IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy andd climatelichangehtowards
d COP21
6 October 2015
Takashi Hattori
Head of Environment & Climate Change Unit, IEA© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

IEA, energy, and climate change The IEA
IEA’ss 4 “E”sEs• Energy security• Economic growth• Environmental sustainability• Engagement worldwide

 Energy production and use accounts for two‐thirdsof global greenhouse‐gas emissions
 Energy sector must cut emissions, while powering
economic growth, boosting energy security &increasing energy access© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Towards COP21
 A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast
approaching – COP21 in Paris in December 2015
 Momentum is building:• Historic US‐China joint announcements• Developed & developing countries are putting forward newpledges to reduce emissions• Manyy energy
gy companies
p& investors are startingg to engage
g g• Pope Francis’ encyclical LAUDATO SI’

Source: Brookings InstituteSource: US Embassy

Source: Business & Climate Summit© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Timeline
COP20

ADP 2.8

ADP 2.9

ADP 2.10

ADP 2.11

COP21

Dec/14/F bFeb

June

31 Aug
A ‐ 4 Sep
S19 23 Oct
19‐23O t

30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec

MayDecJune

JulyAug

Sep

Oct

CCXG
Sept

ETP 2015
May

Complp Measures
Workshop

GHG Tradingg
Workshop22 June29‐30 Sept

WEO
Special Report

Nov

Dec

IEA
Ministerial
17 18 Nov
17‐18

WEO 2015
10 Nov

June

Briefs:
1. Resilience
2. Compl. Measures
Fall

Briefs:
1. Key Messages
2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Emissions burden moves over time
Cumulative energy‐relatedgy
CO2 emissions byy region
gGt 500
400
2015‐2040
300

1890‐2014
1890
2014

200
100

United EuropeanStates
Union

ChinaRussia

JapanIndia

Africa

Past emissions are important,important although the source of emissions
shifts with changes in the global economy© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

GtNational pledges build toward a globalagreement, but are not enough…

40
INDC Scenario
32450 Scenario

241681990

2000

2010

2020

2030

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

What does the energy sector
need from COP21?
 The IEA proposal for COP21:
1. Peak in emissions – set the conditions which will achieve
an early
l peakk in
i globall b l energy‐relatedl t d emissions
i i
2. Five‐year
yrevision – review contributions regularly,
gy, to test
the scope to lift the level of ambition
3 LLockk in
3.
i theth visioni i – translate
tl t theth establishedt bli h d climate
li t goall
into a collective long‐term emissions goal
4. Track the transition – establish a process for tracking
energy sector achievements© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

1. Peak in emissions:
IEA strategy to raise climate ambition
Gt C
CO2‐eqGlobal energy‐related GHG emissions

Savings by measure, 2030

40
INDC Scenario

35

Fossil‐fuelsubsidy reform
Upstream methane
reductions

10%

Energygy
efficiency

15%

Bridge Scenario

49%

30
Renewables
investment

2517%
9%
Reducing
inefficient coal

20
2000

2014

2020

2025

2030

Five measures – shown in a “Bridge
Bridge Scenario”
Scenario – achieve a peak in emissions
around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

2. Five‐year revision:
World’ss carbon budget is shrinking
WorldWorld’s remainingg carbon budgetgToday

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

A five‐year
five year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector
innovation; building ambition before the carbon budget is consumed© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

3. Lock in the vision:
What more does it take for 2 °C?
C?

80

2 00060

1 500401 000205002015

2020 2025

Capacity
Solar PVadditions2030 2035

2040

Capital costs
Solar PV(right axis)

MillionM

2 500

Dollars peer kWGW

100

20040015030010020050100

2015

2020 2025

Vehicle sales
Total combustion
Internal
Electric

2030 2035

Dollars perr kWh

Cost reductions & deployment ofelectric vehicles

Cost reductions & deployment ofsolar PV

2040

Battery costs
Electric vehicles(right axis)

An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector,
sectorstrengthening the case for RD&D investment & technology transfer© OECD/IEA 2015IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

4. Track the transition:Impact of pledges must be monitored

Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low‐carbon
low carbon transition;
IEA identifies key metrics to monitor energy sector achievements© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Other key elements
 Strengthen energy sector resilience toclimate impacts• Nexus
NForum,F
policyli bbrief/chapter,i f/ h t policyli &measures database Build partnerships to enhance globalimplementation• Engage nonnon‐member
member countries,countries implementing
agreements, etc.

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Timeline
COP20

ADP 2.8

ADP 2.9

ADP 2.10

ADP 2.11

COP21

Dec/14/F bFebJune

31 Aug
A ‐ 4 Sep
S

19 23 Oct
19‐23
O t

30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec

MayDecJune

JulyAug

Sep

Oct

CCXG
Sept

ETP 2015
May

Complp Measures
Workshop

GHG Tradingg
Workshop22 June29‐30 Sept

WEO
Special Report

Nov

Dec

IEA
Ministerial
17 18 Nov
17‐18

WEO 2015
10 Nov

June

Briefs:
1. Resilience
2. Compl. Measures
FallBriefs:
1. Key Messages2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

120 INDCs, 147 countries
Over 87% of energy related GHG

Submitted INDCs(1 October)

Submitted INDCs cover over 87% of energy‐related GHG emissions,with implications for future energy & emissions trends© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Analysis of INDCs
1. Goal type (absolute, BAU,single or multi‐year etc.)
2. Is the goal quantifiable?
3 Coverage (sectors
3.
(sectors, gases)
4. Intention to usei tinternationaltil markets
k t
5. Inventory methodologies
6. Accounting
approaches/assumptions
pp/p© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Japan: a closer look
 INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030
 UniqueU ichallenges:
h ll• limited resources• high energy prices• already high efficiency

 Nuclear post‐Fukushima

100%
Coal
80%
Oil
60%
LNG
40%
Nuclear20%
Renewables
0%
2010

2014

2030

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy, Climate Change & Environment 2014:UnlockingUoc g high‐emissiong e ss o assets
 Chapter on policies and actions to“unlock” existing high‐emissions
assets• Retirement of coal plant• Changeg dispatch
pof existingg powerpplantpfleet• Efficiency retrofit of coal plant• Retrofit
fi off coall plant
lforf CCS Examples
El ffrom C
Canada,d China,
ChiUK,UK US,
USEU© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Japan: a closer look
 INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030
 UniqueU ichallenges:h ll• limited resources• high energy prices• already high efficiency

 Nuclear post‐Fukushima

100%
Coal
80%
Oil
60%
LNG
40%
Nuclear20%
Renewables
0%
2010

2014

2030

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Nuclear power can play a role in
CO2 abatement & energy security
CO2 emissions avoided annually by nuclear power
1971‐2040

Share of energy demand met by domestic sources
and nuclear power in 2040

Gt 2.5

100%

2.0

80%

1.5

60%

1.0

40%

05
0.5

20%

1971 1980

2000

2020

2040

ChinaUnitedStatesEuropeanp
Union

pJapanNuclear
Indigenous production
Indigenous&production
nuclearKorea
Net imports© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Nuclear power issues
Retirements of nuclear power capacity
2000

2010 2013 2020

2030

2040

501971‐2040
1971‐2012
350 thousand tonnes
705100GW
G150200
European Union

EuropeanUnion

United States

Russia

38% of today’s
capacity to retireby 2040

United StatesJapan

China Japan

Canadaa
India

1990

Spent nuclear fuel1971‐2040: 705 thousand tonnes

Korea
OtherOthers

By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Timeline
COP20

ADP 2.8

ADP 2.9ADP 2.10

ADP 2.11

COP21

Dec/14/F bFeb

June

31 A
Aug ‐ 4 Sep
S

19 23 Oct
19‐23O t

30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec

MayDecJuneJulyAug

SepOct

CCXG
Sept

ETP 2015
MayComplp Measures
Workshop

GHG Tradingg
Workshop22 June29‐30 Sept

WEO
Special Report

Nov

Dec

IEA
Ministerial
17 18 Nov
17‐18

WEO 2015
10 Nov

June

Briefs:
1. Resilience
2. Compl. Measures
Fall

Briefs:
1. Key Messages
2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

COP21 Programme Two weeks: 30 Nov – 11 Dec
 Heads of State invited for opening 30 Nov
 Most Ministers will attend for second week High‐level segment likely Mon 7 – Wed 9 Lima‐Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) Theme Days
• e.g. resilience, transport, buildings, renewables,
energy efficiency, innovation© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Proposed IEA activities at COP21
 Key IEA‐led events:• Technical‐level IEA Day (3 Dec) – full day• High‐level IEA/ADB official side event (9 Dec)
• High‐level
Hi h l l publicbli event (10 Dec)
D )

 Executive Director activities:• Side event, high‐level bilaterals, speaking engagements

 IEA expert presentations and speaking engagements
 IEA stand with publications
 Activities and events in the Le Bourget Civil Society Space and cityof Paris Web: IEA COP21 webpage and social media (www.iea.org/COP21)© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Potential role of Japan at COP?
 Play a leading role in the negotiations as one of
the largest economies in the world, and a leader
in energy efficiency and low carbon technology
 Driving innovation and climate action globally Role in emerging Asian markets?

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Timeline after COP
ADP 2.10

ADP 2.11

COP2131 Aug
A ‐ 4 Sep
S19 23 O
19‐23Octt

30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec

Sep

Oct

CCXG
Sept

GHG Tradingg
Workshop

Nov

Dec

IEA
Ministerial
17 18 Nov
17‐18

2016

May

CCXG
March

ETP 2016May

29‐30 Sept

WEO 2015
10 Nov

SpringBriefs:
1. Resilience
2. Compl. Measures
Fall

ECCE 2016

Briefs:
1. Key Messages
2. Data
Pre‐COP© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy, Climate Change &Environment 2016

Preliminary topics: Tracking the progress of the INDCs and the2015 agreement
 Coal and climate
 Complementary approaches ini dindustry/business/b i
gy sector resilience to climate changeg
 Energy
 Electricity markets and climate policy Energy and emissions data
© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Complementary measures
TypeExampleslVoluntary partnerships between
businesses and government• Voluntary programs and agreements(e g UK Climate Change Agreements(e.g.
Agreements,Japanese Voluntary Action Plan)

Government actions to influence
state‐owned enterprises• Investments and direct control(e.g. Chinese power, France EDF)

Private sector business action• Unilateral actions, business coalitions,partnerships with NGOs (e.g. renewableenergy targets, supply chain, efficient
products, investor action)© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Complementary measures January Workshop• Country cases in energy efficiency programs, e.g. Japan June Workshop• Business/industry/ duse off complementarylmeasures• 70+ attendees from government, industry, research, andNGO communities
iti Information
fi sheeth/bbriefing
i fi Chapter in ECCE 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Discussion
 What is Japan
Japan’ss role at COP21?
 Whath mighti h Japan want out off COP21 anddthe Agreement?
Takashi Hattori
Takashi.HATTORI@iea.org
Head, Environment & Climate Change Unit
Sustainable Technology and Policy Directorate
International Energy Agency© OECD/IEA 2015

Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp