IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 42015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 1a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

President’s Report to Colleagues

3

IFTA2016 Sydney

Dear IFTA Colleagues,

5

Calendar At-A-Glance

7

Congratulations to John Bollinger,
CFA, CMT, Recipient of IFTA’s Lifetime
Achievement Award!

7

2016 IFTA Journal Now Available!

8

Member NewsIN THIS ISSUE

Education Lounge
9 Candlestick Patterns: Relevant Factors
20 Congratulations New and Re-Elected
IFTA Board Members (Term 2015–2018)
21 MFTA and CFTe 2016 Exam Dates
23 IFTA Journal Call for Submissions
24 IFTA Member Societies
24 IFTA Update Schedule
24 Board of Directors

Next Issue: March 2016
Submission Deadlines
Education articles: February 15—
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: March 1—
send submissions to admin@ifta.org
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

It’s hard to believe that over two months
have passed since the annual IFTA conference in Tokyo—it feels like it was only a
few days ago to me.
Whether it was the outstanding ensembleof speakers, the successful choice of conference venue, or the tremendous effort
exerted by our IFTA colleague and conference director Akira Homma, IFTA 2015
Tokyo was a big success. I would like togive equal tribute to the local NTAA conference committee and last, but definitely
not least, the NTAA president, Mr. Aoki,
and the NTAA board of directors.
In recognition and appreciation for his
significant contribution to the TA disciplineand global TA community, we presented
the IFTA Lifetime Award this year to John
Bollinger.
As is the case every year, IFTA’s Annual
General Meeting (AGM) was held one dayprior to the conference. This AGM wasquite eventful, as several colleagues andboard directors stepped down after generously and passionately serving on the IFTA
board for one or two consecutive terms.
On behalf of IFTA, I’d like to start bythanking Dr. Rolf Wetzer, the former
IFTA president, for his exceptional workand significant accomplishments on several fronts during his term as president
and director, and for his continuous
support to IFTA and me even after his
term was over.
I also would like to thank and bid farewellto Roberto Vargas (former accreditation
director), Deborah Owen (former conference director–2014/VP Europe), Roman
Bogomazov (former online development
director/conference director–2013), Ralf
Boeckel (former treasurer), and William
Chin (former VP Americas) for their heartfelt efforts, continuous commitment, and

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of theInternational Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc.
www.ifta.org, a not-for-profit professionalorganization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

much appreciated and recognized contributions during their terms as IFTA directors. I sincerely wish them all the best in
their future endeavors.
IFTA also received new colleagues as directors of the IFTA board. I welcome Carlos
Jaureguízar (IEATEC–Spain), Karin Roller(VTAD–Germany), Ron William (SAMT–Switzerland), Sudarshan Sukhani (ATA–
India), Saleh Nasser (ESTA–Egypt), andTom Hicks (STA–United Kingdom). Personal
profiles and positions of our newly elected
IFTA directors can be viewed on the
IFTA website under “board of directors”.
With regard to societies, I am pleased
to announce that Ins tituto Españolde Analistas Tecnicos y Cuantitativos(IEATEC) has been accepted as a full
member society of IFTA in 2015. Ourcongratulations go to Carlos and MiguelJaureguízar and the IEATEC board for thisaccomplishment.

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 2
20150829̲QUICK̲FactSet.pdf 1 2015/07/29 13:11:23

President's Report continued
At the AGM, a decision was madeby vote to exclude the Bosnian andCroatian developing societies fromIFTA because they breached IFTA’s
bylaws—either by not being properly managed or by not fulfilling theirduties to IFTA.
Our next conference will be held in
Sydney, Australia, in the second half ofOctober 2016. The conference will behosted by one of the oldest IFTA member societies: the Australian TechnicalAnalysts Association (ATAA). It has
been well over 19 years since ATAA
has hosted an IFTA Annual Conference(1997 in Sydney). The theme of the 29th
Annual Conference is “Theory to Profit:
Achieving Better Returns ThroughTechnical Analysis”, with a focus onwhat works for successful traders. We
are promised by the hosting society“A unique opportunity to interact with
cutting-edge speakers”. I am personally very excited and would definitely
encourage all of you to attend theconference in the metropolitan city ofSydney in 2016. So, please continue tocheck the ATAA website as well as the
IFTA website for further details about
the conference.
Also, it is worth mentioning that hardcopies of the IFTA Journal were madeavailable to delegates during the conference, while an electronic copy iscurrently available on the IFTA website,
thanks to the efforts of Journal director

Aurelia Gerber and the team members
involved in producing the publication.
Concerning our webinar program, awebinar was organized last November
by IFTA marketing and membershipdirector Dan Valcu. The guest speaker
was Dr. Howard Bandy, and the
topic was “Monte Carlo Techniques:
Application to Trading”.
On another note, last November, wewere overwhelmed by the sad news andtragic events that occurred in France,
Lebanon, Tunisia, and the UnitedStates. On behalf of IFTA, I would liketo express to AFATE, LSTA, and ATAT
our deepest sympathies and solidarity.

C

M

Y

Last, but not least I would like to thankall member societies who shared yourupdates and news with us. Sharing
information, knowledge and experience is and will always be, in spirit, thereason why IFTA exists and continues
to do so.
Best wishes for the New Year andhappy holidays to all!
Best regards,
Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA

IFTA President

CM

MY

CY

CMY

K

The theme of the next conference is “FromTheory to Profitability: achieving better
returns through technical analysis”—
Technical analysts are evidence-based
decision-makers and can demonstrate theeffectiveness of their theories by being
profitable.

Sydney Australia October 2016
From Theory to Profitability
Achieving Better Returns Through Technical Analysis

Accordingly, there will be an emphasis onpractical and demonstrable outcomes fromtools, processes and techniques used bysuccessful traders and investors.
While technical analysis covers a broad
range of theories and techniques, it can bedifficult for traders and investors to discern
those that are nice to know from those thatcan be shown to have real profit-making
potential. The conference theme will focus
on what works for successful traders.
The annual IFTA conference will be inAustralia for the first time in several years
and will provide a unique opportunity forboth professional and non-professional
practitioners (and sponsors) to see, hear,and meet with acknowledged cutting-edge
speakers, and to network with each other.
The IFTA conference brings together likeminded individuals from across the world,
particularly from the IFTA-affiliated member societies in 31 countries.
Sydney is one of the most exciting cities inAustralia, with one of the most beautiful
natural harbours in the world—the ATAA
and Sydney are proud to host this year’s
conference. This is going to be a conference that you can’t afford to miss—welook forward to seeing you in Sydney.

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

Congratulations
New MFTAs!
Koki Nozawa, CFTe, CMTA, MFTA
MFTA Research Paper Title: Contrail Index
Koki Nozawa graduated from the
Economics Department of Chuo
University and joined SMBC
Friend Securities Co. Ltd, where
he started his career as a salesperson at its Ogikubo Branch.
He was then transferred to the Domestic Stocks
Section of the Investment Advisory Department,
and his current responsibilities include investor
inquiry services, data distributions, and otherservices related to domestic stocks. He occasionally serves as a visiting lecturer at various
branches of the company.

Masayuki Tashiro, CFTe, MFTA
MFTA Research Paper Title: New Risk
Hedge Method Utilizing Volatility Indexes
Masayuki Tashiro is a market
a n a l y s t a t F I S CO L t d . H ereceived his B.A. in Japanese
history from Chuo University.
He started his career in 2003 at
Citibank Japan. At FISCO Ltd.,
which he joined in 2010, he analyzes overall
trends of markets index, covering Nikkei 225,
TOPIX, stock futures, spots, and options. Since
2015, he has also been in charge of bonds andforeign exchange. He has been a periodic commentator on Nikkei CNBC and Radio Nikkei,
occasionally appearing as a newscaster on theradio. Also he has been a frequent contributor
to economic magazines such as Toyo Keizai,
The Economist magazine (Japan) and others.

page 4

Congratulations New CFTes!
Joseph Bechara (STA)
Ramin Bokaian (STA)
Lim Boon (STA)
Antony Collins
Umberto De Paoli (STA)
Sean P. Dillon
Viktor Dragoev (STA)

Emmanuel Egbo (STA)
Gema Merdeka Goeyardi (AATI)
Colin Gordon (STA)
Riccardo Hertel
Christoph Jenckel (STA)
Lim Jian How (STA)
Shefali Kapoor (ATA)
Kyriakos Karoullas (STA)

Sheng Hoong Kau (STA)
Shweta Koticha (STA)
Romain Lathiere (STA)
Andy Tan Lian Kooi (STA)
James McSweeney (STA)
Omar Mohamed
Jean-Francois Paquin
Bradley Parkes

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Chrystala Parmaxi (STA)
Fabio Piga (STA)
Antoine Reymond (SAMT)Andreas Peter Schindwolf(VTAD)
Dr. Bhooshan Shanbhag
Phua Pei Shin
Huashan Sun (TASS)IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 5

Calendar At-A-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly

Presentations from local and international speakers on acomprehensive range of topics (e.g., sharemarket, CFDs, options,futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

Topic

STANZ
(New Zealand)

Various

Epsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Monthly

Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia.
All monthly meetings are free to members. Visitors are welcome
to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors fee is $30.

ATAA (Australia) Various

Various

Varieswww.ataa.com.au/meetings

Monthly

Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as
CSTA Chaptersambassadors for the CSTA and plan social and educational events (Canada)
for the area. Events include presentations by industry professionals
and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings.
Chapters also play a vital role in their communities by connecting
individuals and promoting technical analysis.

Various

Various

Varieswww.csta.org

Monthly

Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London,
usually on the second Tuesday of every month, except for asummer break in August.

STA

VariesBritish Bankers Association
Pinners Hall105 – 108 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1EX

VariesKatie Abberton, info@sta-uk.org

7 January –25 March 2016

STA Diploma Level 2 Course

STA

Various

London School of Economics

18.00-20.30

Katie Abberton
info@sta-uk.org

January

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration
opens for April 21st examination through IFTA website

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

February

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative
Path, Session 1 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

4

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—deadline toregister for April 21st examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1
paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

March

April

21

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org www.ifta.org

May

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1
application, outline, and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

June

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

July

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path, Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 6

Calendar At-A-Glance continued
15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

15

IFTA Journal applicants notification of acceptance/rejection IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2
application, outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

TBA

IFTA 29th Annual Conference:
Theory of Profit: Achieving Better Returns ThroughTechnical Analysis

IFTA and ATAA

TBA

SydneyVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

TBA

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Examination

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1
paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

November

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber, Journal Director

December

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

31

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org publications/journal/

AugustOctober

Tradesignal GmbH

51/2 (w 170 x h 120 mm)

CMYK

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SEARCHIFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 7

Congratulations to John Bollinger, CFA, CMT,
Recipient of IFTA’s Lifetime Achievement Award!
John Bollinger is the president and founder of
Bollinger CapitalManagement, an investment management company that provides technic ally driven money
management services. Bollinger CapitalManagement also develops and provides
proprietary research for institutions andindividuals.
Mr. Bollinger is perhaps best known to the
public as the creator of Bollinger Bands,
which he developed in the mid-1980s.
Over the past 30 years, investors and traders worldwide have come to view Bollinger
Bands as a most reliable tool for assessing
expected price action, and the bands arefeatured on most financial charting software and websites.
Mr. Bollinger is also well known for his
many years of market analysis and commentary on television—first on Financial
News Network, where he was the chiefmarket analyst—and subsequently on
FNN’s successor, CNBC.
Mr. Bollinger, a long-term proponent ofrational analysis—the combination of technical and fundamental analysis—was thefirst analyst to earn both the Chartered
Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered
Market Technician (CMT) designations.
He is a frequent lecturer on technicaland quantitative analysis in the UnitedStates and abroad. His book, Bollinger on
Bollinger Bands, has been translated into
11 languages.
Mr. Bollinger’s Capital Growth Letter has
been published since 1987. It provides
market commentary, charts and investment advice for the average investor
employing a technically driven asset allocation approach.
Mr. Bollinger has developed several investor websites:
www.BollingerBands.com
www.BollingerOnBollingerBands.com
www.EquityTrader.com
www.BBForex.com
www.MarketTechnician.com
www.PatternPower.com
In addition, he created the Bollinger Band
mobile application for Android and iOS
devices.

Foundation, the Market Technicians
A s s o c ia t io n a n d t h e I n te r n a t io n a lFederation of Technical Analysts. Mr.
Bollinger is also a member of the CFA
Institute.
Mr. Bollinger is the recipient of theTechnical Securities Analysts Associationof San Francisco Lifetime Award for
Outstanding Achievement in TechnicalAnalysis and the 2005 Market Technicians
Association Annual Award for Outstanding
Contribution to the Field of TechnicalAnalysis.

Lifetime Achievement Award
The Lifetime Achievement Award honors
the career achievements of a technicalanalysis practitioner who has made extraordinary contributions to the field of technical analysis. The recipient will exemplify
and promote the mission of IFTA througheducation and research. This honor will beconsidered for a technician who has demonstrated the highest standards of personal
and professional conduct and who is heldin great regard by his/her peers and theinvestment community at large.

Past Recipients
He is a former board member of theMarket Technicians Association Education

2014—John J. Murphy
2013—Dr. Henry (Hank) Pruden

2016 IFTA
Journal Now
Available!
We are pleased to announce that the2016 IFTA Journal is now available forviewing and download from the IFTA
website. Please share with your societycolleagues and/or post to your website.

The art of mixing modernity
and tradition,very much seenin the Japaneseculture, is what
we strive toachieve in thisy e a r ’ s I F TA
Journal. Somevery old techniques are being revisited, and some newer techniques are
evoked, both bringing us a little further on the knowledge journey. The
principles of technical analysis remain
the same, however: price discounts
everything; price movements are nottotally random—they move in trends;
and history has a tendency to repeat
itself...
—Aurelia Gerber, MBA CFA,IFTA Journal Editor

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 8

Member NewsSAMT (Switzerland)

In Memorium

The autumn 2015 Swiss
Te c h n i c a l A n a l y s i sJournal contains a series
of interesting research
articles. The first one,written by Professor
Dominick Salvatore, isan essay that evaluates
the prospects of theworld economy. The content of the article
has been the subject of his speech at the2015 Lugano Fund Forum, together with theNobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz. We havean interesting article from Martin Pring thatteaches us how to use technical indicatorsand intermarket approach to analyse trends
in the Dollar Index. Hank Pruden continues
his series of articles about Cusp Catastrophe
Theory, showing us how this theory has
been applied to forecasting the recent market drawdown. We have two interesting
contributions about cycles and the forward
line by Charles Kirkpatrick and a study ofAlberto Vivanti for a breadth indicator thatuses stock cycles.

AATI (Indonesia)

The deadline for contributions to the spring2016 Journal is 15 April 2016. If anyone isinterested in contributing an article, pleasecontact Mario Valentino Guffanti at mario.
guffanti@samt-org.ch.

AATI is sad to announce
the sudden passing of
Mr. Mochammad Yusuf,
AATI chairman, on 12
December 2015.
Mr. Yusuf was born on
6 May 1964, and began
his career in commodity futures trading in the late 1980s. He wasa pioneer of technical analysis in Indonesia
since the early 1990s and was one of AATI's
founders, serving as chairperson until 2015.
Mr. Yusuf had been involved with IFTA
since 1995. He attended the IFTA Annual
General Meeting (AGM) in Sydney (1997)
and Tokyo (2001). After AATI became a full
member of IFTA, he attended IFTA AGMs
and conferences, including Sharm el Sheik(2007), Chicago (2009), and Singapore(2012). Mr. Yusuf had many ideas on how
to grow AATI. Most recently, he led some
AATI members in their involvement ontechnical analysis standardization in
the Indonesia Professional Certification
Authority (IPCA).
We send our deepest sympathies to
Mr. Yusuf's family.

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 9

Education Lounge

Candlestick Patterns: Relevant Factors
By Carlos Jaureguízar, Noesis AF CEO, IEATEC Chairman, IFTA Development Director (Academic Development and Society Affairs)
Carlos may be reached at carlos.jaureguizar@noesis.es.
In 1986, Seiki Shimizu published the English
version of Japanese Charts of Charts(1961), translated by Greg Nicholson. Thisis the main reference found in the workof Steve Nison’s (1991), who popularized this technique in the West. Just one
year later, Gregory L. Morris publishedPowercandles and, in 1995, Candlestick
Charting Explained, increasing the number of reversal patterns from 48 to 65 andcontinuation candlestick patterns from 14
to 23 due to reciprocal patterns and gaps
found in the literature. As an example,
the “Descending Hawk” appeared as thecomplementary pattern for the “Bullish
Homing Pigeon” (Morris, 1995).
The characteristics of candlestick patterns
make them well suited for classification.
Some of them, such as the “Above the
Stomach” pattern, were recently developed and incorporated into modern technical analysis. I think each pattern corresponds to a specific market mood and,
therefore, the psychology of buyers andsellers is shown by the pattern, bringing
to mind two key elements:

1. Bulkowsky tested 103 patterns in 2008.
Some years later, Majed Fahad Alamri(2015) analyzed 140 patterns while
researching candlestick target levels.
This suggests that for the coming
years, more patterns may arise. It may
be interesting to investigate new line
combinations. But, if we are to build
hundreds of theoretical combinations
that would multiply extraordinarily
the number of available candlestick
patterns, this will require a proper
filter to separate the wheat from thechaff. Most of them will likely prove
themselves random combination oflines with no statistical interest, but
I’m finding some steganographicallyhidden ‘black swans’ using this approach.
To illustrate this concept, check out
how Tsung-Hsun Lu and Jinji Chen

(2013) categorized two line patterns,
regardless of its use in the real world,
through a combination of four elements.
1, 2, 3 and 4 represented the rankingof the opening and closing prices ofthe first and second day of the twoday pattern. For example, 1234 meansthat the opening price of the first day
is the highest one, the closing price ofthe first day is the next one, followedby the opening price of the second
day and finally the closing price ofthe second day as the lowest price.
Or think about a 4123 pattern. It may
be a “Bullish Engulfing” pattern if it ispreceded by a downtrend. However,a 1423 pattern could correspond to a
“Piercing Line” (after a bearish trend)
only if the closing price of the second
day is higher than the previous midpoint.
Therefore, these theoretical 22 bullish

and 22 bearish patterns would expand
just by adding different lines, sizes andshadows, and parametrizing them. Of
course, if we take into account threeor more line patterns, we would geta huge number of combinations, but
most of them useless.
2. If, as many researchers and practitioners
think, every pattern shows a specificmarket mood, they will perform quite
differently. In that case, we should nottrade a “Shooting Star” in the same
way as a “Bearish Engulfing” pattern.
Many aspects are different, like thefrequency or efficiency, but also false
signals, both positive and negative.
As my research moved forward, I observed
a number of factors that I think are relevant to the academic community:

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 10

Education Lounge

Candlestick Patterns: Relevant Factors continued

1. Sample: Many studies are usuallyconducted with few assets and maybe
not enough data. I thought that it wasinteresting to analyze equities fromdifferent geographic locations, like theUnited States, Europe and Asia, andwith a wide capitalization range. WhenI analyzed several thousand assets from2001 to 2015, I did not find any relevant
difference between them. How effective apattern is does not depend on the market
but on the specific pattern. Therefore,a hammer shows the same trend bias
and reflects the same psychologicalperception in the Japanese stock market
than in Europe or the United States.
To get an overview about the data,using 1.6 million lines (meaning daily
open, high, low and close) that weretaken from the S&P 500 components(from 2001 to 2015), 175,000 patterns
showed up. This is consistent with Morris(1996), who found one pattern every 8–9
days. When thousands of equities anddifferent timeframes are involved, thesample expands significantly to morethan 1 million patterns.
2. Data Periodicity: Typically, candlestick
patterns are studied on a daily basis. I
have found it interesting to include weekly
and intraday data in the study. Unlike
the geographic element, the periodicity
shows some relevant differences in many
patterns that should be taken into account.

3. The Trend: There is no consensus
about the length of the prior trend orother parameters required to consider
it valid. So far, there are two main
approaches used by the academic
community:

A. 3-Day Moving Average (MA3).
B. 10-Day Exponential Moving Average(EMA10).
According to Lu, Huang and Hsu (2013),
the definition of trend plays a crucial

Bringing the strengths of the entire
Mizuho group to bearin our securities services
At Mizuho Securities, we’re aiming to be the securities firmthat shares joy with you in achieving a better, richer tomorrowrole in the performance of candlesticks,
with MA3 showing better performanceof candlestick patterns than EMA10.
To avoid trend problems I decided not
to use technical indicators but rather
wavelets. Please see my previous article

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 11

Candlestick Patterns: Relevant Factors continued

in IFTA Update (2014), “Trend Lengths
and the Ichimoku Time Element”, for abetter explanation.
4. The Method for Confirming Japanese
Candlestick Patterns: There are several
ways to determine whether a candlestick
pattern has worked properly or not. One
is to use breaking gaps after the pattern,
but that will dramatically reduce thesample to less than 5%. Other options
include measuring the evolution of theprice within a few days after the pattern,
confirming it with the next real body’scolor or with the next day’s opening(these are the main ones), or using a
price range like the last line’s low andhigh or, as a better choice, the lowest
and highest patterns’ prices. Accordingly,
bullish patterns will be confirmed by aclosing price above the range, while
they are dismissed when the price closes
below it. In a symmetrical way, bearish
patterns are confirmed by a closing
price below the range.
Unfortunately, none of these methods
guarantees that there has been a reversal or continuation of the trend, whichis the essence of candlestick patterns.
It therefore emphasizes the need for awell-resolved framework to tackle thisproblem. Using the pattern’s range toconfirm it will bias the metrics in what I

Figure 1: To avoid the Range Effect, they only take into account those patterns
that affect the trend as expected.

