OECD Expert Group on AI Futures
AI has pervasive, far-reaching and global implications that are transforming
societies, economic sectors and the world of work, and are likely toincreasingly do so in the future.
-OECD AI Principles

While Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy discussions often cover existing AI challenges, the long-term
implications of rapidly advancing AI systems remain largely unknown. Experts raise a wide range ofpotential future risks from AI, some of which are already manifesting in various ways. These potential
risks include bias, discrimination, surveillance, lack of accountability, untrustworthy AI systems deployedin critical infrastructure, job displacement, and mass manipulation, among others. More generally, many
experts are concerned about the ability to ensure increasingly general AI systems are safe and alignedwith human values, prevent the misuse of advanced AI systems, and address other negative societalimpacts. Future benefits of AI may be just as great, with the potential to address complex issues, improvehealth and education outcomes, and accelerate scientific progress. Future-focused activities, such as
strategic foresight exercises, are critical to better understand AI’s possible long-term impacts andproactively seize potential benefits and manage prospective risks to avoid future harm.
The OECD Expert Group on AI Futures aims to address these challenges by providing insights into thepossible futures of AI and equipping governments with the knowledge and tools necessary to develop
forward-looking AI policies. More specifically, the group provides insights on:•Key milestones for possible future developments in advanced AI systems.

•Potential medium to long-term benefits and risks of AI.

•Suggested policy approaches and solutions to actively shape plausible AI futures to maximise
benefits and mitigate risk.

•Future trajectories and considerations for present-day AI systems, such as generative AI.

•Best practices in AI safety.

In addition, the group considers the possible long-term advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), thestage at which AI systems could exceed human-level intelligence across a broad spectrum of activities.
While views differ on the likelihood and timing of AGI, there is broad consensus among experts that thepossibility of AGI should be planned for, and its risks mitigated well ahead of its development.
By engaging with policy makers, experts and partners from all stakeholder groups, the OECD is working
to ensure governments are well-prepared for the future of AI. This work advances the OECD’s mission tohelp implement the OECD AI Principles, the world’s first intergovernmental standards on AI.
The Expert Group on AI Futures is co-chaired by:•Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkeley.

•Francesca Rossi, IBM Fellow and AI Ethics Global Leader, IBM•

Michael Schönstein, Head of Strategic Foresight and Analysis; Policy Lab Digital, Work & Society;
Germany.

Broader context
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation
with 38 member countries that works to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-2
being of people around the world. Decision-making at the OECD is led by the OECD Council, which
oversees a number of Committees that bring together countries to share experiences, review policy
actions, and propose solutions. Each Committee has one or more Working Parties under its purview
focused on examining policy issues in specific subject domains. An OECD Secretariat carries out the dayto-day work of the OECD. It is comprised of directorates and divisions that provide input and analysis for
the Committees and their Working Parties.
Consistent with this overall structure, the Committee on Digital Economy Policy (CDEP) is comprised ofdelegates from OECD member and partner countries to examine issues related to digitalisation andinnovation. Under CDEP, the Working Party on Artificial Intelligence Governance (AIGO) is the official bodyexamining AI policy issues and trends, charged with helping governments implement the OECD AIPrinciples. AIGO gives direction to the Secretariat’s OECD.AI Policy Observatory, which conducts analysis
and builds international dialogue to support AIGO’s mission. The Observatory operates under theDirectorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) and its Digital Economy Policy Division (DEP).
To advise AIGO and the OECD.AI Policy Observatory in an informal capacity, the OECD.AI Network ofExperts on AI (ONE AI) was formed in 2020. It provides AI-specific expertise and advice about policy,technical, societal and business topics. Much of these efforts centre around a handful of expert groups,
currently comprised of groups on AI risk and accountability, AI incidents, AI compute and climate, AIfutures. Particular to the Expert Group on AI Futures, this group is created and operated in partnershipalongside the OECD Strategic Foresight Unit, part of the OECD Office of the Secretary General.

Working methods and outputs
The Expert Group on AI Futures meets for 90 minutes every six to eight weeks. In general, meetings areheld virtually, but there may be opportunities for in-person or hybrid meetings. Unless otherwise specifically
discussed, all meetings will be held under the Chatham House Rule.
Each meeting will be facilitated by the co-chairs and will address topics that the OECD.AI Policy
Observatory team and co-chairs will propose to group members in advance. These topics may be selectedbased on a number of factors, including the OECD programme of work, emerging political and societal
events and trends, and preferences from the expert group members.
The approach to the meetings will include a mix of facilitated discussion on the topics at hand, as well as
specific strategic foresight methods (e.g., scenarios development and exploration) to help the group toimagine and respond to different potential futures.
Group members may be asked to participate in other activities to help advance relevant OECDworkstreams. Such activities may include reviewing draft meeting summaries and reports relevant to group
outputs, or completing questionnaires to help the OECD to inform and prioritise related initiatives. The
OECD will strive to minimise the burden of these activities for group members.
The expert group will inform several known OECD outputs; however, the potential also exists for new ideas
for other outputs to be generated organically from the group. In addition, the overall message andsubstance of the known outputs is open to group input. The known outputs consist of:•A published summary of each Expert Group meeting (non-attributed).

•

A stocktaking on existing AI futures research and expert opinion, incorporating Expert Group views.

•

A report as part of the OECD programme on AI in Work, Innovation, Productivity, and Skills (WIPS).

•A capstone report synthesizing the findings from the Expert Group into an overarching narrative,
set of conclusions on potential risks and governance opportunities for future developments in AI,and a set of policy recommendations.