AIM/Impact[Policy]
Hijioka Yasuaki, Toshihiko Masui, Kiyoshi Takahashi,
Yuzuru Matsuoka, Hideo Harasawa
NIES and Kyoto University, JapanThe 10th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba Japan, 10-12 March 2005

Development of AIM/Impact[Policy]z Integrated assessment model which provides anevaluating framework for climate change impacts
management under stabilization strategies of greenhousegas emission, concentration and temperature¾Platform to integrate past impacts studies of climate change on
several sectors and analyze climate change impacts on
dangerous level, economical damage and adaptation strategy
comprehensively¾

Platform to investigate greenhouse gas emission reduction
strategies for achievement of climate stabilization goals andanalyze the effects of burden sharing scheme and flexibility
scheme for greenhouse gas emission reduction

 Integrated assessment tool to assist policymakers’
decision in action programs to arrest global warmingStructure of AIM/Impact[Policy]z AIM/Impact[Policy] consists of a series of linked sub
models representing two processes, greenhouse gasemission and climate change impacts¾ The greenhouse gas emission part includes four sub models:(1) Energy economic model for global multi-greenhouse gas
emission constraint,(2) Burden sharing scheme model,(3) Global CGE model for global multi-greenhouse gas emission
constraint,(4) Flexibility scheme for greenhouse gas emission constraint¾ Climate change impacts part include a sub model, impact
assessment and adaptation model for global climate change(1) Database type model and composed of pre-simulated results ofprocess type models

Structure of
AIM/Impact[Policy]

Climate change impact
thresholdEnergy economic model for global
multi-GHG emission constraint（single region, economic andsimplified climate model）

Impact assessment and adaptation
model for global climate change（Multi region/sector, database typemodel）
Flexibility scheme
for GHG emission
constraint

Global GHG emission
permit path

Burden sharing scheme model

Global CGE model for global
multi-GHG emission constraint（Multi region/sector）

GHG emission permit
path at country level

Features of Energy Economic Modelz Analyze global greenhouse gas emission path under
different socio-economic scenarios and reductionconstraint strategies of multi greenhouse gases
 Future Plan►►► Analyze global greenhouse gas emission path considering
climate change impacts, e.g. water resource, agriculture, health,etcz Model Details
99999

Dynamic optimization model wiht simplified climate modules (+sealevel module)
Single region
Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, CFC, PFC, SF6, BC, O3
Time periods: decades from 1990 through 2200
Constraints: GHG concentration, GHG emission, Temperaturechange, Temperature change speed, Sea level rise

Depreciation
Capital atnext term
CapitalInvestment

Labor

Consumption
Production

Electricenergy

Present
discountedutility

Consumption
in other years

Energy cost

Non-electricenergy

GHG reduction
cost

MAXIMIZATION

TemperaturechangePotential
temperaturechangeGHG
generation

GHG
reduction

Radiative force

Sea level rise

GHG
concentration
Other nonelectric energy

GHG
emission
Fossil fuelextraction

Thermalpower plant

Fossil fuel forpower plant

GHG emission
from other source

Fossil fueldeposits

Flow of GHG
Other flow

Non-thermal
power plant

Outline of model simulationz Scenario: SRES B2z Discount rate: 4%z Climate sensitivity: 2.5℃z Simulation cases
9 Business as Usual
9 GHG-500ppmv: 500 ppmv cap on total GHG
concentration
9 GHG-600ppmv: 600 ppmv cap on total GHG
concentration

Reduction required
to achieve 550ppmv
cap on total GHG
constraint ►►►4.4GtCeq/yr in 2020
and 12.8 GtCeq/yr
in 2050
900

600

BaU
Sea level rise (m)

BaU

300
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
2160
2170
2180
2190
2200

z2015

10
50

GHG-500ppmv
GHG-600ppmv

1200

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
20502060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
2160
2170
2180
2190
2200

Temperature increase (1990=0)

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
2160
2170
2180
2190
2200

CO2 equivalent emission(GtCeq/yr)

To achieve around
2℃ temperature
increase in 2100,
550ppmv cap on
total GHG constraint
is needed

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
2160
2170
2180
2190
2200

z

CO2 equivalent concentration(ppmv)

Simulation Results
5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

YearBaUYear
GHG-500ppmv
GHG-600ppmv
YearBaU

Year
GHG-500ppmv

GHG-500ppmv

GHG-600ppmv

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

GHG-600ppmv

Future Taskz Single region ►►►► Multi regionz Installation of several impact functions (Crop productivity,water resource, health, etc.)
z Uncertainty analysis