ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬ǵ2002 ॷ 11 ೐˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱*⏎ᅊᅋਸՕഓɹృɌȦ᠅ʛ⏎** ˹͑Ͳ̝͞͹M͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡***ᭁǵᨆǵᗛǵ᝔⏋Is Singapore’s Economy Growth a Myth? :A New Productivity Analysis*
ABE Shigeyuki** and Shandre M. T HANGAVELU***
This paper studies the effects of the changing age composition and education of thelabor force on labor productivity growth in Singapore. A quality index was constructed
to estimate the effects of different age and educational groups on the labor productivity
growth. The results indicate that young workers with university degrees contributesignificantly to the labor productivity growth of the economy. However, older workers
between the ages of 40 and 49 have tended to increase their contribution to laborproductivity growth over time. In particular, the labor productivity growth tended to peak
between the ages of 30 and 39 in 1984-89, but between the ages of 40 and 44 in 1990-99.
This result suggests that older workers have become more productive as the economy
moved towards more skilled and knowledge-intensive production. However, the results
also suggest that productivity of older workers is lower in sectors undergoing rapid
structural change such as the manufacturing sector, as opposed to the less structurally
vulnerable sector such as the service sectors. It is a vital question, therefore, howSingapore reallocated types of labor among industries to optimize economic growth.

1ȅ͉ȁ̲ȁ͛ȁͅǵആˏ˻ˏᐁཕɹӦፈᅊɫȡɤɛ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ʢγᅠɹ IT έ໥ɴឿᖏʼʶɩᦏॷɗɹଁᬏȵᩞ‫׋‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏1997 ॷɹˏ˻ˏ‫׶‬ลɴȦɛʳմɻ⏋ആˏ˻ˏɹਸ਼ᦵɲᐁཕᇍࣙɻγᅠɹ໶ᇿˁᮃʠ⏋ɗɹᲞଁᬏˁɰȩៗᨾɐʳȴɻ⏋ᡴᠶɹʼȴʶʳɭɄʸɫȡɤɛ⏏Υᖔᇕɲៗᨾɻ⏋ᥥՏ୭‫ूك‬෌‫׋‬ˁ᧒ଁɌ⏋޺ᣂɹࢷԂˁ൰ࡎɴ⏋ଯ᝗ው᥊ˁɻȴʱ⏋ᅋ෌෯ᦶˁᲞ঎‫׋‬Ɍ⏋ᲞȦଯ᝗ᦽ๰რʪȭɹ⏋Პ঎ଁᬏˁ᧒ଁɌɛɭȦȩʢɹɫȡʸȩ⏏ɄȩɌɛ˵˪́˽͹˽̜ͻ*ೣዣɻయᨆህዀ࡝቉ድᢹជ֖ᩆ‫ݜ‬ᇻ቉ድ (B) (1)ȋˏ˻ˏɭ౗͹Ꭶ͹๘ɹᐁཕ͹య‫׋‬͹క໠͠Ͳ˪ɹᐵ‫غ‬ᇕ቉ድȍ⏃቉ድБᝠᓔ⏧ᭁᨆᗛ᝔⏆ɴʭʳ቉ድଁഗɹΥᨆɫȡʳ⏏
**ϴᨊ߂࡝ആ‫ˏ˻ˏ׫‬቉ድ́Ͳ̊ͻ⏋Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University***‫ܕ‬ጓ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡߂࡝⏋National University of Singapore

105ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬͠ͻˁ‫ۂ‬ШɌɛБᝠᇕయ჉ȵ⏋1993 ॷ 9 ೐ɴγᅠ᪃᝔ȵᇍᝠɌɛȏആˏ˻ˏɹߏᤄȑɫȡʳ⏏
᧟Ֆɲ͇˪ͦᐁཕకፑ⏋՟ፈ͹μፈఠᔒɲɰʍɹ‫מ‬Օɲହᣂɲɰ⏋Ȧʼʪʳ‫ݜ‬ኄᇕɲకፑȵ‫ܕع‬కঌɴʭʱተࡸɴࡸేɇʶɛɄɭȵɄɹߏᤄˁʢɛʰɌɛɭɌɩȦʳ⏏‫ܕع‬ɭʢ᧧ିᇕɲ
॑‫ݭ‬ЂԂకፑˁɭʱ⏋ɄɭɴᥥՏѦᦽకፑɻዛǾɹ০ɫᐁཕଁᬏɴࢊήɌɛɭɇʶʳ⏏˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɻʚɇɴɗɹઝ٢ɫӦፈᅊɫȡɤɛ⏏
ǵɄʶɴࢪɌɩ⏋˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳɻ 1994 ॷ⏋̶˝ͻ͠Ͳ͹ˏ̶˙ˏͻ̀ᏨɴȋʚʖʸɌɹˏ˻ˏᐁཕȍɭȦȩ‫ڪ‬ᙕᇕȴɦୱᇍᇕɲᠶయˁȦɠɻʦȼᇍᝠɌ⏋য়ಁɹᠶᠭɭɻԃȼᦥɹς৓ˁɌɛ⏏৳ᕶ᤹ɹៜᘽɫ⏋ȋˏ˻ˏɹᐁཕଁᬏˁʠȽʳᖂߧɴɻԳອˁ༟ʃɓȴȿʳਖឹȵȡ
1)ʳȍ ɭȦȩʭȩɴ⏋ᠶయᕶк਒ᰄ਒࣊ୱᇍᇕɫȡɤɛ⏏ᑈࢌɲ៟ᩄՕഓˁৄᅎɌɩ⏋Ё౗ɹആˏ˻ˏɹਸ਼ଁᬏɻᅊᅋਸɹΫ౥ɴគЊȿʰʶɛʢɹɫȡʳɭȦȩʭʱʢʞɌʸ⏋ᣂೣʦ֝ӈɭȦɤɛ႒ᇕହԂᩄȵਸ਼‫ވ‬ɌɛɄɭɴʭʳʢɹɫȡʳɭᠶɍɛ⏏ɇʰɴ⏋႒ᇕହԂᩄɹ‫֓ވ‬ȵЁ৿ɗʶʓɰ೚ʠɲȦɭɐʳɭ⏋Ʉɹਸ਼ଁᬏɻΥಁᇕჼᢒɫȡʱ⏋ᬏೝᇕɴჼ‫ܧ‬ɹʭȩɲᲞȦଁᬏრˁ୫ᐚɌᐚȿʳɭɻᓒȭɴȼȦɭς৓Ɍɛɹɫȡʳ⏏
ǵ⑳ˏ˻ˏɹృᖂू෌‫ࢃܕ‬ɹਸ਼ᦵɲᐁཕଁᬏɻ⏋1950 ॷБɹ̲̅˛̜ɹᐁཕଁᬏɭ‫ؾ‬෵ɴ⏋ᣂ྇ɹᐵ֪‫ڊ‬ɭȦȩឹ‫܍‬ɫʓɭ˃ɰᠦ౩ȵɦȦɩɌʚȩ⏏Ŕ⏃μᅭ⏆Ŕ႕ɴ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɹ˭ͻ˽ɻᰒᘿɫȡʳ⏏1966 ॷȴʰ 1990 ॷɴȦɛʳʚɫ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻॷॶ‫ܯ‬ɫࡸɴ 8.5 ⎾ɹᐁཕଁᬏˁ୫ᐚᇕɴ᧒ଁɌɩȲʱ⏋ɄʶɻᎦ‫ܕ‬ɹଁᬏრɹ 3 ҆ɹ̿ͻ˽ɴȡɛʳ⏏Ŕ⏃μᅭ⏆ŔɌȴɌ⏋ɄȩɌɛᐁཕᇕߏᤄʢ⏋ᐄ࣌ɹɭɄʸօઝू߅⏃ଯ᝗ᯊృʦᅊᅋ֟რɹఒ‫⏆ڵ‬ɫɻɲȼɩ⏋ɛʪʚɵ֗֐⏃ᣂ྇ɹᐵ֪‫⏆ڊ‬ɴ‫ݜ‬ɧȼʢɹɫȡɤɛ⏏⑶2) ᐚȦɩ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɫɻΥγБɹᬚɴ⏋֝ӈϺ‫ؤ‬ɻʓʖ҆‫ވ‬ɌɩȲʱ⏋ɄʶˁࢰഀɴȲȦɩᑵʱᦐɐɹɻέ‫خ‬ᔨɫȡʳɄɭ⏋Ё৿ΥγБɹᬚɴ⏋֝ӈϺ‫ؤ‬ɹʓɭ˃ɰȵ‫شަ׭‬ˁ୫ɦϺೳɴʭɤɩ෯ଁɇʶʳʭȩɴɲʳɄɭɲɰȡʱ਄ɲȦȴʰɫȡʳɭᡴᠶɌɛ⏏
ǵഗɛɌɩɗȩɫȡʸȩȴ⏱ Ʉɹࢸᠶɫɻ⏋֝ӈɹᣒᇕ޴‫׋‬ɭ֝ӈɹॷᶲ෯ଁɹ޴‫׋‬ɴʭɤɩ⏋కፑˁȩʚȼ᠛ࢷɐʶɽ⏋˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳʓɰੳ៎ᇕɴɲʰɑɭʢ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ȵɗɄɗɄɹᐁཕଁᬏˁ᧒ଁɫȷʳɄɭˁ⏋ਃഀɹᅊᅋਸՕഓɴ౩ኍᇕɴ֝ӈɹᣒᇕ޴‫׋‬ɭॷᶲ෯ଁˁ
ࢷԂɌɩࡸ៷ɐʳɄɭɴɐʳ⏏
ǵᲞᶲ‫׋‬ɻ᱗ཬ⏋ᯨ‫Ͳ˹⏋ܕ‬ˤͅͻ͡⏋‫ཱྀد‬ˁɻɍʠɭɌɛˏ˻ˏᡉ‫ܕ‬ɴɭɤɩᦏȦࢰഀተࡸɴሁᯆɐʳ‫ک‬ᰍɫȡʳ⏏Პᶲ‫׋‬ȵɐɐʞɭ⏋ჼ‫ܧ‬ɭປᥒɌɩʭʱࢹɲȦᗐॷ֝ӈ֐ȵʭʱ޽ȼɹᲞᶲᓔˁఌȭʳ෯ᦶɭɲʱ⏋ዒ‫ؚ‬ȵཝʱ⏋ᬏೝᇕɴɻଁᬏɴȴɁʱȵɫɩȼʳ⏏ృଯ᝗

1)2)౗ೣ᠝៱ɻ⏋P͹˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳʓȴᘿ⏋ጭάᖂ‫ھ‬ᇺ៱ȏˏ˻ˏǵଁ֒ʍɹᠩᰍȑଘ‫⏋ؚ‬12 ᯲␩˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳǵ
1995␭
⏏
˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳ␩1995: 20-21␭⏏

106ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱ɹᓃ਄ɴɻ࡝๴ɹᲞȦᗐॷ֝ӈ֐ɹ౅ȵ⏋ၓॷᓔʭʱ೑գɫȡʳɭȦȩࡸ៷቉ድʢȡʳ⏃ɛɭȭɽ⏋␩Clark and Splengler 1980; Bartel and Lichtenberg 1987␭⏆⏏Ϻᇕᣂೣ͐̚͡ɫɻ֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸɻ֓ᶲɴʭʱ⏋ɗɹᐁᱻɭ̜ͤͻ̢Ͳ˫ɴʭɤɩΫ౥ɐʳɭȦȩ␩Becker 1962␭⏏ɦʚʱ⏋֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸʍɹᢨ჉঎ɻ⏋ॷᶲ෯ଁ⏋ఠᔒອྈ⏋̜ͤͻ̢Ͳ˫ፈɴћࡔɌɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ⏏
ǵɄȩɌɛ֓ᶲɭᅊᅋਸɴɦȦɩɹయ჉ɻɗʶʓɰ޽ȼɲȦ⏏ˡ̠̋ɫɻ Chinloy␩1989␭ȵ֓ᶲɹᅊᅋਸ֟ഗɻ᠗ʠʰʶɲȦɭɌɩȦʳ⏏ɗɹΥ౅⏋Პ࡝๴˫͡ͻ̺ɻ֝ӈɹᣒȵᲞȼ⏋ᅊᅋਸʢᲞȦɭȦȩ⏏Medoff and Ibrahim␩1980␭ɻ֓ᶲɭᅊᅋਸɴɻ๭ɹሂᬠȵ᠗ʠʰʶʳɭȦȩȵ⏋ᅊᅋਸȵΫ౥ɐʳɹɻ 55 ๳ȴʰ 60 ๳ʚɫɫȡɤɩ⏋ɗʶГΫɹॷᶲɫɻжάɐʳɭɌɛ⏏Lazaear␩1990␭ɻॷᶲȵॶ‫ܯ‬ᅊᅋਸɴ৯ᯱˁήȭʳɄɭɻተȴɞȵ⏋ɗɹ౅‫ك‬ɻ‫غݭ‬ɴʭɤɩᅵɲʳɭɐʳ቉ድᐄഗˁ‫ݬ‬ٚɌɩȦʳ⏏
ǵˡ̠̋ɭ‫ؾ‬෵⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɫʢՏᅊრɭ๷ϭრȵɭʢɴжάɌɩ⏋Პᶲ‫׋‬ȵᰒ‫׋ܧ‬ɌɩȷɩȦʳ␩Shantakumar 1996␭⏏֓ᶲɴʭɤɩ⏋֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸȵжάɐʳɭɐʶɽ⏋Პᶲ‫׋‬ɻ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɹጫϝ֐ɴ߂ȷɲ͇˓̠˽ɹ৯ᯱˁ‫ؖ‬ʖɐɄɭɴɲʳ⏏ଯ᝗޴‫׋‬ɹ࿠ɌȦγᅠɫ⏋ၓॷ֝ӈᓔȵɗɹᐁᱻɭ̜ͤͻ̢Ͳ˫ˁ༎ȴɓɲȦᓷ‫ݭ‬ɴᦠȦʦʰʶʳɲʰɽ⏋ᅊᅋਸɹଁᬏɻȲʖɦȴɲȦ⏏
ǵɄȩɌɛ‫ک‬ᰍઝᡫȴʰ⏋Ʉɹᠶయɫɻ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɹᅊᅋਸଁᬏɴ‫ؖ‬ʖɐఠᔒɭॷᶲ
෯ଁɹ৯ᯱɴ့ဣˁȡɩʳ⏏ʚɑ⏋ఠᔒ ⑺ ॷᶲ෯ଁˁᓒૅɌɛ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ୭ฌˁ៟፤ɐ
ʳ⏏֝ӈಁᬚˁΥࡴɭɐʳɭΥ‫׬‬еɹᅊᅋɴࢪɌɩ⏋Პ࡝๴ɹ֝ӈᓔɹᢨ჉঎ɻж࡝๴ɹ֝ӈᓔʭʱᲞȼɲʳ⏏ɲɕɲʰృଯ᝗ɹᓃ਄ᔨ֐ɻఠᔒɴ๭ປёɐʳɭᓒȭʰʶʳȴʰɫȡʳ⏏‫ؾ‬෵ɴᐁᱻɹᬏȦၓᑇ֝ӈᓔɻᗐȦᯃၓᑇ֝ӈᓔʭʱᢨ჉঎ȵᲞȦɭᓒȭɩʭȦ⏏ᨆᬐաɴၓᑇ
֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸʍɹᢨ჉ˁʛɩ⏋˵ͻ̲˽෌ɭនᦶ෌ɹेᅵˁՕഓɌ⏋ɄɄȴʰৄȷՏɇʶʳ֝ӈకፑʍɹ‫ي‬ઝˁࢷȷՏɐ⏏ɄȩɌɛ࡝๴ɭॷᶲɴʭʳ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɹ᧓Ȧˁ౩ኍᇕɴࢷԂɌɩ⏋Პᶲ‫׋‬ɹ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɹᅊᅋਸଁᬏʍɹ৯ᯱˁధᩄᇕɴᠦ౩ɐʳɄɭȵɄɹᠶయɹᇿ
ᇕɲɹɫȡʳ⏏
ǵɄɹᠶయɹ෯ଁɻГάɹᦲʱɫȡʳ⏏๖፲ɫ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɹॷᶲ෯ଁɹ޴‫׋‬ɹࡸ઴ɭ̚ͻ̊ɴɦȦɩᠦ౩Ɍ⏋3 ፲ɫჿᠶᇕᔘಕ⏋4 ፲ɫ៟ཀྵᐄഗˁᡴᠶɌ⏋೎৿ɴᐄᠶˁᦚʏʳ⏏

2ȅΏϋ΄εȜσ͈ාႢࢹ଼͈་‫ا‬ǵ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɫʢᲞᶲ‫׋‬ɻተࡸɴᦽ˃ɫȦʳ⏏1990 ॷɭ 2000 ॷɹ́Ͳ˵˽ɴʭʳɭ⏋μеғɻɗʶəʶ 29 ๳⏋34 ๳ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏45 ๳ȴʰ 54 ๳ɹϺ‫ؤ‬ȵຘॷ 6.7⎾ɹრɫ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦɤɩȲʱ⏋15 ๳ȴʰ 24 ๳⏋ɗɌɩ 25 ๳ȴʰ 34 ๳ɹӈȷᇵʱɹϺ‫ؤ‬ɻ⏋ɗʶəʶ 0.7 ⎾⏋0.3 ⎾ɹრɫཝࢹɌɦɧȿɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ⏏ᝠ 1 ɻɄȩɌɛϺ‫ؤ‬ɹ޴‫׋‬ˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏
107

ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬

15 ๳ГάɹॷࢹϺ‫ؤ‬/֝ӈ֐Ϻ‫ؤ‬ɹւ‫( غ‬YDR) ɻ 1966 ॷГᭇཝࢹɌɩȦʳɹɴࢪɌɩ⏋ᓑॷϺ‫ؤ‬/֝ӈ֐Ϻ‫( ؤ‬ODR) ɻመࡸɴ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏YDR ɹཝࢹɹ˽̴ͻ̝ȵ ODR ɹ‫֓ވ‬ɹ˽̴ͻ̝ʭʱ᭬ɞɤɩᦵȦɄɭȴʰ⏋᝵ପ᰸Ϻ‫֝⏒ؤ‬ӈ֐Ϻ‫( ؤ‬TDR) ȵ 1966 ॷɴɻ 95.4 ⎾ɫȡɤɛɹȵ⏋1990 ॷɴɻ 47.7 ⎾ɴʚɫཝࢹɌɩȷɩȦʳ⏏ɄɹʭȩɴࢹࡎᲞᶲ‫׋‬ჼᢒȵ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɴჼՏɌɩȦʳ⏏౗ೣɴປʏʳɭ‫ک‬ᰍȵɲȦɭʢȦȭʳȵ⏋᧌ؑɭປᥒɐʳɭࢹࡎ‫׋‬ɹ౅ȵཉխɫȡʳɄɭȵጋȭʳ⏏ɠɲʛɴ౗ೣɹࢪਝɐʳ 1998 ॷɹధғɻ⏋YDR ȵ 24.1 ⎾⏋ODR ȵ 35.6 ⎾⏋ɗɌɩ TDR ɻ 59.7 ⎾ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏3)ǵϺ‫ؤ‬෯ଁȵɄɹʭȩɴ޴‫׋‬ɌɩȷɩȦʳɹɴɭʢɲɤɩ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɫɻ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ȵਸ਼ᦵɫȡʳ⏏Ʉɭɴនᦶ෌ɴȲȦɩ‫ܕ‬᭬ጫϝ֐ˁᐣ୫ɐʳɛʠɴᅋ෌ɹᲞ঎‫׋‬ȵᦽ᝔ɌɩȦʳ⏏1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ⏋޽‫ܕ‬᎛Н෌ȵᲞ˱˽̜ɹ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ȴʰЈɹˏ˻ˏᡉ‫ܕ‬ɴᦣ᧫Ɍ⏋ዷ༃‫׋‬ȵᇿጓɦʭȩɴɲɤɛ⏏ɄʶˁᬿȽɛʠɴʢ⏋នᦶ෌ɻᲞ঎‫⏋׋‬ɦʚʱ⏋ʭʱሾᡫᮃ
Ꮭᇕɲ౅‫ك‬ɴ᥊ழɓɊʳˁȭɲȼɲɤɛ⏏Ʉɹᐄഗ⏋Υᖔᇕɴនᦶ෌ɹ˹˙ˏȵᘺɠ⏋˵ͻ̲˽෌ɹ˹˙ˏȵ‫ވ‬ȭʳɄɭɭɲɤɛ⏏ࡸ᭬⏋GDP ɴɌʠʳនᦶ෌ɹւ‫غ‬ɻ⏋1966-73 ॷᬚɭ

ນ!1ȁΏϋ΄εȜσ͈૽࢛ࢹ଼
YDR
80.2
85.0
69.9
42.5
34.3

年
1957
1966
1970
1980
1990

ODR
7.2
10.4
10.3
11.6
13.4

TDR
87.4
95.4
80.2
54.1
47.7

1/ODR
13.9
9.6
9.7
8.6
7.6

ՏԎ⏧Shantakumar␩1996␭
໶⏧YDR⏮ॷࢹϺ‫⏃ؤ‬15 ๳Гά⏆⏒֝ӈ֐Ϻ‫⏃ؤ‬15-59 ๳⏆ǵǵODR⏮ᓑॷϺ‫⏃ؤ‬60 ๳ГΫ⏆⏒֝ӈ֐Ϻ‫⏃ؤ‬15-59 ๳⏆ǵǵTDR⏮YDR⏉ODR
ǵǵ1/ODR⏮ᓑॷ 1 ϺɴࢪɐʳᅊᅋॷᶲϺ‫ؤ‬
ນ!2ȁාႢ༆Ȇ‫ڠ‬Ⴄ༆ࡹဥൡࠗȇ1983!ා̥ͣ!1999!ා
ॷᶲաᮄᅎ˹˙ˏ⏃⎾⏆
1983-89
1990-99

15-24 ᱦ25.0
16.1

25-29 ᱦ18.8
16.0

30-39 ᱦ28.5
31.3

40-44 ᱦ8.8
13.2

45-54 ᱦ 55 ᱦએ਄
12.4
6.4
16.0
7.2

࡝๴աᮄᅎ˹˙ˏ⏃⎾⏆ήቇᱧೋ╬ᢎ⢒ ਛ╬ᢎ⢒ 㜞╬ᢎ⢒ᄢቇත

1983-89

21.1

30.8

31.2

11.4

5.5

1990-99

15.2

26.5

29.7

17.8

10.7

ՏԎ⏧Labour Force Survey, Ministry of Manpower, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆

3)ᐵ֭ংᐏ៟࣌ᐏ៟ᠭീᨆ֝ӈ֐ᐏ៟ᠩȋ֝ӈ֐ᠭീॷ‫ݬ‬ȍ2000 ॷႆɴʭʳ⏏

108ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱

1987-97 ॷᬚˁປᥒɐʳɭ⏋27 ⎾ȴʰ 25 ⎾ɴཝࢹɌɩȦʳ⏏ɗɹ‫ࢪؙ‬ɴ⏋ᩆᜨፈɹ˵ͻ̲˽෌ȵ‫ؾ‬ಁೝɴ 15 ⎾ȴʰ 29 ⎾ʍɭɗɹ˹˙ˏˁΫ౥ɇɓɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ␩Rao and Lee 1995␭⏏
ǵɄȩɌɛᅋ෌ɹ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɴࢪɌɩ⏋ࣃ෌෯ᦶʢʭʱЊ֓ѝғɹᲞȦᅋ෌ʍɭው᝔Ɍɩȷɛ⏏
ᐁཕԃкɫ֝ӈ֐ɹॷᶲ෯ଁˁᝠ 2 ɫʛʳɭ⏋15 ๳ȴʰ 29 ๳ɹ֝ӈᓔɻ 1983-89 ॷᬚɴɻ 44⎾ˁ‫װ‬ʠɩȦɛɹȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɫɻ 32 ⎾ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏ɗɹ‫ࢪؙ‬ɴ⏋30 ๳ȴʰ 54 ๳ɹ֝ӈᓔɻ 48 ⎾ȴʰ 60 ⎾ɴ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳɹȵᠧʛɭʶʳ⏏๖ɴ࡝๴ˁʛɩʛʳɭ⏋ɄɄɴʢ޴‫׋‬ȵʛʰʶʳ⏏ɐɲʼɠ⏋1983-89 ॷᬚɴປᥒɌɩ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻᲞ࡝๴֝ӈᓔȵਸ਼‫ވ‬Ɍ⏋ж࡝๴ɹ֝ӈᓔȵਸ਼ཝɌɩȦʳ⏏
ǵᐁཕԃкɫ֝ӈ֐ɹॷᶲ෯ଁȵ޴‫׋‬ɌɩȦʳɭȦȩɄɭɻ⏋ᅋ෌աɴʢ޴‫׋‬ȵȲɄɤɩȦʳɄɭˁኍ‫ڗ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏ɗȩɌɛ޴‫׋‬ɻᝠ 3 ɴኍɌɛ⏏នᦶ෌ᨆᬐɫɻ 1983-89 ॷᬚɴ 40 ๳ГΫɹ֝ӈᓔɹ˹˙ˏɻ 5.4 ⎾ɴɐȹɲȴɤɛɹȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ 8.2 ⎾ɴ‫ވ‬ȭɩȦʳ⏏‫ؾ‬෵ɴ˵ͻ̲˽෌ԃкɫɻ 11.7 ⎾ȴʰ 15.6 ⎾ɴ‫ވ‬ȭɩȦʳ⏏នᦶ෌ɫ 2.8⎾ͅ˓Ͳ̜ɹ‫֓ވ‬ɫȡʳ
ນ!3ȁႻ൱ႁ͈ාႢ༆ࢹ଼Ȫɓȫ
↥‫ޓ‬ᬺ

ᦼ㑆

⵾ㅧᬺ
ࠨ࡯ࡆࠬᬺ
‫ޓ‬㊄Ⲣ࡮ਇേ↥࡮଻㒾╬‫ޓ‬ㆇャ࡮ୖᐶ࡮ㅢା
‫␠࡮ࠖ࠹࠾ࡘࡒࠦޓ‬ળ࡮୘ੱࠨ࡯ࡆࠬ

15-29 ᱦ
13.8
8.3
18.2

30-39 ᱦ
8.2
8.7
11.2

40 ᱦએ਄
5.4
8.2
11.7

ว⸘

1983-89
1990-99
1983-89
1990-99
1983-89
1990-99
1983-89
1990-99
1983-89
1990-99

16.4
4.2
4.4
3.2
2.4
10.8
9.6

13.2
2.7
4.3
3.4
3.3
5.1
5.6

15.6
2.2
4.1
3.8
5.0
5.7
6.5

45.2
9.1
12.9
10.4
10.7
21.7
21.7

27.4
25.1
41.1

ՏԎ⏧Labour Force Survey, Ministry of Manpower, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆ນ 4ȁႻ൱ႁ͈‫ڠ‬Ⴄ༆ࢹ଼Ȫɓȫ
↥‫ޓ‬ᬺ
⵾ㅧᬺ
ࠨ࡯ࡆࠬᬺ
‫ޓ‬㊄Ⲣ࡮ਇേ↥࡮଻㒾╬‫ޓ‬ㆇャ࡮ୖᐶ࡮ㅢା
‫␠࡮ࠖ࠹࠾ࡘࡒࠦޓ‬ળ࡮୘ੱࠨ࡯ࡆࠬᦼ㑆ήቇᱧ ೋ╬ᢎ⢒ ਛ╬ᢎ⢒ 㜞╬ᢎ⢒ ᄢቇත
1983-89
5.7
10.9
7.6
2.3
0.1
1990-99
3.9
8.5
6.7
3.8
2.2
1983-89
6.7
9.1
14.2
7.5
3.3
1990-99
5.2
8.5
14.4
10.7
6.7
1983-89
1.0
1.2
3.5
2.0
1.2
1990-99
0.9
1.4
4.0
3.4
3.2
1990-99
2.3
3.3
3.3
1.0
0.3
1990-99
1.6
3.3
3.6
1.5
0.6
1983-89
3.4
4.6
7.3
4.5
1.8
1990-99
2.6
3.8
6.8
5.6
2.9

ՏԎ⏧Labour Force Survey, Ministry of Manpower, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆
109

ว⸘
27.2
25.1
40.8
42.5
9.1
13.0
10.2
10.7
21.7
21.7

ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬ɹɴປʏɩ⏋˵ͻ̲˽෌ɫɻ 3.9 ⎾ͅ˓Ͳ̜ɹ‫⏋֓ވ‬ሂࢪᇕɴɻនᦶ෌ȵ 53 ⎾ɹЭʃɫȡʳɹɴປʏɩ⏋˵ͻ̲˽෌ɻ 33 ⎾ɹЭʃɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏˵ͻ̲˽෌ɹᏳՕᰖɫʛʳɭ⏋ᩆᜨ͹έ֪ᅋ͹ѳ᭝ፈɫɹЭʃȵᘿɌȦ⏏
ǵ๖ɴ࡝๴ɭȦȩ᥍ɫ֝ӈ֐ɹ෯ଁ޴‫׋‬ˁʛɩʛʭȩ⏃ᝠ 4⏆⏏ᐁཕԃкɴɦȦɩɻᝠ 2 ɫʛɛɭȲʱ⏋Პ࡝๴‫׋‬ȵᦽ᝔ɌɩȷɩȦʳ⏏Ʉʶˁᨆᬐաɴʛʳɭ⏋នᦶ෌ɭປʏɩ⏋˵ͻ̲˽෌ʍɹᲞ࡝๴֝ӈᓔɹᮃμȵʛʰʶʳ⏏˵ͻ̲˽෌ɹμɫʢ⏋ᩆᜨ͹έ֪ᅋ͹ѳ᭝ፈᨆᬐɫɹ
ᮃμ⏋ɦȦɫ˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɫɹᮃμȵᘿɌȦ⏏
ǵɄɹʭȩɴ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɫɻመࡸɴࢹࡎᲞᶲ‫׋‬ȵᦽ᝔Ɍ⏋ᅋ෌෯ᦶɹ޴‫׋‬ɭɭʢɴ⏋ࣃ෌෯ᦶȵ⏋ॷᶲ⏋࡝๴ɹᯆɫ߂ȷɲ޴‫׋‬ˁᧅɁɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ⏏

3ȅ୆ॲ଻͈໦ଢ଼༹༷͂ΟȜΗ
3.1ȁࠗ௶༹༷
ǵɄɹᠶయɫɻ‫ݜ‬ೣᇕɴ Chinloy␩1989␭ɹர‫ڟ‬ɌɛଁᬏЦ៟ɹଝ໬ˁᅎȦɩ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɹॷᶲɭ࡝๴ɹ֝ӈᅊᅋਸଁᬏɴήȭʳ৯ᯱˁՕഓɐʳ⏏႕ፆɐʏȷɻ⏋֝ӈହԂɴɦȦɩᣒᇕ޴‫׋‬ˁᓒૅɌɛృɛɲ୭ฌˁсଁɌɛɄɭɫȡʳ⏏Гάɹჿᠶ͐̚͡ɫɻ⏋࡭ԃጫϝɹЕࡴˁ4)Ȳȷ⏋֝ӈହԂɻɗɹᭉᅠᅊᅋ֐ɴਝɍɛᣀᩆȵఌଡʼʶʳɭɌɛ⏏
ǵᅊᅋᬠధˁ⏋Y⏮f (D, XL+1, ..., XN , A)(1)ɭɐʳ⏏ɄɄɫ⏋Y ɻᅊᅋᩄɫȡʱ⏋XL+1 , ..., XN ɻ֝ӈГ޺ɹହԂ႒⏋ɗɌɩ A ɻଯ᝗ˁᝠɐ
޴ధɫȡʳ⏏֝ӈହԂᩄ୭ฌɻ๖ɹʭȩɴࡴᒶɇʶʳ⏏
D⏮D(X1, X2 ... XL)ɄɄɫ⏋Xi ɻ i ̊˓̺ɹ֝ӈହԂɫȡʳ⏏
ǵᐵᮄᅎɻ๖ɹʭȩɴࡴᒶɐʳ⏏
E⏮Σ Xi, i⏮1, ..., L(2)ɗɌɩ⏋ᮄᅎɴఌଡʼʶʳᣀᩆᐵᰎɻ⏋C⏮Σ XiWi , i⏮1, ..., L

4)

(3)

ɄɹЕࡴɻ৔ɐȹʳȴʢɌʶɲȦȵ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɻЈɹˏ˻ˏᡉ‫ܕ‬ɴປʏɩʢ֝ӈᓔɹЈ෌ዛʍɹው֪ȵ༎ᇍɫȡʱ⏋Ʉɭɴ 5 ॷ⏋10 ॷ‫׬‬еɫɹ޴‫׋‬ˁᓒȭʳ‫غݭ‬ɴɻ⏋࡭ԃጫϝɹЕࡴˁȲȦɩʢ‫ک‬ᰍȵɲȦɭᓒȭʳ⏏

110ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱ɄɄɫ Wi ɻ i ᅱᇿɹ֝ӈହԂɴࢪɌɩఌଡʼʶʳᣀᩆɫȡʳ⏏i ᅱᇿɹ֝ӈɹ‫؝‬ȿ‫؜‬ʳᣀᩆɹԃᣀᩆɹປრ si ɻɗʶʪȭ⏋si⏮

XiWi
ɭɲʳ⏏
C

ǵ࡭ԃጫϝ॑‫ݭ‬ɭᅊᅋᬠధɹΥ๖‫ؾ‬๖ˁЕࡴɐʳɭ⏋Xi ɴᬠɐʳ D ɹᮛឹৗ֐ਸɭ֝ӈՕᨗრɻፈɌȼɲʳ⏏Ʉɹ‫֝⏋غݭ‬ӈହԂᩄ୭ฌ d ɻ d⏮Σ si xi ɭɲʳ⏏ɄɄɫ⏋xi ɻ i ᅱᇿɹ֝ӈହԂɹଁᬏრɫȡʳ⏏ହԂɻΥ๖‫ؾ‬๖ȵЕࡴɇʶɩȦʳɹɫ⏋Ʉʶɻɇʰɴ๖ɹʭȩɴೆȿ
ʳ⏏
D⏮ED*

X1 X2

XL

( E , E , ... , E )⏮ED*(b ,..., b )
1

(4)

L

ɄɄɫ⏋D* ȵ֝ӈɹᣒɹ୭ฌɫ⏋bi ȵᮄᅎ˹˙ˏɫȡʳ⏏Ʉɹ֝ӈɹᣒɹ୭ฌɻɇʰɴ๖ɹʭȩɴࡴᒶɫȷʳ⏏
D*(b1 ,..., bL)⏮

D
E

(4Ř)

ǵՕᨗრɭ‫ؾ‬ɍʭȩɴ⏋ᮄᅎ˹˙ˏʢɗɹ‫غ‬៟ɻ 1 ɴɲʳ⏏Ʉɹᣒᇕ˓Ͳ̒̚˪˽ɻ๖ɹʭȩɴៗᨾɐʳ⏏D* ȵ 1 ɹઝ٢ɻ⏋ᐵ֝ӈହԂȵᐵᮄᅎɴፈɌȼ⏋֝ӈɹᣒɴेȵɲȦɭȦȩɄɭɫȡʳ⏏࡝๴ʦၓᑇɴʭʳ֝ӈᓔɹᣒᇕेȵȡʱ⏋ᮄᅎГΫɴ֝ӈହԂȵ߂ȷȼɲʳ‫غݭ‬ȵȡʳ⏏ᣒᇕ୭ฌɻɄɹ‫ غݭ‬1 ʭʱ߂ȷȼɲʱ⏋ʈɦȩɹ៿ѝ⏋ɐɲʼɠ⏋ࡸ᭬ɹᮄᅎᩄˁɦ
ȴɤɩ៿ѝɐʳɭ⏋֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋʍɹᢨ჉ɻ᧌ࢸ៿ѝɴɲʳ⏏
ǵ๖ɴᐵᮄᅎˁଁᬏრɫᝠɐɭ⏋e⏮Σ bi xi ɭɲʳ⏏֝ӈɹᣒᇕଁᬏრ d* ɻ֝ӈɹᣒᇕ୭ฌ dɭᮄᅎଁᬏრɹेɫȡʳȴʰ⏋d*⏮Σ(si⏎bi)xi⏮Σ qi xi(5)ǵɄɹʭȩɴ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɻ i ᅱᇿɹହԂ႒ɴࢪɌɩ si⏎bi ɫኍɐɄɭȵɫȷʳ⏏i ᅱᇿɹዛᰖ
ɹ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɻ⏋ᣀᩆ˹˙ˏ si ɭᮄᅎ˹˙ˏ bi ȴʰɲʳ⏏ᣒ޴‫׋‬ɻ⏋Ɍɛȵɤɩ⏋ᣀᩆ˹˙ˏȵᮄᅎ˹˙ˏʭʱ߂ȷȿʶɽ̺͞˽ɴɲʳ⏏i ᅱᇿɹዛᰖɹ֝ӈɹᣒʍɹᢨ჉ɻᣒ޴‫׋‬ɭᮄᅎଁᬏრɹዩɫᝠɇʶʳ⏏
ǵଁᬏЦ៟ɹՕഓ̶ͤͻ͌ͩͻ˪ˁਝᅎɌɩ⏋ᅊᅋᲞɹଁᬏ y ɻ๖ɹʭȩɴᝠɇʶʳ⏏
NL

y⏮sL(e⏉áqi xi)⏉ á vi xi
i⏮1

(6)

i⏮L⏉1

5)

ɄɄɫ sL ɻ֝ӈ˹˙ˏɫȡʱ⏋vi ɻ֝ӈГ޺ɹЈɹହԂ႒ɹ˹˙ˏɫȡʳ⏏ ʚɛ a ɻᐵឹᏬᅊᅋਸɫȡʳ⏏ᅊᅋଁᬏɻ 3 ɦɹឹᏬɴՕៗɫȷʳ⏏ɐɲʼɠ⏋֝ӈହԂɹ‫⏃֓ވ‬Ʉʶɻᮄᅎ
ɭ֝ӈɹᣒɹ‫֓ވ‬ɴՕៗɫȷʳ⏆⏋֝ӈГ޺ɹᅊᅋឹᏬɹ‫⏋֓ވ‬ɗʶȴʰᐵឹᏬᅊᅋਸɹ‫֓ވ‬

5)ៀฐɴᬠɐʳ‫ؚ‬ዲέ޴ɭ࡭ԃጫϝ॑‫ݭ‬ˁЕࡴɐʳɭ⏋1⏎sL⏮Σ vi ȵଁጓɐʳ⏏

111

ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬ɫȡʳ⏏Ʉɹিɻʚɛ⏋๖ɹʭȩɴ౩ኍᇕɴ֝ӈᅊᅋਸˁᝠɐিɴ޴০ɐʳɄɭȵɫȷʳ⏏
LNy⏎e⏮sLáqi xi⏉ á vi(xi⏎e)⏉a
i⏮1

(7)

i⏮L⏉1

ǵГΫɹ̶ͤͻ͌ͩͻ˪ˁᅎȦʳɄɭɴʭʱ⏋ॷᶲ෯ଁɹ޴‫׋‬ɭ࡝๴ɹ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɴήȭʳ৯ᯱˁ⏋֝ӈɹᣒᇕ֟ഗɭȦȩɄɭˁᦲɍɩՕഓɐʳɄɭȵ‫خ‬ᔨɭɲʳ⏏ៜȦȴȭʶɽ⏋ॷᶲɭఠᔒɴᬠɌɩաɹᣒᇕ˓Ͳ̒̚˪˽ˁ៟፤ɐʳɄɭɴʭʱ⏋֝ӈᅊᅋਸʍɹఠᔒɭॷᶲɹ৯ᯱ
ˁ៎࢘ɐʳɄɭȵɫȷʳ⏏
ǵॷᶲɴʭʳ֝ӈɹᣒɹ‫ك‬Ϋɻ๖ɹʭȩɴ៟፤ɐʳ⏏ʚɑ⏋j ɫॷᶲˁ⏋h ɫఠᔒˁᝠɐɄɭ
ɴɌʭȩ⏏ॷᶲɴʭʳᐵᮄᅎɻɌɛȵɤɩ⏋࡝๴˫͡ͻ̺ˁ‫غ‬៟ɐʳɄɭɴʭɤɩ៟፤ɫȷ
ʳ⏏ɐɲʼɠ⏋H

Xj⏮áXjh,ǵj⏮1, ..., J

(8)

h=1

‫ؾ‬෵ɴ⏋࡝๴Ʌɭɹᐵᮄᅎɻ⏋ॷᶲɴʭʳᐵᮄᅎˁ‫غ‬៟ɐʳɄɭɴʭɤɩ៟፤ɫȷʳ⏏ɐɲʼɠ⏋JXh⏮áXjh, ǵh⏮1, ..., H

(9)

j=1

֝ӈɹᣒʍɹ j ᅱᇿɹॷᶲ᭥Ꮹɹᢨ჉ɻ⏋zj⏮qj xj,ǵ j⏮1, ..., J(10)ɫᝠɐɄɭȵɫȷ⏋h ᅱᇿɹ࡝๴᭥Ꮹɹᢨ჉ɻ⏋nh⏮qh xh, ǵh⏮1, ..., H(11)ɫᝠɐɄɭȵɫȷʳ⏏ɄɄɫ⏋֝ӈɹᣒɹ˗˙˓̜⏋qj ɭ qk ɻ (5) িɹʭȩɴ៟፤ɐʳ⏏Ʉɹ‫֝⏋غݭ‬ӈɹᣒɹଁᬏɻఠᔒɭॷᶲɹᐵ‫ٮ‬ɫᝠɐ⏏
d*⏮ázj⏉ánh
j

(12)

h

ǵ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɹଁᬏʢ (7) িɭ‫ؾ‬෵ɴ៟፤ȵ‫خ‬ᔨɫȡʳ⏏

[

J

H

]

N

y⏎e⏮sL ázj⏉ánh ⏉ á vi(xi⏎e)⏉a
j⏮1

h⏮1

(13)

i⏮L⏉1

3.2ȁΟȜΗǵೣᠶయɫɹ̚ͻ̊ɹೝᬚɻ 1983 ॷȴʰ 1999 ॷʚɫɫȡʳ⏏ᣂೣହᣂ⏋Њ֓ѝғ⏋̶ͤ̚ͻ̊ͻ⏋ᣂೣ˽̜̒˪̶ͤ̚ͻ̊ͻፈɻ Yearbook of Statistics, Singapore（‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆ȴʰɭɤɛ⏏
֝ӈɴᬠɐʳ̚ͻ̊⏋ɐɲʼɠᮄᅎ⏋ॷᶲա⏋࡝๴ա೐ᰎଘ਄ɻᝠ 5 ɴʢȡʳʭȩɴ⏋Labour112ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱

ນ!5ȁႻ൱͈΃ΞΌςȜॷᶲ˫͡ͻ̺
15-24 ๳25-29 ๳30-39 ๳40-44 ๳45-54 ๳55 ๳ГΫ

࡝ǵǵ๴ံ࡝๴ʢɌȼɻ՟ፈఠᔒμᦡ՟ፈఠᔒʢɌȼɻμፈఠᔒμᦡ
μፈఠᔒ
Პፈఠᔒ
߂࡝‫ר‬

ॶ‫ܯ‬೐ᰎଘ਄⏃S⎼⏆
500
700
900
1,250
1,750
2,250
2,750
5,000 ГΫ

Force Survey ɭ Profile of the Labour Force of Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆ˁؒᓒɴɌɛ⏏ዒৄȷմɹॷ
ᶲա͹࡝๴ա೐ᰎଘ਄ɴɦȦɩɻ⏋ɛɭȭɽ⏋S⎼⏃˹Ͳˤͅͻ̝͡͡⏆400⑯S⎼599⏋S⎼600⑯
S⎼799 ɭȦȩଘ਄ͤͲ˻ɫኍɇʶɩȦʳɴɐȹɲȦɹɫ⏋ଘ਄ͤͲ˻ȵ S⎼400⑯S⎼599 ɹ‫ݭ‬‫غ‬ɴɻɗɹॶ‫ܯ‬ଘ਄ɭɌɩ S⎼500 ˁᅎȦɩ៟፤Ɍɛ⏃ᝠ 5 ɹॶ‫ܯ‬೐ᰎଘ਄⏆⏏
ǵᣂೣ˽̜̒˪ɹ̚ͻ̊ɻ Rao and Lee␩1995␭ˁьɤɛȵ⏋1993 ॷʚɫɴ̚ͻ̊ɻᭉʰʶɩȦ6)ɛ⏏ɗʶʪȭ⏋Rao and Lee ɹᣂೣཝᓛრˁᅎȦ Perpetual Inventory Method⏃PI ໬⏆ ˁьɤɩ⏋

1995 ॷʚɫ޺୻Ɍɛ⏏ᨆᬐաᣂೣ˽̜̒˪ɻ Report of Services⏃‫ॷع‬ႆ⏆ˁᅎȦɛ⏏Ʉɹ‫ݬ‬ٚೆɻ‫ࡴܔ‬ᣂᅋఌՏɭᏤ‫ࡴܔ‬ᣂᅋѝғȵգᅎɫȷʳ⏏๖ɹˡ̘˳͠ɫȡʳ⏏‫⏋ܩܤ‬ল႒⏋᧊ᦢล۬⏋ลඁ៯Һɫȡʳ⏏ɐʏɩɹ̚ͻ̊ɻ 1985 ॷѝൔɹʢɹɫȡʳ⏏
ǵॷᶲա͹࡝๴ա͹ᨆᬐաᮄᅎ̚ͻ̊ɻ 1983 ॷȴʰ 1999 ॷʚɫɹ̚ͻ̊ɻࡔ‫ܧ‬ɐʳȵ⏋‫ؾ‬෵ɹ೐ᰎଘ਄ɻգᅎɫȷɲȦ⏏Ɍɛȵɤɩ⏋๖‫ڵ‬ፑɭɌɩ⏋ଂǾɻᐁཕԃкɹ೐ᰎଘ਄ɹॶ‫ܯ‬ғˁьɤɛ⏏ᨆᬐաɴʛʶɽଘ਄ɹेȵȡʳȴʢɌʶɲȦȵ⏋֝ӈɻᨆᬐᬚɫᕶᅓɴ֪ȼɭȦȩЕࡴ⏃࡭ԃጫϝɹЕࡴ⏆ȴʰ⏋‫ؾ‬ɍॷᶲɫ࡝๴ɫȡʶɽɗɹॶ‫ܯ‬ᣀᩆɻɰɹᨆᬐɫȡʶ‫ؾ‬ɍɭЕࡴɌɛɹɫȡʳ⏏

4ȅଔȁ೰ȁࠫȁ‫ض‬
4.1ȁႻ൱୆ॲ଻
ǵॷᶲա͹࡝๴ա֝ӈ֐ɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗɻᝠ 6 ɴኍɇʶɩȦʳ⏏ॷᶲɴʭʳᣒ޴‫֟׋‬ഗɻ
1990-99 ॷɴɦȦɩɻ 40 ๳ȴʰ 54 ๳ɹॷᶲ˫͡ͻ̺ɹ֝ӈᓔɹᢨ჉ȵᘿɌȦ⏏40 ๳ȴʰ 44
๳ɭ 45 ๳ȴʰ 54 ๳ɹ˫͡ͻ̺ˁʛɩʛʳɭɄɹᣒ޴‫֟׋‬ഗɻ 1984-89 ॷɭ 1990-99 ॷˁປʏʳɭ⏋ɗʶəʶ 0.17 ⎾ȴʰ 0.2 ⎾⏋0.1 ⎾ȴʰ 0.15 ⎾ɴ‫ވ‬ȭɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ⏏ɗʶɴ‫ؙ‬Ɍɩ⏋ᗐॷࣝɹᢨ჉ɻжάɌɩȦʳ⏏15 ๳ȴʰ 29 ๳ɹ˫͡ͻ̺ɫȦȭɽ⏋0.33 ⎾ȴʰ 0.16 ⎾ɴཝࢹ

6)

PI ໬ɴᬠɌɩɻ Goldsmith␩1951␭ˁؒ၇ɹɄɭ.

113ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬Ɍ⏋30 ๳ȴʰ 39 ๳ɹ˫͡ͻ̺ɫɻ⏋0.39 ⎾ȴʰ 0.17 ⎾ɴཝࢹɌɛ⏏
ǵЁʁɭɦᖂ٢ཉȦɹɻ⏋1984-89 ॷᬚɴɻᣒ޴‫֟׋‬ഗɻ 30 ๳ȴʰ 39 ๳᭥Ꮹɫ̴ͻ˪ɭɲɤɛȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻɗʶȵ 40 ๳ȴʰ 44 ๳᭥Ꮹɫ̴ͻ˪ɭɲɤɛɄɭɫȡʳ⏏ɄɹɄɭɻ
ၓॷ֝ӈᓔɹ౅ȵ 1984-89 ॷᬚɴປʏɩ 1990-99 ॷᬚɹ౅ȵ⏋ృଯ᝗ɴ᯶ਝɌ⏋ᅊᅋਸˁᲞʠ
ɩȦʳɭȦȩɄɭˁઝ٢ɌɩȦʳ⏏ʚɛ 1985-86 ॷᬚɹಕຩ৿ᦡГᭇᣂೣᙢዩრȵᘺɠᦉʞɴ
ɦʶɩ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗɻఒ‫ڵ‬ɌɛɭȦȭʳ⏏ᣂೣᙢዩრȵᘺɠᦉ˃ɞɄɭɴʭʱ⏋ᐁᱻʦ࡝ᓃȵᅊᅋਸɹອྈˁᲞʠʳȦʼʪʳ learning-by-doing ֟ഗȵ 1984-89 ॷᬚɴປʏ 1990-99 ॷᬚɹ౅ȵᲞȼɲɤɛɭᓒȭʰʶʳ⏏ɲɕɲʰ⏋֝ӈᓔɴɭɤɩɻృଯ᝗ˁᓃ਄ɐʳɹɴ‫מ‬ՕɴྈҺೝᬚȵʢɩɛɭᓒȭʰʶʳȴʰɫȡʳ⏏
ǵఠᔒɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹᩂឹਸɻ⏋߂࡝‫ר‬ɹ‫غݭ‬᭬ɞɤɩȦʳ⏏1984-89 ॷᬚɻ 0.71 ⎾ɹᢨ჉঎ɫ
ȡɤɛɹȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ 1.42 ⎾ɭΫ౥ɌɩȦʳ⏏ࢰഀɹᐁཕଁᬏɴɭɤɩ⏋ሾᡫɹᩂឹ
ਸ⏋ϺᇕᣂೣɹᙢዩɹᩂឹਸˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏
ǵᝠ 7 ɫఠᔒɭॷᶲɭ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɹᬠѥˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏ॷᶲȵȡȵʳɴɌɛȵɤɩᅊᅋਸȵȡ

ນ!6ȁාႢ༆Ȇ‫ڠ‬Ⴄ༆ৗ་‫ض͈࢘ا‬A⏏ॷᶲաᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗ⏃⎾⏆1984-89
1990-99
1984-99

15-29 ๳
0.331
0.161
0.225

30-39 ๳
0.389
0.169
0.251

40-44 ๳
0.169
0.197
0.187

45-54 ๳
0.101
0.146
0.129

55 ๳ГΫ
⏎0.008⏎0.063⏎0.041

‫غ‬៟
0.983
0.612
0.715

՟ፈఠᔒ
⏎0.134⏎0.035⏎0.072μፈఠᔒ⏎0.060⏎0.025⏎0.018

Პፈఠᔒ
0.359
0.370
0.366

߂࡝‫ר‬
0.710
1.415
1.151

‫غ‬៟
0.971
1.623
1.378

B⏏࡝๴աᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗ⏃⎾⏆1984-89
1990-99
1984-99ံ࡝๴
ǵ0.042⏎0.102⏎0.048

ນ!7ȁාႢ༆Ȇ‫ڠ‬Ⴄ༆Ⴛ൱ႁ͈୆ॲ଻͈࣓͒ࡃഽ
A⏏ॷᶲաᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗ⏃⎾⏆1984-89
1990-99
1984-99

15-29 ๳
0.140
0.056
0.087

30-39 ๳
0.155
0.063
0.097

40-44 ๳
0.064
0.072
0.069

45-54 ๳
0.040
0.053
0.048

55 ๳ГΫ
⏎0.003⏎0.021⏎0.014

‫غ‬៟
0.396
0.222
0.288

՟ፈఠᔒ
⏎0.049⏎0.012⏎0.026μፈఠᔒ⏎0.007⏎0.010⏎0.070

Პፈఠᔒ
0.140
0.141
0.140

߂࡝‫ר‬
0.275
0.539
0.440

‫غ‬៟
0.380
0.636
0.540

B⏏࡝๴աᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹ֟ഗ⏃⎾⏆1984-89
1990-99
1984-99ံ࡝๴
ǵ0.017⏎0.022⏎0.012114

ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱ȵɤɩȦʳ⏏Ʉɭɴ 40 ๳ȴʰ 54 ๳᭥Ꮹɹᅊᅋਸᢨ჉ȵᘿɌȦ⏏1984-89 ॷᬚɴɻॷᶲɻ 30 ๳ȴʰ 39 ๳᭥Ꮹɫ̴ͻ˪ɭɲʱ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ৿ᦡɌɩȦʳ⏏1990-99 ॷᬚɻ 40 ๳ȴʰ 44๳᭥Ꮹȵ̴ͻ˪ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏
ǵఠᔒɹ֟ഗɻ߂࡝‫ר‬ȵʢɤɭʢ߂ȷȼ⏋1984-89 ॷᬚɻ 0.28 ⎾ȴʰ 1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ 0.54 ⎾ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏
ǵᝠ 8 ɻ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɹ྇໨ˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏1984-89 ॷᬚɻ⏋ᣂೣ˽̜̒˪ɹଁᬏრȵΥᅱ߂ȷɲᢨ჉ˁɌɛ⏏֝ӈᅊᅋਸଁᬏɹࡸɴ 68 ⎾ȵ֝ӈᓔ 1 ϺȡɛʱɹᣂೣខҺრɹଁᬏɫᠦ౩ɫ
ȷʳ⏏֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɭᐵឹᏬᅊᅋਸ (TFP) ɻ 32 ⎾ɹᢨ჉ˁɌɩȦʳ⏏Ʉʶˁೝᬚաɴʛʳɭ⏋৿‫ץ‬ɐɲʼɠ 1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ⏋ᣂೣខҺრɹଁᬏȵ 46 ⎾ɹᢨ჉ɫȡʳɹɴປɌɩ⏋֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫⏃׋‬17.5 ⎾⏆ɭ TFP（36.3 ⎾⏆ȵ 54 ⎾ɭ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏TFP ᕶкȵ 1984-89 ॷᬚɹ 1.03 ⎾ȴʰ 2.21 ⎾ʍɭ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏ɄɹɄɭɻ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ɹЈɹ቉ድᓔɹᅊᅋਸՕഓɭ‫ؾ‬෵ɹᐄഗɫȡʳ␩Thangavelu and Rao 1999; Owyong and Rao 1998: Rao and Lee 1995␭⏏֝ӈɹᣒ޴

ນ!8ȁࠐफ஠ఘ͙̹́Ⴛ൱୆ॲ଻଼ಿ͈࡙ஂȪɓȫ֝ӈᅊᅋਸ ᣂೣ˵ͻ̲˽ ֝ӈՕᨗრ
ଁᬏრ
ଁᬏრ
5.61
8.48
40.83
6.64
8.78
39.17
6.25
8.67
38.32

ᅊᅋଁᬏრ
1984-89
1990-99
1984-99

7.62
9.43
9.02

ᣂೣខҺრ
ᢨ჉঎*
3.80
2.57
3.65

֝ӈɹᣒ޴
‫׋‬ᢨ჉঎**
0.776
0.859
0.827

TFP
1.03
2.21
1.77

* (x⏎e)(1⏎sL )** d*(sL )ນ!9ȁ໐࿝༆Ⴛ൱୆ॲ଻଼ಿ͈ාႢ༆࣓ͥ͢ͅࡃഽȪɓȫ‫⵾ޓ‬ㅧᬺ
1984-89
1990-99
1984-99‫ޓ‬㊄Ⲣ࡮ਇേ↥࡮଻㒾╬
1984-89
1990-99
1984-99‫ޓ‬ㆇャ࡮ୖᐶ࡮ㅢା

15-29 ᱦ30-39 ᱦ40-49 ᱦ50 ᱦએ਄

ว⸘

0.055
0.192
0.141

0.204
0.026
0.092

0.098
0.109
0.105

⏎0.003⏎0.038⏎0.025

0.353
0.290
0.314

⏎0.006⏎0.072⏎0.029

0.097
0.099
0.098

0.045
0.085
0.069

⏎0.003⏎0.026⏎0.025

0.134
0.085
0.134

0.079
0.023
0.044

0.040
0.116
0.087

⏎0.004⏎0.031⏎0.021

0.312
0.076
0.165

0.230
0.175
0.195

0.132
0.179
0.162

0.0001⏎0.045⏎0.028

0.334
0.079
0.192

1984-89
0.198
1990-99⏎0.032
1984-990.054‫␠࡮ࠖ࠹࠾ࡘࡒࠦޓ‬ળ࡮୘ੱࠨ࡯ࡆࠬ
1984-89
1990-99
1984-99⏎0.028⏎0.230⏎0.137115

ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬‫׋‬ʢ 1984-89 ॷᬚɻ 14.7 ⎾ɫȡɤɛɹȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɻ 18 ⎾ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏Ʉʶɴᢨ჉Ɍɛ
ɹɻ⏋μፈఠᔒГΫɹఠᔒˁ‫؝‬ȿɛ֝ӈᓔɫɗʶʢ 40-44 ๳ɹॷᶲ᭥Ꮹɫȡʳ⏏
4.2ȁࢹ௮་‫͂ا‬໐࿝༆୆ॲ଻଼ಿ
ǵॷᶲա͹࡝๴աɴᅋ෌ᨆᬐɹᅊᅋਸˁ៟፤ɐʳɭ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɹ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɴɦȦɩᖂ٢ཉȦϟࡸȵ༝ȴʃΫȵɤɩȼʳ⏏ਸ਼ᦵɴ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹᣱɄɤɩȦʳᅋ෌ᨆᬐɫɻ⏋ʭʱᲞᶲɲ
֝ӈᓔɹៗᓷʦ᭘ᔼ‫׋‬ȵᣱɄɤɩȦʳɭᓒȭʰʶʳ⏏ɲ˃ɭɲʶɽɄɹ˫͡ͻ̺ɹ֝ӈᓔɻɗɹᓷዛɴ႕೑ɹଯᔨˁ୫ɤɩȦɩ⏋ɗʶȵਸ਼ᦵɲ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹʢɭ⏋έਖឹɴɲɤɛʱ⏋ਸ਼ᦵɴ᭘ᔼ‫׋‬ɐʳɭᓒȭʰʶʳȴʰɫȡʳ⏏
ǵॷᶲա͹࡝๴աɹᅋ෌ᨆᬐɹ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɹ៟ཀྵᐄഗɻᝠ 9 ɫኍɌɛ⏏֓ᶲɴʭʳ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɻ֝ӈᅊᅋਸɴɦȦɩɻ⏋នᦶ෌ᨆᬐɫɻ⏋ᲞЊ֓ѝғᅊᅋʍɹ˹̶̜ɴɦʶɩ⏋ᗐॷ֝ӈɹ౅ʍ˹̶̜ɌɩȦʳɄɭȵᠧʛɭʶʳ⏏ᅋ෌ԃкɹՕഓɫʢ៎ཀྵɇʶɛɄɭɫȡʳȵ⏋
1984-89 ॷᬚɴɻ 30-39 ๳ɹॷᶲ᭥Ꮹ⏃0.204 ⎾⏆ȵ֝ӈᅊᅋਸȵΥᅱᲞȴɤɛȵ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻɗʶȵ 15-29 ๳ɹॷᶲ᭥Ꮹ⏃0.192 ⎾⏆ɴውɤɩȦʳ⏏
ǵ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɴɦȦɩʛʳɭ⏋᧊ᥥᦲѵɻ 15-29 ๳ɫ֝ӈᅊᅋਸȵʢɤɭʢᲞȦȵ⏋ɗɹʓȴɫɻ 30-39 ๳ɭɲɤɩȦʳ⏏1990-99 ॷᬚɴɲʳɭɄɹӃ‫ك‬ɻΥ᥊Ɍɩ⏋40-49 ๳ɹᅊᅋਸȵᲞȦ⏏ɄɄɫʢ 1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻၓॷॷᶲ᭥ᏩɹᅊᅋਸȵᲞȦɄɭˁኍɌɩȦʳɹɫȡʳ⏏ᩆᜨ⏋έ֪ᅋ⏋ѳ᭝ᨆᬐɫɻ⏋40-49 ๳᭥Ꮹʍɹ˹̶̜ɻʛʰʶɲȦ⏏ɌȴɌ⏋1984-89 ॷᬚɴປʏɩ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ 40-49 ๳᭥Ꮹɹᢨ჉ȵᲞȼɫɩȦʳ⏏ԃᨆᬐˁʛʳɭ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɦȦɩɻ⏋኏ЦɲȦɌ҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɹ 40-49 ๳ɹॷᶲ᭥ᏩȵʢɤɭʢᲞȦᅊᅋਸˁኍɌɩ
ນ!10ȁ໐࿝༆Ⴛ൱୆ॲ଻଼ಿ͈‫ڠ‬Ⴄ༆࣓ͥ͢ͅࡃഽȪɓȫ
ံ࡝๴
՟ፈఠᔒ
ǵនᦶ෌
1984-89⏎0.041⏎0.073
1990-99
ǵ0.008
ǵ0.108
1984-99⏎0.010ǵ0.040ǵᩆᜨ͹έ֪ᅋ͹ѳ᭝ፈ
1984-89⏎0.037⏎0.0691990-99⏎0.055⏎0.0291984-99⏎0.48⏎0.045ǵ᧊ᥥ͹҄ঐ͹ᦲѵ
1984-89ǵ0.147⏎0.018
1990-99
ǵ0.040⏎0.1501984-99
ǵ0.080⏎0.100ǵ˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽
1984-89ǵ0.120ǵ0.106
1990-99⏎0.029⏎0.164
1984-99⏎0.010⏎0.067

μፈఠᔒ

Პፈఠᔒ

߂࡝‫ר‬

‫غ‬៟

ǵ0.020ǵ0.004
ǵ0.010

0.107
0.145
0.131

0.156
0.545
0.399

0.169
0.809
0.569

⏎0.026⏎0.061⏎0.047

0.021
0.003
0.014

0.178
0.455
0.344

0.077
0.313
0.218

ǵ0.017
ǵ0.045
ǵ0.034

0.187
0.332
0.278

0.270
0.647
0.505

0.602
0.913
0.797

⏎0.056⏎0.070⏎0.065

0.340
0.137
0.213

0.749
0.844
0.809

1.260
0.579
0.796

116

ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱Ȧʳ⏏Ʉɹᨆᬐɻ⏋෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹ৯ᯱˁʢɤɭʢ‫؝‬ȿɴȼȦᨆᬐɫȡʳ⏏នᦶ෌ᨆᬐɹɄɹॷᶲ
᭥Ꮹɹᢨ჉ɻ 0.11 ⎾ɫȡʳɹɴປɌɩ⏋Ʉɹᨆᬐɫɻ 0.18 ⎾ɭʓʖ҆ɹᢨ჉ɴɲɤɩȦʳ⏏
ǵ࡝๴աɹᣒ޴‫֟׋‬ഗɻɰȩȴ⏱ǵᝠ 10 ˁʛʰʶɛȦ⏏Პፈఠᔒˁ‫؝‬ȿɛ֝ӈᓔɹᢨ჉ȵᘿɌȦɄɭȵʼȴʳ⏏Ʉɭɴនᦶ෌⏋˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɴɦȦɩɻ⏋Პፈఠᔒˁ‫؝‬ȿɛ֝ӈᓔɹᢨ჉ȵʢɤɭʢᲞȴɤɛ⏏ԃೝᬚɴʼɛɤɩ⏋Ʉɭɴ⏋នᦶ෌⏋᧊ᥥᦲѵᨆᬐɫ⏋Პፈఠᔒˁ‫؝‬ȿɛ֝ӈᓔɹᢨ჉ȵᘿɌȦ⏏
ǵɐʏɩɹᨆᬐɫ⏋ఠᔒɹ֟ഗɻ๭ɭɫɩȦʳ⏏ɐɲʼɠ߂‫֝ר‬ӈᓔɴɦȦɩɹᢨ჉঎ɻᯃ।
ɴᲞȦ⏏ʚɛ 1984-89 ॷᬚɭ 1990-99 ॷᬚˁປʏʳɭ⏋ɛɭȭɽ⏋នᦶ෌ɫʛʶɽ⏋1984-89 ॷ
ᬚɻ 0.17 ⎾ɫȡʳɹɴ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɻ 0.81 ⎾ɭ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏Ʉʶɻ֓ᶲȵཝࢹɌɩȦʳɹɭࢪ၇ᇕɫȡʳ⏃ᝠ 9 ⏆⏏
ǵᅊᅋਸΫ౥ɹ྇໨ˁᨆᬐաɴʛɛɹȵᝠ 11 ɫȡʳ⏏֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɭᐵឹᏬᅊᅋਸȵᅊᅋਸˁ‫ك‬ΫɇɓɩȦʳɹȵ౩ʰȴɫȡʳ⏏1984-89 ॷᬚɭ 1990-99 ॷᬚˁປᥒɐʳɭ⏋֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɻԃᨆᬐɴʼɛɤɩ⏋ᅊᅋਸˁʭʱΥࣝᲞʠɩȦʳ⏏ё޺ɻ˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɫȡʳ⏏នᦶ෌ᨆᬐɫɻ⏋֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ɹᢨ჉঎ɻ 1984-89 ॷ 0.52 ⎾ɫȡɤɛɹȵ⏋
1990-99 ॷɴɻ 1.10 ⎾ɭ҆ГΫɹᢨ჉ˁɌɩȦʳɄɭȵʼȴʳ⏏
TFP ɻនᦶ෌ɴɦȦɩʛʳɭ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɻ 1984-89 ॷᬚɭປʏɩжȼɫɩȦʳ⏏ɗɹςɲჿᅓɻˏ˻ˏ‫׶‬ลȴʰȼʳέ໥ɴິʠʳɄɭȵɫȷʳ⏏ˏ˻ˏ‫׶‬ลմɹ 1990 ॷȴʰ 1996 ॷ
ນ!11ȁ໐࿝༆Ⴛ൱୆ॲ଻଼ಿ͈࡙ஂȪɓȫ
ᅊᅋଁᬏრ

֝ӈᅊᅋਸ
ଁᬏრ

នᦶ෌
1984-89
8.90
6.10
1990-99
9.46
7.11
1984-99
7.67
6.72
ᩆᜨ͹έ֪ᅋ͹ѳ᭝ፈ
1984-89
11.71
6.48
1990-99
5.30⏎2.97ǵ
1984-997.70
0.57
᧊ᥥ͹҄ঐ͹ᦲѵ
1984-89
8.05
8.33
1990-99
9.07
5.03
1984-99
8.69
6.27
˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽
1984-89
0.51
2.75
1990-99
10.29
6.05
1984-99
8.12
4.82

