TRIZ:
Necessary But Not Sufficient
Customers And Theories Of Everything
Darrell Mann©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

The Innovation Challenge:…Getting it Right is Hard – the odds are heavily stacked against you: -* over 90% of innovations fail before theyreach the market* over 90% of those innovations that doreach the market will also fail
* Over 90% of innovations are delivered late,over‐budget or to a lower quality than wasoriginally planned* Over 90% of collaborative innovations fail©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

..And If You Thought That Was Bad
Academic research:
every $100 invested willon average return$3 (gross) in revenue.
As a Global Average.
In the UK the returnwould be just over $1©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Where & Why Do Innovations Fail?
- Law Of System Completeness

CONTROL

ENGINE©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

TRANSMISSIONTOOLINTERFACE

Law Of System Completeness - Business

Co-ordination

Means ofProduction©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Route toMarket

More Ideal
Product/ServiceMarket
DemandWhere Failures Happen
Co-ordination

MarketDemandMore Ideal
Product/Service

Means ofProduction

Route toMarket(The technical solution is < 20% of the problem)©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Theories Of Everything~500 years ago~2500 years ago©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Theories Of Everything
DivisionConsolidation

Division

Complexity

Integrated
Knowledge
Start ofnew model©2009 DLMann, all rights reservedTimeDeath By A Million Tools

RCA

Chaos Theory

8D

Axiomatic
DesignIBA

VSM

Design for
Manf/AssyZBB

Osborn

6σT
P
M

FMEA

Buzan

QFD

WOIS

MACAT
WOE

PEST
Analysis

Patterns
ParetoFT

SpiralDynamics

Affinity
Diagrams

GAO
DI

Simplex

Hoshin©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

5SOA

Biomimicry

SW
OT

TaguchiSplit Half

FourthTurning

WhackPack

Ladder Of
Abstraction

SIT

Fishbone
Diagrams

Boyd
OODA

OpenInn.

BiasesUSP

MeansEnd
Analysis

Value
Engineering

Shainin

DeBonoKepner‐Tregoe5FO
RCE
S

Kansei

RPR

Typhoon

Function
Analysis

Oblique Strategies

Lean

NLP

Pahl/Beitz

Morphological
Analysis

CPS

TRIZ

Pugh

spc

Blue Ocean

Theory Of
Constraints

Sun
Tzu

P
L
O
T
S

Thinker
Toys

AFD

Trend
Analysis

OLV

MCDA
CBR

Pattern Language

Scenario
Planning©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

All the insights in one place

Maps Of The WorldInternal World

External WorldI IT

Singular
CONTROL

PluralWE ITS©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

I IT

Tool

EngineMeans Of ProductionMore Ideal Product

CONTROL

Co‐ordination

Interface

Transmission

Market Demand

Route To Market
WE ITS©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Pugh

Oblique Strategies
Thinker
OLV
Toys
DeBonoWhack
CPS
SpiralPack
Dynamics
OsbornMA

NLP
ParetoBuzan

Scenario
Planning

OpenInn.
QFD

CT

FourthTurning
Patterns

TRIZ

PESTAnalysis
HoshinVSM

Affinity
Diagrams
FT

WE ITS©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Kepner‐Simplex
TregoeSITAFD

5Theory Of
FConstraints
ORBoyd
SC
OODAW
EO
ZBB
USPST
Trend Biases
SunAnalysis
Chaos Theory
Tzu Kansei

Pattern Language
MeansEnd MCDA
Analysis

Blue Ocean
CATWO
E

spc

CONTROL CBR

O
A
RPR

I IT

WOIS
8D
Function
Typhoon
RCA
Analysis
Pahl/Beitz
Value
Fishbone
DiagramsBio- Engineering
Design formimPMorphological 5S
icry
L 6σ Manf/Assy
AnalysisLean
T O Taguchi
Split Half
P T
ShaininM S GA
AxiomaticIB
Design A
FMEA

Five Innovation DNA strands©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Engaging At All Levels Inside Client Organisations…
4. Leadership Innovation(‘work different’)

3. Strategy/Management Innovation(‘sell different’)2. Technology/Offering Innovation(‘make different’)1.

Process Innovation(‘make better’)©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Innovation Happens When....

Voice
Of TheCustomer©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

matches

Voice
Of TheSystem

Maps Of The World

META

Voice
Of TheCustomer©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

MEGAMICRO

Maps Of The World

META

Voice
Of TheCustomer©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

MEGAMICROMETAFUNCTIONALITY* FUNCTION = ‘JOB’ = ‘OUTCOME’* ‘Solutions Change; Functions stay the Same’(we will all continue to want to achieve the function‘communication’ but we will not necessarily want amobile phone to achieve it)* TANGIBLE & INTANGIBLE©2009 DLMann, all rights reservedCustomers Buy ‘Outcomes’

We

FOCUS
MeTangible

Intangible

TANGIBILITY©2009 DLMann, all rights reservedCustomers Buy Outcomes

Collective/Societal

Individual

move family/friends
protect family/friends
entertain occupantsminimise environment
damagemove me from A-B
transport goods
protect me
isolate me

Tangible‘safe family’‘peace of mind’

reward myself
my safety
empathetic-conversation‘woman’s touch’

Intangible“A man makes a decision for two reasons – the good reason and the real reason.”
J.P.Morgan©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Defining Perfection…
ATTRIBUTE

ATTE
U
IB
RTO
CFLNTSCI

CUSTOMER A IFRCUSTOMER B IFRPROVIDER IFR

etc

Hits
Accuracy
Cost
Security‘Colour’Logo
Hits/screen

Key questions when looking for conflicts: ‘Is there anyone who does not want this IFR?’ Why?
‘Is there a new attribute we should be thinking about?’©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved‘Good Solutions’…
Achieve the FUNCTIONwith zero cost or harm

PerfectTIMEToday…deliver more perfect outcomes©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Maps Of The WorldMETA

VoiceOf TheCustomer©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

MEGAMICRO

Inevitable Surprises©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Inevitable Surprises©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Inevitable Surprises©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Inevitable Surprises II©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Case Study Example

On January 23, 2009, Harley-Davidson announced they werecutting 1,100 jobs, closing facilities and consolidating others.
The company reported its fourth-quarter profit fell nearly 60
percent.
Harley-Davidson’s stock sold at $72 a share in 2006 when
the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at its highest level inhistory. It closed at $11.50 on January 26, 2009.

©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Case Study Example©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Basic Idea – I – Complex Systems

The manner in which you were raised by your parents
In turn influences how you raise your children©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

US/UK Generational Cycles

HEROARTISTNOMAD

PROPHET

0-20(Generation Y) HERO
protected(Silent) ARTIST
suffocated(Boomer) PROPHET indulged(Generation X) NOMAD
abandoned

21-41
heroicsensitive
narcissistic
alienated

42-62
hubristic
indecisive
moralistic
pragmatic

63-83
powerful
empathic
wisetough(2006 characteristics in red)

Strauss, W., Howe, N.,‘The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy’,
Broadway Books, New York, 1997.
©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

The Impact Of Cultural Shifts On TimingAge8060402001950

1960

1970

1980

SILENT BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

1990

2000

GENERATION Y‘MILLENIALS’

2010
?

2020

Year

The Impact Of Cultural Shifts On Timing
Age
80
wise

tough

powerful

empathic

wise

60
pragmatichubristic

indecisiveheroicsensitive

narcissi
stic

suffocated0

indulgedmoralist
ic

pragmatic

40
alienated

heroicprotectedsuffocate
d20

1950

1960

abando
ned
1970

1980

1990

SILENT BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y‘MILLENIALS’©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

2000

2010

2020

Not Yet Named

Year2030

The Impact Of Cultural Shifts On VotC
Age
80

60402001950

1960

1970

1980

SILENT BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

1990

2000

GENERATION Y‘MILLENIALS’

2010
?

2020

Year

The Impact Of Cultural Shifts On Timing
Age
80

60

40

JK Rowling
20readers
01950

1960

1970

1980

SILENT BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

1990

2000

GENERATION Y‘MILLENIALS’

2010
?

2020

Year

The Impact Of Cultural Shifts On Timing
Age
80

60

402001880

1900

LOSTNomad

1920

G.I.
Hero

©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

1940

1960

1980

2000

SILENT BOOMER GEN X GEN YArtistProphetNomad

Hero2020

TODAY2040

YearGeneration Y – Key Life Contradiction

VHero(told they can do anything)©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Unskilled(can’t do anything)* 40+ years of research* The social and psychologicalequivalent of TRIZ: study
and distillation of the way
the world works* Repeating Patterns:
Discontinuous Shifts
in consciousness/thinking* ‘Social System DNA’©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Beige1. Survival

newborn infant, Alzheimer’s victim, shell-shock

Purple2. Tribal

gangs/tribal rituals/magic blood oathRed

3. Feudalpower gods/ego, feudal rule, heroic, predatory‘terrible two’s’

4. Ordercodes of conduct, hierarchy/order, ‘moral majority’chivalry, puritan

Bluematerialism, competitive, self-interest, ‘nature tamed’,‘management by objective

Orange5. Scientific

Green

6. Communitarian‘sensitive-self’, deep ecology. ‘politically correct’
reconciliation/consensus/networking

Yellow

7. Holarchy

flexibility/adaptive, inter-dependence, co-opetition

Turquoise

8. Holistic

universal order, ‘Theory of Everything’,
spiritual harmony©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved1. Survivalreproduction

food, water, warmth, safety

2. Tribal

good fortune, ‘one of the gang’
revengecurses/spells/rejection/isolatio

3. Feudal

ego-gratification, ‘my way’
mass adulation, rebellion

defeat, loss of power
rivals/threats

4. Orderstability, obedience, medals
status, promotion

change, rebellion from others
loss of status, outcast

5. Scientificpeer recognition, ‘best in show’biggest/best/fastest, merit pay

losing, ‘keeping up with theJones’

6. Communitarian‘making a difference’, harmony‘maximise my potential’

orange or blue attitudesaggression/conflict/hierarchy

7. Holarchy

knowledgeable/’wise’, ‘life-longlearning’, discovery/challenge

sub-optimization, rigidity‘stupid rules’

8. Holistic‘defining the jigsaw’, ‘wrongjungle’, empathy/trust

non-holistic
non-spiritual©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

8. Holistic
6. Communitarian
4. Order2. Tribal

Collective

IndividualSocial Focus

1. Survival
3. Feudal
5. Scientific

Recursive
Individual-Collective-individual
Cycles©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

7. Holarchy

2D Trend Map… Developing Individuals & Teams

Heroic +hedonistic
Pragmatic +moralistic

Heroic +moralistic

moralistic

Pragmatic+
optimising

Heroic +manipulative

moralistic +manipulating

Pragmatic +indecisive

Heroic +communitarian

moralistic +indecisive

Pragmatic +flexible©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

moralistic +flexibleNOMADHEROARTIST

PROPHET

1. Survival

2. Tribal

3. Feudal

Middlemen

4. Order5. Scientific

Ms Independent

6. Communitarian

7. Holarchy

8. Holistic©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Karma QueenMaps Of The WorldMETA

VoiceOf The
Customer©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

MEGAMICROConsumer Trends – What’s Going On?
Every retailer spends time capturing and analysing consumer trend
information. Almost invariably, once the information is captured, thefuture will very quickly deviate from what the trend predicts.
Even though, we can look at any individual trend and say to ourselves‘yes, I can see that this is a logical trend relevant to my operations’
What is going on here?

©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved- ageing population- longer life expectation (active for longer)- greater determination to live life to the full- sharp increase in single-occupancy homes/single parent families- increasing importance of the extended family- increasing property prices – children staying home longer- increasingly sedentary lifestyle (compensated by guilt-trips to gym)- increasing safety/health consciousness- increasing religious/spiritual awareness- ‘chutneys’ – hand-made goods- authenticity- increasing risk aversion- increasing awareness of sustainability/environmental issues- Internet shopping/delivery of consumables- desire for ‘little luxuries’ – affordably expensive rewards- highly aspirational materialistic lifestyles (‘I-want-more’ culture)- increasing desire to simplify a complex world- desire for more convenience in mundane tasks- rising power and influence of female- disappearance of Mr/Mrs ‘Average’ – desire for individuality- desire for ‘cocooning’ (nest-building)- higher expectations as customer/greater inclination to complain- ‘Big Mother’©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

trenDNA

I-Want-It-Now/Life-On-Credit
The existence of easy credit means that manypeople have switched their spending philosophy
from ‘buy after I saved’ to ‘buy-now, pay-later’. The
average personal credit card debt in many nations
now exceeds 6 months of salary.

N7
Re-enforcing Trends•Convenience•Cocooning•Individuality•Brand Addiction•Little Luxuries•Internet Shopping•Ms Independent

Contradicting Trends•Guilt•Spiritual Life
•Save Our Society•TechnoFear•Anti-sumers•X-anonymous•Opting Out•Hyper-Local© Ideal Final Result Consultants Ltd,UK©2009 DLMann, all rights reservedEverything Connected To Everything Else©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Maps Of The WorldMETA

VoiceOf TheCustomerMEGAFUNCTIONIDEALITY

DEMOGRAPHICSSPIRAL DYNAMICS
FOURTH TURNING

MICROConsumer Trends
B2B Trends©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Maps Of The WorldPEOPLE TRENDSSPIRAL DYNAMICS& GENERATIONSDEMOGRAPHICS
FUNCTIONPERFECTION
TO BEAS IS©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

Innovation Happens When....

Voice
Of TheCustomer©2009 DLMann, all rights reservedmatches

Voice
Of TheSystem

Maps Of The WorldFUNCTION
IDEALITYMETA

DEMOGRAPHICSSPIRAL DYNAMICS
FOURTH TURNINGMEGAMICRO
Consumer Trends
B2B Trends

Identifies CONTRADICTION©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved

MICRO….

Solves it

www.systematic-innovation.com

trenDNA
Understanding Populations Better

Than They Understand Themselves

Darrell MannYekta Özözerfor Business& Management
Darrell Manndarrell.mann@systematic-innovation.com©2009 DLMann, all rights reserved