REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

MOEJ/GEC REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014
Summary of the Final Report“REDD+ in Prey Long Area and Seima Area”( Implementing Entity:
Conservation International Japan and Asia Air Survey )1．Overview of the Proposed JCM Project

Study partners

Conservation International Foundation (CI Foundation)
 Conservation International Cambodia
o Coordination with Forestry Administration and assistance withfinancial planning and design details for study on Prey Longarea.
 Conservation International headquarterso Prediction of the deforestation area within the projectboundaries using spatial models for the setting of reference
emissions, as well as assistance in the formulation of themonitoring plan.

Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) Source of information for study of Seima region.
Forestry Administration of Cambodia
 Cooperation in financial planning and study design details for bothregions, and advice aimed at participation in the JCM in subsequent
years in response to information in the study.

Project site
Category of
project

Cambodia, Prey Long Area and Seima Area
REDD+

Small-scale illegal logging and agricultural activities by local communities
and large-scale conversion of forest into industrial agricultural landthrough economic concessions have been major threats of deforestationin the Prey Long area (estimated to be around 400,000 hectares) and the
Seima area (estimated to be around 150,000 hectares). The present
study is focused on the Prey Long area, which was selected as a
Description ofproject

candidate project area to be part of the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM).
The project aims to prevent deforestation in the Prey Long area bystrengthening forest management through law enforcement by the
Forestry Administration of Cambodia and participation of the local
community, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Because thePrey Long area supports Cambodia's agriculture and fisheries as animportant water source, forest conservation in this region is essential forsustainable development in Cambodia.

Expected project
implementer

Japan

Conservation International Japan

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Host country

Forestry Administration, Cambodia

Initial investment

JPY50,000,000

Date ofgroundbreaking

2012

Annualmaintenance cost

JPY100,000,000

Construction
period2015

Date of projectcommencement

2015

In cooperation with
relevant organizations
and bodies, efforts will
Willingness toinvestment

be made to raise
funds fromgovernments andinternationalorganizations as wellas private sector.

Financial plan ofproject

For the required funds, the plan is to utilize grant aid from the Japanese
government and other governments as well as private funds in addition to
the funding of the JCM mechanism.

GHG emission
reductions

1,136.158 (tCO2/year)

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

2. Study Contents(1) Project development and implementation
1) Project planning
Proposed project site
The proposed project site is the Prey Long area, which crosses Kampong Thom Province,
Kratie Province, Stung Treng Province and Preah Vihear Province west of the MekongRiver in Cambodia. A process to make the area a protection forest is currently underway.
The project boundary is estimated at about 400,000 hectares.
The study began initially with the Prey Long area and Seima area as the proposed sites for
implementation of a JCM REDD+ project for the next fiscal year and beyond. However,after careful consideration of the JCM system from the perspective of project
implementation, the following points were identified as issues in terms of considering acandidate region.
 The total amount of the JCM subsidy is less than 100 million yen, and once this is
distributed to multiple countries, the funding for a single country would reach 50
million yen only in the most optimistic scenario.
 Since both the Seima and Prey Long regions require funding on the scale of 100
million yen each, it is necessary to narrow down the target area to only one of theareas.
 Because the assistance payment from JCM is delivered after the year-end results
report, another funding source is required to pay the full amount and to bear thefinancial risk in the period up to the delivery of the JCM funds. At present, the only
realistic financial plan is for the CI Foundation to temporarily lend CI Japan the funds
for its activities in the fiscal year. Because the JCM mechanism does not cover thefull amount, CI Japan is required to bear part of the cost.
For these reasons, it became clear that the target area must be the area where CI, who isassuming risk and responsibility, is working in partnership with the Forestry Administrationof Cambodia. The assumed local partners for a project started under the JCM would be CI
Cambodia in the case of the Prey Long area and the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS)in the case of the Seima area. It was therefore agreed that the Seima area would be
excluded from the candidate sites for implementation of the REDD+ project.

Project implementation structure
The implementation structure was created based on examples of forest conservation
projects that CI Cambodia has carried out over many years in other regions.
[CI Japan] Responsible for managing the progress of the entire project, managing
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

execution of the budget, quantifying emissions reductions, and reporting to the
Ministry of the Environment.







o Supervision, primary responsibility, accounting[Forestry Administration] Responsible for policing illegal activities in the target area
and assisting with research.
o Phnom Penh: 6 personnel
 Supervisor, deputy supervisor, investigator, accountant, clerk, office
coordinatoro Local station headquarters: 29 personnel
 Commander-in-chief, mobile team commander, commander, station
manager, assistant, 3 research assistants
 Government rangers: mobile team (12), station team (6) Local rangers (3)o Local substations: 15 personnel (assuming two locations) Station manager, deputy manager, assistant Government rangers: station team (9) Local rangers (3)[CI Cambodia] Support and supervise the activities of the Forestry Administration toensure efficiency of forest conservation activities and appropriate use of funds.
o Supervisor (CI Cambodia representative): Take responsibility for cooperatingwith the Cambodian government and reporting to CI Japan.
o Manager: Maintain constant contact with personnel at the Forestry
Administration in Phnom Penh, keep tabs on and manage the current status
and budget execution, and promote efficiency. Accompany law enforcement
on a regular basis to confirm that their activities are properly carried out. Send
reports to CI Japan.
o Law enforcement (1-2 personnel): Manage the establishment and operationof the stations. Accompany law enforcement on a regular basis to confirm that
their activities are properly carried out. Assist with judicial proceedings.
o Coordinators (multiple): Provide assistance to manager and law enforcement
personnel. Also assist research on carbon and biodiversity.
[Specialized agencies] Responsible for the analysis of satellite images.
[CI USA] Carry out monitoring in general and provide technical support for PDD

development.
[CI Foundation] Temporarily lend funds for activities within the fiscal year.
The organizations involved in the project implementation, CI Japan, CI Cambodia, Forestry
Administration, and CI USA, each has a wealth of experience in the work that it will be
responsible for (see the full report for specific accomplishments).
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Project cost estimate
For the implementation of the Prey Long area forest conservation project under the JCM,
the overall project cost required to carry out the ideal activities is estimated at 158 million
yen in fiscal 2015, 141 million yen in fiscal 2016, and 135 million yen in fiscal 2017(assuming 120 yen/US dollar).
This is well beyond the budget that can be borne by the JCM budget alone, which means a
combination of multiple funding sources is required. Note that reducing the target area to fit
the budget is not an option, since measures that target only part of the Prey Long area,
which is on level ground, will only drive the deforestation into other areas.
The details of the activities and costs included in the project costs are shown below.
Activity 1: Law Enforcement by the Forestry Administration• Travel costs:
Phnom Penh<=>local (supervision, reporting, personnel changes
•
•
•
•

etc.)
Fuel etc. :Vehicle, motorcycles, fuel for generators, tolls, ferry charges
Miscellaneous expenses : Vehicle repair, printing, public relations, miscellaneous
expenses, otherMeetings:
Quarterly meetings
Cost of ranger activities

Activity 2: Installation of facilities for forest conservation• Construction:
Station headquarters ($100k), sub-stations ($50k) x 2• Vehicles:
Pickup trucks (2), timber transport truck (1), motorcycles (24)
• Measuring instruments: GPS x 8, GPS camera x 1• Other precision equipment:PCs (9), radios (20), satellite phone (including
registration fee), copy machine• Others: Personal field kits, water carriers, machetes, medical kits, ice box, vehicle
batteries, replacement tires, cooking equipment, well, generator, water pumps,
barricades, floodlights, etc.
Activity 3: Community support• Conservation activities: Community incentives, local rangers
Activity 4: Training and research• Monitoring from the sky• Training related to patrol activities
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Activity 5: JCM registration and quantitative determination of emissions reductions••

Document preparation assistanceSatellite image analysis

Activity 6: Support for local activities of CI Cambodia• Personnel costs• Travel costs (Phnom Penh<=>Prey Long)•

Miscellaneous expenses

Activity 7: JCM project management by CI Japan• Personnel costs•

Travel costs

Funding plan
Based on the contents of the Cambodia-Japan bilateral agreement on the JCM of April
2014, the outlines of JCM-subsidized projects from fiscal year 2013, and interviews withstakeholders, and merit of the case that the REDD project were to be funded by JCM and
implemented in Cambodia, the key challenges of the project were identified, andcountermeasures for each challenge were considered. As a result, it became clear thatcombining with other funding sources and support projects is essential. The issue of
combining the JCM funds with support from Cambodian government funds and developing
country aid agencies is currently under study, and it is necessary to continue careful
coordination aimed at submitting an application for a JCM-subsidized project in the next
fiscal year.
2) Contribution of Japan
Cambodia's forests are the fountainhead supporting key industries such as fishing andagriculture, and as a source of non-timber products such as resin, also support life in local
communities where poverty is endemic. This forest conservation project, whose
implementation would be enabled by the JCM scheme, would contribute significantly to thecountry's sustainable development by protecting these industries. In addition, theCambodian government has positioned REDD as a strategic priority in its national forest
program (2010-2029), and is aiming to strengthen governance and enforcement of forest
law. Illegal activities such as corruption and embezzlement contribute to preventing soundmanagement in Cambodia's forest sector. The REDD+ project, as part of the JCM, would
demand financial reporting to the Japanese government in its capacity as an investor,
thereby contributing to greater transparency of the flow of money and goods. On the other
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

hand, if the project fails, it could become a source of inappropriate funds, which is why
appropriate monitoring by CI Cambodia, who has been active locally for many years, isessential.
Furthermore, by starting a REDD project funded by the government of Japan and building
confidence, it might be possible to attract future investment to the REDD in Cambodia if
Japanese companies were to start reducing emissions using credits from the JCM scheme.

3) MRV structure
In order to make the measurements required to determine the amount of emission
reductions, a forested area is required, and analysis of satellite images is called for.
Properly speaking, monitoring should be carried out by the Forestry Administration of
Cambodia, who has jurisdiction over the Prey Long area. However, the study so far has
revealed that there is at present a conspicuous lack of human resources in the section in
charge of remote sensing. Currently, technical assistance related to forest monitoring from
FAO and JICA has been introduced, and in the long term it is expected that monitoring will
be carried out mainly by the host government. Meanwhile, over the next few years, it isreasonable to assign the satellite image analysis for monitoring required for the JCM to an
external organization with well-established technology.
On the other hand, when a forest survey for the estimation of forest carbon stocks was
carried out during the feasibility study in fiscal year 2012, training was provided to therelevant departments of the Forestry Administration, and standard operating procedures forthe survey were developed, along with an instruction manual for handling measurement
equipment. Since fiscal year 2012, Forestry Administration staff who participated in the
training and survey have been responsible for survey training in other regions, leveraging
the results of the support provided through the feasibility study.
4) Environmental integrity and Sustainable development in host country
Contribution to the sustainable development of Cambodia
The Prey Long area is an important watershed that regulates water and sediment flow to
the Mekong River and the Tonle Sap Lake, and an estimated 700,000 Cambodians are
directly dependent on the watershed for irrigation water (Thelaide & Schmidt 2010). In
addition, the rivers that flow through the Prey Long area are spawning grounds for fish in
the Mekong River system. The project is therefore intended to contribute not only to thelives of the indigenous communities living in the area, but also to the livelihoods of thedownstream farmers and fishermen, and to the food security of the people who depend on
them.
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Ensuring environmental integrity
If the forest conservation project is successful, there will be no adverse effect on theenvironment. On the other hand, because the Prey Long area is on level ground where
illegal loggers have easy access from outside, enforcement that is targeted at only part of
the area might drive the illegal logging to the other areas. To prevent this problem ofstructural transfer of deforestation, it was determined that it is essential to implement the
project activities in their entirety by finding a combination of multiple funding sources. Thismeans that the acquisition of funds after the project starts is an issue that needs to beaddressed before the project starts.
Impact on biological diversity
In contrast to mountain forests, which are protected, the lowland forests in many countries,
including Cambodia, are not subject to protection and continue to disappear. The Prey
Long area is valuable as the last vestige of the lowland evergreen forests that were once
widespread not only in Cambodia but throughout Indochina.
The Prey Long area, which covers a vast area of contiguous mixed forest habitats cut
across by numerous small rivers, is also valuable as a wildlife habitat. Wildlife whose
presence has been confirmed include the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), clouded
leopard (Neofeis nebulosa), marbled cat (Pardofelis marmorata), Malayan sun bear
(Helarctos malayanus), banteng wild ox (Bos javanicus), gaur wild ox (Bos gaurus), sambar
deer (Rusa unicolor), wild dog (Cuon alpinus), sunda pangolin (Manis javanica), pileatedgibbon (Hylobates pileatus), pig-tailed macaque (Macaca memestrina), and smooth-coatedotter (Lutrogale perspicillata). The area is also rich in species of turtles and tortoises,
including the elongated tortoise (Indotestudo elongata), Asian box turtle (Cuora
amboinensis), Asian leaf turtle (Cyclemys oldhamii), Giant Asian pond turtle (Heosemys
grandis), yellowed-headed temple turtle (Heosemys annandalii), Malayan snail eating turtle(Malayemys subtrijuga), black marsh turtle (Siebenrockiella crassicollis), and Asiatic
softshell turtle (Amyda cartilaginea). A very rare endangered species Siamese crocodile(Crocodylus siamensis) has also been confirmed. Despite the high importance of the Prey
Long area in terms of biodiversity, the wildlife populations are reported to be well below thenumber that originally inhabited the area. If the Prey Long area were to be effectively
protected, and if wildlife species with populations that can be recovered at this time could
recover to the same levels of wildlife populations of other protected areas of Cambodia, theimportance of the protection of the Prey Long area at the national and global level would
likely increase dramatically.
Impact on local community
There are indigenous groups living in and around the Prey Long area. The forest supports
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Reporttheir lives directly, in addition to occupying an important position in their culture and spiritual
life. Local residents collect resin, medicine, and material for housing from the forest, andresin in particular is a major source of cash income. Because the lives of the Prey Long
area communities depend directly on the forest, forest conservation will bring about apositive impact on the livelihoods of local residents. At the same time, careful planning isrequired in the implementation of the project to guarantee that access to forest resources
necessary to the survival of the inhabitants is never restricted. The project has incorporated
the participation of the community in some of its activities, and plans to implement an
incentive program that reflects the current status and aspirations of the community,
including employment through participation in the forest patrol activity.
For the local residents of the Prey Long area, land tenure is insecure, leaving them highly
vulnerable to outside concessions and confiscation of land. Residents who lose their land
often exploit the forest for food. The land tenure issue is therefore an important challenge
for forest conservation in the Prey Long area, and ways of addressing this challenge
require adequate consideration.
Safeguards
To avoid the negative effects of the project, and to evaluate its positive effects, it isrecommended that the project adopt the Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standards(CCBS) or the REDD Social and Environmental Standard. The Cambodian government isseeking CCBS acquisition for a REDD+project that uses voluntary credits developed
domestically, and this will also be effective in enhancing the integrity of other initiatives.

5) Toward project realization (planned schedule and possible obstacles to be
overcome)
March – May

Early March

Preparation

June/Julyand

submissionof

JCM project implementation

application
Project planning

Report results of ・Refine draft proposal for combination Implementation of plan
investigation
host country

to of

multiplefundingsourcesinaccordance with 2015 fiscal budget of
the JCM・ Coordinate with potential partner
institutions

includingprivatecompanies and aid organizations
・Final coordination with host country
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report[Challenge: Need policy relating tomethodofapportioning

emission

reductions][Challenge: To make the project planmost effective, need to design the
plan

while

monitoringthelatestsituation of potential funding sources]
Field activities

Gather information on local conditions Start

forestconservationfrom the Cambodian government and activities under JCM grant
CI Cambodia
Methodology

Finalize

As soon as methodology guidelines In the case of items that do notmethodology

are published, check their consistency conform
with

the

methodology

that

to

the

guidelines,

was modify the methodology upondeveloped

consideration of the need to do[Challenge:

Relationshiprequirements

betweenof sothe →Enrollment in the JCM Joint

methodology that was developed and Committee (JC)themethodology guidelines to be

published]
PDD

Complete setting

Documentation of PDD

of→Enrollment in the JCM JC

referenceemissions
Safeguards

Checkcontentsofsafeguard Deployment to the community

guidelines as soon as they are
published(2) JCM methodology development
1) Eligibility criteria
To ensure appropriate quantification of emission reductions using the developed
methodology, the following eligibility requirements have been established.
1) The activities in the reference scenario shall not include planned deforestation by
the government.
2) The target area shall be land that has been forest land for at least ten years. The
I-2-10REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

definition of "forest" shall be based on the national forest inventory and similarsources, and on the definition that is expected to be adopted in the REDD initiativeat the national level in the host country. The definition according to the information
as of January 2015 is "tree height of 5 m or more, crown ratio of 20% or more,
including natural forest as well as plantations and other planted trees".
3) The target area shall not include areas where peatlands make up 0.3% or more of
the total area. Peatlands are defined as organic soil with a thickness of 50 cm or
more, containing 65% or more organic material by weight.
The reasons for setting these eligibility requirements are as follows.
1) If the project were to include planned deforestation as a cause of deforestation, thecalculation of the reference emissions would be based on the plan, and calculationin the manner prescribed by this proposed methodology would not be used. This
proposed methodology is therefore not applicable to cases where planned
deforestation is an activity in the reference scenario. On the other hand, ELCs,
which are one of the main causes of deforestation in Cambodia, are approved by
the Cambodian government on the basis of applications submitted by the private
sector. Without the ELC areas being identified in advance, it is not possible topredict where ELCs will be issued in the future. This requirement therefore does
not apply to excluded deforestation planned by the government. If project activities
include cancellation of the ELCs that have already been issued in the projecttarget area, it becomes planned deforestation. The ELCs that have been issued
will not be included in the reference scenario for the Prey Long area.
2) In Cambodia, the Forestry Administration has been asked to review the definitionof forest. In the national forest management plan, the minimum tree crown ratio for
determining a forest is 10%, but they have decided to adopt a definition thatprioritizes consistency with REDD initiatives at the national level. [If the minimum
number of years the area was a forest is stipulated in the methodology guidelines
before the final report, the stipulation will be incorporated.]3) The process of greenhouse gas emissions from peat swamp forests requires
appropriate calculation methods that are different from forests. Because it is notclear whether there are peat swamp forests in Cambodia, including in the Prey Long
area1, it was decided that they would not be included in this methodology. On theother hand, in order to deal with the possibility that they are found to exist in the
project target area on a very small scale, it was decided that the ignorable upper
limit of the area ratio should be determined. In general, carbon accumulation in peatswamp forests is claimed to be 5 times to 10 times that of forests (see, for example,

1

Sustainable Management of Peatland Forests in Southeast Asia

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Page et al. 20112), and assuming 3% or less of total emissions are small enough tobe ignored, an upper limit of 0.3% of the total area was set for the target area.
2) Calculation of GHG emissions (including reference and project emissions)
The following data and information are required for the calculation of reference emissions.
Table 1 Data and information required to calculate reference emissions
Information or data

Type or unit

Polygon of project area

GIS

Polygon of reference area

GIS

Maps of land use and land cover changes

Maps

For each forest type, carbon stocks of the carbon pool of interest

tonCO2/ha

For each land use type that has become non-forested, carbon stocks of the carbon

tonCO2/hapool of interest
Polygon data of concessions, protected areas, and other areas

