Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter

No. 4 (July 2010)

Contents
Report on the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Conference on Frontiers in Structural
Macroeconomic ModelingToshiaki Watanabe...1

Report on the Global COE International Seminar on Public Economics
Love Affairs with Chinese and Japanese Numbers

Motohiro Sato...3

Harry Wu...5

Discussion Papers ...10
Seminars and Conferences ...11
Awards …14
Ph.D. Conferments …14

Report on the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Conference on Frontiers in
Structural Macroeconomic Modeling: Thirty Years after “Macroeconomics and Reality” and Five
Years after “Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy”
Toshiaki WatanabeGroup Leader, Statistical Theory
Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

On January 23 and 24, 2010, the Statistical Theory
Group of Hitotsubashi University's Global COE
Program “Research Unit for Statistical and Empirical
Analysis in Social Sciences” (G-COE Hi-Stat), jointlywith the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studiesof the Bank of Japan, held an international conferenceon macroeconomic and macroeconometric modelingat Hitotsubashi University's Mercury Tower. Three
keynote speeches, two lectures by invitation, and ten
papers were presented and the conference attracted
94 participants. The lectures and papers were so
excellent that it was difficult to confine the ensuing
discussions to the time frame they were allotted.

Professor Sims delivering his keynote speech1and Evans (referred to as the “CEE model” below)
Models used for macroeconometric analysis canprincipallybedividedinto

twotypes:

using MCMC methods. Because DSGE models arevectorfirmly based in theory, incorporating, for example,

autoregressive (VAR) models and dynamic stochastic

dynamic

general equilibrium (DSGE) models. This year, 2010,

consumers and maximization of expected profits byis thirty years since Christopher Sims (Princeton

firms, they have the advantage that it is easy to

University) published “Macroeconomics and Reality,”

identify shocks and, moreover, that it is possible toan important paper on VAR models, in Econometrica,

estimate the structural parameters that will not be

and five years since Laurence Christiano, Martin

affected by policy changes. However, the data fit ofEichenbaum (both from Northwestern University), andDSGE models has been found to be not as good asCharles Evans (President of the Federal Reservethat of VAR models, which are not constrained by

Bank of Chicago) published “Nominal Rigidities andmacroeconomic theory. Against this backdrop, Smets

the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy,”

and Wouters showed that the data fit of the CEE

an important paper in the field of DSGE models, in themodel, which adds various frictions such as price andJournal of Political Economy. Commemorating thesewage rigidities, habit formation in consumption, andpublications, Prof. Sims, Prof. Christiano, and Prof.

adjustment costs in investment, is almost identical toEichenbaum were invited to the conference asthat of the VAR model. Sparked by this finding, DSGE

keynote speakers.

models have been widely used since then, particularly

maximizationof

expected

utilitybyby central banks. Another reason for the rapid spreadis the development of Dynare, a free software thatmakes the MCMC estimation of DSGE models easy
and was developed by Michel Juillard (Bank of France,
CEPREMAP), an organizer of this conference.
To digress briefly, it was from Prof. Sims, who was
my supervisor at Yale University, that I learned the useof MCMC methods, while Prof. Smets was aclassmate of mine at Yale.
The other papers were chosen on the basis of a callfor papers in the Journal of Economic Dynamics andControl,aninternational

academicjournal. We

received 109 applications, from which four of theorganizers, namely Michel Juillard, Ippei Fujiwara

Professor Christiano delivering his keynote speech(Bank of Japan), Shigenori Shiratsuka (Bank of Japan),
Siddhartha Chib (Washington University) and Frankand Toshiaki Watanabe selected ten papers afterSmets (European Central Bank) were also invited as

careful consideration. The selected authors include

speakers. A main feature of macroeconometricleading researchers in the field of macroeconomic andanalysis in recent years has been the use of Markov

macroeconometric modeling such as Marco Del Negro

Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimation.

(Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Jinill Kim

Prof. Chib is an internationally respected authority on(Federal

MCMC methods, while Prof. Smets together with Prof.

(European Central Bank).

Reserve

Board)

andGianni

AmisanoRaf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) estimated the

The papers can be broadly divided into two groups.

DSGE model developed by Christiano, Eichenbaum

The first group consists of model refinements. In

2particular, a number of papers, reflecting the financial

Research (A) project on the “Econometric Analysis ofcrisis and subsequent deterioration in employment

Macroeconomic Policies under the Financial Crisis,”conditions in recent years, attempted to model

which I lead, will continue to work together withfinancial and credit markets as well as the labor

researchers in macroeconomics and finance in themarket in greater detail. The second group of papers

other groups of the G-COE Hi-Stat program in order tois concerned with the refinement of econometriccontinue pushing ahead with research in this field. We

methods.

plan to hold a similar conference in 2012, the final

More

specifically,

papersconsideredefficient MCMC algorithms for the estimation of DSGE

year

models, methods of estimating nonlinear DSGE

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research. Since there weremodels, and analytical methods incorporating a zeroa large number of applications for this conference, I

lower bound on nominal interest rates or Markov

did not present a paper myself and only served as

Switching into DSGE models. The content of thesechair and discussant, but at the next conference, I

papers is valuable not only for macroeconomists, butwould like to give a paper and present the results ofalso for econometricians. Details can be found in the

my own work. Also, to foster greater understanding of

papers and presentation slides, which can be

this field in Japan, I explained it at tutorial sessions ofdownloaded fromthe 2009 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting at

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/JEDC2010/program.html.

Doshisha

The papers presented at the conference are currently

Economic Association Spring Meeting at Chiba

being more carefully reviewed, and a selection of

University. (For more details, please refer to thethem will be published in a special issue of the Journal

presentation materials in Japanese on the followingof Economic Dynamics and Control.

website:of the G-COE Hi-Stat program

University

and

the

2010

and theJapanese

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/information/schedule/schedul

This kind of macroeconomic and macroeconometricanalysis is an important field not only from an

elog/index.html)

academic standpoint but also for policymakers inJapanese speakers at the conference this time, I hopeconsidering macroeconomic policy such as monetarythat research in this area will advance in Japan so thatand fiscal policies. Therefore, the Statistical Theory

we will see more Japanese speakers at the next

Group of the G-COE Hi-Stat program and the Ministry

conference.

of

Education,

Culture,Technology-funded

Sports,Grant-in-Aid

ScienceforandScientific3

Although

there

were

only

two

Report on the Global COE International Seminar on Public Economics
Motohiro Sato
Regional Studies/Market Analysis Group
Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University

The global economy, including Japan, has reached aextended to policies other than taxation, such as

threshold. The development of a global economy inpublic goods and benefits in kind.

which people, goods, and capital move freely across

New policy challenges can be addressed using

borders is presenting new challenges to the ability ofthese new analytical methods or theories. In thegovernments to impose and collect taxes. A higher

Global(effective) corporate tax rate than in other countries

Economics held on March 8, 2010, young researchers

may lead to an outflow of companies (capital) and thein public economics from Canada, Germany, andtransfer of corporate earnings. We have seen theFrance were invited to present the latest results ofemergence of international competition in taxation (i.e.,their work on the themes above and exchange

a race to reduce corporate tax rates) in a bid to avoid

opinions. In addition to the five foreign researchers,

such outcomes and instead attract foreign companies

one COE Young Researcher also presented a paper.

and investment. At the same time, many countries

Summaries of their papers are as follows:need to respond to declining fertility rates and haveJean-François Tremblay discussed an international

done so by expanding child support by granting cash

non-cooperative game of emission-reduction efforts

or in-kind benefits. The child allowance in Japan (ofand showed that if each country were to commit to a

13,000 yen a month) is one example. In addition,

scheme that provides a certain link between emission

globalbecoming

reductions of other countries and its own efforts, theincreasingly serious. This has given rise to the needsubgame perfect equilibrium would achieve Pareto

for a “strategic government response” by countries

optimality.

around the world as well as intergovernmental

jurisdictional setting (national – regional – local),cooperation

examined the effects of a reorganization (merger andenvironmental

onproblems

environmentalarepolicies

asan“international public good.”

COE

International

Marie-Laure

SeminarBreuillé,

in

on

a

Publictwo-tierwidening) of regional jurisdictions when taxation at

At the same time, there have been a number of neweach level of government (taxation on capital that istheoretical developments in the field of public

mobile between jurisdictions) gives rise to horizontal

economics.

ofand vertical tax externalities. Focusing on tax

non-cooperative games is, for example, widely appliedcompetition, Emmanuelle Taugourdeau showed that in

to models of tax competition. This framework is

the presence of strategic complementarity in regions’applied not only to simple Nash games but also to

choice of tax rate, all regions would be better off thanstrategic policy decisions among governments inin a Nash equilibrium (when all move at the same

subgame perfect equilibrium models in which thetime) if some behaved as leaders (first movers) in thedecision-making (moves) of players extends overgame. Next, Thomas Lange demonstrated that when

multiple stages. Another development is optimal tax

two countries (universities) compete for foreign

theory as second best in the context of asymmetricstudents and one chooses to offer high quality

information problems. Beginning with the nonlinear

education for high tuition fees, while the other chooses

optimal income tax of Mirrlees (1971) and going

low quality education and low tuition fees, the result isthrough Stiglitz (1982), optimal tax theory has been

an

The

analyticalframework4

asymmetricequilibriumthat

avoidsdirectcompetition(segmentedcompetition).

Junichiro

Systems(http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~cces/dp.html).

Takahata (Hitotsubashi University) considered how

In addition, the visit of these overseas scholars

optimal taxation (subsidies for and taxation ofprovided an excellent opportunity to strengthen ourchildcare services) should be designed in theinternational research links and collaborate with thesepresence of household production of child care. Finally,scholars in the future.

Günther König analyzed the role of structural funds(for providing support for infrastructure construction in

The program of this conference is available on the

low-income

countries)

following website [PDF: 29KB]:

economiesinindisciplining

regionallyintegrated(partiallyself-serving)

http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~cces/international_semina
r_on_public_economics_program.pdf

governments.
Some of these papers are available for download aspart of the CCES Discussion Paper Series of theCenter for Research on Contemporary Economic

Love Affairs with Chinese and Japanese Numbers
Harry Wu
Regional Studies/Market Analysis Group
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi

On 24 April 2010, the economics profession lost one
oftheworld’s

mostgiftedscholarsevertoquantitatively document economic performance over a
very long period of time and across major countries inevery continent of the world. Professor Angus
Maddison died fromcomplications arising fromleukemia at the American Hospital in Paris. He wasburied in the church graveyard in Chevincourt, avillage near Compiègne where he had lived with wife
Penny for the latter part of his life. He is also survived

memories about Angus Maddison’s research activities

by his two sons, George and Charles, his daughteron quantifying Chinese and Japanese economic

Lizzy, and five grandchildren.

performance in the long run as well as his contacts

Much has been written about Angus Maddison’s life

with Chinese and Japanese scholars, a topic that I

and work, which were devoted to the understanding

immediately felt to be very appropriate when I was

and interpretation of the dynamics and sources ofasked to write a memorial piece for the Newsletter ofgrowth and development in human history, including a

Hitotsubashi University’s Global COE Program, evenrecent article by Derek Blades, Bart van Ark andthough it is difficult to do it justice in a short article.

1

Angus’s passion for Japan and China was nomyself. Here, I would like to refresh some of ouraccident. It was aroused by his interest in the role of1

The article will be published in The Review of Income and
Wealth in September, 2010. Some of its contents are usedin the present paper without specifying the source.

5

institutions in the economic development of the two

he then realized that it was hard to find any trace of its

Asian giants. During the first half of his time inpast prosperity. He remarked that wrong policies or

Groningen (from 1978 to the late 1980s), Angus

mistakes by the ruling elite could easily wipe out acontinued his broadly-based research on growth andcountry’s accumulated wealth for centuries – a big

development. Following several earlier books he hadquestion hanging there that had motivated his long

written on this topic, he published two major

pursuit for the underlying explanations of economic

monographs in 1982 and 1991 and a seminal article

growth.

on growth accounting in 1987 in the Journal of

Maddison also returned to the topic of measuring

Economic Literature. These writings explained his

economic performance beyond the Western world, but

understanding of the dynamics and sources of growthbegan to place it more strongly in an internationaland development. His characterization of development

comparative perspective. In the early 1980s hein terms of secular phases rather than the Kondratieff

criticized Paul Bairoch’s view that the industrialization

notion of long waves led to a more gradualistof the Western European countries took place at aninterpretation of the diffusion of technology andaverage standard of living below that of contemporary

innovation, and a greater emphasis on “systemless developed countries, which was very different

shocks.” These shocks were in part historicalfrom the conjectures by David Landes and Simon

accidents, but their impact was reinforced by changes

Kuznets who believed that by that time Westernin expectations, and fashions in economic policy.

Europe was already much richer than the rest of the

These views, based on strong quantitative support,

world. To Angus Maddison these remarkably different

challenged scholars who had advanced the notion of aquantitative conclusions had very important analyticalmore abrupt “industrial revolution” in the late 18th

implications: “If Bairoch is right, then much of the

century, or traditional development economists who

backwardness of the third world presumably has to besupported the Rostovian view of the need for an

explained by colonial exploitation, and much less of

economic “take-off” to generate growth. Angus was

Europe’s advantage can be due to scientific precocity,also an early advocate of the need to take economic

centuries of slow accumulation, and organizational

institutions much more seriously by developing aand financial prosperity" (Maddison, 1983). Althoughmodel that distinguished between proximate sources

he used the existing evidence at the time to show thatof growth (directly measurable economic inputs, such

Bairoch and his epigoni probably overstated theas labour, physical and human capital and land) andcontemporary income gap and understated per capita

ultimate sources (institutional, political, social andincome growth in the developing world, it motivatedcultural). He believed that the complex interaction of

him to pursue the topic of international comparisonsthese proximate and ultimate sources allowed amore intensively. Following his later work on China

multipolar development in Europe in the Middle Ages.

(see below), he returned to the topic of comparative

I remember his last trip to China to celebrate theperformance between East and West at the time of

publication in Chinese of The World Economy: A

the industrial revolution, when other scholars, notably

Millennial Perspective. He was accompanied by me to

Kenneth Pomeranz, argued that China stayed at avisit Hangzhou, the capital of China’s Southern Songmuch higher level of development until the end of the(1127–1279), then the richest country in the world

18th century than Europe – a viewpoint whichaccording to his estimates. He was warned about the

Maddison strongly criticized on the basis of his

potential danger of the highway drive and that it would

reconstruction of China’s macroeconomic accounts

be a tiring day trip but he was still keen to go. Filledback to the year 960.

with excitement at stepping on the land of Hangzhou,

From the early 1960s to the early 1970s, he worked

6mainly on problems of economic development at theallOECD Development Centre and as an economic(Maddison, 1994).

theoperatives

had

high

schooleducation"

advisor for the Twentieth Century Fund and theAngus’s contacts with a later generation of scholars

Harvard Advisory Service. The major aim of his workat the IER began in the late 1980s when he wasin this field was to understand why the rest of theoffered a visiting scholarship by the Japan Society forworld is much poorer than Western countries and to

the Promotion of Science in 1989 and was hosted by

distinguish different types of non-Western experience.

Konosuke Odaka and Osamu Saito. As recalled by

HeofOdaka, Angus, from his first impression, was very

development in the non-Western countries are verymuch like Ohkawa in that he was very enthusiastic

wide and there is great heterogeneity in theirabout any topic related to economic development andinstitutional heritage.” In interpreting the reasons for

economic history, and could be easily engaged in an“backwardness,” he began to explore the role ofinteresting and seemingly never-ending discussion.

colonialism, indigenous social forces, institutions,

During his stay at the IER (about six weeks), Angus

property rights, religion, and ideology by studying inspent most of his time reading almost everything

depth some major country cases. Japan as the first ofavailable

the seven such countries of “the third world” enteredeconomic history as well as talking to the people at

his research agenda. Although China was the lastthecase of his series of country studies and his work on

Maddison paid another major visit to the IER in 1998

China was published almost thirty years later (1998)

during the IER’s first COE program on Asian Historicalthan his work on Japan (1969), it had since neverStatistics under the leadership of Odaka. During his

been out of the focus of his research life. To Angus, astay, he engaged Saito in some intensive discussions

comparison between post-Meiji Restoration Japan’sonpositive response to and quick catch-up with the Westdemographic history, which apparently benefited his

and China’s catastrophic experience during the same

research on Japan’s development as part of his thenperiod was a good example for understanding the role

newof institutions and government policy in economic

Perspective, published in 2001.

realizedthat“differences

in

the

level

development.

in

IER,

westernincludingJapanesebook,languages
young

economic

The

World

on

Japanese

researchers.

history

andEconomy:A

Angus

especially

Millennial

Angus Maddison also paid other short visits, during

Angus made his first trip to Japan in 1961 when hewhich he gave seminars, acted as an evaluator of themet Kazushi Ohkawa and several other scholars at

IER’s first COE program, and promoted exchanges of

the

young

InstituteofEconomicResearch

(IER)

of

researchers

between

the

IER

and

the

Hitotsubashi University. This was the time when

Groningen Growth and Development Center (GGDC).

