China: Opportunity and challenge for the US
Political and strategic issues

Glocom Platform‐TUJTokyo, 24 April 2008

Robert DujarricDirector, Institute of Contemporary Japanese Studies
Temple University Japan (TUJ), Tokyo
robertdujarric@gmail.com
www.tuj.ac.jp/icjs

Fundamental question about China for the US• What are China’s goals?
Several possible answers:
Status quo – its primary goal is domestic stability/growth ÎPositive sum economic game, politically marginal player in theinternational system
Hegemony – It wants to dominate Asia Î New Cold War
Stakeholder – It wants a growing influence in theinternational system but accepts most of its rules ÎStakeholder

China as a status‐quo power• Assumption: Chinese leadership’s overriding
concern is domestic stability/survival• Implications for US policy:
As long as China’s interests are notthreatened, Beijing will favor passivity ininternational affairs
The US‐Japan alliance should not look like amenace to China

China as expansionist power• Assumption: China wants to be a regionalhegemon, kick the US out of Asia.
• Implications for US policy:
Strengthen the Japan‐US Alliance to deter China
Contain China with other regional alliances (India,Vietnam, Mongolia, Central Asia, Russia, (North?
and South) Korea, Taiwan, Australia, SE Asia)

China as a major stakeholder• Assumption: China wants a role in shaping theinternational system but wishes to cooperate with theUS• Implications for US policy:
Develop mechanisms to include China in decision
making, satisfy its ambitions to be treated as a major
player (G8), develop bilateral and multilateralmechanisms
Include Japan in the process
Big question: How much of the current international
systems does it accept? How much change does it want?

Critical issues• Taiwan• Domestic stability in China

Taiwan• Objectively, China does not need Taiwan (nor Tibet orXinjiang), countries that got rid of their colonial
mentality and holdings are better off• By now Beijing is stuck with its “Taiwan is China” claim
as the majority of Chinese seem to support it. Looking
weak could fuel anti‐government agitation.
• (Nearly) impossible for US to abandon Taiwan for
ideological reasons and strategic ones.
• Status quo could last “forever” but a war is notimpossible Î US needs deterrence powerDomestic stability• So far China has defied gravity, remained stable
despite dramatic domestic transformation.
• “Past performance is no guarantee of futureperformance”• What would a post‐CCP China look like?
Impossible to predictQuestions for Japan• Could a peaceful China replace Japan as thekey US partner in Asia?
• How does Japan fit in the stakeholder model?
• What is Japan role in US deterrence policy
against China?
• How autonomous is Japan’s China policy?
• Can Japan “handle” China if the US fails toperform its stabilizing role in Asia?

Conclusion• China’s power is generally overstated. The country
faces daunting domestic challenges, even under aworst‐case scenario is it not the new Soviet Union• US ability to affect Chinese domestic developments islimited• We know what Japan will be in 10 years, we have noidea what China will be in a decade• A stakeholder model combined with the necessary
deterrence to defend US interests is the logicalcombination