A Wild Solution for Climate ChangeBlue Planet Prize
Commemorative Lecture
Tokyo
November 1, 2012
Thomas E. Lovejoy
University Professor
Environmental Science and Policy
George Mason University
Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTPlanetary Boundaries

Source: Rockström, J. et al. 2009Dr. Svante August Arrhenius
1859-1927

Analysis of a Greenland
ice core oxygen isotope proxy$8=:-/'+55+-/:8/-4/:

CO2 for the Last 600,000 Years
=::/7<5A 996
2007

COO2-concentration- o ceo (pp(ppm))

4003603201750

280
240
200
160

600'000

500'000

400'000
300'000
Years before
before present

Siegenthal
Siegenthaler
thaller U ett alal.l.l (2(2005)2005) Science 310:1313
31
Petit JRR et al.l.l (1999) Nature 399:429

200'000

100'0000© .>74+7

9+36+7'9:7+'453'2=*+-

Global temperature record$8=:-/+.5/A/7<:/+7.536+<3-#/;/+:-2&73<$-2885807>3:876/7<+5$-3/7-/;&Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios!%%#"%&(&' !%%#"%
&' !%%#"%
$$!%& %&#"
$$!%& %&#" (Avgs.)
2007
2006
2005

SRES (2000)
aver. growth
rates in % y -1
for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42
A1FI: 2.71
A1T: 1.63
A2: 2.13
B1: 1.79
B2: 1.61

Observed
2000-2007
3.5%




Global Carbon Project; Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

Signals fromnature'7''48+4&&+7+3=/992+%4/;+78/9=5,&'8./4-954

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTWarming trend in 37 of 39
Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers$8=:-/"68.303/.0:86+17=;87/<+5Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park
Late summer of 1938 (left) and 1981 (right)$8=:-/2<<97:6;-=;1;18>:/;/+:-215+-3/:):/<:/+<2<6Rising sea level

Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay

Blackwater
National Refuge,Maryland
Photo Courtesy of NOAA

Probable Increased Frequency of MoreIntense Tropical Cyclones$8=:-/$#!

     Wildfire increase in Western U.S.

'+:6/:;=66/:;+7./+:53/:;78?6/5<;
37-:/+;/.8998:<=73<3/;08:?35.03:/37<2/?/;</:7&$,/137737137<2/63.  ;$8=:-/'/;</:5371  

Earlier flowering date

Climate Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew

Kew Magazine, Summer 2007

Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier• Across the USA, treeswallows are nesting
9 days earlier than
40 years ago• Laying date is highly
correlated with Maytemperature$8=:-/+6355/"+:6/;+7

Edith’s Checkerspot• Range shift northward andupward during the 20th century• Most extinctions in south andlow elevations

Hardiness zones adjusted to warmer climate$8=:-/ +<387+5:,8:+A8=7.+<387Replacement of marine copepod plankton
communities in NE Atlantic$8=:-//+=1:+7./<+5$-3/7-/Eelgrass

Chesapeake Bay•Largest estuary in theUnited States•In 2006 Underwater
grasses decreased by
25% Baywide•Decrease from 78,263
acres in 2005 to 59,090
acres in 2006

F''+7873-2D5/C9:+B

Increasing number of dry days

$8=:-/"8=7.;/<+5Decoupling
Snowshoe Hare (Lepus Americanus)

Photos: University of Michigan/-8=95371:-<3--8.+7.,5+-41=355/68<#5:7)+<<<8,58:',+*:7+8+'7).8+'/)+(/59'National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)

Biological Response
Phenological changes
attributed to recentclimate change&./9++9'2)'79=Looking ahead

''4+6854

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTSugar Maple range projections
by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO2$8=:-/":+;+.+7.>/:;87#???0;0/.=;7/./5+?+:/+<5+;37./@2<65

$230<;37;9/-3/; .3;<:3,=<387;+:/534/5A <8,/ 5+:1/

536+</-2+71/
369+-<;87
=:89/+7,//-2
Niche-based model
MODBIOMOD
iller
W. Thuiller






Mechanistic tree
growth model
CASTANEA
A Cheaib,
C François,E DufrêneClimate Change includes
precipitation change%/69/:+<=:/

Projectedchanges
for 2090":/-393<+<387Lake Chad Basin

Lake Chad is 1/20ththe size it was 35years ago

Loss of stream segments able tosupport cold-water trout!7+8+49

 E

$8=:-/"800/<+5

,+;/.87/2/5/:+7.#+2/5 3+7/)'46/1' 928<8+- (???934+?8:4;-86

Spatial Pattern ofSpecies Richness

Species Extinctions
%"&$"
!

Dark red = high species richness













!"$%""#


Mean Range Size



Williams et al. 2003. Proc Roy Soc Lond. B: 270:1887-1892

$""#  

!"#$""

Slide courtesy of Stephen Williams

Sea Level Rise in the Next 100 Years
Galveston

Whooping Crane
habitatMany
importantplaces on theTexas Coast
will disappear#5:7)+'3/22+!'73+8'4

Key Deer
National Key Deer Refuge
Big Pine Key, Florida•84,000 acres, Established 1957

Population Low:
27 in 1957
Population today:
Between 700 and 800

Photo courtesy of National Key Deer Refuge

$8=:-/'8:5.'35.530/=7.

Complications
+7.;-+9/3;2=6+7.8637+</.
2+,3<+<3;0:+16/7</.
$9/-3/;.87H<68>/<81/<2/:2+71/?35578<,/537/+:8:1:+.=+5$A;</6-2+71/

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT5362/)'9/548
+7.;-+9/3;2=6+7.8637+</.
2+,3<+<3;0:+16/7</.
$9/-3/;.87H<68>/<81/<2/:2+71/?35578<,/537/+:8:1:+.=+5$A;</6-2+71/

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTEcosystems disassemble and species
reassemble into new ecosystems$8=:-//?3<<+7. 3-285;#5362/)'9/548
+7.;-+9/3;2=6+7.8637+</.
2+,3<+<3;0:+16/7</.
$9/-3/;.87H<68>/<81/<2/:2+71/?35578<,/537/+:8:1:+.=+5$A;</6-2+71/

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT#5:7)+'/+7"+/3+7

Elevated night time temperatures
magnify bark beetle impact

Wednesday, March 1, 2006

‘Rapid Warming’ Spreads
Havoc in Canada’s Forests

QUESNEL, B.C. -Millions of acres ofCanada's lush green
forests are turning redin spasms of death. A
voraciousbeetle,
whose population has
exploded with thewarming climate, iskilling more trees
than wildfires orlogging.

$8=:-/$<:=-4  9

Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (19592002)

Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation© WWF-Cannon / Jurgen Freund5362/)'9/548
+7.;-+9/3;2=6+7.8637+</.
2+,3<+<3;0:+16/7</.
$9/-3/;.87H<68>/<81/<2/:2+71/?35578<,/537/+:8:1:+.=+5$A;</6-2+71/

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENTCourtesy of NOAA/NCAR

Amazon Rainfall in 2010 and 2005
(deviation from 10-year mean)
2010

2005

S. Lewis, P. Brando, D. Nepstad, submitted

7/9/)'29.7+8.52*8/49.+'79.8=89+3?

&.+7+25)'2577+-/54'2).'4-+83'=.';+89754-+,,+)9854+'79.
8=89+3/49+7')9/548,++*(')18579+2+)544+)9/548

Acidifying oceans are a challenge for species
using calcium carbonate

Acidifying oceans are a challenge for species
at the base of the marine food chain[Source: www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification]

a pteropod, or sea butterfly, is a typeof planktonic mollusk

Deteriorating chemical condition for coral reefs
In the pre-industrial ocean, 99.8% of coral
reefs were near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25

Under a 550 ppm atmosphere, < 2% of coral
reefs will be near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25
01
Corrosive tocoral reefs

23Ωaragonite

45
Optimal forcoral reefs

&.=/8' 9'7-+95,  663955./-.
$<5*+-7++8/89553:).
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'899/3+'79.<'8 5<'73+78+'2+;+2<'8 3./-.+7

'9'"5.2/4-       

?At today’s level of 387ppm CO2, reefs areseriously declining and time-lagged effects will
result in their continued demise with parallel
impacts on other marine and coastalecosystems.
?Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will
not prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs
from the combined effects of climate change
and ocean acidification.
?To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs
atmospheric carbon dioxide level must be
reduced significantly below 350ppm.
Royal Society Meeting,
July 6th 2009

What is a “safe” level?

James Hansen,et al., 2008

350 ppm      What canbe done

Adaptation-Revise Conservation Strategies
Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations-Reduce and eliminate emissions--revise energy base for society--reduce/eliminate deforestation

Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies

7-:/+;/7+<=:+5-877/-<3>3<A<8
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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)
1.5 Pg C y-1

4.2 Pg y-1

Atmosphere46%
2.6 Pg y-1

Land29%+

7.5 Pg C y-1

2.3 Pg y-1

Oceans26%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

871+<68;92/:3-:/;3./7-/<36/;
08:1://728=;/1+;/;

What canbe done

Lower Atmospheric CO

2- Restore ecosystems(biodiversity and carbon)- Non-biological CO removal
2The Role of Life Processes!:313780
5+7.95+7<;":/;/7<.+A!

@9+7;38780
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CO2 PPMTime

%2/#85/808:/;<;

#/;<8:371:+B371+7.

Photo courtesy USDA NRCS8.30A1:3-=5<=:/<8=35.=9$835+:,87

Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Re-Greening the Emerald PlanetTHE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT