気象談話会の記録（第 501 回以降）
第 501 回Date:

Friday, 19 June 2009, 15:00-17:00

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto (International Rice Research Institute)“CO2 and heat fluxes in rice fields: Comparative assessment of flooded and non-flooded fields in thePhilippines”
This paper reports the seasonal fluxes of heat, moisture and CO2 under flooded and aerobic soil
conditions during 2008 dry season. The fluxes were correlated with the microclimate prevalent in eachlocation. This study was intended to monitor the environmental impact, in terms of carbon budget andheat exchange, of shifting from lowland rice production to aerobic rice cultivation as an alternative tomaintain crop productivity under water scarcity.
2) Ryuichi Hirata (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Carbon dioxide exchange at four grassland sites across Japan and influence of manure application on
ecosystem carbon budget”
GHGG-Japan (Green House Gases of Grassland in Japan) project has established a network of four
flux tower sites of grassland in Japan which cover from warm temperate region to cool temperate region.
Each site has two plots: one plot is managed applied chemical fertilizer and the other is managed appliedorganic manure fertilizer. Eddy covariance system has been installed at both plots in four grassland site.
In this study, we investigate the effect of manure application on carbon balance of grassland bycomparing the two different managed plots among four sites.

第 502 回Date:

23 July 2009, 15:30-17:15

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

Rebecca C. LAZA (International Rice Research Institute, JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research at
NIAES)“High nighttime temperature: a hidden stress for rice crop”
Global climate change will have profound effects on rice production and the livelihood of rice farmers.
Rising air temperature or more frequent occurrence of extreme heat or drought brought about by shifts
in weather patterns may increase crop yield losses. Minimum temperature increased about twice as
maximum temperature over global land areas since 1950 (0.204 vs. 0. 141 per decade). Earlier findings at
IRRI showed that annual mean maximum temperature increased by 0.35°C and minimum temperatureby 1.13°C and that rice grain yield declined by 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season minimum
temperature in the dry season. Using field growth chambers, preliminary field experiments wereconducted in 2006-2007 wet and dry seasons to determine the effect of high night temperature on rice
yield and the genotypic sensitivity to high night temperature. Total biomass was reduced by 5-15% in the
wet and 3-21% in the dry season.

2

Across seasons, the total number of spikelets per m was reduced byhigh night temperature. Genotypic sensitivity to high night temperature was observed, i.e. therecently-developed variety IR72 was more tolerant to warmer night temperature than the old variety IR8.
Percentage reduction in grain yield of IR8 ranged from 3-35% and that of IR72 from -4 to12 %. Fieldchamber studies with controlled temperature confirmed previous results on the effect of high nighttemperature based on correlation analysis of historical data sets. Experiments are on-going to elucidate
the yield reduction observed and to understand how physiological processes such as respiration andphotosynthesis are affected by high night temperature.

第 503 回Date:

Thursday, 20 August 2009, 15:30-17:15

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) Chunwu Zhu（JSPS Fellow, Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Effects of elevated CO2 on photosynthetic acclimation and senescence of flag leaf in wheat and rice”
Acclimation of photosynthesis under elevated CO2 has been reported frequently, but its magnitude is
species-dependent. In this paper, we study the mechanisms of photosynthetic acclimation of different
crop flag leaf at different growth stage, and the relation between photosynthetic acclimation andsenescence in wheat and rice. The senescence progress and different mechanisms of flag leaf in wheat
and rice will also be discussed.
2) Estela M. Pasuquin (International Rice Research Institute)“Responses of Rice to Elevated Temperature under Climate Change”oAtmospheric temperature is predicted to rise by 1-6 C over the next century, with adverse
consequences in rice productivity. Rice is the main source of food for half of the world's population;
therefore continuous studies are needed to understand the basis for improvement of yield under thepredicted temperature rise. This seminar will outline my proposed PhD study. This study will examine theresponses of rice to elevated temperature and other climatic factors; irradiance and relative humidity,
focusing on growth responses and accumulation and partitioning of dry matter. Some initial data will bepresented.

第 504 回Date:

Friday, 20 December 2009, 14:00-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 153, NIAES

Xiangming Xiao (Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Atmospheric and Geographic
Sciences, University of Oklahoma)“Leaf chlorophyll, light use efficiency and gross primary production of vegetation”
The terrestrial carbon cycle begins with plant photosynthesis that is composed of light absorption
process by chlorophyll and carbon fixation process. Leaf and plant canopy can be divided into leaf
chlorophyll content and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and accordingly, the fraction ofphotosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by the canopy is partitioned into the FPAR bychlorophyll (FPARchl) and FPARnpv, respectively.

In this seminar, I will introduce the satellite-based

Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) that is based on the conceptual partition of FPARcanopy into
FPARchl and FPARnpv, and discuss evaluation of the VPM model across various CO2 eddy flux tower sites
from forests to grassland and croplands (C3 and C4 plants).

I will also discuss maximum light use

efficiency of C3 and C4 plants, and the needs and challenges for mapping C3 and C4 vegetation, the key
issues in satellite-based modeling of gross primary production.

第505回
日時：2010年2月15日（月）15:00～16:30
場所： 453号室
松永壮（財団法人石油産業活性化センター）「植物起源揮発性有機ガス(BVOC)と、その周辺の大気化学」


生物起源の有機ガス（生物起源揮発性有機化合物、BVOC）の重要性と近年の研究



スギのセスキテルペン（BVOC の一つで比較的最近研究が始まった）放出

日焼け止め物質の放出とその将来展望

第 506 回
日時：2010 年 4 月 26 日（月）15:30～17:00
場所： 547 号室于

貴瑞（Yu Guirui、中国科学院地理科学及資源研究所）「中国科学院地理科学及資源研究所の研究領域とその注目している三つの地域的な環境問題」
中国科学院地理科学及資源研究所の役割と研究領域を総括するうえで、特に当 研究所が注目している三つの地域的な環境問題である、華北平原の食料生産と 水資源、南方赤色土壌山地の総合利用と森林生態、チッベト高原の生態系と気 候変動について紹介し、共同研究の議題とアプローチについて意見交換を行いたい。

第 507 回
日時：2010 年 10 月 7 日（木） 10:00～12:00
場所：547 会議室
1) 徐炯鎬（Seo, Hyeong-Ho、農村振興庁温暖化対応農業研究センター）“Strategy for Addressing Climate Change Agricultural Sector in the Korea”
The Korea National Institute of Meteorological Research reported that the mean temperature in Korea
peninsula had risen by 1.5 °C during the past 100 years, exceeding the global warming trend announced
by IPCC. If this trend would continue, the agriculture of Korea will be affected by climate change fasterthan those of other regions. A total of 62 climate change-related cases affecting the agriculture area had
been observed. These impacts are categorized as follows: 1) moving north of cultivation sites; 2) increaseof disease, insect, and weeds duo to the change of wintering environment; 3) degradation of quality andproduction due to reduced breeding time and early fruiting; and 4) reduction in milk and disease
incidence. The agriculture sector should develop adaptive measures to minimize the impact of climatechange and should formulate strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases (N2O, CH4), realizing a low carbon
green agriculture. The Rural Development Administration (RDA) of Korea plans to transform its
agriculture R&D system focusing on addressing climate change and developing advanced agricultural
technologies. Our basic direction is: 1) to support Korean greenhouse gas reduction initiatives throughdevelopment and extension of low-carbon agricultural technologies; 2) to intensify studies to counter
global warming in area such as new varieties, alternative crops, and energy-saving agricultural
technologies; 3) to prevent damaged caused by disease and insect pest, and calamities, and thedegradation of quality and production. To fully utilize technological opportunities, RDA plans to develop
and disseminate low carbon agricultural technologies, research on new and renewable energy andbioenergy, develop new varieties adaptable to global warming conditions in the Korean peninsula, andexplore alternative tropical crops such as mango and papaya. To minimize potential bad effects and risks,
we will recalculate the suitable farming area, develop technologies to prevent or control disease, insect
pest, and weeds and to mitigate disasters, and improve facilities for livestock rearing. Korea will beobliged to reduce greenhouse gas emission from 2013. If we can develop and apply low gas-producing
agricultural technologies and carbon sink, we will be able to reduce greenhouse gases from agricultural
sector by 0.6% annually until 2020, and minimize the bad effects of climate change.
2) 權英淳（Kwon, Youngsoon、農村振興庁温暖化対応農業研究センター）“Research Projects of Agricultural Research Center for Climate Change”
1) Prediction of dormancy release and cold hardiness in fruit trees using phenology model
2) Evaluation of agroclimatic zone in major crops Using Digital Climate Modeling3) Estimation of cultivation limit zone of tropical crops by climate change scenario
4) Development of agricultural drought index using precipitation and evapotranspiration
5) Establishment of crop-Weather relationship experimental fields for evaluation influence of climatechange on crops in Jeju island, Korea
6) CO2 sink assessments for long-term monitoring in a mandarin orchard in Jeju, Korea

第 508 回
日時： 2010 年 11 月 2 日（火）15:30～16:30
場所： 153 会議室
Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto (International Rice Research Institute)“Evapotranspiration and energy exchange in flooded and aerobic rice fields in the Philippines”
The seasonal and annual variability of surface energy components, evapotranspiration, crop
coefficient, and crop water productivity were investigated under two different rice environments:
flooded and aerobic soil conditions, using the eddy covariance technique during 2008-2009 cropping
periods. This study was intended to monitor the environmental impact, in terms of evapotranspirationand energy exchange, of shifting from lowland rice production to aerobic rice cultivation as analternative to maintain crop productivity under water scarcity. Average of four cropping seasons, theavailable energy (Rn-G) was partitioned to 82.5 ± 3.3% latent heat flux (LE) and 11.6 ± 2.2% sensible heat
flux (H) for the flooded rice field while it was 76.6 ± 1.1% latent heat flux (LE) and 18.3 ± 0.7% sensible
heat flux (H) for the aerobic field. The aerobic rice fields had 53% more sensible heat flux while flooded
rice fields had 11% more latent heat flux. Consequently, the aerobic rice fields had higher Bowen ratio(0.22 ±0.02) than flooded fields (0.14 ± 0.04), indicating that a larger proportion of the available energy
was used for sensible heat transfer or for warming the surrounding air. The aerobic rice field had lower-1

average growing season evapotranspiration (ET) rates (3.68 ± 0.26 mm d ) than the flooded field (4.12 ±-1

0.20 mm d ). The ET rates in aerobic rice fields were influenced more by net radiation and bulk surface
conductance (Gs) while the flooded rice fields were primarily controlled by net radiation. The crop
coefficient Kc (=ET/ ETo and ETo is the reference ET) of aerobic fields (0.97 ± 0.04) was lower than that offlooded rice fields (1.09 ±0.07). However the crop water productivity (WPET), defined as the grain yield-1

per unit of water evapotranspired, of aerobic rice (0.40-0.48 g grain kg water) was lower than that of

-1

flooded rice (0.93-1.54 g grain kg water). Even if the average growing season evapotranspiration rate of
the aerobic rice fields was about 10% lower than that of the flooded fields, but the yield of the aerobic
rice was much lower than that of the flooded rice, so, the WPET of aerobic fields was about 60% lower
than that of the flooded rice fields. The concept of aerobic rice holds promise as a water-saving
technology in the tropics if water productivity could be enhanced through the development of aerobic
rice varieties that can achieve high yields per unit evapotranspiration. Likewise, to reduce sensible heattransfer that brings warmer aerobic rice environment, the amount and timing of irrigation input should
also be optimized so as to prevent extreme dry soil conditions. The results of this investigation showedsignificant differences in energy budget between flooded and aerobic rice ecosystems. This information
should also be taken into consideration in evaluating alternative water-saving technologies forenvironmentally sustainable rice production systems.

第 509 回
日時： 2010 年 11 月 5 日（金）10:00～12:00
場所： 547 会議室
1) Daniel EPRON (ナンシー大学、INRA Champenoux 森林生理生態学研究室)“Soil respiration and soil carbon allocation in Congo”
A better understanding of genetic and environmental control on carbon allocation is required for
accurately predicted tree yield, especially in marginal area where plantations are thought to extent. In
Congo, the wood production was twice higher in the most productive clone compared to the lessproductive one. This was due to a higher aboveground net primary productivity (NPP), the surplus being
allocated to wood production. In addition, an increase in leaf lifespan reduced the amount of carbon
allocated to leaf production. Similar conclusions can be drawn when comparing K+ fertilised and control
stand in Brazil where most of the surplus of aboveground NPP in fertilised plots was allocated to wood
production and where leaf lifespan was also increased. Soil respiration increased with increasing NPP
reflecting that more carbon is allocated belowground.
2) 壇浦正子(京都大学大学院農学研究科)“Carbon allocation belowground in Pinus Pinaster using stable carbon isotope pulse labelingtechnique”
アフリカコンゴをはじめとする生態系での同位体研究(13CO2 ラベリング）を使った研究の紹介をしていただきます。具体的には同位体ラベリングを植物に行い土壌を含めた生態系の物質の流れを明らかにします。

第 510 回
日時：2011 年 5 月 26 日（木）15：00～17：00
場所：153 会議室
和田龍一（帝京科学大学）、児玉直美（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「中赤外半導体レーザー(QCL)の植物生理学への応用：実験のセットアップと測定精度について」「遺伝子組み換えユーカリを用いた、気孔と葉内の CO2 拡散抵抗の短期環境応答性の検証」
植物の葉での光合成の過程における大気から二酸化炭素の固定が起こる場所までの拡散の過程は植物の生産性や植生地の炭素循環に おける重要な律速要因である。従来までは、植物の葉と大気間の拡散を制限する気孔が重要な要因であるとされ、気孔の開閉の環境応答について様々な知見が提案されてきた。1980 年代から 90 年代にかけて葉の内部の拡散抵抗すなわち気孔から
CO2 の固定が起きている葉緑体までの拡散が、従来考えられたものよりも大きいという知見が蓄積され、その重要性が提唱されている。葉の内部の CO2 拡散抵抗は主に従来までに 3 つの方法で推定されてきたが、安定同位体の手法が信頼性が高いことが証明されている。
従来の手法では IRMS（安定同位体質量分析計）を用いて CO2 の安定同位体を測定し、葉の内部の拡散抵抗を推定ことが一般的であった。しかしながらこの手法では前処理によるコンタミネー
ションの可能性や、分析のために大量のサンプルが必要であり、また分析に時間がかかることから高い時間分解能での測定が不可能であった。葉の内部の CO2 拡散はアクアポリンという膜たんぱく質などを介して環境にすばやく反応すると予測されており、これを実証するためには、高時間分解能での連続的な測定が必要である。現在までに、分光学的手法を用いることによって CO2などの安定同位体比を高精度・高時間分解能で測定をすることが検証されてきた。
そこで本研究では、中赤外 CO2 分光法を用い（Quantum cascade laser, Aerodyne Research Inc.）、
CO2 の安定同位体を高精度（0.1‰以下）で秒単位で測定をすることによって、葉の内部の CO2
拡散抵抗を連続的に測定する手法を開発した。また植物の葉に出入りする水蒸気を異なるレーザー（Losgatos Research Inc.）を適用し CO2 と水蒸気の安定同位体比の測定を同時に行った。この方法によって葉の中の水分の経路の変化を同時にモニタリングが可能なシステムをセットアッ
プした。このシステムをアクアポリンの発現量を遺伝的に改良したユーカリに適用して、アクア
ポリンの CO2 拡散に対する貢献度について検証をしたいと考えている。本セミナーでは、まず測定システムの概要と、測定における精度について説明し、取得したデータについて議論を行う予定である。

第 511 回
日時：2011 年 6 月 30 日（金）15：00～17：00
場所：547 会議室
1) 杜明遠（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「私の大気乱流拡散の観測とシミュレーション研究」
防風網による風への影響の観測研究から、防風網による風速、温度、蒸発散、花粉の拡散への影
響など、今までの大気乱流拡散についての観測と 数値シミュレーション研究をまとめて紹介する。特に、現在進行中の東京電力福島第一原子力発電所の放射能物質の拡散シミュレーションの初期結果を 披露する。
2) 西森基貴（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「文部科学省気候変動適応研究推進プログラム高知県課題の目指すもの」
昨年１０月より開始された標記課題の目標，概要および現在までの進捗状況について概説するとともに，当プログラム内外での気候変動適応研究の在り方，および震災をうけた，それら研究の状況変化などについても議論したい。

第 512 回
日時：2011 年 7 月 28 日（金）15：00～17：00

場所：547 会議室
1) 金元植（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「FluxPro: 次世代水・二酸化炭素フラックスの観測と予報を向けて」
農業生産に関わるある環境変数を、監視から予報まで素早く処理することは、作物生育の精緻な管理や極端現象の素早い対応に極めて重要である。そこで、H2O や CO2 の動きを詳細に把握して、作物の生育や水環境を管理することに役に立つ「FluxPro」の開発を行った。現在、ある特定場所での生育監視には対応できているが、栽培管理に必要な予報情報や広域評価のための空間
情報の発信には未だ至っていない。そこで、今回の発表では、今までの開発過程から明らかになった研究結果や今後の研究方向と課題に付いて発表させて頂く。
2) 眞崎 良光（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「水文モデルを用いた作物栽培のための水資源量の解析に向けて」
食料生産変動 RP では、気候・水文環境の変動に伴なう主要作物の生産変動に関する研究に取り組んでおり、その課題の一つとして、作物栽培に利用できる水資源量の解析モデルの高精度化に取り組んでいる。ケーススタディとしてオーストラリアの作物栽培に関する水事情を取り上げ、
水文モデルを利用した解析の方向性について報告する。

第 513 回
日時：2011 年 8 月 5 日（金）15：00～16:30
場所：547 会議室
近藤純正（東北大学名誉教授）「地球温暖化と都市昇温問題」
近世数百年間は、干ばつ・洪水・冷夏による凶作・飢饉で人々は苦しめられてきた。江戸 300
年間の平和な時代、教育と治水と潅漑などの国づくりにより大規模な干ばつと洪水は時代と共に克服された。こうして先進国となった今日、こんどは人為的な原因により気候が大きく変わりはじめた。都市では地球温暖化と異なる原因により、地球温暖化量を上回る大きさの気温上昇（熱汚染）がある。地球温暖化と都市の熱汚染が重なり、熱中症による死者が増加する傾向にある。
観測法の時代による変更、そのほか「日だまり効果」などの補正を行い日本のバックグラウンド
温暖化量を求めると、この 127 年間の昇温率は 100 年間当たり 0.67℃であり、4 回の気温ジャン
プをともなっている。気温と太陽黒点数の間には高い相関関係があり、また気候と海洋変動（漁獲量変動）は密接に関係している。バックグラウンド温暖化量を基準として求めた 91 都市の都市化による気温上昇（熱汚染）は、風速が弱いほど、また都市化率が大きいほど大きい。特に最低気温が下がり難くなった。その主な要因は、都市構造物の熱パラメータ（熱容量と熱伝導率の積）が大きくなったことであり、ほかに緑地の減少、人工熱の増加、ビルの高層化などがある。
大気混濁係数は大戦中・直後の極小から 1960 年代に極大となり、その後若干下がる傾向にある。
都市では熱汚染の増加と水蒸気供給源の減少により相対湿度が低下し、その結果として霧日数が少なくなった。また粗度の増加により平均風速は弱くなったが、最大瞬間風速の減少はわずかである。熱中症対策の指標となる半湿りの黒球温度、人体の蒸発効率（植物の気孔と人体の汗腺の類似性）、緑のカーテンの効果、都市昇温の緩和策などについて熱収支的観点から議論する。
今後、エネルギー消費が増えると熱汚染が地球規模に広がることになる（第 2 の地球温暖化問題）。
エネルギー消費を抑えた社会を目指したい。

第 514 回
日時：2011 年 9 月 28 日（水）13:15～14:30
場所：453 会議室
Laza, Ma. Rebecca （International Rice Research Institute)“Addressing Climate Change Challenges to Food Security”
Climate change is forecast to reduce rice production if no steps are taken to adapt rice to it. In thisseminar, IRRI’s approach to help rice production in the face of climate change will be presented. Briefly,
research is undertaken to investigate genes for stress tolerance and to develop improved rice varietiesthat can cope better with the conditions predicted to occur such as too little or too much water andrising temperatures and to improve crop management to develop varieties that can better cope withenvironmental stresses, and then share knowledge and breeding materials with many partners in
rice-growing countries.

第 515 回
日時：2011 年 9 月 29 日（木）13：15～15：15
場所：153 会議室
1) 飯泉仁之直（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）“Approaches to the Representation of Crop Growth Heterogeneities in Coarse-resolution Land Surface
Models”
The energy and material exchanges between the atmosphere and cropland are significantly different
from those for areas of natural vegetation and are strongly affected by crop phenology and productivity.
For land surface models embedded in global climate models (GCMs), an accurate representation of crop
phenology and productivity is important for the realistic simulation of these exchanges. At a GCM-gridscale (hundreds of kilometers in latitude and longitude), crop growth can vary widely depending on local
climate and management conditions. However, few studies have considered the crop growthheterogeneities in a GCM grid box. This study proposes two approaches to reflect the consequences ofcrop growth heterogeneities on these exchanges in a GCM. Accordingly, this study offers a combinationof land surface models coupled with the crop-growth components of dynamic global vegetation models(agro-DGVMs) or large-area crop models: the stochastic parameter-based ensemble approach, which
relies on the Bayesian Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) algorithm, and the mosaic-like ensemble approach,which relies on the downhill simplex algorithm. The feasibilities of the two approaches are examined,
and the combination of the crop growth component of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
applied to maize in the Central Great Plains of the United States and the coarse-resolution reanalysis
data is used as an example. The results demonstrate that the two approaches captured the major
characteristics of the given spatial variation of the crop phenology and yield for the fine grids locatedwithin a coarse grid box; this finding suggests that the two approaches are applicable to the capture ofcrop growth heterogeneities in a GCM grid box. The computational costs required for the two
approaches in this study were nearly comparable, but the computation time for the mosaic-likeensemble approach relying on the simplex algorithm could be substantially shortened in comparison tothe other approach if a number of computer resources were available. The approaches proposed in thisstudy are expected to improve the representation of atmosphere-cropland interactions in a GCM gridbox simulated in land surface models with due consideration of crop growth heterogeneities.
2) 櫻井玄（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「過去における CO2 施肥効果の推定」
大気中の二酸化炭素 (CO2)の濃度の増加に伴い、CO2 の植物に対する施肥効果によって、作物生産性がどの程度増加するのかという問題は、将来の作物生産性を評価する上で極めて重要である。しかしながら、過去数十年間においても CO2 濃度は大きく増加しているが、過去におけるCO2 の施肥効果を明確に算定した研究はない。本研究では、ダイズを対象として、過去におけるCO2 の施肥効果の量を推定するために (1) ダウンレギュレーションの補正効果を加味したセミ
プロセスモデルを開発し、(2)FACE 実験の結果をもとに階層ベイズ法を用いて補正効果のパラメータをモデル選択し、(3) そのモデルを、アメリカ・ブラジル・中国の収量データを用いてデータ同化することによて、過去の CO2 施肥効果を推定した。(4) また、データ同化されたモデルを用いて将来予測も行った。(5) さらに、将来予測におけるダウンレギュレーションの効果も評価した。その結果、過去においては、収量増加に及ぼす要因は気温上昇よりも CO2 濃度上昇の寄与が大きかった。また、特に低緯度ほど CO2 施肥効果が大きかった。技術の進歩による寄与は、国によって異なり、アメリカ、中国で大きかったが、ブラジルでは小さく、CO2 の施肥効果とあまり差がない程度であった。気候シナリオによる将来推計では、アメリカでは収量は微減するが、中国、ブラジルでは増加することが予測された。興味深いことに、将来予測では、気温の効果との交互作用の結果、ダウンレギュレーションの効果は相殺されていた。

第 516 回
日時：2011 年 10 月 27 日（木）13：15～15：15
場所：153 会議室
1) 横沢正幸（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「ティッピングポイントとその早期検出シグナル」
最近，nature や nature climate change 誌などで見かける複雑系の臨界現象のティッピングポイン
トを事前に検出する方法についてレビューし，農業環境分野での応用可能性を考える．
2) 福井眞（農業環境技術研究所

大気環境研究領域）「日本全国を対象とした温暖化のコメ生産への影響」「生物多様性の創出・維持機構の数理解析」
今回の発表では、発表者が従事している環境省の環境研究総合推進費（S-8)「温暖化影響評価・適応政策に関する総合的研究」の担当研究の進捗と展望についてと、以前の研究の一つを紹介します。(1) 日本におけるコメ収量が将来予想されうる気候変化によって受ける影響を評価すべく、
メッシュデータを用い、高解像度で地域ごとにプロセスベースモデルによってコメの収量予測を行った。さらに適応策として現行作付け品種以外の収量ポテンシャル、あるいは現行移植日からの変更による影響の評価を行うため、各品種、各移植日での収量予測を行った。(2) ここ最近、
生物多様性という言葉が世に広まり、その重要性が認識されつつある。生物多様性は 3 階層（遺伝的多様性、種多様性、生態系多様性）に渡る多様性を意味するものであるが、ここでは種多様性に注目する。いかにして自然界の生態系は多様な生物種の共存を許しているのだろうか。本発
表では、ある生態系における植物の共存を説明する仮説の一つとして植物ー土壌ー微生物フィードバックについて説明し、さらにこの仮説から生態系の食物連鎖の上位生物が下位食物連鎖構造に多様性をもたらしうることを紹介する。

第 517 回Date:

Thursday, 8 December 2011, 15:00-17:00

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

1) TOKIDA Takeshi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Rice growth and methane emission responses to free-air CO2 enrichment and soil/water warming”
Climate change will affect not only rice production but also various processes occurring in theatmosphere-plant-soil continuum. Among others, I have been working on CH4-emission response toelevated [CO2] and soil temperature in Shizukuishi (2007-2008) and Tsukubamirai (2010-) rice FACE
projects. In this seminar, I will present observational evidence showing that elevated CO2 and soil
warming substantially increase CH4 emission from rice paddies, a process of strong positive feedback ofglobal warming. I will also give some mechanistic explanations behind that observation and highlight theimportance plant (rice) response, in addition to edaphic factors, in order to correctly predict future CH4
emission and to develop countermeasures for the potential mitigation. countermeasures for the
potential mitigation.
2) ZHU Chun-wu (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Rice genotypic differences in response to CO2 and soil/water warming”
The enhancement of atmospheric [CO2] concentrations has direct impacts on rice by increasing thenet photosynthesis of leaf, thus promoting growth and yield. Recent rice FACE studies have shown that
there are significant differences in growth and yield responses to elevated [CO2] among genotypes in
China and Japan FACE, which will be an important source of adaptation technology development. We areinteresting in comparing the Japanese and Chinese varieties response to elevated CO2. In 2009, my work
was to test four Chinese varieties responses at Japan with climate chamber, and then chose two varieties
with strong response as the tested material, with Koshihikari for Japan new FACE in 2010. In the seminar,
I will present the growth, photosynthetic system and yield response to elevated CO2 of the tested
varieties in climatic chamber and FACE, and confirm whether the hybrid rice have the common
phenomena with the high CO2-response, and test whether the varieties with the strong response to FACE
in China have similar response to FACE in Japan. In addition, I also warn that in future, we should beware
the increased risk of lodging of cultivars with strong response, which may consequently lead to reduction
in rice yield.

第 518 回Date:

Thursday, 26 January, 2012, 15:00-17:00

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) YOSHIMOTO Mayumi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)

“Evaluation of heat stress risk of rice in Japan by panicle temperature model (IM2PACT) andMeteoCrop DB”
Projected global warming is expected to increase the occurrence of heat-induced spikelet sterility(HISS) of rice. Previous chamber experiments have shown that HISS can occur where temperature atflowering time exceeds the threshold temperature of around 35°C. However, it is difficult to predict
because the thermal conditions of rice canopy can be different from the air temperature under field
condition. To cope with this, we developed a simple micrometeorology model focusing canopy andpanicle temperature (IM2PACT), which was incorporated into the general meteorology database,MeteoCrop DB. Using this, we evaluated the potential risk of heat stress caused by meteorologicalfactors in Japan, and attempted to simulate the future risk by applying the climate change data based ona several GCMs and the A1B scenario.
2) SAKAI Hidemitsu (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Could rice breeding for the past 100 years in Japan improve responses to increasing atmospheric
CO2?”
It's been more than 100 years since systematic cross breeding began in Japan. Rice yield greatly
increased by this cross breeding so far. At the same time, atmospheric CO2 also increased by about 80
ppm during this period. It is unclear whether varieties with high sensitivity to increasing CO2 had been
selected. To evaluate the effects of past breeding on rice sensitivity to elevated CO2, growth and yield
responses to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) were determined for five rice varieties released in 1882,
1934, 1956, 1976 and 2009. Here I report some results of this experiment.

第 519 回Date:

Thursday, 16 February 2012, 13:30-14:30

Venue:

Room No. 153, NIAESJUNG Yoo-Rim (Pukyong National University, Korea)“Research Report in NIAES”
Miss Jung is a PhD student of Integrated Climate System Modeling Lab., Department of Environmental& Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyoung National University. She has been staying at NIAES since early January
as one of the participants for the 19th Winter Institute Program and studying with Dr. Kuwagata theseseveral weeks. Before her return to Korea, we asked her to have a seminar on her study.

第 520 回Date:

Thursday, 1 March, 2012, 15:00-17:00

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) USUI Yasuhiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Effects of soil/water warming on growth, yield and the appearance quality of rice grains and theirvariation among cultivars and years”
The rise in the global average air temperature at the end of the 21st Century compared to the meanvalue from 1980 to 1999 will be around 1.8-4.0 °C, with a likely range of 1.1-6.4 °C (IPCC, 2007). It isanticipated that the rising of air temperature affects the crop production. As well as air temperaturerising, it might well be the increasing of soil and water temperature in the ponded paddy field in the
future. In this seminar, I will introduce the growth, yield and appearance quality responses of rice grains
and their variation among cultivars and years at the open system elevated soil-water temperature (2 °C)
plot in NIAES field.
2) HASEGAWA Toshihiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Grain growth models for a climate change study”
Grain growth is sensitive to temperature change and excessive temperatures often result in poor grain
growth.

Crop models should be capable of reproducing this temperature dependence, but sensitivityof existing approaches to temperature is not evident. In this seminar, I will try to develop a grain growthmodel scheme based on the discussion among participants, and 'hopefully' show some examples of theanalyses.

第 521 回Date:

Thursday, 7 June, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) KUWAGATA Tsuneo (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Influence of low air-humidity and low root-temperature on water use, growth and aquaporin
expressions in rice plants”
The effects of low air-humidity and low root-temperature (LRT) on water use, growth and aquaporin
gene expressions were investigated in rice plants. The daily transpiration of the plants grown at
low-humidity was 1.5 to 2 times higher than that at high-humidity. LRT at 13 C reduced transpiration,and the extent was larger at lower humidity. LRT also reduced total dry matter production and leaf area
expansion, and the extent was larger at lower humidity. These results suggest that the suppression ofplant growth by LRT is associated with water stress due to decreased water uptake ability of root. On theother hand, net assimilation rate was not affected by low-humidity and LRT, and water use efficiency waslarger for LRT. We found that low-humidity and LRT induced coordinated up-regulation of many PIP and
TIP aquaporin genes in both the leaves and the roots. Expression levels of several root-specificaquaporins, including OsPIP2;4 and OsPIP2;5, were increased significantly after 6 and 13 days of LRT
exposure. Taken together, we discuss the possibility that aquaporins are part of an integrated responseof rice plants to low air-humidity and LRT.
2) ONO Keisuke (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Canopy-scale relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis in irrigated rice”
Both canopy- and leaf-scale analyses are needed to better understand crop response to environmentchanges. Bulk stomatal conductance, which represents stomatal behavior at canopy scales, isindependent from the LAI development and thus potentially more suitable for diagnosing the plantstatus than surface conductance in the conventional big-leaf approach. We investigated the relationshipbetween bulk stomatal conductance and gross primary productivity on diurnal to seasonal time scales
using eddy flux measurements at the Mase AsiaFlux site, and found that the relationship was generally
explained by the Ball-Berry-Leuning mode at the different time scales but highly dependent on thesurface condition such as wetness.

第 522 回Date:

Thursday, 28 June, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) ISHIGOOKA Yasushi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Spatial and temporal characterization of climatic change impact on rice production and quality inJapan”
Large-scale simulation study has been conducted to assess the potential impact on rice production
and quality under the observed and projected climatic conditions. A process-based rice development
model, which is applicable for multi-cultivars, was introduced and applied for all paddy area in Japan
using mesh meteorological data having 2nd spatial resolution (10km x 10km approximately) from 1981
to 2000 derived from multi-GCMs. In this seminar, I will introduce some results of model implementationsuch as changes in growing period and potential yield with several agro-climatic indices which can
influence yield and quality as the risk factor, and discuss the adaptation strategies for reducing impact ofclimate change on rice production and quality.
2) MANO Masayoshi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“An idea to separate eddy covariance NEE into GPP and RE using only daytime data”
Eddy covariance is the direct way to measure net exchange of CO2 (NEE), and it has several advantages(i.e., quasi-continuous and area-averaged flux measurements). However, it has disadvantages too. For
instance, CO2 uptake by photosynthesis (gross primary production - GPP) is inferred using ecosystem
respiration (RE) from nighttime measurements assuming the same temperature dependence of RE
between day and nighttime. Since it is unclear whether this assumption is valid or not, it is desirable toseparate NEE into GPP and RE using only daytime data. Here, I'd like to present an idea of separation
method of NEE using only daytime data: the method of thinking is that the difference between NEEs atthe same PAR level (i.e., equal to the same GPP) is caused by the RE difference if the temperature level isdifferent. In the presentation, I will report a preliminary result of the Mase flux site data, and hope for
productive discussion together.

第 523 回Date:

Thursday, 26 July, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) KIM Wonsik (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Analysis of random error on eddy covariance measurement for FluxPro as a realtime data assimilation
system”
It is known from the theory, that the data assimilation DA system is optimal in case that 1) the model
perfectly matches the real system, 2) both the process and the observation noises are white, and 3)
those covariances are absolutely known. The effort to estimate the characteristics of error of DA system
is deserved even though it is impassible to construct the ideal DA system in real world. Especially, theunderstanding of the characteristics of random error on eddy covariance EC system is valuable for not
only the DA system construction but also EC uncertainty analysis itself before the equipping DA schemein FluxPro as a realtime data assimilation system. In the context, the error analysis of EC system havebeen investigated above all. As a result, we estimated the relative error E which is the value come fromthe standard deviation of 1 hr-covariance divided by the absolute covariance between vertical windvelocity and target scalar collected over various types of land cover and at different instrumental heights.
We also investigated E characteristics according to a spatiotemporal scale and the flux averaging interval.
As a result, we suggest that if E is estimated near the ideal EC measurement condition satisfying
stationarity, it is stable and uniform value regardless of the land cover, spatiotemporal scale, and kind offlux. Based on the constancy of E, we determined the baseline, that is a white noise of EC measurement,
as a function of the averaging interval.
2) TAKIMOTO Takahiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Study on soil temperature and moisture model”
The climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region are
ongoing under the research framework of the GReen Network of Excellence (GRENE). One of the aims ofour team is to prepare soil temperature and moisture data as information platform to design adaptationand mitigation strategies of major crops against the predicted climatic changes. In this seminar, I will
introduce the brief overview of soil temperature and moisture model, and discus some results.

第 524 回Date:

Thursday, 30 August, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) YOSHIDA Ryuhei (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Effects of land-use changes on warming rates and rice yield in Shikoku, West Japan”
This study evaluated the impacts of historical land-use changes (LUCs) during the last two decades(1987-2006) on the warming rates and rice yields in Shikoku, Japan. Two types of numerical simulations,
historical LUCs and fixed LUCs throughout the period, were performed by using the non-hydrostatic
regional atmospheric model (JMA-NHM) and large-area rice growth model (PRYSBI). In Shikoku, marked
decrease in paddy fields and increase in building lots and roads have been observed since 1987. The
evaluation suggests that LUCs caused five times larger warming rates in and around paddy fields than-1

those in and around other land uses. Also 0.27 % decrease in rice yields in 2006 (12 kg ha ), relative to
1987, occurred as a result of the change in thermal conditions in and around paddy fields. These results
demonstrate that there were small but detectable LUCs-induced impacts on the surface climates,
warming rates, and rice yields in Shikoku.
2) MIYATA Akira (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“GHGG-Japan from 2004 to 2011 with recent trends in FLUXNET”
Because of growth of scientific interests within flux communities along with technical progress inin-situ analysis of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, FLUXNET, the global research network of flux monitoring
towers for carbon, water, and energy cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, is expanding its study target to
non-CO2 greenhouse gases, although CO2 and water still remain as the main target. FLUXNET, inconjunction with InGOS (Integrated Non-CO2 Greenhouse gas Observation System), will hold the meetingon N2O and CH4 fluxes in early September. In this seminar, I will make preliminary presentation to the
FLUXNET meeting about GHGG-Japan, the domestic project started in 2004 for full accounting of
geenhouse gas budget in grasslands in Japan and influcence of manure application on the fluxes.

第 525 回Date:

Thursday, 4 October, 2012, 13:30-14:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAESCharles P. Chen (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Crop responses to tropospheric ozone: mechanisms of damage and tolerance in Glycine max. andOryza sativa”
The global background concentration of tropospheric ozone has been rising since the Industrial
Revolution, and is widely recognized as a problem affecting crop growth and yields. However, themechanisms of damage and tolerance in plants are complex and still relatively unclear. The leaf-level
response of soybean to acute and chronic ozone was characterized using simultaneous measurements ofchlorophyll fluorescence imaging and gas exchange. The results showed that both acute and chronicozone exposure induces spatially heterogeneous damage across the soybean leaf, but the underlying
physiological mechanisms of damage differ. In addition, recent QTL analyses of ozone sensitivity andtolerance in rice have identified several loci which are associated with increased ozone tolerance. I will
share results concerning one QTL, OzT8, which has been found to be associated with relative
maintenance of photosynthetic capacity under ozone stress, and could potentially be used to breed
future rice lines with greater tolerance to ozone exposure.

第 526 回Date:

Thursday, 25 October, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) KODAMA Naomi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)
2) YONEMURA Seiichiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)

第 527 回Date:

Thursday, 29 November, 2012, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) DU Mingyuan (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Importance of long-term monitoring of bio-meteorological elements on high mountain area on the
Tibetan Plateau”
We have set two long-term monitoring trans- section along two mountain slopes on the Tibetan Plateau:
1200m difference in altitude from 3200m to 4400 and form 4300m to 5500m since 2005. Air
temperature (1.5 m above ground), precipitation and soil temperature and soil water content (5cm, 20

cm and 50cm in soil) were recorded at 30-min interval. Some results will show and the importance of
this monitoring will be stressed considering global warming, vegetation distribution and species
diversity.
2) FUKUOKA Minehiko (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“What should we do before naming a research product?”
We sometimes have an opportunity to name a research product, such as a device, model, or database.
It is typically raised just before submitting the manuscript of a paper concerning the product. To confirm
the uniqueness of the product name, you will 'Google' a possible name of the product. However,
Googling is not sufficient because it does not look into Japanese Trademark Database. Unlike researchers
working for profit-making companies, we, working for a non-commercial institute, scarcely care forsecuring trademark rights. However, in the case of non-patentable products, trademarks will be the mosteffective way to legitimately control the transfer of your technology to the industrial sector. The speaker
will explain why we should make a search over the Japanese Trademark Database of Industrial Property
Digital Library before submitting your manuscript, to make sure that a possible name of the product canbe registered as a trademark.

第 528 回Date:

Thursday, 10 January, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

1) OKADA Masashi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large
scale”
Agriculture utilizes regional water resources as well as local resources such as temperature, rainfall, solar
energy. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies
accounting for dynamical interactions between water resources and crop production. This study
proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at alarge scale. The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land
surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. I will
introduce the model description, and then discuss mainly about the reproducibility of crop yield andwater balance at the Songhua river watershed in Northeast China, which has extensive crop land in China
including semi-arid climatic areas.
2) NISHIMORI Motoki (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Downscaling of climate change projection and its application for promoting local agriculture andwater use”
This research project integrally implements dynamical and statistical downscalings and developmentsof simulation technologies for climate change adaptations (CCA). They are essential for planning strategic
estimations and policies for climate change of Kochi Prefecture that is located in the western part ofJapan and has complicated topography and various land use. In Kochi Pref., we have serious
vulnerabilities to typhoon and heavy rain, and their economic structures strongly depend on the primaryindustries. We apply the SD methods, first, to obtain detailed climate change scenarios on the river andcoastal basins and we also develop the method for stochastic rainfall level. Secondly, we use the climatechange scenarios to adaptive simulation technologies for agriculture and water resources/environments,and finally we present local countermeasure options to climate change impact assessments, adaptive
strategy, and environmental policy scenarios in Kochi.

第 529 回Date:

Thursday, 31 January, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) SAKURAI Gen (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Bayesian calibration of the crop model using global crop yield data”
With a growing global population and a changing climate, the need to examine the relationship between
weather and crop production in global scale is increasingly important. Previous statistical analyses ofhistorical global data on past crop yields and climate conditions have revealed the relationship between
weather and crop yield in global scale. However, for simple statistical model, it is difficult to include
complex interaction among climate factors or to consider non-linear responses to daily changes ofweather condition. On the other hand, it is also difficult to apply process based models of crop growth toglobal scale prediction of crop production because of the lack of the knowledge about parameter values
for each special grid. Here, we propose a synthesis approach in which the key parameters of a process
based crop model are statistically estimated by Bayesian statistics using global crop yield data set. Thisapproach should compensate the weak points of both simple statistic approach and theprocess-based-model approach and enable us to predict the future global crop productivity

more

precisely.
2) YOKOZAWA Masayuki (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Parameter

optimizationinnetwork

dynamics

includingunmeasured

variablesbythesymbolic-numeric approach”
The investigation of network dynamics is a major issue in various studies including systems biology,
climate system, plant community and so on. One of the essential steps in a dynamics investigation is theparameter estimation in the model that expresses underline phenomena. Recently, a new approach has
been proposed for parameter optimization by using differential elimination, to estimate kinetic
parameter values of differential eauation system with a high degree of accuracy. I review some articles
on the differential elimination method and outline the mathematical foundation, Groebnar basis andBuchberger's algorithm.

第 530 回Date:

Tuesday, 12 February, 2013, 13:30-14:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

Dr. Shabtai Cohen (Head, Dept of Environmental Physics and Irrigation Institute of Soil, Water andEnvironmental Sciences, ARO Volcani Center, Israel)“Global dimming and brightening and evaporation in Israel”

Significant decreasing multi-decadal trends in global radiation measured at the earth’s surface, startingin the late 1950’s, were reported near the end of the 20th century (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001). Many ofthese decreasing trends, called “global dimming”, were in excess of 1% per decade, and they wereviewed with considerable skepticism by the scientific community. Beginning in the 1990’s a partial
recovery in global radiation has been observed in many places in the world (Wild et al., 2005). Thechanges in global radiation were most likely caused by atmospheric pollution and especially sulfate
aerosols which influence cloudiness and cloud properties. During the same period evaporation rates
were also found to decrease (Peterson et al., 1995). Those decreases were similar in magnitude to thatof the dimming (Roderick and Farquhar, 2002). However, there has been some debate on the significanceof changes in evaporation, because changes in regional and local evaporation rates can sometimes be in
opposite directions (Brutsaert and Parlange, 1998). The latter is predicted by the Bouchet (1963)
hypothesis. As our climate changes, a major concern in arid regions is whether the intensity of thehydrological cycle is increasing (spinning up) or decreasing (spinning down). A decreasing hydrologicalcycle can lead to reductions in rainfall, increasing aridity and droughts. Analysis of evaporation
measurements made between 1964 and 1998 at Bet Dagan in Israel’s central coastal plain showed asmall but statistically significant increase in screened Class A pan evaporation, mainly in the dry, summer
half of the year (Cohen, Ianetz and Stanhill, 2002). No changes were found in the total open water
evaporation or reference crop evapotranspiraton estimated with Penman’s combined heat balance andaerodynamic equation because the decreases found in the radiation balance term were offset byincreases in the aerodynamic term. The climatic changes responsible for these opposing trends were,respectively, decreases in global irradiance and increases in water vapor pressure deficit and wind speed,
the latter associated with changes in wind direction. Increases in windspeed were found to beconcentrated in afternoon hours of summer and fall months, while those of vapour pressure deficit werein the late afternoon of fall months. Normalized pan evaporation for dry months showed no significant
time trend, but a significant increase was found for wet months.

These results support the view thatthe widespread reductions in potential evaporation that have been reported, although not found at Bet
Dagan, were caused by global dimming rather than an increase in the rate of atmospheric moisture
cycling due to global warming. The trends should have a negative effect on water supply and demand(Moeller and Stanhill, 2007). These developments will be presented and discussed in the lecture.

第 531 回Date:

Thursday, 28 February, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) SAKAI Hidemitsu (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)
2) IIZUMI Toshichika (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Characterizing the reliability of global crop prediction based on seasonal climate forecast”
Reliable crop prediction, based on seasonal climate forecast, is attributed to the strong climate-crop
relationship and reliable forecast on climatic constraints of crops. Here we present the global
assessments of the climatic constraints of crops, degree of climate-crop relationship, and reliability ofseasonal forecast on the climatic constraints, based on the statistical crop models and ensembleseasonal climate forecasts. Maize, soybean, rice, and wheat are taken as the examples. We thenclassified the reliability of the within-season crop prediction into four categories in accordance with two
aspects, i.e., the degree of climate-crop relationship and the reliability of climate forecast: (I) reliable; (II)less reliable due to low reliability of climate forecast; (IV) less reliable due to weak climate-crop
relationship; and (III) little reliable due to both low reliability of climate forecast and weak climate-crop
relationship. Results show that the strong climate-crop relationship appeared in the area that produces
24-38% of the global crop production. On a global scale, 51-59% of the maize and soybean production issensitive to the soil moisture level during the reproductive growth period, while 47-53% of the rice andwheat production is sensitive to the temperature. Due to higher reliability of the temperature forecasts
than others, the area where the crop yield is temperature-sensitive and the temperature forecasts arereliable is certainly a nest of reliable crop prediction. The categorized reliability of crop predictionooindicates that improvements of soil-moisture forecast in 30-50 N for July-October and in 30-40 S for
February-April were needed for better maize and soybean prediction. Improved temperature forecasts ino

20-60 N for March-August are keys for rice and wheat prediction. This study establishes the novel
assessments on the reliability of crop prediction that, ultimately enable us to predict the impacts ofclimate extremes on the food access of people to global commodity markets.

第 532 回Date:

Thursday, 4 April, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) USUI Yasuhiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Effects of recent hot summers on spikelet fertility and grain quality of some rice cultivars in thecentral part of Kanto region, Japan”
Recently, extreme hot summers occur more frequently notably in the central part of Kanto region, andsome adverse impacts on rice production are becoming apparent. For example, the highest temperatureon record was recorded in mid-August 2007 at many weather stations in Central Japan, where weobserved higher-than-usual spikelet sterility. Severe reduction in appearance quality occurred in 2010,
the hottest summer ever in Japan. Kumagaya-city of Saitama Prefecture and Tatebayashi-city of Gumma
Prefecture are known to be the hot spots, where extreme high temperatures are recorded almost every
year, but how these heat events influence reproductive processes is not clear. In this study, we examinedvariation in grain setting, grain filling and apparent quality of a few rice cultivars commonly planted at
different timings at the two experimental stations in the 2011 and 2012 growing seasons.
2) YOSHIMOTO Mayumi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Low nitrogen fertilization elevates rice panicle temperature through the micrometeorological changeof plant canopy”
Frequent occurrence of immature rice grains in recent hot summers is possible to be due to low
nitrogen (N) fertilization concerning of rice taste. Spikelet sterility rate as well of field-grown rice exposed
to high temperatures at flowering is reported to have increased as N application rate was lower. Thus, Napplication is a key management for avoiding heat stress as well as promoting plant growth. While, thepanicle transpirational conductance is one of the determinants of panicle temperature (Tp) via

evaporative cooling of panicles as organs sensitive to heat. Low N fertilization might exacerbate heatstress through the change of transpiration of panicles as well as negative influence from plant
physiological traits. We conducted field experiments with different N treatments, where planttranspirational characteristics, micrometeorology and canopy structure were measured. And by applying
the measured factors to the Tp model (IM2PACT), we quantified the effects of low N on Tp through thechanges of their factors. The Tp was estimated to be elevated by low N by more than 1 C at most undertypical weather condition in Tsukuba.

第 533 回Date:

Thursday, 6 June, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) HASEGAWA Toshihiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)
2) FUKUI Shin (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“The phenological characteristics of rice cultivar estimated from performance test data”
It is important to understand the differences among crop varieties on phenological characteristics
quantitatively. There are many rice varieties in Japan and each variety has its trait and phenology
reflecting the optimal growth condition. Thus the yield and growing period under a certain
environmental condition differs depending on cultivar variation.

The crop model for rice ( e.g.

SIMRIW ) can estimate the crop phenology using daily temperature and day-length at this moment.
However, the model parameters are set for a specific cultivar and on a few cultivating stations. Therefore,
it arises incompatibility to apply such model parameters to large scale area, as utilizing for projection
covering all over the country. In this study, parameters for major cultivars are estimated by genetic
algorithm using the statstics data of performance test for recommendable varieties (76 stations,
1980-2009). Estimated parameters should represents the phenological characteristics and the resultclearly showed the cultivar feature especially the sensitivity to day-length. The imaginary cultivar
parameters for a certain area were obtained in the same manner. The characteristic trait of imaginary
cultivar on a certain region should be useful information when we develop an appropriate cultivar.

第 534 回Date:

Thursday, 27 June, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

1) ONO Keisuke (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Tillage-induced changes in aerodynamic roughness and their influence on carbon and nitrogendynamics in a fallow paddy”
For cultivation of one rice crop, a predominant crop in Japan, the fallow season can be as long as thegrowing season. Therefore, even a small change in the surface condition can alter the carbon andnitrogen dynamics through its integration over the entire fallow season. Aerodynamic roughness length(z0) is an important parameter to determine the rate of surface exchange of energy and materials.
Relationships between z0 and surface conditions are widely documented, but tillage-induced changes inz0 have not been investigated. The purpose of this study was thus to quantify tillage-induced changes in
z0 and their influence on carbon and nitrogen dynamics during the fallow season at the Mase rice paddy
site. In the seminar, some important results on the influence found by using numerical models arepresented.
2) ISHIGOOA Yasushi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“The phenological characteristics of rice cultivar estimated from performance test data”
Extreme high temperatures during the rice growing season which possibly cause serious degradationof rice yield and quality have become more frequent recently in Japan and are predicted to be evenmore frequent and severer in the future. In this study, the effectiveness of moving cultivation schedule
as adaptation to reduce impact of climate change on rice production and quality in large scale was
evaluated in large scale. A process-based rice development model, which is applicable for multi-cultivars,
was introduced and applied for all paddy area in Japan using mesh meteorological data having 2nd
spatial resolution (10km x 10km approximately) from 1981 to 2100 derived from multi-GCMs. In thisseminar, I will introduce some results of model implementation and discuss the strategies for selectionof optimal transplanting date which can reduce the impact of climate change on rice production andquality.

第 535 回Date:

Thursday, 1 August, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

1) KIM Wonsik (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Weighted mean method for eddy covariance flux measurement”
The study to monitor the exchange of energy, water vapor and carbon dioxide between theatmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem has been carried out with eddy covariance method throughout
the world (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov). The monitored exchange quantity, named flux F, is conventionallydetermined by a mean of 1 hr or 30 min interval because no technique have been fortified to directly
measure a momentary F itself at an instant of time. Therefore, the posterior analysis with this samplingshould be paid attention to those spatial or temporal averaging and summation in the consideration of
the sampling uncertainty. In particular, the averaging reckoned by arithmetic mean Fa might be in error
because the sample F used in this averaging has nonidentical inherent quality within one anotheraccording to different micrometeorological conditions while those are observed under the same
instruments. To overcome this issue, we propose the weighted mean Fw using a relative sampling error
estimated by a sampling measurement and introduce Fw performance tested with 3 years EC
measurements at tangerine orchard.
2) KUWAGATA Tsuneo (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Environmental response of aquaporin expressions in the rice roots under natural weather conditions”
Many of studies about the environmental response of gene expression of plants are made inlaboratory conditions, but few studies have been done in outdoor field. Aquaporins, the water channel
proteins, play crucial roles not only in regulation of plant water status, but also in uptake and transportof some kinds of minerals such as Silicon and Boron. Here we focused on the environmental response of

aquaporin expressions in the rice roots under natural weather conditions. During June to August, riceseedlings were grown hydroponically under field condition, and the roots of the 16 day-old plants werecollected every morning at 8:00 AM. The mRNA expression level of each aquaporin (AQP) member wasquantified by real time PCR. Among various meteorological parameters, such as air temperature, solar
radiation, wind speed, etc., the expression levels of the most AQPs positively correlated with air (or root)
temperature (T or Tr) within 24 hours. The expression levels of several AQPs, root specific ones inparticular, also highly correlated with the evaporative demand (potential evaporation, Ep) duringmorning hours. Finally we divided the 18 AQPs in the rice root into several groups according to theenvironmental response under natural weather conditions.

第 536 回Date:

Thursday, 29 August, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) TAKIMOTO Takahiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Long-term analysis of the heat and water balance over the Tibetan Plateau”
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced byclimate change. In recent years, long-term observation shows that the TP has been experiencing rapid
warming and wetting. However, there are few studies about heat and water balance associated withclimate change.The objectives in this study are (1) to quantify heat and water balance by using
meteorological station data and one-dimensional model and (2) to investigate these spatio-temporalcharacteristics.In the seminar, I will introduce the results of spatio-temporal analysis of the heat andwater budget component over the TP.
2) MIYATA Akira (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Agro-meteorology Division in the past 30 years”
As one of the anniversary events, NIAES is going to publish its 30-years' history since its establishment
in December 1983. I am now preparing a short review on the past 30 years of the Agro-meteorology
Division by tracing succession of the studies. I would like to discuss the outline of the review withattendees. Presentation and discussion may be made in Japanese.

第 537 回Date:

Thursday, 3 October, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) KODAMA Naomi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“High-throughput automated analysis of two dimensional positions and body lengths of earthworms(Oligochaeta); MimizuTrac”
Earthworms inhabit almost all ecosystems and are important soil macrofauna moving mainly forforaging. Their biomass is large, and their burrowing and ingestion of soils alters soil physicochemical
properties. Furthermore, the mucus excreted from the surface of their skin affects the surrounding soil
microbes which in turn have a strong influence on soil material flow dynamics. Also because of theirhuge biomass the earthworms are regarded as indicator as "soil heath". However, primarily owing to thedifficulties involved in quantifying their behavior, the extent of their impact on soil material flow
dynamics and "soil health" is poorly known. Image data have proven to be a powerful tool in quantifying
the movements of objects, with the aid of image processing tools. Image data sets are often huge andtime consuming to analyze especially if the data are continuously recorded and manually proceeded.
Thus, the objective of this study was to develop a system to quantify earthworm movement. Our newly
developed program successfully tracked the two-dimensional positions of three separate parts of theearthworm along with its change in body length. From the output data, we estimated the velocity. The
performance of the program has been verified by comparison with manually estimated data. To date,there are no existing systems to quantify earthworm activity, because they can move and stretch theirbodies out of view in continuously recorded image data. The system developed in this study will reducelabor intensity and errors involved in the quantification of huge data sets and provide more reliable
estimated values. In combination with other techniques, such as metabolic gas emission from theearthworm bodies, this program will provide continuous observations of earthworm behavior in
response to environmental variables under laboratory conditions.
2) IIZUMI Toshichika (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Impacts of ENSO on global yields of major crops”

第 538 回Date:

Thursday, 31 October, 2013, 13:30-14:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) OKADA Masashi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Modeling crop yields and water balance over water-limited region”
Crop growth and yields in water-limited regions are affected by irrigation management as well as
variations in climatic condition, especially precipitation. While many crop models can simulate theimpacts of variations in precipitation on given irrigation scenarios, only a few models can simulate
variations in crop yields accounting for available agricultural water resources responding to regional
climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We developed a coupled model for assessing both crop yields
and agricultural water resources and tested its performance, taking Songhua river watershed, Northeast
China, where a major semi-arid crop-producing region in China. Results showed that the simulated mean
evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture content during the growing season over the area matchedwith the corresponding observations. The simulated mean river discharge during the growing season fellwithin the range of the year-to-year variations in the observations during the past years. Also, thesimulated the long-term trend and annual variations in crop yield faithfully reproduced thecorresponding observations.

第 539 回Date:

Thursday, 28 November, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 153, NIAES

1) Charles P. Chen (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Contrasting the leaf photosynthetic response of the rice cultivars Takanari and Koshihikari to elevated[CO2] under free-air conditions”
The development of crops which are well-suited to growth under future environmental conditions
such as higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) is essential to meet the challenge of ensuring
food security in the face of the growing human population and changing climate. A high-yielding indica
rice variety (Oryza sativa L. cv. Takanari) has been identified as a potential candidate for such breeding,due to its extremely high productivity in present [CO2]. To test if it could further increase its productivity
under elevated [CO2] (eCO2), Takanari was grown in the paddy field under season-long free-air CO2
enrichment (FACE, approx. 200 µmol mol-1 above ambient [CO2]) and its leaf physiology was comparedwith the representative japonica variety ‘Koshihikari’ over two growing seasons. Takanari showed
consistently higher midday photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and carboxylation rate of Rubisco
than Koshihikari under both ambient and eCO2 growth conditions from heading to the mid-grain fillingstage. In contrast to Koshihikari, Takanari showed no decrease in total leaf nitrogen on an area basis
when grown in eCO2, and exhibited higher Rubisco content than Koshihikari at the mid-grain filling stage.
Chlorophyll content was higher in Takanari than Koshihikari at the same leaf nitrogen level. These results
indicate that Takanari performs strongly at the leaf-level in eCO2 and may be a valuable resource for rice
breeding programs which seek to increase crop productivity under current and future [CO2].
2) DU Mingyuan (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Applications of dust particle counter”
Three applications of dust particle counter would be reported. One: Dust particle counter were used
for measure dust concentration at three stations with different surface conditions in a small area at
Dunhuang, China from March 25 to April 15, 2004. Convergence/divergence method was used forevaluating regional dust emission from the area by calculating horizontal dust transportation (horizontal
dust flux) from the three stations. The results show that although the horizontal dust flux at Gobi desert
was the most among the three stations due to strong wind there, dust concentration at cropland was themost among the three stations and regional dust emission occurred only when the wind blow fromcropland to Gobi desert. This suggests that agriculture activities play an important role for regional dust
emission at Dunhuang, China. Two: Dust particle counter were used for measure dust concentration at
three stations in Japan for understanding the characteristics of dust event in Japan.
Three: Dust particle counter were used for measure PM2.5 in Tsukuba. Some charecterists of PM2.5 inspring 2013 would be reported.

第 540 回Date:

Thursday, 26 December, 2013, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

1) FUKUOKA Minehiko (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)
2) MISHIMORI Motoki (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Impact and adaptation study for climate change on local paddy rice production in Kochi Prefecture”
A technology to estimate heading date, yield and content rate of protein of paddy rice for Koshi-hikari

and Hino-hikari (every most popular early- and normal- ripening variety in Japan) are established.
Although the yield is projected to increase owing to fertilization effect of CO2, when extreme higher
temperature occurs near future, the yields would significantly decreases and the protein contentsslightly increases for the preliminary experiments by using a simple ‘pseudo-warming’ climate scenario
made of observed daily temperature added constant increasing. It suggests that fertilizer applications forpaddy rice cultivation is quite important.

第 541 回（講演は日本語で実施）
Date:

Wednesday, 22 January, 2014, 15:00-16:20

Venue:

Room No. 453, NIAES

Dr. Atsushi J. Nagano (Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University)“Modeling of field transcriptomes: from prediction toward designing”
Recent advances in plant molecular biology have revealed large effects of the circadian clock, organism
age, and environmental stimuli on transcriptomes under simple, controlled laboratory conditions.
However, the factors that control transcriptomes under natural conditions are largely unknown. We havedeveloped statistical models using extensive field transcriptome data and the corresponding
meteorological data (Nagano et al., (2012) Cell. 151 (6), 1358-1369.). We named this approach as “fieldtranscriptomics”. We showed that the transcriptome dynamics of rice leaves in a paddy field were mainly
governed by ambient temperature and endogenous diurnal rhythms, as well as by plant age and solar
radiation. We also found diurnal gates for environmental stimuli, detected associations between thethresholds for plant response to solar radiation and signal-to-noise ratios for day-length change, andpredicted transcriptomes under given environmental conditions. Our models comprehensively describetranscriptome dynamics under complex field conditions and will help researchers to translate the vast
molecular knowledge amassed in laboratories into solutions to problems in agricultural and naturalenvironments.
As a next step, we are trying to combine quantitative genetics and field transcriptomics to elucidate
genetic factors controlling the parameters in the model. For this project, we established ahighly-parallelized cost-effective RNA-Seq system and a novel algorithm to analyze relations among
genomic polymolphisms, transcriptome dynamics and high-density meteorological time-series. After themodeling, we will be able to simulate transcriptome dynamics in any genotypes, locations and times. In
addition of the prediction, we will be able to design a genome having desired transcriptome dynamics.

第 542 回Date:

Monday, 3 February, 2014, 13:30-15:00

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) YOSHIMOTO Mayumi (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Heat risk prediction model estimating temperatures all the rice spikelets encounter in the field”
High temperatures during flowering induce spikelets sterility of rice (HISS). As panicles gradually
emerge in the field for a several days and spikelets gradually flower from upper part to lower part of a

panicle for a several days, and flowering hour varies with the weather conditions and varieties, thetemperature that individual spiklet encounters at flowering is different among spikelets, which causes
the uncertainty in evaluation of sterility rate on rice yield models. We developed a heat risk prediction
model to estimate the temperatures that all spikelets in the field are exposured at flowering, by
combining the distributions of panicles emergence, of spikelets flowering, and of their flowering hours ina day, which was incorporated with the panicle temperature estimation model (IM2PACT). The model
simulation showed that Koshihikari in Tsukuba, 2013 might avoid the HISS damage because the heading
date was one week earlier than the highest risk period. Applying the model to AgMIP sentinel sites
suggested that introducing the early morning flowering line is more effective in India than in thePhilippines and China for cooling the panicle temperature.
2) SAKAI Hidemitsu (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)

第 543 回Date:

Tuesday, 26 March, 2014, 13:30-15:30

Venue:

Room No. 547, NIAES

1) YONEMURA Seiichiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES)“Performance of the flow-through-chamber technique to estimate NO and N2O emission rates ofagricultural volcanic soil in laboratory”
Flow-through-chamber technique has several merits in comparison with closed-chamber techniqueregardless of its complexity and several scientific groups have developed the kind of measurement
systems so far. However, information of the careful tests of the systems is not fully documented andmost of agricultural researchers do not use such kind of systems. We applied our flow-through chambersystem to measurements of NO and N2O exchanges by agricultural soil in laboratory and carefully
checked the methodology. The NO and N2O emission rates estimated by the flow-through-chamber
technique corresponded well with those by the closed-chamber technique within 10% and were notinfluenced by the flow rate flushing through chambers. Strong stirring of soil by the fan resulted in a little(6%) increase of NO emission but no significant increase in N2O emission. Unexpectedly, the NO and N2Oemission rates per unit soil were smaller or larger with increases in soil weight, respectively. However,further from the dependence of NO emission rate on NO concentration itself, we calculated bothproduction rate (45.4 ngN g-1 h-1) and consumption rate (0.24x10-5 m3 kg-1 s-1) of NO over initial
3.5 days after N application, which show compensation concentration of 9.3 ppm. The simultaneous
estimation of production and consumption rates of NO is very difficult by the closed-chamber technique
but was found to be possible by simply changing soil weight in our system.
2) USUI Yasuhiro (Agro-Meteorology Division, NIAES) （講演は日本語で実施）“Impacts of mass transport through ponded water in a paddy field on the atmosphere near the water
surface”
Many physical, chemical, and biological phenomena take place in the ponded water of a paddy field. It
is important to capture directly the feature of these phenomena which vary from hour to hour. It isthought to have an impact on the surround environment because paddy field area has a large proportionof crop land. However, until recently, a lack of proper instrumentation made difficult to do continuousmeasurement. Presenters have been working on development of measuring technique and its
measurement for physical phenomena at the paddy field. In this presentation, I will give an explanation
about these measuring techniques and past measurements achievements.