10th AnniversaryIX-2

Survey of 2050 Scenarios
in EU Countries
and Narrative Storylines for Japan
2020/2050 scenarios
Junichi Fujino (NIES)
The 10th AIM International Workshop; 10-12, March 2005,
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan1

Selected List of Country Level Studies
and Research trip during 5/17-5/25, 2005
Country

Organizations

Projects/Models

UK

Dept.of Trade and Industry

Germany

Study Commission on Sustainable
EnergyNetherlands

RIVM et. al.

Energy White Paper(2003);
MARKAL
Enquete Commission
on Sustainable Energy
Supply (2000)
The Climate OptiOns
for the Long-term(COOL) (1999-2001);
Participatory IAPIK

EC-Env
FranceInterministerial Task Force on
Climate Change (MIES)

CanadaNatural Resources Canada

FinlandNational Technology Agency

RIVM

Target GHG reduction goals
yearUK/DTI[Projection]
2050
CO2: 550ppm; +2℃-58%(CO2)=64MtC in UK
2020
2030
2050
2050

-80% by 2050 (GHGs)(-40% by 2020; -50% by 2030)

Reducing CO2
emission fourfold inFrance (2004)
Energy Technology
Futures (2000)

2050-75% by 2050; 450 ppmv (CO2);
0.5 tC/capita by 2050

2050

Kyoto trend line: 2%/year reduction→248Mt(GHGs)(approx. -60% from 1990)

Climtech Programme(1999-2002);
EFOM
Swedish Climate
Strategy (2000)

2030

2020

2050

SwedenThe Climate Committee

JapanWWF Japan

USA

DOE, National Laboratories

Power Switch (2003)
AIM/Enduse (Japan)
Scenario for a clean
energy future(2000);
NEMS

Argonne NL/EPA/GPN

Engines of Growth(2004)

CO2: 450ppm;GHGs: 550ppm-15~-25% globally; -50~-80% inIndustrialized Countries;-80%(GHGs) in Netherlands-20% compared to the Kyoto target(GHGs)
France/MIES

2050

2020
2050

-50% by 2050 (GHGs) in Sweden;
4-4.5 tCO2eq/capita by 2050; CO2;550ppm
[24% by 2020 (CO2)][Moderate: 29.5% more CO2 in2020 than 1990;
Advanced: Same level in 2020 as1990][Tech.drives market:46% by 2050
from 2000]

2Visitors: Shuzo Nishioka, Yasushi Ninomiya (IGES), Reina Kawase, and Junichi Fujino

Cross-cutting outcomes of this research trip in EU (1)Stabilization target andcountry-level reduction target setting••Target year: 2050
Country-level reduction target: more than 50%•

Stabilization target:CO2 concentration around450ppmv to 550ppmv, or 2 degree C (based on EU
initial target in 1996, 2 degree C temperature target
and 550ppm CO2 concentration.)
Current research shows more strict relationshipbetween concentration and temperature.

•Burden sharing: mainly C&C (Convergence andContraction), and intensity target, multi-stage, others
Controversial issue3

Cross-cutting outcomes of this research trip in EU (2)Plan, Implication, Evaluationof 2050 project•Energy saving and development of renewable energy: first priority
CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) : important option
Nuclear energy: keep in France, decreasing in other EU countries
Hydrogen: problem of energy sources to produce hydrogenInfrastructure (energy, transportation, building): set the direction
considering its long lead time•

UK has advantage for policy implications with the leadership ofprime minister. Germany is also eager but it seems to bepolarized between Environment and Industry. France has theinter-ministry on climate change but still rough sketch of 2050.

•Though UK 2050 project shows less economic impacts with 60%
reduction, it’s not an outcome from economic modeling. There isno detailed model study on this issue.
4

Cross-cutting outcomes of this research trip in EU (3)Qualification of 2050 project•UK: MARKAL, Germany: Simulation models(Wuppertal institute), France and Netherlands:
snapshots of 2050•

MARKAL is the only optimization model for the above
simulations. They had several meeting on parametersetting of technology data. But still it has difficulty todeal with economic loss and drastically structurechange.

•Simulation models covers energy supply,transportation, building, etc. But it only shows therelationship between key elements in each sector andthere is no optimization scheme.
5The Features of Japan 2050 Low
Carbon Society Research Project1.

Research project involving about 60 researchers on
long-term scenario development, CC policy regime,urban system, IT, transportation system, industrial
structure change and others.

2.

Applying economic model and technology model for
consistent scenario development. Collecting a large
amount of environmental options regarding technology,
institution, behavior and so on.

3.

Covering not only energy supply but also service
demand change.
6Forthcoming Open Symposium “Low-Carbon Society Scenario
toward 2050: Scenario Development and its Implication
for Policy Measures” on March 24th, 2005 in Tokyo
Tentative Agenda on March 24 (Thu.), 2005
10:00-10:15
Session 1
10:15-10:30
10:30-11:00
Session 2
11:00-11:10
11:10-11:30
11:30-11:50
11:50-12:30

Session 3
13:30-13:40
13:40-14:20
14:20-14:50
14:50-15:20
15:20-15:40
15:40-16:10
16:10-16:30
16:30-17:20
17:20-17:30

Opening Remarks: Mr. Toshiro Kojima, MOEJ
Overview of Low Carbon Society Scenario Development
Purpose and Objective of this Symposium: Prof. Shuzo Nishioka, NIES
Long-term climate policy in EU: Dr. Artur Runge-Metzger, Environment DG,
European Commission
Long-term GHG reduction target
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Norichika Kanie, TITech
Policy perspective of Long-term GHG reduction target setting: Dr. Martin Weiss,
Germany's Federal Environment Agency (Germany)
Stakeholder perspective of Long-term target: Dr. Marleen van de Kerkhof,
Institute for Environmental Studies (Netherlands)
Disussion:
Discussant: Dr. Joop Oude Lohuis, RIVM (Netherlands)
Dr. Srinivasan Ancha, IGES
Development of low carbon society scenarios toward 2050 and their policy impacts
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES
UK scenarios toward 2050: Mr. Stephen Green, DTI (UK)Germany scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institute(Germany)
France scenarios toward 2050: Mr. Michel Colombier, IDDRI (France)
Coffee BreakNetherlands scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Remko Ybema, ECN (Netherlands)
Japan scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES
Panel Discussion
Final Remarks

7Forthcoming Open Symposium “Low-Carbon Society Scenario
toward 2050: Scenario Development and its Implication
for Policy Measures” on March 24th, 2005 in Tokyo
Tentative Agenda on March 24 (Thu.), 2005
The issues
to bediscussed during this symposium are;
10:00-10:15
Opening Remarks: Mr. Toshiro Kojima, MOEJ
Overview of Lowneed
Carbon SocietyDevelopment
1) WhySession
EU1 countries
to Scenario
structure
the low carbon
10:15-10:30
Purpose and Objective of this Symposium: Prof. Shuzo Nishioka, NIES
economy? Long-term
10:30-11:00
climate policy in EU: Dr. Artur Runge-Metzger, Environment DG,
European Commission2) HowSession
to 2decidecountry-level GHG (Greenhouse gases)
Long-term GHG reduction target
reduction
11:00-11:10 targets?
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Norichika Kanie, TITech
11:10-11:30
Policy perspective of Long-term GHG reduction target setting: Dr. Martin Weiss,
3) How to develop
androad map to achieve
Germany'stheFederalscenario
Environment Agency(Germany)
11:30-11:50
Stakeholder
perspectiveof Long-term How
target: Dr.toMarleen
van de Kerkhof,
the society
withsuchtargets?
consider2nd Open
symposiumonthisissue
with economic
Institute for Environmental Studies (Netherlands)
impacts,innovation,socialand
infrastructure
11:50-12:30
Disussion:China,EU,technology
USA,India, Japan,
othersDiscussant:change,
Dr. Joop Oude Lohuis,
RIVM (Netherlands)change, lifestyleetc?
Srinivasan
will be held Dr.on
SepAncha,or IGES
the beginning of Oct
3
Development
low carbon societyof
scenarios
2050 and theirpolicy impacts4) HowSession
seriously
theofconcept
lowtoward
carboneconomyare
13:30-13:40
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES
taken13:40-14:20
into current
policy making process and realized as
UK scenarios toward 2050: Mr. Stephen Green, DTI (UK)
concrete
policy14:20-14:50
Germanymeasures?
scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institute(Germany)5) What14:50-15:20
are thecommondifferentstances
between EU
Francescenarios toward /2050:
Mr. Michel Colombier,
IDDRI (France)
15:20-15:40andCoffeeJapan
Breakcountries
in achieving low carbon economy?
15:40-16:10
Netherlands scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Remko Ybema, ECN (Netherlands)
What16:10-16:30
are themessages
ofDr. thecarbon economy toJapan
scenarios toward 2050:
Junichi low
Fujino, NIES
16:30-17:20
Discussion
futureglobalPanelgovernance?
17:20-17:30

Final Remarks

8Forthcoming Open Symposium “Low-Carbon Society Scenario
toward 2050: Scenario Development and its Implicationfor Policy Measures” on March 24th, 2005 in Tokyo
Tentative Agenda on March 24 (Thu.), 2005
10:00-10:15
Session 1
10:15-10:30
10:30-11:00
Session 2
11:00-11:10
11:10-11:30
11:30-11:50

Opening Remarks: Mr. Toshiro Kojima, MOEJ
Overview of Low Carbon Society Scenario Development
Purpose and Objective of this Symposium: Prof. Shuzo Nishioka, NIES
Long-term climate policy in EU: Dr. Artur Runge-Metzger, Environment DG,
European Commission
Long-term GHG reduction target
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Norichika Kanie, TITech
Policy perspective of Long-term GHG reduction target setting: Dr. Martin Weiss,
Germany's Federal Environment Agency (Germany)
Stakeholder perspective of Long-term target: Dr. Marleen van de Kerkhof,
Institute for Environmental Studies (Netherlands)
Disussion:
Discussant: Dr. Joop Oude Lohuis, RIVM (Netherlands)
Dr. Srinivasan Ancha, IGES
Development of low carbon society scenarios toward 2050 and their policy impacts
Overview and discussion points: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES
UK scenarios toward 2050: Mr. Stephen Green, DTI (UK)Germany scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institute(Germany)
France scenarios toward 2050: Mr. Michel Colombier, IDDRI (France)
Coffee BreakNetherlands scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Remko Ybema, ECN (Netherlands)
Japan scenarios toward 2050: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES
Panel Discussion
Final Remarks

2nd Open symposium on this issue with
11:50-12:30

EU, USA, China, India, Japan,and others will be heldin Sep or the beginning of Oct, 2005
Session 3
13:30-13:40
13:40-14:20
14:20-14:50
14:50-15:20
15:20-15:40
15:40-16:10
16:10-16:30
16:30-17:20
17:20-17:30

9Develop 2020 BaUand Intervention scenarios
1）Develop narrative storylines2）Develop quantitative BaU scenarios––

Identify scenario driving forces andModel (AIM/Material[Japan]) calculation

3）Develop 2020 Intervention scenarios–––

Collect environmental options (EDB)
Assume diffusion rate of each env. Options
Model (AIM/Enduse[Japan]) calculation
10

Features of narrative storylines forJapan 2050 project
These are similar to SRES B1/B2 scenarios…
1） Develop scenario concept considering thesociety which will allow intervention toward
low carbon society2） Focused on Japan. More detailed
descriptions are required (industrystructure change, consumption pattern,etc)
11Concept of Two Narrative Storylines
Scenario A:
Centralized economy, Urban style
Hard working
Mass prod., cons., recycling
Intensive leisure
Value with quantitative indicatorsand more…
Scenario
Scenario B:
B:
Decentralized economy
economy, DispatchedWork sharing
Less prod., cons., recycling
Take time
time leisureleisureTake
Value withwith qualitative
qualitative indicators
indicators
Valueand more…
12

Develop Storyline of BaU scenario
Driving forces

BaU A

BaU B

Lifestyle

Much consumptionLess consumption

Population

Slightly decrease

Slightly decrease

Rather highRather low

Productivity factor
improvement

High improvement

Keep current situation

Industry structureHigh value-addedindustry

Service industry

Land use

Urban centralized

Decentralized

IT society

Enhance convenience

Tele-communication

Energy supply

Fossil fuel driven +Nuclear energyLess energy demand, lessnuclear energy

GHG emission

Large

MiddleGDP growth

独立性(高）

13

Translate into quantitative scenarios
1） Select Main Driving forces (population,
GDP growth assumption, productivity
factor improvement, etc)
2） Model calculation (AIM/Material,AIM/Enduse)3） Detailed description of sector-wise demand(cooling, warming, lighting demand, etc)
14

Energy efficiency for pulp
and paper industry

70

1.00

60

Electricity

0.90

面積あたり冷房サービス需要Cooling 床demand
assumption
perfloor square in service sector

50

0.80

Petroleumproducts

0.70

40

B

0.60

1000千kcal/m2kcal/m^2

Energy efficiency for pulp andpaper industry（year 2000=1.00）

Quantitative parameters

3020

A

実
績
Historical
シScenario
ナリオAA
シScenario
ナリオB
B

10

0.50
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Results from AIM/Enduse model

01990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Trend assumption
15

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

Japan
de-CO22050

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Techno-Socio Innovation Study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Transportationsystem

IT-society

BaU scenario
Energy savingTech. innovation
EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechange

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid531-1Equity

GHG reduction target
2020

2050

2010

2000

（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）Intervention

1990

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

GHG emission

Urban structure
Develop socioeconomic scenario,
evaluate countermeasures using
econ-techno models

X generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

scenario

Suitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

Advisory board：expert advice

16

Propose the direction for long-term global warming policy