Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global Climate
March, 2002
Korea Impact Project Team
- Jeon, Seong-Woo(KEI)- Jung, Hui-Cheul(KEI)- Lee, Dong-Kun(Sangmyung Univ.)

Korea Environment InstituteContents

1. Introduction
2. Study area
3. Data preparation
4. Data Analysis
5. Results and Proposals

2

Korea Environment Institute1. Introduction

Objectives, results and policy proposals□ Objectives- To prepare primary data and conduct the modeling of the forest distribution assessment
using AIM impact model- To verify the validity of the modeling results- To assess the change in economical efficiency of the forest through climate change□ Results and Policy Proposals- In case that the yearly mean movement growth rate of the forest is below than 0.25km/yr,

it is estimated that there will be a loss of US$3.5billion annually due to the futility offorest adaptation in 2100.
- In the adaptation study of specific species, the Pine (Pinus densiflora) which has
1.5km/yr moving velocity is well adapted. but the unsuitable plant area ratio will
increase to 29% .
- The establishment of the integrated impact assessment is necessary to fully assess
the impact of forest and other ecosystem fields. This includes a correspondence planat national level and continuous establishment of the basic data.
3Korea Environment Institute2. Study area

Study area

The Korean peninsula isseparated to 4 small regions
regarding climate and forestType.

< Study area (longitude 120°~135°, latitude 30°~ 45°) >4Korea Environment Institute3. Data preparation

GCMs, IPCC DDC< Data > IPCC Data Distribution Center An IS92a-type forcing scenario
 Up to 2100 and forcing details are greenhouse gas only mean-monthly files , Time slice is 2070-2099
 GCM• CCSR /NIES• CCCma• CSIRO MK2• HadCM2• ECHAM4
5

Korea Environment Institute3. Data preparation

Current Temperature and Precipitation< Current Temperature & Precipitation >Temperature measured stations,227 stations(UNEP/GHCN+KMA)

Precipitation, 199 stations(UNEP/GHCN+KMA)< Total precipitation in present day (mm/yr) >6

Korea Environment Institute3. Data preparation

Temperature Correction using DEM & lapse rate

< Temperature Correction using DEM & lapse rate >< Terrain Corrected Temperature >IDSW< 30 arc seconds DEM >< Terrain height deviation
distribution >7< Measured monthly temperature lapse rate (C/m) >

Mon.

1

2

3

456

7

8

9

10

11

12C/m

0.00800.00830.00830.00790.00730.00650.00580.00540.00550.00580.00650.0073

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

Climate change impact< Mean temperature & precipitation change in summer season, relation withΔTasm2.0℃
>
ΔTasm
0.5℃
1.0℃
1.5℃
2.5℃
3.0℃
3.5℃
4.0℃
Temp.
(℃)

Precip.
(%)

A

0.6

1.1

1.7

2.3

2.8

3.4

4.0

4.5

B

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.1

4.7

C

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.2

4.8

D

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.3

4.9

A

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0

B

2.8

5.6

8.3

11.1

13.9

16.7

19.4

22.2

C

2.9

5.8

8.6

11.5

14.4

17.3

20.2

23.1

D

3.6

7.2

10.7

14.3

17.9

21.5

25.0

28.6

< Mean temperature & precipitation change in winter season, relation with Δtasm >
ΔTasm

Temp.
(℃)

Precip.
(%)

8A

0.5℃
0.7

1.0℃
1.3

1.5℃
2.0

2.0℃
2.7

2.5℃
3.4

3.0℃
4.0

3.5℃
4.7

4.0℃
5.4

B

0.9

1.8

2.6

3.5

4.4

5.3

6.1

7.0

C

1.0

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

5.8

6.8

7.8

D

1.0

2.0

3.1

4.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

8.1

A

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

-1.6

-2.0

-2.4

-2.8

-3.2

B

1.2

2.5

3.7

4.9

6.2

7.4

8.7

9.9

C

1.0

2.1

3.1

4.15.2

6.2

7.2

8.3

D

2.8

5.6

8.4

11.2

14.0

16.7

19.5

22.3
Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

Climate change impact< The climate change impact on the Korea peninsula(climate) >Precipitation

Temperature
ΔTasm

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

AOO

++

+++

0000B

O

++

+++

+++

0000C

O

+++

+++

+++

0000DO

+++

+++

+++

000+

Sign------< Legend0 >

+++

+++

Unit

< 2.25

2.25
~2.5

2.5~
2.75

> 2.75℃,
increase-15~ 1515~ 3030~ 45> 45%,
changeTemp.
changePrecip.
change9< -45-45~ -30-30~ -15

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The Bio-Climate Classification by HOLDRIDGE Model< Holdridge Class Change Result from 1990yr to 2100yr>(example of Scenario=IS92a,GCM=HadCM2)

Subpolar Tundra: Top of the Mt. BAEKDU
Boreal Wet Forest: Around of the Mt. BAEKDU
Boreal Rainforest: GAEMA Highlands
Cool Temperate Wet Forest: From BAEKDU to JIRI Mountain
Range, most parts in North Korea
Warm Temperate Moist Forest: Middle and South Region⇓Subtropical Dry Forest: South Region

10Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The Bio-Climate Classification using warmth index< Bio-Climate Classification using Warmth Index >Warmth Index(WI) = Σ(Tmean,monthly -5),
in monthly mean temp. is more than 5℃

Coldness Index(CI) = -Σ(Tmean,monthly -5),
in monthly mean temp. is more than 5℃

11Forest ClassRange

Boreal Conifer Forest

WI < 55

Cool Temperate Forest
Northern Part

55 ~ 85

Cool Temperate Forest
Middle Part

85 ~ 110Cool Temperate Forest
Southern Part

WI > 110

Warm Temperate Forest

CI < 10Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

Verification of Model using warmth index and vegetation map< Enlargement of Cool temperature middle part in each classification ><Holdridge>

12<Warmth Index><Vegetation Map >(Quercus mongolica)

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

Application HOLDRIDGE Model< Decrease in temperature/boreal forest, relation with ΔTasm >
0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

A(%change)
B(%change

2.2

4.4

14.8

28.5

44.1

57.76977.9)
C(%change)D(%change00

0.3

4.1

13.3

30.7

46.361.8345.47

9.6

14.5

21.2

29.40000026.711.9)- South region

100If ΔTasm=2℃, forest distribution change will be 30%
If ΔTasm=4℃, change rate will be more than 80%

90

Temperate & Boreal forest change, %80

Region A70Region B

6050

If ΔTasm=2℃, forest distribution change will be 4%
If ΔTasm=4℃, change rate will be more than 60%
Forest type will be changed dramatically. If tree
moving velocity is so fast, forest will be partly
withered.

- East region

4030Region C20Region D10002

Global temperature incerease,13- West region

4If ΔTasm=2℃, forest distributed change will be 7%
If ΔTasm=4℃, change rate will be more than 30%- North region in the Korean peninsula
If ΔTasm=2℃, there will be no change in temperate/boreal forest
If ΔTasm=4℃, change rate will be 12% in western partoC
Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

Application HOLDRIDGE Model< Holdridge Classification Results in 2*CO2 >< CCCma >< CSIROMK2>

14< HadCM2 >< ECHAM4 >< CCSR/NIES>

Korea Environment InstituteThe climate impact of the bio-climate classes and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

4. Data Analysis< The Climate Change Impact on the Korean peninsula(temperate/boreal forest) >Forest change(Temperate/Boreal)
ΔTasm

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

A

000-----------

B

00000------

C

000000--D00000000+

++

+++

Unit

<Legend>15

notation------0Forestchange< -60-60~ 40-40~ 20-20~ 0%change

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The climate impact of the bio-climate classes and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

IS92a Scenario

HadCM2 GCM(climate sensitivity=2.5C,mean temp. increase=2.08C)(climate sensitivity=2.5C,mean temp.increase=2.08C)