Education Lounge
call the “range effect”, which may leadto false confirmations. For example,
the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern ends
in the top of the range, thus showing
a tendency for closing above the pricerange. Unless starting in the middle
point, any random range will show astatistical tendency for breaking it one
way or the other.
To solve this problem, I tested the confirmation with an additional filter, requiringa reversal or continuation of the trend as
it was expected.
5. Holding Period: Following Nison andMorris, candlestick patterns have a
Figure 2: White hammers effectiveness
depending on the days inside the pattern’s range.

short-term effect. Based on this, pattern
performance is typically measured after
a short period of time, usually 10 days.
According to my research, the shorttime effect is true. Most patterns showsubsequent trend averages ranging
between 5 and 10 days. However, a fixed
period generates a lot of noise and asignificant distortion of the results that
may reject useful patterns.
The advantage of using historical
data is that the exact moment andlevel where the trend changes can bedetected, allowing the performance
to be measured with no distortion atall. On the contrary, when we face realmarkets, we will need another rule totake profits and exit the position (suchas a simple trendline).
6. Days Inside the Range: I have found thatthe main element affecting the pattern’s
performance is the number of candles
inside the range. More candlestick
patterns evolve as expected when therange is broken the first day. In fact, they
approach a random behavior after twoor three days inside the price range,
confirming the idea that candlestick
patterns have a short-term effect.

Other Results
Parametrizing Patterns: Some results
have been very interesting. For example,“Matching Low” patterns present poor

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 12

results, but they improve when the pattern is parameterized by limiting the lower
shadows to almost non-existent shadows.

drastically improve when the karakasa line
appears after a white big candle and the
shadow does not retrace more than 60%.

Not as Expected Patterns: Some patterns did not work as expected. For
example, a “Hanging Man” pattern is
expected to reverse the trend, but thepercentage of time that it does is lessthan 50%. This behavior has also beenreported by Bulkowski (2008). Related topattern parametrizing, a white “Hanging
Man” will statistically perform better thana black one, and the performance will

Besides, some patterns were found useless, like the “Inverted Hammer”, the“Harami” (both bullish and bearish) andthe “Harami Cross”.
At this point, I would also like to talk about
two additional elements. When the pattern’s range is broken, false breakdowns
may be seen both in the confirmation(entering the position) and in the rejecting(triggering the stop loss) sides. “Shooting
Stars” (black and white) and “Bullish
Engulfing” patterns show less than 1%
false rejecting signals. On the contrary, 1
out of 10 white “Hanging Men” will trigger
an inadequate stop loss.

Conclusion

References
For additional information about candlestick pat terns, check out Nison,
Morris, Bulkowsky and Pring’s books andCarginalp, Laurent, Marschall, Horton
Fock, Irwin, Lu, Chong, Alamri, among
other authors of working papers.

As candlestick patterns show a specific psychological mood or market perception, theymust be individually approached with specificparameters to optimize the results. Besides,
new patterns will likely arise in the future thatmust be filtered and properly categorized.

Aiming to be a Leading Player in ASIA
From Japan to Asia and to the World
Under our management plan“Ambitious ５”, we are striving to become one of the
10 largest securities companies in Asia － the“Asian 10”.
We, the Tokai Tokyo Securities, are a dedicated provider of financial products,
services and solutions that meet the needs of our customers.
Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., Ltd.

Tokai Tokyo Securities (Asia) Ltd.

7-1, Meieki 4-chome, Nakamura-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 450-6212

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 13IFTA 2015 Tokyo: 28th IFTA Annual Conference
By Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CMA, CFTe, CMT, FRM; IFTA 2015 Tokyo Conference Director; Vice President, Asia Pacific, IFTA

Dear IFTA colleagues,
The 28th annual conference of IFTA (IFTA2015 Tokyo) was held in Tokyo (Keio Plaza
Hotel, Tokyo) from October 2–4, following the pre-conference workshop and theAGM held on October 1. From the feedback we have received, it was a highly successful conference. We received numerous
kind and heartfelt comments from delegates saying that they had enjoyed theprogram immensely. On behalf of IFTA, I
would like to express my deepest gratitude
to all who supported this event.

Conference Program Summary
During the three days of the conference, there were 38 individual presentations (26regular presentations, 11 “Power Hour” presentations, and one video message), fivepanel sessions, two pre-program workshops, and one Technical Walkabout, apart fromone pre-conference workshop held on October 1 (before the AGM). Comprising 47

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

sessions in total (excluding opening andclosing ceremonies and lunchtime sponsor
presentations), it was a densely packed
program designed to help the delegateslearn as intensely as possible. And, wheneach day’s sessions were over, a social
event was offered every evening. (Figure 1)

Delegates
241 delegates (including accompanying partners) from 24 countries acrossthe world registered for the conference(Figure  2). 136 of them were overseasdelegates (from outside Japan) and 105
were from Japan. Of the 136 overseas delegates, 32 were from the Americas (including two who were from South America,
located on the other side of world fromJapan), 38 were from Europe, 11 were from
the Middle East/Africa, and 55 were from
Asia-Pacific (e.g., Japan).
Japan is a distant country for many delegates. As the IFTA conference director, I
would like to extend my sincere thanks to
all the delegates who came all the way toTokyo and participated in this conference.
What stood out, in terms of delegate
geographic distribution, was a very sharp
increase in the number of delegates from
Asian countries. Many (if not all) of themwere young financial professionals, and thiswas their first time attending an IFTA conference. I am grateful to those delegatesfor choosing IFTA 2015 Tokyo as their first
IFTA conference. Also, I greatly appreciate
their society leaders, who promoted thepage 14

Figure 1: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Conference Program Summary Day-time Sessions
Pre-con(Oct 1)

Day 1(Oct 2)Day 2(Oct 3)

Individual presentations

10of which:

10

Regular presentations“Power Hour” presentations

Day 3(Oct 4)

Total

19

9

38

8

8

26

11

Video message
Panel sessions

1

Pre-conference workshop

Evening Social Events
Pre-conf (Oct 1)
Day 1 (Oct 2)
Day 2 (Oct 3)
Day 3 (Oct 4)

Cocktail Party
Welcome Reception
Dinner Tour
Gala

1

11
1

1

3

5

1

1

Pre-program workshops
Technical Walkabout
Total

1
1

Figure 2: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Delegates

1
12

21

1

2

13

1
47

By country of residence

Australia
BrazilCanadaChina
Egypt
FranceGermany
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Malaysia
Netherlands
Nigeria
RussiaSaudi Arabia
Singapore
Spain
Switzerland
TaiwanUnited Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Total* Registration basis

11
2
2
7
1
3
7
9
1
10
2
105
13
2
2
1
1
3
5
8
1
7
10
28
241

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 15IFTA Annual Conference continued
conference and encouraged their members
to participate. I hope we will see manydelegates from this region attending future
IFTA conferences.

Figure 3: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Speakers

In terms of professions, we saw a considerable increase in the number of delegatesfrom world-leading investment management organizations, including some of theworld’s largest sovereign wealth funds,
mutual funds, independent asset management firms, and hedge funds. We believe
this was an encouraging phenomenon, as
we think this reflects the global trend of proactively incorporating technical analysis (TA)
into the decision-making process at major
investment management organizations.
Also, we noticed a notable increase in thenumber of delegates who were from, or
had close relations with, the academic
community. This is a positive sign, as we
believe it reflects growing recognition andacceptance of TA in the global academic
community.

Speaker Lineup
A record number of 58 selected speakers
from 14 countries presented at IFTA 2015
Tokyo (Figure 3, Figure 4). Perhaps thiswas the single most striking trait of IFTA
2015 Tokyo that distinguished it from otherevents.
Of the 58 speakers, nine were CFTe
charter holders, four were MFTAs, four
were MSTA/FSTA, and 12 were CMTs.
And it should be noted that 10 were CFA

By countries of residence

Australia

2

China

1

Egypt

1

France1Germany

1

Italy

2

Japan

24 *

Malaysia

1

Russia1

Singapore

1

Spain

2

Switzerland

2

United Kingdom

6

United States

13

Total

58

* Originally: 19 from Japan, 2 from United States
1 from United Kindgom, 1 from Germany, 1 from Sweden
Japanese—19, Non-Japanese—39

Designations
CFTe

9

MFTA

4

MSTA / FSTA

4

CMT

12

Technical analysis
designations–total

29

CFA

10

Ph.D.

8

CAIA

2

CIIA

2

CMA (SAAJ)

3IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 16IFTA Annual Conference continued
Figure 4: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Speakers
1Ralph Acampora, CMTManaging Director, Altraia Wealtg Management

New York, USA

30 Maurizio Milano

Head of Technical Anlaysis, Banca Sella Group

Milano, Italy

2

Toshiki Aoki

Chairman, NTAATokyo, Japan

31 Yutaka Miura, CFTe

Senior Technical Analyst, Mizuho Securities

Tokyo, Japan3

Roman Bogomazov

Adjunct Professor, Golden Gate University

San Francisco,California, USA

32 Naohiko Miyata, CFTe

Chief Technical Analyst, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley

Tokyo, Japan

33 Ryoji Musha, CMA

President of Musha Research Co., Ltd.; Advisor, Deutsche Securities Inc.;
Advisor, Deutsche Asset Management (Japan)

Tokyo, Japan

4

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT

President and Founder, Bollinger Capital Management

California, USA

5

Rüdiger Born

Managing Director, BORN Traders; Founder and Head of Trading, BORNSTAHLBERG & PARTNER

Tokyo, Japan / Frankfurt,
Germany /34 Kei Nakagawa

Fund Manager, Equity Investment Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management

Tokyo, Japan

35 Akihiro Niimi, MFTA

Executive Director, AIFAMTokyo, JapanFounder, Aerodynamic Investments Inc.

South Carolina, USA

36 Stefan Nilsson

CEO and Founder, HFC Advisory Group; President and Founder, Hedge Funds ClubTokyo, Japan / Sweden

37 Katuhiko Okada, Ph.D.,

CEO/CIO, Magne-Max Capital Management; Professor of Finance, Kwansei
Gakuin University - Institute of Business andOsaka, Japan

6

Constance (Connie)
Brown, CMT

7

Ian Copsey

Founder of Harmonic Elliott Wave and Private Equity Fund Chief Analyst

Tokyo, Japan / UK

8

Tom Dorsey

President and Co-founder, Dorsey Wright & Associates

Richmond, Virginia, USA

38 Yasuaki Okamoto

Chairman, Osaka Dojima Commodity Exchange

Osaka, Japan

9Peter Douglas, CAIA

Principal, CAIA Singapore

Singapore

39 Hiroko Ota

Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS); Economic
Advisor to Japanese Government (Acting Chair, Council for Regulatory
Reform; Member of the Government Tax Commission); Chairwoman of theBoard of Directors, Mizuho Financial GroupTokyo, Japan

10 Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe, MFTA Executive Director and Head of the TA Dept., HC Brokerage (HCB), IFTA Director

Cairo, Egypt

11 David Furcagj, CFTe, MFTA

President and Co-founder, Highwave360

Paris, France

12 Mark Galasiewski

Editor, Elliott Wave International’s Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast (APFF)

Georgia, USA

40 Viktor Pershikov, MFTA

Consultant Analyst, Forex Club

Moscow, Russia

13 Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA

Founder and CIO Ghiribizzo GmbH; IFTA Director

Basel, Switerland

41 Henry (Hank) Pruden, Ph.D.

Professor, Golden Gate University

San Francisco, California,
USA

14 Robin Griffiths

Chief Technical Strategist, ECU Group

London, UK

42 Edward J. Rogers

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer, Rogers Investment Advisors

Tokyo, Japan

15 Roberrt Grigg

Past National President of the Australian Technical Analysts Association

Melbourne, Australia

Examination Director, International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA)New York, USA

16 Murray Gunn, MSTA, CFTe

Head of Technical Research, Global Research, HSBC Bank

London, UK

43 Jeanette Schwarz Young,
CFTe, CFP, CMT, MS

17 Feng Han, CFA, CMTHead of Technical Research in Asia, Fidelity Investments

Sydney, Australia

44 Shuichi Seo, CFA

General Manager of Research & Planning, T&D Asset Management

Tokyo, Japan

18 Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA,
CMA, CFTe, CMT, FRM

Joint General Manager, Operations Headquarters, Tokai Tokyo Securities; Vice Tokyo, Japan
President (Asia-Pacific) & Conference Director, IFTA

45 David Sneddon, MSTAManaging Director, Credit Suisse Investment Banking Division

London, UK

46 Adam Sorab, FSTA

Head of Technical Research at CQS

London, UK

19 Carlos Jaureguízar FrancésCEO, Noesis AF; Presidente del Instituto Español de Analistas T écnicos y
Cuantitativos (IEATEC)

Madrid, Spain

20 Miguel Jaureguízar

Secretary General, IEATEC (Spanish Technical Analysts’ Association); Chief
Operating Officer, Noesis A.F.

Madrid, Spain

21 Craig Johnson, CFA, CMTManaging Director and Senior Technical Research Strategist, Piper Jaffray

Chanhassen,
Minnesota, USA

22 Phillip Kahler

Senior Quant Analyst, IntalusFrankfurt, Germany

47 Tomoya Suzuki, Ph.D., CMTA Associate Professor at Ibaraki University, Department of Intelligent Systems
Engineering

Irabagi, Japan

48 Megumi Takarada, CFA, CIIA Senior Equity Analyst, Investment Research Division, Toyo Securities Co., Ltd.

Tokyo, Japan

49 Frank Teixeira, CFA, CMT

Senior Vice President, Partner, and Director of Technical Analysis, Wellington
Management

Boston, Massachusetts,
USA

50 Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Senior Vice President, Director of Investor Relations, Opus Bank

Irvine, California, USA

51 Howard Wang

Founder of the Breakout Candlestick, Breakout Relative Strength Index (BRSI), FTAA / Chinaand Profit-Taking Theory CTO, Tradesoft Corp

52 Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D.

