环境篇

嶄忽廉何伏蓑狼由忝栽得浩刘 纪 远
COE-ICCS೑䰙ⷨ䅼Ӯ〈中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所〉
2005, 12, 8-9 ࣫Ҁ

COE-ICCS೑䰙ⷨ䅼Ӯ

2005, 12, 8-9 ࣫Ҁ⋡ᔩ⋡ᔩ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬⋡ᔩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅ
2005, 12, 8-9 ࣫Ҁ

COE-ICCS೑䰙ⷨ䅼ӮЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘ԄЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅ߬㑾䖰Ё೑⾥ᄺ䰶ഄ⧚⾥ᄺϢ䌘⑤ⷨお᠔߬㑾䖰Ё೑⾥ᄺ䰶ഄ⧚⾥ᄺϢ䌘⑤ⷨお᠔߬㑾䖰Ё೑⾥ᄺ䰶ഄ⧚⾥ᄺϢ䌘⑤ⷨお᠔⋡ᔩ

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atabout9%
annuallyin 1979-2004  Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬⋡ᔩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂
China’seconomy grew at about 9% annually in 1979-2004

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China’s economy grew at about 9% annually in 1979-2004

Shares of agricultural and non-agricultural GDP inChina, 1970-2004

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China’s economy now is about 10 times as that in 1978

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China’s economy now is about 10 times as that in 1978

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China’s economy now is about 10 times as that in 1978

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环境篇ऎඳ㞾✊⦃๗䯂乬

Population shifts in China, 1980-2000ᑆᯅञᑆᯅഄऎऴ
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Ҏഛ䌘⑤䞣ᇥǃ⦃๗߽⫼⥛ԢᰃЁ೑থሩⱘЏ㽕ࠊ㑺಴㋴ǄЁ೑Џ㽕Ҏഛ䌘⑤ऴ᳝䞣ϡࠄϪ⬠ᑇഛ∈
ᑇⱘ1/2ˈⱒϛ㕢‫ܗ‬GDPⱘ㛑㗫ैᰃϪ⬠ᑇഛ∈ᑇ
ⱘ3.4‫ס‬乘䅵㟇2020ᑈˈЁ೑Ҏষᇚ䖒ࠄ
14ˉ15ғˈҎഛ䌘⑤⍜㗫䞣ᇚ㒻㓁๲ࡴˈ䌘⑤ⷁ㔎ᇚϹ䞡䰤ࠊЁ೑᳾ᴹথሩ⷇⓴࣪ⱘች⒊ഄऎ䴶⿃䖒90ϛᑇᮍ݀䞠෎ᴀೳഄ䌘⑤ǃ∈䌘⑤ǃ㛑⑤䯂乬ॳྟỂᵫ᠔࠽᮴޴ˈỂᵫࡳ㛑ϟ䰡ˁ㗩ഄ೼࣫ᮍˈ䖛ᑺᓔথ੠催ᔎᑺҎ㉏ⱘ⌏ࡼᇐ㟈⫳ᗕ䗔࣪㣗ೈᠽ໻ˈॅᆇϹ䞡݊Ёᕜ໻ϔ䚼ߚߚᏗ೼㔎∈ⱘढ࣫㤝എ䗔࣪⑓ഄ㧢㓽ೳഄ≭⓴࣪ࡴ䗳⫳⠽໮ḋᗻ‫ޣ‬ᇥ໪ᴹ⠽⾡ܹ։Ϲ䞡㽓䚼ϾⳕऎᏖऴ೑ೳ䴶⿃ⱘˁˈҎষাऴˁ∈ೳ⌕༅㣗ೈᠽ໻ˁⱘ∈䌘⑤ߚᏗ೼䭓∳ҹफ

Middle Reach of Yellow River࣫ᮍ≭ᇬᲈ

Hetao Irrigation Field

Wind Soil Erosion Region

Sand storm in Gansu

Ninxia Irrigation Field

Aug.15, 2002

Effect of Storm in Beijing

Aug. 8, 2002

100

MODIS Image: Dust Storm
Date: 2001/03/20

中国西部生态系统综合评估䭓∳ϝ㾦⌆ⱘජᏖᠽሩYangzhou⋡ᔩNantong

Zhenjiang
ChangzhouNanjing Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂

Wuxi

MaanshanϞ⍋SuzhouWuhu

Hangzhou

Shaoxing

1990

Ninbo

2000

೑䰙0$ⱘὖᗉḚᶊ गᑈ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅ˄0LOOHQQLXP(FRV\VWHP$VVHVVPHQW㓽‫ݭ‬Ў0$˅ᰃϔ乍Ўᳳಯᑈⱘ೑䰙ড়԰乍Ⳃˈ݊Ⳃᷛᰃ⒵䎇‫އ‬ㄪ㗙ᇍ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ϢҎ㉏⽣߽П䯈ⳌѦ㘨㋏ᮍ䴶⾥ᄺֵᙃⱘ䳔∖ˈ䖯㗠䗮䖛ᬍ୘⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ㅵ⧚ˈᴹ⒵䎇Ҏ㉏থሩⱘ৘⾡䳔∖⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ᰃഄ⧗⫳ੑᬃᣕ㋏㒳ⱘ෎ᴀ㒘៤ऩ‫ˈܗ‬ᅗ᠔ᦤկⱘ㊂亳ǃ᳼ᴤǃ➗᭭ǃ㑸㓈ㄝѻકˈҹঞ‫⑤∈࣪ޔ‬ǃֱᣕ∈ೳǃ⏙⋕ぎ⇨੠㓈ᣕᭈϾഄ⧗⫳ੑᬃᣕ㋏㒳ⱘ〇ᅮᗻㄝ᳡ࡵࡳ㛑ˈᰃ⼒Ӯ㒣⌢ৃᣕ㓁থሩⱘ෎ᴀֱ䆕Ǆ ǉ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ϢҎ㉏⽣߽˖䆘ԄḚᶊǊᰃ䆹乍Ⳃⱘ㄀ϔϾ៤ᵰ䖯ܹᎹϮ࣪⼒ӮҹᴹˈҎ㉏ᇍ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘᕅડϢ䳔∖䖙䗳๲ࡴˈᥠᦵ݊ব࣪㾘ᕟϢ偅ࡼᴎࠊˈᦤߎᑨᇍㄪ⬹ˈᇍѢ㨑ᅲ21Ϫ㑾ৃᣕ㓁থሩⳂᷛᵕЎ䞡㽕Ǆ

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Ԅ䅵ߦ˄6XE*OREDO$VVHVVPHQW˅

101Ҏ㉏⽣߽ⱘ㒘៤㽕㋴կ㒭ࡳ㛑Ң⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㦋ᕫⱘѻક˖• ㊂亳• ⋕‫∈ޔ‬• ………

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• ………

• ೼⋕‫ޔ‬ǃᅝܼⱘ⦃๗Ё⫳ᄬⱘ㛑࡯• ⍜䰸ᑨᇍ⫳ᗕ‫ߏކ‬Ϣ⫳ᗕय़࡯ⱘ㛚ᔅᗻⱘ㛑࡯㓈ᣕ催䋼䞣⫳⌏ⱘ෎ᴀ⠽䋼䳔∖˖‫ع‬ᒋ˖• ᨘপ䎇໳㧹‫ⱘݏ‬㛑࡯• 䙓‫ܡ‬䙁ফৃ乘䰆⮒⮙։㺁ⱘ㛑࡯• 㦋ᕫ䎇໳⋕‫ޔ‬佂⫼∈ⱘ㛑࡯•……..

㡃དⱘ⼒Ӯ݇㋏˖• ᛳফϢ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳝݇ⱘ㕢ᄺϢစФӋؐⱘᴎӮ• ᛳফϢ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳝݇ⱘ᭛࣪Ϣ㊒⼲ӋؐⱘᴎӮ• 㾖⌟ǃⷨお੠䅸䆚⫳ᗕ
㋏㒳ⱘᴎӮ

⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵࡳ㛑ঞ݊ϢҎ㉏⽣߽П䯈ⱘ㘨㋏环境篇ܼ⧗ሎᑺሔඳሎᑺMAЏ㽕㒧䆎ৃҹ䞛পⱘㄪ⬹੠ᑆ乘Ҏ㉏⽣߽੠‫ޣ‬ᇥ䋿ೄz‫ع‬ᒋϢ⮒⮙z⦃๗ᅝܼz᭛࣪ᅝܼz㒣⌢ᅝܼz݀ᑇ෎ᴀ(䯈᥹)偅ࡼzҎষ᭄䞣ব࣪z㒣⌢ব࣪z⼒Ӯ੠ᬓ⊏ব࣪zᡔᴃব࣪z⫳⌏ᮍᓣ੠㸠Ўব࣪⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ঞ݊᳡ࡵࡳ㛑˄ഄ⧗Ϟⱘ⫳⠽˅zᬃᣕ˄⫳⠽໮ḋᗻҹঞ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䖛⿟˅zկᑨ˄亳⠽ǃ∈ǃ㑸㓈ǃ㛑⑤ঞ݊ᅗ⫳⠽ѻક˅z᭛࣪˄᭛࣪ǃᅵ㕢˅Ⳉ᥹偅ࡼz⇨‫׭‬ব࣪zೳഄǃ∈߽⫼੠㽚Ⲫব࣪z䕧ܹ಴㋴˄՟བ☠⑝ǃᮑ㙹ㄝ˅z∵ᶧzᬊ㦋z㧹‫⌕ݏ‬༅z⠽⾡ҟܹ 䖛এ50ᑈЁҎ㉏ᇍ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘᕅડ↨ग़৆Ϟⱘӏԩᯊᳳ䛑㽕ᖿ䗳੠ᑓ⊯ˈ䖭ᇐ㟈њഄ⧗Ϟ⫳⠽໮ḋᗻⱘᎼ໻ⱘǃϡৃ䗚ⱘᤳ༅Ǆ ᇍ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘᬍ䗴㒭Ҏ㉏⽣߽੠㒣⌢থሩᏺᴹњᎼ໻ⱘ䋵⤂ˈԚᰃ䖭ѯ‫ޔ‬ᬊⲞⱘ㦋ᕫᰃҹ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵ䗔࣪ǃ亢䰽▔๲੠䚼ߚかҎ⫳⌏᳈ࡴᙊ࣪ЎҷӋⱘǄ ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵⱘ䗔࣪೼᳾ᴹⱘ50ᑈ‫ݙ‬ᇚ䖯ϔℹࡴ࠻ˈ䖭ᇚϹ䞡࿕㚕㘨ড়೑गᑈথሩⳂᷛⱘᅲ⦄Ǆ ೼ϔѯᚙ᱃ϟˈৃҹ䚼ߚഄᅲ⦄䗚䕀⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䗔࣪ⱘ䍟࢓ৠᯊ⒵䎇ҎӀ᮹Ⲟ๲䭓ⱘ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵ䳔∖ǄԚᰃˈ䖭㽕∖೼ᬓㄪǃࠊᑺ੠ᅲ䏉Ϟ䖯㸠䞡໻䇗ᭈǄMAⱘὖᗉḚᶊ˖ব࣪ⱘ偅ࡼᴎࠊ⬅Ѣ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳೼ぎ䯈੠ᯊ䯈Ϟⱘ催ᑺবᓖᗻˈMA೼⼒ऎǃ⌕ඳǃ೑ᆊ੠ऎඳㄝሎᑺϞ䚼㕆њϔ㋏߫Ѯܼ⧗䆘Ԅ乍ⳂˈҹՓ݊䆘Ԅ㒧ᵰ᳝ࡽѢ৘⾡ぎ䯈ሎᑺ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘ᳝ᬜㅵ⧚Ǆ⋡ᔩ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂ⷨおऎὖ‫މ‬ ᑈ᳜ˈЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅ˄㣅᭛㓽‫ݭ‬Ў0$:(&˅乍Ⳃ㹿ℷᓣ⹂ᅮЎ佪ᡍਃࡼⱘϾѮܼ⧗ऎඳ䆘Ԅ乍ⳂПϔǄᑈ᳜ˈЁ೑⾥ᡔ䚼Ϣ೑ᆊ⦃ֱᘏሔ‫އ‬ᅮˈ㒘㒛Ё೑⾥ᄺ䰶ǃ೑ᆊ⦃ֱᘏሔ੠೑ᆊᵫϮሔㄝ䚼䮼
ⱘ᳝݇⾥ⷨऩԡ੠ϧᆊˈℷᓣਃࡼЁ೑㽓䚼⫳
ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅ乍ⳂǄ

102

中国西部生态系统综合评估

MODIS Integrated Environment Monitoring System‫އ‬ㄪᬃᣕⶹ䆚ᑧ῵ൟᑧ㋏㒳໮⑤ֵᙃ㵡ড়HPSMֵᙃ㵡ড়ᑇৄ∈᭛⇨‫׭‬ᬓㄪㅵ⧚ഄ䋼㒣⌢ҎᴎѸѦ⬠䴶໮ሎᑺֵᙃ㵡ড়᭄᥂ҧᑧഄ䉠ೳຸỡ㹿⼒Ӯ᭛࣪Ҏষ‫ܗ‬᭄᥂ᑧCoverage of MODIS dataֵᙃ⑤䘹ᛳ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳 ⦃๗ⲥ⌟ⷨお㔥৘⾡㒳䅵᭄᥂῵ᢳߚᵤ㒧ᵰ㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅ㋏㒳New MODIS data processing algorithm(c) LAI mapping method (3/3)

Interannaul change of false
color composite images, LAIand NDVIЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅ᭄᥂ᑧ——⫼᠋㋏㒳⬠䴶Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕࡳ㛑ߚऎЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅⱘ᭄᥂ᑧ䲚៤㋏㒳ᑇৄҎষ⼒Ӯ㒣⌢᭄᥂ᑧぎ䯈䲚៤ೳഄ߽⫼᭄ ᥂ ᑧᇍഄ㾖⌟᭄᥂ᑧ䲚៤ೳຸ㉏ൟ⧚࣪ᗻ᭄᥂ᑧೳຸ։㱔᭄ ᥂ ᑧ䰚ഄ㸼ሖ㞾✊㽕㋴᭄᥂ᑧぎ䯈䲚៤‫ބ‬Ꮁ㓪Ⳃ᭄ ᥂ ᑧ㞾✊ഄ೒⾥ᄺ᭄᥂ᑧ䲚៤⑓ ഄ᭄ ᥂ ᑧܼ⧗বֵ࣪ᙃ䲚៤␪ ⊞᭄ ᥂ ᑧ≭ ⓴᭄ ᥂ ᑧЁ೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㓐ড়䆘Ԅⱘ᭄᥂ᑧ䲚៤㋏㒳ᑇৄ103环境篇⫳ᗕ䯂乬ϧϮ῵ൟᵘᓎ῵ൟᑧㅵ⧚㋏㒳 催㊒ᑺ᳆䴶ᓎ῵㾷‫އ‬໮ሎᑺ䯂乬ⱘϔ⾡ᮄᮍ⊩ ⇨⏽ব࣪ぎ䯈ᦦؐ῵ൟ 䰚ഄ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ぎ䯈ߚᏗ+/=ߚᵤ῵ൟ ໮ሎᑺ⫳ᗕ໮ḋᗻ῵ൟ ᭥ഫ䖲䗮ᗻ῵ൟ &(96$⫳ᗕ䖛⿟῵ൟ 䰚ഄ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳亳⠽կ㒭ࡳ㛑䆘Ԅ῵ൟ
 603'ҎষߚᏗ᳆䴶῵ൟ 䯜ؐ῵ൟ ೳഄ߽⫼ᯊぎব࣪῵ൟ ……

䗝ᢽ῵ൟ῵ൟᑧᵘ䗴῵ൟ῵ൟ䲚៤᭄᥂㒧ᵘぎ䯈᭄᥂ഄ⧚⡍ᕕᢧᠥ݇㋏

খ᭄ব䞣ഄ⧚ֵᙃ㋏㒳

ӓⳳ῵ൟ㸠Ў⡍ᕕ

7KHPHVᢧᠥ㸠Ўᄤ῵ൟ῵ൟᑧ㋏㒳Ϣ*,6䲚៤Ё೑㽓䚼+/=⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ぎ䯈ߚᏗⱘব࣪䍟࢓⋡ᔩ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂1980ᑈҷ᳿㽓䚼ഄऎ䰚ഄ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳133Ϣ1(3ব࣪䍟࢓ೳഄ߽⫼⦄⢊Ϣব࣪䍟࢓1990ᑈҷ᳿෎Ѣ䰚ഄि᯳TM᭄᥂ⱘೳഄ߽⫼೒

CEVSA῵ᢳⱘЁ೑㽓䚼ഄऎNPP˄Ꮊ˅੠NEP˄ে˅ব࣪䍟࢓೒104中国西部生态系统综合评估‫ৼ˄⬄ݰ‬/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅㤝ഄ˄݀᭸㕞㙝/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅1930ᑈ∈⫳⫳ᗕ㋏㒳˄݀᭸剐/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅1949ᑈ

2000ᑈЁ೑㽓䚼ഄऎ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳Ё೑ҎষߚᏗব࣪䍟࢓亳⠽կ㒭ࡳ㛑˄ऩԡ:Ҏ/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅෎ᴀ⢊‫މ‬Ϣ䍟࢓Ё೑㽓䚼ഄऎ೼ᆠ㺩ൟ⫳⌏∈ᑇϟ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳Ҏষᡓ䕑࡯˄Ҏ/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅ 䆘Ԅ㒧ᵰ㸼ᯢˈ⬅Ѣ⇨‫׭‬ব࣪੠Ҏ㉏⌏ࡼঠ䞡偅ࡼ࡯ⱘ԰⫼ˈ䖥ᑈᴹ៥೑㽓䚼ഄऎ৘㉏⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䛑ᄬ೼ϡৠ⿟ᑺⱘ䗔࣪ˈ∌Й‫ބ‬䲾䴶⿃ᣕ㓁‫ޣ‬ᇣˈ㤦⓴䴶⿃๲ࡴ˗Ԛ⫳ᗕ
㋏㒳໮ḋᗻਜ๲ࡴ䍟࢓ˈᰃ៥೑ⱘ䞡㽕⺇∛Ǆህ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ᡓ䕑࡯㗠㿔ˈ໻ජᏖ਼䖍ഄऎǃ⫬㙗ǃ䰩㽓ǃᅕ໣੠䌉Ꮂⱘ䚼ߚഄऎ᳝䍙䕑⦄䈵ˈԚᭈϾ㽓䚼ഄऎᭈԧϞ䖬᳝ᇥ䞣ᡓ䕑┰࡯ǄЁ೑㽓䚼ഄऎ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳Ҏষय़࡯Ё೑㽓䚼䌘⑤ǃ⦃๗ǃ⫳ᗕⱘЏ㽕⶯ⳒҎϢ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳݇㋏ⱘӬ࣪῵ᓣ߱㑻ᵫϮ⫳ѻঞ⬰⠻ϮⱘথሩϢỡ㹿⸈ണࡴ䞡ⱘ⶯ⳒᎹ‫ݰ‬Ϯ੠⫳⌏⫼∈䞣๲໻Ϣ∈䌘⑤᮹䍟㋻ᓴⱘ⶯Ⳓ㒣⌢ⱘᖿ䗳থሩϢ≭⓴࣪㒻㓁㫧ᓊⱘ⶯Ⳓ∈ೳ⌕༅ࡴ࠻⑓ഄೈൺϢֱᡸ⑓ഄⱘ‫ކ‬さҎ㉏ⱘᔎᑺᓔথ⌏ࡼϢ৘⾡♒ᆇ乥㐕থ⫳ⱘ⶯ⳒথሩᎹϮϢ⦃๗∵ᶧⱘ⶯Ⳓ䗮䖛೼9Ͼ‫݌‬ൟऎⱘ⏅ܹⷨお੠䆘ԄᎹ԰ˈ
MAWECᧁ⼎њϡৠ⫳ᗕഄᏺ੠⫳ᗕ㋏㒳Ё⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵࡳ㛑੠Ҏ㉏⽣߽ⱘ݇䬂‫ކ‬さˈᦤ⚐ߎϔѯ᳝ᬜⱘҎϢ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳݇㋏ⱘӬ࣪῵ᓣˈᇍֱ䱰㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ৃᣕ㓁ᗻᦤկњ㣗՟Ǆ105环境篇⫬㙗ⳕᑚ䰇Ꮦ⎸ഄറᓎ䆒ⱘ⫳ᗕᬜⲞ੠㒣⌢ᬜⲞഢ‫ܓ‬ѩ῵ᓣ˄∈կ㒭᳡ࡵࡳ㛑ⱘ㓈ᡸ˅ៜຕ≭ഄ≭ഄഢ‫ܓ‬ѩഢ‫ܓ‬ѩഢ‫ܓ‬ѩ∈≭∈≭∈≭∛∈໽ቅቅ㛝ៜຕ㓓⌆☿✄ቅ㓓⌆㓓⌆᳾߽⫼ഄറഄ⠅ϕ␪⎸ഄറ≳䘧⊏⧚⼎ᛣ೒“ग⚳⌆῵ᓣ”ᚙ᱃ߚᵤϬϞᵫ㤝Ϭ䯈ฬᵫ䯈㤝ഄ⇨‫׭‬ব࣪ᚙ᱃䰚ഄ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳾ᴹᚙ᱃
ೳഄ㽚㹿᳾ᴹᚙ᱃
亳⠽կ㒭ࡳ㛑ᚙ᱃Ё೑㽓䚼ഄऎҎষᡓ䕑࡯ᚙ᱃Ё೑㽓䚼থሩⱘ᳾ᴹᚙ᱃

⊇䈋Ⓗഄᵰ剐㊂⬰⠻∈ѻⳌ៤䫒㳰‬ൖᵱࡴᎹ⌕䗮ϸ݈ᯎ剸剐៣∈䴦ቅ㓓∈෎ѢHadCM3A1FIⱘЁ೑HLZ䰚ഄ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ぎ䯈ߚᏗ
˄T1ǃT2ǃT3੠T4
ߚ߿ҷ㸼 1961-1990
ᑈǃ2010-2039ᑈǃ
2040-2069ᑈ੠20702099ᑈ˅
Ё೑෎ѢHadCM3B2aⱘೳഄ㽚㹿᳾ᴹᚙ᱃
˄T1ǃT2ǃT3੠T4ߚ߿ҷ㸼 1961-1990ᑈǃ2010-2039ᑈǃ2040-2069ᑈ੠2070-2099ᑈ˅106中国西部生态系统综合评估 ೼᳾ᴹⱘ㟇ᑈЁˈ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳໮ḋᗻ੠ᵫഄ㽚Ⲫ䴶⿃᳝䕗໻๲ࡴˈ৘㉏⫳ᗕ㋏㒳⫳ѻ࡯ᦤ催ˈ⺇∛԰⫼ࡴᔎǄ Ԛᰃˈ⏽ᑺछ催ᇚᇐ㟈䴦㮣催ॳ੠㽓࣫ഄऎ∌Й‫ބ‬䲾ഄᏺⱘᣕ㓁䗔㓽ˈ㽓࣫ഄऎⱘ㤦⓴䴶⿃ҡӮԢ䗳ᠽሩǄ 㽓䚼ഄऎ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘ亳⠽կ㒭ࡳ㛑ᭈԧϞᇚ໘ѢϞछᗕ࢓ˈḍ᥂Ҏষ๲䭓䍟࢓ߚᵤˈ㽓䚼ഄऎ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ᡓ䕑࡯㛑໳ֱ䱰㽓䚼ഄऎᴀϪ㑾ⱘҎষথሩˈԚሔ䚼ഄऎҎഄ㋏㒳⶯ⳒさߎǄ བᵰᓔሩ᳝ᬜⱘ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ֱᡸϢׂ໡ˈ䙷М㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ᇚӮਜ⦄ߎ㡃ᗻথሩⱘ䍟࢓˗ডПˈབᵰҎ㉏⌏ࡼᔎᑺ䍙ߎ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳㞾䑿㋏㒳ᑇ㸵䇗᥻㣗ೈˈ䙷М᳾ᴹ㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ᇚӮ㓈ᣕⳂࠡⱘ䗔࣪䍟࢓ˈ⫮㟇ࡴ䗳䗔࣪Ǆ2020ᑈЁ೑Ҏষぎ䯈ߚᏗᚙ᱃II˄ऩԡ˖Ҏ/ᑇᮍ݀䞠˅⋡ᔩ0$ᚙ᱃乘⌟˄㽓䚼ऎඳ⇨‫׭‬ব࣪੠㾘ߦᅲᮑⱘ偅ࡼ˅⫳ᗕ㋏㒳᳡ࡵ㛑࡯Ϣѻߎⱘব࣪ᚙ᱃ऎඳ⇨‫׭‬ব࣪῵ᓣ

˄2020 - 2050˅

+䯂乬Ϣ㾷‫އ‬䗨ᕘ㾘ߦᅲᮑ῵ᢳ㽓䚼໻ᓔথ䆒ᅮⳂᷛⱘ䳔∖ᚙ᱃ᇍㄪ䗝ᢽϢ߽ᓞᴗ㸵

˄2020 - 2050˅

˄‫އ‬ㄪᬃᣕ˅ Ё೑ⱘথሩϢ⫳ᗕ⦃๗䯂乬 㘨ড়೑0$䅵ߦⱘ෎ᴀḚᶊ Ё೑㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㋏㒳䆘Ԅⱘᮍ⊩ 䞡㽕䆘Ԅ㒧䆎 ᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂㽓䚼MAⱘᇍㄪϢᓎ䆂 䗮䖛⫳ᗕࡳ㛑ऎߦˈ᳝ऎඳ䩜ᇍᗻഄ䖯㸠⫳ᗕᓎ䆒ˈᣛᇐҎ㉏೼⡍ᅮ⫳ᗕഄᏺ੠⫳ᗕ㋏㒳‫ⱘݙ‬㸠Ўˈ䙓‫ⳂⳆܡ‬᮴ᑣⱘᓔথǄ ᇚᓎゟ㡖∈ൟ⼒Ӯ԰Ў㽓䚼থሩⱘ෎ᴀᇍㄪǄ ᅲᮑҹֱᡸ੠ᘶ໡ᵫ㤝ỡ㹿ЎḌᖗⱘ㤦⓴࣪䰆⊏Ꮉ⿟Ǆ ⫳ᗕ㋏㒳ⱘֱᡸϢׂ໡ᰃϔ乍䭓ᳳ㗠໡ᴖⱘ㋏㒳Ꮉ⿟ˈ䖿ߛ䳔㽕ᓎゟᑊᅠ୘ϔ༫ᅠᭈᑊ㛑ᓊ㓁ⱘᬓㄪԧ㋏Ǆ ೼ܼ೑㣗ೈ‫ܼݙ‬䴶᥼㸠ϰ㽓䚼⫳ᗕ㸹ٓᴎࠊǄ䇶䇶 !

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