Role of Research in Infrastructure Rehabilitation/Renewal
Decision Process and Financing Options – Seismic Design
水道施設の更新に関する意志決定及び資金代替案に関する研究の役割―耐震計画について

Yasumoto MAGARA, Research Initiative “Sousei”,
Hokkaido University, Japan
北海道大学創成科学研究機構‑ 345 ‑

眞柄泰基

Role of research in infrastructure rehabilitation/Renewal decision process and financing
options – seismic designMAGARA,Yasumoto
Professor, Creative Research Initiative “SOUSEI”
Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japanmagara@eng.hokudai.ac.jp
Abstract
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has published the Vision of Water
Services in June 2004 in order to renovate the Japanese water services system for thesustainable development in the 21st century. This vision is composed many aspects as
an attached document, however this paper deals the standpoint relating with disastermanagement in the Vision, and the lesson learn from Great Hansin earthquake in 1995
and the cost/ benefit analysis of renovation of water distribution system of a model city.
The background of the water vision describes the current situation and future
prospect of Japanese water supply sector. The disaster management in the vision
describes the needs and action program so as to enforce anti earthquake potential ofwater services.
The lesson learned from Great Hansin earthquake describes of the importanceof water quality management. The cost benefit analysis concludes that the cost to
renovate water distribution system brings large enough benefits to water services.
1. Water Vision
1.1 Objectives
On water services in Japan, about 110 years have passed since the modern
water system started in Yokohama, and half a century has almost passed since thecurrent Water Works Law was established. During this period, the water services
expanded in service area as well as water quantity on the high economic growth period
from 1960s to 1980s. And now, it spreads and most of the citizen can use it. In thestability of water quality, water quantity and business management, Japan is one of thecountries where world-leading water services are realized.
On the other hand, in the early part of the 21st century, many water facilities inJapan which were developed in the 20th century become too old, and the renovation is
the most concern. The 21st will be the century when we will, for the first time,
experience the large-scale reconstruction of the water facilities which will be conducted
repeatedly in the future. Furthermore, the ever-increasing trend of the population willend and we are about to go into the decreasing population era. In addition, theenvironment surrounding the water services in Japan is changing significantly: Review
of allocation of roles between the public sector and the private sector, and between the
citizen and the local government, globalization, move regarding the framework of local
autonomy such as merging of municipalities, reduction of young engineers in water
entity.
In this way, on the field of water services, it is time for us to deal with thoseissues and sustainable development with improving water supply service to citizne
further based on the previous development.
The problems which the water services and the water administration face andthe direction of argument are shown in Living Environment Council Report, "Measures‑ 346 ‑

"Measures to improve the water quality of tap water in the future"(November in 1990)"Long-term objective of the improvement of water system toward the
21st century (Fresh Water Supply)" (June in 1991)"The role of water supply and water supply administration in the
21st century"(Water Supply Fundamentals Study Meeting, July of 1999)
Change of the environment
surrounding the watersupply in Japan

Revision of parts ofWater Works Law
2001

Escalation of the issues
which the water supply
business faces

Analysis and estimate of the actual situation and the vision of the future

The future of the watersupplyEstablishment of the common goal of the staffs
Clarification of the future policy issues
Demonstration of the concrete measures and schemes

Figure 1 Objectives of the vision of water services
to improve the quality of water services in the future" (November in 1990) and"Long-term objective of the improvement of water system toward the 21st century(New Benchmark for Better Water services)" (June in 1991) in Heisei era. The details ofthem are concretely shown in "The role of water services and water administration in
the 21st century" which was compiled by Water Fundamental Problem Study Meeting inJuly of 1999. And institutional response is conducted to some of them according to therevision of Water Works Law in 2001. However, the environment surrounding the water
services in Japan is changing fast. The problems about the water services including new
problems, such as water quality in private wells and the role of water business in themerger of municipalities are increasing.
The characteristic of the vision is to analyze and estimate the actual situationand the prospects of the future as quantitatively as possible based on the results of Water
Fundamental Problem Study Meeting, to argue the future of the water services as a

‑ 347 ‑

result of them, and to aim at establishing the common perceptions about the future of
the water services among all persons involved in the water services.
The objective of the vision is to show the process so that the stakeholders canhave the common goal, can divide their responsibilities each other and can work
together in the early part of the 21st century. Therefore, in this vision, we decide toshow the important policy issues concerning the water services in the future, anddemonstrate the concrete measures, the schemes, and the process to deal with the issues
clearly and comprehensively.
Foreseeing the middle of the 21st century, we decided that the target period of
this vision was approximately ten years.
1.2 Disaster management – Need In water business, securing of water for life and livelihood is required even incases of natural disaster such as earthquake, accident of water quality, and emergency
such as terrorism. Therefore, it is necessary to secure the safety of principal water
facility, and the water supply to main facilities, and the system in which renovation is
implemented immediately even when it is damaged.
However, among principal facilities such as purification plants and distribution
reservoirs, the facilities which are now reinforced against earthquakes account for 23%
around the country, the main pipe lines (conduits, main water pipes and etc.) which arereinforced against earthquakes account for almost 13%, and the water suppliers which
create the temporary water supply plan account for approximately 34%. In this way, we
cannot say that we are well prepared in both software side and hardware side on anationwide scale. In addition, facilities become too old, so the vulnerability against
earthquakes is increasing.
Now water is indispensable for national life and industrial activity. We will
implement systematic and efficient facility renewal so that the facilities can fulfill thefunctions enough and the fairness of the burden between the current users and the futureusers can be kept.
We will resolve the problem relating to the people who cannot obtain sufficientwater even at normal time as early as possible and will implement stable water supply inthe regions which are weak to drought.
In emergency situations such as natural disaster including earthquakes,
electricity failure and accident of water quality, the improvement of facilities will be
implemented to minimize the damage to facilities, and in case of the damage offacilities caused by the disaster and accidents such as burst of water pipes, the system inwhich appropriate temporary measures and quick restoration can be implemented will
be developed to minimize the influence by water failure and low water on users.
In the implementation of these measures, we will achieve accountability about
the effect and cost to users, will gain social consensus, and will advance them based on
the characteristics of the region.
1.3 Disaster management – Enhancement measures On the anti earthquake measures, the manual of anti earthquake measures forwater services which was revised in 1996 on the base of the experience of Great
Hanshin Earthquake is available. Also, the enhancement of the cooperation with thebureau in charge of disaster prevention administration, and the steady implementation of
the measures against emergency situation such as accidents of water quality are required‑ 348 ‑

Situation

・Lifestyle whichcannot be formed
without watersupply, Social
economy activity
・Antiearthquakeof facility, Lack ofimprovement ofemergency watersupply base・Intake from theriver system inwhich drought
frequently occurs
・Enhancement ofantiterrorism
measureProblems
・Enhancement ofdisastercountermeasures andpromotion ofantiearthquake ofwater facility
centering on corefacility
・Promotion of
measures against
drought based on thecharacteristics of theregion・Mutualcooperation, securingof safety in area by
widening, cooperation
with relevantorganization toward
optimization of
investment

Main Measures

・Enhancement ofantiearthquake
measures
Absolute response

・ Promotion of
measures against
drought based on
the characteristics ofthe district

Solution・ Securing ofsafety in area by
mutual cooperation
and widening
・Enhancement of
postmortem dealing
at disasterFigure 2 Disaster management of water supply
for water suppliers. Then, we should take it into consideration that we are not onlypressed by postmortem dealing but also take measures to prevent them in cooperation
with relevant persons. We will promote the measures for securing water to importantfacilities such as evacuation centers and medical facilities at disaster , and we will
absolutely and immediately promote the anti earthquake measures mainly in the districts
which are expected to suffer great damage from large-scale earthquakes such as Tokai
earthquake and Tonankai・Nankai earthquake.
The water system is the network structure centering on principal facilities suchas filtration plants. These operate as an individual system, or multiple systems are
established in conjunction with each other according to the situation of cities. To secure
the safety of water system against the risk at disaster, from the view of risk dispersion
and avoidance of redundant investment, it is effective in risk management and economy
to secure the safety in area by mutual cooperation and broad-based measures.
So, as disaster countermeasures, we will promote the measures systematicallyso that the safety in area can be secured by the review of the program on facility
improvement toward securing the safety not in individual facility but in the wholesystem, the mutual cooperation or widening in neighboring water supliers or in watersupliers in a certain sphere, and establishment of the cooperation system with local
residents. Then, we will take important measures so that the water supply route toespecially important facilities such as evacuation centers at disaster and hospitals can be‑ 349 ‑

secured.
On securing the safety in area, we should respond to not only hardware side,
improvement of facilities, but also software side, the emergency water supply and therapid emergency repair which contribute to shortening of influential period after thedisaster. On emergency water supply, and improvement of emergency repair, individual
water supplier develops the plans on those issues. And in addition, we will improve thesystem so that small-scale water suppliers can be supported by the neighboring watersuppliers. Because the organization of smaller-scale water suppliers is more vulnerable
in general.
Toward the expression of comprehensive measures effect with the measuresrelating to securing of drinking water at the disaster which will be conducted by thebureau in charge of disaster prevention administration, and the improvement ofefficiency, under the close cooperation with local residents and appropriate allocation ofroles, we will conduct the adjustment at the plan level in the local disaster prevention
planning and the systematic budget securing.
To respond to the problems, we will promote the following measures.
・Enhancement of Anti earthquake Measures, Absolute Response
・Securing of The Safety in Area by Mutual Cooperation and Widening
・Enhancement of Postmortem Dealing at Disaster
1.4 Disaster management – Action programTo enhance the stability of water supply at disaster, in hardware, we will
intensively tackle securing of the lifeline under the concept in which the principal
facilities of water services, and the important bases in securing of water supply at
disaster such as bases of temporary water supply and medical facilities are unified. We
will improve the system in which required water is supplied at disaster, and which
includes the improvement of the connecting lines that enable broad-based mutualtransfer across the sphere as well as in the neighboring water supplier. We will improveand enhance the system to implement prompt restoration in case of suffering of a
facility.
Also, in software, we will promote the development of the local disasterprevention program and the conclusion of the mutual support agreement in cooperation
with the bureau in charge of disaster prevention administration.
Further, we will establish an audit system which is composed of several watersuppliers, investigate and coordinate the general measures in both software side andhardware side in the broad-based disaster countermeasures, secure the safety in area,and mainly develop a scheme to minimize the damage caused by water failure and low
water. In addition, we will enhance and strengthen the support measures in technology
and finance to support the measures which water suppliers implement.
From the experiences that the last earthquake disaster gave, many problems
have found to remain to be solved by our Bureau against natural disasters, such as
earthquakes, floods or water shortage, and against incidents, such as contamination of
toxicants or pathogenic microorganisms to the source of water supply, any of which
may occur in the future.
To prevent or reduce the influence of water failure and low water on thenational life and socioeconomic activity at disaster such as earthquake and drought, andin the situation of terrorism and others, by estimation of the water facility function inwhich the improvement can be instructed, improvement of the stability of water supply‑ 350 ‑

Appearance of efect ofcomprehensive measures bycooperation with the bureau incharge of disaster prevention
adiministration

Securing of safty in area

Mtual cooperation/ Widening
Soft ware

HardwareAppropriate temorary measures

Securing pondage

backupconnecting lines

Earthquake proofing

Enhancement of backup function

Coordination and coopration withlocal prevention program

Temporary water supply

Quik restoration

Quick restoration system

Role of entity

Establishment of broad-based cooperation

Financial and technical support by the government

Figure 3Action program of disaster management

against the drought, intensive and strategic improvement of facilities in cooperation
with the bureau in charge of disaster prevention administration, we will improve thesafety and stability of the whole water system, and further promote the enhancement of
temporary water supply system and quick restoration system at disaster.
The typical objectives of measures to achieve are as follows.
・To increase the percentage of earthquake proofing of core facilities such as
water treatment plants and distribution reservoirs to 100%, and achieve it as
quickly as possible especially in the strengthening areas of measures against
Tokai earthquake (hereinafter referred to as Tokai area), and the promoting
areas of measures against Tonankai・Nankai earthquake (hereinafter referred‑ 351 ‑

