Risk management in WWDR3
Living with Change and Uncertainty
Olcay Ünver, Coordinator
U. N. World Water Assessment Programme(WWAP)
Symposium on”Integrated approach to water-related disastermanagement”
December 2, 2007
Beppu City, Japan

Water Related Disasters
1990s-2000s:- Floods: 50 %- Droughts: 11 %Geographical breakdown:- Africa: 21 %- Asia: 38 %- Americas: 25 %- Europe: 11 %- Oceania: 5 %From 1996 to 2005, appx. 80% of all disasters were of
meteorological or hydrological origin !

Global TrendsFloods and Droughts
Floods account for over 65 % of allpeople affected by natural disasters,
 More than 350,000 people died due todroughts and floods,
 Of this number, drought has been
responsible for over 280,000 deaths.
economic losses were Combined
estimated at USD 446 billion.
Responding to disasters(WWDR1 and WWDR2)
 Knowing the risk: Probability ofoccurrence and establishing thevulnerability index,
 Defining and implementing the measures(structural and non-structural), Risk-sharing (public/private insurance
mechanisms).

Risk Management:
Key findings of WWDR1 and WWDR2Adopting and balancing the use ofstructural and non-structural methods isa necessity,
 For both floods and droughts, acomprehensive watershed management
approach provides the best solution, The concept of risk management should
be integrated into long term policies,
plans and programmes for sustainabledevelopment.
Risk Management:
Key findings of WWDR1 and WWDR2
 Preventing data loss is critical:

 for correct analysis of events,
 for development of indicators taking into

account natural and social changes,
 better preparedness to future hazards.
 In order to reduce the economic impact ofwater related natural disasters, it is important
to impose the risk on a broader economic basis
through insurance programmes.

What is in WWDR3? 1

Climate change and its affect onwater resources will be the main
theme of the report.
Climate change may exacerbate vulnerability
to water related hazards!

What is in WWDR3? 2
Living with Uncertainty / Acknowledging
Uncertainties:“It is impossible to design a systemthat never fails (fail-safe). What isneeded is to design a system thatfails in a safe way (safe-fail).”Coverage in WWDR3
Uncertainty and adaptation will be addressed
as explicit topics: Adaptation Capacity of societies towards
climate variability and change, Adaptation, resilience and insurance, Decision-making in the Context of Risk andUncertainty,
 Economic evaluation of different responses(How will increased risk and uncertainty
affect investment in the water sector?)…..

Improving the science basis
Establishment of expert groups on: Climate Change Indicators, databases, monitoring Scenarios
 Law
 Policy Relevance
will allow WWDR to satisfactorily address
controversial and emerging topics.

Scenarios
WWDR3 will look at the future To what extent can scenarios developedby the IPCC be used in WWDR3 to look at
the future of water resources?
 Should additional scenarios be developedthat are based on drivers directly linked towater resources and their use?

Real-time Delphi Process
These questions were posed to a group ofover 40 experts in the water sector andthe specialists in scenario developmentusing an on-line real-time Delphi processResponses
The responses enabled WWAP to conclude
there was a consensus among
participants that:
1. Modelling results based on the IPCC
scenarios could be used, especially fordownscaled physical impacts(precipitation and evapotranspiration),
but with less certainty when it comes toimpacts of socio-economic and culturaldrivers.

Responses
2. It would be useful to develop
scenarios based on the direct impactof drivers on water resources andtheir uses. For economy of effort
these could be based on previous
similar exercises such as the World
Water Vision Scenarios

WWAP Approach to Scenarios
 WWDR3 will use results of the use of

impact studies based on the IPCC
scenarios in assessing the future of water
resource availability A parallel scenario exercise will be
conducted with the guidance of theScenario Expert Group using drivers
having a more direct link to the use ofwater.

Added Value of WWDR series Reporting mechanism of UN-Water as well as

the decade ‘Water for Life’ (2005-2015),
 Awareness Raising, Bringing UN and non-UN partners together fora more sophisticated and comprehensive
approach (eg. ISDR and Tsukuba Centre on
Risk Management) Providing key messages directed towards
decision makers and politicians,
 Case Studies, Side series, policy papers.

Disaster Risk Reduction at theInternational Level
 Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action(1994)
 International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction (1990-2000)

provided valuable policy guidance
and tools for the mitigation ofdisasters.

Water for Life Decade
The International Decade ‘Water forLife’ builds upon the previous
attempts by focusing on:
Governance,
 Risk identification,assessment,monitoring, Education/knowledge management, Reduction of underlying risk factors,
 Preparedness for effective response

WWDR series during the period of the decade will reporton the progressThank you
Olcay Ünver, Coordinator
U. N. World Water Assessment Programme(WWAP)