Is it in Japan’s interest to abandon nuclear power?

ENDO Tetsuya
Senior Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs
Former Vice Chairman, Japan Atomic Energy Commission(Introduction)
Following the worldwide shock caused by the Fukushima accident, some Western countries haveswitched their energy policies away from nuclear power while Japan, the site of this accident, hasseen a growing push for denuclearization. Under pressure from this movement, Japan’s nuclear
power and related industries face an immediate crisis. Japan sits at a major crossroads, to put itmildly.
Japan is coping for the time being through power conservation efforts, but a full‐scale break with
nuclear power generation would have an enormous impact on Japan’s energy policy. It would also
have a significant bearing on Japan’s international commitments vis‐à‐vis global warming, andwould inevitably deal a fatal blow to Japan’s economy and its people’s quality of life.
Consequently, any discussion of denuclearization must be accompanied by dispassionate
consideration of the pertinent issues from the perspective of Japan’s national interest, including
the quantitative potential of alternative energies to replace nuclear power over the short, medium
and long term. It is dangerous to simply be swept along by the public mood. The broadconnectedness of nuclear power means that the impact of denuclearization would be extensive,
and it would be extremely difficult to make a return to nuclear power once it has been abandoned.
I earnestly hope that this paper will be of some small help in assessing the best course of action.

(The importance of nuclear power for Japan)
Energy and food are core elements in Japan’s economic activities and the lives of its citizens, andJapan has an extremely low rate of self‐sufficiency in both. In particular, its energy self‐sufficiency
ratio is a mere 4%, one of the lowest among developed countries. In addition, Japan as an island
country cannot access electric power transmissions from neighboring countries. Given thesecircumstances, nuclear power contributes greatly to Japan’s energy security. Nuclear power isdomestically produced for the most part, and Japan’s energy self‐sufficiency ratio inclusive ofnuclear power is nearly 20%. At the same time, the remarkable economic development ofemerging countries in Asia and elsewhere will likely spur a rapid rise in demand for fossil fuels,making nuclear power all the more important.

Another factor is the urgency of worldwide efforts to prevent global warming and the prominenceof nuclear power as an energy source that does not produce CO2 emissions. At the September
2009 UN Summit on Climate Change, (then) Prime Minister Hatoyama announced a medium‐termtarget for 2020 of cutting CO2 emissions by 25% from 1990 levels (a 30% reduction from 2005levels). Although this was a conditional declaration, the figure took on a life of its own as a defacto promise to the international community. It was expected that nine additional nuclear
reactors would need to be built and operated at a rate of 80% or higher to achieve this decrease.

(Japan’s nuclear power crisis)
However, the Fukushima accident had major repercussions worldwide (nuclear accidents know noborders). Countries around the globe are in accord on strengthening nuclear power plant safety
regulations both domestically and internationally and on insisting the IAEA should play a central
role in this, but opinions vary on what to do about nuclear power generation itself. Many
countries have adopted a posture of greater safety‐consciousness as they continue theirdevelopment of nuclear power facilities, while Germany, Italy and a few other Western countries
have been pressured by public sentiment into steering away from nuclear power altogether.
Public sentiment against nuclear power has also gained momentum in Japan and, with somemembers of the media as well as certain politicians jumping on the bandwagon, nuclear power
stands at a crossroads. Only 14 of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors are currently (as of August 23) inoperation, and restarting the offline reactors upon completion of periodic inspections will bepolitically difficult. The worst‐case scenario would be a shutdown of all nuclear power generation
throughout Japan next March.
The Basic Energy Plan just recently approved (June 2010) by the Cabinet as well as the associatedguidelines for actively promoting nuclear power have been scrapped, and the fate of nuclear
power plant exports as part of Japan’s New Growth Strategy has become uncertain. Vietnam,Turkey, Jordan and other countries considered potential export customers by Japan have sent
positive signals regarding cooperation with Japan, while Japan’s response has been less than
optimal. The future of the nuclear power agreements with Russia, Vietnam, Jordan and South
Korea submitted to the current session of the Diet for approval remains up in the air, andnegotiations on nuclear power agreements with Turkey, Brazil and other countries have essentiallybeen suspended. In all these instances, Japan has adopted an extremely passive posture toward
nuclear power both at home and abroad.

(Could Japan survive without nuclear power?)
Could Japan manage after abandoning nuclear power?
Should nuclear power, which accounts for about 30% of Japan’s overall electric power production,
disappear, what would serve as a substitute? It would likely be fossil fuels in the short term, but
this would lead to mounting import costs, more funds diverted to purchase emissions credits tocover greater CO2 emissions, and higher power generation costs. Forecasted rises in fossil fuelprices would only exacerbate the problem. Natural energy (wind power, solar power, geothermalpower, biomass, etc.) could become available over the medium and long term and would seem atfirst glance a popular choice with the public. However, Japan has been one of the slowest amongdeveloped countries to pursue natural energy, which currently represents only about 1% of its
total power generation, and efforts to develop natural energy sources should be undertaken infuture. Nevertheless, natural energy is not without its own problems relating to the reliability ofsupply (for example, the average usage rate of solar power in Japan is about 12% and the annual
usage rate for wind power is 26%), the difficulty of quantitative expansion, energy economy, andthe quality of the power generated (including problems of system stability).
Accordingly, natural energy might be useful as a dispersed and supplementary power source but it
is unreasonable to expect it to serve as the primary base‐load source of electricity for a large‐scaleeconomy. Simply demanding that nuclear power be replaced by natural energy is pointless;instead, we need quantitative analyses, progress schedules and system designs. Unwarrantedchanges in energy policy and calls for such changes can only bring about major disruptions in ourcountry’s economic activities and the lives of its people, with ultimately fatal consequences for theJapanese economy.
What do proponents of denuclearization intend to do about the export of nuclear power plants, amatter relevant to Japan’s international ties? What about the de facto international restrictions
on CO2 emissions put in place to prevent global warming? Will Japan back out and claim “forcemajeure”? All of these issues will affect the international community’s trust in Japan.
Abandoning nuclear power would entail withdrawing from the “nuclear fuel cycle,” one ofresource‐poor Japan’s most important energy policies, implemented consistently since the earliest
days of nuclear power generation. With the nuclear fuel cycle dependent on accumulated
experience and trained personnel, any withdrawal would make it extremely difficult to restart thecycle. Very careful deliberations are needed to assess the wisdom of withdrawal.

(Conclusion)
As a former member of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, I might appear to be serving myown interests here, but I believe that an objective look at Japan’s geopolitical situation and thescale of its economy as well as quantitative assessments of the issues concerned will show thatabandoning nuclear power is an unreasonable choice for Japan. Instead, I contend that the mostpractical measures for Japan to protect its national interests are to continue its use of nuclearpower (expanding nuclear power if possible) while conducting thorough safety reviews, actively
develop natural energy sources in parallel, and determine the best mix of all forms of energy.
Denuclearization is not a path down which Japan should go.