Tropical Cyclone Idai
Lessons learned and the way forward forAfrica Alliance for Disaster ResearchInstitutions (AADRI)
By Prof. Desmond Manatsa
Chair, AADRI; and Dean of the Faculty of Science and Engineering
Bindura University of Science, Zimbabwe

Several months have passed since Tropical Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe and leaving behind atrail of destruction and casualties unprecedented of any natural disaster in Zimbabwe oreven in southern Africa’s modern history. The number of those dead and the devastation it
inflicted on property and the environment was far more than what the cyclone caused inMozambique where it made landfall when it still retained much higher destructive powerfrom the Indian Ocean. Then what could be the reason that exposed our nation to such aprecarious state to this cyclone? Media and various platforms proposed many theories,
stories have been told both of natural and supernatural nature to try to explain the possible
causes which led to this catastrophe. The human’s most sharpened talent of apportioning
blame whilst proffering little or no solution was also not spared. However, what is importantto the people of Chimanimani and Zimbabwe at large is to remove the fear that thiscalamity might happen again in future. The most essential undertaking at this juncture is tosystematically extract lessons from the cyclone’s impacts that can catapult us to a state
where we can live in harmony with this natural hazard while harnessing the ‘positives’ andreducing the associated risks. Though not exhaustive, here we examine the lessons which
could be derived from Cyclone Idai’s extraordinary impact before examining the way
forward from a national action research perspective under the banner of the Africa Alliancefor Disaster Research Institutions (AADRI).
Physical Vulnerabilities associated with Tropical Cyclone Idai
The tropical cyclone made landfall over the Mozambique coast, more than 200km awayfrom the eastern border with Zimbabwe, on the 14th of March 2019, before slowly moving
to hit Chimanimani at about 7:00 pm the following day on Friday. As expected with tropical
cyclones when they make land fall, their potential destructive force in terms wind speed andamount of deposited rainfall is severely curtailed as it moves inland due to decrease in ‘fuelinput to the cyclone engine’. The enhanced smoothness and evaporation from the sea
surface waters offer conducive environment for the cyclone to increase in strength while
the land surface friction and reduced surface evaporation from the relatively dry land tend1

to suffocate the cyclone thereby killing it gradually. But despite more lead time to prepare
for the cyclone and reduced force of potential damage we still see that Mozambique had far
less casualties, environmental and infrastructure destruction than Zimbabwe. The possible
factors which can be attributed to this rather unfortunate scenario is the level of disaster
preparedness of Zimbabwe, the fragile environment that was offered by the predominant
mountainous landscape and the relatively slow speed of the cyclone which enabled it todamp a lot of rainfall per unit time. This could have been compounded by the time when
the disaster came, which was in the dark of the night hence reducing visibility to assess
evacuation options for the victims and, severely limited the search and rescue processes.
The general Preparedness and the issuing of the Tropical Cyclone Warning
The number of people affected by a hazard are in direct proportion to the preparedness ofthe community to the impending disaster. If I may quote from one of the victims, “No oneknows where this water came from, it took us by surprise”, clearly testifies to the fact that mostof the communities affected had not been fore warned about the impending floods. While
the Meteorological Services can be applauded for having given the warning a least 2 days
before the cyclone, can we learn something from how the forecast was issued. My few
lessons on disaster warnings which I had some decades back tells me that when one is more
confident of an impending disaster, the frequency of the warnings should not only beincreased with time but also updated to suit the changing circumstances as the hazard
characteristics unfold. We are told that that the Met Office stuck to their 8:00 pm News slot
to disseminate the warning instead of soliciting for more slots both on the TV and radio toconscientize the people of the impending disaster. At the same time, the TV and radio could
also have allowed unscheduled warnings to be flighted. Unless the Met Forecasters
themselves were not sure of the magnitude of the expected cyclone impact, I am confident
that the more they had exposed the people to the warnings by increasing the issuingfrequency and updates, the more they were going to be taken more seriously by the related
stakeholders responsible for evacuating the communities who were at risk. On the other
hand, even if a warning is issued timeously and, with the required frequency and mode ofdissemination which reaches down to the communities, these people also need to knowwhat to do when a warning has been issued. Their prior coordinated response is key toensure predictable community behavior when the hazard strikes. It is a welcome
development that Chimanimani Rural District Council is one of the few districts in thecountry to have adopted the District Climate Change and Watershed Management Policy.
But were the local communities trained on what to do when flood warnings are issued? At
the same time, evacuation needs resources both to carry out the process and providing safe
havens, endowed with food and other necessities. Were these readily available to executethe process? We understand that the contents of the tropical cyclone warning itself advised
people to move to high ground. Was this the correct advice to give to Chimanimani in theface of rock and mudslides which made these high places riskier, especially that the disasterstruck at night when most people were indoors and preparing to sleep? These are some ofthe preparedness questions we need to ask ourselves as we take introspect of the lessons
derived from the Tropical Cyclone Idai preparedness and warning.

2Fragility and Vulnerability of Settlements in the Mountainous Environment ofChimanimani.
Tropical Cyclone Idai brought to the fore the high degree of exposure of settlements andhow fragile the mountainous environments are. The cyclone came after the region has been
exposed to a prolonged drought which removed the capacity of the vegetation left to holdthe soil intact. The accelerated land degradation and frequent fires which characterize
periods of drought removed vegetation and hence limited root depths, thereby increasing
the landslide hazard. It was then easy for the loose waterlogged soil to flow downslope andwith it, imbedded rocks which then chocked the normal flow of the water thereby
exacerbating the flooding spatial extent and intensity. As such, the blocked rivers reopened
old paths which had for the past decades been converted to settlements. A case in point is
the Kopa Business Center which was raised to the ground and leaving behind little or noshred of evidence that buildings, with thriving businesses, were once predominant in thearea as the river repossessed its former route. This means that old river paths remain unsafe
for settlements as at some point in time the river may still rejuvenate its former paths.
Therefore, careful planning for resettlement sites needs to take into consideration thepossibility of changing river course characteristics.
On the other hand, the prevailingsuperstitions surrounding the presence of the large rock boulders which were left in theriver channels by the flowing mud from the mountain slopes owes a scientific explanation.
It was the large and uneven multi-tone rocks which were hitting against the slope surfaces
as they were rolling downslope which were wrongly interpreted as an earthquake that
accompanied the tropical cyclone. This was corroborated by the Meteorological Services
which confirmed not recording any seismic activity in the area during the cyclone. Explaining
this phenomenon to the affected communities assists in focusing on the real causes whilst
getting rid of superstitious beliefs which usually lead to wrong attribution to the causes ofthe disaster. Dwelling on superstitious beliefs has the danger of diverting the community’s
attention to immaterial answers rather than providing implementable scientifically backedsolutions.

The way Forward under AADRIWith the advent of climate change, tropical cyclones are not going ‘anywhere’, rather they
are poised to become more frequent and accompanied by increased intensity. In thisregard, it is invertible that we find ways to live with them whilst preventing themetamorphosis process from being just a mere meteorological hazard to becoming an
unmanageable national disaster. This is ‘doable’ as Islands like Mauritius that lie in the pathof more intense tropical cyclones and are hit directly more than once in every cyclone
season, are now nearing the zero target casualty. At the same time, it is more than welcomethat the general shock from the devastating impacts of Tropical Cyclone Idai have once
again united the nation through unprecedented donations towards the victims’ recovery. It
has also spontaneously given birth to a strong desire from national disaster research
institutions, to learn from this disaster in the bid to understand why this phenomenon
happened with such dire consequences.
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In research terms, Chimanimani provides a conducive operational background and a welldefined geographical area, which could provide for feasible action orientated research that
could inform policy and action in other areas within Zimbabwe and beyond. The fact thatthe region has all the five Agroecological Regions of the country makes the results derived
from the research to be relevantly replicated in any other part of the country. In this regard,
Bindura University of Science Education under AADRI with its vast experience in disaster risk
reduction research is coordinating a consortium of other state universities to properly
document, in a scientifically informed way, the lessons learnt from tropical Cyclone Idai. Thisnational action orientated research, which is yet to source for funding, is poised to pave way
for a future situation that would allow the communities within Zimbabwe to be better
prepared and become more resilient in the face of potentially recurring Climate Change
related events such as Cyclone Idai. The strategy is to ride upon the shock that is currently
vividly present within Zimbabwe and beyond to bring sustainable policy initiatives andpractices in view of various interests that could provide for learning and dedicated action inChimanimani and other nationally comparable situations. The objective of the research is to‘Build National Resilience to Tropical Cyclones through deriving lesson from Tropical CycloneIdai’. Preliminary work to enable scouting for solid funding for this noble action research
was conducted at a workshop in Harare that was facilitated by TSURO Trust, a communitybased NGO in Chimanimani that was actively involved in Cyclone Idai relief and recovery.

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The once thriving Kopa Business Centre that was completely destroyed by Cyclone Idai

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Large boulders and mud that was carried downslope and destroying houses in their path
during Cyclone Idai.

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