This study was carried out for RIKEN bySpecial Study

Investigation of the Ripple Effects of Developing and Utilizing
Leadership Supercomputers in Japan: The Scientific andFinancial Returns from the K Computer and Possibilities fromthe Post-K Computer
Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.
Robert Sorensen

Steve Conway
Kevin Monroe

IDC OPINION
In Japan and other developed countries, leadership-class supercomputers have played a major role inadvancing science, boosting industrial competitiveness, and improving the quality of daily life foraverage citizens. Japan's K computer is well known throughout the world and, as this study shows, theK computer has enabled many impressive innovations and financial returns that would not have beenpossible with typical, less-capable supercomputers.
During the past five years, national political leaders in the U.S., Europe, and China have recognized
the ability of leadership-class supercomputers to help transform their economies, their societies, andtheir understanding of the natural world. As a result, these leaders have endorsed important new
initiatives aimed at developing exascale computing capability in the 2020 to 2024 time frame, with preexascale systems entering the world in the next few years. Examples include U.S. President Obama's
executive order creating the National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI); the EU's increased HPC
funding and Action Plan to achieve exascale computing; and the incorporation of high performancecomputing (HPC) as a key priority in China's 13th Five-Year Plan.
Like these political leaders, IDC believes that exascale computing capability will be an important
prerequisite for scientific and industrial competitiveness in the 21st century. Major economic powers,
including Japan, that do not develop this capability risk losing scientific and economic ground tocountries with exascale technology. IDC believes that the U.S. and Japan possess the greatest
technical experience for developing exascale supercomputers and the mature vendor and user
communities for effectively exploiting these advanced computers.
For the Japanese ROI accomplishments collected in this study, the overall financial return on
investment averaged an extremely strong $571 dollars in revenue per dollar invested in HPC (for the K
computer). On average these projects generated cost savings of an extremely high amount of $278
dollars in cost savings per dollar invested in HPC on the K computer. These results lead most othercountries around the world.
IDC'S ROI definition used in this study is different from traditional ROI definitions and was developed
specifically for measuring actual results of R&D programs and the contribution of HPC to these
programs. The IDC ROI figure averaging $571 in additional revenue for each $1 invested in HPC iscalculated on the same basis IDC used for our successful 2013 ROI study for the U.S. Department ofEnergy. This figure does not reflect asset costs and would be lower if asset costs were reflected. In

December 2016, IDC #US42030216

addition, IDC's ROI figures for countries represent the totals for only the projects IDC evaluated for thepresent study and do not represent totals for all of the HPC projects
undertaken within the countries.
This study provides 146 new financial ROI & innovation ROR examples, thatwere combined with previous examples around the world for this study. This
study located 29 financial ROI examples and 117 innovation examples inJapan. A total of 21 different organizations and 48 different researchers weresurveyed as part of this study. The combined total financial value of the K
computer was an amazing $9.6 billion US dollars for the projects in this study.
Looking at both the K and Post-K computers, the overall value financial
values exceeds $19 billion US dollars, for the examples in this study. Notethat the actual amounts are much higher, as this is only a subset of the
projects on these systems.

Looking at both the K
and Post-K computers,
the overall value
financial values exceeds$19 billion US dollars

This study confirmed that many Japanese researchers have benefitted greatly from using the K
computer and are ready to advance their work and tackle even more challenging problems on a more
powerful Post-K computer. We are firmly convinced that developing a more powerful successor to the
K computer is well worth the investment. The K computer has demonstrated that leadership-classsupercomputers can produce returns far in excess of the amounts needed to fund them.
________________________________________________________________________DISCLAIMER
The information and views set out in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarilyreflect the official opinion of RIKEN. RIKEN does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included inthis study. Neither RIKEN nor any person acting on RIKEN's behalf may be held responsible for theuse which may be made of the information contained therein.
Copyright ©2016 - RIKEN. All rights reserved.
Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged.
________________________________________________________________________©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In order to provide scientific advance and economic growth, nations around the world are increasingly
investing in large, leadership-class supercomputers. These computers provide a tool that can magnify
the researcher's capabilities and greatly improve their efficiency in conducting their science.
The cost to develop and build the next generation of exascale computers isvery high. The top systems could exceed $1 billion US dollars, perhaps as highas $1.3 billion (excluding maintenance, staff, buildings, power, etc.). Although
the costs are high, it has become the new investment level for leading edge
science and innovation. When combined with advancements in application
design, big data and top researchers, these systems will become the backbone
for new scientific discoveries.

Project Summary

To provide scientificadvance and economic
growth, nations
around the world areincreasingly investingin large, leadershipclass supercomputers

International Data Corporation (IDC) has evaluated the return-on-investment(ROI) and the return-on-research (ROR) for K and Post-K computers.


For Strategic Programs, Post-K priority issues, and research cases which have a press
release

A total of 21 different organizations and 48 different researchers were interviewed in Japan.



Original 721 reviewers and 68 new Japanese reviewer confirmed 117 ROR and 29 ROI cases.

K computer:The total revenue return on the K computer was return at least 2.7 billion US dollars – plus costsavings of 6.9 billion US dollars.



Looking at the financial rate-of-returns, the K computer provides $571 in revenues, and $278
in cost savings for each dollar invested.


Cost saving ROI is much higher than that of the other flagship supercomputers around theworld.

ROR on the K computer’s Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE) generate
extremely high innovation levels compared with other supercomputers in the world.



50% priority use of SPIRE was very efficient to generate those high level innovations.



The ratios of priority use are smaller in other supercomputers.

NOTE: IDC'S ROI definition used in this study is different from traditional ROI definitions and wasdeveloped specifically for measuring actual results of R&D programs and the contribution of HPC tothese programs. The IDC ROI figure averaging $571 in additional revenue for each $1 invested in HPC
is calculated on the same basis IDC used for our successful 2013 ROI study for the U.S. Departmentof Energy. This figure does not reflect asset costs and would be lower if asset costs were reflected. In
addition, IDC's ROI figures for countries represent the totals for only the projects IDC evaluated for thepresent study and do not represent totals for all of the HPC projects undertaken within the countries.

Post-K computer:The projected revenue is an extremely strong $5 billion – plus cost savings of $5 billion US.
Note that the actual return is much higher because this is only for the researchers thatparticipated in this study. And simple comparison of actual return are in principle©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

3

impossible between future Post-K computer and present super computers like K
computer.


The ROR on the Post-K computer also generate extremely high innovation levels comparedwith other supercomputers in the world.



ROI and ROR indicates Post-K computer stands out among leadership projects around theworld because most other systems are used on many smaller projects than as done on the K
computer.

Key Observations from the Survey on Having a Leadership Class
Supercomputer
Surveyed experts cited a broad range of technical exemplars for how a K-class supercomputer has
been critical to their research. Most important, a majority indicated that without such a system they
simply would not have been able to generate valid results in their field of study within a reasonable
time frame, if at all. Specific K-class performance features frequently mentioned were the ability to:Handle large three dimensional simulations

Conduct analysis of complex physicals systems with a high degree of precisionPerform critical calculations in real timeConduct advanced multiscale and multiphysics simulations



Reduce the need for empirical testing, particularly in animal studiesUse data sets large enough to accurately simulate physical environments with a high degreeof reliability and fidelity

Benefits of Post-K Computer
Surveyed experts were in agreement that a Post-K computer would offer many benefits for theirresearch:


New Science. Some stressed that a more powerful system will beneeded to enable new science. Areas cited as ripe for new scientificdevelopment included personalized medicine, computational
astrophysics, molecular dynamics, and social simulation.

Improved Simulations. Others stated that a larger system would drive
even better capabilities in existing areas of computational studies,citing the benefits of a larger, more capable system to provide moreaccurate simulations, enhanced simulation resolution, reduced time tosolution, and greater opportunities for advanced multiscale research.

Less Expensive Access. A third group indicated that a larger system
would allow more users to benefit from the system, thereby increasing
scientific productivity and cost-effectiveness.

Surveyed experts werein agreement that a
Post-K computer would
offer many benefits totheir research

Typical Quotes:
With a faster computer, it is possible to reduce the computational charge [cost] of a current
simulation by a factor of 100, creating a much lower simulation cost and one less expensive
than an experimental counterpart.



The economic and social costs of major earthquakes are very high, and the K computer is
helping to reduce these costs in many different ways.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

4In the Post-K computer, it is sufficient to expand data sets, such as expanding the area understudy rather than speeding it up. There is a Nankai Trough earthquake special study of the
Ministry of Education looking at ways to mitigate the damage. Evacuation simulation is also amajor theme.

Financial Benefits from The K Computer and the Post-K Computer
For the Japanese ROI accomplishments collected in this study, the overall financial return on
investment averaged an extremely strong $571 dollars in revenue per dollar invested in HPC (for the K
computer). On average these projects generated cost savings of an extremely high amount of $278
dollars in cost savings per dollar invested in HPC on the K computer. These results lead most othercountries around the world.
IDC'S ROI definition used in this study is different from traditional ROI
definitions and was developed specifically for measuring actual results of R&D
programs and the contribution of HPC to these programs. The IDC ROI figure
averaging $571 in additional revenue for each $1 invested in HPC is calculatedon the same basis IDC used for our successful 2013 ROI study for the U.S.
Department of Energy. This figure does not reflect asset costs and would belower if asset costs were reflected. In addition, IDC's ROI figures for countries
represent the totals for only the projects IDC evaluated for the present study anddo not represent totals for all of the HPC projects undertaken within the
countries.

Looking at both the K
and Post-K systems,
the overall financial
returns exceeds $19
billion US dollars

This study provides 146 new financial ROI & innovation ROR examples, that were combined withprevious examples to create the tables below. This study located 28 financial ROI examples and 117
innovation examples. The combined total financial value of the K system was an amazing $9.6 billion
US dollars for the projects in this study. Looking at both the K and Post-K systems, the overall financial
returns exceeds $19 billion US dollars, for the examples in this study. Note that the actual amounts aremuch higher, as this is only a subset of the projects on these systems.
As Table 1 shows, the cost savings were very impressive, at $7 billion with the K Computer and $5
billion planned for the Post-K Computer. Note that the actual amounts are much higher, as this is only
a subset of the projects on these systems.
From just these projects, the total overall value of the K Computer exceeds $9.5 billion (in revenues
and cost savings), and $10 billion for the Post-K Computer.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

5

Table 1
Summary of the Financial ROI from HPC in Japan($M)

ROI Average of
Cost Saving$ per HPC
$ Inputs$571$6,888$278$9,578$5,100$398$4,950$234$10,050$7,790$423$11,838$251$19,628($M)

ROI Average of
Revenue $ per
HPC $ Inputs

Japan K computer$2,690Japan Post-K computer
Total

Total Revenues

Total Cost
SavingTotal Financial
Returns($M)

Source: IDC 2016

Impact on Researchers of Not Having Post-K Computer
Almost all surveyed HPC experts involved with the K computer were emphatic that a transition back to
the use of regular clusters would deeply harm, and in some cases shut down, their current research
activities. Many simply stated that they would have to abandon their current efforts because the jobs
that are now critical to their research agendas would take too long, be too complex, or have too muchdata to execute effectively in a regular cluster or cloud environment.


Other HPC experts cited concerns that reliance on regular clusters or cloud-based options
would adversely affect the reliability, accuracy and even the fundamental validity of their
existing simulations and significantly slow development of new ones.



Additionally, experts stressed that such a transition would cause a loss of capability vis-a-vis
foreign counterpart research efforts, a weaken ability to validate new models against empirical
data, decreased opportunities to do parametric studies, and an overall slowdown in thedevelopment of advanced software for HPC systems.

Impact on Japan Itself of Not Having Post-K Computer
The bulk of surveyed HPC experts noted that in addition to the many concerns noted above, problems
that would arise into the 2020-time frame should there be no Post-K computer and that the scientificcommunity instead had to rely on regular clusters of cloud-based options include:A general stagnation of Japan’s ability to develop leading-edge HPC
hardware and software. Such stagnation is seen as resulting in Japanfalling behind other world-cases HPC developers, particularly the US
and China, resulting in an overall Japanese dependence on foreign
capabilities to support HPC-based research.



Many believe that Japan would lose its status as a world class HPC
supplier and user nation.



A concomitant stagnation in Japan’s larger scientific and engineer
capability due to a lack of indigenous HPC development. The©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

Many believe thatJapan would lose its
status as a world class
HPC supplier and user
nation.

