THE THIRDTOHOKU - UEA
RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM

Registration

21 JANUARY 2021

A sustainable research partnership can only thrive in an environment of intellectual curiosity,common interests, and open discussion. In these challenging times, this young partnership between theGraduate School of Economics and Management at Tohoku University and the School of Economics at UEA isshowing potential and demonstrating resilience in finding new ways to bring researchers together and continue
the dialogue we started three years ago here in Norwich. I feel honoured to support the research collaboration
between our two Schools.

Dr Emiliya Lazarova - Head of School (UEA)

To access the workshop, follow the link below:
https://zoom.us/j/98602352144?pwd=eW93dkZWeTlZenE3YnMwdUkzYXB2dz09
meeting ID: 986 0235 2144
passcode: 6CRqWQ

THURSDAY 21 JANUARYON ZOOM
UK TimeJP TimeSpeaker

Title

08:25-08:30

17:25-17:30

Emiliya LAZAROVA & Yasumasa
MATSUDAWELCOME

08:30-09:05

17:30-18:05

Dai ZUSAI

Gains in Evolutionary Dynamics: A
Unifying and Intuitive Approach to Linking
Static and Dynamic Stability

09:05-09:35

18:05-18:35

Ayobami ILORIFiscal Policy Shocks and International
Spill-overs

09:35-10:10

18:35-19:10

Takuya ISHIHARAEvidence Aggregation for Treatment
Choice10:10-10:20

19:10-19:20

BREAK

10:20-10:50

19:20-19:50
Yuan GAO

Evaluating Innovation Disruptiveness by
Measuring Destructiveness and New
Knowledge Involvement: A Network
Approach to Patent Data Analysis

10:50-11:10

19:50-20:10

Anqi LI

Spatial Analysis of Happiness in Japan

11:10-11:40

20:10-20:40

Binwei CHEN

Margin Trading, Short Selling, andMarket Quality: Evidence from Chinese
ETFs

11:40-11:45

20:40-20:45

Corrado DI MARIA & Yasumasa
MATSUDA

CLOSE

PRESENTATION 1 | 08:30-09:05 | 17:30-18:05
GAINS IN EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS: A UNIFYING AND INTUITIVEAPPROACH TO LINKING STATIC AND DYNAMIC STABILITY
Dai ZUSAI - TOHOKU
Dai is an Associate Professor at Tohoku University, where his main research interests are Equilibrium Stability andEvolutionary Game Theory. An active scholar in the area of evolutionary game theory, his research is distinguishedby taking a variety of structural components in strategic decision making and social interactions into the generalframework of evolutionary dynamics. Prior to joining Tohoku University, Dai was Associate Professor of Economics
at Temple University, Philadelphia, USA.
Abstract:
Static stability in an economic model means negative incentives for deviation from equilibrium strategies, which
we expect to assure a return to equilibrium, i.e., dynamic stability, as long as agents respond to incentives. There
have been many attempts to prove this link, especially in evolutionary game theory, yielding both negative andpositive results. This paper offers a universal and intuitive approach to this link. We prove that static stability
assures dynamic stability if agents’ decisions of switching strategies are rationalizable by revealing costs andconstraints behind distortions from exact optimization. This idea guides us to track the remaining expected payoff
gains from switches, after deducting the costs and to be maximized subject to the constraints as a Lyapunov
function. It also explains reasons behind the known negative results. While our analysis here is confined to myopic
evolutionary dynamics in population games, our approach is applicable to more complex situations.

PRESENTATION 2 | 09:05-09:35 | 18:05-18:35
FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS AND INTERNATIONAL SPILL-OVERS
Aayobami ILORI - UEA (Co-authors: Juan Paez-Farrell; Christoph Thoenissen)
Aayobami is a Lecturer in Economics at the School of Economics, UEA. His research interests span the areas ofDynamic Macroeconomics, International Macroeconomics, and Applied Macroeconometrics. In his research, heworks with theoretical and empirical models to study domestic and international business cycle fluctuations
and the transmission and propagation of macroeconomic shocks. Aayobami’s professional experience alsoincludes working as a research economist intern with the UK government's Department for Communities andLocal Government, and as an audit associate with Deloitte Nigeria.
Abstract:
The domestic and international transmission mechanism of fiscal policy shocks are analysed in large developed
economies. Using a Bayesian VAR approach, we find that fiscal expansions are associated with increases inoutput, private consumption and, in many cases, with an increase in private investment. The terms of trade,which affect the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks, are found to depreciate in response to a fiscalexpansion, thus transferring some of the increased domestic purchasing power abroad. A US government
spending shock is expansionary for all non-US G7 members. A German government spending shock isexpansionary for most, but not all European economies, both within and outside the Euro Area. The dynamics
of the BVAR are rationalise using a dynamics stochastic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous
households and firms face borrowing constraints.

PRESENTATION 3 | 09:35-10:10 | 18:35-19:10
EVIDENCE AGGREGATION FOR TREATMENT CHOICE
Takuya ISHIHARA - TOHOKU (Co-author: Toru Kitagawa)Takuya is a postdoctoral researcher in Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) with a joint positionof visiting fellow at the Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University. Takuya’s main research themes are:theories of econometrics and applications to social issues by microdata.
Abstract:
Consider a planner who has to decide whether or not to introduce a new policy to a certain
population of interest, but has limited knowledge on the policy’s causal impact due to the lack of credible
evidence for this population. She instead has access to the publicized results of the intervention studies
performed for similar policies on different populations. How should she make use of and aggregate these
existing evidence to make her policy decision? Building on the perspective of ”patient-centered meta-analysis”
proposed by Manski (2020 ”Towards Credible Patient-Centered Meta-Analysis”, Epidemiology), we formulate
the planner’s problem as a statistical decision problem with a social welfare objective of the population, andsolve for an optimal aggregation rule under the minimax-regret criterion. We investigate its analyticalproperties and welfare performance, and compare with the plug-in based decision rules based on metaregression or stylized mean-squared-error optimal prediction. We apply our rule to decide adoption of an active
labor market policy based on the 14 randomized control trial studies performed in 8 different countries.

BREAK (10 minutes)

PRESENTATION 4 | 10:20-10:50 | 19:20-19:50
EVALUATING INNOVATION DESTRUCTIVENESS AND NEW KNOWLEDGE
INVOLVEMENT: A NETWORK APPROACH TO PATENT DATA ANALYSIS
Yuan GAO – UEA (Co-author: Emiliya Lazarova)
Yuan is a postdoctoral researcher at UEA. She specializes in applied networks science and data analysis in socioeconomics. With an inter-disciplinary background, her main research interests include technology innovation,knowledge diffusion and mobility, online gig economy and e-commerce.
Abstract:
Researchers have long been studying technological innovation due to its significance in driving economic growth.
Designed to protect the deemed values of inventions, patents and their information have been widely used insuch studies to generate statistics for innovation evaluation. However, many of the commonly used patentmeasures are based on simply counting invention quantities. Such conventional metrics are incapable to provide
in-depth understanding of the quality of innovation, especially the degree of novelty. In this paper we build on
the literature of creative destruction to propose two new measures of disruptive technologies: thedestructiveness index that captures technological-cohort recombination, and the involvement of new knowledge
origins. These are based on a network approach that we develop to identify clusters of patent technologicalclassifications and measure the changes of such clusters over time. We present our work at several layers, focusing
on the Pharmaceuticals sector and the Computer Technology sector: With the analysis at network level, wedescribe a conjectured notion of technological evolution cycles consisting of the exploration stage and theintensification stage. At patent level, we include conventional patent quality indicators and national R&Dinvestment and resource data. The results show that destructiveness contributes to both the volume and qualityof innovation outcomes. New knowledge is negatively related to patent volume but positively to quality. Our
multivariate regressions also demonstrate sectorial differences in how disruptiveness is related to innovation.

PRESENTATION 5 | 10:50-11:10 | 19:50-20:10
SPACIAL ANALYSIS OF HAPPINESS IN JAPANAnqi LI -TOHOKU (Co-authours: Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda)
Anqi started her PhD in Tohoku University in October, 2019 after completing a master program at the Graduate
School of Economics, Tohoku University. Her current research interests are focused on theories and applicationsof Data Science in Economics.
Abstract:
We will report the Japanese features of subjective well-beings by a survey of 22,539 respondents living in 46
prefectures in Japan. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to the dataset to examine the effects ofindividual characteristics such as age, salary, occupation jointly with the regional heteroscedasticities. We
introduce new findings on individual characteristics evaluated as unique features of Japanese, such as thepartial effects of housewives, education level and health conditions on happiness. We report the regional
heteroscedasticity of happiness identified after controlling the individual characteristics, from which it is foundthat the coastal areas damaged by the Tsunami and nuclear plant accidents in 2011 are the unhappiest regionsin Japan.

PRESENTATION 6 | 11:10-11:40 | 20:10-20:40
MARGIN TRADING, SHORT SELLING, AND MARKET QUALITY:
EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE ETFs
CHEN, Binwei - UEA
Binwei started her PhD in the University of East Anglia in January 2019. Prior to this she obtained an MSc in
International Financial Management from the University of Surrey. Her current research interests are focusedon Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and relevant policy evaluation.
Abstract:
This chapter applies extended synthetic control methods and two diagnostic tests to examine the effectof margin trading and short selling on Chinese ETFs. Although trading volume and turnover for treated
ETFs increased in the post-treatment period, only the treatment effect for trading volume passed theplacebo test. The volatility and return of treated ETFs showed unstable and inconsistent treatment
effects, and neither of them passed diagnostic tests. In short, the introduction of margin trading andshort selling improved ETF liquidity, but had no significant effect on volatility and returns in the ChineseETF market.