Megatrends Shaping Our Future
新たな時代を見据えて

Rebecca Tanaka
James Middleton
Norio Shimamura

Preface
Periodically during the course of history, the world has changed in dramatic andfundamental ways. These changes occur as a result of megatrends in science, technology,
or social attitudes and ways of thinking. One such change occurred when steam-poweredengines and machinery for manufacturing were developed. This was a megatrend thattransformed formerly agriculture-based nations into industrialized societies. The maintype of work in society changed as did the lifestyles of millions of people.
Another major change occurred when advanced countries shifted from having mainly
manufacturing-based economies to ones where information gathering, processing andstoring were the primary types of work. This was the IT Era which brought us personal
computers, cellular phones, digital cameras, and social networking sites such as Twitterand Facebook.
The world as we know it today is on the brink of new and profound changes. Experts ineach of these megatrend areas predict that the changes will be so significant that the very
fabric and rhythm of life will be altered. The authors of Megatrends Shaping Our Future
believe that students will benefit tremendously from learning about the megatrends thatare currently gaining momentum and shaping the world they will live in.
The first chapter of this book explains what megatrends are, how they differ frompassing fads and sub-trends, and why understanding them can benefit students making
life and career choices. The remaining 19 essays cover a range of disciplines including
health care, the environment, business, lifestyle, technology, and society. They are written
by professors who have extensively researched each megatrend and who also understandwhat university students are cognizant of and find interesting. Special care has been taken
to connect the impact of each megatrend to life in Asia, the expected next center of world
power.
The content of the text is designed to create a bridge between authentic readingmaterials and intermediate second-language texts. The essays are written to be somewhat
challenging, and they are comprehensively supported by notes and explanations inJapanese. I recommend that you read the notes contained in each chapter to deepen yourunderstanding of the content.
I would like to acknowledge my dedicated co-authors, Norio Shimamura of Chuo
University for his diligence in explaining new and challenging concepts and James
Middleton of Sakushin University for his commitment to exploring the importance of
scientific and environmental impacts on our world, particularly those related to his belovediocean. The three of us also extend many thanks to the Seibido team who painstakingly
guided us in creating accurate and — we hope — enlightening essays.
The topics discussed in this book are all in various stages of development as megatrends.
This means that they may or may not progress as predicted by the experts who originallywrote about them. My fellow authors and I have diligently tried to frame the coming changes
in such a way as to give you an idea of what you are likely to experience in the coming 15 to
20 years. However, we ask for your understanding should any of these megatrends change
course.
Our world is a fluid, ever-changing wonder. I hope you will enjoy learning more about
it and improve your English in the process.
Rebecca Tanaka

ii

はしがき
数年前から何となく感じていましたが、近ごろ強く認識させられたことがあります。
このことと英語学習を結びつけて考えたことはなかったのですが、学生と接していて、はたと思い当たりました。それは、大部分の学生にとって、英語を学ぶ意欲とか動機づけになるものが、どうも日本の状況、特に経済力や国力の現状にかなり左右されるのではないかという確信です。
端的に申しますと、今どきの学生は英語を用いて自己の活躍の場を広げようとする意
志が希薄に思えます。彼らは確かに豊かな時代に暮らしていますが、物心がついてから
日本の右肩上がりの経済を一度も味わったことがありません。かつては外国を旅したい、あるいは留学したいという学生がたくさんいましたが、昨今では、経済事情があるにせよ、
そういう学生をほとんど見かけなくなりました。外国勤務を望まない外務省の若手官僚が増えているとも聞きます。いくら不況といっても、格安で海外へ行ける時代です。多感な青春時代に外国の地を旅すれば、語学学習をはじめ、自分の方向性と日本について考える良い機会になるでしょう。
近ごろの若者のことを「縮み思考の世代」と呼ぶらしいのですが、日本にいてなんとかやっていければそれに越したことはない、と考える向きが増えています。そう思い込んでいる学生に、英語習得の意欲が湧いてこないのは分かる気がします。学生たちの間でもマイボトルが流行っています。環境への配慮とか節約志向が分からないではないですが、彼らが出掛けに好みの飲料を注ぐボトルの穴が、彼らが覗いている小さな世界を象徴しているようで、心配にもなります。
ところが、彼らの思惑とは裏腹に、世の中は逆方向に向かっています。今年は英語習
得を促す事例が２つニュースになりました。ひとつは数年後に英語を「社内の公用（共通）語」にすると宣言した上場企業がいくつか現れたことです。内需の伸びが期待できない以上、海外に市場を求める企業が増えていますが、それと連動した動きなのでしょう。次に、新卒採用の際に、某大手家電メーカーのように来年度採用予定者の８割に当る 1,100 人を海外で採用する企業が出てきたことです。海外市場に活路を見出そうとする企業にとって、英語とその国の母語を話す人材は魅力です。これは日本の新卒者の立場から見れば、就職市場が狭まることに他なりません。商品とお金に続き、人材の登用をもって、グローバル化の時代が完成の域に達したということなのでしょう。
こう考えると、学生諸氏の奮起を願うのみですが、本書の Megatrends Shaping Our
Future は、英語に対する適正も分からず、学習の動機や方向づけも流動的な学生に、大学教育として正当化できる知的内容をもって応えようと編纂されました。本書を通して世界の潮流に目を向け、自分が身を置いている世界を確認し、近い将来進むことになる世界を展望する機会になれば、この上ない喜びです。そして、本書の世界を理解する読解力が身につけば、英語の世界に投げ出されたとしても、順応できるだけの基礎力は十分に備わったと言えるでしょう。
本書の作成に当たり、Rebecca Tanaka、James Middleton 両氏と企画の段階から綿密に打ち合わせ、原稿の細部に至るまで検討を重ねました。彼らの日本の英語教育への深い洞察がなければ、本書の上梓はおぼつかなかったでしょう。両氏にこの場を借りて深く感謝したい。
2010 年 8 月猛暑日に処暑の声を聞きつつ

編著者
iii

Table of Contents
Chapter 1

Megatrends: What Do They Mean to You?���������������������������������������������� 1

Chapter 2

Megatrends in Health
Health Care Megatrends: How Well Can Your Doctor Play Video
Games��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6

未来の指標たるメガトレンドの意義を考える

未来の医療現場を展望する

Chapter 3

Metabolic Syndrome: An Unwanted Megatrend���������������������������������� 11

Chapter 4

The Globalization of Food: Advantages and Disadvantages���������������� 16

Chapter 5

Environmental Megatrends
The Green Movement: From Fringe to Mainstream����������������������������� 21

メタボという歓迎されざるメガトレンドにどう向き合うか
食の国際化の功罪を考察すると

環境保護運動の視点から経済を見据える

Chapter 6

Global Warming: Get Ready to Mitigate and Adapt����������������������������� 26

Chapter 7

Deadly Natural Disasters: Dealing with Tsunamis������������������������������� 31

Chapter 8

Business Megatrends
Acceleration: Fast Forward is Getting Faster���������������������������������������� 36

Chapter 9

地球温暖化とうまく付き合うには津波の被害を繰り返さないために加速というメガトレンドが意味するもの

Personalization: A Megatrend that is Reshaping Business ������������������ 41
個性化とミクロマーケティングを考える

Chapter 10 Rethinking Regulation: Finance after the Subprime Loan
Meltdown������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 46
サブプライムローン危機をどう捉えるか

iv

Lifestyle Megatrends
Chapter 11 Urbanization: The Pros and Cons���������������������������������������������������������� 51
都市化が抱える問題を検証する

Chapter 12 Depopulation: Vanishing Villages in Rural Japan��������������������������������� 56
人口減少と過疎化から日本の現状を直視する

Chapter 13 Megacities: What the Future May Look Like���������������������������������������� 61
超巨大都市の可能性―その光と影を吟味する

Megatrends in Technology
Chapter 14 Nanotechnology: Unbelievable Changes are in the Works������������������ 66
夢の技術、
ナノテクノロジーの秘密に迫る

Chapter 15 Flying Cars: Will They Solve Tomorrow’s Transportation
Problems?������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 71
はたして空飛ぶ自動車の時代は来るのだろうか？

Chapter 16 Wind Power: Megawatts Become a Megatrend������������������������������������ 76
風力発電はエネルギー問題の切り札になれるのか？

Chapter 17 Androids: The Human-looking Part of the Robotics Megatrend��������� 81
ロボット技術の現状から未来の社会を垣間見るとSocietal Megatrends
Chapter 18 The Aging Society: Much More than a Family Concern���������������������� 86
世界はなぜ日本の高齢化社会に注目するのか

Chapter 19 Shifts in Power: Phenomenon or Megatrend?��������������������������������������� 91
現象かメガトレンドか？ パワー・シフトの本質を見抜く

Chapter 20 Networks and Regionalism: A Whole New World Order��������������������� 96
世界の新秩序の進展局面を展望する

v

Chapter

1

Megatrends: What Do They Mean to You?
TOPIC AWARENESS
1� Have you seen the word megatrend before? Where have you seen it?
2� What do you think the prefix mega- means? How might it be used on a
pizza menu?
3� Which of these do you think might be a megatrend: globalization of
trade, body piercing, or recycling? Why do you think so?

WORDS AND PHRASES
Choose the word(s) from the list below with the same meaning as the underlined wordin each sentence.
1. The discussion has transformed (________________) my opinion.
2. My primary (________________) goal is to get a permanent job.
3. The skeptics (________________) disagreed with every idea that the environmental committee presented.
4. The device (________________) helped villages in Africa to get water.
5. Development of small, less costly computers triggered (________________)
the Information Technology (IT) Age.
main

READINGmachinechangedset in motion

people who doubt
1 - 2~6

CD
What are megatrends? They are sweeping changes that begin slowly
1 1-02and transform how people think, work, and live for decades. Some are global
and others regional. Some are triggered by new technology, others by socialchanges. They last longer than fads such as tattoos or political phenomena
such as celebrity candidates being elected to parliament. One example of atechnology megatrend is information technology (IT). Development of U.S.
military computer networks paved the way for the Internet and resulted inrevolutionary business and social possibilities. The IT megatrend also created
sub-trends such as the web-page design industry that resulted in thousands of1

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new jobs and lifestyle changes for millions of people.

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2 C D Sub-trends are smaller-scale developments that begin because of changes
created by broader megatrends. You might think of a megatrend as a tree trunkand sub-trends as the individual branches that grow from it. For example,
digital technology was a primary megatrend which resulted in the sub-trendsof laptop and notebook computers as well as digital devices such as iPhones anddigital cameras. Digital cameras in turn made YouTube, Facebook, and othersocial networking sites possible. Megatrends and sub-trends are so importantthat analysts who study the future watch them carefully since recognizing
opportunities and possible negative results is vital for business success.
CD
What kind of negative impacts
3 1-03might megatrends in technology
cause? Existing industries may
experience severe declines in sales oreven bankruptcy. For example, when
personal computers were introducedin the late 1980s, executives at
Smith Corona, a leading typewritercompany, watched their sales
plummet. Skeptics at Smith Corona
Once used when writing great novels before personal
doubted that personal computers computers took over the market, a Corona typewriter
would replace typewriters, so they is displayed on a table in a room of the home of late
waited until 1991 to introduce U.S. Nobel Prize-winning author Ernest Hemingway
at Finca Vigia in Havana on June 2, 2010.
personal computers, which was toolate. Company executives filed for bankruptcy in 1995. To avoid negative
consequences, companies must understand technology-driven megatrends andact quickly, because technological changes seldom reverse.

4 C D Although technological changes seldom reverse, it is not necessarily
true for megatrends that are triggered by social changes. When major changes
in society occur that force people to think and act differently, they may bepermanent, or they may last for only a generation or two. The aging society
is one example. Today, the population aged 65 and above is increasing inpostindustrial countries worldwide, forcing governments, businesses, andfamilies to change in order to care for the large number of senior citizens.
CD
Governments are adjusting pension and health care systems to ensure
5 1-04that elderly people will have enough money and medical care. Pharmaceutical2

Chapter 1 Megatrends: What Do They Mean to You?

companies have begun to develop drugs that are needed or wanted by seniors.
The elder-care industry is increasing. Developers are building retirement
homes and new businesses are springing up to address the needs of this large
segment of the population. Families are adjusting their lifestyles and budgets
to care for elderly relatives, too. However, the aging society megatrend may
end in a generation or two.
6 C D In Japan, for example, the percentage of the population aged 0 to 14
years-old was 13.5 percent in 2009 while those 65 and over totaled 22.2 percent.
Whether this megatrend continues depends on the number of children that areborn in the next generation. Compared to technology-driven megatrends, socialchanges have a greater possibility of reversing. Understanding megatrends,
therefore, is vital for business planning, government policy making, andindividual life choices, which is why books about megatrends are popular.
CDJohn Naisbitt coined the word megatrends in his bestseller, Megatrends:
7 1-05Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, in which he predicted the beginningof the Information Age. Subsequent books, such as Megatrends 2010 claimthat the Information Age has ended and that seven megatrends are shaping
a new era. The author predicts that a great shift in society will occur because
corporate executives, who formerly focused mainly on maximizing profits, will
begin to act in socially responsible ways. They will do more things to benefit
society, such as initiate new programs to reduce pollution and contribute toacademic scholarships. The idea of corporate social responsibility began as areaction to public protests against corporate greed and executive wrong-doing,such as the Enron scandal in 2001 and the MCI accounting scandal in 2002.

8 C D Another book, The Future of Medicine – Megatrends in Health Care That
Will Improve Your Quality of Life, was written by Dr. Stephen Schimpff, arenowned physician and professor of medicine who teaches government healthcare policy. He predicts that the basic concept of health care will change fromdiagnosing and treating to predicting and preventing. Information from aperson’s genome will help doctors predict diseases that the person may develop
and prevent them. Schimpff also describes the roles that robots will play inmedicine. Some megatrends may seem like science fiction, but when new eras
begin, changes often seem unbelievable.
CD
Understanding the aging society and health care megatrends as
9 1-06
well as changes created by other megatrends such as the Green Movement,
nanotechnology, and acceleration is critical for your future.

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NOTESfads < fad「一時的な熱狂 , 気まぐれ , 一時的流行」paved the way for ～「～への道を開いた」social possibilities「社会的可能性」たとえば , インターネットを介してのデートとかイ
ンターネットを用いて「スカイプ（Skype）」のユーザー同士が無料で通話をしたりすること。
Iphones < Iphone「アイフォーン」アップル社製のスマートフォン YouTube「ユーチュー
ブ」米国カルフォルニア州の同名の企業が行っているインターネットによる動画共有サービス。
（Facebook, Inc.）の企業が提供するソーシャル・ネットワーキ
Facebook「フェイスブック」同名
ング・サービス Smith Corona「スミス・コロナ」1926 年に L. C. Smith & Brothers Typewriter
Co. が Corona Typewriter と合併して現在の社名になった。plummet「急激に落ち込む , 急に下がる」filed for bankruptcy「破産を申請する，破産の手続きを申請する」technology-driven「科学技術主導の」aging society「高齢化社会」全人口に占める 65 歳以上の人の割合が 7％を超える社会をいい ,14％を超えると高齢社会（aged society）と呼ぶ。日本は 1994 年以降高齢化社会になっており ,2006 年には高齢化率は 20.8%（2,660 万人）になった。高齢化率は今後も上昇を続け 2025
年には 28.7%, 2055 年には 40.5% に達し , 国民の 2.5 人に 1 人が 65 歳以上の社会になると推計されている。post industrial countries「脱工業化した国々, 脱工業化国家」health care system「健康保険制度 , 医療制度」Pharmaceutical companies「製薬会社」pharmaceutical は「調剤［製薬］の , 薬学の」の意。cf. pharmacy「薬屋 , 製薬 , 薬学」elder-care industry「老人介護業 , 老人介護ビジネス」Developers「不動産開発業者 , 宅地開発業者」retirement homes「老人ホーム , 退職者のホーム」budgets < budget「生活費 , 予算」John Naisbitt「ジョン・ネイス
ビッツ（1929- ）」未来学者。ベストセラーとなった『メガトレンド―10 の社会潮流が近未来を決定づける』（Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, 1982）は , 世界的反響を呼んだ。Megatrends 2010『メガトレンド 2010』副題に The Rise of Conscious Capitalism とある。著者のパトリシア・アバディーンには前夫 John Naisbitt との共著 Megatrends 2000(1990)
や Megatrends for Women（2002）などがある。Enron scandal「エンロン・スキャンダル」エンロンは総合エネルギー取引と IT ビジネスを行なう大企業に成長したが , 実はその成長が巨額の不正経理と不正取引に支えられていたことが判明し ,2001 年 12 月に倒産に追い込まれた。MCI
accounting scandal「MCI 会計スキャンダル」米長距離通信事業第 2 位 MCI（ 旧 WorldCom）は自社株の価格を下支えするために財務状況を隠蔽し , 約 90 億ドルの利益を水増しして自社の収益性を良く見せかけようと粉飾会計を行ない ,2002 年 7 月破産を申請した。Dr.Stephen Schimpff「スティーヴン・シンフ」The Future of Medicine は 2007 年の出版。government health carepolicy「国の医療政策」health care は「医療 , 健康管理」の意。genome「ゲノム」生物の生活機能を維持するための最小限の遺伝子群を含む染色体の１組をゲノム（genome）と称するが , ここでは広い意味での「生物の遺伝物質」を指す。nano-technology「ナノテクノロジー , 超微細加工技術」10 億分の 1m といった微細な単位で加工・計測を行う超精密技術。半導体や機械加工 , さらには生物 , 医学分野での応用を目指す。

COMPREHENSION
Read the following questions. Choose the most appropriate answer from a) to d).
1. The word sweeping in paragraph 1 is closest in meaning toa) cleaning with a broomb) having a wide effectc) getting rid of unwanted thingsd) too difficult to achieve

4Chapter 1 Megatrends: What Do They Mean to You?

2. According to paragraph 2, which of the following is true about sub-trends?
a) Sub-trends are always technological.
b) Sub-trends are offshoots of megatrends.
c) Analysts are mainly interested in studying sub-trends.
d) Sub-trends only existed in the Information Age.
3. In paragraph 5, which changes are occurring because of the aging
megatrend?
a) Private businesses are adjusting pension funds and health care systems.
b) The elder-care industry is declining because families will care for theirrelatives.
c) The government has no interest in the aging society megatrend.
d) Pharmaceutical companies are developing drugs that seniors want andneed.
4. Which of the following can be inferred from paragraph 8?
a) People will be able to cure themselves without doctors.
b) People will get many diseases unless they balance their life and work.
c) The shift of medical care to predict and prevent will benefit people.
d) Robots will never be used in health care.
1- 7

GUIDED SUMMARY
Fill each space with the best word from the list below.

________________ are important because they can change the way people thinkand live. Some megatrends begin with new 2) ________________developments andothers occur because of changes in society. In the new 3) ________________ thatis now beginning, the author of a book about megatrends 4) ________________
that corporate social responsibility will replace the greed and executive
crimes that occurred during the Information Age. A doctor who studies the
future of medicine claims that the focus of health care will change from________________ and curing to predicting and preventing. Understanding
5)
megatrends is 6) ________________ as people plan their futures.
1)

technologicalera
megatrends

diagnosing
predicts

beneficial

5