Conference on the International Atomic 第41回原子力委員会
資料第2-2号
Energy Agency at 60
Washington, November 6, 2017

Panel III. Promotion of Peaceful Uses
Nobuyasu Abe, Commissioner
Japan Atomic Energy Commission

An individual view of one Commissioner

 IAEA: key instrumental role in promoting peacefuluses of nuclear energy Learning the history: History of the IAEA; the First
Forty Years, David Fischer
 “Atoms for Peace” by President Eisenhower
 Original idea; to build a common nuclear energy
structure to share fissile material and uranium
international fuel bank…..long, long afterwards1

 Driving force for promoting peaceful use of nuclear
energynational governments & industries
 Initial focus: nuclear energy for electric power
generation
later focus on agricultural, industrial,
health applications
 Golden Age of nuclear energy 1960s and 70s
1956 Suez Crisis, 1973 Oil Crisis Rapid growth continued to mid-1980s.
 Major slow downs after three big accidents, TMI,
Chernobyl, Fukushima Confounded by concerns about proliferation andnuclear terrorism
 Austria and some other Western countries moved
away from nuclear power generation.
 ★ Many optimistic projections proved to be way
over the marks attained in reality.
2Global nuclear power generating capacity

Total global nuclear power generating capacity in operation between 1955 and 2016
(blue area, left axis). Annual additions (red bars, right axis) and the capacity ofreactors going offline or being shut down (yellow bars, right axis). Source:International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) PRIS database and Carbon Brief analysis.
Chart by Carbon Brief.

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Nuclear electricity generation

Global nuclear electricity generation (blue area, left axis) and nuclear’s share of total
world power generation (red bars, right axis). Source: BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2015 and Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Carbon Brief.

4Future Group A: wealthy, advanced industrial countries
facing increasing difficulty, some moving away;
Austria, Sweden, Switzerland, Germany, the U.S. (?),
Japan (?), the U.K. and France in grey zone.
 Group B:rise of the non-market economy giants andthe new comers; Russia, South Korea (?), China,India Key determining factors; (1) how far the world tries
seriously to prevent global warming,
 (2) how to count the near carbon-free nature ofnuclear energy into equation. (e.g. carbon tax)
 (3) how to take care of the nuclear accident liability,
should the state be the ultimate recourse?
 (4) Can the nuclear waste disposal be managed well?
5Promotion vs. moving out

Freedom Score: based on “Freedom in the World, 2016” by Freedom House(https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2016)
Promotion vs. moving out: grading done by Mr. Nobuyasu Abe, generator of this chart.
Country name abbreviation: based on ISO country codes

6Future-2
 Uncertain prospect casts doubts about future
investment in nuclear power.
 Certain incentivizing framework needed; subsidies,carbon tax, price guarantee, investment guarantee,
favorable damage compensation arrangement
 They should better be least market interfering,
least corruptible ⇒ carbon tax preferred, e.g.
Baker/Shultz, Paulson proposal.

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