The 25th AIM International Workshop, National Institute for Environmental Studies, November 18-19, 2019

Analysis of GHG emission compositions
and national reduction targets in Asian countries
Tomoki Hirayama, Go Hibino and Yuko Motoki, Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.

BackgroundPurpose● The need for an acceleration of NDC reduction targets at the country level•● Organizing GHG compositions of emissions in major Asian developing countries

In preparation for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in addition to creating a low-carbon development
strategy, it is necessary to review the NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) at the country level. NDC targets
already proposed at the individual country level is not sufficient to achieve the 2 degree and 1.5degree targets
outlined in the Paris Agreement, and it will be necessary to accelerate GHG emissions reduction targets.

● The need for emissions reductions in line with the development of Asian countries•

In Asia, where GHG emissions are expected to increase significantly, there is a need for both economic
development and strengthened efforts to reduce emissions, particularly in countries with high GHG emissions,such as China and India.

● The need for support from developed countries to developing countries•

For the NDC of Thailand and Indonesia and so forth, in addition to the reduction targets set by those countries,
there are also reduction targets applicable when international support is available, and there is expected to betechnical support from Japan among other countries.

● Consideration of NDC reduction targets set by each country● Analysis of leeway for the accelerated of reduction targets using a bottom-up model● Analysis of reduction contribution by Japanese technology using a bottom-up model• In this study, in order to clarify the possibility of further carbon reductions in the Asian region,
after organizing the current structure of GHG emissions, we conducted future emissions
estimations using a technology selection framework.
• And we performed quantitative analysis on the relationship between factors such as the furtherdeepening of GHG reduction targets set at the country level and the emissions pathways that areconsistent with hitting the 2 degree target.

Trend Analysis

Fuel
燃料燃焼
combustion

Industrial
産業プロセスprocess

Waste
廃棄物

Agri農業
cultureFugitive漏洩他

 Japanese technology can contribute to curbing theincrease in emissions associated with future
economic development in Asian countries.
• Fuel combustion, industrial processes and waste
account for over 95% of GHG emissions in Japan.
• When looking at past reduction, technologies in thesefields stands out as a strength for Japan.

1.6 1.8

2.0

中国

インド

インドネシアThailand

2015

2000

1990

2015

タイ

Indonesia

India

2000

1990

2015

0.0

China

• In China and India, the target value is the 2030 reductions
target, in terms of emissions reduction unit per GDP unit.
• In Indonesia and Thailand, as well as BaU reduction targets for2030, there are also conditional targets premised oninternational support, such as technology transfer and funding.

2.66

長期戦略2050
LTS

-20%

3.7

NDC2030

GHG

4.5

NDC2030

Thailand

Japan
日本

5.9

2.6 2.7

2.5

2000

-25%

BaU in
2030

2015

2000

1990

2015

2000

1990

2015

ASEAN
ASEAN

Vietnam
ベトナム

-41%

6.3

NDC2030

Thailand
タイ

2000

1990

2015

2000

1990

2015

2000

Indonesia
インドネシア-29%

BaU in
2030

3.7

3.3

NDC2030

India
インド

GHG

2005

4.0

4.5 4.2

4.2 4.1

4.1

NDC2030

China
中国

1990

1990

Indonesia
2015

0

2000

0

2015

500

2000

2,000

GHG/GDP -33～-35%

6.0

1990

India

1,000

5.9NDC2030

4,000

2005

8.0

NDC2030

1,500

CO2/GDP -60～-65%

8.7

8.4

2015

6,000

China

10.6 10.5

9.6

2000

2,000

9.2

1990

8,000

10.0

NDC2030

2,500

10.3

NDC2030

10,000Base Year

2015

3,000

Globally equalized
GHG emission percapita
To achieve 2.0
target
1.4 - 2.8
tCO2eq/capita

12.0

2000

12,000Target in 2030

Conditional
Target in2030

Analysis of GHG per capita in Asia

1990

3,500

Summary of NDCs in Asian developing countries
GHG Emission per capita[tonCO2eq/GDP/year]

14,0001990

GHG Emission [MtonCO2eq]

GHG emission composition by source in Asia

日本Japan In the current NDC targets of individual countries, GHG emissions
exceed emissions per capita needed to achieve the 2 degree
target. When considering future expected economic growth, it may
not be possible to achieve the targets even by 2050.
• It is apparent that NCD targets must increase and it is highly
feasible that Japan's energy-saving and low-carbon technologies
can contribute to increasing those targets.

