REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

MOEJ/GEC REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014
Summary of the Final Report“REDD+ Study in Luang Prabang Province”( Implementing Entity: Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting )1．Overview of the Proposed JCM Project
Study partners
Project site
Category of
project

Description ofproject

Expected project
implementer
Initial investment
Annualmaintenance cost

Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, Japan Forest Technology Associationand Marubeni Corporation
Phonsay District, Luang Prabang Province, Lao PDR
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing
countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests andenhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD-plus) andafforestation and reforestation, or REDD+
The study targeted an area of Phonsay District Luang Prabang Province, Lao
PDR; an area with on-going deforestation and forest degradation due to theimpact of shifting cultivation and illegal logging etc. REDD+ activities such as
forest management etc. were carried out and the effects of reductions in GHG
emissions were quantified. Specifically, the study concentrated on rural Land
Forest Management Committee (LMFC) that were community organizations,and under the auspices of the LMFC established land use classifications andspecified alternative livelihoods to try to curtail shifting cultivation. The efficient
implementation of these measures led to the curtailment of deforestation andforest degradation. In carrying out the study, we used the framework developed
in JICA project for implementing REDD+.
Japan

Marubeni Corporation

Provincial Agriculture and Forestry Office (PAFO) in Luang
Prabang Province
Approximately 17,000
Date ofYear 2009
thousands yen
groundbreaking
Approximately 36,000
Construction
thousands yen
Year 2009 - 2014
periodNote: approximately 50–70 million
Host country

yen in case of sub-national level

Willingness toinvestment

Financial plan ofproject

GHG emission
reductions

Already

Date of projectcommencement

From year 2015

The use made of (previous) JICA project outcomes etc. in this project is
expected to significantly reduce the initial costs related to the development of thebasic framework and the procurement/analysis of satellite images. In the future
there will be costs required to manage and maintain the actual implementationand continuance of the project; and consultations are currently underway withfunders (investors).
Approximately 120 Gg-CO2/year
Note: potential value of some millions ton-CO2/year provided that local, project
managers (from community organizations etc.) are trained as a matter of urgency
in the event that the pilot project is rolled out (on a quasi-national basis)
following this study.

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

2. Study Contents(1) Project development and implementation(1-1) Project planning(1-1-1) Project Implementation Framework
When promoting an REDD+ project, it greatly helps the stability (i.e. sustainability) of the project if thehost country is encouraged to take ownership. Therefore, this study has assumed a framework of close
collaboration between Japanese companies and the Lao PDR (the Government of Luang Prabang Province).
To implement the REDD+ project, it is necessary tackle institutional and policy issues such as ensuring
compliance with the legal system in Lao PDR and determining a method to divide any profits obtained as aresult of the REDD+ project; and the Japanese companies, the Luang Prabang Provincial Government andthe Central Government of Lao PDR have decided to continue to hold consultations to address these issues.
In addition, grass-root activities are naturally required in the target location when developing projects likethe REDD+ project that aim to improve the planning of land use in developing countries (offering incentives
for forest conservation). Consequently, it was decided that to move the project forward smoothly andefficiently, we would cooperate with organizations such as local consultants and rural people groups, andthat these organizations would take the main role in leading activities at the local level (specifically activities
to curtail deforestation and forest degradation) (see Figure 1).

REDD+ proponents (assumed Japan’senterprises)• Supports from Japan’s Embassyin Lao PDR and JICA project(s)Organizing
REDD+ Implementation Teamin Luang Prabang Province
PAFO in Luang Prabang ProvinceLocal Consultant (i.e. New Era＋Co., Ltd.)
Observer: Japan’s enterprises
Adviser: JICA Long-term experts• Considering safeguards bycollaboration with Lao PDRManaging<REDD+ Implementation Team C>
in eachvillage cluster Team B><REDD+
Implementation
Local Government(DAFO)
in eachvillage cluster Team A
REDD+
Implementation
Land
and
ForestManagement
Committee (LFMC)
Local Government(DAFO)
in eachvillage cluster
LocalConsultant
Landand Forest
Management
DAFO
in Phonsay
District Committee (LFMC)•※JAFTAはオブザーバーとして会議等に参加する。
LocalConsultant
RuralPeople Group•※JAFTAはオブザーバーとして会議等に参加する。
Local Consultant
Observer: Japan’s enterprises• Considering 3 types of ethnic
groups in target site.
• Implementation team will beestablished in each village levelfor expanding REDD+ activities
into Sub-national level

Figure 1 Project implementation team (the team consists of village representatives who have participated in
JICA projects, as well as other stakeholders such as Government personnel from PAFO and DAFO)(1-1-2) Project Funding Plans
Marubeni Corporation has announced its intention to participate in the REDD+ project being developed inthis study (i.e. the project) and commercialization is being considered from fiscal year 2015 onwards,
depending on future trends in the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM). Evaluations of the feasibility of the
project to date have been used when considering commercialization and it has been estimated that the
REDD+ project will reduce emissions by 1,825.4 Gg-CO2 over a 15 year period (an annual average of 121.7
Gg-CO2). When this amount of reduction in emissions is multiplied by the most recent verified carbon unit
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report(VCS) credit price (which is 7.8 USD/t), the expected results show an average annual income of 416,346
USD. Incidentally, assuming the credit price to be 10 USD/t for the purposes of sensitivity analysis, theaverage annual revenue becomes 541,298 USD. Calculating the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on the basis of
the estimates above and the costs of the REDD+ project mentioned hereinafter, we obtain a figure of 22% in
the event that the credit price is 7.8 USD/t and 28% if it is 10 USD/t; showing project to be sufficiently
viable. (see Figure 2).

Internal Rate of Return

30%

20%

10%

0%
7.8USD/t

10.0USD/t

Figure 2 Expected IRR from the Project(1-1-3) Project Licenses
When implementing a long-term REDD+ project, it is vital to build a forest management system inconjunction with the host country. Consequently, we need to know what levels of the administration (Central,
Provincial or District Government) and which presiding ministries have the authority to issue licenses related
to forest management (i.e. forestry concessions and concessions on the use of forests); and in addition wemust have a clear understanding of exactly what approvals are needed to implement the REDD+ project.
Another extremely important point is whether foreign companies are allowed to invest in the REDD+
project.
It has become clear from this study that there is currently no licensing system (legal system) in Lao PDR
for the implementation of REDD+ projects. It is assumed that from now on, in consultation with Lao PDR
REDD+ Office, which is serving as the REDD+ implementing agency, REDD+ implementation staff willobtain approval to implement the REDD+ project in the target location through the exchange of memorandawith the presiding Government agencies; note that host country has agreed to the use of this method.

(1-1-4) Analysis of Satellite Images to Show Specific Forest Dynamics
It is essential for the REDD+ project to have a satellite images analysis of all aspects of the forest
dynamics. For example such information will be used to develop reference levels and monitor the actual
results of GHG emission reduction activities to allow us to quantify the amount of GHG emission reductions
forecast. In this study, we decided to clarify forest dynamics in the region by observing the study target area
using data from high resolution satellite. Previously JICA conducted a technical cooperation project(PAREDD) in the area and in FY2013 Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) carried out afeasibility study in the same region. Bearing in mind the importance of consistency in the analysis methods
used to compare past forest dynamics with the most recent forest conditions, we used previous forest
distribution maps and the most recently observed satellite data, and devised a method to extract and update
those specific spots where land use/land cover had changed (see Figure 3).

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Current
satellite
imagery data

Forest covermap in past

Analyzing
forestdynamics

Current forest
cover map

Figure 3 Analysis Method used for Land Cover Maps

(1-1-5) An Empirical Study into the Curtailment of Deforestation/Forest Degradation
The Houaikhing village cluster in the target area of Phonsay District in Luang Prabang Province is madeup of 6 villages and is in a mountainous region located some 37 km from Phonsay District's local authorities.
Two ethic groups live in the village cluster - the Khmu and the Hmong. The driving force behind thedeforestation and forest degradation has been shifting cultivation, and so for the past three years JICA has
been carrying out a technological cooperation project (PAREDD). JICA established the PAREDD Approachas a way of curtailing deforestation, setting up a village fund and fostering public awareness of the need tocurtail deforestation in the region; and has developed improvements in livelihoods through the use of
livestock rotation. In this study, we used the PAREDD Approach introduced by JICA as a basis and decided
to examine the implementation and effects of demonstration activities to allow us to select which of the
REDD+ activities used to curtail deforestation in the target area to roll out across the whole region.
In the empirical research, we reorganized the existing information gathered to date and examined theintroduction of rice paddies and village market system (hereinafter pre-demonstrations) and the introductionof compost production systems (hereinafter demonstration). Based on the results of the demonstration
activities, we planned to try specific activities to improve livelihoods aimed at the full-scale implementationof REDD+ activities in the target area of Houaikhing village.
To date studies on pre-demonstrations and demonstration have been carried out with the aim of full scale
implementation of REDD activities. From the outcomes of these trials we obtained the results shown in
Table 1 with regard to deforestation/forest degradation curtailment activities (i.e. the introduction ofalternative livelihoods to alleviate excess pressure on forest resources.)- I 概要-2

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Table 1 SWOT Analysis of Alternative Livelihoods in the Houaikhing Village Cluster
Strengths
Weaknesses• There are small streams that allow for the• Agriculture is conducted in a non-scientificpossibility of developing irrigation systems; somemanner. Rice cultivation etc. is not carried out
using sloping rice terraces; this has caused
are available only in the rainy season, and others
erosion and a reduction in the land's capacity to
can be used all year round.
hold water.
• Many residents grow a variety of fruit trees and• There is a lack of single crop cultivation andvegetables for home consumption around theirhuts, showing potential for large scale cultivation
farmland optimization. Cultivation only takes
for commercial use.
place during the rainy season and by growing
legumes and other crops in the dry season it• According to new zoning regulations, thewould be possible to improve soil fertility.
residents of each village are allocated at least 3• There are insufficient irrigation systems andunits of farmland (1 unit = 1ha) and if these are
equipment to allow the introduction of riceturned into regular fields there is the potential topaddies.
cultivate cash crops.
• Residents are unable to sell high-value crops due• There are markets in place for the sale ofto an inadequate market system.
livestock, pepper, coffee, konjac potatoes, andbamboo etc.
• Current transportation conditions are inadequate• Road infrastructure is advancing, which will
for the transport of goods.
enable developments in the sale of agricultural• There is a lack of forest resource management
produceexpertise.
• The forest is rich in non-cultivated products• Farming is done on a family-unit basis and theincluding bamboo, mushrooms, herbs and konjac
labor force is not sufficient for intensive farming.
potatoes that could be managed and produced on • Rice cultivation is residents only method of
a commercial scale.
livelihood and there is a cultural attitude thatslash-and-burn is an easy method of farming.
• Farming plots are spread out, making irrigationand the implementation of land development
plans difficult.
Opportunities
Threats• Developing the market for agricultural produce• Increased demand for farmland due to a rise in
by using a market promotion plan will encourage
population will increase slash-and-burn practices.
the cultivation of alternative crops (fruit and• There is the risk that in promoting the breeding ofvegetables etc.) to replace shifting cultivation.
livestock, animals will be allowed to graze in theforests in the traditional manner and this will
• There are areas suitable for growth in cash crops
advance degradation of the forests.
such as cassava, coffee, tobacco, bamboo
furniture and handicrafts etc.; crops that can be• It is possible that cultivating cash crops will leadsold at Luang Prabang City market for highto increased demand for agricultural land.
prices.
• Because prices will be managed by foreign• There are streams that would allow thebrokers, market selling prices will be unstabledevelopment of reservoirs and irrigation systems
to allow the development of paddy fields forfarmland that would last for years(1-2) Contribution of Japan(1-2-1) Transfer of Know-How on Forest Conservation
Lao PDR, the subject of this study, produces forestry resources from natural, or naturally regenerated,
forests and in the 2000s the country began to cultivate materials in demand for practical use such as teak(Tectona grandis) for example; materials that are scheduled to start production around 2020. When that
happens, basic forestry management techniques will be essential, such as a prior understanding of how todetermine felling periods and also how much timber/wood will be obtained from felling operations. These
techniques are considered useful for the sustainable management of forests as a whole -including teak forests.
In close cooperation with the Provincial Government of Luang Prabang (primarily the PAFO), this study has
developed initiatives and it is felt that with forestry monitoring having actually been developed in the field,
the monitoring technology transferred will not only be beneficial to future timber production in Lao PDR,
but will also be important in terms of the medium-long term development of forestry management.
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report(1-2-2) Transfer of Technology used to Calculate GHG Emissions in the Land Use Field
When calculating GHG emissions in the field of land use, the very nature of the field means that there is alarge degree of uncertainty in comparison with the energy field. Therefore, we require the technology tominimize such uncertainty and calculate/record GHG emissions in view of it. In addition, to develop
calculations of GHG emissions over time, we need to introduce systems to ensure consistency in time series
data. This study used the outcome of the JICA project as a basis to analyze land use since the year 2000 andfrom the degree of change, in conjunction with the Lao PDR, we developed a series of operations to be
carried out in the calculation of GHG emissions. This initiative is believed to be beneficial not only in Luang
Prabang Province, but also in the future creation of a national GHG inventory in Lao PDR. In particular, it isfelt that the fact that over 80% of GHG emissions in Lao PDR come from the field of land use, means thatdeveloping the ability to accurately calculate emissions will also prove effective in advancing future policies
on climate change.

