform (surface-based
boat, aircraft and satellite) closure studies that elucidate the processes that determine cloud microphysical (e.g.,size-distributed droplet number concentration and chemical composition, hydrometer type) and macrophysicalproperties (e.g., cloud thickness, cloud liquid-water content, precipitation rate, total column cloud, albedo).
zMeasurements of Aerosol Characteristics from Space: An integrated strategy for reducing uncertainties should
include high quality measurements of aerosols from space.
See TAR, WG1, Chapter 5 Aerosols, their Direct and Indirect Effects) Sec. 5.6: Investigations Needed to Improve
Confidence in Estimates of Aerosol Forcing and the Role of Aerosols in Climate Processes

15Annex 1 Report of Energy Group
Fuel combustion is an important source of both aerosols and aerosol precursors (SO2, NOx and NMVOC).
It is important for a number of factors (for regional significance, for precursors, for BC and OC, for coarse
and fine aerosols). The sector is composed of a variety of sub-sectors and all of these (power generation,industry, residential, transport etc) are important for at least one of these concerns. The main sources in the
Energy use sector are:x Power plants and industrial combustionx Industrial furnaces and fuel conversion
x Residential/Commercial combustionx Transport (Road, Land based off-road, Marine and Aviation)x Waste incineration (only with energy recovery)
Table 2 shows the importance of individual sectors within the fuel use area. A source is considered
important if it provides a significant fraction of global or regional (several countries) burden but not if
it is important only on a local/urban basis.

2
2

2
2

Industrial furnaces (process heat) ALL FUELS
Fuel conversion (coking, charcoal, briquettes)

2
3

U
U

Residential Fuel Combustion COAL
Residential Fuel Combustion LIQUID/GAS (external
combustion)
Residential Fuel Combustion
BIOFUEL
Residential Fuel Combustion
DIESEL (stationary internal combustion engine)

3

2

Transport – diesel
Transport – gasoline
Marinea)
Air transportationa)
Transport - Non-tail pipe

3
2
1
1b)

3

Controls

Electric Power Generation (Utilities) PC, FBCElectric Power Generation (Utilities) GRATE
Electric Power Generation (Utilities) LIQUID/GAS

Light
absorption

CoarsePrimary Aerosol
PM2.5 massand light
scattering

SourcePrecursors tosecondaryaerosols

Table 2 Importance of Energy Sectors

3

*
*
*

2/U
3/U

1
2

*
*

3

2
1

3

3

1

1

3

3
3
3
I

1

1

*
*
*

1

Waste incinerationUU*
3 = very important, 2 = important, 1 = less important and a blank = not important or zero. U = unknown, indicates that thegroup felt there was insufficient information to determine the importance*- Efficient controls (end-of-pipe) are available so the emission factor for a specific region will strongly depend on thepenetration of the control technology.
a)- Impact on cloud formationb)-The information on the impact of aviation will be provided in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report

16

The method used to estimate emissions from these sectors is the standard emission factor equation13:
Emission = Emission Factor * Activity Data
Here the emission factor is often highly dependent on the actual combustion technology used; extent andtype of control equipment used and its real world efficiency; and in the operation or management practices.
For some source categories (e.g. large emitters) it may be possible to use existing emission inventories or
emission reporting developed for other purposes, though in these cases often there will be a need to apply a
speciation or other conversion factor (size, chemical, etc.), to derive climate relevant quantities. However,for some inventories (e.g. PM10) further division is necessary before using this approach.

Data availability & quality
Table 3 shows a review of data availability of the main fuel use sectors. However there are some more
important and general observations:x We are fairly confident about the quantity of fuel used for most of the source-categories but
there is a large uncertainty (often a complete lack of knowledge) about the use by different
technologies within each sector, for example, the share of fuel used in a specific type of
installation with or without abatement technology.
x The uncertainties associated with quantity of biofuels used are usually far greater than forfossil fuels.
x The importance of biofuels to aerosol emissions appears greater than to emissions ofgreenhouse gases. The same is true for small combustion sources.
x We are moderately confident of the emission factors for on-road transport and large scale
power generation in developed countries but we are not sure of the applicability of thesefactors in countries where there have been fewer measurements.
x Off-road transport is a challenge for all countries in terms of both activity data and emission
factors
To summarise, experts confront three main situations:x Emission data available in almost the appropriate form: can incorporate into global inventory using
source specific conversion factors (e.g. mobile sources)x Emission data not available but available estimation methods could be directly applied: further
discussion on methods would be useful (e.g. aircraft)x Emission data not available; existing estimation methods not mature, but underlying data are
available: targeted efforts and consultations would improve data and estimation methods (e.g.
biofuel use)

