IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Overview of Thailand
IntegratedgEnergygyBlueprint

D TDr.
TwarathhS
SutabutrbDirector-General,
Energy Policy and Planning Office,Ministry of Energy,
Thailand20 November 2015

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Outline• TIEB: Thailand’s Energy Sector and its challenges• Enhancing competitiveness along the 5 dimensions• Bold moves to change the landscape of energy sector• 5 master plans as the pillars of energy development

11

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint

Security
EconomyEcology

Security
EconomyEcology

PDP

EEDP

AEDP

Good Governance of MoEN

PDP

EEDPAEDPGasOil

Good Governance of MoEN22

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Assessment of Thailand’s current energy status andevolution trajectory relative to international benchmarks

A2035 (legacy plans)
2012

Supply security▪ Depleting resources andincreasing LNG and oil imports

Best in class
Cost competitiveness▪ Increasing gas
imports and reducingddomestic
ti supplylCompetitive
B

Energy supportsustainability▪ Subsidies projected toincrease over time undercurrent policies1CLaggingDEEnvironment andenergy efficiency▪ GDP grows at aslowerlratet ththan ththeemissions

Socio-economic supportfor the needed▪ Energy subsidies ineffective
at targeting the poor

1 Forecast based on maintaining current level of fuel subsidies per unit of fuel consumed
SOURCE: Team analysis, LEAP data, IEA energy balances, IEA emission factors

33

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Outline• TIEB: Thailand’s Energy Sector and its challenges• Enhancing competitiveness along the 5 dimensions• Bold moves to change the landscape of energy sector• 5 master plans as the pillars of energy development

44

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Thailand’s opportunities in light of emerging technology, marketconditions and resource baseThailand resource base

▪ Biomass/biofuels: Abundantagriculturali lt l feedstockf d t k▪ Solar PV: Good irradiation▪ Hydropower, Oil & Gas: Proximity
to countries with untapped resources(Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia)
T h lTechnology

M k t conditions
Marketditi▪ Renewable power: Rapidly▪ Oil price decline anddeclining cost of solar▪ Biofuels: Prospects of
2nd/3rd generation biofuels▪ Coal power: High efficiency
efficiency,
low emissions clean coaltechnology now on-stream▪ Oil & Gas: Breakthroughs

Window ofopportunity
for Thailand

growing momentum forsubsidy
b id reform
facross
ASEAN▪ AEC integration: catalyst
ffor cross-country
t projects
j t
and infrastructureinterconnections

in extraction and recovery
55

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Outline• TIEB: Thailand’s Energy Sector and its challenges• Enhancing competitiveness along the 5 dimensions• Bold moves to change the landscape of energy sector• 5 master plans as the pillars of energy development

66

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Plans need to include “bold moves” to shape Thailand outcomes

EnergyEfficiency

DescriptionpImpactp▪ Remove subsidies to convey market price▪ Achieve 30% energy

signal▪ Accelerate EE execution via benchmarking,ki
accountabilityt bilit andd enforcementft▪ Rebalance power mix with clean coal
Conventional
power (PDP)p()

technology deployment for half of all newthermal pplants▪ Three pronged approach for costRenewables(AEDP)

effective scale up of renewables:– Drive: Biomass and waste– Pace: Solar– Monitor: Wind▪ Improve yield to limit imports and benefit
Biofuels
Bif l(AEDP)

rurall communityit▪ Counter production decline with E&P
Oil & Gas

activity stimulus policies (“Reimagine Gulf ofThailand”)▪ Channel
Chl subsidies
b idi directlyditl tot targettt
Economics

segments in need

intensity reduction (vs.
0.5% p.a. increase overlast 10 years)▪ Reach 30% coal inpower mix vs. 20% today▪ 20%% clean coal vs. onlyy
normal coal today▪ Achieve cost < LNG
parity for 20% RES sharein power mix (vs.
(vs ~8%today)▪ ~20% substitution inttransportt (vs.
(4% ttoday)d )▪ Up to THB 50 Bln/y GDPimpact▪ Limit domestic gas
decline rate at ~2-5%
p.a. (vs. -11% BAU)

▪ Unleash
U lh THB ~380B
380B forf
productive use
77

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Each “bold move” will contribute to shaping Thailand’s energy outcomes
Impact on energy system“Delta moves”
FFormerplansl2036A) Supply
security (% netimports)
63%

Cost-effective
renewables

750C) Environment (tCO2e/Mn GDP PPP)D) Budgetsustainability(% of GDP)

E) Support forthe needed (%subsidies to poor)

213

1 9%
1.9%

~20%
20%

Delta moves in enforcement andaccountability; no change in target

Accelerate EE
Rebalance
power mixB) Cost competitiveness(USD/TOE)~0-3 p.p.

-33

-18

Bio-hub
development+1 p.p.

+2

Reimagine Gulfof Thailand-13 p.p.

-21

-1.8%

+3-7+4

Recalibrated target
g :44% oil substitution
to 19%-0.1
0 1 p.p.

Subsidiesreform
Optimized 2035
2036
Optimized

Accounted insubsidies
b idi
reform+50 p.p.
48%

680

213

0.1%

~65%

88

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Outline• TIEB: Thailand’s Energy Sector and its challenges• Enhancing competitiveness along the 5 dimensions• Bold moves to change the landscape of energy sector• 5 master plans as the pillars of energy development

99

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Summary of Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint

Thailand Integrated
energy blueprint:
5 objectives
1 Supply security
4 Energy supportsustainability
2 Cost competitiveness5 Socio-economic support
3 Environment
for the needed people/sector

Energyefficiency(EEDP)

Powerdevelopment(PDP)

Altern. Energy(AEDP)

Gasroadmap

 30%
energyintensity
reduction

 20-25%
coal firedpower 15-20%
renewable

 Zoning
andcompetitiv
e bidding Curb Gas
demand(TBD)
 LNG
structure

Oilroadmap

 20% ofbiofuel Fossil fuelsubsidy
removal, tgt.
subsidies

Integrated economics/fiscal systems
Integrated MOE governing structure
Source: Team analysis

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Summary of PDP 2015
DDemanddF
Forecastt ffor El
Electricityt i it 2016-2036
2016 2036

11IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Summary of PDP 2015
Estimated fuel mix (percentage)
PDP2010
PDP2010
Rev.3
Rev.
3

PDP 2015
September2014

2026

2036

2030

710-1515 – 20

1020

20-25

20 – 25

198

10-20

15 – 20

8N t
Naturall Gas
G64

45 50
45-50

30 – 40

58

Nuclear--0–55Diesel/ Fuel Oil

1---

Total

100

100

100

100

Fuel type
Purchasing fromneighbouringgg
countries
Clean coal andligniteRenewable
Energy12IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
Alternative Energy TargetTypeSolarWindHydro

Mini
Hydro
(<12MW)

MSW

BiogasEnergyCrops

Biomass

Total

Installed
Capacity
2014

1,298.5

224.5

2,906.4

142

65.7

311.5

-

2,541.8

7,490
490..4

Installed
Capacity
2036

6,000

3,002

2,906.4

376

500

600

680

5,570

19,
19,63
634
4.4

1313

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Summary of PDP 2015
Estimated retail electricity price14

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Summary of PDP 2015
CO2 Emission

15

IEEJ：December 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Incorporating “bold moves” will make Thailand internationallycompetitive along the five energy dimensions
Outcome of plans

Impact on energy system

Oil & Gas
 Domestic gas @ ~2%
decline rate i.e. 2.2
bcf/d in 2036

EEDP
 30% energy intensity
reduction
 Fossil fuel subsidy
removal tgt
removal,tgt. subsidies

xx % difference of scenario vs. BAU

A2036 BAU

Supply security+23%

Costcompetitiveness

BC+8%

PDP
(conventional power)
 30% coall fifiredd powerAEDP 20% RES generation
 19% oil demand met
by biofuels @ costparity

2036 delta moves

Energy support
sustainability1~0%

+95%
D

2.3 x

E1 Assuming fossil fuel subsidies are removed, but renewables are still subsidised; estimates based on Brazil case study
2 Assuming similar average success rate as other targeted subsidy schemes such as Bolsa Familia in Brazil
Source: PDP ,AEDP, EEDP, Gas master plan, and Oil master plan

Environmentd energyandefficiency

Socio-economic
supportfor the needed21616

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Thank you

1717
Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp