Countr y Report:
Brazilian Energy Sector2024
Jun 24rd

Alexandre Gouveia andBruno Nascimento

General Information

Federative Republic of Brazil
República Federativa do Brasil
CapitalBrasília

Largest citySão Paulo

Official
language

Portuguese

Government

Presidential republic

Legislature

National Congress:• Federal Senate• Chamber of Deputies

Area

8,515,767 km2

Coast7,637 km

General Information

EconomyCurrency

Brazilian real (BRL, R$)GDP$2.173 trillion (8th)GDP growth

3.0% (2022)
2.9% (2023)
2.2% (2024) - est

GDP per capita$11,352 (78th)

GDP by sectorServices: 58.91%
Industry: 20.7%
Agriculture: 6.81%

Salvador - BA

Rio de Janeiro - RJ

Chapada Diamantina National Park - BA

Natal - RN

2022

Population below
poverty line

24% on less than
$6.85/day2022

General Information
Age Pyramid – Brazil 2022
% MEN% WOMEN
AGESocialPopulation

203,080,756• Urban: 84.36%• Rural: 15.64%

Race•
••

HDI

0.760

Literacy rate

94.60%

School enrollment

99.40%

Access to electricity

99.5%

aged 15 and overaged 6 to 14

Mixed: 45,3%
White: 43,5%Black: 10,2%

General Information

Population density ofBrazil

SocialPopulation

203,080,756• Urban: 84.36%• Rural: 15.64%

Race••
•

HDI

0.760

Literacy rate

94.60%

School enrollment

99.40%

Access to electricity

99.5%

aged 15 and overaged 6 to 14

Mixed: 45,3%
White: 43,5%Black: 10,2%

The Brazilian Energy Sector

S E C TO R A L
POLICYNATIONAL CONGRESSPRESIDENCY (CC/SPPI)CNPE / CMSE / MME

R E G U L AT I O N ,SUPERVISION,A N D M E D I AT I O N
M A R K E T A N D SY S T E MO P E R AT I O NGGENERATIONPLANNING

T

TRANSMISSION

DDISTRIBUTION

CCOMMERCIALIZATIONPast energy demand and supply
Primary energy supply by energy source

Primary energy supply by source

400,000

400,000
350,000

350,000

Renewable but notsustainable

300,000

300,000

1970 - 79% fromrenewables sources

9%250,000

250,000

200,000
ktoe

200,000

2022

150,000

91%

2022 - 354.5 mtoe

Oil: 44%Natural gas: 14%
Sugar cane products: 13%
Hydraulic: 10%
Firewood: 8%
Solar + Wind: 3%2022 - 40% fromrenewables sources

1970 - 49.6 ktoe

Firewood: 64%
Oil: 16%
Sugar cane products: 7%Hydraulic: 7%
Natural gas: 3%
Coal: 2%150,000
100,000

18%

50,000100,000

050,000-50,000

0-100,000

PRODUCTION

IMPORTEXPORT

Oil

Natural Gas

CoalUranium

Other non-renewables

HidraulicFirewood

Sugar cane products

WindSolar

Other renewables

Past energy demand and supply

Final consumption by sector
300,000

2022
Industrial + Transportation
65%

250,000

ktoe

200,0001970
Industrial + Transportation
49%

Final consumption by energy source
300,000

Oil derivatives: ~ 40%
Eletricity: 5% to 19%
Firewood: 46% to 7%
Biodiesel: 0% to 2%
Ethyl alcohol: 0% to 6%Sugar cane bagasse: 5% to 10%

250,000

200,000

150,000

150,000

Around 75% of all goods
that are moved acrossBrazilian territory use
road transport

100,000

100,000

50,00050,00000Non-energy consumption

Energy sector

Residential

Natural gas

CoalFirewood

Sugar cane bagasse

Commercial

PublicAgriculture and livestock

Other primary sources

Biodiesel

Coke oven gas

Mineral coal coke

Transportation

Industrial

Non-identified consuption

Eletricity

Ethyl alcohol

Tar

Oil derivatives

Past energy demand and supply
Electricity generation by energy source
700,000

600,000

500,000

Solar generation increased from832 GWh in 2017 to 81.631 GWh in
2022 (3.521% increase)