Establishment of audit

Prevention of damage

to as Tonankai・Nankai area).
・To advance the earthquake proofing in pipe networks mainly in principal
lines. To increase the percentage of earthquake proofing principal lines to100%, and achieve it as quickly as possible especially in Tokai area andTonankai・Nankai area.
・To develop the temporary water supply program in the whole business andsecure the target volumes of temporary water supply which is set in the
program. To achieve it as quickly as possible especially in Tokai area andTonankai・Nankai area.
・To improve the quick restoration system such as the support agreement at
disaster with other supliers in the whole companies. To achieve it as quickly
as possible especially in Tokai area and Tonankai・Nankai area.
2. Lesson learned from Great Hansin Earthquake
2.1 Damage of water supply
The Great Hanshin Earthquake occurred at 5:46 am. January 17, 1995 in thesouthern part of Hyogo Prefecture. The earthquake caused a lot of terrible damage to thecitizens in southern Hyogo Prefecture area. The number of fatalities in the earthquake
was more than 6300 and the number of destroyed houses, completely or partially, wasmore than 237 000. The earthquake had significant impact on lifelines, as well as
damage of residential and commercial buildings, railroad, and highway. The watersupply was cut off in ten cities and seven towns. The countermeasures of water supply
in that occasion are an appropriate reference, as shown in followings, for emergency
situation.
The outline of the damage of the water supply by the earthquake is shown in
Table-1. Because the so many water supply pipes were damaged simultaneously, waterin the pipes ran out rapidly and the water pressure flattened. The water leakage at too
many damaged points made it difficult to detect the exact location. The damage rates of
the water supply pipes were 2.22 location km-1 in Ashiya, 1.00 location km-1 in
Nishinomiya, 0.44 location km-1 in Kobe. The extraction of mechanical joint was themain cause of the damage. Supply pipes were damaged at 180 000 households, whichwere equivalent to 13 percents of total households. But in Ashiya and in Akashi, where
polyethylene pipes were used under the road, little damage was reported for thoseportions. Besides the damage of water distribution pipe systems, water treatment
facilities and water supply reservoirs were also damaged. The Niteko dam in
Nishinomiya collapsed severely, and the surface of the Kitayama dam also partly
collapsed. In the Hanshin Water Supply Authority, the first period aqueduct from the
Yodo River was damaged, and the restoration took for about one month. At the
sedimentation tank of the Inagawa water filtering plant in the Hanshin Water Supply
Authority, the expansion joints extended and water leaked out. Since the damaged joints
were restored successively, the plant resumed its operation in someway.
The damage was comparatively small except the Egeyama distribution tank inKobe. Immediately after the earthquake occurs, the water supply were cut off at 1 265
730 households in ten cities and seven towns in Hyogo Prefecture which was equivalent
to 90 percents of total households of these area where water was supplied to 3 495 000
residents. Since the damage of water supply of a city and two towns in southern part of‑ 352 ‑

