The

Winnersof the Blue
1994

PlanetPrize

1994Blue

PlanetLester R. Brown(U.S.A.)

Professor Dr. Eugen Seibold(Germany)
Professor

Emeritus

at the University

Prizeof KielFounderandPresidentof the Worldwatch

Institute

At the 1994 Blue Planet Prizeawardsceremony,
the slide
presentation
centeredon thetheme of the interconnectedness of life on Earth.
The
images depicted
our planet's
beauty as a rich tapestry of life

woven from the greenof the trees and young
grass sprouts together
with the insects
andother animals.

111

His Highness

Prince Akishinoand Her Highness

PrincessKiko.

His Highness
Prince Akishino
deliveringa congratulatory
speech.

LesterBrown
gives his speechon theEnvironmental
Revolution—a
restructuringof the global economy in line with environmentally sound practices.

Professor Jiro Kondo, chairman of the Selection
Committee,
explains the rationale for the determination of this year's winners.

Walter F. Mondale (left), ambassador of the United States ofAmerica to Japan, and Dr. Heinrich Dieckmann (right), ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to Japan, congratulating the laureates.

112

Dr. Seibold
delivering
his lecture
about the influence of the sea floor on
the environment.

Profile

Professor
Professor

Emeritus

at the University

Dr. Eugen

Seiboldof KielEducation and Academic and Professional Activities
1948— Ph. D., University of Tubingen
1949-51 Assistant Professor, University of Tubingen
1951-54 Assistant Professor, Technical University of Karlsruhe
1954-58 Associate Professor, University of Tubingen
1958-79 Professor and Director, Geological-Paleontological Institute , University of Kiel
1964-70 Chairman, Geological Association (Geologische Vereinigung)1967
Chairman, Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) 19th meeting on
Micropaleontology, in Cambridge, U.K.
1970

Chairman,

SCOR 31st meeting on Geology of the East Atlantic Continental Margin ,U.K.

in Cambridge,
1971

Member,Deutsche

Akademie

1972

Member,Akademieder Wissenschaften

1974

Member,JungiusGeselleschaft

der Wissenschaften

1974

Chairman,

SCOR

37th meetingon Marine

1974

Chevalier

Ordre

1976

Honorary

Member,Palmesder Naturforscher,

Leopoldina/Halleand der Literatur,

Plankton

Mainz, Hamburgand Sediments,

in KielAcaderniques

GeologicalSociety,London1980-84 President, International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)
1980-85 President, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) , Bonn
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1988
1989
1989

Member, Societe Geologique, France
Honorary Fellow, Geological Society,U.S.A.
Honorary Fellow, Geological Society,Africa
Corresponding Member, Bayerische Akademie Wissenschaften, Munich
Grosses Bundesverdienskreutz
Honorary doctorate, University Parisien
Honorary doctorate, University of Norwich, U.K.
Member, Heidelberger Akademie Wissenschaften
Honorary Professor, University of Tengji, Shanghai
Honorary Senator, University of Kiel
Honorary Senator, University of Giessen
Honorary Member, Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina/Halle
Member, Akademie Europaea
Member, Akademie Wissenschaften,Gottingen
Membre Associe Etranger, Academie des Sciences, Paris

1984-90 President, European Science Foundation (ESF) , Strasbourg,

France113

1986-

Honorary

Professor,

1994

Member,Kroatian

1994

Asahi

Glass

University
AkademieFoundationof Freiburg
WissenschaftenBlue Planet

Prize,Tokyo

Dr. Eugen Seibold, professor emeritus at the University of Kiel, is a marine geologist whose
career has been devoted to exploring seafloors and the processes that shape them. Through his
important seminal research ranging from coastal waters to deep-sea zones, Dr. Seibold has
informed and inspired a generation of marine geology researchers.
Conducting his research from a geological perspective, Dr. Seibold has promoted an
integrated, interdisciplinary approach to marine geology by combining geophysics, geochemistry, oceanography, marine biology, soil engineering, and environmental science, and his
research has covered a broad range of activities. Lauded as a researcher of extreme foresight,
Dr. Seibold has accumulated experience and knowledge that bear directly on solutions to
global environmental problems.
Dr. Seibold received his Ph.D. from the University of Tubingen in 1948. In 1954, he wasappointed associate professor at the University of Tubingen and in 1958 joined the Universityof Kiel as a full professor and director of the Geological-Paleontological Institute. From 1980
to 1985, Dr. Seibold served as president of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and from1984 to 1990 as president of the European Science Foundation. Since 1986, he has been an
honorary professor at the University of Freiburg.

114

EssayEarthquakes
Protection
Professor

andVolcanic

Eruptions:versus

Prediction

Dr. Eugen

Seibold

February 1997

We usually regard our Earth as a symbol of solidity. To us, it is the soil on which we standfirmly with our two legs, the bedrock for our buildings and their reliable foundations. But thissolid bedrock is only a thin crust about 100 km thick. The material underneath, in the earth's
mantle, reacts plastically, like paste. In places where it reaches the surface, as in volcanoes, it
may even become fluid and flow out as lava. However, the mantle material as a whole is moving, too, if only by a matter of centimeters a year, dragging the brittle crust above it along with
it. Because of its movements in different directions the brittle part, called the lithosphere,
breaks into pieces of various dimensions.
The biggestof these, the so-calledplates, may move apart, as often happens underneaththe central parts of our oceans. At what is known as their divergent plate boundaries , thisresults in provinces of active volcanism and minor earthquakes, for example in Iceland. If theplates pass each other in a strike-slip fashion, earthquakes may occur, as around the San
Andreas Fault in California. In the convergent plate boundary regions, one plate normallyplunges underneath its neighboring plate and finally reaches the earth's mantle, where it isincorporated again. Many active volcanoes and some major earthquakes occur around these"subduction zones." The Pacific, for example, is surrounded by convergent plate boundaries
which form a volcanic "ring of fire."
For three decades, the theory of plate tectonics has enabled us to explain the origin anddistributionof many volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. It has also provided initial data which
can provide regional warnings of such natural disasters.
Projections suggest a global population of more than 10 billion for the beginning of thenext century.From a regional point of view, this number is even more dramatic than when seenin the global context because humans tend to concentrate in urban agglomerations. Growing
cities need more and more underground pipelinesfor energy, water, and traffic.Therefore they
become increasingly vulnerable to earthquakes. In Greek antiquity the City, or Polis, was a
symbol of protection against life-threatening situations.Today, things are becoming different.
Many of these agglomerations are situated near convergent or strike-slip plate boundaries(Fig. 1) and nearly all major losses of life from earthquakes are concentrated there (Fig. 2).
Risk
FigureMaps
2 presentsa kind of risk map.

Its large

scale is , of course,

unsuitablefor detailed

plan-

115

c•-• its
r2

5-\\

•

•

0

•
•

•

• P,1

7,-• .

;„
4 '

\• \

•

0

/

•
•

)•

•

Figure 1 Distribution of cities with a projected population of two million or more in the year 2000. Bold
resent converging or strike-slip boundaries, explained in the text.
r----,

lines rep-ti---7,,,„,)

4."..-1
,...
..)
(-‘,
....--------

...„,

(nr-

• ',./7\

1-7-- •„-Ar

1000-1987> 300,000
0•> 90,000> 9,000

Figure 2 Distributionof earthquakes
in the past 1,000 years in which more than 9,000 people
rences are located near plate boundaries.

died. Most occur-(Figures 1 and 2 after R. Bilharn-Cires, Nature, Vol. 236, 1988, pp. 625-6.)

ning and practical purposes. To be useful, risk maps must be constructed on a much, smallerscale. Factors that are morphological (e.g. slope stability), geological (fault patterns, occurrence of hard rocks or unconsolidated sediments from rivers, the sea or artificial infillings etc.)
or oceanographic (exposure of near-shore areas to tsunamis etc.) have to be combined with historical investigations into the locations and magnitude of former earthquakes. The situation in

116

,

)

-5

0

5

4
100

0

200

Cris

O

rd)
k'VZ

km

CD

ot-Di

•

......:
' .
:
..
• :1.

.f.((,
cloC).......'r
.1. 0

HORDA

EAST
SHETLAND

O

•;

A60

/ /WEST
SHETL
AND

1,%1

•

•

"-MORAY
FIRTH. BASIN

,

•

•.

•

Figure 3 Earthquake risks for offshore structures. Earthquakes between 1980 and 1985 with different magnitudes(circles) are concentrated near the west coast of Norway, especially near faults. The most important offshore platforms for the production of oil are situated in the shaded area.
(After E. Seibold, Enesselte Erde, DVA, Stuttgart, 1995, p. 141.)parts of the North Sea is illustrated
in Fig. 3. Only after such preliminary
studies can microzoning risk maps be constructed
as a base for land-use planningand detailed advice for sites
concerning

earthquake-resistantSimilarrisk maps

shouldstructures.
be madefor the environment

possible lava or pyroclastic
flows are especially1990 Unzen eruption
in Kyushu, Japan. Ashfalls
ing winds.

An example

is givenof active volcanoes.

dangerous,
as was demonstrated
are concentrated
in leeside areas

Valleyswithduring theof prevail-in Fig. 4.

Prediction of Natural Hazards
There is a curious antagonism in Earth sciences. Thanks to the relatively new theory of plate
tectonics we are able to define, on a global scale, the most dangerous regions where major
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions may occur, namely near plate boundaries. (Nevertheless,there are exceptions: both the catastrophic earthquake near New Madrid in the U.S. heartland
and the Cameroon volcano in Africa both happened within plates. These and similar occurrences cannot be explained simply by plate tectonics.)
In spite of the knowledge of plate tectonics,long-termpredictionsof earthquakesor volcanic eruptions are very difficult.Unfortunately,it still remains one of our biggest challenges to

117

(

••

0,‘0
OC' •s`cN
.
BIEI

S

sIN6bombs. boo

Mud f 1 ow

eiss
C30
Cert
TA
CSA°T
ER
TOKACHIKE••62-1I••••1CRATERra'DebrisgyAlanchg;;•:•::::

.•

. .re

••••

2

?2

*

,tit,

•.

.e

•

km

Figure 4 Risk map of Tokachi Dake volcano (Hokkaido, Japan). Mud flows (shaded areas) are threatening wide
areas. Limits of possible pyroclastic and lava flows are indicated. Prevailing westerly winds transport blocks,
bombs, and ashes mostly to the east.
(Made available by Yoshio Katsuo, Sapporo, 1992.)

forecastsuch eventsprecisely—where,when, and with what magnitudean earthquakeor eruption
will take place. Some pessimistseven believethat such forecastswill be possible only in exceptional cases. It is easier to forecastvolcanic activitybecause in this case we can concentrateour
effortson one spot, the volcano itself.Continuousmonitoringin the field from observatoriesor
evenfrom satelliteswith thermosensorshelps, and such volcanoesas Vesuvius,Etna, Kilauea,orMount St. Helen are excellentexamples of successfulpredictionsand even short-termforecasts.
Forecasting, if it is carried out well, is part of human self-protection. This was excellently demonstrated during the sudden 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in Luzon, thePhilippines. The volcano had been dormant for six centuries. However,careful observations,
together with a well-organizedalert system, mitigated loss of life dramatically.
Wrong forecasting results in public disappointment and fuels the criticism of science ingeneral, as was illustrated by the forecast of an eruption of the Souffriere volcano in
Gaudeloupe in 1976. Fortunately, the eruption did not occur—although 72,000 people were
evacuated in vain for several months. On the other hand, Colombian authorities failed totallyon the occasion of the catastrophe caused by the eruption of Nevada del Ruz, the most
northerly volcano of the Andes. They did not react properly to the justified warnings issued
before the eruption in 1985—and25,000 people were killed. Even so, scientists cannot always
decide which volcanoes-activeor dormant—are more dangerous, or whether active faults are
more conducive to earthquakes than dormant ones.
Predictions or even forecasts of earthquakes are much more difficult than for volcanic
eruptions. Earthquakes may occur anywhere in fault zones hundreds or even thousands ofkilometers in length. Up to now, all our efforts have had no convincing results except in somelucky instances. The usefulness as warnings of small precursor quakes or the often observed118•

pseudocyclicity
of earthquakes
at a given location have not proven to be reliable.
The same istrue of the use of geodetic as well as several geophysicaland geochemical
methods
and of theobservationof unusual

behavior

Why have the results

in animals.

of very intensive

predictions
been so disappointing
the influenceof fluids undergroundresearch

all over the world

up to now? The material
are different regionally.

and structural
In addition,plex systems are chaotic and imply all sorts of nonlinear
difficulties.
still many fundamental
gaps in our understandingof basic principles
way and how strongly
expand?

Which

do stresses

messages

they come to the surface?
other hand,moreaccumulate

from the earth's

in the earth's
mantleWhy are there fewerwith catastrophic

underneathdangerous

pyroclastic

crust?

to improve

earthquake

conditions
includingthese extremelycom-

What is worse,and processes.

How do fractures

a volcanoexplosions

are reliable?

there areIn what
form

and

How

do

with ash falls, but, on theflows?

Prevention
Even if science becomes much more successful
nizations, and public authorities

in predicting

natural disasters,

people, orga-must be better prepared to face them. Nature produces

earth-

quakes and volcanic eruptions and we can do nothing but react. We have to obey nature's laws
when planning suitable manmade structures and we must try to avoid settling in high-riskareas in spite of growing populations.

As in medicine, prevention

is better than cure. Therefore,

the siting of nuclear power plants, chemical factories, roads, schools and all other forms of concentrations have to be planned carefully on the basis of risk maps. Geotechnicalto improve hazard-resistantengineers havedesigns, following official building codes that must undergo con-tinuous improvement.
Of course, there are many other factors that surpass the competenceengineers,

as in the improvement

technical emergencies,of public educationin the adaptation

suitable financial measuresof legislationof scientistsorand plans to prepare for medical

andto such hazards or in the contrivanceofsuch as insurance schemes.

Increasing population

density increases not only risks in general, but also those specificrisks for scientists involved in studying this problem. In medieval times in Europe, natural hazards were treated as God's punishment.

Since the Enlightenment,

Fate. With growing

in some of the fields

inescapable.

Thereforescientificsuccessscientists will increasingly

God has been replaced
discussed,

be blamed if they are unable to give at leastan earlier or a more exact warning before a disaster. Thus, we have to continue
in order to arrive at a better understanding
tions. With this better knowledgeof the mechanismof earthquakes

basic researchand volcanic erup-

we can hope to improve ideas and methods

dictions. However, at present, it seems to me that multidisciplinary
ment of all sorts of prevention

bythings look lessapproaches

for better preto the improve-are even more important.

119Lecture

The Seafloor

as PartProfessorof OurDr. EugenEnvironment

Seibold

To the audience of a Blue Planet Prize lecture, it is well known that our Earth is the only planetwith fluid water and that this is the precondition for both our oceans and for life. Of course, it
is also known that the oceans cover more than two-thirds of our globe, of our blue planet.
This means that there are many interactions between sea and land environments.
Through evaporation, the oceans supply the remaining third of our globe, the land masses, withrain and snow. With their, currents, they transport heat from the equator to polar regions andinfluence the wind system. The oceans are therefore a weather machine controlling continental droughts or river floods, together with agriculture or traffic. In this way, they even influence
our daily life. Long-term variations in this dynamic system determine climatic fluctuations
with drastic consequences for our environment.
Oceans are as deep as our highest mountains are high. Ocean dimensions, including
their water masses, are huge. They correspond to 160 times the water and ice on land and to100,000 times the water in the atmosphere. Therefore, the oceans are buffers for all sorts ofvariations. They may store or release heat or carbon dioxide (CO2).
Most of these factors that characterize oceanic research require much comprehension on
the part of the general public up to the level of governments, and because humankind has
begun to influence some of these factors a number of relevant issues concerning the oceans
were defined in 1992 in Rio in .a 540-page document, Agenda 21. This came as a result of theUnited Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED).
The Third Blue Planet Prize Academic Award is given to a marine geologist, and I canonly accept this honor if I see myself as a representative of my many colleagues around theworld. What is a marine geologist? A marine geologist investigates the present situation of theseafloor and the processes which shape it. Furthermore, he tries to learn from the layers
beneath the seafloor, i.e., he tries to learn from the past. With this knowledge from the present
and the past, he has a responsibility to comment also on future developments if he is able to do
so with scientific reasoning, and I would like to stress this aspect.
With the following remarks, I shall try to illustrate some of these points with a few
examples from my own work during the last decades. I would like to invite you to come withme to the coasts, where I shall stress coastal management, then to the shallow seas with some
remarks about pollution, then to the continental margins with their potential petroleum
resources, and finally to the deep sea with its sediments as archives for historical climaticchanges. Let us go to the coasts.
CoastsFor two120

decadesafter

the endof World

War II, we had no oceangoing

research

vesselinGermany.
coastalTherefore,
regions.

interactions

we concentrated

In any case,ing equally
thereforelandscapes

becausethe atmosphere,

and currents

theirand with its many
populationis settled

they are shapedby processes

belong-and the lithosphere.

Water,

air, and rocks

and cause

erosion.

Theyor from rivers

To obtain

must

enthusiastic

divers,and observations

meters,ideallytask even for a country
Japan,

oceanic

for breeding

geologist

uses. But before

animals?

resources?

and otheriron, titanium,

can concentratethemaround the semicontinent.
How do placers originate?

in commonwith panning

is a problem

for fundamental

sand placers

alwaysof about

and therefore

of

prob-

27,000has muchminerals

sandy

kilo-

more

to

the consequences
behindthorium,

zirconium,

deposits.

India

demonstrate

can be expected

ice masses
offshore.

of different

potential

some

Of course,

15,000weathering
mineralsis famousin beachhelps

all other mineralconand ore

for such beachinvolved

studies.

towardhave much

Of course,

exploringattack dune sands,

years

and

Therefore,

and so on. Near-shore

has in mind that the sea level has risen by somecontinental

Use beachothers.

heavy

but the processes

but its investigationforProtectthe screen.

so-called

go into detail,for gold, as we could
research,

reactors?

for tourism?

use excludes

than someplaceristhe most

one dig out channels

from the coast of India. Tropicalgold, platinum,

I cannotmanagement

it is probably

like nuclear

beaches

one special

the processes

more

to so-calledthat coastal

Shouldindustries,

you apply this principle to beaches where monsoon waves
combinationof both is the optimum
for placer exploration.

of the hugeand one has towith the help

has only a few centimeters

will know

in examining

try to understandquartzA geologist

which

and a coastline

In fact, in such regions,cases,

like to give only one example,

processes

sands

especiallyand other coastal

islands

Or protect

In many

has to give advice

that he must

containing

tracerThese

the coast be developed?

destroy

particles

comingall these measurements

water-dependent

I would
ditionssand and mudand models.

per inhabitantcountries.

Establish

marineas mineralbeharborone has to combinewith such questions

How should

ships and harbors?

the marine

currents,

like. Germany,of coastline

for developing
aspect.

can also

Of course,than we do in Germany.

who is concerned

importantsands

one useswith its 3,600

23 centimeters

importantlagoons

data,calculations

even mote

For them,

indicating

Furthermore,management

Everyonefor bed forms

students.

has aboutcoastalbars, as in the Baltic.

transport.

or even quantitative

carefully

per inhabitant.

do with coastal

this type of sandwith hydrodynamic

lems are an immenseof coastline

offshore

is a kind of pollution.

qualitative

the sea bottom

be destructive

sand and forming

have to fight against

from offshore

observemayin transporting

authorities

melting

at the coasts

It is said that 80% of the world's

Sea andthe shores.

are very peculiar

to the hydrosphere,

Waves

placers

beginsSea and Baltic

be studied.

constructiveduneon the Northenvironment

inland.

zone along

The coasts

biggerthe marinewith the neighboringin the 50-kilometerour efforts

like in India.

100 metersago. Therefore,
resources,

thisplacers

if
The

since

the

formerbeach

includingoil andgas, are also productsof concentration
by nature to be studied by geologists.
We know as well that at present the sea level is rising in most regions

by somemil-

121

limeters

per year—herein Japan,warming,a dramaticthreat for lowlands

these

aspects

today.

Now

too—andthat this rise can be accelerated

and many

let us go to the second

islands.

chapter,

But it would

by further

globallead us too far to treat

the shelf seas.

Shelf seas
Offshore we enter the so-called shelf sea with water depths up to about 200 meters. Here weneed well-equipped ships and special instruments to study morphological features of theseaflooror to recover sedimentsand organic remains from the surface or from cores in the sediments. For example, underwater side-scan echo sounders reveal details down to the centimeter, such as ripple marks and other current indicators, where you have an indication that thebottom current is flowingthis way or that way,or not at all. In order to obtain large-volume sediment cores for the distributionof samples to all interested specialists, at the University of Kiel
we developed the box corer. It was emphasized yesterday that one of my specialties was toalways stress interdisciplinary approaches for solutions to problems. Interdisciplinary meansthat one needs a lot of material, and thereforewe developed this special sampler, the box corer.
Trying to approach environmental problems, I concentrated for years on the comparison between the Baltic Sea and the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. Both are adjacent seas to the great
oceans and are enclosed by land masses. Therefore, land climate dictates many processes inthese marine environments.
The seas in the arid climatic belt, characterized by excess evaporation,have a common
and typical exchange pattern with the open ocean: shallow water flows in ,and deep water flows
out. Typical examples are not only the Gulf, but also the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.
Here the loss of water by evaporation greatly exceeds the influx from rain and rivers.
Thus, the sea level drops and water enters from the open ocean at the surface to replace thelosses in the basin. Evaporationin the basin increases the salinity,and therefore the density of
the water, which makes it sink. This sinking is a motor for outgoing currents of heavier deep
water, flushing out many kinds of pollution.
The reverse situation can be studied in the Baltic, Black Sea, and in northern fjords:
shallow water flows out and deep water flows in, because here rain and river influx exceed
evaporation.
One of the consequences of the influx of heavier, saltier bottom water to the Baltic is arelatively stable stratificationof the adjacent sea water column, preventing oxygen from the air
reaching the deeper parts where hydrogen sulfide (H2S), a poisonous gas, can develop and killeverything.Pollution by sewage discharge from about 20 million people and industrial wastes,
together with fertilizers from agriculture, increase organic productivity and therefore deepwater oxygen deficiency—a continuous threat to surface waters and the organisms in them,because H2S can reach the surface when there are storms.
I would like to bring just one example from our fieldwork to your attention. These areinvestigations in the channels of the North Sea going to the western part of the Baltic. Here,
we were able to investigate the sea bottom to discover current indicators. These current indicators show both the bottom-water influx and the outflow of surface water in shallow areas.
Now let us go to the continental margins.

