2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE

President’s Report to Colleagues

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

Save the Date, IFTA 2020 Online Conference2

Congratulations New CFTes

3

Member News

4

Industry News

Education Lounge
5Black Gold, Black Swan: Is Negative the
New Normal?

7

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and
Forecasting for Gold Since 1920

12 Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season:
Chronobiology of Financial Market
Distress
14 Equity Market Crash: What Next?
16 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
17 Congratulations 2019 John Brooks Memorial
Award Winner: Kersten Wöhrle
18 Congratulations 2019 Bronwen Wood Award
Winner: Ryan Jin Rong Toh
19 Congratulations New MFTAs
19 Welcome Interim IFTA Board Member
20 Board of Directors Nomination Form
21 Calendar-at-a-Glance
24 Board of Directors/Member Societies

Next Issue: September 2020
Submission Deadline: August 15
Education Lounge articles: Send
submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
All other content: Send submissions toadmin@ifta.org.
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to www.ifta.org.

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a notfor-profit professional organization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

Dear IFTA Colleagues,
I hope that my letter
this quarter finds you,yo u r f a m i l i e s , yo u rfriends, and your loved
ones safe and well during these exceptionally difficult times.
As part of the board’s responsibility to
IFTA and our technical analysis community, we have decided to postpone thisyear’s Annual IFTA Conference to 2021.
Instead, we will be holding an online conference on 24 October 2020 with the theme“24/24/24”; it will be 24 hours in durationand include 24 speakers from our 24 member societies. We will keep you posted on
conference updates and developments via
the IFTA website as they unfold.
I would like to take this opportunity towelcome our new interim IFTA conference director, Mr. Wieland Arlt, CFTe. Mr.
Arlt is currently Vereinigung Technischer
Analysten Deutschlands e.V. ( VTAD)

director and regional manager for the
Hamburg VTAD e.V, among other responsibilities. For a more detailed profile of Mr.
Arlt, please visit the IFTA website or see
page 19.
On behalf of IFTA, I look forward to yourattendance in the upcoming 33rd Annual
Online IFTA Conference this October!
Regarding the IFTA October board meetingand the annual AGM, we are also arranging for them to be held remotely given thecurrent circumstances.
I would also like to take this opportunity
to thank all the keynote speakers from the2019 Annual IFTA Conference, including
Mr. Robert Prechter, Mrs. Connie Brown, Mr.
Robin Griffiths, Dr. Rolf Wetzer, Mr. Elliott
Prechter, and Mr. Ron William, whose contribution to and support of the conference on
more than one aspect played a significant
role in its success.

IFTA 33rd Annual Conference

We regretfully announce the in-person
conference scheduled at the Hotel
Sofitel Philadelphia at Rittenhouse
Square for October 23–24, 2020, is
postponed until 2021.
Stay tuned as we work hard topresent you with the IFTA 2020
Online Conference details as soon as
possible.
Last, but not least, I would like to thankall member societies who have shared
updates and news from their local societies. Sharing information, knowledge, andexperience is and will always be, in spirit,
the reason why IFTA continues to exist.

Best regards,

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 2

Save the date:
The IFTA 2020 Online Conference
24/24/24: 24th of October / 24 Hours / 24 Speakers
Hosted by VTAD
More details coming soon!
The theme of the 2020 IFTA Virtual
Conference is Trading or Investing—The
Financial Markets After the Shutdown.
How to invest after the lockdown? How
will markets develop and what is the technical outlook? How and when to enter themarket with a short-, mid- and long-term
perspective.
This year’s IFTA Virtual Conference will
provide the answers to questions likethese and will cover a lot more about
investing and trading after the lockdown.
With 24 speakers from all over the world,
within a period of 24 hours, IFTA will present the best from investing, trading andtechnical analysis. Prepare yourselves formore insights, knowledge and strategies
than ever!
The conference provides a unique,once-a-year opportunity for professional
practitioners (and sponsors) to listen to
cutting-edge speakers. This year’s IFTA
Online Conference will bring together
financial professionals from across theworld, particularly from the 24 IFTA affiliated Member Societies present in 22
countries.
The level of conference presentations will
be geared to professionally employedtechnical analysts, finance sector senior
managers, fund managers, asset allocators, and financial planners, as well as
highly experienced private financial market traders/investors.

Congratulations New CFTes!
Shoma Adachi (NTAA)
Tomoaki Amano (NTAA)
Gregory Ashvin Bainathsah (TSAASF)
Rana Bhattacharjee
Muhammad Affan Bin Ahmad Nadzri (STA)
Asyraf Bin Arsad (STA)
C. Jonathan Camarda
Nga Yi Cheung
Jared Coffin
Luca Dallago (SIAT)
Ramachandran J. Dittakavi
Jacob Flumerfelt
Naoto Hasegawa (NTAA)
Michio Hashimoto (NTAA)
Yoshikazu Hikita (NTAA)
Aaron Derek Hill
Noriyuki Ichikawa (NTAA)
Asami Inoue (NTAA)
Giannos Ioannou (STA)
Hironobu Ishii (NTAA)
Shuhei Ishii (NTAA)

Hideo Kakinuma (NTAA)
Masumi Kamata (NTAA)
Takeo Kato (NTAA)
Tomoka Kawano (NTAA)
Nobuhiro Koga (NTAA)
Adam D. Koos
Ka Yee Lau
Christopher Zyn-An Li
Mukhriz Mangsor (STA)
Toshiya Matsuo (NTAA)
Muhammad Fakhruddin Mohd Fazil (STA)
Toshio Nakaki (NTAA)
Naohito Osawa (NTAA)
Andrew Ponton
Christophe Roger (AFATE)
Hiroaki Takahashi (NTAA)
Michael Tambyraja (STA)
Mitsuyo Tsuchida (NTAA)
Shuhei Uehara (NTAA)
Katsuhide Yamamoto (NTAA)
Norimasa Yonekura (NTAA)

French CFTe
IFTA has added a new language to the Certified Financial Technician program!
IFTA’s CFTe levels I and II are now offered in French! Additional languages include
English, German, Spanish, Arabic and Chinese.
For more details and to register, visit the IFTA website at https://www.ifta.org.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 3

Member News
Australian Technical Analysts Association(ATAA) (Australia)

The Society of Technical Analysts (STA)(United Kingdom)

We are pleased to announce that the Home Study
Course is now available on the ATAA website.

We hope that our IFTA colleagues and friends aroundthe world are staying well and safe during these unprecedented times.

welcome back Karen Jones, FSTA, as the new STA treasurer. Her past executive committee experience is verymuch valued.

Our monthly meetings at One Moorgate Place have been
replaced with virtual meetings that members can watch
live or at a later date. The remaining lectures for our
Diploma Part 2 course and in-house training for Kings
College London students were successfully delivered
as live webinars.

During this challenging time, we are keen to engage
with all in the TA community as much as possible—social
distancing doesn’t have to mean isolation! So keep intouch with us via our online blog and follow us on Twitter@STA_ORG or LinkedIn and like our Facebook page.

Announcing New Home Study Course

This course is for students of technical analysis who wish
to learn at their own pace. It is aimed at the IFTA Certified
Financial Technician (CFTe) internationally recognised
qualification. The qualification is achieved after passing
the IFTA CFTe Part 1 and Part 2 examinations.
The Home Study Course is a proprietary e-learning
course. Although web-based, it is fully downloadable
and may be used online or offline by PC, Mac, iPad orAndroid machines.
ATAA partnered with STA, the technical analysis organisation based in the United Kingdom who developed thecontent. The course covers the syllabi for both the Part 1
and the Part 2 examinations and offers 15 subject teaching units written by leading market technicians (shownon the ATAA website). Each unit includes exercises toself-test progress. In addition, the course offers an exam
preparation module as well as a supplement containing
advice on technical analysis report writing. The course
material consists largely of PDFs (over 500 pages) andincludes videos and some dynamic graphics.
Information on the course, content, and costs, including the introductory videos, can be seen on the ATAA
website. You can also register and pay for the course on
the ATAA website.

Students can still prepare for the future and train to
become qualified technicians during lockdown with ouronline Home Study Course. The course has been writtenby leading international market technicians to cover thesyllabi for both the STA and IFTA examinations. Online
learning puts you in control of your learning, leaving you
free to study when, where and how you choose and in
the style and the speed that is right for you. Early morning, during a work break, late at night—it is entirely up
to you, so you can fit your education around your work
and/or family commitments. For full details visit https://www.sta-uk.org/hsc/.
2020 began with a few changes to the STA board. Axel
Rudolph stepped down from the board at the December’s
AGM but will continue as director of education. Nick
Kennedy, another stalwart, resigned but will continue
with the development of our website. Leona Mondsee
and Ben Tyler resigned from their roles in the Treasury.
Joining the board are new faces Patricia Elbaz, Jeff
Boccaccio and Daniel Wynne. We are also delighted toIFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 4

Industry NewsThe Foundation for the Study of Cycles
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) is back!  
With a mission to perpetuate knowledge on how cycles can benefit humanity, the FSC has
reformed as a nonprofit organization.
Many of you are aware that the FSC was founded by the U.S. presidency under the leadership of Edward Dewey, chief economist to the government. The primary role at this time
was to see if the Great Depression of the 1930s could have been forecast and, if so, could
future events be prevented. Now, 90 years since the 1929 crash, the world is in crisis.
Cycles clearly repeat.  
Under the leadership of Dr. Richard Smith, a new board is committed to not only make theresearch archives available but also to take this knowledge to the next level.  

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Program
IFTA
IFTA Certified
Certified Financial
Financial Technician
Technician (CFTe)(CFTe) consists
consists ofof thethe CFTe
CFTe II andand CFTe
CFTe
IIII examinations.
examinations. Successful
Successful completion
completion ofof bothboth examinations
examinations culminates
culminatesinin thethe award
award ofof thethe CFTe,
CFTe, anan internationallyinternationally recognised
recognised professional
professional
qualification
qualification inin technicaltechnical analysis.
analysis.

Examinations
Examinations

The
The CFTe
CFTe II exam
exam isis multiple-choice,multiple-choice, covering
covering aa widewide range
range ofof technicaltechnical
knowledgeknowledge andand understanding
understanding ofof thethe principals
principals ofof technicaltechnical analysis;
analysis; it
it isisofferedinEnglish,French,German,Italian,
Spanish,Arabic,andoffered in English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Arabic, and Chinese;
Chinese;it’s
it’s available,
available, year-round,
year-round, at
at testing
testing centers
centers throughout
throughout thethe world,world, fromfrom
IFTA’s
IFTA’s computer-based
computer-based testing
testing provider,provider, Pearson
Pearson VUE.
VUE.
The
The CFTe
CFTe IIII exam
exam incorporates
incorporates aa numbernumber ofof questions
questions thatthat require
require essayessaybased,based, analysis
analysis responses.
responses. The
The candidate
candidate needs
needs toto demonstratedemonstrate aa depthdepth
ofof knowledge
knowledge andand experience
experience inin applying
applying various
various methods
methods ofof technicaltechnical
analysis.
analysis. The
The candidate
candidate isis provided
provided with
with current
current charts
charts covering
covering one
one
specific
specific market
market (often(often anan equity)
equity) toto bebe analysed,
analysed, as
as thoughthough forfor aa FundFundManager.
Manager.
The
The CFTe
CFTe IIII isis also
also offeredoffered inin English,
English, French,
French, German,
German, Italian,
Italian, Spanish,
Spanish,Arabic,Arabic, andand Chinese,
Chinese, typically
typically inin April
April andand October
October ofof eacheach year.
year.

Curriculum
Curriculum

The
The CFTe
CFTe IIII program
program isis designed
designed forfor self-study,
self-study, however,
however, IFTAIFTA will
will
also
also bebe happy
happy toto assist
assist inin finding
finding qualified
qualified trainers.
trainers. Local
Local societies
societies
may
may offeroffer preparatory
preparatory courses
courses toto assist
assist potential
potential candidates.
candidates.
Syllabuses,
Syllabuses, Study
Study Guides
Guides andand registration
registration areare all
all available
available onon thethe
IFTA
IFTA website
website at
at http://www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/.
http://www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/.

To
To Register
Register

PleasePlease visit
visit our
our website
website at
at http://www.ifta.org/certifications/
http://www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
registration/ forfor registration
registration details.
details.

Cost
Cost

IFTA
IFTA Member
Member Colleagues
Colleagues
CFTe
CFTe II $550
$550 USUS
CFTe
CFTe IIII $850*$850* USUS

Non-Members
Non-Members
CFTe
CFTe II $850
$850 USUS
CFTe
CFTe II
II $1,150*$1,150* US
US*Additional*Additional Fees
Fees (CFTe(CFTe II
II only):only):$100$100 US
US applies
applies forfor non-IFTA
non-IFTA proctored
proctored exam
exam locations
locations

While there is considerable focus on financial cycles, the FSC is researching recurring eventsin all areas, from weather forecasting to nature to anything that can be plotted and measured!  
FSC members receive access to a very powerful app into which data can be fed and analyzed. They also receive access to previous online issues of Cycles magazine.  
The new board consists of Jake Bernstein, Iain Mackay, Andrew Pancholi, Bill Sarubbi andLars Von Thienen.  
This June, the FSC will be hosting World Cycles Week—4 days of lectures from leading
lights within various industries. More details will shortly be available from the cycles website: www.cycles.foundation. We welcome you to join us.  
You can also enjoy our very first webinar, which was held this month. We covered the pandemic
and stock market cycles as well as demonstrating our powerful app. Visit YouTube for a replay.
We look forward to having you onboard.
Andrew Pancholi
Board Member, FSC

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Program
IFTA’s
IFTA’s Master
Master ofof Financial
Financial TechnicalTechnical Analysis
Analysis (MFTA)(MFTA) represents
represents thethehighesthighest professional
professional achievement
achievement inin thethe technicaltechnical analysis
analysis community,community,
worldwide.
worldwide. Achieving
Achieving this
this level
level ofof certification
certification requires
requires you
you toto submit
submitanan original
original body
body ofof researchresearch inin thethe discipline
discipline ofof international
international technicaltechnical
analysis,analysis, which
which should
should be
be ofof practicalpractical application.
application.

Examinations
Examinations

In
In orderorder toto complete
complete thethe MFTA
MFTA andand receive
receive your
your Diploma,
Diploma, you
you must
must
write
write aa researchresearch paper
paper ofof nono lessless than
than three
three thousand,thousand, andand nono moremore than
than
five
five thousand,thousand, words.
words. Charts,
Charts, Figures
Figures andand Tables
Tables may
may bebe presented
presented ininaddition.
addition.

Your
Your paper
paper must
must meet
meet thethe following
following criteria:
criteria:•• It
It mustmust bebe original
original•• It
It mustmust develop
develop aa reasoned
reasoned andand logicallogical argument
argument andand leadlead toto aa soundsoundconclusion,conclusion, supported
supported byby thethe tests,
tests, studies
studies andand analysis
analysis contained
contained in
in
the
paper
the paper•• TheThe subject
subject mattermatter should
should be
be ofof practicalpractical application
application•• It
It should
should add
add toto thethe body
body ofof knowledge
knowledge inin thethe discipline
discipline ofof international
international
technical
technical analysis
analysis

Timelines
Timelines && Schedules
Schedules

There
There areare two
two MFTA
MFTA sessions
sessions per
per year,
year, with
with thethefollowing
following deadlines:
deadlines:
SessionSession 1
1“Alternative“Alternative Path”
Path” application
application deadline
deadline
Application,
Application, outline
outline andand fees
fees deadline
deadline
Paper
Paper submission
submission deadline
deadline

SessionSession 2
2“Alternative“Alternative Path”
Path” application
application deadline
deadline
Application,
Application, outline
outline andand fees
fees deadline
deadline
Paper
Paper submission
submission deadline
deadline

To Register

February
February 28
28
May
May 2
2
October
October 15
15
July
July 3131
October
October 22

March
March 1515 (of(of thethefollowing
following year)
year)

PleasePlease visit
visit our
our website
website at
at http://www.ifta.org/certifications/
http://www.ifta.org/certifications/master-of-financial-technical-analysis-mfta-program/
master-of-financial-technical-analysis-mfta-program/forfor further
further details
details andand toto register.
register.

Cost

$950
$950 USUS (IFTA(IFTA Member
Member Colleagues);
Colleagues);$1,200$1,200 US
US (Non-Members)(Non-Members)

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education LoungeBlack Gold, Black Swan: Is Negative the New Normal?
By Ron William, CFTe (Twitter @RonWilliamRWA) | IGTV Interview
Black gold’s black swan price spike into
negative territory has potentially triggered
a “New Normal” regime over the next 3–6
months, with a significantly lower equilibrium level around the US$10 handle. Itmarks yet another shockwave from theglobal pandemic VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) environment, coupled with legacy oil supply
imbalances that continue to weigh.

previously exhibited a historical meanof $50, tracking volatile price swings of+/- 1 standard deviation. These statisticalbands now project a new range between$10 and sub-zero depths of -$30. Whilenegative pressure remains, the latest
spike low at -$40.32 is likely to holdstrong for the foreseeable future, with asmall but probable risk of a W-shape bottom retest.

Trend regression bands spanning from the2008 super cycle peak level of $147.27

In the meantime, the upside strategic levelof $10 remains important, serving as thehistoric 1998 low, part of a wave IV structure of a prior impulsive cycle pattern.
Further long-term resistance can also befound at $20 and $30 based on statisticalprobability distribution measures.
Over the short-term horizon, Oil’s V-shaperecovery is still pressured by a silent
contagion contango, with futures contract deliveries across the next 4 months(June–September), favouring sub $10,
with a risk back under the zero mark, into
negative territory. Immediate overhead

technical price resistance holds strong at
both $25 and $29.50 (61.8% golden ratio
and Dow theory structural level). Only asustained confirmation above the latter
point would neutralise Oil’s downside vulnerability and signal a higher resumption.
One of the popular methods for participating in the Wild West of the crude oilmarket is via futures-based synthetic
products. ETFs and ETNs make speculative access to the derivatives markets conveniently accessible for retail investors.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education LoungeBlack Gold, Black Swan: Is Negative the New Normal? continued

Ron William, CFTe, is a market
strategist with over 20 yearsof experience working forleading economic researchand institutional firms,
producing macro researchand trading strategies. He specializes inblended, top-down, semidiscretionary
analysis, driven by cycles and proprietarytiming models. Ron is also a behaviouralfinance expert, trading psychologist, andperformance coach. He uses the latest
techniques in behavioural/risk assessment
modelling, peak-performance, neuro/bodyscience, and stress response management,
including mindfulness and coherence
training.
However, the latest demand spike in
Oil’s exchange-traded products warrants
extreme caution, following the unprecedented wave of speculative “hot money”
attempting to catch the proverbial fallingknife. Figure 3 highlights a composite
basket of 24 crude oil funds and UnitedStates Oil (USO) fund breaking multiyear
ceilings, with the latter ETP giving rise to137% of new Robinhood trading accounts,
between February and the end of April,fuelled by a staggering $1.6 billion in
inflows in just one week!
The latest data shows that retail traders
have dumped 30% of their pain trade injust a few days. This happened as theprice of USO rose from just under $17

post-split to its peak of over $19 andproves again how dangerous both themarkets and investor behaviour can be.
Not unlike the XIV debacle of early 2018,
could this portend the implosion of derivatives-based oil ETFs? Perhaps muchworse, a perfect storm is likely brewing
ahead, once oil producers take the otherside of futures bought by USO and other
ETPs. What happens when a historically
unprecedented percentage of shorts
stand for physical delivery? Even with afinancial bailout, risks will likely remain
for the industry with a technical likelihoodthat Oil is in a New Normal regime. This
currently signals a return to negative territory and a potential W-shape bottom.

Ron's primary work, as part of his current
institutional market advisory firm (RWA),
gained global industry recognition, withmultiple finalist awards for "Best Specialist
Research/& FX". His market insights arealso featured regularly across leading
financial media programs, notably, Volatility
Re-awakening and Tech Sector, and industry
publications, including Equity Market Crash:
What Next?, Bitcoin-Digital Asset Paradigm,
and Bond Yield Spike Risk.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron
serves on the board of the International
Federation of Technical Analysis (IFTA),
heads the Swiss Association of Market
Technician (SAMT) Geneva Chapter, andconsults with multiple education andregulatory groups.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and Forecasting forGold Since 1920
By El-Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe

Forecast targets, don’t forecast shapes

If you want to be a good technical analyst, you should respect the market. Let themarket lead you and wait until it pulls the last leg away, especially if you analyze themarket by Elliott wave.Also, you have to be more flexible with waves until they unfold,especially corrective waves.
Figure 1 shows data for gold from 1920to December 20, 2019; actually, this was an old
chart to teach our students how we can begin counting from the beginning. At the left
side of the chart, we count a clear three waves on cycle degree; the third one has ended
at the $1,920 level in September 2011.

Since September 2011, the corrective wave has been running as the fourth wave. Note:
The market guided to determine the kind of fourth wave and the subsequent wave.
When wave [A] of the fourth wave had appeared as an impulse wave, we knew thatthe fourth wave is a zigzag wave, which means that the correction hasn't finished yet.
We also knew that wave [B] of the fourth wave most likely will retrace near 38.20% to61.80%of wave [A], and it most likely to 61.80%. See the mentioned targets on the chart,
which have been published for two years, and note how the prices stopped at the firsttarget for three years from July 2016 to June 2019 as a 38.20%.When the prices had
exceeded that level, it reached the next target so fast, only it needed six months toreach to the $1,611 level as 61.80%, which is a little higher than the $1,586 level—thementioned target in the chart.
Let's take a closer look at wave [A].

Figure 2: Wave 1 as a leading diagonal

Figure 1: Gold, weekly chart from 1920 up to 7/12/2019.

Figure 2 shows the first wave of corrective wave after a rally to the $1,920 level. The firstwave has appeared as a truncated leading diagonal shaped as a channel; this type of formation leads us to many things. First, the correction hasn't finished yet. Second, with breakout
for nearest resistance, a rebound takes place targeting around 61.8% of wave (1) as wave (2).

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and Forecasting for GoldSince 1920 continued

As we know, the length of the third wave of an impulse wave is always more than 100%
the length of first wave or fifth wave. It would never be the shortest one of the three; itis almost taller than the first one and the fifth one. The normal target of the third wave
is 161.8% of the length of the first wave.

Figure 3: End of wave (2) as a zigzag

Figure 3 shows how the prices reach wave (2)'s target and then turn back to tell usthat it has finished. And with a lower high and a breach for the nearest support, we aresure that wave (3) took place. Let’s consider the target for wave (3)."Look at Figure 4".

Figure 5: Wave (3) met its normal target

As shown in Figure 5, the prices had reached to the normal target of wave (3) nearest to
161.8% the length of wave (1), and then a bigger rebound than before appeared, whichmeans that most probably; wave (4) is taking place. Let's forecast its target.

Figure 4: Getting a target for wave (3)Figure 6: Getting a target for wave (4)IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and Forecasting for GoldSince 1920 continued

According to the guideline of alternation, when a second wave unfolds as a sharp
wave, the fourth wave most likely unfolds as a sideways wave. So, we expect onlyaround 38.20% retracement of wave (3) as a target for wave (4) as shown in Figure 6.
Let's take a look.

There is guideline says that when wave three achieves its target relative to wave one
and appears as a taller one, most likely, the length of wave five equals the length ofwave one or relates it with Fibonacci ratio. As mentioned in Figure 8, we put the lengthof wave (1) at the end of wave (4).Let’s see where wave (5), and subsequently [A], willfind their final destination.

Figure 7: Wave (4) met its target

As expected, wave (4) retraced only 38.20% of wave (3) and unfolded as a symmetrical triangle as shown in figure 7. Such formation says that the impulse wave is about
to finish and remain only a one wave, wave (5). Let's forecast its target. See Figure 8.

Figure 8: Getting a target for wave (5)Figure 9: Wave (5) met its target

As shown in Figure 9, wave (5) has unfolded as an ending diagonal with length around
78.6% of wave (1)'s length, and with a breakout for the upper boundary or ending diagonal, we could say that wave [A] of the fourth zigzag wave has completed on primary
degree, and the bigger wave [B] took place targeting mentioned price's areas in Figure
1. Now let's take a closer look at the details of wave [B] of [A][B][C] fourth zigzag wave.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and Forecasting for GoldSince 1920 continued

Figure 11 was published for our students before one year to forecast the target ofthe last part of the ascending triangle at prices around $1,366, at which prices haveexceeded in June 2019 with significant breakout, as shown in Figure 12.

Figure 10: Start of ascending wave [B] of [A] [B] [C] zigzag

As shown in Figure 10, wave (A) of [B] unfolded as a corrective wave, which means thatwave [B] will appear as a flat wave "3,3,5" or triangle wave "3,3,3,3,3." It couldn't be a
zigzag wave “5, 3, 5."

Figure 12: Wave [B] is reshaping itself

With such significant breakout for the upper boundary of the ascending triangle, wehave to amend the count to be compatible with price action as shown in Figure 13.

Figure 13: the final shape of wave [B] and forecasting wave [c]Figure 11: The first shape of wave [B]IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Elliott Wave Workshop—Counting and Forecasting for GoldSince 1920 continued

Due to a price rally, wave [B] has converted to an uncommon type of flat wave calledan "inverted flat."Ralph Nelson Elliott talked about it in his last book, Nature's Low, in1946 two years before his death. Robert Prechter has republished information on the
inverted flat in his book The Major Works of R. N. Elliott, on page 182. But strangely
enough, he didn't mention it in his famous book Elliott Wave Principle; see the yellow
box in the screen shot of that page.

Long-term forecasting

When we look at Figure 13, we clearly find (at 1,2,3,4,5) that an impulse wave has begun
on 16/8/2018, and we believe that it is close to finding its final destination, whereas theachieved highest high at the $1,611 level lied in the target area for the ending of wave
[B] of the fourth wave [A] [B] [C], zigzagging from two ways. First, it is within the pricearea of 61% Fibonacci retracement of wave [A], which began at $1,920 and ended at$1,045. Second, it is within the price area of the target of wave 5 of (C) of [B]. Thereis a guideline that says, "Within impulse, when wave 3 is the tallest one, waves 1 and5 tend to have gains related by equality of the Fibonacci ratio." And according to that
relationship, the target of wave 5 of (C) of [B] lied in the area at $1,635.
Also, one of the fifth wave signs is the divergence with momentum indicators. It is easy
to notice a very clear negative divergence with the RSI indicator, which reached an
extreme overbought level—that level reached by the indicator before in 2011, when gold
reached its highest price at $1,920 and then fell to $1045. There is a potential negative
divergence with the MACD indicator too.
Such divergences are a sign of weakness, indicating that the ascending wave [B] isending. So, when will we know that wave [B] has ended? We will know when we see aclassical reversal pattern that has been completed at least on the daily chart.
With the end of the [B] wave, the [C] wave will start heading down to a target lower than
the starting point of the B wave at $1,045.
El-Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe, is a member of IFTA’s Education Committee, an Elliott
wave lecturer at the Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts, and founder of theEgyptian Academy for Elliott Wave.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season:
Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress
By Roy Barzilai

Introduction

In this article, I wish to explain the interrelated nature ofseasonal patterns of climate and weather, chronobiological cycles (how solar activity effects human behavior) in
respect to economic activity, and financial market cycles,in view of recent winter trends of a pandemic, leading
to a great recession and even depression in social andeconomic life.
Chronobiology is the science that studies how our natural
hormonal cycles are synchronized in response to changes
in solar activity, such as the circadian rhythm of day-night,
or even seasonal patterns of sunshine during summer
versus cold winter conditions.
In financial markets, bear markets is a term coined todescribe periods of significant economic decline causedby distress in financial conditions, similar to the bear innature going into winter hibernation. Bull markets, on theother hand, depict the nature of a raging bull, filled withtestosterone and jumping higher with energy. The natureof animal spirits driving financial markets actually originates in our hormones, providing an impetus for social
mood trends and the seasonal nature of financial cycles
through human history

History of bear markets

The current bear market of 2020 occurred as a result of
the Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic engulfing theglobe during winter flu season, starting in December 2019
in China. The pandemic has caused global lockdowns of
economic activity, leading to mass unemployment andDepression-like conditions. The financial panic culminated in March 2020, as the Federal Reserve announced
unlimited monetary easing, and even the unprecedented
step of buying high-yield corporate bonds (junk bonds)
in order to “save the economy” from collapse due to thealmost complete shutdown of economic activity.
This follows the last Great Recession of 2009, also occurring with a financial collapse in October 2008, leading theFederal Reserve to initiate a quantitative easing programof money printing that led to a recovery after the stock
market bottomed in March 2009 during the end of thewinter season. This also coincided with the H1N1 (Swine
Flu) epidemic of 2009.
If we look further back in history, the Great Depressionof 1929 also began with the crash of October 29, andsimilarly, the great crash of October 1987 occurred during
autumn, leading the cold winter season.

Origins of seasonal patterns inchronobiology

This historically well-known pattern of great bear markets, starting with a financial crash around the monthof October, the autumn transition season between the
sunny summer months and the cold winter, is rooted in

our hormonal cycles transitioning from raging bull mode
during the summer season into hibernating bear during
winter.
After winter usually comes the rally in springtime, as the
sun begins to shine again in the northern hemisphere during March and April. The bear market of 2009 bottomed
out in March, and the current financial panic of 2020 has
also diminished since March as stock markets are recovering into May. After the crash of October 1929, stock
markets also bounced back for five months, until April.
On Wall Street, there is also a well-known adage, “Sellin May and go away,” which has been time tested asdemonstrating surprisingly highly significant results. If
we examine this saying from a chronobiological perspective it makes absolute sense, as the spring period shows
the greatest rise of solar activity after low UV radiation
during winter.

Long-term solar cycles and financial trends

Kondratiev waves is a theory introduced by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in 1925, suggesting a hypothesized cycle-like phenomenon in the modern world
economy ranging in waves of about 60 years. Kondratiev
identified three phases in the cycle, namely expansion,
stagnation, and recession, which are based on seasonalpatterns. These waves are also associated with changes
in social mood:

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress continued

The first stage of expansion and growth, the “Spring” stage, encompasses asocial shift in which the wealth, accumulation, and innovation that are present create upheavals and displacements in society. The economic changes
result in redefining work and the role of participants in society. In the next
phase, the “Summer” stagflation, there is a mood of affluence from the previous growth stage that change the attitude towards work in society, creating
inefficiencies. After this stage comes the season of deflationary growth, or
the plateau period. The popular mood changes during this period as well. It
shifts toward stability, normalcy, and isolationism after the policies and economics during unpopular excesses of war. Finally, the “Winter” stage, thatof severe depression, includes the integration of previous social shifts andchanges into the social fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and technology.1
The theory of chronobiology, which I develop in my two books, The Testosterone
Hypothesis: How Hormones Regulate the Life Cycles of Civilization, and Sex Wars,2
provides the framework for understanding how Kondratiev waves are driven by solar
and hormonal seasonal cycles.
If we observe the chart of sunspots since the 1950s, we can see that solar activity is
on a declining trend for the last 70 years, leading to the Great Recession of 2009 and2020, both right at the bottom of the 11-year solar cycle:3

Conclusion

As it seems probable that solar activity is declining into a grand solar minimum overthe next few decades, similar to the Dalton minimum in the early 19th century that led
to the Napoleonic Wars, we may be at the cusp of long period of winter-like conditions.
Furthermore, because winter flu conditions are also a product of low solar radiation
during the winter period, when more clouds block UV radiation that is known to kill
germs during the summertime, we may face more infectious diseases that cause muchdisruption to economics activity.
Hence, understanding the interconnected nature of solar cycles, climate, and humanchronobiology may provide us with a guide for better adapting to our natural, social,and economic environment in the future.

References“Kondratieff Wave,” CMT Association, last modified April 20, 2020, https://cmtassociation.org/kb/
kondratieff-wave/.
Roy is the author of these books and articles:*Sex Wars: How Hormones Drive Gender, Race, & Culture Conflicts (2018)*The Testosterone Hypothesis: How Hormones Regulate the Life Cycles of Civilization (2015). Website:
https://testosteronecivilization.com/.
*Barzilai, R. (2019). Solar cycles, light, sex hormones and the life cycles of civilization: Toward integrated
chronobiology. Science & Philosophy, 7(2). doi: 10.23756/sp.v7i2.483
3“Sunspot chart,” Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO), http://www.sidc.be/silso/
monthlyhemisphericplot.
1

2

Roy Barzilai is an independent scholar who studied both Ayn Rand’s philosophy ofobjectivism and Rivka Schechter’s philosophy of language, rooted in the Hebrew
Bible. The synthesis of Rand’s Aristotelian philosophy and the biblical creed of ethical monotheism provides profound insights into the ideas that shaped the Westernmind. By exploring the intellectual history of Western civilization, Roy seeks to reacha greater understanding of the human mind.
As a financial analyst for more than a decade, Roy became aware of the herd mentality infinancial markets. He studied the Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the new scienceof Socionomics, focusing on how change in social mood affects society, its ideas, philosophy,
culture, and economy. This dynamism is the engine of history.
Roy holds undergraduate degrees in law, accounting, and computer science from Tel Aviv
University.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Equity Market Crash: What Next?
By Ron William, CFTe (Twitter @RonWilliamRWA)
The latest VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) environment teaches
us the virtues of being “calm in the eye of the storm” while also wary of "catching the falling knife" after a 30% crash. What next? See this media interview link for the full report.

S&P 500 post-crash rebound fails into Q2 cycle window

An interim market bottom is taking shape into our Q2 cycle window but will likely offer
false hope, as an important reassessment of financial views and investment positions
continues. Like the Olympic skiers poised at the start of the downhill, investors sensethat the dangers are great, but if the turns can be successfully negotiated, the rewards
will be worth the risks.

late session relief-rallies, amplified by the crescendo of mega hedge funds, passive
strategies and ETF vehicles, all unwinding old regime market strategies.
S&P 500 key price retracement levels are 2645 (33%), 2805/35 (50%/value level), into
the 3000 psychological ceiling, near confluence 3010/85 (66%/value level). Downsiderisk is naturally based on any further new low breakouts, within a tight margin from 2347
and 2281 (2018 low and 2020 crash low). A sustained weekly close beneath here will
still pose another -30% risk ahead.

-30% risk still ahead

The big picture chart above highlights a major bull-trap exhaustion signal recently
testing key 30-year trend mean, near the double top breakout level at 2380. The latest short-term oversold rebound will likely continue into our Q2 cycle window before
resuming lower this year.

Figure 1: S&P 500 daily chart, time factor and momentum indicators. Source: RW Market Advisory, Optuma.

Our tactical model flashed a sell signal in early February, only acquiring a modest
profit due to the unprecedented volatility that followed, with the VIX spiking to 2008
GFC levels. A series of forced liquidation chart patterns also triggered post-intraday

Figure 2: S&P 500 30-year trend average. Source: RW Market Advisory, Optuma

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Equity Market Crash: What Next? continued

Education Lounge

Confirmation below 2380 would unlock further downside scope into the next psychological level at 2000, also a triple confluence price range (50% retrace, -1STD andvalue zone). Long-term targets remain back at the old bubble peaks of GFC 2008 and
TMT Y2K, near 1600, equating to yet another 30% drop and total fall of 60%, marginally overshooting traditional bear market drawdowns.

Bear market roadmap: 3-stage process, not event

Market pundits continue to benchmark the latest coronavirus trigger against priorexogenous shocks, such as either SARS or the 9/11 attack. Aside from the intrinsic
differences, we should remember that both events were at the bottom of the market
cycle, which later gave birth to 2003–2007 bull cycle. The context now is very different,at the top of a record-breaking bull-market in both price magnitude and time duration.
The global pandemic is clearly a major shock, but in the end, it will be remembered
as the pin that burst the mother of all bubbles.

The final chart below offers a range of good, bad and ugly scenarios. Presently, thelatest market crash is in line with the 1987 crash in terms of the short-lived technicalpattern, losing 30–40% in only four weeks, with the potential for a V-shape recovery.
However, our historical models are in strong disagreement with this optimistic view,alternatively favouring a bad, or ugly scenario, exhibiting a blend of either a U or
L-shaped pattern (Figs 3–6).

Historical analogies offer a useful probabilistic guide of the bear roadmap ahead, demonstrating a 3-stage process, not an event. The traditional shape is a fall, rally, thenrest of fall. Nevertheless, each bear market exhibits a unique character, with a range ofprice and time patterns. True to the adage, “history does not repeat” but “it does rhyme”.

LT cycles signal asymmetric risk into 2020–2023

Long-term cycles signal further asymmetric risk ahead between 2020 and 2023, into
a 90-year trend regression channel (-1 STD). Prior generational cycles have marked key
shifts in bull and bear regimes, fuelled by expansion and contractions in valuations.
The new regime triggers a shift away from passive buy and hold strategies onto active
market timing and astute risk management.

Figure 4: DJI Bear market parallels. Source: RW Market Advisory, Optuma.

Figure 3: DJI historical chart. Source: RW Market Advisory, Optuma.

In either case, the average bear market signature leads to a 50% price drop, with atime duration ranging from 1.5 to 3 years or so. The ugly exceptions are the 1974 shockand 1929 Crash (figs 5 & 6), with the latter roadmap providing an eerily close historicalparallel. The 2020 crash has already outperformed the early stage of the 1929 crashin terms of the speed of the fall. What followed was a rebound of 51%, before theIFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

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Equity Market Crash: What Next? continued

completion of the waterfall decline of 86%, punctured by multiple bear-market rallies,
which ultimately invigorated the race to the real low.
Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience
working for leading economic research and institutional firms, producing
macro research and trading strategies. He specializes in blended, topdown, semidiscretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing
models. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist,
and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science, and stress responsemanagement, including mindfulness and coherence training.
Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), gained
global industry recognition, with multiple finalist awards for "Best Specialist Research/&
FX". His market insights are also featured regularly across leading financial media
programs, notably, Volatility Re-awakening and Tech Sector, and industry publications,
including Equity Market Crash: What Next?, Bitcoin-Digital Asset Paradigm, and Bond
Yield Spike Risk.
Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves on the board of the International Federationof Technical Analysis (IFTA), heads the Swiss Association of Market Technician (SAMT)
Geneva Chapter, and consults with multiple education and regulatory groups.

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II

Exam 2

Exam 1

Exam dates

22 Oct 2021

TBA Apr 2021

Registration deadline

4 Sept 2021

TBA Mar 2021

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

Session 2

Session 1

31 Jul 2020

28 Feb 2021

Application/Outline Deadline

2 Oct 2020

2 May 2021

Paper Deadline

15 Mar 2021

15 Oct 2021

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 172019 John Brooks Memorial Award WinnerThis paper is presented for the best Master of Financial Technician (MFTA) research paper written each year.

Kersten Wöhrle, MFTA
MFTA Research Paper Title:
27.02 Day Cycle Model

Kirchheim, Germany
kerstenwoehrle@icloud.com
Member of Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Deutschlands
e.V. (VTAD-Germany)
Kersten Wöhrle started his career with an apprenticeship as aprecision mechanic. For further career development, he focusedon the growth market of medical technology and laboratory diagnostics. He studied medical technology at the MTAE in Esslingenand earned the electronics certificates II, III, IV C, and IV D in his
free time while working in Munich. Over the next 30 years, heworked for two leading employers in the research and development of medical systems
and laboratory diagnostic systems. In the last 10 years prior to his retirement in 2017,
he worked as a product manager for coagulation systems for professional laboratory
diagnostics.
For 25 years, he has been intensively involved with financial market analysis in his freetime, with a particular interest in the analysis of natural cyclical patterns that reveal a
synchronicity with the financial markets. The biggest discovery so far is the 27.02 Day
Cycle. In his MFTA paper, Kersten describes the mathematical relationship of the 27.02
Day Cycle with the solar rotation period, the anomalistic period of the earth, Pi, and thecosmic number 137. Kersten uses the example of the S&P 500 to demonstrate how the
emergence of emancipated cycles can be detected and calculated with the 27.02 Day
Cycle as carrier frequency and natural time base.
Since 2015, Kersten has been member of the VTAD in Frankfurt. He has since presented
the 27.02 Day Cycle Model at several regional conferences. Due to great interest, thecurrent status is published on the VTAD home page with every 27.02 Day Cycle completion. This makes the 27.02 Day Cycle Model forecast transparent to all interested parties
and comparable to the actual development.

In Memory of John Brooks

Past winners of the award:

John Brooks was a highly respected technicalsecurities analyst who worked at a number ofprominent Wall Street firms, including Edwards& Hanley, Robinson Humphrey, and Lowry
Research, where he served as senior vice president and senior analyst.

2018 Dr. Oliver Reiss, CFTe, MFTA
(Germany)

During his long and distinguished career, John
was the co-founder and past-president of theMarket Technicians Association (MTA) and was
one of the first recipients of the Chartered Market
Technician (CMT) designation in the UnitedStates. In 1985, he co-founded the International
Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) andserved as chairman from 1996 to 1998. As thelong-time chairman of the Market Technicians
Association Educational Foundation, John was
instrumental in establishing accredited collegelevel courses in technical securities analysis inmany universities.
John was also a co-founder of the American
Association of Professional Technical Analysts(AAPTA) and served on its board of directors. John authored the highly regarded book
Mastering Technical Analysis, published by
McGraw-Hill in 2005. His many awards include
the prestigious Market Technicians Association
Award for Outstanding Contribution to theField of Technical Analysts and the Technical
Securi t ies Anal y s t s A s so cia t ion of San
Francisco’s Lifetime Award for Outstanding
Achievement in Technical Analysis. In recognition of his support of technical securities analysis throughout the world, John was also nameda Fellow of the British Society of TechnicalAnalysts (STA).

2017 Alexander Spreer, MFTA, CIIA,
CEFA, CFTe (Germany)
2016 Tomoya Suzuki, Ph.D., MFTA
(Japan)2015 Miyoko Nishimura, CMTA, CFTe,
MFTA (Japan)
2014 Adam Cox, MFTA (New Zealand)
2013 Alex Neale, MFTA (United
Kingdom)2012 Yoshinobu Sakai, CFTe, MFTA
(Japan)2011 Stephan A. Belser, CFTe, MFTA
(Germany)
2010 Mohamed Elaasar, MFTA (Egypt)2009 Pavlos Theodoulos Ioannou,
MFTA, CFTe (Cyprus)
2008 Francesco Caruso, MFTA
(Switzerland)

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 182019 Bronwen Wood Award WinnerThis award is presented to the candidate who had the best Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) paper for the year.

Ryan Jin Rong Toh, CFTe
Singaporeryantoh@hotmail.sg
Ryan Jin Rong Toh, CFTe, has a background in nutrition and fitness and stumbled upon the topic of technical analysis and trading while browsing in the library. His curiosity of an interestingsounding name has now grown into his passion.
He has been studying the markets since 2013 and actively trading since 2016. His interest is in broadening the existing field ofknowledge in technical analysis while combining existing methods
with new indicators.
A firm believer in learning, he is always looking for new perspectives on things, learningfrom other fellow technicians and of course the market.

In Memory of Bronwen Wood

Past winners of the award:

Bronwen Wood was one of the founding board
members of IFTA’s Society of Technical Analysts(STA). She was instrumental in developing both
the CFTe Diploma Examination and the preparatory courses for the examination. She wrote andgraded all papers in the early years. Ms. Wood
was a great technical analyst, rated one of thebest by her peers, particularly for her work on
the equity indices and individual shares. For
both her contribution to education and heroutstanding analytical skills, she was made afellow of the STA in 1993. Ms. Wood was also
a long-standing member of the IFTA board invarious capacities. Through this connection,
she was respected worldwide as an outstanding
technical analyst and an expert in the teachingof technical analysis.

2018 Klaus Horn, CFTe (Germany)
2017 No award given
2016 Ruslan Mikhailov, CFTe (Russia)
2015 Lorenz Ulrich Weidinger, CFTe
(Germany)
2014 Jörg Rühlicke, CFTe (Germany)2013 Sebastien Duhamed, CFTe
(France)2012 Jean-Francois Owczarczak,
CFTe (Switzerland)
2011 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
(Indonesia)
2010 Manasi Kumbhat, CFTe (UAE)2009 Hisham Abdullah A. AlQuohi,
CFTe (Saudi Arabia)
2008 Tamar Gamal Eldin Hassan,
CFTe (Egypt)

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 19

Congratulations New MFTAs
Ron Acoba, CMT, CFTe, MFTA

MFTA Research Paper Title: Emerging
Currencies as Equity Earthquake
Ron Acoba is the chief
investment strategist andco-founder of Trading
Edge Consultancy, athird-party research provider for banks and broke r a g e f i r m s i n t h ePhilippines. He is a holderof the Chartered Market Technician (CMT)
as well as the Certified Financial Technician(CFTe) designations. Recently, he has also
received his Master of Financial TechnicalAnalysis (MFTA) designation from IFTA. He
is the only one ever in the Philippines to be
granted an MFTA. Ron has more than 15
years of experience in the investment
industry. He used to be an equity dealer
and forex trader for Credit Suisse
Philippines. He also used to be an equity
fund manager and chief equity dealer for
BPI Asset Management and Trust Group,
where he personally managed US$500
million in discretionary funds. Earlier in his
career, he worked as a forex analyst andtrader for BabyPips.com, LLC.
Ron received his undergraduate degreein economics from the Ateneo de Manila
University. He also holds an MBA degreefrom the University of the Philippines. Roncan be reached at www.tradingedgeconsultancy.com.

Momen El Shayal, MFTA, CFTe

MFTA Research Paper Title:
Determination of Time Target Zones forPrice Targets of Classic Price Patterns
Momen El Shayal is thehead of the technicalanalysis department at
SIGMA Securities
Brokerage. He has
almost 10 years of experience in the capital markets. He earned a B.Sc.
in commerce in 2008 and acquired his
CFTe in 2013. Momen is a member of theEgyptian Society of Technical Analysts(ESTA). He started his career in Jazira
Capital as a senior technical analyst in2011 and was promoted to a chief technical analyst in 2013, serving both asset
management and brokerage divisions. In
2016, he joined the SIGMA Securities
Brokerage team, where he is responsible
for technical analysis products for individual and institutional clients covering
the MENA and U.S. markets.

