SC/F14/J01

The Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in
the Antarctic-Phase II (JARPAII): origin, objectives, research
progress made in the period 2005/06-2010/2011 and relevance formanagement and conservation of whales and the ecosystem
Luis A. Pastene, Yoshihiro Fujise and Hiroshi Hatanaka
Institute of Cetacean Research, Toyomi-cho 4-5, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0055, Japan
Contact e-mail: pastene@cetacean.jp
ABSTRACTThe International Whaling Commission’s Scientific Committee (IWC SC) will carry out a Workshop to review
the progress made in the research conducted under the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit
in the Antarctic – Phase II (JARPAII) in its first six years (2005/06-2010/11). This review will follow theguidelines agreed by the IWC SC as detailed in ‘Annex P’. A number of scientific papers are now available,
which present JARPAII results for this period. Several analyses on temporal trends in biological parameters havebeen conducted by combining JARPA and JARPAII data. The present paper was prepared to facilitate theunderstanding of this large research program in a comprehensive way, which would not be possible by reading
only the individual papers. We believe that this paper will be useful for the external reviewers, particularly for
those that are not familiar with JARPA and JARPAII. JARPA was carried out between the 1987/88 and 2004/05
austral summer seasons, and this research program produced a considerable amount of data for an improved
understanding of the Antarctic minke whale and its environment. This document summarizes a) the origin andobjectives of JARPA, b) the development of the research objectives of JARPAII based on the findings of JARPA,c) the progress in research under each JARPAII objective, d) the key results, e) interpretation of results andrelevance for the conservation and management of whales and the ecosystem, f) some ideas about the future
direction of JARPAII given the results obtained in the first period, and g) the response to the Terms of Reference(TOR) of the specialist workshop for the periodic review of JARPAII as detailed in Annex P. It is necessary topoint out some difficulties experienced during the first period of JARPAII. These difficulties and theirimplications for the research are explained in this document.
CONTENTS

PAGE

1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION

3

2. WHY JARPA WAS STARTED?

6

3. FROM JARPA TO JARPAII

9

4. PROGRESS IN THE JARPAII RESEARCH

23

5. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS

34

6. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS AND RELEVANCE FOR THE
CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF WHALES AND THE
ECOSYSTEM

36

7. FUTURE DIRECTION OF THE JARPAII

40

8. SUMMARY RESPONSE TO TOR OF THE JARPAII REVIEWWORKSHOPAS SPECIFIED IN ANNEX P

411

9. CONCLUDING REMARKS

45

10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

45

11. LITERATURE CITED

46

Annexes
Annex 1. List of documents for the JARPAII Review Workshop

51

Annex 2. A summary of sample and data collected by JARPAII in the first period(2005/06-2010/11)

55

Annex 3. Protocol for access to samples/data from the Institute of Cetacean
Research (ICR), Tokyo, Japan, under Procedure B

58

Annex 4. Summary of the work carried out by Japanese scientists in response to
several recommendations and suggestions on JARPA research offeredby the IWC SC in 2007 (Update of the table published in IWC, 2008a,
pp 349)60

Annex 5. Brief outline of the research area, target species, sample size and general
methodology of JARPAII

65

Annex 6. Difficulties in the implementation of JARPAII in the first period

712

1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION
Science as the basis for managing natural resources is a long-standing paradigm and fisheries science isrecognized as crucial input to fisheries management world-wide. More than 60 years ago drafters of the 1946
International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling (ICRW) recognized this in the preamble and several
Articles of the Convention: Article IV encourages studies and investigations and the collection of statisticalinformation, Article V requires that regulations related to conservation and utilization of whales be based on
scientific findings and, Article VIII provides for special permits authorizing the killing of whales for scientificresearch and recognizes that continuous collection and analysis of biological data in conjunction with whaling
operations are “indispensable to sound and constructive management of the whale fisheries.” This “sciencebased management” is the context within which Japan’s Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the
Antarctic-Phase II (JARPAII), was developed.
Reasons for conducting research in the Antarctic
There are two main general reasons to conduct research on whales and the ecosystem in the Antarctic. First theAntarctic Ocean supports the existence of a vast amount of marine living resources including krill, oceanic
squids and fishes, seabirds, Antarctic seals and whales. Although there are fewer species of marine mammals in
the Antarctic than in the Arctic, the stocks are substantially larger in the Antarctic and the body sizes ofindividual species are larger, probably owing to a more abundant food supply (Laws, 1977). Before thecommercial whaling started in the Antarctic in 1904 the biomass of large whales was estimated to be about 45
million tons, which was reduced by commercial whaling to about 9 millions tons by the decade of the 70’s (Laws,
1985). Following conservation measures the estimated abundances of several whale species and stocks have been
increasing in recent decades, with some of them perhaps now close to reaching pre-exploitation levels. Therefore
the current biomass of large whales in the Antarctic should be considered substantially larger than the 9 million
tons estimated in the decade of the 70’s.
Then the Antarctic Ocean represents a very important reserve of proteins for the increasing human population.
Rational utilization of the Antarctic marine living resources requires scientific information, which should becollected in a systematic way.
Second, and as noted earlier, the ICRW gives particular importance to science as the basis for managing whale
resources and consequently it encourages research activities through several of its Articles. As indicated above
there is a huge amount of large whales (in terms of biomass) in the Antarctic and it is a responsibility forInternational Whaling Commission (IWC) member countries to carry out research on those resources and on thechanges in their ecosystem. The IWC adopted a moratorium on commercial whaling in 1982, which promoted
scientific research on whale stocks, including those in the Antarctic. Paragraph 10 (e) of the ICRW Schedule
provides as follows: ‘…This provision will be kept under review, based upon the best scientific advice, and by
1990 at the latest the Commission will undertake a comprehensive assessment of the effects of this decision onwhale stocks and consider modification of this provision and the establishment of other catch limits’. It is clear
from this paragraph that the intention of the moratorium was not a permanent ban of commercial whaling. The
necessity of scientific data and thus scientific research is clearly reflected in the terms of Paragraph 10 (e) of the
Schedule, which envisages ‘review’ and ‘comprehensive assessment’. The term ‘Comprehensive Assessment(CA)’ was defined by the IWC SC as ‘an in-depth evaluation of the status of all whale stocks in the light ofmanagement objectives and procedures’ and that ‘this would include the examination of current stock size,
recent population trends, carrying capacity and productivity’ (IWC, 1989).
Research on living resources in the Antarctic is a responsibility of States under international laws including theUnited Nation Convention of the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).
Brief background of the JARPAII research
The rational and research needs of JARPAII were explained in the original research plan, which was presented
and discussed at the IWC Scientific Committee (IWC SC) in 2005 (Government of Japan, 2005).
Ecological research under JARPAII
Within the Antarctic ecosystem the Antarctic krill is a key prey species, supporting different species of baleen
whales, pinnipeds, birds and fish. The large whale populations in the Antarctic have historically undergone
extensive changes, for example those derived from their over-exploitation in the first half of the past century,
which affected krill availability. JARPA research showed that another major transition has been taking place inrecent years, with the recovery of some whale species from past over-exploitation, which again affect the krill
availability in the ecosystem and the biology of krill predators (Fujise et al., 2006).

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The JARPAII research plan therefore emphasized the need to systematically monitor changes of environmental
conditions in the Antarctic over the long-term, as well as changes of biological parameters in krill predators, andchanges in the abundance of cetaceans inhabiting the Antarctic Ocean. It is also emphasized the need to monitor
how cetaceans adapt to global warming and the shifts in the ecosystem structure caused by human activities so as
to provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive management of whale stocks (Government of Japan, 2005).
It should be noted here that continuous monitoring programmes form the backbone of all scientific research
programmes which have the aim of providing advice on sustainable levels of catch for marine or terrestrial living
resources. The reason is that population dynamics, and hence the size of the sustainable yield, can change in amanner that may not be predictable. Factors indexing these dynamics must therefore be monitored so thatchanges can be detected and important scientific information can be provided to the IWC as the basis for their
management decisions.
The JARPA research showed the utility of some biological and ecological parameters as indicators of changes orshift in the ecosystem, and JARPAII monitors these parameters systematically in the long term. Table 1 shows
the parameters monitored during the JARPAII, and their relevance in the context of the JARPAII research.
Table 1. Biological and ecological parameters monitored in JARPAII and their relevance.

Research parameter

How the information is
obtained

Relevance of monitoring

Krill biomass

Echo-sounder and net
surveys

Whale abundance

Systematic sighting
surveys

Whale distribution

Systematic sighting
surveys

Whale recruitment

Population dynamic
models that use age andabundance informationfrom whales
Direct measurementsfrom sampled whales

Krill is a key species in the Antarctic ecosystem.
Changes in its abundance have effects on predatorsand the whole ecosystem.
Fluctuation of abundance of whales through time isimportant for their management. Different levels of
whale abundance have different impacts on krill.
Distribution of whale species can change with timein response to changes in abundance and/or changes
in oceanographic conditions/krill availability.
Same as above. Index of young whale abundance.

Blubber thickness
Stomach content weight
Age at sexual maturity(ASM)
Pregnancy rate
Oceanographic conditions

Index of body condition. Better nutritional condition(e.g. better availability of krill) will be reflected inthicker blubber.
Index of body condition. Better nutritional condition
will be reflected in heavier stomach contents.
Better nutritional conditions will be reflected in ashift of the ASM to younger ages e.g. whales will beable to reproduce at younger ages.

Direct measurementsfrom sampled whales
Examination of transition
phase in earplugs;
examination of ovaries
and testis.
Examination of ovaries
and uterus
Systematic oceanographic
surveys based on CTD
and XCTD

Better nutritional conditions will be reflected inhigher pregnancy rates.
Changes in oceanographic conditions will affectdistribution and krill biomass and in turn theabundance and distribution of whales. Changes inoceanographic conditions might indicate an effect ofclimate changes.

As explained through this document there are scientific evidences of whale abundance fluctuations with time aswell as temporal changes in some of the ecological and biological parameters in the Antarctic minke whale. The
temporal pattern of changes in abundance and parameters can be interpreted with the development of ecosystemmodels. The output of the models will assist in the elucidation of whether these changes are due to competition
among krill predators, due to climate changes affecting the krill abundance, or due to both.

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Management research under JARPAIIJARPAII also focuses on the collection of data for the implementation and improvement of the Revised
Management Procedure (RMP). The IWC adopted the RMP, the procedure for the management of commercial
whaling for baleen whales, but it has yet to be applied, with the exception of operations carried out by Norwaythat has lodged an objection to the commercial whaling moratorium. There is a need for better estimation of
Maximum Sustainable Yield Rate (MSYR) in order to respond to any concerns over the implementation of the
RMP and to improve its likely deficiencies concerning utilization of whale resources. In the past the RMP Small
Areas for Antarctic minke whale in the Antarctic were established as longitudinal sectors of 10º, but at the very
least, there is a need to redefine appropriate Small Areas according to information on stock structure. Also
another of the deficiencies of the current RMP is the zero catch quotas that it turns out when carrying capacity
declines due to competition among whale species. The decrease in abundance caused by the competition is
misinterpreted by the current RMP as an over-exploitation so that catches are set unnecessarily low. That partneeds also to be improved by the use of more realistic multi-species models as stated in the JARPAII original
research plan (Government of Japan, 2005).
A detailed explanation of the background of the JARPAII research and development of the objectives of thisprogram is given in Section 3.
Objective and contents of this document
The JARPAII research proposal submitted to the IWC SC in 2005 stated that ‘a comprehensive review will be
conducted following the completion of the first six years of the research’ (Government of Japan, 2005). The firstsix-year period of the JARPA II research was completed between the austral summer seasons (=seasons) 2005/06
and 2010/11. The IWC SC is planning a workshop to review the data and results of the JARPAII obtained in thisperiod, following the review guidelines in Annex P (IWC, 2009a; 2013a). Under these guidelines a Review Panelis tasked to review and evaluate the data and results obtained by JARPAII.
The present paper explains the origin, objectives and progress in research made during the first six years of
JARPAII in a comprehensive and easy-to-understand manner. The aim of this paper is to assist members of the
Review Panel that may not be familiar with the origin, scientific purposes, and technical details of JARPA and
JARPAII. Also this paper aims to assist as a ‘frame’ for Japanese scientists conducting specific analyses basedon data collected by JARPA and JARPAII so that all those analyses are coordinated in the context of theobjectives and direction of JARPAII.
When we talk about the origin of JARPAII we can not avoid talking about its predecessor, the JARPA. The
JARPA was conducted between the 1987/88 and 2004/05 seasons and produced a considerable amount of data
for an improved understanding of the Antarctic minke whale and its environment (IWC, 2008b). Section 2 of thisdocument shows the origin and objectives of JARPA. JARPAII was elaborated on the basis of the scientificinformation and findings obtained during the JARPA. Section 3 summarizes the key results of JARPA and how
these results were taken into consideration in developing the research objectives of JARPAII.
Progress in research under each JARPAII objective is presented in Section 4 while Section 5 presents a summaryof the key results. Section 6 summarizes the contribution of JARPA/JARPAII results for the conservation andmanagement of whales and the ecosystem, and Section 7 presents some ideas about the future direction of
JARPAII given the results obtained in the first period. Finally Section 8 presents a summary response to theTerms of Reference (TOR) of the specialist workshop for the periodic review of JARPAII as detailed in Annex P(see Annex P, IWC, 2009a; 2013a),
Details of the analyses and results summarized in Section 4 can be found in the individual papers (Annex 1).
This annex also includes a list of relevant background documents. The analyses are based on samples and datacollected by JARPAII in the first period (Annex 2), although some of the analyses on temporal trends wereconducted using both JARPA and JARPAII samples. The data were available to IWC SC members through its
data access protocol (Procedure B). Annex 3 shows the protocol for sample/data access from the Institute of
Cetacean Research under this Procedure. The different analyses conducted took into consideration previous
suggestions and recommendations from the IWC SC. The list of previous recommendations and the responses
from Japanese scientists are summarized in Annex 4. Annex 5 presents a brief outline of the research area, target
species, sample size and general methodology of JARPAII.
At this introduction it is necessary to point out that some difficulties were experienced during the first period of
JARPAII, which meant that this research program could not be implemented as originally planned. Thesedifficulties and their implications for the research are explained in Annex 6.

5

2. WHY JARPA WAS STARTED?
As explained above the moratorium on commercial whaling was not intended as a permanent ban on whaling.
Rather, it was intended as a temporary measure adopted on the basis that knowledge concerning the status ofwhale stocks was insufficient for management using the New Management Procedure (NMP) which was the
IWC’s system for classifying whale stocks and calculating catch quotas at the time.
The NMP adopted in 1974 is a set of rules to classify and set catch limits for stocks, based largely on estimatesof initial and current population levels, those realizing the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). The theory
behind MSY is that through the interplay of the natural responses for a stock to increase when its numbers are
reduced, at each particular size of stock there is a certain surplus of recruitment over natural mortality. This is
low when the stock is at or close to its initial unexploited level and also at very low stock levels, and increases toa maximum (MSY) at some intermediate point somewhere around 50-60% of the original abundance. This yield
represents a harvest which can be taken for an indefinite time without depleting the stock.
Under the NMP, whale stocks were classified in one of three categories: Initial Management Stocks, Sustained
Management Stocks and Protection Stocks, for the most part based on where the population existed on atheoretical population curve. Stocks which were judged to be below 90% of the level providing the MSY were to
be protected, while catches from other stocks were not to exceed the 90% of MSY so that in theory at least, thesestocks would not become depleted to below their MSY levels.
However, implementation of the NMP was problematic primarily because of difficulties in estimating MSY.
These difficulties related to the absence of accurate population abundance estimates and estimates of life history
parameters such as natural mortality rates, age at sexual maturity and recruitment required to calculate MSY. The
difficulties in estimating MSY were then used by members of the Commission (not the IWC SC) as the major“scientific” argument in support of adoption of the moratorium and, to address this matter, the collection of dataon life history parameters and abundance estimates became the main objectives of JARPA.
It should however be noted that the moratorium was adopted in the absence of any agreed advice from the IWC
SC that such measure was required for conservation purposes and contrary to the stated view of the IWC SC thata stock by stock approach to management was more appropriate than a blanket moratorium (IWC, 1974). In
addition, the moratorium rendered impossible the continuous collection and analysis of biological datapreviously realized in connection with commercial whaling operations, the necessity of which is recognized inparagraph 4 of Article VIII of the ICRW.
In order to resolve the scientific uncertainties described above and to pave the way for the resumption ofcommercial whaling in a sustainable manner, Japan developed and implemented the plan for the JARPA, under
Article VIII of the ICRW in 1987. That is to say, the JARPA was commenced to contribute to the“comprehensive assessment” of the effects of the moratorium on whale stocks prescribed by paragraph 10 (e) of
the Schedule.
Sustainable management of resources requires certain basic information with a general understanding that
additional information can reduce uncertainty and improve management. In light of this and the specificscientific uncertainties related to the implementation of the NMP described above, the JARPA was initiated withthe following two objectives (Government of Japan, 1987; 1989):
Objective 1: Estimation of biological parameters to improve the stock management of the Southern Hemisphereminke whale (this included age-specific natural mortality coefficient and reproductive parameters such as age atsexual maturity and their changes). The original wording of this objective had been “estimation of biologicalparameters required for [emphasis added] the stock management of Southern Hemisphere minke whale”.
However this wording was changed as a result of the IWC SC’s refocusing from the NMP towards the RMP as
the basis for management (see in Section 3 a explanation on how biological data can improve the performance of
the RMP).
Objective 2: Elucidation of the role of whales in the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To this end, surveys were
included to estimate the abundance of each whale species and the diet of the Antarctic minke whale, which was
the most abundant species.

6A third objective was added in 1995/96 (Government of Japan, 1995).
Objective 3: Elucidation of the effect of environmental change on cetaceans. This objective was added in
response to the increasing interest in IWC about the effects of environmental changes such as global warming on
cetaceans specifically noted in its resolution on research on environment and whale stocks and the resolution on
promotion of research related to conservation of large whale stocks in the Southern Ocean, both of which wereadopted in 1994.
A fourth objective was added in 1996/97 (Government of Japan, 1996):
Objective 4: Elucidation of the stock structure of Southern Hemisphere minke whales to improve stock
management. This objective was already implicit in Objective 1, and officially acknowledged in 1996/97.
Research under the JARPA was carried out on the basis of IWC’s management Areas IV and V. However,biological evidences for the particular stock boundaries were weak, especially for Antarctic minke whale, whose
data were not considered when the original management Areas were established. There was therefore a need toinvestigate geographical and temporal boundaries of stocks based on biological evidence. Such information isimportant for a) the estimation of biological parameters, which should be ideally estimated on the basis of
biological stocks, b) the interpretation of abundance estimates, and c) the definition of management areas for theapplication of the RMP.
As is clear from the primary objective, the main subject species of the JARPA was the Antarctic minke whale,
the exploitable population size of which was estimated to be at least about 260,000 by the IWC SC when the
research plan was developed (IWC, 1988). During the 1990 comprehensive assessment the IWC SC estimatedthe abundance of this species (total population) as 760,000 animals (IWC, 1991).
The main reason for the failure of the IWC SC at that time to recommend an agreed catch limit under the NMP
for the Antarctic minke whale was that they had not been able to reach agreement on the value of the natural
mortality coefficient and its age-specific patterns. A good summary of the estimates of mortality rates before themoratorium and the difficulties experienced was presented by Horwood (1990 pp. 109-117). The primaryobjective of JARPA was therefore to provide this information.
The secondary objective was based on the recognition that there was an important need for data on the preypredator relationships among the krill, fish and squid, and whales, considering that global scientific interest in the
Antarctic ecosystem had been growing as reflected in the coming into force of the Convention on theConservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) in 1982, and because of the possible
contribution of such data to multi-species management approaches recommended by almost all fisheries
management organizations as well as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Thiswas relevant to the IWC SC “comprehensive assessment”. For example at the 1990 CA of Antarctic minke whale,
information on feeding ecology of this species was presented and discussed in the context of developing an
ecosystem approach to the management of whales (IWC, 1991).
The JARPA was started in the 1987/88 and 1988/89 austral summer seasons as a two-year feasibility study. The
full program started in 1989/90 and was completed in 2004/05. It was a long-term program over 18 years(including the two years of feasibility studies). The surveys were conducted each year in alternating Areas IV (70º-130ºE) and V (130ºE-170ºW). From the 1995/96 season, the JARPA research area was expanded to include
Area III East (35°-70°E, south of 60°S) and Area VI West (170°-145°W, south of 60°S), and then Areas III East
+ IV and Areas V + VI West were surveyed alternately each season. This expansion of the research area wasdone in order to improve the study on stock structure of Antarctic minke whales. Studies on stock structure basedon samples collected in early JARPA surveys suggested the occurrence of more than one stock in Areas IV and
V. The longitudinal expansion of the research area was necessary to investigate distribution and boundaries ofstocks occurring in Areas IV and V. Then the JARPA covered almost half of the Antarctic Ocean. The same area
was surveyed by the JARPAII (Figure 1).

7

Figure 1. Research area of the JARPA and the JARPAII (in green). Surveys covered approximately the half of Antarctic
waters.

Data and results from the JARPA were reviewed in three specialist workshops: an IWC intersessional working
group meetings held in May 1997 (IWC JARPA mid-term review) (IWC, 1998a); a non-IWC JARPA review
workshop called by the Government of Japan in January 2005 (Japan JARPA review) (Anon, 2005); and thefinal IWC intersessional workshop held in December 2006 (IWC JARPA final review) (IWC, 2008b).
Results on the main objective of the JARPA (estimation of biological parameters) were summarized anddiscussed at the IWC JARPA Final Review (IWC, 2008b). The annual natural mortality rate, M, was estimated tobe 0.038 with a SE of 0.036 for I-Stock, and 0.040 with a SE of 0.035 for P-Stock based on Tanaka’s method.
During the review it was noted by some that ‘these estimates spanned such a wide range that the parameterremains effectively unknown at present’ but this was countered by the response by others that ‘prior to JARPA,
the commercial whaling age data were suggesting an apparent mortality rate of around 0.14, but this was
confounded with a suspected trend in stock size. At that time, a finding that the true mortality rate was less than
0.11 would have been regarded as very valuable information’ (IWC, 2008b). Estimates based on ADAPT-VPA
analysis presented a better precision, 0.056 with a CV of 0.16 for I-Stock, and 0.069 with a CV of 0.15 for PStock. The ADAP-VPA analysis was based on age data from both commercial whaling and JARPA. To accept
the latter estimates the Final JARPA Review agreed that ‘every effort should be made to try to resolve the issueof commercial age data as this has important implications as to how well the objectives of the programme can be
met’ (IWC, 2008b). The issue was resolved satisfactorily by the IWC SC in subsequent years (IWC, 2011;2012a), so that the ADAPT-VPA analyses provided accepted estimates of M with reasonably high precision inline with a primary objective of JARPA.
Estimates of other biological parameters of the Antarctic minke whale are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2. Summary of biological parameters of Antarctic minke whale estimated according to one stock structure hypothesis(after IWC, 2008b).

8

Other stock structure and ‘ecological’ results of JARPA are summarized in the next section in the context of thethe JARPAII’s objectives and goals.
Since all commercial whaling had been suspended in the Antarctic, the JARPA has in effect been the only
comprehensive research program that has provided a continuing time series of biological and ecologicalinformation for the assessment and management of whales stocks in the Antarctic, the world’s largest source ofwhale resources. In fact, the IWC JARPA final review workshop agreed that ‘the data set provides a valuable
resource to allow investigations of some aspects of the role of the whales within the marine ecosystem and that
this has the potential to make an important contribution to the IWC SC work in this regard as well as the work ofother relevant bodies such as the CCAMLR’ (IWC, 2008b).

3. FROM JARPA TO JARPAII
Table 3 summarizes the transition from the JARPA to the JARPAII including changes in objectives, target
species, sample sizes and some aspects of the methodology. One of the relevant points in this table is that thedevelopment of research objectives of the JARPAII took into consideration the findings of the JARPA. The main
results of the JARPA on biological parameters were presented in the previous section. During the 18-year period,
the JARPA also demonstrated changes in whale species composition and in some biological parameters of the
Antarctic minke whale. As a whole these changes suggested a recent shift in the ecosystem. This particular point
is further developed in the first part of this section.
The JARPA also provided information on the stock structure of the Antarctic minke whale as well as on theabundance and other biological parameters useful for the implementation and improvement of the RMP. Thisparticular point is further developed in the second part of this section.
Table 3. Summary of the objectives, sample sizes and research items of the JARPA and the JARPAII.
Pre-JARPA

JARPA

JARPA

(87/88-94/95)(95/96-04/05)

Largescientificuncertainty in
Minke whale’s
biologicalparameters

Main objectives were theestimation of biological parameters
and the elucidation of the stock
structure of Antarctic Minke
whalesSample size

300
(Minke)JARPA findings andmovement to ecosystembased management

JARPA II
Feasibility Study(1) Changes in whale species
composition(2) New information on
stock structure(3) Climate change(4) Need for ecosystemapproach(5) Natural mortality

Objectives:(1)Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem(2) Modelling competition among whale
species and future management objectives(3) Elucidation of temporal and spatialchanges in stock structure(4) Improving the management procedure for
Antarctic Minke whale stocks

400(Minke)JARPA II
(07/08-)(05/06-06/07)

850/10/0(Minke/Fin/Humpback)

850/50/50(Minke/Fin/Humpback)Reasons of Enlarging Sample Size: Changes in Research Items, Expected Outcomes, and Research Periods
1. Researchitems• Naturalmortality• Naturalmortality• Stock
structure

2. Expected
outcomes

Estimate of a single biologicalparameter. “Taking a still picture”

Detection of changes in multiple biologicalparameters“Taking a movie”

3. Research
periods

18 years

6 years periods

•
•
•
•
•

Trends in age at sexual maturity
Trends in pregnancy rate
Trends in body condition indices
Genetic mark-recapture
Monitoring of pathology

The JARPAII started in the 2005/06 season. The objectives and goals of the JARPAII were establishedconsidering basically a) the findings of the previous JARPA on the ecological research that indicated changes in
the Antarctic ecosystem; and b) the finding of the JARPA that emphasized the need of new data for the
implementation and improvement of the IWC’s current single-species management procedure (RMP).
Consideration a) above was the basis for developing research objectives 1 and 2 of the JARPA II while9consideration b) was the basis for developing research objectives 3 and 4 of the JARPA II. The general aim of
the JARPAII was to contribute information useful for the sustainable use of Antarctic marine resources including
whales.
Development of the ‘ecological’ objectives of the JARPA II (Objectives 1 and 2) based on the results of thethe JARPA research
Fujise et al. (2006) and Appendix 2 of the JARPAII research plan (Government of Japan, 2005) summarized thebiological changes in the Antarctic minke whale as evidenced by the JARPA research, and provided someecological interpretation for those changes. In this section updated information of the key JARPA results/changes
observed in the Antarctic minke whale and its environment, are provided.
Biological changes in the Antarctic minke whale
Results of the transition phase analyses suggested that Antarctic minke whales became sexually mature atyounger ages (Figure 2). Male and female whales born in 1945 were sexually mature at around 12 years oldwhile those born in 1970 were sexually mature at 7 years old (Thomson et al., 1999; Zenitani and Kato, 2006).
From 1970 there was a halt in the decreasing trend and a slight increase is observed through the 70’s and 80’s
cohorts.

Figure 2. Changes in age at sexual maturity in Antarctic minke whale as determined by transition phase analysis. These
analyses were conducted using biological data (age and sexual maturity information) collected by the JARPA and during pastcommercial whaling operations (Zenitani and Kato, 2006). The trend shown in this figure is for the Indian Ocean Antarctic
minke whale stock, ‘I’ Stock (Pastene, 2006).

Recruitment trend of the Antarctic minke whale in the exploited component of the stock was estimated through
ADAPT Virtual Population Analysis (ADAPT VPA) (Figure 3). There was an increase in the number of
recruitments for the cohorts 1940-1967, which is followed by a sharp decrease in the 1970-1980 cohorts, andstabilization from the 1980 cohort (Mori et al., 2006a).

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Figure 3. Temporal changes in recruitment in the Antarctic minke whale as estimated by ADAPT VPA analysis. These
analyses were conducted using age (from the JARPA and past commercial whaling) and abundance (from the JARPA and
IDCR/SOWER) data (Mori et al., 2006a). The trend shown in this figure is for the Indian Ocean Antarctic minke whale stock,‘I’ Stock (Pastene, 2006).

The JARPA research showed that the blubber thickness (an index of energy storage) decreased at a rate of 0.02
cm/year over the JARPA period (1987/88-2004/05) (Konishi et al., 2008) (Figure 4), and the stomach content
weight has decreased during the JARPA research period as well (Konishi et al., 2012).

Figure 4. Decrease in energy storage in the Antarctic minke whale during the JARPA period. The blubber thickness showed adecrease of 0.02 cm/year over a period of 18 years (after Konishi et al., 2008).

Abundance and abundance trend of large whales
The JARPA sighting surveys showed that the abundance of large whales has been increasing in the last decades,
and the scientific evidences are the following. Abundance and growth rates of humpback whale Breeding Stock
D in Area IV and Breeding Stock E in Area V were 31,000 (16.4% increase by year with 95% CI: 9.5-23.3%)
and 9,000 (12.1% increase by year with 95% CI: 1.7-22.6%), respectively (Matsuoka et al., 2011). The current
abundance of Breeding Stock D is close to that at its pre-exploitation level. Figure 5 shows the abundance trendof this stock in Area IV for the period 1989/90- 2003/04, and compares it with the trend estimated using
IDCR/SOWER sighting data (Matsuoka et al., 2011). There is a clear increasing trend that is consistent between
both the JARPA and the IDCR/SOWER surveys.

11

Figure 5. Abundance trend of humpback whale in Antarctic Area IV based on the JARPA sighting data. Black dots areabundance estimates based on the IDCR/SOWER cruises, which are consistent with those from the JARPA (after Matsuoka
et al, 2011).

The abundance and annual growth rates of fin whales in Areas IIIE+IV and Areas V+VIW were estimated at
6,514 (16.0% CV: 0.78 increase rate) and 5,241 (12.8% CV: 0.60 increase rate) for the period 1989/90-2004/05,
respectively (Matsuoka et al., 2006). It should be noted that abundance estimates for fin whales were madebased on data obtained south of 60ºS and therefore the JARPA surveys did not cover the main distribution areaof fin whales in the austral summer.
The abundance of the Antarctic blue whales was estimated at 1,700 (95% Bayesian interval 860–2,900) in 1996.
Although this figure corresponds to less than 1% of the original levels, blue whales are increasing at 7.3% perannum (95% Bayesian interval 1.4–11.6%) (Branch et al., 2007).
Hakamada et al. (in press) estimated abundance and abundance trends of Antarctic minke whale in Antarctic
Areas IV and V based on the JARPA sighting data, under the assumption of g(0)=1. Abundance estimates for
Area IV range from 16,562 (CV=0.542) in 1997/98 to 44,945 (CV=0.338) in 1999/00, while those for Area V
range from 74,144 (CV=0.329) in 2004/05 to 151,828 (CV=0.322) in 2002/03. Estimates of the annual rates ofincrease in abundance are 1.8% with a 95% CI of [-2.5%, 6.0%] for Area IV and 1.9% with a 95% CI of [-3.0%,
6.9%] for Area V. Adjustments to allow for the g(0) being less than 1 were made by the application of aregression model, developed from the results of the Okamura-Kitakado (OK) method estimate of minke whale
abundance from the IDCR-SOWER surveys, which provides estimates of g(0) from the statistics of the minke
whale school size distribution in a stratum. With this adjustment, abundance estimates increased by an average of
32,333 (106%) for Area IV and 89,245 (86%) for Area V, while the estimates of annual rates of increase andtheir 95% CIs changed slightly to 2.6% [-1.5%, 6.9%] for Area IV and 1.6 % [-3.4%, 6.7%] for Area V.
In 2012 the IWC SC agreed to a new best abundance estimate for Antarctic minke whale in Antarctic open
waters south of 60ºS, based on IDCR/SOWER sighting data. The estimates were 720,000 based on the sighting
data collected during the CPII (1985/86-1990/91) with 95% CI (512,000, 1,012,000), and 515,000 based on thesighting data collected during the CPIII (1992/93-2003/04) with 95% CI (361,000, 733,000). No significant
statistical differences were found between the CPII and CPIII estimates (IWC, 2013b).
By considering the 95% CIs of the estimates it can be suggested that the stocks of Antarctic minke whales arebroadly stable with at most a slight decline.
Another way of reflecting the increase in larger whale species is provided by the plots in Figures 6 and 7, whichshow the temporal changes in whale composition in Areas IV and V, respectively, based on the JARPA and the12

JARPA II sighting data. In Area IV, humpback whales are more frequently observed than Antarctic minke
whales in recent years (Figure 6). In Area V humpback whales are increasing but Antarctic minke whale is still
the predominant species (Figure 7).
Area IV
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

Fin whale
Humpback whale
Antarctic minke whale

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995/96

2005/06

Figure 6. Sighting composition of Antarctic minke, humpback and fin whales in Area IV for two different austral summer
seasons, 1995/96 (sighting data from the JARPA) (Nishiwaki et al., 1996), and 2005/06 (sighting data from the JARPA II)(Nishiwaki et al., 2006). Note that humpback whales are more frequently observed than Antarctic minke whales in recent
years.
Area V
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

Fin whale
Humpback whale
Antarctic minke whale

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1996/97

2006/07

Figure 7. Sighting composition of Antarctic minke, humpback and fin whales in Area V for two different austral summer
seasons, 1996/97 (sighting data from the JARPA) (Nishiwaki et al., 1997), and 2006/07 (sighting data from the JARPA II)(Nishiwaki et al., 2007). Note that Antarctic minke whale is still the predominant species. The composition of humpback
whales in the total sighting have increased but at a slower pace compared to Area IV.

Ecological interpretation of the JARPA results
The Antarctic ecosystem is a very dynamic one with changes in species compositions and habitat occurring
through the time. The ecological effect of the large-scale exploitation of whales in the first half of the 20 thCentury has been discussed by several authors, notably by Law (1977; 1985). Exploitation of large whales in the
Antarctic Ocean started in 1904. Several species of large whales such as blue and humpback whales were heavily
depleted by the first half of the past century (Figure 8). Other species such as the fin and sei whales weredepleted during the second half of the 20th Century. Commercial exploitation of the Antarctic minke whale
started in the early 70’s when all other baleen whale species were already depleted.

13

Figure 8. Catches of baleen whales in the southern Hemisphere, 1910-1977 (after Allen, 1980)

The Antarctic krill is a key prey species in the Antarctic ecosystem supporting different species of baleen whales,
pinnipeds, birds and fish. Some researchers suggested that following the main exploitation period of large baleen
whales in the Antarctic (approximately at the middle of the past century) some 150 million tons of ‘surplus’
annual production of Antarctic krill became available for other krill predators, such as Antarctic minke whales,
crabeater seals, fur seals, penguins and some albatrosses which took advantage of this food surplus to increase
their abundance (Figure 9). This is the so-called ‘krill surplus hypothesis’ (Law, 1977; 1985).

Figure 9. As an effect of commercial exploitation during the first half of the 20th Century most of the large whales in the
Antarctic were reduced to a small percentage of their initial abundance. Other non-exploited species in that period, such as
the Antarctic minke whale, increased its abundance. This figure shows the yearly trend in the number of recruited whales bybaleen whale species (after Beddington and May, 1982).

According to this hypothesis the increased krill availability was translated into better nutritional conditions forsome krill predators like the Antarctic minke whale. In the case of this species this resulted in some biological14changes such as the observed decreasing trend in the age at sexual maturity between approximately 1940 and1970 (Figure 2), which coincide with the period of depletion of some key krill-eater large whale species. A low
age at sexual maturity favored an increase in the recruitment rate in a similar period (Figures 3 and 9).
The Antarctic minke whale perhaps reached an increased maximum carrying capacity by the late 1960s, and thenthe stock responded by stabilizing the age at sexual maturity at 7-8 years old (Figure 2). This biological process
should have resulted in a continuous high rate of newborns after 1970. However, the recruitment was rather
stable after 1970 (Figure 3). The trend in recruitment is consistent with the total abundance of Antarctic minke
whale estimated by sighting data which has been broadly stable since the 80’s.
Evidence available since the 80’s however show that the nutritional conditions for Antarctic minke whales havenot been optimal as revealed by the decrease in energy storage and stomach content weight since the 80’s. Thissuggests less availability of krill for Antarctic minke whales. Less availability of krill for this species could result
from a) intra-specific competition, b) competition with other recovering krill-eater large whale species, e.g. thereversal of Law’s ‘krill surplus hypothesis’, and/or c) climate changes. The implication of these ‘deteriorated’
nutritional conditions is the possibility of a decrease of Antarctic minke whale abundance in the near future.
Regarding to a), the so-called ‘overshooting’ of abundance in the late 1960s might indicate intra-specificcompetition as other large whale species were still heavily depleted at that time. Regarding to b), commercial
whaling of humpback, blue and fin whales in the Antarctic was banned in 1963, 1964 and 1976, respectively. Asan effect of these conservation measures, the abundance of these species increased in recent decades as shown
above, which points toward a recovery from past commercial exploitation. The speed of recovery varies among
these species and among stocks within these species. The increase in the abundance of large whale species thatfeed on krill in the Antarctic means less food available for species like the Antarctic minke whale that once
benefited from the ‘surplus’ of krill. Regarding to c) krill abundance could be affected by environmental changes.
Starting with global warming, large-scale climate changes are appearing in the Antarctic Ocean. For example
recent research has indicated that the amount of Antarctic krill in the Southwest Atlantic decreased by 80%
compared to their numbers in the 1970’s, and the authors attributed this decrease to global warming (Trivelpiece
et al., 2011). If this association is confirmed, the situation could spread to other regions in the Antarctic in the
future.
Section 6 provides an update of the ecological hypothesis, which takes into account the most recent results fromthe JARPAII research, including an explanation of the apparent inconsistency between age at sexual maturity
and recruitment trend after 1970 as noted in the IWC JARPA final review in 2006 (IWC, 2008b).
Strength of the analyses
The individual analyses on temporal changes in the age at sexual maturity based on transition phase data
(Zenitani and Kato, 2006; Mori et al., 2006b); temporal changes in recruitment based on ADAPT VPA analyses(Mori et al., 2006a), food habit and consumption (Tamura and Konishi, 2006), temporal changes in energy
storage based on analyses of blubber thickness (Konishi et al., 2006), abundance and abundance trend of
Antarctic minke whales (Hakamada et al., 2006), and abundance and abundance trend of humpback, fin and blue
whales (Matsuoka et al., 2006), were originally presented to the IWC JARPA Final Review (IWC, 2008b).
As mentioned earlier an ecological interpretation of the changes observed in the Antarctic minke whale and its
environment was presented to that review meeting by Fujise et al. (2006) (updated in the previous section). The
validity of such interpretation depends on the strength and robustness of the analyses of each biological andecological parameter examined.
The IWC JARPA Final Review provided several useful recommendations on how to improve each of theanalyses, and a list of those recommendations was published in IWC (2008a). That list and the status of the workin response to the recommendations are shown in Annex 4. Those recommendations are also valid for some of
the analyses conducted under the JARPA II (see Section 4).
The catch-at-age analyses such as ADAPT VPA and Statistical Catch at Age Analysis (SCAA) have been carriedout not only by Japanese scientists but also by the IWC SC which has supported and funded these analyses for
Antarctic minke whales through a specific group of scientists for at least the last ten years. Many
recommendations to improve the model have been provided by the IWC SC through the years.
Key information for the VPA and SCAA analyses is age (provided by the JARPA/JARPAII and past commercial
whaling) and abundance (provided by the JARPA/JARPAII and the IDCR/SOWER) data. One of the important
recommendations from the IWC JARPA Final Review was the investigation of the comparability of commercial

15and the JARPA age data by re-reading a sub-set of the commercial samples in an appropriately designed blind
test (IWC, 2008b; Annex 4). This task was carried out by Zenitani et al. (2007) and Lockyer (2010). Based on
the latter study the IWC SC agreed in 2010 ‘that no further experiments or analyses on age reading are needed toresolve ageing related problems raised in e.g. the JARPA review’ (IWC, 2011). Furthermore based on new
analyses presented in 2011 the IWC SC ‘agreed that the SCAA development phase is now complete (it has
resolved the issues related to: (a) apparent differences between growth rates estimated from the JARPA andcommercial data sets; and (b) the consistency of age readings amongst readers….’ (IWC, 2012b). The newest
SCAA analyses based on age and abundance data from the JARPA/JARPAII was presented to the IWC SC in2013 (Punt et al., 2013- ForInfo1) (see Section 4). Given the detailed analyses conducted the estimates ofrecruitment trends based on the SCAA are considered reliable.
There has been some discussion at the IWC SC on the validity of the transition phase as indicator of the age atsexual maturity. This was addressed in detail in a published paper by Thomson et al. (1999) who concluded thatthe declining trend in this biological index between approximately 1940 and 1970 had been real. The 1997 IWC
Mid-Term JARPA Review had reached a similar conclusion (IWC, 1998a).
Regarding the blubber thickness and stomach content weight trend analyses based on the JARPA data, the IWC
JARPA Final Review provided several technical suggestions to improve those analyses (IWC, 2008b; Annex 4).
Regarding the blubber thickness trend analyses the IWC JARPA Final Review suggested the inclusion of otherfactors in the analysis such as age, latitude, distance from the ice-edge and non-linearity in trends (IWC, 2008b;
Annex 4). Most of these factors were incorporated into the analyses and the declining trend in blubber thickness
was confirmed and published (Konishi et al., 2008). Subsequently additional analyses were conducted e.g. Skaug(2012) and the same results of a declining trend were obtained. Despite this the IWC SC has not reached aconclusion, and recommended more analyses (IWC, 2012c; 2013c). The latest results, which include
implementation of those recommendations, are presented in SC/F14/J13 (see Section 4).
Regarding the stomach content weight analyses the JARPA Final Review suggested the use of GLM or similar
methods to examine trend, incorporating covariates such as age, size and reproductive status of whales as well as
the date and time of day. In response, a document was prepared and presented to the 2007 IWC SC meeting(Tamura and Konishi, 2007) and by Konishi et al. (2012). These additional analyses confirmed the declining
trend in stomach content weight. Despite this, the IWC SC has not reached a conclusion on this, andrecommended additional analyses (IWC, 2013c). Results of these analyses, which include implementation of
those recommendations, are presented in Konishi et al. (in press- SC/F14/J14) (see Section 4).
Given the extensive data set and detailed statistical analyses conducted in response to IWC SC recommendations,the declining yearly trend in stomach content weight and blubber thickness are considered real.
Regarding the abundance estimates of humpback and Antarctic minke whales, the IWC JARPA Final Review (aswell as other IWC SC meetings) provided a long list of suggestions to improve the analyses (IWC, 2008b; Annex
4). Most of those suggestions were incorporated into new analyses and the results were published by Matsuoka etal. (2011) for humpback whale and Hakamada et al. (in press) for Antarctic minke whale. Therefore estimates ofabundance and abundance trend are considered reliable. Abundance estimates for fin whales have not been
published yet. As noted earlier, the JARPA/JARPAII sighting surveys do not cover the main distribution area of
this species in summer, which is located north of 60ºS.
The results and interpretation summarized above are the background for the Objectives 1 and 2 of the JARPA II.
Ecological objectives of the JARPA II
Objective 1: Monitoring the Antarctic ecosystem
The pattern of changes in the Antarctic minke whale and its environment found by the JARPA research,
including the changes observed in the abundance of other large whale species, is consistent with the hypothesisof a recent major shift in the Antarctic ecosystem (Fujise et al., 2006). These changes are monitored under
Objective 1 of the JARPA II.
Aim:
The aim of the JARPAII under the first objective is the monitoring of temporal trend of several parameters
examined during the JARPA research, which are considered as ‘indicators’ of changes in the ecosystem:

Whale abundance based on sighting data;16-Is the abundance of blue, humpback and fin whales increasing in the JARPA+JARPAII period?
Is the abundance of Antarctic minke whale still maintaining a stable trend at high levels in the
JARPA+JARPAII period?



Whale distribution based on sighting data;-

How the increase in abundance of humpback whale, particularly in Area IV, is affecting the distributionof other whale species, particularly the Antarctic minke whales?

Age at sexual maturity and pregnancy rate based on age and reproductive data;-

Is the age at sexual maturity of Antarctic minke whale maintaining a stable trend or has it increased in
the more recent cohorts in response to deteriorated nutritional conditions?
Is the pregnancy rate of Antarctic minke whale maintaining a stable trend at high level or has it
decreased in the JARPA+JARPAII period in response to deteriorated nutritional conditions?



Recruitment rate based on age and abundance data;-

Is the recruitment rate still maintinaing a stable trend at lower level (in comparison with those in the
60’s-70’s cohorts)?

Body condition based on blubber thickness data;-

Is the blubber thickness declining in the JARPA+JARPAII period?



Stomach content weight;-

Is the stomach content weight declining in the JARPA+JARPAII period?

Contaminant load based on mercury and PCB data;-

What is the pattern of temporal trend of pollutant levels in Antarctic whale samples?
What is the accumulation mechanism of pollutants in the Antarctic ecosystem?



Oceanography based on temperature and salinity profiles;-

How have the oceanographic conditions changed through the JARPA/JARPAII period?

Responses to the questions above will assist in the interpretation or refinement of the ecological hypothesis
derived from the JARPA research.
For the reason given in Annex 6, no humpback whales were sampled in the first period of the JARPAII, and thenumber of fin whales sampled in this period was too low to allow for temporal trend analyses in biological andecological parameters in this species. Furthermore the target sample size of 850 whales for the Antarctic minke
whale was reached only in the 2005/06 season for the reasons given in Annex 6. For this reason the analyses ofyearly changes in biological and ecological parameters under this objective was possible only for the Antarctic
minke whale, and these analyses combined both the JARPA and the JARPAII data.
Although the number of samples of fin whales sampled was not large enough for estimating yearly trend in
biological parameters, information in several fields (biological parameters, feeding ecology, pollutants level andgenetics) was obtained from 16 fin whales sampled in the JARPAII (see Annex 1 and Section 4). Suchinformation is considered useful because of the scarcity of new biological information from this species in the
Antarctic. The only previous information is from the time of the commercial whaling, which was banned in 1976.
Furthermore the documented information can be used in future analyses of larger data sets.
Yearly trend analysis under this objective was not possible for krill biomass because comprehensive data werepossible only for two seasons, and surveys were not conducted since 2009/10 (see Annex 6). Comparability with
the information obtained during the JARPA was problematic because of the differences in analytical procedure
between the two surveys.

17

Yearly trend analysis under this objective was not possible for pollutant load (see reasons in Annex 6) although
the levels found for some pollutants in the JARPAII period were compared with those found in the JARPA
period (see Section 4).
Objective 2: Modelling competition among whale species
As explained above in recent years large whale species have shown signs of recovery and are increasing theirabundance. As a consequence krill became less available for species like the Antarctic minke whale that once
benefitted from the krill surplus in mid of the 20th Century. As shown above there are evidences of deteriorated
nutritional conditions for the Antarctic minke whale possibly as an effect of interspecific competition for krill.
Alternatively less availability of krill in the Antarctic minke whale could be an effect of environmental changes.
Aim:
The aim of the JARPAII under the second objective is to develop models for the competition among whale
species. The key question for the modeling exercise is whether the predators-prey interaction alone can explain
the observed population trends of whale species (and the biological effects observed in the Antarctic minke
whale) in recent decades without the need for recourse to environmental change hypotheses.
It should be noted that the development of the model is just a first step. The establishment of new management
objectives or goals will be considered when the model of competition among whale species has been developed
to a certain extent. Then the final, long-term goal of the modeling exercise is to assist in the development ofmanagement policy based on ecosystem considerations.
Some input data for the ecosystem model development were from the JARPA/JARPAII research e.g. stomach
content of Antarctic minke whale, biomass of krill and abundance of large whale species. Other information was
obtained from the literature.
As explained above no humpback and only a limited number of fin whales were sampled during the first periodof the JARPAII (see Annex 6). At this stage data that the JARPAII collected from these two species by nonlethal methods, e.g. abundance and abundance trends from sighting data were used for the development of
ecosystem models (see discussion on the relevance of biological data from humpback and fin whales for the
ecosystem model in Section 6).
Development of the ‘management’ objectives of JARPA II (Objectives 3 and 4) based on the results of the
JARPA research
When we are referring to current management of whales we are referring to the RMP, a single-species
management procedure adopted by the IWC in 1994 to calculate a catch limit of baleen whales for commercial
whaling. The full RMP process is composed of three steps – (i) Pre-Implementation Assessment, (ii) RMP
Implementation process (including the Implementation Simulation Trials- ISTs), and (iii) Application of theCatch Limit Algorithm (CLA) based on the recommendations derived from step ii) (IWC, 2012d). The CLA canbe used only after steps (i) and (ii) are successfully completed.
At the pre-implementation assessment, the IWC SC reviews all the available scientific data for (i) theestablishment of plausible stock structure hypotheses consistent with the data, (ii) examination of available
abundance estimates, and (iii) information on the geographical and temporal nature of ‘likely’ whaling
operations. On the basis of this assessment, the IWC SC will make a recommendation as to whether or not toformally begin the RMP Implementation.
At the RMP Implementation step, the ISTs are conducted to guarantee the performance of the RMP prior to theactual application of the CLA to calculate a commercial catch limit. The main purpose of the ISTs, which are
specific to species/areas, is to assure a sustainable exploitation of whale resources by avoiding unintended
depletion of individual stocks. A large number of computer simulations are conducted checking different variantsof the RMP against various hypotheses and assumptions. For instance, if there are three stock structure
hypotheses, three estimated past catch scenarios, and two estimates of MSYR (e.g. 1% and 4%), then different
RMP variants will be tested against18 simulation scenarios (three times three times two). The results of the ISTs
will be assessed in detail and only RMP variants which show successful performance will survive the process
and be considered for implementation..

18

On the basis of the results of the ISTs the IWC SC can make a recommendation to the IWC for applying certain
RMP variants provided additional research is undertaken.
The ‘Requirements and Guidelines for Implementations under the Revised Management Procedure’ (IWC,
2012d) specify the kind of data required in each of the steps of the current RMP process. Key information usedin one or more of the RMP process steps are stock structure, MSYR and abundance estimates, and the JARPA
has already provided such information.
The analyses of genetic and morphometric data obtained under the JARPA suggested the occurrence of at least
two stocks in the JARPA research area, which for practical reasons are called ‘Eastern Indian Ocean Stock’ (IStock) and ‘Western South Pacific Stock’ (P-Stock). The data do not support the current IWC Management
Areas. The data also suggested an area of transition in the region around 150-165ºE across which there is an as
yet undetermined level and range of mixing (Figure 10) (IWC, 2008b).

Australia

Figure 10. Stock structure hypothesis of the Antarctic minke whale based on genetic and non-genetic data from the JARPA(Pastene, 2006; IWC, 2008b). The upper figure shows the encounter rates of whales in 10º squares of latitude and longitudein waters 0º-30ºS in October (from Kasamatsu et al., 1995).

Abundance estimates in Areas IV and V were conducted based on the JARPA sighting surveys (Hakamada et al,in press). ADAPT-VPA analyses based on age and abundance data from the JARPA suggested MSYR(1+) values
in the 4-6% range for Antarctic minke whale (Mori et al., 2006a).
All this information, which is important for effective management under the RMP, is refined under the JARPAII
in the context of the current RMP process as well in the context of the future improvement of the RMP. At thecurrent RMP process, particularly at the pre-implementation assessment and ISTs, information on plausible stock
structure hypotheses and mixing, MSYR and abundance is fundamental. The JARPAII will provide more details
about yearly changes in the longitudinal extent of the mixing area and stocks mixing proportions. SCAA models
have been refined following several suggestions from IWC SC meetings. The refinement of the model and the19addition of new age and abundance information from the JARPAII should allow for more robust estimations of
biological parameters such as the MSYR. Such information will contribute to reduce the hypotheses on stocks
structure and MSYR used in future ISTs for this species in the Antarctic.
Regarding improvement of the RMP itself the JARPAII can provide better estimation of MSYR for the CLA
itself, as explained above. One of the deficiencies of the current RMP is the zero catch quota that it turns out
when carrying capacity declines due to competition among whale species. The decrease in abundance caused by
the competition is misinterpreted by the current RMP as over-exploitation so that catches are set unnecessarily
low. That part needs to be improved by the use of more realistic multi-species models and the JARPAII, throughits work under Objective 2, can contribute to that aim.
Management objectives of JARPA II
Objective 3: Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure
As informed above the analyses of genetic and morphometric data under the JARPA suggested the occurrence ofat least two stocks of the Antarctic minke whale in the JARPA research area. The data also suggest an area oftransition in the region around 150-165ºE across which there is an as yet undetermined level and range of mixing.
Aim:
The aim of the JARPAII under this objective is first to update the analyses on stock structure of Antarctic minke
whale in the context of the suggested hypothesis, by using new genetics information obtained in the JARPAII,
and then to estimate the mixing proportion of the I and P Stocks in the transition region, including possible
yearly fluctuation in distribution and mixing proportion. The geographical overlap between the I and P Stocks
under the JARPA II is examined in a wider sector than that suggested in the IWC JARPA Final Review (IWC,
2008b): 130º-175ºE (see Figure 11 and details in Annex 5).

Figure 11. Research area of the JARPAII indicating the wider transition area between 130º and 175ºE (see details in Annex 5).
The transition area was planned to be covered every year in order to investigate the yearly change in mixing proportion of
two Antarctic minke whale stocks. Figure made using Ocean Data View (Schlitzer, 2013).

It should be noted that for the reasons given in Annex 6 not all genetic samples collected during the JARPAII
were available for the analyses.
Some of the scientific questions on Antarctic minke whales under Objective 3 are the following:

Are the additional genetics analyses based on JARPAII data consistent with the current stock structure
hypothesis?
Is the longitudinal range of the transition area the same as that proposed under the JARPA?

20




Has the distribution and mixing proportion of I and P Stocks remained constant in the transition area
through the years, or has it changed by year?
What is the biological validity of the management Areas of the IWC?

Also under this objective, analyses of genetic samples of other large whale species such as the fin, humpback andsouthern right whales is examined to understand the pattern of distribution and population genetic structure ofthese species in the feeding grounds, and the phylogenetic relationship with populations from other ocean basins(southern right whales).
Objective 4: Improving the management procedure for Antarctic minke whale stocks under the RMP
The goals under this objective will be covered with progress of the work under the other three objectives. Thisobjective is divided into two parts, a) contribution to the implementation of the current RMP through theattainment of key information such as abundance, stock structure and MSYR, and b) contribution to the future
improvement of the RMP through the incorporation of a more realistic (and possibly species-specific) MSYR
range into the RMP algorithm, and the incorporation of the effects arising from the inter-species relationships
among whale species.
For a) above abundance and MSYR (through SCAA analyses) will be obtained under Objective 1) while theredefinition of Management Areas and mixing will follow results on stock structure under the Objective 3). Forb) above, MSYR (through VPA and SCAA analysis) will be obtained under Objective 1) and the incorporationof the effects arising from the inter-species relationships among whales species will be examined after thedevelopment of the ecosystem model has been completed under Objective 2.
Figure 12 shows the interaction among the four objectives of the JARPAII.

21

(I) Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem









Whale abundance trends
Whale distribution
Biological parameters trends
Recruitment trend
Prey consumption and energy storage trends
Krill abundanceContaminant load
Cetacean habitat (oceanography, marine debris)(1) (2) (4)(5)(IV) Improving the management procedure for
Antarctic minke whale stocks under the RMP* Contribution for implementation of current RMP(1) Abundance(2) MSYR (ISTs)(3) Redefinition of appropriate management Areas* Contribution for future improvement of RMP(4) MSYR (CLA algorithm)(5) Incorporation of effects arising from the inter-species
relationships among the whale species(3)(II) Modeling competition among whale
species
・Constructing a model of competition among whale species

Defining new management objectives
including the restoration of the cetacean
ecosystem(III) Elucidation of temporal and spatialchanges in stock structure
Figure 12. Objectives of the JARPA II. Several parameters considered ‘indicators’ of change in the ecosystem are studied and monitored under Objective 1. The modeling exercise under
Objective 2 aims to provide interpretations to the pattern of changes observed under Objective 1: can these changes be explained only by the prey-predators interaction without the need forrecourse to environmental change hypotheses? Objective IV depends on the results obtained under the other objectives: stock structure of Antarctic minke whale under Objective III; abundance,
MSYR and natural mortality of Antarctic minke whale under Objective 1.

22

4. PROGRESS IN THE JARPAII RESEARCH
The samples and data obtained during the first six-year period (2005/06 – 2010/11) of the JARPAII are shown inAnnex 2. An outline of the research area, target species, sample sizes and general methodology is given in Annex
5. Results of the JARPAII in the first period are presented in this section, by research objective/topics. Most of
the analyses took into consideration the previous recommendations from the IWC SC (Annex 4).
Note: Throughout this document, ‘significant’ means statistically significant at the 5% level.
Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem
Abundance
SC/F14/J3 estimated abundance and abundance trend of Antarctic minke whale based on sighting data collectedby the JARPA and the JARPAII (1989/90-2008/09 seasons). These analyses addressed most of the previous
recommendations from the JARPA review workshop in 2006 (see recommendations Abundance 1-12 in Annex
4). Abundance estimates were based on the standard line transect method using the program DISTANCE under
the assumption of g(0)=1. The annual rates of increase were estimated using log-linear models. Model error was
taken into consideration in the estimates. Abundance estimates in Area IIIE ranged from 4,478 (CV=0.911) to48,540 (CV=0.711). Those in Area IV ranged from 15,088 (CV=0.645) to 63,794 (CV=0.509) while those in
Area V ranged from 67,661 (CV=0.308) to 151,072 (CV=0.326). Those in Area VIW ranged from 8,434(CV=0.601) to 27,790 (CV=0.507). Estimates of annual rates of increase were 1.1% (95% CI: -2.3, 4.5%) for
Areas IIIE+IV and 0.6% (95% CI -2.2%, 3.3%) for Areas V+VIW. Adjustments to allow for g(0) being less than
1 were made by the application of a regression model developed from the results of the Okamura-Kitakado (OK)method estimate of Antarctic minke whale abundance from IDCR-SOWER surveys, which provides estimates ofg(0) from the statistics of the minke whale school size distribution in a stratum. With this adjustment, abundance
estimates increased by an average of 88.0% for Area IV and 109.0% for Area V. The annual rates of increasechanged to 2.5% (95%CI -1.3, 6.3%) for Area IIIE+IV and -0.6% (95%CI -3.9, 2.6%) for Area V+VIW.
SC/F14/J4 estimated abundance and abundance trend of humpback whale based on sighting data collected by the
JARPA and the JARPAII (1989/90-2008-09 seasons). These analyses addressed most of the previous
recommendations from the JARPA final review workshop in 2006 (see recommendations Abundance 1-13 inAnnex 4). Abundance estimates were based on the standard line transect method using the program DISTANCE
under the assumption of g(0)=1. The annual rates of increase were estimated using log-linear models. Results:
Season1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Area IIIE
Abun.
CV
1,378
0.190
671
0.360
12,081
0.130
4,791
0.200
8,045
0.100
13,8740.387
11,904
0.261

Area IV
Abun.
CV
5,325
0.302
5,408
0.188
2,747
0.153
8,066
0.142
10,6570.166
16,7510.143
31,1340.123
27,7830.115
25,9580.263
29,067
0.255

Season1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09

Abun.
602
4,388
3,678
1,474
3,831
5,128
2,873
9,342
16,43813,894

Area V

CV
0.343
0.623
0.307
0.274
0.430
0.215
0.157
0.337
0.266
0.338

Area VIW
Abun.
CV
1,493
0.185
171
0.721
2,440
0.196
1,614
0.235
2,237
0.353
2,136
0.437
3,609
0.322

Estimates of annual rates of increase in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW are 20.8% (95% CI: 4.1, 37.6%), 13.6%(95% CI 8.4, 18.7%), 14.5% (95% CI 7.6, 21.5%) and 6.2% (95% CI -0.9, 13.4%), respectively. Except for Area
VIW all the trend estimates were statistically significant.
SC/F14/J5 estimated abundance and abundance trends of blue, fin and southern right whales based on sighting
data collected by JARPA and JARPAII (1989/90-2008/09). The estimates are calculated by standard line transect
analysis methods using the program DISTANCE under the assumption that g(0)=1. The annual rates of increase
were estimated using regression model. Results:

23

Blue whale
Season1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Area IIIE
Abun.
CV
192
0.430
234
0.480
546
0.580
80
0.620
546
0.340
354
0.506
551
0.559

Abun.
65
18
66
8
145
225
300
78
196
242

Area IV

Season

CV
0.481
1.078
0.615
0.934
0.604
0.385
0.460
0.734
0.527
0.560

1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09

Abun.
183
257
270
10
206
317
143
489
30
392

Area V

CV
1.010
0.639
0.633
0.749
2.147
0.498
0.526
0.746
0.987
0.460

Area VIW
Abun.
CV
90
0.447
28
0.932
152
0.377
84
1.458
38
1.623

Abundance trend estimate for blue whales was 8.2% (95% CI 3.9%, 12.5%) for Areas IIIE+IV+V+VIW. The
trend estimate was statistically significant.
Fin whales

Season

Abun.
3,087
698
6,764
9,250
6,514
11,1902,610

1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Areas IIIE+IV

Season

CV
0.191
0.307
0.240
0.266
0.261
0.216
0.285

Abun.
1,879
4,423
6,392
3,705
5,241
6,298
14,981

1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09

Areas V+VIW

CV
0.226
0.379
0.211
0.285
0.381
0.628
0.298

Abundance trend estimate for fin whales were 8.9% (95% CI -14.5, 32.4%) and 12.0% (95% CI 2.6, 21.5%) in
Areas IIIE+IV and Areas V+VIW, respectively. The latter estimate was statistically significant.
Southern right whales
SeasonArea IV

Abun.
42
201
161
165
356
34
28
6
912
1,557

1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

CV
1.305
0.485
0.437
0.463
0.343
0.775
1.011
0.761
0.314
0.282

Abundance trend estimate for southern right whales was 5.9% (95% CI -16.4, 28.1%) in Area IV. This trend
estimate was not statistically significant.
SC/F14/J6 estimated abundance and abundance trends of sperm, southern bottlenose and killer whales based onsighting data collected by JARPA and JARPAII (1989/90-2008/09). The estimates are calculated by standardline transect analysis methods using the program DISTANCE under the assumption that g(0)=1. The annual rates
of increase were estimated using regression model. Results:
Sperm whales
Season1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Area IIIE
Abun.
CV
1,183
0.197
1,496
0.258
1,819
0.208
2,314
0.199
2,195
0.211
1,911
0.243
1,387
0.261

Abun.
4,115
3,303
3,061
2,584
2,331
2,751
2,867
1,361
2,068
3,621

Area IV

Season

CV
0.255
0.131
0.115
0.150
0.195
0.202
0.187
0.192
0.276
0.325

1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09

Abun.
2,190
1,729
1,973
1,206
2,171
1,187
1,691
1,860
598
1,195

Area V

CV
0.254
0.208
0.173
0.163
0.315
0.212
0.196
0.214
0.509
0.216

Area VIW
Abun.
CV
498
0.215
101
1.008
560
0.286
402
0.249
737
0.214
554
0.369
505
0.344

Abundance trend estimate for sperm whales were 2.1% (95% CI -4.1, 8.2%), -2.4%, (95% CI -6.2, 1.3%) -3.9%(95% CI -8.2, 0.5%) and 6.6% (95% CI -9.0, 22.3%) in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW, respectively, which were notstatistically significant.

24Southern bottlenose whale
Season1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Area IIIE
Abun.
CV
1,454
0.273
4,044
0.150
7,364
0.383
6,732
0.238
3,928
0.219
866
0.569
3,591
0.263

Area IV
Abun.
CV
1,159
0.340
1,082
0.266
4,035
0.147
6,818
0.118
10,497
0.188
7,974
0.186
6,328
0.151
6,072
0.185
11,828
0.266
6,967
0.208

Area IIIE
Abun.
CV
1,881
0.360
1,232
0.413
1,239
0.501
524
1.036
2,268
0.415
6,300
1.157
2,470
0.872

Area IV
Abun.
CV
7,432
0.263
7,717
0.219
7,132
0.181
11,7860.248
10,161
0.205
10,678
0.219
9,009
0.206
14,374
0.185
8,737
0.362
2,268
0.489

Season1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09

Abun.
1,272
893
5,129
4,184
2,460
5,003
6,729
4,764
4,549
4,980

Area V

CV
0.298
0.447
0.251
0.201
0.377
0.199
0.269
0.204
0.299
0.2227

Area VIW
Abun.
CV
1,515
0.278
1,728
0.407
908
0.396
2,681
0.233
1,685
0.261
2,663
0.404
1,094
0.599

CV
0.250
0.206
0.268
0.222
0.254
0.229
0.188
0.277
0.356
0.606

Area VIW
Abun.
CV
943
0.593
1,413
0.553
4,066
0.350
1,574
0.428
2,827
0.807
1,312
0.735

Abundance trend estimate for southern bottlenose whales were -1.8% (95% CI -22.5, 19.0%), 10.4% (95% CI
3.0, 17.9%), 7.7% (95% CI 1.3, 14.2%) and 0.9% (95% CI -9.9, 11.7%) in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW,
respectively. The increasing trend in Areas IV and V were statistically significant.
Killer whales
Season1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08

Season1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09Abun.
12,195
15,447
9,606
9,812
12,303
13,055
13,821
18,867
7,185
9,044

Area V

Abundance trend estimate for killer whales were 11.2% (95% CI -10.4, 32.9%), -2.2% (95% CI -9.5, 5.2%), 1.1% (95% CI -4.9, 2.7%) and 3.8% (95% CI -12.1, 19.7%), in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VI, respectively, whichwere not statistically significant.

SC/F14/J7 used a mark-recapture method with paternity analysis based on microsatellite DNA data from the
JARPA and JARPAII samples of Antarctic minke whales to estimate their stock size and movement pattern.
Throughout the paternity analysis, genotypic data of maximum 12 microsatellite DNA loci examined from 137
fetuses that were collected from the pregnant females captured during the 2003/04 JARPA were used to look fortheir potential fathers among 1,779 males collected from the 2001/02 JARPA to 2010/11 JARPAII. One case ofmatching among the fetus-mother-father trio was found. The assigned father’s body length was 8.66m and theestimated age 12 years old. This matching was used to conduct preliminary estimate the mature male abundanceof the I stock using Petersen mark-recapture method modified by Chapman.
Biological parameters
SC/F14/J8 examined yearly trend of age at sexual maturity in the Antarctic minke whale based on Transition
Phase (TP) in earplugs collected by the JARPA (1987/88-2004/05) and the JARPAII (2005/06-2010/11).
Analysis was conducted for both sexes and for two stocks (I and P) separated at 165ºE. TP of the JARPA
samples were read by two readers (reader-K and reader-Z) and by a new reader (reader-B) in the case of the
JARPAII samples. Truncation bias was corrected by standard procedures. Yearly trend of mean age at sexual
maturity derived from two reader groups were consistent. The results confirmed that the age at sexual maturity ofboth stocks declined from the mid 1940s cohorts at around 10-12 years old to the early 1970s cohorts at around7-8 years old, presumably as response to improved nutritional conditions at that time. Age at sexual maturity
remained constant at 7-8 years old till the 1990s cohorts. Statistical analysis to investigate trend from the 1970s
cohorts showed slight but statistically significant increasing trend for the I stock (both sexes) and P stock(females). The level of current changes in response to deteriorated conditions is not the same as the decreasing
trend level observed from the 1940’s cohorts in response to improved nutritional conditions at that time.
SC/F14/J9 examined yearly trend of the proportion of pregnant whales in the matured female population (PPF)
of Antarctic minke whales based on samples collected by the JARPA (1987/88-2010/11) and the JARPAII(2005/06-2010/11) surveys. Linear and logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate yearly trend in
this biological parameter for I-stock and P-stock, separated at 165ºE. PPF has remained at a high level
throughout the period. No significant yearly trend was detected in either stock during the JARPAII period. A
significant increasing trend was observed in the JARPA and JARPA+JARPAII period analyses for the P stock by

25

the logistic regression analysis. The latter result was influenced by just two lower pregnancy values in the
1990/91 and 1994/95 seasons, respectively.
SC/F14/J10 presented new biological information of 16 Antarctic fin whales collected by JARPAII in the first
period (2005/06-2010/11). New information on body proportion, reproductive status, age/length relationship,
body length/body weight relationship as well ecological markers (external parasites), is presented. When possible,
comparison of these parameters with those of fin whales obtained in other period in the Antarctic was made. The
main results were that body weight of whales in the JARPAII period is heavier than those previously reported for
the Antarctic in the 1950’s. Further, results suggested the possibility that whales are reaching sexual maturity at
younger ages.
SC/F14/J11. During the JARPA final review workshop a recommendation was made that the comparability ofcommercial and JARPA age data be investigated by re-reading a sub-set of the commercial samples in an
appropriately designed blind test (recommendation Biological Parameter 2 in Annex 4). Based on the results ofthe studies responding the recommendation, the IWC SC agreed in 2010 that no further experiments or analyses
on age reading errors were needed to resolve ageing related problems raised at the JARPA review workshop(IWC, 2011). SC/F14/J11 presented a statistical method for quantifying age-reading error, i.e. the extent of bias
and inter-reader variability among readers, which use the data produced in the blind test. The method in
SC/F14/J11 assumes the availability of an independent control reader who produces reference ages for ageing
structures which are also read by the subject readers. This reader is assumed to provide unbiased age estimates.
Linear structures in bias and variance are incorporated in a conditional probability matrix representing thestochastic nature of age-determination for each reader. A joint likelihood function for the parameters related toageing bias, variance and nuisance parameters is defined based on observed ageing outcomes from both thecontrol and subject readers. The method is applied to data for Antarctic minke whales taken during Japanesecommercial whaling (1971/72-1985/86) and JARPA (1986/87-2004/05). A total of 250 earplugs selectedaccording to a predetermined protocol were used in the analyses to estimate the inter-reader variation for fourJapanese readers. One of the authors acted the control reader. The Japanese readers and the control reader
differed in terms of both the expected age given the true age, and variance in age-estimates. The expected age
and random uncertainty in age-estimates differed among the Japanese readers, although the two readers in chargeof age-reading for samples taken during JARPA and JARPA II provided quite similar ageing outcomes. These
results contribute to analyses using catch-at-age data for this species. It should also be noted that the model andapproach in this paper can be applied to populations other than the Antarctic minke whales, if a control reader isavailable, even retrospectively. An original version of this paper was presented to the IWC SC meeting in 2013
as Document SC/65a/IA04. After discussion, the IWC SC agreed that the approach and results of the study
provide useable inputs data for SCAA analysis (IWC, 2013 in press).
SC/F14/ForInfo1 presented the results of the application of a Statistical Catch-at-age Analysis (SCAA) to data
for Antarctic minke whales. The analysis addressed most of the previous recommendations from the JARPA
final review workshop in 2006 (see recommendations Biological Parameters 2-3 in Annex 4), as well subsequent
recommendations at the IWC SC meetings. The application to Antarctic minke whales considered two stocks (Iand P) in five areas which cover Antarctic Areas III-E to VI-W. The parameters of the model (annual deviations
about the stock-recruitment relationship, density-dependence parameters (productivity and carrying capacity),
and the parameters which determine growth by stock, age-specific natural mortality by stock, and vulnerability
by area and ‘fleet’) were estimated by fitting the model to data on catches, catch-at-length, conditional age-atlength, and estimates of absolute and relative abundance. A reference case analysis was selected and sensitivity
explored by varying the assumptions on which the reference case analysis is based. The reference case analysis
was able to mimic all of the data sources adequately. Most of the analyses (reference and sensitivity) indicatedthat Antarctic minke whales in the assessed area increased from 1930 until the mid-1970s and have declined
thereafter, with the extent of the decline greater for minke whales in Antarctic Areas III-E to V-W (I stock) thanfor those further east (P stock). Natural mortality was consistently estimated to be higher for younger and older
individuals. The estimates of MSYR1+ were 5.3% for minke whales in Antarctic Areas III-E to V-W and 3.6%
for minke whales in Areas V-E and VI-W, but these estimates were less well determined than other model
outputs, and quite sensitive to the assumptions on which the SCAA was based. This document was presented to
the IWC SC meeting as Document SC/65a/IA1.
SC/F14/J12 measured the eye lenses of 18 Antarctic minke whales and of 20 fetuses to examine the approach ofage estimation in Antarctic minke whales by ratio of aspartic acid enantiomers. In the age estimation equation,
the specific coefficient of hydrolysis effect in preparation and the constant conversion of aspartic enantiomers(Kasp) were estimated. The study found that the D/L ratio of aspartic acid in the lenses of minke whales had
increased by 0.0102 in the hydrolysis process (7 hr at 108°C), and estimated that the Kasp was 1.96×10-3

26

( /year) calculated from the earplug age and the age index with the D/L ratio of aspartic acid in minke whales.
Consequently, formulae Age (year) = 511×Ln ((1+D/L)/(1-D/L)) -13.2 was obtained.
Feeding ecology, energetic and habits
SC/F14/J13 showed the results of the annual trend in energy storage in sexually mature Antarctic minke whales
based on catch data from all 24 surveys of the JARPA and JARPAII. These analyses addressed most of theprevious recommendations from the JARPA final review workshop in 2006 (see recommendations Marine
Ecosystem 4-6 in Annex 4), as well as more recent recommendations from the IWC SC e.g. analyses included
survey trackline in random effects as recommended by IWC (2013c). Five variables which are, or could be,
indices of storage of energy, were examined: total fat weight in the whale body, blubber thickness at two lateralmeasurement points and girth measured at two specified positions. Three of these variables were available fromalmost all whales sampled, but girth at axilla was measured over 20 years and fat weight was only measured over
17 years of the JARPA programme, and only for the first whale sampled on each day. A number of covariates
were also recorded. A large number of linear mixed-effects statistical models were investigated for each of thedependent variables, and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to select the best model. All models
examined had ‘year’ as a possible explanatory variable. The results show that all five measures of energy storage
declined substantially over time during the JARPA period, with a more than 10% decline in total fat weight. For
all five dependent variables the values for energy stores are higher for females than for males. The values
increase during the feeding season and are higher for higher body coverage of diatoms. This is assumed to be ameasure of how long the animal has spent in Antarctic waters. The results are similar when each sex is analysed
separately, but the decrease in energy stores was somewhat larger in females than in males. The results from the
JARPAII period were very different from the JARPA period. There is no clear trend towards increase, or further
decrease, in any of the four measures of energy storage. The results suggest that fundamental changes have takenplace in the eastern part of the Antarctic marine ecosystem during the 1990’s. These changes have resulted inless optimal feeding conditions for Antarctic minke whales.
SC/F14/J14 reported the results of an analysis of temporal trend in stomach content weight in the Antarctic
minke whale, one of the major krill predators in Antarctic waters. These analyses addressed most of the previous
recommendations from the JARPA final review workshop in 2006 (see recommendation Marine Ecosystem 3 inAnnex 4), as well as more recent recommendations from the IWC SC e.g. analyses are now based on survey
transects as recommended by IWC (2013c). A reported decline in energy storage over almost two decades
indicates that food availability for the whales may also have declined until recently. To test this hypothesis, catch
data from 21 survey years in the JARPA and JARPAII (1990/91-2010/11) was used to investigate whether there
was any annual trend in the stomach contents of Antarctic minke whales. Linear mixed-effects analysis showed adecreasing trend in the weight of stomach contents over the 21 years since 1990/1991, which was statisticallysignificant. A similar pattern of decrease was found in both males and females, except in the case of females
sampled at higher latitude in the Ross Sea. These results suggest a decrease in the availability of krill for
Antarctic minke whales in the lower latitudinal range of the research area. The results are consistent with thepreviously reported decline in energy storage (SC/F14/J13). The decrease in krill availability could be due toenvironmental changes or to an increase in the abundance of other krill-feeding predators. The latter appears
more likely, given the recent rapid recovery of the humpback whale. Furthermore, humpback whales are notfound in the Ross Sea, where both Antarctic krill and ice krill are available, and where no change in preyavailability has been suggested for Antarctic minke whales.
SC/F14/J15 investigated the feeding habits of Antarctic minke whales based on samples obtained during thesurveys of the JARPA and JARPAII for the period 1987/88-2010/11. Some of the analyses considered
recommendations offered during the 2006 JARPA final review meeting e.g. those related to the duration of thefeeding period, digestion rate and examination at smaller scales. The Antarctic minke whales fed mostly on
Antarctic krill in offshore area, and on ice krill in coastal (shallow) area on the continental shelf of the Ross Sea
and Prydz Bay. The whales fed mainly before 5AM suggesting that feeding activity decreases early in the day.
The daily prey consumption was estimated using two independent methods, one based on theoretical energy
requirements and the other on diurnal changes of stomach contents mass. The daily prey consumptions per capita
during the feeding season based on the two methods were 95.1–127.0 and 182.6–250.3kg for immature andmature males, and 125.8–138.7 and 268.1–325.5kg for immature and mature females, respectively. This isequivalent to 2.65-4.02% of the body weight. The daily prey consumption per capita decreased between the
JARPA and JARPAII periods based on the results of the method on diurnal change in stomach content mass, forall sexual classes. The seasonal prey consumption by all Antarctic minke whales in the research area was 3.513.98 million tons, and this figure was equivalent to 7.6-8.6% of the krill biomass estimated by acoustic survey inthe total research area.

27

SC/F14/J16 examined the feeding habits of fin whales sampled during the surveys of the JARPAII for the period
2005/06-2010/11 (n=16). The fin whales fed mostly on Antarctic krill in the research area. The daily prey
consumptions of fin whales per capita estimated by three methods ranged from 276 to 2,136kg. These values
were equivalent to 0.50 and 3.84% of the body weight. The seasonal prey consumptions for all fin whales in the
total research area based on three methods were 0.54-0.78million tons, 3.38-4.51million tons and 2.19-2.93
million tons, respectively. There was coincidence in the frequency of body length of the E. superba consumed by
fin and Antarctic minke whales (B. bonaerensis). It seems that fin and Antarctic minke whales have similar
feeding habits with no prey size selectivity.
SC/F14/J17 examined the distribution pattern of the Density Index (DIW: number of whales sighted / 100
n.miles) of blue, fin, sei, Antarctic minke, humpback, southern right, sperm, southern bottlenose, Ziphiidae andkiller whales in the Antarctic based on the JARPA (1987/88-2004/05) and JARPA II (2005/06-2008/09) sighting
data. A total of 353,134 n.miles was surveyed in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW, mainly south of 60 oS. The
following table summarizes the sighting information.
SpeciesAll Areas (IIIE, IV, V and VIW; south of 60S, 35E-145W)

Order of

Sch.