(1-2-3) Data Obtained from Japan's Satellites and Data Analysis Technology
A long-term, uninterrupted understanding of the land (forest) activity data for the REDD+ project is a very
important process; a process based on the establishment of reference levels and the calculation of GHG
emissions in the event of the REDD+ project's implementation. It was assumed that the REDD+ projectenvisaged in this study would use LANDSAT TM images, which have a long track-record. However, in
anticipation of future REDD+, we also investigated the possibility of contributing Japanese satellite data. For
example the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) is thought effective in correcting and verifying landacreage data etc; and in addition there also seems to be room to use the Greenhouse Gases Observing
Satellite (GOSAT) to verify conservative calculations of emission/absorption amounts. From this, it seems
quite likely that Japan's satellites will be used in the REDD+ project.

(1-2-4) Techniques for Developing Emission Factors
The development of emission factors is significant in terms of greatly improving the accuracy of
calculations on GHG emission from forests. As a result and in conjunction with the Lao PDR, this study
extrapolated techniques to develop emission factors and furthermore, shared the importance of on-going
improvements in emission factors. As a first step to creating emission factors, the study promoted hands-on
technical transfer through local training etc.

(1-2-5) Long-term, Sustainable Regional Development AssistanceIn the target area of Luang Prabang Province, initiatives are being developed to curtail the expansion of
uncontrolled shifting cultivation with the introduction of a land-zoning system that distinguishes between"forests to be conserved" and "forests where shifting cultivation is permitted". Against this backdrop, a land
use map of the target area is being developed through the REDD+ project and land management is being
developed with the use of portable GPS devices (such as measuring the acreage of agricultural land;
something that traditionally has not been measured); and by leveraging these effects it possible to offer
lateral assistance to the land zoning system. The REDD+ project is expected to be able to contribute tolong-term, sustainable development assistance in the region by focusing on these aspects.

(1-2-6) Evaluation of Japan’s Contribution in terms of JCM Methodology
Currently the "Capacity Development Project for Establishing National Forest Information System for
Sustainable Forest Management and REDD+" is underway in Lao PDR with assistance from the JICA; aproject that is developing information facilities related to forestry carbon dynamics at a national level. Not
only is the methodology to be developed in this study expected to be used as a technical input for suchprojects, but it is also expected that, thanks to cooperation between the JICA project and this study, it will be
evaluated as part of Japan's comprehensive aid to the forestry sector.

(1-3) MRV structure
In this survey we use an MRV system with two separate bodies to develop the REDD+ project; one is
responsible for Monitoring and Reporting, while the other is responsible for Verification.

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report(1-3-1) Monitoring & Reporting
Within Monitoring and Reporting, changes in forest acreage that constitute the amount of activity need tobe quantitatively evaluated through the analysis of satellite imagery in terms of Monitoring. However,currently it is difficult to find technology for the analysis of satellite imagery of an international standard in
Lao PDR. As a result, the Japanese side has decided to provide ongoing technical assistance and cooperate inperiodically analyzing the satellite imagery. Furthermore, the outcomes of the JICA project have led to
improved capacity in the development/improvement in accuracy of emission factors to a level where the Lao
PDR is more than capable of carrying out this type of monitoring. From now on when work related to thedevelopment of emission factors occurs, the system will be such that the Lao PDR will basically proceedwith the work, with technical assistance from the Japanese side. Next, Reporting requires that the raw dataobtained during Monitoring be analyzed and the results summarized. In this study it is possible to calculate
GHG emissions using a spreadsheet, and we believe these values can be used in Reporting. In future, once
the REDD+ project has started, monitoring will take place provisionally once every five years and Reporting
will basically become the responsibility of the Lao PDR.

