IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Energy Technology Perspectives 2017
Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations

Jean-François Gagné, Head, Energy Technology Policy Division, IEA
77th CERT meeting,tiParis,P i 9 JuneJ2017IEA© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Key points of orientation• Global energy markets are changing rapidly
Renewables supplied half of global electricity demand growth in 2016, and increasein nuclear capacity reached highest level since 1993
Global energy intensity improved by 2.1% in 2016
Electric car sales were up 40% in 2016, a new record year• The energy sector remains key to sustainable economic growth1.2B people lack access to electricity; 2.7B people lack access to clean cooking
Largest source of GHG emissions today, around two-thirds of global total
Largest source of air pollution, linked to 6.5 million premature deaths per year

• Thereh
is no single
l story aboutb
theh future
foff global
l b l energyFast-paced technological progress and changing energy business models© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions

Gt 35302520151051970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20102014 2015 2016

IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, eventhough the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China.
© OECD/IEA 2017

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How far can technology take us?
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Global CO2 reductions by technology areaGt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
020040040

Reference Technology Scenario – RTS34%Efficiency 40%
Efficiency 40%
30

15%
Renewables
35%Renewables
35%
Fuel switching
Fuel
18%
5%switching 5%
Nuclear 6%

GtC
CO22 degrees Scenario – 2DS

20
Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS

1%
Nuclear
6%
CCS 14%1032%
CCS 14%02014

2020

2030

2040

2050

Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060
could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.
© OECD/IEA 2017

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The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised
Solar PV and onshore windEnergy storage
Electric vehicles
Nuclear
Transport – Fuel economy of light‐duty vehicles
Energy‐intensive industrial processes
Li hti appliances
Lighting,lianddbbuilding
ildi equipment
itMore efficient coal‐fired power
Carbon capture and storage
Building construction
Transport biofuels●Not on track●Accelerated improvement needed●On track

Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong
push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition…
Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies
Onshore WindPV
1 000

2 000

800

1 600
TWhT

2 400

TWWh

1 200600

1 200

400

800200

400

02000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Data

2025

02000

Forecast

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

TargetSolar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to growby 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017… but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources
Total renewable power generation
iby region
iRest of Non-OECD

Historical

Forecast

40%

Targets

35%

12 00030%

10 000

25%

8 000

20%
6 000

15%

4 000

10%

2025

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

0%
2004

0
2002

5%
2000

2 000

BrazilSh
hare of Renewa
able Generation

Generaation (TWh)

14 000India
China
OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
Share of renewablegeneration in the 2DS
Share of renewablegeneration 2025 in the 2DS

While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace?
Averageg capacity
py additions in different p
periods in the B2DS

2030‐2060
2017‐2030
Last year
Last Decade

0Fossil100

CCS (Incl.BECCS)

200

Nuclear

300
400
GW per year
Hydro

Wind

500

Solar PV

600

700

Other renewables

Recent successes in solar and wind
will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.
© OECD/IEA 2017

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Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future

Centralised fuel production,
power and storage

We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
Co-generation

Renewable energy resources

Centralised fuel production,
power and storage

Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control

H2 vehicle
Surplus heatEV

We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy to a digitally-enhanced,
multidirectional and integrated system that requires long-term planning for services delivery.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions
Globally installed non-pumped
non pumped hydroelectricity storage (GW)Gl b ll iinstalled
Globallyll d electricity
li i storage (GW)
(G )
250

4.0
3.5

200

3.0

150

2.0

GW
W

GW
G

2.5

1.5
1.0

100

5005
0.5
0.00
2011

2014

2016

2016
non-PHS Storage

2020
2025
Pumped Hydropower Storage

Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage
But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Can we enact a storage revolution
Installed battery storage and costs under various scenarios

1000

60 000900
All othersectors

800

50 00040 000

GWh

600
500

30 000400
20 000300
200

10 000
0100
2000

2015

2030

2045
2DS

2060

2015

2030

2045

2060

USD/kWhU

700
EV batteries

Battery costs,
2DS
Battery costs,
B2DS

0

B2DS

Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

EVs are still on track,
Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016
PHEV

Number of vehiccles on the road(Thoussands)

2 000

BEVOhOthers
Germany

1 500

FranceUnited Kingdom
1 000

Netherlands
NorwayJapan500

USA
China
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

EV Growth Rate

The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year,© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

EVs are still on track, but need continued support
Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016

Number of vehiccles on the road(Thoussands)

2 000

200%PHEVBEVOhOthers

1 500150%

GermanyFranceUnited Kingdom

1 000100%Netherlands
Norway50050%

JapanUSAChina

00%
20102011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

EV Growth Rate

The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year, but sales growth went from70% last year to 40% this year, suggesting an increasing risk to start diverging from a 2DS trajectory.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Can we change the landscape of transport ?
Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios
Light-duty Vehicles (millions)
Heavy-Duty Vehicles (millions)
2002516020120158010405002015

RTS ‐ 2060

B2DS ‐ 2060

2015

RTS - 2060

B2DS - 2060

The transportation sector already experiences technological change,
but won’t shed its oil dependency without assertive policies.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility
2014(123 EJ)

Energy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios
RTS 2060(157 EJ)Electricity

123 EJ 31%

Fossil fuels

Traditional biomass

157 EJ

Electricity
54%

Renewables

B2DS 2060(112 EJ)

Electricity
61%

112 EJ

OtherElectricity

Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite
doubling floor area.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

We need to produce materials more sustainably
Energy use and direct CO2 emissions in various industrial sectors under different scenarios
300

12250

10

Other industries
Pulp and paper

200

86100

450

200

EJ

150

Gt CO2Aluminium
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Cement2014

2030

2060
RTS

2030

Iron and steel

2060
B2DSDirect CO2 emissions

Effective policies and public-private collaboration are needed to enable an extensive roll-out of energy
and material efficiency strategies as well as a suite of innovative technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Optimising the use of sustainable biomass
Bioenergy
gy use byy sector

EJ

150
125

Transport

100

Industry75

Buildings

50

Agriculture

25

Fuel transformation

0RTS
2014

2DS

B2DS

Power

2060

Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in IEA decarbonisation scenarios,
but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2017IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

A challenging task ahead for CCS
AAmount
t off CO2 captured
t d underd various
iscenariosi
12 000Rest of world
10 000
EUMt CO₂

8 000
IND
6 000
CHN

Mt CO₂

40
4 000
MEA

2 000
2000

USAToday
Today

2030

2060
2DS

2030

2060
B2DS

CCS is happening today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goals.
The role for CCS varies based on local circumstances.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost

USD
D (2016) billiion

Global clean energy RD&D spending
40Top 3 IT company R&D spenders

MissionInnovation

30201002012
Private2015
2021
PublicTop 3 firms

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
© OECD/IEA 2017

IEEJ：July 2017 © IEEJ2017

Conclusions• Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories,
trajectories helped bypolicies and technologies, but progress is too slow
• An integrated systems approach considering all technology
options must be implemented now to accelerate progress• Each country should define its own transition path and scale
scaleup its RD&D and deployment support accordingly• Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require
unprecedented technology policies and investments
deliver, but policies must consider the full
• Innovation can delivertechnology cycle, and collaborative approaches can help
© OECD/IEA 2017

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www iea org
www.iea.org
IEA

www.iea.org/statistics© OECD/IEA 2017

Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp