Mobility2Grid: Electrification of public transportation in Japan and Germany, Kyoto 2024

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin
Past, Present and Future

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar GÖHLICH
Dr.-Ing. Tu-Anh FAY

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

Mobility2Grid: Electrification of public transportation in Japan and Germany, Kyoto 2024

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin
Past, Present and Future➢Prof.
Introductionof Teamand E-Mobility Research
Dr.-Ing. Dietmar
GÖHLICH➢Dr.-Ing.
Past andPresent
Tu-AnhFAY➢ Future and Sector coupling

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

Introduction of Team and E-Mobility Research
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar GÖHLICH

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

Vitae Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar Göhlich➢ 1985 Diplom-Ingenieur, Mechanical Engineering
Technische Universität Berlin➢ 1989 Dr.-Ing. (Ph. D.), School of Mechanical Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA➢ 1989 – 2010 Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Development

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

4Vitae Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar Göhlich➢ 1985 Diplom-Ingenieur, Mechanical Engineering
Technische Universität Berlin➢ 1989 Dr.-Ing. (Ph. D.), School of Mechanical Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA➢ 1989 – 2010 Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Development
Since 2010 at TU Berlin➢ Professor for Product Development and Mechatronics➢ Director Institute of Machine Design and System Technologies➢ Board Member Werner von Siemens Centre for Industry and Science➢ Chairman Mobility2Grid Research Campus in Berlin-Schöneberg➢ Member of acatech
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin5Research @ MPM▪

2 research groups▪

16 research associates▪

20 student plus 4 other employee▪

24 completed doctoral thesis since 2010▪

about 45 student theses per year▪

more than 12 reviewed publications per year
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin6Research Group Sustainable Mobility Systems

A. SyréA. Grahle

F. Kaiser

N. WeberA. Prinz

T. FayL. Heide

A. Gupta

S. GuoT. Tietz

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

7

Methodology for „Green Technology“ Evaluation
Sectors

Base Case

Strategies

Reference Case

Case Studies

Full conversion to
BEVElectric andAutonomous
FleetsFull conversion to
FCEVToolboxResults

Transport
Simulation

Comparing
Evaluation
Technical
Feasibility

VehicleDesignCharging
MethodSystemCosts
Energy Demand

Environment
LCA
EconomyTCO

Social effects

Ex-Post Analysis

Bus Electrification
Researchand Practice inGöhlich - Intelligent
Mobility
Solutions- Berlin
April 2024

Transportation
Time

Environmental
Impacts
SocialImpacts

8

Methodology for „Green Technology“ Evaluation
Sectors

Base Case

Strategies

Reference Case

Case Studies

Full conversion to
BEVElectric andAutonomous
FleetsFull conversion to
FCEVToolboxResults

Transport
Simulation

Comparing
Evaluation
Technical
Feasibility

VehicleDesignCharging
MethodSystemCosts
Energy Demand

Environment
LCA
EconomyTCO

Social effects

Ex-Post Analysis

Transportation
Time

Environmental
Impacts
SocialImpacts

Göhlich et al. (2021): Integrated Approach for the Assessment of Strategies for the Decarbonization of Urban Traffic. Sustainability
Bus Electrification
Researchand Practice inGöhlich - Intelligent
Mobility
Solutions- Berlin
April 2024

9

E-Bus System Technology Options

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

10Göhlich et al. (2018): Design of urban electric bus systems; Design Science

E-Bus System Technology Options

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

11E-Mobility Projects

zeroCUTS II

eBus2030+

E-Bus Berlin*

BVG-Research
Cooperation

E-MetroBus*

E-Bus China*

eFLIPS

zeroCUTS*

BEMU
Battery Electric
Multiple Unit*

moreEVS*

HoLa

ElonsoCurrent and completed projects (finished with *)Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

12Bus electrification research and practice in Berlin
Past and present

Dr.-Ing. Tu-Anh FAY

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

Vitae Dr.-Ing. Tu-Anh Fay▪ 2013 Master of Science, Mechanical Engineering
Technische Universität Berlin▪ 2019 Dr.-Ing. in Mechanical Engineering
Thesis: Systematic technology assessment of system
concepts for the electrification of urban city buses
Since 2013 at TU Berlin▪

Chief Engineer andHead of Research Group Sustainable Mobility Systems▪

Research and Teaching Associate

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

14E-Bus Projects – past, present
E-Bus China (past)

E-Bus Berlin (past)

Simulation Methods and Tools (present)
M2G/BVG

E-Metrobus (present)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

15E-Bus Berlin(past, 01/2013-09/2016)

Slide 16

Basic questions▪

What is the energy consumption of an e-Bus?

▪

What is the required energy/ battery capacity?

▪

Additional load vs. Passengers▪

What time is required to recharge the bus?

▪

Is an e-Bus a feasible option to safely operate in the city?

▪

How reliable is the system?

▪

Which different bus and charging technologies exist?

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

17E-Mobility Projects E-Bus Berlin: System Design and Evaluation
Bus line characteristics

Line 204 Zoologischer Garten  Südkreuz

4x Solaris Urbino 12 electric

Charging Station
6,1 km
18 stops
Frequency 20 min
Avg. Speed 13 km/h

Charging Station

Charging power

Auxiliary energy, traction energy and ambient temperature per week
2.5

Li-Ion NMC
200 kW

Traction power

160 kW

Vehicle weight

13,000 kg

Charging Technology

Inductive

35
30

2.0

25
20

1.5

15
10

1.0

5

Ambient temperature

Cell type

90 kWhEnergy consumption

Battery

0

0.5

-5
0.0

-10
36 37 38 39 40 48 49 50 51 52 53 1

2

3

4

Antriebsverbrauch abzüglich Rekuperation [kWh/km]

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Nebenverbrauch [kWh/km]

min. Umgebungstemp. [°C]max. Umgebungstemp. [°C]

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin18E-Bus-System Competency
Acquisition of Operational Data

Energetic System Design

Nebenverbrauch, Antriebsverbrauch und Umgebungstemp. je KW, 2016

2.5

35

Charging
station

30
2.0

+

25

Body Type

20

1.5

15
10

1.0

0

+/-

Driving
ResistancePower Train

Cabin

HVAC

Power
Loss

+

Charging
Time

Battery

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

…

+

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Antriebsverbrauch abzüglich Rekuperation [kWh/km]

Nebenverbrauch [kWh/km]

min. Umgebungstemp. [°C]max. Umgebungstemp. [°C]

Planning and Economic Feasibility Analysis
State of Charge

Heat/Cooling
DemandClimateOn timeWith delay

Results

Other Aux
Auxiliaries*Battery and Charging System

Life Cycle Assessment
3.5%

CO2-Emissionen durch Herstellung und 12 Jahre Betrieb der Flotte

2.4% 1.4%

2.0

8.3%

1.8

12.0%

E-Bus Anteil
ohne Batterie~ 2,2 t

48.4%

24.0%

kg CO2 äquivalent / km2

Drivetrain, Battery,
Charging System,
HVAC

and more-101Additional
Weight*-Driving Cycle-50.0

Capacity
Loss

EnergyConsumption

No. of
Passenger5

0.5

Chargingvah

EE-Anteil
30 %EE-Anteil46 %E-Bus / Strommix 2015

E-Bus / Strommix 2030

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.2
0.0
Dieselbus
Herstellung generischer Körper

Stähle / Eisenwerkstoffe

KupferAluminium

Kunststoffe (PVC z.B.)

Isolierharz

Sonstige

Herstellung antriebsstrangspezifischer Körper

E-Bus / Windkraft

Herstellung Batterie

Betrieb

Kunststoffe (PE z.B.)

User Acceptance StudyBus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
19

Acquisition of operational data

Protokoll
RUN

Date

StatusID
BusHaltestellestop

Löschendeleting

Last Entry
LetztenEintragbetrieblicheactions
Aktionenoperational

Door 1

Door 2

Door 3

Ortsdurchfahrt

Ortsdurchfahrt

Ortsdurchfahrt

Beginningof Specialcase
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

20Energetic System Design
Parameters and input data
Operational Data

Charging
station+Body Type

ChargingvahNo. of
Passenger+/-

Capacity
Loss

Additional
Weight*EnergyConsumption
Driving
ResistancePower Train

Power
Loss

Driving Cycle
Cabin

HVAC

+

Battery

ChargingTime…
and more+
ClimateBattery and Charge Sytem

Heat/Cooling
DemandOther Aux
Auxiliaries

Results*Battery and Charging System▪ Line characteristics▪ Velocity profilev = f(time)▪ Altitude
h = f(route)▪ Including passenger occurance
and time at stops▪ Climate Data
▪ Temperature▪ Solar radiation▪ Operational Assumptions▪ Number of round trips
until recharging▪ Max dwell time

▪ Battery cell properties▪ Battery type
▪ Volume and weight▪ Discharge curve▪ Capacity▪ Wiring▪ SoC range [SoCmin, SoCmax]▪ Charging system▪ Nominal charging power▪ Volume and weight▪ Delay time
▪ Transmission efficiency

Vehicle Data
▪ Body type
▪ Curb weight (without battery
and charge system)▪ Max. additional weight throughbattery and charging system▪ Front area
▪ Drag coefficient▪ Drivetrain▪ Gear ration▪ Type of driving machine▪ Nominal power▪ Rolling resistance▪ Tyre diameter▪ Auxiliaries▪ Aux. power, P = f(time, temp)

Simulation
model

Results
Energyconsumption

Required charging
time

Regeneration
factorAdditional weight

Aging of battery

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Charging
efficiency

Recuperation rate

21

Exemplary results
Göhlich et al. (2018): Design of urban electric bus systems; Design Science

Opportunity Charging vs. Depot Charging

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

22Simulation methods, tools
and results
As a part of M2G Research Campus and in Cooperation with BVG

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

23

Electrification measures•

In-depth analysis of the technology portfolio and the characteristics of the BVG-routes•

Depot or opportunity charging or mixture?

•

Criteria for measures:•

No isolated solutions; Interoperability•

If possible, no changes to the bus scheduls•

For opportunity charging: Operation must be possible for every vehicle(→ Sufficient recharging time or charging capacity)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

24Simulation and design tool eFLIPS
Analysis of existing schedules
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

eFLIPS: Electric Fleet and Infrastructure Planning/Simulation
Charging strategies
Depot
charging

Opportunity charging
Final stop

Stop

Driving

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Possible applications

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of Demands

Passenger
transport

Waste disposal
traffic

Delivery traffic

Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)

References

LCA (Life Cycle Assessment)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
25

Simulation and design tool eFLIPS
Fleet simulation

Depot simulation

Arrival and departure times of the vehicles, route length, vehicle types to be used,arrival and departure SoC of the vehicles

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

26

Feasibility Analysis of Existing Schedules
Parameters

Operational data:▪ Route network (grid)▪ Schedules▪ Delay data
Technical data:▪ Vehicles:▪ Battery capacity▪ Charging interface▪ HVAC system▪ Charging/refueling facilities:▪ Position on grid
▪ Power, dead time, etc.
▪ Ambient temperature

OutputSimulation

State of charge
Energy/fuel consumption
Load profiles ofcharging/refueling facilities▪
▪
▪

e.g.: operation day,week, …

Results▪

Identification of charging time shortages

Schedule classification▪

!
No fullelectrification!

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
27

eFLIPS: Depot Simulation
Methodology▪ The wide variety of possible solutions are structured
using a morphological matrix▪ Possibility of comparison different charging strategies
as well as depot layouts and process concepts▪ Key Features:▪ Parking Allocation▪ Electric Vehicle Dispatch▪ Charging Management

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin28Integrated Fleet and Depot Simulation:
STEP2

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin29

TCO-Evaluation
Analysis of existingschedules▪ Schedules

Cost parameters

E-Bus schedule▪ Delay data

Design of the fast
charging station▪ Position/number ofcharging stations▪ Vehicle parameters

Annual temperature curve
Annual simulation+ TCO model

Simulation ofoperating processes
Design of the depot
charging infrastructure

Optimization of layout andparking regulations

Example result for aroute network:

Vehicle demand

Grid connection andconstruction costs notincluded in the depot
VehicleBattery
Fast charging
infrastructure
Depot
charging infrastructure

Results for other lines orentire networks may vary!

Power
Vehicle maintenance

Infrastructure maintenance
Staff

Determination of Demands
TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
LCA (Life Cycle Assessment)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
30

E-MetroBus(present, 01/2019-ongoing)

Slide 31The bus line 200: technical aspects and challenges▪

Bus line 200, 18-m articulated buses with opportunity charging and electric HVAC▪

Route:▪

End station 1: rail- and subway station Zoologischer Garten▪

End station 2: Michelangelostr. (Prenzlauer Berg)▪

28 intermediate stops▪

Scheduled one-way trip duration: approx. 44 min▪

Daily service duration: more than 19 hours▪

Route unfolds through traffick-intensive
city areas with challenging road conditions▪

Line with highly demanding conditions for electrification

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
32

Lessons learned during operation▪

Charging infrastructure: Pantographs for fast opportunity charging at end stations, max.
450 kW charging power (in operation with 300 KW)▪

Energy consumption:▪

Peak 02/21: up to 3,35 kWh/km, Average: ~2,02 kWh/km▪

Travel speed: ø 15,8 km/h (analogous to diesel operation)▪

Needed Charging Time (charge up to 97%): 7-15 min

Representatives from:• Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport• Funding body
• Senator for Transport• Local polititicians• BVG• TU Berlin

Introduction of new E-Buses in August 2020
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
33

The aim of the project was to realize a robust e-bus operation under the conditions of highfrequency city bus traffic
The TUB wanted to achieve the following results:

Development of a real-time capable predictive e-bus control system
Identifying opportunities to save energy
Development of a simple tool for determining the total costs
Analysing line operations from an environmental perspective

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

34

Identifying opportunities to save energy▪

Static planning of the worst case -> Overcapacity▪

Static planning of the Average Case -> Problems in traffic jams or in winter/summer▪

Dynamic planning allows to include random factors (weather, delays) -> reduce oversized vehicle and charging systems▪

Continuous simulation of the upcoming trips (for all vehicles on the bus route) -> Early detection of range-critical situations-> allows a reaction by the vehicle dispatcher

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

35

The predictive e-bus control system will make it possible to reduce oversized vehicle andcharging systems in the future without endangering operational stability

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

36

Identifying opportunities to save energy
Problem: Reduction of energy consumption by up to 50% through air conditioning. No empirical basis for thetemperature settings (-> Standard VDV-236)

Summer and winter measurements in real operation including passenger surveys:• Climatic measurements (temperature, humidity, air velocity)• Passenger survey (personal characteristics, thermal sensation)• Bus parameters (consumption, SoC, range)

1. Reduce energy consumption
2. Ensure good thermal comfort

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

37Key results of the study on thermal comfort
Output:▪

Optimum passenger cabin temperature in winter 18°C▪

Thermal comfort in winter mostly good▪

Software adjustment for under-seat blower are needed▪

Adjust positioning of sensors for climate control needed

At very high temperatures (up to 33°C) and with the air conditioning switched on:▪

Reduction of State of Charge increases from approx. 10%/h to up to 19%/h▪

Reduction of Range increases from 8 km/h to up to 16.5 km/h▪

Average temperature inside passenger compartment 5.0 K higher than target temperature in VDV 236 (→ decrease in thermal comfort)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

38

Total cost analysis with a simple Excel tool
Value

SourceInfrastructure

VehicleInfluencing parameters

Consumption

MaintenanceOperation

Maintance Bus

Infra maintenanceBattery cost

DriverTotal TCO

Largest cost parameter: Drivers
Smallest cost parameter: Infrastructure maintenance

Saving potentials by reducing the number of vehicles. Warranty extension for infrastructure
does not lead to any significant cost reductions
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

39

Environmental balance sheet confirms that BVG is on the right track to make a major
contribution to reducing greenhouse gases
Total GHG emissions of the SUD fleet:20168 t CO2eq
Total GHG emissions of the SUE fleet:
10384 t CO2eq (electricity mix 2019)100% green electricity -> 252 t CO2eq→ The production of an SUE (Solaris Urbino 18 Electric) causes
more greenhouse gas emissions than an SUD (Solaris Urbino
18 Diesel)→ The use of vehicles changes the picture due to lower
emissions during operation (after 6 month)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

40Bus Electrification Research and Sector Coupling
FutureProf. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar GÖHLICH

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

E-Bus 2030+
Further developement e-FLIPS in Cooperation with RLIForecasting and Szenario analysis

Ramp-up scenario of the BVG

Depot charger
Flex charge
End point load
Flex charge
Flex charge
Route charger
Route charger

Vehicle development up to 2035 in the opportunity-focused scenario

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

43Project goals▪

Electrification of complete bus fleet until 2030▪

Deepening the knowledge of how methodical, simulation-based design processes canaccompany, support and simplify the electrification of bus networks▪

ecological and economic potentials of fleet electrification▪

combination and improvement of various software solutions from TU Berlin with
software from our partner RLI → open source platform

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

44Open Source Simulation Platform

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

45E-Bus2030+ open-source platform▪ Assess and optimize the behavior ofscheduled electric transportation solutions▪ Scheduled is what sets eFLIPS apartfrom agent-based systems such as
MATSIM▪ Assess▪ What happens? (vehicle utilization,
charging power…)▪ What impact does it have? (Total Costof Ownership + Ecological Assessment)▪ Optimize▪ Smart Parking, Vehicle Dispatch:
Heuristically During Simulation▪ Depot Assignment, Smart Charging:
Pre/Postprocessing▪ Terminus Charging Placement, Cost
Minimization: Iterative Optimization

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin46

Scenario Analysis

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

47

Scenario analysis - Basics
Positive scenario

Trend scenario= Possibility spacetime

Present

Negative scenario
Close future

Far future

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin48

Scenario technology - Basics
Battery energy
density

Financial
contribution

Influential
factors

Battery
costs

Mobility
patterns

Climate-neutral,urban bustransportation

Laws/
prohibitions

Szenario I
Optimistic about the successof the technology underinvestigation

Autonomous
driving

Technical system

Systematically formalized
scenario technique

Szenario II

Highest probability ofoccurrence

Charging rate
Szenario III

Urbanization

Pessimistic about the successof the technology underinvestigation

Resources
Availability…Further option: Analysis of different
time horizons
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

49Trend Szenario – successful Decarbonization▪

Broad political support▪

Modal split is developing as expected, slight underestimation of demand▪

Sufficient resources and power supply available, but possibly with increased

price and/or delivery delays▪

Completion of all depots. Due to prolonged approval procedures, not all end
stops could be realized yet.

▪

Optimization of space utilization cannot be realized due to lack of automation▪

The increased personnel demand (e.g. due to delays in the construction ofterminal stops) are compensated by an overall digital system▪

Because of the successful implementation, employees have a positive attitude
towards the technology

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin50Sector Coupling
Research Campus Mobility2Grid
www.mobility2grid.de51

Mobility2Grid▪ Public private partnership with 34 members
and 10 funded Partners▪ Main objectives:▪ Integration of commercial and private electricvehicles in decentralized energy grids▪ Reference district for synergetic collaborationof electric mobility, power and heat supply
grids

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

52

Smart Grid Infrastructure
Integration of loads andstorage capacities ofbuildings and electricvehiclesDigitization, modelling andoptimization of energy supply
regarding electricity, heat, andmobility

Cooling grid /Heating grid

Local
power gridExperimental testing of prototypes and field tests for technology and innovationtransfer in the living lab for energy and mobility transition
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

53

Grid and Vehicles: First Bi-Directional E-Bus Charging System

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

54

Grid and Vehicles: Smart Grid Depots

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

55

Electrification of disposal transport▪

Technology roadmapping for waste disposal traffic▪

Vehicle tests of different electric commercial vehicles▪

Creation of charging infrastructure concepts for depots

Abb.: Flächennutzung und Layout eines Betriebshofs der BSR

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

56

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin
Past, Present and Future

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dietmar GÖHLICH
Dr.-Ing. Tu-Anh FAY

www.tu.berlin/mpm/

BackupElectric City Bus Systems in Germany and China
Requirements, System Technology and Standardization
Prof. Dr. Dietmar Göhlich, Technische Universität Berlin
Tu-Anh Fay, M.Sc. , Technische Universität Berlin
Ludger Heide, M. Sc. , Technische Universität Berlin
Project Kickoff Meeting at Beijing Institute of Technology, 2018-09-12

EV-China

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

MorEH2

E-Bus
China

StarTest

NOVBATCONBaSS

EV-China

60

Partners

Technische Universität Berlin▪

Chair MPM
Methods of Product Development and Mechatronics▪

Chair SENSE
Sustainable Electric Networks and Sources of Energy

Partner

Beijing Institute of Technology▪ National Engineering Laboratory for Electric
Vehicles (NELEV)v

Partner▪ Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co., Ltd.

▪

MAN Truck & Bus AG▪

Siemens AG Corporate Technology▪

DIN (Subcontracted Work)▪

Global Energy Interconnection ResearchInstitute Europe
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin▪ GIZ Peking▪ State Grid Corporation of China

61

Chair of MPM: E-Bus-System Competency
Aquisition of Operational Data

Energetic System Design

Nebenverbrauch, Antriebsverbrauch und Umgebungstemp. je KW, 2016

2.5

35

Charging
station

30
2.0

+

25

Body Type

20

1.5

v
a
h

15
10

1.0

+/-

-5
0.0

Driving
ResistancePower Train

Cabin

HVAC

Power
Loss

+

Battery

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

+

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Antriebsverbrauch abzüglich Rekuperation [kWh/km]

Nebenverbrauch [kWh/km]

min. Umgebungstemp. [°C]max. Umgebungstemp. [°C]Heat/Cooling
DemandClimatePlanning and Economic Feasibility Analysis
State of Charge…

On timeWith delay

Results

Other Aux
Auxiliaries*Battery and Charging System

Life Cycle Assessment
3.5%

CO2-Emissionen durch Herstellung und 12 Jahre Betrieb der Flotte

2.4% 1.4%

2.0

8.3%

1.8

12.0%

E-Bus Anteil
ohne Batterie~ 2,2 t

48.4%

24.0%

kg CO2 äquivalent / km

2

Charging
Time

Drivetrain, Battery,
Charging System,
HVAC

and more-101Additional
Weight*-Driving Cycle0

Capacity
Loss

EnergyConsumption

No. of
Passenger5

0.5

Charging

EE-Anteil
30 %EE-Anteil46 %E-Bus / Strommix 2015

E-Bus / Strommix 2030

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.2
0.0
Dieselbus
Herstellung generischer Körper

Stähle / Eisenwerkstoffe

KupferKunststoffe (PVC z.B.)

Isolierharz

Aluminium

Herstellung antriebsstrangspezifischer Körper

E-Bus / Windkraft

Herstellung Batterie

Betrieb

Kunststoffe (PE z.B.)

Sonstige
User AcceptanceStudy

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

62

Objectives▪

Explore the technical, operational and regulatory demands for the deployment ofcommon electric bus system technologies in China and Germany.

▪

The study will focus especially on charging infrastructures, being subject to extremely
variable local conditions▪

Based on the evaluation, technologies will be identified where the adop-tion ofcommon standards appears technically and economically feasible.

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

63Work Packages
Analysis of State of the Art in Germany and China
Technologies
Markets
Standardization

Operation Plan
Operation Service
Comparison
Germany - China

Grid connection requirements
Charging infrastructure
Grid supporting
integration of fleets

Technical and economical feasibility analysis
Where and how good does which systemsolution work?
Which is an appropriate system solution or coponentin Germany and China?

Corporate Sino-German E-Bus-Standardization
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

64Simulation and design tool eFLIPS
Fleet simulation

Depot simulation

Arrival and departure times of the circulations, circulation length, vehicle types to be
used, arrival and destination capacity status of the vehicles

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

65Simulation and design tool eFLIPS
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

eFLIPS: Electric Fleet and Infrastructure Planning/Simulation
Charging strategies
Depot
charging

Opportunity charging
Final stop

Stop

Driving

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Possible applications

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements

Passenger
transport

Waste disposal
traffic

Delivery traffic

Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

References

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
66

Simulation and design tool eFLIPS
Typical situation when operating diesel circulations with e-buses:

Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Opportunity
charging

SoC

In timewith delay

Ladezustand%Design of the fast charging station→ limited byloadingtime

With cost-optimised location selection

STOP

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

durchLoading
Verspätungenreduzierte
ausgefallene
Ladezeiten
times reduced
orodercanceled
due to delays

Design of the depot charging infrastructure

Circulation length

Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

STOP

Depot
charging→ limited by
reach

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

References

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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67

Analysis of existing vehicle rotations
Analysis of existing vehicle routes

Example: Simulation of 186 (diesel) rotations on 16 lines

To test the electrification capability

on timedelayed

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station

Number of rotations

Opportunity
charging

With cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes

on timeParking, service, charging and disposition

delayedDesign of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations

Depot
charging

Delays must be
taken into
account foropportunity
loading!

For best operating stability

Determination of requirements

OK

Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

critical

impossible

Source: D. Jefferies, D. Göhlich: Integrated TCO Assessment of Bus Network Electrification Considering Rescheduling and Delays. The 31st International
Electric Vehicle Symposium & Exhibition & International Electric Vehicle Conference (EVS31), Kobe, Japan, 2018

References

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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68

E-bus circulation planning
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection▪

Automated planning of e-bus routes▪

Opportunity and depot charging▪

Line-only and line-mixed circulation possible▪

Already used for subnetwork with over 4500 passenger
journeys/day

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations▪

Timetables▪

Delay data▪

Geokoordinaten derEndhaltestellen▪

Geocoordinates ofthe final stops▪

Vehicle parameters

For best operating stability

Determination of requirements

Circulation planningalgorithm

Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Circulation
schedules: withconsideration of
charging times andvehicle range

References

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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69

E-bus circulation planning
Example: Circulation planning for individual line
Depot charging

Opportunity
charging

𝜂circulation = 96,5%

Time

Passenger trips

Empty trips
𝜂circulation = 94,7%
Time

Circulation ID

Circulation ID

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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70

Simulation von Betriebsprozessen

Video unter: https://youtu.be/uKAchKjToaUBus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Seite
71

Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Video: https://youtu.be/uKAchKjToaUBus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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72

Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

Genetic algorithm for determining the TCO-optimal charging
locations

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure

Genetic
algorithm

Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Circulation planning
Simulation
TCO calculation

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

TCO optimized
charging networkand circulation
plans

Seite
73

✓

Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Changes to operational processes through electrification
Arrivalparking

charging

disposition

preconditioning

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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74

depatureSimulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging▪ Simulation and analysis of various charging infrastructure systems▪ Consideration of charging strategies and their different energy
requirements

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

SoC on arrival at the depot

Distribution of charging flexibility
Efficiency

Simulation of operating processes

Security

Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Depot charger Occasional charger

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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75

Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule

Use of charging flexibility to reduce energy and gridconnection costs

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Charging management: not controlled

Preconditioning

Charging management: smart
Limit total charging capacity

Spot market price

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

not controlled

smart

ChangePeak load
EnergykWh/day

Energy supply€/day

Grid fee€/day

Daily usage periodh/day

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

E-Bus vehicle schedule▪

Application of intelligent parking and scheduling strategies for efficient use of resources▪

Improvement of layout and processes to reduce and avoid traffic jams

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Utilization of parking spaces
Number of buses in traffic jam area

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations

Traffic jam distribution per bus

For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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77

Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability▪

Determination of the space-optimized parking arrangement for
maximum operational stability▪

Possible parking arrangements:

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure▪

Single rows▪

Block formation▪

Inclined position in single rows▪

Inclined position in double rows

Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

vehicle availability

For best operating stability

Parking space capacity c
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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Simulation of operating processes
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability

Simulation of all vehicles and depots; example of a line:

E-Bus vehicle schedule

For Depot and opportunity charging

Opportunity
charging

Design of the fast charging station
With cost-optimised location selection

Depot
charging

Circulation ID

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Vehicle needs : 11
Vehicle on line

Vehicle in depot
Vehicle needs : 13

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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79

Determination of requirements (overall system simulation)
Analysis of existing vehicle routes
To test the electrification capability▪

Determination of:▪

Vehicle requirements

For Depot and opportunity charging▪

Charging infrastructure requirements

Design of the fast charging station▪

Staff requirements▪

Energy and media requirements

E-Bus vehicle scheduleWith cost-optimised location selection

Simulation of operating processes
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Design of the depot charging infrastructure
Parking, service, charging and disposition

Optimization of layout and parking regulations
For best operating stability

Determination of requirements
Vehicles, infrastructure, staff, energy

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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80

TCO-Evaluation
Analysis of existingvehicle routes▪ Circulation plans

E-Bus vehicle schedule▪ Delay data

Design of the fast
charging station▪ Position/number ofcharging stations▪ Vehicle parameters

Cost parameters
Annual temperature curve
Annual simulation+ TCO model

Simulation ofoperating processes
Design of the depot
charging infrastructure

Optimization of layout andparking regulations

Example result for aroute network:

Vehicle requirements

Grid connection andconstruction costs notincluded in the depot
VehicleBattery
Fast charging infrastructure

Results for other lines orentire networks may vary!

Depot charging infrastructure
Power
Vehicle maintenance
Infrastructure maintenance
Staff

Determination ofrequirements
TCO (Total Cost of
Ownership)
LCA (Life Cycle
Assessment)
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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81

TCO-Evaluation
Analysis of existingvehicle routes
E-Bus vehicle schedule

Design of the fast
charging station▪ Circulation plans

LCA-Parameter▪ Delay data
▪ Position/number ofcharging stations▪ Vehicle parameters

Annual temperature curve
Annualsimulation +LCA model

Simulation ofoperating processes
Design of the depot
charging infrastructure

Production

Optimization of layout andparking regulations

Utilization phase

Determination ofrequirements
TCO (Total Cost of
Ownership)

End of LifeGHG emissions,eutrophication,
acidificationand more

LCA module is still underdevelopment (?!)

LCA (Life Cycle
Assessment)
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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82

LCA

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

83Technical Parameters E-Metrobus
Solaris Urbino 18 electric

Solaris Urbino 18

Common basic body (body, chassis, interior, etc.)
Body

FeaturesDrive-specific components such as electric

Drive-specific components such as diesel

motor and traction battery

engine and transmission

Electricity Consumption154 kWh/100 km,

Diesel consumption 56 l/100 km

Opportunity + Depot Charging
Inner city tour (Zoologischer Garten – Michelangelostraße)

Trip length: 12 km
Operatingparameters

Distance per day and per bus: 190 km
Life time: ø12 years
Life time mileage: 832 200 km
Average speed: 14,8 km/h

Bus fleet: 14 Busses no additional demand of electric buses compared to diesel buses

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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85

Product System
Diesel drive

Bus Body

Electric Drive

Production Diesel Bus

Diesel
Bio diesel

Replacement Parts

Battery

Production Electric Bus

DieselConsumption

Electricity
Consumption

Operation

Operation

Life Cycle Diesel Bus

Bus Body

Electricity from Grid

Replacement Parts(including battery)Life Cycle Electric Bus
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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86

Results Climate Change

GHG emissions of diesel bus life cycle:
20 168 t CO2äq

GHG emissions of electric bus life cycle:
10 384 t CO2äq

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Page
87

Sensitivity Analyses
Life cycle GWP diesel and electric bus per km
Basismodell
Basic model(SUD)

diesel1731

S:
S:66years
Jahre (SUD)

1789

S:Biodiesel
Biodiesel(SUD)
S:

723
891

S:
S: 18
18 Jahre
years (SUE)869

electric

Basic model (SUE)
Basismodell

S:66years
Jahre (SUE)S:

959

6 green (SUE)
S:S:Ökostrom
electricity
S: Charging (SUE)
S: Ladeeffizienz
efficiency
S: Klimatisierung(SUE)
S: Airconditioning

280
976
1103
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

g CO2äq/vkm

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

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88

Szenarienentwicklung

Scenario technology - Basics
Phase 1

Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4Phase 5

Scenario field
determination

Key factor
identification

Key factor analysis

Scenario
generation

Scenario transfer

Determination of theexamination space

Influence analysis

Consistency analysis

Scenarios

Strategic planning

optimistic
NeutralPessimistic

What opportunities,risks and general
options for action
arise from thescenarios?

•

Determining theinfluencing factors

•

Time

•

Content•

Rating

•

areal

•

Identification of
key factors

Definition of the
topic

Key factors

2. Expert workshop•

Creating future
projections•

Evaluation of theconsistency of the
projections

Consistentexpression bundles•••(exampels)

Szenarios

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Recommendations
for action90

Results 1. Workshop

Delimitation of the scenarios for e-bus 2030+
Basic study

Key questions

Extension study

How can zero-emission bus
transportation be achieved in
Berlin by 2030?

Optimization
potential

Costs

Environmental impact(beyond CO2)2035

Temporal

BEVContent wise

Location

2045

2030

Charging
infrastructure

VehiclesExample depot+ Line network

Depot

LIS
Locations

Financing

Staff

Power
grid

Disruptive technical &non-technicaldevelopments

Berlin ABC

2050

Electricity market/ system service(offer flexibility?)
Alternative
energy storage(H2 , SynFuel)

Mobility services(bus, tram, train),modal shift

Metropolitan
region (VBB)

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

92Scenarios▪

Trend Positiv▪

→ Grahle

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

93Phasen der Szenariotechnik
Phase 1 - Szenariofeldbestimmung▪

Definition vom Bereich der Untersuchung (Thema, Problem, Grenzen, etc.)

Phase 2 – Identifikation der Schlüsselfaktoren▪

Beschreibung und Bewertung der zentralen Einflussfaktoren, sowie deren Wirkung
aufeinander

Phase 3 – Analyse der Schlüsselfaktoren▪

Bildung von Schlüsselfaktorausprägungen und Konsistenzanalyse

Phase 4 – Szenariogenerierung▪

Szenariongenerierung aus den konsistenten Faktoren und Auswahl von maximal 4-5
Szenarien

Phase 5 – Szenariotransfer▪

Auswertung und Verwendung der erstellten Szenarien
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

94Phase 1 - Szenariofeldbestimung
Basisuntersuchung▪ Untersuchung bis 2030
▪ Begrenzt auf Berlin▪ Batterieelektrischer Antrieb gesetzt
Erweiterungsuntersuchung▪

Untersuchung bis 2040▪

Berlin und Brandenburg▪

Wasserstoffantrieb als Option

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin95Phase 2 – Identifikation der Schlüsselfaktoren
Technik
Priorität (vonniedrig bis hoch
1-3)
Einflussfaktor

Nummer
1

3 Verfügbarer Stromanschluss2

1 spez. Energiedichte

3

2

1 Klima

C-Rate2

1 Mikroklima

3

2 Flächendruck im öff. Raum

4

2 Strommarktdesign

5

Energieverbrauch des3 Fahrzeugs
Ladestrategie
2
E-Fahrzeug Reichweite

7

8

Anzahl1

1

6Priorität (vonniedrig bis
hoch 1-3)
Einflussfaktor

Batteriekosten

452Digitalisierung (bspw.
Lademanagement oder
3 flexible Umlaufplanung)

Politik & Gesellschaft

Umwelt6

Priorität (vonniedrig bis
hoch 1-3)
Einflussfaktor

Anzahl2 Ressourcenverfügbarkeit
Platzverfügbarkeit am
Betriebshof und
3 Endhaltestelle

1

3 Personalverfügbarkeit

2
3

2 Subventionen/ Förderung
Stadtplanung/2 Stadtmöbel Vorgaben

4

3

5

gesellschaftliche
1 Akzeptanz

6

1

7

Attraktivitätssteigerungen (Bspw. City
1 Maut oder 9€ Ticket)

8

Gesetze und
3 Verordnungen

9

3

10

Akzeptanz bei
2 Mitarbeiter*innen

11

2

Mobilitätsverhalten

CO2 Ausstoß Well to Wheel
9

2

10

Automatisiertes Fahren auf
2 dem Betriebshof

11

2

12

Marktverfügbarkeitdes
2 Fahrzeugs

13

Baugeschwindigkeit der
3 Infrastruktur

14

1 Fahrzeugs

Fahrzeugkosten

Herstellungsemissionen des

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

Genehmigungs-prozesse

Bezirks-regierung

Landesregierung96

Phase 2 – Identifikation der Schlüsselfaktoren
Final ausgewählte Faktoren
Technisch

UmweltPolitik und Gesellschaft

Verfügbarer Stromanshluss

Flächendruck im öffentlichen
Raum

Personalverfügbarkeit

Energieverbrauch im Fahrzeug

Platzverfügbarkeit Betriebshof
und Endhaltestelle

Genehmigungsprozesse

Fahrzeug Reichweite

Ressourcen-verfügbarkeit

Akzeptanz bei Mitarbeiter*innen

Digitalisierung

Landesregierung

Baugeschwindigkeit Infrastruktur

Subventionen/ Förderungen

Autonomes Fahren auf dem
Betriebshof

Bezirksregierung

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin97Phase 3 – Analyse der Faktoren
Workshop 1: Konsistenzanalyse
Beeinflussendes
Merkmal Spalte
Verfügbarer
Beeinflusstes Merkmal Stromanschluss
Zeile

Energieverbrauch desFahrzeugs

Digitalisierung (bspw.
Lademanagement oder
flexible Umlaufplanung)E-Fahrzeug Reichweite

Verfügbarer
Stromanschluss

3

Energieverbrauch desFahrzeugs

2

E-Fahrzeug Reichweite

33

Digitalisierung (bspw.
Lademanagement oder
flexible Umlaufplanung)3

3Baugeschwindigkeit derInfrastruktur

3

Flächendruck im öff.
Raum

1

3

3

Platzverfügbarkeit am
Betriebshof undEndhaltestelle

1

2

3

Platzverfügbarkeit am
Betriebshof undEndhaltestelle

Baugeschwindigkeit der Flächendruck im öff.
Infrastruktur
Raum

3

Ressourcenverfügbarkeit Personalverfügbarkeit

3

1

3

2

Genehmigungsprozesse

1

Akzeptanz bei
Mitarbeiter*innen

Landesregierung3

Automatisiertes Fahren
auf dem Betriebshof

Subventionen/ Förderung Bezirksregierung22Strommarktdesign

3

3

2

3

3

3

1

2

1

3

3

2

3

3

2

3

3

1

3

1

1

2

3

3

3

1

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

Ressourcenverfügbarkeit

Personalverfügbarkeit

2

3

Genehmigungs-prozesse

3

Akzeptanz bei
Mitarbeiter*innen

1

2

2

1

1

2

3

2

1

2

1

2

1

Bezirksregierung

Automatisiertes Fahren
auf dem Betriebshof

2

2

1

1

2

3

3

Strommarktdesign

2

3

1

1

2

1

3

1

2

2

3

1

3

2

3

2

Landesregierung

Subventionen/ Förderung

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

1

2

2

2

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin298Phase 3 – Analyse der Faktoren
Getriebene Faktoren

Treibende Faktoren

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin99Phase 3 – Analyse der Faktoren
Baugeschwindigkeit Infrastruktur

Getriebene Faktoren
Subventionen/
FörderungenLandesregierung

Fahrzeugreichweite

Treibende Faktoren

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin100Phase 3 – Projektionen der Faktoren

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

101Phase 3 - ErweiterungsuntersuchungWeiteres Vorgehen▪
▪

▪

Erweiterung der Analyse um
Wasserstofffaktoren
Erweiterung der Untersuchung auf
2040 und Auswertung neuer
SchlüsselfaktorausprägungenEliminierung von Faktoren mit
geringer Beeinflussung odereindeutig absehbarer Entwicklung

2040
FaktorFall A(Pessimistisch)

Trend

Fall B(Optimistisch)

Energiespeicher

Die Wahl fällt auf Wasserstoff als
Energiespeicher. Der Antrieb ist dementsprechend
entweder eine E-Antrieb mit Strom aus einer
Brennstoffzelle oder Wasserstoffmotor.

/

Die Wahl fällt auf Batterien als
Energiespeicher. Der Antrieb ist
dementsprechend ein E-Antrieb.

Verfügbarer Stromanschluss

Zusätzliche Bedarfe können nicht abgedeckt
werden. Bestimmte Anschlussleistungenkönnen nicht garantiert werden.

Bereitstellungszeitpunkte verzögern sich.
Bedarfe können bedient werden.

Kurze Bereitstellungsdauern fürzusätzliche Bedarfe.

Digitalisierung (bspw.
Lademanagement oder flexible
Umlaufplanung)

Einzelne Systeme sind noch nicht digitalisiert.

/

Integration in ein digitales
Gesamtsystem gelungen.

Baugeschwindigkeit der Infrastruktur

Geringe Baugeschwindigkeit/

Hohe Baugeschwindigkeit

Flächendruck im öffentlichen Raum

Hoher Flächendruck.

/

Platzverfügbarkeit auf den
Betriebshöfen und Endhaltestellen

Nicht ausreichend Platz.

Ausreichend Platz. Die Fläche pro Bus ist
identisch zum aktuellen Stand (2023).

Ressourcenverfügbarkeit

Starke Ressourcenknappheit/

Hohe Ressourcenverfügbarkeit

Personalverfügbarkeit

Die Personalengpässe verschärfen sich.

Ausreichende Personalverfügbarkeit.

Übermäßige Personalverfügarkeit

Genehmigungsprozesse

Genehmigungen dauern länger als 2023.

Unverändert zu 2023.

Genehmigungen werden schneller als in
2023 erteilt.

Akzeptanz bei Mitarbeiter*Innen

Die Mitarbeiter*Innen lehnen die Automatisierung
ab. Die Antriebstechnologie ist zur Normalität
geworden.

/

Die Mitarbeiter*Innen akzeptieren
Automatisierung und lehnen mittlerweilealte Technologien ab.

Die Entwicklung setzt sich wie bisher fort.

Die Annahmen und Hochrechnungen überden Bedarf an Bussen und desBusverkehrs treten ein.

Mobilitätsverhalten

Der Modal Split ändert sich stark.

Geringer Flächendruck

Ausreichend Platz. Die Fläche pro Bus ist
geringer zum aktuellen Stand (2023).

Landesregierung

Die BVG wird nicht mehr vom Land Berlin
unterstützt..

/

Die BVG wird weiterhin vom Land Berlin
unterstützt.

Subventionen und Förderungen

Die Fördermittel entfallen oder werden stark
gekürzt/

Alle Busse und Infrastrukturmaßnahmen
werden (bis 2040) gefördert.

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin102

Phase 3 – Konsistenzanalyse

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

103Phase 4 - Szenario Generierung und Auswahl▪ Generierung von 150 Szenarien▪ Auswahl basierend auf Konsistenzfaktor und Unterschiedlichkeit▪ KD – Konsistenzdurchschnitt sollte immer >1 sein
▪ Je größer der Konsistenzdurchschnitt desto stimmiger ist das Szenario▪ Die Unterschiedlichkeit beschreibt wie viele unterschiedliche Projektoren in den zwei verglichenen
Szenarien existieren

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

104Positives Szenario – Elektrifizierung als Chance zur Optimierung desBetriebs▪

Breite politische Unterstützung▪

Modal Split verhält sich wie angenommen▪

Hohe Ressourcenverfügbarkeit▪

Automatisiertes Fahren und ein digitales Gesamtsystem können implementiert
werden und führen zur Optimierung der Flächennutzung und der Personallage▪

Durch Förderungen, sowie hoher Ressourcenverfügbarkeit stehen die Flächen
für Betriebshof und Depots zur Verfügung und diese werden schnell errichtet▪

Genehmigungsprozesse für Bauvorhaben können durch die Unterstützung auf
Bezirksebene vereinheitlicht und verkürzt werden▪

Durch die positive Entwicklung des Gesamtprojekts, sowie die Entlastung derBelegschaft, sind die Mitarbeiter*innen dem Projekt gegenüber positiv
eingestellt
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

105Trend Szenario – gelungene Dekarbonisierung▪

Breite politische Unterstützung▪

Modal Split entwickelt sich erwartbar, leichte Unterschätzung des Bedarfs▪

Ressourcen und Stromanschuss stehen ausreichend zur Verfügung, aber

eventuell mit erhöhtem Preis und/oder Lieferverzögerungen▪

Fertigstellung aller Depots. Durch verlängerte Genehmigungsverfahren konnten
noch nicht alle Endhaltestellen realisiert werden.

▪

Optimierungen der Flächennutzung können durch ausbleibende
Automatisierungen nicht realisiert werden▪

Der erhöhte Personalbedarf (u.A. durch Verzögerung beim Bau derEndhaltestellen) wird durch ein digitales Gesamtsystem aufgefangen▪

Durch Erfolgreiche Umsetzung stehen die Mitarbeiter*innen der Technologie
positiv gegenüber
Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

106Negatives Szenario – Große Hürden für die Elektrifizierung▪

Unterschätzung des Anteils des Busverkehrs am Modal Split. Durch City Maut
und/oder kostenlosem ÖPNV entsteht ein großer Mehrbedarf an Bussen!

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Ressourcenknappheit durch geopolitische Entwicklungen und allgemeiner hohen
Nachfrage an E-Bussen▪

Einige Bezirksregierungen in Berlin, vor Allem der Randbezirke, opponieren gegendas Vorgehen und behindern die Realisierung von Bauprojekten▪

Durch die fehlende Infrastruktur und den hohen Mehraufwand, kommt es zu
Personalengpässen

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Die Mehraufwände der Busfahrer*Innen führen zu Verlust der Akzeptanz▪

Die Landesregierung sieht sich gezwungen das Vorhaben zu ändern und nicht weiterzu unterstützen

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

107Alternativ Szenario – gelungene Umstellung auf Wasserstoff
Mobilität▪

Geringer Wasserstoffpreis durch Energiewende in Deutschland▪

Annahmen über Anteil am Modal Split treten ein▪

Die Landeregierung ändert das Vorhaben und setzt von nun an auf Wasserstoff Busse▪

Ein Großteil der Bezirksregierungen unterstützt das Vorhaben.

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Integration in ein digitales Gesamtsystem gelungen, da Komplexität derReichweitenabweichungen entfällt▪

Autonomes Fahren auf dem Betriebshof kann implementiert werden und führt zu mehr
Platz auf den Betriebshöfen▪

Eine geringe/mittlere Baugeschwindigkeit ist ausreichend, da die Anpassungen an den
Betriebshöfen geringer sind und keine Ladestationen an den Endhaltestellen
notwendig sind, es werden weniger Flächen benötigt

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Ressourcen sind nicht kritisch

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin

108Phase 5 - Szenariotransfer
Nächste Schritte:▪

Entwicklung technischer Strategien für die Szenarien▪

Simulation dieser Strategien zur Ermittlung relevanter Parameter (Flottengröße,
technische Spezifikationen der Fahrzeuge, Kosten, Umweltauswirkungen)▪

Auswahl und Simulation weiterer „mittlerer“ Szenarien um
Handlungsempfehlungen für das Eintreten negativer Trends zu entwickeln

Bus Electrification Research and Practice in Berlin109