Japan Association for Planning and Public Management

14th FUTURE LEADERs CONFERENCE

Feb. 29, 2020
The University of Electro-Communications

Japan Association for Planning and Public Management
14th FUTURE LEADERs CONFERENCE
Feb. 29, 2020
The University of Electro-Communications
CONFERENCE COMMITTEE
CHAIR
Professor Kayoko YAMAMOTO(The University of Electro-Communications)
MEMBER
Project Researcher Asako IWAMI(Hosei University)
Junior Associate Professor Ayano TAKEUCHI(Toho University)
Researcher Keiichi SHIRAKAWA(Land Institute of Japan)
Assistant Professor Satoru ONO(Ritsumeikan University)
Associate Professor Yuki SHIBATA(Toho University)

Contents

Paper Session A：Public & Education

A1 - Research on explanatory factors to determine efficiency of water suppliers inJapan using panel data: focusing on the merger effect on DEA efficiency .
..................................................................................................... 01*Akira Toyama (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
Tatsuro Sakano (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
A2 - Trends and Issues of “Creative Music Making” in the Music Education of JapanAn Examination Based on the Courses of Music Study in Elementary Schools..................................................................................................... 05*Asuna Watanabe (University of Electro Communications)
Kayoko Yamamoto (University of Electro Communications)A3 - Problems and Solutions for “School Districts” ....................................... 07
Katsuya Masami (Tokushima Bunri University)Paper Session B：Comunity & Industry

B1 - A research on the effect of economic diversity on regional productivity using
growth accounting data from R-JIP2017.............................................. 09*Masaki Shimizu (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
Tatsuro Sakano (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
B2 - Lifelong Leaning .............................................................................. 13
Ami Ogino (Tokushima Bunri University)
B3 - Possibility of AI Customer Service in Movie Theater ............................... 17
Shion Sasaki (Tokushima Bunri University)

A1
Research on explanatory factors to determine efficiency of water suppliersin Japan using panel data: focusing on the merger effect on DEA efficiency（Presenter*） *Akira TOYAMA（Tokyo Institute of Technology）
Tatsuro SAKANO（Tokyo Institute of Technology）
1. Introduction
Water industry in Japan is currently facing several challenges. The facilities constructed at the time of
expanding urbanized areas are now deteriorating. For most water enterprises, the income is decreasing
due to population decline so that they face financial problems such as debt operation and difficulty toallocate enough budget for facility renewal. Particularly small- and medium-sized ones, these problems
are serious. It is necessary to improve efficiency in order to maintain the water industry.
In 2018, the concession method has been introduced to the water industry in Japan by the revision of theWater Supply Law, which aims to increase the efficiency of the water industry. The rationale behind therevision is that firstly the changing ownership from public to private raises incentives to seek efficiency
and secondly the new law induces mergers of water suppliers thus enabling them to take advantage of
economy of scale. According to the reviews of existing studies done by Abbot and Cohen (2009), there
are not strong evidences to show that ownership structure affects the efficiency of water supplier because
the effects of changing ownership structure depend on the level of regulative constraints set on the target
industry. In Japan, although the operative environment is deregulated by new law, there remains strict
constraints on key decisions such as price determination. In such an environment, economy of scale isexpected to play crucial role in increasing efficiency regardless of ownership types.
There are empirical studies on the efficiency of Japanese water suppliers (Nakayama, 2000, 2002;
Harada, 2004; Nakayama, 2015). Nakayama (2002) checked scale economy and found the similar result
as of Abbot and Cohen (ibid.). Scale economy works up to the suppliers operating less than 100 thousand
subscribers. It disappears beyond that operation scale. If there is an optimal scale as shown by theprevious studies, the mergers under the optimal level is desirable but the ones beyond that should be
avoided. However, their analysis used only cross section data and did not compare directly the efficiencychange after mergers for each supplier.
In this study, firstly, we calculate the efficiency of all the retail water suppliers in Japan for 10 years from2007 to 2016 using DEA and examine the general trends of efficiency change for these ten years.
Secondly, we identify the suppliers which experienced merger during this period and detect the changes in
efficiency after merger for each supplier. By comparing the efficiency change of merger experienced
suppliers with the general trend of efficiency change for 10 years, we evaluate the effect of mergers.
2. Method
2.1 Data envelopment analysis (DEA)
Productivity and Efficiency are similar but different concepts related to economy of scale. Productivity
is defined as the ratio of output to input. The productivities are usually measured by estimating production
functions or cost functions. By comparing the parameter of these functions, we can assess the
productivities for each enterprise. It is also possible to know whether scale economy works or not fromthe shape of the functions in the industry. However, this approach does not assume inefficiency ofenterprises. Therefore, the estimated functions may have possibility to underestimate technologicallypotential productivity. To define efficiency or inefficiency we need to know frontier production function
which show the potential productivity made possible by the existing technology. Efficiency is measured

1

by distance between the enterprise’s productivity and its potential one which is shown by the frontier
production function. Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and Data envelopment analysis (DEA) are thecommonly used techniques to measure efficiency (Abbot and Cohen, 2009).
If we define productivity and efficiency in the way above mentioned, we notice that checking theexistence of scale economy is more complex task than simply estimating coefficients of scale variables on
productivity or efficiency as dependent variables. As we mentioned above, conventional productivity
analysis by estimating production function may have possibility of under estimation concerning scale
impact. On the other hand, when we use efficiency as dependent variable the possibility of overestimation appears because efficiency is measured by the distance from the frontier production function
not from the optimal productivity point on the frontier. This problem can be solved using DEA.
The details of DEA are written in Tone (1993). To put it briefly, DEA is a method of evaluating
efficiency, which determines efficiency by comparing productivity (input/output) with the enterprise withthe highest productivity. The group of enterprises with the highest productivity is called the production
frontier. DEA has two models: CRS (constant return to scale), and VRS (variable return to scale). In
CRS, efficiency is expressed as the product of enterprise specific technical efficiency (ETE) and scaleefficiency. VRS is a model that eliminates the effect of scale on efficiency, so the efficiency value
measured by VRS indicates ETE. The ratio of the efficiencies of these models can be interpreted as scaleefficiency.
In addition to that, by using VRS, it is possible to divide the production space, defined as a subset of thecartesian product of inputs and outputs, into three areas, IRS (increasing return to scale), CRS (constantreturn to scale), and DRS (decreasing return to scale). Economy of scale will work only for the enterprises
positioned in IRS area.
2.2 Data and variables
Table 1 shows the number of retail water suppliers analyzed in this study. The data are collected fromthe "Local Government Enterprise Yearbook (Chihou Koei Kigyou Nenkan)" published on the Ministry ofInternal Affairs and Communications website for the fiscal year 2007-2016.
Table 1 The number of Suppliers

For calculating efficiency, one input and three output variables below are used.
Output Y : annual total volume of water sold (yen)Input X1 (labor): the number of workers (person)
X2 (capital): tangible fixed assets (yen)X3 (other input): sum of variable cost (yen)
3. Result
3.1 Trend of efficiency change from 2007 to 2016
The average of efficiencies for all suppliers is calculated year by year. Table 2 shows the result.
Although there are fluctuations, there seems to exist increasing trend. It increased slightly as year went
on. Harada (2004) showed that the CRS efficiency for a single year in 2001 was 0.367 and the VRS was
0.428, suggesting that there is a time trend of efficiency improvement.
Comparing the efficiency by the organizational status, the efficiencies of prefecture and Ordinance-2

designated city are higher than those of Cities, Towns and Villages. This indicates scale economy existed.
Table 2 Average efficiency

3.2 Effect of merger
During 2007 to 2016, there were 48 cases of merger in which 105 suppliers experience merger. Whenexamining the change in the efficiency value before and after merger, the rate of the CRS efficiency change
was 1.153 on average and the change rate of the VRS efficiency was 1.333 on average. The averageannual rate of change in efficiency for all suppliers for these ten years was 1.018 for CRS and 1.014 for
VRS. There were positive effects on efficiency both for CRS and VRS.
It can be intuitively imagined that the scale efficiency is improved by merger, but the results show that
the VRS efficiency value (enterprise specific technical efficiency) excluding the effect of the scaleefficiency is also improved by merger. This may be due to the effect of management formalization
corresponding to the scale expansion. For example, when the number of employees increases, themanagement of managers is less likely to be distributed to all employees than when the number of
employees is small, and the managerial efficiency cannot be realized without management formalization.
Therefore, it is thought that inefficient management will be eliminated to some extent by merger.
Table 4 shows the domains where merger occurred and the difference of efficiency change rate. 70 %of merger experience suppliers are positioned in IRS domain. Considering scale efficiency is to beworked in this domain, this result shows most of merger were conducted as rational decisions. Actually,
CRS efficiencies are larger than 1 for all the mergers in this domain. However, not all of VRS efficiencies
in this domain are larger than 1, which implies scale of IRS domains is not large enough for managerial
improvement. In fact, the largest change of VRS efficiency were observed in the suppliers whose aftermerger position were in DRS domain.

Table 4 Efficiency Change by merger domain

Table 3 Annual change rate of efficiency

34. Conclusion
In this paper, the following results were obtained by DEA on time series data of Japanese water supplier.
(1) A slight positive yearly trend effect was confirmed.
(2) The improvement of the efficiency by merger was higher than the trend effect of the whole waterindustry. The reveals that there is economy scale in Japanese water industry. It is possible to increase
efficiency by merger.
(3) However, the scale efficiency works only for the suppliers in IRS domains. Even so, managerial
efficiency is considered to work in DRS domains. Therefore, the merger in DRS domain is not always
decreasing efficiency.
In this study, we did not include other explanatory factors other than merger. Theoretically speaking,economy of density, economy of scope, and impacts of different regulative environment and governancestructure should be explored.

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<References>
Abbott M., Cohen B. (2009) “Productivity and efficien-cy in the water industry” Utilities Policy 17,
pp. 233-244
Mizutani F., Urakami T. (2001)”Identifying network density and scale economies for Japanesewater supply organizations” Paper in Regional Science Vol.80, pp.211-230
Phillips M. A. (2013) “Inefficiency in Japanese water utility firms: A stochastic frontier approach”
Journal of Regulatory Economics Vol.44 No.2, pp.197-214
関西社会経済研究所 (2011)「地方公営企業の効率性に関する研究」
齋藤博康 (2014)「英国水法変遷史」月刊下水道 Vol.37 No.12, pp.39-44
総務省自治財政局公営企業経営室(2019)「水道事業の課題と取組について」
http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000618172.pdf
高田しのぶ (1997)「水道事業の経営効率に関する研究―DEA によるアプローチ―」筑波大学大学院農学研究科修士論文
刀根薫 (1993)「経営効率性の測定と改善―包絡分析法 DEA によるー」日科技連
中山徳良 (2000)「水道事業における技術非効率性の計測と原因」公益事業研究 第 52 巻
第 2 号, pp.91-96
中山徳良 (2002)「水道道事業の費用構造-可変費用関数によるアプローチ-」公益事業研究
第 54 巻 第 2 号, pp.83-89
中山徳良 (2015)『日本の水道事業の技術効率性に影響を与える要因の分析』オイコノミ
カ第 52 巻 第 1 号, 101-112
原田禎夫 (2004)「水道事業の効率性分析」経済学論叢(同志社大学経済学会) 第 55 巻 第4 号, pp.565-598
吉川丈, 磯合良輔, 矢根遥佳, 矢根眞二 (2012)「確率的生産フロンティアと環境変数：技術効率性効果フロンティアモデルの上水道事業への適用」桃山学院大学経済経営論集(桃山学院大学綜合研究所)第 53 巻 第 4 号, pp.59-97.

4

A2
Trends and Issues of “Creative Music Making” in the Music Education of Japan:
An Examination Based on the Courses of Music Study in Elementary Schools*Asuna WATANABE（University of Electro-Communications）
Kayoko YAMAMOTO（University of Electro-Communications）
1. Introduction
The courses of music study (COMS) introduced “Creative Music Making” (CMM) based on thetheory established by John F. Paynter in the U.K into Japanese school music education in 1989. CMM isa system for total music learning through the experience of music-making and appreciation, and it
enables students to cultivate their better understanding of modern music and creativity. However, manyof music teachers get confused in trying to put CMM into practice, and they frequently interpret andassess its aim and goal in a wrong manner. One of the reasons for this, Takasu (1994) [1] pointed outthat the concept of “creativity” in the COMS is not incontrovertible. However, according to Sakai(2010) [2], the studies on the above issue have decreased since the 2000s onwards, and the current
situation related to CMM is not sufficiently clarified. Tanimoto (2017) [3] only shows that“music-making” practice is still under 15% of school music education in recent years. Because“music-making” practice in the COMS should be continuously promoted, first of all, it is essential toclarify the causes to confuse music teachers as previously noted. Based on the above background, thisstudy aims to disclose the current trends and issues of CMM especially in elementary schools.
2. MethodFirst, this study grasps the background of CMM introduced into the COMS after the World War II in
Japan reviewing the related literatures. Next, this study clarifies the development of CMM conducting
word analysis of the above COMS by referring the database of courses of study [4]. Based on theseresults, this study describes the relationships between the goals of the COMS and CMM.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Background of CMM introduced into the COMS
In 1947, the COMS declared promoting music education as the cultivation of students’ aesthetic
sentiments in its preface, and it sets the following six goals to foster and acquire; (1) rich human nature,(2) invention, (3) expression, (4) score-reading, (5) music-appreciation, (6) musical knowledge and skills.
In 1958, the COMS made much account of children-centered education and reconsidered artistic
creativity in music education. The COMS presented common-songs to provide music education based onchildren’s daily life, and composed two learning contents such as “expression” including singing, playing
the instruments and composition, and “appreciation”. In 1968, the COMS included “foundation” into thelearning contents to aim at cultivating children’s musical abilities step by step. “Foundation” is thelearning content which is common to “expression” and “appreciation”. Though the COMS emphasized
the teaching of “foundation” related to “expression” and “appreciation”, most of music teachers
separately taught these to students.
Since the 1970s, the policy of Japanese music education has changed to promote flexible education,
due to the full contents of school education. In elementary schools, music classes were reduced, and it isnecessary for music teachers to think out new ideas to improve music education. Therefore, the COMS
reconsidered the learning contents and promoted a system for total music learning. In 1977, the COMS
eliminated “foundation”, and clearly showed each subject-goal in one sentence. A new phrase whichmeant “a love of music in human nature” was included into the above the subject-goal for music. The

5

COMS changed the direction from developing musical skills to fostering children’s mind to get close to
the music. The COMS aimed at promoting music classes focused on children-centered education anddeveloping their abilities (motivation, thinking, judgment and expression). As a result, in 1989, CMM asa system for total music learning, which is highly suitable with the above idea, was introduced into theCOMS.
3.2 Development of CMM in the COMS
CMM was indicated as “creating and expressing the music” in the COMS for elementary schools. It
meant that children had to put originality and ingenuity into creating their original music in addition to
the expression of existing musical works. The practice depended on children’s sound-making, and it was
far from the essence of CMM. In 2008, the COMS expressed the concept of CMM as “music-making” inJapanese, and added “common-items” to learning contents. “Music-making” was indicated to createsounds and music based on children’s ideas and creativity without the expression of existing musicalworks. “Common-items” is positioned in the COMS to support “appreciation” and “expression”
including singing, playing the instruments and music-making. In 2017, the goal of each subject was set
according to the following three qualities and abilities; (1) knowledge and skills, (2) thinking, judgment
and expression, etc., and (3) humanity, etc. The COMS defined the teaching contents by relating the goals
with the qualities and abilities. The COMS separated music-making into two activities such as “playing
with music and improvisational musical expression” and “making sounds into music”. The COMS
specifically showed the process from goal to teaching contents and evaluation, by clearly showing
children’s’ musical knowledge and skills which were necessary for these two activities.
4. Conclusion
The above series of the COMS set each subject-goal and general learning contents, and these were
improved every ten years. Japanese music education has been promoted as the cultivation of students’aesthetic sentiments which reflected militaristic education. However, the learning contents were biased todevelop children’s musical skills and abilities, and the COMS faced a problem of “creativity”. The
COMS expanded the interpretation of expression to creativity, and aimed at children-centered class.
Though the COMS revised the learning contents and its structure, the above problem was not solved.
Therefore, the COMS adopted CMM to solve the above problem, and that caused other issues related tothe interpretation of its theory as a result. It is necessary to more concretely describe the learning contents
related to CMM, and clearly display the appropriate teaching contents in the COMS.
Additionally, chronologically looking at the changes in the series of the COMS, though CMM is still
promoted and its contents are more specific. CMM was not sufficiently put into practice yet, because themeaning of a system for total music learning as its essence is still not clear to most of music teachers.
Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the examples of CMM practice, and clarify whether it can be put into
practice in an effective and efficient manner.
<References>[1] Takasu, Hajime (1994). Souzouteki Ongakugakusyuu ni okeru “Souzousei Ikusei no Saikou:Souzousei Ikuseinikansuru J.F.Paynter no Kennkai wo toshite (Reconsideration of "Creative Music Making" - through the opinion by J.F.
Paynter about raising creativity), Onngaku Kyouikugaku (Japanese Journal of Music Education Research), vol.24 (2), pp.
25-36.
[2] Sakai, Megumi (2010). "Ongaku-Dukuri" no Kyouikuteki Konkyo ni kannsuru Kenkyuu: Yoisa no Kai no Jissenn wotegakari ni Oto wo kikukoto ni tuiteno Bigakuteki Kousatu wo humaete (A study on the Educational Grounds of“music-making”:The Aesthetic Considerations about listening to sounds based on the practice of Yoisa-no-kai Society).
Tokyo University of the Arts, Doctoral Dissertation.
[3] Tanimoto, Naomi (2017). “Kyoushi no Htsuwa Bunseki kara Miru’Ongaku-dukuri’ no atarashi Igi” (The New Role of
Creative Music Making from the Viewpoint of Teachers’ Utteraces: Compared with Singing and Playing Instruments).
Research bulletin, Tōin University of Yokohama, vol.37, pp.21-28.
[4] National Institute for Educational Policy Research. (2019). Database of courses of study, Retrieved 4th, February, 2020,
from https://www.nier.go.jp/guideline/

