The Analysis on the substitution of renewable energy and traditional energy, andreduction of CO2 emission, Beijing
School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba,Yu ZOU *School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of TsukubaFeng XU
School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Takeshi MIZUNOYASchool of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Yoshiro HIGANO
1 Introduction and background
It has become a hot issue in energy, economy, and environment to mitigate and adapt to climate change inChina. The Chinese government has announced to lower its CO2 emission per unit of GDP by 40%-45% by2020 compared with the 2005 level, and to increase the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy
consumption to 15% by 2020. China is currently in the period of accelerated industrialization andurbanization.
Beijing, as the capital of China and the international city, is our country's second-largest city of energy
consumption. With steadily rising energy demand, which means that Beijing's CO2 emissions will continue
to increase. Beijing is under high pressure and faces difficulties in controlling the growth of CO2 emissions.
However, its energy structure is not reasonable, its clean energy is not high, and the environment pollution
is still a serious problem. In order to reduce the CO2 emissions and optimize the energy structure, it isnecessary to adopt the new environmental economic policies to develop the renewable energy. 2011,
Beijing issued “12th Five-Year Plan” and New energy and Renewable Energy Development Plan. In theTwelve Five-Year Program period (2011–2015) the goal is for the GDP about 8%, and for the energy
consumption by 2015 to be less than 90 million tce. Moreover, reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by
18 % and CO2 energy consumption per unit of GDP by 17% from 2010 levels. As the non-fossil energy,
renewable energy will play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions.
Economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions
With economic development, population growth and urban expansion, energy shortage and changing
climatic conditions are emerging in Beijing city. Although Beijing has made great progress in economy,
while Energy consumption and CO2 emission is also growing rapidly (Table 1).

Table 1 Economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions
YearGDP(billion RMB)

Energy consumption(million tce)

Energy related CO2emission(million t)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

316.2
370.8
431.5
500.7
603.3
697.0
811.8
984.7
1111.51215.31411.4

41.4
42.3
44.4
46.5
51.4
55.2
59.0
62.9
63.3
65.7
69.5

61.8
62.4
64.8
66.1
75.6
76.2
78.5
85.7
89.3
91.1
91.6

Sources: Souces: 2011 Beijing Statistical Yearbook( tce :ton of standard coal equivalent )This table shows that the GDP reach 1411.4 billion RMB in 2010, with the primary, secondary and tertiaryindustries accounting for 0.9%, 24.0% and 75.1%, respectively. Beijing's total energy consumption willgrow from 41.4 million tce in 2000 to 69.5 million tce in 2010, which means that a GDP growth rate of
16.1% can be achieved while energy consumption annual growth rate is 5.3% in the last 10 years. Totalenergy related CO2 emission reach 91.6 million t in 2010, with a growth rate of 4.0% per year from 2000 to2010. CO2 emissions are discharged by coal accounts for 48% of total CO2 emissions in 2010. Among theindustries and sectors, electricity and heat Sector consumed 53% of total coal consumption. Therefore, how
to decrease the consumption of fossil energy have become the hot issues.
Energy consumption structure and Governmental plan
Beijing area’s energy consumption is developing toward the encouraging direction. On one hand, theoutput level of energy consumption is unceasingly declining, it is completely coinciding with governmental
policy that is to build a resource-conserving society , promoting the development of the economy well andfast is not at the expense of large amount of resources; on the other hand, the proportion of clean energy act
as an upward trend, and coal and other primary energy showed a downward trend, so the energy structure
has been continuously optimized to make a positive role in improving Beijing's air quality and theenvironmental standards.

Table 2 Energy consumption structure
Year

Coal

Oil

Naturalgas

New energy andRenewable Energy

Electricity

2005
2010
2015

39.7%
30.3%
16.8%

33.6%
30.4%
28.3%

6.4%
13.1%
24.4%

1.0%
3.2%
6.1%

19.3%
22.4%
24.4%

Sources: 2010 Beijing Statistical Yearbook
Beijing, “12th Five-Year” Energy Development Plan (2011-2015)
Table 2 shows that during 2005-2010, Beijing’s energy consumption structure has been continuouslyoptimized. The proportion of Coal is declining in the total consumption, the proportion of coal fell
from39.7 % in 2005 to 16.8% in 2010. With the rapid development of the country’s economy, thecontinued improvement of people's living standard, the upgrading of the consumption structure, as well as
more and more environmental control efforts, the energy consumption of electricity, natural gas, andrenewable resources have been rapidly growing, the proportion has been rising. In 2010, the consumptionof the electricity, natural gas and renewable energy respectively are 15.6 million tons of standard coal, 9.1
million tons of standard coal, and 2.2 million tons of standard coal, accounting respectively for theproportion of energy consumption are 22.4%, 13.1%, 3.2%, Compared to 2005, they respectively rose 3.1%,6.7 percentage points and 2.2%, the proportion of New energy and Renewable Energy will reach 6.1% in2015.
"The 12th Five Year Plan Summary Beijing National economy And Social development in Beijing" hascleared out main development targets of Beijing in the next 5 year: to continue to maintain the capital’s
economic development steady and rapid, and on the basis of optimizing structure, improving the efficiency
and reducing the resource consumption.
In 2010, renewable energy resources account for only 6.1% of total energy consumption. However, Beijing
has abundant renewable energy resources. in 2011, Beijing issued“the New energy and Renewable Energy
Development Plan”, as fallow the table 3:
Table 3“the New energy and Renewable Energy Development Plan”
2010

