The New discoveries of Natural Gas inMediterranean and its impacts on theinternational relations(Egypt, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine)

Mona Farouk  IMS

Abstract:
In the last decade, new discoveries of Natural Gas in Mediterranean came up
to open the way for predictions of its impacts on the international relations
especially between Mediterranean countries. Many countries are involved in thisissue whether by its direct interest having a share of these discoveries or byindirect interest having the need for this Gas. Among these discoveries, the eastpart of Mediterranean witnesses some of the biggest hydrocarbon discoveries of thelast decade. We can see countries; like Egypt, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Israel,are
directly involved with these discoveries sharing the sea boundaries for these Gas
discoveries. On the other hand, we can see many other counties that are involved
with this issue indirectly by their being major consumers of natural gas and theircontinuous needs of importing it.
The question is whether these discoveries wouldlead to new disputes in the
Mediterranean region or there can be peaceful tools to share the benefits of these
Natural Gas discoveries. To answer this question this paper will try to shed the217 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

light on the new discoveries of Natural Gas in the Mediterranean and the impactsof these discoveries on the relationships of the countries of this region.
The study will focus on 4 countries involved with those discoveries which are;Egypt, Lebanon, Palestine and Israel, through the following dimensions:
1- Importance of Natural Gas.
2- The current status of need for Natural Gas in the region.
3- New discoveries of Natural Gas in Mediterranean.
4- The Impacts of Natural Gas new discoveries on the international relations of
the region.
5- Conclusion and the future vision.

Keywords:
Mediterranean, Natural Gas, discoveries, energy, relations, impacts, disputes.

Introduction:
The Mediterranean region is one of the vital regions of the world with its
geostrategic location in the middle of world and with its variety of countries thatbelong to Africa, Asia and Europe. The Mediterranean Sea has connected all thesecountries through history with many connections which include sharing thetreasures of the Mediterranean Sea. But would these treasures of Mediterranean Sea
be a reason of future disputes among those countries? This can be a question torise up concerning the new discoveries of the natural gas in the Mediterranean Sea.
Over the last decades, the Mediterranean regionfaced many changes including
the formation of the European Union and several wars that lead to a serious crisisof refugees in the region. This has coped with a continuous growth of population
ofthe region along with increasing growth of the economic output of the region as
well. These changes all contribute to increasing pressure on the Mediterranean

218

❙ Mona Farouk ❙natural resources which include Natural Gas as a main source of energy.
Natural gas is one of the most important sources of clean energy comparing
with other sources of fossil fuels, italso has more advantages to be favorably used
more than other fossil fuels like Petroleum oil and coal, as it burns more cleanly
than those fuels. This can be clear, knowing thatburning natural gas produces only
about half the carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour (kWh) that coal does. Thus,
Natural gas became one of the major sources of electricity generation.1)
On the other hand, both North America and Europe are major consumers of
Natural gas.This can imply that other non-Mediterranean countries would haveinterests in these Natural Gas discoveries on the Mediterranean, as it may be their
future provider of Natural Gas. Knowing that most countries of this region,
especially the east of the Mediterranean had suffered lack of energy sources, cangive us an idea about the importance of the recent discoveries of Mediterranean
Gas fields, and the impacts of these discoveries on the relationships of thecountries of this region that may come with future disputes accordingly.
To approach this issue, it would be better to begin with clearing outthe
importance of natural gas itself generally and then to focus on its importance tothe Mediterranean countries, which would be obvious if we approach the current
status of need for the natural gas in this region.

1. Importance of Natural Gas
Natural gas is an extremely important source of energy for reducing pollution
and maintaining a clean and healthy environment. In addition to being adomestically abundant and secure source of energy, the use of natural gas alsooffers a number of environmental benefits over other sources of energy, particularly
other fossil fuels.
Nowadays, we can see the up rise of the natural gas as the world is seeking
for promoting the use of cleaner renewable energy sources to protect theenvironment. This trend can be seen in the "International Petroleum week" held in1) Natural Gas and the Environment , NaturalGas.org,
https://web.archive.org/web/20090503132200/http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp219

