Social Design Engineering Series

SDES-2022-3

Does the reorganization of large agricultural farms decrease irrigation water availability? A case study of Tajikistan

Sharofiddinov Husniddin
International Fund for saving the Aral Sean, Republic of Tajikistan

Moinul Islam
Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology
School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology

Koji Kotani
School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology
Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology

10th February, 2022

School of Economics and Management
Research Institute for Future Design
Kochi University of Technology
KUT-SDE working papers are preliminary research documents published by the School of Economics and Management jointly with the ResearchCenter for Social Design Engineering at Kochi University of Technology. To facilitate prompt distribution, they have not been formally reviewed
and edited. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment and may be revised. The views and interpretations expressedin these papers are those of the author(s). It is expected that most working papers will be published in some other form.

Does the reorganization of large agricultural farms
decrease irrigation water availability? A case study of
Tajikistan
Sharofiddinov Husniddin* Moinul Islam†,‡,Koji Kotani§,¶,||, **,††

February 10, 2022

Abstract
Irrigation water unavailability has become one of the long term problems in Tajikistan. In
the post-Soviet period, Tajikistan government started reforming agricultural land for the efficient management. The reallocation was initiated by administrative boundary changes to facilitate the growing number of farmers and ensure crop diversity. However, the modernization of
the irrigation water infrastructure did not take place simultaneously. This study identifies agricultural land reform’s impact on the irrigation water demand and supply of Sugd province of
Tajikistan. We conduct the panel regression analysis by utilizing the data from 1996 to 2020 of
the 13 states in Sugd province. We identify the impact of the number of water users, irrigation
area type and water payment system on the irrigation water demand. Our results show that todeal with the changing demand of water in Tajikistan, irrigation systems need to modernize
for gravity and pump irrigated areas. The payment system for irrigation water also deservesattention for the compatibility with the increasing irrigation water demand of Tajikistan. We
also identify that irrigation water supply is impacted by the number of increasing water users.
The possible solution to deal with the water supply shortage in Tajikistan is to eradicate system loss, introduce irrigation water rationing, improve water supply networks and update theSoviet period water pumps.

Key Words: Irrigation water; water users; pump irrigation; gravity irrigation; payment forwater services; Tajikistan* International Fund for saving the Aral Sean, Republic of Tajikistan†

Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology
School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology§
Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology¶
School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology||
Urban Institute, Kyushu University** College of Business, Rikkyo University††
Corresponding author, E-mail: kojikotani757@gmail.com‡

1

Contents
1

Introduction

3

2

Literature review

6

3

Methodology
7
3.1 Study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.2 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3 Statistical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

4

Results

13

5

Conclusion

16

2

1

1

Introduction

2

The agriculture sector is one of the leading sectors in the economy of Tajikistan, forming about

3

27% of gross domestic product (GDP), and employing about 70% of the working population. The

4agricultural sector is the largest water consumer in the country, which accounts for around 90%

5of water resources. The critical factor in the country’s socio-economic development in agriculture

6

contributing to the national development strategy for 2030 and the national development program7

for 2016 to 2020. Sustainable development of agricultural and irrigation sectors plays an essential

8role in economic growth, social development, food security, poverty reduction and prevention of

9

migration through employment in the country.

10

After gaining independence and transitioning from a post-Soviet economy, Tajikistan’s gov-

11

ernment started economic reforms. The first steps of agricultural reform began in 1995. In order to12increase agricultural output, based on the rational use of natural resources in mountainous areas,

13

such as land and water resources, by the president decree in 1995, agricultural land was distributed

14

to farmers. After that, to develop high-income and profitable farm production and freedom of

15

product prices, farmers’ freedom to plant crops, and ensuring food security, in 1996 dated 25 June16by president decree was enacted.

17

A series of state programs and strategies were developed for successful agricultural reform.

18

Development of the agricultural sector was one of the programs in state economic programs such19

as poverty reduction strategy, state program on economic growth and state investment program.

20

Accordingly, former collective and state farms were reorganized into large private farms. This21

process contributed to the development of a market economy by the free pricing of agricultural

22

products and the choice for crop planting. On the other hand, a transition to the market based-23

on economy irrigation sector has been gradually transferred to the principle of self-sufficiency.

24

Resolution of the government in Tajikistan implemented water supply payment in 1996.

25

Adoption of the water sector reform program of Tajikistan for the period 2016-2025, approved

26

by the government of Tajikistan on December 30, 2015, aims to implement fundamental reforms

27

in the land reclamation and irrigation sector of Tajikistan, considering the principles of integrated3

28

water resources management (IWRM) and transition to the hydrographic management system. The

29

government of Tajikistan also pays serious attention to the reform progress, especially in the land30

reclamation and irrigation sector. Thus, at a meeting under the Prime Minister of the Republic of

31

Tajikistan “On reviewing the financial condition of the agency for land reclamation and irrigation,

32

held on September 25, 2017, ALRI and other interested ministries and departments were instructed33

to develop the necessary measures to land reclamation and irrigation sector reform, considering the34best experience of advanced countries. Also, it was aimed to establish the correct financial mecha-

35

nisms, the introduction of a cashless payment system. Thereby, the process of institutional reform36

at the ALRI began with the transition from administrative management to hydrographic water

37

resources management, as well as the merging of several district departments into one irrigation

38

management system. Regarding the WUA’s, a reform was also carried out to transfer their manage-

39

ment from administrative to hydrographic management, and WUA’s were merged in some places.

40

Due to the financial and technical instability of WUA’s, they were reorganized and transformed

41

several times.

42

Due to the imperfections of policy, regulation, and farmers’ payment ability, the former min-43

istry of land reclamation and water resources (MLRWR) failed to bring water supply and trans-

44

formation of self-sufficiency to the required level. Because of the deficiencies of funding, unsat-

45

isfactory procedures, standards of maintenance and operational works, and the lack of economic46

mechanisms between water supply organizations and water users, deterioration of technical con-47

ditions of irrigation and drainage infrastructure sharply fell. After the reorganization of collective48

and state farms, there was a problem with the water distribution and land reclamation at the farm49

level. Therefore, to solve the problem on the 8th of November 1996, adopted water user associ-50

ation law, which regulates the organization and management of water user associations (WUAs)

51

as non-profit organizations to operate and ensure the maintenance of on-farm irrigation systems

52

for the interest of water users. For coping with water distribution, operation and maintenance of53

on-farm irrigation systems, creating WUAs was necessary. However, according to the ALRI report

54(ALRI, 2015) at the beginning of 2016, Tajikistan created WUA, which covered almost 60% of

4

55

irrigated land. WUA is in the process of formation, and they are economically unstable.

56

A crucial problem in water supply organizations is water distribution to each water user be-57

cause of a sharp increase in the number of water users resulting from the reorganization of large

58

farms. A series of challenges for water supply organizations are making contracts, preparing water59

use plans, reconciliation act on water supply, maintenance and operation of irrigation and drainage

60

systems, service fee collection, and providing reliable and flexible irrigation water. Despite im-61

plementing a series of programs and strategies, the quality of water supply is getting worse in

62

Tajikistan. Before the agricultural reform, the amount of water supply for agricultural purposes in

63

Sugd province was more than 2.8 billion cubic meters; in contrast, within 20 years, this volume de-64creased to about 1.5 million cubic meters. Several factors impacting the decrease of water supply in

65

Sugd province include deterioration of irrigation systems, mismanagement of transboundary water66

resources, difficulties on water distribution to small farms, and low collection for water supply

67

services.

68

The purpose of this research is to find out the main cause of decreasing water availability

69

in Sugd province; therefore, conducting statistical analysis is the first step. In other words, this70

research examines the relationship between reorganization of large farms and amount of water71

distribution. This study further aims to investigate the impact of reorganization of large farms by72grouping districts with more than 50% of pump irrigation areas and more than 50% of gravity

73

irrigation areas. The final objective of this study is to develop recommendation to government of74

Tajikistan on future steps of agricultural and water sector reform.

75

This study employs a panel data analysis to examine region specific issues of agricultural re-76

form on water availability. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the cause of decreasing water77

supply in Sugd Province. This research seeks to answer the following questions: (1) does the78

agricultural land reforms decrease water availability? and (2) to what extent does the land re-79

forms effect water demand and supply in irrigation areas? The structure of this study organizes

80

as follows. Section 2 provides information about irrigation systems and current situation of Sugd

81

Province, Tajikistan. Section 3 explains data and methodology. In section 4, we report the re-5

82

sults and provide discussion. Section 5 represents the conclusion and some suggestions for future

83

research.

84

2

Literature review

85

Reorganization of large farms (kolkhoz and sovkhoz) has become one of the common issues

86

in post-Soviet countries. A number of research papers examined the result of agricultural reform87

and water availability issues. Studies carried out by researchers mostly focus on the effect of agri-

88

cultural reform on land and labor productivity and socio-economic situations (Besley and Burgess,89

2000, Sklyarova and Balayan, 2008, Zhantemirov, 2011, Lerman and Sedik, 2008, 2009, Rakhma-

90

tov, 2009). These studies researchers stated that, in some cases, reorganization of large farms

91

and land distribution to farmers brings positive improvement, but somehow shows no significant

92change or negative effect.

93

According to the report for European Commission under the FAO Food Security Programme

94(Lerman and Sedik, 2008), researchers have analyzed the economic effect of land reform in Tajik-

95

istan. Researchers argue that reorganization of large farms contributes to an increase in farmer’s

96

income and crop productivity. The major positive effects of the land reform pointed out are the97

growth of agricultural production by increasing stock and land, increasing productivity on house-98

hold plots, structural changes and planting profitable crops, and increasing farmers and individual99

incomes. Additionally, limitations of the reform from the previous studies are the incompleteness100of reorganization of large farms, less freedom of farmers on crop planting, and monopolistic cotton101market in Tajikistan.

102

Furthermore, previous studies of water resource management aimed to reveal the rational and103

effective use of water resources demonstrate that the decentralization of water resource manage-

104

ment can improve the condition of irrigation system, change management structure, and integrate

105

approach to water resources management (Wilder and Lankao, 2006, Nhundu and Mushunje, 2010,

106

Kholmatov and Pulatov, 2016, Kimsanov, 2015, Norov, 2010). However, an empirical analysis of

6

107

irrigation communities in south India shows that increasing in number of water users has a nega-

108

tive effect on the quality of operation and maintenance of irrigation system. Nhundu and Mushunje

109(2010) found out that the fast-agricultural reform has brought a reduction of irrigated land, a de-110cline in crop productivity, reducing funds on maintenance of irrigation systems, and a decline

111

in irrigation systems and organizations’ efficiency. Finally, most of previous studies focused on

112

impact of agricultural reform and water sector reform separately, which does not address on a

113

statistical analysis of agricultural reform on water availability.

114

3

Methodology

115

3.1

Study area

116

Sugd province is located in the northern part of Tajikistan in a semi-arid zone. Annual precip-

117

itation is 150-300 mm and dry summer reaches up to +45 degrees. Agriculture and farming play118

an important role in Sugd Province economy and contribute to approximately 30% of the regional

119

income. Total irrigated area in the province counted 286,410 hectares, including 60% of pump ir-

120

rigation. The number of pump stations is 183 with electricity consumption capacity 5812 thousand

121

kW/h. For the irrigation of agricultural land, this region consumes water intake (2.8 billion cubic

122

meters) from natural resources (river, underground water). Current water management is carried123

out by administrative boundaries of districts. ALRI has subordinate organizations, which one of124them in regional level named “Land Reclamation and Irrigation Department”, and 13 departments

125

in district level.

126

The data are collected from annual reports of former MLRWR and ALRI. In figure 1, the infor-

127

mation of water supply and water demand in Sugd Province from 1996 to 2020 is demonstrated.

128

The amount of water supply sharply decreased from 2.8 billion cubic meters to 1.5 billion cubic

129

meters. Nevertheless, water demand for agricultural land slightly increased. Notably, the irrigation

130

infrastructure was constructed during Soviet Union periods, and they have not provided rehabili-131tation works. According to the annual report of the Committee Land Management and Geodesy
7Figure 1: Water supply and demand of Sugd province in Tajikistan from 1996 to 2020. Source:
SAUGRT (2021), Statistical compendium for Sugd Province. Water demand calculated from cultivated areas by type of crops.

132

of Tajikistan (CLM&G) from 1996 to 2020, the number of water users (farmers) in Sugd province

133

increased from 1.5 thousand to around 60 thousand.

134

In figure 2, details the number of water users (farmers) in Sugd Province. It shows that reform-

135

ing of large farms “Kolkhoz and Sovkhoz” and land distribution to farmers has gradually increased.

136

According to the annual report of the Committee Land Management and Geodesy of the Republic

137

of Tajikistan (CLM&G) from 1996 to 2020, the number of water users (farmers) in Sugd Province

138

increased from 1.5 thousand to around 60 thousand.

139

According to the data of statistical agency, the cultivated land including second time planting

140

crops in gravity and pump irrigation areas. It can be seen that cultivation in both areas slightly

141

increased. Recovering agricultural production in Tajikistan associated with land distribution to142households and farmers (Lerman and Sedik, 2008).

143

Agricultural reform following the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a large increase in the144

number of water users in agriculture, especially at the level on-farm irrigation systems. As a145

result of the land reform in 1996, former large collective and state farms ranging from 500 to 4-6

146

thousand hectares have been privatized and split up into hundreds or thousands of small farms.
8Figure 2: Number of water users in Sugd province from 1996 to 2020. Source: Annual report of
the Committee Land Management and Geodesy of Tajikistan

147

However, most of irrigation system, such as canals, collectors, and pump stations in the Soviet era

148

have been designed for the huge farms. In the reform 2014-2015, large farms (10 to 100 hectares)

149

were again reorganized and land was distributed to farmers. This has led to the neglect of the150

on-farm irrigation systems, increasing problems with the distribution of irrigation water, drainage

151

functions, and decreasing water productivity.

152

According to the annual report of ALRI in 2015 ALRI (2015), the quality of providing services

153

is decreasing due to the reorganization of large farms, and they faced a great deal of difficulties on154water distribution and water fee collection. State water management departments of ALRI in one

155

district has to serve on average 15,000 hectare of land. Before the reorganization, there was 12-15

156

large farms, for which irrigation system was designed, while after reorganization the reorganization

157

becomes more than 15,000 farms. For water management in the level of on-farm irrigation system,

158

government created WUA in 2006; however the function was not as good as expected. Water

159

service tariff which collect ALRI is inadequate to provide operational and maintenance works in160

the irrigation system. In addition, WUA’s membership fee is limited for the maintenance of the161

on-farm irrigation system.

162

Another important issue is that more than 60% of agricultural land irrigated by pump stations9

163

in Sugd province. Most of the pump stations in Sugd province are considered as cascades like the164

pump stations in Zafarobod district. As discussed earlier, most of pump stations were constructed165

from 1950 to 1980. The over use of pump equipment and pipelines reduces the efficiency of pumps.

166

Water resources management on irrigation sector conducts on traditional and administrative-

167

territorial principles. ALRI is in the national level while in the province level is regional land

168

reclamation and irrigation department in Sugd region. It includes 13 district land reclamation and169

irrigation departments (LRID): 1) Aini, 2) Asht, 3) Gafurov, 4) Gonchi, 5) Isfara, 6) Istaravshan,

1707) Konibodom, 8) Mastchoh, 9) Panjakent, 10) Rasulov, 11) Shahriston, 12) Spitamen and 13) Za-

171

farobod. General structure of the management of the operation of irrigation and drainage systems

172

ALRI.

173

Sugd region is located in the Sirdarya river basin comprising of 11 districts and 8 towns. To

174

provide irrigation water to agricultural land in this area deals with one regional and 13 district orga-

175

nizations of land reclamation and irrigation. The main sources of water for irrigation are Sirdarya,

176

Serafshan, Isfara, Khodjabakirgan, Isfana and Aksu rivers. Isfara, Isfana, Khodjabakirgan, and177

Aksu are tributary of the Sirdarya river. Sirdarya, which crosses four Central Asian countries,

178

mainly formulates in Kyrgyz Republic and flows to Uzbekistan then to Tajikistan, and then to179

Uzbekistan. Most of water resources considered as trans boundary resources.

180

Dankov (2007) agues that the agrarian sector in Fergana Valley plays an important role in181

socio-economic development in Central Asia, which includes 4.3% territory Uzbekistan, 40.4% in

182

Kyrgyz Republic, and 17.6% in Tajikistan. Dankov states that an acute shortage of water and land

183

resources, non-effective economic reform, the unfavorable investment climate and border regime.

184

3.2

Data

185

The data used in this study is the secondary data obtained from the ALRI and former MLRWR,

186

CLM&G, and Statistical Agency (SAURT). The data collected for 13 districts of Sugd province in187

Tajikistan. This database of this study includes:

188(A) Data obtained from annual reports of ALRI: (i) The amount of distributed water from 1996
10

189

to 2020, (ii) percentage of collected payment for water service fee from 1996 to 2020, (iii) the190

pump irrigation area collected from technical characteristic of pump stations.

191

192

(B) Data obtained from annual reports of CLM&G: (i)Number of farmers (water users) from1996 to 2020.

193(C) Data obtained from SAURT: (i) total cultivated area for agricultural production, including

194

second time planting crops at the same area, (ii) the actual water demand from 1996 to 2020 was

195

calculated from cultivated area by type of crops. According to antimonopoly service under the196

government of Tajikistan from 1st of April 2011, water service tariff from state irrigation system197

for each agricultural crop in one hectare determined the average limit water consumption. For

198

example, one hectare of cotton needs 10,000 cubic meters; rice needs 37,000 cubic meters; fruit

199

trees needs 9,500 cubic meters; and potato needs 6,500 cubic meters,

200(D) The gravity irrigation area from 1996 to 2020 calculated from total cultivated area minus

201

pump irrigated area.

202

3.3

Statistical analysis

203

This research uses a panel data for 25 years from 1996 to 2020 to examine the impact of204

agricultural reform, known as reorganization of large farms (kolkhoz and sovkhoz), and increasing

205

number of water users on water availability (amount of water distribution) in Sugd Province of206

Tajikistan. The data consists of the amount of distributed water, number of water users, actual

207

percentage of collected payment for water services, gravity irrigated area, pump irrigated areas,

208

and actual irrigation water demand. The results of this study can indicate the impact of agricultural

209

reform on the irrigation sector.

210

Based on the hypothesis in this research, the amount of water demand (thousand meter cube per

211year) and water supply (thousand meter cube per year) are used as dependent variables. The num-212

ber of farmers, gravity irrigated areas, pump irrigated areas, and percentage of collected payment

213

are independent variables in our model.

11

The regression equaltion to estimate the irrigation water demand is follows:

W aterdemand = α + β1 W.users + β2 Gravityarea + β3 P umparea + β4 P ayment +  (1)The regression equaltion to estimate the irrigation water supply is follows:

W atersupply = α + β1 W.users + β2 Gravityarea + β3 P umparea + β4 P ayment + 

(2)

214

In this study, the an independent variable represents the number of water users farmers. A dis-215

trict with a large number of water users will tend to have decreased the amount of water supply. An

216

increase in number of water users in district is expected to decrease on water supply amount. An-

217

other independent variable represents the gravity irrigated area. The gravity irrigated area applied218

in this study to estimate the effect of increasing of gravity irrigation area on water supply. Another219

purpose of adding this variable is to determine the effect of increasing number of water users on

220gravity irrigation. The next independent variable represents pump irrigated area. This variable221

was used to estimate the decreasing amount of water supply in pump irrigated areas. More than222

60% of the Sugd province irrigated by pump station. The last variable represents the percentage of223

collected water service fee. Irrigation sector is transferring to self-sufficiency system, and future224

development of this sector depends on the creation of the cycle economic mechanism. The qual-225

ity of provided services, operation and maintenance of irrigation networks, salary, tax, electricity

226

cost, and other expenses relate to the amount of collected fees. Insufficient collected payment will

227

negatively affect the quality of service for the next year. To determine the effect of reorganization

228

of large farms on water supply, this study used a panel data regression with fixed effect model.

229

In order to analyze the impact of the increasing number of water users on the amount of water

230

distribution, it is necessary to use the following regression.

12

Table 1: Summary statistics
Variables

Unit

Mean

Water supply
Thousand cubic meter per year
Water demand
Thousand cubic meter per year
Water users in prefectures
Number of farmers
Gravity irrigation areas per year Hectare
Pump irrigation area per year
HectarePayment
Percentage of collected payment

231

232

233

4

151, 321
169, 624
1882.829
10685.840
13152.110
67.424SD
127, 30378, 266
2732.899
9748.551
10644.580
32.630Results
The purpose of this research is to identify the impacts of land reforms onirrigation water de-mand and water supply. In table 1, we report the description of the data.

234

We identify the impacts of other explanatory variables, for instance, number of water users,

235

gravity irrigation areas, pump irrigation areas, and percentage of collected payment. This study

236

uses a panel regression model with fixed effect model to analyze the effect of land reform on water237

availability from the starting period of land reform policy implementation from 1996 to 2020. We

238have collected data of 299 observations on 13 districts of Sugd province for 25 years. In order239

to determine which model is appropriate for data analysis, Hausman test was applied. In this240

model, a null hypothesis is appropriate with a random effect model while alternative hypothesis is241

appropriate with a fixed effect model. The probability value of the diagnostic test is less than 1%.

242

It means that outcome of the test is to reject null hypothesis and accept alternative hypothesis.

243

In table 2, we report the results of a fixed effect regression model. This results show the rela-244

tionship of water demand with number of water users, gravity irrigated area (ha), pump irrigated245

area (ha), and percentage of collected payment. According to the results, increasing number of246

water users in Sugd region negatively effects water supply. Number of water users have been

247

identified to be very important to describe water demand in Sugd Province. The result shows that248

the coefficient of water users is statistically and economically significant. It means that holding249

other variables constant if the number of water users increase by one unit, it might decrease water250

demand by 1.92 thousand cubic meter.
13

Table 2: Estimation of the panel regression for the amount of water demand in Sugd region
Explanatory variable

Coefficient

1.9162***(0.5402)
Gravity irrigation area 6.5299***(0.6161)
Pump irrigation area
7.0469***(1.0809)
Payment−1.0256**(48.1593)
Constant
3823.022***(13673.56)

Water users

Sample size
Number of districts
R-squared
Country FE
Hausman test (chi2)299
130.6925Y ES
13.75****** significant at 1 % percent level** significant at 5 % percent level* significant at 10 % percent level
Standard errors are in parentheses.

14

Table 3: Estimation of the panel regression for the amount of water supply in Sugd region
Explanatory variable

Coefficient−7.6044***(1.0892)
Gravity irrigation area
0.9365(1.2245)
Pump irrigation area
−3.1645(2.1482)
Payment
131.855(95.7156)
Constant
182469.9***(27175.81)
Water users

Sample size
Number of districts
R-squared
Country FE
Hausman test (chi2)

299
13
0.57
Y ES
26.82****** significant at 1 % percent level** significant at 5 % percent level* significant at 10 % percent level
Standard errors are in parentheses.

15

251

Based on the regression result, the area of gravity irrigation has positive effect (-6.53) on the252

water demand amount. In other words, the increasing area of gravity irrigation increase the level of253

water demand by 6.53 thousand cubic meter. The result shows that increasing pump irrigation area

254

has a positive relationship with water demand (7.05). It means that increasing 1 hectare in pump

255

irrigation area might increase water demand by 7.05 thousand cubic meter. As most pump stations

256

were constructed from 1950 to 1980 with low efficiency, increasing cultivation territory or second

257

time cultivation in pump irrigated areas associated with water demand. Another important issue is258that most of pump stations are considered as cascades. Water demand of farms which located in259

the second, third, and fourth cascades has a high amount of water loss. Collection of payment for

260

providing services has a negative impact on water demand (-1.03). Result of regression indicates

261

that increasing water fee collection by 1% will decrease water demand by 1.03 thousand cubic

262

meter.

263

Table table 3 shows the result of a fixed effect model regression on water supply. The result

264

shows that the coefficient of water users is statistically and economically significant. It means that265

holding other variables constant if the number of water users increase by one unit, it might decrease266

water availability by 7.6 thousand cubic meter.

267

5Conclusion

268

This study discusses the effect of reorganization of large farms, the areas of gravity irrigation,269

the areas of pump irrigation and water fee collection on the water demand and supply in Sugd

270

province, Tajikistan. By employing the panel data from 1996 to 2020, this paper finds that re-271

organization of large farms have been identified to be very important to describe water demand272

and supply in Sugd Region, Tajikistan. Past studies indicate that agricultural reform in Tajikistan273

contributes to the growth in land and agricultural production, this study shows that agricultural

274

reform significantly associated with decreasing of water availability and incresing water demand275

in Sugd Province. In other words, decreasing water availability might bring a negative effect on

16

276

agricultural production in Sugd province.

277

However, this study encountered several limitations such as the effect of transboundary water278

resource management, annual precipitations, and deterioration rate of irrigation systems. As long279

as the level of water in reservoir and water flow from upstream countries always fluctuate, there280

was not a possibility to include these data. Another reason of limitation is the lack of data on depre-281

ciation rate of irrigation systems and data on annual precipitation in this area. Furthermore, there282

is a lack of database in water resource management organizations. Thus, a future study needed to283

analyze at district level by employing a monthly data including limitations of this research.

284

Tajikistan has a limited irrigated land, and implementation of correct agricultural reform (reor-

285

ganization of large farms) plays a vital role in providing food security, increasing farmer’s income286

and provision of workplaces in the country. Water availability is the most important resource for287

increasing crop yield, and plays a significant role in the sustainable agricultural reform. A gradual288

decrease in water availability in Sugd Region, which has a dry and hot season in vegetation pe-289

riod, might bring serious problems for the development of agrarian sector. Rehabilitation of pump290

station and irrigation systems and redesigning of irrigation system to the size of farms, imple-

291

mentation of new water supply technologies, water measurement facilities, creation of database,292

and cultivation of more profitable crops with less water demand in pump irrigation areas shall be

293

necessary steps for the policy of agriculture and water sectors reform in Tajikistan.

17

References
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