Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022
May 2022

Context• The IEA and ASEAN celebrated ten years of cooperation in late 2021, with Energy Ministers and theExecutive Director noting the wide-ranging scope & achievements of the relationship, including the IEA’s
designation as ASEAN’s ‘strategic partner’.
• The Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 is the fifth edition of this World Energy Outlook Special Report– published on a regular basis since 2013.
• Since the last dedicated Southeast Asia report in 2019, the region’s policymakers have taken on new,ambitious policy commitments but countries have also been severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic
and, more recently, high and volatile prices exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• This report explores possible trajectories for the region, based on IEA scenarios:- The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) explores the implications of today’s policy landscape- The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) reflects the region’s new climate policy ambitions

IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

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Southeast Asia is an emerging heavyweight of global energy
Total primary energy supply in Southeast Asia by fuel and country
30

Total primary energy supply by fuelTotal primary energy supply by country

25EJ

20
15
1052000
2005
Renewables
Natural gas
Coal

2010

2015
2020
Traditional use of biomass
Oil

2000
Lao PDR
Singapore
Thailand2005
2010
Brunei
Philippines
Indonesia

2015
2020 eCambodia
MyanmarViet Nam
Malaysia

The 10 member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the world’s fastest
growing, but there are strong country-by-country economic and energy variations
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

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Announced climate ambitions have huge implications for energy
Energy demand trends in Southeast Asia by scenario
Oil demand

Natural gas demand

Renewables in power

Coal demand

7.5300450

2 100

52.502020 2030 2040 2050

200100TWh2 800

mtce

600

bcm

400

mb/d

10300

1 400

150

2020 2030 2040 2050

STEPS

700

2020 2030 2040 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050

SDS

Today’s policy settings in the STEPS imply continued strong reliance on fossil fuels to meet future demand growth;
meeting new net zero goals will require major efforts to improve efficiency & switch to low emissions power & fuels
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Today’s pathway brings significant energy security risks
Crude oil and natural gas trade to Southeast Asia by origin in the Stated Policies Scenario
Crude oil

8120

bcm

6Mb/d

Natural gas

160

480

40220202030

Middle EastAfrica

2050
North America

2020
Central & South America

2030
Russia2050
Australia

Other

Southeast Asia’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet rising demand for energy is proving to be asignificant vulnerability in today’s energy crisis and – on today’s policy settings – these risks are set to increaseIEA 2022. All rights reserved.

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The region is not on track to hit its sustainability goals
Key sustainability indicators in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario
Share of population withaccess to clean cooking

Gt CO2CO2 emissions
3.0

100%

1.5

50%

0.0

2020

2030

2050

0%

2020

2030

2050

Today’s policy settings produce a rising trend for energy-related emissions and – while Southeast Asia has madeimpressive progress with access to electricity – universal access to clean cooking fuels is not secured
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

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Flexibility is the watchword for a wind and solar-rich power mix
Power generation and shares of variable renewables in Southeast Asia in the Sustainable Development Scenario
3 200Power generation
OtherWind

2 400
TWhSolar PV
Geothermal
Bioenergy

1 600

Hydro
Ammonia
Oil

800

Natural gas
Coal
2020

2030

2040

2050

Today’s contractual arrangements for coal- and gas-fired plants offer no incentives for these plants to provide
flexibility; this is one of the areas that will need to change to enable a rapid rise of clean electrification
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Low emissions fuels are a vital part of Southeast Asia’s energy future
Changes of low-emissions and abated fuels in Southeast Asia in the Sustainable Development Scenario
12 000

CCUS

8 000

Hydrogen andhydrogen-based fuels

PJ

10 000

6 000
4 000

Modern bioenergy

2 00020002020

Buildings Transport Industry Power2050

Countries across Southeast Asia are well-placed to tap into significant resources of bioenergy
and hydrogen as well as CO2 storage potential
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A surge in clean energy investment is needed this decade
Average annual energy investment

Billion USD200End-use
Renewable for end-use
EVs

150

Efficiency
PowerNetworks

100

Fossil fuels without CCUS
Other low-carbon

50

Solar and windFuels

STEPS
2016-20SDS
2026-30

Low emissions fuels
Fossil fuels

National & international public finance will be essential to meet the region’s energy security & climate goals, butgovernments need to do much more to attract private investors by reducing regulatory and financing risks
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A new global energy economy is emerging
Potential revenue from selected minerals in Southeast Asia, SDS

Billion USD (2020)

10080

Total
Rare earth elements

60

Tin
40

CopperNickel202020

2030
2050
2050
With current market share
Higher market share
(15%)
(25%)
Southeast Asia’s critical mineral resources and manufacturing prowess could position the region well in clean energy
supply chains; rapid growth in clean energy deployment will create huge market opportunities
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

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IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp

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