IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 12016 Volume 23 Issue 4

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE
1

President’s Report to Colleagues

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

IFTA2016 Sydney
Australia Highlights

Dear IFTA Colleagues,

5

Calendar At-A-Glance

6

Congratulations New CFTes!

6

IFTA Journal 2017 – Now Available!

Education Lounge

11

7

Using Recent Returns for Mean Reversion

9

A 29-Month Cycle Low Indicates GoldMay Hit a Bottom Around April 2018
Member News

12 Congratulations New and Re-Elected IFTA
Board Members (Term October 2016 –October 2019)

Almost two months have passed since we held
our annual 29th IFTA Conference in Sydney,hosted by the ATAA. Whether it was the exceptional list of guest speakers, the stimulating
theme and topics, or the overall organization,
the conference was a great success. This canonly be attributed to the tremendous work andeffort of our ATAA Conference Committee colleagues as well as the ATAA board and othermembers who were responsible for deliveringsuch an outstanding event.

13 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
14 IFTA Journal Call for Submissions
15 IFTA Member Societies
15 IFTA Update Schedule
15 Board of Directors

Next Issue: March 2017
Submission Deadlines
Education articles: February 15—
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: March 1—
send submissions to admin@ifta.org
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach more than
6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. For more
information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

In recognition for their tremendous undertaking and accomplishment this year, I offer
a special thank you note to Alek Jankowski,
IFTA conference director and ATAA president; Robert Grigg, conference chair; RobertBrain, Conference Committee member; John
Zubrinich, Conference Committee member;
George Gross, Conference Committee member; and Max Knobel, master of ceremonies.
IFTA’s AGM was held one day prior to the conference. Three board directors stepped down
after generously and passionately serving on
the IFTA board for two consecutive terms. We

bid farewell to Akira Homma (director/VP Asia
Pacific), Dan Valcu (marketing and membership director), and Mohamed Ashraf (director/
VP Middle East and Africa). On behalf of IFTA, I
thank you for your profound, active, passionate and significant contributions to IFTA overthe past years. I have certainly enjoyed working with you, and I sincerely wish you all thebest in your future endeavors.
Moreover, at the AGM, liaisons and representatives on behalf of your societies voted to electsix new board members, some of whom had
previously served a single term. IFTA welcomes
Gregor Bauer (VTAD), Alek Jankowski (ATAA)
and Jeanette Schwartz-Young (AAPTA), who
are now serving their second terms on the
IFTA board, as well as new colleagues Simon
Warren (STA), Takashi Nakamura (NTAA) andFrancesco Caruso (SIAT).
Our next conference will be held in Milan, Italy,
October 13–15, 2017, at the Excelsior Hotel Gallia.
The conference will be hosted by Societa
Italiana di Analisi Tecnica (SIAT). It has been
well over 19 years since ATAA hosted its last

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International Federationof Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a not-for-profit
professional organization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

IFTA Annual Conference (1998 in Rome), and I
very much look forward to attending the 30th
Annual IFTA Conference in Milan!
After a short break in our webinar program, I
am pleased to inform you that we are preparing for a series of new webinars in 2017 with alist of highly regarded keynote speakers lined
up. I hope you will find the upcoming webinar
series as interesting and educational as always.
Last, but not least, I would like to thank all
member societies who have shared updates
and news from your local societies. Sharing
information, knowledge and experience is andwill always be, in spirit, the reason why IFTA
exists and continues to do so.
Best wishes for the new year and happy holidays to all!

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 2

IFTA2016 Sydney
Australia Highlights
From Theory to Profitability: Achieving
Better Returns Through Technical Analysis

 235 delegates and partners
 20 countries
 24 speakers
 5 Sponsors and Exhibitors
 Cocktail Party, Sydney Harbour
Boat Cruise, Grand Dinner

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4
IFTA 2016 Annual Conference Photos continued

page 3

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

IFTA2017
October 2017 Milan, Italy
30th Annual Conference
October 13-15, 2017
Excelsior Hotel Gallia
Piazza Duca D’Aosta 9
Milan, Italy
www.excelsiorhotelgallia.com

page 4
Hosted by: Societa Italiana di Analisi Tecnica (SIAT)IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 5

Calendar At-A-Glance
Date

Topic
Monthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

HostSpeaker

Location

Time

Contact

STANZ(New
Zealand)

Various

Epsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are free to members.