6

A3
Problems and Solutions for “School Districts”
Katsuya Masami（Tokushima Bunri University）
1. Introduction
In recent years, children's academic ability has declined. In addition, schools inmountainous areas have lost liveliness due to the declining birthrate. I think we have toreseach “school district” to solve these two problems.
In the Meiji era in japan, the history of “school districts” began with the primary purposeof equalizing high school education level. Tokushima prefecture started in 1873. It wasFirst this system was adopted nationwide in japan, but now it is adopted only 23
prefectures. Preceding studies of this system evaluate that prefectures abolished thissystem are advanced prefectures. I will report only the case of Tokushima prefecture.
Tokushima prefecture has adopted the current “three” school district system since 1972.
The southern part of the prefecture is “first school district”, the northwestern part is “thesecond” and the central part is “the third”. However, examinees living in towns or villages
no high school are allowed schools located in “the third” district. The main problem at thissystem is that competition of examinee rate. In Tokushima Prefecture, every year the ratio
for high school entrance examinations is settled to one, and the competition rate is almost
eliminated. Eliminating the competitive rate will lead to a decline in overall academic
ability. Furthermore, examinees are gathered in the center of the prefecture, and thenumber of examinees at mountain high schools is decreasing. These are the issues that
continue to adopt the school district system. The hope of junior high student for enroll inthe desired high school come true. It is important life goals equalization of chance
educational.
2. MethodFirst, I checked high school enrollment rate was checked using date by Ministry of
Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. I try to find out the primary goals of
equal education opportunities the district system have been met.
Next, we used the census to investigate the number of households in Tokushima.
Examine how the number of households in near Tokushima city erea is changing, although
the population of Tokushima Prefecture is declining.
Finally, I used data from Tokushima prefectures that abolished the school district system
and looked at what happened afterwards and try examine to refer to other prefectures
efforts to better school district system.

7

3. Result
According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology now,high school enrollment rate in Japan is 98%. It is also at a high level compared to foreigncountries. However, almost “no examination” probrem is magnification in Tokushima.
According to the census, the number of households in Tokushima Prefecture is increase at
the center erea. In particular, the number of households in the area where students can go
to the third school district has increased significantly.
Finally, according to a report by Shimane Prefecture, the school district system wasabolished, schools have been reported to be revitalized and attractive, in Hiroshima,
Yamaguchi and Tottori prefectures.
4. Conclusion
There are three points of my presentation.
First is that the purpose of education is different. In the past, high school enrollment rate
was low, but not low now. The enrollment rate is almost 100%, and the purpose of the
district system has been achieved. So this system should be abolished. I think the school
district system has been abolished and it is better to use market principles to increase
competitiveness in the future. Because using market principles, schools try to be more
attractive to attract examinees. In addition, examinees become more competitive.
Second, the change in the number of households in Tokushima Prefecture. The central
area is mainly the third school district, the meaning of the school district system will be
lost.
Third, in the prefectures that abolished the school district system, high school
revitalization and specialization were seen. Hiroshima, Yamaguchi and Tottori prefecture
also had the same problem with school districts as Tokushima. But these prefecture solved
the problem by abolishing the school district system. In particular, Tottori Prefecture issimilar to Tokushima Prefecture, so it will be helpful.
I think that it is better to abolish the school district system.
<References>https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/41081761.pdf
https://www.mext.go.jp/component/a_menu/education/detail/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2011/09/
27/1299178_01.pdf
www.pref.tokushima.jp/_files/.../h27kokuchosokuhou.pdf
https://www.pref.shimane.lg.jp/gakkokikaku/saihen/kongonokennritukoukounoarikatakent
ouiinkai/index.data/09_siryou6.pdf

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B1
A research on the effect of economic diversity on regional productivity using
growth accounting data from R-JIP2017* Masaki Shimizu （Tokyo Institute of Technology）
Tatsuro Sakano （Tokyo Institute of Technology）
1. Introduction
In recent years, in Japan, the urban policy called compact city has attracted attention due to population
decline and aging society. In the discussion about compact cities in Japan, it is heavily concerned withmeasures against population decline and aging, but according to Kutsuzawa (2017), it has the effect ofimproving sustainability and productivity. This research focuses on the effect of productivity improvement.
Kutsuzawa focuses on the theory of agglomeration economy to explain this effect. It is argued that
there are two types of agglomeration economies: localization economies and urbanization economies(Rosenthal, 2006). Both economies are understood as two types of external economies of scale.
Localization economies refer to the phenomenon that the productivity of the entire industry increases whencompanies of the same industry cluster in a city/region, and urbanization economies refer to thephenomenon that the productivity of the entire industry increases when companies cluster in larger
city/region.
Theoretically, it has been argued that agglomeration of the same industry causes localization
economies for three sources of externalities: knowledge spillovers, input sharing and labor pooling(Marshall, 1920). Nakamura (1985) estimates that a doubling of industry scale leads to 4.5％ increase inproductivity. On the other hand, in urbanization economies, he argues that Marshall’s externalities work
across over the industries. Jacobs (1969) argues if main source of crossover externalities reside inknowledge spillover, diversity of economic activities is the main source of innovation. The increase in sizeof a city/region occur the increase in productivity of every individual company in an entire city/region by
diverse industrial activities. Therefore, urbanization economies can be translated into economies ofdiversity. Rosenthal & Strange (2004) estimates that doubling city size seems to increase productivity by
3~8%.
However, there is not always a consensus on whether localization economies and urbanization
economies have the higher effect of productivity enhancement. Tran (2011) argues that localization brings
about higher growth rate in short terms but urbanization does stable growth in longer terms from the stateslevel comparison in the U.S. Hollar (2006) argues localization (scale) works better in small district whileurbanization (diversity) does in metropolitan region. On the other hand, van Oort (2004) argues that the
network relationship among cities is also important. It can be said that existing research cannot explain
sufficiently the complex patterns.
The purpose of this research is to clarify which economies work at Prefectural Level in Japan,
localization economies or urbanization economies. The prefectures are medium scale between the small
scale, where localization economies are expected to work, and the metropolitan area, where theurbanization economics are expected to work by Hollar (2006), and this is one of the typical cases where
it is not enough to theoretically explain how the special network relationship in Japan affects. In addition,
to clarify the mechanism of the effects of agglomeration in the spatial area controlled by the prefectures
responsible for regional economic policy is considered to contribute to spatial economic policy planning.
2. Method9

First, in localization economies, it is expected that the higher the concentration of the same industry inthe same area, the higher the productivity of that industry. In existing research, the number of offices andemployees are often used as the degree of local agglomeration, but in this study, the total added value ofthe industry is used. Because these three variables are highly correlated and agglomeration effects extend
the effect of scale on producer-specific production to regional externalities, it is natural that it complements
the scale on output. In localization economies, if all industries have a positive effect and the economic sizeof the entire region increases with a constant industrial diversity distribution, localization economies
appear in all industries, so the labor productivity of the entire region should improve. This suggests thatthe greater the total added value of each prefecture, the higher the labor productivity of that prefecture.
Next, diversity of industrial activities is expected to have a positive correlation with the total added
value of the prefecture. It is expected that the larger prefectures are more urbanized and their economies
are more diversified. Since the effect of scale can include the effect of diversity, regression analysis isperformed using entropy calculated based on relative proportion of added value by industry as anindependent variable to separate the effects. Then, the effects of diversity confounded by the effects of scale
can be separately evaluated. In urbanization economies, entropy is expected to have a positive effect onlabor productivity by prefecture. In that case, the explanatory power should be superior to the model using
only scale as the independent variable, and the explanatory power of the scale should decrease. Thistendency also holds when the labor productivity growth rate is used as the dependent variable. Furthermore,
if urbanization economies are due to knowledge spillover, the effect of entropy is considered to have astronger effect on TFP among labor productivity.
As analysis method based on the above discussion, OLS estimation of the following three models
performed, and the model fitness and the estimated values of α1 α2 β1 β2 are compared.
Model 1: 𝑌𝑟 = 𝛼1 𝑆𝑟 + 𝛾1 + 𝜀𝑟
Model 2: 𝑌𝑟 = 𝛽1 𝐷𝑟 + 𝛾2 + 𝜀𝑟 ,Model 3: 𝑌𝑟 = 𝛼2 𝑆𝑟 + 𝛽2 𝐷𝑟 + 𝛾3 + 𝜀𝑟 .
Here, dependent variables 𝑌𝑟 are labor productivity in prefecture r and labor productivity growth rate inprefecture r, TFP growth rate of prefecture r. Independent variables are 𝑆𝑟 , real added value of prefecturer and 𝐷𝑟 . diversity of economic activities in prefecture r .
As a measurement 𝐷𝑟 , we use entropy. If p𝑖𝑟 is the ratio of the total added value of the i industry
in r prefecture, the entropy index is given by Eq. (1). When it is close to 0, it is an area that specializes in acertain industry only, and when it is close tolog 𝑁, it is an area that has diversity.
𝑁𝑁− ∑ p𝑖𝑟 log p𝑖𝑟 = − ∑
𝑖=1

𝑖=1

𝑥𝑖𝑟
𝑥𝑖𝑟
log
𝑥𝑟
𝑥𝑟

(1)

To measure productivity by prefecture, a growth accounting analysis was used following Tokui's(2018, p29) formula. The formula for growth accounting is summarized in the form of Eq. (2), where 𝑌𝑟𝑡 ,TFP is 𝐴𝑟𝑡 , capital is 𝐾𝑟𝑡 , and labor is 𝐿𝑟𝑡 in r prefectures at year t.
(2)
Δ log 𝑌𝑟𝑡 = Δ log 𝐴𝑟𝑡 + αΔ log 𝐾𝑟𝑡 + (1 − 𝛼)Δ log 𝐿𝑟𝑡′
By putting that 𝑉𝑖𝑟𝑡 is the real added value, 𝑉𝑖𝑟𝑡 is the nominal added value, 𝐻𝑖𝑟𝑡 is the man-hour, and𝑉′ ⁄ ′the nominal value added share is 𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡
= 𝑉𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑉𝑟𝑡 . Therefore, the labor productivity growth rate by
prefecture can be obtained from Eq. (3). The TFP growth rate by prefecture can be obtained from Eq. (4).
23

23

1 𝑉
1 𝑉
𝑉
𝑉
Δ log 𝑌𝑟𝑡 = ∑ (𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡+ 𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡−1)Δ log 𝑉𝑖𝑟𝑡 − ∑ (𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡+ 𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡−1)Δ log 𝐻𝑖𝑟𝑡
2
2
𝑖=1

𝑖=1

10

(3)

23

1 𝑉
𝑉
Δ log 𝐴𝑟𝑡 = ∑ (𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡+ 𝑆𝑖𝑟𝑡−1)Δ log 𝐴𝑖𝑟𝑡
2

(4)

𝑖=1

For this analysis, the R-JIP2017 database created and published by the Research Institute of
Economy, Trade and Industry was used. This database is composed of (calendar year) annual data such asmeasurement results of real and nominal added value and capital and labor input considering thedifferences in quality, inter-prefectural disparities in total factor productivity levels by industry, total factor
productivity growth rate by prefecture and industry in order to measure total factor productivity by 47
prefectures (Okinawa prefecture since 1972) x 23 industries. The data period is from 1970 to 2012.
Figure 1 shows the national average labor productivity growth rate. Before the economic bubble
burst in 1991, labor productivity growth averaged 4%, even when fluctuating between 1% and 8%. Since
then, it has fallen to around 2% on average and the runout has been reduced to about 1%. This trend has
continued until financial crisis in 2009. It is known that the economic growth rate tends to decrease as themature economy. Mizobata (2018) called the catch-up period from 1970 to 1990 and the frontier period
from 2000 to 2010. In the subsequent analyses, we will check if there are any structural change occurredfrom the catch-up to the frontier period.
Table 1．Labor productivity (1970~2010)
Model 1Model 2Model 3B

B

B

p-valuep-valuep-valueconstant -6.052 0.000 -0.284 0.733 -7.218 0.000
𝑆𝑟

0.702 0.000

―

𝐷𝑟

―

1.264 0.000 0.887 0.001――

0.619 0.000

R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2
0.494 0.482 0.245 0.228 0.608 0.590

Fig 1. Growth rate (national average)

3. Result
Table 1 shows the results of OSL estimation for three models, with labor productivity of prefecture as
the dependent variable and the logarithm of real added value and entropy measured by proportion ofindustrial activities as independent variables.
The adjusted R-squared was the highest for Model 3 with both independent variables, and that ofModel 1 with only real added value comes to second, that of Model 2 with only entropy was the lowest.,
The regression coefficient of all models had statistically significant positive effects, and the regression
coefficient of Model 3 was lower than the regression coefficients of Model 1 and Model 2. These facts
indicate that scale and diversity are positively correlated with each other, but they have independent effects
on labor productivity. Table 2 shows the results of comparing the estimates for the entire
period with those for the catch-up period and the frontier period in Model 3, which had thehighest explanatory power. The adjusted R-squared in the frontier period is lower than that in the catchup period, but the regression coefficient is positive in both periods, and the mechanism of agglomeration
economy operates in the same way even after the economy becomes matured.
Similar analyses were performed using labor productivity growth and TFP growth as the dependent
variables. These results are shown in Tables 3 and 4. It was found that the adjusted R-squared of the models
of both variables were lower than those of the labor productivity model, and the adjusted R-squared, which
was relatively high in catch-up period, became almost zero in frontier period, there are no independent
variables with significant effects in frontier period. Therefore, it is considered that the growth rate is easily

11influenced by factors such as economic fluctuations other than scale and diversity. In addition, all signsof the regression coefficients with significant effects are positive, also TFP growth rate had significant
effects on both the real added value and entropy, whereas labor productivity growth rate had significant
effects on only the real added value.
Table 2．Labor productivity

Table 3．Labor productivity growth rate

1970~20101970~1990

2000~20101970~20101970~1990

2000~2010

B

B

B

B

B

B

p-valuep-valuep-valueconstant -7.218 0.000 -5.679 0.000 -8.917 0.000

p-valuep-valuep-valueconstant -0.594 0.762 -6.024 0.023 5.698 0.144

𝑆𝑟

0.619 0.000 0.507 0.000 0.803 0.000

𝑆𝑟

0.090 0.556 0.358 0.113 -0.299 0.273

𝐷𝑟

0.887 0.001 0.579 0.021 1.042 0.008

𝐷𝑟

0.845 0.035 2.037 0.000 -0.048 0.945

R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2

R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2

0.608 0.590 0.520 0.498 0.471 0.447

0.120 0.080 0.380 0.352 0.027 -0.017

4. Conclusion
Table 4．TFP growth rate
The results showed that both independent
1970~2010 1970~1990 2000~2010
variables had significant positive effects independent
B p-value B p-value B p-valueof labor productivity. The same effect was confirmed
constant -5.630 0.007 -12.35 0.000 4.589 0.242
during catch-up period and frontier period, when𝑆𝑟 0.371 0.021 0.738 0.002 -0.309 0.262
economic structure was considered to have changed
𝐷𝑟 0.745 0.065 1.872 0.001 0.010 0.988
significantly. This shows that both economies of scalecorresponding to localization economies andR2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2
economies of diversity corresponding to urbanization
0.217 0.181 0.472 0.448 0.028 -0.016
economies work.
However, it is confirmed that the effects of agglomeration economies on productivity growth rate
disappears in the frontier period. To compare with the research that labor productivity growth rate inother mature countries is supported by TFP growth rate, it is thought that there are common obstructive
factors of TFP growth rate in all prefectures of Japan. It is considered if these obstructive factors are
removed, agglomeration economy may be set in motion in Frontier period as in the Catch-up period.
<References>1)

Hollar, M. 2006, Industrial Diversity and Agglomeration Economies, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development Working Paper #REP06-03
2) Jacobs, Jane. 1969, The Economy of Cities, Random House.
3) Marshall, Alfred. 1920, Principles of Economics, London: Macmillan
4) Nakamura, Ryohei. 1985, Agglomeration economies in urban manufacturing industries: A case of Japanese cities,
Journal of Urban Economics. Rosenthal, Stuart, and Baum-Snow, Nathaniel. vol 17. p108-124
5) Rosenthal, Stuart S, and Strange, William C. 2004, Evidence on the Nature and Sources of Agglomeration
Economies, Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Henderson, V. and Thisse, J.F.
6) Tran, H.P.D. 2011, Industrial Diversity and Economic Performance: A Spatial Analysis, Ph. D Dissertation,
University of Nebraska7) van Oort, F.G. 2004, Urban Growth and Innovation, Routridge, N.Y.
8) 沓澤隆司，2017，コンパクトシティと都市居住の経済分析，日本評論社， 195p
9) 徳井丞次，2018，日本の地域別生産性と格差 R-JIP データベースによる産業別分析，東京大学出版会，
263p.
10) 溝端幹雄，2018 ”日本の労働生産性に関する地域的接近 医療・福祉への資源偏在と大規模事業所の地域間生産性格差に課題”，大和総研グループ

12

B2Lifelong Leaning＊ Ami Ogino (Tokushimabunri University)
１．Introduction
In Japan, the 21st century has passed 20years in recent years there is a problem lack of humanresources is occurred. Needless to say, this problem is due to a declining birthrate and a declining
population.
In the sector of the industry, the field of back is fixed. For example, most fields require specializedskills such as service sales, nursing care for the elderly people, and nursery staff. As a countermeasureagainst this problem, Japanese government considers increasing and introducing foreign workers.
However, in this paper, as a countermeasure for this problem, I consider a system of "lifelong
learning" effectively utilizes existing human resources.
２．Method
The most suitable environment for achieving “lifelong learning” is “university”. In general,
universities generally go on next to high school, but by using “lifelong learning”, even working adults,
housewives, and the elderly people join can university education.
The book "Can a University Become a Base of Community Knowledge?", "Chapter 5: Opening a
University Aiming at the Fusion of Student Education and Adult Education", Uno Frontier University,
Professor of the Faculty of Human Sociology, Shiraishi (2016). There is a table that compares thecharacteristics of each type of fusion created by him.
This table summarizes how universities have worked on adult education. For each type of openclass, the comparison is made between the presence or No/Yes of an entrance examination, the content
of the program, the subject of the seminar, and the opening of classes at night and on holidays. Whatcan be said from this table is that each university can approach the working people.
Then, it is thought that "lifelong learning" can be realized by university by using “recurrent
education”. But there are challenges.

132-1 Comparison by type of fusion
Entrance

Program contents

Subject of seminar

examination

Night /
HolidayclassesWorking people

For

entrance

working people

For general students

Students andNonemembers of society

examination
Long-term

For

Mainly for

In principle,

student system

working people

general students

individual

Only somecorrespondence
LiberalFor

Mainly forSpecializedNonearts students

working people

general students

for working adults

With
exception

Open lectureNone

For general

None

Yes

None

None

members of societyHigh school

None

High school students

cooperation

and

class

University students

Night class

None

For working people

None

Yes

Senior college

None

Senior andSpecialized

None

University students

for seniors

Source: Can a University Become a Knowledge Base for a Community? Chapter 5 P.67 Table 5-1
Shiraishi (2016) points out the following. ①Because there is a maximum of 10 years of enrollment,
if the curriculum, is changed, university must leave the subjects for the students who learn subject theold curriculum, until the students graduate or drop out. (2) There are students who are forced to dropout of university due to childcare or nursing care. (3) Even if students request full-time work during
the day time and start courses at night on request, there will be variations in desired subjects, and thenumber of students will gradually decrease. Student’s getter popular universities. (5) The morale of
the adult students who enter the school has declined. For example, there are some students who do notwant to study at university and try to utilize only the status of students.(pp.67-68)
In addition, I think that there may be a problem that low-income members of society cannot join
University.
However, there are many working adults and elderly people who want to study again in university.
Actually, a job change webpage “Middle Job Change” is conducting market research targeting middle
age class. As a result, 90% of the respondents answered that they would like to learn again. (201914survey)
The reasons for this are getting ability language foreign, taking and business knowledge, and to get
professional qualifications. I believe that there is a certain demand for university studying, so it isnecessary to have a system that makes it easier to attend. As a solution, I make two proposals. The
first is to provide a scholarship for students for working low income students. This is limited to for
adult student open to join classes with entrance examinations, but I believe that setting up a special
scholarship system can help increasing their motivation.
The second is “online courses." This is a proposal for an open class without an entrance exam.
Students who take online courses join university lectures. Each university has a portal site. Open portalsite for online students can register and take lectures online. Of course, it is ideal to join the crass, but
students who cannot take time even for childcare, nursing care, and working adults, and students
whose commuting distance is clearly long, can take online classes in their spare time. By preparing apage, the student can ask questions, he/she may be able to deepen your understanding. Also, even if
the curriculum is changed, the burden of management will be reduced only by keeping the oldcurriculum on the Internet.
３．Result
By carrying out these and the suggested solutions, the amount of university students increase, and,the elimination lack of specialized human resources occupations that are specialized. Professionals
customize their own timetables. However, when going online, there is a concern that morals will
decline, but the Internet will also be by using the working people can Internet able to manage it. For
example, it is easy to understand if the assignment of the report after attendance and the attendance
history are confirmed.
Unless the curriculum was changed drastic, recording lecture content to the system in the university.
Lecture need not make new presentation in every times. It is good point efficiency.
４．Conclusion
In Japan today, it is said that the aging of the population is declining and the number of humanresources, but it is not without human resources. I think that there may be a shortage of people because
there are people who do not have qualifications because they lack qualifications and knowledge. A
university is the place of learning the university can eliminate.
Universities are under influence the declining birthrate and aging population. The number ofuniversity students is decreasing year by year, and there are some universities where the university
management is severe. I think that in the 21st century, which is said to be the age of 100 years of life,
the demand for "lifelong learning", especially "recurrent education", will increase in the future. I
conclude that liberalizing a university could create new supply and demand.

15

<References>＊Masahiro Kagawa, Mari suzuki, Hidekazu Sasaki, 2008, ”Understand lifelong learning” Minerva
Publishing＊Shiraishi(2016) “Chapter 5: Opening a University Aiming at the Fusion of Student Education and
Adult Education” Takamichi Uesugi, Masahiro Kagawa, Yasuo Kawamura,” Can a University
Become a Knowledge Base for a Community?”, Minerva Publishing, p.61-74＊HUFFPOST, “90% of adults want to learn again. But there is no money or time. What is the issue
of “Recurrent Education”? (Investigation result)”
https://www.huffingtonpost.jp/enjapan/manabinaoshi_a_23433836/
Released on May 21, 2018, Viewed on February 8, 2020

16

B3
Possibility of AI Customer Service in Movie Theater（Presenter） Shion Sasaki（Tokushima Bunri University）
1. Introduction
Recently, subscription services such as VOD (Video On Demand) have begun to spread. The strengthof being able to watch movies wherever you want them when you like them would be as shocking tomovie theaters as the spread of DVDs in the 1980s.
It is feared that the percentage of people who watch movies in movie theaters will decrease more than
before, but in fact data show that the percentage of VOD users who watch movies in movie theaters tends
to be higher. I think that this fact may lead to a good relationship between the movie theater and VOD.
In this study, we focus on the recommendation function using AI, which is one of the major features of
VOD, and consider what effects can be obtained by introducing it to movie theaters. (In this study, we
consider the movie theater to be a “cinema complex”.)
2. Method
Most cinema complexes now have automatic ticket vending machines. And since the theater side
recommends the use of automatic ticket vending machines to the customer, the operating rate is expected
to be high. By equipping this machine with AI technology, it is possible to analyze facial expressions ofusers.
In addition, if member information or the like which is arbitrarily registered in advance is used, a moreaccurate proposal can be made based on the viewing history so far. Cooperation between movie theaters
and VOD service companies has already begun, and if the member of VOD rental system can getcoupons used at linked movie theaters so VOD system get members viewing history and using movie
that own history. We can use data or deciding recommendation movie program.
3. Result
Consider what effects these introductions can provide. The ticketing window at movie theater can becompletely abolished and the number of staff can be reduced. It is possible to aim at the tendency of theappreciation work for local area, and it is easy to make accurate predictions at each movie theater by data.
Until now, sales and sales of advance tickets were used to predict mobilization in theaters. The accuracyof this information will realize.
The customer can prevent a mismatch after viewing by selecting a movie that suits them from thecontents that they have seen so far with AI. The recommendation by AI could make you like movies of agenre you didn't care about. Above all, the theater side can operate efficiently so that it can spend time inplaces where it has not been able to handle it. Humans can serve customers according to the needs ofeach spectator, but we believe that it is possible to reduce the burden by using AI.
4. Conclusion
Movie theaters has excellent environmental facilities for 3D and 4D screening and the pursuit of visual
beauty with IMAX.
However, in order to respond to the level of visitors and away from movie theaters, it is necessary toprovide not only these facilities but also services. The purpose of this research is to consider how tomaintain a movie theater without using people efficiently.

17

<References>
Uema Soichiro, (2009), “An essay on the favorable impacts of cinecom in Japan in the 1990s:
picturedom and tourism” ,The journal of applied sociology 51,167-174
Komuro Tatsuaki, (2009), “Current State and Competitive Advantage of Motion Picture Businesses”,
Kinjo Gakuin University Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 13, 15-28
Hokama Takaya & Choi Minyoung, (2016), “Warner Mycal cinemas : The First Cinema Complex in
Japan”, Okinawa University JOURNAL OF LAW & ECONOMICS 25, 79-97
Kondo Kazuto, (2015), “Communicative Space in / about Movie Theaters: On the Logic of the Mode of
Exhibition during the 1920’s in Japan”, Eizōgaku No.95, The Japan Society of Image Arts and Sciences,
5-22
Saito Morihiko, (2009), Eigakan no Nyūjyō Ryōkin wa naze 1800 yen nanoka? [Why is the admission fee
for a movie theater 1800 yen?], DIAMOND,Inc.
“Survey on Movie viewing in movie theaters” 3th July 2019, NTT COM RESERCH, 2 Feb 2020.
< http://researh.nttcoms.com/database/data/002133/ >18