RESEARCH
Client Briefing

Energy Intelligence Briefing

Gas and LNG Market Outlook

Copyright © 2024 Energy Intelligence GroupApril 2024

CONTACT DETAILSIan NathanDirector, Gas and LNG ResearchNew York+1 646 616 0828 I inathan@energyintel.com

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

A Trusted Advisor to the Energy Industry
Engaging insights | Leading decisions• Energy Intelligence is an integrated
intelligence provider delivering analysis,
research and data into the energy sector.

• The Energy Intelligence advantage:– Independent primary-sourced analysis– Objective insight– Reliable data– Research and analysis– Events and conferences• About us:– Established in 1951 (seven decades of history)– Staff across nine global centers– Award-winning editorial team– Specialized Research & Advisory arm2

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Energy Intelligence Services
Tailored intelligence for our clients• Whether you specialize in the energy transition, oil markets, LNG, risk or competitive
intelligence, we tailor our news, analysis, research and data to fit your business – we callthis tailored intelligence.

• We deliver expertise that you can’t get anywhere else. Our global reach and ability to speak withdecision-makers means we provide insights that others can’t.

• With our breaking news alerts, curated analysis feeds, data sets that integrate with your models
and in-depth research reports, we’re able to build energy solutions for big and small organizations.

Energy Intelligence insights
extend across five core areas,each providing an integrated
offering of news, analysis,
research and data.
3

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Agenda• Short-Term Gas Market Dynamics and Price Drivers• LNG Supply Dynamics• Long-Term LNG Demand Outlook

4

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

01• Short-Term Gas Market Dynamics and Price Drivers• LNG Supply Dynamics• Long-Term LNG Demand Outlook

5

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Short-Term LNG Market: Searching for Direction
European imports drop to lowest weekly level since December 2021
Europe: TTF/JKM Spread vs. LNG Imports*
3.06

JKM Premium

JKM premium deflated
4
2.5
20
2.0-2
1.5-4

Net Q1’24 European imports
were 13% lower year over year.

1.0-6-8

Net Imports, 4-Wk MA (million tons)-10Avg. Net Weekly Imports, 2022

0.5

Avg. Net Weekly Imports, 2023
-12Avg. Net Weekly Imports, 2024 YTD
TTF/JKM Spread, 4-Wk MA ($/MMBtu, Right Axis)

TTF Premium

2022

2023

Apr. 1Mar. 18

Mar. 4

Feb. 19

Feb. 5Jan. 22Jan. 8Dec. 25

Dec. 11

Nov. 27

Nov. 13

Oct. 30

Oct. 16

Oct. 2

Sep. 18

Sep. 4

Aug. 21

Aug. 7

Jul. 24

Jul. 10Jun. 26

Jun. 12May. 29

May. 15

May. 1

Apr. 17

Apr. 3Mar. 20

Mar. 6Feb. 20

Feb. 6

Jan. 23

Jan. 9Dec. 26

Dec. 12Nov. 28

Nov. 14

Oct. 31

Oct. 17-14

Oct. 30.02024*Includes the UK, excludes Turkey. Source: Kpler, Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research

6Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

European Market: Still Key to Global Pricing
Comfortable storage points to market weakness, but expect volatility to persist
Europe: Gas Storage (TWh)1,2002019-23 Range
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
2019-23 Avg.

1,000

Storage above both2023 levels and2019-23 range

800

Watching for…
• Supply pullback• Demand rebound• Higher Ukrainian storage• Lower prices

600400200
Conversion factor
1 TWh = ~93 MMcm
1 TWh = ~3.3 Bcf

Dec. 31

Dec. 17

Dec. 3

Nov. 19

Nov. 5Oct. 22

Oct. 8Sep. 24

Sep. 10

Aug. 27

Aug. 13

Jul. 30

Jul. 16

Jul. 2

Jun. 18

Jun. 4

May. 21May. 7

Apr. 23

Apr. 9Mar. 26

Mar. 12Feb. 26

Feb. 12Jan. 29

Jan. 15

Jan. 10Source: GIE AGSI

7

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Spot Price Scenarios and Global Implications
Volatility drivers in a structurally tight market
LNG Spot Price Scenarios ($/MMBtu)
35

