IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Pt db
Presentedby:
Dr. Joni Jupesta
ASEAN Centre for EnergyTH
THE 4 ASEAN

ENERGY OUTLOOK

Symposium on Sustainable Power
Supply Mix in the Future,
20 November 2015,
2015 Bangkok,
Bangkok Thailand

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

O
OBJECTIVESCS AND PROGRESS
OG SS
Main Objectives:j
1. to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends andchallenges being faced by the region up to the year 2035,
2. to strongly involve all ASEAN Member States (AMS) in the process.
Progress:
FirstFi t Phase
PhFebruary-May 2015
1. General discussion about ppotential
possibilities of energy demand
forecasting for the AEO4 and futureOutlooks
2 Scenario definition BAU scenario /2.
Advancing Policy scenario
3. 1st AMS Workshop, February 2015

SecondSd Phase
PhMay-June 2015

Third Phase
June-September 2015

1 Finalization of the BAU and APS
1.
scenarios
2. Modification of the national
pof themodels and implementation
country results
3. 2nd AMS Workshop, May 2015

1. Final review of the regionalmodels
2. Internal data review and result
discussions
3. Development
pof analysis
ychapters for the AEO4
4. 3rd ACE Workshop,September 2015

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

TABLE OFO COCONTENT
1. Methodology and Scenario Definitions
2. Key Figures and Assumptions
3. ASEAN Energy Demand and Supply Outlook
4. Challenges and Key messages for ASEAN Energy
PolicyIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

APPROACH
O C O
OF 4AEOO• Cooperative approach: national ASEAN officials
developed country projections and included knowledge
on national policies and projections• Harmonized approach: The ASEAN Centre for Energy
ACE and Fraunhofer guided country representatives inthe development
pof national models• Controlled approach: Fraunhofer developed a regionalmodel to countercheck and discuss findings

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

METHODOLOGYO O OG AND SCSCENARIOSOS Business as Usual Scenario (BAU): pastdevelopments continue in absence of influential
modifications while still taking into consideration
iimpacts
t ini activity
ti it changesh Advancing Policies Scenario (APS): successpof stronger
gpolicies aspful implementation
defined by the AMS’ official targets forrenewable energy and energy efficiency.
 Both scenarios based on AMS socio-economic and policy framework assumptions.
 Econometric top-down as well as bottom-upmodels
d l ffor eachh AMS + regional
il modeld lDemand(BAU)

Demand(APS)

Demand(Implicationon targetdiscussion)IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

MODELLINGOGOOF THE 4AEO
O
Primary energy requirements by fuelsoil, coal, natural gas, biomass, electricity

PrimaryPi
ffuelsl production,diimports and exports

Power generation
Pisystem

Oil Refineries
R fiiandd primaryifuels transformation

Final energy demand by sectors
Industry, transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, non energy uses

Top‐down modeling:

Bottom‐up
Bottomup hybrid modeling:

Brunei, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Indonesia and Vietnam

Aggregatedd socio‐economic assumptions:
GDP growth, population growth, urbanization development, crude oil price development,
etc.

Source: 4AEOIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

KEY FIGURESGS
GDP growth 2000‐2013:
5.1%
Remarkable sustained growth ratepopulation: 615 million
area: 4,480,106 km²
8.5 % of world´s population
56% living in rural areas

GDP pper capita:p2,250 USDHigh disparity within the region

coal and lignite reserves
23 billionb lltones
Over 4.1 % of world´s coal reserves
3.4 % of world´s natural gas reserves

electricity consumption: 1477
kWh/cap
About half of world´s averageenergygy intensity:
y0.435 koe/ USD 05
About half of world´s average

Source: ASEAN, Enerdata, World BankIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

KEY ASSUMPTIONSSSO S• 6.1% GDP annual average growth rate
between 2013 and 2035

Strongly growingeconomy• By 2035 ASEAN population is 762 million inhabitants(yearly average growth rate of 1% per annum)• Oil prices are expected to be at 130 USD2012
per barrel in 2035

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

TOTALO
PRIMARY ENERGYG SUPPLY
S
1,800
,
1,600
1,400

Mtoe

1,200

TPES to increase by factor 2.8
Coal share to increase (20 to 33%)
APS -13%,APS:
13% RE excll BM 20%

1,000800600400200‐ActualBAU2013CoalAPS

BAU

2020

Oil

Natural gas

APS

BAU

2025

Nuclear

Hydro

APS

BAU

2030

Geothermal

Others Renewables

APS
2035

Biomass
Source: AEO4

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ELECTRICITY
CCGGENERATIONO
3,500,

Electricity strongly coal based
APS: -13%, RE 23%

3,000

2 500
2,500

TWh

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

‐Actual

BAU

2013

Coal

APS
2020

Oil

Natural gas

BAU

APS
2025

Nuclear

BAU

APS
2030

Hydro

Geothermal

BAU

APS
2035

Other Renewables
Source: AEO4

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

INSTALLEDSCCAPACITY
CCapacities to be
more than tripled!
Secure investments

Shares of RE Technologies (APS)
100%
90%
80%%
70%
60%
50%
40%

RE: hydro dominant
but decreasing share30%
20%
10%0%
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Biomass

HydroWindSolarGeothermal

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ASEAN COAL PRODUCTION AND NET TRADE
700.
600.
500.

Mttce per yearr

400.
300.
200.
100100.
20132015202020252030

N t Trade
NetT d BAU

P d ti APS
Production

N t TradeNet
T d APS

-100.
-200.
-300.
P d ti BAU
Production

2035

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ASEAN COAL RESOURCE DEPLETION(FOR BAUAND APS)
30

billion m
metric tons

2520

BAU

15APS
105-20132015

2020

2025

20302035

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ENERGY INTENSITYDEVELOPMENT

1 60
1.60

ASEAN

1.40

Indonesia
Philippines

Index 199
94=1

1.20

VietnamThailand

1.00

South Korea
Singapore

0.80

Myanmar
Malaysia

0.60

Lao PDR
Cambodia

0.40

China
Brunei

0 20
0.20

E
European
U iUnion
North America

0.001994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: EnerdataIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

4AEO:O ENERGYG INTENSITY
S120%

2005 leveel = 100%

100%

BAU
80%
60%

Energy intensity has already started to drop in ASEAN
and will further drop in both scenarios(APS roughly in line with APAEC target -40%)

40%
20%

APS

0%
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: AEO4

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ENERGY INTENSITIES IN OTHERREGIONS
1990-2013• China -56%
• North America -35%
• Europe -34%

2013-2035
Energy intensity development notunrealistic compared to otherregions. Taking China an evenstronger decrease is feasible• South Korea -11%
11%
• ASEAN +8%• ASEAN 4AEO BAU -33%
• ASEAN 4AEO APS -41%

Source: Enerdata, 4AEOIEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

FINAL ENERGYG CONSUMPTION
CO SO
1,200

1,000

Mtoe

800

600

400

200

‐Actual

BAU

APS

2013

2020

Industry

Transportation

BAU

APS

BAU

2025

Residential

APS
2030

Commercial

Others

BAU

APS
2035

Non‐energy use
Source: AEO4

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

4AEO:
O C
CHALLENGES
G S• (Local and global) Environment: growth in use of coal
• Supply security: intensive use of gas/oil/coal reserves.
Rising imports• Strongly rising electricity demand as a limitation toeconomic growth

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

4AEO:O KEY MESSAGESSS G S

DemandDd challenge:h ll
EExportt ratios
ti coal/gas/oill// il lesslffavourable,
bl supplyl security
it problems,
blresource depletion; economic and environmental impacts



Major indicators (electricity/energy/CO2 per capita) approaching world average(2035: 5 tonnes CO2 per capita, electricity about 4000 kWh/capita). Increasing internationalpressure

BAU falls well short to achieve APAEC energy efficiency target, however:•••

APS comes close to EE target
Energy intensity started to decrease (economic growth, EE policies)
First (fragmented) national policies have led to RE penetration

Vast untapped RE/EE potential by 2035. Opportunity for high local manufacturing
shares and competitive electricity generation

Enhancing national EE/RES policies through mutual policy learning/coordination,
learning/coordination
regional market integration and interconnections helps preventing system inefficiencies
and reduce system costs

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

THANK YOUO

This work is a joint output of the ASEAN Centre of Energy (ACE) with the National Working Group by 10 ASEAN Member States
under directives of Regional
gEnergygy Policy
y and Planningg Sub-Sector Network ((REPP-SSN),), with support
pp of DeutscheGesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) through the Renewable Energy Support Programme for ASEAN (ASEANRESP), and expert consultancy with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (FhG ISI).
Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp