Ageing, Later Life andSocial Change in Germany
Andreas Motel-Klingebiel
Linköping University (LiU)
National Institute for the Study of Ageing and Later Life (NISAL)
German Centre of Gerontology (DZA), Berlin

Outline• Grand challenges to European societies• Demographic change• Social change• Changing life-courses• Changing later life
• Threats to quality of life and well-being• Conclusions

2Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of lifeand well-being•

Conclusions• The European Union defines several grandchallenges• Grand challenges•

involve a combination of major public andprivate interests•

are seen as key for realising future economicgrowth•

are concerned with important social and/orenvironmental problems• Overall strategy: Investing in research andinnovation to meet the grand challenges

3Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions• Grand challenges to the European societies
according to the European Commission••••••

Health, demographic change and well-being
Food security, sustainable agriculture, marineand maritime research, and the bio-economy
Secure, clean and efficient energy
Smart, green and integrated transport
Inclusive, innovative and secure societies
Climate action, resource efficiency and rawmaterials• Demographic change and well-being arein an exposed position4

Demographic change•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of lifeand well-being•

Conclusions5• Demographic change in Europe••

Overall trend: shrinking fertility, expanding
longevity, increasing migration
But heterogeneous developments in EUsocieties in all three facets• The European JPI MYBL defines four major
areas of concern where research is needed••••

Quality of life, health and welfare
Economic and social production
Sustainable welfare
Governance and institutions

Demographic change•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of lifeand well-being•

Conclusions

6• The development in Germany•••

Shrinking population: declines in population
size by about 20% by 2060
Ageing population: increases in number andshare of (very) old people
Increasing heterogeneity: growing cultural andethnic diversity as well as social inequality• Birth rates and the German baby boom

Social change
Grand challenges toEuropean societies••

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions

7

Ageing societyand productivity
in lifeglobalcompetition• Ageingand laterin theircontemporary

meaning are products of the ‘short 20th century’
Distributions and social structure
New individual/collective risks and their consequences

Changing life-courses•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being
Conclusions•• Working life•
•
•
•
•
•

Expansion of education
Increasingly difficult entries into paid labour
Increasing risks of unemployment
Changes in female employment
Increase of fixed-term- and self-employment
Changing pathways into retirement• Family life•••••Postponement of first birth
Declines in number of children
Increases in childlessness
Increasing instability of partnerships
Loss of importance of life-long marriage• Plurality and instability
8Changing later life?
•Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions

9• Cohort change caused by long-term changes
in living conditions in a historical perspective•••

Historical settings from the late German Empire
to the unified Federal Republic
Development of social security systems
Changing cultural and normative settings• Change due to short-term effects as a resultof institutional development and periodeffects•••

Financial crises
German unification
Cutbacks of social security

Threats to quality of life andwell-being•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions

10• How can modern societies sustain individual
and social welfare in the context of current
and enduring changes?
• Many of the issues that need to be discussed
cumulate in the analysis of life-courses andtheir outcomes• Are changes threatening quality of life andwell-being in later life?

Threats to quality of life andwell-being•

Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions

11

Insecurity and declines in future
prospects in standard of living

Source: DEAS 2002-08.

Threats to quality of life andwell-being

Social change•

Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions.05•

Declines in pension rights at age 67 (est.)
Men/West.04

Demographic change

Density.02.03•.01

Grand challenges toEuropean societies

0•

02060
40
Entgeltpunkte

80

100

Personal earning points.05

Kriegs-Kohorte
Cohort 1936-45
Cohort 1946-55
Nachkriegs-Kohorte
Cohort 1956-65
Babyboomer-Kohorte

0.01

Density.02
.03

.04

Men/East

02060
40
Entgeltpunkte

Personal earning points
12Source: LAW 2012.

80100

Conclusions•Grand challenges toEuropean societies•

Demographic change•

Social change•Changing life-courses•

Changing later life•

Threats to quality of life
and well-being•

Conclusions• Demographic change in Germany as well as
in Europe is a grand challenge• It is intertwined with general social change
and appears jointly with other challenges• Individuals face increasing risks over the life
course• Material resources for well-being in later life
are shrinking due to reforms in social security
systems while others (health, social networks,education) seem to remain stable• Increasing risks reflect on future prospects
and will most likely affect behaviour and wellbeing in later life13

andreas.motel-klingebiel@liu.se
www.liu.se