Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter

No. 8 (August 2012)

Contents
Field Research in Zambia – An Update

Ken Miura…1

The Global COE Research Workshop

Hiroshi Morita… 4

Report on the Fudan-Hitotsubashi Economic Conference 2012

Tangjun Yuan… 5

Discussion Papers ...9
Seminars and Conferences ...10Awards …15
Ph.D. Conferments …16

Field Research in Zambia – An Update
Ken Miura
COE Visiting Young Researcher
Department of Economics, Hitotsubashi University
In the Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter No. 7, I wrote

selling weather index insurance in cooperation with theabout a field experiment selling weather index

Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI). The

insurance we are conducting in Zambia. As a sequel,insurance contract consisted of a simple setup

in this newsletter I would like to report on a follow-up

whereby the insurance would pay out (with the payout

survey conducted in May 2012 with financial support

amount determined by the number of contracts

from the Hitotsubashi Global COE Hi-Stat Program.

purchased) in the case that the weather station closest

The follow-up survey had two objectives. The firstto the survey villages recorded rainfall in the six

objective was to tell farmers whether they would

months of the rainy season of less than 600mm or

receive an insurance payout or not. The second

more than 1,000mm. (For a more detailed explanation

objective was to obtain information on weather andrefer to the Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter No. 7.)

agricultural output – specifically, the output of maize,

In terms of the result, cumulative rainfall in thethe staple food in Zambia – in the participating survey

period from November 2011 to April 2012 came tovillages during the rainy season from November 2011

711.1mm, so that for the 2011/12 rainy season nobody

to April 2012. As explained in the previous Newsletter,received any insurance payout. Informing farmers ofin November 2011, we conducted a field experiment

this outcome was the first aim of the follow-up visit.

1Given that this project is carried out for research

In order to address these two aims, we organizedpurposes only, the plan is to repay the collected

meetings in each of the villages.

insurance premiums upon completion of the project.

Starting with the five villages close to the weather

However, because we have decided to repeat thestation, farmers, as expected, unanimously said thatexperiment in November of this year, no repayment willthey

be made at this stage, and instead we plan to return

mid-January to mid-February, but when they were

insurance premiums at the end of this project in May

informed that there would be no insurance payouts,

2013. Taking into account that returning insurance

they accepted this without protest. According to them,premiums to participants would affect the behavior of

overall, the maize harvest this year had been normal or

farmers in the survey villages, this issue has not beeneven better.

experienced

drought-like

conditions

frommentioned to farmers at this stage.
As indicated above, in terms of the rainfall measured
by the weather station, the 2011/12 rainy season was anormal year. However, even if the weather index
shows a “normal year,” it is still possible that in practicerainfall patterns may have been unusual and there
may have been droughts or flooding at the level ofsurveyed villages or households. In fact, before goingon my trip to Zambia, I had heard from ZARI that fromJanuarytoFebruary

2012,

the

surveyregionexperienced drought-like conditions. If the lack ofsufficient rainfall during this period (which is the time

Maize harvested at the village farthest from the weather

when maize flowers) had a negative impact on

station (the cob is smaller than in an average year)

agricultural output, the insurance provided in theexperiment may not have been effective. Therefore,

On the other hand, in the four villages about 45 to

examining whether there is a mismatch in practice55km from the weather station, the situation was very

between the weather index used for reference anddifferent. Farmers there said that in the four weeks

actual harvest yields is an extremely important issue

fromfor insurance design. Addressing this topic was theflowered there was no rain at all, and maintained that,

second aim of the follow-up survey.

as a result, the maize harvest was lower than in a

mid-January

immediately

after

the

maize

normal year. They suggests that although the grain
harvest was better than in the wake of the nationwide
drought in 2004/05, in terms of food self-sufficiency thesituation was worse than after the floods in 2007/08.
For this reason, they expected to receive the insurance
payout and therefore appeared to be dissatisfied when
the ZARI staff told them that the amount of rainfall
measured by the weather station exceeded 600mm
and that there would be no insurance payouts.
The claims by farmers in these meetings werebacked up by the household survey conducted
subsequently, allowing the conclusion that harvests in

Village meeting2these four villages were indeed bad this year.

Thus, the insurance experiment of selling insurance

Especially for households that do not have fields alongthat we conducted did not work well in some of thea river bank, the decrease in the maize harvest was

villages. However, from the outset, the insurance

relatively large. A further concern is that cotton, which

provided was intended to deal with a more large-scale

many farmers in this region cultivate as a cash crop, indrought than the one observed this year. In this sense,

contrast appears to have produced a bumper harvest.

uninsured rainfall risks remain, and those that have

At first glance, this may appear to be a good thing,suggested to me that such risk materialized this year

since one might expect this to compensate for the poor

may be right. While it is desirable to come up with amaize harvest. However, because cotton prices in the

more effective insurance design, to do so it isprevious year had been extremely good, more farmers

necessary to incorporate and test the present survey

had started cultivating cotton, which appears to haveresults as much as possible. Fortunately, it is planned

resulted in excess supply, so that the price farmers canto repeat the experiment in November this year, andget for their cotton this year is expected to be half or

we immediately set to work on revising the design ofless than that of the previous year. Therefore, thethe insurance contract.

revenues from cotton cultivation are also unlikely to be

Incidentally, in the village meetings, farmers madegood and there is a high possibility that a growing

various proposals for improving the insurance contract

number of households in this region will see their living

and we discussed some of them in detail. Many of thestandards deteriorate.

suggestions made a lot of sense, such as changing therainfall data used for reference (for example byinstalling automatic rainfall meters in villages) andbasing the insurance contract not on the cumulative
amount of rain, but on the amount of rain in eachmonth. These suggestions reflect the fact that the ones
that have the most to gain from weather index
insurance without doubt are the villagers themselves.

Acknowledgements:
The research trip to Zambia was supported by a G-COE
Overseas Research Grant. I would like to express mydeepest thanks here. Moreover, I am extremely grateful to
my assistant, Mr. Katundu, for his help with the household
survey. Finally, I would like to thank respondents, theirfamilies, and those in the survey villages for their
enthusiastic participation in the survey.

Villagers transporting harvested maize home from the fieldusing ox cart

3

The Global COE Research Workshop
Hiroshi Morita
COE Young Researcher
Department of Economics, Hitotsubashi University
As part of the Global COE Hi-Stat Program,demand shocks by imposing sign restrictions in a

Hitotsubashi University holds a Global COE Research

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)

Workshop at fixed intervals that provides young

model.

researchers with an opportunity to present theirmacroeconomics.

DSGE

modelsarewidelyusedinresearch. These workshops differ from seminars andThus, while the aim of the research is relatively

other workshops generally held within the university forstraightforward and easy to understand, when it comes

each research field in that they span all fields ofto the methodology used for analysis, individual

research. Therefore, one week, the presentation might

researchers will often use the techniques that they arefocus on empirical research using micro data, while ingood at, but which may be unfamiliar to researchers

another week, the presentation might deal with afrom other fields.

theoretical analysis consisting of hardly intelligible

the presentation and handouts requires considerable

mathematical equations, so that in practice one may

effort to provide figures for illustration that allow

hear about research in a variety of fields. Moreover,scholars from other fields to understand complex

when presenting a paper oneself, one may receive

methodologies. In the presentation I gave in June, I

comments from new points of view from different fields,

provided an outline of the VAR model with sign

so that these workshops provide an extremely

restrictions using the blackboard and, moreover, wentproductive experience. Here, I would like to present an

to great lengths to prepare handouts presenting aoverview of the Global COE Research Workshop bylarge number of graphs of estimation results tofocusing on my own presentation on June 14th, 2012.

facilitate an intuitive understanding. To be able to

The title of the paper I presented at the Global COE

explain one's research to those from other fields

Research Workshop this year is “External Shocks andmakes it necessary to deepen one's understanding ofJapanesefrom

one's own field even further, so that the Global COE

Model-Based Sign Restriction VAR.” Summarizing the

Research Workshop provides an ideal opportunity forcontent of this research in one sentence, one could

practicing giving presentations. Many of the othersay that it consists of research seeking to clarify topresenters have also come up with ingenious ways towhat extent external shocks such as exchange rate

makeshocks and foreign demand shocks play a role inparticipants, so that when oneself is on the listeningchanges in Japan's economy. Given the impact ofside

negative external shocks on the Japanese economy inpresentations that are easy to follow.

Business

Cycles:Evidence

their
one

Consequently, the preparation ofresearch
gets

to

easy
hear

to

understandextremelyforinteresting

recent years such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers

Moreover, the professors leading the various

and the European financial crisis, I thought that thisresearch groups of the Global COE Program also

would be a very timely topic of interest to a great many

participate in the Global COE Research Workshops

people. However, in the analysis, I use a tool for time

when research falling into their field is presented.

series analysis called vector autoregression (VAR) and,

Although, as stated above, it is often illuminating tofurthermore, identify exchange rate and externalpresent one's research in front of people from other4

fields, which has the advantage that one receives

sure that their comments will be reflected in the futurecomments that differ from one's own perspective, it

research of other presenters as well.

also carries the danger that there are too few

Thus, the Global COE Research Workshop allows

comments from a specialist point of view. Therefore,

one to learn about research from fields other thanthe participation of professors who are experts in the

one's own and hence to broaden one's expertise, while

particular field of the presentation means that theat the same time it is a valuable opportunity for

Global COE Research Workshop is a place that helps

presenting

presenters to push their research to a higher level.

Furthermore, I think that because COE Youngandimproving

one's

own

research.

When I gave my presentation, the Workshop was

Researchers are obliged to give one presentation a

attended by Professor Toshiaki Watanabe of theyear, it is also an effective incentive for graduate

Institute of Economic Research (IER). Professor

students to focus their attention on research. The

Watanabe provided a great number of extremely

Global COE Research Workshop thus is a uniqueuseful comments for expanding the current research

institution, and while it will not turn us into geniuses, it

and for future research, such as proposing a different

provides a significant forum for young researchers to

DSGE-VAR approach from the one I used this time.

present our work.

The other professors also actively participate, and I am

Report on the Fudan-Hitotsubashi Economic Conference 2012
on
“Economic Development and the International Division of Labor in Asia: International
Comparison of Factor Costs and Productivity”
Tangjun Yuan
COE Visiting Scholar
Associate Professor, School of Economics, Fudan University
Director, Center for Asian Economic Research, Fudan University

On

March

2,

2012,

the

anniversary

of

the

Development and the International Division of Labor inestablishment of the Center for Asian Economic

Asia: International Comparison of Factor Costs andResearch at Fudan University, the Third International

Productivity.”

Conference of the Ministry of Education Project 985

The conference kicked off at 9am with a series of

was held. Hosted by the Center for Asian Economic

welcome addresses, chaired by the Director of the

Research, the conference was jointly organized withCenter for Asian Economic Research, Tangjun Yuan.

the Global COE Program “Research Unit for Empirical

Participants were warmly greeted by Fudan University

and Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences” ofVice President Lin Shangli, who particularly thanked

Hitotsubashi University and the Institute of World

visitors from abroad for their long journey to take part.

Economy of Fudan University. Its topic was “Economic

Next,

5

Zhang

Donggang,

Vice

DirectoroftheDepartment of Social Sciences of China's Ministry of

Finally, Professor Kyoji Fukao of Hitotsubashi

Education, extended his greetings. He argued that

University added his opening remarks, explaining that

economic development in Asia will be key to a global

the mission of Hitotsubashi's Global COE Program

economic recovery and talked about the challenge of

was to build a world-leading education and researchunderstanding changes in the approach to economic

center with a data archive at its core. Providing an

development against the background of economic

overview of the history of the IER in general and theglobalization. Moreover, he stated that China's Ministry

Global COE Program in particular, he then went on toof Education intends to provide even more financial

say that in order to continue the education andsupport over the coming 10 years to scholars doing

research activities, he would like to further promoteresearch on important issues related to the global andmutual exchange and research collaboration with

Chinese economies.

Chinese statistical bodies, top research institutions,

Next, Dong Lihua, Vice Director of the Department

and scholars.

of National Accounts of the National Bureau of

After the opening remarks, the first academic

Statistics, who stood in for the Deputy Commissioner

session of the conference, chaired by Professor Kyoji

of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Xu

Fukao, got underway. The first paper was presented

Xianchun, lauded the accomplishments of the Centerby Professor Harry Wu (Hitotsubashi University) andfor Asian Economic Research. He explained that while

focused on “The 'Productivity Race' in Manufacturing

statistical work naturally is one important task of the

between China and India During the Time of Reform,

Statistics Bureau, this work is closely related to

1980-2005.”

theoretical research, and he therefore hoped that theimplementing their respective economic reforms, both

two would mutually fertilize each other. Next, the Dean

countries have experienced unprecedented economicof the Fudan University School of Economics, Zhigang

growth that has garnered worldwide attention, and theYuan, thanked participants for taking part in theeconomic efficiency of both countries has had a major

conference and for their support for the Center. Whileimpact on natural resource use and developments inlooking back at the history of Fudan University's

factor costs in the world economy. While at the time of

Institute of World Economy since its establishment, hetheir respective reforms per capita GDP in both

highlighted some of the challenges facing Asia in its

countries was comparable, the subsequent growtheconomic development, observing that in the current

path of the two countries differed substantially, andglobalespecially in China, major changes could be observed.

economicsituation,

research

on

Asian

economies is extremely important.

The

paper

argued

that

since

Although China's total factor productivity in the

The next person to speak was Professor Hua Min,

manufacturing sector overall overtook India's between

the Director of the Institute of World Economy at Fudan

2002 and 2008, India still retained a productivity

University. Focusing on his area of specialization, headvantage in sectors such as food products andexplained in detail one of the ideas presented in his

electrical

paper dealing with Asia's initial conditions in terms ofdevelopments is that China was better at mobilizing

its history and culture. Specifically, he argued that theresources through its industrial government policies,

development model of what used to be the poorest

but

continent in the world, i.e., Asia, as well as theinefficiencies that meant that the growth spurts theysignificant obstacles the continent currently faces ingenerated were temporary and not sustainable. Further,terms of achieving sustainable development andhe argued that with the deepening of reforms,

pursuing globalization, need to be considered in a

productivity in the two countries can be expected tohistorical and cultural context.

converge.

6

these

equipment.

policies

The

also

reasonresulted

for

in

these

allocative

Commenting on the paper, Professor Hua Min of theChinese economy. Professor Wu, using panel data

Institute of World Economy noted that the study

and employing a stochastic frontier model, compared

provided numerous new findings not found in thethe efficiency of carbon dioxide emissions of all

literature. In addition, he remarked that China andministries. The study, moreover, found that secondary

India provided good material for a comparative study,

industry consumes large amounts of resources andgiven that, historically, India had been completelythat the expansion of output has been accompanied bycolonized and has an economy that is relatively firmly

a rapid increase in carbon dioxide emissions and afounded on market principles, while on the other handdecrease in technical efficiency – a factor that

China needs to overcome institutional obstacles inindustrial policy needs to take into account.

order to advance market-oriented reforms.

The second session of the conference, which was

The next paper presented was by Professor Yuan

chaired by Professor Li Shi of Beijing Normal

Yuan of the Waseda Institute for Advanced Study andUniversity, who is the winner of the 2011 Sun Yefang

carried the title “Impact of Leverage on Investment by

Prize for Economics, focused on the topic ofMajor Shareholders: Evidence from Listed Firms ininternational trade, in particular on China's place in the

China.” Using data from 1999-2006, she comparedinternational division of labor, the division of labor in

China's stock markets with those of advanced

Asia, and globalization. The first paper presented wascountries such as Japan and South Korea andby Professor Tomohiko Inui (Economic and Social

highlighted problems in the development of China's

Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government ofstock markets. The novelty of this study when

Japan) with the title “Effects of Privatization oncompared with existing studies is that it focuses on firm

Exporting Decisions through Changes in Productivity,

characteristics. Professor Yuan divided firms into

Firm Size and Financial Factors: An Empirical Analysis

centrallocal

Based on Chinese Manufacturing Firm Data.” Thegovernment-owned enterprises, and non-state-owned

study examines the increase in China's exports fromenterprises, and found that there exists a negative

the angle of enterprise privatization. He provided a

relationship between leverage and firms' investment,

constructive explanation of how Chinese firms were

but that the effect of leverage varies depending on aable to raise labor productivity and of China's

firm's major shareholder, with leverage exerting apersistent trade surplus. Professor Tian Suhua (Fudan

disciplinary

government-owned

University) commented that this research provided aenterprises and non-state-owned enterprises, but notcompletely new perspective on China's exports andon central government-owned enterprises. Professor

trade surplus.

government-owned

effecton

local

enterprises,

Wu Libo (Fudan University) in his comment pointed out

The second paper of the session was presented bythat ownership patterns differ across industries andProfessor Luo Changyuan (Fudan University) andthat this factor needs to be taken into account.

carried the title “FDI: Grabbing Hand or Helping Hand?”The last paper of the first session was presented by

The author examined both the positive and theProfessor Wu Libo and was titled “Research on thenegative effects of FDI on overcoming financing

Efficiency of Carbon Dioxide Emission by Ministry inconstraints. The study suggests that FDI acts as a

China.” China currently faces severe environmental

signal and can help overcome financing constraints

and resource problems. Reflecting this, the National

faced by Chinese firms. The paper therefore provides

Development and Reform Commission has set targets

theoretical support for additional liberalization policies

for each ministry by how it must reduce energy use

and policies for collaboration with foreign capital.

and cut emissions, which has important implications

Professor Inui in his comment provided suggestions forfor the possibility of sustainable development of thevarious improvements.

7

Next, Professor Dazhong Chen (Fudan University)in the study were extremely interesting, and the paper

presented his paper entitled “Product and Destination

provided numerous proposals for government policy

Mix in Export Markets: Chinese Industrial Firm-leveland for achieving a “Harmonious Society.”

Evidence.” Through research on export methods and

The second paper presented research by Kyoji

partner countries, he provides stylized facts on the

Fukao (Hitotsubashi University) and Tangjun Yuan

Chinese characteristics of exporting firms and makes(Fudan University) on “Regional Inequality andproposals for improvements in trade policy. The

Industrial Structures in Pre-War Japan: An Analysis

discussant of the paper was Professor Keiko Ito of

Based on New Prefectural GDP Estimates.” The paper

Senshu University.

examines changes in economic differences among

The final paper of the second session was that by

Japan's prefectures from a long-term perspective andKeiko Ito on “Skilled Labor Embodied in Trade andprovides insights useful for considering historical

Human Capital Deepening in China.” This studychanges in China's economy.

pointed out that the amount of human capital

The third paper, by Tokihiko Settsu (Musashi

embodied in China's export goods is quite small andUniversity), was on “Changing Occupational Structure

made made various suggestions how China could

and Sectoral Labour Productivity Differentials inraise the human capital embodied in its trade. The

Japan's Economic Growth Before World War II.” This

discussant of the paper, Professor Luo Changyuan

study provides a detailed classification of occupations(Fudan University), commended her study for its

at the level of the individual and fills a gap in researchcontribution.

on labor productivity in Japan during the prewar period,
therebyprovidingusefulreferencematerial

forconsidering employment issues with regard to rural
workers in China.
The final paper was that by Harry Wu and Tangjun
Yuan under the title “Has Resource Allocation in China
Been in Line with Productivity Performance? An
Industry Level Analysis.” The paper provides a newperspective on China's high-speed growth since thebeginning of reforms and the opening to the outside
world as well as on the sustainability of high-speed
growth. Based on this new perspective, the study
develops a theoretical interpretation of China's present
economic growth that provides a theoretical basis for
The third session on March 3 took place in theconference

room

of

the

JingyuanHotelunderstanding resource allocation, economic growth,inand policy making in China.

Zhujiajiazhen on the outskirts of Shanghai. Chaired by

At the end of this session, an extremely fruitful

Harry Wu and Tangjun Yuan, the session consisted of

discussion between participants from Hitotsubashi anda free discussion of four papers. The first paper

Fudan universities ensued. Participants expressed thepresented was that by Hiroshi Sato (Hitotsubashi

hope to build a solid basis for further cooperation

University), Li Shi (Beijing Normal University), and Yue

between the two universities in the future and

Ximing (Renmin University of China) on “Housingpromised to work toward deepening the friendly

Ownership,

relations between leading universities in Japan andIncomes,andInequality

in

China,

2002-2007.” The changes in income distribution shown

China.

8

The program of the Fudan-Hitotsubashi Economic

found online at:

Conference 2012 “Economic Development and the

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/information/schedule/pdf/Fud

International Division of Labor in Asia: International

an-Hitotsubashi_Conference_2012.pdf

Comparison of Factor Costs and Productivity” can be

Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Papers (January 2012－July 2012)
No. 215 (January 2012) Ken Miura, Hiromitsu Kanno,

No. 224 (February 2012) Takeshi Nishimura, “Scoring

and Takeshi Sakurai, “Livestock Transactions as

Auction by an Informed Principal.”

Coping Strategies in Zambia: New Evidence fromNo.

High-Frequency Panel Data.”

No.

World War I.”

Nexus:

226(February“Multidimensional

No. 217 (January 2012) Loren Brandt, Debin Ma, andRawski,“From

Divergence

2012)

ShuheiNew

Evidence

2012)

KazuyaPolitical

to

Non-Homogeneous Regressors.”

2012)

TakeshiNiizeki,an

AnticipatedFiscalPolicyChangeswith“Redistributive Impacts of Personal Income Tax in

No. 219 (January 2012) Hiroshi Morita, “ExpansionaryofStructural

No. 228 (March 2012) Ximing Yue and Jing Xu,“Energy-Saving Technological Change in Japan.”
Effectwith

No. 227 (February 2012) Eiji Kurozumi, “Testing for

China’s Economic Boom.”(January

Kikuchi,

Non-Common Beliefs.”
Multiple

218

from

Competition

Convergence: Re-evaluating the History BehindNo.

Nishitateno,

Product-Level Data.”

Philippine National Bank and Credit Inflation afterG.

(February“FDI-Trade

No. 216 (January 2012) Yoshiko Nagano, “TheThomas225

Urban China” (in Chinese).

on

No. 229 (March 2012) Ximing Yue, Jing Xu, and Qian

Consumption in Japan.”Liu, “Weakened Redistributive Impacts of PersonalNo. 220 (January 2012) Hiroyuki Kasahara, Katsumi

Income Tax in Urban China: Evaluation of the

Shimotsu, and Michio Suzuki, “Does an R&D Tax

Personal Income Tax Reform Implemented in

Credit Affect R&D Expenditure? The Japanese Tax

September 2011” (in Chinese).

