2015.06.19＠エメックス国際セミナー

陸域の人間活動と沿岸域の環境
Human Activiteis and Coastal Sea Environment

鈴木基之
Motoyuki Suzuki

suzuki@ouj.ac.jp

概 要Outline• 地球上の水の循環• 我が国における水利用量• 人はどう水を使っている
かー経済成長と水• 水域内で生じている諸現象• 瀬戸内海では• 世界における閉鎖性海域• 人間活動の制御• Global water cycles• Utilization of water inJapan• Economic development
and water• Typical phenomena inwater bodies• Seto Inland Sea• Enclosed seas in theworld• Management of Human
Activities

地球上の水循環
Global Water Cycles

循環量 存在量

Flows

陸上の水蒸気Water Vapor

海上の水蒸気Water Vapor

3
蒸発･降雨
9 9
蒸発散

降雨
Precipitation

44.8

10

Tranpiration

65.2

110

氷河・氷
Ice/Glacier

24,064

永久凍土
Permafrost

300

土壌水分
Soil Humidity

Stocks2.2

蒸発Evaporation

生物体
Biomass沼沢
1 Marsh河川水River Water
湖沼水
11
2 Lake/Dam

17

176

502.8

降雨
Precipitation

458

42.6

海洋水
地下水
Ground Water

Unit: 1012 m3/year 23,400
Unit: 1012 m3

1,338,000
2.2
Suzuki, TIT日本の水収支
Water Balances in Japan

降水量
Precipitation
6,400

使用過程での蒸発
Evaporation Loss
250

直接蒸発
Evaporation
2,300
(36%)

再生可能水資源の20%を人間活動に利用
515

農業用水
Agriculture

工業用水
Industry
84

養魚用水

122

48

生活用水
Domestic
流出
1,850

単位: 108 ton/yr
2012MLIT：「日本の水資源」など

海洋

洪水流出
Flood
2,000

水と人間活動

Human Activities & Water

農業
Agriculture

民生
Domestic Use
工業
Industry

Run-off Water
流出水(降雨－蒸発)Gross Domestic
Product
国内総生産

Agricultural Use
農業利用
河川水など

River, Dam, Ground water

肥料、生産技術など
Fertilizer, technologies, etc.

Agricultural
Product
農業生産物
産業構造、効率など
Industrial Structure, Efficiencies, etc.

Industrial Use
工業利用

Industrial Product
工業生産物
市場システムなど
Market system, etc.

Domestic Use
民生消費
Environmental Water

環境水

Commercial
Product
商業的生産

Ecosystem Services
天然資源、生態系
サービスアジア諸国における経済成長

一人当たりの国内総生産
GDP per Capita (current USD)

100,000

Growth of GDP per Capita in Asian Countries

10,000

1,000

100

1960 65 70

75

80

85

90

95 2000 05 2010

USA
Japan
Germany
Korea
Malaysia
China
ThailandMongolIndonesia
Sri Lanka
Philippines
BhutanVietnamIndia
Lao PDR
Pakistan
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Nepal一人当たり各部門別水利用量
Water withdrawal per Capita (m3/year)

Germany
Japan
USA

Korea.

Malaysia

Nepal
Banglades
Cambodia
Pakistan
Lao PDR
Vietnam
India
Philippine
BhutanMongolia
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
China
Thailand

1,000

アジア諸国における分野別水利
用量とGDP
Water withdrawals
vs. GDP per Capita
in Asian countries

100

農業用
Agricultural
工業用Industrial

10

家庭用
Domestic

1
100

1,000

10,000100,000

一人当たり国内総生産（US$） GDP per Capita (2010)

AQUASTAT (FAO),
Most recent statistics.
From 2000-2010
World Bank, 2012

Location of the Seto Inland Sea in Japan

Kobe

200

50 100End ofCold War

Bubble海藻・貝類計
Algae & Shellfish
Economy魚類計
Red Tide Event
Fish Crops

海面養殖
Farmed Fish
Damage to Fishery

N,P Control

Tokyo Olympic

Income Doubling Plan

100

300

Total Effluent Control

播磨、備讃、燧、安
芸灘における赤潮
発生日数の総和 ：0「瀬戸内海の赤潮
1940
1950( 水産庁瀬戸内海
漁業調整事務所)」

150 400

Water Pollution Control Law

1

World War 2nd2

200 500

総漁業生産量(1,000ton)
Total Fisheries
水質総量規制（ N,P)

3

水質汚濁防止法

4

漁獲量の推移 350 900
Energy(107kcal/capita)
Fish Catches
800
300
6
GNP(10 yen/capita)
700
250
Economic
600 Growth

水質総量規制（ COD)

5

Oil Crisis

瀬戸内海中央部の赤潮発生数
日本における経済成長とエネルギー消費,
1940-2007
of Redin theSeto Inland in
Sea
TrendsOccurrenceof Economy
and Tide
EnergyConsumptionJapan0196019651970
200020052010
1970 19751980
1980 1985 1990
1990 1995 2000
2010 200

M. Suzuki, Tokyo Tech

瀬戸内海の諸元
Dimensions of the Seto Inland Sea• 海面積(Sea surface area): 23,203km2*1• 流入一級河川(Number of Main Rivers): 21*2• 海面降雨量（Est. Precipitation): 27.8km3/yr• 潮汐交換流量(Est. Tidal Exchange): 39km3/d*3*4– 平均水深(Average depth): 38m– 容積(Volume): 881km3– 小島嶼数(Number of Small Islands): 727– 流域総面積(Total basin area): 33,098km2– 河川総流入量(Total Inflow): 33.3km3/yr– ダム(高さ>15m)数(No. of dams): 302– 流域総人口(Total population in basin area): 1930万人(19.3million including 11.6million in Yodo River Basin)*1 環境省瀬戸内ネットより*3 年間降雨量1.2mを仮定*2 日本河川協会監修『河川便覧』（2004）*4 干満差1.7mを仮定

広島湾における潮位の変化（2015年5月23日）
Tidal Curve in Horoshima Bay (May 23, 2015)

Observation at Ushina Sea Coast, Hiroshima by The Maritime Safety Agency

1,000閉鎖性海域の流域内人口と海表面積
Basin Populations of Typical Enclosed Seas
Black Sea

流域内人口(百万)Basin population (million)

Bohai Sea
渤海

Gulf of Thailand

100

Persian Gulf
瀬戸内海
Seto Inland Sea

10

Chesapeake Bay

Puget Bay

1.0
1.0

10

North Sea
Mediterranean Sea
Baltic Sea
Japan Sea
日本海

Persian Gulf

Black Sea
Red Sea100
1,000
海表面積(1,000km2)
Sea surface area

10,000人間活動の拡大(1990-2010)
Expansion of Human Activities• 総人口の増加：30%

billions
Population Increase: 30%
世界全体: 52.9 億人 (1990) から 8
69.1 億人 (2010)
6
Less Developed Countries
World Total: 5.29billion to 6.91 billion
4
アジア: 32.0 億人 (1990) から
41.6 億人 (2010)
More Developed
2
Asia: 3.2 billion to 4.16 billion
Countries(http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp
0/unpp/p2k0data.asp)• 経済活動・総生産(Gross Product)(2005USD)
世界全体: 30.0 兆 (1990) から 50.2 兆 (2010): 67% 増加
World Total: 30 trillion to 50.2trillion: 67% increase
アジア: 5.63 兆 (1990) から 12.4 兆 (2010): 120% 増加
Asia: 5.63 trillion to 12.4 trillion: 120% increase(http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/#HistoricalMacroTables)
M. Suzuki

8
6
4
2
0

(1961-2007)

窒素肥料の消費量(百万トンN)
Consumption in million tonN

窒素肥料の消費量(世界全体)
World Consumption of Nitrogen Fertilizer
120

former USSR
former East Germany
EuropeAfricaOceania
North America
Central/Latin America
China
India
Other Asian countries

100
80
60
40
20
0

自然界窒素循環: 110 mill ton
Natural Nitrogen Cycle

人間活動の環境負荷の例
Typical Example of Human Impact
1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

年
From Junko Shindo (http://www.niaes.affrc.go.jp/magazine/pdf/mgzn12301(3).pdf)

地球上の海面水温の平年差(℃)
Anomaly of Global Average Sea Temperature

0.5

0100年間の海面水温の変化
Change of Global Averaged Sea Temperature

瀬戸内海水面温度, 3年移動トレンド，1981-2007
Seto Inland Sea Surface Temperature, 3 year MA-0.5

人間活動の環境負荷の例
Typical Example of Human Impact-11890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

結論に代えてIn Place of Conclusion• 沿岸域は人々の憩いの場であり、また水産の場でありながら、陸域の人間活動の諸々の影響が及ぶ場として環境問題のシンボルとなる場である。閉鎖的な海域はその典型である。
• 閉鎖性海域は、その性状故に海水の滞留時間も大きく、潮流の流れは複雑であり、底泥への有機物・栄養塩などの蓄積も大きい。さらに海域内における生物的な活動も多様で、往々にして不可逆的な様相を呈する。
• 海域における水産などの変化を予測し、健全な海域を創出・維持するための管理方法を構築することは魅力的で大きな挑戦である。
• 海域に対する負荷を与え続けている人間活動の制御を図ることが先ず第一歩であろう。
• Coastal seas have been suffering ever expanding human activities on theland and losing their valuable ecosystem service functions.
• Sustainable management of an enclosed sea is highly dependent on its
local characteristics composed of complex physical and biologicalstructures. Integrated approach for establishment of healthy ecotones isa challenging but charming task for all the stakeholders.

Joint Ownership
Enhances a Power!

19

Review of Coastal Management Policy
and Future Directions in Japan

Keizo Negi
Office for Environmental Management of
Enclosed Coastal Seas
Ministry of the Environment, JAPAN(MOEJ)

Environmental policies of Enclosed Coastal Seas in JAPAN

1950-1970s
 Development by higheconomic growth andexpansion of industrial
activity Water pollution byplant effluent andliving drainage
 Loss of Shallow
zone by reclamation
 Frequent occurrenceof large-scale red tide
 Frequent occurrence ofoil spill

Ministry of the Environment

Environmental administration
Restrict laws were enacted
1967 Basic Law for Environmental
Pollution Control
1970 Water Pollution Control Law
1971 Environment Agency
was established1972 Nature Conservation Law
1973 Interim Law for Conservationof the Environment of
the Seto Inland Sea
1978 Total pollutant load control(TPLC) was adopted for
COD

1

Environmental policies of Enclosed Coastal Seas in JAPAN

1980-1990s

Environmental administration

 Continuous occurrenceof red tide

1993 Basic Environmental Law

 Generation of oxygen
deficient water

1993 Nitrogen and Phosphorus
were added to the effluent
standard

 Occurrence oflarge-scale oil spill

1994 NOWPAP was established Collection of sea gravel

2000 EMECS was established

1990s Creation ofenvironments topass on to future International
contributions

Ministry of the Environment

2000 Basic Plan for Conservationof the Environment of
the Seto Inland Sea
2001 Reorganized as
Environment Ministry
2001 Nitrogen and Phosphorus
were added to TPLC
2004 WEPA was established2

Features of Total Pollutant Load Control System
The Total Pollutant Load Control System (TPLCS) One red dot =5,000 people(2006)
aims to reduce the overall inflow amount of pollutant
loads, and being applied to the large enclosed
coastal seas.

The concentration of population andindustries are so high that the effluent
concentration standard alone cannot
achieve the Environmental Quality
Standard for Water Pollution.

The TPLCS is a regulative discharge control system to reduce
the total pollutant load that flows into the target water area by setting:• Target items (COD, N and P)• Water quality aim• Total pollutant load at the target year
• Effluent control levels for each dischargers

Ministry of the Environment3

TPLCS areas in Japan
Seto Inland Sea
Hiroshima
Yamaguchi

HyougoKyoto
OkayamaOsaka
Nara

KagawaTokushima

Fukuoka

Ehime

Hokkaido

Tokyo Bay
Wakayama

Ooita

Osaka

HonsyuSaitam
a
Tokyo

Tokyo

Kanagawa

Chiba

SikokuKyusyuIse Bay

Note:

Gifu

Boundary ofPrefecture
Boundary of
TPLCS Area

Ministry of the Environment

Okinawa

Aichi

Mie

4

Overview of TPLCS in Japan

Conservation and recovery both of seaweed beds and tidal flats aswell as improvement of bottom sediments are also being carriedout.
Ministry of the Environment

5Generated pollutant load (COD)

Tokyo
Bay

Seto Inland Sea

Ise Bay

ＣＯＤM Load （ton/Day）

1,000

Remarks : ‘14 values = Target Amount

95

OthersIndustrial Discharges
Household Discharges

800

1,012

200
0

900
89 83882 74672 672

429
367

600
400

Seto Inland Sea

477
38 413

Tokyo Bay115 40 355
83 36 286
76 30 247
211
59 28
183 177
52 25
42 23 22324 29036 36
243
197 167
144 124 119'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 ‘14'14

Ise Bay307
286 272
37 35
246
221
34
29
186
119 101
97 83 27 22 158 146
76
65 20 1957 56
151 150 141 134 118
99 81 71

'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 ‘14
'14

67
356

561
55

309
286

468 47254 56

245
193 215488

444

400 365319

261 221201‘14'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14

TPLCS(COD) was implemented in 1980.
Ministry of the Environment

6Generated pollutant load (T-N & T-P)
800

T-N Load （ton/day）

T-N

Seto Inland Sea
Remarks : ‘14 values = Target Amount700

others

600

Household Discharges

300
200
100

Seto Inland Sea
666

Industrial Discharges

500
400

Tokyo
Bay

639

596
228

233
226 232
221

Tokyo Bay364
67

0'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09‘14'14

249 225 223
188 18566 63

168 161259

433 440

195 191

191
117

143 129

95 111

118 115

62 58
54 51
52 49 42 39
49 49
29 26
22 22
69 73 64 64 60 52 47 44

189 188 201 205 184'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 ‘14'14

TPLCS(T-N) was implemented in 2001

70

T-P

Remarks : ‘14 values = Target Amount

T-P Load （ton/day）

30
20

0

63

othersIndustrial Discharges
Household Discharges

50
40

159 143 138'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 ‘14
'14

60

10

Ministry of the Environment

476

200

Ise Bay

333 31964 64 280254
55
96
49 20882 72
185 181
50
41 43
37 38
29
26 25
201 187 183 175
164 136
122 118

Ise Bay

697
656

13
47

43

41
7
10

Seto Inland Sea

Tokyo Bay

20 12

Ise Bay30

6 26 2321
6
6
5
5 4 4 15
4 3 13 12
25
2 3 2
1 1
18 15
14 14
10 9 924'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14‘14'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14
‘14

8

20
7

16
19 17

15

7 6
5 11 97 5 5 4 3
3 2
3
10 7
6 6 7 5 4
7

9
2
3
4

41 40

12 11

11 31

14 13 1310830
19 17 17 16

28 27
10 10
7 7

12 11 11‘14
'79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14

TPLCS(T-P) was implemented in 2001

7

COD distribution (Tokyo Bay)

Tokyo
Bay

Seto Inland Sea

Ise Bay

Average for 1982 to1984

Ministry of the Environment

Average for 2009 to 20128

T-N & T-P distribution (Tokyo Bay)
Seto Inland Sea

T-N

Average for1982 to1984

Tokyo
Bay
Ise Bay

Average for 2009 to 2012

T-P

Ministry of the Environment

Average for1982 to1984

Average for 2009 to 2012 9

Transition of pollutant load per bay area and water quality

COD（上層）（mg/L）

COD (Surface layer) (mg/L)

Tokyo
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Ise Bay
伊勢湾

東京湾
Bay

Seto Inland Sea

Osaka

瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）
瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）
excl. Osaka Bay

大阪湾
大阪湾
Bay

FY1979-83
FY1984-88
FY1989-93
FY1994-98
FY1999-2003
FY2004-08
FY2009-13
FY2009^13

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Tokyo
Ise

0.40

TN (Surface
layer) (mg/L)
TN（上層）（mg/L）

1.6

伊勢湾
伊勢湾
Ise Bay

Seto Inland Sea
excl. Osaka Bay

FY1979-83
FY1984-88
FY1989-93
FY1994-98
FY1999-2003
FY2004-08

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

FY2009-13
FY2009-13

0.00

0.05

0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
水域面積当たりのTN負荷量（t/日/km2）
TN load per unit water area (ton/day/㎢）

Ministry of the Environment

東京湾
Bay
0.12

大阪湾
大阪湾

1.4
1.2

Tokyo

Osaka
Bay

瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）
瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）

0.30

TP（上層）（mg/L）
TP (Surface
layer) (mg/L)

Tokyo
Bay

東京湾
東京湾

Osaka

Seto

COD load
per unit water area (ton/day/㎢）
水域面積当たりのCOD負荷量（t/日/km2）

伊勢湾
Ise Bay
伊勢湾

Seto Inland Sea
excl. Osaka Bay

Osaka
大阪湾
大阪湾

瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）
瀬戸内海（大阪湾を除く）

Bay

0.10
0.08

FY1979-83
FY1984-88
FY1989-93
FY1994-98
FY1999-2003
FY2004-08
FY2009-13

0.06
0.04
0.02

FY2009-13

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
水域面積当たりのTP負荷量（t/日/km2）
TP load per unit water area (ton/day/㎢）

0.04

10

Occurrences of Red Tide and Blue Tide
Red tide

Tokyo
東京湾
bay

Cases 300

Ise
伊勢湾
bay

Seto inland sea
瀬戸内海

250
200
150
100

0

S45
S46
S47
S48
S49
S50
S51
S52
S53
S54
S55
S56
S57
S58
S59
S60
S61
S62
S63
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
H6
H7
H8
H9
H10
H11
H12
H13
H14
H15
H16
H17
H18
H19
H20
H21
H22

50

Blue tide
Cases

Tokyo bay

Cases

Ise bay

Source: Tokyo bay: Tokyo Bay Environmental Information Center, Ise bay: Aichi Prefecture, Seto inland sea: Fisheries Agency
Ministry of the Environment

11

The bottom DO distribution in summer
Tokyo Bay

Average for 1992 to 1994
Ministry of the Environment

Average for 2009 to 2012
12

The bottom DO distribution in summer

Osaka Bay

Average for 1992 to 1994

Ministry of the Environment

Average for 2009 to 201213

Change of the area of tidal flat in the Seto Inland Sea

Ministry of the Environment

2006

1995

1989~90

1978

1969

1949

1925

1898

Tidal flat area (ha)Trend of change

14

Change of the area of seaweed bed in the Seto Inland Sea

Trend of change

Eelgrass bed

Seaweed bed area (ha)Sargassum bed

Ministry of the Environment

1989~90

1978

1971

1966

1960

Others15

Consideration to the new directions of TPLCS
Overview and challenges• The 7th TPLCS was implemented up to 2014 with setting reduction
targets for COD, nitrogen and phosphorus loads.
• Overall pollutant load from the land has been on a continued declinereflecting our efforts through TPLCS.
• However, the achievement rate of the Environmental Standard for thematters differ area to area. We meanwhile continue to see red tide andoxygen-deficient water masses.
• What has been generally pointed out is the importance of bio-diversity
and sea-productivity through conservation and recovery of seaweed
beds and tidal flats envisaging “Bountiful Sea”.

Ministry of the Environment

16

Consideration to the new directions of TPLCSPath forwards• The basic “should-be” for the 8th TPLCS was put under deliberation by
the Central Environment Council as per the inquiry by the Minister ofthe MOEJ as of September 8, 2014.
• The TPLCS technical specialists committee positioned under thecouncil has been intent to work on the new directions in response to
the inquiry.

Ministry of the Environment17

Outline of the Basic Plan for Conservation of
the Environment of the Seto Inland Sea
The positioning and the aims of the Basic Plan
• The basic plan is based upon the Article 3 of the Law Concerning Special
Measures for Conservation of the Environment of the Seto Inland Sea.
• The plan works as the key guideline in implementation of the environmental
activities including TPLCS, conservation and recovery of seaweed beds andtidal flats, consideration in gravel digging and reclamation, etc. in view ofholistic preservation of the environment in the sea.
• The governors of 13 prefectures surrounding the sea are liable to set theirrespective implementation plans for the environmental conservation.

Ministry of the Environment

18

Point of the changes in the Basic Plan

Ⅰ

Ⅲ

Ministry of the Environment

Ⅱ

Ⅳ

19

The changes in the Basic Plan
Ⅰ. Conservation, recovery and creation of coastal areas (1)1. Conservation of seaweed beds, tidal flats, sand beach, salty marsh, etc.
2. Conservation of the natural beaches.
3. Improvement of the conditions of the sea bottom and hollows.
＊ Efforts to carry out dredging, sand-covering, sand-fulfilling, sea
bottom cultivation, reclamation of hollows, etc. for the areas withdisappearing habitats due to repeated occurrences of oxygendeficient water masses and deteriorated bottom conditions.
＊ Careful study in advance over the influences in the neighboring
coastal areas and effectiveness in conducting reclamation for thehollows.

Ministry of the Environment

20

The changes in the Basic Plan
Ⅰ. Conservation, recovery and creation of coastal areas (2)4. Restraining of gravel digging of the sea bottom＊ Gravel digging which has been prohibited per the prefecturalordinances should stay prohibited in principle. (The rest is omitted.)
5. Careful considerations for environmental preservation opposite
reclamation programs
6. Adoption of environment-friendly infrastructure＊ Efforts taking environment into consideration in such cases as building
new embankments etc. and maintenance/renewal of existing
structures in order to recover and create activated habitats.
＊ Efforts aiming at co-existence with the nature and harmonization withthe environment in execution of the measures for disaster prevention
and mitigation like maintenance and renewal of the coast-protection
facilities.
Ministry of the Environment

21

The changes in the Basic Plan
Ⅱ. Conservation and management of water quality
1. Implementation of TPLCS ( Key concepts set in the Basic Plan)＊ Comprehensive and planned measures for drainage from household,industry and other sources.
＊ Promotion of adaptive approaches for the water quality control
measures fine-tuned to regional and seasonal differences withgood thoughts of the influences and feasibility of those measures,
while thinking of sea-area utilization in the respective localities,
basically in view of the importance to secure bio-diversity and bioproductivity. (The rest is omitted.)
2. Further promotion and installation of sewerage facilities.
3. Improvement of sea water quality and sea bottom environment.
4. Reduction of hazardous chemicals flowing into the sea.
5. Prevention of contamination caused with oils.

Ministry of the Environment

22

The changes in the Basic Plan (continued)
6. Conservation of beaches, shellfish gathering areas, areas for nature
education and so forth.
In addition to the afore-mentioned, efforts should be made to conserve
good conditions of the water quality in the areas for contact with nature,
recreation and relaxation for the people in community, the areas such as
bathing beaches, the seashore for shellfish gathering, nature educationand so forth. (The rest is omitted.)

Ministry of the Environment

23

Activities for “Beautiful and Bountiful Sea”
Promotion of Sato-umi creation programs
Distribution survey of seaweed beds and tidal flats in the Seto Inland Sea

Green: Seaweed beds distribution
Brown: Tidal flats distribution
Source: Website of the Japan Coast Guard
10 Km x 10Km

Ministry of the Environment

24

Activities for “Beautiful and Bountiful Sea”
Survey of the Sea bottom sediment and its elution• Overall investigation into the sediment conditions and comparative analysis withthe data available to date.
• Estimation of the elution volume of nutritive salts out of the sediment into the sea
water.

外海
Open
sea

Household drainage

Red赤潮
tide
Organic pollutant

Elution
溶出
Deteriorated
water

Ministry of the Environment

Sedimentation
沈降

Nitrogen, phosphorus
Phytoplankton

25

H27
2015

Promotion of
Sato-umi creation

Sediment
accumulation andelution survey

Specific measures
for Beautiful andBountiful Sea

Setting ofsurveymethods

H28
2016

H29
2017

H30
2018

Satellite image analysis for distribution ofseaweed beds and tidal flats

H31
2019
Mapping of
seaweed beds
and tidal flats

Comparative analysis of the current sediment accumulationand its creatures against the past records

Study on thesurvey subjects

Study on the measures for Beautiful and Bountiful Sea

26

Measures for the Beautiful and Bountiful Sea

Path forwards for “Beautiful and Bountiful Sea” (plan)Snapshots from Sato-umi creation activities
Sato-umi: The coastal sea with high bio-diversity and bio-productivity underthe moderate human interaction.

Coast management
by cleanup program (Kyoto Pref.)Habitat study (Shima city)

Reproduction and management of
the Zostera beds (Yokohama city)

Ministry of the Environment

Tidal flat management(Shima city)27Sato-umi creation support projects by MOEJ

1. Sato-umi Creation Manual
Reviewed case studies in the model projects
and formulated Sato-umi Creation Manual forvarious enclosed coastal seas.

2. Publicity
MOEJ Sato-umi Net:
http://www.env.go.jp/water/heisa/satoumi/en/index_e.html

3. Activities for Beautiful and Bountiful Sea

Ministry of the Environment28

Increasing cases of Sato-umi creation activities

A questionnaire survey was
conducted opposite the local
governments, NPOs, people infishery industry, etc. in 2014.
The response rate was about
40% against the questionnaires
sent out to 245 organizations
and groups in total.
The number of Sato-umi
activities identified was 216
cases as compared with 122
cases counted in the similar
survey conducted in 2010.

Ministry of the Environment

29

Activity bodies engaged in Sato-umi creation＊Not only the people working in fishery or in their associations but also the local governments
as well as NPOs and the like are involved in the creation activities, a notable diversity of thebodies.
＊Some activities focusing on enlightenment in collaboration with educational and research
institutions.

Activity
bodies for Sato-umi creation
里海づくり活動の活動体制
0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

60.5

Local
gov.
行政機関

80.5

Fishery
漁業関係
53.5

Local
people
地域住民
34.0

Edu.
& Res.
教育・研究
Others
その他

70.0

【％】

25.1

% totalnot tocometo adue100%
due
to theanswers.
multiple
TheThe% totaldoes does
not comea 100%
to themultipleanswers.
Ministry of the Environment

30

Various
activities for Sato-umi creation
Various activities
The activities range from direct approaches to environment such as the creation ofseaweed beds to some enlightenment and educational programs.
Wide variation in the activities
里海づくり活動の内容
里海づくり活動の内容
0.0 0.0

20.0

20.040.0

60.0
40.0

80.060.0

54.9

54.9

藻場・干潟の藻場・干潟の保全・再生・創出
保全・再生・創出
Seaweed beds and tidal flats
17.4

貴重な生物の保全
貴重な生物の保全

11.7
8.9

8.9

Elimination of non-local creature

海辺の湿地の保全・再生
海辺の湿地の保全・再生

Wetlands preservation

3.8

3.8
23.9

水質の保全・改善

水質の保全・改善
Water quality
improvement
16.9

底質の改善

底質の改善
Sediment improvement

海岸の緑化

23.9

16.9
32.9

ゴミ対策

ゴミ対策
Garbage reduction andcontrol

Greening along coastal
lines
海岸の緑化

4.2

52.6

漁場の保全・再生

自然とのふれあい

30.0

環境教育

29.1

Familiarization
with nature
自然とのふれあい
Environmental education
環境教育

Ministry of the Environment

32.9

4.2

Fishing groundpreservation
漁場の保全・再生

学習会や学習会や
Study meetings& symposiums
シンポジウムの開催
シンポジウムの開催
コミュニティの再構築
Rebuildingof community
コミュニティの再構築

100.0

11.7

Creation of forest in mountains

外来生物の駆除
外来生物の駆除

【％】
80.0

17.4

Preservation of rare creatures
山の森づくり
山の森づくり

【％】
100.0

52.6

30.0
29.1

22.5
複数回答可のため合計値は100％にならない。
22.5
8.5

8.5

The % total does not come to a 100% due to the multiple answers.

31

.

Ministry of the Environment

32

Sustainable management ofestuaries in North-Western
Europe in response to
climate change
Jean-Paul Ducrotoy
Reading Professor Emeritus
The University of Hull, UK

The Channel « la Manche » and the North Sea

Ythan, GB

North Sea
Humber | GB

Elbe | DE

Scheldt | NL,BE

ChannelNorth Sea
ChannelSomme | F
Seine | F

• Drown valley estuaries• Megatidal estuaries

EUROPE

What to look for?

1. Establishing a robust
science foundation

1. An applied research
programme : a scientificcomponent
Established in 1995 as a
research program and in 2003 as a
GIP : Groupement d’Intérêt Public
2. A tool for decision making with
an operational component• Dissemination to the scientificcommunity, the estuary’s
stakeholders and the public• Use of the available scientificinformation to the benefit ofdecision makers and managers of
the estuary

What is the GIP
Seine Aval ?

Carrying capacity
GIS functional habitats
Comparisons between
potential habitats andrealized habitats(field observations)

Habitat mapping in terms of theirrole in the ecological functioningof the Seine estuary (feeding,resting, breeding, migration,nursery ...).

• Spatial model of therole of estuarine
habitats of the Seinefor different species• 50 benthic species, 27
fish species, 61 birds
speciesEuropean Union• Implemented
January 2010
June 2014

To turn integrated management andplanning into a reality in estuaries• New complementary
programme ANPHYECOJanuary 2015

= working with nature

December 2018

2. Reducing impacts of dredging
and harbour management
Using local
material fordyke
construction
Relocating
sediments

Hydrodynamics• Increase in wave
• Increase in tide return intervals

Damping /amplification•Decreased frictional drag on tidal wave
•Landward progression with increased
amplitude•Increased current velocities•Increased channel widening and deepening

Physicochemistry• Increased salinities in inner estuary• Landward migration of turbidity maximum

PHYSICAL RESPONSESTO CC IN ESTUARIESThe Elbe,
Germany

Concept for a sustainable developmentof the Tidal Elbe River as an arteryof the metropolitan region Hamburg andbeyondHamburg

Dr.-Ing. Hans Peter Dücker Dr.-Ing. Hans-Heinrich Witte
Dipl.-Ing. Heinz GlindemannDevelopment of themean high waterand mean low water
as annual values
and 19-yearaveragevalues at the tidegauge St. Pauli incomparison to theanthropogenic
measures and thedevelopmentof the water surface
areas in the port ofHamburg

Consequencesof tidalincrease• In space• Longshore migration offlats• Reduction of existing
salt marshes• Establishment of newmarshes upstream• In time• Biological diversity
impoverishment• High energy habitats inthe outer parts

Challenges in tidal
estuaries

Sediments• Increasing sediment transport,
requiring more maintenancedredging and improved
sediment management

River engineering measures as milestones fora future action plan for the Tidal Elbe River
The sediment management concept
therefore intends to relocate fresh,noncontaminated sediments inareas where there is lesspossibility for them to return to theplace where they were dredged.

Sediment
management
concept

3. Understanding
biological effects of CC
Promotingbiodiversity
Protecting
species andhabitats
Compensation Restoration

Biological effects of CC on
estuaries
Population
dynamics andinteractions• Competition
Mutualism• Food chains• Decomposition
Carbon cycle

Biologicaldiversity• Communities
impoverishment• Development ofopportunists

Habitats
change• Salt marshes
migration• Populations
redistribution• Displacementof species• « Alien »speciesGoods
andservicesEFFECTS OF
INCREASED
SOLAR
RADIATION AND
TEMPERATURE

photoperiod /solar radiation• adequate timing (e.g.
appearance of juveniles)• tolerance vs age, development
stage

temperature• growth & survival : increase intolerance in genetic groups

The Scheldt, Belgium and theNetherlands

Antwerpen

Increasing risks of inundation

Profile through the valley

Area and % intertidal Scheldt (Belgium) area

After P. Meire, 2008

Depolderisation

Tide level
regulation

The Humber
EnglandHullHumber Estuary, UK – flood risk
relative SLR = SLR + isostatic reboundSource: Environment Agency

Habitat Creation
Restoration / set-back / managed realignment /depolderisation

75ha of wetland @€10.6M

Public Safety - Economy - Environment

Photos: Environment Agency‘Win-win-win situation’AlkboroughHumberHabitat(re)creation• Account for ecological,
economic and societal
needs• Interlink multiple
processes, efforts andinvestments alreadytaking place• Use knowledge andsolutions generated inprevious projects(HARBASINS, SedNet,
New!Delta)• Link to existing
management plans and
EU Directives

The Somme, France

Le Crotoy

Himasthla {genus} - Platyhelminthes;
Trematoda; Echinostomida;
IP1: Hydrobia ulvae
Echinostomatidae;(gasteropod)
IP2: Cockle
DH: a sea bird (gull or
European Oystercatcher)“favorisation”
mechanism
Caudron & Ducrotoy 1983,
Combes, 1995

Synergies

Role ofcompetition(intra &inter sp) to
be clarified

i.e. lower
resistance ofinfested cockles
to heatWeakened
cockles more
prone toparatism

Factors
interplay
and workin synergy

1. Tidal leveland sedimentquality
2. Anoxia andtemperature
3. Parasitism
and predation

3 main types offactors drive thecockle population
dynamics

4. Monitoring measurestaken

Le Havre
Rouen

The Seine, FranceAutomated highfequency monitoring
Network for continuous measurement ofwater quality• T °, conductivity (salinity), pH,
Dissolved Oxygen, Turbidity,
Chlorophyll (height of water)• Frequency: every 5 min• Depth: 1m below the surface upstream+ 1m above the bottom downstream
Objectives• Estimating solid (sediments) and liquid
fluxes• Monitoring the impact of Rouen on
water quality• Monitoring changes in the anoxic zone
and the turbidity maximum• Calibrating numerical models

Sea level rise32

Wave heigth
Observed 2008
Estimated from wind speed 2008
LHN tidal gauge historical data• Simulation made ​in theframework •of With
the Seinea rise in sea level of 60cm
Aval program, ignoring• At high tide
any morphologicaladjustments.
• Landwards movement of salinity front of theSalinity• P Le Hir

Seine of 1km

Salinitychanges due
to 60 cm sea
level rise onof the Seine
estuary athigh tide
Data LEGOS (Laboratoired’Etudes en Géophysique etOcéanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh(2008)

Turbidity
maximum+60 cmhigh tideSeine
estuary
P Le Hir

Hydraulic model

Water level according
to differenthydrological events

Definition of return periods of events triggering floods (flood tide, storm surge)
Development of scenarios triggering floods overflow
Development of a hydraulic model of the estuary
Modelling the water level under different scenarios
36

Source : SHOM & CETMEF, 2012

Source : GIP Loire estuaire, 2010

Striped red mullet Mullet surmuletusM = marsh
Is = intertidal steep
If = intertidal flat
Ss = subtidal shallow
Sm = subtidal
moderately deep
Sd = subtidal deepIntercomparison

Challenges

Ecosystem Functions• Endangered estuarine ecosystem
functions: flood regulation, coastal
protection, water purification, plant

and animal habitats

5. Sharing anddisseminating information

The GIP – a working interface
Decision making
Usage

Activité« GIZC »ICZM

Inparactice

Knowledge
mobilization andintegration of scientificexpertise

Data collect and knowledge
production
Science
After J Denis

Appropriationof knowledge

Expertise
Added value
andknowledgetransfer• Tools development

Scientific communication• Estuarine dashboard• Numerical modeling (in Q3
2011)• GIS (for links between species,
habitats and functionalities:functional habitats)• Communication• 23 booklets (30 to 50 pages)• 25 fact sheets (6 pages)• Synthesis reports (chemical
contamination, PCB’s, flooding…)• Information letters• …

Knowledgetransfer anddevelopment
General public• Illustrated book
• Newsletter• Scoreboard• Website• Press Releases

Conclusion

Sea level
Waves / rugosity /currents

Precipitations
River flow

Temperature
Phenology
Biogeography

Salinity / anoxia
Metabolism intensity

Salinity / deepening

Turbidity maximum /sedimentology

Plankton
Respiration / heartbit
Energy intake

Erosion / mud flats,
salt marshes
migration

Food webs

Pathology
Acclimatation /adaptation

Shifts indistribution

Radiations

CO2 Increase

Fecondity, growthand development

Animal hypercapnia
Acidification

Survival / Lethal
effects
Mobility
Phototactic
responses

Species
extinction /opportunists

Photosynthesis
Primary production
Osmotic pressure inphanerogam plants

New ecosystems

Future of wetland

Expected effects of climate changeWhat will betheimplicationsof global
change for
estuarine
ecologicalmanagement?

Climate change
will affect thepractice andfuture of therestoration ofdamagedestuarine habitats

To focus onfunctioning at
ecosystem level(goods andservices) rather
than on structure

Climate change
will make"habitats" ofinterest morefragile and lessresilient

Restauration tocatter for shifting
speciesBeware over-simplification• human population• water withdrawals• discharge of
sediments andsubstances• harvest, and• species introductions• freshwater flow
• sediment budgets• alteration of vegetatedbeds• eutrophication, and• shifts in species
composition or distribution

estuaries are complex, variable ecosystems
need to consider regional and local
differences in forcing and responses

Ecological + sociological continuum:
from local to global• Water shed and costal habitats are linked throughestuaries• Difficult to define a reference based on pristineconditions in present-day disturbed/urbanised estuaries• More appropriate to identify trends rather thanthresholds• Take into account local natural variations of ecosystem
conditions and human activities

Patrimonial view of ecosystems…
• Ecosystems are
dynamical• Restoration to focus on
ecosystems not species• Need to allow species toadapt to new biophysicalconditions• European and national
legislation aim at
protecting habitats• are species based• Risk of protected
habitats to become"fossilised"Ecosystemic approach

Adaptive management

Goods andservices

Ecosystems
response

Ecosystemfunctioning

Social contract

Prospection

Multiscale
GIZC Ecosystem
multipartners
BasedManagement
Planification

CONCLUSION
Towards
ecosystem
based
management

Sustainable development

Holistic approachTHE « TIDE APPROACH »Challenges and perspectives

Comparison of Sediment
Dredging and Relocation
Strategies
Bringing a central challenge of all four
estuaries – the sediment dredging andrelocation strategies – into joint focus:• Collection of data regarding
traffic areas, maintenance, typeof dredging, disposal sites,
alternative utilization, etc.
• Estuary internal evaluations andrecommendations

Similar Challenges:
Frame Conditions• Increasingly challenging legal
and global economic
framework• EU Directives (Birds and Habitat, Water
Framework)• Economic prosperity and big port
development• Climate change

Sea level rise
RETROSPECTIVE
French coastfrom 1993
to 2006

mean
increase:

0-5mm/year(satellite
data)

Mouth of the Seine(measured at le Havre)

+ 1.8

+ 2.7

+ / -0.4mm from1938 to2006+/- 1.5mm from1993 to2006

PROSPECTIVE 2100
Minimum
Seine trend
value: 18 to
27cm

Data LEGOS (Laboratoire d’Etudes en
Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh (2008)

High value IPCC

would translate into a
60cm

1 m increase in
the Seine because ofhorizontal
friction inestuary

verticalfriction inestuaryWater stocks
RETROSPECTIVE
Overall trend of declining water
stockssurface

sub

under

surfacegroundPROSPECTIVE 2100
Major
river
basins(remotesensing)-60
km2/y
Data LEGOS (Laboratoire d’Etudes
en Géophysique etOcéanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh(2008)

from2002 to2007

Heterogeneoustrends in
the stockof groundwater inbasin ofthe Seineinrelationtostructuralcontext

Significant decreaseof groundwater
recharge-3000
millionm3
year

same orderofmagnitude
as volumes
currently
levied fromthe basin of
the SeineRiver flow
RETROSPECTIVE

Overalldecrease inflow ofrivers inEuropesince
1920

Statistically significant trend toincreasing flow of the Seine and its
tributaries

PROSPECTIVE 2100
Decrease in meanannual flow of the
Seine=

Increasedaverageflow ofthe Seine
from
1946

10
to
30%
(depending on
adjusted
trend)

2 breaks inhydrologicalcycle of theSeine in 1970

and 1990

140 26%m3/s of the(uncertainty 50m3/s)

Decreased
flow in allseasons,
but mainly
in Summer

current
averageflow

Data LEGOS (Laboratoire d’Etudes en
Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh (2008)

Atmospheric temperature
RETROSPECTIVE
Worldwide,
averageincrease of
0.6°C inthe 20th
century

In France,
averageincrease of

0.7 to1.1°C
distributed
heterogene
ously in the
territory

Statisticallysignificant
trend ofincreasing
T ° in thebasin ofthe Seinefrom thebeginningof the 20th
century

Data LEGOS (Laboratoire d’Etudes en
Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh 2008

PROSPECTIVE 2100
In France:+ 3 to5°C

On the watershed of theSeine: + 2 to 4°C

likelyincrease of
number of
hot daysgreaterdecreasein theaveragenumber ofdays offrost andsnowPrecipitations
RETROSPECTIVE
Intense precipitation in recent
decadesrising T°,
more
intenseevaporation
andsupersaturation ofatmospherestagnationorslowdown
in areas
between
20° and45°
latitude.

drying up
Mediterranean andhumidifica
tion Westand North
the last 15
years

Break inrainfall inthewatershedof theSeine inthe 90s

PROSPECTIVE 2100
Expected

Watershed of the Seine

accelerationof thewater
cycle

decrease in annual
precipitation
decreasein
Summerprecipitati
on

-12%

uncertainty
in Winterincrease of
number ofdays
without
precipitationand greater
persistenceof dry spells

Surface water temperature
RETROSPECTIVE
Worldwide

20th century

Frenchrivers+1°C+2°C+0.8°C

acrosstheglobe

in theNorth
Atlantic

between1975 and2005

PROSPECTIVE 2100
Increasedwater T ° of
the Seine
according to
air T °

Data LEGOS (Laboratoire d’Etudes en
Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales)
Cazenave, 2008 and P.Piranoh (2008)

EMECS’11– SeaCoasts’XXVI
St. Petersburg, 2016
August 22-27, 2016

EMECS’11 – SeaCoasts’XXVI Joint Conference
Title of the Conference
Coastal Regions: Managing Risks and Communities in the Changing World

Main organizers of the Conference:•International Center for Environmental Management of Enclosed Coastal
Seas, EMECS, Japan;•Working Group «Sea coasts», Russia.

Local organizers of the Conference:-Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU);-P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the RAS;
-A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI).

International EMECS Center(International Center for Environmental Management of Enclosed Coastal Seas)

International EMECS Center’s objectives shallbe to construct an organized network linking
governments, researchers, private companies,
citizens etc. to promote academic exchanges
on an international level and conduct research,conferences, seminars, educational programs,
in order to conserve existing enclosed coastal
sea environments, create new ones and help
create a society capable of sustainable
development.

“SeaCoasts”
The Working Group «Sea coasts» - social civic organization, created at
RAS (Council on the World Ocean problems Section of geology, geophysics
and geochemistry of ocean) for concentration and coordination of theefforts of Russian coast researches. It was founded in 1952 and during halfa century it raised high a prestige of the Russian scientists and experts inthe world. The last 10 conferences began to be international.
Last Conferences:- XXIII Conference “Coastal Evolution Studies: Traditions and Modern
Concepts”, 2010, St. Petersburg;- XXIV Conference “Sea Coasts – Evolution, Ecology, Economy”, 2012,
Tuapse;- XXV Conference “Coastal zone – future perspectives”, 2014, Sochi.

Russian State Hydrometeorological University
1930 — the university was founded (Leningrad
Hydrometeorological Institute)1995 — the university was granted RTC WMO (Regional
Training Centre of the World Meteorological Organization) status.
1998 — RSHU was granted the status of university (modern
name, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, RSHU).
2006 — RSHU joined Magna Charta Universitatum.
2010 — RSHU was awarded a Certificate of the International
Standards System ISO 9001:2008.

P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanologyof the Russian Academy of Science
The P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology is the oldest and the largest
Russian research center in the field of oceanology. The main objectives of
the Institute lie in a complex study of the World Ocean and the Russianseas. based on the idea of entirety of physical, chemical, biological andgeological processes observed in them, laying scientific foundations forforecasting variability of the Earth's climate, rational use of marine
resources and safeguarding of ecological security in the interests ofsustainable development of mankind. The research of the marine coasts
and adjacent aquatic areas is one of the main tasks of the Institute.

A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI)
A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI) is a successor and custodianof traditions of the first state geological institution in Russia, the Geological Committee,
which was established in Saint Petersburg on 31 January 1882 by the decree of Emperor
Alexander III for the purpose of systematic study of geological structure and compilation of
the geological map of Russia, as well as for resolving of practical issues on prospectivity
estimation of the country’s territory for different mineral resources. Department of Marine
and Environmental Geology is one of the main research and scientific part of the Institute.

EMECS’11 –SeaCoasts’XXVI Joint ConferenceBASIC TOPICS of SPECIAL SESSIONS• Coastal systems and their dynamics (from coast to water andfrom water to coast)• Coastal erosion and dynamic processes in the nearshore zone
• Climate change in the changing world. Coastal adaptation toclimate change• Construction and exploitation of hydraulic engineering
structures and dredging in the coastal areas• Approaches and issues modeling and monitoring of processes in
the coastal areas

EMECS’11 –SeaCoasts’XXVI Joint ConferenceBASIC TOPICS of SPECIAL SESSIONS• Interactions between coastal zone and the open sea: impact on
the coastal and the marine ecosystems• Ecological sensitivity of coastal area: anthropogenic loads andnatural disasters• ICZM – case study and new experience• GIS & marine spatial planning• Sustainable use and development of coastal resources: effective
management and approaches

Tentative parameters of
EMECS’11 – SeaCoasts’XXVI Joint Conference

We wait
Number of participants - 500:

Notes for information, latest conference participants:
EMECS10 (2013) – 300;
Seacoast 24 (2012) – 150.

Conference venue – Vasilievsky Congress-Hall.
Event days – 5.
10 Conference Section (can be change), plus
Students and Schools Partnership (SSP) Session.

EMECS’11 – SeaCoasts’XXVIProgramme
August 22, Arrival day (AAR)
ArrivalAccommodation
Registration
August 23, 1st day
Registration
Opening of EMECS’11
Plenary Session
Lunch
Sessions
Ice-Breaker
August 24, 2nd day
Sessions
Lunch
Sessions

August 25, 3rd day
Sessions
Lunch
City Tour
August 26, 4th day
Sessions
Lunch
Plenary Session
Closing of EMECS’11
Conference Reception(River boat Cruise)
August 27, 5th day
Technical Field Trip

EMECS’11 –SeaCoasts’XXVI Joint Conference

Planning:
Posters session will cover all themes of the Conference per half-day.
SSP session will be organized during one of the Conference day in a hallof VSEGEI. This meeting needs to determine themes and mainorganizers of the SSP session.
Special Exhibit is not planning as a part of the Conference activity, but it
is possible to have some stands during the poster session. Distribution ofdifferent advertising information about Conference Sponsors will bepossible as well.
One of the Special Session can be organized in Saint Petersburg
Scientific Center, where Russian Academy of Sciences was situated inancient time.

Official
Joint Conference
Logo
and Web-site

Registration for the Conference
participants will be organized through apersonal login on the Conference website.

http://www.emecs-sc2016.com/

Welcome
to Saint-Petersburg!

South to North Water Diversion Projectof China:
Feasibility and Challenge
Zhongyuan Chen
East China Normal University

Highlights• Better understanding of the distribution ofwater resources in China• ‘Why and What’ is the S-N water diversion
project?
• Balance between people and nature?
• Challenge?
• How can we manage it better?

A brief introductionof S-N water
diversion projectGeography of Changjiang
and Yellow Rivers

South – North Water Diversion project
West route
Middle route
East route

West route:briefs and tasks• Water to be diverted from the upper Changjiang
to the Yellow R.;• Via a series of water reservoirs in the river basins,and via tunnels across divides;• Annual water diversion : 145～195 x 108m3 (fromdifferent tributaries)• Coverage: Qinghai, Ganshu, Ningxia, Inner
Mengolia, Shanxi, and Sanxi (6 provinces);• To supply to the upper Yellower R. basin for
helping industrial, farming, domestic and stockraising, etc.

West route project

Middle route:briefs and tasks• Starting from Danjiangkou Reservoir to Beijing andTianjin, totaling 1246 km (144 km from Beijing to
Tianjin city) ;• Via water canals; self-flowing based on topographic
gradient across mountains and valleys;• To help solve the issues due to water shortage in thecentral Yellow R. basin, mainly including Hubei, Henanand north China plain;• Water to be used for domestic purpose, also forindustrial and farming;•

Middle route project

Middle route:
Danjiangkou Reservoir

Hanjiang basin: mean discharge 591 x 108 m3,
Annual Input into reservoir: 409 x 108 m3
Water used in the basin: 37 x 108 m3
Water diversion: 145 x 108 m3

Eastern route:briefs and tasks• To be diverted from Yangzhou, along the JingHang Grand Cannel; across eastern plain to
Tianjin megacity;• Using pumping stations; self-flowing to
Tianjin after crossing the Yellow R.;• Main purpose: water supply for domestic
usage, navigation, and hazard mitigation, etc;

East route
Water discharge to the sea:
>9000 409 x 108 m3，
Water diverted: 278.6 x 108
m3，(2010)
Water to be diverted: 254.5 x
108 m3 (2030)

Why should S-N water
Diversion project belaunched?

Unevenly-distributed water resource• The Chinagjiang R. has owned an annual runoff of ca. 9500
x108m3 (35% of the total), which irrigates ca. 25% of the arable
land of China.
• The annual runoff of northern China takes only ca. 17% of thetotal, while caring ca. 62% of the total arable land.
• The total runoff of the major rivers (the Yellow, Huai and Hai
river) of northern China is 1573 x 10 x8m3 (6％ of the total).
However it needs to irrigate ca. 40％ of the arable land of China.
• In particular, the Haihe River’s annual runoff is 26 x 4108m3 (<1％of the total), but it irrigates ca. 12％ of the total. In comparison,• the water resource of the Changjiang is 10 times of the Haihe
River (17 times per capita).

Population pressure

Yellow River basin
huge farming and over irrigation

No-water: drought and over irrigation

No-water days

1972-1977 (Lijin Station)Days

Feasibility and necessity• Population pressure (migrants to the eastern coast
mega-cities• Water shortage in northern China (human and climatechange)• Lower water resource for per person of northern China:
85.6 m3 and 45 m3 (Beijing and Tianjin, 1993); farlower than developed countries;• Sufficient water resource of the Changjiang basin (9500x108m3 (35% of the total/25% of the arable land); but,northern China (esp. the Yellower R.) 17% of thetotal/62% of the total arable land
• Water diversion: 200 x 108 m3 per year

Challenges• Socioeconomical perspectives• Regional interest• Water quality issues• Environmental constraints• Expenditures• Management• ……

Estuarine issues
Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise…

In-situ observation
February of 2014

Freshwater sourceSaltwater
intrusion
Low flow season
3 s-1
Thresholddischarge:
12,000xm
15000 m3/s (50%); 10000 m3/s (20%)
Flood season

Non-flood season

50% v. freshwater availability
during dry season

Red tides of the east China coast

Red tides occurrences

Better management• Long-term observation• Integrated sciences• Increasing in social awareness andresponsibility• Bottom-up voices

Thank you for yourattention

平成26－30年度環境研究総合推進費【戦略的研究開発領域】
S13「持続可能な沿岸海域実現を目指した

沿岸海域管理手法の開発」（公財）国際エメックスセンター
特別研究員
柳 哲雄

環境研究総合推進費【戦略的研究開発領域】
持続可能な沿岸海域実現を目指した沿岸海域管理手法の開発（2014～2018）
テーマ１

テーマ３

テーマ２

テーマ４

１．瀬戸内海（閉鎖的内湾）班

2．三陸沿岸海域（開放的内湾）班

3．日本海（陸棚・島嶼）班

４．社会・人文科学班

望ましい水質決定法
高い生物多様性・生産性実現手法
総量削減→貧酸素水塊解消機構

津波からの環境回復監視
復興に必要な人手（里海創生）「森は海の恋人」の定量的理由解明

生物多様性保全のためのMPA貢献度
日本海の流動・生態系変化予測
国際的・広域的海域環境管理

生態系サービスの貨幣価値99.8%の市民と海を結ぶ里海物語
MPAにおける漁業活動調整
テーマ５

総括班

沿岸海域管理のための統合数値モデル構築

激動する世界の中での沿岸海域管理哲学構築
望ましい沿岸海域の定量的環境指標を実現するために必要な施策
政策支援ツールとしての自然・社会・人文科学統合モデル

統合型沿岸海域モデル
見える化

環境行政施策１．５億/年

協議会（三段階管理体制）

きれいで、豊かで、賑わいのある持続可能な沿岸海域実現

世界発信瀬戸内海班：研究課題
I.