Uncertainties
Overall the main uncertainties are:x Data to distinguish the important technologies and use of controlsx Real-life operating practices (e.g., real world control efficiency, vehicle use – speed, driving
patterns etc., small combustion operation and management)

13

See section 2.7, where a more detailed representation of this equation is presented

17

x
x
x
x
x
x

Geographical variation in quality of information
PM 1.0 vs PM 2.5: Ongoing issue (climate vs health/urban)
Measurements
Size distribution
Light-absorbing substance: how to measure? (EC/BC issue)
Sampling issues

Table 3 Data Availability for aerosol emission estimates for fuel combustion (the first item is for North
America and Europe, the second for developing countries)
ClimateRelevant

Type of activity data

Priorities

Composition

Differentiatio
n for Aerosols

Size

Data
availability
emissionfactorPrimary
aerosols(PM2 5)??
Precursors

SourceElectric Power Generation (Utilities)
Pulverised Coal, Fluidised Bed
Combustion
Electric Power Generation (Utilities)
Grate Firing
Electric Power Generation (Utilities)
Liquid and Gaseous Fuels

A/C*

A/A

B/B

A/C

Fuel consumption

B/C

D/D

B/D

D/D

Fuel consumption

A/B

A/A

A

B

Fuel consumption

Industrial furnaces (process heat) All
Fuels
Fuel conversion (coking, charcoal,briquettes)

B/D

B/D

B

D

A/D

B/D

B/D

B/D

Fuel consumption, commodity
production
Fuel consumption, secondary
fuel production

Residential Fuel Combustion - Coal
Residential Fuel Combustion Liquid andGaseous Fuels (external combustion)
Residential Fuel Combustion
Biofuels
Residential Fuel Combustion
Liquid Fuels (stationary internal
combustion engine)

B/B
B/C

B/B
B/C

B/B
A/A

B/B
B/B

Fuel consumption
Fuel consumption

B/B

B/B

B/B

B/B

B/C

B/B

A/A

B/B

Fuel consumption; per-capita
consumption
Fuel consumption

Transport – Diesel

B/C

B/C

A/A

B/C

Transport – Gasoline

B/C

B/C

A/A

B/D

Marine

B/C

B/C

B/B

B/C

Air transportation
Transport - Non-tail pipe

B/C
B/D

B/B
D/D

A/A
B/B

B/B
B/B

Fuel consumed or hours
drivenFuel consumption, km flown
Km driven

Waste incineration

A/D

D/D

B/D

B/D

Waste consumed

Fuel consumed, km driven,hours of operation
Fuel consumed or km driven

MODERATE – EF for aerosols andprecursors

HIGH – EF for aerosols
HIGH – EF for aerosols

HIGH – improve quality of
information on commercial andnon-commercial use of fuels(primarily coal and biofuel)
HIGH – EF for primary aerosols
and NMVOC

HIGH – EF off-road
MODERATE – modes oftransportation in developing
countries
MODERATE – EF for precursors
and spatial resolution
MODERATE -A – Satisfactory
B – Some data; because of source variability, still needs more characterizationC – Data from some well-measured regions, but unclear how they apply to global sources
C* - Primary difference between regions is control device; global data could be improved by obtaining size-dependent removal efficiency
D – No or very little data (when given for global sources, implies that combustion process or other characteristics may be very different innature)18

Table 4 Key Sectoral Uncertainties

SourceKey uncertainties

Electric Power Generation (Utilities) –Coal ( Pulverised Coal, Fluidised Bed
Combustion, Grate firing), Liquid andGaseous Fuels

Penetration of control technology

Industrial furnaces (process heat) All
Fuels

Technological splits (developing countries); EF; size andchemical speciation

Fuelconversion
briquettes)

EF; chemical speciation(coking,charcoal,

Residential Fuel Combustion - Coal

Emission factor for grate firing

EF; size and chemical speciation

Residential Fuel Combustion Liquid/Gas(external combustion)
Residential Fuel Combustion -Biofuel

Fuel use and type (accounting for non-commercial biofuel use,technological splits); size and chemical speciation; EF(representing real installations and their operating conditions)

Residential Fuel Combustion Diesel(stationary internal combustion engine)

Technology, fuel use and EF

Transport – on-road

Representing real vehicles and operating conditions; real-world
EF (lab data vs road data)

Transport – off-road

Technology, activity and EF

MarineEF (depending on quality of fuel)Air transportation

Technological split (engine types); real-world EF (lab engine
data vs real data)

Transport - Non-tail pipeEF, chemical speciation

Waste incineration

Activity type and EF for small industrial facilities

Possible contribution of IPCC
x IPCC brings together a group of experts representing broad areas (both technically andgeographically) and it would be useful to convene additional expert meetings that would focus on
specific issues and further detail identifying gaps in ongoing activities as applicable to climate
issues.
x This meeting identified a need for ongoing coordination within the IPCC (NGGIP and WG1) andinvolving external groups of experts to integrate understanding in relevant fields and identify areas
important for further consideration. Some of areas of potential interest are:o Parameters of climate models
o Definitional issues
o Key issues in characterizing sectoral emissions

19

Annex 2 Report of the Industrial Processes and Other
Emissions Group
Table 5 lists potential sources of emissions, including precursor sources (sources of SO2, NH3, NOx and
NMVOC) and an indication of their importance14. Some of these are additional sources to those describedin the existing IPCC Inventory Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gases. There are many more sourcesthat are considered to be of small global or regional relevance due to their overall activity level.
The likely most important sources are:x Cementx Petrochemical processes (mainly NMVOC)x Iron and steelx Solvents (mainly NMVOC)
x Road dustx Waste handlingx Mining and quarryingx Oil and gas upstream (including significant NMVOC emissions)
Climate modellers would like a wide range of parameters including mass emissions, size distribution, lightabsorption/scattering efficiency, chemical composition and water solubility per source. This list cannot besatisfied with data available currently or in the near future. However, the possibility to generate a simple
standard model to derive this data for atmospheric research from available measured data should be
investigated.
Some of the sectors considered here overlap with the other groups and in future work clear definitions need
to be developed of the categorization and classification of the sources, especially as some are outside theexisting guidelines.
Mass emissions of TSP/PM10 are often available from large industries, but are missing for smallerindustries and area sources. Size speciation is often missing or only available in scattered studies so theseinventories may have little application for climate relevant aerosols, without further investigation of thesmaller size fractions. Sometimes chemical composition is obvious, in other cases it is only available fromscattered studies.
Estimation methods require activity data, technology specific emission factors and size and chemical
speciation. Information on production technologies, control technologies and their shares are needed to
implement the estimation methodologies. Currently uncertainties of industrial aerosol inventories are large
and this uncertainty originates from all these input parameters.

14

A clear threshold and global emission estimates to assess significance is, however, missing (PM10 likely to be larger than 1 Tg

was used as a rule of thumb).

20

Table 5 Main Sources of Aerosols and their Climate ImportanceSourceMineral Industry
Cement Production
Lime Production
Glass Production
Mineral Wool
Ceramics
Other Magnesia Production
Other Uses of Soda Ash
Miscellaneous Uses of Limestone, Dolomite
and Other Carbonate
Chemical Industry
Ammonia Production
Nitric Acid Production (including fertilizer
production but not use)
Adipic Production
Carbide Production
Caprolactam Production
Titanium Dioxide Production
Soda Ash Production
Petrochemical Process
Metal Industry
Iron & Steel Production
Ferro-Alloys Production
Aluminium Production
Magnesium Production
Zinc Production
Lead Production
Foundries
Non-Energy Products Use of Fuels
Asphalt Paving of Roads and Roofing
Solvents and Other Chemical Product Use
OtherCoal mining (Open mining)
Mineral mining
Construction and demolition
Coal Stock Piles
Rock Stock Piles
Product Stock Piles (e.g. Cement clinker)
Entrained Road Dust (including railway)
Transport of bulk products
Wood industry (including papr and pulp)
Handling of agricultural products and waste
Solid waste disposal (landfill, waste
incineration, open burning)
Nano-particle production and use
Food industry
Oil & Gas, Upstream business and refineries
Coke ovens
Gas Flaring

Importance

Aerosol,
Precursor orboth

Key Uncertainties

3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols

Speciation for technologies
Speciation for technologies

22

Precursors
Precursors

Emission factor
Emission factor

1
1
1
1
2
3

Precursors
Aerosols
Precursors
Aerosols
Aerosols
Precursors

Size distribution
Chemical speciation

3
1
2
1
1
1
2

Both
Both
Both
Both
Both
Both
Both

2
3

Precursors
Precursors

Emission factor, Chemical speciation
Activity data, Chemical speciation

3
2
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
3
3

Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
Both
Both

Size distribution, Emission factor
Size distribution, Emission factor
Size distribution, Emission factor, Activity data

Size distribution, Emission factor for small plants
Technology data, Emission factor
Size distribution, Activity data

1
2
3
2
2

Aerosols
Both
Both
Both
Both

Size distribution
Chemical speciation, Emission factor
Emission factor
Activity data, Operational condition

Size distribution
Size distribution

Size distribution, Chemical composition, Technology

Activity data, Technology data, Emission Factor

3 = very important, 2 = important, 1 = less important. Unimportant or zero emission sectors omitted.

There are problems in the distinction between black carbon and organic carbon emissions in cases where
both of them are emitted together.
The method used to estimate emissions for all these sources is: emission factor times activity rate. This
activity rate is a parameter such as amount produced; input substance consumed or distance travelled.
Precursor emission estimation methodologies are generally quite well developed (for NH3, NOx, SO2 and
NMVOC). NMVOC speciation is, however, often missing. Currently PM10 and PM2.5 inventories are being
developed for air quality purposes. Emission estimation methodologies and chemical speciation data are21

expected to be developed for the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) andthe European Union over the next years. It is expected that similar activities take place in other regions of
the world.
Finally, there are a large number of potential sources in this sector and, in order to reduce the number ofsources that need to be considered, further assessment the size of each source is required. Conclusions
about which source fractions are important can only be made in consultation with climate modellers.
Suggested issues for further review and research include:x Systematic measurements on size distribution and chemical composition for different industrial
processes and control technologiesx Harmonization of Organic Carbon and Elemental Carbon sampling and analysis methodologiesx Development of a simple standard model to derive parameters to derive required aerosolparameters from available measured datax Improved quantification of emissions from non-point sourcesx Improved quantification of precursors emissions in developing countries (especially NMVOC andNH3)x Classification and survey of relevant production and control technologies, including super-emittersx Scoping study to further assess the importance of the sources listed, including case studies on
specific sectors (cement, iron and steel, road non-exhaust).
x Identify and quantify uncertainties and systematically work to reduce themx Identify particles size and emission rate threshold for climate relevanceFurther work by IPCC should include:x Facilitate discussion about international research prioritiesx Dissemination of the report to important to relevant stakeholders for the purpose of promoting
relevant research by national/international organizationsx Consider an IPCC expert meeting to review progress in research activities and methodology
development on aerosol inventories since this first expert meeting; assess uncertainties andpropose plans for future work.

22Annex 3 Report of Land Use Emissions Group
Table 6 shows the sources of aerosol emissions from different kinds of “land use15”. This sector covers
emissions from the land surface, both natural and anthropogenic. Emissions can come from dust, fires andagricultural activities. Settlements, can also give rise to significant emissions.

Cropland

Grassland

Wetlands

Settlements

Other landa

SourceForest land

Table 6 Sources of Aerosol Emissions from Land Use and their Climatic Importance.

1

2

2

1

1-2

3

3

2

2-3

2d

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

3e

2

1

1f

1

1

Dust Emissionsbx Soil Dustx Agriculture
Biomass Burningc
x
x
x
x

Wild Fires
Prescribed Fires, Slash & Burn
Savannah Burning
Burning of Agricultural & Deforestation
Residues
Biogenic Aerosolsx Pollen and Sporesx Leaf litter
Biogenic Precursors
x NMVOC Emissionsx Nitrogen & Sulphur Compound Emissionsx Livestock (Nitrogen Compounds)
3 = important, 2 = potentially important, 1 = not important

Notes:abcdefIncludes bare soils, rocks, ice and all unmanaged lands that do not fall within the above categories
Large emissions can occur due to land use conversions e.g. from forests to croplandAlso produces precursors – mainly nitrogen and NMVOC species
Peat fires in wetlands
Primarily terpenes and isoprene but also some NOx
Some sulphur emissions

There is a general discrepancy in the use of “anthropogenic” vs. “natural” emissions between IPCC WGIand NGGIP as used by the UNFCCC. Under the IPCC guidance (from the NGGIP), for example,
emissions from “managed” land - whether caused by human fires or, say, lightning strike - would beconsidered anthropogenic and reported internationally as such, whereas IPCC WGI might categorise theseemissions as natural.

15

These land use categories are those used in the IPCC Guidelines on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

23

Dust Emissions
These are soil particles, wind lofted in the coarse mode (with a modal diameter typically of a few
micrometers). They are potentially significant for climate change (negative direct forcing) due to highemission rates and are mostly emitted from unmanaged land. Some agricultural activities were notconsidered for example, liming (spread from aeroplanes), fertilizer application and off-road machinery.
This sector is not currently included in the IPCC guidelines as it does not emit any of the greenhouse gases
they cover.
The parameters of interest for the climate models are mass emission, optical properties, mineralcomposition and the size distribution. While PM10 (particles less than 10 microns) is an ideal definition forclimate change an understanding of particles up to 40 microns is also needed as this determines the massemission properties.
The existing emission estimates are largely based on models of the emission process based on
meteorological data and land types. These still need to be validated against observational data (including
satellite data). Satellite measurements provide some constraints on the emission estimates. There do notappear to be many regional or national inventories.
These estimates could be improved by:x Better data on aspects of land types. Parameters such as soil texture (mineral composition), soil
moisture and vegetation index are needed. Current IPCC methodologies on land use and land usechange can provide useful input;x A better understanding of the meteorology (turbulent mix and wind speed) is needed;x Measurements of emission flux to improve the methodologies are also needed;x There is a need to validate the models against observational data.

Open Biomass Burning and Wild Fires
These are highly carbonaceous aerosols typically of sub-micrometer diameter plus many reactive
precursors for secondary aerosol formation (i.e. gases such as NOx and NMVOC but also SOx and NH3).
This source is highly significant for direct and indirect radiative forcing. The significance of anthropogenic
and natural emissions varies by region but is mainly anthropogenic. The status of wildfires (natural or
anthropogenic) may need more careful definition.
The parameters of interest for the climate models are mass emission of aerosols and precursors, opticalproperties, particle composition, speciation of NMVOC and the size distribution. Given the size of theaerosol emissions a size distribution up to PM1 (particles less than 1 micron) is sufficient.
Some monitoring tools are established in this area but issues such as burnt areas, fuel load, combustion
efficiency, and emission factors are still the source of key uncertainties. Current estimation methods
depend on the mass burned (or a surrogate for the mass) and emission rates. Ways to estimate the amountburnt and a significant part of the methodology needed to derive biomass burning aerosol emission
inventories already exist in IPCC-NGGIP Guidelines.
In many areas there is a lack of basic data such as area burnt and fuel load, the combustion efficiency andappropriate emission factors.
A better understanding of the reactive chemistry in the smoke plumes would improve understanding of theemissions. There needs to be better description of the physical and chemical properties of the resulting

24

aerosols. Current IPCC inventory methodologies would need to address the temporal and spatial
resolutions to develop better resolved aerosol inventories.

Biogenic Primary Aerosols
These are primary particles including pollen, spores, bacteria, leaf litter, etc. mainly on the coarse mode
fraction.
The area of biogenic aerosol inventories is still at a very early stage of developing the understanding of
global aerosol and their effect on the climate system. The present scientific knowledge limits our ability toquantify the significance of these aerosols on the climate system. For primary particles, we need to develop
generally accepted sampling and analysis methodologies.
The diversity of emission sources and emission mechanisms still are mainly unknown. Clearly this is anarea where much basic research is needed.

Biogenic Precursors
These are precursors of secondary aerosol originating from biological activities, particularly from forest
trees and soils. The secondary particles include organic aerosol from the oxidation of NMVOC, andnitrogen and sulphur compounds. Biogenic sources have a very high significance for the formation of
secondary aerosols. Emissions from forests (primarily terpenes and isoprene but also some NOx) are asignificant source of precursors, e.g. soil emissions. Those particles contribute mainly to the fine mode
fraction and have a high potential significance for indirect forcing.
The existing NGGIP methodologies would offer a good starting point especially for soil emissions. Somework has been done, at regional scales, on inventories to address air quality issues (particularly
photochemical pollution) and the emissions methods used there should be reviewed for their applicability
for global use. A review of the methods available for speciated NMVOC estimates is needed and this area
may require further work.

