Adaptation: incremental ortransformational?
IPCC Special Report on
1.5°C – Chapter 4
Reinhard Mechler
IPCC Pavilion-COP
24thDecember
5 , 2018
Katowice, 6.12.2018

Dr. Debora Ley

Risks in the IPCC SR15
The Reasons for Concern

Chapter 3: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018

Adaptation at 1.5° C vs. 2 C°
B6. Most adaptation needs are lower for global warming of 1.5°C
compared to 2°C (high confidence). There are a wide range ofadaptation options that can reduce the risks of climate change (highconfidence).
• There are limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity for somehuman and natural systems at global warming of 1.5°C, withassociated losses (medium confidence).
•

become more pronounced at higher levels of warming and varyby sector, with site-specific implications for vulnerable regions,ecosystems, and human health (medium confidence).

•A3. Future climate-related risks would be reduced by upscaling
and acceleration of far-reaching, multi-level and cross-sectoral
climate mitigation and by both incremental and transformational
adaptation (high confidence).

Risk, Adaptation, Limits, SDGs
System (RFC)

Regions

1.5°C

2°C

Adaptation

Adaptation-potential

Agriculture andFood security(2,4)

Global,Africa, Asia

32-36 million people
affected by reduced
yields330-396 million
people with
reduced yields

Climate resistantvarieties,
irrigation

Medium, higher inhigh latitudes than in
low latitudes

Water resources(3)

Global,Africa,
Mediterranean

496 million people
waterstressed

590 million
peoplewaterstressed

Rationing
Wells
Rainwater tanks

Low

Coral reefs (1)Tropics

70-90% at risk of loss

99% at risk of loss

-Very limited

Coastalsettlements (2,3)

Global, Asia, 31-69 million people atrisk
SIDS

32-79 million
people at risk

Coastal ,Mangrove

Low-medium.
Some atolls may
become uninhabitable
at 1.5°C/2°C

Health (2,3,4)

Global,part.
tropics

Hydration,
cooling zones,
green roofs

Medium, low intropics+ 350 million people
exposed to deadly
heatwaves in megacities
by 2050

Synthesis from IPCC SR15 2018 (ch.3,4, 5)

SDG

Risk, Adaptation, Limits, SDGs
System (RFC)

Regions

1.5°C

2°C

Adaptation

Adaptation-potential

Agriculture andFood security(2,4)

Global,Africa, Asia

32-36 million people
affected by reduced
yields330-396 million
people with
reduced yields

Climate resistantvarieties,irrigation

Medium, higher inhigh latitudes than inlow latitudes

Water resources(3)

Global,Africa,
Mediterranean

496 million people
waterstressed

590 million
peoplewaterstressed

Rationing
Wells
Rainwater tanks

Low

Coral reefs (1)Tropics

70-90% at risk of loss

99% at risk of loss

-Very limited

Coastalsettlements (2,3)

Global, Asia, 31-69 million people atriskSIDS32-79 million
people at risk

Coastal ,Mangrove

Low-medium.
Some atolls may
become uninhabitable
at 1.5°C/2°C

Health (2,3,4)

Global,part.
tropics

Hydration,
cooling zones,green roofs

Medium, low intropics+ 350 million people
exposed to deadly
heatwaves in megacities
by 2050

Synthesis from IPCC SR15 2018 (ch.3,4, 5)

SDG

Risk, Adaptation, Limits, SDGs
System (RFC)

Regions

1.5°C

2°C

Adaptation

Adaptation-potential

Agriculture andFood security(2,4)

Global,Africa, Asia

32-36 million people
affected by reduced
yields330-396 million
people with
reduced yields

Climate resistantvarieties,
irrigation

Medium, higher inhigh latitudes than in
low latitudes

Water resources(3)

Global,Africa,
Mediterranean

496 million people
waterstressed

590 million
peoplewaterstressed

Rationing
Wells
Rainwater tanks

Low

Coral reefs (1)Tropics

70-90% at risk of loss

99% at risk of loss

-Very limited

Coastalsettlements (2,3)

Global, Asia, 31-69 million people atrisk
SIDS

32-79 million
people at risk

Coastal ,Mangrove

Low-medium.
Some atolls may
become uninhabitable
at 1.5°C/2°C

Health (2,3,4)

Global,part.
tropics

Hydration,
cooling zones,green roofs

Medium, low intropics+ 350 million people
exposed to deadly
heatwaves in megacities
by 2050

Synthesis from IPCC SR15 2018 (ch.3,4, 5)

SDG

Risk, Adaptation, Limits, SDGs
System (RFC)

Regions

1.5°C

2°C

Adaptation

Adaptation-potential

Agriculture andFood security(2,4)

Global,Africa, Asia

32-36 million people
affected by reducedyields

330-396 million
people with
reduced yields

Climate resistantvarieties,
irrigation

Medium, higher inhigh latitudes than in
low latitudes

Water resources(3)

Global,Africa,
Mediterranean

496 million people
waterstressed

590 million
peoplewaterstressed

Rationing
Wells
Rainwater tanks

Low

Coral reefs (1)Tropics

70-90% at risk of loss

99% at risk of loss

-Very limited

Coastalsettlements (2,3)

Global,Asia, SIDS

31-69 million people at 32-79 millionrisk
people at risk

Coastal ,Mangrove

Low-medium.
Some atolls may
becomeuninhabitable at
1.5°C/2°C

Health (2,3,4)

Global,part.
tropics+ 350 million people
exposed to deadly
heatwaves in megacities
by 2050

Hydration,
cooling zones,green roofs

Medium, low intropics

Synthesis from IPCC SR15 2018 (ch.3,4, 5)

SDG

Risk, Adaptation, Limits, SDGs
System (RFC)

Regions

1.5°C

2°C

Adaptation

Adaptation-potential

Agriculture andFood security(2,4)

Global,Africa, Asia

32-36 million people
affected by reduced
yields330-396 million
people with
reduced yields

Climate resistantvarieties,
irrigation

Medium, higher inhigh latitudes than in
low latitudes

Water resources(3)

Global,Africa,Mediterranean

496 million people
waterstressed

590 million
peoplewaterstressed

Rationing
Wells
Rainwater tanks

Low

Coral reefs (1)Tropics

70-90% at risk of loss

99% at risk of loss

-Very limited

Coastalsettlements (2,3)

Global, Asia, 31-69 million people atrisk
SIDS

32-79 million
people at risk

Coastal ,Mangrove

Low-medium.
Some atolls may
become uninhabitable
at 1.5°C/2°C

Health (2,3,4)

Global,part. + 350 million people
exposed to deadly
tropicsheatwaves inmegacities by 2050

Hydration,cooling zones,green roofs

Medium, low intropics

Synthesis from IPCC SR15 2018 (ch.3,4, 5)

SDGAdaptation agriculture•

Changing agricultural practices effective: a diversity of options exists,
including mixed crop-livestock production systems …a cost-effective
adaptation strategy in many global agriculture systems (robust evidence,medium agreement).

•Improving irrigation efficiency to effectively deal with changing global
water endowments, especially if achieved via farmers adopting new
behaviour and water-efficient practices rather than through large-scale
infrastructure (medium evidence, medium agreement).

•Improving the efficiency of food production and closing yield gaps havepotential to reduce emissions from agriculture, reduce pressure onland and enhance food security and future mitigation potential (highconfidence).

Adaptation water• Cities to integrate sustainable water resource management and thesupply of water services in ways to support mitigation, adaptationand development through waste-water recycling and storm water
diversion.
• Urban design in many cities now seeks to mediate run-off,encourage groundwater recharge and enhance water quality.
• Growing evidence suggests that investing in behavioural shifts
towards using irrigation technology such as micro-sprinklers ordrip irrigation, is an effective and quick adaptation strategy as
opposed to large dams which have high financial, ecological andsocial costs.

Adaptation: Incremental and Transformational

Incremental adaptation:
Adaptation that maintains theessence and integrity of a systemor process at a given scale.
Transformational adaptation:
Adaptation that changes thefundamental attributes of a socioecological system in anticipation ofclimate change and its impacts.

Chapter 3: )Soft and hard limits

Cross-chapter box in Roy et al. 2018 (IPCC SR15 ch. 5)

Summary• Stabilizing at 1.5°C requires transformational mitigation as
well as ramping up incremental and sometimes
transformational adaptation• Risks and adaptation needs substantially lower at 1.5°C
than at 2 °C, but higher than at 1°C• Food production and security as well as water sectors
affected: variety of adaptation options at hand
• Some limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity• Considerations for equity and international support for
those at risk
• Transformational adaptation to push soft limits:
the Loss and Damage policy space?

Transformation: synergies, actions, process•

D6. Sustainable development supports, and often enables, thefundamental societal and systems transitions and transformations that help
limit global warming to 1.5°C.

•Facilitates pursuit of climate-resilient development pathways that
achieve ambitious mitigation and adaptation in conjunction with poverty
eradication and efforts to reduce inequalities (high confidence).

•Social justice and equity core aspects of climate-resilient development
pathways: address challenges and inevitable trade-offs, widen
opportunities, and ensure options, visions, and values are deliberated,
between and within countries and communities, without making the poorand disadvantaged worse off.