REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST(CONSULTING SERVICES – FIRMS SELECTION)
COUNTRY: Federated States of Micronesia
NAME OF PROJECT: Climate Resilient Road Project (P172225)
Assignment Title: Road Network Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Resilient Road Strategy
Reference No.: FM-DOTCI-148484-CS-QCBS
The Federated States of Micronesia has applied for financing from the World Bank toward the cost of the
Climate Resilient Road Project, and intends to apply part of the proceeds for consulting services.
The consulting services (“the Services”) include the climate change and natural hazard vulnerability
assessment, and climate resilient road strategy. It is expected that the study will be completed within six(6) months of commencement and is expected to require approximately 20 person-months of professional
input. The draft Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment are attached.
The Department of Transportation, Communication and Infrastructure (DoTC&I) now invites eligible
consulting firms (“Consultants”) to indicate their interest in providing the Services. Interested Consultants
should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant
experience to perform the Services. The shortlisting criteria are: (i) relevant experience: provide evidenceof multiple similar projects especially in the core areas of infrastructure planning, feasibility studies,design and construction supervision, and capacity development in the similar environments; (ii)managerial: provide evidence of technical and managerial capability; (iii) corporate: provide evidence ofstrong corporate track record and financial standing.
The attention of interested Consultants is drawn to Section III, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of theWorld Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” July 2016 revised November 2017 andAugust 2018 (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest.
Consultants may associate with other firms to enhance their qualifications but should indicate clearly
whether the association is in the form of a joint venture and/or a sub-consultancy. In the case of a joint
venture, all the partners in the joint venture shall be jointly and severally liable for the entire contract, if
selected.
A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Cost and Cost Based Selection Method (QCBS) set
out in the Procurement Regulations.
Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 0900 to 1700 Pohnpei Time
(Local Time).
Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below (in person, or by mail, or
by fax, or by e-mail) by Friday, February 21st, 2020.
Robert Goodwin,
Program Manager
Department of Transportation, Communication and Infrastructure (DoTC&I)
Palikir, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM)
Tel: (+691) 320 2080
Email: rscgoodwin@hotmail.com
Web: www.tci.gov.fm
And cc to:
Ciu.tci@gov.fm

Central Implementation Unit

Terms of Reference (TOR)
FSM Climate Resilient Road Project
Road Network Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Resilient Road Strategy
1.

