Summary report on
The 7 International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting of the GEOSS Asian Water
Cycle Initiative (AWCI)
held
at the Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo Komaba Campus, Tokyo, Japan,
5 – 6 October 2010.
th

The Seventh GEOSS AWCI ICG meeting was planned and undertaken to accelerate the GEOSS/AWCI
coordination focusing on promotion of regional cooperation on climate change adaptations andimplementation of relevant activities proposed at the recent meeting events and more specifically outlined
at the Sixth GEOSS AWCI ICG meeting in Bali, Indonesia, March 2010. The meeting included an
exhibition of poster presentations of various companies focusing on infrastructure development products
and services.
More than 50 participants from 16 countries assembled during the meeting and discussed theth
topics included on the meeting agenda that followed up on the outcomes and recommendations of the 6
AWCI ICG meeting. The result of those discussions is summarized in this report. All of the presentationmaterial provided by the participants at the meeting is available on the Internet through the meeting home
page at:http://monsoon.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/AWCI/meetings/Tokyo_Oct2010/presentations.html.
The meeting was co-sponsored by the University of Tokyo, APN, JAXA, ICHARM, and UNU.
1. Executive Summary of Main Issues/Conclusions and Actions
The meeting reviewed the status of the AWCI activities concluding that the demonstration projects weremature in most cases with a good progress in data submission to the DIAS system. Benefits of the AWCI
collaborative framework and the integrated data system (DIAS) as well as the GEOSS framework wereshown through the outcomes of several demonstration projects. The DIAS system was opened to public
on 1 October 2011 providing free access to all the archived data.
The individual working groups, namely flood, drought, water quality, and climate change, have progressedin their activities according to their plans. Several demonstration projects have been completed and stage

was set up for transition from research-focused phase to more operational-oriented phase in addressing
disasters and water resources management.
Capacity building activities has evolved in a solid program that has been offering a number of training
courses and seminars provided by various collaborating organizations including UNU, JAXA, ICHARM,
UT, and others. On-line tutorials are being developed for several courses that would facilitate trainees toacquire the necessary knowledge.
Major part of the meeting focused on preparation and implementation planning of the Climate Change
Assessment and Adaptation (CCAA) study. Evidence of climate change impact on water resources andwater related disasters was provided by country reports that also introduced national efforts to establish
adequate policies in coping with these impacts. Related on-going programs and activities and existing
methods and tools for climate change assessment have been reviewed and considered in the plan.
Complex, end-to-end approaches towards adaptation were also introduced and reflected in the plan.
Through an intensive discussion during breakout session, a white paper on the CCAA study has beenrevised that outlines the implementation strategy and schedule (Attachment 1 below).
The next event will be a training course focused on the rainfall bias correction and hydrological model
application in the climate change assessment that will take place in Tokyo, Japan, March 2011. It will bethheld in conjunction with other related events, namely GTN-H workshop, IGWCO workshop, and the 5
GEOSS AP Symposium that will include a parallel session on Water, which will mainly be dedicated to
AWCI.
In addition it was announced that three projects had been accepted under the APN research funding
programs that will last for two years (2010/2011 and 2011/2012). These include:
1. River Management System Development in Asia Based on Data Integration and Analysis System(DIAS) under the GEOSS by Prof. Toshio Koike, University of Tokyo.
2. Drought monitoring system development by integrating in-situ data, satellite data and numericalmodel output by Prof. Ichirow Kaihotsu, Hiroshima University.
3. Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Asia-Pacific Water Resources under GEOSS/AWCI
by Prof. Deghyo Bae, Sejong University.

Meeting Agendath

The 7 International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI)Tokyo, Japan, 5-6, October 2010
Objectives
How to promote climate change adaptations by cooperating and coordinating among different societal benefit areas,
Climate, Water cycle and Disasters, and to make plans for carrying the ideas into actions and sharing implementation
experiences.
AgendaTuesday, 5 October 2010: Meeting room An301/302, An-building, IIS, The University of Tokyo
9:00 – 9:30

Registration

9:30 – 9:50
1. Opening
T. Fukui, Ministry Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan
M. Kajii, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)Group Photo
9:50 –11:00
2. AWCI Activity Reports
2.1 Special Report on "Flood detection using SAR imagery - A case study in Pakistan." M. Shimada (JAXA)
2.2 Summary Report including Updates of the Demonstration Projects
2.3 Working Group Reports (Flood, Water Quality, Climate Change)
11:00 –11:20

th

Exhibition viewing and BREAK, Seminar room An403/404/405 (4 floor)

11:20 –12:20
3. “Capacity Building” Implementation
3.1 S. Herath (UNU)
3.2 Y. Inomata (JAXA): JAXA's capacity building activities with focus on WRM
3.3 C. Ishida (JAXA): ADB technical assistance projects for Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Philippines
3.4 K. Fukami (ICHARM): ICHARM capacity building activities
12:20 –13:20

LUNCH

13:20 –15:45 4. Flood and Climate Change
4.1 Thada Sukhapunnaphan: Thailand country report: “Flood in Upper Northern Basin of Thailand”
4.2 Surinder Kaur: “Cloudburst over LEH and flash floods”
4.3 M. Syahril B. Kusuma: “Several Challenges of Flood Control Development in Citarum River Toward MDG
2020”
4.4 Mohammad Ashfakul Islam: “Flood in Bangladesh & the Importance of Regional cooperation”
4.5 Irina Dergacheva: Uzbekistan country report
4.6 Mohd Zaki Mat Amin: “Climate Change Impacts on the hydrological and Hydraulic Performance of Bekok
and Labong Dams in Johor”
4.7 Joesron Loebis: Indonesia country report: “Flood Management related to Climate Change”
4.8 Kazuhiko Fukami: “Preliminary analysis on flash floods in the northwestern Pakistan, 2010, using satellitebased rainfall and global GIS data”
4.9 Bashir Ahmad: Pakistan country report, presented by T. Koike
4.10 Tin Aung Tun: “Water Cycle Initiative and Climate Change Impact in Myanmar”
4.11 So Im Monichoth: Cambodia country report – compiling flood and drought issues
4.12 Toshio Koike: “Multi-model applications to the assessment of the climate change impacts on floods.”
15:45 –16:05

th

Exhibition viewing and BREAK, Seminar room An403/404/405 (4 floor)

16:05 –17:20 5 Drought and Climate Change
5.1 Mafizur Rahman: “Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Drought Pattern in Bangladesh”
5.2 Dang Ngoc Tinh: “Drought, water scarcity in Vietnam for last two years”
5.3 Hansa Vathananukij: “Satellite analysis on Drought estimation in Thailand”
5.4 Edna Juanillo: “The recent El Nino Impact in the Philippine Water resources : Focus on Angat Dam”
5.5 Davaa Gombo: Mongolia country report
5.6 Patricia Ann Jaranilla-Sanchez: “Drought indices and climate change impact assessment”

17:20 –17:45
6. Water-Quality and Climate Change
6.1 Bilqis Hoque: “Impacts of 2010 drought on quality of water: An experience from Bangladesh”
6.2 Kedar Kumar Shrestha: “Hydrology and Water Quality Aspect of Bagmati River”
17:45 –18:10
7. Snow-Glacier-GLOF and Climate Change
7.1 Yukiko Hirabayashi: “Glacier Modeling”
7.2 Maheswor Shrestha: “A new model approach”, presented by T. Koike
18:30 – ICE BREAKER
Wednesday, 6 October 2010: Meeting room An301/302, An-building, IIS, The University of Tokyo
9:00 – 10:30
8. Preparation for Implementation Plan for Climate Change Assessment & Adaptation
8.1 GEOSS & APWF
:T. Koike (UT)
8.2 Guide Lines: E. Ootsuki (MLIT)
8.3 Handbook: M. Ishiwatari (JICA)
8.4 Re-analysis: K. Takahashi (JMA)
8.5 Satellite Observations: K. Imaoka (JAXA)
8.6 Water Use and Agriculture: D. Yang (TU)
10:30 – 11:30 Tour to the DIAS Core System and BREAK
11:30 – 12:30
8. Preparation for Implementation Plan for Climate Change Assessment & Adaptation continue
8.7 Data Integration: E. Ikoma, H. Kinutani (UT)8.8 Hydrological Modeling: D. Bae (SU), L. Wang (UT)
12:30 –13:30

