2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE

President’s Report to Colleagues

1

President’s Report to Colleagues

3

Calendar-at-a-Glance

42018 Lifetime Achievement Awardee:
Ir. Abdul Wahid Bin Jantan

Education Lounge
5

Thoughts About Elliott Wave's
Triangles and Volume

6

Qualitative Approach in Entering andExiting the Automated Trading Market

10 Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With
Tony Plummer
17 Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA
Board Members
19 Welcome Interim IFTA Board Member
19 Congratulations New CFTes!
21 Member News
22 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
22 IFTA Journal–2019 Now Available!
23 IFTA Update Call for Submissions and Rate
Card
26 Board of Directors

Next Issue: March 2019
Submission Deadline: February 15
Education Lounge articles: Send
submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
All other content: Send submissions toadmin@ifta.org.
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a notfor-profit professional organization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

Dear IFTA Colleagues,
A s mos t of you areaware, in October weheld our 31st Annual IFTA
Conference in Kuala

Lu m p u r, M a l ay s i a .
The conference washosted and organized by the Malaysian
Association of Technical Analysts (MATA).
With outstanding team effort, collaboration, and hard work, MATA succeeded
in delivering yet another spectacular
IFTA conference, with a brilliant list ofguest speakers, intriguing topics, excellent choice of venue, and outstandingorganization.
In recognition for their tremendous
undertaking and accomplishment thisyear, I offer a special thank you note to
the honourable YAB Tun Dr Mahathir
Mohamad; Nik Ihsan, MATA president andconference chair; Dr. Nazri Khan, MATA
chairman; Anisah Ozleen Othman, event

director; Connie Lim, marketing director;
Haji Zainal Ariffin, speakers director; andall the MATA/IFTA 2018 Team, including
Akmal, Adibah, Adiba Hanan, Ali, Daim,
Edward, Fakhrul, Farhana, Hafiz, Hani,
Husna, Izrul, Halima, Hidayat, Naim, Nora,
Joharah, Shaza, Wan Hafizuldin, and ourdear IFTA colleague, Ron William (conference co-director).
I would also like to express my personalgratitude to our IFTA and MATA colleague,
the late Abdul Wahid Jantan, may he restin peace.
IFTA’s AGM was held a day prior to theconference. Liaisons and representatives
on behalf of your societies presented andshared their reports on the annual eventsand developments of their organizations.
It is always inspiring to hear about how
innovative, developed, and capable member societies have become over the years.
I am particularly excited this year to learn

IFTA

32nd Annual Conference
5–6 October 2019
Marriott Zamalek Hotel
Cairo, Egyptof the initiatives taken by some IFTA member societies to collaborate and assist
each other on various accounts.
This year, liaisons and representatives
on behalf of your societies voted to electseven board members—five of which areserving their second terms on the board.
IFTA welcomes new colleagues Nik Ihsan(MATA) and Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D. (NTAA),
who will be serving their first terms on the
IFTA board.
Continued on page 2

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
President's Report to Colleagues continued

32nd IFTA Annual Conference (2019) NewsI am pleased to announce that our next IFTA Annual Conference will be held in Cairo,
Egypt, October 5–6, 2019, at the Marriott Zamalek Hotel. It has been 12 years since
the last IFTA Annual Conference was held in Egypt, with the conference being heldin Sharm EL Shiekh in 2007.

The conference organizing committee is already working very hard to deliver yet
another memorable conference. The committee is lining up an outstanding list ofguest speakers, including Robert Prechter, Constance Brown, Robin Griffiths, andmany more to come! On behalf of the hosting society (ESTA), I look forward to meeting you at the 32nd Annual IFTA Conference in Cairo!
Last, but not least, I would like to thank all member societies who shared updates
and news from your local societies. Sharing information, knowledge, and experienceis and will always be, in spirit, the reason why IFTA continues to exist.
Best wishes for the new year, and happy holidays to all!
Best regards,

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe MFTA
IFTA President

page 2IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 3

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of topics (e.g.,

Topic

STANZ
(New
Zealand)

Various

Epsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly meetings are free to

ATAA(Australia)

Various

Various

Varieswww.ataa.asn.au

CSTA
Chapters(Canada)Various

Various

Varieswww.csta.org

STA

VariesOne Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonVarieshttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies, money management,
psychology).

members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are not required. Visitors are welcome,first visit free.
Monthly Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for the CSTA andplan social and educational events for the area. Events include presentations by industry
professionals and technical analysis experts and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play avital role in their communities by connecting individuals and promoting technical analysis.
Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usually on the second
Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

2019

Date

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

Jan

15Monthly Meeting: 2019 Outlook Panel

STA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

Feb

12

Monthly Meeting

STA

Chaired by Tom Hicks MSTA,
panelists include Avramis
Despotis, Robin Griffiths andClement Thibault.
To be announced

6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

IFTA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org

4

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-March
release)Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 1 application deadline.
STA Diploma Exam, Part 1

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonNA

STA

NA

StayAhead Training Centre, London

10:00amhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/

12

Monthly Meeting

STA

Steven Goldstein

6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

IFTA

NA

Varies9

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 paper
submission deadline
Monthly Meeting

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonVariesSTA

To be announced

6:30pm25

STA Diploma Exam, Part 2

STA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonLondon School of Economics, London

admin@ifta.org
http://www.ifta.org
https://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

1:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/education/

25

CFTe II Examination

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; http://www.ifta.org

1

IFTA

NA

VariesVarieshttp://www.ifta.org

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

14

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II – registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website
Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline, and fees deadline
Monthly Meeting

STA

To be announced

6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonNA

NA

newsletter@ifta.org

31

IFTA Journal Call for Papers submissions deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

28
Mar

April

May

2

Continued on page 4

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 4

Calendar continued

2019

Date
June

Jul

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Meeting

STA

To be announced

6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

14-16

ATAA Annual Conference

ATAA

VariesOne Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
LondonPark Royal Hotel, Darling Harbour, Sydney,
AU
StayAhead Training Centre, London

Daily
program
6:30pmwww.ataa.asn.au

6:30pmhttps://www.sta-uk.org/resources/
meetings-events/

NA

www.ifta.org

11

1

STA Diploma Exam, Part 1

STA

NA

9

STA Summer Party

STA

NA

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path, Session 2 application deadline
IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-September
release)Certified Financial Technician (CFTe II) Examination

IFTA

NA

One Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall, 1 Moorgate Place,
London
NA

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org

IFTA

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org; www.ifta.org

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application,
outline and fees deadline
IFTA 32nd Annual Conference: History Speaks

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

IFTA &
Hosted by
ESTA
IFTA

TBA

Marriott Zamalek Hotel, Cairo, Egypt

VariesNA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

http://www.ifta.org/publications/journal/

Aug

15

Oct

TBA
2
5–6

Nov

15

Dec

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles and newcontent (mid-December release)
IFTA Journal Web publication

Congratulations 2018 Lifetime Achievement Awardee:
Ir. Abdul Wahid Bin Jantan
This year’s IFTA Lifetime Achievement Award went to Ir. Abdul Wahid Bin Jantan, posthumously. Details about Abdul’s work and contribution to technical analysis can befound in IFTA’s September 2018 newsletter.

