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Don’t downsize your dreams

How investors can guard against lasting
inflation
2021/11/04

  Summary
How can investors reposition their portfolios in the face of a persistent rise in consumer price inflation? Inpart two of a two-part paper, we share the results of our proprietary analysis into the asset classes thatmay provide an optimal inflation hedge.
Key takeaways:
Given our view that inflation is set to last longer than many market watchers expect, we conducted
our own analysis into how different asset classes performed in a range of inflation environments
Our research found that with moderate inflation (2%-4%), equities were the top-performing asset
class, and sovereign and corporate bonds both generated decent positive annual real returns
Perhaps surprisingly to those who consider gold to be the ultimate hedge against inflation, gold’sreturns were mixed across different inflationary environments
Commodities consistently generated solid positive returns in times of high and rising inflation, but
their longer-term outlook may be obscured by the transition away from fossil fuels

In our view, global central banks and many investors underestimate the probability that consumer price inflation may turn out higher than expected and last
longer than currently priced into financial markets. While we don’t foresee a return to the price environment of the 1970s, we think medium-term inflation risks
are nevertheless skewed to the upside, and we may see a more regular overshooting of central banks’ inflation targets over time. This is contrary to the consensus
scenario (and the view of most central banks) that the rise in inflation is just a temporary phenomenon – a perspective that we think is a bit too sanguine. To learn
more about the eight factors driving inflation higher, read Inflation: beyond transitory.
As a result, we believe investors should take a closer look at how their portfolios are positioned to hedge against inflation. In seeking to determine some of theoptimal ways to provide this hedge, we conducted our own in-depth analysis of a range of asset classes. Explore the four sections below to see the results of ourfindings.

表示 

1. How can inflation affect bond and equity prices?



2. What are the most attractive inflation hedges?

2. What are the most attractive inflation hedges?



3. What are the top implications for investors?



4. Appendix: Want a closer look at four key findings from our research?

 FIND OUT MORE ABOUT THE EIGHT FACTORS DRIVING INFLATION HIGHER DOWNLOAD THE PDF VERSION

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Equities have tended to be volatile, and do notoffer a fixed rate of return. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bondstrategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bond prices will normally decline as interest rates rise. The impact may be greater with longer-duration bonds. Credit risk reflects theissuer’s ability to make timely payments of interest or principal—the lower the rating, the higher the risk of default. Investments in commodities may be affected by overall market movements,changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, and international economic and political developments. Past performance is not indicative of futureperformance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any
security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived
from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from theiruse. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks
under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document does not constitute a public offer by virtue of Act Number 26.831 of theArgentine Republic and General Resolution No. 622/2013 of the NSC. This communication's sole purpose is to inform and does not under any circumstance constitute promotion or publicity ofAllianz Global Investors products and/or services in Colombia or to Colombian residents pursuant to part 4 of Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication does not in any way aim to directly or
indirectly initiate the purchase of a product or the provision of a service offered by Allianz Global Investors. Via reception of his document, each resident in Colombia acknowledges andaccepts to have contacted Allianz Global Investors via their own initiative and that the communication under no circumstances does not arise from any promotional or marketing activities
carried out by Allianz Global Investors. Colombian residents accept that accessing any type of social network page of Allianz Global Investors is done under their own responsibility andinitiative and are aware that they may access specific information on the products and services of Allianz Global Investors. This communication is strictly private and confidential and may notbe reproduced. This communication does not constitute a public offer of securities in Colombia pursuant to the public offer regulation set forth in Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication andthe information provided herein should not be considered a solicitation or an offer by Allianz Global Investors or its affiliates to provide any financial products in Brazil, Panama, Peru, andUruguay. In Australia, this material is presented by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited (“AllianzGI AP”) and is intended for the use of investment consultants and otherinstitutional/professional investors only, and is not directed to the public or individual retail investors. AllianzGI AP is not licensed to provide financial services to retail clients in Australia.
AllianzGI AP (Australian Registered Body Number 160 464 200) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Foreign Financial Service License under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)pursuant to ASIC Class Order (CO 03/1103) with respect to the provision of financial services to wholesale clients only. AllianzGI AP is licensed and regulated by Hong Kong Securities andFutures Commission under Hong Kong laws, which differ from Australian laws.
This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities andExchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, distributor registered with FINRA, is affiliated with Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, aninvestment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors (Schweiz) AG; Allianz Global Investors Asia
Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration
No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau(Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Investment Trust Association, Japan]; and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd.,
licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan.

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