Ohkawa was starting to publish 13 volumes on

In fact, it was he who introduced me to Odaka, which

Japanese quantitative economic history. Throughout

began my engagement with the IER. Angus’s last visit

the rest of his life, Angus maintained a very high view

to Japan in September-October 2007 – perhaps hisof the quantitative research under the leadership ofvery last trip to Asia – was to attend an international

Ohkawa and the research environment at the IER.

symposium at the IER and, more importantly, toDuring that trip, Angus was also impressed by what hereceive an honorary doctorate from Hitotsubashi

observed in Japanese society. Later, recounting his

University for his great contributions to scholarshipexperience of his 1965 trip to Japan, he wrote: “I wasand the economics profession.

struck by the strong discipline and an organization that

The debate with Bairoch and his followers points tooperated like clockwork…[and] when I visited thethe importance of quantitative assessment of China’sSony radio factory, I found the foremen had PhDs andlong-run economic performance. This is important not7

only for China but also for positioning other economies

and institutional deficiencies, and how to obtain betterin the world. In fact, in the debate, he comparedestimates for China’s real GDP. Our discussion

Japan’s Tokugawa period with China rather than withdeepened after we first met at an economics

Western Europe as other studies did. While like many

conference held at the University of New England,

researchers he attempted to explain the divergences

Australia, in 1995, possibly arranged by Prasada Rao.

between countries, Angus paid more attention, and

The idea began to emerge that it might be possible todevoted a great deal of effort, to the understanding of

use the physical output of major commodities toimportant convergences in the past, in most of whichbypass the price distortions in the central planning

China served as an important reference, such as

period – a problem that I did not tackle in my 1993

Europe’s rise from its nadir to overtake China, thepaper. In early 1996, I spent a couple of months

Japanese catch-up with China in Tokugawa times, andworking with him on reconstructing China’s industrial

the post-war resurgence of Asia, especially China,GDP, first at his home in Chevincourt and then at the

India, and the so-called tigers which have narrowed

GGDC. He discussed everything with me in detail,their degree of backwardness substantially with thefrom the selection of commodities to benchmark

advanced countries.

problems

andtheweightingandaggregating

Angus’s early work on China relied mainly on

procedures at various levels. For each round of thequantitative research by Dwight Perkins (1975),

estimates, he always checked the results carefully andTa-chung Liu and Kung-chia Yeh (1965), and studies

discussed them with me almost commodity bycommissioned by the U.S. Congress Joint Economic

commodity and industry by industry. My preliminary

Committee (1978), some of which appeared in his

empirical results lent strong support to his hypothesis

discussion of the debate between Bairoch andthat the official industrial statistics exaggerated theLandes-Kuznets. After the debate, perhaps since thegrowth rate, while underestimating the level, of

early

national output. The revisions and updates that

1990s,

hesubstantiallyextendedhis

investigation of Chinese economic history, exploring

followed have repeatedly confirmed these findings.

the literature on quantitative assessments of China.

Meanwhile, Angus also conducted major data work

New research by himself and in collaboration withon China in three areas, namely, the reconstruction ofothers eventually led to his book, Chinese Economic

China’s agricultural output accounts for 1975, 1987

Performance in the Long Run (1998). This was also aand 1994 using output quantities, the estimation of

period in which he began to work and discuss with

China’s agricultural production PPP using the US as

Chinese economists. I may be the only one who had

the benchmark for 1987, and the reconstruction of thesince spent a great deal of time working with him on

output of China’s “non-material” services. Thus,

the reconstruction of China’s national accounts, on thetogether with my results on manufacturing, mining anddevelopment of an alternative industrial output index

utilities, he eventually obtained a new set offor China, and on the Chinese translation of his threesector-level GDP estimates for China. Needless to say,books, including a revised and updated version of histhese efforts provided a consistent quantitative basis

China book in 2007.

for his China book, Chinese Economic Performance inAngus immediately contacted me when my article

the Long Run (1998), the last but most comprehensiveon the estimation of China’s GDP in the central

country case study in his life.

planning period appeared in The Review of Income

After conducting such serious work on China’sand Wealth in 1993. We then started to communicate

economic history, he wrote: “My judgment on thethrough fax on how to understand the problems incontours

China’s official statistics due to both methodologicaldevelopment (i.e. the rise in per capita income in the8andchronologyofdynastic

China’sSung and its stagnation from the fourteenth to the mid

him about his estimates of hours worked in one of his

nineteenth century) is not unlike that of Mark Elvin, R.

early articles published in 1954. But unfortunately he

M. Hartwell, Eric Jones and Justin Lin. However, they

was too weak to continue our discussion or answer

domy questions.

notattempt

macro-quantification,

and

their

qualitative judgment probably implies a bigger leap inAngus was my mentor who played a very important

the Sung than I find. Some of them suggest that Sungrole in my scholarly pursuits. He was also a colleague

China was trembling on the verge of an industrial

and friend, all at the same time. I remember the great

revolution, which seems exaggerated. Some tend to

moments with him at his home with his family inoverstate the degree of stagnation and the decline inFrance, at conferences, or wherever else in the world‘creativity’ from 1300 to 1850. In this period, China

we would meet. Angus was exceptionally gifted inmanaged (with some interruptions) to sustain per

combining work and pleasure in a very natural way.

capita income levels, whilst increasing its population

Angus Maddison will be missed. But his legacy willmore than fourfold (compared with less than threefold

stay, and many will continue the work in his spirit.

in Europe). ‘Extensive’ growth on this scale is not thesame as stagnation.”2

Selected References

Angus’s passion for China continued till the very late

Maddison, Angus (1983), "A Comparison of Levels of

period of his life. He completely revised his China

GDP Per Capita in Developed and Developingbook in 2007 when his health was already beginning

Countries 1700-1980", Journal of Economic History,

to decline. In fact, after his China book was publishedVol. 41, No. 1, March, pp. 27-41.

in 1998, he continued working with me on at least
three major revisions of my industrial index andMaddison, Angus (1987), “Growth and Slowdown in

discussing data issues for updating his estimates ofAdvanced

the performance of other sectors. He maintained a

Quantitative

good friendship with several Chinese scholars,

Literature, Vol. XXV, June, pp. 649-698.

including Angang Hu, Bozhong Li, Justin Lin, Debin

Maddison,

Ma, Xin Meng and Xiaolu Wang. At different stages of

Chiffrephile”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly

his research on China he also engaged in extensive

Review, No. 189, June, pp. 123-165 (also available on

discussions with Chinese economists such as Ruoen

his website maintained by the Groningen Growth andRen, Xianchun Xu and Ximing Yue on the problems ofDevelopment Center).

measuring

pricechange,service

outputandMaddison,

employment in China.

Capitalist

Economies:

Assessment”,

Angus

Angus

Techniques

Journal(1994),

of

Economic“Confessions(1998),

ChineseofofaEconomic

Performance in the Long Run, OECD, Paris; an

Just this February, only two months before heelectronic

passed away, we still discussed intensively over theversionisavailable

onlineat:www.ggdc.net/Maddison.

telephone whether a new approach I proposed should
be used to reexamine China’s post-reform growth

Maddison, Angus and Harry X. Wu (2008), “Measuringperformance and compare the results with those

China’s Economic Performance”, World Economics,

based on the old approach adopted in our earlier joint

Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 13-44.

work (Maddison and Wu, 2008). In March, I sent him
the comparison via email and at the same time asked
2

Angus Maddison, “Research Objectives and Results,
1952-2002,” available on his website maintained by theGroningen Growth and Development Center.

9

Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Papers (March 2010－June 2010)
No. 118 (March 2010) Masayoshi Hayashi and Yohei

International Business Cycles: Effects of the US

Kobayashi, “The Effects of Central Grants on

News Shock on the Canadian Economy.”

Decentralized Social Programs: Post-2005 School

No. 130 (March 2010) Zhao Chen, Ming Lu, andExpense Assistance in Japan.”

Guanghua Wan, “Inter-Industry Wage Differentials:

No. 119 (March 2010) Ryo Kambayashi, “Dismissal

An Increasingly Important Contributor to Urban

Regulation in Japan.”

China Income Inequality.”

No. 120 (March 2010) Ryo Kambayashi, “Several

No. 131 (March 2010) Shiqing Jiang, Ming Lu, andAspects on Non-regular Employees in Recent

Hiroshi Sato, “Identity, Inequality, and Happiness:

Japan” (in Japanese).

Evidence from Urban China.”

No. 121 (March 2010) Sonku Kim, Inkwon Lee,No. 132 (March 2010) Judith K. Hellerstein, Melissa

Keunkwan Ryu, and Sang-Seung Yi, “Econometric

McInerney, and David Neumark, “Neighbors andDamage Estimation from the Bid Rigging in the

Co-Workers: The Importance of Residential Labor

Korean Military Oil Procurement Auctions during

Market Networks.”

1998-2000” (in Japanese).

No. 133 (March 2010) Paul Sharp, Holger Strulik, andNo. 122 (March 2010) Hideaki Sakawa and Masato

Jacob Weisdorf, “The Determinants of Subsistence

Ubukata, “The Reform of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Income in a Malthusian World.”

and Transparency” (in Japanese).

No.

No. 123 (March 2010) Koji Miyawaki, Yasuhiro Omori,
Water

DemandUsing

aNotes on Estimating the Historical GDP of thePrimary Industry (2)” (in Japanese).

and Asymmetrically Heavy-tailed Error Using GH

No. 136 (April 2010) Jota Ishikawa, Hodaka Morita,

Skew Student's t-distribution.”and Hiroshi Mukunoki, “FDI in Post-Production

No. 125 (March 2010) Takashi Kurosaki, “Long-term
India,

Pakistan,

Services and Product Market Competition.”

and

No.

Bangladesh” (in Japanese).

2010)

Koichi

Tadenuma,

No. 138 (May 2010) Jean-Pascal Bassino, Kyoji

Empirical Analysis.”(March(May

Problems.”

Business Set-asides in Procurement Auctions: An
127

137

“Partnership-Enhancement and Stability in MatchingNo. 126 (March 2010) Jun Nakabayashi, “Small

No.

Nopprach,the Statistical Data Sources of the Philippines:

Omori, “Stochastic Volatility Model with LeverageinSomsupa

No. 135 (April 2010) Keiya Eto, “An Examination of

No. 124 (March 2010) Jouchi Nakajima and Yasuhiro

Growth2010)

Industry.”

Discrete/Continuous Choice Approach.”

Agricultural(March“Comparative Advantage in the Asian Automotive

and Akira Hibiki, “Panel Data Analysis of Japanese
Residential

134

Fukao, Ralph Paprzycki, Tokihiko Settsu, and2010)

Donatella

Gatti,

Ryo

Tangjun Yuan, “Regional Inequality and Industrial

Kambayashi, and Sébastien Lechevalier, “Wage

Structures in Pre-War Japan: An Analysis Based on

and Productivity Differentials in Japan: The Role of

New Prefectural GDP Estimates.”
No. 139 (May 2010) Maki Michinaka and Takahiro Ito,

Labor Market Mechanisms.”“Multidimensional Poverty Rankings based on theNo. 128 (March 2010) Taiji Furusawa and Hideo

Pareto Principle: A Practical Extension.”

Konishi, “Contributing or Free-Riding? Voluntary

No. 140 (June 2010) Susumu Imai, Hajime Katayama,

Participation in a Public Good Economy.”

and Kala Krishna, “A Quantile-based Test of

No. 129 (March 2010) Michiru Sakane, “News-Driven

10

Protection for Sale Model.”Tuvaandorj, “Model Selection Criteria in Multivariate

No. 141 (June 2010) Jota Ishikawa and Toshihiro
Okubo,“Environmental

Standards

Models with Multiple Structural Changes.”

under

No. 145 (June 2010) Eiji Ogawa, “Regional Monetary

International Oligopoly.”

Coordination in Asia after the Global Financial

No. 142 (June 2010) Larry D. Qiu and Wen Zhou,

Crisis: Comparison in Regional Monetary Stability“Trade, Capital Redistribution and Firm Structure.”

between ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+3+3.”

No. 143 (June 2010) Osamu Saito and Tokihiko Settsu,“Unveiling Historical Occupational Structures and its

Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series

Implications

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/research/discussion/i

for

SectoralLabourProductivity

ndex.html

Analysis in Japan's Economic Growth.”
No. 144 (June 2010) Eiji Kurozumi and Purevdorj

Seminars and Conferences (February 2010－June 2010)th

105 (February 5, 2010)

Tokihiko Settsu (Hitotsubashi University), “Estimates

Seminar for Young Researchersof Prefectural Populations in Modern Japan:

co-organized with the Workshop on Law and

1898-1920” (in Japanese)th

110 (February 20, 2010)

Economics
Yasuhiro Arai (Hitotsubashi University), “Civil andGlobal COE Hi-Stat Workshop on Industrial

Criminal Punishments for Copyright Infringement”

Organization and Competition Policyth

106 (February 5, 2010)

Sang-Seung Yi (Seoul National University), Noriaki

Global COE Lecture

Matsushima

co-organized with the Workshop on Economic

Nakabayashi (University of Tsukuba)(OsakaUniversity),

and

Jun

th

111 (February 23, 2010)

TheoryYossi Spiegel (Tel-Aviv University; CEPR; ZEW)Workshop on International Trade and FDI“Partial Cross Ownership and Tacit Collusion underco-organized with the Center for Research on

Cost Asymmetries”

Contemporary Economic Systemsth107 (February 8, 2010)

Chia-Hui Lu (City University of Hong Kong), “TheGlobal COE Lecture

Organization of Production and Trade”th112 (February 23, 2010)

Yossi Spiegel (Tel-Aviv University; CEPR; ZEW),

Lecture organized by the Global COE Hi-Stat“Licensing of Intermediate Technologies”
th

108 (February 8, 2010)

program and the Center for Research on

Seminar for Young Researchers

Contemporary Economic Systems

co-organized with the Workshop on Law andMenahem E. Yaari (The Hebrew University of

Economics

Jerusalem), “Correlation and Cooperation”th

113 (February 24, 2010)

Tsuchihashi Toshihiro (Hitotsubashind

University), ”Sequential Auctions with Different

2 General Meeting of the Global COE Hi-StatEnding Rules”

Programthth

109 (February 18, 2010)

114 (February 27-28, 2010)thnd

8 Global COE Research Workshop

2 Winter Institute of Macroeconomics

11organized by Shin-ichi Fukuda (University of Tokyo),co-organized with the Center for Intergenerational

Koichi Futagami (Osaka University), Akihisa Shibata

Studies and the Egusa Foundation(Kyoto University), Etsuro Shioji (Hitotsubashi

Jennifer

University), and Makoto Saito (Hitotsubashi“Settlement Bargaining”

University)

Andrew Daughety (Vanderbilt University), “Productth

115 (March 4, 2010)

Reinganum(Vanderbilt

University),

Quality and Imperfect Competition”

CEI Workshop on Governance, Institutions, andMichael Riordan (Columbia University), “Abuse of

Performance

Dominant Power”th

120 (March 27, 2010)

Pramuan Bunkanwanicha (ESCP Europe), Joseph
Fan (Chinese University of Hong Kong), Vikas“Construction of Longitudinal Networks with Middle

Mehrotra (University of Alberta), Iftekhar Hasan

Eastern Countries”(Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute), and Kasperco-organized with the Ministry of Education, Culture,

Nielsen (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Sports, Science and Technology’s “Need-Basedth116 (March 8, 2010)

Program for Area Studies: Middle East within Asia”

Public Economics Seminar for Young Researchers

Haidar Fraihat (National Information Technology

Jean-François (Tremblay University of Ottawa),

Center, Jordan) and Ikhlas Arank (National

Marie-Laure Breuillé (INRA), Emmanuelle

Information Technology Center, Jordan)st

121 (April 13, 2010)

Taugourdeau (ENS Cachan), Thomas Lange(University of Konstanz), Junichiro Takahata

Industrial Organization and Labor Economics(Hitotsubashi University), and Günther König

Workshop(Johannes-Gutenberg Universität Mainz)

Yukako Ono (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago),th117 (March 14-15, 2010)“Incomplete Information and the Timing to Adjust

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)

Labor: Evidence from the Lead-Lag Relationship

Invitational Training Program for Advanced

between Temporary Help Employment”nd

122 (April 19, 2010)

Japanese Research Institutes, Workshop on “Lawand Economics of Markets”

Global COE Special Seminarco-organized with the Center for Intergenerational

Augusto Ruperez Micola (Universitat Pompeu Fabra,Studies and the Egusa Foundation

Barcelona), “The Emergence of Biofuels and theAndrew Daughety (Vanderbilt University), Koichi

Co-Movement between Crude Oil and Agricultural

HamadaPrices”(Yale(Hitotsubashi(Vanderbilt

University),

University),
University),

HideshiJennifer
and

Itoh

rd

123 (April 27, 2010)

Reinganum

MichaelIndustrial Organization and Labor Economics

RiordanWorkshop(Columbia University)th118 (March 16, 2010)

co-organized with the Tokyo Center for Economic

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

Research (TCER) Seminarco-organized with the Center for Research on

Youngkwan Kwon (University of Science andContemporary Economic Systems

Technology), “Open Innovation - New Empirical

Yoichi Sugita (Columbia University), “Matching,

Evidence of its Impacts on Innovation Performance

Quality, and Comparative Advantage: A Unifiedof SMEs from Korea”th

124 (May 11, 2010)

Theory of Heterogeneous Firm Trade”th

119 (March 8, 9, and 16, 2010)

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

Law and Economics Group Lecturesco-organized with the Japan Society for the

12

th

Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Training

9 Global COE Research Workshop

Program for Advanced Japanese ResearchTakeshi

Institutes, the Industrial Organization and Labor“Incomplete

Economics Workshop, and the Center for Research

Risk-Averse Agent”

