Japan-India SymposiumInternational House of Japan, Tokyo
13 December, 2012

Regional Security in Asia
Presentation
byAmbassador Hemant Krishan Singh
Former Ambassador of India to Japan
Chair Professor, ICRIER-Wadhwani Chair in India-US Policy Studies
ICRIER, New Delhi

Contents2
 Strategic Environment
 Security Challenges
 Regional Architecture Power Balance India’s Strategic Posture India’s Defence Posture India and the United States India and China
 India and Japan
 Conclusion

Strategic Environment3

 US “pivot”/“re-balancing” towards Asia, driven by geo-economic issuesof Asia’s economic potential plus geo-strategic dimension of ensuring
China’s “predictable” rise.
TPP for trans-Pacific economic integration.

East Asia Summit (EAS) for Asia-centered security architecture.

Modest expansion of military presence, strengthening of alliances and militaryexercises.

New guidelines for US-Japan alliance role, X-Band Radar in Southern Japan.

Strategic Environment4

 China’s “pivot” towards maritime domain expansion in East Asia

Two decades of double-digit defence spending growth; nominal defence budget
now double that of Japan, three times that of India.



Vigorous assertion of maritime territorial claims as “core national interest” toexpand control over sea lanes and resources.

Past tendency to use force against its most militarily capable neighbours, and to
enforce maritime claims.



Aggressive patrolling of Senkakus, announcement of maritime policing in South
China Sea.

Major reason for regional volatility.

Maritime Disputes
in East Asia

Security Challenges
6 Growing gap between economic inter-dependence and strategic competition as Asia

accommodates China’s growing power.

 Regional impact of rising nationalism in China.
 China’s growing assertiveness and coercive diplomacy raising concerns about its

future behavior as dominant Asian power. No evidence of softer line on freedom ofnavigation and diplomatic resolution to disputes at EAS.

 Destabilising collapse of ASEAN cohesion at AMM-PMC meetings in July andASEAN/EAS Summits in November, undermining “ASEAN centrality” in regionalaffairs.

 Stalled progress on binding code of conduct for resolution of maritime territorial

disputes in South China Sea.

 Growing need for an open and inclusive, normative Asian security order based oninternational law that draws in China as a responsible stakeholder.

 Critical importance of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific for Asia’s economic rise.

Crossroads
the Indo-Pacific
MaritimeofSecurity
World’s
third-largest
maritime
Japanand East
Asia trade area

Regional Architecture8 Restoring ASEAN as the pivot of a multi-polar regional environment.
 Consolidating the East Asia Summit as the principal forum for regional

political and security issues.
 Asian economic community building through ASEAN’s RCEP initiative andthe US-led TPP.
 Developing Indian Ocean Region Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) forum for the security of maritime commerce in the Indian OceanRegion littoral, based on “open regionalism”. (Japan, US are Observers)

Maritime Security : Energy
Indian Ocean Region - 80% of global energy tradeGlobal Power Balance10 US “decline” is relatively marginal.
 No other state is likely to match the comprehensive national power of theUS for several decades.
 US enjoys a controlling footprint on the international system and rulemaking.
 Likelihood of “constrained” multi-polarity in the foreseeable future.
 Asia has largely welcomed US “rebalancing”.

India’s Strategic Posture11

 India’s geo-strategic and geo-economic footprint is still limited while its

vulnerability to external factors is not.
 Losing ground against China, India needs preferential partnerships thatbolster its “strategic autonomy”.
 Ongoing transition from past ideological fixations (“Indian exceptionalism”)

to the pragmatic pursuit of national interests.
 Third largest economy by 2025, rising economic powerhouse like China istoday by the 2030s.

India’s Defence Posture12
 India’s geographic location at crossroads of Asia plus its Andaman andNicobar Islands in South East Asia give it a unique role and responsibility
across the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean Region.
 Continental, strategic and maritime power: significant regional potential.
 Major focus on air power ($35 billion) and Naval ($60 billion) expansion overthe next decade.
 INS ‘Baaz’ (August 2012) at Campbell Bay (Andaman & Nicobar) to expand

operational reach in South East Asia.
 Pursuing regional partnerships for maritime security, anti-piracy andhumanitarian assistance and disaster relief (IONS, “MILAN” regionalexercises).

India’s Maritime Security Role

Maritime Security
India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands

India and the United States15

 Transformation of India-US relations over the past decade has been a major

strategic gain for both countries.
 US support for India’s emergence as a major power; parallel interests which

are increasingly converging.
 Intensifying defence ties: joint exercises (59 since 2005) and arms trade ($ 9billion, likely to double).
 Cooperation on Asian security architecture (East Asia Dialogue, India-US-Japan Trilateral Dialogue).

India and China
16

 Relations are stable but strategic concerns and mistrust remain.
 Standstill on boundary dispute, periodic provocations.
 Nuclear and missile proliferation activities impacting India’s security.
 Single most important foreign policy and security challenge for India.

India and Japan17

 Unprecedented opportunity for a mutually reinforcing security postureand a vigorous economic partnership based on shared values.
 Enhanced maritime security cooperation and interoperability; annual

bilateral naval exercises; operational linkages between MSDF and Indian
Navy from Sasebo to Port Blair to Djibouti.
 Widening security engagement to include defence industrial cooperation.
 Cooperation on Asian security architecture (EAS, ADMM+, IOR-ARC).

India and Japan
Maritime Security Cooperation

H.K.Singh, ICRIER / T.Taniguchi, SRI

India and Japan
Maritime Security Cooperation

Source: Japan Ministry of Defense

India and Japan
Maritime Security Cooperation

Conclusion
21 Over the coming decade, both India and Japan will need to play anincreasing role to bolster their own national security and become net
providers of regional security as Asia’s largest maritime democracies.
 Mutual stake in each other’s success reflected in the “vibrant India,resurgent Japan” theme of the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.