The Winnersof the Blue
1995

PlanetPrize

1995Blue

PlanetDr. Bert Bolin(Sweden)Professor

Emeritus

Prize
Maurice F. Strong(Canada)at theUniversityofChairmanof the Earth Council

Stockholm

As 1995 marked the 100th anniversary of thebirth of Kenji Miyazawa, excerpts from his literary works on nature were featured in the 1995
awards ceremony slide presentation. The bountiful gifts of nature and humankind's hopes forthe future were depicted in the photographs ofTakeshi Hosokawa, an eminent nature photographer.

153

His Highness

Prince Akishino

congratulates

the laureates.

His Highness Prince Akishino and Her Highness
Princess Kiko at the congratulatory
party.

The prizewinners
receive
their trophies and certificatesof merit from Foundation
ChairmanJiro Furumoto.

Alf M. Vahlquist (left), ambassador of Sweden to Japan, andDonald W. Campbell, ambassador of Canada to Japan, congratulate the award recipients.
Dr. Syukuro
Manabe,the first
Blue Planet laureate, asks a question from his seat in the audience
after Dr. Bolin's lecture.

154

Profile

Dr. Bert
Professor

Emeritus

at the University

Bolinof Stockholm

Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1946
Received B.Sc. from the University of Uppsala
1947-50 Studied under Professor C.G. Rossby and received M.Sc. from the University of
Stockholm
1956
Earned doctorate degree from the University of Stockholm
1956
Became assistant director for the International Meteorological Institute (IMI) in
Stockholm
1957-90 Served as director of the IMI
1961-90 Served as professor of meteorology at the University of Stockholm
1965-67 Served as scientific director of the European Space Research Organization in Paris
1967
Proposed the establishment of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP)
while serving as the president of the Committee of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) of
the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU)
1967-71 Served as the first chairman of the Joint Organizing Committee of GARP, which was
jointly launched by ICSU and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
1974

1979

Organized and chaired the first major planning effort for global climate research,which formed the starting point for the World Climate Research Program (WCRP),
established in 1980
Edited Report No. 13, entitled "Global Carbon Cycle," of the monograph series of
ICSU's environmental committee (SCOPE)

1983-86 Led the ICSU-UNEP-WMO Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, which gave
rise to the publication of SCOPE Report No. 29, entitled "Greenhouse Effect,
Climatic Change, and Ecosystems"
1983-86 Served as a member of the Scientific Advisory Board (Forskningsberedningen) to the
Swedish government
1985-91 Chaired an ICSU committee that proposed the establishment of the International
Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP)
1986-88 Served as scientific advisor to the prime minister and deputy prime minister of
Sweden1988-97 Served as Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC)
As professorof meteorology

Meteorological

Institute,cycles,particularlyof the carbon

cycle

at the University
Dr. Bolinof Stockholm

has conducted

the carbon

cycle.

Earlythat takes

full accountbasic

and director

researchof the International

on global

biogeochemical

in his career,

he developed

a sophisticatedof influencesof the oceans,

atmosphere,model
and bios-155

phere. His work is well known throughout the world and serves as a basis for today's general
understanding of global warming. As head of numerous international scientific committees,
Dr. Bolin has helped provide a sound scientific basis for policy decisions about global warming and greenhouse gases.
Since 1988, Dr. Bolin has chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), which was established to assess the scientific body of knowledge concerning climatechange which served as the basis for negotiations aimed at preventing global warming at the
Earth Summit in 1992. These led to the adoption of the Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which was adopted at the Earth Summit in 1992. In addition, Dr. Bolin has publishedmore than 100 papers in his field and continues to play a major role in promoting academic
research. Throughout his career, Dr. Bolin's research and leadership activities have served toshed light on the problem of global warming and to provide suggestions for its solution.

156

EssayWhat
about

We KnowandWhat

We Don't

Human-Induced

ClimateAnd

Be Done?

What

ShouldDr. Bert

Know

ChangeBolin

May 1997

Key findings
We know

•

that:

•

the global mean surface temperature has increased by 0 .3-0.6°C during the 20th century,
the uncertainty primarily being due to the natural variability of climate on time scales fromdecades to a century not being well known;
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (carbon dioxide , methane, nitrous oxide, halo-•

genated hydrocarbons, tropospheric ozone) continue to increase, leading to an enhanced
positive radiative forcing of the climate system;
the enhanced concentrations of tropospheric aerosols primarily resulting from combustion•of fossil fuels and biomass burning cause some negative forcing;
our ability to determine the human influence on the global climate is still limited because•

the expected signal is only now emerging from the noise of natural variability, but the IPCC
has nevertheless concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is now a discernible human influence on climate;"
the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gas forcing is not yet well known; theearlier assessment—that an equilibrium warming of 1.5-4.5°C for a doubling of carbon
dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (or an equivalent increase of a mixture of greenhouse gases)—remains.

(See: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995; IPCC Synthesis Report: An Assessment of
Scientific and Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change; and Policy Makers of Working Groups I, II and III. WMO,
Geneva)Simple climate models, calibrated against complex models, can be used to assess the
expected global temperature change due to the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gasesthat have occurred so far, and in doing so the inertia of the climate system can also be recognized. Accepting the observed increases of greenhouse gas concentrations, the enhanced radiative forcing so far is about 2.7 Wm-2, the central value for the negative aerosol forcing is157

assumed to be -1.1 Wm-2 as given by the IPCC, and spanning the full range of uncertainty of
the climate sensitivity,this yields an expected increase of the global surface mean temperatureof 0.3°-0.7°C. (cf. IPCC TechnicalPaper No. 3. Stabilization of Atmospheric Gases: Physical,
Biological and Socio-Economic Implications. WMO, Geneva (TP 3)). Considering also theuncertainty of the negative aerosol forcing this range becomes about 0.1°-0.9°C, where thelower bound results from the combination of low sensitivity of the climate system to humanforcing and a large influence of aerosols, while the upper bound corresponds to high climate
system sensitivity and small forcing due to aerosols. In light of the observed changes so far,none of these extreme values seem likely, but neither can any be excluded because of theuncertainty of the computations.
It is appropriate in this context to recall the conclusion drawn already in the IPCC First
AssessmentReport that "...the observed increase of global mean temperature could largely be
due to natural variability; alternativelythis variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human induced warming." As a matter of fact using (a) the central values forthe sensitivity of the climate system to radiative disturbances, and (b) the radiative forcing due
to enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, brings the calculated and observedchanges of the global mean surface temperature into reasonable agreement. This must not,however, be viewed as proof of the human influence on global climate but it represents supporting evidence that this might indeed be the case.
Although we now have evidence for human-induced change to the global climate, wecannot yet tell how the occurrence of extreme events, such as storms, floods, and droughts,
might change. This implies also that it is not yet possible to describe the impacts of climatechange either globally or for individual countries, even though we can predict generally thatfloods as well as droughts might become more frequent. An increase of temperature by 2°C
would have a marked influence on the forests—as much as 30% might no longer be well
adjusted to the surrounded abiotic conditions. Finally,the sea level would rise by 15-95 cm if
no mitigation were undertaken, but this would not be the same all around the world.
Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) considers a stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations and thereby also a stabilization of climate as the prime objective, but sets no specific level as a goal. Actually, such a level can hardly be determined accurately until better estimates of the likely damage due to changes of climate become available,
which cannot be expected in the near future. Justificationsfor mitigation efforts must therefore
be based largely on qualitativejudgments. It is not surprising that the views on what should bedone differ.
In view of this situationthe IPCC has asked the question: What emissions scenarios forcarbon dioxide are "permissible"in order not to exceed a set of alternativeconcentrationlevels?
Those chosen are 450, 550, 650, 750, and 1000 ppmv, which should be compared with thepreindustrial concentrationof about 280 ppmv and present concentrations of about 360 ppmv.
Alternativestabilizationpaths and the resulting emissionsprofiles are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
According to the FCCC, it is, however, important not to restrict analysis to the role of158

carbon dioxide; rather, all greenhouse gases should be considered. IPCC Technical Paper III
also included considerations of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur dioxide (which is transformed into sulfate aerosols). Table 1 shows the radiative forcing of the climate system in

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Figure 1. Alternative concentrations scenarios for stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 350, 450, 550,
650, and 750 ppmv.The "old" scenarios imply an immediatechange of the energy supplyinfrastructure.The "new"scenarios,on the other hand, follow the IPCC Scenario IS92a ("Business as Usual") during one or a few decades
in order to permit the change over of the energy supply infrastructure into one that can satisfy the restrictions thatare required in order to reach the prescribed stabilizationlevels.

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159

2i •
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Table 1. Radiative forcing and temperature changes at the time of stabilization for alternative levels of stabilization. It has been assumed that methane,. nitrous oxide and sulfur dioxide will be emitted in according to the IPCC
Scenario IS92a until 2100 and thereafter to remain constant. (See further Table 3 in TP 3.)

Level ofstabilization

Radiative
forcing (Wm-2)(°C)

Temp change
central value
(°C)

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lower bound

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upper bound(°C)

2100 for the different stabilization levels with the further assumption that the emissions ofmethane, nitrous oxide and sulfur , dioxide increase in accordance with the IPCC Scenario
IS92a ("Business as Usual") until 2100 and remain constant thereafter. The changes to theradiative forcing of the climate system due to these human emissions and aerosols so far are
2.3 Wrn-2 and -1.1 Wm-2, respectively. The emissions of sulfur dioxide presumably will
decrease in the process of stabilization, because about 90% of present emissions occur whenburning fossil fuels, an activity that will decline when stabilization is being approached. The
computed temperature changes may therefore be underestimates. It should also be noted thatthe temperature changes as given in Table 1 refer to the time at stabilization, which for higher
levels may be far into the 22nd century.
It should be noted that the European Union has agreed that a future change of the global
mean surface temperature due to human emissions should not exceed 2°C. In order to keep therisk of this happening reasonably low, carbon dioxide concentrations should not exceed about
450 ppmv, which is really quite a difficult task to achieve. It remains to be seen what the negotiations, which are under way in preparation for the third Conference of the Parties to theConvention in Kyoto in December 1997, will lead to.
Some comments are also warranted with regard to the issue of the timing of mitigation
efforts and the relative importance of future measures taken by developed and developing
countries to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The upper curve in
Figure 3 shows total carbon dioxide emissions for the central IPCC Scenario IS92a, and thesimilarly rising curve below gives the part of the emissions due to developing countries. The
areas below these respective curves are proportional to the cumulative emissions and therefore
the area between them shows the cumulative emissions caused by developed countries.
Assuming that only developed countries stabilize or reduce their emissions, the top
curve would be lowered as indicated in the figure. Three cases are shown that embrace all proposals for mitigation efforts so far made by countries for consideration in the ongoing negotiations:160

1. Developed

countries

keep their emissions

constant2.

Developed

countries

reduceemissionsannuallyby 1%

3. Developed

countries

reduceemissionsannually

by 2%

8

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Figure 3. The IPCC Scenario IS92a for total emissions (upper bold line) and emissions from non-Annex 1 countries, i.e. developing countries (the similarly rising curve, thin line). The areas below these two curves are proportional to the cumulative emissions, and therefore the area between them shows the cumulative emissions by developed countries (Annex 1 countries). The three additional bold lines show the total emissions if the developed
countries (a) stabilize their emissions at the 1990 level, (b) reduce them annually by 1%, and (c) by 2% during thenext century. The emissions required to reach stabilization at 450 and 550 ppmv (in accordance with Figure 2) arealso shown (dashed or dash-dotted lines).

It is obvious from this graph that no reasonablefuture reductions by developedcountries
would stabilizeeither global emissions or, hence, the global mean surface temperature. Several
questions arise: How soon is it possible to reach agreements with developing countries thatthey reduce their rate of increasing emissions? When will they be able to rely instead on noncarbon-emittingenergy sources and thus able to reduce their emissions? How can developed
countries assist in this effort?
A simple carbon dioxide model can be employed to deduce the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrationsfor the cases of stabilizing or reducing developed country emissions as
illustratedin Figure 3. Slightly lower concentrationsare obtained than those deduced from the
IS92a scenario. The cumulative total emissions due to fossil fuel burning during the 25 years
1995-2020 according to IS92a are projected to be about 210 Gt, an amount that would be
reducedby about 21,29 and 36 Gt in the three cases referredto above. This is of course in itself

161

important as the beginning of a long-term effort. It is, however, clear that the reduction of therate of increase of atmosphericcarbon dioxide concentrations during this period, 5-9 ppmv, issmall compared with the projected increase according to the IS92a scenario, i.e. 50-55 ppmv.
The induced increase of the global mean temperature during these 25 years due to emissions,according to the IS92a scenario, would actually in any one of the cases shown be reduced byless than 0.1°C, which would not be detectable.
The results described above are a consequence of the inertia of the climate system. They
also show why it is important to analyze extended emissions profiles in order to understand theimplications of different actions. Agreed actions would, however, presumably within only a
few years be replaced by new agreementsin the light of improved knowledge about the climate
issue. In any case, collaboration among all countries will be required to stabilize and thengradually reduce total emissions. How quickly this can,be achieved is a matter of political
judgment which implies weighing risks against costs.
It is of interest to insert into the figure the emission profiles required for stabilization of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at different levels. Alternative pathways towards
stabilization can be chosen (two are shown, i.e. stabilization at 450, and 550 ppmv). It is interesting to note the stage, according to IS92a, when the emissions from developed countries
begin to exceed the total emissions, that lead to stabilization at 450 ppmv, is reached rather
early during next century.On the other hand, higher stabilization levels than 550 ppmv hardly
require early actions.
The range of projected changes of the global mean surface temperature is large, particularly because of the uncertainty of the sensitivity of the climate system to changing greenhouse gas concentrations. The issues of how much and when to mitigate a climate change
therefore need to be considered in terms of weighing the risks for a possible change of climate
against the costs for mitigation. This remains difficult, particularly because of the difficultyof
determining how serious a climate change might be.
Policies and Measures to Stabilize Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
The IPCC has prepared an extensive summary of available technologies, policies and measures
for mitigating climate change (IPCC Technical Paper I. Technologies, Policies and Measures
for Mitigating Climate Change. WMO, Geneva.) It provides an overview and analysis of technologies and measures to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance greenhouse gas sinks under the FCCC.. The paper focuses on technologies and measures for thecountries listed in Annex I of the FCCC (industrialized countries), while noting information
as appropriate for the use by Non-Annex I countries (developing countries). They are examined over three time periods, with a focus on the short term (present to 2010) and the medium
term (2010-2030), but also including discussions on long-term (e.g. 2050) possibilities andopportunities.
The Technical Paper includes discussions of technologies and measures that can be
adopted in three end-use sectors (commercial, residential, and institutional buildings; transportation; and industry); in the energy supply sector; and in the agriculture, forestry, and waste
management sectors. Broader measures affecting national economies are discussed in a final

162

sectionon economic

instruments.

It is important
potentials•

for mitigation,

Technical

efficiency

definedbetweentechnical,

economic

and market

as follows.

by which

it is possible

to reduceby using

technology

or practice

be adopted, without
Economic
potential

considering

its costs

The portion•

the differences

potential

The amount•to recognizeof the technicalefficiency

improvements

barriers.

The achievement

sures to break downMarket potential
The portion

potential

be achievedof the economicgas emissions

in all applications
or practicalenergyit could

technicallyreductions

or energy

in the absenceof market

gas emissions

cost-effectively

potential

in which

or improvefeasibility.

for greenhousethat could

marketgreenhouserequiresadditional

policiesand mea-barriers.

of the economic

potential

efficiency

improvementsthat currently

assuming

no new policies

and measures.

for greenhousegas emission

can be achieved

underexisting

reductions

or energy

marketconditions,

Such distinctions have not always been made, which has led to unrealistic claims withregard to the possibility of quickly achieving substantial reductions of emissions. On the other
hand IPCC Technical Paper No. 1 (TP 1) clearly shows that there are many possibilities to do
gradually what may be required and, to begin with, at modest costs. Analyses are needed toclarify the situation for individual countries, since the opportunities vary considerably.
Examples from TP 1 will illustrate some of the possibilities and opportunities that exist, butclose analyses by countries are recommended, if this has not already been done.

ExamplesResidential, commercial, and institutional buildings sector
Technicaldevelopmentis under way in many countries. It is today possible to constructhouses
that in temperate climates (e.g. in Germany) use exclusively solar energy, photovoltaics anddirect solar heating. This includes the use of, for example, specially designed walls and windows, energy storage through the use of batteries (short-term storage) and hydrogen (seasonal
storage), and the employment of heat exchange systems for ventilation. The technical feasibility has been proven, but costs are as yet excessive.The potential for the future is large.
A lot of specific equipment (e.g. household appliances) that reduce the need for energy
are, however, availablealready today in many cases at competitive costs. The major administrative,institutional, and political issues in implementing market-based programs for residential and commercial building equipment are:• Difficultiesin improving integrated systems• The need for, and shortage of, skilled persons capable of diagnosing and rectifying systems
problems• The fact that energy users are often not those responsible for paying energy bills, creating

163

•

a barrier to increased efficiency
The need to structure incentives so that intervention in buildings aims at achieving all cost-••effective energy efficiency measures
The need to create institutional structures for market-based programs to work effectively
Perception (or reality) of cross substitutes and related unfairness of expenditures .

Transport Sector
About 20% of today's emissions of carbon dioxide comes from the transport sector, and its relative contributionis expected to increase in the future, particularly from aviation. It may double within 25 years and triple by the middle of next century.
It is technically feasible to reduce the gasoline consumption substantially already today.
Rapid changes are difficult to achieve because of the infrastructure that has 'developedduring
the 20th century. There are, however, several social and environmental costs associated withroad transport at local, regional, and global levels that can be addressed simultaneously.Market
instruments such as road-use charges can be used to reflect many of these costs, especiallythose at the local and regional levels. These instruments can also contribute to greenhouse gas
mitigation by reducing traffic. Fuel taxes are an economically efficient means of greenhousegas mitigation, but may be less efficient for addressing local objectives.
Changes in urban and transport infrastructure, to reduce the need for motorized transport and shift demand to less energy-intensivetransport modes, may be the most importantelements of a long-term strategy for greenhouse gas mitigation in the transport sector.
Industrial Sector
During the past two decades, the industrial sector fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions of mostdeveloped countries have declined or remained constant as their economies have grown. Still,
the present emissions from this sector contribute almost 50% of the total emissions, of which
the industrialized countries are responsible for about three quarters. It is estimated that thesecountries could still lower their industrial sector emissions by 25 % relative to 1990 levels, by
simply replacing existing facilities and processes with the most advanced technologicaloptions currently available (assuming a constant structure for the industrial sector). If such
upgrading occurred at the time of normal capital stock turnover it would in most cases be costeffective.
Energy Supply Sector
Energy consumed in 1990 resulted in the release of 6 Gt C (in 1995 6.3 Gt C). About 72% of
this energy was delivered to end users, accounting for 3.7 Gt C, the remaining was used inenergy conversion and distribution. It is technically possible to realize deep emissions reductions in the energy supply sector in step with the normal timing of investments to replace infrastructure and equipment as it wears out or becomes obsolete.
The efficiency of electricity production can be increased from the present world average of about 30% to more than 60% sometime between 2020 and 2050. Presently the best
available coal and natural gas plants have efficiencies of about 45% and 52%, respectively.

164

While the costs associated with these efficiencies will be influenced by numerous factors, there
are advanced technologies that are cost-effective, comparable with some existing plant andequipment. The combination of electricity generation with the utilization of the waste heat for
local (or regional) supply of heat for the residential/commercial/institutional sector provide
many opportunities for saving energy, particularly in temperate and cold climates.
Historically, the energy intensity of the world economy has improved, on average, by
1% per year, largely due to technology performance improvements that accompany the natural
replacement of depreciated capital stock. Improvements beyond this rate are unlikely to occur
in the absence of specific measures.
Agricultural

SectorAgriculture

accounts

the emissions
dioxidefor aboutof methane

emissionscome

20% of the anthropogenic

and nitrous
fromoxide,

agriculture.

greenhousebut only about
Considerable

effect, primarily

5% of the anthropogenic

reductionsof greenhousesions from the agricultural

sectorcan be accomplished,primarily

ductionunder

cultivation.

of anthropogenic

on land currently

is primarily
slowly.

an issuefor developing

The need for systems

greenhousegas emissions

countries.

analysesfrom

Reduction

It is still relatively

by country

the agriculturalfor determination
sector

from

small

offsets

due tocarbongas emis-by biofuel

methaneand is increasingof possible

pro-

production

reductions

only
of

is apparent.

Forestry Sector
High- and mid-latitude forests are currently estimated to be a net carbon sink of about 0.7 ±0.2
Gt C/year. Low-latitude forests, on the other hand are estimated to be a net source of 1.6 ±0.4
Gt C/year, caused mostly by clearing and degradation of forests. These sources and sinks may
be compared with the carbon release from fossil fuel combustion, estimated to have been 6 Gt
C/year in 1990. It is to be noted, however, that emissions due to fossil fuel burning represent
injection of carbon that has been buried in the ground for millions of years, while increases anddecreases of carbon in forests should be viewed as redistributions of carbon between terrestrial
reservoirs, which will necessarily remain rather limited in a long-term perspective, because of
the comparatively limited amounts that they contain. Still, it is obviously important to halt
deforestation. Governments in a few developing countries, such as Brazil and India, have instituted measures to achieve this.
Wood residues are used regularly to generate steam and/or electricity in most paper
mills and rubber plantations, and in specific instances for utility electricity generation.
Solid Waste and Wastewater Disposal
An estimated 50-80 Mt CH4 was emitted by solid waste disposal facilities and waste water
treatment facilities in 1990. Although there are large uncertainties in such emissions estimates
for a variety of reasons, overall emissions levels are projected to grow significantly in the
future.
Technical options to reduce CH4 emissions are available and, in many cases, may be
profitably implemented by paper recycling, composting, and incineration and also through165

CH4 recovery from landfills and waste water, which in turn may be used as an energy source.
This might be cost-competitive with other energy alternatives.
These few examples from different sectors of society should only be viewed as examples, since there are major differences between countries, the analysis of which requires special efforts.
Concluding remarks
Neither the climate system nor the world socio-economic system will be changing rapidly
because of their great inertia. The oceans are the prime factor that slows down the response of
the climate system, while the reluctant response by people—not the least in the political system—as well as the slow turnover of capital invested in the major infrastructures of a modern
society, imply that mitigation will come about neither easily nor rapidly. Both these factors
should be considered seriously when setting new goals for the FCCC to be realized in the 21st
century.

166

Lecture

Biogeochemical

CyclesandDr. Bert

Bolin

ClimateChangeIt is a great joy for me to be here and give this lecture on the very memorable occasion of having received the Blue Planet Prize of 1995. I will, however, change slightly what I originally
thought I would present to you. Facts will not change, nor knowledge as presented. They arebasic ingredients of my talk. But it is so important for science to express its findings in terms
that are useful to society and therefore helpful for possible action. Having listened to Mr.
Strong for a couple of hours, I find it even more important to see how we should best present
the scientific issues to serve properly in this regard. It cannot be overemphasized that sciencehas this responsibility and maybe does not always fulfill it adequately. Much of what we as scientists are saying is not easily understood. I hope indeed that I will be understood.
The world has existed for a long, long time—thousands of millions of years. What we
see around us today has gradually evolved during this period, and we, as human beings, arepart of it and we indeed wish, of course, to remain as part of it. We must therefore not do things
that jeopardize our own existence—for example, change our environment excessively.
Life is dependent upon the availability of a rather few basic elements that were present
already when the Earth was created. It is not surprising that the most important element is carbon. All organic matter is built around the carbon atom. But a number of other constituents arealso important, e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. We sometimes, however, consider themas pollution in the environment. They may appear as pollution because of their enhanced concentrations that are the result of the increasing number of people on Earth whereby more ofthese nutrients are being brought into circulation. Sustainable development for us as humanbeings means that we accept the requirement not to change the environment unduly and torespect the living part of our environment, the biosphere.
Satellites have given us a bird's-eye view of the Earth. Figure 1 is based on measurements from space and shows photosynthetic activity on Earth. The colors range from brown,which implies no photosynthesis, to green to white to purple, which show areas with maximum
photosynthesis. Figure 1 displays conditions during August and February, i.e., during summer
and winter as they alternate between the two hemispheres. During summer in the Northern
Hemisphere, life is at full swing up to high latitudes but .is slowed down in the Southern
Hemisphere. On the other hand, in the Northern Hemisphere during winter the situation isreversed. The Sahara, as might be expected, is constantly characterized by very little plant
growth. In contrast, the rain forests in the tropics show very high rates the year round; there,
life is abundant.
These realities of today must not change too much in the future. They are indeed basic
for life on Earth. Photosynthesis provides the energy we need and energy is required for a sustainable future for the human race and its society. We also know a lot about life on Earth in the167past because the circulation of the fundamental elements of life has varied and these changes
can be seen in remnants of life as found in lake and sea sediments, in the soils, and in ice aspreserved in the major ice sheets. From these findings we can also deduce past climatic conditions because there is such a close relationship between climate and life.
Figure 2 shows what can be deduced from ice cores that have been extracted down to adepth of several kilometers from both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Measurementsof the abundance of the oxygen isotope 180 tell us about temperature variations during the past
220,000 years. The last ice age shows up very clearly with temperatures more than 10 degrees
below present temperatures. The last interglacial epoch, about 120,000 years ago, was somewhat warmer even than the present one, which by now has lasted for about 10,000 years. The
human civilization has developed during this geologically short period of time.
Methane in the atmosphere has also varied markedly (see Figure 2). We know this from
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Figure 2. Variations of temperature, carbon dioxide, and methane during the past 220,000 years as deduced fromanalyses of glacier ice and air bubbles enclosed in the ice from an ice core record at Vostok in Antarctica (IPCC
Special Report, 1994).

168

08

analyses of air buried in the form of small bubbles in the ice from Greenland and Antarctica.
Records from approximately the past 220,000 years are available . The preindustrial concentration was about 0.7 ppmv (parts per million) and also about the same during the previous
interglacial epoch. During the glacial period, on the other hand , it dropped to about half that.
Methane is produced during the decomposition of organic matter and is therefore also an
expression for the intensity of life on Earth. Apparently life was less active during glacial
times, which is not surprising. The ice cores now also provide for a quantitative measure .
Methane concentrations are at present about 1.7 ppmv, i.e ., more than twice the undisturbed
interglacial concentrations. This enhanced concentration is brought about by the expansion ofrice cultivation and increasing numbers of cattle to provide food for humankind , but it is also
due to leakage when exploiting coal, oil, and natural gas as sources of energy .
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere shows similar major variations during the last glacial
and interglacial epochs. It dropped to about 200 ppmv during the long glacial period as compared with about 280 ppmv before industrialization began early last century. A close interrelation between atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane on the one hand andlife on the other is obvious.
Figure 3 shows the steady increase of carbon dioxide , from 280 ppmv about 200 years
ago to about 360 ppmv at present--an increase of almost 30% . About 80% of this increase isowing to manmade emissions of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels and about 20% owing
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Figure 3. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, 900-1958, deduced from analyses of the composition of air in bubbles from glacier ice and since 1957 from direct measurements in the atmosphere . D57, D47, Siple, and South Poleshow data from four different ice cores in Antarctica. Inserted, annual emissions of carbon in the form of carbon
dioxide are also given (IPCC Special Report, 1994).

169

to deforestation and changing land use. Thus, there is less carbon in living plants on Earth andin cultivated soils today than a few hundred years ago. We think it is profitable to plow ourfields, but we decrease their content of organic matter, which may not be sustainable from along-term perspective.
Another graph, Figure 4, shows the changes of nitrous oxide. Its presence in the atmosphere is also related to decomposition processes. Figure 4 shows changes during approximately the past 2,000 years, also derived from analyses of air bubbles in ice from Greenlandand Antarctica. A marked increase during the past few hundred years can be seen. We can thus
see in the measurements from Antarctica the effects of 1,500 million cows and other animals
kept for husbandry, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere.
As a matter of fact, we are today changing the composition of the atmosphere in many
ways. We therefore urgently need to understand what is at stake and which parts of the biosphere take part in this process. We need to understand how the biogeochemical cycles function
and how they interact in the processes of photosynthesis and plant growth. The key is of course
the carbon cycle, but its interactions with and dependence on the cycles of the other elements
must not be forgotten. They are indeed also part of the story.
We find carbon in the atmosphere, in living plants on land, as dead organic matter in thesoils, in the oceans (both dissolved as inorganic carbon and as plants and animals, as well as
dissolved organic carbon), and as deposits in the sediments at the bottom of the oceans (seeFigure 5). There is about 50 times more carbon in the ocean's waters than there is in the air ascarbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide stays on average about four years in the atmosphere before it
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4. Nitrous oxide concentrations in the atmosphere measured in samples from ice cores (IPCC, 1990).

Figure 1. Rate of photosynthesis as deduced from satellite measurements (AVHRR) for August 1982 andFebruary 1983 (Tucker et al., 1986).

171

Figure 7. Global distribution of radiative forcing (Wm-2), including theeffects of enhanced concentrations ofboth greenhouse gases and aerosols(Kiehl and Briegleb, 1993).

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172

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either enters the oceans or is assimilated by plants on land. In a natural equilibrium, about thesame amounts are returned to the atmosphere and a balance is maintained. Because of its size
and the fact that the sea is not well mixed, carbon stays in the oceans for centuries to millennia. Human emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere are now disturbing this naturalbalance because we are burning carbon that was accumulated in the Earth's crust during hundreds of millions of years and is now being extracted. It is being and possibly will be released
in increasing amounts in a matter of perhaps a few centuries. This represents a major disturbance of the carbon cycle. What will it mean in a longer perspective?
It is well known that many plants grow better if the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is enhanced, but only if there are enough water and nutrients. It is therefore reasonable to expect that the global rate of photosynthesis will increase, but it is difficult to tell by
how much. The rate of decomposition may, however, also change in response to an increased
rate of primary production and higher temperature. The total enhancement of the carbon reservoirs in the form of plants and dead organic matter in the soil is also limited. Eventually, mostof the carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels will therefore end up in the oceans. We will thus
also gradually change the composition of the sea. We will increase its acidity because the dissolution of carbon dioxide means the formation of carbonic acid. This is, however, a slow

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173

process and has as yet hardly influenced
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given (IPCC Working Group I, 1996).

174

and Southeast Asia. It is only because of the lull in the expansion of industrial activities in former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries, in turn owing to a process of major economic restructuring, that the global emissions are temporarily not increasing at present .
Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, as well as some other gases thathumankind is emitting into the atmosphere, are so-called greenhouse gases , which change theradioactive balance of the Earth with space . Figure 6 shows that this change is equivalent atpresent to an additional radiative forcing of the Earth's system by about 2.5 Wm 2. This is justabout 1% of the total solar forcing, but, on the other hand, about 100 times larger than the present rate of energy use by humankind. It means that the atmosphere in equilibrium might
become or may already have become somewhat warmer than it was during the undisturbed
conditions that preceded the industrial revolution .
Other things, however, have happened simultaneously . The increasing concentrations of
halocarbons in the atmosphere reduce the amount of ozone in the stratosphere , which in turntends to cool the Earth's surface. Humankind also emits particulate matter . When we burn oiland coal, the sulfur in these fuels is also burned and sulfate aerosols are formed . Similarly, biomass burning in the tropics causes emissions of large amounts of particles . They settle to the
Earth's surface or are washed out by precipitation within a week or two , but the emissions arebeing maintained constantly and therefore so also is an enhanced atmospheric concentration .
These aerosols tend to scatter the sun's rays and in this way counteract the greenhouse gas
warming. It has been estimated that the warming due to the greenhouse gases being emitted byhumans and reinforced by an expected enhancement of the amounts of water vapor in theatmosphere may be reduced by 20-40% by the scattering of solar radiation that the aerosols
bring about (see Figure 6). It is important to emphasize, however , that the aerosols are not as
evenly distributed over the Earth as are the greenhouse gases and their scattering is therefore
not a simple offset of the global mean warming due to enhanced concentrations of greenhousegases.
There is an additional complication. Soot is also emitted by burning organic matter . Sootis elemental carbon, which absorbs solar radiation very effectively . The present view is, however, that the amounts of soot are insufficient to play a significant role in the radiative balanceof the Earth, but measurements are still too few to permit a firm conclusion .
An assessment of the radiative forcing that might be caused by enhanced concentrationsof greenhouse gases in the atmosphere does not directly tell us how much the climate of the
Earth might change. There are many processes that interact in the creation of the present-day
climate. Elaborate models of the climate system are needed in order to interpret the changesof atmospheric composition in terms of a climate change. Even though these models are stillrather simple, they give a rough idea about the climate changes to be expected for a givenchange of the radiative forcing that humankind's interventions bring about . Some of the mostvaluable analyses are due to Dr. S . Manabe, the first laureate of the Blue Planet Prize in 1992 .
When embarking on a discussion of this field of scientific endeavor I also leave my own fieldof expertise and will rather rely on results as achieved by researchers such as Dr . Manabe andabove all on the broad assessments of our present knowledge that has been carried out by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , which I have led since 1988.

175

Climate models are firstused to deduce the present climate due to forcing by solar radiation and an atmosphere with preindustrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
A reasonable agreement between model results and observations is obtained (the "controlrun"). Then another experiment is conducted in which changes of the radiative forcing that
result from changing concentrations due to humankind's emissions during the past 200 years.
The climate system is thus subject to a changing radiative forcing, and the change of the climate brought about in this way can be computed. Figure 7 is an example of the global distribution of the enhanced forcing that has been deduced for 1990 (Kiehl and Briegleb, 1993). We
can see the rather uniform forcing between about 1.5 Wm-2 (in polar regions) and 2.5 Wm-2
(in tropical regions) due to greenhouse gases, on which the spatially very inhomogeneous negative forcing that aerosolsbring about is superimposed.In small areas over central Europe andthe eastern United States, the total forcing is negative, i.e., the aerosols more than compensate
for the warming due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.
Figure 8 shows the changes of the global mean surfacetemperature as derivedboth withand without forcing due to aerosols and also, for comparison, observed changes until 1994
(Hadley Centre, 1995). Until about 1950 there are irregular changes of a similar kind in both,as deduced by model experiments and those observed. The observed irregular changes during
this period of time are thereforenot likely to be due to humankind's emissions. During the latter part of the century, however, all three curves bend upwards. Good agreement between
observations and the model experiments is found when the effects of aerosols are included, but
this may be fortuitous, since the sensitivity of the model to a given forcing still is quite uncertain. Although the model results and observations agree, this finding is hardly a proof of thequality of the model. It has recently, however, also been found that some of the more detailed
featuresof model results and observationsare in accord: warming is essentially restricted to thetroposphere,while the stratosphere cools. It is more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere,
where there is no enhanced cooling due to aerosols. The regional patterns of change show
some similarities, particularly with regard to the effects of the rather patchy forcing due to theinhomogeneous distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere. This has led the IPCC to the conclusion that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on
global climate." Humankind does play a role in changing the global climate. The sensitivity of
the climate to human interventions is, however, still not well determined.
These findings mean that the climate models may be considered to be somewhat morereliable than was the view a year or two ago. This means that their use in projecting plausible
scenarios for the future also has become more reliable. We do encounter another difficulty,
however.Projections of likely future human emissions are most uncertain.The IPCC therefore
commonly presents alternative projections of such emissions and emphasizes that we as yet
cannot tell whether one or the other of such projections is the most plausible one. A numberof experimentshave been carried out using a "central" projection of emissions, which need not
be the most likely one to occur, but still gives an idea about what might happen. Figure 8(Hadley Centre, 1995) includes projections for approximately the next 50 years. The uncertainty of it is, however, at least ±50% owing to the uncertainty of both projections of future
emissions and sensitivity of the climate system to disturbances in the radiative forcing.

176

Presumably the curve that includes the consideration of aerosols is the most plausible one, but
it is still uncertain. It is important to stress that uncertainty means that high projections should
be considered to be as plausible as low ones, until we know more accuratelythe reasons for theremaining uncertainties.
Figure 9 shows the projected global distributionof surfacetemperature change at about
the middle of the next century.It shouldbe recalledthat regional changes in differentareas may
differ significantlyfrom the mean global change and are also subject to stochastic variations
that cannot be foreseen. We note, for example, that although a significant change of the global
temperature is projected, the spatial distribution shows two regions in the world , one in the
North Atlantic and the other one in the North Pacific, that do not experience any warming at
all. It is thus important to recognize that spatial variations of the expected changes of climate
may well be considerable. This should be considered statistically when assessing impacts ofclimate change.
A change of climate does not, of course, mean only a change of temperature .
Availabilityof water or, in other words, precipitation and evaporation,may also change what
is most important for life on Earth. Generally, the warmer it gets, the more water is being circulated between the oceans, the land, and the atmosphere. But more water is also required to
avoid droughts. Since it is by no means certain that the regional distributionof warming will
mean a similar increase of precipitation, the prospects for agriculture in a warmer world maychange significantlyin some regions but less so elsewhere.We cannot foreseethe changes very
well, and a precautionary approach to climate change therefore becomes the most appropriate.
What should and what can be done? Obviously all greenhouse gases as well as theaerosols play a role, but it is also very clear that carbon dioxide is the most important constituent to consider. We can of course not rely on the cooling effects of enhanced concentrations of aerosols to prevent climate change, since their acidification of precipitation and fresh
waters implies that their unrestricted increase is not acceptable. Carbon dioxide is at present
responsible for about 60% of the enhanced radiative forcing due to increasing amounts ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and it may well grow to 75% or even perhaps 80% if norestrictions on their emissions are imposed. Scientists have tried to derive the "permissible"
emissions, if a condition is imposed that atmospheric concentrations must not exceed a given
level and that thus a stabilization at that level is aimed for.
We do not know which level of stabilizationto be aiming for, however, and the choice
really is a politicalone to be based on careful considerationof costs and benefits of various mitigation options, not by considering the matter exclusively in terms of money. A set of alternative stabilizationpaths therefore has been chosen to achieve stable concentrations at 450 , 550(close to doubling of preindustrial concentrations),650, 750, and 1,000ppmv (see Figure 10).
The highest level is not far from quadrupling preindustrial concentrations and would represent
a major disturbanceof the heat balance of the Earth, i.e., by 6-8 Wm-2. Few consider that thiswould be acceptable.
Figure 11 shows the outcome of such an analysis. It should be noted that two different
pathways toward a certain level of stabilizationhave been considered in several cases. One cansee clearly that delaying preventive measures and thus permitting emissions to rise more

177

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steeply to begin with will require stricter reductionslater. Also, quite soon, emissions will haveto be considerablybelow what has been projected to occur without restrictions being imposedon the use of fossil fuels in all cases, the more so the lower a level of stabilization is pre750

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178

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scribed. Although this analysis still is somewhat uncertain because of our limited knowledge
about the carbon cycle, it becomes very clear that nature puts some restrictions on how much
we may allow ourselves to disturb the global environment, and we are able to give an approximate indication of what may be required.
To be more specific, consider as an example the stabilization level of 550 ppmv. If emissions are permitted to rise to about 10.5 billion tons of carbon per year, the emissions will haveto be reduced rather quickly thereafter and need to be well below present emissions of about
7 billion tons before the end of the century (also including emissions due to net deforestationand changing land use). A more precautionary approach would lead to maximum emissions of
merely 8-9 billion tons of carbon per year and permit somewhat higher emissions during thelatter part of next century.
Some further insight is gained if, for a moment, we instead consider the emissions per
capita and also take note of the marked prevailing differences between developed and developing countries. The global average annual per capita emissions of carbon dioxide due to the
combustion of fossil fuels is at present about 1.1 tons (as carbon). In addition, a net amount of
about 0.2 ton per capita is emitted owing to deforestation and changing land use, i.e., in total
about 1.3 tons per capita. The average fossil fuel emissions per capita in developed and transitional economy countries is about 2.8 tons, and emissions range from about 1.5 to 5.5 tons
for individual countries. The figure for developing countries, on the other hand, is 0.5 ton on
average, ranging from 0.1 ton to, for a few countries, above 2.0 tons (figures are for 1990).
Because of the expected growth of the world population during the first half of the next
century, the emissions as given in Figure 11 imply that per capita emissions must not increase
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Emissions due to net deforestation and changing land use have been included. The uppermost curve is the IPCC
Scenario IS92a ("Business as Usual"). See also IPCC SynthesisReport, 1996.

179

at all if stabilization at or below 550 ppmv is aimed for (see Figure 12). It is likely, however,that developingcountries will considerthemselves entitled to some increase of per capita emissions above their present levels because of the prevailing major differencesbetween developed
and developingcountries that I referredto before. This reinforces the need for developed countries to take early steps to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide, if stabilizationbelow doubling is to be accomplished. But even very drastic reductions in developed countries would not
permit developingcountries to exceed by much the present annual per capita emissions for theworld-1.3 tons, a figure which includes emissions owing to deforestation.
Sustainable development would become easier if more efficient energy use could beachieved in both developing and developed countries. In this way, some more time would
become available for finding long-term solutions, since it is obviously not enough to provide
and use energy more efficiently.We must find other sources for energy besides fossil fuels,
something which cannot be accomplished quickly, since about 80% of the energy used in theworld today comes from burning fossil fuels. To develop the technology, demonstrate its feasibility, and introduce it into the energy market will necessarily take time if the costly early
retirement of capital investments in the existing energy system is to be avoided.
The choices we have are, on one hand, solar energy or other forms of energy derived
from it, particularly bioenergy and hydropower,or on the other hand, nuclear energy.There isplenty of solar energy available, directly in the form of solar radiation and indirectly ashydropower,wind energy, bioenergy,and geothermal energy.We will never run out of it, but
it is not always easy to harness efficientlyand cheaply.The resources of nuclear energy are limited, and for a long-term supply breeder reactors (and in the very long term, fusion reactors)
will in any case be required. Major development projects will be required and funding for
research and developmentmust increase substantially rather than decrease, as is presently thecase. Developed countries must take the lead also in this regard, and it is doubtful that private
initiatives will be adequate until the prospects for new markets become much more obvious.
Only the governmentsof the world can provide the incentives to achieve this by agreeing thatnew energy systems will be required in the future.
The previous analysis is important because some semiquantitative bounds are established for future development, but it should be emphasized that they are still only indicative.
Merely carbon dioxide was considered. We should also recall that whenever burning coal andoil, sulfur is emitted into the atmospherein the form of sulfur dioxide.It ameliorates the warming due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.Emissions of sulfur, however, contributein a major way to the acidificationof fresh waters and soils as well as to air pollution in industrialized regions. Some developing countries are at present trying to cope with these environmental issues by decreasing such emissions, and many more will have to do so rather soon.
Their elimination would obviously imply that the greenhouse gas warming would be more
fully realized. Similarly,the gradual decrease of CFC gases, which is expected at about the
beginning of the next century as a result of human efforts to prevent the destruction of theozone layer, would also decrease greenhouse warming. On the other hand, stratospheric ozone
concentrations would then be restored and also the full effect of ozone as a greenhouse gas.
These examples, and there are more of them, illustrate that the global environmental issues are

180all more or less interrelated. The global system needs to be considered as a whole.
The difficulty is, of course, that only a small part of the global population and politiciansof the world as yet really consider these environmental issues as sufficiently serious to justify
more concerted action. It is then interesting to dwell for a moment on the ozone issue, which
was dealt with remarkably quickly once it had been established and generally accepted thathumankind's emission of CFC gases was the cause of the development of the "ozone hole"over Antarctica. The warnings of possible serious modifications of the ozone layer due to ouremissions of CFC gases had been voiced already during the early 1970s. Almost 10 years ofnegotiations finally led to an agreement on a convention for the protection of the ozone layer
in 1985. However, it did not really contain any specific restrictions on the use of CFC gases.
But when the ozone hole was discovered in 1985, it took only about 18 months to reach an
agreement on rather powerful measures, known as the Montreal Protocol. These were madeeven more stringent by international agreements reached in 1990 and 1993. The measures thatentered into force at the beginning of 1996 will presumably stabilize the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds at about the turn of the century.
The climate change issue is, however, a much more difficult one. Its possible consequences, as well as measures to prevent a change of climate, affect the global society as awhole. The CFC gases were produced by merely a handful of companies and their use was limited to rather few products on the market. The emissions of carbon dioxide and the use ofenergy that it signifies really concern almost everybody.
One may of course ask the question if we will one day see climate change become
politically equivalent to the ozone hole. I think, however, that this is a dangerous attitude to theissue. Even though the increased occurrence of extreme events such as severe storms, floods,
and droughts may be the signature of a climate change, it will for some time yet be difficult toascertain whether one or another event of this kind is really due to an ongoing human-inducedchange of the global climate. This constitutes a real dilemma and may delay actions. My simple answer at this moment is that scientists will have to pursue their research but perhaps plan
their theoretical and observational efforts in a manner that is most useful to the politicians andothers who will have to deal with this issue. But, perhaps more droughts, floods, and the likewill be necessary anyway before more far-reaching measures will be taken.
A few additional words about the role of the scientific community in the context of climate change might be of interest. The research process will of course go on and may befinanced more or less adequately. The key questions I want to address, however, are how toassess and synthesize our knowledge, and how might interaction be best organized between
scientists on the one hand and politicians, representatives of industry, the press, and the publicin general on the other.
•

It is first of all important
assessment

to aim at participationby scientistsof the climatechangeissue.

concerning

truly

aspectsof the problem,

althoughincreasing

engaged.

The most efficient

globalnumbers

By far mostof researchers

way of communicatingfromfrom all over the worldof the relevant

is carried

research,in theparticularly

out in developed

countries,

developing

countries

are becoming

new scientificfindings

to a broad

com-

181

•

munity all over the world is through the scientists. Leading politicians, not the least in
developing countries, are likely to take more notice of views held by scientists in their own
country than to accept advice from scientists abroad. A global network of scientists is therefore essential.
The scientific process must be open . The aim is, however, not necessarily to reach agreement on every relevant issue. Scientific controversy is, after all, the basis for scientificprogress. It then becomes essential to clearly bring to the public those issues on which
agreements can be reached, and at the same time describe where the scientific frontier is tobe found and what the controversies are. To achieve this, it is important also to reach out tothe scientific community in a scientific review process so that the core groups that are given
the responsibility to carry out scientific assessments cannot be accused of not being fair andobjective in carrying out their tasks. Even though there are some that are not satisfied withthe way the IPCC has been carrying out this task, there is in reality a broad backing of IPCC
views from the scientific community. This credibility is essential in order for the assessment
process to be recognized. If there were some other group of scientists that in a credible, scientific manner could maintain a different view on the issue of climate change, the world
would of course be bewildered and it would be difficult to achieve anything politically.

Future actions to address the issue of climate change cannot be successfully initiatedunless cooperation within the business community,i.e., the industrial complex, is established.
Some kind of partnership is desirable. I would like to see leading representatives from thesecommunities present their views on how to best approach these environmental issues on thebasis of the IPCC assessment of technological and financial implications. What would theirdifficulties and priorities be? The IPCC would welcome such cooperative efforts.
Social considerations also become very important when attempting to assess damage
due to a climate change as well as judge the implications of measures to be taken. The IPCC
addresses these issues in its most recent assessment. It is clear that the economic evaluations
usually do not yet adequately include social aspects of the issues at stake. Rather, exclusively
economic analyses dominate. And yet we know that major changes in social systems mightwell be necessary in order to deal with climate change. And also, we see daily around us how
easily crises develop when stress on people or groups of people, i.e., countries, cannot be managed peacefully. Not only is the climate system complex and in a sense chaotic, but so is society. Presently available socioeconomic models then usually break down and science then ishardly any longer the key to finding solutions. Perhaps it will be possible to judge on the basisof further research when such situations may be on the way. A dialogue between the scientificcommunity and the political community is in any case a prerequisite for making use of what
scientificresearch can possibly achieve. This is not really well developed yet, but perhaps on
the way.
References
Hadley Centre (1995). Modelling Climate Change, 1860-2050. Department of the Environment, the Met Office,UK.
IPCC (1990). Assessments: Climate Change 1990.

182

I
Working Group I, The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press.
II Working Group II, The IPCC Impact Assessment, Canberra: Australian Government Printing Service.
III Working Group III, The IPCC Response Strategies, Geneva: WMO/UNEP.
IPCC Scientific Assessment (1992). I, Working Group I, Chapters 1-5; III, Working Group III, Chapter 6,
Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (1996). Climate Change 1995. IPCC Second Assessment Report.
Synthesis Report. An Assessment of Scientific Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Geneva: WMO (to be published).
Working Group I. The Science of Climate Change.
Working Group II. Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Options.
Working Group III. Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change.
Kiehl, J.T. and Brieleb, P. (1993). "The Relative Roles of Sulfate Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases in Climate
Forcing." Science, 260,16 April, 311-314.
Tucker, C.J., Fung, I.Y., Keeling, C.D., and Gammon, R.H. (1986). "The Relationship of Global Green Leaf
Biomass to Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations." Nature.

183

Major Publications
Dr. Bert

Bolin

ArticlesBerggren, R., B. Bolin and C. Rossby. "An Aerological Study of Zonal Motion, Its
Perturbations and Break-down." Tellus, 1 (1949),14-37.
Bolin, B., and J. Charney. "Numerical Tendency Computations from the Barotropic Vorticity
Equation." Tellus,3 (1951), 248-257.
Bolin, B. "The Adjustment of a Non-Balanced Velocity Field Towards Geostrophic
Equilibrium in a StratifiedFluid." Tellus,5 (1953), 373-385.
— . "Numerical Forecasting with the Barotropic Model." Tellus,7 (1955), 27-49.
— . "An Improved Barotropic Model and Some Aspects of Using the Balance Equation for
Three-Dimensional Flow." Tellus,8 (1956), 61-75.
Bolin, B. and E. Eriksson. "Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere and
Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion." In The Atmosphereand the Sea in Motion. A scientific contribution to the Rossby Memorial Volume edited by B. Bolin. New York,
Rockefeller Institute Press, 1959,130-142.
Bolin, B. "On the Use of Tritium as a Tracer for Waterin Nature." In Second UNInternational
Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, Geneva (1958), Session D-19, 176,
336-343.
— . "On the Exchange of Carbon Dioxide Between the Atmosphere and the Sea". Tellus 12,274-281.
Bolin, B. and H. Stommel. "On the Abyssal Circulation of the World Ocean, IV. Origin andRate of Circulation of Deep Ocean Water as Determinedwith the Aid of Tracers."Deep Sea
Research, 8 (1961), 95-110.
Bolin, B. Transfer and Circulation of Radioactivity in the Atmosphere. Nuclear Radiation inGeophysics,edited by H. Israel and A. Krebs. Springer-Verlag, 1962,136-168.
Bolin, B. and C.D. Keeling. "Large-Scale AtmosphericMixing as Deduced from the Seasonaland Meridional Variations of Carbon Dioxide." Journal of Geophysical Research, 68(1963), 3899-3920.
Keeling, C.D. and B. Bolin. "The Simultaneous Use of Chemical Tracers in Oceanic Studies
I. General Theory of ReservoirModels." Tellus, 19 (1967), 566-581.
Keeling, C.D. and B. Bolin. "The Simultaneous Use of Chemical Tracers in Oceanic Studies
II. A Three-Reservoir Model of the North and South Pacific Oceans." Tellus, 20 (1968),
17-54.
Bolin, B. and W. Bischof. "Variationsof the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere in the
Northern Hemisphere." Tellus,22 (1970), 431-442.
Multiple Authorship. "Sweden's Case Study. Air Pollution Across National Boundaries: The
Impact of Sulfur in Air and Precipitations. Sweden's Case Study for the UN Conferenceon
the Human Environment." Stockholm, The Royal Ministry for Foreign Affairs and theRoyal Ministry of Agriculture, 1971,96.

184

Bolin, B. "Atmospheric Chemistry and Environmental Pollution." In Meteorological
Challenges: a History, edited by D. P. McIntyre. 1972,237-266.
Bolin, B., and H. Rodhe. "A Note on the Concepts of Age Distribution and Transit Time in
Natural Reservoirs." Tellus,25 (1973), 58-62.
Bolin, B. and C. Persson. "Regional Dispersion and Deposition of Atmospheric Pollutants
with Particular Application to Sulfur Pollution over Western Europe." Tellus, 27 (1975),
281-310.
Bolin, B. "A Critical Appraisal of Models for the Carbon Cycle." In The Physical Basis of
Climate and Climate Modeling. Report of the International Study Conference inStockholm July–August 10,1974. Appendix 8, WMO/GARP Publication series No.16,
225-235.
Bolin, B. and R.J. Charlson. "On the Role of the Tropospheric Sulfur Cycle in the Short-Wave
Radiative Climate of the Earth." Ambio, 5 (1976), 47-54.
Bolin, B. "Changes of Land Biota and Their Importance for the Carbon Cycle." Science, 196(1977), 613-615.
—. "Modeling the Oceans and Ocean Sediment and their Response to Fossil Fuel Carbon
Dioxide Emissions." In The Fate of Fossil Fuel CO2 in the Oceans, edited by N.R.
Andersen and A. Malahof. New York: Plenum Press, 1977,81-95.
Bolin, B., E.T. Degens, P. Duvigneaud and S. Kempe. "The Global Biogeochemical Carbon
Cycle." In The Global Carbon Cycle, edited by B. Bolin, E.T. Degens, S. Kempe and P.
Ketnner. SCOPE 13 . Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1979,1-56.
Bolin, B. "Climatic Changes and Their Effects on the Biosphere."Fourth IMO Lecture 1979.
Geneva: WMO No.542, 49.
Bolin, B., A. Bjorkstrom, C.D. Keeling, R. Bacastow and U. Steigenthaler. SCOPE 16:
Carbon Cycle Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1981,1-28.
Bolin, B. "Changing Global Biochemistry."In Oceanography. ThePresent and Future, editedby P.G. Brewer.New York: Springer-Verlag,1983,305-326.
Bolin, B., A. Bjorkstrom, K. Holm 0 and B. Moore. "The Simultaneous Use of Tracers for
Ocean Circulation Studies." Tellus, 35B (1983), 206-236.
Bolin, B., P.J. Crutzen, P.M. Vitousek, R.G.. Woodmansee, D.E. Goldberg and R.B. Cook.
"Interactions of Biogeochemical Cycles." In The Major Biogeochemical Cyclesand theirInteractions, edited by B. Bolin and R.B. Cook, SCOPE 21. Chichester: John Wiley &Sons, 1983,1-39
Bolin, B. "Biogeochemical Processes and Climate Modeling." In The Global Climate, edited
by J.T. Houghton. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984,213-223.
Bolin, B. "How Much CO2 Will Remain in the Atmosphere? The Carbon Cycle andProjections for the Future." In The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems,
edited by B. Bolin, B.R. Doos, J. Jager and R.A. Warrick. SCOPE 29 . Chichester: John
Wiley & Sons, 1986,93-155.
Bolin, B., J. Jager and B.R. Doos and R.A. Warrick (Eds). "The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic
Change, and Ecosystems. A Synthesis of Present Knowledge."In The Greenhouse Effect,
Climatic Change, and Ecosystems, edited by B. Bolin, B.R. Doos, J. Jager and R.A.

185

Warrick. SCOPE 29 . Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1986,1-32.
Bolin, B., A. Bjorkstrom, and B. Moore. "Uptake by the Atlantic Ocean of Excess, Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Radiocarbon." In Contribution of Geophysics to Climate
Change Studies, edited by A. Berger, R. Dickinson and J. Kidson. Proceedings of IUGG
Symposium, Vancouver. Washington: IUGG/AGU, 1989,57-78.
Moore, B., B. Bolin, A. Bjorkstrom, K. Holm() and C. Ringo. "Ocean Carbon Models andInverse Methods." In Oceanic Circulation Models: Combining Data and Dynamics, edited
by D.L.T Anderson and J. Willebrand. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1989,
409-449.
OthersSCOPE Reports, ICSU Science Committee on Problems of the Environment.
Bolin, B., E.T. Degens, S. Kempe; P. Ketner (Eds). "The Global Carbon Cycle", 13 (1979).
Bolin, B., "Carbon Cycle Modeling", 16 (1981).

186

Profile

Maurice
Chairmanof the Earth

F. Strong

Council

Professional Activities
1966-70 Left the private sector to head Canada's International Development Assistance
Program and subsequently guided its growth into the Canadian International
Development Agency
1969
Served as visiting professor at York University, Toronto
1970-72 Served as secretary-general of the UN Conference on the Human Environment
1973-75 Served as executive director of UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya
1976-84 Held top positions at major corporations, including president, chairman, and CEO of
Petro-Canada
1985-86 Served as undersecretary-general of the United Nations and executive coordinator of
the UN Office for Emergency Operations in Africa
1986-90 Held the position of chairman at Strovest Holdings, Inc., and served on the boards ofseveral utilities and natural resource related corporations
1990-92 Served as secretary-general of the 1992 UN Conference on Environment andDevelopment (the Earth Summit)
1992-95 Chairman and CEO of Ontario Hydro, North America's largest utility
1995— Appointed senior advisor to the president of the World Bank
1997
Under-Secretary General and Executive Coordinator for United Nations Reform
Maurice

F. Strong

servedas secretary-generalof the UN Conference

on the Human

Environment, the United Nations' first international conference on the environment, which
was held in 1972 in Stockholm. Twenty years later he was again called upon by the United
Nations to organize the 1992 UN Conference
Janeiro. As secretary-generalenvironmental

on the Environmentof both conferences,initiatives, including

and Development

in Rio de

Mr. Strong smoothed the way for important

Agenda 21.

Prior to 1970, Mr. Strong spent many years in the business world and in the Canadian government, and from 1972 to 1992 he served in various capacities at the United Nations. He was also
active as chairman of Canada's government-owned

oil company, Petro-Canada,

director of many utilities and natural resource related corporations

and served as aworldwide. Widely acclaimedin academic circles, Mr. Strong is the recipient of honorary doctorates from 40 universities.
Today, Mr. Strong's
Resources

Institute,

many activities

includeand other nongovernmental

chairing

the Earth Council,

organizations.

the World

He also serves as Under-

Secretary General and Executive Coordinator for United Nations Reform and Senior Advisor
to the President of the World Bank. Thanks to Mr. Strong's untiring efforts, environmental
issues now rank high on political and businessings, Mr. Strong has steadfastly

agendas worldwide.

supported the concept of sustainable

In all his many undertakdevelopment.

187

EssayThe
Takingthe Earth

Rio +5 Forum:
Summitfrom

Maurice

F. Strong

Agendato Action

April 1997
Many dedicated organizations and individuals are committed to the Earth Summit's goal ofsustainable development, including finding innovative ways to reduce pollution and use our
natural resources more wisely. Indeed, some remarkable progress has been made, particularly
at the local level,where much of the basic work in implementingAgenda 21 must be done. But
far too many governments, companies, institutions, communities, and citizens have yet tomake the choices and changes necessary to advance the mutually reinforcing goals of sustainable development. That is why the Rio +5 Campaign was launched and the Rio +5 Forum washeld in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from March 13 to 19, 1997.
Rio +5 was coordinated by the Earth Council in partnership with a broadly representative group of other civil society organizations. The Earth Council is an international nongovernmental organizationestablishedin San Jose, Costa Rica, as a result of the Earth Summit
in 1992.The Earth Councilpromotes and advances the worldwide implementationof the Earth
Summit agreements.We do this by raising public awareness of the issue of sustainable development, facilitating public participation in relevant decision-making processes, and building
needed cooperation between governments and the important representatives of civil society,who must participate directly in all aspects of this effort.
The key goal of Rio +5 was to forge new alliances and set in motion new initiatives tomove the sustainable development pledges of the 1992 Earth Summit "from Agenda to
Action." To that end, the Forum aimed to develop recommendations for regional and global
governance of sustainable development to present to the United Nations Commission on
SustainableDevelopment (UNCSD) in April and to the subsequent Special Session of the UN
General Assembly in June 1997. Rio +5 was specificallydesigned as an opportunity for civilsociety institutions and actors to provide input to the parallel review processes of the UN,
much the same way thousands of nongovernmental organizations participated in the "peoples' summit, the Global Forum, during the United Nations Earth Summit in 1992.
Among others, the Earth Council was joined in this extraordinary endeavor by theWorld Resources Institute, the Women's Environmental and Development Organization, theWorld Conservation Union, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, theInternational Council of Scientific Unions, the Brazilian NGO Forum and the Brazilian
Foundation for Sustainable Development.Members of the National Councils for Sustainable
Development from 66 nations, as well as some 450 representativesfrom business, industry,cit-

188

izen groups, nongovernmental organizations, philanthropies, international financial institutions and United Nations agencies also participated.
All of the organizations that took part in this effort share the fundamental concern that
despite progress in many areas, the world has failed to make sufficient progress towards
achieving the vision of the Earth Summit: an environmentally sustainable and socially equitable global economy. The passage of nearly five years has witnessed a waning in the excitement and momentum initially generated by the Earth Summit. Through the Rio +5 Campaign
and Forum, and in the period immediately following, the Earth Council will reinforce and revitalize commitment to the agreements reached at the Earth Summit as the issues that wereraised in Rio and the challenges it addressed have not diminished.
A particular disappointment since the Earth Summit has been the fact that most of theindustrialized countries will not meet the initial targets set for reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions. And developing countriesthave reason to be especially disappointed that the "newand additional resources" identified at Rio as essential to enable them to make the transition tosustainable development have not been forthcoming. A welcome exception has been Japan, as
the leading provider of Official Development Assistance and the strongest supporter of the
Global Environmental Facility, the only new financing mechanism to emerge from the Earth
Summit. On the whole, despite significant progress in some areas since Rio, the processes ofenvironmental deterioration continue while its underlying causes persist—continued growth in
the human population and in the scale and intensity of human activity.
On the positive side, many developing countries have responded positively to the resultsof the Earth Summit and some, like China, have enacted their own national versions of Agenda
21 despite the fact that the additional international funding they had expected as a result of Rio
has not materialized. Most encouraging is the progress that has been made at the level of business and civil society. Professional societies, notably engineers, architects and educators, havemade a commitment to sustainable development. Some 1,800 cities and towns are developing
their local versions of Agenda 21. Important industrial sectors, including the road transportindustry and the tourism and travel industry, have developed their own Agendas 21. A reconstituted and expanded World Business Council for Sustainable Development with a growing
number of regional and national counterparts, is leading the movement to sustainable development within the business community.
Some 100 National Councils for Sustainable Development, bringing together representatives of both government and civil society, have been established in every region of the world
as primary instruments for implementation of the results of Rio in their own countries. These
National Councils for Sustainable Development were at the core of the Rio +5 process. I am
particularly pleased that Japan has recently taken steps to form its National Council, which participated with some 90 other National Councils in Rio +5. Many of these countries produced
valuable National Reports for the Forum.
The forum also called for establishment of a Global Environmental Organization, building on the foundations of the United Nations Environment Program, with a status and strength
equivalent to that of the major international trade and economic organizations. The first meeting of the Earth Charter Commission also produced a benchmark draft of the Earth Charter,

189

whichit presented

ensuring

its widethroughout
when

at Rio +5 and the participating
dissemination

the world,

it is presented

which

and

promotion

Nationsof the credibility

Today,

the demographic,
dominant.

Althoughat expanding

economic

successful
world'speoplecountries.

economic

it has failed to reduce

est one billion

people.

ized commitment

but as Rio +5 has maderemains

differences

reach.

into practice,particularly
sustainable

Achieving

this vision

operational

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reachedat the Earththat drive unsustainable
to development
to be a panacea

develop-for all of theIt has yet to benefit

the basic needs

nations'requiresformidable

many

politicalof the world's

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Summit—a

Summithas been highly

at the top of mostof Earthto pin-poor-

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10 yearsfrom now,

will requireabove

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place.

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Fortunately,

outlined

a lead inwith an opportunity

for the planet.

or satisfy

a real difference

achievements

the development

practices,

we do not haveare participatoryand governments,and strengthening

institutionalarrangements,

to startin theirfromdesignnongovernmental

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understand-Manyof the best

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citizens,

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and other stakeholders.
In building

well as businessonly throughsustainable

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and government,

unrelenting

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development

21 and the visioning, and commitment.

unions,futureefforts

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the world

civic

activity,

Now we must focus our collective
development

tools,and economica sustainable

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if the agreements

the conventionalor for generating

Althoughagenda,social,dialogueand authority

we were presented

point the obstacles which need to be overcome
are to be fulfilled and extended.

remainandto takein the year 2000.

Five years after Rio, at the Rio +5 Forum,

ment

undertookof consultations

will be the source

to the Unitedorganizations

follow-up

proclaimed

from the groundhave essential

roles

and implementation

and welcomed

the worldup, all sectors

to play

in applyingthat the vision
over—canof civil society,its principles.

of the Earthbe fulfilled.

as
It is

Summit—Lecture

Japan:

Leadinga Sustainable
Mauricethe World toCivilization
F. StrongI think those of you who know me know that the lecture platform is not my natural habitat. I
am a practitioner,an operator, one who tries to translate the guidance that scientific leaders likeDr. Bolin give us into practical measures and actions. And I want again to say what a great privilege it was yesterday to receive the honor of the Asahi Glass Foundation's Blue Planet Prize .
I also have to say that this is a very auspicious place to be delivering these lectures, considering my lifetime of association with the UN and, indeed, a long association with the UN
University,and a great friendship with Rector de Souza.'
I am also particularlydelighted to return to the land of the rising sun. Since my very first
visit here more than 40 years ago, I have developed a strong affinity for this precious and distinctive land, and an immense admiration and affection for its exceptional people . During myfirst visit here, which was very much in the rural parts of Japan, I was deeply impressed by the
dedication, the resourcefulness,and the resilience of the Japanese in rebuilding their war-shattered society.I've spent a great deal of my time over the years in rural Japan, and I've come toappreciate that much of the strength and the character of the Japanese people, and the distinctiveness of Japan's culture and value system, is rooted in the lives of its farmers and villagers,in the spirit of musubi.
One of the first things that I came to admire about Japan was not its great economic
growth, but the respect of the Japanese people for nature and the profound degree to which thisis reflected in Japanese art, poetry, and culture. While this reverencefor nature, it must be said,
has to some degree been subordinated to Japan's commitment to economic growth in the postWorld War II period, it nevertheless remains at the core of Japanese traditional culture andvalue systems. And I'm encouraged by the signs I see today of revitalization of Japan's deep
affinity with nature, and the fact that the current generation of Japanese young people in fact
is rediscovering this affinity. When I visited Japan in preparation for the first World
Environmental Conference held in Stockholmin 1972, a heavy pall of gray, polluted air hungover Tokyo, making it no longer possible, most of the time, to see Mount Fuji from the Tokyo
television tower.And I've seen the resolute and effective manner with which Japan dealt withthese problems, reducing levels of air and water pollution more than any other industrializedcountry. But I'm sure my Japanese friends would be the first to say that there are still many
problems yet to tackle.
Improvementin air and water quality, though, is evident everywhere today, and one can
The Commemorative

Lectureswere held at the United Nations

University

in Tokyo.

191

now see Mount Fuji again from the TokyoTower,though they have kept me so busy during thistrip that I have not been able to do so this time. At the same time, Japan's awareness of its
dependence on external supplies of energy and raw material, which became acutely evident
during the oil shock of the late 1970s,was an opportunity for Japan to achieve the highest levelof efficiency in the use of energy and raw materials of any major industrial nation. And again
as I come to Japan today,I see Japan confrontingthe consequences of the worst economic slowdown it has experienced since World War II. And I am confident that it will again make theadjustments and apply the lessons of this experience to the task of ensuring that Japan will continue to be a prime leader in shaping the future of the human community in the 21st century.
No country is more vulnerable to a breakdown in the sustainability of the world economy than Japan. Japan cannot have a secure and sustainable future in an insecure and unsustainable world. There is, therefore, a strong incentive for Japan to be the world leader in sustainable development, to be the first country to make its economy truly sustainable inenvironmental, social, as well as economic terms. The progress it has made to date has laid thefoundations for this. But it will take a good deal of resolute work and commitment to build onthese foundations.
In April of 1992I had the great privilege of addressing the Eminent Persons' Meetingon Financing Global Environmental and Development Issues, just on the eve of the Earth
Summit. And I have to say that meeting made a very important contribution to the positive
results of the Earth Summit. And I want here to record my profound gratitude to the three eminent Japanese leaders who co-chaired that event: Mr. Noboru Takeshita, Mr. Toshiki Kaifu,
and Mr. GaishiHiraiwa. Their leadership meant a tremendous amount to the Earth Summit andits follow-up. Again last October they hosted the Tokyo Conference on Environment Action,
which made a number of important proposals, including one for the establishment of the
National Council for SustainableDevelopment in Japan, and an International Strategic Policy
Research Institute for SustainableDevelopment here.
Japan's capacity for leadership is reflected nobly and practically in the Asahi GlassFoundation's own guiding principle, to contribute to the creation of a richer, more vibrantsociety and civilization, and in its recognition of the fact that the global environment is themost important topic as humanity moves toward the 21st century. I am persuaded that the 21st
century will be decisivefor the human species, for all of the evidences of environmental degradation that we have seen to date have occurred at levels of population and human activity thatare much less than they will be in the period ahead. Theoretically, one can make a case thatthese problems will be manageable. But in practice, to manage them would require a degreeof social discipline and cooperative management that only a few of the more successful modern societies like Japan have thus far evidenced. In many countries of the world, and particularly in some of the newer developing countries, the political and institutional structures are
fragile and vulnerable.
In my view, the only answer is a new global partnership for security and sustainability.
This would not require world government,but a world system of governance and management.
It would require agreement on the fundamental boundary conditions that all nations and people must respect to ensure that our collective behavior does not transgress the thresholds of192

safety required to ensure our common survival and well being. We don't have to agree on
everything,we don't have to be homogenous. But we do have to agree on those limits, thoseboundary conditions that we must all respect for our common survival and well being. This
will require a major extension and strengthening of the system of partnerships that is now
emerging within civil society, as well as a new impetus to strengthening the multilateral system of institutionsthrough which governmentscooperate. As we mark the 50th anniversary of
those institutions, particularly the United Nations, the need for them has never been morecompelling.But the will to support them has never been weaker since the time of their creation.
One institutional driver that we think of today on the eve of the APEC meeting here in
Japan is, of course, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, an institution that is helping to
influenceand promote sustainable developmentin the Asia-Pacificregion. The intensificationof economic growth and integration within the APEC region will clearly have very broad andfar-ranging environmental impacts.
At times when so few nations are meeting their commitment to contribute 0.7% of theirgross national product (GNP) for officialdevelopment assistance,I want to commend Japan as
the No. 1 provider of development assistance. However, as you know, the ratio of Japan's
overseasdevelopment assistance (ODA) to GNP is still relatively low, about 0.25%. By shareof GNP, then, Japan, despite its good record in all, would still be only No. 12 among theOrganizationfor Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) donors.
I'd like to mention the non-governmental role in respect to Japan's activities. Japanese
non-governmental organization (NGO) aid to developing countries is only slightly more than
1% of its ODA. A particularly encouraging development, though, is the creation in May 1993of the Japan Fund for Global Environment to support environmental activitiesof NGOs. It has
already supported, I understand, more than 400 projects amounting to some ¥1.6 billion. And
I hope that there will be further additions to this budget and a strengtheningof this very promising organization, which basically is an instrument for strengthening the kinds of partnerships
which I believe are so important. And I see encouraging signs in Japan of an increasing interest among universities,professional associations,and other nongovernmentalactors in extending their interests and activities, and sharing their skills with the international community, particularly the developingcountries.
May I say that the world community today needs a greater and more active involvement
by Japan's non-governmental actors. And I hope that Japan in its own distinctive way willdevelop more effective mechanisms for doing this. I find that Japan is sometimes left out ofsome of these initiativesand only brought in later on, because those developingthese initiatives
outside don't always know where to plug into Japanese society,they don't know where to connect, they don't know which are the appropriate institutions. I would invite our Japanese
friends in your own way to improve and developthese mechanisms so that you can be in at the
beginning,where we need you, where your ideas and contributions are needed to shape these
initiatives and not just to wait to be asked to respond to them. We don't need just a Japan thatcan say "no," we also need a Japan that can say "yes" without waiting for everybody else to say"yes."
Japan's economy has come from being historically one of the most self-sufficient193

nations on earth with little contact with the outside, to one of the most dependent, the least selfsufficient,relying to such a great extent on imports of petroleum and other raw materials to sustain the economy and on exports for its economic performance. It is, therefore, intrinsicallyunsustainable and more dependent than most on a secure and sustainable political and economic system. It is therefore in Japan's own interest, as well as that of the world community,
for Japan to continue to assume the international leadership and responsibilities that inevitably
accompany its economic strength. It is also essential to assure the future security of Japan andthe sustainabilityof its economy.
Less than three and a half years after the Earth Summit, it is still too early to pronounce
finaljudgment on its ultimate results. After all, Rio called for fundamental changes in our economic life, and fundamentalchange does not come quickly or easily. Nevertheless, it has to besaid that the process of following up and implementing the results of Rio by governmentshas
in many respects been disappointing. But there have been bright spots, and Japan is one ofthose bright spots. You enacted a new basic environmental law that I commend as highly progressive. And you have increased your development assistance in the environmental field, inparticular.
Some other nations have also moved to implement the agreements made at Rio. In May
1994, your great neighbor China launched its own national Agenda 21 in response to Rio's
agenda, and it is one of the most extensive and comprehensive of any national sustainable
developmentagenda. But in some countries, notably the United States, there has been a recession in the political will for change ignited at Rio, accompanied by a movement to reverse,
even, some of the progress made between Stockholm and Rio.
I firmly believe that the risks that we face in common from the mounting dangers to theenvironmental natural resource and life support systems of our planet are far greater as wemove into the 21st century than the risks we face or have faced in our conflicts with each other.
And these risks can only accelerate as the levels of population and human activity continue togrow in the period ahead. All people and nations have, in the past, been willing to accord highest priority to the measures required for their own security. We must now give the same kindof priority to ensuring the security and sustainability of the life-support systems of our earth.
This will clearly take a major shift in the current political mindset and the priorities for allo
cating resources.Necessity will compel such a shift eventually.The question is whether we canreally affordthe costs and risks of waiting.We havebecome addicted to a wasteful and destructive mode of economic growth that is not sustainable.
I am an economicpractitioner myself,running a great utility company, so I feel it—I ampart of this system—trying to change it from within. But I am convinced that our pattern of
economic growth is like a cancer that is eating away at the vital organs of our society. By thetime its symptoms become more acute, it may well be irreversible. Significantly,a new generation of enlightened leaders is emerging in both business and government who realize that ourpresent industrial system is not viable, that we must make a fundamental transition to a sustainable economy. Some of you will recall the report to the Rio conference which I commissioned, headed by the Swiss industrialist Stephan Schmitai and involving some 50 other chief
executive officers, including some of your leading executives. Their book, Changing Course,

194called for fundamental changes in our industrial life based on eco-efficiency,or efficiency inthe use of energy and resources, and in the prevention, disposal, and recycling of waste . Ecoefficiencyis good for business, as well as for the environment. It must ultimately lead to a new
industrial ecology in which wastes are reused or containedwithin closed-circuitindustrial systems. This is essential, and it does not mean a diminishment in our economic life, but a reorientation. And those who see in this the new opportunities that it creates will be at the forefrontof the new eco-industrial revolution.
I know the Japanese businessmen are keenly aware of these possibilities. Japaneseindustry is facing formidable challenges but is responding to them with typical realism, foresight, and determination.Through Keidanren's Global Environmental Charter and the guidelines of MITI, Japanese business leaders are demonstrating that they are not only on the leading edge of technology, but also in the vanguard of environmental awareness and action.
Energy is at the center of the environment-developmentnexus. Already, consumptionof commercial energy by the developing countries of Asia is growing faster than in OECD
countries. And the World Energy Council's task force on energy for tomorrow's world estimates that by 2020 developing countries will need some $30 trillion in new investment tomeet their energy needs. This is nearly 50% greater than the entire world GNP, clearly an
impossibleprospect in economic terms and also in environmental terms.
We still do not have environmentally sound alternatives to fossil fuels. I know as one
who has to take decisions on our future energy supplies how difficult it is to create a good balance of choice. Nuclear has attractions, but it also has some disadvantages. These are not easy
choices.That is why energy efficiencyis so essential. My own corporation, Ontario Hydro, hasmade a massive commitment to energy efficiencyand has joined with others to create a Global
Energy Efficiency Collaborative to foster energy efficiency throughout the world. In Japan
you've done a good job. Youuse only about half the amount of energy for a unit of GDP thanis used in the U.S.A.
In the past three decades, we have become increasingly aware of a new set of risks to
our common future from the same processes of modernization and economic growth that havecreated such unprecedented levels of wealth and well-being for the privileged minority of thepeople on the planet, to whom most of its benefits have accrued. Yet, these risks are shared byrich and poor alike and accentuate rich-poor differences, both within and among nations.
When preliminary news of the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), chaired by Dr. Bolin, appeared in our newspapers in Canada, there were somepeople who were quick to point out that the evidence is not conclusive. True, but surely the
degree of scientific consensus is impressive, and surely, too, on an issue that affects the fate ofhumankind we cannot afford to wait for the certainty of a post mortem, especially when mostof the things that we must do in the short term to avert the problem make good economic andenvironmental sense, in any event, particularly energy efficiency.There were some in my own
country who suggested that Canadians really should not worry, as it might actually improve
Canada's climate. And Canada's climate can, in fact, do with some improvement. But to act
on this dubious premise would be both reckless and irresponsible.
As you know, Japan will host the third conference of the parties to the framework con-195

vention on climate change in 1997, just before the special session of the UN General
Assembly, which will review the results of the Rio Earth Summit after five years. And it will
represent a very essential opportunity to move the process of agreement very much forward
and faster than now. And the report of the IPCC will provide the basis for this.
Some 40 months have now passed since an unprecedented number of world leaders andpeople representing every sector of civil society gathered in Rio to frame a new vision for asecure and sustainable future of the human community. Now it didn't do everything that we
wanted, but it did agree on two important framework conventions, on the Declaration of
Principles and a program to give effect to them, Agenda 21. Despite shortcomings, it's still themost comprehensive agreement for the future of our planet ever to be agreed upon by world
leaders. Ironically, the progress we have made in dealing with many of the most visible andacute environmental problems of industrialized countries, as you have done here in Japan, isfostering in some a growing sense of apathy and complacency.Some of you may have heardof or read the recent book by Greg Easterbrook, the environmentaljournalist, called A Momenton the Earth, which strikes a responsive chord in many when he says that environmentalists
have been too pessimistic. But he also concedes that the progress that has been made in our
industrializedcountries has come about largely as a result of government regulation and incentives. And rather than providing a pretext for getting rid of these regulations and incentives, it
provides evidence that they are in fact what is necessary to produce change.
If the sense of common risk, then, is too distant and remote at this stage to drive concerted action, it is important that we make a stronger case for the positive elements of common
interest, which can derive from a new sense of partnership, or what I call cooperative stewardship. Again, the Rio agreements, particularly Agenda 21, and the conventions on climatechange and biodiversity,provide the basic framework for this partnership. The need for suchnew partnerships was highlighted by the Commission on Global Governments, co-chaired byPrime Minister Carlsson of Sweden and former Commonwealth Secretary General Sir Sridath
Rampath. A wide variety of new governmental actors is now emerging and leading theprocesses of change and the development of the new complexes of partnerships necessary toeffect change. In a thoughtful article in the summer 1994 issue of Foreign Affairs, Lester
Salmon compared the growth in numbers and influence of voluntary nongovernmental organizations in the last half of this century with the emergence of the nation-state system in the
18th century. This is a process that is clearly occurring in Japan, but again will occur in relation to the distinctive nature of Japanese society.
Many of the seeds planted are beginning now to bear fruit in a proliferation of initiatives
by various civil society actors and grassroots organizations. Let me just mention a few. The
Business Council for Sustainable Development has been expanded and reconstituted as theWorld Business Council for Sustainable Development, including some 120 of the world's
principal business leaders. Some 15 million engineers have committed themselves to sustainable development and their own Agenda 21 through the World Engineering Partnership for
SustainableDevelopment.A process launched in The Hague, Netherlands, is picking up on an
important piece of unfinished business from Rio to produce an earth charter for presentation
to the United Nations in 1997 with the object of having it accepted by governments by the year

196

2000. On the initiative of the International Union of Local Authorities, in partnership again
with the Earth Council, some 1,600 cities and towns have established their own community
partnerships to launch their own local Agenda 21. The World Tourist and Travel Council andthe World TouristOrganization, together with the Earth Council, recently launched in London
an Agenda 21 for the tourist industry, which is the world's largest single industry. One of themost promising results of Rio has been the establishment of National Councils for Sustainable
Developmentin some 100 countries, bringing together representatives of government and thevarious sectors of civil society in a new species of public-privatepartnership type organization,
which I very much hope will soon arise in some fashion here in Japan.
The Earth Council, which has been associated with most of the initiativesthat I havejust
mentioned, is in the business of developing partnerships, linking people at the grassroots andcommunity level with the larger policy- and decision-making processes which affect them. Its
headquarters in San Jose, Costa Rica, a developing country, links together some 30,000 partner organizations around the world—some of the largest, yes, but also many very small local
grassroots organizations.
The more rapidly developing countries of Asia and Latin America, what I call the New
South, are leading the revitalization of the global economy, challenging its domination by the
traditional industrializedcountries, and reshaping the geopolitical landscape. And I don't needto say that if these countries continue to grow, particularly as we have grown, they will bringus beyond the safe thresholds of the environmental margins that we must respect for a sustainable future. Indeed, the immense geopoliticalimplications of this shift of economic power
have not yet begun to be reflected in the existing world order.And I'm sure that I can say witha sobering degree of confidence that our environmental future will in fact be largely settled indeveloping countries. Paradoxically, these threats will come not only from their rapid economic progress, but also from the other extreme of poverty, which continues to afflict thesecountries.The gaps between rich and poor,privileged and underprivileged,are deepening bothwithin and among societies, and this if not reversed will inevitably lead to greater social tensions and potential for conflict. The Economist,hardly a radical publication, recently said in areview of the world economy that one of Karl Marx's main premises may yet be validated in
the emergence of a new rich-poor war.
I don't want to give you a catalog of doom and gloom. But I do want to make the pointthat there are evidences everywhere of the fact that even at present levels of population andhuman activitywe are effecting vast amounts of damage—immediate damage to our environment, and long-term deterioration of the conditions that make life possible, notably in termsof global climate. To effect fundamental change, we need a new set of partnerships between
North and South—notjust a new set of dependency relationships,but true partnerships. These
must be based on the understanding that our future is being decided to a large extent in theSouth, and that the South's future depends very much on our setting an example of sustainability in our own economies and in our own behavior as nations, individuals, and enterprises.
Japan is a major source of private capital for developing countries, as well as development
assistance.And Japan, I hope, will join the process that a number of us have initiated of trying
to develop guidelines and criteria for the greening of private capital and for new and innova-

197

tive ways of raising funds for sustainabledevelopment. Foreign aid is no longer sufficient.We
have to find new ways. A voluntary green tax on products from developingcountries is one that
the Earth Council is trying to launch. We're also trying to launch a new global environment
trading system to provide a mechanism for trading CO2 emission permits, so that the monies
available to reduce emissions can be spent in the places where they will buy the most reduction, and that's normally in the developing countries.
There is an intrinsic complementarity between the economies of developing countries
and the economy of Japan. And there will be an increasing degree of interdependence between
Japan and the developing world in the period ahead. This is an area in which Japan's leadership is needed and would be welcomed by the world community.Leading the world toward theestablishment of a sustainablecivilization in the 21st century would surely be fully consistent
with Japan's national character, its values, its traditional respect for nature, and its objective
interests. What finer challenge, what more noble role could there be for a nation and a people
that have shown such remarkable ingenuity, perseverance, and resourcefulness in building oneof the world's truly great nations?

198

Major Publications
Maurice F. Strong
ArticlesArticle for Commemorative Journal Relief and Rehabilitation of Ethiopia, January 9, 1995.
Chapter Submitted for Book on the United Nations: "Making the UN More Businesslike."
January 12, 1995.
Article for Op-Ed Page of the New York Times: January 19, 1995.
Draft Article for Geoffrey Lean's Publication, January 19, 1995
Article for Argentinean Newspaper Clarin: "El Gran Diario Argentina 50th Anniversary."
April 20, 1995.
Article for Conference on the United Nations, Saskatoon: "The United Nations at 50." May 15,
1995.
"Beyond the Impasse." Article for Globe and Mail, Canada. December 13, 1995.
Year-End Review, Cordex Petroleum Inc. December 21, 1995.
Foreword to Exploring Soul and Society, by M.T. Kalaw, Jr. 1996.
Foreword to Environment and Development Values in the Pacific, 1996.
Article for Environment Matters, September 8, 1996.
Lectures
Opening

Statement,

The United Nations Conference

on Environmentand Development.

Riode Janeiro, Brazil. June 3, 1992.
Opening

Statement,

OntarioStanding

1992.
"Save the Children," Second Annual
January 26, 1993.

KeynoteAddress,

1993 National

Committee

on Government

Agencies.

December

9,

Meeting,

Advisory

Council.

New York, New York.

Symposium,

National

Academyof Engineering.

California. February 26, 1993.
"Doing Business with First Nations," A Conferenceof the Canadian

Institute.

Irvine,Toronto,Ontario. March 1, 1993.
Green Industry Conference,

CEIA and Ontario Ministry of Environment

and Energy. Toronto,

Ontario. March 1, 1993.
Canadian

Environmental

Defence Fund. Toronto, Ontario. April 14, 1993.

The Sierra Club of Eastern Canada. Toronto, Ontario. April 18, 1993.
The Empire Club of Canada

and the CanadianClub of Toronto. Toronto, Ontario.

April 23,

1993.
International

MuseumDay Lecture,

Denver Museumof Natural History. Denver, Colorado.

May 7, 1993.
Commencement

Address, Colorado

Second Annual United States-Japan
School of Advanced

School of Mines. Denver, Colorado.

May 7, 1993.

Seminar

The Paul H. Nitze

Environmental

on the Global Environment,

Studies,

Johns Hopkins

Foreign

PolicyInstitute.

199

Washington, D.C. May 11, 1993.
Opening Statement, O.H. Survey of E7 Member on Agenda 21. Montreal, Quebec. May 14,
1993.
Commencement Address, King's College. Wilkes-Bane, Pennsylvania. May 16, 1993.
Commencement Address, 136th Commencement of the Fletcher School of Law and
Diplomacy, Tufts University. Medford, Massachusetts. May 23, 1993.
The Receipt of the 1993 Delphi Prize for Man and His Environment. Athens, Greece. May 24,
1993.
Commencement Address, University of Victoria. Victoria, British Columbia. May 28, 1993.
Keynote Address, Conference on Water and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa, International
Institute for Infrastructural, Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. Delft, The
Netherlands. June 4, 1993.
The Royal Ontario Museum. Toronto, Ontario. June 7, 1993.
World Congress of Architects 1993. Chicago, Illinois. June 21, 1993.
Canadian Bar Association, Ontario Branch, Natural Resources and Energy Section. Toronto,
Ontario. June 28, 1993.
Financial Executive Institute. Toronto, Ontario. September 10, 1993.
The Royal Botanical Gardens Environmental Lecture. Kew, England. September 16, 1993.
Fondazione Cervia Ambiente Environmental Lecture. Cervia, Italy. September 18, 1993.
"Into the Next Century: An Agenda for the Responsible City," London 200 Congress.
University of Western Ontario. London, Ontario. October 27, 1993.
The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies. Kingston, Ontario. November 3, 1993.
The European Institute. Washington, D.C., November 4, 1993.
Japanese Business Leaders' Conference on the Environment and Development. Tokyo.
November 10, 1993.
The Donald McQ. Shaver Symposium, University of Guelph. Guelph, Ontario. November 23,
1993.
University of Tulsa Centennial International Conference. Tulsa, Oklahoma. February 25,
1994.
1994 Canadian Graduate Business Conference. Toronto, Ontario. March 12, 1994.
North American Institute Conference (NAMI). Vancouver, British Columbia. March 21, 1994.
Globe 94. Vancouver, British Columbia. March 22, 1994.
Bicentennial Environmental Institute, Bowdoin College. Brunswick, Maine. April 8, 1994.
Professor Carl Gustaf Bernhard Lecture, Royal Academy of Sciences. Stockholm, Sweden.
April 27, 1994.
Environmental Business Council of New England. Boston, Massachusetts. May 4, 1994.
"From Forest to Society," Parallel Summit. San Jose, Costa Rica. May 9, 1994.
Global Change Forum. Ottawa, Ontario. May 30, 1994.
Asian Development Bank. Manila, Philippines. June 6, 1994.
"The Alliance to Save Energy ." Washington, D.C. June 15, 1994.
The High-Level Roundtable Conference on China's Agenda 21. Beijing. July 7-9, 1994.
Environmental Business Council of the United States, Environmental Industry Summit 1994.

200

Washington, D.C. September 13, 1994.
"Remarks at the World Ind
ustry Summit." Stanford, California. September 18, 1994.
"Human Face of Urban Develop
ment," National Academy of Science. Washington, D.C.
September 19, 1994.
Indira Gandhi Memorial Lecture. New Delhi, India. November 18, 1994.
Lynda Shaw Memorial Lecture, University of Western Ontario. London, Ontario. February 9,
1995.
"The United Nations at 50," Conference on the United Nations. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.
March 3, 1995.
SDPI-IUCN Distinguished Lecture. Islamabad, Pakistan. March 30, 1995.
"After Rio: The Question of Internatio
nal Institutional Reform." Ottawa, Ontario. March 1995.
"Cities and a Sustainable Earth," American Planning Association. Toronto, Ontario. April 9,
1995.
Commercial Markets Conference, Renewable Energy Trade Show. Ottawa, Ontario. April 10,
1995.
"Climate Change and the Need for Energy Effici
ency." Berlin, Germany. April 12, 1995.
Remarks to Annual General Meeting, American Philosophical Society. Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania. April 20, 1995.
Acceptance Speech for the Blue Planet Prize, presented by the Asahi Glass Foundation. Tokyo,
Japan. April 30, 1995.
Notes for Statement at Meeting of United Nations Governing Council. Nairobi, Kenya. May
24, 1995.
"The United Nations in the 21st Century," Speech to UN Association. Washington, D.C. June
18, 1995.
"Competition, Customer Choice, and Convergence: A New Structure for Ontario's Electricity
Industry." Huntsville, Ontario. July 4, 1995.
"The Engineer as Agent of Global Change." Snowbird, Utah. August 4, 1995.
"Environmental Stewardship and the New Parochialis
m," Acceptance Speech for 21st Century
Award. St. Louis, Missouri. August 5, 1995.
"The New South Key to a Sustainable Future." London, England. September 8, 1995.
"Nuclear Power, Competition and Sustainable Development." London, England. September 8,
1995.
Pan American Congress on Health and the Environment. Washington, D.C. October 2, 1995.
"Servicing Innovative Financing of Environmentally S
ustainable Development," Remarks to
Joint Plenary Session on Ethics and Spiritual Values. Washington, D.C. October 2, 1995.
"Faith in Humanity: The Environmental Perspective," 25th Anniversary Larkin Stuart Lecture,
Trinity College and St. Thomas's Anglican Church. Toronto, Ontario. October 5, 1995.
"From Human Environment to Sustainable Development," Stichting Ikea Foundation, Awards
and Grants. Stockholm, Sweden. October 21, 1995.
"International Development Challenges," 25th Anniversary Dinner of the International
Development Research Centre and launching of "Friends of Idre." Ottawa, Ontario.
October 28, 1995.

201

"Local Initiatives:

The Heart of the Sustainable

Development

Movement," Closing Plenary
Session of the Second Biennial Iclei Council Meeting. Omiya, Japan. October 28, 1995.
"Making Our Civilization Sustainable in the 21st Century," School of Policy Studies, Kwansei
University. Sanda, Japan. October 30, 1995.

Commemorative

Lecture for the Blue Planet Prize, presented

Tokyo, Japan. November
Statementby the Asahi Glass Foundation.

2, 1995.

to the Dubai International

Conference

Environment. Dubai. November 6, 1995.
"Business and Education Driving Sustainable

on Best Practices

in Improving

the Living

Development," Fourth International Research
Conference on the Greening of Industry. Toronto, Ontario. November 13, 1995.
"Environmental Sustainability in the Travel and Tourism Industry," Caribbean Conference on
Sustainable Tourism. Punta Cana Beach Resort, Dominican Republic. November 30, 1995.
Cerf International

Research

Symposiumand Technology

Showcase.

Washington,

D.C.

February 8, 1996.
World Tourist and Travel Conference.
"Report on Business and Sustainable

London, England. March 11, 1996.
Development," Globe '96 Trade Fair and Conference.
Vancouver, British Columbia. March 26, 1996.
"Why I Have Agreed to Come to the Congress," Opening Ceremony of 25th Iru Congress.
Budapest, Hungary. May 23, 1996.
Habitat II Forum on Human Solidarity. Istanbul, Turkey. June 8, 1996.
Dinner for Energy Ministers of OECD Countries.
North American

Regional Meeting

North American Water and Environment"Financing
Sustainability
Strategies
September

Aarhus, Denmark.

June 15, 1996.

of Civicus. Toronto, Ontario. June 20, 1996.
Anaheim,

California.

June 26, 1996.

," MIT Symposium.

Congress.

Cambridge,

Massachusetts.

5, 1996.

Korea Institute for International

Foreign Policy. Seoul, Korea. October 22, 1996.

First Meeting of the International

Advisory Board of Toyota Motor Corporation.

1996.
"The Ethical and Spiritual Values of Sustainable
National

Conference

Winston Scott Memorial
Statement

202

Developmentof the Humane Society. Washington,
Lecture. Bridgetown,

for the Scenarios

Barbados.

October 24/5,," Keynote Address to the U.S.
D.C. November 17, 1996.

November25, 1996.

of the Future Group, The Earth Council. November

28, 1996.