Presentation (Outline)
MG. Pan Zhenqiang (retired), China Reform Forum
On “Need for Changes in Nuclear Doctrines of Nuclear Weapons States”
At the first session
The 3rd Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA) Workshop
Moscow, May 31, 2018
1. This workshop is supposed to focus on the responsibility and role of nuclear powers
in promoting international peace and security. I appreciate the wisdom of theorganizing hosts for choosing this topic as the central theme of our discussion.
Countries, big or small, nuclear or non-nuclear, have equal rights to maintaininternational peace and security. But unmistakably, leading powers, who all
happen to be the nuclear weapon powers, have a greater commitment in that respect.
Their special obligations also include the need to change their nuclear doctrines so
as to give new momentum to the progress of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.
2. Today, the world has seen rapid development of multipolarity, globalization, andscientific and technological advancement. Although these powerful trends helped
major powers more inderdependent for their security and development, they havealso brought about a shift of force balance worldwide, and change of the world
security structure. In this process, major powers are readjusting their threat
perceptions, security strategies, and force deployments in an attempt to stand at thehigh ground in the security architechure in the future. The world enters into atransitional period, characterized with greater uncertainty and chaos. Often,uncertainty and chaos breed suspicion, exaggerated fear, misguided judgement, andover-reaction.
3. Against the backdrop, nuclear weapons seem to come back again as a definitiveelement in the world situation. When the Cold War ended in early 1990s, people
had a wish that nuclear weapons may recede as the central piece in affecting theworld situation. It didn’t happen. Instead, nuclear weapons are now increasingly
tangled with the major power competition, and regional tensions than ever before.
4. Evidently, nuclear weapan states have a special role and responsibility in arresting
this worrying prospect. But to do so, they have to start with a new vision about
the role of nuclear weapons, getting rid of the inertia of the Cold War mentality, andthe past obsolete nuclear thinking. They must realize that possessing nuclear
weapons may serve them for the short-term advantages, but in a long run, would
also undermine their own interests, let aone the world peace and security.

5. Once a consensus is built up on the new vision on nuclear weaons, change of nuclear
doctrines in the security strategies of nuclear weapon states would be a logic
outcome, which may lead further concrete steps towards the progress of nuclear
disarmament and non-porliferation.
6. No one expects that nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation can be done by onestroke. There must be a step-by-step way in line with the current situation. The
success of this incremental approach, however, must be built, first of all, on thedetermination of the nuclear weapon states to part with their ambivalence towards
nuclear weapons. It’s easier said than done. What is needed of them, andparticularly of leaders of these countries, are a strategic insight, political courage,
and perhaps also the art of diplomatic skills.