Energy Intelligence Northeast Asia Spot Assessment
TTF
JKM

30

Israel-Hamas war

25

Australia LNG strikes
Norwegian maintenance2015105

Instances of weekly
TTF spikes >= 25%2023

Mar. 25

Mar. 11Feb. 26

Feb. 12Jan. 29

Jan. 15

Jan. 1

Dec. 18

Dec. 4

Nov. 20

Nov. 6

Oct. 23

Oct. 9Sep. 25

Sep. 11

Aug. 28

Aug. 14

Jul. 31

Jul. 17

Jul. 3

Jun. 19

Jun. 5May. 22May. 8Apr. 24

Apr. 10

Mar. 27

Mar. 13Feb. 27

Feb. 13Jan. 30

Jan. 16Jan. 202024

Source: CME, Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research LNG Market Evolution Quarterly Q4’238Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Asian LNG: Price-Sensitive Market Import GrowthLower prices are helping drive higher imports but muted activity by others weighs on regional impact
Asia: LNG Imports, Four-Week Moving Average by Region (million tons)

East Asia ex. China

2021
3.6

China

2023

South Asia

2024

Japanese LNG imports were down by 8% in
2023, supported in large part by nuclear
restarts. Japan + Korea down 8% in Q1’24.

3.2

2022

Southeast Asia

2.8

2.4

Chinese LNG imports increased in 2023 andare up 20% year to date; lower JKM supports
durability amid other demand headwinds.

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.80.4

Indian imports are up 41% year-to-date among broader South Asianand Southeast Asian import growth in a supportive price environment.
Dec. 20

Dec. 6

Nov. 22

Nov. 8Oct. 25

Oct. 11

Sep. 27

Sep. 13

Aug. 30

Aug. 16

Aug. 2

Jul. 19

Jul. 5

Jun. 21Jun. 7

May. 24

May. 10

Apr. 26

Apr. 12Mar. 29

Mar. 15

Mar. 1Feb. 15

Feb. 1

Jan. 18

Jan. 40.0

Source: Kpler

9Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing02• Short-Term Gas Market Dynamics and Price Drivers• LNG Supply Dynamics• Long-Term LNG Demand Outlook

10Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

LNG Projects: Still Positioned for Several FIDs Despite Headwinds
US regulatory pause could support other projects
LNG Supply: Potential Gross Capacity Additions to 2030*(million tons/yr)
400

350

Opportunities to Offset Delayed US Projects

300

250

Previously Expected Probable 2024 US FIDs (Now Delayed)
200

150

100
Recent Start-Up/Under Construction
2024 Probable FIDs: Rest of World
2024 Probable FIDs: US Projects Without Non-FTA Export Approval502024 Possible FIDs: US Projects With Non-FTA Export Approval2024 Possible FIDs: Rest of World02024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

*Excludes ventures targeting 2025+ FID. Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research

11Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Focus: US LNG Regulatory Outlook Delay Implications
Long-term supply at risk if US approval delays become indefinite
US LNG: New Capacity Growth Scenarios (million tons/yr)*140

Under Construction Only
Under Construction + 2024 Probable FIDs -- Pre-Pause
Under Construction + 2024 Probable FIDs -- One-Year Delay

1201008060

40

2002025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

*Excludes Driftwood, along with ventures planning for 2025+ FID. Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research12

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Focus: US LNG Regulatory Outlook Delay Implications
Impact likely turns on buyer response
Stakeholder

Delay Implications• One-Year Delay: Likely zero late 2020s price impact

MarketsLNG Developers• Indefinite Delay: Significant shortfall supports prices by2028-29, adding a key demand headwind• Could scare off buyers (a) already committed to projects or(b) considering projects under review; possible deal
hesitancy pending licensing• Possibly greater US regulatory certainty in 2025
• End users may need to source alternative supply

LNG Buyers

US Upstream• Portfolio players and traders are more insulated fromproject delays, but portfolio strategy could be disrupted• Project delays spread out the late 2020s call on US gas• Some US E&Ps may need to find alternative partnerships
for LNG exports

13Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Long-Term Supply Contracting
Conditions for long-term supply deal momentum continue in 2024
Long-Term LNG Supply Agreements, 2021-24 YTD*(million tons/yr)
US regulatory delays impact around 13% of100
supply agreements represented in this graph.

2021
2022
2023

902024 YTD

Deliveries specificallyintended for Germany
account for around 1/3 ofEuropean commitments.

807060Indian and Bangladeshi
buyers dominate thiscategory.

