IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 42013 Volume 20 Issue 4

IN THIS ISSUE
1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

Congratulations New CFTes!

3

Save the Dates!

5

Calendar At-A-Glance

8

The State of Global TechnicalAnalysis

13 Defining Requirements for an
Algorithmic Trading System
16 Arms Candlevolume
19 An Unexpected Encounter of theThird Kind…
24 Member News
26 IFTA Member Societies
27 IFTA Journal Call for Submissions

Next issue: March 2014
Submission Deadlines
Education articles: February 15—
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: March 1—
send submissions to admin@ifta.org
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For more information, go to
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page 1a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

President’s Report to Colleagues
Dear IFTA Colleagues,
I am happy to report that the IFTA conference in San Francisco was a success! We
had more attendees than in past years
and the presentations were fascinating.
Plus, San Francisco is a lovely place for a
conference. I want to thank our host, theTechnical Security Analysts Association of
San Francisco (TSAASF), and our former
conference director, Roman Bogomazov,for organizing such a wonderful event.
This time, it was not just the usual threeday conference; we also had an interesting preconference and a closing tour of
Napa Valley. Because the conference
covered so many different topics, every
attendee could easily find a favorite
presentation. My personal pick was theMarket Wizard session on Friday. With
such an extensive program, you usuallyfind something that is totally counter toyour own thinking. For me, that was theamazing presentation on market geometry by Scott Hathaway. We all learned

about nautical miles, tetrahedral latitude,
and the orbital angle. I also learned a lot
from Howard Bandy’s presentation aboutsystem development. And of course, I
will never forget the performance by Ed
Seykota, as I have never seen a financial
presentation where the speaker sings his
main messages accompanied by his banjo.
For the first time ever, we awarded an
individual for his contribution to IFTA
and to technical analysis as a discipline.
During the conference, Professor Henry”Hank” Pruden was given the IFTA Lifetime
Award.
Prior to the conference, we held theAnnual General Meeting (AGM). Our
members reported many interesting
things from their societies, and we voted
on new directors. We welcome Jeanette
Schwarz-Young, Akira Homma, Mohamed
Ashraf Mahfouz, Dan Valcu, and Gregor
Bauer as new directors of the IFTA board.

IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc.
(www.ifta.org), a not-for-profit professionalorganization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

I wish them a very successful three-year
term. As well, we bid farewell to Saleh
Nasser and David Furcagj, who retired
from the IFTA board. We thank them fortheir commitment in the past years andtheir contributions for the federation.
We are grateful that both of them willcontinue to volunteer for IFTA on a committee level.
In San Francisco, the IFTA Journal was
distributed to the delegates. Our Journal
director, Aurélia Gerber, has edited themost voluminous issue that I can think of.
For those colleagues who were not in San
Francisco, the Journal will be available on
our website. Also, we have added four
shorter articles to this newsletter. Richard
Arms and Mario Kfoury have contributed
a paper, and we also have a contribution
from South Africa—Steward Reid’s article
on Algorithmic Trading. Finally, we’ve
published an abstract from a presentation that our former IFTA president, Adam

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 2President's Message (continued)
Sorab, presented at the Australian Technical Analysts Association (ATAA) annual
meeting.
It is also worth noting that IFTA has started sponsoring webinars. Marketing director
Dan Valcu has started that project and has already organized two webinars, whichwere hosted by IFTA’s German society, VTAD. The speakers were Tony Plummer andPhilipp Kahler. According to Dan, we will organize these webinars regularly next year.
In November, I was invited by the French society to attend its autumn conference.
AFATE organized a good conference, with Elliott Wave as the special topic. With thatexperience in mind, I encourage all colleagues to attend the conferences of othermember societies. It is a good way to learn and socialize with experts and colleagues.
Our next conference will be held in London on 9–11 October 2014, and will behosted by the Society of Technical Analysts (STA). The conference theme will be“Unravelling the DNA of the Market”. Our new conference director, Deborah Owen,
informed us that there will be special rates for very early birds, so I advise you all
to check the website soon.
Last but not least, I want to thank all of you who took the time to send in material
and news from your societies. It is part of IFTA’s purpose to share ideas and information to other colleagues. Thank you very much for your efforts.
Best wishes for a healthy and prosperous new year!
Best regards,

Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D.
IFTA President

Congratulations New CFTes!
Abdul Razak Bin Abd Kathar (STA)

Munish Kumar (ATAA)

Muneera Al Dossary

David Victor Lipinski (STA)

Mohammed Al-Aker (STA)

Ley Yee Low (STA)

Constantinos Aristophanous (STA)David Marchese (ATAA)

Edgar E. Aviles (ATAA)

Gabriele Massaro (STA)

Mohamad Shahrizul Nazli bin Bahrudin (STA)

Paul McLaren (ATAA)

Miroslav Brejla (STA)

Adam George McMaster (ATAA)

Steven Broom (ATAA)

Claus Meyer-Bothling (VTAD)

Robert Dean Chen (CSTA)

Mindaugas Miskinis (STA)

Andrew Clough (ATAA)

Omar Mohamed Naguib (ESTA)

Ainslie Ruth Clubb (ATAA)

Alexander Novak (VTAD)

Todd Luke Cole (ATAA)

Ivaylo Evelinov Pavlov (STA)

Charalambos Constantinides (STA)

Emanuella Petrou (STA)

Benjamin Denney (STA)

Charalambos Pissouros (STA)

Momen Atef El Shayal (ESTA)

Mario Walter Reich (VTAD)

Kieran Flynn (ATAA)

Richard Riccio (ATAA)

Doru Dumitru Gavrila

Ahmad Hafiz Rusli (STA)

Michael Gilligan (STA)

Gil Sartena (ATAA)

Mohamed Waheed Hammoud (ESTA)

Mohd Redza Sazali (STA)

Farid Fadhly Haron (STA)

Henry Sidarta (AATI)

Jitka Havlova

Doni Sulistyono (AATI)

Marius Daniel Hutcheson

Nandesh Suresh Wagle (ATA)

Glenn Taufiek Ilahibaks (DCTA)

Benjamin Waite, Jr. (ATAA)

Wong Sui Cheen, Kelvin (TASS)

Ying Wang

Jeffrey William Kennedy (STA)

Junyang Woon

Sameer Khan (STA)

Wang Zhangliang

It’s time!

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

Save the Dates!

If you are like most of our clients, you’re busy managing portfolios, analysing opportunities, measuring risk or writing reports,
and that is before we even consider those emails or meetings!

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Datepage 3

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions
www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/.
Syllabus and Study Guide for exams to be taken through April 30, 2014:
http://ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2014_CFTeI_Syllabus.pdf
Syllabus and Study Guide for exams to be taken from May 1, 2014 onward:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2014_IFTA_Syllabus_New.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
Date

8 October 201416 April 2014

Registration deadline

7 August 2014

5 March 2014

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Syllabus and Study Guide for exams to be taken through April 30, 2014:
http://ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2014_CFTeII_Syllabus.pdf
Syllabus and Study Guide for exams to be taken from May 1, 2014 onward:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2014_IFTA_Syllabus_New.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program,
visit http://www.ifta.org/certifications

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
MFTA Alternative Path
Pre-Application deadline

28 February 201431 July 2014

Application/outline deadline (if approved)

2 May 2014

2 October 2014

Paper submission deadline

15 October 2014

15 March 2015

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/

We understand, and above all else, that’s why we designed
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IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 5

Calendar At-A-Glance
Date

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

STANZ (New
Zealand)

VariesEpsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieshttp://www.stanz.co.nz/

VariesVarieshttp://www.csta.org

Monthly

Presentations from local and international speaker on acomprehensive range of topics (sharemarket, CFDs, options,futures, foreign exchange (forex trading), methodologies, money
management, psychology, etc.

Monthly

Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as
CSTA Chapters: Varies
ambassadors for the CSTA and plan social and educational events
for the area. Events include presentations by Industry Professionals,
Technical Analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters
also play a vital role in their community by connecting individuals
and promoting Technical Analysis.

January

February

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration
opens for April 16th examination through IFTA website

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

11

Pring Turner Annual Market Outlook

TSAA-SFJoe Turner, Tom Kopas, andJim Kopas

Golden Gate University
Room 2202, 536 Mission St.
San Francisco, CA USA

09:00–
12:00

Brett Villaume(bvillaume@figpartners.com)

11

Tracy Knudsen of Lowry Research

TSAA-SF

Tracy Knudsen, CMT

Bloomberg, Pier 3
San Francisco, CA USA

14:00–
15:30

Brett Villaume(bvillaume@figpartners.com)

18

Monthly Meeting

TASN

TBA

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

23

Harmonic Elliott Wave

NTAA

Ian Copsey

NTAA Seminar Room
3-3 Nihonbashi-kabutoch
Cho-ku, Tokyo, Japan 103-0026

18:30–
20:00

Tel: (81) 3-5847-2231, Fax: (81) 3-5847-2232
http://www.ntaa.or.jp/
Email: office@ntaa.or.jp

24

New Year Networking EventNTAANIHONBASHI PLAZA Building

18:00–
20:00

Tel: (81) 3-5847-2231, Fax: (81) 3-5847-2232
http://www.ntaa.or.jp/
Email: office@ntaa.or.jp

25

Committee Meeting

TASN

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

5

Understanding the Use of the ”Kaisha Shikiho(Japan Company Handbook)”

NTAA

NTAA Seminar Room
3-3 Nihonbashi-kabutoch
Cho-ku, Tokyo, Japan 103-0026

18:30–
20:00

Tel: (81) 3-5847-2231, Fax: (81) 3-5847-2232
http://www.ntaa.or.jp/
Email: office@ntaa.or.jp

7

Japanese Stock Market Outlook for the New Fiscal Year
2014

NTAA

Naoyuki Fujihara, CFTe

NTAA Seminar Room
3-3 Nihonbashi-kabutoch
Cho-ku, Tokyo, Japan 103-0026

18:30–
20:00

Tel: (81) 3-5847-2231, Fax: (81) 3-5847-2232
http://www.ntaa.or.jp/
Email: office@ntaa.or.jp

8

Introductory Technical Analysis Course for New Members

TASN

Membership Committee

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

15

Monthly Meeting

TASN

TBA

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org, Attn: Aurélia Gerber,
Journal Director

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative
Path, Session 1 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org

TBA

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 6

Calendar At-A-Glance (continued)
1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (midMarch release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

5

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—deadline toregister for April 16th examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org

8

CFTe Introductory Class

TASN

TBA

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2(2013) paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

15

Factors Driving the Forex Market and Their Influence on
the Stock Market

NTAA

NTAA Seminar Room
3-3 Nihonbashi-kabutoch
Cho-ku, Tokyo, Japan 103-0026

18:3020:00

Tel: (81) 3-5847-2231, Fax: (81) 3-5847-2232
http://www.ntaa.or.jp/
Email: office@ntaa.or.jp

18

John Lewis of Dorsey, Wright & Associates

TSAA-SF

John Lewis, CMT

Golden Gate University
536 Mission St., San Francisco, CA

TBD

Brett Villaume(bvillaume@figpartners.com)

22

Market Analysis Training

TASN

TBA

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

29

Conference Committee Meeting

TASN

TBA

77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Behind Ikeja Plaza Ikeja. Lagos

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

19

March

April
May

2014 Annual Conference

TASN

TBA

TBA

10:00

admin@tasnigeria.org

16

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

1

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1
application, outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org, Attn: Aurélia Gerber,
Journal Director

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

June

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

July

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path, Session 2 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org

August15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org, Attn: Aurélia Gerber,
Journal Director

15

IFTA Journal applicants notification of acceptance/rejection IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

September 1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (midSeptember release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

October2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2
application, outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

8

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

8

IFTA Board of Director’s Meeting

IFTA

VariesThe Waldorf Hilton Hotel, London

TBA

admin@ifta.org

8

IFTA Annual General Meeting (Members Only)

IFTA

VariesThe Waldorf Hilton Hotel, London

TBA

9-11

IFTA 27th Annual Conference:
Unravelling the DNA of the Market

IFTA & STA

TBA

The Waldorf Hilton Hotel, London

Variesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1
paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

November 15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org, Attn: Aurélia Gerber,
Journal Director

December 1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

IFTA Journal web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

31

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IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 8

Education Lounge
The State of Global Technical Analysis
Extract from a presentation given by Adam Sorab, FSTA, CFTe, to ATAA in June 2013

Origins of technical analysis
The precise origins of technical analysis
are unknown. Andrew Lo argues that it
dates back as far as Babylonian times circa
1500 BC. The first recorded mention ofchart usage to support trading decisions
is from Homma, a Japanese rice merchantfrom the 18 th century. It is important tonote that he not only advocated the useof price history to identify trends, but also
understood the importance of price patterns and the changes in psychology ofmarket participants that these patterns
illustrated.

Rise of capitalism and the growth ofmarkets
The Industrial Revolution and the investment needed to build North America led
to significant developments in stock, bond,commodity, and futures markets. New markets led to a growth in the investor base via
brokers, bucket shops, and stock ownership in general. Charles Dow published his

technical analysis ideas on the Dow theory
and point and figure charts in the late 19 th
century in his now famous “Wall Street
Journal.” There also was the first observable use of indices, bar charts, and intermarket analysis. WD Gann wrote articles
based on his technical analysis approachin the 1920s with the first observable useof cycles and the Gann theory.

Some key texts along the way
Some key texts, without being exhaustive,
include: Maneshu Homma – San-en Kinsen Hiroku(1755)
 Charles MacKay – Extraordinary Delusions,
the Madness of Crowds (1841)
 Charles Dow – The Wall Street Journal(First published 1889)
 WD Gann – Truth of Stock Tape (1924)
 Ralph Nelson Elliott – The Wave Principle (1938)
 Edwards and Magee – Technical Analysisof Stock Trends (1948)

 John Murphy – Technical Analysis of the
Futures Market (1986)
 Peter Steidlmayer – Markets and Market
Logic (1986)
 Jack Schwager – Market Wizards (1988)
 Steve Nison – Japanese Candlestick
Charting Techniques (1991)

Impact of computers
The Commodore’s PET was launched in1977 and came “fully loaded” with 8 KB ofmemory. Then, technology helped develop
faster and cheaper processing power,
spurning an explosion in technical analysis.
The development of more powerful computing led to further developments, suchas greater graphical capabilities and more

and more complex indicators. Real-timedata and electronic exchanges encouraged
further advances, like the development oftechniques for intraday trading and algorithmic trading models and usage, as wellas high-frequency trading.

The rise of the machines Pre 1970s – Investors used paper charts(e.g., Commodity Research Bureau).
Since then, machines have taken over.
 1980 – QG was founded and Computrac
System developed on Apple II then IBM PC.
 1984 – The Market Mood Monitor was
released and was eventually renamed“The Technician“ (further developed under
the Equis label to MetaStock 1.0 in 1986).
 1986 – Teletrac—Charting goes realtime. Spreadsheets are being widelyused. Lotus 123 is later superseded byMicrosoft Excel.
 1987 – Bloomberg
Terminals start to takeoff, also as a tradingand email platform for
fixed income market
professionals.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 9

Education Lounge

The State of Global Technical Analysis (continued)

 1989 – System Writer Plus. End-of-Day(EOD) Programming Script is released andallows “Easy Language” to be developed
to make it easy for mechanical trading
system writers. Also Reuters Release
Dealing 2000 becomes the world’s
premier global forex network.
 1990 – Ned Davis Research releases“Technalyzer,” a technical analysis package
costing £250K. This is a powerful systemrunning on a CRAY 2 to model entire
portfolios. Everyone now tries to get on
the bandwaggon (e.g., Reuters [TRIARCH
2000], Teknekron [TIB], Telerate [TTRS],
Micrognosis [MIPS]).
 1991 – Tradestation is released withreal-time system testing, and rule-based
trading systems become more mainstream.
The first black boxes are released for
trading in Tradestation. William Schmidt,
Ph.D. releases his peerless rule-based
trading system, and Neural Nets begin
to be used.
 1994 – Personal Automated Trading
Systems (PATS) starts for floor traders
but is quickly adapted to be a technicalanalysis package.
 1995 – Nirvana Systems’ first Automatic
Reasoning Machine (ARM) trading system
is released.
 1997 – Neuroshell Trader was releasedby Ward Systems.
 1999 – RadarScreen was released—aspreadsheet type ranking and alert
system. Black-box systems are now being
widely marketed.

 2000 – Reuters’ Dealing 3000 trading
system is released.
 2000 to 2010 – Entire software industry
starts to explode—Omnitrader, Teletrac
2000, etc. Neural Networks are supersededby Genetic Algos, and high-frequency
trading begins.
 Since 2010 – Quant packages, HFT, Algos
are used extensively. Also NSP-33 isdeveloped by Omnitrader. The system
incorporates a self-coding package
similar to Tradestation.

Country

Society/Association

Member Since

Australia

ATAA

Australian Technical Analysts Association

Austria

VTAO

Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Österreichs

Jan-11

Bosnia andHerzegovina

SMS

Society for Market Studies

Dec-09CanadaCSTA

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts

Jan-86

Croatia

CTAA

Croatian Technical Analysis Association

Jan-11

Egypt

ESTA

Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts

May-00France

AFATE

Association Francaise des Analystes Techniques

Jun-91

Germany

VTAD

Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V.

Jun-92India

ATA

The Association of Technical Analysts

May-09Now, how does the future look? Intelligent
systems that continually react to numerous
fundamental and technical market changes(i.e., robotic trading systems).

Indonesia

AATI

Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia

Dec-94

Italy

SIAT

Societa Italiana di Analisi Tecnica

Dec-86

Japan

NTAA

Nippon Technical Analysts Association

Jan-86

Lebanon

LSTA

Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts

Aug-10

History of technical analysis societies

New Zealand

STANZ

Society of Technical Analysts New ZealandJan-11

In 1968, the Association of Chart andTechnical Analysts (ACTA) was createdin the U.K., later to become STA. In
1971, the Market Technicians Association(MTA) was created in the United States.
In 1978, the Nippon Technical Analysts
Association (NTAA) was created. In 1984,
the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts (IFTA) was established as a notfor-profit organisation to support the workof its members: the global communityof technical analysts and their national
associations. In 1990, the Australian
Association of Technical Analysts (ATAA)
was created. And the community is still
growing.

Nigeria

TASN

Technical Analyst Society, Nigeria

Oct-10

Pakistan

STAP

Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan

Jul-11

Romania

AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania

Jun-90

Jan-08

Saudi Arabia

SSTA

Saudi Society of Technical Analysts

Apr-08

Scandinavia

STAF

Scandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening

Jan-86Singapore

TASS

Technical Analysts Society Singapore

Oct-02South Africa

TASSA

Technical Analysts’ Society of Southern Africa

Dec-07Spain

IEATEC

Instituto Español de Analistas Tecnicos y Cuantitativos

Oct-13

Switzerland

SAMT

Swiss Association of Market Technicians

Jan-86The Netherlands

DCTA

Dutch Commission of Technical Analysis

Jun-87

Tunisia

ATAT

Association Tunisienne des Analystes TechniqueJul-13

United Kingdom

STA

Society of Technical Analysts

Jan-86

United States

AAPTA

American Association of Professional Technical Analysts

Apr-06USA

TSAASF Technical Security Analysts Association of San Francisco

Jan-06

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4
The State of Global Technical Analysis (continued)

Growing academic acceptanceT h e re i s g row i n g a c a d e m ic a cce p tance, as demonstrated in the article“Head & Shoulders above the Rest? The
Performance of Institutional Portfolio
Managers who use Technical Analysis,”published by the Department of Financeand Center for Institutional Investment
Management, School of Business,
University at Albany, New York – Smith,Faugère and Wang - January 2013.
Important academic papers on technicalanalysis might also include: GROSSMAN, S.J., et al., 1980. On the
Impossibility of Informationally Efficient
Markets. The American Economic Review.
 BROWN, D.P. and R.H. JENNINGS,
1989. On Technical Analysis. Review of
Financial Studies.
 FRANKEL, J.A., K.A. FROOT and M.P.
PAGE, 1990. Chartists, Fundamentalists,
and Trading in the Foreign Exchange
Market. The American Economic Review.
 NEFTCI, S.N., 1991. Naive Trading
Rules in Financial Markets and WienerKolmogorovPrediction Theory: A Studyof “Technical Analysis.” The Journal ofBusiness.

Global data on technical analysis coverage and growing academic acceptanceTechnical analysis coverage is steadily increasing globally.

page 10

Education Lounge BROCK, W., J. LAKONISHOK and B.
LEBARON, 1992. Simple Technical Trading
Rules and the Stochastic Properties ofStock Returns. The Journal of Finance.

 FERNANDEZ-RODRIGUEZ, F., C.
GONZALEZ-MARTEL and S., 2000. On
the profitability of technical trading
rules based on artificial neural networks:
Evidence from… Economics Letters.

 TAYLOR, M.P. and H. ALLEN, 1992. The
use of technical analysis in the foreignexchange market. Journal of International
Money and Finance.

 LEE, C.M.C. and B. SWAMINATHAN,
2000. Price Momentum and Trading
Volume. The Journal of Finance.

 BLUME, L., D. EASLEY and M. O’HARA, 1994. Market Statistics and TechnicalAnalysis: The Role of Volume. The Journalof Finance.

 LO, A.W., et al., 2000. Foundationsof Technical Analysis: Computational
Algorithms, Statistical Inference, andEmpirical. The Journal of Finance.

 LEBARON, B.D. and M.P. PAGE, 1994.
Technical trading rule profitability andforeign exchange interventin.

 NEELY, C.J. and P. WELLER, 2001.
Technical analysis and central bankintervention. Journal of International
Money and Finance.

 NEELY, C.J., P. WELLER and R. DITTMAR,
1996. Is technical analysis in the foreignexchange market profitable?: a genetic
programming approach.

 KAVAJECZ, K.A., E.R. ODDERS-WHITE
and O. JOURNALS, 2003. TechnicalAnalysis and Liquidity Provision. Review
of Financial Studies.

 NEELY C., 1997. Technical Analysis
Layman’s Guide CESARI, R. and D. CREMONINI, 2003.
Benchmarking, portfolio insurance
and technical analysis: a Monte Carlocomparison of dynamic. Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control.

 NEELY, C., 1997. In: The Foreign Exchange
Market: A Layman’s Guide.
 LUI, Y.H. and D. MOLE, 1998. The use offundamental and technical analyses byforeign exchange dealers: Hong Kong
evidence. Journal of International Moneyand Finance.
 NEELY, C.J., 1998. Technical Analysis andthe Profitability of US Foreign ExchangeIntervention. Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review.

 PARK, C.H. and S.H. IRWIN, 2004. The
Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review.
AgMAS Project Research Report No.

Growing regulatory acceptance
The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkalso conceded in its Economic Policy
Review, July 2000, using technical analysis
for its intraday exchange rate monitoring.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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The State of Global Technical Analysis (continued)

Global survey of technical analysts

In a global survey of technical analysts, one could notice
the discrepancy between the usefulness and significanceof technical analysis forinvestment decisions and the
low but growing coverage or
use by media and regulators.

Most popular techniques

Global data on actual technical analysis usage

This same survey also classified the techniques used by analysts into most and least popular.

According to Paul Ciana at Bloomberg, these are the primary analyses used byBloomberg clients for displaying price information:

Most Popular Techniques
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

DiscretionaryTA
Trends/Patterns
MAV/MACDRSIStochastics
Candlesticks
Relative strength/
lntermarket
8. Fibonacci

Least Popular Techniques
9. Systematic TA
10. Elliott Wave
11. Cycle Theory
12. Tom DeMark
13. Point & Figure
14. lchimoku
15. Bollinger Bands

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Gann
Elliott Wave
Point & Figure
Market Profile
Cycle Theory
lchimoku
Tom DeMark
Stochastics
Volume 49% use only line charts 27% use bar charts 22% use candlestick charts
 3% use semi-log scaled charts 35% only use daily charts 65% use intraday charting(growing in recent years)

The most popular technical indicators are :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

RSI
MACD
Bollinger
Time & Sales
DMI
Ichimoku
Value at TimeIFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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The State of Global Technical Analysis (continued)
The following tables and figure illustrate chart and indicator preferences across the world.

Table 1.3 shows a comparison of regional chart type preferences to world preferences.

Table 1.4 compares regional indicator preference to all indicator preferences.

Table 1.1 gives an overview on the chart types over a recent
six-year period.

The figure shows a breakdown of world indicatorpreference.
Table 1.5 displays regional indicator preferences to total
indicator preference.
Table 1.2 gives an overview on the chart types for a selectionof world regions.

Technical analysis today
Today, technical analysis is central to all professional trading activity. It is adopted by producers, consumers, market
makers, fund managers, retail investors, and central banks.
Technical analysis received academic acceptance of several

key technical phenomena, such as behavioural finance(just an academic euphemism for technical analysis) andmomentum investing (just a another term for following
trends). Media now admit that their misgivings concerning

the approach were misplaced and that there is increased
use of technicals in financial papers and broadcasting. So
technical analysis is now mainstream (ironically, it is macroeconomics that is currently being questioned!).

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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Defining Requirements for an Algorithmic Trading System
Algorithmic trading systems make trading decisions, submit market orders, and manage orders after submission.
by Stuart Reid
An algorithmic trading system has threehigh-level functional requirements: maketrading decisions, submit market orders,and manage orders after submission. Yetan algorithmic trading system that satisfies
these three requirements may still fail tomeet expectations. This is because algorithmic trading systems are also subject tostrict nonfunctional requirements, which areoften overlooked at the onset of a software
engineering project or a system sourcing
and selection exercise. Trying to satisfy
nonfunctional requirements ex post facto
can become very costly. This article suggests relevant nonfunctional requirements
to consider when building an algorithmic
trading system or buying one off the shelf.
It also articulates the responsibility of analgorithmic trading system’s architecture
in satisfying those requirements.

Algorithmic trading
Algorithmic trading is often used by buyside trading institutions as a means of
reducing costs, remaining anonymous,
improving productivity, executing trades
faster and more consistently, and reducing the risk of significant market impact.
Because of these benefits, the quantityof securities traded algorithmically hasrisen significantly since the early 2000s.
This progress has given rise to a subset ofhigh-performance, low-latency algorithmic trading systems called high-frequency
trading systems. Currently, a debate overthe market impact of these systems isbeing waged. Some industry players support algorithmic trading, and others cite
the flash crash as an indication that financial markets are becoming increasingly
unstable. This changes how algorithmic
trading system architectures should bedesigned and implemented.

System architectures
There is still no consensus regarding whata system’s architecture is. This article
defines a system’s architecture as “theinfrastructure within which application
components that satisfy functional requirements can be specified, deployed, andexecuted.” Functional requirements are
the expected functions of the system (e.g.,
make trading decisions) and its components. Nonfunctional requirements aremeasures through which the quality ofthe system can be measured (e.g., makemillions of trading decisions per second[performance] and log the audit trail for
all trading decisions made [auditability]).

Nonfunctional requirements
Whether initiating a software engineering
project to build a new algorithmic trading system or initiating a sourcing andselection exercise to buy an algorithmic
trading system, the following eight nonfunctional requirements should be taken
into consideration:
1. Scalability – measures the ability tocontinue performing under an expanding
workload. An algorithmic trading systemshould be scalable when it comes toadding additional data feeds, the numberof markets and instruments traded, thenumber of supported trading strategies,
and the number of concurrent users.
2. Performance – measures the amountof work accomplished as comparedwith the time and resources required
to do that work. An algorithmic trading
system should be able to process data
efficiently and accurately. It should also
maintain a high network throughput.
3. Modifiability – measures the ease withwhich changes to the system can be
made. An algorithmic trading systemshould be modifiable when it comes to
trading strategies, financial reporting,rules for data pre-processing, andmessage queue structures.

4. Reliability – measures the accuracy anddependability of a system to produce
correct outputs for the inputs received.
Because bugs in algorithmic trading
systems could result in financial losses
and fines, algorithmic trading systems
should be reliable.
5. Auditability – measures the ease withwhich the system can be audited. Because
of increasing regulatory pressure on
algorithmic trading systems to comply
with new laws and standards, they should
be auditable from both from a financial
and IT point of view.
6. Security – measures the safety of asystem against criminal activity such as
terrorism, theft, or espionage. Trading
strategies are proprietary and represent
valuable intellectual property; as such,the algorithmic trading system should
ensure their confidentiality and integrity.
Large orders should also be obfuscatedto avoid market impact and ensure
anonymity.
7. Fault tolerance – measures the ability ofa system to continue operating properly
after a fault or failure. This is similar toreliability, except that the algorithmic
trading system should continue tobe reliable even after a fault. This isIFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4
Defining requirements for an algorithmic trading system (continued)

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required in order to mitigate the riskof financial losses.
8. Interoperability – measures the easewith which the system is able to operatewith a diverse range of related systems.
This is important for an algorithmic
trading system, which may be required
to interface with order management
systems, portfolio management systems,
risk management systems, accounting
systems, and even banking systems.
Even if an algorithmic trading system satisfies its functional requirements, that system
will not meet expectations unless it alsosatisfies its nonfunctional requirements.
As an example, consider an algorithmic
trading system that makes great trading
decisions but is completely inoperable withthe organization’s risk management andaccounting systems. The cost of satisfying
the interoperability nonfunctional requirement may be significant, and if the repair
were conducted poorly, this could impact
the performance, scalability, or even profitability of the algorithmic trading system.

Architectural constraints
In a perfect world, the person or organization building or buying an algorithmic
trading system would have a complete listof clearly articulated functional and nonfunctional requirements. They would also
have enough time and resources to builda system that satisfies those requirements.
However, in the real world, the ability tosatisfy requirements can be constrained.
Real-world constraints often include:
1. Organizational constraints – could include
budget, resourcing, system dependency,
vendor lock-ins, governance, and otherconstraints. Such constraints should be
identified in advance and proactively
managed to ensure the successful
implementation of the algorithmic
trading system.
2. Geographic constraints – the physicallocality of the algorithmic trading system
will impact its performance. When highperformance is a strict requirement, an
option is to co-locate the algorithmic
trading system with the exchange.
However, the decision to co-locate may

constrain the system in other ways (e.g.,
infrastructure limitations).
3. Regulatory constraints – regulatory
constraints vary among different
countries and sometimes even withincountries where state laws exist.
Additional regulations governing
specific exchanges and securities
will also constrain the algorithmic
trading system where applicable.
Some regulations and standards worth
taking a look at include the SEC’s rules
regarding system compliance andintegrity (SCI), the EMEA guidelines
for algorithmic trading systems, theISO 9000 algorithmic trading standards(AT9000), and the international financial
reporting standards (IFRS).

Where nonfunctional requirements areoften universal, constraints are mostly
localized. Therefore, constraints on thealgorithmic trading system should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.
A study by MIT open press identified
physical locations where the network
latency for algorithmic trading systems
is minimized. These are indicated by theblue dots on the diagram. The larger red
circles show the locations of large international securities exchanges. Network
constraints have a large impact on theperformance of algorithmic trading systems, especially high-frequency trading
systems.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4
Defining requirements for an algorithmic trading system (continued)

Additional requirements
In addition to functional and nonfunctional
requirements, there are also access andintegration requirements. Access requirements define the way in which end-users(e.g., traders, system administrators, auditors) interact with the algorithmic trading system. Integration requirements
specify how the algorithmic trading system must interact with external systems(e.g., exchanges, brokerages, banks).
These interactions are mostly controlled
by standard protocols such as FIX, FAST,
FIXatdl, XML, and SWIFT, or application
programming interfaces (APIs) such as theBloomberg Open API.

