CSCAP MEMORANDUM NO. 33

Contributing to the ASEAN Regional Forum: Some FreshThinking, Reviewing the Origins

A Memorandum from the Council for Security Cooperationin the Asia Pacific (CSCAP)
July 2019

CSCAP MEMORANDUM NO. 33
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM:
SOME FRESH THINKING, REVIEWING THE ORIGINSIntroduction: Reviewing Origins
In 2018, the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) focused on
the issue of “Contributing to the ASEAN Regional Forum”. The editor of CSCAP’sannual publication, the CSCAP Regional Security Outlook, commissioned a series ofarticles on the ARF. These articles were discussed first at CSCAP’s Steering
Committee Meeting in Perth, Australia, on 30 November 2018 – and then at a special
Retreat in Kuala Lumpur on 21 February 2019.
A number of the articles were critical of the progress of the ARF (see appendix below),
but the Kuala Lumpur Retreat strongly affirmed the importance of the ARF for theregion’s security. In doing so, the Retreat reviewed the origins of the Forum.
One view was that the ARF Concept Paper of 1995 had been overly optimistic – raisingunrealistic expectations. The Paper stressed the aim of moving forward in three stages– from confidence building, to preventive diplomacy (PD), to conflict resolution. The
expectation that the organization could move efficiently from confidence building to
the more ambitious stages was influenced by the prevailing assumptions of the early
1990s – particularly that the world was experiencing not only a globalization ofeconomies and communication, but also a convergence of political and social thought.
In retrospect, the early 1990s was an exceptional period and the expectations of thattime now appear too ambitious.
As it has turned out, the task of building “trust and confidence” – including theidentifying of norms capable of attracting widespread adherence, and the promotionof those norms, alongside patient multilateral deliberation on key security issues – hasbeen complex and difficult. It is also far from complete. The fact that the ARF continues
to focus on confidence building is an indication of the scale of the task, not ofinstitutional failure. The accusation that the ARF is a “mere talk shop” ignores thefundamental importance of these deliberations – and, in addition, fails to recognizethat the ARF, as the name conveys, is explicitly designed as a “forum”.
The Retreat’s Recommendations:
Although CSCAP is suggesting that the ARF should concentrate less on the threeStages (of the Concept Paper) – and continue to stress the so-called Stage 1 – werealize the ARF must also be prepared to address whatever urgent contingencies arise
affecting the region’s security. We also recognize that some contingencies would see
the effective conflation of confidence-building, preventive diplomacy and conflictresolution.

Keeping in mind the on-going function of confidence-building, a central challenge for
CSCAP is how best to contribute to the Forum’s work in this area – while stillencouraging the ARF to move steadily in the direction of PD, following the manysuggestions provided over the years by CSCAP among others.
The Kuala Lumpur Retreat made the following proposals to enhance CSCAP’scontribution:•More CSCAP activities should relate to the five priority areas of the ARF(nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament; HADR; maritime security;transnational crime; cyber security). PD can also be examined within thiscontext•

CSCAP should look for opportunities to suggest new priority areas to the ARF•

Ensure that CSCAP continues to play a broker role – recruiting the best
specialists to assist CSCAP to support ARF key activities•Continue to harness CSCAP’s leading assets (e.g. its diversity of member
organizations, close relations with government, depth of expertise andexperience)•Offer to be an informal resource base for the ARF, recording and publicizing its
key activities – and aiming to make CSCAP a reference point for incoming ARF
Co-Chairs•Be prepared to respond rapidly to ARF emergency needs, through forming
short-term expert groups (outside normal CSCAP processes)•Increase consultative meetings between the CSCAP and ARF leadership,including back-to-back meetings of CSCAP Study Groups and ARF ISMs whenpossible

The meeting also noted CSCAP’s past recommendation to develop a clearer definitionof the roles of the ARF, ADMM-Plus and EAS, and to urge closer coordination between
these institutions. The need remains for the ARF to engage with the EAS and ADMMPlus to develop a trio of linked and mutually-reinforcing ASEAN-led processes. Moving“at a pace comfortable to all” has also allowed for the slowest member to prevent
progress.

Appendix:
Commentary – negative and positive – on the ARF included in articles written for theCSCAP Regional Security Outlook 2019•

There needs to be better coordination between the ARF and other ASEAN
processes•

The ARF is often seen as irrelevant to the handling of regional challenges•The ARF tends to ignore contentious issues•The ARF seems to be losing its way and should stick to the ambition totransition to preventive diplomacy, and not move into non-traditional securityissues.

•The ARF should, in connecting with key regional issues, employ its potential
preventive diplomacy capacities, even if only as a facilitator•

The ARF is unlikely ever to be a primary problem solver in the Asia Pacific; it
has a “long-held aversion to a more activist or interventionist” role•

The ARF was right in 2009 to speak of becoming an “action-oriented
mechanism”•The ARF has helped India’s attempts to “Look East”•The ARF has played a key role in multilateralising defence concerns in theregion•

The ARF has a broader array of member states than any other regional securityforum (with 75 percent of world GDP)

•The ARF is still the “best platform to moderate the behaviour of the two majorpowers”•The ARF serves as “a fulcrum for all Indo-Pacific countries, and some beyond,to interact with each other to avoid conflicts”•

The newer ASEAN mechanisms – ADMM-Plus and the EAS – “were madepossible by the earlier confidence-building work” of the ARF

CSCAP Retreat on the Future of ASEAN Regional Forum
21-22 February 2019
Grand Millennium Kuala Lumpur
List of Participants
Co-Chairs
Suchit Bunbongkarn Anthony Milner

AusCSCAP
Ron Huisken
CSCAP Brunei
Muna Masera Masri

CSCAP Malaysia
Bunn Nagara
Tengku Sirajuzzaman Tengku Mohamed
Ariffin
Noor Hisham Rosle

CSCAP China
Yang Yi
Xing Yi

CSCAP Myanmar
Khin Maung Lynn
CSCAP New Zealand
Manjeet Pardesi

EUCSCAP
Gudrun E Wacker

CSCAP Philippines
Carmina Acuna

CSCAP India
Leela Ponappa
Soumendu Bagchi

CSCAP Russia
Victor Sumsky
Natalia Stepkins

CSCAP Indonesia
Shafiah Muhibat

CSCAP Singapore
Ong Keng Yong
Kwa Chong Guan
Joel Ng
Shawn Ho

CSCAP Japan
Tsutsomu Kikuchi
CSCAP Korea
Hong Kyudok
Hyun Taek In
Jina Kim

USCSCAPRalph A Cossa

CSCAP Laos
Phimpha Keomixay

CSCAP Vietnam
Nguyen Thi Bich Ngoc
Ha Anh TuanCSCAP Secretariat
Naufal Fauzi

ABOUT CSCAP
CSCAP is a non-governmental (second track) process for dialogue on security issues
in the Asia pacific. Membership in CSCAP is on an institutional basis and consists ofMember Committees. Current membership comprises Australia, Brunei Daurssalam,Cambodia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republicof Korea, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, thePhilippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States of America.
The functions of CSCAP are as follows:a. to provide an informal mechanism by which political and security issues can bediscussed by scholars, officials, and others in their private capacities
b. to encourage the participants of such individuals from countries and territories
in the Asia Pacific on the basis of the principle of inclusivenessc. to organize various working groups to address security issues and challenges
facing the regiond. to provide policy recommendations to various intergovernmental bodies onpolitical-security issues
e. to convene regional and international meetings and other cooperative activities
for the purpose of discussing political-security issues
f. to establish linkages with institutions and organizations in other parts of theworld to exchange information, insights and experiences in the area of regional
political-security cooperation
g. to produce and disseminate publications relevant to the other purposes of theorganisation
Further information on CSCAP can be obtained from the CSCAP website atwww.cscap.org or by contacting the CSCAP Secretariat:
CSCAP Secretariat
c/o ISIS Malaysia
1 Persiaran Sultan Salahuddin
PO Box 12424
50778 Kuala Lumpur
Malaysia
T: +603 26939366 Ext 125
F: +603 26939375
E: cscap@isis.org.myCSCAP Memoranda
CSCAP Memoranda are the outcome of the work of Study Group approved by theSteering Committee and submitted for consideration by the ASEAN Regional Forumand other bodies.
CSCAP Memorandum No. 32 - Enhancing Contributions from Asia-Pacific Countries
to UN Peacekeeping Operations
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Enhancing Contributions from Asia-PacificCountries to UNPKO
Date: March 2018
CSCAP Memorandum No. 31 - Enhancing Marine Environment Protection in the
Asia-Pacific Region
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Maritime Environmental Protection
Date: March 2018
CSCAP Memorandum No. 30 - Preventive Diplomacy: Promoting Prospects forMediation and Peaceful Settlement of Disputes in the Asia Pacific Region
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Preventive Diplomacy
Date: December 2017
CSCAP Memorandum No. 29 - Harmonisation of Aeronautical and Maritime Searchand Rescue (SAR)
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Harmonisation of Aeronautical and Maritime SAR(SG HAMSAR)
Date: July 2017
CSCAP Memorandum No. 28 - Energy Security in the Asia Pacific Region
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Energy Security
Date: June 2016
CSCAP Memorandum No. 27 - Implementation of United Nations Security Council
Resolution (UNSCR) 1540
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass
Destruction in the Asia PacificDate: April 2015
CSCAP Memorandum No. 26 - Towards Effective Regional Security Architecture forthe Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Regional Security ArchitectureDate: June 2014
CSCAP Memorandum No. 25 - Maritime CBMs, Trust and Managing Incidents atSeaAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Principles for Good Order as Sea
Date: June 2014
CSCAP Memorandum No. 24 - Safety and Security of Vital Undersea
Communications Infrastructure

Author: CSCAP Experts Group on Vital Undersea Communications Infrastructure, a
sub-group of the Study Group on Principles of Good Order at Sea
Date: May 2014
CSCAP Memorandum No.23 - Enhancing Water Security in the Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Water Resources Security
Date: January 2014
CSCAP Memorandum No.22 - Non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of MassDestruction in the Asia PacificDate: September 2012
CSCAP Memorandum No.21 - Implications of Naval Enhancement in the Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Naval Enhancement in the Asia PacificDate: August 2012
CSCAP Memorandum No.20 - Ensuring a Safer Cyber Security Environment
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Cyber Security
Date: May 2012
CSCAP Memorandum No.19 - Reduction and Elimination of Nuclear WeaponsAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass
Destruction in the Asia PacificDate: February 2012
CSCAP Memorandum No.18 - Implementing the Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Responsibility to Protect
Date: September 2011
CSCAP Memorandum No.17 - Promoting the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass
Destruction in the Asia PacificDate: June 2011
CSCAP Memorandum No.16 - Safety and Security of Offshore Oil and Gas
Installations
Author: CSCAP Study Group on the Safety and Security of Offshore Oil and Gas
Installations
Date: January 2011
CSCAP Memorandum No.15 - The Security Implications of Climate ChangeAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Security Implications of Climate Change
Date: June 2010
CSCAP Memorandum No.14 - Guidelines for Managing Trade of Strategic Goods
Author: CSCAP Export Controls Experts Group (XCXG) a sub-group of the StudyGroup on Countering the Proliferation of WMD in the Asia PacificDate: March 2009

CSCAP Memorandum No.13 - Guidelines for Maritime Cooperation in Enclosed andSemi-enclosed Seas and Similar Sea Areas of the Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Study Group on Facilitating Maritime Security Cooperation in theAsia PacificDate: 2 June 2008
CSCAP Memorandum No.12 - Maritime Knowledge and Awareness: BasicFoundations of Maritime Security
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Facilitating Maritime Security Awareness in the Asia
Pacific
Date: December 2007
CSCAP Memorandum No.11 - Human Trafficking
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Human Trafficking
Date: June 2007
CSCAP Memorandum No.10 - Enhancing Efforts to Address the Factors Driving
International Terrorism
Author: CSCAP Study Group on Enhancing the Effectiveness of the Campaign
Against International Terrorism
Date: December 2005
CSCAP Memorandum No.9 - Trafficking of Firearms in the Asia Pacific RegionAuthor:
Date May 2004
CSCAP Memorandum No.8 - The Weakest Link? Seaborne Trade and the Maritime
Regime in the Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Memorandum with the support of members of the Pacific Economic
Cooperation (PECC) Network
Date: April 2004
CSCAP Memorandum No.7 - The Relationship Between Terrorism andTransnational Crime
Author: CSCAP Working Group on Transnational Crime
Date: July 2003
CSCAP Memorandum No. 6 - The Practice of the Law of the Sea in the Asia PacificAuthor: CSCAP Working Group on Maritime Cooperation
Date: December 2002
CSCAP Memorandum No.5 - Cooperation for Law and Order at SeaAuthor: CSCAP Working Group on Maritime Cooperation
Date: February 2001
CSCAP Memorandum No.4 - Guidelines for Regional Maritime Cooperation
Author: CSCAP Working Group on Maritime Cooperation
Date: December 1997

CSCAP Memorandum No.3 - The Concepts of Comprehensive Security andCooperative Security
Author: CSCAP Working Group on Comprehensive and Cooperative Security
Date: December 1995
CSCAP Memorandum No.2 - Asia Pacific Confidence and Security-BuildingMeasuresAuthor: CSCAP Working Group on Confidence and Security Building Measures
Date: June 1995
CSCAP Memorandum No.1 - The Security of The Asia Pacific Region
Author: CSCAP
Date: April 1994