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World Energy Outlook 2019
IEEJ, Tokyo 25 December 2019
Mr. Keisuke Sadamori, Director for Energy Markets and Security Division

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Context• The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparities, between:- The calm in well-supplied oil markets versus deep geopolitical tensions and uncertainties- The need for rapid cuts in emissions, while these emissions reach historic highs- The promise of energy for all, while 850 million people remain without access to electricity• Cost reductions & digitalisation are boosting new technologies, but they still need a helping hand from policy• More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at the choices ahead• The World Energy Outlook does not forecast what will happen; it explores different possible futures:- What if the world continues on its current path, with no additional changes?
- What if we reflect today’s policy intentions and targets? This is the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)- What if we meet sustainable energy goals in full? This is the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

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Perspectives from energy history
Global energy demand1919

1974

1950

2000

2018

100%

50%

0%
Wood

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

NuclearModern renewables

The last century has witnessed multiple transitions to and from different fuels and technologies

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Perspectives from energy history
Global energy demand in the Stated Policies Scenario

1919

1974

1950

2000

2018

2040

14 300 Mtoe

1 500 Mtoe

Wood

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

NuclearModern renewables

The last century has witnessed multiple transitions to and from different fuels and technologies
The challenge today is one of scale: global energy use is ten times higher than in 1919…. and growing
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Shale can stay higher for longer
US shale oil production in theStated Policies Scenario
Million barrels
per day

20

Share of “OPEC plus Russia”
in global oil production
55%

1550%

1045%
52005

2019

2030

40%

2005

20192030

The dramatic growth of recent years in US shale is set to slow, but the resources are there to maintain highoutput for many years to come. This provides a strong counterweight to efforts to “manage oil markets”
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The 20-year switch
Change in global oil and electricity consumption, 2000 - 2018
Mtoe

1 200
1 000
800
600
400200
OilElectricity

When consumers needed more energy in the past, they traditionally turned to oil

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The 20-year switch
Change in global oil and electricity consumption in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018 - 2040
Mtoe

1 200
1 000
800
600
400200
OilElectricity

When consumers needed more energy in the past, they traditionally turned to oil
In the future, they turn first to electricity – even more so in the Sustainable Development Scenario
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Natural gas turns to Asia
Growth in gas demand and supply in selected Asian markets in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018-2040
bcm

400

OtherIndustry

300

Power

200

100

China

SoutheastAsia

India

Developing economies in Asia account for half of global growth in gas demand, with industrial consumers
taking the largest share
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Natural gas turns to Asia
Growth in gas demand and supply in selected Asian markets in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018-2040
bcm

400

Pipeline
LNG

300

Domestic

200

100

China

Southeast
Asia

India

Developing economies in Asia account for half of global growth in gas demand, with industrial consumers
taking the largest share , and this provides the spur for almost all the growth in gas trade, led by LNG
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Africa emerges as a key driver for global energy markets
Africa’s role in global energy growth, 2018-40

4Natural gas demandbcm

2Oil demand
mb/dBillion people

2040
2018
2023

400

Renewables generation
TWhTotal population by region

3 000

1.5

3300

1 500

12200

1 000

0.5

1100500

China India Africa

India Africa China Middle
EastChina Middle Africa India
EastAfrica
Case

China India Africa EuropeanUnion

With rapidly rising population and a major switch away from the traditional use of biomass, Africa
emerges as a major source of global growth for oil, natural gas and renewables
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New solar PV projects are taking off

GW

Global power capacity by source in the Stated Policies Scenario
Solar PV

3 000

Gas
Coal
WindHydro

2 000

1 000
Nuclear

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

The power mix is being re-shaped by the rise of renewables and natural gas. In 2040, renewables accountfor nearly half of total electricity generation.
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Electricity moves to the heart of modern energy security
Hour-to-hour adjustments required in power systems due to variability in demand, wind and solar
European Union

United States

ChinaIndia50%
2018
25%

2040

0%

-25%

-50%

Global needs for flexibility double to 2040, but today’s market designs may not bring sufficient investment
to deliver it, e.g. in power plants, networks, demand-side response and energy storage, including batteries
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Today’s coal plants leave a legacy that technology can address

Combinedheat andpower

Advanced

Annual CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants
Gigatonnes

Coal-fired capacity, existing and under construction:
2 250 GW

Subcritical

12
108
Existing andCCUS retrofits or under construction
repurposing

64

Early
retirements

22018

2030

2040

Sustainable Development
Scenario
2050

Investment in CCUS will be critical to ensure that the young coal fleet is compatible with climate targets, while
repurposing them to provide flexibility can reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions, and help integrate renewables
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IEEJ：December 2019 © IEEJ2019Today’s coal plants leave a legacy that technology can address

Combinedheat andAdvancedpowereconomies

Other
developing
economies

Advanced

Annual CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants
Gigatonnes

Coal-fired capacity, existing and under construction:
2 250 GW

Subcritical
Developing
economiesin Asia12
10
8
Existing andCCUS retrofits or under construction
repurposing

64

Early
retirements

22018

2030

2040

Sustainable Development
Scenario
2050

Investment in CCUS will be critical to ensure that the young coal fleet is compatible with climate targets, while
repurposing them to provide flexibility can reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions, and help integrate renewables
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No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals
Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source
Gt CO2Current Trends

40Stated Policies Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel switch, CCUS
and other
Sustainable Development Scenario

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach,and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation
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No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals
Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source
Gt CO2Current Trends

40Stated Policies Scenario

30

20102010

Industrial electric motors
Buildings
PowerLight industry
Cars & trucks
Heavy industry
Air conditioners
Aviation and shippingWind
Solar PV
Biofuels transport
Other renewables power
Other renewables end-uses
HydroNuclear
Fuel switch incl. hydrogenElectric vehicles
CCUS power
CCUS industry
Behavioural change
Resource efficiency

Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel switch, CCUS
and other

Sustainable Development Scenario

2020

2030

2040

2050

A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach,and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation
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Conclusions• Energy policies are adjusting to new pressures and imperatives, but the overall response is still far fromadequate to meet the energy security and environmental threats the world now faces• The oil & gas landscape is being profoundly reshaped by shale, ushering in a period of intensecompetition among suppliers & adding impetus to the rethink of company business models & strategies• Solar, wind, storage & digital technologies are transforming the electricity sector, but an inclusive anddeep transition also means tackling legacy issues from existing infrastructure• Energy is vital for Africa’s development, and Africa’s energy future is increasingly influential for global
trends as it undergoes the largest urbanisation the world has ever seen
• All have a part to play, but governments must take the lead in writing the next chapter in energy history
and steering us onto a more secure and sustainable course

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