IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle:
post-SR15 research agenda –pointers to WGIICOP24 Katowice, December 2018
Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner and Dr. Debra
Roberts, IPCC WGII Co-Chairs

AR6 WGII Co-Chairs’ overarching goals• storyline from climate to natural systems to humansocieties, their response options, the associatedfeedback potential• framework that incorporates risk reduction throughadaptation and mitigation• wider use of social sciences for adaptation (lifestylechoices: decision making, behaviour, consumption,technologies, societal inertia and transformation)• address tradeoffs and synergies between climatechange adaptation and mitigation link to policy goals(e.g., SDGs, poverty reduction, biodiversity)• Focus on solutions

Sixth Assessment Report:
Working Group II Outline
Chapter 1: Point of departure and key concepts
SECTION 1: RISKS, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITYFOR SYSTEMS IMPACTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE

Chapter 2: Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems andthe changing structure and their services
Chapter 3: Ocean and coastal ecosystems and theirservices
Chapter 4: Water
Chapter 5: Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products
Chapter 6: Cities, settlements and key infrastructure
Chapter 7: Health, wellbeing of communities
Chapter 8: Poverty, livelihoods and sustainabledevelopment

Sixth Assessment Report:Working Group II Outline (cont’d)
SECTION 2: REGIONS
Chapter 9: Africa
Chapter 10: Asia
Chapter 11: Australasia
Chapter 12: Central and South America
Chapter 13: Europe
Chapter 14: North America
Chapter 15: Small Islands

AR6 WGII - highlight: Regional Chapters
Common elements•

Regional/subregional climate•

WGI/WGII information, combined with risk assessment•

Detection and attribution•Sectoral climate risk (land, coast, regional oceans)•

Cultural and psychological dimensions•

Observed impacts, projected risks (including residual risksand developing pathways)•

Adaptation options (incremental/transformational;adaptive capacity, enabliers/barriers, ...)•

Governance, economic aspects (legal, financial,institutional, ...)•

Cross-sectoral, intra-/inter-regional issues (includingtime scale)•Interaction of risk and responses with sustainableSixth Assessment Report:
Working Group II Outline (cont’d)

SECTION 3: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS:
INTEGRATING ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
Chapter 16: Key risks across sectors and regions
Chapter 17: Decision-making options for managing risk
Chapter 18: Climate resilient development pathways

Sixth Assessment Report:
Working Group II Outline (cont’d)
CROSS CHAPTER PAPERS
Biodiversity hotspots (land, coasts and oceans)
Cities and settlements by the sea
Deserts, semi-arid areas, and desertification
Mediterranean region
Mountains
Polar regions
Tropical forests

SR1.5 pointers to AR6 WGII
2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C• Impacts on natural and human systems (Ch. 3)• Strengthening and implementing the global response(including adaptation and mitigation trade-offs) (Ch. 4)• Sustainable development, poverty eradication, reducing
inequalities (Ch. 5)•Regional impacts and adaptation at 1.5, 2ºC andhigher levels of warming•

Projections of risks under a range of climate anddevelopment pathways•

More complex and integrated socio-economic
models for predicting the response of terrestrial
ecosystems to climate•

Tools for informing local and regional decisionmaking

SR1.5 pointers to AR6 WGII
Overarching challenges•

Transformative adaptation and adaptation pathways•

Governance mechanisms across scales; barriers andenablers for adaptation•

Involvement of Indigenous and local communities
and their knowledge in adaptation•

Regional information on adaptation options;monitoring and evaluating progress of adaptation•

Avoiding maladaptation; socio-cultural perspectives
on impacts of adaptation options (e.g., conservation
agriculture, coastal protection, agroforestry,
biodiversity management)

SR1.5 pointers to AR6 WGII
Complexity aspects•

Cumulative effects of multiple stresses and risks,e.g., increased storm intensity interacting with sea
level rise and the effect on coastal people; feedback
on wetlands due to climate change and humanactivities•

