7 January 2016 by Minato Nakazawa

Environmental disasters
Keim ME (2010) “Chapter 23. Environmental Disasters”. In: Frumkin H [Ed.] “Environmental Health: From Global to Local. 2 ndEd.”, John Wiley & Sons, pp.843-875.
Theodore L, Dupont RR (2012) “Chapter 20. Natural Diassters”. In: “Environmental Health and Hazard Risk Assessment:Principles and Calculations”. CRC Press, pp.549-571.
[Definition of disaster] A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material,
economic or environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
(UN/ISDR, 2009). If a disruptive event does not exceed a community's or society's capacity to cope, it is classified as an emergency(WHO, 1998). [Cited from Keim ME, 2010][How to evaluate natural disasters – cited from Theodore L, Dupont RR, 2012 and others]
1. General classification of natural disasters
1. Land – avalanches, earthquakes, lahars (mudslides, landslides), volcanic eruptions
2. Water – floods, limnic (gaseous lake emissions), tsunamis
3. Weather – blizzards, hurricanes, or cyclonic storms, droughts, hailstorms, heat waves, tornadoes
4. Space – gamma ray bursts, impact events (meteorites, asteroids), solar flares
2. The way how those affect health* Natural disasters → environmental effect → financial, environmental, and/or human lossses
3. 5 case studies
1. Hurricanes
Loss Data for Case Study 1
1. Originates over oceans in certain regions near the equator (in USA, Table 20.1 Fatality Rate/PropertyFatality
Rate Property Loss per
usually storms arising in the Carribean Sea and Gulf of Mexico).
10 Year Interval Median Year per Hurricane Hurricane x 10^(-6) $1920-1930
1925
118
83
2. Characteristics: high winds, torrential rain, high water waves,
1930-1940
1935
55
210
tornados. Usually it moves in a path resembling the curve of
1940-1950
1945
8250
1955
33456
parabola. Fully developed hurricanes has high winds with more than 1950-1960
1960-1970
1965
30
325
1970-1980
1975
191410150 mph velocity.
1985
9676
3. In USA, the paths of hurricanes were recorded since 1870s. Average 1980-1990
1990-2000
1995
72103
2000-20102005(notavailable)(notavailable)
frequency of hurricanes attacking USA is slightly more than 2 per
2010-2020
2015
year. The most frequently attacked place is Florida, followed byTexas.
4. Predicting annual fatality rate for 2010-2015 may be useful for
insurane company.
5. The data is shown right.
6. Predicting 2010-2020 value, regression analysis can be used.
Sometimes linear (left), hockey-stick, second-order (parabolic),or third-order (cubic) function can be applied. Here log-linear
model (right) is the most appropriate.
2. Floods (cf. Tsunami in coastal area)
1. Negative effects
1. Soil erosion as well as sediment deposition problems downstream

3.

4.

5.

2. Inundated property and loss of life
3. Interference with the economic use of lands
4. Severe damage to bridge abutments sewer outfalls, and other infrastructure within floodways
5. Impairment to navigation and hydroelectric power production
6. Contamination of water and accompanying disease outbreaks
7. Failed crops
2. Positive effects
1. Recharge of groundwater
2. Improving soil fertility by providing nutrients in which it is deficient
3. Providing additional water resources in arid regions
4. Maintaining ecosystems in river corridors
5. Maintaining flood plain biodiversity
3. How to maximize net gain using an example
1. Total annual net income in $10^6/year, AI = 10(H-100), where H is the levees of height in inches.
2. Total annual cost (AC) in $10^6/year, AC=100000/(500-H)
3. Profit P = AI-AC, which is maximized at H=400, by solving these equations. Considering breakdown
operation, H must range within 473.2 and 126.8, by solving P=0: (500-H)(H-100)=100000/10
Earthquakes
1. Direct consequences: Ground shaking/Ground rupture/Landslides/Avalanches/Tsunamis/Floods/Excessive tidalforces
2. (eg.) A large metropolitan area located along the western coast of the USA has commissioned a study to determine,on average, the annual property loss that could arise due to an earthquake (plus secondary aftershocks), located at
the center of the city (it is the worst scenario). We can calculate the expected frequency of an earthquake withmagnitude 5.25-9.25 as 0.0334/year, which is almost once every 30 years. By taking this value with possible
property loss, it is possible to determine the appropriate annual insurance cost.
Meteorites
1. (eg.) Feb 15,2013 - A "small" meteorite streaked through the skies above Russia's Urals region. The blast,equivalent to 300,000 tons of TNT, shattered windows, damaged more than 3,000 building and injured over 1,000people. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpmXyJrs7iU]
2. Very rare events. Special approach is needed. (cf.) Reinhardt CF et al. (2015) Asteroid risk assessment: A
probabilistic approach. Risk Analysis, doi:10.1111/risa.12453.
Combined hurricanes and floods
1. (eg.) April 2014 – Honiara flush flood
2. Combined effects of strong wind and risen sea and river water levels should be considered. The direction of wind isalso important. (cf.) Drews C, Galarneau TJ Jr. (2015) Directional Analysis of the Storm Surge from Hurricane
Sandy 2012, with Applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines. PLoS ONE, 10(3): e0122113.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0122113.

[Major evaluation guidelines and forms]● HESPER (WHO)● The Humanitarian Emergency Settings Perceived Needs Scale (HESPER): Manual with Scale
http://www.who.int/mental_health/publications/hesper_manual/en/● CASPER toolkit (CDC)● http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/hsb/disaster/casper.htm● E-learning course
http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/hsb/disaster/CASPER_elearning/● Mortality surveillance (CDC)● http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/surveillance/pdf/disaster-mortality-form.pdf● http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/surveillance/pdf/disaster-mortality-instructions.pdf● Morbidity surveillance (CDC)● http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/surveillance/pdf/naturaldisastermorbiditysurveillancetallysheet.pdf● http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/surveillance/pdf/naturaldisastermorbiditysurveillancelinelist.pdf● http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/surveillance/pdf/naturaldisastermorbiditysurveillanceindividualform.pdf● Shelter assessment (CDC)● http://www.bt.cdc.gov/shelterassessment/