Identified needs of offenders incustody and the community fromthe Offender Assessment System,
30 June 2018
Ad Hoc Statistics

Published July 2019

Contents

1.

Rationale........................................................................................................................ 22.

Background, Methodology and Coverage ...................................................................... 2

3.

Key Findings .................................................................................................................. 44.

Notes and Glossary ....................................................................................................... 6

List of Supplementary Products ............................................................................................ 8
Further information .............................................................................................................. 10
Contact ............................................................................................................................... 10

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1. Rationale
To better understand the needs of offenders who receive custody and community disposals,
to inform the evidence base for reforming short custodial sentences this ad hoc statisticalrelease publishes management information from the Offender Assessment System (OASys).
This information sets out identified needs of offenders serving both shorter and longer
custodial sentences, as well as community orders. In the short term the evidence informs thedevelopment of policy to reform short custodial sentences. This information will be beneficial
for the development of policies around managing offenders, both in and out of custody.

2. Background, Methodology and Coverage
This publication profiles Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service’s (HMPPS) caseload ona given date: 30 June 2018. It is based on a dataset that combines four major data sources:
the probation case management system (nDelius), the prison case management system (PNomis), the Ministry of Justice’s analytical extract from the Police National Computer (PNC)
and the Offender Assessment System (OASys). To create this dataset, caseload listingsfrom nDelius and P-Nomis are first combined and deduplicated, as most prisoners are also
listed on nDelius. Where individuals have concurrent sentences listed on nDelius, the mostrecent is retained. Variables from this combined file are then used to match individuals on
the data to the PNC records, and to retrieve criminal history information, comprising all
offences that resulted in a conviction, caution or equivalent sanction (e.g. reprimands andfinal warnings in the youth justice system) on or before 30 June 2018. Similarly, OASys
variables are then matched to the data set for offenders with an OASys assessment. For
those who have been assessed, the most recent Layer 3 (full) assessment is retained.
OASys coverage is defined by having a complete Layer 3 assessment out of the total
caseload. Coverage rate varies across different sentence types and lengths as follows:•
OASys coverage for offenders in custody - is most comprehensive for those serving
extended determinate and indeterminate sentences, and those recalled to custody where
OASys information is available for over 90% of individuals in these groups.
•
Coverage is also high for determinate custodial sentences of four years or longer(78%), while the coverage level is below two-thirds (64%) of those serving under 4 years incustody. OASys is not typically used during custodial sentences of under 12 months
duration, and while coverage levels remain above 50% for this group, many of the assessedindividuals were assessed during a previous sentence.
•In the community, OASys coverage exceeds 75% of those on long (2+ year)
community orders and on licence from custody. OASys coverage is lowest (below 50%) for
those serving community orders or suspended sentence orders of 12 to under 18 months
duration. Many of these individuals have sentence requirements without a primarily
rehabilitative component, and therefore may be assessed only with Layer 1 OASys, which
does not include a criminogenic need assessment. Some individuals serving thesesentences have been allocated to Community Rehabilitation which have chosen to use
alternative risk assessment systems which different items.
An acceptable coverage rate adopted in this publication is where at least 50% of thecaseload have had an OASys layer 3 assessment in either their current or previous
sentence. Results are indicative, based on those with a full OASys assessment and2

inferences should not be made about those without an assessment, and therefore care must
be taken when interpreting results where coverage is lower or where numbers are small1.
There are eight criminogenic needs measuring factors linked to offending behaviour which
are assessed using the OASys; Accommodation, Employability, Relationships, Lifestyle,
Drug misuse, Alcohol misuse, Thinking & Behaviour, and Attitudes, and three additional‘responsivity measures’ that are used to aid practitioners in how an offender may respond tosupport. The three responsivity measures are: learning disability and challenges, mental
health conditions and indicator of low maturity levels2.