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Cliff D and Northorp L, The global financial
markets: an ultra large scale systems perspective, the future of computer tradingin financial markets review, 2012
Avellaneda M, Algorithmic and high frequency trading: an overview, New York
University & Finance Concepts LLC, 2011
Wissner-Gross, A and Freer, C. Relativistic
statistical arbitrage , Mas sachuset t s
Institute of Technology, American PhysicalSociety, 2011
Tellefsen Consulting Group, Algorithmic
Trading Trends and Drivers, 2005

Conclusions

About the author

Algorithmic trading systems are complicated by strict nonfunctional requirements, numerous access and integration
requirements, localized regulations thatgovern algorithmic trading, and challenging architectural constraints. Unless these
are understood and taken into consideration in the architecture, an algorithmic
trading system is unlikely to meet expectations. This article aims to articulate somerequirements that are often overlooked
when building or buying algorithmic trading systems.

Stuart Reid works as a junior consultant
in the management consulting practiceof KPMG South Africa. He is also a computer science honours research student at
the University of Pretoria. He is currently
majoring in artificial intelligence and software engineering. Mr. Reid has a passion
for financial markets and plans to begin his
CFA in 2014 and complete an MSc in computer science in 2015. For more information or to contact Mr. Reid you can visit his
website at http://www.stuartreid.co.za.

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Bibliography
Solms F, What is software architecture?,
University of Pretoria, 2013

For more information about Bloomberg,
contact a Bloomberg Sales representative
or visit www.bloomberg.com.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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Education LoungeArms Candlevolume
by Richard W. Arms, Jr.

The history of technical analysis involves
the quest for depicting information in anunderstandable and informative way. Each
improvement has helped the analyst to
better see what is happening, with the goalof making better trading or investment
decisions. All the other indicators we use
are merely mathematical applications ofsix very basic pieces of information. Whenthe market closes for the day we are left
with only these data:
 Opening price Closing price Volume High for the day Low for the day Change from the prior day
Of course, these data can be augmented
by looking at shorter timeframes, such ashours or minutes, or generalized by looking at longer timeframes, such as weeks,months, or years. But there is no otherinformation available except the six items
enumerated above. So any method ofcharting is only an attempt to depict thislimited information as clearly as possible.
Throughout the history of markets, men
have tried to visually depict the numbers

generated by the buying and selling ofitems, be they stocks commodities, debt
instruments, or anything else with a trading market.

Chart 1First, there were line charts that connected
the end of the day data, day to day, andgave an impression of how prices werechanging. Chart 1 shows recent trading of
Google stock. The charts that follow, courtesy of StockCharts.com, will all look at thesame timeframe for the same stock, using
the various methods being discussed.
Then, there were bar charts, where eachday was represented by a vertical line,
indicating the high and low for the day. It
included more information—the trading
range for the day.
That was soon improved upon by adding
the opening and the closing prices as tickmarks on the vertical line. In Chart 2, thetiny line to the left of each daily bar is the
opening for the day, and the line to theright is the close. Each improvement was
an attempt to better inform the observer
as to what prices were doing, and much
more importantly, to allow one to try
to forecast future prices based on past

Chart 2IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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Education LoungeArms Candlevolume (continued)

performance. Comparing where the twolines were carried the additional information as to whether or not the stock closed
higher than it opened, and by comparing
one bar with the next, it was also possible
to see whether the stock showed a gain ora loss for the day.
In the quest for more information, andtherefore better market decisions, volume
was added as a histogram across the bottom of the chart. It allowed the trader orinvestor to see how much interest there
was in each move as it developed. The
thought was that days with more volume
were probably more important, with a bigger public interest in the activity.
These were the tools of the technical analyst for many years, and they were usedwith great success by some of the legendsof the technique, such as Richard Wyckoff.
Each change in the methodology was
intended to add more data to the chart,
in order to facilitate decision-making.
In 1972, Equivolume was unveiled in mybook Profits in Volume (since republishedby Marketplace books) as a model of technical analysis. The technique moved volume off the lower margin and included
it in the price posting. To do this, eachbar was expanded laterally to become abox instead of a line, with the width ofeach box representing the volume onthat day. In Chart 4 we see Google forthe same timeframe, but using the new
methodology.
To understand the new method of charting called Arms Candlevolume, presented in this article, one should look at
the Equivolume system in depth. But for
now, be aware of a few important changes
that were brought about by this advance:
1) It allowed one to look at both price andvolume in a single entry ; 2) It abandoned
time on the X-axis, replacing it with volume, enabling the analyst to measureaccumulated volume laterally on the chart;
3) It produced boxes that reflected how
easy or hard it was for prices to change;4) It included, in a single posting , theadvantages of bar charts and the volume
histogram, thereby revealing an entirely
new approach, which allowed the study ofeach entry as a price move with a particularvolume characteristic.
In the meantime, though, some analysts
were using an ancient Japanese charting
method called Candlesticks. These chartsemphasized the importance of the opening and closing prices rather than just thehigh and low. A Candlestick chart inserted
a box over the vertical line indicating thehigh and low. A filled box signified a day inwhich the close was lower than the opening, while an unfilled box meant that theclose was higher than the opening that day.
Chart 5 is a Candlestick chart of the same
stock over the same time period (Google).

Chart 3Chart 4

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

Education LoungeArms Candlevolume (continued)

What could be more logical, then, thanto combine the two methods to gain theadvantages of both? This was attemptedby various charting services, but in a waythat lost the value of Equivolume boxes by
eliminating them. But Arms Candlevolume
charts accomplish what we are looking for.
So, to differentiate, we are calling these“Arms Candlevolume Charts.” They retain
the Equivolume box but superimpose thedata and display of Candlestick charts.
The candlestick method is placed inside
the Equivolume posting. Unlike the regular
candlestick chart, though, the posting is
expanded laterally based on the volume,
as in the Equivolume system.
Now we have, for the first time, all of thesix available pieces of data included ona single chart in a clear, understandable,
and interpretable manner. In addition, thePoint and Figure charting methodology,
which allows one to establish probablemoves, is replaced by volume width measurement, as explained in my various books
on Equivolume. So we have, in a single
system, the ability to apply all the information that we have garnered from multiple
charts in the past.
The interpretation of these charts is perhaps obvious to IFTA members who areprofessionals. In addition, an in depth
analysis is beyond the scope of this brief
article. A book is already in the works andwill soon be available that will show how
to put this methodology to work.

page 18

Chart 5Chart 6

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

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An Unexpected Encounter of the Third Kind…
by Mario Kfoury, CFTe, Board Member, Lebanese Scociety of Technical Analysts (LSTA), Beirut, Lebanon

It all started on a winter afternoon. It was
raining cats and dogs outside. The wind
was gusting with bursts of hail, while
thunder and lightning were splitting thesky, unleashing nature’s wrath as it was
believed a long time ago. I was lucky tohave made it to that neon sign advertising my favorite American-style café
unsoaked, walking swiftly along the city’swall, sheltering me from the havoc above,
my umbrella torn to pieces by the mightof the wind. From my traveling backpack, I
was unpacking my two laptops and mobile
phone, through which I enter and exit themarkets, when I noticed a man sitting
across the place looking at me, scrutinizing me with a smile while sipping his cupof tea. My computers were booted andready to go as the rain drops were building a wall of haze on the glass windows,
drawing shapes that were leaving the visitors reflective.
“Hello, I am Mario,” I pitched at him. “Wellhello Mario, you can call me Pythagoras,”
he said with a smile. “Pythagoras! You mustbe Greek then,” I hit back with a playful
wink. “Let’s just say I come from a long lineage of Greek descendants,” he answeredwith a twist “And you are…an itinerant

