II . " Questionnaire

on Environmental

Problems

and the Survival of Humankind"
10-Year Summary
Introduction
Questionnaire Overview
1 When Will Humankind's Crisis of Survival Come?
1.1 Environmental Doomsday Clock
1.2 Causes of the Crisis
1.3 Generation on the Brink of Crisis
2 How the Current State of Crisis Is Perceived?
2.1 Agenda 21
3 Averting the Environmental Crisis
3.1 The Global Warming Problem
3.1.1 Solutions to Global Warming Sought with the Conference of the Parties tothe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP)
3.1.2 Alternative Energy Sources to Fossil Fuels
3.2 Carbon Taxes/Environmental Taxes
3.3 Lifestyle Alteration
3.4 Environmental Education
3.5 Current State of Water Resources
3.6 Endocrine Disruptors
3.7 Future Predictions (After 30 Years)
A 10-Year Perspective by Professor Akio Morishima
Closing291

Introduction
The resolution of environmental problems is one of the most important issues facing all people today, so that our shared home, the planet Earth, may sustain future generations. In 1992,
the year of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the Asahi Glass Foundation began conducting
a survey to find out how people in different countries felt about the current state of the environment and what measures they deemed necessary to counter environmental problems. From
our neutral standpoint as a charitable organization working in the public interest, we administer the survey to representative individuals and organizations involved in environmental issues
and publish the results. Although the survey results may be weighted toward environmental
protectionism, since the opinions expressed are those of people involved in these issues and not
simply members of the general public, by publishing the results we anticipate being able toheighten interest in the restoration and preservation of the environment and to add to the numbers of people willing to participate in environmental solutions.
In 2001, the Foundation conducted its 10th annual "Questionnaire on Environmental
Problems and the Survival of Humankind." The following is a compilation of the results ofthese first 10 years of the questionnaire.

293

Questionnaire Overview
Inaccordwiththeobjectives
notedabove,a questionnaire
issentat theendofMarcheachyear
to anywhere
between2,400and3,900environmental
expertsworldwide
workingfornational
and localgovernments,
NGOs,universities,researchinstitutesand privatecorporations.
Returnedquestionnaires
arecollecteduntilJune,thentheresponsesfromaroundtheworldare
compiledandcompared,
andtheresultsareannounced
in September.
Table1 showsthechangesin responsesforthe 10yearsof questionnaires
sentto date.
Thefirstandsecondquestionnaires
wereusedin thesymposiaheldin conjunction
withthecommemorative
lecturesby theBlue PlanetPrizerecipients.Fromthethird questionnaire
onward,AkioMorishima,
Chairman,InstituteforGlobalEnvironmental
Strategies(aNagoya
University
professorat thetime)wasrequestedtosupervise
theprocess.Sincethefourthquestionnaire,the numberof responsesfromJapanhavebeenrelativelystableat around300,
whereasoverseasresponsestotaledapproximately
300 fromthe fourthto eighthquestionnairesandincreasedto approximately
400fortheninthandtenthquestionnaires.
Ona regionalbasis,thereare generally50 or moreresponsesfromWesternEurope,
NorthAmerica,AsiaandAfrica.Therehavebeenfewerresponsesfromthe MiddleEast,
EasternEurope& theformerSovietUnion,andOceania,andwe areattempting
to increase
thesenumbers.Approximately
80%of respondents
aremale.
Table

1.

Changesin questionnaire

response

numbers

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

877

61

189

248

282

306

279

293

311

292

49

22

23

25

51

38

62

59

93

58

39

38

62

79

77

65

60

79

88

84

Asia (outside Japan)

30

43

92

62

63

63

54

60

81

83

Latin America

11

37

36

48

35

41

33

27

26

35

40

53

62

32

52

51

39

53

55

9

22

22

22

21

18

21

13

17

30

13

13

17

14

16

15

18

14

19

22

Middle East

9*

6

4

16

11

14

15

12

11

22

No response

17

0

6

0

Overseas

Total

168

221

315

328

1054

282

504

576

589

613

595

597

702

684

Rate

28.3%

11.0%

20.8%

21.7%

18.4%

19.1%

17.9%

18.5%

20.5%

17.3%

Japan
United States
Western& Canada

EuropeAfricaOceania
EasternEuropeTotal
Response.

& former Soviet

Union

3

3

391

392

2

307

307

316

304

* Figure includes the total for Africa and the Middle East

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Male

995

195

390

444

470

470

475

486

552

540

Female

44

61

110

119

108

132

109

95

126

119

No response

15

26

4

13

11

11

11

16

24

25

1054

282

504

576

589

613

595

597

702

684

Total

294

1.

When

1.1

Environmental"IndicateWill Humankind's
DoomsdayCrisis

Come?

Clock

with a time your concern

deteriorationof the environment,

levelson the clock below."shownof Survival

about
takingthe survival

prospects

into considerationof humankithe timesnd in lightand associatedof theconcern

In order to gauge the respondents' perceptions of the global environmental crisis, theEnvironmental Doomsday Clock has been included in every survey since the first questionnaire in 1992. The clock hands are used to express the extent to which respondents perceive acrisis to exist.
Figure 1 shows the overall averages for all respondents while Table 2 shows the averages for Japan and overseas individually for the questionnaires to date. In the overall category,
the average advanced forward each year from 7:49 in 1992 in the "Fairly Concerned" (6:019:00) quadrant until 1996 when it reached 9:13 in the "Extremely Concerned" (9:01-12:00)
quadrant. Although it later eased to the range of 9:04 to 9:08 in that quadrant for three years,
the clock hands receded to 8:56 in the "Fairly Concerned" quadrant in 2000 and advanced
again in 2001 to 9:08 in the "Extremely Concerned" quadrant.
As Table 2 demonstrates, the overseas averages were approximately 40 minutes fasterthan the Japanese averages from 1992 to 1997. In 1998 and thereafter, that difference closed
to 10 minutes or less, a much smaller gap, indicating a convergence in the level of concern.

9:01 -12:00
Extremely concerned

0:01 - 3:00
Barely concerned

6:01 - 9:00
concerned

3:01 - 6:00
Slightly concerned

Fairly2001
9:08(N=650)(+12minutes)

1992 (+30minutes)
1993 (+28minutes)
1994 (+2minutes)1995 (+24minutes)
1996 (-9minutes)1997 (+1minutes)1998(+3mmutes) 1999 (-12minutes)2000

7:49(N=1,054)

8:19(N=282)

Table

2.

8:47
(N=504)

8:49(N=576)

9:13(N=589)Figure1. Concern

about Human

Changesin the Environmental

Doomsday9:04(N=613)
Survival

9:05(N=595)

9:08(N=579)8:56(N=643)

Prospects

Clock averages

in Japanand overseas

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Overseas

8:44

8:33

9:16

9:22

9:34

9:27

9:09

9:10

8:56

9:11

Japan

7:38

7:33

8:01

8:08

8:51

8:42

9:01

9:07

8:56

9:04

295

10:00Extremely

9:30

concerned

9:00
Quite concerned

8:30

8:00

7:30
1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1.2

Causes2. Changes

1998

Japan

Total

Figure1997

in the Environmental

Doomsday

1999

2000

2001

Overseas

Clock averages

for 10 years, 1992 to 2001.

of the Crisis"Select

two options

you think will cause

icantly

upon humansurvival."

the most harmto the environment

and impact

signif -The first and second responses overall, as shown in Figure 3, were "Economic developmentthat disregards the environment" and "Explosive population growth." The third choice was"Global warming," which illustrated the high level of anxiety and concern about this issue(2000 Questionnaire).
(%)
Explosive population
Economic development
the environment

growththat disregards

Nuclear threats
Epidemics
Water and food shortages

Global warming
AbnormalclimateAir pollution

and acid rain

Destructionof the ozone layer

Destructionof forests and desertification

Reductionof genetic diversity

Total [702]Developed Regions [492]Developing Regions [160]

Pollution of oceans and rivers

Figure296

3. Perceived

causes of significant

impacts

on humansurvival prospects.

1.3

Generation"In whichbasedon the Brink

generationof Crisis

do you thinkon the mass-production

humanity

will becomeand mass-consumption

unablestandards

to maintainof present-day

its existence
civilization?"

The question of exactly which generation will face a crisis in human survival is a pressing
issue. The responses to the above question in the 1996 and 1997 questionnaires are shown in
Figure 4. In both years, the most responses were received for "Your grandchildren's generation (2031-2065)," which was followed by "Your great-grandchildren's generation (20662100)." This indicates that the respondents felt that a crisis would be experienced before weentered the 22nd century.
(%)
0Your children's

10

20

30

40

50

generation(by the year 2030)
Your grandchildren's

generation(from 2031 to 2065)
Your great-grandchildren's

generation(from 2066 to 2100)
A generation

1996

farther in the future

1997(after the year 2100)
Figure4. Generation

Comments from Respondents
Respondents were also asked to commenton the brink of crisis.

about what sort of crisis they see occurringin thefuture. A selection of their answers, in their own words, is given below.

• There have been two crises of annihilationin the history of humankind. They are the atomic
bomb and the environment (primarily global warming, but endocrine disruptors may
become the dark horse). An elite in some of the major countries holds the atomicbutton andwe have managed to escape destruction so far. However,the key to the environment is heldin the hand of each human. The egos of nationalists and corporations are the ones at thefront, but it is the egos of individuals that lie behind them. (Japan, 2001)•

It is getting

nearlytoo late . If we don't

start addressingthe "environmental

deficit"

soon,

297

we will go bankrupt. People must stop feeding like political animals at Nature's trough.
Economic growth needs to be seen for what it really is: cancer! Economic expansion is notsustainable. Neither is population growth. We need to seek maturity, rather than a continued adolescence. (Canada, 1998)•

I do not think that humans are in danger from environmental change , but civilization is ingreat danger. (United Kindom, 1998)• We largely have the technical information and the legislative framework for the protectionof bio-diversity and the environment; what we are lacking is the social, political, ethical andintellectual will to complete the work. The fight for the environment and bio-diversity is afight for life; ours, our descendants, and that of countless other species. It is not sufficientthat the environment is on the list of the factors to be taken into account in decisions, it must
be pre-eminent. (Greece, 2000)• There is a concept to be raised; it's the notion of a time scale very different between ecological process and decision process. The first one is long and the lifetime of politicaldeciders is far shorter. Thus, decisions for the long term are not taken and opposite effects
are not corrected. In the case of my country, Monaco, the political life of the Prince, actually 50 years, permits long-term decisions, to correct or adapt former decisions. The political time is more adapted to the ecological time. My reflection is: in the majority if thepolitical system could the ecological question stay in political hands or should we go
through some governance system? (Monaco, 1999)•

The last two years had showed me that people in the cities don't care about environmental
problems because they think that the "environment" is the rainforest, the whales, or someabstract concepts that scientists use. On the other side, people in the highland or native
communities have a better idea of what the environment is and means, and how important
it is for the survival of humankind, but they have to survive right now so they have to clear
the rainforest or kill the wildlife so their community can survive. Maybe this means thatthe wrong people are living in the wrong places? (Peru, 1999)•

It is time for a change of paradigm , i.e. to switch our negative attitude when we talk aboutsustainability (less of this and less of that) to treating sustainability as a challenge formankind of achieving more with less resources with a lot of business opportunities ! The
capital market has already checked it; there is a Dow Jones Global Sustainability Index
since September 1999. (Switzerland, 2000)

298

2.

How the Current

2.1

Agenda"Sinceof Crisis

Is Perceived?

21

the EarthSummit, to what extent has progressareas covered by Agenda 21?"the following

AgendaState

21, an action

1992 Earth

Summitplan

for the environment

in Rio de Janeiro,

coversbeen

achieved

and development,a broad range

in your own country

which

of issueswasranging

adoptedinat thefrom combating

pollution
to dealing with overpopulationand eradicating
poverty. Therefore,
this plan set out
how NGOs, governments
and corporations
were to cooperateon environmental
and development issues

in orderthat 10 years

have passed

the World

to conserve

Summitthe global

environment

since its adoption,

on Sustainable

Development

it is expected

as the 21st century

approached.

to be comprehensively

in Johannesburg

Nowreviewedatthis year.

(%)

Promotion ofenvironmental education

80

Activities by local governments
and citizens' groups

70
Environmental
by industry

60

measures

Scientific and technologicalcontributions

50

Formation of recycling systems

40

Conservation of forest
resources

30

Greenhouse gas
prevention measures

20

Conservation

10of biodiversity

Population and poverty
problems

0Lifestyle alteration

1994

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Figure 5. Changes over nine years in progress evaluations of the Agenda 21 action plan (Combined "Significant
Progress" and "Some Progress" categories).

The questionnaire
Agenda21 planrespondents'

own

results

for the nine

are shownin Figurecountries,

years

from

1993 to 2001

5. In the responses

the "Significant

Progress"about

for 10 items

includedin thethe progressachievedin theand "Some

Progress"

responses

for

299

respondents

from

Japan

and

overseas

werecompiled

togetheras combined"Progress"

responses.
Over
included
zen's

the nine-year"Promotion

groups,"low progress"Conservationand "Environmental

the items

thatreceivededucation,"measuresrelatively"Activities

by industry."by localConversely,

highthat received

recentquestionnaires

progressratings.

ratings

high progressfor even higher

up to 1995 continue

progressto show

ratings
ratings.

up to 1995
Similarly,

a trend in recent

progressgovernments
the items

ratings
included"Lifestylealteration,""Population/povertyof biodiversity"and "Greenhousegas prevention
measures

The items

300

period,of environmental

continue
the items

questionnaires

ratings
and citi-that received
problems,"."
to showa trendinthat received

low

for continuedlow3. Averting

the Environmental

3.1

Warming

The Global

CrisisProblem

3.1.1 Solutions to Global Warming Sought with the Conference of the Parties to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP)

Global warming caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases released by humanactivities into the atmosphere has become a major problem because of its remarkably severe
impact on natural ecosystems and humans. The cooperation of each nation is essential to prevent warming at the global level, and since COP1 in Berlin in 1995, COP sessionshave been
held every year at various locations around the world. Since the 1996 questionnaire,a question
connected to COP issues has been included and has surveyed the opinions of respondents
regarding efforts to build an international framework for the prevention of global warming.
Kyoto Protocol

Ratification

Conditions"Political

momentumto implement

Summit,was createdat COPS.

Kyoto

Protocolratification

the Kyoto

Althoughyet, select two conditions

none

Protocolby 2002of the developedthat you think, 10 years
countries

are the most important

after
have

the Earthratifiedthefor promoting

in your country."

The responses in 2000 from overseas (aggregate) and Japan alike listed "Progress in domestic
measures aimed at achieving reduction targets, including legal frameworks" in first place, followed by "Public opinion arousal through the mass media" and "Specifying the working rules
for Flexible Measures." U.S. respondents were more likely to select "Persuasion of opposedindustrial organizations to accept ratification" than respondents from other regions, suggesting
the undercurrents behind the U.S. announcement in March 2001 of its departure from the
Kyoto Protocol. (2000 Questionnaire)

301

(%)
Specifying

the working rules for "Flexible Measures"

Resolutionof the time frame for developing

country

participation
Resolutionof the sanctions

reduction

targets

for non-compliance

with

Progress in domestic measures aimed at achieving
reduction

targets, including

Persuasionof opposed industrial

legal frameworks
organizations

to accept

ratification
Technologicalachievement
Reinforced
NGOs

progresstoward reduction

targetpressure from opinion leaders or environmental

Overseas [391]Public opinion arousal through the mass media

Japan [311]
Other

FigureDomestic"Check

6. Conditions

Efforts to Reducethe items

corresponding

requiredfor promoting

Greenhouseto domesticGas

ratificationof the Kyoto Protocol.

Emissions

efforts

in yourcountry

since

COP3

(KyotoConference) to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases."
Although the prospects for reaching the reduction targets for 2012 appear dim, each country
is devising various strategies with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In Figure 7,
which shows the result of the survey in 2001, the longer bar graphs indicate the regions withthe most respondents who were able to evaluate their countries' efforts. Western Europe had
the longest bar graph, indicating that these respondents were able to evaluate the most items,
while Latin America had the shortest bar graph and the fewest items. For overseas respondents
overall, "Promotion of education and awareness training for the general public" was the mostcommon response, followed by "Promotion of natural energy sources" and "Promotion ofenergy saving." It was apparent that measures for the "Greening of the tax system, including
environmental taxes" and "Promulgation of laws and regulations or strengthening of penalties
aimed at reducing global warming gases" had not progressed. (2001 Questionnaire)

302

A

B

C D

E

F

G

H

I

Japan [N=292](%)

U.S. & Canada [N=58]
WesternEurope [N=84]
Asia [N=83]
Latin America [N=35]
Africa [N=55]
Oceania[N=30]
EasternEurope & former
SovietUnion [N=22]
Middle East [N=22]
Overseas Total [N=392]
0
100
200
300
400
A=Development of energy-saving technologies or green products B=Promotion of natural energy sources
C=Promulgation of laws and regulations or strengthening of penalties D=Greening of the tax system
E=Promotion of energy saving F=Greening of industry G=Self-initiatives by local authorities
H=Promotion of education and awareness training for the general public l=Other & Don't know

The figures indicate the number of responses to each item and the percentage of the total respondents . The total percentage
is higher in regions in which there were many respondents that could assess multiple items.

Note:

FigureExpectations
"What

500

measures.

for COP6

do you have

November

7. Domestic

the strongest

expectations

for COP6, whichwill meetat The Hague

in

2000?"

With regard to COP6, the developed regions (Western Europe, North America and Japan) had
expectations for "Introducing domestic systems assuring developed nation reduction target
attainment." The developing regions (Asia, Africa and Latin America) had expectations for"Additional financial support from developed to developing co
untries." (2000 Questionnaire)
Developing Regions [N=173]

Developed

Regions [N=434](%)

Additional

financial support from developed todeveloping countries
Developing
countries' promises to participate
in theKyoto Protocol in the near future
Setting upper limits to the Kyoto Mechanism
Specificationof activities

targeted by the CDM

Vetoes over sink projects included as part of the CDM
Methods
Compensation

to quantify

a forest's

to countries

absorption

affected

volumeby global warming

Introducing domestic systems assuring developed
nation reduction target attainment
Other & Don't

Know

Note: Please note that the totals for the various regions should add up to 200% since respondents were asked to select two items .
However, some respondents marked no items or only one item,causing the aggregate total to be less than 200%.

Figure

8. Expectations

for COP6.

303

When

Should"In the futureindustrialized

Restrictions

on Emissions, developing

nations'

countries.

WhencarbonshouldBegindioxidein Developing

emissions

restrictions

Countries?

are expectedon emissions

begin

to surpassin developing

those

of

coun-

tries?"The early participation of the developing nations has become a pressing issue with respect tohalting global warming. As Figure 9 shows, both the developed and developing regions
selected the "2010-2014" period as the first choice by an overwhelming margin, although thepercentage was smaller for developing regions than for developed regions. This indicates thata majority of respondents think that developing countries should control emissions early on.
(1998 Questionnaire)*N=number of responses(%)
Developed

Developing

Regions

Regions

A.2010-2014

F1
E1
D1

B. 2015-2019
C. 2020-2024
D. 2025-2029
E. After the year 2030
[N=138][N=401]

F. Developing nations
should not have toabide by carbon

D 0

dioxide emissions
standards.
G. Cannot comment
FigureComments

9. Whenshould emission

reductions

be set in developing

countries?

from Respondents

The following is a sampling of commentsfrom respondents

about COP.

• Environmental problems like global warming are part of global development issues. Thus,bargaining among nations to redress equity concerns needs to take place at the same timethat rapid population growth, political corruption and inefficient management and technology are addressed. It is imperative that developed countries provide resources—efficiently
accomplished via a carbon tax—and technological transfers to less developed countries toencourage leapfrogging of technology (e.g. from coal to combined cycle gas power plants
or internal combustion engines to fuel cell powered cars). The focus of post-Kyoto negotiations should be mechanisms rather than arbitrary and inconsistent targets and timetables.
(United States, 1998)

304

•

Emissions trading should be discouraged . Assistance toward the development of sustainable, environmentally friendly technologies acceptable culturally to developing countries
should be given in lieu of payment for emission transfer. (United Kingdom, 1998)•

I think it will be difficult to succeed in reducing greenhouse gas rates unless we impose concepts and debate that transcend the governmental, social and economic framework that hassustained the 20th century. Even in our own independent research, we have been able toachieve significant results by reconsidering our waste treatment systems and transport systems. I believe that a country's stance toward dealing with problems determines its direction. (Japan, 2001)• It all depends on the USA and the Bush administration what we will have in future . They
create 25% of the air pollution/global warming and will increase that amount. It is very hard
to comprehend the American Society's thinking, as they are responsible for future global
warming and life on this earth. (Australia, 2001)• It is poorly realized that the bulk of GHG from territoriesunder national jurisdiction is produced by microbial decomposition.For Russia about 10% of CO2is produced by the industry and approximately 4.4GtC/yr by soil respiration.For CH4 and N20 balance (it) is still
more in favor of bacteria. For countries in warmer climates, decomposition sources should
be much stronger.Attention should be paid to reservoirs with long carbon residence time.
(Russia, 1998)•

I am appalled and alarmed at America's refusal to co-operate with its Kyoto promises . I am
alarmed by the disappearance of birds (sparrows especially) and animals in England,because it means there is something badly wrong in the atmosphere, not only in agriculture.
(United Kingdom, 2001)•

I am glad that you have concentrated this year on the outcome of COP3 . We now have a
new Ministry of the Environment and a Minister (Mrs. Nadia Makram Ebeid), as well as a
new law. The Minister is strict in applying the law and makes weekly visits to factories toinspect their performance and is serious about the implementation of the law. (Egypt, 1998)•

Although it is also necessary to cooperate internationally to endeavor to persuade the new
American administration, which has declared its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, on
the other hand, it is necessary for Japanese academics, the mass media, and non-governmental organizations at every level to work on their American counterparts and develop amovement that will bring about policy changes and get public opinion to draw the attentionof the administration and congress to their mistake despite the pressure exerted by theindustry lobby. (Japan, 2001)

305

3.1.2

Alternative

EnergySources"Somepolicyinitiatives

promoteprevent

globalwarming.