1 Counts of people of 5 or less are suppressed
2 The clinical rule for the indicator of low levels of maturity is generally flagged for males aged 18-25 only.

33. Key Findings•

Of those with OASys layer 3 assessments3, those in custody were more likely to haveneeds than those in the community, in seven of the eight OASys needs areas, alcohol
needs were slightly higher for those in the community than in custody (20% vs 17%).

•

In custody, offenders had an average of 4.89 criminogenic needs per person, comparedwith 3.73 needs per person in the community.

•

Lifestyle needs were the most prevalent in both custody (84%) and community (65%).
This OASys section includes issues such as reckless and risk-taking behaviour, being
influenced by criminal peers, and having lifestyle, associates or conducting in activities
that encourage offending4,•

Alcohol misuse needs were least prevalent both in custody (17%) and the community(20%).

•Of prisoners on determinate sentences, those serving sentences of 12 months or less(where coverage was 62%) had a higher proportion of needs than those serving longer
sentences or compared to those in the community in all 8 needs areas.

•

The majority of those serving custodial sentences of 12 months or less had lifestyle(85%), attitudes (85%), thinking & behaviour (78%)5, relationships (76%), employability(70%) and accommodation needs (59%).

•

Those serving a sentence of 6 months or less (where coverage was 63%) had a higher
prevalence of needs than those sentenced to over 6 months to up to and including 12months (where coverage was 60%) across 7 out of 8 needs areas (lifestyle needs had
equal prevalence across sentence lengths). The greatest differences are seen in drug
misuse needs (68% compared with 59%) and alcohol misuse needs (35% comparedwith 30%). These are the highest proportions seen across all other sentence lengths andtypes in custody and the community.

•

Those on recall had the highest prevalence of accommodation (72%), employability(78%), lifestyle (93%) and attitudes needs (93%), compared with all other custodial andcommunity sentence types and lengths.

•

Females assessed in custody had a higher average number of needs per person (5.05)
than males in custody (4.88), and higher than both females (3.81) and males (3.72) inthe community.

•

Females in custody had a higher prevalence of relationship needs (80%) than males incustody (69%), as well as accommodation (64% compared to 56%), drugs (50%compared to 45%), alcohol (22% compared to 17% and employability needs (66%compared to 62%). Males had a higher prevalence of attitudes, thinking and lifestyleneeds than females in custody.

•

The 18-20 age group had 5.26 needs per person in custody and 4.07 in the community.
The needs per person decreases with age, regardless of whether they are in custody orin the community

3 Where numbers or proportions are given, these refer to the population with a layer 3 OASys assessment.
4 See glossary for question examples for each criminogenic need.
5 See Glossary4•Those with a higher risk of reoffending had a higher prevalence of need. Almost all of
those who were assessed on custodial sentences of 12 months or less and were aprolific risk of reoffending6 (coverage: 86%) had an attitudes need (96%), and 95% alifestyle need. This compares with 45% of those serving short sentences with a low riskof reoffending (for both lifestyle and attitudes).

•The majority (91%) of those assessed who were on custodial sentences of 12 months orless and with 15 or more previous cautions (although coverage is 26% for this group) or
convictions had a lifestyle need and an attitudes need, compared with 80% of those
assessed on Community Orders or Suspended Sentence Orders (coverage 67% and
70% respectively), and compared to 57% of First Time Entrants in custody (coverage64%7).

Figure 1: Adult criminogenic needs by sentence type and length from OASys
assessments taken on or before 30 June 2018.

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Reoffending risk scores are the product of a logistic regression, to predict a proven reoffence within 2 years
where "low risk" is a 0-24% chance of reoffending, "Medium" 25-49%, "High" 50-74%, "Very high" 75%-89%
and "Prolific" 90%+. Logistic regression is calculated using Age, gender, current offence and criminal history.
Risk of Violent reoffending is calculated by also looking at the number of previous violent offences
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Coverage is not high enough to make robust conclusions about those serving sentences of 12 months or lessand with less previous cautions or convictions.

