京 都 大 学 防 災 研 究 所 年 報 第 50 号 B 平 成 19 年 4 月
Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 50 B, 2007 ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆᵹၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߢߩ㒠᳓㊂ᄌൻߩផቯ*ዊᨋ ቁ ࡮ዊዥ೑ᴦ࡮㊁ᴛ ᔀ***੩ㇺᄢቇᄢቇ㒮Ꮏቇ⎇ⓥ⑼
**࿖┙ⅣႺ⎇ⓥᚲⷐ ᣦ᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆᵹၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߢߩ㒠᳓㊂ᄌൻࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆߚ߼㧘ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ൻᚻᴺߣ
9GCVJGT)GPGTCVQTᴺࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖ㧘%)%/㧔%QWRNGF)NQDCN%KTEWNCVKQP/QFGN㧕ߢߩࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦ⚿ᨐࠍ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߔࠆᚻᴺߩ㐿⊒ࠍⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ㧔ർᶏ㆏㧕㧘੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞ㧔ችፒ⋵㧕ߦㆡ↪ߒߚߣߎࠈ㧘ᤨⓨ㑆⊛ߦᄢ߈ߥ㒠᳓㊂ᄌൻ߇↢ߓࠆߎߣ߇ಽ
߆ߞߚ‫ࠍࠇߎޕ‬㧝MO㧘ᤨ㑆ߩࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߩಽᏓဳᵹ಴ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ౉ജߒ㧘ਔᵹၞߦ߅ߌࠆ዁᧪
ߩ᳓⾗Ḯ․ᕈࠍᛠីߒߚ‫ޕ‬ᴾࠠ࡯ࡢ࡯࠼࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ㧘࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ㧘㒠᳓㊂ᄌൻ㧘ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃 ߪߓ߼ߦ

ࠍ߃ߥ޿(Fig.1 ෳᾖ㧕‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘৻⥸⊛ߦCGCMߩ㒠᳓㊂಴ജ୯ߪઁߩ᳇⽎ⷐ⚛ߦᲧߴ⺋Ꮕ߇ᄢ߈޿㧘ߣㄭᐕ㧘࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅ㒠᳓․ᕈ߇ᄌൻߔࠆߣ޿

ߩ໧㗴߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬߁ᜰ៰߇ᄙߊߥߐࠇ㧘᳓⾗Ḯ⸘↹┙᩺ߦ㓙ߒߡ߽ߘߩᓇ㗀ࠍήⷞߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥߊߥߞߡ߈ߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆో࿾⃿ⷙᮨߢߩᄢ᳇ᓴⅣ߿᳇୥ᄌേࠍ
⸃᣿ߔࠆߩߦ⃻࿷ᦨ߽ࠃߊ↪޿ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆߩߪ㧘ᄢ᳇ ᶏ ᵗ ⚿ ว ᓴ Ⅳ ࡕ ࠺ ࡞ 㧔 CGCM 㧧 Coupled Global
Circulation Model㧕ߢ޽ࠆ‫ోޕ‬࿾⃿ࠍᄙᢙߩᩰሶߦಽ
ഀߒ㧘ᄢ᳇߿ᶏ᳓㧘ᶏ᳖㧘㒽㕙ߥߤߩ᜼േࠍᄙᢙߩ
‛ℂᣇ⒟ᑼߦၮߠ߈ࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦߔࠆߎߣߢ㧘࿾⃿᳇୥ߩࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒࠃ߁ߣ޿߁ࡕ࠺
࡞ߢ޽ࠆ㧔ᤨጟ㆐ᔒࠄ㧘1993㧕‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘CGCMߦ
ࠃࠅឭଏߢ߈߁ࠆ಴ജߩ࡟ࡌ࡞ߣ᳓⾗Ḯ⸘↹ߢᔅⷐ

Fig. 1 Resolution of CGCM developed by CCSR /ߣߐࠇࠆ౉ജߩ࡟ࡌ࡞ߩ㑆ߦߪ㧘޿߹ߛߦᄢ߈ߥ㓒

NIES / FRCGC

ߚࠅ߇޽ࠆ‫⃻ޕ‬࿷㧘਎⇇ᦨ㜞ߩ⸃௝ᐲࠍᜬߞߚCGCM
ߩ߭ߣߟߪ㧘 ᧲੩ᄢቇ᳇୥ ࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ⎇ⓥ ࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߎߩCGCMߣ᳓⾗Ḯ⸘↹ߩ㓒ߚࠅࠍ⸃ᶖߔࠆߚ߼㧔CCSR㧧Center for Climate System Research㧕㧘࿖┙ߦ㧘‫(ࠣࡦ࡝࡯ࠤࠬࡦ࠙࠳ޟ‬Downscaling)‫߇ޠ‬ᔅⷐߣⅣႺ⎇ⓥᚲ㧔NIES㧧National Institute for Environmentalߥࠆ‫⎇ᧄޕ‬ⓥߢߪ㧘CCSR / NIES / FRCGC ߩCGCM

Studies 㧕 㧘 ࿾ ⃿ Ⅳ Ⴚ ࡈ ࡠ ࡦ ࠹ ࠖ ࠕ ⎇ ⓥ ࠮ ࡦ ࠲ ࡯ߣ᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ㧘1)⛔⸘ቇ⊛ᚻᴺߢ޽ࠆࡄ࠲࡯ࡦ

㧔FRCGC㧧Frontier Research Center for Global Change㧕ಽ㘃ᴺߣWeather Generatorᴺࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖߚ࠳࠙ࡦ

ߩ㧟ᯏ㑐߇౒หߢ㐿⊒ߒ㧘ታⴕߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ

ࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣᚻᴺࠍ㐿⊒ߒ㧘2)᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆ᳇⽎ࡄ㧔Kimoto M㧘2005㧕‫⚂ޕ‬100kmߩ᳓ᐔ⸃௝ᐲࠍᜬߞ

࠲࡯ࡦߩᄌൻࠍᝒ߃㧘3)ᵹၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߢߩ㒠᳓㊂ᄌߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߩ㧘ᣣᧄߩ࿾ᒻߪⶄ㔀࡮ᕆፋߢ޽ࠅ㧘ᴡൻࠍផቯߒ㧘4)1ᤨ㑆߅߈1km྾ᣇߩ⚦߆ߐߢ᳓ᢥ⻉Ꮉᵹၞ㕙Ⓧ߽ዊߐ޿ߚ߼㧘ᣣᧄߩ᳓⾗Ḯ⸘↹┙᩺ߦ㊂ߩᄌൻࠍᬌ⸛ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔Fig.2 ෳ೑↪ߔࠆߦߪ㧘ߎߩ಴ജ⚿ᨐߢ߽ਇචಽߣ޿ࠊߑࠆ

ᾖ㧕‫ޕ‬－ 701 －

ㄝ㧔ർ✲15q㨪55q㧦᧲⚻105q㨪155q㧕㧘ⓨ㑆ಽ
Data

Present data

CGCM

(AMeDAS)(JRA25)data⸃⢻ߪ1.25q㧘6ᤨ㑆߅߈ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚ‫ࠅ߹ߟޕ‬㧘ฦ᦬ߏߣߦ2700⒟ᐲ㧔㧝ᣣ㧠࿁28㨪31ᣣ22ᐕ㑆㧕ߩ࠺࡯࠲߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬᳇⽎ⷐ⚛ߣߒߡߪ㧘Table 1 ߦ⴫ߐࠇߚฦⷐ⚛ࠍෳᾖߒ㧘ߘࠇࠄ߆ࠄ▚಴น⢻ߥ߽ߩ߽

Pattern classificationട߃ߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
Table 1 Related meteorological data in JRA25
Decision of cluster

Check

z500

Weather Generator

clusters
Downscaled precipitation(at ANeDAS points)

500hPa㕙㜞ᐲ

t500

500hPa㕙᳇᷷

q500

500hPa㕙ᲧḨ

q850

850hPa㕙ᲧḨslpᶏ㕙ᦝᱜ᳇࿶

500hPa㕙ߣߪ㜞ᐲ⚂5600mߩኻᵹ࿤ਛጀߦ޽ࠅᄢ
᳇ߩ㋦⋥ᐔဋ⁁ᘒࠍ⴫ߔ‫ޕ‬850hPa㕙ߪ㜞ᐲ⚂1500m
ߦ޽ࠅ㧘ኻᵹ࿤ਅጀߩ⁁ᘒࠍࠃߊ⴫ߔ‫ޕ‬ᲧḨߣߪ㧘

Runoff

Impacts on
Water Resources න૏⾰㊂޽ߚࠅߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ᳓⫳᳇⾰㊂ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣᚻᴺߩ᭎ⷐ

Fig. 2 Flowchart for proposed research

JRA25ߩㆊ෰ߩ᳇⽎ಽᏓ࠺࡯࠲ࠍࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ൻᚻᴺߦࠃࠅ㧘ฦ᦬ߏߣߦ޿ߊߟ߆ߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦಽ ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣᚻᴺ

㘃ߔࠆ‫ߩ߈ߣߩߘޕ‬೨ᓟ3ᤨ㑆ߦ᷹ⷰߐࠇߚAMeDASߦࠃࠆ㒠᳓㊂ߩಽᏓߣᤨ㑆⊛ᄌൻ㧘ߐࠄߦᵹၞ਄ⓨ ⸃ᨆߦ↪޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲

ߩ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲߽หߓࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦಽ㘃ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬㒠᳓㊂

CCSR / NIES / FRCGCߩ3ᯏ㑐ߪ㧘਎⇇ᦨ㜞ߩ⸃௝ᧂ⍮ߩCGCM಴ജࠍ૞ᚑߐࠇߚࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߩ߁ߜ㧘ᐲࠍᜬߟᄢ᳇ᶏᵗ⚿วࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ㐿⊒ߒ㧘ߎߩࡕ࠺࡞

ᦨ߽ㄭ޿߽ߩߦഀࠅઃߌࠆ‫ߦ࡯࠲ࠬ࡜ࠢޕ‬ዻߒߚࠍ↪޿ߡ20਎♿᳇୥ౣ⃻ታ㛎㧔એਅ㧘20਎♿ታ㛎ߣ

JRA25಴ജߩᢙߣഀࠅઃߌࠄࠇߚCGCM࠺࡯࠲ߩᢙ

๭߱㧕ߣ21਎♿ߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇୥ᄌൻࠍ⷗ㅢߔታ㛎㧔એߩᄌൻ߆ࠄ㧘ᵹၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߢߩ㒠᳓․ᕈᄌൻߩផቯ

ਅ㧘᷷ᥦൻታ㛎ߣ๭߱㧕ࠍⴕߞߚ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘ࡕ࠺࡞ߩࠍⴕ߁‫ߣ޽ߩߘޕ‬㧘Weather Generatorᴺߦࠃࠅᅷᒰᕈࠍ⏕߆߼ࠆߚ߼ߩ20਎♿ታ㛎ߪ㧘1900ᐕߩ࿾

AMeDASฦ᷹ⷰὐߩ዁᧪ߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍቯ㊂⊛ߦ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬⃿᳇୥ߩ⁁ᘒࠍೋᦼ୯ߣߒߡਈ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦ  ISODATAᚻᴺߩㆡ↪

ൻታ㛎ߪ㧘IPCC㧔Intergovernmental Panel Climateࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ߩᣇᴺߪISODATAᚻᴺࠍណ↪ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

Change㧧᳇୥ᄌേߦ㑐ߔࠆ᡽ᐭ㑆ࡄࡀ࡞㧕ߦࠃࠅ૞

ISODATA 㧔Iterative Self Organizing Data Analysis

ᚑߐࠇߚࠪ࠽࡝ࠝa1bߣb1ߦၮߠ޿ߡⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ

Techniques A㧕ߪ㧘ೋᦼ⁁ᘒߣߒߡㆡᒰߥࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯

㧔Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report ofࠍਈ߃㧘ዋߒߕߟߘߩ࠺࡯࠲㧔ⷐ⚛࡮੹࿁ߪJRA25

the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change㧘2001㧕‫ޕ‬಴ജ㧕ࠍ⚵ߺᦧ߃ߡ㨬ࠃࠅࠃ޿ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯㨭ࠍ᳞߼ߡ

20਎♿ታ㛎ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘1979ᐕ㨪2000ᐕߩ࠺࡯࠲㧘޿ߊ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔ዊዥࠄ㧘1989㧧㜞ᧁࠄ㧘1991㧕‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻታ㛎ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ࠃࠅ᷷ᥦൻߩᓇ㗀ߩ⃻ࠇࠆࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓࠍએਅߦ␜ߔ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘◲නߩߚ߼ߦ

a1bࠪ࠽࡝ࠝߦࠃࠆታ㛎⚿ᨐߩ2079ᐕ㨪2100ᐕߩ࠺

JRA25಴ജߩᤨ㑆㑆㓒ߢ޽ࠆ6ᤨ㑆ࠍ࠲ࠗࡓࠬ࠹࠶

࡯࠲ࠍᛒ߁ߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ࡊߣߔࠆ‫ࡊ࠶࠹ࠬࡓࠗ࠲ޕ‬t ߦ߅ߌࠆಽ㘃ኻ⽎࠺࡯৻ᣇ㧘᷹ⷰ୯ߣߒߡߪ㧘᳇⽎ᐡ෸߮㔚ജਛᄩ⎇ⓥ

࠲ࠍxࠍ࠺࡯࠲ߩዻᕈ㧔଀߃߫‫ޔ‬࿾ὐ߿ᒻ⁁㧕ߣߒᚲߦࠃࠆJRA-25㐳ᦼౣ⸃ᨆࡊࡠࠫࠚࠢ࠻ߦࠃࠅឭଏ

Datt(x)ߢ⴫␜ߔࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯mߦಽ㘃ߐࠇߚߐࠇߚ಴ജߣAMeDASࠍ↪޿ߚ‫ޕ‬ౣ⸃ᨆߣߪ㧘ਇⷙ࠺࡯࠲ߩ㓸วࠍࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯Sm㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢߩઍ⴫

ೣߦಽᏓߒߚ᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ㧘಴᧪߁ࠆ㒢ࠅቴⷰ⊛୯ࠍࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯CLm(x)ߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ߦဋ৻ߥ♖ᐲࠍ߽ߜ㧘߆ߟⷙೣ⊛ߦ㈩⟎ߐࠇߚᩰሶ

Step1㧦߹ߕ㧘ੂᢙߦࠃࠅDatt(x)߆ࠄᦨೋߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲

ὐߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇⽎ⷐ⚛ߩ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣࠍ޿߁㧔ᦺୖ࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯CLm(x)ࠍNC୘᳿ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ᱜࠄ㧘1995㧕‫੹ޕ‬࿁ߪ㧘1979ᐕ߆ࠄ2000ᐕ㧘ᣣᧄ๟

－ 702 －

CLm ( x)(1)

Datt ( x)Step10㧦Step9ߢಽഀࠍⴕߞߚ႐วߪStep2ߦ߽ߤࠆ‫ޕ‬
Step11㧦ోߡߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯㑆ߢ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯

Step2㧦ߘࠇߙࠇߩ࠺࡯࠲ߏߣߦฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲

OFm,m’ 㧔ᄖㇱ〒㔌㧕ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬࡯ߦኻߔࠆ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFi,mࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬1Nx

OFi , mOFm, m 'Nx¦ ( Dat ( x)  CL ( x))  w
i

m

x

1
Nx

(2)

Nx

¦ ( CL ( x)  CL ( x))  w
m

m'

x

(9)

x 1

Step12㧦⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFm,m’ 㧔ᄖㇱ〒㔌㧕߇

x 1

ߎߎߢ㧘wxߪxߦ߅ߌࠆ㊀ߺଥᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬^

Step3㧦ᰴߦ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFi,mࠍᦨዊߦߔࠆࠃ

`min OFm, m ' d Tc

(10)߁ߥࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯Sjߦഀࠅઃߌࠆ
ࠍḩߚߔߣ߈㧘ᰴᑼߦࠃࠅ2ߟߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯
Xi  S j

 if OFi , j  OFi , j ' ( j z j ' )(3)ࠍ1ߟߦ߹ߣ߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬

Step4㧦ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦዻߔࠆ࠺࡯࠲߇ή߆ߞߚ႐ว㧘

CLm* ( x)ߘߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍᶖ෰ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬1Nm

CLm ( x)(11)ߚߛߒ㧘șccߪ෼᧤᧦ઙߣߒߡቯ߼ߚ⛔วൻࡄ࡜ࡔ

Step5㧦ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯Smߦዻߔࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߩᐔဋ୯ࠍข
ࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ࠍᣂߒߊߔࠆ‫ޕ‬N m  CLm ( x)  N m'  CLm ' ( x)N m  N m'࡯࠲ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬
Step13㧦߽ߒ㧘⸘▚ߩ➅ࠅ㄰ߒ࿁ᢙ߇KCTߩߣ߈ߪ¦

Datt ( x)(4)

Dat t S m

Step14߳㧘ߘ߁ߢߥߌࠇ߫Step2߳ᚯࠆ‫ޕ‬
Step14㧦⸘▚⚳ੌߚߛߒ㧘NmߪSmౝߩ࠺࡯࠲ߩᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬
Step6㧦ߘࠇߙࠇߩ࠺࡯࠲ߏߣߦᣂߒ޿ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮

ᧄᚻᴺߢߪೋᦼ᧦ઙߣߒߡ㧘ೋᦼࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ᢙNC 㧘ࡦ࠲࡯ߦኻߔࠆ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFi,mࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍಽഀߔࠆߣ߈ߩၮḰߣߥࠆࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲

Step7㧦ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯Smߦዻߔࠆࠨࡦࡊ࡞࠺࡯࠲ߩࠢșs 㧘ಽഀߩ㓙ߩቯᢙK㧘2ߟߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ࠍ

࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߦኻߔࠆ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFi,m ߩᐔဋ߹ߣ߼ࠆᤨߩၮḰߣߥࠆࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲șc 㧘⸘▚ߩ➅ࠅ㧔ౝㇱ〒㔌㧕ࠍᰴᑼߦࠃࠅ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬

㄰ߒ࿁ᢙKCT㧘㊀ߺଥᢙwxࠍ᳿߼ߡ߅߆ߥߌࠇ߫ߥ

1
Nm

Dm

ࠄߥ޿‫ޕ‬ᒰὼߢߪ޽ࠆ߇㧘ಽ㘃࠺࡯࠲Datt(x)߽޽ࠄ

¦OFi , m(5)

Datt S m߆ߓ߼᳿߼ߡ߅ߊᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᦨㆡಽ㘃ߩ⹏ଔಽ㘃ࠍⴕ߁㓙ߦ↪޿ࠆಽ㘃࠺࡯࠲߿ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߪ㧘

Step8㧦ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯Smߢߩ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ୯OFi,mߩᮡḰ஍ᄙߊߩ⚵ߺวࠊߖ߇⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫⎇ᧄޕ‬ⓥߢߪߎࠇࠄ

Ꮕࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠍ⹜ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦ↪޿ߡ㧘ᄙᢙߩಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍ૞ࠅ಴ߒ㧘s ( m)

1Nm

2¦ ^OFi,m  Dm `(6)ߘߩਛ߆ࠄᦨ߽⦟޿ಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍណ↪ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

Datt S mಽ㘃ߩ⹏ଔၮḰߢ޽ࠆ߇㧘ᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪ㨬ㆡಾߥಽ㘃⚿ᨐߣߪ㧘CGCMߩ20਎♿ታ㛎಴ജ߿᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴

Step9㧦ߎߎߢ㧘s ( m) t T s(7)ߢ޽ࠇ߫CLmࠍᰴᑼߦࠃߞߡ2ߟߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲
࡯ߦಽߌࠆ‫ޕ‬ജ߇ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯⟲ࠃࠅᄢ߈ߊߕࠇߕ㧘ߐࠄߦኻ⽎ᵹၞߦ㒠᳓ࠍ⿠ߎߒߚ࠺࡯࠲ߣ⿠ߎߐߥ߆ߞ
ߚ࠺࡯࠲߇㧘ߢ߈ࠆߛߌࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߏߣߦߪߞ߈ࠅ
ߣಽ߆ࠇߡ޿ࠆ⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆ㨭ߣቯ⟵ߔࠆ‫⎇ᧄޕ‬ⓥߢߪ
ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߣ㒠᳓㊂ߩ⛔⸘⊛㑐ଥࠍ↪޿ߡ዁᧪ߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߚ߼㧘CGCM಴ജߩᲣ㓸࿅߇ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲

CLm ( x )CLm ( x)CLm ( x)  Ks (m)CLm ( x)  Ks (m)(8)࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߩᲣ㓸࿅ߣᄢ߈ߊߕࠇࠇ߫㧘⛔⸘⊛㑐ଥࠍ೑↪ߢ߈ߥߊߥࠆᕟࠇ߇޽ࠆߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘㒠᳓ࠍ⿠ߎߒߚ࠺࡯࠲ߣ⿠ߎߐߥ߆ߞߚ࠺࡯࠲߇㧘ߚߛߒ㧘șsߪ෼᧤᧦ઙߣߒߡቯ߼ߚᮡḰ஍Ꮕ㧘Kߪ
ೋᦼ୯ߣߒߡਈ߃ߚቯᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߢ߈ࠆߛߌࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߏߣߦߪߞ߈ࠅߣಽ߆ࠇߡ޿
ࠆߣ޿߁ቯ⟵ࠍⴕߞߚℂ↱ߪ㧘ኻ⽎ᵹၞߩ㒠᳓ߣࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥࠍ଻㓚ߔࠆߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬－ 703 －

ߎߎߢ㧘೨ᓟ3ᤨ㑆㧔⸘6ᤨ㑆㧕ߦኻ⽎ᵹၞߢ㒠᳓ ᡷ⦟ߐࠇߚ9GCVJGT)GPGTCVQTࠍ⿠ߎߒߚ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ㨬᦭㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲㨭㧘ߘ߁ߢߥ޿߽

ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ߩ⚿ᨐࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘Weather Generatorߩࠍ㨬ή㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲㨭ߣ๭߱ߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ቯ⟵ߦ

ᴺߦࠃࠅฦ᷹ⷰὐ㧘1ᤨ㑆ߏߣߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍቯ㊂⊛ߦ᳞ᒰߡߪ߹ࠆಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍតߔߚ߼㧘಴᧪ߚࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯

߼ࠆߎߣࠍ⹜ߺࠆ‫ߦ⊛⥸৻ޕ‬Weather Generatorᴺߪ޽࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߦኻߒ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇߩᚲዻ࠺࡯࠲ߣߩ〒㔌ߩࠆ1࿾ὐߩᣣ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߚ߼ߦ↪޿ࠄࠇࠆ߇㧘੹ᐔဋ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬࿁ߪߎࠇࠍᡷ⦟ߒ㧘ⶄᢙὐߩ1ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߚߛߒ㧘߹ߕᵹၞో૕ߩ6ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼㧘ߘߩᰴ

N

¦ OF

ߦฦ᷹ⷰὐ1ᤨ㑆߅߈ߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߣ޿߁㧘2Ბ

i,m

Eobs

i 1

Datt  S m

N

(12)

㓏ᣇᑼࠍណ↪ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᵹၞᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ᰴߦ㧘CGCMߩ20਎♿ታ㛎಴ജࠍࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲

ᵹၞో૕6ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߚ߼ߦ㧘߹ߕ㒠᳓⊒࡯ߦഀࠅઃߌ㧘࠺࡯࠲ߣࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯߹ߢߩ

↢ߩ᦭ήࠍࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦߒ㧘㒠㔎߇޽ࠆ႐วߦ

〒㔌ߩᐔဋ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߪࠟࡦࡑಽᏓࠍ↪޿ߡ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ㆊ෰ߩ᷹ⷰߐࠇߚ㒠᳓㊂߆ࠄ㧘ᵹၞో૕ߢߩ᧦ઙ

N

¦ OF

ઃ߈㒠᳓⊒↢ ⏕₸ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ ‫ޕ‬㒠᳓߇޽ߞ ߚ႐ว㧘

i,m

E20

i 1

Datt  S m

N

(13)

Y(t)=1㧘ή㒠᳓ߩ႐วߪY(t)=0ߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ᰴߦ㧘એਅߩࠃ߁ߥ⏕₸pmࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജ߽ห᭽ߦߔࠆ‫ޕ‬pm (0)

N

¦ OF

4

­°
P ®Y (i, t )
°̄

1|

­°
P ®Y (i, t )
°̄

1|

¦

Y (i , t  k )

k 1

i,m

E21

i 1

N

Datt  S m(14)pm (1)

Eobs㧘E20㧘E21߇એਅߩ᧦ઙࠍḩߚߐߥ޿ಽ㘃⚿ᨐߪ㧘½°
0, t  S m ¾
°¿

4

(18)

½

¦Y (i, t  k ) ! 0, t  S °¾°
m

(19)

¿

k 1

20਎♿ታ㛎಴ജ߿᷷ᥦൻታ㛎ߩ಴ജ߇㧘⃻࿷ߣᄢ߈ᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪ6ᤨ㑆ࠍ࠲ࠗࡓࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߣߒߡ޿ࠆߩߢ㧘ߊ㔌ࠇߡߒ߹޿⛔⸘⊛ߥ㑐ଥ߇፣ࠇߡ޿ࠆ್ᢿߒ㧘pm ߪᵹၞ೨24ᤨ㑆ߩ㒠᳓ߩ᦭ήߣࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍ᧦ઙ

᫈ළߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ߣߔࠆᵹၞ㒠᳓⊒↢⏕₸ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬2  Eobs ! E20(15)

4  E20 ! E21(16)᫈ළߐࠇߥ߆ߞߚ߽ߩߩਛ߆ࠄ㧘᦭㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲ߣή

ᓧࠄࠇߚ⏕₸ࠃࠅ৻᭽ಽᏓࠍᜬߟੂᢙ ȁ ࠍ⊒↢ߐߖߡ㧘ᵹၞߢߩ㒠᳓ߩ᦭ήࠍࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦߔࠆ‫ޕ‬If¦Y (t  k ) 0, t  S , Y (t ) 1 for Z d p (0)

(20)

If

¦Y (t  k ) 0, t  S , Y (t ) 1 for Z d p (1)

(21)

m

m

㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲߇߁߹ߊಽ߆ࠇߡ޿ࠆ߆ߢᦨㆡಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍ್ᢿߔࠆ‫ౕޕ‬૕⊛ߦߪฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ౝߢ᦭㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲߇ో࠺࡯࠲ߦභ߼ࠆഀว ǩ c,iࠍ᳞߼㧘ಽ㘃⚿ᨐߏߣߦ ǩ c,iߩ ಽᢔ୯ ǻ cࠍߣࠆ‫ߒߛߚޕ‬㧘࠺࡯࠲ᢙ߇30એਅߩዊࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߪ᦭㒠᳓ࠗࡌࡦ࠻ߩභ߼ࠆഀว
߇ᭂ┵ߦჇᷫߔࠆน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘⸘▚߆ࠄ㒰ᄖߒߚ‫ޕ‬mm

ᰴߦ㧘㒠᳓߇޽ߞߚ႐วߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߚ߼㧘ᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂㗫ᐲࠍㄭૃߒߚࠟࡦࡑಽᏓࠍ૞ࠆ‫ߥߔޕ‬ࠊߜ㧘ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ౝߢᚲዻ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ㧘ᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂ߣ⋧㑐ߩ㜞޿਄ⓨ࠺࡯࠲qtࠍၮߦᰴߩ3ߟߩዊࠣ࡞࡯

if N c,i ! 30

D c ,isc

Nrc,i
N c ,iࡊߦಽߌࠆ‫ޕ‬(17)
U (t )s (D c,i )ߚߛߒ㧘Nc,i㧧ಽ㘃⚿ᨐcߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯i ߦዻߔࠆ࠺࡯
࠲ᢙ㧘Nrc,i㧧ಽ㘃⚿ᨐcࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯i ߩ᦭㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲ºª0, qt d m
»
«
1
,
1
.
2
m
q
m
s

d

t
»
«
»¼
«¬2, m  1.2s  qt(22)ߐࠄߦ㧘ฦዊࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߢ⊒↢ߒߚ㒠᳓㊂ߩ㗫ᐲಽᏓࠍࠟࡦࡑಽᏓߢㄭૃߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩߘޕ‬ಽᢔ୯ ǻ c ߇ᄢ߈߆ߞߚಽ㘃⚿ᨐ߇㧘ᦨㆡಽ㘃⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆߣߺߥߔ‫ޕ‬－ 704 －

f n,m ( x )x k 1e  x /T*(k )T k

for x ! 0, t  S m , t  U (m) (23)ߎߎߢ㧘kߣș ߪࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ಽᏓࠍ߽ߟ

ߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᑼ (26)ߢ 3ߟߩ࠲ࠗࡊߦಽߌࠆߩߪ㧘㒠ੂᢙ Ri ࠍ⊒↢ߐߖࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ㧘㒠᳓߇⿠ߎࠆߣ

᳓㊂ߣ㒠᳓ߩࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߩ⋧㑐ࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦߐࠇߚߣ߈ߩ6ᤨ㑆ᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂

PRCP(t)ࠍ▚಴ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ㆡ↪

PRCP (t )

(24)

Rt

 ኻ⽎ᵹၞᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪ㧘࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߔࠆኻ⽎ࠍർᶏ㆏ߩዥ೎Ꮉߣ਻Ꮊߩ੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞߣߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᷹ⷰὐ㒠᳓㊂
ᵹၞ 6ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂߆ࠄ㧘ㆊ෰ߩ㒠᳓㊂ಽᏓࠍෳᾖߒ

ዥ೎Ꮉߪ㧘ᐙ✢ᵹ〝ᑧ㐳 126km㧘ᵹၞ㕙Ⓧ 1640km2

ߡ AMeDASฦ᷹ⷰὐ࡮ 1ᤨ㑆ߏߣߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߩᓟᔒ࿾ᣇᦨᄢߩ৻⚖ᴡᎹߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᵹၞߩ᳇୥ߪ㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦಽߌࠄࠇߚㆊ෰ߩ㒠᳓㊂࠺࡯࠲ࠍ㧘ฦⵣᣣᧄᶏဳ᳇୥ߦዻߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ฬ㚤࿾ὐࠃࠅ਄ᵹ㧔ᵹၞࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ౝߢᰴߩ᧦ઙߦࠃࠅ 4 ߟߩ࠲ࠗࡊߦಽߌ

㕙Ⓧ 1402.2km2㧕ࠍኻ⽎ߦ⸃ᨆࠍⴕߞߚ‫ޕ‬੖ࡩἑᎹߪᐙ✢ᵹ〝ᑧ㐳 106km㧘ᵹၞ㕙Ⓧ 1820km2ࠆ‫ޕ‬

G (0,0)G (0,1)G (1,0)G (1,1)ߩ৻⚖ᴡᎹߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᵹၞߩ᳇୥ߪ㧘ᥦ߆ߊ㔎㊂ߩᄙ

^Y (i, t  1) 0, Y (i, t  1) 0`^Y (i, t  1) 0,Y (i, t  1) 1`^Y (i, t  1) 1.Y (i, t  1) 0`^Y (i, t  1) 1,Y (i, t  1) 1`

޿ධᶏဳ᳇୥඙ߦ඙ಽߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ਃベ࿾ὐࠃࠅ਄ᵹ㧔ᵹ(25)

ၞ㕙Ⓧ 1044.1km2㧕ࠍኻ⽎ߦ⸃ᨆࠍⴕߞߚ㧔࿖࿯੤ㅢ⋭ᴡᎹዪ㧘 2004 㧕‫ࠄߥߗߥޕ‬㧘 1) ᵹၞߦᄢ߈ߥ࠳ࡓ
߇ߥ޿ߚ߼㧘᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆ㒠᳓ᄌൻߩᓇ㗀ࠍᄢ߈ߊߐࠄߦ㧘ᵹၞో૕ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߦࠃࠅ 3 ࠲ࠗࡊߦಽߌࠆ‫ޕ‬ฃߌࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧘 2) ᵹၞਅᵹߩㆡᒰߥ႐ᚲߦᵹ
㊂᷹ⷰᚲ߇޽ࠅ㧘᷹ⷰߣࡕ࠺࡞ߩᲧセ߇ኈᤃߢ޽ࠆ㧘3) ਔᴡᎹߪ߹ߞߚߊ⇣ߥࠆ᳇୥඙ߦዻߒߥ߇ࠄ߽ߘ

^PRCP(t )  20`H (2) ^20 d PRCP (t )  50`H (3) ^50 d PRCP (t )`
H (1)

(26)

ߩ㓸᳓㕙Ⓧߪห⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠆߚ߼㧘᳇୥඙ߦࠃࠆ᷷ᥦ
ൻߩᓇ㗀ߩ㆑޿ࠍᬌ⸛ߢ߈ࠆ㧘ߣߩὐ߇ℂ↱ߣߒߡ᜼ߍࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠃߞߡ㧘ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ౝߩ࠺࡯࠲ߪ 12ߩዊࠣ࡞࡯ࡊ

 ಽ㘃ߦ↪޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲࡮ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲

ߦಽߌࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ᰴߦ㧘 (1) ߢ᳞߼ߚᵹၞో૕ߩ 6 ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂߇㧘 12

2.3ߢㅀߴߚࠃ߁ߦ㧘ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ࠍⴕ߁ߦᒰߚߞ

ߩዊࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߩ߁ߜ㧘ߤߎߦᒰߡߪ߹ࠆ߆್ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ߡ㧘ߤߩࠃ߁ߥ࠺࡯࠲ࠍߤߩࠃ߁ߦࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ↪

ߘߒߡ㧘หߓࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࡮ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦዻߒߡ޿ࠆ㒠޿ߡಽ㘃ߔࠆ߆㧘ߚߊߐࠎߩ⚵ߺวࠊߖ߇⠨߃ࠄࠇ

᳓㊂ಽᏓࠍ࡜ࡦ࠳ࡓߦ߭ߣߟㆬ߮㧘6ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂߇৻

ࠆ‫⎇ᧄޕ‬ⓥߢߪߘࠇߙࠇ୥⵬ߣߥࠆ᳇⽎ⷐ⚛࡮▸࿐࡮⥌ߔࠆࠃ߁ߦ Ktࠍਸ਼ߓࠆ‫ޕ‬ಽ㘃࠺࡯࠲ߩ૞ᚑᣇᴺ㨯ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ޿ߊߟ߆᜼ߍ㧘ߘࠇࠍ⹜ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦ⹜ߒߡಽ㘃ࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬K t  prcp hist
j ,t ' ( h )prcp j ,t (h) ᳇⽎ⷐ⚛

t , t ' S m , t , t ' G ( a, b), t , t ' H (c)
Kt

(27)

PRCP(t )Table 2 ߦ␜ߐࠇߚ 3ߟߩ᳇⽎ⷐ⚛ࠍߘࠇߙࠇಽ㘃
ߒߚ‫ޕ‬

6

¦¦ prcp (h)j ,tTable 2㩷 Classified meteorological dataj h 1ߎߎߢ㧘 prcpj,t(h)ߪ࿾ὐ j㧘࠲ࠗࡓࠬ࠹࠶ࡊ t㧘࠲ࠗࡓࠬ࠹࠶ࡊౝᤨೞ hߦ߅ߌࠆ㒠᳓㊂ߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬prcp

his

tj,t (h)ߪㆊ෰ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߢ޽ࠆ

z500

500hPaࠫࠝࡐ࠹ࡦࠪࡖ࡞㜞ᐲ

m

T500

500hPa᳇᷷K

slp

ᶏ㕙ᦝᱜ᳇࿶

Pa

ߎߩᚻᴺߪ㧘ታ⾰หߓࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦዻߔࠆㆊ෰ߩ
㒠᳓ಽᏓࠍ↪޿ߡ 6 ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂߆ࠄฦ᷹ⷰὐ 1ᤨ㑆㒠 ಽ㘃ኻ⽎ࠛ࡝ࠕ᳓㊂ࠍ૞ࠅ಴ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ߥ߁ࠃߩߎޕ‬ᚻᴺࠍណ↪ߒߚಽ㘃ߦ↪޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߩ㗔ၞ୥⵬ߣߒߡ㧘ኻ⽎ᵹၞ

ℂ↱ߣߒߡߪ㧘᷷ᥦൻߒߡ߽ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦ߇หߓߢ޽ࠇ

ߦวࠊߖߘࠇߙࠇ Fig. 3ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߥ 3⒳㘃ߩࠛ࡝ࠕ߫㧘㒠᳓ಽᏓ߽޽߹ࠅᄢ߈ߊᄌࠊࠄߥ޿ߢ޽ࠈ߁ߣ

ࠍ⹜ߒߚ‫ޕ‬⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᑼ (25)ߢ 4ߟߩ࠲ࠗࡊߦಽߌ ಽ㘃࠺࡯࠲૞ᚑᣇᴺ

ߡ޿ࠆߩߪ㧘೨ᓟ 6ᤨ㑆ߣߩ㒠᳓ߩㅪ⛯ᕈࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆಽ㘃ߦ↪޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߪ߹ߕ㧘 CGCMࡕ࠺࡞ߩ♽⛔

－ 705 －

⺋Ꮕࠍขࠅ㒰ߊߚ߼ߦ㧘ߔߴߡ᦬ߏߣߦᮡḰ஍ᏅߢN¦ Obs ( x, y)ࡁ࡯ࡑ࡜ࠗ࠭ ߒߡ೑↪ߔࠆ ߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ࠅ߹ߟ ޕ‬㧘m ,iJRA25಴ജߪએਅߩᑼߢᄌ឵ߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬*
Obsm,t ( x, y )NObsm,t ( x, y )  i 1¦ Obs ( x, y)¦ Obs ( x, y)

m ,i

*
Obsm
, t ( x, y )Obsm,t( x, y )  i 1

N¦ Obs ( x, y)

(29)
2

m ,i

i 1

N

(28)

N

N

N

2

ߎߎߢ㧘x㧧⚻ᐲ㧘y㧧✲ᐲ㧘mߪ᦬㧘tߪᤨೞ㧘Datm,t(x,y)

m ,iߪᄌ឵ᓟߩ࠺࡯࠲㧘Obsm,t(x,y)ߪ JRA25಴ജ㧘N㧧m᦬

i 1

Nߩ࠻࡯࠲࡞࠺࡯࠲ᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬CGCM ߩ 20 ਎♿ታ㛎಴ߎߎߢ㧘x㧧⚻ᐲ㧘y㧧✲ᐲ㧘mߪ᦬㧘tߪᤨೞ㧘Datm,t(x,y)ജߪ㧘 CGCM ߩࠣ࡝࠶࠼߇⚂ 1.125 ᐲ߅߈㧘 JRA25 ߩߪᄌ឵ᓟߩ࠺࡯࠲㧘Obsm,t(x,y)ߪ JRA25಴ജ㧘N㧧m᦬ࠣ࡝࠶࠼߇ 1.25ᐲ߅߈ߣ⧯ᐓߕࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼㧘JRA25

ߩ࠻࡯࠲࡞࠺࡯࠲ᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ ޕ‬CGCMߩ 20 ਎♿ታ㛎಴ߩࠣ࡝࠶࠼ߦ CGCM ߩ಴ജࠍ✢ᒻౝᝌߒߚᓟ㧘એਅജߪ㧘 CGCMߩࠣ࡝࠶࠼߇⚂ 1.125 ᐲ߅߈㧘 JRA25 ߩߩᑼߢᄌ឵ߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠣ࡝࠶࠼߇ 1.25ᐲ߅߈ߣ⧯ᐓߕࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼㧘JRA25
ߩࠣ࡝࠶࠼ߦ CGCM ߩ಴ജࠍ✢ᒻౝᝌߒߚᓟ㧘એਅ

GCM 20 m,t ( x, y )p i, j¦¦ Sim20 (lon , lat )i, i 1,2; j 1,2(loni  x) 2  (lat j  y ) 22j

i 1 j 1

1

pi, j

P

2

m,t

P

ߩᑼߢᄌ឵ߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬

2

(30)

2

¦¦ p

i, j

i 1 j 1

ዥ೎ᎹGCM 20*m,t ( x, y )ᵹၞN¦ GCM 20 ( x, y)m ,iGCM 20m,t ( x, y )  i 1

(31)

N

N

¦ (GCM 20 ( x, y)
m ,i

2

i 1

N

੖䊱ἑᎹ
ᵹၞ

Sim20m,t(x,y)ߪ CGCMߩ 20਎♿ታ㛎಴ജ㧘 loni,latiߪࠣ࡝࠶࠼ (x,y) ߩ CGCM ᩰሶߦ߅ߌࠆᦨㄭ㓞✲ᐲ⚻ᐲߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬GCMߩ᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജ߽㧘ห᭽ߦ✢ᒻౝᝌߒߚߩߜ㧘એਅߩᑼߢᄌ឵ߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬
ࠛ࡝ࠕ A
ዥ೎Ꮉ

N15-N55

ᵹၞE115-E155

੖ࡩἑ

N15-N55

ࠛ࡝ࠕ B

ࠛ࡝ࠕ C

N26.25-N51.25 N37.5-N47.5
E125-E150

GCM 21*m,t ( x, y )E135-145

NᎹᵹၞ E115-E155¦ GCM 20 ( x, y)N21.25-N26.25 N27.5-N46.25
E120-E145m ,i

E125-E135

GCM 21m,t

Fig. 3 Applied area

( x, y )  i 1

(32)

N

N

¦ (GCM 20 ( x, y)m ,i ಽ㘃࠺࡯࠲૞ᚑᣇᴺ

2

i 1

N

ಽ㘃ߦ↪޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߪ㧘 CGCM ࡕ࠺࡞ߩ♽⛔⺋Ꮕࠍขࠅ㒰ߊߚ߼ߦ㧘᦬ߏߣߦᮡḰ஍Ꮕߢࡁ࡯ࡑ࡜ࠗ
࠭ߒߡ೑↪ߔࠆߎߣߣߔࠆ‫ࠅ߹ߟޕ‬㧘 JRA25 ಴ജߪߚߛߒ㧘 Sim21m,t(x,y)ߪ CGCMߩ᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജߢ޽એਅߩᑼߢᄌ឵ߒߡ↪޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࠆ‫ࠄ߆࠲࡯࠺ߚࠇߐ࠭ࠗ࡜ࡑ࡯ࡁࠄࠇߎޕ‬㧘ᰴߩ 2
ߟߩᣇᴺߢ ISODATAߩ౉ജ୯ࠍ૞ᚑߔࠆ‫ޕ‬－ 706 －

a)ALL౉ജ̖ోࠣ࡝࠶࠻࠺࡯࠲ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

ቯᢙ Kc ߪ ALL ౉ജࠍ↪޿ߚ႐วߪ㧘 2.0 㧘 6.0 㧘 10.0 㧘min౉ജࠍ↪޿ߚ႐วߪ㧘0.001㧘0.03㧘0.05ߣቯ߼Ⲣ
Dattobs ( N x  ( y  1)  x)วቯᢙࠍ▚಴ߔࠆ‫▚⸘ޕ‬࿁ᢙ KCTߦߟ޿ߡߪ 100࿁ߣObst* ( x, y )Dattgcm 20 ( N x  ( y  1)  x)

GCM 20*t ( x, y )Dattgcm 21 ( N x  ( y  1)  x)

GCM 21*t ( x, y )(33)ߒ㧘ቯᢙ Kߪ 0.05ߣߒߚ‫ޕ‬ೋᦼࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘50㧘 100㧘 150 ߩߘࠇߙࠇߩ႐วࠍ⹜ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦ⸘▚ߒߚ‫ޕ‬㊀ߺଥᢙߪ ALL ౉ജߩ႐วߪోߡ 1 㧘 min ౉ജߩ႐วߪ (w1,w2,w3)=(0.7,0.3,0)ߣ(w1,w2,w3)=(0.4,0.3,b)min ౉ജ̖ᦨዊ୯ࠍߣࠆ႐ᚲߣߘߩ୯ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬
Dattobs (1)min x, y Obst* ( x, y )Dattobs (2)X
Nx

Dattobs (3)

Y
Ny

㪛㪸㫋

એ਄ߩࠃ߁ߥࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ⹜ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦ↪޿ߡ㧘ᦨ߽ࠃ޿ಽ㘃⚿ᨐߦ㆐ߒߚ߽ߩࠍណ↪ߔࠆ߽ߩߣߔ
ࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߩ⸳ቯ߇ਇㆡಾߢ޽ߞߚ႐ว㧘ಽ㘃߇߁߹ߊ಴᧪ߥ޿႐ว߇↢ߓߡߊࠆ‫߼ߚߩߘޕ‬㧘એਅߩ⁁ᘒߦߥߞߚᤨߦߪ⸘▚ࠍ⚳ੌߔࠆ‫ޕ‬

if min x, y Obst* ( x, y )㫆㪹㫊z Step4ߢ࠺࡯࠲ᢙ߇ 0ߣߒߡᶖ෰ߐࠇࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯

Obst* ( X , Y )߇ో૕ߩ 1/4એ਄ࠍභ߼ࠆ႐ว㩿㪈㪀 㪔 㫄 㫀㫅 㩿㪦㪹㫊 㫋 㩿 㫏㪃 㫐 㪀 㪀㪁㫋0.3)㧘 (w1,w2,w3)=(0.2,0.4,0.4)ߩ 3⒳㘃ߢ⸘▚ࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬z ಽഀࠍߒߡ૞ᚑߐࠇߚࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߦ࠺࡯㫏 㪃㫐࠲߇ഀࠅᒰߡࠄࠇߥ޿ࠃ߁ߥࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯߇ 10એ਄

㪯
‫ޓ‬
㪥㫏
‫ޓ‬
㪰
‫ޓ‬
㪛㪸㫋 㫆㪹㫊 㫋 㩿㪊㪀 㪔㪥㫐㪛㪸㫋 㫆㪹㫊 㫋 㩿㪉㪀 㪔⊒↢ߒߚ႐ว
(34)z หߓࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍಽഀߒߡⲢวߔࠆࠃ߁ߥ➅ࠅ㄰
ߒ߇ 4࿁એ਄ㅪ⛯ߢ⿠ߎߞߚ႐วz ➅ࠅ㄰ߒ⸘▚࿁ᢙ߇ᦨೋߩ 10࿁ߢ㧘ಽഀⲢว߇ 4㫀㪽 㫄 㫀㫅 㩿㪦㪹㫊 㪁㫋 㩿 㫏㪃 㫐 㪀㪀 㪔 㪦㪹㫊 㪁㫋 㩿 㪯 㪃㪰 㪀࿁એਅߒ߆⿠ߎࠄߕ㧘ೋᦼࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦᄢ߈ߊଐ㫏 㪃㫐ߎߎߦ㧘 Nx 㧘 Ny ߪಽ㘃ኻ⽎ࠛ࡝ࠕߩ⚻ᐲ࡮✲ᐲᣇะሽߒߚಽ㘃߇ߢ߈ߚ႐วz ో૕ߩඨಽએ਄ߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯߇ಽഀߐࠇߚ႐ว

ࠣ࡝࠶࠻ߩᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬z ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ᢙ߇ 15ᧂḩߦߥߞߚ႐ว

 +51&#6#ߩࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲z ➅ࠅ㄰ߒ⸘▚࿁ᢙ߇ᦨᓟߩ 10࿁ߢ߽ 6࿁એ਄ಽഀ

ಽഀ㑣୯ șs ߩ୥⵬ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ߐ߹ߑ߹ߥࠬࠤ࡯

Ⲣวࠍⴕߥߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘ᐔⴧߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ߥ޿႐ว

࡞࡮▸࿐ࠍᜬߞߚ࠺࡯࠲ࠍಽ㘃ߔࠆߚ߼㧘ోߡߩ࠺࡯࠲ߩᐔဋ႐߆ࠄߩ〒㔌ࠍ⹏ଔ㑐ᢙ OFi,mࠍ↪޿ߡ᳞߼㧘ߘߩಽᢔࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ߩ⚿ᨐ ᦨㆡಽ㘃⚿ᨐዥ೎Ꮉࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚᦨㆡಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍਈ߃ߚ᳇⽎ⷐm¦s(OFi , m ) 2

i 1

N⚛㨯࠺࡯࠲૞ᚑᣇᑼ㨯ࠛ࡝ࠕ㨯ᦨ⚳ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ᢙࠍ

, Datt  S m(35)

Table 3 ߦ㧘੖ࡩἑᎹࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚߘࠇࠄࠍTable 4ߦ␜ߔ‫ߣࠆࠃߦࠇߎޕ‬㧘ዥ೎Ꮉߢߪ౻ቄߦ min౉ജ㨯ߎߎߢ㧘Nߪ࠺࡯࠲✚ᢙߢ޽ࠆ‫ࠆ޽ߦߎߎޕ‬ቯᢙࠍਸ਼

500hPa㕙㜞ᐲ㧘ᄐߦ ALL౉ജ࡮᳇࿶߇㧘੖ࡩἑᎹߢ

ߓࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡಽ㔌㑣୯ șsࠍ᳞߼ࠆ‫ޕ‬ߪ 1ᐕࠍㅢߓߡ ALL౉ജ࡮᳇࿶߇ㆬ߫ࠇࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆
ߞߚ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ಽ㘃ኻ⽎ࠛ࡝ࠕߣߒߡߪ 1ᐕࠍㅢߓߡዥ

qs

KsS

(36)

೎Ꮉߢߪࠛ࡝ࠕ C㧘੖ࡩἑᎹߢߪ߶߷ࠛ࡝ࠕ B߇ㆬ߫ࠇࠆ⚿ᨐߣߥߞߚ‫ޕ‬

ቯᢙ Ksࠍ ALL౉ജߩ႐วߪ 0.8㧘1.8㧘2.8㧘min౉ജࠍ ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯

↪޿ߚ႐วߪ 0.4 㧘 0.7 㧘 1.0 ߣߒߘࠇߙࠇಽ㔌㑣୯ șs੖ࡩἑᎹࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚ 1᦬ߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯

ࠍ▚಴ߒ㧘ߘࠇࠄࠍ⹜ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦណ↪ߒߡಽ㘃ࠍⴕߩ᭽ሶࠍઃ㍳ߦ␜ߔ‫ ࠕ࡝ࠛޕ‬B࡮ALLᣇᑼߢ૞ᚑߐࠇ

߁‫Ⲣޕ‬ว㑣୯ șc߽ಽ㔌㑣୯ߣห᭽㧘ో૕ߩಽᢔߦ޽

ߚ᳇࿶࠺࡯࠲ࠍಽ㘃ߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘 63ߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ

ࠆቯᢙࠍਸ਼ߓࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ▚ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬࠲࡯߇ሽ࿷ߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯߇㆑ߞߚࡄ࠲࡯ࡦࠍ
ౣ⃻ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫਻ޕ‬Ꮊઃㄭߦ㜞࿶ㇱ߇޽ࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯

qe

Ke s

(37)

28,38,57ߪ㧘੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞߦ㒠᳓ࠍ߹ߞߚߊ⿠ߎߐߥ
޿ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢ޽ߞߚ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇૐ࿶ㇱ߇޽ࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲
࡯ 36,41,62ߢߪ 5᷹ⷰὐ✚⸘ߢ 100mmએ਄ߩ㒠᳓ࠍ⿠

－ 707 －

ߚ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജߩᚲዻᢙߪᄢ߈ߊߕࠇߡ

ߎߒߚߎߣߩ޽ࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬ห᭽ߩ௑ะߪઁߩ᦬ߛߌߢߥߊ㧘ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߦ߅
޿ߡ߽⷗ࠄࠇ㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߏߣߦ᦭㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲ߣή

޿ࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬௑ะߪᄐࠃࠅ߽౻ߦ㧘੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞࠃࠅ
ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߢ㗼⪺ߣߥߞߡ޿ߚ‫ޕ‬㒠᳓࠺࡯࠲߇޽ࠆ⒟ᐲಽ߆ࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇⷗ߡขࠇ
ߚ‫ޕ‬

㪡㪸㫅

㪡㪩㪘㪉㪌

㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪇㪺

㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪈㪺䊂䊷䉺ᢙ㪉㪌㪇Table 3㩷 Classified results at the Shiribetu River
ᦨ⚳ࠢ

㪉㪇㪇
㪈㪌㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪌㪇
㪇
㪈

౉ജ
᦬

ᣇᑼ

ࠛ࡝
㊀ߺଥᢙ

ⷐ⚛

ࠕ

㪍

㪈㪈 㪈㪍 㪉㪈 㪉㪍 㪊㪈 㪊㪍 㪋㪈 㪋㪍 㪌㪈 㪌㪍 㪍㪈 㪍㪍 㪎㪈 㪎㪍 㪏㪈 㪏㪍 㪐㪈 㪐㪍 㪈㪇㪈࡜ࠬ࠲䉪䊤䉴䉺䊷⇟ภ

㪡㫌㫃

࡯ᢙ

㪡㪩㪘㪉㪌

㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪇㪺

㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪈㪺

JanMin

0.2,0.4,0.4

z500

C

105

Feb

Min

0.7,0.3,0

z500

C

143

Mar

Min

0.2,0.4,0.4

z500

C

90

䊂䊷䉺ᢙ

㪋㪇㪇
㪊㪇㪇
㪉㪇㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪇
㪈

㪍

㪈㪈

㪈㪍

䉪䊤䉴䉺䊷⇟ภAprMin

0.2,0.4,0.4

z500

C

82

May

ALL

ోߡ 1

slp

C

15

Jun

ALL

ోߡ 1

slp

C

15

Jul

ALL

ోߡ 1

slp

C

17

Aug

ALL

ోߡ 1

slp

C

17

Sep

ALL

ోߡ 1

slp

C

15

Table 5 䈮ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂䈫䋬਄ⓨ䈱᳇⽎䊂䊷

Oct

Min

0.7,0.3,0

z500

C

143

䉺䈱⋧㑐ଥᢙ䈮䈧䈇䈩䋬Table 6 䈮੖䊱ἑᎹᵹၞ䈱

Nov

Min

0.2,0.4,0.4

z500

C

78

⋧㑐ଥᢙ䈮䈧䈇䈩␜䈜䇯䈭䈍䋬⋧ᒰ᷷૏䈲ᲧḨ䊂䊷

Dec

Min

0.2,0.4,0.4

z500

C

82

䉺䈫᳇᷷䊂䊷䉺䈎䉌ዉ䈐಴䈘䉏䉎㊂䈪䈅䉎䇯

Fig. 4㩷 Number of data against clusters at theShiribetu River 9GCVJGT)GPGTCVQTߩㆡ↪ ᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂ߣ⋧㑐ߩ㜞޿਄ⓨ࠺࡯࠲

Table 4㩷 㩷 Classified results at the Gokase River
౉ജ

qe

䉣䊥

ᦨ⚳䉪䊤

§ Lw ·¸, qq  exp¨¨ C pT ¸©
¹

R / Cp§P · dT¨ 0 ¸
© P¹

(38)

᦬

ᣇᑼ

㊀䉂ଥᢙ

ⷐ⚛

䉝

䉴䉺䊷ᢙ

ߎߎߢ㧘 Cv ߪቯኈᲧᾲߢ 717J/K ࡮ kg 㧘 Rd ߪੇ῎ⓨ᳇

Jan

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

63

ߦኻߔࠆ᳇૕ቯᢙߢ 287m2/s2 ࡮ K 㧘 P0 ߪᮡḰߩ᳇࿶

Feb

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

C

60

1000hPa 㧘 㧸 ߪಝ⚿ߩẜᾲߢ 2.5  106J/kg 㧘 w 㨟 㧘 T ߪ

Mar

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

79

ⓨ᳇႙ߩᷙวᲧߣ᷷ᐲߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬

Apr

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

A

97

May

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

75

Jun

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

96

Jul

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

97

Aug

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

17

Sep

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

15

Oct

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

15

Nov

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

A

89

Dec

ALL

ో䈩 1

slp

B

44

Table 5㩷 Relationship between precipitation andmeteorological conditions at the Shiribetu River
ⷐ⚛㩷
ᲧḨ㩷
⋧ᒰ᷷૏

㜞ᐲ㩷

⋧㑐ଥᢙ㩷

㪌㪇㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪉㪎㩷㪏㪌㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪊㪉㩷㪌㪇㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪈㪋㩷㪏㪌㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪉㪈㩷

Table 6㩷 Relationship between precipitation andmeteorological conditions at the Gokase River  %)%/಴ജ߳ߩㆡ↪
CGCM ߩ 20 ਎♿ታ㛎಴ജߣ᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജࠍߘࠇ
ߙࠇቢᚑߒߚࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߦഀࠅઃߌߡ޿ߊ‫ޕ‬

ⷐ⚛㩷
ᲧḨ㩷

ዥ೎Ꮉࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߚ 1᦬ߣ 7 ᦬ߩฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦᚲዻ
ߔࠆ࠺࡯࠲ᢙࠍ Fig. 4ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬20਎♿ታ㛎಴ജߪ㧘߶߷ JRA25 ಴ജߣหߓᢙߛߌฦࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦഀࠅઃߌ
ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘৻ㇱߩࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢߪᄢ߈ߥᏅ߇಴

－ 708 －

⋧ᒰ᷷૏

㜞ᐲ㩷

⋧㑐ଥᢙ㩷

㪌㪇㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪊㪋㩷㪏㪌㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪋㪐㩷㪌㪇㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪉㪍㩷㪏㪌㪇㪿㪧㪸㩷

㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷ߎࠇࠄߩ⴫߆ࠄ㧘ਔᵹၞߢߪᒙ޿ߥ߇ࠄ߽㒠᳓㊂ߣߡ߅ࠅ㧘ߘߩᓇ㗀ࠍ⷗ࠆߚ߼ߦ 5࿁ㆡ↪ࠍⴕߥߞߡ㧘

850hPaᲧḨ࠺࡯࠲ߦᱜߩ⋧㑐߇޽ࠆߣ⚿⺰ઃߌࠄࠇߘࠇߙࠇߩ⚿ᨐߣ AMeDAS಴ജࠍᲧセߒߚ‫ޕ‬Fig. 5ߦࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄߆ࠄ㧘Weather Generatorᴺߦ↪޿ࠆ਄ⓨ᳇⽎ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ㧘ጤౝߣ୾⍮቟㧘 Fig. 6 ߦ੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞ㧘ⷐ⚛ߪਔᵹၞߣ߽ 850hPaᲧḨ࠺࡯࠲ߣߔࠆ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘

㜞ජⓄߣᑧጟߢߩ᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂ߩᲧセࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ᵹၞ㒠᳓㊂ߪਔᵹၞߢ߽⦟޿⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘

850hPaᲧḨߪ᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅ਄᣹ߔࠆߣ CGCMߢߪផቯߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬࿾ὐߏߣߩ㒠᳓㊂ߪ㧘୾⍮቟ߢㅢᐕㆊዊ⹏ଔߒ㧘㜞 ࠟࡦࡑಽᏓߩᬌቯ

ජⓄߣᑧጟߢᄐߦ⺋Ꮕ߇ᄢ߈ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘

Weather Generatorᴺߢ↪޿ߚࠟࡦࡑ㑐ᢙߦߟ޿ߡ㧘᦬ߏߣߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌൻߪౣ⃻ߢ߈ߡ޿ࠆߣ⸒߃ࠆ‫ޕ‬

2ㆡวᐲߩǿ ᬌቯࠍⴕߥߞߚ‫⚿ߩߘޕ‬ᨐ㧘߶ߣࠎߤߩ

Fig. 7ߦዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߦ߅ߌࠆ 6ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㗫ᐲಽᏓߣࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢෂ㒾₸ 5㧑ߢ᦭ᗧߣߥߞߚ‫ޕ‬୾⍮቟ߦ߅ߌࠆ 1ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㗫ᐲಽᏓࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ᵹၞ㒠᳓

 9GCVJGT)GPGTCVQTᴺߩ♖ᐲ

㊂㗫ᐲಽᏓߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ਔᵹၞߣ߽߶߷ታᴫࠍౣ⃻ߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘߹ߚ࡜ࡦߏߣߩಽᢔ߽ዋߥ޿‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ㧘࿾ὐߏߣߩ 1ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ߢߪ㧘ᄢ߈ߥ㒠᳓㊂ߩ⊒↢⏕₸

ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ
㪈㪏㪇

ࠍㆊᄢ⹏ଔߒߡߒ߹߁ߎߣ߇⷗ߡขࠇࠆ‫ߒ߆ߒޕ‬㧘㪈㪋㪇㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌

㪈㪉㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪏㪇
㪍㪇
㪋㪇
㪉㪇

CGCMߢߪᄢ߈ߥ⺋Ꮕࠍ⊒↢ߐߖߡ޿ߚή㒠᳓ߩ⊒↢⏕₸ߪ߶߷ታᴫߤ߅ࠅߢ޽ߞߚ‫ߩߎޕ‬௑ะߪ੖ࡩ
ἑᎹᵹၞߦ߅޿ߡ߽ห᭽ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬

㪇

୾⍮቟

㪇㪅㪋

㪇㪅㪈

㪇

㪉㪇㪄
㪊㪇

㪊㪇㪄
㪌㪇

㪌㪇㪄
㪏㪇

㪏㪇㪄
㪉㪇㪇

㪇㪅㪇㪈
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈

㪇㪅㪈
㪈㪇㪇

㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㪇㪇㪇㪌㪇㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㪈

㪈㪇

㪇㪄

㪌㪇

㪇

㪇㪇

㪄㪏

㪄㪉

㪇㪄

㪏㪇

㪉㪇

㪇

㪇

㪌㪇

㪇

㪄㪊

㪄㪌

㪉㪇

㪈㪇

㪄㪉

㪌㪄

㫍
㪥㫆

㫃

㪪㪼
㫇

㪸㫐

㪡㫌

㪸㫉

㪈㪇

㪇

㪈㪄

㪌

㪇

㪇

㪡㪸

㪈㪄㪌 㪌㪄㪈㪇 㪈㪇㪄
㪉㪇

㪇㪅㪉

㪉㪇㪇

㫅

㫍
㪥㫆

㫃

㪪㪼
㫇

㪸㫐

㪡㫌

㪸㫉

㪤

㪡㪸

㪤

㪇

㪇㪅㪌

㪈

㪇㪅㪊

㪤

㪌㪇

㪊㪇㪇

㪤

᦬ᐔ ဋ㒠 ᳓ ㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㪈㪇㪇㫅᦬ ᐔဋ 㒠᳓ ㊂ 䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

ጤౝ
㪈㪌㪇

୾⍮቟

ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ

㪡㪸㫅 㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉 㪘㫇㫉 㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅 㪡㫌㫃 㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺㪊㪇᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㪈㪍㪇㒠᳓㊂㩿㫄㫄㪆㪌㪻㪸㫐㫊㪀㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㪇㪈
㒠᳓㊂㩿㫄㫄㪆㪈㪿㫆㫌㫉㪀

Fig. 5 Monthly precipitation with Weather Generator

Fig. 7㩷 Frequency distribution with Weather

at the Shiribetu River

Generator: left; 6 hours precipitation for basin, right;
hourly precipitation at Kuchan੖䊱ἑᎹᵹၞ
᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㪊㪌㪇 %)%/಴ജ߳ߩㆡ↪

㪊㪇㪇
㪉㪌㪇

㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋
㪮㪞㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌

㪉㪇㪇
㪈㪌㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪌㪇

Fig. 8ߦዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ CGCM಴ജࠍ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߒߚ⚿ᨐߩ᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬20਎♿ౣ⃻ታ㛎಴ജࠍ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߒߚ⚿ᨐ(એਅ㧘20਎♿࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐ )ߪ⃻ᴫߣ߶ߣࠎߤᄌൻ߇ߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജߩ࠳㪇㪡㪸㫅 㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉 㪘㫇㫉 㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅 㪡㫌㫃 㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐ (એਅ㧘᷷ᥦൻ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝
ᑧጟ␜ߔ߇㧘 12㨪 4᦬ߩᷫዋ᏷ߪ୾⍮቟ߩᣇ߇ᄢ߈޿‫ޕ‬㪈㪇㪇

JRA25಴ജߦ Weather Generatorᴺࠍㆡ↪ߒߚ⚿ᨐ (એ
㫍
㪥㫆

㫃

㪪㪼
㫇

㪡㫌

㪸㫐

㪇

㪸㫉

㫍
㪥㫆

㫃

㪪㪼
㫇

㪸㫐

㪡㫌

㪸㫉

㪤

㪡㪸

㪤

㪇

㪉㪇㪇

㪤

㪈㪇㪇

ߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬ጤౝߣ୾⍮቟ߩ㒠᳓㊂߽ห᭽ߩ௑ะࠍ㪊㪇㪇㪤᦬ᐔ ဋ㒠 ᳓ ㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

㪉㪇㪇

㪋㪇㪇

㫅

㪊㪇㪇

ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐ )ߪ㧘 12㨪 4᦬ߣ 10᦬ߦ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߔࠆߎ

㪌㪇㪇

㪡㪸

㪋㪇㪇

㫅

᦬ ᐔဋ 㒠᳓ ㊂ 䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

㜞ජⓄ
㪌㪇㪇

ਅ㧘JRA25࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐ )ߪ㧘5࡜ࡦߩᐔဋ
୯ߢ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬

Fig. 6Monthly precipitation with Weather Generator੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߒ

at the Gokase Riverߚ⚿ᨐࠍ㧘Fig. 9ߢ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬࿑ߦࠃࠆߣ㧘20਎♿࠳࠙ࡦ

Weather Generatorᴺߩ♖ᐲࠍᬌ⸽ߔࠆߚ߼ JRA25

ࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐߪᄐߦ㒠᳓㊂ࠍㆊዊ⹏ଔߔࠆ௑ะ

಴ജߩಽ㘃⚿ᨐߦ Weather Generatorᴺࠍㆡ↪ߒ㧘ኻ⽎߇޽ࠆߎߣ߇⷗ߡขࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦ

ᵹၞߩ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᳞߼ߡߺࠆߎߣߢ㧘ߘߩ♖ᐲᬌ⸽ࠍࠣ⚿ᨐߪ㧘 6᦬ߣ 7᦬ߦ㒠᳓㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡ޿ࠆ‫߹ޕ‬ⴕߥߞߚ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘Weather Generatorᴺߦߪੂᢙࠍ↪޿ߚ㧘6㨪 8᦬ߢߪ࡜ࡦߏߣߩಽᢔ߽ᄢ߈ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬－ 709 －

 ⠨ኤዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞ㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞ᐔဋ㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪇㪺
㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪈㪺
㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌

㪈㪏㪇
㪈㪍㪇
㪈㪋㪇
㪈㪉㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪏㪇
㪍㪇
㪋㪇
㪉㪇
㪇

㪡㪸㫅 㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉 㪘㫇㫉 㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅 㪡㫌㫃 㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺࠲࡯ߦߟ޿ߡಽᨆߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ዥ೎ߩ 1᦬ߪ min౉ജߢ૞ᚑ
ߐࠇߚಽ㘃߇ᦨㆡಽ㘃ߢ޽ࠆߩߢ㧘ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯࠮ࡦ
࠲࡯ߩ૏⟎ߣᦨዊ୯ߩᄢ߈ߐࠍ౞ߩᄢ߈ߐߢ⴫ߒߚ
߽ߩࠍ Fig. 10ߦ␜ߔ‫ ޕ‬߽ᄢ߈ߊ 3ߟߩࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦಽߌࠄࠇࠆ‫ᦨߪߟߣ߭ޕ‬ዊ

㪈㪌㪇
㪈㪇㪇

୯ࠍขࠆὐ߇ർ᧲ߦሽ࿷ߒ㧘ߘߩ୯߽ᄢ߈޿ࠣ࡞࡯

㪌㪇

㫃

㫇

㪡㫌

㪪㪼

㪸㫉

㪡㪸

㪸㫐

㪇

㫅

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㫍

㫃

㫇

㪡㫌

㪪㪼

㪸㫉

㪸㫐

㪇

㪤

⹦⚦ߥ⠨ኤࠍⴕ߁‫ޕ‬ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߦ 1᦬ߦ߅ߌࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ

1᦬ߩࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߪ 105 ߦಽ߆ࠇߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ߘߩਛߢ

㪉㪇㪇

㪤

㪌㪇

㪤

㊂߇ᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ⚿ᨐߣߥߞߚ‫⚿ߩߎޕ‬ᨐߦߟ޿ߡ

㪉㪌㪇㪤᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

㪈㪇㪇

㪡㪸

ዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߢ౻ቄߦ㧘੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞߢᄐቄߦ㒠᳓

୾⍮቟

㪈㪌㪇

㫅

᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

ጤౝ
㪉㪇㪇

㪥㫆
㫍

᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㪉㪇㪇ࡊ (એਅ㧘ർ᧲ဳ )㧘߽߁߭ߣߟߪㅒߦᦨዊ୯ࠍߣࠆߣ
ߎࠈ߇ධ⷏ߦሽ࿷ߒ㧘ߘߩ୯߽ዊߐ޿ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊ (એਅ㧘Fig. 8㩷 Monthly precipitation after downscaling atධ⷏ဳ )㧘ߘߩ߶߆ߩ㗔ၞౝߦᦨዊ୯߇ሽ࿷ߔࠆࠣ࡞

the Shiribetu River Basin࡯ࡊ (એਅ㧘ਛ㑆ဳ )ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߣߏࡊ࡯࡞ࠣߩࠇߙࠇߘޕ‬ߦ㒠᳓⊒↢⏕₸ࠍ㓸⸘ߔࠆߣ㧘Table 7 ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ

੖䊱ἑᎹᵹၞ

㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞ᐔဋ㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪇㪺
㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪈㪺
㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋㩷㪉㪇㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪈㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪉㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪊㩷㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪋㪉㪈㪚㪄㫉㫌㫅㪌

㪊㪇㪇
㪉㪌㪇
㪉㪇㪇
㪈㪌㪇
㪈㪇㪇
㪌㪇
㪇

㪡㪸㫅 㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉 㪘㫇㫉 㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅 㪡㫌㫃 㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺

㪉㪇㪇

㩷

䉴䉺 ⊒↢
䊷ᢙ ⏕₸

㪡㪩㪘㪉㪌㩷

㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪇㪺㩷 㪚㪞㪚㪤㪉㪈㪺䊂䊷䉺ᢙ㩷 䊂䊷䉺ᢙ㩷 䊂䊷䉺ᢙ

ർ᧲ဳ

㪉㪇

㪇㪅㪌㪋

㪋㪌㪌㩷

㪌㪉㪏㩷

㪈㪌㪋㪉㩷

ධ⷏ဳ

㪉㪎

㪇㪅㪏㪏

㪈㪊㪊㪐㩷

㪈㪉㪍㪐㩷

㪋㪌㪌㩷

䈠䈱ઁ

㪌㪏

㪇㪅㪏㪍

㪏㪉㪌㩷

㪐㪊㪈㩷

㪎㪊㪈㩷

㪈㪇㪇

㫇

㫃
㪡㫌

㪪㪼

㪸㫐

㪇

㪸㫉

㪥㫆
㫍

㫇

㫃
㪡㫌

㪪㪼

㪸㫐

㪤

㪸㫉

㪇

㪊㪇㪇

㪤

㪈㪇㪇

㪤

rainfall occurrence probabilities
䉪䊤 㒠᳓

㪋㪇㪇

㪤

᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀

㪉㪇㪇

㪌㪇㪇

㫅

㪊㪇㪇

㪡㪸

㪋㪇㪇

㪡㪸

Table 7㩷 Re-calculation of classified results for

ᑧጟ

㪌㪇㪇

㫅

᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㜞ජⓄᄢ߈ߥ㆑޿߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬㪥㫆㫍᦬ᐔဋ㒠᳓㊂䇭㩿㫄㫄㪀㪊㪌㪇

Fig. 9㩷 Monthly precipitation after downscaling atർ᧲ဳߪ㒠᳓⊒↢⏕₸߇ዋߥߊ㧘ධ⷏ဳ㨯ਛ㑆ဳߪ

the Gokase River Basinㅒߦᄢ߈޿‫ߩߎޕ‬㆑޿ߪએਅߩࠃ߁ߦផ᷹ߐࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ߎߩ㗔ၞߦ߅ߌࠆ౻ߩ᳇⽎ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߪ㧘ኙ᳇߇ർ߆
ࠄ߿ߞߡ߈ߡߪ෰ߞߡ޿ߊߣ޿߁᳇⽎ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߩ➅ࠅ㄰ߒߢ޽ࠆ‫ߦ⊛⥸৻ޕ‬ർᣣᧄ๟ㄝߢߪ 500hPa㜞ᐲߪർ᧲ߦⴕߊ߶ߤૐਅߔࠆ߇㧘ኙ᳇߇็߈ㄟࠎߢ߈
ߚ႐วߪో૕⊛ߦ 500hPa㜞ᐲ߽ૐਅߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ධ⷏ဳߪർ᧲ဳኙ᳇߇็߈ㄟࠎߢ߅ࠅ㧘᥉Ბߪ㜞ᐲ߇㜞޿ධ஥ߩ㜞ᐲ߇ᷫዋߔࠆߚ߼㧘ᦨዊὐߪධߦ⒖ࠅ㧘ߘߩ୯߽ዊ
ߐߊߥࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ኙ᳇ߦ઻޿ૐ᳇࿶߇⊒↢ߒ㧘ർᶏ㆏ߦ㔐ࠍ߽ߚࠄߔ‫ޕ‬ㅒߦർ᧲ဳߪᥦ᳇߇ᵹࠇㄟߺ㧘ർ᧲㓈ߦߘߩᦨዊ୯߇޽ࠆ߇ർᶏ㆏ߦߪ㒠᳓ࠍ߽ߚࠄߒߦߊ޿ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ർ᧲ဳߢ޽ࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦዻߒߡ޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߣධ⷏ဳߢ޽ࠆ
ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߦዻߒߡ޿ࠆ࠺࡯࠲ߩ৻ㇱࠍ Fig. 11ߦ␜ߔ߇㧘ධ⷏ဳߢߪ⏕߆ߦኙ᳇ߩᵹࠇㄟߺ߇⷗߃ࠆ‫ޕ‬ධ⷏ဳߥ߅㧘ಽ㘃ߢߪࡁ࡯ࡑ࡜ࠗ࠭ࠍߒߚ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ߽ߜ޿
ߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ߎߩ࿑ߢߪ⷗߿ߔߐߩߚ߼㧘⛘ኻ୯ߢ⴫

Fig. 10㩷 Locations of cluster centers at January in theߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬

Table 7߆ࠄಽ߆ࠆߣ߅ࠅ㧘᷷ᥦൻᓟߪർ᧲ဳ߇㕖

Shiribetu River Basin－ 710 －

ᏱߦჇ߃ߡ޿ࠆ‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅኙ᳇ߩ็ㄟ

ߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ߺ߇ᒙߊߥࠆߎߣ߇ේ࿃ߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫⚿ޕ‬ᨐ੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞߦ߅޿ߡߪ㧘ೋᄐߦ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߔ⊛ߦ㧘ർ᧲ဳߩჇടߦࠃࠅዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߢߪ㒠᳓⊒↢ࠆ‫ ޕ‬6 ᦬ߢߩ㒠᳓㊂㗫ᐲಽᏓߩᄌൻࠍ Fig. 12 ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬⏕₸߇ᄢ߈ߊᷫዋߔࠆ‫޿઻ߦࠇߎޕ‬㧘࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯

ዥ೎Ꮉ౻ቄߩ႐ว߶ߤߪߞ߈ࠅߣߪ⃻ࠇߡ޿ߥ޿߇㧘࡝ࡦࠣᓟߩ⚿ᨐߦ߅޿ߡ߽ή㒠᳓ߩഀว߇ 2୚ߦჇή㒠᳓ߩ⊒↢⏕₸ߩ਄᣹ߦࠃࠅ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߒߚߣ

ടߒߡ޿ࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇߢ㧘ᄢ߈ߥ㒠᳓㊂ߩ⊒↢⏕₸ߪᷫᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫ߩߎޕ‬ή㒠᳓ഀวߩ਄᣹ߩේ࿃ߪ㧘ߪߞ߈ߞߡ޿ߥ޿‫ߪࠇߎޕ‬㧘ᲧḨߩჇടߣ㑐ଥߒߡ޿ࠆߣ

ࠅߣ⷗಴ߔߎߣ߇಴᧪ߥ߆ߞߚ߇㧘᷷ᥦൻߦ઻ߞߡ

ᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄߆ࠄ㧘㒠᳓⊒↢⏕₸ߪᷫዋߔࠆ߽ߩ

࠺࡯࠲ᢙࠍჇ߿ߒߚࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߩ޿ߊߟ߇㧘㒠᳓ࠍߩ㧘㒠ࠇ߫ᄢ߈ߥ㒠᳓㊂߇⊒↢ߔࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣ߇ࠊ

⿠ߎߒߦߊ޿ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ߘߩ৻࿃ߢ޽

߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬㒠᳓㊂߇ 1᦬ߣห᭽ߦᷫዋߒߚ 12᦬㧘 2᦬㧘 3ࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᦬㧘 4᦬ߦߟ޿ߡ߽ห᭽ߩ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇߚ‫ޕ‬ಽᏓဳᵹ಴ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ߚ᳓⾗Ḯ㊂ផቯ ಽᏓဳᵹၞࡕ࠺࡞ߩ᭎ⷐ
೨┨ߩ಴ജࠍ↪޿ߡ᷷ᥦൻᤨߦ߅ߌࠆᤨ㑆⊛࡮ⓨ㑆⊛ߥ᳓ᢥ⻉㊂ߩᛠីࠍ⹜ߺࠆ‫⎇ᧄޕ‬ⓥߢߪ㧘ᵩ᳓ߛߌߢߥߊ㐳ᦼ㑆ߩᵹ಴⃻⽎ࠍᤨ㑆⊛࡮ⓨ㑆⊛ߦᛠី ߔ ࠆ ߎ ߣ ߩ ߢ ߈ ࠆ ಽ Ꮣ ဳ ᵹ ಴ ࡕ ࠺ ࡞㧔 Hydro-BEAM 㧕ࠍ↪޿ࠆ㧔ዊዥࠄ㧘 1998 㧧ᄢ಴㧘

2006 㧕‫ޕ‬ಽᏓဳᵹ಴ࡕ࠺࡞ߪㄭᐕߩ⸘▚ᯏߩಣℂ⢻ജߩჇട㧘࿾ᒻ࡮࿯࿾ߩ࠺ࠫ࠲࡞࠺࡯࠲ߩᢛ஻㧘߹ߚㇺᏒൻߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߚ㓸ਛ⽕㔎ⵍኂ߿ጊ㑆ㇱߢߩ࿯⍾ᵹ಴ߥߤᵹၞౝߩ⁜޿▸࿐ߢߩἴኂߩჇᄢࠍ⢛᥊ߣߒ㧘ᵹၞౝߢߩછᗧߩ࿾ὐߢߩᵹ಴㊂߇੍᷹ߢ߈ࠆߣ޿߁․㐳߆ࠄᕆㅦߦ⎇ⓥ߇ㅴࠎߢ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ࡔ࠶ࠪࡘࠨࠗ࠭ߪ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇߩኻ⽎ᵹၞߩⷙᮨ࡮
ᓧࠄࠇࠆ♖ᐲ࡮⸃ᨆᤨ㑆ࠍ⠨ᘦߒ㧘㧝 kmࡔ࠶ࠪࡘ߇
ㆡಾߢ޽ࠆߣ್ᢿߒߚ‫⸃ޕ‬ᨆࡔ࠶ࠪࡘᢙߪ 1) ዥ೎Ꮉ

Fig. 11㩷 Examples of classified clusters at January in㧔ฬ㚤㧕㧦 1525 㧘 2) ੖ࡩἑᎹ㧔ਃベ㧕㧦 977 ߣߥߞ

the Shiribetu River Basin: Upper; Cluster No.2;

ߚ‫߅ߥޕ‬㧘ࡔ࠶ࠪࡘߪోߡ㧝জ྾ᣇߩᱜᣇᒻߣ઒ቯSouth-West type, Lower; Cluster No.13; North-Eastߒ㧘᳓ᵹߪࡔ࠶ࠪࡘߩਛᔃࠍ᧲⷏ධർߩ 4ᣇะ޿ߕࠇ

type߆ߦᵹਅߔࠆߣ઒ቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ጀෘ࡮ᶐㅘଥᢙ╬ߩࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߪ㧘᷹ⷰᵹ㊂ߣ AMeDAS ᷹ⷰ୯ߦࠃࠆᵹ಴⸃

㪉㪇㪇㪇ᨆ⚿ᨐࠍᲧセߒ㧘หቯߒߚ‫ޕ‬

㪈㪇㪇㪇㪇

㪈㪏㪇㪇
㪈㪍㪇㪇

࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ Hydro-BEAM ߦ౉ജߒ㧘

㪈㪇㪇㪇

㪈㪋㪇㪇
㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞
㪉㪇㪚
㪉㪈㪚

㪈㪉㪇㪇
㪈㪇㪇㪇
㪏㪇㪇

㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪮㪞
㪉㪇㪚
㪉㪈㪚

㪈㪇㪇

㪈㪇

㪋㪇㪇
㪉㪇㪇
㪇

1)AMeDAS᷹ⷰ୯㧘2)20਎♿࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐ㪈㪇㪈㪄㪌 㪌㪄㪈㪇 㪈㪇㪄
㪉㪇

㪉㪇㪄
㪊㪇

㪊㪇㪄
㪌㪇

㪌㪇㪄
㪏㪇

㪏㪇㪄 㪉㪇㪇㪄㪉㪇㪇 㪌㪇㪇

᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆᵹၞߩᄌൻࠍᝒ߃ࠆ‫ߒߛߚޕ‬㧘

Hydro-BEAMߪᄙߊߩ⸘▚⾗Ḯࠍᔅⷐߣߔࠆߚ߼㧘㪍㪇㪇㪇㒠᳓㊂㩿㫄㫄㪆㪍㪿㫉㪀㪈㪄㪌 㪌㪄㪈㪇 㪈㪇㪄㪉㪇㪉㪇㪄 㪊㪇㪄 㪌㪇㪄
㪊㪇
㪌㪇
㪏㪇

㪏㪇㪄 㪉㪇㪇㪄㪉㪇㪇 㪌㪇㪇

ߩ߁ߜ 1࡜ࡦ㧘3)᷷ᥦൻ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐߩ߁㒠᳓㊂㩿㫄㫄㪆㪍㪿㫉㪀

Fig. 12㩷 Frequency distribution of precipitation atߜ 1࡜ࡦࠍ౉ജߒ㧘ߘߩ㓙ߩᵹ㊂ߦߟ޿ߡ⸃ᨆࠍⴕߥ

June in the Gokase River Basin; left; normal axis,ߞߚ‫ޕ‬

AMeDAS ᷹ⷰ୯ߣ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ౉ജright; log-axisߒ㧘ዥ೎Ꮉߩฬ㚤࿾ὐߦ߅޿ߡᓧࠄࠇߚᵹ㊂ߩ⚿ᨐ10᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂ᷫዋߦ㑐ߒߡߪ㧘․ቯߩ৻ߟߩࠢ࡜

ߣᵹ಴ㆊ⒟ߩ౉ജ୯ߣߥࠆ㧘㒠㔎㊂ߣⲢ㔐㊂ߦߟ޿ࠬ࠲࡯ߦ࠺࡯࠲߇஍ࠅߔ߉ߡߒ߹ߞߚᓇ㗀߇ᄢ߈ߊߡ Fig. 13ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅ 4᦬߆ࠄ 11᦬ߦ߆ߌߡ

޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇ㧘ߎߩ⚿ᨐߩା㗬ᕈߪᄢ߈ߊߥ޿߽

ᵹ㊂߇ᷫዋߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘․ߦ 4 ᦬ 5᦬ߩᷫዋߪ㗼⪺ߢ޽ߩߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ‫੹ޕ‬ᓟ㧘ߎߩࠃ߁ߥ⚿ᨐࠍ㒐ߋߚ߼ߦࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘㒠㔎㊂ߦᄌൻߪߥ޿߇㧘᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅⲢ

ᦝߥࠆࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ൻᚻᴺߩะ਄߇᳞߼ࠄࠇࠆ߽ߩ

㔐㊂ߩࡇ࡯ࠢ߇ᄢ᏷ߦᷫዋߔࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫ޕ‬－ 711 －

㪈㪍㪇

Fig. 14ߦ 1᦬߆ࠄ 4᦬߹ߢߩⓍ㔐ᷓಽᏓߩᄌൻࠍ␜

㪈㪋㪇ߔ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅ㧘Ⓧ㔐ᷓ߇ᷫዋߒߚ਄㧘ᶖ㔐߽ᣧ᦬ᐔဋᵹ㊂㩿㫄㪊㪆㫊㪼㪺㪀㪈㪉㪇ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆ‫ޕ‬㪈㪇㪇㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪
㪉㪇㪺
㪉㪈㪺

㪏㪇
㪍㪇

AMeDAS ᷹ⷰ୯ߣ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ౉ജߒ㧘੖ࡩἑᎹߩਃベ࿾ὐߦ߅޿ߡᓧࠄࠇߚᵹ㊂ߩ⚿㪋㪇ᨐࠍ Fig. 15ߦ␜ߔ‫ ޕ‬6᦬߆ࠄ 9᦬ߦ߆ߌߡᵹ㊂߇ᷫዋ㪉㪇ߔࠆ⚿ᨐߣߥߞߚ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ਃベ࿾ὐߦ߅ߌࠆᦨᄢᵹ㪇㪡㪸㫅㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉㪘㫇㫉 㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅㪡㫌㫃㊂ߩ᦬ᄌൻ㧘ᦨዊᵹ㊂ߩ᦬ᄌൻࠍ Fig. 16ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ዥ㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺೎Ꮉߣห᭽ߦ㧘 20਎♿࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ౉

㪌㪇㪇
㪋㪌㪇

ജߔࠆߣ㧘ታ㓙ࠃࠅᵹ㊂ߩᄌേࠍㆊዊ⹏ଔߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬㪋㪇㪇㫄㫄㪆㫄㫆㫅

㪊㪌㪇㪘㪤㪼㪛㪘㪪㪄㒠㔎㊂㪮㪞㪄Ⲣ㔐㊂㪉㪇㪺㪄㒠㔎㊂㪉㪇㪺㪄Ⲣ㔐㊂㪉㪈㪺㪄㒠㔎㊂㪉㪈㪺㪄Ⲣ㔐㊂

㪊㪇㪇
㪉㪌㪇
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ߐࠄߦ㧘᷷ᥦൻ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ౉ജߔࠆ
ߣ㧘 AMeDAS ᷹ⷰ୯ࠍ౉ജߒߚ⚿ᨐࠃࠅᦨᄢᵹ㊂߇Ⴧടߒ㧘ᦨዊᵹ㊂߽ᷫዋߔࠆߣ޿߁⚿ᨐߦߥߞߚ‫ޕ‬

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 ߅ࠊࠅߦ

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Fig. 13㩷 Comparison of AMeDAS data, discharge,ᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪ㧘CGCM࡮JRA25ߣ AMeDAS࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ㧘snowmelt, and rainfall at Nakoma in the Shiribetu⛔⸘ቇ⊛ᚻᴺߢ޽ࠆࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ᴺߣ Weather

River

Generatorᴺࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖߚ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣᚻᴺ
ࠍ㐿⊒ߒ㧘᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆ᳇⽎ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߩᄌൻࠍᝒ߃㧘ᵹၞࠬࠤ࡯࡞ߢߩ㒠᳓㊂ᄌൻࠍផቯߒ㧘1ᤨ㑆㧘1km♖ᐲߢ᳓ᢥ⻉㊂ߩᄌൻࠍផቯߒߚ‫⚿ߩߘޕ‬ᨐ㧘એਅ
Feb

Jan

Mar

ߩࠃ߁ߥᚑᨐ߇ᓧࠄࠇߚ‫ޕ‬Apr ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ൻᚻᴺߩ৻⒳ߢ޽ࠆ ISODATAᴺࠍᔕ↪ߒ㧘ߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ౉ജ࠺࡯࠲߿ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ⹜
ⴕ㍲⺋⊛ߦㆡ↪㧘ߘߩਛ߆ࠄᦨㆡಽ㘃⚿ᨐࠍㆬ߱

Fig. 14㩷 Snow depth sequence in the Shiribetu River

ߣ޿߁ᣇᴺߦࠃࠅ㧘ฦᵹၞ࡮᦬ߏߣߦᵹၞߩ㒠᳓Basin; Upper AMeDAS, Lower; 21C-downscaling⊒↢⏕₸ߣኻᔕ߇޽ࠆࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍ૞ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ
߈ߚ‫ޕ‬ Weather Generatorᴺࠍᡷ⦟ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ㧘ᵹၞ

᦬ᐔဋᵹ㊂㩿㫄㪊㪆㫊㪼㪺㪀㪎㪇㪍㪇ో૕߿ฦ᷹ⷰὐߩ 1ᤨ㑆㒠᳓㊂ࠍታ㓙ߦㄭ޿ᒻߢ

㪌㪇ౣ⃻ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߚ‫ޕ‬

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 ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦಽ㘃ᴺߣ㧘ᡷ⦟ߐࠇߚ Weather Generatorᴺࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ㧘 CGCM಴ജࠍ♖㪉㪇ᐲࠃߊ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߚ‫ޕ‬㪈㪇 ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝ࡦࠣߐࠇߚ㒠᳓㊂ࠍ Hydro-BEAM㪇㪡㪸㫅㪝㪼㪹 㪤㪸㫉

㪘㫇㫉㪤㪸㫐 㪡㫌㫅

㪡㫌㫃㪘㫌㪾 㪪㪼㫇 㪦㪺㫋 㪥㫆㫍 㪛㪼㪺ߦ౉ജߔࠆߎߣߢ㧘዁᧪ߩ᳓ᢥ⻉㊂ߩផቯ߇ߢ߈
ߚ‫ޕ‬Fig. 15㩷 Comparison of AMeDAS data, discharge,

snowmelt, and rainfall at Miwa in the Gokase River ᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅዥ೎Ꮉᵹၞߢߪ౻ߦ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߔࠆߎߣ߇᣿ࠄ߆ߣߥߞߚ‫ޕ‬਄ⓨߦኙ᳇߇็߈ㄟ߻
ࠃ߁ߥࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߩᷫዋߦࠃࠅ㧘ή㒠㔎ߩ⏕₸߇㜞

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߹ࠆߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ᄢ߈ߥ㒠᳓㊂߽⊒↢ߒ߿

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ߔߊߥࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚ‫ޕ‬౻ቄߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩᷫዋߣ㪍㪋Ⲣ㔐ߩᣧᦼൻߦࠃࠅ㧘ᤐߦᄢ߈ߥᵹ㊂ߩᷫዋ߇⿠

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ߎࠆߣផቯߐࠇߚ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘ᄐߢ߽⫳⊒ᢔ㊂ߩჇട

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᦬ᦨᄢᵹ㊂㩿㫄㪊㪆㫊㪼㪺㪀㪊㪇㪇㪇

Fig. 16㩷 Comparison of Peak and lowest discharge at
Miwa in the Gokase River Basin

ߦࠃࠅᵹ㊂߇ᷫዋߒߚ‫ޕ‬ ੖ࡩἑᎹᵹၞߢߪ 6㧘 7᦬ߦ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߔࠆߎߣ
߇ផቯߐࠇߚ‫ޕ‬ਥߦή㒠᳓ഀวߩ਄᣹ߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇ

－ 712 －

ߚ߽ߩߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬᷷ᥦൻታ㛎಴ജ࠳࠙ࡦࠬࠤ࡯࡝

ዊዥ೑ᴦ࡮᧲ᶏ᣿ብ࡮ᧁౝ㓁৻ (1998) : ࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯

ࡦࠣ⚿ᨐࠍ౉ജߔࠆߣ㧘ᦨዊᵹ㊂ߩᷫዋ㧘ᦨᄢᵹ࡚ࠪࡦࡕ࠺࡞ߢߩᵹၞⅣႺ⹏ଔᚻ㗅ߩ㐿⊒㧘੩ㇺᄢ

㊂ߩჇടߦࠃߞߡ㧘ᵹ㊂ߩᄌേ߇ᄢ߈ߊߥࠆߎߣ

ቇ㒐ἴ⎇ⓥᚲᐕႎ 41B(2)߇ផቯߐࠇߚ‫ޕ‬ዊዥ೑ᴦ࡮T.E.࠙࠾࡯ (1989) : ᳓ᢥ࠺࡯࠲߳ߩࡄ࠲࡯

 Weather Generatorᴺߢߪ㧘⽕㔎ࠍᄙߊ⊒↢ߐߖߡࡦಽ㘃ൻᚻᴺߩㆡ↪ᕈ⹏ଔ㧘᳓ᢥ࡮᳓⾗Ḯቇળ⹹╙ߒ߹߁௑ะ߇޽ࠆ‫ߚ߹ޕ‬㧘⽕㔎ࠍ㒠ࠄߖ߁ࠆࠢ࡜

2Ꮞ 1ภ

ࠬ࠲࡯ߩᄌൻߦߟ޿ߡ߽⇼໧ߩᱷࠆὐ߇޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬㜞ᧁᐙ㓶࡮ਅ↰㓁ਭ⋙ୃ (1991) : ↹௝⸃ᨆࡂࡦ࠼ࡉ

᳓⾗Ḯ▤ℂߦߣߞߡ㧘⽕㔎ߩ⊒↢㗫ᐲ߿㊂ߪ㊀ⷐ࠶ࠢ㧘᧲੩ᄢቇ಴

ߥᖱႎߢ޽ࠅ㧘ߎߩ♖ᐲࠍ㜞߼ߡ޿ߊᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ᤨጟ㆐ᔒ࡮ጊጧᱜ♿࡮૒⮮ାᄦ (1993) : ᳇⽎ߩᢙ୯␠ࠪࡒࡘ࡟࡯࡚ࠪࡦ㧘᧲੩ᄢቇ಴

ෳ⠨ᢥ₂

␠

Kimoto M.(2005) : Simulated change of the east Asian
circulation under global warming scenario, Geophys.

ᦺୖᱜ࡮㑐ญℂ㇢࡮ᣂ↰ዏ (1995) : ᳇⽎ࡂࡦ࠼ࡉ࠶

Res. Lett., 32, L16701, doi:10.1029 / 2005 GL 023383

ࠢ㧘ᦺୖᦠᐫ

Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of theᄢ಴⌀ℂሶ (2006) : ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠆᵹၞ᳓⾗Ḯ߳

Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change(2001):ߩᓇ㗀⹏ଔߦ㑐ߔࠆ⎇ⓥ

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis࿖࿯੤ㅢ⋭ᴡᎹዪ✬㓸 (2004) : ᵹ㊂ᐕ⴫㧔ᐔᚑ 14ᐕ㧕,ᣣᧄᴡᎹදળ

Estimation of Precipitation Variation in River Basin scale due to Global Warming

Takashi KOBAYASHI*, Toshiharu KOJIRI and Toru NOZAWA***Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University**National Institute of Environment Studies
Synopsis
To estimate the precipitation variation in the designated river basin, the pattern classification
method and weather generation algorithm are combined to take the downscale approaches for outputsof CGCM (Coupled Global Circulation Model). The simulated results in the Shiribetu River and theGokase River in Japan, showed the great difference in the special and temporal precipitation
distribution. The hydrological impacts due to global warming in the river basin scale were evaluatedthrough the distributed runoff model with 1km and 1hour unit data.
Keywords: downscaling, global warming, precipitation variation, pattern classification－ 713 －