JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

MOEJ/GEC JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014
Summary of the Final Report“Efficiency Improvement of Combined
Heat and Power by Thermal Insulation”( Implementing Entity: Kanden Plant Corporation)
1．Overview of the Proposed JCM ProjectCountry

Organization nameContentsName

involved in the study

Japan

Suuri-Keikaku

・Support for formulating methodology

Co., Ltd.

and surveys of environmental impact
assessment and environmental integrity
required for PDD
・Evaluation of contribution forsustainable development of the hostcountry

Japan

Japan Quality

・Support for setting of eligibility

Assurance

criteria based on validation

Organization

・Support for establishing effective
monitoring plan

Study partners

・Support for establishing MRV system
based on verification process
Japan

Nichias・Support for extracting problems andCorporation

decision of solutions to facility
investment project (overwrapping
insulation method) in year 2015
・Data collection for formulating
methodology by means of
implementation of sample insulation
installation
・Support for make of installation work
planning and management planning・Support for capacity building

1

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

Mongolia

・Thermal power plant

・Support of field survey

3 (Hereinafter referred
as CHP3) ＆Thermal
power plant 4(Hereinafter referred as
CHP4)・Ministry of Energy＆Ministry ofEnvironment Green
Development Tourism
Project site
Category of
project

Mongolia/Ulaanbaatar
Energy Efficiency Improvement「Overwrapping insulation method (ECO-AIM)」 of insulation installation ispatented by NICHIAS Corporation and contributes not only to emission reduction ofgreenhouse gas but also to the effect against atmospheric pollution and the waste
reduction because of non-requirement for removal of existing insulation.

Description ofproject

The project is to install the project insulation material by 「Overwrapping insulation
method (ECO-AIM)」 onto existing asbestos insulation of main steam pipes fromoutlets of existing boilers to inlets of existing turbine in both of CHP3 & CHP4. It
realizes emission reduction of radiation heat quantity from surfaces of heat andgenerating facilities and carbon dioxide and also prevents scattering asbestos fromthe existing insulation.

Expected project
implementer

Japan

Kanden Plant Corporation

Host country

ＣＨＰ３＆CHP4(￥MILLION）
Initial investment

CHP3

CHP4

１４１

１８７

Date of groundbreaking

Late July in 2015

Construction period

16 months

Date of projectcommencement

November 1, 2016(￥MILLION）
Annualmaintenance cost
Willingness toinvestment

CHP3

CHP4

１

１

Yes

・ CHP3 held technical committee on 17 September 2014 and approved
Financial plan ofproject

implementation of project based on the result of technical deliberations. And CHP3
intends to use the state budget (Ministry of Energy) for the project because of severebudgetary condition of CHP3.
The study team visited Ministry of Energy and requested urgent consideration to2

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Reportfinance for implementation of CHP3 project after confirmation of no technicalproblem in conference in the science and technical committee held by Ministry ofEnergy・CHP4 confirmed that no technical problem exists for the project in attended
capacity building by Kanden-Plant in September 2014. CHP4 approved
implementation of the project by the result of conference on technical issues as noproblem in technical committee held on 23 September 2014. The study teamconfirmed that CHP4 intends to finance for implementation of the project using
CHP4’s own budget.
(tCO2/y)Project activity
GHG emission
reductions

Breakdown of

CHP3

CHP4

Total

761

962

1,723

savings
Overwrapping

Reduction of theInsulation

amount of heat

Installation

dissipation

2. Study Contents(1) Project development and implementation
1) Project planningａ． Specification of existing insulation materials
Specifications of existing insulation materials of main steam pipes in CHP3 & CHP4 surveied byhearings are as shown in the table below.
(unit mm)ObjectMain steam
pipes

CHP3: Structure of

Insulation

CHP4: Structure of

Insulation

insulation materials

thicknessinsulation materials

thickness

Fire-resiting cement +Fire-resiting cement +Calcium silicate + Asbestos

150

cementCalcium silicate + Asbestos

200

cement※1) Structures and thicknesses of insulation materials are not constant because just the available
materials at the times of past maintenance works were used.
ｂ． Applied areas of project insulation installations:(unit: m2)
CHP3

CHP4

2,211

3,300

ｃ． Thickness of project insulation materials:
It was agreed through the discussion on the thickness of project insulation material with CHP3 &CHP4 that 20mm of thickness of “overwrapping insulation method” is applied to all the steam pipesfrom the boiler outlets to the turbine inlets except the common header pipe to the new unit of turbine
3

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Reportinstalled in 2014 after comparison among the cases of plan A (10mm), plan B (20mm) and plan C(40mm) (additionally 30mm in CHP4) of thicknesses. This was revised the proposal at the time of FS
in 2014 that the “overwrapping insulation method” is applied to the representative unit of boiler andmain steam pipes pertaining to the boiler.
ｄ．Project implementation structure and roles of entities for the CHP4 project are shown in thetable below.

<Roles of entities>
Name of Divisions

Roles

First Deputy Director

General manager of the main entity of the project who is totally（Chief Engineer）

responsible in the project.

Head of Research ＆ Development Manager of representative department of CHP4 who makes andDepartment

submits required documents for the project in Mongolia.

Head of Production Department

Responsible person for collecting monitoring data in CHP4

Boiler Section

Records running time of boilers and result of daily check of
installed insulation.

Turbine Section

Records running time of turbines and result of daily check of
installed insulation.

Head of Maintenance Department

Responsible person who orders and controls site insulation
installation works and temporary works.

Control Department
Kanden Plant Corporation

Executes safety control in site works.
A joint entity of the project who executes schedule andquality controls in site works and responsible to processes for4

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

JCM (submits required documents to the Japanese governors
after completion of the project).
NICHIAS Corporation

A joint entity of the project who executes procurement andtransportation of insulation materials, supervising of site
installation work and support of monitoring trial.

Local Contractor

Executes site insulation installation and temporary works.

ｅ．Project schedule
Major items of project schedules are shown in the table below.
Item
Content
PeriodMaterial
From procurement of project material
From 1 April 2016 to
Procurement and sub-materials to delivery to the sites
15 June 2016
From temporary works including
Insulation
scaffolding assembly, insulation
From 1 June 2016 tomaterialmaterial installation, to finish of
30 September 2016
installation
temporary works including scaffolding
dismantlement
From 15 September
Monitoring
Installation of monitoring material and2016 to 31 Octobertrial
training of implementers of monitoring
2016

Duration
2.5 months

4 months

1.5 months

2) Permits and License for the project development and implementation
Required permits and licenses for the project in each power plant of CHP3 & CHP4 have beenobtained.
It requires environmental impact assessment that is to implement detailed environmental impact
assessment after implementation of general environmental impact assessment complied with article 7 ofthe law of environmental impact assessment in Mongolia.
It is agreed with each of CHP3 & CHP4 by conference that required procedure for the environmental
impact assessment is executed by the CHP’s section in charge of environmental issues after the JCM
project is officially adopted.
It is confirmed that required variety of documents for the environmental impact assessment are mostly
prepared.

3) Advantage of Japanese technology
There is no equivalent competing technology executed in the project, 「Overwrapping insulation
method (ECO-AIM)」. It has been a simple idea to improve thermal insulating performance by means ofoverwrapping a new insulation material onto an existing insulation material. However, 「Overwrapping
insulation method (ECO-AIM)」 realizes extreme improvement in thermal insulating performance byusing thin sheet type of insulation material having excellent thermal insulating performance andminimizing increase of insulation thickness regardless of easy installation of it. Therefore it is patented
in Japan and applied (disclosed) an international patent as there is no competing method.
5

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report※It is released that there is no problem in thermal performances for twenty (20) years as the life of the
project insulation material by the documentation of the supplier.

4) MRV structure
It is not necessary to add new section in CHP3 & CHP4 for implementation of MRV in emission
reduction project. It is based on the present system. Therefore additional loads in CHPs are not requiredand constructing sustainable MRV systems are expected as available.
It is planned that each CHP implements monitoring activities within regular operation, collects
monitoring data and makes monitoring report. Kanden-Plant confirms the monitoring report and submit
it to JC after taking verification by TPE.

5) Environmental integrity and Sustainable development in host country
It is confirmed that the project activity is expected not to be a target object of detailed environmental
impact assessment.
Life prolongation of existing facilities is realized by means of execution of 「Overwrapping insulation
method (ECO-AIM)」 to coal thermal power plants in Mongolia. The coal thermal power plants
continuously use the facilities maintaining necessary performances and it results to save wasting social
expenses. The fact leads sustainable development in Mongolia.
CHP3 & CHP4 use the thermal insulation material of the combination of asbestos cement and calcium
silicate and it gives serious problems in thermal performance and environmental view. One is of theperformance, high surface temperature of facilities and large radiation heat quantity from the surface.
Another is state of disposal and scattering of asbestos.
It is understood by the result of hearing in the local surveys that local parties highly expect such
insulation method by means of new technology. 「Overwrapping insulation method (ECO-AIM)」 is
the solution for the problems in performance and environment maintaining the existing insulation andsubstantial contribution for sustainable development is expected by the use of it.

6) Toward project realization (planned schedule and possible obstacles to be overcome)General implementation schedule (planned) for the project as follows.
a. Adoption of facility investment project by Ministry of Environment in Japan: July 2015b. Application and approval of methodology (proposed): August 2015c. Environmental impact assessment: August 2015
d. Submittal of PDD (proposed) to JC/ NREC: January 2016
e. Start of validation: January 2016
f. Application of registration as JCM project: April 2016
g. Start of installation works (procurement of insulation materials) to end of installation works: April 2016
to September 2016
h. Opening of credit account: October 2016
i. Monitoring: November 2016 to 31 March 2021
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JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

Concerned subjects for developing JCM and solutions are shown in the table below.
No.

Concerned subject for developing

Solution

JCM
1.

Simplification of monitoring activity

One of the follows of monitoring is to be selected:① to limit the monitoring onto the acting quantity of sending
power to the grid, or,② to automate the monitoring by monitoring equipment.
In case of ①, it is required to make methodology as
project-wise specified methodology and fix the monitoring
items except the activity as default values and reference
value. To the purpose, default value sustaining validity during
monitoring period and reference value is to be defined.
Therefore, validated analysis using detailed past data isrequired.
In the case of ②, installation of monitoring equipment
available to automate is required that results to be costly.
Every case of ① and ②, cost is expected to be expensive
and feasibility of JCM project is to be reduced in case themonitoring cost (including MRV) is covered by PP.

2.

MRV activities (verification/

It is required to develop TPE in the host country. It isvalidation): Cost for verification andimpossible to develop TPE as educating the persons operating

validation are unclear.

by themselves in the level of several times per year of

Validation is costly in caseseminar. It is possible to develop TPE utilizing experienced

implemented by Japanese TPE.

persons and organizations on validation and verification andVerification is implemented in every

referencing actual projects as models. Such supporting

monitoring period and affecting toactivities for developing TPE in the host country by Japanesebudget. It is to be concerned as muchgovernment are necessary.

costly in case implemented by the
TPE out of the host country.

Verification by Japanese TPE is considered as notsustainable in the view of its cost and future of credit isunclear.

3.

Scheme for facility investment

Project is to be delayed one year if financial measures by

project is not entirely conformed toboth of Japan and the host country are required. The periods

the situation in the host countryof financial year are different as every April to March inbecause it is based on the facility

Japan and every January to December in most of the hostinvestment projects in Japan.

country. Therefore even the budget for a year is assured inJapan, it is not meet to the timing of financing in the hostcountry and sent to the next financial year in some cases, thatgives a year of delay.
7

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final ReportAnd facility investment project is based on the project inJapan. It results to increase table works because estimation isunfit to the JCM project and influences financial planningbecause it is uncertain what rate of estimated amountbecomes the objective of the investment.
Eventually, JCM project is recommendable only for the
project that investment is not necessary at this time.
4.

Concept of PDD and methodology isunclear.

”JCM Guidelines for Developing PDD and Monitoring
Report” of ”Example of a Monitoring Report Sheet” is thesame description as ”JCM Guidelines for Developing
Proposed Methodology” of ”Proposed methodology
spreadsheet”.
The versatility of applied methodology in CDM is assured
as methodology is applicable to the project when applicabilityof methodology is satisfied. Therefore, required eligibility
criteria are defined when PDD is formulated as methodology
is applied to the specified project in CDM. It is thatmethodology defines eligibility criteria and description of
methodology is not the same as PDD because PDD describes
contents to the project according to eligibility criteria of
methodology in CDM.
When the description of methodology is the same as PDD
as indicated in the JCM guideline, a methodology is to be
applied to a specified project.
If so, it is enough only to approve a PDD to the specified
project and it is not necessary previously to formulate amethodology and approve the methodology by JC. However,
it is difficult previously to define what type of project is the
project with additionality to the host country in such themanner. The additionality is to be judged every time of
judgment of PDD by JC at the result and trouble to JC is
possibly increased.
Therefore, it is necessary to define the concept of PDD andmethodology as to require versatility or specified type to theindividual project to the methodology.

5.

Establishment of panel ofmethodology

High level of specialties are necessary to validate/ verify
methodology and PDD regardless to require versatility or
specified type to the individual project. Especially to such thetype of this project, it is required not only knowledge of8

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

operation in power plant but also specialists for heat, boiler,
turbine and condenser.
JC is organized by governmental persons from both thecountries and it is necessary to secure persons who are able toprovide enough materials for judgment.
We propose to establish a panel of methodology that is
assembled with various fields of specialists from Japan andthe host country to the purpose
6.

Restrictions on implementation of

Even the party that is certified by DOE or ISO1405 in

validation/ verification,

foreign country such as Japan is not able to implement

establishment of ISO14065

validation/ verification in Mongolia unless the party iscertification system and training ofauthorized by Mongolian Agency for Standardization and

TPE candidates

Metrology (MASM, corresponding to METI of Japan &JAB).
However, the certification system of ISO14065 is currently
not established in Mongolia. Therefore, it was agreed due tonegotiation between the members of JC (Joint Committee),
Ministry of Environment and Green Development andMongolian Agency for Standardization and Metrology thateven foreign TPE is able to implement validation/ verification
without authorization by Mongolian Agency forStandardization and Metrology during the early stage(transition period: 2 to 3 years) of JCM system till TPE in
Mongolia is established.
Accordingly, it is expected that establishment of approvalsystem of ISO14065 and Mongolian parties assigned to TPEwith certification of ISO 14065 during the 2 to 3 years oftransition period. It is necessary for the purpose to establish
ISO 1405 certification system by Mongolian Agency forStandardization and Metrology and certification of ISO14065
to local TPE candidates.
From above, it is considered that capacity buildings to
Mongolian Agency for Standardization and Metrology andthe local TPE candidates are required in 2014.
We propose that JC and Mongolian Agency forStandardization and Metrology are together to establish apanel of certification assembled with authorized specialists
who are persons provide enough materials for JC’s judgment
for the purpose of ISO14065 certification based on JCM
9JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

scheme and assignment of TPE by JC.
And we consider that conditions for certification of
ISO14065 by the member of IAF (International Accreditation
Forum) are to be satisfied under this proposal.

(2) JCM methodology development
1) Eligibility criteria
As the following table, 5 items are listed. Intentions for setting are described in right columns.
Criterion 1

The project activity is to reduce heat

This criterion is a fundamental item whatquantity radiated from surfaces of existing

activity is applicable to the methodology.

main steam pipe system in coal-fired
thermal power plant due to thermal
insulation installation by application ofhigh performing thermal insulationmaterials.
Criterion 2

Criterion 3

Installation works can be carried out

This criterion is a fundamental item what

without removing existing thermal

facility is applicable to project activity

insulation materials (e.g. asbestos).

described in Criterion 1.

Non-asbestos Flexible Aerogel thermalThis criterion is an item for ensuring

insulation is to be employed in order toenvironmental integrity.

ensuring appropriate installation works
which prevent scatter of asbestos.
Furthermore, fluorocarbon foaming agent
is not also to be contained in the material
from a standpoint of environmental
integrity.
Criterion 4

Thermal insulation materials employed for
project has apparent thermal at the samelevel as or lower than (not exceeding plus
20% of) ones defined by ASTM C1728-12
and ones calculated by the following
approximate expression extrapolated tohigh temperature range based on ones

This criterion is an item for additionality
which ensures emission reduction effect by
employed technology
ASTM C1728 is selected for Flexible
Aerogel Insulation for criterion forjudgment, in order to ensuring objective
superiority.
ASTM C1728 standardizes the
specification.

defined by ASTM C1728-12.
Thermal conductivity of Flexible Aerogel
thermal insulation defined by ASTM
C1728-12

10

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

Mean

Apparent thermal

Temperature

conductivity[C][W/m･K]

23.9

0.021

37.8

0.022

93.3

0.023

149

0.025

204

0.029

260

0.032

316

0.036

371

0.043

Approximate expression extrapolated tohigh temperature range based thermal
conductivity of Flexible Aerogel thermal
insulation defined by ASTM C1728-12
= 2.771E10･3  3.098 E9･2 +3.328
E5･ +0.02034
where;
 : Thermal conductivity of Flexible
Aerogel thermal insulation [W/m･K]
 : Temperature [C]
Criterion 5

Thermal insulation materials employed forThis criterion is an item for ensuring highproject covers operating high temperature

performance of employed production.

range for the project as the manufacturer’s

The manufacturer’s catalog value iscatalog value.

selected for information for making an
judgment because of various conditions atthermal power plants.

2) Calculation of GHG emissions (including reference and project emissions)
The reference emissions and the project emissions are calculated as follows;
Reference emissions [tCO2/y]=( Reference radiation heat quantity [W/m2]  Reference radiation surface area [m2]  Steam flow
hours in main steam pipe line [h/y] )  3600*10-9 / Boiler efficiency []  CO2 emission factor of coal[tCO2/GJ]
Reference radiation surface area [m2]= Surface area covered by existing thermal insulation material where will be installed by the project11

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

thermal insulation material [m2]  (1-Total area where project thermal insulation materials have stripped[m2] / Surface area covered by the project thermal insulation material [m2])Project emissions [tCO2/y]=( Project radiation heat quantity [W/m2]  Project radiation surface area [m2]  Steam flow hours inmain steam pipe line [h/y] )  3600*10-9 / Boiler efficiency []  CO2 emission factor of coal [tCO2/GJ]
Project radiation surface area [m2]= Surface area covered by the project thermal insulation material [m2]  (1-Total area where project
thermal insulation materials have stripped [m2] / Surface area covered by the project thermal insulationmaterial [m2])Project radiation heat quantity [W/m2]= Reference radiation heat quantity [W/m2]  {1 - (Initial thermal insulation efficiency by the project
thermal insulation material [-]  (1 - Decreasing rate from initial thermal insulation efficiency of the
project thermal insulation material [-] )}Reference radiation heat quantity
2

Parameter to be fixed ex ante.

[W/m ]

These values are identified by this FS.

Initial thermal insulation(Please see “3) Data and parameters fixed ex ante”.)

efficiency by the project thermal
insulation material [-]Boiler efficiency [-]Default value.
1.0(Most conservative value) is applied to the parameter, although
in conservative manner.

CO2 emission factor of coal

Default value.

[GJ/tCO2]0.101GJ/tCO2 is applied to the parameter according to default value
for lignite in “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventory”.

Decreasing rate from initial thermal Monitoring parameter.
insulation efficiency of the project

Based on actual measurement value for 2 thermal conductivities,

thermal insulation material [-]this value is calculated in conservative manner as follows;(Please see regarding justification for the following equation)
Decreasing rate from initial thermal insulation efficiency of the
project thermal insulation material={(Thermal conductivity of used project thermal insulationmaterial)}/ (Thermal conductivity of new project thermal insulationmaterial)
12

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

Total area where project thermal

Monitoring parameter.

insulation materials have stripped·On the last day during each monitoring period, the person in

2

[m ]

chargedoes checking whether physical damaged points arefounded or not at all installation areas of the project thermal
insulation and takes some electronic pictures for evidences.)·Physical damaged areas are counted in conservative manner.
Surface area covered by theParameters to be fixed after 1st verification.

project thermal insulation material

The following parameters are not needed to monitor but cannot be[m2]parameters to be fixed ex ante, because these ones will be fixedSurface area covered by existing

after installation work of the project thermal insulation.

thermal insulation material where
will be installed by the project
thermal insulation material [m2]
Steam flow hours in main steam

Monitoring parameter.

pipe line [h/y][In case of boiler-common steam header line]
Hourly data for steam flow rate, steam temperature and steampressure in the main steam pipe at the boiler outlet is manually
recorded in the control room.
In case that hourly values for these parameters are recorded, theoperation of on-off bulb of steam during the hour is regarded as
on-status.
In case that hourly values for these parameters are not recorded, theoperation of on-off bulb of steam during the hour is regarded as
off-status.
[In case of common steam header-turbine line]
The following parameters are manually recorded in the control
room.
·Hourly data for electricity generated the generator linked theturbine·Hourly data for steam flow rate, steam temperature and steampressure in the main steam pipe at the turbine inlet
This parameter is counted by one of above-mentioned two items.
In case that hourly value for this parameter is recorded, the turbine
operation (steam is fed to the turbine) during the hour is regarded
as on-status.
In case that hourly value for this parameter is not recorded, theturbine operation (steam is fed to the turbine) during the hour is13

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

regarded as on-status.
[In case of common steam header line]
In conservative manner, this value is counted by average steam
flow hours on all common header-turbine steam lines.

3) Data and parameters fixed ex ante
Identification method of reference radiation heat quantity and thermal insulation efficiency by the project
thermal insulation material (which are parameters fixed ex ante)
In this FS, the following study was performed for the purpose of identification method of reference
radiation heat quantity and thermal insulation efficiency by the project thermal insulation material (which
are parameters fixed ex ante)Pyrogel XT (Project thermal insulation material for the proposal project) has actually installed forsample at 6 areas on main steam pipes at CHP3 (high pressure unit) and CHP4.
At each area of 6 one, 4 positions (1 position for non-installation and 3 installation positions for
thickness of 10mm, 20mm and 40mm) are set.
At each area, radiation heat quantities with and without installation were identified by the following 2
methods;- Taking thermographic images by infrared thermography (including measuring surface temperature
and ambient temperature by contact type thermo-meter) just before measurement of heat flow meter- Measuring radiation heat quantity by heat flow meter
Characteristics of infrared thermography and heat flow meter are as follows;- Infrared thermography cannot directly measure radiation heat quantity from the surface of themeasured object, but can provide a radiation heat distribution from a wide area (can indirectly convert toradiation heat quantity (heat flow) according to equations based on JIS 9501.).
- Heat flow meter can directly measure radiation heat quantity (heat flow) from the surface of themeasured object for pinpoint (for only area attached by the sensor), but cannot measure widely.
The surface temperature distribution on the existing thermal insulation material at CHPs in Mongolia
ranges in scope, because the content of asbestos in the existing thermal insulation material areconsiderably different with location and we can see many deterioration points on them.
Under these circumstances, infrared thermography is better for the measurement, however reference
radiation heat quantity cannot be identified only by data identified based on infrared thermography,
because infrared thermography cannot directly measure radiation heat quantity from the surface of themeasured object.
So, values of radiation heat quantity identified by infrared thermography were compared with ones
measured by heat flow meter. The correlation chart between both ones is as follows;14

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

1200

Measured values of radiation heat
quantity by heat flow meter (Averagevalues for only area attached by the1000

y = 1.2876x
R² = 0.4684

800

600

400

200

0
0
200 of radiation
400
600
800 according
1000 to 1200
Calculation
valuesheat quantity
thermalpicture analysis of data by infrared thermography and contact typethermo-meter (Just before measuring by heat flow meter starts)[W/m2]

Figure Correlation chart between both values for radiation heat quantity identified by heat flow meter andinfrared thermography
As the Figure illustrates, values measured by heat flow meter are wholly a little higher than ones
calculated by infrared thermography. As for correlation between both ones, it follows that thecontributing rate is 0.4684 (the correlation coefficient is 0.6844.). One could argue that this correlation issignificant to a satisfactory extent although sample correlation coefficient is 0.368326 in case of in casesample size of 48 and significance level of 1%.
Furthermore, values measured by heat flow meter are wholly a little higher than ones calculated byinfrared thermography. So, data of thermal diagnosis (in FS of FY2013) is applied to identify the
representative value for reference radiation heat quantity (before thermal insulation installation) inconservative manner.
The thermal diagnosis test for CHP3 was performed on 15 and 16 October in 2013. And the one for
CHP4 was performed on 21 and 23 in October 2013. The season is seemed to close to be theannually-averaged one. According to the result of these tests, there was no measuring point for ambient
temperatures around main steam pipes over 45 C.
So, for the purpose of identifying reference radiation heat quantity in conservative manner, 45C isapplied to the conservative value for ambient temperature around main steam pipe at CHP3 and CHP4.

15

Radiation heat quantity adjusted conservative
ambient temperature (45C) [W/m2]

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report
1800
1600

1400

The upper limit value of 95% confidence interval:
1,178 [W/m2]

1200

Average value for all
data: 673 [W/m2]

Average value
within 95%
confidence
interval:
647 [W/m2]

1000

800
600
400

The lower limit value of 95% confidence
interval: : 181[W/m2]

200
0

Average value
up to the upper
limit value of
95% confidence
interval:
647 [W/m2]

Radiation heat quantity adjusted conservative
ambient temperature (45C) [W/m2]

Figure Sorting figure for conservative radiation heat quantities (CHP3 high pressure unit)
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400

Average value for all
data: 491 [W/m2]

The upper limit value of 95% confidence interval:
1,360 [W/m2]

The lowper limit value of 95% confidence interval: : -369W/m2]

Averagevalue
within 95%
confidence
interval:
383 [W/m2]

Average value
up to the upper
limit value of
95% confidence
interval:
383 [W/m2]

Figure Sorting figure for conservative radiation heat quantities (CHP4)
For each CHP3 and CHP4, the average value up to the upper limit value of 95% confidence interval isapplied to the representative value for reference radiation heat quantity (which is a parameter fixed ex
ante, in conservative manner) in conservative manner.
Reference radiation heat quantity at CHP3 high pressure unit: 647 W/m2
Reference radiation heat quantity at CHP4: 383 W/m2
Next, based on radiation heat quantities with and without installation identified by infrared thermography
at 4 positions (1 position for non-installation and 3 installation positions for thickness of 10mm, 20mm
and 40mm) are set., decreasing rates of radiation heat quantity (according to installation thickness ofproject thermal insulation material) was calculated as the following figure;.

16

JCM Feasibility Study (FS) 2014 – Final Report

Thermal insulation efficiency by the
project thermal insulation material（Average for area on mains steam pipe
theraml pictre within the view） []

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
y = e-0.025x
R² = 0.6812

0.2
0.0

0

10

20

30

40

Thickness of project thermal insulation material [mm]Figure Decreasing rate of radiation heat quantity according to installation thicknessof project thermal insulation material
According to the exponential approximation formula, it follows that the contributing rate is 0.6812 (thecorrelation coefficient is 0.8524.). One could argue that this correlation is significant to a satisfactory
extent although sample correlation coefficient is 0.575067 in case of in case sample size of 19 andsignificance level of 1%.
According to the exponential approximation formula, initial thermal insulation efficiency by the project
thermal insulation material was identified as the follows; In case of installation thickness of 10mm: 0.22 [Non-dimension] In case of installation thickness of 20mm: 0.39 [Non-dimension] In case of installation thickness of 40mm: 0.63 [Non-dimension]17