Participatory approaches and geospatialmodeling for increased resilience to climate change at the local level

PCLM Guidebook
Participatory coastal land-use management

Participatory Coastal Land-Use Management (PCLM) Guidebook: Participatory approaches and geospatial modeling for increased resilience to climate change at the local level
Authors:
Brian A. Johnson, Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog, Pankaj Kumar, Rajarshi Dasgupta, Masayuki Kawai
Layout and design: Aoki, Masato© Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, and Japanese Ministry of Environment. All rights reserved.
Publisher: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
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Tel: +81-46-855-3700 , Fax: +81-46-855-3709
E-mail: iges@iges.or.jp
URL: http://www.iges.or.jp
IGES is an international research institute conducting practical and innovative research for realising sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region. No parts of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by anymeans, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system,without prior permission in writing from IGES. Although every effort is made to ensure objectivity and balance, the publication of research results or translation does not imply IGES endorsement or acquiescence with its conclusions or theendorsement of IGES financers. IGES maintains a position of neutrality at all times on issues concerning public policy.
Hence conclusions that are reached in IGES publications should be understood to be those of the authors and not attributed to staff members, officers, directors, trustees, funders, or to IGES itself.

Suggested citation:
Johnson, B.A., Magcale-Macandog, D. M., Kumar, P., Dasgupta, R., Kawai, M. (2021). Participatory coastal land-use management (PCLM) guidebook: Participatory approaches and geospatial modeling for increased resilience to climate change at
the local level. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

Acknowledgements
The development of this training guidebook was kindly supported by the Japanese Ministry of Environment under the“Knowledge sharing and human resources development on climate change adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region” project,
for the fiscal years 2019-2020. We would like to express our thanks to the Japanese government for their support and guidance throughout this project. We would also like to thank all of the local and national government officials from the Philippines who participated in on-site/online trainings and helped us to improve this PCLM guidebook, specifically the local
governments of: Baco, Bansud, Bongabong, Bulalacao, Calapan City, Gloria, Mansalay, Naujan, Pinamalayan, Pola, Puerto
Galera, Roxas, San Teodoro, Socorro, and Victoria; and the Oriental Mindoro Provincial Agricultural Office. Without yoursupport, this project and guidebook would not have been possible.

Concept and objectives of this PCLM Guidebook
This guidebook is intended to provide an overview of how to conduct climate change and land-use change impact assessments at the local level, so that the local impacts on water, biodiversity, and health can be better understood. A key aspectof the guidebook is the tutorials provided for conducting climate change/land-use change scenario analysis and impact
assessment using free software. The methodology presented (PCLM) and training materials provided can help local governments with their climate change adaptation and land-use planning, and is designed to complement/support countries’
official planning processes. Using these training materials as a basis, more intensive in-person (or online) trainings canalso be conducted to provide more specialized or location-specific trainings in priority sites.

Table of Contents
Chapter 1:

Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management(PCLM) approach

4

Chapter 2:

Land-use change scenario analysis
Chapter 3:

Climate change scenario analysis

14

24

Chapter 4:

Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST
software32

Chapter 5:

Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-level
Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

42

Chapter 6:

Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation
and Planning (WEAP) tool

56

Chapter 7:

Identifying countermeasures for increased resilience tocoastal hazards

78Chapter 1:
Introduction to Participatory
Coastal Land-use Management(PCLM) approach
Overview
This guidebook introduces several concepts and methodologies for evaluating andbuilding resilience to climate change and land-use change in coastal areas, focusing on the local level (e.g. the municipal or provincial level). Specifically, it presents
a framework that we developed, called “Participatory Coastal Land-use Management” (PCLM), which utilizes various participatory approaches and geospatial modeling techniques to quantitatively evaluate the potential impacts of climate change
and land-use changes, and to develop suitable local countermeasures.
The target of the PCLM approach is to help the local governments located in coastal areas work together to quantify climate change/ land-use change impacts anddevelop more resilient development plans, so that future generations can be protected from climate-related hazards and continue enjoying the benefits provided bynature. This guidebook is intended for technical experts (environmental scientists,hydrologists, GIS experts, etc.) and managers/policymakers working at the local
level.
Brian A. Johnson
Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog
Rajarshi Dasgupta
Pankaj Kumar
Masayuki Kawai

In this chapter, you will:
Learn how climate change and land-use change can affect coastal communities’ resilience at a local scale.
Be introduced to the steps involved in the Participatory Coastal Land-use Management(PCLM) approach, which will be covered in detail in subsequent chapters.

4

Main concepts
Mangroves, coral reefs, sea grasses, and other coastal

our planet. They are constantly shaped and reshaped

ecosystems provide a wide range of ecosystem services toby the winds and waves, and frequently affected by cli-

coastal communities, including food provisioning, natu-

mate-related hazards including typhoons and coastal

ral shoreline stabilization, and protection against storms

floods. Global climate change is expected to raise the sea

and floods. As one example, mangroves’ (which are natu-

level and increase typhoon frequency and/or intensity inrally found in many regions affected by typhoons) dense

many parts of the world, which may further exacerbate

aerial root systems trap sediments floating in the water

coastal hazards (IPCC 2019). Despite their high exposureand build up the soil over time, forming a natural “buffer”

to climate hazards, coastal areas are home to many ofwhich protects inland areas from coastal flooding andthe world’s megacities and vast infrastructure (e.g. large

sea-level rise (Figure 1.1.). In the context of climate change,

ports, power plants, and roads/railways), owing to thecoastal ecosystems can help to reduce several negative

economic benefits associated with access to the ocean.

impacts, including: increasing storm frequency/intensity,

Coastal areas are also home to important land, estuarine,

sea-level rise, sea surface temperature rise, and ocean

and marine ecosystems that are rich in biodiversity. As aacidification (UNEP 2016). However, coastal ecosystemmelting pot of diverse stakeholder interests, coastal areas

are often not prioritized in coastal land-use planning andoften undergo rapid land-use changes, serving different

development processes because it is difficult to visualize

commercial and recreational purposes. These land-use

and quantify their various benefits.

changes can lead to loss or degradation of coastal ecosystems.

Figure 1.1. Soil accretion in mangrove ecosystems. The dense root system traps sediments and builds-up the soil, protecting further inland areas from sea-level rise, storm surge, and other coastal hazards. Source: Authors.

5

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Coastal areas are some of the most dynamic areas on

Increased intensity ofstorms and hurricanes

Coastal EbA
optionSea surface temperature rise

Sea level rise

Ocean acidiﬁcation

Coral reef
restoration andconservation

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
pollution) and encouraging
temperature tolerant species may
reduce incidence of coral bleaching
and increase the resilience of services
provided by reefs (e.g. habitat for ﬁsh,tourism) to temperature increases.

Reefs can attenuate (reduce the heightand power of) waves. Reducing theheight of waves reaching the shore
can decrease wave inundation (to acertain extent). When corals grow as
sea level rises this attenuation service
can be maintained.

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
high nutrient pollution and overﬁshingof herbivorous ﬁsh) increases theresilience of reefs to climate change
impacts.
Services provided by reefs are more
likely to be maintained if other threats
are effectively managed.

Wave attenuation by reefs can reduce
the power of storm waves reaching theshore and thereby reduce coastal
ﬂooding and erosion.

Mangrove
restoration andconservation

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
pollution) and encouraging
temperature tolerant tree species may
increase the resilience of services
provided by mangroves (e.g. habitat forﬁsh) to temperature increases.

Mangroves can attenuate waves and so
reduce wave inundation (to a certain
extent). They also capture sedimentand so help counteract coastal erosion.
Where mangroves accrete (verticallybuild up soil) as sea level rises thesecoastal protection services can be
maintained (up to certain thresholds).

Reducing non-climate pressuresincrease the resilience of services
provided by mangroves to acidiﬁcation.
Mangroves have also been found to act
as a refuge for corals from ocean
acidiﬁcation. Therefore, protecting amosaic of habitats (e.g.
mangroves near coral reefs) could
provide resilience beneﬁts.

Mangrove forests attenuate waves andslow storm surge water ﬂows if
mangroves areas are wide enough.

Seagrass
restoration andconservation

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
pollution) and encouraging
temperature tolerant tree species may
increase the resilience of services
provided by mangroves (e.g. habitat forﬁsh) to temperature increases.

Seagrasses can reduce current velocity,dissipate wave energy and stabilize thesediment, most reliably in shallow
waters. Reducing the height of waves
reaching the shore can decrease wave
inundation (to a certain extent).
Stabilizing sediment can help
seagrasses accrete with sea level rise
under certain sedimentation andaccretion rates.

Seagrass meadows have been shown insome locations to have a buffering
effect on pH, modifying
it through photosynthetic activity. As aresult, healthy seagrass beds may
provide a refuge for calcifying
organisms.
In addition, seagrass biomass isincreased by ocean acidiﬁcation
leading to increased carbon
sequestration.

Seagrass can reduce current velocity,dissipate wave energy and stabilize
the sediment most reliably in shallow
waters and low wave energy
environments.

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
clearing and trampling) andencouraging dune plant development
increases the resilience of services
provided by dunes and beaches. Dunes
can act as a physical buffer to waves
and so provide some barrier to wave
inundation as sea levels rise.

Dune and beachrestoration andconservation(dune
stabilization)

Coastal wetland
conservation andrestoration

Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g.
pollution) and encouraging
temperature tolerant species may
increase the resilienceof services provided by wetlands (e.g.
habitat for ﬁsh) to temperature
increases.

Dunes can act as a buffer to waves andstorm surges.
Their porous structure absorbs anddissipates wave energy, protecting
inland structures from ﬂooding anddamage. Dunes also provide additional
material which
re-enters the marine system andforms a new beach proﬁle after erosion
events.

Depending on the type, wetlands canhelp attenuate waves and so reducewave inundation. They may also act asa water store during times of highwater, reducing ﬂooding of coastal
areas.
Wetlands, including salt marshes, cantrap sediment and so may verticallybuild up soil as sea level rises. Coastal
wetlands can also help manage thehydrology of the area providing a
freshwater source necessary tomaintain other habitats such as salt
marsh and mangroves that thenprovide some protection against sea
level rise.

Redeﬁning the location of the coastline
and maintaining buffer ecosystems(such as saltmarshes) can help toreduce the impact of sea
level rise on communities.

Managedrealignment/
coastal setbacks

Redeﬁning the location of thecoastline and maintaining buffer
ecosystems can help protect
communities against storm surges.

Livelihoods
diversiﬁcationand protection of
ecosystem based
livelihoods

Supporting communities to protect anddiversify their livelihoods can help
reduce their reliance on livelihoods
which may be at risk from sea surface
temperature rises (e.g. ﬁshing of aparticular species).

Supporting communities to protect anddiversify their livelihoods can help
reduce their reliance on livelihoods
which may be at risk from sea level
rise.

Supporting communities to protect anddiversify their livelihoods can help
reduce their reliance on livelihoods
which may be at risk from acidiﬁcation(e.g. harvesting of a particular
crustacean or mussels may become
unsustainable in the face ofacidiﬁcation).

Supporting communities to protect
and diversify their livelihoods canhelp reduce their reliance on
livelihoods which may be at risk fromstorms and support themin recovering after storm events.

Marine protectedareas (MPAs) andother area- based
management
measures

MPA management, through helping to
reduce non- climate pressures, canhelp to increase the resilience of
ecosystems (and the services they
provide) to temperature rise.

Where MPAs protect ecosystems that
help to attenuate waves and canaccrete, they can help reduce wave
inundations as sea levels rise.

MPA management, through helping to
reduce non- climate pressures, canhelp to increase the resilience toacidiﬁcation of ecosystems and theservices they provide.

Where MPAs protect ecosystems that
help to attenuate storm waves, they
can help reduce associated coastal
ﬂooding and erosion.

Sustainableﬁsheriesmanagement
plans or
Ecosystem
approach toﬁsheries (EAF)

Where such plans take into account the
impact of temperatures on shifting
species distributions andabundances, they can help to manage
the impacts.

Where such plans take into account the
impact of acidiﬁcation
on shifting abundances andreproduction/growth patterns, they canhelp to manage the impacts.

Table 1.1. Benefits of different ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) meausures. Source: (UNEP 2016)
6

From the above, it is clear that climate change and land-use change can have significant impacts on people’s exposure toclimate-related hazards in coastal areas. In some cases, these hazards may result in “disasters”, i.e. major economic damage, injuries, and/or loss of lives. Local disaster risks associated with climate hazards are typically thought of as being
related to three factors:
1. The frequency and level of extremity of the climate-related hazards experienced in the locality;
2. The level of exposure to these climate-related hazards, e.g. the number of people and properties located in the impacted areas; and3. The level of vulnerability of the people/infrastructure/environment in the areas exposed to the climate-related hazards
Figure 1.2 shows how all three factors (i.e. hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) interact to determine disaster risk.

Hazards

Vulnerability・Social・Changing weather patterns

Risk・Financial

・Environmental

・Population

・Agriculture

・Infrastructure
・Property

Exposure
Figure 1.1. Concepts of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk.

Aside from their impacts on disaster risk, climate change

The impact chain is basically a graphical representationand land-use change can have a variety of other local

of how a specific climate or land-use modification (i.e. a

impacts. For example, loss/degradation of coastal man-“stimulus”) directly and indirectly affects a location ofgrove ecosystems due to changing climate conditions orinterest. The impact chain can be developed utilizing

land-use conversions (e.g. conversion to fishponds) may

scientific models, local knowledge, or other relevant in-result in the loss of biodiversity and deterioration of water

formation. One example of an impact chain is shown inquality (because the mangrove areas help trap sediments

Figure 1.3 to demonstrate the approach. From this exam-that run-off from upstream areas), among other things. To

ple, we can see that climate change (sea-level rise), urban

help visualize how these types of changes in climate and/land expansion, and agricultural land expansion can haveor land-use can impact the environment and society, one

many interlinked direct and indirect impacts. In casesinteresting tool is called the “impact chain”

like this where more than one stimulus is found to lead to(https://www.pik-potsdam.de/cigrasp-2/ic/ic.html).

the same impact, we can understand that this impact ishighly significant, and efforts should be made to mitigate
the problem.

7

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach・Physical

・Extreme Climatic events;

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Figure 1.3. Impact chain considering three stimuli: urban land expansion in coastal areas,
sea-level rise, and conversion of mangrove ecosystems to fishponds.

8

Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM)
approach
To estimate how climate change and land-use change

The PCLM approach utilizes a combination of participato-will affect a coastal area, planners and policymakers firstry processes and geospatial modeling techniques for thisneed to have an understanding of how the climate andimpact assessment and policy development, and consists

the land-use are likely to change in the future (e.g. overof four main steps:

the next 10, 20, or 50 years). Once future climate and land-

1. Scenario development: Future scenarios of land-use

use scenarios are identified, they can serve as input datachange and climate change are identified ;for different types of computer simulation models to es-

2. Impact assessment: Impacts of the future land-use

timate the impacts of these changes, e.g. on flood hazard,change/climate change scenario(s) are analyzed us-

water quality, or biodiversity. The “Participatory Coastal

ing different computer models and software;

Land-use Management” (PCLM) approach presented in

3. Countermeasure identification: Local governments

PCLM approach can help complement traditional ap-

within the coastal study site identify countermea-

proaches like the impact chain (Figure 1.3.) by helping tosures based on the risk assessments, and try to agree

quantify the potential impacts of future climate change

upon some priority countermeasures relevant for all

and/or land-use change.

local governments in the area (e.g. transboundary

In the PCLM approach, future climate and land-use sce-ecosystem-based or infrastructure measures);narios are generated, the impacts of these changes are

4. Climate resilient land-use planning andestimated using free software/computer models, local

implementation: Local governments use the identi-

governments identify countermeasures to reduce thesefied countermeasures to improve their land-use plans,

impacts, and finally the local governments adopt theseand for development of climate change adaptation

countermeasures in local plans and policies to increase

actions and policies. The identified countermeasures

their resilience to climate change. If some of the identified

can also be used to develop project proposals for do-

countermeasures require external funding from national

mestic or international sources of climate change

or international sources to implement (e.g. large ecosys-

adaptation funding (e.g. through the Green Climate

tem restoration or infrastructure building projects), theyFund:can be used as a basis to develop proposals for climate

https://www.greenclimate.fund/).

change adaptation funding from sources like the Green
Climate Fund (https://www.greenclimate.fund/). We hope

Figure 1.4. provides an overview of these four steps, andthat by using the PCLM approach, local governments andthe processes and software/tools required for each step.

other stakeholders can better understand the potential

All of these processes are described in more detail in theimpacts of climate change and land-use change in coast-

subsequent chapters, and you will learn how to apply

al areas, so that more effective policies, plans, and infra-

them yourselves through a series of hands-on tutorials.

structure can be put in place.

9

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

this guidebook is intended to help with this process. The

・Coastal vulnerability impact
assessment.

・Stakeholder consultations.
・Participatory mapping of futureland-use.

Scenario
Analysis・Downscaling climate model data

Software used:

・Improving local plans andpolicies incorporating identiﬁed
countermeasures.
・Applying for climate adaptation
funding to implement
countermeasures.

ImpactAssessment

Step 1

Step 2

Step 4

Step 3

Climate resilient
land-useplanning andimplementation

Countermeasure
Identiﬁcation

・Sea-level rise impact assessment.
・Water quality impactassessment
Software used:

・Stakeholder consultations.
・Participatory countermeasuredevelopment.

Figure 1.4. Four steps of the PCLM approach, and the different processes and software/tools required in each step.

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Step 1: Scenario Development (covered in Chapters 2 and 3)
In the first step of PCLM, future scenarios of land-use change and climate change are developed through participatory
mapping (for land-use scenarios) and downscaling of climate model projections (for climate change scenarios).

Land-use scenario development
To understand the likely future land-use changes of aopment) onto a printed map using markers and tracing

coastal area, a participatory mapping approach is used.

paper (see Figure 1.5 for some examples). Each local gov-

For this, a stakeholder consultation workshop should

ernment then presents its future land-use plans to the

be organized, wherein representatives from each local

other neighboring local governments, so that all have agovernment within a coastal study site share their land-

better understanding of the future land-use conditions

use and development plans. A map of the future land-of the coastline. Later, the sketched maps are digitizeduse is created through a participatory mapping activity.

and georeferenced using the free Geographic Information

Local government officials sketch their planned future

Systems (GIS) software “QGIS”. Chapter 2 of this guidebook

land-use conversions (e.g. based on their land-use plan,

provides a step-by-step tutorial on how to perform thisor their knowledge of planned land acquisitions/devel-land-use scenario development.

Climate change scenario development
To understand the future climate changes of a coastal

as Relative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Due to thestudy area, projections from General Circulation Models

high level of uncertainty of these future climate change(GCMs, a.k.a. Global Climate Models) or Regional Circu-

estimates, multiple scenarios should be used to show alation Models (RCMs, a.k.a. Regional Climate Models)

range of possible futures. For higher accuracy, the climate

are used. GCMs/RCMs are computer models of the future

model data should also be downscaled and bias-correctedclimate, assuming different levels of future greenhouseusing local climate observations. Chapter 3 of this guide-

gas emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climatebook covers the basics of GCMs, how to acquire the GCM

Change (IPCC) has estimated these future levels of emis-

data, and how to visualize it in QGIS software.

sions under different socioeconomic scenarios known

10

Step 1: Scenario development (Participatory GIS)

Main outputs of Step 1

Software used in Step 1

1. Current land-use map
2. Future land-use map

QGIS: https://www.qgis.org/en/site/

3. Downscaled climate data

(current and future daily/monthly data)

11

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Figure 1.5. Participatory future land-use mapping activity.

Step 2: Impact Assessment (Chapters 4, 5, and 6)
In the second step of PCLM, impact assessment, computer

software, based on tutorial data from a case study sitemodeling software is used to estimate various impacts ofin the Philippines. Chapter 5 shows you how to performthe future land-use and climate changes. For the PCLM

sea-level rise impact assessment in the same study site

approach to be open to as many as possible, in this guide-using SLAMM software. Chapter 6 shows you how to per-book we have demonstrated how to conduct all of the im-form coastal water quality impact assessment in this site

pact assessments using freely available GIS and modelingusing the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool.

software.

Through these tutorials, you will learn the basics of how

Chapter 4 of this guidebook shows you how to perform

to apply the PCLM models in your own coastal area.

coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST

Main outputs of Step 2
Water quality parameters(current and future)

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Flood hazard maps
(current and future)

Habitat quality maps
(current and future)

Software used in Step 2
QGIS: https://www.qgis.org/en/site/
SLAMM：https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slamm.html
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP): https://www.weap21.org/
InVEST: https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest

Step 3: Countermeasure Identification (Chapter 7)
In the third step of PCLM, countermeasures to reduce thenegative impacts of future land-use changes and climatechange are identified using a participatory process. For
this, the results of the impact assessments from Step 2 arepresented to all of the local governments within the coastal area, and the local government officials are asked tothink of potential countermeasures and write them down(e.g. using markers and adhesive notecards, as shown in
Figure 1.6.). Each local government presents their identified countermeasures, and finally, some common/priority

Figure 1.6. Stakeholder consultations to develop countermea-

countermeasures are discussed and identified.

sures for reducing the impacts of future land-use changes
and climate change.

Main outputs of Step 3

Software used in Step 3

List of countermeasures identiﬁed by each local government in the watershed
List of priority countermeasures for watershed as a whole12

No speciﬁc software neededStep 4: Climate resilient land-use planning and implementation (Chapter 7)
In the final step of PCLM, the priority countermeasures

Fund or other national/international climate adaptation

identified from Step 3 are used as a basis for developing

funds. Examples of the types of adaptation projects fund-more climate resilient land-use plans and other policies,

ed by the Green Climate Fund can be found at https://

as well as for implementing climate change adaptation

www.greenclimate.fund/projects?f[]=field_theme:235. The

actions and infrastructure. This is probably the most im-

Green Climate Fund and other types of adaptation funds

portant step of PCLM, as the goal of this step is to trans-

typically require a climate change impact assessment tolate the scientific information generated through PCLM

be conducted prior to applying for project funding (to jus-

into concrete actions.

tify why the funds are needed, and to estimate the benefits of the proposed project). The impact assessments from

Some countermeasures identified through PCLM may be

step 2 of PCLM provide the basis for this assessment.

possible for local governments to implement on their own
In Chapter 7 of this guidebook, we show some specific ex-some measures may be too costly for the local govern-

amples of the types of actions that could be taken in stepments to implement without external aid. In case external

4 of PCLM, based on the results of a case study conducted

aid is necessary, the identified countermeasures can bein the Philippines.

proposed as projects for funding by the Green Climate

Main outputs of Step 4

Software used in Step 4

1. More climate resilient local policies and plans
No speciﬁc software needed
2. Project proposals for climate change adaptation-related funds(to help implement any identiﬁed countermeasures that require external funding)

References
PCC. 2019. “Summary for Policymakers.” In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
UNEP. 2016. “Options for Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) in Coastal Environments: A Guide for Environmental Managers and Planners.” UNEP, Nairobi (June 2019): 110. https://www.unep-wcmc.org/system/dataset_file_fields/files/000/000/380/
original/Options_for_Ecosystem_based_Adaptation_in_Coastal_Environments_low-res.pdf?1462462607.

13

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach(e.g. changing zoning regulations or building codes), while

Chapter 2: Land-use change
scenario analysis

Overview of this chapter
Land-use changes can have a significant impact on the biodiversity, water quality,
Brian A. Johnson

and damage caused by extreme weather events in coastal areas. This chapter gives

Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog

an overview of the impacts of land-use changes, and demonstrates how to perform

Rajarshi Dasgupta

land-use change scenario analysis. In the chapter, you will learn how to create your

Pankaj Kumar

own maps of the current and future land-use of a study site using free Geographic

Masayuki Kawai

Information Systems (GIS) software. This represents the land-use change scenario
development component of PCLM Step 1 (“Scenario Analysis”). These maps willserve as the basis for conducting land-use change impact assessments in PCLM
Step 2 (“Impact Assessment”), which are explained in Chapters 4-6.

After completing the chapter, you will beable to:
Perform basic GIS operations in QGIS software (https://qgis.org/en/site/);Generate your own land-use maps showing the current and future (planned) land-use.

14

Main concepts
Land-use change and climate-related hazards in coastal areas
As introduced in Chapter 1, land-use is a major factor

quality in coastal areas, among other things. Coastal eco-that affects a community’s resilience to climate changesystems serve as habitat and nursing grounds to a range

and climate-related hazards. Conserving and restoringof aquatic animals, many of which have high economic

coastal mangroves, forests, wetlands, and other naturaland livelihood importance to the local communities.

ecosystems can reduce the cause of climate change (CO2

On the other hand, urban development and population

emissions) as well as the potential impacts like increased

growth in areas near the coast can lead to increased

coastal inundation and salt water intrusion. In contrast,

groundwater withdrawals for household and commercial/converting natural coastal ecosystems into urban or agri-

industrial use, which subsequently causes increased

cultural/aquacultural areas can have the opposite effect,salt-water intrusion (as salt water flows into the depleted

resulting in the release of CO2 emissions from deforesta-

fresh water aquifers). This can make the groundwater un-tion/forest degradation as well as increased climate-re-suitable for drinking and irrigation.

lated hazards like coastal flooding (due to reduced protection of the coastline from sea-level-rise and storm surge).

Of course, many different factors must be considered forland-use planning in coastal areas, such as demand forLand-use changes associated with urbanization can haveurban, agricultural, and recreational land to meet thealso have major impact on the biodiversity and waterneeds of growing populations and economies.

Data and software for land-use change mapping/analysis
land-use map is already available for your city/town (e.g.

of the tools/software that can help to better understanda land-use map produced by/regularly updated by yourand manage the potential impacts of future land-use

local government), this will probably be the best data tochanges. The first step of this land-use change impact as-use for an impact assessment. If a local land-use map

sessment process is to identify or create the needed land-

is not available, you can check online for other existinguse maps; including:global-, regional-, or national-level land-use maps to determine if they meet the level of detail (e.g. high enoughi. a map of the current (or nearly up-to-date) land-use;

spatial resolution, and a sufficient number of land-

anduse classes mapped) and accuracy that you require.
Finally, in case you need a more accurate/up-to-date/ii. a map of the planned (or potential) land-use for a

detailed land-use map than what is available, you candesired date in the future. Municipal land-use plans

always create your own by carefully digitizing land-

could be a basis for this future land-use map.

use polygons over a satellite image base map using GIS

It is important to note that the quality and quantity ofsoftware. (this digitizing process will be explained later

available land-use data may vary significantly from one

in the chapter). Figure 2.1. shows the general decision

location to another, so identifying the appropriate land-

process for identifying appropriate land-use maps foruse map(s) to use for impact assessment is not always

impact assessments.

a simple process. If an accurate and up-to-date local

15

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis

In this chapter, we will provide you with training in someLand-use map( current condition )Land-use map( future condition )Local Land-use map withacceptable level of accuracy
available?

Land-use map available (e.g.fromland-use/zoning plans) at thedesired time period in the future?

yes

Use this data

no

yes

Coarser (national, regional, or global)
land-use map with acceptable level ofaccuracy available?
yes
Use this datano
Use a participatory (GIS) mapping
approach or a land-use simulation
model to estimate the future landuse conditions

Use this datano
Digitize a new land-use map using asatellite image as a base map.

Figure 2.1. Process for identifying sources of current and future land-use data to use for impact assessments.

A similar decision process can be used to identify thespatial and demographic information, identifying drivers

appropriate source of future land-use data (Figure 2.1.).

of land-use change, and simulating future changes based

Future land-use maps are often produced through partic-

on the predicted changes of these drivers (e.g. population

ipatory mapping activities, e.g. by sketching future land-

growth estimates) (Iizuka et al., 2017) (Figure 2.2.). A com-

use changes on paper or digitizing them directly using

parison of current and future land-use maps can be used

GIS software (Endo et al., 2017). Alternatively, they can be

to calculate the change in area of each land-use class, andgenerated by computer simulation modeling by overlay-

visualize their spatial distribution (Figure 2.3.).

ing historical maps of land-use changes with other geo-

LULC 2007

Figure 2.2. Process for mapping future land-use/land cover(LULC) changes using a Markov Chain computer simulation

LULC 2010

LULC 2015

model. Souce: Iizuka et al, 2017).
Transition Evidence

Validation

Transition Sub-Model

Modeled 2015

Markov Chain

Modeled 2030

Driver Variables

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis

Figure 2.2. Process for mapping future land-use/land cover (LULC) changes usinga Markov Chain computer simulation model. Souce: Iizuka et al, 2017).

The remainder of this chapter is a tutorial for digitizing land-use polygons using a free GIS software package called
QGIS. QGIS has a relatively simple user interface, and runs on Windows, Mac, Linux, and Android operating systems.
You can downloaded the latest version of the software from https://www.qgis.org/en/site/.
16

Tutorial
This tutorial focuses on the process for preparing current and future land-use maps of a case study site, using free GIS
software. We have provided all of the data for this tutorial in the folder entitled “QGIS training”.

Step 1. Downloading and running QGISFor the sake of this tutorial, we have already downloaded QGIS and provided it to you with this training package. Let’s install it.

b Open “QGIS Desktop” using the Windows Start

menu. After QGIS opens, you will see a browser
menu on the left, and recent projects in the main
window.

Step 2. Loading GIS data of the current land-use of the sample study site
(Mindoro Island, Philippines).

a Load the “mindoro_2015.shp” file in the “Current_
LU” folder by dragging the file to the from the“Browser” menu in QGIS to the “Layers” window.

a

You will see a map of the land-use of Mindoro Island in 2015. Check the details of the added file byclicking on the “Identify features” icon in QGIS. You
can also check by right-clicking on “mindoro_2015”
in the Layers menu, and selecting “Open attributetable”. The “NAME” row shows the name of the watershed that the polygon contains, and the otherrows show the size, area, and average population
density of the watershed.

17

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis

Step 3. Inspecting the data and modifying the layer style

Step 4. Visualizing each land-use class as a different color.

a

For easier visualization, you will assign a uniquecolor to the polygons representing each landuse class. To do this, click on the “mindoro_2015”
map layer in the Layers window to highlight
this layer, and then click the Layer Styling Panel
icon. In the Layer Styling window, change

the symbol type from “Single Symbol” to “Categorized”, and specify the “AGC12” column as thecolumn containing the land-use information.
Finally, click the “Classify” icon. Now, you shouldasee each land-use class displayed as a different
color.

b Practice zooming in and out to the study area boundary using the magnifier and “pan” icons above the map window. Practice turning on/off the two map layers by checking on/off the check boxes in the Layers window,

and re-ordering the maps by dragging them up and down in the Layers window. Finally, practice changing the colorsof each land-use class by clicking the color box next to it in the “Symbol” column of the “Layer styling” window.

Step 5. Create a future land-use map based on the outputs of a participatory mapping activity.

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis

In Step 2, we loaded a GIS shapefile containing the cur-ning processes) as well as any other relevant stakehold-rent land-use. For land-use change impact assessments,

ers. This kind of activity typically involves printing out

however, we also need a map showing the potential futurea large poster-size map of the site, showing the adminis-

land-use. This could be a land-use map based on your mu-

trative boundaries, the current land-use, the major roads

nicipality’s land-use or zoning plan, which may alreadyand rivers, and other important geographic features. The

be in GIS format. If no future land-use/zoning map exists

local government staff then sketch the planned (or likely)

already, a common approach to understand the potential

future land-use changes using colored markers. To trans-

future land-use conditions of a coastal area is to conduct alate this analog data to digital GIS format, we can finallyparticipatory land-use mapping activity with relevant lo-

digitize it using GIS software.

cal government staff (i.e. those involved in land-use plan-18

5.1. Creating a current land-use map to use as a basis for participatory mapping activity
Let’s create a very basic current land-use map that could be printed out and used for a participatory mapping activity.

a

Click on the “Project” menu, then click “Layout Manager…” from the dropdown box. A Layout Manager window
will appear. Under New from Template header in this window, make sure “Empty layout” is selected and click
the “Create…” button. In the “Create print layout Title” window that appears, please enter “Mindoro” as the title, andthen click “OK”.

b A new window entitled “Mindoro” will appear. [If you close this window, you can open it again by clicking again on

the “Project” menu, and then clicking “Layouts”, and “Mindoro”.] In the next steps, you will create the current landuse map layout for San Cristobal watershed using the tools in this window.

To add a map to the layout, click on the “Add Item” menu, and click “Add Map” in the dropdown box. A crosshairs
will appear for your mouse pointer, and you can click and drag a rectangle that will display the GIS layers in thislayout. You can move the map or resize it by dragging or stretching the rectangle.

19

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysiscb Add a map legend by clicking on the “Add item” menu and clicking “Add legend” in the dropdown box. You candraw a rectangle to indicate where you want the legend to go. Usually, map legends go in one of the corners of themap layout, where they will not obstruct the GIS layers shown in the map.

e

Add a scale bar to the map by clicking on the “Add item” menu and clicking “Add Scale Bar” in the dropdown box.
You can draw a rectangle to indicate where you want the scale bar to go. Usually, scale bars also go in one of thecorners of the map layout, where they will not obstruct the GIS layers shown in the map. Your layout window will
look something like this after adding the Legend and scale bar:

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysisf

Add a title for the map. Click again on the “Add item” menu, and click “Add label” in the dropdown box. Drag a
rectangle in the top part of the layout window where the title will go. By default, the title text is “Lorem ipssum”.
Let’s change this title by right-clicking on “Lorem ipsum”, and clicking “Item properties” from the dropdown box,
and then entering a new title: “Mindoro: Current Land-use”. You can make the text larger by clicking on the “Font”
menu, and selecting a larger font size (try size 36 font).

g

Save the layout by clicking the “Layout” menu, and clicking “Save project”. You can also click the disk icon below
the Layout menu to save. Save the file to the “QGIS_outputs” folder.

h Finally, save the layout as a .pdf file by clicking the “Layout” menu, and clicking “Export to pdf” in the dropdown
box. Name the file “Mindoro 2015 Land-use” and save it in the “QGIS_outputs” folder.

Now you have completed the process of creating an existing land-use map of a coastal study site, which can be printed
out and used to conduct a participatory mapping activity! The actual participatory mapping can be done by providing
markers of different colors to the participants, and asking them to draw out their planned future land-use changes indifferent colors. For example, they might digitize new planned urban developments in red, new parks or other green
spaces in green, and new agricultural areas in yellow. Once this is completed, this analog data will need to be digitized
into a new GIS layer.
20

Step 5.2. Digitizing the future land-use map created through a participatory mapping activity.
In the next steps, we will practice the digitizing process in QGIS so that you can digitize a future (or current) landuse map using GIS software.

aOpen the Layer menu, click “Create Layer”, then click “New Shapefile Layer”.

b Set the file and file path by clicking the […] icon. Please name the file “Future_LU.shp”, and place it in the “QGIS_
outputs” folder.

cChange the geometry type from “Point” to “Polygon”.

d For additional dimensions, specify “None”
Set the coordinate system and map projection to match the other GIS datasets (WGS 1984, UTM Zone 51N).

f

Add a New Field to the file, called “AGC12”. This field will contain the future land-use class information of eachpolygon that you will digitize. Set the Type to Text data, and the Length to 50. Click the “Add to Fields List” icon.

For now, this is just an empty shapefile. As the next step, we need to digitize polygons representing the future land-use of the watershed.
21

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysisegMake sure everything matches the screenshot below. Then click “OK”

h Highlight the “Future_LU” layer in the Layers window, and click the Toggle Editing icon .

i

Now zoom to a location having a current land-use of “Annual Crop”. It is light purple in the map we generated,but may appear differently on your screen. To check, you can use the “Identify Features” tool from Step 3a. As
one example, you can zoom into the area shown in the screenshot below:

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysisjAfter zooming in, try digitizing a new polygon representing the “Built-up” land-use class. Click the Add Polygon Feature icon

. Left click in the map display at a location where you’d like to start digitizing a polygon

feature, then keep left clicking to add vertices (corners) of the polygon. When you’ve got the shape you want,right click to close the polygon. For this exercise, just try adding 5-6 vertices for the polygon, like the example
shown below. (If you aren’t happy with the polygon you made, and want to redo it, click the Undo icon
a unique ID number (1) and a land-use class (Built-up).

Digitize a polygon ofa new“Built-up”areaaround here.

22). Addk Turn on “Snapping” to that the digitized polygons snap to one another, to allow
for easier mapping. Click the “Project” menu, then “Snapping Options”.

lClick the “Enable Snapping” icon . Choose “Vertex and Segment”. This will ensure that polygons you digitize will snap to the existing polygons, and help avoid
topological errors like overlapping polygons or gaps between polygons.

m Digitize another polygon with 4 vertices, this time of an “Open Forest” land-use feature. Digitize it adjacent to
the “Built-up” polygon you digitized earlier to practice snapping, and assign it an ID of 2.

n Try digitizing a few more polygons of the other types of land-use features. Assign a different color to eachland-use class in this new layer. Go back to Step 4(b) if you need to refresh your memory of how to do this.

[Note: In a real situation, you would need to digitize polygons covering your study area of interest, so it may
take some time to complete.]

Finally, save your edits by clicking on the “Save Layer Edits” icon!!!!

Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics of displaying and digitizing land-use data in QGIS!
For a longer and more general QGIS tutorial, please also check the QGIS website:
https://docs.qgis.org/3.4/en/docs/training_manual/create_vector_data/create_new_vector.html.

References
Endo, I., Magcale-Macandog, D. B., Kojima, S., Johnson, B. A., Bragais, M. A., Macandog, P. B. M., & Scheyvens, H. (2017). Participatory land-use approach for integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into basin-scale local planning. Sustainable
cities and society, 35, 47-56.
Iizuka, K., Johnson, B. A., Onishi, A., Magcale-Macandog, D. B., Endo, I., & Bragais, M. (2017). Modeling future urban sprawl andlandscape change in the Laguna de Bay Area, Philippines. Land, 6(2), 26.

23

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysisoChapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

Overview of this chapter
Due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, theEarth’s climate is changing at the global scale. The main change is increased global
temperatures, while the magnitude of the temperature changes varies from location to location. Climate change is affecting the water cycle as well, leading to more
rainfall in some regions and less in others, and changing the seasonal rainfall patterns in many places (causing more/less drought or flooding, depending on the geographic region). To better understand local climate changes, projections from global
climate models (i.e. general circulation models; GCMs) or regional climate models
Pankaj Kumar
Brian A. Johnson(RCMs) are typically downscaled using statistical approaches, and then bias-corrected using local climate observation data. These downscaled and bias-correctedclimate projections can be extremely useful for estimating the local impacts of climate change and identifying appropriate adaptation actions.

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

After completing the chapter, you will beable to:This chapter will introduce you to GCMs and downscaling, and show you how to access downscaled climate data.
Understand what GCMs are and how they are generated;
Download GCM data (future precipitation and temperature climate variables); andVisualize the climate change projection using QGIS software.

24

Main concepts
Climate change and its impacts
Climate change is caused by a variety of natural and

The hydrosphere is possibly the most negatively affected

anthropogenic factors. Some natural factors affecting

component of the Earth system. Considering freshwaterclimate include variations in solar radiation and theas a finite resource, many scientific studies have focusedoccurrence of volcanic eruptions. Human activities likeon evaluating the effects of climate change on precipita-

burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, however, aretion patterns and hydrologic regimes (Dore 2005, Kleinn etbelieved to be the main drivers of climate change (due toal. 2005, Abbs et al. 2007). These studies and other similar

increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) inones have highlighted the impacts of climate change on

the atmosphere).

regional precipitation trends, which include increased
flooding and drought as well as deteriorating water qual-

Global climate change is disrupting the ways that people

ity in many regions. Developing nations, many of whichlive and interact with their environment. Some of the im-have inadequate infrastructure and/or water governancepacts of climate change include the alteration of natural

systems, are likely to be most significantly affected. Asia,

ecosystems, interruption of food production and water

having the highest gap between freshwater supply andsupply, damage to infrastructure, and human morbidity

demand, is expected to bear the brunt of these global

and mortality (e.g. from increased heat stroke, drought, orchanges.

climate-induced disasters) (IPCC, 2014). The consequencesof climate change are already becoming evident in termsof the changes in the amount, intensity and frequency of
precipitation, and temperature in many parts of the world.

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

25

Climate change projections
It is difficult to precisely predict the future climate at atemperature. These climate projections are derived from

specific location (e.g. city or town) due to uncertainties

general circulation models (GCMs), also called global cli-from climate models and various other sources. Under-

mate models. A GCM is a mathematical model of the gen-standing of the general trend of climate change and vari-eral circulation of the planet’s atmosphere or oceans, andability, however, is important for impact assessment andis based on mathematical equations that represent theclimate change adaptation. Climate projections are thephysical processes described in figure 3.1. GCMs simulate

main tools used to understand the expected impacts of

the responses of changes in greenhouse gas concentra-

climate change on different sectors of a country. Climate

tions, and provide estimates of climate variables in the

projections consist of a synthetic time-series of climate

future (Mishra and Herath, 2011).

variables, such as daily or monthly precipitation and

Figure 3.1. Climate model data (adopted from Aparicio and Zucker, 2015)

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

The GCM outputs are based on coarse resolution infor-

GCMs (and the downscaled data from them) are generat-mation (e.g. orography and elevation) for the generation

ed based on estimated future greenhouse gas emissions,of climatic variables, and are typically of a coarse spatialwhich are calculated for different socioeconomic sce-

resolution (hundreds of km pixel size). However, forcing

narios. The most widely-used of these socioeconomic

and circulation that affect local climate generally occur

scenarios are the so-called “representative concentration

at much finer scale than that of GCM. Therefore, direct use

pathways” (RCPs), including RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, andof GCM outputs is not suitable for local climate change

RCP 8.5 (Moss et al. 2010). The RCPs are labeled according

impact assessments, and hence spatial downscaling isto the approximate global radiative-forcing level at 2100,

required. Spatial downscaling is the process of derivingwith RCP 2.6 estimating the lowest amount of climate

finer resolution (i.e. local) of climate data from the coarsechange by the year 2100, and RCP 8.5 estimating the high-

GCM output for the climate change impact studies at local

est amount of climate change by 2100.

level. There are various downscaling techniques to convert the GCM outputs into locally applicable climate data.
Although we will not discuss them in detail here, more
information on downscaling methods can be found in
Mishra and Herath (2011).

26

Tutorial
Step 1. Downloading GCM data
Although GCM data can be downloaded from various sources, the most common one is from IPCC, as shown below.

Figure 3.2. GCM data source from IPCC website

Please follow following steps to download GCM data from this site:a

Go to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data distribution site: https://www.ipcc-data.org/

b Click the tab “guidance” to get different guidelines regarding how to select scenarios, fact sheet and scenario processes for IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). This site has both past climatological data as well as projected data.

c

Now click the tab discover, view and download data. This page has all the observed climate data, IPCC Assessment
Report 5 (AR5) observed climate change impacts. Most importantly, this page has the global climate model outputs,
as shown below.

27

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

d Click “Global Climate Model Output” link, and following page will openeClick “Results from GCM-Runs for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) based on the IPCC-RCP scenarios”, and following page will open.
All the outputs shown here are from The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which relies heavily on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), a large climate modelling process coordinated by the World
Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The format for GCM output from all the RCP is in NetCDF/CF. NetCDF files
can be opened and visualized in QGIS. For more details, please click the link output format NetCDF/CF (an overview is shown in the screenshot below http://cfconventions.org/ ).

f

To get data for a particular location, you need to click on following link:g

Click “availability” on the left hand side menu and following page will open. Click the “PCMDI” link to go to thehttps://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/data-portal.html., and the page below will open:

webpage for downloading the climate model data.

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysishBefore downloading the data, first you need to create account by clicking “Create Account” in top right corner.

28

i

After clicking the link, add the requested information (email address, user name, password, First/Last name,etc.) and you will receive an “OpenID Login”. After inputting this OpenID and clicking the Login button, you
can enter your user name and password.

jAfter logging in, click on the CMIP5 link as shown below.

k The webpage below will open. Now you can choose which climate model and climate variables to download
data for. Please click the + icon next to “Project” to expand the list of projects, and check on the box next to“CMIP5”. Next, click the + icon next to “Experiment” and check the box for “rcp85”. Finally, click the + icon
next to “Variable Long Name” and check on the boxes next to “Air Temperature” and “Precipitation”. Once all ofthese model components are selected, click the “Search” box and the available models will be displayed. The
first model displayed is MIROC-ESM-CHEM, generated by the University of Tokyo, the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

Click on “List Files” for the first model in the list (“MIROC-ESM-CHEM”)… To download the precipitation climate data (“Precipitation flux”), click the “HTTP Download” link for the variable number 25, “pr_Amon_MRROC....”. To download the Precipitation data, click the “HTTP Download” link for the variable “prc_Amon…”

29

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysislStep 2. Opening the climate model data in QGIS
Although GCM data can be downloaded from various sources, the mostcommon one is from IPCC, as shown below.

aOpen QGIS software (See Chapter 2 if you don’t remember how to do this!).

b Click on the “Layer” menu and then click “Add Raster Layer”.
cSelect the NetCDF file “pr_Anon….” and click “Open”.

d Then click “Add”. Then choose the desired coordinate reference system (“WGS 1984”) and click “OK” to add the
NetCDF layer in QGIS.

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysise

To understand this layer, click on it in the “Layers” menu. By default, it shows as a “Multiband color” image, withmodel results for 3 years shown as a color map.

30

fChange this to “Singleband gray” to visualize the climate model results for a single month. As you can see, thedates are indicated by the number of days since 01/01/1850 (January 01, 1850). Please select Band 1140: time =91660.5(days since 1850-1-1), this corresponds to the month of December in the year 2100.

g

As you can see, the resulting map shows the spatial distribution of precipitation for the month of December in theyear 2100. To convert these precipitation flux measurements (in units of kg/m2/s) to average millimeters of precipitation per day, these values would need to be multiplied by 86,400. To convert to monthly precipitation, they would
then be multiplied by the number of days in the month of interest (i.e. 31 in the case of December).

h

Now try to download and display the data for the average maximum monthly temperature variable (“tasmax”
variable)

The global climate model results shown in this Chapter were very coarse in scale (300km x 300km spatial resolution). In practice, they would need to be downscaled to a finer resolution using statistical approaches, and bias corrected. Downscaled climate data for different regions are available from various sources including the Asia-PacificClimate Change Adaptation Information Platform (AP-PLAT: https://ap-plat.nies.go.jp/). These downscaled data also
typically come in NetCDF format, so the methods presented in this tutorial can be used to visualize downscaled
data of your study site of interest. We are, however, happy to provide additional trainings for the downscaling andbias correction processes.

References
Aparicio, I.G., Zucker, A. (2015) Meteorological data for RES-E integration studies- State of the art review; EUR 27587;
10.2790/349276.

31

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis

Congratulations, you’ve learned how to download and visualize climate model data in QGIS!

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

Overview of this chapter
In this chapter, we will learn how to use the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability ModelRajarshi Dasgupta

ling tool. This tool can be used to measure and communicate the vulnerability of

Brian A. Johnson

the shoreline to coastal flooding and erosion by taking into account the local wind/
wave exposure, land elevation, and land-use/land-cover. InVEST is particularly useful for assessing the benefits of ecosystems in terms of shoreline protection, as it
can consider different scenarios, e.g. with and without the presence of coastal ecosystems. This chapter will show you how to create your own coastal vulnerability
maps, which can help to visualize the threats associated with coastal hazards andthe capacity of coastal ecosystems to partially mitigate these threats.

After completing the chapter, you will beable to:
Perform basic data collection and pre-processing the data
Estimate current and future vulnerability from wind and waves
Interpret a coastal vulnerability map for risk sensitive land-use planning32

Main concepts
Coastal areas are exposed to hazards coming from the sea

logical benefits, such as food, fodder, recreation etc. Many(e.g. typhoons, tsunami, sea-level rise) as well as land (e.g.

researchers also regard EbA as Nature-based Solution

river floods and landslides). Thus, disaster risk reduction(NbS). Nature-based solutions (NbS) broadly aim to use na-

and climate change adaptation measures are particularly

ture in tackling challenges of the climate change, natural

critical in coastal areas. Because coastal areas are also of-disaster and a host of other issues such as food security,

ten biodiversity hotspots, measures which can effectively

and water resource management. For example, studies re-utilize natural ecosystems to mitigate hazards are highly

vealed that mangroves and other coastal ecosystems candesirable.

provide great resilience to natural hazards, therefore, restoration and conservation of mangroves are often linked

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is an approach thatwith coastal development polices. At the same time, resto-

uses natural ecosystem services as part of a holistic cli-

ration of mangroves can control erosion of muddy coasts,

mate change adaptation strategy (Vignola et al., 2009).

hence, can be considered as EbA measure to combat sea

Various types of measures can broadly be considered aslevel rise. In the remainder of this Chapter, we will intro-

EbA measures, including the conserving/restoring/sus-

duce a model that can be used to evaluate the benefits of

tainable management of ecosystems, if they contributenatural ecosystems in reducing coastal vulnerability toto increasing the resilience of local communities to cli-hazards (focusing specfically on storm surge and coastal

mate-related hazards. EbA also ensures a variety of eco-

erosion hazards).

InVEST stands for integrated valuation of ecosystem

the map inputs and view the modelling results. Therefore,

services and tradeoffs. This is a suite of spatially-explic-

to operate InVEST, a basic understanding of GIS software

it ecosystem services modeling tools developed by theis necessary. You will use some of what you learned infamous Natural Capital Project of Stanford University.

Chapter 2 to view the inputs/outputs of InVEST.

InVEST is a set of 28 biophysical models (many others areunder development), which run independently, or as script

The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model calculates antools in the QGIS/ ArcGIS/ ArcTool Box environment. All of

exposure index rank in a five point scale for each point

these models are spatially explicit, and thus, use maps asalong a coastline. The index represents the relative ex-

input and generate maps as output. It feeds on spatial in-posure originating from coastal erosion and inundation

formation, while the scope of non-spatial information thatcaused by storm surges. The index takes account of sev-

can be incorporated but more restricted. All of the calcu-

en bio-geophysical variables, namely, relief, ecologicallations in InVEST are done at the pixel scale (e.g. a 30 me-

characteristics across the region, the rate of sea-level rise,

ter x 30 meter grid cell for many commonly used land-use

the local bathymetry, topography, the relative wind, pop-maps). InVEST model is generally requires limited data,ulation density and wave forcing associated with storms

and therefore applicable even in data-deficit regions. The(see Figure 4.1. for a description of how to set and interpret

spatial resolution of this model is also flexible, allowing

the exposure values). Values from 1-5 are set for each ofusers to operate at any scale, ranging from local, regional,

these seven variables, and the final result final output ofto even global. This gives it an advantage over convention-

the model is a geospatial dataset showing points spaced

al ecosystem service modelling tools, which are generally

at a user-defined interval (e.g. every 100m along the coast),

bounded by scales and require a lot of primary data gener-

with the average exposure of each point location to coast-

ation. However, as there is no functionality in InVEST for

al hazards (i.e. average value of the seven input variables

manipulating or viewing the map inputs/outputs, we needat that location). These values range from 1 (very low) to 5

to use other GIS software like QGIS or ArcGIS to prepare(very high) coastal exposure.

33

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

InVEST ModelLevel of exposureRank

1 (very low)

2 (low)

3 (moderate)

4 (high)

5 (very high)Geomorphology

Rocky; high cliffs; fjord;ﬁard; seawalls

Medium cliff; indented
coast; bulkheads andsmall seawalls

Low cliff; glacial drift;
alluvial plain;
revetments; rip-rap
walls

Cobble beach; estuary;
lagoon; bluff

Barrier beach; sandbeach; mud ﬂat; delta

Relief81-100 Percentile

61- 80 Percentile

41 - 60 Percentile

21 - 40 Percentile

0 - 20 Percentile

Natural Habitats

Coral reef; mangrove;
coastal forest

High dune; marsh

Low dune

Seagrass; kelp

No habitat present

Sea Level Change

0 - 20 Percentile

21 - 40 Percentile

41 - 60 Percentile

61 - 80 Percentile

81 - 100 Percentile

Wave Exposure0 - 20 Percentile

21 - 40 Percentile

41 - 60 Percentile

61 - 80 Percentile

81 - 100 Percentile

Surge Potential

0 - 20 Percentile

21 - 40 Percentile

41 - 60 Percentile

61 - 80 Percentile

81 - 100 Percentile

Figure 4.1. List of Bio-geophysical variables and exposure ranking system in InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Index.
Adapted from Table 4.1 from http://releases.naturalcapitalproject.org/invest-userguide/latest/coastal_vulnerability.html.

Tutorial
Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

In the following tutorial, you will learn how to run the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Index model. As with other InVEST
components, data preparation is the primary task, and any GIS software can be used for data preparation. The following
examples are created using QGIS. For the simulation, we will use a dataset for Mindoro island, Philippines. As mentioned
above, CVI requires the following datasets, namely the (1) Area of Interest (shapefile), (2) Landmass (shapefile), (3) WaveWatchIII vector data (grid points as well as wave and wind variables that represent storm conditions at that location), (4) Maximum Fetch Distance, (5) Bathymetry in raster format, (6) Digital Elevation Model (raster), (7) Elevation averaging radius, (8)Continental Shelf Contour, (9) Habitats Table, (10) Population density (optional), and (11) Sea Level rise (Optional).

Step 1: Open QGIS and create/display the AOI file
For InVEST CVI Modelling, the Area of Interest (AOI) file roughly delineates the outer boundary of the study site. The AOI
file should be a polygon vector file (i.e. .shp file) having a ‘projected’ coordinate system, which must be displayed in theunits of meters. Generally, the spatial extent covered by the AOI file should be made larger than the actual study area ofinterest (to make sure no parts of the study area are excluded). Hence, when you digitize an AOI polygon file, make sure allparts of the land area are covered!

aOpen QGIS and add the “mindoro_boundary.shp” file, located in
the “MINDORO_SIMULATION” folder.

b Digitize a polygon slightly larger than the extent of the “mindoro_boundary.shp” map, similarly to the figure shown here. Make sure
you are using the same projected coordinates as the “mindoro_boundary.shp” map (i.e. UTM Zone 51N). If you forgot how to digitize polylgons in QGIS, refer back to Chapter 2 of this guidebook.
(Alternatively, you can use the file that we have already prepared,
called “AOI.shp”.
b34

Step 2: Create a Landmass shape file in QGISThe Landmass polygon input provides the model with a map of all landmasses in the region of interest. A global
land mass polygon shape file is provided as default in InVEST , but you may prefer to create one in QGIS. We havealready extracted the polygon boundary for Mindoro Island for the sake of this tutorial.

a

Add the “landmass_polygon_Mindoro.shp” file in QGIS to visualize it

Step 3: Display the WaveWatchIII vector file in QGISThis vector contains a grid of points as well as wave and wind variables that represent storm conditions at thatlocation. These variables are used to compute the Wind and Wave Exposure ranking of each shoreline segment. InVEST model supplies nearly the entire ocean coverage for this type of data.

aPlease add the “WAVewatchIII_global.shp” file in QGIS. The InVEST model will automatically take the data from thenearest points to the study area, so we do not need to crop and edit this data.

This raster input is used to find average water depths required for wave height and period calculations. Please notethat bathymetry values should be negative (in meters below sea-level). The raster should cover the entire offshore
area extending beyond the AOI by at least the distance of the Maximum Fetch Distance. All nodata and positive
values are masked before calculating the average depth along a fetch ray. So it is okay if this raster also includes
onshore elevation data.

a

Add the “Bathymetry_mindoro.tif” file in QGIS. This file contains bathymetry for almost the entire extent of thePhilippines. This is the official data downloaded from the geological survey of the country.

35

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

Step 4: Display and Edit the local Bathymetry data

Step 5: Display and Edit the Digital Elevation Model
A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is used to compute the Relief ranking of each shoreline segment. It should provide
elevation information covering the entire land polygon and some areas extending beyond the AOI.

a

Add the file entitled Mindoro_DEM.tif in QGIS. Note that the file extends way beyond the Minodoro Island.

Step 6: Display Continental Shelf Contour
This is a polyline input that represents the location of the continental margin or other locally-important bathyme-

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

try contour. It must be within 1500 km of the coastline in the area of interest.

aUsing QGIS, open the file called continental_shelf_polyline_global.shp.

Step 7: Display the Habitat Maps and Tables
In this step, we will load habitat maps of the study site. We will load polygon shapefiles showing mangroves, swamp
forests, and inland forests (open and closed forests), all of which have definite roles in protecting the coast fromwind and waves. These maps can be easily prepared if you have a detailed land use map of the study area. For thesake of this tutorial, we have already prepared them.

a Load the Mangroves.shp, Swampt.shp, Openforests.shp, and Closedforest.shp files, located inside the “MINDORO_SIMULATION\Mindoro_Habitat” folder.

36

bAssign a different color for each type of habitat (e.g. mangroves as purple, open forests as green, closed forests aspink, and swamps as light green, as in the map below).

The next task is to instruct the InVEST model how to read this shapefile. For this, we need to create a table to instruct the model on habitat layer inputs and parameters.

cCreate a new table in MS Excel (or other spreadsheet software). The table must have the headers “id”, “path”, “rank”,
spaces allowed), path is the location and filename of the habitat GIS layer, rank is an exposure value ranging from
1 to 5 (see Table 4.1. for a description of the values for each habitat type), and protection distance (m) is the distancein meters beyond which this habitat will provide no protection to the coastline.

d Assign the rank and protection distance values as shown in the image below. Once done, please save the file as
Natural_Habitat.csv. Please make sure to save it as .csv file (not an .xls file!).

37

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software“protection distance (m)” in the top row, as shown below. It should contain four columns, i.e. id is a text string (noStep 8: Geomorphology /Population (Optional modules)
You can also add the regional geomorphology and population information, however, the model can run without theseinformation. For the time being, we will skip these two modules.

Step 9: Open InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model
Once you are done with data preparation, we will now start the modellinga

Download and install InVEST from the following website: https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest. Alternatively, you can find the installation file (InVEST_3.9.0_x64_Setup.exe) inside the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder. Run through the installation process.

b

Go to the start menu and open InVEST. Please note once you click InVEST, there would be display of all the available models. Please click on the coastal vulnerability model.

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST softwareb

Step 10: Model interface and data input
Once the model interface is displayed, please assign the path to the different data set you prepared in the last steps.
For your convenience, the folder titled MINDORO_SIMULATION contains all the required files to run the simulation.
Please follow the below mentioned instructionsa

For Workspace, create a folder by the name of coastal_vilnerability_workspace under my documents where all
your intermediate and results files will be stored. It is recommended to create a new directory for each run of themodel. In case you do not define, the model will arbitrarily create one folder under my documents.

38

b

For Area of Interest (vector), select the AOI.shp file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder.

c

Set the model resolution (meters) parameter to 1000. This value determines the spacing between shore points andexpressed in the units of meters. A larger value will yield fewer shore points but a faster computation time. It is
recommended to keep it to 1000 unless the extent of study area is not excessively small. You may go for higher resolution in that case. Please note for higher resolution, the model will run for longer time, sometimes in hours.

d For Landmass, select the landmass_polygon_Mindoro.shp from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder.

e

For maximum fetch distance, use the default value of 10000. A numeric value in meters should be used for this,which will determine the degree to which shore points are exposed to oceanic waves. A shore point is only exposed to oceanic wave energy if, in some direction around the point, no landmass is intersected when casting a
ray the length of this max fetch distance.

For Bathymetry, please add the bathymetry_mindoro.tif file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder.

g For Digital Elevation Model, add the dem_utm_Clip.tif file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder.

h For Elevation averaging radius, set it as the default value of 5000. This is the radius in meters around each shore
point within which to compute the average elevation.

i

For Continental Shelf Contour, add the continental_shelf_polyline_global.shp file from the MINDORO_SIMULA-j

For Habitats Table, please add the habitat table Natural_habitats.csv from the MINDORO_SIMULATION/Mindoro_

TION folder.

Habitat folder.

39

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST softwarefk For this tutorial, we will not use the optional geomorphology, population, and sea-level rise datasets. If you havethis data for your own study site, please use it.

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST softwarelPlease check whether all the required fields are marked with Green checks, as shown above. If yes, Hit Run. If not,please recheck the data. Depending on the resolution of the model, it will take some time to run the entire simulation. Once complete, you will get a confirmation window like the following.

40

Step 10: Open the workspace and display the files
In the output folder, you will get mainly two files. (1) A point vector file by the name of coastal_exposure.gpkg (.gpkg
file is a geodatabase which contain the exposure shape file) (2) An excel file containing the detailed attribute tableof coastal_exposure.gpkg provided in csv format for convenience. You may further wish to modify or add to the columns of this table in case you wish to make customized scenarios. In order to display the file, please select the exposure with habitat and no habitat column to understand the contribution of coastal ecosystem services. Your final
product should look something like this.

a

Add the coastal_exposure file in QGIS, and modify the color scheme to range from low vulnerability (blue) to highvulnerability (red), as shown in the map legends below. If you forgot how to change the color scheme of the layer in
QGIS, refer back to Chapter 2.

b

Add a map title, legend, scale bar and north arrow for two maps (one with coastal habitats conserved, one without
coastal habitats). Again, check Chapter 2 if you forgot how to do this. Now, your maps are complete!

You can learn more from the online training manual
http://releases.naturalcapitalproject.org/invest-userguide/latest/index.html

References
Vignola, R., Locatelli, B., Martinez, C., and Imbach, P. (2009). Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: what role for policy-makers, society and scientists?. Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 14(8), 691-696.

41

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software

Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics of Coastal Vulnerability Modelling using InVEST

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact
assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM)

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Overview of this chapter
Brian A. Johnson

Climate change is already resulting in global sea-level rise, and is expected to cause
further rises in sea level in the future as the climate continues to warm. The rates
and impacts of sea-level rise vary from location to location, being affected by manyfactors including local sea-level rise rates, land subsidence/uplift rates, and soil
accretion/erosion rates in coastal areas. The latter can be significantly affected bychanges in land-use or land management practices. This chapter gives an overview
of the impacts of sea-level rise, and demonstrates how to perform sea-level rise
analysis using the free SLAMM (Sea level affecting marshes model) software. In thechapter, you will learn how to run SLAMM using different land-use and sea-level
rise scenarios, and visualize the outputs of the modeling.

After completing the chapter, you will beable to:Understand the basics of how climate change and land-use change affect local sea-level
rise impacts;
Perform sea-level rise modeling using SLAMM software;
Visualize the impacts of sea-level rise under different climate and land-use scenarios.

42

Main concepts
According to climate change projections of the Intergov-

Asia and Oceania. Various datasets containing historicalernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global

sea-level rise rates exist, including those derived from sat-mean sea level is expected to rise by 0.29-1.1 meters by theellite measurements (https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/end of the century, compared to the 2005 level (IPCC, 2019).

AVISO_L4_DYN_TOPO_1DEG_1MO), and tide gauges (e.g.

The average global sea-level rise in recent years is esti-

Global Sea Level Observing System: https://www.psmsl.

mated to be around 2.8-3.2mm/year (Church and White,org/gloss/). Tide gauge measurements have the benefit of2009). Local sea-level rise rates can vary significantly

also accounting for land subsidence/uplift (another im-from the global average, as can be seen in the map of his-

portant factor affecting local sea-level rise impacts), buttorical sea-level changes in Figure 5.1. As seen in Figure

their coverage is more limited (both geographically and5.1., sea-level rise rates tend to be quite high in Southeast

temporally) than that of satellite measurements.

Sea-level rise impacts can be mitigated to some degree

Mangroves are a particularly important coastal ecosys-

using seawalls and other hard barriers. However, thesetem, as they help to build-up the soil along the coastline,

hard infrastructure measures are costly to build andwhich raises the land elevation and thus reduces the im-maintain, and may fail in extreme cases (e.g. during ty-

pacts of sea-level rise and other coastal hazards (Figure

phoons with high storm surge, or tsunami). On the other5.2.). Average rates of soil accretion in mangrove ecosys-

hand, nature-based solutions (NbS), which were also dis-

tems are estimated to be 5.8mm/year (Alongi et al., 2018),

cussed in Chapter 4, can also help mitigate sea-level rise

which is higher than the global average sea-level rise

impacts aside from providing other benefits like reducing

rate. Mangrove ecosystems also mitigate a major cause ofcoastal erosion, mitigating storm surge, providing habitat,sea-level rise - greenhouse gas emissions – by sequester-food, and fiber. Thus, NbS, as well as other “soft” measures

ing an average of 171 gC/m2 (~1.9 tC/ha) annually (Alongi

like zoning enhancement (e.g. to ensure zero or minimal

et al., 2018). Other types of coastal wetland ecosystems

development in extremely hazard-prone areas) should bealso help mitigate sea-level rise to varying degrees, but es-

important components of coastal climate change adapta-

timates of their soil accretion rates tend to be lower thantion strategies.

those of mangrove ecosystems (Linhoss et al., 2014).

43

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Figure 5.1. Spatial variability of sea level changes. Source: FAQ13.1 Figure 1, from Church et al. (2013).

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Figure 5.2. Functions of mangrove ecosystems in coastal protection. Source:
http://www.nature.org/media/oceansandcoasts/mangroves-for-coastal-defence.pdf

Clearly, coastal areas benefit from protecting and restor-

user-defined future sea-level rise scenarios, and outputs

ing these ecosystems, but the benefits may be difficult tomaps of future land-use/land cover conditions consider-quantify without the use of computer simulation mod-ing sea-level rise impacts (e.g. conversion of undeveloped

eling. In the remainder of this chapter, we focus on how

or developed dry land to wetlands (in the case of frequentsea-level rise impact assessment can be modeled quan-

inundation) or even open water (in the case of permanenttitatively using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Modelurban inundation). Within the model, sea-level rise is off-

(SLAMM), a free software. The first version of SLAMM was

set by sedimentation and accretion of the land in coastal

developed in the mid 1980’s with funding from the Envi-ecosystems, and the accretion and erosion rates of differ-ronmental Protection Agency of the US (Park et al., 1986).

ent coastal ecosystems can be set for the site of analysis

Since then, it has undergone many improvements, and(e.g. according to field surveys or estimates from existinghas been applied in many different sites globally to esti-

literature).

mate sea-level rise impacts. SLAMM can consider various

Tutorial
This tutorial focuses on sea-level rise modeling using the free SLAMM software. We have provided all of the data for thistutorial in the folder entitled “SLAMM_training”.

Step 1. Installing SLAMM software
The latest version of SLAMM can be downloaded from GitHub: https://github.com/WarrenPinnacle/SLAMM6.7. We havealready downloaded the most recent version, SLAMM 6.7, and it is stored in the folder entitled “SLAMM6.7-master”. Pleasenavigate to this folder, and then the “INSTALL\Release\Single” subfolder, where you can find the file “” double-click the file
“SLAMM6.7_64-bit.exe”. Double-click this file and follow the installation instructions to install SLAMM.

44

Step 2. Open SLAMM
For the sake of this tutorial, we have already downloaded QGIS and provided it to you with this training package. Let’s
install it.

aOpen SLAMM from the Windows start menu.

b The main menu of SLAMM should appear.

Click “New Simulation” to start configuring the model. (A dialog box might appear asking if you want to use California Categories instead of classic SLAMM Categories; if this appears, click “No”). A new menu will appear. Please
type the SLAMM Simulation name and Description as shown below.

d Click “Save As” to save the new model in the “SLAMM_training\SLAMM_training_outputs” folder. Please name thefile “Mindoro”.

45

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)cStep 3. File setup in SLAMMa Click the “File Setup” button to set the input data for SLAMM.
SLAMM requires, at minimum a digital elevation model, a land-use map, and a slope map. Set these files,
which are found in the “SLAMM_inputs” folder, as the following:
DEM File (elevation): “dem_utm.txt”
SLAMM Categories (NWI): “landuse_openwater.txt” [This is the land-use map]
SLOPE File: “slope_utm2.txt”

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)b

Set the Base Output File Name. Name the file as “mindoro”, and save it to the “SLAMM_training_outputs” folder. Allc

Click “Save simulation” to save these input files. Then click “OK” to exit the File Setup menu.

of the model’s outputs will be saved in this designated folder, and will have file names starting with mindoro.

46

Step 4. Visualize the input files using QGISa

These files that you have input in Step 3 are in ASCII (.txt) format, i.e. text files. Try double-clicking the “dem_utm.
txt” file in the Windows Explorer to open it. You will see a text file with numbers (elevation values, and nodata values) and locational information (number of columns and rows of the DEM, the coordinates for the lower left cornerof the DEM, and the cell size of the DEM). This text file also has a corresponding .tif file with the same name, which
can be opened using QGIS. The other input files (landuse_openwater, slope_utm2) also have corresponding .tif
files.

Please open all three of the .tif files in the “SLAMM_inputs” folder using QGIS. If you forgot how to open files inc

Check on the “dem_utm” map layer to visualize it. This is the DEM file, with each grid cell having a elevation valuedCheck on the “slope_utm” map layer to visualize it. This is a slope map generated from the DEM file, with each grid

QGIS, refer back to Chapter 2 for instructions!

representing meters above a vertical datum called NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum 1988).

cell having a value indicating the percent slope at that location (0-90 degrees).

47

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)be

Check on the “landuse_openwater_utm” file to visualize it. This is a land-use map, with each grid cell having a numerical value corresponding to a NWI (national wetlands inventory) land-use class. If this map looks familiar, it’s
because it was generated from the “mindoro_2015” land-use map that we used in Chapter 2, with the original landuse classes converted to corresponding NWI classes as shown in the Table below. (Note: Descriptions for all of the
SLAMM classes will be shown later in the Chapter).

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

f

Original land-use class(es)Corresponding NWI class

SLAMM
code

Built-up

Developed Dry Land1

Annual Crop, Perennial Crop, Brush/Shrubs,
Closed Forest, Open Forest, Grassland, Open/Barren

Undeveloped Dry Land

2Marshland/Swamp

Regularly Flooded Marsh (Saltmarsh)

8

Mangrove Forest

Mangrove

9

Inland Water, FishpondInland Open Water

15

Ocean

Open Ocean

19

Try changing the colors of the map to match as the image below. If you forgot how, refer back to Chapter 2 (hint: try
double-clicking the layer and changing the symbology to “Paleted/Unique Colors)”. Also try zooming in to the East
side of the island to see the different land-use/land-cover types present.

Step 5. Setting the site parameters.
Now let’s set the site parameters for the SLAMM model. As the name suggests, site parameters may be location-specific, so should ideally be identified based on local information/statistics or field surveys.

aClick “Site Parameters” to start the setup. A list of several
different parameters will pop up in a new menu.

48

bType the parameter values in the menu, using the values indicated in the Table below. The description and rationale
for each parameter/value are provided. [If you want to run SLAMM for a different study site in the future, these values should be adjusted to match the local conditions.]
Parameter

Description/rationale

NWI Photo Date (YYYY)2015

This is the year of the land-use map used.

DEM Date (YYYY)

2000

This is the year in which the elevation data was acquired. SRTM data was used, which was acquired in February 2000:
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/eros/science/usgs-eros-archive-digital-elevation-shuttle-radar-topography-mission-srtm1-arc).

Direction Offshore [n,s,e,w]

East

We are interested in modeling the sea-level rise on the Eastern side of the island.

Historic Trend (mm/yr)

7.2

This is the local sea-level rise rate, which was calculated based on satellite measurements(https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/aviso-satellite-derived-sea-surface-height-above-geoid)

Historic Eustatic Trend (mm/yr)

1.7This is the value recommended in the SLAMM Technical Documentation, and is based on IPCC estimates of global
sea-level rise rates.

MTL-NAVD88 (m)0SRTM elevations are already relative to NAVD88 (instead of the mean tide level (MTL)), so no correction is necessary.

GT Great Diurnal Tide Range (m)1.9This is the average difference between the sea height at high and low tides

Salt Elev. (m above MTL)

1.5

This is the estimated 30-day high water mark, and land located below this level is considered to be regularly ﬂooded andthus likely to convert to wetlands.

Marsh Erosion (horz. m /yr)2

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Marsh Erosion Fetch (km)0

Optional parameter that we do not have data for.

Swamp Erosion (horz. m /yr)1

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

T.Flat Erosion (horz. m /yr)

0.5

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Reg.-Flood Marsh Accr (mm/yr)

2.3

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Irreg.-Flood Marsh Accr (mm/yr)

2.3

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)
Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Tidal-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr)

2.3

Inland-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr)

6

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Mangrove Accr (mm/yr)

5.8

Based on estimates of average accretion rate of mangroves, fromhttps://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-91698-9_3

Tidal Swamp Accr (mm/yr)

0.3

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Swamp Accretion (mm/yr)

0.3

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Beach Sed. Rate (mm/yr)

0.5

Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014)

Irreg-Flood Collapse (m)0No data available, so leave blank.

Reg-Flood Collapse (m)0No data available, so leave blank.

Use Wave Erosion Model [True,False]

FALSE

Not necessary for this training.

Inland-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr)

FALSE

Not necessary for this training.

H1 inundation (m above MTL)0

No data available, so leave blank.

H1 inundation (m above MTL)0

No data available, so leave blank.

H1 inundation (m above MTL)0

No data available, so leave blank.

H1 inundation (m above MTL)0

No data available, so leave blank.

H1 inundation (m above MTL)0

No data available, so leave blank.

Click “Export to Excel” to export the parameter settings that you defined.

d Click “Save Simulatione

Click “Ok” to close the menu

49

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

c

Value

Step 6. Set the sea-level rise parameters and simulation period
Now that the site parameters are set, we will start running the SLAMM model for different sea-level rise scenarios.

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)a

Click “Execute” in the main menu. A new menu will pop upb

Check the boxes “1 meter”, “1.5 meters”, and “2 meters”. We will simulate a 1-2 meter sea-level rise by 2100 scenario

entitled “SLAMM Execution Options”.

(compared to the base year of 1990). Other scenarios can alternatively be selected, or customized values can be input to test new scenarios.

cCheck “No Maps (Quicker Execution)”. This will speed up the running of the model.

d Check “Include Dikes”, “No-data Elevs Loaded as Blanks”, and “Use Soil Saturation”.

eUnder Optional land covers, check “Flooded Developed Dry Land”.

f

Under Protection scenarios to run, check “Don’t protect”. This means that developed land may become permanently inundated if it falls below the sea level (i.e. assuming no countermeasures will be implemented to prevent theflooding).

50

g

For the last year of the simulation, type 2100, and check “Run the model for specific years”, and type 2050, 2100.
This means the model will produce outputs for the years 2050 and 2100.

h Check “Save output for GIS” and click the “GIS File Options” box. A new window will appear. Click on “Only write
GIS file in years shown below”, and type 2050, 2100. This means that maps of the simulation results will be output
for the years 2050 and 2100.

Finally, check the “Save Inundation-Frequency Rasters”. This will output maps showing the inundation frequencyjMake sure everything matches the “SLAMM Execution Options” window shown above, and save the simulation.

at each location. Click O.K.

k Click “Execute” to run the SLAMM model! It may take quite a long time (30 minutes or longer, depending on yourcomputer) to run. Once it has finished, click OK.

51

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)i

Step 6. Visualizing the model outputs using QGISYou will see that several new files have been created in the “SLAMM_training_outputs” folder. The ASC files aremaps of the landscape in the future, considering sea-level rise impacts. However, we need to convert the ASC files
back to .tif files and add coordinate information to visualize these maps in QGIS.

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

a

Open QGIS (if it is not already open). If it is still open from earlier, you can just enlarge the same window.

b

Click on the “Raster” menu item, highlight “Conversion”, and then click on “Translate (Convert) Format”.

cUnder “Input Layer”, click the … icon and navigate to the file “mindoro_2100, 2 meter _GIS.ASC”.

d Under “Override the projection for the output file (optional)”, select “WGS 84 / UTM zone 51N”. This will give theproper coordinates to the map output.

52

e

Scroll down in the Translate (Convert Format) window until you see the “Converted” menu item. Click the … iconfNavigate to the “SLAMM_training_outputs” folder, check that the file type will be saved as “TIF files (*.tif)”, andand “Save to new file” to open a new window.

Translate (Convert Format) window. Finally, click the “Close” icon.

g

A new map layer will appear, entitled “Converted”. This is the output map for the year 2100 considering a 2m
sea-level rise scenario. The values of the map are the SLAMM codes (i.e. land-use).

53

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

name the file “mindoro2100_2m”. Click the “Save” icon (the menu will close), and then click the “Run” icon in theh You can now compare the 2015 SLAMM code map (“landuse_openwater_

UTM”) with this 2100 SLAMM code map to see the changes that occur inthe landscape due to 2m of sea-level rise (compared to 1990 base year). Trycoloring the SLAMM code values of the 2100 map to match those of the 2015
map. There are additional values in the 2100 map that were not in the 2015,
so you can choose new colors for these values. The land-use/land-covertype associated with each SLAMM code can be found in the Table below(taken from Table 3 of the SLAMM 6.7 Technical documentation.pdf). Afterassigning a representative color for each SLAMM code, change the label for
it in QGIS to the “Category Name” shown in the Table for easier interpretation. The final result will be a map like that shown below.
Table showing the land-use/land-cover information for each SLAMM code
(GIS Number). Source: SLAMM 6.7 Technical documentation

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)i

Zoom in to the upper right part of the island (shown in the red box above) to view the sea-level rise impacts in moredetail. You can see purple areas in the zoomed-in map. These are locations where urban areas (i.e. developed dryland) is expected to be permanently inundated by 2100 if 2m sea-level rise occurs. You will also be able to noticevarious changes in vegetation (e.g. changes from undeveloped dry land to transitional/regularly flooded marshes
or mangroves) by comparing the 2100 and 2015 maps in different locations.

Flooded urban area
shown in purple.

Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics of running SLAMM and visualizing the outputs!
For more information on SLAMM and its uses, please refer to the SLAMM Technical Documentation (which was installed on your PC with the software).

54References
Alongi, D. M. (2018). Mangrove forests. In Blue Carbon (pp. 23-36). Springer, Cham.
Church, J. A. and White, N. J. (2011). Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in geophysics, 32(4), 585602.
Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn,
A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)].

Park, R. A., Armentano, T.V., and Cloonan, C.L.. (1986). Predicting the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands. Pages 129-152
in J. G. Titus, ed. Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Vol. 4: Sea Level Rise. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.

55

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Linhoss, A. C., Kiker, G., Shirley, M., and Frank, K. (2015). Sea-level rise, inundation, and marsh migration: Simulating impacts ondeveloped lands and environmental systems. Journal of Coastal Research, 31(1), 36-46.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact
assessment using the Water
Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
tool

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Overview of this chapter
Groundwater quality and its evolution is closely linked to human activities (e.g.
water extraction or demand, rock-water interaction, land-use/land-management)
as well as local different hydro-climatic conditions. Thus, changes in population
hence demand, land-use, and climate all result in modification of the groundwater
quality development. Especially this will be more sensitive when we are talking
Pankaj Kumar
Brian A. Johnson

about coastal aquifers because here we have a delicate balance between sea waterfresh water. Also because of any tiny disturbances in the above mentioned factors
and drivers, this equilibrium between seawater- freshwater body get affected andsalt water plume intrude toward inland aquifers and pollute them which is also
called groundwater salinization.
This Chapter will show you how to simulate the future groundwater quality in the
coastal aquifers using the “Water Evaluation and Planning System” (WEAP) software package, which is free for users in developing countries. You will learn toconduct several different types of scenarios, to understand and model the impactsof population growth, infrastructure development, land-use change, and climatechange on water quality.

After completing the chapter, you will beable to:Use WEAP software to estimate the groundwater quality in the coastal aquifers;
Integrate future population projections, infrastructure-related information, land-use, andclimate information to develop different scenarios of the future water quality.

56

Main concepts
The hydrogeological/hydrogeochemical study at coastal

because of their dynamic coastal boundary, where tidal

aquifers to decipher the hydrological processes is con-effects cause complicated groundwater flow and contam-

sistently being hot research topic during the past few

inant transport phenomena in regions adjacent to thedecades, motivated by both scientific interest and societal

coast. Lack of regular monitoring networks for groundwater in coastal regions complicates its diligent sustainable

relevance; considering the fact that many coastal aquifers
in the world, especially shallow ones, experiencing an in-management (Kumar et al., 2013). Salt-water intrusion is

tensive salt water intrusion caused by both natural as well

the migration of saltwater into freshwater aquifers under
the influence of groundwater development. Seawateras man-induced processes (Oude Essink, 2001). Integrated
approach of geochemical analysis and hydrological mod-intrusion is the ingress of seawater into coastal aquifers,

eling proved as an efficient tool to understand interaction

which in turn affects the quality of groundwater. Due tobetween groundwater and its surrounding environment

increasing concentration of human settlements, agricul-

which contribute to its better management (Kumar et al.,tural development and economic activities, the shortage2017). Especially for coastal aquifers, transdisciplinaryof fresh groundwater for domestic, agricultural, and in-

and integrated approach is an efficient investigative tool

dustrial purposes becomes more striking particularly into understand the aquifer matrix chemistry and water–

coastal zones (Ozler 2003). Apart from human activities

rock interaction along the flow path in the aquifer to trace

mentioned above, natural processes like processes atgroundwater evolution and mechanism of salt water –coastal zone (e.g. coastal erosion, shoreline retreat, tidal

fresh water mixing. Diagram showing list of key factors

effect), sea level rise, backwater effect, seepage throughaffecting coastal aquifers, their effects and countermea-

the geological formations (presence of inland faults/frac-sure to manage this precious resource is shown in Figureture), and change in hydraulic regime (e.g. evapotrans-

6.1.

piration, precipitation, recharge amount) also leads tochange in sea water – fresh water equilibrium and favors
the ground water salinization (Kumar et al 2012).

Changes in hydrological regime

Relatively sea level rise
Land-subsidence (anthropogenic , natural)
Tectonic uplift

Coastal zone
Coastal erosion
Shoreline retreat
Tidal effectChange in natural recharge-precipitation- evapo-transpiration

Coastal Aquifers

Human activities
Groundwater extraction
Lowering GW level
Land reclamation
Mining (gas, oil, sand)River and estuaries
Backwater effect
SeepageCountermeasures

Effects
Salt water Intrusion
Decrease GW resources
Ecosystem degradation

Infiltration surface water
Increase natural recharge
Physical barrier

Figure 6.1. Drivers affecting coastal aquifer and their management options

For the sustainable management of this precious re-the capacities of the stakeholders involved in water man-source, scientific information on its future status is re-agement. For creating science-based evidence, we aimed

quired. To do that, we have various scientific tools liketo assess water quality under various scenarios of key

WEAP, SWAT, MODFLOW etc., which can be used to predictfactors including population growth, urbanization, andcontaminant transport and its fate considering different

climate change in the target cities. While building and

key drivers and pressures. These tools are useful in thatrunning numerical simulation, we had active discussion

their outputs provide science-based evidence for deci-with local counterparts to improve the models to fit to thesion-making, and the involvement of local stakeholders

real situation, and to show future situation with plannedin the process can improve the modeling results (e.g. by

mitigation measures for groundwater management inbetter accounting for the local context) as well as buildyear 2030.
57

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Coastal aquifers can be distinguished from other aquifers

Water quality
This chapter presents the Water Evaluation and Planningulation, an essential input parameter for water quality(WEAP) tool, a computer modeling tool that takes into ac-modeling. Other benefits of WEAP are that it is not data

count hydrological and water quality components to an-

intensive, and it is freely available to people in developing

alyze/simulate the current/future water quality. WEAP iscountries.

widely used as a decision support tool for integrated water

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

resources management and planning. The model allows

The WEAP model is used to simulate water budget andfor the estimation of rainfall runoff and pollutant trav-

water quality variables in target year i.e. 2030, Data of im-el from a catchment to nearby water bodies. WEAP canportant water quality indicators (major ions with particu-

support environmental master planning functionalities

lar focus on chloride) at spatio-temporal scale for ground-by accounting for wastewater generation and treatment,water was used for calibration and validation of waterand includes a catchment module for rainfall-runoff sim-

quality module of the WEAP software.

Model set-up
First, vector or raster file of administrative boundary ofgauge stations, ground water supply and finally different

the study area and river map is imported in WEAP soft-types of links (return flow, transmission flow, and runoff/ware. After tracing the river on the top of it manually, we

infiltration) were used to finalize model set-up.

create out problem domain. The whole problem domain(and its different components) is divided into several

Scenario analysis is carried out by defining a time hori-

sub-catchments, which have been further subdivided

zon for which alternative groundwater extraction and ef-

into different sub-basins, to consider influent locations

fect of different management options are explored, whichof river and its major tributaries being represented by

is 2030 in this case. The business as usual condition isrespective WEAP nodes. Other major considerations are

represented by a reference scenario with selection of all

many demand sites (number usually depend on lower ad-

the existing elements as currently active. Future scenario

ministrative unit of study area by which data is available),for with no mitigation measures includes effect of climate

groundwater as a water supply source to the demand sites

change, land use land cover changes and populationto accurately represent the current situation of the study

growth. Under scenario with mitigation measures, rain-

area. Here, demand sites denote domestic (population) de-water harvesting is considered which release the pressure

fined with their attributes explaining water consumption

on groundwater extraction. The baseline year under theand wastewater discharge in concerned river. Here aver-current reference scenario for all study areas also varies

age per day per capita groundwater extraction is 70 liter

based on the past data availabilities.

per day per capita. Apart of this, we do need to plot river58

Model performance evaluation
Before doing future scenario analysis, performance of thelated and observed concentration of water quality param-

WEAP simulation is justified with significant association

eters in particular chloride at for two monitoring wells.

between observed and simulated values of hydrological

Main parameters adjusted here at step by step basis are

and water quality parameters using trial and error meth-initial concentration of chloride in the groundwater andod. Hydrology module parameters (mainly effective pre-rate of rate of drawdown. Correlation between observed

cipitation and runoff/infiltration) were adjusted during

and simulated values once statistically satisfied to con-simulation in order to reproduce the observed groundwa-

firm suitability of the model performance in this problem

ter level or piezometric level for a certain period of time

domain, future simulation for both water quality and hy-

for hydrology module validation (Table 1). Whereas, water

drological parameters were initiated.

quality simulation part is validated by comparing simuStep

Effective precipitation

100%

±0.5%

Runoff/inﬁltration ratio

50/50

±5/5

X mg/L or CFU/100ml±0.5%

Household discharged water quality parametersconcentrations both at the observation site and river head

Table 3.2. Summary of parameters and steps used for calibration.

Tutorial
Risk assessment (For water quality component)
WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model is used based on the following benefits:
Free available for developing countries
A highly flexible hydrologic-water quality model
WEAP can model large number of pollutants
GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface
Scenario management capabilities
In summary, the model framework and model structure are shown in the two figures below. Looking in to the flowchart ofthe model framework, there are four major components viz. WEAP model set up (schematic diagram and data input), calibration, validation and finally simulation. The structure of the model consists of four components i.e. schematic diagram,data input, scenario analysis and finally evaluation of scientific data for policy formulation (providing credible scientificevidence for policy formulation).

59

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Initial Value

Parameter• Initial data preparation (GIS layers, river cross section, water quality, hydroWEAP
model setup

Calibration

Validation

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Simulation

meteorological parameters, wastewater management infrastructures etc.)• Model set up was done for the base year (2013) using Rainfall- Runoff method• Model calibration using trial and error trial on hydraulic (effective precipitation,
runoff/infiltration), and water quality parameters• Satisfactory statistical performance• Correlation between observed and simulated data for both hydraulic and water
quality parameters• Satisfactory statistical performance• Scenario building [two scenarios: a) Business as usual, b) With measures]

Policy recommendation based on the scientific findings for making robust futureplans for water resource management
Flowchart showing work WEPA framework.

A. Schematic development• Fix spatial boundary; time horizon; system components (groundwater, river, demandsite, catchment site etc.); network configuration

B. Current account• Fixed values of demand of groundwater, aquifer structure, rainfall-runoff module forhydrological module, water quality for model set-up• Calibration of the model set-up using trial-error method• Validation of the model considering groundwater level, water quality parameters etc.

C. Scenario building• Two scenario developed for year 2030: a) business as usual considering effect ofclimate change, population growth, land use land cover change etc.; b) scenario withmeasures

D. Evaluation• Transport and fate of the pollutants based on the groundwater development• Efficiency of the measures for water resource management
Flowchart showing model structure.

60

Expected outcome

a With scenario based simulation, we will be able tob It will also help to identify what are the suitablepredict what will be the future situation of the water

mitigation/adaptation measures for improving thisenvironment

water environment

Steps for WEAP training
Step 1. Before working on WEAP software, download and register it. After that, procure the free license.
Step 2. Running WEAP for the first time

Establish a New, Blank Area.
Open WEAP for the first time, a project area called “Weaping River Basin” will appear. Use the Area, Create Areamenu option to make a new, blank area.

A window, as shown below, will appear in which you should click on the “Initially Blank” option. In the next steps,
you will be defining this area for a specific geographic area of the world - so you can name the area based on thisselection if you like (e.g., Mindoro_1).

bAfter clicking “OK” you will be prompted to save changes to the Santa Rosa River Basin. After clicking yes, you will
get the following screen:

61

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolac

Click “OK” again. In the next screen, you will select the geographic area for your project from the world map thatappears. Use your cursor to draw a rectangle around the area that your project will represent. The boundaries willappear as a green rectangle as shown below.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toold You can then use the slider bar on the lower left of the window to zoom into this selected area.

e

You can redraw you green rectangle to best capture the area you want in this view. Click on “OK” when you are satisfied with your area boundaries. Note that you can modify these boundaries later by choosing “Set Area Boundaries” on the pull-down menu under Schematic on the top menu bar.

62

Step 3. Add a GIS layer to the Area
You can add GIS-based Raster and Vector maps to your project area - these maps can help you to orient and construct your system and refine area boundaries. To add a Raster or Vector layer, right click in the middle window to
the left of the Schematic and select “Add a Raster Layer” or “Add a Vector Layer.” A window will appear in which you
can redirect it to the folder having shape file. After adding the shape file of river network, groundwater and otherelements for the study area.

a

In this case, add the Admin_boundary_Export_Output.shp file from folder named as Mindoro_WEAP_training, asshown below.

Now we are going to proceed with learning how to navigate through WEAP and its functionalities.

a Click “General” from menu and using drop down menu select different options and set the different parameterslike to set Years and Time Steps.

b Set the Current Accounts Year to 2015 and the Last Year of Scenarios to 2030.
c

Set the Time Steps per year to 12.

d Set the Time Step Boundary to “Based on calendar month” and starting in January (see below)

63

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Step 4. Setting General Parameters

eKeep the default (SI units) for now.

Here the year 2015 will serve as the “Current Accounts” year for this project. The Current Accounts year is chosen
to serve as the base year for the model, and all system information (e.g., demand, supply data) is input into the

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Current Accounts. The Current Accounts is the dataset from which scenarios are built. Scenarios explore possible
changes to the system in future years after the Current Accounts year. A default scenario, the “Reference Scenario”
carries forward the Current Accounts data into the entire project period specified (here, 2015 to 2030) and serves asa point of comparison for other scenarios in which changes may be made to the system data.

fSimilarly, under “General”, the units also need to be fixed as shown below.

gNext, in order to do the simulation of water quality parameters, we need to select general—water quality parameters and must click enable water quality modeling. By default, WEAP will simulate temperature, BOD and DO. However, if we need to add other parameter, we can do that after click add button and adjust units as our observed data,
for example chloride in this case.

64

Step 5. Draw different elements to make full schematic diagrama

Click on the “River” symbol in the Element window and hold the click as you drag the symbol over to the map.
Release the click when you have positioned the cursor over the upper left starting point of the main section of theriver. Move the cursor, and you will notice a line being generated from that starting point.

Important Note- The direction of drawing matters: the first point you draw will be the head of the river from where water
will flow. You can edit the river course later on by simply clicking-moving any part of the river to create a new point, orright-clicking any point to delete it.

check for the following element, how all demand is satisfied; this is accomplished by connecting a supply resource as
for example a groundwater source used in this case. Surface water is used to see the interaction between surface water-groundwater interaction. Different links are used to connect catchment, groundwater, river and demand site. For example:

Runoff/infiltration link is required to connect a catchment to a river
Transmission link is required to connect from the groundwater to a demand site
Return flow link is required to connect a demand site to a river.

b

Add a transmission Link first to a position on the groundwater, releasing the click, then pulling the link to demandsite and double clicking on this demand node. Do the same for other links as well.
Finally, the schematic will look like as in the figure shown below:

65

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

After finishing the river, we need to add catchment, groundwater, demand site etc. In the final schematic, we must

Step 6. Enter Data for the Main River
There are two ways to navigate to the data entry section of WEAP to enter data for the Main River.

aRight-click on the Main River and select Edit data and any item in the list. Switch to the Data view by clicking on
the Data symbol on the left of the main screen. Select: Supply and Resources/ River /Main River in the Data tree.
You may have to click on the “plus sign” icon beside the Supply and Resources branch in order to view all of the additional branches below it in the tree.

b

Alternatively, you can use the Tree pull-down menu and select “Expand All” to view all branches. The “Inflows andChapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Outflows” window should be open - if it isn’t, click on the appropriate button. Click on the “Headflow” tab. Click on
the area just beneath the bar labeled “2015” in the data input window to view a pull-down menu icon.

cSelect the “Monthly Time-Series Wizard” from the drop--down menu. Below the example is given for one sitenamed as St Rosa watershed.

66d Use the Monthly Time Series Wizard to enter the following data series shown in the image below:

Note that as you enter each data point, the data is shown graphically also. Do not input or change any other datafNote- WEAP divides up rivers into reaches (segments). Originally your river has only one reach; as you add with-yet. Push Finish to close the wizard.

drawal and return points, WEAP will automatically create new reaches.

67

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tooleStep 7. Input data for demand sites D1 and D2
Creating a demand node is similar to the process you used to create a river.

a Return to the Schematic view and pull a demand node symbol onto the schematic from the Element window, re-leasing the click when you have positioned the node on the left bank of the river (facing downstream) inside theadministrative boundary of the study area shown in black line.

b Enter the name of this demand node as Mindoro in the dialog box, and set the demand priority to 1.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolc

Right click on the Big City demand site and select “Edit data” and “Annual Activity Level.” This is the alternative
way to edit data, rather than clicking on the “Data” view icon on the side bar menu and searching through the datatree.
Note- The Demand Priority represents the level of priority for allocation of constrained resources among multiple demand sites. WEAP will attempt to supply all demand sites with highest Demand Priority, then moving
to lower priority sites until all of the demand is met or all of the resources are used, whichever happens first.

d You must first select the units before entering data. Click on the “N/A” under Unit in the Annual Activity level tab.
Pull down the arrow that appears, select “People”, and click “OK.” Then give the value of population for each demand sites.

e Data for population, annual activity level will be provided at this stage as shown below. Set the “Annual Activity
Level” for D1 as 34700. For D2, set as 102998.

68

f

Next, click on the “Annual Water Use Rate” tab and enter 300 under the year 2015.

g

Then consequently you need to fill information for other elements like groundwater quality and extraction rate.

h

Set the Groundwater quality in terms of Chloride at the equilibrium as 270mg/L.

Set the Groundwater extraction rate as 85 liter/capita/day.

have to sum up to 100% over the full year. If you don’t specify monthly variation, WEAP will prescribe a monthly
variation based on the number of days in each month.
We will not edit these values for the city demand, but we will edit them later for the agricultural demand.

Step 7. Input data for catchment C
First, we will specify the catchment runoff calculation method.

aSelect “C” in the assumption tree, first select catchment method. Ideally soil-moisture method is best suitable
method to calculate runoff as it divides the aquifer in two layers vadose zone and saturated zone mimicking thereal world situation more closely. However, the number of input data is quite huge. In this case (Mindoro), becauseof data scarcity, we have selected rainfall-runoff (simplified coefficient method) as shown below.

69

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolNote- The monthly variation is expressed as a percentage of the yearly value. The values for all of the months

b

Now we will add the different land use classes present in the study catchment. Click dataClick C click add andadd all the following land use/land cover types:
Crops

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolc

Built-up

Inland-water

ForestShrubsNow within Land Use Tab, fill all the information for each of the land use types in km2, as shown below:
Classes2015 (Hectares)

2030 (Hectares)

Built-up

100

140

Crops

140

120

Inland-water

100

90

Forest260

250

Shrubs200

200

Next we will input data related to climate.

d Click on the Climate icon and the Precipitation tab. In the 2015 column, open the Monthly Time-Series Wizard.

70e

Set the values for each month as below.

f

Now click on the Water Quality tab. We can give input in terms of either intensity or concentration of the waterg

Set the Water quality at catchment as Cl- 10 mg/L

quality parameters. Here in this study we used data in terms of concentration like shown below.

71

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolh Now, enable the water quality module within the river as shown in the image below.

Step 8. Input data for river related parameters
In this stage, we will provide information about river cross section, stretch of the river under consideration, water
quality at river head etc.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toola

Set the BOD Concentration in the 2015 column as 40.

b

Now give the value of distance marker and river cross section. For distance marker, as the length of river investigated is 18.3 km, put “0” below river head flow and 18.3 km for the tail flow point.

72

c

For the river cross section, click Flow Stage Width as shown below, and give all the input data.
0, 0, 04.6, 0.5, 85.32

11, 0.7, 123.11

15.6, 0.8, 138.11

17, 1, 155.67

20, 1.10, 165.11

23, 1.20, 171.95

Now once the reference scenario is done, we can start building scenario to include drivers and pressures whichhas potential to impact water quality. In this case, we will build a scenario including population growth.

aTo build new scenario, first click Manage Scenario.

73

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

Step 9. Generate different scenarios

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolb

A new window will pop up, where we need to put the name of scenario. A message will be asked that this scenarioc

Now once new scenario is created, then we need to change the concerning parameter in the new scenario while

is based on: Select reference as shown in figure below. Here example is shown for Mindoro.

keeping other parameters the same as the reference scenario. Example- For scenario with population growth, annual activity or population value will be increased from reference year to the target year as shown in figure below.

d Let’s try a scenario considering population growth. Click on the
Annual Activity Level tab, and enter data for the years 2015-2030
for D1 and D2, with the values below:
Note: due to data limitations, we have used the same population values for years 2015-2018. The result will be a graph likethe example shown below.

74

D1

D2

Year

Pola

Nauhan

2015

34700

102998

2016

34700

102998

2017

34700

102998

2018

34700

102998

2019

35463

105264

2020

36244

107580

2021

37041

109947

2022

37856

112365

2023

38689

114837

2024

39540

117364

2025

40410

119946

2026

41299

122585

2027

42207

125281

2028

43136

128038

2029

44085

130854

2030

45055

133733

Step 10. Run the model (simulation, calibration, validation)aOnce done with data input and after saving the model, press the Result button. There will a pop-out message
which will appear is “Results are out of date. Do you want to recalculate now?” as shown below. Press yes. An example is shown below.

After running the model, we might encounter messages like “values for some of the parameters are not suit-c

Now again press result for model simulation, and new window will pop-up showing result for different parame-able to run this model”. Fix and rerun the model.

ters. Here after selecting result for water demand, window will look like as shown below.

75

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) toolbd Now select the desired parameters from the dropdown menu to see the simulated result like water quality as
shown below.

We can change the chart type like bar, line, stack etc. based on our interest just by clicking and selecting it fromside menu. We can also export this simulated result data in excel sheet by doing right click on the windows andexport these data sets in to the desired folders. Where we can edit this output to draw different graphs as per ourconvenience. We can also change the type of graph we wanted to display like no comparison, relative to population growth, land use land cover, climate change, and different mitigation measures as shown in the drop-downmenu shown below. An example of the outputs of WEAP considering population growth, climate change, and landuse change scenarios is shown below with regards to the Chloride (Cl) parameter.
3000

Cl_current (2018)
Cl_future_PI_CC85 (2030)

Cl_future_PI (2030)
Cl_future_PI_CC45_LC (2030)

Cl_future_PI_CC45 (2030)
Cl_future_PI_CC85_LC (2030)

2500

2000

Cl (mg/L)

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

e

1500

1000

500

0

G1

Wells

76

G2

Additional information on model calibration and validation
In this tutorial, we have showed how to run the WEAP model for simulating water quality in the present and future.
In practice, the model needs to be calibrated and validated to ensure that the model’s simulated values are reliable.
For calibration, the following two parameters and the steps for adjusting them were used. The parameters are modified by the Steps shown, e.g. subtracting 0.5% from the initial Effective precipitation value (100%) until a satisfactory
match between simulated and observed values of the water quality parameters are obtained.

Parameters

Initial value

Steps

Final calibrated value for St Rosa

Effective precipitation

100%± 0.5%

93%

50/50

Groundwater quality

250 mg/L

Groundwater extraction

75 liter/day/capita± 5/5

GW_level_obs.

30

GW_level_sim.
55/45±10/10270

25Water level (m) (bgl)

Runoff/inﬁltration ratio

35

± 5/5

85

20
15

Once statistically with the model calibration results, the next step is model validation. For validation, we compare the5site, the results for model validation are shown in below. It is found that observed value for both parameters are significantly related.
35

GW_level_obs.

0

25

2200

Cl (mg/L)

2300

Water level (m) (bgl)

G2

Wells

2400

GW_level_sim.

30

20
15
10

Cl_Obs.

Cl_Sim.

2100
2000
1900

5
0

G1

1800
G1

Wells

G2

G1

Wells

G2

2400

Congratulations, you’ve Cl_Obs.
learned Cl_Sim.
how to perform water quality simulation using WEAP!

Cl (mg/L)

2300
2200
2100

2000
References
1900
World Health Organization (WHO) (2011) Guidelines or drinking water quality, 4th edn. World Health Organization, Geneva. p 563
Effler, S.W., Schimel, K., Millero, F.J., (1986) Salinity, chloride and density relationship in ion enriched Onondaga lake, NY. Water,1800
air and soil pollution,
G1 27. 169-180.
G2
Appelo, C. A. J.,& Postma, D. (2005).
Geochemistry, groundwater and pollution (2nd edn, p. 649). Balkema. The Netherland.
Wells

Kumar, P., Tsujimura, M., Nakano, T., Minoru, T. (2013) Time series analysis for the estimation of tidal fluctuation effect on different aquifers in a small coastal area of Saijo plain, Ehime prefecture, Japan. Environmental Geochemistry and Health. 35.
239–250.
Kumar, P*., Tsujimura, M., Nakano, T., Minoru, T. (2012) The effect of tidal fluctuation on ground water quality in coastal aquiferof Saijo plain, Ehime prefecture, Japan. Desalination, 286. 166-175.
Kumar, P.*, Tsujimura, M., Saraswat, C., Srivastava, P., Kumar, M., Avtar, R. (2017) Modeling transient intertidal submarine groundwater discharge in coastal aquifer of Western Japan. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences, India Section A PhysicalScience. Springer Publication. 87. 423-432. DOI 10.1007/s40010-016-0324-7.
Oude Essink (2001). Improving fresh groundwater supply problems and solutions. Ocean & Coastal Management, 44. 429–49.
Ozler HM (2003) Hydrochemistry and salt–water intrusion in the Van aquifer, east Turkey. Environmental Geology, 43. 759–775.
Sieber, J., Purkey, D. (2011). Water Evaluation and Planning System. User guide for WEAP21; Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S.
Center: Somerville, MA, USA; Available online:
http://www.weap21.org/. Accessed on 1 April 2014.

77

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool

10

observed to the simulated values of the parameter(s) for other dates not included in the calibration process. For this study

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures
to reduce land-use and climatechange risks

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Overview of this chapter
Brian A. Johnson
Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog
Masayuki Kawai
Pankaj Kumar
Rajarshi Dasgupta

As discussed in the previous chapters, land-use changes can exacerbate the impacts of climate change, e.g. by causing increased exposure to storm surge andsea-level rise when coastal ecosystems are converted to urban/built-up or agricultural lands. The participatory coastal land-use management (PCLM) approach presented in this guidebook provides a framework to assess these impacts, and aids indesigning appropriate climate change adaptation measures with local governments
and other relevant stakeholders. Previous chapters have focused on the scenario
development and impact assessment steps of PCLM. The focus of this chapter is toprovide some guidance for adaptation measure development and implementation,utilizing the results of the different impact assessments. It is based mainly on lessons learned from a case study in the Oriental Mindoro Province of the Philippines.

In this chapter, you will learn:
How to identify countermeasures through a participatory process;
About potential technologies and funding sources for climate change adaptation;

78

Main concepts
Science-based climate actions can be aided by the use a

Land-use Planning and Implementation) represent theframework that involves several key elements including:policy aspects. In this chapter, we demonstrate how theseidentifying potential future climate change scenarios;

third and fourth steps of the PCLM approach can be im-assessing the impacts of the predicted changes; devel-

plemented through a case study of Oriental Mindoro Prov-

oping, appraising, and prioritizing management options

ince of the Philippines.

(e.g., policies, measures); mainstreaming the options into
Countermeasures to reduce land-use change and climate

monitoring and evaluating the progress and results of thechange impacts are, by their nature, site specific, so theimplementation. The PCLM approach presented in thisspecific measures presented here should be taken as ex-

guidebook incorporates these elements in its four steps.

amples rather than “best practices”. What is important is

The first two steps of PCLM (Scenario Development, andthat the countermeasures contribute to enhanced land-

Impact Assessment) represent the (mostly) technical as-use planning and management in the coastal areas where

pects of this framework, while the third and fourth steps(Countermeasure Development, and Climate Resilient

they are identified (e.g. to reduce land-use change/climatechange impacts on coastal communities).

Case Study of Oriental Mindoro
Introduction
The island province of Oriental Mindoro of the Philip-

East side of Mindoro Island, and all except for Socorro andpines is located approximately 140 km from the Metro-

Victoria are located on the coastline. The main economic

politan Manila area. Oriental Mindoro is composed of 14

activities in Oriental Mindoro are agriculture and (eco-)municipalities: Baco, Bansud, Bongabong, Bulalacao, Cala-

tourism.

pan City, Gloria, Mansalay, Naujan, Pinamalayan, Pola,
Puerto Galera, Roxas, San Teodoro, Socorro, and Victoria(Figure 7.1). The population of this province was 844,059
as of the latest census in 2015 (Philippines Statistics Authority, 2015). The largest municipality and capitol of theprovince is Calapan City. Oriental Mindoro can be reachedby ferry boat in around 2 hours from Batangas City porton the mainland (Luzon Island). As seen in Figure 7.1, all
14 municipalities of Oriental Mindoro are located on the

Figure 7.1. Location of Oriental Mindoro
Province, Philippines.

PCLM pilot study in Oriental Mindoro
A research team from the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) and the University of the Philippines
Los Baños conducted a PCLM pilot study in Oriental Mindoro from 2019-2021. The remainder of this chapter focuseson this pilot study.

79

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

development planning; implementing the options; andPCLM Step 1: Scenario Analysis
In our research team’s first visit to Oriental Mindoro in 2019, we conducted a field survey of the island to understandthe coastal ecosystems present, and interviewed local officials to understand how the land-use had changed overtime in coastal areas. The photos in Figure 7.2 show examples of some of the typical mangrove ecosystems in different regions of the province. We learned that over the last few decades many of these mangrove sites were converted
to fishponds for commercial or recreational aquaculture (see Figure 7.3 for a photograph of one of these fishponds).
Indeed, conversion of mangroves to fishponds has been a common occurrence in the Philippines and other countries.

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Figure 7.2. Typical mangrove ecosystems in Oriental

Figure 7.3. Mangrove area that was converted

Mindoro, Philippines.

to a fishpond.

After this field visit, the research team held a consultation

For step 1 of PCLM, we conducted another consultation

meeting with government officials from the local gov-

meeting with coastal resource managers of the LGUs inernment units (LGUs) and Oriental Mindoro Provincial

Oriental Mindoro in January 2020, wherein we conducted

Agricultural Office (PAGO) to understand the climate-re-a participatory land-use mapping activity. For this activ-

lated hazards experienced in this study area. During

ity, we asked the LGU officials to map out their future (tothis meeting, we distributed a questionnaire asking the~2030) planned land-use changes in coastal areas using

government officials to rank the impacts of different

different colored markers for various land uses on printed

climate-related hazards in their municipality, on a scale

maps. Later, these land-use changes were digitized intofrom 1 (almost no impact) to 5 (very high impact). Based

GIS format using QGIS software (see Chapter 2 for how

on this questionnaire, we identified that some of the mainto perform this digitization). Based on this participatory

coastal hazards in the area are storm surge, sea-level rise,

mapping activity, we identified the land-use changes thatand groundwater salinization. Based on this hazard as-

were likely to occur from 2015 (date of most recent land-

sessment, we selected suitable modeling software to mod-use map) to 2030. The main land-use changes identified

el the future impacts of these hazards. The software that

were: mangrove forests are expected to increase in area

we selected are the ones presented in Chapters 4-6 of thisby approximately 7.4%, built-up areas are expected to in-

guidebook, namely: InVEST (for storm surge and coastal

crease in area by approximately 3.5%, and fishponds are

erosion modeling), SLAMM (for sea-level rise modeling),

expected to decrease in area by approximately 3.6% (Table

and WEAP (for groundwater quality modeling).

7.1). Notably, several LGUs mentioned mangrove replanting as a proposed activity in the future and in some cases
reconverting abandoned fishponds back to mangrove ecosystems.

80

Ha (2015)

Ha (2030)

Change (Ha)Change (%)

Annual Crop

164,100.34

163,713.76-386.58-0.24%

Brush/Shrubs

266,711.08

266,696.67-14.41-0.01%

Built-up

16,580.08

17,171.06

590.99

3.56%

Closed Forest

14,843.03

14,843.03

0.00

0.00%

Fishpond

7,467.28

7,198.62-268.67-3.60%

Grassland

151,031.57

151,031.48

-0.09

0.00%

Inland Water

23,516.55

23,510.84-5.72-0.02%

Mangrove Forest

4,813.59

5,169.70

356.11

7.40%

Marshland/Swamp

670.88670.88

0.00

0.00%

Open Forest

188,082.84

188,082.84

0.00

0.00%

Open/Barren

7,460.11

7,445.06-15.05-0.20%

Perennial Crop

147,612.11

147,355.53-256.58-0.17%

Table 7.1. Future land-use changes in Oriental Mindoro, determined based on a participatory land-use mapping activity.

For step 1 of PCLM, the research team also conducted a climate change scenario analysis, focusing on sea-level rise. We
calculated the local sea-level rise rate based on satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height from 1992-2010(acquired from : https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/aviso-satellite-derived-sea-surface-height-above-geoid)using the measurements centered on 12.5 degrees latitude, 122.5 degrees longitude. From these satellite measurements, we
calculated the historical sea-level rise rate (excluding land subsidence/uplift) as approximately 7.2. mm/year (Figure 7.4).
For our climate change scenario analysis, we assumed a slightly higher future sea-level rise rate of 8.0 mm/year to 2050,
as well as more extreme scenarios (e.g. doubling the sea-level rise rate).

Figure 7.4. Satellite-derived measurements of sea-level change from 1992-2010.

81

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Land-use/land-cover type

PCLM Step 2: Impact Assessment
Next, the research team conducted a series of impact as-

from Calapan City to Pinamalayan, as well as Mansalay,

sessments to try to understand how land-use change andare highly reliant on natural habitats to protect the coast-

climate change could potentially affect coastal hazards

line from these hazards. It should be noted that here wein the future. The results were presented to LGU staff inhave presented the results of this extreme “without coast-

an online workshop in October 2020, as it was difficult

al habitat” scenario rather than the (more conservative)

for the research team to travel to Oriental Mindoro due toscenario from the participatory mapping activity, because

COVID-19 travel restrictions.

the results of the participatory mapping scenario are very
similar to that of the “with coastal habitat” scenario (dueChapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

To demonstrate how land-use affects storm surge andto the minor land-use changes of the participatory map-

coastal erosion, the research team used the Coastal Vul-ping scenario as well as the coarse resolution at which

nerability Index model of InVEST (see Chapter 4) to map

the model runs, i.e. 100m x 100m grid size). The main idea

the coastal vulnerability with and without the coastalof this impact assessment is to demonstrate the impor-ecosystems (e.g. mangroves). From the results of this impact assessment (Figure 7.5), it can be seen that the areatance of the coastal ecosystems for coastal protection.

Figure 7.5. Outputs of InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Index model for Mindoro Island.

To model future sea-level rise impacts, the research teamno additional protection from sea-level rise compared toused SLAMM (Sea level affecting marshes model), as pre-the present. The research team presented maps of futuresented in Chapter 5. The main scenario considered andland-use/land cover in different LGUs to the LGU staff (seepresented was 0.5m sea-level rise by 2050, as compared

Figure 7.6 for an example). In the Figure 7.6 map, it canto the 1990 sea-level. This corresponds to approximately

be seen that some developed dry land (i.e. built-up areas)

8mm/year rise in the future, which was similar to themay be regularly flooded by 2050, and some undeveloped

historical rate of ~7.2mm/year. The results of SLAMM

dry land (i.e. agricultural areas) may become transitional

are maps of the future land-use/land cover, assuming

salt marsh due to frequent inundation.

82

Finally, for groundwater salinity impact assessment, theSolids (TDS), and Chloride (Cl). These results indicate that

research team analyzed well water samples collected bysome of the wells are already experiencing salt water

LGU staff from 35 different wells, and conducted future

intrusion. A map of the salt water-fresh water mixing ra-

simulation of water quality using WEAP (as presented intio was generated to show where the issue is of greatest

Chapter 6). The results of the analysis of the ground water

concern (Figure 7.7). In the area of greatest concern, water

quality from 35 well samples are shown in Table 7.2. As

quality modeling was conducted using WEAP to identify

seen in the table, approximately 25% of the well samples

the impacts of future climate change, population growth,were beyond World Health Organization (WHO) limits inand land-use change on groundwater quality.

terms of pH, Electical Conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved

Parameters

Minimum

Maximum

Average

St Dev

WHO permissible/
desirable limit(WHO, 2011)% of samples
beyond limit

pH

6.23

8.76

7.764

0.64

6.5-8.5

23%

Tastes bad, Bitter taste,mucous membrane allergy

DO (mg/L)

2.31

11.5

5.13

2.11

EC (µs/cm)

129

5140

714

1083

500

26%

Gastro-intestinal irritation

TDS (mg/L)

83.2

4901

587

1014

500

20%

Gastro-intestinal irritation, Not goodfor people with hypertension, diabetics

Salinity (ppt)

0.06

4.17

0.47

0.87

<1

6%

Salty taste and laxatic effect andnot suitable for ecosystem health

Cl (mg/L)

33.21

2308.14258.09479.05200

23%

Salty taste and laxatic effectTemp ( ˚C )

2.3

26

18.6

7.38

Distance fromsea (meter)

34

6220

979

1451.06

Depth (m)

0

104

37

39.33

83

Health effect

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Figure 7.6. Example of outputs from SLAMM model for Oriental Mindoro (Calapan City and Baco LGUs).

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Figure 7.7. Map of salt water – fresh water (SW-FW) mixing ratio of well water samples from Oriental
Mindoro. The areas with the large circles indicate the locations of major concern.

Figure 7.8. WEAP set-up and modeling results. Note: “Cl_current” indicates 2015 chloride level, “Cl_future_PI” indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase; “Cl_future_PI_CC45” indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase and climate change (RCP4.5 scenario); “Cl_future_PI_CC45_LC” indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase, climate change(RCP4.5 scenario), and land-use/land cover change; “Cl_future_PI_CC85” indicates 2030 chloride
level considering population increase and climate change (RCP8.5 scenario); and “Cl_future_PI_
CC85_LC” indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase, climate change (RCP8.5
scenario), and land-use/land cover change.

84

PCLM Step 3: Countermeasure identification
In Oriental Mindoro, countermeasures to reduce future

ter presenting the results of the impact assessments fromland-use change/climate change impacts were identified

PCLM Step 2, LGU officials completed an online question-

through online consultation meetings with local officials

naire survey to identify relevant countermeasures. Afterfrom the local government units (LGUs) located along thecompiling their countermeasures, we identified several

coast, as well as the Oriental Mindoro Provincial Agricultural Office (PAGO). For this, we used Zoom Video Commu-

common “priority” countermeasures in consultation with
the LGU officials (Table 7.3).

nications on February 24, 2021, as shown in Figure 7.9. Af-

Identiﬁed countermeasures
1. Mangrove protection/restoration
2. Seagrass protection/restoration

4. Expanding Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
5. Reversion of (idle/unproductive) ﬁshponds to mangroves
6. Seawall construction
7. Tapping deeper aquifers
8. Rainwater harvesting
9. Construction of desalinization plant/waste water treatment plant

Figure 7.9. Online workshop to identify counter-

10. Supporting "green" initiatives of local companies

measures in Oriental Mindoro.

11. Livelihood diversiﬁcation of local communities

Table 7.3. Priority countermeasures identified for
Oriental Mindoro.

Although we identified countermeasures in this casestudy through online workshops due to COVID-19 travel restrictions in 2020-2021, another option is throughtions that can be taken to address these land-use change/

in-person workshop. In an in-person workshop, the pro-climate change impacts in their locality. They write theircess for identifying countermeasures is quite similar.

identified countermeasures on notecards, and when com-

First, the participants from each LGU are grouped together

pleted, all of the notecards are collected and displayedin one table. Then, the results of the scenario analysis andat the front of the meeting room. A representative from

impact assessments (PCLM Steps 1 and 2) are presented.
Based on the presented information, the LGU officials areeach LGU then presents identified countermeasures tothe whole group (Figure 7.10). In this way, the countermea-

asked to discuss among themselves to identify the ac-sures can be shared among all LGUs. Finally, there is aquestion and answer/discussion section to identify andsummarize the priority/common countermeasures.

Figure 7.10. Consultation meeting with LGU officials and identification of countermeasures to reduce the negative impactsof land-use change and climate change.

85

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

3. Community participation in environmental policies/initiatives

PCLM Step 4: Climate-resilient land-use planning
After identifying all of these countermeasures, the stepand investment (GCF website: https://www.greenclimate.

of PCLM is to incorporate these measures into the local

fund/project/sap010). Further information on GCF propos-

plans and policies. For example, the countermeasures canal development and the process can be obtained from GCF

be used as a basis for applying for domestic/international

official website (https://www.greenclimate.fund/)climate adaptation funds (to raise funds for implementing
the countermeasures), and to improve/update the local

Aside from external funds for projects, green bonds areland-use plans and climate change action plans

another important future opportunity of fund raisingfrom private sector and local government. Green Bonds

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Two possible external funding sources were identified forare defined as “Bonds issued in order to raise finance forthis climate change adaptation fundraising: one national

climate change solutions and labelled as green by thefund called the People Survival Fund (PSF), and one inter-

issuer. They can be issued by governments, banks, mu-

national fund called the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The

nicipalities or corporations and can be applied to any debt

PSF is special fund in the Philippine National Treasury

format” (Climate Bond Initiative 2018). Green Bonds havethat finances climate change adaptation programs andbeen rapidly spreading in the world. The amount of global

projects. GCF, on the other hand, is a dedicated fund set

Green Bond issuance was USD3.1 billion in 2012; however,up by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change

in 2018, issuance grew to USD167.3 billion (Ministry of the(UNFCCC) in 2010 to help developing countries reduce

Environment based on data on the CBI website). The Secu-

their GHG emissions and enhance their ability to respondrities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the Philippines

to climate change.

has approved on 16 August 2018, the “Guidelines on theIssuance of Green Bonds under the ASEAN Green Bonds

Development of a GCF project proposal based on this proj-

Standards.” These Guidelines set out to adopt the ASEAN

ect is now under consideration and still at its early stage.

Green Bond Standards and provide for the rules and pro-

The Philippine Climate Change Commission (CCC) is thecedures for the issuance of ASEAN Green Bonds in the

National Designated Authority to endorse all proposals

Philippines. The eligible Green Project categories includes

for GCF. CCC looks at the quality of the proposal before

but are not limited to 1) Renewable energy, 2) Energy effi-

endorsing it to GCF. The Land Bank of the Philippines isthe national accredited entity implementing GCF projects.

ciency, 3) Pollution prevention and control 4) Environmentally sustainable management of living natural resources

In the Philippines, one SAP (Simplified Approval Process)and land use, 5) Terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity con-project, “Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Ear-servation, 6) Clean transportation 7) Sustainable waterly Warning System for the Philippines” has been approved

and wastewater management, 8) Climate change adap-

by GCF secretariat in November 2019. This project will

tation, 9) Eco-efficient and/or circular economy adapted

strengthen the Philippines’ ability to adjust to climate

products, 10) production technologies and processes, andimpacts, and implement long-term climate risk reduction11) Green buildings. These categories can involve/coverand adaptation measures. It will build on best practices in

the adaptation options identified in this Chapter. Further

multi-hazard early warning systems and link with fore-

information on the trend of Green Bond can be obtained

cast-based action to maximize impacts on the ground.

from following websites:

This includes climate-resilient development planning

International Capital Market Association:
https://www.icmagroup.org/green-social-and-sustainability-bonds/green-bond-principles-gbp/
Climate Bonds Initiative: https://www.climatebonds.net/
The Green Bond Issuance Promotion Platform: http://greenbondplatform.env.go.jp/en/

86Potential adaptation technologies and measures
Since this project was supported by the Ministry of theclimate change shall be mainstreamed into government

Environment of Japan, it is possible to introduce adapta-

policy formulations (Congress of the Philippines, 2009),

tion technology developed in Japan to another country

but also the national guidelines requiring that local cli-that is facing climate related disasters in recent years.

mate change actions shall be mainstreamed into CLUPs

The Japanese government publishes technologies owned(Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board, 2013). Upon theby private companies like Joukashou (decentralized

approval by the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

wastewater treatment technology) on the Climate Change

and the Sangguniang Panlalawigan (i.e. provincial as-

Adaptation Platform (A-PLAT: https://adaptation-platform.

sembly), the CLUPs serve as the basis for formulating thenies.go.jp/en/lets/adaptationbiz.html).

local Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP) and Local
Land Use Regulatory Board, 2013). It is essential that the

Finally, with regards to land-use planning, the local governments in Oriental Mindoro are in the process of revis-

scientific information provided through these types of impact assessments be incorporated into these local plans.

ing their Comprehensive Land-use Plans (CLUPs), following not only the Republic Act No. 9729 stipulating thatConclusion
In this final chapter of the PCLM Guidebook, we have presented a case study to demonstrate how countermeasures, identified through the PCLM approach, can be identified and then implemented to increase the resilience of coastal communities in climate hazard-prone regions. We sincerely hope that this guidebook, including the various tutorials included init, can help you to identify the future impacts of climate change and land use change in your own locality, and to develop
policies and projects to reduce these future risks.

References
Climate Bond Initiative (2018). Bonds and climate change: The state of the market 2018. https://www.climatebonds.net/system/
tdf/reports/cbi_sotm_2018_final_01k-web.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=34941&force=0 (last accessed March 08, 2021).
Congress of the Philippines (2009). Republic Act No. 9729: Climate Change Act of 2009. Manila, Philippines: Congress of thePhilippines.
Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (2013). CLUP guidebook: A guide to comprehensive land use preparation. Vol. 1, Quezon
City, Philippines: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board.
Local Government Academy (2014). LGU guidebook on the formumaltion of local climate change action plan (LCCAP). Pasig,
Philippines: Department of Interior and Local Government.
Philippine Statistics Authority (2015). POPCEN2015. https://psa.gov.ph/tags/popcen-2015 (last accessed March 08, 2021).

87

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks

Development Investment Programs (LDIP) (Housing andInstitute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan
Tel: 046-826-3700 E-mail: iges@iges.or.jp
https://www.iges.or.jp/