GIS[Optional] Data on factors that influence the deforestation rate (for example,

Statistics (GIS)

population, crop prices)
Spatial information on factors that influence the spatial arrangement of

GIS

deforestation (for example, population, distance from road, soil fertility)

The reference emission amounts are estimated using the following simple summarized methods.
1) Estimating the future rate of deforestation within the reference area (average, trend, andmodel)
2) Calculating the deforestation area each year within the reference area
3) Estimating where deforestation calculated in item 2) will occur in the reference area
3.1) Analysing past deforestation risks from past deforestation and spatial patterns of its
drivers3.2) Calculating spatial deforestation risks within the reference area from the spatial
distribution of drivers and the results of item 3.1)
3.3) Distributing deforestation calculated in 2), starting from places with high risk. Repeating
this for each time step.
3.4) Projecting future deforestation area within the project boundary4) Calculating emission coefficients
4.1) Estimating changes in carbon stocks by forest type4.2) Estimating changes in carbon stocks following changes to non-forest landPage, Susan E.; Rieley, John O.; Banks, Christopher J.. 2011 Global and regional importance of thetropical peatland carbon pool. Global Change Biology, 17 (2). 798-818.
2

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report5) Calculating reference emission amount

3) Data and parameters fixed ex anteThis year it was confirmed that the results that were set in the survey of fiscal year 2012were reasonable, in particular the allometric equations for estimating the carbon stocks inthe above-ground and below-ground biomass pools, the wood density for estimating thecarbon stocks in the dead-wood pool, and the forest carbon stocks of the Prey Long area.
Carbon stocks in the above-ground and below-ground biomass pools are typicallycalculated by allometric equations fitted to the diameter at breast height of the tree to bemeasured in the plot survey. There are also allometric equations for obtaining the treeheight, but it takes time to make a precise height measurement in a dense forest, so thiswas excluded from consideration. After collecting existing allometric equations from theliterature and fitting them to biomass data (12 points) collected close to the target area in
Mondulkiri province in western Cambodia by the Forestry Administration and WCS, aninternational NGO, a set of conservative and good-fitting allometric equations wereidentified. After a comparison of Chave (2005) and Kiyono (2010), the equations in Kiyono(2010), which had a 2% error rate, were selected.
Carbon stocks in the dead-wood pool are estimated based on the thickness and length ofthe dead wood to be measured in the plot study (the items measured differ depending on
the circumstances). In the estimation of the dead wood pool, the wood density is a difficult
parameter to obtain. In a survey of existing information, almost the only data found were thedefault values of the AR-CDM tool ("Estimation of carbon stocks and change in carbon
stocks in dead wood and litter in A/R CDM project activities"). In the aforementioned
Mondulkiri Province, an investigation of the wood density of dead wood was also conducted
and compared with the AR-CDM tool values. The values in the AR-CDM tool were smaller,
which confirms that they are conservative, so it was decided to use them as the default
values of the methodology developed here.
The above-ground and below-ground biomass stores in the project boundaries and theleakage belt were set based on a plot survey in the field. The survey was conducted on 100
randomly chosen clusters composed of three plots in a nested structure with a maximum
radius of 20 m. The table below shows the results obtained by the calculations using theallometric equations that were set and the density of the dead wood (Table 2).
Table 2: Estimated carbon stocks and statistics
Evergreen forest
Above-

Below-

Above-andDeciduous forest
Dead

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Above-

Below-

Above-andDeadwoREDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Reportgroundgroundbelow-groun

wood

groundgroundbelow-groudAverage

od

nd

358.6

58.1

416.7

63.2

208.1

34.8

242.9

21.6

161.4

24.9

186.2

52.3

103.9

16.5

120.3

22.8

35.7

5.5

41.2

11.6

27.7

4.4

32.0

6.1

10.0%

9.5%

9.9%

18.3%

13.3%

12.6%

13.2%

28.1%

57

57

57

57

40

40

40

40

carbonstocks,tonCO2/haStandard
deviation± 90% CI,ton
CO2/haError %
Number ofclusters4) Elaboration of the JCM methodology based on applying the draft to measure
GHG emission reductions
In order to confirm that the proposed methodology is applicable, reference emissions were
calculated, and emission reductions due to project implementation were estimated.
Calculation of reference emissions
1) Prediction of future deforestation rate in the reference area (average, trend, model)
An analysis of historical land use and land cover change was conducted using Landsat,
and a forest map of the entire reference area as it existed in 2002 was prepared. The tablebelow shows the accuracy with which areas were classified into the categories of
evergreen forest, deciduous forest, non-forest, and water.
Table 3: Accuracy assessment
TBD

Evergreen

Deciduous

forestforestNon-forest

Water

Total

Producers
accuracy

Evergreen
forest

486

18

95

Deciduous
forest

27

214

176

Non-forest

44

41

619
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599

0.811

3

420

0.510

2

706

0.877

REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Water

1

5

3

57

66

Total

558

278

893

62

1791

0.871

0.770

0.693

0.919

Users
accuracy

0.864

Due to the low accuracy of classifying deciduous forest, overall accuracy was stuck at 77%,
below the 80% threshold.
In Cambodia, deciduous forests drop their leaves in the dry season. The dry season is theseason in which cloudless satellite images can be obtained, but it is a difficult time forclassifying deciduous forests that are dropping leaves. In addition, the deciduous forests inthis area have sparse vegetation, which means there is not a great difference in terms ofvegetation density between deciduous forest and non-forest areas, and furthermore there
is great variability within the areas that are classified as deciduous forests themselves. The
deciduous forest area makes up approximately 20% of the project area, and its carbon
stocks are about half of the evergreen forests. Because estimates of both surface area andcarbon stores have large measurement errors, and their carbon contribution is small, it was
decided to exclude deciduous forests from consideration. Agreement with the Forestry
Administration will need to be reached in the future. This approach is provided in themethodology as one of the options in cases where classification accuracy is low. As a result,an overall classification accuracy of 89% was achieved, and an accuracy of 91% for theforest cover benchmark map.
Next, using the global forest cover change map of Hansen et al (2012) 3 (hereinafter, theHansen map), the annual forest loss area for the past year was estimated by the timefunction approach. The Hansen map was created to show global forest cover change from
2000-2012 at 30 m spatial resolution using vast amounts of data. It shows multiple
classifications based on crown canopy rate.
The forest portion of the Hansen map was identified by aligning the 2002 forest map with
the Hansen map for the same period. The Hansen map shows forest change in units of one
year. The annual forest loss area was examined by extracting the deforestation that
occurred up to 2012 in the parts that were identified as forest. An analysis was performed
using the time function approach, and the following deforestation function was obtained.
Annual deforestation area in reference region = 2311.1 x year – 2806.8(R2 = 0.83)

M. C. Hansen, P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V.
Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini,C. O. Justice, J. R. G.
Townshend, 2013. High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, 2012, Science:
342: 850-853
3

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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

2) Calculation of each year's forest loss area in the reference area
The above formula was used to calculate forest loss area in the reference area from 2013
to 2022, and a result of 353,263 hectares in 10 years was obtained.
3) Prediction of the forest loss area within the project boundaries
The Land Cover Modeler (LCM) within IDRISI was used to estimate the locations of occurrence of
deforestation. The LCM modeling was conducted in two phases. In the first phase deforestation
between 2002 and 2006 was used to calibrate the model, and then project deforestation to 2012.
The projected 2012 deforestation was compared with the actual deforestation within the reference
region.

Many combinations of driver variables were tested and ultimately 6 variables were

included in the model. The final model had a Figure of Merit (FOM) of 25%.
After the model had been validated with that set of variables, the same variables were applied to the2006 – 2012 epoch and deforestation was projected to the year 2022, using the rate calculated
above.

The projected deforestation from the latter model was used to create the reference

scenario.

The area of forest loss within the project boundaries in the 10 years from 2013 to 2022 wasestimated at 33,174 hectares.

Table 4: Future deforestation in the reference region and project boundary

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total

Reference region
24,92627,23829,54931,86034,171
36,482
38,793
41,104
43,41545,726353,263

Forest loss area (ha)Project boundary
467
1,362
1,914
1,963
2,590
3,565
3,555
4,613
5,907
7,238
33,174

4) Calculation of emission factors
Estimating changes in carbon stocks in forest (evergreen forest)
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

In the methodology, different periods of time are required, depending on the carbon pool,
before the pool completely disappears after conversion to non-forest. The period wasdetermined to be 10 years for the below-ground biomass and dead wood targeted by thisstudy, compared to a single year for above-ground biomass. The change in carbon stocks
was calculated based on the plot survey results.
Estimating changes in carbon stocks in plantations and farmland
The average carbon stocks over 20 years were calculated, based on the literature on thegrowth of rubber (Wauters et al. 2008) in the case of plantations, and data collected in
Mondulkiri Province by the WCS in the case of agricultural land.
5) Calculation of reference emissions
Using the methodology, it was possible to estimate the reference emissions, shown in thefollowing table.
Table 5: Total reference carbon stock change in the project area

Total reference
carbon stock change
in the project area
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total

160,007466,304
655,501
672,238
887,173
1,220,810
1,217,697
1,579,724
2,023,218
2,478,918
11,361,588

Calculation of ex ante estimated net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions
Satellite images were used to examine deforestation in the period from 2012 to 2014, andex ante estimated net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions were estimated. Because
deforestation in the leakage belt was smaller than deforestation under the reference
scenario, leakage was calculated as zero.

Table 6: Ex-post deforestation and carbon stock changes
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REDD+ Demonstration Study 2014 – Final Report

Forest loss area
in project area
(ha)
2013
2014

830
830

Emissions amounts (tonCo2/year)
Reference Project
Leakageemissions emissions
160,007466,304

284,298
284,298

0
0

Emissions
reductions-124,291
182,005

It was therefore possible to confirm that the proposed methodology is applicable.

(3) Activities for acquiring international understanding of REDD+ under the JCM
REDD+ is a mechanism agreed to under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from forests in developing
countries. After international negotiations from 2005 under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the "Warsaw framework for REDD+" was agreed to at
COP19, which was held in Warsaw in 2012, and a set of basic rules was determined for
promoting REDD+ as a global community.
Today, there is no opposition in the international community with respect to counting
emissions reductions from REDD+ activities as part of the commitment to developing
countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. On theother hand, some countries disagree about applying market mechanisms to credits foremissions reduction from REDD+. There is therefore very little discussion about thepossibility of using emissions reductions from REDD+ to achieve the emission reduction
targets of developed countries up to 2020, and in the next framework beyond 2020.
In recognition of this state of affairs, and with the aim of gaining recognition in theinternational community for the REDD+ in the JCM after the next fiscal year, the following
two activities were carried out as part of the present study:
・Dissemination of REDD+ activities to the general public through the CI Japan website
・Outreach to the international community through panel participation in the COP20 side
event
Outreach to the general public through the CI Japan website
As part of REDD+ outreach activities to the general public in Japan, the CI Japan website
was given a significant update, incorporating the latest information about REDD+.
Outreach to the international community through a COP20 side event
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On December 4, during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
COP20 which was held in Lima, Peru in December 2014, the Forestry and Forest Products
Research Institute and JICA co-hosted an on-site side event entitled "A collaboration
platform for REDD+ express "Public-Private Platform": Japanese private companies aregoing on board". There, CI Japan participated as a panelist and presented the perspectiveof NGOs and the role that NGOs can play with respect to the challenges when the public
and private sectors work together on REDD+ and how to overcome them. In addition, CI
Japan expressed to the international community its desire to continue to utilize theexperience and knowledge gained during participation in REDD+ activities as aninternational NGO in order to implement the JCM bilateral credit mechanism.

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