THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SHORTS᪥ᮏ⤫ィᏛ఍䞉➨ 9 ᅇ ⤫ィᩍ⫱䛾᪉ἲㄽ䝽䞊䜽䝅䝵䝑䝥䝡䝑䜽䝕䞊䝍᫬௦䛾䝕䞊䝍䝃䜲䜶䞁䝇ᩍ⫱䛾⣔⤫ᛶ䛸ᶓ᩿ᛶ

International Year of Statistics 䛾䝃䜲䝖䛻᪥ᖖⓗ䛻౑䜟䜜䜛⤫ィ䛾౛䛸䛧䛶ึᮇ䛾ኳẼணሗ䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾グ஦䛜䛒䜛䚹•

When astronomer William Ernest Cooke was hired to run
the new Perth Observatory at the end of the 19th century,
he also was charged with providing weather forecasts forthe surrounding areas in Western Australia. But Cooke
was not satisfied with merely presenting his best
forecast—he also wanted to provide the public with ameasure of its uncertainty. So, in 1905, his team beganattaching uncertainty values on a five-point scale to their
twice-daily forecasts.

•Indeed, the forecasts he gave the highest rating toturned out to be correct 98.5% of the time, while
those given a rating in one of the two most uncertain
categories were only correct for 56.5% of theforecasts.

ຍ㏿䛩䜛᝟ሗ໬♫఍䚸⏕䛝ṧ䜚䛻ᚲせ䛺䝇䜻䝹䛸䛿䠛䡚⤫ィⓗⓎ᝿䛾⫱ᡂ䛸䚸௻ᴗ䛷ᚲせ䛸䛥䜜䜛ேᮦ䛸䝇䜻䝹䡚SAS INSTITUTE JAPAN LTD. JMP䝆䝱䝟䞁 ஦ᴗ㒊㔝⃝Ὀᙪ NICHOLASY.NOZAWA@JMP.COM

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THE CENTURY FOLLOWING THESE PIONEERINGPROBABILITY…
୍ୡ⣖䜢⤒䛶ኳẼணሗ䛾ண⢭ᗘ䜒⤫ィ䜢ྲྀ䜚ᕳ䛟⎔ቃ䛾ྥୖ䛻䜘䜚㐍Ṍ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹• つ๎ⓗ䛺䝕䞊䝍཰㞟– 䝃䝔䝷䜲䝖⾨ᫍ䚸㐲㝸ឤ▱ჾ䛛䜙䛾ୡ⏺䝺䝧䝹䛾⮬ື䝕䞊䝍཰㞟䚹• ⤫ィ䝰䝕䝹䛾☜❧– ⭾኱䛺䝕䞊䝍䛛䜙ぢ䜛ኚᩘ㛫䛾㛵㐃ᛶ䛾⌮ゎ䚹• 䝁䞁䝢䝳䞊䝔䜱䞁䜾䛾⢭ᗘྥୖ– 䜽䝷䜴䝗䝁䞁䝢䝳䞊䝔䜱䞁䜾䛺䛹䛿㐲㝸䝕䞊䝍཰㞟䛻䛿Ḟ䛛䛫䛺䛔≀䛻䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹• ⤫ィ䜢ᇶ䛻䛧䛯䝺䝫䞊䝖– ⌧ᅾ䛾ணሗ䛿㛗ᖺ⵳✚䛥䜜䛯᫬⣔ิ䚸ሙᡤ䛺䛹䛷ほ䛥䜜䛯䝕䞊䝍䛸䝸䜰䝹䝍䜲䝮ほ 䝕䞊䝍䜢ᇶ䛻⏕ᡂ䛥䜜䜛䚹

BIG DATA᫬᫬௦Big Data䛾ᢏ⾡ⓗ䛺ᴫᛕ䛿₍↛䛸⌮ゎ䛥䜜䛴䛴䛒䜛䛜䝸䜰䝹䝷䜲䝣”Big Data”䛸䛿䠛㻌 ㄆ㆑䛻ಶேᕪ䛜䛒䜛䛜䚸ศᯒ䛺䛹䛷⮬ᕫ᏶⤖䛜኱ኚ䛺䝕䞊䝍䛿䛩䛷䛻Big Data䛾㡿ᇦ䠛• 䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾ศ㔝䛷䛿ຠᯝ᳨ド䛜㞴䛧䛔䚸㞧ㄅ䚸䝔䝺䝡፹య䛛䜙䜸䞁䝷䜲䞁䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䜈䝅䝣䝖䚹㻌 䝁䞁䝞䞊䝆䝵䞁䚸ゼၥ⪅ᩘ䚸䜽䝸䝑䜽䝇䝹䞊⋡䛺䛹䛛䜙ຠᯝ䜢᳨ド䚹䝋䞊䝅䝱䝹䜶䞁䝀䞊䝆䝯䞁䝖䛺䛹䚹• Ⴀᴗ㒊㛛䛷䛿㢳ᐈ䝕䞊䝍䚸ぢ㎸䜏ᐈ䝕䞊䝍䛛䜙䝁䞁䝍䜽䝖䛾䝍䜲䝭䞁䜾䜢ぢฟ䛧䛯䜚䚸ᆅᇦ䝕䞊䝍䛛䜙ຠᯝⓗ䛺䝔䝸䝖䝸䞊ศ䛡䜔㈍኎ືྥ䜢ศᯒ䚹• 䜸䝨䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁㒊㛛䛷䛿SCM䜢౑⏝䛧䚸䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ᅾᗜ⟶⌮䜔Ⓨὀ䜢ண ⟶⌮䚹䛒䜎䜚ᬑẁ䛿⪃䛘䛺䛔䛜䚸ኳẼணሗ䛿ከ䛟䛾ே䛜䜰䜽䝉䝇䛩䜛᪥ᖖⓗ䛻኱ษ䛺䝕䞊䝍䛷䛒䜛䚹⌧ᅾ䛾ኳẼணሗ䛿ICT䛸⤫ィᏛ䛜ຠᯝⓗ䛻౑䜟䜜䛶䛔䜛Ⰻ䛔౛䛷䛒䜚⤒῭䛻ཬ䜌䛩ᙳ㡪䛿኱䚹
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• 䝣䜯䜲䝘䞁䝇㒊㛛䛷䛿䝖䝷䞁䝄䜽䝅䝵䞁䝕䞊䝍䛺䛹㈍኎䛻ᦠ䜟䜛䝕䞊䝍䜔䚸♫ෆ䛾኎䜚ୖ䛢䛻㛵䛩䜛䝕䞊䝍䜢ศᯒ䚸⟶⌮䚹• 䜸䝨䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁㒊㛛䛷䛿䝃䝥䝷䜲䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ᅾᗜ⟶⌮䜔Ⓨὀ䜢ணCompany Confidential - For Internal Use Only
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⟶⌮䚹BIG DATA 䝖䝺䞁䝗BIG DATA 䝖䝺䞁䝗• 䜲䞁䝍䞊䝛䝑䝖䜢፹య䛸䛧䛯䝕䞊䝍䛾ྲྀᚓ䛸ά⏝䛿௒ᚋ䚸ቑຍ䛾୍㏵䚹• ศᯒᚁ䛩௻ᴗ䛜䜲䞁䝎䝇䝖䝸䞊䝸䞊䝎䞊䛻䛺䜛᫬௦䛜┤䛭䛣䜎䛷᮶䛶䛔䜛䚹• ⡿ᅜ䛷䛿䛩䛷䛻ᑠ኎䜚⥲኎䜚ୖ䛢䛾༙ศ䛜䜸䞁䝷䜲䞁䜲䞁䝣䝹䜶䞁䝇䚹• 䛣䛾䝖䝺䞁䝗䛿䛥䜙䛻ఙ䜃⥆䛡䜛䚹

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⤫ィ䜔ᶵᲔᏛ⩦䜢ᑓ⾜䛧䛯༞ᴗ⏕䛾ᅜ㝿ẚ㍑⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛BIG DATA䛸䛸㞠⏝㛵ಀ䜰䝯䝸䜹䛷ồேເ㞟䛾䝖䝑䝥䛿䛩䜉䛶䝔䜽䝜䝻䝆䞊䛸䝡䝑䜾䝕䞊䝍䛻㛵㐃䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹• 2013ᖺ௨㝆䛾᪥ᮏ䛾GDP䜔ෆ㟂䚸እ㟂䛾Outlook䜢⪃䛘䜛䛸䛣䛾᪥ᮏ䛾༞ᴗ⏕䛾ᩘ್䛿㐺ษ䛺䛾䛛䠛•

McKinsey 䛾䝺䝫䞊䝖䛻䜘䜛䛸2018ᖺ䛻䛿ศᯒ㛵㐃ᴗົ䜢ᢸ䛖ேᮦ୙㊊䛜῝้໬䛩䜛䛷䛒䜝䛖䛸䛔䜟䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹
MS/PhD Ꮫ఩䜢ᣢ䛳䛯䜰䝘䝸䝔䜱䝑䜽䝍䝺䞁䝖䛜5~6๭䜒୙㊊䛩䜛䛸ண• 150୓ே䛾䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊䜔䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰䛜䝕䞊䝍䜢ᇶ䛻Ỵ᩿䜢⾜䛖䚹
•

䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹

Source: Linkedin, Indeed.com
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1These data count new graduates which we define as people with advanced training in statistics and/or machine learning and who conduct data analysis.
SOURCE: Eurostat; Russia Statistics; Japan Ministry of Education; India Sat; NASSCOMStrategic Review 2005; China Statistical Yearbook; China
Education News; IMF World Economic Outlook Database
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䝯䝕䜱䜰䛻
䛻䜘䛟ྲྀ䜚ୖ䛢䜙䜜䜛䚸GOOGLE 䝏䞊䝣䜶䝁䝜䝭䝇䝖䛾ゝⴥHal VarianẶ᭣䛟䚸௒ᚋ10ᖺ⤫ィኈ䛿SEXY JOB䛷䛒䜛䚹• 2010ᖺ䡚⤫ィ䛻᫂䜛䛔ேᮦ䛿⫋ሙ䛷⬮ග䜢ᾎ䜃䜛Ꮡᅾ䛻䛺䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛜㧗䛔䠛• ୍㒊䛾♫ဨ䛜䝕䞊䝍ศᯒ䜢䛩䜛ᙧ䛛䜙䚸඲♫ဨ䛜䝕䞊䝍䜢౑䛳䛯௙஦䜈䚹• Ᏻ䛥䛸㧗䛥䛿䝉䝑䝖䛷䝞䝷䞁䝇䛜Ⰻ䛔䚹㻌 Big data䛿Ᏻ䛟䚸ศᯒኈ䛾✌䛞䛿㧗㢠䚹21ୡୡ⣖⏕䛝ṧ䜚䛻ᚲせ䛺䝇䜻䝹䛸䛿Ᏻ㒊᫴୕⥲⌮䛜CSIS䛷ㅮ₇䛧䛯㝿• ᪥ᮏ䛿஧ὶᅜᐙ䛻䛺䜛䛾䛛䛸ゝ䛖Richard Armitage䛾㉁ၥ䛻䠛• Ᏻ㒊⥲⌮䛿᪥ᮏ䛿஧ὶᅜᐙ䛻䛺䜙䛺䛔䛸ྡゝ䛧䛶䛔䛯䛜…
• ኱୔ኵ䛺䛾䛰䜝䛖䛛䠛• G5/20䛾ᩍ⫱Ỉ‽䜘䜚㧗䛔Ỉ‽䛷ᇶ♏䚸ᛂ⏝ᩍ⫱䜢᪋䛧䛶䛔䛛䛺䛡䜜䜀୍ὶᅜᐙ䛸䛧䛶⤒῭ⓗ䛻௚䛾ᅜ䜢䝸䞊䝗䛧䛶⾜䛟஦䛜㞴䛧䛔䛸ᛮ䛖䛾䛿⚾䛰䛡䛷䛿↓䛔䛿䛪䛸ᛮ䛔䛯䛔䚹• ᇶ♏▱㆑䜢䝧䞊䝇䛻ᛂ⏝ຊ䚸Ⓨ᝿ຊ䛜୍␒ᚲせ䛺䝇䜻䝹䚹ᑠᏛᰯ䛛䜙኱Ꮫ䜎䛷䛾⤫ィᩍ⫱䛿௒ᚋ䛾㐺ษ䛺⫋ົ㐙⾜䜔ุ᩿䛻㔜せ䛷䛒䜛䚹• ᛂ⏝ຊ䜢䛴䛡䜛䛻䛿ᖜᗈ䛔▱㆑䛜ᚲせ䛸䛺䜛䚹Source: Youtube
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ENRICO FERMI: 䜶䞁䝸䝁㻌 䝣䜵䝹䝭㻌• 1901– 1954䚸䜲䝍䝸䜰䚸䝻䞊䝬ฟ㌟䛾≀⌮Ꮫ⪅䚹⤫ィຊᏛ䚸᰾≀⌮Ꮫ䛚䜘䜃㔞ᏊຊᏛ䛾ศ㔝䛷㢧ⴭ䛺ᴗ⦼䜢ṧ䛩䚹ᨺᑕᛶඖ⣲䛾Ⓨぢ䛷䝜䞊䝧䝹㈹䚹

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᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛᝟ሗ໬䛾⌧≧G䠑䛺䜙䛼G4+䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾ガ⠘⋽怙ⰼ⺍㮻廪䜢ぢ䜛䛸䚸᫂䜙䛛䛻᪥ᮏ䛾᝟ሗ໬㐍ᒎ䛿㐜䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹• 2004ᖺ௦䛻Steven Webb䛾ㄽ⌮ⓗ㉁ၥ䛻㛵䛩䜛ฟ∧≀䛜᪥ᮏㄒ໬䛥䜜䛯䛾䛜᪥ᮏ䛷䝣䜵䝹䝭᥎⌮䛜ᗈ䛟▱䜙䜜䛯᭱ึ䜙䛧䛔䚹• Fermi 䝁䞁䝉䝥䝖䠄᥎⌮䠅䛿⌮ᕤ⣔䛷䛿ᩍ䛘䜙䜜䛶䛔䜛䜘䛖䛰䛜䚸ከᩘ䛾௻ᴗ䛾㠃᥋䛷䜶䞁䝆䝙䜰㞠⏝䛰䛡䛻㝈䜙䛪䚸඲⯡ⓗ䛻㉁ၥ䛥䜜䜛ၥ㢟䚹Q䠄౛䠅:••••1ྎ䛾䝇䜽䞊䝹䝞䝇䛻䝂䝹䝣䝪䞊䝹䛿୍యఱಶධ䜛䛛䠛䜰䜲䝇䝩䝑䜿䞊䝸䞁䜽䛾⥲㔜㔞䛿䠛ᐩኈᒣ䜢ື䛛䛩䛾䛻䚸䛹䜜䛰䛡᫬㛫䛜䛛䛛䜛䛛䠛䚹䛹䛱䜙䜒䛱䜗䛖䛹1᫬㛫䛷⇞䛘ᑾ䛝䜛ᑟⅆ⥺䛜2ᮏ䛒䜛䚹䛣䛾ᑟⅆ⥺䛿䝮䝷䛾䛒䜛ᮦ㉁䛷䛷䛝䛶䛔䜛䛯䜑䛻⇞䛘᪉䛻㏿䛔㒊ศ䛸㐜䛔㒊ศ䛜䛒䜚䚸୍ᐃ䛾๭ྜ䛷⇞䛘㐍䜎䛺䛔䚹䛣䛾2ᮏ䛾ᑟⅆ⥺䛸1ಶ䛾䝷䜲䝍䞊䛰䛡䜢౑䛳䛶䚸ṇ☜䛻45ศ䜢ィ䜛䛻䛿䛹䛖䛩䜛䛛?

ㄽ⌮ⓗ䛻⌧ᐇឤ䛜䛺䛔⤖ᯝ䜢᥎ᐃ䛩䜛ຊ䜢⫱䛶䜛஦䛿኱ษ䚹㻌Company Confidential - For Internal Use Only
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Source: MICガ⠘态Ὲ䙤㛟㻌 H24.
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GAISE ᥎ዡ䛾⤫ィ䝋䝣䝖䜴䜵䜰䛸䛿:᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛᝟ሗ໬䛾⌧≧୺䛺⏘ᴗ㒊㛛䛾᭱⤊㟂せ䛻䜘䜛⤒῭Ἴཬຠᯝ䜢ぢ䜛䛸௜ຍ౯್䛿ㄏⓎฟ᮶䛶䛔䜛≀䛾㞠⏝ㄏⓎᩘ䛿་⒪䛾ศ㔝䜢㝖䛔䛶䜋䜌ᶓ䜀䛔䚹㧗➼ᩍ⫱⌧ሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛ICT䜢౑䛳䛯⤫ィⓗᩍ⫱䛸䛭䛾௚䛾ᩍ⫱ศ㔝䛸䜘䛟ఝ䛶䛔䜛ഴྥ䚹• 䝕䞊䝍ධຊ䜔䜲䞁䝫䞊䝖䛾⡆᫆ᛶ• 䜰䝥䝸䜿䞊䝅䝵䞁䛸䜰䝥䝸䜿䞊䝅䝵䞁䛾┦஫ᛶ• 䝕䞊䝍䛸䜾䝷䝣䛾䝎䜲䝘䝭䝑䜽䝸䞁䜽• ㄡ䛷䜒౑䛘䜛⡆᫆ᛶ• ⏕ᚐ䛜౑䛔䛯䛔᫬䛻䛩䛠౑䛘䜛⡆᫆ᛶ

JMPSE䜶䝕䜱䝅䝵䞁䛿GAISE᥎ዡ䜶䝸䜰䜢䛩䜉䛶䜹䝞䞊䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹

Source: MIC ICT䛾⤒῭ศᯒ䛻㛵䛩䜛ㄪᰝ H24.
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STATISTICAL DISCOVERY SOFTWARE JMP

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AP STAT㧗㧗ᰯᩍဨྥ䛡䛾䝽䞊䜽䝅䝵䝑䝥䛾ᐇ᪋(US䛷䛾஦౛䠅• SAS䛿䚸36 ᖺ๓䛻๰ᴗ䛧䚸඲ୡ⏺䛷⣙60,000䝃䜲䝖䛷 ᥇⏝䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹䝕䞊䝍䜲䞁䝔䜾䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁䚸ศᯒ䚸ண 䜢㏻䛨䛶ㄢ㢟ゎỴ䝋䝸䝳䞊䝅䝵䞁䜢ᥦ౪䛩䜛఍♫䚹JMP䛿䝕䝇䜽䝖䝑䝥ୖ䛷౑⏝䛷䛝䜛䚸᥈⣴ⓗ⤫ィゎᯒ䝋䝣䝖䜴䜵䜰䚹• 2012ኟ䚸SAS HQ䛷5᪥㛫 䛾䝇䜿• JMP䜰䜹䝕䝭䝑䜽䛾≉ᚩ:⤫ィ䜢ᴦ䛧䛟ୟ䛴⡆༢䛻Ꮫ⏕䜈⤂௓䛷䛝䜛䚹್ẁ䛿䝸䞊䝈䝘䝤䝹䚹 䝃䜲䝖䝷䜲䞁䝉䞁䝇䛷䜹䝞䞊䛥䜜䛶䛔䜜䜀䚸ᩍဨ䚸Ꮫ⏕䛾䝟䞊䝋䝘䝹䝁䞁䝢䝳䞊䝍䛻䜲䞁䝇䝖䞊䝹ྍ⬟䚹• Windows䚸Macඹ䛻౑䛘䜛䚹• 䜲䞁䝯䝰䝸䛷䝇䝢䞊䝕䜱䞊䛻ศᯒฎ⌮䚹SAS䛻䜒䜽䝷䜲䜰䞁䝖㐃⤖• 䝫䜲䞁䝖&䜽䝸䝑䜽䛷⡆༢᧯స• ከ䛟䛾䝡䝹䝖䜲䞁 䝸䝋䞊䝇• 䜾䝻䞊䝞䝸䝊䞊䝅䝵䞁䛷䛿ඹ㏻䛾䝒䞊䝹䝷䞊䝙䞁䜾䛜ຠᯝⓗ䚹• 䛺䛹䛺䛹䚹䚹䚹••䝆䝳䞊䝹䛷඲⡿䛾㧗ᰯ䛷ᩘᏛ䞉⤫ィ䜢ᩍ䛘䜛ᩍᖌ䛜㞟䜎䜚ᩍ⫱䛾⌧≧䜔⤫ィ䝋䝣䝖䜴䜵䜰䜢㧗ᰯᩍ⫱䛷䛹䛾ᵝ䛻౑⏝䛩䜛䛛㆟ㄽ䛥䜜䜛䚹• 䝽䞊䜽䝅䝵䝑䝥䛷䛿䚸䝋䝣䝖䜴䜵䜰䛾౑⏝᪉ἲ䚸䝔䜱䝑䝥䝇䜔䚸౛㢟䚸₇⩦䚸ၥ㢟䛾సᡂ䛺䛹䜒⾜䜟䜜䛯䚹ᕷ㈍䝋䝣䝖ᑟධ䛾䝯䝸䝑䝖:ᑗ᮶⫋ົ䛷౑䛘䜛䝋䝣䝖䜴䜵䜰䛾᧯సᛶ䜢⤫ィ䜢Ꮫ䜆䛸ྠ᫬䛻⩦ᚓ䛷䛝䚸䝇䜻䝹䛻䛷䛝䜛஦䛺䛹䚹Company Confidential - For Internal Use Only
Copyright © 2013, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

Company Confidential - For Internal Use Only
Copyright © 2013, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

Ꮫ⩦ᣦᑟせ㡿䛾ᨵゞ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᩘᏛ䠍䛻ᑡ䛧䝣䜷䞊䜹䝇䜢ᙜ䛶䛯䝕䝰• 榖䨇⨤㛟⨤亐㇅⫌堿曖墡奪䛛䛛䜙䛾ᢤ⢋• 䝕䞊䝍䛾ศᯒ• ⤫ィ䛾ᇶᮏⓗ䛺⪃䛘䜢⌮ゎ䛩䜛䛸䛸䜒䛻䠈䛭䜜䜢⏝䛔䛶䝕䞊䝍䜢ᩚ⌮䞉ศᯒ䛧ഴྥ䜢ᢕᥱ䛷䛝䜛䜘䛖䛻䛩䜛䚹• 䝕䞊䝍䛾ᩓ䜙䜀䜚• ᅄศ఩೫ᕪ䠈ศᩓཬ䜃ᶆ‽೫ᕪ䛺䛹䛾ព࿡䛻䛴䛔䛶⌮ゎ䛧䠈䛭䜜䜙䜢⏝䛔䛶䝕䞊䝍䛾ഴྥ䜢ᢕᥱ䛧䠈ㄝ᫂䛩䜛䛣䛸䚹• 䝕䝰䛾㒊ศ䛿㈨ᩱඹ᭷䛛䜙┬␎䛥䜜䛶䛔䜎䛩䚹• 䝕䞊䝍䛾┦㛵• 5ᩓᕸᅗ䜔┦㛵ಀᩘ䛾ព࿡䜢⌮ゎ䛧䠈䛭䜜䜙䜢⏝䛔䛶஧䛴䛾䝕䞊䝍䛾┦㛵䜢ᢕᥱ䛧ㄝ᫂䛩䜛䛣䛸䚹Company Confidential - For Internal Use Only
Copyright © 2013, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

Company Confidential - For Internal Use Only
Copyright © 2013, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.