Start

Contents

03

04

05

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

RECAI 62

06

07

13

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis

PPA Index

Renewables highlightsfrom around the world

Where the wind blows

Foreword

Key developments

20

26

27

Data and methodology

How EY teams can help

Contacts

Analysis

Data andmethodology

RECAI 62
Normalized index

How EY teams
can help

PPA Index

Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6202Foreword

There is no time to waste in the global
race to decarbonize our entire way of life.
The rewards for doing so will be bountiful,and the consequences of not doing so
unthinkable.
The technology we employ to achieve this and theway we finance transitional projects are among the
topics to be discussed at the UN Climate Change
Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates
from 30 November to 12 December.
COP28 will also be the end date for the first-everglobal stocktake — a five-yearly process by which,collectively, markets and stakeholders can see
where they are making progress, or not, toward thegoals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
The stocktake looks at where the world stands
on climate action and support — but, as UN
Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell
points out, it is not just a routine checkup. It is a“moment for course correction”; an opportunity toramp up ambition.1

Arnaud de Giovanni
EY Global Renewables Leader

Ben Warren

RECAI Chief Editor
Partner, Renewables Corporate Finance,
Ernst & Young LLP

Ambition such as that of the 3xRenewables campaign,
which is led by the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA)
and of which EY is a signatory. It is urging global leaders
to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity to
11,000GW by 2030.
Such growth in renewable energy is not linear, however,but instead follows an “S” curve typical of such newtechnologies. We are now approaching the inflection
point in this curve, where we will see rapid, exponential
growth that will enable us to decarbonize faster andachieve the GRA members’ ambitions — but only if theright accelerators are in place first.
Can we scale fast enough? Can we connect to thegrid quickly enough? Can we streamline the permitting
process, and are the right funding mechanisms inplace? Do we have the right infrastructure and supply
chains? We need to be prepared to act swiftly if weare to capitalize on the opportunity that’s just aroundthe corner.
To find out which markets are best prepared to move
fast, we need only look at the RECAI 62 rankings.
The top three spots remain unchanged, with the US,
Germany and China out in the lead. And the Nordic
markets are showing their renewable energy intent,with Denmark, Sweden and Norway climbing two,
three and five places respectively.
Offshore wind — often cited as the closest thing wecurrently have to a sustainable form of baseload energy
generation — will be essential to global decarbonization.
So, in this edition of RECAI, we take a detailed look at
the sector, which has experienced a difficult 12 months
because of challenging economic headwinds. This isreflected most clearly in the performance of the UK in
the RECAI 62 scores: down three places, to seventh,because of its high dependence on offshore wind in its
energy mix.
What went so wrong for the UK, where zero bidders
expressed an interest in the 2023 AR5 offshore windauction? In our deep dive, we look at how escalating raw
materials costs weren’t properly reflected in the strikeprices of the auction, and how a squeezed supply chain
is struggling to cope with the pressure of looming 2030
net-zero targets.

These problems are not limited to one market, however.
Supply chain difficulties have resulted in global
project costs rising by 39% since 2019,2 and thesector is operating in a post-COVID-19 economy
that is feeling the effects of an energy-pricespike caused by the war in Ukraine andmacroeconomic tensions.
• We need to move faster to meet our net-zero
Crucially, we ask whether this is aambitions. EY is calling on governments to triple
temporary blip, or if such factors are here
global renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW
to stay. Is offshore wind entering a new
by 2030.
chapter, and is it still a good place for• Highest climbers in RECAI 62 include the Nordic
investors to put their money?
countries, Belgium and Romania. Markets
To answer this last point right
dropping down the rankings include the UK,
away: emphatically, yes. ThereJapan and Chile.
are some real winners in offshore• The UK loses its status as the world’s No. 1 placewind right now, such as Germany,for offshore wind, as a government auction
which awarded nearly 9GW overfails to attract any bidders because of increased
two auctions this year, and thecosts, which weren’t fully reflected in target
Nordics, with Sweden approving
strike prices.
two west coast offshore windfarms this year, and Finland having• Offshore wind is crucial to achieving net zero,
awarded 1.3GW in late 2022 andbut the sector is facing challenging times from aannouncing an ambitious 6GW
squeezed supply chain and escalating costs.
auction program by 2024. China• Tensions in the offshore supply chain could be
is also set to continue its growth
eased by standardizing technologies and giving
in offshore wind, despite ceasing
more certainty to manufacturers and developers.
national-level subsidies.

Key takeaways

In many ways, offshore wind is a
microcosm of the larger renewableenergy industry as a whole. It’s maturingand has been immensely successful in
reducing costs via stringent competition.

• When auctioning contracts for offshore wind
generation, governments should reflecteconomic conditions in the design of the auction.
• Considering moving away from cost-only
auction formats and incorporating non-pricefactors would boost the supply chain, improvedeliverability and benefit wider society.

The sector has the opportunity to modulate thepace of technology progress to take advantage
of economies of scale; governments can end the“race to the bottom” on cost and start thinking about
security of supply and value to society instead. Crucially,
they can also join up energy policy with industrial policy.
Governments, developers and investors that get this right
will be winners in the long term.

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

We must move quickly to meet our climate responsibilities. Key
players the world over need to hold their nerve and keep their foot on
the accelerator. It’s never been more important.
Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

03

RECAI 62

Index

US

Germany
China Mainland2

1

3

Since 2003, the biannual RECAI has
ranked the world’s top 40 markets on
the attractiveness of their renewableenergy investment and deployment
opportunities. The rankings reflect ourassessments of market attractiveness andglobal market trends.

France

4

5

6

2

3

5

UK

7

8

Saudi Arabia 40
40

Thailand 38
South Africa 37

37

Kazakhstan 36

32

12

No change in attractiveness sinceprevious index

10

Switzerland 34

13 Japan

15

Current ranking shown in circles withprevious ranking noted at the bottomof each segment

34
36

Vietnam 33

15

20

16

16
18

27

Egypt 31
Turkey

14

28
30

30
29

29

17

21
25

31

Argentina
28
Austria27
26
South Korea
Norway

23

26

19

23

24

25

22

TaiwanMorocco

24

18
19
21

20

-3

+1

Italy
Italy aims to increase the amount of
renewables in its energy mix to 65% by2030. New renewable capacity in H1 2023
of 2.5GW represents a 120% increase on
2022’s rate.

UK-2

The failure of Contracts for Difference(CfD) Round 5 to attract new offshore windcapacity, plus the diminishing of green
policies, has left investors with reduced
confidence in UK renewables.

PolandPPA Index

Chile
Despite lofty new battery storage
targets, Chile continues to struggle withintermittency issues driven by solar
curtailment throughout the country.

Analysis

Chile

Data andmethodology

SwedenGreeceBrazilFinland
Belgium
Portugal
22

Germany

Normalized index

Key developments

14 Italy

17

33

Philippines 32

RECAI 62

12 Ireland

13

35

Mexico 35

Foreword

Denmark
A policy allowing issuance of guarantees
of origin for green hydrogen supports
Denmark’s role in the energy transition andis a key decarbonization factor for hard-toabate sectors.

There has been significant growth inGermany’s onshore wind sector, with thevolume of new capacity installed by the endof September exceeding the total installed
in 2022.

11 Canada

9

Decreased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

38

0

10 Netherlands

11

Increased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

44

Denmark

9

4

39

+2

8 Spain6

Romania 39

US
The US retains the top spot amid
significant solar growth driven by Inflation
Reduction Act incentives. Market players
are putting pressure on the government
regarding offshore wind requirements.

India
7

1

0

Australia

Israel-3

Japan
Despite significant natural resources and acommitment to reduce fossil fuels, Japanis falling behind other leading economies interms of solar and wind deployment.

+5

Romania
Romania is set to tender 1GW of onshore
wind and 1GW of solar as the first steps inits multiyear plan to award 20GW of CfDbacked capacity.

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

See page 22 for RECAI methodology.

The RECAI model’s energy imperative pillar has been slightly adjusted to ensure that markets with a strong and demonstrable commitment to
deploying green energy are scored positively.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6204Normalized index

RECAI uses various criteria to compare the attractiveness of renewables markets, such as the magnitude of the development
pipeline, that reflect the absolute size of the renewable investment opportunity. Hence, the index naturally benefits large
economies. However, by normalizing with the gross domestic product (GDP) we can see which markets are performing above
expectations for their economic size.

Foreword

In this way, the normalized index helps reveal ambitious plans for energy transition in smaller economies, creating someattractive alternatives for potential investors.

RECAI 62
Normalized
ranking

Market1

Denmark2

RECAIranking

Normalized
ranking

Market3

921

Canada21

11

Morocco2

25

22

Honduras

23

58

3

Greece1

18

23

Norway25

26

4Australia

6

5

24

Austria

26

28

5

Chile

5

16

25

Taiwan28

24

6

Ireland

7

12

26

Egypt

20

31

7

Portugal

10

22

27

Italy

31

14

8

Netherlands

14

10

28

Vietnam36

33

9Finland

9

20

29

Philippines

24

32

10

France

11

4

30

US

30

1

11

Spain

13

8

31

Tunisia

29

55

12

Jordan4

45

32

Dominican Republic

35

46

13

Germany8

2

33

Argentina

33

29

14

Poland17

1534

China Mainland

34

3

15

Sweden19

17

35

Romania

47

39

16

India

16

6

36

Kenya

27

48

17

UK

12

7

37

Bulgaria

41

50

18

Israel15

23

38

Panama39

54

19

Kazakhstan

18

36

39

Peru

40

41

21

40

South Africa

32

37

20

Belgium

Previous
ranking

22

Movement vs.
previous

Previous
rankingMovement vs.
previousRECAIranking0

MoroccoMorocco is forecast to bring more than 1GW of renewables
capacity online every year between 2023 and 2027, while the
US$20b Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project interconnector is on
track for commissioning during 2030.

