Evaluation Summary
1. Outline of the ProjectCountry: Indonesia
Project Title: Demonstration Study on Carbon Fixing Forest Management in Indonesia
Issue/Sector: Forest conservation
Cooperation Scheme: Technical Cooperation Project
Division in Charge: Forest and Nature Environment Conservation Team I, Group I,
Global Environment Department
Total Cost (FY2002 - FY2005): 267,177,000 yen
Period of Cooperation
8 January 2001 - 7 January 2006
(R/D): Concluded on 6 December 2000
Partner Country’s Implementing Organization(s): Forestry Research and Development
Agency (FORDA), Ministry of Forestry
Supporting Organization(s) in Japan: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries;
Forestry Agency
Related Cooperation:

1-1 Background to the Project
In Indonesia, conservation of tropical forests became an important policy issue,
especially after large-scale forest fires hit the country in recent years. It was even so inthe context of mitigating global warming. Meanwhile, the Third Conference of Parties
to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3) in 1997 established theClean Development Mechanism (CDM). As a result, Japanese businesses and otherorganizations were increasingly interested in afforestation/reforestation activities
abroad.
The problem was that there were only insufficient data on the absorption of carbon
dioxides (CO2) by forests. For afforestation and reforestation projects under the Clean
Development Mechanism (AR-COM) to take root, it was necessary to develop atechnique for accurately measuring the amount of carbon absorbed and stored by forests.
Application of charcoal to plantations was attracting attention as a silviculture techniquethat promotes environmental conservation and more efficient sequestration of CO2
through soil improvement.

These circumstances prompted the Indonesian government in March 2000 to ask Japanfor a demonstration study aimed at establishing a forest management technique thatmaximizes carbon sequestration as much as possible for CO2 emissions control byproducing charcoal and applying it to plantations in an integrated manner whileconserving the local environment. In response, JICA launched this demonstration
study under the JICA scheme of investment and financing for development in January
2001. Because this scheme was abolished, this study has been operated as a technicalcooperation project since February 2003.

1-2

Project Overview (based on PDMe Annex 1 of the Termination Evaluation)(1) Overall Goal
To enhance carbon sequestration and mitigation of global warming throughestablishment and management of plantations(2) Project Purpose
To establish new techniques and methodologies for carbon storing forest management
which are expected to promote and enhance foreign and domestic investments for tree
plantations(3) Outputs
Output 1: A technique for estimating the amount of carbon stored in plantation forests
will be developed.
Output 2: New technology for charcoal-applied plantations to maintain and enhancecarbon sequestration potential will be developed.
Output 3: More effective technology for charcoal production will be developed.
Output 4: Cost and revenue of CDM plantations will be estimated.
Output 5: Data and information necessary for potential CDM participants will be madeavailable.
(4) Inputs (until the time of evaluation)
Japanese side:
Long-term Experts: 9 person-assignments (4 at terminal evaluation)
Short-term Experts: 30 experts
Equipment: 258,679 US dollars
Local cost: 6,218*106 Rp (approx. 74,505,000 yen)
Trainees received: 11 persons
Indonesian side:
Counterparts: 16 person-assignments (8 at terminal evaluation)Purchase of equipment: NoneLand and facilities: Pilot plantations, the project office and related facilities,
experimental forests, etc.
Local cost: Not available• The C/P organization has a single budget item for each donor.
local cost of this Project only was not available.

Information on the2. Evaluation Team
Members of Evaluation Team
(Role/responsibility:Name Position)
Team Leader: Yukihide KATSUTA
Director, Group I, Global Environment
Department
AR-CDM Evaluation:
Tatsuya WATANABE Technical Officer, National Forest
Planning Division, Forestry Agency
Evaluation Planning:
Daisuke SAITO Group I, Global Environment Department
Evaluation Analysis:
Yasuyo HIROUCHI
Permanent Expert, International
Department Associates Ltd.
Period of Evaluation
6 - 17 September 2005
Type of Evaluation: Terminal Evaluation

3. Results of Evaluation
3-1

Objectives of Evaluation

The terminal evaluation of this Project, scheduled for completion by January 2006, has
two major objectives: (i) to review its achievements, the implementation process inaccordance with the JICA Guidelines for Project Evaluation and evaluate the Project inlight of the five criteria; and (ii) present recommendations and lessons learned for futureprojects.

3-2 Summary of Evaluation Results(1) Relevance
The Overall Goal is relevant to the needs of the Indonesian government and consistentwith its national policy. The importance of afforestation and reforestation projects
under the Clean Development Mechanism (AR-CDM) is stressed in the National
Strategy Study on CDM in Forestry Sector of 2003 and the Minister of Forestry’s
speech at a CDM workshop. The Project Purpose is relevant to the needs of potential
CDM participants.

Both the Overall Goal and the Project Purpose are consistent with Japan’s ODA policy
as they correspond to “global issues such as global warming and other environmentalproblems,” one of the four priority issues in the ODA Charter, and to “environmentalconservation,” one of the priority issues in the JICA Country Program for Indonesia.

(2) Effectiveness<Prospect of the Project Purpose being attained>
The Project will achieve its purpose by the end of the project period. Through theproject process, progress has been made in a number of aspects, including (i) thecollection and analysis of basic data on biomass, soil and financing, (ii) thedevelopment of a manual on AR-CDM, (iii) disclosure of the products of theseactivities, and (iv) the development of technology for charcoal-applied plantations andcharcoal production techniques. Because of these developments, the Outputs will beachieved by the end of the Project, including Output 5: Data and information necessary
for potential CDM participants will be made available.
<Degree of contribution of the Outputs to the achievement of the Project Purpose>
Outputs 1, 4, and 5 directly contribute to the achievement of the Project Purpose
because they will directly or indirectly provide potential CDM participants with accessto necessary and useful information. Outputs 2 and 3 do not directly contribute to theattainment of the Project Purpose now that an unexpected change occurred in theImportant Assumptions in the PDM. Still, they have positive effects. The
unexpected change is that in the modalities of AR-CDM (framework of negotiations), it
was decided not to regard production and application of charcoal as a carbon sink.

(3) Efficiency
The project inputs are largely appropriate. The achievement on the Outputs isappropriate in light of the project inputs and activities.
(A) Inputs<Japanese side>a. Expert assignment (timing, the number of experts, and their capacity)
The expert assignment was generally appropriate. As long as long-term experts, there
was some room for improvement. Their replacement concentrated at one point in theproject period. Some of them had to deal with activities that were outside of theirexpertise.
Nevertheless, the long-term experts overcame these difficulties incooperation with other stakeholders. The assignment of short-term experts wasappropriate in terms of timing, technical capacity, and experience, although a longer
assignment duration would have proved more efficient.
b. CP training in JapanThe contribution of the counterpart (C/P) training in Japan to the Project was moderate.
The training was appropriate as a whole. The counterparts took advantage of what
they had learned in Japan in their project activities. However, the group training inwhich some C/Ps participated were too general in its content to suit their needs.
c. Equipment (quantity, quality, and timing)
The equipment inputs were appropriate and put to effective use in making achievementsin the Project. Yet, the NC analyzer often broke down due to changes in voltage,
making it necessary to contract out some analyzing activities.
d. Local cost
Funds from Japan were appropriately used.
portion of the local cost.

Japan also took over the Indonesian<Indonesia side>a. Counterparts
Although the assignment of counterparts was appropriate as a whole, there was someroom for improvement. For example, a few C/Ps were assigned some time after therelevant expert was assigned from Japan. A few project activities were not attended byC/Ps. Some C/Ps were concurrently engaged in other activities as well and could notconcentrate on one project activity on a full time basis. The project manager wasreplaced more than a few times.
b. Land and facilities
The provision of land and facilities was largely appropriate in terms of quality andtiming, although the construction of the garage was a little behind schedule. The
project office experienced an unstable power supply, suspending some project activities.
The Indonesia side could have done more to maintain the security of the experimentalsites. Japan financed this security maintenance.
(B) Coordination with relevant projects
The Project received data on stands from the JICA’s Small-scaled Forest Plantation
Using Fast-growing Tree Species Project in Malaysia. It has also exchanged
information with other JICA projects in Indonesia in the sector of forest and naturalenvironmental conservation. Information was also exchanged with other donors,
namely ADB and ACIAR on CDM projects.

(C) Contributing and inhibiting factors for the achievement of the Outputs
Contracting out some activities to NGOs, universities, and research institutions inIndonesia and exchanging information with them has contributed to the achievement ofthe Outputs.

(4) Impact<At the Overall Goal level>
The Evaluation Team considers the Overall Goal of the Project too ambitious; it cannot
be achieved in 3-5 years from the completion of the Project. To achieve it, thetechniques developed in the Project should be put to effective use in the first place.
Among the conditions described in the Important Assumptions for the Overall Goal in
the PDM, those concerning the modalities of AR-CDM and the CDM policy ofIndonesia will be met as no major change to them occurred. It remains to be seen,
however, whether the condition that a carbon market where a substantial amount ofcredit obtained in AR-CDM (t-CER and i-CER) was exchanged at reasonable prices
will emerge. Unless this condition is met, attaining the Overall Goal will be difficult.
<At other levels>
The Project has had no negative effects to date. The positive effects include theimproved technical skills of the C/Ps and other project stakeholders, and thedevelopment of a network involving the C/Ps and Japanese experts. The achievementof Outputs 2 and 3 has provided technical and economic benefits to local NGOs andcharcoal producers.
Potentially positive effectives may include the use of the results of soil carbon
measurement in the Project for many AR-COM projects in the tropics, and the effective
use of the NC analyzer.

(5) Sustainability
In relation to sustainability, the technical skills of the C/Ps have improved so as tomanage the project outputs on their own. The Evaluation Team has confirmed that theorganizational structure is being developed for maintaining and building on the project
outputs. For example, FORDA has a research plan associated with CDM and isdeveloping its own database. At the financial level, the Indonesian government has
not provided sufficient allocations to the Project. Although the government says itplans to do so in the future, it is unclear this plan will be fully delivered at all.

3-3Implementation process

Generally, the Project has been implemented according to plan. All the project
activities will be completed by the end of the Project. The appropriate implementationof the Project has been supported by close cooperation between the Japanese experts
and the C/Ps, as highlighted by a quarterly debriefing and the Joint Coordinating
Committee (JCC). The key features monitored by JICA include the establishment of a
supporting committee in Japan, and the change in scheme from a demonstration study toa technical cooperation project. The scheme change had a few problems, such as an
insufficient procedure of operation (PO), and the failure to perform the mid-term survey.
These problems made information sharing among the stakeholders difficult.

3-4Conclusion

In sum, the Project has been appropriately managed in a way to respond flexibly tochanges in the Important Assumptions and the project process. The Evaluation Teamconcludes that both the Outputs and the Project Purpose will be accomplished by thecompletion of the Project.

3-5

Recommendations (specific solutions, suggestions and advice for the Project)

The recommendations based on the findings of the terminal evaluation have been
submitted to the Ministry of Forestry. They can be summarized as follows:<Measures to be taken by the project completion>(1) Appropriately implement and complete the project activities(2) Secure the necessary budget for the Indonesian counterparts(3) Assign counterparts specializing in database-related techniques(4) Maintain the NC analyzer properly and build an appropriate maintenance system(5) Prepare institutional and financial arrangements for the post-project phase(6) Revise the Overall Goal in the Project Design Matrix (PDM) and ensure project
management based on the revised PDM<Measures to be taken after the project completion>(1) Appropriately manage the experimental sites that have been constructed in theProject(2) Continue the measurement and analysis of carbon sequestration(3) Manage and update the data and the database(4) Provide information to potential CDM participants(5) Make institutional and financial arrangements for the post-project activities(6) Secure the right of the Japanese government to use the products of the Project3-6 Lessons Learned (especially those that provide information that is useful for
identifying/formulating, implementing, and administering similar projects)(1) It is necessary to clearly define the ownership of the project and hold sufficientconsultations with the partner country government for appropriate project management.
(2) Local resources should be put to effective use for project activities.
(3) Proper project management requires an appropriate monitoring framework andinformation sharing that takes advantage of such management tools as PDM and PO.

3-7Follow-up Status

The Indonesia Ministry of Forestry has requested the following activities.
under consultation.
(1) Inputting data into the database(2) Performing charcoal experiments(3) Bearing the cost of internet providing services(4) Continuing the data measurement in the experimental forests

They are