"CEAC Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on topics related to regional
cooperation and integration in East Asia, but they do
not represent the views of CEAC as an institution.

April 16, 2014

More Broken Windows Are Found around theGlobe

By TAKAHATA Akio
During the 1980s, New York City was called one of the worst crime-plagued cities in theUnited States: the streets were in disorder and people were exhausted. However, urban security wasrestored under the leadership of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani who upheld the “Zero Tolerance” policy inthe 1990s. The key to Giuliani’s approach is the “Broken Windows Theory”, that is, “If some broken
or vandalized windows of the building are left unrepaired, people will fall into moral lapses, andeventually, all the windows will be broken.”

When I see the world today, things seem to go as stated in that theory. Ever since US
President Barack Obama declared that the United States was ‘not the world’s policeman’ (September10, 2013), a police-less uncertainty is prevailing around the globe. In Syria, Iran, Ukraine, and soforth, actions ignoring international rules and destroying international order are taking place withimpunity. In East Asia, China takes increasingly assertive actions to expand their maritime interestsby force. Of course, the United States is not responsible for everything that happens in the world, butthere is no denying that the windows of peace and security have started to be broken here and there
in the world.

After the end of the Cold War, the world order had been maintained under the Americanprestige and leadership, but now they started to weaken. There is no doubt that Chinese and Russian
leaders noticed it and seized the opportunity. Symbolically, American and Europe just stood by andfailed to take any effective measures, while the Russians proceeded promptly to invade Crimea inthe south of Ukraine. When the United States decided to manifest militarily, it was too late.

In my opinion, this is partly because many American experts and media sources were sonaive and optimistic as to believe that Russia would never resort to military intervention to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, it was a fatal mistake that the Obama administration’s official ruled out any possibilityof military action as a counter measure since the beginning. Had Obama put armed forces on highalert promptly based on information from satellites, and ordered the Mediterranean fleet to stand by,these diversion actions could have prevented things from going worse.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates points out that President Obama and his staff
do not trust the military, in his recent memoir. As Mr. Gates mentions, the president changed hismind at the last moment, and decided to refrain from military intervention in Syria. At present, it
seems that he is preoccupied with withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some people in the United Statesridicule that Obama’s second term foreign policy and national security team including Secretary ofState John Kerry and national Security Advisor Susan Rice is a B-team. Regarding recent problem inUkraine, some experts criticize the Obama administration’s response so harshly as to say even theCarter administration’s improper diplomacy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War era wasnot this bad.

There was a stark contrast between the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
and China’s defense budget for 2014, both of which were released in mid-March and reported on thesame day by Japanese media. There is nothing strange that the QDR states clearly that the UnitedStates will maintain the strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, but it is inevitable that thedefense expenditure will drop sharply as a result of sequestration. On the other hand, China’s
defense expenditure is set for double digit growth, as if they ridicule the lack of will and money tosustain defense level on the American side.

Obama administration’s real feature as shown in its reaction to the crisis of the Ukrainiancrisis, such as poor preparations based on optimistic assumption, lackadaisical responses to thereality, and ineffective counter measures cast a dark shadow over Japan’s security. In case of Chinese
invasion to the Senkaku Islands, instead of Crimea, would the US government merely explore
settlement through “negotiations” or just impose economic sanctions without taking militarycountermeasures?

According to a famous quotation, “Power without justice is tyranny, justice without power
is inefficient”. In this case, President Putin is the former, and President Obama is the latter. IfPresident Putin pushes through his way like this, the Northern Territories will never return to Japan.
In order to prevent military clashes among major powers, it is indispensable to build up strong
deterrence and check-and-restraint capabilities, and to respond resolutely to the crisis. The global
community must not allow any change of national borders and territories by force. Shinzo Abe’scabinet should act closely with the United States and Europe, and denounce aggressive behavior ofRussia and China.
(This is an English translation of the article written by Mr. TAKAHATA Akio,

Journalist, which originally appeared on the e-forum “Hyakka-Somei” of CEAC on April1, 2014.)