 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

London in February 2018, hosted by the Institute of Energy that organized aspecial whole day for discussions about natural gas, which confirms the evolving
role of gas as a cleaner fuel alternative for oil2).
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that if the governments ofworld countries continued to adopt policies protecting the environment, the shareof natural gas in the total international supply will increase to 54% by the year of2040 while it reaches nowadays 36%. According to IEA data, gas demand
worldwide grows to nearly 4300 bcm in 2030 in the Sustainable Development
Scenario – some 20% higher than today’s levels –before plateauing around thislevel. This contrasts sharply with the picture for coal and oil, which drop globallyby over 50% and 25% respectively between 2016 and 2040. Gas overtakes coal in
the mid-2020s and oil in the mid-2030s to become the largest single fuel in the
global energy mix3).
The importance of Natural gas can be clearly seen as it is a major source ofelectricity generation through the use of cogeneration, gas turbines and steam
turbines. Natural gas is also well suited for a combined use in association withrenewable energy sources such as wind or solar and for alimenting peak-load
power stations functioning in tandem with hydroelectric plants. Most grid peaking
power plants and some off-grid engine-generators use natural gas. Particularlyhigh efficiencies can be achieved through combining gas turbines with a steam
turbine in combined cycle mode. Natural gas burns more cleanly than other fuels,
such as oil and coal. Because burning natural gas produces both water and carbon
dioxide, it produces less carbon dioxide per unit of energy released than coal,
which produces mostly carbon dioxide. Burning natural gas produces only about
half the carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour (kWh) that coal does 4).
Briefly, we can say thatNatural gas is assumed to overtake the place of coaland oil in the energy market worldwide in the future, which can generally sum up
its importance especially with the global trend of adopting environment friendly
policies. The current status proves the high growth of the demand for the Natural
Gas worldwide including the Mediterranean region.

2) https://www.ipweek.co.uk/
3) http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017Excerpt_Outlook_for_Natural_Gas.pdf
4) "Natural Gas and the Environment". NaturalGas.org. Archived from the original on 3 May 2009. Retrieved 11
June 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20090503132200/http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp

220

❙ Mona Farouk ❙2. The current status of need for Natural Gas in the region.
In Mediterranean region, Egypt is considered to be the top countryper
recoverable reserves, (1,846.3 bcm and also top producing countries include Egypt(45.6 bcm among the Mediterranean region, as Egypt has the sixth largest proved
oil reserves in Africa, with over half located in its offshore waters. . Top countries
per proved recoverable reserves include Ukraine (604 bcm), United Kingdom (206bcm), Cyprus (141.6 bcm, and top producing countries Ukraine (17.4 bcm) 5).
In the past few years, there have been offshore discoveries of gas and possibly
oil that open up new economic possibilities, and may also redefine strategic
relationships in future. A 2010 US Geological Survey report estimated that there
were 122 trillion cubic feet (TCF) (equivalent to 3455 billion cubic meters) of gas
and 1.7bn barrels of oil off the coasts of Israel, the Gaza Strip, Cyprus, Syria andLebanon6).
The following is details for the current status of need for Natural Gas in main
countries involved with the new discoveries of Natural Gas in Mediterranean
region:1.1 Egypt
Among Mediterranean countries that involved directly with the Natural Gas
discoveries on the Mediterranean is Egypt which is considered to be an important
country in regards to natural gas. This can be seen through the following facts; i)Egypt is within the top 20 countries globally for proved natural gas reserves,
natural gas production, and natural gas consumption. ii) Egypt had 1846.3 bcm ofproved natural gas reserves as of 2014. iii) Natural gas plays an important role in
Egypt’s energy mix, particularly when it comes to the country’s electricity
production. Natural gas is the fuel responsible for approximately 70% of Egypt’s
electricity currently7).
Egypt’s natural gas reserves have been aided by discoveries in the MediterraneanSea, the Nile Delta, and the Western Desert. Egypt’s natural gas production has5) https://www.worldenergy.org
6) Yolande Knell, "Gas finds in east Mediterranean may change strategic balance", BBC News, Jerusalem, 13 May
2013. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22509295
7) https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/egypt/gas/221 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

been steadily declining in recent years. In fact, 2014 marked the third consecutive
year of falling natural gas production in Egypt and the drop has been substantial.
Egypt produced 48.7 bcm of natural gas in 2014, which represented approximately
a 13% drop from 2013 levels. As domestic production has been falling, it has
started to converge with Egypt’s natural gas consumption. This is evidenced by thecountry’s 2014 natural gas consumption total of 48 bcm8).
Egypt was once a significant exporter of natural gas via both pipeline natural
gas and LNG. However, the country’s falling production and the sequential
convergence of Egypt’s gap between domestic production and consumption has
impacted their potential for exporting natural gas. In 2014, Egypt only exported
0.4 bcm of LNG, all of which was sent to countries in Asia Pacific. In fact, Egypt
even began importing LNG in 2015 in order to fulfil domestic natural gas demand9).
In 2011, during the days of the so-called Arab spring revolution in Egypt, thefact that Egypt is exporting Natural Gas to Israel was a hot issue for Egyptian
people, with the repeating of explosions rocking the natural gas terminal near
Egypt’s boarder with Israel which forced shutdown of export pipeline to Israel,
Jordan and Syria. Egypt exports gas to Israel, Jordan and Syria. By that time,
Egyptian governments faced criticism because of the low price at which the gas is
sold** The researcher was involved in this social discussion as a part of Egyptian society.

1.2 Lebanon
On contrary toEgypt, Lebanon faces a shortage of Natural Gas. In Lebanon,
the potential benefits of a domestic supply of gas are immediately clear. In
December 2010, a seismological survey in Lebanese waters indicated vast natural
gas deposits beneath the seabed, potentially as much as 25 TCF. On this context,
the Lebanese energy minister, Gebran Bassil, declared to BBC that he is pinning his
hopes on hydrocarbon revenues to turn around the country's weak economy,
which has one of the highest rates of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP)in the world[10)].
8) https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/egypt/gas/9) https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/egypt/gas/222❙ Mona Farouk ❙The Lebanese offshore area covers a total of 22,730km2 in the Eastern
Mediterranean. On 22nd February 2012, the Lebanese Ministry of Energy and
water

has

declared

that

this

offshoreareahasbeen

licensed

for

the

first

hydrocarbon exploration. This first offshore licensing round came after the French
consultant group, Beicip-Franlab was contracted to interpret more than 10,000 km
of 2D seismic data and to prepare a regional interpretation report in 2011, which
was followed by 3D interpretation analysis, basin modelling and prospectivity
studies. This proved that the large deep Levantine Basin is estimated to containmore than 10,000 metres of Mesozoic and Cenozoic sediments and that the basin
contains

all

the

key

elements

forsuccessfulhydrocarbon

exploration

withdeepwater hydrocarbon plays within the Tertiary (Miocene / Oligocene sands)
anticlinal structures enhanced by large potential stratigraphic traps. Nearer to shore,in relatively shallower water, hydrocarbon leads have also been recognized in thebasin margin invoking new petroleum systems 11).
In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the undiscovered oil andgas resources of the Levant Basin Province to be around 1.7 billion barrels1 ofrecoverable oil and 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf)2 of recoverable gas. The resources
are considered to be the world’s largest gas discoveries of the decade.

1.3 Palestine
World Energy Council’s shows no data for Palestine’s Natural Gas.

As ThePalestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip produce neither oil nor
natural gas. U.S. government figures, as reported in the CIA World Fact book,estimate electricity consumption in 2010 in the West Bank as being 4.573 billion
kilowatt-hours. The equivalent figure for the Gaza Strip, but for 2009, is given as
202,000 kilowatt-hours. The 2010 estimated figure for Israel a comparatively huge
48.73 billion kilowatt hours12). According to Palestinian officials, current demandfor electricity in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is 1,200 MW. Demand is expected
to grow to 2,000 MW by 202013).
10) Yolande Knell, "Gas finds in east Mediterranean may change strategic balance", BBC News, Jerusalem, 13 May
2013. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22509295
11) "Lebanon Fist Licensing Round", Petroleum Administration, Ministry of Energy and Water, Republic of Lebanon,
22 Feb. 2012.
http://www.eisourcebook.org/cms/June%202013/Lebanon%201st%20Offshore%20Licensing%20Round.pdf12) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/223 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

