㢼㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾⤒῭ᛶ䠅άືᡂᯝ䛸௒ᚋ䛾άືィ⏬

㻞㻜㻞㻠ᖺ㻞᭶㻞㻤᪥ᮾி኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔ᕤᏛ⣔◊✲⛉⳥ᆅ⏤ెTask53䛾ᴫせ2/19ྡ⛠䠖Wind Energy Economics┠ᶆ䠖 ⬺Ⅳ⣲♫఍䛻䛚䛡䜛㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䜢ศᯒ䛩䜛άືෆᐜ䠖ྛᅜ䛾䝁䝇䝖ศᯒ䛾ᑓ㛛ᐙ䛜ᡤᐃ䛾Work Package䛻ᇶ䛵䛝䚸䛭䜜䛮䜜䛾ᅜ䛾⌧≧ཬ䜃ᑗ᮶䛾ືྥ䜢ศᯒ䞉ᩚ⌮䚹
6䛴䛾Work Package䛜䛒䜚䚸ྛᅜ䛾஦᝟䚸㛵ᚰ䛛䜙㛵୚䛩䜛Work䜢㑅ᢥ䚹ᖺ2ᅇ䛾In-person meeting䚸ẖ᭶䛾Web meeting➼䜢㏻䛨䛶䝕䜱䝇䜹䝑䝅䝵䞁䚹┤㏆䛷䛿䚸2023ᖺ11᭶14-16᪥䛻䝗䜲䝒䞉䜹䝑䝉䝹䛷In-person meeting䛜㛤ദ䛥䜜䛯䚹άືᮇ㛫䠖2021ᖺ12᭶1᪥䡚2025ᖺ11᭶30᪥
ཧຍᅜ䠖 ⡿ᅜ䚸ⱥᅜ䚸䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽䚸䝗䜲䝒䚸䝜䝹䜴䜵䞊䚸䝇䜴䜵䞊䝕䞁䚸EC䠄European Commission䠅䚸᪥ᮏ䚸䜰䜲䝹䝷䞁䝗䚸䜸䝷䞁䝎

Operating Agent(OA)䠖 Beiter Philipp䠄NREL䠅ጤဨ䠖䚽⳥ᆅ⏤ె䠄ᮾி኱Ꮫ䠅䚸ᮌᮧၨ஧䠄኱㜰⏘ᴗ኱Ꮫ䠅Task53 άື┠ⓗ䛾ᴫせ3/19 㧗䛔ᬑཬ⋡ୗ䛷䛾ᮍ᮶䛻䛚䛡䜛㢼ຊ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䛾タィ䚸㐠⏝➼䛾ഴྥ䜢ண䝇䝖䛸౯್䜢ྵ䜐㢼ຊ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䛾⤒῭ⓗᥦ౪䜈䛾ᙳ㡪䜢⌮ゎ䛩䜛䚹䛧䚸䝁• ᅜ㝿ⓗ䛺༠ຊ䛸༠ㄪ䛻䜘䛳䛶ᚓ䜙䜜䛯᭱ඛ➃䛾ᡭἲ䛷䚸㐍໬䛩䜛㢼ຊ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䛾⤒῭ᛶ䜢ศᯒ䛩䜛䚹• ᵝ䚻䛺䝇䝔䞊䜽䝩䝹䝎䞊䛻䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䜢ఏ䛘䜛䛯䜑䛾䝕䞊䝍䜢ᥦ౪䛩䜛䚹• ⬺Ⅳ⣲໬䛜㐍䜣䛰ᮍ᮶䛻䛚䛡䜛ᢏ⾡㐍໬䚸◊✲㛤Ⓨ䛾ᚲせᛶ䚸䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䛾ഴྥ䜢᫂䜙䛛䛻䛩䜛䚹• ᢏ⾡ሗ࿌᭩䜔㞧ㄅグ஦䚸䛭䛾௚䛾ᬑཬᡭẁ䛷◊✲ᡂᯝ䜢Ⓨ⾲䛩䜛䚹
Power Sector Trends

Value• Power System Value• Consumer Value• Deep de-carboniza on• Si ng constraints• Use of hydrogen

Economicsof Wind

• Integrated transmission• Larger turbines• Integrated and industrialized supply chains

Emerging Wind Technologies and Solu ons

Genera onCost• LCOE
• Integra on costs

Externaleﬀects• Supply chain• JobsPerformance Metrics• Holis c cost and value metrics• Metrics for new wind applica ons (e.g., inconsidera on of hydrogen and storage)• Uncertainty

Task53䠖άືෆᐜ㼃㻼㼃㻼㻝㼃㻼㻞㢟┠䛸ෆᐜ䇾㢼ຊⓎ㟁ᡤ䛾タィ䞉㐠㌿⥔ᣢ⟶⌮䞉౯್䛿䚸⬺Ⅳ⣲໬䛻క䛔䚸䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ኚ໬䛩䜛䛛䠛䇿ᢸᙜ⪅ᑓ㛛ᐙ䜈䛾䜲䞁䝍䝡䝳䞊䠄㻱㼤㼜㼑㼞㼠㻌㼑㼘㼕㼏㼕㼠㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚䠅䜢⏝䛔䛶䚸㢼ຊⓎ㟁ᡤ䛾ᢏ⾡䚸タィ䚸㐠㌿⥔ᣢ⟶⌮䛻䛴䛔䛶⌧ᅾ᳨ウ䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛ᢏ⾡㠉᪂䛻䛴䛔䛶ㄪᰝ䛩䜛䚹㻺㻾㻱㻸䠄㼁㻿㻭䠅䇾ಶู䛾ᢏ⾡㠉᪂䚸㐠㌿⥔ᣢ⟶⌮᪉ἲ䛿䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䛻䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䜛䛛䠛䇿䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹䜢ᵓ⠏䛧䚸ᢏ⾡䚸タィ䚸⥔ᣢ⟶⌮䛾㠉᪂䛜䝁䝇䝖䛻୚䛘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢ㄪᰝ䛩䜛䚹ᆅᇦ䛸㏦㟁⥺䛾䝍䜲䝥䛻ᑐ䛧䛶ẚ㍑䛾䜿䞊䝇䝇䝍䝕䜱䜢ᐇ᪋䛩䜛䚹㼃㻼㻟㼃㻼㻠㼃㻼㻡㼁㼀㼛㼗㼥㼛 㻔㻶㻼㻺㻕䇾୙☜䛛䛥䛿㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾䝁䝇䝖䚸౯್䛸㔠⼥䛻䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䜛䛛䠛䇿⌧ᅾ㐍䜣䛷䛔䜛㔠⼥䝁䝇䝖䛻䛯䛔䛩䜛ᑓ㛛ᐙ䜈䛾ㄪᰝ䛾⤖ᯝ䜢ศᯒ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛻䜘䜚䚸୙☜䛛䛥䜔䝸䝇䜽䛜ᐇ㝿䛻ཬ䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䛻䛴䛔䛶ㄪᰝ䛩䜛䚹ḟ䛻䚸䛣䜜䜙䛾୙☜䛛䛥䛜㻸㻯㻻㻱䛻୚ 㻺㻾㻱㻸䠄㼁㻿㻭䠅䛘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢᫂䜙䛛䛻䛩䜛䚹᭱ᚋ䛻䚸䝅䝘䝸䜸䝧䞊䝇䛾㢼ຊ䛾㔠⼥䝁䝇䝖䛾ண 䝰䝕䝹䜢ᵓ⠏䛩䜛䚹䇾䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䝕䞊䝍䛸ศᯒᡭἲ䛜䚸⌧ᅾ䛸㐣ཤ䛾㢼ຊⓎ㟁䝁䝇䝖䜢䜘䜚Ⰻ䛟⌮ゎ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䜅䛥䜟䛧䛔䛛䠛䇾㻺㻾㻱㻸䠄㼁㻿㻭䠅ẖᖺ䛾ྛᅜ䛾㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛻㛵䛩䜛ᢏ⾡䞉⤒῭䛻㛵䛩䜛䝕䞊䝍䛾ㄪᰝ䜢⾜䛖䛸䛸䜒䛻䚸Ⓨ㟁䝁䝇䝖➼䛻䜘䜛⤒῭ᛶホ౯ᡭἲ䛾ᥦ᱌䛸᳨ド䜢⾜䛖䚹䇾᪂䛧䛔㏦㟁⥙䛸Ỉ⣲䛿䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䛻䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䜛䛛䠛䇾䝅䝘䝸䜸◊✲䛻䜘䜚䚸ཧຍᅜ䛜ಖ᭷䛧䛶䛔䜛䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛶䚸Ỉ⣲䛸㏦㟁⥺䛜䝁䝇䝖䛸౯್䛻୚䛘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢ホ౯䛩䜛䚹

㼃㻼㻢

4/19

㻱㻭㻌㻔㻰㻺㻷㻕䇾ᡂ⇍䛧䛯ᑗ᮶䛾ᕷሙ䛻䛚䛔䛶䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛿䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻Ⓨᒎ䛧ኚ໬䛩䜛䛛䠛䇿㻞㻜㻟㻜ᖺ䚸㻞㻜㻡㻜ᖺ䜎䛷䛾㞠⏝๰ฟᩘ䚸኎䜚ୖ䛢つᶍ䛸䛔䛳䛯ᑗ᮶䛾౯್䜢ホ౯ ㄆドᶵ㛵䚸 㻶㻾㻯㻌㻔㻱㼁㻕㻱㻼㻰䜔䛭䛾௚䛛䜙㢼㌴䛾㒊ရ䛸䛭䛾〇㐀ᣐⅬ䜢ㄪᰝ䛩䜛䚹䛥䜙䛻䚸䛭䛾ᆅᇦ䛷స䜚ฟ䛥䜜䜛౯್䛻䛴䛔䛶ホ౯䛩䜛䚹WP1: ᑗ᮶䛾㝣ୖ㢼ຊ䛾ண

䠄NREL䠅

5/19• ⬺Ⅳ⣲໬䛩䜛㟁ຊ㒊㛛䛻䛚䛡䜛ᑗ᮶䛾㝣ୖ㢼ຊ䛻㛵䛩䜛ᢏ⾡䚸❧ᆅ㑅ᢥ䚸〇㐀䚸౯್䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸ᑓ㛛ᐙ䜈䛾䝠䜰䝸䞁䜾䛻䜘䜚ண 䛩䜛䚹• 䝠䜰䝸䞁䜾䝅䞊䝖䛜᭱⤊Ỵᐃ䛧䚸12᭶ୖ᪪䛻䜲䞁䝍䝡䝳䞊䜢㛤ጞ䛧䚸᮶ᖺ䛻ㄽᩥ䛻䜎䛸䜑䜛ணᐃ䚹 ❧ᆅ㑅ᢥ䛻䛴䛔䛶• ❧ᆅ㑅ᢥ䛾せᅉ䠄㎰ᴗ䚸㔝⏕ື≀䚸⯟✵䝺䞊䝎䚸♫఍ᇶ┙䚸ᬒほ䚸」㞧ᆅᙧ➼䠅/ඹྠ❧ᆅ䛻䛴䛔䛶• ኱ᆺ㢼㌴䠄5MW䠅䛜ᮃ䜎䛧䛔䛛䚸ᑠ䛥䛔㢼㌴䠄2.5MW䠅䛜ᮃ䜎䛧䛔䛛• 㝣ୖ㢼ຊ䛾Ⓨᒎ䛻ᐤ୚䛩䜛ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ䠄ᕷẸ㢼㌴䚸Ỉ⣲䚸⵳㟁ụ䚸PV䚸ᨻ⟇➼䠅• ௒ᚋ10ᖺ㛫䛾㝣ୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾ᡂ㛗䛾㜼ᐖせᅉ 〇㐀䛻䛴䛔䛶
• 〇㐀ᣑ኱䛻ᚲせ䛺ᢏ⾡䠄㢼㌴䛾኱䛝䛥䚸⮬ື໬䚸䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛾ᵓ⠏䚸㍺㏦ᢏ⾡ etc. 䠅 ౯್䛻䛴䛔䛶• 㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾౯್ྥୖ䛻ᚲせ䛺ᢏ⾡䠄పฟຊẚ䛾㢼㌴䚸䝕䞊䝍ศᯒᢏ⾡䚸⵳㟁ụే⏝䚸Ỉ⣲ే⏝➼䠅

WP2: ᢏ⾡㠉᪂䛻䜘䜛䝁䝇䝖పῶ䞉౯್ྥୖ䠄UTokyo䠅

6/19• Ⓨ⾲⪅䛜ᥦ᱌䛩䜛䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹䛾ㄽᩥ䜢ฟ∧䛧䛯䚹• ௒ᚋ䚸䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛯ᢏ⾡㠉᪂䛻䜘䜛䝁䝇䝖పῶ㔞䛾ホ౯䜢ᐇ᪋䛧䚸ඹྠㄽᩥ䜢2025ᖺᮎ䜎䛷䛻ฟ∧ணᐃ䚹
Y. Kikuchi, T. Ishihara, Assessment of capital expenditure for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms
using probabilistic engineering cost model, Applied Energy, 341, 120912, 2023

ඹྠㄽᩥ䛾ィ⏬
• 䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹䛾䜘䜚ໟᣓⓗ䛺䝺䝡䝳䞊• 䜲䜼䝸䝇௨እ䛾ᅜ䛷䛾᳨ド• ᭱᪂ᢏ⾡䛻䜘䜛䝁䝇䝖పῶศᯒ

WP3: 䝁䝇䝖䞉౯್䞉㔠⼥䛾୙☜䛛䛥 䠄NREL䠅

7/19• Task26䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄪᰝ䛾䜎䛸䜑䛸䛧䛶䚸CfDไᗘ䠄Contracts for Difference䠖ᕪ㢠Ỵ῭ዎ⣙䠅䛻䛚䛡䜛䝸䝇䜽䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䛻㛵䛩䜛ㄽᩥ䛜2023ᖺ12᭶䛻ฟ∧䛥䜜䛯䚹• 䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛯୙☜䛛䛥ホ౯䜢⾜䛖䛣䛸䛜᳨ウ䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹
Beiter, P., Guillet, J., Jansen, M. et al. The enduring roleof contracts for difference in risk management andmarket creation for renewables. Nat Energy 9, 20–26(2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01401-w• CfDไᗘ䛿⿵ຓ㔠䛸ΰྠ䛥䜜䜛䛣䛸䛜ከ䛔䛜䚸⿵ຓ㔠䛾ᙺ๭䛿ᮏ㉁ⓗ䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸㛗ᮇ䛻䜟䛯䛳䛶Ᏻᐃⓗ䛺౯᱁䛷㟁ຊ䜢౪⤥䛩䜛ᕷሙ䜢๰ฟ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛻䜘䜛䝸䝇䜽䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖䛾ᙺ๭䜢ᯝ䛯䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹

WP4: ⌧ᅾ䛸㐣ཤ䛾㝣ୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾䝁䝇䝖ศᯒ䠄NREL䠅• Data Viewer䛜᭦᪂䛥䜜䚸ぢ䜔䛩䛥䛜ᨵၿ䛥䜜䛯䚹• Task26䛻ᘬ䛝⥆䛝䚸ྛᅜ䛾㝣ୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾䝁䝇䝖䜢཰㞟䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹᪥ᮏ䛾≧ἣ• ᑟධ㔞䛻㛵䛩䜛බⓗ㈨ᩱ䛜Ꮡᅾ䛧䛺䛔䛯䜑䚸JWPA䛾ሗ࿌್䜢ᇶ䛻䚸ẖᖺᘓタ䛥䜜䛯Ⓨ㟁ᡤ䛾䝩䞊䝮䝨䞊䝆䜢ㄪᰝ䛧䚸ᥦฟ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹• Ⓨ㟁ᡤ䛾㢼㏿䛿NeoWinds䜢⏝䛔䛶ホ౯䚹• CAPEX䞉OPEX䛿ㄪ㐩౯᱁➼⟬ᐃጤဨ఍䛾㈨ᩱ䜢ᇶ䛻ホ౯䚹᭱኱್䞉᭱ᑠ್䞉୰ኸ್䛿୙᫂䚹

https://iea-wind.org/task53/task-53-data-viewer/8/19

WP5: Ỉ⣲䛜㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾౯᱁䛻ཬ䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䠄EA Analysis䠅

9/19• BALMORE䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛶䚸Ỉ⣲䛾ᑟධ䛜㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛸Ỉ⣲䛾౯᱁䛻ཬ䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䜢ホ౯• ᮶ᖺ䛾ኟ䜎䛷䛻ሗ࿌᭩䜢䜎䛸䜑䜛ணᐃศᯒ౛:- Case I: 100%䜢㟁ຊ䛸䛧䛶㏦㟁
- Case II: Ỉ⣲䛸㟁ຊ䛻༙ศ䛪䛴䛻ศ䛡䛶㏦㟁
- Case III: 100%䜢Ỉ⣲䛸䛧䛶㏦㟁
- Case IV: Ỉ⣲䛾᭱㐺䛺㓄ศ䜢ホ౯䛩䜛䜿䞊䝇

DK, NL – 4 GW offshore wind in 2035,
10 GW in 2050
DE, GB – 6 GW offshore wind in 2035,
12 GW in 2050
BE – 6 GW in 2035

WP6: 䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛾Ⓨᒎ䛸㟂せศᯒ 䠄JRC䠅

10/19• 䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻㛵䛩䜛䝕䞊䝍䝧䞊䝇䜢ศᯒ䛩䜛䛸䛸䜒䛻䚸⿵ຓ㔠䞉〇㐀ᣐⅬ䞉㞠⏝⪅ᩘ䞉䝺䜰䜰䞊䝇᭷↓➼䜢⪃៖䛧䚸㟂せ䜢‶䛯䛩ᑗ᮶䛾䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛾Ⓨᒎ䛻ᚲせ䛺
ᢞ㈨㢠䜔㞀ቨせᅉ䜢ศᯒ䛩䜛䚹᮶ᖺᮎ䛻ሗ࿌᭩䜢᏶ᡂ䛩䜛ணᐃ䚹䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻䛚䛡䜛ᕤሙᩘ䝕䞊䝍䝧䞊䝇䛻ᇶ䛵䛟䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁ศᯒ౛

Source: JRC based on WindEurope/WoodMackenzie, 2021

䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛾ᑗ᮶㟂せBlue nodes EU, Red nodes China, Grey nodes RoW
Source: JRC, 2022

➨䠎ᅇධᮐ⤖ᯝ

11/19• 2023ᖺ12᭶23᪥䚸ᾏὒ෌⏕ྍ⬟䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊Ⓨ㟁タഛᩚഛಁ㐍༊ᇦ䛷䛒䜛3ᾏᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛㑅ᐃ஦ᴗ⪅䜢Ⓨ⾲䛧䛯䚹• 2ᾏᇦ䛷䛿䝊䝻䝥䝺䝭䜰䝮Ỉ‽䛷䛒䜛3෇/kWh䛷ⴠᮐ䛥䜜䛯䚹㑅ᐃ஦ᴗ⪅䛾౪⤥౯᱁⛅⏣┴⏨㮵ᕷ䚸₲ୖᕷཬ䜃⛅⏣ᕷἈ

3෇/kWh᪂₲┴ᮧୖᕷཬ䜃⫾ෆᕷἈ

3෇/kWh㛗ᓮ┴すᾏᕷỤᓥἈ22.18෇/kWhhttps://www.meti.go.jp/press/2023/12/20231213003/20231213003-1.pdf 䜘䜚సᡂhttps://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/santeii/pdf/080_b02_00.pdf

ධᮐ䛻㛵䛩䜛Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ䠖 ධᮐ౯᱁䛾ศᯒ᪉ἲ• 2020ᖺ䛻Ḣᕞ䛷䛾ධᮐ⤖ᯝ䛾ẚ㍑䛻㛵䛩䜛ㄽᩥ䛜ฟ∧䛥䜜䛯䚹• ㆟ㄽ䛾䛯䜑䛻䚸ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛཰┈䠄Revenue䠅䛾ẚ㍑䛜⾜䜟䜜䛯䚹Jansen, M., Staffell, I., Kitzing, L. et al. Offshore
wind competitiveness in mature markets without
subsidy. Nat Energy 5, 614–622 (2020).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2

12/19

䠨䠮䠲䠡ᣦᶆ䛾ᥦ᱌

13/19

Beiter, Philipp and Kitzing, Lena and Spitsen, Paul and Noonan, Miriam and Berkhout, Volker
and Kikuchi, Yuka, Toward Global Comparability in Renewable Energy Procurement, 2021.
Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3770991

Levelized Revenue and Value of Electricity‫ ܧܱܴܮ‬൅ ‫ ܸܶܮ‬൅ ‫ ܸܦܫܮ‬ൌ ‫ܧܱܥܮ ؠ ܧܸܴܮ‬௘௤‫ܧܱܴܮ‬䠖Levelized revenue of energy
capture all possible revenue streams from energy
production and capacity provision‫ܸܶܮ‬䠖Levelized tax value (⡿ᅜ䛾ᢞ㈨⛯᥍㝖ITC䠅
capture dedicated fiscal support received by a project in
the form of preferential tax and depreciation rules‫ܸܦܫܮ‬䠖Levelized infrastructure and development value䠄䝗䜲䝒䚸䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽䛷䛾㏦㟁⥺䛻ᑐ䛩䜛⿵ຓ䠅
capture the value of broader infrastructure anddevelopment expenditures that benefit a project
regardless of the paying entityධᮐ䛻㛵䛩䜛Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ䠖 ຾⪅䛾࿚䛔䛻㛵䛩䜛ศᯒ
S. Malleret, M. Jansen, A. S. Ladio, L. Kitzing, Winner’s curse or blessing? Thechanging profitability of offshore wind from auction to final investment decision, Preprintin 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4415948

14/19

ධᮐ䛻㛵䛩䜛Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ: ຾⪅䛾࿚䛔䛻㛵䛩䜛ศᯒ

15/19(S. Malleret et al., 2023)

ධᮐ䛻㛵䛩䜛Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ: ຾⪅䛾࿚䛔䛻㛵䛩䜛ศᯒ

16/19• 㟁ຊᕷሙ౯᱁䛾ືྥ䛿䚸ධᮐ㛤ദ᪥䛛䜙᭱⤊ⓗ䛺ᢞ㈨Ỵᐃ䠄FID䠅䜎䛷䛾㛫䛻䚸཰┈ᛶ䛻኱䛝䛺䝬䜲䝘䝇䛾ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜䛒䜛䚹ᮏㄽᩥ䛷䛿䚸䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖㛤Ⓨ⪅䛜㏆ᖺ䛾ධᮐ䛻䛚䛔䛶䛣䛾䝸䝇䜽䜢ㄆ㆑䛧䛶䛔䛯ྍ⬟ᛶ䜢♧၀䛩䜛䜒䛾䜢♧䛧䛯䚹• 䝁䞁䝔䜱䞁䝆䜵䞁䝅䞊䞉䝞䝑䝣䜯䞊䛿䚸ᑗ᮶䛾ᕷሙ౯᱁䛾୙฼䛺ᒎ㛤䛾ᙳ㡪䜢⦆࿴䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䚸㏆ᖺቑ㢠䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜䛒䜛䚹୺せ䛺ዎ⣙䛿FID䛾ᩘ䞄᭶๓䛻☜ᐃ䛧䛶䛔䜛䜘䛖䛷䛒䜛䛯䜑䚸䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖㛤Ⓨ⪅䛜䚸ⴠᮐᚋ䛾㟁ຊᕷሙ౯᱁ண 䛾୙฼䛺ᒎ㛤䜢⦆࿴䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䚸FID┤๓䛻ண᝿䛥䜜䜛ᦆኻ䜢タഛ౪⤥ᴗ⪅䜔ㄳ㈇ᴗ⪅䛻㌿᎑䛧䛯䛸䛔䛖඙ೃ䛿ぢ䜙䜜䛺䛛䛳䛯䚹• 䝕䝧䝻䝑䝟䞊䛿䚸ᮇᚅᢞ㈨཰┈⋡䛾పୗ䜢྾཰䛩䜛⬟ຊ䜢཯ᫎ䛧䛶䚸䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛾཰┈ᛶ䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ䝁䝇䝖䜢ㄪᩚ䛧䛯ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜䛒䜛䚹඲య䛸䛧䛶䚸ὒୖ㢼ຊ䜸䞊䜽䝅䝵䞁ⴠᮐᚋ䛾䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖᧔㏥䜢ᅇ㑊䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䝸䝇䜽⟶⌮ᡓ␎䛜⏝䛔䜙䜜䛯䜘䛖䛷䛒䜚䚸䛣䜜䛿Ḣᕞ䛾ὒୖ㢼ຊ⏘ᴗ䛻䛸䛳䛶೺඲䛺඙ೃ䛷䛒䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹• ᮏㄽᩥ䛿䚸᭱㏆䛾పධᮐ౯᱁䛷䜒䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛜᥇⟬䜢ྲྀ䜛䛻䛿༑ศ䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䜢♧䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸᪤ ᩥ⊩䛷ᥦ㉳䛥䜜䛯䛔䛟䛴䛛䛾ᠱᛕ䛻⟅䛘䜛䜒䛾䛷䛒䜛䚹䛥䜙䛻䚸ᡃ䚻䛾ᮏㄽᩥ䛿䚸ὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁㈨⏘䛾཰┈䛾ῶᑡഴྥ䛜䝁䝇䝖䛾ῶᑡ䜢཯ᫎ䛧䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䜢♧䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸䛣䜜䛿᭱㏆䛾⤖ㄽ䜢ᨭᣢ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹(S. Malleret et al., 2023)

ධᮐ䛻㛵䛩䜛Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ: ຾⪅䛾࿚䛔䛻㛵䛩䜛ศᯒ

17/19• ✚ᴟⓗ䛺ධᮐ䛿䚸ὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛻䛚䛡䜛຾⪅䛾࿚䛔䠄Winner'sCurse䠅䛾䝸䝇䜽䛾ቑ኱䚸䜂䛔䛶䛿཰┈ᛶ䛾⦰ᑠ䛻㐨䜢㛤䛟ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜䛒䜛䚹䛣䜜䛿䚸
ᢞ㈨ᐙ䛻䛸䛳䛶䛣䛾䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾㨩ຊ䜢పୗ䛥䛫䚸ᑗ᮶䛾ᡂ㛗䛻㞀ᐖ䜢䜒䛯䜙䛩ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜䛒䜛䚹• 䛣䛾⤖ᯝ䛿䚸ὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁ᡤ䛜ᘓタ䛥䜜䜛ᨻ⟇⎔ቃ䛾㔜せᛶ䜒ᙉㄪ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹ᡃ䚻䛾䜿䞊䝇䝇䝍䝕䜱䛿䚸ᕷሙ౯᱁䜈䛾䜶䜽䝇䝫䞊䝆䝱䞊䛻䜘䜛཰┈䝸䝇䜽䛜⌧ᐇ䛾䜒䛾䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䜢♧䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹• 䜸䝷䞁䝎䜔䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽䛾䜴䜲䞁䝗䝣䜯䞊䝮䛸ẚ㍑䛩䜛䛸䚸䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸ᮇᚅ཰┈ᛶ䛾ኚື䜒ᑠ䛥䛔䚹䛣䜜䛿䚸ධᮐⱥᅜ䛾䜿䞊䝇䝇䝍䝕䜱䛿౯᱁ண ኚື䛻ᑐ䛧䛶䜘䜚ᙉᅛ䛺䝡䝆䝛䝇䜿䞊䝇䜢ᐇド䛛䜙FID䜎䛷䛾ᮇ㛫䛜▷䛔䛣䛸䜔䚸ⱥᅜ䛾CfDᨭ᥼䝇䜻䞊䝮⮬య䛜䝸䝇䜽ᅇ㑊䛾ᛶ㉁䜢ᣢ䛳䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䜒୍ᅉ䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹• ⿵ຓ㔠䝊䝻䛾䜴䜱䞁䝗䝣䜯䞊䝮䛿䚸ᨭ᥼䝇䜻䞊䝮䜈䛾㏣ຍᐜ㔞䛾䝁䝇䝖䜢ᘬ䛝ୗ䛢䛯䛜䚸 ᨻ⟇❧᱌⪅䛾୰䛻䛿䚸ᢞ㈨䚸཰┈䚸㐠⏝䛾䝸䝇䜽䛜㧗䜎䜛䛸 WACC 䛜ୖ᪼䛧䚸䜂䛔䛶䛿ὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛾䝁䝇 䝖䛜ୖ᪼䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸䝛䝑䝖䝊䝻䜢㐩ᡂ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻
ᢞ㈨䛾䝸䝇䜽ᅇ㑊䜢⥅⥆䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢㑅ᢥ䛩䜛ே䜒䛔䜛䛰䜝䛖䚹䛣䛾䜘䛖䛺䝸䝇䜽䜢⟶⌮䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾ᨻ⟇ᡭẁ䛿䛔䛟䛴䛛䛒䜛䚹(S. Malleret et al., 2023)

䜘䜚䜘䛔ධᮐไᗘタィ䛻ྥ䛡䛯㆟ㄽ䛜⾜䜟䜜䛶䛔䜛ᾋయᘧὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁䛻㛵䛩䜛䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹⳥ᆅ⏤ె䠈▼ཎᏗ䠈〇㐀䛸᪋ᕤ᪉ἲ䜢⪃៖䛧䛯䝇䝟䞊ᆺᾋయᘧὒୖὒୖ㢼ຊⓎ㟁ᡤ䛾ᘓタ㈝ホ౯䠈᪥ᮏ㢼ຊ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊Ꮫ఍ㄽᩥ㞟䠈㻞㻜㻞㻠

18/19䜎䛸䜑19/19

• ᮶ᖺ䛻ᡂᯝ䛜ồ䜑䜙䜜䜛WP1䞉WP5䞉WP6䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸‽ഛẁ㝵䛜䜋䜌᏶஢䛧䚸ㄪᰝ䜔䝅䝭䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁䛾ᐇ⾜ẁ㝵䛻ධ䛳䛶䛔䜛• WP2䞉WP3䛻䛴䛔䛶䜒䚸ィ⏬䜢䜘䜚ヲ⣽䛻ワ䜑䛶䛔䜛ẁ㝵䛷䛒䜛• ᪥ᮏ䛿䚸WP2䛻䛚䛔䛶䚸䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䝸䞁䜾䝁䝇䝖䝰䝕䝹䜢᭦᪂䛧䚸᪂䛧䛔ᢏ⾡䛻䜘䜛䝁䝇䝖పῶຠᯝ䜢ホ౯䛩䜛ணᐃ• ᅜෆእ䛾ධᮐ➼䛻㛵䛩䜛⤖ᯝ䜢㝶᫬ඹ᭷䛧䚸Ḣᕞ䛷䛾㆟ㄽ䛾᝟ሗ཰㞟䜢⾜䛖䛸䛸䜒䛻䚸ᅜෆ䛾ศᯒ䛻཯ᫎ䛧䛶䛔䛟