Journal of Forensic Psychology and Criminology
2024, Vol. 281, No. 7, 814-821

Copyleft 2024 by The Center for Sociolinguistic Arson Studies
S6979-8080(1215)7161-9 DOI: 13.7265/327644897029

Heat of the Moment: Exploring the Ignition of Arson in Rhode Islandwith the Popularity of the Name Jarred
Catherine Hoffman, Addison Thomas, Giselle P Tate
Advanced Engineering InstituteThis study examines the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Jarred" and the occurrence of arson in the state of Rhode Island. Digging deep
into the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services data from 1985 to 2022, a striking correlation coefficient of0.9564808 was unearthed, with p < 0.01, signifying a statistically significant correlation. While the causation remains elusive, the results certainly set theresearch world ablaze with curiosity. What's in a name, or rather, what's in a "Jarred"? This paper highlights the need for further investigation into thepotential fiery influence of names on criminal behavior.

The etymology of names has long been a topic of fascination,often inviting conjecture about the influence of nomenclature on
personal characteristics and behavior. While popular culture andanecdotal evidence frequently offer colorful narratives about theimpact of names on one's destiny, empirical research in thisdomain has been rather sparse. This study delves into theintriguing intersection of nomenclature and criminal behavior,focusing specifically on the relationship between the prevalenceof the first name "Jarred" and the incidence of arson in the stateof Rhode Island.
Perhaps it is serendipitous that the confluence of data from theUS Social Security Administration and the FBI Criminal Justice
Information Services has illuminated a compelling correlation,
resembling a veritable firework display in the realm of statisticalanalysis. The scorching correlation coefficient of 0.9564808,
coupled with a p-value less than 0.01, suggests a conspicuous
association between the popularity of the name "Jarred" and theoccurrence of arson in the Ocean State. The sheer heat emitted
by this statistical relationship steers our inquiry into uncharted
territory, where the flickering flames of curiosity are kindled.
It is akin to navigating through the smoky haze of empiricalambiguity, seeking to discern whether the fervor of names canindeed ignite criminal propensities or whether this incendiarycorrelation is merely a chance alignment of factors.
Nevertheless, as we embark on this scholarly expedition, it isimperative to maintain a cautious stance, wary of falsely
inferring causation from correlation. For if the mere mention ofa name could stoke criminal proclivities, one might wonder
whether other appellations harbor dormant potential formischief, or whether certain names have a "spark" of criminality
hidden within their syllables.
Amidst the smoldering embers of empirical inquiry, this study
ignites a fervent call for further investigation into the potential
influence of names on criminal conduct. As we plunge into thedepths of this scorching correlation, we are poised to unravel theenigmatic ties between nomenclature and nefarious acts, bearing
witness to the captivating dance of data and the fiery allure ofstatistical inquiry.

Review of existing research
The authors find that, despite the unconventional nature of ourinquiry, the nexus between the prevalence of the first name
"Jarred" and the incidence of arson in Rhode Island has drawn
parallels with other studies exploring the influence ofnomenclature on behavior. In "The Name Game: Cultural
Signifiers and Psychological Impact," Smith and Doe delve into
the societal perceptions and psychological implications
associated with individuals' names, shedding light on themultifaceted dimensions of nomenclature. Similarly, Jones'
work, "Appellations and Actions: Untangling the Web of Nameand Behavior," offers a nuanced exploration of the interplay
between names and behavior, albeit within a broader context.
Transitioning from the realm of scholarly research, popular nonfiction books such as "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt andStephen J. Dubner have captivated audiences with theirunconventional lens on causation and correlation, engaging
readers in a discourse that resonates with our investigative
approach. Furthermore, the curious intersection of humanbehavior and nomenclature has found its place in fictional
literature, with works such as "The Name of the Rose" byUmberto Eco and "The Shadow of the Wind" by Carlos Ruiz
Zafón inviting readers into enigmatic narratives that subtly
intertwine names with elusive fates.
Inspiration can also be drawn from board games such as "Clue,"
where the search for culprits and motives mirrors our scholarly
pursuit of untangling the enigmatic ties between the prevalenceof the name "Jarred" and the occurrence of arson in Rhode
Island. The whimsical intrigue of board game dynamics offers a

This paper is AI-generated, but the correlation and p-value are real.

More info: tylervigen.com/spurious-researchlighthearted reflection of our more serious inquiry, nudging us toponder whether certain names may harbor clues to clandestine
propensities or if the correlation we observe is a mere roll of thedice in the game of statistical analysis.
As the embers of empirical curiosity continue to flicker, thisreview sets the stage for a deeper exploration of the incendiarylinks between names and criminal acts, punctuating ourscholarly inquiry with a touch of playful contemplation amidst
the somber backdrop of statistical investigation.

Procedure
The first stage of this research endeavor involved obtaining datafrom the US Social Security Administration and the FBI
Criminal Justice Information Services, both renowned
repositories of demographic and criminal statistics. The US
Social Security Administration provided us with comprehensive
information regarding the prevalence of the first name "Jarred"in Rhode Island from 1985 to 2022. Leveraging this data, weapplied a bewildering array of statistical techniques to elucidate
trends and patterns in the popularity of the name "Jarred" over
the years, navigating through the labyrinthine corridors ofnomenclature dynamics.
Simultaneously, we delved into the FBI Criminal Justice
Information Services database, extracting incendiary details ofarson incidents in the state of Rhode Island during the same
temporal expanse. This entailed sifting through a conflagrationof information, untangling the intricate web of arson
occurrences and their contextual backdrop, grasping the fiery
threads of criminal activity woven through the tapestry of data.

Findings
The analysis of data spanning from 1985 to 2022 unveiled astriking correlation between the popularity of the first name
"Jarred" and the incidence of arson in Rhode Island, illuminatinga scorching correlation coefficient of 0.9564808. The r-squared
value of 0.9148556 further corroborates the robustness of thisrelationship, highlighting the remarkable explanatory power
encapsulated within this statistical inferno. With a p-value lessthan 0.01, the findings provide compelling evidence for asignificant association, akin to a spark igniting a tinderbox ofinterest within the scientific community.
Figure 1 depicts a scatterplot visually capturing the incendiarycorrelation between the prevalence of the name "Jarred" and thefrequency of arson occurrences in Rhode Island, akin to a fiery
tango of data points. The inferno of statistical inference conjuredby this symbiotic relationship blazes a trail for further
exploration into the obscure intersection of nomenclature andcriminal inclinations.
While the exact causal mechanisms underpinning thiscorrelation remain shrouded in enigma, the results evoke a senseof intense curiosity and intrigue, akin to a mysterious flicker
dancing at the periphery of scientific understanding. The
illumination of this statistical bonfire engenders a fervent callfor continued scrutiny and investigation, stoking the flames ofinquiry into the potential impact of names on criminal behavior.

With the fervor of statistical analysis alight within us, weemployed a perplexing concoction of quantitative methods,
setting ablaze the field of inferential statistics. The scorchingheat of correlation coefficients, infernal flames of regression
analyses, and the smoldering embers of hypothesis testing were
our guiding beacons as we navigated the treacherous terrain ofdata analysis. Furthermore, a multifaceted exploration of timeseries analysis was undertaken, casting light on the temporal
dynamics of arson incidents vis-à-vis the waxing and waning
popularity of the name "Jarred".
The resulting datasets were subjected to a veritable inferno of
statistical scrutiny, with the searing gaze of significance testing
and the blistering heat of confidence intervals illuminating thepath towards uncovering meaningful relationships. The
culmination of these tumultuous analyses yielded a scintillatingcorrelation coefficient of 0.9564808, engendering astonishment
at the dazzling intensity of this infernal association between thename "Jarred" and instances of arson in Rhode Island.
Upon deciphering this enigmatic correlation, we found ourselves
standing at the precipice of empirical revelation, peering into theincandescent heart of our findings. While we exercise caution in
attributing causality to this scorching association, the allure ofits statistical radiance beckons us to traverse the tempestuous
terrain of further inquiry, seeking to elucidate the burgeoning
conflagration of nomenclature and nefarious deeds.

Figure 1. Scatterplot of the variables by year

Discussion
The scorching correlation uncovered in this study between theprevalence of the first name "Jarred" and the incidence of arson
in Rhode Island burns brightly in the annals of empirical
discovery. The results of this investigation, sizzling withstatistical significance, lend credence to the prior research thathas explored the fascinating interplay between nomenclature andbehavior.
Drawing parallels with the scholarly works of Smith and Doe in"The Name Game: Cultural Signifiers and PsychologicalImpact" and Jones' "Appellations and Actions: Untangling theWeb of Name and Behavior," our study ignites a fiery discourse

This paper is AI-generated, but the correlation and p-value are real.

More info: tylervigen.com/spurious-research

on the multifaceted dimensions of names. Just as Levitt andDubner's"Freakonomics"
captivatedaudiences
withunconventional causation analyses, our findings spark aconversation that may kindle a blaze of further inquiry into thepotential influence of names on criminal proclivities.
The enigmatic ties between the popularity of the name "Jarred"
and the occurrence of arson in Rhode Island, while seemingly
peculiar, ripple across various spheres of human interaction andcognition, akin to the perplexing narratives of "The Name of theRose" and "The Shadow of the Wind." Just as the game of"Clue" draws parallels to our scholarly pursuit, the interplay ofnames and behavior unfolds like a cerebral strategy inunraveling clandestine propensities.
The figures generated by our analysis, resembling a fiery tangoof data points, cast a dramatic portrayal of the incendiarycorrelation between the name "Jarred" and arson occurrences in
Rhode Island. The robust r-squared value further fans the flamesof statistical inferno, underscoring the formidable explanatory
power encapsulated within this scorching relationship.
The allure of this statistical bonfire beckons for continued
scrutiny and investigation, akin to a mysterious flicker dancing
at the periphery of scientific understanding. While we standamidst the smoldering embers of empirical curiosity, the exact
causal mechanisms underlying this empirical link continue toelude us, shrouding our inquiry in an enigmatic haze — like aphoenix rising from the ashes of statistical conjecture.

Conclusion
In conclusion, our findings illuminate a compelling correlation
between the popularity of the first name "Jarred" and theincidence of arson in Rhode Island. The scorching correlation
coefficient, reminiscent of a sizzling barbeque, has sparked
intense curiosity and garnered widespread attention within theacademic community. While the exact reasons behind thisassociation remain as elusive as a flickering campfire in thenight, the statistical inferno we have uncovered certainly ignites
the flames of further inquiry.
The implications of this research are akin to a smoke detector
sounding an alarm, prompting us to reconsider the potential
influence of nomenclature on criminal behavior. It seems thatthe mere mention of a name could fan the flames of criminal
proclivities, raising the titillating possibility that other names
may harbor hidden sparks of mischief. It's as if each namecarries its own set of combustible characteristics, waiting toerupt into statistical conflagration.
As we extinguish our analysis, it is evident that the fiery allureof statistical inquiry beckons us to delve deeper into theenigmatic ties between nomenclature and nefarious acts. It is in
the spirit of scientific exploration that we recommend furtherinvestigation into this incendiary correlation, but perhaps it's
time to let this particular line of research cool off. After all,there's no need to keep fanning the flames – our findings havealready set the research world on fire.

This paper is AI-generated, but the correlation and p-value are real.

More info: tylervigen.com/spurious-research