LUNCH

13:30 – 14:00
8. Preparation for Implementation Plan for Climate Change Assessment & Adaptation continue
8.9 Socio-economic Approaches: S. Nasu (KU)
8.10 System Optimization: O. Saavedra (TITECH)
14:00 – 14:10
2. AWCI Activity Reports – completion
2.3 Drought working group report:I. Kaihotsu
14:10 – 15:30
9. Breakout Sessions for Harmonization
9.0 Introduction to White Paper and Points of Breakout Discussion
9.1 Climate Change Assessment & Adaptations – Flood
9.2 Climate Change Assessment & Adaptations – Drought
9.3 Climate Change Assessment & Adaptations – Water Quality
9.4 Climate Change Assessment & Adaptations – Snow-Glacier-GLOF
th

15:30 – 16:10 Exhibition viewing and BREAK, Seminar room An403/404/405 (4 floor)
16:10 – 17:30
10. Summary Session
10.1 Breakout Session Report
10.2 Wrap-up: Clearly define the relationship with the WG Activities and the Demonstration Projects
17:30

ADJOURN2. Full Meeting Report
2.1 Opening
The meeting was opened by Prof. T. Koike, who welcomed the participants and introduced the agenda of
the meeting. Welcome talks were given by Mr. Toshihide Fukui of the new, Environmental division of
MEXT, and Dr. Makoto Kajii, Associate Executive Director of JAXA.
Mr. Fukui advised the audience that MEXT had recognized the importance of environmental issues andthus had established the environmental division that also addresses issues associated with water cycle.
MEXT, as a body representing Japan on GEO and GEOSS, greatly appreciates and endorses AWCI
activities that represent implementation of GEOSS principles in the water area on the regional basis andcontribute tremendously to the overall GEOSS success. The AWCI achievements have also been wellacknowledged and recognized by being nominated as one of the showcase success programs in Asia for
the Beijing GEO Ministerial meeting in November 2010. Mr. Fukui congratulated the AWCI participants forthese successes and wished the group fruitful meeting and continued momentum in their efforts.
Dr. Kajii also appreciated outstanding achievements of the AWCI group led by Prof. Koike andcontribution to the GEOSS agenda. He emphasized that JAXA is pleased to see such meaningful
exploitation of their earth observation data. JAXA is currently operating ALOS comprising the mostadvance earth observation technology and covering the earth globally with global usage of its data. ALOS
2 is under preparation and with a number of other systems focused on climate variables, EOS will provide
a unique opportunity to address the climate change issues in the near future. JAXA wishes for continued
collaboration with the AWCI community and welcomes its further suggestions in terms of requested
observation and associated services.
2.2 AWCI Activity Review
The AWCI activity review session was opened by a special JAXA report on the August Pakistan flood
detection using ScanSAR imagery that demonstrated high value of the satellite data in detecting andsubsequent assessment and management of such large-scale disasters and also showed theeffectiveness of the AWCI regional collaborative framework that facilitated an immediate cooperation
between JAXA and Pakistan Meteorological Department and Pakistan Agricultural Council under theSentinel Asia program. The data was also provided to ADB and World Bank for early disaster damage
assessment. Dr. Shimada, who presented the report, explained specifics and capabilities of the ScanSAR
imagery technique and described several sensors borne on the ALOS satellite. The PALSAR sensor data
was used for the Pakistan case, monitoring the evolution of the flood since its occurring in the upper
reaches of the Indus river at the beginning of August through its reaching the downstream in September.
The same technique was also used for monitoring the oil spill in Gulf of Mexico earlier in 2010 and canalso be applied to monitor and evaluate forest changes in Brazil Amazonia.
AWCI Demonstration Project Review
thMain themes and outcomes of the 6 AWCI ICG meeting in Bali, March 2010 were reiterated. In particular,
11-year history of the GEOSS Water efforts and almost 5-year history of GEOSS/AWCI were reviewed,
pointing out the main events and achievements. The recent AWCI focus on climate change impact
assessment and adaptation was emphasized, reiterating the end-to-end approach toward the issues thatis only possible through integration of scientific, engineering and socio-economic approaches. Accordingly,socio-economic and policy aspects have been given full attention at the recent AWCI events andrespected experts in this arena invited fir further cooperation.
The AWCI demonstration projects in member countries were initiated as early as in 2007 in order to kickoff the data collection efforts, carry out a particular study in each nominated basin focused on its specificissues (floods, droughts, water quality…) and demonstrate the benefits of open data sharing policy andadvanced data systems like DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) for promoting and implementing
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) practices. A substantial progress was reported in thedata submission and quality control efforts as it is shown in the Figure 1. These data are now freely
accessible
throughtheDIAS
systemavailableat:
http://www.editoria.utokyo.ac.jp/dias/link/portal/english_index.html that was opened to public on 1 October 2010. In addition to
the data collection progress, a number of valuable findings and conclusions resulted from thedemonstration projects that were reported in later sessions of the meeting and contributed to several
publications in peer-reviewed journals. These include for example:- Snowfall-melt-runoff prediction and Climate Change Assessment System in Nepal- Integrated Drought Monitoring and Climate Change Assessment System in Philippines- Soil Moisture Observation by PALSAR, Cambodia- Inundation Prediction System in Hue, Vietnam- Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources over the AWCI Korean Demonstration
Basin- CMIP3 Climate projection model output analysis in different AWCI river basins
Also a set of capacity building programs were developed for training of practitioners in these techniques.

Figure 1: Status of the AWCI demonstration basin data submission and quality control
Flood WG Activity Report
1. The flood WG has completed two-year project funded by APN’s ARCP program called “Flood Risk
Management Demonstration Project (Phase 1) under the Asian Water Cycle Initiative for the Global Earth
Observation System of Systems” that was focused on “building up a scientific basis for sound decisionmaking and developing policy options for most suitable flood risk management for each country andregion in Asia, through the full utilization of new opportunities on global, regional and in-situ dataset under
the scheme of AWCI,” and as such covered the first phase of the flood group demonstration project. The
main objectives included:

(i)converting observations and data, both through space-borne platforms and data integration
initiatives, to usable information for flood reduction(ii)
improving quantitative forecasts for coupled precipitation - flood-forecasting systems(iii)
facilitate risk assessment through the provision of scenarios and data for exposure estimation.
The course of activities and results of the project were to be documented in detail in the Final report thatwas subsequently submitted to APN. The main achievements included promising technologies andpractices for the future sustainable flood risk management. Most typical new technologies developed
and/or validated through those activities are WEB-DHM, DRESS & FLOWSS of UT, IFAS of ICHARM,RegHCM-PM of NAHRIM, and so forth. Through repetitive meetings, discussions and cooperative
activities, advanced technologies and many other innovative practices have been also shared among all
the members of Flood WG of GEOSS-AWCI, which will be expected to lead to updating and enhancing avariety of science- & data-based foundations toward sound decision-making and developing policy
options for effective flood disaster risk reduction in Asia.
2. Other major activities of the flood group since 2007 were reiterated that included generic template fordemonstration projects in GEO on use of satellite information for flood risk management, identification ofmember countries’ needs and resources for capacity building, holding several training courses andworkshops focused on application of new technologies for flood forecasting, monitoring, and management
like GFAS, IFAS, and others, and presenting and publication of research and activity results at AWCI
meetings as well as international conferences (e.g. APHW 2008 in Beijing).
3. Short- and mid- term plans for post-APN project activities were reiterated. Short-term:(i)continue in-situ observations to get enough validation data(ii)
improve the demonstration systems/scenarios and to make final validations of them with thearchived & analyzed data(i)(iii)develop capacity building tools for shifting the demonstration systems to operational ones
for the next-stage AWCI.
Mid-term:(i)(ii)

promote each demonstration project of each member country according to its own specificobjectives and the dissemination of its achievements through papers/presentations(ii) identify and share any problems to promote demonstration projects, and to support how tocope with them through our mutual cooperation, so that we will figure out what the next action
should be, toward their operational uses;