Background

The largest nation in the Micronesian sub-region, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), is made up
of four semi-autonomous states (Kosrae, Pohnpei, Chuuk, Yap) located between Palau and thePhilippines to the west and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) to the east. Although its land area
covers just 700 square kilometers, FSM consists of more than 600 islands scattered over an area of
about 2.6 million square kilometers, including its Exclusive Economic Zone.[1]As with other small island nations in the region, FSM faces significant challenges related to its small size,
remoteness, geographical dispersion, environmental fragility and sensitivity to external shocks.[2] In
particular, frequent natural disasters and climate change impose high costs and may even threaten thephysical viability of some areas of both the main islands and more remote outer islands. Droughts,
typhoons, storm waves, flooding and landslides all affect FSM. The climate in FSM varies considerablyfrom year to year due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In Pohnpei, El Niño tends to bring drier
conditions during the dry season, but higher than average rainfall during the wet season, and La Niña
tends to bring above average rainfall in the dry season. The West Pacific Monsoon affects the westernstates of Chuuk and especially Yap more than the eastern states of Pohnpei and Kosrae, tending to be
farther east during El Niño resulting in more rainfall, and in a more western position during La Niña
resulting in less rainfall.
FSM is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is likely to suffer serious adverse
environmental, social and economic losses as a result of climate change induced hazards.[3], [4] For
example, in 2015, Typhoon Maysak wiped out 90 percent of key agricultural crops in Chuuk and Yap,
affecting 29,000 people and causing US$8.5 million in damages. Many people live within the coastal zone
and are therefore vulnerable to climate related changes in precipitation, sea level, storms and coastal
erosion. The negative impacts of climate change are already evident in FSM, for instance, saltwater
intrusion from rising sea levels that damage crops and contaminate freshwater supplies and increasing
extreme weather events such as typhoons. In addition, as drought and sea level rise are amplified byregional ENSO processes, formerly sustainable atoll communities now rely on imported food and water
during times of stress. Exacerbated by sea level rise, extreme spring tides, known in FSM as ‘King tides’,are causing intense marine inundation that damages taro beds, soil, agro-forestry resources, and criticalinfrastructure along the coast, especially on low atoll islets.[5]Projections under all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios indicate that annual average airtemperature and sea surface temperature will increase in the future. Based on the widely used Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (included in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report), by 2050 the average temperature in FSM is
expected to increase by 1.3°C in the high emission pathway, or by 0.78°C in the low emission pathway. In
both scenarios, the intensity and frequency of days of extreme heat are projected to increase throughout
the decades up to 2100. In addition, model projections show extreme rainfall days are likely to occur more
frequently. The majority of the simulations estimate an increase of rainfall of greater than 5 percent by
2090 under the high emissions scenario.[6] In addition, sea levels near FSM have risen and will continue
to rise throughout this century, with a projected rise in sea level in the range of 3 – 15 cm by 2030 under ahigh emissions scenario. This sea level rise combined with natural year-to-year changes will accentuate
the impact of storm surges and coastal flooding.[7]Similar to other Small Island Developing States, FSM is vitally dependent on access to well-functioning
and reliable transportation systems. FSM’s road network is of critical importance to the country’s
economic development. It provides for the day-to-day well-being of its people by increasing their accessto economic activities and social services. It is estimated that around 75 percent of the population lives
within one km of the coast, and critical infrastructure - such as hospitals, schools, places of employment,
tourist infrastructure, port facilities, airports, and roads–is located primarily in the coastal zone. The
country’s road network and users already suffer regular temporary – sometimes only for hours, but
occasionally longer - breaks of serviceability as vulnerable links or locations can be frequently rendered
impassible and journeys disrupted by flooding, debris deposit, culvert, bridge and/or pavement damage.
Expected climate change effects - the combination of rising sea level and more intense typhoons – willplace these coastal assets and communities at a higher level of risk.
The FSM road network faces a range of vulnerability issues, in particular: (i) coastal exposure to sea-levelrise, storm surge, wave action during very high tides and typhoons; (ii) inland flooding and landslips
during extreme rainfall events; and (iii) accelerated pavement deterioration due to extreme weather andrising water tables in some locations. The Government of FSM (GoFSM) plans to prepare a detailed
assessment of vulnerabilities in road transport and develop a strategy for enhancing the climate resilienceof the overall network for the same time-frame. GoFSM is working with donors to support its climatechange initiatives and has requested the World Bank’s assistance through the FSM Climate Resilient
Road Project (FSMCRRP). This TOR pertains one of the key pieces of technical assistance under
FSMCRRP, the preparation of the FSM Road Network Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Resilient
Road Strategy, as further explained below.
2.

Objective

The objective of this assignment is to prepare a Road Network Vulnerability Assessment and Climate
Resilient Road Strategy for FSM’s four states (approximately 360 km on the four principal islands of
Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae and Yap). This technical assistance will mainstream analysis of severe weather
events and climate change)into road network planning and will enable a prioritized list of proposed
investments in the network.
3.