About the Award

The Lifetime Achievement Award honors the career achievements of a technical analysis
practitioner who has made extraordinary contributions to the field of technical analysis.
The recipient will exemplify and promote the mission of IFTA through education andresearch. The honor will be considered for a technician who has demonstrated thehighest standards of personal and professional conduct and whom his/her peers andthe investment community at large hold in great regard.

Prior recipients:
2017
2015
2014
2013

Sergio Paolino
John A. Bollinger
John J. Murphy
Dr. Henry O. Pruden

https://www.sta-uk.org/education/

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

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Education Lounge

Thoughts About Elliott Wave's Triangles and Volume
By El-Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe

Elliott Wave's Triangles—When a corrective wave corrects a motive wave, it retraces only part of it; it never canretrace the whole motive wave. It is the relationship between the weak and the strong.
—When a motive wave corrects a corrective wave, it always retraces all the corrective
wave length and usually retraces more than of all the length of the corrective wave. It
is the relationship between the strong and the weak.
—When a corrective wave corrects another corrective wave, it usually retraces thewhole corrective wave length and sometimes retraces more than the whole length ora little less. It is the equal relationship between two rivals.

there is enough self-fall of the shares to give an indication of the sale. But I think thatthe lack of volume associated with the downward movement also has a convergence ofsignificance associated with upward movement; high volume with falling prices meansthat there is a buyer who fought several times to take a place but failed in overcoming
the sellers. The drop in prices without a drop in volume means that the buyers did not
yet enter the battlefield to face the sellers, leaving the land empty. They acquire spaces
without resistance, and the battle has not yet begun. Each of them retains its strength
for the next battle in a lower price zone.

Basically, triangles are kind of flats that had been extended in time. If we accept thisconcept, we must accept some irregular retraces between some of the five sides of thetriangle. Let's look at the next example for DJI.

VolumeIn the stock market, volume is an important factor in confirming price action, whether it
is bullish or bearish, and usually we don't adopt the upward movement if it is not supported by strong volume. We consider volume to be a basic condition to confirm thevalidity of it, but we give this condition up in the case of downward movement, where
We believe that the DJI has completed its fourth wave as a symmetrical triangle, and the wave C of that
triangle has retraced the whole length of wave B. The beginning of wave B was at 23,360 points, and wave
C ended at 23,344 points, 16 points below the start of wave B.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

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Education Lounge

Qualitative Approach in Entering and Exiting
the Automated Trading Market
By Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu, Ph.D.

Introduction and Background

It is popularly known in the market of securities trading that the skills of risk management
in asset investment is a major priority to any investor or trader. Historically, the exchange
market began as a floor-based enterprise, with the first institutionalized exchange market
recorded in the late 1600s as the “Dojima Rice Exchange” at Osaka, Japan, with thesimilar floor-based trading recounted on the continent of Europe after that. Later, inthe early 1970s, there was an the National Association of Securities Dealers automatedquotation system emerged and was established in the United States as a technological advanced stage in floor-based trading. Since the establishment of NASDAQ, there
has been a proliferation of automated trading systems. As Harris (2003) argued, in theexistence of NASDAQ, it has overtaken the NYSE in both shares and dollar volumetransaction. As Sinha et al. (2006) posited, automated trading systems performs better than floor-based trading systems in terms of speed, accessibility, convenience, andcosts, including setup labour, and communications. It was finally concluded that the
automated market is superior at providing audit trails. Therefore, the content of this article
is skewed in favour of automated trading, with a critical focus on qualitative approachin entering and exiting the market as a component of risk management methodology.
In the school of Investment Trading, the “Beta-return” of an asset in comparison to thegeneral market of trades defines the liquidity rate of such an asset, which outlines thedegree of risk inherent in such assets and its related instruments. With the above definition describing the barometer of measuring the risk level of a market and its assets, it
has theoretically become obvious that among the four major instruments of trade thatcompose the investment banking industry—which are forex, commodity, stocks, andbonds—the forex trading is historically proven to be the highest risk among the four
designated components. Hence, it requires a stringent risk management approach as
the micro-objective this article seeks to explore within the framework of “entering” and“existing” from the trading room as a trader.

Theory and Empirical Analysis

The question is asked, how could a trader qualitatively “enter” and “exit” the forex
market as a calculated strategy of risk management.
The article subscribes to two methodical approaches, quite relevant for modern automated trading; however, it excludes the algorithmic trading of computers in an elaborative form as a knowledge system of its kind in the technical analytical world. These two
methodical approaches are classified herein as:i.
Fundamental Approachii.
Technical Approach
Fundamental Approach
For the trader to trade currencies across the four major regional trading markets, Table
X1 below outlines the prominent global market as trading blocs. It requires the trader tofundamentally understand the behaviour of currency prices as a trend within 24 hoursof trades, across the global market, when all other factors are held in ceteris paribus.
No.

Regions

Markets

1.

Pacific

Sydney/Wellington

2.

Asia

Tokyo/Japan3.

EuropeLondon/Frankfurt

4.

America

New York/Chicago

TABLE X1. Prominent global market as trading blocs. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

It is empirically observed that each of the designated markets has its domicile currency
for trade, simultaneously with convertible currencies in such a market. And further
empirically observed, the domicile currency of each market rises gradually in pricewhen the market opens. Which is spotted with a highest price of the currency, assumed

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

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Qualitative Approach in Entering and Exiting the Automated Trading Market continued

to be the central trading currency of that moment, when the transactional momentumof the market is at the apex around 4 to 4.5 hours after the opening of the market, andfinally declines in price-value as the market draws to the closing time, with Figure A1
below expressing the behavioural nature of currency in their domicile market, withrespect to time.

Education Lounge
the overlapping nature of the four described regional markets at the global arena ofinvestment, which affects the currency price movement, building up nominal value
through “interest” rising point of such labeled currencies.

FIGURE A2. Trading across the four major regional markets of the globe. Senzu, T. E. (2018); panel description of overlapping regional markets

FIGURE A1. Panel model of how the convertible currency behaves in its domicile market when all observed
factors are spotted of consistency or in constants. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

Trading Market

Eastern
Open-timeStandard Time
Close-timeGreenwich
Open-time

Mean Time
Close-time

Sydney/Wellington

5:00pm2:00am

10:00pm

7:00amTokyo/Japan

7:00pm

4:00am

12:00am

9:00amLondon/Frankfurt

3:00am

12:00pm

8:00am

5:00pmNew York/Chicago

8:00am

5:00pm1:00pm

10:00pm

TABLE X2. Varied international trading market and its corresponding time. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

To appreciate the Table X2 analysis of market and time zone effects on the behaviourof convertible currencies at their domicile market, a new figure called A2 will zone out

Looking at Figs. A1 and A2 and Tab. X2, it became evident that every regional market
operates actively, within nine working hours. And generally, the price interest point of
the convertible currency that dominates any such regional market or acts as the central
trading currency in such market is at the peak of value accumulation, or in a strong
bullish trend, when such a regional market is in a trading trail to the 4th hour, during
the opening hour of the market, with such a convertible-currency observed to be in a
steady rise in price, with the condition that the news feed (economic-data-supply) is
absolutely “constant” to the market.
Technical Approach
Knowing how to “enter” and “exit” the market technically requires a deep knowledge on
the following sub-approaches, which are (A) Volume Analysis and (B) Indicator Analysis;
Volume Analysis was theoretically discussed in the previous edition of the IFTA Update(Senzu [2018] Volume 25, issue 2: pp.7–10). Therefore, under this theme, Indicator
Analysis will be the subject for diagnostics. An [Indicator] as a tool is arguably definedas, “an essential calculation, based on price of securities, measuring factors such as

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
Qualitative Approach in Entering and Exiting the Automated Trading Market continued

page 8

Education Loungemoney flow, trends, volatility and momentum of the market, with a priority to gain further
insight into the supply and demand of securities. [Trend] could equally be defined as “astatistical technique for extracting an underlying pattern of behaviours in a time seriesof trading instrument, which could otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden bynoise.” Therefore, “trend indicator” has become a required tool very relevant in indicating entering and exiting points of the market. With most acknowledged trend-indicator
tools observed to be efficient and effective per the researcher, empirical records include:a.

Parabolic Stop and Reversalb.

Average Directional Movement Indexc.

Bollinger Bandsd.

Standard Deviatione.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

FIGURE Y2. Average Directional Movement Index as a trend indicator. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

The blue signal is the ADX line, while the gold signal is DX+ and the red is DX-. The
vertical light blue lines are positioned at the cardinal intersection point of the gold andthe red signal, about four pillars evidenced graphically. Observe the reaction of thesignals after their intersection point; they diverge, signifying a strong trend, either bullish or bearish. Such an intersectional point defines the “entering” and “exiting” point of
the market of currency USD/CAD.

FIGURE Y3. Bollinger Bands as a trend indicator. Senzu, T. E., (2018)

FIGURE Y1. Parabolic-SAR as a trend indicator. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

The blue arrows indicate “entering” as well as “exiting” points of the assets in trade.
The blue dotted lines are the parabolic SAR indicators.

The blue arrows indicate points in the market for “entering” and “exiting”—as a trader,either a bullish trend, when the candlesticks are above the middle band, or bearish
trend, when the candlesticks are below the middle band of the Gold trade.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

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Education Lounge

Qualitative Approach in Entering and Exiting the Automated Trading Market continued

Conclusion

The spirit of this article seeks to guide the advanced students in automated trading,swimming in volumes of literature governed by complexities of theories in the school ofrisk management, under the perimeters of “entering” and “exiting” the market, to resort
to this paper as a fundamental theoretical guide in qualitative approach in entering andexiting the market, especially with forex trading.

References[I] Harris, L., (2003) Trading and Exchanges: Market microstructure for practitioners,
Oxford University Press. p. 543

FIGURE Y4. Standard Deviation Indicator Trend. Senzu, T.E., (2018)[II] Senzu, T. E., (2018) Volume as a technical compass for market analysis and forecasting. IFTA Update. Vol. 25, Issue 3, p. 7–10

The blue arrows located in strategic positions of the graph indicate the “entering” and“exiting” points of the market. According to standard deviation signal rule, a big pricemove signal is followed by a decrease in volatility, meaning a small price move signal.

[III] Sinha, A., Ferreira, J.E., and Green, R., (2006) Trading room educational programme:
Issues and recommendations. Journal of Business & Economics Research. Vol.4, Issue 3.
Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu, Ph.D.
Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu, Ph.D., is a professor of economics
and investment banking with Frederic Bastiat Institute and University
College of Management Studies, Ghana. He is adjunct professor atCape Coast Technical University, with a deep theoretical interest ininvestment banking focused on the area of technical analytics in theuse of indicator efficiency and effectiveness examinations. He can be reached at
Tsenzu@fbiresearchedu.org.

FIGURE Y5. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Senzu, T. E. (2018)

The blue arrows indicate the most reliable sections in the “entering” and “exiting” of themarket. Appreciating the relevant task played by the following signals as confirmatory
and emphasized signals in the Ichimoku indicator, as in Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen, Chickou
Span, Senkou Span A, and that of Senkou Span B.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

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Education Lounge

Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With Tony Plummer
By Ron William, CFTe, MSTA
Tony Plummer has worked and traded in financial markets since
1976, concentrating primarily on bonds and currencies. He now
specializes in strategic economic and financial market
analysis.
Tony is a fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts in the UK,
and is a former director of Hambros Bank Ltd, Hambros FundManagement PLC, Rhombus Research Ltd, and Helmsman
Economics Ltd. He was also, until recently, a visiting professorial fellow in the Economics
Department at Queen Mary, University of London.
Tony is the author of three books. First, "Forecasting Financial Markets" (1989-2010),
which describes the influence of crowd psychology on economic activity and financial
market price behaviour. This book is in its 6th edition. Second, "The Law of Vibration:
the Revelation of William D. Gann" (2013), which describes the role of an archetypal
learning pattern in the process of evolution. This pattern was known about in antiquity.
Third, "The Life Cycle Hypothesis" (2018), which shows how the evolution of individualand collective behaviour is reflected in the presence of a predictable life cycle.
Tony has a master’s degree in economics from the London School of Economics and an
honours degree in economics from the University of Kent. He has a four-year training
in Core Process Psychotherapy and is a qualified NLP practitioner.
Ron William (RW): What is the “Law of Vibration” and what are its implications forbehavioural patterns in the financial markets? (Please include reference to yourthree-phase learning pattern).
Tony Plummer (TP): The Law of Vibration asserts that (1) everything is energy, that (2)this energy can be defined by vibration, and that (3) the pattern of vibration is not random. At the human level, the vibrational pattern involves learning. An initial information
shock creates a reaction, has to be absorbed, and is then applied. The reaction andabsorption phases constitute the learning, and they are more or less complete once

there is some sort of external signal. The Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trumpsignalled the end of collective learning after the 2008–2009 financial crisis.
RW: Why do you suppose William Gann went to such extraordinary lengths toconceal the pattern of vibration?
TP: It is difficult now to know precisely why Mr. Gann concealed the pattern of vibration. He did so in both of his major books: "The Tunnel Thru The Air" and "The Magic
Word." The pattern has a history: I have found it in St. Matthew's Gospel in the form of
the Sign of the Prophet Jonah. So it has religious connotations that date back 2,000
years. It probably dates back even further. It is likely that Mr Gann was restricted byprevailing religious conventions, which did not accept that humankind is subject toforces beyond its control.
The Life Cycle Profile From William Gann's "The Tunnel Thru The Air"IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With Tony Plummer

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Education Lounge

RW: Regarding the central (life cycle) pattern of vibration, which is more important:
the timing of the turning points or the amplitude of the peaks and troughs?
TP: The central pulse is a pressure pattern, not a mechanistic pattern. It contains athree-phase cycle rhythm, whereby turning points at the end-cycle lows are predictable.
However, turning points at the intra-cycle highs are less regular. This includes amplitude.

RW: Why do you think mainstream “group think,” such as in academia and amongst
policymakers, favour a world of fixed cycles, with mechanical outcomes?
TP: Fixed cycles are favoured because (a) the true profile of cycles is not yet recognised,and (b) fixed cycles assist in predicting the future. The fact that such predictions havenot been accurate implies that there are other factors at work.

RW: According to your work, cycles are not fixed sine waves. What is your reasoning
for this phenomenon?
TP: Each of the three cycles contained in the rhythm of evolution exhibits an intra-cycle
downswing. Two of these are distinct energy gaps. Both are associated with sudden
financial catastrophes. However, the first interrupts progress because market participants have become too enthusiastic about the future; the second ends a specific era ofprogress. In other words, evolution has a distinct profile. This profile does not consistof sine waves.

RW: Can a cycle be interrupted by new innovations or exogenous shocks?
TP: The simple answer is "yes." However, the innovation/shock must have an impact oncollective attitudes and behaviour. In my opinion, the effects are cumulative, so interruptions are not always obvious.

“…evolution has a distinct profile. This profile does notconsist of sine waves.”
Momentum of the Life Cycle

RW: To what degree are cycles deterministic? Does awareness of the cycle offer an
opportunity to change its path?
TP: The cycles incorporated into the life cycle pattern are not deterministic; they indicate
the direction of pressure and therefore the potential for change. I suspect that there are
two types of cycles: the one related to evolution (i.e., the life cycle), and the other related
to external planetary rhythms. Sometimes the two types of cycle coincide; sometimes
they don't. So it is often difficult to tell which influence is operating. I do not think thata cycle can be changed in terms of major turning points, although its amplitude may
be if it is understood.

“The cycles incorporated into the life cycle pattern are notdeterministic; they indicate the direction of pressure andtherefore the potential for change.”
RW: What is the relevance of the human life cycle, and how did it influence the natureof your research?
TP: The idea of an identifiable human life cycle was central to the development of thelife cycle hypothesis. The pattern explains the ages at which changes should occur, it
describes the switch from external structure to internal process, and it identifies the very
real presence of a mid-life change. A felt shift in the middle of a human life facilitates areorientation from physical structures to internal processes. The future of humankind
depends on our ability to recognise and adapt to this switch.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With Tony Plummer

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continued

Education Lounge
form of energy gap, which the Fed has been trying to offset. Hence, the post-Trump“recovery.” However, I suspect that reality will become apparent when the economy
enters its own energy gap in 2020 (give or take). This is when the imbalance between
monetary policy and economic activity will become obvious.
RW: How does the energy gap risk scenario translate onto U.S. 10-year notes? Whatdo you think of the yield spike hypothesis, led by event risk such as a liquidity crunchor defaults?
TP: 10-year T-Note prices have already signalled a bear phase but are oversold andseem likely to rally. The problem is that the end-of-era energy gap still lies ahead. I
suspect that this gap will signal both resurgent inflation and credit defaults.

“I suspect that this gap will signal both resurgent inflationand credit defaults.”
RW: How important is the application of a cycle hierarchy and timing confluence
within your analysis?
TP: I am sure that it is very important, but I am still researching the concepts.
Consequently, I don't yet have a clear answer. It is quite obvious, however, that each“shock” creates a new set of cycles. So, they almost certainly coexist. The term 'fractal'
can be used.
RW: What broader technical analysis framework do you use alongside cycles, andhow does it improve your edge?
TP: I am a great fan of the Golden Ratio (38.2:61.8) and the Octave Ratio (50:100) in
defining support and resistance levels. The important distinction is that the Golden Ratio
defines boundaries between a correction and a trend, and the Octave Ratio defines
critical points of interruption. These are still not widely understood (or indeed used),but Mr Gann pointed the way forward.
RW: Looking at the markets, describe what you mean about an “energy gap,” andwhat is the risk scenario for the U.S. equity markets from 2020 onwards?
TP: An energy gap is the removal of trend energy. This removal occurs for evolutionary
purposes and is difficult to explain in terms of forces such as government intervention orchanges in consumer psychology. U.S. equity markets, for example, are already in some

RW: Does Gold continue to serve as a viable crisis-hedge? If so, how do you
reconcile Gold’s perverse unwind during the 2008 GFC?
TP: At the moment, the most important distinction for gold is that between deflationand inflation. The life cycle pattern suggests that the 2008-09 GFC was the end of adisinflationary era – that is, behaviour became explicitly deflationary. When genuine

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With Tony Plummer

page 13
continued

inflation becomes apparent, gold will retrace more than 38.2% of the drop since the2011 high. It hasn't yet done so, but I think that it will.
RW: What is the likely fate of the USD, dead or alive? How much risk is there of a USD
collapse that would further pressure the environment?
TP: The life cycle pattern concentrates on longer-term perspective rather than on
short-term timings. So, a trend rally in gold–when it happens—is likely to be associatedwith a collapse of the U.S. dollar. Most commodities are priced in dollars, and a lot ofinternational borrowing is done in dollars. So a weak dollar will have profound knock-on
effects. This is the big story for the future.

Education Lounge
its last phase of its application to individuals and is signalling that the second half ofthe next decade will not have any obvious new products for us. I do not yet know what
this means, but it hints at a very significant switch in our attitudes and behaviours. In
the meantime, I think that the rise of so-called “populism” is a sign of the change. It is
not the end in itself, just a stepping stone; but it is very significant.

“the rise of so-called 'populism' is a sign of the change. It
is not the end in itself, just a stepping stone; but it is verysignificant.”

TP: The dollar has for some time been responding very well to technical considerations.
So I am currently bullish about its near-term prospects. Specifically, DXY stopped fallingat a 50% retracement of the 2011–2017 advance (the Octave Ratio) and has retraced
more than 38.2% of the fall from the January 2017 high (the Golden Ratio). The point isthat it is currently being supported by positive fundamentals. I am obviously concerned
about what will happen when the rally finally stops.

RW: Why do you feel it is important for us to raise awareness about these long-term
cyclical roadmaps, particularly for the newer generations?
TP: The roadmap incorporates the idea of evolution. So we have to be aware thatevolution is patterned and purposeful and is not random. In recent years, Keynesian
economics has encouraged us to ignore evolution. Consequently, it is widely assumed
that we are victims of circumstances rather than responsible and self-reliant individuals,
and that governments will look after us. To put it crudely, the shift that is taking placeis from behaviour based on crowd beliefs to co-operation between individuals. Whenit becomes obvious that governments cannot do everything, then we will need to beopen to the idea that we are evolving. Hence the roadmap.

