Engineering and Innovation:
The Art of Anticipating the Future

DIVERSITY IN CARBON NEUTRALITY
Scientific view bases on IPCC

Suzana Kahn
Full Professor – COPPE/UFRJ
Coordinator – Green Fund/UFRJ
Director – China-Brazil Center for Climate Change and Energy Technology Innovation
Director – COPPE/UFRJ
December 6, 2023 -Japan Pavilion at Expo City Dubai

IPCC - 6° Assessement Report (2022)
WG III – Mitigation of Climate Change2

Mitigation Options: LDV
Light duty vehicles (LDVs) represent the main mode of transport for private citizens, andcurrently represent the largest share of transport emissions globally . Currently,powertrains depending on gasoline and diesel fuels remain the dominant technology inthe LDV segment
Hybrid electric (HEVs) and fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs), however, have become
increasingly popular in recent years.
Hybrid (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) vary in terms of degree ofpowertrain electrification. HEVs mainly rely on regenerative braking for charging thebattery. On the other hand, PHEVs combine regenerative braking with external powersources for charging the battery.
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have higher production emissions but only water vapor on
tail pipe emissions
3

LCA –Life Cycle Analysis
Operating emissions : driving and powertrain efficiency,
fuel and electricity mix
Manufacturing emissions : vehicle ( batteries) technology
production and energy mix
Hydrogen production : dependent on hydrogen fuel chain4

Energy systems for different transport modes

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Life cycle greenhouse emissions for mid-sized LDVs and fueltechnologies.

The primary x-axis reports units in gCO2-eq/vkm,
assuming a vehicle life of 180,000 km. The secondary xaxis uses units of gCO2eq/passenger-km, assuming a 1.5
occupancy factor. Shaded area represents theinterquartile range for combined vehicle manufacturing andend-of-life phases. The length of the box and whiskers
represent the interquartile range of the operation phase fordifferent fuel chains, while their placement on the x-axis
represents the absolute lifecycle climate intensity, i.e.,
includes manufacturing and end-of-life phases.
6Internal Combustion Engine Performance Improvement
The average fuel consumption of new vehicles has improved significantly in recent years, due to more stringent emission
regulations and the test cycle following real-world driving conditions; however, improvements are now slowing down.

GFEI 2030 target

Average fuel consumption of LDV was
improved by only 0.7 % and was 7.2 Lge(Liters gasoline-equivalent) per100km in
2017. This was slower than 1.8 %improvement per year between 2005 and2016 and would appear to be due to theincreasing size and weight of SUV’s in thevehicle fleet

Ratio of public charging infrastructure to electric vehicles,by country.

8Commercialization status of selected biofuels conversion
technologies.

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Tools and Strategies for enabling
mitigation options to achieve transformative scenarios
Tools andStrategies
1. Education
Behavioural
Change andR&D

Light Vehicle Electromobility Systems

Travel Demand Reductions and Fuel/Vehicle Efficiency

Behaviour change programs help EV’s become more TDR can be assisted with digitalization, connected autonomous
mainstream. R&D will help on the socio-economic
vehicles, modal shift, EVs and Mobility as a Service (Marsden et al,
structures that impede adoption of EV’s and the urban 2018; Shaheen et al, 2018).Knowledge gaps on TDR exist for longer
structures that enable reduced car dependence and distance travel (intercity); non-mandatory trips (leisure; social trips)
how EV’s can assist grids (Newman, 2011; Taiebat and and travel by elder people. Travel demand futuring tools can be openXu, 2019; Newman, et al, 2020)
source (Marsden, 2018).
2. Access and Significant equity issues with EV’s in the transition
TDR programs in cities can be inequitable so demand futures canEquity
period can be overcome with programs. (IRENA, 2016) address this by better links to spatial and economic development(Marsden et al, 2018), mindful of diverse local priorities, personal
freedom and personal data.
3. Financing Multiple opportunities for financing, economic
Carbon budget implications of different demand futures should be
Economic
incentives and partnerships with clear economic
published and used to help incentivize Net Zero projects (Marsden,Incentives and benefits can be assured especially using the role of2018)
Partnerships value capture in enabling such benefit. The nexus
between EV’s and the electricity grid needs
opportunities to demonstrate positive partnershipprojects (Sierczhula, 2014; Zhang et al, 2014; Mahmud
et al, 2018; Newman Davies-Slate and Jones, 2018)10Tools and Strategies for enabling
mitigation options to achieve transformative scenarios
Tools andLight Vehicle Electromobility Systems
Travel Demand Reductions and Fuel/Vehicle Efficiency
Strategies
4. Co-benefits The SDG benefits in zero carbon light vehicle
A focus on people-centred solutions for future mobility with moreandtransport systems are being demonstrated and these pluralistic and feasible sets of outcomes for all people can be
Overcoming can now be quantified as nations mainstream thisachieved when they focus on more than simple benefit cost ratios but
Fragmentation transition. Holistic projects are clearly more able to include well-being and livelihoods, considering transport as a system,
demonstrate such benefits. New methods for doing rather than loosely connected modes as well as behaviour change
Benefit Cost Ratios that make more of health benefits programs (Gov Office for Science, 2019; Newman 2011; Newman etin productivity are now improving transit and active al, 2017).
transport business cases/investment decision-making(UK DoT, 2019; Buonocore et al, 2019; Sharma et al,2020).
5. Regulation With zero carbon light vehicle systems rapidlyImplementing a flexible regulatory framework is needed for most TDR
andgrowing the need for a full assessment of regulatory (UK DoT, 2019). Regulatory assessment can help with potential
Assessment barriers can assist each city and region as well as
additional (cyber) security risk due to digitalization, AVs, IoT and Big
providing different economic opportunities and a
Data on travel demand (Shaheen, 2018). Assessment tools andsustainable business model (Bocken et al, 2016). How methods need to be simplified but taking account of greater diversity
EV’s can be related to walkability in cities (Speck,of population, regions, blurring of modes and distinct spatial
2018).
characteristics (Newman and Kenworthy, 2015)
11Cont.

Tools and Strategies for enabling
mitigation options to achieve transformative scenarios
Tools andLight Vehicle Electromobility Systems
Strategies
6. Governance Governance and institutional capacity can now
andprovide international exchanges and education
Institutional programs based on successful cities and nations
Capacityenabling light vehicle decarbonisation to create
more efficient and effective policy mechanisms
towards self-sustaining markets (Green, 2014;Skjolsvold and Ryghaug, 2019).

Travel Demand Reductions and Fuel/Vehicle Efficiency
TDR works better if adaptive decision-making approaches focus on
more inclusive and whole of system benefit-cost ratios (Yang et al,2020; Marsden, 2018).

7.Enabling
There is a need for investments in the infrastructure Ensuring space for active transport and urban activities is taken
infrastructure that can support alternative fuels for LDVs. Large- from road space where necessary (Gossling, 2020; Gossling et al,
scale electrification of LDVs requires expansion of 2016). Increasing the proportion of walking city and transit fabric in
low-carbon power systems, while charging or
urban areas will structurally enable reductions in car use. (Section
battery swapping infrastructure is needed for some 10.2 and Newman and Kenworthy, 2015). Creating transit activatedsegments. (Ahmad et al. 2020; Gnann et.al. 2018). corridors of TOD’s based on rail or mid-tier transit using value
capture for financing will create inherently less car dependence(McIntosh et al, 2017; Newman et al 2019).
12Cont.

Regional Mitigation Options : Biofuel Brazilian Perspectives(LDV)
Hybrids & Flex- fuel as a technological transition• Given the high efficiency of the diesel engine, much of the effort has been placed on
developing biofuels compatible with diesel engines.
• Given the fleet size of ICE, much of the effort has been toward low carbon fuels.
• Given the available biomass in Brazil, much of the effort has been toward “ sustainablebioenergy” assuring the sustainable supply chain.
Biodiesel blends
Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
Ethanol fuels
Bioenergy according to different raw material and industrial process
13Regional Mitigation Options : Biofuel & H2 Brazilian
Perspectives (LDV)• Fuel production from vegetable oils via catalytic reactions;• Production of biofuel and electricity from bagasse and sugarcane straw;• High quality biodiesel production from pyrolysis bio-oil;• Biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils using reactors withcontacting membranes ;• Production of gaseous biofuels (C1, C2, C3) from glycerol (a by-product ofbiodiesel) and CO2;
• Biogas production from organic waste: transforming an environmental liability
into an energy asset aiming at sustainable development;• H2 production via biogas reform (CH4) with CO2 or H2O using catalytic
membrane reactors.
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Mitigation Options and Enabling Conditions for Transport

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Vision of the Future

Accenture Analysis , 2020

Engineering and Innovation:
The Art of Anticipating the Future