NATURE-BASED
TRANSFORMATIVE ADAPTATIONa practical handbook

1Cover page:

How can we be better prepared to respond to major shifts driven by climatechange, such as massive coral reef bleaching?

Cover photo:

Sunset in the Bird's Head Peninsula in Raja Ampat, Indonesia© Conservation International/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn

Design:Giacomo Fedele

Lead Author:

Giacomo Fedele (PhD), Climate Change Adaptation Fellow(gfedele@conservation.org)

How to cite:

Fedele G., Donatti C.I., Corwin E., Pangilinan M.J., Roberts K., Lewins M., Andrade
A., Olvera D., Frazee S., Grover M., Lalaina Rakotobe Z., Rambeloson A. (2019),
Nature-based Transformative Adaptation: a practical handbook, Conservation
International, Arlington, VA, USA. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3386441

2© Giacomo Fedele/Conservation International

Contents
1 Thinking about Transformative Adaptation

5

2 Identifying Transformative Adaptation

8

3 Using Nature for Transformative Adaptation

11

4 Implementing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation

14

5 Financing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation

45

6 Designing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation47

7 Learning about Nature-based Transformative Adaptation

51

3

Foreword
If we don’t stop climate change, little else will matter. Addressing the root causesof climate change (mitigation) and assisting vulnerable populations to build resilience to
its impacts (adaptation) are essential to CI’s mission of safeguarding nature for humanwell-being. Current greenhouse gas emission trends put the world on course for a 3.74.8°C temperature increase by 2100, which would result in catastrophic impacts. Even
with the commitments made under the Paris Agreement, mitigation efforts fall short ofthe cuts required to limit warming to a relatively safe 2°C or 1.5°C. Further, even if allemissions are stopped immediately, impacts will continue for many centuries due tocumulative historic emissions.
Both mitigation and adaptation will require changes across all sectors of oureconomy and society. Nature is an often-overlooked, irreplaceable asset in combatingclimate change. The science is clear on the mitigation potential of natural ecosystems:
protecting and restoring tropical forests and mangroves could account for at least 30
percent of global action needed to avoid the worst climate scenarios. Natural
ecosystems also provide an invaluable service to help communities adapt to the effects
of climate change that are already happening. For example, natural ecosystems provide
buffers from storms and secure freshwater sources. Therefore, we know that we will
not be able to confront the climate change challenge without nature. Reducing theadverse impacts of a changing climate, securing ecological vitality, and supporting
human well-being will require that nature-based solutions are implemented to theirfullest potential.
Transformative adaptation is a particularly critical strategy to consider as theimpacts of climate change become ever more severe. This approach provides
solutions that are commensurate to the challenge: by promoting deep, systemic, andsustainable change with large-scale impact. Some sectors have more advanced
experience with climate-related transformative change, such as the precipitous
advances in renewable energy. In the context of nature, however, the global community
requires more understanding of the concept and methodologies, as well as
implementation examples, in order to advance uptake of this critical strategy foradaptation.
This booklet aims to improve understanding of what transformative adaptationis, and how to identify, design, and implement initiatives that support transformative
adaptation to climate change based on nature. With an improved understanding oftransformative adaptation, project managers and policymakers can be better positioned
to incorporate this type of adaptation when designing adaptation programs, plans, andinitiatives. The booklet also provides examples of transformative approaches based onnature that can support climate resilient development pathways on the ground.
We hope that this foundational research can inform policy processes and decisionmaking at all scales, and provide concrete examples of how communities can makestrides towards a new development paradigm and build a more resilient future forhumanity.

Shyla Raghav
Vice President, Climate Change
41 Thinking about Transformative Adaptation
1.1 What is adaptation?
Climate change is increasing temperatures
and altering rainfall patterns in many regions,leading to more frequent and intense
extreme weather events, such as droughts,
floods, and cyclones. These changes have amajor impact on the well-being of people andnature, including decreased agricultural
yields, lack of clean water, damages toinfrastructure, and shifts in species
composition. In many parts of the world, theimpact of climate change has already been
observed. Even if we manage to drasticallyreduce the carbon emissions that cause
climate change today, it will take time for the
climate to stabilize. Therefore, there is a needto find ways to help people and nature toadapt to the changes that are alreadyoccurring and will continue to occur.
Adaptation is an adjustment in social or
ecological structures and processes to
respond to the actual or expected impact ofclimate change. The aim of adaptation is toprevent or reduce the risks that climatechange can cause. For example, coastal
communities can build walls to protect
against sea-level rise, people in cities canincrease green spaces to reduce heatislands, farmers can plant drought resistantcrops, and businesses can subscribe toflood-damages insurance. In addition,
adaptation can take advantage ofopportunities that may arise because ofclimate change. For example, farmers canplant different crops that could not previously
grow in their areas. Adaptation strategies caninvolve both individuals and collective
adjustments in social behaviours, physicalinfrastructure, ecological properties, orgovernance mechanisms.
There are different adaptation options,depending on the sector, region, andcapacity of people to respond to climatechange. Because the impact of climatechange is different across the world,
responses need to be specific to the local
context. Several systems are in transition andneed to adapt due to climate change, suchas the energy, land, urban, and industrial
sectors. Climate scientists, in the latest IPCC
special report (IPCC 2018), raised the urgent
need to adapt in response to an expected 1.5°C increase in temperature above the preindustrial levels. Different types of adaptation
are required. This includes a range ofchanges spanning from sustainable land
management to resilient building codes, fromclimate information services to social
protection policies.

Figure 1. A young boy in Cambodia travels in an improvised boat from one house to another.
©Conservation International/Sitha Som.
5

1.2 How to adapt?

There are several strategies that people
can use to respond to the impacts ofclimate change. People can modify social
behaviours,
physicalinfrastructure,
ecological properties, or governancemechanisms. There is no ‘one-size-fits-allsolution’ because the adaptation options arehighly dependent on the context andcapacities of the system that is affected.
However, climate change responses can beloosely categorized into four major types:

The more transformative the adaptation
strategy, the higher the human inputs andre-organization required. Transformative
adaptation fundamentally changes systems’
properties and functions to address the root
causes of vulnerability. Implementing
transformative
adaptation
requiressignificant investments of time, money, andskills. Therefore, it is harder to implementtransformative adaptation compared toother response strategies (Fig. 2)

Inaction

Incremental adaptation

Lack of strategies to respond to the impact
of climate change, which is disregarded,
and lead to harm or damage to people andnature.

Strategies to accommodate the impact ofclimate change through minor alterations
that build resilience of people and nature.

Coping strategies

Transformative adaptation

Strategies to resist the impact of climatechange and aim to maintain a similar stateor business-as-usual functioning of people
and nature.

Strategies to overcome the impact ofclimate change through fundamental shifts
in states and interactions of people andnature that address the root causes ofvulnerability in the long-term.

Figure 2. Four types of response strategies to the impact of climate change along a gradient of increasing
magnitude of changes. Examples from the agricultural sector in italic (Fedele et al. 2019).
6

1.3 Why transformative adaptation?

Some current climate change responses
need to go beyond business-as-usual tomaintain people’s well-being in the long-term
under the expected impact of climatechange. Coping or incremental adaptation
maybeinsufficient,
fail,
or
be
counterproductive in the face of new climate
conditions. For example, as climate change
increases sea levels and the occurrence of
extreme weather events, the adaptations ofcoastal communities, such as repairingdamaged infrastructure or building higher
seawalls may be compromised. In this case,planning transformative adaptation might bemore appropriate to deal with the expected
future changes in climate. An example oftransformative adaptation for this situation
could be assisting the relocation of people,
converting the use of the coasts to mangrove
and salt tolerant species, or introducing
building codes for flood resistance.

Why consider transformative adaptation?
••••

To address root causes of climate-related vulnerabilities
To plan anticipatory and long-term adaptation
To avoid ineffective adaptation and maladaptation
To implement the only remaining adaptation option

Transformative adaptation might be themost appropriate solution in case of major
shifts in social and ecological conditions
driven by climate change. Transformative
adaptation
can
help
shift
from
accommodating change to deliberately
implementing more sustainable and forwardlooking strategies. This type of adaptation
strengthens the capacity of people andnature to adapt in the long-term andaddresses the root causes of vulnerability.
However, so far, we have rarely consideredtransformative adaptation in plans or
strategies to reduce the impact of climatechange. Part of the reason is due to the highinvestments of money, time, and skills, as wellas the power dynamics that are required tochange from business-as-usual responses. In
addition, there is a lack of information onwhat transformative adaptation entails, whento consider this type of adaptation, and what
it looks like in practice. This hinders the useof transformative adaptation, missing
opportunities to invest in long-term solutions
that effectively reduce climate change risks.
In the following chapters, we present what
transformative adaptation means inpractice based on a review of theoretical andempirical studies. We first introduce a
conceptual understanding to differentiate
transformative adaptation from other types ofadaptation based on a review of scientific
literature (Chapter 2). We then describe an
overall strategy to use nature to adapt toclimate change (Chapter 3). We complement
this theoretical discussion with concrete
examplesbasedonConservation
International’s experience implementing
projects related to the use of nature to help
people adapt to climate change intransformative ways (Chapter 4). In addition,
we present a brief overview on the major
financial initiatives that are supportingtransformative adaptation (Chapter 5). Finally,
we present methods to help design projects
or plans that consider transformative
adaptation (Chapter 6).
With an improved understanding oftransformative adaptation, project managers
and policy makers will be better positioned toconsider this type of adaptation when
designing adaptation programs, plans, andinitiatives so they are adequately addressing
the challenges posted by climate change(e.g. National Adaptation Plans, Nationally
Determined Contribution, and GEF/GCF
Adaptation projects).

7

2 Identifying Transformative Adaptation
2.1 What characterizes transformative adaptation?
The concept of transformative adaptation
has been described in several ways,
depending on the system of interest (e.g. theecological, financial, socio-cultural, orgovernance system). However, there areseveral similarities across systems. A recent
review of 80 scientific papers identified six
recurring characteristics of transformative
adaptation(Fedeleetal.
2019 1).
Transformative adaptation was often
described as being re-structuring, pathshifting, multiscale, systemwide, innovative,

andpersistent.
Eachcharacteristic
represents a specific adjustment in a systemthat is adapting to climate change. When an
adaptation strategy encompasses or has thepotential
toencompassthesesixcharacteristics in a comprehensive way, it ismost likely to result in transformative
adaptation. The six characteristics arepresented in the table below with examples
related to the interactions between people
and nature, i.e. from a social-ecologicalsystems perspective (Table 1).

Table 1. The 6 characteristics of transformative adaptation and examples related to the interactions
between people and nature, i.e. from a social-ecological perspective (based on Fedele et al. 2019).

Re-structuring
altering fundamental features orinteractions in ecosystems and societies

Path-shifting
shifting the current trajectory of a socialecological system towards a different
direction.

Multiscale
spanning multiple spatial, jurisdictional,
sectoral or trophic scales.

Changing croplands withsedentary farmers to communal
grasslands with pastoralists.

Shifting from subsistence tomarket-based livelihoods.

Involving local, regional, national
agencies in forest management.

Systemwide
triggering systemic changes at large
scale.

Covering entire watersheds orlandscapes.

Innovative

Introducing early warning systemfor climate-related hazards inplaces that did not have that
previously.

introducing new functions or states forthat location.

Persistentleading to long-term impacts, even if notnecessarily irreversible.

Institutionalizing land-use
policies or management
committee.

1 Fedele et al. 2019 (Env. Sci. & Pol.) Transformative adaptation toclimate change for sustainable social-ecological systems

82.2 When to consider transformative adaptation?

Transformative adaptation can be the mostappropriate strategy in the context of major
climate change impacts affecting particularly
vulnerable people or assets. In certain
situations, other adaptation strategies thatmaintain the current state might be moresuitable but it is likely that these situations will
become less common with climate change.
As climate change impact increases, coping
strategies or incremental adaption are likely
to be ineffective. Poorly designed adaptation
strategies might fail, causing not only loss ofmoney, but also degradation of nature anddisruption of livelihoods. For example,
building irrigation or dikes to reduce theimpacts of drought can increase greenhousegas emissions and reduce water supply
downstream. Similarly, expanding agriculture
by cutting down forests can help people byproviding emergency if flood damage crops,
but also create erosion in the long-term.
There
are
three scenarios
whentransformative adaptation should beconsidered in adaptation plans or projects.
First, when climate change impacts are
expected to be particularly severe (e.g. inmountains, coral reefs, drylands); second,
when existing adaptation strategies are
already reaching their limits (e.g. in rural
areas, marginal agricultural land); and third,
when losses and damages have alreadyhappened (e.g. in coasts under sea level,
dried out wetlands, unproductive lands).
Under the three scenarios described above,transformative adaptation is better suitedthan other strategies and can be
implemented to address one or more of thefollowing: i) to anticipate radical climatechange impact to reduce future vulnerability,ii) re-direct ongoing climate change impact
and adaptation to effectively reduce current

vulnerability, and iii) recover from radical
climate change impacts to new viable states.

When to consider transformative adaptation?
In places expected to be severely impacted by climate change(e.g. high mountains, coastal zones, coral reefs, dry lands, wetlands)-

High risk of failure of other adaptation strategies

In places reaching adaptation limits(e.g. rural areas, marginal agricultural land, low-lands)-

High risk of maladaptation and further degradation

In places already degraded by climate change(e.g. coasts under sea level, dried out wetlands, degraded lands)-

Only viable adaptation strategy under new conditions

Examples from around the world indicatethat adaptation is an iterative process, andcan occur through bouts of trial and error.
Adaptation pathways describe how people
can continuously take and evaluate
decisions related to adaptation and its
different outcomes (Figure 3). Such pathways
illustrate key decision and intervention points
that influence the transition of a system
toward a desired direction under several
uncertainties. They help underscore
adaptation as a dynamic process that ishappening through time, in which certain
decisions are influenced by previous choices
and circumstances. For example, a fishingcommunity may adapt to increasingly severe
cyclones and associated high water levels
following different pathways, whether
repairing damaged houses, increasing theheight of the poles of stilt houses, orchanging livelihoods that lead to different
outcomes for well-being through time (Fig. 3).

9© Aditya Siva

Figure 3. Three alternative pathways of responses by fishing communities to climate change leading todifferent outcomes.

10

3 Using Nature for Transformative Adaptation
3.1 What is Ecosystem-based Adaptation?
An approach called ecosystem-based
adaptation (EbA) has emerged among
practitioners in the past few years. Thisapproach refers to the “use of biodiversity
and ecosystem services as part of an overall
adaptation strategy to help people adapt tothe adverse effects of climate change” (UNConvention on Biological Diversity 2009).
This approach includes the conservation,
restoration and sustainable management of
ecosystems, ecosystem services andprocesses, as well as maintaining biodiversity
to address climate-related risks (Figure 5).
EbA measures aim to strengthen the deliveryof ecosystem services and processes that
support human well-being in the face ofclimate change. For example, restoring
forests can help people adapt to climatechangebyincreasing
livelihood
diversification and providing alternative
sources of food during extreme weather
events. Reforesting slopes can reduce

CONSERVATIONSUSTAINABLE
MANAGEMENT

erosion and protect water supply in case ofmajor changes in precipitation. Conserving
mangroves can protect coastal settlementsfrom storms and waves.
Ecosystem-based
adaptation
cancomplement or substitute other adaptation
strategies based on hard infrastructure. EbA
and hybrid measures often provide solutions
to multiple climate change-related hazards atlower costs and risks, while providing several
additional
advantages
over
hard
infrastructure. For example, while hard
infrastructure might have more immediate
and visible effects on reducing specificclimate change impacts, it can be expensive
and deliver few or no co-benefits. In contrast,
EbA tends to be more cost-effective, locallyavailable, and generate multiple benefits
simultaneously,suchascarbonsequestration, livelihood diversification, andbiodiversity conservation.

RESTORATIONAGROFORESTRY

Figure 5. Ecosystem-based Adaptation measures include the conservation, sustainable management,
and restoration of nature, such as forests, agroecosystems, grasslands, and wetlands to reduce people’svulnerability to climate change. © Conservation International/Sarah Streyle.
113.2 When is Ecosystem-based Adaptation transformative?

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can betransformative when designed as part of an
integrated approach that fully takes into
consideration best practices and futurechanges. To help people adapt, EbA
strategies require healthy ecosystems andsustainable uses. The principles or bestpractices of EbA can be linked to several
characteristics of Transformative Adaptation(Table 2). EbA measures can include a mix ofinterventions
relatedtoecosystem
management and policies (e.g. protection or
restoration of wetlands), but also socioeconomic interventions (e.g. livelihoods
diversification, payment for ecosystemservices, improved value chains), as well as
technical interventions (e.g. climate-hazards
early warning systems, infrastructure
improvements).

Well-designed EbA projects re-shapeunsustainable interactions between people
and nature, which is a main feature oftransformative adaptation. However, to betransformative, EbA should go beyond
managing ecosystems for immediatematerial benefits or climate-proofing existingdevelopment
tocurrent
conditions.
Depending on the context, examples oftransformative EbA include changing land
uses (e.g. implementing agroforestry,
restoring wetlands), establishing social
institutions for natural resources (e.g. multistakeholder water management committees),
revitalisingecologicalvalues(e.g.
reconsidering farmers’ traditional practices)or altering social behaviours (e.g. driving
consumers’ choices towards sustainableagricultural products).

Table 2. The principles or best-practices of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (IIED 2018, FEBA 2017,
Andrade et al. 2012) can support the characteristics of Transformative Adaptation (Fedele et al. 2019).

Ecosystem-based Adaptation
principles or best-practices

Transformative
Adaptation characteristics

Human-centric based on the use of nature

Re-structuring

Sustainable social-ecological systems
Avoid maladaptation and trade-offs

Path-shifting

Community-based and human rights-based
Cross-sectoral and collaborative

MultiscaleMultiple & appropriate geographical scales
Inclusive with multiple beneficiaries

Systemwide

Based on traditional knowledge and science

Innovative

Mainstreamed and integrated in policies
Long-term capacities and benefits

Persistent12

3.3 What are other transformative adaptations not based on
ecosystems?

Transformative adaptation can also bebased on social or technical measures, inaddition to nature. These measures can be
an alternative or complement to naturebased transformative adaptation (Figure 6). A
governance example of transformative
adaptation is the reform from a centralized toa decentralized disaster management
agency that improves the efficiency ofhumanitarian
responses
tohazards.
Transformative adaptation can also be basedon financial innovation, such as the payment
of insurance premiums that are automaticallytriggered depending on hazard intensity (e.g.
the number of consecutive days above
specificlevelsofprecipitationor
temperature). In an example from the energy
sector, transformative adaptation might be

the societal shift toward more efficientbuildings and industrial processes that cansave water or energy for other adaptations(e.g. watering, heating or cooling). The
introduction of new technologies can also
drive transformative adaptation. For example,
new early warning systems can improve
people’s preparedness to climate-related
hazards. Other transformative technologies
for adaptation include using more resistantconstruction materials that withstandextreme floods or cyclones. Additional
examples of transformative adaptation
include new social protection schemes forthe most vulnerable people, participatory
approaches in co-management of scarcenatural resources, or planned humanmigration or relocations.

Figure 6. A possible representation of the spectrum of adaptation solutions for coastal protection fromnature-based to human-based. © Conservation International/Giacomo Fedele.
13

4 Implementing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation
To identify practical examples of naturebased transformative adaptation, we
assessed the portfolio of climate change
adaptation projects of Conservation
International (CI) that were implemented orunder implementation in the last 20 years(2000-2019).
We
reviewed
project
documents,
evaluation
reports,andconducted key informant interviews withproject managers. Among the 57 projects
related to ecosystem-based adaptation, we
identified 6 projects (or combination ofprojects, i.e. programs or initiatives) that mostprominently met the multiple characteristicsof transformative adaptation. We deliberately
gathered examples from a variety of
ecosystems (e.g. forests, agroecosystem,
coasts), climate-related hazards (e.g.
droughts, floods, cyclones), and adaptation
outcomes (e.g. food security, protection ofassets, and water & health) that spanned thethree tropical continents (see Table 3).

Concrete examples of early successes oftransformative adaptation can be a sourceof inspiration for designing new naturebased adaptation projects. Identifying themost effective transformative adaptation
projects and their characteristics can help
scale-up or replicate projects in other areas
to accelerate the shift toward more resilient
development. In the next sections, we
illustrate the ecosystem-based adaptation
activities of the projects that drove
transformative adaptation. We describe howsuch projects contribute to the six
characteristics of transformative adaptation
and by how much. We also illustrate how the
project
beneficiaries
changedtheiradaptation strategies over time toward moretransformative ones, i.e. following a different“adaptation pathway”. Furthermore, weshowcase how the projects improved theability of local families to adapt to changing
landscapes and seascape.

Table 3. Overview of Conservation International’s selected adaptation projects based on ecosystems (EbA)
that have the highest transformative adaptation potential in different land/seascapes.
Country/
ProjectLand/
sea scapeClimatechangehazardCyclones,Drought,
FloodsDrought,
Fire,
FloodsIncreasing
temperatures,plant pests

Main climatechange impact

Stakeholders

Main
EbA measure

Main adaptation

Madagascar

Forestagriculture

Reducedagricultural
productivity
Water scarcity

Small-holder
farmers

Improved foodsecurity

Reducedcoffeeproductivity
Reducedlivestockproductivity
Infrastructuredamages

Grasslands

Drought

Migration,
human-wildlife
conflicts

Grassland
restoration andmanagement
Mangroverehabilitation,bamboo androcks structures
Ecosystembased tourism

Increased
incomeCoastalislands

Drought,
invasive
species
Cyclones,
Sea level rise

Coffee private
sectors(producers,
buyers)Rangeland
farmers,
pastoralists
Coastal tourism,fishing andfarmingcommunities
Multi ethnic
groupsClimate smart
agriculture withagroforestry
Wetlandrestoration/
protection
Improved coffee
cultivations
practices

Colombia

Mountainwetland

MexicoAgriculture

South Africa

Grassland

Philippines

Kenya

Water users

outcome 2

Improved waterprovision
Increased
incomeAssetsprotection

Human andwildlife security/
Cultural heritage
preservation2
Improved food security, improved water/ health, assets protection, maintained culture/human security, improved livelihoods/Income/commodities.
Based on Donatti et al. (submitted)

14© Flickr Creative Commons

Sustainable Forested Landscapesin Eastern Madagascar

15

Climate change impact
Small-holder farmers in the eastern coast of Madagascar are affected by climatechange that is causing more frequent and intense cyclones, floods, and erratic
rainfalls. These extreme weather events have been reducing farmers’ yields of riceand cassava, leading to food shortages lasting 6 months on average.

Nature-based adaptation- Introducing climate smart agriculture practices (agroforestry, irrigation/
drainage, resistant crops, off-season rice, mulching, no tillage, terracing);- Diversifying livelihoods with ecosystem-based activities defined bycommunities (beekeeping, fishponds, leaf handcrafts);- Establishing a climate change trust fund that will support farmers with small
grants for investing in climate smart agriculture practices;- Mainstreaming climate smart agriculture in regional and local development
plans.

Adaptation outcomes
improved
food securityof rural small-holder farmers affected by cyclones, floods, and erratic rainfall(e.g. increase in food security index, decrease in days without food).

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Changing rural farmers livelihoods to be
more diversified, resilient, and financiallysustainable with climate-smart agriculture.

restructuring- Changing local and regional land
management plans to include climatechange considerations.

- Benefiting directly 142,800 farmers in 73
municipalities.

systemwide- Reversing the trend of forest degradationby shifting away from unsustainable forest
uses thanks to improved agricultural
practices.

path-shifting- Shifting from food insecure subsistence
agriculture to more resilient market-based
agriculture.

- Creating a non-traditional financial
investment scheme that combines funds
from public and private sectors forclimate-smart agriculture.

innovative- Strengthening capacities of local
institutions to manage forests anddisasters.

- Engaging multiple government agencies
responsible for land-use managementfrom local level up to national level.

multiscale- Covering ~1,000,000 ha of land in two
forest protected areas.

persistent- Providing smallholder farmers access tolarger and longer-term funding tocontinue the implementation of climatesmart agriculture activities.
16How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Climate-smart agriculture measures in Madagascar have a high transformative
adaptation potential, especially because they lead to persistent changes.

Persistent

Systemwide

Multiscale

Innovative

Path-shifting

Restructuring

see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale““A clean and green environment is a
privilege to boost the rain and farming.”- Farmernear COFAV protected area

“By reforesting some agricultural lands,
farmers have more fertile soils and forest
products - improving local food security.”- Zo Lalaina Rakotobe
Chief of Party, GCF project17

How have rural farmers adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change toward increased food security (past-present)

How many times were the three generations of the Rafanoarana family able
to eat rice during their childhood when affected by a cyclone?
By using climate smart agriculture, small-holder farmers can be more food secure, evenin extreme climate conditions.

1st generation1

rice meals/day
3rd generation

2nd generation

1.5

rice meals/day

3© Andoniaina Rambeloson/Conservation International

rice meals/
day

18BASELINE MAP OF FOOD SECURITY

Corridor
AnkenihenyZahamena

Corridor
AmbositraVondrozo

Data from Conservation International
Madagascar (Household
19 Survey 2019)© Conservation International/ Peter Stonier

Integrated water
management in highmountain wetlands in
Colombia

20

Climate change impact
Climate change and land use are affecting the integrity of high mountainecosystems and paramos in the Colombian Andes, and key ecosystem services,such as water for the local population and the city of Bogotá and its surroundings.
Increasing average temperatures and less predictable rainfall distribution, alongwith land use transformations, are affecting the habitat of key species in highmountain ecosystems and moorlands (páramo), which in turn lead to theirdegradation. This is reducing the water provision to farmers downstream and tothe city of Bogotá.

Nature-based adaptation- Restoring and protecting high mountain ecosystems and páramos(replanting vegetation, removing alien species, improving connectivity);- Introducing silvopastoral and agroforestry systems that mix trees with agriculture(fences with living trees or shrubs, community native trees nurseries);- Diversifying livelihoods related to wetlands with sustainable, low-water, andclimate-resilient uses (e.g. eco-tourism, payment for ecosystem services,fodder banks as dry season feed reserves);- Updating land-use plans to integrate adaptation with ecosystem-based
solutions to protect water provision.

Adaptation outcomes
improved
water provision

for small-holder farmers and citizens of Bogotá(e.g. % increase in water supply during dry periods,% reduction in water demand in livelihoods)

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Benefiting indirectly 20% of Colombia
population (7 M).

- Changing behavior of water
consumption for agriculture anddomestic uses.

restructuring- Restoring connectivity and native statesof high mountain wetlands (Páramo).

systemwide- Introducing climate information systems
and participatory monitoring on
temperature, water and soil conditions.

- Reversing the trend of high mountainand páramo degradation.

path-shifting- Shifting from unsustainable agriculture to
more adapted and diversified agriculture(lower water demand and vulnerability).

innovative- Updating municipality plans about land
use to include adaptation andintroducing climate risk management.
- Strengthening regional water
management institutions to explicitly
include EbA into their plans.

- Involving multiple water users upstream
and downstream (from mountain to city).

multiscale- Covering 3 regions with protectedpáramos and wetlands that encompass
the entire Bogotá watershed.

- Creating a regional forum of multiple
water users.

persistent- Establishing restoration agreementswith family farmers in the watershed.

21How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Wetland restoration and sustainable water use in Colombia have a high transformative
adaptation potential, especially because they lead to multiscale changes.

Multiscale

Systemwide

Restructuring

Path-shifting

Innovative

Persistent

see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale““Having lived here since generations, we understandthe system and we are proud to protect where theriver is born for other water users downhill.”- Don Manuel Rodriguez
Farmer of Finca El Pino

“Because of climate change, we need transformativechanges in land management to maintain the provisionof multiple benefits for water, biodiversity, livelihoods.” - Angela Andrade

Environmental Policy Director
22How have farmers in high mountains adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change toward improved water availability (past-present)

How long did the three generations of the Rodriguez family need to harvest
water during each of their childhoods, when affected by unpredictable rainfalls?
By sustainably managing land nearby the páramo, people in mountains and cities canhave continued water provision throughout the year.
2nd generation

1st generation30

3rd generation

min/day5© Giacomo Fedele/Conservation International

45
min/day

23

BASELINE MAP OF WATER FLOWS

min/day

Data from Ministero de Ambiente y Desarollo Sostenible, Instituto de
Hidrologia Meterologia y Estudio Ambientales Colombia (Oferta
hídrica superficial por área hidrográfica. Periodo. 1974-2012)

24

25

© Hacienda Sonora - Coffee Farm/Flickr Creative Commons

Sustainable Coffee inAgricultural Landscapes in Mexico

Climate change impact
Climate change is increasing the length of the dry season in Mexico with the rainyseason concentrated in fewer months with more intense cold periods. Extreme
weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have become more frequent andintense in recent decades, significantly increasing landslides and floods. In
addition, climate change combined with poor management practices haveincreased the outbreaks of pests and diseases, such as coffee leaf rust.

Nature-based adaptation-

Establishing agroforestry systems with shade trees for coffee plantations,-

Diversifying livelihoods associated with coffee (e.g. honey, ornamental
flowers, fruits, and collecting timber),-

Improving water management (building biodigesters to recycle water,
introducing water efficient coffee processing practices, limiting fertilizers),-

Improving coffee plantation practices (renovating, pruning, using organic
fertilizers, creating community-based tree nurseries).

Adaptation outcomes
Increased
incomeof coffee farmers.
(e.g. % increased income from coffee, % farmers with diversified livelihoods)

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Changing coffee management
practices and diversifying livelihoods
to increase income.

restructuring- Changing coffee processing practices
to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff
and improve water quality.

- Benefiting directly 1,200 people in 17
communities.

systemwide- Introducing multi stakeholders’participatory partnerships (e.g. coffee
producers, associations, NGOs,
government, private sector).

- Shifting the coffee value chain, fromproduction to marketing, toward moresustainable models.

path-shifting- Shifting the land management fromsilos to integrated approaches.

innovative- Connecting multiple stakeholders
along the coffee supply chain, i.e.
producers, cooperative, distribution.

multiscale- Connecting land managers and landuse plans at regional/landscape levelfrom mountains to coast, across states.

- Covering 2 million ha of Chiapas andOaxaca.

- Providing scientific knowledge andprojections on climate vulnerability andresilience to local coffee farmers.
- Strengthening organizations of coffee
producers.
- Establishing voluntary conservationagreements with coffee farmers.

persistent26

How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Sustainable coffee measures in Mexico have a high transformative adaptation
potential, especially because they lead to path-shifting changes.

Path-shifting

Systemwide

Multiscale

Innovative

Restructuring

Persistent
see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale“““Coffee is like a raw diamond,through work in balance with nature
it gains value.”- Don Filadelfo
local entrepreneur of Coffee Pluma Idalgo“Before, young generations were moving away from rural
areas. Now, they have more opportunities to help theirfamilies in coffee production thanks to better market links.”- David Olvera
GEF Project Director
27

How have coffee farmers adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change toward sustainable income (past-present)

For how many months did the three generations of the Ramos family have to temporarily migrate
to look for jobs when their coffee plantations were affected by pests during their childhood?
By sustainably managing shade coffee farms, coffee farmers can maintain local income.
2nd generation

1st

generation

3
months/year

1month/year

3rd generation0?

months/year

28

BASELINE MAP OF COFFEE YIELDS© Luis Muños/Conservation International29

© Tessa Mildenhall

Livestock management incommunal rangelands inSouth Africa

30

Climate change impact
The impacts of climate change in the dry lands of South Africa include increases
in the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, as well as increased
temperatures and reduced rainfall. These changes in climate are increasing theencroachment of woody plants in grasslands and the spread of invasive alien
species. This reduces the productivity of cattle because of reduced intake offodder and higher stress caused by poor quality grazing, reduced water
availability, and more frequent livestock diseases.

Nature-based adaptation-

Restoring or maintaining grasslands (removing alien species, managing
erosion, nutrient concentration, managing fire).

-

Improving livestock management with collective grazing regimes,
climate-resilient breeds, and herder-implemented restoration.

-

Providing livestock production and market access incentives to enable
sustainable livestock production.

Adaptation outcomes
Increased
incomeof cattle farmers and pastoralists.
(e.g. # of jobs created, % increase in income form livestock sales)

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Re-creating livelihood opportunities
for livestock farmers on communal
lands through restoration andsustainable rangeland management.

restructuring- Transforming the supply chain of the
red meat sector through markets that
require conservation actions.

- Benefiting directly 1’600 rangeland
farmers.

systemwide- Covering 3 landscapes with highbiodiversity rangelands (250,000
ha).

innovative- Introducing new conservation
approaches that engage
communities and unemployedpeople as ecorangers.

- Shifting from marginalized and poor
communities to communities that are
empowered and hold jobs insustainable livestock production.

path-shifting

multiscale- Shifting government job creation
investments into climate change
adaptation investment.
- Involving and connecting stakeholders
along the red meat value chain (e.g.
small producers, farmers associations,retailers, consumers).

- Establishing conservation andagriculture agreement with range
farmers associations.

persistent- Institutionalizing long-termmonitoring of grassland and cattle
by communities and private sector.

31

How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Sustainable rangeland related measures in South Africa have a high transformative
adaptation potential, especially because they lead to path-shifting changes.

Path-shifting

Restructuring

Multiscale

Innovative

Persistent

Systemwide
see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale““Growing up here, my life depends onnature… Nature is my life!”- Pastoralist
near Kruger National Park

“African rangelands habitat coevolved withgrazing herds — they depend on each other fora balanced ecosystem.”- Sarah Frazee
former Country Director ofConservation South Africa
32

How have rangeland farmers adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change toward improved grassland productivity (past-present)

How much money did the three generations of the Sepane family spend for
fodder to get through winter when affected by drought in their childhood?
By sustainably managing rangelands, rangeland farmers can maintain or improve productivity,
so that they don’t have to spend money for fodder even in extreme climate conditions.

2nd generation

Rand for a
hay bale

1st generation

00

Rand for a
hay baleRand for a
hay bale© Lerato Mogane / Conservation International100

3rd generation

33

BASELINE MAP OF INCOME FROM LIVESTOCK

Data based on Mmbengwa et al. (2015)(survey of communal livestock farmers)
34© Conservation International/photo by Esther Anne F. Bueno

Green-gray infrastructure insmall island communities of theCentral Philippines

35

Climate change impact
The Philippines are very vulnerable to the impact of climate change as
demonstrated by the scale of devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, thatcaused more than 6,000 lives o be lost and displaced more than 900,000 families.

Nature-based adaptation-

Installing sediment trapping fences and structures for attenuating wave
strength built with locally sourced bamboo poles, bamboo mats, coconut coirmats, twine, sand, and rocks.

-

Conserving and restoring mangroves, sea grasses and coral reefs, andrecreating hydrological connectivity in abandoned fish ponds.

-

Diversifying fishing and farming coastal communities’ livelihoods withecosystem-based activities, such as mangrove nursery establishments,
ecotourism with mangrove board walks, medicinal plants, coco-based
products, and aquasylviculture (i.e. mangroves & aquaculture) and seaweed
cultivations.

Adaptation outcomes
Assetsprotectionof coastal communities.
(% reduction in wave heights and energy,% reduction of damages to houses/causalities)

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Re-structuring coasts bybuilding green-gray solutions.
- Changing people’s settlements
and livelihoods withecosystem-based activities.

restructuringpath-shifting

multiscale- Re-thinking location of
settlements.
- Shifting approach for coastal
protection from pure gray or
green solutions to integrated
green-gray solutions.

- Benefiting directly 4,800 individuals.

systemwide- Introducing new community-built
construction models for coastal
protection.

innovative- Introducing micro-insurance
mechanisms triggered by climaterelated hazards.
- Institutionalizing a national steeringcommittee for coastal protection
policies including green-graysolutions.

- Engaging local, state, andfederal government
stakeholders and design
standards.
- Involving multiple sectors, suchas engineering, environment,
and insurance.

- Covering 12.5 ha of mangroves in 4
wetland systems.

persistent- Establishing an insurance fund thatsustains mangrove management.
-- Establishing conservationagreements with coastal
communities.
36

How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Green-gray coastal infrastructure in the Philippines has a high transformative
adaptation potential, especially because it involves innovative changes.

Innovative

PersistentMultiscale

Path-shifting

Restructuring

Systemwide

see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale““The impact of the strong waves could
have been lessened by the mangrovesthat used to line our coast.”- Fishing woman
in Concepcion community“Communities once victims of storms are now
active responders. To be successful, conservation
actions need to build local capacities.”- Maria Josella Pangilinan
Director for Climate Resilience37How have coastal communities adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change for the protection of houses and assets (past-present)

How do the three generations of the Santos family remember theconditions of the shores during their childhood?
Through green-gray solutions, coastal communities can be better protected in cases ofextreme cyclones.
2nd generation
1st generation50%

3rd generation

coast with
mangroves

5%

coast with
mangroves

75%© Lynn Tang /Conservation International

coast with
mangroves

38

BASELINE MAP OF CYCLONE DAMAGES

Data based on Philippines’ National Disaster Risk
Reduction Management Council (Final Report re Effects of
typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) 06-09 Nov. 2013)39

© Georgina Goodwin

Wildlife eco-tourism in multi-ethnic
conservancies in Northern Kenya

40

Climate change impact
In Kenya, climate change is leading to extended dry periods and severe
droughts that reduce water availability and grassland productivity. This causes
increased conflicts for scarce resources, wildlife competition, and livestock
thefts. During droughts, pastoralists are often forced to herd their livestock
further away from their homelands in search of pasture and water. Altogether,
the lack of water in communal rangelands, fence construction for isolating
wildlife, and immigration of farmers have caused many pastoralists to become
sedentary. Sedentary livelihoods based on livestock and crops cultivation canbe even more vulnerable to climate change compared to pastoralists.

Nature-based adaptation-

Creating eco-tourism facilities based on wildlife conservation thatprovide jobs for local communities, such as guides, rangers or scouts;-

Protecting community and wildlife habitat from poachers and livestockraiders with ranger patrols;-

Reintroducing resilient traditional ranching practices (rotational andplanned grazing, improved cattle breeds, water harvesting and storage,
grass seeds dispersal with elephant dung);-

Discouraging ranching practices that are sources of conflicts byincreasing awareness and alternatives (e.g. avoid expansion ofagriculture in elephant migration corridors, provision of safe water
sources to avoid conflict with wildlife).

Adaptation outcomes
Security of humanand wildlife

In communal grassland conservancies.
(e.g. % reduction in human-wildlife conflicts/crimes, % reduction of forced migration)

Nature-based transformative adaptation- Building relationships between
pastoralists and rangers byworking together on security.

restructuringpath-shifting- Re-structuring the co-existence
between humans and wildlife.

- Involving 24,000 semi-nomadic
pastoralists from the Samburu andother tribes.

systemwide- Shifting human migration
patterns from forced migration
to temporary migration as
adaptation.

- Establishing the first elephantsanctuary in East Africa entirely
owned by a community.

- Reversing the decline ofelephants by reducing illegal
killing and conflicts.

- Offering women with low education
jobs and training as elephantkeepers.

innovative- Linking local rangers to national
enforcement network.

multiscale- Covering an area of roughly 1 million
hectares.

- Connecting eco-tourism taxes
from the treasury to theenvironment ministry and otherministries related to natural
resource management.

- Building environmentally friendly
infrastructure for eco-tourism.

persistent- Strengthening laws on land tenure
and benefits sharing.
41

How transformative is the proposed adaptation strategy?
Eco-tourism and traditional rangeland management in Kenya have a high transformative
adaptation potential, especially because they lead to path-shifting changes.

Path-shifting

Systemwide

Multiscale

Innovative

Restructuring

Persistent
see Annex 1 for qualitative
assessment scale“““In my team, rangers from different ethnic
groups work and live together! A few years
ago, all this was unthinkable.”- Rebecca Kochulem
pastoralist“Tourism development has allowed local communities torealize the benefits of co-existing with elephants, which
they now view as an asset rather than a nuisance.”- Matthew Lewis
Regional Director,
Wildlife Trafficking and Enforcement

42How have ethnic communities near wildlife areas adapted to climate change over time?
Pathways of responses to climate change toward improved human security (past-present)

How many cows were stolen from the three generations of the Lempere
family after a drought during their childhood?
By sustainably managing grasslands with wildlife, ethnic communities can improve theirsecurity, even in extreme climate conditions.

1st generation

20%

cows stolen

3rd generation90%

cows stolen0%

cows stolen© Georgina Goodwin

2nd generation

43

BASELINE MAP OF HUMAN-WILDLIFE CONFLICTS

Data based on Kenya Wildlife
Service (KWS) (in Ngene et al. 2013)44

5 Financing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation
5.1 Which public funds invest in transformative adaptation?
Climate finance, i.e. finance for climatechange related activities, is crucial tosupport the implementation of the Paris
Agreement and both mitigation andadaptation objectives. The total global
climate finance that supports adaptation isestimated to be USD 22 billion in 2015-2016(i.e. 10% of the total public climate finance).
Adaptation actions based on nature, such as
adjustments in agriculture, forestry, and land
uses account for USD 5 billion (or 21% of thetotal public adaptation finance). However,public adaptation finance needs to be
increased by nine-to-nineteen times to help
developing countries adapt to a 2°C future 3.
Among the main barriers for investors are thelack of adequate access to long-term andpredictable capital, and the high risks
associated with these types projects (e.g.
pilots, small scale, limited capacities). In thisregard, public finance can help overcome
investments barriers for adaptation andreduce the investments gaps.

Three of the most important public
multilateral funds that support climatechange adaptation are manged by the
Global Environmental Facility (GEF), theGreen Climate Fund (GCF), and the WorldBank (WB). The strategic objectives of thesethree funds explicitly refer to investing intransformative
climateactionsorenvironmental changes, including foradaptation (see Table 4). Similarly, all thethree funds have recently assessed how theirproject portfolio effectively contributes
toward transformative climate actions. The
definitions and criteria used in theevaluations have similarities and include
elements related to the six characteristics oftransformative adaptation presented here.
They all explicitly refer to at least four out ofthesixcharacteristics(path-shifting,multiscale, systemwide and persistent). Moreexplicit and operational definitions oftransformative adaptation can help funds toprioritize and assess climate actions.

Table 4: Overview of the three major multilateral funds supporting climate change adaptation, the green climate
fund (GCF) the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Climate Investment Fund of the World Bank (CIF WB), andtheir reference to transformative adaptation.

GCF
4Adaptation FinanceEvaluation study referringto transformative
adaptation
Strategic approach totransformative adaptation
Definition andcharacteristics oftransformative adaptation

CIF WB

GEF

5.1 B USD

2.0 B USD

1.6 B USD

2017 by Independent
Evaluation Unit (IEU)

2019 by ITAP andTransformation Change
Learning Partnership (TCLP)
Fund objective and learning
initiative2017 by independent
evaluation office (IEO)“Strategic changes in targetedmarkets and other systems withlarge-scale, sustainable impacts
that accelerate or shift the
trajectory toward low-carbon
and climate-resilient“engagements that help
achieve deep, systemic, andsustainable change with largescale impact in an area ofglobal environmental

Fund objective and funding
criteria“paradigm shift towards lowemission and climateresilient development

pathways” 5development”. 6

Re-structuring
Path-shifting

Resilient pathways

Multiscale
Systemwide
Innovative
Persistent

Scalability
Replicability
Innovative
Sustainability(market and institutions)

Relevance to low-carbon andclimate-resilient development
Large scale
Systemic change
Sustainability(robustness of changes)

Vision for 2020

concern” 7

Depth of change
Relevance to global
environmental issues
Scale
Depth of change
Sustainability

3 UNEP 2018. The Adaptation Gap Report 2018. United Nations

6 https://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/evaluation-and-learning

Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya
4 Based on pledges from GEF 2018; CIFs 2018; GCF 2019 (estimatedwith 50% to adaptation)
5 Board Decision GCF B.09/05 Initial investment framework.

7 GEF Independent Evaluation Office (GEF IEO), Evaluation of GEF

Support for Transformational Change, Evaluation Report No. 122,
Washington, DC: 201

45

5.2 How does the private sector invest in transformative adaptation?

The private sector accounts for 54% of the
global climate finance for 2015/2016(Figure 7). Private sector investors
encompass a variety of actors, including
individual
investors,
privateventurecapitalists, or institutional investors (e.g.
pension funds, insurance companies).
However, due to tracking challenges, theprivate sector investments for adaptation andmore specifically nature-based investments
remain unknown. The private sector plays animportant role in complementing constrained
public finance for adaptation by leveraging
innovation,
expertise,andfinancialresources. In addition, the private sector itself
is increasingly responsive to the risks andopportunities resulting from climate change.
Often private companies invest in adaptation
measures to reduce the climate risk ofphysical damages to their business assets,
operations, and supply chains. However,private sector adaptation strategies using
nature remain very limited (3%) 8.

Private sector investments in adaptation
typically use the same instruments oftraditional business investments. The main
opportunities of engagement include lending
funds for initiating adaptation, developing
technologies and services to reduce climate
vulnerability, and providing insurance tomanage risks. Private investments for naturebased adaptation might be more likely tooccur as co-benefits, for example resulting
from saving measures that reduced the useof water or electricity that can be used forother adaptation purposes. Such adaptation
benefits can be explicitly part of impact
investments that aim to generate social andenvironmental impact alongside a financial
return. In addition, preserving ecosystems
might also be a form of insurance against
future climate change risks. Studies haverevealed private interests related to naturefor some specific activities, namely climatesmart agriculture, eco-tourism, and improved
water and forest management.

Water management 11 bn
Agriculture, Forestry, Land use 5 bn
Disaster risk management 3 bn
OthersAdaptation 22 bn

Total
ClimateFinance

Mitigation 436 bn
Figure 7. Adaptation in Agriculture, Forestry and Land-use represents a small proportion (USD 5 billion)of the total climate finance in 2015/2016 (USD 463 billion). Other orange circles: other crosscutting
adaptation, infrastructure & energy, policy & capacity building, coastal protection. Data: Climate Policy
Initiative (2018).

8

Goldstein et al. 2018 (Nature Climate Change): The private sector’s climate change risk and adaptation blind spots.

46

6 Designing Nature-based Transformative Adaptation
Multiple guidelines have been developed on
how to design adaptation projects, including
those that are nature-based, but theseguidelines do not specifically considertransformative adaptation. Examples ofmethodologies to design nature-based
adaptation projects include guidelines 9,
tools 10, and standards 11 (see footnotes).
However, the design of transformative
adaptation projects requires additional
considerations due to their demanding
characteristics.

In the following sections, we briefly introduce
three methods to help design transformative
adaptation projects. They were chosenbecause they encourage integrated systemthinking that not only can help develop more
appropriate adaptation but also moretransformative ones. These methods are thecause-effects diagrams, back casting, andadaptation pathways.

6.1 Cause-effect system diagrams with leverage points

In order to design adaptation strategies,
especially transformative ones, it is importantto understand how a given social-ecologicalsystem works and changes under different
conditions. Assessing systems’ dynamics
help identify key processes that can affectentire system. Cause-effects diagrams show
the interconnections between key variables
in a system of interest and how they arelinked to each other (Fig. 8). Sometimes thesevariables are connected through circular
relationships (i.e. feedback loop) that canbalance or reinforce changes in the system.
These diagrams not only help navigate thecomplexity of a system, but also help detect
leverage points for adaptation. Developing

projects that target leverage points is crucial
for transformative adaptation because
desired changes need to be amplified toresult in systemic changes. Transformative
adaptation should be designed in a way thatfacilitates the functioning of a system towards
increased adaptation, while also addressing
other factors that drive vulnerability. Suchchanges are usually easier to promote within
the system rather than imposing upon thesystem. For this reason, cause-effectdiagrams should be developed inconsultation with multiple stakeholders andtake into account the diversity of interestsand power.

9 Voluntary guidelines for the design and effective implementation of
ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation anddisaster risk reduction. CBD/SBSTTA/22/INF/1 (July 2018)

10 Ecosystem-based Adaptation Tools Navigator IIED/IUCN/UNEP-

WCMC/GIZ (January 2019)11 A Framework for Defining Qualification Criteria and Quality
Standards FEBA (July 2018)47

48© Conservation International/ Tori Linder

6.2 Visioning with Climate Scenarios

Visioning exercises are another key step indesigningtransformative
adaptation
strategies that build on system diagrams. In
this exercise, a shared possible future vision
is developed in which the well-being of bothpeople and nature are maintained orenhanced despite changing climate
conditions. Scenarios of possible futures
combine different ongoing and expectedclimate change projections, which can becomplemented by people’s perceptions
about ongoing changes. The results of theexercise help define the “big picture” andprovide a long-term shared goal of whatneeds to be achieved to reduce the impact
of climate change in a given place.
Discussing the possible future climate andrelatedvulnerabilities
withmultiplestakeholders helps develop a common
understanding of “where we are today andwhere we want to be”. The gap between thecurrent and future situations represents thetransformations needed to get there.
Because both climate change andadaptation modify systems’ dynamics, it isimportant to account for trade-offs and thelong-term side effects of a selected vision.
This participatory process develops moresustainable and inclusive adaptation
strategies.

Figure 9. Example of a participatory visioning
exercise with 4 possible scenarios for a protectedarea (Palomo et al. 2011).

49

6.3 Backcasting with Adaptation Pathways

Once a common vision for an adapted future
has been defined , the next step is working
backwards in time to identify actions towards
achieving this vision (i.e. backcasting).
Reflecting on the multiple steps necessary toachieve the vision helps outline adaptation
pathways. Adaptation pathways represent
sequences of adaptation decisions thatchange the trajectories of a system. They
also identify actions and actors that can drive
such changes. The assumption is that thecurrent development pathway is less likely tolead to the desired vision under climatechange. The adaptation pathways can belinked to the “Theory of Change” approachfor climate change adaptation.

Developing a Theory of Change help designinterventions that contribute to a long-termgoal. In the case of adaptation, the goal is an
outcome that maintains or improves wellbeing in the face of climate change. The
Theory of Change is used to explicitly explain
the rationale behind an intervention andemphasize the assumptions that link
activities to outcomes. In addition, it can be
useful for developing indicators to trackprogress. Theories of Change areconsidered one of the most robust
approaches
toprogramme
design,monitoring, and evaluation.

Figure 10. Example of Theory of Change for the adaptation of small-holder famers (improved food security) throughecosystem-based adaptation activities (agroforestry, soil conservation, livelihood diversification, reforestation). For
more information see Conservation International 2012 12.

12Conservation International (2013). Constructing theories of change models for Ecosystem-based Adaptation projects: a guidance
document. CI, USA

50

7 Learning about Nature-based Transformative Adaptation

Redirecting current development towards amore resilient (and low carbon) future is anurgent challenge that requires fundamental
changes in how we think about and interact
with nature. As any other global social andenvironmental issue, climate change iscomplex and overwhelming, which makes it
hard to know where to begin to address it.
The scientific and practitioners’ knowledge
synthetized in this booklet provides someearly examples of what it takes to adapt toclimate change in a transformative way.

Successful
storiesofnature-basedtransformative adaptation can inspire newtransformative adaptation that is required toaddress challenges driven by climatechange. Initial lessons learnt from thesestories can support decisions makers toshape policies, projects, or plans thatleverage the potential of nature to address
climate-related vulnerability. In the following
sections, we summarize initial key lessons
emerging when implementing transformative
adaptation projects.

Table 5. Key lessons learnt for moving towards nature-based transformative adaptation

Re-structuring land managementfrom seeing “people above nature” to “people in nature”.

Re-directing unsustainable practices
from changing individual perceptions to changing societal behaviors.

Re-connecting multiple land usesfrom siloed sectoral plans to integrated landscape and seascapes approaches.

Re-scaling landscape interventions
from isolated projects to programmatic and jurisdictional initiatives.

Re-thinking nature’s rolefrom nature protection as a burden to an investment.

Re-timing climate actions with naturefrom short-term technical fixes to multiyear mixed nature-based solutions with longterm impact.

51

7.1 Key messages for public
policy-makers and finance

7.2 Key messages for NGOs
practitionersGovernments can strengthen and step up
climate change adaptation by consideringtransformative adaptation using theoverlooked potential of nature. The
design of such transformative adaptation
could be informed by the key messagespresented about a paradigm shift in how
we think about and use nature to adapt(see Chapter 7).

NGOs could re-consider their adaptation
activities using the perspective oftransformative adaptation. They could
start identifying needs for this type of
adaptation
anddesignprojects
accordingly.
Consideringthesecharacteristics in the project design phase
can increase the chances to achievetransformative adaptation (see Chapter 2).



Bilateral and multilateral agencies as well
as funds that support climate actions in theland-use sector should better define
transformative adaptation based on the
proposed 6 characteristics and their
qualitative assessment criteria (seeChapter 2 and Annex 1).

Governments could improve the inclusionof transformative adaptation based onnature, in addition to coping strategies orincremental adaptation, in national
adaptation plans and communications
such as National Adaptation Plans,
Nationally Determined Contributions (seeexamples for different geographies,
ecosystems, and adaptation outcomes in
the case studies in Chapter 4).

NGOs
can
broadentraditional
collaborations with other organizations
and sectors to jointly drive transformative
adaptation at scale while improving
ownershipandsustainability.
For
example, environmental organizations
could
expandcollaborations withhumanitarian
anddevelopment
organizations as well as involving multiple
levels of governance and local private
sector (as per examples in Chapter 3).

NGOs can ensure that adaptation projects
reach the most climate vulnerable people
and ecosystems and their needs are met
in case of transformative adaptation.
Supporting enabling conditions andcapacities for these beneficiaries will
provide opportunities to start shifting
development pathways and ensuring justtransformative adaptation (see Chapter 3).

NGOs and project managers can embedin adaptation activities
regularopportunities for learning, sharing, andadaptive management, for example byestablishing flexible M&E systems. This isparticularly relevant for transformative
adaptation because of the highuncertainties, non-linear changes andinnovation associated with such projects.

Governments can establish tracking
systems for climate change impacts,
adaptation outcomes, and the needs fortransformative adaptation that can beused for national communications to the
UNFCCC, such as Nationally Determined
Contributions(NDCs),
adaptation
communications, losses and damages(see adaptation outcomes, maps, andindicators in Chapter 4).

52

7.3 Key messages forresearchers

7.4 Key messages for privatecompanies

Research organizations can help developinterdisciplinary methods to assesstransformative adaptation that include
quantitative and qualitative biophysical,
ecological, social, cultural, and institutional
aspects (e.g. Chapter 6). These methods
can also support the development of M&E
systems that are tailored to track andevaluate the benefits provided bytransformative adaptation actions.



The private sector can actively invest intransformative adaptation projects thatprovide social and environmental benefits
alongside financial returns. For example,
adaptation projects that re-shape value
chains, e.g. coffee, cattle, agriculture,
wildlife eco-tourism (as showcased in
Chapter 3). This sector can also invest intransformative adaptation projects that
protect their assets and the ecosystemservices that they depend on.

Researchers can help identify wheretransformative adaptation might beneeded or prioritized compared to otheradaptation strategies through vulnerability
assessments and social and ecologicalmodels (current and projected). See
Chapter 2 for rationale.

The private sector can invest in scaling-up
projects that offer market opportunities
andthepotential
toachievetransformative outcomes. Ideally, suchprojects should be aligned with national
processes and priorities.



Researchers can provide data informing
the design adaptation projects byassessing local vulnerability contexts anddynamics, such as ecological states,
political relations and institutionalarrangements. Such understanding is key
toidentify
leveragepointsfortransformative adaptation and possible
resulting outcomes that might not becompatible with future climate change (i.e.
causing maladaptation).



Private capital, in combination with publicfunds, can incentivize innovation, develop
market opportunities, and support riskier
projects and earlier investments that leadto transformative adaptation.

53

Annexes
Annex Table 1. Typologies for the qualitative assessment of the six characteristics of transformative adaptation basedon the review of 28 projects related to Ecosystem-based Adaptation in the Green Climate Fund portfolio (accessed in
April 2019).

Potential toachieve TA
characteristic

Very low(0-20%)

Low(20-40%)Medium(40-60%)High(60-80%)

Very high(80-100%)

Restructuring

Maintaining thesame current
interactions
between people
and nature

Re-structuringsocial-ecologicalsystem flows (e.g.
information,materials)

Re-structuring socialecological systemprocesses (e.g. land
management, plans,
natural resources
use, collaborations)Re-structuringsocial-ecologicalsystem organization(e.g. land-related
livelihoods,
morphology,
institutions,businesses)

Re-structuringsocial-ecologicalsystem goals (e.g.
power dynamics,
governance, land
cover, businessmodels, value
systems)

Path-shifting

Maintaining
similar businessas-usualdevelopment

Shifting towards
resilient land
management (e.g.
practices, uses)

Shifting towards
resilient land-use
strategies (e.g.
livelihoods,
coordination, plans)

Shifting towards
resilient land-use
approaches (e.g.
anticipatory,
integrated,
multipurpose,empowering)

Involving partially
one single scale(sector,governance,
spatial, or
business)

Involving one
single scale (sector,
governance,
spatial, or business)

Involving two levels
within a scale oracross two scales(sector, governance,
spatial, or business)

Involving threelevels within a scaleor across threescales (sector,
governance, spatial,
or business)

Shifting towards
sustainably resilientsocial-ecologicalsystems (e.g.
governancereforms, newfinancialmechanisms)
Involving four levels
within a scale oracross fours scales(sector, governance,
spatial, or business)

Systemwide

Covering few
villages orcommunities

Covering several
parts of alandscape orseascape

Covering entire
landscapes,
seascapes,
protected areas,watersheds

Covering entire
provinces, districts
or geographies(multiple landscapes,
entire coasts, deltas,
mountains)

Covering entire
regions, states, ormost of a country or
multiple countries

Innovative

Using existing
solutions orpractices

Introducing new
knowledge orpractices

Introducing newtechnologies ormanagement

Introducing newsocial behaviors or
production systems
with integrated andholistic approaches

Introducing newmixes of all previous
solutions

Collaboratingwith existing
institutions, but
actions mostly
driven by project
staff

Strengthening
resilience ofexisting institutions
or signingagreements

Mainstreaming or
institutionalizing
climate resilience in
updatedgovernment plans or
policies

Partnering withgovernment or
private sector for
implementation ofresilient institutions,management
bodies, services

Same as previous +embedding ingovernment ormarket sustainablefinancialmechanisms

Multiscale

Persistent

Number of GCF projects
with varying transformative
adaptation potential (low-high)

14
11

0

2

very lowlow

2
mediumhighvery highAnnex Figure 1. Most of GCF projects related to Ecosystem-based Adaptation have medium and hightransformative adaptation potential based on the assessment of how each of the 6 characteristics oftransformative adaptation are met.
54

Acknowledgments
The authors wish to acknowledge several colleagues for their inputs and review, namely Shyla Raghav,
Stephanie Kimball, Murali Kanakasabai, Aviva Loew, Madeline Berger, Errin Saunders, Kellee Koenig, Erin
Beasley, Sarshen Scorgie, Juan Manuel Labougle, Natalia Acero.

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Published in September 2019conservation.org/EbA@ConservationOrg

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