Welcome Interim IFTA Board
Member (Term April 2020 – October 2020)
Wieland Arlt, CFTe

IFTA Conference Director, VTAD (Germany)
Wieland Arlt is a trader, trading coach, and trainer. He is the author of
the bestselling books Risk and Money Management – Simplified(German), Risk and Money Management for Day and Swing Trading(English), and 55 Reasons to Become a Trader (German), as well as
numerous articles in leading financial magazines. He is a sought-after
speaker and expert at trader fairs. As a trader, coach, and trainer, heconveys trading approaches that are easy to understand andimplement.
Wieland is a board member of the Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Deutschlands
e.V. and is in charge of the chapter in Hamburg. He holds a degree in economics.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 20IFTA Board of Directors Nomination FormIFTA is an international organization established to advance the interests of the global
community of technical analysis societies. IFTA is managed by a board of directors, which
is elected by the member societies at the Annual General Meeting, normally conducted at
the time of IFTA’s Annual Conference. In selecting a slate of candidates for the IFTA boardof directors, IFTA seeks to have the management resources, global representation, diversity,
expertise and experience needed to advance its mission.
IFTA is now requesting nominations from individuals to serve on the board of directors for
the October 2020–October 2023 term. IFTA estimates that three board vacancies will
be filled at the 2020 Virtual Annual General Meeting. Nominees must be willing to serve
as a member or chair of a key IFTA committee and/or assist the committees and the board
in ongoing work as needed.
Board members serve without payment for their work on the IFTA board of directors. Service
on the IFTA board demands a high level of responsibility and a serious commitment tosupport IFTA’s mission; it also provides personal and professional rewards to its members.
Nominations from all interested persons are welcome. The deadline to submit nominations
is August 23, 2020.
The nomination procedure is simple:

Nomination Form: IFTA Board of Directors
Name of Nominee
Firm
Address
City

State

Postal Code

Phone

Fax

Email

Country

Member in Good Standing of (Name of IFTA Member Society):
Nominated by

1 Any member in good standing of an IFTA member society may be nominated or may
nominate him/herself.

Persons seconding this nomination (must be members in good standing of an IFTA member society). Twoseconders required.

2 Nominations must be seconded by two members in good standing of an IFTA member
society.

1)
Name 		

Society2)
Name 		

Society

3 The nominee must have the support of the board of directors of a local member society,preferably his or or her own Society.
4 Each nominee must submit the following to IFTA Headquarters no later than August 23,
2020.
a Completed Nomination Formb Completed IFTA Member Society Endorsementc Summary or Curriculum Vitae (CV)5 All nomination materials should be sent by email or postal mail to:
International Federation of Technical Analysts
Phone: (240) 404-6508
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Fax:(301) 990-9771
Rockville, Maryland 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org
Nominations will be announced to the membership in early September. Voting will takeplace at the IFTA Annual General Meeting on or around October 23, 2020. If you havequestions concerning this matter or would like a nominating form, please contact IFTA
Admin at admin@ifta.org.

Nominee must have the support of the board of his/her IFTA member society. A completed IFTA Member
Society Endorsement (below) must accompany this Nomination Form. A summary of the nominee’s professional credentials and background must accompany this application.
Nominations deadline: August 23, 2020.
IFTA Member Society Endorsement

Name of Nominee		Name of IFTA Member Society

and has the support of the society’s board of directors to run for a position on the IFTA board of directors.

Signature of Society Officer 		

Date

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 21

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

Topic

STANZ
(New
Zealand)

VariesVaries, or online

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz

Monthly Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are

ATAA(Australia)

VariesVaries, or online

Varieswww.ataa.asn.au

Monthly Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA

CSTA
Chapters(Canada)VariesVaries, or online

Varieswww.csta.org

Monthly Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the

STA

VariesOnline or One Moorgate Place,
Chartered Accountants Hall,
1 Moorgate Place, London

Varieshttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors arewelcome, first visit free.

and plan social and educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry
professionals and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also playa vital role in their communities by connecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
second Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

2020
Jul

6

STA Diploma Exam, Part 1

STA

NA

StayAhead Training Centre, London

10.00amhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/
examinations/

7Monthly Meeting

STA

To be confirmed

Virtual Meeting

6.30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

9

STA Diploma, Part 2

NA

London School of Economics

1.00pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/
examinations/

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Aug

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-September
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Sept

8

Monthly Meeting

STA

To be confirmed

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London EC2R 6EA

6.30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

Oct2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

13

Monthly Meeting

STA

Charles Morris, Atlantic House
Fund Management

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London EC2R 6EA

6.30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Session 1 paper deadline IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

22

IFTA Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II examination

NA

Varies in lcoations worldwideNAadmin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/
certifications

IFTA

Continued on page 22

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

page 22

Calendar continued
(Oct)

Nov

Dec

22

STA Diploma, Part 2

STA

NA

To be confirmed

1.00pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/
examinations/

TBA

IFTA Virtual Annual General Meeting (AGM)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

24

IFTA 2020 Virtual Annual Conference

IFTA/VTAD Varies

OnlineTBA

https://ifta.org/

1

IFTA Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/
publicatons/journal/

10Monthly Meeting

STA

To be confirmed

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London EC2R 6EA

6.30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-December
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

7

STA Diploma, Part 1

NA

StayAhead Training Centre, London

10.00amhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/
examinations/

8Monthly Meeting

STA

To be confirmed

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London EC2R 6EA

6.30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-March
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 1 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Deadline to register for Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) II held on
TBA April 2021

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Session 2 paper deadline IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2021
Feb

Mar
15
Apr
May

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Leve II Examination

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II - registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-June
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

IFTAUPDATE 2019 Volume 26 Issue 4

page 5

Balance professional
development andyour personal life with
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WHY PURCHASE THE HOME STUDY COURSE?
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that best suit you. Although website based, it is fully
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Mac, iPad or Android machines.

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examinations.

WHAT WILL IT COVER?

WHO IS THE COURSE FOR?

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IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 27 Issue 1

IFTA Member Societies

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
GHANA—BSG Bastiat Society Ghana https://fbiresearchedu.org
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.ataindia.in
INDIA—ATMA* Association of Technical Market Analysts www.atma.ac
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule

The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
September Issue

All content due August 15

December Issue

All content due November 15

March Issue

All content due February 15

June Issue

All content due May 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

page 24

Board of Directors
President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
mohamed.elsaiid@ifta.org
Vice President Middle East and Africa Tamer Gamel Edin Hassan, CFTe (ESTA)
tgamal@gmail.com
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Treasurer and Website Director Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
karin.roller@vtad.de
Conference Director Wieland Arlt, CFTe (VTAD)
wieland.arlt@ifta.org
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Development Director Ron William, MSTA, CFTe, CMT (SAMT)
ron.william@ifta.org
Examination Director Saleh Nasser, CFTe, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@ifta.org
Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Marketing and Webinar Director Tom Hicks, MSTA (STA)
tom.hicks@live.co.uk
Director Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe (MATA)
nmihsan@gmail.com
Director Giovanni Trombetta, CFTA, Electronic Engineer (SIAT)
giovanni.trombetta@gandalfproject.com
Director Tomoya Suzuki, Ph.D., CMTA, CFTe, MFTA (NTAA)
tomoya.suzuki.lab@vc.ibaraki.ac.jp

Staff

Executive Director Charles W.L. Deale, FASAE, CAE
Senior Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Senior Marketing Director Julie Hill
Production Manager Maryia Alenchyk
Managing Editor Lynne Agoston
Director of Accounting Services Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org