MILBON CO., LTD. (4919 JP) RESEARCH UPDATE – 28 MARCH 2023

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MILBON CO., LTD (4919 JP)F Y23 E ARNINGS RISK S LIE I N RA W MAT ERIA LS P RI CE DURI N G 1 H A ND RE COVERY I N CHINA.

FY22 EARNINGS RESULTS SUMMARY
Milbon Co., Ltd (4919 JP) reported FY22 (Dec year-end) earnings with grossprofit [GP] of ¥29,509mil (+10.2% YoY) operating profit [OP] of ¥7,551mil(+6.6% YoY) on sales of ¥45,238mil (+10.7% YoY).
Due to the increase in raw materials costs, which became more apparent in
Q3 onwards, FY22 gross profit margin [GPM] deteriorated by -0.3ppt YoY to65.2%. Milbon had stockpiled extra inventory of some core raw materials,
hence was able to avoid the full-fledged impact from cost increase until after
Q3. The firm expects earnings will be dampened by the continued rise inmaterials costs until FY23 1H.
FY22 SG&A also rose due to increases in personnel, travel and subsistence
costs, along with higher costs for reopening and large-scale events. Overseas,
the firm spent on R&D and one-off cost associated with the factory in China.
As a result, OPM fell by 0.6ppt YoY to 16.7%. Although the profit margin wasaffected by higher raw materials costs, the impact was relatively limited
because:
1. Raw materials cost hikes were offset as fixed costs were sufficiently
covered by increases in sales volume.
2. Pricing in the professional-use market is higher than that of consumer-use
toiletry products, hence a lower raw material cost ratio. Although someof the rival brands raised prices of their professional-use haircare
products, Milbon did not follow suit.
3. Over half of Milbon’s existing products were launched in the past five
years. New product prices are based on the firm’s assessment of the most
up-to-date trends in customer value, commodity prices and production
costs. Given the majority of its products were recently launched, pricing
tends to reflect current market conditions.
Milbon (4919 JP): Earnings Summary (Cumulative)
FY21(¥mil)

FY22

1H

FY

1H

FY
Actual

YoY
(%)

FYCE

vs.
FYCE

Sales

19,217

40,84921,46745,23810.7

43,900

3.0

COGS

6,650

14,083

7,198

15,72911.7

14,7606.6

GP12,566

26,765

14,26929,50910.2

29,1401.3

GPM (%)

65.4

65.5

66.5

65.2

-0.3ppt

66.4-1.2ppt

SG&A

9,248

19,681

10,444

21,957

11.6

21,590

1.7

SG&A / Sales (%)

48.1

48.2

48.7

48.5

+0.3ppt

49.2-0.7ppt

OP

3,317

7,084

3,824

7,551

6.6

7,550

0.0

OPM (%)

17.3

17.3

17.8

16.7

-0.6ppt

17.2-0.5ppt

RP

3,355

7,158

4,137

7,829

9.4

7,410

5.7

RPM (%)

17.5

17.5

19.3

17.3

-0.2ppt

16.9+0.4ppt

2,413
5,109
2,875
5,577
9.2
5,230
Source: Nippon-IBR based on Milbon's FY21 & FY22 earnings presentation materials

6.6

NP*

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 Milbon Co., Ltd (4919 JP) reported
FY22 (Dec year-end) earnings withgross profit [GP] of ¥29,509mil (+10.2%
YoY) and operating profit [OP] of¥7,551mil (+6.6% YoY) on sales of¥45,238mil (+10.7% YoY). OPM fell
0.6ppt YoY due to 1) raw material pricehikes, 2) higher SG&A.
 The company’s e-commerce platform,
milbon:iD, which supports salons in thesale of haircare products, saw thenumber of registered salons on the site
reach 4,800, up from 3,200 salons as of
the FY21-end. The number of milbon:iDusers also rose from 170,000 in FY21 to450,000 as of FY22. As a result,
Milbon’s e-commerce sales more thandoubled to ¥1,155mil, up from the¥511mil achieved in FY21.
 Milbon is guiding for record earnings in
FY23 with GP of ¥32,160mil (+9.0% YoY)
and OP of ¥8,300mil (+9.9% YoY) on
sales of ¥49,200mil (+8.8% YoY). The
company is cautious on its outlook for
raw materials costs – expecting hikes tocontinue during 1H – and 2) the pact ofrecovery in China.
 Globally, Milbon has identified seven
key regions for its products – 1) Japan,2) Korea, 3) China, Hong Kong andTaiwan, 4) ASEAN, 5) North America(the US and Canada), 6) EU, and 7)
Middle East (Turkey) – where the firm
will promote “local production andlocal consumption”.
 Milbon plans has budgeted CAPEX of¥2,927mil in FY23, substantially downfrom FY22’s ¥4,097mil. The dividend
payment is estimated at ¥88/share, or
pay-out-ratio of 49.3%, vs. mediumterm target of 50%.
 The
medium-termtarget’s(FY23~FY26) remain unchanged at OPof ¥27,360mil on sales of ¥58,000mil,
with Domestic sales of ¥43,700mil (5year CAGR 5.8%) and Overseas sales of¥14,300mil (CAGR 12.6%).

* NP attributed to the parent's shareholders

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MILBON CO., LTD. (4919 JP) RESEARCH UPDATE – 28 MARCH 2023

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By region, net sales in Japan rose +7.3% YoY as demand for the firm’s hair colour and hair care products remained firm.
In the US, the successful collaboration with local distributors supported FY22 net sales growth of +46.7% YoY (yendenominated basis [YDB] / on a local currency [LCY] basis +22.6% YoY). Korea net sales rose +23.5% YoY YDB / LCY+16.6% YoY), despite Korea’s economy being hit by inflation and a rise in interest rate from 2H, thanks to continued
strong demand for the firm’s core hair colour products.
Net Sales Breakdown by Products (Cumulative)
FY21(¥mil)

FY22

FY23

1H

FY

1H

FY

YoY (%)FYCE

FY v. FYCE

FYCE

YoY
(%)

Hair care products

11,08724,02912,21826,312

9.5

25,5702.9

27,942

6.2

Hair colouring products

6,999

14,5498,148

16,631

14.3

15,5706.8

17,403

4.6

Permanent wave products

727

1,424

751

1,450

1.8

1,510

-4.0

1,594

9.9

Cosmetic products

293

579

262

572

-1.3

900

-36.4

673

17.6

Others

109

266

87

272

2.3

350

-22.3

1,588

483.5

Total

19,217

40,84921,46745,23810.7

43,9003.049,2008.8

Source: Nippon-IBR based on Milbon's earnings presentation materials (FY20, FY21 &FY22)

Sales by Country
Japan
Milbon reported FY22 Japan OP of ¥6,194mil (+1.4% YoY) on sales of ¥35,334mil (+7.3% YoY), which produced an OPMof 17.5%, down from FY21’s 18.5%. Although the impact of the COVID pandemic in Japan was prolonged throughout
FY22, the effect on the performance of the firm’s hair salons was negligible.
Given many people in Japan still wear masks, hair colour has become a fashion item / way for individuals to express
themselves, resulting in hair colour sales growth of 12.4% YoY in FY22. With rising demand for hair colouring, such as
double colour and bleach on colour, sales of products that help treat damaged hair due to colouring, as well as products
to make the colour last longer, have expanded.
Milbon reported FY22 domestic haircare product sales (gross basis) of ¥24,897mil (+5.6% YoY), of which approx.
¥13,557mil (+8.7% YoY) is from the firm’s premium brands. Given COVID restrictions led to customers not frequenting
salons as regularly as they used to, especially in the urban areas, it has become vital that hairdressers encourage salesof salon-bought haircare products in an effort to maintain their business.
The benefits of the Milbon’s efforts can be seen in the sharp increase in the number of salons that registered withmilbon:iD – the firm’s unique e-commerce platform – which hit 4,800 in FY22, compared to 1,300 in FY20 and 3,200 in
FY21. Of those 4,800 salons, approx. 500 have more than 200 milbon:iD customers. Salon customers are registered withmilbon:iD through a QR code provided by their salons. The number of registered users of milbon:iD surged to 450,000
in FY22, up from only 30,000 in FY20 and 170,000 in FY21.
Milbon’s e-commerce revenue in FY22 more than doubled, coming in at ¥1,150mil compared to FY21’s ¥511mil. The
firm estimates that approx. 70% or ¥17,428milof the domestic haircare revenues from its haircare products comes fromsalon sales. Moreover, the spend per person exceeded the ¥10,000 mark to approx. ¥12,000, which compares to thetypical cost of ¥7,000~8,000 for a hair cut in a Central Tokyo salon. However, only an estimated 30~35% of the 450,000
registered users of milbon:iD are active users. How to mobilise those dormant customers will be the next step for the
milbon:iD’s further success.
In terms of profitability in the domestic business, there was a bit of a cushion on the cost side as the firm did not use
its planned SG&A budget due to long lasting COVID restrictions on business activities. However, FY22 OPM in Japan
deteriorated by 1.0 ppt YoY, due to a hike in raw materials cost and overall SG&A costs rose +11.6% YoY on the back of
an increase in personnel costs, such as hiring new Field Persons [FPs] and logistics.

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Overseas
FY22 overseas earnings surpassed Milbon’s expectations, generating sales of ¥9,904mil (+25.2% YoY YDB / LCY +14.6%
YoY). Although there was some FOREX impact, the LCY-based sales growth suggests that the firm enjoyed 1) an
expanding customer base, and 2) an increase in sales volumes. FY22 overseas OP expanded +38.9% YoY to ¥1,357mil,boosting the OPM by 1.3ppt to 13.7%, mainly due to 1) solid growth in Korea, where the firm reported FY22 OP of¥1,351mil (+21.8% YoY) on sales of ¥4,159mil (+23.5% YoY), generating an OPM of 32.5%, thanks to solid sales of haircolour products, 2) contracted losses in the US from -¥561mil in FY21 to -¥168mil in FY22, and 3) turned black in otherareas (which include Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Turkey, Indonesia, Philippine, Singapore, Vietnam andGermany).
Details by country are as follows: US: By continuing to expand its alliances with local distributors to cultivate new salons, FY22 US sales surged +46.7%
YoY [YDB] to ¥1,328mil. Although the high YoY growth reflects the positive impact from the weak yen, US sales rose
+22.6% YoY [LCY] thanks to strong sales of the premium haircare range Global Milbon. Hair colour product
Sophistone is also proving popular and has helped cultivate new customers. Although the US business remains in
the red with an operating loss of -¥168mil, the losses have shrunk vs FY21’s operating loss of -¥561mil.
 China: Operations in China fell into the red in FY22, due to the repeated lockdowns, which lasted throughout theyear. FY22 sales fell 1.6% YoY to ¥2,114mil YDB / LCY -13.6% YoY and reported an operating loss of ¥9mil, comparedto OP of ¥449mil in FY21. During the lockdown, Milbon worked on building good relationships with targeted salonsthrough its distributors, which resulted in helping the recovery once the lockdown was lifted in June. Milbon started
preparations for the production of core hair colour products at its factory in China, due to commence in FY23– oneyear earlier than the original schedule.
 Korea: Milbon Korea – the largest part of the firm’s overseas operations comprising 9.2% of total consolidated net
sales – generated FY22 OP of ¥1,351mil (+21.8% YoY) on sales of ¥4,159mil (YDB +23.5% YoY / LCB +16.6% YoY).
Salons in Korea were affected by macroeconomic environment such as inflation and higher interest rates.
Consumption was also somewhat affected by the Halloween disasters in Itaewon during Oct~Dec 2022. However,FY22 sales remained solid with hair colour products, some 80% of the sales in Korea, leading the growth.
FY23 OUTLOOKMilbon is guiding for a historical record earnings with FY23 GP of ¥32,160mil (+9.0% YoY) and OP of ¥8,300mil (+9.9%
YoY) on sales of ¥49,200mil (+8.8% YoY). However, the firm is taking cautious view on the outlook for 1) raw materials
as it expects the hikes in raw material costs to continue during 1H, and 2) the pace of the recovery in China. In addition,
SG&A is estimated to rise +8.7% YoY on the assumption that personnel costs will increase as Milbon is actively recruiting
staff, though the FY23 forecast does not include any potential pay rise for existing employees.
Milbon (4919 JP): Earnings Results and Guidance
FY21(¥mil)

FY22

Results

YoY (%)

Adjusted

Sales

41,582

16.4

40,849

10.7

CE(adjusted)
43,900DM

33,64312.6

32,93835,334

7.3

35,1500.5

38,021

7.6

Overseas

7,938

35.8

7,910

9,904

25.2

8,750

13.2

11,17912.9

GP

YoY (%)

Results
v. CE
3.0

FY23
CE
YoY (%)(Adjusted)
49,2008.8

Results(Adjusted)
45,23827,49817.6

26,76529,50910.3

29,1401.3

32,1609.0

GPM (%)

66.1+0.7ppt

65.5

65.2

-0.3ppt

66.4-1.2ppt

65.4+0.2ppt

SG&A

19,681

15.8

19,681

21,957

11.6

21,5901.7

23,860

8.7

SG&A / Sales (%)

47.3-0.3pp

48.2

48.5+0.3ppt

49.2-0.7ppt

48.5

flat

OP

7,817

22.3

7,084

7,551

6.6

7,550

0.0

8,300

9.9

OPM (%)

18.8+0.9ppt

17.3

16.7

-0.6ppt

17.2-0.5ppt

16.9+0.2ppt

RP

7,158

23.6

7,158

7,829

9.4

7,410

5.7

8,250

5.4

RPM (%)

17.2+1.0ppt

17.5

17.3

-0.2ppt

16.9+0.4ppt

16.8-0.5ppt

NP for the parent's s/holders

5,109

21.5

5,109

5,577

9.2

5,230

6.6

5,800

4.0

Source: Nippon-IBR based on Milbon's earnings presentation materials FY21 & FY22.

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FY23 EARNINGS FORECAST BY REGION
Milbon identifies seven key regions representing the global market for its products. Those seven regions are: (1) Japan,(2) Korea, (3) China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, (4) ASEAN, (5) North America (US and Canada), (6) EU, and (7) Middle
East (Turkey). The firm promotes “local production and local consumption” and aims to 1) establish a dedicatedsales infrastructure, 2) have localised R&D, and 3) set up manufacturing and distribution facilities in each region. The
firm has identified that each region has its own preference for hair care due to differences in culture and hair quality,
hence it is important to tailor its products to match local demands.
Sales and OP Breakdown by Country - Results and Guidance
FY21

FY22

FY23 CE(¥mil)

Japan

US

FY

1H

FY

Sales

15,41332,938

16,62735,334

7.3

35,1500.5

38,021

7.6

OP

2,745

6,106

3,201

6,194

1.4

6,706

-7.6

7,021

13.4

OPM (%)

17.8

18.5

19.3

17.5

-1.0ppt

19.1-1.6ppt

18.5+1.0ppt

Sales
OP

406
-218

905
-561

603
-125

1,328
-168

46.7
n/a

1,052
-260

26.2
n/a

1,430
-160

7.6
n/a

OPM (%)
China

Korea

Others

Sales
OP

FY CE

FY CE

YoY (%)

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1,091
269

2,148
449

1,058
-76

2,114
-9

-1.6
n/a

2,487
206

-15.0
n/a

2,641
240

24.9
n/a

OPM (%)

24.7

20.9

n/a

n/a

n/a

8.3

n/a

9.1

n/a

Sales
OP

1,596
531

3,368
1,109

2,043
693

4,159
1,351

23.5
21.8

3,604
1,055

15.4
28.1

4,543
1,212

9.2
-10.3

OPM (%)

33.3

32.9

33.9

32.5

-0.4ppt

29.3+3.2ppt

26.7-5.8ppt

Sales
OP

709
-10

1,487
-20

1,133
130

2,301
184

54.7
n/a

1,607
-158

43.2
n/a

2,565
-12

11.6
n/a

OPM (%)
Overseas
Total

YoY (%)

FY v. FYCE
(%)

1H

n/a

n/a

11.5

8.0

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Sales
OP

3,803
571

7,910
977

4,839
622

9,904
1,357

25.2
38.9

8,750
843

13.2
61.0

11,179
1,278

12.9
-5.8

OPM (%)

15.0

12.4

12.9

13.7

+1.3ppt

9.6+4.1ppt

11.4-2.3ppt

Source: Nippon-IBR based on Milbon's FY22 Q2 & Q4 earnings results material* YoY figures are based on Japanese yen denominated sales and OP numbers

Japan
Milbon is guiding for FY23 Japan OP of ¥7,021mil (+13.4% YoY) on a new record level in sales of ¥38,021mil (+7.6% YoY),
mainly thanks to strong demand for hair care and hair colour products. The importance of selling haircare products andestablishing an online shopping infrastructure such as milbon:iD has become key to retaining customers, both now andin the future, and for them to become repeat purchasers of Milbon’s hair products.
For salons, the advantage of milbon:iD is that they can promptly promote hair care products when the customer isabout to renew their purchases. In addition, by generating revenues by selling products online, it can limit declines insales should there be potential closures in the future. The average spend per customer on milbon:iD is now at ¥12,000,
vs ¥7,000~8,000 if a customer buys products at a salon, and is almost equal to what customers pay for hair colour andcut in a reasonably priced salon.
Milbon plans to take further steps to promote product sales at salons by introducing the Smart Salon concept in FY23,
which was designed to enhance product sales through milbon:iD. Smart Salon is a salon space that offers a new
product-buying experience that combines real and digital under professional advice. Salons best suited to adopt the
Smart Salon concept are those planning to refurbish the shopfloor space and open new branches. The firm realisedthat most salon customers do not buy Milbon products solely on the recommendation of their hairdresser. At Smart
Salons which are opened and operated by salons that agree with the Milbon’s Smart Salon concept, customers
can try the products
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directly and/or buy the trial size before deciding to buy the hair care products. Milbon aims to increase number ofregistered users of milbon:iD to 1mil by FY26, up from 450,000 as of FY22-end.
As noted above, the key for the further boost salon product sales growth will be to mobilise dormant milbon:iD users.
The firm reckons that the Smart Salon concept will improve the active user ratio of milbon:iD.
Overseas
FY23 Overseas earnings guidance is OP of ¥1,278mil (-5.8% YoY) on sales – which are likely to reach a new record level– of ¥11,179mil (+12.9% YoY). Although each overseas operation will see sales expand as many businesses reopen postCOVID, Milbon plans to resume large-scale events in Korea and Others areas, which will reduce each region’s OP by¥139mil YoY (-10.3% YoY) to ¥1,212mil and by ¥197mil to an operating loss of ¥12mil, respectively. In Korea, the firmplans to hire staff and launch events to attract young talented hairdressers as their customers.
FY23 developments overseas are as follows:






After the reopening in China, Milbon plans to host events that will draw a few thousand hairdressers and salon
owners.
Preparing for the production of hair colour products in the China factory from FY23, a year earlier ahead of schedule.
Continue to promote educational events and cultivate salons with local distributors in North America.
Initiate global R&D functions in the US, Thailand and China in addition to Japan and to develop products best
matched to each market.
Enhance the global production between factories in Japan, Thailand, and China.

Milbon’s aim is to expand new business in each market and establish a global distribution network with a two-week
delivery system to achieve overseas sales of ¥14,300mil in FY26, the final-year of the current medium-term
management plan (FY23~FY26) which guides for 4-year CAGR in overseas sales of 9.6%.
Medium-term management plan (FY22~26)(¥mil)
Sales
Japan
Overseas
Gross Profit [GP]GPM (%)
SG&A
Operating Profit [OP]OPM (%)
Recurring Profit [RP]NP attributed to the parent
NPM (%)

FY21
40,84932,938
7,910
26,76565.5
19,681
7,084
17.3
7,158
5,109

FY26
58,00043,70014,30038,16065.8
27,36010,80018.6
10,8107,670

FY22~FY26 CAGR (%)
7.3
5.8
12.6
7.4
+0.3ppt
6.8
8.8+1.3ppt
8.6
8.5

12.5

13.2

+0.7ppt

Source: Milbon Co., Ltd. FY22~26 New medium-term plan press release

CAPITAL ALLOCATION POLICY
CAPEX
Milbon plans to invest total of ¥23,000mil in CAPEX out of operating cash flow [CFO] of ¥44,000mil over the five-year
medium-term plan between FY22 and FY26. With FY22 being the first year of the new medium-term management plan,
Milbon made investments in Japan and overseas, including those related to digital transformation [DX]. In FY22, Milbon
generated CFO of ¥5,000mil, while investing ¥4,097mil in CAPEX and returned ¥2,800mil in shareholder returns,
generating a dividend pay-out ratio of 50.2%. The firm is guiding for FY23 CAPEX of ¥2,927mil, which includes projects
including facilitating Yumegaoka and Thai factories, and digital platform-related investments such as milbon:iD, anddigital marketing of Smart Salon. Depreciation is estimated at ¥2,301mil (+13.5% YoY).

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Shareholder Return
The firm has earmarked a dividend pay-out ratio of 50%. In FY22, Milbon paid out 50.2% of net profit to shareholders
in dividends. The firm is guiding for a dividend payment of ¥88.00 in FY23, or pay-out ratio of 49.3%.
During the medium-term plan, Milbon aims to achieve ROE of 13.9% and ROIC of 13.6%.

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