Selectto Fossil

Fuels

the use of nuclear
one option

power

to sever reliancethat most closely

matches

youron fossil
stancefuels andtowardthispolicy."It will be essential to developand use alternativeenergy sourcesto fossil fuels if we are to prevent global warming. At present, nuclear power is relied upon for much of the alternative
power generation. In 2000, respondents were asked for their opinions regardingnuclear power
generation. As Figure 10 reveals, 7% of the overall response for overseas respondents was for"A: current technology is reliable." "E: rather than relying on nuclear power, we should promote the developmentof new energy sources" accounted for approximately60% of responses
in all of the overseas regions, indicating a strengthening in views opposed to nuclear power
generation. When the responses for all respondents and just corporate respondents were compared for Japan, North America and Western Europe, it was clear that a higher percentage ofcorporate respondents in each region indicated support for the "current technologyis reliable"
option than for the general respondents in that region. (2000 Questionnaire)
A

C

E

F

Japan [N=311](%)

CorporateRespondents[N=56]
U.S. & Canada [N=93]
CorporateRespondents[N=20]
WesternEurope [N=88]
CorporateRespondents[N=25]
Asia [N=81]
LatinAmerica [N=26]
Africa [N=53]
Oceania [N=17]
EasternEurope & former Soviet Union[N=19]
MiddleEast [N=11]
OverseasTotal [N=391]
CorporateRespondents [N=50]
DevelopedRegions [N=492]
DevelopingRegions [N=160]
Male [N=552]
Female [N=126]
A=current technology is reliable
Note: Responses from corporate respondents numbering greater than 10 B=okay if current technology is fundamentally revised
was included.
C=hydroelectric power generation
D=should improve the energy efficiency of thermal power generation
E=should promote the development of new energy sources
F=don't know

Figure306

10. Nuclear power generation

as an alternative

energy source to fossil fuels.

3.2

CarbonTaxes/Environmental

Approval/Opposition

to Carbon"Which is your opinion

To prevent

global

Taxes

Taxes

of the imposition

warming,raise the environmentalof car bon taxes;

it will be equallyawareness

importantof individuals

tax is a tax imposedon natural

sumptionof fossil

fuels.

The graphgas, gasoline

tionnaire

results

regardingapproval

below

to reviseand promote

and thermalshows

or opposition?"socialsystems

energypower

generationof theto carbon

as it will be toconservation.

a comparisonand opposition

Approveapproval

A carbonto constrain
1998

the con-and 1999

ques-

taxes.

Don't know +No response

Oppose(%)
Japan
UnitedStates & Canada
WesternEuropeAsia
Latin

America
AfricaOceania
Eastern Europe &former Soviet Union

Figure11. Comparison

Overall,

opinions

Breaking

this down,in developing
ferences

exceptMiddleEast

Overseas

Total

of 1998 and 1999 results regarding

in favorof the introduction

opinions

regions.

in developed

In the comparison

for in North

Approval/Oppositionof carbon

regions
betweentaxes

were more
the two years,

1998

survey1999

surveyto carbon taxes.

outweighed

those

opposed.

likelyto be in favor than

those

there

were no significant

dif,of the following

taxes

America.

Environmental

Tax Coverage"If you agreed

with the introductionof environmental

taxes, with which

are you in agreement?"

At the time in the year 2000,
to the load placedquestionnaire,
mental taxes.

environmental

on the environment,

weretaxes,

that wereadditiveor subtractive

accordingusedin eight

countries

in Europe.

In the 2000

responses
overall were overwhelmingly
in favor of the introductionof environPeople in favor of these taxes were asked the above question.
As Figure
12

307

demonstrates, the most selected response overall was "fossil fuels...," which was followed by"Industrial and noxious waste ." For the rebate tax section, the most commonly selected item
overseas (aggregate) and in Japan was "Natural energy sources, such as solar, etc." (2000
Questionnaire)(%)
Fossil fuels that are the source of carbon
dioxide emissions
Automotive

Industrial

fueland noxious waste

Vehicles emitting relativelyof nitrous oxides,etc.

large volumes

Overseas[345]

Items with a large environmental

Low-pollution,energy-efficient

Naturalenergy sources,such

Japan[265]Developed Regions[424] Developing Regions[142]

impactvehiclesas solar,etc.

Green products

Notes: Please note that the totals for the various regions should add up to 300% since respondents were asked to select three items.
However, some respondents marked no items or only one item, causing the aggregate total to be less than 300%.

FigureConditions

for Introducing

12. Additive

Environmental"The understandingof consumers

environmental

Selectducingtaxes.

environmental/ Rebate environmental

Taxes

and businesses

the condition

tax coverage.

which

must be obtained
you believe

to successfullyis the mostimportantintroduce
for intro-

taxes."

Figure 13 shows that more than half of overseas respondents and Japanese respondents
selected "Environmental taxes are clearly designated for specific uses" as the most importantcondition to successfully introduce environmental taxes. (2000 Questionnaire)308

Others or no response
Environmental taxes are clearly designated for specific uses

Revenue

Environmental taxes areharmonized with othernations

neutral(%)

Japan [N=311]
U.S. & Canada[N=93]
WesternEurope[N=88]
Asia [N=81]
Latin America[N=26]
Africa[N=53]
Oceania[N=17]
EasternEurope & formerSovietUnion[N=19]
MiddleEast [N=11]
OverseasTotal [N=391]
DevelopedRegions[N=492]
DevelopingRegions[N=160]

FigureComments

fromRespondents•

13. Conditions

for introducing

environmental

taxes.

carbonand/orRespondents

offeredthe following

opinions

concerning

environmental

taxes.

I can't say that the average consumer is provided with consumption choices in everyday lifethat pose a low environmental burden. We cannot help relying on governments that apply
proactive guidance, environmental taxes, tax system incentives or legal requirements tobusinesses, which are the primary providers of resources for daily living in modern society.
Although the current trend is toward economic liberalization, it should not run counter toeconomic liberalization if we develop an economy that poses a low environmental burden
as a system, rather than leaving it to the whims of a few corporations or the bureaucracy.
(Japan, 2000)•

One of the key obstacles is the fact that environmentally damaging behavior is still economically profitable. Changes in the taxation and subsidies system should change that,then many people will switch to a more sustainable behavior out of economic self-interest.
(Germany, 1997)•

The reason

that it is understoodintellectually

feelingthat there

will be no visible

mentaleducation

will havethoughtof as effective

matterhow unconcerned

means

some

changeeffectof changing

individuals

but not translatedeven if the action

over the long term,lifestyles

are aboutinto action
is taken.

is that there

Althoughonly economic

environ-tools

can beover the short term. This is because

the environment,

their concern

is a

is bound

no
to

309

be focused on their wallets. (Japan, 1999)•

Carbon tax is used in my country for all kinds of non-environment-related "" andpurposes

to a lesser extent for promoting environmental protection. (Greece, 1998)•

If on the one hand it is though necessary to impose taxes on fossil fuels (carbon tax) , I have
grave concerns that nuclear power generation will end up being promoted as a result.
(Japan, 1999)•

The state of our environment is a reflection of the nature of our governments . A good broad
based democratic governance answers our problems. The poor countries must be relievedof their taxes to build their environment. (Ghana, 2001)•

The key issue is , in my view: people want to travel, move and live comfortable lives. They
have little individual power to do so in an environmentally clean way. Companies have an
incentive to offer alternatives if they are taxed for unsustainable products & practices.
Governments can only tax together. Hence: (1) international governance is the key. (2)once a tax is there, use it for the development of a new energy source. (Netherlands, 1999)•

The central problem is that we still have taxation and subsidy systems that provide insuffi
cient incentives to act environmentally friendly. You still have to be an idealist. But mostpeople need economic incentives. (Germany, 1998)•

There is no time to lose in dealing with global environmental problems , and I think that they
will not be solved by relying on individual efforts alone. Therefore, economic measures
must be introduced and the principle of 'polluters pay' must be rigidly enforced. (Japan,
1997)

310

3.3

Lifestyle

Changing

Alteration

peoples'tainablesociety.

lifestyles
Lifestyleis thought

alteration

to be an extremelyis one of the Agenda

importantmeans

21 actionof realizing

plan items,

and as indicatedpreviously
in Figure 5, which shows the ratings
see this item as having made the least progress

for Agenda 21 items, respondents
over a nine-year
period, excepting

1992, the questionnaire

about

dents'

opinions

has included

about

LargestObstacles"Select

two items

this problem

from various

to the Alterationthat you thinkOver

the six questionnaires

since

they participate

ations"are possible,

conducted

for the developedwas "Not so impending"Implementing
solutionssolutionsbothersome"in second

place.

fromin environmental

Accordingly,"lifestyleconsistently
1993. Since

alteration"

to examine

to the alterationof lifestyles

respon-perspectives.

of Lifestyles

are the largest

but the sections

has been achieved.
the results

a questiona sus-

obstacles1993

to 1998,

issues—haveon the Agenda

The first choicethan

80% of respondents—

to state

21 items reveal

in 1999, the above question

regions.

more

continuedthat "lifestylethat virtually

was asked,

in Western."alter-

no progress

and Figure

14 shows

and North

America

Europeas to be given precedence
over comfort,"
which was followedbybothersome." Among Japanese
respondents
it was "Implementing
first, followed

by "Perceptionthat individual

efforts

are meaningless"(%)
Implementing
Not so impending
Perception

solutionsbothersome

as to be given precedence over comfort
that individual
efforts
are meaninglessMedia

not persuasive

Scientificgroundinglacking

Green-productpremium

too high
Japan (N=293)
U.S. & Canada (N=59)
Western Europe (N=79)

Other
No response

Note: Please note that the totals for the various regions should add up to 200% since respondents were asked to select two items.
However, some respondents marked no items or only one item, causing the aggregate total to be less than 200%.

Figure14. Largest

obstacles

to the alterationof lifestyles.

311

Strategies"Select

for Changing

the two

options

Lifestyles
that you fee

1 are the mosteffective

strategies

for improving

citizenawareness."

To facilitate the change in peoples' awareness to promote changes in lifestyle, the mostendorsements in any region, including Japan, were for "Environmental education from kindergarten." As Figure 15 shows, the overseas respondents in aggregate selected "Green products," and "Promote the idea that riding a bicycle is attractive" as the next most popular
responses. (1999 Questionnaire)(%)
ScientificgroundingGreen Products
Environmental

educationfromkindergarten
Public information
Media coverage

dissemination
raising publicawareness

Promote the idea that riding a bicycle`attractive'

is

Other

Overseas (N=304)
Japan (N=293)

No response

Note: Please

note that the totals for the various

regions

Figureshould add up to 200%.

15. Strategies

for changing

lifestyles.

Comments

from Respondents

Respondents

were also asked to give their opinions about lifestyle alteration.

A selection

of

their answers follows.

• It is my opinion that the greatest challenge we are facing as a global society is the grossoverconsumption of goods and services in our lifestyles. This is more the case in developed
countries. We have to learn to live within our means. This is especially the case now withthe ever-increasing population. I also believe that any change in this direction is at least twogenerations away! But it is up to us, at present, to prepare the next generations to make, and• live comfortably with, these changes. (Canada, 1998)•

Changing

our current

and returning
to apply312

lifestyleto sustainable

the village

community

requiresagricultural
culturerediscoveringand reliving

production.

In otherin today's

increasingwords,

our traditional

cultureswe should

find ways

urbanizationand moderniza-

tion. We can learn a lot from the past and from the lives of rural communities. (Philippines,
1997)•

I think that a scientific and technologicalapproach is very important . More emphasisshould be put on advancing technology while also promoting changes in consumer
lifestyles. I also think that it is useless to promote energy conservation by just shouting
about it. We need to make people feel that energy conservation is fashionable and clearlyshow them the benefits of such activities. (Japan, 1998)• Although my job entails working for environmental protection, it is difficult to sacrificeconvenienceto change my daily lifestyle. I think that lifestyles can only change if one has
the time to make it happen. I would like to start by using fewer disposable products. While
it is important to take action on an individual level, I think that corporations should also
have training sessions for their employees to help raise awareness of environmental conservation issues. (Japan, 1998)•

In regions where people are undernourished , electricity, phone, water lack seriously, it isquite impossible to simplify lifestyle. (Republic of Benin, 2000)•

I suspect that the reason why lifestyles cannot be changed is that it is difficult to understandquantitatively exactly how much impact our behaviors have on the environment. Using the
LCA method, etcetera, I think that we must use pictures that can be easily understood byanyone to show consumers the burden that a particular product places upon the environment. I also think that we must inform people in more easily understood terms how muchenergy would be saved simply by everyone making changes in their lifestyles. (Japan,
1999)• We have made great progress in public understanding that there is a problem , but now weface the much harder challenge of dramatically changing individual and collective life
styles to reduce consumption, population and ultimately environmental impact. (Australia,
2000)• Environmental problems can be solved only if people all over the world are prepared tochange their lifestyles from consumption-oriented to use-oriented. High moral and ethicalvalues are needed for this. Developed nations and "successful" individuals lack these values. (India, 1998)• I feel that the consumerist lifestyle of western/northern society is unsustainable and silly .
Inner values and spiritual growth would help to overcome this and be far more healthy—
yet materialism makes it more and more difficult to listen to the inner voice, to nature, tosoul. (Germany, 2000)

313

3.4

Environmental

Education

Manyof the opinions

mentaleducation.

obtainedfromthe questionnaires

In the 1993 and 2000

point

questionnaires,out the importance

we raised

the issueof environ-of environmental

education.

Institutions'

Role in Promoting"Which institution

Environmental

Education

andInstructional

do you think should play the key role in promotingtion and instructional

activities?

Write the four most important

Activities

environmental

options

educa -in order of impor-tance."The top three responses in each region, including Japan, were the same for the question.
Looking at the overseas total, the largest group of respondents selected "Schools" first, followed by "National and local governments" and "Mass media." "Individual households" were
attributed a relatively small role, which was the highest in Japan at 14%. (2000 Questionnaire)
Weighted Regional Results*Weighting=((% of #1 x 4)+(% of #2 x 3)+(% of #3 x 2)+(% of #4 x 1))+10
A

B

C

E

F

G

H

(%)

Japan [N=311]
U.S. & Canada [N=93]
Western Europe [N=88]
Asia [N=81]
Latin America [N=26]
Africa [N=53]
Oceania [N=17]
Eastern Europe & former Soviet Union[N=19]
Middle East [N=11]
Overseas Total [N=391]
A-Schools
B=National and local governments
C=Corporations
D=Citizens' groups or environmental
NGOs
E=International
environmental
NGOs
F=Environment-related
research institutions
G=Mass media
H=Individual households

Figure314

16. Whichinstitutions

should promote

environmental

education

I=Otherand instructional

activities?

Age to Start Environmental"Is environmental
what

education

Education
includedin the Schoolin the school

Curriculum

curriculumof your country?

If so, fromage is it started?"

Although there were regional differences in the answers to the question, the 4-6 and 7-9 age
ranges were each cited by approximately one-third of the overseas respondents in aggregate.
In Latin America, Oceania and North America, the 4-6 age range received more than 40% of
the responses, while this age range was cited noticeably less often in Japan and the Middle
East. (2000 Questionnaire)

4 to 6 yearsof age7 to 910 to 12

13+

No response(%)

Japan [N=143]
U.S. & Canada [N=54]
Western Europe [N=61]
Asia [N=69]

1

Latin America [N=15]
Africa [N=43]

2

Oceania [N=13]
Eastern Europe & former Soviet Union[N=17]

0

Middle East [N=8]Overseas Total [N=283]

FigureComments

education.

from Respondents

A sampling of comments•

17. What age to start environmental

concerning

environmental

education

follows.

If people knew the problem , they would be at least 50% of the way already toward the solution of the problem. (Philippines, 1997)•

There is no urgency felt by people in developing countries about the environmental crisis .
Unless an environmental disaster happens, people do not care so much about how they canhelp save the planet. It is imperative that we come up with an effective public awarenesscampaign to educate people on how to take care of the environment. (Philippines, 1999)

315

•

Improve people's quality (of life) is one of the most important things for environmental
problems and it is also the basic decisive element to many confronting problems. Moreenvironmental funds are needed for education esp. in developing countries. (China, 2000)•

As soon as all people have been made to understand why they must be environmentallyfriendly, what they must conserve and how they can do. it. This is why I think environmental education should be practiced 10 times what is being carried out now, I very muchagree with this ( Environmental education from kindergarten upward.) (Botswana, 1999)•

Where environmental education is concerned , much more important issue seems to beenvironmental democracy/people participation in environmental decisions. (Poland, 2000)•

Public education through an informed & empowered free media is the key to public debatethat will resolve these complex issues. (United Kingdom, 2000)• When one lives in a developed nation such as Japan , the circumstances of the even greater
environmental destruction in developing countries are not readily conveyed. The publicshould be made aware that environmental problems are also a North-South problem, andthe media should report the true condition of the people harmed the most. (Japan, 2000)• I would like children in future to be raised with a sensitivity that allows them to relate notjust to humankind, but to various living entities as well. To accomplish this, I think thatenvironmental education should be rigorously implemented. I want to bring about a time
when global environmental problems can be discussed in family conversations. (Japan,
2000)

316

3.5

Current

State

The 21st century
to waterlationis being

problems

Resources

called the "Water

that have become

increases,

surveyedof Wateragricultural

the water

more

Century"
severebecausein each part of the world

land use, industrialization

problemfromof the pressing

the perspectives

and urbanization.
of bothqualityneed for solutions
as a resultof popu-

Reflecting

this, weand quantity

in the 2001

questionnaire.

Qualityof WaterUsedin Daily Life"To whatextentis the qualityof waterused in dailylife, including

drinking

water,

deteriorat-

ing in your country?"

As Figure 18 indicates, there are marked differences between the regions in the quality of thewater used in daily life. In Africa, 47% of respondents cited an "Acute problem," which was
followed by 42% of respondents in Asia, 36% in the Middle East, and 29% in North America.
Conversely, 31% of Western European respondents selected the "No problem..." option, anotably higher response than 10% in the other regions. (2001 Questionnaire)

Acute problem

Mild problem

Okay for now,but
a problem in future

No problem
now or in future

Don't know
& No response(%)
Japan [N=292]
U.S. & Canada [N=58]12

Western Europe [N=84]
Asia [N=83]

2

Latin America [N=35]0Africa [N=55]

0

Oceania [N=30]
Eastern Europe & former Soviet
Union [N=22]
Middle East [N=22]0Overseas Total [N=392]

2

Developed Regions [N=434]

2

Developing Regions [N=173]

1

00Figure18.

Quality of water used in daily life.

Quantity of Water Used in Daily Life"To what extent
of waterFigureis waterquantitya problem

used in daily life, agriculture

19 shows

the sufficiency

that thereof water, considering

the combined

supplyand industry?"

are also significant

quantities.

in your country

Excludingdifferences
WesternbetweenEurope,regionsin the reportingof

more than 70% of respondents317

in all regions selected one of the "Acute water shortage," "Mild water shortage" and "Okay for
now, but shortages in future" options. In contrast, 54% of Western Europeans selected "No
problem...," the largest response for this option, indicating a large number of respondents thatare optimistic about water volume as well as water quality. (2001 Questionnaire)
Acute water
shortage

Mild water
shortage

Okay for now,but
No problem
shortages in future now or in future

Don't know
& No response(%)

Japan [N=292]
U.S. & Canada [N=58]2

WesternEurope [N=84]

1

Asia [N=83]

2

Latin America[N=35]0Africa [N=55]

2

Oceania[N=30]

0Eastern Europe & former Soviet
Union [N=22]0

MiddleEast [N=22]00
2Overseas Total [N=392]
DevelopedRegions [N=434]

4Developing Regions [N=173]

2

Figure19. Quantity of water used in daily life.

Comments from Respondents
Respondents expressed the following

opinions concerning

the quality and quantityof waterresources.

•

Drinking water/food problems have caused death every minute in developing countries
and water-borne diseases and teeth decay. (Kenya, 2001)•

It is very essential to act first on local damage . Many people are killed or made ill in developing countries by dirty water, lack of sanitation, fumes from cooking with food, and dust
and lead in city air. Soils impoverished by erosion or poisoned with badly used chemicals
make it harder for developing countries to feed their people. Solving these environmental
problems brings the biggest gains to health and wealth. (India, 1999)•

Vietnam , our country, has many environmental problems. I am especially interested inwater pollution. The polluted water affects our health, soil, agriculture—so our country isimplementing a lot of work to solve these problems. (Vietnam, 1998)•

Watershed

management

are actively

involved

launchedby central

are to be made318

is gaining
in supporting

groundin India . Local

the watershed

and state governments.

sustainable,

local rural youths

If watershed
oughtgovernments

development

and communities

programmes

relatedto be equipped

policiesand schemes
and programmeswith necessary

knowl-

edge and skills for carrying out the various activities. Introduction of a vocational course
on watershed management in institutions located in rural areas is essentially needed to foster water harvesting and conservation practices and to effectively deal with much larger
issues, such as sustainable development of natural resources and improvement of the livelihoods of local people. (India, 2001)•

Egypt is reformulating in 2000 her environmental strategy of 1995. Factories disposing
waste water into the Nile have now stopped doing that and Nile water is cleaner, but its biodiversity is still suffering. (Egypt, 2000)•

1. Domestic garbage should be disposed of properly because most of the developed countries are not adopting the hygienic regulations.
2. Sewage water should be disposed of in a proper way, keeping the sea and the oceansclean.
3. Shipping pollution should be strictly restricted. (Saudi Arabia, 1998)•

I had the occasion to investigate the problem of water pollution last year and was astonishedto find the pollution of water due to nitric acid and nitrous compounds originating with agriculture was a fairly severe problem around the world. I think that problems with water
quantity and quality, which also involve foodstuffs, will become an even bigger problem infuture. In some ways, I think it may become apparent more rapidly than global warming.
(Japan, 2001)•

In my country , there is a great need to educate people against ground and undergroundwater pollution. (Kenya, 1999)• Environment conservation at a global level is a reality of life and should not be taken as
casual or as a fashion. In nature, 'soil' is the only commodity to change 'seed' into a fiberor plant and that soil is being degraded by injudicious use of water and chemicals, thereby
inviting the problems of waterlogging and salinization. Soil erosion is causing desertification. In order to check these problems, individuals should step forward to work for the
future, keeping the past as his experiences. (India, 1997)

319

3.6

Endocrine"What

Disruptors

is your awarenessof endocrine

disruptors?"

Endocrine disruptors, the so-called environmental hormones, are external substances that enter
into the bodies of humans and wildlife and have adverse effects on the workings of the naturally secreted hormones in their bodies. Figure 20 shows what extent the respondents were
aware of the dangers of endocrine disruptors. In the overseas total, the most selected option
was "We should establish a stricter testing system for all existing and future synthetic chemicals and publish the test results." This was followed by "It will be too late if we wait for scientific proof, so we should act prudently with regard to all synthetic chemicals." and "Since
scientific revelations are ongoing, we should avoid using the chemicals currently thought topose hazards." The responses selecting ". ..I don't sense any hazard" were extremely low, atless than 10% in each region, indicating that many respondents are aware of the problems associated with endocrine disruptors. (2001 Questionnaire)

A

B

C

E

F

(%)

Japan [N=292]
U.S. & Canada [N=58]
Western Europe [N=84]
Asia [N=83]
Latin America [N=35]
Africa [N=55]
Oceania [N=30]
Eastern Europe & former Soviet Union[N=22]
Middle East
Overseas[N=22]

Total [N=392]

Developed

Regions[N=434]Developing

Regions[N=173]

A=Since the scientific basis for them is unclear, I don't sense any urgent hazard.
B=Since scientific revelations are ongoing, we should avoid using the chemicals currently thought to pose hazards.
C=It will be too late if we wait for scientific proof, so we should act prudently with regard to all synthetic chemicals.
D=We should establish a stricter testing system for all existing and future synthetic chemicals and publish the test results.
E=Other
F=Don't Know.

Figure320

20. Awarenessof endocrine

disruptor

problems.

Comments
The following

•

from

Respondents

comments

were offeredconcerning

endocrine

disruptors.

It is becoming more and more apparent that global environmental problems are of a broad
scope. In particular, I would like to see more attention paid to environmental hormones(substances that have been internally altered), which have largely gone unnoticed and may
be linked to the very existence of human beings. (Japan, 1999)•

I feel a lack of opportunity to comment on problems other than global warming and energy .
My own current concern is about chemicals (estrogen-mimics) in the environment affecting the reproductive processes of all animals (including humans) everywhere. (United
Kingdom, 1998)• My specialty is endocrine disruptors. It is difficultto find the funding to prove damage, andthen because it is difficultto trace exposuresto chemicalswhose effects may be delayed foryears or decades, and it is not ethically possible to directly experiment on human subjects,
it is virtually impossible to arrive at absolutely conclusive proof of damage. Yet, our large
increases in the incidence rates of certain developmental, immune, and reproductive problems, cancers and other diseases in human and wildlife indicatethat we and the animal foodsources we depend on are threatened. And the proofs implicating certain families of chemicals in this threat are very suggestive.We should vastly lower the proof necessaryto restrict
chemicals, and make it necessary to prove safety before chemicals and bio-engineered
products can be marketed. (United States, 2001)•

Recently, dioxins and environmental hormones have become the center of attention , and I
feel that there has been a sudden rise in people's awareness of environmental problems. In
a few years, around the millennium, Japan will probably shift to a social system that exists
in harmony with the environment. Who will take the first step in that direction? I think thatwill be a time of competition for policy makers. (Japan, 1998)•

The problem of environmental hormones has cropped up , and attention has been drawn to
the implications for the ecology and wild animals since "Silent Spring," but human regard
for the natural earth, which is the well-spring of the human race in both material and spiritual senses is exceedingly weak. (Japan, 1999)

3213.7 Future Predictions (After 30 Years)"As we standglobalat the beginningenvironmentof the 21stafter 30 years?

century

Indicate, whatdo you predictthe perception

will happen

to thein your country."

As many as 68% predicted that the overall global environment would be worse (a combinationof the "Moderately worse," "Much worse," and "So bad as to imperil human survival"
responses) 30 years hence, indicating that many hold a pessimistic view about the future of the
global environment. We discerned from the responses to the other options that it would difficult to expect much improvement, but within them a relatively large number of respondents
gave the "Waste treatment problems...," "Urban/transport problems," and "Air pollution"
options optimistic predictions. (2001 Questionnaire)
(%)
A

C

B

F

E

G

Overall state of the global
environment
Population/poverty

problems

Drinking

problems

2

Air pollution

2water/foodRiver/marine

pollution

2

Forest depletion/dessertification

2

Biodiversity
Global warming problems,
including energy problems

2

Waste treatment problems,
including chemical substances

2

Urban/transport

problems
A=MuchE=Much2
betterworse

FigureComments

21. Prediction

respondents

322

of the global environment

D=Moderately worse
G=Don't know

after 30 years.

from Respondents

When asked to comment•

B=Moderately better
C=No change
F=So bad as to imperil human survival

on their predictions

for the overall state of the global environment,

gave a variety of opinions. A sampling follows.

The current

deteriorationof the global

continuanceof our modern

society

one thatinto

industrial

lives in better

environmentsociety.

balancehas created

The transitionwiththe available

a crisisfromthat will affecta highly

resources

theexploitative

is likely

to be apainful one, and it is conceivable that such a transition may in fact lead to the extinction of
our species. But it seems more likely that some pockets of humanity will survive and again
repopulate the earth, though perhaps taking a rather different approach to the available
resources. It is important to keep in mind the historical perspective over the long sweep ofcivilizations in the past 4,000 years or so. (Switzerland, 2000)• The timber firms are cutting trees with little interest in replanting . Mining firms are clearing forests and vegetation on the earth's surface without any serious plans for reforestation,or restoration of top soil. Dangerous gases from garbage and waste from industries are
emitted daily without any scientific monitoring of the quantity. The developing and least
developed countries will face serious environmental problems both in the atmosphere andon land in future. (Ghana, 1997)•

Natural hazards and risks will increase . People (poor people) from and erdeveloped

coun-tries will suffer much more. (Colombia, 2001)•

Lack of awareness of environmental issues and challenges by the top decision -makers andpoliticians of developing countries and absence of sense of responsibility for the future generations by leaders is the main reason for me to be pessimistic with regard to the futureenvironmental condition. (Ethiopia, 2001)•

The economic growth of developed countries is stable to some extent, but from now ondeveloping countries will come to the forefront with respect to environmental problems .
Without violating the rights of developing countries to economic growth, we must recommend increased efforts to promote environmental preservation. (Japan, 1997)•

To make the global environment "better" in 30 years time•

I am optimistic about future environmental conditions . I have full faith in the creativity and, diligence, research, a system,
development and consensus are required. However, when one looks at the Bush administration's response, one becomes painfully aware of the difficulty facing anyone trying tochange the thinking "it's okay if its good for me or it's okay if it's good for the developmentof my country." In the 21st century, I think we will need to seek prosperity from a new perspective that is enlightened, kind and warm under a strong leader. (Japan, 2001)

tremendous potential of Indian people and the world community, which I am sure will findout desired ways and means to make this planet earth more beautiful, loving and livable .
(India, 2001)323

A 10-Year
Akio

Perspective

Morishima

Chairman,Institutefor

GlobalEnvironmental

Strategies;

Professor

Emeritus,

NagoyaUniversity

The "Questionnaire on Environmental Problems and the Survival of Humankind" was devisedby the Asahi Glass Foundation in association with the Earth Summit (United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. That was the year
the Foundation established the Blue Planet Prize to recognize researchers with notableachievements in environmental research and persons or institutions that have distinguishedthemselves in the promotion of environmental preservation. Since then, the Foundation has
continued to administer the questionnaire annually, marking the survey's 10th anniversary lastyear. Now, in anticipation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (Rio+10) in
Johannesburg in 2002, we would like to review the questionnaire results of these past 10 years.
The questionnaire's purpose is to solicit the opinions and gauge the awareness of environmental experts around the world about present and future global environmental problems.
The questionnaire is mailed out to people specializing in environmental issues -in research
institutions, governments, private-sector companies and NGOs. Each year approximately
3,000 environmental experts are selected from the Foundation's list, which includes experts
from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) database. Approximately half of thisnumber is selected from Japan and half from other countries. The response rate is usuallyclose to 20%. Although the respondents are not necessarily the same each year, we believe thatsome may certainly be repeat respondents. Please note that, except for responses fromJapan,Western Europe, United States & Canada and Asia (outside Japan), the absolute number of responses is small, on the order of 20 to 30 responses, for several regions (the Middle
East, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, for example). Furthermore, the responses
are segmented into the various options set out in the questionnaire. As a result, many of theresults may not be statistically significant. Nonetheless, at the very least, trends can be discerned in the compiled results at the regional or category level. Moreover, it is possible tounderstand how the perceptions of environmental experts have changed by examining trends
in the 10 years of data.
Some questions are kept the same on the questionnaire each year to provide a fixed pointof reference. The first involves the Environmental Doomsday Clock. The second addresses theAgenda 21 action plan. The idea of a doomsday clock, which asks respondents to use thehands of a clock to express their perception of the state of crisis regarding human survival, wasfirst used to assess the risk of nuclear annihilation and is not new. However, the proposal toinclude a doomsday clock in the questionnaire attracted considerable interest in 1992 in thewake of the Rio Summit when humankind's survival was called into question as a result ofenvironmental destruction. In each of the following years too, the media reported the positionof the clock hands when presenting the survey results. It is safe to say that, as a fixed point ofreference, the changes in the position of the clock hands have become the questionnaire's hall-324

mark.
On the clock, times ranging between 3:01 and 6:00 indicate a "slightly concerned"
response, while the 6:01 to 9:00 quadrant corresponds to "fairly concerned" and the 9:01 to
12:00 quadrant to "extremely concerned." Although there is, of course, no objective standard
to quantify peoples' feelings of unease, the clock hands do seem to advance and retreat according to such factors as the course of negotiations over the framework convention on climatechange or other environmentally related proceedings in the international community. In 1992,
the year of the Rio Summit, the clock hands were set to 7:49 in the "fairly concerned" quadrant. Each year the hands advanced until they peaked at 9:13 in the "extremely concerned"
quadrant in 1996. The following year, in 1997, the hands retreated to 9:04, which can be attributed to heightened expectations for the 3rd Session of the Conference of the Parties to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3) in Kyoto. In subsequent
years, the hands have crept forward (except in 2000), reaching 9:08 again in 2001, which may
be ascribed to the sense of crisis produced by the breakdown of negotiations at COP6 at The
Hague. This interpretation of clock hand movement is no more than speculation, but it isimportant to note that the world's experts are "extremely concerned" about the state of the crisis. In addition, the sense of crisis among Japanese experts, which lagged slightly behind thatof foreign experts, has come to approach the world average over time. We think that thisreflects deepened concern about global warming.
A question involving the Agenda 21 action plan, the second topic used as a fixed pointof reference on the questionnaire, has been asked every year since 1993, the year after Agenda
21 was adopted at the Rio Summit. The question asks the experts about the progress , or lackof it, made toward the Agenda 21 items in their own country and the reasons for the results
quoted. Although the responses can be expected to differ according to the respondent's country and its level of economic development, the overall results for the past nine years reveal that
progress continues to be made in environmental education, activities by local governments andcitizen's groups, and environmental measures by industry. However, there has been no
progress in transforming the fundamental structures of industry and society. We have not seen
any headway with items such as population and poverty problems or lifestyle alteration (paradigm shifts in the community). The Rio+10 Summit is expected to provide a progress reporton the Agenda 21 action plan, particularly with regard to the problem of poverty. The resultsof this questionnaire suggest, nevertheless, that we may not be able to expect very much on thisscore.
The questionnaire also asks questions about a diverse range of contemporary problems.
Examples include questions about global warming (the Kyoto Protocol), alternative energy
sources, environmental taxes, lifestyles and water problems. The responses to these questions
may differ according to the country or region, but are informative in many cases.
I have had the pleasure of participating in the formulation of this questionnaire since
1994. The Asahi Glass Foundation staff design the questions and compile the results by region ,gender and occupational category (government, corporate or NGO), and then it is my task toprovide advice throughout the stages of analysis. I stand in great admiration of the efforts ofthe staff that have steadfastly produced this questionnaire for 10 years. I believe that325

researchers

and the media

of a consistentsion-makers
tinuespolicy,alike hold this questionnaire,in the highestthat use the results

to be supported

regard.

as a reference

I think

there

in policywhich

has been conducted

are also numerous
making.

on the basis

governmentdeci-

I hope that this researchcon-well into the future.

Closing
Since it was first conducted in 1992, the Asahi Glass Foundation's "Questionnaire on
Environmental Problems and the Survival of Humankind" has attracted interest in Japan andoverseas from the general media as well as newspapers and magazines specializing in environmental issues. The survey, as a compilation of the opinions of international specialists concerned with global environmental problems, has also been mentioned in the annual white
paper on the environment published by Japan's Ministry of the Environment.
The survey's question about humanity in crisis, which uses a Doomsday Clock, hasbeen prominently featured in print and television media. The press also cites its findings on
issues concerning individuals, such as lifestyle changes, and issues concerning nations, suchas the Agenda 21 action plan. This suggests that the questionnaire has come to be regarded asa reliable index of opinion on environmental issues.
We owe a large debt of gratitude to the many respondents, who have taken the time tofill out the questionnaire, and to Prof. Akio Morishima, who supervised the questionnaire's formulation and administration over much of the last decade, for his part in bringing it to prominence. We would also like to thank the members of the media who have helped the"Questionnaire on Environmental Problems and the Survival of Humankind" to generate
worldwide interest in environmental issues and their resolution.
The Asahi Glass Foundation is determined to continue conducting this survey to focus
attention on the opinions of people working to solve environmental problems around theworld.

326