Davis – Forest moving velocity

Holdridge Classification(0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 km/yr)(39 Classes)

Cramer & Leemans Classification(14 Classes)

GeographicInformation
SystemImpact prediction
according to forest moving
Visualization ofarea simulation

NCEAS Model16

Estimation of Economic loss
according to forest distribution changeKorea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

CRAMER & LEEMANS classification< Changing table of Bio-climate Classifications >NCEAS
ModelCramer & Leemans classes(tree area)

Holdridge classes
30. Subtropical wet forest
31. Subtropical rain forest

1. Tropical Rain Forest

Tropicalforest

37. Tropical moist forest
38. Tropical wet forest
39. Tropical rain forest

2. Subtropical Forest

29. Subtropical moist forest

3. Dry Tropical Forest

Holdridge classification Result

28. Subtropical dry forest
36. Tropical dry forest
22. Warm temperal moist forest

4. Warm Temperate Forest

23. Warm temperal wet forest
24. Warm temperal rain forest

Temperate/Borealforest

15. Cool temperal moist forest

5. Cool Temperate Forest

16. Cool temperal wet forest
17. Cool temperal rain forest
9. Boreal moist forest

6. Boreal Forest

10. Boreal wet forest
11. Boreal rain forest

Cramer & Leemans classification scheme
17

Tree

Grass

Leemans classification Result
Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

CRAMER & LEEMANS Classification< Cramer and Leemans Classification(Scenario=IS92a, GCM=HadCM2) >- 1990yr -18- 2100yr -Korea Environment InstituteForest impact and change patternrelation with tree moving velocity4. Data Analysis< Forest impact and change pattern relation with tree moving velocity >Warm Temperate Forest and Cool Temperate Forest are mainly
distributed the Korean peninsula in present day, and the whole placeof GAEMA highlands is covered by Boreal Forest
Bio-climate class in 2100 will not be changed, but distribution andarea of forest will be changed
According to mean moving velocity(0.25km/yr) of trees in 2100,
there will be no place where forest withered in the Korean peninsulaHigh extinctive area

South Korea : 14% of 99,800㎢;South coast and Western part of Cheonla-province, mostlyTemperate forest

North Korea : 17.9% of 122,762㎢; Inland of Pyungan-province and the borders, Eastern part ofHamkyung-province and so on, mostly Cool temperate forest

19

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The climate impact of the bio-climate classes and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity< Forest impact and change pattern in 2100, relation with tree moving velocity >(Unit : area%)

WitherExtinctive20

c* : Bio-climate class is changed, but there is no invasion of an exotic plantfrom the out of moving range during 110yr

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

An economic loss by forest change< An Economic loss of tree region in NCEAS Model >(Unit : 1994 U.S million$/yr)

South korea
Treemovingvelocity

0.25
km/yr

0.50

1.0

North korea
2.0

0.25
km/yr

99,800㎢

area

0.50

1.0

2.0

122,762㎢

Area %of c*

14.0%

5.2%

--

17.9%

6.8%

0.2%

-loss

4225

1555

-

-

6636

2512

71-

Increased
grassland
value

3246

1195

-

-

4144

1569

44-

Net loss

976

360-

-

2492

943

27-

Ref : Costanza, R. et al.(1997), The Value of the the world's ecosystem services andnatural capital. NATURE, 387, pp 253-260

21

Korea Environment InstituteThe climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

4. Data Analysis(current)(CSIROMK2)(ECHAM4)(HadCM2)(CCCma)(CCSR/NIES)< The green color shows suitable area for pine using WI in 2050 >22

Korea Environment InstituteThe climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

4. Data Analysis(current)(CSIROMK2)(CCCma)(ECHAM4)(HadCM2)(CCSR/NIES)< The green color shows suitable area for pine using WI in 2100 >23

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

CRAMER & LEEMANS Classification< The Adaptation Pattern of A Species by the Climate Change >a)

b)
c)

d)

e)

24

Korea Environment InstituteThe climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

4. Data Analysis< The Adaptation Pattern of the Pine in 2050 >(CSIROMK2)(CCCma)(ECHAM4)

Suitable ⇒ Suitable
Suitable⇒Unsuitable
Unsuitable⇒Suitable(Nat.)
Unsuitable⇒Suitable(A. I.)
Unsuitable⇒Unsuitable
25(HadCM2)(CCSR/NIES)

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity< The adaptation result of pine tree in 2050 >26

Korea Environment InstituteThe climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity

4. Data Analysis< The Adaptation Pattern of the Pine in 2100 >(CSIROMK2)(CCCma)(ECHAM4)

Suitable ⇒ Suitable
Suitable⇒Unsuitable
Unsuitable⇒Suitable(Nat.)
Unsuitable⇒Suitable(A. I.)
Unsuitable⇒Unsuitable
27(HadCM2)(CCSR/NIES)

Korea Environment Institute4. Data Analysis

The climate impact of the pine and adaptation
relation with tree moving velocity< The adaptation result of pine tree in 2100 >28

Korea Environment Institute5. Results & Proposals
 There is a big deviation by GCM, but IPCC IS92a scenarios showsthat 12-32% of the forest until the year 2100 in Korean peninsula will
be in danger.
 In case that the yearly mean movement growth rate of the forest is

below than 0.25km per year, it is estimated that there will be a loss of
1.3-3.5billion US$ annually due to the futility of forest apatation.
 The establishment of the integrated impact assessment is necessary tofully assess the impact of forest and other ecosystem fields. This
includes a correspondence plan at national level and continuous
establishment of the basic data.
29

Korea Environment InstituteKorea Landuse/cover classification ProjectClassification Level
Level I
(7 classes)

Level II
(23 classes)

Residential

111

Tenement house areas

112

Apartment areas

113

BroadLeavedforest
ForestLand

300

Coniferousforest

Level III(48 classes)

CODE

Natural Broad leaved forest

311

Planted Broad leaved forest

312

Natural coniferous forest

321

Planted coniferous forest

322

310

320

121

Commercial areas131

Mixed330

Mixed forest

331

Commercial
And
Services

130

Mixed com. & services area132

NaturalGrass

410

Natural Grassland

411

Gas & Oil station

133

Golf Area

420

Grassland in Golf-course

421

OtherGrass
Land

Grassland in Cemetery park

431

430

Avenue tress

432

Other

433

InlandWetland

510

Inland Wetland

511

CoastalWetland

Intertidal flats

521

520

Salines
Open pit areas ofIndustrial minerals

522

Open areas mining of rock
Open pit areas ofother minerals

612

Beaches

621

River bank

622

140

Recreation facilities

141

Gym. & Stadium

142

Grass
Land

400

100

Rice
Land

200

Level II(23 classes)

Industrial areasPublic30Detached house areas

Level I(7 classes)

120

Transportation

Agricultural
Land

CODE

Industrial

Recreation
Urban or
Built-up
Land

110

Level III(48 classes)

150

151
152

Rail networks

153

Road
Other transportsion &communication area
Environmental
Elementary facilities

154

Electronic plant facilities

162

Education & Miltary facilities

163

210

Vinyl House

230

Orchard

240
250

500

Mining
Area

161
Barren
Land

610

600
Other
Barren

620

611

613

Other public facilities

164

Permanently Irrigated land

211

Other(construction etc.)623

Non-irrigated land

212

Water courses

711

Water bodies

712

Sea & Ocean

721

Fileds220

Wetland155

160

Field
Land

Other
Agri. Land

Airports
Port areas

221산간지방의 밭222

Vinyl house

231

Orchard241

Tree planting areas

251

Pasture lands

252

Water

700

InlandWater

710

MarineWater

720

Korea Environment InstituteKorea Landuse/cover classification ProjectClassifying Area

Classification Level II
Classified Area
Classification Results in Seoul, kyonggi PovinceLandsat TM+IRS 1C
Fusion Image

Results

31

To be Classified Area

Korea Environment InstituteThank you!!
32

Korea Environment Institute