Drought WG Activity Report
The four main objectives of the drought WG were reiterated:(i)to build up a drought monitoring and researching network of member Asian countries(ii)
to share and improve the drought monitoring data/capability in various Asian countries(iii)
to make a collaboration with the demonstration projects studying climate change(iv)
to help developing the early warning system of drought hazard in member countries.
The current status summarized that includes efforts on: (i) building the envisioned data bank, (ii) providing
the routine soil moisture data (filling the data gaps), (iii) planning to move forward with practical approach,and (iv) demonstrating the system.
1. Data bank and soil moisture monitoring
The group is building up a drought monitoring and research networks and the data bank of member Asian
countries for AWCI. The drought monitoring network includes several ongoing monitoring sites in strong
cooperation with CEOP efforts (Mongolia, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Tsukuba(Japan), and Thailand) and also plans for future potential sites that, however, need more discussion(Setouchi (Japan), west-Thailand, central Bangladesh). The “Network of Asia Drought Research” is being
planned and preparatory initiatives are ongoing to engage related researchers and organization in acoordinated approach toward the drought research in the region.

The data bank consists of soil moisture and soil temperature in-situ observations from a number ofparticipating sites, meteorological data (CEOP reference sites), and satellite data (AMSR-E SM, MODIS
data/CEOP satellite data subsets for its reference sites). Except for the CEOP data, which are freely
accessible through the internet, the data is available for research/operational use upon request (Kaihotsu,
Rasul). The participating observation sites include:- Mongolia: CEOP reference sites since 2001 (SM and ST at the 4 depths; multiple stations),
NAMHEM SM data (every 5 cm depth from the surface to the 1m depth; more than 30 stations)- China: Shanxi Province, 108 stations, meteorological data and ST data 6-hourly, SM once per 10days, 3 layers (2006-2007)- Pakistan: Soil moisture data available for 4 stations (10-day SM data at 9 depths in 2002- 2006)- Bangladesh: 9 soil moisture stations (weekly SM data at 5 depths in 2007). Regularly providing thein situ monitoring data of soil moisture will begin in 2011.)- Vietnam, Binh Thuan Province: 3 surface meteorological stations, one of them includes soil
temperature observation, no soil moisture.
The in-situ soil moisture data of the bank is also used for validation of AMSR-E soil moisturemeasurement algorithm (Fig.2).

Figure 2: AMSR/AMSR-E validation project area and RAISE project area in Mongolia

2. Practical approach and system demonstration
The group is analyzing the obtained soil moisture and other data from a view point of drought study inclimate change and also conducting numerical model studies addressing drought and its prediction. Inaddition, further study of definitions of drought is being carried out considering practical applications. The
group also supports the in situ drought monitoring activities.
Demonstration projects had been initiated to show the benefits of the coordinated approaches pursued by
the drought group. As part of the DP in Pakistan, two AWSs and four rain gauges had been installed in the
Indus river basin that will contribute the data to the envisioned network. In Mongolia, a number ofactivities are carried out as part of DP including: water balance studies in the Selbe river basin, NDVI
analysis over the whole Mongolia, and soil moisture estimation by AMSR-E and MIRAS (SMOS) in the
Mongolian plateau. The DP activities are also being reviewed in relation to climate change and based on
the current results, adaptation activities are being considered.
3. APN supported projects(i) The drought WG has completed two-year project funded by APN’s CAPaBLE program named: “TheCapacity Building for Drought Monitoring and Studying in Monsoon Asia under the Framework of Asian
Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI)” that focused mainly on “setting up a drought monitoring and researchworking group and the scientific supporting team to provide advices on retrieval of remote sensing dataand ground validation as well as on collecting ground observation data related to drought monitoring fromparticipating countries.” The course of activities and results of the project were to be documented in detailin the Final report that was subsequently submitted to APN.
(ii) In 2010, the group was successful in proposing further two-year project under the APN APN’sCAPaBLE program named: “Drought monitoring system development by integrating in-situ data, satellite
data and numerical model output,” focusing on establishing and development of an integrating system of
in-situ data, satellite data and numerical model outputs related to drought in order to facilitate prediction,
monitoring, assessment, and management of droughts in the region.
4. Future plans of the drought group include:- Continuing to collect the data of soil moisture, meteorological elements and numerical model
products- Promoting demonstration projects- Developing the early warning system for climate change adaptation (results expected be publishedwithin 2011)- Discussion on the investigation of the potential sites and then the installation plan of a newmonitoring station of drought in Thailand and Bangladesh- Scientific supporting team meeting/APN CAPaBLE project meeting (As “Asia Drought WS 2011”) in
Hiroshima (January 2011)
Water Quality Activity Report
The Water Quality Group reported on ongoing activities that include:- Demonstration project on sustainable water management in the Huong river basin in Vietnam- A multi-disciplinary research on quality of water in water related hazards and local responses- Attempts to explore ways to connect water quality related activities to other AWCI and GEOSS
activities
1. Demonstration project in the Hong river basin, Vietnam
The project includes three main components:(i)
Multi-scale modeling of hydrological situation: evaluation of effects of river flow/floods in the
Hue city using the distributed hydrological model(ii)
Water quality evaluation during flood/inundation situations: evaluation of inundation in theurban area of the Hue city using the output of (i) and the urban sewerage system model,
considering water pollution phenomena;(iii)
Health risk evaluation after flood events: estimation of possible risk of spreading of pathogens
due to the polluted water flooding in the city based on the output of 2) and using the risk
assessment model2. The multi-disciplinary research on water quality
The goal is to contribute to the effective incorporation of WQ/environmental and societal issues into flood,
droughts, climate change adaptation and other activities by AWC/GEOSS. In particular to conduct
research on WQ/environmental/societal issues in floods, droughts and in other events related to climatechange in different countries under AWCI. The work has begun in Bangladesh focusing on drought-water
quality linkages. First results of the April – May 2010 drought period survey indicated deterioration ofwater quality determinants that together with the limited water availability contributed to the severe socioeconomic drought. The respective water quality and socio-economic drought was more serious in adrought prone region.
3. Linkages with other AWCI activities
Efforts are ongoing that include: (i) identification of hydrological models that can be coupled with water
quality models, (ii) exploring possibilities to use remote sensing data for water quality issues and anaccess to such data for watershed management monitoring, and (iii) utilizing on-going capacity building
initiatives to help water quality experts to use satellite data/explore collaboration with other groups.
Climate Change Activity Report
The group reviewed its activities since its establishment in 2008 when the climate change and its impacts
on water cycle has been widely recognized by AWCI participating countries as an important issue thatwas cross-cutting all the AWCI activities and deserved full attention. Through a pilot study on climatechange impact assessment and adaptation strategies on Korean water resources including the Koreandemonstration basin that proposed a method to reduce the uncertainties of climate change impact
assessment, a strategy has been proposed for similar studies over other AWCI basins. The strategy
highlights the importance of local hydrological data for global climate change on water resources.
thth

The strategy was further discussed at the 5 and 6 AWCI ICG meetings (Tokyo 2009 and Bali 2010,
resp.) focusing on three specific areas of typhoon and induced floods, droughts, and snow and glacierphenomena. This has resulted in the overall AWCI activity plan for so called Climate Change Assessment
and Adaptation (CCAA) Study that was introduced at the Bali meeting and further elaborated for
discussions during this meeting as mentioned in the second part of this report.
The group also submitted a proposal to the APN’s ARCP programme in 2009 for a two-year project
named “Climate change impact assessment on the Asia-Pacific water resources under GEOSS/AWCI”
that was approved for APN funding in 2010. The main objectives include:- To evaluate the climate change impact assessments on water resources over the Asia-pacificregions joining GEOSS/AWCI- To promote the capacity building for climate change impact assessment technology
The main scope of activities for Year 1 and Year 2 of the project are described in Figure 3. The expected
outcomes include:- Technical report and scientific paper on the recent trends of hydrologic and climate variables over
the Asia-Pacific regions(1st Year)- Technical report and scientific paper on climate change impact assessment on water resources over
the Asia-Pacific regions under GEOSS/AWCI frame work (2nd Year)- Capacity building for hydrologic impact assessment of climate change (1st & 2nd Years)
In order to implement the planned activities, the project will organize two or three working groups
including data collection and quality control, data analysis, hydrologic modeling with downscaling scheme.
Scientific advising/supporting team will be necessary. Regarding the data, those stored on Data
Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) will be used for each country’s demonstration basin. In addition,
long-term data, especially long-term (normally more than 20-30 years) daily T, P and Q and hourly data
even short periods are necessary. Accordingly, CC working group expects each country will provide theirlong-term data in the first period from 10-2010 to 02-2011 for the preliminary analysis that includes MannKendall test, linear regression and other analysis to detect the climate change variability before next
meeting. Additional data will be provided in the second period from 04-2011 to 06-2011 for the 1st and2nd year tasks.

Figure 3: Climate change group APN-funded project activities.

Capacity Building Implementation
A good progress was reported in the capacity building activities. A summary table of main training
programs offered by AWCI participating organization was presented and is shown in Figure 4. These
programs are provided either on a regular basis or occasionally when needs for such programs arerecognized. The full, updated version of the table is available at:
http://cecar.org/groups/awci/wiki/204e3/Resources_Availability_Table.html

Figure 4 Capacity Building Activity Summary

1. Recent Capacity Development Activity of UNU
Two main activities were reported by UNU-ISP (Institute for Sustainability and Peace): (i) building
resilience to climate change and (ii) development of web tutorials.
The UNU-ISP has been involved in the University Network for Climate and Ecosystems Change
Adaptation Research (UN-CECAR; http://cecar.unu.edu) that was established in 2009 by leading
universities in the Asia Pacific region to strengthen the higher education sector to respond effectively to
climate and ecosystems change. UN-CECAR activities on development of a common curriculum, joint
research, and a needs assessment has been progressing. The curriculum focuses on three themes
including (i) science of climate and ecosystems change, (ii) adaptation and mitigation, and (iii) impacts
and vulnerabilities, and two detailed courses have already been developed by the consortium of
universities by taking modules from 21 syllabi. The courses have been tested by UNU and released foruse by member institutions. First full round was organized at UNU from 13 September through 1 October2010 that included two courses of two credits and in which 33 students of different background from 19
countries participated and successfully completed by an exam and a paper. The details of the program
are available through the CECAR home page mentioned above. The course will be provided at UNU in
April 2011 again and then will be offered to other CECAR institutions.
Web tutorials to improve and shorten the capacity development training programs as introduced at theBali meeting have been under construction in two application areas, namely (i) simple GIS applications
for water resources assessment – in collaboration with ESRI and (ii) a template for climate change impactassessment and adaptation strategy design that is based on outcomes of current research. Testing of thetutorials will begin in early 2011 and since they are “WIKI” based, they can be improved by participants. In
addition to supporting the training programs, the tutorials will also be useful in implementing
demonstration projects.
2. Capacity Building at JAXAJAXA has a long history in capacity building activities in the Asia-Pacific region focusing mainly on use of
JAXA’s satellite data. The overview of these activities is given in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Overview of JAXA’s CB activities.
In addition to specific activities provided directly to AWCI community, the programs related to andsupporting AWCI activities include: (i) Mini Projects, (ii) Oceanic Mini-Projects, and (iii) Specialized
Training in Japan for Mini-Projects’ High Achievers.
The Mini-Project program (http://web-tutorials.tksc.jaxa.jp/gic-ait/index.html) was launched in cooperation
with Geo-Informatics Center of the Asian Institute of Technology (GIC-AIT) in Bangkok, Thailand in 1995
and has since involved more than 1300 trainees from 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The miniprojects, focused on application of satellite data and GIS technology, have three phases, two 4-weekcourses at AIT, Bangkok and a one-week field work in each participating country. In 2010, 9 out of the 23
proposals were accepted that cover a range of issues including flood, drought, landslides, habitat
evaluation, impact of urbanization, coastal erosion, and Japanese encephalitis.
From FY 2009, JAXA has entrusted a responsibility to carry out the two Oceanic Mini-Projects to theCenter for Remote Sensing & Ocean Sciences (CReSOS) of the Udayana University located on theIndonesian island of Bali. Participating organizations also include the Indonesian National Institute of
Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) and the Ministry for Marine Affairs and Fisheries (DKP). The mini-project
themes are (i) study of coral reef and mangrove distribution from satellite data and (ii) study of climate

change monitoring using satellite data and data archive system in Indonesia. Further oceanic themes
have been made available in 2010 (http://web-tutorials.tksc.jaxa.jp/pdf/Oceanicic%20Mini-Projects.pdf).
From the JFY2008, JAXA started to invite once a year some of the high achievers of the Mini-Projects
both in Thailand and Indonesia to Japan in order to let them have another training opportunity in theirrespective fields in cooperation with some institutes and universities in Japan that include University ofTokyo, Kyoto University, Keio University, Hokkaido University, United Nations University, and ICHARM.
Capacity
development
activities
arealso
providedbytheSentinelAsia(https://sentinel.tksc.jaxa.jp/sentinel2/topControl.action), which is a voluntary basis initiative led by the
APRSAF (Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum) to support disaster management activity in the
Asia-Pacific region by applying the WEB-GIS technology and space based technology, such as earth
observation satellites data. In order to convey how to operate Sentinel Asia system and how to utilize
earth observation satellite data, JAXA has so far held the Sentinel Asia System Operation Training for six
times. In these training sessions, JAXA explains through lectures how to use the new Step-2 system
including the activation of Emergency Observation. Lectures and hands-on training for the utilization ofearth observation satellite data are made by the lecturers from Data Provider Nodes and Data Analysis
Nodes. The principles of the Sentinel Asia program were utilized during the Pakistan flood in August 2010.
Furthermore, JAXA is cooperating with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to implement various capacity
development activities. Recent events/activities included:- GIS and Satellite Data for Asia” workshop hosted by ADB and CSTP in October 2009
- Field survey in Bangladesh, Vietnam and Phillippines, January – June 2010
- Presidents of ADB and JAXA concluded LOI (Letter of Intent) , at ADB HQ, July 2010 with potential
cooperative fields that are consistent with the main AWCI agenda:o Disaster managemento Climate change adaptationo Water resources managemento Forest monitoring- Cooperation for Pakistan disaster damage assessment (ongoing)- Technical Assistance project for the flood warning system improvement for the three countries(Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam) is to start in 2011
3. Capacity Building at ICHARMICHARM has been implementing a set of capacity development activities including short training courses,
aftercare programs for implementation at trainees local communities, master course program on waterrelated disaster management with the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), as well as a
PhD course to foster researchers who can guide and supervise researchers and research projects onwater-related disaster risk management (since 2010). The main focus of the ICHARM capacity
development activities is to deliver the best available knowledge to local practitioners. With this goal,
several training courses on Global Flood Alert System (GFAS) validation and Integrated Flood Analysis
System (IFAS) have been organized in Japan and other countries. The GFAS
(http://gfas.internationalfloodnetwork.org/gfas-web/) workshops objective is capacity development for
local practitioners to validate GFAS rainfall and translate it to GFAS-streamflow (IFAS) in ungaged or
poorly gaged basins. IFAS is a toolkit to implement GFAS – Streamflow and provides a basis for flood
forecasting/warning system. The most recent event on IFAS training was the IFAS seminar in Myanmar inJune 2010, at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Transportation. Over the threedays, 15 participants were working with the system using demo as well as local data and produced apreliminary runoff analysis at the Hkamti Station in the Chindwin River.
After the CB reports, a small discussion session took place that investigated needs and possibilities forcertain training events and or other capacity building requirements in the AWCI countries. Several
proposals were made, some of which can be submitted under the existing programs of JAXA, UNU,ICHARM, and UT as specified above. In addition, the need for data quality check, adequate archiving,and integration was reported by Indonesia. The UT can provide software tools to address these issues
and a training course for their use can be organized.

2.3 Climate Change Study Focus
Climate change related issues and studies in the AWCI countries
As a background for further development of the AWCI Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation(CCAA) study, a session focusing on climate change related issues and assessment/adaptation activities
in the AWCI countries was organized at the meeting. It was divided into four subsections consideringmain themes of the planned CCAA study, i.e. flood, drought, snow and glaciers, and water quality. Totally,
22 contributions were presented, 12 of which fell into the flood session, 6 into the drought session, andthe snow and glaciers, and the water quality sessions had each 2 contributions.
A variety of issues were reported during these presentations and it was indicated that impact of climatechange on frequency and magnitude of these issues needed to be properly assessed and possible
adaptation plans and mitigation measures investigated. The need for regional collaboration in thisendeavor that should be extended from the assessment analyses to the water resources management
policies and adaptation plans was stressed out several times, pointing out the large number oftransboundary basins in the region. While all country representatives reported evidence of climate change
impact on water resources, there is also evidence that the changes and impacts are not explicit but
regionally dependent (e.g. glacier melt vs. increase). Impact assessment techniques have already beendeveloped and applied in some countries that will be provided for the planned CCAA study.
1. Flood session
In the flood-focused session, Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and Myanmar reported on thenature of the flood hazard as well as most recent disasters in their countries and introduced country
concepts for flood forecasting, flood warning systems and flood disaster management and mitigation
approaches. India reported on a unique and very local phenomena of cloud burst that appeared in 2010
in otherwise rather dry area and that was unexpected since such events are not predictable with current
skills of NWP systems and actual rain intensities were also unobserved due to lack of raingauges in thisrural area. Indonesia also reported on various policies and activities approved and undertaken by thegovernment to reduce the causes of climate change, in particular reducing GHG emissions. Malaysia
presented a study to assess impact of climate change on hydraulic and hydrological performance, inwhich the Regional Hydro-Climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) developed by the
NAHRIM Institute was applied using the Canadian GCM1 output. The first results suggested worsening of
both, the flood and drought situations but it was stressed out that:“Climate modeling is not a very precise science and the results therefore cannot be taken
as being very accurate but serves to tell us whether climate change has significant
consequences to projects and thereafter the authorities concerned can at least be
forewarned of possible outcome of the climate change phenomena.”
The issue of the climate projection model output uncertainties was addressed in the presentation by the
University of Tokyo team on multi-model applications to the assessment of the climate change impacts on
floods that provided analyses of climate change impact assessment using 12 CMIP3 model outputs in Sri
Lanka and Japan. Cambodia and Pakistan reported on the flood issues related possibly to climatechange and on studies focused on assessment of the climate change impact on water resources.
Cambodia is utilizing the water resources assessment and management support system developed incooperation with University of Tokyo that includes dynamical downscaling of GCM output coupled withhydrological modeling yielding soil moisture estimation. The results are used for addressing farming andwater allocation issues. In addition, a case study was presented by ICHARM on analysis of the August2010 Pakistan flood using combination of satellite-based rainfall and global GIS data with the IFAS
system that showed a very high potential to make prompt flood analyses even in poorly‐gauged river
basins. Nevertheless, it was also highlighted that without any in‐situ (ground‐truth) data, such integrated
information & analysis cannot be assured, verified nor improved and thus it is essential to combine theabove method with the in-situ observations.
2. Drought session
Country representatives of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Mongolia, and Philippines reported on severe,
prolonged and large-scale droughts occurring currently in their countries. While most of these countries
are usually battling with floods, flash floods, and landslides, it was felt that drought is a slow, silent

disaster, which in the long run will have a more profound impact on peoples' livelihoods, in particular inthese agricultural countries. In Vietnam and Philippines, the main reason for drought conditions is astrong El Nino situation and it was noted that better knowledge of relationship between climate change
and ENSO phenomena would be essential to improve capability to predict droughts in these countries. A
comprehensive study on various drought indices assessment in the Pampanga river basin in Philippines
and assessment of climate change impact on drought using the CMIP3 climate projection coupled with
distributed hydrological model was presented in which a standardized anomaly index was developed tointegrate multiple aspects in the drought quantification. Thailand presented a study in which capabilities of
their Hydroinformatic system procedures developed for floods were also tested for analyzing a droughtrisk. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from MODIS Terra was considered throughspatial and temporal analysis (layering and weighting method with hydrometeorological factors) on
monitoring area and the results showed good agreement with observed situation in the Northern Thailand,
where the drought is more severe and probably related to the effects of climate change. A comprehensive
assessment of spatial and temporal drought pattern was also carried out in Bangladesh that focused on
characterization and quantification of drought severity, drought vulnerability, and damage andprioritization of potential adaptation measures against drought. The results showed moderate to highvulnerability to drought in the country, depending on the region. While hydrological drought is being
observed in Mongolia, in particular in steppe and desert steppe zones, with decreasing number of smalland extremely small lakes, river runoff is actually increasing in the glacier- and permafrost-fed rivers andsimultaneously, total glacier area is decreasing. Mongolia has a government-approved National Water
Program that includes intensification of environment monitoring, integrated river basin management, as
well as climate change adaptation strategies.
3. Water Quality session
Bangladesh and Nepal reported on pressing water quality issues and connections of water quality towater quantity. In case of Nepal, the main concern is extremely high pollution of the Baghmati river in the
Kathmandu valley due to municipal and industrial waste being directly discharged into the rivers. Abouthalf of industrial productions operate in the upper Baghmati basin and the relatively dense population
along the valley produces large amount of solid waste that is not properly treated and is polluting thevalley. The result is chemically and bacteriologically unfit water for any kind of freshwater fauna and flora
or irrigation. The water quality improves when discharge considerably increases due to monsoon rains or
downstream, when diluted with fresh water of cleaner tributaries. A set of mitigation measures have beensuggested. In Bangladesh, a formative research study was conducted to incorporate water quality aspectin assessment of socio-economic drought. A set of water quality parameters were investigated during dry
season in rivers as well as ponds in two locations, one of which was drought-prone, the second one
drought and flood prone. The results indicated that if the water quality determinants are considered,severe socio-economic drought may occur even though the quantity of water itself is not limiting. The
worst situation was in the drought-prone area.
4. Snow and Glacier session
During this session, modeling activities focusing on snow and glacier phenomena were introduced. A
global glacier “Hyoga” model operating with 0.5 degree spatial resolution, 50 m vertical resolution ofsnowpack and glaciers, and a daily time step was developed at the University of Tokyo. The empiricaldegree-day factor is used to calculate snowpack and glacier melt but more accurate energy balancemethod is under development. The model was calibrated against climatology of measured mass balance
and applied to estimate global glacier mass changed over the past 60 years. The model can be applied
for future glacier change estimation using the climate model projections, however, there are several
limitations that need to be considered, i.e. uncertainty of current total glacier volume due to lack of precise
observation, simple mass balance method, and limited validation possibilities. Nevertheless, the model
has a great potential for the AWCI climate change study in the snow and glacier areas. In addition, a newsnowfall-snowmelt-runoff model is under development based on the energy balance scheme. Preliminary
assessments of the model showed good performance in snowcover simulation against satellite
observation. The model has a potential of coupling with the abovementioned glacier model and as such
would be applicable in the snow and glacier regions.

Preparation for Implementation Plan
In this session, a number of programs, frameworks, projects, activities, as well as tools, methods andtechnologies were introduced that are related to the AWCI climate change focus and should beconsidered in the CCAA study implementation planning.
Firstly, the key role of GEO and GEOSS – the global, coordinated, comprehensive, and sustained systemof observing systems – and its data and information principles were emphasized. It provides a niceframework not only for the AWCI activities and those AWCI countries, which had not joined GEO yet, wereasked to consider such a step. The Governing Council of another relevant framework, the Asia-PacificWater Forum, established a Steering Group on Water and Climate Change in June 2009 that is tasked
with (i) advising leaders on policies and practices, (ii) guiding knowledge networking in the region, and (iii)
reporting progress annually to the leaders in the Asia-Pacific region with recommendations for action. The
steering group operates with five principles:
1. Scientists and practitioners working together must prioritize the development ofknowledge that supports effective actions and increases public awareness.
2. We must identify and implement approaches that improve water security over a wide
range of potential conditions, including current climate variability.
3. We must build the capacity of society to demonstrate resilience in the face of changing
climate.
4. We must adopt optimal combinations of measures.
5. Substantial increases in dedicated financing are required.
These principles translate into specific recommended actions that are described in the Framework
Document at: http://www.apwf.org/weblog/public_html/weblog/information/archives/201011/000034.php.
The River Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation, Japan introduced Practical
Guidelines on Strategic Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Flood Disasters that are based on thecommon background in the Asia-Pacific region including seasonal distribution of rain, dense urban
development in low-lying flood-prone areas, frequent typhoons and cyclones, etc. The guidelines, issued
also as a booklet, aim to describe a framework for procedures to develop adaptation measures against
the increases in the intensity and frequency of floods caused by climate change and to support thedecision making to secure the sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific Region in overcoming theflood risks. The concept follows a flexible approach to optimize the combination of adaptation measuresconsidering future uncertainties and need for regular feedback, i.e. “climbing-a-spiral” approach (Fig. 6),

Figure 6: Scheme of climbing-up spiral approach.

targeting 100-year period. The IPCC projections of future rainfall intensities are reflected in the adaptation
procedures consisting of combination of structural and non-structural, i.e. management measures. The
booklet is available at:
http://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_info/english/pdf/Practical_Guideline_on_Strategic_Climate_Change_Ada
ptation_Planning_E.pdf
Similar approach towards climate change adaptation (CCA) was adopted by Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) in their Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector. Their
proposed method is schematically shown in Figure 7. The method considers that the stationarity in thehydrological cycle is no more valid due to changing climate and is developed along five basics concepts:
1. Human security: focusing on individuals, particularly the most vulnerable
2. Engagement with the society: engaging with the society as a whole, including policymakers anddecision makers
3. Building a sustainable adaptive society: resiliently cope with a changing climate whose prediction
entails uncertainty
4. Disaster risk management: with the focus on the society's vulnerabilities, especially associatedwith urbanization, and adaptive capacity
5. “Zero victim” goal of flood control: (i) protecting critical areas using structures, (ii) no settlement indisaster hazard areas, and (iii) coping with unavoidable inundation with CBDM.

Figure 7: JICA’s climate change adaptation planning scheme
The method was applied at two cases in Philippines that resulted in revised plans for flood protections
putting more focus on non-structural measures, in particular on land use management and communitybased risk management. The experience showed that various local solutions are required for adaptation.

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) introduced the system, purposes and potential application of reanalyses in CCAA studies as well as the status of the latest JMA re-analysis (JRA-25, and JRA-55). The
re-analysis process is schematically shown in Figure 8. Since the re-analyses provide homogeneous dataof the earth climate system, they are very useful in multiple applications including climate monitoring,worldwide extreme events monitoring, seasonal forecasts, analysis of energy and water cycle, providing
forcing for ocean models and regional and meso-scale atmospheric models, etc. It can also be used for in
re-examination of past extreme events that are important for assessment of climate change and its
impacts.

Figure 8: Scheme of the re-analysis production process.
JAXA introduced their satellites and sensors relevant for the energy and water cycle that include TRMM
PR, Aqua AMSR-E, DAICHI (ALOS), and IBUKI (GOSAT) from those in operation and several others to
be launched in a few next years. Examples of observation products by these sensors were presented thatindicated a wide range of applications in the water cycle field. Aside from standard GCOS products like
precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover, land cover, cloud properties and others, more complex products
and services were introduced including the Global Rainfall Map in near-real time (4-hours delay) using
TRMM, AMSR-E and other satellite data, and the JAXA Satellite Monitoring for Environment Study(JASMES) (Fig. 9). The way how to obtain the JAXA earth observation data using the Earth Observation

Figure 9: JAXA Satellite Monitoring for Environmental Study

Research Center (EORC) website was explained (http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/). In particular, individual
categories of JAXA products can be found at following sites:- Standard Product: http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/about/distribution/index.html (All products, except ALOS
and GOSAT, can be used by registration)- Research Product (not limited to below), Browse Images:
o AMSR-E (http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/AMSR/index.html)
o GSMaP (http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/index_j.htm)
o JASMES (http://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/index.html)- CEOP Satellite Data Gateway (http://www.ceop.net)
The following presentation provided some suggestions for the CCAA study implementation plan thatshould focus on narrowing the gap between scientific capacities and society needs (large uncertainties ofprojections vs. need of accurate predictions). This was illustrated by climate change impacts analyses onwater and agriculture in China. Analysis of past observations showed increasing trend in drought
frequency and a pilot study of future climate change impacts was conducted using 17 GCM projections.
The results indicated more severe droughts in certain basins while opposite trend in other basins. Thechanges in rainfed crop yields were also calculated. As also mentioned by other presenters, due touncertainties in climate model projections, the results are not conclusive but only indicative and this need
to be addressed in CCAA efforts. Accordingly, the following was suggested for the AWCI CCAA
implementation planning:- development of assessment models/tools for water management policy-making (need to predictmean and extreme, trend and variability; and to quantify uncertainties)- long-term forecast of flood and drought for natural disaster prevention (GCM/RCM outputs notreliable for this purpose at this stage)- better infrastructure operation considering prediction uncertainty (optimization schemes including
input uncertainties)- prediction of the agricultural water use (simulation of water-CO2-nitrogen cycle is necessary)
An infrastructure (dam) operation optimization scheme that considers uncertainty of predicted rainfall
values was developed through cooperative efforts of UT and Tokyo Institute of Technology (TITECH) andintroduced at the meeting. This Dam Release Support System (DRESS) aims to support decisions on
dam releases during flood with the two-fold goal: (i) reduction of flood peak, and (ii) storing water for later
use. It employs the WEB-DHM hydrological model that is forced with quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) data. The forecast error is assessed for past forecasts against available observation andintroduced through current forecast perturbations making thus ensemble of QPF. The system was tested
in the Upper Tone river basin in Japan during several heavy rainfall events. The suggested operations
resulted in reduced flood peaks as well as maximized water storage in reservoirs for a later use. Similar
approach for prediction error assessment and consideration is used in another scheme targeted for timely
flood warning (Flood Warning Support System – FLOWSS). It uses real-time rain gauge data, quasi-realtime satellite precipitation data, and regional forecast data to force the WEBH-DHM in the lead time,
giving thus prediction of river flows. This scheme was successfully tested in the Huong river basin.
The concept, structure and use of the Water and Energy Budget Distributed Hydrological Model (WEBDHM) was also introduced, focusing on applications for improved integrated water resourcesmanagement. The model was developed as a combination of the advanced land surface scheme SiB2
and a robust distributed hydrological model with some substantial improvements in the soil scheme. Overa few past years, the WEB-DHM has been improved in several ways including frozen soil
parameterization and snow physics and has also been used in a number of water resources assessment
studies focusing on floods and droughts, as well as combined with the abovementioned DRESS andFLOWSS schemes for flood warning and dam release decision support. It has already been used for the
climate change impact assessment in some of the AWCI countries, e.g. Philippines in case of drought (aspresented in the Drought session above.

The role of hydrological modeling in the climate change impact assessment was explained andrecommendations from this viewpoint for the AWCI CCAA implementation plan given. The generalprocess of the climate change impact assessment and adaptation studies is schematically shown in
Figure 10. There are a number of hydrological models available in the world that have been applied inclimate change studies and that employ various approaches towards individual hydrological processes
like evapotranspiration, soil water, and river routing. Several models have been tested on Korean basins
and it was concluded that in some cases (like a winter season), uncertainties from a hydrological model
itself may be even higher than those from input data from GCM projections. Nevertheless, it wasemphasized that uncertainties exists in the whole CCA process, the GCM output being usually the main
source, except specific cases as shown in the Korean study, and downscaling procedures being anothersource. Therefore multi-model ensemble analyses (Fig. 11) are indispensable in the CCA studies. Also a

Figure 10: General process of the climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies
on water resources

Figure 11: A schematic diagram of a multi-model ensemble analysis

regionalization method for hydrological model parameter estimation in ungauged basins was introduced
that may be useful for some basins of the AWCI CCAA study. The major expected outcomes of the
impact assessment part of the CCAA study would be annual variations of water cycle components underA2 climate change scenario, changes in seasonal runoff and variations of extreme events. The individual
implementation steps are shown in Figure 12.

Figure 12: A schematic diagram CCAA implementation steps

The data integration tools including raw data uploading system, data quality control system, and metadata
registration system and their use were introduced with highlighting improvements from previous versions
and a good progress in the AWCI data submission, quality check and metadata provision was reported. It
was emphasized that with opening the DIAS system to public on 1 October (http://www.editoria.utokyo.ac.jp/dias/link/portal/english_index.html), all the AWCI data submitted under the AWCI data sharing
policy was now freely available for download. At the same time, users have access to numerous otherdatasets from various sources. The DIAS system and how it access and download data was explained indetail and participants were encouraged to use the system and report their comments to the data
integration team. DIAS also includes an interoperability portal that provides data/metadata search,technical term search and visualization of relations among dataset to very large-scale and wide variety ofearth observation data registered in the DIAS core system. This is a powerful tool that, however, requires
duly registration of metadata by data providers for its full functionality. The DIAS system structure anddata catalog interface are shown in figures 13 and 14, respectively.
Development of climate change adaptation strategies require appropriate methodology for integrating
socio-economic aspect into the impact assessment scheme, i.e. solving the following issues:- Impact evaluation” of the climate changeo Quantification of the impacts on agricultural, industrial, lifestyle and environment fromconverting precipitation patterns calculated by climate change to river discharge, volume
and quality of the water resource
o Evaluation of the impacts on drought, water disaster and water contamination in regional andriver basin scale due to climate change

Figure 13: Structure of the DIAS system.

Figure 14: DIAS data catalog interface.
--“Establishment” of a policy decision making to the climate changeo Development of a policy decision making system by considering the uncertainty of climatechange and cost expectation in the future. Evaluation of benefit of economic activities andsatisfaction of people in this area.
o Development of option selection system in order to maximize the social profit whileconsidering the uncertainty in the future- Policy implementationo From the above problem solving procedures, it is necessary to form the management systemthat can monitor, verify, evaluate and correct the processes in the “Regional management
system” by combining the functions of agreement formation and benefit sharing in the regiono Propose the regional management system for the adaptation policy implementation on the
climate change
Such a methodology was proposed by the Kochi University team that was designed for river basin
management and tested in Shikoku and Thailand. The methodology includes a logical model of citizens’
mindset regarding water issues that is based on survey among local citizens and transformed into
numerical form. Using such awareness structured logical modeling, total benefits of individual proposed
policies can be evaluated and a set of options of adaptation policies suggested to the public management.
The whole process is depicted in Figure 15.

Figure 15: Scheme of the process of implementation of adaptation policies

Breakout group session for CCAA implementation planning
After the introduction of available programs, frameworks, projects, activities, as well as tools, methods,
and technologies relevant for the AWCI CCAA study, breakout group session was held to discuss
implementation plan for respective focus areas including flood, drought and water quality. Due to absenceof key representatives from the snow, glacier and GLOF focus, this group discussed the CCAA
implementation subsequently at a dedicated conference call.
A first-draft version of a white paper on AWCI CCAA was distributed to the participants prior to themeeting and several points/questions were handed out before the session that the groups should focuson:- What is the key mission of the CCAA study- Methodology for two steps: (i) climate and bio-physical drivers and (ii) socio-economic drivers- Implementation strategy, plan, and schedule

Figure 16: Flowchart of an implementation plan toward assessing impacts of climate change andpreparing adaptation strategy – resulting version from breakout group discussions.

The flowchart of an implementation plan toward assessing impacts of climate change and preparing
adaptation strategy that resulted from the Bali meeting discussions (Fig. 16) was also presented before
the breakout group session.
The participants in the flood, drought and water quality groups discussed the above points and came out
with certain recommendations that were incorporated into the white paper draft. The final version of thedraft is attached in Appendix 1 below this report. Also outcomes of the snow, glacier and GLOF focused
conference call that was held later in October, were incorporated in the updated version of the white
paper draft.
Summary session
The outcomes of the two-day event were summarized, highlighting the continued progress in thedemonstration project data submission that had enabled various studies be carried out as presented
during the meeting. High awareness of the climate change related issues at the governmental level of
AWCI countries that was evident from country reports was acknowledged and expected be helpful inpursuing the AWCI CCAA study. In addition, a wide range of on-going projects and activities focusing on
climate change and including capacity building programs are available offering multiple opportunities forcollaboration.
With the data submission protocol established, benefits of the AWCI framework shown and recognizedthrough the outcomes of several demonstration projects, the need for climate change assessment andadaptation understood, and various methods, tools, and climate projection data available, the group felt
ready to move on to implementation of CCAA study. With regards to the presented contributions, theimplementation plan of the CCAA study was discussed and subsequently summarized in the white paper(Appendix 1), which also includes the implementation schedule.
As planned, the next AWCI event will be a training session focused on the rainfall bias correction andhydrological model application in the climate change assessment that will take place in Tokyo, Japan,
March 2011. It will be held in conjunction with other related events, namely GTN-H workshop, IGWCO
thworkshop, and the 5 GEOSS AP Symposium that will include a parallel session on Water, which will
mainly be dedicated to AWCI.
All the participants were acknowledged for their active participation in the meeting and contributing theirvaluable knowledge and ideas to the discussions. The successful meeting was closed by thanking theorganizers and all the supporting staff that assured smooth course of the meeting.

Appendix 1
Whitepaper on the GEOSS/AWCI Climate Change Impact Assessment Activity
1. BackgroundImpacts of climate change on water resources and water-related hazards in the Asia-Pacific region havealready become evident, as both scientific observations and the experiences of the region’s inhabitantsconfirm. In confronting the risks and challenges posed by changing climate, it is essential to properly
asses its impacts as a basis for identifying effective responses and developing adequate adaptation
strategies.
In recognition of these challenges, the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) has proposed
activities focusing on climate change impact assessment in three specific areas including flood, drought,thand snow and glacier phenomena. At the 6 AWCI International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting in
Bali, March 2010, an approach toward assessing impacts of climate change using the Climate Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data was proposed and accepted as illustrated in the chart below. ThisWhitepaper is an elaboration of that proposal.

Flowchart of an implementation plan toward assessing impacts of climate change and preparing
adaptation strategy – resulting version from breakout group discussions.

2. Mission
The main goal of the proposed activity is to set up a methodology for assessment of climate change
impacts on the water resources and water-related hazards that will be applicable in the AWCI member
countries and by using this methodology to carry out such assessment studies on the demonstration
basins in each country focusing on the three identified areas including flood, drought, and snow andglaciers phenomena.
3. Objectives
1. To set up a methodology for quantifying uncertainty of climate projection focusing on forcing
variables for hydrological models.
2. To set up a methodology for correcting bias of the projected forcing variables.
3. Produce projections of water resources and water hazard related variables by employing a properhydrological model forced by the corrected projected forcings.
4. Assess the impacts of climate change on changes in water resources and water-related hazards.
5. Recommendations for adaptation strategy.
4. Methodology
Step I for Climate & Bio-Physical Drivers
The activities will take an advantage of the CMIP3 (and later CMIP5) output including past simulations
and future projections that are stored on the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) of Japan. Close
collaboration is envisioned with the AWCI project “Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Asia-PacificWater Resources under GEOSS/AWCI” that is led by Prof. Deg-Hyo Bae, was approved for funding by
APN
in
April
2010
and
is
currently
beginning
its
activities(http://monsoon.t.utokyo.ac.jp/AWCI/projects.htm#change).
Approaches toward accomplishment of the listed objectives may differ according to the focus area, i.e.
whether the phenomena under assessment will be related to flood, drought, or snow and glaciers.
1. Flood
Key mission for flood:
Impact analysis on PMF, flood frequency, dam safety, optimal dam operation, etc.
As heavy rainfall is the key factor in floods, the flood-oriented activities will focus on change in heavy
rainfall events and associated changes in flood peaks. Using available long-term historical records (atleast 20-years) of rainfall in the AWCI demonstration basins and the CMIP3 (or later CMIP5) precipitation
outputs for the corresponding period, the uncertainty in CMIP precipitation outputs will be identified.
Consequently, the bias in the daily rainfall data will be corrected in the model projections. The corrected
data together with other forcing variables taken from the CMIP projections will be used to run suitablehydrological models in the demonstration basins that will generate projected river flow. The projectedheavy rainfall events and flood peaks will be compared with the historical series and studied for possible
trends and/or changes in intensity and frequency of occurrence.
Method:1. Data registration of demonstration basin to DIAS
2. Capacity building for bias correction & downscaling – e.g. UNU seminar on downscaling in May
2011
3. Application of multiple (hopefully!) hydrologic models such as WEB-DHM, IFAS-PDHM or BTOP,
any locally-used model at the demonstration basin, etc.
2. Drought
Key mission for drought:
1. To carry out a long term monitoring of soil moisture, precipitation, air temperature, and snow byin-situ and satellite with studying the definition of drought for climate change assessment.

2. To present an early warning system including seasonally forecasting for adaptations.
In case of drought, set of drought indices will be investigated. Similarly as for flood, available long-term
historical records of rainfall and CMIP3 precipitation output will be analyzed, the uncertainty identified forheavy rain, moderate rain, and low rain events, and the bias corrected. The observed in-situ precipitation
and JRA25 output will be used to force an adequate hydrological model (e.g. Web-DHM) in thedemonstration basins to derive the drought indices for the historical period. Consequently, the projected
forcing variables by CMIP3 including the bias-corrected precipitation will be used to force the hydrologicalmodel for the future period and projection river flow and basin states will be generated. Drought indicesfor the future period will be derived and compared with those for the historical period. Possible trends
and/or changes in drought occurrence, severity and frequency of occurrence will be studied.
In addition to the above study involving numerical model experiments, the focus will also be on
strengthening the monitoring system and data analysis of precipitation, soil moisture phonologicalelements, evapotranspiration, air temperature, land use, discharge, and groundwater.
3. Snow and Glaciers
Regarding the snow and glaciers focus, the abovementioned approaches are currently not applicable dueto (i) lack of sufficient historical in-situ observation of snow and glacier variables (insufficient in terms oflength of record, density of observation network, temporal resolution of the observation) and (ii) lack ofadequate hydrological model coping with the snow and glacier processes. Since quantifying uncertainty
and bias correction is difficult without long-term observation data, it is proposed to use satellite data forsnow cover and glacier change monitoring, namely Landsat data and the high resolution ASTER GDEM.
A statistical value of a snow covered area will be generated from the CMIP3 output for the historicalperiod using a hydrological model designed for cold regions. This statistical value will be compared withsuch a value resulting from Landsat data and in this way the CMIP3 output will be evaluated and bias
corrected.
Step II for Socio-Economic Drivers
To make a sound decision in water policy responding to changing political and socio-economic needs anddemands under climate change, it is vital to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method thatcovers political and socio-economic aspects as well as natural scientific aspects. The method should be
able to reflect the effects of climate prediction uncertainty in an appropriate way.
1. Risk Assessment
With the socio-economic background, it is important to develop a comprehensive assessment system thatcan quantify socio-economic impacts induced by climate change on comprehensive societal benefits,
including complacency about the risks to life and environmental safety. To design an adaptive measure, itis necessary to evaluate currently available technology and its future direction, to consider the socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of each target river basin, and then to quantify how much the risk tosociety can be reduced by combining various measures.
The first step will be to review existing studies in each participating country. Cooperation with experts onsocio-economic studies in each country will be sought.
2. Multilayered Risk Management
We must identify and implement approaches that improve water security over a wide range of potentialconditions, including current climate variability. Multilayered approaches, including both structural andnon-structural ones, should be promoted. Also early warning systems either for flood or drought or otherwater-related hazards are important elements of the scheme. Effective management as a whole can beachieved by shifting the capacities for specific purposes among existing reservoirs. Effective water
demand management, including proper water distribution for different objectives of water use andnegotiation among different stakeholders during severe drought, should be promoted. It is undoubtedly
effective to control urban land use in flood plains and local low-lying lands where serious damage iscaused by flooding and localized torrential rainfall respectively.

3. Governance
Adaptation measures involve a wide range of stakeholders. We must build the capacity of society todemonstrate resilience in the face of changing climate through strengthening the adaptation capacities of
stakeholders of society as a whole for operationalizing the multilayered risk management with climatechange adaptation measures. It is also important to recognize water quality as an inseparable
determinant of sustainable environment and people’s well being. It is important to establish a platform
consisting of stakeholder organizations, experts, and academics at the early stages of planning wheremaking decisions, sharing information, providing advice, and clarifying each organization’s role areconducted.
5. Implementation strategy
For the step I, we had better take an aggregation approach on observation capability, data sets, data
infrastructure, models, prediction capabilities and knowledge.
1. Sharing observation capability
2. Sharing long tem data, especially long-term daily rainfall data and hourly data even short periods.
3. Sharing data infrastructure and climate projection data sets – an easy access to the GCM products
needs to be provided.
4. Sharing hydrological models including down scaling methods.
5. Sharing regional characteristics of the climate change impacts on river flow regimes.
For the step II, the shared ideas, data, experiences and knowledge should be applied to eachdemonstration river basin considering its locality.
6. Timeline
30 October 2010:

Proposing a river basin for the Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation(CCAA) study by each AWCI member country and providing information on theavailable observation.

30 November 2010:

Review of available bias correction and downscaling methods (Japan)

February 2011:
March 2011:

Data submission to DIAS
Workshop and training session on downscaling, bias correction, and hydrologicalmodeling at the occasion of GEOSS AP Symposium and Asian Water Cycle
Symposium
March - October 2011: Conducting the step I activities – impact assessment (climate and bio-physicaldrivers
October 2011:
Discussion on socio-economic drivers and related activities, planning