TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for March 2024)

The domestic economy has improved
for the first time in three months～ The tourism industry has boosted the economy.
Going forward, the focus will be on wage increases
and exchange rate movements ～(Companies researched: 26,935; Valid responses: 11,268; Response rate: 41.8%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp< Trend in March 2024: Upswing >By industry: Improvement in 8 out of 10 industries with personal
consumption boosting the economy ahead of the new fiscal year.

The economic diffusion index (DI) in March 2024 was 44.4, up 0.5
points from the previous month, showing the first improvement in threemonths.
Amid the normalization of monetary policy, the domestic economy hasrebounded for the first time in three months, thanks to positive factors
such as the strong performance of the tourism industry and the
expansion of inbound consumption.

By scale: Improvement in all scales for the first time in five months, withthe food and beverage industry driving growth for small to mediumsized firms.
By region: Improvement in 9 out of 10 regions, thanks to the prosperous
tourism industry in each area.
50< Future outlook: Gradual Recovery >48

The economy is expected to pick up moderately in the future, centeredon consumer spending, amid attention to interest rate movements.

46

44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2

43.9

44.9

44.4 44.7

44.8 44.9

44.2

43.9

44.4 44.6 44.8 44.9

44.9 44.9 45.044.7 44.9 45.0 45.1

45.2 45.3

44After 3 months

42400

After 6 months

After 1 year

After 1 month（Prediction→）

Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2023
2024
2025
Projected future DI
43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.4 44.6 44.8 44.9 44.9 44.9 45.0 44.7 44.9 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.3
Change from March.2024
0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
45.7 model.
46.0 46.2 46.3 46.3 46.5 46.3 46.5 46.6 46.8 46.9 47.1*:Upper
The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation
Lower
43.6 43.6 43.6 43.5 43.4 43.4 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.4 43.5

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

Mar

Apr

May

TDB Trends Research March 2024

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theMar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24

Previous
Month

Total

43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.4 44.7 44.8 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.4

0.5

Large Firms

46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0 47.8 47.9 48.4 48.1 47.9 47.7 48.0

0.3

Small to Medium-sized Firms

43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3 43.8 44.1 44.2 44.3 43.6 43.2 43.8

0.6

Micro Firms

42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5 43.0 43.4 43.1 43.3 42.6 42.4 42.9

0.5

Ratio to theMar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0 42.1 43.0 40.1 40.5 40.3 41.2 42.4

Finance44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8 46.8 47.3 48.0 47.0 47.7 47.7 49.2

1.5

Construction

45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4 47.1 47.5 47.8 47.2 47.7 47.5 47.0

▲ 0.5Real Estate

47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6 48.5 48.7 47.9 47.5 48.1 48.3 49.3

1.0

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5 42.6 43.4 44.0 44.6 43.6 43.4 44.8

1.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6 43.0 41.5 40.8 40.1 37.9 37.7 39.0

1.3

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2 39.0 40.3 41.5 40.3 39.9 38.1 38.7

0.6

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1 36.9 37.7 37.2 38.5 37.3 35.7 36.4

0.7

Publishing,Printing

34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9 32.3 32.5 33.1 34.2 32.4 34.6 35.3

0.7

Chemical40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.4 42.7 42.2 42.6 39.9 41.2

1.3

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.8 41.5 41.9 42.0 39.7 38.3 38.3

0.0

General Machinery

43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8 41.2 40.7 40.5 40.6 39.3 40.6 39.7

▲ 0.9

Electrical Machinery

42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8 42.4 42.3 43.0 42.5 43.6 42.5 41.4

▲ 1.1

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2 48.3 46.9 47.2 44.7 41.6 39.3 41.6

2.3

Medical Instruments and Equipment

46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9 44.2 42.9 43.4 44.3 43.9 43.3 45.5

2.2

Other

40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3 40.5 39.4 40.7 39.9 41.9 44.7 45.5

0.8

41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2 40.8 41.1 41.6 41.5 40.4 39.8 40.2

0.4

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

1.2

Precision Machinery,

Total
Food,BEWerages

42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1 45.8 43.3 44.5 45.7 43.1 43.7 44.5

0.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.1 36.1 36.0 36.3 36.9 36.8 37.1

0.3

38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0 38.1 38.0 38.3 38.9 38.0 37.8 37.6

▲ 0.2

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6 38.5 38.4 40.1 40.7 39.6 38.2 40.1

1.9

Chemical

43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1 44.5 44.9 45.1 45.4 44.4 42.2 43.2

1.0

Recycled Resources

41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9 43.9 45.2 42.4 43.8 42.9 41.7 39.9

▲ 1.8

Mining Products

37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7 36.7 37.0 38.1 38.2 37.3 34.9 35.3

0.4

Machinery,Equipment

45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.8 43.9 44.1 44.7 43.7 43.4 43.5

0.1

Other

42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7 41.7 43.1 43.2 42.9 42.0 41.1 42.5

1.4

41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3 41.9 41.7 42.1 42.7 41.6 40.9 41.4

0.5

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research March 2024

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theMar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8 46.5 45.5 44.9 46.4 45.5 43.8 45.3

1.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2 36.6 42.7 39.3 40.0 36.3 40.2 36.5

▲ 3.7

Drugs,Sundries

42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6 42.5 43.8 44.7 46.1 45.8 45.4 44.1

▲ 1.3

Furniture

39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2 36.3 27.2 32.4 32.7 34.0 32.1 30.3

▲ 1.8

Information Machinery and Equipment

40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2 42.7 42.5 44.0 42.7 41.8 42.3 45.8

3.5

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0 41.7 42.4 40.2 39.7 42.4 41.2 40.9

▲ 0.3

Special Merchandise

38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7 39.1 39.4 38.1 38.3 37.8 37.7 40.2

2.5

Various Merchandise

43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5 45.9 45.3 44.3 44.1 42.7 40.9 44.6

3.7

Other

41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2 47.6 46.2 47.2 51.3 40.3 44.0 39.7

▲ 4.3

40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.9 41.2 41.5 40.8 40.6 41.4

0.8

41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3 42.8 44.1 43.8 44.5 43.5 41.9 43.1

1.2

Restaurants

49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2 51.8 47.4 49.4 54.0 50.3 48.0 51.3

3.3

Postal,Telecommunications

52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8 57.4 59.5 57.1 54.2 56.1 51.9 54.2

2.3

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5 46.3 44.1 50.0 42.7 41.7 43.6 43.6

0.0

Leasing,Rentals

48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0 49.2 52.5 52.9 51.6 50.3 50.5 51.7

1.2

Lodging, Hotels

59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5 57.6 59.7 64.3 56.9 51.3 55.3 60.6

5.3

Recreation

50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8 46.2 46.3 44.8 47.9 46.3 46.3 47.2

0.9

Broadcasting

42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1 45.6 42.6 45.6 43.3 44.1 47.1 47.4

0.3

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4 47.8 46.8 49.0 46.9 47.3 46.7 46.7

0.0

Advertising

43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4 45.2 45.6 45.1 46.2 47.0 45.5

▲ 1.5

Information

55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4 55.5 56.0 55.4 56.3 56.1 55.7 55.3

▲ 0.4

Labor Dispatching

47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9 48.9 50.9 52.3 50.0 48.8 50.6 49.8

▲ 0.8

Special Services

50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.2 52.0 51.1 50.3 50.5 51.4 52.4

1.0

Medical,Welfare,Public Health42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4 42.4 43.6 41.8 43.2 44.4 43.2 44.7

1.5

Education

44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8 46.4 45.6 42.6 44.4 43.7 43.1 46.3

3.2

Other

46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9 47.2 47.6 47.2 48.1 47.5 48.5 49.1

0.6

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

Total

Other

50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8 50.4 50.8 50.8 50.9 50.2 50.4 51.0

0.6

38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8 39.2 40.1 38.2 42.8 41.3 41.2 41.1

▲ 0.1

Ratio to theMar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24

PreviousMonthHokkaido

41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8 43.6 43.7 43.3 43.3 41.6 41.8 42.4

0.6

Tohoku41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.2 38.8 39.3

0.5

kitakanto

42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1 42.9 43.0 42.6 43.0 40.9 41.7 42.0

0.3

minamikanto

45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6 46.4 46.3 46.7 46.6 46.5 46.6 47.2

0.6

Hokuriku

42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 42.5 42.1 42.3 42.5 40.0 39.8 41.4

1.6

Tokai

42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4 43.6 44.4 45.1 44.8 44.4 43.1 43.7

0.6

Kinki

43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.6 43.6 43.2 43.6

0.4

Chugoku44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3 44.1 44.9 44.2 43.9 44.3 43.2 43.1

▲ 0.1

Shikoku

40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8 41.2 41.4 41.3 42.5 42.2 41.0 41.1

0.1

Kyushu46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3 47.7 48.6 48.7 49.0 48.3 48.1 48.5

0.4

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research March 2024

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 26,935; Valid
responses: 11,268; Response rate: 41.8%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

518
780
901
3,349
579

Kyushu

1,228
1,851
742
359
961

Total

11,268

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

116

Food,Beverages

Finance

175

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

89

Drugs,Sundries

54

Furniture

22

Construction

1,690

Real Estate

466
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

317

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

127

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

121

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

215

Special Merchandise

234

93

Various Merchandise

46

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing（2,792）Wholesale（2,506）

Retail（763）

132Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

199

Chemical

357

Transportation,Warehousing

468

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

486

Restaurants

103

General Machinery

463

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

293

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

105

Leasing,Rentals

67

Lodging, Hotels

Others70

Recreation

Food,Beverages

326

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

156

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

13

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,251）

8
13
105
90
109
19

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

237

284

Advertising

111

119

Information

539

237

Labor Dispatching

84

28

Special Services

392
123

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

252

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment798

Education

Others306

Others36282
41

OthersTotal

3.Size52

Large Firms

1,662

14.7%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,606

85.3%

micro Firms

3,751

33.3%

Total

11,268100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,268

TDB Trends Research March 2024

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted March 15 – 31 2024

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research March 20245