IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

American Views on Energy and Trade
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes

Tokyo, November 12, 2018

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Pew Research Center•

Established 1996•

Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations•

Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington•Research topics:
U.S. politics
Media and the news
Social trends
ReligionInternet and technology
Science
Hispanics
Global public opinion
Migration•www.pewresearch.org

November 12, 2018

2

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

AMERICAN VIEWS ON ENERGY ISSUESARE HIGHLY PARTISAN

February 2017www.pewresearch.org

3

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

There is Strong Public Support forMore Solar and Wind Power
Favor or oppose expanding each energy sourceOppose

Favor

More solar panel farms

1089

More wind turbine farms

1385

More nuclear power plants

54

44

More hydraulic fracturing

58

39

More offshore drilling

60

39

More coal mining

61

37

Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults March 27-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018

4

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

And Strong Bipartisan Support for Expanding Renewables,
But Wide Divides Over Increased Use of Fossil Fuels
Favor expanding each energy source

Conservative Republican
Mod/lib Republican

Liberal Democrat
Mod/cons Democrat

More solar panel farms

80

More wind turbine farms

71

More coal mining

17

More offshore drilling

1667
73

More nuclear power plants

57

38
093
70

13

More hydraulic fracturing2040

Note: Republicans and Democrats include independents and others who “lean” toward the parties.
Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults March 27-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018

96

560

80

100

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Political Divisions Over Increasing Offshore DrillingFavor more offshore oil and gas drilling in U.S. waters

85 8686

Republican/lean Rep
75
6465
5651
40
Democrat/lean Dem

2720082010

32222012

2014

Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults 2008-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018

64620162018

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Also Partisan Divides Over Increasing Hydraulic Fracturing
Favor more hydraulic fracturing for oil and natural gas

71

Republican/lean Rep
58

59

5860

Democrat/lean Dem3734

3128

2012

25

2014

2016

Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults 2012-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018

72018

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

And Similar Partisanship on Nuclear Power
Favor more nuclear power plants that generate electricity

60

66
5965
Republican/lean Rep
51

3638

37

34

51

53

38

39

2016

2018

Democrat/lean Dem

2008

2010

2012

2014

Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults 2008-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 20188

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Americans Are Divided on Government’s Rolein Promoting Renewables
The private marketplace will ensure that businesses and consumers rely more on
renewable energy sources, even without government regulations
Government regulations are necessary to encourage businesses and consumers torely more on renewable energy sources
U.S. adults

Cons Republican
Mod/lib Republican
Mod/cons Democat

4256

75

25514835

Liberal Democrat

6415

Note: Republicans and Democrats include independents and others who “lean” toward the parties.
Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults March 27-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018983

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Democrats and Republicans Disagree Over the Evidence
and Main Causes of Climate Change
Earth warming because of human activity
Earth warming because of natural pattern
There is no solid evidence of warming
U.S. adults

Conservative Republican

53

1846

Mod/lib Republican

4269

Liberal Democrat

181783

Note: Republicans and Democrats include independents and others who “lean” toward the parties.
Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults March 27-April 9, 2018.

10173639

Mod/cons Democrat

July 3, 2018291315 2IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

And Republicans and Democrats are Deeply Divided Overthe Role of Human Activity in Climate Change
The Earth is getting warmer mostly due to human activity

78
Democrat/lean Dem

6151533664

58
Republican/lean Rep1828646975

2323232426182006

2008

2010

2012

Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults 2006-April 9, 2018.

July 3, 2018

112014

2016

2018

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

AMERICAN VIEWS OF TRADEFebruary 2017www.pewresearch.org

12

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Americans Have Consistently Felt Better About Trade Than
About Trade Agreements__ is/are good for the U.S.

78

Trade59

65

49

44 44 4434

2001

2003

2005

59 5835524335

2007

2009

40

6866

53

47 47

745150 52
48
45
Free trade agreements

2011

2013

2015

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey. Q25. Free trade agreement data from May 2018 Pew Research Center survey.

November 12, 201813562017

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Women, Young People, Minorities Most Supportive of FTAs
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries
have been a good thing for the United States
TOTAL

52%

Women

55

Men50

18-34

64

35-49

58

50-64

4465+

38

Hispanic

63

Black62

White

47

Note: Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017.
November 12, 2018www.pewresearch.org

14IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and othercountries have been a __ for the United States

Good thing

Bad thing%%

TOTAL Population

5240

White men

46

47

18-34

63

32

35-49

49

41

50-64

3555

65+3458

Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic.
Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017.
November 12, 201815

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Americans Are Twice as Likely to Believe Trade is Good forthe U.S. as to Think It Creates Jobs or Raises Wages
Trade with other countries …
2014
68%

2018

20142014

2018

Createsjobs

Is good28%

21

31
Increases
wages

202018

3537

32

32

28

25

Increases
prices31

34

Does notmake adifference

Decreases
prices17

Decreases
wages

Destroys
jobs

45

50
25

24

Does notmake adifference

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey. Q25-Q28.

November 12, 2018

2014

7436

Is bad2018

1632

30

Does notmake adifferenceIEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

WHO DO AMERICANS SEE AS FAIR TRADERS?

February 2017www.pewresearch.org

17

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Americans See Canada, EU, Japan as Fair Traders,
China as Unfair
Do you believe that __ has a fair or unfair trade policy with the U.S.?

UnfairCanada24%

EU65%

29Japan5633

MexicoChinaFair

5546446230

Source: Gallup poll conducted June 18-24, 2018.

November 12, 201818

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

The Public’s View of Japan’s Trade Fairness, in Particular,
Has Improved Markedly% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.

1993

2018%%

EU5256+4Japan

2455+31

Mexico4544-1

Canada7765-12

Source: Gallup poll conducted June 1993 and June 18-23, 2018.

November 12, 2018

191993-2018changeIEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Partisan Perceptions of Trade Fairness Have Changed
Dramatically Over Time% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.

CanadaRepublicans
Democrats
EU
Republicans
Democrats
MexicoRepublicans
DemocratsJapan
Republicans
Democrats

1993%

2018
%

8176

49
82-32
+65451

4270

-12
+1947
42

29
59-18
+1721
27

46
65

+25+38Source: Gallup poll conducted June 1993 and June 18-23, 2018.

November 12, 2018

1993-2018change20

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018WILL TARIFFS HURT THE ECONOMY AND THE U.S.?

February 2017www.pewresearch.org

21

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Pluralities Say Tariffs Hurt the U.S. Economy
Will Trump’s policies on international trade and/or raising tariffs help or hurt the U.S. economy?

HurtFox

NBC

44%

28%

4925

Source: Fox News poll conducted July 9-11, 2018; NBC survey conducted July 15-18, 2018.

November 12, 2018

Help22IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

By Two-to-One Republicans Say Tariffs Help the Economy,
By Seven-to-One Democrats Say Duties Hurt the Economy
Will raising tariffs help or hurt the U.S. economy?

HurtTotal
18-34

Help
25%

49%

2255

35-49

47

2850-64473065+48

Republicans
Independents

171656

Democrats 71

10Source: NBC survey conducted July 15-18, 2018.

November 12, 2018

45

2323

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

And More Americans Say Increased Tariffs On Trading Partners
Will Be Bad Not Good for the U.S., But Views Are Very Partisan% who think increased tariffs between the U.S. and some of its trading partners will be __ for U.S.

BadTotal

49%

40%Men4544Women

3752

Rep/Lean Rep
Conserv

Dem/Lean DemCons/ModLiberal

73188013Mod/Lib6130
15772072
1082

Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted July 11-15, 2018.

November 12, 2018Good24

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Whites Are Divided on Tariffs
Blacks, Hispanics Say They Will Be Bad for the U.S.
% who think increased tariffs between the U.S. and some of its trading partners will be __ for U.S.

BadTotal

49%

White

40%

44

HispanicBlack47542868

19

Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted July 11-15, 2018.

November 12, 2018Good25

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

A Large Partisan Divide, Even Among College Graduates, on
the Impact of Increased Tariffs% who think increased tariffs between the U.S. and some of its trading partners will be __ for U.S.

Bad
College grad+

Good
38%

56%

Non-coll grad

4245

Among Rep/Lean Rep …
College grad+2173

Non-coll grad

1774

Among Dem/Lean Dem …
College grad+Non-coll grad

589

2070

Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted July 11-15, 2018.

November 12, 201826

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

VIEWS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S TRADE POLICYFebruary 2017www.pewresearch.org

27

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Public Disapproval of Trump’s Handling of Foreign Trade
Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s handling of foreign trade?

Disapprove
FoxApprove
41%

53%

CNN

NBC

3950

3845

Source: CNN study conducted June 14-17, 2018; Fox News poll conducted July 9-11, 2018; NBC survey conducted July 15-18, 2018.

November 12, 201828

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

But Again Such Disapproval is Highly Partisan
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling foreign trade?

Disapprove
Total

50%

Men
Women

39%

434657White
Non-white

32434763<45>45
Trump approve
Trump disapprove

24572945

47
78487
7

Source: CNN survey conducted June 14-17, 2018.

November 12, 2018

Approve

29

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Trump Supporters Favor Protecting U.S. Industries OverGood Relations with Allies
What is more important?

Protecting U.S. industries
Total

25%

Women
Men63%

2069

31

Non-white
White581572

31<45>45
Trump disapprove
Trump approve

591773

3255
78652

33

Source: CNN study conducted June 14-17, 2018.

November 12, 2018

Maintaining good relations with allies

30

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

JAPANESE VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY AND TRADE

June 22, 201731

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

Japanese Skeptical That Trade Creates Jobs, Raises Wages
or Lowers Prices
Trade with other countries …
2014
69%

2018

2014

2014

Createsjobs

Is bad21

15

21

Does notmake adifference

Increases
wages

1015

41

32

40

37
Does notmake adifference

Source: 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
32

Decreases
pricesIncreases
pricesDecreases
wages

Destroysjobs
38

November 12, 201820142018

2018

72Is good25%

201846272335452139
Does notmake adifference

4234

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

In Japan: Young, Well-educated, Wealthier Are More Likely toSee Trade Creating Benefits% of Japanese adults who think trade with other countries …
GenderAge

Education*

Income**YoungestTOTAL Women Men Diff 18-29 30-49 50+ oldest gap Less More Diff Lower Higher Diff%%%%%%%%Is good7266

78 +127575

69

Creates jobs

212023+325

22

Increases wages

151316+317Decreases prices 21

1823+530%%+67075+57074+420+51827+91826+81315+21415+11316+32616+141826+81825+7*In Japan, the lower education category is secondary education or below and the higher category is post-secondary or above.
**Respondents with a household income below the approximate country median are considered lower income. Those with an income at or above theapproximate country median are considered higher income.
Notes: Statistically significant differences in bold.
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
November 12, 201833

IEEJ：November 2018 © IEEJ2018

All Pew Research Center reports areavailable online at www.pewresearch.org
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes

November 12, 201834

Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp