February
2024
Newsletter

JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS(Cover photo) The garden of the MOF building piled with snow in February

Ministry of Finance, JapanJGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Greetings from the IR office, the Ministry of Finance, Japan.
As you may know, Japan embraces the four seasons and we are enjoying the winterseason as we prepare this draft. February is the coldest month, but here in Tokyo it rarely
snows. On February 5, the first snow of the season fell and settled in Tokyo, as you cansee in the cover photo. It was quite a challenge for people who were not used to walking
on the frozen and slippery roads. Many people worked from home on that day to avoid
being stuck at the Ministry of Finance due to transportation suspensions.
For this newsletter, we pick up several events relevant to JGB investors. First, we arepleased to inform you about the auction result of the inaugural issuance of Japan Climate
Transition Bonds and CBI certification of Japan Climate Transition Bonds for FY2023.
Secondly, the MOF announced an update on central government debt as of the end of
December 2023. Finally, we conducted IR activities for the newly issued Climate Transition
Bonds in Europe, the USA, and Japan.

Table of contents
What’s New:
Auction Result of the Inaugural Issuance of Japan Climate Transition Bonds

p. 2

CBI Certification of Japan Climate Transition Bonds for FY2023

p. 2

Central Government Debt (As of the end of December 2023)

p. 3

Monthly Topic:
BOJ’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2024)

p. 4

IR Office:
GX IR activities in Europe, the USA and Japan

p. 5

Statistics
JGB Primary Market: Auction Results

p. 7

JGB Primary Market: Auction Calendar

p. 8

Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back

p. 9

JGB Secondary Market

p. 10

Investor Trends and JGB Outstandingp. 12

Economic and Financial Trends

p. 16

Information

p. 17

1

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

What’s New 1: Auction Result of the Inaugural Issuance of Japan Climate Transition Bonds
We are delighted to announce that we issued the first Japan Climate Transition Bonds, which areworth roughly 800 billion yen in 10-year bonds. Please see the details below. Another almost 800
billion yen in 5 year-bonds will be auctioned on Feb 27, JST.

Auction Date

Type of
Security

Issue
NumberMaturity
Date

NominalCouponAmounts ofCompetitive
Bids(billion yen)

2/14/2024

10-Year
ClimateTransition1

12/20/2033

0.7%

2,321.2

Amounts ofBids
Accepted(billion yen)

Yield
at theLowestAccepted
Price

799.5

0.740%

What’s New 2: CBI Certification of Japan Climate Transition Bonds for FY2023
The first tranche of the roughly 1.6 trillion yen Japan Climate Transition Bonds* mentioned above
are certified under the Climate Bonds Standard by Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), offering investors
assurance on the environmental objectives of the use of proceeds, and signifying alignment withthe best practice global standards.
*5 & 10-year Japan Climate Transition Bonds (1st)CBI Press Release

CBI Certification

CBI Certification
2

CBI Press Release

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

What’s New 3: Central Government Debt (As of the end of December 2023)
On February 9, the MOF released an update on central government debt. Outstanding debt and its
composition as of the end December 2023 are as follows:

Main Points


Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased to 1,286.5 trillion yen from the endof September (1,275.6 trillion yen) by 10.8 trillion yen. The total amount for General Bonds;
and Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds and Others, increased by 16.4 trillion yen and 2.8 trillion yen
respectively, while FILP Bonds and FBs decreased by 1.3 trillion yen and 7.0 trillion yen
respectively.

Long-term outstanding central government debt, which does not include FILP Bonds, FBs orsome of the borrowings related to local governments, increased to 1,070.1 trillion yen from theend of September (1,053.9 trillion yen), which was the highest amount ever.

Central Government Debt
(trillion yen)

1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings

The end of December 2023
(Actual)General Bonds
Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds)
Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc.
Financing Bills (FBs)

Total
2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts
Government-Guaranteed Debts
Notes: 1.

Increase or Decrease (-) from theend of the Previous Quarter

1,043.8
93.3
57.1
92.3
1,286.5

16.4
- 1.3
2.8
- 7.0
10.8

29.1

- 0.5

Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.

2.

"Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" include government bonds held by and borrowings within the government.

3.

Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA.

4.

The data as of the end of March 2024 will be released on May 10, 2024.

Reference Long-term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments
The MOF has announced the “Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments” whose interest payments
and redemption funds are mainly to be covered by tax revenues, from the viewpoint of transparency of fiscal
management. The statistics are derived by adding the long-term debt outstanding of local governments to the abovementioned Central Government Debt, while excluding Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds and Financing Bills.
(trillion yen)

The end of
December 2023
(Actual)①②③④

General Bonds
Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds)
Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. (Note 1)
Financing Bills (FBs)
Long-term debt outstanding of central government

The end of
FY2023(Estimate)

1,043.8

1,076

Not included

Not included

26.3

26 (Note1)

Not included

Not included

1,070.1

1,102⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments(Note 2)

183

Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments(Note 2)

1,285

Note 1: The borrowings of the Special Account for Allotment of Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax (as of the end of FY2023: approx. 29 trillion
yen) are included in “⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments” because the burden of redemption funds falls on local governments.
Note 2: The actual figure of “⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments” is blank, because quarterly data has not been created.
Details: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/gbb/e202312.html

3JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Monthly Topic: BOJ’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2024)
The BOJ released the quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) on
January 23, 2024.
The BOJ decided the text of the Outlook Report at the Monetary Policy Meetings held on January
22 and 23, 2024. The Outlook Report presents the BOJ’s outlook for developments in economic
activity and prices, assesses upside and downside risks, and outlines its views on the future
course of monetary policy. Here is the summary of the BOJ’s views:

Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being,
supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it isexpected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace ofrecovery in overseas economies. Thereafter, as a virtuous cycle from income tospending gradually intensifies, Japan's economy is projected to continue growing at apace above its potential growth rate.
 The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less freshfood) is likely to be above 2 percent through fiscal 2024, due to factors such as theeffects, albeit waning, of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by thepast rise in import prices and a waning of the effects of the government's economic
measures pushing down CPI inflation of the previous year. As for fiscal 2025, the rate ofincrease is projected to decelerate owing to dissipation of these factors. Meanwhile,
toward the end of the projection period, underlying CPI inflation is likely to increase
gradually toward achieving the price stability target, as the output gap turns positive andas medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise. The likelihood ofrealizing this outlook has continued to gradually rise, although there remain highuncertainties over future developments.
 Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic
Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate is somewhat
lower for fiscal 2023 and somewhat higher for fiscal 2024. The projected year-on-year
rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2024 is lower, mainly due
to the effects of the recent decline in crude oil prices.
 Concerning risks to the outlook, there are extremely high uncertainties surrounding
Japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic
activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms' wage- andprice-setting behavior. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to pay due attention
to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s
economic activity and prices.
 With regard to the risk balance, risks to both economic activity and prices are generally
balanced. In terms of prices, it should be noted that, mainly due to the experience of
prolonged low growth and deflation, the behavior and mindset based on the assumptionthat wages and prices will not increase easily have taken hold in society. Considering
this, it is important to closely monitor whether a virtuous cycle between wages andprices will intensify.

For more information, please see: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/index.htm/
4

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

IR Office

1. GX IR activities in Europe and the USA
In preparation for the first auctions of the Japan Climate Transition Bonds in
February, we committed ourselves to IR activities both globally and domestically.
In regards to this time's overseas IR roadshow, our team members consisted ofpeople from different organizations including: Mr. Yano, Deputy Director; Mr.
Kobayashi, Staff Member; and Mr. Yamada, Researcher from the Debt
Management Policy Division, Ministry of Finance (MOF). As well as Ms. Nemoto,
Assistant Director, GX Finance Promotion Office from the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry (METI). Additionally, from the second party opinion provider
side, Ms. Kajiwara, Managing Executive Officer, Head of Sustainable FinanceEvaluation Group from JCR, and Mr. Kanedome, Principal (Technical Expert) of
Sustainability Service Department from DNV, joined our team.
We had meetings with staff members in chargeof ESG strategies at institutional investors suchas commercial banks, asset managers, pension
funds, etc., in Europe (London, Paris andFrankfurt) from January 15 to 19, and in the
USA (Boston, New York, Los Angeles and San
Francisco) from January 29 to February 2.
These meetings were arranged by BNP Paribas
Securities (Japan) Limited and Citigroup Global
Markets Japan Inc., who are members of the
GX Bonds Marketing Supporters*.
*In order to prepare for the issuance of Japan Climate Transition Bonds, we selected
7 investment banks with the expertise in the ESG Bonds market to support marketing
efforts including IR arrangements at the international and domestic levels.

Frankfurt in January

The Citi San Francisco office in February

We explained Japan’s goals and strategies toachieve its international commitments to carbon
neutrality by 2050 and to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by 46% by 2030, while ensuring astable energy supply. Also, we discussed thecontents of Japan Climate Transition Bond
Framework released in November 2023 and theuse of proceeds from the initial tranche of Japan
Climate Transition Bonds. The framework sets theuse of proceeds, which explains how thegovernment utilizes the funds being raised by
Japan Climate Transition bonds in order toachieve its transition towards decarbonization.

5

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

IR OfficeThroughout the entirety of the meetings, we found that many investors havehigh interest and expectations about the GX Promotion Strategy and Japan
Climate Transition Bonds as practical approaches to decarbonization,
particularly given Japan’s climate conditions and geographical constraints. In
both Europe and the USA, we received plenty of comments and advice
regarding the outlook and progress of projects stipulated in the framework, their
expected CO2 reduction effects and reporting methodologies to be provided
after the Bond’s issuance.
Lastly, we would like to thank all the investors we met during this time. We had
fruitful discussions and were glad to receive valuable opinions on ESG related
investments. We would also like to continue meticulous discussions with global
investors to enhance their understanding of Japan Climate Transition Bonds.

2. GX IR activities in Japan
After the announcement of the framework, to address the first issuance of Japan
Climate Transition Bonds in February, we have actively engaged in IR activities
toward domestic investors, especially in financial institutions, as well for the
purpose of accelerating trends in Japan’s GX policy beyond Japan Climate
Transition Bonds toward the whole of Japan.
For example, we hosted online seminars three times for domestic institutional
investors all over Japan invited by the GX Bonds Marketing Supporters.* Also, we
held seminars for local financial institutions conducted in hybrid formats to
exchange opinions with them in collaboration with Kanto, Tokai, and Chugoku
Financial Bureau local branches of the MOF. We hope our seminars were
informative and made it easier to understand Japan Climate Transition Bonds aswell as Japan’s GX policy. We will keep moving forward.
*The GX Bonds Marketing Supporters specializing in domestic IR Activities are Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley
Securities Co., Ltd., Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd., Nomura Securities Co., Ltd., and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.

The GX Bonds Seminar for domestic local investors at the Kanto Local Finance Bureau office in December

6

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

JGB Primary Market: Auction Results
Bonds(Until 31 January 2024)

Auction Date Type of Security

Issue
NumberMaturity Date

NominalCouponAmounts of Amounts ofCompetitive
Bids
Bids
Accepted(billion yen) (billion yen)

Yield
at theLowestAccepted
Price

Yield at the
AveragePrice

Amounts
Amounts of Amounts ofof NonBids
Bids
Competitive Accepted
AcceptedBids
at theat theTendered
Non-priceNon-price/Accepted competitive competitive(billionAuction Ⅰ
Auction Ⅱ
yen)(billion yen) (billion yen)

11/2/2023

10-year372

9/20/2033

0.8%

7,889.4

2,178.4

0.915%

0.910%

1.528

519.3

0.0

11/7/2023

10-year InflationIndexed Bonds

28

3/10/2033

0.005%

682.1

249.9

-0.480%

-

-

-

-

11/9/2023

30-year80

9/20/2053

1.8%

2,619.3

726.7

1.751%

1.741%

-

172.8

86.4

11/14/2023

5-year163

9/20/2028

0.4%

8,448.8

2,028.2

0.421%

0.418%

1.050

470.3

247.8

11/21/2023

20-year186

9/20/2043

1.5%

3,430.9969.2

1.432%

1.423%

-

230.2

115.4

11/28/2023

40-year16

3/20/2063

1.3%

1,544.4

699.6

1.810%

-

-

-

0.0

11/30/2023

2-year455

12/1/2025

0.005%

6,872.7

2,361.2

0.052%

0.046%

0.000

538.2

0.0

12/5/2023

10-year372

9/20/2033

0.8%6,183.9

2,190.90.707%

0.697%

1.585

507.3

226.1

12/7/2023

30-year80

9/20/2053

1.8%

1,912.6

731.1

1.681%

1.623%

-

168.8

0.0

12/12/2023

5-year163

9/20/2028

0.4%

7,832.8

2,034.1

0.331%

0.325%

1.082

464.6

192.8

12/14/2023

20-year186

9/20/2043

1.5%

2,519.8975.2

1.467%

1.414%

-

224.4

0.0

12/26/2023

2-year456

1/1/2026

0.1%

7,864.2

2,354.5

0.074%

0.064%

0.000

544.9

0.0

1/10/2024

10-year373

12/20/2033

0.6%

6,327.2

2,178.7

0.609%

0.596%

1.522

519.3

0.0

1/12/202430-year81

12/20/2053

1.6%

2,181.7

726.4

1.649%

1.629%

-

172.8

76.3

1/16/20245-year164

12/20/2028

0.2%

7,682.7

2,028.0

0.204%

0.197%

1.000

470.3

72.7

1/18/2024

20-year187

12/20/2043

1.3%

2,537.3

811.7

1.399%

1.383%

-

187.3

0.0

1/25/2024

40-year16

3/20/2063

1.3%

1,502.5

699.5

1.925%

-

-

-

69.3

1/30/20242-year457

2/1/2026

0.1%

8,830.1

2,359.7

0.082%

0.075%

0.000

539.7

289.2

Treasury Discount Bills
Auction Date

Type of
Security

Issue
Number(Until 31 January 2024)

Maturity Date

Amounts ofCompetitive
Bids(billion yen)Amounts ofBids
Accepted(billion yen)

Yield
at theLowestAccepted
Price

Yield
at theAverage Price

Amounts of Bids
Accepted at the
Non-pricecompetitive
Auction Ⅰ(billion yen)

11/2/2023

3-month1192

2/13/2024

14,250.00

4,547.13-0.1805%-0.1875%

1,052.80

11/9/2023

6-month1193

5/10/2024

10,104.70

3,295.17-0.1502%-0.1623%704.8011/10/2023

3-month1194

2/19/2024

17,182.00

4,547.15-0.1917%-0.1980%

1,052.80

11/16/2023

1-year1195

11/20/2024

10,547.20

2,851.88-0.0378%-0.0468%648.1011/17/2023

3-month1196

2/26/2024

16,065.90

4,547.17-0.2214%-0.2330%

1,052.80

11/24/2023

3-month1197

3/4/2024

11,459.50

4,547.17-0.2047%-0.2266%

1,052.80

12/1/2023

3-month1198

3/11/2024

14,815.30

4,547.12-0.1507%-0.1656%

1,052.80

12/7/2023

6-month1199

6/10/2024

10,482.80

3,349.00-0.1282%-0.1402%651.0012/8/2023

3-month1200

3/18/2024

12,191.20

4,547.15-0.1433%-0.1556%

1,052.80

12/15/2023

3-month1201

3/25/2024

14,001.91

4,547.16-0.1619%-0.1723%

1,052.80

12/18/2023

1-year1202

12/20/2024

10,585.50

2,979.45

0.0000%-0.0039%520.5012/22/2023

3-month1203

4/4/2024

10,649.71

4,547.48-0.1950%-0.2394%

1,052.50

1/5/2024

3-month1204

4/8/2024

14,776.92

4,547.17-0.1621%-0.1775%

1,052.80

1/9/2024

6-month1205

7/10/2024

12,035.30

3,249.48-0.1583%-0.1723%750.501/12/2024

3-month1206

4/15/2024

14,531.50

4,547.15-0.1944%-0.2080%

1,052.80

1/18/2024

1-year1207

1/20/2025

11,782.90

2,842.96-0.0461%-0.0551%657.001/19/2024

3-month1208

4/22/2024

12,603.00

4,547.17-0.1723%-0.1872%

1,052.80

1/26/2024

3-month1209

5/7/2024

12,374.80

4,547.15-0.1437%-0.1544%

1,052.80

7

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

JGB Primary Market: Auction Calendar
February 2024
AuctionDate
2/1
10-year
2/2

Issue

2/7

T-Bills (3-month)10-year Inflation-IndexedBonds
30-year

2/8

March 2024

April 2024

Auction
Issue
Date
3/1
T-Bills (3-month)AuctionDate
4/2
10-year

Issue

3/5

10-year

4/3

T-Bills (3-month)

3/7

T-Bills (6-month)

4/430-year

3/730-year

4/5

T-Bills (3-month)T-Bills (6-month)

3/8

T-Bills (3-month)

4/9

T-Bills (6-month)

2/9

T-Bills (3-month)

3/12

5-year4/95-year2/95-year10-year Japan Climate
Transition Bonds

3/14

20-year

4/11

20-year

3/15

T-Bills (3-month)

4/12

T-Bills (3-month)

2/5

2/14
2/16

T-Bills (3-month)

3/18

T-Bills (1-year)

4/16

Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 5-15.5 years)

2/16

Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 15.5-39 years)

3/21

Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 5-15.5 years)

4/18

T-Bills (1-year)

2/19

T-Bills (1-year)

3/22

T-Bills (3-month)

4/18

Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 15.5-39 years)

2/20

20-year

3/25

4/19

T-Bills (3-month)

2/22

T-Bills (3-month)
Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 5-15.5 years)
5-year Japan Climate
Transition Bonds
2-year3/27

Liquidity Enhancement
Auction (remaining
maturities of 1-5 years)
40-year

4/23

2-year

3/29

2-year

2/22
2/27
2/29

Note 1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance.
Note 2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.

Top10 PDs for Successful Bids in Auctions (Weighted by Duration)
Jul. 2023 - Dec. 2023

Top5 PDs for Successful Bids of JGBi
FY2022

1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd.

1 Mizuho Bank, Ltd.

2 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.

2 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd.

3 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.

3 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

4 Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.

4 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

5 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd.

5 Deutsche Securities Inc.

6 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.
7 Okasan Securities Co., Ltd.
8 Deutsche Securities Inc.
9 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
10 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.

8

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back
Results of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions
Auction Date

11/16/2023

Amounts ofCompetitive
Bids(billion yen)Amounts ofBids
Accepted(billion yen)

1,904.4

499.5

Average
Accepted
Spread‐0.013%(Until 31 January 2024)

HighestAccepted
SpreadIssues Re‐opened‐0.010%2 ‐year (445,451)
5 ‐year (142,144,145,149,152)
10‐year(337,339,342,343,344,345,346,347,348,352)
20‐year (75,76,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,86,94)

11/24/2023

2,185.3

498.9+0.031%+0.033%10‐year (353,354,355,356,357,365)
20‐year(108,110,111,112,116,118,119,121,122,123,124,125,128,130,131,132,133,135,136,
139,140,142,144,145)
30‐year (3,4,5,6,8,11)

12/20/2023

2,077.6

499.6‐0.081%‐0.079%10‐year (356,357,359,367,371)
20‐year(116,121,138,143,144,147,148,159,161,164,165,167)
30‐year (3,13,15,30)

12/22/2023

1,049.9

499.5+0.064%+0.085%20‐year (169,170,171,172,175,179,181,183,185)
30‐year (31,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40,41,42,43,47,49,65,73,77,79)
40‐year (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,15)‐0.008%2 ‐year (445,446,447,448,454)
5 ‐year (145,149,155,159)
10‐year(342,344,345,346,347,348,350,351,352)
20‐year (75,77,79,85,89,93,101,102,106)‐0.007%

10‐year (355,357,366)
20‐year(111,112,115,116,117,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,131,143,144,145,149,164,
166,167,168,169)
30‐year (3,10,12,28,29)

1/5/2024

1/22/2024

2,216.3

1,693.1

498.0

498.7

‐0.009%‐0.010%Issuance Amounts by Remaining Maturity for Liquidity Enhancement Auctions(October-December 2023)

Buy-Back Results (10-year Inflation-Indexed)(Until 31 January 2024)

Auction Date

Amounts ofCompetitive Bids
(billion yen)Amounts of Bids
Accepted(billion yen)

Average
Accepted
Spread (yen)HighestAccepted
Spread (yen)10/12/2023
11/13/2023
12/13/2023
1/11/2024

86.7
98.8
147.1
121.0

20.2
20.0
20.0
20.0

‐0.084‐0.454‐0.830‐0.266

‐0.01
‐0.34
‐0.83
‐0.25

9

Issue Numbers
19,20,21,23,24,26
27
25,27
24,25

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

JGB Secondary Market
JGB Yield Curves
10

2.5%

(%)

Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Volatility(%)

2023/6/30

1

8
0.8

2023/9/30
72023/11/30

1.5%

1.2

Yield (right scale)92023/3/31

2.0%(Until 31 January 2024)

2023/12/29

0.6

62024/1/31
5

1.0%

0.4

4

0.5%

0.2

3
0
2

0.0%

-0.2

1

-0.5%

0

5

10

15

20

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.

25

30

35

0
Jan-1340

Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23-0.4
Jan-24

Source: Bloomberg

Yields of JGB
2.5(%)

2-year bond5-year bond

10-year bond

20-year bond

30-year bond

40-year bond

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23Jan-24Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23Jan-24Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23Jan-24

Source: Bloomberg

Long - Term Interest Rates （10Yr）
5

(%)

Japan

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

4
3
2
1
0
-1
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Source: Bloomberg

Break-Even Inflation Rates

5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
BEI (Japan : 10 year)0%

BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)
BEI (U.K. : 10 year)-1%
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Note: BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds
Source: Bloomberg

10

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Short-Term Interest Rates(Until 31 January 2024)

0.5%
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)

0.4%

Basic Loan Rate

0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16
Sources: Bank of Japan, Tanshi Association, Bloomberg

Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23Jan-24JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)(trillion yen)
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

Jan-17

Treasury Discount Bills
Medium Term Bonds
Long Term Bonds

Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16
Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Note: Trading volume is the sum of sales and purchases including the trading volume of bonds with repurchase agreements.
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association160

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures(trillion yen)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Sources: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)

Repurchase Transactions(trillion yen)
5,000
Bond-Lending

4,500

Bond-Gensaki

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
.
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16

Jan-17Jan-18Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association11

Jan-19Jan-24JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding
Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)(trillion yen)
8.0
7.0

Super long-term bonds

City Banks

6.0

0.8

5.0

Long-term bonds

Regional Banks(trillion yen)
1.2
Net Purchase
1.0

Net Purchase

4.0

0.6

Medium-term bonds

3.0

0.4

T-bills

2.0

0.2

1.0
0.0

0.0

-1.0

-0.2

-2.0

-0.4

-3.0

-0.6

-4.0
-5.0

-0.8

Net Sale

-6.0

2019

2020

(trillion yen)
1.2

2021

2022

2023

Life and non-life insurance companies

2019

2020

2021

30.0

2022

2023

Foreigners(trillion yen)
35.0

Net Purchase

1.0

Net Sale-1.0

Net Purchase

0.8
25.0
0.6
20.0

0.4
0.2

15.0

0.0

10.0

-0.2
5.0
-0.4
0.0

-0.6

Net Sale

Net Sale
-5.0

-0.8

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Trends in Bank Assets by Types

City Banks(trillion yen)(trillion yen)

240
220
200

Loans

180

Cash and Deposits
Government Bonds
Municipal Bonds

Regional Banks

320
300
280
260
240
220
200

160

140
140

Corporate Bonds

120

Equities

100

120
100

Foreign Securities

80

80
60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Source: Bank of Japan

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

BOJ Trends(trillion yen)

800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Total Assets
350
Monetary Base
300
250
JGBs
200
T-Bills
150
100
50
0
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23

QQE

Apr 2013(Actual)Jan 2024(Actual)Monetary Base

155

670

QQE2

Source: Bank of Japan

12

JGBs

98

593

T-Bills

36

3.9

CP

1.4

2.5

Corporate
Bonds

2.9

6.1

ETFs

1.7

37.2

J-REITs

0.13

0.66

Total Assets

175

756

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Banks(Banking Accounts)

Life Insurance Companies(trillion yen)(trillion yen)

83
Equity and investment fund shares

Net Purchase

Net Purchase

Short-term debt securities

62Long-term debt securities
4

1
2
0
0
-1
-2

Equity and investment fund shares
Short-term debt securities-2-4

Net Sales

Long-term debt securities

Net Sales-3-6Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Source: Ministry of FinanceSource: Ministry of FinanceTransactions of Domestic Securities
by Non-Residents

Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements(by Investor types)(trillion yen)

40%

15

Net Purchase

Trust Banks

35%

10

Foreigners
30%

5

25%
20%

0

15%

-5

Insurance Companies

City Banks
10%

-10

Net Sales

Equity and investment fund shares
Short-term debt securities
Long-term debt securities

5%0%
Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23-15
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Source: Ministry of FinanceSource: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Foreign Investors Presence

JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors

80%

(％)

Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)

73.4%

15

70%

(trillion yen)

16

14

200

Proportion of JGB Holdings (LHS)

165.4

13

60%

220

13.7

Amount of JGB Holdings (RHS)

12

180
160

11

50%

140

10

Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market) *Note 3

44.8% 9

40%

120

8
100

7
6

30%

80

5

JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors

60

4

20%

13.7% 3

40

2

10%

20
1
0

0%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

0
Mar-13Note 1: Quarterly basis.
Note 2: “JGB” includes T-Bills.
Note 3: The figures excludes dealers’ transactions.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Japan Exchange Group, Inc.

13

Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16

Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Note 1: Quarterly basis.
Note 2: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds” and “T-Bills”.
Source: Bank of Japan

Mar-20Mar-21

Mar-22Mar-23

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of Sep. 2023 QE)
JGB Holders

JGB and T-Bill Holders

T-Bill Holders(Unit: trillion yen)

Total 1,065.9 trillion yen

Total 1,207.2 trillion yen

Total 141.3 trillion yen

Note 1: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds.”
Note 2: “Banks” includes “Japan Post Bank,” “Securities investment trusts,” “Securities companies,” etc.
Note 3: “Insurance companies” includes “Life insurance,” “Nonlife insurance,” and “Mutual aid insurance.”
Note 4: “General Government” excludes “Public Pensions.”
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)”

Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity

14

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024
Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB (December, 2023)（trillion yen）
140
135.76130

Average remaining years to maturity： 9 years and 4 months

120

Treasury Bills
2-yr bonds

110
97.31

100

JGBs for retail investors (3-yr fixed-rate)
JGBs for retail investors (5-yr fixed-rate)

90
5-yr bonds

80
70

JGBs for retail investors (10-yr floating-rate)
60.69

60

10-yr bonds
50.10

50
40

10-yr inflation-indexed bonds

73.17
70.00

45.04
41.57

38.54

51.96

20-yr bonds
30-yr bonds

39.61

40-yr bonds

30

22.37
22.56
21.20
21.61
21.29
20.0919.8918.86
17.81
16.33

20

13.0413.51
11.79
11.27
12.53
9.93
9.74 10.2210.24
7.69

10

2.31 3.19 2.94

1.95

2.42

3.90 3.98 4.50

2.86

023 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

Note: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.
Source: Ministry of Finance(FY)

Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in February, 2024
(billion yen)

The amount of redemption
at maturity

Types
2-Year Bonds
Treasury Bills (1-Year)
Total

Date of redemption

3,230.9
3,500.0
6,730.9

2/1/2024
2/20/2024

Note 1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of December, 2023.
Note 2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs.
Note 3: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors."
Note 4: If date of redemption coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day.
Note 5: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.

Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds(as of the end of December, 2023)(billion yen)
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Outstanding amount(excl. BOJ holding)
BOJ holding

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan(trillion yen)

25

26

27

28

(issue number)

General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding

Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2013-2022: Actual, FY2023: Supplementary budget, FY2024: Initial.
Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2013-2022: Actual, FY2023: Supplementary budget, FY2024: Initial
Source: Ministry of Finance15(trillion yen)(at the end of FY)

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Economic and Financial Trends
Real GDP Growth Rate

Changes in Current Account(%) Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)

30(trillion yen)

12

23.9

10

20

8
10

5.8
3.6 3.9 3.4

1.8
0.4

0.5

3.1
0.5

3.2 3.4
0.9 0.6 1.5 0.5 0 1.4

4.44.05.0 4.6
0.91.4 0.7 2.1

1.01.56

1.7-0.8 -0.7-0.5-2.2 -0.5-1.9 -2.7 -0.8

4.3

4.9
2.1
1.7

2

-3.3

-10.5

-1.0

-2

-20

6.0

5.8

4.8

5.9

6.2
5.5

5.2

4.9

5.5
4.4

5.3
3.6

3.5

3.3

6.1

5.3 4.94.9

5.0
4.3
2.7

2.1
2.1

1.6

0

-7.1

4.3

3.9

2.0
0.9

1.6

-10

6.4

6.1

5.0

4

-0.4

0

7.8

7.3
6.1

7.8

6.5

2.4

1.6

0.9

-0.5

-4
Foreign Demand
Private Demand-30

Public Demand
Real GDP

-6

-27.7

Primary Income
Services
Current Account-8-40
ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

(%)

4.5

ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Source: Ministry of Finance

Employment Conditions(ratio)

1.8

5.0

(%)

2023
(CY)

PricesChange from the previous year

Dec. 2023
2.8%

4.0

Unemployment rate
(LHS)

4.0

-10

2023
(CY)

Source: Cabinet Office

Trade Balance
Secondary Income

1.6
3.0

Dec. 2023
1.27

3.5

1.4

2.0
1.0

3.0

1.2

0.0

Dec. 2023
2.6%

-1.0

2.5

1.0
Job openings-to-applicants ratio
(RHS)

2.0
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

CPI
CPI excluding food (excluding alcohilic beverages) and energy-2.0

Dec. 2023
2.4%
0.8

-3.0
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Wage Indices

Indices of Industrial Production(2020 = 100, seasonally adjusted, establishments with 5 employees or more)
108(2020 average=100, Seasonally Adjusted Index)
130
Production
Shipments

Nov. 2023
103.4

106

Real wage indices120

Inventories

Inventory Ratio

104
110

102
100

100
90

98
80

96

Total cash earnings(Nominal wage indices)Nov. 2023
95.7

70Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

94
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Total Value of Machinery Orders

TANKAN (Business Conditions)40(billion yen)

(Diffusion index, % points)
1,000

30

Monthly(Private Sector excl. Volatile orders)
Quarter (Mean)

950
20
900

10

850

0
-10

800

-20
750

Large enterprises/Manufacturing-30

Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing

-40

700

Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing650
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23-50
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Source: Cabinet Office

Source: Bank of Japan

16

JGB Monthly Newsletter February 2024

Information
English Publications on JGBs

Frequency

URL

Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm

About JGBs

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm

About the Debt Management Policy

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm

JGB Issuance Plan

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm

Auction Calendar
Auction Calendar

Monthly

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm

Historical Data of Auction Results

Monthly

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html

Topics
Product Characteristics of the JGB

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html

Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills)

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm

Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds

Annualhttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm

Interest Rate Swap

Semiannual

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm

Taxation of Government Bonds

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html

For Individual Investors

As needed

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm

Quarterly

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm

DataCentral Government Debt
Interest Rate

Daily

STRIPShttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm

Quarterly

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm

Dialogue with the market
Study Group on Government Debt Management

Each Meetinghttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/study_gov_debt_management/index.html

Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants

Each Meetinghttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html

Meeting of JGB Investors

Each Meetinghttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html

Publications
Debt Management Report

Annualhttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm

JGB Newsletter

Monthly

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm

To see our past Newsletters,
please visit the link below
or scan this QR code.

To subscribe to our Newsletter, please email:JGB-IR@mof.go.jp

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm

Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan
Phone: 81-3-3581-4111
Web: https://www.mof.go.jp/

17