Bled Strategic Forum Panel C: Global Preponderance
26-27 August 2007, Bled, Slovenia

A Geriatric Peace and a New Multilateralism:
Democracy and Demography in the 21st Century
Kuniko INOGUCHI, Ph.D.
Member, House of Representatives of Japan
Member, Science Council of Japan
Former Minister of State on Gender and Social Affairs
Former Ambassador to Geneva on Disarmament Affairs
It is my great pleasure and honor to participate in the Bled Strategic Forum. Japanand the Republic of Slovenia enjoy splendid bilateral relations and growing civilsociety exchanges. As a parliamentarian, former Minister of State, and ambassador
to Geneva, I represent my people’s sincere interest and enthusiasm in our sharedvalues of peace, democracy and growth, and in the common future of Asia and the EU.
Japan and many EU countries also share social phenomena such as aging of thepopulation, a declining birthrate and the challenges of better work-life balance.
(Japan Update)
Allow me, first of all, to roughly put Japan and Asia in the global context, and provide
an update on Japan.
The Asia-Pacific region accounts for nearly 30% of global trade, and excluding trade
within the European Union, more than half of the top 10 global trading economies arein Asia. Japan is the leading trader in this region, and Japan’s economic development
is a textbook case of how a resource-poor small country can grow and prosper tobecome the 2nd biggest economy in the world not only by hard work but also by
having prudent trade strategies and proactive investment synergies.
Since Japan is resource-poor, education to spur technological innovation and reforms
to maximize efficiency have always been important. Former Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi was a bold reformer who revitalized Japan by pursuing sweepingchanges within the ruling party, the LDP, and Japan at large. Mr. Shinzo Abesucceeded Koizumi’s administration and Koizumi’s reformist policies. In the July
Upper House election, he suffered a severe loss partly due to the slowing down ofreform efforts. The Upper House does not have law making power comparable to theHouse of Representatives, but the electoral outcome signals a sense of voter insecurity
concerning the future of Japan. Now, Mr. Abe is determined to take a stronger gripof reform initiatives, including the pension systems and social insurance. In foreignpolicy, Prime Minister Abe has been a courageous reformer and initiative taker,
mending fences with China and South Korea, and reaching out to India and beyond.
Another fundamental feature of Japan is the aging of its population. At present, morethan 20% of our population is over 65 years old. Japan ranks first in the speed ofgraying of the population. By 2045, nearly 40% of us will be over 65 years old.
Since Japanese men and women enjoy the longest longevity in the world, there is asocial campaign to encourage work-force participation at a senior age to offset labor
shortages. But on the other hand, Japan must take initiatives to provide better
work-life balance and child care services to working parents so that both men andwomen can enjoy both work and family.
In October 2005, Mr. Koizumi appointed me as the first Minister of State to deal
exclusively with gender equality and demographic issues. I took strong initiatives
including the introduction of infant allowances and the redoubling of child-care
support services. To my great surprise, the total fertility rate, which has been
decreasing in recent years, took a sharp upward turn last year with a percentage risenever experienced in the last four decades in our country. It is evident that Japan’s
young generation welcomed the mainstreaming of gender equality issues and family
support policies.
(A Geriatric Peace?)
Such efforts may slow population decline, but in the long run, Japan will face thechallenges of an aging society together with most EU member states.

The impact of aging of the population is multifaceted. Let us explore how it could
affect peace and the security environment of the 21st Century.
First, labor shortages will provide opportunities to import labor which, if managedwith prudence, could lead to a new stage of people’s interdependence andcross-cultural knowledge. It should provide citizens with a wide range ofopportunities to look beyond borders and learn the diversity and complexity of theinternational community. There could be difficulties and instabilities associated withlabor interdependence, but in the long-run it should enhance people’s global
knowledge and cultural sensitivities.
Second, the aging democracies are most likely to experience an unprecedented rise ofsocial welfare expenditures, and this could restrain them from resorting to excessive
increases of their defense budgets. In the long-run, aging democracies are most
likely to favor diplomatic solutions over war options not only because of their maturity
but also because of the high cost of social insurance. It would no longer be a choice
between butter and guns—the title of a 1997 book on international diplomacy—but
between medicines and guns.
This has come to be known as a “Geriatric Peace.” Both Japan and the EU could be
the pioneers of this political and social dynamic for peace. The concept of geriatricpeace might not hold in countries which are not democratic, since in non-democracies,
states may not be pressured to sustain social insurance for aging citizens. Also theconcept may not hold in democracies that welcome unlimited immigration, since they
will not face graying of the population so soon.
Third, with the graying of the population, we will be compelled to revisit our modern
growth paradigms which focused on a male labor force that constituted themainstream. Women with children, senior citizens, handicapped persons, for example,
were not given due attention as an integral part of modern economic development
dynamics. Unfortunately, Japan is a case in point. Nearly 70% of working womenare driven out of the labor force once they assume burdensome family responsibilities.
Being forced to choose between family and work, many Japanese women postpone thedecision, resulting in late marriages and fewer children. Thus to discuss a declining
and aging population is to deconstruct modern growth paradigms of linear progression
with uniform values and a homogeneous labor force, and pursue a new social
philosophy of inclusion and balance. These efforts should correlate well with, forexample, environmental and ecology concerns, but less with military aggrandizement.
(Leadership Deficit or a New Multilateralism?)
However, these ideas would be muted once we observe unpredictable regional
instability, such as nuclear proliferation or threats of terrorism. I come from East
Asia where such threats are real.

It is my sincere hope that multilateral diplomacy including civil society and theinternational business community will help activate political will to resolve regional
security issues.
Today we are in need of strong political leadership and political will to provide
solutions for emerging and persistent regional and global challenges. Given themagnitude and the speed of regional and global challenges, including new security
threats, climatic change, poverty, and concerns over division and alienation, theinternational community is likely to suffer from a leadership deficit. Politicalleadership at all levels—international, regional, national, and local—needs to beenhanced and supported by the expertise and knowledge of civil society and business
communities. Governments today have come under increasing pressure to address andrespond to a wide-range of complex global issues that cannot be simply solved by raw
power or only by its traditional institutions. The power of knowledge has become
increasingly more important, and this is why civil society, including scholars,
researchers, think tanks, non-profit organizations, media and all interested citizens areimportant partners in the international decision making process. The military power
rests with states. The economic power belongs to states and corporations. Butknowledge can belong only to each human existence. Thus governments, in order tobe effective and powerful, will find a greater incentive to reach out to civil society tomake use of knowledge, including local knowledge that belongs to the people.
These dynamics could serve as the basis of a new paradigm in international decision
making. I call it New Multilateralism. The hallmark of New Multilateralism is thepower of knowledge and a sense of ownership over multilateral issues by a wide rangeof stakeholders. New Multilateralism needs to be implemented with a result-oriented
mindset, but not compromising on priorities on humanitarian progress. It is my hopethat Japan and EU together with others represented at the Bled Strategic Forum willconsolidate our commitment to pioneer the era of the knowledge-intensive andsolution-oriented synergies of New Multilateralism. I thank you.