IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

2013年夏号 目次
2013 Volume 20 Issue 2
１ IFTA会長からIFTA会員へのIN メッセージ
THIS ISSUE
２1 President’s
第26回IFTA大会
Report to Colleagues
５ 祝thCFTeの新合格者
2 26 Annual IFTA Conference
５ 祝 MFTAの新合格者
5 Congratulations New CFTes!
（中村貴司氏）New MFTA!
６5 Congratulations
イベント・カレンダー
6
Calendar
At-A-Glance
８ IFTA理事ノミネーション
Timing９9 Market
教育ラウンジマーケット・
タイミング
9 Education
Lounge11
IFTA加盟協会ニュース
11 Member
News
13
資格試験の日程
13 Savethe Dates!
15
討論会「これからの数年はど
15 How Will the Next Few Years be
う特徴づけられるか？デフレ？
Characterized?
Inflation, Deflation, or
Both?
Featuring Robert Prechter and
インフレ？両方？」討論者：
Martin Pring, moderated by Ron William
ロバート・プレクター氏、
19 TheIFTA and the Emirates Securities
マーティン・プリン氏。
and Commodities Authority (ESCA)
ﾓﾃﾞﾚｰﾀｰ：ロン・ウイリアム氏
Sign
Memorandum of Understanding
19
IFTA、ESCA（アラブ首長国
22 IFTA Member Societies
連邦 証券商品監督局）覚書締結
20 IFTA加盟協会、IFTA理事
IFTA
Update次号：2013年秋
Next
issue September 2013
原稿締切:
Submission Deadlines
教育関係：8月15日、Education articles: August 15—
宛先：newsletter@ifta.org
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
その他：9月１日、All other content: September 1—
宛先：admin@ifta.org
send submissions
to admin@ifta.org『IFTA
UPDATE』に掲載すれば、世界中の6,950人以上のIFTA会員にメッセージを届ける
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach more
ことができます。詳細については、
than 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/
をご覧ください。

page 1

IFTA会報a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

President’s Report to Colleagues

ロルフ・ウェツァー会長からIFTA会員へのメッセージ
会員の皆様へDear IFTA Colleagues,
Historically, it has not always been easy to
be a Technical Analyst. When I joined thefinancial industry twenty years ago, theuse of computers was fairly limited andalmost every investment process was fundamental. Although the majority of people
were looking at charts, nobody daredto commit to the discipline. Technicalanalysis was banned from the investment
management and was condemned byacademia, which at that time waved theirflag called “Efficient Market Theory.” Since
then, times have changed; we use computers every day, we can confess to technicalanalysis and yes, even the academic community has recovered their freak flag.
Have you seen the paper from Smith,Faugère and Wang (2013) titled Headand Shoulders Above the Rest? The
Performance of Institution Portfolio
Managers who Use Technical Analysis?
If not, you should take a look (http://ssrn.
com/abstract=2202060). This study takes

a novel approach to testing the efficacyof technical analysis. They rely on institutional portfolio managers’ statements
about how intensely they use technicalanalysis, with samples of more than 10,000
portfolios. Their findings are that funds
using technical analysis appear to haveprovided a meaningful advantage to theirinvestors, albeit in an unexpected way.
I would encourage you to attend the 26th
IFTA Annual Conference, EVOLUTION
TO MASTERY: Technical Analysis, Systems
and Execution, hosted by the Technical
Securities Analysts Association of San
Francisco ( TSA ASF ), Oc tober 9–11,
2013. Our Conference Director, Roman
Bogomazov, and his team have worked
very hard to organize an amazing program, with high-quality speakers and many
opportunities to meet business partners
and friends. This Conference is one ofthose rare occasions to meet your peersfrom around the globe.

IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc.
(www.ifta.org), a not-for-profit professionalorganization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

IFTA 2013

Annual General Meeting
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
16:00 to 17:30 (4:00pm – 5:30pm)
InterContinental Mark
Hopkins San Francisco

One Nob Hill
San Francisco, CA USA
All IFTA colleagues are invited andencouraged to attend. For further
information, contact the IFTA staff at
admin@ifta.org

Apart from the Conference, what has
been happening in IFTA-land? On March
27th, our Vice President of the Middle
East and Africa, Mohamed Ashraf (ESTA,
Egypt) and I signed an agreement for amutual cooperation on the preparation of[continued on page 5]

26th Annual IFTA Conference
9-11 October 2013

InterContinental Mark Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

 Bloomberg international pre-conference event Technical walkabout lead-off session
 Sessions on trending techniques; innovations in technical analysis; and a live trading session
 Workshops with industry leaders on system building; and the ‘mental landscape’ Panels: industry panel; veteran technical analysts; and market wizards
 Power hours featuring six speakers per session
 AAPTA post-conference brainstorming session
 Social events: opening reception, gala dinner, wine tasting, Napa Valley tour, partner’s program

Early Registation Discounts End July 31, 2013.
Register Now and Saveconference.ifta.org/2013

26th Annual IFTA Conference continued

第26回IFTA大会

Dear Friends of IFTA,EVOLUTION TO MASTERY: TechnicalAnalysis, Systems and Execution, the 26th
annual IFTA Conference, will take placein San Francisco, October 9-11 of thisyear. The IFTA Conference is a uniqueglobal event geared toward professionally employed Technical Analysts, FundManagers, Asset Allocators, Financial
Planners, educators and also highly experienced private financial Market Traders/
Investors.
IFTA and the local IFTA Society, Technical
Security Analysts Association of San
Francisco (TSASSF) have assembled a stellar portfolio of more than 30 presenterswith the purpose of further elevating theskills of the attendees toward the goal of“Mastery.“ You will hear presentations
from renowned professional practitioners of technical analysis from around theglobe with an emphasis on the development of mastery skills of technical systems
and execution.
The special Pre-Conference Seminar will
be hosted on Tuesday, October 8 th at
Bloomberg’s state-of-the-art west coast
headquarters located at Pier 3 in downtown San Francisco. This event is free toall Conference attendees and includes
a catered lunch. The Saturday, October
12th Post-Conference event will start witha brainstorming session by celebrated
American Association of Professional
Technical Analysts (AAPTA) members.

This session is unique in that there is no
set agenda or speakers. AAPTA members
and attendees come and participate in afree format, “open microphone,” casualpresentation/discussion session.
San Francisco is one of the world’s mostbeloved cities. With its rich culture andstunning scenery, it is no wonder somany visitors have left their hearts in San
Francisco. While it may not be the biggest city in the U.S., it’s certainly one ofits most cosmopolitan. On top of that,
the City by the Bay is the ‘Golden Gate’
to one of the most exciting, diverse andinnovative regions anywhere in the world.
San Francisco is brimming with activities!
You can explore museums, unique neighborhoods and theatres, all while taking inspectacular vistas.

Surrounded on three sides by ocean andbay, the San Francisco weather is oneof the most difficult to forecast and canchange dramatically from neighborhood toneighborhood. October in San Francisco is
one of the best times of year, with daytime
temperatures averaging around 70°F/21°C
and evening temperatures averaging
around 54°F/12°C.
The magnificent and historicInterContinental Mark Hopkins Hotel willbe the San Francisco home for this uniqueConference. With a local legacy andgrand architectural character that make it
one of the most celebrated luxury hotels
in San Francisco, the InterContinental
Mark Hopkins is a landmark Nob Hill destination with breathtaking views of the
Bay Area. The IMH Hotel is situated in26th Annual IFTA Conference continued
an upscale neighborhood, full of interesting architecture, vintage shops andleafy green parks. The central location
provides easy access to many of the area’s
charming attractions, and is the perfectdistance from the downtown area. You
will be within walking distance to Union
Square, Chinatown, the Financial District,and just a short ride from Fisherman’s
Wharf, the Mission District and Golden
Gate Park.
For those not attending any Conference
sessions, a special Partner Program willfeature a Thursday San Francisco highlights tours with a lunch stop at the historic
Scoma’s restaurant. This charming restaurant nestled in the heart of San Francisco’s
Fisherman’s Wharf is one of the City’s
most popular attractions, offering wonderful views and fine dining.
T h e We d n e s d ay eve ni n g O p e ni n g
Reception will take place at the Topof the Mark restaurant, located on the
19 th floor of the InterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel. It provides a 360° panoramic view with breathtaking sights of
the San Francisco skyline, Bay, and Golden
Gate Bridge. The Top of the Mark has
hosted numerous celebrities and dignitaries and has been a popular destination
since opening in 1939.
The Friday Gala Dinner event will be heldat the Original Joe’s restaurant, which is
the quintessential classic San Francisco
dining experience. As part of the city

第26回IFTA大会

fabric for 75 years, Joe’s is located in theheart of the historic and majestic North
Beach, and provides a Mecca for natives,
tourists and culinary aficionados alike.
To conclude the Conference social program, delegates will have an opportunity
to explore California’s Napa Valley wines.
The optional Saturday Tour features twovery different wineries, the Rutherford Hilland Artesa, and will provide the unique
opportunity to compare the variety ofwine country wines.

The Conference Committee is working
hard in conjunction with the local TSAASF
Society and IFTA staff to make the conference and your stay in San Francisco an
unforgettable experience.
Plan to attend now!

Roman Bogomazov
2013 Conference Chair
http://conference.ifta.org/2013/

Thank you to our Sponsors
Platinum Sponsors

Media Sponsors

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 5President’s Report [continued from page 1]

祝！ CFTe資格・新規取得者一覧
Congratulations
New CFTes!
Adeshina Adetunji (STAN)
Faisal Al Sawadi (SSTA)
Cohen Tom Balthazar (STA)
Craig Henry Buckingham (STA)
Satish Shantilalji Chandak (STA)
Charlene Angelique Cheng Chua
(TASS)
Turmacu Dan-Constantin (STA)
Sotirios Farmakidis (STA)
Andre Frick

Grégoire Genolet (SAMT)Greg Paul Groves (ATAA)
Samuel Hogg
Markus Theodor Ilg (SAMT)Mario George Kfoury (LSTA)
Gaurav Raj Minocha (ATA)
Majed Rachidi (LSTA)
Shaun Sang (ATAA)
Rolf Carsten Schlausch (VTAD)
Yeo Yew Teck (TASS)

the “Technical Analysis Program and Certificate” with the
Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) of the UAE in
Dubai. Mohamed has provided more details on page 18.
Thakkar Vishalkumar Thakorbhai(ATA)
Yon Hong Tham (STA)
Benoit Vulic (AFATE)
Wei Hua Wang (TASS)
Romain Wars (SAMT)Stephen Whitechurch (ATAA)Pauline Yong Tung Fong (STA)
Roman Zogg

祝！ MFTAの新合格者（中村貴司氏）！
Congratulations
New MFTA!
Takashi Nakamura, MBA, CIIA, CMA, CFP, MFTA, MRICS, SMECA (NTAA—Japan)
Takashi is a fund manager at countries and emerging Asia including China and＜経歴＞
Okasan Asset Management ASEAN, employing active quantitative invest国内証券会社、外資系証券会社、損保系運用会社などを経て、現在、岡三アセッ
Co., Ltd, where he manages ment strategies. In his current position, he manトマネジメント株式会社の外国株式運用部で、投資信託を通じたアジア株のファ
Asian stock mutual funds. ages a Small-cap Asian Fund utilizing a bottom-up
ンドマネージャーに従事。15年以上の金融・証券業界経験、運用会社では年金、Prior to the current posi- approach, complemented by technical analysis.
投資信託を通じ、アクティブ、クオンツ系手法を用い、欧米、アジア株などの外tion, he worked for Yamaichi
国株式への投資経験を持つ。足元ではボトムアップアプローチに基づいたアジア
Securities, Merrill Lynch Japan Takashi graduated from Keio University (Facultyの中小型株投資をメインに行っている。
Securities, Japan Investment

of Business and Commerce) and received his

Trust, and Sompo Japan Asset MBA from the University of Wales HABS. In addiITバブルとその崩壊過程で、リテール（個人投資家向け）の証券営業を経験し、Management.
tion to an MFTA, he also holds qualifications of
投資家心理を読み取るテクニカル分析の重要性を認識したことで、今回、国際テ
Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA),
クニカルアナリスト連盟 検定テクニカルアナリスト®（MFTA）の取得に至る。
Takashi has more than
15
years
of
experienceintheChartered Member of The Securities Analysts
英国国立ウェールズ大学大学院MBA、慶應義塾大学商学部卒。国際公認投資ア
field of investment management. In his previous Association of Japan (CMA), Certified Financial
ナリスト（CIIA）、日本証券アナリスト協会検定会員（CMA）、CFP（日本FP
positions at the asset management companies he Planner (CFP®), Member of Royal Institution of
協会認定）、英国王立勅許鑑定士（MRICS）、中小企業診断士（経済産業大臣
has served, he managed pension fund and mutual Chartered Surveyors (MRICS), and is a Small and登録）。
fund portfolios investing in stocks in developed

Medium Enterprise Management Consultant.

Mr. Taichi Otaki, former Vice President Asia, stepped
down from the IFTA Board in November 2012. I am proud
to announce the vacancy was filled by Maurizio Milano, an
Italian colleague who serves on the Board of the Societa
Italiana di Analisi Tecnica (SIAT). He previously served on the
IFTA Board as the Vice President of Europe. Congratulations
Maurizio!
Last week, I received two Journals published by our member Societies. The Swiss Association of Market Technicians(SAMT) (www.samt-org.ch) has published its first issue of
The Swiss Technical Analysis Journal, and our developing
Society in Pakistan, Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan(STAP) (www.stap.com.pk) has published Inside Financial
Markets, a joint venture with the Karachi Stock Exchange.
Both Journals are published in English. I want to thank themfor their contributions. Our member Societies are active
and productive on a high level!
Last, but not least, I want to thank those of you who takethe time to send in material and news from your Societies.
It is part of IFTA’s purpose to share ideas and information
with colleagues.
I hope to see you in San Francisco in October!
Best regards,

Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D.
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 6

Calendar At-A-Glance IFTA加盟協会イベント・スケジュール
Ongoing

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly

Meetings are held monthly in 9 cities across Australia. All monthly
meetings are free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend.
Bookings are not required. Visitors fee is $30.

ATAA

VariesVaries – throughout Australia

Varieshttp://www.ataa.com.au/
meetings

Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadorsfor the CSTA and plan social and educational events for the area.
Events include presentations by Industry Professionals, TechnicalAnalysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play avital role in their community by connecting individuals and promoting
Technical Analysis.

CSTA (Canada) Chapters:
VariesMontreal; Ottawa; Durham;
Toronto; Oakville; Kitchener,
Waterloo, Guelph, Cambridge& Area; Calgary, Vancouver,
Victoria, Winnepeg

Varies – throughout Canada

Varieswww.csta.org

Monthly meetings are held in London.

STA

VariesBritish Bankers Association
Pinners Hall105 - 108 Old Broad Street
London, UK

Varieshttp://www.sta-uk.org/
events_meetings.html

Presentations from local and international speaker on acomprehensive range of topics (sharemarket, CFDs, options,futures, foreign exchange (forex trading), methodologies, money
management, psychology, etc.

STANZ

VariesEpsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave
Auckland, NZ

Varieshttp://www.stanz.co.nz/

June

21-23

ATAA (Australia) Conference—Success!—Strategies for Profit andCapital Protection

ATAA

VariesNovotel Sydney
Brighton Beach,
Brighton-le-Sands, NSW, AU

Varieshttp://www.ataa.com.au

July

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—registration opens for
October 9th examination through the IFTA website

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

8Monthly Meeting

STAN

TBA

PROT Training Hall, Ikeja
Lagos

10:00

admin@stanigeria.org

9

IFTA Board of Director’s Meeting

IFTA

NA

Teleconference

14:00(London)admin@ifta.org

17

TSAASF (San Francisco) Webinar: The Role of Backtesting in Trading
System Development

TASSAF

Dr. Howard BandyNA

15:0016:30

www.tsaasf.org/2013events

15

Board Meeting

STAN

Olumide Soyele

1, Adegbola SteetIkeja Lagos

11:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

22

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

3, Ajele Street
Lagos Island, Lagos

08.00

stanigeria@gmail.com

31

IFTA Conference Early-Bird Deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org

3

Special Presentation on:
Market Sentiment and Time Cycle

STAN

Adetunji Adeshina

PROT Training Hall
Ikeja Lagos

10:00

admin@stanigeria.
org08050200894

9

Deadline to submit Board of Directors nominations

IFTA Full Member Societies

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

10

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

3, Ajele Street
Lagos Island, Lagos

08.00

admin@stanigeria.
org08050200894

AugustIFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 7

Calendar At-A-Glance continued
Ongoing
Augustcontinued

September

October

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber

16

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II—deadline to register for
October 9th examination.

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

17Monthly Meeting/Special Presentation on Application of Multiple
Time Frame and Price and Time Analysis

STAN

Abiodun Babalola

PROT Training Hall
Ikeja Lagos

10:00

admin@stanigeria.
org08050200894

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

7

Roundtable Discussion with President and Board Members

STAN

Olumide Soyele

TBA

TBA

admin@stanigeri.org.
08050200894

10

Approved list of Board of Directors Nominees Announced

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

21

Monthly Meeting/Report

STAN

Committees

PROT Training Hall,
Ikeja Lagos

10.00

admin@stanigeria.org
08050200894

26

President's Report to Societies; AGM Agenda Published; Member
Societies Reports to IFTA

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

8

IFTA Board of Director’s Meeting

IFTA

VariesInterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

08:3015:45

admin@ifta.org

8

Bloomberg Pre-Conference Seminar

IFTA

VariesBloomberg office
Pier 3, Unit 101
San Francisco, CA USA

09:0014:30

admin@ifta.org

8

IFTA Annual General Meeting (Members Only)

IFTA

VariesInterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

16:0017:30

admin@ifta.org

9-11

IFTA 26th Annual Conference, EVOLUTION TO MASTERY:Technical Analysis, Systems and Execution

IFTA & TSAASF

TBA

InterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

Variesadmin@ifta.org
www.ifta.org

9

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II examination

IFTA

NA

Varies12

AAPTA Post-Conference

AAPTA

VariesInterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

08:0011:00

admin@ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 (2013) paper
submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

30

2014 IFTA Journal distribution to members

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

November

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber

December

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

IFTA Journal web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org
publications/journal/

15-31

admin@ifta.org

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 8CALL FOR IFTA Board Nominations IFTA理事ノミネーション
IFTA is an international organization established to advance the interests of the global
community of technical analysis societies. IFTA is managed by a Board of Directors, which
is elected by the member Societies at the Annual General Meeting, normally conductedat the time of IFTA’s Annual Conference. In selecting a slate of candidates for the IFTA
Board of Directors, IFTA seeks to have the management resources, global representation, diversity, expertise and experience needed to advance its mission.
IFTA is now requesting nominations from individuals to serve on the Board of Directors for
the October 2013 - October 2016 term. IFTA estimates that up to 6 Board vacancies will
be filled at the 2013 Annual General Meeting in San Francisco. Nominees must be willingto serve as a member or Chair of a key IFTA Committee and/or assist the Committees
and the Board in ongoing work as needed.
Board members serve without payment for their work on the IFTA Board of Directors.
Service on the IFTA board demands a high level of responsibility and a serious commitment to support IFTA’s mission; it also provides personal and professional rewards to
its members. Nominations from all interested persons are welcome. The deadline tosubmit nominations is August 9, 2013.

The Nomination procedure is simple:

1 Any member in good standing of an IFTA Member Society may be nominated or
may nominate him/herself.
2 Nominations must be seconded by two members in good standing of an IFTA
Member Society.
3 The nominee must have the support of the Board of Directors of a local Member
Society, preferably his or or her own Society.
4 Each nominee must submit the following to IFTA Headquarters no later than August
9, 2013.
a Completed Nomination Formb Completed IFTA Member Society Endorsementc Summary or Curriculum Vitae (CV)5 All nomination materials should be sent by email or postal mail to:
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, Maryland 20850 USA

Phone: 240/404-6508
Fax:
301/990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org

Nominations will be announced to the membership in early September. Voting will takeplace at the IFTA Annual General Meeting on October 8, 2013. If you have questions
concerning this matter or would like a nominating form, please contact IFTA Admin at
admin@ifta.org.

Nomination Form: IFTA Board Of Directors
Name of Nominee

Firm

Address

City

State

Postal Code

Phone

Fax

Email

Country

Member in Good Standing of (Name of IFTA Member Society):

Nominated by

Persons seconding this nomination (must be members in good standing of an IFTA Member
Society). Two seconders required.
1)
Name		 Society
2)Name		 Society

Nominee must have the support of the Board of his/her IFTA Member Society. A completed IFTA
Member Society Endorsement (below) must accompany this Nomination Form. A summary of
the nominee’s professional credentials and background must accompany this application.
Nominations deadline: August 9, 2013.

IFTA Member Society Endorsement(Name of Nominee) 		

(Name of IFTA Member Society)and has the support of the Society’s Board of Directors to run for a position on the IFTA Board of Directors.

Signature of Society Officer		

DateIFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 9

Education Lounge「教育ラウンジ」
Market Timing
By M a ri o Kfo u r y, CF Te, E xe c u tive
Committee Member, Lebanese Society ofTechnical Analysts (LSTA), Beirut, Lebanon
More than ever before, since the inception of the internet, the telecom revolution, PCs, software and technical tools,
the need for a market strategy has madeitself critical, if not imperative. In a world
moving at the speed of light, the speed oftravelling waves and internet data flow; theimplementation of a market timing strategy would separate, in my opinion, thewinners from the losers; the survivors fromthe "wannabes" and "would-have-been's".
In order to talk about market timing, wehave to define or rather differentiate afinancial vocabulary. Market timing is a
strategy relying on facts, a discipline, aprecise set of rules that we follow andrespect to buy and sell, enter and exit
the market. It is not market cycles, which
is a market forecast system attempting toマーケット・タイミング

predict where the financial market will bein terms of price and time in the future
based on amplitudes, periods, phases,
left and right translations, etc.
The market has three tendencies: uptrend,
downtrend, sideway ranges, and there will
always be cycles of boom and bust (bulls
and bears). If we look at any time frame
chart, we notice price moves 30% of thetime up, 30% of the time sideways and
30% of the time down. Thus, the relevanceto implement a strategy to be on the rightside of the market, to be well-positioned
and benefit from the ups, downs and theranges is made. Before the development
and accessibility of technical analysis tools,
a buy and hold strategy was the safest way
not to lose money for the investor since
any unrealized profit or loss is irrelevant
as long we haven’t exited our positions
and can hold indefinitely until theend of a recession or a bearmarket. Nevertheless, if you had bought
your stocks in 1929, it would have taken
you 25 years to break even. Or from 1966
to 1983, it would have taken 17 years to
break even. Since January 2000, the DJI
has been fluctuating between the 11,500
and 14,000 levels, which is its actual one,so does buy and hold still sound convincing? How many times would good market
timing strategy have returned throughout these past 13 years? Buy and hold is
passive involvement and market timing is
active involvement in the stock market,
to avoid or benefit from these long-term
bear or sideways markets, to be in cash or
shorting the market.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 10

Education Lounge

Market Timing continued

Statistics and studies done by very “smart
and bright people” have demonstrated
the following effects on financial markets,“the Halloween effect”; or “sell in May
and go away.” September the worst andJanuary the best month of the year; moon
cycles, sunspots. If the moon and stars canaffect the high and low tides in the sea,
you can be sure they would also affect ourmoods, behaviors and the stock market.
Major elections such as presidential ones
in some countries can have a direct orindirect impact on the global economy,
especially if the country in question is

the size of the United States, in terms ofpolitics, production, consumption andinnovation. As such, the U.S. presidential
election and the political party favored inthat election play a key role on the U.S.
economy, maybe for the new hopes andexpectations or simply for the change it
brings, which in turn affects the global
economy. In general, it has been notedthat the following Presidential election
cycle prevails in the United States; 4thyear–pre-election year (+), 1st year–election year (+), 2nd year–post-election year(-), 3rd year–3rd year of term (-). Then there
are some people who like to buy
or sell when there is a certain
percentage change in an index
or indicator; usually the three orfour percentage mark is used.
Studying the market using fundamental analysis, economical reports and information
like “buy on rumor/sell on thenews”, employment, consumer
price reports, producer priceindex, beige book, housing
starts, leading economic indicator, gross domestic product,Interest rates, P/E, EPS, alpha,beta, omega, etc. can be veryri s k y and require s ex p eri ence and thorough planning.
It is all about how the market
responds and reacts to thesereports. They might be, and aremost of the time, the mere catalysts ortriggers in the markets. You can try timing the market using these fundamental reports, presidential cycles, seasonal
cycles, the January effect, the Santa
Claus or Valentine effect or the flip ofa coin; but whatever you choose, use itwith patience, discipline and consistency.
Technical Analysis, if well applied, gives
you the best and most accurate timing
tool because it constantly measures thestrength and weaknesses of the market,
down to the minute. All relevant information is included in the price, which is plotted on a chart to make it more visible. A
picture is worth a thousand words.
If you draw a random line across a chartand committed to buying every time theprice crossed the line up and sold every
time the price crossed down, you will
make money or at least would not havelost some. So, what if that line is basedon arithmetical formulas, geometricalshapes or some cosmic laws to expose thestrengths and weaknesses of the market?
This is what Technical Analysis is all about.
In order to time the market, some basic
knowledge of technical tools is needed,such as the use of trend lines, moving averages, oscillators or even better, geometry.
Use whatever indicator, with back testing,that fits the personality and tempo of the
security you are dealing; moving average (simple, exponential or weighted…),
MACD, RSI, %R, etc. It does not matter

which, but choose a few, devise a plan,a strategy and follow it religiously withdiscipline and consistency. Otherwise you
will not be timing.
In conclusion, I reiterate the need tounderstand market timing. It is a strategy
not a market forecast, a discipline that lets
you be on the right side of the market.
Whatever your trading style, market timing is about methodology, consistency,
mechanical thinking and a rigorous set ofrules to remove the interference of emotions and subjectivity and maximize efficiency. Like a three-legged stool, fundamental, sentiment and Technical Analysis
are all part of an otherwise incomplete
study, but consider the latter for signals
and precision. As a final word of psychology: What affects the financial markets?
Financial markets are the reflection ofhuman behavior and psychology. We are
emotional beings who respond collectively
to emotional stimulus and our environment, mainly greed and fear. Reign themin. Set reasonable, moderate expectations
and goals. Little by little, the bird builds
its nest.
Warning: Trading is not a game. Trading isvery serious business. There is a bull and abear in the markets. Getting into the worldof trading and investment requires many
imperatives and prerequisites, among
them knowledge, self-discipline, restraint,patience and money management.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 11

Member News IFTA加盟協会ニュース
AFATE (France)
Pu r s u a nt to t h e O rd i na r y G e n e r a l
Assembly held on March 26th, 2013 theBoard of Directors has re-elected, foranother year, Mr. Robert Haddad as
Chairman of the Association Française
des Analystes Techniques. Robert will
pursue his endeavours, along with themembers of the Board, to ensure thatTechnical Analysis is seriously represented
in France, through financial institutions
and academia.
In May, AFATE, in partnership with the
NYSE Euronext, held its Spring University
with special guest Mr. Tony Plummer, on
the theme Is the Economic Cycle About
to Turn Over? The two other speakers,
Messrs Jean-Marc Daniel and Pierre
Sabatier, who are prominent economists,
shared their views with the public.

ATAA (Australia)
T h e A u s t ra l i a n Te c h n i c a l A n a ly s i s
Association 2013 Conference, 21-23 June
2013, is a major event for traders andinvestors who are serious about being
successful in the markets.
 3 days, 12 speakers, 14 presentation
sessions talking about useful strategies
and more!

 Ample peer networking in Conference
Huddles, tea breaks, lunch times, andmore!
 Plus the popular “Follow My Trade”
session, and panel discussion forum.
 A variety of session topics includes:
Markets Analysis, investing psychology
and emotions, price chart patterns,
and understanding the silent killer of
profits—discretion—plus lots more!
 Venue: Novotel Sydney Brighton Beach - inthe Sydney suburb of Brighton-le-Sands,
just a short distance from Mascot airport(less than 6km).
 Three full days — Friday to Sunday 21st
to 23rd June
For more details and to register, please
visit ATAA’s website at http://www.ataa.
com.au/conference-overview.html

SAMT (Switzerland)T h e S w i s s A s s o c i a t i o n o f M a r ke t
Technicians, established in 1987, continues to experience positive growth andinterest within the financial community.
Being a tri-lingual society, it serves the
local interests of members and colleagues
in Zurich, Geneva and Lugano.
In this respect, SAMT is a good example of
how a passion for the universal languageof Technical Analysis can create an important synergy between different cultures ofprofessional thinkers and market industries.

Journal LaunchWith great honour and pleasure, SAMT
announces the launch of its first Swiss
Technical Analysis
Journal. The
Swiss TechnicalAnalysis Journal
will be publishedo n a q u a r te r l ybasis and it
offers key information about our
regional chaptersand a wealth of
insight ful market knowledge,
which includes new investment ideas,
exclusive interviews with leading market experts, book reviews and so muchmore. To view, go to http://samtjournal.
uberflip.com/t/47762

Regional Meetings
SAMT hosts regular meetings across each
their tri-lingual regions (Zurich, Geneva,
Lugano), featuring leading speakers thatoffer insightful market outlooks and educational strategies.

 21st March, Alberto Vivanti of Vivanti
Analysis & Mario Guffanti of Financial
Advisory & Research, delivered two
key presentations at the CFA Society
in Milan, Italy: “Secular Outlook andActual Trends of Financial Markets froma Technical View Point” and “History andAcademic Studies on the Profitability ofTechnical Analysis.” 22nd April, Bruno Estier of B.E.S.T shared
his Global Market Outlook at the Credit
Suisse forum in Geneva, Switzerland.
 27th May, Alessandro Angeli, MFTA of T&F
Asset Management SA and Ron William,
CMT, MSTA of RW Market Advisory
shared their own unique strategies ofusing Japanese Candlesticks, including
market timing and model-based strategies.
The SAMT event hosted in Lugano, wasorganized by Nicola Donadio of Centro
di Studio Bancari di Vezia and Mario
Guffanti, Assistant Vice President of
the SAMT Lugano Chapter.
 28th May, Henrik Mikkelsen of Strategy& Investment Management presented
on “Risk and Money Management” inZurich.
 30 th May, Michael Riesner of UBS talked
about “The Endgame of the Secular
Bear Market” at a special SAMT Geneva
quarterly event hosted in collaboration
with Bloomberg.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 12

Member News continued

SAMT Regional Meetings
SAMT welcomes new and innovative speakers. If you would like to host a presentation and will be visiting Switzerland, please contact
Ron William, ronwilliamPR@gmail.com. Click here to review previous SAMT events and presentations.

Geneva—Jack Davidson, Bloomberg

Lugano: Ron William, Nicola Donadio, Mario V. Guffanti. Alberto Vivanti and Alessandro Angeli.

Geneva Speaker—Michael Riesner, Head TA, UBS
Geneva Attendees

Geneva—Canape+IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 13

Member News continued

Save the Dates! 資格試験の日程

STAN (Nigeria)Society for Technical Analysts, Nigeria holds 2nd Annual Conference
The 2nd Annual Conference of the Society
for Technical Analysts, Nigeria was heldon 13th April 2013 at Westown Hotel, Ikeja
Lagos. The Conference recorded a great
success and welcomed participants fromacross the country and internationally.
The international speakers included:
Trevor Neil from Beta Group, London,
UK; David Furcajg of 3rd Waves Partners,
Paris, France; and Olufemi Awoyem, CEO
Proshare Nig Ltd., Lagos, Nigera.
The Conference was chaired by the
Director of Securities and Exchange
Commission, Mrs. Aruma Oteh, who
was humbly represented by Mrs. U.N.
Umuloku. Other invited guests included:
Mr. Tunji Oba, CEO Forte Financials
Ltd; Mr. Rasheed Momoh, Head CapitalMarket, TRW Stockbrokers; and Mr Ade
Buraimo, CEO AlphaMorgan Capital Ltd.

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions
www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/.
Download Syllabus and Study Guide:ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2013-CFTeI_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
CFTe Level II
DG Representative, Mrs. U.N. Umuloku with the
opening address.

Date

9 October 201316 April 2014

Registration deadline

16 August 201322 February 2014

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Download Syllabus and Study Guide at:
ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2013-CFTeII_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program,
visit http://www.ifta.org/certifications

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
MFTA Alternative Path

Mr. Olufemi Awoyemi, CEO Proshare Nig. Ltd.

Pre-Application deadline

31 July 201328 February 2014

Application/outline deadline (ifapproved)

2 October 2013

2 May 2014

Paper submission deadline

15 March 201415 October 2014

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/

MFTA Regular Path
Application/outline deadline

2 October 2013

2 May 2014

Paper submission deadline

15 March 201415 October 2014

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_session2.php/

Panel discussion: Abiodun Babalola introducing David Furcajg to the panel while joining discussion from
Paris through Skype.

For more information about the MFTA program, visit
www.ifta.org/certifications/master-of-financial-technical-analysis-mfta-program/

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 14

Member News continued

Trevor Neil, Beta Group, London, UK

A cross section of Members and participants.

The Conference was attended by a crosssection of more than 100 participantsfrom the financial industry, such as stockbrokers, institutional traders, investmentbankers, mutual fund managers, money
managers, financial markets analysts,
financial journalists, and retail traders.

From Left: Rasheed Momoh, Mrs. U.N. Umuloku, Olumide Soyele ( STAN President) Tunji Oba (CEOForte Financials), Olufemi Awoyemi ( CEO Proshare Nig Ltd), Trevor Neil, Beta Group, London

From left: Olabode Oridalu, Adeshina Adetunji, CFTe, Babalola Abiodun, Bankole David, Trevor Neil,
Olumide Soyele, Babatunde Thomas, Rasheed Momoh

Mr. Olufemi Awoyemi, CEO, Proshare
Nig Ltd., delivered the keynote paper.
Another paper on timing the market wasdelivered by Trevor Neil from Beta Group,
London, United Kingdom. He explained
the application of technical analysis to
the Nigeria financial market followed bya panel discussion that highlighted some
opportunities in the Nigeria market andways to create liquidity in the Nigeria capital
market using technical analysis perspectives.
Special supports was also received from
Union Bank of Nigeria, Forte Financials
Ltd., Legacy Insurance Brokers Ltd.,
Bullbear Ecosystem, SETs Plc. and WebTV.
The event was broadcast live on the internet powered by WebTV.

TASSA (South Africa)
The Technic al A nlays t s' Societ y ofSouthern Africa holds regular monthly presentation meetings, usually on the second
Monday of every month. Presenters are
typically investment or trader professionals who talk on technical analysis methods
and systems. There are occasional talks
on markets, trader tools, electronic trading and managing behavioural aspects
that impact on trading and investment
decisions.
If you are interested in being part of
TASSA’s monthly meetings and becoming
an associate of TASSA, you are welcome tocome along and meet and learn from otherinvestors, traders and analysts. TASSA
associate members who donate an annual
R250 to TASSA, attend presentation meetings at a reduced price.
Contact: Victor Hugo, Chairman
Info@tassa.org.za

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 15

討論会「これからの数年はどう特徴づけられるか？デフレ？インフレ？両方？」
How
Will the Next Few Years be Characterized?
討論者：ロバート・プレクター氏、マーティン・プリン氏。モデレーター：ロン・ウイリアム氏
Inflation, Deflation, or Both?
Featuring Robert Prechter, CMT, Presidentof Elliott Wave International & Martin
Pring, Chairman of Pring Turner CapitalPreserving capital is kind of tough. Youmight decide to have cash in different
currencies, such as the Swiss franc. But
the world’s always changing; and we arealways keeping our eyes open for where
the dangers can be. As we saw in Cyprus,
even if someone had a million Euros incash stashed away, suddenly they couldn’ttransport it out of the country.

Moderated By Ron William, CMT, MSTA,
Founder & Principal Strategist of RW
Market Advisory
During the annual symposium of theMarket Technicians Association, April 2013,
two of the world’s most renowned veteranmarket technicians, Robert Prechter, CMT,
President of Elliott Wave International andMartin Pring, Chairman of Pring Turner
Capital, shared their key insights duringa moderated panel discussion with Ron
William, CMT, MSTA, Founder & Principal
Market Strategist of RW Market Advisory.
They spoke on one of today’s most widely
debated questions about Inflation &Deflation pressures and how both risk scenarios would impact your investment decisions and portfolio returns. Please selectthe link to review the full online video.
Ron William: What is the best strategy tohelp preserve capital given your stanceson either of the inflationary or deflationarypressures ahead?
Martin Pring: Our firm (Pring Turner
Capital) has just come out with a new ETF

Left to Right: Robert Prechter, Martin Pring, and Ron William(The AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business
Cycle ETF) (DBIZ) and I think that would
be the place to go. In the past, obviously,
being long commodities has been a goodplace to be; or commodity resource-based
stocks or basic industry stocks have also
been good places to overcome inflationary trends. So I see no reason why theywouldn’t still be a good idea.
Robert Prechter: I think it’s extremely
hard to preserve capital. With the abandonment of real money in the monetarysystem, it’s become nearly impossible
to be a quiet little saver, because wherever you put your money other people
are going to get their hands on it. Or, it’s

possibly going to disappear overnight. So
it’s one of the hardest tasks in the world.
That’s why one of the things that I havebeen recommending in the past few years
is actual cash. I mean cash stored away ina nice safe place or in multiple safe places.
I think it’s going to become very handy.
Gold is the only real money. I believe Bit
coins will become real money eventually,
but it’s gold at the moment. However, gold
is extremely overpriced and overvalued in
my view; and I don’t think it’s a good buy
at this time. Of course, I didn’t see it going
this high in the first place. Still, I think wewill have another buying opportunity forgold later on, when everything bottoms.

In some of the countries that I mentioned
earlier such as Nor way, France andSweden, they are talking about making
it illegal to spend more than a thousand
Euros in one transaction. So there are somany ways that your prudence can be
thwarted. It’s a very difficult environment
to preserve capital.
RW: Switching to the currency world,
there is a growing debate on how either
inflationary or deflationary pressures arelikely to effect the US dollar. What is yourcurrent view on the US dollar and how doyou see that trend playing out?
MP: Well, as I highlighted in my presentation on monthly charts, the US dollar
looks very strong here. I did an exercise last month looking at the long-term
momentum of all the principal cross rates
including the Euro, the Japanese yen, theIFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 16

How Will the Next Few Years Be Characterized? Inflation, Deflation, or Both? continued
Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar andthe British pound and they all favoured
the US dollar on a long-term basis. So it
seems to me that the proof is the US dollar
is likely to move up, not as I said before,
because it’s a great currency, but because
all the others are so much worse.
RP: I agree with Martin on this and the waythat he put it in his speech is exactly right.
When we look at the dollar index, we are

Despite this factor, my shop has beenbullish on the dollar for quite some time,
mostly because of the very aggressive
number of vocal bets against it. All thepeople have been saying the US dollar is
likely to crash, or it's going to zero, thanks
to the US Federal Reserve. We felt that wasan impossible psychology for a continuing
falling dollar. We don’t think the bull market is over yet; it still has a long way to go.

“The history of [interest] rates is that they are tied
into two things; one is the amount of commodity or CPI inflation... Then of course, the otherone becomes the credit default risk and if that
becomes pretty high, then that will send up rates
too. But that tends to be more of a temporary
thing, rather than a [long-term] trend driver. But
still, even those temporary moves as we saw in the
1930s, or more specifically, between the years of
1929-1931 can be pretty violent.”—Martin Pring

not looking at the purchasing power of thedollar, we are only looking at the dollar’s
performance related to other currencies.
So my opinion about the question is, whichcurrency is likely to be deflating in thelargest way? That’s the one that is likely
to go up more, because as debt starts todissolve and disappear, the remaining dollars and euros will be more valuable. That’s
why cash is always worth something in a
deflationary situation.

RW: One of the interesting points
in both of your presentations was
the similar perspectives on longterm US Government yields, suggesting an exhaustion and potential (upside) reversal, in terms ofboth the cyclical and secular trend.
Can I ask the both of you about
the potential psychological drivers behind that within either an
inflationary of deflationary cycle?

MP: The history of rates is thatthey are tied to two things; one isthe amount of commodity or CPI
inflation that takes place which isabout the closest correlation that you cancome to on any particular relationship withbond yields. Then, of course, the otherone becomes the credit default risk andif that becomes pretty high, then that will
send rates up, too. But that tends to be
more of a temporary thing, rather than along-term trend driver. But still, even those
temporary moves as we saw in the 1930s,
or more specifically, between the years of
1929-1931 can be pretty violent. So thoseMarket Technicians Association’sannual 2014
symposium
April 2 - 3, 2014

Learn more at http://symposium.mta.org

at Convene , 730 Third Ave, New York City

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

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How Will the Next Few Years Be Characterized? Inflation, Deflation, or Both? continued
are two of the key determinants of yield
on a long-term basis.
RP: I think that yields will go up if we haveinflation, surely, and I believe they will go
up if we have severe deflation for the reasons that I went over. In fact, when Greece
went through its period of austerity, rates
soared into double digits. That’s the typeof risk you have within a deflationary environment. It sucks buying power from all
the other places like a black hole.
One thing to keep in mind is that theFederal government currently pays out
about 6% of its budget just to cover interest. So if Treasury rates start to go up, it
would be a really bad sign for the budget.
RW: The next question, on the current
US stock market outlook, is probably
one that I received the most numberof requests [from leading institutional
representatives and many MTA symposium delegates]. The US stock market
has recently posted new all-time highs,
driven by relatively strong breadth anda historically strong four-year cyclicalrecovery. How sustainable is the current
bull-trend and what parallels may exist
from prior secular bear trends, notably
the 1973 peak, which many industry analysts are highlighting as a potential roadmap template.
MP: I don’t know because my work does
not forecast magnitude or duration oftrends, unless I have a price pattern orsomething similar that would just giveme an objective. All I can do is follow thedirection of the indicators and right now
my longer-term indicators, the ones thatmeasure the primary trend, the majorityof them are suggesting that prices aregoing to go higher and the trend is up.
One of the really strong characteristics
of a typical bull market in stocks is usually when short-term interest rates start
to move up and as we know the Fed had
kept rates down to zero and so we don’t
have a sign of a top at this point.
So I can’t tell how far it’s going or whenit’s going to get there, all I can say is thatright now all my indicators are bullish andtherefore I am bullish, notwithstandinga short-term correction, obviously. But
until that stuff starts to turn, I’ve got tostay bullish. I’ve learned the lesson thehard way. If I tell the markets what to do,then I am usually wrong and end up withblood on my face.
RP: Well, I should have learned more lessons the hard way, but I can tell you flatout that I am as bearish as I can possibly
be in studying 200 years, well 300 years
really, when you throw in Britain, of stock
price movements. I think this is one of
the most amazing junctures that I haveever seen. Now, I felt the same way in2000 and the same way in 2007. In fact, I
couldn’t believe we had a second chance,much less this third one. In the declineof 2009, how many people said “Oh if I
could just get to breakeven, I would getout of the market”. Well okay, now they
are more than breaking, but are theygetting out of the market?
We just had a record purchase in January
of inflows into mutual funds and thelast time it was that high was during
September-October of 2007. So for thethird time, we have had peak indications
within the stock mania. I think we are setting up for the first time, a reversal in all
three markets: stocks, commodities andbonds together. So I think that we havea triple whammy coming up. I certainly
would not want to own anything. I thinkit’s pretty safe to be short, personally.
But I have been wrong plenty of times,
so please don’t do what I tell you to do.

in real-adjusted rates in stocks, would
be things like the S&P/Case-Shiller priceearnings ratio which typically registers toa number of 6 times at the end of a bearmarket. Yields on the S&P 500 are usually
6-7%; they are currently 2-3% and currently the Shiller ratio is about 23 times.
Moreover, the Tobin "q" ratio which measures the replacement value of stocks typically peaks at a secular peak at $1.15, orsomething like that, and ends the secularbear at around $.30. Last I saw about threeor four months ago, it was about $.80. So
I would be looking for a lot of these fundamental indicators, which I really regard
as sentiment indicators, to be moving tothose extremes.

RW: What about the psychology in priorsecular bear markets? What key lessons
are important and are there any parallels
that we should be aware of for now andthe eventual endgame of a secular bearmarket?

RP: I agree 100% with that. We have notseen a classic bear market low since 1982,
which is the last time those figures were inbear market bottom territory. We also saw
them in 1974, 1942 and 1949, which were
all great buying opportunities.

MP: Well having said that I am bullish on
the primary trend, of course, my worksuggests that we are still in a secular bearmarket for inflation-adjusted stocks. We
are still about 20% from the peak in the
S&P 500, so we could still see a 20% riseand still remain with a secular bear market
or trading range.

We have seen nothing like them. There
have been no corrections really worthy ofa major bear market low. We had a nicepanic in 2008-2009, but it was from reallyhigh levels, and some of the indicatorsthat I showed you never even correctedfrom the high of extreme optimism andextreme complacency. But it’s coming
up. You know, markets go up and they godown and the world is never going to bea place where we are always optimistic oralways pessimistic.

The things that I’m looking for to suggestthat I am seeing an end to the secular
movement, or a downward movement

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 18

How Will the Next Few Years Be Characterized? Inflation, Deflation, or Both? continued
When Frost and I wrote our book way
back in 1978, we said there is a big bull
market coming and it’s going to lead towhat we called grand super cycle top. I
think the fact that we have had these multiple manias is a reflection of that model
working. For example, in 2000 we had
the all-time high in the NASDAQ. You
know that’s the only index that rose ahundred times, just like margin debt did.
In 2006, 2007 and 2008 we had threemanias packed in together. We had thepeak in real estate in 2006, we had stocks
in 2007 and commodities in 2008, packed
together very closely.
This time gold made an all-time, new highalong with stocks. Now stocks have continued for another year, but I still thinkthat this is a lagging sort of exhaustion
move, with new highs peaking last year.
I think that’s the beginning of the end,
the beginning of the turn downward. But
we will see. We have seen things stretch
farther than normal, twice already. As I
have said several times, maybe hedge
funds will go from thirty times leverage
to a hundred and fifty times leverage.
Who knows?
RW: A question in line with the title“Inflation, Deflation or Both?” What areeach of your views on the potential fusion(or duality) between inflation and deflation? Part of this will be down to timing(i.e. long-term structural deflation, interrupted by short periods of cyclical inflationor vice versa).

MP: We have the cycles that alternate
between inflation and deflation. In fact,
inflation breeds its own deflation, because
if you have a huge run up in commodity
prices for example, that means oil andfood prices go up and that sucks out purchasing power and also pushes up interest
rates, causing the economy to correct.
So I believe that it’s a transitional continuation of the two. The only thing different
is the degree that happens in each cycle.
RP: I’m pretty much in agreement. I thinkthat we started to see a change to deflationary psychology between 2000 and2006 on a very long-term basis. It takes
time for these things to develop. People
talk about austerity. You know the Federal
government is even scaling back its budget by a small amount. They are arguing
about it and that’s something new. The
psychology is slowly seeping to anotherside of the ledger.
On a short-term basis, yes, it is cyclical.
Between 2006 and 2008 we had deflation,and since 2009, we’ve had a reflationary
trend. That’s the one that I think has lostits upside momentum. It hasn’t quite rolled
over in the US, but has already rolled overin Europe. Now that the cyclical is joining
the secular, it looks like a very interestingtime in the years ahead.
RW: On a final note, I would like to ask
Robert Prechter if he could kindly sharea few words of insight on the study ofSocionomics and its focus
on causality ahead of yourup and coming annual
conference.

When Frost and I wrote our book way back in 1978, we
said there is a big bull market coming and it’s going
to lead to what we called grand super cycle top, and I
think the fact that we have had these multiple manias
is a reflection of that model working. For example, in2000 we had the all-time high in the NASDAQ; youknow, that’s the only index that rose a hundred times,
just like margin debt did. In 2006, 2007 and 2008 we
had three manias packed in together. We had the peakin real estate in 2006, we had stocks in 2007 and commodities in 2008, packed together very closely.

RP: [“Socionomic s is thestudy of social action thatex p r e s s e s s o c i a l m o o d .
Social mood arises endogenously from unconscious
herding impulses inherited
through evolution, and ispatterned according to the
Wave Principle”]. The fol—Robert Prechter
lowing week we have ourthird annual Social Mood
Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.
It’s a great gathering of minds, really brilliant people, from academia to the professions. It is one long day with 12 different
speakers. We discussed social mood andthe effect of social mood on markets, culture and the society. Look it up on the web
for more information at www.socionomics.
net (Read more: Socionomics Explained
and follow on Twitter: @Socionomics).
Investing in the Second Lost Decade by Martin J.
Pring, Joe D. Turner & Tom J. Kopas Part One &Part Two Video Series that accompany the book.

Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper
in a Deflationary Depression by Robert R.
Prechter, Jr. The world’s few deflationists:
www.deflation.com
Financial and Socionomic Theory, new DVD:
“Robert Prechter at Oxford, Cambridge andTrinity”; read about it at www.socionomics.net
To contact the moderator of this interview: Ron
William, CMT, MSTA Email: ronwilliamPR@gmail.com
Website: www.ronwilliam.com

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 19

The IFTA and the Emirates Securities and Commodities
Authority (ESCA) Sign Memorandum of Understanding
IFTA、ESCA（アラブ首長国連邦

証券商品監督局）覚書締結

In disseminating Technical Analysis scienceand establishing Technical Analysis local
societies around the globe, IFTA is pleased
to announce the genesis Technical Analysis
science partnership with the United ArabEmirates (UAE) in cooperation with theEmirates Securities and Commodities
Authority (ESCA). Last March in Dubai,
a seminar entitled "Technical Analysis:
Certificate Launch Seminar" was offered.
During this seminar, IF TA signed a
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
with ESCA, the objective being to reinforce the promotion of technical analysis

science and accreditation of market professionals operating in the UAE capital
markets and the financial services industry. This MOU will be accomplished byestablishing Technical Analysis preparation courses for the CFTe Level I exam
to ESCA candidates in the ESCA training
center. The long-term goal is to establish
a UAE Technical Analysis society by the
UAE CFTe successors.

The event commenced with a speech by
ESCA’s CEO H.E Abdulla Salem Al-Turifi
and then the signing ceremony of the
MOU by him and IFTA Chairman Dr. Rolf
Wetzer. Two specialized lectures introducing to the Technical Analysis science
followed, one from IFTA Chairman Dr.
Rolf Wetzer and the other from the IFTA
VP for the Middle East and Africa region,
Mr. Mohamed Ashraf.

This seminar was established under thepatronage of the Minister of Economy H.E
Engineer Sultan Bin Saeed Al-Mansoori.

Many important figures in the Arab markets attended, including Chairman of theMuscat Securities Market, Mr. Hassan Ali

Dr. Rolf Wetzer, IFTA President, and H.E Abdulla
Salem Al-Turifi, SCA CEO

Signing the Memorandum of Understanding: Dr.
Rolf Wetzer, IFTA President; and H.E Abdulla
Salem Al-Turifi, SCA CEO.

First row, L to R: Mohamed Ashraf, IFTA VP for the
Middle East and Africa Region; Hassan Ali Jawad,
Muscat Securities Market Chairman; Jalil Tarif, General
Secretary of the Union of Arab Securities Authorities.

Jawad and the General Secretary of theUnion of Arab Securities Authorities, Mr.
Jalil Tarif, and individuals from all walks of
the Technical Analysis field.
IFTA is pleased to be part of this important step to disseminate Technical Analysis
science in the gulf region. IFTA would liketo thank ESCA for their positive and strong
cooperation and support to accomplish
this objective in increasing the education
standards, efficiency, awareness, safety
and professionalism of understanding theTechnical Analysis science.

Opening Speech: H.E Abdulla Salem Al-Turifi,
SCA CEO.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 20

Does your Member Society wish to hosta forthcoming IFTA Conference?
IFTA is seeking “Expressions of Interest”
from Member Societies for the hosting of
the IFTA Conference to be held in 2015
and 2016. IFTA wishes to make the selectionof conference hosts a multi-year schedule
into the future, and for it to be both a morecollegial and transparent process.
The IFTA Board is developing a set of criteria
for selection of conference hosts and this will
include rotation between regions, attractivenessof the location to IFTA colleagues, likely local
support, potential for financial success, andthe participation of members of the local
Society in past IFTA Conferences. In addition
to the selection criteria, there is also an IFTA
Conference Manual in preparation that will
be shared with candidate Societies in theyear before selection.
In cooperation with a host member society,
IFTA will finance, contract and organize
the IFTA Annual Conference. This allows
the selected Member Society to host a
professional international conference on
Technical Analysis with leading speakers
in the field and to profile their society inthe world community of Technical Analysts.
The host of the conference will have theopportunity to raise the national profileof their organization, and has the potential
to increase revenue for the ongoing workand support of their society. (A proportionof any conference surplus will go to thehosting society.)

Background:
The International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, Inc. (IFTA) was incorporated in1986 and is a global organization of market
analysis societies and associations. This notfor-profit federation has four main goals:• Provide a centralized international exchange
for information, data, business practices,
local customs and all matters related totechnical analysis in various financial centres.
• Provide meetings and encourage theinterchange of material, ideas andinformation for the purpose of adding to
the knowledge of colleagues of individual
societies and associations.
• Foster the establishment of local (country)
societies of technical analysts aroundthe world.
• Encourage the highest standards ofprofessional ethics and competence
among technical analysts worldwide.
The first annual IFTA conference was heldin Tokyo in late 1988. This intellectual
exchange was followed by a second
conference in London in October 1989,
under the tutelage of host, Robin Griffiths,
President of the British Society of TechnicalAnalysts (STA) at the time. Since then IFTA
has continuously held an annual conference,in different locations throughout the world,
hosted by a different society, in Octoberor November each year. Conferences were
held in the following cities:
1988 Tokyo, Japan
1989 London, England1990 Montebello, Canada
1991 Mexico City, Mexico
1992 Dublin, Ireland
1993 New York, NY USA
1994 Paris, France
1995 San Francisco, CA USA
1996 Amsterdam, The Netherlands
1997 Sydney, Australia
1998 Rome, Italy
1999 Niagara-on-the-Lake, Canada
2000 Mainz, Germany
2001 Tokyo, Japan
2002 London, England2003 Washington, DC USA
2004 Madrid, Spain2005 Vancouver, Canada
2006 Lugano, Switzerland
2007 Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt
2008 Paris, France
2009 Chicago, IL USA
2010 Berlin, Germany
2011 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
2012 Singapore
2013 San Francisco, CA USA

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 21

Host Societies continued

In close coordination with the host society,
IFTA will be responsible for the following:• Site selection• Contract negotiations• Hotel logistics• Sponsorship packaging and solicitationand contracting• Programming• Exhibits management• Special event coordination• Audiovisual production• Registration• Marketing• Financial management
This allows the host society to do what
it does best—help determine the site,theme, program and “personality” for the
conference. The host society will define
the vision for the conference while IFTA’s
focus will be on its execution. The hostsociety is a full partner in the execution of
the conference; its role can expand as far
as its skill and experience allows. The hostsociety shares in any surplus generated by
the conference while avoiding any financial
exposure.
Before submitting an “Expression of Interest”
it is highly desirable that colleagues fromthe prospective host society have alreadyattended an IFTA Conference and are awareof the standard, format and conference“community”. When a society has been

accepted for the next IFTA Conference it
is almost mandatory for representatives of
the next society, including the prospective
local conference chair, to attend this prior
IFTA Conference.
Where a Member Society is submitting
an “Expression of Interest” the following
guidelines may assist:• For any proposal into the future: The yearor optional years that the Member Society
wishes to host the IFTA Conference.
• Proposed conference location and city.
• As a guideline, the proposed conference
location should be within a 30–45 minutes
taxi-drive from a well-serviced international
airport.
• It is generally preferred that the conference
venue should be in the same hotel as
where delegates are staying (or at least
within a short walking distance).
• Details about your Member Society,number of members, activities, etc., whowill likely be the local conference Chair,and the likely composition and experienceof the local conference committee.
• Climatic conditions for the months of
September to November.
As the “Expressions of Interest” develop for
the following years the candidate Member
Societies may be advertised in the IFTA
Update to give colleagues a “taste” of what
is being considered.

As the deadline for a decision approaches the
IFTA Conference Chair will be in contact toelicit additional information. This may include:• An update on information previously
supplied.
• A theme or themes for the conference
you would like to host
• Preliminary ideas you may already havefor off-site conference events• Ideas you may have for spouse/partner
events parallel to the conference• If you already know, a list of speakers
you think you would like to invite to theconference• Names of potential local sponsors• Any additional information you think isimportant to evaluate your proposal.
Please submit your proposal toadmin@ifta.org, by August 23, 2013.
Should you have any questions, pleasecontact Linda Bernetich at the address
above. We will be happy to arrange a callto discuss with you.

IFTAUPDATE 2013 Volume 20 Issue 2

page 22

IFTA加盟協会
IFTA
Member Societies

Board of Directors IFTA理事

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
AUSTRIA—VTAO* Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Österreichs www.vtao.at
BOSNIA and HERZEGOVINA—SMS* Society for Market Studies trzisnestudije.org
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
CROATIA- CTAA* Croatian Technical Analysis Association www.huta-ctaa.hr
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA* Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts
NIGERIA—STAN* Society for Technical Analysts, Nigeria
NETHERLANDS—DCTA Dutch Commission of Technical Analysis
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
PAKISTAN—STAP* Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan www.stap.com.pk/index.html
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SAUDI ARABIA—SSTA* Saudi Society of Technical Analysts www.saudi-sta.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.org

President Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D. (SAMT)Email: rolf.wetzer@ifta.org* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule
IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficientand cost-effective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
September Issue

Education articles: August 15—send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: September 1—send submissions to admin@ifta.org

December Issue

Education articles: November 15

All other content: December 1

March Issue

Education articles: February 15

All other content: March 1

June Issue

Education articles: May 15

All other content: June 1

For more information and to advertise,
visit our website http://www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

Vice-President—the Americas William Chin, MBA (CSTA)
Email: wchin@e3m.com
Vice-President—Asia Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CFTe, FRM, CMA, CMT (NTAA)
Email: ahomma.nettai@gmail.com
Vice-President—Europe Deborah Owen, FSTA, CFTe (STA)
Email: editor@irc100.com
Vice-President—Middle East, Africa Mohamed Ashraf Mohfauz, MFTA, CFTe, CETA (ESTA)
Email: mohamed.ashraf.esta@gmail.com
Treasurer Ralph Böckel, CFA
Email: ralph.bockel@freenet.de
Education Director Saleh Nasser, CMT (ESTA)
Email: snasser@link.net
Accreditation Director Roberto Vargas, CFTe (TSAASF)
Email: roberto.vargasr@ifta.org
Marketing Director Dan Valcu, CFTe (AATROM)
Email: ta@educofin.com
Secretary Maurizio Milano (SIAT)
Email: maurizio_milano@libero.it
Development Director Robert Grigg (ATAA)
Email: robert.grigg@ifta.org
Conference Director Roman Bogomazov (TSAASF)
Email: roman.bogomazov@ifta.org
Journal Director Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT)Email: aurelia.gerber@ifta.org
Website Content Director Akihiro Niimi, MFTA (NTAA)
Email: niimia@aifaminc.com
Membership Director David Furcajg, CFTe, MFTA (AFATE)
Email: dfurcajg@3rdwaveconsult.com

STAFF
Executive Director Beth W. Palys, FASAE, CAE
Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Senior Graphic Designer Jon BenjaminAccounting Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org