2015

General goal Total of new energy andrenewable energy : 2,230 thousand tce
Solar
980 thousand tce
the capacity of photovoltaic power
generation: 2.3 MW ;Geothermal 785 thousand tce

Total of new energy andrenewable energy : 5,500 thousand tce
2920 thousand tce
the capacity of photovoltaic power
generation: 250 MW ;1,500 thousand tce

Biomass
360 thousand tce
Wind
80 thousand tce
Hydropower 28 thousand tce

890 thousand tce
190 thousand tce

Souses: Beijing, “12th Five-Year” New Energy and Renewable Energy Development PlanSolar: Beijing has abundant solar energy resources. It receives an annual total isolation that exceeds 5GJ/m2 with more than 2600 hours of sunshine a year. In 2010, solar energy accounts for 44% of the total
new energy and renewable energy. Geothermal: in Beijing, high temperature geothermal resources suitablefor heat generation are mainly located in changping district. Most of the resources in other areas are oflower temperature. Biomass: Beijing has a wide range of biomass resources that can be used for energy
supply. these resources include agricultural and forest residues, Waste oils, Livestock ,poultry manure andMunicipal waste. The total of availability of biomass resources is 2 million tce. Wind: the regions withfavorable wind resources are concentrated in the northwest of Beijing. It has an annual average wind speedof over 6 m/s.
2 Methodology and purpose
Based on the above discussion, we should let the purpose more clearly and so that focus on the problem weshould take more attention, as following figure 1.

Purpose:
1. To promoting
economic growth;
2. To decrease theconsumptionoffossil-energy;
3. To reduce theCO2 emission.

Decrease

Increase

Conventionalenergy industries

Renewableenergyindustries

Usual industries

Industries

Fig.1 the purpose of this paper
Renewable energy is projected to play an important role in future energy consumption. it is expected to bemuch more significant in reducing CO2 emission. The energy produced from sun, wind, biomass
gasification processes, anaerobic digesters, or geothermal resources can directly or indirectly substitute forconventional energy consumption for industries users. So it needs to construct a socioeconomic model thatis based on an I/O model and introduce the renewable energy industries into economic activities. To
promote effective use of renewable energy and restructuring the existing energy consumption structure,some management instruments and economic policies need to be adopted for promotion of economic
growth, promotion of renewable energies and promotion of the reduction of the CO2 emission.
Industry sector consists of usual energy industries, conventional energy industries and renewable energy
industries. The industrial classifications in conventional energy industries and renewable energy industries
are shown in Table 4.

Table 4 classifications in conventional energy industries and renewable energy
Conventional energy

Utilizing renewable energy

Coals products
Gasoline
Diesel oilpower

Biomass solid briquette
Ethanol fuelBiodiesel
Solar photovoltaic
Biomass waste generation power
wind powerhydroelectric power
geothermal heat pumps heatingheat

In order to achieve these two purposes, the methodology using in this paper have been modified asfollowing figure 2:

Conventionalenergy industries

Primary energy
decomposed

Usual industries

Energy balance

Secondary energy
New energyindustries

Industries

Fig.2 the modified framework of energy balance
Energy balance is the key issue for constructing the socioeconomic model. The energy balance will be
divided into primary and secondary energy.
3 Objections
Research purpose: (1) Analyze the effects of the policies on reducing CO2 emission and promoting newindustries. Propose the optimum emission tax. (2) Promote effective use of renewable energy and propose
an optimal structure of energy system. (3) Propose an optimal structure of renewable energy, compare withthe Beijing’s renewable energy development plan. (4) Introduced new energy industries, provide optimalpolicies, such as emission tax of CO2 and subsidy, into the comprehensive evaluation model, which
includes energy balance, economic balance, and environmental balance. Finally, achieve maximize theGDP and emission reduction objectives.
Simulation: carbon tax for consumption of traditional energy and subsidy for renewable energy. Carbon tax:
Carbon tax was an effective policy tool to cope with the climate change and emission reduction. A
socioeconomic model was set up to simulate the influence of levy carbon tax on China's socioeconomic,
energy saving and CO2 emission reduction. Subsidy: the reasonable use of the revenue could produce animportant effect on carbon tax collection. The biggest aim of carbon tax is to promote renewable energy
industries. Therefore, this research suggests that the carbon tax revenue should follow the policy of special
fund for developing special use. The government should set up a national special fund by carbon tax
revenue which should be used for the projects of improving energy efficiency, developing low carbon
emission energies.
4 Conclusion
Renewable energy resources account for only 3.2% of total energy consumption. However, the growth inCO2 emission, as well as serious environmental pollution problems caused by consumption of fossil energy,provides arguments for the development of renewable energy resources. Renewable energy potential in
Beijing is greater than that indicated by the current level of use. It can play a larger role in the CO2reduction. In the next, the researches continue to built the energy balance, complete socioeconomic modeland evaluate the economic policies in which the tax and subsidy are introduced.