Constructing theories of change
for ecosystem-based
adaptation projects
A guidance document
Conservation International
The Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Ecosystem
Science and Economics

[Type text]
Introduction

Despite considerable investment of time and resources over recent decades, there is limited knowledge
about the overall impact1 of adaptation efforts. This lack of certainty about effectiveness is due to alack of scientific evidence which clearly demonstrates that adaptation efforts lead to desired outcomesfor biodiversity, and due to little reporting or evaluation to generate better evidence. This issue only
increases in importance where adaptation interventions seek not only to improve outcomes for humanwellbeing, but also for biodiversity and ecosystems. Among such interventions with limited evidence areecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA2), a key strategy for addressing the adverse effects ofclimate change on vulnerable human communities through nature-based solutions.
To address this gap in evidence and to facilitate better decision making, consideration of monitoring andevaluation has rapidly increased in prominence across the conservation sector through the adoption oftools, methods and approaches from other sectors, in particular, public health, social work andeducation. One such tool, borrowed from community-based social change initiatives, is the theory ofchange approach which is a process used to support project planning and monitoring. This approachconceptualizes the overall goal for a project and the short, medium and long-term outcomes that are
required to lead the project to this end.
In this document we provide project managers a step-by-step guide to constructing a theory of changewith examples set in the context of Conservation International (CI)’s International Climate Initiative (IKI)
project that is designing and implementing EbA interventions in three countries. The theory of change
approach potentially has multiple benefits for application to EbA projects, including helping teams
balance multiple objectives, understand relationships between different objectives and interventions,and deal with the time lags required to observe ecological and social change.
This document is split into two main parts. The first outlines the basic concept of the theory of change
approach and its origins. It describes the key characteristics of the approach and the potential benefitsof its application to project planning and evaluation. The second part of this guidance document
outlines the steps to constructing a theory of change and practical recommendations for facilitating aworkshop for a project team on this process. The steps are illustrated with examples from a project
funded by BMU’s ICI that is implemented by CI. Further reading and additional resources related tofacilitation and development of theory of change models are provided in the Appendices.

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Terms highlighted in the text are defined in the Glossary in Box 1.
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) integrates the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy to help
people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. It includes the sustainable management, conservation and restorationof ecosystems to provide services that help people adapt to both current climate variability, and climate change.” CBD (2009)2

The Theory of Change approach
Definition and origins
The theory of change approach is a process of project planning and evaluation which maps therelationship between a long-term goal of a project and the intermediate and early changes that are
required to bring it about. It encourages a project team or group of stakeholders to explain how the
project is understood to reach its goals, and the process through which changes will occur. The
approach emphasizes the theory and assumptions underlying the pathway of change from theimplementation of selected interventions and activities to intended outcomes.
The theory of change approach originated in the social services sector and was developed to support
planning and evaluation of large-scale community change projects such as the delivery and effectivenessof family and child services. Community-based change initiatives often have ambitious goals and acomplex set of interventions, and a theory of change approach has helped project managers tounderstand how and why a program works.
It has broad relevance for natural resource management projects due to its capacity to deal withcomplex strategies, participatory format and flexibility to address different contexts.

PurposeA theory of change approach can serve multiple purposes at different stages of the project management
cycle including: For strategic planning in guiding goal-setting and selection of interventions; For validation of existing project plans, to check alignment of stated goals with proposed project
activities;
 As a communication tool to explain project priorities and management decisions; For evaluation, to assess progress of project interventions towards long-term goals.

Key characteristics
The theory of change approach is characterized by several key features that distinguish it from otherplanning or evaluation strategies, tools or methodologies:
 A structured and participatory process which guides project teams and/or groups of stakeholders toconceptualize and articulate the changes required to meet their long-term goals;
 Development of an outcomes framework - a mapping product that illustrates the intermediate
steps required to achieve long-term goals from a set of interventions; The identification of assumptions that explain what is required to achieve the changes required; Elaboration of a set of indicators that are specific enough to track changes;
 Elaboration of a set of activities required to achieve the intermediate and long-term goals of the
project
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Box 1. Glossary of key terms
TERMS

DEFINITIONS

Activity

Specific actions implemented to bring about each of the outputs or outcomeson the pathway to change

Assumption

Statements that explain both the connections between the preconditions forlong-term change that occur in the early and intermediate stages of the change
process, and the expectations about how and why proposed interventions willbring them about

Evidence

Existing scientific information used for supporting decision making

GoalStatements about what a project aims to achieve

ImpactThe overall contribution of outcomes to the achievement of goals that can be
attributed to a particular intervention

Indicator

Quantitative or qualitative variables used to assess change or occurrence of
outputs or outcomesIntervention

A process, often composed of multiple activities, implemented to reach thelong-term outcomes of a project

Outcome

The effects or changes to ecological or social systems that result from project
activities. The occurrence of specific outcomes, or preconditions, might berequired before achievement of long-term outcomes is able to occur

Outcomes framework

An illustration which maps the relationships between a variety of outcomesfrom activities in meeting long term goals. Some outcomes are precursors toachievement of long-term outcomes

OutputProducts or events produced by an activity

Pathway to change

A series of changes required to achieve long-term outcomes from
implementation of project activities

Project

A distinct strategy planned and designed to meet specific goal(s). It is generallycomposed of a range of interventions with multiple activities implemented
over the project timeframe

TargetA threshold or benchmark used to demonstrate progress or achievement of
success

Theory of change

A specific and measurable conceptual model of the goals, interventions,assumptions, and outcomes of a project that forms the basis for strategicplanning, on-going decision-making, monitoring and evaluation

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Figure 1. Generic outcomes framework showing key components of a theory of change model

Benefits and limitations
A theory of change approach can be a useful tool for the planning, management and monitoring ofcomplex conservation and development projects. The process of developing a theory of change can bebeneficial to the project team above and beyond the products produced through this approach byfacilitating sharing of knowledge, developing a common vision of project goals and building a clear roadmap for how goals will be achieved, that is agreed upon by the whole team. However, the approachalso has its shortcomings, including its reductionist view of complex problems and the dedicated timerequired to develop a theory of change, which project teams should be aware of before embarking on
the process. In the section below, we summarize the range of benefits and limitations of a theory ofchange approach, with reference, in particular, to EbA projects.

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Table 1. Benefits of using a theory of change approach across four categories of project management
Participation

Shared understanding of what the project is trying to accomplish

Planning and management

Assess feasibility of reaching goals
Avoid implementing an activity that is unlikely to be effective
Estimate length of time needed to reach goals
Manage expectations about amount of work required to reach goals
Identify conditions outside the project’s control that affect outcomes

Project implementation

Implement appropriate activities at the right time in the right order
Awareness of resources needed to implement an intervention

Monitoring and evaluation

Explain why an initiative worked or did not work
Consensus on how success will be documented

Table 1 summarizes generic advantages of constructing theory of change models for project. Specificbenefits for EbA projects include:
Balance multiple goals. EbA projects encompass both social and ecological goals which interact and may
in certain circumstances conflict with each other. A theory of change model enables a project toillustrate the relationships between different goals and the activities required to achieve overall projectsuccess.
Understand uncertainty in decision-making. Evidence to support the key hypotheses underlying EbA isoften limited and different methodologies and activities are largely untested. Stating intended resultsfrom chosen activities within a theory of change approach allows a project to clearly identify
assumptions and the levels of uncertainty surrounding project decisions. This illustration might help aproject team identify priorities for in-depth monitoring and evaluation where choices need to bevalidated.
Track progress towards long-term goals. The time lag between implementing a project activity andbeing able to observe an ecological or social outcome conceivably ranges from weeks to decades. For
example, the restoration or rehabilitation of degraded mangroves may take ten or more years before
they reach sufficient maturity (height and/or density) to reduce climate change driven increases instorm surge. A theory of change model enables projects to map short and intermediate-term outcomesin order to bring about more substantive outcomes that might be difficult to demonstrate within the
project lifetime.
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In describing the steps in constructing theory of change models (see next section), we highlight specificchallenges that might be encountered during the process. There are, however, several broader
limitations to using this approach which project teams should consider before embarking on a theory ofchange process.

Photo: Coastline with scattered stands of mangroves

Theory of change models often have a tendency to fit a linear trajectory due to the two-dimensional
format of how theories of change are illustrated. In reality, the process of moving through different
steps of a project will occur with a series of feedbacks and interactions between different activities andoutcomes. Theory of change models are therefore constrained by the tools available to illustrate theconnections between various components of the model. The integration of dependencies, feedbacks
and overall timing into a linear results chain can therefore be challenging.
On the one hand, the simplicity of a theory of change is seen as a benefit of the approach. On the other
hand, critics argue that a theory of change can seem reductionist or over-simplify complex problems.
Inevitably, the quality of the theory of change depends on the strength and quality of the data used toconstruct it. The theory of change is only an illustrative representation of our current state ofknowledge of a system and the factors that influence effectiveness of different activities in bringing
about changes.

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Photo: Coastal mangrove and coral reef

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A step-by-step guideto constructing a theory of change
The following section describes in detail what is needed to prepare a theory of change through aparticipatory session with a project team and the key considerations required throughout the process.
The process of constructing of a theory of change involves five main steps. The process is illustrated
here in a linear fashion, but it is recommended to revisit previous steps as new knowledge is gained
throughout the process.

Step 1.

Defining long-term goal(s) of project

Step 2.

Mapping the pathway to change: Building an outcomes framework

Step 3.

Identifying indicators to track progress

Step 4.

Selecting a set of activities

Step 5.

Articulating key assumptions

Too often, project teams decide which activities they want to do (Step 4) before clearly defining thegoals of the project (Step 1) or how they expect to progress towards these goals through a series ofshort and intermediate changes (Step 2). In the steps below, we describe the benefits of scoping goals
and intended outcomes first, before identifying activities intended to achieve these outcomes.
The steps are illustrated with examples from a project funded by BMU’s International Climate Initiative(ICI) that is implemented by CI which addresses EbA in three countries including in the context of coastal
protection among coastal communities in the Philippines.

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Step 1.
Define long-term goal(s) of project
The theory of change approach is essentially an explanation of how a project team and relevant
stakeholders expect to reach a commonly understood, long-term goal. The project goal represents theultimate vision of what the project intends to achieve. Outcomes are changes to ecological or social
systems which reflect achievement of stated goals.
In reality, many conservation and development projects have multiple goals or outcome(s), each ofwhich would need to be mapped in the way described in this document. A project funded by BMU’s ICI
that is implemented by CI for example aims to achieve long-term changes to both social and ecologicalsystems.
Examples of long-term goals for ecosystem-based adaptation projects:
Project level goal: Reduce vulnerability of coastal communities in the Philippines to adverse effects oftropical cyclones

Intervention level goal: By 2017, reduce vulnerability of 15% of smallholder farms to crop damage fromstorm surges

Goals might be stated quantitatively or qualitatively (see examples above). Whether quantitative
targets are included, it is desirable for goals to be SMART or Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic
and Time-bound. Following SMART principles when setting goals will help frame a project that is notoverly ambitious and has a higher likelihood of producing results. Dependent on the complexity of the
project, qualitative goals might be set at the project level with more specific quantitative for specificinterventions within the overall project. Ideally, goals should be nested as tiers to enable data
aggregation and reporting at different scales.
It is often taken for granted that everyone involved in the project is in agreement about what the
project goals are, but often in this step, different ideas about the purpose of the project are revealed.
This step is therefore important for building consensus around a common vision about what the project
expects to achieve. The theory of change approach also encourages the project team to be as specific as
possible about their definition of the project’s long-term outcome(s). Vague or overly-broad goalstatements can make measurement difficult.

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Step 2.
The pathway to change: Building an outcomes framework
This is the most time-intensive step in constructing a theory of change. This step involves theidentification and organization of all outcomes necessary to achieve the long-term goal(s) defined in theprevious step. Outcomes are changes that must occur prior to the achievement of the long-term goal.
For example, a sufficient area of mangrove ecosystems in coastal Philippine communities needs to berehabilitated or restored in order to realistically reduce potential damage to communities from storm
surges. They might include outputs, which are short-term products or processes occurring during thelife of the project. The outcomes framework maps the linear relationship, or pathway to change, linking
the set of short, intermediate and long-term outcomes over time.
The outcomes framework also depicts relationships between long-, intermediate- and short-term
outcomes and the activities applied as part of the project (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Outcomes framework for an IKI EbA project in the Philippines
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It shows how outcomes are related to each other over the lifespan of the project. In the development of
the pathway-to-change, it is useful to provide examples to help project teams understand the range ofnecessary and sufficient preconditions.
A step-by-step process called “backwards mapping” is ideally used to create the outcomes framework.
In this process, the project team imagines that they are starting at the end of the project – with thesuccessful achievement of the project goal – and walking backwards in their minds to the beginning –asking the following question over and over: “What are the preconditions required for the outcomes atthis stage?” All outcomes illustrated in the framework are required to reach the project’s ultimate
goals; without each in place, we assume that the project goals cannot be reached.
There are several advantages to identifying outcomes first rather than activities, as many projects
usually do. First, the project team is able to see the big picture quickly which helps the team see how
their early achievements eventually lead to longer term outcomes. Second, it enables the team tovisualize what must change or be produced to reach goals before thinking about how to actually do it.
Finally, projects are driven by the goals they seek to achieve, rather the activities they think they need to
do. This approach helps the team to plan activities that bring about desired changes while being realistic
about available resources.

Photo: Fishing boats in the Philippines

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Step 3.
Identify indicators to monitor progress
For each outcome, the project team must ask “what evidence will we use to show that this outcome has
been achieved?” Indicators are specific qualitative or quantitative variables used to track progress
towards outcome achievement and to determine success of the project (Table 3). Outcomesmonitoring, or the process of tracking indicators, differs from measurements of outputs alone (e.g.,number of people attending a workshop; the production of a map). Measuring outputs tells us about
what we do and who we reach, but not what difference we made. Outcomes monitoring therefore
helps the project understand what changes occurred.

Table 3. Potential indicators for monitoring a specific outcome for an EbA project focused on mangrove
restoration and rehabilitation

Outcome

Restored areas ofmangroveecosystems

Indicators

Unit ofmeasurement

Frequency ofmonitoring

Growth rate of mangrove plants

Height (cm)Geographic extent of mangrove forest

Area (m )AnnualRate of fuelwood collection by community

Volume (tons)

Annual2

Quarterly

Actual measurement of indicators is often more difficult than identifying indicators. Often, teams
choose indicators based upon the types of available data rather than the variable that is likely to tellthem the most about whether the program was successful. As described in Table 3, in somecircumstances it might be easier to monitor change in the rate of threatening processes (e.g.,
unsustainable harvesting of mangroves) rather than the conservation feature directly. Selection ofindicators should not be constrained by data, but rather based upon the best way to document success.

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The following questions might be considered in the development of an appropriate and measureable
indicator:
Who or what is the target of the indicator?
e.g., stands of mangrove; households; fish population
How many will change?
e.g., extent of project area (hectares)
How much will it change by?
e.g., height of mangrove required to reduce storm surge
When will it change?
e.g., time required for sufficient regrowth of mangrove
How will we monitor the indicator?
Methodology: transect lines of planted areas of mangrove
Data collected: height of mangrove plants, density of mangrove stands
Timing: Annual monitoring
Staffing: Monitoring conducted by local community group

The types of indicators defined in a theory of change approach go beyond predicting an increase insomething good or a decrease in something undesirable – instead these indicators try to define a levelof detail that will be meaningful to the program stakeholders as benchmarks of progress. These details
help the project team communicate in very specific ways how much change, how many people, andwhat timeframe will be useful as measures of a successful outcome.
Setting a quantitative target for each indicator, which represents a threshold demonstrating ameaningful change in specific variables targeted by the project, is important for demonstrating theeffectiveness of activities and tracking progress towards longer term goals. Achievement of high-level
outcomes might not occur for many years, and therefore more short-term milestones, represented bytargets might help promote support for the project among stakeholders or help leverage further funding
from donors. On the other hand, project teams can be hesitant to set quantitative targets which might
be arbitrary or uninformed by data; yet without such a target it is unclear how project success isdefined.

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Step 4.
Select a set of project activities
Interventions are project-specific processes (e.g., mangrove restoration and rehabilitation), that might
include one or more activities to bring about each outcome in the outcomes framework, required toachieve the project goals. Interventions might include a single activity or be as complex as an entire
program (Figure 3). Activities include processes, actions or methods that are implemented to bringabout specific measurable changes.
The theory of change approach focuses first on identifying all the outcomes for reaching a long-termgoal. Only after these conditions have been identified and laid out in a change pathway can theappropriate actions be developed to bring them about. The outcomes depicted will drive the choice ofactivity as opposed to the other way around.

Figure 3. Outcomes framework outlining the range of activities required to implement a mangrove
rehabilitation and restoration intervention in the Philippines. Different activities are highlighted asshaded circles and occur at different points in time. A list of corresponding activities is provided below.

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Activities (shaded circles in Figure 3)
A. Conduct vulnerability assessment to determine project site and project goals
B. Baseline assessment of community assets including housing, cropland and livelihood resources
C. Identify suitable areas within the site for mangrove planting
D. Select appropriate species for planting
E. Implement mangrove planting in selected areas
F. Maintain planted areas (remove debris, monitor status annually)
G. Monitoring of damage and asset loss following storm(s) year to year
Each activity in a theory of change must be linked to required outcomes and must not conflict with theassumptions that have been articulated. Monitoring is therefore need to test our assumptions about
the effectiveness of an activity in achieving an outcome.

Photo: Fisherman in coastal mangroves, Philippines

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Step 5.
Articulate key assumptions
Assumptions explain the underlying logic behind our expectations of the connections between different
components of the pathway-of-change. They represent a set of beliefs that guide decisions – and ideallyshould be supported by scientific research, best practices or expert knowledge.
Assumptions describe both the relationship between activities and the long-term changes that occur inthe early and intermediate stages of the change process, and the expectations about how and why
proposed activities will bring them about. In addition, they also substantiate the claim that all of theimportant preconditions for success have been identified.

Figure 4. Assumptions made in constructing theory of change with examples from an EbA project in thePhilippines
Assumptions are used to justify the choice of planned activities intended to bring about the outcomes in
the path and to articulate constraints in the environment that may hinder or promote the achievementof the long-term goal(s). Assumptions should tell the story about how and why planners expect change
to occur as depicted in an outcomes framework. Assumptions draw on theory from academic researchor practice (Box 2) and their articulation is particularly important where the success of an intervention
relies on often complex and sometimes poorly understood relationships between, for example, socialand ecological systems. It is also possible to test assumptions with field research, depending on funding
and time constraints. Types of assumptions might be related to the presence of necessary resources orconditions required for activities to be effective (e.g., adequate budget to implement mangrove planting
at all sites), or that progress in achieving long-term outcomes can be tracked quantitatively (e.g.,biophysical service provided by mature mangrove plants in reducing storm surges is measurable year toyear).

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Long-term goals for EbA projects might only be achieved well beyond the project lifespan, since manychanges to ecological and social systems are likely to occur with lengthy time lags. For example,
mangrove forests may take a decade or more to reach maturity and provide 100% of their coastal
protection services, meaning that an articulated goal of reducing vulnerability to storm surge will bedelivered incrementally over that time period, rather than being an immediate and absoluteconsequence of a mangrove restoration and rehabilitation intervention. Clearly articulating assumptions
about how long-term impacts are expected to occur, based on the choice of interventions and early andintermediate outcomes, is a critical step in facilitating monitoring of the contribution of an EbA project
after the project activities are complete.
During the process of creating the outcomes framework, participants are required to articulate as manyof their assumptions about the change process as they are able (e.,g., assumptions for interventions,
outputs and outcomes), so that these can be examined and even tested to determine if any key
assumptions are hard to support (or even false).

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Box 2. Existing evidence supports assumptions about effectiveness of marine reserves
There is a widely held belief that marine reserves yield ecological benefits. The assumption exists thatthe establishment of a marine protected areas leads to reduced rates of overharvesting and greater
persistence of fish stocks. This assumption has recently been supported by evidence from research into
the effectiveness of marine protected areas. A review of 89 studies, for example, show that on
average four biological measures (density, biomass, size of organisms, and diversity) are significantly
higher inside reserves compared to outside (or after reserve establishment vs. before) (Halpern
2003).This evidence suggests that establishment of a marine reserve (intervention) is likely to lead toan improvement in one or more biological measures (outcome). Yet, there are further assumptions
related to this evidence in terms of the design or size of the reserve for example.
Halpern, B. S. 2003. The impact of marine reserves: do reserves work and does reserve size matter? EcologicalApplications 13:S117-S137.

Summary
Photo: Turtle Islands Heritage Protected Area, Philippines

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Conclusions
In this document, we have briefly outlined the key steps to constructing a theory of change model. A
theory of change is a useful approach for planning, managing and monitoring the progress of a project
towards its long-term goals. Application of a theory of change in supporting EbA projects is beneficial
due to the complexity and uncertainty involved in implementing this conservation strategy. The theoryof change approach generates a conceptual map which illustrates the pathway to change from activities
to short-term outputs, intermediate and longer-term outcomes, and finally to goals. The process ofarticulating a theory of change by a project team can be as informative as the product itself by building
consensus, improving knowledge of how activities link to results and providing clarity about assumptions
being made. After going through the process, the project team should be on the same page about what
the project intends to achieve, which activities are required, and what indicators are helpful formeasuring and tracking progress towards long-term goals. Given the limited resources for ecosystemconservation and the urgent challenge of climate change, sound project planning and management,
supported by a theory of change, is critical for achieving desired impacts.

Photo: Fishermen in the Philippines

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Appendix 1. Additional resources
Publications
Anderson, A.A. 2004. Theory of change as a tool for strategic planning: A report on early experiences.
The Aspen Institute: New York, NY.
Anderson, A.A. 2005. The Community Builder’s approach to Theory of Change: A practical guide totheory development. The Aspen Institute: New York, NY.
Margoluis, R., C. Stem, N. Salafsky, and M. Brown. 2009. Using conceptual models as a planning andevaluation tool in conservation. Evaluation and Program Planning 32:138-147.
Spearman, M. 2011. Making Adaptation Count: Concepts and options for monitoring and evaluation ofclimate change adaptation. World Resources Institute: Washington, D.C.

Websites
The Theory of Change Community - www.theoryofchange.org
Learning for Sustainability – www.learningforsustainability.net/evaluation/theoryofchange.php

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19Appendix 2. Managing a theory of change process
The process of developing a theory of change is often viewed to be as important as the products itself.
Generally, the construction of a theory of change occurs during a series of structured, facilitatedsessions with members of the project team. The purpose of these participatory sessions is to generate
information, ask questions and build consensus about how the theory of change is conceptualized.
The steps laid out in this document encourage a participatory process rather than development inisolation of a theory of change by just one or two team members. The benefits of a more inclusive
process are : 1) a shared vision for the project; 2) input of knowledge from different members particularly important for complex, multi-objective or interdisciplinary projects; 3) a common
understanding about what the project intends to do and how progress might be measured.
To facilitate a smooth and informative process, we have provided a few key tips on managing aparticipatory theory of change process:1. Engage a facilitator, experienced with theory-of-change, to run the workshop, keep the team on
track and help the team consider questions at each stage;
2. Circulate background information on theory-of-change (such as this document or those listed inAppendix 1) to the project team. It is preferable if the team (or at least some members) are
familiar with the theory of change concept prior to involvement with the process;3. Prepare any available project documents, such as original proposals, presentations andbackground literature, which might be useful for informing discussion and clarifying the scope ofwork
4. Provide a training session on theory of change to the project team ;5. If the project team is large, develop the outcomes framework with a small subset of the teamand then present to larger project team for their feedback and input

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[Type text]

Photo: Fishermen, Turtle Islands Heritage Protected Area, Philippines

Contact:
Name: Madeleine McKinnon
Mailing address: 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500 Arlington VA 22202 USA
Tel: 1(703) 341-2400
E-mail: m.mckinnon@conservation.org
Web: www.conservation.org
Citation: Conservation International. 2013. Constructing theories of change models for Ecosystem-based Adaptation
projects: a guidance document. Conservation International. Arlington, VA.
Photo credits:
Coastal mangroves and coral reef, © Burt Jones and Maurine Shimlock
Turtle Islands Heritage Protected Area, Philippines, © Keith Ellenbogen
Fishermen in the Philippines © Liza Dans
Fishermen, Turtle Islands Heritage Protected Area, Philippines © Keith Ellenbogen
All other photos, © Madeleine McKinnon

Last updated: May 8th, 2012