IEEJ：July ©IEEJ 2022
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (594)July 21, 2022

2021 World Energy Situation Indicated by BP Statistics
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanOn June 28, international oil company BP PLC released its “BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2022.” As noted in 10 past editions of this report, the BP statistics are one of the world’s mostrepresentative annual energy supply and demand statistics. Energy stakeholders in the world refer tothe BP statistics known for comprehensive coverage of the latest data. In the following, I would liketo review the 2021 international energy situation based on the data.
First, the most important point of the 2021 international energy situation is that the world
recovered from the unprecedentedly huge adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that rattled theworld, leading to dramatic international energy situation changes including demand expansion. In
2021, global primary energy consumption increased by 5.8% from the previous year to 595.2 exajoules(EJ). After posting a 4.2% plunge due to global economic contraction and lockdowns implemented toprevent COVID-19 infections in 2020, global primary energy consumption rebounded from thedecline and expanded rapidly in response to economic recovery and the lifting of travel restrictions.
The increase of 5.8%, though including a reaction to the plunge in the previous year, was the largest
in the 21st century. The increase led global primary energy consumption to expand by 1.3% from 587.4
EJ in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, international energy markets broke away fromthe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and came back to a growth path.
Second, both developed countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment and developing and emerging, or non-OECD, countries scored robust growth in primaryenergy consumption, but non-OECD consumption increased remarkably in a manner to drive global
growth. Non-OECD primary energy consumption in 2021 posted a sharp increase of 6.5% from theprevious year to 365.3 EJ, accounting for about 70% of the global growth at 31.1 EJ. In particular,
China and India boosted energy consumption remarkably. Growth from the previous year came to 10.1
EJ or 7.1% for China and 3.2 EJ or 10.4% for India. The two countries alone accounted for more than
40% of global growth. On the other hand, OECD primary energy consumption in 2021 increased by
4.7% from the previous year to 229.9 EJ. The COVID-19 pandemic exerted great impacts on theOECD group of developed countries, which posted an unprecedented decline of 7.5% in energy
consumption in 2020 before the sharp recovery in 2021. Non-OECD countries accounted for 61% ofglobal primary energy consumption in 2021, against 39% for OECD countries, indicating that thegravity center of global energy consumption shifted further to the non-OECD world including Asiancountries.
Third, global energy consumption by source in 2021 showed that fossil fuel consumption
including oil, natural gas and coal recovered from a substantial decrease in the previous year, scoringrobust year-on-year growth. Consumption in 2021 rose by 6.1% for oil, by 5.3% for natural gas andby 6.3% for coal. Oil and coal consumption, which captures the first and second largest shares ofglobal energy consumption, scored larger increases than the overall primary energy consumption rise1

IEEJ：July ©IEEJ 2022of 5.8%. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on oil and coal in 2020 were enormous,contributing to the oil and coal consumption growth in 2021. OECD oil consumption in 2021 posted
a 6.5% increase, faster than a 5.7% rise in non-OECD consumption. This is because the decline inOECD consumption in 2020 was as sharp as 12.9%. In fact, OECD oil consumption in 2021, though
increasing by 6.5% to 83.6 EJ, fell far short of restoring the 2019 level of 90.2 EJ. OECD oilconsumption recovery was still halfway. Among non-fossil energy sources, renewable energy
continued consumption growth even under the pandemic in 2020 and posted a steep consumption
increase of 15.0% in 2021. Nuclear energy consumption registered a 3.8% increase, driven by growthin non-OECD countries such as China. As fossil energy consumption was robust in 2021, fossil energy
sources’ share of global energy consumption rose slightly from the previous year to 82%. Over thelong term, however, the fossil energy share has continued a moderate downtrend.
Fourth, the abovementioned energy supply and demand changes brought about dramaticchanges in global energy-related CO2 emissions and international energy prices in 2021. Global CO2emissions in 2021 increased by 5.9% from the previous year to 33.88 billion tons. The growth waslarger than the primary energy consumption increase of 5.8% under the influence of the sharp fossil
energy consumption growth. After recording the sharpest decline in a half century, CO2 emissions
showed a reactionary increase in 2021, almost restoring the 2019 level. In 2020, CO2 emissions
decreased by 6.2%. If CO2 emissions continue to fall at this pace over three decades, they may decline
by more than 80%. The resumption of CO2 emission growth in the course of economic recovery fromthe COVID-19 disaster indicates how difficult it would be to sustain substantial CO2 emission cuts
over a long term. After energy oversupply and weak energy prices under the disaster in 2020, theenergy supply-demand balance tightened in 2021, leading energy prices in international markets toshoot up. The average key futures price for Brent crude oil in 2021 came to $70.91 per barrel, up
nearly $30/bbl from $41.84/bbl in 2020. In the second half of 2021, particularly, the price topped$80/bbl and rose close to $100/bbl. Natural gas and LNG also posted remarkable price hikes. The
Dutch Title Transfer Facility price, or the European benchmark for natural gas, averaged $16.02 per
million British thermal units in 2021, skyrocketing more than five-fold from $3.07/MMBtu in theprevious year. The average Asian LNG spot price shot up to $18.60/MMbtu from $4.97/MMBtu. Coalprices also soared sharply. The electricity supply-demand balance tightened in a manner to push up
electricity prices in Europe and China, attracting global attention.
Fifth, the Ukraine crisis started in 2021, accelerating the abovementioned energy price hikes.
Its full-blown impacts on international energy markets emerged in 2022, leading energy
interdependence between Europe and Russia to become a major factor to rattle international energymarkets. The following summarizes energy relations between Europe and Russia in 2021. Oilconsumption in Europe (including the European Union as well as the United Kingdom, Turkey andother non-EU countries) totaled 13.53 million barrel per day. Given local production at 3.42 million
bpd, Europe depended on imports for 75% of its oil supply. Europe’s rate of dependence on imports
was also as high as 63% for natural gas and 42% for coal. Particularly, its rates of dependence on
imports for oil and natural gas, the first and second largest energy sources, were extremely high. The
Russian share of total European imports in 2021 fell slightly from 2020 to 32% for oil, 54% for gas(pipeline gas and LNG combined) and 48% for coal. Russia was Europe’s largest energy import source.
At the same time, Europe was Russia’s largest energy export destination with the share of export toEurope in total Russian export at 53 % for oil, 76% for gas and 35% for coal. Russian exports’ shareof global supply came to 12% for oil (the highest in the world), 24% for gas (the highest) and 18% forcoal (the third highest). Russia was the world’s largest fossil fuel exporter. The deep energy
interdependence between Europe and Russia along with Russia’s great presence in internationalenergy markets have become key background factors behind the seriousness of the Ukraine crisis.
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