49

Review on Practical Use of Weather Forecasting for
Health in Japan and Germany
Yoshitaka FUKUOKA
Department of Environmental Systems
Faculty of Geo-Environmental Sciences, Rissho University
1700 Magechi, Kumagaya-shi, Saitama 360-0194, Japane-mail: yfclimat@ris.ac.jp

Abstract
This paper reviews recent status of health-weather forecasting developed in Japan as well as inGermany. First, brief history of biometeorology in Japan was described with special reference tohealth-weather forecasting, based mainly on the previous studies by M. Yoshino and R. Miyashita in 2007
and 2008. In Japan, health-weather forecasting in TVs, Radios, Newspapers etc. has become popular since
several years ago, but it has longer than 30 years’ history in Germany. Secondly, recent activities by the
Bioclima-Research-Committee (BCRC) on health-weather forecasting services were introduced, showing
the flow chart. Importance of the size in space scale and the regional division or climatic division for theforecasting areas was discussed, according to the scale division by M. Yoshino.
Thirdly, delivery methods and frequencies of health-weather forecasting were dealt with. Fourthly,
examples were given for (1) short-term UV conditions and adjusting for skin constitution and (2) heatdisorder and its forecasting system at Kumagaya City. In the last part, examples appeared in the Newspapers
and TVs in Germany were introduced. German methods have been used at 74 cities in the world in 2008,
according to a report by J. N. Petit. It provides health-weather forecasting for the coming five days, updated
every twelve hours at approximately 1200Z and 2300Z. Forecasts are categorized into one of the eight
weather phases.
Key words: biometeorological history, health-weather relationship, Japan and Germany,
med-weather forecasting

1. Introduction
Global warming and the urban heat-island phenomenon have recently brought about heat disorders, photochemical smog and other problems. Therefore, every
weather company is making efforts to develop methodsof weather forecasting for health or to prevent diseases
such as heat disorders in collaboration with biometeorologists at universities or institutes.
In this paper, the author reviews some examples ofweather forecasts for diseases or health, which arebroadcast by mass media like TV, the Internet, mobile
phone services, etc. in Japan, comparing them withweather forecasting in Germany. Some bio-weather
forecasting systems incorporate not only meteorologicalelements but also personal physiological informationsuch as gender, age, blood pressure, lifestyle, and soforth, especially in the cases of heat disorders and dry
skin.
Global Environmental Research
13/2009: 49-54
printed in Japan

2. Historical Reviews of Biometeorology inJapan from the Viewpoint of Weather
Forecasting
2.1 Short history of biometeorological forecasting in
Japan
The author introduces a short history of biometeorological forecasting in Japan which was presented by
Yoshino and Miyashita (2008) at Luncheon Seminar 1
at ICB2008 in Tokyo, September 2008.
It may be summarized as follows:
5th Century --- Knowledge related to biometeorology came to Japan gradually or sporadically from China
and the countries in Korean Peninsula.
8th Century --- Cultural exchange missions between
China (Tang Dynasty) and Japan brought biometeorological knowledge of the relationship between
human health/disease and weather to Japan (Yoshino,2007).
17th Century --- U. Ikeda described that “an injured©2009 AIRIES50

Y. FUKUOKA

person feels pain more strongly in his wounds when astorm (cyclone) is approaching.”
18th Century --- Descriptions became more detailed,e.g., itchiness of scalp, burning sensation in the face orears, many ants emerging from nests, active movementof birds, active jumping of fishes, etc., as fore-running
signs of approaching cyclones. Proverbs on the relationship between health/disease and weather have been
passed down by local peoples since ancient times. These
have been listed up by regional geographers on a prefectural or village scale.
Marui (1946) studied seasonal changes in mental
disorders and reported their maximum occurrence inJune and July. He pointed out a similar seasonal change
in frequency of suicide and crime. Kuno (1949) studied
perspiration and seasonal temperature.
In the 1960s and 1970s, M. Momiyama studied
seasonal variations in mortality in relation to outdoor
temperatures and indoor temperatures with heating/cooling, including lifestyle changes. She presented aseasonal disease calendar (Momiyama, 1961; SakamotoMomiyama, 1977).
In the paper “Med-Weather: A New Approach to
Weather/Health Science and Weather Awareness,” Petit
et al., 2008 state that efforts to quantify and express thehealth effects of weather will be enhanced by new
Med-Weather forecasts on the Internet (http://www.
med-weather.com). Derived from studies of theDeutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service), theUniversity of Miami and others, those forecasts indicate
how severely sufferers of arthritis, asthma, cardiovascular, and migraine symptoms may be affected. In
addition, attention span and reaction time forecasts show
how weather may affect the general population. To
promote further research in this field, the Med-Weather
web-based presentation will use responses from thesite’s visitors to validate its forecasts.

2.2 Some recent significant purposes ofbiometeorological studies(1) Basic scientific research for application to medical weather forecasting.
Figure 1 shows a Health-Weather Forecasting service image from the BCRC. From the BCRC body, thisservice is provided via BIOCLIMA-NET for use in livehealth calendars, health forecasting, medical forecasting,comfort forecasting, etc. It is ultimately intended forgeneral and professional users.
(2) Background for health-weather forecasting: “How
useful is health-weather forecasting to the public?”
TERUMO Co. conducted a questionnaire survey of
1,168 individuals on their awareness of health-weather
relationships (Kida, 2005). Among them, 602 were normal, healthy people and 566 had high blood pressure,
myocardial infarctions, asthma or rheumatic ailments.
In response to the questionnaire survey, more than
70% of the persons answered that they thought there
was a close relationship between weather and health,and most of them had had experiences such as “I get
stiff shoulders when it becomes cold,” “I become depressed when bad weather continues,” “Dry weather
brings about itchiness all over, “Old wounds start to hurtwhen bad weather continues,” and so on (Kida, 2005;
Fukuoka et al., 2007).
The TERUMO group summarized an “Expression
Code” for health-weather forecasting according to theirown standards, for use in addition to the standard codeused in broadcasting, as follows:① Present forecasting information based on facts which
are statistically significant,② Do not alarm TV viewers unnecessarily,③ Do not cause misunderstanding among TV viewers,④ Consider the security of TV viewers, and⑤ Inform TV viewers of countermeasures for action in
as much detail as possible; for example, “wear a
Bioweather Service Web site

Bioclima Research Committee
BIOCLIMA-NET
WG-Amenity

WG-Health
Data Forecast
Parameter

Bioclimate
Contents

Forecasting
Model

Bioclimatologists
Medical Meteorologists

IDEA Consultants, Inc.

Internet
Distribution media◆Intermet◆Portable gelephone◆BS/CS digital broadcasting

Service Menu
●Life・health calender●Health forecasting●Medical forecasting●Amenity forecasting●etc.

Existing media
TV, Radio,
Newspaper

BS/CS
digital broadcasting

Portable telephoneetc.

Life-health calender
Health forcasting

Free of charge
Care management
forecast

General utilizer

Portable
telephone

Medical forecast

ChargedProfessional traders

PC
PC

Food poisoning

Care managers

Fig. 1 Health-Weather Forecasting service image by IDEA Co.

Car Navigator
Medical persons
concerned

Portable telephone
Food tradersconcerned

Review on Practical Use of Weather Forecasting for Health in Japan and Germany

hat,” “drink plenty of fluids,” ”avoid strenuous exercise under direct sunshine,” “stay indoors, if possible,” “avoid crowds,” etc.
2.3 Size of area and division of area for forecasting
For general purposes (broadcasting time intervals,
networks, ranges--short or long, daily, weekly, monthly,or seasonal), Japan has been subdivided into 39 regions.
These regions correspond fairly well, generally, todifferent architectural forms, clothing customs andsensibilities of the inhabitants, which have been theirways of adapting to long-term climatic conditions.

51

ing the summer season. In order to get med-weather
forecasts by means of this system, we have to input
some personal physiological data such as age, gender,
blood pressure, perspiration, body type, lifestyle (outdoor or indoor type), and so on, as shown in the picture(Fig. 3). After input of such personal data, detailed
forecast information is produced as in Fig. 3, where

2.4 For whom is forecasting to be made?
Delivery methods and frequencies depend upon
the scales of space as shown in Tables 1 and 2 presented
by Yoshino and Miyashita (2007).

3. An Example of Weather-health Forecasting
3.1 In the case of short-term UV conditions(1) Seasonal variation --- Maximum in August andsecondary maximum in May in Japan (because of therainy season in June and July).
(2) Impacts stronger in April than September (important point is the period after winter or after summer).
(3) Fine, cloudy or rainy weather for the day (important point is daytime weather). An example of information (forecasts) on UV in Japan is given in Fig. 2, fromthe Japan Meteorological Agency (http://www.jma.go.
jp/jp/uv/).
3.2 Heat-disorder forecasting based on weather
There is a quite excellent forecasting system for heatdisorders developed by LBW Co., which is adopted dur-Fig. 2 An example of “Today’s UV Index Forecast” (After Japan
Met. Agency).
Table 3 An example of weather-health forecasting in the case ofheat disorders. (Yoshino & Miyashita, 2008)
Factors

Table 1 Space scale and objects of weather-health forecasting.
(Yoshino & Miyashita, 2008)
Space scale

Objects of presentation
Individuals, Families, Groups, Enterprises, Schools,
Hospitals, Communities, Local(town, village level)administration, Clinics, Health care centers, etc.
Local (Prefecture, city, town, village level )administration,
Enterprises, Schools, Hospitals, Local communities,
Clinics, Health care centers, etc.
National government, Prefectural government, etc.
World organizations (WHO, WMO, UN, etc.), Regional
Communities (EU, ASEAN, etc.)

Micro-scale
Local scale
Meso-scale
Macro-scale

Items to be considered

Environmental 1. Temperature, humidity (air conditionfactors
ing, indoor temperature and outdoor
temperature).
2. Wind velocity, sunshine.
Medical1. Babies, infants, aged peoples, obese
Biologicalbody, intake of alcohol.
factors
2. Abnormal conditions of body (e.g.
fever, dehydration).
3. Drag dependents, persons who cannot
care themselves.

Possibility offorecasting
○
(○),×
○
(○),×
×

Table 2 Delivery methods and frequencies of weather-healthforecasting. (Yoshino & Miyashita, 2008)
Space
scale

TV
Nat.

Reg.

Radio
Nat.

Reg.

News
paper
Nat.

Reg.

Internet
Nat.

Micro×
○
×
○
×
×
×
scale
Local
×
○
×
○
×
×
×
scale
Meso○
○
○
○
○
○
○
scale
Macro○
○
○
○
○
○
○
scale
Note: Nat.=national scale; Reg.=regional scale.
○: possible; ×: impossible

Reg.

○
○
○
○

Mobile Frequencytele(more
phone
than)
5-6
○
times/day4○times/day1
×times/day1
×times/dayFig. 3 An example of a heat disorder forecast by Life Business
Weather, Inc.

52

Y. FUKUOKA

eight grades of heat disorders are presented by eightcolors and detailed comments are written adding information on precautions and treatment. Incidentally, theeight grades in this system originated from the guidelines proposed by the Committee on Heat Disordersof the Japanese Society of Biometeorology 2008.
3.3 The case of UV forecasting, adjusting for skinconstitution
UV forecasting is carried out to suit skin constitution.
It takes into account not only weather elements but also
the physiological condition of the skin. As a meteorological element, this forecasting system uses an international ultra-violet index consisting of 14 grades (0~13).
This index was deduced through experiments on therelationship between the UV index and skin type: white,
standard and black. The UV index is based on the timeinterval required for the skin’s color to change to red,that is, sunburn occurs differently in the three types ofskin.
In Fig. 4 the red symbol indicates extremely strong
UV; orange, very strong; yellow, strong; green, medium;and blue, weak
3.4 Heat-disorder forecast practices of local
governments
In Japan, the record maximum air temperature wasreestablished from its historical high of 40.8°C in
Yamagata City in 1933 to 40.9°C in Kumagaya(Saitama Pref.) and Tajimi (Gifu Pref.) in 2007. Therefore, local governments such as Kumagaya City andKusatsu City are trying to mitigate physiological damage due to heat disorders by using new facilities or
special systems based on WBGT observations locally.
In the case of Kumagaya City, 30 air temperatureand relative humidity observation stations have been
established in order to compute WGBT by using WBGTat the city center and meteorogical data from the JMA(Japanese Meteorological Agency), The estimated
WGBT figures can be obtained by any citizen with amobile phone at any time, under a system established on
July 1, 2008 as shown in Fig. 5.
The web-based presentation of the Kumagaya local
government’s heat-disorder forecast will use responses
from the site’s visitors to validate the forecasts.

4. Introduction of German Health-weather
Forecasting as a Forerunner
In Germany, health-weather forecasting has been
carried by daily news paper (Fig. 6) as well as TV (Fig.
7) from a few decades ago. It includes more than 20
items comprising not only diseases themselves but alsomental disorders like irritation, insomnia, etc. The scientific basis of the newspapers’ biowetter or TV stations’
health-weather forecasts has not been made public,
which means that the author has no data on the original
papers dealing with the relationship between diseases
and weather in Germany.
Nonetheless, the author thinks it useful as a “Forewarned, forearmed” strategy tool (“Korobanusaki notsue” in Japanese).
Recent studies of German med-weather forecasts
were presented at ICB2008 in Tokyo, one of which theFig. 4 An example of a UV forecast by Life Business Weather,
Inc. The marks in this figure are as follows:
red—extremely strong UV, orange—very strong,yellow —strong, green—medium and blue—weak.

Fig. 5 Heat-disorder forecasting system of Kumagaya City.

Fig. 6 An example of a health-weather forecast in a newspaper (Biowetter in German) as shown on the bottom
left, where Kopfschmerzen (headaches) and other
health concerns are predicted.

Review on Practical Use of Weather Forecasting for Health in Japan and Germany

Fig. 7 An example of a health-weather forecast on TV(Biowetter on DONNER WETTER), where four levelsof bronchitis are shown for six regions.

author summarizes as follows.
At present 74 cities around the world provide local
health-effect forecasts for the coming five days, updated
every twelve hours at approximately 1,200 Z and 2,300 Z.
This allows the forecasts to be most relevant to users
who may need information on how they may be affectedin the next 12 to 24 hours.
Forecasts are then categorized into one of eight
weather phases as defined by the original studies of the
Deutcher Wetterdienst. These forecast phases are basedon changes in the weather patterns in terms of cloudiness, temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure andwinds:
Phase 1: Moderately good weather
Phase 2: Improving weather
Phase 3A: Good weather
Phase 3F: Exceptional weather
Phase 4: Forthcoming precipitation
Phase 5: Precipitation beginning
Phase 6: Clearing, calm weather
Phase 6Z: Completed precipitation
Though the general health effects of weather wereanalyzed for 40 different diseases (e.g., asthma, migraines, rheumatic arthritis, etc.) they simplified these tofour basic groups of diseases at the beginning of theirstudies: arthritis, asthma, cardio-vascular and migraines.
There are also some studies indicating effects on attention span and reaction time (Figs. 8 & 9).
The study concludes that this site can be used forcollecting data on wellness and can help build an understanding of the weather-disease connection and promote
the science of biometeorology.

5. Conclusions
In this review paper, the author points out that the
med-weather forecasting is not so popular in Japan even53

Fig. 8 Example of weekly forecasts four basic groups’
diseases, attention span and reaction time at St. Paul.
(after Petit et al., 2008)

Fig. 9 Example of seasonal forecasts of Med-Weather at St.
Paul. (after Petit et al., 2008)

on TV, while in Germany they are prominent in newspapers as well as on TV, every day nationwide. Thisdifference is thought to be rather similar to differencesin the way of thinking on environmental problems, that
is, a difference in awareness and sense of crisis before
problems happen.
References
Fukuoka, Y., K. Kida, and R. Miyashita (2007) Biometeorologcal
study on the relationship between weather and chronic
disease—Possibility of weather forecasting for health anddisease. Global Environmental Research, 11:59-64.
Japanese Society of Biometeorology (2008) Heat disorder.
Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 45 (1). (in Japanese)
Kida, K. (2005) On practice of the health-weather forecasting.
Abstract of An Open Seminar “Health and Weather “ organizedby BCRC, March 12, 2005, 10.(in Japanese)
Kuno, Y. (1949) Kikou-to-jinsei (Climate and human life).
Sogensha.(in Japanese)

54

Y. FUKUOKA

Marui, K. (1946) Kisetsu-to-seishin-henchou (Season and mental
derangement). Nippon Isho-shuppan.(in Japanese)
Momiyama, M. (1961) High winter mortality of seasonal disease.
Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 12:163-179.
Petit, J. N., S. Laurence, S.L.Kaikstein and J. J Uldrich (2008)
Med forecast—A new approach to weather/health science andweather awareness. ICB2008, Med-Weather Forecast. O-002.
Sakamoto-Momiyama, M. (1977) Seasonality in human mortality.
University of Tokyo Press.
Yoshino, M. (2007) Kikougaku-no-rekishi (History ofclimatology). Kokon-shoin. (in Japanese)
Yoshino, M. and R. Miyashita (2007) Studies on bioclimate andweather-health forecasting in Japan. Global Environmental
Research, 11:23-31
Yoshino, M. and R. Miyashita (2008) Studies on bioclimate andweather-health forecasting in Japan. Luncheon Seminar at
ICB2008.

Yoshitaka FUKUOKA
Yoshitaka Fukuoka is a professor ofEnvironmental Meteorology, Faculty of
Geo-Environmental Science, Rissho University. He has also been the designatedDirector of the Institute of Environmental
Sciences at Rissho University since 2006.
His academic interests cover urban
climates, dendroclimatology, acid rain, therelationship between weather and healthand other related topics. He has served as
Chairman of the Japan Biometeorological Assosiation, Vice- president of
the Bioclima Research Group, Commissioner of the Environmental
Information Center, Committee of Environmental Assessment of Chiba
Prefecture, and held other posts. He was awarded a prize by the Director
General of the Environment Ministry in 1994 when he was a Professor at
Hiroshima University. He has published many books, including“Environmental Geography” (Kokonshoin Pub.Co.Tokyo), “Global
Environment of Human Scale” (Kokonshoin Pub.Co.Tokyo), “Nature in
Urban” (Asakurashoten Pub.Co.Tokyo), and many articles, exceeding250. He has been serving as Chairman of the Program Committee for
IBC2008 in Tokyo (International Biometeorology Conference).

(Received 30 April 2009, Accepted 8 June 2009)