Scope of Activities

The Consultant will conduct the following activities:
A. Climate Change and Natural Hazard Vulnerability Assessment
1. Based on existing GoFSM data and knowledge and consultations with relevant authorities, aswell as visual inspection and drive-over surveys, identify geographical areas – and major roadassets within those areas - with higher hazard and exposure risks (this section should be brief
and only comprise up to 5% of the input of the total assignment):
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Through further consultation and natural hazard risk information, identify and define existing and likely
future key hazard events (e.g. extreme rainfall, landslides, storm surge, king tides, etc.) and potential
impacts (blockages, wash outs, overtopping etc.) on the four principal islands of FSM.
Assess demographic and socioeconomic data and identify areas with high densities of population,
especially the poor or other vulnerable people.
Assess existing data and Government development plans and identify the location of (i) critical services
and (ii) major economic activities, existing and planned.
Undertake a critical assessment of the economic potential of high-risk areas and rank these on a rigorous(but appropriate in the context of FSM) methodological analysis that the Consultant proposes.
Drive-over surveys of all primary roads should include Go-pro or similar GPS-linked and GIS-compatible
video and still photo sequences, as well as International Roughness Index (IRI) profiles, to supplement
primary network mapping in (iii)(d) below. All data (including video and photos), surveys, models andprofiles will need to be delivered to GoFSM in a format compatible with its systems so that theGovernment can make use of it and update for future analysis.
ii. Utilize the information from point (i) above to identity priority geographical areas that are vulnerable toexisting and future disaster risks in line with the categories set out in the table below (this section isenvisaged to comprise about 10% of the input of the total assignment):Hazard Frequency and Severity

Exposure and High
Vulnerability[8]
Low

High

Low

First priority areas

Secondary priority areas

Secondary priority areas

Third priority areasa. Hazard may be assessed using the established methodology of hazard mapping, or any othermethodology that the Consultant proposes that is appropriate in the context of FSM. The Consultant
should identify the effect of different climate change scenarios on future levels of hazard.
b. Exposure and vulnerability should consider the size of population, the level of poverty, concentration ofcritical social services and major economic activities, among other indicators that the Consultant proposesthat are appropriate in the context of FSM.
c. To better equip GoFSM decision-makers under deep uncertainty of climate change impacts, utilize best
available data and climate change projections (using at least two of the four Representative
Concentration Pathways) to model and assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability.
iii. Assess the likely severity and frequency of hazard event impacts for all major links of the road network.
For example, this may entail estimating the amount of typhoon-induced storm surge inundation caused at
different sections of the road network by modelling the scenarios, frequency (based on a catalogue ofsuch events), and potential outcomes. In addition to other relevant resources, the analysis may propose
using latest results from the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program,the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative, and other relevant climate change
scenario/models to forecast possible impacts of severe weather events on the road network (this section
is envisaged to comprise about 15% of the input of the assessment). This assessment will require theConsultant to:a. Map out the existing transport network and assess existing and forecasted traffic data that will help
identify critical transport links for local socioeconomic development.
b. Identify the transport links that were disrupted in recent severe weather events or considered to besusceptible to disruption during disaster.
c. Identify critical transport links that could serve as important means of escape, access to emergency
relief or for the transport of agricultural or other economic assets.
d. Prepare GIS linked maps of the primary road networks to visually illustrate at-risk areas, as well as
critical transport links and locations of critical services and facilities.
iv. Assess the impact of loss of connectivity and access in priority areas and the impact on the overall
network based on the experience of recent severe weather events (this section is envisaged to compriseabout 15% of the input of the total assignment):a.Review existing data and conduct key informant interviews or focus groups and assess the extent of theloss of connectivity and basic access.
b. Model and assess the impact of such loss of connectivity and access on the lives and livelihood ofvulnerable population and overall economic activities.
v. While conducting in country assessments, provide capacity building to relevant GoFSM road sector
staff (federal and state) on all tools used to assess network vulnerability to ensure the sustainability of thisactivity so that Government can update the vulnerability assessment as needed after the project closes.

B. Climate Resilient Road Strategy (this strategy is envisaged to comprise about 55% of the input of thetotal assignment). Based on the Vulnerability Assessment, the Consultant will then prepare a Climate
Resilient Road Strategy that will: (i) outline a general climate change adaptation policy framework andobjectives for the roads sector; (ii) recommend a program of priority investments and other interventionsat specific risk locations; and, (iii) propose specific policy reforms required to provide a foundation forclimate change adaptation and to address natural hazard vulnerability in the roads sector. This will beachieved by the following:i. Identify potential adaptation options that respond to the assessed vulnerabilities and that are technicallyfeasible and appropriate in the FSM context. The analysis should include:a. Specific interventions at high-risk locations; and,b. Measures that can be taken at a national level to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance the resilienceof the road network, as described in the following tasks.
ii. Using multicriteria analysis (methodology to be proposed by the consultant), develop a prioritized
program of investments at specific locations to improve the climate resilience of the road network while
also enhancing road safety, environmental and social performance. This will include robust economic
analysis (e.g. informed by a cost-benefit analysis, economic internal rate of return and net present value
calculations, non-market valuation and other such tools), and weighted criteria for the non-financial
aspects of prioritization. The priority investments should be grouped into time bands such as short-term,
medium-term (i.e. before 2030), and long-term (i.e. 2030 to 2050) taking into account the urgency of therequired response and the design life of the proposed investment.
iii. Prepare tools to assess the vulnerability of road assets to current and future climate events, including
methodologies for determining the adequacy of existing roads to resist climate impacts; and that also
consider road safety, State EPA laws and regulations as well as land acquisition and access, andresettlement impacts for existing and new roads in each State under State land laws. The tools must becompliant the World Bank ESF and World Bank Group EHS Guidelines., including standards andguidelines relating to road safety. The tools must demonstrate that each of the identified key hazard
types and risk levels (e.g. extreme rainfall, landslides, storm surge, king tides, etc.) in FSM wereconsidered for their impact on different systems’ assets–built (infrastructure), natural and social-as well as
those systems with cross cutting influences, e.g. economic and institutional systems. Demonstrate thatthe level of vulnerability of the assets within these different systems was assessed and determined for its
severity, and that an adaptation strategy and action plans can subsequently be designed accordingly.
Deliver the tools in an accessible format to the Government so that it could continue to make use of themand update the assessments as needed after the project closes.
iv. Review current road planning processes, the institutional and legal framework for the roads and traffic
sector (e.g. relevant federal and state legislation, including land access and easements), national andstate road construction standards, road safety, maintenance (routine, periodic and emergency) methods
and regimes, and related processes and assess their adequacy in the light of projected climate change
and natural hazard vulnerability. Recommend suitable reforms, such as (but not limited to):a. Embedding consideration of climate change and disaster risk management issues into all roadplanning processes;b. Updating road design standards;c. Employing new approaches to road maintenance that take into account climate change and natural
hazards; and,d. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation and disaster risk management into the roads sector from
infrastructure and operational perspectives.
v. Review the institutional and legal framework as relevant to the implementation of Climate Change
Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management, and recommend specific reforms needed to:a. Improve management of traffic and road access during and following natural disasters.
b. Enhance quick response procedures to ensure that roads are repaired and restored quickly following
severe weather damage.
vi. While conducting in country assessments, provide capacity building/training to relevant GoFSM road
sector staff (federal and state) on all tools used to assess network vulnerability to ensure the sustainabilityof this activity so that Government can update the vulnerability assessment as needed after the project
closes.
4.

Deliverables
1. Inception Report that summarizes the initial result of the literature review and the study plan,
including an expansion of their methodology and approach (delivered as part of the firm’s
technical proposal) that contains, but is not limited to, the short list of priority areas, to besubmitted within half (0.5) a month of the commencement of the assignment.
2. Mid-term Report that provides the summary of findings and preliminary conclusions of the fullscope of activities above (i.e. Section 3 of this ToR), to be submitted within two and a half (2.5)
months of the commencement of the assignment.
3. Draft Final Report that builds upon the Mid-term Report by providing detailed analysis on all
aspects of the full scope of activities above (i.e. Section 3 of this ToR), addresses all written andoral stakeholder comments from the Mid-term report, provides stylized datasets, summarizes theconclusions and policy recommendations of the study and presents all data and information
obtained under the assignment. At this stage, the report will include the prioritized investments
based on the multi-criteria analysis, in both narrative and matrix format. In addition, all underlying
data and models are to be delivered to GoFSM alongside the Draft Final Report. To be submitted
within four and a half (4.5) months of the commencement of the assignment.
4. Presentation and Stakeholder Consultation through an in-country workshop on the
conclusions and policy recommendations presented in the Draft Final Report. The presentation
should be delivered in PowerPoint, and soft and hard copies of the Draft Final Report madeavailable to all participants.
5. Final report, addressing all stakeholder comments on the Draft Final Report and from thepresentation and consultation with stakeholders (as well as any updates to the underlying data
and models to be delivered to the client), within six (6) months of the commencement of theassignment.

5.

Team Composition & Qualification Requirements for the Key Experts

Consulting firms are encouraged to develop their own methodology as well as the staffing plan, level ofeffort and work approach to accomplish the ToR. This technical assistance assignment will require thefirm to staff an appropriate mix of highly qualified international and local staff that includes but is notnecessarily limited to the eight key experts noted below. Where key experts proposed by firms do nothave experience in Pacific or small island countries, it is expected that they would be assisted by non-key
experts with such experience. It is up to the firm to propose which of the staff on its team is Team Leader,among the positions: Senior Economist; Senior Road Engineer; Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Assessment Specialist. That individual will have overall responsibility for the direction, technicalexcellence and successful completion of the project and must have at least 15 years of ProjectManagement experience having leadership qualities in addition to the requisite qualifications of one of the
key staff positions noted below.

Key Staff
1. Senior Economist

Qualifications

Experience

Master’s degree in Economics
required, PhD preferred

At least 12 years of experiencein micro-economics. Experience
with statistical modeling;designing, implementing
household, commercial
properties, etc. surveys; andperforming complex econometricanalysis strongly preferred. At
least 3 years of experience insimilar studies, preferably in
Pacific Island Countries.
1. Senior Road
Engineer

1st degree in civil engineering,with post-graduate qualificationin roads-related discipline. Fullmembership of national orinternational professional
institution

1. Climate Change and Master’s degree in climate
Disaster Risk
sciences, urban planning, orAssessment
related field is required
Specialist

20 years or more experience inthe field of road engineering, outof which minimum 7 years postgraduate experience in roads
and drainage design in small
island states, preferably inthe pacific region would be anadvantage. Some CCA and/or
DRM-related project experience
preferred
Minimum of 10 years ofexperience working on climatechange and natural disaster
assessment, mitigation andremediation; at least 5 of whichshould be with a developing
country or emerging nation,
preferably in a small island
country.

1. Lawyer / Policy
Specialist

JD, LLB, LLM or equivalent
At least eight years’ experience
preferred. Alternatively,in policy and legal reform andindividuals with Master’s degree regulatory issues. An
in relevant discipline with at least international legal counsel witheight years’ experience in policy experience in FSM road policies
and legal reform and regulatory and legislation or assisted by anissues may also be considered. FSM lawyer with knowledge of
FSM road policies andlegislation is essential.

1. Engineering
Hydrologist

Bachelor’s degree in Hydrology, At least 7 years’ relevant
Physical Geography, Earthexperience in engineering
Science, Engineering, orhydrology including 3 years ofEnvironmental Science required experience of hydrodynamic
with a strong focus on hydrology. analyses and modelling, flood
Preferably a Master’s degree.
risk assessment with hydrologic
modelling software. Some CCA
and/or DRM-related projectexperience preferred

1. GIS/Mapping
Specialist

Bachelor of Science orEngineering Degree required

Minimum of 5 years of GIS
experience and experience
working with various data
formats such as CAD, GPS, etc.
Knowledge of environmental
resource management,

transportation, or geographystrongly preferred.
1. Environmental
Specialist

At a minimum a Bachelor’s
At least 10 years of experience
degree in science or engineering in positions requiring proficiency
discipline (Biology, Chemistry,
with the analysis and application
Geology, Environmental, Civil or of environmental regulations;Chemical Engineering)skills in the application ofenvironmental and technicalconcepts is also required. At
least 3 years’ experience insimilar studies preferable inPacific Island countries.

1. Social Development Master’s degree in a relevant
At least 10 years relevant social
Expertfield such as sociology,
development experience andanthropology, urban planning, or proven track record in working
other social sciences.
on projects covering a broad
range of resettlement and social
development issues. Experience
working in Pacific Island
countries preferred. Having goodknowledge of World Bank
polices and framework for social
development.

6. Administrative Personnel and other Technical Staff
The Consultant shall have its own office and field staff to assist in the Services. The staff provided shallbe experienced and be capable of performing their allotted duties. In particular for:
1. office administration and clerical personnel; and2. field assistants for team members in carrying out field work, etc.

7. Client’s Input
Data to be made available to the Consultant by GoFSM through DoTC&I will include, but not necessarily
be limited to:
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Rainfall history information (daily, annual, maximum per day) within the studied area (from north andsouth meteorological stations)
IDF curves (intensity-duration-frequency curve) for rain locally available
Available reports previously done on roads drainage in country
Water level series at all existing river gauges located within the studied area (if available)
Discharge measurement series at all existing gauges within the studied area (if available)
Information about rain drainage problems that occurred on studied roads during storm
Storm water typical details in studied roads
Geological maps of the country in order to know the properties of the soil in the studied area andinformation about the rate of infiltration of the soil
General contour maps of studied islands (in order to determine catchment areas and calculate storm
water rain flow)
Photos of drainage system in studied roads

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Environmental controls adopted in country for storm water drainage outlets (if available)
Climate change effects on country climate and rainfall
Technical specifications for road drainage
Water table information on studied area (if available)
Photos of studied roads and main defects in them
Pathologies/ distress existing on the roads (types and degrees of severity). Information about the main
problem encountered by local people on the studied roads
State EPA laws and regulations
Available Updated Traffic Data
Any Road Safety Audit Report(s)All relevant Land Transport Acts and regulations as well as climate change focused infrastructure
strategies
The Client will provide unimpeded access to relevant information that it may hold to assist the Consultant
in this project on “as available” basis
8.

Duration and Level of Effort

It is expected that the study will be completed within six (6) months of commencement and is expected torequire approximately 20 person-months of professional input.
9. Counterpart Facilities
A. Counterpart personnel
DoTC&I will provide a local liaison officer, who will liaise with local communities and vulnerable persons
on matters concerning the project field work and related matters.
B. Office accommodation and logistics
The consultant shall be responsible for providing all accommodation, computing, and drafting equipment
and software etc. The consultant will be responsible for all land transportation arrangements during the
project.
[1] An Exclusive Economic Zone is a sea zone prescribed by the United Nations Convention on the Lawof the Sea (UNCLOS) over which a state has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine
resources, including energy production from water and wind.
[2] Systematic Country Diagnostic, Report No. 102803, World Bank, January 20, 2016.
[3] In acknowledging that a variety of definitions may be used for the terms risk, hazard, vulnerability andexposure, the following definitions are used for this ToR. Risk refers to the likelihood that a bad outcome
occurs to an exposed asset (e.g., bridge failure) within a specified period because of the effects of naturaleffects (e.g., tropical cyclone induced storm surge). Hazard refers to when the effects of the natural
events reach or exceed specified levels at a certain location within a period (e.g., storm surge exceeding
1 meter). Vulnerability refers to the propensity of an asset to be damaged by the effects of an event.
Exposure refers to when assets are in harm’s way.
[4] FSM Country Profile. World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 2018.
[5] Climate Change in the FSM – Food and water security, climate risk management, and adaptive
strategies. University of Hawaii. 2010.
[6] FSM’s Second National Communication to UNFCCC on adaptation[7] Current and future climate of the Federated States of Micronesia. Pacific Climate Change Science
Program. 2011.
[8] Refer to footnote 3 for definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability and exposure.