International Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Latin America
March 7, 2014

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research inJapan and International Collaboration
Y. Honkura
Japan Science and Technology Agency
SATREPS Program Officer

Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
Director: Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and technology (MEXT)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Geographical Survey Institute (GSI)
National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)
National Institute of Advanced Industrial
Science and Technology (AIST)Japan Coast Guard
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Scienceand Technology (JAMSTEC)
National institute of Information andCommunications Technology (NICT)
Universities
National Research Institute of Fire andDisaster

Policy Committee
Earthquake Research Committee① Planning of comprehensive and basicpolicies② Coordination of budgets and otheradministrative works with related
governmental organizations③ Establishment of comprehensive survey
and observation plans④ Collection, arrangement, analysis andcomprehensive evaluation of survey
results by related governmentalorganizations, universities, etc.
⑤ Public announcements based on thecomprehensive evaluations

Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
Director: Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and technology (MEXT)

Earthquake Research Committee

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Geographical Survey Institute (GSI)Monthly Evaluation ofSeismic Activity in Japan

National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)
National Institute of Advanced Industrial
Science and Technology (AIST)Japan Coast Guard

Data
Information

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Scienceand Technology (JAMSTEC)
National institute of Information andCommunications Technology (NICT)
Universities

Subcommittee: Long-term Evaluation of Earthquakes
Subcommittee: Evaluation of Strong Ground Motion
Subcommittee: Evaluation of Tsunamis

National Research Institute of Fire andDisasterLong-Term Forecast ofLarge Earthquakes
in Japan
Subduction-zoneEarthquakes

After HERP, MEXTLong-Term Forecast ofLarge Earthquakes
in JapanInland Earthquakes
along Active Faults

After HERP, MEXT

National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan
Survey and Observation of Earthquakes

Research of Active Faults

Survey of Underground Structures

The promotion of earthquake research－comprehensive and basic policy for the promotion of earthquake observations, surveys,
measurements, and researches –Long-term Evaluation of the Occurrence of Earthquakes

Probabilistic SeismicHazard Map
The probabilityof ground motions equal to or higher
than seismic intensity 6 Lower,
occurring within 30 years
from the present.

Improvement of Methods to Evaluate( Predict) Strong Ground Motions

Seismic Hazard Map forSpecified Seismic
Source Faults
The seismic
intensities forecast for various
regions around the Miura-hanto
fault group.

Upper or above

These maps are expected to be used
○to raise the public's awareness of earthquake disaster reduction○to take the earthquake disaster reduction measures more effectively and efficiently○to evaluate the risks of establishing important facilities and enterprises in a certain area.

Seismic intensity
455Lower Upper

6Lower66

2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake: Seismic Source Area and Seismicity
Triggered by the Main Shock

3/12

3/11
4/7

4/11
3/11

3/23
3/9
3/12

3/15

3/11

3/11

After HERP, MEXT

2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake: Crustal Deformation (GEONET)

After T Nishimura et al., Earth Planets Space, 63, 631‐636, 2011

New Technology for More Accurate Long-Term
Forecast of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes
GPS/Acoustic Seafloor Geodetic Observations

After M. Sato, Japan Coast Guard

Coseismic Displacement Off the Coast of Miyagi PrefectureAfter Satoal.,Sato,Science,
19CoastMay 2011.
FrometM.
JapanGuard

Displacement before the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake

After M. Sato, Japan Coast Guard

Steady Crustal Movements Caused by
Subduction of Oceanic Plates(vs Eurasian plate)
40°N
Japan Coast Guard
Tohoku Univ.
Nagoya Univ.

38°N

9.2cm/year(NUVEL-1A)

36°N

Pacific
Plate

34°N
Approx. 4cm/year(Kotake et al.，1998)

5cm/yearPhilippine Sea Plate

32°N
134°E

136°E

138°E

140°E

142°E

144°E

146°E

The velocity vectors detected by GPS/acoustic seafloor geodetic observations aregenerally consistent with those detected by on-land GPS measurements.
After M. Sato, Japan Coast GuardSea-Floor Cable Systems to be
Installed in Northeastern Japan
・Pressure Measurements:
Monitoring of Vertical
Movement of Sea-Floor
・Seismic Observations

After HERP, MEXT

Next Mega-Thrust Earthquake in Japan?
Nankai Trough Earthquake
A
Probability of occurrence within 30 years
M8 ～ M9: 60 ～ 70%
If a few earthquakes occur successively,
what will be the time lag between them.

•1707

A–C

Mw 8.7

•1854

B–CA

Mw 8.4Mw 8.532 hrs•19441946

BA

Mw 8.2Mw 8.42 yrs

After Y. Kaneda, JAMSTEC

BCSeafloor Cable Networks along the Nanakai TroughTokai Eq

Tonankai EqFirst Phase
Nankai Eq
Second Phase
Hyuganada Eq

After Y. Kaneda, JAMSTECDONET-1 and DONET-２○DONET-２
・First phase: 2011- 2015
・Second phase: 2016 - 2020
○DONET-１is in operation○Main Systems（compared to DONET-1）
・Cable length：
350km
・Branching：
7・Node:：7・Equipment:
28（250km）
（5)
（5）
（20）

DONET-１
DONET-２ （first phase）

After Y. Kaneda, JAMSTECDONET-２（second phase）

Project for Research on Earthquake Disaster Prevention in the Nankai Trough Region
Estimation of Strong Ground Motion by the Cabinet OfficeIntensity

After the Committee Report (Cabinet Office)Distribution of Seafloor Observation Sites
before the Tohoku Earthquake●Landward slope of theMajor trench・Japan Coast Guard：18
about 100km interval
・Tohoku Univ. : 6
mainly off Miyagi Pref.
・Nagoya Univ. : 8
Suruga bay, Kumano basin

NorthAmerican
Plate

JCG
Tohoku Univ.
Nagoya Univ.
Focal regions

M7.7
80~90%

EurasianPlate

M7.5
99%

M887%
M8.4
50~60%

M8.1
60~70%

PacificPlate●Water depth400 - 5500m
Philippine Sea Plate

After M. Sato, Japan Coast GuardNon-Uniform Distribution of Crustal Movement in the Nankai Trough Region

After M. Sato, Japan Coast Guard

GPS/Acoustic Seafloor
Geodetic Observations
Intensified along theNankai Trough Afterthe 2011 Great Tohoku
Earthquake

After HERP, MEXTProject for Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Mitigationin the Metropolitan Area
Mt. Fuji
Mt. Fuji
Mt. Fuji
Fuji

Depth to Philippine
Sea Plate (km)Mt. Fuji
Mt. Fuji

Mt. FujiPhilippine Sea Plate

Mt. Fuji

Estimation of Strong Ground
Motion In the Tokyo AreaAfter Project Report

Project for Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Mitigationin the Metropolitan Area
NIED: 3-D Full-Scale Earthquake Testing Facility (E-defense)

After Project ReportWorld Seismicity Map
1957 Mw9.1
1952 Mw9.0
Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake2011 Mw9.0

1964 Mw9.2

2004 Mw9.0

2010 Mw8.8

1964 Mw9.5

After Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. Tokyo

SATREPS Projects over the World(39 countries, 77 projects)
Asia: 13 countries, 40 projects
Africa: 14 countries, 20 projects
Latin America/Caribbean: 8 countries, 13 projects
Other Regions: 4 countries, 4 projects

SATREPS Projects for Natural Disaster Prevention
Research project on disaster prevention/mitigation measures against floods and storm
surges in Bangladesh
Integrated study on mitigation of multimodal disasters caused by ejection of volcanic
products
Earthquake and tsunami disaster mitigation in the Marmara region and disaster educationin Turkey
Development of landslide risk assessment technology and education in Vietnam and otherareas in the Greater Mekong Sub-region
Enhancement of technology to develop tsunami-resilient community
Magmatic fluid supply into Lakes Nyos and Monoun, and mitigation of natural disasters inCameroonResearch and development for reducing geo-hazard damage in Malaysia caused bylandslide & flood
Enhancement of earthquake and volcano monitoring and effective utilization of disastermitigation information in the Philippines
Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks
Information network for natural disaster mitigation and recovery
Enhancement of earthquake and tsunami disaster mitigation technology in Peru
Risk identification and land-use planning for disaster mitigation of landslides and floods in
Croatia
Multi-disciplinary hazard reduction from earthquakes and volcanoes in Indonesia
Study on GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods) in the Bhutan Himalayas

JST: Strategic International Research Cooperative Program＜Ｊ－ＲＡＰＩＤ＞
Cooperative Research Projects with France
・Quantitative assessment of nonlinear soil response during the great The 2011 off thePacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
・Dynamics of The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake: from long term
stress accumulation to asperities
・Crustal seismic velocity changes and deformation associated with The 2011 off thePacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
・Disaster Evacuation and Risk Perception in Democracies
・The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake from Earth to Oceans and Space:a critical case-study to improve earthquake and tsunami anticipation
・Paleoseismology and paleotsunamis of the NE Japan subduction zone andrelationships with The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake: Constraints
on the seismic cycle
・Interdisciplinary study on the mitigation of NaTech risks in a complex world: learningfrom Japan experience applying ERRA NaTech method, iNTeg-Risk projectCooperative Research Projects with the U.S.
・Field Investigation on Humanitarian Logistic Practices under Cascading Disasters and aPersistent Threat: The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake
・Response to The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake: Participation inMarine Geophysical Surveys of the Quake Rupture Zone
・Recovery Activities Using Underwater Robots in Tsunami- devastated Areas
・Site Characterization for Geotechnical Hazards Associated with Soil Liquefaction
Prevailing in Kanto Region Based on Geotechnical Field Investigations
・Study on Design Method of Multistory Building Against Tsunami and Tsunami Debris
・IT Virtualization for Disaster Mitigation and Recovery
・Tsunami Reconnaissance of The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake inJapan and Pacific Islands
・Evaluation of the Seismic Performance of Bridges during The Great EasternJapan Earthquake
・US-Japan Collaborative Study on Seismic Damage of Buildings and their Mechanism

・US-Japan Collaborative Study on Seismic Damage of Buildings and their Mechanism
・US-Japan Collaborative Investigation of Geotechnical Problems Relating to The
2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
・Investigation on the Performance of Buildings with Structural Walls in The Great
Eastern Japan Earthquake
・The Role of Urban Development Patterns in Mitigating the Effects of Tsunami Run-up
・Flow Dynamics/Morphological Impacts of The 2011 off the Pacific coast ofTohoku Earthquake Tsunami, Japan・Evaluation of the potential of large aftershocks of The 2011 off the Pacific coast ofTohoku Earthquake
・Social Networking Services in the Crisis and Immediate Post-Catastrophe
Response Processes

・Urgent surveys for evacuation and measures from unexpected large tsunami

Resilience Against Disasters<Germany, Slovakia>
Increasing Resilience of Urban Planning (URBIPROOF)<Romania, Austria, UK>
Road Networks for Earthquake Resilient Societies (ROADERS)<Switzerland, Italy, Germany>
Resilience against Disasters Using Remote Sensing and Geoinformation Technologies
for Rapid Mapping and Information Dissemination (RAPIDMAP)<Turkey, Germany>
An Innovative Tie System for Improving the Monolithic Behavior of Masonry In-filled
Reinforced Concrete Frames (INFILTIE)<Norway, Germany, Turkey>
Risk Assessment and Design of Prevention Structures for Enhanced Tunami Disaster
Resilience (RAPSODI)

Strategic International Research Cooperative Program with National Natural Science
Foundation of China (NSFC) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)● Research on the Seismic Evaluation and Mitigation Technology ofUrban Super-tall Buildings● Refined Analysis and Damage Control of Earthquake Disaster Impact
on Bridge Structures● Development of Massive Computation System for Evaluation andMitigation of Earthquake Disaster Impact on Urban Area
● Sino-Japanese Comparative Research on Earthquake Catastrophe
Management● Paleoseismicity and Future Earthquake Potential of the NortheasternPortion of the Longmenshan Fault Zone and its Branches

International Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Latin America
March 7, 2014

Final Comments
1. Occurrence of a large earthquake is often a rare event for one
country and accumulation of knowledge and experiences is usuallyslow if it is closed within the country.
2. An effective way to overcome such a problem is to collaborate withother countries facing the same problem and share knowledge andexperiences acquired in respective countries.
3. Formation of a sustainable researcher network is thus important for
progress in earthquake and tsunami researches.
I hope this symposium will be an important step towards more strong
partnership between Latin American countries and Japan, as well as
among countries in Latin America.

International Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in Latin America
March 7, 2014

Thank you for your attention