54. Notes and Glossary
There are eight criminogenic needs measured in OASys: which are linked to offending
behaviour (Accommodation, Employability, Relationships, Lifestyle, Drugs Misuse, Alcohol
Misuse, Thinking & Behaviour and Attitudes).
Three responsivity measures are also derived from OASys variables (Learning Disability andChallenges, low psychosocial maturity and mental health issues), that are used for the aid ofpractitioners and which may affect how an offender responds to support for theircriminogenic needs (e.g. somebody with a learning disability may require support materials
to be provided in a different format in order to benefit from them).

Criminogenic Needs
All needs are derived from numbered questions on the OASys. Each question is scored from0 to 2 (some being either 0/2 or 0/1/2) with 0 denoting ‘no need’, 1 ‘some need’ and 2‘severe need’. Each need has a maximum score, and a need is identified when the scoreexceeds a cut-off (see table below).
Criminogenic need

Scored questions

Scale range

Cut-off

Accommodation

3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6

0-8

2+

Employment

4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5

0-8

3+

Relationships

6.1, 6.3, 6.6

0-6

2+

Lifestyle & associates

7.2, 7.3, 7.5

0-6

2+

Drug misuse

8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 8.8, 8.9

0-10

2+

Alcohol misuse

9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5

0-8

4+

Thinking & behaviour

11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9

0-8

4+

Attitudes

12.1, 12.4, 12.5, 12.8

0-8

2+

Accommodation Need: Questions include: No Fixed Abode (NFA) or transient, suitability ofaccommodation, permanence of accommodation, suitability of location of accommodation,accommodation linked to offending behaviour and accommodation linked to risk of serious
harm. Cut off is 2+ and a score of 2 on Question 3.3 of an OASys assessment (No Fixed
Abode or Transient), causes the other questions on Accommodation to be scored 2 as well.
This would be an automatic flag of an accommodation need. There is no equivalent to this in
any other questions.
Employability Need: Questions include: Unemployment, employment history, work-related
skills, attitude to employment, reading, writing and numeracy, employment related tooffending behaviour.
Relationships Need: Questions include: Relationships with family, childhood experience,
relationship with partner, previous relationship experience, domestic violence: perpetrator or
victim, parental responsibilities, relationships related to offending behaviour.
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Lifestyle Need: Questions include: Activities that encourage offending, influenced bycriminal peers, recklessness/risk taking behaviour, lifestyle and associates linked tooffending behaviour.
Drugs Need: Questions include: Current drug misuse, level of use of main drug, injecting
drugs, motivation to tackle drugs, drugs major part of lifestyle, drugs linked to offending
behaviour.
Alcohol Need: Questions include: Current alcohol misuse, binge drinking, previous alcoholuse, motivation to tackle alcohol use, alcohol linked to offending behaviour.
Thinking Need: Questions include: Interpersonal skills, impulsivity, temper control, problem
recognition, problem solving, awareness of consequences, understands others’ views,
thinking and behaviour linked to offending behaviour.
Attitudes Need: Questions include: Pro-criminal attitudes, attitude to supervisions, attitude
to community/society, motivation to reduce offending, attitudes linked to offending behaviour.

Responsivity Measures
Learning Disability and Challenge, Mental Health Problem, and an Indicator of low maturity8.

Notes
Data for this publication comes from large administrative databases containing information
about individual offenders in England and Wales in both their past and current sentences,volumes from this data source may not match data published elsewhere due to definitional
differences used between publications and administrative recording systems.
Results should be interpreted with caution and are indicative only.
Every effort is made to ensure that the figures presented are accurate and complete.
However, it is important to note that these data have been extracted from large
administrative data systems from the OASys, Police National Computer and NOMIS. As aconsequence, care should be taken to ensure data collection processes and their inevitable
limitations are taken into account when those data are used.
Reoffending risk is calculated using the OASys Violence Predictor (OVP) which covers
violence against the person, weapons, robbery, criminal damage and public order (‘violenttype’) offences and the OASys General Reoffending Predictor (OGP) which covers othernon-sexual (“general”) offences. Both OGP and OVP contain a mix of static and dynamic risk
factors, with statistical analyses used to identify which OASys questions were most strongly
associated with reoffending. OGP’s static scoring is based on OGRS39 while OVP’s scoring
gives extra weight to sanctions for violent-type offences. The total OGP and OVP scores
range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating a higher likelihood of proven reoffending.

8 The indicator for low level of maturity is for the aid of practitioners, and the clinical rule is that this is flagged formales aged 18-25 only
9

For more information about the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), please see chapter 8 of
the publication at:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449357/researc
h-analysis-offender-assessment-system.pdf

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List of Supplementary Products
Tables published alongside this bulletin cover criminogenic needs by sentence length andtype (custodial/community), age, sex, reoffending risk (any reoffending and violent
reoffending), and criminal history:

Table 1a: Identified adult needs by custodial sentence length, sex and need, from OASys
Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 1b: Identified adult needs by community sentence, sex and need, from OASys
Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 2a: Identified adult needs by custodial sentence length, age group and need, from
OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 2b: Identified adult needs by community sentence, age group and need, from OASys
Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 3a: Identified adult needs by custodial sentence length, by any reoffending risk andneed, from OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 3b: Identified adult needs by community sentence, by any reoffending risk and need,from OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 4a: Identified adult needs by custodial sentence length, by violent reoffending risk andneed, from OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 4b: Identified adult needs by community sentence, by violent reoffending risk andneed, from OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 5a: Identified adult needs by custodial sentence length, criminal history and need,from OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018
Table 5b: Identified adult needs by community sentence, criminal history and need, from
OASys Assessments taken from 30 June 2018

A CSV file of people with criminogenic needs by offence and sentence length and type(custodial/community) as at 30 June 2018 is also published alongside this bulletin.

8Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
The Code of Practice for Statistics is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:•••

Trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations
that publish statistics
Quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics
Value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs

The following explains how MoJ have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.
Trustworthiness
The figures presented in this ad hoc statistical publication were created following interest
from MoJ ministers and inform the evidence base underpinning departmental thinking
around the development of policy. They are being published now in order to give equal
access to all those with an interest in them.
MoJ analysts work to a professional competency framework and Civil Service core values ofintegrity, honesty, objectivity, and impartiality. The analysis in this release has been
scrutinised and received sign-off by the expert lead analyst.
We protect the security of our data in order to maintain the privacy of the citizen, fulfil
relevant legal obligations and uphold our obligation that no statistics will be produced thatare likely to identify an individual, while at the same time taking account of our obligation to
obtain maximum value from the data we hold for statistical purposes. All analysts are given
security training and the majority of data accessed by analysts is obfuscated and access isbusiness case controlled based to the minimum data required.
Quality
The data which underpins this information is taken directly and solely from departmental
systems, which are relied upon by MoJ for effective offender management. Quality
assurance has taken place in line with the standards usually applied to MoJ ad hoc releases,
with an internal check that the results shown are robust, and a true representation of theneeds of offenders who receive custody and community disposals.
Value
Releasing this information serves the increased public interest in the needs of offenders
being managed in the justice system. The figures also help reduce the administrative burdenof answering Parliamentary Questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms ofad hoc enquiry.

9Further information
Contact
Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:Tel: 020 3334 3536
Email: newsdesk@justice.gov.uk
Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical
Services division of the Ministry of Justice:David Blunt
Chief Statistician
Ministry of Justice
7th Floor
102 Petty France
LondonSW1H 9AJ
Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk

General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to:statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk
General information about the official statistics system of the UK is available from:statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/uk-statistical-system© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk.

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