APLICATION OF TSUNAMINUMERICAL MODELLING FOR
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Lic. César Jiménez
Division of Geophysics DHN
University of San Marcos

Seismicity of PerúSeismic gapsa) Seismic gap of Trujillo-Chiclayo.- Size of thefault 350 km in northern Perú. The potencial
magnitude would be at least 8.6 Mw.
b) Seismic gap of Chancay-Huarmey.- Size offault 200 km (aprox). The potencial magnitude
would be at least 8.2 Mw. If the rupture would
be from Cañete to Huarmey, the size would be390 km, magnitude at least 8.7 Mw.
c) Seismic gap of Yauca-Ocoña.- Located inArequipa. Size of the fault 140 km, The
potencial magnitude would be at least 7.9 Mw.
d) Seismic gap of Ilo-Arica.- Size of fault 150km, located between Moquegua and Tacna.
The potencial magnitude would be at least 8.0
Mw.
e) Seismic gap of Arica-Antofagasta: Size offault greater than 500 km and potencial
magnitude 9.0 Mw. The last earthquake took
place in 1877.
3Remarkable Tsunamis in Peru (something in spanish, sorry!)
28 OCTOBER 1746

23 JUNE 200103 OCTOBER 1974

El Callao fue destruido. Olas másde 10 m. Causó la muerte de 5 á 7
mil habitantes. También hubo
destrucción
especialmenteenChancay y Huacho.

Tsunamien
Camaná,epicentro en el mar al NW deOcoña, Magnitud 8.4 Mw.
Generó tres olas, la mayor
alcanzó una altura de 8m.
Causando la muerte de 23
personas, 63 desaparecidos ycuantiosos daños materiales.

Originado frente a las costas delCallao, el Tsunami inundo varias
fábricas frente a las bahías deChimú y Tortugas (norte de Lima)
destruyendo muelles y cultivos.

13 AUGUST 1868
Daños desde Trujillo ( Perú ) hasta
Concepción(Chile);
Hawai,
Australia y Japón. Terremoto 9.0
Mw, epicentro se localizó en el mar
a 70 km de Arica. Olas
aproximadamente 14 metros

21 FEBRUARY 1996
Originado a 210 Km. al SW deChimbote, Magnitud 6.9. La ola
causó daños materiales y pérdidasde 15 vidas humanas en Chimbote,en
Salaverry
causó
daños
materiales de poca consideración

22 MAY 1960
Originado frente a las costas deChile, magnitud 9.5 Mw. En laPunta (Callao) el mareógrafo
registro 2.2 m de altura. Los daños
más grandes fueron en Chile,
Hawai y Japón

12 NOVEMBER 1996
15 AUGUST 2007
Originado frente a las costas
de Pisco (Ica), magnitud 8.0
Mw. En Lagunillas la altura
maxima fue de 10m. En la
Punta (Callao) el mareógrafo
registro 70 cm de altura.

Originado a 93 Km. SW de San
Juan de Marcona. Magnitud 6.4
profundidad 46 Km. Causó grandes
daños materiales y pérdidas devidas humanas.

41746 Tsunami of Callao Mw9.0

5Inundation line for 1746 Callao Tsunami Mw9.0

Ventanilla

Villa Chorrillos

Callao

Lurín

6788

TSUNAMI OF CAMANA(AREQUIPA) 2001
EPICENTER
16.15°S; 74.4°W
MAGNITUDE
8.4 Mw
DATE
Saturday, Jun 23, 2001
ORIGIN TIME
15:33:13 (LOCAL)ARRIVAL TIME
20 minutes
MAXIMUM HEIGHT
8m
EFFECTS
24 victims due to thetsunami and great material
damages.

TSUNAMI OF PISCO(ICA) 2007
EPICENTER
16.15°S; 74.4°W
MAGNITUDE
8.0 Mw
DATE
Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2007
ORIGIN TIME
18:40 (LOCAL)ARRIVAL TIME
15 minMAXIMUM HEIGHT
9.5 m (Lagunillas)
EFFECTS500 victims due to theearthquake and 3 victims
due to the tsunami. Greatmaterial damages.

TSUNAMI OF CHILE2010
EPICENTER:
Lat: 36.1 S
Lon: 72.6 W
MAGNITUDE
8.8 Mw
DATE
Saturday, Feb 27, 2010
ORIGIN TIME
01:34 (LOCAL)VICTIMS: near 600

11Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan 2011 (Mw=9.0)
The seismic source model can be obtained from seismic data, geodetic data or
tsunami data through inversión method. In this case, the greatest asperity islocated just between Sendai and Ofunato, what expains the great destruction
caused by the tsunami in this zone.
(Fujii 2011)(Caltech)(DHN 2011)

Tsunami 2011: impact on PerúStation

Max. (m)Mín. (m)Per. (min)Travel time

Paita

0.91

-1.11

78

19h 18min

Callao

1.75

-1.65

45

20h 20min

Pisco

0.58

-0.69

80

20h 30min

Matarani

0.44

-0.40

45

20h 50min

13PERUVIAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMThe Direction of Hidrography
and Navigation conduct themanagement of the Peruvian
Tsunami Warning System.
We will talk about the advancesof numerical tsunami simulationapplied for improvement of early
warning.
We need a system for to getquickly the tsunami parameters,such as: arrival time andmaximun height of the wave fornear field tsunamis.

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DATABASE OF SEISMIC
UNIT SOURCES- Taking into account theseismicity and seismic gapsof peruvian coast, we havechoosen the area from
Antofagasta to Ecuador.
- This area was divided in 130“unit sources” of 50x50 km.
- The idea is to conduct thesimulation of tsunami
propagation for each unit
source and calculate theGreen functions or virtual
mareograms in some location(see next slide).

Location of virtual Tidal Stations---

We have put 22 virtualstations, most of themcoincide with locationsof real tidal gauges
and 3 DART buoys.
These virtual gauges
belongs to principal
cities and harbors
along the peruvian
coast.
In some future, we willconduct the posttsunami waveform
inversion for to get theslip distribution.

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Database Governing Equations
All the relations are strongly dependent of the magnitude Mw.
The tsunami output is the linear combination of Green Functions
An amplification factor (slip D) is needed.
log( L)  0.55 M  2.19log(W )  0.31M  0.63log( M 0 )  1.5M  9.1
M 0  LWD
NLW50 * 50Mw

N

7.0

1

7.5

28.0

5

8.5

129.0

33

NTsunami  D  (Green _ Function k )k 1Graphics User Interface

18Output of the software from Database- The output result will be useful only for nearfield tsunamis.
- The output results are a) the arrival time of thefirst wave and b) the maximum heigth of thetsunami wave.
- This output will be useful for to give thetsunami warning (or evacuation) only forsome cities.

19

Applications and future research
In the Pacific Ring of Fire there are several seismic “gaps” to be monitored(Cascadia gap, southern Japan gap, etc), so it will be of interest:
1) Development of a catalogue of tsunami simulated or “unit sources” and Greenfunctions for all the Pacific Ring of Fire.
2) Implementation of a quasi real-time tsunami warning system from waveform
inversion for near-field tsunamis for Peruvian coasts (a denser tidal network isneeded).
3) Implementation of a real-time tsunami warning system for far-field tsunamis
from DART buoys inversion.

Picture taken from
Koike & Imamura 2003

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