ATAA(Australia)

Various

Various

Varieswww.ataa.com.au/meetings

Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA and plan social and

CSTA
Chapters(Canada)Various

Various

Varieswww.csta.org

Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the second Tuesday of

STA

VariesBritish Bankers Association • Pinners Hall 105 – 108
Old Broad Street • London EC2N 1EX

VariesKatie Abberton, info@sta-uk.org

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management, psychology).

Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors fee is $30.

educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry professionals and technicalanalysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play a vital role in their communities byconnecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
every month, except for a summer break in August.

2017
Feb

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path, Session 1
application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

3

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—deadline to register for April
examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 paper submission
deadline

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org
http://www.ifta.org

Apr

20

CFTe II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org http://www.ifta.org

May

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration opens for October
examination through IFTA website

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application, outline,
and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

Mar

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org Attn: Aurélia Gerber

31

IFTA Journal Call for Papers submissions deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

June

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

Oct2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application, outline
and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

12

IFTA Annual General Meeting (AGM)

IFTA & SIAT

VariesExcelsior Hotel Gallia
Piazza Duca D’Aosta 9, Milan, Italy

16:00-17:30

admin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

13-15

IFTA 30th Annual Conference

IFTA & SIAT

VariesExcelsior Hotel Gallia
Piazza Duca D’Aosta 9, Milan, Italy

Variesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 paper submission
deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

TBD

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

1

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles (mid-December
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

1

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

Nov

Dec

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 6

Congratulations New CFTes!

IFTA Journal 2017 – Now Available!

Mohamed Ahmed-Mansour
Abdelfattah (ESTA)

Thoecharis Georgiou (STA)

Mohd Hafiz Farhan Bin Mustafa (MATA)

Mohamed Saleh Ghaith (ESTA)

Konstantin Oldenburger (VTAD)

We are pleased to announce that the 2017 IFTA Journal is now available for viewing and downloadfrom the IFTA website. Please share with your society colleagues and/or post to your website.

Yahia Fathi Abdelkader (ESTA)

Gioele Giordano

Mohd Azli Bin Othman (MATA)

Hussein Gabr Abdelnaser (ESTA)

Bogdan-Alexandru Grigore (STA)

Cristie Parker (STA)

Mohd Hamdan Bin Abdul Manaf (MATA) Carlos Grima Izquierdo (IEATEC)

Nik Ihsan Bin Raja Abdullah (MATA)

Mohd Shukri Bin Abdullah (MATA)

Priyesh Halai (STA)

Anas Kamal-Ali Aboelghet (ESTA)

Ehab Ossam Hanna (ESTA)

Mohamad Shahril Nizam bin Ramli(STA)

Shaymaa Tharwat Abou Salem

Mohd Amir Bin Hassan (MATA)

Ahmad Izzudeen Bin Razali (MATA)

Mohd Ghazali Bin Abu Bakar (MATA)

Noorhasnizam Bin Hassan (MATA)

Mina Magdy-Monier Reyad (ESTA)

Ibrahem Abdelaziz Ali (ESTA)Aw Yong Tuck Lee Henry (TASS)

Nicolas Robert (AFATE)

Jean-Regis Allard (STA)

Ignacio Hernandez Fradejas (IEATEC)

Edward Rushton

Munzir Bin Alwi (MATA)

Marion Justine Houlet (STA)

Nazrin Effendi Bin Saleh (MATA)

Moneer Mohamed Aly (ESTA)

Mohd Oqbal Bin Ilias (MATA)

Heba Mahmoud Amin (ESTA)

Effendy Bin Ismail (MATA)

Mahmoud Mostafa-Ahmed Salem(ESTA)

Wieland Arlt (VTAD)

Jazli Izzuddin Bin Jamaludin (STA)

Swen Sander (VTAD)

Moufid Ayoubi

Adzrul Afni Kadri (STA)

Aria Santoso (AATI)

Mohd Zulhazlami Bin Azizan (MATA)

Nurul Husna Binti Mustafa Kamal(MATA)

Marian Yacoub-Tawfeek Sedrak (ESTA)

Imran Bin Kamali (MATA)

Mohamed Ali-Abdallah Shokr (ESTA)

Omar Mohamed-Tayssir Beshir (ESTA)

Mohamad Amir Marwan Bin
Mohamad Kamar (MATA)

Soon Hee Song (STA)

Peter Anwar Bishay (ESTA)

Alexander Keck (VTAD)

Heng Boon Yong (STA)

Mohammed Mamdooh Khalil (ESTA)

Jens Burczak (VTAD)

Patrick Klimek (VTAD)

Zahid Bin Chee Mee (MATA)

Krishan Kumar (ATA)

Mohamed Ahmed Darwish (ESTA)

Abdul Hafiez Bin Abdul Latiff (MATA)

Stephanie Eismann (VTAD)

Tse Lee

El Sayed Ahmed El Sayed (ESTA)

Edward Luta Anak Gidion Lembang(MATA)

Laszlo Bajtai (STA)
Zoe Bancroft (STA)

Mohamed Mounir-Abdelhamid
Elalkamy (ESTA)

Charalampos Shanios (STA)

Jochen Stanzl (VTAD)
Ahmad Ridzuan Bil Sulaiman (MATA)
Fazida Binti Suliman (STA)
Paul Tellwright (STA)
Sebastian Thein
Jonas Pastor Tunon (IEATEC)
Christian Urbigkeit (VTAD)
Mahmoud Wahby (ESTA)Tan Yung Lung (MATA)

Ji Wei (ATAA)

Mohamed Mohamed Bahiey Elkholy(ESTA)

Ahmed Karem Mahmoud (ESTA)

Denis Winter (VTAD)

Peter Masry Makanota (ESTA)Kai Sheng Wong (STA)

Ahmed Samir-Sayed Elmallah (ESTA)MD Hasrin Bin MD Hassim (MATA)

Karen Wong (ATAA)

Ahmed Hussein Elsayed (ESTA)

Gabor Mehringer (VTAD)

Marwa Yehia Younis (ESTA)

Ayman Mohamed-Nagah Elsayed (ESTA) Marco Meola (STA)
Ashraf Shawky-Abdelazez Elsherbeny Essam Hassan Metwally (ESTA)(ESTA)
Mohamed Hussein Mohamed (ESTA)

Sameh Gharib Younis (ESTA)

Inside this issue:
MFTA Papers
 Line Break Charts
 Entropy of Market Profile: A New Method of
Determining Trend Days in Futures Markets
 The Composite Index: A Divergence Analysis Study Trend Without Hiccups—A Kalman Filter Approach Wrestling With a Grizzly Bear: An Argument Against
Pure Buy and Hold Investing StockCharts Technical Ranking (SCTR) System:
How the SCTR Indicator Can Help Novice andAdvanced Investors Rapidly Evaluate a Stock inReal Time The Significance of the 400-Day Moving Average
as a Sell Signal as Compared to Other Moving
Averages Price Rotation Around Pyramid Cones Theory andSquare of Nine Bands Indicator and Oscillator
 The Calculation of the Target Levels of Japanese
Candlestick Patterns by Using Patterns Confirmation Filters

Articles Constructing Optimal Momentum Systems—Optimize or Diversify?
 A Point-and-Figure Chart Study of the US Stock Market, 2015–16: The Wyckoff Method
Applied An Empirical Comparison of Fast and Slow Stochastics
 Multivariate Regression Analysis: Considering the Relevance of Past Performance and more...

Noha Abdelrahman Youssef (ESTA)
Wael Shawky Youssef (ESTA)

André Fellendorf (VTAD)

Mohd Ridha Bin Mohd Rashdan (MATA) Raja Fadilah Binti Raja Zaifohad (MATA)

Emad Wafky-Kamel Georey (ESTA)

Noor Faizah Binti Muridan (STA)

Kyraki Zeniou-Themistokleous (STA)

For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them.
—Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 7

Education Lounge

Using Recent Returns for Mean Reversion
By Cesar Alvarez
In most of my mean reversion posts, I use RSI(2)to determine if a stock has sold off. In this post,
I will explore how to use a stock’s recent returnto determine if it has sold off. This will be donein way to normalize the return between low
and high volatile stocks. This basic strategy
has only two setup rules.

A ROC(3), which is the 3-day rate of change,
would be: ROC(3) = 100 *(today’s close/theclose 3 days ago – 1), and for 11/25/2016 it
would be:ROC(3) = 100 *(2213.35/2198.18 – 1) = .69%

Potential Issues With ROC
Rate of Change
We will be using Rate of Change (ROC) of theclosing price. The formula is:
ROC(length) = 100*(today’s close/the close
length days ago – 1)
Here is recent data on the S&P 500 index:

For AmiBroker users, I am using thePercentRank formula. This is how AmiBroker
defines it: Returns percent rank (0…100) of thecurrent element within all elements over the
specified range.

One could simply have a buy rule that ROC beless than -10% to determine if a stock has soldoff. The potential problem with this is that fora high volatile stock, this may not be a very big
sell off. But for a stock with low volatility, thismay rarely happen. How do we normalize thisso we get signals that make sense for both low
and high volatile stocks?

PercentRank
What we want to know is, how does the current ROC(n) compare to the past ROC(n) of
the stock. In particular, I want to know where
the current ROC(n) ranks over all the ROC(n)sover the last year.

A value of 100 indicates that the current element
is the highest for the given lookback range, whilea value of 0 indicates that the current value is thelowest for the given lookback range.
Walking through an example should make it
clearer.
Example of PercentRank of ROC(3) over thelast 30 days using the S&P-500:

In the “ROC(3)” column, we have all the 3-day
returns for the last 30 days. Next we want toknow what is the PercentRank for the returnon 11/25/2016. For each of the last 30 days,
we enter a “1” under the “Count?” column ifthat day’s return is less than or equal to thereturn on 11/25/2016 of .69%. Next, we add
up the values over the last 30 days. Here, wehave 20. We then take this total and divide itby the lookback period of 30. PercentRank =100*(20/30)=66.67%. This tells us the 3-day
return on 11/25 is better than 66% of the returns
over the last 30 days.
Since we are looking for a selloff and I wantto compare to over the last year, we want
PercentRank over the last 252 days of theROC(3) to be less than 15. Clear as mud? If
this does not make sense, ask questions in thecomments below.

The Strategy Setup
 Stock is member of the Russell 1000 index.
 The price of the stock is greater than $1. We
want to avoid very low-priced stocks.

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 8

Education Lounge

Using Recent Returns for Mean Reversion continued

 The 21-day moving average of Close time
Volume is greater than $10 million. We wantto make sure there is liquidity.
 The close is above the 100-day moving
average.
 The 252-day PercentRank of the 2-day returns
is below 5.

Buy Enter at a limit price today at 1/2 of ATR(10)below previous close.
 12.5% of portfolio in each position.
 Only enter orders so that if they all fill, we will
not have over eight open positions.

Sell
 2 period RSI greater than 40.
 Exit on next open.
Nothing fancy here. Simple setup, entry, andexit rules.

Results
Dates: 1/1/2006 to 10/31/2016

http://alvarezquanttrading.com/2016/12/07/
using-recent-returns-for-mean-reversion/

About the Author
Cesar Alvarez attended the
Universit y of California,
Berkeley, where he received
his bachelor of science degree
in electrical engineering andcomputer science in 1989 andhis master of science degree
in computer science in 1990.
He was a software engineer on Excel versions
3, 4, and 5, helping Microsoft Excel go from asingle digit market share to owning themarket.
Mr. Alvarez spent nine years as a professional
market researcher for Connors Research
and TradingMarkets.com. He has been at
the forefront of stock market research, having developed a number of successful trading systems now used by numerous investors
and fund managers in the United States and

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These are some decent looking numbers given
the rules. Unfortunately, like a lot of stock
mean reversion strategies, the last couple ofyears have not been that great.

internationally. Mr. Alvarez has given trading
presentations both over the web and in person
to hundreds of traders.

Visit us at the MetaStock Booth to discover all the NEW
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IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 9

Education Lounge

A 29-Month Cycle Low Indicates Gold May Hit a Bottom Around April 2018
By KC Chan

Introduction
The U.S. presidential election ended just a few
weeks ago; it was an unforgettable show, eventhough you might feel deceived by the polls.
The result shocked both political world andfinancial markets.
Many people kept saying that if Trump won,
the market uncertainty would help to draghot capital to protective asset class, such as
Yen and Gold. Why then, on election day, didGold and Yen both lose their luster and start
to tumble?
II strongly believe that if you are a technicalanalyst, it is not hard to figure out why. Recall
back in October 2014 and 2015, during the
IFTA conferences, two of our speakers used
cycle analysis successfully to project that the
USD was already back to its uptrend fromits historical low of 1 USD to 75.54 Yen in Oct
2011. According to their analysis, a local peakof the USD should have occurred in June 2015
when USYEN was traded at 125.8, followed bya correction, to be seen in June 2016. Finally,
USYEN was traded at its local bottom in June
2016 at 98.96 Yen. This forecast was made by
Mr. Naohiko Miyata and is definitely impressive!

Using Time Cycle Analysis
When we talk about cycles in mathematicalterms, the cosine function describes a cycle.

By using this mathematical cycles study of the
wave form, scientist can precisely read radio
wave frequency and predict natural phenomena such as tidal waves, sunrise and sunset,
etc., though not earthquakes and tornados.
However, in terms of the markets, could thecycles predict the price so precisely like atuning fork? There is no controversy—theanswer is “no”. The reason is simple; because
mathematical cycles are all about measuring, interpreting and describing the physicalnature. All these cycles fall into a regular pattern, and basically no deviation exists. But
human behavior is never like physical activities.
Markets are made by humans, and we humans
are easily affected by enormous exogenous
factors (i.e.,“noise”) in their decision-making
processes. This is the main reason no trading
model exists that can successfully quantify themarket movements at a mathematical level
like was used to forecast the tidal waves.
There are no true harmonics in all markets.
Even when we observe a cycle in the Dow Jones
Index, it doesn’t imply the same cycle happensin the Hang Seng Index. In fact, more and morestudies and findings show market trend tends
to be periodic, and extremes can be measured
in time. By the observation of periodicity ofprice performance, there are clues to show
the correlation, not the causation, of the pricemovements and the time, hence making useof these cycles to forecast the cyclical timingof future price movements.
You may have come across some studies
about the correlation between the Sun’s black
spot and the S&P 500, the SIM seasonality
pattern of the Dow Jones Index. The annual
cycle exists in the agricultural commodities aswell as the Presidential cycle every four years
in the United States. Even though you haveconfidence over these “human cycles,” youmay not have the capability to measure theamplitude (power or volatility) of these cycles.
To address this issue, I suggest to using bands
or envelopes for price projection.
FIGURE 1. USD/YEN monthly chart since 1980

From the inspiration of Mr. Naohiko Miyata at
the Tokyo IFTA conference, he clearly showedthat the USD/YEN has experienced five 8-year
cycle peaks since 1982, which are 277 Yen in
1982, 160 Yen in 1990,
146 Yen in 1998, 124 Yen in 2007 and 125 Yen in2015, respectively. Meanwhile, USD/YEN also
experienced 16.5-year cycle lows since Oct 1978
when USD/YEN was traded at 177 Yen; the next
low happened precisely at April 1995 (79 Yen)
and again 16.5 years later—a historical low
at 75 Yen struck in October 2011. This cycle ofpeaks and lows indicates that the next cycle
high could be expected to happen in June 2023
and the next cycle low in March 2028.

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 10

Education Lounge
By using the cycle analysis in Gold since 2000,
after Gold hit a historical low since 1979 at$252 in September 1999, it has experienced
four 56-month cycle peaks, in September 2011
$296, May 2006 $730, September 2011 $1,920
and July 2016 $1375, respectively. For the cycle
lows, Gold has a 29-month cycle low since mid2006. These lows are clearly indicated by thegreen lines in FIGURE 2.
Interestingly, Gold just experienced a cycle
peak in July of this year, which is strong evidence that Gold is probably approaching its
cycle low in April 2018. We also learned that

FIGURE 2. GOLD monthly chart since 2000

the cycle peak in July was tamed by the resistance produced from the cycle peak in 2011 and$1,500 in October 2012.
The price of Gold was under pressure from the
Ichimoku Kino Hyo Senko Span at $1,387 in Juneof this year. Also, the same level is the 38.2%of the Fibonacci retracement. In addition, thelong black candle afterwards in November
and the head and shoulder top pattern happen in the weekly chart of FIGURE 4 .

Conclusion

About the Author

Cycle analysis is important for any investment
strategy; it provides savvy players with a goodtool for projecting the timing of the next peak
and bottom of their asset classes. For Gold,I expect another cycle low will be aroundFebruary 2023, coinciding with the USD 8-year
cycle peak.
Finally, if you want to buy Gold for mediumterm investment, be patient and do it after
April 2018.

Gold has a good chance to challenge $1,090 in
Q1 2017 and approach a new low by April 2018.

FIGURE 3. Gold monthly chart with Ichimoku Kino Hyo and
Fibonacci retracement

KC Chan is the founder andchief technical analyst of KAB
Strategy Ltd. (www.kab.hk).
Mr. Chan started his careerin 1989 as an FX analyst anda columnist of four financial
newspapers in Hong Kong.
He has a bachelor’s degree in banking andfinance and was granted his CFTe in 2012.
Mr. Chan started FTAA, a developing societyof IFTA in Hong Kong, China, in April 2014, andcurrently he is the chairman of the society.

FIGURE 4. Gold Weekly chart with oscillators

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 11

Member NewsSTA (United Kingdom)
Society of Technical Analysts
On Wednesday, November 30, the Society ofTechnical Analysts celebrated its 30th anniversary with a dinner at the National Liberal Clubin London, commemorating three decades
as the industry’s guiding body. The STA is infact the oldest professional body of its kind in
the world. Its predecessor, the Association ofChart and Technical Analysts, or ACTA, wasfounded in 1968.
“Looking around at everyone here this evening, old members and new, brings home to
me just how far we have come since 1968 in
expanding awareness and understanding oftechnical analysis and behavioural finance,”
said STA Chair Axel Rudolph, FSTA MCSI. “Halfa century ago, technical analysis was about
as mainstream as witchcraft. Today, our discipline is accepted and welcomed as a vital
investment tool in an increasingly complex
financial universe.”
Mr. Rudolph thanked two of his predecessors
for their many years of hard work. The STA’s
very first leader, Philip Gray, chairperson from1986–1989, made an audio presentation to
the 119 guests, while the after dinner speech
was given by Robin Griffiths, who chaired theSociety from 1989–1992.

Mr. Griffiths reminded members just how muchfinancial techniques have advanced alongwith modern technology. His first adventureswith technical analysis involved laboriously
filling in sheets of graph paper, a methodologythat predates modern computers and spreadsheets by many years.

Society’s Marketing Committee; former chair,
Anne Whitby; and honorary fellow, Mark
Tennyson d’Eyncourt.

Also thanked at the dinner were the STA headof marketing, Karen Jones, responsible for theHave you signed up to thefree Optuma Blog?

Weekly posts featuring:• Market commentary from seasoned experts• Insights into Technical Analysis breakthroughs• Innovative Quantitative ideas for Technical Analysts

Optuma.com/Blog®
by Market Analyst

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 12Congratulations New and Re-Elected IFTA Board Members(Term October 2016 – October 2019)
Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe
Examination Director
Gregor Bauer works as anindependent asset manager for private clientsand companies inGermany. He is also thepresident of the German
Association of TechnicalAnalysts (www.VTAD.de).
Gregor authored two
books on technical analysis and covers a regular technical outlook on German TV. He also
writes articles for leading financial newspapers
on a regular basis. He is specialized in applying
advanced candlestick techniques in combination with traditional western techniques.
Gregor conducts lectures in portfolio management and technical analysis at various elite
universities in Germany and Liechtenstein andruns seminars and workshops on technicalanalysis for institutional Investors. Together
with a partner, he runs a very successful
computer-based, medium-term ETF trading
system, which is now also open to institutional
investors.
Gregor serves on the board of directors of IFTA
as a member of the Execution Committee, andin his capacity as exam management director, he oversees the exam administration andis responsible for structuring the exams. For
further information please visit: www.drbauerconsult.de or follow him on Facebook.

in the official 2010 IFTA Journal. In 2011,
Francesco entered the newly organized SIAT
Awards for the first time and won. He won
again in 2015.

Francesco Caruso, MFTA
Conference Director
Francesco Caruso graduated from Bocconi
University with a degreein economics. Since 1989,
as fund manager andchief of relevant
European financial organizations, he has focusedon the development oftrading systems and the application of technical and algorythmic analysis to asset management and asset allocation.
Fracesco has published books and articles
for financial media and created many technical models and indicators, including theComposite Momentum®. He is a two-timewinner (1997 and 1998) of the international
award, Leonardo d’Oro della Ricerca
Finanziaria®, in the technical analysis division. In 2008, he became the first MFTA in
Italian history and was awarded IFTA’s John
Brooks Award® for the best MFTA paper. The
paper, “Technical Tools and Equity Selection:
A Reward/Risk Rating Indicator for the Stock
Market Components”, was also publishedFrancesco has 30 years of experience in all thefields of financial markets, from technical andquantitative analysis to trading, asset allocation, and asset management. He is a strategist,
chief of financial area, member of the boardof directors, CEO, and consultant for primaryfinancial groups (UBIBANCA, BANCA DELSEMPIONE, ARCA GROUP, RCF, MELIOBANCA,
BANCA INTERMOBILIARE, BANQUE MORVALetc.), He is currently a prominent financial blogger and author of technical books and specialized articles, founder and owner of Market
Risk Management, and an Italian leader inindependent advisory. He is also an advisor
for banks and funds and is associate professor at the Cassino University in the Executive
Master’s degree in Quantitative and TechnicalAnalysis of the Financial Markets.
Francesco is vice president of SIAT, the ItalianTechnical Analysis Society, and president of the
Scientific Committee of the association. He has
held many courses and conferences on technical analysis and markets and has already been
an official speaker at IFTA 1998 (Rome) andIFTA 2006 (Lugano) and the SIAT ambassador
at the IFTA Annual Congress 2007.

Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc.,
Grad.Dip.Mgt.
Membership Director
Alek Jankowski originallytrained as an electricalengineer (University of
New South Wales) andalso holds post-graduate
degrees in industrial engineering (o perati o ns
research) and management. Prior to retiringfrom full-time employment, Alek worked for a
Fortune 500 international corporation as group
general manager, with responsibility for several
businesses in Australia, New Zealand andSoutheast Asia. During his career, he worked
for several international corporations where heheld senior executive roles. He joined the ATAA
some nine years ago and since retirement, hastaken an active role within the organisation.
Alek joined the local Chapter Council in 2013
and then the National Board in 2014. He waselected president in November 2015.
Alek has a keen interest in financial markets,with his current focus on the managementof his personal investment portfolio and thedevelopment of his own trading systems. He
has been instrumental in the development of alarge aged care facility in Sydney and has been
the finance director for some 15 years. He is

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 13Congratulations New and Re-Elected IFTA Board Members continued
now the deputy chairman. An active Rotarianfor 32 years, he has served that organisation
at Club and District levels.

Takashi Nakamura, MFTA, MBA, MA,
CIIA, CMA, CFP, MRICS, CTP, SMECA
Secretary, Development Director
Asia-Pacific Affairs
Takashi Nakamura is asenior strategist at TokaiTokyo Research Center,mainly focusing on theJapanese stock market,
including J-REIT utilizing
technical analysis in combination with fundamental approach and behavioral finance theory.
Prior to his current position, Takashi worked forboth sell-side and buy-side, Yamaichi
Securities, Merrill Lynch Japan Securities, Japan
Investment Trust, Sompo Japan AssetManagement, and Okasan Asset Management.
Takashi has more than 15 years of experience in the field of financial markets. In his
previous positions at the asset managementcompanies he has served, he managed pension fund and mutual fund portfolios as afund manager, investing in stocks (includingREIT) in developed countries; emerging markets (mainly focusing on Asian markets); andlarge-, mid-, and small-cap funds; and employing active quantitative investment strategies
and bottom-up approach complemented byfundamental and technical analysis.
Takashi graduated from Keio University(Faculty of Business and Commerce). He

received his MBA from the University of WalesHABS and an M.A. in clinical psychology from
Alliant International University/California
School of Professional Psychology. He is avisiting professor at Buckinghamshire New
University.

of directors. She is also a past and current
member of IFTA’s board of directors. Jeanette
is the author of the Option Queen Letter, aweekly newsletter issued and published every
Sunday. She is a member of ICE, COMEX, andCHX holdings, and is also a member of the
Adelphi University Presidents Counsel.

Jeanette Schwarz Young CFP®, CMT, M.S.
Vice President Americas
Jeanette Schwarz Young
has been a Wall Street
professional since 1981,
when she began her professional career with
Thomson Mc K innon
Securities. Her career
includes portfolio management, syndication, option strategist,
hedger, operations principal, bond principal,
pit trader, and general market trader. Jeanette
worked for the NYBOT (New York Board ofTrade) and later ICE, where she wrote, produced, and aired two daily market reports
covering the financials, currencies, and softs,
which include Frozen Concentrated Orange
Juice, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee and Cotton. She
has been a frequent guest on FOX, CNBC,
Bloomberg, Yorba TV, CNN and others. She
was a market maker in the FINEX ring (Russell
2000 ring) and became an expert hedger. As
such, she has used this skill-set to protect capital and make money.

In 2007, her book The Options Doctor was
published by John Wiley & Son. She placed
third in the globe in the National Investment
Challenge Pro Option’s Division in the
mid-90s.

Jeanette was the first director of the CMT program for the Market Technicians Associationand is the past president of American
Association of Professional TechnicalAnalysts and continues to serve on the board

Simon has been treasurer of the STA since2003 and was also a director of IFTA for three
years, where he was chair of the FinanceCommittee.

Simon Warren, FSTA
Vice President Europe
Simon Warren was headof investments at Bupa
for seven years, withresponsibility for £3.7bnof assets and £1.1bn ofdebt. Prior to that, he
was deputy treasurerand head of front officetrading, where he was responsible for alltransactional and FX hedging.
Simon is a fellow of the Association of
Certified Accountants and began his careerat Bupa in 1987 as an accountant before moving over to the treasury and investment areas,
where he utilizes his technical analysis skills.

MFTA and CFTe
Exam Dates
Certified Financial Technician(CFTe)—Level I
Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions
www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide http://www.ifta.org/public/
files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician(CFTe)—Level II
Date

20 Apr 2017

October 2017

Registration deadline 10 March 201725 Aug 2017

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Syllabus and Study Guide http://www.ifta.org/public/
files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program,
visit http://www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial TechnicalAnalysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path PreApplication Deadline

28 Feb 201731 July 2017

Application/Outline
Deadline

2 May 20172 Oct 2017

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 2017

15 Mar 2018

(Session 1) Register at
www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at
www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/MFTA/
IFTA Journal Style Guide

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 14

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSIFTAJOURNALIFTA Journal Call for Submissions
The IFTA Journal is an annual publication established by
the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It iscollated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It is an
excellent reference for anyone interested in technicalanalysis, containing a wealth of resource material.

Credibility and Recognition

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents coveringdevelopments in technical analysis in global markets.
The Journal reaches leading practitioners and students
of technical analysis throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments
impacting, either directly or indirectly, the ﬁeld oftechnical analysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in theinvestment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics
tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas oftechnical analysis and those that connect with it.

Submitting Contributions

Registration and submission of contributions is online
via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor,
Aurélia Gerber, journal@ifta.org.

.GIF or .JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF
format in case it is required for printing purposes. An
Excel spreadsheet supporting your submission may also
be included.

Language

Licenses and CopyrightContributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.

We require all submissions to include the author’s
signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of
this document.

Writing Style

Papers should be written in a thesis style.
A guidance can be found at the following link:

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

http://www.ifta.org/public/ﬁles/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

Unless another license is noted, we will assume that yourcontribution is under this license.

Referencing

Editorial Timeline

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.
The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by ﬁgure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text
format, as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in

DecemberCall for papers distributed

May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notiﬁcation of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerOctoberWorldwide distribution

December

Web publication

For more information, see our website
www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2016 Volume 23 Issue 4

page 15IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors
President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
m.elsaiid@gmail.com

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA* Financial Technical Analyst Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA* Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts site.malaysianchartist.com
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
TUNISIA—ATAT* Association Tusisienne des Analystes Technique
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com

Treasurer Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
mailto:karin.roller@vtad.deVice President Middle East and Africa; Examination Director Saleh Nasser, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@pharosholding.com
Vice President Europe Simon Warren, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
simonwarren18@gmail.com
Vice President Americas Jeanette Anne Schwarz Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. CFTe (AAPTA)
optnqueen@aol.com
Vice President Asia-Pacific Affairs Akihiro Niimi, MFTA, CFTe (NTAA)
niimia@aifam.jp
Education Director Dr. Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.de
Conference Director Mr. Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Development Director Ron William, MSTA, CMT (SAMT)
ron.william@samt-org.ch
Secretary, Development Director and Asia-Pacific Affairs Takashi Nakamura, MFTA, CFTe (NTAA)
nakamtak@mse.biglobe.ne.jp
Journal and Newsletter Director Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT)
aurelia.gerber@ifta.org* Developing

Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au

IFTA Update ScheduleMarketing and Webinar Director Tom Hicks (STA)
tom.hicks@live.co.uk

The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of Technical Analysts,
reaching more than 6,950 IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and cost-effective way tocommunicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

Staff

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
March Issue

Education articles: February 15

All other content: March 1

June Issue

Education articles: May 15

All other content: June 1

September Issue

Education articles: August 15

All other content: September 1

December Issue

Education articles: November 15

All other content: December 1

Send education article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

Executive Director Beth W. Palys, FASAE, CAE
Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Senior Graphic Designer Jon BenjaminAccounting Dawn Rosenfeld
Editor Lynne Agoston

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org