The Winnersof the Blue

1999

PlanetPrize

1999Blue

Biology,of theStanfordCenterUniversity

Prize
Professor Qu Geping(P.R.C.)

Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich(U.S.A.)
Director

Planetof Conservation

Chairmanof the Environmental

and Resources
the National

Conservation
People's

Congress

Protection
Committee

ofof China

The opening images for the 1999 Blue Planet Prize Awards
Ceremony
captured the essence of the theme "Earth, the planet
brimming with color." It portrays a fresh view of the significance ofthe planet being blue in color and the notion that the Earth's "color"is derived from the vitality and diversity of the life it shelters.

111

Their Imperial
Highnesses
Prince and Princess Akishino
toast
the laureatesat theCongratulatory
Party.

His Imperial

Highness

PrinceAkishino

congratulates

the laureates.

Dr. Jiro Kondo, chairman of the Selection
Committee,
explains
the rationale
for thedeterminationof theyear's winners.

Thomas S. Foley, Ambassador of the United States toJapan (left), and Chen Jian, Ambassador of the People's
Republic of China to Japan (right), congratulate the laureates.

Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich accepts the 1999 Blue Planet
Prize from Foundation
Chairman Jiro Furumoto.

112

Prof. Qu Geping accepting
—

•

raze.

the 1999 Blue Planet

Profile

Dr. PaulDirectorof the Centerof Conservation

R. Ehrlich

Biology,

Stanford

University

Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1932
Born in May in the United States.
1953
B.A., University of Pennsylvania.
1955
M.Sc., University of Kansas.
1957
Ph.D., University of Kansas.
1957-1959 Research Associate, NIH Project–Genetics and Behavior of Parasitic Mites(Chicago Academy of Sciences and Department of Entomology, University of
Kansas).
1959-1962 Assistant Professor, Biological Sciences, Stanford University.
1962-1966 AssociateProfessor, Biological Sciences, Stanford University.
1966—
Professor,Biological Sciences, Stanford University.
1966-1976 Director, Graduate Studies Biological Sciences, Stanford University.
19771982
19841985
1987
1989
1989-1990

1990
1991
1992
1995
1998

Bing Professor of Population Studies, Stanford University.
Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Director, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University.
Member, National Academy of Sciences.
Gold Medal, WWF International.
UNEP Global 500 Roll of Honour.
President, American Institute of Biological Sciences.
Crafoord Prize, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
MacArthur Prize Fellowship.
Member, European Academy of Sciences and Arts.
Sasakawa Prize (with Anne Ehrlich), United Nations Environment Programme.
Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement (with Anne Ehrlich).

Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich closely observed populations of butterflies over a 35-year period and analyzed the relationship of environmental factors to boom and bust cycles in the populations.
This study led him to co-found the new field of conservation biology. He also co-authored thetheory of co-evolution,which attempts to explain the mutual effects of multiple species on survival and breeding. He came to understand that since humankind was just one of many interdependent species evolved in a process of co-evolution, maintenance of the current ecology,
which sustained a great diversity of species, was essential to the continued survival of thehuman race.
He concluded that the current and ongoing explosion of growth in the human popula-113

tion was a major cause of habitat destruction and published his belief in his 1968 book, The
Population Bomb. Well in advance of the Club of Rome's pronouncement of the "Limits toGrowth," he pointed out that there were limits to human resource consumption. More than 3million copies of this book sold around the world, which helped to spur the first intergovernmental conference on population. In recent years, he has advocated that women's educationand emancipation is one of the most important strategies for controlling population.
In his 1981 book, Extinction, he raised the general public's awareness of the dangers ofthe disappearance of species. He also played an important role in 1983 in warning about theenvironmental dangers of nuclear war and predicting the destructive impact on the ecosystem.
With his colleagues and wife, Anne, who is also a biologist and a constant companion,
Dr. Ehrlich is active in advocating policies and advancing research that promote the global conservation of biodiversity.

114EssayOur

Environmental
Dr. PaulFutureR. Ehrlich

July 2001

The biggest question about our future—the one to which present and future generations must
pay much more attention—is the same one I outlined when I received the Blue Planet Prizeseveral years ago. It is a question of especial importance to today's young people, who will beliving with the environmental consequences of human activities today. The question iswhether Homo sapiens can successfully find a way to change from exhausting its natural capital, while fighting over what remains, to establishing a sustainable society. Such a society
would be one living peacefully on the income stream from its capital while taking effective
measures to increase equity within and between groups and nations, to suppress war and otherforms of violence, and to avoid public health disasters. That means humanity must find a wayof successfully dealing with the "human predicament." That is, learning both how to live
within the constraints set by Earth's life-support systems, and how to live with each other in
unprecedentedly large and technically sophisticated societies. We must especially strive to
avoid great losses of biodiversity, the most important part of our natural capital—the living
parts of the ecosystems that support our lives. Biodiversity loss and/or rapid climate change
could lead to a disastrousecological collapse and social breakdown. And if current trends continue, that is precisely where society is headed. Sadly, in the short time that has elapsed since
I was honored, the leadership in my nation has moved in exactly the wrong direction.
Three major factors are multiplying together to produce the crucial ecological dimension of the predicament;the destruction of natural ecosystems.The first is vast overpopulation.
Earth now has more than 6 billion human beings—on the order of three times the number thatmight be considered "optimal" given current patterns of consumption and behavior. Those patterns are involved in the second factor, runaway consumption among the rich. It is not just the
numbers of people that cause environmental degradation,but also how those people behave.
And the rich, with their addiction to such things as commuting to work by automobile, large
air-conditionedhomes filled with electric appliances,and large-scale consumptionof meat andseafood, are putting enormous stress on ecosystems.Additionally,the poor are trying to "catchup" and adopt the patterns of overconsumption now in place in Japan and the West.
The third factor is the use of faulty technologies and unfortunate socio-economic andpolitical arrangements to service that consumption. Today's reckless dependence on fossil
fuels is a case of the use of faulty technologies. That dependence is leading society into a culde-sac since it will take many decades for large-scale deployment of alternative, more environmentally benign technologies. A prime example is employing gas-guzzling sport utility

115

vehicles to commute. A better solution to getting to and from work would be using the small,energy efficient gas-electric hybrid vehicles that have been pioneered by Japanese firms. Still
better would be installing comprehensive and safe mass transit systems in every large city. And
best of all would be redesigning cities to minimize the need to commute, allowing many people to work "electronically" from home and most of the rest to get to offices and factories by
walking or bicycling. But here again the poor are striving to emulate the behavior of the richand going through their own version of the Victorian industrial revolution, including taking up
the developed world's addiction to automobiles, rather than advancing to more sensible andefficient ways of meeting human needs.
And, of course, all this behavior is encouraged by political systems that are incapableof taking the long view. Economic systems that promote consumption, and gross inequities
that give huge numbers of people little or no say in the kinds of lives they lead. Today, sometwo-billion people live in awful poverty. That's more people than existed a century ago. Is it
progress?
These three factors are combining to destroy Earth's ecosystems—communitiesofplants, animals and microorganisms interacting with each other and their physical environments. Society depends on those ecosystems for an array of indispensable services and goods.
The services include amelioration of climate, provision of freshwater, flood control, creationand maintenance of the fertile soil that is essential to agriculture and forestry, recycling of
nutrients and pollination of crops. The serious deterioration of one service alone—the control
of potential pests of crops—could bring about the collapse of civilization. Ecosystem goods
include fish from the sea and bodies of freshwater (which supply a crucial protein supplement
to the diets of many poor people), timber and a large portion of the medicines used by all societies.
In addition to the degradation of ecosystems, another key element to the human predicament is the decay of the human epidemiological environment. Overpopulation, poverty andmisallocation of public health efforts are increasing our vulnerability to lethal epidemics.
Many diseases cannot persist in small populations. For example, measles requires societies ofhundreds of thousands of people to maintain itself. Humanity is now pushing large groups ofpeople into close contact with the animal reservoirs of infectious disease, and many of thosepeople are malnourished and thus immune-compromised. This creates near-ideal conditions
for novel diseases to transfer into the human population and cause vast epidemics. AIDS is
likely to be only the first such transfer in recent times. A similar problem is created by patternsof agriculture, such as the Chinese pig-duck system in which swine, fowl and people arebrought into close contact, making the emergence of killer flu strains all the more likely. The
deterioration of the epidemiological environment is also a result of insanely stupid patterns ofantibiotic overuse, which has guaranteed the huge problems now being created by antibiotic
resistance in bacteria. In addition, rapid transport systems now make it possible for epidemics
and "super-bacteria" to be disseminated worldwide very rapidly.
Solving humanity's interrelated dilemmas of ecological collapse—a degraded epidemiological environment, gross economic inequity, violence, including a substantial but little-recognized residual threat of large-scale nuclear war, and cultural homogenization among116

the rich accompaniedby ethnic fragmentation among the poor—will be very difficult.That isdue to the failure of cultural evolution in social organization and ethics to keep pace with cultural evolution in technological development. The situation has not been helped by most people's lack of understandingthat the economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the environment.
We will need economic strength and ever more clever technologies to help us make a transition to a sustainable society.But they alone can't accomplish the task. Reducing human numbers humanely and curbing consumption among the rich while increasing it among the poor,
among other things, will also be necessary. And in order to do that, people must find ways tospeed and direct human cultural evolution without a concomitant loss of human freedom.
That job is made all the more difficult because the seriousness of the human predicament is still unknown to the vast majority of the general public and decision-makers worldwide. Although environmental scientists understand the general directions in which humanity
should be moving to solve it's environmentalproblems, the policy response of society remains
pathetic. As a result, real progress in solving environmental problems requires notjust greater
efforts from the ecological and physical sciences,but a major commitment from the behavioral
sciences, which have the potential to help develop ways to improve that response.
The behavioral sciences can give humanity a much better understanding of the ways inwhich culture—humanity's vast store of non-genetic information—evolves. Culture determines most interesting human behavior. And a crucial aspect of that behavior is humanity's
treatment of its life-support systems. With the discovery that there are only some
26,000-38,000 genes in the human genome, it has become even more obvious that gene shortage has put the final nail in the coffin of "evolutionarypsychology." That discipline has beenlong on psychology, but based on a distorted view of evolutionary theory. But beyond theweak evolutionary Underpinningsof evolutionary psychology, gene shortage shows that wecannot look to our genes to either explain or modify most of our behavior. The unitary,
unchanging "human nature," once thought to be invented by gods and later assumed to be a
product of genetic evolution,is non-existent. Comprehendinghow cultural evolution produces
the vast diversity of "human natures" may help us to discover how to reconfigure social, political and economic incentives and cut through barriers of ignorance and denial to allow society
to turn onto a path to sustainability.It may show us how to change the course of cultural evolution in beneficial ways.
Some of the most important products of human cultural evolution are ethical concerns,
including concerns for non-human organisms and the environment in general. Fortunately,
cultures already have been evolving in the direction of broader environmental ethics. Social
scientists need to look carefully at that evolution, both within the scientific community and insociety as a whole. They must pay special attention to the extinction crisis, the related erosionof natural capital and the flows of services that capital provides. Ways must be found to accelerate the evolution of environmental ethics, as well of course, as the ethics that govern how
human beings treat one another.
The problem of generating concern and appropriate actions will involve a much heavier participation in public debate than most scientists are accustomed to, but which has beenshownto be possible by the success of the "nuclear winter" efforts of the early 1980s.The cur-117

rent activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could serve as a partial model of a basic mechanism to expose society to the full range of population-environmentresource issues and their ethical implications. The IPCC involves hundreds of scientists fromdiverse disciplines in a continuing evaluation of the global warming situation. The goal is toreach consensus on the technical issues related to that contentious topic and give society anddecision-makers advice on how to ameliorate its probable worst negative effects.
A start toward creating a broadly focused mechanism for mitigating impacts on ecosystems has been made by a group of environmental scientists attempting to organize anIntergovernmental Panel on Ecosystem Change (IPEC). Like the IPCC, it would be a processthat is transparent to all participants as well as to the general public and decision-makers. IPEC
will also strive to involve very broad participation from non-scientists, ranging from ethicists
to representatives of the public, even more than was done in the nuclear winter and IPCC
examples. We certainly now have tools—satellite TV, the Internet, fax machines, conference
calls—that would make wide communication, debate and consensus building feasible.
Many of the necessary ideas have already been generated, the tools for spreading new
ideas now abound, and environmental leadership is increasingly appearing inside and outside
the scientific community. The needed changes in ethics are under way, and with focused effort,
scientists may learn how to accelerate them. But the political will has not been generated, andthe fate of humanity still rests too much in the hands of politicians and other decision-makers
who are utterly ignorant of how the world works. Our challenge, and that of young people
today, is to educate them or remove them from positions of power. The task is daunting, but thebenefits of success would be immense. As I have often pointed out, it is highly unlikely thathuman beings will ever create a utopia, but collectively we could create a much better futurethan the one to which we're headed toward today.

118

Lecture

Keeping

the Blue Planet

A Multidisciplinary
Dr. Paul

Humanity

Habitable:
Challenge

R. Ehrlich

now faces the most daunting challenge of the few hundred thousand years since our

species first appeared.

Homo sapiens has become

a global force and is altering Earth's bios-

phere at an accelerating pace, creating what has become known as the "human predicament."
The scale of the human enterprise, as measured by energy use, has increased some twentythree-fold since 1850.1 Ironically, humanity's very successes, as demonstrated
by a sixfold
increase in population size during those 150 years, dazzling technological achievements, andan explosively
civilization.

expandingappropriationof resources,

are undermining

the sustainability

Most of the planet's land areas have been altered almost beyond recognitionof

to ful-fill human needs; not even the ocean depths and polar extremes remain untouched. Most, if notall, of society's observed and measurable impacts on its life support systems are now negative,
indicating

an overshoot of Earth's human carrying capacity. The enormous

ing us is to harness that brilliant technology
negative trends and create a sustainable

challenge now fac-

and all the wisdom we can summon to reverse thefuture.

Driving Forces
The factors that are driving the environmental impact (I) of the scale of human activities canbe viewed in terms of the I = PAT identity, where "P" is the size of the population, "A" is affluence (measured as consumption per capita), and "T" measures the environmental impacts oftechnologies and the economic, social and political arrangements involved in servicing that
consumption.' Because the "A" and "T" factors are very difficult to sort out from available statistics, it is customary to substitute per-capita energy use for "A x T" in the identity.
The good news is that population growth has substantially slowed, especially in the last
decade. Growth is now estimated to be about 1.35 percent per year, having fallen from over 2
percent in the 1960s. Nevertheless, the momentum of past growth ensures further growth forseveral generations, expanding the population from 6 billion today to 8 to 10 billion before
growth can end and be reversed. Putting this in context, estimates by environmental scientistsof a human population size that can be supported in the long term, given relatively generous
assumptions about living standards, technologies and equity (A x T), are in the vicinity of 2
billion.'Although the recent slowdown in population growth is cheering, consumption in mostnations continues to grow rapidly, much of it in developed nations reasonably classed as overconsumption compared to the material goods available to the vast majority of human beings.
The most serious environmental impacts are generated in the United States, the world's third119most populous nation. The U.S. population is growing by about 1 percent per year and has anextremely high level of consumption per person: roughly ten to thirty times that of people indeveloping nations.4 Japan's per-capita consumption is about two-thirds that of the U.S. Thus,
each person added to the American or Japanese population is a far greater threat to world sustainability than a birth in Kenya or Bangladesh.
Most developing nations have recognized the problems of rapid population growth andare dealing with them. But in the rich sectors of otherwise poor economies, consumption patterns are converging on those of the developed nations.' Indeed, the pressures generated by
rapidly rising consumption levels in China alone could soon exceed those of the West andJapan. The spread of Western-style consumerism is a global threat, and the prospect of evergreater disparities in living standards between or within nations bodes ill for the environment,
which in most circumstances benefits from increased equity.'
With developing societies following the industrial world's consumptive model, humanity is using Earth's finite inventory of accessible nonrenewable resources with remarkableprofligacy.' Yet production of petroleum, on which modern industrial societies so muchdepend, is nearing its maximum and soon will begin declining. Larger reserves of coal, andless well-known but limited quantities of natural gas, may prolong fossil-fuel dependence, but
at a high cost.
Fossil-fuel use is an example of an environmentally malign technology, which is compounded by inefficient use: designing cities to be dependent on automobile transport, forinstance, rather than on walking, bicycling, or efficient, convenient mass transport. Burning
fossil fuels causes serious (and familiar) pollution problems, but even more serious is theiremissions' dominant contribution to global warming. That humanity will soon have to findmore benign substitutes for fossil fuels is clear; the transition will be forced either by the environmental consequences of their use, or by the rising costs and diminishing returns of extracting and refining them, or some combination of the two.
Another example of malign technology is the overuse or careless disposal of toxic substances, such as pesticides and countless industrial chemicals that have been released to theenvironment. Economic and institutional systems have evolved to disregard negative environmental externalities—social costs not captured in the market prices of environmentally damaging products—so precautions and prevention of damage have too seldom been undertaken.
But cleaning up afterward is not only much more costly, it sometimes is impossible.
Carrying

Capacity

The number of people Earth can support in the long term without degrading
given existing socioeconomic
is called the human carrying

systems, consumption patterns, and technological capabilities,
capacity of the planet at that time.' Carrying capacity can beexceeded without causing immediate
local or regional overshoots'

the environment,

effects that are obvious to the untutored

and subsequentcrashes of human populations

observer. Many
have occurred in

the past, but today history is being repeated on a global scale. Humanity

has already overshot

Earth's carrying capacity by a simple measure: no nation is supporting

its present population

on income: the sustainable120

flow of renewable

resources.

Instead, key renewable

resources, thenatural capital of humanity, are being used so rapidly that they have effectively become nonrenewable!' Homo sapiens collectively acts like a person who cheerfully writes ever larger
checks without considering the impact on the account's balance."
Warning signs that the human enterprise is nearing the end of rapid growth in population and consumption include declines in the amount or availability of productive land,12soil,13fresh water,' and biodiversity,15 all of which are crucial elements of natural capital essential
for sustaining civilization and especially agricultural production!'

Impacts on the Biosphere
The most critical aspect of the human predicament is the degree to which human activitiesare
modifying the biosphere and increasingly disrupting the functioning of ecosystems!' The
result is a progressive loss of crucial ecosystem services that sustain civilization. The loss of
populations and species of other organisms that are involved in supplying these services has
been accelerating as human activities alter or demolish more and more natural habitats andoverharvest living resources. Tropical forest destruction continues throughout much of thedevelopingworld!' The annihilation of oceanic fisheries has come to public attention as stock
after stock has been overfished19and much of the physical/biological infrastructure that supports the fisheries is destroyed. People are now using over half of the reasonably accessible
freshwater runoff,2°and some 43 percent of Earth's vegetated land surface has lost some portion of its capacity to supply humanity with benefits—causing overall about a 10-percent
reduction in potential productivity.21
Human activities are even interfering significantly with the global cycles of physicalelements. They have approximately doubled the natural rate by which nitrogen is added to theterrestrial nitrogen cycle, potentially impairing soil fertility,accelerating losses of biodiversity,
contributing to acid deposition, and enhancing the greenhouse effect.' A fundamental but
indirect indicator of humanity's impacts is that it is already consuming, coopting or has
destroyed more than 40 percent of terrestrial net primary production—the food supply of all
animals, not just people.' Most disturbing, ecosystem services that are essential for maintaining agricultural production, such as replenishing soil fertility, pollination and natural pest
control,' are faltering in many areas.
Lagging food production is probably the most significant symptom of ecosystem deterioration. Following a spectacular rise in production before 1980, the global grain harvest has
failed since 1984 to keep pace with population growth. The green revolution, along with opening of some new land, a dramatic expansion of irrigation and other favorable factors, boosted
grain production by more than 73 percent from 1960 to 1980, while the population expandedby 46 percent. But from 1980 to 1998, grain production increases barely equaled the population's growth of 32 percent. In 1984, grain production reached its per-capita peak, and sincethen has fluctuated below that level.
Cereal grains comprise the human feeding base and, by weight, amount to roughly halfof all foodstuffs produced by agriculture.Grain harveststhus are the best indicator of food supplies and availability,although economic factors and changes in eating habits are also significant. Since about 40 percent of the world grain harvest is used for feeding livestock, shortages

121

can be partly offset by reducing the use of cereals as feed. Similarly,reduced demand for animal products can lower pressureson grain stocks. Although such shifts have occurred in recent
years, averting serious shortages and price rises, the overall trend in food production has been
increasingly problematic.
The reasons are many and vary from area to area, but among those of rising importanceis land degradation.Rich agricultural soils, normally formed at rates of centimeters per century, are being eroded away in many areas at rates of tens of centimeters per decade.25Faulty
irrigation has often led to serious degradation as soils accumulate salts or become waterlogged.
Little suitableland remains to open for farming, while increasing amounts are taken out of production because of productivitylosses and urban sprawl.
The rising dependence on irrigation coincides with diminishing new sources of water.
Chronic or episodic shortages of water supplies exist in many areas of the world, including the
Middle East, northern China and India, and such shortages seem bound to become more acuteas populations expand. In many regions, "fossil" freshwater deposits, accumulated underground over thousands of years during glacial periods, are being "mined." Aquifers are being
drained at rates many times higher than they can be recharged, often compromising theirfreshwater holding capacity in the process. Becoming dependent on such largely irreplaceable
sources of water,especially for such nonessentialpurposes as irrigating low-value forage crops
in and regions, is both shortsightedand risky.26
Fisheries yields tell an even more dismal story. Some two-thirds of the world's major
fisheries are being maximally harvested today or are in decline.' While overall yields havecontinued to increase slightly, on a per-capita basis the fisheries harvest reached a peak in1988 and has remained belowthat level since then.The chief cause of the declines in major fishstocks is overharvesting, although more systemic environmental damage has played a role
through pollution and modification of estuaries and coral reefs as well as destruction of mangrove fringes and coastal wetlands. Anadromous fish such as salmon have suffered fromdammed rivers and oversilting from bank erosion. Aquaculture (fish farming) harvests havelargely offset declines in traditional fisheries, but at the cost of displacing natural fish populations and causing serious environmentalproblems. Fish farming also increasingly depends on
feed grains and other agricultural products to support production, thus competing, along withlivestock, with food production for human beings.
Perhaps the most serious environmental problem is depletion of biological capital.
Microorganisms, plants, and other animals are being exterminated at a rate unprecedented in
65-million years—roughly 10,000 times faster than the stock can be replaced.' Much ofEarth's natural habitat has disappeared under cities, towns, highways, railways, crop fields,
pastures and tree plantations. Habitat alteration—which, along with overexploitation of economically valuable species, is the engine driving the current surge of extinctions—can takeplace in subtle, easily overlooked ways, much less obvious than paving over or plowing undernatural ecosystems. Logging, grazing, introducing exotic species, using pesticides and exterminating particular species each can have profound effects on an ecosystem, even though it
may superficially appear unchanged.
Those vanishing organisms are working parts of our life-support systems. If we destroy

122them, the price will be a catastrophic decline in the carrying capacity of Earth for humanbeings. Natural ecosystems provide vital life-support functions of cleansing, recycling andrenewal, upon which the economy is utterly dependent. These essential ecosystem services
include amelioration of climate and weather, generation and maintenance of soil structure andfertility, recycling of nutrients, moderation of the hydrological cycle that supplies rainfall andsurface water, pollination of crops, disposal of wastes and toxins, control of more than 95 percent of potential crop pests, and maintaining a vast natural library of biodiversity. That libraryis the source of ecosystem goods' such as timber and food from the sea; the harvesting andtrading of both are familiar and important components of the human economy. It also provides
innumerable other potential and actual ecosystem goods ranging from medicines to the genetic
material essential for developing crop varieties that are resistant to pests and diseases and able
to cope with varying conditions, such as climate change and soil salinity.
In the past decade or so, perhaps the most dramatic evidence that humanity is disrupting the biosphere is anthropogenic climate change. The 1995 report of the scientific committee of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautiously stated that the warming measured over the last century "is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin... the balance ofevidence suggests that there is a discernable human influence on global climate.' Despite adetermined campaign of denial by certain elements of industry and a handful of dissident scientists,31 it has become increasingly clear that the IPCC was correct. Top atmospheric scientists wrote: "warming trends of both the surface and troposphere are now sufficiently clear thatthe issue should no longer be whether global warming is occurring, but what is the rate ofwarming."' Many suspicious signs of rapid change in the climate have emerged, from anincreased frequency of extreme weather events in North America33 and South Asia to a seeming meltdown in Alaska where glaciers are in rapid retreat. There, in addition, long-standing
permafrost is dissolving and widespread forest death is occurring, caused by interacting
stresses from permafrost soils being converted to swamps and newly abundant insect pests
attacking already weakened trees.' Parallel changes ,have been seen in other northern polar
regions and Antarctica.

Toxification of Earth
When global toxification (including releases of persistent organochlorine compounds such as
DDT and long-lived radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons tests) is considered, every
square inch of Earth's surface, land and sea, has been "significantly altered."' Toxic substances are generally viewed as threats to individuals, not to societies. They have not ordinarily been seen as posing the same sort of threat to the future as do essentially irreversible environmental impacts, such as land degradation, the loss of biodiversity and climate change.
While cancer deaths and disabilities from toxic exposures surely are tragedies for individuals
and families, collapses of agricultural and natural ecosystems could be tragic for entire societies. Nonetheless, globally distributed toxins (for instance, some chlorinated hydrocarbons
such as DDT breakdown products, endosulfan and PCBs)36unquestionably can kill or injure
many kinds of wildlife and seriously disrupt the functioning of natural ecosystems.'
Now evidence is mounting of serious effects on wildlife and human health from the123release of hormone-mimickingsyntheticorganic chemicals,although demonstratingthe causal
links is difficult.' Some synthetic chemicals have molecular structures similar to naturally
occurring hormones, and in ways both subtle and insidious, may affect normal development
in both animals and human beings.39These hormone-mimicking chemicals may pose a major
threat to humanity, both directly and indirectly.Directly, they may be causing or exacerbating
reproductivedisorders, including infertility,and triggeringbehavioral changes in some people,
potentially causing a variety of social problems. The indirect threats arise from the disruptive
effects of these chemicals on wildlife and ecosystems.
Social Vulnerability
Any and all of the foregoing negative trends can induce social disruption or be exacerbated by
it. For example, many changes associated with economic development and global change
potentially could reduce health security. The human epidemiological environment is affectedby population growth, increased mobility, settlement of new areas and nutritional status.
Modernizationand loss of indigenous medicinal knowledge, microbial evolution of antibiotic
resistance, land conversion and biodiversity loss, agricultural intensification, stratosphericozone depletion, and climate change are all trends that may enhance human vulnerability tomajor epidemics of infectious diseases. The potential for a serious pandemic to destabilize
social and political arrangements should be obvious. A case in point is AIDS. Although its
acute stages are delayed, its victims are usually people in their prime productive and reproductive years. The result can be a population dependent on aging adults struggling to support
their orphaned grandchildren.Rapidly lethal diseases such as those caused by Marburg, Ebola
or Hanta viruses could wreak havoc in vulnerable populations, especially those lacking good
medical facilities. And the resurgence of dreaded diseases, such as tuberculosis and malaria as
pathogens increasingly developresistance to chemicals deployed against them, is a real cause
for worry.
Land degradation itself, combined with poverty and inequity, can lead to social problems as large portions of rural populations are forced off the land, sometimes generating major
migrations. Hunger and extreme poverty are well-known destabilizing factors. Deforestationand desertification increase people's vulnerability to extreme weather events, as witness the
tragic consequences of hurricane Mitch. No one knows how much of Mitch's intensity can be
ascribed to global warming, although it may well have been significant. But there is no doubtthat previous deforestation and marginalizationof much of the population had left them highly
vulnerable to disaster.
Rapid population growth itself can significantlyhinder the processes of modernizationand economic development,just as poverty and illiteracy are known to hinder the adoption offamily planning practices. And gross inequities, as well as resource scarcities, surely undermine social stability within and between societies, as witness the role of freshwater scarcity ingenerating tensions in the Middle East. Water management issues also are producing problems in China, as the Three Forks Dam construction forces millions of people to be relocated.

124

Seeking Answers
Given the enormous scale and continuing expansion of the human enterprise today, all threefactors—population growth, consumption and technology (including socioeconomic andpolitical arrangements)—mustbe altered if civilization is to become sustainable. The key issue
in judging overpopulation is not how many people can fit in any given space, but whether the
population's requirements for food, water, materials, energy and ecosystem services can be
met on a sustainable basis. Most of the land perceived by urbanized individuals as "empty"
either grows the food essential to peoples' well-being, or supplies forestry products, or, lacking water, good soil, and a suitable climate, cannot directly contribute much to the support ofcivilization.Thus, the Netherlands, Singapore,Japan and England can be affluentand crowdedwith people only because the rest of the world is not. The Netherlands, for example, imports
large amounts of food" and extracts from other parts of the world much of the energy and virtually all of the materials it requires. It uses an estimated 17 times more land for food andenergy than exists within its borders.'
Throughingenuity and invention,it is possible to enlarge Earth's human carrying capacity, as indeed has happened in the past—the agricultural and industrial revolutions werechanges that led to quantum jumps in carrying capacity. Tomorrow,widespread behavioral
changes, such as shifts to more vegetable-based diets, conservation of resources and restoration of natural ecosystems,could enlarge Earth's carrying capacity for human beings in a shorttime as well. Assuming full cooperation in the needed changes, it might be possible to support
today's population of 6 billion in reasonable comfort for some time (that is, assuming no further population growth). But most people in today's rich nations are unlikely to embrace spontaneously a lifestyle of "voluntary simplicity" just to increase global carrying capacity.How
many Japanese or Americans would choose to adjust their lifestyles radically to live, say, like
today's Chinese, so that more Africans, South Asians or South Americans could be adequately
supported? How many Chinese would give up their dreams of American-style affluence forthe same reason? It certainly seems unlikely, since the current trend among those who canafford it is toward increased affluence and consumption, which tends to decrease carrying
capacity and intensify the degree of overpopulation.
Finding Answers
Thirty years ago, finding ways to slow population growth was near the top of the environmental science community's agenda. It is now realized that finding ways to curb runaway consumption may be evenmore difficult.Economic, political and institutional constraints make itvery difficult to establish desirable changes in the mix of technologies used to supply the consumption. Obviously, keeping global warming to tolerable levels, as well as reducing otherproblems arising from air pollution, will require a major shift away from dependence on fossil fuels as energy sources in modern economies.Yet this is strongly resisted by economicallypowerful corporations that supply the fuels and others whose products, such as automobiles,
are designed to use them. Similarly, chemical and plastics manufacturers and users actively
resist efforts to reduce human exposure to hormone-mimicking synthetic organic chemicals.'
Indeed, the only major global success in the technological arena in the last decade or so125

has been implementation of the 1987 Montreal Ozone Protocol to phase out chlorofluorocarbons because of depletionof the stratosphericozone shield. Achievingthat was relatively simple since a "smoking gun" appeared in the form of the Antarctic ozone hole and the relatively
few corporationsinvolved could make even bigger profits manufacturing substitutes. Limiting
the flux of greenhouse gases from energy consumption, deforestation and agriculture will be
more difficult by orders of magnitude.
Still, one heartening change has been the rapidly growing cooperation of economists
and ecologists in efforts to find policy instruments to help preserve humanity's natural capital.' While the trend can be traced back to early efforts by economist Herman Daly, the last
decade has seen an explosion of activity. At Stanford University,regular seminars now bring
together economists, ecologists, engineers, professors of law and business, and others to discuss the environmental dimensions of the human predicament. The Beijer Institute of
Ecological Economics has conducted an active program of discussion and research in this areaand produced a series of important publications bringing the two disciplines together.44
A result has been a growing realization among natural and social scientists that we cannot depend on working with governments alone to solve the growing environmental crisis.
Instead, the emphasis is shifting to recruiting the business community into the struggle toachieve a sustainable society. Although the process has just begun, encouraging signs haveappeared, such as the Natural Step program, begun by Dr. Karl-Henrick Robert in Sweden, andthe writings of businessmen Paul Hawken and Stephan Schmidheiny.45Some businesses havealready demonstrated that it is possible to make more money operating in a manner that is ecologically sound than by ignoring environmental impacts. One outstanding example isInterface, a company that (under the leadership of CEO Ray Anderson) supplies commercial
carpeting on a rental basis. When the carpet is worn, Interface replaces it and completely recycles the old material rather than stuffing it into a landfill. The company is enormously successful, grossing more than $1 billion annually. Through such examples, other corporations
may learn that they can do well while doing good.
Converting business to a powerful force for environmental quality is a huge task, buteven that cannot solve our predicament as long as the scale of the human enterprise continues
to grow. People must become involved in solving local and regional environmental problems
and in encouraging their governments to cooperatemore in seeking ways to reduce the size ofthe enterprise. Business leaders have both heavy responsibilities and great opportunities inthese areas—and they have a great deal of expertise in putting theory into practice. They andtheir children and grandchildren are fully as dependent for their lives on the services provided
by natural ecosystems as everyone else. And perhaps more than anyone else, they are experts
in the critical area of consumptionand able to find ways to curb the growth of society's energy
use and material throughput.
Technological change, such as substituting electronic communication for travel andenvironmentally more benign energy sources for the dominant fossil-fuel technologies oftoday, can help. But changes in family sizes, infrastructuralarrangements, lifestyle, and humanaspirations and attitudes are also needed. The human predicament cannot be solved without thecooperation of a substantial portion of the human population. To gain that cooperation, more126

equity is desperately needed; solving the problems of racism, sexism, religious prejudice andgross economic inequity are part and parcel of solving the predicament. The business community has the political power to lead the transition to a sustainable global society; one with asmaller population supplied with both necessities and some luxuries. I urge businessmen
everywhere to learn about the current environmental situation and then accept the challenge.
And scientists, politicians and ordinary citizens should do the same. Nothing less is at stake
than the fate of human civilization.
The most important
take-homemessages• The environmental
crisis is increasingly•of this talk are:severe , and there may not be muchvent a disastrous
end to it.
Population
growth must be reversed•, overconsumption
must be constrained,ronmentallybenign technologies
must be deployed.
Greater efforts must be made to improve the epidemiologicalenvironment

•

Much

•

restoring
oceanic fisheries.
To accomplish
the needed tasks , more

more attention

must be paid to developing

attentionand deploying

shouldand more envi.
agriculture

andthat lie withinthesustainablebe paid to issues

time left to pre-purview of the social sciences. Naturalscientists
already know in what directions
societymust go. But developing
the critical social, political and institutional
reforms to movesociety•

to sustainability

will requireinnovation

tists, legal scholars and others.
People must not only change their behaviour
human

predicament,

they must changeon the part of economists,
towardtheir behaviour

the environment
towardpolitical

in orderscien-

to solvethe

one another.

