Shirish S Garud,Director,TERI

Flow of the presentation• Growth Indicators for India• Sectorial demand prediction• CO2 Emissions trends• Impact of Green Hydrogen on sectorial emissions• Hydrogen Mission• Recommendations

Growth Indicatorsfor India• Rising
population
andincomes since 2000 haveunderpinned a doubling ofenergy use in India, but percapita energy use is still lessthan 40% of the world
average.

Source : India Energy Outlook, IEA, 2021

CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector

Source : India Energy Outlook, IEA, 2021

Hydrogen Demand• Demand for hydrogen today is at around 6 Mt per annum, coming solely from industry sectors, such as
fertilizers and refineries.
• This can increase to around 28 Mt by 2050, driven by cost reductions in key technologies, as well as thegrowing imperative to decarbonize the energy system.

Hydrogen demand projection in the Low-Carbon scenario, 2020-2050

Hydrogen demand projection for Baseline andLow Carbon scenarios, 2020 and 2050
Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI,

Ammonia• Fertilizer consumption is expected to increase from around 45 kg per capita today to 75 kg per capitaby 2050.
• By 2050, the demand would increase from 3 Mt (which is around 50% of India’s total hydrogendemand) of hydrogen to around 7.5 Mt in the Indian fertilizer industry.

Demand for fertilizers – domestic production and import,
2010–2050

Hydrogen demand in the fertilizer sector, 2020–2050
Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI, 2020

Refineries• In 2020, total refinery demand for hydrogen is 2.6
Mt, or around 40% of total hydrogen demand inIndia.

• In the Baseline scenario, this would increase tonearly 6 Mt, as demands for low sulphur fuels,
such as diesel and motor spirit (petrol), continue togrow significantly.
• In the Low Carbon scenario, total hydrogen
demand is around 5 Mt, reflecting the lower
demands for low sulphur fuels with a growing shift
to BEVs and FCEVs.
Hydrogen demand in refineries, 2020 and 2050

Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI, 2020

Steel Industry• Under the Low Carbon scenario, where supportive policies are brought
in to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen direct reduction facilities, there
can be growth in green hydrogen demand from 2030.
• This increases rapidly out to 2050, making up nearly all new primarycapacity additions between 2030 and 2050.
• This results in around 50% of primary capacity using hydrogen direct
reduction by 2050, requiring around 9 Mt of green hydrogen each year.

Pathways for decarbonizing primary steel production in India, 2020-2060

Route-wise crude steel production share, 2020-21

Hydrogen demand for the steel sector in the Baselineand Low Carbon scenarios

Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI, 2020

Transport Sector…1• India’s transport sector contributes to ~10% of its GHG emissions. In 2020, an estimated 60% of India’s final
energy use in transport arose from passenger transport and 40% from freight transport.

CO2 emissions have grown across transport modes over the past 20 years reaching over 300 MT CO2 eq. in 2020.
Source: Mission 2070: A Green New Deal for a Net Zero India, World Economic Forum, 2021

Transport Sector…2• Total transport demand is projected to grow to 3,150 TWh (270Mtoe) by 2050.
• Petrol and diesel demand for freight transport continues to growacross the whole projection period, as the penetration of BEVs,FCEVs, and NGVs is not sufficient to halt the growth of diesel
and petrol.
• This highlights the importance of the future of freight transport toIndia’s oil product demand growth.
• The total petrol and diesel consumption is projected to reach2,150 TWh (185 Mtoe) by 2050.

Transport fuel projection by fuel (TWh)• Total electricity demand in transport would reach 540 TWh by
2050, a substantial amount compared to the 2018 level of total
final consumption of electricity across all sectors of 1,200 TWh.
• Hydrogen demand is expected to reach just 59 TWh by 2050, as
penetration is assumed to be negligible in light-duty transport, andmodest in heavy-duty freight and passenger transport.
• Natural gas demand would reach 400 TWh.

Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI, 2020

The Transformation of India’s Railways• India’s railway network was for a long time largely fuelled by coal and diesel. However, the shareof electrified tracks has increased in recent decades, rising from 24% in 2000 to just over 50% in2019.

Electrification of railway routes and operations
Source : India Energy Outlook, IEA, 2021

• Railways are working on an ambitious project of using fuel cell in locomotives. Indian Railways
plans to manufacture a 300 kW(with transient power well in excess of 1 MW) fuel cell based
hybrid locomotive.

Consumption of Petroleum Products
LPG
SKO
FO & LSHS

90000

Naphtha
HSD
BitumenMS
LDOPetroleum coke

ATF
Lubricants & Greases
Others

80000

PRODUCT ('000 METRIC TONNE)

70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000

10000
0
1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 202198
990001020304050607080910111213141516171819202122YEAR

MS - Motor Spirit

ATF - Aviation Turbine Fuel
SKO - Sarvottam Kerosene Oil

HSD - High Speed Diesel
LDO- Light Diesel Oil
FO & LSHS - Furnace Oil & Low Sulphur & Heavy Stock

Source : MoPNG

National Hydrogen Mission• Mission aims to make India a Global Hub for production, utilization and export of Green Hydrogen and its derivatives.
• Mission will help in India becoming energy independent and in de-carbonisation of major sectors of the economy.
• Development of green hydrogen production capacity of at least 5 MMT (Million Metric Tonne) per annum with anassociated renewable energy capacity addition of about 125 GW in the country by 2030.
• Total Government contribution / investment INR 19,744 Crore by 2030
• INR 17,490 Cr for site program• INR 1,466 Cr pilot projects• INR 400 Cr for R & D• INR 388 Cr towards other Mission components• Nearly 50 MMT per annum of CO2 emissions are expected to be averted by 2030.

Emissions intensity of hydrogen production• Fossil fuels result in significant
emissions from hydrogen production,with coal-based production (brown)
exceeding 600 gCO2 /kWh.
• The Indian electricity grid is currently ataround 700 gCO2 /kWh, although this isexpected to decrease rapidly over thetime period, in line with ambitious
renewableenergytargets.
This
reinforces the recommendation thatelectrolytichydrogenshouldbeconstructed using dedicated renewables
versus grid electricity, both for reasonsof costs and emissions.

Emissions intensity of hydrogen production, 2020–2050

Source: The Potential Role of Hydrogen India, TERI, 2020

CO2 emissions reductions due to greenhydrogen uptake in end use sectors• Cumulatively, between 2020 and 2050, India can abate 3.6 Giga Tonnes of CO2 emissions using greenhydrogen.

• Green Hydrogen can translate to a net energy import savings of $246 - $358 billion between 2020 and2050.
Source: Harnessing Green Hydrogen Opportunities for Deep Decarbonisation in India, NITI
Aayog, 2022

Summing Up and Way Ahead• India has announced The Hydrogen Mission with INR 19, 744 Crbudget.
• Target to manufacture 5MMT green Hydrogen and its derivatives by2030 Almost close to current hydrogen production levels.
• R & D to commercialization shift has to happen faster.
• Hydrogen can play an important role in Carbon Trading Scheme being
developed.
• Green Hydrogen targets for Major hydrogen consumers.
• Policies and frameworks for Mission Implementation has to bedeveloped.

Thank You!
Email: shirishg@teri.res.in