Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index
Corporate Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)PPA Index

Germany

1SpainUS2UK

3November 2023 | 62 edition

45Australia

6123SpainFrance745Denmark89

9

Increased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

11

Decreased attractiveness comparedwith previous index

Ethiopia 29

28

Thailand 28
Romania

11 Finland

13

12 Italy7

Current ranking shown in circles withprevious ranking noted at the bottomof each segment25

10 Poland

12New entry

27

15

13

1426
16

27

Greece26

Japan

1820

21

24

23

22

14

19

17151625172423Portugal
2221
South Africa
Colombia
Morocco20

19Belgium

18

Egypt

Sweden10

No change in attractiveness sinceprevious index

Bulgaria 30

Netherlands

86

ChileIreland

NorwayBrazilCanadaIndia

Although it was knocked off the top spot by Germany in June 2023, Spain
continues to be a strong market for corporate PPAs, with more than 800MW in
more than eight deals during Q3 2023.4 Spain also leads all markets (except theUS) in terms of total capacity of corporate PPAs to date: an impressive 7.4GW.5
This huge supply of projects, 59% of which are solar, has led to bottlenecks in gridconnection queues, however, and some summertime cannibalization of prices— showing the importance of negotiating liquidated damages for delay and fully
understanding profile risk.

UK
Staying at number four in our index, the UK has experienced quite a shift in thePPA market in the past few months, because of some surprising results in thegovernment’s latest Contracts for Difference auction: No offshore wind projects bid
in because recent increases in offshore costs made the low clearing price unviable,so 1.5GW of onshore wind, and 1.9MW of solar photovoltaic (PV), won awards
instead. Consequently, a large number of onshore wind and solar projects weretaken away from potential corporate PPAs, thinning liquidity in the market andplacing some upward pressure on prices.

SwedenSweden has jumped up two ranks into the top 10, as it continues to see appetitefrom corporates in the region. Although predominantly a wind market, historically,
7% of Sweden’s 4.2GW PPAs to date have been solar PV.6 This proportion is
expected to rise because of the scarcity of solar-shaped generation in the Nordic
mix and much higher prices in the sunnier southern grid regions of SE3, andespecially SE4, compared with the windy north — SE1 and SE2 — with much
lower prices.

CanadaCanada has entered the index for the first time as the number of corporate PPAs
build in the Alberta market. There have been at least five deals in the past year
covering 500MW, four from onshore wind projects and one from solar PV. Typicaltenors are 15 years in length. It is hoped that other provinces may follow Alberta’sdirection in terms of opening up for corporate PPAs, further extending the growthacross the rest of Canada.
See page 3 for PPA methodology.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62

01

PPA Index scores

Ranking Market

Previous
rankingMovement vs.
previous

Normalized
score (0–100)

PPA Index
score

PPA market
maturity

PPA future
market score

PPA policy
score

RECAIscore

1

Germany1

100.0

25,458,114.4

74.4

88.2

54.3

71.4

2

Spain

2

99.0

25,200,665.6

82.5

89.1

51.1

67.1

3

US3

90.8

23,107,989.4

100.0

55.1

56.7

73.9

4UK4

82.3

20,946,282.6

73.4

82.2

50.8

68.3

5

France5

78.8

20,067,288.7

64.8

82.0

53.5

70.6

6

Australia

6

66.4

16,908,887.9

76.2

54.2

58.4

70.2

7

Denmark

8

63.6

16,183,026.8

58.1

82.3

51.1

66.3

8

Netherlands

9

61.7

15,705,718.6

61.4

76.0

50.9

66.1

9

Sweden11

58.4

14,871,986.5

63.2

78.6

48.8

61.4

10

Poland10

56.6

14,412,940.2

64.1

64.7

55.7

62.4

11

Finland

12

56.2

14,299,173.4

64.3

70.1

52.9

60.0

12

Italy

13

56.1

14,272,693.354.0

82.9

50.4

63.2

13

India

7

48.7

12,408,130.7

63.2

41.8

68.0

69.2

14

Norway15

42.5

10,810,453.7

57.6

65.0

49.6

58.2

15

Brazil14

34.5

8,789,615.4

62.5

54.3

42.5

60.8

16

Canada28.2

7,181,813.4

43.1

50.2

51.0

65.1

17

Ireland

19

26.2

6,657,809.5

51.0

35.7

57.5

63.4

18

Chile

17

21.5

5,484,434.4

43.5

38.5

52.9

61.9

19

Egypt

22

21.2

5,386,356.5

45.2

38.8

54.4

56.5

20

Belgium23

20.5

5,225,614.0

55.0

31.9

49.8

59.9

21Morocco

24

19.8

5,052,994.9

39.3

37.1

58.9

58.8

22

Colombia

21

18.9

4,817,710.6

50.5

39.4

49.6

48.8

23

South Africa

20

16.7

4,260,528.5

40.8

36.2

53.2

54.3

24

Portugal

18

16.5

4,205,165.4

20.9

65.8

51.3

59.7

25

Japan

16

16.4

4,167,144.7

26.3

47.5

52.7

63.3

26

Greece26

15.3

3,894,946.4

35.9

35.5

49.9

61.1

27

Romania28

14.5

3,688,908.0

35.8

36.0

53.0

53.9

28

Thailand25

12.8

3,270,352.6

40.3

24.3

61.6

54.2

29

Ethiopia27

12.4

3,155,146.3

36.134.6

58.6

43.1

30

Bulgaria

11.2

2,843,785.6

33.9

31.1

55.7

48.4

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6202

PPA market maturity

PPA Index methodology
By analyzing the same 100 markets as in the full RECAI database, the goal is to create a
new ranking that focuses on the attractiveness of renewable power procurement — via
offsite corporate PPAs — rather than the attractiveness of renewable project investment.
The final score for the top 30 markets is calculated from aweighted combination of 12 key parameters, which act as aproxy for corporate PPA potential. The PPA Index focuses onfour pillars (three PPA-specific pillars together with a RECAI
score pillar):

The PPA Index uses a multiplicative formula to prioritize wellrounded markets with strengths in all aspects of corporate
PPA development and integration. For example, this will
mean that markets with zero PPA deals to date will score zero
overall and will not yet be included.

• PPA market maturity — this focuses on activities carriedout within each market in the past decade. It concentrates
on market maturity, looking at past PPA deal frequency andvolume, as well as a quantitative analysis of more recent
PPA deal growth.

However, with strong weighting on forward-looking
parameters, even markets with just a few deals to date could
score highly if significant growth is expected in the corporate
PPA market within the next five years — the horizon of RECAI.

• PPA future market — this forward-looking score assesses
the forecast activity of each market. Forecast power
capacity is a key driver of the magnitude of a market, so
this has a significant weighting on the score as well as
the wholesale power price relative to the levelized costof energy (LCOE) or PPA price in each market. Forecast
capacity installations and a weighted project pipeline scorefrom RECAI are used. The Index has focused on wind andsolar PPAs (together weighted at 93%) as these represent
the vast majority of offsite corporate PPAs.
• PPA policy score — this focuses on the ease of operation ina given market. If a market is to have potential for corporate
PPA growth, supporting government policy must be in placefor efficient and large-scale expansion. This is consideredin the core RECAI, but is also examined here, with a morenuanced focus on PPA supportive policy.
• RECAI score — the overall score yielded by RECAI is also
factored in as one of the fundamental pillars, because it
provides a strong overview of the existing and potential
strength of a market’s renewable energy landscape.

The RECAI PPA Index score (which can be very large) has
been normalized into a score from 0 to 100, to create a moremanageable reference value. The leading market will score
100 — but this does not mean that the market is perfect forcorporate PPAs. It means that, relatively speaking, it is themost attractive market for corporate PPAs across the coming
five years.
Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,
EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data. We are unable
to publicly disclose the exact data sets or weightings used toproduce the indices.
For more information on the services that EY teams provide
to corporates around renewable energy strategies and PPAs,
please refer to our website: www.ey.com/uk/ppa.

(Sources: Pexapark, DLA Piper and EY analysis)
1. Number of PPAs signed in the past five years
2. Total PPA volume in the past five years
3. Number of PPAs signed in the past year
4. Total PPA volume in the past year

PPA future market(Sources: Wood Mackenzie, GlobalData, IRENA, IEA, Pexapark
and EY analysis)
1. Pipeline of projects:
a. Forecast power capacity
b. Forecast installation growthc. Project pipeline
2. Wholesale power pricing:a.	Wholesale power price relative to the historic LCOE
b. Wholesale power price relative to the PPA price

PPA policy score(Sources: World Bank, GlobalData, IEA and EY analysis)
1.	Ease of doing business index (World Bank)
2. Renewable energy imperative:• Renewable energy percentage of total generation• Percentage of population with access to electricity• Forecast energy consumption growth• CO2 emissions

RECAI score(Source: EY analysis)
1. Macro fundamentals
2. Energy imperative
3. Policy
4. Project delivery
5. Technology
Special thanks to Pexapark for providing access to their data.

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 620306

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