References
1 J.P. Holdren, 1991, Population and the Energy Problem. Population and Environment 12:231-235, and personal communication (1998).
2 J. Holdren and P. Ehrlich, 1974, Human Population and the Global Environment, American Scientist 62:282292; P. Ehrlich and A. Ehrlich, 1990, The Population Explosion, Simon and Schuster, New York.
3 G.C. Daily, A.H. Ehrlich, and P.R. Ehrlich, 1994, Optimum Human Population Size. Population andEnvironment 15: 469-475.
4 P.R. Ehrlich, et al., 1997, No Middle Way on the Environment. TheAtlantic Monthly 280 (6): 98-104.
5 World Resources Institute, 1998, WorldResources 1998-99, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
6 G. Daily and P. Ehrlich, 1996. Socioeconomic Equity, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity.
Ecological Applications 6(4): 991-1001.
7 Holdren, 1991.
8 G. Daily and P. Ehrlich, 1992. Population, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity. BioScience42: 761771.
9 W. Catton, 1980, Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, University of Illinois Press,
Urbana IL.
10 Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1990. See Chapter 2 and the references in it.
11 For a fine overview of some of the critical trends, see R. Naylor, 1996. Energy and Resource Constraints on
Intensive Agricultural Production, Annual Review of Energy; and N. Myers, 1995, Ultimate Security: The
Environmental Basis of Political Stability,W.W. Norton, New York.
12 See, e.g., H. Colby, F. Crook, and S.-E. Webb, 1992, Agricultural Statistics of the People's Republic of China,
1949-1990, Statistical Bulletin no. 844, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C.; M. Imhoff et al.,1986. Monsoon Flood Boundary Delineation and Damage Assessment Using Space-Borne Imaging Radarand Landsat Data, Photogrammatic Engineering and Remote Sensing 53:405-413. See also pp. 171-180 of
Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Daily, 1995.

127

13 For an overview, see chapter 6 of P. Ehrlich, A. Ehrlich, and G. Daily, 1995, The Stork and the Plow, Putnam,
New York.
14 E.g., P. Gleick (ed.), 1993. Water in Crisis, Oxford University Press, New York, and 1998. The World's Water,
Island Press, Washington DC; M. Reisner, 1986. Cadillac Desert, Viking, New York; S. Postel, 1990. Water
for Agriculture: Facing the Limits, Worldwatch Paper 93, Worldwatch Institute, Washington D.C.; S. Postel,
G. Daily, and P. Ehrlich, 1996, Human Appropriation of Renewable Fresh Water, Science 271:785-788.
15 Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Holdren, 1977, chapters 3, 4, 6, and 11; N. Myers, 1979, The Sinking Ark, Pergamon
Press, New York; P. Ehrlich and A. Ehrlich, 1981, Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of theDisappearance of Species, Random House, New York; E. Wilson (ed.), 1988,Biodiversity,National Academy
Press, Washington, D.C.; P. Ehrlich and E. Wilson, 1991, Biodiversity Studies: Science and Policy, Science
253:758-762;E. Wilson, 1992, TheDiversity of Life,Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA; J. Lawton and
R. May (eds.), 1995, Extinction Rates, Oxford University Press, Oxford; S. Pimm, G. Russell, J. Gittleman, T.
Brooks, 1995, The future of Biodiversity, Science 269:347-350; E. Hoyt, 1988, Conserving the WildRelativesof Crops, IUCN, Gland and Rome; C. Fowler and P. Mooney, 1990, Shattering: Food, Politics, and the Lossof Genetic Diversity,University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
16 E.g., L. Oldeman, V. Van Engelen, and J. Pulles, 1990.The Extent of Human-Induced Soil Degradation,Annex
5 of Oldeman et al., World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation An Explanatory Note (rev.
2nd. ed.), International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC),Waginengen, Netherlands; R. Repetto,
1994, The "Second India" Revisited: Population, Poverty, and Environmental Stress over Two Decades,
World Resources Institute, Washington DC; G. Daily, 1995, Restoring Value to the World's Degraded Land,
Science 269:350-354; National Research Council, Committee on the Role of Alternative Farming Methods inModern Production Agriculture, Board on Agriculture, 1989. Alternative Agriculture. National Academy
Press, Washington D.C.
17 P. Vitousek,et al., 1997. Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems. Science 277:494-499.
18 N. Myers, 1996, The World's Forests: Problems and Potentials. Environmental Conservation 23:156-168.
19 D. Pauly, 1998. Fishing Down Marine Food Webs. Science 279:860-863.
20 S. Postel, G. Daily, and P. Ehrlich, 1996. Human Appropriationof Renewable Freshwater. Science 271:785788.
21 Daily, 1995.
22 P. Vitousek,H. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J. Melillo, 1997.Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle:
Sources and Consequences.Ecological Applications 7:737-750.
23 P. Vitousek, P. Ehrlich, A. Ehrlich, and P. Matson, 1986, Human Appropriation of the Products of
Photosynthesis.BioScience 36:368-373.
24 E.g., S. Buchmann and G. Nabhan, 1996, The Forgotten Pollinators, Island Press, Washington, DC; G. Nabhan
and S. Buchmann, 1997, Services Provided by Pollinators. In G. Daily (ed.), Nature's Services,Island Press,
Washington,DC, pp. 133-150.
25 Oldeman, et al., 1990; P. Ehrlich, A. Ehrlich, and G. Daily, 1993. Food Security, Population, andEnvironment.
Population and DevelopmentReview 19:1, pp. 1-32;Daily, 1995.
26 Postel, Daily, and Ehrlich, 1996.
27 Vitousek et al., 1997.
28 Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Holden, 1977, Ecoscience; Population, Resources, Environment, W.H. Freeman & Co.,San Francisco; Myers, 1979; Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1981; Wilson, 1988; Ehrlich and Wilson, 1991; Wilson,
1992; Lawton and May, 1995; Pimm et al., 1995; P. Raven and J. McNeely, 1996, Biological Extinction: Its
Scope and Meaning for Life, in L. Guruswamy and J. McNeely (eds.), Their Seed Preserves: Strategies for
Preserving Global Biodiversity,Duke University Press, Durham, NC, This is a conservative estimate; see, forexample, R. May, 1988, How Many Species Are There on Earth? Science 241:1448, 16 September.
29 G. Daily, ed., 1997,Nature's Services: Their Nature and Value,Island Press, Washington, DC, in press.
30 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1996. Climate Change 1995, Summary for
Policymakers, Working Group I, pp. 10-11.
31 Although there has been some genuine scientific debate, much of this campaign has been outright disinformation (see P. Ehrlich and A. Ehrlich, 1996, Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-environmentalRhetoricThreatens Our Future, Island Press, Washington, D.C.; R. Gelbspan, 1998. The Heat is On, Perseus Books,
Reading, MA. The most recent incident involved the circulation of a fake reprint designed to look like an article that had been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.
32 J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998, Global Climate Data and Models: A
Reconciliation.Science 281:930-932.
33 T.R. Karl and R.W. Knight, 1998, Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the
U.S.A.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society79:231-242.
34 W. Stevens, 1998, As Alaska Melts, Scientists Consider the Reasons Why. New York Times, 18August.

128

35 E.g., S. Simonich and R. Hites, 1995. Global Distribution of Persistent Organochlorine Compounds. Science
269:1851-1854.
36 Simonich and Hites, 1995.
37 C. Edwards, 1993. The Impact of Pesticides on the Environment, in D. Pimentel and H. Lehman (eds), The
Pesticide Question: Environment, Ecnomics,and Ethics, Chapman & Hall, New York, pp. 13-46; T. Colborn
and C. Clement (eds.), 1992, Chemically-InducedAlterations in Sexual and Functional Development: The
Wildlife/HumanConnection,Princeton Scientific Publishing,Princeton,N.J., chapters 6-9; for more details andreferences, see Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Holdren, 1977, chapters 10 and 11; and Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1981.
38 E.g., J. Toppari, et al., Male Reproductive Health and Environmental Xenoestrogens. Environmental Health
Perspectives 104 (suppl. 4):741-803.
39 T. Colborn, J. Myers, and D. Dumanoski, 1996. Our Stolen Future, Dutton, New York; see also Colborn andClements, 1992, especially chapters 14-21.
40 In 1989-91, the Netherlands had average net imports of more than 3-million metric tons of cereals and 800,000
metric tons of pulses (peas and beans, including soybeans);World Resources Institute, 1994. WorldResources
1994-95, Oxford University Press, New York.
41 M. Wackernagel, 1993, How Big is our Ecological Footprint? A Handbook for Estimating a Community's
Carrying Capacity, Discussion draft, Task Force on Planning Healthy and Sustainable Communities,
University of British Columbia, Department of Family Practice, Mather Building, 5804 Fairview Avenue,
Vancouver B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z3, 15 July. The Netherlands' "ecological footprint" or "appropriated carrying capacity" is defined as "the aggregate land (and water) area in various categories required by the people ina region a) to provide continuously all the resources they presently consume, and b) to absorb continuously all
the waste they presently discharge, using current technology" (p. 10).
42 A steady flow of recent information has made ever more pertinent the 1996 warning of Colborn, Dumanoski,
and Myers in Our Stolen Future.
43 P. Ehrlich, 1997, World of Wounds: Ecologists and the Human Dilemma, Ecology Institute, Oldendorf/Luhe,
Germany, Chapter 5.
44 E.g., K. Arrow, et al., 1995,Economic Growth,Carrying Capacity, and the Environment. Science 268:520-521.
45 P. Hawken, 1993, TheEcology of Commerce:A Declaration of Sustainability, Harper Collins, New York; S.
Schmidheiny, 1992, Changing Course: A Global Business Perspective on Development and the Environment,
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

129

Major Publications
Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich
Books
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. How to Know the Butterflies. Dubuque, Iowa: Wm. C. Brown, 1961.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.W. Holm. The Process of Evolution. N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1963. Second Edition,
1974.
Ehrlich, P.R. The Population Bomb. N.Y.: A Sierra Club-Ballantine Book, 1968. Revised Edition,
1978.
Ehrlich,P.R., R.W. Holm and K.B. Armitage. Principles of Modern Biology (nine volumes).Palo Alto:
BehavioralResearch Laboratories, 1968.
Ehrlich, P.R., R.W. Holm and P.H. Raven, ed. Papers on Evolution. Boston: Little, Brown, 1969.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology. San
Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1970. Revised edition, 1972.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.L. Harriman. How to Be a Survivor: A Plan to Save Spaceship Earth. N.Y.:
Ballantine Books, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren, ed. Global Ecology: Readings Toward a Rational Strategy for Man.
N.Y.: Harcourt, Brace and Jovanovitch, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R., J.P. Holdren and R.W. Holm. Man and the Ecosphere. (Readings from Scientific
American). San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.H. Ehrlich and J.P. Holdren. Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions. San Francisco:
W.H. Freeman, 1973
Ehrlich, P.R., R.W. Holm and M. Soule. Introductory Biology.N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1973.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.C. Pirages. Ark II: Social Response to Environmental Imperatives. N.Y.: Viking
Press, 1974.
Ehrlich, P.R., R.W. Holm and P.C. Hanawalt, ed. Biocore. N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1974.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. The End of Affluence:A Blueprint for Your Future. N.Y.: Ballantine
Books, 1974.
Ehrlich, P.R., R.H. Holm and I.L. Brown. Biology and Society. McGraw-Hill, 1976.
Ehrlich, P.R. and S. Feldman. The Race Bomb.N.Y.: Quadrangle Books, 1977.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.H. Ehrlich and J.P. Holdren. Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment. San
Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1977.
Ehrlich, P.R., H. Daly and J. Doyen. Introduction to Insect Biology and Diversity. N.Y.: McGraw-Hill,
1978.
Ehrlich, P.R. and S. Feldman. The Race Bomb. N.Y.: Ballantine Books, Paperback edition, 1978.
Ehrlich, P.R.,L. Bilderbackand A.H. Ehrlich. The Golden Door: International Migration, Mexico,and
the United States. N.Y.: Ballantine Books, 1979.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance ofSpecies. N.Y.: Random House, 1981.
Ehrlich, P.R., C. Sagan, D. Kennedy and W.O. Roberts. The Cold and the Dark: The World after
Nuclear War. N.Y.: W.W. Norton, 1984.
Ehrlich, P.R. The Machinery of Nature. N.Y.: Simon and Schuster, 1986.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. Earth. Methuen, London and N.Y.:Franklin Watts, 1987.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J. Roughgarden. The Science of Ecology. N.Y.: MacMillan, 1987.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Robert Ornstein. New World/NewMind: Moving toward Conscious Evolution.N.Y.:
Doubleday, 1989.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. The Population Explosion. N.Y.: Simon and Schuster, 1990.
—. Healing the Planet. N.Y.: Addison-Wesley, 1991.

130

Ehrlich, P.R., Denis A. Saunders, and Richard J. Hobbs. Repairing a Damaged World: An Outlinefor
Ecological Restoration. Australia: Surrey Beatty & Sons, 1993.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. Extinction. (Japanese edition with new introduction). 1993. Translationrights arranged through Japan UNI Agency Inc.
Ehrlich, P.R., Denis A. Saunders and Richard J. Hobbs. Nature Conservation 3: Reconstruction of
Fragmented Ecosystems.Australia: Surrey Beatty & Sons, 1993.
Ehrlich, P.R., David S. Dobkin, Darryl Wheye, et al.A Guide to the Natural History of the Birds of St.
Lawrence Island, Alaska. Center for Conservation Biology, 1993.
Ehrlich, P.R., David S. Dobkin, Darryl Wheye, and Stuart L. Pimm. The Birdwatcher's Handbook: A
Guide to the Natural History of the Birds of Britain and Europe. Oxford Univ. Press, 1994.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.H. Ehrlich and Gretchen C. Daily. The Stork & the Plow. N.Y.: Putnam Publishing,
1995.
Ehrlich, P.R., Donald Kennedy, David Holloway, et al. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict:
A Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1998. N.Y.:
Carnegie Corporation, 1998.
Chapters in Books
Ehrlich, P.R. "Butterflies." Collier's Encyclopedia, Vol. 4,274, et seq. 1958.
—. "Lepidoptera." In McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology,459-473.1960.
—. "Integumental Anatomy." (reprint) In The Monarch Butterfly, by F.A. Urquhart, 215-242.Univ. of
Toronto Press. 1960.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.W. Holm. "A Biological View of Race." In The Concept of Race. Ed. Ashley
Montague. Free Press of Glencoe, 1964.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Population and Environment." In Toward Century 21, Technology,Society and Human
Values.Ed. C.S.Wallia, 53-63. N.Y.: Basic Books, 1970.
—. "Population Control or Hobson's Choice." In Optimum Population for Britain. Ed. L.R. Taylor,151-174.Inst. of Biology Symposium No. 19.London & N.Y.: Academic Press, 1970.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.L. Harriman. "Primer on Population Growth and Ecology." Part I of Population
Monograph. Oct. Medcom, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Population Growth and the Future of Man." The 1971 Compton
Yearbook.Encyclopaedia Brittanica, 1971.
—. "Population Crisis and Plans to Limit Population Growth." 1971 Brittanica Book of the Year.
Chicago: EncyclopaediaBrittanica, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren "An Inventory of Disaster." In Ecocide...and Thoughts Survival. Ed.
Clifton Fadiman and Jean White. Center for Study of Democratic Institutions, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Population Crisis: Where We Stand." In Population, Environment and People. Ed.
Noel Hinriche. The Council on Population and Environment.N.Y.: McGraw-Hill Paperbacks, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren "Population and Environment." In The American Population Debate. Ed.
Daniel Callahan. Doubleday, Garden City: Anchor Books, 1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Warnings." In Environmental Solutions. Ed. Nicholas Pole. Cambridge, England:
Cambridge Univ. Conservation Society, EcoPublications, 1972.
—. "Impact of Population Growth." In Population, Resources, and the Environment. Ed. Ronald G.
Ridker. Vol. III of Commission Research Reports (U.S. Commission on Population Growth and theAmerican Future), Washington, D.C., 1972.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.W. Holm. "Evolution." Biocore, Unit 23 (1974), 1-32.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Between Man and Environment: The Delicate Balance." In Health ina Changing World.Ed. P.M. Insel and W.T. Roth. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1974.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Strategy of Conservation, 1980-2000." Chap. 19, In Conservation Biology: An
Evolutionary-EcologicalPerspective. Ed. Michael Soule and Bruce Wilcox. 329-344. Sunderland,131

Mass: Sinauer Associates, 1980.
- . "Diversity and the Steady State." In Quest for a Sustainable Society. Ed. James C. Coomer. N.Y.:
Pergamon Press, 1981.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "What Happened to the Population Bomb?" In The Social World. Ed.
Ian Robertson. N.Y.: Worth Publishers, 1981.
Ehrlich, P.R. "When the Light is Put Away: Ecological Effects of Nuclear War." In The Counterfeit
Ark: Crisis Relocation for Nuclear War. Ed. J. Leaning and L. Keyes. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger,
1983.
- . "Genetics and the Extinction of Butterfly Populations." In Genetics and Conservation: A Reference
for Managing WildAnimal and Plant Populations. Ed. C. M. Schonewald Cox, S. M. Chambers,B.
MacBryde,and L. Thomas. 152-163. Benjamin/Cummings, 1983.
- . "The Structure and Dynamics of Butterfly Populations." In The Biology of Butterflies. Ed. R.I.
Vane-Wrightand P.R. Ackery. 11:25-40. Symposium of the British Ent. Soc., 1984.
- . "The Ecology of Nuclear War: Population, Resources, and Environment." In Nuclear Weaponsand
the Future of Humanity. Ed. A. Cohen and S. Lee. Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Allanheld, 1986.
- . Extinctions and Ecosystem Functions: Implications for Humankind." In Animal Extinctions: What
Everyone Should Know. Ed. R.J. Hoage. 159-173. Washington: Smithsonian Institution Press,
1986.
- . "Why We Should Worry about the Extinction of Other Species." In Environmental Challenges:
Learningfor Tomorrow's World. Ed. P.F. Wilkinson and M. Wyman. London, Ontario: Althouse
Press, 1986.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Monitoring Populations on Remnants of Native Vegetation." InNature Conservation: The Role of Remnantsof Native Vegetation.Ed. D.A. Saunders, G.W. Arnold,
A.A. Burbidge and A.J.M. Hopkins. 201-10. Australia: Surrey Beatty & Sons, 1987.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Ecology of Nuclear War, Chapter 10." In The Cassandra Conference. Ed. P.R.
Ehrlich and J.P. Holdren. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station, 1988.
- . "Populations of People and Other Living Things." In Earth '88,. Changing Geographic
Perspectives, 302-315.1988 National Geographic Society, 1989.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "The Conservation Biology of California's Remnant Native
Grasslands." In Grassland Structure and Function: California Annual Grassland. Ed. L.F.
Huenneke and H.A. Mooney. 201-211. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers,
1989.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Discussion: Ecology and Resource Management-Is Ecological Theory Any Good in
Practice?" In Perspectives in Ecological Theory. Ed. J.Roughgarden, R.M. May, and S.A. Levin.
306-318. Princeton Univ. Press, 1989.
- . "The Attributes of Invaders and Invasion Processes: Vertebrates." In Biological Invasions,A Global
Perspective, SCOPE 37. Ed. H.A. Mooney and J.A. Drake. 315-328.1989.
- . "The Global Commons and National Security." In Climate and Geo-Sciences: A Challenge for
Science and Society in the 21st Century. Ed. A. Berger, et al. 553-562. Kluwer Academic
Publishers, 1989.
Ehrlich, P.R. and G. Daily, A. H. Ehrlich, P. Matson, P. Vitousek. "Global Change and Carrying
Capacity: Implicationsfor Life on Earth." In Global Change and Our CommonFuture; Papers froma Forum. Ed. R. Deifies and T. Malone. 19-27. National Research Council, 1989.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Population and the GreenhouseWarming." In Greenhouse Glasnost:
The Crisis of Global Warming.Ed. Terrell J. Minger. 167-180. The Ecco Press, 1990.
Ehrlich, P.R., Barbara Bocek, Nona Chiariello, et al. "Jasper Ridge, A Stanford Sanctuary," Ed. Susan
Wels. Stanford, California: Stanford Alumni Association, 1990.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Erhlich. "Population Control: Necessary but Insufficient." In TheMother Earth
Handbook. Ed. Judith S. Scherff. 17-31. N.Y.: Continuum Publishing, 1991.

132

Ehrlich, P.R. "Can We Respond to the Growing Environmental Threat to Civilization?"In Environment
in Peril. Ed. Anthony B. Wolbarst. 110-139. Washington: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1992.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "The Most Overpopulated Nation." In Elephants in the Volkswagen:Facing the Tough Questions about Our Overcrowded Country. Ed. Lindsay Grant. 125-33. N.Y.:
W. H. Freeman, 1992.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.H. Ehrlich and G.C. Daily. "Population, Ecosystem Services, and the Human Food
Supply." Morrison Institutefor Population and Resource Studies. Paper No. 0044. Stanford Univ.,
1992.
Ehrlich, P.R. and G.C. Daily. "Population, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity." Morrison
Institutefor Population and Resource Studies. Paper No. 0046. Stanford Univ., 1992.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Biodiversity." In
Mexico Confrontsthe Challenges of Biodiversity,Comision Nacional para El Conocimiento y Usode La Biodiversidad, Mexico, 1992. Ed. Jose Sarukhan and Rodolfo Dirzo. 43-55.1992.
-. "Ecosystem Risks Associated with the Population Explosion ." In Predicting Ecosystem Risk. Ed.
John Cairns, Jr., B.R. Niederlehner, and David R. Orvos. 9-21. Princeton Scientific Publishing,
1992.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.A. Saunders and R.J. Hobbs. "Reconstruction of Fragmented Ecosystems: Problems
and Possibilities."In Nature Conservation 3: Reconstruction of Fragmented Ecosystems.Ed. D.A.
Saunders, R.J. Hobbs, and P.R. Ehrlich. 305-313. Australia: Surrey Beatty & Sons, 1993.
Ehrlich, P.R., N. Myers and A.H. Ehrlich. "The Human Population Problem: As Explosive as Ever?"In Surviving with the Biosphere. Ed. N. Polunin and J. Burnett, 1993.270-281. Edinburgh, UK:
Edinburgh Univ. Press, 1994.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Ecological Economics." In WorldAffairs Journal: A Compendium, 1993.108-116. Los
Angeles World Affairs Council, 1994.
- . "Ecological Economics and the Carrying Capacity of Earth." In Investing in Natural Capital. Ed.
AnnMari Jansson, Monica Hammer, Carl Folke and Robert Costanza. 38-56. Washington, D.C.:
Island Press, 1994.
- . "Human Population Growth and Global Change." In Ecological and Social Dimensionsof Global
Change. Ed. D.D. Caron, F.S. Chapin III, J. Donoghue, M. Firestone, J. Harte, L.E. Wells and R.
Stewardson. 119-146. Berkeley: Inst. of Itnl. Studies, 1994.
- . "The Scale of the Human Enterprise and Biodiversity Loss." In Extinction Rates. Ed. John H.
Lawton and Robert M. May. 214-226. Oxford Univ. Press, 1995.
Ehrlich, P.R.and Gretchen C. Daily. "It is Imperative to Estimate the Earth's 'Carrying Capacity.'" In
Population: Opposing Viewpoints.Ed. Charles F. Hohm. 82-89. Greenhaven Press, 1995.
Ehrlich, P.R., John P. Holdren and Gretchen C. Daily. "The Meaning of Sustainability: Biogeophysical
Aspects." In Defining and Measuring Sustainability. Ed. M. Munasinghe and W. Shearer. 3-17.
N.Y.: United Nations Univ., 1995.
Ehrlich, P.R., A. H. Ehrlich. "Growing beyond Our Limits." In Scientific American: Triumph ofDiscovery, 181-183. N.Y.: Henry Holt, 1995.
Ehrlich, P.R., Fraser D.M. Smith and Gretchen C. Daily. "Human Population Dynamics andBiodiversity Loss." In The Economics and Ecology of Biodiversity Decline: The Forces Driving
Global Change. Ed. Timothy M. Swanson. 125-141.1995 Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Harold A. Mooney. "Ecosystem Services: A Fragmentary History." In Nature'sServices: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems.Ed. Gretchen C. Daily. 11-19. Washington,
D.C.: Island Press, 1997.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Rosamond L. Naylor. "Natural Pest Control Services and Agriculture." In Nature'sServices: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Ed. Gretchen C. Daily. 151-174.
Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997.
Ehrlich, P.R. "A World of Wounds: Ecologists and the Human Dilemma." In Excellencein Ecology.Ed.

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0. Kinne. Germany: Ecology Institute, 1997.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "The Value of Biodiversity." In The Economics of Transnational
Commons. Ed. Partha Dasgupta, Karl-Goran Maler and Alessandro Vercelli. 97-117. N.Y.:
Clarendon Press Oxford, 1997.
Ehrlich, P.R. "A Prime Canadian Natural Resource Lost at Sea." Rev. of "Lament for an Ocean: The
Collapse of the Atlantic Cod Fishery," by Michael Harris. Ontario, Canada: McClelland & Stewart,
1998. In The San Francisco Chronicle, Jan. 3,1999, Book Review, 1999,7.
Ehrlich, P.R., G. Daily, P. Dasgupta, et al. "Food Production, Population Growth, and theEnvironment." Beijer Reprint Series, No. 103. Beijer Intl. Institute of Ecological Economics, The
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 1999.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Susan E. Alexander. "Population and the Environment." In Earth Systems:Processes
and Issues. Ed. W.G. Ernst. 329-345. Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000.
Ehrlich, P.R., Jennifer B. Hughes and Gietchen C. Daily. "The Loss of Population Diversity and Why
It Matters." In Nature and Human Society: The Questfor a Sustainable World. Ed. Peter H. Ravenand Tania Williams. 71-83. National Academy Press, 2000.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Claire Kremen. "Human Effects on Ecosystems, Overview." In Encyclopedia of
Biodiversity,Volume 3. Ed. Simon Asher Levin. 383-393. Academic Press, 2000.
Ehrlich, P.R. "La sistematica y la conservacifin de la biodiversidad." In Enfoques Contempordneos
para el Estudio de la Biodiversidad. Ed. Hector M. Hernandez, Algonso N. Garcia Aldrete,
Fernanco Alvarez, Miguel Ulloa. 381-400. Instituto de Biologia, Universidad Nacional AutOnamade Mexico, 2001.

ArticlesEhrlich, P.R. "Field Notes on the Eye Colors of the Colias Eurythem-Philodice Complex; The
Parasitization of Danaus Plexippus and the Use of "Flyways" by Papilio Glaucus." Lepidopterists'
News, 2 (1948), 92.
Ehrlich, P.R. and N.W. Gillham. "A New Atrytone from Nebraska (Lepidoptera: Hesperio-idea)."
EntomologicalNews, 62 (1951), 188-189.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "A Field Guide to the Butterflies of North America, East of the Great Plains," byAlexander B. Klots. EntomologicalNews, 63 (1952), 26-27.
— . "The Distribution and Subspeciation of Erebia Rossii Curtis (Lepidoptera: Satyridae)."Transactions of the American Entomological Society, 78 (1952), 75-88.
— . "A New Subspecies of Erebia Epipsodea Butler (Lepidoptera: Satyridae)." Entomological News, 63(1952), 225-231.
Ehrlich, P.R. and N.W. Gillham. "The Butterfly Types of Henry Skinner and Co-Authors in the
Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea)."Transactions of the American Entomological Society, 80 (1954), 91-117.
— . "The Naming of Subspecies in Lepidoptera." Lepidopterists' News, 8 (1954), 100.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Notes on Erebia Rossii Curtis (Lepidoptera:Satyridae)." EntomologicalNews, 65 (1954),
225-227.
— . "Ecological Observations on Erebia (Lepidoptera: Satyridae) in Northwestern America."
EntomologicalNews, 67 (1956), 29-35.
— . "The Use of the Leitz `Ultropak' Microscope for Studying the Scales of Lepidoptera In Situ."
Lepidopterists' News, 10 (1956), 160.
— . "Systematists and Subspecies."Lepidopterists' News, 11 (1957), 4-5,155-157.
—. "Lepidoptera Collected in the Tundra-Taiga Ecotone at Kotzebue, Alaska." Entomological News,69 (1958), 17-20.
—. "The Higher Systematics of the Butterflies." Lepidopterists' News, 11 (1958),103-106.

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Ehrlich, P.R. and J.H. Camin. "Natural Selection in Water Snakes (Natrix Sipedon L.) on Islands in
Lake Erie." Evolution, 12 (1958), 504-511.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "Insect Migration," by C.B. Williams. Science, 129 (1959), 205-206.
—. "A Note on the Systematic Position of the Butterfly Genus Calinaga (Nymphalidae)."
Lepidopterists' News, 12 (1959), 5-6,173.
—. Rev. of "The World of Insects," by Paul Pesson; "Grassblade Jungle," by Nesta Pain; "Collecting,Preserving and Studying Insects," by Harold Oldroyd. Science,130 (1959), 261.
—. "Problems of Higher Classification." SystematicZoology, 7 (1959), 180-184.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.H. Camin. "A Cage for Maintaining Stock Colonies of Parasitic Mites and Their
Hosts." Journal of Parasitology, 46 (1960), 109-111.
—. "Natural Selection in Middle Island Water Snakes (Natrix Sipedon L.)." Evolution, 14(1960), 136.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Integumental Anatomy of the Silver-Spotted Skipper, Epargyreus Clarus Cramer(Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae)." Microentomology,24 (1960), 1-23.
— . "A New Subgenus and Species of Callophrys (s.1.) from the Southwestern United States(Lepidoptera: Lycaeni dae)." EntomologicalNews, 71 (1960), 137-141.
Ehrlich, P.R. and E. Munroe. "Harmonization of Concepts of Higher Classification of the Papilionidae."
Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society, 14 (1960), 169-175.
Ehrlich, P.R. and S.E. Davidson. "The Internal Anatomy of the Monarch Butterfly, Danaus Plexippus
L." (Lepidoptera:Nymphalidae). Microentomology,24 (1961), 85-133.
— . "Techniques for Capture-Recapture Studies of Lepidoptera Populations." Journal of the
Lepidopterists' Society,14 (1961), 227-229.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Intrinsic Barriers to Dispersalin the CheckerspotButterfly Euphydryas Editha." Science,
134 (1961), 108-109.
— . "The Comparative Morphology of the Male Reproductive System of the Butterflies (Lepidoptera:
Papilionoidea). I. Some Nearctic Species." Microentomology,24 (1961), 135-166.
— . "Systematics in 1970: Some Unpopular Predictions." Systematic Zoology, 10 (1961 ), 157-158.
— . "Has the Biological Species Concept Outlived its Usefulness?" Systematic Zoology, 10 (1961),
167-176.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "The Head Musculature of the Butterflies (Lepidoptera:
Papilionoidea)."Microentomology,25 (1962), 1-89.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.W. Holm. "Patterns and Populations." Science, 137 (1962), 652-657.
Ehrlich, P.R. "A Biting Midge Ectoparasitic on Arizonal Lycaenids." Journal of the Lepidopterists'
Society,16(1962), 20-22.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.W. Holm. "Reply to Amadon." Science, 138 (1962), 734.
— . "Reply to Webster." Science, 139 (1962), 238-242.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "The Thoracic and Basal Abdominal Musculature of the Butterflies(Lepidoptera:Papilionoidea)."Microentomology,25 (1963), 91-126.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Some Axioms of Taxonomy." SystematicZoology, 13(1964), 109-123.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P.H. Raven. "Butterflies and Plants: A Study in Coevolution." Evolution, 18 (1965),
586-608.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "Phenetic and Phylogenetic Classification, A Symposium." Ed. V.H. Heywood.
London: The Systematic Association.In Evolution, 19 (1965), 363-364.
— . "1984." Chemistry,38 (1965), 12-17.
— . "The Population Biology of the Butterfly, Euphydryas Editha. II. The Structure of the Jasper Ridge
Colony." Evolution, 19 (1965), 327-336.
Ehrlich, P.R. and L.G. Mason. "The Population Biology of the Butterfly, Euphydryas Editha. III.
Selection and the Phenetics of the Jasper Ridge Colony." Evolution, 20 (1966), 165-173.
Ehrlich, P.R. and L.C. Birch. "The Balance of Nature" and "Population Control." The American
Naturalist, 101 (1967), 97-107.

135

Ehrlich, P.R. and L.C. Birch. "Evolutionary History and Population Biology." Nature, 214 (1967),
349-352.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P.H. Raven. "Butterflies and Plants." ScientificAmerican, 216 (1967), 104-113.
Ehrlich, P.R and L.C. Birch. "Evolutionary History and Taxonomy." Systematic Zoology, 1 (1967),
282-285.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Paying the Piper." New Scientist, 36 (575) (1967), 652-655.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "The Phenetic Relationships of the Butterflies. I. Adult Taxonomy and
the Nonspecificity Hypothesis." SystematicZoology, 16 (1967), 301-317.
Ehrlich, P.R. "World Population: How Many People and What Kind of Life?" Stanford Today, Series
1, No. 22 (1968), 2-7, Winter.
—. "The Coming Famine." Natural History, 77 (5) (1968), 6-15.
Ehrlich, P.R. and H.R. Hulett. Rev. of "The Limits of Man," by Hugh Nicol. Constable. New Scientist,
38 (1968), 426-427.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Population Explosion: Fact or Fiction?" Sierra Club Bulletin, October 1968.
Ehrlich,P.R. and D.E. Breedlove. "Plant-Herbivore Coevolution:Lycaenids and Lupines." Science, 162(1968), 671-672.
Ehrlich, P.R., L.E. Gilbert and P.H. Raven. (Letter) "More on Forest Defoliation." Science, 161 (1968),
964-965.
Ehrlich, P.R. (Letter) "Encyclical Protest." Signedby Paul Ehrlich, Ernest Mayr and Jeffrey W. Baker.
BioScience, 19 (1969), 400.
— . "Population,Food, and Environment: Is the Battle Lost?" The Biologist, 51 (1969), 8-19.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P.H. Raven. "Differentiation of Populations." Science, 165 (1969), 1228-1232.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren. "Population and Panaceas: A Technological Perspective." BioScience,
19 (1969), 1065-1971.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P.F. Brussard. "Population Structure of Erebia Epipsodea. I. Population Structure."
Ecology, 51 (1970), 119-129.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "Seeds of Change: The Green Revolution and Development in the 1970s," byLester R. Brown. Praeger Publishers. Natural History, 79 (1970), 77-78.
— . "People Pollution." Audubon, 72 (1970), 4-9.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P.F. Brussard. "ContrastingPopulation Biology of Two Species of Butterfly." Nature,
227 (1970), 91-92.
Ehrlich, P.R. "A Note on the Systematic Positionof Papilio Antimachus." Journal of the Lepidopterists'
Society, 24 (3), Aug. (1970).
Ehrlich, P.R. and L.E. Gilbert. "The Affinities of the Ithomiinae and the Satyrinae (Nymphalidae)."
Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society, 24 (4), Nov. (1970).
Ehrlich, P.R. "Man is the Endangered Species." National Wildlife,April—May, 8:3 (1970), 38-39.
— . "We're Standing on the Edge of the Earth." National Wildlife,8:6 (1970), 16.
Ehrlich, P.R. and P. Brussard. "Adult Behavior and Population Structure in Erebia Epipsodea."
Ecology, 51(1970), 880-886.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Lassa Fever: 1970-1972." Australian Natural History, Dec. (1970),
437-441.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren. "Impact of Population Growth." Science, 171 (1971), 1212-1217.
Ehrlich, P.R. and M.C. Singer. "Butterfly Feeding on Lycopsid." Science, 172 (1971), 1341-1342.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.E. Breedlove, P.F. Brussard and M.A. Sharpe. "Weather and the 'Regulation' of
SubalpinePopulations." Ecology, 53 (1972), 243-247.
Ehrlich, P.R. (Editorial) "Is the Tide Turning?" BioScience, 22 (1972), 277.
— . "One-DimensionalEcology." The Ecologist, Aug. (1972), 11-21.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.E. Breedlove. "Coevolution: Patterns of Legume Predation by a Lycaenid
Butterfly." Oecologia, 10 (1972), 99-104.

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Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Wing-Shape and Adult Resources in Lycaenids." Journal of the
Lepidopterists' Society, 26 (1972), 195-197.
Ehrlich, P.R. Intro. to "Blueprint for Survival," by the editors of The Ecologist. Boston: Houghton
Mifflin, 1972.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Coevolution: Heterotypic Schooling in Caribbean Reef Fishes." The
American Naturalist, 107, Jan–Feb (1973), 157-160.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.E. Breedlove and A.J. Beattie. "The Ecology of the Pollinators and Predatorsof Frasera
Speciosa." Ecology, 54 (1973), 81-91.
Ehrlich, P.R. and L. Gilbert. "The Population Structure and Dynamics of a Tropical Butterfly,
Heliconius Ethilla." Biotropica, 5 (2) (1973), 69-82.
Ehrlich, P.R., P. Dolinger, W.L. Fitch and D.E. Breedlove. "Alkaloid and Predation Patterns inColorado Lupine Populations." Oecologia (Berl.), 13 (1973), 191-204.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Human Populations and the Global Environment." Prepared for the United Nations
Symposium on Population, Resources, and Environment. Stockholm: September 24–October 5,
1973.
—. "How Long can the Planet Support Us?" International Wildlife, 4 (2), March–April (1974), 21-23.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren. "Human Population and the Global Environment."American Scientist,
62, May–June (1974), 282-292.
Ehrlich,P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Ehrlich's Guide to the Apocalypse:Food." The CoEvolutionQuarterly,
Summer (1974), 21-41.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Human Population and Environmental Problems." Environmental Conservation, 1(1974), 15-20.
Ehrlich, P.R., M. Sharp and D. Parks. "Plant Resources and Butterfly Habitat Selection."Ecology, 55(1974), 870-875.
Ehrlich, P.R., P.F. Brussard and M.C. Singer. "Adult Movements and Population Structure in
Euphydryas Editha." Evolution, 28 (3) (1974), 408-415.
Ehrlich, P.R., R.R. White, M.C. Singer, et al. "Checkerspot Butterflies: A Historical Perspective."
Science, 188 (1975), 221-228.
Ehrlich, P.R., S.W. McKechnie and R.R. White. "Population Genetics of Euphydryas Butterflies. I.
Genetic Variation and the Neutrality Hypothesis." Genetics, 81 (1975), 571-594.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren. "Eight Thousand Million People by the Year 2010?" Environmental
Conservation, 2 (4) (1975), 241-242.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Benefits of Saying Yes!" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 31 (6) (1975), 23-51.
—. "Human Population and the Global Environment." Prepared for the United Nations Symposium on
Population Resources and Environment. In Vol. II, The Population Debate: Dimensions andPerspectives. (Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974.UN Dept. Economic
and Social Affairs, Population Studies, No. 57). U.N., N.Y., 1975.
—. "Papilio Xuthus (Papilionidae) in Hawaii." Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society, 30 (2), 12 July
(1976), 149-50.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "The World Food Problem: No Room for Complacency." Social
Science Quarterly, 57 (2) (1976).
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.P. Holdren. (Editorial) "Eight Thousand Million by the Year 2000." The Ecologist,
London: 6 (4) (1976).
Ehrlich, P.R., R.D. Schrier, M.J. Cullenward, and R.R. White. "The Structure and Genetics of aMontane Population of the Checkerspot Butterfly, Chlosyne Palla." Oecologia (Berl.), 25 (1976),
279-289.
Ehrlich, P.R. (Editorial) "Ecologists, Ethics, and the Environment." BioScience, 27 (4) (1977), 239.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.C. Ogden. "The Behavior of Heterotypic Resting Schools of Juvenile Grunts(Pomadasyidae)."Marine Biology (1977), 273-280.

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Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. (Letter) "Reply to Petersen." Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 58, No. 2(1977), 330-331.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "The Limits of Altruism. An Ecologist's View of Survival," by Garrett Hardin.
Human Nature, Vol. 1, No. 3,18-21. March 1978.
— . Rev. of "Sociopolitical Aspects of Biology." Biology as a Social Weapon. Ed. Ann Arbor Science
for the People Editorial Collective. Minneapolis: Burgess Publishing. BioScience, Vol. 28, No. 6(1978), 404.
— . "Population Biology: Bicentennial Assessment." Rev. of "Changing Scenes in Natural Sciences"
1776-1976." Science, 201 (1978), 898-899.
— . Rev. of "Steady State Economics," by Herman E. Daly. Human Nature. 1 (8) (1978), 20-24.
— . "Recombinant DNA, P.R. Ehrlich, and Friends of the Earth." Letter for FOE by P.R. Ehrlich andreply. CoEvolutionQuarterly, Spring (1978), 24-27.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Comments on Astropollution." CoEvolution, Summer 6 (1978), 1.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.Camin. "Endocyclic Selection in Natrix." American Naturalist, 114: 5 (1979), 747.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Paul R. Ehrlich Considers Silent Spring." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 35:8, Oct.
(1979), 34-36.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "International Year of NO Child?" Environmental Conservation, Vol.
6, #1, Spring (1979), 1-2.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Butterflies of Jasper Ridge." The CoevolutionQuarterly, Summer (1979), 50-55.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "What Happened to the Population Bomb?" Human Nature, January(1979), 88-92.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Joseph H. Camin." Journal Kans." Ent. Soc., 52:4 (1979), 835-6.
Ehrlich, P.R. and R.R. White. "Colorado Checkerspot Butterflies: Isolation, Neutrality and the
Biospecies."American Naturalist, 115:3 (1980), 328-341.
Ehrlich, P.R., H.A. Mooney, D.E. Lincoln, and K.S. Williams. "Environmental Controls on the
Seasonality of a Drought Deciduous Shrub, Diplacus Aurantiacus, and its Predator, the Checkerspot
Butterfly Euphydryas Chalcedona." Oecologia (Berl.), 45 (1980), 143-146.
Ehrlich, P.R., J.P. Holdren and A.H. Ehrlich. Response to "Resources, Population, Environment: An
Oversupply of False Bad News," by J.L. Simon. Science, 210 (1980), 1296-1301.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.D. Murphy, M.C. Singer, et al. "Extinction, Reduction, Stability and Increase: The
Responses of Checkerspot Butterfly (Euphydryas) Populations to the California Drought."
Oecologia (Berl.), 46 (1980), 101-115.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Two California Checkerspot Butterfly Subspecies: One New, One on
the Verge of Extinction." Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society, 34 (1980), 316-320.
Ehrlich, P.R. and I.L. Brown. "The Population Biology of the Checkerspot Butterfly, Euphydryas
Chalcedona." The Structure of the Jasper Ridge Colony. Oecologia (Berl.), 47 (1980), 239-251.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Environmental Disruption: Implications for the Social Sciences. And an Economist in
Wonderland." Social Science Quarterly, 62:1,March (1981), 7-22; 44-49.
Ehrlich, P.R., G.R.V. Anderson, A.H. Ehrlich, et al. "Community Structure of Coral Reef Fishes."
American Naturalist, 117 (4) (1981), 476-495.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Extinction or a Strategy of Conservation." Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists,June/July (1981), 25-30.
— . "The Politics of Extinction." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,May (1981), 26-30.
— . "Why Butterflies?" The Amicus Journal, 2 (4) (1981), 12:116.
Ehrlich, P.R. and C.E. Holdren. "Long Range Dispersal in Checkerspot Butterflies: Transplant
Experiments with E. Gillettii." Oecologia, 50 (1981), 125-129.
Ehrlich, P.R., H.A. Mooney and K.S. Williams. "Temporal and Spatial Variability in Interaction
between the Checkerspot Butterfly E. Chalcedona and Its Principal Food Source, the California
Shrub, Diplacus Aurant Iacus." Oecologia, 50 (1981), 195-198.

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Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. (Editorial)"Dangersof UninformedOptimism."Environmental
Conservation,Fall 1981.
Ehrlich,P.R. Rev. of "Overshoot:EcologicalBasis of RevolutionaryChange,"by W.R. Catton,Jr.
AmericanScientist,69 (5) (1981),559.
Ehrlich,P.R., and MeinwaldEisner,et al. (Letter)"Conservationof TropicalForests."Science,213(1981),1314.
Ehrlich,P.R."AnEcologistStandingUp amongSeatedSocialScientists."CoEvolutionQuarterly,Fall(1981),24-35.
—. "HumanCarryingCapacity,Extinctions,andNatureReserves."BioScience,32 (5)(1982),331-333.
Ehrlich,P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich."SpaceAge CargoCult." Defendersof Wildlife,57 (1) (1982),2-5.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.E. Lincoln,T.S. Newton, and K.S. Williams. "Coevolutionof the Checkerspot
ButterflyEuphydryas Chalcedonaand Its Larval Food Plant, Diplacus Aurantiacus:Larval
Responseto ProteinandLeafResin."Oecologia(Berl.),52 (1982),216-223.
Ehrlich,P.R.andCherylE. Holdren."EcologicalDeterminantsof FoodPlantChoicein the Checkerspot
ButterflyEuphydryasEdithain Colorado."Oecologia(Berl.),52 (1982),417-423.
Ehrlich,P.R. Rev. of "WorldPopulationandHumanValues:A NewReality,"by J. Salk and J. Salk.
Bulletinof theAtomicScientists,May2 (1982),53-54.
Ehrlich,P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich."ButterflyRetreat:Loss of HabitatImperils a GrowingNumberof
Species."Defenders,April(1982),21-27.
—. "SocialBehaviorof Butterflyand SurgeonFishes on Coral Reefs: Some MirrorExperiments."
Oecologia,54 (1982),138-140.
Ehrlich,P.R. "That's Right—YouShouldCheckIt for Yourself."SocialSciencesQuarterly,63 (2)(1982),385-387.
—. "Disarmament:TheLesserRisk."Bulletinof theAtomicScientists,38 (6) (1982),7-8.
Ehrlich,P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich."Coevolution,Drugs,and Pest Control."Bios.,53 (1982),134-138.
Ehrlich,P.R.andD.D.Murphy."ButterflyNomenclature:A Critique."J. Res.Lepid.,20 (1982),1-11.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Lizard Predation on Tropical Butterflies." Journal of the
Lepidopterists'Society,36 (2) (1982),148-152.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "The World Environment 1972-1982:" A Report by the UnitedNations
EnvironmentProgramme.Ed. M. W. Holdgate,M. Kassas,and G. F. White. BioScience,33 (3)(1983),202.
—. "Downto Earth:EnvironmentandHumanNeeds."E.P.Eckholm.BioScience,33 (3)(1983),202.
Ehrlich,P.R., D.D. Murphy and A.E. Launer."The Role of Adult Feedingin Egg Productionand
PopulationDynamicsof the CheckerspotButterflyEuphydryasEditha." Oecologia,56 (1983),
257-263.
Ehrlich,P.R.,K.S.WilliamsandD.E.Lincoln."TheCoevolutionofEuphydryasChalcedonaButterflies
andTheirLarvalHostPlants.I. LarvalFeedingBehaviorandHostPlantChemistry."Oecologia,56(1983),3223-3329.
Ehrlich,P.R.,K.S.WilliamsandD.E.Lincoln."TheCoevolutionof EuphydryasChalcedonaButterflies
andTheirLarvalHostPlants.II. MaternalandHostPlantEffectson LarvalGrowth,Development,
andFood-UseEfficiency."Oecologia,56 (1983),330-335.
Ehrlich,P.R.andH.A.Mooney."Extinction,Substitution,andEcosystemServices."BioScience,33(4)(1983),248-254.
Ehrlich,P.R.andD.D.Murphy."Nomenclature,
TaxonomyandEvolution."J. Res.Lep.,20 (4)(1983),
199-204.
Ehrlich,P.R. "SummerButterfliesin DinosaurNationalMonument."Journal of the Lepidopterists'
Society,37 (1) (1983),91-92.
—. Rev. of "SaveThermosphaeroma
Thermophilum!"by S.M.Wells,R. M. Pyle,and N.M.Collins.
TheIUCNInvertebrateRedDataBook.L. LineandL. and M. Milne,The AudubonSocietyBook139

of Insects. Natural History, 92 (10), Oct. (1983), 77-83.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. (Editorial) "Old Myths Die Hard!" Environmental Conservation, 10 (2)(1983), 89-90.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Butterflies and Biospecies." J. Res. Lepid., 21 (4) (1983), 219-225.
Ehrlich, P.R., M.C. Singer and P. J. DeVries. "The Cissia Confusa Species-Group in Costa Rica andTrinidad (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae)." Zool. J. Linnean Society, 79 (1983),101-119.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Butterfly Nomenclature, Stability, and the Role of Obligatory
Categories." S. Zool., 32 (1983), 451-453.
Ehrlich, P.R., et al., (Senior author with 19 contributors). "Long-Term Biological Consequences of
Nuclear War." Science, 222 (4630) (1983), 1293-1300.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Crows, Bobs, Tits, Elfs, and Pixies: The Phoney 'Common Name'
Phenomenon." J. Res. Lepid., 22 (2) (1983), 154-158.
Ehrlich, P.R. "North America after the War." Natural History, 93 (3) (1984), 4-8.
— . "Discoveringthe Ecology of Nuclear War." The Amicus Journal, 5 (3) (1984), 42020-42030.
— . Rev. of "Coevolution." Ed. D. J. Futuyma. Evolution, 38 (1) (1984), 226-227.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Biosystematics of the Euphydryas of the Central Great Basin with the
Description of a New Subspecies." J. Res. Lepid., 22 (4) (1984), 254-261.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.D. Murphy and M.S. Menninger. "Nectar Sources as a Determinant of Oviposition
Host Species in Euphydryas Chalcedona." Oecologia, 62 (1984), 269-271.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Nuclear Winter Update for Coevolution Quarterly." CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer
1984,94 (accompaniesreprint of Amicus Article).
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "On Butterfly Taxonomy." J. Res. Lepid., 23 (1) (1984), 19-34.
Ehrlich, P.R., E.H. Williams and C.E. Holdren. "The Life History and Ecology of Euphydryas Gilletti
Barnes (Nymphalidae)."J. Lepid. Soc., 38 (1) (1984), 1-12.
Ehrlich, P.R., N.D. Johnson, C.C. Chu, and H.A. Mooney. "The Seasonal Dynamics of Leaf Resin,
Nitrogen, and Herbivore Damage in Eriodictyon Californicum and Their Parallels in Diplacus
Aurantiacus." Oecologia, 61 (1984), 398-402.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Citation Classic—Butterfliesand Plants: A Study in Coevolution." Evolution, 18 (1964),
586-608. Current Contents 15 (37) (1984), 16.
Ehrlich, P.R., A. E. Launer and D. D. Murphy. "Can a Sex Ratio Be Defined or Determined? The Caseof a Population of Checkerspot Butterflies." Amer. Natur., 124 (4) (1984), 527-539.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "Biophila: The Human Bond to Other Species," by E. 0. Wilson. Natural History,
Nov. 93 (1984), 92-94.
Ehrlich, P.R., C. Sagan, V. V. Alexandrov, A. S. Pavlov. "Washington Forum on the World-WideConsequences of Nuclear War." Disarmament, Autumn, 7 (3) (1984), 32-72.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.Wheye. "Some Observations on Spatial Distribution in a Montain Population of
Euphydryas Editha." J. Res. Lep., 23 (1984), 243-252.
Ehrlich, P.R. and F. J. Odendaal. "A Migration of Urania Fulgens (Uraniidae) in Costa Rica.".
Biotropica, 17 (1) (1985), 46-49.
Ehrlich, P.R., F.J. Odendaal, and Y. Iwasa. "Duration of Female Availability and Its Effect on Butterfly
Mating Systems."American Naturalist, 125 (1985), 673-678.
Ehrlich, P.R., N.D. Johnson and S.A. Brain. "The Role of Leaf Resin in the Interaction between Erio
Dictyon Californicum (Hydrophyllaceae) and its Herbivore, Trirhabda Diducta (Chrysomelidae)."
Oecologia, 66 (1985), 106-110.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "The Resourceful Earth: A Response to 'Global 2000' ." Ed. J.L. Simon and H.
Kahn. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. Bulletin of the AtomicScientists, February (1985), 44-47.
Ehrlich, P.R., L.E. Mueller, D.D. Murphy, and B.A. Wilcox. "A Direct Assessment of the Role of
Genetic Drift in Determining Allele Frequency Variation in Populations of Euphydryas Editha."
Genetics, 110 (1985), 495-511.

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Ehrlich, P.R. "Human Ecology for Introductory Biology Courses: An Overview. Science as a Way of
Knowing."American Zoologist, 25 (1985), 379-394.
— . "Humankind's War against Homo Sapiens." Defenders, Nov.—Dec. (1985), 4-12.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. Rev. of "The Audubon Society Handbook for Butterfly Watchers," byR. M. Pyle. N.Y.: S. Charles Scribner' s Sons, 1984. J. Res. Lepid., 24 (1985), 381-382.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Invaders." The Mother Earth News. Jan—Feb. 97 (1986), 118-120.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Ecological Understanding is Not Free: The Case for Basic Research" Excerpt from
Machinery of Nature. N.Y.: Simon and Schuster, 1986. The AmicusJournal, 7 (1986), 7-8.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "World Population Crisis." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,42 (1986),
13-19.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D. Wheye. "Non-Adaptive "Hilltopping" Behavior in Male Checkerspot Butterflies(EuphydryasEditha)." Am. Nat., 127 (1986), 447-483.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Needed: An Endangered Humanity Act?" TheAmicusJournal. Spring(1986), 12-14.
Ehrlich, P.R., B.A. Wilcox, D.D. Murphy and G.T. Austin. "Insular Biogeography of the Montane
Butterfly Fauna in the Great Basin: Comparison with Birds and Mammals." Oecologia, 69 (1986),
188-194.
Ehrlich, P.R., F.R. Stermitz, D.R. Gardner, and F.J. Odendaal. "Euphydryas Anicia (Lepidoptera:
Nymphalidae) Utilization of Iridoid Glycosides from Castilleja and Besseya (Scrophulariaceae)
Host Plants." J. Chemical Ecology, 12 (1986), 1459-1468.
Ehrlich, P.R., P.M. Vitousek, A.H. Ehrlich and P.A. Matson. "Human Appropriation of the Products of
Photosynthesis." BioScience,36 (1986), 368-373.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.D. Murphy,M.S. Menninger, and B.A. Wilcox. "Local Population Dynamics of Adult
Butterflies and the Conservation Status of Two Closely Related Species." Biol. Cons., 37 (1986),
201-223.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Paul R. Ehrlich Speaks Out on Population and Health." ComplementaryMedicine, 2(1986), 25-27.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Population and Development Misunderstood." The Amicus Journal,
Summer (1986), 8-11.
— . "Chernobyl, Cancer, and Cheating." The AmicusJournal. Fall (1986), 16-18.
— . (Letter) "Exhausting Mother Nature." WilsonQuarterly, New Year's Issue, 1987.
Ehrlich, P.R., and A.H. Ehrlich, Peter Vitousek and Pamela Matson. (Letter) "How Many Creatures?"
BioScience,April, Vol. 37,4 (1987), 246.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.H. Ehrlich and Harold Mooney. (Letter) "Marshall's Article on Nuclear WinterOverlooks Several Critical Points." Science, February 20 (1987), 832.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Why Do People Starve?" The Amicus Journal, Spring, Vol. 9, No. 2(1987), 42-47.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Why the Club of Earth?" Trends in Ecology &Evolution, May, Vol. 2, No. 5 (11) (1987).
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Conservation Lessons from Long-Term Studies of Checkerspot
Butterflies." Conservation Biology,Vol. 1, No. 2 (1987), 122-131.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Back to Birding." American Birds, 41 (2) (1987), 237-245.
Ehrlich, P.R., S.B. Weiss, R.R. White, and D.D. Murphy "Growth and Dispersal of Larvae of the
Checkerspot Butterfly EuphydryasEditha." Oikos, 50 (1987), 161-166.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.S. Dobkin and I. Olivieri. "Rainfall and the Interaction of Microclimate with Larval
Resources in the Population Dynamics of Checkerspot Butterflies (Euphydryas Editha) Inhabiting
Serpentine Grassland." Oecologia, 7 1 (1987), 161-166.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Back from the Abyss." Sierra, March—April (1987), 55-60.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Population Biology, Conservation Biology, and the Future of Humanity." BioScience,
37:10 (1987), 757-763.

141

Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. Rev. of "The Birth Dearth," by Ben Wattenberg. The AmicusJournal,
Winter, Vol. 10, No. 1 (1988), 38-40.
Ehrlich, P.R., J.F. Baughman and D.D. Murphy. "Emergence Patterns in Male CheckerspotButterflies:
Testing Theory in the Field." Theor. Pop. Biol., 33 (1988), 102-113.
Ehrlich, P.R. Rev. of "The Preservation of Species:The Value of Biological Diversity,"by B.G. Norton.
BioScience,38 (1988), 424-425.
Ehrlich, P.R., J.F. Baughman and D.D. Murphy. "Population Structure in a Hilltopping Butterfly."
Oecologia, 75 (1988), 593-600.
Ehrlich, P.R. and D.D. Murphy. "Plant Chemistry and Host Range in Insect Herbivores." Ecology, 69(1988), 908-909.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Winged Warning." Sierra, September/October(1988), 57-61.
Ehrlich, P.R., D.D. Murphy and B.A. Wilcox. "Islands in the Desert." Natural History, 97:10, October
1988,59-64.
Ehrlich,P.R. and D. Wheye. "HilltoppingCheckerspotButterflies Revisited." The American Naturalist,
132 (3), Sep. (1988), 460-461.
Ehrlich, P.R., S. Harrison and D.D. Murphy. "Distribution of the Bay Checkerspot Butterfly,
EuphydryasEditha Bayensis:Evidence for a MetapopulationModel." TheAmerican Naturalist, 132(3) (1988), 360-382.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Red-Naped Sapsuckers Feeding at Willows: Possible Keystone
Herbivores."American Birds, Vol. 42, No. 3, Fall (1988).
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. "Population,Plenty, and Poverty." National Geographic, Vol. 174, No.
6, December 1988,914-945.
Ehrlich,P.R., P.F. Brussard, J.F. Baughman,et al. "Complex Population Differentiation in Checkerspot
Butterflies (Euphydryas spp.)." Can. J. Zool., 67 (1989), 330-335.
Ehrlich,P.R. "Facing the HabitabilityCrisis." BioScience,Vol. 39, No. 7, July/August (1989), 480-482.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Mission of AIBS." BioScience,. Vol. 39, No. 11, Dec. (1989), 810.
Ehrlich,P.R. and Anne H. Ehrlich. "The EnvironmentalDimensionsof National Security." Proceedingsof the Thirty-EighthPugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs. "Global Problems andCommon Security," Dagomys, USSR. 29 August-3 September 1988,443-455. Also published in
Global Problems and Common Security: Annals of Pugwash 1988. Ed. J. Rotblat and V.I.
Goldanskii. N.Y.: Springer-Verlag, 1989,180-190.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Population and Environment." Environmental Awareness, Vol. 12, No. 3 (1989),
107-109.
Ehrlich, P.R..andA.H. Ehrlich. "The Population Explosion: Why Isn't Everyone as Scared as We Are?"
The AmicusJournal, Vol. 12, No. 1, Winter (1990), 22-29.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Enjoying Being a Non-Expert." American Birds, 43:5, Winter 1989
(1990), 1249-1250.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Growing, Growing, Gone." Sierra, March/April (1990), 36-40.
— . Rev. of "Global Warming: Entering the Greenhouse Century," by Stephen H. Schneider.
BioScience,40 (1990), 305.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Garbage Birds." American Birds, 44:1, Spring (1990), 7-8.
— . "AIBS Task Force for the '90s." BioScience,40:7, July/August (1990), 527.
— . "Birding for Fun: People vs. Birds." American Birds, 44:2, Summer (1990), 193-196.
— . "Habitats in Crisis: Why We Should Care about the Loss of Species." Forest Ecology andManagement, 35 (1990), 5-11. The Netherlands: Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam.
Ehrlich, P.R. and J.F. Baughman and D.D. Murphy. "A Reexamination of Hilltopping in Euphydryas
Editha." Oecologia, 83 (1990), 259-260.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Evolutionary Theory and Birding." American Birds, 44:3, Fall (1990),
353-355.

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Ehrlich, P.R., J. Baughman, P. Brussard, and D. Murphy. "History, Selection, Drift, and Gene Flow:
Complex Differentiation in Checkerspot Butterflies." Can. J. Zool., Vol. 68 (1990), 1967-1975.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Birding for Fun: Seeking Sapsucker Secrets." American Birds,
44:5, Winter 1990 (1991), 1067-1070.
Ehrlich, P.R., Karen Holl and Gretchen Daily. "Integrated Pest Management in Latin America."
Environmental Conservation, 17:4, Winter 1990. (1991) 341-350.
Ehrlich, P.R., Stuart C. Weiss, Paul M. Rich, et al. "Forest Canopy Structure at Overwintering Monarch
Butterfly Sites: Measurements with Hemispherical Photography." Conservation Biology, 5:2, June
(1991).
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: The Sex Life of Birds." American Birds, 45:1, Spring 1991,21-22.
Ehrlich, P.R., S. Harrison, J.F. Baughman, et al. "Estimating the Effects of Scientific Study on Two
Butterfly Populations." Amer. Nat., 137:2, February (1991), 227-243.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Biodiversity and Humanity: Science and Public Policy." Environmental Awareness,
14:1, Jan—Mar (1991), 27-35.
"Birding for Fun: Sexual Selection ." American Birds, 45:2, Summer (1991), 200-202.
Ehrlich, P.R. and E. 0. Wilson. "Biodiversity Studies: Science and Policy." Science, Vol. 253, Aug. 16,
1991,758-762.
Ehrlich, P.R. (Letter) "Population Diversity and the Future of Ecosystems." Science, Vol. 254, October(1991), 175.
— . "Birding for Fun: Displays and Dominance." American Birds, 45:3, Fall (1991), 366-368.
Ehrlich, P.R., Gretchen Daily, Harold Mooney and Anne Ehrlich. "Greenhouse Economics: Learn
before You Leap." Ecological Economics, 4 (1991). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers 1-10.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich. Readings from "Healing the Planet: Strategies for Solving theEnvironmental Crisis," Addison-Wesley. Sierra, Nov/Dec 1991 (1992), 107-108.
Ehrlich, P.R., G. Daily and D. Wheye. "Determinants of Spatial Distribution in a Population of the
Subalpine Butterfly Oeneis Chryxus." Oecologia, December 1991, 88:4 (1992), 587-596.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Counting Birds." American Birds, 45:5, Winter 1991 (1992),
1041-1043.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Peter F. Brussard. "The Challenges of Conservation Biology." EcologicalApplications, Vol. 2, No. 1, Feb. (1992), 1-2.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Now, If I Ruled the World." Sierra, Vol. 77, No. 3, May/June 1992,
118-119.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Population Biology of Checkerspot Butterflies and the Preservation of Global
Biodiversity." Oikos, 63:1, Copenhagen 1992,6-12.
— . "Birding for Fun: Birds and the Literature." American Birds, 46:1, Spring (1992), 18-20.
— . "Environmental
Deterioration,
Biodiversity and the Preservationof Civilization."
The
Environmentalist, 12:1 (1992), 9-14.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "The Scale of the Human Enterprise: What Should the Earth Summit
Accomplish?" Environmental Awareness, 15:2, April—June (1992), 73-76.
—. "The Value of Biodiversity." Ambio., 21:3, May (1992), 219-226.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Birds in Jeopardy." American Birds, 46:2, Summer (1992), 188-192.
Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. "Needed: An Endangered Humanity Act?" The Amicus Journal, 14:3,
Fall (1992), 26-27.
Ehrlich, P.R. "The Professional Biologist: One Ecologist's Opinion on the So-Called Stanford Scandals
and Social Responsibility." BioScience, 42:9, Oct. (1992), 702-705.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Population, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity."
BioScience, 42:10, Nov. (1992), 761-771.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Thoughts on Sparrows." American Birds, 46:3, Fall (1992), 354-356.
— . "Birding for Fun: Avian Coevolution." American Birds, 45:5, Winter 1992 (1993), 1078-1081.

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Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Population, Extinction and Saving Biodiversity."Ambio.,22:2-3,
May (1993), 64-68.
—. "Birding for Fun: Sapsuckers, Swallows, Willow, Aspen, and Rot." American Birds, 47:1, Spring(1993), 18-20.
Ehrlich, P.R., Erica Fleishman, John F. Baughman, et al. "The Effect of Fluorescent Pigments on
Butterfly Copulation." Ecological Entomology, 18:2,May (1993), 165-167.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Avian Adaptation." American Birds, 47:2, Summer (1993), 195-198.
— . "Is the Extinction Crisis Real?" WildlifeConservation, Sept./Oct. (1993), 66-67.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Birding for Fun: Dominance and Dickey-Bird Dining." American
Birds, Vol. 47, No. 3, Fall (1993), 343-345.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Science and the Management of Natural Resources." EcologicalApplications, 3 (4) (1993), 558-560.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Ehrlich on Immigration:Separate Science from Politics." Audubon Activist,Nov. (1993),
4.
Ehrlich, P.R., A.E. Launer, D.D. Murphy, et al. "Puddling Behavior by Bay Checkerspot Butterflies(Euphydryas Editha Bayensis)." J. Res. Lep., 32 (1993), 45-52.
Ehrlich, P.R., S. Weiss, D. Murphy, "Adult Emergence Phenology in Checkerspot Butterflies: The
Effects of Macroclimate, Topoclimate, and Population History." Oecologia, 1993, 96:2 (1994),
261-270.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Birding for Fun: Birds, Butterflies, and Forest Patches." American Birds, Winter 1993.
(1994), 1044-1046.
Ehrlich, P.R. and M.C. Singer. "Host Specialization of Satyrine Butterflies, and Their Responses toHabitat Fragmentation in Trinidad." J. Res. Lep., 30 (3-4), 1991 (1994), 248-256.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Enhancing the Status of Population Biology." Trends in Evolution and Ecology, 9:4,
April (1994), 157.
Ehrlich, P.R., Karen D. Holl and Gretchen C. Daily. "The Fertility Plateau in Costa Rica: A Review of
Causes and Remedies." Environmental Conservation,20:4, Winter 1993 (1994), 317-323.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Energy Use and Biodiversity Loss." Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences(The Royal Society), 344 (1994), 99-104.
— . "Population and Sustainable Development." Environmental Awareness, 17:2 (1994), 53-58.
Ehrlich, P.R., G.C. Daily and A.H. Ehrlich. "Optimum Human Population Size." Population andEnvironment, 15:6, July (1994), 469-475.
Ehrlich, P.R., H.R. Sparrow, T.D. Sisk, et al. "Techniques and Guidelines for Monitoring Neotropical
Butterflies." Conservation Biology, 8:3 (1994), 800-809.
Ehrlich, P.R., T.D. Sisk, A.E. Launer, and K.R. Switky. "Identifying Extinction Threats." BioScience,
44:9, Oct. (1994), 593-604.
Ehrlich, P.R., J.H. Cushman, C.L. Boggs, et al. "Estimating Female Reproductive Success of a
Threatened Butterfly: Influence of Emergence Time and Host Plant Phenology." Oecologia, 99(1994), 194-200.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Influence of Social Status on Individual Foraging andCommunity Structure in a Bird Guild." Oecologia, 100 (1994), 153-165.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Wild Birds are in Jeopardy." Intro. to Audubon Wild Bird Desk Diary 1995. N.Y.:
Macmillan, 1995,4 pp.
Ehrlich, P.R., Gretchen C. Daily and Anne H. Ehrlich. "Socioeconomic Equity: A Critical Element in
Sustainability." Ambio.,24:1, Feb. (1995), 58-59.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Preservation of Biodiversity in Small Rainforest Patches: Rapid
Evaluations Using Butterfly Trapping." Biodiversityand Conservation, 4 (1995), 35-55.
Ehrlich, P.R., T. Sisk, A. Launer, and K. Switky. (Letter) "Response to Woodwell." BioScience, 45:6
(1995), 380.

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Ehrlich, P.R., Gretchen C. Daily and Anne H. Ehrlich. (Letter) Response to Bartlett and Lytwak"Population and Immigration Policy in the United States." Population and Environment, 16:6
(1995), 521-526.
Ehrlich, P.R., Lynn E. Dwyer and Dennis D. Murphy. "Property Rights Case Law and the Challenge tothe Endangered Species Act." Conservation Biology,9:4 (1995), 725-741.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Call it Brownlash." World Watch, Sept./Oct. (1995), 5-6.
Ehrlich, P.R., M.E. Power, D. Tilman, S.T. Carpenter, et al. (Letter) "The Role of Experiments in
Ecology." Science, Vol. 270, Oct. 27 (1995), 561.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Stephen H. Schneider. "Bets and "Ecofantasies." Environmental Awareness, 18:2
(1995), 47-50.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Our Demographic Future: Predictions for the Next 50 Years." Population Today, 23:1,
Dec. (1995), 3.
Ehrlich, P.R., Karen D. Holl and Gretchen C. Daily. "Knowledge and Perceptions in Costa Rica
Regarding Environment, Population, and Biodiversity Issues." Conservation Biology, 9:6 (1995),
1548-1558.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Nothing New." BioScience,46:1 (1996), 5.
Ehrlich, P.R., Sandra L. Postel and Gretchen C. Daily. "Human Appropriation of Renewable Fresh
Water." Science, 297:5250 (1996), 785-788.
Ehrlich, P.R., Gretchen C. Daily and Marina Alberti. "Managing Earth's Life Support Systems: The
Game, the Players, and Getting Everyone to Play." Ecological Applications, 6 (1) (1996), 19-21.
Ehrlich, P.R. (Letter) "The Business of Butterflies."Audubon, 98:3 (1996), 12.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Anne H. Ehrlich. "Biodiversity and the Brownlash." Defenders, Fall (1996), 6-17.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Gretchen C. Daily. "Socioeconomic Equity, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying
Capacity." Ecological Applications, 6 (4) (1996), 991-1001.
Ehrlich, P.R. "Conservation in Temperate Forests: What Do We Need to Know and Do?" Forest
Ecology and Management, 85:1-3 (1996), 9-19.
— . "1990: Population Biology and AIBS." BioScience,47:10 (1997), 653-654.
Ehrlich, P.R., Jennifer B. Hughes and Gretchen C. Daily. "Population Diversity: Its Extent andExtinction." Science, 278, Oct. 24 (1997), 689-692.
Ehrlich, P.R., Thomas D. Sisk, and Nick M. Haddad. "Bird Assemblages in Patchy Woodlands:
Modeling the Effects of Edge and Matrix Habitats." Ecological Applications, 7 (4) (1997),
1170-1180.
Ehrlich, P.R., Erica Fleishman, Alan E. Launer. "Effects of Microclimate and Oviposition Timing on
Prediapause Larval Survival of the Bay Checkerspot Butterfly, Euphydryas Editha Bayensis
Lepidoptera:Numphdlidae)."J. Res. Lep., 36 (1997), 31-44.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Brian Walker. "Rivets and Redundancy." BioScience, May (1998), 387.
Ehrlich, P.R., Gretchen Daily, Partha Dasgupta, Bert Bolin, et al. "Food Production, Population Growth,and the Environment." Science, 281:5381 (1998), 1291-1292.
Ehrlich, P.R. and Fakhri Bazzaz, Gerardo Ceballos, Margaret Davis, et al. "Ecological Science and the
Human Predicament." Science, 282:5390 (1998), 879.
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146

Profile

Professor Qu Geping
ChairmanNationalof the Environmental
People's

Congress

Protection

and Resources

Conservation

Committeeof theof China

Education

and AcademicandProfessional

1930

Born

in June in China.

1952

B.A.,

Shandong

1957-1961

Director,

Baoding

1962-1968

Division

Chief,

Ministry

1968-1974

Division

Chief,

State Planning

1972

Member,Activities

University.

ChineseFilm Factory.
of Chemical

Delegation

Industry.

Commission/Planningto United

NationsGroupof the State Council.

Conference

on theHumanEnvironment
1975-1976

ChineseRepresentative,

UnitedNations

Environment

1976-1982

DeputyDirector,of Environmental

Protection

OfficeProgramme.
LeadingGroupof the StateCouncil.
1982-1993

Administrator,

1984—

Part-Time Professor, Beijing University.
Part-Time Professor, Qinghua University.
Gold Medal, UNEP.
First National Prize for Scientific and Technical Advancement.
Part-Time Professor, People's University of China.
President, China Environment and Science Association.
Deputy Director, Chinese Delegation to the Rio Earth Summit.
UNEP Sasakawa Prize.
Chairman, Environmental Protection and Resources Conservation Committee,
National People's Congress of China; Member, Standing Committee, NPC.
President, Environmental Protection Industry Association.
President, China Environmental Protection Foundation.

1985—
1987
1988
1989—
1990-1996
1992
1992
1993-

19931993—

National

Environmental

Protection

Agency.

Following his participation in the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment in
Stockholm as a member of the Chinese delegation, Professor Qu Geping enthusiastically aided
the cause of environmental protection in China. At his initiative, China adopted its firstnational environmental protection policies based on the three principles of "prevention," "thepolluter bears responsibility," and "stronger environmental regulation."
He personally supervised the scientific surveys required to gather up-to-date data on the
problems and their solutions to provide a solid basis for regulations. He also promoted the scientific and technological resolution of problems by establishing research institutions to mon-147

itor pollution, develop new technologies and teach environmentalism.
China's large population has been a major cause of adverse environmental impacts. He
has devoted special attention to the environmental impact and pressure of population growthin his published articles and books. In this way, he contributed to the establishment of successful Chinese family planning programs.
He has used methods to raise the general public's environmental awareness that are
unique among socialist nations. For example, he started in 1993 with national environmentalpress campaigns in whichjournalists were requested to report the full extent of domestic environmental problems, which had a huge effect on the citizenry.
China faces many environmental issues. Professor Qu, however, asserts that "the environment will improve without fail if we apply these laws and policies effectively.Blue skies
and clean water will once again be ours." This is the belief on which he continues to press forward with his conservation activities.

148

EssayLet Nature

Guide

Man

and Createa New Civilization

for Mankind
Professor Qu Geping
June 2001

Ladies and gentlemen, during the current Mansfield Pacific Retreat successfullyhosted by theMaureen & Mike Mansfield Center in cooperation with the Chinese People's Association forFriendship with Foreign Countries, we havehad profound and enlighteningdiscussions on theenvironmental issues from many perspectives, ranging from technology, law and policy tomanagement. Now I would like to share with you some of my views on the future of humancivilization in the new century from a cultural perspective.
Standing at the threshold of the new century, what can we say about the future? I cannot predict it for I am neither a futurist scholar, nor a prophet . However, as a veteran fighter forenvironmental protection, I believe that we will be able to create a better future if mankind
works together and reaches a common understanding.
The twentieth century is characterized by industrial civilization.We are living in the civilization and enjoying all the benefits and convenienceit has brought us. Information dissemination has become so much better than before that inter-personal communication and understanding of each other are a lot easier. We are surrounded by civilization both physically andmentally. Our thinking as well as our languages all bear its mark. But we have also realizedwith pain that the industrial civilization has estranged us from nature, from other people andfrom ourselves. We have even forgotten who we are.
It is high time for us to wake up. Mankind cannot but be alert to where the industrial civilization is leading us. Are we going to build on the planet a lifeless and apathetic world ofmachines? Will our homes inevitably slip into the bog of pollution? I reckon our children andour children's children, future masters of our planet, would not allow us to do so, and would
hate to see such a prospect. In the new century, we and our future generations should rely on
our wisdom to create a new civilization and a new homeland on the planet.
What would the new civilization look like? What shall we call it? We may call it "green
civilization,""eco-civilization" or something else. Its main features, however, should remain
the same: a new alliance between man and nature and between men themselves, and man's
recovery of his lost self.
I am not able to give you a full picture of the new civilization here. But I understand thatthe crux of the value of the civilization would lie in a perfect integration of the ancient andmodem civilizations, and of the Eastern and Western civilizations. This would be a brand new149and attractiveform of civilization.
The new civilization should readjust three relationships: the relationship between man
and nature, between men, and that of man to himself. It is precisely on this point that the newcivilization would bring to us an entirely new concept of value, distinguishable from the oldindustrial civilization.
Now I will try,to describe the crux of the value of the new civilization.
Under the new civilization, what would the three relationships of most interest to
mankind be like?
Under the new civilization, man's attitude towards nature should be: "Let nature guideman (Shi Fa Ziran)," as Lao-Tzu, an ancient Chinese philosopher, taught us in his Tao Te
Ching. You must know the name Lao-Tzu, who enjoyed the same reputation as Confucius, as
one of the founders of Chinese civilization.His simple dialectic thinking has been accepted by
the world. For example, the design of the national flag of the Republic of Korea embodies his
idea "Yinplus yang means Tao (the Way). "To follow the law of nature does not mean that we should become slaves of nature likeour early ancestors, who felt awed and prostrated themselvesbefore the strangephenomena of
nature as they knew very little, if not nothing, about its secrets.
Nor does it mean that we should followin the footsteps of the founders of industrial civilization, who used science and technology to exploit nature for benefits and set their mind on
conquering nature and becoming its masters.
Rather than becoming slaves or masters of nature, we should be its friends. To follow
the law of nature means to acquire the wisdom of living harmoniously with nature, the mostimportant wisdom to all mankind.
Environmental problems often result from our ignorance or insufficient knowledge ofnature. Their ultimate solution does not lie exclusively in science and technology. In fact, we
can often find their solution in natural ecosystems.
The ancient Chinese thought has an important concept, which calls for "integration of
man and nature (Tian Ren He Yi)."It pursues perfect harmony between man and nature. In theeyes of the ancestors of the Chinese people, forests are our hair, rivers our blood, mountains
our heads and the earth our chests. Every natural being should be respected for its form of life.
The same concept was found in many peoples' early history, such as that of the American
Indians and the Mayan people. We should not think it outdated today. It is, on the contrary,what should be valued and carried on. When we come in touch with nature, we should feel
grateful to it for our lives and all the happiness that comes with them.
The twenty-first century would be a century to see man forming an alliance with nature.
He would find the value and truth of life in nature; and to follow the law of nature and integratewith nature would become the highest principle of mankind in the next century.
The second relationship that the new civilization should readjust is the relationshipbetween men. The attitude of men towards each other should be "to befriend others." Thegreat ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius said "It is harmony that is prided (He Wei Gui),"
which means that peace and friendship are most important and that hatred and hostility should
be discarded.We should not shift our own troubles onto others, nor seclude ourselves from oth-150

ers and refuse to communicate. Instead, we should respect, try to understand, learn from andhelp each other.
Since ancient times, our planet has witnessed countless wars. Whatever the cause, theirresults have been the same: devastatingdisasters to both mankind and the environment.Many
civilizationseven declined as a result of eco-system collapse caused by wars. The Mayan civilization is a typical case in point.
In the next century, should another war break out, there would be no winners but losers.
It would be an unprecedented disaster to mankind'.Man must learn to handle differences andconflicts between peoples and between states in a rational way. "Burying the hatchet and turning swords into plowshares,"seeking common ground while reserving differencesthrough dialogue and consultation, and going for peaceful coexistence should become important conceptsof the new civilization in the new century. "Others are not hell." Instead, they are our teachersand helpful friends. Confucius said "Even when walking in a party of no more than three, I canalways be certain of learning from those I am with." This is quite true.
The third relationship that the new civilization must readjust is man's attitude towardhimself. The attitude should be "to restrain desires and demands." The ancient Greek philosopher Socrates' admonition "to understand yourself' is still applicable today.
What does man need and how much does he need? I remember a Russian fable, whichgoes like this: One day, a landlord said to his farm hands: "Is it true that you all want land? All
right, you start to run from the east to the west when the sun rises tomorrow morning, andreturn to where you start by sunset. All the land you have covered by then will be yours." The
next morning, the farmers started running at sunrise. The fastest runner returned to the original place at sunset and should have expected the largest piece of land. However, he died ofexhaustion. The landlord, after burying him in a hole, asked the remaining men: "How muchland do you think a man really needs? You have all seen what he needs is only a small pieceof no more than two meters long and one meter wide." This is thought-provoking.
If we do not control our desires and demands, I do not think our planet would be able tosupport the six-billion people today and the nine-billion in the next century. We must find a
new point of balance between man's desires and the earth's bearing capacity.
At the age of 70 and as a veteran fighter for environmental protection, I feel that
although I'm getting old, my will remains strong. Togetherwith all friends present here today,
I am willing to work as an architect for the new civilization, and to contribute all my wisdom
and energy to mankind's new homeland.

151

Lecture

My Dreams
30 Years of Involvementand Expectations
with Environmental

Protection

Professor Qu Geping
Ladies and Gentlemen, it is a great privilege and honor to receive the Blue Planet Prize today
in the beautifulcity of Tokyo. I am fully aware that this is not only an honor for myself, but also
a symbol of the Japanese people's profound friendship and a demonstration of their warm support for China's environmental protection.
Thirty-seven years ago when the planet we inhabited was covered with dark clouds ofpollution, a physically weak but spiritually strong woman called for environmental protection
with all her wisdom, enthusiasm and courage. Her words shook the world. Cherishing a greatlove for Mother Earth, this "daughter of nature" wrote an immortal book entitled "Silent
Spring," which turned out to be her life's magnum opus. Her call awakened the United States,
as well as all other countries, to the fragility of the world in which we live. The seeds of environmental protection sown by her have now taken root among the public. The woman's namewas Rachel Carson. Let us remember her here today.
In 1972,the United Nations, conforming to the historical trends of the times, convened
an international conference on the human environmentin Stockholm. That conference was thefirst joint action by the global community to express concern for the planet's welfare. It was
like a powerful lighthouse, illuminating a path for world environmental protection efforts. I
was fortunate to have attended the conference as a member of the Chinese delegation.
Although I was deeply worried by the existing situation and the future of the earth describedin the conference proceedings, I was greatly encouraged by the awakening of and actions by
fellow men and women. As a bright torch, the conference became my beacon of hope for a
promising future. It was at that time that I made up my mind to devote my whole life to China's
environmentalprotection efforts.
Come to think of it, almost thirty years have passed since then. In the long historicalriver, thirty years are merely drops of water. However,it is a very long span of experiences fora man. Confucius,one of China's ancientphilosophers, said "At 40, I was no longer perplexed"and "At 70, I follow all my desires and none of them is against the norms." What he meant isthat people will feel very clear about what they want when reaching 40 and that they can follow their will at the age of 70. I joined the environmental protection movement at the age ofbeing "no longer perplexed" and am now reaching the age of "following all my desires" withnone of them against the norms. I feel especially lucky that my past 30 years of life are closelyinterwoven with China's environmental protection efforts and that I have made my humble
contributionsto the noble cause.
These 30 years have seen three stages of development in China's environmental pro-152

tection:

an embryonic

between1979 and 1991,

stage between

1970

and a monumental

and 1978,a foundation-laying

development

stage fromand growing

stage

1992 to the present.

1. The Embryonic Stages of China's Environmental Protection Activities
Between 1970and 1972, China weathered the dramatic storm of the "Cultural Revolution,"thenational economy was on the verge of falling apart and the country was in a state of totalchaos. Surprisinglyenough, environmentalprotection,just a tiny seedling at the time, sprouted
miraculously from such adverse circumstances.It was Mr. Zhou Enlai, the Chinese premier at
the time, who cultivated that seedling.
Mr. Zhou Enlai was the pioneer and leader of China's environmental protection movement. With his unique vision and sensitivity as a politician, he accurately pointed out thatenvironmental problems could turn out to be very difficult to surmount on China's future
developmentpath. At that time, a number of pollution accidents in Japan had alarmed him. He
felt that China would also face similar problems arising from industrialization and that "preparation should be made before it rains" to provide against possible trouble. He authorized thePlan-Drafting Group of the State Council to take charge of pollution prevention and control.
It so happened that I was involvedin that group. Thanks to my assignment to coordinate withthe fuel and chemical industrial departments, which were contributing greatly to pollution, I
was given the job to look after work concerning environmentalprotection. It never occurred to
me at that time that this temporary labor assignment would develop into my life-long cause.
Joining environmental protection efforts was a bit accidental. But this fortuitous event
was an unexpected "fruit" that arose from seeds planted earlier. I was born in a small village
at the foot of Mount Tai in Shandong Province. The village sat next door to the Beishan
Mountain, on which a huge fortified mountain village was situated.On top of the mountain andlocated in the center of the village was a temple for sacrifices to supernatural beings. It seemedas high as the sky and was decoratedwith curly foggy clouds all year round. Further down themountain was a Confucian temple named the "Book Airing Temple." The legend goes that
Confucius got his books wet while crossing a nearby stream and laid out his books on themountain stones to dry. Later generations built the temple to commemorate this event. I
remember that lots of thousand-year old pines and cypresses clustered around the temple, luxuriously green and astonishingly magnificent. Below the temple was a clear little stream,
combing through the area unhurriedly like a jade belt twining around the ancient building.
Green mountains, clear water, pines and cypresses, together with the temple,presented a wonderful picture in which human culture and the natural world existed in perfect harmony. Such
was my childhood world. This environment stimulated a nascent love for nature in my young
heart.
I have always loved literature and this love continues whether I am studying or working. From the Book of Songs 2,600 years ago to the poetry of Chu, the prose of the Han
Dynasty, and even to the poems of the later Tang and Song Dynasties, praising nature was an
enduring topic. Chinese painting also focuses on natural scenery to express feelings. The
beauty of the Chinese art of gardening exists in the combination of buildings and the natural
world. When I am immersed in the world of Chinese literature and art, I can not help but feel153

