Market Forecast Report
Semiconductor and FPD Manufacturing Equipment
Released in July 2024
(Fiscal years 2024-2026)

July 4, 2024

Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan

Overview
This report provides trend forecasts for semiconductor and FPD manufacturing equipment. The
comprehensive results included in this forecast report are based on demand forecasts by theSemiconductor Research and Statistics subcommittee and the FPD Research and Statistics
subcommittee of the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (hereinafter called SEAJ,
Chairman: Mr. Toshiki Kawai) as well as market trend research by the 20 companies represented on
the Board of Directors and auditors.
We forecast sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment made in Japan for fiscal 2024 to be
4.25 trillion yen, an increase of 15% from the previous year, based on an expected recovery in memory
investment from the second half of the fiscal year. For fiscal 2025, we forecast sales of 4.68 trillion
yen, an increase of 10%, owing to persistent sound investment in logic/foundries and memory. For
fiscal 2026, we forecast sales of 5.15 trillion yen, an increase of 10%, as the demand boost effect ofAI-related semiconductors becomes apparent.
As for FPD manufacturing equipment, we forecast sales of 335 billion yen in fiscal 2024, anincrease of 30%, owing to launch of Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) investment using
G8.6-class boards in Korea. For fiscal 2025, we forecast sales of 369 billion yen, an increase of 10%,expecting OLED investment using G8.6 boards in China to continue following Korea. For fiscal 2026,
we forecast flat growth to 369 billion yen, the same level as in fiscal 2025.

(1) Forecast period

Three years from fiscal year 2024 to 2026 (FY2024: From April
2024 to March 2025)(2) Forecast items

Sales of Japanese-made semiconductor manufacturing equipment andsales for the Japanese market
Sales of Japanese-made FPD manufacturing equipment(3) Forecast background(Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment)
According to WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), the global semiconductor market in2023 decreased for the first time in four years, down by 8.2% from the previous year, reflecting thedecline in memory prices. In 2024, the memory market is expected to rise in both unit price andvolume, and the logic market is also expected to recover. In June, WSTS announced that overall sales
for 2024 will increase by 16.0% to 611 billion US dollars, a new record high. In 2025, the market isexpected to continue to grow at a high rate, with a forecasted increase of 12.5%.
The performance of memory companies has been following a recovery trend for four consecutive
quarters after bottoming out in the first quarter (January-March) of 2023. Although there has been nosignificant change in PC and smartphone sales, there have been improvements in the supply-demandbalance as wafer production cutbacks are coming to an end. As for servers, there has been robustii

demand for GPUs for AI servers, while demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is usedin combination with GPUs, continues to surge.
Going forward, the move towards incorporating AI functions into PCs and smartphones on-device(edge/local) as well as servers will gain speed. In addition to conventional CPUs and GPUs, AI PCs
will feature NPUs (Neural Processing Units) as standard equipment to optimize advanced AI
processing while reducing the load on CPUs and GPUs, driven by low power consumption.
Smartphones also attracted tremendous attention in June when one of the largest companies announced
a complete revamp of their AI functions.
In order to mount an NPU among CPU and GPU at the same time, it is necessary to either increase
the relative integration or increase the die area. The announced AI-enabled PC minimum requirements
specify "16 GB or more" for DRAM and "256 GB or more" for SSD, to operate smoothly including
videos, which is of a higher capacity than the current non-AI-enabled PCs. The impact of on-device AI
on the semiconductor market is expected to be positive for both logic and memory. Furthermore, theend of Windows10 support in October 2025 will also trigger a replacement trend in the enterprise PCsector.
As for AI servers, a variety of semiconductors optimized for AI functions are expected to appear in
the future. Demand for GPUs for AI servers, which is currently concentrated among certain companies,
is expected to gradually expand to include a wider range of options. Data center investment is also
estimated to move toward renewal investment, not only for AI applications, but also forgeneral-purpose servers henceforth.
In terms of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the U.S. tightened restrictions on China in
October 2022, and stricter export controls began in Japan in July 2023 and in the Netherlands in
September 2023. As a result, investment has shifted to areas not subject to these restrictions, anddemand for equipment from China has increased to date and is still solid. In fiscal 2024, we expect theratio of equipment shipped to China to decline relatively as investment increases in countries andregions other than China.
In fiscal year 2024, logic foundry and DRAM investment recovery is expected. NAND flash will
also see a significant recovery in 2025, on top of government support in various countries, which will
underpin investment. Permeation and application of AI technology will not be limited to the current
GPUs and HBMs for AI servers but will also stimulate demand for on-device AI PCs andsemiconductors for AI smartphone by 2026, and will have an extensive ripple effect in encouraging
the replacement with refurbished devices. In addition, growth is anticipated, supported by thedevelopment of various applications such as AR/VR/Digital Twin and the shift to electricvehicles/automated driving.
The global semiconductor market, which is poised for a decade of growth and is projected on track
to reach 1 trillion US dollars by 2030 from 527 billion US dollars in 2023, and likewise, a highiii

medium-term growth rate is expected for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
(FPD Manufacturing Equipment)
As far as the business environment surrounding FPD manufacturing equipment is concerned,
although earnings of panel companies saw improvement from the third to the fourth quarter of 2023,
profit margins generally deteriorated in the first quarter of 2024. In particular, two Taiwanesecompanies posted losses for the eighth consecutive quarter, and one Korean company run into the red
immediately after returning to the black in the previous quarter.
Capital investment for the calendar year 2023 fell to a level half that of the same period last year.
Sales of FPD manufacturing equipment made in Japan in fiscal 2023 fell 39.8%, much lower than the25.0% decline forecast in January. Generally, sales tend to surge toward the end of the fiscal year inMarch, however, this was not the case last year, as sales remained flat.
From FY2024, investment in G8.6 boards for OLEDs will be in full swing in Korea. The use ofOLED panels in IT products including tablets (11 and 13-inch) and PCs (14.2 and 16.2-inch) willmaterialize, and in fiscal 2025, investment in OLED for G8.6 boards will also commence in China.
Compared to smartphones (6.1 and 6.7-inch), the panel size area per unit is 6 to 7 times larger,
therefore manufacturing panels on G8.6 boards, with high production efficiency, will become essential
while the number of units increases.
Previously, two companies that hold the world's largest and second largest market share ofsmartphones made a switch from LCD to OLED for high-end products in one fell swoop, resulting in
the construction of many G6 OLED factories in Korea and China. Although it remains vague whether
the same will happen with IT panels, nevertheless, G8.6 boards for OLED panels in IT use will be thebiggest factor in the recovery and new growth of the FPD equipment market in fiscal 2024 andbeyond.

(4) Forecast results【Sales forecasts for semiconductor/FPD manufacturing equipment made in Japan】
For fiscal 2024, we forecast overall sales of 4.59 trillion yen, an overall 16% increase, assumingthat semiconductor manufacturing equipment will increase by 15%, and sales of FPD
manufacturing equipment will increase by 30%. For fiscal 2025, both semiconductors and FPDs areexpected to ramp up by 10% respectively, as we forecast overall sales of 5.05 trillion yen, an overall
increase of 10%. For fiscal 2026, we forecast a 10% increase in semiconductor manufacturing
equipment and +/-0% growth in FPD manufacturing equipment, for an overall sales of 5.51 trillion
yen, an overall increase of 9.3%.

【Sales forecasts for semiconductor manufacturing equipment made in Japan】
iv

For fiscal 2024, DRAM investment is expected to make a full-fledged comeback at the same timethat upward trend in the capacity utilization rate catches up with the ongoing memory price hikes.
Although investment in China will remain strong, the ratio will tend to fall slightly as investment inother regions expands. As a result, we forecast overall sales of 4.25 trillion yen, an increase of 15%.
It marks the first time that the figure has exceeded 4 trillion yen.
For fiscal 2025, we forecast a 10% increase to 4.68 trillion yen owing to a recovery in investment
in NAND flash and solid investment in logic foundries. Since steady growth is expected to continue
in fiscal 2026, we forecast a 10% increase to 5.15 trillion yen. In consideration of the foregoing,
overall sales will reach 5 trillion yen in two years from 4 trillion yen.

【Sales forecasts for semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the Japanese market】
For fiscal 2024, we forecast a 17% increase from the previous year to 1.34 trillion yen, aided by arecovery in the memory market, in addition to the effect of government subsidies, and a steadystart-up by major foundries. In 2025, we forecast a 30% increase to 1.74 trillion yen due to thecombination of several major foundry investments and a significant recovery that is expected inmemory investment. In 2026, we forecast a 7% increase to 1.86 trillion yen, as investment isexpected to remain strong.

【Sales forecasts for FPD manufacturing equipment made in Japan】
For fiscal 2024, we forecast a 30% increase to 335 billion yen, partly in reaction to the fact that
OLED investment using G8.6 boards in fiscal 2023 was not recorded in sales by March, but rather
was recorded after April of fiscal 2024. For fiscal 2025, we forecast a 10% increase to 369 billion
yen as OLED investment in G8.6 boards goes into full swing. For fiscal 2026, investment inG8.6-class OLEDs in Korea and China is expected to begin in full-scale at the same time, however,the forecast remains at 369 billion yen (+/-0%) due to some undetermined aspects of the technology
and the period of the investment.

v

July 2024 Forecast for Semiconductor and FPD Manufacturing Equipment■１．Semiconductor and FPD Manufacturing Equipment【Forecast for Japanese Equipment Billing】* "Japanese Equipment Billing " = Japanese manufacturers Domestic and Oversea Billing.
Billings(100 million Yen)

Growth Rate(%)

60,00040Forecast

Actual

55,00020

50,000045,000-20

40,000-40

35,000-60

30,000年度-80

25,000-100

20,000-120

15,000-140

10,000

-160

5,000

-180020142015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Semiconductor

2020

2021

FPD

2022

2023

2024

2025

Growth Rate

2026
(Fiscal Year)-200（CAGR：2023-2026）
ActualForecast

Fiscal Year

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Semiconductor

12,921

13,08915,642

20,43622,47920,73023,83534,43039,27536,97642,522

46,77451,452

FPD

2,717

2,993

4,857

4,916

5,364

4,758

4,638

4,809

4,282

2,577

3,351

3,686

3,686

Total (100 million yen)

15,63816,082

20,49925,352

27,84325,48828,47339,23943,55639,55345,873

50,46055,138

-9.2

16.0

10.0

9.3

Growth Rate
5.9
2.8
27.5
23.7
9.8
-8.5
11.7
37.8
11.0(%)* Publication, duplication or assistance of such activities of this report without permission by SEAJ is prohibited.
* FPD statistics participating companies have changed since FY2019.
* The names and amounts of the companies participating in the statistics are not disclosed.

P.1

CAGR

11.7%

July 2024 Forecast for Semiconductor and FPD Manufacturing Equipment■２． Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment【Forecast for Japanese Equipment Billing】* "Japanese Equipment Billing " = Japanese manufacturers Domestic and Oversea Billing.
Billings(100 million Yen)
60,000Growth Rate（％）

Actual

55,00060

Forecast

40

50,00020

45,000040,000-20

35,000-40

30,000-60

25,000-80

20,000-100

15,000-120

10,000

-140

5,000

-160

0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Semiconductor

2022

2023

2024

2025

-180

2026

(Fiscal Year)

Growth Rate

（CAGR：2023-2026）

ActualFiscal Year

Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total (100 million yen)

12,921

13,08915,642

20,43622,47920,73023,83534,43039,27536,97642,522

46,77451,452Growth Rate (%)

14.6

1.3

19.5

30.6

10.0

-7.8

15.0

44.4

14.1

-5.9

15.0

10.0

10.0

CAGR

11.6%

【Forecast for Japanese Market Billing】* "Japanese Market Billing" = Domestic Billing of Japanese and Foreign manufacturers.
Billings(100 Million Yen)
20,000Growth Rate（％）
60

Forecast

Actual

18,00040

16,00020

14,0000

12,000-20

10,000

-40

8,000

-60

6,000

-80

4,000

-100

2,000-1200

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
2020
Semiconductor

2021
2022
GrowthRate

2023

2024

2025-1402026(Fiscal Year）（CAGR：2023-2026）

ActualFiscal YearForecast

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total (100 million yen)

5,000

6,562

5,047

8,138

9,878

6,961

8,009

9,103

11,412

11,432

13,375

17,38818,605Growth Rate (%)

36.9

31.2

-23.1

61.3

21.4

-29.5

15.1

13.7

25.4

0.2

17.0

30.0

7.0

* Publication, duplication or assistance of such activities of this report without permission by SEAJ is prohibited.

P.2

CAGR

17.6%

July 2024 Forecast for Semiconductor and FPD Manufacturing Equipment■３．FPD Manufacturing Equipment【Forecast for Japanese Equipment Billing】* "Japanese Equipment Billing " = Japanese manufacturers Domestic and Oversea Billing.
Billing (100 million ¥)Growh Rate（％）

10,00080

Forecast

Actual

9,000

60

8,000

40

7,000

20

6,000

0

5,000

-20

4,000

-40

3,000

-60

2,000

-80

1,000
0-100

22,479
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

FPD

2019

2020
2021
Growth Rate

2022

2023

2024

2025

-120

2026

(Fiscal Year）（CAGR：2023-2026）

ActualFiscal Year

Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total (100 million yen)

2,717

2,993

4,857

4,916

5,364

4,758

4,6384,809

4,282

2,577

3,351

3,686

3,686

Growth Rate (%)

-22.0

10.2

62.3

1.2

9.1

-11.3

-2.5

3.7

-11.0

-39.8

30.0

10.0

0.0

* Publication, duplication or assistance of such activities of this report without permission by SEAJ is prohibited.
* FPD statistics participating companies have changed since FY2019.
* The names and amounts of the companies participating in the statistics are not disclosed.

P.3

CAGR

12.7%