Oil 2024 - Analysis and forecasts to 2030
Keisuke Sadamori, Director for Energy Markets and Security, IEA
Tokyo, 26 July 2024

© IEA 2021

Outlook sensitive to GDP and oil price assumptions$100
USD/bbl5%
4%

Alternative oil price scenarios

Impact on global oil demand
1,200

Kb/d

GDP growth by region

$90

800
600

$80

3%

1,000

400
200

$70

2%

0-200

1%

$60

0%

$50

-400-600

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
OECDNon-OECD

World

2024

Base

2026

2028

Low

2030

High-800

2025

2026

2027

Low OECDHigh OECD2028

2029

2030

Low Non-OECDHigh Non-OECD

Outlook assumes global GDP growth of 3% (0.5% below pre-pandemic trend)with oil prices staying constant near current level of $80/bbl© IEA 2024

World oil demand on course to plateau by 2030

Growth decelerates from 2.1 mb/d in 2023 to less than 1 mb/d in 2024, with a small contraction by 2030.
Demand, including biofuels, plateaus at around 105.6 mb/d by the end of the forecast period.
© IEA 2024

Demand growth dominated by Asia, aviation and petrochemicals

China, India and other emerging and developing economies in Asia each add 1.3-1.4 mb/d.
Petrochemical feedstocks, jet fuel drive product gains, while gasoline leads declines.
© IEA 2024

Oil demand growth

Slower GDP growth and clean energy deployment gives oil plateau
3.0%
10%

2023

2.0%
4%

0%

-4%
0.5%
-6%
0.0%
-8%

2021

2015

2013

2%
1.5%

1.0%
-2%

2011-2023
2011-2023

2022

8%
2.5%
6%

2017
2023
2014

2018

2012
2019

2024

2019
2029

2016

2025
2027

Pre-pandemic
trend
Forecast
2024-2030

2022

2020-2023

2011

2026

Forecast
without
substitution

2028

2030
2020

-0.5%
-10%
2.6% -3.0%
2.8%-2.0% 3.0%
-4.0%
-1.0%

3.2% 1.0%3.4%2.0% 3.6%
0.0%
3.0%
GDP growth

3.8% 5.0%4.0%
4.0%
6.0%

4.2%
7.0%

Prepandemic
trend

After a post-Covid rebound, growth in oil demand will lose momentum and plateau this decade.
It will disconnect from subpar GDP growth as substitution away from oil undermines consumption.
© IEA 2024

mb/d

Substitution effects curb demand growth
7.0
6.0

Power
Generation
Subs.

5.0
4.0
3.0

EVs

2.0
1.0
0.0
2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

20292030

Substitution away from oil set to displace more than 6 mb/d in oil demand by 2030, largely in transport as
EV growth continues, with an additional 1 mb/d in Middle Eastern power generation.
© IEA 2024

Oil capacity building loses momentum towards 2030
Capacity growth versus demand growth (y-o-y change)

The US and other producers in the Americas lead the medium-term capacity expansion, adding 4.7 mb/d. Saudi
Arabia suspends crude capacity boost in favour of NGLs build out.
© IEA 2024

Surplus supply capacity may reach highest level in recent times

mb/dOPEC+ spare crude production capacity and implied total oil stock build, 2016-2030
10Implied oilstock build

8Off mkt due tosanctions
Other OPEC+6Iraq
4UAE
20Saudi Arabia
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Notes: Projections based on the current OPEC+ supply agreement. OPEC+ countries are crude oil only. Assumes Iran and Russia remain under sanctions. Implied oil stock builds include total oil.