Nishimura(Hitotsubashi

Procurement

University),

Contracting

with

th

130 (June 15, 2010)

on Contemporary Economic Systems
Olena Ivus (University of Prince Edward Island),Industrial Organization and Labor Economics“Stronger Patent Protection: Quantity, Price, andWorkshop

Variety Response of Exports”

co-organized with the TCER Seminarth

125 (May 17, 2010)

Ken Yamada (Singapore Management University),

Special Lecture at Hitotsubashi University“Intertemporal Substitution in Time Allocation ofŞevket Pamuk (Ataturk Institute for Modern Turkish

Married Women”

History/European

Institute,LondonEconomics

Political

Science),andSchoolst131 (June 18, 2010)of

Economic Statistics Workshop“OttomanHistorical Statistics and the Estimation of Per Capita

Kazuhiko

GDP for the Ottoman Empire and Turkey from 1820

“Asymptotic

to 1950”

Asymmetric Power ARCH Models”

thShinki(WayneTheory for

State

University),

Fractionally Integratednd

126 (May 19-21, 2010)

132 (June 22, 2010)

Asian Historical Economics Conference

Workshop on International Trade and FDI

co-organized with Asian Historical Economics

co-organized with the Center for Research on

Conference (AHEC) and the Centre for China in theContemporary

World Economy (CCWE), Tsinghua University

International Exchange Seminarth

127 (May 25, 2010)

Economic

Systemsandthe

Ian Wooton (University of Strathclyde), “The Gains

Economic Development Workshop

from Preferential Tax Regimes Reconsidered”rd

133 (June 26-27, 2010)

co-organized with the Industrial Organization andth

Annual Meeting of the Asia Pacific Trade

Labor Economics Workshop, the Workshop on

6

International Trade and FDI, the Center for

Seminars (APTS)

Research on Contemporary Economic Systems,

held at Osaka Universityth

134 (June 29, 2010)

and the TCER Seminar
Daniel Bernhofen (University of Nottingham) andIndustrial Organization and Labor Economics

John Brown (Clark University), “A Ricardian Factor

WorkshopContent Characterization of the Gains from Trade:co-organized with the TCER Seminar

Evidence from Japan's Opening Up”

Shinyath

128 (June 1, 2010)

Kinukawa(Komazawa

University),“Bargaining in Technology Markets: An EmpiricalIndustrial Organization and Labor Economics

Study of Biotechnology Alliances”

Workshopco-organized with the TCER Seminar

Past Seminars

Tina Kao (Australian National University) and John

http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/events/past_seminars/index.html

Brown (Clark University), “Optimality of Non-fault
Medical Liability Systems”th

129 (June 6, 2010)13

Awards
comparative perspective.

2010 Japan Academy Prize and Spring 2010 Medalwith Purple Ribbon

thProfessor Emeritus Osamu Saito of Hitotsubashi

34

University, Visiting Fellow of the Global COE Hi-Stat

Research Awards

Program (G-COE Hi-Stat) and the leader of its

Professor Hiroyuki Okamuro, G-COE Hi-Stat Program

predecessor,

Member, won the 34

the

21st

Century

COE

program

Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME)thSmall and Medium-Sized“Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in the Social

Enterprise (SME) Research Award for his book,

Sciences,” received the 2010 Japan Academy Prize.

Economic Analysis of Technological Collaboration (inThe award-winning study was published in his book,

Japanese,

Economic Development in Comparative and Historical

Watanabe, G-COE Hi-Stat Program Member, also

Perspectives (in Japanese; Iwanami Shoten, 2008).

received the 34 SME Research Award for his book,He was also awarded the Spring 2010 Medal with

Corporate Finance for Small and Medium-Sized

Purple Ribbon from the Cabinet Office of theEnterprises

Japanese Government for his outstanding work on the

Uesugi; Nikkei Publishing, 2008).

economic

andpopulation

historyofJapan

Doyukan,2009).

Professor

Tsutomuth(inJapanese, authoredwithIichiroin

Ph.D. Conferments (Economics, Hitotsubashi University)
Underlined Chief Supervisors are G-COE Hi-Stat Program Members.

The original title of dissertations in Japanese is given italics.
Titles in square brackets are provisional translations by the

Kohei Aono

editorial team of the Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter.

Dissertation Title: “Kabushiki-shuekiritsu ni kansuru
makuro fainansu bunseki” [A macroeconomic and

FY2008financial analysis of stock profitability]

Michiru Sawada

Date of Award: October 2008

Dissertation Title: “Kinyu-kiki no jissho-bunseki” [TheChief Supervisor: Tokuo Iwaisako

empirical analysis of financial crises]
Date of Award: June 2008

Koji Sakai

Chief Supervisor: Tsutomu Watanabe

Dissertation Title: “Kinyu-shisutemu to ginko-kodo ni
kansuru jissho-bunseki” [Empirical analyses of the

Ho Il Moon (FY2008-2009 COE Researcher)financial system and bank behavior]*

Dissertation Title: “Chosen-minshushugi-jinmin-kyowa

Date of Award: January 2009

-koku no jinko-hendo-bunseki: jinko-kodo-henyo no

Chief Supervisor: Tsutomu Watanabe

jittai to sono yoin” [An analysis of population changes
in North Korea: Changes population developments

Yasuhiro Arai (FY2009 COE Researcher)and their causes]

Dissertation Title: “Economic Analysis of Copyright

Date of Award: October 2008

Protection”

Chief Supervisor: Osamu Saito

Date of Award: March 200914

Chief Supervisor：Akira Okada

perspective: An approach based on historical records
using the survey on the current status and future

Frisca Parulian

perspectives of villages for the 1890s-1910s and farm

Dissertation Title: “The Estimation and Issues ofhousehold survey micro-data for the 1930s]

Indonesia Personal Income Tax Compliance and Tax

Date of Award: June 2009

Office Efficiency”

Chief Supervisor: Osamu Saito

Date of Award: March 2009
Chief Supervisor: Motohiro Sato

Tokihiko Settsu (FY2008-2009 COE Researcher)
Dissertation Title: “Kindai-nihon no keizai-hatten to

Yessica C. Y. Chungshogyo sabisugyo” [Commerce services and theDissertation Title: “The Role of Board of Directors ineconomic development of modern Japan]

Japan: The Empirical Investigations of Competition

Date of Award: June 2009

and Governance”

Chief Supervisor: Osamu Saito

Date of Award: March 2009
Chief Supervisor: Yukinobu Kitamura

Seiichi Eguchi
Dissertation Title: “Nihon senkanki ni okeru

Ryuichiro Tsuchiya (FY2008 COE Young

shokuryo-hi shishutu－juyo-gawa to ryutsu-gawa kara”

Researcher)[Food consumption expenditure in Japan during theDissertation Title: “On the Social and Human Capitalinter-war period: Analysis from the demand-side andof Entrepreneurs in Taiwan”

the distribution-side]

Date of Award: March 2009

Date of Award: September 2009

Chief Supervisor: Shinkichi Taniguchi

Chief Supervisor: Masahiro Sato

FY2009Shiba Suzuki (FY2008-2009 COE Young

Kazuyasu Sakamoto

Researcher)

Dissertation Title: “Oyako-kankei no keiryo-keizai-

Dissertation Title: “Essays on Asset Prices andbunseki－1990-2000 nendai no chuki oyako-kankei ni

Economic Welfare in Endogenous Incomplete Market

tsuite” [An econometric analysis of parent-child

Models”

relationships: Medium-term parent-child relationships

Date of Award: September 2009

in the 1990s and 2000s]

Chief Supervisor: Makoto Saito

Date of Award: May 2009
Chief Supervisor: Yukinobu Kitamura

Kazuya Wada (FY2008-2009 COE Young
Researcher)

Manabu Ozeki (FY2008-July 2009 COE Researcher;

Dissertation Title: “Tojokoku-kaihatsu ni okeru jiyu no

August 2009-March 2010 Assistant Professor,

yakuwari” [The role of freedom in development in

Institute of Economic Research)developing countries]

Dissertation Title: “Senzen-nihon no noson noka no

Date of Award: September 2009

kanjo-taikei kara mita shohi no jittai－1890-1910

Chief Supervisor: Takashi Kurosaki

nendai no chosonze to 1930 nendai nonoka-keizai-chosa ni yoru shiryoronteki apurochi”

Fabien Durringer (FY2008 COE Young Researcher)[Consumption behavior of Japanese farm households

Dissertation Title: “An Analysis of the Trilemma sinceduring the pre-war period from an accounting

the 1970s: Existence, Performance and Choice”

15

Date of Award: November 2009
Chief Supervisor: Kyoji Fukao

Kaname Miyagishima (FY2008-2009 COE Young
Researcher)Akiyuki Tonogi

Dissertation Title: “Kikai no hyoka to bunpai” [TheDissertation Title: “Daikibo POS deta wo mochiita

evaluation and distribution of opportunities]*

kakaku-hendo no jissho-bunseki” [Empirical analysis

Date of Award: March 2010of price changes using large-scale POS data]

Chief Supervisor: Naoki Yoshihara

Date of Award: November 2009
Chief Supervisor: Naohito Abe

Toshihiro Tsuchihashi (FY2008-2009 COE Young
Researcher)

Yoshimasa Komoriya (FY2008 COE Young

Dissertation Title: “Pricing under AsymmetricResearcher)

Information: Advertisements and Internet Auctions”

Dissertation Title: “Essays on Multinational Enterprises

Date of Award: March 2010

and Firm Heterogeneity”

Chief Supervisor: Akira Okada

Date of Award: December 2009
Chief Supervisor: Jota Ishikawa

Takahiro Ito (FY2008 COE Young Researcher)
Dissertation Title: “Development, Labor Markets, andShoko Nakano

Household Behavior in Rural India”

Dissertation Title: “Commodity derivatives ni okeru

Date of Award: March 2010

forward discount bias: goriteki-kitai-heikin risk

Chief Supervisor: Takashi Kurosaki

premium ni okeru kozo-henka” [Forward discount bias
in commodity derivatives: Structural changes in the

FY2010average risk premium with rational expectations]

Shim Jungwook (FY2009-2010 COE Researcher)

Date of Award: December 2009

Dissertation Title: “Nihon no dozoku-kigyo: choki data

Chief Supervisor: Tokuo Iwaisako

set (1955-2000) wo mochiita jissho-bunseki” [Family
firms in Japan: Empirical analysis using a Japanese

Nopprach Somsupa (FY2009 COE Younglong panel data set (1955-2000)]

Researcher)

Date of Award: June 2010

Dissertation Title: “Empirical Studies on the Asian

Chief Supervisor：Hiroyuki Okamuro

Automotive Industry: Location Choice, Supplier
Selection, and Comparative Advantage”

Masato Nishiwaki (FY2008-June 2010 Research

Date of Award: February 2010

Assistant; June 2010-present COE Visiting Young

Chief Supervisor: Kyoji Fukao

Scholar)
Dissertation Title: “Essays on Empirical Models ofNozomu Muto

Strategic Interactions in Industrial Organization”

Dissertation Title: “Strategic Complexity and Efficiency

Date of Award: June 2010

in Games with Sequential Interactions”

Chief Supervisor: Hiroyuki Odagiri

Date of Award: March 2010
Chief Supervisor: Akira Okada

16

Global COE Hi-Stat Newsletter No. 4 (July 2010)
Issued by Hitotsubashi University Global COE Program
Research Unit for Statistical and Empirical Analysis in Social Sciences
c/o Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603 Japan
Tel: +81-42-580-8386
Fax: +81-42-580-8333
E-mail: GCOE-info@ier.hit-u.ac.jp
URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/english/

17