Normalized index

PPA Index-2+1

GreeceGreece is showing good progress toward 2030 and 2050
targets. It has recently surpassed 11GW of installed
renewables capacity, with 1.7GW of green hydrogenelectrolyzers in planning.

+1

Key developments

Analysis

Ireland
A new memorandum of understanding with the UK to support
offshore renewable energy and increase interconnectivity
is expected to improve Irish energy security and reduce
intermittency risk.

+3

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help

PortugalPortugal’s new 2030 target of 85% renewables generation
has led to huge growth in forecast capacity in solar, wind andhydrogen electrolyzers, reducing reliance on gas.

Contacts
See page 23 for normalized RECAI methodology.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

05

PPA Index

Spain

Calmer wholesale markets, but PPA
landscape may yet be ruffled by rising costs
GermanySpainof generation and geopolitical unrest
1

It has been a challenging year
for power purchase agreements(PPAs) in 2023, as more and more
corporates target new deals, while
supply chain, grid and permitting
delays continue to hamper
progress in many markets.
Having said that, in Europe,
7.1GW of PPAs had been signedby the end of September (morethan the total 6.6GW in 2022) andthe 2021 record of 7.6GW is likely
to be exceeded.3
After the extreme prices andvolatility of 2022, wholesalemarkets calmed in the first ninemonths of 2023. However, unrestin the Middle East has alreadystarted to impact markets globally,
through greater volatility and an
uptick in pricing.
Thankfully, high inflation rates
that were affecting many PPA
markets have been easing inrecent months, helping PPA
prices to level off, or evendecline, in some markets. Other
helpful drivers in Europe include
the revision of the Renewable
Energy Directive (REDIII), totarget 42.5% renewables for
all EU energy consumption by
2030, and speeding up thepermit-granting process.

The greatest tension in thecorporate PPA market, however,is from rising costs of generationand lowering long-term wholesalemarkets, resulting in a tightening
price band where PPA deals workfor both developer return andcorporate savings.

Although it was knocked off the top spot by Germany in June
2023, Spain continues to be a strong market for corporate
PPAs, with more than 800MW in more than eight deals during
Q3 2023.4 Spain also leads all markets (except the US) in termsof total capacity of corporate PPAs to date: an impressive
7.4GW.5 This huge supply of projects, 59% of which are solar,
has led to bottlenecks in grid connection queues, however,and some summertime cannibalization of prices — showing theimportance of negotiating liquidated damages for delay and fully
understanding profile risk.

US

2

UK

3

4

France

5

6
1

2

3

7

4
5

Denmark

8

9

9

Increased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

11

Decreased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

Ethiopia 29

28

Thailand 28
Romania

11 Finland

13

12 Italy7

Current ranking shown in circles withprevious ranking noted at the bottomof each segment25

10 Poland12

New entry

27

15

13

14

26
16

27

Greece

26

Japan

18

20

21

24

23

22

14

19

17

15
16

25

17

24

23
Portugal
22
21South Africa
Colombia
Morocco20

19

Belgium18

Egypt

Sweden10

No change in attractiveness sinceprevious index

Bulgaria 30

Netherlands

8

6

Chile

IrelandIndia

Staying at number four in our index, the UK has experienced
quite a shift in the PPA market in the past few months, becauseof some surprising results in the government’s latest Contracts
for Difference auction: No offshore wind projects bid in because
recent increases in offshore costs made the low clearing priceunviable, so 1.5GW of onshore wind, and 1.9MW of solar
photovoltaic (PV), won awards instead. Consequently, a large
number of onshore wind and solar projects were taken awayfrom potential corporate PPAs, thinning liquidity in the market
and placing some upward pressure on prices.

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

SwedenSweden has jumped up two ranks into the top 10, as it
continues to see appetite from corporates in the region.
Although predominantly a wind market, historically, 7% of
Sweden’s 4.2GW PPAs to date have been solar PV.6 This
proportion is expected to rise because of the scarcity of solarshaped generation in the Nordic mix and much higher prices inthe sunnier southern grid regions of SE3, and especially SE4,
compared with the windy north — SE1 and SE2 — with much
lower prices.

Analysis

Data andmethodology

NorwayBrazilCanadaRECAI 62

UK

Australia

Foreword

CanadaCanada has entered the index for the first time as the numberof corporate PPAs build in the Alberta market. There have beenat least five deals in the past year covering 500MW, four fromonshore wind projects and one from solar PV. Typical tenors are
15 years in length. It is hoped that other provinces may follow
Alberta’s direction in terms of opening up for corporate PPAs,
further extending the growth across the rest of Canada.

See page 25 for PPA methodology.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6206

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Key developments

Renewables highlights fromaround the world
Amid a backdrop of subdued economic activity and risinggeopolitical tensions — and with 2030 on the horizon —markets are assessing their progress toward achieving their
net-zero targets. Here, we look at key developments within
10 global markets — from Australia’s plan to build one of theworld’s largest batteries to Poland’s first offshore wind project.

13

No change

No change

RECAI ranking

RECAI ranking

5

4

Up 2

Up 1

RECAI ranking

Foreword

RECAI ranking

RECAI 62

7
Down 3

RECAI ranking

15

19

31

RECAI ranking

RECAI ranking

RECAI ranking

Up 2

Down 1

Normalized index

Down 3

PPA Index

Key developments

32

40

RECAI ranking

RECAI ranking

Up 1

Analysis

Down 1

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

07

Key developments

1

No change

RECAI ranking

US: Solar surge to add record production capacity
The US solar sector is booming, with the market expected to add a record 32GW ofproduction capacity in 2023,7 up 53% from the new capacity added in 2022. Financial
incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have been cited as the key driver forthis growth.
With increased investment in domestic manufacturing, the US could see productionof solar photovoltaic (PV) components expand tenfold by 2026 if all the planned
factories are built. With the expansion of domestic module manufacturing, the market’ssolar module supply looks to be stable for the years ahead.8 Moreover, as the policies
outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) come into play, Wood Mackenzie projects aremarkable growth trajectory for the sector. It anticipates that the total operating solar
capacity will surge from the current 153GW to a staggering 375GW by 2028.9
Offshore wind has stumbled, however. A combination of inflation, higher financing
costs and supply bottlenecks have contributed to low developer interest, and a numberof projects being reassessed, with some developers canceling offtake agreements andothers attempting to renegotiate terms. Wind power costs have risen by as much as
30% since the start of 2022, and pressure is now mounting on the government to easerequirements for subsidies provided in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The US has ambitious plans for its fledgling offshore wind sector and is seeking to add
30GW of capacity by 2030. Currently, it has no large-scale commercial wind farms inoperation; however, Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork are expected to deliver their firstpower before the end of the year, and a couple of dozen projects are in development. If
the US can reach its 2030 goal, it will have enough energy to power 10 million homes.
Without reforms to tax credits, however, current headwinds are starting to make its
lofty goal appear unreachable.10

3

No change

RECAI ranking

China: Solar and wind lead charge to smash2030 targets

Foreword

China’s transition to net zero is accelerating rapidly, with the market on target toeasily reach its renewable installation targets by 2030. By the end of this decade, its
utility-scale solar and wind power capacity is expected to double from its current leveland surpass its 2030 target of 1.2TW of wind and solar capacity in 2025, five years
early.

RECAI 62

At the end of the first quarter of 2023, 228GW of utility-scale solar was online,
representing more than 50% of the global utility-scale solar capacity. Another 379GW
of solar power is under construction, and the market’s combined offshore andonshore wind capacity has passed 310GW. This is roughly equal to the combined windcapacity of the other top seven markets.11
In 2022, investment in solar power skyrocketed by 232% to reach CNY286.6b(US$39.2b). Fitch Ratings believes this robust growth in renewable-capacity
installations will continue, supported by energy transition needs and decreasing
project costs. China’s investments in generation assets rose by 54% year on year in
1H 2023, to CNY332b (US$45b), with 64% in solar and wind. Wind and solar power
supplied about 17% of its total power consumption in 1H 2023, exceeding the 2023
target of 15.3%.12
China has targets to source 33% of its power from renewable energy by 2025 and toreach net zero by 2060. If it can achieve its net-zero target, climate experts believe it
could curb global warming by 0.2°C to 0.3°C this century.13
China has also launched its green power certificates, with projects granted acertificate by the government for each megawatt hour of renewable power produced.
All wind, rooftop, ground-mounted and concentrating solar power systems,
geothermal, biomass and ocean energy developments are eligible for the certificates,
which are valid for two years and can be traded in for payments by the government.14

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

08

Key developments

4
Up 1

RECAI ranking

France: Massive 10GW offshore wind tender proposed
France is in the early stages of developing its offshore wind sector, as it looks toaccelerate uptake of renewables to reach its climate targets. The market’s energy
transition minister has said an offshore wind auction of “unprecedented size”
will be held after maritime spatial planning and zoning, which is expected to becompleted by September 2024. The French government has not indicated thesize of the tender, but industry body France Renouvelables has proposed a 10GW
tender.
Paris has also indicated that it will use contract for difference style auctions for
future offshore wind allocations. A target of 40GW of offshore wind by 2050 has
been set, with a 2030 goal of 18GW — an ambitious endeavor considering France’s
offshore wind capacity was 482MW at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
France is updating its energy and climate programming law to incorporate EU
climate targets. Near-term goals have already been set, with the market vowing
to quit coal use and produce one million electric vehicles and heat pumps annuallyby 2027. It has also committed to go from 60% fossil fuels to 40% by 2030.15
France must triple its use of renewable energy by 2035 to reach its EU climate
targets. In addition to rapidly developing its offshore wind sector, it wants toincrease its onshore capacity from 21GW in 2022 to 35GW by 2030, while almost
quadrupling its PV solar capacity from 16GW to 60GW over the same period.16

5
Up 2

RECAI ranking

Australia: 1.2GW battery signals breakthrough forenergy storage

Foreword

Australia has granted federal approval for one of the world’s largest batteries tobe built at the Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub. Developer Equis will now work
to secure a notice to proceed with construction of the 1.2GW/2.4GWh battery,planned to start in late 2023, with commercial operations scheduled to begin
in 2025.

RECAI 62

The enormous battery, which will use lithium iron phosphate batteries, will
have the capacity to power more than one million households. It will feature
six separate 200MW points of connection to Australia’s grid to satisfy different
uses and grid responses simultaneously. The project will also include a small
solar component and will have the potential to be expanded in another phase,to include hydrogen and battery recycling facilities.17

Normalized index

PPA Index

Australia has set a near-term target of generating 50% of its electricity fromrenewable sources by 2030. At the end of 2022, 35.9% of the market’s
power came from renewable sources, only a modest increase from 32.5% at
the end of 2021. To accelerate its energy transition, Australia will ramp up
wind power generation, with the aim of adding 20GW of new wind power by
2030. Additionally, it has earmarked up to AU$3b (US$2b) from the National
Reconstruction Fund for renewables manufacturing to combat supply chain
challenges in the global offshore wind sector.18

Key developments

Analysis

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

09

Key developments

7
Down 3

RECAI ranking

UK: Onshore gets a boost as offshore stumbles
Offshore wind flopped in the UK’s latest Contracts for Difference (CfD) round in
September. For the first time, no power deals were awarded for fixed-bottomor floating offshore wind projects, a huge setback in the UK’s goal of reaching
50GW of offshore capacity by 2030.
The sector had been warning for months that the terms on offer were too low
given the major cost and supply chain pressures that the sector has experienced
since the previous auction, when 7GW of fixed-bottom offshore was awarded.
Currently, the UK’s offshore wind capacity is 14GW, and its offshore sector has
been a global leader. However, faced by increased costs of roughly 20% to 40%,bidders expressed hesitancy at the rates on offer.19
HM Treasury has held talks with developers and supply chain companies todiscuss initiatives to help offset the rise in capital expenditure that is plaguing
projects. New support measures could be unveiled in November’s Autumn
Statement, including capital allowances and a more favorable tax status, suchas, potentially, reforming the Electricity Generator Levy on renewables, a 45%
tax on revenues above £75/MWh.20
After last year’s record renewable energy auction, in which 11GW was awarded,just 3.7GW was granted in this year’s auction, with solar power receiving 1.9GW
of capacity and onshore wind 1.5GW.21 It marks a change of fortune for onshore
wind after the government’s streamlining of planning rules, in place since 2015,that had impeded development of new onshore wind farms because a single
objection could stop a project from progressing. A new measure to incentivize
more onshore projects will also be introduced to allow communities supporting
local wind farms to benefit from cheaper energy.22

15
Up 2

RECAI ranking

Poland: First offshore wind project attracts
record financing

Foreword

Poland is to begin construction of its first offshore wind farm after a final
investment decision was taken to build the 1.2GW Baltic Power offshore wind
farm. The project, 23km off the coast from Leba, is expected to be completed
in 2026 and will supply renewable energy to about 1.5 million households.
With a generation capacity of 4,000GWh of electricity, it will produce theequivalent of about 3% of Poland’s current electricity output. The €4.73b(US$5b) project has secured a €4.4b (US$4.6b) loan, the largest financing fora single investment in the market’s history.

RECAI 62

Normalized index

An offshore wind farm installation terminal — capable of handling and installing
wind turbines of 15MW or above — will also be constructed at the Port ofŚwinoujście and is expected to be finished in early 2025. After supporting theconstruction of the Baltic Power project, it will be used for other projects in theBaltic Sea, including ventures in German, Swedish and Danish waters.

PPA Index

Key developments

Meanwhile, Poland’s state-controlled energy company ORLEN has been
granted licenses for an additional five offshore wind farms that, collectively,
will generate 5.2GW of renewable energy capacity.23
Poland has also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with
Norwegian Offshore Wind, a Norway-based representative body, and the twomarkets will examine ways to harness collective expertise and share resources
to drive innovation and improve the competitiveness of the Polish offshore
wind sector.24

Analysis

Data andmethodology

In addition, Poland has introduced new legislation to increase the proportionof renewable energy sources in its energy mix. The bill removes permit
requirements for solar PVs up to 150kW25 and has changed the 10-timesheight distance rule for wind turbine locations to 700m.26 At the end ofJune, Poland’s installed renewable capacity was 25GW, up 5GW in the last
12 months.

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

10

Key developments

19
Down 1RECAI ranking

Brazil: Investment ramped up in wind and solar
Brazil is targeting growth in its solar and wind sectors after an Augustannouncement of plans to invest BRL41.5b (US$8.2b) and BRL22b (US$4.3b)
respectively. It will build out solar capacity in the states of Bahia, Ceará, Minas
Gerais, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte, adding 8.6GW
of new solar power. The market will also invest in 120 projects that will add
5.2GW of wind power across the states of Bahia, Ceará, Paraíba, Pernambuco,
Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte.
In addition to solar and wind, Brazil will develop 20 small hydroelectric
projects as part of the third edition of its Growth Acceleration Program. The
program will also earmark BRL89b (US$17.5b) for transmission projects toincrease renewable generation capacity by up to 70%.27
Brazil is in the middle of regulating the development of a carbon credit market.
A bill, which was unanimously approved by the senate, will now be debated in
the lower house. Under the proposed legislation, all companies that issue morethan 10,000 tonnes of CO2 per year will be entered into the carbon market.
Companies that do not reach their greenhouse gas reduction targets will beable to buy credits from others that do reduce their emissions. The purchaseand sale of the carbon credits will be conducted on stock exchanges.28

31
Down 3

RECAI ranking

Egypt: Moves to accelerate pace of low-carbon transition

Foreword

Egypt has brought forward its target of generating 42% of its energy from renewablesources from 2035 to 2030, as part of its updated Nationally Determined Contribution
climate plan. To expedite the achievement of this goal, Egypt will seek grants and soft
financing of €500m (US$526m) as it aims to add 10GW of new renewable energy.29

RECAI 62

During the current fiscal year, the North African market is targeting investment of
more than EGP81b (US$2.6b) and will add US$2.2b in public investment to boost the
renewables share of its energy mix to 11.8%. The market has also hinted that it plansto enforce legal frameworks for the renewables sector to attract more investment.30

Normalized index

With an abundance of sun and high wind speeds, Egypt aims to build on its position
as a regional energy hub and export wind and solar energy to the UK via subsea
cables. Wind speeds can reach 10.5m per second along the Gulf of Suez, helping themarket produce 1.64GW of wind energy in 2022. Egypt already boasts a 250MW
interconnector with Jordan, as well as an 80MW interconnector with Sudan.31

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

11

Key developments

32
Up 1

RECAI ranking

Philippines: Law change boosts outlook for solar PV
The Philippines is seeking to unlock its huge solar potential, with reforms
to foreign ownership laws spurring growth in commercial and industrial
solar power.
In December 2022, changes to the Renewable Energy Act removed therequirement for 100% Filipino ownership of certain renewable energy
assets, and spurred solar PV development. This, combined with a liberalenergy market and the only spot market in the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, is making the Philippines a popular choice
for solar developers. The regulatory framework for permits has also beenstreamlined and there is a greater degree of freedom to operate in themarket compared with monopolies in other ASEAN markets.32
In October, the Philippines’ first canal-top solar irrigation project cameonline, and more than 140 solar-powered irrigation projects are expected
to be finished before the end of the year. A further 180 projects are in thepipeline for development in 2024.33 In August, plans were also announced
to develop 1GW of floating solar power on the market’s largest freshwaterlake, Laguna de Bay.34
However, some obstacles to solar power’s growth in the Philippines still
exist. Slow construction of transmission lines, and the market’s archipelagic
geography, means it lacks a developed grid to connect large-scale solar
PV plants to the network. This is forcing the Philippines to focus more on
developing mini-grids and standalone clean power systems.35

40
Down 1RECAI ranking

Saudi Arabia: Rapid acceleration needed to reachrenewables target

Foreword

Saudi Arabia is moving its renewable energy sector forward, with 22.8GW ofprojects in development as of October 2023, 2.8GW of which are expected to be
operational by the end of this year.36

RECAI 62

The Kingdom has indicated it will embrace all sources of renewables, and study
emerging technologies carefully, to achieve its national targets. In October, it
signed an MoU with India for green hydrogen, electrical interconnections andsupply chains. Under the agreement, the markets will cooperate on the exchangeof electricity in peak times and during emergencies, the co-development ofprojects and the establishment of resilient renewables supply chains.37

Normalized index

PPA Index

Saudi Arabia also revealed in September that it is in discussions with a Chinese
solar materials manufacturer to build an overseas factory in the Kingdom. This will
be capable of producing 120,000 tons of polysilicon annually, a crucial material in
the solar PV supply chain.

Key developments

The share of renewables in Saudi Arabia’s installed electricity generation capacity
has soared more than twelvefold since 2020 — but, despite this terrific growth, it
still accounts for only 1.3%. With its current renewable energy generation capacity
at just 1.2GW, Saudi Arabia will need to bring online 50 times more green power
capacity in just seven years to reach its ambitious 2030 target of 58.7GW ofrenewable energy generation.

Analysis

Recognizing the steep acceleration required to meet this goal, the Ministry ofEnergy has said it expects Saudi Arabia to invest US$293b in renewable energy
projects by 2030, with significant funds earmarked for upgrading distribution
networks and transport lines.38

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

12Analysis

Where the wind blows
Stormy waters surround the offshore wind market. Will they bringabout a paradigm shift in how we fund and build large-scale energy
projects? And what could this mean for investors?

In brief• After years of success,offshore wind is at a
crossroads in its development,as spiraling costs and supply
chain issues force developers
to reassess projects.
• Surprising results from recent
contract auctions worldwide
suggest factors other thanprice should be taken into
account when assessing bids.
• Governments must ensure aregular flow of new projects,
and adjust subsidies andbudgets to market changes,
so developers get areasonable return on
investment.

On 12 July 2023, you might just have heard sharp
intakes of breath the world over as the results ofGermany’s first dynamic offshore wind auctions wereannounced. The winning bidders promised to pay€12.6b (US$13.46b) for the rights to build offshore windprojects in the North and Baltic Seas — ventures that are
expected to contribute 7GW of clean sustainable energy
to the German national grid, enough for more thansix million homes.
A couple of hundred miles away, another auction was
taking place that would produce another significant
number: zero. On 8 September 2023, it was announced
that the UK’s fifth allocation round (AR5) for sustainableenergy generation had failed to attract a single bidder foroffshore wind contracts, despite offering similar locations
and climatic conditions as the German sale.
Other signs of turbulence are appearing too. Projects
in late-stage development are being put on hold bydevelopers who say they can no longer make a return on
their investment. The reasons behind this tell us muchabout the complexity of the offshore wind market and hintthat a change might be in the air.

US$280b

amount that cost inflation could add
in capital expenditure for the offshore
wind sector (excluding China) over the
next decade.

Rising project costs
Until recently, offshore wind was widely seen as a runaway
success: Ever-declining construction costs, attractive
government subsidies, low interest rates and an insatiable
demand fed by stringent net-zero energy targets havegiven investors, developers and manufacturers a great
environment in which to do business.
The risk and volatility caused by the continuous pressure
to be bigger, better and cheaper, compounded bysupply chain imbalances on the back of the COVID-19
pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have, however, createduncertainty with the economics of projects and squeezed
margins in the supply chain.
Turbine manufacturer Siemens Energy reported profit
before special items for the third quarter of 2023 ofnegative €2.048b (Q3 FY 2022: negative €222m). While
this was mainly driven by quality issues of certain onshore
platforms, challenges in the offshore business related
to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges”
contributed to it.39 Margins for turbine manufacturers (andfor the industry as whole) were squeezed when input costs(such as steel and labor) increased in an unprecedented
way, making it difficult to hedge. This has led to a
substantial re-pricing of supply and installation contracts
as original equipment manufacturers try to rebalance
their books. Cost inflation could add around US$280b
in capital expenditure40 for the offshore wind sector(excluding China) over the next decade — a gap that can
only be bridged by higher offtake prices, funded directly
by consumers or indirectly through additional fiscal andtax incentives.

Foreword

RECAI 62

AuthorsErico LimaEY Global Offshore Wind Leader
erico.lima@uk.ey.com

Normalized index

Andrew Horstead
EY Global Power & Utilities
Lead Analyst
ahorstead@uk.ey.com

PPA Index

Contributors

Key developments

Andrew Perkins
Partner, Corporate Finance,
Ernst & Young LLP
aperkins@uk.ey.com
Anthony Tricot
EY UK&I Head of Generation andPower Markets, Economic Consulting
atricot@uk.ey.com
Kinga Charpentier
EY Nordics Renewables Co-Leadkinga.charpentier@fi.ey.com

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

13AnalysisWind turbine costs have jumped 39% since 2019 due to supply chain
constraints and rising raw material costs
Average wind turbine equipment costs have increased 39% in the last three years. This
trend reverses the decline seen in previous years, with costs falling due to advancements intechnology and increased process efficiency.
Change in average per megawatt equipment cost of wind turbine, indexed to 2019
2012

138%

2013

120%

2014
2015

112%

The impact is reduced levels of interest in auctions,some canceled contracts, and a refocus on coregeographies. All of which will have an effect on the
supply chain, which will experience a pinch point
when the delayed projects finally make it throughto market — along with other new tenders — toward
the back half of this decade.

102%

2016

105%

2017

104%

2018

101%

2019

100%

2020

101%

2021

It’s not all about the price

128%

2022

139%
39%

Note: The change in average equipment is the percentage difference in the average per megawatt equipment cost ofwind turbine in the respective years compared with the cost in 2019 (base year). In the past decade, the average
equipment cost of wind turbine were lowest in 2019.
Source: EY analysis of data from GlobalData.

“

We’ve been lucky to have very low-cost power coming throughoffshore wind, with the low cost of money and a supply chain thathas carried on reducing prices as scale has increased, but the actual
cost per hour has now changed. We’ve seen a correction, and that
correction is here to stay.
Andrew Perkins
Partner, Corporate Finance, Ernst & Young LLP

Furthermore, the impact of rising interest rates
on project economics cannot be underestimated.
“Offshore wind is a mature technology and a
product of the macro environment in which it sits,”
says Andrew Perkins, Partner, Corporate Finance
Ernst & Young LLP. “Policymakers have had it very
good up until now — as have consumers. We’ve been
lucky to have very low-cost power coming throughoffshore wind, with the low cost of money and a
supply chain that has carried on reducing prices as
scale has increased, but the actual cost per hour
has now changed. We’ve seen a correction, andthat correction is here to stay.”

Many auctions for offshore wind projects use acontract for difference (CfD) model, by which
participants compete to offer the lowest per-unit
cost at which they will sell energy (the “strikeprice”). It’s a format that encourages value for the
taxpayer and provides stability to generators, but
the maximum strike price that bidders are allowed
to offer needs to reflect current market conditions
if bidders are to have confidence. When it doesn’t,
we can face the kind of situation the UK found itself
in with AR5.
With AR5, the UK government set a maximum
strike price of £44 (US$54) per megawatt hour
(MWh) for offshore wind,41 which was not enoughto entice developers to bid. Curiously, this was lessthan the strike prices offered for solar and onshore
wind in the same auction.

Anthony Tricot, EY UK&I Head of Generation andPower Markets, explains: “The government has
a role in setting auction parameters to ensure
they deliver value for money for consumers. The
fundamental thing, however, is that this is an
auction where you rely on competition to set theprice. By setting a low price cap, they prevented
the market from clearing at a competitive price.”

Foreword

Existing CfDs from previous auctions, such as
AR4, are also now being looked at through thelens of rising project costs. Investors are asking
themselves if they can make reasonable returns orwhether they should walk away from the CfDs andseek corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs)
or sit and wait for better conditions.
In 2022, for example, Swedish wind energy
specialist Vattenfall won the contract to build the
Norfolk Boreas wind farm with a joint record-low
strike price of £37.35/MWh (US$46.21/MWh).
Since then, however, Vattenfall has warned thatcosts for equipment and construction expenses
have increased to the point where the venture
is no longer economically viable — up 40% fromthe CfD decision point — and, in August 2023,
it decided to stop development of the project.
Vattenfall could terminate its CfD and reapply
for another CfD contract in the future if a more
attractive strike price can be achieved.

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

Similarly, Danish energy company Ørsted has
warned that it might pause the Hornsea 3 projectin the UK — expected to be the world’s largest
wind farm when it opens — unless it gets help withsurging costs. Hornsea 3 has the same £37.35/
MWh strike price as Norfolk Boreas.

How EY teams
can help

It’s not that the sector is fundamentally broken.
Other countries managed to successfully conclude
offshore wind tenders at reasonable prices. In
Ireland, for example, more than 3GW was awarded

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

RECAI 62

14

Contacts

Analysis

in June 2023, at an average strike price of €86/
MWh (US$91/MWh). In the Netherlands andGermany, subsidies are not even needed, given
their specific circumstances. More recently,
Lithuania concluded its first 700MW lease auction
with no subsidy available, in which an Ocean
Winds/Ignitis Renewables joint venture won with a€20m (US$21m) development fee.
There is a real possibility that the UK government
could take the lessons learned from AR5, increase
the strike price ceiling to match the current reality,
revise its budget, and oversize the next auctions,
AR6 and AR7. This would minimize the material
delays and supply chain disruptions that willotherwise be created by AR5 (and potentially AR4)delivering next-to-zero megawatts.
In theory, future UK auctions could also see amove away from a price-only format toward theinclusion of non-price factors for seabed leases orfor CfDs, as happens already in markets such as
Germany, the Netherlands and France. At somepoint, it might be in the sector’s collective selfinterest to do this, to deliver true benefit to society
in terms of jobs, environmental improvements or
system integrations.

And this isn’t just a UK issue; challenges exist
across the Atlantic in the US, where we also seematerial price differences across regions and many
projects struggling.
Earlier this year, Avangrid terminated the
PPA for the Commonwealth Wind project in
Massachusetts, paying a US$48m penalty. In
addition, Rhode Island Energy canceled an auction
where Revolution Wind 2 (owned by Ørsted andEversource) was the sole bidder, because the priceasked was deemed too expensive and not in thebest interests of consumers.
Some auctions for US lease areas have also run
out of steam. While those off the East Coast
attracted record-breaking prices in February 2022,
and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management(BOEM) auctions in California attracted a large
crowd (albeit with much lower prices potentiallyreflecting more challenging conditions), the more
recent Gulf of Mexico auctions attracted very
low levels of developer interest. On 29 August
2023, BOEM announced that there were only twoparticipants in the auction, bidding for just oneof the three areas available. RWE was declared
the winner after only two rounds, paying just
US$5.6m for the Lake Charles, Louisiana, territory(approximately US$54 per acre) — way below the
prices paid for areas off the Californian coast(US$2,490 per acre).42

The reasons behind this are complex: US states are
subject to different power markets, have their own
mandates for renewable energy, and have differinglevels of pro- and anti-renewables legislation.
The US is also subject to the same global supply
chain pressures as the rest of the world, althoughstringent local content requirements and theInflation Reduction Act (IRA) could result indevelopers relying more heavily on a domestic
supply chain, rather than importing from overseas.

Furthermore, around 80% of the 15 markets with
offshore wind targets for 2030 are predicted tomiss their stated goals. To reach 2030 forecasts,
an average capacity of 35GW will need to beinstalled annually worldwide;44 less than 9GW of
new offshore wind has so far been added in 2023.45
The climate emergency and associated net-zerotargets mean there is an urgent need to ramp up
investment in the offshore wind supply chain all
around the world.

So, has CfD had its day? Maybe not, but factors
other than price may need to be included as thenext phase of offshore wind comes into sight.
“We need to recognize that offshore wind has
matured,” says Perkins. “Bidders need to beassessed in terms of delivery risk, their businessplan, their supply chain contracts and theirbalance sheets — everything else. These contracts
shouldn’t be won just on price.”

Many investors are also concerned that if the
supply chains are built out to satisfy peak
installation demand in 2030 (somewhere close
to government targets), there will be insufficientdemand to support it after 2030.46 And the FID
delays observed now only make things worse.
More certainty is required after 2030 in terms oftargets and planning by governments to smooth out
deployment to realistic levels and provide the longterm visibility needed to support more investments
in manufacturing capacity. Even so, without extra
support such as tax breaks, debt financing schemesor specific industrial policies supporting the wholevalue chain, it is unlikely that factories and ships will
be built fast enough.

Chained by the supply chains
Given the current market conditions, projects arebeing delayed in the expectation that construction
costs will reduce and revert closer to historicallevels. Globally, 24GW of offshore wind projects
that have secured a route to market, and arescheduled online between 2025 and 2027, have
not yet reached a final investment decision (FID).43

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help

80%

Contacts

proportion of the 15 markets with
2030 offshore wind targets that are
predicted to miss their goal.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

15

Analysis

More than 500GW of combined offshore wind capacity is targeted by 2050
Key regions with ambitious offshore wind targets
Germany

30GW

Netherlands

21GW

Taiwan

13GW

UK

50GW

US

30GW

70GW*
50GW

70GW
55GW

Japan

10GW

Ireland

5GW

Foreword

One challenge — until at least 2035 — will be to secure enoughof the critical materials and metals essential to turbine
manufacture. These are at high risk of supply disruption.

RECAI 62

Normalized index

15GW**
18GW

France

India

40GW

The US and Europe are likely to see supply bottlenecks
for turbines and components as early as 2025, as the
positive impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) isfelt. Increased ambition in Europe, continued rapid buildout
in China Mainland and large developing markets speeding up
their deployment are also factors at play.

40GW

PPA Index

30–45GW
37GW

30GW

Norway30GWSouth Korea~14GW

Poland***~11GW

Portugal

~10GW
2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Key developments

The challenge — until at least
2035 — will be to secure
enough of the critical materials
and metals essential to turbine
manufacture. These are at highrisk of supply disruption.

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help

Illustrative only.
* Greater than or equal to 70GW.
** Floating offshore wind target.
***Poland has set a target of 10.9GW for 2027.

Contacts

Note: Rest of the world has a combined target of 39GW. The countries include Columbia, Greece, Spain,
Vietnam, and regions of Canada and Australia.
Source: EY analysis of data from Global Wind Energy Council.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

16Analysis

The average price of eight key materials needed to build a wind turbine
have increased by ~86% since 2020
A major driver of cost escalation is the increase in the price of critical materials required to manufacture
wind turbines. Beyond the steel used to build the tower, the most significant materials requirements fora wind turbine are chromium, copper, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, rare earths and zinc.
Increase in wind turbine material prices 2020 to 2023*
Molybdenum

285%

Rare earths

126%

Nickel72%

Manganese

52%

Copper47%

Chromium

43%

Steel**

42%

Zinc

It’s fair to say that the offshore sector has also
become a victim of its own success. It has driven
down costs in a kind of “race to the bottom,”aiming to make turbines not just cheaper, butalso bigger. In July 2023, the world’s largest windturbine — featuring 123m-long blades and capableof producing 16MW — began testing off the coastof China’s Fujian province.
The problem with a race to the bottom is that,eventually, you reach the bottom, and can’t go any
further. A common complaint from the offshore
wind supply chain is that it doesn’t have time torecoup the costs of R&D before more is demanded
by developers — all of whom are looking to gain acompetitive advantage over their neighbors down
the coast.
“Turbine manufacturers are constantly being
pushed to produce new, innovative turbines —bigger turbines,” says Perkins. “That doesn’t justmean their return is poor; they are also unable topass on economies of scale or value to others in the
supply chain. Developers think that they are getting
good value because they are getting a turbine thatis bigger and better and can beat someone else’s,
but this is just driving up R&D costs, labor costs andvessel costs, and squeezing the turbine supply chain
so there’s no money in it.”
These ever-increasing turbines not only need larger
and stronger structures to support them, but also
bigger warehouses, ports and ships to store andtransport them. “As soon as 2025 or 2026, I think
we will see a bottleneck caused by a lack of the ships
we need to take these massive turbines to site,”says Kinga Charpentier, EY Nordics Renewables
Co-Lead “There aren’t many vessels in the worldthat can accommodate these colossal structures.
Shipbuilders are reluctant to build vessels that will
become obsolete in five years, when an even bigger
turbine comes along.”

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

23%* January 2020 to March 2023 (except steel).
** Steel percentage is the change in steel prices based on the average of US HRC Domestic and China HRC Export
prices between January 2020 and August 2023.

Analysis

Source: EY analysis of data from IMF and IEA.

Data andmethodology“

As soon as 2025 or 2026, I think we will see a bottleneck caused by a lackof the ships we need to take these massive turbines to site. There aren’t
many vessels in the world that can accommodate these colossal structures.
Shipbuilders are reluctant to build vessels that will become obsolete in five
years, when an even bigger turbine comes along.

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Kinga Charpentier
EY Nordics Renewables Co-Lead

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

17Analysis

Offshore wind turbines expanding in size
Offshore wind turbine size has increased exponentially in the last decade. The rotor size has increased by 185% since 2013, and the hub height has almost doubled.
This has increased the electricity generation capacity per turbine, by ~400%.

Illustrative only

1991

2001

2003

2010

2013

2015

2017

2021

2023

2025*

Denmark

Denmark

Denmark

Denmark

Denmark

UK

UK

Netherlands

Netherlands

UK

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

VindebyMiddelgrunden

NystedHorns Rev 2

AnholtWestermost RoughBurbo Bank Extension

Borssele III & IV

Hollandse Kust Noord

Sofia

0.45MW

2.00MW

2.30MW

2.30MW

3.60MW

6.00MW

8.00MW

9.50MW

11.00MW

14.00MWRD: 35m
H: 35m

RD: 76m
H: 64m

RD: 82m
H: 69m

RD: 93m
H: 68m

RD: 120m
H: 82m

RD: 154m
H: 102m

RD: 164m
H: 113m

RD: 164m
H: 116m

RD: 200m
H: 135m

RD: 222m
H: ~138m* Under construction.
Note: The infographics do not include the prototype or demonstration projects, which include Vestas 15MW offshore wind turbine prototype in Denmark (V236-15.0 MW) as well as thetesting of 16MW wind turbine (MingYang Smart Energy MySE 16-260) and unveiling of the 18MW wind turbine (CSSC Haizhuang H260-18MW) by Three Georges Energy in China.

H: hub heightKey developments

Analysis

RD: rotor diameter

Data andmethodology

Source: EY Knowledge analysis of data from publicly available media articles.

Where does the supply chain go from here?
Perkins believes “it’s for industry to recognize theincrease in long-term commercial risk as turbines
get bigger, and to change. To say, ‘OK, we wantthese things to work and to be cost-effective inthe long term. Let’s recognize that these turbinesneed to operate at a high level and be financeable,
so let’s not necessarily go for the cheapest deal
possible — let’s put constraints around it.’”Could governments put a limit on the size ofoffshore turbines to relieve this supply chain
tension and give manufacturers more confidence?

Some might say such a move would stifle
innovation, and one industry player we spoke todescribed such a move as “completely ridiculous.”
Others could argue that it might motivate research
into how to make turbines more efficient in waysthat don’t involve scale.

One thing is for certain: The drive toward
nationalism and protectionism seen ingovernments the world over in recent years is nothelping the supply chain to become more global.
While intergovernmental collaboration might be
too much to expect, a different approach is needed
to make the supply chain work.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

18

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Analysis

Entering a new chapter
As we move into a new era for offshore wind, it’stime to start thinking about value, as well as cost.
Nuclear, fossil fuel or offshore wind are the options
when it comes to baseload (or pseudo-baseload)
power generation. Of these three, offshore windis highly competitive on price, even with the needto create a regulatory and policy environment thatenables offshore wind to be built at a price thatoffers a fair return to investors.
Jonathan Cole, CEO of specialist offshore winddeveloper Corio Generation, agrees that offshore
wind is still a great place for investors to put theirmoney: “The long-term outlook is very positive;
renewable energy has an incredible growth journeyahead of it to meet decarbonization goals, andoffshore wind will play a huge part in that. Over
this short-term, five- to six-year future, there
needs to be a huge exercise in protecting thoseprojects that have got off the ground — thatare already agreed and under way. This means
price renegotiation with whomever the pricesetters are.”Charpentier agrees and adds: “There is a new
reality now. Price expectations need to be adjusted
for investors to be able to get a reasonable return.
It’s an adjustment that will happen, because people
will still need to deploy capital, but it may take acouple of years for the market to readjust.”
As we move into offshore wind’s new chapter andthe sector matures, there may well be casualties,
but inefficiencies will be driven out, and newcompetition (capability, service, quality and asset
performance) will enter the space that will benefit
the consumer.

Governments need to adapt to support this new,more volatile phase and ensure a regular flow of
new projects to market. They need to be quick toreact to market changes, adjusting subsidy andbudgets so developers can realistically expect areasonable return on their investments.

Foreword

Governments should also be seeking ways tosimplify and expedite the consenting process,minimizing the time between the award of an
offtake and FID. Generators are exposed to risk
during this period (construction cost, interest
rates, inflation, etc.) until their cost base is fixed.
Finally, subsidy regimes could incorporatemechanisms that mitigate the risks overwhich developers have little to no control. This
could be adjustments to strike prices throughconstruction-related indices (as in Ireland) or toreflect movements in the risk-free rates (as inFrance). Non-price factors, such as environmental
considerations and job creation, could also help
ensure these large projects deliver broader
benefits to society.
In its new chapter, the offshore sector will not only
supply cheaper, greener electricity, it will also help
the evolution of the heat industry, green hydrogenproduction and the e-mobility economy. This isreally what we have been investing in for the
past 30 years, and now we are at this crucial andnecessary point — the point at which the offshore
industry grows up and starts delivering on its
enormous potential.

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index
Wind-powered hydrogen

Key developments

Electrification isn’t the only way to net zero: Hydrogen can decarbonize what electrification
cannot — particularly heavy industry and transport. As well as being a clean fuel, it is afundamental building block in the chemical industry. Its importance cannot be overstated.
“Green hydrogen” is made with sustainable electricity, used to split water molecules into theircomponent atoms via electrolysis (in contrast to gray hydrogen, made from natural gas ormethane, or blue hydrogen that uses natural gas with carbon capture and storage).

Analysis

It’s an attractive prospect for organizations within the petrochemical industry, which haveexperience and infrastructure that can be directly converted and adapted for the transport andstorage of hydrogen. Output from offshore wind turbines could even be used to directly powerelectrolyzers onshore, near the offshore transmission cable landfall, minimizing the use of amarket’s national grid, which would attract extra costs.

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help

Hydrogen electrolyzers can also be attached to turbines, working alongside desalination plants
to turn seawater directly into hydrogen, which can be piped or shipped to land.

Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

19

Data and methodology

RECAI 62 scores
Ranking

MarketTechnology-specific scores

Previous
rankingMovement vs.
previous

Score

Onshorewind

OffshorewindSolar PV

Solar CSP

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Marine

1

US

1

73.9

58.4

59.5

58.3

46.8

40.8

47.4

39.6

20.7

2

Germany

2

71.4

53.4

52.3

56.1

32.4

50.7

38.1

41.4

20.9

3

China Mainland

3

71.4

52.5

55.7

61.5

55.0

49.3

24.8

51.0

17.9

4

France

5

70.6

56.2

52.3

54.8

23.9

46.9

39.8

42.1

38.5

5

Australia

7

70.2

53.5

42.4

57.2

47.2

41.8

15.8

27.1

25.7

6

India

6

69.2

53.7

28.7

62.7

34.3

43.6

24.8

48.9

20.0

7

UK

4

68.3

57.6

57.6

48.0

15.1

54.8

36.8

39.3

34.8

8

Spain

8

67.1

54.0

35.6

54.0

29.2

40.0

15.4

23.2

23.0

9

Denmark

11

66.3

54.1

51.5

47.0

17.4

45.4

16.4

22.3

22.1

10

Netherlands

9

66.1

53.5

48.3

48.8

16.0

51.7

24.8

27.7

16.8

11

Canada

12

65.1

55.8

39.5

48.2

19.9

36.4

26.3

47.9

26.9

12

Ireland

13

63.4

49.6

47.3

46.4

19.7

36.2

17.9

21.9

24.7

13

Japan

10

63.3

48.4

50.7

49.1

18.5

56.6

44.3

37.3

22.6

14

Italy

15

63.2

47.2

40.9

51.1

31.1

42.1

32.3

45.7

18.4

15

Poland

17

62.4

49.1

41.1

49.2

14.0

46.3

20.1

36.4

14.7

16

Chile

14

61.9

51.5

22.4

48.0

55.3

42.7

47.0

45.1

28.0

17

Sweden

20

61.4

49.0

42.6

42.6

16.3

44.3

18.8

36.6

27.8

18

Greece

16

61.1

49.0

30.9

47.9

36.0

43.6

25.5

39.0

15.1

19

Brazil

18

60.8

50.0

31.9

52.5

24.8

49.4

12.9

45.0

18.5

20

Finland

21

60.0

60.1

30.2

37.0

15.7

45.3

15.7

23.1

15.7

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

20

Data and methodology

RECAI 62 scoresTechnology-specific scores

Ranking

MarketPrevious
ranking

21

Belgium

22

Movement vs.
previous

Score

Onshorewind

OffshorewindSolar PV

Solar CSP

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Marine

24

59.9

51.2

39.5

42.0

18.5

41.5

22.8

25.7

18.1

Portugal

22

59.7

43.6

24.0

49.3

25.3

40.5

23.2

36.9

23.9

23

Israel

19

59.7

41.8

15.3

54.1

36.4

28.7

14.7

17.7

15.0

24

Taiwan

26

59.1

42.0

47.2

45.9

19.0

29.9

27.2

33.8

29.2

25

Morocco

23

58.8

45.1

17.4

51.1

50.7

25.2

13.9

34.0

13.9

26

Norway

31

58.2

46.1

43.2

39.9

15.8

33.8

18.2

46.7

33.6

27

South Korea

25

57.3

38.3

40.8

48.1

18.2

48.5

16.7

29.3

32.4

28

Austria

29

57.3

46.0

22.5

43.5

14.4

42.5

17.8

42.5

21.5

29

Argentina

30

56.9

50.4

22.1

49.0

31.6

36.7

18.1

35.5

17.7

30

Turkey

27

56.7

48.9

20.6

48.4

23.8

41.6

42.5

45.4

19.6

31

Egypt

28

56.5

47.2

15.8

53.8

36.6

24.6

11.5

23.0

11.5

32

Philippines

33

56.1

42.6

20.5

47.4

19.9

40.2

44.0

41.7

21.2

33

Vietnam

36

56.0

45.4

42.0

44.3

17.6

39.3

13.1

46.6

18.7

34

Switzerland

34

55.9

41.3

17.8

44.2

18.5

36.2

25.3

39.0

15.5

35

Mexico

35

55.5

42.1

21.3

48.0

24.5

34.9

40.2

35.1

19.1

36

Kazakhstan

32

55.4

49.8

16.2

43.2

18.1

35.0

16.3

41.4

13.8

37

South Africa

37

54.3

46.9

20.0

44.7

47.4

31.6

12.5

19.8

20.7

38

Thailand

38

54.2

42.7

16.2

44.2

21.6

41.8

16.6

31.7

18.6

39

Romania

44

53.9

41.4

17.2

43.6

13.7

34.6

16.3

34.5

13.7

40

Saudi Arabia

39

53.7

45.1

17.9

46.5

28.1

23.6

15.8

12.1

11.8

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

21

Data and methodology

RECAI 62 methodology

Foreword

The index rankings reflect our assessment of the factors driving
market attractiveness in a world where renewable energy has gone
beyond decarbonization and reliance on subsidies.
We have defined the questions being asked, based on what
we see as global market trends affecting investment anddeployment priorities, and the challenges and success factors
impacting EY clients:• I● s there a long-term need for additional or replacement
energy supply? If so, is there a strong case for energy fromrenewable resources in particular?
• Is● the market actively seeking to reduce reliance on fossil
fuels?
● policy hindering or helping the ability to exploit• Is
renewables opportunities?
●
essential components in place to ensure project• Are
delivery, such as long-term contracts, grid infrastructure(including storage) and availability of finance?
• What●does the strength of natural resource, track recordand project pipeline reveal about the outlook for particularrenewable technologies?
• Even●if all other elements are in place, does the macro
stability and investment climate enable or impede the easeof doing business?
These index pillars therefore put emphasis on fundamentals
such as energy imperative, policy stability, project delivery(including capital availability) and diversity of natural
resource — factors that will increasingly become key market
differentiators as markets move toward grid parity, and“artificial” motivations, such as government targets or the
ring-fencing of technologies, become less critical.

RECAI 62

Determining the rankings
Each parameter within the five pillars comprises a seriesof data sets that are converted into a score, from one tofive, and weighted to generate parameter scores. These
are weighted again to produce pillar scores, then an overall
RECAI score and ranking. Weightings are based on the EY
assessment of the relative importance of each data set,parameter and pillar in driving investment and deployment
decisions. Each technology is also allocated a weighting basedon its share of historical and projected investment levels.

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Separate from the main index, EY technology-specificindices rankings reflect a weighted average score acrossthe technology-specific parameters, and a combined scorecovering our other macro and energy market parameters.
This is because some markets may be highly attractive for
specific technologies but face other major barriers to entry.

Analysis

Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,
EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data. We are unable
to publicly disclose the underlying data sets or weightings
used to produce the indices.

Data andmethodology

If you would like to discuss how EY RECAI analysis could help
your business decisions or transactions, please contact the
RECAI advisor Phil Dominy.

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6222

Data and methodology

Normalized index methodology

Foreword

With the largest global markets tending to top the core RECAI, there are many smaller markets whererenewable energy is growing rapidly and becoming highly attractive. By dividing a market’s RECAI
score by logarithm of the average of the three preceding years’ GDP to produce a “normalized score,” theindex identifies those smaller renewable energy markets that perform best on the core RECAI pillars ofenergy mix, government support, project delivery and natural resource. Removing a market’s economic
size showcases those that are efficient in terms of their size and the most attractive for investors. The
normalized index also highlights larger markets that score well in the core RECAI but could be doing
more to support the green transition.

RECAI 62

Normalized index

See the normalized index ranking on page 5.

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6223

Data and methodology

PPA Index scores
Ranking Market

Previous
rankingMovement vs.
previous

Normalized
score (0–100)

PPA Index
score

PPA market
maturity

PPA future
market score

PPA policy
score

RECAI
score

1

Germany1

100.0

25,458,114.4

74.4

88.2

54.3

71.4

2

Spain

2

99.0

25,200,665.6

82.5

89.1

51.1

67.1

3

US

3

90.8

23,107,989.4

100.0

55.1

56.7

73.9

4

UK

4

82.3

20,946,282.6

73.4

82.2

50.8

68.3

5

France5

78.8

20,067,288.7

64.8

82.0

53.5

70.6

6

Australia

6

66.4

16,908,887.9

76.2

54.2

58.4

70.2

7

Denmark

8

63.6

16,183,026.8

58.1

82.3

51.1

66.3

8

Netherlands

9

61.7

15,705,718.6

61.4

76.0

50.9

66.1

9

Sweden11

58.4

14,871,986.5

63.2

78.6

48.8

61.4

10

Poland10

56.6

14,412,940.2

64.1

64.7

55.7

62.4

11

Finland

12

56.2

14,299,173.4

64.3

70.1

52.9

60.0

12

Italy

13

56.1

14,272,693.3

54.0

82.9

50.4

63.2

13

India

7

48.7

12,408,130.7

63.2

41.8

68.0

69.2

14

Norway15

42.5

10,810,453.7

57.6

65.0

49.6

58.2

15

Brazil14

34.5

8,789,615.4

62.5

54.3

42.5

60.8

16

Canada28.2

7,181,813.4

43.1

50.2

51.0

65.1

17

Ireland

19

26.2

6,657,809.5

51.0

35.7

57.5

63.4

18

Chile

17

21.5

5,484,434.4

43.5

38.5

52.9

61.9

19

Egypt

22

21.2

5,386,356.5

45.2

38.8

54.4

56.5

20

Belgium23

20.5

5,225,614.0

55.0

31.9

49.8

59.9

21

Morocco24

19.8

5,052,994.9

39.3

37.1

58.9

58.8

22

Colombia

21

18.9

4,817,710.6

50.5

39.4

49.6

48.8

23

South Africa

20

16.7

4,260,528.5

40.8

36.2

53.2

54.3

24

Portugal

18

16.5

4,205,165.4

20.9

65.8

51.3

59.7

25

Japan

16

16.4

4,167,144.7

26.3

47.5

52.7

63.3

26

Greece26

15.3

3,894,946.4

35.9

35.5

49.9

61.1

27

Romania28

14.5

3,688,908.0

35.8

36.0

53.0

53.9

28

Thailand25

12.8

3,270,352.6

40.3

24.3

61.6

54.2

29

Ethiopia27

12.4

3,155,146.3

36.1

34.6

58.6

43.1

30

Bulgaria

11.2

2,843,785.6

33.9

31.1

55.7

48.4

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis
Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

24Data and methodology

PPA market maturity

PPA Index methodology
By analyzing the same 100 markets as in the full RECAI database, the goal is to create a
new ranking that focuses on the attractiveness of renewable power procurement — via
offsite corporate PPAs — rather than the attractiveness of renewable project investment.
The final score for the top 30 markets is calculated from aweighted combination of 12 key parameters, which act as aproxy for corporate PPA potential. The PPA Index focuses onfour pillars (three PPA-specific pillars together with a RECAI
score pillar):

The PPA Index uses a multiplicative formula to prioritize wellrounded markets with strengths in all aspects of corporate
PPA development and integration. For example, this will
mean that markets with zero PPA deals to date will score zero
overall and will not yet be included.

• PPA market maturity — this focuses on activities carriedout within each market in the past decade. It concentrates
on market maturity, looking at past PPA deal frequency andvolume, as well as a quantitative analysis of more recent
PPA deal growth.

However, with strong weighting on forward-looking
parameters, even markets with just a few deals to date could
score highly if significant growth is expected in the corporate
PPA market within the next five years — the horizon of RECAI.

• PPA future market — this forward-looking score assesses
the forecast activity of each market. Forecast power
capacity is a key driver of the magnitude of a market, so
this has a significant weighting on the score as well as
the wholesale power price relative to the levelized costof energy (LCOE) or PPA price in each market. Forecast
capacity installations and a weighted project pipeline scorefrom RECAI are used. The Index has focused on wind andsolar PPAs (together weighted at 93%) as these represent
the vast majority of offsite corporate PPAs.
• PPA policy score — this focuses on the ease of operation ina given market. If a market is to have potential for corporate
PPA growth, supporting government policy must be in placefor efficient and large-scale expansion. This is consideredin the core RECAI, but is also examined here, with a morenuanced focus on PPA supportive policy.
• RECAI score — the overall score yielded by RECAI is also
factored in as one of the fundamental pillars, because it
provides a strong overview of the existing and potential
strength of a market’s renewable energy landscape.

The RECAI PPA Index score (which can be very large) has
been normalized into a score from 0 to 100, to create a moremanageable reference value. The leading market will score
100 — but this does not mean that the market is perfect forcorporate PPAs. It means that, relatively speaking, it is themost attractive market for corporate PPAs across the coming
five years.
Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,
EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data. We are unable
to publicly disclose the exact data sets or weightings used to
produce the indices.
For more information on the services that EY teams provide
to corporates around renewable energy strategies and PPAs,
please refer to our website: www.ey.com/uk/ppa.

(Sources: Pexapark, DLA Piper and EY analysis)
1. Number of PPAs signed in the past five years
2. Total PPA volume in the past five years
3. Number of PPAs signed in the past year
4. Total PPA volume in the past year

Foreword

RECAI 62

PPA future market(Sources: Wood Mackenzie, GlobalData, IRENA, IEA, Pexapark
and EY analysis)
1. Pipeline of projects:
a. Forecast power capacity
b. Forecast installation growthc. Project pipeline
2. Wholesale power pricing:a.	Wholesale power price relative to the historic LCOE

Normalized index

PPA Index

b. Wholesale power price relative to the PPA priceKey developments

PPA policy score(Sources: World Bank, GlobalData, IEA and EY analysis)
1.	Ease of doing business index (World Bank)
2. Renewable energy imperative:• Renewable energy percentage of total generation• Percentage of population with access to electricity• Forecast energy consumption growth• CO2 emissions

Analysis
Data andmethodology

RECAI score

How EY teams
can help(Source: EY analysis)
1. Macro fundamentals
2. Energy imperative
3. Policy
4. Project delivery
5. Technology

Contacts

Special thanks to Pexapark for providing access to their data.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

06
25

How EY teams can help

What EY teams can do for you

Foreword

A global renewables industry is maturing quickly, shaped by new technologies, new businessmodels and new ecosystems. Opportunities are growing, but so is complexity, which creates
uncertainty, risk and delay.
The number of organizations generating renewable energy
is growing all the time. And so is the number of investors
ready to finance new energy projects and innovation.
For organizations intent on playing a leading role inrenewables, the ability to move quickly and decisively will
become more valuable, but also more difficult.
How do you find the right strategy to lead your organization
through the transition to renewables? What’s theactionable plan that executes that strategy while making
best use of all the tax breaks, incentives and financestructures available? Which new technologies should you
back, and to what extent? How do you take what works in
one market and scale it globally? What can you learn fromwhat’s working elsewhere?
Leaders need decisive answers that point to clear actions,and rapid access to the capabilities that will help them takethose actions.

RECAI 62

At EY, we’re using the combined experience of the EY
global network to help you accelerate your transition to
the world of renewable energy. We’re supporting you
to find better answers, take decisive action and move
forward faster. We do that by sharing our deep experience
in renewables across the globe and providing all thecapabilities you need in one integrated EY team — fromdefining the right long-term strategy, to helping deliverand operate power generation assets, to managing tax
incentives and financing structures.

Normalized index

PPA Index

We’re committed to changing the way we do business,
and we’re playing a leading role in efforts to help others
change. With EY Global Renewables, you’ll be ready to leadyour organization through the transition to renewables— and play your role in building the decarbonized,
sustainable economy that creates measurable long-termvalue for everyone.

Key developments

Analysisey.com/recai

Data andmethodology
How EY teams
can help

Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

26

Contacts

Foreword
Arnaud de Giovanni

Ben Warren

EY Global Renewables Leader

RECAI Chief Editor
Partner, Renewables Corporate
Finance, Ernst & Young LLP

arnaud.de.giovanni@fr.ey.com

RECAI 62

bwarren@uk.ey.com

Normalized index
Authors

Contributors

PPA Index

Key developments
Erico Lima

Andrew Horstead

Andrew Perkins

Anthony Tricot

Kinga Charpentier

EY Global Offshore
Wind Leader

EY Global Power & Utilities
Lead Analyst

Partner, Corporate Finance
Ernst & Young LLP

EY UK&I Head of Generation and Power
Markets, Economic Consulting

EY Nordics
Renewables Co-Leaderico.lima@uk.ey.com

ahorstead@uk.ey.com

aperkins@uk.ey.com

atricot@uk.ey.com

kinga.charpentier@fi.ey.com

Analysis

Data andmethodology

Advisor, research and modeling team

How EY teams
can help
Contacts
Phil Dominy
Senior RECAI Advisor
Ernst & Young LLP
pdominy@uk.ey.com

Nathan Docker

Malika Cornwall

Head of Research

Head of Modelling

EY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate
Finance Senior Executive, Ernst & Young LLP

EY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate
Finance Executive, Ernst & Young LLP

nathan.docker@uk.ey.com

malika.cornwall@uk.ey.com

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

27

Citations

References
1

Why The Global Stocktake Is A Critical Moment For Climate Action,” United Nations Climate Change website, unfccc.int/topics/
global-stocktake/about-the-global-stocktake/why-the-global-stocktake-is-a-critical-moment-for-climate-action, accessed
25 October 2023.

2

Ferris, Nick, “Data insight: the cost of a wind turbine has increased by 38% in two years,” Energy Monitor, 25 April 2023,
www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/data-insight-the-cost-of-a-wind-turbine-has-increased-by-38-in-two-years/?cf-view.

3“PPA Deal Tracker,” RE-Source website, resource-platform.eu/buyers-toolkit2/ppa-deal-tracker, accessed 23 October 2023.

4

Marzimin, Ashley, “European PPA Market Update, Q3 2023,” Inspiratia website, www.inspiratia.com/renewables/regions/europe/
region-deal-focus/article/european-ppa-market-update-q3-2023, accessed 23 October 2023.

5“PPA Deal Tracker,” RE-Source website, resource-platform.eu/buyers-toolkit2/ppa-deal-tracker, accessed 23 October 2023.

6

Ibid.

7

Shetty, Sangita, “US Solar Industry Set To Shine: Anticipating Historic 30+ GW Installations In 2023,” SolarQuarter, 9 September
2023, solarquarter.com/2023/09/09/us-solar-industry-set-to-shine-anticipating-historic-30-gw-installations-in-2023.

8

Mukherjee, Anushree and Verma, Harshit “US Solar Power Capacity To Expand By Record 32 Gigawatts In 2023, Report Says,”
Reuters, 7 September 2023, www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-power-capacity-expand-by-record-32-gigawatts-2023report-2023-09-07.

9

Shetty, Sangita, “US Solar Industry Set To Shine: Anticipating Historic 30+ GW Installations In 2023,” SolarQuarter, 9 September
2023, solarquarter.com/2023/09/09/us-solar-industry-set-to-shine-anticipating-historic-30-gw-installations-in-2023.

10

Adomaitis, Nerijus, Groom, Nichola and DiSavino, Scott, “US Offshore Wind Projects Facing Inflation Headwinds,”
Reuters, 11 September 2023, www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-offshore-wind-projects-facing-inflationheadwinds-2023-09-11.

11

Jones, Florence, “China To ‘Shatter’ Renewable Installation Targets by 2030,” PowerTechnology, 29 June 2023,
www.power-technology.com/news/china-shatter-renewable-installation-target.

12“China’s Half-Year Renewable Power Installations Hit Record High,” Fitch Ratings website, www.fitchratings.com/research/corporatefinance/chinas-half-year-renewable-power-installations-hit-record-high-15-08-2023, accessed 23 October 2023.

13

Woo, Ryan, “China’s Power Sector Investments May Top $13.7 Trillion By 2060,” Reuters, 2 October 2023, www.reuters.com/
business/energy/chinas-power-sector-investments-may-top-137-trillion-by-2060-2023-10-02.

14

https://www.inframationnews.com/news/14551013/china-allows-green-power-certificate-trades.thtml.

15

Corbet, Sylvie, “French President Macron Unveils Latest Plan For Meeting Climate-related Commitments In The Coming Years,”
PBS, 25 September 2023, www.pbs.org/newshour/world/french-president-macron-unveils-latest-plan-for-meeting-climate-relatedcommitments-in-the-coming-years.

16

Messad, Paul, “France Readies To Integrate EU Climate Targets Into Its Energy Strategy,” Euractiv, 15 September 2023, www.
euractiv.com/section/energy/news/france-readies-integration-of-eu-targets-into-its-energy-strategy

17

Peacock, Bella, “‘Australia’s Largest Battery’: Equis’ 2.4GWh Battery In Melbourne Secures Federal Approval,” PV Magazine,
11 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/11/australias-largest-battery-equis-2-4-gwh-battery-in-melbournesecures-federal-approval.

18

Reed, Ed, “Australia Takes Aim At Offshore Wind For Cleaner Future,” Energy Voice, 8 September 2023, www.energyvoice.com/
renewables-energy-transition/wind/australasia-wind/527179/australia-offshore-wind-2030-competition.

19

Lee, Andrew, “Zero Offshore Win As UK Renewables Auction Flops In Huge Blow To Green Power Ambitions,” Recharge,
8 September 2023, www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/zero-offshore-wind-as-uk-renewables-auction-flops-in-huge-blow-togreen-power-ambitions/2-1-1513647?zephr_sso_ott=aeM1jZ.

20“Offshore Wind Flops In 3.7GW CfD5,” Renews.biz, 8 September 2023, renews.biz/88012/offshore-wind-flops-in-37gw-cfd5.

21

Lee, Andrew “Zero Offshore Win As UK Renewables Auction Flops In Huge Blow To Green Power Ambitions,” Recharge,
8 September 2023, www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/zero-offshore-wind-as-uk-renewables-auction-flops-in-huge-blow-togreen-power-ambitions/2-1-1513647?zephr_sso_ott=aeM1jZ.

22

23

24

Ravikumar, Sachin and Smout, Alistair, “Britain Eases Planning Rules For Onshore Wind Projects In England,” Reuters,
5 September 2023, www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-govt-speed-up-approval-some-onshore-wind-projects-england-2023-09-05.
Ajdin, Adis, “Green Light For Poland’s $5bn Offshore Wind Project,” Splash 247, 12 October 2023, splash247.com/green-light-forpolands-5bn-offshore-wind-project.
“Poland And Norway Join Forces To Drive Innovation In Offshore Wind,” OE (Offshore Engineer), 12 October 2023,
www.oedigital.com/news/508714-poland-and-norway-join-forces-to-drive-innovation-in-offshore-wind.

25

Sieniawski, Bartosz, “Poland OKs New Legislation For Constructing Renewable Energy Sources,” Euractiv, 31 August 2023,
www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/poland-oks-new-legislation-for-constructing-renewable-energy-sources.

26“Poland: Admittance Of Modifications Of 10H Rule For Wind Farm Locations – Important Changes For The Investors,”
Dentons website, www.dentons.com/en/insights/alerts/2023/march/20/admittance-of-modifications-of-10h-rule-for-windfarm-locations, accessed 23 October 2023.

27

Publie, Alix, “Brazil To Invest R$75bn In Renewable Energy,” I J Global, 24 August 2023, www.ijglobal.com/articles/174833/
brazil-to-invest-r-75bn-in-renewable-energy.

28“Brazil’s Senate Approves Bill To Regulate Carbon Credit Market,” Bnamericas, 5 October 2023, www.bnamericas.com/en/
news/brazils-senate-approves-bill-to-regulate-carbon-credit-market.

29“Egypt Accelerates Energy Transition With Revised Climate Commitments,” Arab News, 27 June 2023, www.arabnews.com/
node/2328956/business-economy.

30“Egypt Sees $2.6bln Renewable Energy Investments in 2023-2023,” Zawya, 12 September 2023, www.zawya.com/en/
projects/utilities/egypt-sees-26bln-renewable-energy-investment-in-2023-2024-lnegr00m.

31

Shaw, Alfie, “UK Turns To Egypt For Renewable Energy Imports,” Offshore Technology, 25 September 2023,
www.offshore-technology.com/news/uk-to-import-clean-energy-from-europe.

32

Skujins, Angela, “New Reforms, Liberalised Energy Market Help Untap Philippines’ Solar Potential,” PV Magazine,
12 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/12/new-reforms-liberalised-energy-market-help-untapphilippines-solar-potential.

33

Skujins, Angela, “Philippines’ First Canal-top Solar Irrigation Projects Go Online,” PV Magazine, 6 October 2023,
www.pv-magazine.com/2023/10/06/philippines-first-canal-top-solar-irrigation-projects-go-online.

34

Kahana, Lior, “Philippines To Build New 100MW Floating Solar Power Farm,” PV Magazine, 11 September 2023,
www.pv-magazine.com/2023/09/11/philippines-to-build-new-100-mw-floating-solar-power-farm.

35

Skujins, Angela, “New Reforms, Liberalised Energy Market Help Untap Philippines’ Solar Potential,” PV Magazine,
12 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/12/new-reforms-liberalised-energy-market-help-untapphilippines-solar-potential.

36

Takla, Reina and El-Shaeri, Nour, “Saudi Arabia Advances With Clean Energy Projects, Aiming For 50% Renewables By 2030,”
Arab News, 8 October 2023, www.arabnews.com/node/2387486/business-economy.

37

Cucuk, Aida, “India And Saudi Arabia Ally On Clean Energy,” Offshore Energy, 9 October 2023, www.offshore-energy.biz/
india-and-saudi-arabia-ally-on-clean-hydrogen.

38

Castelier, Sebastian, “Saudi Arabia In Race Against Time To Achieve 2030, Green Electricity Goal,” Al-Monitor, 12 September
2023, www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/08/saudi-arabia-race-against-time-achieve-2030-green-electricity-goal.

39

Earnings Release Q3 FY 2023: Serious ramp-up challenges in the wind business overshadow excellent performance inconventional energy business, Siemens Energy, 7 August 2023, www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/press-releases/
earnings-release-q3-fy-2023.html#:~:text=Siemens%20Energy%27s%20results%20of%20the,from%20a%20favorable%20
market%20environment.

40”Tackling the cost inflation challenge in Offshore Wind,” Westwood Energy website, www.westwoodenergy.com/wp-content/
uploads/2023/06/Tackling-the-Cost-Inflation-Challenge-in-Offshore-Wind.pdf, accessed 23 October 2023.

41

Pricing in 2012 terms. This equates to £61/MWh in August 2023.

42

Bachtel, Lauren and Kim, Will, “US BOEM Announces First Offshore Wind Auction In The Gulf of Mexico,” Linklaters,
24 July 2023, www.linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2023/july/24/us-boemannounces-first-offshore-wind-auction-in-the-gulf-of-mexico.

43

Global Offshore Wind Report 2023, Global Wind Energy Council August 2023, 25, gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/
GWEC-Global-Offshore-Wind-Report-2023.pdf

44

Global Offshore Wind Report 2023, Global Wind Energy Council August 2023, 25, gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/
GWEC-Global-Offshore-Wind-Report-2023.pdf

45

Hazarika, Gautamee, “Global Offshore Wind Records Second Best Year Ever, Adds 8.8GW In 2022,” Mercom website,
6 September 2023, www.mercomindia.com/global-offshore-wind-year-ever-adds-8-8-gw-in-2022.

46

US$27 Billion Investment Required To Mobilise Global Offshore Wind Supply Chain,” Wood Mackenzie website,
August 17, 2023, www.woodmac.com/press-releases/27-billion-investment-required-to-mobilise-global-offshore-windsupply-chain (accessed September 27, 2023).
Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

Foreword

RECAI 62

Normalized index

PPA Index

Key developments

Analysis

Data andmethodology

How EY teams
can help
Contacts

28

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