The 7th AIM International Workshop
15-17 March 2002
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Overview of AIM Modeling
AIM Project Team
Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan)
1Recent Activities of AIM Team
AIM/Local/Country/Inter-Provincial

AIM/Impact/Ecosystem
Temperature

Developed for linking
CO2, SO2, NO2, SPM
reduction program

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Precipitation
Detailed process model
Sunshine
for climate change
impact assessment
Land use
Water resource
focused on surface waterSocio-economic
Crop
recycling, crop
indicator
Productivity
productivity andImpact on food demand
vegetation
Adaptation strategy

AIM/End-useAIM FamilyCountry Based
Technology Model

AIM/Material

Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleOne country CGE modelwith CO2 and materialbalance, interface withenvironmental
technology model

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-downWorld Economic
Model

AIM/Trend

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea
Developed as a
ChinacommunicationIndia
platform in order
to construct
ThailandJapan
Asia-pacificregional environmental
outlook supported with2multi-regional environment-economic CGE modelRecent Activities of AIM Team
AIM/Local/Country/Inter-Provincial
Assess impact ofclimate change

AIM/Impact/Ecosystem
Temperature

Developed for linking
CO2, SO2, NO2, SPM
reduction program

water, agriculture,vegetation, economy, ...
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Precipitation
Detailed process model
Sunshine
for climate change
impact assessment
Land use
Water resource
focused on surface waterSocio-economic
Crop
recycling, crop
indicator
Productivity
productivity andImpact on food demand
vegetation
Adaptation strategy

AIM/End-use

AIM FamilyCountry Based
Technology Model

AIM/Material
Focus on both supply

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

One &country
CGE model sidesidedemandRecycle

Assess more efficienttechnologies

Environment FundWastes

with CO2 and materialbalance, interface withenvironmental
technology model

Consumer

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)

Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-downWorld Economic
Model

Futureeconomic trend

AIM/Trend
Global CGE model
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea
Developed as aChina
communicationIndia
platform in order
to construct
ThailandJapan
Asia-pacificregional environmental
outlook supported with3
multi-regional environment-economic CGE model

Assess cost of CO2
reduction andbenefit of mitigation
policies

Recent Activities of AIM Team
AIM/Local/Country/Inter-Provincial

AIM/Impact

City, county or country
Detailed
process model
scale
model
for climate change
impact assessment
Database+ end-use + GIS
focused on surface water
Assessco-benefit of CO2
recycling, crop
productivity
andand
air pollutant
reduction
Temperature

Developed for linking
CO2, SO2, NO2, SPM
reduction program

Precipitation

Sunshine

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

vegetation

Land use

Water resource

Socio-economic
indicator

Crop Productivity

Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy

Country based CGE

AIM/End-use

Integration ofCO2BasedCountry
Model
reduction &Technology
materialflow

AIM/Material

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleOne country CGE modelwith CO2 and materialbalance, interface withenvironmental
technology model

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

Communication tool
AIM/Top-downfor policy makers toWorld Economicassessenvironmental
Modelpolicies

AIM/Trend

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea
Developed as a
ChinacommunicationIndia
platform in order
to construct
ThailandJapan
Asia-pacificregional environmental
outlook supported with4
multi-regional environment-economic CGE model

Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:
The AIM Approach
MitigationofClimate
Change

IPCC
UNEP
OECD
Eco-Asia
IEA
APN
EMF
WWF

Technology
Economic Model

lifestyleLand-use model

Japanese
Team

EnergyModel

ChineseTeam

GHG Emission
Carbon
Cycle

Apply

Atmospheric
Chemistry
ClimateChangeAdaptationofClimate
ChangeSea Level
RiseWater
Resource

EcosystemAgriculture

IndianTeam

Ocean
UptakeModelDevelopment

Climate ChangeNational
Government
PrivateCompany

Population
Model

Human
HealthKorea
TeamThai,
Malaysia,
Indonesia,.
.
.

Year
2032

202 5

2015

200 51995

Sin gapor e

Br uneiK orea, Rep

Nauru

Aust rali a

Tai wan

J apanT hail andPala u

New Zeala nd

Mo ngoli a

M alays ia

China

Kore a,DemPol ynesi a

Vi etNam

I ndiaPhili ppine s

Indo nesia

Mal dives

Ton gaFi ji

S amoaPakis tan

Bang lades hNepa l

Sri Lanka

Pa puaNe wGuin ea

My anmar

K iriba ti

V anua tu

Solom on I sland s

Bhut anLaoCam bodia

CO2 emission per capita (Mt-C/cap)
20181614121086420Country

6Projection of CO2 emission per capita for each country

CO2 emission
intensity
Market Force
2032
Policy Reform
1995
gC/m2/year

0510100 1000

2032

7Fortress World

Policy Reform

m3/ha/year

1502501000

2000
8Water consumption intensity in 1995 and 2032 in agriculture sector

The 7th AIM International Workshop
15-16 March 2002, NIES Tsukuba, Japan

Session I: Opening
Session II: Emission Inventory and Modelling- AIM/Trend- Emission Inventory and Modelling in China- Emission Inventory and Modelling in India

Session III: Emission Inventory and Climate Change- Emission Inventory in Malaysia- CO2 Reduction Policy in Selected Asian Countries- Russia’s Climate Policy
9The 7th AIM International Workshop
15-16 March 2002, NIES Tsukuba, Japan

Session IV: Impact Modelling- Recent Development of AIM/Impact Model- Database for AIM (Impact Model)/ China- Impact Assessment of Forest Influenced by Changing
Global Climate

Session V : Land Use and Impact Modeling- Impact Model Development- AIM/Water- Modeling Agriculture and Land Use10

The 7th AIM International Workshop
15-16 March 2002, NIES Tsukuba, Japan
Session VI: Modelling in the Asia and Pacific Region- AIM/Country- AIM/Provincial and Inter Provincial- AIM/Database
Session VII : Environmental Innovation Strategies
in the Asia-Pacific Region
Session VIII: Modelling of CO2 Emission, Wastes and Material- Application to Korea- Modeling of Household Waste Generation Treatment byBottom-up Approach- AIM/Material- Agriculture and Land Use
Session IX: Future Direction of AIM Modeling11Thank you

12