2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE

President’s Report to Colleagues

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

Member News2

2021 IFTA Conference

Education Lounge
5

Beyond the Z-Test: “GSA” Validationof a Trading System and Definition of“Persistence Validation Ratio”

13 Congratulations New CFTes
13 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
14 Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA
Board Members
15 IFTA 2020 Conference Recordings
16 Calendar-at-a-Glance
19 2020 Lifetime Achievement Award
21 IFTA Journal Call for Submissions
23 Member Societies
23 Board of Directors

Next Issue: March 2021
Submission Deadline: February 15
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submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
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The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
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International Federation of Technical Analysts
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Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

Dear IFTA Colleagues,
The world is changing
and so are we. This is myfirst introduction into the
IFTA Update as president,
and I can already lookback to an unforgettable
event this year. This year’s IFTA Annual
Conference was unique in many ways.
First of all, it was an online conference. Since
IFTA’s inception, the annual conference has
always been organized by one of our local
chapters and held in their country. But notthis year.
Second, the IFTA Annual Conference wasa solid part in financial industries schedule.
This was still true, but we also welcomed
many private analysts, investors, and traders
to our conference.
Third, the number of registrants and attendees was much higher than usual. With a totalof 4,909 registrants and 3,479 members in

the designated IFTA2020 Facebook group,
IFTA has opened the doors to a large audience. Compared to previous conferences,
this is a huge difference. Of course, there
are two reasons for this: the conference wasvirtual and attendance was free of charge.
The fourth very surprising result of the data
analysis of the conference was an unexpected regional shift. Most of us thoughtthat Europe and the United States would
deliver the majority of attendees, but theexact opposite is true. As the numbers show,
the majority of attendees were located inSoutheast Asia—namely Malaysia with 39%
and Indonesia with 25%.
Surprisingly, analysis also showed that 86%
of all registrants were IFTA nonmembers!
So, what is the conclusion from the analysis?
Of course, the shift from the West to the East
that we thought might happen one day isalready there.

Also, we can learn that IFTA has an enormous potential not only in Asia, but especially amongst private analysts, investors,
and traders.
And one last conclusion is obvious. As wewelcomed 86% nonmembers, IFTA has ahuge potential, once we become visible.
This all offers a more than positive outlook
and raises one single question: What will
happen if IFTA remains visible on a constantbasis?

Let´s find out!
All the best,

Wieland Arlt, CFTe
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 2

Member News
American Association of Professional
Technical Analysts (AAPTA)
Update for December 2020
AAPTA held its 2021 election of officers and directors.
The roster for the next year is:

Please plan to join all of us in Philadelphia. We will bedelivering more details to you each month as our plans
progress. The conference’s landing page for information
may be found at: www.iftaintheus.org. If you have suggestions for presentation topics, speakers, or sponsors you
would like to hear and see, please email Peter Mauthe
and/or Scott Fullman.

Peter Mauthe – President
Scott Fullman – Vice President
Larry McMillan – Treasurer
Jeannette Young – Secretary
Tammy Trittschuh – Director
Bob Schott – Director
Denny Noss – Director
AAPTA is busy working on the IFTA/AAPTA global conference planned for October 7–9, 2021, in Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania, USA, a historically significant city in the
United States close to Washington, D.C., and New York
City. We are working on an agenda designed for a meaningful exchange of ideas, informative speakers, and collaborative, memorable times together. With the experience of COVID, the change of leadership in Japan andthe United States, and the coming change in leadership in
Germany next year, world economies and markets promise more than a few financial surprises. Discover how
your peers around the world are profiting from changing
times at IFTA 2021.

Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica (SIAT)Over 200 experts have participated in SIAT
QuanTech 2020.
#Authentic speaking, brain has more space than the sky
The third edition of SIAT QuanTech took place online on
Thursday, October 29, moderated by Davide Bulgarelli,
SIAT president, and Annabella D'Argento, economicfinancial journalist, illustrated "live" by Jacopo Ziliotto,
and accompanied by narrator Christian Iansante, dubber,actor, and radio speaker.
What role do artificial intelligence and machine learning
play in our life and in the world of investments today?
Are they winning the challenge with traditional asset
management?

AAPTA has also started a series of member-only andmember and prospective member brainstorming sessions. These sessions are held using a zoom meeting soscreens may be shared for all to see.

The various speakers who alternated “on stage” have
tried to answer this question, sharing experiences andresearch sectors sometimes very different from eachother, similar to the "Renaissance studios" composedby artists, scientists, and craftsmen, which have always
been characteristics of SIAT events.
In particular, asset managers have exposed how artificial
intelligence is now used in cooperation and in support ofhuman intelligence to manage portfolios and the "behindthe scenes" of equity (including sectoral and thematicones focused on big data, cloud, artificial intelligence,cybersecurity, and blockchain), bond, multi-asset (alsobalanced and defensive), alternative, collective, and passive strategies for which they are responsible, focusing
on the methodologies for portfolios construction.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

Specific insights were dedicated to: Socially responsible investments that integrate ESG(Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria in
the portfolio stock picking, since they are recording astable increase, both in terms of interest, and thereforeof volumes and new regulations, and of yield;
 The market indices and benchmarks construction;
 Neuro-finance, neuroeconomics, and, more generally,
to behavioral finance;
 Quantitative technical analysis with asset allocation
models; The aerospace sector, a new emerging investment
theme.
The various points of view have helped to enrich the audience and the whole investment management industry
with precious insights to face the future challenges thatare arising, also on financial markets, with the current

page 3health emergency, which requires a forced paradigm
shift but, at the same time, speeds up the technologicalinnovation process.
Furthermore, the “Technical Analyst Awards 2020”
were awarded to Alessandro Venuti (Open category)and Lorenzo Risetti (Thesis category). Professor Achille
Fornasini, University of Brescia, was awarded the SIAT
Honorary Member nomination and plaque because of
his contribution to the spread of technical analysis, bothin the academic and professional fields.
At the end of the event, Alessandra Ceriani andAlessandro Mastrantuono of Deloitte Consulting analyzed the impact and the role of Sustainable Finance
Disclosure Regulation and of taxonomy to better seize
the challenges and opportunities of this particular market
phase, in which ESG factors are playing a key role within
the proposition of financial intermediaries specialized ininvestment services.
The event was realized thanks to the support of the following sponsorships: Amun Limited, Degroof Petercam
Asset Management, Deloitte, Exane Asset Management,
Kempen Capital Management, T. Rowe Price, William
O’Neil + Co, Aberdeen Asset Management, DWS,
Franklin Templeton, Groupama Asset Management
Sgr, HANetf, La Financière de l'Echiquier, Morningstar,
Montpensier Finance, Nordea Asset Management, Oddo
BHF Asset Management, Theam Quant Funds, Wellington
Management, FactSet, First Trust Global Portfolios,
Generali Investments, Natixis Investment Managers,
Vanguard, WisdomTree.
SIAT President Davide Bulgarelli, immediately after the
conference, commented:“Today I was on stage, but I was there to listen like theother colleagues. Personally I am happy with the manyideas I have heard, which make me go home enriched,
and with much positive feedback received, even live.
It means that I wasn’t the only one who has seized theessence of these events, organized by colleagues for colleagues. The appointment is for next year with QuanTech
2021, Academy 2021 and Investment Management
Observatory in collaboration with Deloitte Consulting:
we have great surprises in store for all!”.

The Society of Technical Analysts (STA,
United Kingdom)
The STA was excited to host a special virtual firesidechat in November with MARKETS WIZARD author JackD. Schwager and Steven Goldstein, co-founder of theAlphaMind podcasts, and will be replacing this year’s
Christmas Party with an online quiz.
The STA’s October Part 2 exam was once again held
online to resounding success. Well over 80% of thecandidates passed, and we congratulate them all. We
are delighted that this year we have two winners of the
Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize 2020—Abdullah Abbasi
and Victoria Scholar. The prize is awarded to the best
STA Diploma Part 2 examination paper written each year
if a score of 90% or above has been achieved. It can beawarded to more than one candidate as in this case.
Abdullah Abassi, a final year BSc
Economics and Finance student atUniversity College Dublin with a strong
interest in the financial markets, says,"The STA course was an excellent
learning experience and I am delighted
to be named joint winner of the 2020
Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize".

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

Victoria Scholar works at IG Group asa TV presenter, producer, and market
analyst. She previously worked infinancial journalism at CNBC andBloomberg, having started her careeron the equity trading floor at Nomura.
“Having spent a lot of time focused on
the fundamentals, the diploma taught
me a whole new way of looking at the markets throughtechnical analysis. I really enjoyed each week’s lecturesand getting to know the expert technical analysts whoteach the course as well. The exams have been extremely
helpful for my career and I am thrilled to be the joint winner of this year’s Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize.”
The STA’s advanced Diploma Part 2 Course that starts on
13 January 2021 will be held online via live Zoom webinar
and will be fully interactive, with students being able toask questions as they would in a classroom. Any students unable to watch live will be able to catch up witha recording post-event; email the STA office if you haveany questions. Provision has been made for candidates
to sit for the exam(s) in their own personal space using
Zoom. This means that students who live overseas will,
for the first, time be able to attend this CISI accredited
course and become a professional market technician.

page 4The dates remain the same for 12 evening lectures andan exam preparation session, commencing Wednesday
13 January 2021, finishing Wednesday 31 March 2021. The
sessions will be held from 6:30 pm–8:00 pm. Students
will receive login details prior to the webinar. The Diploma
Part 2 examination will take place during the daytime on
Thursday 22 April 2021.
Visit https://www.technicalanalysts.com/education/stacourses/#course2-details for more info.
We wish all our IFTA colleagues well during this challenging time. Keep in touch with us via our online blog
and follow us on twitter @STA_ORG, LinkedIn or like our
Facebook page.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 5

Education Lounge

Beyond the Z-Test: “GSA” Validation of a Trading System and Definitionof “Persistence Validation Ratio”
A quantitative technique for measuring the robustness of a model on unknown historical data.
By Giovanni Trombetta

Classic validation architectures
In this article, we intend to demonstrate how it is possible
to make the objective evaluation of a trading or investment model on unknown data. The challenge is not to
use the best known statistical methods of comparison
between populations, such as the T-Test, the Z-Test, the
ANOVA Test, or the Chi-Square Test, which can be usedwith a couple of lines in Python, thanks to the "Scipy"
library. Instead, we will opt for the definition of a set ofproprietary indicators that are an evolution of those published in the book Trading Strategies with Python, published by Hoepli.
Typically, a system is designed and codified on the basisof historical data that summarize the behavior of one ormore financial instruments. An important prerequisite
is that the observation period is sufficiently long andthat it contemplates different trend phases (uptrend anddowntrend) and volatility (high and low variance). This is
to avoid that particular market conditions can be transferred to the model we are synthesizing. Once the designphase is over, the same model is normally applied to newdata, to assess whether it is capable of generating results
consistent with the past. Only in the positive case is it
possible to assume the "persistence" of the model andtherefore apply for the operational phase in real money.

The one just described is a methodology that is based on
the definition of a static architecture of "In Sample" and"Out of Sample," which draws its origins from the "training period" and "testing period" typical of the methodsof Machine Learning.

approach has made it possible to minimize the "incubation" period (if not eliminate it) and to free us from theparticular type of market intercepted by the aggregate
In Sample and Out of Sample periods (Figure 2).

There are several variations to adequately aggregate
data, and it is possible, for example, to repeat and alternate periods of In Sample and Out of Sample in more
complex structures (Figure 1).

Figure 2: GSA Architecture of Type E

Figure 1: Validation Architectures

During the speech that I had the honor of giving in 2017
on the occasion of the IFTA Annual Conference in Milan,
I presented the GSA architecture ("Gandalf Segmented
Architecture" equivalent to type E architecture). ThisTo understand this type of approach in detail, let's see apractical example: let's take the hourly series of the Gold
Future Continuous and buy a contract when the maximum
at 23 hours is exceeded (Figure 3). It is a crude breakout
strategy, which is used to understand whether or notthere is bullish market inertia on a particular financial
instrument. We divide the available chronology (from 1
January 2007 to 31 October 2020) in eight In Sample
periods of 5,000 bars each and in as many Out of Sample
periods (Figure 3).

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

page 6

Education Lounge
We close the operations at the opening of the 23rd bar (exchange time), or after 10 hours
from the entrance. We do not allow more than one trade per day. Figure 5 details themain performance report metrics.

Figure 3: In Sample and Out of Sample Periods

We have in fact eliminated the incubation period, associating the entire validation of themodel with the possibility of obtaining congruent results in In Sample and Out of Sample.

Analysis of the aggregate period in In Sample
We code the strategy using a backtest engine written in Python (Figure 4).

Figure 5: Metrics of the performance report in the aggregate In Sample period
Figure 4: Python Strategy CodeIFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

The first data tell us of a positive dynamic, which is also confirmed on a graphic level(Figure 6) by a growing equity line (our analysis remains qualitative at this stage).

page 7

Education Lounge
Note how the strategy can only work at regular intervals defined by the In Sample
periods of the GSA architecture. We now represent the trade distribution obtained ina histogram (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Trade Distribution in the Aggregate In Sample Period
Figure 6: Open Equity Line in the Aggregate In Sample Period

This will be our footprint to compare against the Out of Sample distribution. The effectiveness of the strategy in In Sample is evidenced by the slight asymmetry in the positive
territory of the curve itself, and by the positive value of the 50th percentile.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

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Education Lounge

Analysis of the aggregate period in Out of Sample
We therefore proceed to evaluate the same strategy in Out of Sample and obtain theperformance metrics and the equity line in sequence (Figure 8 and Figure 9).

Figure 9: Open Equity Line in the Aggregate Out of Sample Period

The curve appears more degraded than the previous one in the 2012–2019 interval.
Still, some key metrics seem to have improved: the average trade, which guarantees
coverage of fixed costs, is wider (a system on Gold Future must guarantee an average
trade of over $100 per contract, but here we are facing a raw rule, without the aid of
any operational filter).
We draw the trade distribution also in this second case (Figure 10).

Figure 8: Metrics of the Performance Report in the Aggregate Out Sample Period

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

Figure 10: Trade Distribution in the Aggregate Out of Sample Period

From a first visual analysis, the distribution obtained seems to retrace the characteristicsof that relating to the operations in In Sample.

Comparative analysis
At this point, we are able to overlay the two distributions obtained (Figure 11).

page 9

Education Lounge

Figure 11: Trade Distribution in the Aggregate In Sample and Out of Sample Periods

The two distribution bells seem almost overlapping, and this is certainly a good signthat tells us how the strategy has not changed behavior in the two aggregate periods—
a sign that we have probably intercepted a causal dynamic that drives market inertia
after each "level jump."
But how to make this comparison numerical, in order to untangle ourselves even incases where such evidence is less immediate?
To answer this question, as mentioned at the beginning of this article, let's move awayfrom known statistical methodologies and try to take a new path. We examine the distribution of the trades in the two intervals and determine the percentile thresholds (forexample on 11 divisions). At this point we compare each In Sample percentile thresholdwith the corresponding one in Out of Sample and record how many times the second
threshold is lower than the first and vice versa. Finally, we add up these counters andcalculate their percentage of the total samples (in this case 11). The ratio between thefirst indicator and the second will give us a value whose center of equilibrium will be
the unit value. In formulas:Gandalf Persistence Distribution Index (GPDI_IS): GPDI_IS
Gandalf Persistence Distribution Index (GPDI_OOS): GPDI_OOS
Gandalf Persistence Distribution Ratio (GPDR): GPDI_OOS / GPDI_ISIFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

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Education Lounge

Figure 12: Gandalf Persistence Distribution Ratio with 0% Tolerance and 11 Samples

Figure 13: Gandalf Persistence Distribution Ratio with 10% tolerance and 11 Samples

In our case, we obtain a GDPR of 1.75 which testifies to a good “persistence of theresults” and confirms the first qualitative evaluation made on the “shape” of the distributions. Any value equal to or greater than the unit, in fact, is the statistical proof thatthe swarm of trades in Out of Sample has a similar or better distribution than that in In
Sample.

The GDPR went from 1.75 to 2.67, with over 72% of the percentiles sampled in Out of
Sample higher than In Sample. As a last test, we try to double the sampling frequency(21 percentile samples).

Since a trade model is obtained by modeling both the signal and the noise componentof the history, we allow a percentage of degradation between the In Sample and Out
of Sample performances, based on the fact that the noise component will tend to varyfrom period to period. Let's try to take this factor into account in our calculations bychanging the GDPR function. We set a tolerance of 10% on the performance of the In
Sample and recalculate all the metrics.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 11

Education Lounge

Beyond the Z-Test continued

Putting the pieces together
We are finally able to design the project architecture: In Sample training periods in yellow and the Out of Sample testing periods in green. Also in green, the equity line of
the strategy applied to the entire period.

Figure 14: Gandalf Persistence Distribution Ratio with 10% Tolerance and 21 Samples
Figure 15: Equity Line of the Strategy for the Entire Historical Period

In the latter case, the GPDR goes from 2.67 to 2.5. In general, as we increase thesampling frequency, we also increase the precision of our analysis, up to the extreme
case where the samples equal or exceed the number of trades of the distribution. The
recommendation is to never sample more than 1/10 of the total number of trades.
We have therefore found a statistical method to correctly compare the In Sample andOut of Sample trade distributions: values below unity will warn us for suspicion of overfitting on the In Sample period, while a value greater than unity will testify to a propertyof robustness of the results obtained. The analysis could continue, varying the trading
variables and producing multiple trade pairs in In Sample and Out of Sample. For each
set we will be able to calculate the persistence metrics, measuring the variance of all
the GDPRs.

The trend is growing monotonous without particular and prolonged variations in behavior, testifying what we have achieved with the GPDR. Figure 16 shows the same curvewith the associated trend of the Gold Future.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3
Beyond the Z-Test continued

page 12

Education Lounge
Giovanni Trombetta, CFTA, is the head of research and development on the Gandalf
Project. He is an electronics engineer with experience as a radio access network
engineer, an expert in radiant systems and artificial intelligence algorithms, a professional trading systems developer, a quant trader, and a trainer.
Giovanni has been a Professional Associate and a member of the ScientificCommittee in SIAT since 2016 and became an IFTA board member in October 2019. In 2017,he was a speaker at the IFTA Annual Conference in Milan. Giovanni is the founder and chief
investment officer of Rocket Capital Investment, an innovative startup based in Singapore. His
articles can be found on Milano Finanza, in Traders magazine, and in the international journalTechnical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. He is about to publish his first book on Python and
Quantitative Analysis for Hoepli.

Figure 16: Equity Line of the Strategy for the Entire Historical Period and Gold Futures
Continuous Chart

The bullish strategy manages to be profitable both during the uptrends and during
the downtrends of the Gold. The one described is an unconventional validation methodology called GSA (Gandalf Segmented Architecture), endorsed by the comparisonof trade distributions in In Sample and Out of Sample, using the GPDR indicator. The
use of this indicator is possible with all validation configurations other than the GSA(including Walk Forward Analysis). All the tables are produced with Python, and theelaborations are obtained with a backtesting engine coded with the Pandas, Numpy,
and Numba libraries.
Hoping to have provided a useful contribution, we wish everyone good work.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 13Congratulations New CFTes!

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates

Mahmoud Abd ELshafy (ESTA)
Ahmed Abdellatif Mohammed (ESTA)
Hassan Abdullah (STA)
Ehab Ahmad Elmashad (ESTA)
Ayman Amr Hussien (ESTA)
Kleanthis Avraamides (STA)
Ahmed Baher Metawea (ESTA)
Khairul Akmal Bin Ab Kadir (MATA)
Mohammad Azman Bin Abdul Subhan(MATA)
Ahmad Shazwi Bin Hamim (MATA)
Dr. Muhammad Arif Bin Mokhtar (STA)
Marc Borghans
Hisham Elsayed Elnozahi (ESTA)
Mohamed Fawzy ElSayed Ali AbdAlla(ESTA)Min Than Htut (STA)
Ahmed Ibrahim Fouad (ESTA)
Aakriti Jhunjhunwala (STA)
Avnish Jhunjhunwala
Kyriakos Kadis (STA)
Khaled Khalil Assy (ESTA)
Pooya William Khamooshi (STA)

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I

Wael M AbdelSabour (ESTA)
Mahmoud Maher Nafea (ESTA)
Ismail Mahmoud Abdul Meguid (ESTA)
Michael Michaelides (STA)
Mohammed Mohyeldin Hassan (ESTA)
Zachary Moore
Asma Binti Nasarudin (STA)
Giorgos Nathanael (STA)
Hebatallah Osama Salem (ESTA)
Laplusrada Pensuk
Stelios Photiou (STA)
Taro Rajpal
Maha Saeed Ragab (ESTA)
Jeevainderan Sagathevan (STA)
Hazem Salah El Din Mohamed (ESTA)
Ahmed Samy Abou El Ela (ESTA)
Mohamed Sayed Mahmoud (ESTA)
Robert Szucs (STA)
Andreas Thrasyvoulou (STA)John Tuohy (STA)
Mohamed Wagih Abdel Bary (ESTA)
Asanka Weeratunge (STA)
Hsiao De Yeh (STA)

Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II

Exam 1

Exam 2

Exam dates

22 Apr 2021

TBA Oct 2021

Registration deadline

5 Mar 2021

TBA Sept 2021

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

Session 1

Session 2

28 Feb 2021

31 July 2021

Application/Outline Deadline

2 May 2021

2 Oct 2021

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 2021

15 Mar 2022

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 14Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA Board Members(Term October 2020–October 2023)
Wieland Arlt, CFTe,
IFTA President

Dr. Gregor Bauer, VTAD,IFTA Examination Director

Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA,
IFTA Director

Wieland Arlt is a trader, trading coach, and trainer who
conveys trading approaches
that are easy to understandand implement. He is theauthor of the bestsellingbooks Risk and Money
Management – Simplified(German), Risk and Money Management for
Day and Swing Trading (English), and 55
Reasons to Become a Trader (German), as wellas numerous articles in leading financial magazines. He is a sought-after speaker and expert
at trader fairs.

Dr. Gregor Bauer works as
an independent asset manager for private clients andcompanies in Germany. He
is also the president of theGerman A ssociation ofTechnical Analysts (www.
VTAD.de). Gregor authored
two books on technical analysis and covers aregular technical outlook on German TV. He
also writes articles on a regular basis for leading financial newspapers. He is specialized inapplying advanced candlestick techniques incombinat ion w i t h t radi t ional wes tern
techniques.

Yukitoshi Higashino is chief
strategist of the Equit y
Research Team at DZHFinancial Research, aninvestment information service arm located in Tokyo of
Shanghai DZH Limited
Group. He leads development of technical strategies for client securities firms dealing in futures, ETFs, and CFDs.
His main responsibilities range from analysis
of major indices of the Asian and world markets and can extend to individual stocks. Prior
to this, he was a stock lending trader for foreign securities houses and a treasury stock
trader for Mizuho Trust Bank. He was also an
equity trader and a market analyst at a securities firm.

Nominated by: VTAD (Germany)

Wieland is a board member of the Vereinigung
Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. and isin charge of the chapter in Hamburg. He holds
a degree in economics.

Nominated by: VTAD (Germany)

Gregor holds lectures on portfolio management and technical analysis at various elite
universities in Germany and Liechtenstein andruns seminars and workshops on technicalanalysis for institutional investors.
Together with a partner, he runs a successful,computer-based, medium-term ETF trading
system, which is now also open for institutional
investors.

Nominated by: NTAA (Japan)

For many years, he has served as one of
NTAA’s board members and acted as an IFTA
liaison, and he has attended several past IFTA
conferences. Currently, he serves as NTAA’svice chair and as general manager of the CFTe
Education Department. He has served as one
of IFTA’s Education Committee members in thepast and made presentations at IFTA conferences in Vancouver, Lugano, Berlin, and Cairo.

Jeanette Young, CFP®, CMT, MS,
CFTe, IFTA VP of Americas,
2021 Conference Chair
Nominated by: AAPTA (USA)Jeanette Young has been aWall Street professional
since 1981, when she began
her professional career with
Thomson McKinnon
S e curi t ies . H er c are er
includes portfolio management, syndication, option
strategist, hedger, operations principle, bondprincipal, pit trader, and general market trader.
Jeanette worked for the New York Board ofTrade and later ICE, where she wrote, produced, and aired two daily market reports
covering the financials, currencies, and softs.
She has been a frequent guest on FOX, CNBC,
Bloomberg, Yorba TV, CNN, and others. She
was a market maker in the FINEX ring (Russell
2000 ring) and became an expert hedger.
Jeanette was the first director of the CMT program for the Market Technicians Associationand is the past president of the American
Association of Professional Technical Analysts,
where she continues to serve on the boardof directors. She is the author of the Option
Queen Letter, a weekly newsletter, and is amember of ICE, COMEX, and CHX holdings.
She is also a member of the Adelphi University
Presidents Counsel.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 15IFTA 2020 Conference Recordings
The IFTA conference recorded sessions are now available online for member colleagues (members of IFTA societies). The following recorded sessions are available.
1. Do Market’s Face a Potential “Minsky” Moment
Collapse?, Ron William

10. The Power of Cross Asset Confirmations, JeanFrançois Owczarczak

19. Momentum Investment Using ETFs, Dr. Bruce
Vanstone

2. Active Versus Passive Indexing, John Bollinger

11. Building a Money Printing Machine with AI, Raul
Glavan20.Time-Series Analysis of Japanese Mutual Fund
Performance – Considerations on Asset Flow andReturn, Koki Nozawa

3. System Thinking – The Holy Grail to Dealing witha Pandemic or any Other Crisis, Dr. Van K. Tharp
4. How to Catch the Big Swings with One Simple
Strategy, Wieland Arlt
5. Back-Testing Relative Performance and Evaluating
Technical versus Macroeconomic and Corporate
Research, Tim McCullough
6. Elliott Waves – Bringing the Theory into the Daily
Trading, Rüdiger Born
7. Incorporating Wyckoff Method Analysis into
Portfolio Construction, Roman Bogomazov
8. What Makes for World Champion Traders?, Larry
Williams
9. A Treasury of Wall Street Wisdom – The Wisdomof Past Master Market Technicians Applied to the
Future, Linda Raschke

12. Better Investing Using Market Effects, Roland
Jegen
13. Spot Market Trends with Heikin Ashi, Stefano
Gianti14. The End of Alpha – Risk Factors Theory Revisited,Thierry Bechu
15. The Supercycle Top and Deflation, Murray Gunn

21. How to Build Investment Strategies with AI and
Machine Learning, Dr. Kei Nakagawa
22.Shall we Focus on Bitcoin in an Uncertain andUnstable World Environment?, Dr. Hiwon Yoon
23. Using Volatility to Determine the Trend of
Securities and Markets, Mathew Verdouw

16. Successfully trading Options in Volatile Markets,
Dr. Gregor Bauer

24.Sequence of Volume Spread Analysis – A BarCounting Method of Potential Reversal, Yoan
Zhang

17. Power Hour Team by AATI – Smart Trading withTechnical Analysis, AATI (Indonesia)Team

25.Trade What You See, Not What You Believe, Daryl
Guppy

18. How to profit $30,000 from Gold trading with Sun
Capricorn Cycle and 1.618 Divergence Fibonacci,
Gema Goeyardi

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 16

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

Topic

STANZ

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are

ATAA

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://ataa.asn.au/

Monthly Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA

CSTA
Chapters(Canada)VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://csta.org/

Monthly Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the

STA

VariesOnline or
One Moorgate Place,
Chartered Accountants Hall,
1 Moorgate Place
LondonVarieshttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors arewelcome, first visit free.

and plan social and educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry
professionals and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also playa vital role in their communities by connecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
second Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

2021
Jan

12

STA (UK) Monthly Meeting

STA/ACI UK Fundamentals vs TechnicalAnalysts Panel

Webinar6.30pmhttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

Feb

9

STA (UK)Monthly Meeting

STA (UK)

To be confirmed

Webinar6.30pmhttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 1 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

1

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 1

STA (UK)

NA

OnlineAll day

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/exam-information/

5

Deadline to register for Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) II held on
22 April 2021

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

9

STA (UK) Monthly Meeting

STA (UK)

To be confirmed

Online6.30pmhttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Session 2 paper deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

13

STA (UK) Monthly Meeting

STA (UK)

To be confirmed

Online6.30pmhttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/exam-information/

22

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

22

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 2

STA (UK)

NA

OnlineAll day

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

Mar

Apr

Continued on page 17

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 17

Calendar continued
May

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II - registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

13

STA (UK) Monthly Meeting

STA (UK)

To be confirmed

Webinar6.30pmhttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

June

No events scheduled at this time

July

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Aug

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Sept
Oct

Nov

Dec

No events scheduled at this time2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

7–9

IFTA 2021 Annual Conference–Hosted by AAPTA (USA)

IFTA/
AAPTA

VariesPhiladelphia, PA USA

TBA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Session 1 paper deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

23

IFTA Virtual Annual General Meeting (AGM)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

TBA

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

Varies or online

TBA

1

IFTA 2022 Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/
publicatons/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

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IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 19

Congratulations 2020 Lifetime Achievement Awardee:
J. Welles Wilder Jr.
J. Welles Wilder Jr. was born in the town of Norris,
Tennessee, during the Great Depression but grew up inGreensboro, North Carolina. His working life started as amechanical engineer, but he also ventured into real estatedevelopment. After his partners bought him out of his realestate business in 1972, Wilder turned his attention to thecommodities market.
Wilder focused on developing mathematical formulae thatwould lead to profitable trading systems in highly leveraged
securities. The bulk of his endeavors were revealed in his
book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, which
was published in 1978 and established Wilder's reputation as a leading technical analyst. The book remains an important reference for both stock and futures traders andintroduced six technical indicators that Wilder used as standalone technical trading
systems. These were:







The Commodity Selection Index (CSI)The Directional Movement Index (DMI)The Parabolic SAR
The Relative Strength Index (RSI)The Swing Index
The Volatility Index

Of these, the DMI, the Parabolic SAR, and the RSI became the most significant.
Wilder also published The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters is Profit in 1987
and The Delta Phenomenon in 1991, as well as several articles on trading. In addition,
Wilder made several appearances on radio and television programs and conducted
technical trading seminars in Asia, Australia, Canada, the United States, and Europe.

About the Award
The Lifetime Achievement Award
honors the career achievements ofa technical analysis practitioner who
has made extraordinary contributions
to the field of technical analysis. The
recipient will exemplify and promote themission of IFTA through education andresearch. The honor will be considered
for a technician who has demonstrated
the highest standards of personal andprofessional conduct and whom his/herpeers and the investment community atlarge hold in great regard.

Prior recipients:
2019 Robert R. Prechter Jr.
2018 Ir. Abdul Wahid Bin Jantan(posthumously)2017 Sergio Paolino
2016 No award given
2015 John A. Bollinger
2014 John J. Murphy
2013 Dr. Henry O. Pruden

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 20IFTA 2021 Journal Now Available!
We are pleased to announce that the2021 IFTA Journal is now available forviewing and download from the IFTA
website.

Articles•"...despite the pandemic, there is still
an IFTA Journal. Not business as
usual, but nevertheless as normal
as possible."—Dr. Rolf Wetzer, CFTe,
MFTA, Journal Editor

The Ripples Effect: A Clearer View forMarket Action and Price Patterns, by
Mohamed Ashraf Mahfouz, CETA, CFTe,
MFTA•

Forecasting Major World Indices on
Ichimoku, by Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA•

Stock Trends and Trend-Based
Trading Strategies—Backed by LargeScale Back-Testing Implemented by
Automated Software System, by Kevin
Luo•

Simple and Effective Market Timing
With Tactical Asset Allocation, by
Lewis A. Glenn, Ph.D.

MFTA Papers•

Number-Based Sentiment Indicators,
by Przemysław Smoliński, MFTA•

The Noise Trend, by Mohamed M.
Khedr, CFTe, MFTA•

Determination of Time Target Zones
for Price Targets of Classic Price
Patterns, by Momen Atef El Shayal,
CFTe, MFTA•

Emerging Currencies as Equity
Earthquake Indicator, by Ron Albert
Marcelino Acoba, CFTe, CMT, MFTA•

Coefficient Moving Average, by
Mohamed Fawzy ElSayed Ali AbdAlla,
CETA, CFTe, MFTA

NET return 2020
Risk ‘moderate’

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NAAIM Papers

A special thanks to Dr. Rolf Wetzer,
CFTe, MFTA, Editor of the IFTA Journal
Inside this issue:

23%+Book Review•“Weak leadership can wreck
the soundest strategy; forcefulexecution of even a poor plan canoften bring victory.”—Sun Tzu

How the Average Investor Can Use
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IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

page 21

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONS
Submitting Contributions

Licenses and CopyrightLanguage

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents covering developments in technical analysis in global markets. The
Journal reaches leading practitioners and students oftechnical analysis throughout the world.

Writing Style

Unless another license is noted, we will assume thatyour contribution is under this license.

The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

Referencing

The IFTA Journal is an annual publication establishedby the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It
is collated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It contains
a wealth of resource material and is an excellent reference for anyone interested in technical analysis.

Credibility and Recognition

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments impacting, either directly or indirectly, the field of technicalanalysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in the investment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas of technical analysis and those that connect with it.

Registration and submission of contributions is
online via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor at journal@ifta.org.
Contributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.
Pa p e r s s h o u l d b e w r i t t e n i n a t h e s i s s t y l e.
A guidance can be found at the following link:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

We require all submissions to include the author’s signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of thisdocument.

Editorial Timeline
DecemberCall for papers distributed

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further, all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.

May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerOctober

Conference distribution

November

Web publication

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by figure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text format,
as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in .GIF or.JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF format
in case it is required for printing purposes. An Excel
spreadsheet supporting your submission may also be
included.

For more information, see our website:www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

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IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 3

IFTA Member Societies

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.ataindia.in
INDIA—ATMA* Association of Technical Market Analysts www.atma.ac
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com

page 23

Board of Directors
President Wieland Arlt, CFTe (VTAD)
wieland.arlt@ifta.org
Treasurer and Website Director Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
karin.roller@vtad.de
Secretary and Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Vice President Middle East and Africa and Immediate Past President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
mohamed.elsaiid@ifta.org
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Vice President The Americas and 2021 Conference Chair Jeanette Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. (AAPTA)
optnqueen@aol.com
Education Director Saleh Nasser, CFTe, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@ifta.org
Examination Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe, (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.deMarketing and Webinar Director Tom Hicks, MSTA (STA)
tom.hicks@live.co.uk
Development Director Ron William, MSTA, CFTe, CMT (SAMT)
ron.william@ifta.org
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Director Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe (MATA)
nmihsan@gmail.com* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule

The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
March Issue

All content due February 15

June Issue

All content due May 15

September Issue

All content due August 15

December Issue

All content due November 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

Director Giovanni Trombetta, CFTA, Electronic Engineer (SIAT)
giovanni.trombetta@gandalfproject.com
Director Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA (NTAA)
higashino3z@gmail.com

Staff

Executive Director Charles W.L. Deale, FASAE, CAE
Senior Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Senior Marketing Director Julie Hill
Production Manager Maryia Alenchyk
Managing Editor Lynne Agoston
Director of Accounting Services Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org