Survey on Heat Pump Diffusion Forecast

16 January 2015
Heat Pump and Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

2

Contents

1. Targets of this survey................................................................................................................. 3
2. Residential water heaters........................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Concept of outlook ............................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Confirmation of markets .................................................................................................... 6
2.2.1 Existing house market ................................................................................................ 6
2.2.2 New house market ................................................................................................... 7
2.3 Estimation of introduction quantity..................................................................................... 9
2.3.1 Concept of classification of target market ................................................................... 9
2.3.2 Results of recent introduction ..................................................................................... 9
2.3.3 Concept of future estimates ...................................................................................... 10
2.3.4 Estimation results of introduction quantity ................................................................ 11
2.4 Estimation of energy-saving effects................................................................................. 122.4.1 Preconditions ............................................................................................................ 122.4.2 Estimation results of energy-saving effects............................................................ 13
3. Residential air conditioners ..................................................................................................... 15
3.1 Concept of outlook .......................................................................................................... 15
3.2 Confirmation of markets................................................................................................... 15
3.2.1 Markets related to wider use of air conditioners for heating instead of
combustion-type heating units .................................................................................. 15
3.2.2 Markets related to replacement purchase from the existing air conditioners to thelatest types ................................................................................................................ 16
3.3 Estimation of introduction quantity .................................................................................. 17
3.3.1 Introduction quantity related to wider use of air conditioners for heating instead of
combustion-type heating units .................................................................................. 17
3.3.2 Introduction quantity related to replacement purchase from the existing air
conditioners to the latest types ................................................................................. 19
3.4 Estimation of energy-saving effects................................................................................. 20
3.4.1 Preconditions ........................................................................................................... 21
3.4.2 Estimation results of energy-saving effects .............................................................. 21
4. Water heaters for commercial use .......................................................................................... 23
4.1 Concept of outlook for proliferation of commercial heat-pump water heaters ................. 23
4.1.1 Grasp of annual water heating demand by types of commercial water heaters....... 23
4.1.2 Assumption of upper limits on the number of commercial heat-pump water heaters to
be introduced ............................................................................................................ 25
4.1.3 Assumption of proliferation curve of commercial heat-pump water heaters ............. 28
4.2 Estimation of introduction quantity of commercial heat-pump water heaters .................. 29
4.2.1 Estimation of introduction quantity (flow basis) of commercial heat-pump water
heaters ...................................................................................................................... 291

4.2.2 Estimation of introduction quantity (stock basis) of commercial heat-pump water
heaters ...................................................................................................................... 30
4.3 Energy-saving effects of commercial heat-pump water heaters ..................................... 31
4.3.1 Preconditions .......................................................................................................... 31
4.3.2 Estimation results of energy-saving effects............................................................ 32
5. Commercial air conditioners ................................................................................................... 34
5.1 Confirmation of markets................................................................................................... 34
5.2 Central systems ............................................................................................................... 35
5.2.1 Estimation of introduction quantity of central systems .............................................. 35
5.2.2 Estimation of energy-saving effects of central systems ............................................ 39
5.3 Building multi split type air conditioners for commercial use ........................................... 40
5.3.1 Estimation of introduction quantity of building multi split type air conditioners forcommercial use ......................................................................................................... 40
5.3.2 Estimation of amount of energy saved by building multi split type air conditioners forcommercial use ......................................................................................................... 44
6.

Industrial use .......................................................................................................................... 45
6.1 Confirmation of markets................................................................................................... 45
6.1.1 Assumption of energy consumption in breakdown by types of boilers for industrial
use ............................................................................................................................ 45
6.2 Estimation of introduction quantity of industrial heat pumps ........................................... 47
6.2.1 Assumption of upper limits on introduction ............................................................... 47
6.2.2 Assumption of proliferation curve of industrial heat pumps ...................................... 50
6.2.3 Assumption of survivor curve of industrial heat pumps ............................................ 51
6.2.4 Estimation results of introduction quantity of industrial heat pump........................... 52
6.3 Estimation of energy-saving effects of industrial heat pumps ......................................... 54
6.3.1 Preconditions ............................................................................................................ 54
6.3.2 Estimation results of energy-saving effects .............................................................. 54

7. Agricultural use ...................................................................................................................... 56
7.1 Concept of outlook for proliferation of agricultural heat pumps ....................................... 56
7.2 Preconditions of outlook for proliferation of agricultural heat pumps .............................. 56
7.2.1 Setting of upper limits on introduction of agricultural heat pumps ........................... 56
7.2.2 Setting of actualization rates for upper limits on introduction of agricultural heatpumps ....................................................................................................................... 58
7.2.3 Setting of proliferation curve of agricultural heat pumps .......................................... 58
7.2.4 Setting of equipment efficiency ................................................................................. 58
7.3 Estimation of and introduction quantity of agricultural heat pumps and energy-saving
effects .............................................................................................................................. 59
8. Conclusion as to outlook for energy-saving effects through proliferation of heat pumps................................................................................................................................................. 60

2

1. Targets of this survey
In this survey, we surveyed promotion of heat pump utilization in the following fields andcalculation of energy-saving effects thereof.

Residential use

・Residential heat-pump water heaters
・Residential heat-pump air conditioners

Commercial use

・Commercial heat-pump water heaters
・Highly efficient air conditioning heat pumps(Building multi split type air conditioners and central systems）

Industrial use

・Heat pumps for air conditioning
・Heating (hot water supply) heat-pump・Heat pumps for low-temperature drying (lower than 100℃)
・Heat pumps at high temperatures of (higher than 100℃)

Agricultural use

・Agricultural heat pumps

In each application, trial calculations of an expected quantity of heat pumps to be
introduced are made on a flow basis and on a stock basis. Then, the energy-saving effects
through replacement from conventional equipment and improvement of equipment
efficiency are calculated on a trial basis.

3

2. Residential water heaters
2.1

Concept of outlook

As for those households that have not introduced residential heat pump water heaters, we
divided the market into a new house market and an existing house market for estimation.
Moreover, we divided the existing buildings into detached houses and apartment houses,and further divided detached houses into the following three types according to the lot areasof houses:
Urban Type I:

Houses with a lot area of less than 75 m2 and abuilding-to-land ratio of 40% or larger

Urban Type II:

Houses with a lot area of less than 150 m2 and abuilding-to-land ratio of 40% or larger

Average scale:Houses other than Urban Types I and II

For apartment houses, we divided them into owned houses and rented houses.
For new houses as well, we divided detached houses into three types according to theirpremises. In case of apartment houses, we divided them into owner-occupied houses andrented houses as is the case with the existing houses.
As for those households that have already introduced heat-pump water heaters, moreover,
we assumed that such households introduce heat-pump water heaters again in renewal of
their water heaters and estimated the quantity thereof.
We made four scenarios based on acquisition rates that are set in respective markets.
Market segment classifications and estimation methods are summarized in Table 2-1.
Future estimations were made by using the latest data on the market and the data on the
recent introduction.

4

Table 2-1
Segment classifications of assumptions of residential heat-pump water heaters
Segment (Unit of analysis)

Estimation methods of energy saving effectAverage scale

Detached
housesUrban Type IOn the assumption that heat-pumpwater heaters will be introduced when

Existing
housesUrban Type II

conventional types of equipment (oil orgas water heaters) are renewed, theOwned houses
ApartmenthousesHouseholds
that
have
not
introduced
heat-pumpwater
heaters

quantityandenergy-saving

effectthereof are estimated.
Rented housesOn the assumption that more efficient
products will be introduced whenheat-pump

Average scalewater

heaters

after

replacement are renewed again, theUrban Type I

cost

Detached
housesreductioneffects

thereofare

estimated.
Urban Type IIIn consideration of the stock vintages
with sale years, in addition to theNewhousesnumberofunits

introduced,

theenergy-saving effects are estimatedApartmenthousesincluding those through replacement.

Owner-occupied
housesRented housesOn the assumption that heat-pumpwater heaters will be introduced again
at the time of renewal, the quantity

Households that have already introduced heat-pumpwater heaters

thereof is estimated.
The

energy-saving

effectsthroughefficiency improvement at the time of
replacement are also included.

5

2.2

Confirmation of markets

In respect of the existing house market and new house market, the following estimations
were made.

2.2.1

Existing house market

As for the existing house market, estimations were made based on the number of housing
stocks.
First, we estimated the number of principal households by age every five years in and after
2010 through 2040, and assumed that the housing stocks will also increase or decrease inproportion to the increase or decrease in the number of principal households. Then, we
divided the housing stocks into detached houses and apartment houses. Detached houses
were divided into Urban Types I and II, and apartment houses were divided into
owner-occupied houses and rented houses. By making future estimation of ratios of detachedhouses and apartment houses based on the most recent trends, the housing stocks ofresiding households are organized in respective years (Fig. 2-1).
Urban Type I : Houses with a lot area of less than 75 m2 and a building-to-land ratio of 40% or larger
Urban Type II : Houses with a lot area of less than 150 m2 and a building-to-land ratio of 40% or larger
Average scale : Houses other than Urban Types I and II

Reference;“Future population estimates of Japan” National Institute of Population and Social Security Research“National census” the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Figure 2-1

Changes in housing stocks (Residing households)

The market of water heaters for exiting houses was estimated by “replacement demand =existing housing stocks with residing households x incidence of replacement.” The
incidence of replacement of water heaters in existing houses is set at 6.27% per year basedon the total quantity of water heaters sold in the existing house market over the past five
years, including gas water heaters and others.
6Based on the points mentioned above, we estimated the future outlook for replacement
demand for water heaters in the existing house market as shown in Fig. 2-2. It can beconsidered that the existing house market itself reduces in proportion to the decrease in
housing stocks.

Figure 2-2
Outlook for replacement demand for water heaters in the existing house market

2.2.2

New house market

As for the new house market, the number of housing starts was estimated by the numericalexpression in consideration of the number of housing stocks with no residing households
such as follows;“Number of housing starts = increase or decrease in the number of households + increase or
decrease in vacant houses + the number of houses reconstructed”
For estimation, the number of households, the number of houses reconstructed and a
breakdown of detached houses and apartment houses were set and estimated based on
publicly available data. As for the future outlook for vacant houses and others, the recent
housing stocks with no residing households on footing are divided into:i)Houses with temporary occupants onlyii) Vacant housesiii) Houses under construction
Then, i) houses with temporary occupants only are set by laying, ii) vacant houses are set by
supplementing with an approximate expression based on the past trends, and iii) houses
under construction are set by linear interpolation (simple reduction) based on the pasttrends.
Based on the points mentioned above, the future outlook for the number of housing starts
was estimated as shown in Fig. 2-3.
7

Reference;“Statistics of New house market of Japan” the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism ,“Population and household statistics”the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Figure 2-3

Outlook for the number of new housing starts

The outlook for the new house market and that for the existing house market are combined
and the outlook for the entire water heater market including gas water heaters is shown in
Fig. 2-4. The more heat-pump water heaters are introduced, the farther the market for
replacement from gas or oil water heaters in the existing house market reduces. Therefore,
to ensure the introduction quantity in the future, it is important to maintain the acquisition
rate in the new house market, steadily implement replacement from heat-pump water
heaters, and maintain and improve the acquisition rate in replacement in the existing housemarket.

Figure 2-4

Outlook for the residential water heaters market

8

2.3

Estimation of introduction quantity

2.3.1

Concept of classification of target market

The respective markets are classified into the following three groups and the rates of
introduction are estimated.
Table 2-2 Classification of target market for estimation of the introduction quantity
Classification of market

Concept

Renewal market

On the assumption that those users who have alreadyintroduced heat-pump water heaters introduce heat-pumpwater heaters again without fail, the introduction quantity
was estimated.
As mentioned earlier, the energy-saving effects of efficiency
improvement by equipment replacement were also realized.

Main target market

On the assumption that main target is a half of detached
and average-scale houses (new and existing houses) +detached and Urban Type II houses (new and existinghouses), the introduction quantity was estimated.

Sub-target market

On the assumption that sub-target is a half of detached and
Urban Type I houses (new and existing houses) + detachedand Urban Type II houses (new and existing houses) + newapartment houses, the introduction quantity wasestimated.

2.3.2

Results of recent introduction

The results of recent introduction of residential heat-pump water heaters were estimated bytypes of houses based on the estimated results of delivery by types of houses as shown in Fig.
2-5 and housing surveys.
The recent results have begun causing divergence from the outlook for stocks of 10 million
units in use in FY2020 as the industry’s target, and the divergence began slightly increasingfrom around 2009. Moreover, after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, theintroduction quantity decreased on a flow basis, and the number of heat-pump water
heaters actually delivered was only 460,000 units per year in 2013 compared with theassumption of 700,000 units per year. It is considered that this is because the introduction
quantity temporarily declined due to the effect of restraint in activities of electric powercompanies to promote heat-pump water heaters after the earthquake disaster. The
introduction quantity began recovering in FY2013. In and after FY2014, the introduction
quantity is expected to increase because of efficiency improvement of heat-pump water
heaters, promotion of energy-saving measures for houses, and resumption of activities ofelectric power companies to promote heat-pump water heaters.
9

Figure 2-5

Estimated results of delivery (by types of houses)of residential heat-pump water heaters

The recent results of introduction are further classified by target markets as shown in Fig.
2-6. The introduction quantity in the existing house market remained relatively stable withthe passing years, while the introduction quantity in the new house market, particularly forexisting detached houses, was significantly reduced in 2011 and 2012.

Figure 2-6

2.3.3

Estimated results of introduction (by target markets)of residential heat-pump water heaters

Concept of future estimates

As mentioned earlier, the introduction quantity in the future was estimated by setting themain market and sub-market and by setting the share in these markets. For estimation,
the introduction quantity was estimated in the following four cases:

101) Low-rank case: The present trends continue with no additional measures.
2) Middle-rank case: The market shares are improved by implementing measures such as
subsidies for introduction.
3) High-rank case: The market shares are improved by promotion measures.
4) Reference case: The market itself is expanded by regulations on replacement and others.
Present→2020

2020→2030

2030→2040

Low-rank

The market shares remain in thesame trends.

The market shares are assumed toremain in the same trends.

The market shares are assumed toremain in the same trends.

Middle-rank

The market shares increase
because of housing eco-points
and others.

The effects of housing eco-points
and others continue and the market
shares remain in the same trends.

The effects of housing eco-points andothers continue and the market
shares remain in the same trends.

High-rank

The market shares increase
becauseofregistrationofrecommended equipment andothersduetomandatorycompliancewithenergyconservation standards.

The market shares increase becauseof commencement of mandatorycompliancewithenergyconservation standards.

The effects of mandatory compliancewith energy conservation standards
continue and the market sharesremain in the same trends.

Reference

The market shares increase
because of housing eco-points
and others.

The market of water heaters for the
existing houses expands because ofregulations on replacement.

The market of water heaters for the
existing houses expands because ofregulations on replacement.

Figure 2-7

2.3.4

Future scenario of residential heat-pump water heaters

Estimation results of introduction quantity

As the number of units delivered temporarily decreased because of the effect of restraint in
activities of electric power companies to promote heat-pump water heaters after the Great
East Japan Earthquake in 2011, it is difficult to achieve stocks of 10 million units in use in
FY2020 only by continuing the present efforts.
In and after FY2014, however, the number of units to be introduced is expected to risebecause of efficiency improvement of heat-pump water heaters, promotion of energy-saving
measures for houses, and resumption of activities of electric power companies to promoteheat-pump water heaters. Consequently it is possible to achieve stocks of 10 million units
in FY2021 (or in FY2023 in middle- and low-rank cases and in reference case). As assumed
in high-rank case, furthermore, it is also expected to achieve the stocks of 10 million units in
FY2020, depending on additional measures to be taken by FY2020.
Moreover, if the government and private sectors continue to make their integrated efforts
for proliferation of heat-pump water heater in and after FY2020, proliferation of about 16
million units is possible in FY2030 as seen in middle- and high-rank cases and reference
case, excluding low-rank case.

11

Figure 2-8
Estimation results of number of introduced units of residential heat-pump water heaters

2.4

Estimation of energy-saving effects

Based on the estimation results of introduction quantity, energy-saving effects were
estimated by using the information about efficiency on heat pumps to be sold in respective
fiscal years. In the case of replacement from heat-pump water heaters to heat-pump water
heaters, the efficiency will also be improved on its flow basis. Therefore, it can beconsidered that energy conservation will also be achieved to a certain extent.
Energy-saving effects were estimated including the effects through such replacement.

2.4.1

Preconditions(1) Assumption of efficiency
The annual water heating and heat insulating efficiencies (JIS) of heat-pump water heaters
are set as shown in Table 2-3. As for heat-pump water heaters, future assumed values are
set by weighted average values based on the number of units delivered in 2010 by assuming
the improvement rates for achieving the reference values of the Top Runner Program in
FY2017 from the recent results by three types, general climate type, cold climate area typeand small type and on the assumption that the efficiency becomes higher in the future. For
reference, the efficiency of gas and oil water heaters replaced is set at 78% (HHV) on stock
average in FY2012.

12

Table 2-3 Flow efficiency of various residential water heaters
Heat-pump water heaters(annual water heating and heatinsulating efficiencies (JIS))

Year 2020

Year 2030

Year 2040

3.29

3.61

3.94

(2) Assumption of water heating demand per household
Water heating demand per household is set at 18,000 MJ per unit a year as is the case withthe assumption made by the Study Group on Promotion of Wide Use of CO2-refrigerant
Heat-pump Water Heaters.
(3) Assumption of ratios of conventional water heaters
The ratios of conventional water heaters (based on the amount of hot water supplied) are set
as follows as is the case with the Study Group on Promotion of Wide Use of CO2-refrigerant
Heat-pump Water Heaters:
Gas water heaters: 75%, oil water heaters: 20%, and electric water heaters: 5%

2.4.2

Estimation results of energy-saving effects

The energy-saving effects that were estimated under these conditions are as follows. All ofthem represent the amount of energy saved from the starting point in 2012.
The effect of reduction in primary energy by proliferation of heat-pump water heaters is
estimated to be 123 million GJ per year to 165 million GJ per year in 2030. The effect of
reduction in primary energy by proliferation of heat-pump water heaters until 2012amounted to as much as 31 million GJ per year. And, such energy-saving effect is expected
to increase by about twice as much by 2020. In 2040, proliferation of about 18 million units
is expected to realize energy savings of 170 million GJ to 205 million GJ per year.
Table 2-4 Number of stock and Estimation results of energy-saving effects (2012 base）

Number of stock(0.01 million units)

Effect of reduction in primary energy（Thousand GJ/Year）

2020

2030

2040

Low-rank

852

1,432

1,695

Middle-rank

932

1,641

1,847

High-rank

1,008

1,827

1,987

Low-rank

49,344

122,749

170,246

Middle-rank

57,230145,194

188,300

High-rank

64,701

164,984

204,88913

Figure 2-9

Results of the amount of reduction in primary energy（2012 base）

14

3. Residential air conditioners
3.1

Concept of outlook

The performance and efficiency of residential air conditioners have much been improved inrecent years. It is considered possible to make a great contribution to energy conservation byencouraging the use of such highly efficient heat pumps for heating in houses. Though it isconsidered that utilization of air conditioners for heating have already been increasing, it ispossible to further improve the utilization rate and promote energy conservation inresidential sector by promoting proliferation and raising awareness of advantages of using
air conditioners for residential heating.
Due to the application of the Top Runner Program and others, the efficiency of residential
air conditioners has been improved, including cooling operation. It is considered possible to
make a great contribution to residential energy conservation by encouraging replacement
purchase from the aged existing air conditioners to the latest types.
Here, we assumed some cases where the use of air conditioners for heating and replacement
purchase from the existing air conditioners to the latest types are facilitated by theabove-mentioned approaches, and calculated the energy-saving effects in these cases on a
trial basis.

3.2

Confirmation of markets

3.2.1 Markets related to wider use of air conditioners for heating instead of
combustion-type heating units
It can be thought that wider use of air conditioners for heating leads to reduction inconventional heating units such as residential fan heaters and oil or gas heaters. Here, wegrasped the current status of the market of residential fan heaters and oil or gas heaters to
be replaced by air conditioners based on the existing statistics.
For the quantity of conventional heating units actually delivered (flow) as shown in Fig. 3-1,
the number of gas heating units has remained almost unchanged but that of oil heating
units has been decreasing since the middle of the 1990s.

15Reference; “Census of Manufacture”“Yearbook of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, fabricated metals statistic data”
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Figure 3-1

Changes in number of conventional heating units actually delivered

3.2.2
Markets related to replacement purchase from the existing air conditioners to
the latest types(1) Quantity of units actually delivered
The quantity of residential air conditioners actually delivered is set based on voluntary
statistics of the Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association (JRAIA).
As shown in Fig. 3-2, the number of residential air conditioners delivered has continued torise.

Reference;“National shipments of each product” JRAIA

Figure 3-2

Changes in number of residential air conditioners

Then, we estimated the stock amount of residential air conditioners by assuming survivor
curves in proportion to the number of years passed after installation based on the data ofannual quantity of delivery until the latest year that we organized such data as mentioned
16

above. Here, the survivor curves are set to make the survival rates to be 50% at the time
when the estimated average usage period of air conditioners is 11.8 years (according to
2011-2012 data from “Consumer Behavior Survey” of the Cabinet Office).
The estimation results of the recent stock amount of residential air conditioners, which arecalculated based on the assumptions mentioned above, are shown in Fig. 3-3.

Figure 3-3

Estimation results of the stock amount of residential air conditioners

For reference, according to “Consumer Behavior Survey” of the Cabinet Office, theownership rate of air conditioners in a family of two or more was 89% in 2010 and thenumber of air conditioners owned per household was about 2.6 units. Here, if theownership rate of air conditioners in one-person households is assumed to be 89% and thenumber of air conditioners owned per household is assumed to be one unit, the stock amountof air conditioners is estimated to be 110 million units as there are 52 million households
and the share of one-person households is 32% in 2010 according to “National Census.”
This is consistent with the stock amount and order amount estimated by the quantity ofdelivery as adopted in this survey. Therefore, it is judged that the assumption of survivor
curves of air conditioners set by this survey generally reflects the reality.

3.3

Estimation of introduction quantity

3.3.1
Introduction quantity related to wider use of air conditioners for heating
instead of combustion-type heating units
If the use of residential air conditioners for heating increases, they will be used asalternatives to the existing heating units. Therefore, it is likely to lead the reduction of thenumber of fan heaters and oil or gas heaters to be delivered. Here, we set a future scenarioof the replacement market by promotion of use of air conditioners for heating instead of
conventional heating units as regarding “Wider use of residential air conditioners forheating = decrease in the number of fan heaters and oil or gas heaters to be delivered” on the17assumption that one residential air conditioner is used for heating in proportion to adecrease by one fan heater or one oil or gas heater.
Specifically, we assumed a Business As Usual (BAU) case in terms of the quantity of
conventional heating units to be delivered by taking into account that the quantity of
conventional heating units delivered has been in a downward trend in recent years, and set
three future scenarios in comparison with BAU.
Table 3-1 Scenarios of the promotion of use of air conditioners for heating
instead of conventional heating units
Scenario

Details

Low-rank

The quantity of conventional heating units to be delivered changes linearly
to the level of 75% compared with BAU case as of 2030 and then changes
in the same trend as the future changes in the number of housing stocks.

Middle-rank

The quantity of conventional heating units to be delivered changes linearly
to the level of 50% compared with BAU case as of 2030 and then changes
in the same trend as the future changes in the number of housing stocks.

High-rank

The quantity of conventional heating units to be delivered changes linearly
to the level of 25% compared with BAU case as of 2030 and then changes
in the same trend as the future changes in the number of housing stocks.

※BAU: The same trend as that seen in the future changes in the number of housing stocks after 2013
based on the average value (5.5 million units/year) from 2008 to 2012

Figure3-4

Future scenarios of the quantity of conventional heating units delivered

18

Figure 3-5
Future scenarios of flow of air conditioners replacing the conventional heating units

3.3.2
Introduction quantity related to replacement purchase from the existing air
conditioners to the latest types
The quantity of stocks of air conditioners, excluding replacement from conventional heating
units mentioned above, was assumed to remain unchanged in the future. Based on thisassumption, we estimated the amount of replacement purchase from the existing air
conditioners to the latest types by counting backward from the quantity of disposal which
are estimated from survivor curves and the quantity of stocks.
Quantity of units delivered is
calculated based on an inverse
operation from the quantity ofstocks and the quantity of disposal.

Figure 3-6 Future scenario of flow of air conditioners,
excluding replacement from conventional heating units19

As calculated above, the quantity of air conditioners to be proliferated in the future is asfollows. The stocks of residential air conditioners are expected to increase from 92 million
units in 2012 to 105 ～126 million units in 2030 as a result of promotion of use of air
conditioners for heating instead of conventional heating units.
Table 3-2
Results of calculation of the quantity of stock of air conditioners thousand units
Year
Year
Year
2012
2020
2030

Year
2040

Low-rank

0

3,084

11,247

15,253

Middle-rank

0

5,676

21,77230,395High-rank

0

8,268

32,29745,536

91,78994,17094,17094,170

By promotion of use of air conditioners
for heating instead of gas or oil heaters

Existing air conditioners excluding
replacement from conventional
heating units

Figure 3-7

3.4

Results of calculation of the quantity of stock of air conditioners

Estimation of energy-saving effects

Based on the estimation results of introduction quantity, energy-saving effects were
estimated by using the information about efficiency on heat pumps sold in respective fiscal
years.

20

3.4.1

Preconditions(1) Assumption of equipment efficiency
As for the efficiency of air conditioners, the average value of air conditioners delivered in2010 (for an area of six to nine tatami mats) is APF 6.1. In consideration of this level, we
assumed that APF 8.0 is achieved by air conditioners to be delivered in 2030 and APF 8.5 by
air conditioners to be delivered in 2040. The efficiency of gas or oil heaters as conventional
heating units is assumed to remain unchanged at 75% in the future
Table 3-3 Flow efficiency of residential air conditioners, gas or oil heaters
Appliances

Year
2010

Year
2020

Year
2030

Year
2040

Air conditioners

APF 6.1

APF 7.1

APF 8.0

APF 8.5

Gas or oil heaters

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.75

(2) Assumption of air-conditioning demand per household
According to “Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics,” the amount of energy consumed
per household for cooling and heating in 2012 was 8.9 GJ for fossil fuels and 2.5 GJ forelectric power. These values are multiplied by the equipment efficiencies of oil or gas
heaters and air conditioners, respectively, to calculate their service demand, and thedemand was divided by the number of units owned per household and the amount of heat
supplied per unit of respective types of equipment was assumed as shown in the table below.
Table 3-4 Assumption of the amount of heat supplied per unit
Appliances

amount of heat supplied

Annual amount of heating per oil or gas heater:
Amount of heating per air conditioner for promotion of use of air
conditioners for heating instead of oil or gas heater
Annual amount of cooling and heating per air conditioner:
Amount of cooling and heating per air conditioner for
replacement of the existing air conditioner

3.4.2

5.3GJ/Unit

7.8GJ/Unit

Estimation results of energy-saving effects

The energy-saving effects as calculated based on the above description are shown below. The
effects of reduction in primary energy use due to wider use of air conditioners for heating
instead of gas or oil heaters and renewal of conventional air conditioners to the latest units
are expected to be 140 to 247 PJ (3.61 million to 6.39 million kl) in 2030.

21

Table 3-5 Results of calculation of the amount of reductions of primary energy(starting point: 2012)
Unit: Thousand GJ/Year

By promotion of use of
air conditioners forheating instead of gas oroil heaters

Year 2020

Year 2030

Year 2040

Low-rank

15,12557,39180,045

Middle-rank

27,841

111,142

159,517

High-rank

40,556

164,892

238,989

42,86782,600107,576

Existing air conditioners
excluding those replaced
from conventional
heating units

22

4. Water heaters for commercial use
4.1

Concept of outlook for proliferation of commercial heat-pump water heaters

4.1.1

Grasp of annual water heating demand by types of commercial water heaters

To assume the quantity of commercial heat-pump water heaters to be proliferated in the
future, first of all, we organized total floor areas by applications in business fields and alsoorganized breakdowns of total floor areas by scales of buildings and detailed applications.
We also estimated the quantity of total floor area stocks by classifying applications into “coldclimate areas” and “general areas.” Cold climate areas are defined below. Based on thedata of total floor areas by prefectures, we calculated and estimated the ratios of total floor
areas of “cold climate areas and general areas” by applications.
【Definitions of cold climate areas and general areas】
Cold climate areas: Hokkaido, Tohoku District (Aomori Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture,
Akita Prefecture, Yamagata Prefecture and Fukushima
Prefecture, Hokuriku District (Niigata Prefecture, Toyama
Prefecture, Ishikawa Prefecture and Fukui Prefecture)
General areas: Areas other than those mentioned above
Then, we estimated the water heating demand in business fields by using the intensities ofannual water heating demand per total floor area by industry and scale based on the data of
total floor areas.

23

Table 4-1 Setting of the water heating demand by industry and scale
Total floor areas(Million ㎡)

Hot water
supply unit

（Mcal/㎡・（MJ/㎡・

Year）

Year）

Generalareas

Coldclimateareas－

10,106

8,840

1,267

2.2

9.2

1,478

1,293

185

2.2

9.2

1,107

968

139

10

2.2

9.2

750

656

94

Generalareas

Coldclimate
areas

482

422

60

－

699 ㎡ or less

161

140

20

700 - 2,999 ㎡

120

105

15

3,000 - 9,999 ㎡

81

71

10,000 ㎡ or more

Annual water heating demand(Thousand GJ/Year)
Total

Total
Offices

120

105

15

13.5

56.5

6,771

5,922

849

470

398

73

－

－

45,28938,3096,981

699 ㎡ or less

130

110

20

23

96.3

12,506

10,5781,928

700 - 2,999 ㎡

110

93

17

23

96.3

10,544

8,918

1,625

Stores3,000 - 9,999 ㎡

71

60

11

23

96.3

6,854

5,798

1,056

10,000 ㎡ or more

160

135

25

23

96.3

15,386

13,014

2,371

66

55

10

135

565

37,071

31,357

5,714

363

296

67

－

－

16,67013,617

3,053

Nursery schools

16

13

3

45.1

188.8

2,998

2,412

586

Kindergartens

13

11

2

2.9

12.1

163

139

25

255

204

51

8.9

37.3

9,482

7,590

1,892

Universities

60

52

8

13.2

55.3

3,308

2,881

427

Others schools

19

16

3

8.9

37.3

718

595

123

92

74

19

－

－

30,943

24,6856,258

699 ㎡ or less

25

20

5

80

335

8,400

6,701

1,699

700 - 2,999 ㎡

26

21

5

80

335

8,728

6,963

1,765

3,000 - 9,999 ㎡

21

16

4

80

335

6,906

5,509

1,397

10,000 ㎡ or more

21

16

4

80

335

6,909

5,512

1,397

111

88

22

－

－

37,10529,632

7,473

Restaurants and bars
Schools

Elementary,highandschools

juniorhighHotelsHospitals
Clinics

29

24

5

80

335

9,860

8,059

1,801

Hospitals

81

64

17

80

335

27,245

21,572

5,672

251

200

51

－

－

36,642

29,231

7,410

Welfare facilities

32

25

6

53

222

7,084

5,652

1,433

Beautyandhairdressing services

15

12

3

120

502

7,373

5,882

1,491

Sport facilities

4,286
places3,419
places867 places

875Gcal/pla
ce

3,663GJ/pla
ce

15,69912,524

3,175

OthersTotal

Hot water
supply unit

Golf courses

8

7

2

160

670

5,566

4,440

1,126

Theaters, amusement
places

36

29

7

1.2

5.0

180

144

36

Others
above

147

117

30

1.2

5.0

740

590

150

1,835

1,533

302

－

213,826.
0

175,670

38,156thantheReference;“The Energy Data and Modelling Center” and others244.1.2
Assumption of upper limits on the number of commercial heat-pump water
heaters to be introduced
It is not necessarily possible to introduce commercial heat-pump water heaters in allcommercial buildings. Pros and cons of introduction are depending on applications andscales of buildings. Here, as shown in the table below, we judged the suitability of
introduction upon grasping typical hot water supply systems now in use by applications andscales of buildings, and assumed the annual operation time of heat-pump water heaters byapplications and scales of buildings.
Assessment of suitability of introduction based on the current status of theexisting hot water supply systems

Offices699 ㎡ or less700-2,999 ㎡
3,000-9,999 ㎡
10,000 ㎡
or moreStores699 ㎡ or less700-2,999 ㎡
3,000-9,999 ㎡
10,000 ㎡

Hot water is mainly required and used in lavatories and office kitchens. In
the past, there were cases where boilers and hot water supply pipes were
installed in buildings. At present, however, as small water heaters orelectric water heaters are usually installed at places where hot water isrequired in many cases, it is often difficult to introduce heat-pump water
heaters. But, in the case of large buildings with a total floor area of morethan 10,000 m2, restaurants and bars are tenanted in many cases, andheat-pump water heaters can be introduced.

Kindergartens
Elementary, junior
high
and
high
schools
Universities

699 ㎡ or less700-2,999 ㎡
3,000-9,999 ㎡

ᇞ○

Hot water is required mainly in kitchens and gas water heaters or otherheaters are used. As is the case with residential types, hot water demandcan be met by once-through-type heat-pump water supply systems.

○

Nursery schools always have kitchen equipment and a high demand for hot
water. In the case of elementary, junior high and high schools, hot water
demand is generated from those schools with meal preparation facilities.
In the case of universities, hot water is required in cafeterias and gymnasia
for shower rooms and swimming pools in some cases. In the case ofkindergartens and other schools, there is little demand for hot water andhot water is required mainly in lavatories.

Other schools

HotelsᇞᇞᇞᇞSchools
Nursery schoolsᇞ

As is the case with offices, hot water is mainly required and used inlavatories and office kitchens in the case of stores and hot water is mainly
supplied at local points. Therefore, it is often difficult to introduce
heat-pump water heaters. However, in the case of large-scale stores andshopping malls, restaurants and bars are tenanted in many cases, andheat-pump water heaters can be introduced.

or moreRestaurants and bars

Suitability of
introduction of
HP water heater

In any scale, a large amount of hot water is required in lavatories, shower
rooms, communal bathrooms and restaurants. Such hot water demand isbasically met fully by central hot water supply systems (circulation types)that have hot water boilers and hot water tanks, and heat-pump water
heaters can be introduced. In the case of large-scale city hotels, hot water
is often used in kitchens for sterilization and drying and steam is used inlinen room. And, steam boilers are used as heat sources in many cases.

25

○

○
ᇞ
○
○
ᇞ

○
○
○

At present, it is difficult to introduce heat-pump water heaters for renewal
in such cases. However, as linen services are increasingly outsourced andelectric equipment are widely used to sterilize and dry tableware, thedemand for hot water in such hotels can be met by heat-pump water heaters
in the future. As the demand for hot water in large city hotels is basicallylarge, heat-pump water heaters have size problems and others, but it isconsidered possible to make them suitable to all hotels in the future by
downsizing them.

10,000 ㎡
or moreHospitals

Hot water is required at many places in buildings such as lavatories, shower
rooms and bathrooms, and such demand is met fully by central hot watersupply systems (circulation types) that have hot water boilers and hot watertanks in many cases. Clinics have instantaneous gas water heaters inmany cases. In any case, heat-pump water heaters can be introduced.
With regard to large-scale hospitals, steam boilers are used in some cases as
steam is required for sterilization. In recent years, however, the use of
steam tends to be disliked and sterilizers are used at individual points inmany cases. Therefore, heat-pump water heaters can be introduced inlarge-scale hospitals as well.

Clinics

Hospitals

Others

Welfare facilities

Beauty and hair
dressing services

Sport facilities

Golf courses

Theaters,
Amusement places

Others
above

than

the

Hot water is required in kitchens, bathrooms and private rooms. Basically,such demand is met fully by central hot water supply systems (circulation
types) that have hot water boilers and hot water tanks. In kitchens, water
heaters are separately installed in many cases. In any case, heat-pumpwater heaters can be introduced.
A large amount of hot water is required at shampoo basins. As it is largely
needed to keep hot water at a constant temperature and pressure, hot water
boilers are often used for beauty and hair dressing services. It is easy toapply heat-pump water heaters as the temperature of hot water from theirtanks is constant.
Hot water is required at shower rooms, lavatories and heated swimming
pools. Basically, such demand is met by central hot water supply systems(circulation types) that use hot water boilers. Heating on the poolside isprovided by hot water from hot water tanks in many cases. At present,
sports facilities are one of the typical applications for which manyheat-pump water heaters are introduced.
Demand for hot water is generated at many places such as kitchens,
lavatories and shower rooms. Hot water is also used for heating inbathrooms. Basically, such demand is met fully by central hot watersupply systems (circulation types) that have hot water boilers and hot watertanks. Heat-pump water heaters can be introduced.
In building other than those mentioned above, hot water is required mainly
in lavatories and office kitchens and hot water is supplied mainly at local
points. Therefore, it is considered difficult to introduce heat-pump water
heaters in many cases.

26

○

○

○

○
○
○
○

ᇞ

ᇞ

(1)

Users whose introduction appropriateness is “ ○ ”

Those applications of which introduction appropriateness is “ ○ ” are assumed as buildings
where the present commercial heat-pump water heaters will come into wider use. However,proliferation in cold climate areas is likely to be slower than that in general areas. The
proliferation of commercial heat pumps in general areas is set to begin in 2002, while that incold climate areas is set to start in 2014.
In respect of the scale of buildings, the output of heat pumps to be introduced in small-scalebuildings such as restaurants and bars and the output of heat pumps to be introduced inlarge-scale buildings such as hotels and hospitals are different. Here, it is assumed that a
4.5-kW type commercial heat-pump water heater is introduced in a small building where the
hot water demand is small and a 22-kW type commercial heat-pump water heater isintroduced in a large building where hot water demand is large, and single unit capacities
are assumed for each building category.
Consequently, the number of 4.5-kW type commercial heat-pump water heaters that can be
introduced in buildings whose introduction appropriateness is “ ○ ” is estimated to be 5,022
thousand units, and that of 22-kW type is estimated to be 1,097 thousand units. On a 22-kW
basis, the number is equivalent to 2,124 thousand units.
(2)

Users whose introduction appropriateness is “ᇞ”As for those applications of which introduction appropriateness is “ᇞ,” hot water is used atmany local points. So, it is difficult for the present heat-pump water heaters to cope withthem. At present, however, the development of “downsized” heat pumps mainly forhousehold use is underway. In the future, it is likely to commercialize those heat-pumpwater heaters that can be installed at local points such as places under sinks. Here, it isassumed that those types that can supply hot water at local points with a heating capacity of
about 1 kW are introduced in buildings whose introduction appropriateness is “ᇞ” in andafter 2014.
As a result, the number of 1-kW type commercial heat-pump water heaters that can be
introduced in buildings whose introduction appropriateness is “ᇞ” is estimated to be 3,053
thousand units. On a 22-kW basis, the number is equivalent to 139 thousand units.

27

Table 4-2 Introduction appropriateness of commercial heat-pump water heaters
・Timing of proliferation is different between general areas
Applications of which
introduction
appropriateness is “○”and cold climate areas.
General areas: Commercial heat-pump water
heaters have been gradually introduced since 2002.
Cold climate areas: Introduction started in 2014.
・It is assumed that either “4.5-kW” type or “22-kW” type isintroduced in proportion to the scale of buildings.

Applications of which
introduction
appropriateness is “ᇞ”

4.1.3

It is assumed that small heat-pump water heaters (with aheating capacity of about 1 kW) that can supply hot water at
local points are introduced in and after 2014.

Assumption of proliferation curve of commercial heat-pump water heaters

The most recent numbers of commercial heat-pump water heaters delivered are shown in
Fig. 4-1. The number of commercial heat-pump water heaters delivered at an early stage ofproliferation slowly increased until FY2011 and then decreased again in FY2012 andFY2013.

Figure 4-1 Actual numbers of introduction of commercial heat-pump water heaters delivered
In setting the proliferation curves of commercial heat-pump water heaters, the concept oflogistic curves was used. Here, it was assumed that the introduction flow changes inaccordance with the logistic curve shown in Fig. 4-2, which is approximated based on theactual introduction of similar equipment.

28

Figure 4-2

4.2

Assumption of the proliferation curves of commercial heat-pump water heaters

Estimation of introduction quantity of commercial heat-pump water heaters

The upper limit on the number of units to be introduced as specified above is a potential in
the case where the introduction of commercial heat-pump water heaters is promoted to thegreatest extent possible. In reality, however, it is difficult to introduce the upper-limit
number of units due to various conditions. Here, we set several cases in proportion to theratio of actual introduction to the potential, i.e., high-rank case (actualization rate is 70%),
middle-rank case (50%) and low-rank case (30%).

4.2.1
Estimation of introduction quantity (flow basis) of commercial heat-pump water
heaters
The numbers of units to be introduced (flow basis) in the middle-rank case are shown in thetable below by area and capacity.
The introduction of units for general areas started in 2002 but remained slows for a while.
The introduction is expected to begin accelerating after about 20 years later in 2020, reachthe peak in around 2030 and remain almost unchanged until 2040.
On the other hand, the introduction of units for cold climate areas and 1-kW units is
assumed to start in 2014. As the proliferation curve does not start up in the first 10 years,
the number of units to be introduced in 2020 is still at a low level. The number of units to
be introduced has started increasing in 2030 and sufficient proliferation is expected in aslate as 2040.

29

Table 4-3 Comparison of numbers of the flow of units to be introduced
by area and capacity (middle-rank case)
Units: Thousand

2020

2030

2040

22kW (General areas)

12.4

44.6

44.7

22kW (Cold climate areas)

0.0

0.9

10.1

4.5kW (General areas)

57.5

206.7

207.2

4.5kW (Cold climate areas)

0.0

3.8

43.6

1ｋW

0.0

13.1

151.2

Total

69.9

269.1

456.9

Also, the changes in capacity of heat-pump water heaters to be introduced (flow basis) by
area and capacity in the middle-rank case are shown in Fig. 4-3. As mentioned earlier, theproliferation of units for general areas is set to start in 2002 and that for cold climate areasand 1-kW units in 2014. Consequently, it can be seen that the proliferation of units for cold
climate areas and that of 1-kW units come late in and after the 2030s. For reference, theperiod from 2006 to 2013 is based on the aforesaid actual value of commercial heat-pumpwater heaters introduced and the period in and after 2014 is linked to estimated values.

Figure 4-3

Comparison of capacities of the flow of units to be introduced
by area and capacity (middle-rank case)

4.2.2
Estimation of introduction quantity (stock basis) of commercial heat-pumpwater heaters
The numbers of units to be introduced (stock basis) in the middle-rank case are shown in thetable below by area and capacity. In stocks as well, units for general areas drive theintroduction quantity ahead. However, the point that stocks can be expected to grow fromthe 2030s through the 2040s is different from flows.

30

In response to a rapid increase in flows in the 2030s, the introduction quantity of units forcold climate areas and 1-kW units is expected to increase from the 2030s through the 2040s.
Table 4-4Comparison of numbers of the stock of units to be introduced
by area and capacity (middle-rank case)
Units: Thousand

2020

2030

2040

22kW (General areas)

31.5

362.8

468.2

22kW (Cold climate areas)

0.0

1.8

68.1

4.5kW (General areas)

135.0

1,679.7

2,168.0

4.5kW (Cold climate areas)

0.0

7.6

293.9

1ｋW

0.0

26.5

1,019.8

Total

166.5

2078.3

4,018.1

Also, the changes in capacity of heat-pump water heaters to be introduced (stock basis) by
area and capacity in the middle-rank case are shown in the figure below. In this case, theperiod from 2006 to 2013 is also based on the accumulated amount of the aforesaid actual
values (flows) of commercial heat-pump water heaters introduced and the period in andafter 2014 is linked to estimated values.

Figure 4-4Comparison of capacities of the stock of units to be introduced
by area and capacity (middle-rank case)

4.3

Energy-saving effects of commercial heat-pump water heaters

4.3.1

Preconditions

The energy-saving effects of replacement from conventional boilers to heat-pump water
heaters were estimated. Specifically, energy-saving effects were estimated based on theestimation results of quantity of heat-pump water heaters to be introduced by using theinformation about the efficiency based on the sale of boilers and heat-pump water heaters in
31

respective fiscal years. The efficiencies of respective units are set based on various surveys
as shown in the table below.
Table 4-5 Efficiencies of heat-pump water heaters and boilers

4.3.2

2020

2030

2040

Heat-pump water heaters (General areas)

4.81

5.40

6.01

Heat-pump water heaters (Cold Climate areas)

4.54

5.10

5.69

Heat-pump water heaters (1kW)

5.50

6.00

6.50

Boilers

0.78

0.78

0.78

Estimation results of energy-saving effects

The energy-saving effects (reductions from the 2012 level) in the middle-rank case areshown in Table 4-6 by area and capacity.
There are small energy-saving effects in the cross section of 2020 when the proliferation
speed that remains slow for a while after commencement of proliferation is reflected andwhen it is assumed that sufficient proliferation cannot be expected for a while. But, if
heat-pump water heaters come into wider use over the long term, large energy-saving effects
can be expected. However, the difference between heat-pump water heaters for generalareas and those for cold climate areas is obvious, and the energy-saving effects of the units
for cold climate areas are expected to be fully demonstrated further later.
However, because of the assumption that the efficiency of heat-pump water heaters
continues to go up in and after 2030 in proportion to the increase in stocks, it is consideredthat energy-saving effects continue to rise from 2030 through 2040.
In 2040, energy-saving effects of 80,000,000 GJ per year can be expected by all units in total.
Table 4-6 Comparison of energy-saving effects by area and capacity (Middle-rank case)
Unit: Thousand GJ/Year

2020

2030

2040

1,693

26,35736,189

0

129

5,233

1,323

19,53826,755

4.5kW (Cold climate areas)

0

88

3,578

1ｋW

0

258

10,246

Total

3,016

46,37082,00122kW (General areas)
22kW (Cold climate areas)
4.5kW (General areas)

Also, the changes in energy-saving effects by area and capacity in the middle-rank case areshown in Fig. 4-5. It shows reduction effects compared with the 2012 level but it can befound that the effects are not realized in the first five years from FY2013 and the effects
become large in around 2020.

32

Figure 4-5Comparison of the amount of energy-saving effects
by area and capacity (Middle-rank case)33

5. Commercial air conditioners
5.1

Confirmation of markets

As is the case with commercial heat-pump water heaters, the data of total floor areas ofbuildings in commercial sector are organized.
Then, based on the data of total floor areas, we estimated the installed cooling capacity andcooling and heating demand in commercial sector by using the intensity of installed cooling
capacity per total floor area by application and the intensity of annual cooling and heating
demand by application. The intensity of installed cooling capacity per total floor area andthe intensity of annual cooling and heating demand are set based on various pieces of theexisting literature such as “Private Sector Energy Data Survey” by the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan and others.
Moreover, as air-conditioning systems are generally decided by the applications and scalesof buildings in many cases, here we assumed the types of typical systems (central systems,
building multi split type air conditioners and package air conditioners) that are introduced
for respective applications and scales.
Based on the assumption mentioned above, we assumed the installed capacity and coolingdemand by type of systems as shown in Fig. 5-1. The total stock capacity of building multi
split type air conditioners is 54.9 million kW and that of central systems is 57.2 million kW.

34

Table 5-1 Installed air conditioning capacity for commercial use

Offices699㎡ or less
700 - 2,999㎡
3,000 - 9,999㎡
10,000㎡ or more
Stores699㎡ or less
700 - 2,999㎡
3,000 - 9,999㎡
10,000㎡ or more
Restaurants and bars
Schools
Nursery schools
Kindergartens
Elementary, juniorhigh and highschools
Universities
Others schools
Hotels699㎡ or less
700 - 2,999㎡
3,000 - 9,999㎡
10,000㎡ or more
Hospitals
Clinics
Hospitals
Others
Welfare facilities
Beauty and hair
dressing services
Sport facilities
Golf courses
Theaters,
amusement places
Others than the abo

5.2

Total floor
areas

Intensity of
installed
capacity

Installed
capacity

Intensity ofcoolingdemandIntensity ofheatingdemandTotal ofcoolingdemandTotal ofheatingdemand(Million ㎡)（kW/㎡）(Million kW）(GJ/㎡)(GJ/㎡)

0.01
0.01(Million
GJ/Year）
57.7
14.45
11.58
12.30
19.36
124.1
28.46
26.27
13.95
55.46
14.80
9.0
0.30
0.26

(Million
GJ/Year）
25.5
6.40
5.13
5.45
8.57
34.8
7.97
7.35
3.91
15.53
4.14
4.0
0.13
0.11

482
161
120
81
120
470
130
110
71
160
66
363
16
13

－
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
－
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
－
0.08
0.08

50.4
16.8
12.6
8.5
12.5
65.6
18.1
15.3
9.9
22.3
9.2
30.0
1.3
1.1

－
0.09
0.10
0.15
0.16
－
0.22
0.24
0.20
0.35
0.23
－
0.02
0.02

255

0.08

21.0

0.02

0.01

4.88

2.16

60
19
92
25
26
21
21
111
29
81
251
32

0.08
0.08
－
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
－
0.10
0.10
－
0.12

4.9
1.6
8.1
2.2
2.3
1.8
1.8
11.6
3.1
8.5
28.0
3.7

0.04
0.04
－
0.05
0.19
0.24
0.26
－
0.06
0.20
－
0.20

0.02
0.02

0.19

2.66
0.86
16.4
1.20
4.87
4.87
5.47
18.3
1.75
16.55
62.9
6.50

1.18
0.38
13.1
0.96
3.89
3.90
4.37
16.9
1.62
15.31
23.3
6.01

15

0.14

2.0

0.14

0.06

2.06

0.91

13
8

0.08
0.10

1.0
0.9

0.08
0.21

0.03
0.06

0.99
1.76

0.44
0.49

36

0.12

4.2

0.17

0.08

6.19

2.74

147

0.11

16.2

0.31

0.09

45.36

12.70

0.04
0.04
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.05
0.10
0.06

0.04
0.15
0.19
0.21
0.05
0.19

Central systems

As for central air-conditioning systems for commercial use, we assumed replacement fromconventional absorption refrigerators to highly efficient heat-pump heat source equipment
and estimated the introduction quantity of and the amount of energy to be saved byheat-pump heat source equipment.

5.2.1

Estimation of introduction quantity of central systems(1) Assumption of upper limits on introduction quantity of central systems
Of the installed air-conditioning capacities for commercial use, the total of the installed
air-conditioning capacities whose applied systems are central systems, i.e., the alternative
potential of central systems as stocks, is 57.2 million kW as described above. Whereas, theaverage service life of heat-pump heat source equipment of central systems is assumed to be
15 years, and the alternative potential of flow of the said equipment is assumed to be 3.81
million kW on annual average.
35

The above-mentioned alternative potential of heat pumps means the quantity of heat pumps
that can be introduced in the case of the largest possible estimation. Whether it is achieved(actualized) in reality or not depends on circumstances.
Here, we set several cases of ratios (actualization rates) to what extent to be actualized
among the heat pump alternative potential assumed earlier, and calculated the upper limiton the introduction of heat pumps based on such cases assumed.
Upper limit on introduction of heat pumps= flow alternative potential of heat pumps x actualization rate
The results of introduction of central systems (total of systems for commercial use andindustrial use) in 2013 are as shown in Table 5-2, according to the “Number of Units
Delivered in Japan by Product” by JRAIA. Of central systems, the ratio of heat-pumpequipment including centrifugal chillers is expressed by “chilling units + centrifugal chillers”/ “chilling units + centrifugal chillers + absorption refrigerators” according to the ratio of
total capacity. And, the ratio in 2013 is 75%.
Table 5-2

Results of introduction of central systems for commercial use
and industrial use (FY 2013)
Introduction
Average capacity
Total capacity
quantity
Ratio[kW/Unit][kW][Unit]

Chilling units

203.3

12,401

2,521,123

61%

Centrifugal chillers

2,006.1

295

591,81114%

Absorption refrigerators

605.4

1,669

1,010,486

25%

Reference;“National shipments of each product” JRAIA

Taking it into consideration that the ratio of heat pumps tends upward, we assumed threecases of ratios (actualization rates) to be occupied by heat pumps in the quantities of central
systems to be introduced in the future, i.e., 80%, 90% and 100%. The upper limits on
capacity of introduction flows of central systems in respective cases are shown in the tablebelow.
Table 5-3 Table of assumed cases of actualization rates
Upper limit of flow/ Maximum
Case 80%

3.05 [Million kW] (867 thousand Rt)

Case 90%

3.43 [Million kW] (976 thousand Rt)

Case 100%

3.81 [Million kW] (1084 thousand Rt)

36

(2) Assumption of proliferation curve of central systems
We assumed that the introduction quantity of central systems on a flow basis increases inproportion to a logistic curve. The initial year of the curve is assumed to be 2004, and we set
the shape of the curve by setting the upper limit on the introduction quantity in proportion
to the actual values in 2013 and actualization rates. The actual values in 2013 are estimatedby excluding the after-mentioned units for industrial use from the total capacity of units forcommercial use and industrial use as shown in Table 5-2.
Thousand kW

Figure 5-1

Assumption of proliferation curve of central systems (Case 80%)

(3) Assumption of survivor curve of central systems
Based on the calculation results of introduction targets on a flow basis, we assumed thepresent quantity of stocks upon the assumption of survivor curves. Assuming that thesurvivor curve has the same shape as that of the “survivor curve of air conditioners” andthat the average service life of units is 15 years, we decided parameters to make the survivor
rate in the 15th year to be 50%.
(4) Estimation results of introduction quantity of central systems
1) Estimation results of quantity of flow introduction
The introduction quantity on a flow basis in the 80%, 90% and 100% cases are shown in thetable below. As of 2013, the introduction quantity reached to about one-third to half of theupper limit on introduction. In all of the cases, though the heights of upper limits aredifferent, the quantity is expected to move closer to the upper limit roughly in and before
2020.

37

Figure 5-2

Estimation of introduction quantity of central systems (on a flow basis)

2) Estimation results of quantity of stock introduction
Based on the quantity of flow introduction as calculated above, we estimated theintroduction quantity on a stock basis by taking account of the survivor curve uponaccumulation of such quantity. The quantities of introduction of central systems in the 80%,
90% and 100% cases are shown as follows on a stock basis.
Though stocks start up later than flows, stocks are expected to rapidly grow in the 2020s
when flows reach the upper limit and reach the peak in the 2030s.

Figure 5-3 Estimation of quantity of stock introduction of central systems (on a stock basis)38

5.2.2(1)

Estimation of energy-saving effects of central systems

Preconditions

The energy-saving effects of replacement from conventional absorption refrigerators tohighly efficient heat-pump heat source equipment were estimated. Specifically, theenergy-saving effects were estimated based on the estimation results of introduction
quantity of heat-pump heat source equipment by using the information about the efficiencyof heat-pump heat source equipment and absorption refrigerators sold in respective fiscal
years. The efficiencies of respective pieces of equipment were set based on various surveys
as shown in the table below.
Table 5-4 Efficiencies of absorption refrigeratorsand highly efficient heat-pump heat source equipment

(2)

2020

2030

2040

Highly efficient heat-pump heat source equipment

6.94

7.70

8.00

Absorption refrigerators

0.90

0.90

0.90

Estimation results of energy-saving effects

The energy-saving effects rise in proportion to stock effects and reach the peak in the 2030s.
For reference, the energy-saving effects are calculated on a trial basis as the reduction
effects from the 2012 level.

Figure 5-4

Energy-saving effects of central systems

39

5.3

Building multi split type air conditioners for commercial use

As for building multi split type air conditioners, among air-conditioning units forcommercial use, we assumed replacement from conventional multi split type air
conditioners to highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners and estimated theintroduction quantity of and the amount of energy conservation of highly efficient building
multi split type air conditioners.

5.3.1
Estimation of introduction quantity of building multi split type air conditioners
for commercial use(1) Assumption of upper limit on introduction quantity of building multi split type air
conditioners for commercial use
Of the number of building multi split type air conditioners delivered in Japan according tovoluntary statistics of JRAIA, the average value in the latest five years is assumed as anannual market of building multi split type air conditioners as a whole, whereas the numberof building multi split type air conditioners for commercial use delivered and the capacity
delivered are roughly estimated to be 102,000 units and 3,600,000 kW, respectively by
assuming that the ratio of units for commercial use is about 90% and the capacity of single
unit is 35 kW. This level was set as introduction potential of highly efficient building multi
split type air conditioners for commercial use.
Thousand units

Future market is assumed based on
the last five years average sells.
102,000units: About 3,600,000kW

Source: JRAIA

Figure 5-5

Changes of number of (conventional + highly efficient) building multi split typeair conditioners for commercial/industrial use delivered in JapanThe above-mentioned potential is the maximum possible introduction quantity of highly
efficient building multi split type air conditioners for commercial use. The actual
introduction quantity is assumed by multiplying the actualization rate. Here, it isconsidered that the ratio of the latest number of highly efficient types introduced remains at
about 50%, and three cases are assumed as the actualization rates of potentials of highly
efficient types, i.e., 90%, 70% and 50%. In this case, the upper limits on the number of highly
efficient types are assumed to be 92,000 units, 71,000 units and 51,000 units, respectively.
40

(2) Assumption of proliferation curve of building multi split type air conditioners forcommercial use
It is assumed that the number of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners tobe delivered increases in proportion to a logistic curve. The shape of logistic curve is set
based on the number of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners forcommercial use which have been delivered so far.
In setting an approximated curve, the upper limit numbers of units to be introduced (92,000
units, 71,000 units and 51,000 units) and some other data are required. Here, the year 2001
when highly efficient types were launched is set as the initial fiscal year of proliferation
curve. The ratios of highly efficient types to the number of building multi split type air
conditioners delivered are assumed to be 35,700 units (41%) in 2005 and 44,100 units (46%)
in 2006 according to the past surveys1. As the ratio remained at about 50% in the latest five
years, the number of units in 2011 is set at 53,000 units (50%). Approximated curves are set
as shown in Figs. 5-6, 5-7 and 5-8 based on these points and the upper limits on introduction
quantity in proportion to the cases of actualization rates.

Figure 5-6

Proliferation curve of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners
for commercial use: case 90%

Note 1: HPTCJ survey: Follow-up survey on “systems to subsidize support projects for
introduction of highly efficient air conditioners” (2008)41

Figure 5-7

Proliferation curve of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners
for commercial use: case 70%

Figure 5-8

Proliferation curve of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners
for commercial use: case 50%(3) Assumption of survivor curve of building multi split type air conditioners for commercialuse
A survivor curve that is similar to that of central systems was assumed.
(4) Estimation results of introduction quantity of building multi split type air conditioners
for commercial use
1) Estimation results of quantity of flow introduction
Based on the assumption mentioned above, the quantities of introduction of highly efficientbuilding multi split type air conditioners for commercial use in the respective cases for42

actualization rates of 90%, 70% and 50% are as follows. The quantities in 2005 and 2006 arebased on the actual results and the quantities in and after 2007 are estimated values.

Figure 5-9

Estimation of introduction quantity (flow basis) of highly efficient building
multi split type air conditioners for commercial use2) Estimation results of quantity of stock introduction
Based on the quantity of flow introduction as calculated above, we estimated the quantities
of introduction on a stock basis by taking account of the survivor curve upon accumulation ofsuch quantity. The quantities of introduction of highly efficient building multi split type air
conditioners for commercial use in respective cases on a stock basis are as follows.

Figure 5-10 Estimation of introduction quantity (stock basis) of highly efficient building
multi split type air conditioners for commercial use

43

5.3.2Estimation of amount of energy saved by building multi split type air
conditioners for commercial use(1) Preconditions
The energy-saving effects of replacement from conventional building multi split type air
conditioners to highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners were estimated.
Specifically, the energy-saving effects were estimated based on the estimation results ofintroduction quantity of highly efficient building multi split type air conditioners by using
the information about the efficiency of conventional multi split type air conditioners andhighly efficient building multi split type air conditioners sold in respective fiscal years. The
efficiencies of respective pieces of equipment were set based on various surveys as shown in
Table 5-5.
Table 5-5 Efficiency of building multi split type air conditioners for commercial use
Highlyefficientbuilding multi split
type air conditioners
Conventional building
multi split type air
conditioners

2020

2030

2040

5.20

6.00

6.50

3.00

3.00

3.00

(2) Estimation results of energy-saving effects
The energy-saving effects are expected to increase in and after 2040. While the quantity ofstocks stalls in and after the 2030s, the efficiency of highly efficient building multi split typeair conditioners continues to increase from 6.00 in 2030 to 6.50 in 2040. This is regarded as afactor of such increase.

Figure 5-11 Energy saving effects by highly efficient building multi-air conditioners
for commercial use
446.

Industrial use

In the industrial sectors where a huge amount of energy is consumed in industrial processes,
drastic reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions can be expected by introducing
heat pumps. Steam of boilers is used for process heat for a wide range of applications suchas hot water supply, drying, cleaning, cooking, steaming, heating at low temperature (forfermentation and others) and direct heating (heating of iron pots and others).
Heat pumps can be applied mainly at temperatures lower than 100℃ for applications suchas hot water supply, cleaning, drying and heating at low temperature in many cases. Air
conditioning is strictly controlled in many types of industry, depending on business types
and applications, where it is considered basically possible to apply heat pumps. In recent
years, moreover, practical use of heat pumps has become possible at temperatures of 100℃
or higher.
Therefore, as the concept of proliferation goals of heat pumps in industrial sector, among thetypes of energy used by boiler for industrial use, in addition to application at temperatures
lower than 100℃ such as:
・ Air conditioning in factories
・ Heating (low-temperature heating for fermentation, hot water supply and cleaning)
・ Low-temperature drying (lower than 100℃)
We made an outlook for proliferation of heat pumps that produce heat of 100℃ or higher:
・ High temperature applications

and calculated the energy-saving effects.

In respect of hot water supply and cleaning, as there are many points common to
low-temperature heating from the viewpoint of heating water to temperatures of several
tens of degrees centigrade, they are considered in a collective manner as “heating.”

6.1

Confirmation of markets

6.1.1
Assumption of energy consumption in breakdown by types of boilers forindustrial use
It is difficult to grasp the energy consumption in industrial sector by the applications
mentioned above. Therefore, it is necessary to make the estimation based on a common
framework to a certain extent as a premise, rather than considering the introduction
quantity by different methods. Here, we grasped the amount of energy consumed for boilers
by types of industry and then assumed the ratios of energy consumed in respective
applications of boilers (air conditioning in factories, heating, low-temperature drying andhigh temperature applications).
The amount of energy consumed by boilers by type of industry is set based on “Energy
Consumption Statistics in FY2012 (Estimation Table Including Dynamic Statistics on
Consumption of Oil and Others)” of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
The composition ratios of consumption in respective applications to the amount of energy
consumed by boilers are set based on surveys on typical production processes and others of45

respective types of industry.
The amount of energy consumed by boilers in breakdown by types of industry, which wasestimated by the assumption mentioned above, is shown in the table below. The amount offuels consumed by boilers in the manufacturing industry as a whole is 1,531 PJ.
Table 6-1 Amount of fuels consumed by boilers by types
and the breakdown by respective applications
Breakdown result of the respective
application of boiler fuels
Total

Air
conditioning

Drying below
100℃

HeatingAmount of fuels cosumed by boiler （Thousand GJ）

Hightemperature

Total

Air conditioning

Drying below
100℃

HeatingHigh-temperature

Manufacture of food

100%

15%

15%

30%

40%

107,481

16,122

16,122

32,244

Manufacture of beverages, tobacco and feed

100%

30%

30%

20%

20%

29,706

8,912

8,912

5,941

5,941

100%

20%

60%

－

20%

56,714

11,34334,028－

11,343

Manufacture of textile mill products,
except apparel and other
Manufacture of apparel and other