Founder and CEO, Ghiribizzo GmbH; IFTA President

Basel, Switerland

53 Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Senior Tactical & Market Timing Strategist for the Technical Research team,ECU Group

London, UK

23 David Keller, CMTManaging Director of Research for Fidelity Investments

Boston,Massachusetts, USA

24 Dato’ Nazri Khan, Ph.D.,
MSFA, CFTe

Vice President and Head of Retail Research, Affin Investment Bank; Presidentof Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

25 Eiji Kinouchi, CMＡ

Senior Strategist and Chief Technical Analyst, Daiwa Securities

Tokyo, Japan

26 David Lundgren, CFA, CMT

Vice President and Technical Analyst, Wellington Management

Boston, Massachusetts,
USA

54 Katsunari Yamaguchi, Ph.D., CFA President, Ibbotson Associates Japan, Inc.

Tokyo, Japan

55 Ryuichi Yamamoto, Ph.D.,

Professor, Waseda University - School of Political Science and Economics

Tokyo, Japan

27 Kathy Matsui

Vice Chair, Chief Japan equity strategist, Co-head of Macro Research in Asia,
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd

Tokyo, Japan

56 Yasuhiro Yonezawa, Ph.D.

Chairman of the Investment Committee, Government Pension Investment
Fund (GPIF)Tokyo, Japan

28 Oki Matsumoto

CEO, Monex Securities

Tokyo, Japan

57 Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D.

President, CMD Laboratory Inc.

Tokyo, Japan

29 Ivano Menabue

Educator, Technical Analyst

Milano, Italy

58 Yutaka Yoshino, CFTe

Chief Technical Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities

Tokyo, Japan

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 17IFTA Annual Conference continued
charter holders and eight had their Ph.D.
They all had distinguished professional
experiences.
From the beginning, I wanted to invite
only excellent speakers and set a highly
demanding speaker selection standard. I
did not imagine we would be able to invite
so many eminent speakers in the sameplace, at the same time.
As the IFTA conference director, I am
extremely thankful to all the speakers who
presented at this conference. I am gratefulto them for their willingness to share withother conference participants the knowledge, experience, and insights they haveacquired through years of professional
activities.
During the three days of the conference,
the attending delegates heard all of theprofessionals speak, and it was exactly thisknowledge, experience and insights contributed by the speakers that impressed
many delegates.

Lifetime Achievement Award: Mr.
John Bollinger
IFTA’s Lifetime Achievement Award waspresented to Mr. John Bollinger by the
IFTA president, Rolf Wetzer, at the closing
ceremony. This award recognizes an individual who has made a distinguished contribution to the progression of TA, made alasting contribution to greater recognitionof TA as a vital tool for investment management, and exhibited leadership andprovided inspiration to other TA practitioners and researchers.
Mr. Bollinger was the first dual holder
of CFA and a TA credential (CMT) in theworld. He has been advocating for nearly
30 years his “Rational Analysis” approach,which is an integrated approach incorporating TA and fundamental analysis as wellas quantitative and behavioral approaches.
The contributions he has made to the fieldof TA through his activities are invaluable.
Congratulations, John!

IFTA President Change: Rolf Wetzer
to Mohamed El Saiid
Rolf Wetzer, who had been serving as the
IFTA president since 2012, stepped downat the closure of IFTA 2015 Tokyo, and our
new president, Mohamed El Saiid, took
over the post. In recognition of Rolf’s longtime dedication, a recognition gift waspresented to him by Mohamed at the closing ceremony. Thank you very much Rolf!

Social Events
Following each day’s scheduled program,a social event was held.
 Day 1 (Oct 2): A Welcome Reception
was held in the Eminence Hall of the
Keio Plaza Hotel.
 Day 2 (Oct 3): A dinner tour to a Japaneserestaurant located in the traditional
downtown area of Tokyo was held.
 Day 3 (Oct 4): A gala party was held at the
Meiji Memorial Hall, which is a historic hallin Japanese-style architecture, standing

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

within the magnificent surroundings ofa traditional Japanese garden. They
offered several entertainment programs.
The programs, including a “mochi” (ricecake) pounding show (in which anyone
was able to participate) and a “taiko”(powerful traditional Japanese drum)
performance, were popular, especiallyamong the overseas delegates.

Special Thanks
Sponsors
As the IFTA conference director, I would
like to extend my deepest gratitude to
all the sponsors that provided generous
support to make this conference possible (Figure 5). The 13 sponsors together
contributed a record amount of sponsorship monies in the history of the IFTA
conference. Their support was essential
to making the conference economicallyfeasible. Apart from the two regular longtime supporters (Bloomberg, Intalus/
Tradesignal), we enjoyed the support of
11 new sponsors.

Supporting organizations
Also, we would like to acknowledge that
we received strong support from a number of leading organizations to make thisconference successful (Figure 6), and I am
grateful to all of them.
 We were encouraged by the support
from the Japan Exchange Group (JPX),
the owner of the Tokyo Stock Exchange
and the Osaka Stock Exchange. I hope
we will be able to receive support frompage 18

local exchanges as we hold future IFTA
conferences.
 I hope the cooperation with the CAIA
Association this time will lead to greater
productive cooperation between our twoorganizations and with other professional
bodies for financial professionals.
 We received strong support from Golden
Gate University. Three professors/lecturers
from this university played key roles as
speakers at IFTA 2015 Tokyo. I hope thiswill lead to greater cooperation between
IFTA and universities.
 The support we received from CFA Society
Japan (CFAJ) was very encouraging andpowerful. Four of its directors, including
its president, came and presented at
this conference. The CFA program
has the image of being fundamental
analysis-oriented (which may be true),but it also recognizes the usefulnessof TA. Some may be surprised to hearthat TA is incorporated in the CFA study
program, which means that to be a CFA
charter holder, one is required to study
TA. I hope the cooperation between
IFTA and CFAJ over IFTA 2015 Tokyo,
coupled with the major contributions
made to the conference by CFA charterholding speakers (including Mr. John
Bollinger), can lead to greater futurecollaboration between IFTA (and thewhole TA community) and the CFA
community.

Mr. Kitataro Ozawa
I would like to extend my special thanks to
Mr. Kitataro Ozawa, the graphic designer

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 19

who designed and created all the wonderful graphic works for the conference,
including the conference logo, conference
brochures, and conference program, underincredible conditions.

Figure 5: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Sponsors
Platinum

Quick FactsetGold

Mizuho Securities, Bloomberg

SilverSunward Trading, Tokai Tokyo
Securities, ADVFN, Marusan
Securities, Ichiyoshi Securities,
Monex, Intalus/Tradesignal

As the IFTA conference director, I would
like to extend my special thanks to all mycurrent and former IFTA board colleagues,
including Rolf Wetzer (who led as IFTA
president until the closure of the conference), Mohamed El Saiid (our new president), Deborah Owen (IFTA 2014 London
conference director), Roman Bogomazov(IFTA 2013 San Francisco conference
director), and Robert Grigg (IFTA 2012
Singapore conference director), for thevery strong support they extended to me.

BronzeSecurities Japan, Naito
Securities, Mito Securities

NTAA staff and volunteers

Figure 7: NTAA Members & Volunteers

IFTA board members, former
conference directors

Lastly, I would like to acknowledge andthank the staff and volunteers of the NTAA
who worked tirelessly to help prepare andorganize the conference (Figure 7).

Thanks to all
Apart from those mentioned above, there
have been numerous unnamed people who
helped us organize the conference. I am
grateful to all of them.

IFTA 2016 Sydney
Next year’s IFTA conference will be held
in Sydney, Australia, hosted by ATAA. Seeyou in Sydney!

Figure 6: IFTA 2015 Tokyo Supporting
Organizations
Japan Exchange Group (JPX)
Japan National Tourist Organization (JNTO)CAIA Association
Golden Gate University (GGU)
CFA Society Japan (CFAJ)

Toshiki Aoki
Mieko Nishimura
Tsuyoo Atsuchi
RisaTobita
Toshiki Tobe
Mayuko Morinaga
Kazuyuki Namikawa Naomi Kitahara
Kakuya Kojoh
Tetsuya Yamaguchi
Seitaro Shinozuka
KozoShimizu
Yukitoshi Higashino
Toshihiro Ito
Noriko Niijima
Hirotetsu Ito
Joe Young
Nobuaki Tomita
Ian Copsey
Midori Hamazaki
Hidetoki Yokoi
Takashi Nakamura Katuhiko Nakamura
YoshihisaHasegawa YoshinobuSakai

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 20Congratulations New and Re-Elected
IFTA Board Members (Term 2015–2018)
Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA
SAMT (Switzerland)
Journal and Newsletter Director
Aurélia Gerber is a founderand chief investment officer of Ghiribizzo GmbH.
With 17 years in institutional asset management,
she was responsible forthe construction and the
management of products in fixed income,money market, equity, balanced, alternative, and emerging markets. She had regular contact with clients for follow-up andacquisition presentations.
Aurelia is skilled in both technical and fundamental investment analysis. She started
her career with HSBC Asset Management
London, where she was an analyst on the
Global Emerging Markets team. She joined
the asset management group of Siemens
AG Austria, where she developed theinvestment process for equities in CEE
countries. She subsequently served as
senior equity fund manager in Europe with
Bawag Invest Vienna and later joined Bank
Sarasin Basel as a director to take the leadand manage Asia Pacific equities. She thenbecame senior fixed income manager anddeveloped credit analysis tools. She managed the assets of the bank according to

the regulatory framework and the ALM
strategy as well as rule controlled investments and special mandates.
Aurelia holds both an MBA from Queen’s
University Canada and a master’s degree
in management and finance from Lyon
Graduate School of Business. She has
earned the qualifications of Chartered
Financial Analyst (CFA) and the Investment
Management Certificate (IMC). Aurélia is amember of the Swiss Association of Market
Technicians (SAMT).

Thomas Hicks
STA (United Kingdom)
Vice President of Europe
Tom Hicks is a co-founder
and trader at IFTM Capital,a systematic trading business implementing technical analysis. He started
trading at Standard Bank,
where for five years, he ran
the G7 desk focusing on fixed income andthen trading emerging market rates andoptions. It was here that he starting looking
at technical analysis with systematic trading
and afterwards, gained the MSTA diploma.
He actively used the qualification to provide
advice to clients as an options broker at anumber of brokerage firms. His backgroundis in engineering and he holds a degree insystems engineering (MEng) from Warwick
University. Tom is a member of the boardof directors of the Society of TechnicalAnalysts (STA).

Carlos Jaureguízar
IEATEC (Spain)
Development Director (Academic
Development and Social Affairs)
Carlos Jaureguízar, Noesis
AF CEO and IEATEC’s( S p a n i s h Te c h n i c a l
Analys t s A s sociation)
chairman, has a successful
track record in the financeworld. Noesis AF acts as abusiness consultancy, focused on strategy
and sales in the financial sector, especiallyregarding online development, reach, andadded value projects. Prior to joining
Noesis AF, Carlos spent five years in the
Treasury Department of BBVA in Madrid,
applying technical analysis techniques toreal markets. He is an expert in candlestick
charts, Elliott Waves, Ichimoku, and traditional technical analysis.
Carlos has written articles in many journals,
and he usually collaborates with media. He
has written two books related to financial
markets: High Yields in the Stock Exchange

and other Financial Markets (1999) andCandlestick for Traders (2008).
Carlos earned a master’s degree in financial
markets (UAM–Madrid) and is ACI FX andMM Level I certified. He also passed the DEA
exam (Dissertation title: “Applying the BlackLitterman Model to Tactical Risk Allocation).

Saleh Nasser, CMTESTA (Egypt)
Education Director
Saleh Nasser is an executive
director and the chief technical strategist of Pharos
Holding. Prior to joining
Pharos, Saleh was the chief
technical strategist of CIBC
from 2001 until 2008 anda member of the CIBC investment committee, as well as a member in the CICapital
investment committee (responsible for setting up strategies for CI Asset Management
Company). Saleh worked as a chief technicalanalyst in Flemings CIIC from 2000 until
2001, and he was responsible for following
up on the Egyptian market and global equities markets as well as for training tradersand employees on short-term and intermediate-term trading tactics. Saleh completed
his CMT designation from the Market
Technicians Association (MTA) in 2001.

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 212015 IFTA Board of Directors Nominations (Term 2016–2018) continued
Saleh has served on the board of directorsof IFTA for many years, and he served as
IFTA’s secretary general and head of education. He worked on a committee that was
responsible for updating IFTA’s bylaws.
He also heads the Education Committeeof the Egyptian Societ y of TechnicalAnalysts (ESTA) and is the past presidentof ESTA. Saleh is the originator of the CETA
Professional Program, sponsored by the
Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts—oneof just a few international degrees accredited by IFTA as equivalent to the CFTe.

model-based portfolios for Credit Lyonnais
and Deutsche Bank in London. He also
served as the chief fund manager for the
Bank of Tokyo–Mitsubishi UFJ and thehead of the global marketing team incubating and distributing Japanese hedge fundproducts to international investors at the
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

In 2003, Saleh was invited to speak inWashington, D.C., about his new indicator(Deviation Oscillator) at the IFTA annual international conference hosted by the Market
Technicians Association (MTA) of the UnitedStates. It is worth mentioning that ESTA
hosted the IFTA annual conference in 2007 in
Sharm El Sheikh, and it was one of the mostsuccessful conferences in technical analysis.

Karin Roller, CFTe

Saleh has been invited as a speaker atmany seminars and conferences.

Akihiro Niimi, MFTANTAA (Japan)
Development Director (Asia-Pacific Affairs)
Akihiro Niimi is the executive director of AIFAM, a
hed g e f und com pany
based in Tokyo and New
York. Prior to this, he wasa quantitative portfolio
manager, building andma naging q ua nti t ati ve inve s t m ent

Akihiro holds a degree in naval architecture from Osaka University and the
MFTA accreditation. He is a member of
the Nippon Technical Analysts Association.