122Continental margins
The continental margin begins with the shelf. We continue on, crossing the continental slopeand descend to water depths of about 4,000 meters, where the deep sea, strictly speaking,begins. I would like to stress only one aspect, the opportunitiesfor finding offshore oil and gas
underneath our continental margins.
Continental margins are the dumping sites for the debris coming from the continents.
Therefore, they may collect sediments of thicknesses surpassing 10 kilometers. Furthermore,these sediments contain a high proportion of organic matter because of the high productivityof the oceanic regions around the continents. Both facts favor the formation of oil and naturalgas. This formation and the migration to reservoir rocks require higher temperatures underground and some time in geological dimensions:A sediment cover of one to two kilometers is
generally necessary for these processes to happen. As the sediment cover of vast parts of the
deep sea is too thin and also too young, more than 80%—and that is a very important figure—of the oceanic seafloor offers no chance for exploration of oil. This very disappointing figureof 80% is deduciblefrom the concept of plate tectonics, a rather new concept of how the ocean
and the ocean crust are formed which I cannot treat here today. This is one of the exciting consequences of the application of an academic hypothesis, and it clarifies important aspects ofglobal energy resources.
Plate tectonics also sheds light on the character of Japan's continental margin, the natureof which causes many problems. It is a so-called active margin shaping your environment inmany respects. A lithospheric plate sinks beneath another one, accompanied by earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, and extreme disturbances of the sediments there. This plate is sinking
down underneath Japan, and in this region earthquakes occur, and when going deeper everything is melting, and you get the Fujis here on your islands. The Japan Sea is a very complicated area upon which I will not touch too much now.
Now why is it so disappointing for oil companies? First of all, all these movements
below are very complicated and create complicated structures, as we could see in the Nankai
Trough of Japan between Shikoku and Honshu in a 1990 drilling expedition on the vessel
Joides Resolution. In addition to that, unfortunately,potential sandy reservoir rocks here aremostly cemented and offer insufficientpermeability for oil. This is because these sands are of
volcanic origin and therefore chemically very reactive. There are a lot of negativepoints for oil
exploration around Japan.
In 1975,I worked as co-chief scientist aboardthe drill ship Glomar Challenger off West
Africa, a typically passive continentalmargin. In all types of passive continental margin, thicksediments, a succession of possible source and reservoir rocks like porous sandstones or cavernous limestones, and many other positive features come together. However, I would prefer
not to go into more detail, but rather to add some general remarks.
At present, world production of oil is about 3.15 billion tons annually. Around 30%
comes from offshore. A total for potential global resources, as well as reserves, is hard to estimate. World resources may reach 200 to 300 billion tons of oil. As opposed to this, world
reserves of producible petroleum under the prevailing economic and technological conditions

123

are estimatedto reach

As a geologist,at present,

only about

135 billion

I am not stressing

they are goodfor only sometons.

the so-called
43 years,staticgivenlife expectancy

the provenof the oil reserves;

reserves

dividedby annualproduction.
But of course, geologists
and geophysicists
are talented and will find new reserves,and therefore
it will last longer. As a geologist interested
in much longer time spans, I can calculatethat natureneededBy an orderof oil annually:
incrediblyof magnitude,

if you divide

low figure

tons a year. Therefore,
guiltymillions

nature300 billionof an annual

to accumulate

over a period

thesenaturalresources.

of time collected

tons, for example,
production

this ratio is very bad—about

only someby 150 million

of 2,000

tons. And

1:1,500,000

years,

2,000

countries

with energy

you can even convert

becauseshouldit is too costly

be top priorities
sea water

get thewe use threebillionor 1:2,000,000.

on our problem-solving
into freshand not energy-efficient,water

globalfor irrigation.

but in principle

tons

you

We are thusof incredible
exploitation,even robbery, without an eye to future generations.
Even more generally
speaking,
for me the energy supply for both the industrialized

developing

course,of years

agenda.

and

BecauseIt is nonsense,of

you can do it. Now let

us go to the deep sea.

Deep sea
I would like to demonstrate that deep-sea sediments are excellent archives for environmental
changes, and with modern methods we can even make up for some losses or disturbances of
the archive pages. Here, I concentrate on only one aspect, on rhythmicity in many sequencesof deep-sea sediments, as in deep-sea drilling cores off West Africa. This alternation is asequence between whitish layers, i.e., layers rich in calcareous particles, and darker ones , calledmarls with higher quartz and clay mineral contents.
How can we explain these sequences? There are many possibilities. In a detailed analysis, we were able to prove that here the most important factor was different dissolution of calcareous particles and, additionally, that the periodicity of the fluctuations was around 40;000
years. This was the situation in the Atlantic some 15 million years ago. Fluctuation at that time
was mainly controlled by processes in high latitudes; around Antarctica and in the northernmost Atlantic and in the Arctic Ocean.
Climatically, the Atlantic is the most sensitive ocean because it is connected with bothpolar seas. The Pacific, on the other hand, is separated from the north by the Bering Strait,
which is too shallow for deep-water exchanges.
However, much more sophisticated methods used during the last few decades disclosed
truly revolutionary relations between deep-sea sediments and climatic oscillations. One uses
tiny organisms like foraminifera whose tests consist of calcium carbonate, CaCO3. They contain oxygen which is taken from sea-water. The ratio of oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 indicatesmainly the volume of ice masses stored at any given time, i.e., in colder or warmer phases, on
the continents during the last two to three million years, the so-called ice age.
From a deep-sea sediment core, which is over 10 meters long, one can give a summarized survey of the last 400,000 years. I included an example in a textbook translated into
Japanese eight years ago because it looks to me like a musical score with its rhythmic and124melodicvariations.

curves,downs

One can easily

are colder

phasescalled glacials,

lower

downs

Fortunately,at present

we live in an interglacial.

that in somemillennia

we shall approachsea level because

The summary

curvesalso reveal

aspects

discussed

at present

can thesebeing

fluctuations

a boundary

cyclessmallerphasesof the ice masses
Seen geologically,a new glacial

In thecalled interglacials.

storedon the continents.

it looks

reasonable

to sayphase.

ups and downs.

for possible

for this period.

futureBut let us stressclimatic

only one of thefluctuations:

How quickly

occur?

In a sediment
found

100,000-year

and ups are warmer

Additionally,

many

mean

see prominentcore from the Atlantic
betweengreenish

off West Africa,and greyish

colors.

in about a 5.5-meter

It marks

core depth

the beginningweof the last inter-glacial, some 140,000 years ago. The boundaryis very sharp. Therefore,
the transition probably took only some centuries
to happen. The core was taken on Meteor Cruise 25 in 1971.
Since then I have emphasized
the systemfuture,is nonlinear.

We should

too, if we approach

peraturesor growing
Indeed, many
two Greenlandof severalof theseminor

Hopefully,

variations

massesThousands

oceansglobally.

that suchto these results,

centigrade

may

occur

rapid

systemchangesfactors.

can be because

could

An increase

Japanese

Antarcticchanges.

that theseWe havechanges

to deal withwhich

store such huge amounts
mayelapseThis is reassuring

drilling

beforesoil erosion,

term variations

and countermeasures

Antarctic

can add muchoccur

in theof globaltem-or river pollutionthat temperature
But as yet mostice core Vostok.
new information.

I have been pointingchangesof the oceanicof heat and which

relevant

for us on one hand,on land with landslides,

believea few decades.

in the Russian

ice-coreof yearsprevailour colleagues

even withinhave not been discovered

the planned

tions.

in mindof our climaticfor one or several

Accordingdegreesare atmospherichuge waterbear

a threshold

But we have to keep in mindcores

such transitions

CO2 contents may be examples
of such factors causing climatic change.
more and partly extremely
rapid variations
were recently discoveredinice cores.

changes

how rapid

climatic

but alarming
is directly

may therefore

comebufferchangesout in theseicesystem,withall sorts of varia-

are to be felt in theon the other. Devastation

visible.

In our oceans,long-

too late.

Conclusions
But now back to marine geology, back to going aboard, and back to the many different feelings evoked by the vast oceans. Of course, cool, sober, objective oceanography and marine
geology are only one part of the approach to the seven seas and to our blue planet. We cannot
leave out emotion.Thomas Mann once observed that "the sea is not landscape; it is expressionof eternity,of nothingnessand death, a metaphysicaldream." Accordingto Paul Valery,"a lookat the sea is a look at the possible."
I identify more closely with Valery's vision. Also, I appreciate the atmosphere aboard a
research vessel, as did Henry Stommelof Woods Hole in the United States, the pioneer of Gulf
Stream research, who wrote that "work at sea rubs off the sharp edges and makes us better people. The ship becomes a home away from home." This statement implies many facets even of
the ocean itself. The ocean is a good teacher which deals with many different people, withmany disciplines, and with problems in space and time of very different dimensions.We have125

to measure ocean currents in meters per second, but the growth of deep-sea manganese nodules in millimeters per million years.
As a university professor I am a teacher, too. Therefore, I am grateful for a generally
friendly "teacher ocean" and for the fact that it can be mastered by many excellent ship crews.
I am grateful to all my exemplary teachers in science and to all friends and colleagues aroundthe globe, including those in Japan, who are giving me advice. But a good professor should
only be happy if he has students and collaborators who will surpass him in research. Looking
around in Germany and abroad I feel really happy that many of my former students are surpassing me in research. I am especially grateful to them as well.
Finally, I would like to give thanks to the people at home, away from my home at sea,
and first of all to my family.
In summary, I have tried to demonstrate some relationships between the seafloor and theenvironment from the coast to the deep sea and from the present to the past and possibly to the
future. But I had to select only very few mosaic stones from my own work and the work of theKiel team. These stones must represent reliable results. Only then can you use these stones to
put together at least the design of the whole mosaic. I suppose that the Blue Planet Prize wasgiven to me because I have always stressed the importance of careful and reliable investigations as a base for more general statements.
Of course, we all have to think globally, but just like in daily life we have to begin with
regional or even with local actions and investigations. The ocean, however, where everything
reacts with everything and where there are no real boundaries, offers better opportunities tothink globally than do the continents. What a challenge to unveil the secrets of the sea and whata chance to use some of the results and apply them to urgent problems of present and evenfuture global, regional, and local environments. Thank you very much.

126

Major Publications
Professor Dr. Eugen Seibold
Books
Seibold, Eugen. Der Meeresboden: Ergebnisse und Probleme der Meeresgeologie. Berlin:
Springer, 1974.
Seibold, Eugen and W.H. Berger. The Sea Floor—An Introduction to Marine Geology. Berlin:
Springer, 1982. (Russian edition 1984, Japanese edition 1986)
Seibold, Eugen and U. Von Rad, K. Hinz and M. Sarnthein. Geology of the Northwest African
Continental Margin. Berlin: Springer (1982).
Seibold, Eugen and J.D. Meulenkamp (editors). Stratigraphy Quo Vadis? AAPG Studies inGeology 16. IUGS Special Publication 14,1984.
Seibold, Eugen and W.H. Berger. Ono Okeana, Vredenic v morskuju geologiju, Moskva. Mir,
1984.
— .The Sea Floor—An Introduction to Marine Geology. (Japanese edition). 1986.
Seibold, Eugen. Das Gedeichtnis des Meeres. Munchen: Piper, 1991.
— .Marine Transgression und Regression—Ursachen und Folgen, Sitz. ber. Heidelberger
Akad. Wiss. Math. natw. Kl., 351-373. Berlin: Spinger, 1992.
Seibold, Eugen and W.H. Berger. The Sea Floor—An Introduction to Marine Geology, 2nd
Edition. Berlin: Springer, 1993.
Seibold, Eugen. Naturkatastrophen und ihre Vorhersage, Schriftenreihe E. Abbe Kolloquium
Jena, 7. Jena: 1994.
— .Entfesselte Erde—Vom Umgang mit Naturkatastrophen. Stuttgart: Deutsche Verlagsanstalt,
1994.
Seibold, Eugen and W.H. Berger. The Sea Floor—An Introduction to Marine Geology, 3rd
Edition. Berlin: Springer, 1996.
ArticlesSeibold, Eugen. N. Jb. Geol. Palliont., Abh., 92 (1950), 243-366.
— .N. Jb. Geol. Pal:dont., Abh., 93 (1951), 285-324.
— .N. Jb. Geol. Paltiont., Abh., 95 (1952), 337-379.
— .N. Jb. Geol. Paleiont., Abh., 96 (1953), 357-374.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. N. Jb. Geol. PalNont., Abh., 98 (1953), 28-86.

Seibold,Eugen.Z.dt. Geol.,105(1954).
— .Geologische Karte von Mitteleuropa., Schulatlas. Stuttgart: Klett.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. N. Jb. Geol. PaleionL, Abh., 101 (1955), 91-134.
Seibold, Eugen. N. Jb. Geol. Paltiont., Mh. (1955), 278-297.
— . Geol. Jahrbuch, 70 (1955), 577-610.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. N. Jb. Geol. PaltionL, Abh., 103 (1956), 91-154.
Seibold, Eugen. Erdol und Kohle, 11 (1958), 296-300.
— .Geol. Rundschau, 47/1 (1958), 100-117.

127

Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. N. Jb. Geol. Paltiont., Abh., 109 (1960), 309-438.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. Ecologae Geol., Hely. 51 (1958), 729-737.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. Micropaleontology,6/3 (1960), 301-306.
Seibold, Eugen and Einsele. Jb. Geol., Landesamt Baden-WUrttemberg,4 (1961), 183-264.
Seibold, Eugen, Dill and Walger.Meyniana, 11 (1961), 82-96.
Seibold, Eugen. Geochimica et Cosmochim,Acta, 26 (1962), 899-901.
—.Sedimentology,1 (1962) 50-74.
Seibold, Eugen. Progress in Oceanography, 1 (1963), 1-70.
— . "The Sea." In Lehrbuch der AllgemeinenGeologie, edited by R. Brinkman, 1964.
— .N. Jb. Geol, Paltiont., Abh., 120 (1964), 233-252.
— .Baltica, 2 (1965), 139-166.
Seibold, Eugen, G. Dietrich, G. Krause and K. Vollbrecht.Meteor-Forschungsergebnisse, A,
1 (1966), 1-45.
Seibold, Eugen, C.D. Muller, K.H. Nachtigal, H.E. Reineck and K. Vollbrecht.
ForschungsstelleNorderney, XVI (1964), 143-201.
Seibold, Eugen, H.E. Edgerton, K. Vollbrecht, and F. Werner. Meyniana, 16 (1966), 37-50.
Seibold, Eugen. Revue de Geographic.Physique et de Geologie Dynamique (2), II, 5 (1967),
371-384.
Seibold, Eugen and W. Giesel. Meteor-Forschungsergebnisse,C. 1 (1968), 53-75.
Seibold, Eugen. Beih. Geol. Jb., (1969), 207-224.
Seibold, Eugen and K. Vollbrecht.Meteor-Forschungsergebnisse,C. 2 (1969), 29-56.
Seibold, Eugen and H. Closs, G. Dietrich, G. Hempel and W. Schott. MeteorForschungsergebnisse,A, 5 (1969), 1-71.
Multiple Authorship. Global Ocean Research: A Report Prepared by the Joint WorkingPartyon the ScientificAspects of International Ocean Research. La Jolla, 1969,1-54.
Seibold, Eugen and J. Ulrich. Meteor-For,schungsergebnisse,C. 3 (1970), 1-14.
Seibold, Eugen. Chemie-Ing.-Techn.,42,23 (1970), 2091-2103.
— .Geol. Rundschau, 60 (1970), 73-105.
Seibold, Eugen and K.O. Emery. "Introduction." In The Geology of the East Atlantic
Continental Margin, edited by F. Delany, 1-2. London: Inst. Geol. Sciences Report,
1970-1971.
Seibold, Eugen, M. Hartmann, H. Lange and E. Walger. Meteor Forsch. Ergebnisse, C. 4
(1971), 1-76.
Seibold, Eugen. Sedimentation of Marine Organisms, Introduction Proc. Joint Oceanogr.
Assemblies (Tokyo 1970), 1971,280-281.
Seibold, Eugen, N. Exon, M. Hartmann,F.C. '<ogler, H. Krumm, G.F. Lutze, R.S. Newton and
F. Werner. Sedimentology of Parts of Central Europe: Guidebook. 209-235. Frankfurt:
VIII Int. Sediment. Congress, 1971.
Seibold, Eugen, G.F. Lutze and B. Grabert. Meteor Forsch. Ergebnisse, C. 6 (1971), 21-40.
Seibold, Eugen. UNESCOEarth Sciences, 6 (1971), 153-155.
— .SedimentaryRegimes at Continental Margins and in Abyssal Cones in the Indian Ocean.
Section 8. Montreal: 24th IGC, 1972.

128

— ."Sedimentationin the Persian Gulf." In Sympos.Ind. Ocean Adjacent Seas No. 297 Sed. IX,
edited by G. Silas, 7. Cochin, India: 1971.
Seibold, Eugen, J. Esteoule, J. Esteoule-Choux and M. Melguen. C.R.Acad. Sc., 271 (1970),
1153-1156.
Seibold, Eugen, F.C. 'Ogler and K.H. Veit.Kommissionder Europtiischen Gemeinschaften,
EURISOTOP,(1972), ITE-75-D, 416/I11/72-D.
Seibold, Eugen. Meteor Forsch. Erg., 10 (1972), 17-38.
— .Revue de Geographie Physique et de Geologie Dynamique (2), XIV, 2 (1972), 99-106.
Seibold, Eugen and B.H. Purser. "The Principal Environmental Factors InfluencingHolocene
Sedimentation and Diagenesis in the Persian Gulf." In The Persian Gulf, edited by B.H.
Purser. Berlin: Springer, 1973. •Seibold, Eugen, L. Diester, D. Fiitterer, H. Lange, P. Miiller and F. Warner. "Holocene
Sediments and Sedimentary Processes in the Iranian Part of the Persian Gulf." In The
Persian Gulf, edited by B.H. Purser, 57-80. Berlin: Springer, 1973.
Seibold, Eugen. "Biogenic Sedimentation of the Persian Gulf." In Ecological Studies,Analysis
and Synthesis,3, edited by B. Zeitzschel, 103-114. Berlin: Springer, 1973.
Seibold, Eugen, R.S. Newton and F. Werner.Meteor Forsch. Erg., C. 15 (1973), 55-77.
Seibold, Eugen. Erdoel-Erdgas-Zeitschrift, 89,361-369.
— .Geol. Rundschau, 62/3 (1973), 641-684.
Seibold, Eugen, K. Hinz and G. Wisernann.Meteor Forsch. Ergebnisse., C., 17 (1974), 67-73.
Seibold, Eugen. Nachr. Dt. Geol. Ges., 9 (1974), 31-38.
Seibold, Eugen and G. Siedler.Meteor Forsch. Ergebnisse.,A. 14 (1974), 1-12.
Seibold, Eugen, K. Hinz and G. Wissman. INTEROCEAN '73 Kongress-Berichtswerk, 1(1973), 24-32.
— . "The Sea." In Lehrbuch der AllgemeinenGeologie, 2nd Edition, edited by R. Brinkmann,
290-511.1974.
Seibold, Eugen and K. Hinz. "Continental Slope Construction and Destruction, West Africa."
In The Geologyof Continental Margins, C.A. Burk and C.L. Drake, 179-198.1974.
Seibold, Eugen, M. Hartmann, M. Sarnthein, and E. Walger (editors). Special maps inGeological-Geophysical Atlas of the Indian Ocean. Moskau: Internat, Indian Ocean
Exped., 1975.
Seibold, Eugen. Naturwissenschaften, 62 (1975), 321-330.
Seibold, Eugen, Y.Lancelot and ShipboardParty Leg 41 DSDP.Geotimes,July (1975), 18-21.
Seibold, Eugen and K. Hinz. Meteor Forsch. Ergebnisse., C. 25 (1975), 47-80.
Seibold, Eugen, L. Diester-Haass, D. Fiitterer, M. Hartmann, F.C. Kogler, H. Lange, P.J.
Milner, U. Pflaumann, H.J. Schrader and E. Suess. Cienc., 48 (1976), 287-296.
Seibold, Eugen. DRG-Mitteilungen3/77 (VortragJahresversammlung der DFG 1977), 10-16 .
— .Leopoldina, 3,21 (1975), 219-245.
Seibold, Eugen and Y.Lancelot. Initial Reports of the Deep Sea Drilling Project, v. XLI, XVI1259.Washington,D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.
Seibold, Eugen. Episodes, 4 (1978), 3-8.
— .Rheinisch-WestfalischeAkd. Wiss.,283 (1979), 49-100.

129

—.Micropaleontology,24/4 (1978), 407-421.
— .Interdisciplinary Science Reviews,4 (1979), 269-278.
Seibold, Eugen. "Climate Indicators in Marine Sediments off Northwest Africa: A Critical
Review."In Paleoecology of Africa, 12., edited by M. Sarnthein and P. Rognon 175-187.
Rotterdam: A. Balkema, 1980,.
— . "Non-Living Marine Resources." BRUUN Memorial Lecture 1979, IOC-UNESCO(1980), 7-14.
Seibold, Eugen. General Proceedings of the 26th International Geological Congress, (1980),
64-67.
Seibold, Eugen and K. Hinz. "Passive Continental Margins: NW Africa, North Atlantic, NWAustralia." In Mobile Earth, edited by H. Closs et al., 127-138. Boppard: Boldt, 1980.
Seibold, Eugen and A. Etzold. Geologische Karte von Baden-Wiirttemberg 1:25000, 7126,
Aalen (1981).
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. Jb. Geol. Paldont, Abh., 162/1 (1981), 1-56.
Seibold, Eugen. Marine mineralischeRohstoffe. In Internat. KongressMeeresbergbau, editedby H.G. Stalp, 4-14. Essen: Vulkan, 1981.
—.Interdisc. Sc. Rev.,7/5 (1982), 261-263.
— .Universitas 37, Jg. Heft 11 (1982), 1139-1143.
Seibold, Eugen and D. Ritterer. "Sediment Dynamics on the Northwest African Continental
Margin." In The Ocean Floor, edited by R.A. Scrutton and M. Talwani, 147-163. London:
J Wiley & Sons, 1982.
Seibold, Eugen. Chemie i.u.Z., 16 (1982) 175-185.
— .Reun. Cons. int. Exploit, Mer 180 (1982), 315-322.
Seibold, Eugen and C. Schneider.In Forschung in der BundesrepublikDeutschland, edited by
C. Schneider,907-942. Weinheim:Verlag Chemie, 1983.
Seibold, Eugen. Natur and Museum, 113 (1983), 262-277.
— .Impact of Science on Society,3/4 (1983), 255-269.
— . "Present and Future Marine Science." In Colloquyon Oceanography—Conclusions,6-13.
Strasbourg. Council of Europe, 1983
— . "Mineral Resources of the Oceans and the Third World." In PANGEA, 1 (1983), 5-10.
Seibold, Eugen and M. Sarntheim. "Climatic Indicators in Margin Sediments off Northwest
Africa." In Studies in Continental Margin Geology, AAPG Memoir No. 34, edited by J.S.
Watkins and C.C. Drake, 643-648.1983.
Seibold, Eugen. Terra cognita, 4/1 (Winter 1983-1984), 5-7.
—.A report on an inquiry by the ScientificCommitteeon Oceanic Research and the Advisory
Committee on Marine Resources Research for the Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commissionand UNESCO1984, 9-11.
— .Episodes, 7/3 (September 1984), 3-7.
— .UMSCHAU1984, Heft 21,622.
Seibold, Eugen. Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 10/1 (1985), 22-26.
— .Science:Reprint Series, 228 (April 1985), 273.
— .Phys. Bl., 41/5 (1985), 113-116.

130

- . "Solid Earth and Global Change: Examples for Research across Disciplines." In Global
Change, edited by T.F. Malone and I.G. Roederer, 356-363. Ottawa: Proceedings
Symposium ICSU, 1984.
- . "Marine Science at the Dawn of the Year 2000." In Managing the Ocean: Resources,
Research, Law, edited by J.G. Richardson, 331-347. Mt. Airy, Maryland: Lomond, 1985.
- .Fordern durch Fordern. Ein Fazit. Weinheim: Verlag Chemie, 1985.
Seibold, Eugen and H. Behr. "German Approaches to Continental Deep Drilling." In
Observation of the Continental Crust through Drilling, Proceedings of the International
Symposium Held in Tarrytown,May 20-25,1984, edited by C.B. Raleigh, 6-15. Berlin:
Springer, 1985.
Seibold,Eugen. "Geologie im Umbruch." In Zeugen des Wissens,edited by H. Maier-Leibnitz,
379-431.1986.
- .Issues in Science and Technology3, (Fall 1986), 11
Seibold, Eugen. Interdisc. Sci. Rev., 11/2 (1986), 105-106.
Brunsau, A.A., C. Freeman, E. Seibold, and S. Tomner. "Examiners Report." In Reviews of
National Science and TechnologyPolicy, 85-117. Netherlands: OECD, 1987.
Seibold, Eugen. "New Results in Geological Sciences." In 27th Intern. Geol. Congress,
General Proceedings, edited by E.A. Kozlovsky.Moscow: Vneshtors Gizdat, 1987.
- . "Ocean Drilling: Ready to Leap and Strike." In Report of the Second Conference on
ScientificOcean Drilling (COSOD II), 351-357. Stuttgart:JOIDES-ESF, 1987.
- .Naturwiss. Rdsch., 41/9 (1988), 351-357.
- .Nova Acta Leopoldina, N.F. 53,244 (1987/88), 133-157 and 211-219.
- .NERCNews, Swindon, July 1988,13-17.
- .The Role of Scientific Organisations: Proc. Conference "Beyond Frontiers-Science
Policy in European Perspective." Den Haag, February 20,1989,15-19.
- .Sci. Publ. Affairs, 4 (1989), 21-30.
- .Episodes, 4 (1989), 124.
- . "In die Tiefe, im die Weite." In Wiedie Zukunft Wurzelnschlug. Aus der Forschung der
BundesrepublikDeutschland, edited by R. Gerwin, 134-144. Berlin: Springer, 1989.
- . "Krusten-aufbrechen-WeltweiteAufguben der Geologie." In VierzigFahre Forschung inder BundesrepublikDeutschland, edited by G. Hempel, 35-43. Bonn: Fleischmann, 1989.
- .Akad. Wiss.Lit. Mainz 1949-1989, Wiesbaden (1989), 131-142.
Seibold, I. and E. Seibold. Geolog. Rundschau, 78/2 (1989), 441-2.
Seibold, Eugen. Engineering Geology, 29 (1990), 273-277.
- .Episodes, 13/3 (1990), 167-168.
- .Proc. First Internat. Conference Asian Marine Geology, Shanghai, 1988, 5-10. Beijing:
China Ocean Press, 1990.
Seibold, Eugen. Geol. Jahrb., A 127 (1991), Hannover,9-18.
- .Naturwiss., 78 (1991), 333-384.
Seibold, Eugen and H. Flohn (editors). Nova Acta Leopoldina, N.F. 277,195-211.
Seibold, Eugen. "L' avenir de la Geologic." In L'avenir de la Science,Academie des Sciences,edited by J. Hamburger,63-69. Paris: Dunod, 1991.

131

— . "International

Cooperation in the Context of University Research Activities." In
Conference Autonomia Universitaria etc. Lisboa, January 25-26,1990, edited by B.
Rodrigues, 153-161. Lisbon: Inst. Nac. Investig. Cientifica Lissabon, 1991.
— . Ciencia e Cultura, 43/2 (1991), Sao Paulo, 102-107.
— .Geowiss., 9/4-5, (1991), 183-164.
Emeis, K. C., B. Larsen and E. Seibold. "What Is the Environmental Capacity of Enclosed
Marginal Seas? Approaches to the Problem in the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas."
In Use and Misuse of the Sea Floor, 181-211.1992.
Siebold, Eugen. Gispri-Symposium, Tokyo, 1992.
— .Sitz. ber. Heidelberger Akad. Wiss. Math. Natwiss, Kl. 1992/5 (1992), 351-373.
Seibold, Eugen. Naturwiss. Rundschau, 46/2 (1993), 43-50.
— .Geowiss., 11/4 (1993), 130-136.
— . "Offensive and Defensive Geology in Our Environment." In Natural Resources andDevelopment, 37 (1993), 98-109. Tubingen: Inst. Sci. Coop.
— .Geowissenschaft, 11/5-6 (1993), 151-154.
— . "Wissenschaft im heutigen Europa." In Wissenschaft, Gesellschaft and Politische Macht,
edited by E. Neuenschwander, 141-153. Birkenhauser, 1993.
Seibold, Eugen. Interdisc. Sci. Reviews, 19/2 (1994), 140-148.
— . "The Seafloor as Part of Our Environment." Blue Planet Prize Commemorative Lecture.
Tokyo: Asahi Glass Foundation, 1994.
Seibold, Ilse and E. Seibold. Z. Dt. Geol. Ges., 146 (1995), 305-310.
— .Natur und Museum, 126/5 (1996), 141-152.
Seibold, Eugen and I. Seibold. Geol. Rundsch., 85 (1996), 403-408.

132

Profile

LesterFounder

Educationand presidentof the Worldwatch

and Professional

R. Brown
Institute

Activities

1955

B.A., Rutgers

1959

M.S.,

University

1959-69

U.S. Departmentof Agriculture

1962

Masterof Public

Administration,

1969-74

Senior

Fellow,

1974—

Founded

Universityof Maryland

Overseas

the Worldwatch

HarvardDevelopment
Institute,

University

Council
serving

as its president

throughthe present

As founder and president of the Worldwatch Institute,Lester R. Brown is responsiblefor oneof the world's leading private-sector think tanks focusing on global environmental problems.
Conducting some of the world's most innovative,relevant global environmental research , theInstitute has sounded the alarm on numerous environmental issues.
The Worldwatch Institute analyzes global environmental problems and proposes solutions, publishing its findings in a variety of reports. For example, in 1984 the Institutelaunched
its annual State of the World reports, which provide an insightful assessment of the world's
resources and how they are managed. Influencing politicians and corporate leaders worldwide, these publications have offered statistical and theoretical support to the global environmental movement.
Mr. Brown received his undergraduate degree in agricultural science from Rutgers
Universityin 1955,after which he spent six months in India with the International Farm YouthExchange Programme. In 1959,he received an M.S. degree in agriculturaleconomics from the
University of Maryland and entered the U.S. Departmentof Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural
Service. In 1969, he left government to help establish the Overseas Development Council,
where he remains a senior fellow.In 1974,Mr. Brown founded the Worldwatch Institute.

133

EssayThe Acceleration

The pace of change
overwhelm

not only fromeven fasterhuman

in our world

the management

demands
History

civilization

LesterR. Brown

is speedingup, accelerating

capacity

advancing

economicof politicaltechnology,
growthand the limitsof History*

leaders.

but also fromto the point

unprecedented

and the increasingly

frequentof the earth's

systems.

naturalis not about the status quo; it is about change.

began,

the agents

growth of population
Economic
expansionof change

workedwhere

This acceleration

slowly.

world

collisions

was so slow as to be imperceptible
duringwas similarly
sluggish.
But since mid-century,

to

comes

population

growth,betweenThroughout

Until recently,

it threatensof history

expandingmost of the time sincein historicalterms,

thean individual's
lifetime.
the pace of change has

been breathtaking.
Today,

it is difficultof us born before
duringtupledfour million

years

since mid-century

Water

for natural

has nearly

use has tripled.
sinceand for paper
fourfoldThese

has goneand carbon
spiralingnaturalupon

it rests. Evidence

which

witheringsystems.

fisheries,

heat waves

Evenlimitsaquifers,

and morewaterscarcity,

mentalrefugees.

time dealing
food

betweenforests,

As a result,shortages,

rate.

1950,

products,

that for lumberof fossil

Since

more
beef

than

and mutton,

has more
fuels

four

than dou-

has increased

are beginningto outgrow

the capacity

economyis damaging

the foundation

ecologicalinfrastructure

takes

the global

shrinkingforests,

erodingsoils, dyingofthe formlakes,

crop-

species.

of unprecedented

are creatingquin-

has increased

rangeland

to the earth's

tables,and disappearing

limitsfrequency.

more

water

has nearlyaccordingly.

for resourcesof damagethe collisionnaturalof fisheries,

increasing

demands

economyat a phenomenalof seafoodof six. The burning

have risenThoseoccurredstood upright.

has tripled,

As this happens,fallingas the effects

some governments,
the earth's

up by a factor

human

the earth'sof collapsing

demandemissionsthan

has grown

for the principal

Firewood

growth.

our lifetimes

and the global

Consumption

Demand1950.

population

duringsince our ancestors

resources

tripled.

of humangrowthhas doubled

has also tripled

nearlymagnitude

population

the precedingin size, the demand

times.

the sheer

As population

the need for grain

bled

to grasp

1950 have seen more

population

growththe expanding

additionalburdens.

rangelands,

and otherof the global

Collisions

with the sustainable

naturalpolitical

leaders

with thesecollisions

and their

destructive

to overwhelm

demands

nationalincreasingly

are threatening

systems

economyare occurringand the UN agencies

stormsconsequences:and swelling

and
yield
with

are spending

fishery

conflicts,

flows

of environ-* Excerpted from Lester R. Brown,"The Acceleration of History,"in State of the World1996, W. W. Norton & Co.,New York.

134

As the change in the relationship between our growing numbers and the natural systems
on which we depend accelerates the pace of history, the realization that we may be facing ashortage of food from both oceanic and land-based sources is a troubling one. Thoughtful
people reflectingon these trends are asking, Can we avoid catastrophe?The answer is yes, but
not if we keep sleepwalking through history.
Avoidingcatastropheis going to take a far greater effort than is now being contemplatedby the world's political leaders. We know what needs to be done, but politically we are unable
to do it because of inertia and the investment of powerful interests in the status quo. Securing
food supplies for the next generation depends on an all-out effort to stabilize population andclimate, but we resist changing our reproductive behavior and we refrain from converting our
climate-destabilizing,fossil-fuel-based economy to a solar/hydrogen-based one.
As we move to the end of the century and beyond, food security may well come to dominate international affairs, national economic policymaking and, for much of humanity, personal concerns about survival.There is now evidence from enough countries that the old formof substitutingfertilizer for land is no longer working that we need to search urgently for alternative formulas for humanely balancing our numbers with available food supplies.
One of the most obvious needs today is for a set of country-by-country carrying capacity assessments.Assessments using an interdisciplinaryteam can help provide the informationneeded to face the new realities and formulate policies to respond to them.
The growing gap between food demand and food supplies at familiar prices underscores the need for governmentsto assess their national carrying capacities so that they and thepeople they serve can understand the difficult choices that lie ahead. Now that the global fish
catch has leveledoff, we have a good sense of just how much food the oceans can provide sustainably.We now know roughly both how much land will be available for food production in
the future and, based on yields achieved by the most agriculturally advanced countries, what
the yield potential of that land is with existing technologies.Barring any new technologies thatcan lead to quantumjumps in food production, like the discovery of fertilizer or the hybridization of corn, the world is facing unprecedented difficultyon the food front.
On the demand side of the food-populationequation, the information needed to calculate future carrying capacity for varying combinations of projected population size and consumption levels is now available. These carrying capacity assessments can help people understand more clearly the difficult choices to be made between family size today and foodconsumptionlevels tomorrow.They will help everyonebetter understand the trade-offbetween
the reproductive rights of the current generation and the survival rights of the next.
The lack of growth of the world grain harvest since 1990 coupled with the continuing
growth in world population and the increased likelihood of crop-damaging heat waves in theyears ahead at least carries the potential of severe food shortages.The economic disruption thatis likely to result could dwarf that when the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries
engineered a tripling in the world price of oil in 1973. People can survive without oil, but notwithout food. Oil can be replaced with other energy sources, but there is no replacement forfood.
No other economic indicator is more politically sensitive than rising food prices. If the135

grain shortage that will now continue at least until the 1996 harvest begins should continue
indefinitely, millions of low-income breadwinners could face food price rises that would
threaten the survival of their families. Food prices spiraling out of control could trigger not
only economic instability but also widespread political upheavals. Food scarcity could call into
question the legitimacy of numerous national governments that have failed to address thegrowing imbalance between human reproduction and food production.
The world today is faced with an enormous need for change in a period of time that is
all too short. Human behavior and values, and the national priorities that reflect them, change
in response to either new information or new experiences. When Nobel laureates Sherwood
Rowland and Mario Molina published their landmark article in 1974 outlining the threat to thestratospheric ozone layer from CFCs, they convinced many thoughtful people of the need tophase
out the use of these chemicals. But it was not until two British scientists discovered the"hole" in the ozone layer over Antarctica that the international movement to ban CFCs gained
enough strength to succeed.
The questions now are, What will be the climate equivalent of the hole in the ozone
layer? What will trigger a meaningful response? Will it be crop-withering heat waves so
intense that they create food shortfalls so massive that the resulting food price rises destabilize
the world economy? What will finally convince governments that unless population is stabilized sooner rather than later, falling food consumption per person will spread, engulfing aneven larger share of humanity?
The effort now needed to reverse the environmental degradation of the planet and ensurea sustainable future for the next generation will require mobilization on a scale comparable toWorld War II. As noted earlier, regaining control of our destiny depends on stabilizing population as well as climate. These are both key to the achievement of a wide array of social goals
ranging from the restoration of a rise in food consumption per person to protection of thediversity of plant and animal species. And neither will be easy. The first depends on a revolution in human reproductive behavior; the second, on a restructuring of the global energy system.
Serving as a catalyst for these gargantuan efforts is the knowledge that if we fail, ourfuture will spiral out of control as the acceleration of history overwhelms political institutions.
It will almost guarantee a future of starvation, economic insecurity, and political instability. It
will bring political conflict between societies and among ethnic and religious groups withinsocieties. As these forces are unleashed, they will leave social disintegration in their wake.
Effectively dealing with many of the issues now confronting humanity requires a strong
set of global institutions. In today's world, for example, with modern transportation and thecontinuous flow of people and other disease vectors across national boundaries, societies are
faced with entirely new diseases, ones to which people have little resistance and about which
the medical community knows too little. Among these new maladies are Lyme disease, which
was first identified in the mid-1970s in Connecticut and has now spread throughout the continental United States and into Western Europe; the AIDS virus, which is novi found worldwide
though it was unknown to the medical community just 15 years ago; and the Ebola virus foundin Zaire.

136

Disposing of toxic waste, protecting biologicaldiversity and managing oceanic fisheries
beyond the national 200-mile limits are but a few of the issues that depend on an international
approach. Climate stabilization, like protecting the stratospheric ozone layer, cannot be
achievedby societies acting unilaterally.Only a cooperative international effort will suffice, as
it did on the CFC issue. It was the leadership of the UN Environment Programme that led to
the Montreal Protocol and subsequent amendments that successfullyreduced the manufactureof the ozone-threatening CFCs.
Satisfying the conditions of sustainability—whetherit be reversing the deforestation of
the planet, converting a throwaway economy into a reuse/recycle one or stabilizing climatewill require new investment. Probably the single most useful instrument for converting anunsustainableworld economy into one that is sustainableis fiscal policy. At present, governments subsidize many of the activities that threaten the sustainability of the economy. They
support fishing fleets to the extent of some $54 billion a year, for example, even though existing fishing capacity greatly exceeds the sustainableyield of oceanic fisheries.In Germany,coal
production is subsidized even though the country's scientific community has been outspoken
in its emphasis on the need to reduce carbon emissions.
Partially replacing income taxes with environmental taxes is desirable for several reasons. One, income taxes discourage work and savings, which are both positive activities thatshould be encouraged. At the same time, taxing environmentally destructive activities would
help steer the global economy in an environmentallysustainable direction. Among the activities to be taxed are the use of pesticides, the generation of toxic wastes, the use of virgin raw
materials, the conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses and carbon emissions. The time may
havecome to limit tax deductions for Childrento two per couple: it may not make sense to subsidize childbearingbeyond replacement level when the most pressing need facing humanity is
to stabilize population.
The shift from income to environmental taxes would be revenue-neutral,but the elimination of huge subsidies for the use of fossil fuels or water, or for investment in fishing
trawlers, to citejust a few examples, would free up a vast sum of capital that could be used tofill the familyplanning gap, develop an energy- and land-efficienttransportation system, reforest the planet and educate young women in developing countries—a key to accelerating themove to smaller families. In addition to using tax policy to shift private investment to environmentally sustainableactivities, once it becomes clear that it is food scarcity rather than military aggression that threatens long-term political stability, public pressure will develop toreorder priorities in the use of public resources as well. Restructuring private investment
through fiscalpolicy shifts and public investment through an ordering of priorities that corresponds with today's needs can easily provide the resources needed to stabilize both populationand climate.
The challenge for humanity is a profound one. We have the information,the technology
and the knowledge of what needs to be done. The question is, Can we do it? Can a species thatis capable of formulating a theory to explain the birth of the universe now implement a strategy to build an environmentally sustainable economic system?

137

Lecture

Environmental
LesterAs the countries
Development

Revolution
R. Brownof the world were preparing

for the UN Conference

on Populationin Cairo in the early months of 1994, one of the questions

andthat was asked fre-quently concerned how many people the Earth can support. What is the Earth's carrying capacity? In order to answer that question, of course one has to consider other questions, because it's
not only how many people that matters, but also their standard of living and consumption
There are many ways in which the growth in human population
One could be continuallyaffects the prospects

worsening

pollution,levels.

could be constrained.

for example, until it reaches the point where it

for human survival, where it affects human health very directly. This isalready the case, for example, in the former Soviet Union. More than a year ago, the Instituteof Medicine

at the Russian Academy

health of the Russian
expectancy

of Sciences released

its first report on the state of thepeople. That report said that for the first time in modern

history, lifein Russia was declining. It said that 11% of the children born in the previous year

had birth defects. It said that 55% of school-aged

children had special health problems,that is,problems beyond the normal childhood diseases. Professor Vladimir Prokovsky, who was thehead of the Institute of Medicine and the senior author of that report, said that even if all pollution stopped immediately

in Russia, they would face deteriorating

health conditions

least the next 25 years. He said that 10% of the food supply was chemically
50% of the drinking

water in Russia was chemicallycontaminated.

for atcontaminatedand

He said the industrial

progress of the past 30 years has been bought with the health of the Russian people. And hesaid that they will be paying that cost for at least another generation.
I cite this as an example of one country that has experienced
ditions as a result of pollution, both chemical
do not, even in severe conditions

and radioactive.

a reversal in its health con-

But as we look at the world, wesuch as those in Russia, see pollution

emergingas the prin-cipal constraint on the number of people that the Earth can support. Could it be water scarcity
that will eventuallylimit the number of people?

Japan and particularlythat water could become
more plausible
immediate

I suppose

given this past summer

here inin Tokyo, when water was being imported by ship from abroad, the ideaa principal

constraint

on future population

growth might be a bit

than it was before this year. But we don't think that water is going to be an

constraint

on the growth of world population,in part because most of the water we

use is used to produce food. Of all the water that we withdraw
from rivers and other surface sources, two-thirds
used for residential

and industrial purposes,

We think the principal

constraint

from undergroundis used for irrigation.

aquifers and

The other one-thirdisand so on.

on the growth of world populationis going to be thefood supply. Now this is not a novel idea. As you know, Thomas Malthus presented

this idea

two centuries ago, so I don't take credit for it. But I do want to say that I think we are moving

138

into a period where the idea that food supply will not increase as fast as population is acquiring a reality that it has not had except for brief periods during the two centuries since Malthus
wrote his now famous book.
In looking at the food prospect, we see the emergence of three physical constraints onefforts to expand the world food supply: the limits of oceanic fisheries to supply fish; the limited amount of fresh water that is available;and, something that people do not think very muchabout, the physiological capacity of crop varieties—rice, wheat, and corn—to use fertilizer.
This is also a limit, a natural limit.
Let me talk about each of these briefly.With seafood, we have all lived during a period
when the world seafood catch has increased enormously.Between 1950 and 1989, the world
fish catch increased more than four times, 4.6 times to be exact, going from 22 million tons in1950 to 100 million tons in 1989.It was a remarkable period. The average person in the worldin 1989consumed 19 kilograms of seafood, compared with nine kilograms per person in 1950.
So the averageperson in the world doubled seafood consumptionfrom 1950 to 1989.And thensuddenly we hit the wall, so to speak. And the seafood catch has not increased at all over thelast five years; in fact, it has declined slightly from the 100 million tons in 1989 to between 97
and 99 million tons in the years since then. Because the total fish catch is no longer increasing,
the per capita seafood catch is declining as a result of population growth.
The marine biologists at the Food and AgriculturalOrganization in Rome report that all
17 oceanic fisheries are now being fished at or beyond capacity, and that nine are in a state of
decline. Some of them, I might add, are actually collapsing. The cod and haddock fishery off
the Canadian coast of Newfoundland has literally collapsed. We read a few days ago that the
New England fisheries for cod and haddock may also be closed by the U.S. government in aneffort to salvagethem.
I've just been talking to the vice president of the UN University in his office upstairs
about what's happening to the seafood catch. What will the economic consequences be of adeclining seafood catch per person as far as we can look into the future? One of the consequences is rising seafood prices. Thirty years ago people who could not afford meat ate
seafood. Certainly,that was the case in the United States. That's no longer true. If you go intoa fresh seafood shop in Washington,D.C., or New York, you don't see any poor people there.
The prices are too high. So we're seeing a change in the price of an important food product thatmuch of humanity depends on. I would point out that the world fish catch, at 100 million tons,
is equal to the world's production of beef and poultry combined. Now that will not surprisemost of you in Japan because of the extraordinarylevels of seafood consumption in this country. But in other parts of the world, the idea that the seafood catch equals the production of beef
and poultry does come as something of a surprise.
So we are pushing against the limits of the oceanic fisheries at a time when populationis 5.6 billion. But we're adding 90 million a year,which means that each year you and I as average citizens of the planet will have less seafood than we had the year before. What are the consequences of that economically, socially,nutritionally,politically? No one knows, because no
one has been analyzing this issue and looking at it with an eye to the future—a big gap in the
global research agenda.

