Patterns of Motorization Development andthe Next Generation Urban Mobility Systems
Katsutoshi Ohta

1. “3-Stage Development Cycle” Hypothesis (Prof. P. Jones)

2. Patterns of Motorization Development
3. ‘Auto Sapience’ and the Next Generation Urban MobilitySystems1

1-1 “3-Stage Development Cycle” Hypothesis : Prof. P. Joneson the evolution of urban transport polices

 Useful platform and Japanese cities:
Stage1 S1:’Vehicle’ focus － 1960’s～
Stage2 S2:’Personal movement’ focus － Middle of 1990’s～
Stage3 S3:’Activity/Quality of life’ focus － 2010’s～(?)
 Relation with ‘Transport Culture’－ Reflected in the motorization patterns, problems/issues
identified and policy responses in each countries/cities－Turning points and the key issues:
S0⇒S1: Traffic problems(congestion, accident, air pollution)
S1⇒S2: Environment, sprawl, the mobility poor, sustainability;
TDM and MM, 1997 COP3 Kyoto Convention
S2⇒S3: Global climate, depopulation and ageing, quality-oflife, health ; 2013 Basic Act of Transｐort Policy
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Fig. 1 Different Paths of Motorization development
Motorization

SL2
M2f?

vehicle ownership

D1‘peak car’

SL1

M1

Small truckD2D3
M2Car

M1f?

Light car
Motor cycle

t1t2

t3

PresentYear

Reference: M1, M2－Changes of vehicle ownership of city 1 and 2 (vehicles / 1,000 persons )SL1, SL2－’Saturation’ levels of vehicle ownership
D1－Difference of the saturation levelD2－Share of different types of vehicles
D3－Difference of the motorization timing and speed type3

1-2 P. J. Hypothesis and Transport Culture
D1 Vehicle ownership: saturation level (per person or per household)－Difference of the saturation level (vehicles /1,000 persons)
E.g. USA(800) > Europe, Japan(600) . Tokyo(300)－Underlining factors: income, population density, road and public
transport provision, life style, women’s role, etc.
D2 Social meaning and use of the vehicle－Vehicle type: car + pick up truck(USA), motorcycle (Asia)－Function: transport or social status, recreation or work/business－Roles of alternative modes (NMT, public transport)
D3 Contents and timing/speed of motorization:
Policy stance on motorization management－Industrial dev. policy (truck over car)－Restraint of ownership and use based on urban/ social/environmental policy (e.g. Singapore, Beijing)

4Major Causes of Policy Shift－Factors in Transport demand, supply and the market－
1.

Changes in demand side
－Demography：Population, ageing, suburbanization－Socioeconomic development：Income growth－Culture and the value：Westernization, sharing economy, peak-car

2.

Changes in transport supply side
－Technological innovation：Performance, Cost, materials, energy－New mobility system：Virtual transport, ride-share(Uber), automated car(AV)－Environmental / resource constraint：environmental capacities

3.

Changes in institutional framework of the market－Decision-making context：Political changes (leader)－Regulation, standards, framework for new problems and technology
Note. Policy shift is accelerated when the time is ripe w.r.t. various factors above.

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1-3 P. J.Hypothesis: Policy Shifts and their Causes
 Factors behind the policy shifts: New issues or key problems identified－Severe traffic problem (e.g. NOx/PM air pollution, climate change)－Shift of political, social, economic situation❑Ｐａｒａｄｉｇｍ shifts of the approach：－Ad hoc, piecemeal approach ⇒ Strategic approach－Demand-following approach ⇒ Integrated package approach Needs of new approaches－New problems and issues: Climate change, natural disasters,
security and technological innovations－ Increase of uncertainly in the socioeconomic context: theneed of new approach - Consensus building on visions andgoals, then act / implement together★Predict and Provide ⇒ Predict and Prevent ⇒ Decide and Act together

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2 Patterns of Motorization Development
Table1 City Type by Major Transport Modes (around 2000)
City typeCities

1.

Car City C1 (S1-max, and S2 , S3<15%)
Ho Chi Minh City★, Cape Town★, Kuala Lumpur★, Athens, Bologna,
Brussels, Chicago, Manchester, Melbourne, Stuttgart

2.

Public Transport (Transit) City C2 (S2-max, and S1 , S3<20%)
Dakar★, Manila★, Hong Kong, Warsaw, Tokyo

3.

NMT(walk/ bicycle) City C3 (S3-max, and S1 , S2<20%)
Mumbai★, Shanghai★, Johannesburg★, Amsterdam,Bilbao, Valencia, Osaka

4.

Muti-mode City C4・Car-base C41 (S1-max,and S2 and S3≧15%)
Cairo★, Bangkok★, Curitiba★, Seoul★, Barcelona, Berlin,Geneva, Hamburg, London, Madrid, Munich, Oslo, Paris,Rome, Stockholm, Vienna, Nagoya
・Public transport-base C42 (S2-max, and S1 and S3≧20%)
Bogota★, Prague★, Budapest, Moscow, Prague
・NMT (walk, bicycle)-base C43 (S3-max, and S1 and S2≧20%)
Harare★, Beijing★, Jakarta★, Sao Paulo, Osaka

Note1. S1, S2,S3－Modal share(%) of car, public transport and walk / bicycle.
2. Data： ★ －1995(Kenworthy, 26 cities), 3 Japanese cities (2010) and others 2000(UITP, 51 cities)

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2 Patterns of Motorization Development
Table 2 Main Public Transport Modes in Major Cities

JapanParatransit

Bus

Mixed modes

Railways

Notes
Motorization－Utsunomiya☆

Toyama, Nagoya

Tokyo

Matured(600)（ageing,depopulation）

New York

Matured(800)(congestion: peakcar? , car/cyclesharing)

U.S.A.

－Los Angeles☆

Portland, Boston,
San FranciscoEurope－Bristol,Cambridge

Munich, Zurich,
Copenhagen

London, Paris

Matured(~600)(peak car?
cycle revival)

OthersHanoi☆,
ManilaJakarta☆,
Curitiba, Bogota

Bangkok,Chengdu☆, Medellin☆

Beijing☆,Shanghai☆

Rapid increase（economic dev.
/urbanization）

Note1. NMT(walking and bicycle) is vital in many cities as an indispensable transport mode.
Besides car, motor cycle, SUV, small truck are used as a private mode.
2. ☆: Cities where development of modern public transport systems (BRT, LRT, subway etc.) are actively proceeded.
3. Paratransit includes various NMT modes (rickshaw and horse carriages).
Also, Motorized modes include two -, three –wheel vehicle, small 4 wheel cars and light trucks.
4. Numbers in the parentheses in Notes is the total vehicles ownership level i.e. vehicles per 1,000 persons.

82-1 Patterns of Motorization Development : Japan and Asia

 Modernization and development of urban public transport means－Man / animal powered (NMT)⇒Bicycle・paratransit⇒Bus・tram・rails－Exploring more convenient, affordable, safe and speedy transport means Co-existence of various transport means in Asian cities－Besides formal modes, various informal or intermediate public transportmodes (NMT plus MT) operate in the limited street space Different patters of motorization (vehicle type, motorization speed
and the saturation level )－Motorcycle or paratransit based motorization9

2-3 Patterns of Motorization Development
Private vehicle base
(Private car motorcycle)(Intermediate public transport)

Public transport baseYear

Pedestrian City(NMT)

19Century

Cycle City(Automobile)

Auto City

Auto City

Motor Cycle City

Motor Cycle City

Streetcar City

Paratransit City (NMT)Bus City

Rail City

1960’sParatransit City (NMT/MT)

Bus City

Rail City

1980’s(BRT)(BRT, LRT, AGT)Bus City

Mass Transit City

Present(AV)2030’sParatransit City (MT)(Future?)（AV）(Car-base) (2・3wheeder-base)
Matured Auto City?

(Bus-base)(Mass transit-base)Integrated multi-mode City

Goal: Sustainable city with the next generation mobility systems(Shared EV/FCV , Automated EV/AV or Auto Sapiens)Fig.2 Developments of Urban Transport System based on main public transport modes (Image)
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3 ’Auto Sapiens’ and the Next Generation Urban Mobility Systems－ICT technological innovation and automated vehicles
 Evolution of ‘Auto Sapience’ , connected and autonomous EV/AV－Depends of socioeconomic context of each city. The
possibility of ’leap frog’ propagation of the new technology.
－Adaptation of semi-automated technologies is expected soon.
Need some decades for fully automated system.

 The next generation mobility system will be a multi-modemobility system (AV mixed with conventional vehicles; walking asthe basic mode) : More choices of travel modes for all. Businessmodels of the mobility services face major revolution with ICT.
 Goals －Healthy and Sustainable City: Accessibility and various
travel options for all with sustainability subject to security andresilience, and avoiding the mobility divide
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Table ２ The Next Generation Urban Transport System with AV or AS- An Image Implications on Activity Modes and Transport Services
General－Level3: Automatic driving system with manual intervention at emergency.
- Level4: Driver and the passengers can do business / study / rest / enjoy coffee andother activities during the travel. On demand , door to door service by shared AV

・Transportmodes- Automated parking with e- recharge and maintenance at remote garage.
(Road/parking diet )- Automated mobility service of persons and goods available for all at all time.

・Transport
services- Personal travel basically provided by shared AS in urban areas. No need ofprofessional drivers in general. Conventional public mobility services or taxi-typeservices are also provided for non- AV and passengers with special mobility needs.
- The boundary of public and private mobility service becomes ambiguous with shared
AV.
- Personal ownership of AV and other vehicles is limited for the specific users- Personalized vehicle serves as a private room, storage of personal items and a shelter,
alternative supply source of electricity and information at emergency☆ Possible social dispute/confusion in the transitional period. E.g. TNC and Uber vs taxi.

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