42,993

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

4,609

1,027

718

412

2,453

Manufacture of lumber and wood products,
except furniture

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

14,533

3,239

2,263

1,298

7,733

Manufacture of furniture and fixtures

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

615

137

96

55

328

Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products

100%

10%

10%

25%

55%

397,038

39,70439,704

99,260218,371

Publishing, printing and allied industries

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

3,441

767

536

307

1,831

Manufacture of chemical and allied products

100%

20%

10%

10%

60%

339,545

67,90933,95533,955

203,727

Manufacture of petroleum and coal products

100%

10%

10%

－

80%

138,534

13,853

13,853－110,827

Manufacture of plastic products

100%

30%

5%

10%

55%

20,238

6,071

1,012

2,024

11,131

Manufacture of rubber products

100%

20%

5%

－

75%

9,289

1,858

464

－

6,967

Manufacture of leather products and fur skins

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

43

10

7

4

23

100%

10%

5%

5%

80%

60,913

6,091

3,046

3,046

48,731

100%

7%

3%

－

90%

275,820

19,3078,275－

248,238

100%

10%

5%

－

85%

9,514

951

476

－

8,087

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

8,887

1,980

1,384

793

4,729

100%

40%

10%

10%

40%

19,104

7,642

1,910

1,910

7,642

100%

60%

20%

5%

15%

4,832

2,899

966

242

725

100%

30%

30%

10%

30%

18,098

5,430

5,430

1,810

5,430

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

10,812

2,410

1,684

965

5,754

100%

22%

16%

9%

53%

1,202

268

187

107

639

100%

14%

11%

12%

62% 1,530,970

217,930

175,026

184,372

953,641

Manufacture of ceramic, stone and clay
products
Manufacture of iron and steel
Manufacture of non-ferrous materials andproducts
Manufacture of fabricated metal products
Manufacture of general machinery
Manufacture of electrical machinery, equipment
and supplies
Manufacture of transportation equipment
Manufacture of precision instruments andmachineryMiscellaneous manufacturing industries

Industrial sector total

Reference: “Energy consumption census” “Petroleum consumption dynamic statistics” METI

6.1.2
Assumption of potential of amount of fuels consumed by boilers that can be
replaced by heat pumps
As applications for air conditioning in factories, heating and low-temperature drying require
heat at relatively low temperatures of lower than 100℃, it is assumed that all (100%) of theamount of fuels consumed by the existing boilers can potentially be replaced by heat pumps.
As for applications at high temperatures of higher than 100℃, on the other hand, though
hot-air heat pumps and steam generation heat pumps for applications at about 120℃ arecommercialized and development of heat pumps for applications at higher temperatures isalso underway, some types of industry have manufacturing processes where even such heatpumps cannot be used. Here, as it is difficult to use heat pumps in the following four types ofindustry, i.e., pulp & paper and paper-processed product manufacturing, chemical, oil andcoal product manufacturing and iron and steel, the replacement potential in these industries
are assumed to be 0%. With regard to other 18 types of industry, it is assumed that all(100%) of the amount of fuels consumed by boilers can potentially be replaced by heatpumps.
46

Table 6-2 Potential amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced by heat-pumps

High temperature:
In four types of industry,heat pumps cannot be
used and replacement
potential is zero.
In
other
types
of
industry, heat pumps
replacement potential is
100%.

Air
conditioninginfactories, heating anddrying: The amount offuels consumed by boilers
is the potential (100%) of
replacementbyheatpump on an as-is basis.

6.2

Estimation of introduction quantity of industrial heat pumps

6.2.1

Assumption of upper limits on introduction(1) Assumption of upper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replacedby heat pumps
The above-mentioned potential of replacement to heat pumps is the maximum possible
introduction quantity of industrial heat pumps. The actual introduction quantity is assumedby multiplying the actualization rate. In this survey, actualization rates are set in several
cases, and the upper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced byheat pumps are calculated based on such cases
Upper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced by heat pumps = potential of
the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced by heat pumps x actualization rates

471) Assumption of actualization rates
For heat pumps for air conditioning in factories, heating and low-temperature drying,actualization rates are set for each type of industry on an across-the-board basis. As shownin Table 6-3, three cases of ① through ③ are set for actualization rates of respective
applications.

Table 6-3 Actualization rates of air conditioning in factories, heating and low-temperaturedrying (①-③）
Air conditioning
in factories

Heating

Low-temperaturedrying

①

80%

70%

70%

②

70%

50%

50%

③

60%

30%

30%

For heat pumps for high-temperature applications, the volumes that can be targeted by heatpumps in respective types of industry were assumed to differ, and actualization rates wereset, which differ in proportion to the composition ratios of high-temperature applications to
the amount of fuels consumed by boilers by middle classification of industry as mentioned
earlier. As shown in the table below, three cases of actualization rates for high-temperatureapplications were set.
Table 6-4 Actualization rates of high-temperature applications (A-C）
Composition ratios of high-temperatureapplications to the amount of fuels consumed
by boilers by middle classification of industry

Value of actualization rates
high-temperature applications
Case A

Case B

Case C

Below 40%

80%

70%

60%

40 to 60 %

70%

60%

50%

Above 60%

60%

50%

40%

Weighted average of all the industries

69%

59%

49%

of

As shown in the table below, a total of nine different cases were set by the case settings of ①
through ③ by application and by the combination of A to C. For reference, ②B is defined
as a middle-rank case.

48

Case

Table 6-5 Table of set cases of actualization rates
High-temperature
Composition ratios ofAirboilers in respective
HeatingDryingconditioning
industry
Less
40％

than

Less
60％

than

fuels fortypes of
60 ％

or

more

①A

80%

70%

70%

80%

70%

60%

①B

80%

70%

70%

70%

60%

50%

①C

80%

70%

70%

60%

50%

40%

②A

70%

50%

50%

80%

70%

60%

②B

70%

50%

50%

70%

60%

50%

②C

70%

50%

50%

60%

50%

40%

③A

60%

30%

30%

80%

70%

60%

③B

60%

30%

30%

70%

60%

50%

③C

60%

30%

30%

60%

50%

40%

2) Assumption results of upper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be
replaced by heat pumps
Based on the set values of potentials of the amount of fuels consumed by theabove-mentioned boilers to be replaced and those of actualization rates, we estimated theupper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced by heat pumps. The
estimation results in case ②B are shown in Table 6-6.
Table 6-6 Assumption by industry and applications of upper limits on the amount of fuelsconsumed by boilers to be replaced by heat pump: Case ②B49

(2) Assumption results of upper limits on the number of industrial heat pumps to be
introduced
The upper limits on the number of stocks of heat pumps to be introduced are estimated by
dividing the amount of energy demand that is calculated by multiplying the upper limits on
the amount of fuels consumed by boiler system efficiency by the product of annual operation
time (operation time equivalent to the total load) and single unit capacity, i.e., the annual
quantity of heat supplied by a heat pump.
Upper limits on the number of stocks to be introduced =upper limits on the amount of fuels consumed by boilers to be replaced by heat pumps x
boiler system efficiency / (annual operation time x single unit capacity)
Upper limits on the number of flows to be introduced = upper limits on stocks to be
introduced / average service life of equipment
Here, we estimated the upper limits on the number of heat pumps to be introduced byassuming that the output of one heat pump for applications of air conditioning in factories,
hot water supply, drying and high temperature applications are 280 kW, 22 kW, 22 kW and
300 kW, respectively and by setting the efficiency, operation time and average service life of
boiler systems based on various surveys. As an example, the estimation results in the cases①A, ②B and ③C are shown in Table 6-7.
Table 6-7

6.2.2

Assumption results of upper limits on the number of industrial heat pumps to
be introduced (Case ①A, ②B, ③C)

Assumption of proliferation curve of industrial heat pumps

The introduction quantity of industrial heat pumps on a flow basis was assumed to increasein proportion to a logistic curve.
Here, we made settings with making reference to the proliferation progress of delivery ofhigh-efficiency centrifugal chillers that have appeared in recent years and that areconsidered having closer relations with heat pumps. Though the amount of high-efficiency
units delivered is not clear, we assumed that the increase in centrifugal chillers in and after
1998 represents high-efficiency units, and assumed the speeds (parameters a and b) ofapproximated curves based the data until 2007 as the peak year of shipping volume.

50

Figure 6-1

Assumption of the capacity delivered of centrifugal chillers and the amountwhich corresponds to high-efficiency units

Figure 6-22 Actual number delivered of high-efficiency centrifugal chillers (estimation)
and approximated curve
According to the assumption of the applicable approximated curves, it can be said that the
introduction comes close to the upper limit in a little less than 10 years and the assumption
represents curves of proliferation in a relative high speed.
As for proliferation starting year, since in all cases industrial heat pumps for heating andlow-temperature drying began in 2007, that for high temperature applications in 2011, inconsideration of the fact that heat-pump equipment has been introduced earlier for air
conditioning in factories, it was set to FY2005.

6.2.3

Assumption of survivor curve of industrial heat pumps

Based on the calculation results of introduction quantity on a flow basis, we estimated theamount of stocks upon the assumption of survivor curves.
51

Assuming that the survivor curve has the same shape as that of the “survivor curve of air
conditioners” and that the average service life of heat pumps for air conditioning in factories
is about 15 years and that of heat pumps for heating, drying and high temperatureapplications is about 10 years, we decided parameters to make the survivor rate in the 15thyear and the 10th year of service life to be 50%.

6.2.4

Estimation results of introduction quantity of industrial heat pump

(1) Estimation results of quantity of flow introduction
The changes in the capacity of heat pumps to be introduced (flow basis) in the total of all
applications (air conditioning in factories, heating, drying and high temperatureapplications) for industrial use are shown in Fig. 6-3. Here, among the cases assumed, thethree cases of high-rank (①A), middle-rank (②B) and low-rank (③C) are compared witheach other.
In all of the cases, the introduction flow is assumed to fully start up in 2020. In and after
2020, the flow is expected to remain almost unchanged, and the proliferation of industrial
heat pumps is expected to be relatively rapid.

Figure 6-3

Comparison of introduction flow (Total of industrial use)

Then, the introduction quantity (flow basis) by application is shown in Table 6-8. It can befound that all of the applications nearly reach their upper limits in 2020.

52

Table 6-81

Comparison of introduction flow (by industrial applications)
Units: Thousand kW

Applications
For air-conditioning

For heating

For drying

For high temperature

Case

2020

2030

2040

①

2,641

2,642

2,642

②

2,311

2,311

2,311

③

1,981

1,981

1,981

①

1,794

1,802

1,802

②

1,281

1,287

1,287

③

769

772

772

①

1,890

1,898

1,898

②

1,350

1,356

1,356

③

810

813

813

A
B
C

1,321
1,134
947

1,432
1,230
1,027

1,433
1,230
1,027

(2) Estimation results of quantity of stock introduction
The changes in the capacity of heat pumps to be introduced (flow basis) in the total of all
applications (air conditioning in factories, heating, drying and high temperatureapplications) for industrial use are shown in Fig. 6-4.

Figure 6-4

Comparison of introduction stock (Total of industrial use)

Then, the introduction quantity (flow basis) by application is shown in Table 6-9. All of theapplications reflect the rapid proliferation in an early stage and the introduction quantity in2020 is very large. However, as flows remain stable at a high level in stocks, it can be foundthat the quantity continues to increase in and after 2020 and becomes stable in the 2030s.
53

Table 6-9 Comparison of introduction stock (by industrial applications)
Units: Thousand: kW

Applications
Air-conditioning

HeatingDryingHigh temperature

Case

2020

2030

2040

①

30,98540,37240,906②

27,11235,32535,792③

23,23930,27930,679①

13,04818,805

18,901②

9,320

13,432

13,501

③

5,592

8,059

8,101

①

13,74519,80819,911②

9,818

14,14914,222

③

5,891

8,490

8,533

A
B
C

5,499
4,720
3,941

14,386
12,348
10,31015,027
12,898
10,770

6.3

Estimation of energy-saving effects of industrial heat pumps

6.3.1

Preconditions

The energy-saving effects of replacement from boilers to highly efficient heat-pumpequipment for industrial use were estimated. Specifically, the energy-saving effects were
estimated based on the estimation results of introduction quantity of industrial heat pumps
by using the information about the efficiency of boilers and industrial heat pumps sold inrespective fiscal years. The efficiencies of respective pieces of equipment were set based on
various surveys as shown in the table below.
Table 6-10 Efficiencies of industrial heat pumps and boilers
Heat pumps for air
conditioning
Heat
pumps
for
heating
Heat
pumps
for
dryingHeat pumps for hightemperature
Boilers

6.3.2

2020

2030

2040

5.20

6.00

6.50

3.50

4.00

4.50

4.25

5.00

5.50

3.50

4.00

4.25

0.90

0.90

0.90

Estimation results of energy-saving effects

The total energy saving effects (comparison with the year 2012) of heat pumps for industrial
use in all applications are shown in Fig. 6-5.
54

Figure6-5 Comparison of amount of energy saved (Total of industrial use)
Next, the energy-saving effects by application are shown in Table 6-11. The growth speedof energy-saving effects is roughly the same as that of stocks. However, the energy-saving
effects are expected to become higher in the 2030s, reflecting that the efficiencies inrespective applications also improve in and after 2030.
Table 6-10 Comparison of energy-saving effects [Thousand GJ/Year](by industrial applications)Applications
Air-conditioning

HeatingDryingHigh temperature

Case

2020

2030

2040

①

41,092

71,61082,241②

35,956

62,66071,961③

30,81953,70861,680①

20,35840,76951,044②

14,541

29,121

36,460③

8,724

17,472

21,876①

31,78458,582

67,591②

22,703

41,84548,280③

13,621

25,10728,968A
B
C

19,02816,333
13,637

57,13449,04240,94865,61956,32447,03155

7.

Agricultural use

7.1

Concept of outlook for proliferation of agricultural heat pumps

As for the concept of outlook for proliferation of agricultural heat pumps, basically as is thecase with industrial heat pumps, the three cases of high rank, middle rank and low rank
were set by the actualization rates of upper limits on the number of flows upon calculation of
proliferation upper limits on the number of flows. And, the introduction quantity on a stockbasis was calculated by setting survivor curves upon calculation of the introduction quantity
on a flow basis by logistic curves as is the case with other heat pumps.

7.2

Preconditions of outlook for proliferation of agricultural heat pumps

7.2.1

Setting of upper limits on introduction of agricultural heat pumps

In setting the upper limits on the number of agricultural heat pumps to be introduced, we
calculated the amount of energy demand by multiplying the areas covered by
combustion-type equipment in agricultural facilities by annual usage of fuel oil per unit areaand boiler efficiency, and then we estimated the upper limits on introduction of agricultural
heat pumps by setting the single unit capacity and annual operation time of agricultural
heat-pump equipment. A list of data required for calculation of the upper limits on
introduction is shown in the table below.
Used data

Calculation method

Calculated value(1)

Usage of fuel oil
per unit area

Based on precondition below

564.4[L/a](2)

Areas covered by
combustion-type
equipment
inagricultural
facilities

Status of Glass Rooms and Greenhouses
Installed for Horticulture,” Published by
Japan
Greenhouse
Horticulture
Association in 2009

185,140[a]

(3)

Total
heat(=
amount of fuelsconsumedbyboilers)(1)×(2)×39.1[MJ/L]

4,343[Thousand
GJ/Year](4)

Energy demand(3)×0.9 (: Boiler efficiency)

3,909[Thousand
GJ/Year](5)

Output per heatpump unit

Based on heating capacities of existing
facilities

23.0[kW](6)

Operating hours
per heat pumpunit

Based on operation results of existing
facilities
Source from Chiba University

1,200[h](7)Heat supplied perheat pump unit(5)×(6)×3.6／1,000

99[GJ/Year]

56

(8)

Upper limits on
the amount ofstocks(9)

Assumptionofaverage lifetime(10)

Upper limits on
the amount offlows

39[Thousand units](4)／(7)905[Thousand kW]
10[Year]3.9[Thousand units](8)／(10)In setting the usage of fuel oil (fuel oil A is assumed) per unit area of (1) in the table, among
the typical items of vegetables, fruit trees and flowers, the usage of fuel oil used for those
items that are grown in glass rooms and greenhouses (with using heating equipment) is
calculated, and the method to calculate weighted averages in proportion to planted areas is
used.
Table 7-1

Calculation of usage of fuel oil per unit area: Vegetables

Green
onion

Cucumber

EggplantBig
tomatoMini
tomatoGreen
pepper

Sweet
Green
Pepper

Strawberry

Melon

Watermelon

Total
plantingarea
perhousehold

3,803

2,185

2,870

3,501

2,717

3,599

918

2,465

5,773

7,056

Cost of heat,
light and power
per 10a (Yen)

36,000248,000

367,000

278,000

360,000

498,000

691,000

281,000

147,000

37,000

Cost of fuel oil A
per 10a (Yen)33,865233,294345,237

261,515

338,652

468,469

650,024

264,337

138,283

34,806

Usage of fuel oil
A per 10a (L)

462

3,180

4,706

3,565

4,616

6,386

8,861

3,603

1,885

474

In the table mentioned above, vegetables are cited as examples and the calculation methodof usage of fuel oil per unit area is stated. As for the “cost of heat, light and power per 10 a,”
the data of the cost of heat, light and power, which are cited from the “Agricultural
Management Statistical Survey Item-specific Management Statistics in Fiscal 2007” by the
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, are used. Moreover, it is assumed that thecost of fuel oil A accounts for 94% of the cost of heat, light and power because the installation
areas where oil is used account for 94% of the installation areas of heating equipment. Then,the “usage of fuel oil A per 10 a” is estimated by dividing the cost by the fuel oil unit price of
73 yen/l2 during the same period.
In the case where the average prices of fuel oil used for vegetables as a whole are estimatedfrom item-by-item estimation, it is appropriate to weight-average them in proportion toitem-by-item planting scales. Here, they are weight-averaged by the “total planting area perhousehold,” which is made public by this survey. As a result, the usage of fuel oil A per 10aof vegetables as a whole is calculated to be 2,908 l.
With the same method, the usage of fuel oil A per 10 a of fruits and that of flowers arecalculated to be 215 l and 7,884 l respectively.

57

Table 7-2 Results of assumption of the usage of fuel oil per unit area
Vegetables

FruitsFlowers

weight-average

Fuel oil [L/10a]

2,908

215

7,884

5,644

installation
areas of heating
equipment[Thousand m2]

7,551

509

10,454－

For the average prices of fuel oil used for agriculture as a whole, the weight-average
proportional to the installation areas of heating equipment is adopted. Here, weight average
is applied in accordance with “Status of Glass Rooms and Greenhouses Installed for
Horticulture,” which was published by Japan Greenhouse Horticulture Association in 2009.
As a result, the usage of fuel oil A per 10 a is roughly calculated to be about 5,644 l.

7.2.2
Setting of actualization rates for upper limits on introduction of agricultural
heat pumps
The following three cases are assumed by the methods similar to those used for industrial
heat pumps as to the actualization rates for upper limits on introduction (flow).
High-rank case: 70%
Middle-rank case: 50%
Low-rank case: 30%

7.2.3

Setting of proliferation curve of agricultural heat pumps

As for the proliferation curve of agricultural heat pumps, the same logistic curve as that ofindustrial heat pumps is assumed.

7.2.4

Setting of equipment efficiency

The efficiencies of agricultural heat pumps and boilers are set as shown in Table 7-3.
Table 7-3

Assumption of the efficiencies of agricultural heat pumps
Year 2010

Year 2020

Year 2030

Year 2040

Agricultural
heat pumps

4.0

5.0

6.0

6.5

Boilers

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Note 2: Statistical prices in agriculture sector (announced by the Ministry of Agriculture,58

Forestry and Fisheries in 2006 and 2007)

7.3
Estimation of and introduction quantity of agricultural heat pumps andenergy-saving effects
Based on the premises mentioned above, the calculation results of the introduction quantity(flow and stock) and energy-saving effects in comparison with the year 2012 are organized asfollows.
Table 7-4 Results of estimation of introduction quantityand of the amount of energy savings

Capacity[Thousand kW]

Installed
number (flow)
Number[Thousand units]

Installed
number(stock)Energy saving
effectCapacity[Thousand kW]

Number[Thousand units][Thousand GJ/year]

High-rank
Middle-rank
Low-rank
High-rank
Middle-rank
Low-rank
High-rank
Middle-rank
Low-rank
High-rank
Middle-rank
Low-rank
High-rank
Middle-rank
Low-rank

59

Year 2020

Year 2030

Year 2040

58.4
41.7
25.0
2.5
1.8
1.1
243.2
173.7
104.3
10.6
7.6
4.5
554.8
396.4
238.1

63.3
45.2
27.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
636.2
454.4
272.8
27.7
19.8
11.9
1,666.2
1,190.1
714.6

63.3
45.2
27.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
664.5
474.6
284.7
28.9
20.6
12.4
1,906.8
1,362.0817.2

8. Conclusion as to outlook for energy-saving effects through proliferationof heat pumps
Based on the analytical results mentioned above, the energy-saving effects throughproliferation of heat pumps in the sector of household, commercial, industry and agriculture
are organized. In the case where there are several cases, a middle-rank case is always
adopted.
Under the estimation of this fiscal year’s survey, the energy-saving effects (compared withthe year 2012) of 282,754[thousand GJ per year] (2020), 697,289[thousand GJ per year](2030) and 901,670[thousand GJ per year] (2040) will be realized.
The breakdown of energy-saving effects by field is as shown in the table below.
Table 8-1

Conclusion as to outlook for energy-saving effects through proliferation of heatpumps [Thousand GJ/Year]

Residential use
Water heaters
Air conditioners
Commercial use
Water heaters
Highly efficient air
conditioning
Centralsystems
Building multi
split type air
conditioners
Industrial use
Air conditioning infactories
HeatingLow
temperature,dryingHigh temperature
Agricultural use
Total

Year 2020

Year 2030

Year 2040

127,937
57,23070,70764,8893,016
61,873338,936
145,194
193,742
174,495
46,370128,125455,393
188,300
267,093
231,891
82,001
149,890

49,296

98,660110,901

12,577

29,46538,98989,53235,956

182,668
62,660213,024
71,961

14,541
22,70329,121
41,84536,46048,28016,333396
282,754

49,042
1,190
697,289

56,324
1,362
901,67060