Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

AFOLU in the IPCC 2006 Guidelines

Simon Eggleston, Nalin Srivastava
IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme
THIRD INFORMAL DIALOGUE ON LULUCF
Reykjavik, Iceland
7 - 9 May, 2008

Outline of Presentation• Evolution of Guidelines from 1996 to 2006
– Guidelines have developed and improved as knowledge andexperience increases• Some basics– Basic principals and ideas remain unchanged– Major change is from 1996 Guidelines to LULUCF• 1996 Guidelines focus on main processes, LULUCF focus on
all land-use types.
• Changes from LULUCF to 2006 Guidelines (AFOLU) are small• Specific improvements between AFOLU (2006) andGPG LULUCF1

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Evolution of IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Revised 1996 Guidelines > 2006 Guidelines
LUCF > LULUCF > AFOLUHistory•

Revised 1996 Guidelines approach –Land-Use Change and Forestry (LUCF)–•

2000 Good Practice Guidance andUncertainty Management–•Defines GPG and applies it toAgriculture

Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG
LULUCF)––•

Identifies major likely land use sources

Expanded Guidance covering all carbon
pools
Guidance on the representing Land
Areas

2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories–––

Now Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Use (AFOLU)
Essentially the same as to GPG
LULUCF but integrating Agriculture andLULUCF sectors
Extended default values & some
improved methods

2

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Relationship of GPG and SectoralGuidance•••

Good Practice inventories are defined as “those that containneither over- nor under-estimates so far as can be judged,
and in which uncertainties are reduced as far as is practical”
GPG retains consistency with Revised 1996 Guidelines
GPG guidance updated and expanded in the 2006 Guidelines

Evolution of IPCC Guidelines3

Task Force onINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Evolution of IPCC Guidelines

Evolution of IPCC Guidelines

4

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Why integrate Agriculture & LULUCF?
• The emissions from both sectors have been
integrated into this new framework in orderto resolve inconsistencies and avoid double
counting:– Removes the somewhat arbitrary distinction
between these categories in the previous
guidance, and promotes consistent use of data
between them, especially for more detailed
methods.
– Makes consistent the treatment of gases in theAgriculture and LULUCF Sectors and so allows
for more consistent treatment of land conversions;

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Some Unchanging Basics
Underlying approach remains unchanged

5

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
InventoriesGeneral Method•••

There are large uncertainties in estimating fluxes of CO2.
Direct measurements are extremely difficult (small differences oflarge numbers) and inherent heterogeneity.
A practical first order approach is to make assumptions about
effects of land use change on carbon stocks and the subsequentbiological response to a given land use.

Flux of C assumed = changes in carbon stocks in existingbiomass and soils.
– Note: Carbon stocks in HWP, landfills etc. Some Carbon emitted asCH4, CO etc.
– Remains general approach from 1996 Guidelines, through the GPG
LULUCF to the 2006 Guidelines & AFOLU

Estimating Carbon Stock Changes

1Carbon
Stock inyear 1

2
CarbonStock inYear 2

Difference between carbon stocks
gives emission/removal

Disturbances

Land UsetypeHarvest

Emission/removal from sumlosses and gains

1996 Guidelines, through the GPG LULUCF to the 2006 Guidelines & AFOLU

6

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Carbon Pools and Flows(LULUCF & AFOLU)Managed Land – a proxy for anthropogenic• Managed land is used in these guidelines as a proxyfor identifying anthropogenic emissions by sources
and removals by sinks.
– use of managed land as a proxy for anthropogenic effects
was adopted in the GPG-LULUCF and is consistent with
the Revised 1996 Guidelines.

• Managed land is land where human interventions
and practices have been applied to perform
production, ecological or social functions.
– All land definitions and classifications should be specified at
the national level, described in a transparent manner, andbe applied consistently over time.
– However, it is good practice for countries to quantify, andtrack over time, the area of unmanaged land so thatconsistency in area accounting is maintained as land-use
change occurs.

7

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Why Managed Land as a Proxy?
– The preponderance of anthropogenic effects occurs on
managed lands and, from a practical standpoint, theinformation needed for inventory estimation is largely
confined to managed lands.
– By definition, all direct human-induced effects on
greenhouse gas emissions and removals occur onmanaged lands only.
– While local and short-term variability in emissions andremovals due to natural causes can be substantial thenatural ‘background’ of greenhouse gas emissions andremovals by sinks tends to average out over time andspace. This leaves the greenhouse gas emissions andremovals from managed lands as the dominant result ofhuman activity.

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Differences between LULUCF and AFOLU
Incremental Improvements and clarifications

8

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEInventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Direct & Indirect Emissions
CO2Direct CO2 Emissions“Total” CO2 Emissions – the total increment inthe atmosphere form direct and indirect sourcesof CO2

CO2CH4, CO & Hydrocarbons

Oxidises in the Atmosphere to form CO2Sometimes called “Indirect CO2 Emissions”

CO201/05/2008 - 08/05/2008

NH3 & NOx

“Indirect N2O Emissions”

N2O
Deposition of N onto soils and the subsequent chemistry
gives rise to N2O Emissions – “Indirect N2O”

Direct & Indirect Emissions•The 2006 Guidelines make it clear that “CO2 Emissions” arethe direct emissions in that year of all carbon emitted as CO2,i.e. excluding any carbon emitted in other forms (e.g. CH4, CO,NMVOC, particulates …) even though this may be converted in
the atmosphere to CO2 after emission– Over all, the previous guidelines were ambiguous on this– Some Tier 1 methods in (e.g. in Energy) assume that direct
carbon emission = total carbon as CO2 emission (uncertainties inthis assumption are much smaller than other sources of
uncertainties in Tier 1).
– This has implications for land-use emissions, particularly fires.

•In the GPG LULUCF Indirect N2O is only reported for NOx andNH3 from some agricultural sources.
– In addition the 2006 Guidelines ask for indirect emissions of N2O
from• manure management• all other non-agricultural sources of NOx and NH3 to be estimated IF
complete inventories of NOx and NH3 are available

9

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
InventoriesFires•

GPG LULUCF– All fires on managed land considered (1996 GL suggested prescribedburning only).
– Fires on un-managed land should not be reported UNLESS they arefollowed by a land use-change– Where methods do NOT capture removals by re-growth then CO2 fromnatural disturbances should not be reported (1996 GL suggest reporting
only non- CO2 gases, as carbon emission balanced by re-growth).
– Non-CO2 emissions from agricultural crop residue and savannah burning
fires reported under Agriculture•2006 GL - AFOLU– All fires on managed land should be reported– Annual emission reported except where annual CO2 emissions andremovals are equivalent – e.g. some grasslands and burning ofagricultural residues– Improved and more consistent methodological guidance– Emissions from fires reported separately (in 3.C.1) from other land useemissions (in 3.B)

Harvested Wood Products•

Now a chapter in 2006 Guidelines– previously an appendix “basis for future methodologicaldevelopment”•

Currently, there is no decision under the UFCCC on whichapproach to use to report these emissions and/or removals– approaches differ in the allocation between wood producing andconsuming countries, and what processes (atmospheric fluxes orstock changes) they focus on•The IPCC has not selected any of the proposed approaches.
Instead it:– Provides methods to estimate 5 underlying parameters based on
the assumption of first order decay– Provides a spreadsheet to estimate HWP that is based on FAO
data for each country– Allows optional linkage with the waste sector spreadsheet for
decay of HWP in landfill sites.
– Gives help on combining these parameters to estimate any of theproposed approaches

10Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Wetlands
Peat Land

Flooded Land

LULUCF

AFOLU

LULUCFAFOLU

Appendix

YES

Appendix

IE

1Wetlands
Remaining
Wetlands

CO2

Negligible

Appendix

N2O

Appendix

YES

Appendix

Appendix
2IE

Land
Converted
to Wetlands

CO2

YES

YES

YES

YES

Negligible

Appendix

YES

Appendix

Appendix
2IE

CH4CH4

4

N2O

Appendix43

Notes:
1.
2.
3.
4.

CO2 is assumed to be covered by carbon stock changes forupstream
Included in indirect N2O estimates from run-off and waste water
Additional material is included in an appendix
Drainage and re-wetting of forest soils is discussed in an appendix

Settlements remaining Settlements•Methods available:– 1996 Guidelines• Not covered– GPG-LULUCF• Only an Appendix 3a.4 “Basis for future Methodological Development”– AFOLU• Now a chapter (Vol 4, Section 8.2) so to be included in Good PracticeInventories

11•

CO2 Removals in Residual Combustion Products (Charcoal)•CO2 Emissions from lands converted to permanently floodedLand•CH4 Emissions from Flooded Land

Task Force onINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

AFOLU – Appendices:
Basis for future methodological work

12

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories
Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Reporting in AFOLU compared to
LULUCF/1996 Revised Guidelines
 Sectors reallocated “Enteric Fermentation – Poultry” – report under other (if any) “Manure Management”– report by animal type only “Agricultural Soils” & “CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soils”– now 3.C.2
Liming, 3.C.3 Urea Application, 3.C.4 Direct N2O Emissions from ManagedSoils

 Fires previously reported under “Forest and Grassland
Conversion”, “Field Burning of Agricultural Residues” and“Prescribed Burning of Savannas” now reported under 3.C.1:
 3.C.1.a Biomass Burning in Forests
 3.C.1.b Biomass burning in Crop Lands
 3.C.1.c Biomass burning in Grassland
 3.C.1.d Biomass Burning in all other land

 New categories
 5.A Indirect N2O Emissions from the Atmospheric Deposition of Nitrogen inNOx and NH3
 3.C.3 Urea application
 3.D.1 HWP

Summary
9

Basic methodological approach continued from 1996 Guidelines,
GPG LULUCF to 2006 Guidelines AFOLU:–Stock changes ⇒ Emissions/Removals
1.
2.

9

GPG LULUCF & AFOLU consider all carbon pools–9Inputs (e.g. growth) - outputs (e.g. decay, harvest)
Total Stock at end minus Total stock at beginning

Improved completeness implies both more accurate and reliable results andincreased data needs

The AFOLU Guidance in the 2006 Guidelines maintains the basicstructure, definitions and methods of the GPG LULUCF––––––

Improved guidance in some areas
More and improved default data
Integration of Agriculture reduces chance of double counting or omissions –some simplification of categories
Do not pre-empt accounting choices - all the information needed is retained
Mapping between the GPG LULUCF classification and the AFOLU
classification is straightforward.
Effort and data requirements much the same as for LULUCF

13

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme

Task Force on
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Inventories

Thank youGuidelines in all UN languages
can be downloaded fromhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp

14