that nature is both a treasured wealth and a source of man's aesthetic sensibilities and artistic
activities. China's long and splendid culture that regards nature as its basis provides the richest soil for the growth of our efforts to protect the environment.
However, germination of green seedlings requires a suitable climate. This climate
finally asserted itself in 1972 when the late Premier Zhou Enlai decided to send a delegation
to the United Nation's Conferenceon the Human Environment in Stockholmin order to let the
Chinese whose "eyes were shut and ears blocked" to go out and see the world. Although our
minds were still bound by the Cultural Revolution, the Stockholm Conference was no doubtof far-reachingand enlightening significance,which made us realize for the first time our own
persistent environmental problems.
In 1973, China took an essential step toward environmental protection. Under Zhou
Enlai's personal care, we convened China's First National Conference on Environmental
Protection—the prelude to China's entire environmental protection campaign.
Understanding guides actions. Without sufficient understanding, actions will not manifest. When China was busy with its Cultural Revolution, people were close-minded, unwilling and perhaps not daring to admit that socialist China had pollution—such despoilment was
only an incurable disease of Western capitalist countries. He who admitted the existence ofpollution in China was no different from a man who plastered unfavorable marks on socialism.
How ridiculous was the logic. But at that time no one had the courage to doubt that belief.
Under such circumstances, environmental protection was not a topic of conversation.
The wisdom of Zhou Enlai lay in the fact that he never let go of the issue until people
understood and recognized it. The First National Conference on Environmental Protection
was obviously a key to environmental protection. Chinese people had begun to realize that
their country was faced with serious pollution problems. It was only after the conference that
China's environmental protection efforts started in spite of all difficulties.
However, when other undertakings languished, it was very difficult to sustain theseearly efforts. The active guidance and involvementof Zhou Enlai enhanced my understanding
and confidencein environmental protection. My colleagues and I were not daunted. Guided bya sense of responsibilityand strong belief, we moved forward despite the atmosphere of adversity.
At that time, our job was like that of a fire brigade. Wherever there was a big fire, we
responded. We organized our efforts on control and management of a number of the mostcomplained-aboutproblems. Our more significant and effectiveresponses included water pollution management in the Guanting Reservoir of Beijing, the Bai Yangdian Lake of Hebei
Province and the Lijiang River of Guilin, and air pollution management in Shenyang and other
cities.
I believe that some of the ladies and gentlemen present have been to Guilin for sightseeing.Its hills and waters are like a painting of intoxicating beauty. There is a widespread saying in China, "the mountains and waters of Guilin are the finest under heaven." We feel proudof having such scenery.But Guilin's Lijiang River sufferedfrom severepollution in the 1970s.
A large number of major polluting factories were built on both sides of the river, and industrial
sewage turned the originally clear water to a disgusting dark color. Mr. Deng Xiaoping, who154

had just resumed his position at that time, commented that our errors would outweigh ourachievements if the pollution of the Lijiang River were not controlled. We carried out resolute
management activities: closing down 27 factories that contributed to serious pollution within
two years and making the river clear again. Imagine the determination it took to close down somany factoriesin a small- to medium-sized city at a time when our national economy was lagging behind those of the rest of the world.
The pollution and treatment of the Lijang River provided us with a useful lesson andexperience. We realized that economic developmentmust coordinate with environmental protection and that growth should never be pursued at the expense of the environment. This experience was later used for the management of the Huaihe River Valley and a few other valleys
in the 1990s.
Everything is hard in the beginning. Whenever we look back at the pioneering period,
I feel some sadness but also happiness. As the great Russian poet Aleksandr Pushkin said in
one of his poems, "Everything happens in a twinkling and all is to pass. But what is passed will
become fond memories."
2. Growth Springing from the Foundation
China greeted bright sunny days in 1979 when the country began to reform and open to the outside world, and its economy started to rapidly develop. It was also in 1979 that China's environmental protection swept away a dark winter and entered a beautiful spring. The
Environmental Protection Law, the first legislation of its kind in Chinese history, was formallypromulgated, marking a transitional development from general policy to legislation for environmental protection.
The second period of environmental protection spanned from 1979to 1991 when theories, policies, legislation and management systems were developed with great achievements,
gradually shaping and completing a policy system with Chinese characteristics. At the sametime, we conducted large-scale pollution control and management for industries and urban
areas, preventing a dramatic worsening of the environment and laying a solid foundation for
the future.
As administrator of the National Environmental Protection Agency during that period,
I was involved in a series of changes. It was most gratifying to see that environmental protection was made a basic state policy and was gradually known to the whole of society.The factthat China prioritized environmental protection to such an extent when it had just started its
modernization demonstrated the far-sightedness of the Chinese government and also reflected
the unique situationin the country.
First, China's huge population of 1.2 billion presents great pressure on the environment. All environmental problems, those concerning natural ecology in particular, are direct
or indirect results of this pressure. This is different from many other countries in the world.
Therefore, we have had to promote family planning policy to reduce pressure on the environment. Secondly,China's environmental pollution and ecological destruction are already outstanding.Without attention to the environment in the process of modernization, serious results
would have occurred and modernization would have been greatly hindered.

155

It is upon such understanding that we proposed that China should not follow the traditional "pollution first and management second" path of developed countries . Instead, weshould coordinate economic development and environmental protection. We should develop
an economy that facilitates environmental protection and protect the environment to promote
the economy. Towards these ends, we started to map out a set of policies and institutional andlegislative systems to facilitate the implementation of the basic state policy of environmental
protection.
There are three major thoughts behind China's environmental policies. The first is tomake "prevention first" the basic starting point for policies. Environmental protection measures should be carried out together with economic and urban construction, instead of taking
remedial actions after construction. The second is to make those who cause pollution takeresponsibilityfor the pollution and pay for management.The third is to intensify management,
which means formulating plans and necessary policies and regulations and establishing powerful institutionsfor monitoring and management.These thoughts arise from the considerationthat China's pollution is mainly a result of mismanagement and that limited economic capacity makes it impossible to allocate sufficient financial resources for pollution prevention andcontrol. We must rely on powerful management to prevent the situation from further worsening. These three thoughts behind our policies represent the crystallization of our long-standing practice in the field.
During this time, China also formulated eight regimes. These were the Environmental
Impact Assessment Regime, the "Three Synchronizations"Regime (i.e. design, construction
and operation of measures for pollution prevention should be carried out at the same time as
the major engineering part of the project), the Pollution Fee Regime , the Environmental
ObjectiveResponsibility Regime, the Comprehensive Quota Examination Regime for Urban
Environmental Management, the Permit Regime, the Time-Limit Management Regime and
the Pollution Concentration Control regime. Meanwhile, we also worked out a number of concrete regulations and measures to go with these regimes. All of this formed a relatively complete framework, which changed management from qualitative to quantitative and from fragmented administrativeorders to a binding system, laying a solid foundation for our efforts inthe field.
During this period, our legislative drafting efforts also made great headway. We successively formulated four laws on pollution control, including the Law on Environmental
Protection, the Law on Atmospheric Pollution Prevention and Control, the Law on Water
Pollution Prevention and Control, and the Law on Marine Environmental Protection . This
number rises to 13 if we include laws on the conservation of natural resources. At the sametime, we issued several hundred administrativeand local regulations to implement these laws .
A preliminary legislative framework for environmental protection had taken shape.
There is an old saying in China: "there won't be any bounds if there are no rules ."Thanks to the rules which we establishedgradually in the 1980s, we now have principles to follow and laws to observe, a solid step in exploring the bounds of our path to environmental protection with Chinese characteristics.
In the opening and reforming years of the 1980s, we set up comparatively effective

156

management institutions in the central and local governments and carried out efficient management in accordance with laws, policies and plans. Under the circumstances of doubled
economic growth, environmental problems did not worsen at the same speed and environmental quality remained roughly at the level existing at the beginning of the decade. Certain
areas even improved their environment.This shows that China has adopted correct and effective environmentalpolicies, which suit the country's unique conditions.
Internationalfriends often ask me about the meaning of "environmentalprotection with
Chinese characteristics."My answer is: to rely solely on developed countries' "Western medicines" would not be able to cure China's persistent environmental ailments. We need to take
into considerationthe real situation and find out practical and functional "Chinese medicines"
to deal with our problems. The three major environmental policies and accompanying management regimes set up in the past 10 years or so have proved to be effectiveremedies for environmental problems.
3. The Development and Expansion of Environmental Protection Activities
China determinedto practice a socialistmarket economy in 1992. This was another qualitative
jump in terms of reform and "open door" policies. It was also in the same year that the United
Nations held the Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil("UNCED"), beginning a new era in environmental protection. Similarly, China's environmental protection entered a new phase of development.
Twenty years ago, there was almost no environmental protection to speak of in the
country. Twenty years later, reform and open-door policies have brought about significant
changes. China has opened its eyes to see the world and, likewise, the world community hascome to know China. After braving wind and rain in the past 20 years, the seedling of environmental protection in China has finally matured, tall and strong.
In 1992, China sent a large delegation to UNCED, and I attended as deputy-head of thedelegation.Before the conference,and in order to coordinate the positions of developingcountries, we invited ministers from 41 countries for a Beijing Conference. The resulting document,the "Beijing Manifesto" expounded these countries' positions and viewpoints toward theworld environment and development and had an extensive influence. At the Rio meeting,
China worked closely with the Group of 77 developing countries (Group 77), and we jointly
put forward position documents and draft resolutions in the name of Group 77+1, whichbecame foundation documents for North-South negotiations. When debates stalled and negotiation stopped, China, at the request of various sides, played the role of mediator and promoter. As a large developing country, China made important contributions to the success of
UNCED.
UNCED was also of unusual significance to myself, because I was honored with the
Sasakawa Award (i.e. the UN Environmental Award) at the conference. I knew very well that
this was not only a commendation to myself, but also confirmationfrom the world communityof the value of China's efforts in creating a path of environmental protection with Chinesecharacteristics during its reform and opening period. My colleagues were especially encouraged by the event. The results of their many years of hard work finally won the recognition of157

the world community.
I drafted a policy report entitled "China's Ten-Point Policy for Environment andDevelopment"right after the conference.In the report, I made it explicitly clear that it was necessary that China follow a sustainable development strategy in its modernization process,which was well accepted by the top leaders of the government. The Party Central Committee
and the State Council soon transmitted the report throughout the country. Immediately afterward, a sustainable development strategy became a long-term guiding principle in China's
Agenda 21, which was compiled by concerned departments under the State Council. Later in
1994,at the Third Plenary Session of the 14th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, theconcept was further confirmed as the strategy to follow in China's future development.
Since 1992, environmental protection in the country has moved from pure pollution
control to comprehensivemanagement and ecological construction. In terms of pollution control and management, we have prioritized control and management of big rivers and lakes,
such as the Huaihe River, Haihe River, Liaohe River, Taihu Lake, Dianchi Lake and Chaohu
Lake, and initiated air-pollution control in Beijing city and marine-pollution control in Bohai
Bay. Altogether more than 60,000 enterprises with serious pollution were closed down acrossthe country. Moreover,environmental investmentincreased to 1% of GDP in 1998, which was
unprecedented in China and close to the level of developed countries.
In terms of ecological construction,we have practiced policies such as closing hillsides
to facilitate reforestation, returning farmland to forests and returning farmland to lakes andgrasslands. We have undertaken natural forest conservation projects and retrained over a million lumbermen to be tree planters. We have carried out enthusiastic soil conservation at theupper Yangtze River and Yellow River valleys. We have fostered protective forest belts in theecologically fragile northern part of China, building a magnificent green Great Wall thatstretches over half of our territory.
In terms of the conservation of natural resources, we have implemented strict protective
measures for farmland and followed the policy that whoever uses farmland will need to compensate for the use to guarantee a total land balance. In offshore areas, we have practiced a general rehabilitation system to protect fishery resources. In terms of the conservation of mineral
resources, we have closed down a large number of small mines equipped with outdated
machines that cause huge damage to resources, and have engaged in effective efforts to comprehensively use solid wastes and recover wastes and worn-out materials.
The ecological environment in China is experiencing a transitional "destruction torecovery" period:.We are confident that as long as we work consistently, the environment willchange for the better in 20- or 30-year's time.
In 1993, my job changed from that of a government official to that of a congressman,and I became chairman of the Committee for EnvironmentalProtection and Natural Resources
Conservation of the National People's Congress. Although my role is different from before,
my responsibility for the environment remains the same, and I am still working hard for thecause.
Protecting the environment in China depends on management and control. On what
does management depend? It depends on legislation. On what does legislation depend? It158

depends on science and technology and appropriate investment.
To facilitate legislation has been my most important task since I joined the National
People's Congress. Our work over the past few years has predominantly consisted of three
things. Firstly, we design and build legislative systems for environmental protection and natural resource conservation. As for pollution control, we have revised and formulated laws onair, water, solid wastes and noise. As for natural resource conservation,we have participatedin revising or formulating laws on mineral, water, forest, land and energy resources.
Encompassing the Grassland Law, Wildlife Protection Law, Fisheries Law, and Water andSoil Conservation Law, we have generallycrafted a legislative framework for the environmentand resources. As an enhancement to this framework, there is a provision in our amended
Criminal Law addressing the "destruction of environmental resources," which is the first time
we have criminalized pollution and resource destruction. This was put into practice without
delay, effectively deterring environmental criminals.
Secondly,we monitor law enforcement and implementation.Whether legislation plays
any role depends on enforcement and implementation.However nice legislationmay be, without enforcement, laws are nothing but mere scraps of paper. Ever since 1993, and in order toencourage implementation of related laws, we have organized law enforcement inspections in
29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, and examined hundreds of cities and ahuge number of factories. To a certain extent, we have changed the situation in which laws are
not respected, enforcement is not strict and violation is not dealt with, thus laying the foundation for the rule of law in the protection of the environment and natural resources.
Thirdly, we mobilize public opinion to enhance environmental monitoring. In today's
modem society where information is highly developed, the role of the media regarding social
behavior is more obvious than ever before. Therefore, media monitoring is of great importance. Since 1993, we have mobilized hundreds of mass media institutions for a campaign
called "China's Environmental Protection Activities for the Century." We use newspapers,
radio and televisionto commend organizationsupon their good enforcementand to expose andcriticize others for weak efforts or destruction of the environment in order to create favorable
and powerful public opinion for environmental protection at large in society.For seven years,
this activity has covered every corner of the country, attracting over 6,000 reporters who havepublished nearly 50,000 news articles and reports, touching off strong social responses andmeeting with warm public reception.For example, newspaper reports on the serious pollutionof the Huaihe River drew the immediate attention of the central government, which lost no
time in implementing a river control and management project. The project has by now
achievedpreliminary results. The coastal area campaign of last year brought an overall inspection of the coast of the country, and provided us with additional ideas on marine pollution control. The theme of this year's campaign is "Love our Yellow River." More than 50 reporters
took part in the activity and drove from the source of the river to where it met the sea, covering a distanceof 20,000 kilometers.They commended whoevercared for the river and exposed
whoever damaged it, achieving great success. Cradle of the Chinese nation, the Yellow River
has always been our mother river, which we can never do without. As regards the pollution of
the river, we have no other alternativesbut setting out for control and management. "China's

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Environmental
monitoring

Protection
methodActivities

for the Century"

has turned

out to be an effective

media

for law enforcement.

4. My Dreams and Expectations
There are such words in the Analects of Confucius: "Confucius said while standing by a riverthat water was running past day and night, and so quickly." Even Confucius felt that time flew
by quicklyjust like the passing of water in a river. How true it is. Before I knew it, thirty years
passed. Although environmental protection in China has endured many hardships, the cause,
which is like a ship, has after all broken solid ice, cleared away clouds on its way, hoisted thesails and set out on a journey in fair weather.
Now, we are just about to enter a new century. Every one of us is concerned with the
future of our environment in the next century. At this moment, I feel so much and have many
dreams and expectations.
I wish that one day my grandchildren will enjoy themselves happily in the clear streamof our hometown, just as I did in my childhood. I wish that green mountains and rivers will
decorate their dreams and that golden fields will be full of hopes.
I wish that the sky will always be blue and marked with white clouds, rivers will always
be clear with fish playing contentedly,vigorous eagles will always soar to great heights, birds
will always be singing happily on top of trees, the polluted habitat will never be polluted any
more, and the silent spring will never be silent again.
I wish that one day barren hills will be covered with green vegetation, dry land will be
blessed with sweet rains, wild floods will no longer roar with rage and burning hot waves will
never wreak havoc.
I wish that one day every valley will blossom with flowers of hope, every brook will
dance joyful dances, all wasteland will turn green and all lives will receive concern and lovefrom heaven and kind treatment from mankind.
I like the following words: "today's sun is different from that of yesterday and the sun
tomorrow will be even better than today."I am confident that as long as we work concertedly,
these dreams will finally come true. In conclusion, I would like to put forth for consideration
the following advice from a veteran environmental worker to the people of the Earth Village:"Those who destroy their homeland surrender their future.""Those who protect the environment are tomorrow's champions."160

Major Publications
Professor Qu Geping
Books
Geping, Qu. China's Environmental Problems and Countermeasures. China Environmental Sciences
Publishing House, 1984.
—. China's Environmental Management. China Environmental Sciences Publishing House, 1989. (In
Chinese and English).
—. China's Environment in 2000. Economic Daily Press, 1989.
—. China's Environment and Development. China Environmental Sciences Publishing House, 1992.
—. China's Population and the Environment. China Environmental Sciences Publishing House, 1992.
—. Pollution and the Environment in China. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1993.
—. Dictionary of Environmental Sciences. Shanghai Cishu Publishing House, 1994.
—. Challenges and Options. Yunnan Science and Technology Publishing House, 1994.
—. WeNeed a Reform. Jilin People's Publishing House, 1997.
—. Environmental Protection Knowledge Textbook. Red Flag Publishing House, 1999.
—. Dreams and Expectations. China Environmental Sciences Publishing House, 2000.
Articles (Selected)
Geping, Qu."The Impact of Fast-Increasing Population on the Environment." (1982).
—. "Strategic Problems of Environmental Protection in China." (1982).
—. "The Successful Development Way for Village and Township Enterprises—Studying the Shunde
Report." (1992).
—. "The Current Situation and Prospects for China's Ecological Agriculture." (1992).
—. "Prosperity and Decline of Civilizations and Environmental Changes." (2001).
Lectures (Selected)
Geping, Qu. Solving Environmental Problems in Development. UN Conference on the Human
Environment. Stockholm: 1972.
— . Walking in the Road of Harmonious Development. Oxford University, October 1984.
—. The Options for China's Environmental
Policies . UN Conference on Environment
andDevelopment. Rio de Janeiro, June 1992.

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