50403020
100
Portfolio Players andTraders

Chinese Buyers

European Buyers

Other End Users

Japanese Buyers

Korean Buyers*Includes both publicly announced firm and preliminary agreements, which are not double-counted. Traders/Portfolio Player designation excludes instances where end user is already known. Some expected
end users may also trade or divert cargoes. Total volumes are approximate due to limited detail and data in some announcements, particularly preliminary deals. Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research14

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Long-Term Supply Contracting
Uptick in shorter long-term deals but considerable volumes well into the 2040s and beyond
LNG Contracting: Agreement Durations, 2022-24 YTD(Number of Agreements*)

120+ million tons/yr352022
2023302024 YTD

2520151050
5-9 Years

10-14 Years

15-19 Years

20-24 Years

25+ Years*Excludes deals <5 years or those for which durations are unknown. Includes HOAs that became SPAs. 2024 YTD through Apr. 1. Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research

15

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

LNG Prices: Oil Indexation Outlook
Oil indexation provides some price stability, but it will not always supply the lowest-cost volumes
LNG Prices: Indicative Term vs. JKM ($/MMBtu)

Oil-Indexation vs. Spot Pricing ($/MMBtu)
JKM

5516Indicative Term 12% Slope*
Indicative Term 14% Slope*

Indicative Term Price Range
12%-14% Slope
No ConstantEnergy Intelligence
Brent Forecast and Indicative
Term Price Range 2025-27

50
14Impetus for price-sensitive buyers toreturn to spot volumes:• Prices at a more manageable level• Spot prices lower than indicative term
prices once again

4540

12$11.48/MMBtu

Average JKM
to date35

10$9.84/MMBtu

30
82520

Energy Intelligence
JKM/Asia Spot Forecast 2026

61541052JunJulAugSepOct
Nov
DecJanFebMar
AprMayJunJulAugSepOct
Nov
DecJanFebMarAprMayJun02022

2023*No constant, three-month lag, except for 2024-27.
Source: CME, Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research2024'24'25'26'27

Energy IntelligenceLong-Term Brent Forecast
Level Under Multiple
Transition Scenarios

Brent Price Range ($/bbl)

0556065707580859095100

Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research16

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

03• Short-Term Gas Market Dynamics and Price Drivers• LNG Supply Dynamics• Long-Term LNG Demand Outlook

17

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Long-Term LNG Demand Scenarios
Consistent demand drivers and risks into the late 2020s and 2030s
Long-Term LNG Demand Scenarios (million tons)
900

Base CaseHigh Case
Low Case

800

700

600
Total Market
500

400
Asia

Upstream revival, greater success with alternatives
in power offsetting gas use and faster economic
maturity are ongoing downside risks.

300

EuropeConstrained gas availability, challenges toalternatives in power and lower prices support
robust Asian growth into next decade.

200

Other Markets

10002021

2022

202320242025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research LNG Supply/Demand Outlook to 2040

18

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Long-Term LNG Demand Drivers: New and Forthcoming Markets
Expectations for limited aggregate long-term demand impact• Myriad obstacles to new market development impact– Smaller market opportunities– Limited growth from gas supply gaps
– Preference for renewables in power generation from fuel displacement– Broader gas demand reduction efforts– Aboveground risk unrelated to climate/emissions policy

Legend:New LNG Markets 2022-23

Forthcoming and Proposed LNG Markets**Not exhaustive. Indicates direct imports. Excludes several countries for which LNG import plans have been shelved. Source: Energy Intelligence Gas and LNG Research19

Energy Intelligence | Client Briefing

Contact Us
Geoff Wright | New York
Global Head of Sales+1 646 616 0836
gwright@energyintel.com

Sam Ghrairi | London
Director of Sales EMEA & APAC
+44 (0)20 7518 2244
sghrairi@energyintel.com

Ahmed Eissa | Dubai
Sales, Middle East & Africa+971 (4) 364 2610
aeissa@energyintel.com

The Americas

EuropeMiddle East & Asia-Pacific275 Madison Avenue, Suite 1700
New York, NY 10016
Tel: +1 212 532 1112

2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House
Berkeley Square
London W1J 6BD, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7518 2200

1 Pickering Street, #08-01
Suite 20, Great Eastern Center
Singapore 048659
Tel: +65 6538 0363

Daev Pereulok 20, Office 210
107045 Moscow, Russia
Tel: +7 495 604 8279/78/77

Arjaan Office Tower 301
Dubai Media City
P.O. Box 502803
Dubai, UAE
Tel: +971 4 364 2607/2608

National Press Building, Suite 340
529 14th Street NW
Washington, DC 20045
Tel: +1 202 662 0700
808 Travis Street, Suite 1014
Houston, TX 77002
Tel: +1 713 222 9700

energyintel.com

Anurag Joshi | Singapore
Sales, APAC
+65 6538 0363
ajoshi@energyintel.com

Berytech Innovation Park Mathaf
Museum District, Damascus Road
P.O. Box: 11-7503 Riad el Solh, 1107 2240
Beirut, Lebanon
Tel: +961 3 301278

20