General Conclusionsx Enhanced interaction between the NGGIP and the climate science community (especially aerosols)
is recommended.
x A review and close links to the work done on air quality issues is needed to use information andmethods already developed, particularly in areas such as particulate emissions from the many typesof open burning, precursor emissions of NMVOC from forests and emissions from agriculturalactivities.

25Annex 4 Agenda
IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme
Expert Meetingon Emission Estimation of Aerosols Relevant to Climate Change
2-4 May 2005
Geneva, Switzerland

Provisional Draft Annotated Agenda (ver. 2005.03.31)
09:30 Opening
Opening and introduction by TFB Co-chairs, IPCC Secretary and TSU
10:00 – 12:00 Plenary Session I: Keynote Presentations:
Direct effects of aerosols on climate: What do we know?
Prof. Joyce Penner, University of Michigan, USA

Indirect Effects: Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics
Prof. Ulrike Lohmann, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
Switzerland

EC/OC Emissions: Current Understanding & Relevant Issues
Dr. ZHANG Xiaoye, Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services, China

Aerosol Coupling with Photochemistry of Greenhouse Gases
Professor Michael Prather, University of California, USA

12:00-12:30
Discussion on data, including characterisation of aerosols required for greenhouse gas impact
research.

12:30 – 14:00 LUNCH

14:00 – 16:30 Plenary Session II: Current Knowledge:
Definitional Issues for Aerosols
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA

Soil Dust Emissions
Dr. Ina Tegen, Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany

26

Practical Experiences of Aerosol Inventory Preparation - European Perspective
Dr. Kristin Rypdal, CICERO & Dr Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA)

Aerosol Emission Measurements
Dr. Lisa Graham, Environment Canada

Global Estimates of Carbonaceous Aerosols using Bottom-Up Methods
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA
16:30 – 18:00
General Discussion on extent of current inventories and their applicability to greenhouse gas
issues.

Day 2 and Day 3 (Morning Hours): Breakout Groups
BOG Facilitators will be nominated and they will lead the discussions..
BOG 1: Fuel Use

BOG 2: Industrial Emissions

Fossil Fuel Emissions (including transport Industrial Process Emissions
exhaust emissions)e.g. Cement
Biomass used as a fuelMining & Quarrying (non-fuel?)
Other Energy Sources?
Precursor Emissions (SOx, NOx,
Mining, Transport and Processing of Fuels?
NMVOC)BOG 3: Land Use

BOG 4: Other Sources

Dust Emissions from Different Land Uses

Other Sources Including:

Biogenic aerosols

Entrained Road Dust

Characterization of this “Dust”

Construction

Definition of Anthropogenic Emissions

Stock piles

NH3,

Transport of bulk products

Note:

1.

“Emissions” includes both quantity and parameters characterizing the emissions.

General Questions:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Which sources’ emissions can be estimated?
How can these emissions be characterized?
Is mass the best quantity unit? What size information is needed?
What distinction can be made between natural and anthropogenic emissions?
Should emission estimates cover direct emissions and precursor emissions or include some estimatesof secondary emissions?

Day 3 Afternoon: Conclusion

27

Annex 5 List of Participants
Expert Meeting on Emission Estimation of Aerosols Relevant to Climate Change
2 – 4 May 2005 WMO Headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland*Co-Chairs of the Bureau of the Task Force on IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme** Bureau members of the Task Force on IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme

Cuba
Carlos M. LÓPEZ CABRERA
Institute of Meteorology
Loma de Casablanca, Regla, Ciudad de La
HabanaCP 11700 Habana 17
Tel : (537) 867 0771
Fax : (537) 866 8010
cmlopezca@yahoo.com

Australia
John GRASCSIRO Atmospheric Research
PMB No 1 Aspendale
Vic 3195
Tel : (61 3) 9239 4614
Fax : (61 3) 9239 4444
John.Gras@csiro.au
BrazilPaulo ARTAXO
Institute of Physics, University of Sao Paulo
Rua do Matao, Travessa R, 187, USP Cidade
Universitaria
CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, S.P.
Tel : (55 11) 3091 7016
Fax : (55 11) 3091 6749
artaxo@if.usp.br

Germany
Jochen HARNISCH
Ecofys GmbH
Landgrabenstrasse 94
D-90443 Nürnberg
Tel : (49 911) 130 7575 / 994 4677
Fax : (49 911) 994 4678
j.harnisch@ecofys.de
Ina TEGEN
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research
Permoserstr. 15
04318 Leipzig
Tel : (49 341) 235 2146
Fax : (49 341) 235 2139
itegen@tropos.de

