"CEAC Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on the concept of an East AsianCommunity, but they do not represent the views ofCEAC as an institution.

February 13, 2008

Will the U.S.-Japan Alliance Become Dispensable?
SUZUKI Keisuke
The president of South Korea changed as will the presidents of Taiwan and theU.S. As a result, significant changes in the international political environment that
directly affect the basis of Japan’s geopolitical condition such as the nature of theU.S.-Japan alliance, the North Korea issue, and the Taiwan issue can be expected tooccur.
Judging by the movement so far, the change in Korean presidency appears tobe having a positive effect on Japan-Korea relations and regional stability. At thepresent juncture, it seems Japan and Korea can become regional partners sharing very
similar values, and with close levels of economic development. If the bilateralrelationship can move forward in a stable manner, that will be very important for East
Asia politically and economically.
On the other hand, any movement on the Taiwan issue needs to be closely
watched. Of course, it is unlikely there will be any dramatic changes. However, fromthe point that the stable situation of Taiwan Straits with the balance of power between
China and Taiwan is a lifeline for Japan, careful analysis will be needed of changes intheir relations with their increasing economic mutual interdependence and changes in
the military balance. From the short-term viewpoint, the major focus is certainly thepresidential election, and it is unclear at the present time what the effect of thepresidential election of the landslide victory of the Kuomintang in the island'sparliamentary election will be. For Japan, the risks must be urgently analyzed withregard to any change which inevitably occurred from the current CHEN Shui-bianadministration.
Under the LEE Teng-hui administration and the CHEN administration, though
there was a difference in their stance toward Japan, the strategic importance of Japan toTaiwan has been increasing. The Pro-Japan policy under the LEE administration and alittle bit “cold” relationship with the U.S. under the CHEN administration, such as theU.S.-Korea relationship, were the drivers of this situation, but that situation will now
certainly change. Of course at the present time, it is unclear what direction the next U.S.
government will take with its strategy for Asia, or even whether the U.S. will keep its
commitment for this region.
With the Cold War over, China increasing its economic power, South Korea andTaiwan becoming economically stronger, the U.S.-Japan alliance is now slowly in theprocess of changing to become something that is not indispensable but more of adependent variable, or relative element with regard to the international situation in theEast Asia. Of course, in the current situation where China is still a state run by a

one-party dictatorship and continues to pose a security and economic threat to the U.S.,
the possibility of the value of the U.S.-Japan alliance becoming dramatically irrelevant
is still low. However, one should be aware that the alliance cannot be taken for granted,
and from now on assessing the geopolitical risks that exist in East Asia, and having asound sense of which direction to go with things will be of crucial importance to Japan.
(This is the English translation of an article written by Mr. SUZUKI Keisuke, Memberof the House of Representatives (LDP), which originally appeared on the BBS“Hyakka-Somei” of CEAC on January 19, 2008.)