京 都 大 学 防 災 研 究 所 年 報 第 50 号 C 平 成 19 年 4 月
Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 50 C, 2007

Urban Diagnosis: A Methodology of Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Norio OKADA, Muneta YOKOMATSU, Yoshiyuki SUZUKI,
Yoshimi HAGIHARA, Hirokazu TATANO and Michinori HATAYAMA
Synopsis
This paper gives an outline of the research outcomes obtained in the fiscal year 2006 by the
COE Research Group of Integrated Disaster Risk Management. The primary objective of our entire
research activities is to develop and extend a methodology of “urban (regional) diagnosis” forintegrated disaster risk management (IDRiM). There are four research focuses, Disaster Risk
Management (Disaster risk governance and participatory disaster risk management), Safety controlof urban space, Social group conflict analysis, and Social systems for disaster risk reduction andrisk sharing. With our related research focuses positioned by a proposed 5-storied pagoda model,
their primary results are discussed.
Keywords: integrated disaster risk management, urban diagnosis, disaster risk governance,
participatory disaster risk management, safety control of urban space and socio and eco risk
management, social systems for risk reduction and risk sharing.

1.

Introduction

Our entire group consists of the following four
laboratories which used to come under the Division ofIntegrated Management for Disaster Risk (IMDR) until
the beginning of fiscal year 2005 as a result of DPRI’s
reorganization. They are: Disaster Risk Management(focusing on disaster risk governance and participatory
disaster risk management), Safety Control of Urban
Space (Clarification of Structural Mechanism of
Traditional Wood Frames, and Development ofStructural Health Monitoring System and Reliability ofUncertain Structures),Water Resources Systems
Planning (Social Group Conflict Analysis), and Social
Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction and Risk Sharing(Development of a Method to Estimate Economic Losses
in Industry, Ambiguity, Risk and Earthquake Insurance
Premiums, Flood Risk Communication Support Tool for
Making Participant Original Hazard Map ). For us tocollaboratively work on the 21 century’s DPRI-COE
Research Project, we have developed a methodologicalframework for integrated disaster risk management, thatis called “urban (or regional) diagnosis”. (When wemean to include rural areas, local communities orarea-wide regions, “regional diagnosis” is better used.) In
the following the term “urban diagnosis” is used tomean also “regional diagnosis”.
2.

Urban diagnosis

According to Okada (for instance, 2006) Urban
Disaster Diagnosis (UDD) is proposed as a methodology- to overall assess the spatial risks of urban, regional andcommunity areas under disaster threats.
- to serve as a scientific framework to make a holistic
diagnosis of the current status (status-quo) of safety
and security of the urban space focused- to prescribe prospective countermeasures to enhancetheir quality.
UDD needs to be developed in analogy withphysiological risk assessment
UDD also provides us with a methodologicalframework for developing and positioning a set of tools
such as:- monitoring and measuring techniques- fragility curves, risk curves－1－

- vulnerability assessment, damage and loss estimation- economic evaluation of possible alternatives- prioritizing a bundle of policy issues- resolving conflicts- collaborative modeling and partnership formation forshared prescriptions- a set of information and communication media- a set of process technology
Though not described here about how specifically itapplies to each of our research focuses, the above list
gives a comprehensive set of tools, models andinformation media which come under UDD.
Another useful conceptual construct developed
within the framework of UDD is the 5-storied Pagoda
Model (Fig. 1).

Disaster preparedness is observed as a participatorycommunity management process, where all participating
agents are expected to share knowledge. We discuss thetype of knowledge required and how it can be better
accumulated and used. This process is analyzed by theknowledge creation model. Community diagnosis is
proposed as a method for completing this knowledge
creation cycle to enhance disaster preparedness. We
discuss the first two phases of community diagnosis. The
knowledge externalization phase is designed as adiagnostic survey, the questionnaire survey implying themetaphor that “the community’s disaster preparedness
needs to be checked. ”The knowledge combination
phase is designed as a prescriptive workshop which isheld to find a solution (prescription) to enhance thecommunity preparedness by face-to-face communication.
We present an ongoing empirical study of community
diagnosis in urban Nagoya.

quick

Change over time

Table 1. Community Preparedness Index (CPI)slow(5) Life in Community(4) Land Use
Built Environment(3) Infrastructure(2) Social Schemes
Culture and Convention(1 ) Natural Environment

Fig. 1 5-storied pagoda modelThis conceptual model offers a useful perspective on
the rough positioning of our research focuses as
explained later.
3.

Disaster Risk Management(N.OKADA and M. YOKOMATSU)

1) Community Diagnosis for Sustainable Disaster
Preparedness (pagoda model: level 1)
The research presents the “community diagnosis”
method which addresses the need for sustainable disaster
preparedness at the community level with the assistanceof disaster experts. To this end, we present the PDCA
management cycle and knowledge creation model.
Based on these concept models, we introduce anddemonstrate community diagnosis as a method of
implementing participatory disaster preparedness.

－2－

traditional wooden buildings.
A ladder type frame is developed as a reinforcement
method using large deformation efficiency of the
traditional framework. Its performance is verified withshaking table experiments.

PillarPillarFig. 2 CPI (A Town, Higashiyama, K Town)(source Matsuda and Okada, 2006)

Methodologies of Retrofitting Traditional Wooden
Houses (pagoda model: level 2)
To make clear the structural mechanism of
traditional wood frames to evaluate the seismic
performance of wooden buildings like Japanese temples,shaking table tests and static tests using several scalemodels is described and typical experimental results
were carried out. From experiments, it is found that thehorizontal restoring force of wooden frame without
walls depends mainly on the bending moment resistancefrom tie beams and the restoring force due to column
rocking. The equilibrium relationship between the total
restoring force and all the bending moments involved isestablished and verified. Using this equilibrium
relationship, it is possible to evaluate the restoring force
due to column rocking. The restoring force due tocolumn rocking is the major part of the total restoring
force when the frame deformation is small. The bending
moments from tie beams become dominant as thedeformation increases. The traditional wooden frame has
the large flexibility and deformability. It is essential totake advantage of the structural mechanisms found fromthis study in the seismic and enhancement design of

30
20

0.04

Effect of laddertype frame

0.03

復元力 [kN]

Safety Control of Urban Space (Y. SUZUKI)

Fig.4 illustrates the results of the shaking table tests.
It is found that ladder type frame reduce deformation
angle similar to retrofitted members with 12 or 24
dampers. If dampers are installed, attenuation effects are
increased. As for ladder type frame, its components andthe member of the bundles are easy to be designed
according to required seismic performance.
Before100125Gal100Gal
75Gal
50Gal
25Gal
10Gal

-10
-20
-30

-0.03 -0.02 -0.01

00.01 0.02 0.03

層間変形角[rad] [rad]deformation
angle

0.02
30

通肘木あり
通肘木なし
補強材つき
ダンパー12個
ダンパー24個

0.01

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Maximum acceleration of
input seismic motion [Gal]20

復元力 [kN]4.

Fig.3 Ladder type frame

deformation
angle[rad]
[rad]
層間変形角

We also discuss the scheme of the participatory
process which makes this study unique. From thetentative results of this community diagnosis,
externalized local knowledge regarding” repeatability of
preparedness” and “scale of a community” is discussed.

300

After

10
0
125Gal100Gal
75Gal
50Gal
25Gal
10Gal

-10
-20
-30

-0.03 -0.02 -0.01

00.01 0.02 0.03

層間変形角 [rad]deformation
angle [rad]Fig.4 results of the shaking table tests

5.

Socio and Eco Risk Management(Y. HAGIHARA)

Social group conflict analysis (pagoda model: level
3,4,5)
Social conflict between people insisting on
environment and people insisting on development comesto be seen frequently. Especially, this tendency isconspicuous in water resources development because its－3－

influence is generally widespread. The probability ofsuch conflict should be thought as risk of the project.
Management of such conflicts must be considered on
any future development project to avoid theirintensification and prolongation. Ａ mathematicalmodel is built up to analyze such conflict and to see whatkind of equilibrium states could occur. The model
mainly consists of two parts. The first one concernschanging process of strategy, which interest parties
would choose. The second one sets the model about
preference of interest parties, which is needed to set a
pay-off matrix in the first part of the model. Furthermore,
the model is applied to Nagara River Problem as a casestudy.
The conflict between people insisting on
environment and people insisting on development comesto be seen frequently. Management of such conflictand inducing consensus between them must be
considered on a future development project. Without
such understanding, appropriate development would not
be achieved. People are defined as groups categorized bysome features, and assumed to have distribution of
opinions. Then, the conflict incidental to development
project is modeled as interactive phenomenon of conflictsituation and residents’ opinion distribution between
development and environment. Through the model
analysis, it can be seen how the conflict would reachstable states.
Evaluation method of seismic risk and coping
capacities in Kyoto city (pagoda model: level 3,4,5)
Kyoto city is historical and cultural area, and many
aged persons are living there.. However, the area haspotential risk for earthquake by active faults. This
research concretely shows the weak area against seismic
risk. It might be significant information for mitigation
plan. Dangerous factors, such as blind alley and aged
persons, are clarified. And the weak area against
disasters is defined by them with GIS. It is found thatthese weak areas are concentrated in Higashiyama andKamigyo Wards.
6.

Disaster Risk Governance ( H. TATANO and M.
HATAYAMA)

Development of a method to estimate economic losses
in industry (pagoda model: level 3,4)
As to avoid double counting economic losses, it is

Kamigyo
Ward

御所

二条城

N
H: Aging Ratio D: vulnerability index
H<20% D<125
H<20% D≧125
H≧20% D<125H≧20% D≧125

１ｋm
Higashiyama Ward

Fig.5 Distribution of weak areas against earthquake
shown important to distinguish the effects between
disaster and recovery [Tatano, et.al.,2000, Tatano, 2006].
When we estimate total economic loss which includes
foregone revenue in industries, these two effects shouldbe estimated in the consistent way. When we estimate
total economic loss, the loss caused by the disaster andnet present value of recovery actions should be summed
up. According to Tatano, et.al. (2000), the total
economic losses of a firm equals to “foregone revenue”
plus “recovery cost. This means that it is consistent withthe conventional loss estimation framework which
defines total economic loss of a firm as sum of direct andindirect losses if the direct loss is estimated as “recovery
cost of the damaged assets” and the indirect loss aredefined as “foregone revenue”. The further research is
conducted in this year to find the consistent way for
aggregation of the economic losses in an economy[Nakano et al, 2006]. For this purpose, economic losses
of a firm is reconsidered and it is found that difference ofthe net cash flows between the scenarios with andwithout a disaster is also the consistent measure of thetotal economic loss of a firm(Fig.6). A method to
conduct consistent aggregation of economic losses overan economy is investigated. The method requests us tosum up all the difference of the cash flows overindustries in the economy and calculate the net present－4－value of them. The net present value is shown to becoincident with the foregone revenue of the damaged
firms and resource expenditures of firms which provide
recovery services, which are the real opportunity cost of
the economy. A case study was also conducted to apply
the methodology for estimation of total industrial losses
in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake. We conducted aquestionnaire survey for damaged firms and collected
521 valid response from nonmanufacturer and 328
from manufacture. It is estimated that the total economic
loss was about 584 billion yen, including 265 billion yen
in recovery cost and 318 billion yen losses in profit[Nakano, et.al..2007]. We found this was enormous
damage for the regional economy because the Gross
Regional Product of the Chuetsu-region was about 2148
billion yen in 2003
(yen/period)(yen/period)

３

４

２
１

３

economic lossof each period

cash-flow witha disaster(yen/period)(yen/period)

recovery
cost

４

２

１

２

４
３

１

cash-flow without
a disaster(yen/period)

companies than each correspondents, and increases withage, education level.
Table 6 Risk and ambiguity premium
Reference probability
α= 1% α= 5%Expected loss
15,273 14,863
Risk premium
5,861
5,782
Ambiguity premium-2,198-2,098Willingness to pay
18,936 18,546(Yen)
α= 10%
14,350
5,683-2,98817,045

Design of Institutional arrangement for trustworthy
construction market (pagoda model: level 4,5)
It is one of the most basic countermeasures against
earthquakes to construct quake-proof buildings. This
study provides an institutional framework whereconstructors and building inspectors are motivated towork stringently.
In general, it is difficult for a building client to observe
the quality of the building (e.g., earthquake-resistance).
Then, the constructors can take moral hazard actions toseek their profits. Hence, a client would hesitate to closea construction contract with a constructor.
A performance-based contract framework we propose
to solve this problem includes two-staged inspection via
building inspectors (Fig.7) [Yoshida, et.al., 2006].

(yen/period)

state performance requirement＋
Economic loss

profit loss

The flow of
the contract

recovery cost

designclientdesign drawing inspection

constructor

construction

Fig.6 Economic Loss of a firmbuilding inspector

construction inspection
receive payment

An Empirical Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity
Effect on Ambiguity Aversion (pagoda model: level 5)
We empirically investigates the influence of theambiguity on the decision to buy hypotheticalearthquake insurance and the relationship withindividual characteristics based on MEU model using
questionnaire data [Fujimi and Tatano, 2006]. For that
purpose, we develop the econometric model consistent
with theoretical model derived from axioms. The main
results of this paper are summarized as follows. First,
respondent's preferences to the insurance with 1, 5, and
10% appraisal risk are generally inconsistent withexpected utility theory. Second, respondents demanded
more than 20% reduction in premium to offset eachappraisal risk. Third, the ambiguity premium is larger inmen who purchase earth-quake insurance, have neverreceived insurance payment, and distrust insurance

Fig.7. The flow of performance-based contract
At the first stage, the building inspector ascertains
whether or not the design drawing has the potential tosatisfy the client’s performance requirement. At thesecond stage, the building inspector ascertains whether
or not the construction is conducted along with theinspected design drawing. We analyze this problem withusing the game theory with incomplete information(Fig.8). It is shown that the social optimal contract canbe concluded if the building inspector carries out
adequate two-staged inspection.
In addition to the moral hazard problem regarding
constructors, we also analyze the institutionalarrangement where building inspectors are motivated tocarry out stringent inspections. If building inspectors

－5－

q

ed
offers the contract1

accepts

１

2

er

m1
3

M1
5

w

1− β

1− α

1 − erM0β60−Cr (er )1 − edrefuses1

q0− Cd (ed )α4P: offers thecontract

m00

A: accepts or A : designs T: design drawing
A: retrofits T: construction
rewardInspection
refuses his offer
Inspection
P,A: receive the msg
P,A: receive the msg
for the designfor the retrofit

Fig.8. The model with performance-based contract
carry out negligent inspections, the opportunities toimpose penalty on negligent constructors can be lost.
Hence, the problem regarding building inspectors are
more serious than the one regarding constructors. We
propose post-inspection payment plan in which thepayment for building inspectors is based on theinspection results reported by them [Yoshida et.al.,2007]. It is shown that post-inspection payment plan iseffective in both the moral hazard and adverse selection
problems.
A Flood Risk Communication Support System for
Flood Disaster Response Planning in a Community(pagoda model: level 4,5)
To realize safe autonomous evacuation, citizens
should obtain well developed “mental model” forevacuation which includes appropriate perception
mechanism to preserve flood risk and flexible“alternative set” for evacuation actions. Aiming atconstructing well developed mental models whichcitizens’ evacuation actions are determined based on, thepaper develops a flood risk communication support
system. Through communication among stakeholders
assisted by the system, changes in flood risk perception
and increase in the flexibility of the alternative plans ofevacuation actions are observed in the experimental
workshops in Kiyosu City, Aichi prefecture.[Kawashima,et.al. 2006]

References
Okada:, N. City and region viewed as vitae system for
integrated disaster risk management, Annals of Disaster
Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, No.
49 B, 2006.
Matsuda, M., and Okada, N.: Community Diagnosis for

Sustainable Disaster Preparedness, Journal of Natural
Disaster Science, Volume 28, Number 1, pp. 25-33,
2006
Yoshiyuki SUZUKI, Masaki MAENO: Structural
mechanism of traditional wooden frames by dynamic
and static tests, Structural Control and Health
Monitoring, Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2006, pp. 508-522.
Mukaibo, K., Shirayama A., Suzuki, Y. and Sasaki, T.:
Seismic Reinforcement of Traditional Wooden
Structure by Wooden Ladder Frames with Dampers,
Proceedings of the 4th World Conference on
Structural Control and Monitoring (4WCSCM), Jul.
2006
Sakamoto M. Hagihara, Y. and Hipel, W.K. :Coordination Process by a Third Party in the Conflict
between Bangladesh and India over Regulation ofGanges River, 2005 IEEE International Conference
on Systems ,Man and Cybernetics, pp. 1119-1125,
2005.
Sakamoto, M. and Y. Hagihara : A Study on Social
Conflict Management in a Water
Resources
Development – A Case of the Conflict between India
and Bangladesh over Regulation of the Ganges
River- , JJSHWR, Vol.18, No.1, pp.11-21, 2005.
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Evaluation of Seismic Risks, Proc. of 2000 Joint
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CBTDC, Beijing, China, 2000.
Tatano, H: Seismic risk management and economic
loss estimation, Seismic Risk Management Seminar,
JSCE, 2005. (in Japanese)
Nakano, K., Tatano, H., Fujimi, T., and Tsuchiya, S.:
Estimation of the Economic Loss in Industrial Sectors
Caused by the 2004 Mid-Niigata Earthquake,
Infrastructure Planning Review, JSCE, Vol.24，2007,(in Printing, in Japanese)
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Buildings, 2006 IEEE International Conference on
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2006, pp.5264-5269(CD-ROM)
Mamoru Yoshida, Hirokazu Tatano: Post-inspection
payment plan for building inspectors, 2007 IEEE

－6－

Review, JSCE, Vol.23 ，pp. 309-318, 2006. (inJapanese)

International Conference on Systems, Man andCybernetics, 2007. (Forthcoming)
Kawashima, K., Tatano, H. and Hatayama, M.: A Flood
Risk Communication Support System to Promote
Safe Autonomous Evacuation, Infrastructure Planning

都市診断法：総合的な災害リスクマネジメントの方法論

岡田憲夫・横松宗太・鈴木祥之・萩原良巳・多々納裕一・畑山満則

要 旨
本研究は、京都大学防災研究所21世紀 COE研究プロジェクトの一環で旧総合防災研究グループが2005年度に行った研究成果の概要をとりとめたものである。 本研究活動全体の主たる目的は総合的な災害リスクマネジメントのための方法論として、都市診断技法を開発し、発展させることである。すなわち、災害リスクマネジメント(災害リスク
ガバナンス、参加型災害リスクマネジメント)、都市空間の安全制御、地域水環境システム、防災社会システムの4つの研究課題を取り上げた。 五層モデルを用いて各研究の位置づけを示すとともに、それぞれの研究成果について概説した。

キーワード: 総合的な災害リスクマネジメント, 都市診断, 災害リスクガバナンス,
参加型災害リスクマネジメント, 都市空間の安全制御, 社会・生態環境研究, 防災社会システム－7－