Status	  of	  Nuclear	  Power	  in	  Japan	
September	  29,	  2014	  	  Osaka	  University	  Akira	  Yamaguchi	  yamaguchi@see.eng.osaka-­‐u.ac.jp	

1	

NaIonal	  Security	  in	  Energy	  (3E+S)	
•Energy	  security	  – Stable	  energy	  supply	  to	  every	  member	  of	  country	  •Economic	  growth	  and	  stability	  – Energy	  supply	  for	  home	  and	  industry	  with	  reasonable	  price	  •Environmental	  concern	  – Global	  warming	  and	  environmental	  poluIon	  •Safety	  – NoIon	  of	  safety	  -­‐	  Nuclear	  risk?	  
– Energy	  risk,	  economical	  risk,	  global	  warming	  risk,	  geopoliIcal	  risk,	  etc.	  

•Other	  concerns	  – GeopoliIcal	  situaIon	  (spaIal	  perspecIve)	  • Uneven	  distribuIon	  of	  resources,	  Defense	  of	  Middle	  East	  sea	  lanes	  – Sustainability	  (long	  term	  perspecIve)	  • Fuel	  reprocessing	  and	  FBR	  cycle	  2	

Oil	  Shock	  (1973	  and	  1979)	

3	  Japanese	  Energy	  Self-­‐suﬃciency	
エネルギー自給率	
（原子力含む）	

エネルギー自給率	

(70%)	  (60%)	  Oil	  shock	  (1973	  and	  1979)	

(50%)	  (40%)	  Energy	  Self-­‐suﬃciency	  Nuclear	  energy	  included	(30%)	  (20%)	  (10%)	  (0%)	  0	  Energy	  Self-­‐
suﬃciency	
1	  2	  3	  4	  5	  6	  7	  1960	  	  	  	  	  1970	  	  	  	  	  1980	  	  	  	  	  1990	  	  	  	  2000	  	  	  	  	  2005	  	  	  	  	  2010	  	8	  4	

Energy	  Performance	  Index	  in	  Japan	Controllable	  risk	

Uncontrollable	  risk	
Self	  suﬃciency	

ResisIbility	  to	  supply	  disrupIon	

Exporters	

Choke	  point	

GDP	  speciﬁc	  energy	  consumpIon	
Electric	  power	  outage	

White	  Book	  on	  Energy	  2010,	  METI	Energy	  source	
5	Japan	

Energy	  Performance	  Index	  Circled	  if	  Score	  >	  5	 France	Korea	

UK	

Germany	USA	

China	Controllable	  risk	
Uncontrollable	  risk	

White	  Book	  on	  Energy	  2010,	  METI	

6	  Energy	  Security:	  Self-­‐suﬃciency	  of	  Primary	  Comparisonof Energy
Self-Sufficiency Rates
Energy	  in	  OECD	  Clowestountries	
Japan'senergy self-sufficiency
is thein the world
100
Indonesia Russian Federation (42%)

1.	  Norway	  Brazil (0.02%)
China (0.4%)
2.	  Australia	  753.	  Canada	  India (0.07%)

SAFEEnergy Self-Sufficiency (%)

United States (9.8%)

8.	  USA	  CAUTIO
N

Nuclear	

United Kingdom (9.5%)

14.	  UK	   5015.	  France	  France (44%)

20.	  Germany	  Others	

Germany (8.4%)

27.	  Spain	  DA
N
G
E
R

25

Greece30.	  Korea	  Spain (12.8%)
South Korea (15.3%)

Italy

33.	  	  	  Japan	  Japan (0.6%)0034.	  	  	  Luxemburg	  10,000

20,00030,000
GNI per capita

40,00050,00060,000Source 䠖 IEA Energy Balance(2013) , the World Bank

METI,	  Advisory	  Commigee	  on	  Energy	  and	  Natural	  Resources,	  Nuclear	  Energy	  Subcommigee	  #3,	  July	  23	  2014	

57	

Cost	  EsImate	  Commigee	  (Dec.	  2011)	  Every	  cost	  included	
• Nuclear:8.9JPY/kWh,	  0.1JPY/kWh/1TJPY	  for	  1F	  clearing	  cost	

Accident	  risk	  cost	

PoliIcal	  cost	
Fuel	  cycle	  cost	Backﬁt	  cost	 Nuclear 	  LNG	  	  Wind	  Oil 	  	  M-­‐solar 	  	  	  Hydro	  	  	  Coal	  	  Geo 	  	  	  	  Wind(Ocean)	  	  	  	  Solar 	  Gas(co-­‐generaIon)
Capital	  cost		  	METI,	  Advisory	  Commigee	  on	  Energy	  and	  Natural	  Resources,	  Nuclear	  Energy	  Subcommigee	  #3,	  July	  23	  2014	

