AIM/China: Inventory and Model Application

ERI AIM Project teamPrepared for 10th AIM Workshop
March 10th to 11th, 2005, NIES, TsukubaAIM/inventory: Progress in 2004-2005••••

CH4, N2O emission from Agriculture
32 new LPS for Power sector
12 new LPS for cement
84 LPS for Beijing

CH4 and N2O Emission Inventory: 2000
• 23 province data for nearly 1800 counties, another 8 province
not available• Emission including CH4 from Rice, CH4 from Animal, CH4from Coal Mining, N2O from Fertilizer• Basic data includes Peddy field, Irrigated area, Rice, Slaughter
Cattle and Buffaloes, Pork, Beef and mutton, Pig stock, Beefoutput, Large Animals, Meat output, Fertilizer use, Yield ofgrain, coal production,

Regional1_Name

Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui
Anhui

Regional2_Name

Area
(km2)

CH4 fromRice

Name of Driving Force
Irrigated area
Unit of Driving Force
1000Hasubtotal####3,167
HEFEI CITY47811
CHANGFENG
2,21294
FEIDONG2,204101
FEIXI
2,25266
WUHU CITY
1536WUHU
95629
FANCHANG
85020
NANLING
1,20131
BENGBU CITY
37715
HUAIYUAN
2,337
44
WUHE
1,56285
GUZHEN
1,400
36
HUAINAN CITY
1,004
38
FENGTAI
1,073
51
MA'ANSHAN CITY
2785DANGTU
1,439
43
HUAIBEI CITY
263
10SUIXI
2,29763TONGLING CITY895TONGLING929
19
ANQING CITY453
7
HUAINING
1,577
33
ZONGYANG
1,833
40
QIANSHAN
1,636
24
TAIHU
2,003
20
SUSONG
2,341
44
WANGJIANG
1,301
32

Driving Force
CH4 fromCH4 from
CoalAnimal
MiningSlaughter
Cattle andBuffaloes
2,436,416
116
11,400
8,613
4,522
243
1,260
1,954
4,267
1,737
30,33670,17070,93236,51857,817
264
1,200
3,818
29,504
112
204
438
7,423
4,328
2,503
14,510
8,939
5,884

4,167

1,325
605

1,637

N2O from
Fertilizer

Fertilizer use
ton
2,515,777
8,772
80,04964,23730,578
5,517
20,863
11,576
20,0689,839
54,732147,091
57,832
36,11336,955
3,200
26,683
5,866
59,8362,889
14,4506,398
12,89225,0737,58421,733
30,34626,332CH4 from Rice(t-CH4)744
2.61869344
22.16721646
23.70223156
15.44888087
1.358711677
6.746544141
4.694372352
7.28955867
3.450845575
10.40425239
20.07743328
8.52603331
8.928005104
11.96512532
1.168303985
10.13392049
2.237878057
14.74836862
1.269384612
4.372324775
1.746579198
7.839625335
9.473370345
5.545330184
4.748438734
10.28201536
7.477615649

EmissionCH4 from
CH4 fromAnimal
Coal Mining(t-CH4)(t-CH4)

N2O from
Fertilizer(Gg N2O)

402
0.01914173
1.88116998
1.42127342
0.74619742
0.04009862
0.20791879
0.32243913
0.70411862
0.2866309
5.00589232
11.5790963
11.7048376
6.02601449
9.54066707
0.04356394
0.19801789
0.63002693
4.86859991
0.01848167
0.03366304
0.07227653
1.22490568
0.71418453
0.41303232
2.39436635
1.47506828
0.97094773

89
0.30993227
2.82829091
2.2696214
1.08038176
0.194926620.73713142
0.40900318
0.70904249
0.3476315
1.93379078
5.19701856
2.04331997
1.27594436
1.3056939
0.11306239
0.94276364
0.20725749
2.11412529
0.10207414
0.51054734
0.22605411
0.45550009
0.88587912
0.26795785
0.76787026
1.07218474
0.93036211

432
000000000000
137.471844
62.7701629
00169.842573
0000000000

LPS for Power Generation and Cement• In 2004, there are nearly 50GW new power plant getting intooperation• Cement output surged to 950million ton, with several verylarge cement plants constructed(3 10000ton/day cement kiln,
while all together 4 kiln in the world)• 42 new LPS for Power sector• 12 new LPS for cement

300MW以上火力 发电 机 组 SO2排放量序

电厂名称

计算

机组号 建厂 投产（ 年）

号

乌兰察布电厂

年 （ 万KW ）

260

130

260

360

460

560

察右前旗多伦电厂

锡盟多伦县

120
160

260

岱海电厂二期扩
建工程

托克托电厂

120
160

26060

2003.9120

160

260

托克托B厂

临河热电厂

装机360

巴盟

160

260

360

460

560

660
2003.960

燃料

规模

发电量
计算（ 万KW ）（ 万kWh ）LPS for Beijing
84 LPS for Beijing with location
•••••
•
•

7 Power plants
9 Central Supplied Heat plants
21 District Heat Plants
9 Chemical Industries
8 Food Factories
12 Machinery Factories
18 othersVarious data source: an examples

18家供暖单位锅炉严重超标
来源： 作者：admin

本报讯（记者杜鹃）在全市各有关部门全力为本市今年二级和好于二级天数达到
全年天数62%以上的目标而共同努力的时候，一些供暖企业和单位却无视来之不易的大气环境治理成效，放松对燃煤锅炉的污染控制，还在排放超过国家标准10倍以上的二氧化硫等污染物，极大地破坏了本市的大气环境。昨天，市环保局公布了这些供暖单位的名单，并将对这些单位依法进行处罚。
据市环保局有关负责人介绍，最近几天，在北京市空气监测中心的统计报表上显示，市区空气质量连续数天都出现首要污染物为二氧化硫的三级天，这说明目前本市燃煤造成的二氧化硫污染仍然十分严重。为了有效降低二氧化硫污染，保障群众
的身体健康，确保全年二级及好于二级天数达到62％的目标，1月29、31日，市环
保监察队会同市环保监测中心对市区29家单位的燃煤锅炉二氧化硫排放情况进行了检查监测，发现超标现象普遍，污染物排放超标的单位共计达18家，超标率为62％。经了解，超标的原因主要是这些单位失于监控，放松管理造成的。其中，有的是
操作不规范，不能及时足量添加脱硫剂，有的是脱硫除尘设施不能保证稳定运行，
还有仍燃用高硫煤等违法行为所造成的。其中北京亚新科天纬油泵油嘴股份有限公司的锅炉排放浓度为1569 mg/m3，超过标准10倍以上；总后勤部司令部管理局丰台
热力站的锅炉排放浓度为1003mg/m3，超过标准近7倍，污染十分严重

LPS database for Beijing
序号 所属区县单 位名称
北京大唐发电股份有限公司高井发电厂

1
2
3
4

石景山区
海淀区
石景山区
石景山区

5朝阳区

67

丰台区
海淀区

8朝阳区

910

石景山区
丰台区11朝阳区1213
14
15

石景山区
朝阳区
朝阳区
丰台区

北京同力物业管理有限责任公司
北京京能热电股份有限公司
北京首钢超群电力有限公司
北京市朝阳区国土资源和房屋管理局供暖公司
团结湖供暖所
北京恩布拉科雪花压缩机有限公司
北京市新京物业管理有限责任公司
北京市朝阳区国土资源和房屋管理局供暖公司
设备安装队
北京染中靓纺织品科技发展有限公司
北京市华都建筑总公司
北京房管一物业管理有限责任公司和平里分公司（ 和平街10区锅炉房）北京重型电机厂
北京市朝阳水处理剂厂
北京市垂杨柳联合供热站
首都航天机械公司

16

海淀区

北京力新达物业管理有限责任公司

17

东城区

18
19
20
21

朝阳区
石景山区
海淀区
朝阳区

北京房管一物业管理有限责任公司和平里分公司（ 和平里七区锅炉房）
北京市恒联物业管理有限责任公司
北京鲁谷集中供热厂
北京市吉润物业管理中心
北京乐都物业管理中心

单 位地址
北京市石景山区高井永丰中路99号
北京市石景山区广宁路10号
北京市石景山区石景山路首钢厂区内水碓东路甲10号
丰台区永定门外贾家花园15号
北京市海淀区永定路西里小区12号楼
左家庄北里25号楼
北京市石景山区八大处路51号
马家堡南街39号
和平街10区甲16楼
北京市石景山区吴家村
北京市朝阳区郎各庄村
朝阳区垂杨柳中街2号
丰台区南苑警备东路2号
北京市海淀区北清路1号（ 北京北分瑞利分析仪器集团厂内）东城区和平里七区19号楼
朝外三丰里24号楼
北京市石景山区衙门口村东
海淀区小南庄四方小区
北京市朝阳区三元里街21号楼院内LPS database for Beijing
name
北京第三制药厂
北京恩布拉科雪花压缩机有限公司

北京二热
北京房管一物业管理有限责任公司和平里分公司（ 和平街10区锅炉房）北京化工二厂
北京化工实验厂
北京焦化厂
北京京能热电股份有限公司北京卷烟厂
北京兰翎酒业公司
北京鲁谷集中供热厂

北京燃料总厂
北京市朝阳水处理剂厂
北京市垂杨柳联合供热站
北京市华都建筑总公司

北京市化工三厂
北京市橡胶厂
北京首钢超群电力有限公司

北京铜厂

Addr ess东经北纬116.17.32 39.52.44

丰台区永定门外贾家116.16.20 39.52.56
花园15号

116.12.1

39.52.41

116.7.42 39.53.8
116.6.37 39.54.57
116.7.50 39.53.49
116.11.39 39.52.11
北京市石景山区广宁
116.12.59 39.52.11
路10号

116.12.18 39.52.16
116.13.18 39.52.6
116.15.1 29.52.0
北京市石景山区衙门口
116.16.28 39.52.8
北京市朝阳区郎各庄
116.18.10 39.49.59
村朝阳区垂杨柳中街2号 116.21.1 39.49.40

116.22.3 39.49.32
116.22.21 39.49.31
116.22.24 39.49.20
北京市石景山区石景116.22.36 39.49.25
山路首钢厂区内

116.22.47 39.49.28

Application of AIM/China in 2004-2005
Climate Change Strategy in ChinaBeijing Environment Research ProjectEMF-22APEIS/RISPO
Impact of WTO on Energy and Environment
Energy Forecast up to 2030
Guangdong Energy Development Strategy
Environmental and economic impact of SO2 policies:
application of AIM/CGE for China caseContribute to:
National Report on Climate Change
National Report on Climate and Environment Science
CDM Assessment in China, World Bank Publication

SPO Applied

Scenario for Beijing
Three Scenarios:• Government
promotion(BaU)• Technology
Progress(TG)• Clean future(CF)Government
Technology
Promotion
Progress
Same
Rail-based mass rapid 2000:56:00
transit, MRT, km
2008: 300
2020: 1000
3680
2020: 2000: 3680
Promotion of Alternative 2000:
Fuel Vehicles: number 10000of Clean fuel bus
2020: 12000

Clean FutureSame

2000: 3680
2020: 12000

Vehicleemission 2007: EURO III
standardandInspection/Maintenance2005: EURO III

2005: EURO III

2010: EURO IV

2010: EURO IV

Parking policy

Increase

Increase

Improved bus routes andservices

Bus lane
Better interchange

Bus lane
Better interchangeIntelligent
System (ITS)

Finish by 2006

Finish by 2006

Transport

Promotion of Alternative
Fuel Vehicles
PromotionofHigh
Efficiency Vehicles

2007: E15%
2005:Hybrid car

2005:Hybrid car

2005: new diesel car

2005: new diesel car

2013: fuel cell car

2013: fuel cell car

PromotionofHigh
Efficiency Vehicles

Mini Car : Incentive Mini Car : Incentivepolicies
policies

Improved bus routes andservices

Public interchange

Public interchange
BicyclePublic transport

Public awareness raisingon environmentally friendly
driving

Energy saving driving

Information Technology
based communication andservices to reducetransportation needTele-conference, online shopping, nearby
service

Promotion of special
lanes for walking andcycling

adoptedadopted

Vehicle fuel standard

adoptedadoptedGreening fuel tax

Fossil fuel based taxby 2006

SPO Applied

Scenario for Taiyuan
Three Scenarios:• Government
promotion(BaU)• Technology
Progress(TG)• Clean future(CF)Government
Promotion
Rail-based mass rapid 2000: 0transit, MRT, km
2020: 0Technology
Progress

Clean Future
2020:180

Promotion of Alternative 2003:00:00
Fuel Vehicles: numberof Clean fuel bus
2020:00:00

2003:00:00

2003:00:00

2020: 120

2020: 800

Vehicleemission 2008: EURO III
standardand
Inspection/Maintenance2005: EURO II

2007: EURO III

2008: EUROIII

2010: EURO IV

Parking policy

Increase

Increase

Improved bus routes andservices

Bus lane
Better interchange

Bus lane
Better interchangeIntelligent
System (ITS)

Finish by 2008

Finish by 2008

Transport

Promotion of Alternative
Fuel Vehicles
PromotionofHigh
Efficiency Vehicles

2007: E15%
2006:Hybrid car

2006:Hybrid car

2007: new diesel car

2007: new diesel car

2013: fuel cell car

2013: fuel cell car

PromotionofHigh
Efficiency Vehicles

Mini Car : Incentive Mini Car : Incentive
policies
policies

Improved bus routes andservices

Public interchange

Public interchange
BicyclePublic transport

Public awareness raisingon environmentally friendly
driving

Energy saving driving

Information Technology
based communication andservices to reducetransportation needTele-conference, online shopping, nearby
service

Promotion of speciallanes for walking andcycling

adoptedadopted

Vehicle fuel standard

adoptedadoptedGreening fuel tax

Fossil fuel based tax
by 2006

Energy and Emission Forecast in China: Population scenario

Total population milliom
Share of City%
Urban Pop
milliom
Rural Pop
milliom

2000
1267.430.36
458.81808.62

2010
1368.00
0.48
649.80718.20

2020
1445
0.57
823.65621.35

2030
1500
0.66
990.00510.00GDP growth rate in China
10%

864
20
2000-20102010-2020
Year

2020-2030

Service demand by products

SteelCopper

Indix(2000=1)

Aluminum

20
1816
14121086420

Lead&Zinc
CementGlass
BrickLime
Ammonia
Eythelene
Soda Ash
CausticPaper
FiberCotton

2000

2010

2020
Year2030

w ool
SILK
printing and dyeing

Final Energy Demand in China
3000
2500
Heat
Mtce

2000
1500

Electricity
N.gas

1000

Oil Prod.
Coal

500
02000

2010

2020
Year

2030

Final energy demand by sector in China
3000

Mtce

2500
RuralUrban

2000
1500
1000
50002000

2010

2020
Year

2030

Transport
ServiceIndustry
AgriculturePrimary energy demand in China
5000
Wind

Mtce

4000

Biomass

3000

Nuclear

2000

HydroN.gas

1000
0Crude Oil2000

2010

2020
Year2030

CoalApplication of AIM/CGE for China case

Next Step of IPAC-AIM/China
Energy and Emission Scenario for China
Using AIM/Country for China Energy Scenario Forum
Other pollutant: PM10, water pollution, land damage
Energy Strategy up to 2050
IPCC AR4
EMF-22
Energy regulation and financial measures
Energy planning for Guangdong and Hainan
Global Oil Market in 2030
Energy intensive material modelNext Step of IPAC-AIM/China

AIM/Local:
AIM/Local-Refinery
AIM/Local-Chemical
AIM/Local-Other
More LPS information
AIM/Beijing
AIM/Chongqing
AIM/Hainan
GIS information
Linked with AIM/Air