湾灘による生産構造の違い
 栄養塩～プランクトン食性魚、貝類までの生産構造（広島湾～備讃瀬戸）
 魚類生産の底辺となる主要なプランクトン食性魚であるイカナゴ・カタクチイワシの個体群動態

II. 浅場生態系の機能評価と回復
 干潟・アマモ場の機能解明（水質と生物生産）
 有光底層の拡大と干潟・藻場の適正配置III. 湾灘における海域利用と適正な栄養塩負荷・水質レベル（総括班との連携）
IV. 貧酸素水塊消滅機構、生態系変化（総括班と
の連携）

春

夏

秋

干潟 : 季節変動 大
流入: DIP, POP
流出: DIP
春・夏: 貯留
秋・冬: 溶出春

アマモ場: 枯れたアマモの急速な再生ー
再生産速度 大 ？

多田ら (2014)

三陸沿岸海域：研究課題
１）生態系遷移に伴うエコトーンの利用・管理
手法、養殖管理手法確立
２）森は海の恋人か？（物質輸送・有機物の役
割）
３）津波で復活したエコトーンの将来像

GeoEye-1 （人工衛星）
２００９．１１．４

飛行機
２０１２．２．２２

２０１４．１．１５

2011.3.11 : 大津波

橙色: アマモ場
黄緑色: ガラモ場

どのような人手のかけ方がアマモ場の復活を助けるか？
漁民・行政と議論

小松ら (2014)

捕食者として 2500の人間活動 2000の停止による 1500
1000
爆発的増加
500
の可能性
0

岩手
宮城

2000

600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2005

2010

2015

ウニ

岩手
宮城

エゾアワビ
2000

2005

2010

2015

震災前後のウニとエゾアワビの年漁獲量の変化

日本海班：研究課題
テーマ1：日本海沿岸域の環境変動メカニズムの解明
日本海沿岸域の海洋環境への東シナ海からの負荷、日本の陸域からの負荷の影響度を明らかにし、日本海沿岸域の環境変動・物質循環メカニズムを解明する。

テーマ2：対馬暖流影響メカニズムの解明及び将来変動予測
対馬暖流やその上流域の環境変動が日本海沿岸域の海洋環境に及ぼす影響を数値モデルを用いて予測する。

テーマ3：日本海沿岸域の環境変動が高次生態系に及ぼす影響の解明
日本海沿岸域の環境変動に伴う、高次生態系の応答を生態系モデルを活用して明らかにし、日本海沿岸域の生物多様性への脅威として重要な要因を解明する。

テーマ4：海洋保護区を活用した陸海統合管理手法の開発
対馬暖流域に位置する海洋保護区において、従来の制度や管理と市民・漁民参加型の管理を組み合わせた新たな管理手法を開発し、そのネットワーク化による効果を推定する。

テーマ5：対馬暖流域国際共同監視システムの検討
日本海沿岸域への影響を未然に防止することを目的とした、対馬暖流域国際共同監視シス
テムについて、NOWPAP等の枠組の活用を念頭に置いて検討する。

イカの産卵場(水深・水温で決まる)

半年後の分布
(水温・ chl.aで決まる)

いつ、どこを MPAにすれば最も効果的か ?
郭ら (2014)

社会・人文科学班：
政策支援ツ－ルとしての社会経済モデル
１）生態系サービスの貨幣価値
２）サステイナビリテイ評価とICM
３）三段階沿岸海域管理システム構築
４）管理主体： 行政 → 住民
５）人文科学的考察に基づく、99.8%の市民と海を結ぶ里海物語• 政策支援ツールとしての自然・社会・人文科学
統合モデル（総括班と共同）

Seto Inland Sea

回答数

1,689

Sanriku coast

Japan Sea

1,284

1,449

質問 「この沿岸海域はあなたにとって大切か？」
三か所の答えの違いの理由を明らかにする
このような情報が最適の協議会を設置する空間スケールを決めるのに有益
仲上ら (2014)

利害関係者ICM（沿岸域統合管理）のための三段階協議会
日高 (2014)

統合的沿岸海域モデル実施のフロー
２６年度

大阪湾 透明度・DO

播磨灘 栄養塩・ノリ

広島湾 カキ

洞海湾 貧酸素

テーマ１

テーマ５

２７年度

テーマ１

瀬戸内海 転送効率モデル

テーマ５

２８年度

テーマ２

志津川湾
山田湾 最適養殖モデル

社会・人文科学の研究成果 テーマ４

自然・社会統合モデル“見える化” テーマ３

テーマ５

２９年度

現地の観測結果

志津川湾モデル流域の社会科学情報

テーマ２

テーマ４

“森－里－川－海 物質輸送モデル”
人の暮らしのあり方
３０年度

テーマ５

1950年と2050年の瀬戸内海モデル“自然科学、社会・人文科学統合モデル”「きれいで、豊かで、賑わいのある持続可能な沿岸海域」の実現のための行政施策に反映

TN・TP負荷量と貧酸素水塊の経年変動

貧酸素水塊

2006 9/5

depth (m)1994 8/31

depth (m)DO

TN・TP 負荷

Stn.1

観測点

2011 9/824672019/7/19

5

3

消滅

depth (m)縮小

15

1997.8.21（DO、Chl-a）
観測

DO

Chl-a

2019/7/19

DO

計算

Chl-a

16

2011.9.8（DO、Chl-a）
観測
servation

DO

Chl-a

2019/7/19

DO

計算

Chl-a

17

貧酸素が消滅するプロセスとして、以下が考えられる。
① 有機物負荷量の削減 → 底層への有機物フラックスの抑制（分解の抑制、底質浄化）② 栄養塩負荷量の削減 → 赤潮の抑制 → 底層への有機物フラックスの抑制（分解の抑制、底質浄化）

DO fluxes in the middle and bottom layers
0.1

1997
基準ケース
ケース1
負荷削減
ケース2
負荷・底泥酸素消費削減

×10^3 (mg/sec)

0.05
0

POM DOM decomposition
底泥酸
POM
decomposition
denitrification respiration
分解
素消費
SOD
Photosynthesis

光合成

-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
2019/7/19

1997
18

総括班
• 激動する世界の中での沿岸海域管理哲学構築（人間と海、保全と利用、タンパク源確保）
自然・社会・人文科学• 望ましい沿岸海域の定量的環境指標（透明度、底層DO、干潟・藻場面積、栄養塩濃度。。）
現場研究・モデル• その指標を実現するために必要な施策
協議会・研究結果の見える化• 持続可能性の指標
沿岸域人口動態（社会・人文科学班）• 政策支援ツールとしての統合モデル
自然・社会・人文科学モデル

Future Earth (2015-2024) by ICSU••

Sustainability → Futurability
未来可能性
Natural, Social and Cultural Sciences → Trans-disciplinary Science → Design Science“What is the future earth?”
領域融合研究•Integrated knowledge

知の統合

設計科学

広島湾カキ養殖

2004-2013 計算してカキ水揚げ量を再現

組み合わせCase1-3+Case2-3

課題
身入りの違いによる値段の違い
収益としてどのCaseが最適か？