MIRAI Corporation (3476)
Poised to benefit from a positive operating
environment
FP4/24 results update

16 July 2024

Share price: ¥44,850

Market cap: ¥85.5bn• Exceeding company’s estimate – FP4/24 results beat company
guidance for NOI (net operating income). NOI increased due to lowerthan-expected repair costs as a result of changing hotel operators,
improved utility expenses, and higher-than-expected hotel rental
income. Cost management was achieved through effective asset
management and support from the Mitsui Group, which provided
enhanced bargaining power for various asset running costs despite
inflationary pressures. As a result, the expense ratio remained at
32.2%. Costs of borrowing were 0.66% in FP4/24 (0.61% in FP10/23
and 0.59% in FP4/23), despite a rising interest rate environment,
reflecting high creditworthiness supported by Mitsui & Co’ssponsorship.
Source: Bloomberg

Cost efficiency amidst inflation• Upgrading our earnings estimates – we upgrade our earnings
estimates for FY10/24 and beyond. We expect expense ratios torevert to the pre-COVID historical level and remain steady at 33%
between FY10/24 and FY10/26. We remain bullish on operating
revenue and NOI expansion in the long term. We adjust our DPU and
EPU estimates, reflecting dilution associated with the 5th PO carriedout in November 2023 (¥5.3bn raised from issuance of 136,000 units).
• Valuations – on our revised estimates, the shares are trading on
P/NAV FY10/25 of 0.72x and a dividend yield of 5.9%.

Year-end
Operating revenue (¥bn)
NOI (¥bn)
NP (¥bn)
EPU (¥)DPU (¥)
Sales growth YoY (%)
NOI growth YoY (%)
NP growth YoY (%)
EPU growth YoY (%)
DPU growth YoY (%)
P/NAV (x)PER(x)
Distribution yield (%)
AFFO yield (%)
FFO/Unit
FFO payout (%)
AFFO payout ratio (%)

FY10/22
10.94
7.43
4.57
2,579
2,580
+8.5
+11.9
+8.4
+1.7
+1.7
0.88
17.4
5.8
7.3
3,250
79.4
79.4

FY10/23 FY10/24E FY10/25E FY10/26E
12.05
7.43
4.60
2,597
2,520
+10.2
-0.1
+0.7
+0.7
-2.3
0.85
17.3
5.6
6.5
3,149
80.0
80.0

12.85
8.61
4.93
2,586
2,560
+6.6
+16.0
+7.2
-0.4
+1.6
0.72
17.3
5.7
6.7
3,090
82.9
82.9

13.25
8.88
5.09
2,667
2,667
+3.1
+3.1
+3.1
+3.1
+4.2
0.72
16.8
5.9
7.2
3,221
82.8
82.8

14.67
9.83
5.63
2,952
2,952
+10.7
+10.7
+10.7
+10.7
+10.7
0.66
15.2
6.6
7.8
3,565
82.8
82.8

Source: Company, Astris Advisory (estimates)

1

Price PerformanceAbs (%)
Rel (%)

YTD
+3.2
-15.9

1M
+0.8
-4.7

3M
-1.6
-6.8

12M
-3.3
-25.5

Company sector
REITS-Diversified
Office REITs (GICS)

Stock data
Price (¥)
Mkt cap (¥bn)
Mkt cap ($m)
52-week range (¥)
Shares O/S (m)Average daily value ($m)
Free float (%)
Foreign shareholding (%)
TickerExchange
Net Debt/Equity (x)FFO leverage (x)BBG BUY│HOLD│SELL

44,85085.5
539.5
42,350-47,900
1.9
1.8
99.0
16.1
3476
TSE
1.0
6.5
0│0│0
Source: Bloomberg

Business Overview

MIRAI Corporation is a mid-sized, diversified J-REIT jointly owned
by Mitsui & Co. and IDERA Capital Partners.

Astris-Sustainability ESG rating
Reference Ratings
MSCI
Sustainalytics
Refinitiv
S&P Global
Bloomberg
CDP

N/A
N/A
N/A
1.0
1.28
N/A

Next events

FP10/24 results December 2024
Tel: +81 3 6868 8797
Email: Corporateresearch@astrisadvisory.com

This report has been commissioned and paid forby the company

Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Recent results
FP4/24 NOI exceeded the company’s expectations due to variable
rent hikes for hotels and impressive cost control with effective asset
management skills
Key financials(¥bn)

14th FP
4/23

16th FP
4/24

YoY (%)

Operating revenue
Real estate expenses
Net operating income (NOI)
Other expenses - total
Net income

6.31
2.01
3.68
1.23
2.45

5.89
1.89
3.99
1.75
2.24

-6.7
-5.6
+8.7
+42.5
-8.3

DPU
FFO payout ratio (%)

1,305
73.9

1,150
72.7

-11.9

16th FP
4/24
Guidance
5.86
2.02
3.85
1.73
2.11
1,150
70.0

17th FP
18th FP
10/24
4/25
Guidance Guidance
6.15
6.08
2.09
1.96
4.06
4.13
1.80
1.82
2.26
2.31
1,185
73.8

1,210
73.8

Source: Company

Office revenue is expected to remain solid whilst retail and hotel are
expanding
Per business segment(¥bn)

Operating revenue
Lease business revenue
OfficeRetailHotel
Residential
OthersOther lease business revenue
Gain on sales of real estate
properties

14th FP
4/23

16th FP
4/24

YoY (%)

16th FP
4/24
Guidance

17th FP
10/24
Guidance

18th FP
4/25
Guidance

6.31

5.89

-6.7

5.86

6.15

6.08

2.31
1.15
0.73
0.01
0.45
1.03
0.63

2.38
1.25
0.85
0.07
0.45
0.89
0.00

+3.2
+8.7
+16.6
+490.9-13.9-100.0

2.38
1.21
0.81
0.07
0.46
0.94
0.00

2.37
1.34
0.89
0.07
0.46
1.03
0.00

2.42
1.28
0.95
0.07
0.46
0.91
0.00

Source: Company

Key highlights
FP4/24 results highlighted improving operating environments across all asset types andimpressive cost management, leading to higher NOI than guidance.
The company initially expected to achieve the DPU target for FP4/24,in part by utilizing
retained earnings. However, it was able to meet its target without tapping into retained
earnings against a backdrop of positive performance. Furthermore, profit (EPU) exceeding
guidance of ¥1,150 and was added to internal reserves as future provisions. The company
announced DPU targets of ¥1,185 for FP10/24 and ¥1,210 for FP4/25, that it expects tomeet without having to draw down on retained earnings. Retained earnings (¥188m) will
be maintained at the current level to respond to any unexpected cost inflation and NAV
dilution should circumstances require.
MIRAI has been reconstructing its portfolio to increase weighting for hotels with variable
rents. This will allow MIRAI to better capture upside from variable rents due to upward
pressure on hotel rents on the back of strong inbound and travel demand in Japan. Also,
about 45% of the portfolio has tenancy contracts expiring by 2027, providing opportunities
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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

to set higher rents at tenancy renewal. With such characteristics, MIRAI’s portfolio has
become increasingly resilient and can offset negative earnings impact from higher interest
rates.

The following are highlights by asset type:•

Office – improving office occupancy rates
Larger offices located in the seaside area such as Shinagawa Seaside Parktower
and Tokyo Front Terrace saw occupancy rates trending above average occupancy
rates in the area. Although longer free rent periods are often set for new leasing
properties, rental revenue is expected to increase after the end of the free rent
period. We continue to view MIRAI’s mid-sized office buildings as well positioned
against an excess supply of large office buildings expected in 2025 as mid-sized
offices are expected to see limited new supply and the locations of outside ofcentral Tokyo.

•

Commercial properties – Positive momentum continues
Commercial properties are expected to enjoy recovering consumption on the backof a post-COVID economic normalization and inbound demand. MIRAI isconsidering more proactive investments in urban commercial properties tocapture a recovering trend in mobility and consumption. In addition, the company
does not rule out purchasing commercial properties with fixed rents as long as
valuations are reasonable.

•

Hotel – Positive momentum continues
The operating environment is trending positively. Construction costs continued toincrease, limiting new supply of budget-type hotels offering lower price points.
Furthermore, inbound demand continued to be strong. As a result, we believe
MIRAI will be able to increase variable rents. MIRAI plans to expand variable rent
contracts going forward, which will increase the upside even further.

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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Occupancy rates trend strongly above 97% for all asset types.
Occupancy rates by asset type (%)

OfficeRetailHotel

Others

100
99
98

97
96
95
94
FP4/21

FP4/22

FP4/23

FP4/24

Notes: Mi Nara is included in others in FP4/21 and FP4/22. Occupancy rates for others in these periods are calculated by taking the
average occupancy rates of other properties including Mi Nara. Mi Nara is added to Retail from FP4/23.
Source: Company

MIRAI’s occupancy rates are trending higher than comparable officebuildings in seaside areas
Occupancy rates of MIRAI’s larger office buildings (%)
100

95

90

85

80
FP4/21

FP4/22

FP4/23

FP4/24

Shinagawa Seaside Parktower
Tokyo Front Terrace
Shinagawa Seaside area (as of end April 2024)
Tennozu area (as of end April 2024)
Source: Company

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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

MIRAI’s portfolio is getting more benefits from geographicaldiversification
MIRAI’s portfolio by location (%)

Other areas

Other areas

17.2

13.5

FP4/24FP4/21

82.8

86.5

Three metropolitan areas

Three metropolitan areas

Source: Company

Portfolio weighting shifted away from office to hotel
MIRAI’s portfolio by location (%)

100
90
80

7.8

9.2

9.5

9.4
1.3

8.8
1.2

19.0

17.2

16.1

15.6

18.3

17.8

19.1

21.7

20.9

21.0

55.4

54.5

52.6

52.8

50.7

FP4/20FP4/21

FP4/22

FP4/23

FP4/24

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

OfficeRetailHotel

Residential

Others

Source: Company

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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Unrealized gain margins remain high after the acquisition of new
assets
Unrealized gain margins (%)

10
8.4

9
8
7
6

5.6

5.6

6.2

6.3

8.8

8.6

7.4

6.8

5
4
3
2
1
0
FP4/20 FP10/20 FP4/21 FP10/21 FP4/22 FP10/22 FP4/23 FP10/23 FP4/24

Source: Company

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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Astris earnings estimates and key
assumptions
We have revised our earnings estimates reflecting the following:•

Ability to contain cost inflation through leveraging the Mitsui & Co sponsorship•

Continous expense control will lead to steady expense ratios and higher NOI

Our key earnings forecasts are as follows:
Astris Advisory earnings estimates
Year-end

FY10/24E FY10/24E
OLD
NEW

FY10/25E
OLD

FY10/25E
NEW

FY10/26E
OLD

FY10/26E
NEW

Revenue (¥bn)
YoY (%)

12.85
+6.6

12.85
+6.6

13.25
+3.1

13.25
+3.1

14.67
+10.7

14.67
+10.7

NOI (¥bn)
YoY (%)NOI Margin (%)
NP (¥bn)
YoY (%)

7.64
+2.9
59.5
4.80
+4.4

8.61
+16.0
67.0
4.93
+7.2

7.92
+3.6
59.8
4.98
+3.6

8.88
+3.1
67.0
5.09
+3.1

9.02
+13.9
61.5
5.67
+13.9

9.83
+10.7
67.0
5.63
+10.7

EPU (¥)YoY (%)

2,711
+4.4

2,586
-0.4

2,810
+3.6

2,667
+3.1

3,200
+13.9

2,952
+10.7

DPU (¥)YoY (%)

2,575
+2.2

2,560
+1.6

2,650
+2.9

2,667
+4.2

3,100
+17.0

2,952
+10.7

Notes: EPU and DPU were adjusted, reflecting the 5th PO carried out in November 2023 with an issuance of 129,500 units.
Source: Astris Advisory

The core assumptions for our estimates are as follows:•

Revenue growth – single-digit revenue growth expectations in FY10/24 and FY10/25
followed by double-digit growth in FY10/26. We believe internal growth from office
operations will be the most important driver for growth given more than 50% of theportfolio is offices.

•

Profitability – an improvement in NOI margin with increasing revenue YoY andeffective expense control; internal growth will drive a margin recovery.

•

DPU – the company is guiding for a ¥1,300 (semi-annual) DPU target in the current
medium-term management plan running through the end of 2025. We expect DPU
target to be met primarly through internal growth combined with external growth.

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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Summary
MIRAI Corporation (“MIRAI”) is a diversified J-REIT jointly sponsored by Mitsui & Co. (8031)
and IDERA Capital Management (majority owned by the Fosun Group (0656 HK)). Almost
half of the assets consist of B-class office properties in three metropolitan areas (Tokyo,
Osaka, and Nagoya), which have limited supply and will face a smaller risk of rental
reductions than the larger A-class office buildings.
The four largest B-class office buildings with more than ¥10bn acquisition prices make up
36% of the portfolio as of April 2024. The rest of the properties are smaller with acquisition
prices below ¥10bn. The variations in size and property type provide diversification.
More than 80% of its portfolio comprises properties in major metropolitan areas in Tokyo,
Osaka, and Nagoya. The company plans to expand AUM to ¥200bn during the current
medium-term plan, which will bring more diversification to the portfolio. Five properties
have been added in FP4/24 after the fifth PO as part of a post-COVID reversal. There waslimited AUM expansion during the pandemic when the market was stagnant because thecompany’s focus was more on portfolio reconstruction to enhance the stability of theportfolio than expansion of assets.
As part of its external growth strategy, MIRAI will focus on properties that can benefit fromstructural changes such as domestic inflation and further improvement in inbound demand
from overseas, rather than being confined to investment ratios by asset type alone.
Specifically, this may involve introducing variable rents in hotels, including those with
expiring contracts, as well as considering urban commercial facilities that are more likely tobenefit from inflation or have rents linked to sales. Furthermore, there is an expectationthat opportunities for external growth through M&A, backed by the creditworthiness ofsponsor Mitsui & Co., will also be pursued.
Major Japanese credit agency JCR has an A+ credit rating for MIRAI but revised its outlook
from stable to positive in February 2024. The reasoning was based on an expectation of
stable cash flows driven by MIRAI’s efforts to add more defensiveness to its portfolio. As it
continues to expand AUM, the likelihood of a credit rating upgrade will increase, in ourview. Any upgrade would open up investment in MIRAI to regional financial institutions
that invest in J-REITs, but only those with credit ratings of AA or higher.
The company has embarked on a medium-term strategy (2022-25) based on the following(all increases are compared to FP10/21):•

DPU: ¥1,300 (vs. ¥1,289 in FP10/21)•

NAV/U: Over ¥53,000 (CAGR about +2%)•

AUM: ¥200bn (CAGR about +7%)

Astris Advisory estimates MIRAI Corporation will drive medium-term growth via thefollowing factors:•

Termination of free rent periods and rent holidays – the main driver for internal
growth in our view as more than 50% of the portfolio consists of offices that will
benefit from the termination of free rent periods (a period of rent exemption after
occupancy begins), which were offered to tenants after COVID-19 and rent8
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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

•

•

•

holidays (a period of rent exemption during a certain period of the contract term)in future.
Increasing variable rent ratio – A shift towards tenancy contracts with variable
rents will expand NOI and DPU on the back of inbound demand from overseas, astrong appetite for domestic travel, and domestic inflation. In particular, hotels
and urban retail properties should benefit.
Improving profitability through office conversions for hotels – MIRAI’s proventrack record in enhancing asset value through operational optimization. For
instance, it has improved profitability by converting some hotels that wentbankrupt during the pandemic into serviced offices.
Acquisition of properties – We believe external growth through property
acquisitions with POs will be a key driver.