trader?” Something in my mind clicked;
my intuition was pointing to somethingfamiliar, some sort of déja-vu, might be
his features or physiognomy, my memory
was telling me otherwise.
“How did you guess?” I reacted, trying
to hide my surprise. “From your books,”
he pointed his finger to the new books I
had just purchased from the local bookstore: The profit magic of stock transaction
timing, by J.M.Hurst, and Martin Pring’s
Trading systems explained. “Yes, indeed.
Everywhere and nowhere are my homes,
and that’s the beauty of the craft—it procures total freedom and independency
for those who are willing to walk the talk.”
It was a time when I had just made andlost 140 grand trading information andreports, such as balance sheets, P/E ratios,
PEG, EPS, 52 weeks highs and lows, fromfinancial sections of popular websites…
thinking the market was a generous benefactor and that whoever had a few dollars to lend could take it back fructified,multiplied by at least two or three. Having
discovered the ruthless, unforgiving natureof the market’s reality and coming froma context of fighting sports, I had madea new resolution: to know everything I
can about my newly encountered foe andlearn to dance his dance no matter thecost or time.
“So how is the market treating you nowadays?” he pursued. “Well, you know what
they say,” I retorted with a little nervous
tick in my face, as if revealing my secret,“Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose,
sometimes you laugh, sometimes you cry.”“Hmm, you sound as if life is a 50/50 strive.
I thought you wanted to make a living fromthe markets. How can you survive if there issuch a high element of chance?” He wenton, “Can I ask you a personal question?”“Sure, go ahead!” I thought in my mind;“huh, make my day whoever you think youare.” “Why do you trade? Why did you pick
this challenging and dangerous craft?”“Well, as I told you, it procures independency and freedom!”“While this is in part true, it is only thesurface of it. What draws us to the market
is collective psychology, we know without
knowing that there is something in thatmarket beyond the financial and material
gains and losses, and then there are thefears of being excluded and of missing out.
There are three kinds of people attracted
to it: the gamblers, the materialists, and thespirituals; this whole world is driven by anexistential question, the eternal search formeanings in an endless loop of simulationand stimulation. So which kind are you?”
I could hear my heartbeat. Holy moly, I
thought, is this guy for real or out of somestory? And the name! Must be for something…either given or earned! “So what do
we do in the face of this eternal, unsolvable, ungraspable search or quest as you
call them?” I snapped back. He responded,“As a market participant, Mario, you haveto transcend, tame your ego. I don’t know
how much study or experience you have inthis field, but the most important aspect oflife, and trading in particular, is of psychological and spiritual dimensions. No one
will succeed in the long run if not in tune
and harmony with universal laws. Let’s havea tea, how do you like your drink?” “It'sokay, I’ll get it, how would you like yours?”

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4
An Unexpected Encounter of the 3rd kind… (continued)

As I returned from the bar, holding two
glasses of steaming tea, he was flipping
through the pages of my books. As soon
as he was holding the cup in his hand, hetook a sip of it and followed, “Contrary towhat many believe, technical analysis is anancient discipline, long before Elliott, Da
Vinci, and Fibonacci, there was a Greek
philosopher mathematician who discovered the magic of squares and numbers,
golden proportions, and founded a religion
based on nature’s laws and metempsychosis (day and night, awakening and sleep
being fractals in the bigger cycle of lifeand death). In today’s world, running at
the speed of light, fundamental analysis
has become obsolete; you need technicalanalysis to keep up with the new pace ofparadigm shifts and dynamic changes thathave occurred since the telecommunication
revolution. Fundamental analysts are like
existentialists, spending their time looking for the whys of things, while technicalanalysts are concerned with the hows: how
to enter and exit the market. Technicalanalysis is a more accurate and leading
discipline. “The chart is your treasure map,
study the chart.”
He put the books down. I felt as if time
was suspended. “What you are reading
is very bright; however, you need to add
to it a metaphysical measure of ethicaldimension. Otherwise your endeavor will
be devoid and dull in this vast and infinite universe.” “And how do I add thismeasure,” I asked dumbfounded. “All ourfears are those of mortals, yet our desiresof immortals,” he carried on. “Beauty is
proportion and moderation. People givedifferent names to the same principles,
then try to interpret and apply them in
an infinite variety of ways, creating conflict and misunderstanding,” he said. “If
we observed this world, nature, and theuniverse, we cannot miss underlying active
laws from which everything is inspired,namely, the law of Karma, from which theGolden Rule is deduced—the principle ofconsensual reciprocity. Technical analysis
can show us this way. Through the ages,
mystics, philosophers, gurus, so-called
messengers, and prophets fasted, mused,searched, and came up with systems ofbeliefs, or what they called ‘truths,’ tolive and achieve self-realization and fulfillment in this world. From Egypt to India,
Greece, China, Japan, and North andSouth Americas, philosophers, thinkers,
gurus, so-called messengers, and prophets dwelled hard and proposed for us The
Way. From the principles of Hermetism,
Kama Sutraism, Poly to Monotheism,
Communism to Capitalism, left or right,
success or happiness, pleasure or pain,
love or hate…There is so much wisdomin this world, yet people choose evil outof ignorance, chauvinism, dogmatism,narrow-mindedness, and ideologies. But
what is the merit of a monk, rabbi, priest,
sheikh, or prophet who finds ‘the truth’
when secluded and isolated on a mountainpage 20

Education Lounge
top, in a desert, or down in a valley when
they then come to the city to herald about
it and claim it as the ultimate truth, if they
were unable to find it in the first place
amongst their people, amid the daily concerns, business, and preoccupations oflife in the city? And why would they veil itin some secret, cryptic message, riddle,
or mystery if their intention truly was tobenefit all human kind? It might be thattruth is so simple, yet to hide it and complicate it, they would draw and seduce theweak, curious, and discontent in life andbring some attention to themselves andtheir philosophy. You trade instruments inthe market and roles in life, but the ultimate commodity is love; everything else isreplacement; every excess, compensation.
Not the kind of exclusive, possessive love
experienced between two individuals (thiskind of love balances our anima/animus,
feminine versus masculine proportions on
the narcissistic level), but rather the typeof love that binds us to the human family, to creation; it is experienced as oneness or empathy and compassion. Thereis an ongoing battle waged in the stock
market, where every support, resistance,
and trend line are frontlines where buyers
and sellers confront. This whole economic
system is dependent on a vicious cycle ofproduction and consumption and a barrelof oil among competing nations. There isan analogy between trading and martial
arts: today’s traders are modern warriors
and modern samurais. You need to beprepared technically, financially, and psychologically. Give back a share of what
you have been rewarded; never trade
above the means of your retribution. The
cardinal sin in life and trading is pride;the only conviction worth having is having
no convictions. You have to accept andembrace uncertainty. Having convictions
closes your senses, affects your perception, and makes you biased in life. All you
need is the Golden Rule and the Golden
Number. But most important, never lose
your head,” he said. “The measure of aman is inversely proportional to the sizeof his ego…”
On that day there was a Golden Rule, agold trade, a Golden Number, and thenever-ending flow of time. …I had made
$10,000 dollars setting up a Fibonacci level
confirmed by all the signals of the Ichimoku
cloud with a 1 to 3 risk/reward ratio, but
most importantly, I had opened my eyes
to a new dimension…

I wish to thank the Lebanese Society ofTechnical Analysts (LSTA), for giving me
the opportunity to learn and develop theskills and discipline of technical analysis, to its actual president, founder, andintroducer to Lebanon, as well as myfirst instructor, Mr. Gregoire Azar andto Pythagoras, Avramis Despotis, andAndreas Thalassinos.

VE T E
SA DA
E
TH

27TH Annual Conference

9–11 October 2014
The Waldorf Hilton Hotel, London
Unravelling the DNA of the Market
The Society of Technical Analysts would like toinvite you to IFTA 2014 in London■ London is an accessible, convenient andefficient travel destination for North America andAsia as well as Europe.
■ London is a cosmopolitan, vibrant and bustlingcity. Having hosted the Olympics in 2012, thecelebratory atmosphere is set to last!
■ The title of the conference “Unravelling the DNAof the market” will allow us to explore some of
the underlying causes of market behaviour.
Headline speakers
Marcus du Sautoy, OBE
Alexander Elder
Conference Secretariat
IFTA2014@contendam.com
Visit the website now to register your interest

conference.ifta.org/2014

26th Annual IFTA Conference

9-11 October 2013 • San Francisco, CA USA

Highlights

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 24

Member NewsThe Australian TechnicalAnalysts Association (ATAA)
T h e A u s t r a l i a n Te c h n i c a l A n a l y s t s
Association (ATAA) held its Annual General
Meeting in October and announced a
new board for the coming year. The current board consists of 12 directors. In thepast, ATAA has operated with a smaller
board, which placed a heavy workload on
the directors who volunteered their time.
With a full board of 12 members, we are
excited to enter 2014 with a greater capacity to tackle our various initiatives.
Our first board meeting took place recently
over a weekend in Melbourne, at the venue
that will host our 2014 conference. The
meeting itself was very congenial and constructive, and directors left with a great

sense of motivation for the year ahead.
Achievements during the meeting included: Getting new directors up to speed withthe operations of the ATAA.
 Electing committee heads for eachportfolio.
 Working on action items to get the ballrolling on our new initiatives.
The board now consists of the following members (heading each portfolio inbrackets):
 Kevin Murphy (President)
 Ian Flack (Education, Qualifications andTraining, and Volunteer Coordination)<co-Vice President>
 Marc Chandler (Speaker Register andBack row (L-R): Marc Chandler, Paul McLaren, Richard Holden, Ian Flack, Michael Gable, and Robert Grigg
Front row (L-R): Mario Conti, Kevin Murphy, Sam Khawaja, Philip D’Souza, and Robert Brain.

