第28回原子力委員会
資料第1号

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Reflections and Considerations from theDirector‐General of the NEA
William D. Magwood, IV
Director‐General
Nuclear Energy Agency
28th Regular Meeting of theAtomic Energy Commission
July 20, 2022

© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

The NEA: 34 Countries Seeking Excellence in
Nuclear Safety, Technology, and Policy•A premier international platform
for cooperation in nuclear
technology, policy, regulation,
research, and education.

•34 member countries + strategic
partners (e.g., China and India).

•8 standing committees andmore than 80 working parties
and expert groups.

•Global relationships withindustry, universities, and civilsociety.

© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

NEA countries operate about 81%of the world's installed nuclear capacity© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development2

Major International Cooperative Frameworks
NEA Serviced Bodies

28 Major Joint Projects• Generation IV International Forum (GIF)
with the goal to develop new fission technologies
with greater sustainability (including effective fuelutilisation and minimisation of waste), economic
performance, safety and reliability, proliferation
resistance and physical protection.

• Nuclear safety research and experimental data (e.g.,thermal-hydraulics, fuel behaviour, severe accidents).

• Multinational Design Evaluation Programme(MDEP) - initiative by national safety authorities toleverage their resources and knowledge for new
reactor design reviews (ABWR, AES2006,
AP1000, EPR, HPR1000).
• International Framework for Nuclear Energy
Cooperation (IFNEC) – 65-country forum for
multilateral discussion and analyses of a widearray of nuclear topics involving both developedand emerging economies.

• Nuclear safety databases (e.g., fire, common-causefailures).
• Nuclear science (e.g., thermodynamicsof advanced fuels).
• Radioactive waste management (e.g.,thermochemical database).
• Radiological protection (e.g., occupationalexposure).
• Nuclear Education, Skills and Technology
Framework (NEST) (promoting the development of a
new generation of subject matter experts.)© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Global Forum on Nuclear Education
The NEA Global Forum on Nuclear Education,
Science, Technology and Policy is a platform forinternational cooperation in nuclear technology
education. The Forum:– Provides NEA engagement with academic
institutions developing the next generation ofnuclear science and technology experts– Brings creative thinking to policy challenges– Provides academic institutions around the world
with a framework for interaction, co‐operation,and collective action

First Exploratory Meeting – Paris, 24‐25 July 2019

– Held a special workshop in Tokyo this week todiscuss the revitalisation of nuclear
technology education in Japan© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Fukushima Daiichi:
Long‐term Impacts on the Nuclear Sector•

Last year, NEA issued an authoritative study to assist
policymakers and the general public to understand the multidimensional issues stemming from the accident;•Presents the current situation and reviews the responses byJapanese authorities and the international community since
the accident;•Examines the future of the site and that of the affected region
and population, outlining areas for further improvement;•Makes 9 strategic recommendations to enhance theremediation effort and the lives of those impacted by theaccident.
© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan after Fukushima Daiichi:Impacts and Changes•

Added to the tragedy caused by the Great East Japan
Earthquake and tsunami by leading to dislocations andcreating widespread public anxiety and mistrust•

Led to the long-term shut-down of Japan’s nuclear powerplants; after 11 years only 10 are able to operate.

•Set the stage for the establishment of the Nuclear
Regulatory Authority (NRA), a strong, independent
safety regulator.

•

Caused severe negative impacts to Japan’s nuclear energy
technology development and educational programs© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan after Fukushima Daiichi:
The Site and Surrounding Communities•

Significant progress has been made toward sitestabilization and remediation, but decades of work lay
ahead•

Long-term impacts on the surrounding communities
persist; further efforts are needed to assure recovery•

Issues such as disposition of contaminated water andeventual disposal of wastes remain complex and often
contentious•

New technologies and new clean-up approaches will beneeded to address all clean-up challenges; international
engagement can accelerate these efforts© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan after Fukushima Daiichi:
The Contribution of Nuclear Energy•

Before 3/11, Japan expected to obtain about 40 percent ofits electricity from nuclear energy before 2030; today, theshare is only about 7 percent•

None of Japan’s BWR reactors have returned to operation
since they ceased operations after 3/11•

Japan’s national plan calls for 20-22 percent nuclear by2030, which would require all restartable plants to bebrought online•

Japan’s decarbonization will be very difficult—if not
impossible—without a major nuclear energy component© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan after Fukushima Daiichi:
Japan’s Nuclear Technology Infrastructure•

Funding for many ambitious technology R&D programs
was reallocated to other needs; goals and targets are not asclear as before 3/11•

University programs have eroded substantially and few
young Japanese are interested in nuclear energy careers•

Key nuclear research facilities were shut down after 3/11
and others await restart•

Government ministries and agencies have lost important
technical and policy expertise over the last decade; unlessthese capabilities are rebuilt, progress will be very difficult© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan after Fukushima Daiichi:
Japan’s Nuclear Safety Approach•

The first two NRA Chairman are to be lauded for leading
the NRA through an unprecedented situation and rapid
establishment of regulations and nuclear safety practices•

Nuclear regulation in Japan is far more conservative thanin other OECD countries; however, the fact that Japan
endured the 1F accident makes this understandable•Criticisms that NRA is too isolated and moving too slowly
to enable plant restarts do not always reflect the societal
context in which NRA conducts its work

© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

The World is Changing Rapidly In the wake of COP26, many OECD and emerging
economies reassessed their decarbonization strategies.
 The focus on 2030 targets for CO2 reductions have forced
both increased investment in energy and a much larger
degree of reality.
 Rising prices and energy supply concerns in the context ofthe ongoing war in Ukraine have completely changed thefocus of policymakers—energy security is now thedriving issue in many capitals.
 Increasing numbers of governments are looking tonuclear energy as part of their overall energy strategies.

