The future of road safety:
a worldwide perspective
Global Interactive Forum on Traffic & Safety 2015

Tokyo, 28 November 2015
Fred Wegman, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Transport & PlanningTraditional road safety approach:go fishing where the fish are, ….
• Analyse road safety data
• Look for high risks, high proportions, high increases• e.g. novice drivers, elderly road users, powered twowheelers, high-risk locations

Go fishing where the fish are, ….
Why high risks(‘spike in distribution’)?
- How to reduce risks?
Serious injuries / billion passenger*kilometres

-400

Males
300

Females

200

100

00-5

6-11

12-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-64 65-74
Age category (years)

75 +Effective interventions in traditional
areas (‘evidence based interventions’)• Human behaviour (legislation + enforcement/campaigns)• Speed, alcohol, seat belts and safety helmets• Driver education, schools, mass-media campaigns• Infrastructure: planning, high risk roads, safe designs• Vehicles: crashworthiness, vehicle inspection, special
attention for trucks/buses and powered two wheelers• Post-crash response: emergency• Always new developments: such as drugs, mobile phones,
ageing societyReduction in fatalities in ITF/IRTADcountries (2000-2013)

Road fatalities per 100 000 populationin ITF/IRTAD countries in 2013

Why does road safety improve when
economic times are hard?
• IRTAD-report (2015)• Clear evidence: when economic growth declines,
road safety improves• Statistical analysis (correlation-study; 14 countries,2009-2010) suggests that economic downturn havecontributed to about two-thirds of observed roadfatality reduction• ‘Explanation’: fewer kilometres and safer kilometers• Consolidate good safety results in the past, soundroad safety policies need to be intensified

Go fishing where the fish are, but ….
• Look for high risks, high proportions, high increases• e.g. novice drivers, elderly road users, powered twowheelers, high-risk locations• We were (relatively) successful in fishing where thefishes are, but …

However, road traffic injuries
worldwide is still a major problem

Road crashes worldwide
1.25 million people killed per year in a road crash
90% of road deaths occur in LMICs
Leading causes of death: 9th in 2004 to 5th in 2030
Up to 50 million people suffer non-fatal injuries in a roadcrash; prevention of injuries deserves to be an
integrated part of every road safety strategy• If we do nothing, we may expect an increase, especiallyin LMICs, up to 1.9 million road fatalities in 2020••••

• Sources: World Health Organization and the World Bank

Prediction on road traffic fatalities:
from 1.2 million in 2010 to 1.9 in 2020
300%South Asia
250%

Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America &Caribbean
Europe & Central
Asia
Global Total

200%
150%
100%
50%

High-income
0%20002020

Target: ‘halving number of fatalities
worldwide in 10/5 years time’SDG’s including improving road safety• Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being
for all at all ages
• 3.6 By 2020, halve the number of global deaths and injuries fromroad traffic accidents

SDG’s including improving road safety• Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable• 11.2 By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible andsustainable transport systems for all, improving road safety, notably
by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs ofthose in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons withdisabilities and older persons

Improving road safety in high-income,and in low- and middle-income
countries• Which are next steps in HICs?
• Which are first/next steps in LMICs?
• HICs: quality improvements of traditional approach +start of Safe System approach, e.g. in Japan• LMICs: Analyse road safety problems, learn from HICs
(if appropriate) and speed up improvements, butadapt HIC-solutions to own problems and conditions

Results after implementing 50 yearsof road safety policies in HICs
• Dutch (traditional) approach was very successful: 1972
3264 road deaths, 2014 564; ~ 80% reduction• Our traditional approach is becoming less and lesseffective and less and less efficient (80-20 rule)• The nature of our problems is different than in the past
• Our understanding of causes of crashes improved• A paradigm shift was/is needed: towards Safe System(Dutch: Sustainable Safety; Sweden: Vision Zero;
Australia: Safe System)Our road traffic today is still inherently
dangerous

Our fundamental road safety problem• Today’s road traffic is inherently unsafe• The road system of today has not been designed withsafety in mind, as is the case with air/rail transport• Which means we are almost fully dependent on how
good a road user is in preventing a crash; however
human beings are making mistakes or errors• Reduce kinetic energy in a crash under tolerable levels• Another approach is needed: Safe System approachSafe System thinking:‘People are the measure of all things’
1. The road system should be designed to expect andaccomodate human error, because it is inevitable thatroad users make mistakes and sometimes violate thelaw (and crashes occur); this concept has been
accepted and implemented in other sectors oftransportation
2. In a crash, interaction between vehicle – roadway –human body must be managed so that serious injury
likelihood is minimized, if not eliminatedDesign of a Safe System• Deals with the ‘environment’ of the driver: road,vehicle, rules/legislation, ITS, etc.
• Its aim is to eliminate or at least substantially reduce
dangerous behaviour, resulting in crashes, by safe
system architecture• Basically tries to retrofit the existing environment, andto design new, inherently safe environments• This is an integral, system-wide approach (not just‘spikes in distributions’)Vision on road safety from a Safe
System perspective (I)• Ethical• We don’t want to hand over a traffic system to the next
generation with current casualty levels, but considerably less:Towards zero

• A proactive approach• There is no need to wait for crashes before to act; ‘we’ haveenough knowledge to be applied; adapt knowledge to local
conditions• People are the measure of all things• Human capacities and limitations are the guiding factors• Don’t blame the victim

Vision on road safety from a Safe
System perspective (II)• An integral/holistic approach• Integrate man, vehicle and road into a safe system• Covers the whole network, all vehicles, all road users• Align with other policy areas: infrastructure, planning, health,environment, etc.

• Reduce ‘system gaps’ of the system• Which means we will not be fully dependent on whether aroad user makes a mistake or an error in preventing a crash• Use criterion of preventable injuries• If we know the causes, if we know how to cure, if
interventions are cost-beneficial

Safe System approach: an example in
the Netherlands: Sustainable SafetyMore integral approach: roads,
vehicles, behaviour and … ITS• Safe System requires an integral approach: legislators,
road authorities, car manufacturers, police enforcement, ..?

Safe System approach and potential
ITS contributions: promising but ..
• Preventing risky road use• Interlocks for drinking and driving, driving licence, seatbelts, other smart-card applications• Influencing mobility choice• Preventing dangerous actions during traffic participation• Vehicle control support• Support for perception, interpretation, anticipation• Recognition of reduced task capability• Preventing unintentional and intentional rule violations

Next steps for high-income countries• High-income countries (with mature road safety policies
and an ambition to make further progress) will move inthe direction of a Safe System approach (a traditional
approach will come to the end of its lifecycle)• Safe System deals with human behaviour and creates anenvironment to make traffic considerably safer• New technologies will contribute more and more to
improve road safety, but it is not THE (only) solution• A strong leadership and active public sector withsustained efforts will make a differenceRoad safety policy ‘fabric’ for lowand middle-income countries• Political interest (national and local)• Road Safety Strategy incl. road safety targets +targeted programmes/action plans• Road safety community: dedicated and well-trained• Key stakeholders’ commitment orchestrated by a ‘leadagency’• Road safety research capacity• Advocacy work by many, such as ngo’s• Active and effective international community