Liaison) <co-Vice President>
 Robert Grigg (IT/Website/Business
Process and National Conference) Robert Brain (Member Services) Michael Gable (Editing, Publishing, andAuthoring) Mario Conti (Marketing – Social Network) Philip D’Souza (Marketing) Richard Holden
 Sam Khawaja (Traders Expo) Vladimir Pavasovic
 Paul McLaren (Accounting, Auditing,and Corporate Governance)
The main initiatives for the board that areworth mentioning include: Finalising new branding for the ATAA Completing the new website
 Developing a marketing strategy
 Providing an education revamp in relation
to the Dip TA (ATAA) Targeting new demographics to add
further depth to the ATAA membership Working on ways to help the chapter
presidents
 Ensuring access to quality speakers on
a more consistent basis
We look forward to providing an updateon the progress of these initiatives at thenext quarterly update.

American Association ofProfessional Technical Analysts(United States)
The American Association of Professional
Technical Analysts’ (AAPTA’s) 2014 Annual
Conference and brainstorming will be held
March 28–29 at the Marriott Courtyard, 300
E. 4th Street, Austin, Texas, United States.
Attendees should plan to arrive the night
before the conference. For questions, contact Tom Ham at TomHam@ameriticech.net.
The speakers include Cynthia Kase, Nigel
Bahadur, Doug Janson, Mike Moody, Mike
Jepson, Ian McAvity, and Charles Bassetti,
among others.
This is a fun and exciting event, packed withgreat information. You will have the opportunity to meet and greet fellow analysts andenjoy the intimacy that a cohesive groupof equals brings to this group. Great ideas
have emerged from past meetings and thisis where you will have the opportunity tolearn, share, and engage with one another.
In the brainstorming portion of the meeting, our heads will be put to the test of
sharing our thoughts on new and usedmethods of technical analysis. Eachattendee will have the opportunity to speak
and discuss new studies, adventures as

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 25

Member News (continued)
they relate to technical analysis, new takes
on old methods, and the previous day’s
events. There are no restrictions, other thanthat topics must relate to technical analysis.

Egyptian Society of TechnicalAnalysts (Egypt)
In November, the Egyptian Society ofTechnical Analysts (ESTA) held two ESTA
days. ESTA days are attended by professionals with market experience, in addition to those who want to learn more
about technical analysis. On November
11, there was a panel discussion withprominent market professionals as well as
the vice chairman/dean of the faculty of
Economics and Political Science in Cairo
University. On November 23, Mahmoud
Akl, CFTe, CETA gave a presentation
on “KAGI as a tool for simple trading”.
ESTA is always keen on encouraging
speakers who wish to present inno v a t i ve id ea s w i t h t h ei r co ll ea g u e s .
If you live in Cairo or are visiting and havea topic worth presenting, please contact
our IFTA liaison, iftaliaison@estaegypt.org

Instituto Español de Analistas
Technicos y Cuantitativos (Spain)
In Oc tober, IEATEC was accepted asa new developing member of IF TA .
Welcome IEATEC!

Technical Analyst Society,
Nigeria
In October, the Technical Analyst Society,
Nigeria (TASN) was awarded full member
status. Congratulations TASN!

Society of Technical Analysts(United Kingdom)2014 promises to be an exciting year for
the Society of Technical Analysts (STA), as
it hosts the 27th Annual IFTA Conference on
9–11 October 2014, at the Waldorf Hilton,
London. Headline speakers include Marcus
de Sautoy OBE (the Simonyi Professor for
the Public Understanding of Science and aprofessor of Mathematics at the Universityof Oxford). To receive updates and information on how to book at the early booking rate please visit http://conference.ifta.
org/2014/.
STA is continuing to videotape its talks.
Members unable to attend the meetings in London can benefit from watching the speakers’ presentations online.
Recent speakers include Brian Whitmer,
Elliott Wave International, Linda Bradford
Raschke, and Simon Maelzer.
STA’s annual dinner held in October was
once again a resounding success. Comedianand MoneyWeek commentator, Dominic
Frisby, was this year’s guest speaker.
The end of October saw the start of the
2013–2014 taught courses, with over 30
students enrolling in the Diploma I Course.
This will be followed in January by the STA
Diploma II Course. For more informationon our taught courses, our Home Study
Course, or the Diploma I and II exams,
whether in London or overseas, pleasecontact the STA office at info@sta-uk.org
or visit our website, www.sta-uk.org

Market Technicians Association’sannual 2014
symposium
April 2 - 3, 2014

Learn more at http://symposium.mta.org

at Convene , 730 Third Ave, New York City

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 4

page 26IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
AUSTRIA—VTAO* Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Österreichs www.vtao.at
BOSNIA and HERZEGOVINA—SMS* Society for Market Studies trzisnestudije.org
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
CROATIA- CTAA* Croatian Technical Analysis Association www.huta-ctaa.hr
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA* Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
NETHERLANDS—DCTA Dutch Commission of Technical Analysis
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
PAKISTAN—STAP* Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan www.stap.com.pk/index.html
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SAUDI ARABIA—SSTA* Saudi Society of Technical Analysts www.saudi-sta.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SPAIN—IEATEC* Indtituto Español de Anakistas Tecnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
TUNISIA—ATAT* Association Tusisienne des Analystes Technique
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.org

President Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D. (SAMT)Email: rolf.wetzer@ifta.org* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule
IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficientand cost-effective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
September

Education articles: August 15—send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: September—send submissions to admin@ifta.org

March Issue

Education articles: February 15

All other content: March 1

June Issue

Education articles: May 15

All other content: June 1

December

Education articles: November 15

All other content: December 1

For more information and to advertise, visit our website:
http://www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

Vice-President—the Americas William Chin, MBA (CSTA)
Email: wchin@e3m.com
Vice-President—Asia Pacific Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CFTe, FRM, CMA, CMT (NTAA)
Email: akira.homma@ifta.org
Vice-President—Europe, Conference Director Deborah Owen, FSTA, CFTe (STA)
Email: editor@irc100.com
Vice-President—Middle East, Africa Mohamed Ashraf Mohfauz, MFTA, CFTe, CETA (ESTA)
Email: mohamed.ashraf.esta@gmail.com
Treasurer Ralf Böckel, CFA (VTAD)
Email: ralf.boeckel@freenet.de
Education Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe
Email: gregor.bauer@vtad.deExam Management Director Jeanette Schwarz-Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S.
Email: optnqueen@aol.com
Accreditation Director Roberto Vargas, CFTe (TSAASF)
Email: roberto.vargasr@ifta.org
Marketing and Membership Director Dan Valcu, CFTe (AATROM)
Email: ta@educofin.com
Secretary Maurizio Milano (SIAT)
Email: maurizio_milano@libero.it
Strategic Development Director Robert Grigg (ATAA)
Email: robert.grigg@ifta.org
Online Development Director Roman Bogomazov (TSAASF)
Email: roman.bogomazov@ifta.org
Journal and Newsletter Director Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT)Email: aurelia.gerber@ifta.org
Website Content Director Akihiro Niimi, MFTA (NTAA)
Email: niimia@aifaminc.com

STAFF
Executive Director Beth W. Palys, FASAE, CAE
Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Senior Graphic Designer Jon BenjaminAccounting Dawn Rosenfeld
Director of Editorial Services Lynne Agoston

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org

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1

IFTAJOURNAL CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSThe IFTA Journal is an annual publication
established by the International Federationof Technical Analysts. It is collated by acommittee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics,
students and practitioners of technicalanalysis in all arenas. It is an excellent
reference source for anyone interested
in technical analysis, containing a wealthof resource material.

directly or indirectly, on the field oftechnical analysis; they may be drawn
from such areas as:

The IFTA Journal is the onlyinternational journal of technicalanalysis with original contributions
from all continents coveringdevelopments in technical analysis inglobal markets. The Journal reaches
leading practitioners and students ofTA throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional
resource. Its archival online publicationon the IFTA web site will make youroriginal work available as a future
resource to the worldwide communityof technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that coverdevelopments impacting, either

Contributions must be submitted in
English with British grammar required.