Whilst there is a near-term headwind against offices in Tokyo due to excess supply of S andA class offices, we believe this impact is somewhat mitigated for MIRAI due to their
exposure to mid-sized offices where new supply is relatively limited. The mid-sized officemarket has limited new supply due to budget constraints associated with recent increases
in construction costs. This is why MIRAI puts more focus on mid-sized offices.

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MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Company description
Overview
MIRAI is a diversified J-REIT jointly sponsored by Mitsui & Co. and IDERA CapitalManagement. Listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2016, it was added to the FTSE/EPRA
Nareit Global Index in 2021. Its investment fund is classified as a diversified REIT with morethan 50% invested in offices, about 21% in retail, and about 18% in hotels as of April 2024.
Regionally the focus has been on three metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya)with high population concentrations. Properties in these areas make up more than 80% of
the portfolio. Most properties are classified as B-class which is defined as buildings older
than 15 years and below 30,000 m2 in size. Unlike A-class offices which target a smaller
number of large domestic and foreign corporates, it is relatively easier for B-class officebuildings to maintain more stable occupancy rates and more sustainable cash flows overtime because of a broader tenant base and limited new supply.
Assets under management totaled ¥178.2bn as of April 2024 with an appraisal value of¥196.2bn and an occupancy rate of 98.3%. Appraisal NOI yield (based on appraisal value) is
4.7% based on purchase value.
A key competitive strength lies in credit enhancement opportunities backed by Mitsui &Co.’s creditworthiness. The credit rating by JCR is already A+ but given a credit rating
upgrade in February 2024 from Stable to Positive, a potential improvement towards AA- or
higher could further expand the investment universe to include local financial institutions
that can only invest in J-REITs above an AA credit rating.

Timeline summary
Key dates

November 2015
December 2016
May 2018
October 2018
July 2019
August 2019
December 2019
December 2021
December 2021
November 2023
February 2024
Source: Company

Details

Establishment of MIRAI Corporation by Mitsui & Co. & IDERA Partners
IPO
1st PO (public offering)
2nd PO
Attempt to rescue Sakura Sogo REIT Investment as a white knight from Star Asia Group’s TOB. The
acquisition would have expanded MIRAI’s AUM above ¥200bn, facilitating inclusion into a global index.
This was the first TOB in the J-REIT sector.
The attempt of the white knight fell short. Sakura Sogo was acquired by Star Asia at the end
3rd PO
Inclusion into the FTSE/EPRA Nareit Global Index
4th PO
5th POJCR improved MIRAI’s outlook from stable to positive on an A+ credit rating10
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Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Financial Summary
Income statement(¥bn)
Operating revenue
Real estate
expenses
Net operating
income (NOI)NOI margin (%)
Depreciation
expenseOther operating
expenses
Interest & otherexpensesTax expense/benefit
Net income

FY
10/22
10.94
3.40

FY
10/23
12.05
4.00

FY
10/24E
12.85
4.24

FY
10/25E
13.25
4.51

FY
10/26E
14.67
4.91

7.43

7.43

8.61

8.75

9.75

67.9
1.30

61.6
1.39

67.0
1.54

66.0
1.66

66.5
1.83

1.08

1.16

1.03

0.99

1.28

0.59

0.60

0.31

0.42

0.53

0.00
4.57

0.08
4.60

0.02
4.93

0.02
5.09

0.02
5.63

Sales growth YoY(%)
NOI growth YoY (%)
NP growth YoY (%)
EPU growth YoY (%)
DPU growth YoY (%)

+8.5

+10.2

+6.6

+3.1

+10.7

+11.9
+8.4
+1.7
+1.7

-0.1
+0.7
+0.7
-2.3

+16.0
+7.2
-0.4
+1.6

+3.1
+3.1
+3.1
+4.2

+10.7
+10.7
+10.7
+10.7

Balance sheet
FY
(¥bn)
10/22
Real estate portfolio 164.67
Cash and cash
4.51
equivalents
Accounts &notes
0.26
receivables
Other long-term
0.72
assetsRestricted assets
2.63
Total assets
172.79Accounts payables
0.71
Short-term liabilities
7.06
and deposit
Unsecured debt
84.00
Secured debt
0.00
Other long-term
0.00
liabilities
Total liabilities
91.76
Minority interest
0.00
Shareholder equity 81.03
Total equity
81.03
Total liabilities & 172.79
equityFY
10/23
167.803.00

FY
10/24E
184.25(1.06)

FY
10/25E
190.54(2.10)

FY
10/26E
203.38(5.36)

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.31

1.05

1.05

1.05

1.05

2.64
174.75
0.74
7.00

2.64
187.16
0.78
7.50

2.64
192.42
0.81
8.00

2.64
202.03
0.90
9.70

85.50
0.00
0.12

91.30
0.12

96.04
0.12

103.86
0.12

93.35
0.00
81.39
81.39
174.75

99.70
87.46
87.46
187.16104.9787.45
87.45
192.42114.5787.45
87.45
202.03

Cash flow statement
(¥bn)
FFO
Capital expenditure
Cash from investing
Dividends paid
Cash from financing
Net cash flow
Free cash flow
EBITDAKey metrics
P/NAV (x)P/E (x)Dividend yield (%)
AFFO yield (%)
EPU
DPU
FFO Payout ratio (%)
AFFO Payout ratio (%)
FFO per unit

FY
FY
10/22 10/23
5.76
5.37
(11.79) (11.22)(11.44) (11.13)(4.38) (4.64)
5.86 (3.14)
2.26 (1.49)(3.95)
1.56
6.46
6.68

FY
10/22
0.88
17.4
5.8
7.3
2,579
2,580
79.4
79.4
3,250

FY
10/23
0.85
17.3
5.6
6.5
2,597
2,520
80.0
80.0
3,149

FY
FY
FY
10/24E 10/25E 10/26E
5.89
6.14
6.80
(17.99)(7.95) (14.67)(17.99)(7.95) (14.67)(4.88)(5.09) (5.63)
6.93 (0.35)
2.19(4.06) (1.04) (3.26)(10.99)(0.69) (5.45)
7.58
7.88
8.55

FY
10/24E
0.72
17.3
5.7
6.7
2,586
2,560
82.9
82.9
3,090

FY
10/25E
0.72
16.8
5.9
7.2
2,667
2,667
82.8
82.8
3,221

Source: Company, Astris Advisory (estimates)11
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FY
10/26E
0.66
15.2
6.6
7.8
2,952
2,952
82.8
82.8
3,565

Japan Corporate Research
MIRAI Corporation (3476)

Disclaimers
This report has been prepared by Astris Advisory Japan K.K. This report is based on information obtained from public sources that Astris
Advisory Japan K.K. believes to be reliable but which Astris Advisory Japan K.K. has not independently verified, and Astris Advisory
Japan K.K. makes no guarantee, representation, or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This report does not and does not
attempt to, contain everything material which there is to be said about the Company. Any opinions expressed herein reflect Astris
Advisory Japan K.K.’s judgment at the time the report was prepared and are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking
information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates ofamounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause theactual results, performance, or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.
This report has been prepared as general information, is therefore not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial
instruments or strategies, and does not constitute personal investment advice.
The analyst hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about thecompany and the securities that are the subject of this report, and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to views expressed by that research analyst in this report.
The report has been prepared by Astris Advisory Japan K.K., a Japanese firm organized under the laws of Japan and supervised by theJapanese Financial Services Agency. Details about the extent of our regulation by local authorities are available from us upon request.
Conflict of interest
This report has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit
as defined in MiFID II.
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seeking to provide IR/corporate advisory or other services to the company.
Investment in securities mentioned: Astris Advisory Japan K.K. has a restrictive policy over personal dealing for its directors, officers,
employees, and service providers. Astris Advisory Japan K.K. does not conduct any investment business and does not hold any
positions in the securities mentioned in this report.
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Astris Advisory Japan K.K. assumes no liability as regards any investment, divestment, or retention decision taken by the investor basedon this report. In no event will Astris Advisory Japan K.K. be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages(regardless of whether being considered foreseeable or not) resulting from the information in this report.

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