17th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, June 11‐13, 2019

Improvement of JMA Two‐week
Temperature Forecasts

Shoichiro Miyawaki
Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA’s organizational structure

Climate Prediction Division (CPD)2
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Background/organization.html

JMA attendance at CPASW●

14th(2016)
Burlington(VT),
N.Kayaba

16th(2018)
Fargo(ND),
N.Kayaba●

5th(2007)
Seattle(WA), S.Tanaka●

6th(2008)
ChapelHill(NC),
A.Ito

13th(2015)
LasCruces(NM), S.Hira●●●●

15th(2017)
Anchorage(AK),
N.Kayaba●12th(2014)
Fairfax(VA),
S.Miyawaki

17th(2019)Charleston(SC),S.Miyawaki●10th(2012)
Miami(FL),
S.Miyawaki

3Outline• JMA two‐week temperature forecasts• Current situation• Launch of new forecast website• Usefulness of two‐week temperature forecasts• Further utilization of forecast data
• Probabilistic forecast data (model guidance)• Improvement of two‐week temperature forecast data
• Promotion of application in agriculture• Summary & future work4

From March 2008
On 21st March 2008, JMA began to issue Early Warning
Information on Extreme Weather (EWIEW) when thetemperature for the two‐week period ahead is expected
to be significantly higher or lower than normal.
Early Warning Information on ExtremeWeather (high/low temp)• Based on 7‐day meantemperatures.
• Issued every Monday andThursday. (2‐times of week.)• Qualitative and probabilistic
information.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/souten/en/
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From June 2019
On 19th June 2019, JMA is planning to issue two‐weektemperature forecasts in addition to conventional EWIEW
information.
Early Warning Information onExtreme Weather (high/lowtemp)

Two‐week temperature forecast••
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/souten/en/

Quantitative, more detailed forecast.
Issued daily at 14:30 JST
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Two‐week temperature forecast website
Japan Map

Region list

Click!

Click!

Colors indicate temperature appearance ratios

33％
Very

10％

Low

33％

33％

NormalHigh

Very

10％
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/twoweek/en/

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Two‐week temperature forecast website
Individualpoints

Past
Observations

One‐week
forecast

Two‐week
forecast(daily)(5‐day moving avarage)

Dailymaximum
temperatures

Daily
minimum
temperatures

8https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/twoweek/en/Usefulness of two‐week temperature forecasts
Everyday living
These forecasts help people to decide what towear/take on trips or to outdoor events ahead of time.
They also allow advance measures against heatstrokewhen temperatures rise rapidly.

Agriculture
Crop damage can be reduced by taking measuresagainst high/low temperatures in advance.

RetailForecasting of demand based on expected
temperatures supports retailers in product ordering,inventory management and other related tasks.
9Outline• JMA two‐week temperature forecasts• Current situation• Launch of new forecast website• Usefulness of two‐week temperature forecasts• Further utilization of forecast data
• Probabilistic forecast data (model guidance)• Improvement of two‐week temperature forecast data
• Promotion of application in agriculture• Summary & future work10

Probabilistic forecast data (model guidance)• JMA provides detailed probability forecast data (model guidance based on ensemble
forecasting) online for individual points in CSV format.
• The information is provided for numerical use, such as in agricultural growth models.
Excel sample files for data visualization arealso provided.
Probability by threshold

ワークシートでこんなことできます（図が出せます）みたいな宣伝
Probability density

Files can easily be customized
for individual purposes.
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/probability/guidance/csv_k2w.php

11Improvement of
two‐week temperature forecast data
(before and after)
From 21st March , 2008

From 19th June , 2019

Twice a week
(Monday / Thursday)

Daily

Targetelements

Daily average temperature

Daily average temperature
Daily maximum temperature
Daily minimum temperature

Moving average
period7 days

5 days

Forecast
frequency

12Agricultural usage of temperature forecast data
The following information are applied in the agricultural sector:

CropOverview

Paddy rice
Countermeasures against
cold and high temperatures

Implementing agency & Information
NARO (The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)
Tohoku Agricultural Research Center
Early warning system for potential cold‐related damage to rice crops
http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/taio_suitou.html

Harvest period forecasting

Yamagata, Kagawa, Niigata Prefecture
Technical information for farming

Flowering predictionNARO (The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)
Western Region Agricultural Research Center
Prediction of wheat growth stages using meteorological dataWheat

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/taio_komugi.html

FruitPests
OtherPeach flowering prediction

Yamanashi Prefecture
Information on peach flowering forecasts

Pest proliferation forecasts

Okinawa Prefecture
Information on stink bug control periods

Agricultural weather meshinformation

NARO (The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)
Cultivation management support system
https://www.magis.jp/Only usage verified by JMA is included here. 13

Outline• JMA two‐week temperature forecasts• Current situation• Launch of new forecast website• Usefulness of two‐week temperature forecasts• Further utilization of forecast data
• Probabilistic forecast data (model guidance)• Improvement of two‐week temperature forecast data
• Promotion of application in agriculture• Summary & future work

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Summary & future work
• Summary• JMA is planning to issue two‐week temperature
forecasts on 19th June 2019.
• Probabilistic forecast data are also provided to operatorsin the agricultural sector and other advanced users.

• Next steps• Temperature forecasts will be improved on an ongoingbasis via dialogue with users.
• Plan for 2030 …
• Improvement of temperature forecasts‘ moving average period(5‐day → 1‐day).
• Toward the second week, precision forecasting of storms andheavy snow with a half‐week span.

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HARERUN : A mascot of JMA

E‐mail : climate‐risk@met.kishou.go.jp
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