• Basic market analysis techniques• Indicators—sentiment, volume
analysis, momentum, etc.
• Global and intra-global TA• Styles of TA• DataCredibility And Recognition

Language• The changing role of TA in theinvestment community.

Writing Style
Papers should be written in a Thesis
style and a guide can be found in thefollowing links:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/
member-resources/d-ifta-style-StyleGuide-to-Thesis-Writing.pdf

We would especially like to see
contributions that draw from areas notpreviously examined, and/or topics
tangential to technical analysis.

http://www.ifta.org/public/files/
member-resources/d-ifta-style-MSGuidance-on-Presentation.pdf

The above list is just a guide andshould in no way be considered
restrictive. We wish to make theJournal open to new and innovativeideas from all areas of TA and thosethat connect with it.

Referencing

Submitting Contributions
Registration and submission ofcontributions is via the web atwww.ifta.org, or by email to the editor,
Aurélia Gerber, journal@ifta.org.

All texts referred to in the paper must
be appropriately referenced with abibliography and endnotes (footnotes
will not be accepted.) Please use thefollowing guides:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/
member-resources/d-ifta-style-AGuide-To-Referencing-[Oxford].pdf
Responsibility for the accuracy ofreferences and quotations is theauthor’s. We expect these to bechecked thoroughly by the author
before submission.
All references are to be included
as endnotes. No separate list ofreferences or bibliography should be
provided.

Figures, Charts and Tables
Illustrations and charts must be
referred to by Figure Number andsource (when applicable). Tables must
be referred to by Table Number andsource.

Length Of Contribution
Papers should be approximately 1200
to 3000 words, with supporting graphs
and charts.

FormatWe ask for submission in MS Word orother text format as well as a PDF.
Charts and graphs may be in gif
or jpeg, but we ask that authors
also keep a tif format in case it isrequired for printing purposes. An
Excel spreadsheet supporting yoursubmission may also be submitted.

IFTAUPDATE2013
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Publication Agreement

Editorial Timeline
December 13

Call for papers distributed

May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerDecember 2014 Web publication
For more information, see out website http://www.ifta.org/publications/journal/

Licenses And CopyrightSelecton of Contributions

We require all submissions toinclude the author’s signature on the
Publication Agreement at the endof this document. (see Publication
Agreement.)

Contributions are selected basedon their content by the IFTA Journal
Editorial Committee. Please understandthat we cannot accept all contributions.
Depending on the number and qualityof the submissions and the Editor’sfindings, selections are not negotiable.

Unless another license is noted, we willassume that your contribution is under
this license.

The following is an agreement between

author(s) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc., concerninga work written by the author(s).

Author’s Grant of Rights

October 2014 Worldwide distribution

We may publish on a website. We
require that you place your submission
under the Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/.

page
page282

Remuneration
The International Federation ofTechnical Analysts is organised andoperated by volunteers and supported
by its members. We ask you tounderstand that we will not be able topay for contributions.

Questions
For more information, please contact
journal@ifta.org.

The author(s) grants to the publisher exclusive first publication rights in thework, and further grants a non-exclusive license for other uses of the work forthe duration of its copyright in all languages, throughout the world, in all media.
The publisher agrees to publish the article in the IFTA Journal. The publisher shall
include a notice in the work stating “Copyright [author(s)’s name(s)].” Readers of thearticle may copy it without the copyright owner’s permission only if the author(s) andpublisher are acknowledged in the copy, and copy is used for educational, not-forprofit purposes.”

Author(s)’s Ownership of Copyright
Copyright in the work remains with the author(s).

Warranty of Authorship
The author(s) warrants to the publisher that the article is original and that he/she is/are the sole author(s) and has the full power to make this agreement.
The author(s) indemnifies the publisher against any losses and other expenses,
including reasonable attorney’s fees, after final judgment of any claim or action
against any of all of these warranties.
Author(s) name(s)Author(s) signature(s)DateUpon acceptance, please fax or email completed Publication Agreement to: IFTA
Headquarters, (fax) +1 301-990-9771 or (email) admin@ifta.org

IFTAUPDATE2013
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IFTAJOURNAL RATE CARD
Editorial and Readership Profile

Editorial Committee and Staff

General Information

Cancellation and Changes

The annual IFTA Journal publishes original,
well-documented papers and articles
on a diverse range of topics related tothe technical analysis of financial andcommodity markets. The Journal provides
colleagues and interested persons
with continuing education in TechnicalAnalysis (TA). The broad editorial content
helps colleagues remain informed of thedevelopments and leading body ofwork in Technical Analysis.

EditorPrinciples Governing Advertising in the
IFTA Journal

We will send out an acknowledgement
confirming your order. You will be required
to check that your ad and scheduling arecorrect. Any changes, cancellations orcorrections must be communicated to IFTA
in writing, by fax, e-mail or mail, prior to thesubmission closing date.

The IFTA Journal is the only international
journal of technical analysis reaching a
global audience of interested and dedicatedpractitioners of TA throughout the financial
community. It is read by Analysts, FundManagers, Financial Writers and otherdecision makers throughout the international
financial industry.
The IFTA Journal is distributed on the
web and a print copy is provided to IFTA
colleagues and delegates at the yearly
IFTA International Conference, building
awareness, visibility and providing extra
exposure for your message.

Staff

Aurélia Gerber
Linda Bernetich

Organizational Affiliation
International Federationof Technical Analysts, Inc.
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Telephone+1 (240) 404-6508

Emailjournal@ifta.org

Preferred Position Rates
Backcover (cover 4)
Inside back (cover 3)
Inside front (cover 2)$1,800.00$1,500.00$1,300.00

2015 Issue Deadline Date
June 30, 2014

Material Specifications
Full page ad format = 8.5” x 11”(215 x 280mm) 300dpi JPEG or PDF. Include
crop marks and room for bleed.

Circulation and Readership

Printing

Total Circulation
Published on the web
Coverage
Worldwide
Readership served Institutional Analysts,
Account Mangers,
Fund Managers,
Investors and Students
Publication Schedule December 2014

Perfect binding Journal/Book Format,
8.5” x 11”, 80# gloss weight. Aqueous
Coating on covers. (This is a clear water
based coating that adds a high gloss finish
and additional protection to the Journal,
and will give your printed advertisement aricher look.)

These principles, developed jointly by theeditorial committee of IFTA, are applied by
the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts (IFTA) to ensure adherence to thehighest ethical standards of advertising andto determine the eligibility of products andservices for advertising in IFTA print andelectronic publications.
As a matter of policy, IFTA will sell
advertising space in its publication when
the inclusion of adverting does not interferewith the mission or objectives of IFTA.

Orders, Materials & Payment
Please send all orders, materials, payments
and related communications to IFTA atadmin@ifta.org.

Advertising Rates (pricing in USD)

The appearance of advertising in IFTA
publications is neither a guarantee nor an
endorsement by IFTA.

Full Page$ 1,200.00

Advertising Acceptance Policy

2/3 page$1,056.00

1/2 page$823.00

1/3 page$545.00

1/4 page$300.00

All advertisements must be submitted inwriting. Advertising is subject to approval
by IFTA. All advertisements must be nondiscriminatory and comply with all applicablelaws and regulations. IFTA reserves theright to decline, withdraw and or copy editat our discretion. Every care is taken to
avoid mistakes, but responsibility cannot be
accepted for clerical or printer’s error.
Payment
Prepayment by check, credit card (Visa,
Master Card or American Express) or wiretransfer is required for all ads. Bank details
will be provided to you upon request.