Synergies and trade-offs with adaptation, mitigationand sustainable development, e.g., energy and watersectors, food production systems, carbon dioxide
removal (CDR), biodiversity conservation, poverty
alleviation, competition for landAR6 WGII - highlight: Cities & Climate
ChangeUrban areas:•~70% global fossil fuel CO2 emissions•

contain 54% world population (2014)•

Asian and African cities to contain 60% world
population by 2050•

are key in understanding and managing global
climate impactsand risk•

New Urban Agenda – Habitat III conference 2016•

focus theme in WGII AR6, including cities chapter andcross-chapter paper

Balancing AR6 with Upcoming Special
Reports
2019: Ocean and Cryosphere• High mountain areas (Ch. 2), Polar regions (Ch. 3)• Sea level rise; implications for low-lying islands,
coasts, communities (Ch. 4; CC-Box)• Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, dependentcommunities (Ch. 5)• Extremes, abrupt changes, managing risks (Ch. 6)

Balancing AR6 with Upcoming Special
Reports
2019: Ocean and Cryosphere• High mountain areas (Ch. 2), Polar regions (Ch. 3)• Sea level rise; implications for low-lying islands,
coasts, communities (Ch. 4; CC-Box)• Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, dependentcommunities (Ch. 5)• Extremes, abrupt changes, managing risks (Ch. 6)

2019: Land

• Desertification (Ch. 3), Land degradation (Ch. 4), Food
security (land) (Ch. 5)• Risk management, decision making with respect tosustainable development (incl. institutions,governance) (Ch. 6)

Q&AScenarios•

common set of scenarios across WGs•consistent set of indicators to use across WGs•

guidance document on scenarios and their uses

Regional aspects•

Attributes of climate information (variables andprocessed derivatives, resolution in time and space)need to be determined by characteristics of impacted
systems and regions•

Provide transparent assessment of robustness ofinformation/observations as a team, including
assessment of the principles and approaches tointerpretation•

Align/harmonize information from WGI withassessment of regional literature by WGII•Distinguish more clearly between attribution tohuman influence on climate and attribution toobserved climate change (the former applies toclimate variables while the latter applies to impacts)•

Define extreme events from the perspective ofimpacts

Risk Framework•knowledge base of risk•

different degrees of quantification•

Broadened view of risk, but still within IPCC boundaries•

WGI/WGII coordination to produce probabilistic
information on climate events for risk calculations•

application of risk assessment to WGIII topics, e.g.,risks of application of new technologies to mitigation•

visibility to human and social factors and socialimpacts, especially risks to most vulnerable people,
ethical aspects•

many stakeholders – including business community,finance, insurance•

flipside of risks – opportunities, inclusion of solutions
to climate risk problems•

mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce risk

Aadaptation mitigation interactions•

addressed in sectoral chapters (Ch. 2-8; incl. impacts ofmitigation, and interactions between adaptationmitigation)•

Synergies and trade-offs of sustainable development,adaptation, and mitigation assessed specifically (Ch. 18)•

analysis of economic and social benefits of mitigation
and adaption (incl. avoided impacts), with respect tosustainable development•

social aspects (e.g., geopolitical, gender, ethnic, equity)of impacts of adaptation and mitigation, with respect tosustainable development

Geoengineering
primarily WGI-WGIII interaction
WGII involvement• consequences on permafrost, carbon cycle, land
use and change• blue carbon context of adaptation and mitigation
impacts and interactions• impacts and feedbacks from geoengineering• social acceptability, governance and risks ofgeoengineeringGlobal Stocktake• across all WG• mitigation, adaptation and financing and support• WGII specific• assessment of guidance and development of metrics
for adaptation progress across scales• assessment of adaptation needs and costs, risks andvulnerability• past and future adaptation policy options• WGII and WGIII• Interactions of adaptation needs and limits with
mitigation