3

How to Approach Asian Low-Carbon Societies?
Yuzuru MATSUOKA1*, Mikiko KAINUMA2, Junichi FUJINO2 and Tomoki EHARA3
1

Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Kyoto daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
2
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
3
E-KONZAL, Japan*e-mail: matsuoka@env.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstract
In order to achieve global climate stabilization targets, it is an urgent task to develop low-carbon societies in Asia, as Asian countries will account for almost half of both the global population and GHG emissions
by 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario. It is necessary to identify leapfrog development pathways to realizea shift to low-carbon emissions and low resource consumption while simultaneously improving people’s daily
lives through economic growth.
This paper presents the GHG reductions in Asia required for achieving climate stabilization based on
three different GHG emission allocation schemes to reduce global emissions by half by 2050 compared withthe 1990 levels. Next, it describes the current climate change mitigation targets and actions proposed byindividual countries in Asia, as well as the GHG emission reductions required in order to achieve thesenational targets. The gaps between the emission reduction requirements and the current targets proposed byeach country are then identified. In order to bridge the gaps between the situation of the present national targets and the global GHG reduction targets for 2050, it will be necessary to make significant changes to society
itself. Finally, the paper outlines the approach taken by the authors’ team to design pathways towards
low-carbon societies in Asia.
Key words: AIM, Asia, climate change, low-carbon society, mitigation

1. Introduction
The Copenhagen Accord adopted at COP15 confirmed in accordance with the 4th IPCC Assessment
Report that, in order to avoid dangerous anthropogenic
interference with climate systems, it will be necessary tolimit the global temperature increase to within 2°C compared with the pre-industrial level (UNFCCC, 2010a).
Subsequently, the Cancun Agreements at COP16 explicitly referred to the importance of a paradigm shift
towards building a low-carbon society that offers substantial opportunities and ensures continued high growthand sustainable development (UNFCCC, 2010b). In
these latter agreements, emphasis was also placed on‘Equitable Access to Sustainable Development’. In accordance with this viewpoint, in the present study we
examined some of the consequences of equitable accessto allowable GHG emission capacity.
In order to achieve the global climate target, it is anurgent task to develop low-carbon societies in Asia, as
Asian countries will account for almost half of both theglobal population and GHG emissions by 2050 in thebusiness-as-usual (BAU) scenario. It is therefore necessary to identify leapfrog development pathways in orderGlobal Environmental Research
17/2013: 3-10
printed in Japanto realize a shift to low-carbon emissions and low resource consumption while simultaneously improving
people’s daily lives through economic growth. Moreover,the following two specific characteristics of this region’s
scenarios should be taken into account: (1) the diversityof the Asian region, and (2) the multiple transitions (e.g.,demographic, income, technological, infrastructural andinstitutional) that Asian countries will have to passthrough. Based on these viewpoints, the linkage to sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon
society are both feasible and essential.
What is a low-carbon society? Skea and Nishioka(2008) define such a society as one that takes actions thatare compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of allgroups within the society are met and that an equitable
contribution is made towards global efforts to stabilize
the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climatechange, through deep cuts in global emissions.
Many studies have been carried out to analyze thefeasibility of meeting climate stabilization targets. The
IEA released a message in Energy Technology Perspectives in 2008 stating that to meet the challenges of energy©2013 AIRIES4

Y. MATSUOKA et al.

security and climate change as well as the growing
energy needs of the developing world, a global energy
technology revolution would be essential. Then, in 2010,
it presented more practical information and tools to help
kick-start the transition to a more secure, sustainable andaffordable energy future (IEA, 2008 and 2010). Manyother studies have also analyzed portfolios to meetclimate stabilization targets (IEA, 2011; Akashi et al.,2012; Fujimori et al., 2013; Kainuma et al., 2013). The
Energy [R]evolution scenario and the Advanced Energy[R]evolution vision developed by Greenpeace (Krewitt
et al., 2010), as well as the WWF’s ECOFYS scenario(Deng et al., 2011), explore the feasibility of achieving
the global target by introducing renewable energy.
Although stabilization pathways and their feasible
mitigation roadmaps can be proposed, without initiatives
by stakeholders, including national and local governments, business communities and citizens, climate
stabilization will not be achieved. There are still wide
gaps between the required GHG reductions to meet the
2°C target and the consequences of emission reduction
targets being considered in each country in Asia (Kawase& Matsuoka, 2013).
This paper presents the required GHG reductions in
Asia to achieve climate stabilization based on threedifferent GHG emission allocation schemes to reduce
global emissions by half by 2050 compared with the1990 level. The three allocation schemes are described in
Section 2. Next, current climate change mitigation targets
and actions proposed by individual countries in Asia aredescribed, followed by the GHG emission reductions
required to reach these national targets. The gaps
between the emission reduction requirement and thecurrent target proposed by each country are then identified. In order to bridge the gap between the present
efforts and the global GHG reduction targets for 2050, it
will be necessary to make significant behavioural andinstitutional changes in society. Finally the approachtaken by the authors’ team to designing pathways
towards low-carbon societies in Asia is outlined.

2. Required GHG Reductions in Asia to Meet
Global Mitigation Targets
Participants at the COP16 UNFCCC conference in
Cancun in 2010 recognized that countries should takeurgent action to limit the increase in global averagetemperature to a maximum of 2°C relative to the preindustrial level (UNFCCC, 2010b), although the policymakers in Cancun did not specify a reduction target foreach country to achieve such climate stabilization.
There are many uncertainties in estimating the volume of anthropogenic GHG emissions that could be
released into the atmosphere while limiting the temperature increase to within 2°C, including the time trajectories of emission pathways, the composition of GHG
emissions, the climate system, the carbon cycle responseto emissions, and many other factors. Such uncertainties
can be specified in terms of the probability of the tem-

perature remaining below a given target (Matsuoka et al.,2008). Rogelj et al. (2011) have reported that total global
GHG emissions in 2050 with a ‘likely’ (greater than 66%
probability) chance of limiting the temperature rise to
below 2°C indicate a median reduction of 45% (range
35%-55%) below the 1990 level.
The G8 leaders at Heiligendamm, Germany, in 2007
confirmed that GHG emissions should be reduced to half
the current levels by 2050 and agreed to seek to share andadopt this goal with all Parties to the UNFCCC at the
Toyako G8 Summit in Japan in 2008.
In this paper, the target for global GHG reduction isset at half the 1990 level by 2050. The GHG species
considered are restricted to the gases specified in the
Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6).
It is assumed that countries can achieve their reduction
targets by 2020 if they have submitted their targets to the
UNFCCC following the Copenhagen Accord. After 2020,
it is assumed that countries will aim to reduce theiremissions by the amounts specified in their respective
allocation schemes to achieve half the 1990 level ofglobal emissions by 2050.
The following three allocation schemes are considered (Kawase & Matsuoka, 2013):(a) Per capita emissions to be the same after 2050 acrosscountries (pCAP).
(b) Per GDP emissions to be the same after 2050 acrosscountries (pGDP).
(c) Cumulative national emissions from 2020 to 2050
divided by the national population to be the sameacross countries (pCUM).
The required emission reductions by the year 2050 are
estimated based on these three schemes, which reflectequity considerations.
In the case of pCAP, the allocated emissions of acountry would be equal to global emissions multiplied by
the population ratio of the country in question. Countries
expected to have population increases would have a lesssevere emissions target than countries where the population is decreasing. As this scheme does not take economic activity into account, it lacks economic rationality.
pGDP is a measure that equalizes emissions per unitof GDP. While it significantly lessens economic partiality,
it has drawbacks from the standpoint of fairness of percapita emissions, and there is a problem of the allocation
varying significantly according to future GDP estimations, which are more difficult to quantify than population.
As pCUM considers cumulative emissions, it may be
more acceptable than pCAP, which only takes population
into consideration when determining emissions allocations, and pGDP, which only takes economic activity in
2050 into consideration. However, it is more difficult toestimate pCUM than the other schemes, as it has a larger
number of factors requiring clarification such as thestarting year of accumulation and the population to beconsidered as the denominator. In this paper, pCUM iscalculated as the cumulative emissions from 2020 to2050 divided by the cumulative population in the corre-

How to Approach Asian Low-Carbon Societies?

sponding period; i.e., from 2020 to 2050. The year 2020
is taken as the starting year. This is because, if the starting
year is set at before 2020, some countries will have tocurtail their emissions immediately and start absorbing
GHGs, or buy a larger amount of emissions allowances
than the amount of emissions, which is neither realistic
nor recommended as a first choice.
Table 1 shows the required GHG reduction ratios in
2050 compared with the 2005 level in several countries in
Asia and some regions of the world. The assumptions
behind Table 1 are described in Kawase and Matsuoka(2013). This table shows the required ratio of reduction in
2050 compared with the 2005 level, so the global ratio of
GHG reduction in 2050 is 58%, which is somewhat
higher than the 50% target compared with the 1990 level.
The reduction ratios of the Annex I countries in 2050
increase in the order of pGDP, pCAP, and pCUM, to46%-58%, 83%, and 95%, respectively, while those of
the non-Annex I countries increase in the order of pCUM,
pCAP, and pGDP, to 34%, 42%, and 57%-65%, respectively.
Although the ratios of the Asian region excluding
Japan show a similar tendency to those of the non-Annex
I countries in the case of pCAP and pGDP, Asia has ahigher ratio of pCUM than the non-Annex I countries,
with values of 43% and 34%, respectively. This is mainly
because the economic growth rates of Asian developing
countries, especially China, are projected to be higher
than those of other developing countries over the next
few decades, necessitating higher reduction ratios toequalize cumulative emissions per capita by 2050.
Under the pCAP scheme, Japan and Korea have to
make reductions of more than 80%. They are followed by
Malaysia, China, and Thailand, with reduction ratios ofmore than 60%. The reduction ratios are estimated to be
12% and 15% for Vietnam and Indonesia, respectively,
while India is allowed an increase of 51%. Overall, theseare very severe reduction requirements for emerging
countries such as China, Malaysia and Thailand as well
as developed countries such as Japan.
The reduction ratios under the pGDP scheme differ
from those under the pCAP. The reduction ratios under
pGDP decrease for countries and regions with high GDPs
per capita and increase for low-income countries andregions compared with those under pCAP. Although
there are some differences among regions and countries,
most countries would have to prepare for reductions of

5

about 60% (e.g., 58%-63% for the Asian region excluding Japan).
The reduction ratios under the pCUM scheme arevery high for countries with high expected per capita
emissions in 2020 and low population growth rates from2020 to 2050 such as Korea, China, Japan and Malaysia,
whereas that of India is very low, reflecting the lower
economic growth rate and higher population growth rateof India in comparison with, for example, China.
Whichever reduction scheme is adopted, the conditions for achieving the goal are very severe. For example,
Japan’s required reduction ratio would be 83% under
pCAP and that of Asia, about 60% under pGDP, both ofwhich are very stringent targets. Will such large reductions be possible? In order to clarify this, emissions aredecomposed using the Kaya identity as shown in Equation (1). GHG emissions are decomposed by the emissions intensity of energy, energy intensity of GDP, percapita GDP, and population. Taking the logarithmic
derivative of both sides, the rate of emissions change(ΔEmissions / Emissions) is expressed with the sum of
the changes in the factors as shown in Equation (2). The
use of this identity (summing equation) makes it easier toexplain the contribution of emissions increases than theuse of a multiplication equation.
Emission =Emission
Primary energy consumption
×Primary energy consumption
GDP

×

GDP
× Population
Population

(1)

⎛
⎞
Emission⎛ Primary energy consumption ⎞Δ⎜
Δ⎜⎟Primary energy consumption ⎟⎠ΔEmission
GDP
⎠
= ⎝
+ ⎝
Primaryenergyconsumption
Emission⎛⎞⎛⎞
Emission⎜⎟⎜ Primary energy consumption ⎟
GDP
⎝
⎠
⎝
⎠
(−e )
( − x)⎛ GDP ⎞Δ⎜
Population ⎟⎠ΔPopulation+ ⎝++ Residual
Population⎛ GDP ⎞
⎜ Population ⎟
⎝
⎠
( g)

( p)

(2)

Based on Equation (2), the meaning of an 83%
reduction in Japan can be explained as follows. The
left-hand side of the equation, (–e), shows that a rate ofchange of (1 – 0.83)1/45 – 1 = –3.9% per year would benecessary as an annual percentage rate to achieve a

Table 1 Required GHG reduction ratios in 2050 compared with the 2005 level.

Negative values show an increase of allowable emissions compared with the 2005 level.
Values of Indonesia and Malaysia exclude emissions/sinks of LULC sectors.
Ranges of pGDP correspond to the ranges of GDP projections in the references (Kawase and Matsuoka, 2013).

6

Y. MATSUOKA et al.

reduction of 83% compared with the 2005 level over the
45 years from 2006 to 2050. On the right-hand side, thefourth term of the equation, (p), indicates the population,
which is estimated to be 108.5 million in Japan in 2050.
Its annual rate of decrease is about 0.3% (UN, 2011). The
GDP per capita, (g), which is the third term of the equation, is estimated to increase by 0.7% to 0.9% annually(Kawase & Matsuoka, 2013).
Using these numbers, the sum of the first and second
terms of the equation, (–x), becomes – 4.2 to – 4.4, whichsignifies that the annual decrease in the emissions intensity of GDP (the emissions intensity of energy multipliedby the energy intensity of GDP) will be 4.2% to 4.4%.
As Japan’s annual rate of decrease (x) has been at
most 1% over the last few decades, the rate of 4.2% to4.4% would be a difficult target to achieve with only aslight improvement in the efforts to date. A reduction in
the first term on the right-hand side, the carbon intensityof energy, would require low-carbon energy sources if
the introduction of carbon capture and storage is notconsidered. Historical data show that the likely rate of
reduction will be no more than about 1% per year and it
will take time to introduce low-carbon energy sources,considering the availability of new supply technologies
and the timing of replacement of energy infrastructure.
This means that improving the energy intensity of GDP,
which is the second term of Equation (2) (energy
consumption/GDP) is important in the early stages ofplanning for a low- carbon society.
If the energy intensity of GDP is divided by theenergy service intensity of GDP (energy services/GDP)and the energy intensity of services (energy consumption/energy services), the former is concerned with theefficiency of energy services, while the latter is concerned with the efficiency of energy technology (facilities and equipment). The former depends on industrial
structure, land use, urban structure and lifestyles, while
the latter depends on the development and deployment ofenergy conservation technologies. When this factor isbroken down in this way, the roles of energy services andtechnologies become clear. Generally, it is difficult to
speed up the development and widespread deployment ofenergy conservation technologies by more than about 1%
to 2% per year. The remainder should be accomplishedby improving the efficiency of energy services, including
wide-ranging social reforms and the construction of
low-carbon infrastructure. Moreover, these efforts must
be assiduously continued for the next 40 years.

Table 2 shows the required annual reduction rate ofemissions (e), annual per capita GDP growth (g), annual
population growth (p), and required annual reduction rateof emissions intensity of GDP (x) in Japan, China andIndia under the pCAP scheme and in Asia, excluding
Japan, under the pGDP scheme. According to Equation(2), the required annual reduction of the emissions
intensity of GDP is calculated by x = e + g + p. The
values for the required annual reduction of emissions (e)are taken from Table 1. The annual changes in GDP (g)and population (p) are estimated based on past studies.
The last column of Table 2 shows the historicallyobserved reduction rates of emissions intensity of GDP(x0) from 1990 to 2008. These numbers show thatreformation of energy systems, including reorganizationof social and economic structures, is required at an
extraordinary rate, ranging from 7%-9% in China and4%-6% even in India. These rates of improvement in energy systems are far from what has ever been achieved
anywhere. The realization of low-carbon societies posessuch a challenge in emerging countries.

3. Present Climate-change-mitigation Targets
and Actions in Asia
The importance placed on climate-change-mitigation
actions has been increasing in many countries in Asia.
Although each country has different priorities in terms ofsectors and technologies to achieve the target, most Asian
countries have set their own targets for GHG emissions
or relevant indicators including emissions intensity orenergy efficiency. In this section, Asian targets andactions towards low-carbon transitions are reviewed andsummarized.
Japan, the only Annex I country in the Asian region,
has pledged to reduce its GHG emissions by 25% by2020 compared with the 1990 level under the conditionsof the appropriate international framework (UNFCCC,
2009a). Since the emissions target is set in reference tothe level of emissions in 1990, the maximum emissions
from Japan in 2020 can be fixed. Japan has also indicatedits long-term reduction target of an 80% reduction indomestic emissions by 2050 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Japan, 2009); however, in this case, the reference year is
not explicitly stated.
Some countries apply the GHG emissions intensity of
GDP as an indicator for their mitigation action target. For
example, China has announced a 40%-45% reduction of

Table 2 Required annual rates of change in some Asian countries for a 50% global GHG reduction.

How to Approach Asian Low-Carbon Societies?

CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 compared withthe 2005 level as a voluntary target. China has also set alegally binding target of a 17% reduction of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in its Twelfth Five Year Development Plan (2011-2015), a key national economic planning document. Similarly, Malaysia also intends toreduce its emissions intensity by 40% compared with the2005 level by 2020. India’s emissions target is to reduce
the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20%-25% by 2020
compared with the 2005 level, except in the agricultural
sector. In order to achieve this target, an expert group wasorganized and pathways towards low-carbon inclusive
growth were analyzed in detail. The interim report of theexpert group pointed out that India could reduce its
emissions intensity by 33%-35% compared with the 2005
level with aggressive efforts (Planning Commission,
Government of India, 2011). The report also indicatedthat ‘low- carbon inclusive growth’ would be a key pillarof India’s Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017).
Other countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, andKorea have chosen to set their own targets in comparison
with the BAU case. The Indonesian target is a reductionof 26% from the BAU case by 2020. This target can befurther strengthened to 41% if international support is put
in place (UNFCCC, 2009b; Ministry of Environment,
Republic of Indonesia, 2010). Since Indonesia has uniquefeatures in terms of GHG emissions, countermeasures in
sectors related to deforestation and land use are predominant in the mitigation policy portfolio.
Singapore aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 16%
from the BAU level in 2020 if all countries implement
their commitments. As a country with limited resources,
Singapore emphasizes energy efficiency improvement as
a key action for achieving the target. Apart from thisinternational commitment to mitigation, Singapore isalso targeting an energy efficiency improvement of 35%
from the 2005 level by 2030 (National Environment
Agency, Singapore, 2010).
Korea is actively engaging in industrial development
through green growth. In 2008, President Lee Myungbak released the ‘Low-Carbon Green Growth’ concept as

7the country’s new vision for the next 60 years (Green
Growth Korea, 2012). Under the aegis of green growth,
Korea’s emission reduction target is set at 30% fromBAU in 2020.
Thailand and Vietnam have not pledged to reduce
their GHG emissions. However, Thailand has an energy
intensity target specifying a 25% reduction by 2030
(Ministry of Energy, Thailand, 2011), and Vietnam haspresented a study of climate change mitigation scenarios
in its Second National Communication (Ministry of
Natural Resources and Environment, Socialist Republicof Vietnam, 2010).
Table 3 summarizes the climate change mitigation
targets of selected Asian countries. Although their approaches towards low-carbon societies are diverse, Asian
countries have put increasing emphasis on climatechange issues as well as energy issues and taken relevant
actions towards low-carbon transitions. However, thesecurrent actions and pledges are insufficient to achieve theglobal 50% reduction target by the year 2050, as seen in
the conclusion reached by UNEP (2012). The right-handcolumn of Table 3 shows each country’s reduction rate
calculated with the proposed target, and when these values are compared with the corresponding required rates
shown in Table 2, it becomes clear that the rates must be
doubled or tripled in order to reach the global 50% reduction target.

4. Research towards Achieving Low-carbon
Societies in Asia
This paper first outlines the global target to stabilize
climate change, then describes efforts to reduce the GHG
emissions of individual countries in Asia to equitably
contribute to the mitigation of climate change. Next, itsummarizes the reduction targets currently set for eachcountry in Asia and identifies the gaps between thesetargets and the required reductions.
Below, we consider how to close these gaps. The
discussions in the previous sections are based on a prescriptive, top-down approach. This approach is useful for

Table 3 Summary of climate change mitigation targets of selected Asian countries.
Country
China

Indicators

Compared
with

India

CO2 intensity of GDP
Share of non-fossil fuels inprimary energy
Forest coverage
Forest stock volume
GHG intensity of GDP

Indonesia

GHG emissions

BAU

Japan

GHG emissions
GHG emissions
GHG emissions
GHG intensity of GDP
GHG emissions
Energy intensity of GDP
Energy intensity of GDP

1990
N/A
BAU
2005
BAU
2005
2005

Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand

2005
2005

Reduction
target-40 to -45%

Target
year
2020

15%

2020

+40 million ha+1.3 billion m3-20% to -25%
-26%
-41%
-25%
-80%
-30%
-40%
-16%
-35%
-25%

2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2050
2020
2020
2020
2030
2030

Reductionrate, %/y
3.1-3.7

1.4-1.8
0.9
3.1
1.6
1.1

8

Y. MATSUOKA et al.

considering what needs to be implemented over the next
50 years or so at a global or national level, but it is also
necessary to design a feasible roadmap in order toachieve the required emission reductions identified by a
top-down approach. In addition, to realize low-carbon
societies, it will be crucial to take actions at the city or
regional level with a time scale of the next 10 to 20 years
in addition to national-level actions.
This means that it will be necessary to integrate the
top-down global approach with bottom-up national, regional and city-level approaches, and by combining these
two types of approaches, to design feasible roadmaps
towards the realization of low- carbon societies. Several
studies have been carried out to integrate these two
approaches by the participants in the development anddissemination of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model(AIM), including authors and collaborators. Tables 4 and5 introduce some of these low-carbon society studies<http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/>.
Several papers included in this volume also present
some of the outcomes of regional, national, and/or
local-level mitigation approaches under the frameworkof the Asia Low-Carbon Society project (Kawase &Matsuoka, 2013; Fujimori et al., 2013; Ashina & Fujino,
2013; Namazu et al., 2013a and 2013b; Gomi et al.,2013). The Japanese AIM team is conducting cooperative research on low-carbon societies with research
institutions in each region of Asia at the national level(including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
and Malaysia) (Table 4) and at the regional/city/local
level (including three provinces and cities in China, twocities in India and three cities in Malaysia) (Table 5).
The partners in the joint research presented in Tables
4 and 5 include the relevant regional research institutions
and local governments, with whom collaborative studies
have been carried out to develop scenarios and roadmaps
for low-carbon societies. At the start of research collaboration, in all cases, the policymakers and stakeholders
lacked a clear conception of low-carbon societies, or any
idea of targets or a unifying vision. In such a situation,
researchers in the counterpart country play an importantrole in facilitating discussions between the policymakers
and stakeholders and helping them to understand thesignificance and importance of developing scenarios thatcan lead to a low-carbon society. Rather than negotiatingwith the stakeholders, the role of Japanese researchers
has been to undertake capacity building with local researchers and government officials for the developmentof scenarios and to provide support for improvement of
the models for scenario development.
Steps towards low-carbon societies should be accelerated to achieve the reduction target of 50% by 2050 in
the countries shown in Table 3. From this point of view,for the past 15 years or more members of the Japanese
AIM team have exchanged joint research findings withresearchers in Asian countries and held international
workshops and training workshops for capacity building
once or twice a year for researchers and government
officials recommended by the collaborating research
institutes. The training workshops are held for a period of
one or two weeks.
The AIM model has a variety of different sub-models
such as CGE, end-use, and extended snapshot and backcasting models. At the training workshops, the coremodels are explained first, then basic knowledge forunderstanding the models is provided, including energy
statistics and social accounting matrixes. Next, one of the
AIM sub-models is selected and detailed explanations are
given on how the model works and how to interpret theresults obtained from it.
The regions and types of analysis covered depend on
the interests, needs, and capabilities of the participants.
After the participants return to their countries, the Japanese AIM team follows up appropriately by organizing
exchange visits with the institutions involved, holding
web conferences, and exchanging e-mails, as well as
validating the results of estimates, conducting reproducibility activities, and so on.
Some of this joint work has reached the level of
implementation by government authorities, while someremains at the research and proposal stage. Although thisoriginally started as joint research, in some cases the
local research institutions have developed their independent findings into proposals to their own governments
for low-carbon society scenarios, with a focus on ambitious reductions (2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions
Report Commission, 2009).

Table 4 AIM national low-carbon society studies.
China
India
ThailandIndonesia
VietnamBangladesh
Malaysia

Progress up to now
Collaborating research institutes
Extending ERI’s national study (low-carbon development, China) with Energy Research Institute(ERI), National Development
AIM models. Preparing provincial energy, industrial, and economic
and Reform Commission
database in order to integrate national level and provincial level
Constructing Indian national scenarios with ‘Conventional mitigation’ Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
and ‘Sustainable development’ corresponding to global 2 C
Thammasat University
Thailand national study using coupled CGE and enduse model andapplying Thailand NAMA process
Indonesia national study using coupled Energy/enduse model andInstitut Teknologi Bandung Bogor Agriculture
AFOLU model
University
Preliminary analysis of Vietnam energy related and AFOLU related
Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and
GHG emission reduction completed
Environment (ISPONRE), Institute of Meteorology,
Hydrology and Environment, Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment
Preliminary analysis of Bangladesh LCS with energy ExSS completed Department of Environment, Bangladesh
Extending the reduction plan of the 2nd National Communication with Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
ExSS and AFOLU models

How to Approach Asian Low-Carbon Societies?

9

Table 5 AIM regional/local low-carbon society studies.

Iskandar,Malaysia

Putrajaya,
Malaysia
Cyberjaya,
Malaysia

Ratchaburi,
Thailand
Guangzhou,
China

Ahmedabad,
India
Bhopal,India
Kyonggi
Province,
Korea

Progress up to now
Collaborating research institutes
1. Started full scale collaboration with related governmental
institutions
2. Preparting a draft of ‘Blueprint to Low-carbon Iskandar’ including Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
12 acions
Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA)
3. Started assessment study on cobenefits by 3R policies and airFederal Department of Town and Country Planning
quality management
Malaysia (JPBD)
4. Developing Regional Diffused Energy Supply System Model
Malaysian Green Technology Corporation (MGTC)
5. Developing a systematic methodology of Consensus Building
towards LCS
Completed preliminary design of ‘Actions towards Putrajaya Green Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
City 2025.’
Putrajaya Corporation Malaysian Green Technology
Conducted Focus Group Meeting with regional stakeholders
Corporation (MGTC)
Started Cyberjaya Digital Green City 2025 (Cyber DGC 2025) projectwith four pillars: ‘Low-carbon Cyberjaya’ for climate change
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Multimedia
mitigation, ‘Smart 3R Cyberjaya’ for solid waste management,
Development Corporation Sdn. Bhd. (MDeC)‘Livable & Vibrant City’ for a good living environment, ‘Smart
Cyberview Sdn. Bhd.
Digital Network City’ for an ICT-based society
Preliminary analysis of energy related part almost completed withKing Mongkut’s University of Technology
ExSS, now adding AFOLU part
Completed preliminary design of ‘4. Actions for Guangzhou
Low-carbon Social development’ including 5 actions: Action 1:
Convenient Transport, Action 2: Green Building, Action 3:
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion
Decarbonation of Industry, Action 4: Fuel Switch, Action 5:
Low-carbon Electricity
Preliminary analysis of energy related part completed with ExSS
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Completed 1st phase study on ‘Low-Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal
2035’ with 7 actions; Held symposium with regional policy makers
School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal
and stakeholders to stimulate Actions, in Sept. 2011
Preliminary analysis of energy related part conducted with ExSS,
completedSeoul National University

5. Final Remarks
Considering the effects of climate change, action to
reduce GHG emissions by half by 2050 has become anurgent task. Many studies have been carried out to develop scenarios in order to show the feasibility of thisgoal.
Taking an operations-research approach to long-termsocial and economic planning design and control is
nothing new. However, to refocus this approach from thestandpoint of realizing low-carbon societies requires
additional research. This includes multilayered and dispersed interactions from the global to the community
level, the use of ICT in information control and couplingwith the innovation and diffusion of new energy technologies.
Furthermore, considering the size of the anticipatedemission reductions, this problem is not a matter ofmaking certain changes in existing societies, which has
been the assumption of most environmental plans to date.
Rather, it is an issue for which no solution will be foundunless we endogenize the entire social and economic
framework and set a planning horizon of several decades
or more. We believe this issue is a good opportunity to
re-examine and re-enhance earlier environmental research methods and to contribute to the realization of
low-carbon societies.

Acknowledgements
This research was conducted jointly by the National
Institute for Environmental Studies, Kyoto University,

Mizuho Information & Research Institute, and the research institutions shown in Tables 4 and 5. It received
support from the Environment Research and Technology
Development Fund for S-6-1, ‘General research concerning the development and widespread adoption of
methods for drafting, forecasting and evaluating mid- tolong-term policy options towards low-carbon societies in
Asia,’ and A-1103, ‘The effects and impact of Japan’s
global warming policy considering worldwide measuresagainst global warming using a comprehensive assessment model,’ and the Science and Technology ResearchPartnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS),‘Development of scenarios for low-carbon societies in
the Asian region.’
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Yuzuru MATSUOKA
Yuzuru MATSUOKA is a Professor at the Graduate
School of Engineering, Kyoto University. He
specializes in environmental engineering. He
started researching global environmental issues in
the late 1980s. He has developed various kinds ofintegrated models, including bottom-up and topdown models. Recently he has been leading
projects for development of Asian low-carbon societies.

Mikiko KAINUMA
Dr. Kainuma received her B.S., M.S., and Ph.D.
degrees in applied mathematics and physics from
Kyoto University in Kyoto, Japan. She joined
NIES in 1977, and since 1990, she has been
engaging in the development of Asia-PacificIntegrated Model (AIM), which assesses policy
options for stabilizing the global climate, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region, with the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and avoiding the impacts of climate change. From2006 to March, 2011, she headed Climate Policy Assessment Research
Section at the Center for Global Environmental Research in NIES.
Currently she is a Fellow at the Center for Social and Environmental
Systems Research in NIES, and serves as an adjunct professor at Japan
Advanced Institute of Science and Technology.

Junichi FUJINO
Junichi FUJINO is a Senior Researcher at NIES,
Japan, in the Sustainable Social Systems Section,
Center for Social and Environmental Systems
Research. He is also a Visiting Associate Professor
at the Japan Advanced Institute of Science andTechnology (JAIST). His fields of research include environmental modeling analysis, especiallyfor energy-economy system modeling and bioenergy studies. He is
involved in the development of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) toestimate climate change impact and to assess policy options for stabilizing
the global climate. He has been fully engaged in the “Japan Low-Carbon
Society Scenario Project” since 2004 and the “Asia Low-Carbon Society
Scenario Project” since 2009. He received his B.S., M.S and Ph.D. inElectrical Engineering from the University of Tokyo, Japan. He has beenworking in his current position since April 2000.

Tomoki EHARA
Tomoki EHARA is a founder and Representative
Executive of E-konzal, a Japanese consulting firmwith expertise in energy and environmental policies. He has been a member of the Japanese LowCarbon study since 2004. He is also an expert on
renewable energy (mainly photovoltaic) and has
been a member of IEA PVPS Task8 as well as
several renewable energy committees in Japan.

(Received 9 July 2012, Accepted 25 January 2013)