Ind.

Calf

Mss

DIS

DIW

DIW

Blue whale

286

495

11

1.73

0.081

0.140

8

Fin whale

1,268

5,209

20

4.11

0.359

1.475

5

Sei whale

36

59

0

1.64

0.010

0.017

10

Antarctic minek whale

25,507

69,076

1

2.71

7.223

19.561

1

Humpback whale

10,036

18,770

137

1.87

2.842

5.315

3

Southern right whale

235

298

6

1.27

0.067

0.084

9

Sperm whale

3,810

3,926

0

1.03

1.079

1.112

6

Southern bottlenosed whale

1,666

3,045

3

1.83

0.472

0.862

7

Unid beaked whale

3,175

5,457

3

1.72

0.899

1.545

4

Killer whale

1,472

20,569

59

13.97

0.417

5.825

2

Among 10 whale species, Antarctic minke whales were the most frequently sighted species, followed by thekiller, humpback, unidentified beaked, fin, sperm, southern bottlenose, blue, southern right and sei whales in the
DIW order. Maps of the DIW by 1ºX 1º square are provided.
SC/F14/J18 examined changes in spatial distribution of Antarctic minke whales and humpback whales in Area
IV during the period of the JARPA and the JARPAII. To elucidate temporal changes of their spatial distribution,
data obtained in the JARPA-JARPAII were divided into three periods: early (1989/1990, 1991/1992 and1993/1994), middle (1995/1996, 1997/1998 and 1999/2000) and late (2001/2002, 2003/2004 and 2005/2006).
Spatial distribution was estimated using generalized additive models (GAM). Presence or absence of whales wasused as the response variable while seafloor depth, distance from shelf break and longitude were used as
explanatory variables. Mean probabilities of occurrence of Antarctic minke whales in the survey area in early,
middle and late periods were 0.41, 0.46 and 0.41 while those of humpback whales were 0.14, 0.35 and 0.46.
Occupied area indices (probabilities of occurrence of Antarctic minke whales minus probabilities of occurrenceof humpback whales) were also calculated. If the index is 1, only Antarctic minke whales were presented in agrid cell while only humpback whales were presented if the index is -1. If the index is 0, probabilities ofpresence of Antarctic minke whales and humpback whales in a grid cell were identical. Mean occupied area
indices in early, middle and late periods were 0.28, 0.11 and -0.07, respectively. It was concluded that the spatial
distribution of humpback whales expanded during the period of the JARPA and the JARPAII while that of
Antarctic minke whales remained stable. The results indicated that competition between humpback and Antarctic
minke whales for habitat in Area IV during the period of the JARPA and the JARPAII was intensified asabundance of humpback whales increased.
SC/F14/J19 presented results of krill biomass estimations based on quantitative echo sounder data. Estimations
were made based on data obtained in Areas IIIE/IV in the 2007/08 JARPAII survey and in Areas V/VIW in the
2008/09 JARPAII survey. The biomass estimates obtained in Areas IIIE and IV were 6.6 and 12.5 million tons,
respectively while those in Areas V and VIW were 24.0 and 3.4 million tons, respectively. The information on
krill biomass for Area IV was used as input parameters in the ecosystem modelling work.
SC/F14/J20 analyzed oceanographic observation data obtained by the JARPA and the JARPAII to clarify
physical oceanographic conditions in the JARPA/JARPAII area as a basis for understanding the habitat
environment of whales. About 2,500 profiles were obtained by XBT, XCTD and CTD observations from 1990 to28

2009. Obtained profile data were converted to the same format and utilized to describe the oceanographic featureof the JARPA/JARPAII area. Based on this data set the averaged feature of the oceanographic structure in the
research area for two decades was described. The Southern Boundary (SB) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC), which is detected by a 0ºC temperature contour line on the 27.6 isopycnal surface, characterized theresearch area. It is evident that the position of the SB is controlled by major features of bottom topography suchas the Kerguelen Plateau and the Pacific-Antarctic ridge. In the area east of the Kerguelen Plateau, the positionof SB changes on a decadal timescale. The southward shift of SB in the region is observed in the early 2000’s,
and a northward shift is observed in the later 2000’s. Although the global warming is an important factor for theSouthern Ocean, unlike the Antarctic Peninsula region, the JARPA and JARPA II temperature data shows nostatistically significant warming in the JARPA/JARPAII research area for the two decades.
SC/F14/J21 examined several pieces of information such as a) Kerguelen-Davis Oscillation Index (KDOI); b)
the extent of sea ice; c) abundance estimates of humpback and Antarctic minke whales in Area IV from the
1989/90 to 2007/08 seasons collected by the JARPA and the JARPAII; and d) zonal average of Southern
Boundary of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SB) in the Indian Ocean sector. Time-series of these data showedtrends and relations as follows: First, KDOI indicated (1) the effective data of Kerguelen had a limited number ofyears since 2006 while the Davis’s data had 56 years since 1957. Therefore, the analytical period of KDOI was
limited to seven and half years at this stage; (2) KDOI during 2006 and 2013 showed the variability of an upward
trend with approximately 2-year periodicity. Second, sea ice extent in austral summer from 1979 to 2011 showed
an upward trend with yearly variability suggesting some relationship with KDOI. In addition, the lower
abundance estimate of Antarctic minke whale coincided with the larger sea ice extent such as 1997/98 and2007/08, probably due to navigational limited surveys caused by sea ice. Third, the rapid southward shift of SB
coincided with a rapid increase of humpback whales such as in 1995/96 and 2001/02, probably due to Antarctic
Circumpolar Water southward shift.
SC/F14/J22 summarized the information on marine debris collected during the surveys of the JARPA and
JARPAII for the period 1987/88 to 2010/11. Three kinds of observations were considered: marine debris on thesea surface, marine debris in the stomachs of whales caught (Antarctic minke, dwarf minke and fin whales), andentanglements. In the Antarctic research area (south of 60ºS), marine debris included metals (drum, can),petrochemical products (buoy, ball, bottle, container, fender, net, rope, styrofoma). Buoys were the mostabundant debris (69% of all marine debris recorded). The highest density index (DI: number of marine debris
observed per 100 nautical miles) was recorded in Area V (DI: 0.15), followed by Area IV (DI: 0.12). DI of buoys
in Area IV and V suddenly increased after the 2005/06 austral summer season. The increase of buoy debris
coincides with an increase of longline fishery operations in this area. The stomachs of a total of 10,041 Antarctic
minke whales, 16 dwarf minke whales and 16 fin whales were examined for debris. A total of 70 marine debris
and objects other than prey were found in the stomachs of the three species, including feather, stone, wood,
plastic and others. The number of occurrence of marine debris and objects other than prey in the fore and main
stomachs per 100 Antarctic minke whales examined was estimated at 0.35. Four cases of entanglement in a totalof 10,041 Antarctic minke whales examined were found. Those involved fishing hook, monofilament fishing line,
rope and packing band. Given the low indices, the effect of marine debris on whales in the Antarctic is expected
to be limited at the present time. This study provided the first comprehensive observations of marine debris onsea surface, inside the stomachs of whales, and in entanglements of whales in the Antarctic.
Pollutants
SC/F14/J23 measured total Hg levels in samples from Antarctic krill, and Antarctic minke whales to examine thefeatures of accumulation and yearly changes of total Hg in Antarctic Areas IV and V. Total Hg levels in
Antarctic krill from Areas IV and V were in the range 0.006-0.026 and 0.003-0.052 ppm dry wt., respectively.
There were no significant differences between Areas. No yearly changes of total Hg levels in Antarctic krill wereobserved in samples from both Areas in the period from 2005 to 2011. Hg levels in liver of Antarctic minke
whales from Areas IV and V were in the range 0.003-0.13 and <0.001-0.25 ppm wet wt., respectively. Hepatic
Hg levels of minke whales of all age groups in Area IV decreased significantly with research years and that of
15-26 year old whales in Area V increased significantly.
SC/F14/J24 determined the concentrations of persistent organochlorins in the blubber of 5 mature male (21-25
years old) Antarctic minke whales from Antarctic Area V sampled by the JARPAII in 2010/11. For comparison,blubber from 40 whales sampled by the JARPA surveys in the period from 1988/1989 to 2004/2005, were used.
In 2010/11 mean concentrations of HCB (140 ng/g fat wt.) were the highest followed by DDTs (100 ng/g fat wt.),
PCBs (28 ng/g fat wt.), CHLs (25 ng/g fat wt.), and HCHs (0.8 ng/g fat wt.). Levels of DDTs, HCHs, HCB and
CHLs in Area V decreased significantly with year, while the yearly trend of PCBs did not change significantly.

29

HCHs levels in minke whales in 2010/2011 were similar to those in the JARPA period from 1996/1997 to
2004/2005 however they were lower than those in the JARPA period from 1988/89 to 1996/1997. These results
suggested that levels of HCHs in the Antarctic Ocean have varied from slightly decreasing to a steady state in the
middle 1990’s.
SC/F14/J25 determined total mercury (Hg) in 10 livers and 16 muscles of fin whales sampled by the JARPAII in
2005/2006-2010/2011. In addition PCBs, DDTs, HCHs, HCB and CHLs were determined in two blubbersamples of fin whales sampled in 2010/2011. Mean concentrations of total Hg in livers and muscles were 0.052
and 0.021 (ppm wet wt.), respectively. Mean concentrations of PCBs, DDTs, HCHs, HCB and CHLs were 6.5,
13, 0.65, 39 and 4.5 (ng/g fat wt.), respectively. Hg levels in liver and muscle of fin and Antarctic minke whales
from the Antarctic Ocean were similar, and these were one order of magnitude lower than those of fin whales
from the western North Atlantic Ocean. Geographical differences of Hg levels within a species could be causedby food habitat and/or age. Levels of OCs, except for HCB, in fin whales from the Antarctic Ocean were similar
to those in the Antarctic minke whales. These levels were extremely lower than those in fin whales from the
middle latitude of the northern hemisphere nearby human activity, and those in killer whales from the Antarctic
Ocean. These results suggest that the OCs levels in whales could mainly be affected by position of food in thefood chain and area. OCs levels in fin and Antarctic minke whales in the Antarctic Ocean could be the lowest
among whale species in the world. HCB levels in large whales would be affected by trophic levels of its preysrather than by spatial differences.
Ecosystem modeling
SC/F14/J26 showed the progress made in the development of ecosystem modelling for species in Area
IV. Two types of modelling approaches were employed; one is a multi-species production model, andthe other is the EwE, a comprehensive (whole-of-ecosystem) model. There are differences in thecomponent species between them, but the baleen whales and krill play key roles in both. For thestatistical estimation in the multi-species production model, a functional response function was proposed
to link the dynamics of predators (four baleen whale species and crabeater seal) and prey (Antarctic
krill) to both between and within-species competitions. The model was applied to the data on time seriesof the four baleen whale species, crabeater seal and krill, and then a likelihood function was defined
based on the data with some additional assumptions on inestimable parameters. However, at this stage
the estimated population trends for the component species did not fit well to the data, which might be
attributed partly to lack of spatial structure in the model and partly to lack of representativeness ofassumed parameters and information on prey abundance. For the EwE approach, the construction of amass-balancing for Ecopath for 27 functional groups was attempted, which could be the basis for the
next stage of analysis for projection forward using the Ecosim framework. Several suggestions weremade to progress the modelling work.
Stock structure and RMP
SC/F14/J27 presents a summary of the genetic sampling and DNA laboratory protocols of the Institute of
Cetacean Research used in the analyses on population genetic structure of baleen whale species under the
Objective 3 of the JARPAII. In general the protocols follow the IWC SC guidelines for DNA data quality control
for genetic studies relevant to IWC management advice (IWC, 2009b).
SC/F14/J28. Previous JARPA analyses based on mtDNA RFLP, microsatellite DNA and morphometrics
suggested significant differences between whales in the most eastern and western sectors of the research area,and less differentiation in the central sectors. Those results were consistent with the occurrence of at least two
stocks and an area of mixing in the central sectors (VW). The areal and temporal pattern of stocks mixing, which
is one of the objectives of the JARPAII, is studied in detail in a separate document (SC/F14/J29). SC/F14/J28
used genetic samples from the JARPAII to test the hypothesis on stock structure derived from JARPA researchby employing two genetic markers: mtDNA control region sequences and microsatellite DNA. The statisticalanalysis followed a step-wise fashion: first Areas IIIE, IVW and IVE were compared in individual surveys in thewestern sector of the research area, and Areas VE and VIW were compared in individual surveys in the easternpart of the research area. Next the yearly variation in the western and eastern sectors was investigated. Finally acomparison between western and eastern sectors of the research area was conducted. This was done for females,
males and both sexes combined. A total of 2,278 mtDNA sequences were used in the analysis. Significant
statistical genetic differences were found between whales from the western and eastern sectors. The
microsatellite DNA analysis used samples from 2,553 individuals, which were analyzed using 12 microsatellite
loci. The test results showed that the genetic differences within the western and eastern sectors were temporalrather than spatial. When all of the samples were combined into two separate samples, western and eastern, the30genetic difference between sectors was clearer in females than in males as similar to the previous study. Despite
the increase of the number of the markers, the level of the stock differentiation was still too low to conduct
genetic analysis at the individual level (FST less than 0.001). The latter microsatellite analyses responded to someof the recommendations on stock structure offered during the 2006 JARPA final review workshop (seerecommendations Stock Structure 2 and 4 in Annex 4). These results based on the JARPAII samples and two
genetic markers, were consistent with the previous hypothesis of at least two stocks in the JARPAII researcharea, which are called I stock (Eastern Indian Ocean) in the western sector of the research area, and P stock(Western South Pacific) in the eastern sector. However substantial yearly variation was found by the
microsatellite analysis, mainly within the I stock.
SC/F14/J29 used an integrated approach for estimating longitudinal segregation of two stocks using different
sources of information, genetic and morphometric data. This study was in response to a recommendation madeduring the JARPA final review workshop (see recommendation Stock Structure 5 in Annex 4). The model was
originally presented to the IWC SC in 2012 using the JARPA data (Kitakado et al., 2012). The IWC SC ‘notedthat the approach used is simple and potential powerful. Aside from the general relevance of the results tounderstanding Antarctic minke whale dynamics, it might in the future prove useful in allocating historicalcatches to stocks…’ (IWC, 2013b). This time the model was applied to the JARPA and JARPAII data collected
between 1989/90 and 2010/11 in Areas IIIE-VIW. A soft boundary was allowed to vary by year and sex althoughbaseline stocks are assumed. A joint likelihood function derived from the two sources is defined for theestimation of mixing proportions. The mixing proportion was modeled by a linear logistic model with stockspecific parameters for the two sets of data. The genetic and morphometric data in the western areas (Areas IIIE
and IVW) and the eastern areas (Areas VE and VIW) were used only for estimating parameters for the two
putative stocks, I-stock and P-stock, respectively. It was observed that the morphometric data shown dominatedinformation compared to the genetic data and it helped convergence in the optimization. However, the inclusionof the morphometric data altered the estimation results and tended to give softer boundaries. On the whole, theresult indicated that the spatial distribution of the two populations has a soft boundary in Area IVE and VW,
which depends on the year. It also suggested possible sex differences along the boundary.
The IWC SC has proposed seven breeding stocks of the southern humpback whale. Figure 13 shows the locationof these stocks and their hypothetical migratory routes and feeding grounds.

Figure 13. Seven breeding stocks of southern humpback whale according to the IWC SC.
SC/F14/J30 analyzed genetic samples from 575 humpback whales obtained in the Antarctic during surveys of the
JARPA/JARPA II and the IDCR/SOWER, and from 1,057 whales from low latitude localities of the South
Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean to describe the distribution and mixing of breeding stocks in the Antarctic
feeding grounds. This study was conducted to respond to a recommendation from the JARPA review workshop(see recommendation Stock Structure 8 in Annex 4) and to recommendations from the IWC SC in 2012 (IWC,
2013d) to study distribution and calculate mixing proportions of breeding stocks D, E and F in the feeding
grounds. Such information is important to interpret abundance estimates as well to allocate historical catches tostocks. Genetic samples of both data sets were examined for approximately the first half of the mtDNA control
region. This study was one of the few that involved samples from both low latitude and Antarctic areas. The
genetic characteristiscs of whales from low latitudes can be used as representative of ‘pure’ stocks. The genetic‘signal’ of ‘pure’ stocks is used to examine distribution and mixing in the Antarctic. Genetic pattern of variation

31

based on mtDNA was consistent with the geographical locations of breeding and feeding grounds of Stocks D, E
and F. Western Australia whales (D) are strongly related to Area IV, Eastern Australia whales (E1) are related toArea VW and whales from New Caledonia (E2) and Tonga (E3) are related to feeding grounds east of 160ºE.
Whales from Cook Island (F1) and French Polynesia (F2) are not related genetically to whales in the feeding
grounds covered by the JARPAII surveys. This paper was presented and discussed at the IWC SC in 2013 asDocument SC/65a/SH13.
SC/F14/J31 analyzed biopsy samples from humpback whales obtained during surveys of the JARPA and
JARPAII up to the 2010/11 season as well as the International Decade for Cetacean Research/Southern Ocean
Whale and Ecosystem Research (IDCR/SOWER) using microsatellite DNA loci in order to describe their stock
structure in the Antarctic feeding ground. A total of 581 individuals obtained from Areas III to VI were
genotyped at 14 loci (only six loci were used in a previous study submitted to the JARPA review workshop).
After excluding duplicates and calves these individuals were divided into four groups based on the IWC
management areas: III (n=93), IV (n=218), V (n=153) and VI (n=64). Heterogeneity tests were conducted forfemales, males, and both sexes combined. Although a few cases of small temporal genetic differences weredetected within the areas, major genetic differences were among the samples from the different Areas. As similar
to the previous report, stronger differentiation was seen in females than in males. Despite the increase of thenumber of loci, the level of the stock differentiation (FST less than 0.001) was still too low to conduct genetic
analysis at the individual level. The microsatellite study confirmed that humpback whales from different stocks
occupied the Areas with higher differentiation in females than in males.
SC/F14/J32 examined stock structure of Antarctic fin whales based on biopsies and research take during the
JARPA and the JARPAII, and two genetic markers, mtDNA control region sequencing and microsatellite DNA.
Genetic samples were available from Area IIIE (n=6), IV (n=23), V (n=24) and VIW (n=2). Results of the
mtDNA heterogeneity test showed statistically significant differences among whales in Areas IIIE, IV and V.
The microsatellite analysis showed statistically significant differences in allele frequencies of 16 loci amongwhales from Areas IV and V. Results of the genetic analyses suggested the possibility of genetic structuring of
fin whales in the JARPAII research area, which should be further explored with the analyses of large number ofsamples in the future.
SC/F14/J33 analyzed biopsy samples from southern right whales obtained during the JARPA and JARPAII
surveys up to the 2009/10 season using both microsatellite DNA and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers inorder to describe genetic characteristics of the species in the Antarctic feeding ground. A total of 70 samples
obtained from Areas III to V was genotyped at 14 microsatellite DNA loci and were sequenced for 430 bp of the
mtDNA control region. In two cases of three duplicate sampling, the second samples were collected in a later
year (4 and 8 years, respectively) in the same Area IV, suggesting site fidelity to feeding ground. Paternity
analysis for a single calf-mother pair in the samples failed to detect a potential father. After exclusion of
duplicates and calves, 66 samples were used to estimate genetic indices. The levels of genetic diversity observed
from both markers were comparable to those reported from other southern right whale genetic studies. A total ofeight haplotypes was generated from 21 segregation sites and these haplotypes were phylogenetically separated
into two clades with the first and the second most frequent haplotypes belonging to the different clades. The
eight haplotypes observed in the study were then compared on the basis of variation at the segregation sites
within the 273bp consensus region to the 37 haplotypes reported in Patenaude et al. (2007) that were observed in
the samples obtained from the Indo-Atlantic (Argentina and South Africa) and the Indo-Pacific (Southern
Australia and New Zealand) basins. The comparison revealed that the two Antarctic clades were the same astheir A and W clades, seven of the eight Antarctic haplotypes matched their haplotypes, three of them were
found only in the Indo-Atlantic samples. The study suggested that some southern right whales migrate much
longer distances between their feeding and breeding grounds than thought previously and thus whales frommultiple stocks (probably including those other than the Southern Australia and New Zealand stocks) migrate toArea IV in the Antarctic.
SC/F14/J34 summarizes the information on photo-identification of blue, southern right and humpback whales
obtained by the JARPA/JARPAII surveys in Antarctic Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW during the austral summer
seasons. There is a total of 3,108 photo-id pictures in the photo-id catalogue administrated by the Institute of
Cetacean Research, which were selected from the total obtained in those Areas between 1989/90 and 2010/11.
All the pictures were digitized to facilitate archiving.

32Species
Blue whale
Southern right whale
Humpback whale
Total

JARPA
153
243
464
860

JARPAII
376
671
1,201
2,248

Total
529
914
1,665
3,108

Pictures of the blue whales from the JARPA have already been submitted to the IWC secretariat to facilitatecomparisons with other catalogues. Pictures of the humpback and southern right whales from the JARPA were
provided to the IWC’s Antarctic Humpback Whale Catalogue and to other international research organizations,
respectively, under co-operation studies. A preliminary examination of pictures within the feeding grounds andbetween the feeding grounds and lower latitude localities resulted in several matches. The photo-id data collectedby the JARPA and JARPAII have the potential to contribute to a better understanding of the pattern of
movement, distribution and abundance of blue, southern right and humpback whales, and in turn to theassessment and conservation of these three species.
OthersSC/F14/J35 used seven pregnant female Antarctic minke whales sampled by the JARPAII in the 2005/06 season
to compare the concentrations of various components of follicular fluids collected from follicles of different sizes
with a control that consisted of the components of umbilical serum. In the study vitrified and warned follicularoocytes derived from the three groups of follicles were also used for measurements of the diameters of the whole
oocyte, ooplasm and zona pellucida after removing the cumulus cells. Main results were the following: i) themean diameter of the oocytes from the large follicles was significantly greater than those from the small andmedium follicles; ii) the osmolarity of the follicular fluid from the small follicles was significantly lower thanthat of the medium follicles; iii) the concentrations of lactic acid of the follicular fluid from the three groups offollicles were significantly lower than that of the umbilical serum; iv) the progesterone concentrations were notsignificantly different among the fluid from the three groups of follicles and the umbilical serum. The results
offered new information concerning whale reproductive physiology, especially for improvement of in vitro
oocyte maturation and related technologies for whales.
SC/F14/J36 used heart samples of Antarctic minke whale collected during the 2005/06 JARPAII surveys for acomparative morphological study of the Purkinje fiber network in mammalian hearts. The morphologicalvarieties of the Purkinje fiber networks were studied by examining hearts of ungulates, primates, carnivores,
rodents and cetaceans including four Antarctic minke whales. Purkinje fibers in mammalian hearts are known tocomprise the following three groups depending on their structure: group I (ungulates), group II (human, monkeys
and dog) and group III (rodents). The study showed that morphologically, whales and seals respectively
belonged to Purkinje cells of group I and II. The findings indicated that the structural variety of the Purkinje
network may reflect the conducting function and be related to the phylogeny of the mammalian species.
SC/F14/J37 examined the structure and steroidogenesis of the placenta in the Antarctic minke whale. The study
was based on 58 placentas and 12 nonpregnant uteri collected from this species during the 2001/02, 2002/03 and2004/05 seasons of the JARPA as well during the 2005/06 JARPAII season. The Antarctic minke whale placenta
showed a fold-like shape as opposed to a finger-like shape. Many uterine glands were distributed in both nonpregnant and pregnant uteri. The uterine glands in the superficial layer of the pregnant endometrium had a wide
lumen and large epithelial cells as compared with those in the deep layer. On the other hand, in the nonpregnant
endometrium, the uterine glands had a narrower lumen and smaller epithelial cells than in the pregnant
endometrium.
SC/F14/J38 examined the possible effects of JARPAII annual take of 850 minke whales (425 males and 425
females) on the Eastern Indian Ocean stock (I-stock) and Western South Pacific stock (P-stock), respectively.
Standard Hitter methodology was used. Updated abundance information from IDCR/SOWER surveys and two
stock structure scenarios were considered. From the results of the Hitter runs, it was concluded that there would
be no negative effect on the Antarctic minke whale stocks of the future planned catches.

33

5. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS
Objective 1: Monitoring the Antarctic ecosystem

Abundance and distribution







The total abundance of Antarctic minke whales in Areas IIIE-VIW has been roughly stable during the
JARPA+JARPAII research period.
The abundance trend estimates of humpback whale Stocks D in Area IV (13.6% with 95% CI: 8.4%18.7%) and E in Area V (14.5% with 95% CI: 7.6%-21.5%) were similar, and they showed a significant
increasing trend during the JARPA+JARPAII period.
The abundance of blue whales in Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW combined showed a significant increasing
trend during the JARPA+JARPAII period (8.2% with 95% CI: 3.9%-12.5%).
The abundance of fin whales in Areas V and VIW combined showed a significant increasing trend
during the JARPA+JARPAII period (12.0% with 95% CI: 2.6%-21.5%). The increasing trend was notstatistically significant in Areas IIIE+IV.
The abundance of southern right whale in Area IV showed an increasing trend, which was notstatistically significant.
Spatial distribution of humpback whales in Area IV was expanded in the period 1989-2006 while the
distribution of Antarctic minke whales remained stable in the same period.

Biological parametersThe age at sexual maturity of Antarctic minke whale Stocks I and P has remained at between 7-8 years
old from the 70’s cohorts. It showed a slight but statistically significant increasing trend from the 70’s
cohorts.
The pregnancy rate of Antarctic minke whale Stocks I and P maintained a stable trend at a high level
during the JARPA+JARPAII period.
The recruitment rate of Antarctic minke whale Stocks I and P maintained a stable trend at a low level(in comparison with the level observed in the 60’s-70’s cohorts).
There is the possibility that fin whales are reaching sexual maturity at younger age as compared with theperiod of commercial whaling.

Feeding ecology/energetic










The blubber thickness of Antarctic minke whales showed a decreasing trend throughout the
JARPA+JARPAII period. When analyzed separately the trend was significant for the JARPA period but
not for the JARPAII period.
The stomach content weight of Antarctic minke whales showed a decreasing trend throughout the
JARPA+JARPAII period in offshore areas. No significant trend was found in the Ross Sea for females.
The daily prey consumptions of Antarctic minke whales per capita during the feeding season based on
two methods were 95.1–127.0 and 182.6–250.3kg for immature and mature male, and 125.8–138.7 and268.1–325.5kg for immature and mature female, respectively. These values are equivalent to 2.654.02% of the body weight.
The total prey consumption by Antarctic minke whales in the research area was estimated in 3.51 and3.98 million tons by each method, respectively. These values correspond to 7.6% and 8.6% of theestimated krill biomass in the research area.
The daily prey consumption per capita of Antarctic minke whales decreased between the JARPA and
JARPAII periods for all sexual classes, based on the results of diurnal change in stomach content mass.
The daily prey consumption of fin whales per capita during the feeding season based on three methods
ranged between 276 and 2,136kg. These values were equivalent to 0.50 and 3.84% of the body weight.
Antarctic minke and fin whales fed on krill of similar body size implying that fin whales and theAntarctic minke whales have similar feeding habit, and no prey size selectivity.
Body weight of fin whales in the JARPAII period is heavier than those previously reported for the
Antarctic in the 1950’s.

34Environmental surveys










Total Hg levels in krill sampled from the stomachs of Antarctic minke whales were similar between
Areas IV (0.006-0.026 ppm dry wt) and V (0.003-0.052), and no yearly trend was observed for theperiod 2005-2011.
Total Hg levels in liver of Antarctic minke whale in Areas IV and V were 0.003-0.130 ppm wet wt and<0.001-0.250, respectively. These levels are considerably lower than those in other ocean basins.
Hepatic Hg levels of all age groups of Antarctic minke whale in Area IV decreased significantly, andthe age group 15-26 years old in Area V increased significantly during the JARPA and JARPAII period.
Mean concentration of organochlorine in 21-25 years old minke whale in Area V in 2010/11 were HCB(140 ng/g fat wt.), DDTs (100 ng/g fat wt.), PCBs (28 ng/g fat wt.), CHLs (25 ng/g fat wt.), and HCHs
(0.8 ng/g fat wt.). Levels of DDTs, HCHs, HCB and CHLs in Area V decreased significantly with year,
while the yearly trend of PCBs did not change significantly. The levels of HCHs in the Antarctic Ocean
have varied from slightly decreasing to a steady state in the middle 1990’s.
Mean concentrations of total Hg in livers and muscles of fin whale were 0.052 and 0.021 (ppm wet wt.),
respectively. Mean concentrations of PCBs, DDTs, HCHs, HCB and CHLs were 6.5, 13, 0.65, 39 and
4.5 (ng/g fat wt.), respectively. Hg levels in liver and muscle were one order of magnitude lower thanthose of fin whales from the western North Atlantic Ocean. OCs levels were extremely lower than thosein fin whales from the middle latitude of the northern hemisphere, and than those in killer whales (toppredator) from the Antarctic Ocean.
The effect of the global warming was not detected in the research area.
Annual fluctuation on the locality of the southern boundary (SB) was observed in the research area
during the JARPA and JARPAII periods. Southward shift of the SB generally coincided with a rapid
increase of humpback whales in 1995/96 and 2001/02 suggesting that oceanographic conditions affectthe distribution of whales.

Objective 2: Modelling competition among whale species
Progress was made toward the development of two types of ecosystem models: multi-species
production model and Ecopath with Ecosim. Several additional data and analyses were identified toprogress further this work.

Objective 3: Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure
Antarctic minke whale






Results of additional genetics (mtDNA sequencing; microsatellite DNA) analyses based on the
JARPAII data were consistent with the previous stock structure hypothesis of at least two stocks in the
JARPAII research area, which occupy the most western and eastern part of the JARPAII research area,
respectively (I and P Stocks).
Genetic analyses based on microsatellite showed significant yearly changes mainly within the stock inthe most western side of the research area (I stock). In general, results of the new microsatellite analyses
suggested stronger fidelity to migration destination in females than in males.
The transition area where two stocks mix with each other is longitudinally wider than originallysuggested under the JARPA. The spatial distribution of the two stocks has a soft boundary in Areas IVE
and VW, which depends on the year.
There is possible sex differences along the soft boundary.

Humpback whale

Genetic pattern of variation based on mtDNA was consistent with the geographical locations ofbreeding and feeding grounds of Stocks D, E and F. Western Australia whales are strongly related toArea IV, Eastern Australia whales are related to Area VW and whales from New Caledonia and Tonga
are related with feeding grounds east of 160ºE. Whales from Cook Island and French Polynesia are notrelated genetically to whales in the feeding grounds covered by the JARPAII surveys.
Results of microsatellite analyses showed that Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW are occupied by different
stocks, which is consistent with the mtDNA results.

35

Fin whale

Results of mtDNA and microsatellite analyses suggested genetic structuring in the JARPAII researcharea..

Southern right whale

Genetic analyses based on microsatellites suggested site fidelity of whales to Area IV. Results of the
mtDNA analysis suggested longer distance feeding migration than previously thought, and thepossibility that different stocks migrate into Area IV in summer.

IWC management Areas

Results of the stock structure studies confirmed that the current Management Areas of the IWC are notsupported by biological evidence in the case of the Antarctic minke whale.
The IWC boundaries of the Areas III, IV, V and VI match better with the genetic results found for the
humpback and fin whales.
Southern right whales occur mainly in Area IV during the austral summer.

6. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS AND RELEVANCE FOR THE CONSERVATION AND
MANAGEMENT OF WHALES AND THE ECOSYSTEM
General

As explained in the introduction, the JARPA/JARPAII was developed to provide for a science-based
management program. Continuous collection of the whale samples and thorough analysis of biological
data provided useful information not only for sound and effective management of marine resources but
also understanding of biological and ecological processes of species involved in the Antarctic marine
ecosystem.



A combination of lethal and non-lethal surveys in the comprehensive large-scale JARPA/JARPAII
allowed us to acquire an unbiased, widely collected, large data base from all parts of ecosystem that was
not available from commercial catches.

The long term research projects provided us a great opportunity to systematically monitor long-term
natural variability of biotic and abiotic factors (changes in oceanographic conditions, in the abundanceof large whales, in biological parameters of predators, stock structure of whales, etc.) in the Antarctic
marine ecosystem.

In some cases of species competition, single-species models will clearly give wrong results. For
example a decrease in abundance caused by the competition will be misinterpreted by the current RMP
as over-exploitation, and the catches will be set unnecessarily low. This needs to be improved by the useof ecosystem models. However, no single ecosystem model can project the complex nature of themarine ecosystem. The greatest benefits are obtained from a combined use of different types of models.
The JARPAII thus developed two different types of the ecosystem models: Ecopath with Ecosim andmultispecies production model. The output from the ecosystem modeling study can assist in theformulation of effective ecosystem-based management policies in the future.



It is important to monitor environmental changes and the responses of whales to such changes
especially under the circumstances of progressing climate change. Whales are suited as biologicalindicators of environmental conditions because they are long-lived animals with ability of long-distancemigration. The JARPAII investigated pollutant levels of the sampled baleen whales in relation to their
sex and maturity. In addition, the JARPAII investigated the pollution levels in krill collected from thestomach contents of whales. The results from these direct examinations on the several different types ofsources provided us very important information to understand the bioaccumulation process through themarine food chain.

36

Ecosystem research
Results of the updated analyses on temporal trends of several biological and ecological parameters that included
JARPAII samples and data were used to update the ecological hypothesis explained in Section 3:
Krill surplus hypothesisThe surplus krill produced by the over-exploitation of large baleen whales such as the blue andhumpback whales in the 1930’s and 1940’s became available for other krill predators, such as the
Antarctic minke whale.

Krill surplus resulted in improved nutritional conditions for the Antarctic minke whale, which in turnresulted in some biological changes in the Antarctic minke whale. For example the age at sexual
maturity decreased between approximately the 1940’s and 1970’s cohorts, which meant that whales
were able to reproduce at younger ages.

This biological process favored an increase in the recruitment (and total abundance), from 1930 until themid 1970’s.

Situation since the 1970’s
The Antarctic minke whales reached the maximum carrying capacity by the 1970’s, and since then thestocks responded by stabilizing the age at sexual maturity at 7-8 years old (the decreasing trend was
halted).



A decline in the abundance of Antarctic minke whales was observed after the 1970’s, with the extent of
the decline greater for minke whales in the western part of the research area (I Stock) than for those in
the eastern part (P Stock).

High pregnancy rates of Antarctic minke whales were observed.

Situation since the 1980’s
The age at sexual maturity has been maintained at around 7-8 years old since the 1970’s cohorts. No
significant changes in the age at sexual maturity were observed in recent (1990’s) cohorts. A slight but
statistically significant increasing trend was observed after the 1970’s cohorts.



Recruitment, however, has not increased and has remained somewhat constant at a low level incomparison to the levels of the 1960’s-1970’s.

High pregnancy rates were observed.



Nutritional conditions have deteriorated for Antarctic minke whale as revealed by a decreasing trend inblubber thickness and stomach content weight for the JARPA and JARPAII periods combined.



Abundance of some large whale species such as blue, humpback and fin whales has been increasing.

Therefore in recent decades we have a situation in that whales are reproducing at high rates (young age at sexual
maturity and high pregnancy rates) but this is not reflected in the abundance as revealed by the constant trend in
total abundance, and constant trend at low level in recruitment. Therefore Antarctic minke whales are notresponding in the same manner as they responded in the 1940’s and 1960’s under the krill surplus hypothesis.
For example in the 1940’s and 1960’s, the age at sexual maturity decreased and the recruitment rate increased
substantially in response to better nutritional conditions. In recent years the age at sexual maturity has notincreased substantially as expected under the deteriorated nutritional conditions suggested by the declining trendof blubber thickness and stomach content weight, although the recruitment rate has remained constant at a low
level (in comparison with the level of the 1960’s and 1970’s).
There are three possible explanations for the apparent contradiction between age at sexual maturity andrecruitment rate trends in recent decades:

37

a)

Deteriorated nutritional conditions are affecting survival of juveniles.

Less krill is available for minke whales in recent years which resulted in deteriorated nutritional conditions assuggested by the decreasing trend in blubber thickness and stomach content weight since the 80’s. Given thissituation, weaker calves are born implying a higher mortality of juveniles. This explanation is consistent withlow age at sexual maturity (7-8 years old), high pregnancy rates, constant abundance and low recruitment rates(in comparison with the 1960’s-1970’s).
Less krill available for the Antarctic minke whale could be the result of i) competition with other krill predators,
particularly with recovering large whales such as blue and humpback whales, and/or ii) decrease in theabundance of krill because of global warming (e.g. Trivelpiece et al., 2011)
Option i) is favored as the results of the oceanographic surveys showed no signs of global warming in the
JARPAII research area. Furthermore abundance of some stocks of humpback, fin and blue whale in the researcharea are increasing significantly. Also GAM-based analysis showed a geographical expansion of the humpback
whales in Area IV while the distribution of the Antarctic minke whale remained stable. This result suggests
competition between humpback and Antarctic minke whales for habitat in Area IV as the abundance of
humpback whales increased.
Antarctic minke and fin whales fed on Antarctic krill in the same areas. The krill eaten by the two species is of asimilar size suggesting similar feeding habit, and no prey size selectivity.
b) Deteriorated environmental conditions are affecting survival of juveniles in mid and low latitude areas
The length at birth of the Antarctic minke whale is approximately 2.8m. The calves remain with their mothers
until they are approximately 4.5m in body length. On the other hand no mother and calf pairs are observed in the
Antarctic during the summer feeding season. Therefore calves separate from their mothers before arriving into
the Antarctic feeding grounds. Antarctic minke whales smaller than 5m in body length were rarely observed in
the JARPA and JARPAII research area. This information suggests that calf and juveniles spend most of theirtime in mid and lower latitude areas where the environmental conditions are more deteriorated than in the
Antarctic. Mortality of juveniles could be due to deteriorated environmental conditions in lower latitudes(contamination, overfishing, competition, etc.). This explanation is consistent with low age at sexual maturity
and constant and low (in comparison with the 1960’s-1970’s) recruitment rates.
c) Time lag
The apparent contradiction between low age at sexual maturity and low recruitment rates are due to a temporalphenomenon in that the response of age at sexual maturity to environmental changes may be subjected to timelags.
These results confirm that the Antarctic ecosystem is a dynamic one with important interaction among species
and between species and the physical environment. Under such circumstances future management of Antarctic
resources should be considered under a multi-species framework rather than one based on single species.
The development of an ecosystem model (Objective 2 of the JARPA II) is a first step toward the bigger goal ofmanaging the Antarctic marine living resources under a multi-species or ecosystem approach. Output from themodel will allow the prediction of future changes of the whale resource. Surplus production will be estimatedfrom abundance data for each species, so that appropriate management objectives can be considered through theuse of the model. The JARPAII has made progress toward the development of ecosystem models, which is thefirst step of the process (SC/F14/J26).
The JARPAII research plan had considered biological data from humpback and fin whales e.g. prey consumption,
for modeling competition among whale species (Government of Japan, 2005). Sampling of these two species in
addition to Antarctic minke whale in two Areas could provide an important opportunity to gain insight into the
dynamics of whale stocks and inter-species competition through comparative analysis. In Area IV, Antarctic
minke whales may decrease in response to competition, recovery of humpback whales may soon slow as they
approach their pristine level, and fin whales are increasing. By contrast in Area V, there is less evidence ofnegative impacts on Antarctic minke whales at present, humpback whales are at a relatively lower proportion of
their pristine abundance than in Area IV, and hence together with fin whales seems likely to continue to increase.
Thus the different comparisons possible across species and Areas provide potential insights into whale dynamics,
and consequently management actions for sustainable utilization (Government of Japan, 2005).

38

Research under the JARPAII confirmed that the abundance of some stocks of humpback, fin and blue whale in
the research area are increasing significantly. Also GAM-based analysis showed a geographical expansion of the
humpback whales in Area IV while the distribution of the Antarctic minke remained stable in the same Area andperiod.
Though the lethal data from humpback and fin whales are not used immediately in fits to the ecosystem models
being developed, monitoring qualitative changes in trends in demographic parameters through these lethal data
would provide a valuable method to check on the predictions from the ecosystem models.
Relevance of results for conservation and management
Antarctic minke whale
As noted above, Japan initiated the JARPA in order to resolve the scientific uncertainties related to theimplementation of the NMP on Antarctic minke whale, to contribute to the ‘comprehensive assessment’ (CA) ofthe effects of the moratorium on whale stocks prescribed by paragraph 10 (e) of the Schedule to the ICRW, andthereby pave the way for the resumption and management of commercial whaling in a sustainable manner. The
IWC SC carried out a CA of the Antarctic minke whale in 1990 (IWC, 1991), and subsequently it has continued
with the assessment of this species. Since the year 2000, the IWC SC has been carrying out an in-depth
assessment (IA) of the Antarctic minke whale, which is equivalent to the CA.
The JARPA and JARPAII contributed substantially with data and information to both the 1990 CA (IWC, 1991)
and subsequent IA (e.g. IWC, 2010, 2011, 2012a, 2013b), mainly providing information on stock structure andabundance and through biological data for the application of the SCAA on Antarctic minke whale. On the latter
point the JARPA biological data have been used by the IWC SC in its SCAA, which can account for the changes
in overall abundance in terms of variations over time in mortality and recruitment (e.g. Punt et al., 2013-ForInfo1). This provides an independent line of evidence. The JARPA II will continue contributing with these data forthis kind of analyses, which are important for assessment. Key information from the JARPA and JARPAII are
the individual age and abundance.
In summary the JARPA/JARPAII has contributed to the conservation and management of the Antarctic minke
whale by:








Providing new information on stock structure and mixing of Antarctic minke whale (SC/F14/J29),
which is essential for future RMP pre-implementation assessment of this species in the Antarctic. The
pre-implementation assessment requires plausible stock hypotheses. Previous RMP implementation for
the Antarctic minke whale considered small areas of 10º longitude. The JARPA/JARPAII research
provided a plausible stock structure hypothesis of at least two stocks in the JARPAII research area. The
research showed that the extent of the mixing area and the stock proportion of two stocks change byyear. This information is very important not only for the pre-implementation assessment but also for the
ISTs as well.
Providing refined information on some key biological parameters of Antarctic minke whale useful for
management under the RMP, e.g. MSYR, natural mortality (Punt et al., 2013-ForInfo1). The
demonstrated rapid rate of growth in the 1950s to 1970s shows that MSYR1+ cannot be as low as 1%(Punt et al., 2013-ForInfo1).
The use of more realistic estimate of MSYR from JARPAII will allow an optimization in the use of thewhale resource without risks to the stocks.
Providing new information on abundance and abundance trend in the Antarctic minke whale based onsighting survey data (SC/F14/J3). This is a essential information for the pre-implementation assessment
and ISTs. Stock structure information allows for a better interpretation of the abundance estimates.
Providing new information on abundance trend through the SCAA analyses (Punt et al., 2013-ForInfo1).

Humpback whale

The JARPA/JARPAII provided new information on stock structure in the feeding grounds of Areas
IIIE-VIW, which is important for the current IWC SC comprehensive assessment of Breeding Stocks D,
E and F (SC/F14/J30-31). In particular, information on stock structure will allow for a betterinterpretation of the abundance estimates and the allocation of historical catches to stocks.
The JARPA/JARPAII provided new information on abundance and abundance trend in the feeding
grounds of Areas IIIE-VIW, which is important for the current IWC SC comprehensive assessment of39

Breeding Stocks D, E and F (SC/F14/J4). Long-time series of sighting will provide information on therecovery of stocks in the Antarctic.
Fin whale

Genetic analyses based on the JARPA/JARPAII samples suggested the possibility of genetic structuringof this species in the feeding grounds of Areas III-VIW (SC/F14/J32). In particular the possibility that
Areas IV and V are occupied by different stocks has important implications for the interpretation of theabundance.
The JARPA/JARPAII provided new information on abundance and abundance trend in the feeding
grounds of Areas III-VIW, which is important for future IWC SC comprehensive assessment of thisspecies in the Antarctic (SC/F14/J5). Long-time series of sighting will provide information on therecovery of stocks in the Antarctic.

Southern right whale

The JARPA/JARPAII provided data for the first time examination of population genetic structure of thisspecies in the Antarctic feeding grounds, which is useful for the conservation of this depleted species.
Southern right whales seem to concentrate in summer mainly in Area IV. It is possible that Area IV
contains whales from different stocks, including some originating from distant breeding grounds(SC/F14/J33).
The JARPA/JARPAII provided abundance information of this species in the Antarctic feeding grounds(SC/F14/J5), which is useful for the conservation of this depleted species. Interpretation of theabundance estimate should take into consideration the fact that Area IV might contain whales fromdifferent stocks in summer.

7. FUTURE DIRECTION OF THE JARPAIIFirstly it should be noted here that the second period of the JARPAII (2011/12-2016/17) has already started
under the original research plan (Government of Japan, 2005).
As shown in Sections 4-6 above considerable progress has been made in the research conducted under the
JARPAII in the first period. For the analysis of temporal trends of biological and ecological parameters the
combination of the JARPA and the JARPAII was particularly useful because of the long period involved (22-24
years). However some issues remain unresolved and new questions have emerged. In this section the major
scientific considerations relevant on the future direction of JARPAII are presented.
a)Importance of multidisciplinary surveys

As explained in Annex 5, the JARPAII conducts different surveys (whale sampling, dedicated sighting and preyspecies surveys) in a comprehensive way to address the main objectives of the program: ecosystem monitoringand ecosystem modeling. In order to achieve this objective there is the need to maintain these multidisciplinary
surveys in the future.
b) Importance of continuing monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem
As explained in the introduction, monitoring is scientifically valuable as it provides time-series data on
biological and ecological phenomena in the environment. The JARPA/JARPAII detected changes in theabundance and in biological parameters of krill predators. This was possible because of a long and systematic
monitoring of biotic and abiotic parameters. It is important to continue the monitoring of environmental changes
and the responses of whales to such changes especially under the circumstances of progressing climate change.
The JARPAII has the potential to provide long time series data and therefore the potential for monitoring whales
and their environment.
c)Importance of continuing monitoring temporal changes in stock structure of large whales

The JARPAII research showed that the distribution and mixing proportion of Antarctic minke whale stocks
changes yearly. There is a possibility that such changes respond to yearly changes in krill availability andoceanographic conditions. Monitoring of changes in distribution and mixing rates of stocks are important in the40

context of the RMP Implementation. Continuing monitoring of oceanographical conditions and krill abundance
are important to elucidate the reasons for the change in distribution and mixing of whale stocks.
d) Further progress toward the development of ecosystem models
During the first attempt to develop ecosystem models (SC/F14/J26) several new analyses and data wereidentified to make further progress in this work. These should be implemented in the next step.
Research under the JARPAII confirmed that the abundance of some stocks of humpback, fin and blue whale in
the research area are increasing significantly. Also GAM-based analysis showed a geographical expansion of the
humpback whales in Area IV while the distribution of the Antarctic minke whale remained stable. This could
suggest a competition for habitat between the two species. These results emphasized the importance of further
development of the ecosystem modeling work.
e)Contribution to single-species and multi-species-based management

As explained in Section 6, data and results of the JARPA/JARPAII have contributed to both management under
the RMP (single-species management procedure) and started the work on ecosystem modeling, which could
assist in implementing a policy of multi-species-based management in the future. Future data collected by the
JARPAII will continue contributing to the management of living resources in the Antarctic.
f)Target species for the lethal component, sample size and research period

As explained in d) above Antarctic minke, fin and humpback whales are important target species for the lethal
component of the JARPAII, mainly for both long-term monitoring of biological and ecological parameters andecosystem modeling. These species should be listed for the next period of the JARPAII. Our intention is tomaintain the plan as original proposed.
8. SUMMARY RESPONSE TO TOR OF THE JARPAII REVIEW WORKSHOP AS SPECIFIED IN
ANNEX Pa.

Review the scientific work undertaken thus far against the stated objectives of the programme

A summary of the analyses conducted under the four research objectives of the JARPAII is given in Section 4.
Specifically information summarized in Documents J3-6 (abundance trends); J8-9, J11, ForInfo1, (biologicalparameters trends); J13-14 (body condition and stomach content weight trends); J17-18 (temporal change indistribution); J20-21 (temporal changes in oceanographic conditions); J23-24 (pollutant load trends), correspondto the progress made on Objective 1 of JARPAII (Ecosystem monitoring).
Information in Documents J15 (prey consumption of Antarctic minke whales), J19 (krill abundance) and J3-6
(abundance) were used as input parameters in the development of ecosystem models. Document J26 summarized
the progress made in the developing of ecosystem models. All those documents showed the progress made on
Objective 2 of JARPAII (Ecosystem modeling).
Information in Documents J28-29 (stock structure of Antarctic minke whale); J30-33 (stock structure of otherbaleen whale species) correspond to progress made on Objective 3 of JARPAII (Stock structure).
Information on natural mortality rate and MSYR of Antarctic minke whale in Documents ForInfo1, and on stock
structure of this species (Documents J28-29) correspond to progress made on Objective 4 of JARPAII.
b.

Review of other contributions to important research needs

As explained earlier the number of fin whales sampled was too low to allow analyses of temporal trends inbiological and ecological parameters in the JARPAII period. However Documents J10, J16, J25 and J32
provided new information on biological parameters, feeding habit, pollutants and stock structure of this species
in the Antarctic, which is important given the dated nature of the previous information.
New technical developments were presented in Documents J7 (estimation of abundance based on paternity test)
and J12 (age determination based on aspartic acid racemization).

41

Document J22 presented novel information on marine debris in Antarctic waters and in the stomach contents ofwhales.
Novel information on physiology and reproductive biology of Antarctic minke whale was presented inDocuments J35-37.
Finally a substantial set of photo-id material of humpback, blue and southern right whales was summarized inDocument J34. Some of this material has been already used by IWC SC members in different studies on
distribution and movements.
c.

Review the techniques used (lethal and non-lethal)

A comparison of the merit/demerit of lethal and non-lethal sampling is not among the objectives of the JARPAII
therefore no direct experiments comparing both techniques for particular research objectives were carried out.
The JARPAII involves both lethal and non-lethal techniques to study whales and their environment.
The utility of both kinds of techniques for particular research objectives should be examined in a wide context
e.g. a) is there a lethal or non-lethal technique available to collect the data for a particular research item?, b) if so,
can the technique collects samples in number large enough for statistical analyses?, and c) can the techniquecollects samples in a random manner, which is necessary for some of the analyses? Table 4 shows an evaluationof lethal and non-lethal techniques in the context of the three questions above for main research items used in
JARPAII.
Table 4. Evaluation of the utility of lethal and non-lethal techniques for some key research items of JARPAII.

Footnote 1 and 2. The age determination is based on earplug, which has proved to be a valid and useful tool forage determination in the Antarctic minke whale, and it is the only method providing age data accurate enough.
Biological parameter estimates require examination of reproductive tracts. The expert workshop to review resultsof the Icelandic research program agreed that ‘practicability’ of lethal techniques for age determination andestimate of biological parameters is ‘high’ in most of the cases (IWC, 2013e). Other methods based on DNA
telomere (and then potential use of biopsy) have been attempted for age determination but they are far frombeing reliable at this stage.
Footnotes 3 and 4. Some alternative non-lethal methods could reveal the kind of prey consumed by the whalebased on DNA analysis of feces. Other non-lethal methods investigate the diet composition through stable
isotopes and fatty acids in skin (biopsy). The Icelandic workshop concluded that the practicability of lethal
techniques to investigate the diet composition through stable isotopes in blood (scale of few days) is ‘high’ andthat to investigate diet composition through stable isotopes in skin (scale of up to 2-3 months) is high for bothlethal and non-lethal techniques (IWC, 2013e). The same workshop agreed that the ‘practicability’ of lethal
techniques to investigate the diet composition through stomach content analysis (most recent feeding) is ‘high’42

(IWC, 2013e). On this last point, a similar opinion was reached by the expert panel to review the whale research
program in the western North Pacific (IWC, 2009c). For the case of analysis of energetic through lipid mass
reserves, the Icelandic workshop concluded that the practicability of lethal techniques is ‘high’ and that of nonlethal techniques is ‘low’. It can be inferred therefore that the non-lethal techniques can not provide informationof diet composition of ‘recent feeding’. Non-lethal techniques can provide information on diet composition basedon stable isotopes in skin but the time scale is of ‘2-3 months’. On the other hand the difficulty in obtaining
biopsy samples from minke whales means that large and representative sample sizes cannot be obtained by suchtechniques.
Footnotes 5 and 6. DNA can be obtained from skin samples obtained by biopsy. Biopsy samples from theAntarctic minke whales have been obtained in limited number in some studies (e.g. Gales et al., 2013). Biopsy
sampling from Antarctic minke whales in this study was conducted on an opportunistic basis under conditions
that are not representative of typical surveys e.g. optimal weather conditions, large school sizes, near the packice. There is still a question of whether a large number of biopsy samples can be obtained from the Antarctic
minke whale in offshore waters where the sea condition are rough and the school sizes are smaller. A large
number of samples is required to study the yearly changes in distribution and mixing of Antarctic minke whale
stocks.
Footnotes 7 and 8. Movement of whales within the feeding grounds can be investigated through Discovery
marks. Recovery of marks depends on whaling operations. Discovery mark experiments were conducted throughtransect line during the IDCR sighting cruises in the past.
Footnotes 9 and 10. A limited number of Antarctic minke whales have been tagged using different types ofsatellite tags recently (e.g. Gales et al., 2013), providing information on movement, behavior and habit
preference. As with the biopsy sampling satellite tagging was conducted on an opportunistic basis underconditions that are not representative of typical surveys e.g. optimal weather conditions, large school sizes, near
the pack-ice. There is still a question of whether a large number of tagged whales can be obtained from theAntarctic minke whale in offshore waters where the sea condition are rough and the school sizes are smaller.
In the JARPAII the most appropriate technique (lethal or non-lethal) has been selected for the particular research
items. The best approach to address the JARPAII research objectives is the combined use of non-lethal (e.g.
sighting surveys, prey surveys, biopsy, etc.) and lethal (e.g. sampling of earplugs, reproductive organs, stomach
contents, etc.) techniques.
d.

Appropriate sample sizes

Details of the procedure for estimating sample sizes are given in the Appendices 4, 6, 7 and 8 of the original
JARPAII research plan (Government of Japan, 2005).
Sample sizes were estimated with the aim of monitoring yearly changes in some biological parametersconsidered as ‘indicators’ of changes in the ecosystem e.g. pregnancy rate, age at sexual maturity, blubber
thickness. The analytical procedure for estimating sample size considered three aspects, a) the level of statisticalaccuracy we are seeking, b) the extent (rate) of the biological changes that we wish to detect, and c) the period oftime within which we wish to detect those biological changes (see Annex 5). Regarding a) the 5% level ofaccuracy which is the norm employed by the IWC SC was chosen; regarding b) rate of change in different
biological parameters of Antarctic minke whale was obtained from observations in the 18-year long JARPA
research period, while those information in the case of humpback and fin whales was obtained from the period ofcommercial whaling; with regards to c) a period of six years was chosen in the case of Antarctic minke whale asestablished in the original research plan as the period for periodic review, which coincides with the RMP
Implementation review period (IWC, 2012d), and 12 years in the case of humpback and fin whales forprecautionary reasons. It should be added here that monitoring qualitative changes in trends in demographic
parameters through the lethal data for humpback and fin whales do not need results with as high precision as for
Antarctic minke whales.
The annual sample size of Antarctic minke whales was set at 850 animals +/- 10%. This figure obviously
represent a compromise between different parameters, chosen because it satisfies the statistical conditions formost of the research items, and because catches at that level will cause no harm to the stocks. The sample size of
humpback and fin whales was set at 50 animals.

43

For the reasons explained in Annex 6 the estimated sample size of 850 animals in the case of the Antarctic minke
whale could not be attained except for one season (2005/06). For the same reasons only 16 fin whales were
sampled in the six-year period. This should decrease the statistical power to detect significant temporal changes
in parameters in the six-year period.
In the case of the Antarctic minke whale the trend in three key parameters was estimated using the same method
as explained in the original research plan of the JARPAII, based on the number of samples/data obtained in the
period 2005/06-2010/11. SC/F14/J9 estimated the temporal trend of the apparent pregnancy rate during the
JARPAII period using the method proposed in the research plan e.g. linear regression analysis. No significant
trend was observed in this period. SC/F14/J8 examined temporal changes in the age at sexual maturity for recent
cohorts sampled during the JARPAII period. No significant trend was observed in this period, except in the caseof females of the P stock. However the precision of this estimate was considered low probably due to the small
sample sizes. SC/F14/J13 examined the temporal trend in blubber thickness for both the periods of the JARPA
and the JARPAII. The decreasing trend observed in the JARPA period was not observed during the JARPAII
period.
In general, no significant increasing or decreasing trends were detected in those parameters in the JARPAII
period. Two possible interpretations for those results are the following: a) there was no trend in the parameters in
the period investigated and b) the number of samples was too small to detect any significant trend in the six-year
period.
e.

Effects on any catches on the relevant stocks

The study conducted in SC/F14/J38, which considered updated information on abundance and stock structure of
the Antarctic minke whale concluded that there would be no negative effect on the stocks of the future JARPAII
catches.
f.

Relationship of the research results to relevant IWC resolutions and discussions

The following resolutions are potentially relevant to the JARPAII research.
Resolution recommending non-lethal research

Resolution 1995-9 (IWC, 1996a) recommended Contracting Governments to use non-lethal methods andinstructed the IWC SC to review Special Permit research. One of the main characteristics of the JARPAII is the
combination of both lethal and non-lethal surveys, which is important for achieving the main objectives of theresearch program. Some of the biological information from whales can be obtained only through the lethal
approach (see TOR ‘c’ above).


Resolutions encourage study of environmental change

Resolution 1994-13 (IWC, 1995) encouraged Contracting Governments and the Scientific Committee to study
environmental changes and impact on cetaceans. Resolution 1995-10 (IWC, 1996b) encouraged Contracting
Governments to study the effects of pollutants on cetaceans as recommended by the Bergen workshop.
Resolution 1997-7 (IWC, 1998b) encourages Contracting Governments to continue to provide information on
environmental changes and potential effects on cetaceans. Resolution 1999-4 (IWC, 1999) request Contracting
Governments to provide the IWC SC with data on contaminants in cetaceans.
As shown in Section 4.1, the JARPAII included a comprehensive monitoring and assessment of chemical
pollutants in whales and their preys. Therefore the JARPAII is investigating several of the topics mentioned inthose Resolutions.


Resolution on the establishment of SWG-E (Standing Working Group on Environmental Concerns)

Resolution 1998-7 (IWC, 1998c) invited the GOJ to take full advantage of the existing mechanisms forcooperation between national research programs and the SWG-E on environmental research in the Antarctic.
Japan accepted this invitation positively and will cooperate by providing the information on environmental
research obtained in the JARPAII (see Section 4.1).
Resolution on the interaction between whales and fish stocks

44

Resolution 2001-9 (IWC, 2001) acknowledges that a ‘better understanding of marine ecosystems, includinginteraction between whales and fish stocks, would contribute to the conservation and management of living
marine resources and is of interest to nations as well as to regional fisheries management organizations andinternational research organizations’. The JARPAII is in the process of contributing to the understanding of the
Antarctic marine ecosystem through the development of multi-species models (see Section 4.2). The output ofsuch models will be used as the basis for the implementation of management policies based on multi-species
approaches in the future.
9. CONCLUDING REMARKS
Results of the first period of the JARPAII confirmed the shift in the Antarctic ecosystem suggested first by thethe JARPA research. Notably the JARPAII research confirmed that several baleen whale species and stocks arerecovering from the past over-exploitation, and as a result, the whale species composition is changing in the
JARPAII research area. These species are increasing their abundance and expanding geographically, and thisprocess has effects in the whole ecosystem.
The JARPAII also confirmed that since the 1980’s, some ecological indices for the Antarctic minke whale havebeen changing e.g. several indicators of body conditions and stomach content weight have decreased, probably
because less food is available for Antarctic minke whales in recent years. Less krill availability for Antarctic
minke whale could be due to global warming which affect the krill biomass directly and/or the increase of otherkrill-eater, especially other whale species. Information derived from the JARPAII showed no evidence of global
warming in the research area and therefore the interaction with other whale species seems to be a more plausible
explanation for the change in krill availability for the Antarctic minke whale.
Despite the above-mentioned adverse environmental conditions, information derived from the JARPAII showedthat the Antarctic minke whale has maintained a high reproductive rate as indicated by its high pregnancy rateand decreased age at sexual maturity. On the other hand, recruitment has maintained a constant trend at a low
level in recent years compared with those in the 1960’s and 1970’s. Therefore one of the main outputs of the
JARPAII research is the suggestion that the Antarctic minke whale is not responding to the adverse
environmental conditions in the same way as it responded to improved environmental conditions in the middle ofthe last century. This has brought several new scientific questions that should be addressed with additional
research.
Apart from these ecological findings, the JARPAII provided a substantial amount of new information on stock
structure and abundance, which are useful for the assessment, management and conservation of several species
such as the blue, fin, humpback southern right and Antarctic minke whales in the context of the work of the IWC
SC.
These interesting and useful results and information could not be possible without a long-term, systematic andcomprehensive research programme like the JARPAII in the first period. Furthermore, such comprehensive
research could not be achieved without the combined use of lethal and non-lethal techniques as is the case of the
JARPAII.
The new scientific questions emerging from the results from the first period of the JARPAII can be properly
responded only with additional scientific information (samples and data) to be systematically collected by the
JARPAII in its following periods in the same way as carried out in the first period. It should be noted howeverthat Japan is ready to modify the JARPAII, if necessary, given full consideration to the discussions and outcomeof the JARPAII review workshop.

10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We thank T. Uoya and S. Hiruma (Fisheries Agency of Japan) for useful comments and suggestions on earlier
drafts of this document. T. Hakamada, T. Bando, T. Mogoe, T. Isoda and K. Nakai (Institute of Cetacean
Research) assisted in the preparation of some figures and tables, and checking the references. Finally we thankthe members of the domestic working group on SP review for valuable discussions and suggestions that notably
improved this document.

45

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Annex 1. List of documents for the IWC SC JARPAII Review Workshop
Primary documents
SC/F14/J1. Pastene, L.A., Fujise, Y. and Hatanaka, H. The Japanese Whale Research Program under Special
Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II): origin, objectives, research progress made in the period 2005/06-2010/2011,
and relevance for management and conservation of whales and the ecosystem.
SC/F14/J2. Nishiwaki, S., Ishikawa, H., Goto, M., Matsuoka, K. and Tamura, T. Review of general methodology
and survey procedure under the JARPA II.
SC/F14/J3. Hakamada, T. and Matsuoka, K. Estimates of abundance and abundance trend of the Antarctic minke
whale in Areas IIIE-VIW, south of 60ºS, based on JARPA and JARPAII sighting data (1989/90-2008/09).
SC/F14/J4. Hakamada, T. and Matsuoka, K. Estimates of abundance and abundance trend of the humpback
whale in Areas IIIE-VIW, south of 60ºS, based on JARPA and JARPAII sighting data (1989/90-2008/09).
SC/F14/J5. Matsuoka, K. and Hakamada, T. Estimates of abundance and abundance trend of the blue, fin andsouthern right whales in Areas IIIE-VIW, south of 60ºS, based on JARPA and JARPAII sighting data (1989/902008/09).
SC/F14/J6. Hakamada, T. and Matsuoka, K. Estimates of abundance and abundance trend of the sperm, southernbottlenose and killer whales in Areas IIIE-VIW, south of 60ºS, based on JARPA and JARPAII sighting data
(1989/90-2008/09).
SC/F14/J7. Kanda, N., Goto, M. and Pastene, L.A. Paternity analysis on Antarctic minke whales using JARPA
and JARPAII samples.
SC/F14/J8. Bando, T., Kishiro, T. and Kato, H. Yearly trend in the age at sexual maturity of Antarctic minke
whales examined by transition phase in earplugs collected during JARPA and JARPAII surveys.
SC/F14/J9. Bando, T. and Hakamada, T. Yearly trend in the proportion of pregnant animals among mature
female Antarctic minke whales in the JARPA and JARPAII period.
SC/F14/J10. Mogoe, T., Bando, T., Maeda, H., Kato, H. and Ohsumi, S. Biological observations of fin whales
sampled by JARPAII in the Antarctic.
SC/F14/J11. Kitakado, T., Lockyer, C. and Punt, A.E. A statistical model for quantifying age-reading errors andits application to the Antarctic minke whales.
SC/F14/J12. Yasunaga, G., Bando, T. and Fujise, Y. Preliminary estimation of the age of Antarctic minke whales
based on aspartic acid racemization.
SC/F14/J13. Konishi, K. and Walloe, L. Time trends in the energy storage in the Antarctic minke whales during
the JARPA and JARPAII research periods.
SC/F14/J14. Konishi, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Kitakado, T. and Walloe, L. Decrease in stomach contents
in the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern Ocean. (This paper can not be cited
except in the context of IWC meetings until is formally published in Polar Biology).
SC/F14/J15. Tamura, T. and Konishi, K. Prey composition and consumption rate by Antarctic minke whales
based on JARPA and JARPA II data.
SC/F14/J16. Tamura, T. Preliminary analyses on prey consumption by fin whales based on JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J17. Matsuoka, K. and Hakamada, T. Distribution pattern of whale species sighted in the Antarctic basedon JARPA and JARPAII sighting surveys (1987/88-2008/2009).

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SC/F14/J18. Murase, H., Matsuoka, K., Hakamada, T. and Kitakado, T. Preliminary analysis of changes inspatial distribution of Antarctic minke and humpback whales in Area IV during the period of JARPA and
JARPAII from 1989 to 2006.
SC/F14/J19. Wada, A. and Tamura, T. Estimation of krill biomass based on JARPAII acoustic surveys.
SC/F14/J20. Watanabe, T., Okazaki, M. and Matsuoka, K. Results of oceanographic analyses conducted under
JARPA and JARPAII and possible evidence of environmental changes.
SC/F14/J21. Naganobu, M., Matsuoka, K., Murase, H. and Kutsuwada, K. Consideration on the KerguelenDavis Oscillation Index (KDOI) influencing variability on environmental ecosystem in the Prydz Bay Region,
east Antarctic: data exploration.
SC/F14/J22. Isoda, T., Tamura, T., Nishiwaki, S and Pastene, L.A. Observation of marine debris in the Antarctic
based on JARPA and JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J23. Yasunaga, G., Bando, T. and Fujise, Y. Pattern of mercury accumulation in the Antarctic minke
whale and its prey based on JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J24. Yasunaga, G., Bando, T. and Fujise, Y. Pattern of organochlorine accumulation in the Antarctic
minke whale based on JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J25. Yasunaga, G. and Fujise, Y. A note on mercury and organochlorine accumulation in the Antarctic
fin whale based on JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J26. Kitakado, T., Murase, H., Tamura, T. and Yonezaki, S. An attempt to ecosystem modelling forspecies in Area IV in the Antarctic Ocean using JARPA and JARPAII data.
SC/F14/J27. Kanda, N., Goto, M., Oikawa, H. and Pastene, L.A. A note on sampling and laboratory procedure
protocols of the genetic work at the Institute of Cetacean Research.
SC/F14/J28. Pastene, L.A., Goto, M. and Kanda, N. An update of the genetic study on stock structure of the
Antarctic minke whale based on JARPAII samples.
SC/F14/J29. Kitakado, T., Schweder, T., Kanda, N., Pastene, L.A. and Walloe, L. Dynamic population
segregation by genetics and morphometrics in Antarctic minke whales.
SC/F14/J30. Pastene, L.A., Kitakado, T., Goto, M. and Kanda, N. Mixing rates of humpback whales from Stocks
D, E and F in the Antarctic feeding grounds based on mitochondrial DNA analyses (Doc. SC/65a/SH13. This
paper can be cited only in the context of the IWC meetings).
SC/F14/J31. Kanda, N., Goto, M. and Pastene, L.A. Stock structure of humpback whales in the Antarctic feeding
grounds as revealed by microsatellite DNA data.
SC/F14/J32. Goto, M., Kanda, N. and Pastene, L.A. Genetic analysis on stock structure of fin whales in the
Antarctic based on mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA.
SC/F14/J33. Kanda, N., Goto, M., Nishiwaki, S. and Pastene, L.A. Long-distance longitudinal migration ofsouthern right whales suspected from mtDNA and microsatellite DNA analysis on JARPA and JARPAII biopsy
samples.
SC/F14/J34. Matsuoka, K. and Pastene, L.A. Summary of photo-identification information of blue, southern
right and humpback whales collected by JARPA/JARPAII.
SC/F14/J35. Nagai, H., Mogoe, T., Ishikawa, H., Hochi, S., Ohsumi, S. and Fukui, Y. 2007. Follicle sizedependent changes in follicular fluid components and oocyte diameter in Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera
bonaerensis). Journal of Reproduction and Development 53(6): 1265-1272.

52

SC/F14/J36. Ono, N., Yamaguchi, T., Ishikawa, H., Arakawa, M., Takahashi, N. Saikawa, T. and Shimada, T.
2009. Morphological varieties of the Purkinje fiber network in mammalian hearts, as revealed by light andelectron microscopy. Arch Histol Cytol. 72(3), 139-149.
SC/F14/J37. Sasaki, M., Amano, Y., Hayakawa, D. Tsubota, T., Ishikawa, H., Mogoe, T., Ohsumi, S., Tetsuka,M., Miyamoto, A., Fukui, Y., Budipitojo, T. and Kitamura, N. Structure and steroidogenesis of the placenta in
the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis). Journal of Reproduction and Development 59 (2):159167.
SC/F14/J38. Hakamada, T. An examination on the effect on the stocks of JARPAII catches.
For information documents
1. Punt, A.E., Bando, T., Hakamada, T. and Kishiro, T. 2013. Assessment of Antarctic minke whales using
Statistical Catch-at-age Analysis. Paper SC/65a/IA01 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, June2013 (unpublished). 48pp.
2. Konishi, K., Tamura, T., Zenitani, R., Bando, T., Kato, H. and Walloe, L 2008. Decline in energy storage in
the Antarctic minke whale Balaenoptera bonaerensis in Southern Ocean. Polar Biol. 31: 1509-1520.
3. Matsuoka, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Murase, H. and Nishiwaki, S. 2011. Abundance estimates andtrends for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Antarctic Areas IV and V based on JARPA
sightings data. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Special Issue 3): 575-94.
4. Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T. in press. Abundance estimates and trends for
Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V based on JARPA sighting
data. J. Cetacean Res. Manage.
5. Pastene, L. A. 2006. What do we know about the stock structure of the Antarctic minke whale? A summary ofstudies and hypotheses. Paper SC/D06/J12 presented to the JARPA Review workshop, Tokyo, 4-8
December 2006.
6. Tamura, T. and Konishi, K 2009. Feeding Habits and Prey Consumption of Antarctic Minke Whale(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Northwest Atlantic Fishery Science 42:13-25.
7. Government of Japan. 2005. Plan for the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program underSpecial Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II)-Monitoring of the Antarctic Ecosystem and Development of
New Management Objectives for Whale Resources. Paper SC/57/O1 presented to the IWC ScientificCommittee, June 2005 (unpublished), 99pp.
8. Nishiwaki, S., Tohyama, D., Ishikawa, H., Otani, S., Bando, T., Murase, H., Yasunaga, G., Isoda, T., Nemoto,K., Mori, M., Tsunekawa, M., Fukutome, K., Shiozaki, M., Nagamine, M., Konagai, T., Takamatsu, T.,
Kumagai, S., Kage, T., Ito, K., Nagai, H. and Komatsu, W. 2006. Cruise Report of the Second Phase of theJapanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) in 2005/2006 Feasibility study-. Paper SC/58/O7 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, May-June 2006
(unpublished). 21pp.
9. Nishiwaki, S., Ogawa, T., Matsuoka, K., Mogoe, T., Kiwada, H., Konishi, K., Kanda, N., Yoshida, T., Wada,
A., Mori, M., Osawa, T., Kumagai, S., Oshima, T., Kimura, K., Yoshimura, I., Sasaki, T., Aki, M.,
Matsushita, Y., Ito, H., Sudo, S. and Nakamura, G. 2007. Cruise report of the second phase of the Japanese
Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) in 2006/2007 -Feasibility
study- . Paper SC/59/O4 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, May 2007 (unpublished). 23pp.
10. Government of Japan. 2007. Evaluation of 2005/06 and 2006/07 feasibility study of the Second Phase of theJapanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II). Paper SC/59/O3
presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, June 2007 (unpublished), 23pp.
11. Ishikawa, H., Goto, M., Ogawa, T., Bando, T., Kiwada, H., Isoda, T., Kumagai, S., Mori, M., Tsunekawa, M.,
Ohsawa, T., Fukutome, K., Koyanagi, T., Kandabashi, S., Kawabe, S., Sotomura, N., Matsukura, R., Kato,
K., Matsumoto, A., Nakai, K., Hasegawa, M., Mori, T., Yoshioka, S. and Yoshida, T. 2008. Cruise reportof the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic(JARPA II) in 2007/2008. Paper SC/60/O4 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, June 2008
(unpublished). 19pp.
12. Nishiwaki, S., Ogawa, T., Matsuoka, K., Bando, T., Mogoe, T., Otani, S., Konishi, K., Sato, H., Nakai, K.,
Nomura, I., Tanaka, H., Kiwada, H., Mori, M., Tsunekawa, M., Wada, A., Yoshimura, I., Yonezaki, S.,
Nagamine, M., Yoshida, K., Fukutome, K., Tamahashi, K., Morine, G. and Yoshida, T. 2009. Cruise
Report of the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic(JARPA II) in 2008/2009. Paper SC/61/O3 presented to IWC Scientific Committee May 2009
(unpublished). 18pp.

53

13. Nishiwaki, S., Ogawa, T., Bando, T., Isoda, T., Wada, A., Kumagai, S., Yoshida, T., Nakai, K., Kobayashi,T., Koinuma, A., Mori, M., Yoshimura, I., Ohshima, T., Takamatsu, T., Konagai, S., Aki, M. and Tamura,T. 2010. Cruise report of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic second phase (JARPAII) in 2009/10. Paper SC/62/O3 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, May2010 (unpublished).13pp.
14. Ishikawa, H., Matsuoka, K., Konishi, K., Isoda, T., Nakai, K., Kasai, H., Shiozaki, M., Kawabe, S.,
Yamazaki, M., Ogawa, T. Miyazaki, M., Tsunekawa, M. and Yoshida, T. 2011. Cruise Report of theSecond Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPAII)
in 2010/2011. Paper SC/63/O1 presented to IWC Scientific Committee, June 2011, Tromsø, Norway(unpublished). 14pp.

54

Annex 2. A summary of sample and data collected by JARPAII in the first
period (2005/06-2010/11)
This annex shows the list of sample/data produced by JARPA II in the first six-year period, including both lethal
and non-lethal techniques. It should be noted that the items and number of samples by item in this annex are notnecessarily the same as those shown in cruise reports and in SC/F14/J2. This annex considered the samples anddata loss due the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Abundance estimate several species1
1. Angle and distanceexperiments
2. Ice edge line
3. Effort data
4. Weather data
5. Sighting Ant. minkewhale
6. Sighting fin whale
7. Sighting humpbackwhale
8. Sighting blue whale
9. Sighting southern rightwhale
10. Sighting sperm whale
11. Sighting southernbottlenose whale
12. Sighting killer whale

Seasons
2005/06-2010/11

Sample size
2,617 tests

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

4,234 points
43,161 activities
34,694 records
7,344 sch.

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

605 sch.
4,570 sch.

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

146 sch.
150 sch.

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

894 sch.
310 sch.

2005/06-2010/11

352 sch.

Ecological data (oceanographic, marine debris, krill)
13. Temperature (XBT)
14. Temp. Salin. (XCTD)
15. Temp. Salin. (CTD)
16. Temp. Salin. (EPCS)
17. Marine debris(stomach)2
18. Marine debris (seasurface)19. Echo sound (krill
abundance/dist.)
20. IKMT net
21. Body length krill

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

18 stations
347 stations
361 stations
482 days
3,280 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2007/08, 2008/09

88 cases of debris
observations
326 days

2007/08, 2008/09
2007/08, 2008/09

68 stations
68 stations

Antarctic minke whale (biological, feeding ecology, pollutants, stock structure data)
Biological data
22. Catching date
23. Catching location
24. Sex25. Body length
26. Age (earplug)3
27. Age (racemization)4
28. Transition phase5
29. Presence/absence ofcorpora6
30. Testis weight7
31. Fetus length
32. Fetus weight
33. Fetus number8
34. Fetus sex
35. Lactation condition
Feeding Ecol/Energetic

Seasons

Sample size

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

3,264 whales
3,264 whales
3,264 whales
3,264 whales
3,264 whales
41 whales
3,264 whales
1,701 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

1,563 whales
1,127 whales
1,127 whales
1,701 whales
1,127 whales
1,701 whales55

36. Blubber thickness(two points)
37. Body weight
38. Freshness stom.
contents
39. Main prey
40. Organ weight
including fat weight
41. Girth (two points)
42. Stom. content (IWS)
43. Stom. content weight
44. Lipid content inblubber
Pollutants/health945. Heavy metals (whale)
46. Organochlorine(whale)47. Heavy metal (prey)
48. Gross pathologicalobservations of internalorgans10
Stock structure
49. Body proportion (8measurements)
50. mtDNA (sequences)(from catches)
51. mtDNA (RFLP) (fromcatches)
52. Microsatellite DNA(from catches)

2005/06-2010/11

3,264 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

1,598 whales
1,925 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

332 whales
76 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

3,264 whales
3,264 whales
2,953 whales
35 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

195 whales
10 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

20 preys
3,264 whales

2005/06-2010/11

3,264 whales

2005/06-2010/11

1,803 whales

2005/06

764 whales

2005/06-2010/11

2,553 whales

Antarctic fin whale (biological, feeding ecology, pollutants, stock structure data)
Biological data
53. Catching date
54. Catching location
55. Sex
56. Body length
57. Age (earplug)3
58. Transition phase5
59. Presence/absence ofcorpora6
60. Testis weight7
61. Fetus length
62. Fetus weight
63. Fetus number8
64. Fetus sex
65. Lactation condition
Feeding Ecol/Energetic
66. Blubber thickness (14points)67. Body weight
68. Freshness stom.
contents
69. Main prey
70. Organ weight
including fat weight
71. Girth (three points)
72. Stom. content (IWS)
73. Stom. content weight
74. Lipid content inblubber
Pollutants/Health9

Seasons

Sample size

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

17 whales
17 whales
16 whales
16 whales
16 whales
16 whales
8 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

8 whales
3 whales
3 whales
8 whales
3 whales
8 whales

2005/06-2010/11

16 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

15 whales
14 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

15 whales
15 whales

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

16 whales
16 whales
15 whales
10 whales5675. Heavy metals (whale)
76. Organochlorine(whale)77. Gross pathologicalobservations of internalorgans10
Stock structure
78. Externalmeasurements (41)79. mtDNA (sequences)(catches and biopsy)
80. Microsatellite DNA(catches and biopsy)

Stock structure other species
Humpback whale
81. mtDNA (sequences)(biopsy)
82. Microsatellite DNA(biopsy)
83. Photo-ID data
Blue whale
84. mtDNA (sequences)(biopsy)
85. Photo-ID data
Southern right whale
86. mtDNA (sequences)(biopsy)
87. Microsatellite DNA(biopsy)
88. Photo-ID data

2005/06-2010/11
2005/06-2010/11

16 whales
16 whales

2005/06-2010/11

16 whales

2005/06-2010/11

16 whales

2005/06-2010/11

C: 17; B: 13 whales

2005/06-2010/11

C: 17; B: 13 whales

Seasons

Sample size

2005/06-2010/11

133 whales

2005/06-2010/11? whales11

2005/06-2010/11

1,201 pictures

2005/06-2010/11

11 whales

2005/06-2010/11

376 pictures

2005/06-2010/11

34 whales

2005/06-2010/11

34 whales

2005/06-2010/11

671 pictures

Annotations
1. Standard Line Transect data. It should be noted that in some JARPA II surveys some areas could not becovered due to external interferences and sabotages from anti-whaling groups, and that some kind ofinterpolation will be necessary.
2. The figure given corresponds to the total number of stomachs examined.
3. JARPA II age data of Antarctic minke whale were obtained by a new reader with expertise and training
enough for this kind of work. The figure given here are the total number of earplugs examined. Age information
could be obtained for 81.8% of the total samples. An ageing calibration exercise was carried out (see Kitakado
et al., 2013). In the case of the fin whales age information could be obtained for 100% of the samples.
4 .This sample size corresponds to the results of a pilot study to investigate the feasibility of the racemization
method for ageing purposes. At this stage these data were not produced for the purpose of biological parameters
estimates but for examining the feasibility of the technique.
5. The figure given corresponds to the total earplugs examined. Transition Phase information in the Antarctic
minke whales could be obtained for approximately 42.1% of the total samples (mature+immature). In the case of
the fin whales transition phase information could be obtained for one animal out of 16.
6. Ovary samples were lost as an effect of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami so information on the number ofcorpora is not available. Information on the presence/absence of corpora (information necessary for
determining sexual maturity in females) is based on examination of the ovaries conducted at the field.
7. While in JARPA both testis weight and histological approaches were used for determining sexual maturity inmales, in JARPA II maturity of males was determined only by the testis weight criterion (due to ‘man-power’limitation and economical considerations).
8. The figure given corresponds to the total females examined.
9. The 2011 earthquake and tsunami affected heavily the samples collected for pollutant studies. This explains
the particular smaller samples size for this item.
10. This figure corresponds to the total number of whales examined for abnormal tissues or organs in grosspathology.
11. Due to ‘man-power’ limitation, the microsatellite data could not be obtained in time for this report. It is
possible that some microsatellite data are produced at a later stage. People interested in genetic data for stock
structure studies of humpback whales should consult the person in charge directly (see ‘Contact details’ below).

57

Annex 3. Protocol for access to samples/data from the Institute of Cetacean
Research (ICR), Tokyo, Japan, under Procedure B
INTRODUCTION
This protocol has been developed in the context of Procedure B of the IWC Scientific Committee's rules for data
availability adopted at the 55th Annual Meeting (Journal of Cetacean Research and Management 6 (suppl.): inpress). Procedure B applies to data required for analyses deemed important in providing advice to the Committee
other than catch limits. Conditions for data recipients (repeated below) as specified in the rules for data
availability are applicable.
It was agreed that the Committee shall specify the nature of the work and the data required during the meeting at
which the recommendation is made, to the fullest extent possible in the time available at the meeting and inaccord with the published protocol. Requests to the ICR for data under Procedure B of the Scientific Committee's
rules for data availability shall be submitted by the Data Availability Group assisted by a nominated member of
ICR.
It was also agreed that if the correct process is followed, the data owners will normally approve the applications
within a ‘specified time period’; in this case ICR agrees that it will respond within two weeks of receiving anapplication.

FORMAT OF THE APPLICATION
The format for the application is based on the revised application for catch-at-age analyses agreed by all
members of the Scientific Committee at the end of the Scientific Committee meeting in 2003 (Annex G,
Appendix 11).
(a) Title of the proposal, giving the broad subject of the proposed analyses.
(b) Investigators: the full name and affiliation of the principal investigator(s) and co-investigator(s) should
be provided. This should include at least one scientist from ICR.
(c) Objectives and rationale of the study as specified by the by the Scientific Committee along with theappropriate reference to the report(s) of the Scientific Committee. This will include the reasons why the
proposed analyses are important and how they fit into previous work.
(d) Data to be used will include a general description of all data to be used as well as data held by ICR. For
the ICR-held data, the precise requirements will be given, including the level of disaggregation.
(e) Description of the methods likely to be used. The level of detail must be in accordance with the level ofnovelty of the proposed methods and the particular research questions they will address. References tosimilar analyses should be included where available.
(f) Schedule of the work: this should include estimated times for the various analyses to be carried out andan indication of which investigators will collaborate on individual components. If the project is a longterm project, annual progress reports will be required by ICR and the Scientific Committee.
(g) Output of the research: this will follow the rules for publication agreed at the Scientific Committee
meeting and given below. ICR may consider requests for less stringent conditions (e.g. presentations at
non-IWC scientific meetings, publications, etc.). Such requests should be detailed here.
CONSIDERATION OF THE PROPOSAL
If an application has been approved by the whole Scientific Committee at an annual meeting, it will normally beapproved by ICR. However, the final decision will always remain the prerogative of ICR. ICR may request
reviews by an internal review group and/or external experts. The following factors will be taken in to account by
ICR when considering applications.
(a) Priority: highest priority for analysis/research of samples/data produced by Japan's Whale Research
Programs under Special Permit, will be for the scientists that collected and obtained the data in any
particular field.
(b) Suitability of the requested data in the context of the proposed methods and the objectives of theresearch.

58

(c) Level of co-operation with ICR scientists.
The response to an application for data will be communicated by the ICR's Director General to the Data
Availability Group and may include requests for further information. If the research proposal is accepted, ICR
will nominate a scientist, (normally one of the co-investigators) who shall be responsible for making thenecessary arrangements to provide the required samples/data.

Agreed Scientific Committee conditions for data recipients
Applications deemed suitable under Procedure A or Procedure B below are granted under the following
conditions:(1) Data shall not be transmitted to third parties.
(2) Papers may only be submitted to a Committee meeting in accordance with the time restrictions given
below. Such papers must not include the raw data or the data in a form in more detail than is necessary
to understand the analysis.
(3) Papers must carry a restriction on citation except in the context of IWC meetings.
(4) Data owners are offered co-authorship.
(5) Publication rights remain strictly with the data owner.
(6) Data shall be returned, to the Secretariat or the data owner as appropriate, immediately after the meetingat which the paper is submitted and any copies destroyed, unless an extension is granted.
(7) Data requesters sign a form agreeing to the above conditions. Such forms will be held by the data ownerand the Secretariat. In the case of Procedure B, the Data Availability Group will sign the agreement on
the Committee’s behalf and ensure that the conditions of any agreement are met by any individual
scientists involved in the analysis.
(8) In the event of a breach of the conditions in (6), serious sanctions [to be determined] will apply.

59

Annex 4. Summary of the work carried out by Japanese scientists in response to
several recommendations and suggestions on JARPA research offered by the
IWC SC in 2007 (Update of the table published in IWC, 2008, pp 349)
Recommendation or suggestion

In the JARPA
review report

Updated status (as for June 2013)

Suggested

Not addressed yet.

Suggested

Not addressed yet.

Suggested

Not addressed yet.

AgreedAddressed in a published paper:

5. Regarding detection function
estimation, as a guideline, detection
functions should be estimated using an
absolute minimum of 15 sightings.
Where fewer sightings occur poolingshould be undertaken

Recommended

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:

6. Regarding variance estimation fromthe SSV data, the data to be re-analyzed
treating all three parallel transect legs as
the sampling unit

Recommended

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:

7. Regarding the accounting for theorder that the strata were surveyed(which is relevant for trend estimation),a generalized linear modeling approach(similar to that conducted in SC/D06/J6)
be taken whereby appropriately chosen
covariates or factors (such as the middle
date that a stratum was surveyed in agiven year) could be included to enable
more valid between-year comparisons
8. Additional variance be estimated aswell as taking due account of estimatesof sampling variance for each stratum

Recommended

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:

Recommended

Addressed in a published paper:

9. Regarding estimation of effective
strip width and mean school size fromthe SSV data, sensitivities to the poolingof three SSV tracklines for estimation ofeffective strip width and mean school
size, be investigated

Recommended

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:

10. Regarding extrapolation into

Recommended

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:

AE (Abundance estimates for-Antarctic
minke whales)
1. Conduct further investigation of
SC/D06/J3 approach using simulation
studies to assess correction performance
2. On Skip C, investigate the possibilityof post-application of the adaptive
sampling to closing mode survey forfinding better correction formulae
3. Investigate whether satellite data may
provide more accurate information on
the ice-edge for the DSM (density
surface model)
4. To fit a model which is able toaccount for heteroscedascity in sampling
variance and incorporate additionalvariance

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)

60

unsurveyed areas, it would be valuable
to bound the problem by examining
results for which the abundance in theunsurveyed area is treated as zero
11. Where such (primary E-W)
extrapolation are necessary, the ratio of
density in the unsurveyed area to thesurveyed area be calculated from data inother years. The product of this ratio andthe density in the surveyed area in thatyear would be used as the estimateddensity to extrapolate into theunsurveyed area in that year
12. Regarding analysis using the sawtooth track line design, all transects
would be useful at least in estimating
effective strip width and mean school
size (and their variances). In order tomore fully understand the results inTable 4 of J6 and their implications, thesensitivity analyses of J6 are repeated
but with appropriate weighting of thedata (e.g. in proportion to the number ofsightings within a stratum), and/or bybootstrapping (conditional on the total
number of sightings)
Abundance estimates for humpbackwhale
13. Regarding the estimation of trend in
humpback whales further refinement of
the linear model, as discussed for minke
whales, by incorporating process error
as well as a trend parameter, an area
effect and the survey sampling error be
examined
SS (Stock structure of Antarctic minke
whale)
1. In addition to genetic studies it would
be useful to include potential alternative
stock markers such as stable isotopes(e.g. Carbon, Oxygen, Hydrogen andStrontium)
2. Clustering methods based on
individual genotypes, that avoid a priori
assumptions about population
boundaries may be usefully applied (e.g.
MDS or PCA methods).
3. Spatial correlation and Mantel test
were suggested to resolve the positionand nature of this transitional pattern

Recommended

4. Other analyses based on individual
genotypes such as landscape genetics asassessed in the program ‘alleles inspace’ may help resolve the pattern ofstructure and mixing (though this would
likely require 15+ microsatellite loci toprovide sufficient power)
5. Transitional area could be studied byfitting a mixing model where thefraction of whales belonging to one
putative population is a function of thelongitude at which it was sampled. This
could be a simple logistic regression
model coupled with two-product

Suggested

Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)
Addressed in a published paper:
Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)

AgreedAddressed in a published paper:
Hakamada, T., Matsuoka, K., Nishiwaki, S. and Kitakado, T.
Abundance estimates and trends for Antarctic minke whales(Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in Antarctic Areas IV and V
based on JARPA sighting data (Journal of Cetacean Researchand Management- in press)

Recommended

Addressed in a published paper:
Matsuoka, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Murase, H. andNishiwaki, S. 2011. Abundance estimates and trends forhumpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Antarctic
Areas IV and V based on JARPA sighting data. J. Cetacean
Res. Manage. (Special Issue) 3, 75-94.

Suggested

This suggestion has not been taken further because studies on
stock structure under JARPA/JARPA II already consider
several markers, with the results being consistent among them

Recommended

As first step toward these analyses, the number ofmicrosatellite loci was increased in JARPA II from six to 12,
and clustering methods were tried (SC/F14/J28).

Suggested

This suggestion has not been taken further because there is noconsensus at the Scientific Committee on the power(resolution) of the Mantel Test to resolve stock structure
questions (IWC, 2001, pp 98)
As first step toward these analyses, the number ofmicrosatellite loci was increased in JARPA II from six to 12,
and clustering methods were tried (SC/F14/J28).

Suggested

This was addressed by developing the model in:
Kitakado, T., Schweder, T., Kanda, N., Pastene, L. andWalloe, L. 2012. Progress report on the estimation of
longitudinal mixing proportions for the Antarctic minke
whales using genetic and morphometric measurements. Paper
SC/64/IA4 presented to IWC Scientific Committee, June61

multinomial models describing the allele
frequencies in the two putative stocks
either side of the transition area. It could
be extended beyond two populations,and incorporate both genetic andmorphometric data
6. Conduct satellite tracking toinvestigate location of breeding grounds
7. Conduct analysis of available samples
for the potential extension of theanalysis geographically (e.g. Areas III
and VI)

2012, Panama City, Panama (unpublished) 13pp
The model is applied to JARPA and JARPAII data in
SC/F14/J29
Emphasized

RaisedA first attempt to attach satellite tags was made in the 1993/94
JARPA survey (SC/46/SH15). More recent attempts weremade in 2005/06 JARPA II survey (SC/58/O7), 2006/07(SC59/O4) and 2011/12 (SC/64/O2).
This suggestion has not been taken further because samples
collected by commercial whaling around the pack ice are notparticularly useful for studies on stock structure as
demonstrated by the earlier study below:
Goto, M., Zenitani, R., Fujise, Y. and Pastene, L.A. 1998.
Examination of mitochondrial DNA heterogeneity in minke
whale from Area IV considering temporal, longitudinal andlatitudinal factors. Paper SC/50/CAWS7 presented to the IWC
Scientific Committee, April 1998 (unpublished). 10pp

Stock structure of humpback whale
8. Every effort should be made forscientists to share data from low andhigh latitude and carry out DNA
analysis on southern humpback whales
under the IWC Data Availability data
access protocol
Stock structure of dwarf minke whale
9. Apparent paraphyly of dwarf minke
whale should be investigated further

BP (Biological parameters)
1. In order to verify age readings using
known age animals the feasibility ofdetecting the bomb radiocarbon signal in
earplug laminae be looked into

2. The comparability of commercial and
JARPA age data be investigated by rereading a subset of the commercial
samples in an appropriately designed
blind test

RemindedThis was addressed in:
Pastene, L.A., Kitakado, T., Goto, M. and Kanda, N. 2013.
Mixing rates of humpback whales of Stocks D, E and F in the
Antarctic feeding grounds based on mitochondrial DNA
analyses. Paper SC/65a/SH13 presented to the IWC ScientificCommittee, June 2013 (unpublished), 11pp.

Suggested

This was addressed in:
Pastene, L.A., Goto, M., Kanda, N., Zerbini, A.N., Kerem, D.,
Watanabe, K., Bessho, Y., Hasegawa, M., Nielsen, R., Larsen,
F. and Palsbøll, P.J. 2007. Radiation and speciation of pelagicorganisms during periods of global warming: the case of thecommon minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata.
Molecular Ecology 16: 1481–1495.

Recommended

This suggestion has not been taken further. Previous studies of
fin whales as well as corpora counts and animals with known
histories indicated that the growth layers counted to age
whales were laid down annually (IWC, 2011a, pp191). There
are no reasons to think a different pattern occur for minke
whalesRecommended

This was addressed in:
Zenitani, R., Kishiro, T., Hakamada, T. And Kato, H. 2007.
Current status and future plan of age reading by earplugs inbaleen whales under the scientific permits, with note on age
reading of Antarctic minke whales. Paper SC/59/O8 presented
to the IWC Scientific Committee, May 2007 (unpublished).
8pp., and
Lockyer, C. 2010. Report of the Antarctic minke whale ear
plug experiment. Paper SC/62/IA11) presented to the IWC
Scientific Committee, June 2010 (unpublished), 4pp.

3. The ADAPT-VPA could be run
without using the commercial age data

Task identified

Based on latter study the IWC SC agreed in 2010 'that nofurther experiments or analyses on age reading errors areneeded to resolve ageing related problems raised in e.g. the
JARPA review' (IWC, 2011b, pp26)
This was addressed in:Mori, M., Butterworth, D. and Kitakado, T. 2007. Further
progress on application of adapt-VPA to Antarctic minke

62

whales. Paper SC/59/IA13 presented to the IWC ScientificCommittee, May 2007 (unpublished). 32pp.
Several other SC recommendations were addressed in:
Punt, A.E., Bando, T., Hakamada, T. and Kishiro, T. 2013.
Assessment of Antarctic minke whales using statistical catchat-age analysis. Paper SC/65a/IA1 presented to the IWC
Scientific Committee, June 2013 (unpublished),
42pp.(SC/F14/ForInfo1), and in Document SC/F14/O1.
ME (Marine ecosystem)
1. Determination of the duration of thefeeding period is fundamental toestimate total consumption and must be
adequately addressed
2. Examination at smaller spatial scales
3. Use of GLM or similar to examine
trend, incorporating covariates such asage, size and reproductive status ofwhales as well as the date and time ofday

4. Examination of other factors
including age, latitude, distance from theice-edge and non-linearity in trends inthe analysis of blubber thickness (JCRM
10 (Suppl.), 2008, pp 350)

Recommended

This was considered in SC/F14/J15.

Recommended
Recommended

This was considered in SC/F14/J15.
This was addressed in:
Konishi, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Kitakado, T. andWalloe, L. 2012. Decrease in stomach contents in the
Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in theSouthern Ocean. Paper For Info 16 presented to the IWC
Scientific Committee, June 2012 (unpublished), 17pp.

Suggested

A revised versions of this document was accepted for
publication in Polar Biology (see also SC/F14/J14)
This was addressed in:
Konishi, K., Tamura, T., Zenitani, R., Bando, T., Kato, H. andWalloe, L. 2007. Decline in energy storage in the Antarctic
minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern
Ocean using JARPA data. Paper SC/59/O10 presented to the
IWC Scientific Committee, May 2007 (unpublished). 10pp.,
and,Konishi, K., Tamura, T., Zenitani, R., Bando, T., Kato, H. andWalløe, L. 2008. Decline in energy storage in the Antarctic
minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern
Ocean. Polar Biol 31:1509-1520.
Results of the latest analyses were presented to the 2013 IWC
SC meeting:Konishi, K. and Butterworth, D.S. 2013. Further investigationof whether correlations amongst data are invalidating theconclusion of a statistically significant trend in Antarctic
minke body condition over time. Paper SC/65a/EM4 presented
to the IWC Scientific Committee, June 2013 (unpublished),
3pp.
During the 2013 IWC SC meeting, a new analysis using total
body fat as a dependent variable was presented (Appendix 6
Annex K1 of the 2013 IWC SC meeting report)

Further analyses are presented in SC/F14/J13
5. Consideration should be given towhether the particular blubber thickness
measurement chosen was actually agood proxy for energy storage (forexample lipid content can varyconsiderably within blubber)
6. Analysis should be expanded toincorporate the other extensive
information available from the JARPA
datasets that relates to energy storage in
an integrated manner (e.g. other blubber

Suggested

This was addressed in:

Recommended

Konishi, K. 2006. Characteristics of blubber distribution andbody condition indicators for Antarctic minke whale(Balaenoptera bonaerensis). Mammal Study 31: 15-22. See
also SC/F14/J13.
This was addressed in:
Konishi, K., Tamura, T., Zenitani, R., Bando, T., Kato, H. andWalloe, L. 2007. Decline in energy storage in the Antarctic
minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern63measurements, organ weights, etc.)

Ocean using JARPA data. Paper SC/59/O10 presented to the
IWC Scientific Committee, May 2007 (unpublished). 10pp.,
andKonishi, K., Tamura, T., Zenitani, R., Bando, T., Kato, H. andWalløe, L. 2008. Decline in energy storage in the Antarctic
minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) in the Southern
Ocean. Polar Biol 31:1509-1520.
See also SC/F14/J13.

References
International Whaling Commission 2001. Report of the Scientific Committee. Annex D. Report of the SubCommittee on the Revised Management Procedure. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.) 3: 90-125.
International Whaling Commission 2008. Report of the Scientific Committee. Annex O. Report of the Standing
Working Group on Scientific Permits . J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.)10: 341-350.
International Whaling Commission 2011a. Report of the Scientific Committee. Annex G. Report of the SubCommittee on In-Depth Assessments. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.) 12: 185-202.
International Whaling Commission 2011b. Report of the Scientific Committee. J. Cetacean Res. Manage.
(Suppl.) 12: 1-75.

64Annex 5. Brief outline of the research area, target species, sample size andgeneral methodology of the JARPAII
The research area, rational for target species, sample sizes and general methodology of the JARPAII wereexplained in the original JARPAII plan (Government of Japan, 2005). In this annex the main aspects of those
topics are summarized.
Research area
The research area of the JARPAII is basically the same as in the JARPA: the eastern part of Area III, Areas IV
and V, and the western part of Area VI (35°E - 145°W) (Figure 1). The JARPA II surveys cover alternatively thewestern part of this area in one year (35°E - 175°E) and the eastern part in the next year (130°E - 145°W). Thus,
surveys repeat in the western and eastern parts every two years. The area from 130°E to 175°E was planned to becovered every year in order to investigate the yearly change in mixing proportion of two Antarctic minke whale
stocks in that sector. That is to say, Antarctic minke whales were taken west of 175°E in the first year and east of
130°E in the second (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Research area and survey procedure of the JARPAII. The total longitudinal span of the JARPAII surveys is from
35ºE to 145ºW. For Antarctic minke whale surveys are conducted in the western part (35º-130ºE) plus transition area (130º175ºE) in one year, and in the eastern part (175ºE-145ºW) plus transition area in the second year. Then surveys repeat in thewestern and eastern parts every two years. The area from 130°E to 175°E was planned to be covered every year in order toinvestigate the yearly change in mixing proportion of two Antarctic minke whale stocks in that transition area. That is to say,
Antarctic minke whales are taken west of 175°E in one year and east of 130°E in the next. Sampling of humpback whale isconfined to Area IV in one year and to Area V in the next. Sampling of fin whales is confined to Areas IIIE plus IV in one
year and to Areas V plus Area VIW in the next (see details in Government of Japan, 2005). Sighting surveys are conductedfrom 60ºS while sampling from 62ºS. Figure made using Ocean Data View (Schlitzer, 2013).

Target species and stocks
The western part of the research area comprises the main area of distribution of the Antarctic minke whale IStock. In this part but especially in Area IV (70º-130ºE), humpback whales from the so-called Breeding Stock D(Western Australia-Area IV) have shown a rapid increase in recent years, and have surpassed the Antarctic
minke whale in biomass (Matsuoka et al., 2011). Fin whales have also shown a rapid increase in abundance(Matsuoka et al., 2006). The eastern part of the research area, mostly made up of the Ross Sea, comprises themain area of distribution of the Antarctic minke whale P-Stock. This stock has a remarkably large abundance. In
this part, humpback whales have also shown an increase in recent years. Therefore the research area offers aunique opportunity to study the interactions among whale species-stocks, and the environment.
The species and stocks targeted for the lethal component of the JARPAII as indicated in the original researchplan are Antarctic minke whales of the I and P Stock; humpback whales of the Breeding Stocks D and E; and fin
whales of the Indian Ocean and Western South Pacific stocks. Viewed overall, sampling of the three species in65

two Areas was considered to provide an important opportunity to gain insight into the dynamics of whale andinter-species competition through comparative analyses (Government of Japan, 2005).
Sample size for the lethal component of the JARPAII
Details of the sample size estimates procedure are given in the Appendices 4, 6, 7 and 8 of the original JARPAII
research plan (Government of Japan, 2005).
Sample sizes were estimated with the aim of monitoring changes in some biological parameters considered as‘indicators’ of changes in the ecosystem e.g. pregnancy rate, age at sexual maturity, blubber thickness,monitoring pathologies, abundance from paternity via DNA in the case of Antarctic minke whale; age at sexual
maturity and pregnancy rate in the case of humpback and fin whales, which is related to Objective 1 of the
JARPAII. The analytical procedure for estimating sample size considered three aspects, a) the level of statisticalaccuracy sought, b) the extent (rate) of the biological changes that we wished to detect, and c) the period of timewithin which we wished to detect those biological changes. With regard to a) the 5% level of accuracy which isthe norm employed by the IWC SC was chosen; regarding b) rate of change in different biological parameters of
Antarctic minke whale was obtained from observations in the 18-year long JARPA research period, while those
information in the case of humpback and fin whales was obtained from the period of commercial whaling; withregards to c) a period of six years was chosen in the case of Antarctic minke whale as established in the original
research plan as the period of periodic review, which coincides with the RMP Implementation review period(IWC, 2012). Considering a precautionary approach in the case of the humpback and fin whales (species notconsidered for management under the RMP), a period of 12 years was chosen for the calculations. The use of
biological information from humpback and fin whales is qualitative compared to the quantitative use of Antarctic
minke whale data. Ecosystem models input the Antarctic minke whale stomach fullness trend, but biological datafrom fin and humpback would be used only for independent qualitative checks of model predictions.
The annual sample size of Antarctic minke whales was set at 850 animals +/- 10% while those for humpback andfin whales were set at 50 each. These figures obviously represent a compromise between different parameters,
chosen because they satisfy the statistical conditions for most of the research items, and because catches at thatlevel will cause no harm to the stocks.
It should be noted that the examination of trend in biological parameters in the six-year period of the JARPAII
was not possible because the estimated target sample size for Antarctic minke whale (850) was attained only inthe 2005/06 season. No humpback whale was sampled and the number of fin whales sampled was very low. Thiswas due mainly to the continued violent sabotage activities by an anti-whaling NGO, which substantially limited
the capacity of sampling and the temporal/spatial survey coverage in most of the surveys of the JARPAII in thisfirst period (see Annex 6 for details).
Length of the JARPAII
The original research plan stated that the JARPAII will be a long-term research program and that acomprehensive review will be conducted following completion of the first 6 years of the research (Governmentof Japan, 2005).
JARPAII started from the 2005/06 austral summer season. The first two seasons (2005/06 and 2006/07) werededicated to feasibility studies in order to examine the practicability and appropriateness of sighting methods inthe enlarged area and sampling procedures given the increased sample size and additional species in relation to
the previous JARPA (the sample sizes for Antarctic minke, fin and humpback whales in each of these two
feasibility years were 850+/- 10%, 10 and 0, respectively). Since the target species of JARPAII included larger
whales, methods for catching, flensing and taking biological measurements of large body-sized whales were also
tested. Results of the feasibility surveys were presented in Government of Japan (2007). The full-scale JARPAII
started from the 2007/08 season.
The JARPAII is a long-term research program with no specified termination date because its primary objective,that is, monitoring the Antarctic ecosystem requires a continuing program of research. While the JARPA wasdesigned to estimate such items as age at sexual maturity, pregnancy rate, and blubber thickness for a whale
species over a particular period, the JARPAII has the purpose of detecting changes in those parameters over a
period of time. In this regard it should be noted that Article VIII, paragraph 4 of the ICRW recognizes thenecessity of ‘continuous collection and analysis of biological data’ in connection with the whaling operation.

66

While a termination date is not set, the JARPA II is to be kept under periodic scientific review on the basis of its
six-year term research phases. With the accumulation of data from the six-years phases, revisions of the program
will be made as appropriate based primarily on IWC SC reviews.
General methodology
There are three kinds of surveys in the JARPA II:

Dedicated sighting surveys and the application of the Line Transect Method for estimating the numberof whales present in a particular area at a particular season. Abundance estimates are important for
Objectives 1 (monitoring of whale abundance trend) and 2 (input parameter to the ecosystem models).
Whale surveys on pre-determined track-lines to obtain samples and data related to Objectives 1 (themonitoring of biological parameters trend, stomach content trends, blubber thickness trend, pollutant
level trend, etc.) and 3 (stock structure). Some of these data are used as input parameters to theecosystem modeling.
Prey species surveys to investigate distribution and biomass of krill (through echo-sounder and net
surveys). This is related to Objective 1 (monitoring of krill abundance trend) and 2 (input parameter tothe ecosystem model). During the surveys detailed oceanographic information is also obtained using
CTD and XCTD so that distribution of whales and prey species can be studied together with theoceanographic information. This is important for Objective 1 (cetacean habitat).

The following is a brief description of the methodology used for each research objective of the JARPAII:
Analytical procedures
Objective 1: Monitoring the Antarctic ecosystema)

Whale abundance

The sighting procedures in the JARPAII have been established to match the IWC/IDCR (International Decadefor Cetacean Research) and SOWER (Southern Ocean Whale and Ecosystem Research) cruises to the extent
possible. Sighting data were collected by the Line Transect Method. The track-line was designed in order tocover the strata uniformly and all the whale or cetacean schools sighted were recorded. It should be noted thatsighting surveys could not be carried out as originally planned due to the violent sabotage activities of the NGO(Annex 6) and consequently several adjustments and interpolations to un-surveyed areas were made. Whaleabundances were estimated from the sighting data and the program DISTANCE. Several sensitivity analyses
were conducted. Annual rates of increase in abundance were estimated using log-linear models.
b) Whale distribution
Sighting and effort data obtained through systematic surveys in Areas IIIE-VIW, from south of 60ºS to the packice edge in austral summer were examined to study the distribution pattern of large whales. The spatial andtemporal pattern of distribution of large baleen whales in the JARPAII research area was studied by investigating
the monthly changes in density index (number of whales sighted by 100 nm) in each of the Areas and Sectors.
Spatial modeling analyses were also used to examine changes in whale species distribution with time.
c)

Age at sexual maturity and pregnancy rate

Age at sexual maturity in the Antarctic minke whale was estimated using standard techniques, by counting
growth layers at the transition phase in earplugs. Apparent pregnancy rate in this species was estimated as theratio of pregnant females within the total number of sexually matured females. Sexual maturity in females wasdetermined by observation of corpora in the ovaries. Whales with at least one corpus luteum or corpus albicantsin the ovaries were identified as sexually mature. Yearly trend in age at sexual maturity and pregnancy rates wasestimated by regression analyses.
On methodological development, enantiomers of aspartic acid in lens of whales were measured by highperformance liquid chromatography (HPLC) to investigate an alternative method of ageing Antarctic minke
whales.
d) Recruitment rate67

Recruitments over the years were estimated by catch-at-age analyses such as SCAA and ADAPT-VPA based onage (JARPA/JARPAII and commercial) and abundance (JARPA/JARPAII and IDCR/SOWER) data.
Recruitments were fitted to the Pella-Tomlinson reproduction model to estimate MSYR.
e)

Stomach content weight

In the case of the Antarctic minke whale, weight in the forestomach was used to investigate yearly trend in thisparameter. This analysis was conducted by regression models with several covariates using both the JARPA and
JARPAII datasets.
f)

Body condition

Blubber thickness was used as one of the body condition indicators. It was measured in the field to the nearest
mm, by dissecting perpendicularly without including skin on board the research vessel. The main measurement
point was the lateral part of the body at the level of dorsal fin. The analysis of yearly trend of this parameter inthe Antarctic minke whale was conducted by regression models with several covariates using both the JARPA
and JARPAII dataset.
g) Krill biomass
Krill biomass was estimated based on data collected by echo-sounder and IKMT net surveys.
h) Contaminant load
The level of accumulation of pollutants was measured using standard analytical protocols: Cold Vapor Atomic
Absorption Spectrophotometry (CV-AAS) for Hg in biological tissues of predators and prey species, and Gas
chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) for organochlorines in biological tissues of predators. In order tounderstand the accumulation characteristics of pollutants in whales, biological information such as sex andmaturity stage of the animals was considered.
i)

Oceanography

Hydrographic observations were made using CTD (Conductivity-Temperature-Depth profiler) and XCTD
(Expendable CTD) to understand the oceanographic features and dynamics of water fronts and masses in the
JARPAII research area. Temperature and salinity profiles were obtained for the depth range from 0 to 1,000m by
XCTD and from 0 to 500m for CTD. Oceanographic data obtained by CTD and XCTD were combined andstored.
j)

Marine debris

The occurrence of marine debris in the Antarctic environment and in the stomach content of whales was
summarized for the JARPA and JARPAII periods.
It should be noted that for the reasons given in Annex 6 a) the analyses of changes in biological and ecologicalparameters under this objective was possible only for the Antarctic minke whale, and that those analyses
combined both the JARPA and JARPAII data; b) time trend analysis under this objective was not possible forkrill abundance; c) yearly trend analysis under this objective was not possible for pollutant load.
Objective 2: Modelling competition among whale species
Two types of modelling approaches were employed; one is the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), a comprehensive(whole-of-ecosystem) model, and the other is a multi-species production model. There are differences in thecomponent species between them, but the baleen whales and krill play key roles in both. For the EwE approach,once completed the mass-balancing for Ecopath for 27 functional groups, the next step is to move on toprojection forward (and backward if possible) by using the Ecosim framework. Statistical estimation was
conducted for tuning the parameters of the dynamics based on the time series of biomass trends for some species
including toothed and baleen whales. For the multi-species production model, some bioenergetics reasoning wasused especially in the functional responses to reduce the number of parameters to be estimated in the predatorsprey model. Then the model was applied to the data of time series of baleen whales, seals and krill. Priority is
being given to the production model in the light of recent IWC SC discussions.

68Input data for the models comes from the JARPA and JARPAII surveys (e.g. prey consumption of whales,abundance of krill, abundance of cetaceans including baleen whales and some toothed whale species), as wellfrom published information from other sources.
The analysis of prey consumption in Antarctic minke and fin whales follows similar methodology used in theeastern North Atlantic by Norwegian scientists (Haug et al., 1995a; 1995b, Nordoy et al., 1995). The daily prey
consumption was estimated using two independent methods, one based on theoretical energy requirement and theother based on diurnal changes of stomach contents mass. Estimates are based on data collected from the first(forestomach) and second (fundus) compartments.
Objective 3: Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure
An update of the stock structure studies in the Antarctic minke whale was made using genetics markers, nuclear(microsatellites) and mitochondrial (control region sequencing) DNA.
The extent of genetic differentiation among Areas and Sectors was examined by standard analyses including
hypothesis testing. In the case of the microsatellite analyses clustering methods based on individual genotypes
that avoid a priori assumptions about population boundaries were also used.
The transitional area was studied by fitting a logistic mixing model where the fraction of whales belonging to
one putative population is a function of the longitude at which it was sampled. Both the genetic and non-genetic(morphometric) data contribute to the likelihood function simultaneously for this integrated analysis.
Stocks structure in the JARPAII research area was also studied for humpback, fin and southern right whales
based mainly using biopsy samples, and mtDNA control region sequencing and microsatellites. Analyticaltechniques are standard, involving individual identification using microsatellite, hypothesis testing andphylogenetic analyses.
Objective 4: Improving the management procedure for Antarctic minke whale stocks under the RMP
The goals under this objective will be covered with progress of the work under the other three objectives (SeeFigure 1). This objective is divided into two parts, a) contribution to the implementation of the current RMP
through the attainment of key information such as abundance, stock structure and MSYR, and b) contribution to
the future improvement of the RMP through the incorporation of a more realistic MSYR range into the RMP
algorithm, and the incorporation of the effect arising from the inter-species relationships among whale species.
For a) above abundance and MSYR (through SCAA analysis) will be obtained under Objective 1) while theredefinition of Management Areas and mixing will follow results on stock structure under the Objective 3). Forb) above, MSYR (through SCAA analysis) will be obtained under Objective 1) and the incorporation of theeffect arising from the inter-species relationships among whales species will be examined after the developmentof the ecosystem model has been completed under Objective 2).
Other analyses not related to JARPAII objectives
Several analyses were conducted on the reproductive biology and physiology of the Antarctic minke whale. See
details of the technical aspects in Nagai et al. (2007), Ono et al. (2009) and Sasaki et al. (2013).
An update of the effect on the stocks of the JARPAII catches of Antarctic minke whales will be carried out basedon new abundance and stock structure information, and Hitter-Fitter methodology.
References
Government of Japan 2005. Plan for the second phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special
Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) -Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem and development of new
management objectives for whale resources. Paper SC/57/O1 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee,
June 2005 (unpublished). 99pp.

69

Government of Japan 2007. Evaluation of 2005/06 and 2006/07 feasibility study of the second phase of theJapanese whale research program under special permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II). Paper SC/59/O3
presented to the IWC Scientific Committee, May 2007 (unpublished). 23pp.
Haug, T., Gjosater, H., Lindstrom, U., Nilssen, K.T. and Rottingen, I. 1995a. Spatial and temporal variations innortheast Atlantic minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata feeding habits. Pp 225-239. In: A.S. Blix, L.
Walloe and O. Ulltang (eds.) Whales, seals, fish and man, Development in marine Biology 4. Elsevier,
Amsterdam, 720pp.
Haug, T., Gjosater, H., Lindstrom, U. and Nilssen, K.T. 1995b. Diets and food availability for northeast Atlantic
minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata during summer 1992. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 52: 77-86.
International Whaling Commission 2012. The Revised Management Procedure (RMP) for baleen whales. J.
Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.) 13: 485-494.
Matsuoka, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Murase, H. and Nishiwaki, S. 2006. Distributions and standardized
abundance estimates for humpback, fin and blue whales in the Antarctic Areas IIIE, IV, V and VIW (35E 145W), south of 60S. Paper SC/D06/J7 presented to the JARPA Review Workshop, Tokyo, 4-8 December
2006. 37pp.
Matsuoka, K., Hakamada, T., Kiwada, H., Murase, H. and Nishiwaki, S. 2011. Abundance estimates and trends
for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Antarctic Areas IV and V based on JARPA sightings
data. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Special Issue 3): 575-94.
Nagai, H., Mogoe, T., Ishikawa, H., Hochi, S., Ohsumi, S. and Fukui, Y. 2007. Follicle size-dependent changes
in follicular fluid components and oocyte diameter in Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis).
Journal of Reproduction and Development 53(6): 1265-1272.
Nordøy, E. S., Folkow, L. P., Mårtensson, P. E. and Blix, A. S. 1995. Food requirements of Northeast Atlantic
minke whales. pp. 307-317. In: A. S. Blix, L. Walløe and Ø. Ulltang (eds.) Whales, seals, fish and man,Development in marine Biology 4. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 720pp.
Ono, N., Yamaguchi, T., Ishikawa, H., Arakawa, M., Takahashi, N. Saikawa, T. and Shimada, T. 2009.
Morphological varieties of the Purkinje fiber network in mammalian hearts, as revealed by light andelectron microscopy. Arch Histol Cytol. 72(3), 139-149.
Sasaki, M., Amano, Y., Hayakawa, D., Tsubota, T., Ishikawa, H., Mogoe, T., Ohsumi, S., Tetsuka, M.,
Miyamoto, A., Fukui, Y., Budipitojo, T., and Kitamura, N. 2013. Structure and steroidogenesis of theplacenta in the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis). Journal of Reproduction andDevelopment 59 (2): 159-167.
Schlitzer, R. 2013. Ocean Data View. http://odv.awi.de.

70Annex 6. Difficulties in the implementation of the JARPAII in the first period
This annex summarizes some difficulties encountered during the implementation of the JARPAII in the first
period. Basically those difficulties resulted in smaller sample sizes than the originally planned/estimated, and insmaller areas covered by the surveys in most years. The strategy followed for the data analyses given thissituation is also explained in this Annex.
Original research plan and results of the implementation in the first period
Political decisions affecting sampling
The original research plan of the JARPAII specified three target species for the lethal component of the research,
the Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis), fin (B. physalus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae)
whales (Government of Japan, 2005). No humpback whales were sampled in the first period for political reasons.
The Government of Japan decided to suspend sampling of humpback whales in response to a request from the
Chair of the IWC in order to contribute to the creation of a positive atmosphere for the negotiations to resolve thestalemate in the IWC (i.e. the ‘Future of the IWC’ process) that were initiated at the 2007 Annual Meeting of theCommission.
Sabotage activities by a NGO (Sea Shepherd Conservation Society-SS) affecting sampling and geographicalcoverage (see details in: http://www.icrwhale.org/gpandsea.html)
In the case of Antarctic minke and fin whales, the numbers of samples obtained in most years during the firstphase were significantly smaller than originally planned. This was due mainly to the continued violent sabotage
activities by anti-whaling non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which substantially limited the capacity ofsampling in most of the surveys of the JARPAII in this first period. Disturbances from anti-whaling SS resulted
not only in smaller sample sizes but also in diminished temporal/spatial sampling coverage in most of the years(see details in SC/F14/J2).
The sabotage activities affected non-lethal research activities of the JARPAII as well. Dedicated sighting surveys
aimed to obtain data for abundance estimate of whales were also severely restricted due to SS’s sabotage
activities and several areas were uncovered by the surveys (see details in SC/F14/J2).
Also due to the sabotage activities of the SS, the planned survey of prey species (krill) using echo sounderequipped vessel and sampling by IKMT could not be carried out as originally planed. As a result, complete data
sets were obtained for only two surveys in the first period, and no prey surveys were conducted from the 2009/10
season (see details in SC/F14/J2).
The appendix shows how the sabotage activities by SS increased through the years, qualitatively andquantitatively, and how this affected the number of Antarctic minke and fin whale sampled. There is arelationship between the increase in sabotage activities and the number of samples obtained. The appendix also
shows the percentage of the original surveys plan by the dedicated sighting vessels (SVs) and sighting sampling
vessels (SSVs) that were completed. Both were markedly affected by the sabotage activities.
With regards the sighting surveys of the JARPAII, the IWC SC expressed ‘regret that such actions (of violenceby SS) had prevented the sighting survey from being conducted as planned’, and noted that ‘following the endof the IDCR/SOWER programme in 2009, these (JARPA II) surveys now provide the only dedicated cetaceansighting data in this region and are extremely valuable to the work of the Committee’ (IWC, 2012a).
Other reasons affecting sampling
A fire onboard the research base vessel Nishin Maru during the 2006/07 survey hampered the sampling in thatparticular survey in addition to the sabotage activities by SS (see also SC/F14/J2).
In the case of the fin whale an additional logistical reason (i.e. limitation of Nishin Maru facility to pull up larger
animals onboard) also explains in part the smaller sample size of this species obtained in comparison to theoriginal research plan (see also SC/F14/J2).
Finally it should also be noted that some samples obtained by the JARPAII in the first period were lost as aconsequence of the earthquake and tsunami that affected Japan in March 2011. This affected particularly samples
collected for pollutant, reproductive (females) and genetic analyses. The status of the JARPAII data and samples
after the 2011 tsunami was given in IWC (2012b) and the status of each of the JARPAII surveys in the period(2005/06-2010/11) is shown in SC/F14/J2.

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Principle for data analyses
Because of the reasons explained above no humpback whales were sampled and the resulting number ofAntarctic minke and fin whale samples obtained in the first JARPAII period was substantially less than theplanned/estimated numbers (Table 1).
Table 1. Planned and actual (in parenthesis) numbers of Antarctic minke and fin whale samples in the first period of the
JARPAII, by season and stock.

SeasonAntarctic minke whale
I-Stock
P-Stock

2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/102010/11850 (853)
850 (551)
850 (506)

850 (505)
850 (679)
850 (170)

Indian Stock
10 (10)50 (0)
50 (1)* One of these three whales could not be loaded into the research baseFin whale
Western South
Pacific Stock
10 (3)*
50 (1)
50 (2)

Furthermore the planned number of samples to be taken in the transition area (130ºE-175ºE) (Annex 5) for theaim of studying yearly change in mixing proportion of I and P stock Antarctic minke whale was 300(Government of Japan, 2005). For the reasons explained above the actual number of samples obtained in the first
period in the transition area was substantially lower (Table 2).
Table 2. Planned and actual number of samples of Antarctic minke whales in the transition area.

Season2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/102010/11

Transition area (130ºE-175ºE)
Planned number of samples
Actual number of samples
300
150
300
138
300
87
300
193
300
158
300
10

Because the number of samples of Antarctic minke whale was less than the planned/estimated number, areconsideration of the data analysis principle for Objective 1 of the JARPAII (yearly monitoring of biologicalparameters) was made. However, two time periods were taken into consideration in the analyses, as stated in theoriginal research plan. First, for the key parameters (age at sexual maturity, pregnancy rate and blubber
thickness) the trend analysis was made only for the first period of the JARPAII (six years, three points for eachstock), although this analysis was not always informative probably due to the smaller sample sizes obtained.
Consequently the analyses on yearly trends in most of biological parameters under the first objective were madefor combined data from the JARPAII (six years) and the JARPA (18 years). The detection power of significant
changes in the first period of the JARPAII (six years) could not be sufficient because the sample size estimatedin the original plan were not attained, while yearly trends in a longer period (24 years from 1987/88 to 2010/11)
can be detected with smaller sample size.
A new model for mixing proportion analysis of Antarctic minke whale stocks in the transition area wasdeveloped (Kitakado et al., 2012). It is more complex than that used in the estimation of sample size in thetransition area in 2005.
The number of samples from fin whales sampled was not large enough for estimating yearly trend in biologicalparameters. However new biological, feeding habits, pollutant and stock structure information from fin whales
obtained in the JARPAII was summarized in four documents so that those data can be used in future analyses oflarger data sets.
Comprehensive data sets for krill abundance were obtained only for two seasons. Comparability of the estimate
procedure between the JARPA and the JARPAII was difficult and as a result calculation of the yearly trend in
this parameter was not possible. However the JARPAII estimates obtained for Area IV were used as input data inthe ecosystem model. As explained above, the yearly trend for pollutant levels was not possible in the first periodof the JARPAII. However the available data were examined to update the study of pollutants and environmentthat was started in the JARPA.

72

There were significant geographical gaps during the JARPAII sighting surveys in the first period. Several
adjustments and interpolations were made in order to get estimates of abundance and abundance trends.
Biological data from humpback and fin whales e.g. prey consumption, had been considered for the developmentof ecosystem models. However no humpback and only a limited number of fin whales were sampled by the
JARPA II. For the development of ecosystem models, data that the JARPAII has collected from these two
species by non-lethal methods, e.g. abundance and abundance trends from sighting data were used. Though thelethal data from humpback and fin whales would not be used immediately in fits to the ecosystem models being
developed, monitoring qualitative changes in trends in demographic parameters through these lethal data would
provide a valuable method to check the predictions from the ecosystem models.

References
Government of Japan 2005. Plan for the second phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special
Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) -Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem and development of new
management objectives for whale resources. Paper SC/57/O1 presented to the IWC Scientific Committee,
June 2005 (unpublished). 99pp.
International Whaling Commission 2012a. Report of the Scientific Committee. Annex G. Report of the SubCommittee on In-Depth Assessments. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.) 13: 175-191.
International Whaling Commission 2012b. Report of the Scientific Committee. Annex P1. Effect of the March
11th earthquake and tsunami on JARPAII/JARPNII data and samples. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.)
13: 308-309.
Kitakado, T., Schweder, T., Kanda, N., Pastene, L. and Walloe, L. 2012. Progress report on the estimation of
longitudinal mixing proportions for the Antarctic minke whales using genetic and morphometricmeasurements. Paper SC/64/IA4 presented to IWC Scientific Committee, June 2012 (unpublished). 13pp.

73

Appendix: Summary of a NGO (Sea Shepherd Conservation Society)’s sabotage activities during the JARPAII surveys 2005/06-2010-2011*1
Research
Days

Year

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Catch
Number
M: minke
F:fin

M:853
F:10

M:505
F:3

M:551
F:0

GR: Gross
Research
Days
IN:Interrupted
Days
NR: NetResearchDays

GR: 108
IN: 9
NR: 99

GR: 76
IN: 13
NR: 63

GR: 101
IN: 31
NR: 70Research Vessels
RB: Research base
SV: Dedicatedsighting survey
SSV: Sighting andsampling vessels

1 RB
2 SVs
3 SSVsTotal: 6 vessels

1 RB
2 SVs
3 SSVsTotal: 6 vessels

1 RB
2 SVs
3 SSVsTotal: 6 vessels

SS Sabotage ships(maximum speed
and equipment
onboard)
FM: Farley
Mowat
RH: Robert
Hunter
SI: Steve Irwin
BB: Bob Barker
G: Gojira
BRB: Bridgit
BardotFM (10 knot, 2
Rigid Inflatable
Boat (RIB), 1
jetski, 1 heli)

RH (15.5 knot),FM (10 knot, 2
RIB, 1 heli)

SI (15.5 knot, 2
RIB, 1 heli)

SS weapons/strategies(newly introduced ones highlighted in red)* deploy propeller entanglement device* attack to a fuel tanker using a structure called"can opener"* deploy propeller entanglement device* throw butyric acid containing glass bottles
and smoke bombs by hand* launch life line rocket* collide with a research vessel* deploy propeller entanglement device* throw a number of projectiles (butyric acidcontaining glass bottles and chemical powder
packet)* two SS activists boarded on a research vessel

74

Percentage
surveyed by
SV (of theoriginalplan)*2

Percentage
surveyed by
SSV (of theoriginalplan)*2

82

81

74

67

100

72

Note

* 1st year of feasibility study (850+/-10%
minke and 10 fin planned)* 9-day interruption for ensuring refueling* 2nd year of feasibility study (850+/-10%
minke and 10 fin planned)* 3-day interruption by SS activities* 10-day interruption for fire accident* then the survey was discontinued because
research equipments were damaged* 30-day interruption by SS activities* 1-day interruption for rescue activity* Australian patrol ship Oceanic Viking
stalked Research Base Vessel for 22 days
* 1 crew and 2 coastguard officer were
injured by acid bottles

2008/09

2009/10

M:679
F:1

M:506
F:1

GR: 103
IN: 11
NR: 92

GR: 97
IN: 31
NR: 66

1 RV
2 SVs
3 SSVsTotal: 6 vessels

1 RB
2 SVs
2 SSVsTotal: 5 vessels

SI (15.5 knot, 2
RIB, 1 heli)

SI (15.5 knot, 2
RIB, 1 heli)
BB (16 knot, 1
RIB)
AG (40 knot, 1
jetski): damagedby collision* deploy propeller entanglement device (withfloats)* throw a number of projectiles (butyric acidcontaining glass bottles, paint containing bottles
and chemical powder packet)* launch life line rocket* launch rocket signal* collide with research vessels* deploy propeller entanglement device (withiron pipe enhancement)* shoot butyric acid containing glass bottles andpaint containing bottles by launcher andslingshot launcher* irradiate laser beam
* collide with research vessel* launch rocket signal* an SS activist cut the protective net andboarded a research vessel

75

100

46

26

25

* 11-day interruption by SS activities* 31-day interruption by SS activities* AG collided with a research vessel and it
is damaged, then AG was abandoned by SS* three crew were injured by butyric acid0

2010/11

M:170
F:2

GR: 52
IN: 21
NR: 31

1 RB
1 SVs
2 SSVsTotal: 4 vessels

SI (15.5 knot, 2
RIB, 1 heli)
BB (16 knot, 2
RIB)
G (24 knot)* deploy propeller entanglement device (with ironpipe enhancement)* hand-throw and shoot a number of projectiles(butyric acid containing glass bottles, paintcontaining bottles, smoke bombs, chemical
powder packet and incendiary devices) bylauncher, and slingshot launcher* attach propeller entanglement device tobroadside of research vessels* shoot paint ball ammo by machine airgun* irradiate laser beam
* launch rocket signal* balloons to detect research vessels

81* 21 days interruption by SS activities* research vessels were in danger of fire
because of incendiary device used by SS* a research vessel sent mayday call whenits propeller was damaged by prop fouler
thrown by SS and god cripped for a while* withdrew research vessels earlier thanplanned (Feb 18)*1 Apart from the SS sabotage activities, vessels from another organization (Greenpeace) intervened in 2005/06, 2006/07 and 2007/08 affecting the research activities.
*2 Those figures refer to the percentage surveyed of the whole original planned area. Those figures however do not reflect the survey intensity in the area (e.g. actual numberof tracklines designed/covered). For example in the 2010/11 season the SSV covered 81% of the original area however the actual number of tracklines was very limited (seedetails in SC/F14/J2).

76