Gaza already struggles to meet even basic electricity needs, while seasonal power
shortages are emerging in the West Bank. With demand growing demand at 3.5
percent annually until 2030, failure to invest in the West Bank’s power sector
would lead to deepening power shortages over time, and in Gaza, would make analready dire situation worse. Implementing a sound energy strategy could boost
economic growth by 0.3 percentage points in the West Bank and 0.5 percentage
pointsin Gaza. The Palestinian territories rely primarily on Israeli imports tomeet its
electricity needs, amounting to 99 percent of total supply in the West Bank and 64
percent of total supply in Gaza14).
For now though it is the Palestinians and the Syrians who are least able totake advantage of the offshore gas that lies under their waters. Further south down
the coastline of the Levant Basin, the Gaza Marine field, 30km off the coast of
the Palestinian territory, has long been known about. In 1999, the Palestinian
Authority awarded the exploration license to British Gas. Gaza Marine, locatedabout 30 km (20 miles) off the Gaza coast, has long been seen as a golden
opportunity for the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority to join the Mediterraneangas bonanza, providing a major source of income to reduce its reliance on foreign
aid. Plans to develop the field -estimated to hold over 1 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas, the equivalentof Spain’s consumption in 2016- were put off several
times over the past decade. The delays were due to internal Palestinian rivalry andconflict with Israel, as well as economic reasons15).
Although in strict legal terms its status is ambiguous, a twenty-five-year
exploration license for the marine area off the Gaza Strip was awarded by the
Palestinian Authority in 1999. The Gaza Marine field was discovered the following
the year, though its natural gas has yet to be exploited. Politics as well as failure
to agree on commercial terms have been the principal reasons for the delay.
Exploitation of the field would provide the Palestinian Authority with an importantrevenue stream. Using Gaza Marine gas may also reduce Israel's need to consume
itsown natural gas to generate electricity for the Palestinians. Ultimately the13) https://www.iec.co.il/en/ir/pages/default.aspx
14) Securing Energy for Development in West Bank and Gaza- Brief, World Bank Group,November 14, 2017.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/westbankandgaza/brief/securing-energy-for-development-in-west-bank-and-ga
za-brief
15) Nidal al-Mughrabi, Shell gives up on Gaza's offshore gas field – Palestinians, Reuters, MARCH 6, 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-israel-palestinians-gas/shell-gives-up-on-gazas-offshore-gas-field-palestinians-id
UKKBN1GH2F4

224

❙ Mona Farouk ❙decision will be political, but in economic terms, the case for the exploitation ofGaza Marine is strong16).
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the geological area
known as the Levant Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean to contain 122 trillion
cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas17). The USGS also estimated undiscovered oil
resources at 1.7 billion barrels and undiscovered natural gas liquids at 3.1 billion
barrels. Apart from a very small producing field in Israel, oil has yet to bediscovered. Most of the natural gas found thus far, around 40 tcf, has been in
Israel’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), though one of the earliest discoveries, in
2000, was offshore the Gaza Strip. The exploitation of this discovery, the Gaza
Marine field (1 tcf), could provide more reliable electricity to the Gaza Strip andboost the revenues of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank18).
However, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has prevented further
development of the field. Political problems due to the Israeli occupation and theinternal Palestinian problems make obstacles for Palestinian to use their newly
discovered natural resources of natural Gas.

1.4 Israel
According to the latest statistics of the World Energy Council (2016), Israeli
Gas production is 6.75Mtoe per year, Gas amount in place is 1.8 thousand Mtoe,
and the amount of Gas recoverable reserves is 163Mtoe19).
Following significant discoveries made at the northern and southern ends of thePalestinian Coast during the decade from 1999 to 2010, Israel went from being anenergy-poor country to a potential exporter of gas to world markets. On thiscontext, Israel has already announced findings at Dalit, Tamar and Leviathan fields
totaling 30 tcf of natural gas and still unproven quantities of oil. The initial
discoveries were made in March 1999 and included the Noa and Mari B gas
fields. In January 2009, explorations west of Haifa revealed the Tamar gas field,
16) Simon Henderson, "Natural Gas in the Palestinian Authority: The Potential of the Gaza Marine Offshore Field",
Washington institute, March 2014.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/opeds/Henderson20140301-GermanMarshallFund.pdf17) http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3014/pdf/FS10-3014. pdf18) http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/Operations/International/Eastern-Mediterranean-128.html, page 137 of 2013
Analyst Conference Presentation.
19) https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/israel/gas/225 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

followed by nearby Leviathan in June 2010. Leviathan alone provides Israel with
17 tcf of gas reserves. Table 2 outlines some of the major Israeli discoveries ofnatural gas as well as the proven reserves in each of the gas fields20).
Israel used to import Natural Gas from Egypt till the occurrence of repetitive
explosions rocking the natural gas terminal near Egypt’s boarder with Israel which
forced shutdown of export pipeline to Israel, Jordan and Syria. But thanks to thenew discoveries of natural gas fields in Mediterranean sea, Israel is most likely toexport natural gas to Egypt soon.
The following part of the study will show more details about the new
discoveries of natural gas including statistics for the gas fields belong to Israel.

3. The New discoveries of Natural Gas in Mediterranean.
Since the beginning of year 2009, massive gas discoveries in the Mediterranean
Sea’s Levant Basin have attracted a flood of investment along with geopoliticaltension as well. This part of the study will shed the light on some of the mostimportant developments of offshore gas projects in the eastern Mediterranean,
focusing on the new discoveries of natural gas in Mediterranean that is relative tothe four countries of the study (Egypt, Palestine, Israel, Lebanon).

3.1 Tamar Gas Field:
In January 2009, the discovery of gas at the Tamar field, located in Israeli
waters 90km west of the port city of Haifa, brought a new scale to the oil andgas industry in the eastern Mediterranean. The field’s reserve estimates were raised
from 3.1tcf before drilling to 5tcf after flow testing of the first appraisal well in
February 2009, and then revised up again to 6.3tcf after the second appraisal well
was drilled. By the time the field entered full production in 2013, reserves were
estimated at 10tcf. The largest-ever gas find in the eastern Med to that point wasalso the largest discovery made by operator Noble Energy, which led the project
alongside a consortium of Israeli partners, and a new energy dawn for Israel,
whose only previous source of offshore gas production was the shallow-water20) http://www.bankmed.com.lb/BOMedia/subservices/categories/News/20150515170326030.pdf

226❙ Mona Farouk ❙Mari-B field (also operated by Noble Energy). According to Noble, by the end of
2017, Tamar supplied 60% of Israeli power generation, underlining the stakes
involved in developing hydrocarbons in the region21).
The following map of figure (1) shows the location of Tamar gas field among
other natural gas field discovered in the Mediterranean Sea.
Figure (1)Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22509295

3.2 Leviathan Gas Field:
In December 2010, Leviathan Natural Gas Field, which is located in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea area off the coast of Israel, was discovered. The discovery issituated in 1,645m of water in the Levantine Basin, located 29km south-west of
Tamar, approximately 130km west of Haifa, Israel (See the map in Figure (1)). At
the time of discovery, the Leviathan gas field was the most prominent field ever21)Chris Lo,Timeline: game-changing gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean, offshore-technology, 13 Dec.
2017.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/timeline-game-changing-gas-discoveries-eastern-mediterranean/227 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

found in the sub-explored area of the Levantine Basin, which covers about
83,000km² of the eastern Mediterranean region. According to Noble Energy,
which once again spearheaded the exploration and now leads the team developing
the project, the field contains 22tcf of recoverable natural gas22).

3.3 Zohr Gas Field
In August 2015,Italian supermajor Eni made huge waves in 2015 with arecord-breaking discovery at Zohr field in block 9 of 15 exploration zones that
Egypt put up for tender in 2012 (See the location of Zohr fiel in the map ofFigure (2)). With more than 30tcf of potential gas resources, Zohr is considered tobe the largest-ever gas discovery in the Mediterranean, and is thought to besignificantly larger than Leviathan gas field. with production beginning just two
and a half years after gas was discovered north of the Egyptian town of Port Said,the project is now ramping up with the aim of production hitting a plateau in
2019. In May 2018, Eni announced the start-up of the third production unit(T-2) in the Zohr field, which will bring the total installed capacity to 1.2 billion
cubic feet of gas per day. Zohr is now producing approximately 200,000 boe/day,of which Eni’s share is currently 75,000. These latest figures boost the exceptional
progress of the Zohr field which, as one of Eni’s seven record projects, plays a
key role in helping Egypt avoid the need to import liquefied natural gas (LNG)23).
Figure (2)Location of Zohr Gas Field22) https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/timeline-game-changing-gas-discoveries-eastern-mediterranean/23) https://www.eni.com/en_IT/operations/upstream/exploration-model/zohr-egypt.page228

❙ Mona Farouk ❙The followingtable of major Israeli gas fields shows that the gas field of Tamar
has started supplying gas to Israel in April 2013 -only four years after its
discovery. It is worth noting that the Tamar field is estimated at 10 tcf and oilcompany Noble Energy has started production with all five wells producing at a
rate of about 300 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). The total current sales,
when added to the existing Mari-B volumes, is estimated to have averaged 700
MMcf/d by the end of 201324). According to the Israeli Ministry of Energy andWater Resources, 14 exploratory gas wells were drilled over 2011-2012. Another13 exploratory gas and oil wells were planned to be drilled by the end of 201325).

Table (1): Major Israeli Gas Fields Discovered and Explored

Major Israeli Gas Fields Discovered and Explored
Gas Field

Noa & Mari B

Tamar

Diathan

Leviathan

Tanin

Estimated Size

1.2 trillion

9 trillion cubic

518 billion

17 trillion cubic

1.2 trillionof Field

cubic feet

feet

cubic feet

feet

cubic feet

1999

January-09

April-09

June-10February-12

2004

April-13

N/A

July-05

N/A

Year of
Exploration
Year of
Production

Delek Drilling;
Operating

Delek Drilling;

Noble

Companies

Noble Energy

Energy;Delek Drilling;
Isramco; Dor
Gas

IsramcoNoble Energy;
Delek Drilling; Delek Drilling;
Noble Energy

Avner Oil
Exploration

Source: Global Deepwater Competition Service (GDC), Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

4. The Impacts of Natural Gas new discoveries on the relationship ofMediterranean countries
A debate had aroused about the impacts of Natural gas new discoveries
regarding the relationship of Mediterranean countries, as it can lead to morebuilding more cooperative relationships between those Mediterranean countries
involved with the new discoveries of Natural gas, and meanwhile, on contrary,24) https://www.bankmed.com.lb/BOMedia/.../20150515170326030.pdf25) www.energy-sea.gov.il/.../Oil%20And%20Gas%20in%20Israel/Histor...

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 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

future may come with disputes in the region regarding this issue.
Focusing on the four countries of this study, we can follow the consequences of
the new discoveries of natural gas on the relationships among those countries. The
following proceedings may give a clearer vision for estimating the impacts of those
discoveries to see whether it can bring a peaceful relations or unlikely conflicts to
the region.
As for the impacts of the new discoveries of natural gas in Mediterranean Sea
regarding Lebanon-Israeli relationships, seeing that tterritorial disagreements haveexisted in the eastern Mediterranean for decades, the gas discoveries at the Tamar
and, subsequently, Leviathan fields, has brought them into focus. Israel andLebanon, in particular, have exchanged sharp words over maritime sovereignty
issues. In August 2010, Lebanon submitted a proposal for the maritime borderwith Israel, endorsed by the US, which excluded the Tamar and promising
Leviathan developments, despite having previously argued that around 30% of the
field lay in its territory. That defused the potential for an immediate flare-up
between the two countries, but tension remains till now, with Israel contending
earlier of 2017 that an offshore area targeted for exploration by Lebanon falls
inside its borders, a move that Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri describedas "a new attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty" 26).
On this context, a MA thesis was published in American University of Beirut
regarding this topic with the title of "Can oil and gas development be a driver forpeace-building? the potential for reconciliation and reconstruction in Lebanon fromthe exploitation of its hydrocarbon resources". According to the conclusion of thisthesis, it has shown that the history of tension between Lebanon and Israel, thelack of diplomatic relations, and lack of any will for peace, make the prospects ofeven basic cooperation unlikely. Also, this thesis recognizes that there are many
inherent risks to using oil and gas as a starting point for peace-building efforts27).
As for Palestinian Israeli relations, conflict has already prevented further
development of the Gas field belongs to Gasa strip. The continuous long conflict26)Chris Lo, op.cit.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/timeline-game-changing-gas-discoveries-eastern-mediterranean/27) Alexander Basil Brown, "Can oil and gas development be a driver for peacebuilding? :the potential forreconciliation and reconstruction in Lebanon from the exploitation of its hydrocarbon resources", Thesis. M.A.
American University of Beirut. Department of Political Studies and Public Administration, 2016230

❙ Mona Farouk ❙between them put limits to the hope for cooperative relation concerning the issue
of natural gas. But if likely the conflict came to an endand a final peace deal issigned between Israel and a state of Palestine, it will be for the two states to agree
their maritime border, and accordingly shares the benefit of the natural gas
peacefully.
For Egyptian-Israeli relations, according to the data previously mentioned in thisstudy, the new discoveries of natural gas in Mediterranean Sea gave the chance toIsrael most likely to become an exporter for natural gas after being importer forlong time. Concerning this issue, there have been already a cooperative relations
between Egypt and Israel that can be seen in former importing of Egyptian
Natural Gas to Israel, and these cooperative relations can be also expected tocontinue in the future in a form of exporting Israeli Natural gas to Egypt, which
is highly expected due to formal declarations of both sides. On this context,
Reuter has reported that An Egyptian company will buy $15 billion of Israeli
natural gas in two 10-year agreements announced on Monday, a major deal that
Israel hopes will strengthen diplomatic ties28).
Briefly, above mentioned content give more expectations for continuous tension
between Israel and Lebanon concerning the natural gas fields in Mediterranean Sea.
Also, the long Israeli-Palestinian conflict indicates continuous conflict over natural
gas sources as well. On the other hand, more cooperative relations are expected totake part between Israel and Egypt regard this issue.

CONCLUSION:
The Mediterranean region has undergone many changes over the last 50 years:
expansion of the European Economic Community and the formation of theEuropean Union; multiple wars and independence movements; the break-up of theformer Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; the discovery of oil deposits andworld fluctuations in oil price. As a backdrop to these political events, the region’s
population has grown steadily - from 250 million in 1960 to nearly 500 million in2010. Simultaneously, the economic output of the region has grown eightfold from $500 billion to over $4 trillion. These changes all contribute to increasing28) Tova Cohen, Ari Rabinovitch, "Egyptian firm to buy $15 billion of Israeli natural gas", Reuters, 19 Feb. 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-egypt-natgas/egyptian-firm-to-buy-15-billion-of-israeli-natural-gas-idUSK
CN1G31BK

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 2018 지중해지역원 연례학술대회

pressure on the Mediterranean natural resources29).
Natural gas is one of the most important sources of clean energy. Knowing thatmost countries of Mediterranean region, especially the eastern region had suffered
lack of energy sources, can give us an idea about the importance of the recent
discoveries of Mediterranean Gas fields, and the importance of searching on theissue of the impacts of these discoveries on the relationships of the countries ofthis region that may come with future disputes accordingly.
The study tried to search for a certain vision for the future prospects of the
new discoveries of natural gas in Mediterranean Sea, but we can say that thedebate is still continued about this issue as there are ongoing developments of thesituation thatstill taking part at the moment. While commercial prospects arestarting to look good for all parties, a real military conflict is also brewing. So,
although the above mention analysis for the impacts of the new discoveries ofnatural gas in the Mediterranean gave some expectation for some sort ofrelationship between the four countries of this study, but uncertainty is stillsurrounding this issue, which can leadto cooperative relations between countries in
the Mediterranean regions like between Egypt and Israeli, and can also bringdisputes and conflicts like between Lebanon and Israel or Palestine and Israel, as
expected according to this study, but with other development of the situations
things can unexpectedly changed to the contrary.This is the nature of researchingin humanitarian studies.

29)Henri-Luc Thibault, MEDITERRANEAN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, The future of theMediterranean: TRACKING ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT TRENDS, Plan Bleu, www.planbleu.org.
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/content/images/uploads/MAVA_report_5.pdf

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