(1-3-2) Verification
As regards Verification, the quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) regime needs to be constructed inline with ISO14064, given that initiatives under the JCM are conducted on the basis of this standard. In thisstudy, quality control (QC) will be performed by a third-party such as a research institute affiliated with adomestic or foreign university etc. and quality assurance (QA) will be supervised by a third-party institutewith ISO14065 accreditation, in line with JCM principles.

(1-4) Environmental integrity and Sustainable development in host country
By improving the conventional, unplanned use of land, the REDD+ project exerts a positive influence interms of environmental and social aspects. On the other hand adequate consideration needs to be given to theburdens placed on local residents (such as relocation of homes etc.) and the risks that the project will fail tobecome permanent, or that there may be leakages (i.e. displacement of other activities) etc. The points listed
above are also recognized as common issues in UNFCCC negotiations and consideration of them(safeguards) is deemed essential. This study has also taken full consideration of UNFCCC opinions indeciding to promote the initiative.
Unplanned use of the land in Lao PDR has caused serious deforestation and forest degradation. REDD+
intends to tackle this problem head on and contribute to sustainable development of the region. In addition,
we hope to curtail deterioration in the quality of river water caused by deforestation and forest degradation
and also improve the poverty rate associated with job creation.

(1-4-1) Evaluation of Economic Impact
The REDD+ project envisaged in this study is an initiative to conserve the region's forests in themedium-long term and involve the local community in carrying out this conservation. In addition, withregard to the conservation of biological diversity in forest ecosystems, there are plans to take advantage ofthe research results from the Laos National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI) via
cooperation with the REDD+ project; with no major problems foreseen at this stage.

(1-4-2) Consultations with Local Stakeholders
It is assumed that the REDD+ project will proceed with the participation of rural people. Furthermore, thecommunity organizations at the heart of activities at the grass roots level, will be set up with the approval of
the Luang Prabang Provincial Government and Lao PDR Central Government, meaning that the initiatives
promoted by the REDD+ project are based on the agreement and approval of stakeholders. As a result, at thecurrent stage there seem to be no conflicts of interest, however proper attention has been paid as to how tohandle future issues such as profit distributions etc.

(1-5) Toward project realization (planned schedule and possible obstacles to be overcome)(1-5-1) Issues (Benefits Distributions etc.)
At the present time, the specific method for distributing benefits from implementation of REDD+ has notbeen decided in Lao PDR. Benefits distribution is one of the most important elements mentioned toencourage the proactive involvement of the private sector in the REDD+ project; and what is needed is early
development in the country and prompt discussions on the JCM. Meanwhile, if no clear provisions are- I 概要-2

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

established for benefits distributions, then we are considering a way to promote the implementation of
REDD+ by having those implementing the REDD+ project and the project stakeholders sign benefit sharing
agreements.

(1-5-2) Future Schedule
The remaining two months or so of the study coincides with the dry season and provides an environment
where we can concentrate on implementing field surveys. With the Lao PDR up to speed, the field surveys
will be rolled out from late January through mid February and summarized in the final report.

(2) JCM methodology development(2-1) Eligibility criteria
In terms of eligibility requirements, we need to bear in mind how we respond to the unique issues in
REDD+ and consider the nature of Japan's contributions, including the provision of soft-ware services. This
study assumes the 5 items shown in Table 2 to be the (draft) eligibility requirements and examines thevalidity of each item and looks at whether or not there are any other requirements that should be added.
Table 2 Eligibility Requirements for Developing Methodology
Eligibility Requirements (draft proposals)
Reason for Establishing Requirements
Drivers of deforestation and forest
There are significant differences in REDD+
1
degradation are slash-and-burn (shifting methodology depending on the type of driving factor.
to rich forests) and/or illegal logging.
There are no peat soil in project area
This requirement is essential, as there are no plans to2take carbon stocks in soil into consideration in themethodology created in this study
Data on population and number of
A necessary requirement to establish reference levels
3
livestock are to be available.
that take into account socio-economic indicators.
Accuracy of land and forest
Assumes the use of image-analysis technology owned
classification is over 80% by using
by Japan4satellite imagery analysis duringreference period.
All of project activities are implemented It is important to build a model of systems and facilities
by ownership of rural people's groupthat include participation by the residents to deal withissues of safe-guarding and scenarios where the project
fails to continue. It is assumed that we will take5
advantage of the expertise and experience learned todate through international aid projects carried out by
Japan.

(2-1-1) Eligibility Requirement 1: Status of the Driving Factors behind Deforestation andForest Degradation
The driving factors behind deforestation and forest degradation in the target area are the analyticalmaterial that forms the base for consideration of initiatives to be developed by the REDD+ project; andnaturally the methodology applied needs to take this analysis of the driving factors into consideration. For
this reason, this study emphasizes the status of the driving factors behind deforestation and forest
degradation, and establishes the following as (draft) eligibility requirements (see Table 3).

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Table 3 Grounds for the Establishment of (draft) Eligibility Requirement 1
Eligibility Requirement (draft Grounds for Establishment
proposal)Drivers of deforestation and As a driving factor behind deforestation and forest degradation, it
forest degradation are
makes a significant difference whether anthropogenic sources are
slash-and-burn (shifting todirect or indirect. While the high density of population in the Mekongrich forests) and/or illegal
River basin, which includes Lao PDR, has led to the expansion of1
logging.
shifting cultivation to produce food, the status of such anthropogenic
impact is divided into direct impact, such as Kalimantan Island forexample, and indirect impact such as that in the Amazon basin (where
fires spread to become forest fires etc.)(2-1-2) Eligibility Requirement 2: Target Area Soil TypeA major issue when measuring forest GHG emissions is which of the 5 carbon pools forms the target ofthe measurements. In the case of locations such as Kalimantan Island that are peatland, it is impractical to
exclude soil organic carbon from the measurements; on the other hand it makes little impact to exclude soilorganic carbon from measurements in areas with wide-spread mineral soil. This study examined a review ofscientific literature into whether shifting cultivation in the Mekong River basin is related to GHG emitted
from the soil and found that the general calculation method could be applied on the basis that there were no
distributions of peatland in the region; moreover, on the assumption that activities such shifting cultivation
alone were contributing factors, we were able to adjust calculations to exclude soil organic carbon (see Table
4).
Table 4 Grounds for the Establishment of (draft) Eligibility Requirement 2
Eligibility Requirement (draft Grounds for Establishment
proposal)
There are no peat soil in
If the target area has a distribution of peatland, even slight humanproject area
impacts can have a significant impact on GHG emissions and as well
as being included in the measurements, the required degree of
accuracy in the calculations becomes an important issue. As a result,
we determined the first eligibility requirement to be whether or not2
there was a distribution of peatland. Note that the definition ofpeatland clarified in Indonesia is: "Peatland is an area with anaccumulation of partly decomposed organic matter, with ash content
equal to or less than 35%, peat depth equal to deeper than 50 cm, andorganic carbon content (by weight) of at least 12%".

(2-1-3) Eligibility Requirement 3： Basic Information for the Prediction of Future Forest
Dynamics
The major task when implementing REDD+ projects is said to be establishing reference levels. Reference
levels are used to indicate potential future GHG emissions based on past GHG emissions and national
circumstances; and depending on the accuracy of the reference levels there can be a huge variation in GHG
emission reductions obtained from the implementation of an REDD+ project. In light of these reference level
characteristics, this study cites historical administrative data on population and livestock herd sizes (which
are highly correlated with deforestation and forest degradation) as materials for use in the highly accurate
calculation of future GHG emissions (see Table 5).

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Table 5: Grounds for the Establishment of Eligibility Requirement 3
Eligibility Requirements – Draft Grounds for Establishment
Proposal
Data on population andAs mentioned above, there is a high density of population in thenumber of livestock are to
Mekong River basin, an area that includes Lao PDR, andbe available.
deforestation and forest degradation is advancing due to direct
anthropogenic influences (such as shifting cultivation). As a result,3
fluctuations in population and household income etc., which act as
indicators of anthropogenic influence, enable us to predict future
dynamics in deforestation and forest degradation.

(2-1-4) Eligibility Requirement 4： Accuracy Thresholds to Satisfy Internationally RequiredStandards
Clarifying forest dynamics (i.e. trends in the changes of land use) in the REDD+ project target area
constitutes the most fundamental information when calculating GHG emissions. As a result a high degree of
accuracy is needed in the land use classifications (data on acreage) shown from the analysis of satellite
imagery. As described above, the study established the following (draft) eligibility requirement (see Table 6).
Table 6: Grounds for the Establishment of Eligibility Requirement 4
Eligibility Requirement – Draft Grounds for Establishment
Proposal
Accuracy of land and forest In establishing accuracy standards, we took into consideration theclassification is over 80%
level of accuracy required for JCM and the standards requiredby using satellite imagery
internationally. The VCS sets a required level of around 80% in the4analysis during reference
distinction between forest and non-forest and likewise, a level of
period.
around 80% for the analysis of forests by type. Consequently, we set
an 80% threshold in this study.

(2-1-5) Eligibility Requirement 5： REDD+ Core Implementation Status (in consideration ofSocial Safeguards)
In REDD+ projects, which are initiatives that deal with improving traditional methods of land use, it isnecessary to develop rules to model the project on local community participation to help ensure theimprovements. For example if we create rules to enforce a top-down approach to land use, this may end up
adversely affecting the traditional system of land use, and depending on the circumstances, there is also therisk that unless they conform to local customs, the rules themselves will become a mere facade (i.e.
meaningless). As a result, to ensure that rules are made to a model that includes local community
participation, we also established this (draft) eligibility requirement to consider social safeguards in theregion (see Table 7).
Table 7: Grounds for the Establishment of Eligibility Requirement 5
Eligibility Requirement (Draft Grounds for Establishment
Proposal)
All of project activities are Collaboration/cooperation with the local community was deemed an
implemented by ownership eligibility requirement to ensure that rules are made to a model that
5of rural people's group
includes local community participation, and also in consideration ofsocial safeguards in the region(2-2) Calculation of GHG emissions (including reference and project emissions)
Reference emissions (levels) were established using the process outlined below, based on land use innorthern Laos and the adjacent Mekong River basin. When establishing the levels, we analyzed the factors
for direct anthropogenic influence (i.e. the expansion of slash-and-burn shifting cultivation) that act as thedriving factors behind deforestation and forest degradation and decided to use the process outlined below.
1. From historical trends in forest acreage and socio-economic indicators, we analyzed the correlation
between the two and created an equation for the model- I 概要-2

10 -REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

2. We established predictive estimates for socio-economic indicators under the scenario that the project
does not take place (the "reference scenario").
3. By inputting the estimates obtained in above 2 into the model in above 1, we calculated predictive
estimates for forest acreage.
4. We calculated the reference emissions by applying the estimates obtained in above 2 and above 3 to theequation shown in the reference materials.
Note that we used conservative methods to study the establishment of reference levels. Furthermore, whencalculating the model we made a technical examination of any instances where logically the land area wasincorrect, or where there was a significant deviation from real-life conditions (such as negative values etc.)
When promoting an REDD+ project in the Mekong River basin, an area that includes the Luang Prabang
Province, the emission sources considered when calculating GHG emission reductions are "changes inbiomass carbon stock quantities associated with tree growth and felling" and "the quantity of CH4/N2O
emissions associated with forest fires and the burning of fields". The largest amount of GHG emissions is
expected to be from "changes in biomass carbon stock quantities associated with tree growth and felling" andfor this we decided to use the "stock change method" as per the IPCC guidelines issued in 2006.
The REDD+ project envisaged in this study aims to curtail the expansion (into naturally generated forests)of shifting cultivation, which is the cause of deforestation and forest degradation, and calculate the amount of
CO2 emissions avoided by applying the econometric model in the Box below.
Box： Econometric model to calculate emissions caused by the expansion of slash-and burn agriculture - afactor behind deforestation and forest degradation

ForAreat = 0.0207 × ForAreat −1 − 0.937 × FAt − 0.930 × SBAt + 223,371
FA = 0.982 × FAt −1 + 0.661 × SBAt −1 − 2,390......................... Econometric Model

SBA = 0.235 × FAt −1 − 235 × PFt + 0.337 × POPt + 0.434 × otherst − 10,494
where;
ForAreat Total forest area of Mixed forest, Dry dipterocarp forest and Teak plantation within thereference region at year t; ha
FAt
Area of fallow at time t within the reference region; ha
SBAt
Area of slash-and-burn at time t within the reference region; haPFt
Area of paddy field at time t within the reference region; ha
POPt
Population of within the reference region at time t
OtherstNumber of cow as livestock at time t within the reference region or other income fromnon-forestry sector (e.g. Non-timber forests products)t
1, 2, 3 … T, a year of the proposed crediting period; dimensionless(2-3) Data and parameters fixed ex ante
The main parameters to be set in advance are as below. The first field study already carried out a survey ofcarbon stock per unit of area, and this study examined how frequently data will be updated in the future etc.
Note that the outcomes of the previous JICA technical cooperation project (PAREDD) can be applied to thetarget area as coefficients (parameters) and are gathered below (in Table 8)
Table 1 Coefficients from Relative Growth Formula by Forest Type – Used as Parameters (only includes
the main items)
Forest Organs
Relative Growth Formula & Coefficients Source
Location whereType
Developed
equations developed
Mixed Trunk
Biomass = 0.03566*D2.618,
146.9 t ha-1 in JICA
Phonsay District
forestwith bark R2 = 0.771
living biomass PAREDD(below-groundBranchBiomass = 3.162*D1.197,
JICA
Phonsay Districtbiomass (root) is PAREDD
R2 = 0.485
41.4 t ha-1)
Leaf
Biomass = 0.2497*D1.281,
JICA
Phonsay District2
R = 0.633
PAREDD
Root
Biomass = 0.4908*D1.652,
JICA
Phonsay District
R2 = 0.855
PAREDD- I 概要-2