8	䠍䠊䠄䠏䠅୍⯡㟁Ẽ஦ᴗ⪅䛻䜘䜛CO2᤼ฟᐇ⦼ 㟈⅏௨㝆䚸ཎⓎ௦᭰䛾䛯䜑䛾ⅆຊⓎ㟁䛾↏䛝ቑ䛧䛻䜘䛳䛶୍⯡㟁Ẽ஦ᴗ⪅䛻䜘䜛CO2᤼ฟ㔞䛜ቑຍ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹

CO2	  Emission	  and	  Electricity	  Energy	  Mix	䕿Ⓨ㟁㟁ຊ㔞䛾㟁※ᵓᡂ䛾᥎⛣䛸୍⯡㟁Ẽ஦ᴗ⪅䛻䜘䜛CO2᤼ฟᐇ⦼
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%

Million-­‐ton	  CO2	㻔ⓒ୓㼠㻙㻯㻻㻞㻕
486 500
439
395

JFY	2008ᖺᗘ

374353

JFY	2009ᖺᗘ

JFY	2010ᖺᗘ

JFY	2011ᖺᗘ

JFY	2012ᖺᗘ

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
500᪂䜶䝛➼New	ᥭỈ
Pumped-­‐Storage	୍⯡ỈຊHydropower	
Ⓨ㟁㟁ຊཎᏊຊ
Nuclear	 㔞䛾ᵓᡂẚ䠄ᕥ㍈䠅▼Ἔ➼Oil	㹊㹌㹅
LNG	
▼ⅣCoal	CO2᤼ฟᐇ⦼䠄ྑ㍈䠅
CO2	  Emission	䛆ฟᡤ䛇㈨※䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊ᗇ䛂㟁※㛤Ⓨ䛾ᴫせ䛃䚸䛂㟁ຊ౪⤥ィ⏬䛃䜢䜒䛸䛻సᡂ䕿㟁※ู䛾᤼ฟಀᩘCO2	  Emission	  Coeﬃcient	
▼Ⅳⅆຊ

Coal	

LNGⅆຊ

LNG	

▼Ἔⅆຊ

Oil	

0.82

0.400.66ཎᏊຊỈຊ➼෌䜶䝛
Renewable	
Nuclear	0䠄༢఩䠖kg-CO2/kWh䚸Ⓨ㟁➃䠅

METI,	  Advisory	  Commigee	  on	  Energy	  and	  Natural	  Resources,	  Nuclear	  Energy	  Subcommigee	  #3,	  July	  23	  2014	0䛆ฟᡤ䛇㟁୰◊㈨ᩱ䜘䜚9	5

Inﬂuence	  of	  NPP	  Outage	• Dependence	  on	  Fossil	  Fuel	  import	  increase	  – 88%	  of	  total	  power	  generaIon	  (in	  2013)	  – Higher	  than	  the	  ﬁrst	  oil	  shock	  (76%)	  	• Dependence	  on	  Middle	  East	  – Oil	  (83%),	  LNG	  (30%)	  	• Renewable	  energy	  introducIon	  (2.2%)	  costs	  $6.5B	  • AddiIonal	  fuel	  import	  costs	  $36B	
• Electricity	  cost	  increased	  by	  20%	  	  • CO2	  Emission	  increased	  by	  9%	  – 110M-­‐ton	  (9%	  of	  annual	  emission	  in	  2010)	  	  10	Nuclear	  Regulatory	  Authority	• The	  newly	  established	  NRA	  is	  now	  responsible	  to	  promote	  eﬀecIve	  and	  eﬃcient	  safety	  regulaIon,	  with	  a	  full	  recogniIon	  of	  internaIonal	  safety	  standards,	  maintaining	  an	  able	  team	  with	  right	  skill,	  experience,	  knowledge	  and	  behavior	  • NRA’s	  mission*	  – To	  protect	  the	  general	  public	  and	  the	  environment	  through	  rigorous	  and	  reliable	  regulaIons	  of	  nuclear	  acIviIes.	  

• The	  ﬁve	  principles	  of	  good	  regulaIon*	  – Independent	  Decision	  Making	  – EﬀecIve	  AcIons	  – Open	  and	  Transparent	  OrganizaIon	  – Improvement	  and	  Commitment	  – Emergency	  Response	  • Thereby	  NRA	  enhances	  conﬁdence	  and	  trust	  of	  the	  public	  *	  hgps://www.nsr.go.jp/english/e_nra/idea.html	

11	

Timeline,	  2011-­‐Present	•
•••
•••
•
•

Mar	  11,	  2011 	  Fukushima	  Daiichi	  Accident	  Mar	  23,	  2011 	  Emergency	  back-­‐ﬁt	  requirement	  by	  NISA	  Jul	  6,	  2011 	  Order	  of	  Stress	  Test	  for	  restart	  Mar	  2012	   	  Ohi-­‐3/4	  Stress	  test	  report	  approved	  by	  NISA	  and	  NSC	  Jul	  2012 	  	  Ohi-­‐3/4	  restart	  Sep.	  2012	   	  NRA	  established	  and	  no	  more	  use	  of	  the	  stress	  test	  Jul	  8,	  2013	   	  New	  RegulaIon	  Standards	  endorsed	  Sep.	  2013	  	  Ohi-­‐3/4	  Shutdown	  for	  periodical	  maintenance	  Sep.	  10,	  2014 	  Sendai	  1	  &	  2	  Permission	  for	  Change	  in	  Reactor	  InstallaIon	  – The	  applied	  design	  and	  safety	  features	  of	  Sendai	  NPS	  Units	  1	  and	  2	  were	  deemed	  to	  meet	  the	  NRA’s	  new	  regulatory	  requirements	  – This	  is	  a	  regulatory	  step	  to	  grant	  permission	  for	  the	  basic	  design	  	  – NRA	  will	  review	  the	  detailed	  design	  and	  construcIon	  and	  OperaIonal	  Safety	  Programs	  	  12	Current	  Status	  of	  ApplicaIon	  䠄ཧ⪃䠅᪥ᮏ䛾ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ䠄ᖹᡂ26ᖺ6᭶10᪥᫬Ⅼ䠅䠍䠊 ᖹᡂ26ᖺ6᭶10᪥⌧ᅾ䚸12ཎⓎ19ᇶ䛜᪂つไᇶ‽䜈䛾㐺ྜ☜ㄆ䜢ཎᏊຊつไጤဨ఍䛻⏦ㄳ୰䚹䠎䠊 ཎᏊຊつไጤဨ఍䛿䚸ᖹᡂ26ᖺ3᭶䚸ᚋ⥆䛾ᑂᰝ䛾ᶍ⠊䛸䛺䜛䜘䛖ඃඛⓗ䛻ᕝෆ1䞉2ྕᶵ䛾ᑂᰝ᭩᱌䜢సᡂ䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢Ỵᐃ䚹

20	  units	  (12PWRs	  and	  8	  BWRs)	  in	  13	  Sites	  	ᮾி㟁ຊओ᯽ᓮส⩚ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ

110

110

䠎䠔

䠎䠏

110

䠎䠌

110

110

136

136

䠍䠕

䠎䠐

䠍䠓

䠍䠒

໭㝣㟁ຊओᚿ㈡ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
54

121

䠎䠌䠔

8/12/2014	  ໭ᾏ㐨㟁ຊओἩⓎ㟁ᡤ
58(ᖹᡂ25ᖺ9᭶27᪥)

9/27/2013	  5891

䠎䠐 䠎䠏䠐

6/10/2014	  㟁※㛤Ⓨओ኱㛫Ⓨ㟁ᡤ138ᮾ໭㟁ຊओᮾ㏻ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
110(ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶8᪥)(ᖹᡂ26ᖺ6᭶10᪥)

䠔7/8/2013	  ᮾி㟁ຊओᮾ㏻ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
139᪥ᮏཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ओᩔ㈡Ⓨ㟁ᡤ
36116䠐䠐䠎䠓ᮾ໭㟁ຊओዪᕝཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ㛵す㟁ຊओ⨾὾Ⓨ㟁ᡤ

3450

83

䠐䠏䠐䠍

䠏䠓

52

83

83

䠎䠕䠍䠔

䠍䠎

12/27/2013	  (ᖹᡂ25ᖺ12᭶27᪥)㛵す㟁ຊओ኱㣤Ⓨ㟁ᡤ
118

118

118

118

䠏䠑䠏䠐

䠎䠎

䠎䠍

ᮾி㟁ຊओ⚟ᓥ➨୍ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ

7/8/2013	  46

78

78

78

78

110

(ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶8᪥)㛵す㟁ຊओ㧗὾Ⓨ㟁ᡤ
83

83

87

87

䠏䠕䠏䠔䠎䠕

䠎䠔ᮾி㟁ຊओ⚟ᓥ➨஧ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ

7/8/2013	  5/20/2014	  (ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶8᪥)᪥ᮏཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ओᮾᾏ➨୍࣭➨஧Ⓨ㟁ᡤ୰ᅜ㟁ຊओᓥ᰿ཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
46

82

137

1712/25/2013	  䠐䠌 䠎䠑(ᖹᡂ25ᖺ12᭶25᪥)䠏䠑(ᖹᡂ26ᖺ5᭶20᪥)஑ᕞ㟁ຊओ⋞ᾏཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
56

56

118118

䠏䠔

䠏䠏

䠎䠌

䠍䠒

୰㒊㟁ຊओ὾ᒸཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
54

7/12/2013	  (ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶12᪥)஑ᕞ㟁ຊओᕝෆཎᏊຊⓎ㟁ᡤ
8989

䠎䠕

䠎䠔

7/8/2013	  (ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶8᪥)

110ᅄᅜ㟁ຊओఀ᪉Ⓨ㟁ᡤ
57

䠏䠒

57

89

䠏䠎

䠍䠕

(ᖹᡂ25ᖺ7᭶8᪥)

7/8/2013	  84

110

114

138

䠎䠒

䠎䠌

䠕

2/14/2014	  (ᖹᡂ26ᖺ2᭶14᪥)

ฟຊつᶍ50୓㹩Wᮍ‶100୓㹩Wᮍ‶

100୓㹩W௨ୖ

110

110

110

110

䠏䠎

䠏䠌

䠎䠔

䠎䠒

䠖᪂つไᇶ‽䜈䛾㐺ྜ☜ㄆ⏦ㄳ䛧䛯⅔
䠄 䠅ෆ䛿⏦ㄳ᪥ͤ ྕᶵ䛾ୖ㒊䛾ᩘ್䛿㟁Ẽฟຊ(୓kW)䚸
ྕᶵෆ䛾ᩘ್䛿㐠㌿㛤ጞᚋ䛾⤒㐣ᖺᩘ䚹

BWR
PWR

ABWR

13	12

Strategic	  Energy	  Plan,	  April	  2014	
• Nuclear	  power	  is	  an	  important	  base-­‐load	  power	  source	  as	  a	  low	  carbon	  and	  quasi-­‐domesIc	  energy	  source,	  contribuIng	  to	  stability	  of	  energy	  supply-­‐demand	  structure,	  on	  the	  major	  premise	  of	  ensuring	  of	  its	  safety,	  because	  of	  the	  perspecIves:	  – Superiority	  in	  stability	  of	  energy	  supply	  and	  eﬃciency	  – Low	  and	  stable	  operaIonal	  cost,	  and	  – Free	  from	  GHG	  emissions	  during	  operaIon.	
14	Policy	  DirecIon	  -­‐	  Restart	
• On	  the	  premise	  that	  safety	  comes	  before	  everything	  else	  and	  that	  every	  possible	  eﬀort	  is	  made	  to	  resolve	  the	  people’s	  concerns,	  judgment	  as	  to	  whether	  nuclear	  power	  plants	  meet	  the	  new	  regulatory	  requirements	  will	  be	  let	  to	  the	  Nuclear	  RegulaIon	  Authority	  (NRA)	  and	  in	  case	  that	  the	  NRA	  conﬁrms	  the	  conformity	  of	  nuclear	  power	  plants	  with	  the	  new	  regulatory	  requirements	  ,which	  are	  of	  the	  most	  stringent	  level	  in	  the	  world,	  GOJ	  will	  follow	  NRA’s	  judgment	  and	  will	  proceed	  with	  the	  restart	  of	  the	  nuclear	  power	  plants.	  
In	  that	  case,	  GOJ	  will	  make	  best	  eﬀorts	  to	  obtain	  the	  understanding	  and	  cooperaIon	  of	  the	  host	  municipaliIes	  and	  other	  relevant	  parIes.	  	  15	Policy	  DirecIon	  –	  Energy	  Best	  Mix	• Dependency	  on	  nuclear	  power	  generaIon	  will	  be	  lowered	  to	  the	  extent	  possible	  by	  energy	  saving	  and	  introducing	  renewable	  energy	  as	  well	  as	  improving	  the	  eﬃciency	  of	  thermal	  power	  generaIon,	  etc.	  Under	  this	  policy,	  GOJ	  will	  carefully	  examine	  a	  volume	  of	  electricity	  to	  be	  secured	  by	  nuclear	  power	  generaIon,	  taking	  Japan’s	  energy	  constraints	  into	  consideraIon,	  from	  the	  viewpoint	  of	  stable	  energy	  supply,	  cost	  reducIon,	  global	  warming	  and	  maintaining	  nuclear	  technologies	  and	  human	  resources.	  	  
16	Deadlock:	  Goal	  and	  Process	  Atomic	  Energy	  Act	  (June	  2013)	  and	  Strategic	  Energy	  Plan	  (April	  2014)	
Secure	  Energy	  Resources	  Academic	  Advance	  and	  Industry	  Development	  Welfare	  of	  human	  society	  and	  improvement	  of	  living	  level	  of	  public	

Use	  Nuclear	

Safety	  goal	  Consensus	  Dialogue	

Acceptable	  Risk	  Level	

Reliability	  of	  RegulaIon	

Restart	  NPP	

Nuclear	  Energy	  Policy	

17	

Deadlock:	  Goal	  and	  Process	  Atomic	  Energy	  Act	  (June	  2013)	  and	  Strategic	  Energy	  Plan	  (April	  2014)	
Process	Secure	  Energy	  Resources	  Academic	  Advance	  and	  Industry	  Development	  Welfare	  of	  human	  society	  and	  improvement	  of	  living	  level	  of	  public	
Goals	

Use	  Nuclear	

Safety	  goal	  Consensus	  Dialogue	

Acceptable	  Risk	  Level	

Reliability	  of	  Results	 RegulaIon	

Restart	  NPP	

Nuclear	  Energy	  Policy	

18	

Fukushima	  Dai-­‐ichi	  Accident	  Scenario	  and	  Chance	  of	  Recovery	  (Avoidance	  of	  Large	  FP	  Release:	  Crisis)	
Reactor
Scram

Off-site
DC Power
Power

Coolimg
ReactorResidual
Emergenc
AC Power(HighDepressur Heaty DG
Recoverypressure)i-zation
RemovalRecovery
Coldof Heat
Shutdown
Sink

CV#ven'ng

Tsunami	  knowledge	

AlternaIve	  DG	 RCIC	  operaIon	  HPCI	  operaIon	   

CV	  Vent	   Learn	  Blayais	  scenario	

SBO	  rule	  	   AlternaIve	  cooling	
Explosion	  14th,	  11:01	 Unit	  3	Unit	  2	Unit	  1	Explosion,	  12th,	  15:36	

AlternaIve	  DG	IC	  operaIon	
AC	  power	  CV	  vent	
AlternaIve	  Cooling	
recovery	
Early	  Vent	

19	

Crossroad	  Exists	  Everywhere,	  Every	  Stage	  of	  Scenario	
• Knowledge	  and	  experience	  level	  – OperaIonal	  experience	  	  – Contemporary	  research/knowledge	  • Safety	  design	  level	  – Review	  and	  revise	  of	  postulated	  event	  set	  and	  design	  basis	  event	  (Adequacy	  of	  current	  design	  perspecIve)	  • Accident	  management	  level	  – Robust,	  independent,	  resilient,	  credible	  measures	  • Emergency	  readiness	  level	  – Risk-­‐reducIon	  or	  crisis	  prevenIon	  (oﬀ-­‐site	  response)	  • Risk-­‐informed	  defense-­‐in-­‐depth	  protecIon	  20	Conclusions	• NaIonal	  Security	  	  in	  Energy	  and	  Nuclear	  RegulaIon	  – 3E+S	  is	  an	  opImizaIon	  problem	  – NRA	  has	  been	  established	  and	  missions	  and	  principles	  have	  been	  deﬁned	  	  • Deadlock	  ater	  Fukushima	  Daiichi	  Accident	  – We	  need	  to	  keep	  the	  lessons	  and	  recommendaIons	  in	  mind	  – Goal,	  process	  and	  results	  are	  in	  disorder	  • Goal:	  Comes	  ﬁrst	  – 3E:	  Energy	  Security,	  Economy	  and	  Environment	  (Goal)	  – S:	  Safety	  goal	  is	  the	  ﬁnal	  piece	  of	  the	  puzzle	  • If	  we	  understand	  “failure-­‐free”	  does	  not	  mean	  “ensuring	  safety”,	  – Results	  such	  as	  trust	  of	  regulaIon	  and	  NPP	  restart	  shall	  follow	  21