Asia
1. Outline of the ProjectCountry:

Project title:

Kazakhstan

Mini-Project Type Technical Cooperation for Continuation andImprovement of the Seismological Monitoring System for Earthquake
Preparedness and Risk Assessment in the Region of Almaty City

Issue/Sector:

Cooperation scheme:

meteorological phenomena/Earthquake

Dispatch of Expert

Division in charge:

Total cost:East,Central Asia,and the Caucasus Division, Regional
Department II (East,Southwest,Central Asia,theCaucasus and Oceania))

Period of Cooperation

1 March 2000 - 28
February 2003

Partner Country's Implementing Organization:
IS MS-AS RK

Supporting Organization in Japan:
Building Research Institute, Geographical Survey Institute, Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Related Cooperation:
1-1 Background of the Project
In Kazakhstan, there were more than ten earthquakes that registered a magnitude of seven in the northern Tien-Shan region in
the 19th century. The Almaty City is located in the southeastern part of the Tien-Shan region and has sometimes been hit bysevere earthquakes (with a magnitude of 8.4 in 1889 and 8.2 in 1911). Preparing for another big earthquake, the seismonitoring
system was equipped, but the equipment and techniques used were in decrepit condition. Therefore, the government ofKazakhstan requested the government of Japan the cooperation to dispatch a specialist team and donate equipment since
Japan had accumulated a various experiences in the field of seismology.

1-2 Project Overview
The project fostered the necessary personnel in fields of strong seismic motion observation, sensitive seismic observation andGPS observation so that the IS MS-AS RKcould gather seismic and GPS data and analysis with advanced methods
continuously and effectively.
(1) Overall Goal
To urge IS MS-AS RK to make advanced research for earthquake preparedness and risk management on their own.
(2) Project Purpose
To urge IS MS-AS RK for continuous and effective seismic and GPS data collection and analysis with the improved
seismological monitoring system.
(3) Outputs
1) To enable IS MS-AS RK staff (Observatory staff) to make advanced research for earthquake preparedness and risk
management on their own.
2) To enable IS MS-AS RK staff (Observatory staff) to collect and observe seismic and GPS data at a more advanced level.

4) To enable staff of the observatory to report on the information of seismic activities to IS MS-AS RK accurately and efficiently.
5) To enable IS MS-AS RK staff to make an observatory report with more advanced levels of knowledge.
6) To enable IS MS-AS RK staff (Observatory staff) to analyze and accumulate seismic and GPS data collected by the improved
seismological monitoring system.
(4) Inputs
Japanese side:
Long-term Experts

2Equipment

117 million yen

Short-term Experts

9Trainees received

9

Kazakhstan's Side:Counterparts

1 or more/Japanese expert

Equipment
Land and Facilities
Local Cost

1.2 million tenge (1 million yen)

2. Evaluation Team
Members of Evaluation
TeamTeam Leader/General: Yukihiko EJIRI, Director, First Program Division, Tsukuba InstitutionalCenter, JICA
Evaluation of Technology (Strong Motion Observation): Toshiaki YOKOI, Seismologist, Chief
Research Scientist, International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Building
Research Institute
Evaluation of Technology (Sensitive Seismic Observation): Nobuo HAMADA, Director,Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute
Evaluation of Technology (GPS Observation): Tetsuro IMAKIIRE, Chief of Crustal Deformation
Research Division, Geography and Crustal Dynamics Research Center, Geographical Survey
InstitutePlanning Evaluation: Yukiko MIZUNO, East, Central Asia and the Caucasus Division, Regional
Department II, JICA
Evaluation Analysis: Yasuyuki KURODA, Institutional Development Center of Japan
Interpreter: Naoko OKABAYASHI, Japan International Cooperation Center (JICE)

Period of Evaluation

21 September 2002 - 3
October 2002

Type of Evaluation:
Terminal Evaluation

3. Results of Evaluation
3-1 Summary of Evaluation Results(1) RelevanceThe national plan for disaster mitigation approved by the parliament of Kazakhstan in 2002 included the plan for earthquake
disaster mitigation and referred to the importance of improvement in the administration capacity of Almaty city for earthquake
disaster mitigation. Meanwhile, the top priority for the IS MS-AS RK was to depart from the observation system with the oldequipment and to improve its research quality to the global level in the field of earthquake engineering. Therefore, the project
was aimed at improving observation and analysis abilities of the ISMS-AS RK by replacing old observation equipment with new
equipment and by acquiring techniques of data accumulation, management, maintenance and analysis, and that the IS MS-AS
RK would obtain the ability to independently implement the observation and research at an advanced level. The threat ofinduced earthquake at oil and gas sites has recently been pointed out, and the importance of monitoring techniques has beengrowing. Therefore, the project is highly relevant to the needs of the IS MS-AS RK and the Kazakhstan government.

(2) Effectiveness
It is recognized, from the inspection on provided facilities and the interviews to the related personnel or the organizations they
are working for, that technical and research staff of the IS MS-AS RK have acquired ample knowledge, techniques andadvanced analysis techniques on the digital data to acquire and analyze the seismological data. The staff has become able tomaintain and manage the provided equipment in the field of strong motion observation through the project. In the field ofsensitive seismic observation, the IS MS-AS RK can manage the observation network without any problems. The staff of the IS
MS-AS RK acquired the techniques of field observation, data analysis and crustal deformation analysis at the time of terminal
evaluation. Therefore, there are bright prospects in terms of the accomplishment of the project purpose, and it is considered thatthe project was very effective.
(3) Efficiency
After the implementation of the project, the old strong motion observation equipment and a part of the sensitive seismic
observation equipment at the existing stations in the Almaty area were replaced by modern equipment, and the GPSobservation system was newly introduced. Not only the number of equipment, but also the models, specification and timing of
deployment were appropriate for the project. Therefore, the majority of the provided equipment is successfully and continuouslybeing operated. None of the difficulties of the operation staff replacement, the lack of budget and severe environment for datacollection affected continuous operation of the new observation systems. In the field of GPS observation, the Kazakhstan side
did not have experience on GPS data analysis and was not accustomed to the operating system of the equipment. It was hardfor them to obtain the necessary techniques and utilized the software in the beginning. However, this problem was solved by thedispatch of experts in 2002. In the meantime, it should be pointed out that the selection of participants or the project among thepersonnel who were in charge of operation and data processing was not always appropriate.
(4) Impact
The project reinforced the IS MS-AS RK for upgrading the micro-zonation map of Almaty city for seismic hazard based on thestrong ground motion recorded and for monitoring the information of seismic and crustal activities in and around the city ofAlmaty. The project will contribute to the earthquake disaster mitigation in Almaty city through the refinement of city planning,
construction codes, diagnosis of existent buildings and so on, in addition to the planning for emergency response which will
result in the supply of seismic resistant buildings and houses in the domestic housing market that is growing rapidly today. The
project will also contribute to the development of the housing market in Kazakhstan. The improvement of the system in Almaty
city for seismic risk management will guarantee the safety of the residents against earthquake disaster and protect the tax
revenue from Almaty city that is a major part of the total tax revenue of Kazakhstan. Furthermore, the fear of foreign merchants
and their hesitation of investment will be swept away.
(5) Sustainability
All data acquisition techniques for the strong motion observation, sensitive seismic observation and GPS observation have been
firmly established among the staff of the IS MS-ASS RK. The IS MS-ASS RK is now able to continue the observation ofseismological data after the completion of the project, using the updated equipment for observations. However, as theinformation of the new methodology for the advanced research is necessary for future study, the ability to access to the sourcesof information, such as the Internet and international journals, is indispensable. Meanwhile, the financial sustainability will beimproved because Professor Nusipov has excellent managing abilities, and the Kazakhstan government is planning to allocate abudget to the IS MS-ASS RK. The new business of gathering data on seismic observation data collected and analyzed by the IS
MS-ASS RK at about forty oil and gas sites will be brought about, which will contribute to the sustainability of IS MS-ASS RK.

3-2 Factors that promoted realization of effects(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
N/A.
(2) Factors concerning the Implementation ProcessN/A.

3-3 Factors that impeded realization of effects(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
N/A.

(2) Factors concerning the Implementation Process
N/A.

3-4 Conclusion
The equipment provided by the Japanese side for establishing the strong motion observation network, sensitive seismic
observation network and GPS observation network are all well utilized. Techniques in the field of strong motion observation andsensitive seismic observation have been rooted in the staff of the IS MS-ASS RK. It has become possible to accumulate andanalyze the seismologic data on their own by utilizing the equipment provided by the Japanese side. This is the consequence ofthe cooperation in both software and hardware sides such as provision of observation equipment, dispatch of long and shortterm experts and the training to the counterparts by the Japanese side being successfully organized. It is considered that this is
the result of devoting efforts of all the relating staff of both parties. In conclusion, the project purpose, "the IS MS-ASS RK
becomes to be able to carry out the acquisition and analysis of seismological data using the advanced observation facilities",
has been fully achieved.

3-5 Recommendations(1)It is indispensable to improve the research capability by training personnel and capacity building for sustainable developmentof the IS MS-ASS RK. Therefore, it is necessary to request relating organizations of Kazakhstan and JICA to consider
prioritizing the Group Training Course "Seismology and Earthquake Engineering" in order to encourage the participation ofKazakhstan personnel. It is also necessary for JICA to support and cooperate as much as possible to implement a third-country
training program/local in-country training expansively.
(2) It is recommended that JICA opens the way to accept Kazakhstan personnel as long-term participants who are able to getmaster's degree in Japanese universities in the future.

3-6 Lessons Learned
It is important to plan a project that has high potential to be implemented. The key to success is not only to accept the requests
from the counterpart country, but to gather and analyze the necessary data about the counterpart country and to organize therealizable objectives and appropriate input plans. The Fact Finding Team should gather information on the scope of the budget,
possibility to assure human resources, accepting the system and technical level of the counterpart and expected effects. It isalso important to deliver appropriate equipment and facilities matched with the situation of the country, to select appropriate
experts, to consider the timing of expert dispatch and to effectively utilize the group training in Japan. The experiences attainedin the project can be a good reference for similar projects in the future.
In an expert team dispatch program, it is agreed to implement training for counterpart personnel in Japan. As there are somecourses relevant to the cooperating contents in the group training, it is recommended to utilize the group training for theimprovement of the capabilities of counterpart personnel.

3-7 Follow-up Situation
N/A.