国際安全保障情報「2024 年 8 月」
このコーナーは国際安全保障情報（旧：海洋安全保障情報）のポータルサイトであり、掲載する情報は、2024 年 8 月に、中国を含むアジア諸国と米欧のインターネット英文サイトから収集した情報の内、主としてインド太平洋地域の海洋安全保障、及び当該期間におけるトピック情報に関するものである。当該情報に示したリンク先は当該期間にフリーアクセスが可能であったもの（注：一部に月間アクセス記事数規制やサインを求めるサイトあり）。
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－目次－
１

米国関連

２

中国関係

３

台湾関係

４

米中関係

５

インド太平洋地域関連（1）全般（2）南シナ海（3）東シナ海
６

ロシア関係

７

ウクライナ戦争関連

８

北極関連・その他

１ 米国関連1. The Prioritization Imperative: A Strategy to Defend America’s Interests in a More DangerousWorldThe Heritage Foundation, August 1, 2024
Alex Velez-Green, a Senior Policy Advisor in The Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for NationalSecurity, and Robert Peters, a Research Fellow for Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense inHeritage’s Allison Center for National Security
Full Report（49 頁）
2. The U.S. Navy Isn’t Ready for Cold War II
National Security Journal, August 13, 2024
Bruce Stubbs was the director of Navy strategy and strategic concepts in the Office of the Chief of1

Naval Operations
3. How US military planning has shifted away from fighting terrorism to readying for tensions andconflict with China and Russia
The Conversation.com, August 26, 2024
Eric Rosenbach, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
4. US shifts nuclear focus to counter China’s growing arsenal
The Interpreter, August 29, 2024
Dr Amrita Jash, an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at
the Manipal Academy of Higher Education (Institution of Eminence) in Manipal, India

２ 中国関係
1. Geography Matters, Time Collides: Mapping China’s Maritime Strategic Space under Xi
Mapping China’s Strategic Space, The National Bureau of Asian Research, August 1, 2024
Andrew S. Erickson, a Professor of Strategy in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. NavalWar College
3. Chinese coastguard set to get new ship modelled on advanced Type 052D destroyer
South China Morning Post.com, August 14, 2024
4. Xi balances between professionalism and political control of the PLA
East Asia Forum, August 15, 2024
Yoram Evron, an Associate Professor of Chinese Studies and Political Science at the University ofHaifa
5. China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues forCongress
Congressional Research Service, Updated August 16, 2024
Full Report（81 頁）
6. Is China conducting ‘gray zone’ warfare for Russia?
Asia Times.com, August 19, 2024
Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu

2３ 台湾関係
1. Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat
Baker Institute, August 1, 2024
Gabriel Collins, the Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs at the Baker
Institute Center for Energy Studies, and Andrew S. Erickson, a professor of strategy in the U.S. Naval
War College’s China Maritime Studies InstituteFull Report（168 頁）
2. Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted War
Center for New American Security, August 6, 2024
Andrew Metrick, Philip Sheers and Stacie Pettyjohn
Full Report（23 頁）
3. China-Taiwan Special Edition Update, August 9, 2024
American Enterprise Institute and Institute for the Study of War, August 9, 2024
Dan Blumenthal | Frederick W. Kagan | Alexis Turek | Daniel Shats | Matthew Sperzel
4. The Pentagon Is Planning a Drone ‘Hellscape’ to Defend Taiwan
Wired.com, August 19, 2-24
Jared Keller, the managing editor of content at Military.com
5. Integrated patrols signal Beijing ‘asserting claims’ in Taiwan Strait, South China Sea
South China Morning Post.com, August 19, 2024
5. U.S.-Australia-Japan Trilateral Cooperation on Strategic Stability in the Taiwan Strait
CSIS, August 21, 2024
Ed By Charles Edel and Christopher Johnstone
Full Report（108 頁）
6. U.S. Destroyer Sails Through Taiwan Strait Transit
USNI News, August 22, 2024
7. Don’t Ever Invade China: Xi Jinping Prioritizes Border, Coastal, and Air Defense
War on the Rocks.com, August 27, 2024
Shanshan Mei, known by the pen name Marcus Clay, a political scientist at RAND, and Dennis J.
3

Blasko, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel with 23 years of service as a military intelligence officer
and foreign area officer specializing in China
8. Floating piers and sinking hopes: China’s logistics challenge in invading Taiwan
The Strategist, August 27, 2024
Erik Davis, a US Army War College fellow at Australian Strategic Policy Institute４ 米中関係
1. The Will and the Power: China’s Plan to Undermine Pax Americana
The National Interest, August 8, 2024
Robert D. Blackwill, the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on
Foreign Relations, and Richard Fontaine, the chief executive officer of the Center for a New AmericanSecurity
Mr. Blackwill and Mr. Fontaine are the co-authors of Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Riseof Chinese Power, published by Oxford University Press in June 2024.
2. China vs. America: The Geopolitical Olympics
The National Interest, August 9, 2024
Dr. Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University
3. Could the United States and China really go to war? Who would win?
Brookings, August 15, 2024
Michael E. O’Hanlon, Director of Research, Brookings
4. ‘Great Game’ Unfolds in Pacific as US, China Vie for Backing
Bloomberg.com, August 22, 2024
5. US–China Tensions: A Year of Posturing in the Pacific
Backgrounders, Geopolitical Monitor, August 26, 2024
Jonathan Jordan, Contributor for Geopolitical Monitor

５ インド太平洋地域関連（1）全般
1. The Problem of US Military Access in a Non-Aligned Indo-Pacific4The Diplomat.com, August 3, 2024
Lucas Myers, a senior associate for Southeast Asia at the Indo-Pacific Program of the Wilson Centerin Washington, D.C.
2. Backgrounder: The NATO Pivot toward Asia
Backgrounders, Geopolitical Monitor, August 5, 2024
Antonio Graceffo, an American economist, China analyst
4. The Quad is here to stayThe Strategist, August 12, 2024
Collins Chong Yew Keat, a foreign affairs security and strategy analyst at Universiti Malaya, Kuala
Lumpur, and Rahul Mishra, a senior research fellow at the German–Southeast Asian Center of
Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance, Thammasat University, Bangkok
5. The Rise of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific and the Challenge of Deterrence
Hudson Institute, August 16, 2024
Dr. Kenneth R. Weinstein, Japan Chair, Hudson Institute, and William Chou, deputy director ofHudson Institute’s Japan Chair
Full Report（44 頁）
5. Lingshui 36-1: Unfolding geopolitics over the ‘use’ of the Indo-Pacific
The Observer Research Foundation, August 22, 2024
Sayantan Haldar, a Research Assistant at the Observer Research Foundation
6. China Has Built the Strongest Military in the Indo-PacificReal Clear Defense.com, August 22, 2024
Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
7. What is an Italian Carrier Strike Group Doing in the Indo-Pacific?
War on the Rocks.com, August 29, 2024
Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy in East Asia and codirector of the Centre for Grand
Strategy at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London
8. Indian Navy Commissions Second Arihant-class SSBN
Naval News.com, August 29, 20245

9/ A Decade of India’s Act East Policy: Doing More With ASEAN
Commentary, RSIS, August 30, 2024
Nazia Hussain, Associate Research Fellow in the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), and Tan
Ming Hui, Associate Research Fellow in the Dean’s Office at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University
10. Undersea geopolitics and international law: Deep-sea mining in the Indo-Pacific
The Observer Research Foundation (ORF), August 31, 2024
Abhishek Sharma, a Research Assistant at ORF, and Udayvir Ahuja, a Programme Coordinator at ORF（2）南シナ海1. Marcos Jr cashing in on US while cooling fire with China
Asia Times.com, August 1, 2024
Richard Javad Heydarian, a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University ofthe Philippines
2. Legal complexities add to Beijing’s South China Sea disputes with its neighbours
South China Morning Post.com, August 2, 2024
3. South China Sea: what is Beijing’s ‘maritime militia’ and how does it support the PLA?
South China Morning Post.com, August 3, 2024
4. A respite for the Sierra Madre, but Philippines-China tensions remain
The Interpreter, August 6, 2024
Rommel Ong, retired from the Philippine Navy with rank of rear admiral in 2019, currently affiliatedwith the Ateneo School of Government
5. Philippines turns to maritime law for legal teeth against China
South China Morning Post.com, August 7, 2024
6. China’s Environmental Focus in South China Sea: Questionable Motivations
Fulcrum, August 7, 2024
Lye Liang Fook, Senior Fellow at the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute
7. Can China and the Philippines Save Their South China Sea Understanding?
6The Diplomat.com, August 8, 2024
Dr. Christian Schultheiss, senior research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public
Law and International Law
8. Philippines roping in more allies in South China Sea fightAsia Times.com, August 8, 2024
Richard Javad Heydarian, a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University ofthe Philippines
9. South China Sea: what can the Philippines do to counter Beijing’s island-building?
South China Morning Post.com, August 8, 2024
10. High hurdles for achieving squad goals in the South China Sea
East Asia Forum, August 9, 2024
Prisie L Patnayak, a PhD student at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University,New Delhi
11. South China Sea: Beijing bankrolls science missions as conflict heats up waterway
South China Morning Post.com, August 9, 2024
12. ASEAN needs more than security from the United States
East Asia Forum, August 10, 2024
Luke C Hahn, an independent international relations researcher based in Washington, DC.
13. China-Philippine tensions flare in skies over Scarborough Shoal waters
South China Morning Post.com, August 10, 2024
14. Second Thomas Shoal isn’t worth war with China
Asia Times.com, August 13, 2024
Lyle Goldstein, the Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities
14-1. Shifting Tactics at Second Thomas Shoal
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, August 22, 2024
15. Days of the Philippines’ dependence on the US are numberedSouth China Morning Post.com, August 15, 2024
7

Richard Javad Heydarian, a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University ofthe Philippines
16. The Philippines and West Philippine Sea: Bringing Deterrence Into the Picture
Fulcrum, August 15, 2024
Maria Gabriela Alano, a Project Officer for the Waypoints Project, a civil maritime security initiativethat aims to help strengthen the maritime security processes of the Philippines, and Deryk Baladjay,
faculty member at the International Studies Department of the De La Salle University-Manila
17. China’s new maritime goliath poised to patrol disputed seas
Asia Times.com, August 16, 2024
Gabriel Honrada, a Senior Security Correspondent with Asia Times
18. Xianbin Reef: Manila's provocation will end in failure
China Daily .com, August 18, 2024
Ding Duo, the deputy director and an associate research fellow at the Research Center for Ocean Lawand Policy, the National Institute for South China Sea Studies（丁铎、南海研究院副研究員）, andZhong Hui, an assistant researcher at the Division of International Exchanges, the National Institutefor South China Sea Studies
19. China Coast Guard Rams Philippine Cutters Near Disputed South China Sea Shoals
USNI News, August 19, 2024
19-1. PH ships damaged in Escoda collision
The Manila Times, August 20, 2024
19-2. China, Philippines Trade Accusations After Latest South China Sea Collision
The Diplomat.com, August 20, 2024
Sebastian Strangio, Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat
19-3. Philippines slams China coastguard’s ‘dangerous’ clash with its ships near Sabina Shoal
South China Morning Post.com, August 19, 2024
19-4. US assures Manila of support after PLA vessel’s ‘deliberate collision’ in South China Sea
South China Morning Post.com, August 21, 2024

819-5. Why has Sabina Shoal become a China-Philippines flashpoint?
South China morning Post.com, August 21, 2024
19-6. 40 Chinese Ships Blockade Resupply Mission to Philippine Coast Guard Flagship in South
China Sea
USNI News, August 26, 2024
19-7. South China Sea powder keg: trio of China-Philippines clashes in 5 days stokes alarmSouth China Morning Post.com, August 27, 2024
19-8. US offer to escort Philippines’ ships in South China Sea risks clashes with BeijingSouth China Morning Post.com, August 29, 2024
19-9. Chinese Vessels Ram, Surround Philippine Coast Guard Flagship in South China Sea
USNI News, August 31, 2024
20. Why there’s no quick fix in the South China Sea disputes, and war ‘cannot be ruled out’
South China Morning Post.com, August 19, 2024
Wu Shicun, Founding President, The National Institute for South China Sea Studies（呉士存、中国南海研究院創始院長）
21. In US lockstep, Philippines ‘de-risking’ from China
Asia Times.com, August 20, 2024
Richard Javad Heydarian, a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University ofthe Philippines
22. Philippines accuses China of ‘firing flares’ in ‘dangerous’ move near Scarborough Shoal
South China Morning Post.com, August 24, 2024
23. Why the Philippines should rethink its South China Sea name-and-shame game
South China Morning Post.com, August 25, 2024
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, President of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and Research
Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation
24. Philippines, Vietnam set to sign defense cooperation agreement
ABS-CBN News.com, August 28, 2024
925. Malaysia and the South China Sea Dispute: A Sea Change Under Prime Minister Anwar?
Fulcrum, August 28, 2024
Ian Storey, a Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
26. South China Sea: Philippines Hedges Its Bets Between U.S. and China
China US Focus.com, August 30, 2024
Richard Javad Heydarian, Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics, Polytechnic University of thePhilippines
27. China tells Philippines to ‘immediately withdraw’ from contested South China Sea atoll
South China Morning Post.com, August 30, 2024
28. Philippine Marines Eye New Concept for Archipelagic Defense
Naval News.com, August 30, 2024
（3）東シナ海1. Shifting the U.S.-Japan Alliance from Coordination to Integration
War on the Rocks.com, August 2, 2024
Jeffrey W. Hornung, the Japan lead for the RAND National Security Research Division and a seniorpolitical scientist at RAND, and Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute anda lecturer at Princeton University
2. NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership
9dashline.com, August 8, 2024
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Director of Political-Security Affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute
3. China isn’t getting the Japan it wants
PacNet, Pacific Forum, August 14, 2024
Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu
5. Japan’s Shifting Security Posture in Southeast Asia
Commentary, RSIS, August 27, 2024
Yopi Irianto Panut pursued a master’s degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from Leiden
University, The Netherlands, and Anugerah Akbar Maulana has a bachelor’s degree in International
Relations from Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Indonesia
106. Russian Territorial Concessions to End the Ukraine War Should Include Japan
American Enterprise Institute, August 29, 2024
Michael Rubin, Senior Fellow at AEI
7. REINVIGORATING THE EAST ASIA SUMMIT
Commentary, RSIS, August 29, 2024
R. M. Michael Tene, a senior diplomat at Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs

６ ロシア関係
1. Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad
RAND, August 13, 2024
Samuel Charap, Khrystyna Holynska
Full Report（24 頁）
2. Putin Is Vulnerable: Western Policy Masks Russian Weakness
Institute for The Study of War, August 14, 2024
Nataliya Bugayova, a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
3. Russia to Increase the Northern Fleet’s Combat Readiness and Strengthen Arctic Shipbuilding andPort Capacity
High North News.com, August 21, 2024

７ ウクライナ戦争関連
1. 戦況については、以下を参照されたし。毎日の戦況が地図付きで詳述されている。
UKRAINE CONFLICT UPDATESInstitute for the Study of War
2. The Second Battle of Kursk: An Omen of Doom?
The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 12, 2024
Walter Clemens, Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University
2-1. Ukraine Advances: How the West Can Help
The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 14, 202411

Ambassador Kurt Volker, a former US Ambassador to NATO and a former US Special Representativefor Ukraine Negotiations
2-2. Ukraine’s Pivot Changes the Narrative in Russia’s war; Outcome Remains Unclear
United States Institute of Peace (USIP), August 15, 2024
Mary Glantz, Ph.D., Acting Director, Russia and Europe Center at USIP
2-3. What military history tells us about Ukraine’s Kursk invasion
Defense One.com, August 15, 2024
Gian Gentile, the Associate Director at RAND’s Army Research Division, and Adam Givens, anAssociate Policy Researcher at RAND
2-4. Ukraine’s Kursk incursion: how the invasion of Russia could change the political focus ofthe conflict
The Conversation.com, August 15, 2024
Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham
2-5. Ukraine’s Russia Advance Changes War Narrative
Arab News.com, August 16, 2024
Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute2-6. The Kursk Offensive Dilemma
MickRyan.substack.com, August 19, 2024
Mick Ryan, Retired Australian Army Major General
2-7. Ukraine’s Kursk offensive: big stakes, big risks for both sides
Military Balance Blog, IISS, August 22, 2024
Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS
2-8. The False Promise of Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Into Russia
Foreign Affairs.com, August 28, 2024
Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and AdjunctSenior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations
4. Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), August 12, 2024
12

Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Mason Clark, Karolina Hird, Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna
Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Institute for the Study of War
Full Report（76 頁）

８ 北極関連・その他
1. Russian-Chinese Cooperation in the Arctic: Will NATO Step up to the Challenge?
The Asan Forum, August 5, 2024
Liselotte Odgaard, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
2. Preserving Peace Through Naval PowerReal Clear Defense.com, August 12, 2024
Peter A. Michel is a surface warfare officer veteran who served on an aircraft carrier and a guided
missile destroyer.
3. Careful: The Next World War Could Start Small
The National Interest, August 15, 2024
Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill, an associate professor of international relations at Concordia University
4. A new US, Russia, China nuclear arms race spells danger
The Strategist, August 16, 2024
Paul Dibb, emeritus professor in strategic studies at the Australia National University
5. Will the new U.S. defense strategy for the Arctic break the investment ice ceiling?
Arctic Today.com, August 20, 2024
Dr. Abbie Tingstad, a visiting professor of Arctic research at the Center for Arctic Study and Policy at
the U.S. Coast Guard Academy
7. The High Seas Treaty: Prospects and challenges
The Observer Research Foundation, August 23, 2024
Abhijit Singh, is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation13