November 2020

KAS Regional Offices in Asia-Pacific

A German Pivot to Indo-Pacific?
Opinions from the region on theIndo-Pacific Guidelines of the German Government

Lewe Paul, Alina Reiß, Barbara Völkl, Isabel Weininger
Under the title "Germany - Europe - Asia: Shaping the 21st Century Together", the German
government published the first Indo-Pacific Guidelines in September 2020. Could this be anindication of a greater shift of German foreign policy towards Asia-Pacific? We conducted asurvey among the KAS offices in the region on how Germany’s foreign policy commitment1has been received . This report summarises the reactions from the Indo-Pacific nations andanalyses the potential for the design of bilateral and multilateral cooperation between
Germany and its partner countries.
An eye on the Indo-PacificWith the new Guidelines, the German government is responding to the increasing geostrategic
importance of the Indo-Pacific nations. The Guidelines clearly state Germany’s desire to diversify
relations with the region both in geographic and thematic terms. The German government buys a stakein shaping the relatively new political concept of the Indo-Pacific - not least in response to growing
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demands from the region for greater German involvement . Established partnerships, including thosewith the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Germany's "value partners" in the region
create the framework for more intensive multilateral cooperation: in environmental and climate
protection; security, human rights and the rule of law; in the deepening of economic relations, free trade
and the digital transformation; but also in culture, education and science. In this way, Germany reiterates
its backing of the international rule-based order. It seems likely that the Guidelines will provide the basis
for an EU strategy.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Pivot to Indo-Pacific? Opinions from the Region

November 2020

The Guidelines were released at a noteworthy time: at the beginning of the German EU Council
Presidency and shortly after the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Berlin. So far, Germany
is the only European country besides France to have published a strategy paper on the Indo-Pacific.
Fig. 1: Solid basis for future cooperation.

The KAS regional offices unanimously perceive the Guidelines as future-oriented and sustainable. At thesame time, most resident representatives view the Guidelines as only moderately or not courageous.
The KAS regional offices also do not expect major changes in the cooperation between Germany or the EU
and the Indo-Pacific partners. Yet they emphasised that the strategy paper articulates concrete and clear
policy statements. The KAS offices, along with the German Embassies and Chambers of Commerce,
overwhelmingly see themselves as outreach platforms for Germany’s Indo-Pacific engagement andcooperate closely with the respective political decision-makers.

2Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Pivot to Indo-Pacific? Opinions from the Region

November 2020

Let actions speak: cautious optimism in the region

In the countries surveyed, the Guidelines did not
generate strong media attention immediately
after their release – the timing of publication
during challenges related to Covid-19 and theinitial availability of the Guidelines exclusively inGerman certainly had an unfavourable influenceon their reception.
The Guidelines were viewed as generally
positive, especially by the countries often
referred to as "value partners", Australia, India,
Japan and New Zealand, but also in ASEAN
countries such as Singapore and Thailand, as wellas in Taiwan. They are perceived as a contribution
to strengthening rule-based multilateralism,bilateral relations and as a stance against China.
Reactions in politics, diplomacy as well as in the academic world are predominantly, if cautiously,positive. The Guidelines are seen as a step in the right direction, whose concrete implementation
remains to be seen, especially in the area of (maritime) security and in terms of their integration into acomprehensive European strategy.
A different picture emerges with the People's Republic of China, which generally sees the paper as a3
German attempt "to limit China's rise and its role in the region" . While official Chinese media
remained silent, the Japanese newspaper Nikkei Asia highlighted the Guidelines as "the end of the4German honeymoon with China" .

Avenues for strengthened cooperation all around
German and regional media emphasise that Germany for the first time has a "strategy" for the region
aiming at balanced partnerships and economic growth. Nevertheless, partners are hesitant as towhether this should be considered a significant change for the cooperation between Germany and theIndo-Pacific partners.
Despite these reservations, the survey showed that cooperation could be strengthened in almost allpriority areas, with business and free trade taking first place, followed by culture, education andscience. Environmental protection and climate change, multilateralism and digitaltransformation rank third on the list of priorities.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Pivot to Indo-Pacific? Opinions from the Region

November 2020

Germany also plans to strengthen its soft power diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, notably through theplanned German Information Centre in Singapore.
Fig. 2: Selected priorities and flagship projects of German cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners.