Credit Reform in 2003.”

No. 230 (March 2012) Yukinobu Kitamura and Takeshi

No. 221 (February 2012) Binkai Chen, Ming Lu, andNinghuaZhong,“HukouandMiyazaki, “Income Inequality and Evaluation of Tax

Consumption

Effect on Redistribution of Income in Japan

Heterogeneity: Migrants’ Expenditure Is Depressed

1984-2004” (in Japanese).

by Institutional Constraints in Urban China.”

No. 231 (March 2012) Motoi Kusadokoro, Takeshi

No. 222 (February 2012) Hiroshi Sato and Sai Ding,“LocalPublic

Goods

Provision

in

Maru,

the

and

Masanori

Takashima,“AssetAccumulation Behavior of Rural Households in the

Post-Agricultural Tax Era in Rural China.”

Reconstruction

Periodfollowing

the

Showa

No. 223 (February 2012) Masanori Takashima,

Depression: A Panel Data Analysis Using the Third“Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in

Period MAF Survey of Farm Household Economy”

Ancient Japan: A Quantitative Analysis of Arable(in Japanese).

Land, Land Productivity and Agricultural Output” (inNo. 232 (April 2012)

Japanese).

Jouchi Nakajima and Toshiaki

Watanabe, “Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive9Model: A Survey with the Application to theJapanese).

Japanese Macroeconomic Data” (in Japanese).

No. 237 (July 2012) Takeshi Nishimura, “BundlingNo. 233 (May 2012) Taisuke Uchino and Iichiro Uesugi,

Decision in Procurement Auctions with Risk-Averse“The Effects of a Megabank Merger on Firm-Bank

Suppliers.”

Relationships and Borrowing Costs.”

No. 238 (July 2012) Takeshi Nishimura, “Optimal

No. 234 (May 2012) Takako Kimura, “Nuclear Energy

Design of Scoring Auction with Multidimensional

in Asia: Safety Post-Fukushima."

Quality.”No. 235 (June 2012) Ichiro Iwasaki, “Long-Term

No. 239 (July 2012) Kazuhiro Kumo, “Mortality Trends

Development Path of the Second Industry in Central

in Russia Revisited: A Survey.”

Asia” (in Japanese).
No. 236 (July 2012) Lee Hun-Chang, “The Korean

Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series

Economy in the Eighteenth Century: Laying the

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/research/discussion/index.html

Foundation for Modern Economic Growth” (inSeminars and Conferences (January 2012－July 2012)st241 (January 5, 2012)

Eiichi Tomiura (Yokohama National University),th

35 Global COE Research Workshop“Multi-plant Operation and Corporate Headquarters

Akiko Nasuda (Hitotsubashi University), “The Effects

Separation: Evidence from Plant-level Data”th

245 (January 19, 2012)of Firm Entry on Household Labor Supply Behavior”

th

37 Global COE Research Workshop(in Japanese)nd242 (January 10, 2012)

Masanori Takashima, “Agricultural Production andWorkshop on International Trade and FDI

Economic Growth in Ancient Japan: A Quantitative

co-organized with the Industrial Organization andAnalysis of Arable Land, Land Productivity andLabor Economics Workshop and the Tokyo Center

Agricultural Output” (in Japanese)th

246 (January 24, 2012)

for Economic Research (TCER) Seminar
Shuhei Nishitateno (Australian National University),

Industrial“Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment

Workshopand Exports: New Evidence from Product-Level

co-organized with the TCER Seminar

Data”

Kotaro Tsuru (Research Institute of Economy, Traderdand Industry), “An Empirical Analysis on thethHappiness of Japanese Non-Regular Workers and243 (January 12, 2012)36 Global COE Research Workshop
Ken

Miura

(Hitotsubashi

University),“Who

PolicyPurchases Weather Index Insurance? ― Results

for

Labor

Improving

Economics

Workers'th

247 (January 26, 2012)thth

244 (January 17, 2012)
Organization

Implications

andWell-being” (in Japanese)from a Field Experiment in Rural Zambia”
Industrial

Organization

38 Global COE Research Workshop
and

Labor

Economics

KazuyaKikuchi(Hitotsubashi

University),Workshop“Subjective Beliefs and Satisfaction in Politicalco-organized with the TCER Seminar

Competition”

10

th

248 (January 27, 2012)
One-dayWorkshopco-organized with the Hitotsubashi University PolicyonIntangible

Investment,

Forum

Innovation and Productivity

Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University), Yukinobu

co-organized with the National Institute of Science

Kitamura (Hitotsubashi University), Hajime Takata

and Technology Policy (NISTEP); Research Institute(Mizuho Research Institute), Ryutaro Kawano (BNP

of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI); the project

Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited), Akira Ariyoshi

on “Empirical Research on Intangible Investment in(Hitotsubashi

Japan,” Gakushuin University; and the project on the(Hitotsubashi University), and Kazumasa Oguro“Impact of ICT Investment, Human Capital, and(Hitotsubashi University)

Market Dynamics on Japan's Service Sector

253 (February 18-19, 2012)

University),

Keiichiro

Kobayashird

Productivity,” RIETI/Nihon University

2012 Hitotsubashi GCOE Conference on Choice,Peter Goodridge (Imperial College Business School

Games, and Welfare

andco-organized with the Center for Research on

Ceriba),Ahmed

Bounfour(University

Paris-Sud), Hyunbae Chun (Sogang University),

Contemporary Economic Systems

Kyoji Fukao (Hitotsubashi University), Tsutomu

Hector Chade (Arizona State University), Yi-Chun

Miyagawa (Gakushuin University), Chiara Criscuolo

Chen (National University of Singapore), Jihong Lee(OECD), Mariagrazia Squicciarini (OECD), Rene

(Seoul National University), Indrajit Ray (University

Belderbos (Catholic University), Kenta Ikeuchi

of Birmingham), Nicolas Sahuguet (HEC Montreal),(NISTEP), Keun Lee (Seoul National University),

Olivier Tercieux (Paris School of Economics), andHyeog Ug Kwon (Nihon University), and others

Katsutoshi Wakai (Kyoto University)thth

249 (January 31, 2012)

254 (February 16,17, 20, 21, and 22, 2012)

International Exchange Seminar

Global COE Economic Statistics Intensive Seminarco-organized with the Industrial Organization and

Hirokuni

Labor Economics Workshop and the TCER Seminar

University), ”Bayesian Econometrics: Application to

Paul Jensen (University of Melbourne), “Estimating

Microeconomics

the Patent Premium: Evidence from the AustralianJapanese)

Iiboshiand(TokyoMetropolitan

Macroeconomics”

(in

th

255 (February 27, 2012)

Inventor Survey”thth

250 (February 1, 2012)

4

Global COE Lecture

General Meeting for the Global COE Hi-Stat

Programth

256 (March 2, 2012)

co-organized with the Center for Research onContemporary Economic Systems

Winter International Trade Seminar (WITS)Paul Jensen (University of Melbourne), “Patents andco-organized with a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific

Scientific Progress”

Research (A) project and Otaru University ofst

251 (February 6, 2012)th

4

WorkshoponCommerce
AsianHistoricalthStatistics

257 (March 1-3, 2012)(ASHSTAT)

Fudan-Hitotsubashi Economic Conference 2012

Yi-Taek Park (Seoul University), “Occupational“Economic Development and the International

Structure and Industrialization in Korea from 1910 toDivision of Labor in Asia: International Comparison

1990”

of Factor Costs and Productivity”nd

252 (February 15, 2012)

co-organized with the Center for Asian Economic

Open Forum: “Global Government Debt Crisis andResearch and the Institute of World Economy,

Financial Turmoil”

Fudan University

11

th

258 (March 6-7, 2012)

Woojin Lee (Korea University), Michele Lombardi

Mini Workshop on Philippine Historical Economic(University

Statistics(University of California at Riverside), Tatsuyoshi

Konosuke Odaka (Hitotsubashi University), Jorge

Saijo

Primavera (Kyoto University), Yoshiko Nagano(University of Groningen), and Roberto Veneziani(Kanagawa University), Eto Keiya (Hitotsubashi(University of London, Queen Mary)andMihokoTakahama

Surrey),(OsakaPrasata

University),

MartinVan

Hees

Hitotsubashi GCOE Workshop on International

Daigo

Trade and FDIth

259 (March 9, 2012)

co-organized with the Center for Research on

Hitotsubashi University Symposium “One Year sinceContemporary

theInternational Exchange Seminar

Earthquake:

Pattanaikth(Hitotsubashi University)

TohokuK.

264 (March 18, 2012)

University), Germelino Bautista (Ateneo de Manila
University),of'Kizuna'and

PolicyEconomic

SystemsandtheInnovation,

and

th

265 (March 22, 2012)

Challenges for Recovery”
Eiji Tajika (Hitotsubashi University), Motohiro Sato

WorkshoponStartups,(Hitotsubashi

University),

Kazumasa

Oguro

University-Industry-Government(Hitotsubashi

University),

MakotoSaito

Collaboration(Hitotsubashi

University),

Takeo

Research

Kikkawa

Hiroyuki Okamuro (Hitotsubashi University), Yuji

(Hitotsubashi University), and Yukinobu Kitamura

Honjo (Chuo University), Masatoshi Kato (Kwansei(Hitotsubashi University)

Gakuin University), Junichi Nishimura (Hitotsubashith

260 (March 9, 2012)

University), and Kenta Ikeuchi (NISTEP)th

266 (March 27, 2012)

Economic Statistics Seminar for Young Researchers
co-organized with the Grant-in-Aid for ScientificIndustrial

Research (A) Project on “Bayesian EconometricWorkshopAnalysis of Financial Risk and Economic Behavior”

co-organized with the TCER Seminarst

Organization

and

Labor

Economics

261 (March 14, 2012)

Byoung Heon Jun (Korea University) and Elmar G.

Global COE Seminar

Wolfstetter (Humboldt University of Berlin), “Security

co-organized with TCER, the Center for Research

Bid Auctions for Agency Contracts”th267 (March 28-29, 2012)

on Contemporary Economic Systems, and theInternational Exchange Seminar

GCOE

Andrew B. Bernard (Tuck School of Business at

Econometrics

Dartmouth), “Carry-Along Trade”

Takashi Yamagata (University of York), “Recentnd

262 (March 15-17, 2012)

LectureSerieson

Statistics

andDevelopment of Panel Data Analysis”th

268 (March 29-30, 2012)

Empirical Investigations in Trade and Investment
Conference

The 1st Mini Lecture Series on Analytical Politicalco-organized with Keio University’s Global COE

EconomyProgramPeter Skott (University of Massachusetts Amherst),rd263 (March 16-17, 2012)“Behavioral and Structuralist Macro Models”th

269 (April 10, 2012)

Global COE Hitotsubashi Conference on Equality
and Welfare

Industrial

Walter Bossert (University of Montreal), Reiko Gotoh

Workshop(Ritsumeikan

Daiji Kawaguchi (Hitotsubashi University), “Fewer

University),

Toru

Hokari(Keio

Organization

andSchool Days, More Inequality”

University), Biung-Ghi Ju (Seoul National University),

12

Labor

Economicsth

270 (April 19, 2012)

Speed

Global COE Seminar

of

in

a

Dynamic

and

Labor

Economics(TokyoKeizaiUniversity),Heckscher-Ohlin Model”th277 (May 22, 2012)

Lee Hun-Chang (Korea University), “The Korean
Economy in the Eighteenth Century: Laying theIndustrial

Foundation for Modern Economic Growth” (inWorkshop

Japanese)

Toshifumist271 (April 24, 2012)
Industrial

Convergence

Organization
Kuroda“Analysis of the Role of International Network

Organization

and

Labor

Economics

Effects

Workshoponthe

Diffusionof

3G

MobileCommunication Networks”th

278 (June 5, 2012)

Jess Diamond (Bank of Japan), “Employment Status

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

Persistence in the Japanese Labor Market”
nd

272 (May 7-8, 2012)

co-organized

with

the

International

Exchange

The XVIth World Economic History Congress,

SeminarSession 79

Hirokazu

Tokyo Pre-Conference “Comparative Levels of

Economic Studies, Bank of Japan), “Trade in

Welfare and Productivity in History”

Polarized America: the Border Effect between Red

Harry X. Wu (Hitotsubashi University), Herman J. de

States and Blue States” (with Miwa Matsuo)

Jong(UniversityofGroningen),

Kyoji

and

th

Akira
Labor

Monetary

39 Global COE Research Workshop

rd

and

for

th

273 (May 8, 2012)
Organization(Institute279 (June 7, 2012)

Fukao(Hitotsubashi University), and others
Industrial

IshiseEconomics

Sasahara(Hitotsubashi

University),“Multi-Product Firms, Technological Difference, andWorkshop

Trade Liberalization”th

280 (June 12, 2012)

Koichiro Ito (Stanford University), “Do Consumers
Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence

Industrialfrom Nonlinear Electricity Pricing”

Workshopth274 (May 15, 2012)

Organization

and

Labor

Economics

co-organized with the Workshop on International

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

Trade and FDI

Tran Lam Anh Duong (Hitotsubashi University),Toshiyuki Matsuura (Institute for Economic and“Optimal Infant Industry Protection in Transition to

Industrial Studies, Keio University), “Vertical FDI and

the World Trade Organization Membership: A

Firm

Numerical Analysis for the Vietnamese Motorcycle

Firm-level Data”

Heterogeneity:

Evidence

fromJapanesest281 (June 14, 2012)

Industry”thth

275 (May 18, 2012)40 Global COE Research Workshop

Public Economics Workshop

Hiroshi Morita (Hitotsubashi University), “External

Shinichi Nishiyama (Georgia State University), “TheShocks and Japanese Business Cycles: Evidence

Joint Labor Supply Decision of Married Couples andfrom Model-Based Sign Restriction VAR”nd

282 (June 14, 2012)

the Social Security Pension System”
th276 (May 22, 2012)

Workshop on Economic Theory

Workshop on International Trade and FDI
co-organized

with

the

International

co-organized
Exchange

with

the

International

Exchange

SeminarSeminarHikmet Gunay (University of Manitoba), “Exposure

E. Young Song (Sogang University), “Trade and the

Problem in Multi-Unit Auctions” (with Xin Meng)

13

rd

283 (June 20, 2012)

SeminarWorkshop on Economic Theory
co-organized

with

the

Peter Schott (Yale School of Management), “Trade

International

Exchange

Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform:

Seminar

Evidence from Chinese Exporters”th

290 (June 28, 2012)

Nizar Allouch (Queen Mary, University of London),nd“A Competitive Equilibrium for a Warm Glow

42 Global COE Research Workshop

Economy”

Eiji Sato (Hitotsubashi University), “Consolidationthand Scale Economies in the Japanese SeweragestIndustry”

284 (June 21, 2012)41 Global COE Research Workshop
ShuichiTsugawa(Hitotsubashist

291 (July 2-3, 2012)

University),th

Annual Meeting of the Asia Pacific Trade“Interactive Implementation from Two Viewpoints:

8

Simpler Monotonicity and Two-Agent Case”

Seminars (APTS)th

285 (June 21, 2012)

held at Singapore Management Universitynd292 (July 5, 2012)

Workshop on Economic Theory
co-organized

with

the

Internationalrd

43 Global COE Research Workshop

Exchange

SeminarDashtseren Khashbaatar (Hitotsubashi University),

Naoki Watanabe (University of Tsukuba), “On“Efficient Test in Mixture Models”rd

293 (July 5, 2012)

Weighted Voting Experiments”
Yukio Koriyama (Ecole Polytechnique), “OptimalWorkshop on Economic Theory

Apportionment”

co-organizedth

286 (June 22, 2012)
with

the

International

Exchange

SeminarEconomic Development Workshop
co-organized

with

the

CenterDaisukeforEconomic

Nakajima(UniversityofMichigan),“Revealed Willpower” (with Yusufcan Masatlioglu

Institutions

and Emre Ozdenoren) and “Exploiting Naive

Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr., (University of theConsumers with Limited Willpower” (with Yusufcan

Philippines) “Some Issues in Philippine Economic

Masatlioglu)th294 (July 5-6, 2012)

Development”th287 (June 26, 2012)

Asia KLEMS Database Management Workshop

Workshop on International Trade and FDI
co-organized

with

the

International

co-organized
Exchange

with

the

Centerfor

National

Competitiveness, Seoul National University; Korea

Seminar

Productivity Center; Research Institute of Economy,

Kaz Miyagiwa (Florida International University)

Trade and Industry (RIETI); and the project on“Who's Afraid of FTAs? Free Trade Areas and World“Empirical Research on Intangible Investment in