Thelma KRUG *Inter-American Institute for Global Change
Research
Avenida dos Astronautas 1758, Jardim da Granja
12297-010 Sao Jose dos Campos, SP
Tel : (55 12) 3945 6895
Fax : (55 12) 3941 4410
thelma@dir.iai.int

Sabine Christiane WURZLER
North Rhine-Westphalia State Environment
Agency(LUA NRW)
Schederhofstr. 6
D-45145 Essen
Tel : (49 201) 7995 1313
Fax : (49 201) 7995 1575
Sabine.wurzler@lua.nrw.de

CanadaLisa GRAHAM
Environment Canada
335 River Road
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0H3
Tel : (1 613) 990 1270
Fax : (1 613) 952 1006
Lisa.Graham@ec.gc.ca

Japan
Taka HIRAISHI *c/o IGES
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi
Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
hiraishi@iges.or.jp

China
Xiaoye ZHANG
Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services
China Meteorological Administration
46 Zhongguancun South Avenue
Beijing 100081
Tel : (86 10) 6840 8943
Fax : (86 10) 6217 5931
xiaoye@cams.cma.gov.cn
28

Fax : (34) 934 110 012
Xavier.querol@ija.csic.es
Switzerland
Ulrike LOHMANNETH, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate
Science
Schafmattstr. 30, HPP L1.2
CH-8093 Zurich
Tel : (41 1) 633 0514
Fax : (41 1) 633 1058
ulrike.lohmann@env.ethz.ch

Hideaki NAKANENational Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506
Tel : (81 29) 850 2491
Fax : (81 29) 858 2920
nakane@nies.go.jp
Netherlands
Maarten VAN HET BOLSCHERTNO Built Environment and Geosciences
Laan van Westenenk 501
P.O. Box 342, 7300 AH Apeldoorn
Tel : (31 55) 549 3303
Fax : (31 55) 549 3252
maarten.vanhetbolscher@tno.nl

Tanazania
Jamidu KATIMA **University of Dar es Salaam
P.O. Box 35131, Dar es Salaam
Tel : (255 22) 241 0754
Fax : (255 22) 241 0114
Jamidu_Katima@yahoo.co.uk

NorwayKristin RYPDAL
Center for International Climate andEnvironmental
Research (CICERO)
P.O. Box 1129 Blindern
N-0318 Oslo
Tel : (47) 22 85 87 80
Fax : (47) 22 85 87 51
kristin.rypdal@cicero.uio.no

USA
Tami BOND
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
NCELMC-250
205 N, Mathews Ave.
Urbana, IL 61801
Tel : (1 217) 244 5277
Fax : (1 217) 333-6968
yark@uiuc.edu

RussiaAnatoly NIKOLAYEVInstitute of Global Climate and Ecology
20-B, Glebovskaya str.
Moscow 107258
Tel : (7 095) 160 5862
Fax : (7 095) 160 0831
anik-igce@niipp-moskva.ru /anik.igce@rambler.ru

Benjamin DeANGELOUS Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW (6207J)
Washington, DC 20460
Tel : (1 202) 343 9107
Fax : (1 202) 343 2202
deangelo.ben@epa.gov
Dina KRUGER **US Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW (6202J)
Washington, DC 20460
Tel : (1 202) 343 9039
Fax : (1 202) 343 2208
kruger.dina@epamail.epa.gov

Slovakia
Jana MATEJOVICOVASlovak Hydrometeorological InstituteJeséniova 17
833 15 Bratislava
Tel : (421 2) 59415 305
Fax : (421 2) 5477 3620
Jana.Matejovicova@shmu.sk

Brian T. MADER
3M Company – Environmental Laboratorz
935 Bush Avenue, Building 2-3E-09
St. Paul, MN 55144
Tel : (1 651) 778 6750
Fax : (1 651) 778 4226
bmader@mmm.com

Spain
Xavier QUEROL
Institute of Earth Science, CSIC (Spanish
Research Council)
Street Lluis Sole y Sabaris S/NBarcelona E-08028
Tel : (34) 934 095 410

29

Joyce PENNER
University of Michigan
2455 Hayward
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143
Tel : (1 734) 936 0519
Fax : (1 734) 936 0503
penner@umich.edu

ZambiaJoseph Katongo KANYANGA
Zambia Meteorological Department
P.O.Box 30200
Lusaka 10101
Tel : (260 1) 252 728 / 281 877
Fax : (260 1) 251 795
zmd@zamnet.zm / jk_kanyanga@yahoo.com

