Electricity Market Report 2023
Dr. Eren Çam, Energy Analyst for Electricity • Directorate of Energy Markets and Security
The 28th IEEJ Global Energy Webinar, 9 March 2023

Page 1

Global electricity demand growth slowed only slightly in 2022

TWhYear-on-year change in global electricity demand, 2019-2022
1 500
1 250

1 000
7505002500- 250- 500

2019
China2020
United States

India

2021
European Union

2022
OthersNet change

Demand grew by 2%, slightly slower than the average growth rate in 2015-2019 (2.5%) before the pandemic.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 2One third of world’s electricity will be consumed in China by 2025
TWh

Evolution of global electricity demand by region (left) and regional shares (right), 1990-2025
35 000100%
90%

30 00080%

25 00070%
60%

20 00050%
15 000

18%

40%
18%

30%

10 000

20%
5 000
10%0
1990

0%
1995

2000

China

2005

2010

Other Asia

2015

Africa2020

2025

Rest of the world

16%

33%
25%

13%5%10%

1990

2000

2015

2025

United States & OECD Europe

From 2022 to 2025, more than 70% of the additional electricity demand comes from China, India and Southeast Asia.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 3Low-carbon sources cover almost all the demand growth over 2023-2025
TWhChanges in global electricity generation by source, 2021-2025
2 000

1 500
1 000500
0- 500-1 000

2021
CoalGas

2022

2023

2024

Nuclear

Other non-renewables

Renewables

2025
Net change

Renewables and nuclear will meet on average more than 90% of the additional demand over the next three years.
Nevertheless, an accelerated global economic rebound may change the trends in demand and fossil-fired supply.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 4

The share of fossil-fired generation in Japan is set to decrease
1,200

Mt CO2TWh

Evolution of the Japanese generation mix (left) and CO2 emissions from power generation in Japan (right), 2015-2025

1,000

40%

34%

800

32%

700
600
500

400
600

400

9%
28%

32%

33%

10%

6%

200

300
200

1000
2015

26%

22%

14%
2016

2017

Renewables

2018
Nuclear

2019

2020
Coal

2021

2022

OilGas

2023

2024

2025

02015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Other non-res

Low-carbon technologies—renewables & nuclear—are expected to make up 36% of the generation mix by 2025, morethan double their share of 15% in 2015.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 5

Mt CO2

Global power generation emissions reached an all-time high in 2022
Changes in global emissions of electricity generation, 2015-2025

13 40013 200-58+16-202

13 00012 800-53+40+98-166+161

12 60012 400

12 2002015

European Union

2016

2017

Other Europe

2018

2019

United States

2020

2021

Other Americas

2022
China

Europe Americas
India

Asia
Pacific

Other Asia PacificRest ofworld

2025

Rest of the world

Emissions of power generation are set to plateau through 2025.
CO2 intensity of power generation declined in 2022 and will continue to decline.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 6CO2 intensity of power generation increased in the EU in 2022
TWhChange in electricity generation by technology in the European Union in 2022 compared with 2021
0- 20

Nuclear

Hydro

OtherSolarWind

CoalGasSupplydifference-36-78- 40- 60- 80-82+12- 100+26- 120+34- 140-64- 160+41- 180-10- 200
EUEU excl. FranceFranceLow nuclear availability and low hydro output due to drought forced countries in the European Union to burn morecoal and gas in 2022.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 7

Reserve thermal power plants were reactivated in EuropeGW

Evolution of the German gas replacement reserve, 2022-2024
1210Activating plantsfrom the reserve
started in August2022

83.9 GW of alreadyoperational lignite
and hard coalcapacity have theirdecommissioning
dates postponed
to 31 March 202464

20
Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23Apr-23

Hard coalJun-23Aug-23

LigniteOct-23

Dec-23

Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oil

For security of electricity supply, Germany delayed the closure and reactivated plants that make up 15% of its current
fossil-fired generation capacity.
IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 8Wholesale electricity prices increased substantially in many regions

USD/MWh

Annual wholesale prices in selected regions, 2022 and 2017-2021 average
400

300

200

1000avg

2022

Italy

avg

2022

Germanyavg

2022

UnitedKingdomavg

2022

Spainavg

2022

Japan

avg

2022

Norwayavg

2022

Australia

avg

2022

India

avg

2022

United States

Electricity markets were impacted differently across the world — Europe being hit the hardest.

IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 9Key takeaways• Global electricity demand growth slowed only slightly in 2022 amid the energy crisis and exceptional
weather in some regions.
• Low-emission sources will cover the entire total growth in demand from 2022 to 2025, unless anaccelerated economic rebound changes the fossil-fired generation trends.
• Power generation emissions reached all-time high in 2022, and are set to plateau through 2025.
• Global CO2 intensity of power generation decreased in 2022 and will continue to decline. It increasedin the European Union in 2022 due to lower nuclear and hydro output.
• Affordability of electricity has emerged as a major concern among governments• Electricity demand and supply is becoming increasingly weather-dependent, calling for increased
attention to electricity security.

IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 10

IEA 2022. All rights reserved.

Page 11