Toward the reduction of loss anddamage from climate impacts!
Climate risk assessment and management utilizing climate information

Climate risks impact on various fields.
Impacts on

Impacts on

Agricultural products

Retail selling

Human Health- Cold/heat waves hinder the growth ofagricultural products.
- Heavy rainfall or drought causes destructionof crops.

- Cold/heat waves damages the selling ofclothes and electric appliances.

- Heat waves Increase the risk of heatstroke.

Impacts on

What are “climate risks”?
Climate risks mean the possibility of occurrence of loss or damage resulting from climatechange or extreme weather/climate events, and can be expressed like the following
formula.
Climate risks = (Possibility of occurrence of extreme weather/climate event)x (degree of its impact)
Climate risks exist in many fields, and seem very likely to increase in the future. For
example, global warming and urbanization may lead to increasing “the possibility ofoccurrence of heat waves” more than past frequency of their occurrence.

How can we effectively reduce climate risks?
The following steps are effective to reduce climate risks.
Assessment of climate risks
Assess possible impacts of climate risks quantitatively.
Development of countermeasures
Develop countermeasures against climate risks.
Management of climate risks
Manage climate risks based on reasonable decision-making using scientific knowledge.

Japan Meteorological Agency targets on reducing climate risks
utilizing climate information such as seasonal prediction.
September, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)1. To assess climate impacts
The first step to reduce climate risks is to assess impacts from climate.
Examples:In cool summer, consumptionof beer dose not increase.

Qualitatively investigate the relationshipbetween temperature and consumption.

In warm winter, winter wear
is not sold well.

Investigate the trend of temperature.

Climate risks can be estimated by assessing climate impacts quantitatively. If you assessclimate impact on a matter, you would be able to find out that climate risks are involvedin the matter.

How to assess climate impacts in a quantitative manner.
Let’s probe the relation between socio-economic data (e.g., sale volume, the amount ofdamage) and meteorological observation data (e.g., temperature).

<Health>A scatter diagram of the number ofheat stroke patients (vertical axis)
and seven-day mean temperatures(horizontal axis)

No. of transportation
patients

Examples of quantitative assessment
28ºC

25ºC

<Retail selling>
Interannual variations of monthly
averaged temperatures andmonthly sales amounts for August

When averagetemperatures exceed 28ºC,
the number of patientssoars.
30ºC

7-day mean temperaturesales amountThe relationship between
them can be formulated
like the following:
Sales amount =temperature (ºC) x a + b

temperature
2005

2007

2009

Climate risks can be estimated by assessing climate impacts qualitatively andinvestigating the possibility of occurrence of related climatic events.
Please visit the following websites to access past meteorologicalstatistics and seasonal prediction.
Japan Meteorological Agency: http://www.jma.go.jp
Searching past meteorological data: http://data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/index.php

2. To address climate risks
Loss and damage due to climate change and variability can be
avoided or reduced by utilizing knowledge and information on
their impacts.
Assuming that you had the following knowledge through quantitative assessment ofclimate impacts.
- An impact begin to emerge when temperature exceeds ○○ ºC.
- There is a distinct relationship between the degree of an impact and temperature(e.g., when temperature is △△, the degree of the impact is □□)For example, the sales amount of a seasonal commodity in a retail selling and the number of heatstroke patients in the medical field are influenced by the change and variation of temperature.

Practical examples of climate risk management utilizing
quantitative assessment and information on climate.
Using long-term climate data
(e.g., past 30-year-average monthly temperatures)
It is able to estimate the impacts of climate in normal climate conditions.
- Understanding the time period of temperature exceeding ○○ºC in a normal year helps identify:[Retail selling] the best term for sales campaign and the best term;[Health] the best term for enlightenment and warning about heat stroke.
- Understanding the average temperature for August △△ºC in a normal year helps identify:[Retail selling] the sales amount is □□ in August;[Health] the number of heat stroke patients is □□ in August.

Using information and data on present climatic conditions(e.g., current conditions of temperature and precipitation)
It may be necessary to reconsider an initial plan considering thedeviations from normal climate conditions.
- When above-normal temperatures have persisted recently, it is required to:[Retail selling] advance the timing of sales, review the volume of purchase;[Health] advance the timing of warning, review preparation for a countermeasure.

Using climate prediction information(e.g., early warning information on extreme weather, seasonal prediction)
It is possible to avoid or reduce climate risks by appropriate countermeasuresusing climate prediction.
- When it is predicted that temperature will exceed ○○ºC, it is expected to:[Retail selling] adjust the volume of purchase based on sales prediction utilizing the volume of inventory
and temperature prediction;[Health] implement appropriate measures (e.g., procurement of tents used for outside event,preparation of drinking water).
- When it is predicted that temperature will not exceed ○○ºC, it is expected to[Retail selling] prepare for “special sale” not to leave inventory.

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assists
climate risk management!
JMA will improve its website
to facilitate assessing the impacts of climate.
JMA plans to improve its website in order to increase
convenience for climate impact assessment that is thefirst step to reduce climate risks.
- Displaying meteorological data for selected elements(e.g., temperature), time periods and observation points.
- Providing data with format compatible to any spreadsheet software.

Date
28 Apr, 201229 Apr, 2012
30 Apr, 2012
01 May, 2012
02 May, 2012
03 May, 201204 May, 201205 May, 201206 May, 2012

BTemp.
18.8
19.8
17.7
21.218.6
16.7
17.0
21.7
21.9

ATemp.
19.0
19.6
18.3
21.5
20.4
19.0
18.1
19.6
20.5

An example of posting data on theJMA website (under development)

JMA will introduce best practices in climate risk reduction.
- Through dialogues with experts in various sectors such as agriculture, JMA is making
efforts to develop best/good practices in climate risk reduction using climate
information appropriately based on knowledge on these sectors and on
characteristics and accuracy of climate information.
- JMA will open these results to the public to facilitate climate risk management.
A practical example of climate risk management inagriculture

High* The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) /Tohoku Agricultural Research Center (TARC)

Degree of risk

In cooperation with the agricultural research institution*, JMA
experimentally produced agricultural weather information in two
weeks to help make decision in implementing measures for paddy
rice against damage from cold and hot weather (i.e., watermanagement). The experimental information was developed
based on the institution’s knowledge on the relation between
damage and temperature and JMA’s prediction on temperature.
Low

Alarming temperature, impacts and countermeasures for rice cropTime periods

Alarming temperatures

The middle of July – thebeginning of August

20 ºC or below

Sterility

August27 ºC or above

Poor grain filling(seven-day mean)

Risks

Countermeasures
Deep-water
management
Water
management

Contact information
Climate Prediction Division, Global Environment and Marine Department
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
1-3-4, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, JAPAN
Phone: +81-3-3212-8341