139

We could talk about water.Water is becoming scarce in many parts of the world. In the
United States, we see water scarcity throughout the Southwest, in the states of California,
Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. We see water becoming increasingly scarce inthe southern Great Plains of the United States, one of the world's major wheat-growing
regions. In the southwesternUnited States,nearly all the water has now been claimed, whether
it's water from, say, the Colorado River, or whether it's underground water supplies.
Overpumping is now widespread in this region of the country. When the demand for water incities increases, they can satisfy it only by taking water away from agriculture, by buying theirrigation rights from farmers. Los Angeles, to get the water it needs, must now get it by taking it away from agriculture.
I havefamily in ranching in northern Colorado, about 70 miles north of Denver and eastof Fort Collins, if you know U.S. geography at all. And in that county, a couple of years ago
an agent came in and began buying irrigation water rights from farmers and ranchers, andeventuallybought the irrigationrights from a few hundred farmers. He was offering a price thatno one could resist, but no one knew who he was buying the water for until he had bought all
the rights, and then it was revealed that he was buying the water for a small city near Denvercalled Thornton, Colorado. They planned to build a 60-mile pipeline and take that water toThorntonto satisfythe needs of this growing city toward the end of this century and in the early
21st century.
That example has been repeated over and over again around the world. In Beijing,which is not a smallcity, the irrigationreservoirs around that city were once used by both farmers and the city.Recently, farmers were banned. They no longer have access to those reservoirs
in the agriculturalregion surroundingBeijing. They must now either go back to dryland farming, or they must drill wells and pursue the falling water table downward.
To finish with the United States, the Department of Agriculture reports that 21% of all
irrigated land in the United States is now being watered by drawing down underground watersupplies—by overpumping.In the southern Great Plains of the United States, this is the resultof relying on a fossil aquifer, an aquifer that was formed a long time ago in geological time,
and which is not today being recharged in any significant way. And so as it drops, eventually
farmers have to go back to dryland farming.
In China, a substantial share of the irrigated land is being irrigated by drawing down
undergroundwater tables, also. Almost all of northern China is now a water-deficitregion; thatis, it is using more water than nature makes available. And it is a water-deficitregion because
it is drawing down the underground water table. One of the interesting geological questions iswhat happens to a region like northern China when you keep depleting the underground watersupplies.What happens to the geologicalstructure, what happens to the aquifers, what happens
to the rechargepotential? It's an area, I think, that has not been researched in much depth, buteven one who's not a geologist can imagine that there will be some lasting consequences.
These are some of the questions that we need to be asking and trying to answer as wetry to respond to human needs for water that are growing far more than that which would be
required to supply the needs of 90 million additional people each year. Because as incomesrise, people consume more water.What happens to the demand for water as 1.2 billion people

140

in China begin to acquire indoor plumbing, showers and bathtubs, flush toilets, and runningwater in the kitchen? This may be one reason why 300 of the largest cities in China now arefacing water scarcity, 100 of them severe water scarcity.And I have to conclude that in mostcases, they will satisfy their future water needs, the deficits that are developing, by pulling
water away from agriculture. There is no other place from which to obtain it. Before I leave
China, one more point. As you probably know, because of an extreme shortage of water in
Beijing, questions are being asked as to whether it should be the capital of China permanently,
or whether the capital should be moved to the south, where there are at least adequate watersupplies. Another alternative is to move water from southern China, which still has a surplusof water, to the Beijing region with a long canal. This would be roughly 900 miles. It would beas though Washington,D.C., decided to get its water from the Mississippi River, 900 miles tothe west. This is a major civil engineering project that is in prospect for China to supply thewater needs of Beijing and Tientsin.
In India, water tables are now falling in several states because of overpumping. One of
the advances associated with the green revolution over the last few decades has been an
increase in the double cropping of wheat and rice. Throughout central and northern India,
many farmers grow two grain crops a year: they grow winter wheat, and in the summertime
they grow rice. Both crops are irrigated because the wheat is grown during the dry season. And
they have greatly increased their production. I helped draft 25 years ago the agricultural planfor India, which led to a doubling of its wheat harvest in seven years, a phenomenal advance.
Today,India is facing growing water scarcity and the prospect of cutting back on the amountof double cropping of wheat and rice because there is simply not enough water.
So water is emerging as a constraint on food production. I could talk about other partsof the world, but I've chosen to talk about the United States, China, and India because thesethree countries are the world's three leading food producers; together they produce nearly half
the world's grain.
If land is being irrigated by overpumping, by depleting the aquifer, then at some point
when the aquifer is finally depleted the amount of irrigation must be reduced. For example, if
the rate of irrigation pumping is double the rate of aquifer recharge, then when you finally hit
the bottom you have to reduce the amount of pumping by half, and that means a very substantial cutback in food production. So we're facing some real adjustments ahead on the water
front.
The third natural constraint that I mentioned, which has not gotten very much attention
compared with water, for example, is the physiological limits of crop varieties to benefit fromfertilizers.In 1847, a German scientist,Justus von Liebig, discovered that all the nutrients thatplants take from the soil could be returned in mineral form. It was a major discovery. If there
were a Blue Planet Prize then, Professor Seibold, he probably would have been the winnerinstead of you! Yes, he agrees. It was an exciting advancein our understanding of plant growthand nutrition and physiology, but we did not really take advantage of that knowledge until
nearly a century later. As recently as 1950, the world was using maybe 14 million tons of fertilizers. By 1989,it had reached 140 million tons, a tenfold increase. It was the growing use offertilizer that was the engine drivingthe growth in world food output over the last four decades.

141

It was fertilizer more than anything else that permitted the farmers on the land in 1950 to double their production within a generation.No generation of farmers in history had ever done that
before, but the world's farmers as a group between 1950 and 1980 doubled their harvest andthey are still increasing it.
Many of the things that we have done to increase food production over the last four
decades have really been designed to increase the use of fertilizer. The reason we irrigate is sothat we can use more fertilizer and increase yields. The exciting thing about the dwarf wheats
and rices—and that breakthrough came in this country a century ago—is that they can use
much more fertilizer than the traditional varieties, the traditional tall, thin straw varieties ofwheat and rice. One could easily triple the amount of fertilizer effectivelyused and increase theyield accordingly.
But since 1989, world fertilizer use has actually declined. In part, that's for agronomic
reasons, because in many countries using more fertilizer no longer increases production. So
production has leveled off. Farmers in the United States in the early '90s are using less fertilizer than they did in the early '80s, because using more fertilizer doesn't have much effect on
output. We could double fertilizer use in the United States next year, and you probably could
not see it in the production trend. It would be as though you and I decided that instead of eating three meals a day, which most of us do, we would eat six meals a day. It probably would
not increase our productivity very much; in fact, it might diminish it somewhat. Plants are living beings, too, and once you reach the limit of what they can do physiologically,then giving
them more fertilizer doesn't have much effect. If you and I were getting only one meal a day
and we suddenly were given two meals a day, then we would become much more productive.
And that's the way it was with crop varieties and fertilizers throughout most of the last four
decades. But suddenly we've reached the point where more fertilizer has little use. Fertilizer
use in Western Europe, Japan, and the United States today is no more than it was a decade ago;
the trend is basically flat. So that engine which has been driving the growth in food production
no longer works very well.
If we can't use more fertilizer, if we can't keep greatly increasing fertilizer use to boost
food production, where will the gains come from? How will we feed 90 million more people
each year? And the answer is, no one knows.
In talking just a bit ago with the vice president of the UN University, we were discussing the environment and the economy, and the environment and food production. I'm notgoing to spend more than a few minutes discussing this, but I would point out that soil erosion
is now a serious threat to the growth in food production in many parts of the world. It is especially a problem in developingcountries. One can hike around the highlands of Ethiopia today
and see abandoned villages that 10 or 20 years ago were productive.The reason they have beenabandoned is because there's not enough topsoil left to support even a subsistence-level agriculture, much less a market surplus-producing agriculture. The same is true in many of the
Andean countries of Latin America, for example. It's true for parts of Indonesia. I could go on
and on. Soil erosion is slowly undermining the long-term food prospects on probably 30% of
the world's cropland.
Another question is global warming. This summer was a very hot summer in Japan that142

affected

rates

of waterevaporation.

affect rice pollination.
for example.
drought,

If temperatures

In theUnitedour grain harvest

time in our history.
the breadbasket
its own needs.
300 million
and thenlargestit was possible,of the world

would

suddenlyof which

were

denly

those

drawn

there

would

in the worldthat can constrain
I think

it's foodthe food

prospects

future progressand destabilize

focus?

about.

I mentionedof 1988. That's
and I thinkdensely

populated

about

rapid

uses—building

terms.

A similar
thereof anotherBut

summerlike

for inadequate
creating

in the '60s and '70s,
So muchhighways,situation

exists in South

10 or 15 years

we see exactly

in the Unitedcall.

emergenceJapana modern

as a

grain

is suchconsumer

we had a country

where

a

land was lost to
production

is a good harvest

less than it was in 1960, or at least
the amountto bring

in that we have coun-

agriculturaletc.—that

this year, whichsummerbegins.

towardthingsand politically,

will happen

is China's

industrialization

purposes.

the various

be the wake-up

that is uniqueand movement

warehouses,

becausemaybe

As we look at China,

is, whatof a reality,

serious

Grain production

close to 40%

And this is simply

actu-

year, as you

somethingon that orderofof land loss has outstripped

the increase

in

Korea

and in Taiwan

for the same reasons.

after it did in Japan.

the same situation:a country

that is alreadydensely

it moves into the era of rapid industrializationand the establishmentof aeconomy. And so what we're looking at in China is the prospect of very sub-losses of croplandrise in land productivity,

over the next few decades,
leading

to an absolute

lossesdeclinein Japan,South

Korea,and Taiwan.

Japanalthoughit was almost

self-sufficientin rice, it importedof the wheat

and so in

to Japan.

overnight,

both economicallyand that would

a situationindustrialization

factories,

in absolutethe future

the possibility

beforefor industrialization

stantial

and in thinking

theand then sud-countries
almostof this as more

1950s and accelerated

populated
beforemodern consumer

reserves,

triplefeeding,

the world,

commitments,

importing

And the question

We have in East Asia

in thestartedenormous

exportor maybe

a possibility,

was used

The process

we had

among

human

began

land productivity.

for livestockaroundIf we had anotherpossibility,

is probably

mostlybeen rebuilt.

economymagnitude.

about

100 countries

not be able to satisfy

Japan's

know,

even

produceand they have neverWhenally declined

year

that

to satisfy

again including

a country.

non-farm

for the firstenoughcommitments,

competition

andWe typicallythat

Pricesheat

economy.

importer.

lot of croplandreserves.

exportat the long-termtries that are alreadynot producing

likedoubleissue into sharp

food

consumption

to satisfy

that we have to worry

Anothergraintons domestically,

wouldStates like the summer

massive

domestic

fortunatelyof grain.

In looking

we had record

Now

be intense

instability

will corn,whenreserves

down,

supplies

Neitherof 1988,also

at least I did not think it was possible,

tons to something

then we would

exportable

rice will not pollinate.

find itself

we use 200 million

is Japan.

of 1988,would

at that time we had enormous

100 million

effect we exported

hotter,

below

think

Fortunately,

if it got muchin the summer

in that year dropped

tons of grain,

the summer

get too high,States,We didn't

we export

reserves

But a very hot summer,

last year

so largein grainimported

that they will override

production,73%

as has happenedof its total grain

all feed grains

thefor livestock

supplies;and most

consumed.

It is one thing when a countryof 120 million

imports

77% of its grain. It is another

thing

143

when a country of 1.2 billion people begins moving in the same direction, and that's what
we're facedwith in China. Unfortunately,most of the analysts of world agriculturalsupply anddemand trends have overlooked this point. They have assumed that China's food production
will keep increasing steadily as far as we can see into the future. I don't think that is at all likely.
By an accident of history, China is beginning to expand its demand for food at a phenomenal
rate at a time when the world is beginning to press against some of the natural limits to thegrowth in food production. I mentioned the seafood catch, for example. In an earlier period
when population pressure built on the land in Japan, you turned to the oceans for your animal
protein on a large scale, and this was very successful. The fish and rice diet of Japan began to
evolve. That option doesn't exist for China, of course.
So we have the constraint on seafood supplies, we have the constraint on water supplies,
and we have the limits on the amount of fertilizer that available crop varieties can use. So wehave some constraints emerging just at the time when China is getting ready to move into theworld market to import massive amounts of grain. Exactly when that will come we don't know.
It could be before the next harvest, because as you may know grain prices in the 35 largest
cities in China in August of this year were up 60.2% from August of last year. And this wasduring the harvest period. We don't know what will happen in the winter months as we lookahead to next year's harvest. We also know that the government in Beijing canceled trading inrice futures on the Shanghai Commodity Market a week ago Friday because they thought
there was too much speculation in the market. But it's another manifestation of the degree ofscarcity that exists in China.
We know that population growth in China will increase the demand for food, eventhough it's increasing very slowly by international standards, certainly by Third World standards—a bit over 1% a year. But with such a large population base, this still means China will
add 490 million people between 1990and 2030. That's the population of the United States andtwo Japans plus. But in addition to population growth, the more important source of growth indemand for food in China today is rising incomes. What we suddenly have for the firsttime inhistory is 1.2 billion people trying to move up the food chain at a very rapid rate. When the
United States was in a similar period of development some decades back, there were 200 million Americans. For Europe, it was 320 million, and for Japan it was 100 million. We're now
looking at 1.2billion people trying to do that, and doing it at a rate that is almost without precedent. Listen to these,three numbers: 13%, 13%, 11%. Those are the rates of economic growthin China in 1992, 1993, and estimated for 1994. A phenomenal rate of growth for 1.2 billion
people. Some of course are going up faster than that and some less, but on average this is a phenomenal advance.
So you begin to wonder what this means in terms of the demand for livestock products
and therefore for grain. In China, there's no rangeland left to be developed. They can't turn tooceans in a major way for livestockproducts, so they can only get more livestock products orfish by feeding, basically grain.
Whenever you multiply anything by 1.2 billion, it's a lot. One more bottle of beer foreach adult in China requires 370,000 tons of grain. In 1990, the average person in China wasconsuming 100 eggs per year. The officialgoal is to raise that to 200 eggs per person annually144

by the year 2000. Two hundred eggs per person, and by that time there'll be 1.3 billion people.
That's 260 billion eggs. Getting from 100 eggs per person to 200 eggs per person will takemore grain than Australia produces. So as China moves up the food chain, it's going to become
an enormous sponge soaking up grain from all over the world. If we allow only for population
growth and no gain in income and improvement in diet in China, by 2030 because of theabsolute decline in agricultural production due to industrialization's use of cropland China willdevelop a deficit of about 200 million tons of grain, which compares with 28 million tons inJapan today. Two hundred million tons of grain equals total world grain exports from all countries. The United States accounts for about half of world grain exports, 100 million tons, andall other exporting countries—Canada, Australia, Argentina, Thailand—make up the other100 million tons. But if, in addition, China continues to move up the food chain at the rate ofrecent years as incomes rise, it will need to import close to 400 million tons of grain.
This is not my calculation only. Professor Zhu-Guang Zhao, who is the head of theChinese Academy of Sciences, has said, and I quote, "If we continue to squander our land andwater resources in an all-out effort to industrialize, we will face the need to import 400 million
tons of grain, and even all the grain produced in the United States will not be enough to fill that
deficit."This raises two questions. One, can China afford to import massive amounts of grain?
The answer is yes. Last year, China's trade surplus with the United States alone was $23 billion. That was enough to import all the grain we exported last year to close to 100 countries.
So the question is not so much can China afford to import; China is not Africa, which needs
more grain but cannot afford to import it. The important question is who will supply China
with that much grain, and the answer is no one. What this means is that the world grain market, which has been a buyers' market for the last four decades except for a brief period in theearly' 70s, will become a sellers' market. The competition has been among the sellers for markets that never seem to be quite large enough. That will now change, and the competition will
not be among the sellers, but among the importers for inadequate exportable supplies. And thatmeans that instead of declining grain prices in real terms, which has been the case over the last
four decades, there will be rising grain prices for as far as we can see into the future.
If I were writing a commodity newsletter and recommending purchases of futures, I
would say that the first thing we should watch for is rising seafood prices. That's alreadyoccurring. Seafood prices are rising in real terms about 4% per year now for the world as awhole. The second thing I would watch is rice prices, because the producers of rice are faced
not only with limited land supplies but also with severe constraints on the amount of fresh
water that's available. Rice requires land and water. So rice prices will be the next to rise, andthen after that wheat, and then the other grains. I think we're moving into an era that is very
different from the one we've known since the middle of the century. Whether it's the seafoodcatch per person going down, or whether it's grain prices which I think will be rising in realterms—it's going to be quite different.
Now what if, in addition to China needing to move into the market in a major way toimport grain, we also had some effect of global warming? Then we would have real chaos inworld grain markets. What I think we will soon get from China when it announces plans to145

import large quantities of grain—which could come literally any year now if China continues
to industrialize rapidly—is a wake-up call that will create sufficient economic instability in theworld economy to convince even the doubters that the relationship between us, now 5,6 billion,
and the environmental systems and resources on which we depend is in trouble. And we'regoing to have to address these issues in a major way. I think it will lead us to redefine security,
recognizing that the real threat to our security in the future is not so much military aggression
as it is growing human pressure on the Earth's natural systems and resources and the resultant
deterioration of those systems, whether it's overfishing, deforestation, or soil erosion.
I think this redefinition of security will lead us to seriously consider reordering priorities, such as shifting resources out of military budgets and into expenditures for soil conservation, reforestation, family planning, investments in agricultural research, and so on. I think it
will underline the importance of the plan of action that came out of the Cairo population conference, a plan of action that calls for bringing world population growth to a halt much sooner
and at a much lower level than had earlier been considered—to between 8 and 10 billion by
2050, rather than to between 11 and 14 billion by the end of the next century. I think it's going
to underline the need for national governments to do population carrying capacity assessments, to look at land resources, water resources, access to seafood, and the availability oftechnology to increase crop production, and begin to calculate how much food they'll be able
to produce and relate it to the projected increases in population. And for many countries, I
think this will lead to a rather dramatic shift in population policy.
The bottom line, if we're serious about stabilizing population and climate, is a restructuring of the global economy. At the Worldwatch Institute, we call this the Environmental
Revolution. In scale, it is comparable to the Agricultural Revolution or the Industrial
Revolution. The Agricultural Revolution led to an increase in population growth, altering population trends dramatically, and since then we've seen enormous growth. The Environmental
Revolution, if it succeeds, will also lead to profound demographic changes in the form of a leveling off of world population growth, the reestablishment of the balance between births anddeaths in the world. The Industrial Revolution was based on the shift to fossil fuels; theEnvironmental Revolution will be based on a shift away from fossil fuels. The other big difference is the pace. The Agricultural Revolution was spread out over 10,000 years. The
Industrial Revolution began two centuries ago. But the Environmental Revolution, if it is to
succeed, will have to be compressed into a few decades.
The Environmental Revolution will require leadership—strong, international leadership. And that's where Japan can play an important role. I don't think that most of you in Japan
yet appreciate the economic role that you play in the world today. You are one of the world's
leading trading countries. You are now the world's leading source of bilateral development
assistance. If one looks at the international banks in the world today, private banks, the top 10
are all Japanese. Japan has a great deal of potential political influence in the world today related
to the strength of its economy. I know that you think you're in an economic crisis now because
the economy is not growing and hasn't grown for the last few years, and by Japanese standards
I suppose that is a crisis. But the Japanese economy is a powerful economy, one based on ahighly skilled, highly educated, hard-working labor force.

146

We need leadership in the population arena. No country is better suited to do this, simply because Japan itself faced a need to quickly slow population growth after the end of WorldWar II. As an economy, you had lost access to the resources of Southeast Asia and China, andsuddenly you had to rethink your future in terms of living on these resource-poor islands. And
this led to a halving of the population growth rate between 1948 and 1955. In seven years, you
reduced your population growth by half, and that's exactly what developing countries today
need to do. We in the United States cannot provide that example, because we've never had thatexperience. Youhave. You can.
Another arena in which you can play a major role is in raising energy efficiency,a major
contribution to climate stabilization along with the development of renewable energy
resources. But Japan is a country that has led the way in increasing the efficiencyof energy use
and exporting these technologies. Helping developing countries use more energy-efficienttechnologies could be an important contribution to the eventual stabilization of climate.
Similarly, with the development of renewable energy resources there's a real need to pushahead in developing wind power, geothermal power, and solar power in the form of photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants—a whole range of technologies moving very quickly
where Japan could play a leadership role in development.
In conclusion,I would like to say thank you to the Asahi Glass Foundationfor not only theBlue Planet Prize, which is in itself extraordinary,as Professor Seibold would agree, but also forthe opportunityfor the two of us to exchange ideas with you this afternoon.I would end by saying that I think Japan can play a far more importantleadershiprole in the world today by fostering the EnvironmentalRevolution—inleading it, if you will.This is becauseof the resourcesyou
have and the experienCesthat you have had. Again, thank you very much for this opportunity.

147

Major Publications
Lester R. Brown
Books
Brown, Lester R. Man, Land and Food. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, 1963
— .Increasing WorldFood Output. Washington,D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, 1965
— .Seeds of Change. New York: Praeger, 1970
— .WorldWithoutBorders. New York: Vintage, 1972
— .In the Human Interest. New York: Praeger, 1974
Brown, Lester R. and Gail Finsterbusch.Man and His Environment: Food. New York: W.W.
Norton, 1974.
Brown, Lester R. and Erik Eckholm. By Bread Alone. New York: W.W. Norton, 1974.
Brown, Lester R. The Twenty-NinthDay. New York: W.W. Norton, 1978.
Brown,Lester R., Colin Norman and ChristopherFlavin. Running on Empty.New York: W.W.
Norton, 1979.
Brown, Lester R. Building a Sustainable Society.New York: W.W.Norton, 1981.
Brown, Lester R. (Project director and coauthor). State of the World.New York: W.W.Norton,annual series beginning in 1984.
Brown, Lester (Publisher). WorldWatch.Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, bimonthly
magazine beginning in 1988
Brown, Lester R. (Editor). The WorldWatchReader. New York: W.W. Norton, 1991.
Brown, Lester R., Christopher Flavin and Sandra Poste'. Saving the Planet. New York: W.W.
Norton, 1991.
Brown, Lester R. (Project director and coauthor). VitalSigns: The Trends That Are Shaping
Our Future. New York: W.W.Norton, annual series beginning in 1992.
Brown, Lester R. and Hal Kane. Full House: Reassessing the Earth's Population Carrying
Capacity. New York: W.W.Norton, 1994.
Brown, Lester R. Who WillFeed China? Wake-UpCall for a Small Planet. New York: W.W.
Norton, 1995.
Brown, Lester R. Tough Choices: Facing the Challenge of Food Scarcity. New York: W.W.
Norton, 1996.
Monographs (Worldwatch Papers)
Brown, Lester R. "The Politics and Responsibility of the North American Breadbasket."
Brown, Lester R., Patricia McGrath and Bruce Stokes. "Twenty-Two Dimensions of the
Population Problem."Brown, Lester R. "World Population Trends: Signs of Hope, Signs of Stress."
Brown, Lester R. and Erik Eckholm. "Spreading Deserts: The Hand of Man."
Brown, Lester R. "Redefining National Security."— . "The Global Econbmic Prospect."— . "The Worldwide Loss of Cropland."148

— . "Resource Trends and Population Policy: A Time for Reassessment."
Brown, Lester R. and Christopher Flavin. "The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-ShortWorld."
Brown, Lester R. "Food or Fuel: New Competition for the World's Cropland."
Brown, Lester R. and Pamela Shaw. "Six Steps to a Sustainable Society."
Brown, Lester R. "U.S. and Soviet Agriculture: The Shifting Balance of Power."— . "Population Policies for a New Economic Era."
Brown, Lester R. and Edward Wolf. "Soil Erosion: Quiet Crisis in the World Economy."— . "Reversing Africa's Decline."
Brown, Lester R. and Jodi L. Jacobson. "Our Demographically Divided World."— . "The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints."
Brown, Lester R. "The Changing World Food Prospect: The Nineties and Beyond."
ArticlesNumerous

articlesin magazinesand newspapers

aroundthe world.

149