JACST：Online Press Webinar

Prediction of damage by typhoon
from1,000 simulations
Hironori Fudeyasu, Yokohama National University
With Thanks toYoshinori Oikawa, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Hisaki Eito, Nadao Kohno(JMA）
Tetsuya Takemi (Kyoto Univ. ） Masaya Kato, Kazuhisa Tsuboki (Nagoya Univ.)
Kei Yoshimura(Tokyo Univ.） Yuki Kiyoshima・Susumu Ogawa（MTI）
Tomotaka Takara （Aioi) Kazuhiro Tsubono・Oriol G. Rebull（AON）
TOUGOU program from MEXT （2017～2021）
Team Typhoon shotDamage caused by typhoons in Japan

Windstorms and floods that resulted in large insurance payouts

Natural Disasters

Date covered

Amount of Insurance
Payment1

Typhoon 21, 2018

Sep. 3-5, 2018

1,067.8 billion yen

2

Typhoon 19, 2019

Oct. 6-13, 2019

582.6 billion yen

3

Typhoon 19, 1991

Sep. 26-28, 1991

568 billion yen

4

Typhoon 15, 2019

Sep. 5-10, 2019465.6 billion yen

5

Typhoon 18, 2004

Sep. 4-8, 2004

387.4 billion yen

6

Snow damage Feb., 2014

February, 2014

322.4 billion yen

7

Typhoon 18, 1999

Sep. 21-25, 1999

314.7 billion yen

8

Typhoon 24, 2018

Sep. 28- Oct. 1,2018306.1 billion yen

9Rainstorm July, 2018

Jun. 28- Jul. 8,2018

10Typhoon 15, 2015

Aug. 24-26, 2015

195.6 billion yen

Damage by Typhoon No. 19 in 2019
Provided by Satoshi Iizuka at NIED

164.2 billion yen

Insurance payment is estimated amounts, according to the General
Insurance Association of Japan (as of March 2020)

Topic 1
Development of typhoon hazard maps!
Which regions are athigher risk of typhoons?

Ise Bay typhoon (Typhoon Vera) in 1959
reproduced by simulation

Moving the path of a typhoon in a simulation• Simulations of typhoons landing on
and cross all regions of Japan80 – 130 times of simulations for the past 13 cases of typhoons= About 1,500 simulations in total

Typhoon Risk Maps for Wind Storm
Distribution of the average wind speed (m/s) when the typhoon
enters within 300 km of each location.

Collaboration with MTI Ltd.（since 2016）
Implementation of Typhoon Nomogram on the website for daily life,“Life Ranger”

Free distribution began in April 2017 !!
What is theworst typhoon
course for yourcity?

Typhoon Sola-gram

1. Search for "Life Ranger"
on your smartphone.
2. Access Life Rangerwebsite, Menu > Disasterprevention > Typhoon Solagram

Topic ２Development Real-time Damage
Prediction Website, CMAP!
How many buildings are estimatedto be damaged?

Release of a new disaster prevention information disclosure system！

【World First】 Establishment of the website, cmap.dev,
which predicts in real time the number of damaged buildings
by natural disasters <Search ”cmap”>□□ CityNo. of damaged buildings: 3,650(24.81%)<Total No. of buildings : 14, 714 buildings>

Accuracy verification during Typhoon No. 15 in 2019
Estimated No. ofdamaged buildings
Actual No. ofdamaged buildings

Ibarakiprefecture

Chiba
prefecture

TokyoKanagawa
prefecture

Click “No. 15
Vera in 1959

Click“Past”
Move the map

Number of damaged buildings predicted by theestimated damage (10,000 buildings)

If Typhoon Vera would come to your city now,,,

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10-800 -600 -400 -200

Hokkaido and Tohoku
regions
Kanto region
Chubu region
Kinki region
Chugoku and Shikoku
regions
Kyushu and Okinawa
regions

0200

400600Distance in the east-west direction from the actual
course of Tyhpoon Vera (km)Topic ３
Typhoon-Shot Project
Changing the perception of typhoonfrom natural disaster to source ofenergy by 2050!

(1) Social Vision for 2050

Typhoon Shot proposal for the society of 2050
“Changing the perception of typhoon from natural disaster tosource of energy”

When nothing is done,,,Social vision for 2050

ThreatBenefitNaturalenergy

Estimated insurance payments
exceed 2 trillion yen
Largest ever for two consecutiveyears

Key technologies for realization

positive

negative → zero →1SevererDevelopment of control
method by unmanned aircraft

2

Development of typhoon reduction
and typhoon power generation byunmanned sailing ship Unmanned aircraft drop
impact materials to reduce
typhoon force Underwater propellers generate
electricity while sailing against
the strong winds of a typhoon

Current situation

Current situation

Verification of typhoon
reduction by computer
simulation

Verified by small scale
simulated experiments

Today’s Summary

Topic 1Development of typhoon hazard maps !
Which regions are at higher risk of typhoons?

Topic 2Development Real-time Damage Prediction
Website, CMAP!
How many buildings are estimated to be damaged?

Topic 3Typhoon-Shot Project
Changing the perception of typhoon from natural

disaster to source of energy by 2050!