AWCI Phase 2 Implementation Plan – country inputs compiled
March 2012
1. Bangladesh
1. Issues and Needs
At present the issues related to climate change, water cycle and water use have drawn tremendous
attention globally. It has become urgent for the most vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to study inmore details the weather forecast, climate change impacts on regional hydrology aiming to reduce theeconomic losses caused by natural hazards and to plan the adaption strategy to encounter climatechange impact more efficiently. This kind of study prevailing in our country at Meteorological Department
and Water Management Organizations is very weak and needs significant support for improvement.
1.1 Current Needs and Challenges
•
•
•

•
•
•
•
•

Improvement of Climate and Flood Modeling.
Currently Meghna does not use computational modeling to understand flood hazard.
Tools for impact modeling
Vulnerability and Risk assessment tools to various sectors:
Water resources (Flood, Drought, River Bank Erosion, Sea Level Rise, Depletion of Ground
Water, Hydropower, Trans-boundary and international coordination, Salinity Intrusion,
Cyclones; Shifting of snow residency, melting period and snow-line and their impact on
biodiversity)
Agriculture
CoastalAnalytical tools to describe the weather extremes and climate variability
Application of remotely sensed data in monitoring drought and floods
Decision support systems as risk management tools especially for the water and agricultural
sectors
Forecasts at different time scales (daily, ten-daily, monthly and seasonal) particularly for rainfall
Areas susceptible to flooding have changed and flood maps developed with past climate datalack enough precision to be useful for disaster management under current climate

1.2 Available Resources/Capability
a. Network of observing stations
1. 133 non-tidal and 14 tidal discharge measuring stations throughout the country
2. 293 non-tidal and 190 tidal water level measuring stations
3. 1256 groundwater level measuring stations
4. 6 Satellite Ground Stations for receiving weather satellite images by SPARSSO
5. Temperature, Rainfall, Radar images, Satellite images, Weather forecast, Marine forecast,Eclipse information are collected and maintained by Bangladesh Meteorological Department
6. More than 60 Automatic Rain-gauges
b. Modeling and monitoring system
1. Flood Forecasting Model: One dimensional fully hydrodynamic model (MIKE 11 HD)
incorporating all major rivers and floodplains. This is linked to a lumped conceptual rainfallrunoff model (MIKE 11 RR) which generates inflows from catchments within the country
2. Monitoring system for cloud & depression movements, precipitation estimation from cloud
temperature analysis
3. System for cyclone monitoring1

c. Human resource
1. Well trained personnel in climate, weather and flood forecasting
2. Expertise and linkages with national, regional and international funding organizations
3. In-house training programs for continuous capability building of personnel
d. Infrastructure for climate modeling
1. Cluster Computing system
2. Issues Related to the Climate System
Current Climate Trends in the Bangladesh
A. Temperature
In Bangladesh Winter (December to February) is cooler and drier with the average temperature ranging
oofrom a minimum of 7.2 to 12.8 C to a maximum of 23.9 to 31.1 C, Pre-monsoon (March to May) is hotwith an average maximum of 36.7°C which occasionally rises up to 40.6°C or more, Monsoon (June toearly October) is both hot and humid and Post-monsoon (late October to November) is observed with
gradual lowering of night-time minimum temperature. All climate models considered in different paststudies estimate a steady increase in temperature in Bangladesh like most other parts of the world asdepicted in the table given below. Somewhat more warming is estimated for winter than for summer in allcases where projected temperature would rise 1.0°C by 2030, 1.4°C by 2050 and 2.4°C by 2100 withrespect to the base year 1990.
Table 1: GCM estimates of temperature changes in Bangladesh
Year
2030
2050
2100

o

Temperature change ( C) mean (standard deviation)
AnnualDJF
1.0 (0.11)
1.1 (0.18)
1.4 (0.26)
1.6 (0.26)
2.4 (0.28)
2.7 (0.46)

JJA
0.8 (0.16)
1.1 (0.23)
1.9 (0.40)

B. Precipitation and Projected Rainfall
The mean annual rainfall in Bangladesh is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal
distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east andnorth-east. Monsoon brings heavy torrential rainfall throughout the season in Bangladesh. The key factor
regarding climate change impact in Bangladesh is what happens during the monsoon since more than
80% of annual precipitation that falls on Bangladesh comes during the monsoon period. Most of theclimate models estimated that precipitation will increase during the summer monsoon as shown in Table
2.
Table 2: GCM estimates of precipitation changes inYear
Baseline average
2030
2050
2100

Precipitation change (%) mean (standard deviation)
Annual
DJF
JJA
2278 mm
33.7 mm
1343.7 mm+3.8 (2.30)-1.2 (12.56)+4.7 (3.17)+5.6 (3.33)-1.7 (18.15)+6.8 (4.58)+9.7 (5.80)-3.0 (31.60)+11.8 (7.97)

The climate models also tend to show small decreases in the winter months of December throughFebruary. The increase is not statistically significant, and winter precipitation is just over 1% of annual
precipitation. However, with higher temperatures increasing evapotranspiration combined with a small
decrease in precipitation, dry winter conditions, even drought, are likely to be made worse. The estimation2

in previous studies shows a little change in winter precipitation and an increase in precipitation during themonsoon.
C. Flood
Flooding is a recurrent phenomenon each year in Bangladesh and has numerous adverse effects,
including loss of life through drowning, increased prevalence of disease, and destruction of property. The
effects of increased flooding resulting from climate change will be the greatest problem faced by
Bangladesh in the coming years. Both coastal flooding (from sea and river water), and inland flooding(river/rain water) are expected to increase. About 20% of the country is flooded every year, and in
extreme years, about 70% of the country can be inundated. This vulnerability to flooding is exacerbatedby the fact that Bangladesh is also a low-lying deltaic nation exposed to storm surges from the Bay of
Bengal. With regard to extremes at the upper end such as the 1988 and 1998 flooding events (Figure 1 &2), climatic variability (including events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation) as well as long term
climatic change could certainly be contributing factors causing increased glacier melt, increased
precipitation, sea level rise; and increased cyclone winds and precipitation.

Figure 1: Areal coverage of the 1998
flood

Figure 2: Open Water Extent Map on 23
July 2004

D. Drought
Under climate change drought could increase in Bangladesh though it’s a matter of uncertainty. Drought
is also a recurring problem in Bangladesh since 19 occurred between 1960 and 1991. The southwest andnorthwest regions of the country are most vulnerable to drought. Most of the climate models though do
not give a clear picture of drought change in Bangladesh, but a number of climate models estimate
decreased annual precipitation and reduced precipitation in winter indicates that the possibility ofincreased drought in future cannot be neglected.
E. River Bank Erosion
Land degradation in the upland areas, deforestation and landslides in the hilly areas contributes toincreased soil erosion and changes the river system which creates drainage congestion and makes3

navigation difficult during the dry season. River bank erosion has become a matter of great concern in
Bangladesh during the last few decades which annually consumes several thousand hectares offloodplain making thousands of people landless and homeless every year (Figure 3). A number of cities
and towns such as Chandpur, Rajshahi and Faridpur are threatened by river bank erosion.

Figure 3: River Bank Erosion Problem in Bangladesh
F. Sea Level Rise
Another critical variable that determines the vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts is themagnitude of sea level rise. There is no specific regional scenario for net sea level rise, in part because
the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta is still active and the morphology highly dynamic. Over the 1961
to 2003 period, the average rate of global mean sea level rise was estimated from tide gauge data to be-1
1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr , while the Bangladesh country study put the range at 30-100 cm by 2100, while the
IPCC Third Assessment gives a global average range with slightly lower values of 9 to 88 cm. Sea level
rise may have severe implications on livelihood and productivity of coastal area through inundation andsalinity. In any event the increases in mean sea level need to be viewed in conjunction with thediscussion on cyclones in the preceding section. Higher mean sea levels are likely to compound theenhanced storm surges expected to result from cyclones with higher intensity. Even in non cyclone
situations, higher mean sea levels are going to increase problems of coastal inundation and salinization in
the low lying deltaic coast.
G. More Frequent and Intensive Cyclones
Bangladesh currently has extreme vulnerability to cyclones, both on account of its somewhat uniquelocation and topography (that creates an inverted funnel effect), and because of the low (though growing)
capacity of its society and institutions to cope with such extreme events. Cyclones originate in the deep
Indian Ocean and track through the Bay of Bengal where the shallow waters contribute to huge tidal
surges when cyclones make landfall. Existing literature records storm surges in the range of 1.5 to 9
meters, and some sources even cite particular cyclones as having resulted in surges almost 15 m inheight. A partial listing of major cyclones and accompanying surge heights is given in Table 2. Given thatover two-thirds of the country is less than 5 m above sea-level and densely populated, storm surges
contribute to flooding and loss of life and livelihoods far beyond the coast. The intense precipitation thatusually accompanies the cyclone only adds to the damage through inland and riverine flooding. A cyclone‘SIDR’ named the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in 2007, and another named ‘AILA’ in 2009 left
thousands of people homeless, many infrastructures totally damaged and thousands of people
unemployed.

4

H. Trans-boundary and International Coordination
Bangladesh is the lower riparian of three major river systems, the Ganges-Padma, the BrahmaputraJamuna and the Meghna (GBM), and constitutes about 8 per cent of the combined catchment area. Over
92 per cent of the annual runoff generated in the GBM catchment areas flows through Bangladesh. But
Bangladesh, since its independence, has been watching with grave concern, the gradual reduction of thedry season flows of the Ganges, Teesta and many other trans-boundary rivers due to upstream
diversions across the borders. A diversion of up to 60% of the Ganges water over 25 yr has caused
reduction of water in surface water resources, increased dependence on ground water and destruction of
the breeding and raising grounds for 109 species of Gangetic fishes and other aquatic species andamphibians. By this time, when Bangladesh has been badly suffering from acute scarcity of water during
dry season due to cross-border upstream diversions, it has received alarming news of upstream country
proposed project for interlinking its rivers to resolve country’s water crisis within next 10 years. Under thisproject, it has been proposed to divert waters of the Manas and Sankosh, Dharla, Dudhkumar etc.-thetributaries of the Brahmaputra for transferring to West Bengal first and from there to Godavari-Krishna inSouth India. The effect of suchdiversion of water would be
disastrous for the river ecosystem of Bangladesh andneeds urgent attention for thedevelopment of an effective
river
basin
management
systemespecially in Meghna River
Basin. The aquatic environment
forliving organisms can be affectedandbioaccumulationofharmfulsubstances
in
the
water
dependent food chain can occur.
Avariation of inland surface water
quality is noticed due toseasonal variation of river flow.
At
present, there is no efficient
initiative of regional cooperationinterms of sustainable ecoefficient water infrastructures
have
been
found
betweenBangladesh and India. But still
there
exist some water sharing andwater
withdrawing
infrastructures
(e.g.
The
Farakka Barrage).

I. Salinity Intrusion

Figure 4: Major Diversion Route of Proposed Indian River
Link ProjectIn addition to the altered hydrology due to climate change and withdrawal of water in Indian part, sea level
rise will also have adverse impacts on the world largest mangrove forest, directly through enhanced
inundation and indirectly by enhancing saline intrusion in river systems. The reduction in freshwater flows
becomes deteriorated with time and the lowest water levels are observed in March. As a response to
reduced flow regime the salinity front might penetrate inland both inside the forest areas and in the entire
south-western areas of the country (Figure 5). Similar ingress of salinity is also expected on the Indianside of the Sundarbans.

5Figure 5: Salinity ingress in the Sundarbans under 23 cm sea level rise
J. Seasonal Climate Pattern
There are six seasons in Bangladesh, which are disappearing due to impact of climate change. Summer& rainy seasons are becoming prolonged, whereas winter season is becoming shortened.

Bangladesh Side Collaborator
1. Project PI:
Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
2. Project Coordinator
Md. Ashfakul Islam, Engineer Adviser, Ministry of Defense
2. Research Assistants:
Md. Shahabul Alam, Research Assistant, BUET, Dhaka

62. Bhutan
1. 0
Climate change scenarios, impacts, vulnerability
1.1 Climate patterns and climate variability
The country may be broadly divided into three geographic areas and corresponding climatic zones: thesouthern foothills, inner Himalayas and higher Himalayas. The climate is hot and humid in the southernfoothills, with temperatures ranging from 15 to 30oC throughout the year and precipitation between 2,500
and 5,550 mm. The inner Himalayas, which rise to 3,000 m, constitute, with their broad valleys, theeconomic and cultural heartland of the Kingdom. The inner Himalayas are characterised by a cooltemperate climate with annual average precipitation of 1,000 mm. The higher Himalayas constitute thenorthernmost and highest mountain ranges with elevations up to 7,550 m. These northern regions, underperpetual snow, are sparsely populated and have an alpine climate with average annual precipitation of
400 mm. Bhutan’s climate is determined by the summer southwest monsoon from the Indian Ocean (lateJune through late September), and variations in topography and elevation. The monsoon accounts for
60% to 90% of the country’s total precipitation. There are substantial disparities in temperatures andprecipitations from one valley to another. The south-western and southern valleys are the warmest zones.
Below freezing temperatures in the winter occur in the central, west-central and northern mountains. The
southern valley of Bhutan receives the highest annual precipitation, while low precipitation occurs incentral and northern Bhutan. The monsoon precipitation of Bhutan occurs more or less in opposite phasewith that of India: when the monsoon is strong over Bhutan, it is weak over India and vice-versa (Quadir
et al., 2006).
1.3 Observed climatic trends in Bhutan
Temperature and precipitation data for the 14-20 years are available and so the period is considered too
short for any meaningful analysis. However, an attempt has been made to look at trends with theavailable data. The Department of Energy is responsible for meteorological and hydrological observations
and data measurement, as well as flood warning. Hydro-Met was established to support Bhutan’shydropower development. There are 84 meteorological stations throughout Bhutan. Most require manual
observations. Automatic weather stations with data loggers are operational in some areas and real time
data is collected for the purpose of weather forecasting.
1.4 Maximum temperature
The maximum temperature data from 18 stations were analyzed for trends. The stations selected
represent the altitudinal range. Fig. 1 chart shows the change of maximum temperature with data fromthe 18 stations. It is observed that there is an increase in the maximum temperature. The increase ishigher at higher altitudes. There is no increase at lower altitudes. In fact a cooling trend has been
observed. The trend from 18 stations with 14 years of data show an increase of 0.027°C.

Figure 1: The increase of mean maximum temperature at analyzed stations.

7

Figure 2: The temperature anomaly from the mean of 1996-2009.
Figure 2 shows the temperature anomaly from the mean of 1996-2009 and Figure 3 shows winter andsummer trends. Winter maximum temperature increases are more at higher altitudes. The range between
the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) is highest in Paro. Figure 4 shows maximum temperature increase.
The highest increase is in Haa for the period on record and decrease in Phuentsholing.

Figure 3: Winter and summer temperature trends.

8

Figure 4: Maximum temperature increase.
The table shows the trend for all the 18 stations.
Stations
Gelephu P/ling Deothang T/yangtse P/gatshel Sunkosh Mongar Chamkhar Simtokha-0.306 -0.252-0.078-0.019 -0.0173
0 0.025
0.027
0.034
Trend (°C)
Altitude (m)
375
220
300
1830
1618
410
1600
2740
2310
Stations
Thimphu
Sibsoo0.078
Trend (°C) 0.038
Altitude (m) 2380
550

Kanglung Zhemgang Punakha
Paro
0.085
0.092
0.125
0.143
1930
1905
1236
2406

Wangdue Damphu
Haa
0.169
0.188
0.209
1180
1520
2720

A study done by ICIMOD indicates that the eastern Himalayan region is an undergoing warming trend.
Annual mean temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.01°C/yr or more. There is a diagonal zone fromsouth west to north east regarding annual and seasonal temperatures. The warming in the winter(December, January and February) is higher, about 0.015°C/yr more than the annual trends The
temperature trends in the three elevation zones are provided in Table below. The analysis suggests that:i)the Eastern Himalayan region is experiencing widespread warming and the warming is generally
greater than 0.01°C/yr;ii)ii) the highest rates of warming are occurring in the winter December, January, February (DJF)
and the lowest or even cooling trends are observed in the summer (June, July and August; JJA)
season; andiii)iii) Warming increases progressively with elevation, with areas >4,000 m experiencing the highest
warming rates. The results suggest that seasonal temperature variability is increasing and thealtitudinal lapse rate in temperature is decreasing. Unlike temperature, precipitation does notdemonstrate any consistent trends.

9Temperature trends (oC/yr) by elevation zones
AnnualDJF
Level 1
0.01
0.03(< 1 km)Level 20.02
0.03
(1km-4km)
Level 30.04
0.06(>4 km)

MAM
0.00

JJA
-0.01

SON
0.02

0.02

-0.01

0.02

0.04

0.02

0.03

1.5 Climate change projections
The Hydro-Met Services Division of the Department of Energy is responsible for meteorological andhydrological observations and data measurement, as well as flood warning. Hydro-Met was established tosupport Bhutan’s hydropower development. There are 84 meteorological stations throughout Bhutan.
Most require manual observations. Automatic weather stations with data loggers have been not been
operated on a continued basis due to mechanical failures and maintenance issues. Three automatic
stations are located in Thimphu. There are 24 gauging stations that have measured water levels anddischarge, as well as sediment loads since 1987. Most meteorological and hydrological stations arelocated in inner and southern Bhutan. Thus data is not available for the higher mountains ranges. Given
Bhutan’s complex topography, the existing network of meteorological and hydrological stations does not
sufficiently reflect variations in temperatures, precipitations, and river flows across the country. Weather
forecast for Bhutan is therefore carried out by Hydro-Met staff with the assistance of an advisor
sponsored by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The Second National Communication willagain attempt to conduct climate change projections as part of a V&A assessment. However, with lessthan 15 years of local data available, modelling climate change in Bhutan will remain an arduous task.
Mountain regions are characterised by complex topography and rapid changes in temperature andprecipitation over short distances. There have been few attempts at modelling future climatic change
conditions in mountain areas because of the costly computing requirements for fine spatial resolution toaccurately reflect topography and climatic parameters (IPCC, 2007). Regional Circulation Models (RCM),
such as PRECIS, has a 50-km horizontal resolution and preferably run a 30-year simulation. Inner valley
projections over mountainous regions would require much higher resolution (Met Office, 2004). Bhutan
falls within IPCC’s South Asia sub-continental region which stretches to latitude 50°N. Averaged
temperature and precipitation changes are derived from a dataset of 21 global models. For the A1B
scenario6, the models show a median increase of 3.3°C by 2100, with increases in daily minimum andmaximum temperatures. The largest warming will take place at higher altitudes, for example over the
Himalayas, as surface albedo will decrease with the melting of snow and ice. A 5% decrease inprecipitation is projected in the dry season, and an 11% increase for the rest of the year. In summary, the
IPCC climate change projections to 2100 for the South Asia sub-continental region, including Bhutan,
consist of the following:-

Increase in average temperatures with relatively warmer weather at higher altitudes and during
the dry season;
Increase in average annual precipitation and with a higher relative increase in the wet season anda decrease in the dry season;
No conclusive indication of changes in climate variability and occurrence of extreme weather
events;Continued spatial variation in temperatures and precipitation due to complex local topography.

The IPCC A1B scenario shows balance across all sources, where ‘balanced’ is defined as not relying too
heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to allenergy supply and end use technologies.
1.6 Potential climate change impacts and vulnerability
The most important climate change impacts presented in Bhutan’s INC and NAPA are discussed in thissection, with supplementary information from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007).
Adaptation opportunities recommended in the INC consist of ‘no regret’ strategies that focus on10

increasing the ability of ecosystems and communities to cope with on-going environmental stresses andclimate variability
Table: Energy sector vulnerability to climate change
SectorVulnerabilities
Natural Hazard
Debris-covered glaciers forming huge moraine dam lakes that ultimately lead to& Infrastructure
GLOFs (i.e. flash floods and landslides, heavy siltation of the rivers, and othergeotechnical hazards). A GLOF will affect vital infrastructure:- Hydropower systems (generation plants, transmission and distribution
infrastructure) as the main export product
Water Resources(& Energy)

production/exports due to disruption of average flows for optimum hydropower
generation- Increased sedimentation of rivers, water reservoirs and distribution network,
affecting notably irrigation schemes’ productivity/ agricultural crop yields- Reduced ability of catchment areas to retain water/increased runoffs withenhanced soil erosion (deterioration of environment)

2.0 Manifestations
2.1 Glacier retreat
A study carried out by ICIMOD, UNEP and the Asia Pacific Network (APN) for Global Change Research
between 1999 and 2003 documented15,000 glaciers and 9000 glacial lakes in Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan
and selected basins in China and India (Mool. et al. 2005). These glaciers feed the major river systems in
the region and are considered lifelines for 10% of the world’s population. The glacier retreat rates in theseregions are shown in the table below:
Bhutan• Tarina Glacier retreat rate was 35 m per year from 1967 to 1988 (Ageta et. al. 2000);• Retreat rates as high as 26.6 m per year were reported for 103 debris free glaciers in
the Bhutan Himalaya over a period of 30 years from 1963 to 1993 (Karma et; al.,2003);• Jichu Dramo Glacier retreated by 12 m from 1998 to 1999 (Naito et. al., 2000);• The retreat rates are higher for glaciers in Bhutan Himalaya than in eastern Nepal(Karma et. al., 2003);• 8% shrinkage estimated using 66 glaciers in 30 years from 1963 to 1993 (Karma et.
al., 2003);• Luggye Glacier retreated by 68.5 m per year from 1967 to 1994; and• Raphstreng Glacier retreated on an average 35.5 m per year from 1957 to 1987, andrate increased to 60 m per year from 1998 to 1993.
(Yeshey Dorji, Specialist, DGM, MoEA)
2.2 Flow fluctuations
The Hydro-met Services Division under the Department of Energy operates and maintains a network ofriver gauging stations. The network is divided into principal and secondary stations. The principal stations
are equipped with cableways, current meters and staff gauges. Discharge measurements in secondary
stations are computed by the float method. In the Wangchu basin, gauging stations are operated in
Chukha, Tamchu, Paro, Thimphu and Haa. The average annual discharge data from these stations forthe period 1992-2009 have been analyzed as shown in Figure 5 below. The data from Paro shows yearlyfluctuation. A decreasing trend of 2.051 m3/s per year is noticed in the case of Paro and 0.295 m3/s per
year in the case of Thimphu. Even in Haa, there is a decreasing trend.

11Figure 5: Monthly trends of streamflow.
The Figure 6 below shows the monthly flow trends in the four stations. The summer months show
a decreasing trend indicating decrease in rainfall during these months. Winter flows in Paro, Haa
and Chukha show an increasing trend. The increase is highest in April and May, indicating moreglacial contribution.

Figure 6: Monthly trends in Punatsangchhu Basin.

3. Issues
3.1 GLOF
Climate change impacts in Bhutan are noticeable in the formation of glacial lakes due toaccelerated retreat of glaciers with increasing temperatures. The risk of GLOFs is increasing now
as water levels in various glacial lakes reach their thresholds. GLOFs pose a serious threats tolives, properties and infrastructure in downstream areas. The current level of disaster
preparedness in Bhutan may not be able adequate to deal with GLOFs apparently caused byclimate change.

123.2 Variation of flow over time and space
It is said that as a result of climate change induced glacial melt, about half a billion people in the
Himalayan region may be impacted. Millions of people in the plains of India and Bangladesh
depend on flows originating from the Himalayas. The glacier melt rate indicates a high probabilityof reduced low flows in the river systems. This may impact food production and thereby,
economic growth. Some of the most populated areas of the world may run out of water during thedry season if the current warming and glacial melt trends continue for several more decades(Barnet et al. 2005).
3.3 Decline in hydropower generation
The critical impacts on water resources in Bhutan would be on hydropower. The following are thelikely impacts:- Increased vulnerability to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs);- Increased sediment loads as a result of frequent and erratic heavy rainfall events;- Increased evaporation losses from reservoirs as a result of increased temperatures;
Increased run-off variability’s of glacier retreat;- Increased precipitation in monsoon and less precipitation in winter.
3.4 Reduced water source yields and deterioration in quality
The main impacts of climate change on water, sanitation and hygiene would be:- Possible drying up of stream sources. Water sources have already dried up in someareas;- Damages to water supply infrastructures and sanitation infrastructures due to flooding
caused by landslide dam bursts or GLOFs;- Water borne diseases caused by droughts and degradation in water quality in ponds andmarshes; and- Increase in cost of operation and cost of water treatment systems due to deterioration inquality.
3.5 Landslide Dam Bursts
There have been instances of slides blocking the path of a stream/river and creating a lake, which
after a while burst due to the increased pressure of the water on the impounding landslide dam.
The most recent was that of the Tsatichhu landslide dam in a district in eastern Bhutan. Suchoccurrences are likely to increase due to increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events.
3.6 Water induced health hazards
Climate change has a more subtle and sustained impacts on human health by affecting the threebasic elements of life which are air, water and food. Endemic morbidity and mortality due todiarrhoeal disease associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in east, South andSoutheast Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle (IPCC 2007a). Heavy rainfall
can lead to flooding which has the possibility of increasing incidences of water borne diseases.
3.7 Reduction in agricultural productivity
In recent years, the visible impacts on agricultural productivity probably due to the impacts ofclimate change have been the loss of arable lands mainly due to floods. Windstorm damages
have been frequent. The areas in the east and south of Bhutan are more vulnerable to increased
soil erosion as these receive more rains. Due to changing weather patterns, humidity andtemperature, there has been a dramatic rise in pest and diseases outbreaks in many crops.
4.0 Food, Water and Energy
4.1 Food
Various studies suggest that Bhutan has a low level of food security and the reasons can be
attributed as under:

13

-

-

The vast majority of the population is engaged in subsistence farming and animalhusbandry;
Between 25-50% of the population suffer from food insecurity;
Bhutan imports between 30-35% of the cereal needs;
There is potential for some regions such as the subtropical plains and the central
temperate highlands to become self sufficient in food, while it is difficult for people livingin the higher Himalayas of Bhutan;
Due to a rugged and unstable terrain, landslides due to monsoon rains and otherdisasters disrupt supply of both local and imported foods; andLoss in fertility of soils is a major concern and attempts are made to reverse this declining
trend.

4.2 Energy
The country is blessed with a huge hydropower potential and has so far developed about 1500
MW. Another 3000 MW is in various stages of construction. In terms of energy, the energy
security level is high.
- The country is self sufficient in electricity, but imports fossil fuel to power industries andvehicles;- Electricity is exported to India and the export will increase as more hydropower projects
come on line;- The country has a vast hydropower potential totaling to 30,000 MW;- The drive to provide electricity for all by 2013 has so far resulted in reaching electricity toabout 80% of the population. However, most rural areas still depend on biomass forcooking and heating;- The strict environmental laws ensures that forests are properly conserved; and- Wind and solar potentials are being explored.
4.3 Water
The water security level has been determined as moderate due to the following:- The main rivers have their origins in the Himalayan glaciers and subject to the impacts ofwarming temperatures;- The majority of the Bhutanese population live along these river valleys and are
dependent for irrigation and drinking water supplies;- The rural water supply initiatives have ensured that about 90% of the population haveaccess to safe drinking water supply, but these schemes are beset with maintenanceproblems; and- Cultivated lands are located on hill slopes, and construction and maintenance of irrigation
schemes are costly.
4.4 Food, energy and water interrelations
The positive food water, energy interrelations include the following:- Vast areas are still available to permit food , energy and water production; and- The cost of increasing food, water and energy security is low due to the small population.
The negative aspects of food, water and energy interrelations include:- Rapid melting of glaciers may result in less water being available for food and energy
production;- Dependence on monsoon rains will increase, and hence the uncertainty in the timing andquantities of these rains; and- Large areas may be lost as a result of hydropower development.

14

5. Contribution of GEOSS/AWCIThe National Action Plan of Bhutan was framed through a series of consultative meetings with theprimary purpose of recommending realistic, practical and far sighted measures and actions toadapt to the impacts of climate change. The key goals which are expected to guide the realizationof the action plan are given below with the objectives and activities. While the list given below has
numerous activities and from a country’s perspective has equal priority, prioritization may benecessary with regard to the contribution that can be requested from GEOSS.
Goal 1 – To improve understanding and increase awareness of the impacts of climatechange on water resources.
Objective 1.1 – Detailed water resources inventory
Activities:- Mapping and assessment of water sources for different uses;- Development of a database of water resources including availability, demand andchanges;- Monitoring of snow cover changes and glaciers to assess their contribution to river flows;
Objective 1.2 – Capacity building to improve knowledge on climate change impacts onwater resources.
Activities:- Creation of a platform to share research and data on climate change on water resourcesamong educational institutes and other organizations involved in climate change issues;- Development of a basis for quantifying and valuing the services provided by forests a asource of water;- Identification of gaps in human resources and devise means to address these gaps.
Goal 2 – To increase resilience to respond to the impacts of climate change on water
resources.
Objective 2.1 – Readiness to cope with water related disasters.
- Vulnerability assessment to design effective risk minimization measures;- Determination of minimum flows required for habitat survival in downstream reaches ofwater courses;- Installation of automated early warning system for floods originating from glacial lake
outbursts;- Revitalization of degraded catchment/watersheds;- Improve exchange of flood information across physical boundaries.
Objective 2.2 – Strengthening local communities in preparedness on the impacts ofclimate change.
- Awareness creation on water resource management at the local level;- Involvement of the communities in restoration of watersheds/catchments;- Incorporation of traditional knowledge and local perspectives in adapting to climatechange;- Inclusion in curriculum of educational institutes the preparedness aspects fo water
induced disasters;
Objective 2.3 – Design and implementation of projects.
- Water storage schemes for ensuring drinking water supply in both urban and rural areas;- Development of storage hydropower schemes;- Rain water harvesting system for small communities and households to capture and store
water during the monsoon season.

15

Goal 3 – Water Resources Management through adoption and implementation of IWRM
and eco-efficiency.
Objective 3.1 – Harmonization of functions of various stakeholders in the water sector.
- Creation of a national authority for coordination and management of water resources;- Promotion of integrated water resources management and use of river basin as theframework for planning;- Harmonization of policies and legislations dealing with water issues; and- Strengthen coordination among NGOs, CSOs and other agencies dealing with water
issues;Objective 3.2 – Eco-efficiency of effective water resources management.
- Ensure adequacy and safety of water supply systems through formulation of a watersafety plan;- Prevention of water loss in water conveyance systems through monitoring andmaintenance;- Improving on farm management to enhance productivity of water;- Promotion of the rational use of water for industrial purposes; and- Promotion of the use of water efficient fittings and fixtures.
Objective 3.3 – Enhancement of ecological management practices.
- Development and management of rules and regulations to protect watersheds andcatchment areas;- Implement the requirement of maintaining a buffer zone on the banks of rivers;- Encourage the spread of green belt to increase local resilience to sediment; and related
disasters, recharging of ground water and create aesthetic green landscapes.
Goal 4 – Mainstream Climate Change and Water Resources into national plans andprogrammes.
Objective 4.1 – Develop water and climate change mainstreaming tools and guidelines- Integrate existing and emerging knowledge on water and climate change into water
management plans;- Develop appropriate tools to address water and climate change issues at all levels;- Strengthen the capacity of local communities and increase their engagement potential in
implementing water and climate change adaptation activities; and- Plan for incremental adaptation actions together with improved climate change
projections.
6.0 Summary
While broad areas where GEOSS/AWCI can make a contribution have been detailed above, thefollowing are some of the activities that can be initiated under the auspices of GEOSS/AWCI as
early as possible:- Review of the adequacy of the existing hydro-meteorological network and dataprocessing processes;- Review of existing climate models and selection of appropriate modeling tools;- Introduction of modern methods of water conservation techniques and water use
efficiency; and- Capacity building in terms of hydro-meteorological modeling and analysis of climate data.

16

3. Cambodia
1. Issues
1.
Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues issue relevant to the country of Cambodia:-

changes in climate and consequences as: intensification of variability heavy rain and dry spells and some years influence
from cyclones
 frequency of extremes as flash in flood localized and drought the change of seasonal climate pattern precipitation, dry and wet, maxima globallyand locally-

Available capability/resources-

only center governments

Lack of capability

 Missing monitoring networks as data managements’ system and observing,
Modeling and inventory of water resources managements ( E.G they using modeling but the data
is not enough , missing net work, observation, therefore the data for analysis for water resources
also Hydrology and meteorology data networks)


Critical and issues in country:-2.

missing understanding project planning & management

Erosion (deforestations on the river catchment and,)Sea level rise (not information)
Temperature rise
Depletion of ground water more farmer using water for support for agriculture activities
due to lack water surface and also more hydropower have been developed in the
upstream that can be effected on downstream for ground water and more effected on
biodiversity
Hydropower more upstream have been constructed and ongoing that will affect thedownstream environment (river flow, biodiversity, sediment, nutrient)Trans-boundary and international coordination missing understanding between riparian
country for managements’ river basin (MRC)

Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A.

Issues related to Water Nexus in the country as:
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)a.
2.

Flooded and Drought

Each SBA affects water and environment

a. Water using for agriculture and industry as water supply fordomestic use
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in country

SBA
Agriculture: (JICA, ADB,MRC,JAXA, SAFE…)

Energy: ?
Urban: (JICA,MRC, ADB…..)

Ecosystem and Biodiversity:
Health

Infrastructure:

CC, Water, and Environment
water scarcity and surplus, crop
failures  quality of surface and groundwater (fertilizer, pesticide)hydropower
water quality, ground water depletion, increase ofmunicipal water demand, inefficient municipal water
management (low tariff, unplanned conjunctive),decrease of flood plains,change in flow pattern, water diversion
water bone diseases (dry and wet spells: Malaria,
Dengue, flood: Diarrhea)
design and management

17C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically in country:-

3.

We can address on seasonal variability at national and regional level
For the manage water resources way between upstream and downstream and among
different sector uses as hydropower, irrigation, water supply is not yet fully functions(understood from each other)
The data information is the right information to these different sectors to give them foranalysis and managements.
To adapt of the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water
hazards, the study is important and analysis training among of relevance agencies forthe structure designing
Each department or ministry they has own database they can share the data to thedifferent sectors beyond laboratories

Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues

Specify needs for country:
Observations:

Data Access

in-situ telemetric network also included the mountain areas
remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future
DEM, Land use currently height resolution
satellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)
global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)
remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future
DEM, Land use currently height resolution

ModelsManagement systems-

Forecasting
Water resources management model
Early Warning
Decision support
Climate Change Model for regional and to downscale National/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction
measures, adaptation strategies)
 community-based

Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences
Capacity building describe in other section (Part 2: Implementation Proposal)

4.

Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary

The activities and kind of activities/framework is needed for country with regards to each of the following points:We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.
We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies.
We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional
conferences/workshops.
We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

2. Implementation proposal
1.

Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:

Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your countryDemonstration design  infrastructure integrity
Introducing legislationhigh level coordination body among Ministry of Water Resources
and Meteorology, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, Ministry of Environment, andTonle Sap Authority research promotion to the decision makers to assign funding18

Improvement of awareness to both decision makers and local people  involvement ofprivate sector, farmer water use, and local people
Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy
and feasibility, benefits to other sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting withexisting inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality
Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences aholistic understanding and technology.

Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country
MonitoringunderstandingClimate change assessment including downscaling, bias correction, Process understandingof the current water cycle mechanisms detail assessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation ofregional knowledge

2.

Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators



Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

19Collaborators

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide----------Field
Research

University ofTokyo

Operation

MRC

Administration

Financial res.

University ofTokyo

Human res.

University of
Tokyo

MRC, Universityof Tokyo

MRC

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

Coordination among ministries: Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (MORAM),
Ministry of Environment (MoE), and Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fishery (MAFF).
3.

Specific request to GEOSS and to international community for the data/tools accessibility for country needed

free domain for keeping data and can access or download for free for each country
the data function is should be simplify as climate data the format can be excel, ASII……
file and also the time step is daily and for spatial (GIS) data as grid, shape file format,
and both Degree and UTM, WGS84
 Models and Tools analysis
 for analysis ,flood , drought , water resources, and river basin managements
 for prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – for stakesholder,farmer, and decisionmaker levels
Regional office and/or data center Regional and national data center is both together working is more reliable Regional analysis decision as data quality and standard checking database keeping for free domain access for sharing data with member thecountry.
 National collection, analysis, monitoring system observed data, storingdata base keeping






20

4.

Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- The existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:
We are cooperation within fully and free for regional and international levels an also included thefive items
•
•

•
•
•

5.

Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.
Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).
Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.
Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)
Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

Schedule

Apr. 2012 5th GEOSS AP Symposium: Preparation for Implementation Plan
Oct. 2012 4th AWCI Symposium: Approval of the 2nd stage implementation plan
2013-2015: Step 1 - demonstration project (feasible study) at each basin

1) Installation of water level recorder2) Simulation and prediction of flood inundation, storm  evacuation alarming3) Simulation and prediction of inundation and available water resources  information for
agricultural water use
4) Provide information (2) and 3) ) to local people by using mobile phone etc., in thedemonstration basin.
5) The items 1)-4) would be operated by the supports from the University of Tokyo
2016-2018: Step 2 - project implementation at national and/or regional scale

The items above would be operationally carried out by the Cambodian Ministry of Water
Resources and Meteorology.

21

4. India – by NIH
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues - identify which of the common issues are relevant to your country:
changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessment
intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclonesfrequency of extremes: flood (localized + social)and droughtseasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )Identify available capability/resources in your country – specify clearly
Identify lack of capability – specify clearly, including more details, which capability out of the following ones is
missing: monitoring, modeling, inventory of water resources, understanding planning & management
3

India receives annual precipitation of about 4000 km . The rainfall in India shows very high spatial
and temporal variability and paradox of the situation is that Mousinram near Cherrapunji, which
receives the highest rainfall in the world, also suffers from shortage of water during the non-rainyseason, almost every year. The total average annual flow per year for the Indian rivers is3.
estimated as 1953 km The total annual replenishable ground water resources are assessed as
3
432 km . The annual utilizable surface water and ground water resources of India are estimated33
as 690 km and 396 km per year, respectively. With rapid growing population and improving
living standards the pressure on our water resources is increasing and per capita availability ofwater resources is reducing day by day. Due to spatial and temporal variability in precipitation the
country faces the problem of flood and drought syndrome. Over exploitation of groundwater isleading to reduction of low flows in the rivers, declining of the groundwater resources, and salt
water intrusion in aquifers of the coastal areas. Over canal irrigation in some of the commandareas has resulted in waterlogging and salinity. The quality of surface and groundwater resources
is also deteriorating because of increasing pollutant loads from point and non-point sources. The
climate change is expected to affect precipitation and water availability. So far, the data collection,
processing, storage and dissemination have not received adequate attention. The efforts initiatedunder Hydrology Project Phase-I and the development of the Decision Support System proposed
under Hydrology Project Phase-II are expected to bridge some of the gaps between thedeveloped advanced technologies of water resources planning, designing and management andtheir field applications. The paper presents availability and demands of water resources in India
as well as describes the various issues and strategies for developing a holistic approach forsustainable development and management of the water resources of the country. It also
highlights integration of the blue and green flows and concepts of virtual water transfer forsustainable management of the water resources for meeting the demands of the present, withoutcompromising the needs of future generations.
Climate change is a human-induced stress (at least in part) that is generally not yet taken into0thaccount. An annual mean global warming of 0.4 to 0.8 C has been reported since the late 19
century. In India, the analysis of seasonal and annual air temperatures, using the data for 1881 to
0281997 has shown a warming trend of 0.57 C per hundred years . Substantial increases ingreenhouse gases are likely in the future as a consequence of which global mean surface
00
temperature is expected to increase by between 1.4 and 3 C for low emission scenarios and00
between 2.5 C and 5.8 C for high emission scenarios by 2100 with respect to 1990. Lal statesthat globally averaged precipitation is projected to increase, but at the regional scale bothincreases and decreases are projected. Global mean sea level is likely to rise by 0.14 to 0.80
meters from 1990 to 2100.
Under changed climatic scenarios a number of chain events, like melting of glaciers, sea levelrise, submergence of islands/coastal areas and deviant rainfall patterns, are likely to occur.
Likely impacts would include a greater annual variability in the monsoon’s precipitation levels,
leading to more intense floods and droughts. Thus, climate change in future is expected to have
implications on river flows in South Asia including India. Global climate change is likely to result insevere droughts and floods in India, with major impacts on human health and food supplies.

22

Developing countries of temperate and tropical Asia already are highly vulnerable to the extreme
climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones. Climate change and variability would
exacerbate these vulnerabilities. Annual and seasonal changes in climate would alter thefrequency and severity of major droughts. Changing temperature and evaporation rates would
alter soil moisture conditions and the amount of runoff from the catchments into reservoirs. There
are some evidences of increases in the intensity or frequency of some of these extreme eventsthon regional scales throughout the 20 century. The abnormalities generated due to climatechange are likely to trigger shifts in existing biodiversity patterns and demands for totally new setof land uses. The growing frequency and magnitude of extreme environmental events worldwide
has intensified research interest in natural disasters as well as regional vulnerability and response
capabilities.
Water resources assessment and planning assumes that the past records of variability arereflections of what will happen in the future. Climate change is likely to result in hydrologic
conditions and extremes of a nature that will be different than those for which the existing projects
were designed. The approaches for effectively dealing with climate change will have to bedifferent than those that have been employed to manage variability in the past. It is also likely thatthe variability due to climate change may be beyond the range for which current projects havebeen designed and are being operated. A review of current coping strategies of populations
already affected by climate variability is needed. The likely impacts of increased climate variability
and climate change on the water resources are required to be assessed. The coping strategies
need to be evolved considering major factors viz. social, economic, institutional etc. to reduce
vulnerability and enhance adaptation to climate related developments and events. Some part ofthe country facing the frequent drought are adopting the dry land farming practices to grow thecrops which require less amount of water. However, there is a need to take up such studies forassessment of available water resource for different agro-climatic regions of India and various
adaptation practices under the changing climatic scenarios.
Some recommendations to cope up with the problems in a systematic and a planned manner are:(i) a nation wide climate monitoring programme should be developed; (ii) while formulating new
projects that influence climate, it should be ensured that no action is taken which causes
irreversible harmful impact on the climate; (iii) improved methods for accounting of climate related
uncertainty should be developed and made part of decision making process; (iv) existing systems
should be examined to determine how they will perform under the climate situations that are likely
to arise; (v) water availability and demands in all regions, particularly in water scarce regions
should be reassessed in the new climate scenario; (vi) a re-examination of the water allocation
policies and operating rules should be taken up to see how these need to be updated to handle
extremes that are likely to arise; and (vii) there should be proper coordination amongst concernedorganizations so as to freely share technology and experience for capacity building.
Capability/Resources – The meteorological data is available for long duration in most of the river
basins. The runoff data is also available for major river basins in India.
Lack of capability – More intensive monitoring network is required for the alpine basins and thereis need for capacity building in the modeling techniques.
Describe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:
landslides / erosion
Sea level rise
Temperature riseGLOF
Depletion of ground water
Hydropower
Trans-boundary and international coordination (MRC)
Shifting snow residency, melting period, snow-linebiodiversity

23

Landslides / erosion: The problem of soil erosion is prevalent over about 53 % of the total landarea of India. Landslides are the other dominant cause of soil erosion and related problems in the
Himalayas.
Sea level rise: Length of coastline of India including the coastlines of Andaman and Nicobar
Islands in the Bay of Bengal and Lakshwadweep Islands in the Arabian Sea is 7517 km. The
published studies depict that the rate of Sea level rise in the Indian Ocean is much larger than the
global average.
Temperature rise  GLOF: The climatic change/variability in recent decades has madeconsiderable impacts on the glacier lifecycle in the Himalayan region. As a result, many big
glaciers melted rapidly, forming a large number of glacial lakes.
Depletion of ground water: Highly intensive development of ground water in certain areas in the
country has resulted in over exploitation leading to decline in the levels of groundwater and sea
water intrusion in coastal areas. There is a continuous growth in ‘dark’ and ‘overexploited’ areasin the country.
Hydropower: There are a large number of large and small size hydropower plants in India. During
the non-rainy season inflows for these plants are based on snow and glacier melt contributions
and base flows. Due to reduction in snow and melt contribution possibly due to climate change,
the inflow to the power plants are likely to get reduced and hydropower production may get
reduced.
Shifting snow residency, melting period, snow-line  biodiversity: In Himalayas there is upward
shift in snow line causing decrease in snow cover area and excessive built up of moist snow
cover on slopes. The moist snow cover on slopes melts faster.
2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment

Total annual requirement of water for various sectors of India has been estimated and its break
up is given Table 1.
93

Table 1. Annual water requirement for different uses (in km )Uses
Surface Water
Irrigation
Domestic
Industries
Power
Inland Navigation
Environment–
Ecology
Evaporation Losses
Total
Ground Water
Irrigation
Domestic

Year
1997-98

Year 2010
Low
High

%

Year 2025
Low
High

318
17
21
7

330
23
26
14
7
5

36
399
206
13

%

Year 2050
Low
High

%

339
24
26
15
7
5

48
3
4
2
1
1

325
30
47
25
10
10

366
36
47
26
10
10

43
5
6
3
1
1

375
48
57
50
15
20

463
65
57
56
15
20

39
6
5
5
1
2

42
447

42
458

6
65

50
497

50
545

6
65

76
641

76
752

6
64

213
19

218
19

31
2

236
25

245
26

29
3

253
42

344
46

29
4

24

Industries
Power
Total
Grand total
Total Water Use
Irrigation
Domestic
Industries
Power
Inland Navigation
Environment–
Ecology
Evaporation Losses
Total

9
2
230
629

11
4
247
694

11
4
252
710

1
1
35
100

20
6
287
784

20
7
298
843

2
1
35
100

24
13
332
973

24
14
428
1180

2
1
36
100

524
30
30
9
0
0

543
42
37
18
7
5

557
43
37
19
7
5

78
6
5
3
1
1

561
55
67
31
10
10

611
62
67
33
10
10

72
7
8
4
1
1

628
90
81
63
15
20

807
111
81
70
15
20

68
9
7
6
1
2

36
629

42
694

42
710

6
100

50
784

50
843

6
100

76
973

76
1180

7
100

With the increasing population as well as all round development in the country, the utilization ofwater has also been increasing at a fast pace. In 1951, the actual utilization of surface water was
about 20% and 10% in the case of ground water. The utilizable water in river basins is highly3
uneven. For example in the Brahmaputra basin, which contributes 629 billion m of surface water
3of the country’s total flow, only 24 billion m is utilizable.
Energy-irrigation nexus: Throughout South Asia, the ‘groundwater boom’ was fired during the1970’s and 90’s by government support to tubewells and subsidies to electricity supplied by stateowned electricity utilities to farmers. The invidious energy-irrigation nexus that emerged as aresult and wrecked the electricity utilities and encouraged waste of groundwater are widely
criticized. However, hidden in this nexus is a unique opportunity for groundwater managers to
influence the working of the colossal anarchy that is India’s groundwater socio-ecology. Even
while subsidizing electricity, many state governments have begun restricting power supply toagriculture to cut their losses. International Water Management Institute research has shown thatwith intelligent management of power supply to agriculture, energy-irrigation nexus can be
powerful tool for groundwater demand management in livelihood supporting socio-ecologies tocreate tradable poverty rights in groundwater. Some workable solutions for management ofgroundwater resources are mentioned below.
i.
Banning private wells is futile; crowd them out by improving public water supply.
ii.
Regulating final users is impossible; facilitate mediating agencies to emerge, andregulate them.
iii.
Pricing agricultural groundwater use is infeasible; instead, use energy pricing andsupply to manage agricultural groundwater draft.
iv.
No alternative to improved supply side management: better rain-water capture andrecharge, imported surface water in lieu of groundwater pumping.
v.
Grow the economy, take pressure off land, and formalize the water sector.
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBA
Agriculture:Energy:Urban:



Ecosystem and Biodiversity:
Health

Infrastructure:

CC, Water, and Environment
water scarcity and surplus, crop failures  quality of surface andground water (fertilizer, pesticide)hydropower
water quality, ground water depletion, increase of municipal water
demand, inefficient municipal water management (low tariff, unplanned
conjunctive), decrease of flood plains,change in flow pattern, water diversion
water bone diseases (dry and wet spells: Malaria, Dengue, flood:
Diarrhea)design and management

25

The irrigated area in the country was only 22.6 million hectare (M-ha) in 1950-51. Since the foodproduction was much below the requirement of the country, due attention was paid for expansionof irrigation. The ultimate irrigation potential of India has been estimated as 140 M-ha. Out of this,76 M-ha would come from surface water and 64 M-ha from ground water sources. The quantum
3of water used for irrigation by the last century was of the order of 300 km of surface water and33
128 km of ground water, total 428 km . The estimates indicate that by the year 2025, the water3
3
requirement for irrigation would be 561 km for low demand scenario and 611 km for high3
demand scenario. These requirements are likely to further increase to 628 km for low demand3
scenario and 807 km for high demand scenario by the year 2050.
Implementation of water pollution prevention strategies and restoration of ecological systems areintegral components of all development plans. To preserve our water and environment, we needto make systematic changes in the way we grow our food, manufacture the goods, and dispose of
the waste. In India, agriculture is the biggest user and polluter of water. If pollution by agriculture
is reduced, it would improve water quality and would also eliminate cost incurred for treatment ofdiseases. Like all other inputs, there is an optimal quantity of fertilizer for given conditions andexcess application does not improve the crop yield. Pricing of fertilizers and pesticides as well as
appropriate legislation to regulate their use will also go a long way in stopping indiscriminate use.
Industries need to carefully treat their waste discharges. Manufacturers may reduce waterpollution by reusing materials and chemicals and switching over to less toxic alternatives.
Industrial symbiosis, in which the unusable wastes from one product/firm become the input foranother, is an attractive solution. Also, there is a need to encourage reductions or replacement of
toxic chemicals, possibly through fiscal measures. Pollution taxes in the Netherlands, forexample, have helped the country slash discharges of heavy metals such as mercury and arsenic
into waterways by up to 99% between 1976 and the mid-1990s. Many countries discourage useof equipment, such as thermometers that contain mercury. Such measures in India would also be
helpful. For this purpose, society and individuals should have a greater knowledge and ability tobring about the required changes. Widely and readily available technical help about ‘how to do
this’ will accelerate the process.
The hydropower potential of India has been estimated at 84044 MW at 60% load factor. At thetime of independence (1947), the installed capacity of hydropower projects was 508 MW. By theend of 1998, the installed hydropower capacity was about 22000 MW. The status of hydropower
development in major basins is highly uneven. According to an estimate, India has plans todevelop 60,000 MW, additional hydropower by the twelfth five year plan. It includes 14,393 MW
during tenth five year plan (2002-2007); 20,000 MW during eleventh (2007-2012) and 26,000 MW
during twelfth (2012-2017) five year plans. A potential of the order of 10,000 MW is available fordevelopment of small hydropower projects in the Himalayan and sub-Himalayan regions of thecountry. Therefore, it is not only desirable but also a pressing need of time to draw a master planfor development of small, medium and large hydro-schemes for power generation.
Demand Management for Urban Areas and Industries is another strategy which could be adopted
to reduce demands in urban water supply or households and industries. However, before taking
such measures it is necessary to study the actual savings the measures will result in based onpractical data. Such information will help in planning curtailment of household demand during
drought periods. Similarly, another strategy is to go for demand reduction approaches in theindustry during periods of scarcity. Apart from ensuring leakage control, water technology toensure efficient use of cooling and process water and necessary pollution control mechanisms. A
sound water budgeting in industry can reduce the water demand to a considerable extent. The
water conservation and reuse strategies should be planned at the time of setting up of a new
industry so as to build in the conservation and reuse requirements from the beginning. Studies
are required to develop production functions relating industrial policies to (i) availability ofresource inputs like water, energy etc. (ii) technology of production, (iii) waste water discharge
constraint etc. for devising measures of reducing water demands in the industry.

26

An environmental flow is the water regime provided within a river, wetland or coastal zone tomaintain ecosystem and their benefits where there are competing water uses and where flows
are regulated. Environmental flows provide critical contributions to river health, economic
development and poverty alleviation. They ensure the continued availability of many benefits that
healthy river and groundwater systems bring to society. Environmental flows normally include theflow requirements in rivers and estuaries for maintenance of riverine ecology. Some people view
EF as wastage of water but clearly this is a narrow view.
Most Indian rivers have monsoon-driven hydrological regimes where 70 to 80% of the annual flow
occurs in 3 to 4 months. Such rivers fall into the category of highly variable flow regimes. The
total EFR for most of Indian rivers range between 20 to 27% of the renewable water resources.
But these EFR estimates may be considered as preliminary. These need verification throughdetailed, basin-specific assessments of the EFR. At the same time, it is important to appreciatethat EFR allocations of less then about 20% of the mean annual flow are likely to degrade any
river beyond the limits of possible re-habilitation. An additional factor, not yet considered in theassessment, is that a reduction in river flows decreases the ability of a river to cope with pollution
loads. These loads are known to be massive in many Indian basins. Unutilizable portion of
surface runoff in most Indian basins is adequate to meet the EFR. Only in a few basins, namely
Pennar, West flowing rivers in Kutch, Saurastra and Luni, Cauvery and east flowing rivers
between Pennar and Kanyakumari, the EFR exceeds the unutilizable runoff. In these basins, apart of the potentially utilizable water resources has to be earmarked for EFR. Sometimes, during
the period of water scarcity it may be difficult to meet out the EFR considering the importance ofthe demands from the other water sectors such as drinking water supply, irrigation, hydropower
etc. In such a situation, an optimum allocation policy may be evolved considering the potential
demands and available supply. Efforts must be made to restrict the pollution loads to the rivers
and other water bodies from the point and non-point sources of pollution in order to minimize the
EFR.
C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

The future rainfall scenarios can be generated from GCM output and an estimate of seasonal
availability of water can be assessed. In the Himalayan catchment the impact of global warmingon the river flows can be assessed and the seasonal variability can be determined.
-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

Most of the hydropower schemes on the upstream are run of the river schemes which require
temporary storage and the water is flows through the river. More storages may be created tocater the water supply and irrigation requirements.
-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

Once the projections of climatic variables are obtained they can be used in the determination of
impact on the river flows and change in the seasonality of the flow pattern. This can be given to
the hydropower companies to get sustainable water supply.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

Due to climate change extreme events floods and droughts are likely to get increased and there
is a need for evolving/ modifying the hydrological design criteria for hydraulic structures anddrought management indices.

27

To address the problems of droughts and floods triggered by extreme weather events, it isessential to both augment storage capacity and improve drainage systems. Effective
drainage is also essential to reclaim waterlogged and saline-alkali lands and to prevent thedegradation of fertile lands. Key areas are listed below:• Prioritizing watersheds vulnerable to flow changes and developing decision support systems tofacilitate quick and appropriate responses• Restoration of old water tanks• Developing models of urban storm water flows and estimating drainage capacities forstorm-water and for sewers based on the simulations• Strengthen links with forestation programmes and wetland conservation
Enhancing storage capacities in multipurpose hydro projects, and integration of drainage withirrigation infrastructure
The flow volumes under changing climate will indicate the requirement of changes in the designof structures and need for new drainage.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Specify needs for your country:
Observations:in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas)Data Accesssatellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)

The satellite data is available but the coupling with near real-time data is missing.
-global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)

The global data access is very much required for the ongoing studies and planning of adaptation
strategies.


ModelsAccess to state of art distributed models is required. This model may be used for the climatechange impact on the river flows and other hydrological variables.
Management systems
Forecasting

The forecasting of floods and droughts is required for most of the river basins in India. GLOF isanother major concern in the Himalayan region.
-

Early Warning

Early warning of cloudburst and extreme events will be beneficial for disaster management
authorities.


Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences

A common platform for exchange of ideas will be useful.
Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary
Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.
We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies.
We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional
conferences/workshops.
We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

28

We need training and capacity building in downscaling techniques and its coupling withthe distributed hydrologic model (s) for simulation and forecasting of hydrologic response.
2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:
Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your country
Demonstration design  infrastructure integrityIntroducing legislationhigh level coordination bodyresearch promotionImprovement of awarenessprivate
sector involvement

Under the forthcoming National Water Mission of Ministry of Water Resources, Govt. of India in
which NIH is also participating, the framework development is under evolution.
Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy and feasibility, benefits toother sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting with existing inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality

Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences a holistic understanding
and technology.

Strategic approach will be adopted in accordance with the R&D and capacity building activities of
AWCI and R&D activities of NIH as well as forthcoming National Water Mission of Ministry of
Water Resources, Govt. of India in which NIH is also participating.
Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country
changeassessment
includingdownscaling,
MonitoringunderstandingClimate
assessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation of regional knowledge

bias

correctiondetail

We would like to apply the downscaling and catchment modeling software/ models as well asother software to be developed by AWCI to the demonstration basin for simulation andforecasting of hydrological variables for IWRM.
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators


Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

The collaborators with approval/ consent will be engaged as and when these would be required.
Collaborators----------Field



Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

The water demand in most of the basins in India is already high and is growing. Available water
resources is generally fully allocated and often over exploited. In many locations increasing water
quality degradation is exacerbating water shortage problems. The projected changes in climate
could further decrease water streamflow and ground water recharge in the basin, while increasing
irrigation water demand and withdrawal due to higher temperatures and consequent higher ET
and evaporation from soil.

29

The main streaming strategy would be assessment of water availability, hydrologic design
practices, demands and allocation including optimal operation and reliability of water resources
projects under present and future conditions for IWRM as well adaptation strategies forsustainability of water resources management under climate change.
3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:

Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case

An inventory of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas using Remote Sensing technique. Thisshould be supported by sufficient numbers of ground truth verification.


Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function

The future scenarios from GCM/ RCM output for the Indian River basins will be helpful in the
climate impact assessment.
Data access and information exchange
Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purposeDistributed hydrological model for the purpose of impact studies is need of the time. Thismodel should have the capability of coupling with GCM outputs.


Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:•

Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.

NIH, Roorkee organizes about 15 Training Programs in a year for various organizations of
the country. It may coordinate with the AWCI and national organizations in organization oftraining and capacity building activities.
•

Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).

NIH, Roorkee organizes about 15 Training Programs including training programs forinternational practitioners in a year for various organizations of the country including forpractitioners. It may coordinate with the AWCI and national organizations in organization oftraining and capacity building activities.
•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills andmedium to long term supports to regional resource centers may be organized by NIH with thesupport of AWCI.
•Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)

Coordination with national and regional centers of excellence may be carried out by NIH.
•

Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

NIH, IITs and other R&D and academic institutions would be requested from time to time as
per requirement.

30

India – by IMD
1. Issues and NeedsthWater is the Elixir of Life. In the 21 century water crisis will be more vulnerable as in the coming
years due to the increasing demand of usable water. Scientists in their studies recommended that
there should be proper techniques to be developed for the water management and detail studies
has to be carried out to find the impact of climate change on water resources of the basins. There
are some studies which show increasing extreme events may be due to climate change. It has
become urgent need to look into on climate change impacts on water resources to plan theadaption strategy to encounter it more efficiently.
Water Availability in India
Area of The Country
Rainfall3287263 SQ. KMs
4000 KM³

Water requirement is increasing day by day in all the fields viz irrigation, domestic industry etc.. In
the year 2000, it was 629Cu Kms and it is expected to increased to850 Cu Kms and 1180Cu
Kms in the years 2025 and 2050 respectively.
2. Issues related climate system
2.1. Trend in Precipitation
There are four main seasons in India which are Winter (Jan-Feb), Pre-monsoon(Mar-May),South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sept) and Post-Monsoon (Oct-Dec). 74.2% of annual rainfall occurred
during monsoon season only and heavy rainfall events eventually occurred in this season. The
annual rainfall country as a whole is 1182.8 mm. The mean south-west monsoon rainfall (877.2mm) contributes 74.2 % of annual rainfall (1182.8 mm). Contribution of pre-monsoon rainfall andpost-monsoon rainfall in annual rainfall is mostly the same (11%). India is divided into 36
meteorologically homogenious Met sub divisions. In the following figure shows the rainfall trends
during the South-West Monsoon rainfall.

31

Also the seasonal rainfall trends for the other seasons are depicted in the following figure below:

2.2. Available Capability/Resources
There is a rapid development in context of NWP modeling and computing facility in IMD in the last
few years. Global as well Mesoscale NWP models are operational. But the models have a limited
capability in heavy rainfall forecasting. The heavy rainfall events which cause disaster like floods
are mainly under estimates and also there is a problem of dislocation of the system.
Challenges in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Flood Forecast• The forecast should be time and space specific.
• It should not be an underestimate otherwise there will be an avoidable loss of life andproperty.
• It should not be also an over estimate as same may result in unnecessary displacementof population resulting in diminishing confidence in forecasts and warnings.
2.3. Trends in cyclones
Cyclones generally occurred during Pre monsoon and post monsoon seasons in India. Data from
1890-1999 shows decreasing trends in cyclonic disturbances and also cyclonic storms.
2.4. Trends in Temperature
Analysis of data for the period 1901-2009 suggests that annual mean temperature for the country
as a whole has risen by 0.56°C over the period. It may be mentioned that annual mean
temperature has been generally above normal (normal based on period, 1961-1990) since 1990.

32

This warming is primarily due to rise in maximum temperature across the country, over larger
parts of the data set. However, since 1990, minimum temperature is steadily rising and rate of its
rise is slightly more than that of maximum temperature. Warming trend over globe of the order of
0.74°C has been reported by IPCC (2007) Spatial pattern of trends in the mean annual
temperature shows significant positive (increasing) trend over most parts of the country except
over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Bihar, where significant negative (decreasing) trends wereobserved. Season wise, maximum rise in mean temperature was observed during the Postmonsoon season (0.77°C) followed by winter season (0.70°C), Pre-monsoon season (0.64°C)
and Monsoon season (0.33°C). During the winter season, since 1991, rise in minimum
temperature is appreciably higher than that of maximum temperature over northern plains. Thismay be due to pollution leading to frequent occurrences of fog. Upper air temperatures haveshown an increasing trend in the lower troposphere and this trend is significant at 850 hPa level,
while decreasing trend (not significant) was observed in the upper troposphere. As thetemperature is rising, evaporation is also increasing.
2.5 Trans-boundary and international coordination (MRC)
India is having a very good relationship with the neighbouring countries. Bilateral MOU weresigned between the neighbouring countries for sharing of meteorological forecast and data. Also
there is a close coordination between meteorological communities of the neighbouring countries
in respect of knowledge sharing by conducting workshops/seminars, trainings, joint projects etc.
2.6 Project Basin
Seonath Basin may be taken as the project basin for AWCI Phase 2 Implementation Plan.

33

5. Indonesia
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues:
Changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessmentdifficulty in quantifying the correlation of climate change to hydrologic parameters
intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclones

 heavy rainfall: increment in non-uniformity, intensity, and frequency
 dry spell: data not available
 small tornado (puting beliung): increasing occurrence on land (where originally it
occurs on the sea).


frequency of extremes: flood (localized + social) and drought Increasing frequency and risk observed in flood prone area, eg Ciliwung River(Jakarta), Bengawan Solo River (Central Java) and Bandung Basin (Citarum
River, West Java). Scattered flood event occur in other area.
 drought: longer period in arid area and scattered extreme occurrence found inother areasseasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima)

 wet and dry season period are shifting difficulty in distinguishing the impacts of La Nina and El Nino from the impact ofclimate change--

Available capability/resources:

In the last five years, researches have been conducted by government research
institutions and universities to study the impact of climate change to water
resources management (flood disaster, agricultural and fresh water supply
management).



These research outputs will provide data and analysis of current climate change
issues in Indonesia regarding water resources problems, such as flood anddrought.

Lack of capability:

Monitoring Available only for strategic-major rivers (such as Citarum, Bengawan Solo,
Brantas, etc.) under River Authority (Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai)
 Difficulty for automatic monitoring due to social problem in maintaining
instrumentsModeling
 Limited access to the available computer modeling regarding climate change Limited resources to perform climate model.



Inventory of water resources Identifications of water resources issues in Indonesia have been done
thoroughly, yet the database available to support problem-solving study is very
limited.
 This limited database problem is related to lack of monitoring and prioritization tocreate a sufficient water resources database.



understanding planning & management
 Updated efforts in building code not yet available Lack of knowledge of decision maker in climate change34

Critical and specific issues:
Sea level rise-Temperature rise-Ground water level is mainly falling in big cities where there are more water
consumptions from housing and industrial activities which are taken from groundwater supply.

Trans-boundary and international coordination (MRC)-

Regional temperature is mainly rising in big cities where there are more activities
which trigger the greenhouse effect such as transportation usage and industrial
manufacture.

Depletion of ground water-Several big cities in Java Island have suffered seawater flooding due to the rising
sea level. Sea level in Semarang has risen 20 cm over the past 23 years, while in
Jakarta the rate of sea level rise is 0.57 mm/year.

The trans-boundary and international coordination activities regarding climatechange study is still in beginner level, which is still in need of improvement toadvance the study and understand the climate change impact better regionally.

Shifting snow residency, melting period, snow-lineThe snow-line in Jayawijaya mountain tops has been degrading due to the effect of
global warming. Until present, 90% of the snow volume has melted as it was
discovered that the original snow area which covers 20 km² has now degraded toonly 2 km².

2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Issues related to Water Nexus:

1. There are a total of 390,000 ha of irrigated paddy fields, with 240,000 ha served by the
Jatiluhur reservoir and canal system in the lower part of Citarum River Basin.
2. The combined effects of untreated domestic sewage, solid waste disposal and industrial
effluents have significantly increased pollution loads in the Citarum River system.
3. Villager activities in the upper watersheds are a major threat to both the quantity and qualityof water available to down-stream users.
B. On-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus:


SBA
Agriculture:

CC, Water, and Environment

water scarcity and surplus

 Citarum River (irrigation water supply) Bengawan Solo River (irrigation water supply)Energy:hydropower Citarum River (cascade dam: Saguling, Cirata, andJatiluhur) Cimanuk River (Jatigede multipurpose dam)Urban:

water quality, ground water depletion, increase of municipal water demand,
inefficient municipal water management (low tariff, unplanned conjunctive),decrease of flood plains Ciliwung River (flood disaster management, PROKASIH– improving water quality)
 Citarum River (flood disaster management)

Infrastructure:design and management

 Ciliwung River (river improvement)
 Citarum River (river improvement) Polder system (flood management) in Jakarta North
Coast
 East & West Flood Canal in Jakarta

35Big rivers which are potential for projects related to Water Nexus:

 Inside Java Island : Brantas River, Serayu River, Opak River Outside Java Island : Musi River, Mahakam River, Kapuas River
C. Respond to questions about water and climate change:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

 Socialize the information and updated related regulation through national board ofclimate change-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply? (incentive and disincentive, optimize water use in line with
its priority) An integrated water system development and management by using concept of
incentive and disincentive for optimizing water use based on its priority is needed sothat development in upstream area will not be disadvantageous to downstream areaand vice versa.
 Another crucial step is to identify each area’s potential and need for water resources.
For example an area which has big and steep river is potential for hydropower,
where an area with agriculture potential will need supply of irrigation water.
-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

 Information about climate change and water resources management can be given
through implementation of the updated building code, workshop and seminar for
related government institutions and universities. This is hoped to give better
understanding on the critical issues of climate change and water resourcesmanagement.
 Customized climate information is advised to relate to Indonesia’s country
characteristic and development plan.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

 The design criteria will have to have safety factor which ensure the capability ofaccommodating changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards.
 Further studies have to be conducted in order to adjust the design criteria withclimate change impact. Existing infrastructures have to be evaluated every period oftime to avoid failure caused by water hazards.
-

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

 Data sharing from research laboratories to related government institutions anduniversities will be visible through integrated online database. This database willcontain water resources data and study output from various institutions (government
and university) which can be accessed by all related sectors of water resourcesmanagement. Particularly universities have advantages because of its independency
and its human resources to maintain database.
 Database server maintenance and management can be organized by anindependent institution formed solely for this purpose.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues


Observations:in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas) automatic measurement of rainfall and river water level and velocity connected totelemetric observation station-

remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future

 to identify and assess land slide or flood risk in the upstream area as part of disastermitigation plan

Data Accesssatellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)36

global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)
integrated database

Models computer models of surface water flow and weather prediction to model observed areaand data to comprehend the decision support system
Management systems
Forecasting
Early Warning
Decision supportNational/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction measures, adaptation
strategies)community-based

Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences Annual or biannual workshop and seminar about climate change impact to water
resources management and development open for government officers, academic
personnel and researchers. Every event will have a specific theme related to current
issues and connected to the previous theme. Output and conclusions of the event will
be published and informed to the related government sectors and general public.
 Regular open discussion between government officers, academic personnel andresearchers to convey findings and critical issues identified by researches in order to beassessed by government policy and development plan.
Capacity building Capacity building needs and plan are presented in the implementation proposal (Part 2).
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level:We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the stakeholders
through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.

 Existing activity: Seminars and workshop held by HATHI (national hydraulic organization)
and PUSAIR (government research institution)
 Needed activity: Regular open discussion between government officers, academic
personnel and researchers

We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectorial body at professional- and/or policy making- levels by
involving academia and civil societies.

 Existing activity: researches related community development and empowerment in line towater resources research group with study case in Citarum River Basin.
 Needed activity: aspirations of academia and civil societies experienced in water resources
field have to be accommodate by making them part of policy making board in government.
This way the current needs and issues in public will be easily identified and assessed by
the government.


We need to implement
conferences/workshops.

demonstrations

andexchangegood(failure)practices

through

regional Existing activity: none Needed activity: demonstration on good and failure practices needs to be inserted inseminars and workshop to give knowledge to general publicWe need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge and technicalstandards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

 Existing activity: technical standards are accommodated in SNI (national standard forconstructing infrastructures) and other standards published by PU (general work
department).
 Needed activity: criterion to maintain data quality for rainfall, water level and river
velocity/discharge as well as the process of data filtering itself.

37

2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:
Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your country
Climate Variability

Climate Change

GlobalRegional
Local

Water Related Impacts

Drought

Flood

Other Impacts

Research

People AwarenessPrivate Sector
Involvement

Mitigation Plan

Local Level Policy

Implementation

Strategic approach

Some problems which might occur in policy development and application are:
1. Unreliable information caused by the lack of data concerning the relation of climate
information
2. Inappropriate strategy for climate change impact in Bandung Basin.
To cope with those problems, the proposed activities are:
1. The acquirement of technical data of Citarum River Basin, through direct field investigation(primary data) and improving the assessment through:- Calibration assessment based on field measurement- Improving climate change risk based on future scenario which will be developed
2. Dissemination of the updated information to the local community and decision maker that canbe used to improve the strategy to cope climate change impact.
Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country

The aim is to conduct evaluation of climate change impact based on future climate change
scenarios. Citarum River Basin is selected as target basin. This basin is one of the strategic
Basins in West Java. Citarum River flows from the mountainous area in Bandung, through thethree cascade dams: Saguling, Cirata, and Jatiluhur, before finally flows to Java Sea.

38

Climate change evaluation in a river basin needs good model and appropriate downscaling
method. Therefore sufficient observed data is important in model development related toverification process while the selection of downscaling method is important for detail assessment
regarding regional scale knowledge. Flowchart of technical approach can be seen in below figure.
In relation to mitigation against the possibility of extreme weather/climate related to climatechange, there are two essential conditions to be considered: 1) Flood, 2) Drought. For extreme
wet condtition analysis (floods), mathematical model can be developed to estimate flood
discharge in a relatively short time scale (daily to hourly) and varied spatial distribution
customized to the catchment area. To analyze drought and water conservation efforts, thedevelopment of long time scale modeling (annually to decade) is needed. The model is expected
to be able to predict long-term effects of climate change on water conservation efforts observed
from several aspects such as water availability, vegetation growth trends, and changes in landuse. Mathematical model with such characteristics can be found in Dynamic Global Vegetation
Model (DGVM).
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators


Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Collaborators----------Field
Research

Local

National

Regional

ITB (ResearchGroup on Water
Res, Atmospher
Sci,GIS, Financand Industrial
Math and Center
for Disaster
Mitigation)PJT II (Jatiluhur
Reservoir in
Citarum River)Tohoku, Kochi,
Tokyo Univ

Operation

BBWS Citarum,
NGO

BMKG, LAPAN,
BAKOSURTANAL,
Ministry of Public
Work,
Environment

Administration

ITB, DPSDA

National board of
Climate Change,
Public Works,
MInistry of Env.

AWCI

Financial res.

ITBDIKTI, RISTEK,NGOASAHI GlassFound., AWCIHuman res.

Local Gov andNGO

Ministry of Public
Work,
Environment

Tokyo, Hiroshima
Tohoku, Kochi

Worldwide

USAID, ADB-KWater

39

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

-

Strong basic environmental management in government agencies to improve decision
making process.
Develop plan for sustainable water and wastewater management
Knowledge for raising awareness of climate change mitigation and adaptation

3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:

Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case

Hydro-climatology data
Hydraulic structure
Operation and maintenance






Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function

Early warning
Risk assessmentData access and information exchange

Online based accessibilityModels and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purposeMitigation (structural and non structural)
Planning and evaluation (monitoring and long term river basin development
planning)
Operation (water supply-demand and reservoir system)
Management (water resources and water quality)







Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

Center for data base management for sharing and exchanging



4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country•••

awareness to adapt issue related water and climate information
knowledge improvement to analyze data and information
risk assessment and adaptation effort of climate change- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:•
Synchronize capacity development with national implementation program coordinated by the regional program•••

Data Base Development : need support for related atmospheric data, land usechange and instrumentation for ground observation
Risk assessment: need support for bias modeling and rain.

Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).

•••

Updating existing method of assessment for flood hydrograph and dependable
flow
Updating flood control (including ews) and drainage system
Capacity building of local people of the flood prone area to live with flood•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.

•

Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO center in Hanoi on WR)•

Developing risk map, evacuation map for local people of the flood prone area

40

•
•

ADPC, AWCI

Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

•

PROMISE Project, USAID for Jakarta City in collaboration with ADPC andJakarta Province.

41

6. Japan
7. Korea42

8. Lao PDR
1. Issues and Needs
1.

Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use

•
-

-

•
-

-

2.

Common issues relevant to Lao PDR:
Lao PDR has a typical monsoon climate with two distinct seasons: Rainy season from
May to October and Dry season from November to April. The southwest monsoon
prevails from mid May to early October, while the northeast monsoon dominates fromearly November to mid March. Generally, the average annual rainfall ranges between
1400 mm and 2500 mm and exceeds 3500 mm over the central and southwest region.
Except in the northern part of the country, temperatures remain high throughout the0year, with an average highest temperature range between 35-38 C and lowest
0
temperature of about 16-18 C. In the subtropical regions of the north, the temperature
range is much wider, cold air from China and Siberia occasionally penetrates during thedry season, lowering air temperature to near zero. The maximum temperature is 40°C
(March-April, over low land) and minimum temperature is 0°C (high land).
Lao PDR as one of the Least Developed Country, has very limited capability in copingwith implementing activities of AWCI. Even though there is a small National
Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS), a government Department under
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE), with small hydrometeorological monitoring network, it is still lack of capacities in various fields, such as
human resources with scientific or research skills, modeling development, climatechange assessment and adaptation as well as lack of understanding planning.
Critical and specific issues in Lao PDR:
Flood and drought are the main hazards in Lao PDR and both are dependent on theamount of rainfall. If the annual rainfall is less than 2000 mm, drought sensitive areas will
be affected. When more than 200 mm of rainfall accumulate in 2 days, certainly this willlead to floods along low-lying areas of the Mekong plain and tributaries. Tropical
cyclones are not direct hazard, since their force is normally diminished once they have
bestracked and reached Lao PDR from the South China Sea, but they can produce flood
as a consequence of heavy rainfall. Up to three or four cyclones hit the country annually,
while flood, drought and landslides occur irregularly. Flash floods are also huge
destructive disasters along rivers over high hills’ valleys and mountainous provinces.
Trans-boundary and regional coordination: Department of meteorology and Hydrology(DMH), as a line-agency of the Lao National Mekong Committee (LNMC), plays
important roles in Climate and Water data collection and sharing amongst member
countries namely Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Lao PDR, contributing to theimplementation of the Flood Mitigation and Management Programme (FMMP) andInformation and Knowledge Management Programme (IKMP) as well as the Drought
Mangement Programme (DMP). In this connection, Line-Agencies of LNMC including
DMH utilized relevant MRC’s developed Models in to local applications, such as flood
forecasting models, etc ….
Besides, Line-agencies of LNMC also play as key implementing organizations taking
actions of the MRC’s Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (CCAI).

Issues related to Water Nexus:
A. Introduction:
1. Water and Climate Change affect Socio-Benefit Area (SBA) :In Lao PDR water and climate change affect many sectors, but the most critical ones are
agriculture (including villagers) and hydro-power.
- The majority of Lao villagers are agricultural dependent farming. They are mostly
inhabitant along low-lying Mekong plain and main tributaries. While some ethnic groups
are settling along high hills’ valleys and are dependent on high land rain fed cropping
farming. Either river over-Floods (inundations), flash floods or drought cause damages to43their agricultural production and loss of their properties.
- Energy/Electricity from hydro-power dams throughout the country is one of main exports
for Lao PDR. The shortage of water will impact the country’s income, while the surplus ofwater will threaten the dam’s security and will lead to severe floods.
2. Each SBA affects water and environment:-

In Lao PDR, most critical sectors which affect water and environment are hydro-power,
mining and industry (factories).
Current situations have shown that all dam reservoirs devastated huge forest,
ecosystems and water quality issues.
The mining site exploration as well as factories’ production are of potential risks ofpolluted water through the drainage down to rivers.

B. On-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in Lao PDR

SBA• Agriculture

CC, Water, and Environment
Irrigation for rice fields; Water control gates and Pumping
Stations; Climate Change Adaptation Initiative.

• Energy

Hydropower dams construction and operation at central andsouthern provinces• UrbanIntegrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) overPrioritized River Basins .

C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

(i). Long-range data analysis, Statistical methods.
(ii). Application of climate prediction tool (e.g. CPT, SCOPIC), as a trial , learning by
doing,(iii). Downscaling of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, as a trial
application.
-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

Lao PDR applied the legislative tools:
1. National Water Resources Law
2. The National Water Resources Management Policy and Strategy
3. River Basin Organization/Committee ( RBO/RBC) manage individual Basin.
4. Department of Water Resources (DWR) and Line-Departments under MoNRE

44

play roles of proper implementation-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) is a sole government Agency toprovide services of hydro-met data & climate information. While the Natural Resources
and Environment Research Institute of MoNRE provide the model’s output of Climate
Change Assessment Scenario.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

Up to present time, this issue relied on the design of individual project(international/national consultants) utilizing local raw data provided by DMH-

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

Laboratories are about to be established from this year, so far available data are sharedon demands basis to requested agencies.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues:Specify needs for your country:
Observations:a). Automated Hydro-meteorological stations including rain gauges over river basins areas within-situ data communication network. For the proposed Demonstration Basin, there are following
needs:- 4 land surface climatic stations- 10 hydrological stations- 30 rain gaugesb). Remote sensing: Currently there is only one weather Radar at the headquarters, which can
not cover demonstration site. Also only one Geostationary Satellite of Weather Images Reception
site locating at Headquarters in Capital city.
For capacity improvement, there are needs of at least two more Doppler Weather Radars for data
composite. While Satellite, it is required to upgrade the existing system with latest version andmore advanced applications functions/tools.


Data Access-•

Besides Geostationary Meteorological Satellite , Lao PDR also needs to access GEOSS
network satellite , such as JAXA or others.
NWP products, Lao PDR has access to WMO members’ centers , such as JMA,ECWMF, KMA, Hongkong Observatory, ASMC Singapore, Vietnam (as WMO designatedSupport Center for Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project)
There is a need to strengthening capacity on Downscaling of Climate Regional or global
models into local specific demonstration basin areas.
ModelsCurrently, Lao PDR does not have capacity in running Climate or NWP models. While in
Flood forecasting, currently trial and testing the MRC’s developed models, such as URBS
and FEWS. These are to be adopted for operational use in future.
In this regard, Lao PDR urgently needs recommended appropriate Climate projection
model as well as NWP Model for national use. While hydrological forecasting model, also
needs for application and testing over individual river basins approaches.
Management systems- Forecasting and Early warning are mandated as core roles and functions of Department
Meteorology and Hydrology. DMH has plan (2012-2014) to establish and operate

45National Early Warning Center (NEWC) for Flood, Drought as well as severe disastrous
phenomena.
- National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been mandated to Department ofDisaster Management and Climate Change ( MoNRE), while DMH is one of LineImplementing Agency- Decision Support System (DSS) has been mandated as Cross-Sectored function, which
key implementing agencies are DMH and National Disaster Management Office.
- Community-based systems for disasters and Climate change impacts have beenplanned and to start the mock-Drill exercises at piloted community risk level.
These management systems urgently need assistance on both human resources
capacity building and technical expertise as well as financial support from potential
development partners.


Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences- Lao PDR , as a LDC, has to rely on activities of AWCI Workbenches. On the other hand,
Lao PDR actively involves in implementation of regional programmes , such as ASEAN +Dialogue partners, MRC’s and World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Programmes.
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary--

Existing status and activities :In Lao PDR all Departments / Agencies which manage or related mandates on Water,
Climate Change, Weather, Environment, Land use, Forestry, geology and Lao National
Mekong Committee Secretariat are under the umbrella of Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment (MoNRE). While other ministries are prime users, such as Agriculture,
Energy and Mine, Public Health, etc….
All of these are Line-Agencies of National Mekong Committee which are intercollaborated in implementing the MRC’s Programmes and frameworks.
Current main activities are:
Improvement and Applications of National Water Resources Policy and Strategy in to
Action Plans.
Implementation of the National Integrated Water Resources Management (N-IWRM)
Programmes and the regional Mekong-IWRM programmes.
These include Flood and Drought Management, strengthening Early Warning Systems,
Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives, Information and Knowledge Management.

In regard to the Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation as well as AWCI activities
implementation, there is a need of collaboration amongst Departments of MoNRE and River
Basin Committee (RBC), such as DMH, Natural Resources and Environment ResearchInstitute, Dept. of Water Resources, etc… which are under the same Ministry.
In terms of maintaining data quality, such as rainfall, water level and river discharge, this is
the mandate of DMH to act as service provider, while technical standards to design
infrastructures in terms of water, it is interdisciplinary issue amongst Department of Water
Resources, Natural Resources and Environment Research Institute, Hydropower, Irrigation,water supply, Navigation etc…
2. Implementation proposal
1. Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:
Framework development approach:-National Disaster Management Committee (NDMC) is the high level decision making bodywhich composing of ministerial members and chaired by Vice-Prime Minister.
Existing developed framework and legislation tools are:• National Water Resources Policy and Strategy• National Strategy on Disaster Management• National Climate Change Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA)

46

It is proposed to Develop :(1).
National Policy or Decree on Meteorology and Hydrology(2).
Strategy and SOP on National Early Warning Systems(3).
Guidelines and Procedures on Applications of AWCI over Demonstration Basin and
Replication to Nationwide.
Strategic approach

Intention.
Lao PDR is willing to Input to the AWCI Phase 2 Implementation Plan
Background.
•
In Lao PDR , the implementation of the Integrated Water Resources Management
strategy involved the collaboration of various sectors, especially government
Departments and River Basin Committee. According to geographical features of thecountry, AWCI activities implementation need to be conducted at selected river basinsapproach which benefits to local people living over the basin, their agricultural production,national economic infrastructure, i.e. Hydropower Reservoir for management andoperation of dams.
•
The selected Demonstration site is Sebangfai River Basin. The Study and analysis of
impacts of Climate Change for adaptation planning as well as the study and modeling offlood and drought monitoring , forecasting and early warning will respond to local andnational urgent needs on disaster risk reduction and poverty alleviation. Outputs of AWCI
implementation over this selected demonstration site is actually also contribute to the
Mekong Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Programme and DroughtManagement Programme (FMMP and DMP of MRC).
•
Experiences and best practices learnt from this demonstration will firstly expanded toadjacent upper basin which is the reservoir of Nam Theun, biggest hydropower of thecountry. Furthermore the outcomes of this AWCI demonstration studies will be replicatedto other prioritized river basins over the country, i.e. first five basins during thethimplementation phase of 7 National Development Plan (up to 2015).
Technical approach

It is proposed that the AWCI expert mission to visit Lao PDR for inspection demonstration site,
conducting detail design of activities and convene the meeting on awareness and consultation
with collaborated agencies. Requirements on technical issues for AWCI activities on
demonstration target of Lao PDR should include followings:
1. Detail design to fit AWCI activities and also match national and regional programs;
2. Consultation & Inception Workshop for awareness and transparency
3. Establish adequate automated & telemetry observation station network for rainfall, climate,water level, streamflow and weather.
4. Data collection and Bias correction, through specific trainings
5. Climate Change Assessment and Model testing, downscaling to national and basin’s area
6. Flood and drought Modeling, testing and operational application, consistency with relevant
MRC’s key tools
7. Mainstreaming in to National Early Warning Systems, Disaster Management and Climatechange Adaptation Plans of Actions47

2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators

Collaborators----------Field

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Research

None

None

None

None

Operation

Provincial
authorities

Departments
under MoNRE
and concerned
stakesholders

MRC
RIMES

WMO
UN-ESCAPGEOSS/AWCI

Administration

Provincial
Departments of
NaturalResources andEnvironment

MoNRE andconcerned
Departments

Financial res.

None

National
Counterpart
Contribution

ADB
World Bank
MRC’s
Programmes

Human res.

Provincial Staff
Hydro-Met
Division

Staff of
Departments
under MoNRE

Experts fromAWCIGEOSS/AWCI
JICA

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

There existed the National Strategy of mainstreaming Disaster Management and Risk Reductionthstrategy into the National 7 Five Year Economic Development Planning collaborating with
Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). Also the National Strategy on Early Warning System
has been under adoption and endorsement process.
It is proposed to merge and mainstream the Demonstration Outputs to the existing national
strategies and action plans.
3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:

Need assistance to establish an Office as centralized national GEOSS/AWCI databaseon climate, water, weather including metadata with the service dissemination network
accessible to all national agencies and requested users. This center is the hub to linkwith regional GEOSS/AWCI Data servers.
Need authorization to access data server of GEOSS/AWCI, real time satellite imagery
receiving systems, satellite data in concerned portals.
Need provision and training of following Models for operational application:
Climate Prediction downscaling Model, Climate Analysis and Risk assessment Models,
Flood forecasting models, Flash Flood Guiding Systems Model, Drought Analysis andPrediction Model.

4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country

The urgent and essential needs for capacity development in Lao PDR are both levels ofpractitioners and researchers.

48

- Related to these five items, prioritized needs are as follows:

•

•

•

•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills
and medium to long term supports from regional resource centers:–
Climate–
Water–
Weather
Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinatedby the regional programme.
–
AWCI to match National Integrated Water Resources Management
Programme and coordinated with MRC’s FMMP, IKMP, DMP
programmes
Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence , such as Natural Resources
and Environment Research Institute of MoNRE, WMO’s SWFDP Center in Hanoi,
Vietnam, MRC’s RFMMC in Pnompenh, Cambodia, and Regional Integrated Multihazard
Early Warning Systems (RIMES)’s Center for Asia and Africa
Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level tooperator/technician’s level, with appropriate standards depending on the level (various
kinds of training) including trainer’s training to be followed by practice and identify it as a
postgraduate program in collaboration with Universities in Japan, such as Tokyo
University, JAXA, JMA, ect…, as well as education institutes of neighboring countries,
such as Thailand, Vietnam and other ASEAN member countries.

49

9. Malaysia
1. ISSUES AND NEEDS
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use-

Main issue - problem of floods, river sedimentation, siltation of reservoir and degradationof river water quality due to: intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells) & frequency of extremes
due to heavy rainfall (monsoon and convective); large concentration of runoff – exceeds river capacity; rapid development within the river corridor resulted in higher runoff & deteriorated
river capacity; 60% of population residing in urban areas – flash flooding perceived the mostcritical flood type (surpassing monsoon flood); Inadequate drainage capacity, uncontrolled development, earth works for landdevelopment, soil erosion and sedimentation;
 Coastal areas - flooding could be attributed to high tides and occasionally
aggravated by heavy rains or strong wind;1.2. Available capability/resources:

Network of Hydrological Information
Table 1: National Network of Hydrological Stations in Malaysia
National Network of Hydrological Stations
Rainfall

Evaporation

Streamflow

River
Water
QualityRiver
Suspended
sediment

Peninsula

633

18

92

70

70

Sabah

83

4

37

32

-

Sarawak

297

25

39

5

-

Total

986

47

168

107

70

Table 2: Source of Hydrological Information in Malaysia
Dept. of
Malaysia
Dept. of
Irrigation Meteorological Environment&
Dept
Drainage
Rainfall

MinistryofHealthOthers

Total

1038

271

49

1358

Evaporation

55

60

115

230

Discharge

195

-

24

219

Suspended
Sediment

108

-

-

108

Water
Quality

70

-

-

1328

-

-

115

115

Groundwater

800

458

50

Rainfall and Flood Forecasting Modeling
1. Rainfall Forecasting provided by Malaysia Meteorology Department
2. Floods Forecasting provided by Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia
a. Atmospheric model-based Rainfall and Floods Forecasting System (AMRFF)at Pahang, Kelantan and Johor River Basin;b. Tank Model for Kelantan River Basinc. Infowork Model for Kelang River Basin
d. AWBM-Hydrodynamic Model for SMART Tunnel cum Klang-Ampang River
SystemHuman resources
1. Well-trained rainfall and flood forecasting officers are available but integrated
forecasting system is needed;
2. In-house capacity building also required in order the improvement of rainfall andflood forecasting can be done
1.3. The lack of capability:

Assessment and adaptation of climate change impacts at local scale, integrated
sustainable water resources management in urban and basin levelDescribe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:

Floods and droughtst

Floods have been the most occurred disaster in Malaysia. In the first decade of 21
century, flood events especially flash floods with greater magnitudes are becoming more
frequent. It is estimated that some 29,000 km² or 9% of the total land area are floodprone, affecting more than 15% of the total population. At the same time, dry periods
become even drier where water crisis often occurred and affected thousands of citizens
and crop irrigation systems.
Landslides/slope failure

The increase of surface runoff volume and bare lands including indiscriminate
developments in the building and agriculture sectors in the highlands have exposed theenvironments to landslides and ground erosion resulted in the increased of landslide
incidents for the past 20 years. Failures at cut slopes and embankments mainly due toerosions, underground water movements and insufficient earth/soil treatment are
frequently reported.


Sea level rise

Sea level rise and salinity intrusion and inundation are one of the critical issues as mostof human settlement and urbanization are developed along the coastlines. Our study has
shown that the sea level rise along Malaysian coastline varying in the range of 2.737.0mm/year. By assessing the impact of climate change, it is expected that sea level willrise 0.25-0.52m for Peninsular Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2006) and 0.43-1.06m for East
Malaysia by 2100 (NAHRIM, 2010).


Temperature rise

The rate of warming mean surface temperature for the country as a whole based on 40
years record (1969-2009) increases from 0.6°C to 1.2°C per 50 years. The projectedannual mean surface temperature for future period is higher where it is expected to bewarmer by 1°C to 1.5°C in the next 50 years (NAHRIM, 2006).
Trans-boundary and international coordination

Trans-boundary and international coordination issues of Golok River between Malaysia
and Thailand particularly on the matter related to flood protection system should becoordinated and provided by both countries.

51

2. ISSUES RELATED TO WATER NEXUS: AGRICULTURE, ENERGY, HEALTH – WATER QUALITY, BIODIVERSITY,
AND ECOSYSTEM
2.1. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment
2.2. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBA
Agriculture

EnergyTransportation
Urban &
LanduseEcosystem&Biodiversity

HealthCC, Water and Environment• Aerobic rice production• Research on producing variations of rice, rubber, coca and palm oil with
optimum tolerant level to drought and flood• Crop zoning based on climate, soil and government policy• Long term project of selecting and producing oil palm genes which havehigh drought resistance• Programs to encourage water conservation in oil palm plantation• Raising the height or elevation of dam level for Bekok and Sembrong dam• Small Renewable Energy Power (SREP) Program which includes smallhydropower electric by means of river run-off generation;• Sustainability Achieved Via Energy Efficiency (SAVE) Program to improveenergy efficiency through collaboration between ministry, utility companies,
appliance/equipment manufacturers, retailers & consumer• Biogas Entrapment at Oil Palm Mill Project under the National Key
Economic Areas where all palm mill shall build a facility to capture biogas
by year 2020
• MRT project to enhance public transportation problem in urban and city
areas and to minimize green house gases and climate change impact• Flood Mitigation Programs in the Tenth Malaysian Plan (2011-2015)• Second National Physical Plan (2011-2015)• National Slope Master Plan (2009-2023)• Redevelopment Plan of Brownfield Area
• Logging impact management by implementing Reduced Impact Logging
System• Conserving Marine Biodiversity through Enhanced Marine Park
Management and Inclusive Sustainable Island Development under UNDP
• Borneo Biodiversity & Ecosystems Conservation Programme Phase II(BBEC II) in Sabah (2007-2012)• Malaria control program in an integrated manner through vector control (i.e.
Insecticide Treated Mosquito Nets (ITN), and Indoor Residual Spray (IRS))
and new diagnostic tests (i.e. Rapid Test for quick detection and treatment,
and drug resistance monitoring) and health education and promotion whichaims for zero local transmission in the year 2020.

2.3. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for yourcountry:
2.3.1.

How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

By the analysis of historical observed data coupled with future projections ofrainfall, temperature and river flow characteristics so that it will make known to
the relevant authority
2.3.2.

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among
different sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

As the issue of water and land are under the state matter, an integrated andcoordination, management and data sharing at planning and implementation
should be discussed and agreed by federal and state government52

2.3.3.

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for morecustomized climate information?

Well-designed climate change database and web-based application of futurehydroclimate database need to be established for the common data required,however for specific data and information required it can be obtained uponrequest to the related agency;
2.3.4.

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards,
e.g. for new drainage?

a.

b.
c.

d.

2.3.5.

To review design standard which is to include the element of climate change
in new standards such as to introduce “climate change load factor” inrainfall-runoff modeling for drainage design of river system, open and closed
channel network, sewerage system and reservoir capacity;
To introduce “wind load factor” for building standard and “temperature loadfactor” for road construction;
To include “sea level rise load factor” for coastal protection system andcoastal infrastructure; and also to use “green infrastructure technology” suchas rainwater harvesting, construction materials, landuse planning and to
enforce the Urban Storm water Management Manual for Malaysia as amandatory practices;
Other words, to integrate disaster risk management and climate change
adaptation at planning and implementation stage so that it can minimize theimpacts of water hazards.

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

Data sharing with different sectors are done through local networks, meetings,
workshops, seminars and project collaborations
3. NEEDS FOR FUNCTIONS AND/OR TOOLS OF WCI TO ADDRESS THE IDENTIFIED ISSUES


Observations:3.1.1. In-situ telemetric network (mountain areas)a. Network coverage and density of in-situ telemetry system require to be
improved in order to enhance ground data observation;b. National hydrological stations network may need to be upgraded and migrate
to telemetric system network but with cost implication.
3.1.2. remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in futurea. remote sensing observation system by means of satellite and weather(precipitation) radar should be improved as for improving real-time quantitative
rainfall estimate (QPE);
b. Radar density and coverage has to be enhanced particularly to cover medium
to large river basin.
-

Data Access
Satellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data): Calibrated gridded

satellite rainfall data and coding application is required so that it can be coupledwith ground data observation network (telemetric) in order to produce QPE, andthus quantitative precipitation forecast can be produced;

Global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)a. Numerical weather prediction : method of information dissemination should be
improve and ready to share the data
b. Reanalysis data: accessibility to download it from climate data centre or
regional centre53

c. Climate change projection: able to produce climate change project throughRCM and Regional Hydroclimate Model (RegHCM);Models








Management systems-



Forecasting
Early Warning
Decision support
 National/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction
measures, adaptation strategies)
 community-based

Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences :Lumped/semi/fully distributed land surface hydrologic model
Fine resolution of Digital Terrain /Elevation model (DTM/DEM)
Landslide prediction model
Water quality model
Watershed inflow model

Regional Data Centre

Capacity building – describe in other section (Part 2: Implementation Proposal)

4. NEEDS FOR COLLABORATIONINTERDISCIPLINARY

FRAMEWORKAT

THE

NATIONAL

LEVEL:

INTER-AGENCY,

Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:
4.1. We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together;

Task force, technical and working committees involving all stakeholders are establishedto work together in addressing water, environment and climate change issues
4.2. We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies:

It is critically essential as to incorporate and facilitate implementation of climate-friendly
measures and technologies by strengthening the laws and regulations, human resource
development, finance and incentives, research and development and transfer oftechnologies
4.3. We need to implement
conferences/workshops

demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional

Studies and discussions on impacts and climate change adaptation to water resources,
agriculture, energy, health etc are aggressively ongoing at national and international
symposiums and workshops
4.4. We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water:a.
b.

Database and data quality control is needed such as developed for DIAS AWCI
system is required but also to provide “digital” library so that it can accommodate
potential users;
Technical standards is paramount important as it will assist and guide potentialuser to use the data and information.

54

2. IMPLEMENTATION PROPOSAL
1.

Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:

Figure 1 shows the steps and strategy to conduct the proposed extension study AWCI project.

TECHNICAL GUIDELINES
CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSUE – PROBLEM
STATEMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE LOAD
FACTORRAINFALL LOAD FACTOR

DEMONSTRATIONBASIN(S) OR
STUDY AREA(S)
CLIMATE CHANGE
MODELING &PROJECTIONOBSERVEDTRENDSGLOBALCIRCULATIONMODELREGIONAL
HYDROCLIMATEMODELDRAINAGE SYSTEM,WATER RELATEDINFRASTRUCTURE(ROAD & HIGHWAY)etc.

DOWNSCALING& BIAS
CORRECTION

TEMP. LOAD FACTOR
ROAD & HIGHWAY
STANDARDDERIVATION CC
LOAD FACTOR
WIND LOAD FACTOR
MODELING &ASSESSMENT

ADAPTATIONOPTIONECONOMICSSTUDY – COSTBENEFITANALYSIS (CBA)

DISSEMINATION OF
INFO: WORKSHOP,SEMINAR,KNOWLEDGE HUBSPROJECT CYCLEACTUAL
IMPLEMENTATIONBUILDING CODE &STANDARD
SLR LOAD FACTOR

COASTAL PROTECTIONSYSTEM & COASTALINFRASTRUCTURE

Figure 1: Proposed Technical Approach for conducting the extension of AWCI project

55

2.

Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators- Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research, operation,
administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

MMD, UKM,
DOA,
MARDI

MMD, UKM,
Agency Remote
Sensing, TNB R&D,
MARDI

Univ. of California(Davis), NCAR,
MRI, CSIRO

Operation

DID, MMD,PWD, DOE,
DOA,

Administration

NAHRIM
District &stateauthorities

DID, PWD, MMD,
DOE, DOA,
MOGTWE, NRE,
National Security
CouncilNational Water
Services
Commission,
NAHRIM,

Univ. of Tokyo,
Institute Water
Management(IWM), JICA,RHIMES, Regional
Water Knowledge
Hubs
JAXA, Regional
Water Knowledge
Hubs

Regional Water
Knowledge Hubs
other relevantorganizations

WMO
UN
other relevantorganizations

Financial res.

State
Government

JICA, APN, ADB

Human res.

DID, local
authority

ADB
World Bank
IDB
UNDP-GEF
UNFCCC
University ofCalifornia, Davis

Collaborators----------Field
ResearchFederalGovernment MOF, NRE,
MOGTWE, MOSTI,
JICA
DID, UKM,
Universities, NGO

Regional Water
Knowledge Hubs,
RHIMES, IWM, UNCECAR

UNFCCC

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

Wise management of resources and enhanced environmental conservation instrengthening economic competitiveness and improving quality of life through the
integration of policies, plans, programs and cooperation from stakeholders, research
institutes, government agencies, non-governmental organizations and the key players in all
related sectors. The focus is to strengthen the resilience of development from arising andpotential climate change impacts.This strategy should be empowered with adequate
resource allocation, educational, training and research.
3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:
3.1.
Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case

Geospatial data – fine resolution of DEM/DTN
Satellite imagery data – flood areas/ burning area hot spot
Satellite based rainfall, temp data etc.
Altimetry data
Global climate model
Global forecast data from Global Forecast System (GFS)
Upper sounding data and information
3.2.

Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function

56More than emission scenario (only SRES A1B available) such as A2, A1F1, B1,
etc.
GCM data – full scenario period is needed (2010-2100) instead 2046-2065 only
Possible to obtain sub-daily data
CMIP3 and CMIP5 data set
3.3.

Data access and information exchange

An appropriate accessibility to information and data exchange through a systematicand centralized database
3.4.

Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind forwhat purpose

GCM downscaling to local level - models of precipitation and temperature forhydrological and hydraulic modeling
Climate change analysis models/tools which integrating/ensemble all/criticalparameters: temperature, precipitation, altimetry sea level, landuse change etc.
Main purposed - analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision
support as to accommodate the project approach as shown in Figure 1.
3.5.

Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

Access for data, knowledge and technology sharing/transfers, especially real timeand forecasted hydro-meteorological monitoring and modeling
4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:
•
•

•
•
•

Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.
Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).
Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.
Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)
Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

57

10. Mongolia
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues - identify which of the common issues are relevant to your country:
changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessment
intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclonesfrequency of extremes: flood (localized + social) and droughtseasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )Identify available capability/resources in your country – specify clearly
Identify lack of capability – specify clearly, including more details, which capability out of the following ones is
missing: monitoring, modeling, inventory of water resources, understanding planning & management

Climate extreme variability is changing over Mongolia. According to extreme indices estimation ofdaily variability from 1961- 2008 (MARCC, 2009), the number of days, when daily maximumthtemperature is higher than its 90 percentile, has increased by 7-12 days. The number of days,
when daily minimum temperature is lower than its 10th percentile, has decreased by 3-6 days in
the country. Similarly, their duration (higher than consecutive 6 days) increased and decreased,
respectively. It indicates that dry spell is becoming more severe in the country.
There is no significant change in precipitation, however during last decade it tends to decrease insummer and increase in winter. More intensive decrease in precipitation has been observed incentral region of Mongolia, where more intensive increase in temperature has also been
observed. Precipitation type tends to change from large scale to more convective precipitation.
Accordingly, number of flash flood events increases and causes significant flood damage in urban
areas coupled with desertification, urbanization and climate change adverse effects.
Generally, climate is changing, coldness weakens, however, it becomes snowy and hotter anddry conditions prevail in summer.
Available capability/resources: monitoring network consists of 134 hydrological, 130meteorological stations and 200 agro-meteorological posts, 2 satellite receiving stations, 1
Doppler radar, 3 Lidars, super computer system and trained personnel capacity in climate,weather, hydrology and water resources, expertise and linkages with national, regional andinternational funding organizations.
Lack of capability: network extension in terms of space (at high altitude) and time (automatedcontinuous measurement), application of distributed hydrological model to apply for climatechange assessment and adaptation at river basin scale (within closed system) and flood anddrought early warning systems. Lack real integration and coordination in holistic sense ofIntegrated water resources management at national, basin scales.
Describe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:

Depletion of ground water: Climate change leads to change in rainfall pattern, land cover,consequently, it is observed clear depletion of groundwater in Mongolia and loss of hydraulicconnection between surface water and groundwater. As consequences during the low flow period
cutting surface runoff, exhausting groundwater reservoirs in bigger settlement area etc. causing
seasonal shortage of water use.
Hydropower: Nowadays, 13 small and medium sized hydropower stations are operating in
Mongolia and impacts of the power station to downstream natural regime, water availability andsafety and efficient operation of the power stations, establishing monitoring network of thehydropower system and research studies on water balance of the reservoir are becoming criticaland specific issues in our country.

58

Trans-boundary and international coordination (MRC): trans-boundary water resourcesmanagement plans are implemented in agreement with two neighboring countries.
2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)

Natural disasters such as drought, heavy snow fall, flood, windstorms and extreme cold and hottemperature events are recurrent all the year round and the prediction suggest higher
temperatures and less rain in summer and more snow in winter (frequent droughts or harsh
winter). Depending on the specific geographical and climatic conditions, Mongolia might be moreheavily influenced by the global climate change. The impacts of climate change on the ecologicalsystem and the natural resources would be dramatic affecting directly almost all sectors of thenational economy and all spheres of social life, such as livestock, agriculture, human mechanicalmigration and poverty.
2. Each SBA affects water and environment

Mining, urbanization, agricultural cultivation, pasture use lead to desertification and land coverchanges that results in decrease in rainfall, decline natural water resources.
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBA
All SBA in selected river basins:

CC, Water, and Environment“Ecosystem based adaptation approach tomaintaining water security in critical rivercatchments in Mongolia” (5.425 million USD)All SBA in selected river basins:“Strengthening integrated water resourcesmanagement in Mongolia” (6.0 million USD)

C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:- How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

Using National Target Programme on Climate change to address seasonal variability atnational level.
- How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different sector
uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

We need national coordination body at Prime minister cabinet level which will be able tocoordinate all water related issues in terms of IWRM based on Law on Water, National
Program on water, IWRM plans, River basin council focuses.
- How can we give the right information to these different sectors?

National Agency for Hydrology, Meteorology and Environment and National Water Agency
are responsible for provision of information on water resources and climate change todifferent sectors.
- How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

It is needed to develop new or redesign criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude ofwater hazards, based on climate change scenarios and hydrology modeling results.
Regionally, it is encouraged to develop baselines to develop new or redesign criteria tochanging characteristics and magnitude of water hazards.
- How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

There is National law on hydrometeorology and environment monitoring that regulates routine
data sharing and special data collection and sharing among providers and users. WMO
standard for data sharing and exchange is also used.

59

3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Specify needs for your country:
Observations:in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas)
remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future

Currently, the National Hydrometeorological Service, NHMS in Mongolia receives NOAA, MODIS
and FY2D satellites data and processes their raw data as operationally and mainly for weather
and environment monitoring purposes such as cloud image, snow cover, biomass, forest fire anddust storm. It is needed to establish ASTER and Aqua/AMSR-E satellite data receiving stations
and tools for data processing in the Agency for hydrology, meteorology and environment
monitoring in Mongolia for environment and water resources monitoring and research.
Doppler radar is operating in Ulaanbaatar for now-casting of heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
In future, it is necessary to create Doppler radar’s network including at least 3 radars over central
region of the country.
Network extension with in-situ telemetric and automated stations at high altitude for water cycle
monitoring is important task for the country.
Data Acce-satellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)

The Institute of meteorology, hydrology and environment is needed to have access tohistorical data of ASTER and Aqua/AMSR-E satellites for environment and water resources
monitoring and research.
-

global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)

NHMS obtains global model output from ECMWF, NCEP, JMA, KMA and CMA with 6 hourly,
daily, monthly and seasonal time slices. However, regional models (MM5 and WRF) are
performed as operationally up to 10 km resolution based on NCEP and KMA global model
output as creating initial and boundary conditions.
NCEP I, II and final reanalysis, ERA40, JRA25 reanalysis are mostly used in research studyof simulating of regional climate and land surface models. It is needed capacity building tocreate national reanalysis data
Global climate model output in IPCC, DDC and CMIP4/5 are mainly used for climate
projection of Mongolia as simply interpolating and statistical downscaling. Only ECHAM5
model output is dynamically downscaled by regional climate model under A1B GHG
scenarios, AR4. Other GCMs 6 hourly 3D data need to access in terms of ensemble
prediction and model uncertainty.
ModelsNHMS does not perform global model, however, regional weather (MM5/WRF) and climate
model (RegCM3/4) run coupling with land surface modeling such as Noah, BATS and CLM
in the country.
Statistic guidance method MOS technique (Kalman filter and Neuron network) is linked thesemodel output to exclude system error and produce user oriented point data in city andsettlement. Distributed hydrological model and water and energy budget models are needed.
Management systems
Forecasting

Real time data processing and analysis system is needed in weather forecast operational
activity.

60

-

Early Warning

Flood and drought early warning systems will be adaptive and decision making tools arehighly preferable to be implemented in the country.
-

Decision support

Decision support system tools for IWRM is needed.


Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences

WMO standard is applicable for data sharing and exchange.
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary
Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:

We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.

We need to enhance inter-sectoral coordination and reorganizing existing data
information centers.


We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies.

We need national coordination body at Prime minister cabinet level which will be able tocoordinate all water related issues in terms of IWRM based on Law on Water, National
Program on water, IWRM plans, River basin council focuses.


We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional
conferences/workshops.

We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices throughconferences/workshops organized in national level and river basin councils and shear
good practices from countries in the region.
We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

Data are exchanged between Mongolia and Russia, China in trans-boundary river basins;data will be exchanged through DIAS system for AWCI, University of Tokyo, Japan(desired to be user-friendly).
2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:

There are 2 possible proposals:
1. Mongol AMSR/AMSR-E/ ALOS validation experiment (MAVEX),Lead Prof. I. Kaihotsu,
University of Hiroshima, and prof. T. Koike, University of Tokyo, Japan
2. Water and energy budgets and modeling in Tuul and Ulaan-Am river basins, Mongolia tosupport IWRM in these basins
Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your country
Demonstration design  infrastructure integrityIntroducing legislationhigh level coordination bodyresearch promotionImprovement of awarenessprivate
sector involvement

Second proposal has been submitted to Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism forapproval.
Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy and feasibility, benefits toother sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting with existing inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality61

Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences a holistic understanding
and technology.

Detailed regional project covering showcase, demonstrations within region and expansion of the
AWCI demonstration studies, enabling sharing experiences, understanding water cycle andclimate change related issues and technology transfer is most relevant approach for Mongolia.
Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country
MonitoringunderstandingClimate change assessment including downscaling, bias correctiondetailassessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation of regional knowledge“Water and energy budgets and modeling in Tuul and Ulaan-Am river basins, Mongolia to support
IWRM in these basins” proposal focuses on extension of existing water cycle observation network,
climate change assessment including downscaling, modeling, demonstration and contribution to
IWRM in these basins.
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators


Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Center of
Hydrometeorology inprovince

Institute ofMeteorology andHydrology,
MongolianAcademy of
Sciences

UNDP,
AWCI, IAEA,
WMO, IHP

Operation

Center of
Hydrometeorology inprovince

Institute ofMeteorology andHydrology

JMA, CMA, KMA ,ICHARM Tokyo
University,
Research instituteofhydrometeorologyof Russia(Obininsk)
KMA, CMA, JMA

WMO,

Administration

Regional
Hydrometeorologicalcenters

WMO RA II

WMOFinancial res.

Local government,
private companies

Local observers,
engineers in regionalhydrometeorologicalcenters, Darkhan
and Khovd province
agriculture University

JMA, CMA, KMA ,ICHARM Tokyo
University, JAXA,
Tsukuba University,
Hiroshima
University, IORCG,
JAMSTEC
Tsukuba University,
Hiroshima
University, KMA,
CMA, JMA, AIT,
Roorkee India

WMO, IAEA,
NOAA,
UNDP
WB, JICA,
KOIKA,
WWF, IHP

Human res.

Ministry ofEnvironment andTourism, National
Agency for
Hydrology,
Meteorology andEnvironment
monitoring
Ministry ofEnvironment andTourism,
NAMHEM,
Science andtechnologicalFoundation
Ministry ofEnvironment andTourism, National
University ofMongolia, Water
authority,
Academy of
Sciences

Collaborators----------Field
Research

UNDP,
WMO, IHP,
IAEA,
JICA,
NOAA,
WWF, DHI

62



Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

The Government of Mongolia has established an interagency and intersectoral National Climate
Committee (NCC) led by the Minister for Nature, Environment and Tourism to coordinate andguide national activities and measures aimed to adapt to climate change and to mitigate GHG
emissions. The NCC approves the country’s climate policies and programmes, evaluates projects
and contributes to the guidance to these activities. It is directly responsible for implementing thecommitments under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol and for managing the nationwide activities
to integrate all climate-change-related problems in various sectors.
3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:

Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case:-

ASTER and Aqua/AMSR-E satellite data receiving
In-situ telemetric and automated stations at selected high altitude basins for water cycle
monitoring
Access to historical data of ASTER and Aqua/AMSR-E satellites for environment andwater resources monitoring and researchData request function responding to new needs – what kind of function:-

Real-time reporting of hydrological data from networks including from remote stations



Data access and information exchange:-

Promotion and strengthening of the principle of free and unrestricted international
exchange of data, information and products

Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purpose:-For drought and flood
Models/tools for flood routing prediction, water balance
GCM –MOLTs for hydrological models

Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office:-Data sharing and exchange
Access and use of e-learning materials

4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country• Distributed hydrological modeling• Remote sensing and satellite application• Downscaling technique in river basin scale- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:•
Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.

-

National Program on Climate change and National Program on water•

Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).

-

Training for engineers, technicians, practitioners and operators are needed.

•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.

-

Ensemble prediction and its application

63

•

Data assimilation satellite data
GCM –models temperature/precipitation for hydrological models
Statistical techniques
Distributed hydrological modeling
Operational hydrological forecasting
National reanalysis data development
Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence

UNU, UN-CECAR, ICHARM, AIT•

Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

Regular workshops are organized by Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology andEnvironment (IHME), workshops organized within River basin councils to strengthen
IWRM with participation of National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
monitoring, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IHME), Water Agency,
Regional hydrometeo centers, WWF, USA- Asia foundation and etc.

6411. Myanmar
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues

The following common issues are relevant to our country (Myanmar):- changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessment
 intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclones
 frequency of extremes: flood (localized)and drought seasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )- Available capability/resources in our country are some hydrologists and Meteorologists
for human resources- Lacks of capability in our country are specifically monitoring and modeling in impact ofclimate changes on water resources, and understanding planning & management.


Critical and specific issues:-

Flood/ DroughtFlash flood
landslides / erosion
Depletion of ground water

2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A.

Issues related to Water Nexus in our country are as follow:
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA) (such as agriculture, Energy, Urban, Ecosystem
and Biodiversity, Health, Infrastructure)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment

B.

On-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in our country are as follow:- To reduce the crop failure due to CC and to control the flood, some dams are constructing
for monitoring the water scarcity and surplus by the concerning departments- To get more electric energy, hydropower plants are constructing by concerning department.
- To monitor the water quality, the relevant departments are measuring water quality
parameters- Myanmar National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) is commencing for Vulnerability
Assessment and Measured for reduction of impact and strategy for adaptation.
C.

Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for our country:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

We can address seasonal variability at national level by the analysis of past historicalobservation data.
-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

We can manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream byinstalling observation stations (if need to install stations in upstream and downstream)and sharing data and also cooperate among different sectors (hydropower, irrigation,water supply).
-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

We can give the right information to these different sectors through fax, phone, radio andTV, holding meetings and workshops.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

We can adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water
hazards as follows:

65

•
•
•
•
•
-

Development of a new generation of risk-based design standards for infrastructure;
responding to extreme events (floods and droughts);
Increased research and development oriented towards climate change andvariability;
Develop improved forecasting methods for improved reservoir and emergency
operations;
Strengthen interagency collaboration for developing joint procedures and appliedresearch for adapting to climate change;
Strengthen emergency management and preparedness plans for all Corps projects
and assist local communities in upgrading their plans and participation.

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

We can share the data to the different sectors by holding meetings and workshops.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues

Observations:

Data Access

in-situ telemetric network (upstream remote areas and mountain area)
remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in futuresatellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)
global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)

ModelsRainfall Downscaling models, Climate scenario models such as PRECIS and SWAT, WEBDHM model, Flood Forecasting Models for wide catchment areaManagement systems-



Forecasting
Early Warning
Decision support
 National/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction
measures, adaptation strategies)
 community-based

Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences

4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary

The following activities/frameworks are needed in our country:
 We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water
nexus to all the stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas
and experiences, and working together.
 We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or
policy making- levels by involving academia and civil societies.
 We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices throughregional conferences/workshops.
 We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully
river discharge and technical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.
2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:
Framework development approach – desirable framework in our country
Demonstration design  infrastructure integrityIntroducing legislationhigh level coordination bodyresearch promotionImprovement of awarenessprivate
sector involvement

66

Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy and feasibility, benefits toother sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting with existing inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality

Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences a holistic understanding
and technology.
Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering our target basin/country
MonitoringunderstandingClimate change assessment including downscaling, bias correctiondetailassessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation of regional knowledge
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators

Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Collaborators----------Field

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Research

DMH

DMH

DMH(Myanmar),AWCI,GEOSS, other relevantorganizations

AWCI, GEOSS,
other relevantorganizations

Operation

DMH

DMH

DMH(Myanmar),AWCI,GEOSS, other relevantorganizations

AWCI, GEOSS,
other relevantorganizations

Administration

DMH

DMH

DMH(Myanmar),AWCI,GEOSS, other relevantorganizations

AWCI, GEOSS,
other relevantorganizations

Financialresources--

APN and otherfinancial support
organizations

APN and otherfinancial support
organizations

Human
resources

DMH

DMH

DMH(Myanmar),AWCI,GEOSS, other relevantorganizations

AWCI, GEOSS,
other relevantorganizations

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for our country needs:

Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific caseIn our specific case, we need to analyze the climate change, its impacts on water
resources and to predict the climate scenarios and flood forecasts, flood hazard map forthe D.P basin.
Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function-

Soil Information for flood forecasts
Satellite image of Flood period for Flood Hazard Map
Digital Elevation Model with high resolution for Flood Hazard Map

67

Data access and information exchange

By DVD or CDModels and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purposeAnalysis (such as PRECIS climate model), prediction (rainfall downscaling model,
Climate projection rainfall bias correction method, WEB-DHM model, Global Climate
Model (GCM) with downscaling and Hydrologic model), risk assessment.
The objectives of above mention are to reduce the loss of live and properties, to analyze
the impact of climate change on river flow and flood and to simulate the runoff based on
certain parameter: observed daily climatic data, topography, soil and land cover.


Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

To improve the issuance of the accurate and timely flood forecast for early warning
system and to develop the flood hazard map in order to improve the systematic flood
management system
4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- The contents of capacity development needs in our country are as follow:(a) Technical developments for rainfall downscaling model, rainfall-runoff model andflood forecasting model(b) Human resources developments for the trainings of above models- Our country needs the following items:• Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinatedby the regional programme.
• Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level tooperator/technician’s level, with appropriate standards depending on the level (various
kinds of training) including trainer’s training to be followed by practice and identify it as a
postgraduate program in collaboration with international educational framework (e.g.
UNU, UN-CECAR).
• Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills
and medium to long term supports to regional resource centers.
• Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on
WR)• Organize capacity development workshops in our country for the agencies involved in the
project at national level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participatingorganizations for making such an opportunity.

6812. Nepal
Water, the most precious gift of the nature, is the prime natural resource and source of life. Water
as a resource is under relentless pressure due to population explosion with rise in living standard,
rapid urbanization, large-scale industrialization; environmental demands and climate change.
Water is also a key component of hydrological cycle which makes a bridge between the sociobenefits areas including agriculture and forestry; health; energy; human settlement andgeophysical and bio-geochemical water cycle process in atmosphere, oceans, and land. Climatechange is continuously triggering significant and harmful impact in water cycle. Nepal is also
experiencing the harmful impacts of climate change on water resources and water related
hazards viz. flash floods; GLOF; retreat of glaciers lakes and shift of hydrological regime of rivers.
Impact of climate change in Nepal is critically high and severe compared to other developed
countries due to its fragile mountain ecosystem; rugged and high mountain terrain; and its poor
economy. Climate change is a global phenomena and its impact can be minimized in coordinatedand sustained way.
In this context, AWCI is becoming a common platform among Asia – Pacific countries to sharedata; information; exchange of knowledge and experiences; deepen mutual understanding andwork together effectively. Nepal is a member country of AWCI since its beginning and taking part
actively in each its activities. Nepal has proposed two river basins namely Bagmati River Basin as
demonstration basin and Narayani River Basin as CCAA study basin.
River Basins of Nepal

Bagmati River Basin

Narayani River Basin

2

Bagmati River is a medium type of river of Nepal with drainage area of 3700 Km . It originatesfrom Shivapuri Hill (2731 m) and flows down to south through Kathmandu valley up to Indo –Nepal boarder. Nakhhu, Kulekhani, Kokhajor, Marin and Chandi rivers are its major tributaries.
Flood damages; landslides, bank erosion and water pollution are acute problems in the river
basin. There are 21 numbers of meteorological stations and two hydrometric stations within andaround the basin.
2

Narayani River Basin is a major river basin of Nepal. It has total drainage area of 34960 Km out
2
2of which 29626 Km lies in Nepal and 5334 km lies in Tibet, China. The basin contains 1025 no.
glaciers and 338 no glaciers lakes out of which 4 no. are potentially dangerous for GLOF. It has
22030 Km area under ice and snow cover. Budhi Gandaki, Trishuli, Marsayndi, Kali Gandaki and
Seti are major tributaries of the Narayani River. GLOF, landslides, flash flood and floodinundation are severe problems in the river basin. There are 58 no of metrological and 26 no ofhydrometric station in and around the basin.
Nepal Involvement in AWCI Phase 2 (in line with GEOSS/WCI)
1. Issues and Needs
The climate in Nepal varies from the tropical to the arctic within 200 km span south to north. Muchof Nepal falls within monsoon region, with regional climate variation largely being a function of0
elevation. National mean temperature hover around 15 C, and increase from north to south with69

exception of mountain valleys. Average rainfall is 1875 mm, with rain fall increasing from west to
east. Although rainfall is abundant, its distribution is of great concern: flooding is frequent in the
monsoon season during the summer, while droughts are not common in Nepal.
Temperature observation in Nepal from 1977 – 1994 show a general warming trend (Shrestha et0
al. 1999) with an annual increase of 0.06 C/year. Later study (Practical Action 2009) on thetemperature trend of 45 stations from 1976 to 2005 also shows a consistent and continuous
0
warming at an annual rate of 0.04 C/year. The temperature differences are most pronounced
during dry winter season, and least during the height of monsoon. There is also significantly
greater warming at the higher elevation in the northern part of the country than at lower elevation
in south. Significant glacier retreat as well as significant areal expansion of several glacial lakes,
and shifting of snow line upward to the higher elevation have been documented in the recent
decades, with extremely likelihood that such impacts are linked to the rising of temperature.
There are no definitive trends in aggregate precipitation, although there is some evidence of more
intense precipitation events. The annual precipitation trends based on the analysis of 166 station
all over Nepal from 1976 to 2005 reveals positive trend in annual rainfall in Eastern, Central,
Western and Far-western Nepal. The overall trend in the country is increasing by 3.6 mm/year.
Analysis reveals that number of rainy days is in decreasing trends whereas the amount of
average annual precipitation remains almost same. It leads to come up with the conclusion thatthe intensity of the rainfall is increasing. A somewhat clear picture emerges in the stream flow
patterns of certain rivers where there has been an increase in the number of flood days. Somerivers are also exhibiting a trend towards a reduction in dependable flows in the dry season,
which has implications both in irrigation and hydropower. Glacial retreats also contributesignificantly to stream flows variability in the spring and summer, while glacial lake outbursts
which are becoming more likely with rising temperature, are an additional source of flooding risk.
Variability in the monsoon rainfall is likely to change in the flooding process resulting in riverfloods, flash floods, urban floods, sewer floods, glacial lake outburst floods. The flood-producing
processes include intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, dam break, landslides, orby storm which cause landslides and bank erosion in hilly areas and inundation problem in plainarea of the country. The variability in the precipitation is likely to bring changes in river annual
flows. The impact is on the water availability (irrigation and water supply infrastructures) andpower output of hydropower projects.
Warming trends have already had significant impacts in the Nepal Himalayas – mostly significant
in terms of glacier retreat and significantly increases in the size and volume of glacier lakes,
making them more prone to GLOF. Continued glacier retreat can also reduce dry season flow fed
by the glacier melt. The enhanced melting, as well as the increased length of the melt seasons of
Himalayan glaciers, first leading to increased downstream river runoff and discharge peaks, whilein the longer time-frame (decadal to century scale), glacier runoff is expected to decrease. The
impact is on the downstream water availability for irrigation and water supply and power
generation of the run of the river hydropower projects. Snow residency period is observed
shortened in recent past a decade due to which the process of metamorphism in the Cryosphereis severely affected. Shifting of snowline in the Nepal Himalayas upward to the higher altitude isbeing observed.
Variability in the rainfall in the summer and winter is likely to increase the frequency of draught.
Decreased land precipitation and increased temperatures, is likely to enhance evapotranspiration
and reduce soil moisture. The impact is on the rain fed agriculture, water supply systems (due todrying out or reduction in the spring discharges), and production of terrestrial ecosystem (forest
production and availability of fuel wood, fodder and grass)
Being poor country, Nepal is facing tremendous difficulties to cope with the rising adverse
impacts associated with climate change. There is no single focal institution within governmental
setup which can address the issues and problems related to the climate change. Government istrying to set up a focal point under the Ministry of Science and Technology. Recently Government70

of Nepal has focused to mainstreaming climate change issues into the government policies andactions. Government has recently formulated National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
to climate change.
There are different departments like Department of Irrigation (DOI); Nepal electricity Authority(NEA); Department of Water Supply and Sanitation; and Department of Water Induced Disaster
Prevention (DWIDP) who take sectoral water related decision in the basin individually. Efforts arebeing made to set up a single institution within the basin which can take water related decision
based on IWRM principles.
Review of the existing government organizations in the water resources sector indicates theabsence of an appropriate institutional framework for integrated management. Problems relating
to institutional framework and mechanism are:Absence of an effective central planning organization (despite mandating WECS as thecentral water planning body);
Blurred responsibilities between policy, implementation, operational and regulatory
institutions;
Absence of an institutional framework for coordinated and integrated development;
Jurisdictional overlaps and challenges of maintaining coordination between public andlocal bodies; andAbsence of an effective mechanism for institutional cooperation for the development ofinternational watercourses.
2. Issues related to Water Nexus: Agriculture; Energy; Health-Water quality; biodiversity;and Ecosystem
Untimely rainfall and decrease in the river/rivulet discharges in the winter and summer
months (Hill, Mountain and Terai ecological zones) resulting to closer of water mills (Hilland Mountain ecological zones), inadequate or no water in the irrigation systems (Hill,
Mountain and Terai ecological zones), low energy output of the hydropower plants
including micro-hydro plants (Hill and Mountain ecological zones);
Decrease in longer and milder precipitation and increase in shorter and intense
precipitation resulting to high run off, increased soil erosion (Hill, Mountain and Terai
ecological zones), increased mass wasting such as debris flows and landslides (Hill andMountain ecological zones) and increased floods in the monsoon (Terai ecologicalzone);
Decrease in soil moisture (Hill, Mountain and Terai ecological zones) in the winter andsummer (due to high evapotranspiration, and decline in rainfall) resulting to reduced
agricultural productivity and forest productivity with implications on food security andenergy security;
Decline in the rivulet and spring discharges (Hill and Mountain ecological zones) often
going dry resulting to water scarcity even for domestic consumption making the watersupply infrastructure inadequate and redundant;
Decline in recharge of groundwater (Terai ecological zone) due to intense precipitationand high runoff resulting to lowering of the shallow groundwater levels;
Shift in the precipitation forms from snow to rain (Mountain ecological zone) resulting
reduced groundwater recharge and increased soil erosion;
Increased water pollution particularly pathogens due to increased rainfall intensity andlong period of low flows (Hill and Mountain ecological zones) resulting into epidemic
outbreak;Increased forest fires (Hill and Mountain ecological zones) due to long spell of no
precipitation in the winter resulting into scarcity in the fuel wood (primary householdenergy for cooking) and loss of biodiversity;
Increased water induced disaster due to frequent and intense precipitation in monsoon
resulting to flash floods (Terai ecological zone) and landslides (Hill and mountainecological zones) with implications on human life and property, road andcommunication infrastructures, irrigation and water supply infrastructures, andhydropower plants (including micro-hydro);

71

Increased long periods of no rain or little rain in the winter, pre-monsoon and delayedmonsoon season resulting into draught (Hill, Mountain and Terai ecological zones);
Increased sediment loads in the rivers due to frequent and intense precipitation in the
monsoon resulting into river bed and bank erosion (Hill and Mountain ecological zones)
and river bed level rise and bank erosion (Terai ecological zone) with implications on
the life and property of communities residing close to rivers and road, communication,
irrigation and water supply infrastructures
Understanding the dynamics of current variability and future climate change as they affect waterand energy supply and demand across all water and energy using sectors, and enhanced
capacity to respond to these dynamics enables better water and energy resources management.
This strengthens resilience to current climate challenges, while building capacity to adapt tofuture climate change
We can manage water resources between upstream and downstream and among the sectors inproper way on IWRM principle. Optimization of water uses and proper water allocation can also
minimize the conflict among sector uses. Special effort should be required in conflict resolution ofwater right among upstream and downstream users as well as sectoral users. Nepal has set thepriorities among the sectoral uses in Water Resources Act and Regulations.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Nepal has started taking hydro meteorological data since 1962. Generally, in-situ observation
data like precipitation & temperature, wind velocity, RH are observed. Department of Hydrology
and Meteorology has recently established few in-situ observation stations in high altitude for snow.
In-situ observation stations in mountains area are few in operation. In- situ telemetric network is
yet to be established. Remotely sensed data (Satellite, radar) is used in special case for decision
making. Real time data of few river gauge stations are recently started to be taken. Department ofHydrology & Meteorology (DHM) is a sole government agency responsible for hydro metrological
data. Regional and Global data centers for satellite data, reanalysis data, climate projection data
etc should be established for easy access to data.
Understanding for using physical based hydrological models is comparatively very less.
Distributed hydrological models are rarely used in decision making process. HEC series model
like HEC-HMS, HEC RAS is used in some cases. Data availability & data length, poor resolution& accuracy; less observation frequency and less coverage are the gaps in using data & model.
Flood is frequent extreme event in the river basin of Nepal. Flood fore casting and early warning
system is not yet established. It is very difficult to identify the single impediment to successful
management of the basin. Lack of basin wise single institution, lack of enough in-situ data &remotely sensed data and lack of consorted effort from line agencies are the impediments.
Common platform like AWCI will be very effective for sharing data and knowledge andexchanging ideas and experiences in water related issues for country like Nepal.
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level; inter-agency; interdisciplinary
Climate change is a global phenomena and its impact can be locally and globally as well. Its
impact can be minimized if we work together in coordinated and sustained way. There should be
a common platform at national as well as regional level where we show holistic view of water andclimate change and their impacts on water nexus to all stakeholders through sharing data andinformation, exchanging ideas and experiences. Enhanced water-related information systems andappropriate legal frameworks should be made functional. Regional cooperation for substantial
mutual benefits is achieved. Appropriate institutional mechanisms for water sector management
are essential.

725. Implementation Proposal
5.1 Steps and Strategies
Framework Development Approach• Demonstration design• Introducing legislation – high level coordination body – research promotion –improvement of awareness – private sector involvement
Strategic Approach• Demonstrations – regional and general commonalities• Expansion of AWCI demonstration studies to a whole a region – sharing experiences – aholistic understanding and technology
Technical approach• Monitoring – understanding – climate change assessment including downscaling, bias
correction – detail assessment – model – demonstration – mainstreaming – creation ofregional knowledge
5.2 Additional Resources
Local
Collaborators……………………………
Field
Research
Local
level
Offices of GoN(line agencies),
NGOs/INGOs,
Universities
Students

Operation

Administration

Financial Resources

Human Resources

District/
Regional level
Offices of GoN,
NGOs/INGOs
District/
Regional level
Offices of GoN,
NGOs/INGOs
Private Sectors,
Government
Government
Officers,
Consultants,
NGO/INGOs,
Universities
Students

National

Regional

Worlwide

Universities,
Engineering
Institutes,
Research
Institutions,
National level
GoN
Offices(DoI, DHM etc)
Related
Ministries
of
GoN

AWCI,
Regional
Universities,SARC,
ICIMOD, IWMI

UNU,
UT,
JAXA, NASAAWCI, SARC,
Regional
Universities,
ICIMOD, IWMIAWCI, SARC,
Regional
Universities,
ICIMOD, IWMI
UNDP, DFID
JICA, ADB

UN, UT

Related
Ministries
GoN
Government,
Donor
Agencies,
Government
Officers,
Consultants,
Researchers

of

Human
resources fromcollaborating
countriesUN

WB, IMF, IFC

Human
resources fromcollaborating
countries

5.3 Specific request to GEOSS and to International Community (data/tools accessibility)- Accurate water resources inventory of the country- Enhancement and capacity building- Enhancement of telemetric data network systems- Easy access to the satellite and radar data; reanalysis data and climate projection models &tools- Establishment of Regional data center office73

5.4 Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy• Need training not only for researchers but also practitioners from top level tooperation/technician’s level• Need postgraduate program in collaboration with international educational framework• Need short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modelingskills and medium to long term support to regional resource centers7413. Pakistan
Pakistan’ Climate Profile
Pakistan covers land mass elevated at sea level to very high mountains of Himalaya, Karakoram
and Hindukush experiencing all types of climatic characteristics. Climate change has posedserious challenges to water, energy, food and socio-economic security due to the highly
anomalous climatic pattern embedded by extremes. Following two graphs present the trends ofthermal and precipitation regimes over Pakistan. It is quite clear that temperature has risen
sharply during the last 10 years and precipitation has suffered well marked inter-annual variation.

y = 0.0091x + 18.553
21

Pakistan Average Temperature (1901-2009)

20.5
20

Precipitation (mm)

19.5
19
18.5
18
17.5
17

2006

2001

1996

1991

1986

1981

1976

1971

1966

1961

1956

1951

1946

1941

1936

1931

1926

1921

1916

1911

1906

1901

16.5

Years

st

Summary of Extreme Events experienced in Pakistan during the First Decade of 21 Century isgiven below to understand the gravity of situation and impacts of climate change.










Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008,2009, 2010, 2011
Prolonged Drought 1999-2002
Historic River Flooding 2010 and 2011
Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009
Severe Urban Flooding 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
Heat Waves in Spring 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 (Reduced wheat yield)
Snowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010
Drought at sowing stage 1999-2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012
Sea water intrusion affected 6200 hectares land since 2003.

Future projections of temperature indicate that under optimal climate scenarios more than 4C
stincrease is expected by the end of 21 century. Precipitation amount is not likely to be alteredmuch but increased inter-annual and inter as well as intra-seasonal variability is foreseen.

75

1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues - identify which of the common issues are relevant to your country:
changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessment
intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclonesfrequency of extremes: flood (localized + social)and droughtseasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )Identify available capability/resources in your country – specify clearly
A well designed network of climate and water cycle monitoring is in place. Efforts on improvement of water use
efficiency are in progress considering structural and non-structural measures.
Identify lack of capability – specify clearly, including more details, which capability out of the following ones is
missing: monitoring, modeling, inventory of water resources, understanding planning & managementDescribe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:
landslides / erosion

Land slide hazards are common in winter and summer precipitation seasons especially inmountainous areas hampering road transport for a couple weeks depending upon
weather conditions. Ata Abad dammed lake which blocked Hunza River (a tributary of theIndus) formed in Jan 2010 due to a massive landslide. It has casted huge loss to trade,
tourism, economy on national scale and socio-economic conditions of the divided
population on both ends. There are more than 50 potentially dangerous land slide nodes
identified in HKH region.
-

Sea level rise

Although sea level rise is not that serious problem like island’s submergence forPakistan, but due to increasing level, the saline sea water intrusion to the coastal fertile
land is threat to the livelihood of that marginal farming community.
-

Temperature riseGLOF

Pakistan is at the highest risk of GLOFs. Recently such events have been recorded due
to both accelerated melting of glaciers as well as occurrence of liquid precipitation(rainfall) not only in summer but also in winter.
-

Depletion of ground water

Optimum surface water availability was the limiting factor which has now further
aggegerated due to increased water requirement of agriculture, domestic and industrial
sectors under global warming. It resulted into shift of pressure on ground water which has
been depleting at an alarming rate in the absence of sufficient recharging.
-Hydropower

Power generation is mainly dependent on hydro resources. New water reservoirs havenot been built and capacity of existing two major reservoirs has depleted by about 30% inlast 35 years.
-

Trans-boundary and international coordination (MRC)

Such issues are there with neighbours as all the Pakistani rivers come from their territory.
-

Shifting snow residency, melting period, snow-linebiodiversity

It has been noticed during the last 10 years that snow occurs towards the end of winterseason which melts immediately due to rise in temperature. This reduced snow residency
period does not allow snow to go through metamorphic process for conversion in ice tobecome the part of glacier ice. Further, studies have shown that warming trend iscreeping up to higher elevations, shifting the snowline upward and simultaneously
animals and plant species of vital importance in local ecosystem.

76

2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBAAgriculture:

CC, Water, and Environment
water scarcity and surplus, crop failures  quality of surface andground water (fertilizer, pesticide)

UNDP Climate Change Adaptation Program + Many small
programs on Food Security
Energy:hydropower

Construction of Bash-Diamer Dam started 2011Urban:

water quality, ground water depletion, increase of municipal water
demand, inefficient municipal water management (low tariff, unplanned
conjunctive), decrease of flood plains,None

Ecosystem and Biodiversity:change in flow pattern, water diversion

None

Healthwater bone diseases (dry and wet spells: Malaria, Dengue, flood:
Diarrhea)

Control measures are taken in case of outbreak but nosteps underway to cope with challenges of CCInfrastructure:design and management

None
C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

Through improved seasonal precipitation predictions + Construction of additional reservoirs
for control on surplus flows and release during dry season-



By proper legislation and water pricing-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

A focal agency at national/provincial/local level such as National Meteorological andHydrological Services should be given responsibility where relevant experts may translate
Climate information according to the requirements of each user.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

Keeping in view the ground realities of occurring extremes which have been setting newrecords and future projections, the design criteria should be determined

Through inter-organizational cooperation and exchange-

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Specify needs for your country:
Observations:in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas)

77

PMD being NMHS operates 105 hydromet and met (manned and automatic) stations
throughout the country. Still at low elevation 15% area is not monitored and 75% are thedata gaps in mountainous areas including glaciers and river basins.
-

remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future

Data gaps are filled with satellite information which is not freely available at finer
resolution. Most of the river catchments do not come under radar coverage, at least 5
radars may serve the purpose of flood warning up to some extent.
Data Accesssatellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)

Satellite imageries are accessible coupled with met observations but they are coarse
resolution. There is no software available for satellite data processing and its integration
to Numerical Models.


global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)

ModelsOnly data are accessible for the models available at IPCC website and pseudo free Regional
Models are being used for climate modeling studies. Capacity building in NWP and Climate
Projections is highly desirable.
Management systems
Forecasting
Early Warning
Decision supportNational/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction measures, adaptation
strategies)community-based

All the above management systems are in place but their effectiveness can be optimized throughenhancing their capacity by technological input and training of manpower.
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary
Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:
 We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.
 We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies.
 We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional
conferences/workshops.
 We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

These are just the recommendations to step forward, we strongly support them. Establishment of
the Task Force on Climate Change un Prime Minister of Pakistan is a solid step toward the interagency and inter-disciplinary approach. To achieve the objectives, a lot of expert input and moral
boasting mechanism is required from international community such as AWCI and WCI following
the success story approach and sharing experiences. Frequent visits of leading scientists like
Prof. Toshio Koike have high impact on the minds of planners and policy makers to urg them intranslation of likely impacts in national policies.
2. Implementation proposal
Challenges• Extreme Climate Variability• Winter and summer monsoon variability• Lack of technical and human capacity in NWP and Seasonal Forecast• Flood Forecasting and Warning• Climate Impact Modeling• Reliable and fine Resolution Climate Projections

78

NeedsAs mentioned in opening paragraphs, Pakistan is vulnerable to all sort of climatic problems and it
has been struggling with limited technical and human resources. Immediately water cycle
variability has become a serious concern which has been threatening water, food, energy andsocio-economic security. There is a dire need to address these challenges with an integrated
approach in collaboration with an experienced and competent partner who have already havealready achieved sufficient success in adaptation. Hardware, software and training requirements
are given as under:• High speed cluster computing system• Denser AWS network in glacier zone
• Capacity building in weather and climate modeling• Improved seasonal forecasting techniques• Impact Assessment and modeling• Access to remote sensing data and processing software• International collaboration
Project Proposal
Impact of Climate Change on Water Cycle Variability in Pakistan

79Brief Introduction
Global warming resulting in accelerated melting of HKH glaciers and enhanced monsoon
precipitation variability over time and space coupled to generate highly variable river flows. Upper
Indus Basin comprises 10 sub-basins and fed by more than 5000 glaciers in addition to summer
monsoon at lower reaches of the Indus River System. Surplus amounts of water associated withextreme events caused urban, riverine and flash flooding. Deficient rains promoted prolonged
social, hydrological and agricultural droughts. Sustainable crop production and power generation
have become a challenge due to lack of capacity of prediction with sufficient lead time andaccuracy. Above schematic diagram covers intended framework.
Pakistani Collaborators
Project PI: Dr. Ghulam Rasul
Project Coordinator: Dr. Bashir Ahmad
Participating Scientists: Furrukh Bashir, Waheed Iqbal, S. Ahsan Bukhari, Muhammad Arshad
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators

Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Worldwide
UT, EDH, EV-K2CNR

Collaborators----------Field

Local
KIU, FOCUS,
PMD

National

Regional

PMD, WRRI

Research

PMD, WRRI,
GCISC

PMD, WRRI,GCISC

ICIMOD,CAREERIICIMOD,CAREERI

Operation

PMD, WAPDA

PMD, WAPDA-

UT,EDH, Ev-K2CNR

Administration

PMD

PMD

-

-

Financial res.

PMD, WRRI

PMD, WRRIICIMOD

UT, UNDP, JICA,GEOSS, EDH,
SDC, EV-K2-CNR

Human res.

PMD, WRRI

PMD, WRRI-

UT, EDH, Ev-K2CNR

UT, EDH, Ev-K2CNR

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.






By organizing workshops to disseminate research findings to key stakeholders forsensitization on emerging issue
Arranging meetings/briefings of International experts with members of Prime
Minister’s Task Force on Climate Change
Mass awareness campaign on climate change translating results in local languageand delivery through radio, print and electronic media.
Short video messages by national heroes, athletes, showbiz icons.

80

3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:






Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case
Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function
Data access and information exchange
Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purposeRegional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

After conceiving the project, above requirements will be given in detail
4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:
•
•

•
•
•

Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.
Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).
Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.
Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)
Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

8114. Philippines
1. Issues and Needs
There is an increasing need for a more detailed weather, climate and hydrological information tominimize growing economic losses from natural hazards and the need to adapt to climate change.
These information and services are delivered by the National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs), which in many countries are weak and need considerable support.
A. Current Needs and Challenges• Improvement in Climate and Flood Modeling.
Currently PAGASA does not use computational modeling to understand flood hazard.
• Tools for impact modeling• Vulnerability and Risk assessment tools to various sectors:
Water resources
Agriculture
HealthCoastal•Analytical tools to describe the weather extremes and climate variability•
Application of remotely sensed data in monitoring drought and floods•
Decision support systems as risk management tools especially for the water andagricultural sectors•
Forecasts at different time scales (daily, ten-daily, monthly and seasonal) particularly on
rainfall•Areas susceptible to flooding have changed and floods maps developed with past climate
data lack enough precision to be useful for disaster management under current climate.
B. Available Resources/Capability
a. Network of observing stations
 58 synoptic
 24 agromet 5 Doppler radars (with 5 other existing Conventional radars upgrade to Doppler
capability) More than 100 AWS (several other being installed through several projects)
 2 Marine Meteorological Bouys
 1 Wind Profilers
 More than 100 Automatic Raingaugesb. Human resource Well trained personnel in climate, weather and flood forecasting Expertise and linkages with national, regional and international funding organizations
 In-house training programs for continuous capability building of personnelc.

Infrastructure for climate modeling Cluster Computing system

1. Issues Related to the Climate System
Current Climate Trends in the Philippines
A. Temperature
The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures asshown in Fig.1 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures fromthe 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicates an increase of 0.65 °C oran average of 0.0108 °C per year-increase.

82

Fig.1: Observed annual mean temperature anomalies (1951-2010) in thePhilippines based on 1971-2000 normal values.
In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but
decreasing number of cold days and cool nights as shown in Figures 2 & 3. Both maximum andminimum temperatures are generally getting warmer. Study done by IRRI indicate that a 1 °C risein minimum temperature will result to a 10% decrease in rice production.

Fig.2: Trends in the frequency of days
with minimum temperature below thest
1971-2000 mean 1 percentile.

Fig.3: Trends in the frequency of days
with maximum temperature above theth1971-2000 mean 99 percentile.

83

B. Rainfall
Analysis of extreme rainfall shows increasing trend in terms of frequency and intensity in mostparts of the country as shown in Fig 4 & 5. Only three stations show statistically significant trend.
Increases in rainfall particularly during the rainy season could cause flooding and landslide
especially in areas vulnerable to hydrometeorological hazards.

Fig. 4: Trends in extreme daily rainfall intensity
in the Philippines (1951-2008) compared withthe 1971-2000 mean values. Index used is theamount of rainfall exceeding the top four events
during the year.

Fig.5: Trends of extreme daily rainfall
frequency in the Philippines (1951-2008)
compared with the 1971-2000 mean value.
Index used is the number of days with
rainfall exceeding the top four events during
the year.

Projected Rainfall Change
In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both inquantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts,
particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement.
Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds
and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby,
limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be renderedinsufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affectthe energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will84

need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer
drier periods.
In terms of seasonal rainfall change, generally, there is a substantial spatial difference inthe projected changes in rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in most parts of the Philippines, with
reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer season (MAM) making theusually dry season drier , while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and
Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON seasons, making theseseasons still wetter, and thus with likelihood of both droughts and floods in areas wherethese are projected;
The northeast monsoon (DJF) season rainfall is projected to increase, particularly forareas characterized by Type II climate with potential for flooding enhanced;
During the southwest monsoon season (JJA), larger increases in rainfall is expected inprovinces in Luzon (0.9% to 63%) and Visayas (2% to 22%) but generally decreasing
trends in most of the provinces in Mindanao in 2050;
C. Seasonal climate Pattern
ENSO is one of the major drivers of the climate system. Based on climatological studies, themanifestations of ENSO event in Philippine climate are shown in Table 1. During El Niño, drier
than normal weather condition could last for one or more seasons causing dry spells or evendrought in many parts of the country.
Table 1. Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO
on Philippine climate.
El Niño

La Niña

•Extended dry season•

Short dry season•

Early end of rainy season•

Early onset of rainy season•

Weak monsoon activity•

Strong monsoon activity•

Less number of tropical cyclone•

More number of tropical cyclone•

Above normal sea level pressure•

Below normal sea level pressure•

Above normal air temperatures•

Drier weather conditions•

Wetter weather conditions

In a recent study on the impacts of extreme climate events in major reservoirs in the Philippines
particularly during occurrences of El Niño and La Niña for Angat reservoir for example, water
inflow exhibited peak responses from October to March rather than during the southwest
monsoon months from April to September. This is consistent with the peak response of rainfall to
El Niño / La Niña events during the northeast monsoon months. As indicated in Table 2, reduction
during El Niño and increase during La Niña to the inflow, amounts to about 20 % of their historical
average values. In extreme cases seasonal inflow reduction could even reach to more than 50 %of the historical average inflow causing disastrous impacts on the urban water supply for Metro
Manila due to the water shortages in the Angat reservoir (Table 3).

85

Table 2. Departure (%) of Angat seasonal inflow from the normal during El Niño and La
Niña events
SeasonSouthwest
Monsoon(AprilSeptember)
Northeast
Monsoon(OctoberMarch)

El Niño
Inflow
Departure(mcm)

La Niña
Inflow
Departure(mcm)

NormalInflow802.33.5 %777.47-3.58%

806.35866.35-19.85%1334.89+19.99%1087.1

Table 3. Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968-1998) for Angat
reservoir in Luzon during selected El Niño years (million cubic meters).
1991-1992
1997-1998
Month
ActualNormal% ofActualNormal% ofNormalNormalOctober

68.0

304

22

90.2

304

30

November

181.0

291

62

43.4

291

15

December

113.0

211

53

86.9

211

41

January

62.0

101

61

52.0

101

51

February

29.0

57

51

28.0

57

49

March
Total

15.0
468.0

51
1015

29
46

20.9
321.4

51
1015

41
31.6

86

15. Sri Lanka
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues - identify which of the common issues are relevant to your country:
changes in climate and consequences – quantitative assessment
intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclonesfrequency of extremes: flood (localized + social) and droughtseasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )Identify available capability/resources in your country –Water resources rainfall-runoff modeling, limited capability of climate change data
downscaling, availability of rainfall records for more than a century-

Identify lack of capability –Climate change impact monitoring, modeling
Planning of adaptation strategiesDescribe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:
landslides / erosion

Central part of the island which is mountainous receives high intensity rainfalls, annual
rainfall spatially ranges from 2500-6000 mm. Landslides, slope failures floods areexperienced.
-

Hydropower

Hydropower contributes to more than 50% of the power requirement. Run-of-the riverhydropower stations are specially affected by the rainfall variations and prolonged
droughts have increased the low flow periods.

2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBA
Agriculture:

CC, Water, and Environment
Number of irrigation projects are carried out including thesmall scale village reservoir centered irrigation projects.
Use of pesticides has caused ground water pollution.

Energy:hydropower development projects are encouraged by thegovernment. A large number of mini hydropower schemes
are being developed.

Urban:

Water supply development, sewage systems
developments are being carried out.
Urban drainage systems are upgraded to convey the storm
water generated by intense rainfalls.



Healthdry and wet spells have increase waterborne deceases
such as Dengue fewerInfrastructure:

the development of flood mitigation structures, watersupply schemes are carried out

87

C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:
How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

Seasonal variability of water resources is faced by strengthening of the storage systems.
Sri Lanka has a large number of small reservoirs, improvement of scattered storages isrequired. Variation of crops considering seasonal variations of rainfall need to be adopted-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

The central committee representing each of the sector require to prepare guidelines forsharing water. Decisions need to be take at regular meetings assessing the requirement
at each sector-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

A central secretariat capable of providing such climate information need to bestrengthened, established with necessary resources.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

Designs based on historic records are not correct/sufficient due to climate change. New
guidelines need to be introduced based on climate change impact predictions-

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

Sharing data through agreements for mutual benefits
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Specify needs for your country:
Observations:in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas)

expanding and modernizing the data acquisition systems is required, this include setting
up of new stations for recording high resolution data, wireless transfer to central
locations, etc.
-

remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future

remote sensing data acquisition systems are not available


Data Accesssatellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data)

Access to real time data is required
 global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection) Limited to accessavailable through internet sourcesModelsAvailability of models, Training / development of capability of using new models that use
available dataManagement systems
Forecasting & Early Warning -modern tools for rainfall forecasting and training for interpretation of available information-

Decision supportNational/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction measures, adaptation
strategies)community-based
Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences
Capacity building – describe in other section (Part 2: Implementation Proposal)

4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary
Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:88

We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the
stakeholders through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.

The government agencies responsible for hydrological/ meteorological data , make thedata available to any party for a payment. Some data are published at the end of the year
and made available to line agencies. A system for real time sharing of data would be
useful.


We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels
by involving academia and civil societies.

The recent advancements in technologies, use of data effectively, for social benefits canbe brought to implementation only if researchers/academia also involved in decision
making process. Establishment of advisory panels/ consultative committees withrepresentations from experts in relevant areas at national level would be helpfulWe need to implement
conferences/workshops.

demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional

The dissemination of knowledge is done through annual seminars/sessions of various
professional organizations. These activities need to be strengthen through keynote
lectures by experts local/international.


We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge andtechnical standards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

Regular verification of data acquisition centers is done by responsible agencies.
Improvement to quality of data through calibrations of equipments, introducing of modern
equipment, training the data recorders/processors need to be done. Data providing
institution need to be accredited.
2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:
Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your country
Demonstration design  infrastructure integrityIntroducing legislationhigh level coordination bodyresearch promotionImprovement of awarenessprivate
sector involvement

Establishment of high level of an apex body with the permanent Secretaries of the ministries ofwater resources and water nexus, higher education and research, experts in water resources
including researchers, international experts to identify country needs and develop project
proposals with a mission. WCI/AWCI can arrange advisory panels as appropriate. Appropriate
panel to be formed for each project including private sector as appropriate. The apex body will be
responsible to the ministerial panel .
The above issues and needs to be addressed by different project developed by the ministries andsubmitted to the panel.
Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy and feasibility, benefits toother sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting with existing inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality

Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences a holistic understanding
and technology.

There must be public awareness and promotion for the positive side and short-term and longterm gain from the projects through success stories from Sri Lanka and other countries. AWCI
could assist in this through its demonstration projects.
The benefits of the activities of various government and private organizations through the apex
body and its identified projects have to be showcased.
Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country
MonitoringunderstandingClimate change assessment including downscaling, bias correctiondetailassessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation of regional knowledge

89Technical support for the projects to be arranged through training and providing models and databy the WCI/AWCI, GEOSS and other international organizations.
2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators


Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Collaborators----------Field

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Research

University of
Peradeniya,
Institute ofFundamental
StudiesNational Science
Foundation

AIT, UNU,ICHARM, Univ of
Tokyo

IWMI
UNESCHO-IHE

FAO

WB, ADB

AIT

AIT,
UNU,
ICHARM

Operation

Administration

DisasterManagement
CentreFinancial res.

Human res.

Universities

Department of
Irrigation
Dept ofMeteorology
Dept of
Agriculture
Apex body to beformedMinistry of Water
Resources
Ministry of Water
Resources
National Science
Foundation,
National
research Council
Ministry of Water
Resources

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

The ministries dealing with water nexus to identify the issues related to water sources andthe impact of climate change on the nexus. Present the importance of addressing the issues
to convince the government on the importance.
Identify ways to overcome the negative impacts and prioritize the projects at each ministry.
Submit strategies to secure funds and cooperation.
3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:






Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case
Data request function responding to new needs – what kind of function
Data access and information exchange
Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purposeRegional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office

The availability of real time remote sensing data available with developed nations has to beaccessible at a minimum cost for researchers in developing countries at through regional centres.
To popularize the data usage, regular updates of available data and demonstration of use of such90

data for specific purposes need to be publicized through bulletins accessible to university
students researchers.
4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country

Training of a large number of research officers in government agencies on climate change impact
interpretation and adaptation, conjunctive use of water is important- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:•
Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.

Government trains the officers through trainings provided by various international programmes
carried out by international donor agencies•

Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).

University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka is a member in UN_CECAR programme and capacity
development in climate change adaptation through workshops, postgraduate training are carriedout. Staff and students carry out joint research in climate change adaptation with UNU
researchers. These activities need to be expanded.
•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.

Training workshops on climate data downscaling and the use for prediction on future water nexus
areas through models, long term support through follow up seminars•

Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)

International links to research centres and universities would help to sustain the knowledge.
Postgraduate programmes on related areas and research in related topics should be supportedby the regional centres•

Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

Sustainable development of expertise in countries through collaborative research with universities,
research organizations.
Universities (University of Peradeniya), Department of Irrigation, Meteorology, Central
Engineering Consultancy Bureau(CECB)

91

16. Thailand
1. Issues and need
• Water-related disasters are currently the extreme issues that trend to increase in terms ofareal extension, frequency and severity in global regions. These disasters seriously affect onwater resource, environment and livelihood issues and losses in most countries including
Thailand.
 intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclones
 frequency of extremes: flood (localized + social)and drought seasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )Each year Thailand has to face with the natural disasters that cause economic losses andcasualties so far while the natural hazards still have trend to increase higher in severity and scale
since the climate change.
The lack of capability: climate change assessment and adaptation at river basin scale/ regional
scale.
Late of the year 2011 Thailand confronted with the immense inundation that covered the area of
63 provinces (from all 77 provinces of the country) with 12.8 million sufferers, 698 casualties and3 losts. More than 60 million acres of agricultural areas were damaged, most of industrial estatesin central part of the country were flooded and stopped with the whole economic losses estimatedas 45,300 million $.
At the critical situation, flood monitoring, forecasting and early warning systems were all failed,the administration and management systems were disabled and 2,000,000 workers of labor
sector immediately became unemployed and lose the hope for their future because the industrial
sector had been paralysed for almost 6 months.
Researching for sustainable disaster management could be one of the way out of this disasters
and their results. We have to study and learn first to understand all behaviors and changes ofnatural sources and phenomena through appropriate approaches and tools, globally for climatechange and regionally and locally for rainfall, runoff and groundwater in both upstream anddownstream areas …to be able to create the models for flood or drought predicting, forecastingand early warning systems. However the study needs to classify physical and biologicalcharacteristics of each basin in each region with the public participation as the main mechanicalprocess to move forward to strategic management about disasters particularly flash flood andlandslide in Thailand.

Figure 1 : Mae Wang River Basin Project by GEOSS in Chiang Mai
province, northern Thailand.

92

Mae Wang River (Figure 1) in Chiang Mai province is one of the tributaries of Ping River, The
Mae Wang Basin regarded as the high potential basin for meteo-hydrological research anddemonstration model of upstream flood and landslide disasters management project of thenorthern region. It has been studied for flood monitoring system with water levels correlation
between 2 station in GAME-T research and the first phase of GEOSS research (Figure 2),
besides there are available network of 4 automatic raingauges and water level survey stations
already installed. So this basin is suitable for carry on and implement the project for the best
appropriate and efficient model designed for flash flood and landslide early warning system.

Figure 2 : flood monitoring system with water levels
corelation between 2 station in GAME-T research andthe first phase of GEOSS research

2. implementation proposal :By the reasons above we propose the research project of Mae Wang Basin as “Flood andLandslide Disaster Management System with Public Participation Model” as 4 activities designed
as follow:
Activity 1 : Finding the appropriate type of observation stations, data survey- collection and report
methods with geoinformatic and disaster management system preparing for communities.
Activity 2 : Rainfall analysis and runoff yield assess by satellite images model.
Activity 3 : Real-time flood and landslide assessment model for upstream area
Activity 4 : Symbolic disaster warning system, technics and steps of warning for public sector.
Details
Activity 1: Method
Finding the appropriate type of observation stations, data survey- collection and report methods
with geoinformatic and disaster management system preparing for communities.
1. Finding the appropriate locations for raingauge and runoff stations which suitable for physicalcharacteristic of basin and region and consistent with the need of communities.
2. Finding the appropriate data survey technique or tools and the data transfering anddissemination system among basins or organizations.
3. Prepare geoinformatic system by define the real altitude reference, data account ofvulnerable area residents such as names, addresses, status of family membership, phone
numbers, idenity details such as aged people, disables, chronic illness etc.
4. Personnel training and workshop about system application skill for public sector especiallylocal administrators.

93

Activity 2: Method
Rainfall analysis and runoff yield assess by satellite images model.
1. Study and try available models both in the country and international for rainfall upstream andrunoff yield assessment.
2. Study and analyse rainfall and its distribution by satellite images
Activity 3: Method
Real-time flood and landslide estimate model for upstream area
1. Develop the most appropriate and accurate model for real-time estimating the possibility of
upstream flood and landslide.
2. Test and adjust the model to be applied for another basins.
Activity 4: Method
Symbolic disaster warning system, techniques and steps of warning for public sector.
1. Study to manage symbolic warning materials, communication and dissemination procedure,technique and pattern of public relations, prepare daily report and simplified warning
massage for local people.
2. Disaster prediction, forecast and warning training for public sector by using technology andgeoinformatic system.
3. Available Resources/Capability
1.
2.
3.
4.

Available automatic meteo-hydrological observation stations installed by GEOSS-1 project.
Previous collected meteo-hydrological data of Mae Wang Basin by involved authorities.
Data collected by GAME-T and GAME-C research projects
General data of physical, socio-economic of the flooded area of Mae Wang Basin.

Additional resources-suggestion of potential collaborators
Collaborators
Local
National
Field
Research
Operation
Administration
Financial res.
NRCT/
Human res.
Thada
Sukhapunnaphan
Sutep Junkhiaw

Regional

Worldwide

Need of research group (Thailand)
1. Efficient early warning system consists of data system, prediction and forecast system
obtained from accurate rainfall data of the highland or mountainous upstream area.
2. Flood and landslide predicting and forecasting model for local area not for general area or for
the whole major basin.
3. Data access, data interpretation and data dissemination systems for public sector particularly
for local administrations which could be able to access and manage the system bythemselves.

9417. Uzbekistan
1. Issues and Needs
A characteristic feature of mountain areas of Central Asia and neighbouring countries is theincreasing number of floods and water-related risks, particularly in a global climate change
phenomena. Every year floods enormous economic and social damage, often leading to massive
loss of human life. Extreme weather events in Asia this is the most common causes of floods andother water-related risks (mudslides, landslides, and glacial advances dammed lakes). The
combination of extreme weather events is particularly dangerous. The sharp rise in the melting
snow and glaciers, combined with intense rainfall.
The vast majority of floods and water-related risks are of a transboundary nature. Floods,
mudslides, breakthroughs dammed lakes are often formed on the territory of one country, butdamage are done to neighbouring countries. In this case, the transboundary nature of the impact
is difficult to predict, control and management, as countries have different systems for monitoring
hazardous hydrological phenomena. This disagreement is especially evident in varying degrees
of technical and technological equipment and control systems of hazardous hydrologicalphenomena. Not all countries have access to operational satellite data, which is the most modern
and responsive source of information for timely monitoring and early warning systems.
Hazardous Climatic Phenomena and Risk Management Opportunities in Uzbekistan
Global warming facilitates increase of periodicity of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorologicalphenomena. Uzbekistan is the most vulnerable to such phenomena as droughts, hightemperatures, heavy precipitation, mudflows, floods and avalanche.
High country's vulnerability to the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena causes
governmental response on population protection from extreme situations associated withmudflows, floods, landslides and their effects mitigation. The National hydrometeorologicalservice (NHMS) of Uzbekistan provides forecasts and warnings; Ministry for Extreme Situations is
operating in close coordination with local authorities.
Practice shows that extreme natural phenomena regularly take place, but their effects degree
entirely depends on extent of country or certain region preparedness for countering the natural
disasters. In this context, the change of natural risks on the territory of Uzbekistan associated withongoing Climate Change has to be evaluated.
Hazardous Hydrometeorological Phenomena
Mudflows and floods. All rivers in Uzbekistan, including temporal water streams within themountains and foothills are hazardous in terms of mudflows. The territories potentially vulnerable
to the risk amount about 12% of the country space, with population at least 4 million people.
While development of the piedmont and low mountain territories this share of population isincreasing. The lower areas of the river valleys where the mudflow mass deposits occur are thehigh risk areas of mudflows and floods.
On the average for Uzbekistan rivers, 22 mudflows a year arc, they frequently cause the tragic
consequences. Intensive rains as well as inrush of the highland and moraine lakes, frequently
due to intensive snowmelt are responsible for the mudflow formation. Period of the highest
mudflow risk is March-July (96% of total mudflow). Frequently, mud How formation has
transboundary nature, and mudflow origin takes place on the territory of the cross-bordercountries, and adverse effects appear on the territory of Uzbekistan.
Key factors of mudflow activity intensification in line with the Climate Scenarios:• rainfall increase and their variability enhancement;• increase of the daily rainfall peaks;• increase of the rain precipitation share;

95

•
•

snowmelt intensification;rain flood overlapping over the melting one.

For the Climate Change impact assessment statistical approach was applied. Analysis shows thataround 90% of the mudflows arc formed with the shower involvement. The daily peak ofprecipitation, mean annual number of rains, quintiles of daily precipitation and mudflow periodicity
were selected as the key indicators. Assessment of the changes of the rain-related mudflow
periodicity for 29 rivers with the longest observation periods was made on the basis of statisticaldependences among selected indicators.
Assessment demonstrated that change of the mudflow risk extent for various altitudinal zones will
occur in line with the values of the rainfall change. Numeric evaluations of the rain flood peak(lows 1%-occurrence were made with application the methods developed for the Central Asian
region. Calculations illustrated increase of the peak flows of the rain and caused by them the
mudflow floods. Small rivers of the low mountain area of Uzbekistan are the most vulnerable ones,
where the mudflow formation occurs due to the rare but very intensive rains.
In entire Uzbekistan increase of the mudflow number can be expected by 2030-2050 to 19-24%
compared to the current situation, along with the lower increase by 2080 (12-13%). Increase ofme mudflow risk period is also expected.
Therefore, the future risks from the mudflow activity on Uzbekistan rivers will increase. Specificdanger represent the river plain floods and low river terraces, with potential bank destruction,
stream-way deformation, mudflow mass deposit, block appearance and increase of the flood level.
Outburst risk lakes. Particular catastrophic mud flows are originated when the highland lakes
outburst. Territory of Uzbekistan is threatened with 271 lakes of various origins, and their majority
is located outside Republic. The largest one - Sarez Lake located in Tajikistan, in the central partof Murgab River (Amudarya River Basin).
In increased water availability years the monitoring of the highland periglacial and rock-dammedlakes is being conducted. Aerial visual observations are carried out in the period of the maximal
water mass accumulation in the lakes, and the field ones (Ikhnach and Shovurkul lakes) - in theoutburst risky period. Data on the lakes condition are delivered to the MES of Uzbekistan and theother concerned organizations. However, currently, the possibility of aerial visual observations of
the outburst risky lakes located outside the Republic depends on the cross-border states(Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).
Climate Change impact assessment on the outburst risky lakes showed that increase of the airtemperatures in the mountainous area and intensification of the rainfall variability would cause
increase of altitudinal limit of the lakes existence, probability of the new lakes formation in thearea of the glacial recession will increase along with their outburst danger. In general, themudflow risk from the lake outburst in the upper mountains will grow.
Measures on mitigation the adverse effects of the floods, mudflows and avalanche arc split into
three types:
1. Organizational measures:• Ensuring protection measures when construction the sites in the mudflow and avalanchehazardous areas;• development of monitoring of the avalanche, mudflows and outburst risky lakes;• improvement of information warning system, including interstate one, on potential
mudflow and avalanche hazard.
2. Technical measures:• protection of the residence and sites from the mudflows and avalanche with the help ofhydro technical and avalanche-protection constructions (debris basins, mudflow flumes,
tunnels, avalanche-protection galleries, etc.) in the most risky regions;

96

•
•

preventive avalanche reliese;
warning systems introduction.

3. Exploration and plans:• development of the large-scale maps of the avalanche and mudflow hazard;• development/updating of recommendations for the planning institutions and decision
makers;• improvement of the forecast techniques of the hazardous phenomena and warning
systems;• improvement of insurance system.
Existing strategy and specific activities on reducing the risk of the mudflow and avalanche hazard
are specified in the Decree by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan of February 9, 2006
"On the high priority measures on protection the population and territories from extreme situations
associated with the mudflow-flood and landslide phenomena as well as on their consequences
liquidation".
Climate Risk Management
The observations show that in Uzbekistan due to the Climate Change increase of periodicity of
the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena is expected. The Government, state,
professional and commercial organizations have to receive the full-scale information on possibility
and necessity of mitigation the adverse after-effects of the hazardous phenomena on economy,
environment and human health.
The early population warning will reduce vulnerability via implementation of efficient measures on
reduction the risk of hazardous phenomena. The National hydrometeorological service ofUzbekistan is responsible for providing the forecast and climatic information, the data on thehazardous phenomena and ensures their prevention and spread.
Monitoring of the areas with the high danger of the hydrometeorological phenomena. Currently,
NHMS of Uzbekistan is implementing the measures focused on the climate risk management maintenance and publication of the state cadastres (climatic, water cadastres and hazardous
phenomena).
The Annual publication “State cadastre of the areas with the high natural danger”. Section: Highrisk areas in terms of hydrometeorological phenomena" is being issued since 2006 in Uzbekistan
for the monitoring of the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, assessment of their trends
and consequences [6].
This cadastre comprises the data on extreme air temperatures, frosts, heavy precipitation, strong
wind, air and hydrological drought, floods, water logging, occurred mudflows and avalanching.
This publication comprises also the information on material damage and the other adverse
consequences due to the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena recorded on the territory of
Uzbekistan during the recent year. This cadastre maintenance will enable making well-groundeddecisions when design, construction works implementation, tourism planning and more rational
allocation of the agricultural crops cultivation.
Improvement of forecasting and servicing on the basis of the monitoring and scientific research
expansion and improvement is the primary strategy enabling climate risk management andmitigation of after-effects of the climate-related hazardous phenomena.
More reliable short-term hydrometeorological forecasts for agriculture may assist in on-line water
management and improve the efficiency of irrigation water use, and this is one of the key
measures of adaptation to the arid climatic conditions.

97

Agriculture and water management are specifically vulnerable to the Climate Change caprices. In
case of the large-scale droughts (combination of abnormal hot weather conditions in vegetation
period with the water resource deficiency) - expansive areas are vulnerable to the risk of the crop
failure, and this, ultimately, affects the food security of the country.
Early warning system is focused on the early warning on expected drought in order to enable
correcting the management of available water resources, including operation mode of the key
reservoirs. Local authorities may activate the relevant programs of the effect mitigation.
Development and introduction of these systems, including the relevant action plans - is thesecond strategy of the climatic risk management.
Measure enabling improvement of the climatic risk management are associated with capacity
building of all NHMS of the region with development of research applying the new forecasting
technologies and techniques as well as active exploration of the hydrometeorological processes,with development of information dissemination system.
Specific needs of the capacity building are listed below.
• Development of above-ground system of hydrometeorological surveillance, including thearea of the outflow formation located in the cross-border Republics.
• Expansion the network of specialized avalanche stations, establishment of glaciologicalstations.
• Application and development remote monitoring techniques.
• Renewal of observations over the upper atmosphere in Uzbekistan.
• Improvement of the forecast methods of the weather and hazardous phenomena.
• Active exploration on the hazardous hydrometeorological processes and phenomena.
2. Available Resources/Capability
The Observation Network, functioning on the territory of the Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) has been developed on the basis of climatic characteristic
variability and appeals of economic organizations, ignoring the borders of the country.
Maximum number of hydrometeorological stations and posts were established in 1980-s.
Subsequently, number of points and observation extent was decreased (Table 1). However, evenin the period of the most intensive development the observation network of Uzbekistan, like thosein the Republics of the region, was not enough dense.
Table 1 Change of Number of Hydrometeorological Observation Points
Number of Observation Points

Data % for 1985

Country / Region
1985

1995

2005

1995

2005

Hydrological posts
Uzbekistan

155

128

130

83

84

Central Asia

559

399

277

72

50

Meteorological Stations
Uzbekistan

93

76

78

82

84

Central Asia

361

282

272

78

75

Owing to establishment of the National hydro-meteorological agencies (NHMA) in the Central
Asian states and Kazakhstan, part of hydrological stations and posts, within the jurisdiction of
NHMA of Uzbekistan, were transferred to NHMA of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. That98

is why for the period 1991-1998 the observation network of Uzbekistan decreased. Thus,
compared to the middle of 1980-s the number of hydrological and meteorological points ofobservation decreased up to 16%. To the present moment the situation with hydrometeorologicalpoints of observation in Uzbekistan has become stable, but is still complicated.
NHMA of Uzbekistan faces difficulties in its efforts to solve tasks on provision of state
management organs and branches of economy with the information on the state of naturalenvironment and climate, actual and solicited changes of hydro-meteorological conditions andstate of the natural environment, causes of these changes, submitting of extraordinary
information in force-majeure circumstances.
Eight posts in Amudarya upper waters and 9 posts in Amudarya upper water, within thejurisdiction of NHMA of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan ceased supply of operational hydrologicalinformation. Some meteorological stations on the Aral Sea and in the mountainous areas of
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were closed. The situation with snow-metering observations in themountains, essential for assessment of water resources of the region, worsened and is poor now
and for the future perspective (Table 2).
Especially disastrous situation occurred regarding the observations on small rivers. Observations
over the regime of dried rivers in low mountain zones are not carried out, and such a situation isobserved in the majority of small rivers. At the same time, these rivers are good indicators ofclimatic and anthropogenic changes.
Table 2 Change of Number of Specialized Observation Points in Uzbekistan

Years

1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005

Actinometric
Stations

7
7
7
7
6
6
6

Agrometeorologicalstations
posts
68
74
77
66
60
62
61

10
17
28
32
26
26
30

Evaporationfrom water
surface
22
22
23
25
20
16
10

Observation over snow coveron riverbasins
13
11
5
3
3
2
2

groundpoints
161
121
41
31
22
12
12

aero-visual
points
141
244
282
302
233
153
138

NHMA of Uzbekistan does not have enough funds for construction and repairing of post devices
on hydrometric posts and for maintaining them in a due working state. Annually only part of posts
are repaired, which demand capital or preventive repair. Therefore, in result, there is urgent needin undertaking measures directed to improving the situation, and this is out of power of any stateof the Central Asian region. So, it is necessary to unite the efforts and power, supported by theinternational community aid.
Information needs and gaps
1. Disadvantages ground monitoring network
In Central Asia, is insufficiently developed system of ground observation network of hydrologicalobjects that pose a threat, especially this fact is important to consider the cross-border effects ofhazardous hydrological phenomena. As indicated above, the breakthrough of glacial lakes, theoccurrences of mudflow occur in one country, but the effect is manifested in the neighbouring
countries and leads to significant damage. At the same time to monitor the country is not
economically profitable, since the observing system expensive.

99

In this regard, it needs to develop monitoring systems, having a structure of cooperation between
the countries. In this regard, regional cooperation under the umbrella of internationalorganizations is of great perspective and desperately needed.
2. Communication links between the countries
In Central Asian countries are now the communication system is based on telephonetransmission lines. In this case, the system alerts when a hazard is too slow relative to place
hazards. There is great risk that the alert system using a telephone connection may be too late
for timely action. Moreover, the very phone lines may be disrupted as a result of the impact
hazard. In this regard, it is imperative to establish exchange of information through the satellite
system of information exchange with the study of technical issues.
Be taken into account language barriers between countries. Information exchange systemshould be a unified system of coding and common symbols to enhance the efficiency in
information sharing. For damage assessment and appropriate action is necessary to develop
warning systems through the Internet line as a network. In this case, the information will be
distributed even when breaking a line.
3. High resolution satellite images with real time access
In Central Asia there are many potentially dangerous and developing objects - glacial lakes andoutbreaking lakes, and monitoring are difficult because of inaccessibility. Objects themselves areoften small in size but have an enormous potential threat in the event of their destruction.
Dammed lakes have a dynamic character in time.
In the single case dammed lake has its own dynamics as changes in volume and correspondingarea of the mirror. There are also systems moraine lakes formed by large glaciers. Mode ofexistence of such a system of lakes depends on the regime of the glacier. In this case, thesystem of lakes may change dynamically over time. Some lakes can disappear in consequenceof the increased filtration through the detrital material, and other Lake melt water can accumulate
with the subsequent risk of a breakthrough. System monitoring of glacial lakes to the Central
Asian countries need access to high resolution satellite images for early prediction of the riskof a dangerous situation. Satellite imagery has the advantage that they can be used to monitor
hazards to neighbouring countries.
Priority needs at the Subregional level (two or more countries) for addressing common
problems.
The main priorities between the countries are the rapid exchange of information on the origin anddevelopment of emergency situations using information-switching technology.
Example - the existence of enclaves in the Fergana Valley. For example Shakhimardan River Zone of the formation of glacial lakes located on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, downstream is theterritory of Uzbekistan, on the river bed Shakhimardan again passes through the territory of
Kyrgyzstan and then re-channels the river runs into the territory of Uzbekistan. Thus the impact of
one process is at risk for the two countries simultaneously.
Breakthrough of the slide-rock Sarez Lake, located on the territory of Tajikistan is potentially
dangerous not only for Tajikistan but also for Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Installation of the system for exchange of operational information between countries on the basisof new technologies to reduce the risk of exposure to hazardous processes.
Synopsis of priority needs of Uzbekistan national and Sub regional levels
Geterogeneity of huge amount to information and diversity of interrelations between scientific,
economic, social and political issues determine challenges and gaps in process of receiving ofexact and internationally comparable data.

100

In Uzbekistan, the basic source of indices is official state statistics, the area facing hindrances as
to providing time continuity and stability of key indices statistical data. There occurs an urgent
need in improving and expanding of statistical account of such indices as GDP in internationallycomparable prices, GPD by the parity of purchasing power; population mortality from deceases,
which directly or indirectly relate to climatic factors etc.
It is necessary that statistics register annual data on damage caused to agricultural production by
negative effect of extreme weather conditions; statistical reporting should be provided on tourist
sector development; access should be granted to data on registration of individual vehicles etc.
What would be the affect of Climate Change in the nearest future to the environment andeconomy, infrastructure, and health in Uzbekistan? What adaptation measures are to be taken
first of all upon occurrence of dangerous changes in the environment? This depends on the scaleof impact and the adaptation capacity of the environment, socioeconomic sectors and populationof the country. Answers to these questions depend on the degree of elaboration of knowledge of
all socio-economic sectors.
The basis for examination and scientifically substantiated assessment of Climate Change impact
is represented, first of all, by the adequacy of the system of climate observation (correspondence
to principles of climate monitoring) and second, by presence of "non-climatic" socio-economic
data, upon which any sectoral assessment and analysis of adaptation measures are based. Often
impact of Climate Change is not unequivocal, that is why before undertaking an adaptation
measure it is necessary to assess potential damage from Climate Change and to correlate it to
the cost of development and implementation of such a measure. So, submission of data on thecurrent and future damages from Climate Change in diverse socio-economic sectors is an
obligatory condition for approving a strategy of adaptation to Climate Change.
Systematic Climate Observations. To receive authentic data on climate it is necessary to createan adequate system of observation and data collection. In Uzbekistan, there is the basis for
performing the Convention
obligations
relatedtosystematic observation, however,supplementary development of capacity (materials and technical support, improvement ofmanagement, in-service training of experts) is needed.
Gaps and Seeds. Economic reasons, that caused shrinking of the observation network, affected
provision of the hydro-meteorological network with devices, gauges and equipment while
Uzbekistan lacks sufficient funds for re-organization and development of the network. First of all,it is necessary to restore observations in agrologic stations, to improve technologies of
information collection and storing, and in separate cases - to save data, and to establish databases, appropriate to the modern requirements, including easing of access to information.
It is necessary to synchronize diverse international initiatives on strengthening of observation
networks and on developing of interrelation between the states of the region. The developed
Regional Plan of Action on Global System of Climate Observation (GSCO) for Central Asia
regarding restoration of the work of high-mountain stations in the Aral Sea basin actually still
remains only written on paper. Efficient forecasting of run-off of Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers
lacks hydro-meteorological information from formation zone, as well an adequate long-term
assessment of water resources considering Climate Change. Exchange of regional data andhistorical observation series between the neighboring countries faces some difficulties.
It is necessary to establish regional climatic database, including long-term (not less than 30
years) homogeneous series of observation of different parameters (meteorological, hydrological,
and glaciological) for the whole basin of the Aral Sea. The objective for establishment of suchdatabase is revealing of climatic changes, profound assessments of impacts for both, the whole
region, and for separate stales, provinces, geographic districts, river basins.

101Son-climatic Data" (socio-economic data, data on the state of environment). Shortage andinaccessibility of authentic socio-economic data from diverse sectors made it difficult to make anassessment on vulnerability to Climate Change and analysis of adaptation measures.
In process of vulnerability assessment, difficulties were faced relating to the socio-economic datain the following sectors/spheres: development of socioeconomic scenarios, water resources in thezone of run-off distribution, agriculture, eco-systems, population health, dangerous and extreme
phenomena related to the climate.
Practically in every sector information was deficient, data on economic damage was actuallyabsent. Moreover, vulnerability indices and criteria have not been sufficiently developed, both,
sector based and integrated ones, which did not permit to perform a complete analysis andassessment of adaptation measures.
Examination and assessment of "impact-reaction-damage-selection of measures" sequence
should be based upon factual data, differentiated by the sectors, territories, separate natural andanthropogenic objects. In view of this, it is necessary to develop recommendations, schemes
and mechanisms of submission of socio-economic data, essential for assessment of Climate
Change impact, including information on economic damages from dangerous natural calamities
to Uzgidromet, an organization responsible for fulfilling of commitments under the Framework
Convention.
Development and introduction of international standards for statistical reports taking into accountassessment requirements will allow to assess vulnerability of Uzbek economic sectors to Climate
Change in a more reliable and authentic way and to develop more convincing adaptation
measures.
In Uzbekistan, internal sources for research funding are insufficient, and implementation ofmajority of international projects do not imply long-term support of research activities.
However, research works on issues of Climate Change are essential to solve a lot of tasks:• analysis of social, ecological, and economic consequences of Climate Change; risks
assessment;• distribution of continuously updated information on issues of Climate Change;• development and implementation of early-warning system to forecast dangerous
calamities, related to climate (draughts, thermal waves etc.);• development of ecological education programs to involve people in solving of the
problems of Climate Change, and development of appropriate social behavior;• maintaining of specialized training on he appropriate
level(ecological,hydro-meteorological, agro-climatic etc.);• determination of costs and benefits of potential measures, development of adaptation
projects, and involvement of additional resources through international cooperation.
Droughts. The assessment of vulnerability and analysis of adaptation measures to suchincreasingly frequent phenomenon in Uzbekistan as drought have demonstrated that the major
gap in this area is lack of information on its impact on socio-economic aspect due to the fact thatno large-scale and catastrophic drought have been observed in Uzbekistan. Periodical seasonaldrought has been mitigated through regional water resources management in the interest ofirrigation in the lower reaches of the rivers. However, increasing range of fluctuation of
precipitation during the last decades, intensive warming, increased water consumption andchange in the functioning regime of water reservoirs in the riverheads of the Syrdarya andAmudarya Rivers (the priority was given to the Energy Sector), have significantly increased thedrought risk, especially in the lower reaches of the Amudarya River Basin. The drought of 20002001 became an evident example of the phenomenon.
The main conclusion made as a result of vulnerability assessment is that the phenomena such as
drought of 2000-2001 will occur more frequently with prolonged duration. In this regards, the102

following questions come up: what is the size of the territory that the phenomenon could affect;
what would the consequences be; what measures arc required for mitigation of consequences?
In order to answer these questions, it is required to expand the hydrometeorological monitoring,
conduct research in relevant fields and develop organizational measures. The major needs in thecapacity building of research that arc directly related to impact assessment and adaptation
measures include:• improving hydrometeorological monitoring;• improving droughts forecast methods;• conducting socio-economic consequences assessment with differentiated territory
information;• developing programs and plans of action aimed at drought prevention and risk reduction
for agricultural sector (ensuring preparedness for extraordinary situations liquidation,mechanisms of information dissemination on drought warning in the provinces,
population and administrative organs preparedness); and• developing the drought early warning system;• insuring the drought consequences.
There is a need for institutional strengthening -establishment and functioning of the droughtmonitoring centre; and political measures -identifying the joint trans bound a ry concept of water
use in the conditions of the expected drought on the regional level and improving water resources
monitoring.
Freshets and torrents. According to conducted assessment, due to the Climate Change, it isexpected thai the number of events will increase while the duration of hazardous periods will
extend. The bottom lands of the river and low river terraces are especially dangerous due to thepossibility of shores destruction, rivers beds deformation, mudhow mass deposit and occurring ofgorge phenomenon.
Outburst risky lakes. Currently. 271 lakes of various origins threaten the territory of Uzbekistan.
The largest out of them is the Sarez Lake. Due to warming, the mudflow hazard after lake
outburst in the upper mountainous zones increase.
Avalanches. On the average, according to conducted assessments, the avalanche periodicity in
Uzbekistan and avalanche risk period duration due to the Climate Change will have the minor
decrease by 2050, which means that the avalanche risk remains.
Risks depend on probability of the hazardous phenomena, their demonstration extent, territories
where they are observed, available sites and population size in each hazardous region. Whendevelopment the mountainous areas the natural risks associated with the mudflows and snowslides increase. Assessment of the location of periodicity and volumes of consequences of thehazardous and extreme phenomena is one of the priority objectives due to the Climate Change.
Since it is not possible to completely avoid the natural risks associated with the floods, mudflows
and snow-slides, the needs of capacity building for assessment the vulnerability and adaptation
are linked with prevention (non-admission), impact mitigation (protection) and damage division(insurance). The needs of the risk assessment for the floods, mudflows and snow-slides include
identification of the hazardous areas, probability of events and duration of the hazardous period.
The types of activities requiring the gap filling and capacity building are listed below:• Analysis of the current variability of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena (probabilityof occurrence, duration of hazardous period by the territory) and their after-effects forvulnerability assessment.
• Future risk assessment in line with the Climate Scenarios and application of theadvanced methods and tools.

103

•
•

Development of the large-scale maps of the current and future risk for individual
phenomena in line with the needs of the sectors (construction, transportation, recreationarea, etc.) for identification the high risk areas.
Assessment of potential of the hazardous phenomena risk reduction via improvement offorecasting and warning.

The goal of vulnerability assessment deepening and adaptation in the sector is to identify
potential probability for the risk reduction and elimination; identification of priority activities,
implementation of identified measures and mitigation of the natural disaster consequences.
At the national level for countries of Central Asia should be expanded use of information andcommunication technologies. In some countries have a databases and information systems, but
completely lacking operating system with access via the Internet, that in some cases difficult tocarry out operational monitoring for eliminating manifestations of dangerous disasters.
Developing information systems for water-related disaster prompt access via the Internet willallow the countries of Central Asia
At national level:• provide timely information to all interested users• more accurately determine the degree of risk and spatial distribution of hazards• quickly and accurately identify the needs for emergency response• determine more accurately the social and economic losses from the manifestation of
Emergency
At the sub-regional level:• raise awareness of the bordering countries on the extent of manifestation of an
emergency• increase the availability of neighboring countries to adopt appropriate preventive
measures• improve the management system in the aftermath and to reduce socio-economic losses
At the national and regional levels need access to operational satellite data. That will moreaccurately predict the manifestation of water-related disaster and depend on extreme weather
events.
For processing satellite data using GIS technology to education and training for personnel ofnational administrations to improve the reliability and timeliness of services.
Recommendations to address these needs at the national level
At the national level needs• To develop and improve of information and communication technology on the basis ofmodern GIS and satellite data
• Creating Web sites with information on floods, mudflows, glacial lakes with a wide access
via the Internet• Creating a satellite monitoring systems on existing practices in the region• Meetings and conferences with participation of specialists concerned ministries andagencies to share experiences and practical lessons• Training for young scientists and specialists

10418. Vietnam
1. Issues and Needs
1. Issues related climate system - water cycle - water use
Regionally common issues - identify which of the common issues are relevant to your country:-Vietnam is the one of most countries affected by climate change. That why, the important
issues for Vietnam are:
 intensification of variability (heavy rainfall and dry spells), cyclones
 frequency of extremes: flood (localized + social)and drought seasonal climate pattern (precipitation, dry and wet, maxima, )The lack of capability: climate change assessment and adaptation at river basin scale/regional scale.

Describe critical and specific issues in your country, include more details:-

Land slides / flash flood often occur in the country with 2/3 total area covered by
mountains/hills.
Sea level rise, salinity intrusion and urban inundation are crucial problems for Vietnam
under climate change affect.
Hydropower development affect to hydrological regime and water use in all river basins.
Trans-boundary and international coordination (Mekong River and Red River) also need
to focus on.
Exists national target program to respond to climate change and adaptation, but there arelimitations in financial and human resources for this programme implementation

2. Issues related to Water Nexus: agriculture, energy, health – water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem
A. Introduce issues related to Water Nexus in your country and identify two directions (see the example below):
1. Water and Climate Change affect each Socio-Benefit Area (SBA)
2. Each SBA affects water and environment
B. Introduce on-going projects and programs related to Water Nexus in your country

SBA
Agriculture:

CC, Water, and Environment
Sustainable Land and Forest Management, 2010-2013,$2300000, UNDP, Review and formulate policies, policy
instruments and procedures for reducing forest
degradation through carbon financing. Improve themanagement of degraded forests to protect and enhancecarbon stocks and reduce GHS emissions.



Energy:Barrier Removal to implement cost effective Energy
Efficient Standards and labeling (BRESL) (2008-2012),$1000000, UNDP
Phasing out Incandescent Lamps through Lighting
Market Transformation in Vietnam (2008-2014),$10975000, UNEP/GEF
Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Public Building in
VN (2010-2014), $2000000, UNDP/GEF
Sector Budget Support to NTP: Mitigation Component,(2009-2014), Denmark/ODA,
Vietnam Renewable Energy (P103238), (2009-2014)$ 239400000, WB

Urban:

 Megacity Research Project Ho Chi Minh City (20092014), funded by Germany/ODA, to derive adaptation
options for urban land use planning in HCMC as a
response to climate change.
Hanoi Urban Transport Project (P085393), 2007-2013,105

$9800000, WB/GEF
Disaster Management

 Disaster Risk Management portfolio (2009-2012)$4000000, funded by UNDP, Strengthening of Emergency
response mechanisms, improving institutional setting forcomplex emergencies. Capacity building for senior officials
and humanitarian workers and volunteers.



Ecosystem and Biodiversity:

Management of Natural Resources in the Coastal Zoneof Soc Trang Province (2007-2012), $4500000, funded byGermany/ODA, The coastal wetlands of Soc Trang
Province will be protected and sustainably used for the
benefit of the local population.

C. Respond to each of the following questions by considering water and climate change specifically for your country:- How can we address seasonal variability at national level?

Using National Target Programme (NTP) to address seasonal variability at national level.
-

How can we manage water resources in proper way between upstream and downstream and among different
sector uses: hydropower, irrigation, water supply?

We need national coordination from government by concrete rules or law for water resources
use, management and sharing; establish reservoir operation rules for flood and dry seasons;international or bilateral data cooperation and sharing for trans-boundary river basins.
-

How can we give the right information to these different sectors? They are demanding for more customized
climate information?

Using NTP with standing office providing neccesary information to related sectors.
-

How can we adapt the design criteria to changing characteristics and magnitude of water hazards, e.g. for new
drainage?

We need run or test several scenarios with appropriate modeling tools.
-

How can we share the data to the different sectors beyond laboratories?

We need data sharing agreement or contract between providers and users, depending on
the purpose of data use.
3. Needs for functions and/or tools of WCI to address the identified issues
Specify needs for your country:
Observations:-

in-situ telemetric network (mountain areas): need equipment, software, database andtraining for telemetric system
remote sensing (satellite, radar) currently and in future: how use satellite, radar data inhydrological modeling or forecasting, water resources management and disaster
reduce.

Data Access-satellite data access (operationally coupled with in-situ near real-time data): Need not
only satellite raw data but also the tools/software for interpreting and using these data
sets effectively.
global data access (Numerical Weather Prediction, Reanalysis, Climate Projection)ModelsManagement systems
Forecasting
Early Warning

for flood/inundation forecasting, water quality

106

-



Decision supportNational/local government (climate proofing, urban management, risk reduction measures, adaptation
strategies)
 community-based at village level for disaster management/prevention/reduction

Platform for sharing data and knowledge and exchanging ideas and experiences

Based on WMO standard data sharing and exchange
4. Needs for collaboration framework at the national level: inter-agency, interdisciplinary
Please introduce existing activities and what kind of activities/framework is needed in your country with regards to each of
the following points:
 We need to show a holistic view of water and climate change and their impacts on water nexus to all the stakeholders
through sharing data and information, exchanging ideas and experiences, and working together.-> need establish modern hydro-meteorological data and information center We need a well-organized interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral body at professional- and/or policy making- levels by
involving academia and civil societies-> improve and strengthen institutional capacity of govermental and sectoral organizations related
to water and climate change.
 We need to implement demonstrations and exchange good (failure) practices through regional conferences/workshops.

->Implement projects like using satellite data for disaster reduction; Urban flood risk management
among TC members with pilot cities (Hanoi, Malina, Hatsai) and good practice in China, Japan,
Korea Republic.
 We need criterion to maintain data quality, at least for rainfall, water level and hopefully river discharge and technicalstandards to design infrastructures in terms of water.

->Data exchange between Mekong River Commission Member countries in Mekong basin,
between Vietnam and China in the Red river basin; DIAS system of AWCI.
2. Implementation proposal
1. Please describe Steps and Strategy following the three approaches:

For Vietnam, there are 2 proposals (2012-2014):- Comparative study on monitoring scheme of river water quality taken in consideration ofwater balance among different watersheds in Asia, lead by Prof. Hiroaki FURUMAI, UT- Urban Flood Risk Management considering impact of climate change, lead by Typhoon
Committee
Framework development approach – describe desirable framework in your country
Demonstration design  infrastructure integrityIntroducing legislationhigh level coordination bodyresearch promotionImprovement of awarenessprivate
sector involvement-

Design, develop and complete proposal project
Submit to Ministry for approval
Approved from govermental authorities (Middle 2012)

Strategic approachShowcase: intention, background, objectives, collaborations, achievements with accuracy and feasibility, benefits toother sectors, interest  involvement one by one starting with existing inter-agency collaborations)
Demonstrations  regional and general commonality

Expansion of the AWCI demonstration studies to a whole region  sharing experiences a holistic understanding
and technology.

-

Detail describe project proposal
Management matrix for execute proposal

Technical approach – propose a technical approach considering your target basin/country
MonitoringunderstandingClimate change assessment including downscaling, bias correctiondetailassessmentmodeldemonstration mainstreaming creation of regional knowledge-

Consideration of
implementation

all necessary and available methods, techniques for proposal

107

-

Applied approriate methods, techniques depending on data availability, financial and humanresources- First proposal applied for Huong river basin from 2012-2014- Second proposal applied for Hanoi city (2012-2014)

2. Additional resources – suggestion of potential collaborators

Please identify local, national, regional, and worldwide (including UN) collaborators in the field of research,
operation, administration, financial and human resources supports. Please fill the matrix:

Collaborators----------Field

Local

National

Regional

Worldwide

Research- Hue University- Hanoi Water
Resources
Institute- ICHARM PWRI
- Univercity ofTokyo - AIT- DHI– DELFT

Operation-Hue Provincial
Hydro-Met
Centre- Provincial
Flood andStorm
ControlCommittees- Mekong River
Commission
Secretariate- JAXA- NASA, NOAA- Regional
Hydro-Met
Centres- WMO- TC- UN IHP- UN ESCAP

Administration- Institute ofHydrology,
Meteorology andEnvironment- Institute of
Water Planing- ResearchInstitute of Water
Rerources- National Hydro Met Service- National
RemoteSensing Centre- National Flood
and
Storm
ControlCommittee- MONRE

Financial res.

- Provincial fund

- Ministries
funding- National invest- NDF (Nordic
Development
Fund)- UN ESCAP- WMO- UNDP- WB

Human res.

Provincial,
institute,
university- National Hydro Met Service- Institute,
University- AIT- MRCS- DHI- UT- UNESCO

- WMO
- UN

Mainstreaming water and climate change within the national policy by getting supports from water nexus. Please
describe mainstreaming strategy suitable for your country.

Identify national sources and present requests for technical cooperation, including that
related to technology transfer and know-how, with international organizations and donor
institutions should formulate requests in the framework of long-term sector or subsector
capacity-building strategies. Strategies should, as appropriate, address policy adjustments tobe implemented, budgetary issues, cooperation and coordination among institutions, humanresource requirements, and technology and scientific equipment requirements. They should
cover public and private sector needs and consider strengthening scientific training andeducational and research programmes, including such training in the developed countries
and the strengthening of centres of excellence in developing countries. Country could
designate and strengthen a central unit to organize and coordinate technical cooperation,linking it with the priority-setting and resource allocation process.

108

3. Specific request to GEOSS and to international community (data/tools accessibility)
Describe in a concrete way and specifically for your country needs:

Inventory and summary directory – what kind is needed in your specific case:

Establishment of the Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
Reliability of quality control procedures applied on collected data
Automatic data reception, decoding and archival; automatic data visualization; andautomatic data processing
Monitoring and warning systems for droughtData request function responding to new needs – what kind of function:

Operational access to NWP products from major centres. 24/7 production anddissemination of basic and specialized NWP products under emergency situations
Real-time reporting of hydrological data from networks including from remote stations


Data access and information exchange:

Promotion and strengthening of the principle of free and unrestricted international
exchange of data, information and products

Models and Tools: analysis, prediction, early warning, risk assessment, decision support – what kind for what
purpose:Models/tools for flood/innudation prediction
GCM –models temperature/precipitation for hydrological models
Use Ensemble prediction tools (long/short term)
Statistical tools from seasonal climate predictions to shorter time-scales….need
to develop new statistical methods accounting for non-stationary…..


Regional office and/or data center – what kind of function you expect for the office:Data sharing and exchange, especially for trans-boundary river basins.
Access and use of e-learning materials
4. Coordination between water cycle integration and capacity development strategy- Identify contents of capacity development needs in your country:••

Improved downscaling techniques
Developed a Strategy Document for Distance Learning- Introduce existing and on-going activities and the needs and support related to these five items:•
Synchronize capacity development with national implementation programme coordinated by the regional
programme.

National Target Program to respond to climate change.
•

Training for not only researchers but also practitioners from top level to operator/technician’s level, withappropriate standards depending on the level (various kinds of training) including trainer’s training to befollowed by practice and identify it as a postgraduate program in collaboration with international educationalframework (e.g. UNU, UN-CECAR).

Continuous education programmes and refresher courses for staff, as well as
management training (including strategic planning) for mid- and high-level personnel•

Short term capacity development workshops on specific observation and modeling skills and medium to longterm supports to regional resource centers.

GCM –models temperature/precipitation for hydrological models•

Coordinate with national and regional centers of excellence (ex. WMO centre in Hanoi on WR)

AIT and Water Resources Institute, Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environment(IHME)•

Organize capacity development workshops in each country for the agencies involved in the project at national
level on the WCI implementation. Identify agencies and participating organizations for making such an
opportunity.

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Maintenance/implementation of a structured training plan for professional, technical andsupporting staff. Continuous education programmes and refresher courses for staff, as
well as management training (including strategic planning) for mid- and high-level
personnel

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