Methodology
Model structure of AIM/Enduse

Example of technology dataset

 In order to conduct quantitative analysis of NDC reduction targets in China andIndia, GHG emissions up to 2050 were estimated using a sequential dynamicalsystem technology selection framework, AIM/Enduse.
• A sequential dynamical system is used to estimate the combination oftechnologies that minimizes total costs (technical introduction, operation andmaintenance costs) to meet service demands imposed externally.
• For the socio-economic scenario, energy services were calculated based on a
“SSP2” which concerns factors such as moderate population growth and GDP,and is taken from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways.
• GHG emissions scenarios were analyzed in a countermeasure scenario thatachieves a reduction equivalent to the 2 degree target in 2050, in addition to thecurrent BaU scenarios.
• We will work in collaboration with state researchers in the relevant countries torefine estimates while incorporating regional policy and technical information.

●Low Carbon Technologies
Energy Sector

Efficient power generation; coal and gas with CCS; hydropower; wind power;
solar PV; geothermal; bioenergy; ocean; PHS; reinforcing electricity
interconnection; Hydrogen generation (electrolysis)

Transport Sector

Efficient train, maritime, and aviation; NGV; BEV, PHEV; FCEV; biofuels; ecodriving

Building Sector

Energy-efficient buildings (e.g. insulation); high-efficiency equipment andappliances; electric heat pump water heaters; electrification for heating,cooling, and cooking; energy-management systems

Industry Sector

Energy-efficient industrial processes; CCS for iron making and cement lime;
high-efficient boiler, furnace, and motor; industrial heat pump; agricultural
machines; bioenergy use●End-of-pipe Technologies• Stock dynamics• Service demand
Minimize Total Cost (TC) at year t
1 Dj
Aj,l

Xl




TC= Initial investment cost ($)
S (l )  S (l )  1   r (l )  w(l )lT (l ) + Operating and maintenanceD  j  : Service demand quantity of service type jS  l  : Stock of device l
cost ($/year)A j , l  : Output of service j per unit operation of device l
S  l  : Stock of device l in the previous year
X l  : Operating quantity of device l+ Energy cost ($/year)
T  l  : Life time of device l+ Payment for energy tax ($/year)r  l  : Recruited quantity of device lw  l  : Retired quantity of device l+ Payment for emission tax ($/year)

Desulfurizer

Limestone injection, Wet FGD, High-efficiency FGD

Denitrator

Combustion improvement, Selective reduction, Non-selective reduction

Dust Collector

Cycron, Wet scrubber, Fabric filters, Electronic precipitator

Result Emissions of both the ーBaU and ーCountermeasure scenarios may fall below the reduction targets. In particular, emissions in 2030 that pass through the countermeasure scenario will beequivalent to about half of the reduction target.

2020

2025

1.8.E+10

SSP2(OECD2013)_▲60%

Plot NDC target "Reducing CO2
emissions per GDP by 60-65%
compared to 2005 by 2030"

SSP2(OECD2013)_▲65%-2.0.E+09

2045
5,363

2050 37,776 2055
1.8E+1033,582-2E+09WEO(2018)_▲60%

2010
2024
2038

WEO(2018)_▲65%

1.6E+1028,712

1.2.E+10

1.4E+10
1.2E+10Emissionof BaU
1E+10

1.0.E+10

8.0.E+09

8E+09

Mitigation

6.0.E+09

6E+09

4.0.E+09

4E+09

7.0.E+09

6.0.E+09

5.0.E+092010

2015

2020

20252030

Plot NDC target "Reduce GHG
emissions per GDP by 33-35%
compared to 2005 by 2030"(Displayed assuming that CO2
emission intensity = GHG
emission intensity)

2000 2040 2040
2035
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲33%

2045

1.8.E+10
1.8E+10
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲35%

SSP2(OECD2013)_▲33%

SSP2(OECD2013)_▲35%-2.0.E+09

2,432

2050

19,7132055
8E+09

12,208
7E+09-2E+09WEO(2018)_▲33%
WEO(2018)_▲35%

13,4762E+09

0.0.E+00

0Emission

発電部門 排出量
運輸部門 排出量
他部門 排出量
産業部門 削減寄与
民生部門 削減寄与
排出量_対策

産業部門 排出量民生部門 排出量
発電部門 削減寄与
運輸部門 削減寄与
他部門 削減寄与
排出量_なりゆき

6E+09

5E+09
Emissionof BaU

4.0.E+09

4E+09

3.0.E+09

3E+09

2.0.E+09

2E+09

Mitigation

Emission of Countermeasure (2 degree in 2050)

2.0.E+09-2.0.E+09

2005
8.0.E+09

Emission of Countermeasure (2 degree in 2050)
1.0.E+09

1E+09

0.0.E+00

0Emission

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

1.4.E+102035
20401.8E+10
1.8.E+10
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲65%

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

CO2 Emission [tonCO2]

1.6.E+10

2030

2030

2035

2015

2005

20002040
Mitigation(Others)
2.0.E+10
Mitigation (Building)
Mitigation (Transport)
Mitigation (Industry)
Mitigation (Power)
Emission (Ohters)
Emission (Building)
Emission (Transport)
00.0.E+00
Emission (Industry)Emission (Power)

2010

2010

GDP(PPP) [billion.USD]

CO2 Total emission [Mt…

2005

GDP Scenarios

2010
2024
2038

2000 2040
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲60%

2030

Estimated emissions and reductionof India’s BaU scenario and Countermeasure scenario

CO2 Emission [tonCO2]

2005

2035

GDP(PPP) [billion.USD]

CO2 Total emission [Mt…

GDP Scenarios

20002040
Mitigation(Others)
2.0.E+10
Mitigation (Building)
Mitigation (Transport)
Mitigation (Industry)
Mitigation (Power)
Emission (Ohters)
Emission (Building)
Emission (Transport)
00.0.E+00
Emission (Industry)Emission (Power)

2010

Estimated emissions and reductionof China’s BaU scenario and Countermeasure scenario-2E+09

発電部門 排出量
民生部門 排出量
産業部門 削減寄与
他部門 削減寄与
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲60%
SSP2(IIASA2013)_▲65%

Outlook

産業部門 排出量
他部門 排出量
運輸部門 削減寄与
排出量_対策SSP2(OECD2013)_▲60%
SSP2(OECD2013)_▲65%

運輸部門 排出量
発電部門 削減寄与
民生部門 削減寄与
排出量_なりゆき
WEO(2018)_▲60%
WEO(2018)_▲65%

 We will continue to conduct analysis while expanding the scope of research, such as the target countries, and the intensity of the emission scenarios (2 degree target, as well as 1.5).
 We will continue to prepare data on the efficiency and price information of Japanese technology going forward, to refine the model output from AIM/Enduse.
 We will work in collaboration with state researchers in the relevant countries to refine estimates while incorporating regional policy and technical information.

Conclusion
 In the current NDC targets, GHG emissions exceed emissions per capita needed to achieve the 2 degree target. And when considering future economic growth, it may not be
possible to achieve the targets by 2050 either. It is apparent that NCD targets must increase and it is highly feasible that Japan's energy-saving and low-carbon technologies
can contribute to increasing those targets.
 In the Asian region, the ratio of emissions from energy combustion and waste is high, and in developing Asian countries, for which future economic development isexpected, there is a high possibility that contribution to emissions reduction can be expected through the spread of decarbonization technology from Japan.
We express our sincere thanks to Prof. Shukla and Prof. Jiang. This research is supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund ”Assessment of Further Reduction ofGHG Emissions in Asian Countries and Benefit to Japan by Assisting their Reduction Efforts (2-1908)”, Ministry of the Environment Japan.