2022 Volume 29 Issue 3

IN THIS ISSUE
1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

IFTA 35th Annual Conference
3 Registration Informationa newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

President’s Report to Colleagues

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a notfor-profit professional organization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 (240) 404-6508

5 Accommodations
6 Sponsorship Opportunities
10 Member News
Education Lounge
12 FSC Critical Roundtable on Gold andMetals15 Will King Dollar Lose Its Crown?
18 Technical Analysis Is at an
Unprecedented Historical Point Thanks to
Artificial Intelligence
22 Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengthsof 2-Candlestick Reversal Patterns
27 Congratulations New CFTes
27 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
28 IFTA Board of Directors Nominees

Dear Colleagues,
As the year enters its
fourth quarter, we arepreparing for IFTA’s 35th
Annual Conference —finally in person again!
We will have a great selection of speakers from around the world as well as lotsof opportunities for personal meetings andtalks. Honestly speaking, I can´t wait to
finally be in Melbourne and meet all of you!

32 Calendar-at-a-Glance
34 IFTA Member Societies
34 Board of Directors
34 IFTA Staff

Next Issue: December 2022
Submission Deadline: 15 November
Education Lounge articles: Send
submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
All other content: Send submissions toadmin@ifta.org.
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to www.ifta.org.

So, although it feels quite normal, looking
at the world we are living in, apparently it isfar from normal. The war in Ukraine is stillgoing on and throws its long, dark shadow
all over Europe and the world. COVID stillis an issue. Energy is more costly, and so is
food—causing high inflation rates throughout the world, affecting everyone.
So, speaking of a normal is more a dreamthan a reality. Saying this, I think that we as

professional technical analysts, investors,
and traders can be very grateful to be ina position where we not only can predict
some of the effects—and can therefore prepare ourselves and our companies, clients,
subscribers, and family and friends—but
also can cope with the high prices. As ourart is predicting price movements, we caneasily follow this. But most people can’t. So,
it is on us to teach them how to analyze,
invest, and trade.
This is our profession; this is our mission—and I couldn´t be happier to be a part of it.

All the best,

Wieland Arlt
IFTA President

IFTA2022

Annual General Meeting
Thursday, 6 October 2022
(4:00 pm–6:00 pm)

The Rendezvous Hotel
Melbourne, Australia
All IFTA colleagues are encouraged
and invited to attend. For further
information, contact IFTA staff.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 2Highlights:
 Hear from top trading and investing
professionals as they share practicalways to profit in these ever changing
markets.
 14 sessions over three full days.
 Network with fellow professional andindependent traders and investors.
With markets turning more volatile andunpredictable in a changing global
landscape, it’s well worth arming yourself
with the skills and tools to be able tomaximise opportunity in this uncertain
environment.
With that in mind, how would you like tolearn practical trading ideas and robust
risk management strategies from industry
leading professionals, that you can takeaway and use to enhance your bottom
line?
What if you could network with the creamof professional and independent traders
and investors internationally, and makeconnections that will help you get towhere you want to be?

Imagine if you could uncover fresh
trading strategies to add to your portfolio,
helping you to profit through all phasesof market cycles.
What if you had the chance to give
your trading the boost it deserves bydedicating three days to invest in yourself
and your trading?
How would it feel to have taken positive
action and invested in yourself to improveyour trading and investing?
All this and more for less than the cost ofa few stop losses – and it may even be
tax deductable!

 Don’t miss your chance to meet andmingle with the speakers too.
 The latest trading products and services
will also be on show.
 A premier location in the centre of
Melbourne, Australia, close to transport
links.
 Just a $1,097 AUD investment for all IFTA
affiliated members (yes, that includes
ATAA members), with early registration
bonuses.
 Also, join us for a gala dinner on Saturdaynight. Spend quality time with the
speakers in a relaxed environment.
 Links to recordings of all speakerpresentations (slides plus audio)
exclusively available to you following theconference.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 3

Registration categories

Standard registration will apply to registrations processedand payments received from Saturday 13 August 2022
and later.
Registrations received after Friday 23 September are notguaranteed to receive the standard delegate materials.

Registration fees

All prices are in Australian dollars and include 10% GST.

Registration Information
Please ensure you have read all theinformation on the page prior to registering.
How to register

Online registration is quick and simple and is processed
immediately. When you register online, you will receive
confirmation of your registration and a tax invoice via email.

Registration category

Standard
registration
register and pay
from Saturday 13
AugustIFTA Affiliated Society Members(includes ATAA members)
AUD $1,247
Nonmembers

AUD $1,447

Conference Grand DinnerGrand Dinner ticket (Delegate)

AUD $140

Grand Dinner ticket (Guest)

AUD $160

If assistance is needed or an alternate registration method
required, please contact the conference secretariat,
Expert Events, by emailing
Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au.

Conference registration fees include:

Register here

 Attendance at all conference sessions

https://expertevents.eventsair.com/ataa-2022/
registration/Site/Register All morning/afternoon teas and lunches A conference satchel Access to the conference presentations (PDF of speakerslides) and the video recordings

Conference Grand Dinner

Enjoy a three-course meal, drinks and light entertainment
with friends and colleagues.
Date:

Saturday 8 October 2022

Time:

7:00 pm

Venue:The Heritage Room, Rendezvous
Hotel

Dress:

Smart casual

Delegate ticket:

AUD $140

Guest ticket:

AUD $160

Accommodation and travel expenses are in addition to
the registration fee.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 4

Registration Information, continued
Payment methods

Cancellations and refund policy

Credit card: Register online and choose the credit card
payment option (Visa or MasterCard only). Payment will
be processed immediately and will appear as “Expert
Events” on your statement.

Cancellations must be advised by email to the conference
secretariat. If you cancel your registration:(a) Before 5:00 pm on Friday 9 September, you will
receive a full refund, less a cancellation fee of AUD105;(b) After Friday 9 September, you have no entitlement toa refund of any amount.

All registration fees must be paid by the registration category due date and prior to attendance at the conference.
Payment can be made by:Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT): Register online andchoose the EFT payment option.
Account Name: Australian Technical Analysts Association
Bank: Commonwealth Bank
Address: S1093 Cnr Gold Coast Hwy & Town Ctr Dr,
Helensvale, 4212 QLD
BSB: 064-474
Account: 1080 5160
Swift Code: CTBAAU2S
Please include: your initials, last name and invoice number
as the reference. Remittance advice to be emailed to:
Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au

Changes to your registration

If you need to make changes to your registration, please
send them by email to the conference secretariat, Expert
Events, at Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au

Registrations are transferable to a colleague at any timeprior to the event, provided the conference secretariat
is advised in writing before the conference start date.

Contact us

For all conference related inquiries, please contact the
IFTA 2022 conference secretariat:

Tel:+61 7 3848 2100
Email: Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au
Mail:
PO Box 351, Hamilton Central QLD 4007 Australia

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

Accommodations
Booking Accommodation With Your
Registration

A limited number of hotel rooms have been reserved onbehalf of IFTA delegates at the Rendezvous Hotel.
Accommodation bookings can be made as part of theonline registration process.
Accommodation bookings will close on Monday 5
September 2022 or earlier if fully booked.
You may choose to find your own accommodation via
other hotel websites or booking agents. Any accommodation costs are in addition to your conference fee.
Please note, the Rendezvous Hotel will not have a recordof your booking until Wednesday 7 September 2022. If
you require further assistance or changes to your booking, please contact the conference secretariat, Expert
Events at Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au.

Arrival Time

Hotel check-in is from 15:00. Please indicate your estimated time of arrival during the booking process. If you
wish to guarantee that your room is ready before the hotel
check-in time, it is recommended that you book and pay
for the room for the evening prior to your arrival. Failure
to advise your arrival time if arriving after 18:00 may meanthat your room will be released.

Payment for Accommodation

A credit card number is required at the time of booking. This will be passed onto the hotel to guarantee yourbooking. If you wish the hotel to settle your account witha credit card of which you are not the signatory, you must
provide written authority to the hotel to do so. You may

page 5prepay the full amount of your accommodation via EFT(bank transfer) directly to the hotel within 30 days ofcheck in.

Changes to your Accommodation Booking

Please notify your requests for changes or cancellationby email directly to the conference secretariat, Expert
Events, at Conference-Bookings@ATAA.asn.au.
The Rendezvous Hotel
328 Flinders Street
Melbourne, 3000
(03) 9250 1888
Room type: Guest room
Bedding configuration: Queenor 2 single beds
Room rate per night: $215
Breakfast rate (pre-booked):$20/person/day
Located in the central business district, this 4.5-star historic hotel has been restored to retain the feel and styleof its 1913 origins while providing guests with modern
technology and facilities. Distinguished by elegance, historic significance, and traditional luxury, the Rendezvous
Hotel Melbourne offers 340 elegantly furnished guest
rooms and suites. Each includes individually controlled air
conditioning, cable TV, a private bathroom, and a private
electronic safe.
This award-winning hotel is within walking distance ofworld-class shopping, theatres, sports venues, entertainment, and dining. Federation Square and the historic
Flinders Street Train Station are right across from the hotel.
Check in/Check out: Check in from 15:00. Check out by
11:00. Concierge can arrange to store luggage for thoseguests arriving early when rooms are unavailable.

Car parking: Self parking, $25 per car, per 24 hours–
single entry and exit
Internet: Complimentary unlimited Wi-Fi for up to four
devices per room. Higher speed upgrade option for unlimited devices available for $9.95 per day
Security bond: The hotel will pre-authorize the credit
card to cover any incidentals and will require photo ID.
Payment: Payment is accepted by cash, EFT-POS, Visa,
Mastercard, American Express, or Diners Club.
If you would prefer to pre-pay the full amount of youraccommodation via EFT directly to the hotel, please
insert PRO-FORMA INVOICE in the special requirements
field on the accommodation page of the online registration form. Payment for the reservation via EFT must be
received no later than five working days prior to arrival.
All incidental charges incurred during your stay are yourown responsibility and must be settled upon checkout.
Credit card service fees: Please note that a 1.2% credit
card transaction fee will apply for Visa and Mastercard,and 2.5% for Diners and Amex.
Cancellation policy: Any cancellation of rooms within
30 days of arrival will result in a one night penalty, while
any cancellations received within 14 days prior to arrivalor “no show” will incur a penalty equal to 100% of theaccommodation cost.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 6Sponsorship Opportunities

IFTA’s 35th Annual Conference
Hosted by the ATAA

7–9 October 2022
Melbourne, Australia

For further information or to discuss which package isbest for your organisation, please contact Alan Clement.

E. alan.clement@ataa.asn.au
T. +61 437 192 279

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

Offering you the opportunity to showcase your brandas a sponsor of the premier international event for
active market practitioners.
The International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) will hold their 35th International
Conference in Melbourne, Australia. The 180 delegates in attendance will be a mix ofindustry professionals, as well as independent self-directed traders and investors. The themeof the event is “Maximising opportunity in an uncertain world”, with a focus on improving
human and strategy performance in the financial markets as we move in to an increasingly
uncertain landscape globally.
The conference provides a forum for delegates to meet, discuss and network, as well as tobuild and improve their wealth creation skills. Held over three days, there will be an array ofhigh calibre presentations delivered by the cream of the trading and investing industry. The
goal for attendees is to build new relationships with each other, meet product and service
providers, and learn practical trading approaches that can be implemented to profit from avariety of financial instruments and throughout varying market conditions.
The conference will also be live streamed globally, and we expect the audience to be up toan additional 3000 participants. This format was trialled during the pandemic years and wasa huge success, garnering a very dedicated and engaged group of attendees. We expect
the same this time around.

page 7Sponsor Opportunities
IFTA has a limited number of opportunities available for organisations wishing to sponsor
and/or exhibit at the conference. Sponsors exhibiting will gain three days of quality access toa cohort of the most successful traders and investors from Australia and around the world, at
a time when they are exclusively focussing on their investing business.
Whilst at the conference, attendees are always keen to see and discuss the latest products
and services from industry leading exhibitors. The delegates are all key consumers offinancial products and services and are almost exclusively the primary purchasing decision
maker in their enterprise.
Morning and afternoon breaks are taken in the exhibition space, where you will have directaccess to delegates. Exhibitor lunchtime sales presentations are also available to be held indedicated breakout rooms with AV available, during extended lunch breaks. These will beheavily promoted during the conference, and delegates encouraged to attend.
In the online live streaming of the conference, there will be ample opportunity to push yourbrand and message to the audience, topping and tailing each talk. There is also scope
to offer discounts, incentives, calls-to-action, and even deliver pre-canned video content
exclusively to the online audience.
This is a unique opportunity to create brand awareness and generate high quality
leads for your products or services.

2

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 8What is IFTA?

IFTA MEMBER SOCIETIESThe International Federation of Technical Analysts was incorporated in 1986 and is a global organisation of market analysis societies
and associations. IFTA is an international nonprofit organisation with member societies in 27 countries. The International Federationof Technical Analysts offers certification to technical analysts around the world.

IFTA Member Societies
AUSTRALIA—ATAA

Australian Technical Analysts Associationwww.ataa.asn.au

CANADA—CATA

Canadian Association for Technical Analysis

www.canadianata.ca

EGYPT—ESTA

Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts

www.estaegypt.org

FRANCE—AFATE

Association Française des Analystes Techniques

www.afate.com

GERMANY—VTAD

Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V.

www.vtad.de

HONG KONG—FTAA

Financial Technical Analysts Associationwww.ftaa.org.hk

INDIA—ATA

Association of Technical Analysts

www.tataindia.org

INDONESIA—AATI

Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia

www.aati.my.id

ITALY—SIAT

Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica

www.siat.org

JAPAN—NTAA

Nippon Technical Analysts Associationwww.ntaa.org.jp

LEBANON—LSTA

Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts

www.lstalebanon.com

MALAYSIA—MATA

Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts

www.malaysianchartist.com

NEW ZEALAND—STANZ

Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand

www.stanz.co.nz

PHILIPPINES–STAP

Society of Technical Analysts Philippineswww.technicalanalysts.org

SCANDINAVIA—STAF

Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening

www.staf.nu

SINGAPORE—TASS

Technical Analysts Society (Singapore)

www.tass.org.sg

SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA

Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa

www.tassa.org.za

SPAIN—IEATEC

Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos

www.ieatec.es

SWITZERLAND—SAMT

Swiss Association of Market Technicianswww.samt-org.ch

UNITED KINGDOM—STA

Society of Technical Analysts Ltd.

www.sta-uk.org

USA—TSAASF

Technical Securities Analysts Association

www.tsaasf.org

USA—AAPTA

American Association of Professional Technical Analysts

www.aapta.com

3

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 9SPONSORSHIPOPPORTUNITY

PLATINUMSPONSOR$US 20,000

GOLD SPONSOR$US 10,000

SILVER SPONSOR$US 5,000Up to 3 delegate
registrations

Up to 2 delegate
registrations

A single delegate
registration

Feature on conference live stream

Full screen logo,
message. Option to runvideo advert with CTA

Full screen logo andmessage

Advert in IFTA Journal / IFTA Update

Full page

Plenary breakfast session

1st choice

Day attendance at all conference sessions, including
all refreshment breaks, luncheons, and the Conference
DinnerYour promotional material included in the delegate
satchel kit for all delegatesYour logo shown in rotating slide-show prior toconference start and during breaks



-

-

Shared screen logo
and message

Shared screen logo-

Half page

Third of page

Quarter page-

2nd choice

-

-

-









(reasonable quantity)(reasonable quantity)(reasonable quantity)

Single sheet only











Including logo andsponsor message

Including logo andsponsor message

logo only

logo only

1st choice

2nd choice

3rd choice

-

-







-

-

Up to 3 Sessions

Up to 2 sessions

Just 1 session--

Before all plenary
presentations, and at
the Conference dinnerAt start of each day
and following the lunch
break, also at theConference DinnerAt start of each day
only

-

-

Marketing via IFTA website, including link backs

Announcement of sponsorship

FRIEND OF IFTA
$US 1,000

Including logo andsponsor message

Exhibition space available of 2.5 m2, one dressed(trestle) table with 2 chairs, power and hotel wi-fi access

Option to deliver 30 minute sales presentation inbreakout room with AV available during the lunchbreaks

BRONZESPONSOR$US 2,500

For further information or to discuss which package isbest for your organisation, please contact Alan Clement.

SPONSORSHIP SUMMARYSPONSORSHIP SUMMARY

E. alan.clement@ataa.asn.au
T. +61 437 192 279
4

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 10

Member News
Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts (ESTA)ESTA’s New Board of Directors
ESTA’s new board of directors is driving a new team witha new vision.

Emerging Concepts in the Debate That Never Dies:
Fundamental Analysis vs. Technical Analysis
ESTA event video highlights

The ESTA board’s key objectives include the following:

3.) Switching to digitization in all services provided by
the association.

 No need to overlap too many of the same kind ofindicators.
Panelists: Saleh Naser, CFTe; Mohamed Oweis, MBA, CPM;
Ron William, CFTe
Moderator: Randa Hamed, MBA, CFTe, CPM

The aim of the debate was to find or not find common
ground between fundamental and technical analysis. The
audience included ESTA members and industry leaders.
The two-hour debate started with a clear, simple definition and tools/assumptions regarding both fundamental
and technical analysis, then taking us to practical examples when recommendations between them diverged.
Also covered was how to act as an investment manager
and strategist.

Left to right: Hatem El Banna, Mohamed Younis, Randa Hamed,
Shady Bahaa, Haytham Abdelsamie Importance of risk management and discipline inmanaging investments, regardless of the kind ofanalysis used.
 Choosing the indicators that the analyst is confident
with and giving financial professionals clear signals.

1.) Restructuring the committees in line with the strategic plan of the new board.
2.) Developing and marketing the association's various
activities via social media.

Key insights:

The main argument on the fundamental analysis side isthat their interest is in value not price. The debate took us
to behavioural finance and behavioural technical analysis
as an emerging concept in the study of crowd psychology,
as well as the importance of the study of cycles, startingwith the macro picture, which was agreed to be key aspart of a top-down approach.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 11Society of Technical Analysts (STA) (United Kingdom)
The STA began autumn by celebrating International
Technical Analyst Day (ITAD) on 9 September. We asked
everyone to give a special acknowledgement to any technical analysts who have inspired or influenced them. It
was a chance to shine a spotlight on our favourite technical analysts for one day of the year!

The advantage of holding the course online is that students who live too far from London to attend the classes
will be able to benefit from live lectures (or access themafter the event). For dates, price, and full details, please
visit https://www.technicalanalysts.com/education/
sta-courses/#course1-details.

On 22 September, the STA and colleagues in the wider
financial sector will gather at London’s iconic National
Liberal Club to network at a celebratory drinks party,
preceded by our annual Awards Ceremony for the latest MSTAs.

Keep in touch with us via our online blog and follow us
on Twitter @STA_ORG, LinkedIn, or Instagram, or like our
Facebook page.

The STA Diploma Part 1 Course that starts on 12 Octoberwill be held online via Zoom webinar and will be fullyinteractive, with students being able to ask questions as
they would in a classroom. Any students unable to watch
live will be able to catch up with a recording following theevent and may email the STA office with any questions.
They may also post questions on the STA Student Forum,
which will be answered by course lecturers. Provision has
been made for candidates to sit the exam(s) in their own
personal space, using Zoom invigilation.
The sessions will be held from 6:00 pm–7:30 pm London
time. Closer to the start time, the students will be sent
login details for the webinar. The Diploma Part 1 examination will take place during the day on Monday 5
December 2022.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 12

Education Lounge

FSC Critical Roundtable on Gold and Metals
By Ron William, CFTe
The Foundation of Study of Cycles (FSC) hosted a critical roundtable on gold and metals
this past summer, featuring five expert speakers, and I moderated as part of the FSC
leadership team. This proved an engaging debate, following gold’s lacklustre performance so far this year—below consensus expectations, including my own, as featured
in a media interview earlier this year. Indeed, gold has continued to trade in a sideways,
volatile price range since early 2021, in what I’ve dubbed a “Bermuda triangle” patternthat should be traded with caution (Figure 1).

Figure 2. Resilience of Gold During Poor Returns

Our first speaker, Andy Pancholi, focused on gold’s technical, seasonal, and liquidity
trends. One of his big picture charts (Figure 3) highlights an important dynamic regression mean near $1,780, with +/- 1 STD at $2,260 and $1,630.

Figure 1. Bermuda Triangle Pattern

In stark contrast, gold still demonstrates resilience amid very poor returns for traditional asset classes (Figure 2), reinforcing the yellow metal’s safe-haven and portfolio
diversifier virtues.

Figure 3. Gold Dynamic Regression

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 13

Education Lounge

FSC Critical Roundtable on Gold and Metals continued

He warned about a potential inversion on seasonality data, which is typically positive
between July to September. COT liquidity data was also flagged as a potential contrarian indicator if selling pressure dropped below 200,000 contracts. A final insightwas based on the black swan implications of the 90-year cycle analogue to 1933 fornext year, which led to executive or 6102, requiring forms of value such as gold to bedelivered to the government. Pancholi asks if crypto could be next.

Bill Sarubbi, a veteran Halkin guest, discussed macro cycle forces, expecting gold tomove higher in the short term but remain choppy thereafter. He also believes that inflation is likely to increase further due to government spending and that the real estatemarket is topping, and he suggests that rising USD headwinds will continue, fuelled byongoing tail-risks (Figure 5).

Peter Eliades followed with ominous crisis analogues of 1842, 1932, and potentially
2022/23, which could spur a deflation crash (Figure 4). Eliades also shared proprietarytiming signals, based on Hurst, predicting a decline on Gold and Silver ETFs, with GLD
into 147.50–126.67 and SLV to 13.09–9.78.

Figure 5. Macro Cycle Forces

Figure 4. Crisis Analogues

Jake Bernstein used his science of trading approach, based on the S-T-F model of“Setup, Trigger, and Follow-through” looking at the broader metal complex. His top
cycles of interest are copper and palladium, with the latter exhibiting the largest net
long position in history. I cited the potential geopolitical substitution effect to platinumcited by media, which he believes could transpire on the market.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3
FSC Critical Roundtable on Gold and Metals continued

Lars von Thienen wrapped up, using the FSC Cycle software, which correctly signalled
an interim bottom in July and potential outperformance into year-end (Figure 6). He
reminded us that the U.S. yield curve inversion is a leading indicator for recession,
which could boost gold safe-haven demand.

page 14

Education Lounge
Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than
20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutionalfirms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global,
multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis,
driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market
technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book Mapping the Markets.
Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques inbehavioural-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation, and teaches
a regulatory-approved masterclass in Applied Behavioural Science with investment, privatebanks, and CFA societies.
Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), received
global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs
and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about
to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.

Figure 6. Gold Performance Into Year-End

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves on IFTA’s Education Committee and is development director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter,and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities; an active guest
speaker for the CFA, CAIA, and CISI; and a senior teacher at various colleges.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 15

Education LoungeWill King Dollar Lose Its Crown?
By Ron William, CFTe
The dollar DXY is unwinding from overbought extremes after hitting the strongest
level on record. Previously, the greenback hit multi-decade highs, yielding near 20%
from its 2021 lows. Immediate price support can be found at the rising 50-day trend
average, which is currently at 105.20. A sustained break under this tactical “line in thesand” would be the first time since March 2020, thereby unlocking further downside
scope. Additional risk levels include the 2020 pandemic peak at 103 to the long-term
200-day average near 98.70 (Figure 1).

Figure 2. Overcrowded Bullish SentimentMore instructively, the previous setup between 2018–2019 led to a significant contrarian downturn. USD mean-reversion risk is further confirmed by a near 40-year historic
overvaluation on a real effective exchange rate basis (Figure 3).

Figure 1. Risk Levels

Sentiment gauges imply a potential bull-squeeze capitulation ahead, with net longspeculative positions near multi-decade highs (Figure 2).

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 16

Education LoungeWill King Dollar Lose Its Crown? continued

However, from of a macro perspective, the key question facing investors now is how the
USD perform within an elevated volatility regime? Indeed, our composite cycle model
remains on high alert, while economic data and the yield curve imply a near 50% probability of recession within the next 6–12 months (Figure 5).

Figure 3. Near 40-Year Historic Overvaluation on a Real Effective Exchange Rate Basis

Valuation framework is more useful when it serves as a tipping point, which in thisexample may warn of a change in animal spirits, especially if it coincides with a confluence of diversified signals. In terms of market timing, our cycle models, based on
spectral analysis, predict a USD downturn into H2 2022 (Figure 4).

Figure 5. 50% Probability of Recession

Typically, such an environment would be bullish for the USD, as part of a counter-cyclicalplay. But how much of this risk is already priced into the USD? Behavioural tenets oftechnical analysis remind us that Mr. Market often acts as a lead indicator. Moreover,according to some experts, the “USD is likely pricing in one of the most anticipatedslowdowns in history”.
This serves as an important cautionary tone to the mainstream USD bull case. It isalso key to think of currencies as a game of relative performance. The U.S. economy
is weakening versus its G10 trading partners, notably on the Citigroup surprise index
and relative PMIs.

Figure 4. Cycles Predict USD Downturn Into H2 2022

Historically, this has been negative for USD, outside of recessions. Another related factor
is interest rate differentials. Market consensus has been focused on the Fed being the

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3
Will King Dollar Lose Its Crown? continued

most hawkish central bank. This assumption will face a critical test under global recessionary pressures, notably in the euro area. The market is pricing that interest rates inthe eurozone will be 200bps lower next year relative to the United States (Figure 6).

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Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than
20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutionalfirms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global,
multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis,
driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market
technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book Mapping the Markets.
Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques inbehavioural-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation, and teaches
a regulatory-approved masterclass in Applied Behavioural Science with investment, privatebanks, and CFA societies.
Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), received
global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs
and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about
to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.

Figure 6. U.S./Europe Rate Differentials

Scenario planning will remain key, particularly in terms opportunistic counter-USD
trades. Follow our perspective on EUR Parity, JPY catching falling knife, CHF last safehaven plays.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves on IFTA’s Education Committee and is development director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter,and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities; an active guest
speaker for the CFA, CAIA, and CISI; and a senior teacher at various colleges.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

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Technical Analysis Is at an Unprecedented Historical Point Thanks to
Artificial Intelligence
By Carlos Jaureguizar and Sandra Nieto
As Andrew Ng (director, Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab) said: “Just as electricity
transformed almost everything 100 years ago, today I actually have a hard time thinkingof an industry that I don’t think AI will transform in the next several years.”This statement is especially relevant in the case of the financial sector in general andtechnical analysis in particular.

What Are AI and ML, and How Can They Help the Technical andQuantitative Analyst?
 AI stands for artificial intelligence.
 ML stands for machine learning.
Clarification: Leaving aside some areas,1 when we talk about AI and ML, we usuallymean the same thing. But society prefers dazzling over realistic terms. Computers areneither intelligent nor able to learn, so there is no real AI or ML (at least not today).
AI-ML observes and finds patterns in data, but it is not intelligent learning.
Traditionally, statistics and mathematics used predetermined formulas programmedby human beings. For example, the area of a triangle is half the product of its base andheight, which is perfect for a linear and simple world, line Minecraft, but not for our realone. In ours, what is the formula that defines a head and shoulder pattern or the onethat defines the shape of a cat? Reality is much more complex and subject to multiple
factors, causes, and effects than explicitly programmed formulas can explain, which

led to a bottleneck in the mathematical, statistical, and analytical disciplines until now
that the new AI paradigm is revolutionizing everything.
In the last decade,2 there has been an explosion in the use and popularity of AI-ML toovercome this bottleneck. Thus, modern analytical and statistical disciplines based on
examples, rather than formulas, have emerged. These disciplines do not presume any
starting point or relationship among the data, but just observe, search, and find thosepatterns and formulas (what is often called learning).
AI-ML, instead of using formulas, “finds” them in an approach that is radically different
from what is used in most areas, except for a few, such as technical analysis. In fact,technical analysts are used to looking for patterns in the examples in an approach thatis so different from many disciplines that it has forced the field not only to a second
academic line but also to be considered a controversial discipline (just remember, as
an example, Malkiel’s quote, repeated ad nauseam, from “A Random Walk Down WallStreet,” where he described technical analysis as “an anathema to the academic world”).
The academic environment has always thought that the necessary rigour, although
improved, is still lacking. But this rigour and the solid metrics and reports are so fully
present in the ML models that it places it in the elite of science.

Technical Analysis Is at an Unprecedented Moment in History
Technical analysis is at an unprecedented time in its history for three reasons:

1 If we put aside symbolic AI, i.e., expert systems based on “if-then” type rules, the approach to AI is connectionist and entirely focused on machine learning.
2 Although ML has been around for half a century, only in the last decade has deep learning been able to capture the attention of the entire planet, due to the ability to access data and the improvement in computational capacity.

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Technical Analysis Is at an Unprecedented Historical Point Thanks to Artificial Intelligence continued
1. AI-ML represents a new paradigm that can take technical analysis to analytical levels
that have never been reached before.
2. Technical analysts are specially prepared to understand and use AI-ML better thanother analysts without changing their way of thinking and approaching problems.
3. The IA-ML reinforces the weakest point of the technical analysis in such a way (theacademic and formal) that can push it to a high-level scientific discipline.
And from our point of view, if it is essential to provide each sector with the capacity toincorporate AI-ML, technical analysis is not an exception.
To do it, we must have the will, the ability, and the knowledge. In other words, we mustbring together the academic and IT teams with business in order to get real and usefulsolutions. However, between the academic-computing areas and the business world,
there is a huge gap that, unfortunately, is getting bigger and bigger due to the dizzying forward speed. The academic world prioritizes statistical properties while businessprioritizes practical applications. Besides, when entering the AI-ML approaches, technical analysts find themself at a crossroads: on the one hand, there is the proliferationof repetitive and simple courses that do not allow a minimum base and that require atleast basic knowledge of Python, and on the other hand, other formations are complex
and specialized.

ML Is the New TA
From the Spanish association IEATEC, we have decided to work on incorporating AI-ML
into the field of technical analysis, and we have the support of large, experienced, andtalented institutions.
In this sense, we understand that we must create the big picture for the developmentof the new technical analysis paradigm based on IA-ML, being eminently practical,
although with a certain theoric basis to be able to move forward.

3

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So, let’s start by clarifying some concepts.
Data: IA-ML works with two types of data (examples):
1. Tabular or structured data: i.e., data that can be placed in rows and columns, as in
an Excel workbook. They can be analyzed both with classical (superficial) algorithms
and deep learning algorithms.
2. Not tabular, unstructured or alternative data:3 Mainly images, text, and audio. They cannot
be placed in rows and columns, and they need to be analyzed using deep learning.
Algorithms:
1. Classic4: They allow for dealing with tabular data and getting direct results. This
makes them highly interpretable.
2. Deep learning: They analyze all types of data but do not get direct results, butrather layer by layer, so that each layer is the input of the next. This means that theirinterpretability is low and they can be considered highly black boxes, somethingthat causes many headaches when facing regulation.
Although deep learning occupies most of the media due to its ability to create spectacular models, such as images and videos of people who do not exist or autonomous
driving, it is a complex area, and there is no need to master it in order to progress withtechnical analysis. Classical algorithms with tabular data are also astonishing.
Classic algorithms:
Although it is not intuitive, the hard work is not in the algorithms. Usually, we are goingto need algorithms that have already been developed by experts, and for this we only
need a few lines of code or even tools that facilitate their use without any code. The
hard work of the technical analyst who wants to use AI-ML will be to decide what data
to use and how to do it.5

Strictly speaking, alternative data are not necessarily synonymous with non-tabular data, but they usually are.

4 We call classic the tabulated data algorithms that emerged in the 1950s and 1960s, even though they include more recent algorithms such as isolation forest for anomaly detection.
5 We have previously said that AI-ML finds patterns in data rather than using predetermined formulas. If instead of using the formula for the area of a​​ triangle we gave the algorithm lots of triangles, it would extract its formulas itself. But
what happens if some data are in centimeters and other in millimeters? Or if the decimal separator is a point in some cases and a comma in others? The formulas extracted from dirty data are also dirty formulas. This is a point (EDA:
Exploratory Data Analysis) of extraordinary importance that requires more attention than it normally receives and that usually generates 90% of the conflicts in the models.

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Technical Analysis Is at an Unprecedented Historical Point Thanks to Artificial Intelligence continued

AI-ML needs examples, data, or features; it does not matter what we call them. Features
can be closing prices, technical indicators, the existence of patterns, volume, or evendata that we have previously obtained with other AI-ML models, such as the market
sentiment extracted from the news and social networks for a specific stock (between
1 and 5).
In addition, we can add—or not—labels to these features. In the case of labeling, weestablish a specific goal, such as if it has risen or fallen at the daily close. The label iswhat we want to predict, and when using them, we talk about supervised learning. If
we do not set any label, we just have data and we do not predict anything, but we cananalyze the structure of the data. Let’s take, for example, the S&P 500 components. We
group them in different clusters based on their similarity to technical indicator signals.6
But we can also create more sophisticated labels using the triple barrier (hold a position
until the first of three possible outcomes occurs: profit taking, stop loss, or maximum
number of bars) or the Trend-Scanning Method, as Lopez de Prado (2020) or Jaureguizar(2018) suggest.

Supervised Data With a Target (Supervised Learning)
For example, we tabulate four features: RSI, ADX, volatility, and if a bullish candlestick
pattern has appeared or not (1/0). That is, four columns. Depending on what we wantto predict, we will use numeric labels or classes.

Education Lounge

Unlabeled Data (Unsupervised Learning)
Using the example with four features (RSI, ADX, volatility, and candlestick pattern), we
do not add any label to predict, so this is what we can do: Clustering: As there are no labels, these algorithms look for patterns in the data andcreate similar groups according to the features we are using. Instead of stating thenumber of possibilities (such as bullish or bearish), we let the algorithm group theassets, e.g., five groups of equities. We may find a particularly interesting and low-risk
group. Here we find, among other algorithms, K-means and DBscan.
 Dimensionality reduction: Let’s suppose that we use 12 technical indicators, and we
manually look at them. Too many charts, right? Let’s also suppose that we can reduce
those 12 indicators to just a hybrid one, keeping 90% of the information. Reducing
the dimension (number of features) from 12 to 1 would help the technical analyst
significantly. This is usually done with the PCA algorithm.
 Anomaly detection: Based on clustering or, more recently, on isolation forests.
Some real examples:
1. Reduce the number of indicators by creating hybrids with similar information,
facilitating their visual inspection.

 Regression algorithms: We try to predict the label, an outcome (such as the stock’s
closing price), its daily volatility, or how many days the trend will need before it turns.

2. Decision trees that optimize (even for each asset) the decision process followed by
the analyst (e.g., checking indicators, patterns, volume).

 Classification algorithms: we predict a label in the form of finite possibilities (classes).
For example, we can predict whether it is more likely to move in a bullish or bearish
way, whether it will generate a reversal pattern or not, or whether it should be sold or
held. Among these algorithms, we find decision trees, K-neighbours, SVM, Random
Forests, or the detection of anomalies by classifying them as abnormal or normal
trades.

3. Clustering: grouping the technical analyst universe of assets according to features,
like technical indicators.
4. Clustering: Grouping of the universe of assets to carry out market-neutral pairs
trading strategies.

6 In addition to supervised and unsupervised learning, there is self-supervised, semi-supervised, and reinforcement learning, with variants such as evolutionary, active, and federated learning. None of this needs to be addressed at this point.

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Technical Analysis Is at an Unprecedented Historical Point Thanks to Artificial Intelligence continued

5. Classifiers: Through different combinations of features, the algorithm predicts whether
the next 5% movement will be upwards or downwards.
6. And a long etcetera.

Conclusion
As we have seen, IA-ML represents a new paradigm of data analysis in almost all scientific areas, being especially relevant in the field of technical analysis, which is at an
unprecedented historical point where we have two options: move forward alone or doit as an international collective. Our proposal from IEATEC is to take the second one.
For any questions, comments, or suggestions please contact the authors at
carlos.jaureguizar@robexia.com and sandra.nieto@robexia.com.

Education Lounge
Carlos Jaureguízar holds a Ph.D. in applied economics, cum laude, andhas authored several books and academic articles. He has 25 years ofexperience in the financial sector, and he is specialized in quantitative
analysis using AI. He also has extensive teaching experience and has
actively participated in forums and conferences.

Currently, he is the CEO of Robexia, an AI, risk, and quantitative laboratory for thefinancial sector. He is the president of the institutional association IDIASEF, a Spanish
institute for the development of artificial intelligence in the financial and insurance sector with participation of banks and regulators.
As an entrepreneur, as well as founder of Noesis, Finavid, and Robexia, Carlos is afounding partner of Contact, Strategy and Communication and very active in the educational sector as a founding partner of several schools, such as Aquinas American
School and Atlas American School, both in Spain.
Sandra Nieto is the third president of IEATEC and is COO at Robexia.
Sandra has a degree in mass communication and specialized in marketing
and advertising. She’s CESGA certified and a Master in Artificial Intelligenceby the IIA Institute. Working for the financial sector, she developed aninterest in technical analysis which allowed her to participate on several
published articles dedicated to the subject. Sandra started participatingin IEATEC’s Artificial Intelligence Committee, which led her to be elected as the current
president of IEATEC.

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Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick Reversal
Patterns
By Kim-Kwong Yeung
Meaningful learning of related candlestick patterns can be enhanced through understanding their rankings in the relative strength scale.

Introduction
Candlestick pattern analysis has been a popular tool in technical analysis for many years.
An introductory book on the subject generally covers 15 to 25 patterns. It may not be too
difficult for an average student to learn these patterns by heart. More advanced books,
however, would cover more than 50 patterns, many of which are related to each otherin some aspects. Unfortunately, the relationships among these patterns are seldom
explained clearly. As a result, students are left puzzled and have to learn them mostly
by rote, resulting the following highly unfavourable learning outcomes:
1. Memorizing such a large number of seemingly unrelated patterns is a difficult task
in itself, let alone correctly applying them in real-life situations.
2. Learning is not meaningful and enjoyable. Meaningful learning should enhance
understanding, active thinking, integration of knowledge, development of analysis
skills, and problem-solving.
Although many books have been written on candlestick charting since 2000, it is surprising that there is not a chapter specifically discussing the important topic of the relative
strengths of candlestick patterns. There may be some brief comments, usually lessthan half a page, mostly comparing the strengths of two related candlestick patterns.
But no one has ever attempted to make a systematic comparison of the strengths of
all important candlestick patterns of the same category. Meaningful learning of these
related patterns can be enhanced by understanding their relative strengths. This article
tries to start the discussion, and we will confine our analysis to an important category—
2-candlestick reversal patterns.

The term “strength” of a candlestick pattern is seldom mentioned in most books, but
the underlying concept is frequently discussed. The terms “strong” and “weak” patterns are much more common. Some books prefer the term “power” or “force”. It is
not a clearly defined concept and may be simply understood as its ability to influence
price in the near future.
“Relative strength” means the strengths of two or more candlestick patterns relative
to each other. It can be described qualitatively or quantitatively. The aim of this essay
is to determine the relative strengths of all important 2-candlestick bottom reversal
patterns qualitatively and then set up a relative strength scale in which these patterns
are arranged according to their relative strengths in decreasing order.
Theoretically, the best way to determine the relative strengths of candlestick patterns
is by scientific investigation (i.e., empirical study). In practice, however, it is very difficult
to achieve because price is affected by a lot of factors, and it is practically impossible
to control them. In fact, no empirical studies so far have ever attempted to do this.
Since we cannot rely on previous empirical studies, we have to use the second bestalternative. In this essay, I will attempt to achieve this by deducing the relative strengths
logically from a simple rule. So, it may be called logical or theoretical relative strength
to distinguish it from empirical relative strength.

Rule of Determination of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick
Reversal Patterns
Although there have been no systematic discussions on the relative strengths of candlestick patterns, some books indeed have brief comments. One of the most frequently
mentioned is the strength of Dark-cloud Cover relative to Engulfing (Figure 1). For
example, Nison states:

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3
Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick Reversal Patterns continued

The greater the penetration of the black real body’s close [of a dark-cloud cover]
into the prior white real body, the greater the chance for a top. (If the black real
body covers the prior day’s entire white body, it would be a bearish Engulfing pattern rather than a dark-cloud cover.) Think of the dark-cloud cover as a partial solar
eclipse blocking out part of the sun (that is, covers only part of the prior white body).
The bearish Engulfing pattern can be viewed as a total solar eclipse blocking out
the entire sun (that is, it covers the entire white body). A bearish Engulfing pattern,consequently, can be a more meaningful top reversal.1

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From the above brief comments and other similar discussions by Nison and others3, we
can generalize the following rule of determination of the relative strengths of 2-candlestick top reversal patterns:
The lower the close of the second candle, the greater the relative strength of thepattern.
The basic idea underlying the above rule for top reversal patterns can be logicallyapplied to bottom reversal patterns. For example, Piercing is just the opposite of Darkcloud Cover, and it is generally agreed that Engulfing is stronger than Piercing because
the close of its second candle is higher than that of the latter (Figure 3).

Figure 1. The Strength of Dark-Cloud Cover Relative to Engulfing

Nison expresses the same idea in the comparison of Counterattack line with Dark-cloud
Cover (Figure 2).
The bearish counterattack, like the dark-cloud cover, should ideally open above
the prior day’s high. Unlike the dark-cloud cover, though, the close does not go
into the prior day’s white candle. Thus, the dark-cloud cover sends a stronger top
reversal signal than does the bearish counterattack line.2

Figure 2. The Strength of Counterattack Line Relative to Dark-Cloud Cover

Figure 3. The Strength of Piercing Relative to Engulfing

We can therefore obtain the following rule of determination of the relative strengths of
2-candlestick bottom reversal patterns:
The higher the close of the second candle, the greater the relative strength of thepattern.
Nison gives us two more examples. The first example is Counterattack line relative to
Piercing (Figure 4):
The bullish counterattack is comparable to the bullish piercing line. If you remember, the piercing line has the same two candle configuration as that shown for thebullish counterattack pattern. The main difference is that the bullish counterattack
line does not move into the prior session’s white real body. It just gets back to the

1 Nison, Steve [2001], Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second edition, p.51.
2 Ibid p.110.
3 Morris, Gregory L. [2006], Candlestick Charting Explained, Third edition; Biglow, Stephen W. [2011], Profitable Candlestick Trading, Second edition; Bulkowski, Thomas N [2008], Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts; Thomsett, Michael C. [2018],
Candlestick Charting: Profiting from Effective Stock Chart Analysis; Lambert, Clive [2009]; Candlestick Charts: An Introduction to Using Candlestick Charts.

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Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick Reversal Patterns continued

Education Lounge

prior session’s close. The piercing pattern’s second line pushes well into the black
real body. Consequently, the piercing pattern is a more significant bottom reversal
than is this bullish counterattack line.4

Nison thinks that only Piercing is strong enough to be regarded as a reversing pattern,
while the other three patterns are too weak and can only be classified as continuation
patterns.
Morning Star is classified as a reversal pattern in most books. The difference between
On-neck and Morning Star is its lack of the third candle that rises deeply into the bodyof the first candle (Figure 6). This candle may be regarded as a confirming signal, which
can increase the relative strength of the whole pattern. Without a confirming candle, thereversal power of On-neck is very weak. Conversely, with a confirming candle, Morning
Star is strong enough to be regarded as a reversal pattern. The same reasoning canalso be applied to In-neck and Thrusting.

Figure 4. The Strength of Counterattack Line Relative to Piercing

The second example involves four patterns, viz. On-neck, In-neck and Thrusting relative
to Piercing (Figure 5). Nison explains that:[On-neck, in-neck and thrusting] have the same basic formation as the piercing
pattern. The difference among them is in the degree of penetration by the whitecandle into the black candle’s real body. The on-neck pattern’s white candle (usuallya small one) closes near the low of the previous session. The in-neck pattern’s whitecandle closes slightly into the prior real body (it should also be a small white candle).
The thrusting pattern should be a longer white candle that is stronger than the inneck pattern, but still does not close above the middle of the prior black real body.
It’s not important to remember the individual patterns. Instead, just remember theconcept that the white candle should push more than halfway into the black candle’s
real body to send out a more potent bottom reversal signal.5

Figure 6. Comparison of On-neck and Morning Star

Setting Up the Relative Strength Scale
In this section, we will attempt to determine systematically the relative strengths of
all important reversal patterns and then set up the relative strength scale. Since top
reversal patterns are logically just the reverse of bottom reversal patterns, we will limit
our analysis to bottom reversal patterns to save time and space.
Up until now, we have discussed the relative strengths of three groups of bottom reversal patterns and obtained the following generally accepted results: (>: stronger than)Figure 5. The Strength of On-neck, In-neck, and Thrusting Relative to Piercing
4 Nison, Steve [2001], Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second edition, p.109.
5 Ibid p.55.

1. Engulfing > Piercing
2. Piercing > Counterattack Line
3. Piercing > Thrusting > In-neck > On-neck

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3
Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick Reversal Patterns continued

The above results can be combined as follows:
1. Engulfing > Piercing > Counterattack Line
2. Engulfing > Piercing > Thrusting > In-neck > On-neckpage 25

Education Lounge
called Kicking and Above the Stomach. Both close above the open of the first candle,
so their relative strengths are comparable to Engulfing but greater than the other fivepatterns (Figure 8).

To determine the relative strengths of these six patterns as a whole, we have to apply
the rule described in the previous section to compare Counterattack line with Thrusting,In-neck, and On-neck. Based on Nison’s descriptions quoted in the previous section, it
is clear that the close of Counterattack line is lower than Thrusting, slightly lower thanIn-neck, and higher than On-neck (Figure 7).

Figure 8: The Strength of Kicking and Above the Stomach Relative to Engulfing

Figure 7. The Strength of Counterattack Line Relative to On-neck, In-neck, and Thrusting

We can therefore conclude that the relative strength rankings of these six patterns are
as follows: (s>: slightly stronger than)Engulfing > Piercing > Thrusting > In-neck s> Counterattack Line > On-neckReversal Patterns

Continuation Patterns

Thrusting is usually classified as a continuation pattern. Since the relative strength ofThrusting is greater than Counterattack, the latter should be classified as a continuation pattern. From the viewpoint of logical analysis, it is puzzling that Counterattack isgenerally classified as a reversal pattern.
We proceed to determine the relative strengths of other important patterns. There
are two patterns that are not described by Nixon but appear in some books. They are
6 Ibid p.82.

Although the close of Kicking is usually higher than Above the Stomach, which in turnis usually higher than Engulfing, there is no reason that it cannot be otherwise. In fact,
the second candle of Engulfing is sometimes so long that it is higher than Kicking.
Since their relative strengths cannot be pre-determined, we may conclude that they
have the same ranking.
Finally, we attempt to determine the relative strength of Harami. Nison states that:
The bearish harami displays a disparity about the market’s health. Specifically, after
a bull move, the long white real body’s vitality is followed by the small real body’s
uncertainty. Additionally, the small real body opening and closing within the prior
open-close range is another indication that the bulls’ upward drive has weakened.
Thus, a trend reversal is possible. During a bear move, the selling force reflectedby a long black real body is followed by the second day’s vacillation. This could
portend a trend reversal since the second day’s small real body is an alert that thebears’ power has diminished.6
Note that a trend reversal is possible only. In fact, most experts think that the probabilityof successful reversal is not high, so Harami is generally regarded as a weak reversal
pattern. A third confirmation candle or other confirmation signal is usually required forits validly. I think that under normal circumstances, it is better for Harami to be classified

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Logical Analysis of the Relative Strengths of 2-Candlestick Reversal Patterns continued

as a 3-candlestick reversal pattern, similar to Morning Star. It may be regarded as a2-candlestick reversal pattern only when it can be shown to be strong (i.e., the closeof its second candle is quite near the open of the first candle) (Figure 9).

and should be regarded as a continuation pattern. (Figure 10)

Figure 10: Comparison of Harami With Piercing and Thrusting
Figure 9: Strong and Weak Harami

A Harami may be strong or weak, depending on the position of the second candle.
Biglow is one of the few experts who put forward this idea. He states that “the location and size of the second candle will influence the magnitude of the reversal.”7 Morespecifically, “the higher the white candle closes up on the black candle, the more convincing the signal that a reversal has occurred despite the size of the white candle.”8
Biglow further argues that:
The Harami can be used as a fairly efficient barometer. The size and the level thatit closes in the previous day’s body give an accurate projection of how fast or slow
the reversal will occur …. [At the top of an up-trend], a Harami forms about onequarter down into the previous day’s long white body. The long white body was
the confirmation that the trend had turned. But the location of the Harami implies
that there will be two to four days of consolidation. A Harami forming more thanhalfway down that candle would show consolidation of five to seven days before
the trend moved up. A Harami forming at the lower end of the white body would
immediately demonstrate that the bulls did not take over. A Harami forming at the
top of a white candle should imply a day or two of consolidation.9
Undoubtedly, all these statements are just applications of the rule put forward in theprevious section. Strong Harami is comparable to Piercing and should therefore be
regarded as a reversal pattern. Conversely, Weak Harami is comparable to Thrusting
7 Biglow, Stephen W. [2011], Profitable Candlestick Trading, Second edition, p.48.
8 Ibid p.49.
9 Ibid p.152-153.

Lastly, the relative strength scale may be set up as follows:
Kicking / Above the Stomach / Engulfing > Strong Harami / Piercing >Reversal Patterns
Weak Harami / Thrusting > In-neck s> Counterattack Line > On-neckContinuation Patterns

Kim-Kwong Yeung has been an independent investor for 20 years. He isinterested in studying the traditional methods of technical analysis, extracting and enriching their valuable elements that can benefit investors.

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

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Congratulations New CFTes!

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates

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15 Mar 2023

15 Oct 2023

(Session 1) Register at https://ifta.org/application-forms/mfta-application-session1/(Session 2) Register at https://ifta.org/application-forms/mfta-application-session-2/

31 July 2023

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 282022 IFTA Board of Directors Nominations(Term October 2022–October 2025)
Nominations were received for seven open positions
on the IFTA board of directors. Elections will be held in
Melbourne at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 6
October 2022.
If you would like to contact any of the candidates, pleaseemail the IFTA staff at admin@ifta.org, and we will be glad
to facilitate your communication.

Alessandro Greppi, Ph.D.
Nominated by: SIAT (Italy)
Current Board Member: No

Alessandro Greppi, Ph.D., is an equity andfunds portfolio manager at Zurich Insurance
Company Ltd., a certified SIAT technical analyst, and a lecturer. He holds a Ph.D. in economics andmanagement of technology; a master’s degree in economics, finance, and international integration; and a bachelor’s
degree in political science and international relations.

Clive Lambert, MSTA, MCSI, CFTe
Nominated by: STA (United Kingdom)
Current Board Member: Yes

Clive Lambert, MSTA, MCSI, CFTe, is thefounder of and continues to be the main
contributor for FuturesTechs in the United
Kingdom. He has been involved in the futures market for25+ years as a broker and trader and has been performing
technical analysis for over 15 years.
Clive is a board member of the UK Society of TechnicalAnalysts (STA). He has spoken at several of the STA’s
monthly meetings over the years and has also been enlisted

as a regular lecturer on the Society’s annual Diploma Course,
covering a wide range of subjects. He was on the STA board
between 2003 and 2011 and rejoined in 2015. Clive hastaught technical analysis around the world, including the
CME Group and the London Stock Exchange among his
clients in this respect. He has had articles published in various technical analysis publications, is regularly quoted in theleading news wires, has appeared regularly on CNBC, andnow is seen on Core Finance weekly (usually on Fridays).
Omnibus on La7.

Saleh Nasser, CMT, CFTe
Nominated by: ESTA (Egypt)Current Board Member: No

Saleh Nasser, CMT, CFTe, is currently thechief technical strategist of Pioneers Holding
and is currently heading the investment committee of the Asset Management Company.
Prior to joining Pioneers, Saleh was the executive director
and the chief technical strategist of Pharos Holding from2009 until May 2017. Saleh was also the chief technicalstrategist of CIBC from 2001 until 2009, and he was amember of the CIBC investment committee
Saleh completed his CMT designation from the Market
Technicians Association (MTA) in 2001. He was awarded
an honorary CFTe designation from IFTA because of his
contributions to the Education Committee. Saleh is theoriginator of the Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts’
CETA Professional Program, which is one of three international degrees that are accredited by IFTA as equivalent
to the CFTe.

Karin Roller, CFTe

Nominated by: VTAD (Germany)
Current Board Member: No

Karin Roller, CFTe, is an independent trader
and trader coach. She holds the German
Stock Broker license and worked at the stock
exchange in Stuttgart at the Trading Surveillance. She isa board member of the German Association of TechnicalAnalysts (www.vtad.de) and is in charge of the chapter in
Stuttgart. Karin also has authored several books about
technical analysis, including Ichimoku Trading, Set Goals
with Fibonacci and the German Trading für Dummies. Karinwrites stock analysis and articles for leading financial newspapers. She runs seminars and workshops on technicalanalysis for private and institutional Investors, including
preparing seminars for the CFTe exams. Karin holds a
degree in biology from the University Hohenheim/Stuttgart.

Eddie Tofpik

Nominated by: STA (UK)
Current Board Member: No

Eddie Tofpik started out as a warrants clerk
for London Metals Exchange (LME) trader
Transworld Metals in 1980. In 1984 he was originally introduced by colleagues and friends to technical analysis and has been an avid practitioner ever since. Eddie is amember of the Society of Technical Analysts in the UK and anaffiliate of the Market Technicians Association in the UnitedStates. He’s also a member of ACI-UK (the FX dealers association) and the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.
In 1991, he joined Esprit Brokers Limited (precursor to
ADMISI) to develop FX and LME business and started what
is now the 24-hour FX desk of ADMISI. This year, after 26

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

successful years as head of FX, he moved to start a newrole at ADMISI as head of technical analysis and seniormarkets analyst. At ADMISI, Eddie produces and publishes‘Eddie’s Crayons…’, a monthly technical analysis review of
FX and selected commodity futures markets along withother daily and weekly technical analysis. Additionally,
he’s a regular commentator on FX and has spoken at many
international conferences and seminars.

Indarwijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA
Nominated by: AATI (Indonesia)
Current Board Member: Yes

Indrawijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA, is an asset
manager for private clients and companies
with Migliore Investment Indonesia as well as
an independent trade coach. He often collaborates withIFTA members to share market outlooks and trading knowledge. As a trader and analyst, he researches how to simplify WD Gann’s theory to be more applicative. Indrawijaya
was a speaker at the 2020 IFTA Annual Conference.
Indrawijaya is the treasurer of AATI (Asosiasi Analis
Teknikal Indonesia). He is also a speaker on market andstock technical analysis on several TV programs and at various seminars and workshops related to technical analysis
applications for investors and traders.

page 29

Giovanni Trombetta

Nominated by: SIAT (Italy)
Current Board Member: Yes

Giovanni Trombetta is the head of researchand development on the Gandalf Project. He
is an electronic engineer with experience asa radio access network engineer. He is an expert in radiant systems and artificial intelligence algorithms and is a
professional trading systems developer, a quant trader,and a trainer. Giovanni has many years of programming
experience with several languages and trading platforms
and uses his knowledge in the field of genetic algorithms
and neural networks to create automatic trading systems
and financial models.

Balance professional development and yourpersonal life with the STA Home Study Course©
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Don’t Get Caught Inside
When You Can Be
Hanging Five
OK, so truth be told, we had a fairly heated discussion at Elliott
Wave International over the direction of this ad. Do we gostraight serious, like just about every other ad? Or do we show
our playful side, in the hope that you won’t just skip past it likeall those other ads?
Because on the one hand, the Certified Elliott Wave Analyst(CEWA) designation is dead serious. The CEWA program is
the standard for Elliott wave analysts. But at the same time, theWave Principle is gnarly, dude – why surf the chop with the
kooks when you could be rippin' the best waves with the locals.
And so, in an exclusive arrangement with our buds at IFTA,
EWI now offers the Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA)
designation for the coolest dudes: Elliott wave pros, analysts
and traders.
Your CEWA designation lets everyone know that you're alegend in the practical application of the Elliott Wave Principle,
one of the most recognized forms of technical analysis. With
CEWA you can finally paddle out away from the crowds andfind some open water where you can shoot the curl.
Show your CEWA designation to potential employers andprospective clients, so they know YOU know where the bombs-- and the grey fins -- lurk.

Get Started. Visit www.elliottwave.com/wave/GetCertified“Is it just me, or has Wilson gained someconfidence since he became a CEWA?”IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 32

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly
meetings are free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are
not required. Visitors are welcome, first visit free.

ATAA

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://ataa.asn.au/

Monthly Meets monthly on second Tuesday and fourth Thursday.

CATA

VariesVia Zoom

8:00 PMhttps://canadianata.ca/
Eastern Time
Zone

Monthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of
topics (e.g., sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies,
money management, psychology).

STANZ

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usuallyon the second Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

STA

VariesChartered Accountants Hall
1 Moorgate Place,
LondonVarieshttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2022
Oct

Nov

Dec

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

6

IFTA Annual General Meeting(Held at IFTA's 35th Annual Conference in Melbourne)

IFTA

NA

Melbourne, AU

4:00 PM local admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

7–9

IFTA 35th Annual Conference - Maximising Opportunity in an
Uncertain World (Hosted by ATAA, Melbourne, AU)

ATAA

VariesMelbourne, AU

Variesadmin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Session 1 paper deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

20

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

Zoom

TBA

20

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 2

STA

NA

Zoom

TBA

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/sta-courses/#course2details

1

IFTA 2023 Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/
publicatons/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

5

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 1

STA

NA

Zoom

6:00
PM–7:30 PM
BST

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/sta-courses/#course1details

2023
Jan

No events scheduled for January at this timeContinued on page 14

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 33

Calendar continued

2023
Feb

Mar

April

May

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-March release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Alternative Path, Session 1 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

6

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 1

STA

NA

Zoom

6:00
PM–7:30 PM
BST

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/sta-courses/#course1details

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Session 2 paper deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

20

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 2

STA (UK)

NA

OnlineAll day

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

20

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II - registration
opens for October examination through IFTA website.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

June
July

AugustSept

No events scheduled for June at this time3

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 1

STA

NA

Zoom

6:00
PM–7:30 PM
BST

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
education/sta-courses/#course1details

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path, Session
2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-September
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

No events scheduled for September at this time

IFTAUPDATE 2020 Volume 29 Issue 3

page 34

IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors

CANADA—CATA* Canadian Association for Technical Analysis www.canadianata.ca

President Wieland Arlt, CFTe (VTAD)
wieland.arlt@ifta.org

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.tataindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia www.aati.my.id
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
PHILIPPINES–STAP* Society of Technical Analysts Philippines www.technicalanalysts.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org

USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com*Developing Society

IFTA Update Schedule

The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
December Issue

All content due November 15

March Issue

All content due February 15

June Issue

All content due May 15

September Issue

All content due August 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

Treasurer Warren Murnane, Dip TA, CFTe, ST & I (Wealth Within) (ATAA)
warren.murnane@ataa.asn.au
Secretary and Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Vice President Middle East and Africa Ayman A. Waked, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
aymanwaked@yahoo.com
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Vice President The Americas and Webinar and Workshop Director Bruce Fraser (TSAASF, AAPTA)
rdwyckoff@gmail.com
Examination Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe, (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.deMarketing Director Constance Brown, MFTA, CFTe
support@aeroinvest.com
Website Director Tamer Gamal, CFTe (ESTA)
tgamal@gmail.com
Conference Director Alan Clement, CFTe (ATAA)
alan.clement@ataa.asn.au
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Director Giovanni Trombetta, CFTA, Electronic Engineer (SIAT)
giovanni.trombetta@gandalfproject.com
Director Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA (NTAA)
higashino3z@gmail.com
Director Indarwijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA (AATI)
indra_senna@gmail.com

Staff

Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Vice President, Director of Marketing and Creative Services Jennifer Olivares, CDMP, PCM
Production Manager Tiffany WardManaging Editor Lynne Agoston
Director of Accounting Services Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org