Michael PRATHER
University of California at Irvine
3329 Croul Hall
Earth System Science Department, UC Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697-3100
Tel : (1 949) 824 5838
Fax : (1 949) 824 3256
mprather@uci.edu

International Organization / Institution
IIASA
Zbigniew KLIMONT
Schlossplatz 1
A-2361 Laxenburg
Austria
Tel : (43 2236) 807 547
Fax : (43 2236) 807 533
klimont@iiasa.ac.at

Asian Institute of Technology
Nguyen THI KIM OANH
Klongluang, Pathumthani 12120
ThailandTel : (66 2) 524 5641
Fax : (66 2) 524 5625
kimoanh@ait.ac.th
European Commission - Joint ResearchCentreJohn VAN AARDENNE
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Climate Change Unit TP280
I-21020, Ispra (Va)
Italy
Tel : (39) 0332 785833
Fax : (39) 0332 785707
john.van-aardenne@jrc.it

IPCC Secretariat
Renate CHRISTC/O World Meteorological Organization
7bis Avenue de la Paix
C.P. 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2
Switzerland
Tel : (41 22) 730 8208/84
Fax : (41 22) 730 8025/13
rchrist@wmo.int

30

IPCC NGGIP TSU
Simon EGGLESTON
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama
Kanagawa, 240-0115
Japan
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
eggleston@iges.or.jp
Leandro BUENDIA
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama
Kanagawa, 240-0115
Japan
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
lbuendia@iges.or.jp
Kiyoto TANABE
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama
Kanagawa, 240-0115
Japan
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
tanabe@iges.or.jp
Kyoko MIWA
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama
Kanagawa, 240-0115
Japan
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
miwa@iges.or.jp
Ayako HONGO
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama
Kanagawa, 240-0115
Japan
Tel : (81 46) 855 3750
Fax : (81 46) 855 3808
hongo@iges.or.jp

31Annex 6 Group Members
Group
Fuel Use

Industrial & OtherEmissions

Land Use

Name
Prof Jamidu Katima
Mr Zbigniew Klimont
Dr Tami Bond
Ms Lisa Graham
Ms Dina Kruger
Mrs Jana Matejovicova
Prof Xavier Querol
Dr John van Aardenne
Mr Maarten Van Het Bolscher
Dr Simon Eggleston
Ms Kyoko Miwa

Country/
Organization
Tanazania
IIASA
US
CanadaUS
Slovakia
Spain
JRC
Netherlands
TSU
TSU

Dr Jochen HarnischDr Kristin Rypdal
Mr Taka Hiraishi
Dr Carlos M. López Cabrera
Dr Brian T. Mader
Dr Anatoly Nikolayev
Mr Kiyoto Tanabe

Germany
Norway
Japan
Cuba
US
RussiaTSU

Chair
Rapporteur

Mr Joseph Katongo Kanyanga
Dr Paulo Artaxo
Mr Ben DeAngelo
Dr John Gras
Dr Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh
Dr Thelma Krug
Dr Hideaki Nakane
Prof Joyce Penner
Prof Michael Prather
Dr Ina Tegen
Dr Sabine Christiane Wurzler
Dr Xiaoye Zhang
Mr Leandro Buendia

ZambiaBrazilUS
Australia
AIT
BrazilJapan
US
US
Germany
Germany
China
TSU

Chair
Rapporteur

32

Chair
RapporteurAnnex 7 Key Note Presentations
Direct effects of aerosols on climate: What do we know?
Prof. Joyce Penner, University of Michigan, USA

Indirect Effects: Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics
Prof. Ulrike Lohmann, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland

EC/OC Emissions: Current Understanding & Relevant Issues
Dr. Zhang Xiaoye, Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services, China

Aerosol Coupling with Photochemistry of Greenhouse Gases
Professor Michael Prather, University of California, USA

Definitional Issues for Aerosols
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA

Soil Dust Emissions
Dr. Ina Tegen, Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany

Practical Experiences of Aerosol Inventory Preparation - European Perspective
Dr. Kristin Rypdal, CICERO & Dr Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA)

Aerosol Emission Measurements
Ms. Lisa Graham, Environment Canada

Global Estimates of Carbonaceous Aerosols using Bottom-Up Methods
Dr. Tami Bond, University of Illinois, USA

33