Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) &National Agriculture and Food Research Organization/ Tohoku Agricultural Research Center (NARO/TARC)JMAIntroduction

Background

Developing Phase

Conduct a pilot project to find best practices
for climate risk management, which targets
agriculture. (<‐ Recommendation 1)

JMA

NARO
/TARC

Pilot Project1.
1 Climatological factor

2 Effective
2.
Eff ti countermeasuret

3.
3 Useful climate prediction

Tohoku region is frequently
affected in summer by cold
north‐easterlywinds(Yamase winds) or by hightemperature, which have agreat impact on rice crops.

Controlling water temperatures inrice fields by adjusting waterlevels
isaneffective
countermeasure to combat theadverse effects of extreme
temperatures on rice crops.

Climate prediction information isconsidered useful for watertemperature control, as farmers
require one to two weeks to
prepare for the water leveladjustment countermeasure.

‐ Rice is an essential crop in Japan.
‐ Tohoku region produces it in large amount(28% of Japan’s rice harvest ) with high quality.
‐ Cold/hot summer conditions cause damages
to rice.
Summer temperature(JJA)
5‐yr running meanHotH t summers

Cold summers
Time series of temperature anomalies ofRice Blast
JJA (summer) in the Tohoku region 1981‐2012

Di l
Dialogueandd Sharing
Sh i knowledge
kl dJoint
J i t Development
D lt

NARO/TARC has not only agricultural knowledge but
also a web system to provide agricultural information
based on temperature prediction up to one week.

Making seven‐day mean temperature (T7d) prediction at a 1‐km resolution
up to two weeks ahead and verifying its skill with hindcast (re‐forecast) data‐ Alarming temperature and risk on rice crop
PeriodAlarming T7dRisk

From the middle of Julyto the beginning of August

20ºCor below
27ºCor above

Sterility

August

NARO/TARCNew ProductJMA+Poor grain
filling=(T7d: seven‐day mean temperature)‐ Existing web system

PC Web page
(Google Maps)* In collaboration with the Faculty of Softwareand Information Science at Iwate Prefectural
University (IPU)
Farmers[NWP]

DialogueE-mailDB

Climatologicalnormal of T7d(1km‐resolution)

HouseWeb server
Mail server
DB server(NumericalWeatherPrediction)

Mean value ofpredicted T7d anomalies(regional‐scale)

Mean value ofpredicted T7d(1km‐resolution)

FieldMobile phone
Web page

Tailoring and experimental provision of information

Dialogue‐ ClimateCliprediction
di i information
i fi forf one totwo weeks ahead is considered useful for
farmers to prepare for the countermeasure.
‐ Farmers need customized andhigh‐resolution data.

JMA

NARO/TARC‐ Temperature prediction skill
covering the period up to twoweeks ahead has been improved.
‐ High‐resolution data could be
developed from Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP) data by using
statistical downscaling method.

New products are made available the existing website by NARO/TARC*.
‐ UsersUcan viewi customizedt i d information
i fti forf theirth i registeredi t d points.
i t‐ When the predicted probability of T7d reaching the alarming temperature ishigh at a registered point, an alert is automatically sent to users.

WebsiteNARO/TARC

E‐mailIssued on 14 August, 2011
Growth stage of rice:
The beginning of grain filling‐‐‐‐‐<Management information of cultivation >Caution for the high‐temperature‐related rice crop damage.
Period : From 15 to 21 AugustPredicted 7‐day mean temperature :28ºC(Criteria temperature is 26ºC or more)(Experimental provision)
High temperature condition is also predicted from 22 to 28 August.
B carefulBe
f l off following
f ll i information.
i fi‐‐‐‐‐(Experimental provision )<Predicted probability of high temperature up to two weeks ahead>
Attention for the high‐temperature‐related rice crop damage .
Period : Around from 22 to 28 AugustPredicted probability of 7‐day temperature at 27ºC or above: 32%.
Probability of climatological occurrence: 8%.
Be careful of following information

Provision of tailored climate informationFeedback by questionnaire survey* In collaboration
with the Facultyof Software andInformation Scienceat Iwate Prefectural
University (IPU)

Users