Journal of Global Resources

Volume 5 (01)January 2019
ISSN: 2395-3160 (Print), 2455-2445 (Online)

Page 73-78

09
CLIMATE CHANGE, RISING TEMPERATURE AND HEAT RELATED ILLNESS: INDIANSCENARIO
Kuheli Mukhopadhyay1 and Satabdi Datta2
1
Post-Doctoral Researcher, Global Change Programme, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
1
Guest Lecturer, Sivanath Shastri College, Kolkata, India
Email: kuheli.gcpju@gmail.com
2
Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
2
Environmental Economist, The Celestial Earth, Gurgaon, India
Email: sdatta.eco@gmail.com
Abstract: Rising temperature is one of the immediate results of climate change. Projections
reflect that this phenomenon will intensify in future. This increases the risk of several harmful
consequences that the ecosystem and the world are getting exposed to. Impact on humanhealth, both direct and indirect, is one of such serious concerns in this context. The objective of
this study is to understand how rising temperature and extreme heat is impacting human healthwith reference to India. This has been done mainly through literature review pertaining toclimate change impact on human health along with interpretation of statistics and outcomesfrom existing studies to present extreme heat related mortality and morbidity cases in India. The
study finds that in developing countries like India, the issue of rising temperature induced healthimpacts is more complicated to tackle given the infrastructural, economic, socio-cultural,demographic and environmental conditions. Already increase in temperature has caused
multiple ailments, disabilities and deaths in the country along with a projected risk ofintensification. In view of above situation, building up sufficient coping and adaptive strategies
and implementing them in a planned way is required to restrict and reduce chances of any
further loss of human health and lives. The study finally highlights some of the coping measuresagainst adverse health impacts of climate change.
Key words: Climate Change, Temperature, Human Health, Coping Strategies, Adaptation
Introduction
There is substantial scientific corroboration which indicates that the earth’s climate is changing
with time as a result of emission of Green House Gases (GHG) caused by anthropogenic
activities (IPCC, 2007); (Stern, 2007). It is certain that the global mean surface temperature has
increased since the late 19th century and each of the past three decades has been successively
warmer at the Earth’s surface compared to the previous decades in the instrumental record(IPCC, 2013). Climate models predict that doubling of preindustrial levels of GHG (which was at
280 ppm CO2 equivalent) will raise the global mean temperature of the earth by (2-5)°C and thislevel of GHG will be reached probably between 2030 and 2060 (Stern, 2007). Detailed
projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment
Report for the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
scenarios show that global warming will not only persist but will also accelerate in future (IPCC,
2014). Scientific assessments indicate that rising global temperature as a result of climatechange is likely to bring about an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather
events like heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods etc. Changing climate will make summers
warmer. This will be coupled with an increase in the frequency and intensity of hot days andnights (WHO, 2004) ; (IPCC, 2013). Rising daily maximum temperature is also very likely to beaccompanied by an increase in the number of heat related deaths (IPCC, 2014). Increasing
humidity levels will further deteriorate the impact of extreme summer heat on human health(IPCC, 2007);(WHO, 2004). Heat waves will produce direct threats to human health through73

heat stress with its dire consequences. Globally, the number of warm days/nights has alreadyincreased since 1950s and will continue to do so in the coming decades. (IPCC, 2014). Also,
cases of hot extremes along with heat stress are expected (IPCC, 2014). In the long term, heatwaves will occur at a higher frequency and for prolonged duration in response to higher
seasonal mean temperatures (IPCC, 2014).
Developing countries like India that are located over lower latitudes are considered to be
more threatened due to climate warming and heat induced health hazards (Mazdiyasni, et al.,2017). In the Indian context, the challenge of warming and its immediate consequences areimportant to take into consideration given the phenomenon of population growth, large share ofcoastal zones, growing urbanisation and so on. India has a share of approximately 52 percent 1
coastal land area in total land area of the country. Also the coastal zones of India share a large
proportion of total population of the country along with rapid population growth. According to a
recent report of the United Nations (United Nations, 2018), around 30 percent of total Indian
population stays in urban areas. It is further projected that by 2050 India will have 416 million
growths in the population of urban dwellers (United Nations, 2018). These are likely to pose athreat to the health status of Indian population, if the scenarios of climate change and warming
are considered. Incidences of extreme weather and climatic events like cold and heat waves,hailstorm, thunderstorm and dust storms, tropical cyclones, tidal waves, flooding, heavy rainfall,droughts have been experienced by India at various scales over the years (De, Dube, & Rao,2005). In the country, the overall number of incidences of heat waves has increased over theyears (De, Dube, & Rao, 2005) and some of the states having higher likelihood to get exposedto heat waves are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. But the number ofdeaths till 1999 due to heat waves is found to be highest in Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh andOrissa (De & Sinha Ray, 2000). Also the phenomenon of global warming is considered tointensify the threat of heat waves (De, Dube, & Rao, 2005). It is projected that, given the global
mean temperature limit of 2 ◦C above pre-industrial setting, by the end of 21st century, thenumber of heat waves will increase by 30 times the present status and that for the RCP 8.5
business-as-usual emissions situation is 2.5 times in India (Mishra, Mukherjee, Kumar, & Stone,2017). Mishra, Mukherjee, Kumar, & Stone (2017) further projected that the number of exposed
people to severe heat waves in India would inflate by more than 90 times by the end of 21st
century under the target of 2◦C low-warming. Therefore understanding the scale of the possible
threat and building up sufficient adaptive and mitigation strategies are vital.
This study mainly tries to understand how rising temperature and extreme heat is
impacting human health with reference to India. Section 2 gives a brief overview of how
climate change is impacting human health. Section 3 presents cases of extreme heat related
mortality and morbidity in Indian context. Section 4 makes a concluding remark by highlighting
the importance of coping mechanisms against the adverse heat related health impacts ofclimate change.
Warming and Human Health Nexus-A Brief Overview
Climate is a key driver in the promulgation of majority of the diseases, either impacting directly
or indirectly through interaction with the ecological systems. Temperature rise, which is one ofthe phenomenon of climate change, has a serious impact on public health (Rossati, 2017). The
impacts of climate change on human health are broadly classified into direct and indirect
impacts. The direct health impacts of climate change, mainly categorised as non - infectious
health impacts primarily relate to changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather
events pertaining to heat, drought, precipitation etc. On the other hand, the indirect health1

Estimated from Census of India, 2001 and UN, 2005. Human Development Report. International
Cooperation at a Crossroads: Aid, Trade and Security in an Unequal World.

74

impacts of climate change mainly categorised as infectious diseases relate to infectious agentslike protozoa, virus, bacteria and their associated vector organisms like mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies etc. They are devoid of thermostatic mechanisms and their reproduction and survival rates
are strongly affected by fluctuations in temperature (IPCC, 2007);(WHO, 2004).
The various human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardio-vascularmortality and respiratory illness to altered transmission of infectious diseases, malnutrition due
to crop failures (Patz J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, Holloway, & Foley, 2005) and so on. Immediate
impacts of rise in temperature consist of degradation of soil, loss of agricultural land
productivity, desertification, biodiversity loss, ecosystem damage, reduction in fresh-water
resources, ocean acidification, exhaustion of stratospheric ozone etc. (Rossati, 2017). Thesechanges in the ecosystem and the atmosphere result in numerous impacts on human health bycausing injuries at the time of natural disasters, malnutrition, heat wave induced mortality anddeterioration of mental health and these are considered to be more intensified in the case of low
income countries (Rossati, 2017). The outbreak of infectious diseases due to temperature rise
also adds to the vulnerability of population. Changes in the weather and climate patternpertaining to warming and subsequent alteration of ecosystem contribute to shift in disease
pattern through human migration, resistance to infections and so on (Khasnis & Nettleman,2005). Decline in potable water availability, access and quality triggered by various functionalchanges results in increased disease transmission. Warming effects are also likely to cause
increased incidences of vector-borne diseases like malaria, dengue, plague etc. (Khasnis &Nettleman, 2005).
In assessing certain direct impacts of rising temperature on human health, mention may
be made of air temperature which is the one of the several environmental factors that maintains
the body heat balance in human beings (Kjellstrom, Holmer, & Lemke, 2009). Increase intemperature therefore leads to a number of health hazards. Heat stress, which is a clinicalsyndrome, with fatal consequences at times is a result of being exposed to high temperature.
(Ramsey & Bernard, 2000);(Parsons, 2003). The consequences of heat stress induced healthimpacts include: reduction in work performance, increased number of accidents while working
as a result of tiredness and fatigue, reproductive problems in both males and females, strain ininternal human organs like heart, lung, kidney etc. (Dash & Kjellstrom, 2011);(Coris, Ramirez, &Van Durme, 2004). Also prolonged exposure to high temperature causes disorders like rashes,radiation burns, heat syncope, cramps, exhaustion etc. and more serious consequences likeheat stroke (Judge, 2003).
As per the estimates of The World Health Organization (WHO), (WHO, 2002),changes intemperature and precipitation due to anthropogenic climate change over the past 30 years,
already claimed 150,000 lives annually. The direct impacts of climate change through increased
number of extreme weather events like heat waves, more frequent and intense droughts, floods,
storms will be felt by millions of people around the world. Health risks are posed by exposures
to such extreme events (like heat waves, floods, droughts etc.) whose incidences andfrequencies are likely to increase due to climate change. There is growing evidence that theseeffects will pose unique problems and challenges for coastal zones, cities, large urban areas
and their growing population.
Extreme Heat Related Mortality and Morbidity: The Indian Scenario
In India, both mortality and morbidity have been affected due to extreme heat triggered bywarming effects. The older age groups of the population, urban poor people who live in slums
and squatter settlements, sun exposed workers are considered to be more vulnerable in thisregard(IPCC, 2001); (Akhtar, 2007). The mean summer temperature and incidences of heatwaves both have increased in India (Table 1). Between 1960 and 2009 the mean summer
75

temperature has increased by around 0.5 °C along with annual fluctuations in temperature andrise in number of heat waves (Mazdiyasni, et al., 2017).
Table 1: Change in decadal number of cases of heat waves in India: 1970-2016
Time period
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-20092010- 2016
Total

Number of heat wave cases in India
44
82
131
226
178
661

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Govt. of India.

Along with increase in number of heat waves incidences in India, accordingly number ofdeaths has increased too. For example, between 1979-1988 the rise in number of deaths due toheat waves increased to a large extent between 1999 and 2004 (Akhtar, 2007). Mazdiyasni, etal (Mazdiyasni, et al., 2017) estimated that rise in mean summer temperature in the country
between 1960 and 2009 can be held responsible for increase in the probability of occurrence ofheat induced mortality of greater than 100 people by 146 percent.
Between 1997 and 2011 the total number of accidental deaths due to heat stroke has
increased in India : the corresponding statistics being 383 in 1997, 720 in 2002 and 793 in 2011
(Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, 2011)although the percentage share of deaths
due to heat stroke to the total number of deaths has increased between 1997 and 2002 from
2.08% to 4.31% respectively (Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, 2011). As seen in
Table 2, more than 80 percent of deaths in India due to heat stroke corresponded to malepopulation. It might be due to the fact that male workforce has higher outdoor exposure in the
country compared to female. Thus measures need to be focused on reducing the heat induced
health hazard for occupational categories that are practiced outdoor. Among different states andunion territories of India, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh had comparatively
higher number of heat stroke deaths. But apart from these states, Haryana and Maharashtra
also face considerable risk to heat stroke if the percentage share of deaths due to heat strokes
to total number of death figures are seen (Table 2).
Conclusion
Coping against the adverse health impacts of climate change is an age old phenomenon. Sincetime immemorial, societies and human beings have coped to natural climate variability byaltering settlements, sustenance practices, and various other aspects of their economies andlifestyles. It is thus imperative to understand the new coping challenges posed by climatechange risks within the broader context of climate risk generally and against a backdrop ofrising vulnerability driven by other forces. Protection against adverse impacts of hightemperature requires formulation and adoption of various coping policy guidelines. Theseamong others include awareness about the threat, information on possible coping and adaptive
strategies, monitoring and decision making power in certain situations. Coping measures also
include actions like change in work schedule, temperature control (applicable for those where
outdoor work can be avoided) and various other engineering and technical measures. Academic
institutions may provide guidelines for systematic identification of heat stress intensity andpossible measures against it. In formulation of coping measures to deal with adverse impacts ofrising temperature, the policy guidelines must take into consideration the targeted population76

and locational characteristics for more effective impact. Thus, proper identification of thevulnerable group along with involvement of multiple stakeholders is of utmost importance forproper formulation and effective implementation of various coping mechanisms against adverse
health impacts of climate change.
Table 2: Number of Accidental Deaths by Heat Stroke in India in 2011
Percentage share to
States/UTs
Male
FemaleTotal
total number of deaths
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
0000Andhra Pradesh
73
18
91
20.1
Arunachal Pradesh
0
0
0
0
Assam
1
0
1
0.5
Bihar
62
24
86
5
Chandigarh
0000Chhattisgarh
2
1
3
1
Dadra and Nagar Haveli0000Daman and Diu
0
0
0
0
Delhi
6
0
6
0.4
Goa
0
0
0
0
Gujarat12
3
15
0.9
Haryana30
030
5.5
Himachal Pradesh
1
0
1
0.2
Jammu and Kashmir
1
0
1
0.3
Jharkhand
21
8
29
3.2
Karnataka
17
4
21
0.8
Kerala0000Lakshadweep0000Madhya Pradesh
16
8
24
3
Maharashtra
35
6
41
8.7
Manipur00
00
Meghalaya0000Mizoram0000Nagaland00
00
Odisha41
1051
4.5
Pondicherry00
00
Punjab
168
8
176
17.6
Rajasthan
30
7
37
1.4
Sikkim0000Tamil Nadu
0
1
1
0.2
Tripura60
6
2
Uttar Pradesh
62
42
104
5.5
Uttarakhand
0000West Bengal
42
27
69
2
India
626
167
793
3.3
Source: Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, 2011

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