Welfare”

Japan,” Gakushuin Universitythth

288 (June 26, 2012)
Industrial

295 (July 12, 2012)

Organization

and

Labor

th

44 Global COE Research Workshop

Economics

Workshop

Yoko Sakamoto (Hitotsubashi University), “TheYuji Genda (University of Tokyo), “An Analysis ofConclusion

Solitary Non-Employed Persons” (in Japanese)

Agreements under Incomplete Information“ (inth

289 (June 27, 2012)
withInternational

Environmental

Japanese)th296 (July 12, 2012)

Workshop on International Trade and FDI
co-organized

of

the

International

GCOE

Exchange

14

LectureSerieson

Statistics

andEconometrics“The Market for Deceptive Products”th

300 (July 28, 2012)

Mototsugu Shintani (Vanderbilt University), “Recent

Applied Microeconometrics Workshop

Development in Nonlinear Cointegration”th297 (July 17, 2012)

Daiji Kawaguchi (Hitotsubashi University), Yukinobu

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

Kitamura

co-organized with the Center for Research on

Kurosaki (Hitotsubashi University), Kyosuke Kurita

Contemporary Economic Systems(Kwansei Gakuin University), Norifumi Yukutake

Cheng Chen (Princeton University), “Heterogeneous(Housing Research and Advancement Foundation

Firms with Agency Problem-Theory and Evidence”

of(Hitotsubashi

Japan),

Hiroyuki

University),

OkamuroTakashi(Hitotsubashith

University), Kenta Ikeuchi (NISTEP), Iichiro Uesugith

45 Global COE Research Workshop(Hitotsubashi

Ryo Makioka (Hitotsubashi University), “The Impact(Hitotsubashi University), Reiko Aoki (Hitotsubashi

on Invisible Handshake: Free Trade, Technological

University), Akira Sasahara (Hitotsubashi University),

Change”

and Yuko Mori (Japan Society for the Promotion of

298 (July 19, 2012)th299 (July 24, 2012)

University),

Takeshi

Sakurai

Science)

Contract Theory Workshop East (CTWE)
co-organized with the Workshop on Economic

Past Seminars

Theory and the Industrial Organization and Labor

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/events/past_seminars/index.html

Economics Workshop
Takeshi Murooka (University of California, Berkeley),AwardsJapan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)

Sakurai, Program Member of the Program, won the

Prize

Best Poster Award at the 2012 Annual Meeting of theProf. Chiaki Moriguchi, Program Member of the GlobalthAgricultural Economics Society of Japan. They(FY 2011)

delivered a poster presentation of their research, “WhoJapan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)

Purchases Weather Index Insurance? Results from a

Prize forField Experiment in Rural Zambia.”

COE Hi-Stat Program, received the 8herresearch,“Comparative Historical

Analysis of Institutional Developments in the USA andJapan.”

Economist Prize, Mainichi Shimbun
Prof. Motohiro Sato, Program Member of the Global

Best

PosterAward,

Agricultural

COE Hi-Stat Program, received the 52

Economics

nd(FY 2011)

Society of Japan

Economist Prize (Mainichi Shimbun) for his book “TheMr. Ken Miura, COE Visiting Young Scholar of the

Economics of Local Tax Reform” (Nikkei Publishing

Global COE Hi-Stat Program, and Prof. Takeshi

Inc., 2011)15

Ph.D. Conferments (Economics, Hitotsubashi University, FY2011)
Underlined Chief Supervisors are G-COE Hi-Stat Program Members.

Chief Supervisor: Toshiaki Watanabe

Photchanaprasert Nuttapon (FY2010-2011 COE
Young Researcher)
Dissertation Title: “An Analysis on Offshoring andShirata Yasuhiro (FY2011 COE Young Researcher)Welfare”

Dissertation Title: “Trading in Networked Markets”

Date of Award: July 13, 2011

Date of Award: March 23, 2012

Chief Supervisor: Jota Ishikawa

Chief Supervisor: Akira Okada

Naohisa Hirakata

Yuko Mori (FY2011 COE Young Researcher)

Dissertation Title: “Essays on Dynamic General

Dissertation

Equilibrium Modeling and Empirical Analyses ofminshuteki sho-kino: Indo no senkyo to seito ni

Macroeconomics”

kansuru jissho-bunseki” [Democratic Functions in a

Date of Award: September 30, 2011

Pluralistic Society: An Empirical Analysis of India’s

Chief Supervisor: Etsuro Shioji

Elections and Political Parties]*

Title:“Tagenteki

shakaini

okeru

Date of Award: March 23, 2012
Varattaya

Jangkrajarng(FY2009

COE

Chief Supervisor: Takeshi Sakurai

Young

Researcher)
Dissertation Title: “Empirical Studies on Strategic

Kei Nanamiya (FY2008-2011 Research Assistant)Alliances in the Airline Industry”

Dissertation Title: “Wavelet Analysis for Long Memory

Date of Award: October 31, 2011

Processes”

Chief Supervisor: Kyoji Fukao

Date of Award: March 23, 2012
Chief Supervisor: Katsuto Tanaka

Yoshihiro Ohtsuka
Dissertation

Title:“An

Application

to

Macro

*The original title of the dissertation in Japanese is given italics. The

Econometrics with Spatio-Temporal Model”

title in square brackets is a provisional translation by the editorial

Date of Award: March 23, 2012team of the Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter.

Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter No. 8 (August 2012)
Issued by Hitotsubashi University Global COE Program
Research Unit for Statistical and Empirical Analysis in Social Sciences
c/o Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603 Japan
Tel: +81-42-580-8386
Fax: +81-42-580-8333
E-mail: GCOE-info@ier.hit-u.ac.jp
URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/

16