6Japanese research community would be forced to find new ways to conduct research that is
not so reliant on HPCs.
Many experts cautioned that the negative impact of such a decision may not become apparent for the
next few years, but that it could have implications well into the 2020’s and beyond. Finally, some notedthat such a drag on scientific and engineering developments would have a significant negative impact
on many Japanese industries that are competing internationally.

Enabling Breakthrough Scientific and Industrial Research
Surveyed HPC experts pointed to a number of ways that a post-K computer would help their research.
Some indicated that a new system would open up a range of new areas of scientific, while others
highlighted the positive impact a new system would have on helping to improve the quality of theresearch they were already conducting. New scientific fields of discovery mentioned included:All-atom molecular dynamics simulations of more than 10 million atoms to support
breakthroughs in the molecular theory of material science,

Simulations to determine the long-term effects of various drugs on heart patients, as well as
the long-term health impact of heart surgery prior to the procedure,High quality aerospace simulations capable of accurately modeling a wide range of take-off
and landing scenarios,

Expectations of technical performance improvements for a Post-K computer included realizing
performance improvements of 100X over the current K computer, reducing the time for simulations thatwould currently take a year down to only a few days, and facilitating the simultaneous running of 100sof versions of a code that can now only be run one at a time on the K computer.


Many of the experts noted that without a Post-K computer, their ability to compete with otherforeign researchers who had access to larger system would be hampered, and a few indictedthat development of a Post-K computer could help drive innovation within Japan’s
semiconductor industry.

Surveyed HPC experts expressed a number of compelling - and diverse –reasons why Japan needs a world class Post-K computer. Conversely, many
provided ample comments as to the overall negative effect the lack of such asystem could have on Japan’s overall scientific and economic prospects.
Expert justification for a Post-K computer included:

Many of the experts
noted that without a
Post-K computer, theirability to compete withother foreign
researchers who hadaccess to larger system
would be hampered

The critical ability to conduct sophisticated space-based simulations
due to the limitations and costs of counterpart experimental studies.

The consideration that a Post-K computer was absolutely necessary
for Japan to maintain a world-class HPC capability, while indicating
this will not be possible if advanced systems are purchased fromoverseas.

The perception that the Post-K computer would serve not only a flagship development from aperspective of compositing power, but also as a critical driver of innovation.



The need to develop a leading-edge HPC platform to drive human resource development andto establish a system of young researchers of education and cooperation.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

7

Likewise, many were concerned about the implications of having no Post-K class systemdevelopment, and such concerns centered on Japan being unable to compete scientifically on theworld stage, serious disruptions to a wide range of on-going Japanese research efforts, the chilling
effect on a broad range of leading-edge scientific research going forward, and a lack of technologicalleadership that the industrial sector can draw on to help them compete globally.

Scientific Innovation Returns From the K Computer
The benefits of HPC usage are not limit to financial ROI, new scientific innovations are an important
type of benefit for HPC users in government, academia, and industry. Japan leads the other countries
in the ratio of innovations of the top class level:A much higher percentage of the Japanese innovations qualified in category 5, as one of the
top 2 to 3 innovations of the last decade.

A far greater percentage of the Japanese innovation examples qualified as "useful to over 50
organizations" than the other examples.

Using the IDC innovation class ratings, Japan has a higher ratio of Class 1 innovations
compared to the US, China and major European countries.

Scientific Success Stories


The K computer has enabled multi-scale heart simulation from the protein level. This has
contributed to basic medicine (elucidation of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy), and also
demonstrates the effectiveness of the clinical application of a simulation model developed forheart surgery.



The K computer enabled the simulation of the formation process of galaxies that requires verylarge-scale calculations.



In order to simulate an entire virus with all atoms, it is necessary to deal with environments ofover 10 million atoms, a capability available only on the K computer.

Highly accurate molecular simulation became possible, and can applied to various proteins,enabling accurate biological response simulation. As a result, the mechanism of the drug
resistance of non-small cell lung cancer treatment drugs has been elucidated.

Industry Success Stories


Simulation that supports coupled analysis of multi-physics can shorten the process ofcommercialization, which is very important for the international competitiveness of the coalgasification furnace process.



The Post K computer is required for the simulation in the time scale of biological reactions in
the millisecond level, a capability already achieved by the US.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

8

TABLE OF CONTENTS
P.
Executive Summary

3

Project Summary

3

Key Observations from the Survey on Having a Leadership Class Supercomputer

4

Benefits of Post-K Computer

4

Financial Benefits from The K Computer and the Post-K Computer

5

Impact on Researchers of Not Having Post-K Computer

6

Impact on Japan Itself of Not Having Post-K Computer

6

Enabling Breakthrough Scientific and Industrial Research

7

Scientific Innovation Returns From the K Computer8

Scientific Success Stories

8

Industry Success Stories

8

In This Study

9

Methodology

9

Overview

9

The Researchers Surveyed

10

The Innovation Return on Research (ROR) Metric Used in the Study

10

The ROI and ROR Data Validation Process

12

Situation Overview

13

The Purpose of This Study

13

Survey Findings

14

Respondent Profiles

14

Respondent Titles

14

Research Areas of the Projects

15

Importance of Having a Leadership Class Supercomputer

17

The importance of having access to a K-like supercomputer to their research

17

The importance of having access to the Post K-like supercomputer to their research18

How their CURRENT research would be impacted if they had to use regular clusters

19

How their research would be impacted in 2020 if they had to use regular clusters

20

How the Post-K Supercomputer Could Help Their Research

21

The importance to Japan of having a world class Post-K supercomputer

23

Financial ROI Results

25

IDC's HPC ROI Approach

25

The Definition Of The Investments Used In The Study

25©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

TABLE OF CONTENTS — Continued
P.
Revenue and Cost Savings

26

Overall Financial ROI Results in Japan

26

Scientific Innovation Results

28

Innovation Areas

28

Innovations by Sector28

Mix of Innovation Types in Japan

29

Innovations in the Study by Country

30

Rating the Importance and Impacts of the Innovations

30

Rating the Overall Value Of The Innovations

33

The Innovation Class Levels Used in the Study

33

Ratings of the Japanese Innovations

34

How Japan Financial ROI Results Compare to the Rest of the World

37

Financial ROI in Revenues

37

Financial ROI in Cost savings

38

How Japan Innovativeness Compares to the Rest of the World

40

Japan Compared to China in Leadership Computing

43

Examples of the Success from the Riken Supercomputers

44

Summary of Key Success Stories

44

From the K computer

44

Possible from the Post-K computer

44

Selected Mini-Case Studies of Successful K computer Projects

44

Case Study #1 Research Area: Biology, Precision Medicine

44

Case Study #2 Research Area: Computer Drug Discovery

45

Case Study #3 Research Area: Computational Multiphysics Heart Simulation

45

Case Study #4 Research Area: Quantum Hadron Physics/Lattice QCD

46

Case Study #5 Research Area: Molecular Science

46

Case Study #6 Research Area: Solid-Liquid Interface Of Lithium-Ion Batteries

46

Case Study #7 Research Area: Multi-Physics Simulation for Energy

47

Case Study #8 Research Area: Computational Material Science

47

Case Study #9, Research Area: Weather Research

47

Case Study #10 Research Area: Mesoscale (Intermediate) Research

48

Case Study #11 Research Area: Mathematical Data Assimilation

48

Case Study #12 Research Area: Automotive Aerodynamic Simulation48©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

TABLE OF CONTENTS — Continued
P.
Conclusion

49

The K computer Has Been A Major Success

49

Impact on Japanese Researchers of Not Having Post-K computer

49

How Post-K computer Stands Out Among Leadership Projects Around the World

49

Future Outlook

50

Plans and Expectations for the Post-K computer

50

Planned Areas of Research on the Post-K supercomputer

50

Summary of the Expected Financial ROI Results from the Post-K computer

51

Planned Innovation ROR (Return on Research) Results from the Post-K computer

52

How the Post-K computer Compares to Leadership Projects around the World

52

Learn More

53

Related Research (IDC Copyright Publications)

53

Appendix

55

Participants In The Survey

55©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

LIST OF TABLES
P.
Table 1 Summary of the Financial ROI from HPC in Japan

6

Table 2 Titles of the Survey Respondents

14

Table 3 A Research Areas of the Survey Respondents

15

Table 3 B Research Areas of the Survey Respondents

16

Table 4 Financial ROI From HPC in Japan

27

Table 5 Innovation Areas: For ALL Innovation ROR Projects in Japan

28

Table 6 Japanese Innovations by Sector

29

Table 7 Mix of Innovation Types in Japan

29

Table 8 Number of Innovation Examples in the Study30

Table 9 Innovation Ratings: For Japanese Innovations

32

Table 10 Overall Rating of Japanese Innovations

36

Table 11 Financial ROI From HPC by Country: Revenues

37

Table 12 Financial ROI From HPC by Country: Cost Savings

39

Table 13 Survey Participants

55©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

LIST OF FIGURESP.
1Innovation Index #1 Importance (For Japan)

31

2

Innovation Index #2 Number of Organization's Impacted (For Japan)

33

3Overall Rating CLASS Levels of Japanese Innovations

35

4

Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: In Revenue ROI

37

5

Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: In Cost Savings ROI

39

6

Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Innovation Importance Ratings

40

7

Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Organizations Impacted

418Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Overall Innovation Class Ratings

42©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

IN THIS STUDY

Methodology
Overview
The intent of this study was to determine the ripple effect of developing and utilizing leadershipsupercomputers in Japan. As a first step, IDC worked with Riken to develop a broad set of questions
that would address the issue from multiple interrelated perspectives:


The first perspective centered on assessing the overall ripple effect – defined as thewidespread impact of the availability of a leadership class supercomputer on Japan’s overall
scientific, industrial, and economic sectors writ large – enabled by the availability of a single ora series of leadership supercomputers. Questions here centered on gathering qualitative dataand insights highlighting the impact of currently available supercomputer developments, theopportunities associated with the development of future supercomputers, and the implicationsof future reliance on general-purpose cluster or cloud-based solutions.



The second perspective centered on gaining insights into the overall financial impact ofleadership supercomputers using two specific quantitative metrics; the financial return on
investment (ROI) on a scientific or technological advancement achieved through the use of aleadership class supercomputer and an innovation return on research (ROR) metric thatmeasured the innovative quality of a research effort supported by a leadership-based classsupercomputer.

A third perspective was based on information IDC gathered in Japan using the methodology
IDC developed for an extensive study we have conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy(DOE). This methodology captures quantitative and qualitative information on the positive
outcomes associated with investments in HPC technology—financial returns-on-investment(ROI) for private sector firms, and returns-on-research (ROR), in the form of innovations, fornot-for-profit organizations in government and academia. The results for Japan can be foundin the next two sections.

Additional questions were used to help draw out easy to understand yet highly illuminating casestudies or related success stories that could be used to illustrate the ripple effects of supercomputer
systems to both technical and non-technical readers.


IDC research has shown again and again that such qualitative or anecdotal evidence of thiskind can be extremely useful for helping readers of the study grasp the overall impact of HPC
usage and to add more insights and a better contextual understanding of the ROI and ROR
findings.

Finally, IDC sought to gather a number of key quotes from those surveyed as a way to more
effectively and clearly convey some of their key thoughts, insights, and concerns.

Once the series of question and related study guide had been agreed upon by both Riken and IDC,
IDC conducted a series of in-person, in-depth interviews with a broad range of technical expert within
the Japanese scientific and supercomputer user communities who were selected for their ability to best
address these questions:

The survey included a total of 117 innovation project examples and 29 financial ROI
examples, for a total of 146 examples (note some projects had both an innovation and an
ROI example, and some had projects on both the K Computer and plans for running on
the Post-K Computer).

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

9This included 61 current projects on the K computer, and plans for 40 future projects to besupported by the Post-K computer.

The list of all participants and their organizations can be found in the appendix.

The Researchers Surveyed
IDC conducted a set of surveys of researchers and people using the K computer and this planning to
use the Post-K computer. A total of 21 different organizations and 48 different researchers weresurveyed as part of this study. In addition, IDC surveyed a set of people that could potentially use a
Post-K like computer. The type people surveyed included:

HPC researchers using the K computer:For strategic programs, we surveyed all of the cases that each representative
organization suggested.

For other programs, we surveyed all of the cases that we could find that had made apress release.