Awaji Island was comparatively small and restored within short period. The watersupply in nine cities and five towns was cut off for longer time. Especially in Kobe,
Nishinomiya, Ashiya, Amagasaki, Itami, Tsuna, Awaji, Hokutan Higashiura, the watersupply was cut off entirely. The damages of the water utilities in the Hyogo Prefectureamounted more than 55 800 million yen.
2.2 Water quality management in the disasterIn the last case, the target of enhanced disinfection was set at 1.5 ppm ofresidual chlorine at the outlet of the water purification plant. As no infectious disease
outbreak was reported, the system is assumed to work properly. However, it isconsidered that further enhancement would be necessary as a countermeasure against
pathogenic microorganisms in summer.
On the other hand, on a disaster, the sodium hypochlorite which will haveintense demand may not available because of extremely bad traffic jam; therefore,
emergency logistics including the rearrangement of the system, i.e. the method ofdelivery, water storage tanks, etc. should be well considered. In addition, the emergency
manuals must be prepared for the stock, and water utility agencies and related
departments should provide disinfectant by themselves, and whenever needed, pour itby themselves into water truck tanks and water storage tanks.
Just after the last earthquake, considering the water safety for drinking, theemergency operation center discussed to issue the 'boil water' notice as public
information through mass media, as well as the enhanced disinfection. The discussion
was focused on the USA's case of the Great Northridge Earthquake in 1994. However,the discussion reached to the conclusion that it was very difficult to publish the 'boilwater' notice under the circumstances which heat sources such as the electricity or gas
were completely cut off throughout the city, and fire had broken out everywhere andspreading owing to shortage of water for fire fighting. If the earthquake disasteroccurred in summer, it could have been assumed that 'boil water' notice would havebeen published whenever or wherever necessary. For future, a nationwide consensus
must be established on this problem.
At emergency such as a disaster, it is very important and also useful to executemonitoring on every field spot, with water quality inspection expedited rapidly andsimplified, and with handy measuring instruments for water quality. Besides, since theautomatic monitoring system for water quality was very effective for monitoring in realtime after the last earthquake, new monitoring stations were installed at the outlet of theemergency water tanks, which were newly set up underground at four spots of parks in
the Bureau. Thus, the system includes 15 monitoring stations at the terminals of pipelines now and more stations will be set up successively in future.
As to the mutual assistance system for monitoring and management on water
quality on last earthquake, no request for assistance was made for staffs outside of theutility agencies or the like. In future, however, in case of a great earthquake or the likein summer, it will be necessary to make requests for outside staffs' assistance. Therefore,
it is required for each of waterworks utilities to set up immediately the system for theacceptance of assistance from the outside and for the dispatch of staffs for assistance.
And also, it is desirable that the procedures in such system will be established in amanual-form program standardized on the nationwide scale.
3. Cost benefit analysis of renovation of water distribution net-work‑ 353 ‑

3.1 Risk management
Earthquakes are considered the biggest risk to water supply. So most water
utilities undertake measures against the earthquake. The authors consider the financial
benefit is the most important factor in the selection of anti-risk measures. It is noted,
however, that the priority of risks to be considered by experts or risk managers may notalways conform to that of laypersons. (Slovic, 1995) Here discusses a conceptual
procedure of selecting priority risks, which comprise a multirisk to water supply.
The risks such as earthquake, flood and draught are now called the primaryrisks; and the ensuing risk such as damage in water mains and the cost of emergency
water service are termed the sub risks.
Anti-risk measures are classified into (1) mitigation, (2) imputation, and (3)retention of the risk. (Kusano, 2000) “Mitigation” means measures to reduce theprobability of risk occurrence, or mitigate the risk damage by structural strengthening,
moving, etc. In “risk imputation”, although the occurrence of a risk is allowed, thecaused financial loss is hedged by such measures as insurance schemes, bond issues, etc.
A risk with low probability but vary high cost(damage)is often valued higher than a risk
with high probability and low cost.(Japan Standards Association, 2000) “Retention of
the risk” denotes the option to leave the system in question as it is without doing
anything.” Mitigation of the risk” is not necessarily superior to “Retention of the risk.”
If the benefits of the anti-risk measure do not exceed the cost thereof,” Retention of therisk.” may be opted. The two elements will persist unless 100 percent of the risk isremoved.
The cost of a risk is generally defined as the holistic sum of the damage andcost of its sub risks, e.g., in the case of earthquake risk, the restoration cost of damaged
facilities, the lost water sales due to the suspension of operation, the cost of emergency
water service and so forth. To be also included are: the higher value of water toconsumers at the time of severe dearth of tap water than at normal times, or consumer's
surplus, the value of industrial, commercial and service production of the community,etc.
which are forgone because of interruption of service,orlargely reduced supply.(Tomono
and Magara,1996b)
In general there may be more than two measures against a risk. What’s more,
there will be more than two scenarios about the extant of implementing the measure.
One example is an anti-seismic measure against the earthquake risk to water mains. The
measure can be (1) the replacement of entire fragile pipes, or (2) the replacement of
only a part of it. The condition will be similar in the case of other risks.
2.2 Benefits of Anti-Risk Measures
Benefits of anti-risk measures depend on various factors. As to the earthquake
risk, for example, the size of the benefits of anti-seismic measures will depend on thesize of real damage, which is related to the assumed intensity of the tremor, the return
period of the quake, etc. In case the assumed seismic intensity is high, the potential
damage by the risk will be heavy, so the benefits of the anti-risk measure will also begreat. Likewise, the benefits will be large if the assumed return period is short; and viceversa.
The benefits of an anti-risk measure are the balance of the cost of the risk lessthat of the risk after the measure has been undertaken. Now let’s assume the cost of risk
i to be MiO, the cost after the measure is made to be MiR and BiR as the benefit of themeasure against the risk i,‑ 354 ‑

BiR = M iO − M iR････････････(7.1)

Denominating ij as the sub risk j of the risk i, MiR (i=l to 〔l el〕are expressed as
ΣMiOj and ΣMiRj (j＝ｌto m), respectively. Therefore, the benefits BiR of Risk i isexpressed as follows:
l ,m

l ,m

i , j =1

i , j =1

BiR = ∑ M iOj − ∑ M iRj････････････(7.2)

Due to the probabilistic nature of the risk, the values of MiO and MiR are rather
nominal. Denoting the probability of the occurrence for each year as e, the real value ofthe benefits BiR is e(Mio-MiR ). The present worth PpT of an annuity Pa for n years at a
discount rate of r is expressed as follows: (Grant and Ireson 1970) It is proposed touse the discount rate of 5 percent, which is devised as the of return on working assets ofwater utilities in general. (American Water Works Association, 1999)
PpT = Pa ⋅(1 + r ) n − 1
r (1 + r ) n ....................... (7.3)

Therefore, the total real risk MiOT and the total real residual risk MiRT for the
economic life n years of the anti-risk measure are the following:l ,m(1 + r ) n − 1
M iOT = e ∑ M iOj ⋅r (1 + r ) n ............... (7.4)
i , j =1l ,m

M iRT = e ∑ M iRj ⋅i , j =1

(1 + r ) n − 1
r (1 + r ) n ............. (7.5)

Therefore, BiR is rewritten as follows:(1 + r ) n − 1
BiR = e ∑ ( M iOj − M iRj ) ⋅r (1 + r ) n ............. (7.6)
i , j =1
l ,mFurther denominating CiR the cost of the measure against risk i, the following
equation examines whether or not the benefits of the anti-risk measure would exceed thecost of the anti-risk measure.
BiR ≥ CiR ......... (7.7)
Since the benefits do not always exceed the cost of the risk, the following
benefit cost ratio, should also be considered:B
Ei = iC i ......... (7.8)
2.3 Case study
The following is a case study on the earthquake for a mode city in Japan.
According to a consumer survey conducted by the author et al indicates that these risks,‑ 355 ‑

inter alias, are perceived by consumers as the most major risks related to watersupply.(Tomono and Shirozu,1996) The model city has the following features:! Total population: 100,000 persons! Age group structure of the population: In accordance with the age group structureof Saitama Prefecture as the outcome of the 2000 census! Water demand: 34,600m3/day! Total length of water mains in the distribution network:287km, of which pipematerial is composed of: ductile iron pipe(DIP)29.7%; cast iron pipe (CIP)9.5%; steel pipe(SP)3.6%; asbestos cement pipe(ACP)18.2%;polyvinyl chloride
pipe (PVCP)32.4%. (Tomono and Magara 1999a)! Soil condition in the city area: A flood plain of medium consistencya) The Seismic Risk on Water Mains
Applying the above model city, the earthquake risk against water mains wasanalyzed, and the benefits of the measures against it were evaluated. (Tomono andMagara, 1999b) The hypothetical earthquake is assumed to have a seismic intensity ofLevel 2 (Tremor scale: 7).
The cost of risk:(Sub risk 1) Damage to water mains (a total for all pipe materials):¥1,222×106(Sub risk 2) Loss in water sales due to the reduction in distributed water:¥57×106(Sub risk3)Cost of emergency water service (for water wagon, etc.):¥440×106(Sub risk 4) Loss of consumer's surplus due to the curtailed water service:¥347×106(Sub risk 5) Loss of general production:¥2,900×106
Total¥4,966×106
Considering the probabilistic nature of the risk, as its assumed return period is
70 years, the true value of the cost is ¥70.9×106. Then applying the uniform series
present worth factor of 18.26 at the discount rate of 5% p.a. for the life of the anti-riskmeasure of 50 years, the total seismic risk is computed as follows:¥70.9×106×18.26＝¥1,295×106b) Cost of Anti-Risk Measures:
Three alternative measures against the earthquake risk to water distribution
mains ware designed as follows:(1)Alternative A: to replace 20% of DIP,40% of CIP,80% of ACP and 80% of PVCP
pipes with DIP fitted with non-slip type joints:
Cost:¥5,551 x 106(2)Alternative B: to replace, in the same manner, 10%, 20%, 40% and 40% of DIP, CIP,
ACP and PVCP:
Cost: ¥5,551 x 106(3)Alternative C: to replace, in the same manner, 5%, 10%, 20%, and 20% respectively:
Cost: ¥1,388 x 106c) The implementation of the respective anti-risk measure will realize the true residual
risk costs as follows (total for 50 years):(1)Alternative A:¥157 x 106(2)Alternative B:¥586 x 106(3)Alternative C: ¥899×106‑ 356 ‑

d) Benefits of the anti-risk measure
The benefits of the respective anti-risk measures are estimated as the difference
between the cost of risk with and without the anti-risk measure as follows:(1) Alternative A: (¥1,295-¥157)×l06=¥l, 138×l06(2) Alternative B: (¥1,295-¥586)×l06=¥709×l06(3) Alternative C: (¥1,295-¥899)×l06=¥396×l06e) Economic Benefits of the Anti-risk Measure and their SignificanceEconomic benefits of the anti-risk measures are the following:(1) Alternative A: (¥1,138-¥5,551)×l06=-¥4,413×l06(2) Alternative B: (¥709-¥2,776)×l06=-¥2,067×l06(3) Alternative C: (¥396-¥1,388)×l06=-¥992×l06
This shows that none of the alternatives will bring large enough benefits torecover their costs.
4. Conclusions
It is unavoidable of serious disaster that disturb water supply of potable water.
In case of a strong earthquake, physical forces damage water supply. Then public watersupply system can not afford necessary water for daily community activities such as not
only domestic but also social and business activities, even in a hospital services. In
order to reduce the risk of the interruption of continuous water supply it is necessary torenovate the existing water supply system from the both of hardware and softwaresystems. The example of the cost and benefit analysis of the renovation of water
distribution system in a model city shows that the cost of it brings large enough benefits
to recover it after the disaster.
Therefore, as shown in the water vision, water services supplier should
implement further efforts to reduce the risks of damage of their system by theearthquake especially in the areas of high risk large earthquake warned by thegovernment.
References
American Water Works Association (1999) AWWA manual M1:Water rates
Japan Standards Association (2000) Risk management Guide
Kusano,N. The need for risk management in civil engineering(2000). Journal of Japan
Society of Civil Engineers. 84:07
Slovi, P. et.al: Intuitive Toxicology,II Expert and Lay judgment of chemical risks in
Canada, Risk anlysis. 15,661-675
Tomono,K and Shirozu,T (1996) consumers perceptions of risks related water supply.
Journal of JWWA. 65:10 ,15-25
Tomono,K and Magara.Y.( 1999a) An analysis of costs and benefits of anti-riskmeasures in water supply((1) Definition of subrisks). Journal of JWWA. 779 , 2-12
Tomono,K and Magara.Y.( 1999a) An analysis of costs and benefits of anti-riskmeasures in water supply((2) Consumers surplus equation). Journal of JWWA. 780 ,26-36‑ 357 ‑

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