IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 12017 Volume 24 Issue 1

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE

President’s Report to Colleagues

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2 Calendar At-A-Glance

Dear IFTA Colleagues,

3 Congratulations New CFTes!

Up until 2008–2009, both developed,
emerging markets and many commodities
were, more or less, moving in similar directions. Since then, the markets and otherpreviously correlated asset classes havelargely decoupled from each other. To atechnical analyst this created new difficulties and challenges and further emphasized
the importance of being able to identify the“potential winners” each year. In our field oftechnical analysis, one of the most valuable
and essential tools that would aid in identifying those potential winners is the Relative
Strength (Performance) Analysis (RSA or
RPA). As the name implies, RPA allows us tocompare various market and asset classes
together to be able to choose and rank thepotentially better or best performers.

3 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
4 Congratulations New MFTAs
4 Benefit of Membership:Complimentary Monthly Webinars
Education Lounge

6 No Linear Uptrend for Oil
15 Tactical Report
20 IFTA Journal Call for Submissions
21 IFTA Member Societies
21 IFTA Update Schedule
21 Board of Directors
22 IFTA 2017 Sponsorship Brochure

Next Issue: June 2017
Submission Deadlines
Education articles: May 15—
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: June 1—
send submissions to admin@ifta.org
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

As part of IFTA’s CFTe certification syllabus,
we emphasize the importance of this technical analysis tool and recognize its value as a
critical aspect in the experience and careerdevelopment of a professional technical analyst into a professional technical strategist.
IFTA affairs: In addition to being offered in
English, German, Spanish, and Arabic, IFTA
is glad to announce that CFTe I will also beoffered in Chinese (Mandarin) very soon.

Following his role delivering a successful IFTA conference in Sydney 2016, ourIFTA colleague Alec Jankawski has now
assumed the role of IFTA’s membershipdirector. Meanwhile, our new IFTA colleague
Francesco Caruso will be assuming the roleof IFTA conference director for 2017. I wish
them, as well as all our IFTA directors, thebest of luck.
IFTA latest webinars: After a short breakin our webinar program, IFTA director Tom
Hicks is now in charge of the IFTA webinar
program. The first webinar was launched on
January 26 and was titled “Trend Trading—A
More Consistent Approach for the Private
Trader,” presented by keynote speaker
Zaheer Anwari. The second webinar, titled“Maximize Your Trading Success Using
the Elliott Wave Model,” was launched on
February 23 and presented by keynote
speaker Michael Madden of EWI.
If you did not get a chance to attend orview these webinars, be sure not to missour future webinars in 2017. For more information on how to register, please visit our
website (www.IFTA.org).

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a
not-for-profit professional organization incorporated in
1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

2017 IFTA Conference Update: Our next
conference will be held in Milan, Italy, on
October 13–15, 2017, at the Excelsior Hotel
Gallia. The conference will be hosted bySocieta Italiana di Analisi Tecnica (SIAT).
Among many other important conference
aspects, the SIAT Conference Committee iscurrently preparing for the conference registration process, and the website showsa very interesting ensemble of keynote
speakers. I look forward to attending the30th Annual IFTA Conference in Milan!
Last, but not least I would like to thank all
member societies who shared updates andnews from your local societies. Sharing
information, knowledge and experience isand will always be, in spirit, the reason why
IFTA exists and continues to do so.
Hope to see you all this year in Milan at the30th Annual IFTA Conference!
Best regards,

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 2

Calendar At-A-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

Topic

STANZ
(New
Zealand)

Various

Epsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are free to

ATAA(Australia)

Various

Various

Varieswww.ataa.com.au/meetings

Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA andCSTA
Chapters(Canada)Various

Various

Varieswww.csta.org

Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the second

STA

VariesBritish Bankers Association • Pinners Hall 105 – Varies
108 Old Broad Street • London EC2N 1EX

Katie Abberton, info@sta-uk.org

March

TSAA-SF

Evan McCulloch, Senior Vice
President, Director of Equity
Research for Franklin Equity
Group

Golden Gate University,

16:00-17:00

http://www.tsaasf.org/

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors fee is $30.

plan social and educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry
professionals and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play avital role in their communities by connecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

April

May

24

How the Big Firms Make Their Investment Decisions

San Francisco, CA USA
Room 3214

11

STA Monthly Meeting: Volume at Price: Not all prices are equal!

STAPaul McLaren, Managing
British Bankers Association
Director, Enhance Your Options Pinners Hall
Pty Ltd
105 – 108 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1EX

18:00

https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

12

Presentation on the unique trading platform AgenaTrader

SAMT

Gilbert Kreuzthaler, CEOand chief developer of
AgenaTrader; Martin Goersch,full-time trader and asset
manager

Au Premier, Zurich HB

18:00

http://www.samt-org.ch/events/20/99/
SAMT-GAP-Joint-event.html

20

CFTe II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org http://www.ifta.org

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline, and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles (mid-June
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org Attn: Aurélia Gerber

31

IFTA Journal Call for Papers submissions deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

June

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

Oct2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

12

IFTA Annual General Meeting (AGM)

IFTA & SIAT Varies

Excelsior Hotel Gallia
Piazza Duca D’Aosta 9, Milan, Italy

16:00-17:30

admin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

13-15

IFTA 30th Annual Conference

IFTA & SIAT Varies

Excelsior Hotel Gallia
Piazza Duca D’Aosta 9, Milan, Italy

Variesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 paper
submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

19

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

20

Volume At Price

TASS

Paul McLaren, Managing
9 Raffles Place #30-02
Director, Enhance Your Options Republic Plasz Tower 1
Pty Ltd
Singapore

19:00-21:00

http://www.tass.org.sg/event-upcoming

Continued on page 3

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 3

Calendar continued
Nov

Dec

1

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles (midDecember release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (mid-December release) IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

1

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path, Session
1 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

3

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—deadline to register for
April examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 paper
submission deadline

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org
http://www.ifta.org

2018
Feb

Mar

Congratulations New CFTes!

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates

Ahmad Ariff Bin Abdul Wahab, MATA

Toshitake Nagatani, NTAA

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I

Hiroshi Aiuchi, NTAA

Shinji Okada, NTAA

Kazuomi Aoyama, NTAA

Noritaka Okamoto, NTAA

Akifumi Goto, NTAA

Mashitoh Binti Mohamad Radzi, MATA

Jeffrey John Kenneth Gray
Razila Binti Hamzah, MATA
Ayako Hayashi, NTAA
Ahmed Abdelhady Ibrahim
Tomoaki Ikegame, NTAA
Kentaro Inuyama, NTAA
Kazunori Kanda, NTAA

Nur Aimi Binti Razak, MATA
Rishi Sajwan

Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
DateRegistration deadline

20 Apr 201719 Oct 2017

Closed

1 Sep 2017

Yuta Sasaki, NTAA

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php

Brenda Sullivan, STA

Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Ken Takahashi, NTAA
Masashi Takimoto, NTAA

Yoshimichi Kato, NTAA

Kosuke Tanaka, NTAA

Takuya Kawabata, NTAA

Satoru Washioka, NTAA

Yuzo Kawamoto, NTAA

Tetsuya Yamada, NTAA

Yukinori Matsuda, NTAA

Shinichiro Yamada, NTAA

For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

Closed31 July 2017

Application/Outline Deadline

2 May 20172 Oct 2017

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 2017

15 Mar 2018

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/MFTA/IFTA Journal Style Guide

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 4

Congratulations New MFTAs
Konstantin Dimov, MFTA, CFTE

MFTA Research Paper Title:
K-Divergence
Konstantin Dimov has
been a technical analysis prac titioner fornearly a decade. He isa proponent of quantitatively testing trading
rules to confirm theirvalidity on a systematic
basis. In this manner,
he believes technicians are less likely to
be influenced by various cognitive biases,
such as self-attribution andoverconfidence.
I n h i s M F TA r e s e a r c h p a p e r“K-Divergence”, Konstantin presents atheory on one of the most conspicuous
price phenomena—gaps. It diverges fromtraditional theories that can be found in
the technical analysis literature by shifting the focus of analysis from the gap
itself to the range of prices preceding it.

Furthermore, he proposes an alternative
gap classification system that is strictly
based on the price movement prior to thegap occurring. In his work, he not only
systematically tests the trading strategies
originating from the K-divergence theory,
but also provides a concrete framework
about how technicians should apply thetheory when analyzing securities on an
individual basis.
Konstantin is a member of the CanadianSociety of Technical Analysts. In 2012, heobtained his bachelor’s degree in business administration, double specializing in
finance and economics, from the Schulich
School of Business in Toronto, Canada.
In the three years that followed, he completed the educational requirements for
the Chartered Market Technician (CMT)and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)
designations, while also becoming a
Certified Financial Technician. He is currently back at Schulich completing thefinal semester of his MBA.

Benefit of Membership:Complimentary Monthly Webinars

Tomoya Suzuki, Ph.D., MFTA

MFTA Research Paper Title: Consensus
Ratio and Two-Steps Selection to Detect
Profitable Stocks: Modern TechnicalAnalysis Using Machine Learning Approach
D r. Tomoya Suzuk i
received his B.S., M.S.,
and Ph.D. in physics from the Tok yo
University of Sciencein 2000, 2002, and2005, respectively.
Then, he joined Tokyo
Denki University as an assistant in 2005 toteach electric circuits. From 2006 to 2009,he was a lecturer at Doshisha University,
teaching computer languages and computer engineering. Since 2009, Dr. Suzuki
has been an associate professor and thena professor at Ibaraki University, teachingmathematics, statistics, and computerscience.

markets, and his research methods aretime series analysis, prediction, machinelearning, and data mining with computers.
In particular, his recent research involved
the integration of technical analysis, physics, and computer science. From thisviewpoint, his MFTA research paper hasreported that nonlinear prediction models based on neural networks have a highpotential for developing new technicalanalysis methods. Moreover, he also hasa great interest in evidence-based technical analysis and has been giving seminars
for Nippon Technical Analysts Association(NTAA) members on this topic.

His research interest is the physics ofcomplex systems, especially financial

23 February: Maximize FX Trading Success Using the Elliott Wave Model
Presenter: Michael Madden, CMT, CFTe, CEWA
26 January: Trend Trading – A More Consistent Approach for the Private Trader
Presenter: Zaheer Anwari

Click here to view the 2018 Sponsorship Brochure

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 6

Education Lounge

No Linear Uptrend for Oil
By Robert Balan and Jean-François Owczarczak, CFTe, MSTA
Crude oil’s range-bound price may not stay that way very long—expect prices totrade lower until mid-year
U.S. crude oil exports set a new two-week record, as reported by the Energy Department.
For the week ending February 10, it reported crude exports averaging 1.026 mb perday, and 1.211 mb per day for the week ending February 17—up nearly 200,000 barrels
a day from the week earlier and about 350,000 barrels above the four-week average.
Until recently, the U.S. was exporting about 500,000 barrels a day. We expect the trend
to continue for the rest of the year.
The U.S. export data is highly significant because the volume reported is very close to
the estimated cut made by OPEC members. Simply put, U.S. exports are replacing the
OPEC barrels that have been cut in the world market. That threatens to perpetuate theglobal oversupply that the major oil producers have been very anxious to reduce, as it
has been keeping oil prices low. Oil demand had been falling since August last year, ata time that the major producers were ramping up output ahead of the agreement talks
to cut output late last year. If OPEC cannot improve its 71% compliance (Reuters) with
its output ceiling (1.098 mbl/day cut vs. 1.539 mbl/d target), the global oil glut will persist.
Four OPEC members— Nigeria, Libya, Iran, and Indonesia—had refused to cut production and dropped out of OPEC on the day of the meeting. Five members—Venezuela(7%), Algeria (18%), Gabon (22%), UAE (24%), and Iraq (48%)—have not made serious
cuts. Only two members have made cuts of 100% (or more): Saudi Arabia (153%) andAngola (117%).

Moreover, the Energy Department will begin the scheduled sales from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the coming weeks. This is expected to add about 100,000
b/d to U.S. supplies—relatively small amount (but not insignificant), and still about halfof the cut in exports to the US that analysts expect from OPEC members.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

page 7

Education Lounge

These, among other issues, are the reasons why crude oil prices have been range-boundsince December, despite universal investors’ enthusiasm for the output deals. The otherissues are less stark, but it is looking like higher or lower oil prices in the near-term
will depend on Saudi Arabia’s willingness to cut further to make up for these outputs,
or whether or not KSA can keep its nerve while it continues to lose market share. To
us, it strains credulity that KSA will cut further to make up for renewed vigour in U.S.
production, and that KSA will sit on their hands while its major competitors (OPEC and
Non-OPEC) get the major benefit from current, relatively higher oil prices.

reached intermediate tops. The lower end of our price targets for this initial move up
have also been met (“C” corrective target above USD 54 per barrel, right-hand scale).
Such situations usually result in 3 to 6 months of consolidation down (as shown by
the models on both our oscillator series). Our daily price targets (not shown here) suggest that once it turns, oil could correct back to the low 50s, high 40s USD per barrel.
Following that, we would expect prices to resume their uptrend during H2 2017 toward
year-end (Dec 2017) and go test the resistance of the upper end of our corrective targets
up (toward USD 69 per barrel).

MJT Insight: the first leg up in oil prices since early 2016 should
retrace into Q2 2017

Increasing oil rig count in the U.S.
It is also almost certain that oil production in the U.S. will continue to ratchet higher. Thereis a particular temporal sequence that governs the influence of oil price on the numberof operating oil rigs, and the consequent production after a short lag. Two months after
oil prices sufficiently rise, the number of oil rigs begin to pick up. Six months after asignificant oil price recovery, oil output increases significantly. Baker Hughes reportsthat the number of rigs drilling for oil has risen by more than 280 (almost 90%) since
the end of May 2016. Exploration and production firms are deploying an average of an
extra 10 to 15 rigs each week to boost their oil output.

Brent Oil (Weekly chart or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

Since early January, oil has been consolidating at high levels and in a narrow range.
The period follows the sharp rise in prices, which started at the end of November, following the Vienna OPEC meeting, when an agreement to cut production finally started
to materialise. The MJT weekly chart of Brent oil confirms a toppish view. Indeed, theuptrend sequences on both our oscillator series (lower and upper rectangles) have

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) is optimistic about shale oil performance this year—it reported last week that U.S. shale oil output is set to rebound by asmuch as 500,000 bpd over the course of 2017, which would be a new record.
Market positioning—speculators vs. hedgers and commercials
That oil prices have been very resilient and steady, despite the difficulties being met
in compliance of the agreements, stems from investors’ enthusiasm that the deals will
stick and eventually produce higher oil prices. For the latest weekly reports, speculator
longs made a new record while speculator shorts are at the lowest level since earlyAugust 2014. These are hallmarks of the extremely bullish interpretation of oil fundamentals and of the belief that the output deals will power through by money managers
and speculators.

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Education Lounge
The same extremes are seen in commercial hedgers—but with a bearish connotation:
While commercial net length did not change much, both commercial longs and shorts
are near or at record highs—commercial hedgers’ short positions are almost twice thoseof the long hedgers (see chart below).

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

U.S. crude oil producers had raised short hedges close to the record short interestof 789 million barrels. Producers’ current hedges represent about 23% of U.S. crude
production for one year, and so hedge sales are far from constrained, so there is stillroom for short hedges to build. Aggregate producer-users’ short positioning is almost
twice as much as those of aggregate producer-users’ long positions.

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Education Lounge
Those extremes in the two-way positioning are what have caused oil prices to be range
bound since December, but something will give way soon. We are watching U.S. oil
producers-users, which are using swaps to implement their hedges, as proxy in tracking
the battle of the hedgers. Large oil producers-users using swaps are said to be moresophisticated in the hedging process. What we are seeing is that long producers-users
in swap hedges continue to furiously add to their short positions (see chart below).

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

In fact, the summary of the positioning is that while Managed Money has been an overall
supportive factor, the bigger impact has been producer-user selling. But, there was nooffsetting effect because the foci of the investments have not been the same: managed money’s build in length has been supportive to the front of the curve, while theback end has been hit with a lot of hedge selling by producer-users. Price has indeed
responded, but not in the front end of the curve, which has remained essentially flat forover a month. The back-ends of the WTI and Brent curves, however, have gone lower
by $3 YTD (the red lines below are the futures curve as of December 31, 2016, and thedark lines are as of today).

Crude Oil Futures Curves – Latest vs. 3 months ago

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Education Lounge
We did not speak about actual demand and demand expectations as we concur with
the EIA’s forecast that the oil market will balance only by mid-year, and that demand
will peak (due to seasonal factors) only by early Q4 2017 (see chart below). So, in theinterim, it will be supply-side issues that would determine the evolution of crude oil
price until mid-year.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

MJT Insight: Oil sector under pressure until oil market balances inlate Q2 2017
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) vs. SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)
(Weekly graph or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

On a relative basis, the energy sector has corrected up during most of 2016 vs. theS&P500 index. In December last year, however, it reached an important intermediate
top on both our oscillator series (upper and lower rectangles). The timing of this top wasa bit early compared to what we would ideally expect from such an uptrend sequence.
Furthermore, compared to the strong under-performance registered during 2014 and2015, the rebound has been relatively weak. Hence, the current correction phasedown
might prove quite damaging and may retrace further, possibly erasing most of its 2016
relative gains. We would remain prudent on the sector, probably until late Q2 2017 (asshown by the models on both our oscillators series). The European energy sector vs.
its reference index shows a similar dynamic.

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Education Lounge
Market dynamics for the remainder of 2017, first down, then up
It may be asking too much from the Saudis to further cut output. Indeed, oil producers may find a way to meet the agreed upon targets without any further shenanigans.
However, with U.S. oil producers threatening to make a repeat of pre-2014 surge in oil
output, we doubt very much if OPEC and the Non-OPEC signatories to the agreements
will leave the field to the Americans. Unless the Saudis and the Russians find a way
to make U.S. oil output moderate soon, the period between now and mid-year (whendemand is supposed to pick up sharply) could see oil prices coming down as investors lose their enthusiasm and conviction that the agreements will stick. Nonetheless,we expect H2 to be a more favourable period for rising oil prices, well into early next
year—using the EIA forecasts (see chart above) and the oil term structure as bases(see charts below).

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

MJT insight: collateral consequences of the Q2 2017 retracement in oil

When the dollar has been the more reflationary currency among the majors, it has followed an opposite dynamic vs. oil-related currencies. It has indeed been weaker on
average throughout 2016.
USD vs. Oil-Related Currencies (NOK, CAD, BRL, RUB equal weighted)(Weekly chart or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

This portfolio shows the USD vs. oil-related currencies. Versus these, the USD has
been on the wrong side of the reflation trade. While we expect oil to correct down fromMarch into Q2 2017, invertedly, the dollar should correct up. Our medium-term oscillator
sequence (upper rectangle) shows this projection and an initial corrective top toward
mid-Q2 2017. Following that, from Q3 2017 at the latest, the USD should resume its
downtrend into end 2017/early 2018 vs. these oil-related currencies (see models on
both our oscillators series).

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Education Lounge
Looking for further confirmations and possible related trades, we review several oilsensitive country pair trades, which, over the coming months, may affect country allocation and performance in the various regions.
EWW - iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market Index Fund vs. EWZ - iShares
MSCI Brazil Capped Index Fund
(Weekly graph or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

Brazil is one of the strongest beneficiaries of the rebound in oil prices in 2016, while
Mexico has been entangled in its immigration and trade dispute with President Donald
Trump. As shown by our models on both our oscillator series (upper and lower rectangles), we expect a revaluation of Mexico vs. Brazil over the coming 3 to 6 months.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

page 13

Education Lounge

Poland Wig Index vs. RTS Moscow Index(Weekly graph or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

INDY–iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund vs FXI - iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund
(Weekly graph or the perspective over the next two to four quarters)

In Eastern Europe, oil-dependent Poland has underperformed oil-producing Russia
since 2014. The move, which started as the Russian crisis subsided, actually accelerated in 2016 as oil prices rebounded. Poland’s stock index is now in a Case 4 position(intermediate bottom) versus Russia’s on our long-term oscillators (lower rectangle). It
could now outperfor“In the energy world, India is becoming the new China…It will be the fastest-growing
crude consumer in the world through 2040, according to the IEA, adding 6 million
barrels a day of demand, compared to 4.8 million for China” (Bloomberg, April 2016).
Indeed, while oil is expected to correct, we believe India’s stock market should outperform China’s, possibly into late Q2 2017, as shown from the model projection on our
long-term oscillators (lower rectangle).
Hence, whether we look at oil itself, the energy sector vs. the index, or related currencies

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

No Linear Uptrend for Oil continued

and geographical regions, all seem topoint to an intermediate top on oil and aretracement period from now into late Q2
2017. Following that, the oil nexus should
resume its uptrend toward year-end 2017/
early 2018.

About the authors:

Robert Balan is amacro-strategist andpart of the team at
Diapason Currencies &Commodities UK. He isa key contributor for
The Capital Observer(http://www.thecapitalobserver.com). Mr.
Balan’s educational
background is in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training ineconomics. This led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boomof the early 1970s. He switched to a global
macro focus in the early 1980s with specialization in foreign exchange. Mr. Balan
wrote a very high-profile daily FX analysis
while based in Geneva in the mid-1980s(the first FX commentary with a real global
readership). He worked for Swiss Bank
Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland ashead of technical research and as proprietary trader in London and New York, andsubsequently was head of proprietary
trading in Toronto from the late 1980s to
mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America ashead of global technical research (inLondon and New York) followed in late
1990s to early 2000s. He returned to
Switzerland in 2004 as head of technicalresearch and strategy and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life AssetManagement in Zurich. He joined

Diapason Commodities Management in2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently served as chief market strategist. Mr. Balan wrote a book on the Elliott
Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed
by the London Society of TechnicalAnalysts as “the best book ever written
on the subject.” He is a member of the
National Association for BusinessEconomics (NABE), USA.
Jean-François
Owczarczak, CFTe,
MSTA is the CEO ofManagement Joint
Trust SA (MJT—www.
mjt.ch), a company
founded in 1969 in
Geneva, Switzerland,that provides institutional market advisory
services based on proprietary algorithms.
The methodology uses timing oscillators,
trend analysis, and price target calculations to monitor risk/reward and cyclicality
as well as project likely market scenarios
over timeframes ranging from longer term
charts to intrahour. Coverage includes
circa 5,000 instruments over all asset
classes (stocks, indexes, ETFs, commodities, bond indexes, and interest rates). Mr.
Owczarczak started his career in investment banking (Paribas, then Deutsche
Bank in London), joined MJT in 2003, wasawarded IFTA’s Bronwen Wood Memorial
Award in 2013 (for the best CFTe certification diploma paper in the world during2012), and was nominated in 2015 as a
finalist in “the technical analyst awards”(under the FinGraphs brand-name) for his
research.
This article was published with the permission of The Capital Observer.

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IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 15

Education Lounge

Tactical Report

EUR/USD: Parity target, a clear and present reality

By Ron William, MSTA, CMT

Executive Summary

The latest up-swing in the USD index
reactivated a historic 31-year trend breakout signal. Its final impulsive move offers aparadigm shift for the market’s collective
investor psychology, capital flow trends,
and perception of key events ahead. Sucha positive technical backdrop, coupledwith a hawkish long-term policy shift,helped amplify price reactions to the Fed’s
sequel 0.25% hike in Dec 2016, relative tothe prior year. History had a positive market rhyme, but to a much larger extent.

USD gains are likely to extend sharply higher, as part of a 5-wave impulsive cycle,
coupled with positive speculative flows, which signals further upside scope into 120.
Long-term cycles project an average 8-year cycle, extending into 2019. Expect a nonlinear move, supported by positive seasonality in the month of January (led by traditional
repatriation flows and the presidential inauguration). Stay alert for key cycle windows
during mid-July, into H2 2017, when market volatility is expected to spike. Our timing
models signal a panic-rogue cycle ahead.
Growing divergences of interest rate policy between U.S. and Europe is weighing on
EUR/USD. The spread between U.S./German 2-year government yields, recently at ahistoric widening of -238bps, is leading EUR/USD lower. The higher interest rate environment is also supported by a rising trend in long-term yields, pre-and-post President
Trump’s victory. Potential remains for a UST yield rise to 3%.
EUR/USD triggered a new low breakout under 1.0462, which serves as the lowest
level since 2003. The move is part of a much larger historical price symmetry last seen
between 1985–2001. A sustained weekly close beneath 1.0462 would make the parity
target a clear and present reality, into a 31-year trend support. A perfect storm of asymmetric risk, including political instability in the Euroland ahead of the coming elections,is likely to remain EUR/USD negative.

Why history rhymes but does not repeat.

 The latest upswing in the USD index is having a temporary respite, after breaking
out of a 2-year trading range, which has reactivated a historic 31-year trend breakout
signal (Fig 4).
 Technically speaking, this renewed bullish USD sentiment is part of a 5-wave cyclethat started in 2011 (Fig 3). The final impulsive move offers a paradigm shift for themarket’s collective investor psychology, capital flow trends, and perception of key
events ahead.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
Tactical Report continued

page 16

Education Lounge From a macro perspective, the difference of market reaction was also driven by theFed’s more hawkish long-term stance, which raised their “dot-plot” projection andreversed a strong 2-yr decline (Fig 2).
 Markets had become so conditioned to dovish Fed surprises that even a mildly hawkish
shift was enough to trigger significant market reactions. Speculative flows in net long
USD positions also reflected greater confidence in this latest rise (Fig 2 and 3 inset).

USD breakout signals long-term gains into 120.

 Such a positive technical backdrop helped amplify price reactions to the Fed’s sequel
0.25% hike in Dec 2016, relative to the prior year. History had a positive market
rhyme, but to a much larger extent. The USD index made a higher intraday gain of
1.1%, dwarfing the previous lacklustre move of 0.02% (Fig 1).

 USD gains are likely to extend sharply higher, as part of a 5-wave impulsive cycle,
after breaking out of a 2-year trading range (Fig 3). The move, which started in 2011,
represents a paradigm shift within investor psychology and capital flow trends.
 CFTC large speculative net long USD positons have already triggered a bullish trend
reversal and reflect growing confidence. Although these liquidity indicators do notoffer precise market timing, they can still provide valuable directional confirmation.
Watch for a test of the old 2015 high to refuel USD.
 In terms of the big picture, USD’s latest upswing has also reactivated a 31-year trend
breakout which signals further upside scope into 110 and 120. The latter price target
equates to a 50% quantum retracement of the decline from 1985 and +2 STD of the
USDs historical value zone (Fig 4).

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1
Tactical Report continued

page 17

Education Lounge
Rate divergences push EUR/USD lower.

 A closer study of the USD’s long-term cycles (measured from peak-trough since 1985),
projects an average 8-year cycle that would extend into 2019. Expect a non-linear
move, supported by positive seasonality in the month of January (led by traditional
repatriation flows and the presidential inauguration). Stay alert for key cycle windows
during mid-July, into H2 2017, when market volatility is expected to spike and renew
safe-haven flows into the USD and related haven assets.

 The growing divergence of interest rate policy, particularly between U.S. and Europe,is weighing on EUR/USD. Fig 5 illustrates the spread between US/German 2-year
government yields at a historic widening of -238bps, leading EUR/USD lower. 30-day
rolling correlations remain very strong and stable at around 0.90.
 Here, the bond market is likely to be acting as a potential remote proxima to currencies,
where the bond-dog controls the FX market-tail e.g. by offering greater investment
yield return on the USD.
 On the surface level, both government yields are steepening, but for very different
reasons. The U.S. curve is being led the Fed’s renewed Hawkish stance, coupledwith rising long-term rising yields. Such a scenario, marked by rising short and longend yields, with the latter outperforming, is termed as a ‘bear steepener’. Whereas,
the European short-end of the curve is being pinned down by the ECB’s altered
QE policy (reducing the market’s desire of holding EUR in the medium-term). In
contrast, this signals a ‘bull steepener’ curve, with the short-end falling faster thanrising long-term yields.
 The higher interest rate environment is also supported by a rising trend in long-termyields, pre-and-post President Trump’s victory (Fig 6a). This marks an important endof the 35-year bear trend in yields, after a two-stage bottom process in 2012 and2016. Potential remains for a UST yield rise to 3%, which equates to +1 STD of thehistorical mean (Fig 6b). This psychological level could indicate a pain threshold forrising inflation, weighed by toxic debt or/and future tail-risk (Fig 8b).

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 18

Education Lounge

Tactical Report continued

Parity target, a clear and present reality.

 EUR/USD is once again nearing its extreme low at 1.0341, which serves as the lowest
level since 2003. The move is part of a much larger historical price symmetry last
seen between 1985-2001, which exhibited a two-stage impulsive rise and volatilecorrective fall. Both price analogs developed strong uptrends, lasting 91-93 months
that were short-circuited by crisis events. (Fig 7).
 A sustained weekly close beneath 1.0341 would make the parity target a clear andpresent reality, into a 31-year trend support. Of note, EUR/USD parity target was
projected over 2-years ago, following a major breakdown from a 12-year accumulation
pattern, supported by a long-term bear cycle skew (Fig 7 inset).

 Using more traditional methods suchas Point & Figure charting also signals
further downside scope into 0.9900
and 0.9700 (Fig 8a). The latter target
was activated in October 2014. Only aclose back above 1.1000 (value zone)
would neutralize this scenario.
 There is a perfect storm of asymmetricrisk, marked by the latest technicalbreakdown, growing interest rate
divergences, compounded by geometric
event risk into 2017 (Fig 8b). The highest
probability tail risk is signalled by ourtiming models, predicting a panic/rogue
cycle this year. Political instability in theEuroland is a plausible trigger, not least,
ahead of the oncoming elections. Bothfactors are EUR/USD negative.

Ron William, MSTA, CMT

Ron William is seniortactical and market
timing strategist for theTechnical Research
Te a m a t t h e E C UGroup. Founded in
1988, ECU is a global
macro research, advisory, and investment
firm specializing in currency risk management. An accomplished strategist, trader,and educator, Mr. William has 15 years offinancial industry experience working forleading economic research and institutional firms, producing macro research andtrading strategies. He specializes in macroand semi-discretionary analysis, driven bycycles and proprietary timing models.
Mr. William’s work, most recently as partof his institutional market advisory firm
(RWA), received global industry recognition with the 2014/2013 finalist award
for “Best Independent Research House
for FX” and 2012 finalist award for “BestTechnical Analyst of the Year.” His market insights are featured regularly acrossnotable industry publications and financial
media programs. Mr. William worked at
Bloomberg LP for four years as a seniortechnical analyst specialist, responsible
for training/consultation across the EMEA
region, and contributed to the development of charting strategies and the technical analysis platform of the Bloomberg
Professional Service.
He is an active member of IFTA, vice president and head of the Geneva Chapterof the Swiss Association of Market
Technicians (SAMT), and honorary member of the Egyptian Society of TechnicalAnalysts (ESTA). He holds both the MSTA
and CMT professional designations.

Disclaimer and Disclosures

No information published constitutes asolicitation, or offer, or recommendation, or
advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 19

Education Lounge

Tactical Report continued

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RW Advisory (RWA) makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the
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IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 20IFTAJOURNAL CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSThe IFTA Journal is an annual publication established by
the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It iscollated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students,
and practitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It
contains a wealth of resource material and is an excellent
reference for anyone interested in technical analysis.

Credibility and Recognition

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents coveringdevelopments in technical analysis in global markets.
The Journal reaches leading practitioners and students
of technical analysis throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments
impacting, either directly or indirectly, the ﬁeld oftechnical analysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in theinvestment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics
tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas oftechnical analysis and those that connect with it.

Submitting Contributions

Registration and submission of contributions is online
via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor,
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Unless another license is noted, we will assume that yourcontribution is under this license.

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All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
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December

Web publication

For more information, see our website
www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2017 Volume 24 Issue 1

page 21IFTA Member Societies
AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA* Financial Technical Analyst Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA* Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts site.malaysianchartist.com
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
TUNISIA—ATAT* Association Tusisienne des Analystes Technique
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule
The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 6,950 IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
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Education articles: May 15

All other content: June 1

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Board of Directors
President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
m.elsaiid@gmail.com
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karin.roller@vtad.deVice President Middle East and Africa; Examination Director Saleh Nasser, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@pharosholding.com
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Conference Director Mr. Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
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ron.william@samt-org.ch
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Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
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th
The IFTA 30

Annual Conference
SPONSORSHIP PACKAGESWhat is IFTA?
The International Federation of Technical Analysts was incorporated in 1986 and is a global organisation of market analysis
societies and associations. IFTA is an international non-profit organisation with member societies in 24 countries. The
International Federation of Technical Analysts offers certification to technical analysts around the world.
The four main goals of IFTA are to: Provide a centralized international exchange for information, data, business practices, local customs and all matters related
to technical analysis in various financial centres.
 Provide meetings and encourage the interchange of material, ideas and information for the purpose of adding to theknowledge of colleagues of individual societies and associations.
 Foster the establishment of local (country) societies of technical analysts around the world.

 Encourage the highest standards of professional ethics and competence among technical analysts worldwide.

What is SIAT?
SIAT - Italian Society of Technical Analysis - is the Italian association for technical analysts. Founded in 1986, SIAT replicatesfrom the Italian perspective the guiding principles of IFTA – International Federation of Technical Analysts - the international
non-profit organisation, founded in 1986, with member societies in 24 countries.
The four main goals of SIAT are to: Promote the knowledge of technical analysis for their correct use in the formulations of investment decisions
 Facilitate the exchange of the information and the dissemination of technical knowledge into its associates
 Promote the research and the depth of the subject issues through seminars and meetings
 Establish, maintain and encourage high levels of skills into associates

It is a non-profit organisation with a membership consisting of institutional traders, fund managers and analysts at asset
management companies, financial advisors, individual investors and traders, research analysts and independent research houses,bankers, stock brokers, hedge fund marketers, as well as growing numbers of academics.

IFTA Member Societies

IFTA Conferences
The first annual IFTA conference was held in Tokyo, Japan, hosted by NTAA, in 1988. Since then, IFTA has continuously heldan Annual Conference in different locations throughout the World, usually in the autumn, hosted by the member of thatcountry. SIAT hosted the IFTA 1998 Conference in Rome and is delighted to once again host IFTA 2017 in Italy, this time in
Milan.

Past IFTA Conferences

IFTA 2017

Sailing to the future
The Italian Society of Technical Analysis (SIAT) is delighted to be hosting the 2017 International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts’ Conference in Milan.
The IFTA 30th Annual Conference will be held at the Excelsior Hotel Gallia, an architectural jewel of Belle Epoque, on Friday
13 – Sunday 15 October.
We expect the conference to be attended by 250+ professional, such as advisors, fund buyers, asset managers, private bankers
and professional traders, not only from Europe and Italy, but also from USA and Asian countries.

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Conference Publicity- 1x2 Priority choice of exhibition space- Opportunity to have one speaking slot
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Bronze:€ 5.000

Pre-Conference Publicity- Logo on SIAT and IFTA website (www.siat.org) (www.ifta.org in restyling) through 2017 with hyperlink to Company website- Logo on Conference website- ¼ page, 4 colour ad in electronic IFTA Update (1 issue) – (reaches 7500 colleagues worldwide)- Acknowledgement in promotional materials- Advance mailing to delegate list
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Conference Publicity- Exhibition space in a key location- Company name and logo on sponsors’ acknowledgement boards, which will be prominently displayed throughout the Conferencevenue- Acknowledgement as Bronze sponsor with company logo in the Final Programme- Editorial entry in the Final Programme- Half page colour advert in Final ProgrammeOur Social Media Channels
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