JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1st Japan
Peru Workshop
at UNI, Peru,
TsunamiGroup‐Meeting,
20 December,2009 15‐16 March, 2010

Developing Tsunami Damage
Estimation and Mitigation Technologies
Tsunami Research Group G2

1

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1st Japan
Peru Workshop
at UNI, Peru,
TsunamiGroup‐Meeting,
20 December,2009 15‐16 March, 2010

Let us imagine again the tsunami disasters.
Banda AcehPangandaranHambanthota

Leone

Khao LakCamana2JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Objectives and goals• To
T assess th
the potential
t ti l tsunami
ti didisastert anddits impact to the Peruvian coast• To develop the practical technologies tomitigate tsunami risks in Peru
• To implement the strategic plans for disastermitigation of Peruvian government• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disastermitigation strategies
3JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
WorkshopKickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Tsunami group member• Dr. Shunichi Koshimura (Tohoku •Univ.,, Tsunami engineering,gg,Team Leader)•• Dr. Gaku Shoji (Univ. of Tsukuba,
Structural and earthquake•engineering)•• Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seimologyand Tsunami modeling)•• Dr. Yuji Yagi (Univ. of Tsukuba,•Seismology)• Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa (TEPSCO,Tsunami modeling)

Msc. Julio Kuroiwa (Leader,CISMID))
Guillermo Hasembank(Contralminarte, DHN)
Gilberto Tacilla (Tec., DHN)
Mr. Cesar Jiménez (Tsunamisimulation, DHN)
C l Marcos
CarlosM
Vill
Villanneva(DHN)
Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID)
by Prof. Carlos Alberto Zavala Tóledo
at the kickoff tsunami meeting
CISMID, Dec 20, 20094

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Research plan ‐ Scientific phase ‐• Assessing historical tsunami events and its impact in Peru
– Tsunami sources– Tsunami hazard (Tsunami generation, near‐shore propagationand coastal inundation)– Damage (Casualties, structural damage)• Indentifying potential tsunamis and the worst case scenarios– Tectonic settings and tsunami source scenarios– Potential tsunami exposure (Exposed population)– Potential impact• Mapping tsunami hazard and its impact– Inundation modeling– Damage estimation (Casualties, structural damage)– Hazard maps, Cartography
5JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
WorkshopKickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Research plan ‐ Implementation Phase ‐• Developing a fundamental procedure for mapping
ttsunami
ihhazardd– Training program (Tsunami modeling and mapping)– Warning, guidance and public awareness• Strategic planning to mitigate tsunami risks anddamage– Tsunami disaster mitigation program for Peruvian
government– Tsunami countermeasures– Design for tsunami evacuation facilities– Tsunami evacuation strategies
6JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Past events in Peru

NGDC Tsunami Database
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml
7JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Damage at Camana
Inundation level

8JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

2001 Tsunami ‐ Camana, Peru ‐Casualty

House damage

DeadMissing

InjuryMajor/Minor

Collapsed

2462

41760

2915

Affectedarea

9JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Modeling the 2001 Peruvian tsunami
Tsunami source :Kikuchi and Yamanaka (2001)

10JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Source process of 2007 Peru earthquake
by inversion of tele‐seismic body wave
Slip distribution (Map view)

Focal mechanism, Source time fun.,Sli distribution
Slipdi t ib ti on fault
f lt planelYagi (2007)
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Tsunami Waveform Inversion Result
2010 Chile earthquake

Length: 50 km
Width: 50 km
for each subfault
12JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Tsunami modeling technology• Tsunami Modeling techniques (Tsunami‐code tosimulate tsunami generation
generation, off
off‐shore/near‐shore/nearshore propagation and coastal inundation)

13

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Potential tsunami exposure
Global/Regional Tsunami ModelPopulation

Population (LandScan)

Tsunami height (m)14JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Tsunami fragility curves• Structural damage probabilities in terms of flow
depth, current velocity and hydrodynamic force

15JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Clarification of failure modes ofa structural component by tsunamis
Shear cracking ofbrick masonry wall
せん断ひび割れFlexural failure of
RC column
Tsunami wave
Shear cracking 16ofbrick masonry wall

July 17, 2006
South Java

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Things to discuss are open based on theresolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [1]• Study area …
– One historical event for model verification/validation(Camana,Pisco)– Two potential scenarios (Callao, Chimbote, Pisco, Ilo harbor ;important ports industrial commercial places and exposures)• Data we need
– Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 metergrid form North Pisco, South Pisco should be requested,Camana is already prepared)– Field survey results for model validation (Pisco, Camana)– Building polygon for structural damage estimation
17– Population data for fatality estimation
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ PeruWorkshopKickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Things to discuss are open based on theresolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [2]• Human resources… who is going to work on tsunami modeling?
Schedule?
h d l• What we are going to do in 2010 is– Japan side
• Tsunami propagation modeling to identify what the worst‐
case scenario is.
• Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura,(Koshimura Yanagisawa,Yanagisawa Shoji)• Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event)– Peru side
• What has been done from Pisco and Camana.
• Tsunami issues in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN ,18Mr. Jiménez)JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
WorkshopKickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010


Field survey
at Camana

Engineered concrete
block housein Dec 21‐22, 2009
Non‐engineered concrete
block house

Inundation depth
2.60m

La Punta
19

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Field survey
at Callao
in Dec 20, 200920

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Potential Tsunami Exposed‐Death
PTE = ∑ (1 / N ) × [Pop × Fr ( H )]i
Nµi =110°0'0"S0°0'0"

N : Number of Earthquake event
Pop : Population per sell
H : Maximum tsunami heightFr(x): Fragility function of humandamageKoshimura et al.,(2009)⎡ H − 5.37 ⎤Fr ( x) = Φ ⎢⎥⎣ 0.72 ⎦Population
20°0'0"SHere, the earthquake probability inNorthern area (> 9S°) is assumed tobe 100 %.

100LandScan 2008

090°0'0"W

80°0'0"W70°0'0"W

21

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
Workshop
Kickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

The tsunami risk in the coast of Peru
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22

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru
The 1stMeeting,Japan ‐ Peru
WorkshopKickoff
10 June,2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Objectives and goals• To
T assess th
the potential
t ti l tsunami
ti didisastert anddits impact to the Peruvian coast• To develop the practical technologies tomitigate tsunami risks in Peru
• To implement the strategic plans for disastermitigation of Peruvian government• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disastermitigation strategies
23