Total supply capacity rises by 6 mb/d to 114 mb/d by 2030, 8 mb/d above projected global demand. Such amassive spare cushion could challenge OPEC+ oil market management and US shale.
© IEA 2024

Growth in upstream spending moderates
800

120

700

100

600
80

500
400

60300

40200

ActualGuidance
Real (USD 2023)
Brent Price (rhs)20100
0USD/bbl

USD billions

Global oil and gas upstream capital spend and annual average Brent price

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023 2024E0Investment to rise 7% in 2024 to $575 billion, the highest nominal since 2015. Real spend is still below 2019levels. New facility investment slows while well capex surfs record highs.
© IEA 2024

Global oil supply growth led by the US and other Americas

2025-2030 Growthmb/d

Oil supply changes for select countries in 2025-2030 compared to 2021-2024
2.0

Post-Covid growthand future growth

Post-Covid declines
and future growth

1.5

United States

Saudi Arabia

1.0

Brazil
Qatar

0.5
0.0

UAE

United Kingdom

NorwayChina

Post-Covid declines
and future declines-0.5

IranLibya

Iraq

Nigeria-1.0-1.0

CanadaBiofuels

Russia-0.5

GuyanaPost-Covid growthand future declines

Mexico

0.0

0.5

1.5
1.0
2021-2024 Growth

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0
mb/d

The US, along with Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina lead supply growth through 2030. Mexico posts largestdecline© IEA 2024

mb/d

US growth moderated by shifting corporate strategies
US total oil supply

US total oil supply growth (y-o-y)
225
20

1

15
100

50-12020
LTO

2022

2024

2026

Gulf of Mexico

2028

2030

Alaska2020

Other Crude

2022

2024NGLs

2026

2028

2030

Other Liquids

Annual growth falls from 1.5 mb/d in 2023 to 150 kb/d in 2030. Shale, powered by the Permian, provides 80% ofthe growth. Total supply tops 20 mb/d starting in 2024.
© IEA 2024

US shale continues to evolve towards high returns and low growth
Well cost per barrel
1812$/bblmb/dUS LTO production

1081614121068464220
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
MidlandDelawareBakken0

2017

Eagle Ford

2019
DJ/Niobrara

2021

2023
OtherNotes: Well cost per barrel determined by dividing the median well costs by the median estimated ultimate recovery. Other excluded from well cost chart.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube

Annual gains drop from 930 kb/d in 2023 to just under 200 kb/d annually in the second half of the decade.
Headwinds to growth come amid capital discipline, consolidations and tapering productivity metrics.
© IEA 2024

Refined product demand growth is crushed by non-refined fuels supply

mb/dCompeting sources of product supply reduce refined products market share

89
88
87
86

Fractionation products

85

Biofuels84CTL/GTL/additives

83

Total liquids growth82

Global81
80

Refined productdemand 2023

Total liquids demand
growthNon-refined fuels
supply growth

Refined productdemand 2030

Low cost NGLs and biofuel blending mandates pressure refiners’ market share© IEA 2024

Refinery capacity growth exceeds oil products demand increase
Total growth in refinery capacity by region

Fuels by-passing the refinery system (crude, NGLs and biofuels) meet 2/3 of demand growth to2030. Refinery capacity, especially in mature markets, will face renewed risk of closure.
© IEA 2024

mb/d

Current wave of refinery capacity build-out slows post 2026
Annual refinery capacity additions and closures

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

Closures

0.0Additions
2023 Net-0.5

2024 Net

-1.0
-1.5
-2.0

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Slowing demand growth caps appetite for more. More closures likely to be announced.
© IEA 2024

Call on refined products in OECD Europe and then the Americas falls
Year on year growth in refined products by region

Asia, led by India, remains the core driver of refined product growth through to 2030.
Conversely, the contraction in US gasoline demand pushes the Americas to lead the decline by 2026.
© IEA 2024

Atlantic Basin fills Asian crude oil gap in the medium-term
Net crude oil exports versus Asian import requirement, 2019-2030

The crude deficit East of Suez rises from 4.9 mb/d in 2023 to 7.7 mb/d by 2030. It will be met by increased
supplies from the Atlantic Basin, including from Russia.
© IEA 2024

US, Middle East to meet Asia’s growing demand for products
Regional balances for total refined products, 2023-2030

Increased product needs in net importers will boost global product trade and provide room for higher
exports from the Middle East and the United States.
© IEA 2024

© IEA 2024