Scenario
Narratives
LOCK STEP
A world of tighter top-down government control and moreauthoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

citizen pushback

18In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been
anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s
H1N1, this new influenza strain — originatingfrom wild geese — was extremely virulent anddeadly. Even the most pandemic-preparednations were quickly overwhelmed when thevirus streaked around the world, infecting nearly
20 percent of the global population and killing
8 million in just seven months, the majority ofthem healthy young adults. The pandemic also
had a deadly effect on economies: international
mobility of both people and goods screeched toa halt, debilitating industries like tourism andbreaking global supply chains. Even locally,normally bustling shops and office buildings sat
empty for months, devoid of both employees
and customers.

The pandemic blanketed the planet — thoughdisproportionate numbers died in Africa,
Southeast Asia, and Central America, wherethe virus spread like wildfire in the absenceof official containment protocols. But evenin developed countries, containment was achallenge. The United States’s initial policy of“strongly discouraging” citizens from flying
proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating thespread of the virus not just within the U.S. but
across borders. However, a few countries did
fare better — China in particular. The Chinese
government’s quick imposition and enforcementof mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as wellas its instant and near-hermetic sealing off ofall borders, saved millions of lives, stopping
the spread of the virus far earlier than in othercountries and enabling a swifter postpandemic recovery.

restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of facemasks to body-temperature checks at the entries
to communal spaces like train stations andsupermarkets. Even after the pandemic faded,this more authoritarian control and oversightof citizens and their activities stuck and evenintensified. In order to protect themselves fromthe spread of increasingly global problems — frompandemics and transnational terrorism toenvironmental crises and rising poverty — leaders
around the world took a firmer grip on power.
At first, the notion of a more controlled world
gained wide acceptance and approval. Citizens
willingly gave up some of their sovereignty — andtheir privacy — to more paternalistic statesin exchange for greater safety and stability.
Citizens were more tolerant, and even eager, for
top-down direction and oversight, and national
leaders had more latitude to impose order in theways they saw fit. In developed countries, thisheightened oversight took many forms: biometric
IDs for all citizens, for example, and tighter
regulation of key industries whose stability

was deemed vital to national interests. In many
developed countries, enforced cooperation with asuite of new regulations and agreements slowly
but steadily restored both order and, importantly,
economic growth.
Across the developing world, however, thestory was different — and much more variable.
Top-down authority took different forms
in different countries, hinging largely on
the capacity, caliber, and intentions of theirleaders. In countries with strong and thoughtful
leaders, citizens’ overall economic statusand quality of life increased. In India, forexample, air quality drastically improved after
2016, when the government outlawed highemitting vehicles. In Ghana, the introductionof ambitious government programs to improvebasic infrastructure and ensure the availabilityof clean water for all her people led to a sharp
decline in water-borne diseases. But moreauthoritarian leadership worked less well — andin some cases tragically — in countries run byirresponsible elites who used their increased
power to pursue their own interests at theexpense of their citizens.
There were other downsides, as the rise ofvirulent nationalism created new hazards:
spectators at the 2018 World Cup, for example,

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

China’s government was not the only one thattook extreme measures to protect its citizens
from risk and exposure. During the pandemic,
national leaders around the world flexed theirauthority and imposed airtight rules and19Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

wore bulletproof vests that sported a patchof their national flag. Strong technology
regulations stifled innovation, kept costs high,and curbed adoption. In the developing world,
access to “approved” technologies increased

Meanwhile, in the developed world, the presenceof so many top-down rules and norms greatly
inhibited entrepreneurial activity. Scientists
and innovators were often told by governments
what research lines to pursue and were guided

but beyond that remained limited: the locus
of technology innovation was largely in thedeveloped world, leaving many developing
countries on the receiving end of technologies
that others consider “best” for them. Somemostly toward projects that would make money(e.g., market-driven product development) or
were “sure bets” (e.g., fundamental research),leaving more risky or innovative researchareas largely untapped. Well-off countries andmonopolistic companies with big research anddevelopment budgets still made significant
advances, but the IP behind their breakthroughsremained locked behind strict national or
corporate protection. Russia and India imposed
stringent domestic standards for supervisingand certifying encryption-related products andtheir suppliers — a category that in reality meant
all IT innovations. The U.S. and EU struck backwith retaliatory national standards, throwing
a wrench in the development and diffusion oftechnology globally.

“IT IS POSSIBLE TO DISCIPLINE
AND CONTROL SOME SOCIETIESFOR SOME TIME, BUT NOT THE
WHOLE WORLD ALL THE TIME.”

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development– GK Bhat, TARU Leading Edge, India

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governments found this patronizing and refused
to distribute computers and other technologies
that they scoffed at as “second hand.”Meanwhile, developing countries with moreresources and better capacity began to innovateinternally to fill these gaps on their own.

Especially in the developing world, acting in
one’s national self-interest often meant seeking
practical alliances that fit with thoseinterests — whether it was gaining access toneeded resources or banding together in orderto achieve economic growth. In South Americaand Africa, regional and sub-regional alliances
became more structured. Kenya doubled its

Wherever national interests clashed withindividual interests, there was conflict. Sporadic
pushback became increasingly organized andcoordinated, as disaffected youth and people
who had seen their status and opportunities slip

trade with southern and eastern Africa, as newpartnerships grew within the continent. China’s
investment in Africa expanded as the bargainof new jobs and infrastructure in exchange foraccess to key minerals or food exports proved
agreeable to many governments. Cross-borderties proliferated in the form of official security
aid. While the deployment of foreign security
teams was welcomed in some of the most direfailed states, one-size-fits-all solutions yielded
few positive results.

away — largely in developing countries — incited
civil unrest. In 2026, protestors in Nigeria
brought down the government, fed up with theentrenched cronyism and corruption. Even those
who liked the greater stability and predictabilityof this world began to grow uncomfortable andconstrained by so many tight rules and by thestrictness of national boundaries. The feelinglingered that sooner or later, something would
inevitably upset the neat order that the world’s
governments had worked so hard to establish. •By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary ofso much top-down control and letting leaders
and authorities make choices for them.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

21Scenario Narratives LOCK STEPHEADLINES IN LOCK STEP
Quarantine Restricts
In-Person Contact;
Cellular Networks
Overloaded(2013)

2010

Italy Addresses'Immigrant Caregiver'Gap with Robots(2017)

2015
Intercontinental
Trade Hit by Strict
Pathogen Controls(2015)

Vietnam to Require‘A Solar Panelon Every Home’(2022)

2020
Will Africa’s Embraceof Authoritarian
Capitalism a la
China Continue?
(2018)

2025

African Leaders Fear
Repeat of Nigeria's 2026
Government Collapse(2028)

2030

Proliferating Trade
Networks in Easternand Southern Africa
Strengthen Regional Ties(2023)

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

ROLE OF PHILANTHROPY IN LOCK STEP

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Philanthropic organizations will face hard choices in this world. Given the strongrole of governments, doing philanthropy will require heightened diplomacy skills andthe ability to operate effectively in extremely divergent environments. Philanthropy
grantee and civil society relationships will be strongly moderated by government,
and some foundations might choose to align themselves more closely with national
official development assistance (ODA) strategies and government objectives.
Larger philanthropies will retain an outsized share of influence, and many smaller
philanthropies may find value in merging financial, human, and operational resources.
Philanthropic organizations interested in promoting universal rights and freedoms will
get blocked at many nations’ borders. Developing smart, flexible, and wide-ranging
relationships in this world will be key; some philanthropies may choose to work onlyin places where their skills and services don’t meet resistance. Many governments
will place severe restrictions on the program areas and geographies that internationalphilanthropies can work in, leading to a narrower and stronger geographic focus or
grant-making in their home country only.

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEPTECHNOLOGY IN LOCK STEP
While there is no way of accurately predicting what the important technologicaladvancements will be in the future, the scenario narratives point to areas whereconditions may enable or accelerate the development of certain kinds of technologies.
Thus for each scenario we offer a sense of the context for technological innovation,
taking into consideration the pace, geography, and key creators. We also suggest a few
technology trends and applications that could flourish in each scenario.
Technological innovation in “Lock Step” is largely driven by government and is
focused on issues of national security and health and safety. Most technologicalimprovements are created by and for developed countries, shaped by governments’dual desire to control and to monitor their citizens. In states with poor governance,large-scale projects that fail to progress abound.

• Scanners using advanced functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)
technology become the norm at airports and other public areas to detect
abnormal behavior that may indicate “antisocial intent.”• In the aftermath of pandemic scares, smarter packaging for food and beverages
is applied first by big companies and producers in a business-to-businessenvironment, and then adopted for individual products and consumers.
• New diagnostics are developed to detect communicable diseases. The
application of health screening also changes; screening becomes a prerequisite
for release from a hospital or prison, successfully slowing the spread of many
diseases.
• Tele-presence technologies respond to the demand for less expensive, lowerbandwidth, sophisticated communications systems for populations whose travelis restricted.
• Driven by protectionism and national security concerns, nations create theirown independent, regionally defined IT networks, mimicking China’s firewalls.
Governments have varying degrees of success in policing internet traffic, butthese efforts nevertheless fracture the “World Wide” Web.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

Technology trends and applications we might see:23

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

LIFE IN LOCK STEP
Manisha gazed out on the Ganges River, mesmerized by what she saw. Back in
2010, when she was 12 years old, her parents had brought her to this river so that she

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

could bathe in its holy waters. But standing at the edge, Manisha had been afraid. It
wasn’t the depth of the river or its currents that had scared her, but the water itself:
it was murky and brown and smelled pungently of trash and dead things. Manisha
had balked, but her mother had pushed her forward, shouting that this river flowedfrom the lotus feet of Vishnu and she should be honored to enter it. Along withmillions of Hindus, her mother believed the Ganges’s water could cleanse a person’s
soul of all sins and even cure the sick. So Manisha had grudgingly dunked herself
in the river, accidentally swallowing water in the process and receiving a bad caseof giardia, and months of diarrhea, as a result.

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Remembering that experience is what made today so remarkable. It was now 2025.
Manisha was 27 years old and a manager for the Indian government’s Ganges
Purification Initiative (GPI). Until recently, the Ganges was still one of the mostpolluted rivers in the world, its coliform bacteria levels astronomical due to thefrequent disposal of human and animal corpses and of sewage (back in 2010, 89
million liters per day) directly into the river. Dozens of organized attempts to clean
the Ganges over the years had failed. In 2009, the World Bank even loaned India$1 billion to support the government’s multi-billion dollar cleanup initiative. But
then the pandemic hit, and that funding dried up. But what didn’t dry up was thegovernment’s commitment to cleaning the Ganges — now not just an issue of publichealth but increasingly one of national pride.
Manisha had joined the GPI in 2020, in part because she was so impressed by
the government’s strong stance on restoring the ecological health of India’s mosttreasured resource. Many lives in her home city of Jaipur had been saved by thegovernment’s quarantines during the pandemic, and that experience, thought
Manisha, had given the government the confidence to be so strict about river usage

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

now: how else could they get millions of Indian citizens to completely shift their

Manisha watched as an engineering team began unloading equipment on the banks.
Many top Indian scientists and engineers had been recruited by the government todevelop tools and strategies for cleaning the Ganges in more high-tech ways. Herfavorite were the submersible bots that continuously “swam” the river to detect,through sensors, the presence of chemical pathogens. New riverside filtration
systems that sucked in dirty river water and spit out far cleaner water were also
impressive — especially because on the outside they were designed to look likemini-temples. In fact, that’s why Manisha was at the river today, to oversee theinstallation of a filtration system located not even 100 feet from where she first
stepped into the Ganges as a girl. The water looked so much cleaner now, and recent
tests suggested that it might even meet drinkability standards by 2035. Manisha
was tempted to kick off her shoe and dip her toe in, but this was a restricted area
now — and she, of all people, would never break that law.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

cultural practices in relationship to a holy site? Discarding ritually burned bodies
in the Ganges was now illegal, punishable by years of jail time. Companies foundto be dumping waste of any kind in the river were immediately shut down by thegovernment. There were also severe restrictions on where people could bathe andwhere they could wash clothing. Every 20 meters along the river was marked bya sign outlining the repercussions of “disrespecting India’s most treasured naturalresource.” Of course, not everyone liked it; protests flared every so often. But noone could deny that the Ganges was looking more beautiful and healthier than ever.

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