RW: The application of the central pattern to Chinese equities (figure 15-3 in yourbook) suggests that, once the current corrective phase is complete, Chinese equities
will embark on a multi-year rally. Is that a fair interpretation?

RW: Although the long-term U.S. equity life cycle is in its second (and final) energy
gap, the S&P has continued to rise. So there is a divergence. How do you explain
this?

TP: Yes. The big global switch is from West to East. I have long argued that the Chineseexperience is now similar in many ways to the situation in the U.S. in the 1930s, after
the devastation of the Wall Street Crash. Chinese equities and the Chinese economy
are being dragged away from their old way of doing things.

TP: The life cycle pattern is “fractal,” so there are other factors at work. I suspect thatthe divergence is, in itself, part of a much broader energy gap, and that it is a warningthat something is seriously wrong. Nevertheless, it needs to be emphasised that thisis the first time that anything like this has appeared in the data. It may therefore be
relevant that a life cycle has been operating since the 1970s, which relates to inflation.

RW: The USD has recently pushed to new multi-month highs and is trading around its
10-year trend mean. What does your technical analysis suggest about its imminent
outlook?

RW: Your innovation life cycle work describes a long-term socioeconomic rotationfrom a collective-based system to one that revolves around the individual. What are
the implications? Is this, in part, a contributor to the so-called rise of populism?
TP: The new product innovation cycle is very clear. It has moved comprehensively fromexternal structure to internal process. This implies a switch from society to the individual
and has implications both for the economy and for tax revenues. The cycle itself is in

It already suggests that the 2000–2009 period oversaw a shift from inflation expectations based on economic activity to inflation expectations related to monetary profligacy.
This latter is not yet apparent. However, when the U.S. equity life cycle is deflated bycommodity prices, it is clear that the peak in the equity market's momentum occurredin 2014/2016. So the life cycle “worked” on the momentum index.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4
Halkin Masterclass: An Interview With Tony Plummer

page 14
continued“…when the U.S. equity life cycle is deflated by commodity
prices, it is clear that the peak in the equity market's
momentum occurred in 2014/2016. So the life cycle'worked' on the momentum index.”

RW: The UK is in a period of great uncertainty, given Brexit and a government
without a clear majority. Can the life cycle pattern provide us with any additional
information about what might happen?
TP: Yes it can, although there will always be qualifications. The UK and other countries
in the Western world have entered a major cultural shift. Specifically, Brexit and Donald
Trump signalled the onset of a Transition Cycle, which will haul our intellectual beliefs
away from those that have prevailed since (roughly) 1970. The FT All Share index is on
the verge of an energy gap, just like the U.S.
But, unlike in the U.S., the recent upside has been limited by concern over Brexit itself.
Nevertheless, the outcome of negotiations with the EU, and the ability to get any agreement through Parliament, are almost secondary to the idea that change is occurring.

Education Lounge
After all, Brexit is only a more obvious form of the anti-establishment forces with which
the EU has to deal. Interestingly, Sterling looks like it will shortly embark on a major
rally. This will, however, only be part of the Transition Cycle that was initiated by the
2008–2009 crisis. So, the rally will be followed by a sharp fall.

Tony Plummer book signing during Halkin’s Inaugural
Masterclass.

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IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 17Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA Board Members(Term October 2018–October 2021)
Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe, MFTA

Thomas Hicks, MSTA

Mohamed El Saiid, CFTe,
MFTA, is currently an
executive director andhead of the technicalanalysis department for
HC Brokerage (HCB),
Cairo, Egypt. He started
his career working for
Momentum Wavers, Ltd., a Middle East
technical analysis firm (2001–2004). He
joined HCB as an associate/lead technicalanalyst (2004–2006) and later joined
Unifund, a Geneva-based global private
fund (2006–2007) as a chief technicalstrategist/co-fund manager to the Middle
East investments. Mohamed holds an
MBA in finance and is currently the president of IFTA as well as a director of theEgyptian Society for Technical Analysts(ESTA). Mohamed previously held several
other positions, including chairman of
ESTA and ESTA head of the Education
Committee. Mohamed has authored several TA-related articles and developed
several indicators, including the Volatility‐
Based Envelopes (VBE), the Implied
Volatility Projection Range (IVPR), andRelative Performance Candlestick Charts(RPCC).

Thomas Hicks, MSTA, isa co-founder and trader
at IFTM Capital, a systematic trading business
implementing technicalanalysis. He started trading at Standard Bank,
where for five years he
ran the G7 desk focusing on fixed income
and then trading emerging market rates
and options. It was here that he starting
looking at technical analysis with systematic trading and afterwards, gained the
MSTA diploma. He actively used the qualification to provide advice to clients as an
options broker at a number of brokeragefirms. Tom’s background is in engineering,and he holds a degree in systems engineering (MEng) from Warwick University.
Tom is a member of the board of directorsof the Society of Technical Analysts (STA).

ESTA (Egypt)

STA (UK)

Nik Mohd Ihsan Bin Raja
Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe

MATA (Malaysia)
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah,
MSTA (Distinction), CFTe,
is a chartist for research
at Maybank Investment
Bank Behad. He is
C e r t i f i e d Te c h n i c a l
Analyst and has beenr e co g n ize d b y b o t hUnited Kingdom Society of TechnicalAnalysts (UK STA) and IFTA. As an active
speaker and trainer of technical analysis,
he often shares his insight with corporate
and individual investors at seminars aswell as reaches the public through social
media and the local print media. To date,he has trained and taught over 3,500 individuals from various backgrounds, including financial market professionals. Nik
Ihsan is among a very small number in theworld who has acquired the highest pedigree of Distinction for the MSTA programand currently permanently lectures for the
MSTA Diploma Program in collaboration
with PRIBUMI-MATA and UK STA. He iscurrently the president of the Malaysian
Association of Technical Analysts (MATA).

Saleh Nasser, CMT, CFTE
ESTA (Egypt)

Saleh Nasser, CMT, CFTe,is currently the chief
technical strategist of
Pioneers Holding. Prior
to joining Pioneers, Saleh
was the executive director and the chief technical strategist of Pharos
Holding from 2009 until May 2017.
Saleh was also the chief technical strategist of CIBC from 2001 until 2009, and he
was a member of the CI Capital investment committee. He worked as a chief
technical analyst in Flemings CIIC from2000 until 2001.
Saleh has served on the board of directors of IFTA for many years, and he served
as IFTA’s secretary general and head ofeducation. He worked on a committeethat was responsible for updating IFTA’s
bylaws. He is the originator of the CETA
Professional Program, sponsored by the
Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts—
one of few international degrees accredited by IFTA as equivalent to the CFTe.
Saleh was a speaker at the 2003 IFTA
Annual Conference held in Washington,
D.C., where he introduced his new

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 18

Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA Board Members continued

indicator (Deviation Oscillator). He wasalso a speaker at the 2016 IFTA Annual
Conference held in Sidney, Australia.
Saleh was also invited as a speaker andkeynote speaker at many other seminars
and conferences.

Karin Roller, CFTe

VTAD (Germany)
Karin Roller, CFTe, is anindependent trader andtrader coach. She holds
the German Stock Broker
license and worked at
the stock exchange in
Stuttgart at the Trading
Surveillance. She is aboard member of the German Associationof Technical Analysts (www.vtad.de) andis in charge of the chapter in Stuttgart.
Karin also has authored several books
about technical analysis, including
Ichimoku Trading, Set G oals wit h
Fibonacci and the German Trading für
Dummies. Karin writes stock analysis andarticles for leading financial newspapers.
She runs seminars and workshops on
technical analysis for private and institutional Investors, including preparing seminars for the CFTe exams. Karin holds a
degree in biology from the University
Hohenheim/Stuttgart.

Ron William, CFTe, MSTA

SAMT (Switzerland)
Ron William, CFTe, MSTA,
is an accomplished market strategist, educator,
and trader with 17 yearsof f inancial indus tr y
experience working forleading economic
research and institutionalfirms and producing macro research andtrading strategies. He specializes inmacro, semi-discretionary analysis, driven
by c ycl e s a n d p ro p r iet a r y t i m i n gmodels.
Ron also serves as an active trading mentor specializing in trading psychology,
using the NLP model, and Van Tharp
Peak Performance™. Previously, Ron wasa senior tactical and market timing strategist at the ECU Group, a global macro
investment and advisory firm. He was partof the Multi-Asset Research and Advisory
Team headed by Robin Griffiths, applying
his signature “Roadmap” cycle model.
Ron’s work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA),
acquired global industry recognition
with the 2014/2013 Finalist Award for“Best Independent Research House
for FX” and the 2012 Finalist Award for“Best Technical Analyst of the Year.” His
market insights are featured regularly

across notable industry publications andfinancial media programs, most recently
featuring U.S. presidential election cycle
analysis, GBP/USD Brexit impact, andEUR/USD parity risk.
Ron dedicated four years to working at
Bloomberg L.P. as a senior technical analyst specialist, responsible for training/
consultation across the EMEA region, andcontributed to the development of charting strategies and the technical analysis
platform of the Bloomberg Professional
Service™.
Ron is a board member of IFTA, vice president and head of the Geneva Chapterof the Swiss Association of Market
Technicians (SAMT), and honorary member of the Egyptian Society of TechnicalAnalysts (ESTA). He is also co-founder of
the SAMT CFTe Immersion Course and
SAMT Journal.

Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D.
NTAA (Japan)

Since 2007, Hiwon Yoon,
Ph.D., has been president of CMD Laboratory
Inc. He manages the firmand creates models forfinancial markets. He also
serves as a councilor of
the Nippon TechnicalAnalysts Association (NTAA).

From 2000 to 2007, he was director of
CMD Research Ltd., where he managed
the firm and analyzed financial markets.
From 1996 to 1998, he was a trader ofJapanese stock for Salomon Smith Barney(Japan), where he traded a portfolio ofJapanese stock and derivatives. From1993 to 1996, he worked in sales of Asianstocks for Salomon Brothers Asia Ltd.
(Japan), marketing Asian products, suchas stocks and derivatives. From 1992 to
1993, Hiwon was a trader of Asian stocks
for Salomon Brothers Hong Kong Ltd(Hong Kong). In this position, he managed
arbitrage positions for Asian stocks andderivatives. From 1989 to 1991, he was atrader of Japanese stocks for Salomon
Brothers Asia Ltd (Japan), where he traded
Japanese stock and derivatives.
Hiwon has a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Keio University in Japan. In
1989, he received his M.S. in hydrodynamics from Keio University in Japan. He has
a number of publications, presentations,and patents.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

Welcome Interim IFTA
Board Member(Term December 2018–
October 2019)
Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe
STA (UK)

Clive Lambert’s is the founder and director of FuturesTechs, one of the UK’s leading independent technical analysis providers. The company is a five-time
w inner a t t he Te chnic al A nal y s t
Magazine Awards, most recently winning
the “Best Commodities, Energy andPower Research” category in 2015.

Clive has served on the STA board and has been a regular conference speaker and a lecturer on STA courses
for many years. He is able to offer STA diploma course
students not only in-depth knowledge of a wide range oftechnical analysis tools, but also the benefit of his many
years of experience as a broker and trader before setting up his own company. Clive has been writing technical analysis reports for his clients for over 15 years, andhis book Candlestick Charts: An Introduction to using
Candlestick Charts is on the STA reading list.

page 19

Congratulations New CFTes!
Abdalla Farrag Abdalla (ESTA)
Julieana Amburayan (STA)
Norhaisinah Binti Asmoni (MATA)
Sherif Hamdy Ahmed Abdel Aziz
(ESTA)
Mohamad Ali Fudin B Abdul Hamid(MATA)
Azmir Bin Abdullah (MATA)
Ibnu Khaldoon Bin Ahmad Zakuan(MATA)
Muhammad Izzat Asri Bin Azmi
(MATA)
Che Muhammad Faiz Bin Che
Mohd Zaimi (MATA)
Faiz Ikmal Bin Ismail (MATA)
Mohamad Faidzal Bin Kamaruddin(MATA)
Mohd Azhar Basri Bin M Ami(MATA)
Ahmad Lutfi Bin Mahmud (MATA)
Mohd Hasan Basri Bin Manan(MATA)
Mohd Ruzaidi Bin Sadikin (STA)
Muhammad Yahya Bin Shafee(MATA)
Wan Saiful Azry Bin Wan Azmy
(MATA)
Ahmad Danial Bin Zainudin (MATA)
Raihan Binti Rahim (MATA)
Nor Faizura Binti Roslan (MATA)
Constance Brown (AAPTA)
Ian Daniel Brown
Fred Chai Meng Foong (STA)
James Chen

Gary Chew Kiew Seng (STA)
Seif El Din Hassan El Degwi (ESTA)
Samar Ahmed Ameen El Meshad(ESTA)
Akram Allah Mohamed Adel El
Sherbini (ESTA)
Ahmed Hussein Mahmoud
EL-Kotby (ESTA)
Haythem Ahmed El-sayed (ESTA)
Essam Mohamed Hassanein Elabd(ESTA)
Adham Ahmed Fouad Gamal Eldin(ESTA)
Yasser Abdalla Elgezeiry (ESTA)
Ahmed Ramy Mustafa Elgharbawy(ESTA)
Waleed Yousry Abdelhalim
Abdelhalim Elzeiny (ESTA)
Marina Adel Fouad (ESTA)
Jun Anthony Gonzaga Garcia
Bassem Mostafa Ghanima (ESTA)
Vinay Goenka (ATMA)
Hamdi B Hamzah (MATA)
Nicholas P. Harrell
Salah Mohamed Hassan Ibrahim(ESTA)
Rosmera Ismail (MATA)
Kalwant Singh Karnail Singh (STA)
Ahmed Magdy Khalil (ESTA)
Cheow Poh Khaw
Steven Hendrik Kok
Abhitharan KP (ATMA)
Hesham Mohammed Mansy (ESTA)

Ahmed Kamal Ahmed Mohamed(ESTA)
Basem Mohamed Nageeb
Mohamed (ESTA)
Eslam Mohamed Elewa Mohamed(ESTA)
Mohamed Freag Mohamed (ESTA)
Mohammed Faisal Bin Mohd Shokri(MATA)
Kamarul Nizam B Muhammad(MATA)
Mohamed Ahmed Abdel Naser(ESTA)
Povilas Norbutas
Azlisham Bin Othman (MATA)
Mohamed Ahmed Ragaa (ESTA)
Anthony Jonathan Riachi (STA)
Nattanont Rojviroj
David Maged Saad (ESTA)
Nora Haslezan Binti Samsi (MATA)
Montasser Ibrahem Madboly Sayed(ESTA)
Mina Rafik Wadee Selim (ESTA)
Mostafa Sulaymaan Sayed
Sulaymaan (ESTA)
Apiwat Tavesirivate
Lee Tiong Sin (STA)
Peter Michael Torabkhan
Oscar López Vera (AEAT)
Mina Rafik Wadee (ESTA)
Nourhan Magdy Fathy Yehia (ESTA)
Connie Lim Ween Yhin (MATA)
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IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 21

Member News
AATI (Indonesia)
Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia

Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia has launched a beta version of its website at a temporary address: http://aati-pro.org.
For the third time, AATI participated in the IFTA Annual Conference, with Gema Goeryadi,
CSA, CTA, CFTe, MFTA, as a speaker and presenting his MFTA paper. Previously,
Gideon Lapian, CSA, CTA, and Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CTA, CFTe, spoke at IFTA’s
Annual Conference in 2012 and 2016.
To give Indonesian investors a good insight into technical analysis, Mr. Gema, as one
of Indonesia’s active technical analysis trainers, has recorded his interview with technical gurus from the conference and uploaded it to his YouTube channel: Astronacci.
He interviewed Martin Pring, John Bollinger, Constance Brown, Louise Bedford, Perry
Kaufman, and Aria Santoso.
Besides promoting international technicalanalysis standard certification—CFTe and
MFTA, according to Indonesia government
regulation—AATI has also worked with theCapital Market Professional Certification
Agency (LSP Pasar Modal) to provide technical analysis curriculum for its Certified
Securities Analyst (CSA) and Registered
Securities Analyst (RSA) program andCertified Technical Analyst (CTA) program. Mr. Aria Santoso, CSA, CTA, CFTe, is the
director of the CSA program. Last November 30, 2018, LSPPM inaugurated 14 CSA and
19 RSA certificate holders.

STA (United Kingdom)
The Society of Technical Analysts

2018 has been an exceptionally busy year for the STA, with the launch of our new
Home Study Course, 50th birthday party celebrations, and the strength of the society
reaching a record 1,500 members.
The first cohort of students of the new STA Home Study Course have sat through thePart 1 exam and achieved excellent results—all achieving over 80%. The course is perfect for students who wish to learn at their own pace rather than in a classroom, due toeither time or geographical constraints. This new version of the course, which covers
the syllabi for both the STA and IFTA examinations, offers 15 subject teaching units
written specifically for it by leading market technicians. Each unit includes exercises
to self-test progress. In addition, the course offers an exam preparation module and aset of past Part 2 exam papers as well as a supplement containing advice on technicalanalysis report writing. Although web based, it is fully downloadable and may be usedonline or offline via PC, Mac, iPad, or Android machines.
Overseas students can sit through the exams in their own countries if a suitable venue
can be found. For full details visit https://www.sta-uk.org/hsc/.
Meanwhile, the classroom-based STA Diploma Part 1 course has seen record numbers
enroll this past fall. We hope this trend will continue well into 2019.
At the December AGM, Axel retired as chairman after six years in the post—passing
the baton onto Tom Hicks. During his tenure, membership grew by nearly 50%, the
STA hosted a very successful IFTA conference, launched a new website along with an
online cloud-based membership system, and last, but by no means least, upgraded
the Home Study Course.
The STA owes Axel a great debt of gratitude for the work that he has done for us all,and we look forward to Tom continuing the great work in 2019.
To keep up to date with the STA and its events, follow us on twitter @STA_ORG or like
our Facebook page.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 22

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates

IFTA Journal 2019–Now Available!

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I

We are pleased to announce that the 2019 IFTA Journal is now available for viewing
and download from the IFTA website. Please share with your society colleagues and/or post to your website.

Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II

Exam 1

Exam 2

Exam dates

25 April 2019Oct 2019

Registration deadline

7 March 2019

TBA

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

Session 1

Session 2

28 Feb 201931 July 2019

2 May 20192 Oct 2019

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 201915 Mar 2020

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php

MFTA Papers

A Professional Journal Published by The International Federation of Technical Analysts

 Linear Momentum and Performance
Indicators

19 Trend Analysis Using B-Xtrender

Application/Outline Deadline(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/ /Inside this issue:

 Momentum Based Techniques
Combined With Relative Trends in
Sectors Rotation
 Empirical Mode Decomposition:
Application to Financial Time SeriesWith Chart Projection

Inside this Issue
49 “Chasing SKURT Signals”—A New
Statistical Method for Determining Trend
Changes and Timing Trades
55 Geometric Patterns in Commodity
Price Data–Crop Circles or Actionable
Information?
67 On the Great Dow Theory
76 Day Trading Returns Across Volatility
States

Articles “Chasing Skurt Signals”—A New
Statistical Method for Determining Trend
Changes and Timing Trades

You can’t predict the future,
but you can prepare for it.
—Maurice Blondel(French Philosopher, 1861-1949)

ISSN 2409-0271

 Geometric Patterns in Commodity Price Data—Crop Circles or Actionable Information?
 On the Great Dow Theory
 Day Trading Returns Across Volatility States
You can’t predict the future, but you can prepare for it.
—Maurice Blondel (French Philosopher, 1861-1949)

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 23

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONSThe IFTA Journal is an annual publication establishedby the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It
is collated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It contains
a wealth of resource material and is an excellent reference for anyone interested in technical analysis.

Credibility and Recognition

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents covering developments in technical analysis in global markets. The
Journal reaches leading practitioners and students oftechnical analysis throughout the world.
The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments impacting, either directly or indirectly, the field of technicalanalysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in the investment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas of technical analysis and those that connect with it.

Submitting Contributions

Licenses and CopyrightLanguage

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

Writing Style

Unless another license is noted, we will assume thatyour contribution is under this license.

Registration and submission of contributions is online
via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor at journal@ifta.org.
Contributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.
Pa p e r s s h o u l d b e w r i t t e n i n a t h e s i s s t y l e.
A guidance can be found at the following link:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

We require all submissions to include the author’s signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of thisdocument.

Editorial Timeline
DecemberCall for papers distributed

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.

May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerOctoberWorldwide distribution

December

Web publication

Referencing

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by figure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text format,
as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in .GIF or.JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF format
in case it is required for printing purposes. An Excel
spreadsheet supporting your submission may also be
included.

For more information, see our website
www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 24

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONS
Selection of Contributions

Contributions are selected by the IFTA Journal Editorial
Committee based on their content. Please understandthat we cannot accept all contributions. Selection
depends on the number and quality of the submissions
and the editor’s findings. Selections are not negotiable.

Remuneration

Publication Agreement
The following is an agreement between

IFTA is organised and operated by volunteers and supported by its members. We ask that you understand wewill not be able to pay for contributions.

author(s) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc., concerning

Questionsa work written by the author(s).

For more information, please contact journal@ifta.org.

Author's Grant of Rights

The author(s) grant the publisher exclusive first publication rights in the work, and further grant a non-exclusive
license for other uses of the work for the duration of its copyright in all languages, throughout the world, in all
media. The publisher agrees to publish the article in the IFTA Journal. The publisher shall include a notice in thework stating “Copyright [author’s(s’) name(s)].” Readers of the article may copy it without the copyright owner’s
permission only if the author(s) and publisher are acknowledged in the copy, and copy is used for educational,
not-for-profit purposes.

Author's Ownership of Copyright

Copyright in the work remains with the author(s).

Warranty of Authorship

The author(s) warrant to the publisher that the article is original and that he/she is/are the sole author(s) and havethe full power to make this agreement. The author(s) indemnify the publisher against any losses and other expenses,
including reasonable attorney’s fees, after final judgment of any claim or action against any of these warranties.
Author(s) name(s)Author(s) signature(s)DateUpon acceptance, please fax or email completed Publication Agreement to: IFTA Headquarters, (fax) +1 (301) 990-9771
or (email) admin@ifta.org.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 25

RATE CARD
Editorial and Readership Profile

The annual IFTA Journal publishes original, well-documented papers and articles on a diverse range of
topics related to the technical analysis of financial andcommodity markets. The Journal provides colleagues
and interested persons with continuing education intechnical analysis. The broad editorial content helps
colleagues remain informed of the developments andleading body of work in technical analysis.
The IFTA Journal is the only international journal of technical analysis reaching a global audience of interested anddedicated practitioners of technical analysis throughout the financial community. It is read by analysts, fundmanagers, financial writers and other decision-makers
throughout the international financial industry.
The IFTA Journal is distributed online, and a print copy
is provided to IFTA colleagues and delegates at theannual IFTA International Conference, building awareness and visibility and providing extra exposure for yourmessage.

Circulation and Readership

Total Circulation: Published online
Coverage: Worldwide
Readership served: Institutional Analysts, AccountManagers, Fund Managers, Investors and Students
Publication Schedule: December

Editorial Committee and Staff

Editor: Dr. Rolf Wetzer Staff: Linda Bernetich

Organizational Affiliation
International Federationof Technical Analysts, Inc.
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
TelephoneEmail+1 (240) 404-6508
journal@ifta.org

Issue Deadline
June 30

Material Specifications

Full-page ad format = 8.5” x 11” (215 x 280 mm) 300 dpi
JPG or PDF. Include crop marks and room for bleed.

Printing

Perfect binding Journal/Book Format, 8.5” x 11”, 80#
gloss weight. Aqueous coating on covers. (This is aclear water-based coating that adds a high-gloss finish and protection to the Journal, and will give yourprinted advertisement a richer look.)

General Information

Principles Governing Advertising in the IFTA Journal.
These principles, developed jointly by the Editorial
Committee of IFTA, are applied by IFTA to ensure
adherence to the highest ethical standards of advertising and to determine the eligibility of products andservices for advertising in IFTA print and electronic
publications.
As a matter of policy, IFTA will sell advertising spacein its publication when the inclusion of adverting does
not interfere with the mission or objectives of IFTA. The
appearance of advertising in IFTA publications is neither
a guarantee nor an endorsement by IFTA.

Advertising Acceptance Policy

All advertisements must be submitted in writing.
Advertising is subject to approval by IFTA. All advertisements must be non-discriminatory and comply with allapplicable laws and regulations. IFTA reserves the right todecline, withdraw and or copy edit at our discretion. Everycare is taken to avoid mistakes, but responsibility cannot
be accepted for clerical or printer’s error.

Payment

Prepayment by check, credit card (Visa, Master Cardor American Express) or wire transfer is required for all
ads. Bank details will be provided to you upon request.
Cancellations and Changes

We will send out an acknowledgement confirming yourorder. You will be required to check that your ad andscheduling are correct. Any changes, cancellations orcorrections must be communicated to IFTA in writing or
by fax, email or mail prior to the submission closing date.

Advertising Rates (pricing in USD)
Back cover (cover 4)$1,800.00

Inside back (cover 3)$1,500.00

Inside front (cover 2)$1,300.00

21 x 28 cm

Full Page$ 1,200.00

18 x 18 cm

2/3 page$1,056.00

1/2 page$823.00

1/3 page$545.00

1/4 page$300.00

18 x 12 cm
12 x 18 cm
18 x 8 cm
6 x 25 cm
8.5 x 8 cm

Orders, Materials and Payment

Please send all orders, materials, payments and related
communications to IFTA at admin@ifta.org.

IFTAUPDATE 2018 Volume 25 Issue 4

page 26IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
GHANA—BSG* Bastiat Society Ghana https://bastiatghana.org
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.ataindia.in
INDIA—ATMA* Association of Technical Market Analysts www.atma.ac
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
NIGERIA—TASN Technical Analysts Society, Nigeria www.tasnigeria.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com

President Mohamed El Saiid, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
mohamed.elsaiid@ifta.org* Developing

Director Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe (MATA)
nmihsan@gmail.com

IFTA Update Schedule
The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
March Issue

All content due February 15

June Issue

All content due May 15

September Issue

All content due August 15

December Issue

All content due November 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

Vice President Middle East and Africa and Conference Director Tamer Gamel Edin Hassan, CFTe (ESTA)
tgamal@gmail.com
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Americas Jeanette Anne Schwarz-Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. CFTe (AAPTA)
optnqueen@aol.com
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Treasurer and Website Director Karin Roller, CFTe (VTAD)
karin.roller@vtad.de
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Development Director Ron William, MSTA, CFTe, CMT (SAMT)
ron.william@ifta.org
Education Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.deExamination Director Saleh Nasser, CFTe, CMT (ESTA)
saleh.nasser@ifta.org
Secretary, Development Director and Asia-Pacific Affairs Takashi Nakamura, MFTA, CFTe (NTAA)
nakamtak@mse.biglobe.ne.jp
Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Marketing and Webinar Director Tom Hicks, MSTA (STA)
tom.hicks@live.co.uk

Staff

Executive Director Charles W.L. Deale, FASAE, CAE
Senior Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Accounting Dawn Rosenfeld
Editor Lynne Agoston
Production Manager Jennifer Olivares

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org