ICEF2023 CS3: Innovative Use of Renewables

Towards Sustainable Deployment of Renewable Energies
for Carbon Neutrality
Oct. 5, 2023

Shigeru Niki
Sustainable Energy Unit,
Technology Strategy Center (TSC) ,New Energy and Industrial Technology Development
Organization (NEDO)

Extended Role of Renewable Energies
Technology Strategy Center◼ The climate change has been recognized globally as an urgent issue to be solved.
◼ CO2 emission in electricity occupies 40% of total CO2 emission.
◼ Renewable energy is one of the most effective technologies to reduce CO2 emission.
◼ Demonstration of net-zero electricity is mandatory to realize the 2050 carbon neutrality.
◼ PV and wind have large potentials to reduce CO2 emissions and expected to play central roles in thefuture global energy.
Energy Mix in Electricity at 2050

others

71,164TWh

Industry

34 G-ton（2014）（TWh）electricity

54,716TkWh

57,950TWh
Solar PV

46,703TWh

Wind

House、 Agriculture、
others 10%
HydroGeothermal
The other renewable

CoalTransportation

Source : Compiled by NEDO TSC based on
IEA ETP2017、Global Renewables Outlook 2020（IRENA）

Natural Gas
OilNuclear

Hydrogen & Ammonia
Fossil fuels w/CCS

Source : Compiled by NEDO TSC based on IEA World Energy Outlook 2021

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World Cumulative PV Installation
Technology Strategy Center◼ Cumulative PV installation exceeded 900GW and annual PV installation reached 175GW in 2021, PV
becoming one of the primary energies.
◼ PV reached a big milestone of 1TW in 2022 entering “Terawatt Era”.
◼ PV became the cheapest form of electricity in some regions.

Cumulative Installed PV Capacity (W DC)

1000

Annual Installed Capacity in 2021 (GWDC)

900
800

Rest of World, 32.6700

China, 54.9

Korea, 4.2
Australia, 4.6600

175GWDC

Brazil, 5.5

500Japan, 6.5India, 13400

China
EUUSAJapan
India
Australia
Korea
Rest of World

USA, 26.9
EU, 26.8

300
200
1000
2005

2007

20092011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021
Preliminary

Reference：Compiled by NEDO TSC based on IEA PVPS “Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2021”, ”Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2022”

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New PV Applications
Technology Strategy Center◼ The penetration of new PV applications in addition to mega solar and rooftops is expected.
◼ New applications such as side wall of the buildings, on water, in farmland and on mobility
can accelerate the penetration of PV systems further.
◼ These applications need additional specifications such as very high-efficiency (η>30%),
light-weight, flexible, high quality design, long-term stability under special environment, etc.

＜Floating＞ reference：Yamakura dam （Kyocera）＜Farmland＞ 出典：営農型発電設備の現状について（農林水産省,2018）＜HAPS＞（High Altitude Platform Station PseudoSatellite）
https://www.softbank.jp/corp/news/press/sbkk/2019/20190425_02/＜Side wall＞

reference：https://www.taisei.co.jp/about_us/wn/2014/140616_3948.html（大成建設HP）＜Car＞

Reference:：https://global.toyota/jp/newsroom/corporate/28781301.html?_ga=2.7594312
3.774819704.1599699649-2016341029.1598338298（トヨタHP）

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Emerging Technology: Perovskite Solar Cells
Technology Strategy Center◼ The R&D of perovskite solar cells started at 2009, and the efficiency increased rapidly up to 26.1%◼ Low-cost processes such as printing technology can be used for mass production.
◼ Japan, EU, US, China and Korea have been investing a lot for the R&D of perovskite technologies.
◼ Module technology, long-term stability and replacement of Pb are the most important tasks for thecommercialization.
Crystal structure of perovskite

APerovskite/Si Tandem
33.7%（KAUST）

BX
ABX3
A = CH3NH3+, HC(NH2)2+ , Cs +, Rb +,K+
B = Pb2+, Sn2+
X = I-, Br-, ClComposition of perovskite solar cells

Perovskite cell
26.1% （USTC）

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies（NREL） as of 7/10/2023

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Development of Next-Generation Solar Cells(Overview of Green Innovation Fund Project)
Technology Strategy Center⚫ In order to expand the installation of solar power, it is necessary to develop next-generation solarcells (perovskite solar cells) that can be installed such as walls.
⚫ Japan is in the top group in the development of perovskite solar cells (recording the world's
highest conversion efficiency). Europe, US and China are also accelerating development.
⚫ Aiming for market launch by FY2030, the project will develop basic technologies as well aspractical application and demonstrations.
〈Image of solar cells development phase〉
Laboratory level R&D

Upsizing, etc. forcommercialization

Demonstration incollaboration with users

Test cell

Practical size sample

Wall installation example

University of Tokyo

ToshibaTaisei Corporation

R&D target: Achieve a power generation cost of 14 yen(about 10 cent)/kWh orless under certain conditions (sunshine conditions, etc.) by FY2030

Reference: New Energy Technology Division (NEDO)

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Emerging Technology: Next-Generation Tandem Cells
Technology Strategy Center◼ Certain applications need high efficiencies beyond the theoretical limit of single-junction solar cells.
◼ For the bottom cell, c-Si and CIGS solar cells can be used with optimization.
◼ Requirements for the top cell: high efficiency over 20%､long-term stability over 20 years(equivalent to that of bottom cell) with low-cost process.
◼ Currently, no established top cell technology exists.
top celljunction

bottom cell

Solar Spectrum

top cellbottom cell
Wavelength

Top cell candidates
III-Vadvantage・over 40% efficiency demonstrated
・proven long-term stability

To be solved・high production cost

Perovskite
advantage・over 25% efficiency reported
・low production cost

To be solved
・long-term stability
・alternate materials for Pb

Chalcogenides
advantage・over 23% efficiency achieved
・low-cost process
・proven long-term stability

To be solved・high-efficiency at Eg=1.6-1.8eV・ alternate materials7Current Status and Outlook of Wind Power Generation
Technology Strategy Center◼ World cumulative installation of wind power reached 778GW including 35GW of offshore windpower in 2020.
◼ IRENA estimated the expansion of wind power installation up to 5,044GW (onshore) and1,000GW (offshore) in 2050.
7,000
OnshoreOnshore: 5044GW

Offshore

Offshore: 1000GW

Installed Capacity（GW）

6,000
Achievements

5,000

Forecasts

Growth Rate (2021-2050)
Onshore: 6.7%

4,000

Offshore: 10.5%

Onshore: 769GW

3,000

Offshore: 56GW

2,000
1,00002000

Total Installed Wind Power System by 2020Source : Compiled by NEDO TSC based on
IEA Wind TCP Annual report 202020102020

2030

2040

2050

Cumulative Wind Power Installation
Source : Summarized by NEDO TSC fromIRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2022
and Future of Wind (2019)8

Technology Strategy and Future Goals
Technology Strategy Center◼ Wind power gains competitiveness as a main power supply, and contributes significantly
to the carbon neutrality by 2050.
◼ Five key issues as shown below have to be established in order to make the wind power
reliable and sustainable for a long time.
Cost-Competitive Floating
Offshore WindFutureGoals

・Upsizing of the wind turbine
・Extended areas for installing floating wind

Further Penetration of FixedBottom Offshore Wind

・Upscaling of the wind farms
・Establishment of multi-terminal interconnections

Repowering of Onshore Wind
Improved Social Acceptance・Improvement in social acceptance・Use as incubation sites

Circular Economy in Wind Power・Reduction of material usage and recycling
・Extended lifetime of facilities

Extended Usage of Wind Power・Sector coupling with hydrogen, etc.

9Importance of Offshore Wind Power in Japan
Technology Strategy Center◼ The offshore wind power has a lot of potential in Japan.
◼ The floating type offshore wind is very important in Japan, and is still under development andcompetition worldwide.
◼ The Green Innovation Fund Project will develop the offshore wind power technologies suitable forweather and sea conditions of Asia, and it aims for the development of the cost competitive
integrated design of floating offshore wind including wind turbines, floating bodies, cables, etc.
Phase 1:Technology development

3 projects

1 project

2 projects

Development issues:• Low-cost steel alternative materials• Wind turbine which responds to the naturalenvironment of Asia
• Improved durability of mooring cables• Failure prediction using AI and big data

Phase 2: Demonstration

R&D target: A level at which power
generation costs of Bottom-mounted
type can be forecast at 8 to 9 yen/kWh
under certain conditions by 2030

Japan’s potential(sea area)

Development issues:• Design and cost reduction of the entire
system integrating wind turbine, floating
body, and cables.

98,000km2
Floating

Floating

Water depth : 50-100m
Approx.42,000km2

Water depth : 100-200m
Approx.56,000km2※1 The sea area is estimated based on the offshore distance of less than 30km, excluding social constraints,
and an annual average wind speed of 7m/s or higher.
※2 The position shown in the figure for the floating type is not the applicable range or the optimal water depth.

10Extension of Lifetime, Reduction of O&M Cost: Erosion of Wind Turbine Blades• Leading-edge erosion takes place on the surface of high-speed rotating blades by hydrometeor
impact.
• Substantial impact on cost of energy and unpredictability of business risks especially for large
offshore turbine in the Asian Monsoon region.
• Countermeasures including leading-edge protection devices, inspection and maintenance methods,
and new turbine control are under development.
• International collaborative R&D framework has been formed in IEA Wind TCP Task46 to better
understand the key technical challenges in the blade erosion.
Eroded leading edge

Devices for erosion protection

Task46 work packages

Global annual precipitation
https://www.fujikuracomposites.jp/satellite/denzai/
products/bladeprotectivesheet/ブレード保護シート.pdf

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/monitor/climfig/?tm=monthly&el=TanmMIn

https://www.asahi-rubber.co.jp/products/products-forwindmill-blades/index.html

Task46 participants

Reference: Dr. M. Tanaka (AIST, FREA)
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Extension of Lifetime, Reduction of O&M Cost: Severe lightning strikes
・The lightning strike is one of the major causes of wind turbine failure, and the countermeasures are especially important in Japan and Southeast Asian countries.
・The lightning failure leads to additional costs such as repair and protection, inspection andmonitoring, etc.
・Robust diverter strips which are effective for lightning protection have been developed
under NEDO projects.
Blade failure by lightning Global distribution of winter lightning<https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/sankoshin/hoan_shohi/
denryoku_anzen/newenergy_hatsuden_wg/pdf/024_03_0
0.pdf>

https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2015302/nhess-2015-302.pdf

Diverter strips applied in a field

https://www.nedo.go.jp/content/100964528.pdf

Reference: Dr. M. Tanaka (AIST, FREA)
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Emerging Technologies: Hydrogen Production Using Wind PowerTechnology Strategy Center◼ We face the issues of synchronization between generation and consumption when we use
variable renewables .
◼ Green hydrogen is one of the solutions not only avoiding the grid bottlenecks but also
decarbonizing industrial sectors by replacing the fossil fuel.
◼ Some projects have been demonstrated in Europe, for example the AquaVentus project onthe North Sea. Also in Japan, hydrogen production through water electrolysis using
renewables have been investigated under another Green Innovation Fund Project.
AquaVentus project on the North Sea
One million tons of green hydrogen per year, produced from windenergy on the North Sea and transported on land by pipeline that is the vision of AquaVentus.
More than 100 companies, organizations and research institutes
along the entire value chain collaborating as broad-based projectfamily in realizing 10GW of generation capacity by 2035.

Hydrogen production through water electrolysis using power fromrenewables project in Japan

Source: https://aquaventus.org/en/

R&D takes place on technology for efficient system operation methods to replacefossil fuels and raw materials with hydrogen in industrial processes that use
water electrolysers, and so on.
13High Expectations to Photovoltaics and Wind Power for Carbon Neutrality
Technology Strategy Center◼ Photovoltaics and wind power are expected to play a central role for achieving the carbon
neutrality by 2050.
◼ IEA NZE scenario indicated 15TW of PV and 8TW of wind power deployment by 2050.
◼ Risks in material supply and mass disposal of equipments and facilities from renewables will
become critical issues to be solved for further penetration of renewables.
◼ Sustainability throughout the whole
lifecycle has to be achieved when we
make renewables as reliable energy
sources well into the future.
◼ Storage, demand response,
digitalization, infrastructures, etc. arealso key issues to be addressed forfurther penetration of variable
renewable energies.

Outloook of the installation of PV and wind by 2050

Maximum energy withminimum resources!!
reference：IEA Net Zero by 2050

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Acknowledgments
Technology Strategy Center◼ I would like to thank to the contribution from members of sustainableenergy unit, NEDO-TSC especially Mr. Y. Matsuda and Dr. M. Okada.
◼ I also would like to thank to Dr. T. Sugaya (AIST), Dr. M. Chikamatsu(AIST), Dr. Y. Shoji (AIST) and Dr. M. Tanaka (AIST) for supplying valuable
information.

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ご清聴ありがとうございました。
Thank you for your attention!!