IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Global EV Outlook 2021
Dr Timur Gül, Dr Jacopo Tattini
IEEJ Global Energy Webinar, 11 May 2021

Page 1IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

The Clean Energy Ministerial’s Electric Vehicles Initiative(Co-lead)(Co-lead)

Coordinator

Members(2020-21)

Activities:•••Analysis
Commitments
Collaborative projects

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 2IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Electric car sales were resilient to the pandemic

ThousandAnnual electric car sales by region, 2015-2020
3 500Others

3 000
2 500

Japan

2 000
United States
1 500
1 000

Europe500China02015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Global electric car sales rose by 41% in 2020 despite falling overall car sales.
Europe became the largest electric car market for the first time, overtaking China.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 3IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Consumer and government spending on electric cars is evolving

Billion USD

Spending on electric cars by consumers and governments
15025%

12020%
Consumer spending

9015%
Government spending

6010%
Share of government
in total

3005%

20152016

2017

2018

2019

20200%The share of government incentives in total spending on electric cars has decreased over thepast five years, suggesting that EVs are becoming increasingly attractive to consumers.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 4IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Road transport electrification is not just about cars

3030

ThousandMillion

Electric vehicles sales by transport mode and region, 2020

2525

120
100

202080151560Rest of the world
North AmericaKorea
Europe

40

1010

China
55

2000

0

Two/three-wheelers

Vans

Buses

Heavy trucks

Sales of electric two-and three-wheelers are one order of magnitude higher than sales of electric cars.
The electrification of other modes is lagging behind but is rising.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 5IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Early signals for continued momentum in 2021

ThousandElectric car sales, first quarter 2019-2021
1 2006%
Other

1 000

5%
United States

800

4%

600

3%

400

2%

200

1%

EuropeWorld
China02019

2020

Sales share

2021

Over the first quarter of 2021, electric car sales rose by around 140% compared to the same period in 2020,
outpacing the rebound in overall car sales.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 6IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

EVs penetrate all road transport modes by 2030
MillionGlobal road EV stock by mode, 2020-2030
250
Climate goals*

Million200150

Trucks100BusesVans

50Cars02020

2025

2030
* As analysed in the Sustainable Development Scenario

The total EV fleet grows to 145 million in the Stated Policies Scenario, up from around 11 million today.
The EV fleet could be significantly larger if governments accelerate efforts to reach climate goals.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 7

IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

How EVs support climate goals
Greenhouse gas emissions
Mt CO₂-eq

400Electricitygeneration& other

2000Equivalent
ICE fleet

- 200
- 400

Net
avoidedemissions

- 600

- 800
2030
2030
2020
STEPS
SDS

EVs will continue contributing to net reductions in GHG emissions, especially as the electric grid decarbonises.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 8IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Conclusions• Global EV sales in 2020 were resilient to the impacts of the pandemic on the back of existing regulatory
frameworks and subsidies; early market signals in 2021 suggest continued momentum in key markets.
• Recovery packages are an opportunity to accelerate the transition to electric mobility across the entire
supply chain; in 2020, charging infrastructure roll-out kept pace with EV growth.
• Existing policies & industry plans suggest that the next decade is set to see much more widespread
adoption of EVs; but to reach ambitious climate goals, further action is required in three key areas:- Accelerate the transition to e-mobility such as by tightening fuel economy standards and enacting
zero-emissions vehicle mandates.
- Roll-out recharging infrastructure and develop sustainability frameworks for batteries.
- Decarbonise power generation to fully reap the environmental benefits of EVs.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 9IEEJ：May 2021© IEEJ2021

Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Page 10