It should be highlighted that those surveyed hardly expect Germany to become more involved in thesecurity and defence sector. Although some experts described a stronger NATO involvement in theIndo-Pacific region as desirable, they considered such a development unrealistic. The question of astronger role for NATO in the Indo-Pacific generated a mixed bag of responses.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Pivot to Indo-Pacific? Opinions from the Region

November 2020

Info box
NATO and the Indo-Pacific
Whereas Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea would view a stronger engagement and deeper
cooperation with NATO in a very positive light, India and Vietnam give cautiously positive responses
at best. Australia and New Zealand are firmly committed to closer cooperation with NATO,particularly in the areas of maritime security and the fight against terrorism and extremism. Somevoices in South Korea are in favour of opening a NATO liaison office; Seoul generally expects NATOto become more active in the region. With India having concluded military cooperation agreementswith France and the United States, New Delhi becomes more open on the idea of NATO being activein the region - partly because of the growing threat emanating from its Chinese neighbour. Some
Vietnamese interlocutors are also in favour of an increased military engagement of individual NATOstates as a deterrent against China. Opinions from Singapore, Indonesia and The Philippines wererather neutral. China, Myanmar and Cambodia voice criticism or suspicions in this regard, withCambodia now firmly placed within the Chinese sphere of influence. China perceives the US-led
NATO as detrimental to its own interests. Taiwan is increasingly exposed to Chinese political andmilitary pressure due to its dependence on the US defence capacities. There is thus robust support
for a stronger integration of NATO in security policy.
In addition to NATO itself, its "Partners Across The Globe", which include Australia, South Korea
and New Zealand, as well as "QUAD Plus" and increased bilateral and multilateral formats such asASEAN and the UN were identified as alternative platforms for cooperation. However, just as in thecase of an increased NATO involvement, the different and partly distinct positions of the individual
countries in the region are clearly evident.

Multi-level approach: KAS' commitment in the Indo-Pacific
For the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation it is no question that the Guidelines on the Indo-Pacific will shape
German foreign policy in Asia-Pacific in the medium to long term. KAS shares the integrative approach of
the German government by focusing on regional projects in its Indo-Pacific engagement. The foundationis already active across a broad thematic spectrum and maintains an extensive network. Thematically,
the KAS regional offices see their expertise primarily in the areas of multilateralism, security, economy
and free trade, and digital transformation. In order to strengthen German cooperation in the IndoPacific, the KAS regional offices plan to create bespoke dialogue formats for specific topics and target
groups.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Pivot to Indo-Pacific? Opinions from the Region

November 2020

6The survey furthermore made a strong case that German engagement should go beyond cooperation at
the government level. It must also attract attention in the public arena to permeate the region anddevelop its own dynamics. Projects such as the envisaged Germany Centre in Singapore should help topresent Germany as a reliable partner, equipped with concrete projects and initiatives, to the entire
region. Here KAS is in a good position to make German commitment visible through its offices abroad.
The partner countries demand significantly more German activities in their region. It is Germany’s turn toexpand its existing initiatives with the necessary boldness and visibility.

1This article is based on a survey in October 2020 with contributions by the KAS offices: Rabea Brauer (Japan),Dr. Céline Caro (Thailand), Christian Echle (Singapore), Miriam Fischer (Malaysia), Peter Girke (Vietnam), Dr.
Beatrice Gorawantschy (Australia and New Zealand), Dr. Christian Hübner (Hongkong), Prof. Dr. Stefan Jost(Philippines), Dr. Thomas Knirsch (Myanmar), Peter Rimmele (India), Stefan Samse (Singapore), Dr. DanielSchmücking (Cambodia), Jan Senkyr (Indonesia), Michael Winzer (China), Thomas Yoshimura (Korea) und DavidMerkle (Desk Officer China, Berlin).
2The concept of the Indo-Pacific as a geopolitical construct for the new strategic dynamics of the region hastaken on a new significance in recent years. In Japan, Australia, India and the United States in particular, theterm has acquired political salience, although views on its geographical definition differ. For a detailed analysisof the concept see also https://bit.ly/3eLxvCe.

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Translated quote by Michael Winzer, KAS-office Beijing
Jun Ishikawa (2020): Germany ends China honeymoon with new Indo-Pacific strategy. Available athttps://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Germany-ends-China-honeymoon-with-new-IndoPacific-strategy

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Lewe Paul, Alina Reiß, Barbara Völkl and Isabel Weininger
Asia-Pacific Department
European and International Cooperationwww.kas.deasien@kas.de

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