GWh400,000

Wind generation increased from2.705 GWh in 2011 to 81.631 GWhin 2022 (2.918% increase)

Hydropower has been the leading Brazilian energy
source for electricity generation for several decades

300,000

200,000

The Brazilian hydroelectric potential is estimated at 172 GW

100,000

0Biofuels

CoalHydro

Natural gas

Nuclear

Oil

Other sources

Solar PVWasteWindPast energy demand and supply
CO2 emission by energy sector

CO2 emission by energy source

500500400

Mt CO2400300300In 2022 Oil represented 66%of CO2-e emmisions

200200and Transportation represented 53% of
CO2-e emmisions

10010000emissions from coalemissions from oilemissions from gas

Transportation
Residential
Commercial

Industry
Energy generation
PublicFuel generation
AgricultureOutlook of energy demand and supply
Primary energy supply by energy source

48% increase foroil from 2023

600,000

500,000

ktoe

400,000

300,000

87% increase fornatural gas from2023

200,000

100,000

0Black liquor

Firewood

Hydraulic

Natural Gas

Oil

Other non-renewable

Other renewable

Solar energy

Steam Coal

Sugar cane products

Uranium U3O8Wind energy

Outlook of energy demand and supply
Final energy consumption by sector

Final energy consumption by energy source
350,000

300,000

300,000

250,000

250,000

200,000

200,000

150,000

150,000

100,000

100,000

50,00050,00000

ktoe

350,000

Non-energy consumption

Energy sector

Residential

Commecial

Black liquor

Electricity

Ethanol

Firewood

Gasoline

PublicAgriculture and livestock

Transportation

Industrial

LPG

Mineral Diesel Oil

Natural Gas

Sugar cane products

OthersOutlook of energy demand and supply

Appendix - Energy prices: electricity• Wholesale prices• Regulated market price (average auctions winning bids)• The regulated market's wholesale price for electricity from new
powerplants averaged 46 USD per MWh over the last 2 years. Itreflects the costs associated with building and starting to operate
new power generation facilities.
• Free market price• In the free market, the wholesale price for electricity issignificantly lower at 26 USD per MWh, offering morecompetitive rates for those who are connected to highvoltage grids in the electric power market.

• Retail prices• The average retail price for electricity is 0.136 USD per
kilowatt-hour (kWh).
• A 200 kWh bill = 27,2 USD + taxes (33,5 USD)

Appendix - Energy investments: electricity

FROM
ANEEL INCEPTION(1997)
UNTIL 2023

80b USD

Generation

77b USD

Distribution

214b USD
8,3b USD per year

58b USD

Transmission

Appendix - Energy prices: oil
Residential, Commercial and Industrial Markets: LPG, diesel andfuel oils, natural gas and electricity (R$/boe)

Reduced Oil demand(boe)~ $ 316,00

O&G Companies becoming Energy Companies
Res. NG : ~ $ 277,00
Res. Electricity: ~ $ 266,00
Ind. Electricity: ~ $ 246,00
Diesel : ~ $ 188,00
Res. LPG : ~ $ 186,00
Ind. GN: ~ $ 101,00

Appendix - Energy investments: oil
Obligation to invest in R&DI
$900
$800
$700

2022 – 2023 – 2024
US$ 1.74 billion

million USD

$600
$500
$400
$300
$200

Investments will range from US$ 428 billion
to US$ 474 billion

$100
$0

• ~10% for green technologies anddecarbonization;• 262 projects.