© 2022 Organisation
Economic Co-operationand Development© 2021 Organisation
for forEconomicCo-operationand Development

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Countries are Reviewing their Energy Strategies
Many are looking to Nuclear Energy© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Nuclear in Emissions Reduction Pathways
Role of nuclear energy by 2050
Nuclear growth
Capacity (GW)
(2020‐50)

ClimatetargetNuclear innovation

Description

High
Scenario

2°C

Not included

Conservative projections based on current
plans and industry announcements.

792

98%

IEA (2021c)

Net Zero
Scenario
(NZE)

1.5°C

Not included but
HTGR and nuclear
heat potential areacknowledged.

Conservative nuclear capacity estimates. NZEprojects 100 gigawatts more nuclear energy
than the IEA sustainable development
scenario.

812

103%

Shell (2021)

Sky 1.5Scenario

1.5°C

Not specified

Ambitious estimates based on massive
investments to boost economic recovery andbuild resilient energy systems.

1 043

160%

IIASA (2021)

Divergent
Net ZeroScenario

1.5°C

Not specified

Ambitious projections required tocompensate for delayed actions anddivergent climate policies.

1 232

208%

Bloomberg NEF(2021)New Energy
Outlook
Red Scenario

1.5°C

7 080

1670%

Organisation

Scenario

IAEA (2021b)

Explicit focus on SMRs Highly ambitious nuclear pathway with large
and nuclear hydrogenscale deployment of nuclear innovation.

Many pathways require global installed nuclear capacity to grow significantly, often more than doubling by 2050.
© 2022 Organisation
Economic Co-operation
and Development© 2021 Organisation
for for
EconomicCo-operation
and Development

13Nuclear Energy Can—and Must—Play a Larger RoleIn Support of Global Net‐Zero Goals
In its 2018 special report, the IPCC reviewed
90 pathways consistent with a 1.5°C scenario – i.e.,pathways with emissions reductions sufficient to limit
average global warming to less than 1.5°C.
On average, the scenarios reflect the need for global
nuclear capacity to triple by 2050 to 1160 gigawatts, up
from 394 gigawatts in 2020.

© 2022 Organisation
Economic Co-operation
and Development© 2021 Organisation
for for
EconomicCo-operation
and Development

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The “Energy Trilemma”
There are no magic solutions tothe Energy Trilemma.

EnergySecurity

National conditions, available natural
resources and policy preferences willcontinue to shape energy policy decisions.
EnergyEnergyAffordability

Sustainability© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
1. Fukushima Prefecture and the 1F Site
2. Future Approaches to Nuclear Energy
3. Nuclear Safety and Regulation
4. Human and Research Infrastructure© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
1. Fukushima Prefecture and the 1F Site
– Forensic Investigations—Technical analyses related to understanding
the 1F accident progression and formation of core debris can provide
both unique knowledge and enable a center of international scientificcollaboration—IF Japan plans accordingly.
– Holistic Approach—A holistic approach to 1F remediation, waste
management, and community development would have tremendous
benefits© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
1. Fukushima Prefecture and the 1F Site (continued)– Consider—Clarifying the government’s interest ingiving priority to technical studiers related to the 1F
accident and core debris.
– Consider—Developing a holistic plan for 1F
remediation, related activities, and community
development that involves all players in Japan. NEA
can assist if desired.
© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
2. Future Approaches to Nuclear Energy– Nuclear Energy can be the Key to Success for Japan’s Energy andEnvironmental Goals—But much needs to be done to enable nuclear toplay a expanding role. Public, political, and legal support is essential.
– Operation of Existing Plants is Vital —Japan’s commercial reactors
are well‐operated and well regulated. Policymakers can do more toenable their long‐term operation.

© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
2. Future Approaches to Nuclear Energy (continued)– Japan could be a strong market for Generation IV and SMR
technologies—Advanced technologies can provide the answer to publicconcerns about safety; more could be done to highlight their potential inJapan and create opportunities to deploy them– Consider—Conducting an NEA Systems Cost study to examine Japan’senergy options as it seeks to decarbonise AND consider strategies fornear‐term demonstration of advanced nuclear in Japan© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
3. Nuclear Safety and Regulation– Public Confidence—NRA’s practices have helped rebuild publicconfidence in nuclear regulation, which is essential for any future nuclear
operations– Normalisation—NRA was created in the aftermath of a crisis; it isreasonable for the government to review the NRA’s structure andoperation more than a decade after the crisis© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
3. Nuclear Safety and Regulation (continued)– Consider—Launching a comparative analysis of nuclear regulation
legislation, practices, structures, and policies of Japan’s approach incomparison to highly successful approaches overseas to inform astrategic review by the government. NEA can support such an effort.
– Consider—Enabling a different salary and benefits structure for nuclearregulation professionals to retain valuable talent at NRA and encouragehigh‐quality candidates to join the NRA.
© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Future:
Areas for Consideration
4. Human and Research Infrastructure– Research Facilities—Japan’s facilities are not only national assets—
they are essential international assets to OECD member countries– Educational Infrastructure—Without clear action to encourage young
people, Japan will suffer a dehabilating expertise gap in the coming years– Consider—Instituting attractive scholarship programs to revitalize
Japan’s nuclear education system AND accelerating plans to restart key
research facilities (e.g., JOYO, STACY)© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Thank you for your attention© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development© 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development24