HPC researchers that may use the Post-K computer:For priority programs, we surveyed all of the cases that each representative organizationsuggested.

Researchers and scientists that could potentially use a Post-K like computer:This included people inside japan and around the world.

The Innovation Return on Research (ROR) Metric Used in the Study
In order to properly quantify the overall impact of leadership class supercomputers in Japan, IDC
analysts used a rating system that measured both the importance and impact of each leadership classsupercomputer based innovations in the existing data set, plus all of the new Japanese innovations
collected in this research study. IDC developed this measurement method as part of a successful 2013global study for the U.S. Department of Energy.
The overall innovation ranking or the present study on Japan was created based on a combination of
the two complementary rankings of the innovations:

The IMPORTANCE this innovation compared to all other innovations in this field overthe last ten years:
5. One of the top 2 to 3 innovations in the last decade
4. One of the top 5 innovations in the last decade
3. One of the top 10 innovations in the last decade
2. One of the top 25 innovations in the last decade
1. One of the top 50 innovations in the last decade

The IMPACT of this innovation to multiple organizations:
6. An innovation that is useful to over 50 organizations
5. An innovation that is useful to 10 to 49 organizations©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

104. An innovation that is useful to 6 to 10 organizations
3. An innovation useful to 2 to 5 organizations
2. An innovation only useful to 1 organization
1. An innovation that is recognized ONLY by experts in the field

Combing these measures, IDC's used these overall innovation ratings for this projectThis was done to create a single innovation index scale to rank the overall value and usefulness of theinnovations being studied. While all of the innovations are important, this scale helps to rank them forcomparisons.
Class 1 innovations – One of the top 2-3 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to over 10 organizations
Class 2 innovations -- One of the top 5 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to over 10 organizations


These are important innovations, but only useful to a few organizations andrepresent useful discoveries in the area of researchClass 7 innovations – One of the top 50 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 2 organizations


These are important innovations, useful to a number of organizations andrepresent useful discoveries in the area of researchClass 6 innovations – One of the top 25 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 2 organizations


These are important innovations, useful to a number of organizations andrepresent breakthroughs or new discoveries in the area of researchClass 5 innovations – One of the top 25 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at over 10 organizations


These are very important types of innovations, useful to a number of organizations
and some of the top breakthroughs in the area of researchClass 4 innovations – One of the top 10 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 5 organizations


These are also top types of innovations, useful to many and clearly breakthroughsin the area of researchClass 3 innovations – One of the top 5 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 5 organizations


These are the top types of innovations, useful to many and clearly breakthroughsin the area of research

These are important innovations, but only useful to a few organizations, and areoften minor innovations

Class 8 innovations – The rest of the innovations in the study©2016 RIKEN

These are useful innovations, but only useful to very few organizations, and areoften minor or incremental innovations#US42030216

11

The ROI and ROR Data Validation Process
In order to fully ensure that the data collected during the course of this study is correct, accurate,
believable and defensible, IDC adopted a multi-layered process that harnessed a broad range of HPCrelated expertise from a number of different subject matter experts:
1. Upon initial submission, forms were reviewed by IDC experts to see if all of the information
was correct and the form met standards necessary to be considered for inclusion in the study.


In cases where the form either lacked the necessary information, or there were some otherquestions or concerns relating to a particular submission, IDC contacted the submitters,
and then worked with them to add, change, or otherwise alter their submission to meet
IDC submission criteria.



IDC then compared each entry to previous entries in similar fields of research to see if theresults and numbers were at a similar level. There were 3 outliers that were then sent to abroader group for a more complete evaluation.

2. Once a submission was reviewed and accepted by IDC analysts, it was then turned over tomembers of the HPC User Forum Steering Committee (listed at: www. hpcuserforum.com) for
review of accuracy and importance. Members are volunteer HPC and computational science
experts representing leading organizations in government, academia, and industry (see list at
www.hpcuserforum.com).
When required (in only a few cases), subject matter experts in the areas covered in a
submission were called in for further review. These reviews were done by experts in aparticular field.



The mix of experts that were available for this review included:

Education--University/Academic 216

Energy--and geosciences 39Entertainment--Digital Content Creation & Distribution 5Finance/Insurance--Economics/Financial 26Government--Defense, Labs, Research Centers, etc. 123

Health--Bio-Sciences, pharmaceuticals, life sciences 63Manufacturing--Discrete & Process – CAE, EDA/IT/ISV 105



Other 109Transportation 8

Weather--Climate and Earth Sciences 27In total, there were 721 experts available around the world

3. Subsequent to approval by the HPC Steering Committee, a submission was moved into
consideration for both an innovation award and for inclusion in the study's economic database.
This process was developed to ensure that the comparisons are fair and neutral around the world. In
the case of the Post-K system, we used estimates of future results as opposed to actual results.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

12

SITUATION OVERVIEWHigh performance computing (HPC) technology has been greatly advanced by Japanese vendors andheavily exploited by Japanese users since the dawn of the supercomputer era in the 1960s. Even
before then, Japanese contributions to early computer technology development and usage werecrucial for enabling the supercomputer era.
The world's most powerful computers, called leadership-class supercomputers, have contributed
enormously to scientific advances, national security, economic progress, and the quality of life,
Leadership-class supercomputers are indispensable for many applications that are important for thesocieties they serve, such as the following:Predicting severe storms that can devastate lives and property

Providing accurate daily/weekly weather forecasts needed by the transportation. Agricultural,and tourism industries

Improving the design and safety of power plants and developing technologies to exploit
alternative energy sources

Detecting sophisticated cyber security breaches, insider threats, and electronic fraud.

Combatting crime and terrorism

Advancing fundamental science as a prerequisite for later advancements in applied researchand development, including industrial R&D



Pioneering new computer technologies that can later transform business and consumer
electronic devices

Political leaders around the world have increasingly recognized the transformational power ofleadership-class supercomputers and are supporting initiatives to enable their countries to compete
effectively in the worldwide race to develop future supercomputers with unprecedented speed, called"exascale" computers, in the next 5-6 years. U.S. President Obama, European Commission leaders,and Chinese leaders all have endorsed initiatives to reach this goal. Japan is the only other country
with the technical ability to accomplish this. In IDC's opinion, the U.S. and Japan have the greatest
experience in designing leadership-class supercomputers that are capable of supporting a broad
spectrum of challenging scientific and industrial research problems. The Post-K computer would be amajor milestone on the path toward exascale computing capability.

The Purpose of This Study
The purpose of this study was to gain insights and gather quantitative data related to the ripple effectof RIKEN’s existing K supercomputer and the potential benefit of a RIKEN development for a newflagship Post-K computer with a planned operational date of around fiscal 2020.
Currently, the Post-K computer effort is supported as a development and maintenance projectwith a total project cost of investment 130 billion yen (among which the national fund is worth
about 110 billion yen) in 2014 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science andTechnology (MEXT).

For the purpose of this study, RIKEN and IDC jointly defined the so-called ripple effect as thewidespread impact of the availability of a leadership class supercomputer on Japan’s overall scientific,
industrial and economic sectors writ large.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

13

SURVEY FINDINGS

Respondent Profiles
The survey included a total of 117 innovation project examples and 29 financial ROI examples, for a
total of 146 examples (note some projects had both an innovation and an ROI example, and some had
projects on both the K Computer and plans for running on the Post-K Computer).
This included 61 current projects on the K computer, and plans for 40 future projects to be supportedby the Post-K computer. The list of all participants and their organizations can be found in the
appendix.

Respondent Titles
As Table 2 indicates, the survey respondents predominantly consisted of senior-level university-based
research scientists and other senior researchers.

Table 2
Titles of the Survey Respondents
Title

Number

Percentage of Sample

Professor

21

44.7%

Team Leader

7

14.9%

Assistant Professor

4

8.5%

Group Leader

3

6.4%

Senior Research Scientist

3

6.4%

Chief Researcher/Scientist

2

4.3%

Researcher

2

4.3%

CEO

1

2.1%

Director, Professor

1

2.1%

Principle Investigator

1

2.1%

Research Unit Leader

1

2.1%

Senior Director for Research Affairs

1

2.1%

Total

47

100.0%

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

14

Research Areas of the Projects
Table 3.A and 3.B show that the respondents represented a broad spectrum of scientific disciplines
and focus areas, including applied research with strong potential for contributing to Japan's economy
and quality of life. It was important to ensure that opinions were received from many areas of leadingedge research being conducted in Japan.
Note: These categories are as reported by the researchers during the survey interviews in Table 3.A.
Table 3.B summarizes the projects into more general areas.

Table 3 A
Research Areas of the Survey Respondents
Research Areas

Number

Percentage of Sample

Molecular Dynamics/Science

11

10.4%

Tools & Library

10

9.4%

Biology, Precision Medicine, Pharma

8

7.5%

Weather Research & Climate

8

7.5%

Mathematical data assimilation

7

6.6%

Nuclear physics theory

6

5.7%

Quantum many-body problem

6

5.7%

Automotive aerodynamic simulation

5

4.7%

Battery Development

5

4.7%

Computational Fluid Dynamics

4

3.8%

Astrophysics, Astronomy, Precision Cosmology

3

2.8%

Civil Engineering and Social Simulations

3

2.8%

Computational Material Science

3

2.8%

Computational Molecular Engineering

3

2.8%

Computational neuroscience

3

2.8%

Design optimization

3

2.8%

Large-scale first principle computation

3

2.8%

Mesoscale meteorological research

2

1.9%

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

15

Table 3 A
Research Areas of the Survey Respondents
Research Areas

Number

Percentage of Sample

Solar thermal convection

2

1.9%

Other Areas

11

10.4%

Total

106

100.0%

Source: IDC 2016

Table 3 B
Research Areas of the Survey Respondents
Research Areas

Number

Percentage of Sample

General Science Areas

35

33.0%

Manufacturing/Automotive/CFD/Design Optimization

21

19.8%

Molecular Dynamics/Science/Engineering

13

12.3%

Biology, Precision Medicine, Life Sciences

12

11.3%

Tools & Library

10

9.4%

Weather Research & Climate

10

9.4%

Astrophysics, Astronomy, Precision Cosmology

5

4.7%

Total

106

100.0%

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

16

Importance of Having a Leadership Class Supercomputer
The importance of having access to a K-like supercomputer
to their research
Surveyed experts cited a broad range of technical exemplars of how a K-classsupercomputer was critical to their research. Most important, a majority
indicated that without such a system they simply would not have been able togenerate valid results in their field of study within a reasonable time frame, oreven if at all. Specific K-class performance features frequently mentioned
were the ability to:

Without such a systemthey simply would nothave been able togenerate valid results intheir field of study
within a reasonable timeframe, or even if at all.



Handle large three dimensional simulations

Conduct analysis of complex physicals systems with a high degree of precisionPerform critical calculations in real timeConduct advance multiscale simulations



Reduce the need for empirical testing, particularly in animal studiesAnd use data sets large enough to accurately simulate physical environments with a highdegree of reliability and fidelity

In addition, researchers discussed some of the non-technical and--perhaps more far reaching-economic and social benefits such as increased global industrial competiveness, more accurate
weather forecasting capabilities and climate change analysis, new discoveries in medical technology
and genetics study, and greater understanding of earthquake and related geophysical dynamics.

Key Quotes:


Before the K computer it took more than one year for a single calculation, but by using the K
computer, and with the same resolution, it has become possible to run in a three-dimensionalrather than two-dimensional mode.

K computer availability is important for large atom simulation and maintaining international
competitiveness.

It is important to perform calculations in real time.

In order to simulate an entire virus with all atoms, it is necessary to deal with environments ofover 10 million atoms, a capability available only on the K computer.



In previous supercomputers, accuracy ranged from 10＾6 to 10^7, and the reliability of thesimulation had not been guaranteed. With the K computer, accuracy was in the 10^11 range
ensuring simulation reliability.

A critical application is in the field of dilated cardiomyopathy where high resolution simulation
is used to evaluate the impact of new treatments.



It is possible to express the actual phenomena that are intricately happening in theatmosphere in the computer, enabling a more realistic environment.



To predict the future of weather conditions by using a supercomputer, numerical prediction has
become a key technology of modern meteorological service. Weather phenomena study
requires the ability to address various scales, and phase changes or emission of water, heat
conduction etc., involving complex physical processes, such as turbulence.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

17

The K Computer has enabled multi-scale heart simulation from the protein level. This has
contributed to basic medicine (elucidation of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy), and also
demonstrates the effectiveness of the clinical application of a simulation model developed forheart surgery.

It has enabled new discoveries that are not possible with using only animal experiments.



The K computer is not only as a flagship supercomputer, in addition to the computing power, it
is also important in terms of open innovation and human resource development.



Since it is not practical to experiment with building structures, reliable simulations are required.

Highly accurate molecular simulation becomes possible, and can applied to various proteins,enabling accurate biological response simulation. As a result, the mechanism of the drug
resistance of non-small cell lung cancer treatment drugs has been elucidated.



The K computer enabled the simulation of the formation process of galaxies that requires verylarge-scale calculations.

The importance of having access to the Post K-like supercomputer to theirresearch
Surveyed experts were in general agreement that a Post-K computer would offer many benefits:Many researchers believed that a more powerful system would enable new science, and areas
cited for new scientific development included personalized medicine, computational
astrophysics, molecular dynamics, and social simulation.

Others stated that a larger system would drive even better capabilities in existing areas ofcomputational studies, citing the benefits of a larger system to provide for more accurate
simulations, enhanced simulation resolution, reduced time to solution, and greater
opportunities for advanced multiscale research.



A third group indicated that a larger system would allow for more users to benefit from cheaper
access to such a capable system.

Finally, a number of HPC exports mentioned the need for Japan to remain on par with foreign leadingedge HPC developments, particularly those in the US, as a way to remain at the forefront of science,but to also ensure that Japanese technology does inadvertently flow overseas in international
cooperative efforts.

Key Quotes:


The Post K computer is required for the simulation in the time scale of biological reactions in
the millisecond level, a capability already achieved by the US.

The Post K computer would enable greater capabilities in personalized medicine.

Consistently between observation and simulation requires more accurate simulation.



Because the current K computer is still a scarce computing resource, there is a need forfurther high-speed computer access.

With a faster computer, it is possible to reduce the computational charge [cost] of a current
simulation by a factor of 100, creating a much lower simulation cost and one less expensive
than an experimental counterpart.



The Post K computer could help unlock the mystery of physics by calculation, and also solve
the celestial phenomenon of supernova explosions and neutron star binary star coalescence.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

18

In recent years, observation data has greatly increased, and because it is expected to become
an increasing critical element in the future simulations, it is necessary to have high-speed
computers that can accommodate these large and rapidly growing data sets

Simulation that supports coupled analysis of multi-physics can shorten the process ofcommercialization, which is very important for the international competitiveness of the coalgasification furnace process.



Simulation of 100,000 atoms cannot be absolutely done without K computer.



Many larger jobs can only be run one at a time on the K computer. The Post-K will enable theability to run a large number of such jobs at the same time.

When the simulation of 100 to 1,000 million atom is made possible, the virus of HIV andinfluenza can be simulated entirely.

We can simulate current scale simulation many times, improving accuracy and reliabilityIt will be possible to perform the entire system simulation in the electronic and molecular levelto complex a complex molecular and material process.



By increasing the scale of simulations, more accurate simulation become possible.

With better simulation speed, it is possible to drive an optimal solution easily, which in turn cangreatly reduce development time.

New applications of social simulation will be possible.

In the Post-K, it is sufficient to expand data sets, such as expanding the area under study
rather than speeding it up. There is a Nankai Trough earthquake special study of the Ministryof Education looking at ways to mitigate the damage. Evacuation simulation is also a major
theme.

With the Post K computer, simulations time will be deceased and calculations will be morestatically valid and reliable.



We have collaboration with The United States. When we have to use the resources of othercountries in the absence in Japan, we must be concerned about the leakage of technology.

How their CURRENT research would be impacted if they had to use regularclusters
Almost all surveyed HPC experts involved with the K computer were emphatic that a transition back to
the use of regular clusters would deeply limit, if not shut down, their current research activities. Many
simply stated that they would have to abandon their current efforts because the jobs that are now
critical to their research agendas would take too long, be too complex, or have too much data to
execute effectively on a regular cluster.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

19



Other HPC experts cited concerns that reliance on regularclusters would adversely affect the reliability, accuracy and eventhe fundamental validity of their existing simulations andsignificantly slow development of new ones.



Additionally, experts stressed that such a transitions would causea loss of capability vis a vis foreign counterpart research efforts,
a weakening ability to validate new models against empirical
data, decreased opportunities to do parametric studies, and an
overall slowdown in the development advanced software forJapanese HPC systems.



There were underlying concerns that issues with porting existingcode optimized for the K architecture to a new clusterarchitecture could be a long and likely unsatisfying task.

Surveyed HPC experts
involved with the K
computer were emphaticthat a transition back to
the use of regular clusters
would deeply limit, if not
shut down, their current
research activities.

Key Quotes:
Without a K computer we cannot be carry out calculations greater than on an order of 10^6.
We cannot evaluate the structure, and we cannot be assured of the quality of our simulations.
They will become sloppy simulations.

Comparisons with observational or empirical data will becomes difficult, and we will not beable to verify the validity of the simulations.



You will not be able to simulate the actual phenomenon without relying on using significant
assumptions.



Tailor-made medical care could not be done.

Although there will not be much impact on the actual research, it can be calculated that jobs
will take 10-100x times longer than they do currently.

In the standard type of cluster, our jobs will not fit into the memory. Or it cannot compute in apractical time. Therefore, it cannot compare with the large simulation performed without
experimentation.

It might be possible to calculate one case, but more than one case is impossible.

The performance hit would be roughly on a scale of 10 times.

It would require us to use partial simulations. We will not be able to perform simulations in arealistic time, forcing us to transition to low-precision software.



Small scale simulation running on either a cluster or a cloud would not be reliable. Or it
becomes impossible.



Since data set sizes have become huge, regular clusters are too small. It will not possible toanalyze more than ten thousand cases of the genome without a Post-K computer.



Use of regular clusters will make it difficult to continue the development of a computer mathlibrary that is matched with advances in computer architecture.

It becomes impossible to follow the precision of the observation data.



Theory would not keep up with the study of the experimental.

How their research would be impacted in 2020 if they had to use regularclusters
The bulk of surveyed HPC experts noted that in addition to the many concerns noted above, problems
that would arise into the 2020-time frame include:©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

20A general stagnation of Japan’s ability to develop leading-edge HPC hardware and software.
Such stagnation is seen as resulting in Japan falling behind other world-cases HPC
developers, particularly the US and China, resulting in an overall Japanese dependence on
foreign capabilities to support HPC-based research. Many believe that Japan would lose its
status as a world class HPC supplier and user nation.



A concomitant stagnation in Japan’s larger scientific and engineer capability due to a lack ofindigenous HPC development. The Japanese research community would be forced to find new
ways to conduct research that is not so reliant on HPCs.

Many indicate that such a decision could have a negative impact on Japanese HPC abilities that may
not become apparent for the next few years, but that could have implications well in the 2020’s andbeyond. Finally, some noted that such a drag on scientific and engineeringdevelopments would have a significant negative impact on many Japaneseindustries that are competing internationally.
Long-term reliance on

Key Quotes

regular clusters would
result in Japanese HPC
capabilities fallingbehind those of theUnited States andChina.

Long-term reliance on regular clusters would result in Japanese HPC
capabilities falling behind those of the United States and China.

If there is no K computer, we will need to find other means to conduct
our research, putting additional pressure on the scientific community tofind innovative solutions without HPCs.



Multi-physics analysis becomes impossible.

Japan’s ability in software optimization is top class in the world. Since
optimization research is an international issue, Japan would likely soon start to fall behind.

Rather than being immediately obvious, the impact would become most pronounced in 10
years.



Stagnation of computing technology will result in a drag on productivity and result in adecrease in Japanese industrial competitiveness worldwide.

Top-level research would become more difficult without leading-edge HPCs. There are many
research areas are that rely on very fast computer, and their lack would will limit the research.

Without leading-edge HPC development, Japan will not be able to not grow young talented
people.



You will not be able to perform highly accurate simulations, and eventually Japanese efforts
would lag behind in research teams from the United States and Europe.

How the Post-K Supercomputer Could Help Their Research
Surveyed HPC experts pointed to a number of ways that a Post-K computer would help their research.
Some inducted that a new system would open up a range of new areas of scientific research madecapable by a more powerful system, while others highlighted the positive impact a new system would
have to help improve the quality of the research they were already conducting.
New scientific fields of discovery mentioned included:All-atom molecular dynamics simulations of more than 10 million atoms to support
breakthroughs in the molecular theory of material science,

Simulations to determine the long-term effects of various drugs on heart patients, as the longterm health impact of heart surgery prior to the procedure©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

21high quality aerospace simulations capable of accurately modeling a wide range of take-off
and landing scenarios,and increased numerical modeming to ensure the lead time necessary to evacuate
populations during severe weather events and hydrological disasters such as river flooding, as
well as related debris flow predictions.

Expectations of technical performance improvements for a Post-K computer included performance
improvements of 100X over the current K computer, reducing the time for simulations that would
currently take a year down to only a few days, and facilitating the running of 100s of versions of a codethat can now only be run once on the K computer.
Finally, many experts noted that without a Post-K computer their ability to compete with other foreign
researchers who had access to larger systems would be hampered, and a few indicted thatdevelopment of a Post-K computer could help drive innovation within Japan’s semiconductor industry.

Key QuotesIn the area of molecular dynamics calculations, the US already has access to a system 100
times the speed of K computer.



Since it is possible to run several hundred cases with a Post-K computer, researchers will gaina better theoretical understanding of the universe.



Current simulation that would take one year with 400 nodes on K computer will be completed
in a few days on a Post-K computer.

A Post-K computer would enable a more thorough understanding of gravity waves that are
released in the coalescence process of neutron star binary stars, perhaps lending additional
insights into the origin of heavy elements, such as platinum, gold and silver.

For post-K, accurate models for beating of the heart from the motion of the particles of aminoacids can be calculated, creating the ability to generate a personalized medicine plan.

The basic concept of our research in the Post-K computer is a fusion of molecular simulationand organ simulation.



The availability of a Post-K computer offers the possibility of a seasonal forecast incorporating
the binding model of the atmosphere and the ocean. Such efforts could also help improve theprediction of El Niño.



The Post-K computer is important to maintain international competitiveness.

Clusters and cloud offer the potential for only limited simulations that may not
be sufficiently actuate or reliable for study.

The availability of a Post-K computer enables long-term cardiac simulation that
can help predict medical outcomes prior to surgery.



It is possible to study quasi-first-principles calculations at the time of take-off
and landing.

It will be able to perform all-atom molecular dynamics simulations of more than
10 million atoms, which can help establish the molecular theory underwriting
material science.

Japan's semiconductor industry is dying and will die without Post-K.



Post-K numerical models can ensure the lead time necessary to evacuate populations during
severe weather events or hydrological disasters such as river flooding and debris flow
predictions.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

The Post-K
computer isimportant tomaintaininternational
competitiveness22

It will support the discovery of new principles, which can lead to the development of new
substances material.

The importance to Japan of having a world class Post-K supercomputer
Surveyed HPC experts expressed a number of compelling - and diverse – reasons why Japan needs aworld class Post-K computer. Conversely, many provided ample comments as to the overall negative
effect the lack of such a system could have on Japan’s overall scientific and economic prospects.
Expert justification for a Post-K computer included:The critical ability to conduct sophisticated space-based simulations due to the limitations andcosts of counterpart experimental studies.

The consideration that a Post-K computer was absolutely necessary for Japan to maintain aworld-class HPC capability, seeming that is not possible if advanced systems are purchasedfrom overseas.

The perception that the Post-K computer would serve not only a flagship development from aperspective of compositing power, but also as a critical driver of innovation.



The need to develop a leading-edge HPC platform to drive human resource development andto establish a system of young researchers of education and cooperation.

Likewise, many were concerned about the implications of having no Post-K class systemdevelopment, and such concerns centered on Japan being unable to compete scientifically on theworld stage, serious disruptions to a wide range of on-going Japanese research efforts, the chilling
effect on leading-edge Japanese research going forward, and a lack of technological leadership that
the Japanese industrial sector can draw on to help them compete globally.

Key Quotes:
The development of a Post-K computer is absolutely necessary in orderto maintain Japan's presence as a leading-edge HPC developer anduser.

The development of a
Post-K computer isabsolutely necessary
in order to maintainJapan's presence as aleading-edge HPC
developer and user.

Because space-based experimentation is costly and complex, many
experiments can only be done computationally.



One can could buy an advanced HPC from abroad, but to have accessto the best possible systems, it is necessary to support the domestic
HPC supplier base.

The availability of a Post-K computer will lead to the strengthening of theindustrial capability of the country. It is very important as the K computerand Post-K computer are not only a flagship development in terms ofcomputing power, but it is also important in terms of open innovation and human resource
development.



The Post-K computer drives development of a wide range of leading-edge simulations criticalto keeping Japanese science at the highest level. Buying from abroad would be useless.



In order to enhance creativity and strengthen global industrial competitiveness, a cutting-edgemachine is essential.

Post-K computer development is extremely important in order to promote the Japanesetechnology. Having a state-of-the-art technology in their own country is important as a firstclass country. It is also important in order to go to create a young researcher of humanresource development.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

23

If there are scientific and economic achievements, it is good. But it is very important that thedevelopment establishes a system of young researchers of education and cooperation.



If there is a scientific achievement in the Post-K, the ripple effect could be very large.
Expectations for research in the enterprise is growing, and there is a very significant economic
effect.



If there is no post-K, we can run only jobs that anyone can do, and Japan
will fall behind in the world.



It is important to consider international competitiveness. In the West there isno such thing as a consortium targeted to build next-generation
supercomputer original. And, Japan is capable of looking out over preparefor 10 years.

In critical scientific fields using a computational approach is essential.
Because other countries will have more computing resources, Japan will
not be able to compete.



In the field of molecular simulation, the influence of Post-K computer isimmeasurable.



It is important not only for simulation. Such a project has helped to human resource
development, such as the education of students.

It will lag behind that in the world. In addition, if there is no Post-K computer, there are a lot ofareas that cannot be researched.



Since the K computer and Post-K computer has a performance after 10 years of a large
machine within the industrial sector, the industry can prepare in anticipation of 10 years.
Rather than the now of the economic effect, there is a need to look at the results after 10
years.

Supercomputer of ability is reflected in the national power.

The project is important to be able to secure the human resources. If cut, researchers would
have their work interrupted. Eventually Japan will lose the national power.

In the future, if there is no Post-K computer, the science of nuclear physics and astrophysics it
will not be led by Japan, but globally.



The Post-K computer will create differentiation of in industrial design making it possible forJapan’s shipbuilding industry to survive.



A Post-K computer and the scientific results it enables will help spread Japanese technology
abroad, and help to cultivate an international network of fellow researchers.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

If there is no PostK computer, we
can run only jobs
that anyone cando, and Japan will
fall behind in theworld.

24

FINANCIAL ROI RESULTS
World scientific leadership and innovation leadership are becoming more dependent on the use of
HPC/supercomputers every year. Economic leadership increasingly directly results from a nation's oran industry's or an enterprise's application of supercomputers in innovative and productive ways. Many
countries/regions (such as USA, Japan, China, Russia, Europe, and other Asian countries) are putting
into place plans to gain leadership in innovation and economic progress by more broadly applying
HPC/supercomputing across many different industries and segments.

IDC's HPC ROI Approach
IDC created a set of ROI models to show the impact of investments in HPC. The models include boththe financial ROI (Return on Investment) returns and the innovation ROR (Return on Research)
returns from projects done on supercomputers. The results of this research is published at:
www.idc.com/ROI (IDC copyright study)
The pilot ROI study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve
economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research is focused on the common goodand should be useful to all HPC centers around the world. The study created two unique economic
models and an innovation index:


A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic
advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs.



A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and appliedinnovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size.

A new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels.

Key findings of the pilot study included:

IDC was able to collect the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enoughdetail to create the economic models and the innovation index.



Early results indicate very substantial returns for investments in HPC:


$356.5 on average in revenue per dollar of HPC invested$38.7 on average of cost savings per dollar of HPC invested

The average number of years before returns started was 1.9 years.

The average HPC investment per innovation was $3.1 million.

Note that an additional outcome of this research is an expansive list of HPC success stories

The Definition Of The Investments Used In The Study
For both this study and IDC's overall tracking of ROI and ROR around the world, the "HPC
Investments" are the costs to use the HPC system for just the project in each example. The overall
guideline used in the study, is that the inputs are the “Actual” or “Equivalent” costs for a researcher intheir country, in their industry, in their organization. For the K and Post-K computer, costs include theresearch budget, labor cost, and equivalent charge of use (K computer :14.53JPY per node hour).
For International researchers, most academic and government sites, such as NSF and ORNL, provide
the HPC resources for free or for a very small charge, like only the operational costs – power andcooling costs. Large companies like banks, car companies or oil companies sometimes charge a full
allocation of the hardware, software, power, building, etc. costs.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

25

Revenue and Cost Savings
For this study, revenues are the value of the sales that have been (or may in the future) generated
from the research project. For example, the design of a new tire, the design of a new car, creating new
medical treatment, better understanding of financial instruments, etc.
Cost savings include research projects that generate a savings that would not have happened without
the results of the project. These can vary greatly and include things like: better building designs tobetter withstand the impacts of earth quakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc.; better drugs to reduce thecosts of healthcare; better ways to apply drugs to reduce the costs of giving costly drugs to people that
it won't help, etc.
In some cases, both revenues and cost savings are generated, but in most cases its primarily either
revenues or cost savings.

Overall Financial ROI Results in Japan
This study provides over 100 new financial ROI & innovation ROR examples, that were combined withprevious examples to create the tables below. This study located 29 financial ROI examples and 117
innovation examples.
The combined total financial value of the K system was an amazing $9.6 billion US dollars for the
projects in this study. Note that there are many other projects on the K system, so the full value would
be much higher. Looking at both the K and Post-K systems, the overall value financial values exceeds$19 billion US dollars, for just the examples in this study.
As shown in Table 4:

The total revenue return on the K Computer was a very strong $2.7 billion US dollars -– plus an
outstanding amount of cost savings of $6.9 billion US dollars. This represents one of thehighest returns on a supercomputer. (Note that the actual return is much higher, as this is only
for the researchers that participated in this study).

The projected revenue returns on the Post-K Computer is an extremely strong $5.1 billion US
dollars – plus an outstanding amount of cost savings of $5 billion US dollars. This represents
one of the highest returns on a supercomputer. (Note that the actual return is much higher, as
this is only for the researchers that participated in this study).



Looking at the rate-of-returns, the K computer provides 571 dollars in revenues (on average)
for each dollar invested, and 278 dollars in cost savings for each dollar invested.
This is much higher than the rest of the world, which is at $356.5 on average inrevenue per dollar of HPC invested, and $38.7 on average of cost savings per dollar of
HPC invested

Looking at the rate-of-returns, the Post-K computer provides an outstanding 398 dollars inrevenues (on average) for each dollar invested, and 234 dollars in cost savings for each dollar
invested.
©2016 RIKEN

This is also much higher than the rest of the world, which is at $356.5 on average inrevenue per dollar of HPC invested, and $38.7 on average of cost savings per dollar of
HPC invested#US42030216

26

Table 4
Financial ROI From HPC in Japan
Combined Revenue& Cost Savings

ROI Revenues
($M)

($M)

Average of
Revenue $ per
HPC $ROI Cost
Saving($M)

Average of
Cost Saving$ per HPC $Japan K

$9,578$2,690$571$6,888$278

Japan Post-K$10,050$5,100$398$4,950

$234

Total

$19,628$7,790$423$11,838$251

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

27

SCIENTIFIC INNOVATION RESULTS
Innovation Areas
The benefits of HPC usage are not limit to financial ROI, new scientific innovations are an important
type of benefit for HPC users in government, academia, and industry. Table 5 shows the major typesof beneficial innovations reported to IDC by the Japanese organizations we interviewed for this study,
along with the average investment needed for each innovation type. Some but by no means all
innovations result immediately in "better products." As the table indicates, there were some of those,
but the largest number of reported innovations were in the "created new approach" category.

Table 5Innovation Areas: For ALL Innovation ROR Projects in Japan
Primary Innovation/ROI Area

K Computer
Average of HPC $M
per Innovation

K Computer
Count ofAccomplishments

Post-K Computer
Average of HPC$M per Innovation

Post-K Computer
Count ofAccomplishments

Better Products

$3.61

9

$1.98

8

Cost Saving

$0.63

3

$3.75

5

Created New Approach

$2.27

34

$1.52

23

Discovered Something New

$1.11

9

$1.75

8

Helped Research Program

$1.75

1

--

--

Helped Society

$1.38

10

2.18757Overall Total

$2.18

66

$1.93

51

Source: IDC 2016

Innovations by Sector
Most of the reported Japanese innovations were in the academic and government market sectors, but
the HPC investment per innovation did not differ greatly for the industry examples (see Table 6).

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

28

Table 6
Japanese Innovations by Sector
SectorK Computer Averageof HPC $M per
Innovation

K Computer Count of
Basic/AppliedInnovations

Post-K Computer
Average of HPC $M
per Innovation

Post-K System Countof Basic/AppliedInnovations

Academic

$1.82

43

$1.08

34

Government

$2.79

18

$2.89

16

Industry

$1.75

5

N/A

1

Overall Total

$2.18

66

$1.93

51

Source: IDC 2016

Mix of Innovation Types in Japan
Table 7 shows that IDC collected a balanced mix of innovations in basic science and applied science.
Not surprisingly, the basic science innovations on average required HPC investments that were nearly
twice as large as those made for applied research—most likely because basic science innovations
typically are more consequential and require more time and effort than their applied science
counterparts.

Table 7Mix of Innovation Types in Japan
Basic or Applied

K Computer Averageof HPC $M per
Innovation

K Computer Count of
Basic/AppliedInnovations

Post-K Computer
Average of HPC $M
per Innovation

Post-K System Countof Basic/AppliedInnovations

Applied

$1.65

26

$2.15

19

Basic

$2.46

38

$1.58

30

Both

$2.31

2

$2.75

2

Overall Total

$2.18

66

$1.93

51

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

29

Innovations in the Study by Country
Table 8 shows the mix of innovations collected in this study. Note that this table shows thedemographics of the surveys, and is NOT meant to show any differences in innovations or innovation
capability by country. IDC has collected 389 real-world examples of HPC-supported innovation, of
which 203 are in basic science and the remaining 190 in applied science. We collected 117 innovation
examples in Japan, 72 in basic science and 49 in applied science. See Table 8. Note that in the table a
few innovations in Japan were rated as BOTH basic and applied innovations.

Table 8
Number of Innovation Examples in the Study
CountryCount of Applied Innovations

Count of Basic Innovations

Total Count of Innovations

China

30

41

71

France

10

1

11

UK

20

53

73

US

70

32

102

Italy

6

0

6

K computer

28

40

68

Post K computer

21

32

53

Others545Overall Total

190

203

389

Source: IDC 2016

Rating the Importance and Impacts of the Innovations
While all innovations are important, it is useful to be able to rank innovations to better understand how
to increase the higher value innovations over time. IDC created two sub-scales that are then combined
into an overall innovation class scale to help measure and show these differences. This is also usefulin comparing the results of different research organizations around the world in applying HPC to
improve innovativeness. One must always keep in mind that the primary driver of innovation comesfrom the researchers, and not from the tools that they use.
IDC use two scales to rate the importance (Figure 1) and impacts (Figure 2) of each innovation (andTable 9). IDC developed these measurement scales for the successful study on returns from HPC
investments that we conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). DOE was pleased withthese scales and asked IDC to conduct an even larger study using them. IDC then combines these into
an overall rating.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

30

Most of the Japanese HPC-supported innovations were determined by our external review committee
to be at high-importance levels. 64% of the innovations were in the highest-importance "5" category,and 96% were at levels 3-5.

FIGURE 1
Innovation Index #1 Importance (For Japan)

Source: IDC 2016

A large majority of the Japanese innovation also had very high beneficial impacts. 86% of theinnovations were judged to be in the highest-impact "6" category, and a very impressive 91% of theJapanese innovations were at levels 4-6 of beneficial impact.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

31

Table 9Innovation Ratings: For Japanese Innovations
Rating Level

K Computer Count of
New Innovation Index#1 Importance

K Computer Count of
New Innovation Index#2 No. Org's Impacted

Post-K Count of New
Innovation Index #1
ImportancePost-K Count of New
Innovation Index #2
No. Org's Impacted

6

N/A

41

N/A

39

5

30

13

42

6

4

13

4

5

2

3

16

5

2

1

2

4

3

0

1

1

3

0

0

0

Overall Total

66

66

49

49

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

32

FIGURE 2
Innovation Index #2 Number of Organization's Impacted (For Japan)

Source: IDC 2016

Rating the Overall Value Of The Innovations
The Innovation Class Levels Used in the Study
IDC has created a new HPC innovation rating system that is based on combining two sub-scales: theimportance and the impact rating scales, into an over innovation class level scale. While all
innovations are important and useful, innovations that are class 1, 2 or 3 are clearly the most importantinnovations in the world,

Rating Scale:Class 1 innovations – One of the top 2-3 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to over 10 organizations
Class 2 innovations -- One of the top 5 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to over 10 organizations


These are the top types of innovations, useful to many and clearly breakthroughsin the area of research

These are also top types of innovations, useful to many and clearly breakthroughsin the area of researchClass 3 innovations – One of the top 5 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 5 organizations©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

33




Class 4 innovations – One of the top 10 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 5 organizations


These are important innovations, but only useful to a few organizations andrepresent useful discoveries in the area of researchClass 7 innovations – One of the top 50 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 2 organizations


These are important innovations, useful to a number of organizations andrepresent useful discoveries in the area of researchClass 6 innovations – One of the top 25 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at least 2 organizations


These are important innovations, useful to a number of organizations andrepresent breakthroughs or new discoveries in the area of researchClass 5 innovations – One of the top 25 innovations in a field over the last ten years PLUS
useful to at over 10 organizations


These are very important types of innovations, useful to a number of organizations
and some of the top breakthroughs in the area of research

These are important innovations, but only useful to a few organizations, and areoften minor innovations

Class 8 innovations – The rest of the innovations in the studyThese are useful innovations, but only useful to very few organizations, and areoften minor or incremental innovations

Ratings of the Japanese Innovations
Figure 3 and Table 12 display the combined ratings of the Japanese innovations collected for thisstudy, using a scale that takes into consideration both the importance and impact ratings discussed
above. As Figure 3 shows, a high proportion of the Japanese examples qualified as Class 1
innovations, the most impressive category. Looking at the top three class levels, Japan has done an
outstanding job at generating important innovations.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

34

FIGURE 3
Overall Rating CLASS Levels of Japanese Innovations

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

35

Table 10
Overall Rating of Japanese Innovations
Overall Count of Innovations

K Computer

Post-K Computer

Class 1

62

23

39

Class 24

3

1Class 322

16

6Class 419

16

3

Class 53

30Class 600

0Class 7550Overall Total

115

66

49

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

36

HOW JAPAN FINANCIAL ROI RESULTS COMPARE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD

Financial ROI in Revenues
Figure 4 and Table 11 compare Japan and other countries around the worldin terms of revenue ROI. The results are impressive, with the K computer and
the Post-K computer exhibiting very high returns in terms of revenue
generating projects. The revenue ROI is an outstanding $423 per dollar
invested in HPC for both the K and Post-K computers (and from Table 1 avery high 571 per dollar invested in HPC for the K computer). The closest
other countries are France at $593 and the UK at $730. Japan is over 50
times higher than China.

The results are impressive,with the K computer and the
Post-K computer exhibiting
very high returns in terms ofrevenue generating projects

FIGURE 4
Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: In Revenue ROI

Source: IDC 2016

Table 11
Financial ROI From HPC by Country: Revenues
Country

Average of Revenue $ per HPC $

China

$10

France

$593

UK

$730

US

$373

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

37

Table 11
Financial ROI From HPC by Country: Revenues
Country

Average of Revenue $ per HPC $

Italy

$10

K

$571

Post K$398

Others$15

Overall Total$454

Source: IDC 2016

Financial ROI in Cost savings
Figure 5 and Table 12 shows that Japan overall exhibits the highest returns in termsof cost saving projects. The closest other country is France at $98. Japan isapproximately 35 times higher than China in cost saving ROI. IDC believes thatJapan's strong ROI results in cost savings category are especially high because noother country, not even the U.S., has learned how to apply HPC technology as
effectively to support industry and reduces costly impacts. Japan was a pioneer in
extending HPC to a variety of key business-to-business and consumer products
industries, starting in the 1980s. Driven by the focus on high-impact projects of all
sizes in areas like disaster research and in highly important bio-medical research
projects, such as earthquake disasters, tsunami impacts on buildings, or deciding
who should get very expensive anti-cancer drugs.

Japan's projects
clearly generate
the highest level offinancial costsavings ROI whencompared to othercountries.

HPC cost savings ROI varied from a low of $10 in cost savings per dollar invested for
China and Italy, to a high of $423 for the K and Post-K computers combined. Japan's projects clearly
generate the highest level of financial cost saving ROI when compared to other countries. Any level
above $10 to $15 dollars per dollar invested is a healthy return.
The results for Japan and all other countries confirm that investments in HPC technology typically
produce strong financial returns.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

38

FIGURE 5
Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: In Cost Savings ROI

Source: IDC 2016

Table 12Financial ROI From HPC by Country: Cost Savings
Country

Average of Cost Saving $ per HPC $

China

$7

France

$98

UK

$48

US

$39

Italy

$8

K

$278

Post K$234

Others$33

Overall Total$67

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

39

HOW JAPAN INNOVATIVENESS COMPARES TO THE REST OF THE
WORLD
Where innovation is concerned, Japan also greatly outranks other countries. As
Figure 6 indicates, a much higher percentage of the Japanese innovations
qualified in category 5, as one of the top 2 to 3 innovations of the last decade.

Where innovation isconcerned, Japan
greatly outranks
other countries

FIGURE 6
Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Innovation Importance Ratings

Source: IDC 2016

Japan's superior position also extends to the impact of HPC-driven innovations (Figure 7). A far
greater percentage of the Japanese innovation examples qualified as "useful to over 10 organizations"than the other examples.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

40

FIGURE 7
Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Organizations Impacted

Source: IDC 2016

Figure 8 shows Japan's large advantage over the rest of the world, and China when it
comes to HPC-enabled scientific innovation. Using the IDC innovation class ratings,
Japan has two times the ratio of Class 1 innovations compared to the USA, and over
five times China. Japan's rating using the IDC innovation class scale are truly
impressive.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

Japan's rating
using the IDC
innovation classscale are truly
impressive.

41

FIGURE 8
Japan Compared to the Rest of the World: Overall Innovation Class Ratings

Source: IDC 2016

Notes:
IDC analyzed the reasons why the ROR of the Post-K is particularly high:

The K and Post-K computers are targeted at solving very important and Challenging problems.



The project is designed to provide leadership capabilities to researchers -- as a unified projectwith hardware development, system development, and research utilization in order tocontinuously advance the computational science technology developed in K computer towards
the Post-K computer.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

42

Japan Compared to China in Leadership Computing
Japan has an HPC technical community, and an HPC scientific and industrial user base, that are much
more experienced than their Chinese counterparts. For this reason, Japanese leadership-classsupercomputers have been much more productive, and much better able to support advanced
innovation, than supercomputers in China — even in cases where the Chinese computers rank higher
on the Top 500 supercomputers list.
The results of this study shows how Japan is much better at getting value from its largest
supercomputers when compared to China. Japanese HPC investments produced on average over
40% times more revenue than their Chinese counterparts and more than 35 times greater costsavings.
Where innovation is concerned, Japan also greatly outranks China. A much higher percentage of theJapanese innovations qualified in category 5, as one of the top 2 to 3 innovations of the last decade.
Using the IDC innovation class ratings, Japan has over 8 times as many class 1 innovations compared
to China.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

43

EXAMPLES OF THE SUCCESS FROM THE RIKEN SUPERCOMPUTERS

Summary of Key Success Stories
From the K computer

If the development of the genomic abnormality detection kit is successful, it will be sold at
about 100,000 yen per kit. If 100 million people cancer patients were tested in one year, it
would generate sales of 1,000 billion yen.

The project lead to the development of a new drug for colorectal
cancer.

This simulation software enabled the possibility of re-opening
nuclear power plants that are currently stopped or shut down.
Maintaining shuttered nuclear power plants costs about 1.4 trillion
yen annually in Japan and through this project, it may be possible
to reduce a part of that overhead.

It takes 35 million yen per cancer patients with the treatment of
the drug Nivolumab. However, because Nivolumab is only
effective in about 20% of patients, the development of a genomic
abnormality screening/detection kit could save hundreds ofbillions of yen on unnecessary - and ineffective - use of the drug.

Generally, the development of the new drug is costs about 100
billion yen leading up to clinical trials. That cost can be reduced
about 90% through the use of advanced computer simulation.

Advanced simulations can reduce by about 20 billion yen the combined cost for wind tunnel
experiment per year, or about 1.8 billion yen per wind tunnel per year.

If the development of the
genomic abnormality
detection kit is successful,it will be sold at about
100,000 yen per kit. If 100
million people cancer
patients were tested in
one year, it would
generate sales of 1,000
billion yen.

Possible from the Post-K computerOverall drug development costs could be reduced by about 20 billion yen per drug.

Development of advanced gasification furnaces with reduced emissions of carbon dioxide,
could result in saving of about 81 billion yen in five years.

In order to create a newly designed aircraft it typically takes five prototype models. In the caseof MRJ, flight test costs were about 100 billion yen. With a new HPC, it may be possible toreduce that cost to about 80 billion yen by needing only one aircraft prototype.



If they succeed to develop new drug, annual sales will be over 100 billion yen and it will help toreduce national health care budget.

When the gasification furnace is realized, the construction costs will be over 140 billion yen per
power plant. For five power plants the sales will be around 700 billion yen.

Selected Mini-Case Studies of Successful K computer Projects
Case Study #1 Research Area: Biology, Precision Medicine
Research Institution: University of Kyoto, Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Pathology andTumor Biology
What the Project Accomplished: Emerging evidence of dramatic effects of immune-checkpoint
blockade in many advanced cancer patients is highlighting the importance of cancer immune evasion,©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

44

which is expected to be a plausible target for the development of novel cancer therapy. However, theexact mechanism of cancer immune evasion has not fully been elucidated, the understanding of whichis thus one of the important issues for the development of cancer immune therapy. In the current postK computer, we analyzed a large amount of sequencing data from more than 10,000 cancer samples
using the post-K computer and successfully identified a novel mechanism by which cancer cells
escape immunity. In some cancers, abnormalities of the PD-L1 gene lead to markedly elevatedexpression of PD-L1, through which cancer cells effectively escape anti-cancer immunity. The finding
is drawing an increasing attention in the field of cancer immunity. This study has been enabled only
through high-throughput computing of cancer sequencing data using the post-K computer.
How the Project Helped the World: Although found in less than 1% of all cancer patients, the relevant
abnormality of PD-L1 is thought to be affecting dozens of thousands of patients overall. Because
immune-checkpoint blockade is expected to be especially effective to the cancers having thisabnormality, an effective use of costly immune-checkpoint antibodies will be enabled by targeting thisabnormality to find those patients in whom a promising response to these antibodies is expected.

Case Study #2 Research Area: Computer Drug Discovery
Research Institution: Kyoto University, Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Biomedical DataIntelligence
What the Project Accomplished: Researcher expanded their capabilities in computational drug
discovery, offering up significant saving and opening up new avenues of drug discovery research.
The pharmaceutical industry is facing soaring drug development costs and increasing difficulties withnew drug discovery. The use of advanced simulations is critical to the development of innovative
research methods that underwrite such drug discovery. For example, calculating the strength of thebond between the proteins for 150 amino compounds that would require more than 20 years on a
general purpose machine, now takes only about a week on the K computer. Researchers estimate thatcomputationally-based drug discovery could reduce costs by 20 billion yen for a single drug
development
How the Project Helped the World: Researchers indicated that the value of the K computer is morethan just its use as a flagship system with world-class computing capabilities, but that it also serves asa driver of open innovation and human resource development.

Case Study #3 Research Area: Computational Multiphysics Heart Simulation
Research Institution: University of Tokyo/UT-Heart Inc.
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers developed a multi-scale multi-physics heart simulator.
The K computer supported development of a multiscale heart simulation fusing molecular and organ
scales -- allowing researchers to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new simulation in clinicalapplications to help model patient-specific outcomes from heart surgery as well as to guide physicians’
strategies on post-operative care.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

45

How the Project Helped the World: Based on these efforts, researchers will now be better able to craftpatient-specific procedures for the treatment of heart failure, as well as be able to more effectively
screen for drugs that do not cause harmful, or even fatal, side effects..

Case Study #4 Research Area: Quantum Hadron Physics/Lattice QCD
Research Institution: RIKEN, Nishina Center for Accelerator-Based Science, Quantum Hadron Physics
Laboratory
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers expanded the bounds of understanding on the
microscopic structure of the atomic nuclei on the basis of the large scale numerical simulations of
nuclear forces with elementary particles. Such a computationally intensive research effort was notpossible without the computer capabilities of a K-class supercomputer.
How the Project Helped the World: The result not only extended the understanding of particle andnuclear physics, but also can be applied to wider fields such as astrophysics, so that it shed new lighton the origin of matter in the Universe.

Case Study #5 Research Area: Molecular Science
Research Institution: Nagoya University, Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Applied
Chemistry
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers developed a high-resolution model of both the poliovirus
and hepatoma B virus in solution consisting of up to 10 million atoms in order to clarify the nature of
the virus and establish a knowledge foundation that can significantly contribute to the development of
more effective antiviral agents.
How the Project Helped the World: With high resolution models enabled by the availability of a K classsupercomputer, researchers were able to establish a method which enables complete simulations of
HIV and influenza virus structure across a number of time steps, offering the promise of improved viralresearch well beyond the capabilities achievable through traditional experimental studies.

Case Study #6 Research Area: Solid-Liquid Interface Of Lithium-Ion Batteries
Research Institution: National Institute of Material Science, Center for Green Research on Energy andEnvironmental Materials (GREEN), Interface Computational Science Group
What the Project Accomplished: High-precision first-principles calculations of electrode-electrolyte
interface in Lithium-ion battery. Researchers demonstrated the structures and properties of theinterface films at high resolution. The outputs will give an important insight into the control of thebattery performance and reliability.
How the Project Helped the World: These microscopic understandings play crucial roles not only forthe progress of fundamental electrochemistry but also for new breakthroughs in battery technology,
which will strengthen industrial competitiveness in Japan.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

46

Case Study #7 Research Area: Multi-Physics Simulation for Energy
Research Institution: University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Department of System Innovation
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers used the computational capabilities of the K computers
to develop a coal gasifier furnace simulation package that can analyze the complex coupled analysisof the multi-physics gasification process, allowing for the optimization of furnace design andsubsequent operating conditions. This can result in the development of more efficient, cleaner-burning
gas furnaces that through the reduction in released carbon dioxide emissions could realize a total
domestic cost savings of over 80 billion yen in five years.
Potential Returns:


Revenues (sales) -- When the gasification furnace is realized, the construction revenue will beover 140 billion yen per power plant. If in five years 5 power plants are built, revenues could
reach 700 billion yen in sales.

How the Project Helped the World: The availability of the gasifier simulation software could have wide
spread influence on the manufacturer of the gasifier used in electric power plants around the world thatwould be able to provide cleaner and cheaper coal-produced energy.

Case Study #8 Research Area: Computational Material Science
Research Institution: National Institute of Material Science, International Center for Materials
Nanoarchitectonics
What the Project Accomplished: The researchers developed an advanced first-principle molecular
dynamics package that supports better process analysis on next-generation semiconductor device
necessary to the development of the higher performance and lower power consumption. The use of
the K computer enabled the developers to explore beyond the traditional simulations thatencompassed a limited model verified by experimental results and instead explore complete
simulations of the true physical phenomenon.
How the Project Helped the World: New insights gained from the effort, along with the resulting
software, will greatly assist researchers across a number of material science disciplines.

Case Study #9, Research Area: Weather Research
Research Institution: University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Center for Earth
Surface System Dynamics, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Section
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers for the first time were able to conduct long-term
simulations of more than 30 years at high resolution to support near future predictions of typhoons.
How the Project Helped the World: The accuracy of predicting future changes of typhoons was greatly
improved, so it now becomes possible to obtain important information such as area information where
potential damage can be expected, so that it become possible to improve evacuation plans, etc.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

47

Case Study #10 Research Area: Mesoscale (Intermediate) Research
Research Institution: Meteorological Research Institute
What the Project Accomplished: This study demonstrated the plausibility of an ultra-high precision
mesoscale weather forecast that can improve the lead time required for implementing
countermeasures prior to the occurrence of severe weather events. Because most severe weather
phenomena that leads to a disaster are related to cumulonimbus, researchers developed prediction
methods based on the cloud resolving model which can express the cumulonimbus clouds moreaccurately. To increase the value of the weather prediction, it is important to quantitatively estimate theforecast error due to uncertainty of the initial condition or the numerical model. These research
improvements were first realized by using the K-computer.

How the Project Helped the World: Better and more reliable prediction of hazardous weathers canprovide targeted information to take effective countermeasures to reduce both property damage andhuman causalities.

Case Study #11 Research Area: Mathematical Data Assimilation
Research Institution: University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Division of Disaster
Mitigation Science
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers developed a simultaneous simulation technique forearthquake ground motion and tsunami. With the use of the available data from ocean bottom tsunami
cable recording system recently deployed across the Pacific Ocean, an efficient data analysis
technique to understand the earthquake fault movement and the cause of strong ground motion andtsunami was achieved by the K computer.
How the Project Helped the World: The clarification of the cause of huge tsunami from the off the 2011
Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake significantly improved the prediction accuracy of strong groundmotion and tsunami expecting for the Nankai trough earthquake, leading to a realistic earthquake
disaster prevention plan based on highly reliable simulations.

Case Study #12 Research Area: Automotive Aerodynamic Simulation
Research Institution: Kobe University, Graduate School of System Informatics, Department ofComputational Science, Computational Fluid Dynamics Laboratory & RIKEN, Advanced Institute for
Computational Science, Research Division, Complex Phenomena Unified Simulation Research Team.
What the Project Accomplished: Researchers developed an advanced digital automotive wind tunnel,
that that can reduce costly wind tunnel testing in the design of new vehicles by a total of about 20
billion yen for all wind tunnel experiments or 1.8 billion yen per wind tunnel per year within Japanalone.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

48

How the Project Helped the World: This project could help the Japanese car industry compete more
effectively in a wider international market with more efficient, lower cost, and more reliable cars.

CONCLUSION

The K computer Has Been A Major SuccessThis study confirmed that many Japanese researchers have benefitted greatly from using the
K computer and are ready to advance their work and tackle even more challenging problems
on a more powerful Post-K computer.



We are firmly convinced that developing a more powerful successor to the K computer is well
worth the investment.



The K computer has demonstrated that leadership-class supercomputers can produce returns
far in excess of the amounts needed to fund them—and confirms that without competitive
leadership-class computers, considerable scientific competitiveness would be lost.

Impact on Japanese Researchers of Not Having Post-K computerAlmost all surveyed HPC experts involved with the K computer were emphatic that a transition
back to the use of regular clusters would deeply harm, and in some cases shut down, theircurrent research activities.


Many stated that they would have to abandon their current efforts because the jobs thatare now critical to their research agendas would take too long, be too complex, or have toomuch data to execute effectively in a regular cluster or cloud environment.

Researchers stressed that such a transition would cause a loss of capability vis-a-vis foreigncounterpart research efforts.

How Post-K computer Stands Out Among Leadership Projects Around theWorldThe results of this study shows how Japan is much better at getting value from its largest
supercomputers when compared to the rest of the world.



Where innovation is concerned, Japan also greatly outranks most other countries.


A much higher percentage of the Japanese innovations qualified as Class 1 innovations.



Using the IDC innovation class ratings, Japan has over 8 times as many class 1
innovations compared to China.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

49

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Plans and Expectations for the Post-K computerThis section describes how Japanese users of the K computer plan or expect to use a more powerful
successor supercomputer (called the Post-Km supercomputer).

Planned Areas of Research on the Post-K supercomputer
Japanese researchers surveyed for this study have high expectations for a new Post-K classsupercomputer that spans a wide range of scientific disciplines, academic areas and industrial
applications. Areas of noted interest included but were not limited to:Energy issues, including solar cells, batteries, and coal gasifier furnaces,Materials studies including high temperature superconductors

Earth studies including magnetic field and global climate modeling

Astrophysics including the coalescence of supernova explosions and neutron star binary starmodels in both long-term and high resolution

Medical studies including multiphysics heart simulation, cancer drugs, precision medicine,

Simulation techniques including quantum Monte Carlo techniques, molecular dynamics
simulation, fluid dynamics for aircraft simulation, and social simulation.

Example Post-K computer Projects:Application of the tailor-made medical care with heart simulatorApplied to the development of the fuel cell of the functional analysis approach in the composite
materialBuilding materials databaseContinue to develop RSDFT software for The scale, precision and time axes. Finally develop
Device Simulator and Process Simulator.

Control of solar cells of non-equilibrium stateControl of the topological insulator

Development of battery simulator

Development of Coal Gasifier Furnace Simulation software

Development of MACE (Multi-scale Ab initio scheme for Correlated Electrons) software

Development of Next Generation of Multi-Scale Multi-Physics Heart Simulator

Development of photosynthesis simulator

Development of the innovative drug Discovery Infrastructure by the function control of thebiological molecule system

Elucidation of the drug-resistant mechanism of the non-small cell lung cancer therapeutic drugElucidation of the nanowire properties and boundary surface structure

Establishment of material design approachHigh accuracy of the data assimilation of the global modelHigh temperature superconductors simulation of copper oxide

Precision medicine. Such as the development of biomarkers and companion reagents.

Improve Functionality of MODYLAS©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

50



Improvement of the quantum Monte Carlo method program

Calculation of the force acting between elementary particles. Determination the baryon force inthe world's highest accuracy in lattice QCD calculations. Such simulations will be used tosimulate the celestial phenomenon of coalescence of supernova explosions and neutron starbinary star in the long-term and high resolution.

It takes between 3-4 days in the current K computer for single simulation. Because going to be
the one hundred-fold performance in "post-K", it is possible to run hundred cases in about one
week.



Molecular dynamics calculations in the high-temperature and high-pressureNTChem continued development

Social Simulation

The development of multi-scale thermoplastic CFRP molding simulator

The development of traffic-related simulator



The FF-VHC, which has been developed to study the era of development K computer of thecore technology to realize the design and operational techniques of aircraft to develop the FFVHC-COMP for high-speed fluid.

The magnetic field simulation in K computer is not considered, by considering the magnetic
field in the post-K, different outcomes to a new qualitative expected.

Transition temperature change simulation



A six-dimensional simulation with good accuracy which can reproduce Phenomenon byobservation

Summary of the Expected Financial ROI Results from the Post-K computerThis study confirms that the current K computer has contributed greatly to the advancement of scienceand industry in Japan—the study quantified these contributions in the form of financial ROI andinnovations. IDC also asked the study respondents how they might exploit a substantially more
powerful Post-K computer. As the lists in the preceding section of this report indicate, nearly all of the
respondents described specific projects a more powerful Post-K computer would enable them topursue. Based on these responses, IDC is confident that a Post-K computer would be heavily utilized
by researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines, and that a Post-K computer would enablefinancial ROI results at least as impressive as those Japanese researchers have achieved using thecurrent K computer.
From just these projects, the value of the K computer exceeds $9 billion (inrevenues and cost savings), and $10 billion for the Post-K computer.
For the Japanese ROI accomplishments collected in this study, the overall
financial return on investment averaged an extremely strong $423 dollars inrevenue per dollar invested in HPC (for the K and Post-K computerscombined). On average these projects generated cost savings of an extremely
high amount of $251 dollars in cost savings per dollar invested in HPC.

From just these projects,
the value of the K
computer exceeds $9billion (in revenues andcost savings), and $10
billion for the Post-K
computer.

The total revenues generated from this sample of research projects on the K
computer was very strong at over $2.6 billion, and extremely strong for the
Post-K computer at over $5 billion dollars. In addition, the cost savings were equally impressive, atover $6.9 billion with the K computer and $5 billion planned for the Post-K computer. Note that theactual amounts are much higher, as this is only a subset of the projects on these systems.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

51

Planned Innovation ROR (Return on Research) Results from the Post-K
computerGiven the long list of non-financial innovation projects provided to IDC by K computer users, it isequally reasonable to assume that a Post-K computer would enable many further innovations of equal
importance for Japanese science, Japanese industry, and Japanese society. Some of these
innovations would be based on a continuation of researchers' work that would not be possible without
a computer more powerful than the current K computer. Other innovative work could not be started on
the K computer and would only become feasible on a more powerful Post-K computer.

How the Post-K computer Compares to Leadership Projects around the World
IDC has closely tracked global HPC technology and market developments for more than 25 years. We
believe that today, the U.S. and Japan have the strongest experience and qualifications for developing
future leadership-class supercomputers that are capable of effectively supporting a broad range of themost challenging scientific and industrial problems.
The results of this study shows how Japan is much better at getting value from its largest
supercomputers when compared to the rest of the world. Where innovation is concerned, Japan also
greatly outranks most other countries. A much higher percentage of the Japanese innovations qualified
as Class 1 innovations. Using the IDC innovation class ratings, Japan has over 8 times as many class
1 innovations compared to China.
Here is how IDC views countries/regions that are pursuing exascale computing:

The United States has exceptional technical skills for achieving this goal and will almost surely
do so by 2023-2024 (sustained exaflop).

Japan has a comparable high level of skills for achieving this important goal, but the Japanese
government's willingness to fund this effort is uncertain.

The European Union is determined to be a strong contender in the exascale race, because it
recognizes HPC's key role for scientific and economic competitiveness, but the EU has noclear path yet for enabling the 28 member states to pool money for this effort.



China's government seems certain to fund exascale development in order to continue China's
claim to having the world's faster supercomputer, so funding should not be an issue. But China
does not yet have the high level of technical skills needed to produce an exascale computerthat can support a wide range of scientific and industrial problems.

Japan's advantages in the exascale race include the following:A long history of developing and using highly innovative, leadership-class supercomputers in awide variety of scientific and industrial domainsStrong, mature HPC vendor and user communities

Holistic skills that span hardware, system software, applications software, storage, andtechnical support.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

52

LEARN MORE

Related Research (IDC Copyright Publications)Worldwide HPC Server Forecast, 2016–2020 Jun 2016 Doc #US41318216 Earl C. Joseph,
Ph.D., Steve Conway, Robert Sorensen, Kevin MonroeIndia: Announcement of Petascale Supercomputer in 2017 Heralds a Revitalized National
Supercomputing Emphasis Jun 2016 Doc #lcUS41483416 Robert Sorensen

China's HPC Activities: Key Updates and Observations May 2016 Doc #US41292316 Robert
Sorensen, Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.

IBM Invites Scientific Community to Test-Drive Its Universal Quantum Computer May 2016
Doc #lcUS41249616 Robert Sorensen

ARM and TSMC: Next Phase of Partnership to Target the HPC Sector Mar 2016 Doc#US41152716 Robert Sorensen



NSCI Update: Rolling Up Its Sleeves and Getting to Work Mar 2016 Doc #lcUS41072416
Robert Sorensen



EU Consortium Gathers Core Capabilities to Build Exascale HPC Prototype Feb 2016 Doc#lcUS41048816 Robert Sorensen

Next Steps for the NSCI: Looking to Ensure a Long and Lively Life Span Jan 2016
Doc#lcUS40980816 Robert Sorensen



IDC Study: U.S. Private Sector Cybersecurity Best Practices Jan 2016 Doc#US40688815
Steve Conway, Sean Pike

Baidu's Deep Learning Efforts: Notable Progress on Many Fronts Dec 2015
Doc#lcUS40704215 Robert Sorensen

China and the TOP500 List: Impressive Growth Suggests a Sector in Transition Nov 2015 Doc#lcUS40630015 Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Robert Sorensen

Sugon, Lenovo, and Inspur Are Big Winners in China's TOP500 Supercomputer Gains Nov
2015 Doc #lcUS40620815 | IDC Link Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway

Worldwide HPC Server Forecast Update, 2015-2019 Nov 2015 Doc #259950 Earl C. Joseph,
Ph.D., Steve Conway, Robert Sorensen



D-Wave Secures Long-Term Research Partnership with Google, NASA Sep 2015 Doc#lcUS25940615 Robert Sorensen



The U.S. National Strategic Computing Initiative as a "Moonshot": Taking Its First Small Steps
Sep 2015 Doc #259288 Flash Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Robert SorensenWhite House Announces Strategic HPC Plan: A Good Start on a Long Road Aug 2015 Doc#258194 Flash Robert Sorensen, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway

Atos' Bull Unit Scores $29 Million HPC Win to Replace IBM at German Climate Center May
2015 Doc #lcUS25620415 Steve Conway

Global HPC Market Dynamics in 2013 Apr 2014 Doc #248137 Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C.
Joseph, Ph.D., Steve ConwayIndustrial Partnership Programs and High-Performance Computing: HPC User Forum, April 79, 2014, Santa Fe, New Mexico Apr 2014 Doc #248113 Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway,
Chirag Dekate, Ph.D.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

53

Advances in Processors, Coprocessors, and Accelerators in High-Performance Computing:
HPC User Forum, April 7-9, 2014, Santa Fe, New Mexico Apr 2014 Doc #248111 Earl C.
Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D.

International Perspectives on Industrial High-Performance Computing Partnerships: HPC User
Forum, April 7-9, 2014, Santa Fe, New Mexico Apr 2014 Doc #248122 Steve Conway, Earl C.
Joseph, Ph.D., Chirag Dekate, Ph.D.

Worldwide HPC Public Cloud Computing 2014-2017 Forecast Apr 2014 Doc #247846 Chirag
Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway

Catalyst Supercomputer Heralds Shift to More Balanced Architectures Nov 2013 Doc#lcUS24437513 Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.



China Eyes 10,000-Fold Data Reduction for Internet of Things Oct 2013 Doc #lcUS24392513
Steve Conway

Perspectives on Quantum Computing: HPC User Forum, September 2013, Boston,
Massachusetts Oct 2013 Doc # 243777 Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C. Joseph,
Ph.D.



National and International Initiatives: HPC User Forum, September 2013, Boston,
Massachusetts Oct 2013 Doc # 243776 Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C. Joseph,
Ph.D.



High-Performance Data Analysis in the Life Sciences: HPC User Forum, September 2013,
Boston, Massachusetts Oct 2013 Doc # 243774 Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C.
Joseph, Ph.D.



Chinese Research in Processor Designs for High-Performance Computing and Other Uses
Oct 2013 Doc # 243502 Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.

World's Fastest Supercomputer Set to Reach Customer in Oct 2013 Sep 2013 Doc#lcUS24300913 Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.

Worldwide High-Performance Data Analysis 2013-2017 Forecast Jun 2013 Doc #241315
Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.

Top Issues for HPC Sites: HPC User Forum, April 29-May 1, 2013, Tucson, Arizona Jun 2013
Doc #241463 Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.



HPC in Aerospace, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: HPC User Forum, April 29-May 1, 2013,
Tucson, Arizona Jun 2013 Doc #241451 Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Chirag
Dekate, Ph.D.



Livermore Lab Expands Industry Partnerships: Economic Security Is Vital for National Security
Mar 2013 Doc #240232 Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Chirag Dekate, Ph.D.



Advanced Research at the South Ural State University Supercomputing Center Dec 2012 Doc#238225 Chirag Dekate, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D.



IDC Special Study for NCSA/NSF on Industrial Use of HPC, Presented at Supercomputing
2012 Nov 2012 Doc #237984 Steve Conway



China Confirms Plans for 100 PLFOPS Supercomputer by 2015 Nov 2012 Doc#lcUS23797112 Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway



HPC End User Site Update: RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science Earl C.
Joseph, Ph.D., Steve Conway, Chirag Dekate, Ph.D. Mar 2012 Doc # 233690©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

54

APPENDIX

Participants In The Survey
Table 13
Survey Participants
Name

Organization

Akira Oyama

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science,
Department of Space Flight Systems

Akira Shimazu

NITTO Denko Corporation

Atsushi Oshiyama

University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Physics

Fumihiko Imamura

Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science

Hideaki Fujitani

University of Tokyo, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology

Hideyuki Hotta

Chiba University, Graduate School of Science

Hirofumi Tomita

RIKEN AICS, Computational Climate Science Research Team

Hiromu Seko

Meteological Research InstituteJun Igarashi

RIKEN, Advanced Center for Computing and Communication, Computational Engineering
Application Unit

Junichiro Makino

RIKEN AICS, Exascale Computing Project, Co-Design Team

Kazuo Saito

Meteological Research InstituteKenji Ono

RIKEN AICS, Advanced Visualization Research Team

Koji Otsuka

University of Tokyo,

Kozo Fujii

Tokyo University of Science, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Information and Computer
Technology

Makoto Tsubokura

Kobe University, Graduate School of System Informatics, Department of Computational
Science, Computational Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Masaki Satoh

University of Tokyo, Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute, Center for Earth Surface
System Dynamics, Atmospheric and Ocean Research Section

Masaru Shibata

University of Kyoto, Yukawa Institute for Theoretical Physics

Masatoshi Imada

University of Tokyo, Department of Applied Physics©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

55

Table 13
Survey Participants
Name

Organization

Masayuki Takigawa

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Arctic Climate andEnvironment Research, Arctic Geochemical Cycle Research Unit

Muneo Hori

University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research InstituteNaoki Shikazono

University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Collaborative Research Center for Energy
Engineering

Naoya Maruyama

RIKEN AICS, HPC Programming Framework Research Team

Nobuhiro Yoshikawa

University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Center for Innovative Simulation Software

Pham Van Phuc

Shimizu Corporation, Center for Safety and Reliability Engineering, Tsunami andMeteorological Engineering Group

Ryoji Takaki

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science

Ryosuke Shibasaki

University of Tokyo, Center for Spatial Information Science

Seiichiro Ten-no

Kobe University, Graduate School of System Informatics, Department of Computational
Science

Seiji Ogawa

University of Kyoto, Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Pathology and Tumor Biology

Shinobu Yoshimura

University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Department of System Innovation

Susumu Okazaki

Nagoya University, Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Applied Chemistry

Taisuke Ozaki

University of Tokyo, Institute for Solid State Physics, Center of Computational Materials
Science

Takahisa Ohno

National Institute of Material Science, International Center for Materials nano-architectures

Takahito Nakajima

RIKEN AICS, Computational Molecular Science Research Team

Takamasa Iryo

Kobe University, Graduate School of Civil Engineering

Takashi Furumura

University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Division of Disaster Mitigation Science

Takemasa Miyoshi

RIKEN AICS, Data Assimilation Research Team

Tatsuo Nishikawa

Shipbuilding Research Center of Japan, Department of Technology Development, Design
System Development Team

Tetsuo Hatsuta

RIKEN, Nishina Center for Accelerator-Based Science, Quantum Hadron Physics Laboratory©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

56

Table 13
Survey Participants
Name

Organization

Tetsuya Nonaka

Nagoya Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering

Toshiaki Hisada

University of Tokyo/UT-Heart Inc.

Toshitaka Tateyama

National Institute of Material Science, Center for Green Research on Energy andEnvironmental Materials (GREEN), Interface Computational Science Group

Toshiyuki Imamura

RIKEN AICS, Large-scale Parallel Numerical Computing Technology Research Team

Tsuyoshi Miyazaki

National Institute of Material Science, Nano-Theory Field, First Principles Simulation Group

Wataru Shinoda

Nagoya University, Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Applied Chemistry

Yasuhi Okuno

University of Kyoto, Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Clinical System Oncoinformatics

Yuichi Otsuka

RIKEN AICS, Computational Materials Science Research Team

Yuji Sugita

RIKEN, Theoretical Molecular Science Laboratory

Source: IDC 2016©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

57

DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHTThe information and views set out in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarilyreflect the official opinion of RIKEN. RIKEN does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included inthis study. Neither RIKEN nor any person acting on RIKEN's behalf may be held responsible for theuse which may be made of the information contained therein.
Copyright ©2016 - RIKEN. All rights reserved.
Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged.

©2016 RIKEN#US42030216

58

About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory
services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology
markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make factbased decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,100 IDC analysts
provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends inover 110 countries worldwide. For 50 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clientsachieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology
media, research, and events company.

Global Headquarters
5 Speen Street
Framingham, MA 01701
USA
508.872.8200
Twitter: @IDC
idc-community.com
www.idc.com