Appendix - Energy investments: oilWind Offshore
CCUS

Cloud Lensing

Renewable Fuel

Thank you!
ascgouveia@aneel.gov.br
brunonascimento@isi-er.com.brCountr y Report:
Brazilian Energy Sector(items 4 and 5)

2024
Jun 24thAlexandre Gouveia

Energy policies and its difficulties
Current energy policy and measures

Major difficulties and bottlenecks

Paris Agreement goals (NDCs)

Carbon market not implemented

Brazil has committed to significant emissions
reduction targets under the Paris Agreement,
but it has been falling short of these goals.
From 2005 to 2022, Brazil’s Energy Sector
CO2 emissions have increased by 30%. The
target set for 2030 is a 43% reduction
compared to 2005 levels.
Pessimistic
TargetOptimisticScenario
213 mtCO2
Scenario
2025: 433 mtCO2 181 mtCO2
388 mtCO2
2030: 468 mtCO2
348 mtCO2

groupspressureConsumers
behaviour
Fossil fuelInterested
dependencyof transportation
sector
Uncertainty
newtechnologies
Lack of ofpropercompetition
Intermittency
renewable
sourcesLackofnot
incentives
Consumers
remainingunder regulated
pricesNew
technologies
competitive
enoughEnergy policies and its difficulties
Current energy policy and measures

Major difficulties and bottlenecks

Paris Agreement goals (NDCs)
Electricity Subsidies - affordability

Subsidies are primarily directed towards mature andcompetitive technologies. A more effective approach would
be to either eliminate these subsidies or redirect the funds
towards emerging technologies that can provide essential
attributes to the sector, such as electrical and energy
security.
Potential areas for investment include pumped-storage
power plants, batteries, hydrogen technologies, and RDI.

Energy policies and its difficulties
Current energy policy and measures

Major difficulties and bottlenecks

Paris Agreement goals (NDCs)
Electricity Subsidies - affordability

groupspressureConsumers
behaviour
Fossil fuelInterested
dependencyof transportation
sector
Uncertainty
newtechnologies
Lack of ofpropercompetition
Intermittency
renewable
sources
Lackofnot
incentives
Consumers
remainingunder regulated
pricesNewtechnologies
competitive
enough

2022

2023

2024

Group HV < 500 kw• 170k end consumers• 12,9% of the country’sconsumption

2026

2028

Group LV – Residential and Rural• 75,2m end consumers• 40,1% of the country’s consumption

What I would like to learn in this program
JICA KCCP Energy Policy

How to design optimal policy incentives that align a energy competitivemarket with broader energy transition goals

How other countries have been making energy security viable in acontext of energy transition

In a context of a developing country, how energy sector could make a
low-carbon economy thrive without inflicting more financial burdens onconsumers.

Thank you!
ascgouveia@aneel.gov.brCountr y Report:
Brazilian Energy Sector2024
Jun 24rd

Bruno NascimentoCurrent energy policy and measure• Bill No. 725, of 2022: Regulates the inclusion of hydrogen as an energy
source in Brazil and establishes parameters to encourage the use ofsustainable hydrogen.
• Bill No. 2308, of 2023: Establishes the legal framework for low-carbonhydrogen; institutes incentives for the low-carbon hydrogen industry;creates the Low-Carbon Hydrogen Development Program.
• Initiatives toward renewable H2 implementation

Major difficulties and bottlenecks currently faced informulating energy policies• Stimulate the possibilities that the use of hydrogen allows for thedecarbonization of sectors such as: industry (petroleum refining,petrochemical, chemical, steel, etc.) and transport, among others.
• Design regulatory improvements related to quality, safety,
transportation infrastructure, storage, and supply, as well as toencourage and to promote the use of new technologies.
• Articulate initiatives with international institutions in hydrogen.

Subjects that you especially would like to learn in thisprogram• Learn how the Utilization Business Model for Renewable Hydrogen is being applied in Japan:
 Direct use of hydrogen (decarbonized steel, decarbonized chemicals, hydrogen-fuelled vessels); Utilization of hydrogen compounds (fuel ammonia, carbon recycling products);
 Hydrogen safety strategy (for the safe use of hydrogen).

• Expectation of your superior to this program:“SENAI's expectation is to learn about the best practices adopted by Japan andthe participating countries regarding the policies implemented to achieve a lowcarbon economy, as well as the various technologies that can enable net zero.
Additionally, from SENAI's perspective, it aims to present the promisingtechnologies currently being considered in Brazil that could assist othercountries lacking renewable energy resources. For example, Brazil has 700 GWof potential in offshore wind energy alone.”

Antonio Marcos de Medeiros
R&D Coordinator at ISI-ERThank you!
brunonascimento@isi-er.com.br