ᣂೣ˵ͻ̲
˽ଁᬏრ

֝ӈՕᨗრ

ᣂೣខҺრ
ᢨ჉঎*

֝ӈɹᣒ޴
‫׋‬ᢨ჉঎**

TFP

7.55
7.16
7.30

36.42
33.40
34.52

2.81
4.85
4.09

0.52
1.10
1.75

ǵ2.74
ǵ1.16
ǵ1.75

17.72
7.32
11.24

12.15
16.25
14.77

10.52
⏎0.80ǵ
3.56

0.81
1.93
1.51

⏎5.10
⏎4.10
⏎4.49

1.37
7.76
5.37

29.11
31.32
30.44

1.13
2.65
2.08

0.91
0.99
0.96

ǵ6.29
ǵ1.39
ǵ3.23

18.78
10.26
13.45

69.64
64.18
66.30

5.16
2.38
3.42

1.58
0.63
0.99

⏎6.23
ǵ3.05
ǵ0.41

* (x⏎e)(1⏎sL )** d*(sL )117ˏ˻ˏ͹ˏ̶͠ˡ‫ݖܩ‬቉ድǵፀ 2 ‫ش‬ɹέ໥ೝᬚˁ᭑Ȧɛ TFP ɻ 2.6 ⎾ɫȡɤɛ⏏1984-89 ॷᬚɭປʏɩʓ˃ɹࢹɌɌȴᘺɠɩȦɲȦ⏏
ǵ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐˁʛɩʛʳɭ⏋TFP ɻ᧊ᥥ͹҄ঐ͹ᦲѵᨆᬐɫཝࢹɌɩȦʳ⏏˱̢͖̘͊ˑ͹኏Ц͹҅Ϻ˵ͻ̲˽ɻ‫֓ވ‬ɌɩȦʳ⏏⏎6.2 ⎾ȴʰ 3.0 ⎾ɭɲɤɛ⏏
ǵ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɴᬠɐʳГΫɹᐄഗɻ⏋Ʉʶʚɫɹ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡˵ͻ̲˽ᅋ෌ɹ TFP ɴᬠɐʳ቉ድɭᅵɲɤɛʢɹɫȡʳ⏏Tan and Virabhak␩1998␭ɻ TFP ɻΫ౥ɌɩȦʳɄɭˁ‫ݬ‬ٚɌɩȦʳ⏏ɌȴɌ⏋৳ʰɹ቉ድɫɻ⏋ॷᶲ͹ఠᔒɴʭʳ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ˁᓒૅɌɩȦɲȦ⏏֝ӈɹᣒˁᓒૅɐʳɄɭɴʭʱ⏋ଂǾɹ቉ድɫɻ TFP ɹᢨ჉ȵࢸɇȼɫɛɹɫȡʳ⏏

5.ȁ̤ȁͩȁͤȁͅǵɄɹᠶయɫɻॷᶲ͹ఠᔒɴʭʳ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ˁ౩ኍᇕɴࢷԂɌɛȩȭɫ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɴȲȿʳᅊᅋਸଁᬏˁࡸ៷Ɍɛ⏏ఠᔒˁ‫؝‬ȿɛᗐॷࣝɹᅊᅋਸʍɹᢨ჉঎ȵᘿɌȦɄɭȵʼȴɤɛ⏏ɌȴɌ⏋ॷᶲաɴ֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸˁປᥒɐʳɭΥᖔɴ֓ᶲɴʭʱᅊᅋਸȵΫ౥ɌɩȦʳɄɭʢʼȴɤɛ⏏Ʉɭɴ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻ 40-49 ๳ɹ֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸȵ೎ʢᲞȼ⏋Ʉʶɻ
1984-89 ॷᬚɴɻ 30-39 ๳ȵɗȩɫȡʳɹɭࢪ၇ᇕɫȡʳ⏏ɄɹɄɭɻၓॷࣝɻᐁᱻɭ࡝ᓃɴ
ʭʱଯ᝗ˁᓃ਄ɐʳɄɭɫᅊᅋਸɴࢊήɐʳɄɭȵɫȷʳɄɭˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏
1984-89 ॷᬚɭປʏɩ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɹᅊᅋਸȵᲞȦჿᅓɹʁɭɦɻ⏋1990-99 ॷᬚɴɻᣂೣ
ᙢዩɹ˽̴ͻ̝ȵʪɤȼʱɭɌɩȦɛɄɭɫȡʳ⏏֝ӈᓔȵଯ᝗ˁк਄ɫȷʳȴɰȩȴɻ⏋Ȧɤɩʛʶɽ⏋ᣂೣᙢዩɹ˽̴ͻ̝ɴᬠѥȵȡʳ⏏ʢɠʸ˃ɗʶɻᣂೣខҺრȵᲞȦȴɰȩȴɴћࡔɐʳɹɻȦȩʚɫʢɲȦ⏏ɌȴɌ⏋ᣂೣᙢዩȵᦵɐȹʳɭ⏋֝ӈᓔɹଯ᝗ˁᓃ਄ɐʳᔨ֐ɻ᦬ཝɌɩɌʚȩ⏏
ǵ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹᅊᅋਸଁᬏʍɹ৯ᯱɻᨆᬐաᅊᅋਸՕഓɴʭʱ౩ʰȴɴɲʳ⏏෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹࢸɇȦ˵ͻ̲˽ᨆᬐɴਃϟɐʳᲞᶲ֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸɻ⏋෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹਸ਼ᦵɫ߂ȷȦនᦶ෌ɹᲞᶲ֝ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸʭʱȴɲʱᲞȦ⏏Ʉɹᐄഗɻ֝ӈకፑˁᓒȭʳ᭬ɴᩂឹɲ̯Ͳ̜ˁήȭʳ⏏ᐁཕԃкɹᅊᅋਸɻᗐॷ֝ӈᓔˁਸ਼ᦵɲ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ȵᇍᅊɌɩȦʳᨆᬐɴᨗɌ⏋Პᶲ֝ӈᓔˁ෯ᦶ޴‫׋‬ɹࢸɇȦᨆᬐɴᨗɐʳɄɭɫʭʱᲞʚʳ⏏ʚɛ⏋ଂǾɹࡸ៷ᐄഗɻ⏋߂‫֝ר‬ӈᓔɹᅊᅋਸȵᲞȦɄɭʢኍɌɩȦʳ⏏ɗɌɩʚɛఠᔒɹ౅ȵ⏋ॷᶲʭʱ৯ᯱȵ߂ȷȦɄɭʢ౩ʰȴɴɌɛ⏏
ǵ˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳȵ˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ፈɹˏ˻ˏɹᐁཕɻଘ᠊৓ࡎɹ̜͞ɫ⏋ᣂೣɗʶʢ޺‫ܕ‬ᣂೣɭ֝ӈˁ‫֓ވ‬ɇɓʳɄɭɫଁᬏˁఌȭɩȷɛɴ᧌ȹɲȦ⏏ଯ᝗ᦽ๰ (TFP) ȵʓɭ˃ɰɲȦɹɫ⏋ɄȩɌɛᐁཕɻ౛ಓ߉ᦵɐʳɭɌɛ⏏ɄʶɴࢪɌɩ⏋ଂǾɹࡸ៷ᐄഗɻ⏋ଯ᝗ᦽ๰ (TFP) ȵ
1990-99 ॷᬚɫ 2.21 ⎾⏋ɗʶɴ֝ӈɹᣒ޴‫׋‬ȵ 0.86 ⎾ȡʱ⏋‫غ‬៟ɫ 3 ⎾৔ɭɲʳɄɭ⏋1984-89
ॷᬚʭʱᲞອྈˁѳɤɩȦʳɄɭˁ౩ʰȴɴɌɛ⏏֝ӈˁȩʚȼ‫ع‬ᨆᬐɴᨗՕɌ⏋ఠᔒହᣂˁ޽ȼɐʶɽ,ʚɞʚɞᅊᅋឹᏬଁᬏრ̺͞˽ 3 ⎾ГΫɹᐁཕଁᬏȵ‫خ‬ᔨɲɄɭˁኍɌɩȦʳ⏏
118ᭁᨆ͹̊Ͳˤ̾͡⏧˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɻʚʖʸɌȴ⏱ГΫɹࡸ៷቉ድȴʰȦȭʳɄɭɻᐁཕɹᬏೝᇕଁᬏɴɻఠᔒȵᩂឹɫȡʳɄɭ⏋ᅊ༯ఠᔒ⏋ԗఠᔒ⏋ᓷ‫ݭ‬ఠᔒȵЁ৿ʚɐʚɐᩂឹɭɲʱ⏋ɗɄˁȩʚȼకፑ᧊‫ۊ‬ɐʶɽ⏋˹Ͳˤͅͻ͡ᐁཕɴɻʚɞʚɞೝ৺ȵ୫ɩʳɭȦȩɄɭɫȡʳ⏏
֨ȁဥȁ໲ȁࡃᭁᨆᗛ᝔⏏1997⏏ȏˏ˻ˏᐁཕ቉ድȑ቉ድ‫أ‬ೆ 48⏏ኜକ߂࡝ᐁཕᐁ‫ۊ‬቉ድଘ⏏
γᅠ᪃᝔⏏ȏആˏ˻ˏɹߏᤄ̆ᐁཕଁᬏɭకঌɹ৲ւȑᇐᴚ๭‫ھ‬ᇺ៱⏋༠޺ᐁཕ‫ݜ֐ת‬ᩆᬖᇍ‫ک‬ᰍ቉ድЦ៱⏋ആ໽ᐁཕృ‫ݬ‬኏⏏
˪͡ͻ˫͇Ͳ⏋P. ʓȴ⏏1995⏏ȏˏ˻ˏǵଁ֒ʍɹᠩᰍȑጭάᖂ‫ھ‬ᇺ៱⏋μ߈ԇᠶ኏⏏
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Chinloy, Peter. 1988. The Effects of Shifts in the Composition of Employment on Labour Productivity Growth:
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ൡࠗ঩ၳȏ֝ӈ֐ᠭീॷ‫ݬ‬ȑᐵ֭ংᐏ៟࣌ᐏ៟ᠭീᨆ֝ӈ֐ᐏ៟ᠩ 2000 ॷႆLabour Force Survey, Ministry of Manpower, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆Profile of the Labour Force of Singapore, Ministry of Labour, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆
Report of Services, Department of Statistics, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆Yearbook of Statistics, Department of Statistics, Singapore⏃‫ॷع‬঎ႆ⏆119