IEEJ：June ©IEEJ 2023
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (640)

June 9, 2023

Publication of “Future Map of Strategic Materials”
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Senior Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanOn June 8, my new book, titled “Future Map of Strategic Materials” (written in Japanese),
was published by ASA Publishing Co. The book makes a holistic examination of geopolitics overstrategic materials – oil, coal, natural gas, renewable energy, critical minerals, nuclear energy andhydrogen/ammonia – from the viewpoint of energy security and decarbonization on the premise of
the world’s division symbolized by the confrontation between the United States and China andbetween the Western bloc and the China-Russia group. As indicated by the above-mentioned word
“makes a holistic examination,” this is not any specialized book that details market andsupply/demand analysis regarding those strategic materials. This book is designed to provide generalreaders, rather than relevant experts or business stakeholders, with views and perspectives on thewhole future picture of strategic materials by taking advantage of charts and maps as well as a stylethat is as plain as possible. This is thus positioned as a kind of basic guidebook.
I authored “Dramatically Changing International Energy Situation” (published by Energy
Forum Inc. on June 23 last year) and “Energy Geopolitics” (published by Asahi Shimbun
Publications Inc. on August 12 last year). The two books used different angles to analyze energy
security and decarbonization issues from the geopolitical perspective, considering dramatic changes
in the international energy situation particularly since 2020. I fully recognize that my latest book
“Future Map of Strategic Materials” has some overlaps with the two earlier books regarding
awareness and discussions as far as the three books deal with key issues of the current internationalenergy situation. However, my latest book features a greater focus on the escalation of the world’sdivision and my attempt to indicate how strategic materials would be positioned, how major
geopolitical actors such as the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, the Middle Eastand the Global South would approach strategic materials and how the future of strategic materials
would influence power balances between these actors.
Another feature of my latest book regarding the abovementioned perspective is that thebook deals with not only oil, natural gas, coal as traditional targets of energy geopolitics analysis but
also renewable energy, nuclear energy, hydrogen/ammonia and critical minerals. The concept ofstrategic materials in the book covers some strategically important technologies. Comparing thebook’s issue awareness and discussions with the features and achievements of the Group of Seven
Hiroshima summit discussed in my previous report “A Japanese Perspective on the International
Energy Landscape (639),” I strongly feel that they reflect similar issue awareness. I think that mybook features such relevance and timeliness as well.
Because energy and other resources as strategic materials are indispensable for everyday
civic life and economic and industrial activities, a state occasionally makes strategic decisions toinfluence the supply-demand balance and supply chains of strategic materials in view of their supply
and demand environment and prices to maximize the country’s national interests. In this sense, the1IEEJ：June ©IEEJ 2023
book defines strategic materials as exerting influence on the international balance of power.
Regarding such strategic materials, the book recognizes the importance of current relevant issues
such as the Ukraine crisis but gives priority to forward-looking discussions, without focusing on
current issues excessively. The book is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 How are strategic materials seen in the world in turbulent times?
Chapter 2 Which countries are rich in resources? The latest map of strategic materials
Chapter 3 World division and strategic materials influence the national destiny
Chapter 4 Politicization of climate change issue: Strategic materials seen from decarbonization
initiatives
Chapter 5 Japan’s strategic materials and their future map
Chapter 1 defines oil, coal, natural gas, renewable energy, critical minerals, nuclear energy
and hydrogen/ammonia as strategic materials subject to discussion in the book. Taking up oil andother strategic materials as examples, the chapter discusses geopolitical situations and market
environments in which the importance of strategic materials grows, based on historical events likeWorld WarⅡ and the first oil crisis, and the Ukraine crisis as a current grave issue. It serves as an
introduction to this book by explaining the current situation where strategic materials attract global
attention when energy security is prioritized amid the escalation of the world’s division, withdecarbonization becoming urgent.
Chapter 2 uses the latest reserves, production and consumption data to overview market
conditions for the seven strategic materials as mentioned above and discusses particularly important
selected topics. The selection is based on the importance of strategic materials as the book’s theme
and the viewpoint of geopolitics. Regarding oil, for instance, the chapter takes up the significance of
the U.S. shale revolution and the United States’ important roles in stabilizing chokepoints in sea lane
and the Middle East. As for renewable energy, which is expanding rapidly and globally, the chapter
discusses natural supply potential, cost differences, intermittent supply issue, China’s huge presence
in renewable energy consumption, and relevant industries. Regarding nuclear energy, which is now
attracting global attention again, the great presence of China and Russia is discussed. On criticalminerals that are indispensable for future energy transition, the chapter takes up concern over atighter supply-demand balance and price hikes amid rapid growth in demand and unevenly
distributed sources for resources and refining/processing services from the geopolitical viewpoint. It
also describes how major countries are taking advantage of their respective strengths andcharacteristics to expand the use of hydrogen/ammonia as hopeful clean fuels and develop relevant
supply chains.
Chapter 3 analyzes the current situation where the escalating division of the world furtherenhances the importance of strategic materials, overviews major countries’ relevant strategies anddiscusses issue awareness, crisis consciousness and national strategies of major actors such as theUnited States, China, Russia, the European Union, the Middle East and the Global South to tackle
problems regarding strategic materials. In discussing specific actors’ relevant strategies, the chapter
focuses on issues that are viewed as particularly important from the viewpoint of this book’s title,“Future Map of Strategic Materials,” as Chapter 2 does.
Chapter 4 takes up decarbonization as a factor exerting great influence on the future ofstrategic materials, discussing how decarbonization would influence the importance of each strategicmaterial. It emphasizes the impact of decarbonization on future demand for fossil fuels such as oil,coal and natural gas, as well as the importance of fossil fuel decarbonization. The chapter also
considers how the growing importance of renewable energy, nuclear energy, hydrogen/ammonia and2

IEEJ：June ©IEEJ 2023
critical minerals amid the decarbonization trend would influence the world’s division andgeopolitics.
Chapter 5 discusses how Japan should deal with strategic materials in the dramaticallychanging international situation. It also considers the “strategic materials” Japan could possess andpoints out the significance of domestic and international strategies for using those strategic materials.
In this regard, the chapter notes that it is extremely important for Japan to enhance technological andrulemaking initiatives for its future.
I would be pleased if my book contributes to stimulating public interest in the future ofstrategic materials.

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