VTAD (Germany)
Treasurer
Karin Roller is an independent trader and tradercoach. She holds theG e r m a n St o c k B r o ke r
license and worked at thestock exchange in Stuttgart
at the Trading Surveillance.
She is a board member of the German
Association of Technical Analysts (www.vtad.de)and is in charge of the chapter in Stuttgart.
Karin also has authored several books about
technical analysis, including Ichimoku
Trading, Set Goals with Fibonacci and theGerman Trading für Dummies. Karin writes
stock analysis and articles for leading financial newspapers. She runs seminars andworkshops on technical analysis for private
and institutional Investors, including preparing seminars for the CFTe exams. Karinholds a degree in biology from the Univerity
Hohenheim/Stuttgart.

MFTA and CFTe 2016 Exam Dates
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions
www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
Date

21 AprTBA Oct

Registration deadline

4 Mar

18 AugRegister at
www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php.
Syllabus and Study Guide
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit http://www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

28 Feb

31 JulApplication/Outline Deadline

2 May

2 Oct

Paper Deadline

15 Oct15 Mar(Session 1) Register at
www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at
www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/MFTA/IFTA Journal Style Guide

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 222015 IFTA Board of Directors Nominations (Term 2016–2018) continued

Sudarshan Sukhani, CFTe, CeTAATA (India)
Secretary and Sponsorship Director
Sudarshan Sukhani is technical analysis commentator for CNBC–TV18, India’s
most popular business TV
channel. His morning analysis is watched by hundreds of thousands oft r a d e r s e v e r y d a y.
Sudarshan is also founder and chairman of
S2 Analytics Pvt Limited (s2analytics.com),
a company that provides software andanalysis tools to traders. He is a short-term
trader in index instruments. His daily newsletter is published by moneycontrol.com,
India’s largest financial services website.
Sudarshan is founder and president of the
Association of Technical Analysts, India.
He speaks regularly at investor and trader
conferences and has participated in over
100 CNBC–TV18 Investor Camps all overIndia. Sudarshan holds an honors degree
in commerce and CFTe qualifications intechnical analysis. He blogs regularly atsudarshanonline.com.

Ron William, MSTA, CMT
SAMT (Switzerland)
Development Director
Ron William is senior tactical and market timing
strategist for the TechnicalResearch team at the ECUGroup. Founded in 1988,
ECU is a global macro
research, advisory andinvestment firm specialising in currency risk
management. An accomplished strategist,
trader, and educator, Ron has 15 years offinancial industry experience working forleading economic research and institutionalfirms, producing macro research and trading strategies. He specializes in macro andsemi-discretionary analysis, driven bycycles and proprietary timing models.
Ron’s work, most recently as part of his
institutional market advisory firm (RWA),
received global industry recognition withthe 2014/2013 finalist award for “Best
Independent Research House for FX” and2012 finalist award for “Best TechnicalAnalyst of the year.” His market insights arefeatured regularly across notable industry
publications and financial media programs.
Ron worked at Bloomberg L.P. for four
years as a senior technical analyst specialist, responsible for training/consultation
across the EMEA region, and contributed
to the development of charting strategies
and the technical analysis platform of theBloomberg Professional Service.
He is an active member of IFTA, vice president and head of the Geneva Chapterof the Swis s A s sociation of Market
Technicians (SAMT), and honorary member of the Egyptian Society of TechnicalAnalysts (ESTA). He holds both the MSTA
and CMT professional designations.

 

       
        
       




         
           

       
        



IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 23

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSIFTAJOURNALIFTA Journal Call for Submissions
The IFTA Journal is an annual publication established by
the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It iscollated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It is an
excellent reference for anyone interested in technicalanalysis, containing a wealth of resource material.

Credibility and Recognition

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents coveringdevelopments in technical analysis in global markets.
The Journal reaches leading practitioners and students
of technical analysis throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments
impacting, either directly or indirectly, the field oftechnical analysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in theinvestment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics
tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas oftechnical analysis and those that connect with it.

Submitting Contributions

Registration and submission of contributions is online
via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor,
Aurélia Gerber, journal@ifta.org.

.GIF or .JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF
format in case it is required for printing purposes. An
Excel spreadsheet supporting your submission may also
be included.

Language

Licenses and CopyrightContributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.

We require all submissions to include the author’s
signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of
this document.

Writing Style

Papers should be written in a thesis style.
A guidance can be found at the following link:

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

Unless another license is noted, we will assume that yourcontribution is under this license.

Referencing

Editorial Timeline

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.
The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by figure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text
format, as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in

December 13 Call for papers distributed
May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerOctoberWorldwide distribution

December

Web publication

For more information, see our website
www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2015 Volume 22 Issue 4

page 24IFTA Member Societies
AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA* Financial Technical Analyst Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA* Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts site.malaysianchartist.com
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
NETHERLANDS—DCTA Dutch Commission of Technical Analysis
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
TUNISIA—ATAT* Association Tusisienne des Analystes Technique
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com

Board of Directors
President Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe, MFTA (ESTA)
Email: melsaiid@hc-si.com
Vice-President—the Americas Jeanette Schwarz-Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. (AAPTA)
Email: optnqueen@aol.com
Vice-President—Asia Pacific, Conference Director Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CFTe, FRM, CMA,
CMT (NTAA)
Email: akira.homma@ifta.org
Vice-President—Europe Thomas Hicks (STA)
Email: tom.hicks@live.co.uk
Vice-President—Middle East, Africa Mohamed Ashraf Mohfauz, MFTA, CFTe, CETA (ESTA)
Email: mohamed.ashraf.esta@gmail.com
Treasurer Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
Email: karen.roller@ifta.org
Examination Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe (VTAD)
Email: gregor.bauer@vtad.de
Education Director Saleh Nasser, CMT (ESTA)
Email: saleh.nasser@pharosholding.com
Marketing and Membership Director Dan Valcu, CFTe (AATROM)
Email: ta@educofin.com
Journal and Newsletter Director Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT)Email: aurelia.gerber@ifta.org
Development Director (Academic & Society Affairs) Carlos Jaurequizar (IEATEC)
Email: carlos.jaurequizar@noesis.es
Development Director Ron Williams, MSTA, CMT (SAMT)Email: ron.williams@samt.org.ch
Development Director (Asia-Pacific Affairs) Akihiro Niimi, MFTA (NTAA)
Email: niimia@aifaminc.com* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule
The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation ofTechnical Analysts, reaching more than 6,950 IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is anefficient and cost-effective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
March Issue

Education articles: February 15

All other content: March 1

June Issue

Education articles: May 15

All other content: June 1

September Issue

Education articles: August 15

All other content: September 1

December Issue

Education articles: November 15

All other content: December 1

Send education article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

Secretary and Sponsorship Director Sudarshan Sukhani, CFTe (ATA)
Email: sudarshansukhani@gmail.com
Acting Conference Director Alek Jankowski (ATAA)
Email: alek.jankowski@ataa.asn.au

STAFF
Executive Director Beth W. Palys, FASAE, CAE
Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Senior Graphic Designer Jon BenjaminAccounting Dawn Rosenfeld
Editor Lynne Agoston

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org