If car-use has peaked in many cities, is public sentiment all downhill from here?
Martin Lee-Gosselin, Professor Emeritus, Université Laval, Québec andVisiting Professor, Imperial College London

IATSS Global Interactive Forum on Traffic and Safety (GIFTS) 2015
Tokyo, 28 November 2015___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Underlying theme of the evolution of mobility in cities and public sentiment about cars…..

…...Three tenets – a view from the North:

1. Public sentiments are an influential dimension of cultures
2. We should think in terms of ICT-Transport Cultures, not justTransport Cultures
3. ICT-Transport Cultures are vulnerable to radical shifts in public
sentiment in some circumstances
IATSS-GIFTS1 Tokyo Martin Lee-Gosselin 28 November 2015

1. Public sentiments are an influential dimension of diverse,
Regionally-Rooted Transport Cultures
Public attitudes, opinions and sentiments are all evaluations. In Northern countries, in thecase of policies targeting sustainable, safe transportation, they often add up to ambivalence,particularly if the policies are expensive.

 The link between attitudes and behaviour often takes a roundabout route. Contrary topopular beliefs, a successful policy or programme that achieves a change in a targeted
attitude does not automatically bring about a corresponding change in behaviour. Also, notethat participating in a novel behaviour can lead to a change in attitude.
 Public sentiments help encapsulate, symbolise and distinguish evolving subcultures, such as“Car-centred”, versus “Content to live without using cars” versus “(Emphatically) Anti-Car”
 Perceptions are of central importance. For example, those who wish to use cars may assume
that anyone who does not drive is “anti-car”. But with increasing numbers of younger people
who postpone getting their first licence, the sub-culture “content to live without using cars”
seems to be gaining ground and this should favour Prof. Jones’ Stage 3 solutions.
IATSS-GIFTS1 Tokyo Martin Lee-Gosselin 28 November 2015

2. Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) are rapidly
becoming pervasive to the point that we should think in terms ofICT-Transport Cultures and the role public attitudes play in them
• The growth of mobile phone users globally has been astonishing : about 5 billion
in 2015 – among a population over the age of 14 years of 5.4 billion !
• Trading off between virtual and spatial mobility: diverse modes ofcommunication, navigation, etc., have been dramatically democratised usingnear-ubiquitous mobile digital devices [laptops, tablets, phones, smart phones,etc.]. An increasingly digital world has allowed public sentiment regarding
mobility policies to build, grow and disseminate employing the tools of social
media, much as has happened in other areas of public policy.

IATSS-GIFTS1 Tokyo Martin Lee-Gosselin 28 November 2015

2. (continued) Towards thinking in terms of “ICT-Transport” Cultures andthe role public attitudes play in them
• Evidence exists for ICT-enabled shifts in the spatial and temporal organisation ofactivities and travel, including for non-work activities. In general, ICTs appear tosupport “post-modern” dynamic behaviour.
• Closely linked to the wide availability of ICTs is the trajectory of new service
models for transport (e.g. car-sharing, Uber and, ultimately, networkedautonomous vehicles) that are emerging with potential benefits for security,
safety and well-being – although not without some new types of risk.
• In sum, it makes sense to treat virtual and spatial mobility holistically as
belonging to a joint ICT-Transport Culture. To the extent that this Culture
overlaps others such as Community Energy Efficiency, Public Health or“Homeland security”, recent efforts by IATSS to take a more trans-disciplinary
approach can help keep the cultural knowledge base up-to-date.
IATSS-GIFTS1 Tokyo Martin Lee-Gosselin 28 November 2015

3. ICT-Transport Cultures are vulnerable to radical shifts in public sentiment if
travel becomes much less affordable or accessible (e.g. full cost pricing ofcarbon, infrastructure (re)investment costs, traveller security systems….etc.)• There is a serious possibility that travel will become much more difficult and/orexpensive in the coming decade. To the extent that the public become convincedthat their carbon emissions lead increasingly to intolerable global climate change,
travel could even become subject to demand restraint or allocation mechanisms.
• The most recent oil shortages (1973; 1979), relatively minor as they were, broughtmuch public scepticism about the cause of supply shortfalls Canadian research in the 1970s and 1980s revealed potential public sentiment in favour of fuel conservation large enough to drive a 10%-15%
voluntary reduction in a shortage. Beyond that, a shortage had to be convincingly real “like in World War II” to motivate any action by car-users.

• It is interesting to speculate how today’s “Content to live without using cars” and“anti-car” subcultures would coexist with the “car-centred” subculture undervoluntary demand restraint or allocation policies.
• We can ask an analogous question about how public sentiment within today’s ICTTransport culture is a help or hindrance to the implementation of Prof. Jones’ Stage
3 changes to the urban fabric, as well as “soft” policy innovations such as tradeable
individual carbon permits.
• A concluding thought about public sentiment on mobility challenges in cities: will
the North learn from the South?
IATSS-GIFTS1 Tokyo Martin Lee-Gosselin 28 November 2015