IEEJ: November 2010

Energy Technology
Perspectives 2010
IEEJ, Tokyo
4 November 2010
Dr Peter Taylor
Head, Energy Technology Policy Division© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

The context
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

 Need a global energy technology revolution tomeet climate change and energy security
challenges.

 Some early signs of progress, but much moreneeds to be done.

 Which technologies can play a role?
 What are the costs and benefits?
 What policies are needed?

© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Gt CO2Global energy-related CO2 emissions inthe Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
6050

Other40

BuildingsTransport30Industry
20

Other transformation
Power generation

1002007

2030

2050

Baseline

2030

2050

BLUE Map

Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but inthe BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors
reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Gt CO2

Key technologies for reducing global
CO2 emissions
6055

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

50CCS 19%
Renewables 17%4540

Nuclear 6%35
Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 5%
End‐use fuel switching 15%30252015

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

105WEO 2009 450 ppm caseEnd‐use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%

ETP2010 analysis

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

A wide range of technologies will be necessary toreduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

MtoePrimary energy demand by fuel and byscenario
8 000

2007

7 000Baseline 2050

BLUE Map 2050

6 000
5 000
4 000

‐27%
‐36%

3 000
2 000
1 0000

By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than
today under the BLUE Map scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Dollars per barrel

Crude oil price150125100
75502501970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Impact of OECD CO2 price on costs for crude oil:2020 ( 50 USD/t): 90+21 =111 USD/bbl
2030 (110 USD/t): 90+43 =133 USD/bbl
2050 (175 USD/t): 70+73 =143 USD/bbl© OECD/IEA - 2010

Real ($2008) Baseline
Scenario

Real ($2008)
BLUE Map Scenario

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

PWh

Decarbonising the power sector –a new age of electrification?
50
Other

45Solar

40

Wind

35

Biomass+CCS

30

Biomass and waste
Hydro

25

Nuclear20

Natural gas+CCS

15

Natural gas
Oil10

Coal+CCS

5

Coal02007© OECD/IEA - 2010

Baseline 2050

BLUE Map2050

BLUE High BLUE High Ren
Nuclear 2050
2050

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels withCCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity
sector.

IEEJ: November 2010

Average annual electricity capacity
additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Present rate

Gap to reach BLUE Map

Coal‐fired with CCS

35 plants (500 MW)

Gas‐fired with CCS

20 plants (500 MW)
30 plants (1 000 MW)

NuclearHistorical highHydro

2/3 of Three Gorges Dam

Biomass plants

200 plants (50 MW)

Wind‐onshore

12 000 turbines (4 MW)

Wind‐offshore

3 600 turbines (4 MW)

Geothermal

45 units (100 MW)

Solar PV

325 million m 2 solar panels

Solar CSP

55 CSP plants (250 MW)
01020304050

GW/ yrAnnual rates of investment in many low-carbon
technologies must be massively increased fromtoday’s levels.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Environmental co-impacts of electricity
generation technologies
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Life Cycle Impacts
EnergyTechnologies(Pre‐ and Post‐Generation)

Power Generation Impacts

AirAirCoal ‐ USCWater

LandWaterLand

Pos i ti vePos i ti ve

Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i n

Coal ‐ CCS

Nega ti ve

Nega ti ve

Nega ti ve

Coal ‐ IGCC

Mi ni ma l

Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i n

Mi ni ma l

NGCC

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

NuclearVa ri a bl e /Uncerta i n
Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i n

Mi ni ma l

Mi ni ma l

0.622

Nega ti ve

Mi ni ma l

0.142

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Mi ni ma l0.708

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

0.403

Pos i ti ve

Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i n

Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i n

Pos i ti ve

Nega ti ve

Pos i ti ve

0.005

Solar ‐ CSP

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Nega ti ve

Mi ni ma l

0.017

Solar ‐ PV

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Mi ni ma l

0.009

Pos i ti ve

Va ri a bl e /Uncerta i nWind

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Pos i ti ve

Most renewable technologies have positiveenvironmental co-impacts.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

t/MWh0.777

Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below

Coal ‐ Biomass

CO2Emissions

0.002

IEEJ: November 2010

Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050
Greater integration ofrenewables

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Gt CO2 / yr

2.50
2.25

Facilitation of electric vehicles
and plug‐in electric vehicles

2.00
0.34‐ 0.69

1.75

Energy savings from peak loadmanagement

1.50
1.25

0.31‐ 0.62
0.00‐ 0.01

1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25

0.07‐ 0.27

Continuous commissioning ofservice sector loads
Accelerated deployment ofenergy efficiency programs

0.01‐ 0.05
Reduced line losses (voltagecontrol)

0.03‐ 0.25

Direct feedback on energy usage

0.09‐ 0.27

0.00
Direct reductions

Enabled reductions

Smart grids allow better management of the grid and canfacilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies,
such as renewables and electric vehicles.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

200‐20‐40

10% discount40

Residential

3% discount60

Commercial

Total

UndiscountedUSD trillion (2010‐2050)

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Investment

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010

Fuel savings

Additional investment and fuelsavings, 2010-2050

TransportIndustry
Power distribution
Power transmission
Power generation‐60

Biomass and waste‐80

Natural gas‐100Oil‐120‐140© OECD/IEA - 2010

Coal

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in theBLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional
investment required.

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Mtoe

OECD and non-OECD primary energy
demand in the Baseline scenario
16 000
14 000Non‐OECD

12 000OECD

10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
2007

Baseline
2015

Baseline
2030

Baseline
2050

Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is
projected to increase much faster than in OECD
countries in the Baseline scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Gt CO2

World energy-related CO2 emissions
abatement by region
60
55

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

50

Other Non‐OECD 19%
Other OME 14%

45

India 12%4035

China 27%

30

Other OECD 10%25OECD Europe 7%

2015BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

United States 11%

105WEO 2009 450 ppm case

ETP2010 analysis

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions inenergy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD
countries.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

Regional Implications

IEEJ: November 2010

CO2 emissions by region/country
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Regions/countries have very different CO2 trends
under both Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios. Per
capita CO2 emissions converge substantially underBLUE Map.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Primary energy demand by fuel and byscenario
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

Under the BLUE Map scenario fossil fuel demand
growth is offset by the growth in nuclear power andthe use of renewable energy.

IEEJ: November 2010

Decarbonisation of power generation
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Decarbonising the power sector requires all countries todramatically change their generation mix.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Direct energy and process CO2emissions in industry by sector
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Energy efficiency and CCS are the two most importantabatement options in industry.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

CO2 emissions reduction in thebuildings sector
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

Decarbonisation of the electricity sector contributes twothirds to emissions reduction in the buildings sector.

IEEJ: November 2010

Passenger light-duty vehicles sales bytechnology BLUE Map scenarios
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

The BLUE Map scenario envisions rapid successive
introduction of new generations of advanced vehicles
in all major economies.

IEEJ: November 2010

Technology policies
 Carbon pricing is important, but should be
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

complemented by other policies

 Policies must be tailored to the technology’s

stage of development and reflect good designprinciples

 Public RD&D spending must at least double
 Governments need to implement best practices

in energy RD&D

 A number of enabling actions are also needed: Private sector leadership Expanded human capacity
 Greater government outreach and planning on

infrastructure needs
 Expanded, more effective international
collaboration© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Policies for supporting low-carbon
technologies
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

Government support policies need to beappropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technologicaldevelopment.

IEEJ: November 2010

CCS Roadmap
12,000ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010

8,000
Captured CO2 (MtCO2/yr)

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

10,0006,000

2050
3,400 projects
OECD (35%)
Non‐OECD (65%)

OECD PACIFICUSAOTHER OECD N AM
OECD EUROPE
ODA
ME
INDIA
EEU + FSU
CSA
CHINA
AFR

2040
2,100 projects
OECD (40%)
Non‐OECD (60%)

2030
850 projects
OECD (49%)
Non‐OECD (51%)

4,000

2,000

2015
18 projects
OECD (72%)
Non‐OECD (28%)

2020
100 projects
OECD (50%)
Non‐OECD (50%)

02010© OECD/IEA - 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

More than 3000 CCS plants are needed by 2050 underthe BLUE Map scenario

IEEJ: November 2010

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

140040%120035%30%

1000

25%
80020%
600
15%
400

10%

2005%

00%

Share of global electricity production

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010

Installed capacity GW

Nuclear Energy Roadmap
Africa & Middle
East
Economies inTransition
Other Developing
Asia
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
Latin America
US & CanadaIndia
China
BLUE Map

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Nuclear is a proven technology and can play animportant role in a low-carbon strategy© OECD/IEA - 2010

BLUE High Nuclear

IEEJ: November 2010

Projected electric and plug-in
hybrid vehicle sales
9.0
CanadaENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010

7.0

EV + PHEV Sales (millions)

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

8.0

6.0

Austria
IrelandNetherlands
SwedenPortugal

5.0

UK
Germany

4.0
3.0
2.0

FranceKorea
Japan
Spain
United States

1.0

China

0.0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales
growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).

© OECD/IEA - 2010

EV / PHEV sales could reach nearly eight million
vehicles by 2020

IEEJ: November 2010

International Low-carbon Energy
Technology Platform
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

The firstgreen…much moreneeds
to shoots
be doneof an energy technology revolution…
46 GW of PV
per year
until 2050

sev
In

Over 1 billion plug‐inand electric vehicles
in 2050Lighting market
dominated byLEDs in 2050

Increase funding by
2 to 5 timescurrent levels

80 large scale
integrated plants
being developed

Global sales ofCFLs @ 3500
million/yr

1/3 funding
increase
between2005 and 2008

Carbon captureand storage

Energyefficiency

Research anddevelopment

Over 3 000 plants
operational by2050

st
ntme

6 GW of PV
installed in 2009

Plans for 8 million
hybrid andelectric vehicles
by 2020

Renewables

Transport© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050Thank Youwww.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050© OECD/IEA - 2010ANNEX

IEEJ: November 2010

GDP projections
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050(% per year based on purchasing power parity)© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Oil, gas and coal price assumptions
Baseline Scenarios (in USD per unit)
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

BLUE Scenarios (in USD per unit)© OECD/IEA - 2010

IEEJ: November 2010

Carbon prices in the BLUE Map
scenario
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

USD / t CO22020

2030

2050

OECD50110175

Non-OECD

065175© OECD/IEA - 2010

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp