Where Next?
And, How To Get There?
Ray Poynter
JMRA Annual Conference 2017

The Planning Cycle

Stephen King Planning Cycle“A Master Class in Brand Planning: The Timeless Works of Stephen King”

Research is Growing and Changing$62 Billion$65 Billion$69 Billion$72 Billion

2931

24

27

38

384040

2013

2014

2015

2016

Traditionally Defined Research

New Research

Soon, more than 50% of market research will be non-traditional
US$ Billions, all values expressed in terms of 2015 exchange rates

No More Surveys?
2010, at UK MRS, I forecast surveys as we know them today would have disappearedby 2030. In 2010, projects using Surveys = 56% of all Market Research spend, globally.
ESOMAR GMRSurvey

Qual

Other Net

2007

51%

14%

35%

201056%

13%

31%

2013

53%

17%

30%

2016

46%

17%

37%

2020 est.

39%

17%

44%

2030 est

20%

20%

60%

Figures show mode % of Global Total MR spend, US $• Surveys are in decline in market research• But, they will remain a major tool for several years

North America Dominates

New software and companies need to be big in
North America or/and Europe to be a major player英語 Dominates
Top 8 Countries by Turnover
USA19,487

UK6,642Germany

2,767

France

2,334

Japan

1,891

China

1,884

Australia

791

Rest of World

8,715

Most new methods/software are launched in
English, and need to succeed in USA.
ESOMAR GMR 2017, Revenue in US $Data Companies Dominate
Top 10 Research Companies
Nielsen6,309

Kantar3,505

Quintiles

3,301

Gartner

2,445

IPSOS

1,783

GFK

1,484

Iri

1,027
Mostly data

Westat521

Intage430

Mostly Surveys & Qual

Dunhumby

429

Combined

Growth is happening in new methods and many ofthe largest companies are data focused.
ESOMAR GMR 2017, Revenue in US $Innovative Brands
RankCompanyNotes

1

System 1 Research (Brainjuicer)

Consultancy / Storytelling (UK)

2

Ipsos

Traditional (France)

3

NielsenTraditional / Data (USA)

4

OdinText

Text Analytics (USA)5

InSites Consultancy

Consultancy / Storytelling (Belgium)

6

Research Now

Access panel (merging with SSI) (USA)7

GfK

Traditional (Germany)

8

Kantar Group

Traditional / Data (UK)9

ZappiStore

Automated MR (UK)

10

LRW

Traditional (USA)23

MacromillTraditional (Japan)

30

IntageTraditional (Japan)

1. Innovative companies are more likely to be traditional than data.
2. Data companies are growing without attracting attention.
GreenBook GRIT study Quarter 1, 2017

Emerging Technologies
Technology
Online Communities
Mobile First Surveys
Webcam-Based Interviews
Text Analytics
Mobile Qualitative
Social Media Analytics
Big Data Analytics
Mobile Ethnography
Eye Tracking
Micro-surveys

In Use
60%
50%
47%
46%
44%
43%
39%
35%
34%
34%

Technology
Behavioral Economics Models
Research Gamification
Applied Neuroscience methods
Facial analysis
Prediction Markets
Crowdsourcing
Internet of Things
Biometric Response
Virtual Environments/VR
Sensor/Usage/Telemetry Data

Main trends: Mobile, data, communities
Smaller trends: Special hardware, non-standard interviews
GreenBook GRIT Survey, Q4 – data will be published later December 2017

In Use
29%
25%
21%
20%
19%
15%
12%
12%
11%
11%

The Rise in Automation
In use/piloting
Analysis of Survey Data
Charts & Infographics
Text Analysis
Social Media Analysis
Sampling
Survey Design
Online qual moderation
Analys Image/VideoReport Writing
Project Design
Attribution Analytics
Biometric/non-conscious
BaseGreenBook GRIT Q1 2017

Global
56%
56%
53%
46%
42%
41%
37%
36%
32%
30%
26%
25%

Japan
39%
46%
48%
33%
37%
35%
20%
29%
41%
13%
15%
22%

258354Difference
17%
10%
5%
13%
5%
6%
16%
8%
-9%
17%
12%
3%

The Rise in Automation
In use/piloting
Analysis of Survey Data
Charts & Infographics
Text Analysis
Social Media Analysis
Sampling
Survey Design
Online qual moderation
Analys Image/Video
Report Writing
Project Design
Attribution Analytics
Biometric/non-conscious
BaseGreenBook GRIT Q1 2017

Global
56%
56%
53%
46%
42%
41%
37%
36%
32%
30%
26%
25%

Japan
39%
46%
48%
33%
37%
35%
20%
29%
41%
13%
15%
22%

2583

54

Difference
17%
10%
5%
13%
5%
6%
16%
8%
-9%
17%
12%
3%

The Key Drivers of MR Demand
1. Speed
Clients need results fast, and with faster results we seemore evidence-based decision making

2. CostThis has always been an issue, nothing new here

3. Agile
More test and learn, more rapid assembling fromstandardised components (think Lego)

4. Quality
Quality is only important in MR when the current
offering is not good enough.

Where Are We?
• Traditional market research isgrowing, but growing slowly• New types of research are growing, faster thantraditional• The MR world is dominated by English-speaking
products, methods, companies, conferences,journals etc• MR is splitting into two parts, data/automationand consultancy/storytelling• Clients need either support or self-explanatory
systems

Where Are We?

NewMR Benchmark Survey 2017
Techniques Not Understood

Homophily
100%
90%

Net Promoter Score
(NPS)

80%

Grounded Theory

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%

Predictive Analytics

Implicit Association
Testing (IAT)

20%
10%
0%

Internet of Things(IoT)

System 1 and 2thinking

Augmented Reality
Global (n=587)

Semiotics
Japan (n=148)

Why are We Here?
• The speed of business is getting
faster, clients have less time
• There has been a massive growth in options– New techniques, new technology, new thinking• Clients are less skilful at research methods– Because they are more busy and there are many newmethods• Traditional research has focused on surveys andfocus groups– Allowing competitors to focus on data andDIY/Automation

Why are We Here?

The rise of digital and information underpins the last 20 years.
The world has changed faster than most of the market research world.

Why are We Here?

NewMR Benchmark Survey 2017
Developmental Events in 2017

The percentage of researchers attending ZERO events in 201738%

Attend Conference

51%
34%

Training session/workshop

52%

Business books read

Japan

31%
15%

Webinars listened toResearch articles read

Global

17%

68%
3%
14%

Where Could We Be?

Where Could We Be?
1. We could stay as traditional MR,
growing slowly, or declining slowly
2. We could become part of BI (business intelligence)–

Perhaps by being bought by BI companies

3. We could focus on new types of research–

Analytics, data integration, solutions, and consultancy

4. We could focus on being consultants and storytellers–

Which would mean we become a smaller, but possibly
happier/more profitable

Where Could Japan Be?
1. We could stay as traditional MR,growing slowly, or declining slowly
2. We could become a much bigger international player–

Enabling strong growth in Japanese MR revenue

3. We could become part of BI (business intelligence)–

Perhaps by being bought by BI companies

4. We could focus on new types of research–

Analytics, data integration, solutions, and consultancy

5. We could focus on being consultants and storytellers–

Which would mean we become a smaller, but possibly
happier/more profitable

How Could We Get There

How Could We Get There• Global focus• The Data & Consultancy split• Automation• Artificial Intelligence & IntelligenceAugmentation• The people we need for market research• Ethics• Be alert to changeGlobal Focus
Borrow from USA

Compete with USA

Follow the money

The Data & Consultancy Split

The research industry is splitting into:
1) Data (including DIY and Automated research).
2) Consultancy and Storytelling.
The industry needs both, large companies need both, clients need both.

AutomationAutomation is not a single change, it is a process that will take 10 or 20 years.

MR needs flexible tools, that will link together, to create agile solutions.

Artificial Intelligence& Intelligence Augmentation

The People We Need in MR
1. Management Consultants

2. Specialists
3. Polymaths

Developed by Simon Chadwick,founder of Cambiar and Editorof ESOMAR Research World

Ethics• Facebook and Twitter issues:– USA/UK political mischief– Great Firewall of China• GDPR – General Data Protection Regulation– European new law, from May 2018
– Applies to anybody selling into and buying from EU• Trade bodies continuously updating guidelines– National and international• What confidence can we offer to end clients thatthese new research techniques actually work?

Be Alert to Change

Are We Getting There?
• Yes, a little bit• Japanese brands appearing on more international
lists (e.g. ESOMAR & GreenBook)• More Japanese brands at international events– Having stands– Presenting papers (e.g. Coca-Cola and L’Oreal)• Some use of new platforms– E.g. ZappiStore and Vision Critical• New initiatives, e.g. mobile market research• But, there is a long way to goBig Picture• Traditional Research is yesterday– New methods are the future• Dichotomy emerging– Data / DIY / Automation / AI– Consultancy and Storytelling• The tide of change is mostly English• The key priorities are (usually):
1.
2.
3.
4.

Speed
Cost
Agile
QualityThank You

Questions?