11 -REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report(2-4) Elaboration of the JCM methodology based on applying the draft to measure GHG
emission reductions(2-4-1) Actual Measurements such as the Amount of CO2 Emissions Avoided; measured using
the proposed JCM methodology
The effects of the activities (i.e. the Project Activities) to curtail deforestation/forest degradation in the
Houaikhing village cluster, which constitutes the REDD+ target area, were calculated using the method
below. By implementing the REDD+ project envisaged in this study, we estimate a reduction in GHG
emissions/removal quantities of 1,825.4 Gg-CO2 over a 15 year period from 2011-2025 (i.e. 121.7
Gg-CO2/year) (see Figure 4).

GHG emission reductions (Gg-CO2)

600
500
400
Reference

300
200
REDD+

100
0
2000

Figure 4

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Reductions in GHG emissions/removals quantities predicted in the Houaikhing village cluster(2-4-2) In Case of a Sub-National REDD+ Project for Luang Prabang ProvinceThis study promoted initiatives in the Houaikhing village cluster, which is located in Luang Prabang Province.
As of 2011, Luang Prabang Province had forest acreage that totalled 1,966 thousands ha, which is approximately
70 times that of the Houaikhing village cluster. Furthermore, the whole of Luang Prabang Province employs thesame type of land use method as the Houaikhing village cluster; i.e. shifting cultivation etc. Using the conditions
mentioned above to perform a simple calculation, we estimate that if, in future, a REDD+ project were conducted
in Luang Prabang Province (on a sub-national basis), then reductions in GHG emissions and absorption amountsof over some millions ton-CO2 could be obtained during the 15 year period from 2011 to 2025.

(3) Activities for acquiring international understanding of REDD+ under the JCM(3-1) Ensuring Conformity with UNFCCC (under preparation)
The REDD+ project envisage in this study is to be rolled out from a project-based initiative to a quasi-national
based initiative (i.e. to cover Luang Prabang Province). This type of concept is fully consistent with REDD+
negotiations under UNFCCC. Consequently, we expect the outcomes of this study to be useful not only in Lao
PDR and the Mekong River basin, but also to prove helpful as materials for use in future UNFCC negotiations.

(3-2) Safeguard Considerations
The key safeguards to be taken into consideration when implementing REDD+ include environmental
safeguards (i.e. the conservation of biodiversity while promoting REDD+) and socio-economic safeguards(i.e. promoting an increase in the standard of living for local residents (especially the poor) while developing
REDD+). In addition, it helps the REDD+ project to proceed in a stable manner when such safe guards aretaken into consideration; and this fact allows the following issues to be tackled effectively; namely, (i)"non-permanence" and (ii) the possibility of the project's implementation causing "activities displacement."
To date not even UNFCCC has produced any clear guidelines on how to implement environmental- I 概要-2

12 -REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

safeguards (i.e. conserve biodiversity); and as a result a method has yet to be developed to quantitatively
prove whether or not environmental safeguards (the conservation of biodiversity) are properly functioning.
Nonetheless, the majority of REDD+ host countries have signed the Convention on Biological Diversity(including the target-country of this study, Lao PDR) and are constructing plans (strategies) to ensure theconservation of biodiversity on the basis of the convention. In the development of environmental safeguards(conservation of biodiversity), this study determined that, the adequacy of conservation methods, as well as
national strategies on biodiversity in the host country of Laos (which was established at the time theConvention on Biological Diversity was ratified) were strategies that fell under the sovereignty of theGovernment of Lao PDR; and planned the implementation of REDD+ on the basis of these strategies.

- I 概要-2

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