Mitigation opportunities in cities

Diana Urge-Vorsatz
Vice Chair,WGIII
NameRole

COP24
Katowice, December 8, 2018

© Ocean/Corbis

Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy,
Central European Universitytoday2035

A substantial share ofemission increase in thenext few decades will
come from cities

 Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions fromglobal energy use
 Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
 Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place indeveloping country cities This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity andresponsibility

A broad array of opportunities exist to keep urban
emissions at bay while maintaining or increasing
service levels
 Urban design and form
 Energy-efficient transport systems
 Encouraging non-motorized and public transport Efficient, small vehicles

 Energy efficient buildings
 low-energy architecture High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment
 High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)

 Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency
equipment using energy contributing to CC Hi eff cookstoves; electrification

 Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products – affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials
 Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy

 Carbon storage in construction materials
 Bio-based materials (timber, bamboo, straw, etc)
 CCU(S) Lifestyle, behavior, culture

Infrastructure and urban form are strongly
linked and lock‐in patterns of land use,transport and housing use, and behavior

Increasing and co-locating residential and employment
densities can lower emissionsHigher density
leads to lessemissions(i.a. shorterdistancestravelled).

Increasing urban density is a necessary but not sufficientcondition for lowering urban emissions

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, courtesy of Karen Seto

Increasing land use mix can significantly reduce emissions

Mix of land-use
reducesemissions.

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportTo lower urban emissions, need diverse urban land usemix

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportIncreasing connectivity can enable multiple modes of transport

Improved
infrastructuraldensity anddesign (e.g.
streets) reduces
emissions.

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportCo-location of activities reduces direct and indirect GHG
emissions

Accessibility topeople andplaces (jobs,housing,services,shopping)
reducesemissions.

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportBarcelona vs atlanta

11Urban planning
can make a verysignificant
difference inurban emissions

Source: UN 2014 as cited byFischedick, CFCC 201512

Mitigation opportunities through urban
planning:1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

increasing accessibility
increasing connectivity
increasing land use mix
increasing transit options
increasing and co-locating employment and residential
densities
6. increasing green infrastructure and other carbon sinks
7. Increasing white and light-colored surfacesopportunities from green
urban infrastructure

a locally appropriate
combination of green
space, ecosystem goods
and services and thebuilt environment canincrease the set of urban
mitigation andadaptation options

From E-On Energy Globe Award Hungary 2018

From E-On Energy Globe Award Hungary 2018Passsive houses spread around the world
Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHIWorld’s largest Passive House city district
Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt
116 ha, 1,700 flats
Passive House as Standard for urban development

www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.de

Source: Bai, X. et al. Six ResearchPriorities for Cities and Climate
Change. Nature, Mar 1, 2018.

Put into context: Urban infrastructure development
can consume app a third of our remaining carbon
budget to a 1.5C target?

Brock Commons Carbon Impact

Source:Naturallywood

Urban mobility
 The global transport system could reduce 4.7 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2030
 Significantly more than IAMs show This needs cities that enable:
 modal shifts
 avoided journeys (mobility services replacing real mobility, such as ebanking, teleworking, etc)
 incentives for uptake of improved fuel efficiency
 changes in urban design
 Encouraging walkable cities, non-motorized transport and shorter
commuter distances

Peak urban car use

The Lock-in Risk:
global heating and cooling final energy in
two scenarios
807046%60

Lock-in Effect 80%

EJ

5034%403020
1002005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Moderate Efficiency

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Deep Efficiency

Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Ksenia Petrichenko, Maja Staniec, Jiyong Eom,Energy use in buildings in a long-term perspective. Current Opinion in Environmental
Sustainability, Volume 5, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 141-151,

Source: Lucon and Urge-Vorsatz et al,
Chapter 9, IPCC AR5, WGIIILock-in risks related to key urban Mitigation Strategies

How mitigation options can go hand-inhand with development goals (cobenefits) Air quality improvement – indoor and outdoor Health – e.g. through indoor and outdoor air quality improvement,
reduced thermal stress, increased activity
 Energy security
 Efficiency increases access to energy services
 fuel poverty could be eliminated Better employment and economic opportunities through accessivity
 Reduced congestion Others: biodiversity conservation, water availability, food security,
income distribution, improved productivity, efficiency of the taxation
system, labour supply and employment, urban sprawl, and thesustainability of the growth of developing countries

SPM4|

Indicative linkages between mitigation andsustainable development using SDGs (thelinkages do not show costs and benefit)Total burden of disease from indoor
exposures in European countries
as DALY/million population with division to indoor and outdoor
sources in the 2010 building stock

Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls

Attributable burden of diseases due toindoor exposures in 2010 in EU26
The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction throughwell operated ventilation systems in high-efficiency buildings

Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls

Thank you for your attention

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
Vice Chair, WGIII, IPCC

www.ipcc.ch
Email: vorsatzd@ceu.edu