2012/6/27

The more international communities express their commitment
for disaster reduction, the more people are killed by disasters

International Memorial Symposium“Protecting Lives from Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters”
27 June 2012, GRIPS, Tokyo

10 most deadly disasters in the last 30 years

International cooperation to reduce the lossof lives due to natural disasters
Kenji Okazaki
Professor
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)Tokyo, Japan

NationDisaster
Armenia
Earthquake
Iran
Earthquake
Bangladesh
Cycl/flood
Venezuela
Flood
Iran
Earthquake
Indonesia, others Eq/tsunami
Pakistan
Earthquake
MyammarCycl/floodChina
Earthquake
Haiti
Earthquake

Year Death
1988 25,000
1990 35,000
1991 140,000
1999 30,000
2003 27,000
2004 280,000
2005 80,000
2008 130,000
2008 90,000
2010 230,000

UN and International activities
UN/IDNDR: 1990 -1999
1994: Yokohama Principles
UN/ISDR: 2000 2005: Hyogo Framework
for Action 2005-2015• Deadly disasters occur in developing countries (10/10)• Deadly disasters occur mostly in Asia (7/10 )• Deadly disasters are mostly caused by earthquakes (7/10 )• Deadly disasters have been increasing (6 in 2000’s)
1

Human lives lost by disasters: how cheap?

2

International activities for disaster management•• “One death is a tragedy. A million of deaths are statistics.”(Stalin)Thousands of tragedies behind thousands of deaths.
• Economic value of human lives are not included in theeconomic loss due to disasters
Economic loss of 3.11 Great East Japan Earthquake: Total 17
trillion yen (Value of lost human lives: zero)• “To protect the lives of citizens” is the highest priority of thegovernments.
Are governments making every effort to protect people’s lives
from disasters?
3Most international resources focus on
response (rescue and recovery) activities- Urgent and humanitarian- Covered by mass media becausesuch activities are dramatic

However:• Relief activities cannot recover the lost lives.
Thousands of people are instantly killed in disasters.
• If people survive, recovery and reconstruction would be much easierand less costly.
• Donor countries cannot fund for response any more after repeatingsuper disasters recently
More focus on protecting lives before disasters hit !!
41

2012/6/27

The most important lesson of 2011 Great
East Japan Earthquake Disaster

Inappropriate resource allocation for disasterrisk management“Thousands of people would not have been killed if they would haveevacuated promptly”• Post-disaster > Pre-disaster• People in this region knew the tsunami would strike after a strong
earthquake.
Repeated Tsunamis – Meiji Sanriku Tsunami (1896), Showa Sanriku
Tsunami (1933), Chile Earthquake Tsunami (1960), etc.
• Most people in this region knew “Tsunami Tendenko” (in case oftsunami, you should evacuate promptly by yourself without taking
care of other family members)• Tsunami warning was issued 3 minutes after the earthquake. People
had approx. half an hour or more before the tsunami stroke.
• Municipalities instructed people to evacuate promptly.
Yet, they had many reasons not to evacuate promptly• Engineered > Non-engineered• Hardware (infrastructure and modern technologies)> Software (human power/education)

5

The most important lesson of 1955
Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster

6People are risk-takers in disaster risk management“Thousands of people would not have been killed if theywould have retrofitted their vulnerable houses”• Most of the victims were killed by collapse of their houses• Currently, most of Japanese citizens know that vulnerable
houses may collapse and kill the residents in earthquakes.
• Japan has severe building codes.
• Techniques for retrofitting are available.
• Financial assistances for retrofitting are available.
Yet, people have many reasons not to retrofit their vulnerable
house.
7• People are risk-seekers when the choice involves loss (Prospect
theory, Kahneman & Tversky).
Question : Choose between:
A. Sure loss of $3,000
B. 80% chance of losing $4,000 and 20% chance of losing nothing.
Result: 92% selected B• Future uncertain loss is psychologically much discounted.
• Investment (retrofitting) for safety would be waste if a large
earthquake would not occur soon.
- Life expectancy of a house: approx. 30 years (Japan)- Remaining life expectancy of an investor: 20-50 years- Return period of a big earthquake: hundreds or more years

It is rational for people not to take actions to avoid future disaster risk.
82

2012/6/27

How can we convince people to take actions
before a disaster hits

Disaster education can play an important role
• Capacity building and awareness raising- Local people, particularly children, should understand better
their disaster risk and take appropriate actions to reduce theimpact of disasters• Education, training, and awareness raising• Community-based disaster management• Technology and policy development- Experts should develop affordable and applicabletechnologies, and develop policies for disaster reduction,reflecting the local conditions.

• Policy development and institutionalization for safer
communities• Risk communication- Experts should be able to communicate with local people
with trust in laymen’s language with professional knowledge.
9Education for Disaster Management Professionals by GRIPS
Master’s degree programs on “Disaster Management ”
English program since 2005
• Conducted jointly with BRI (Building Research Institute), PWRI (Public Works
Research Institute), and JICA
• 3 courses: Seismology/Earthquake Engineering, Tsunami, Water-relateddisasters• Target Groups: Technical officials, or researchers in developing countries• Course Duration: 1 year
(October–September)• Approx. 50 students in 2012-2013
Japanese program since 2012
• Target groups: national and localgovernment officials• Course Duration: 1 year (April–March)
Accepting application for 2013 entrance!!
GRIPS Roppongi campus

1110Community Based Disaster Management (CBDM)• Local people are potential victims and assume responsibility inmanaging the risk
• Disasters reflect local conditions, of which local people are wellware• Local people can better understand disaster risk and how to avoid
such risks through risk communication• Participatory decision making process leads to ownership of riskand actions

RADIUS project by IDNDR

Shake table demonstration by UNCRD
123

2012/6/27

Policy paradigm shift is necessary
Proposed cycle for safer communities

Current vicious cycle for unsafer communities

Decrease of victims
and recovery cost

Large casualty/damage
in disasters
Support for recovery
nationally andinternationally

Increase ofvulnerable communities
No incentive forsafer communities

Support for safercommunities
nationally andinternationally

Increase ofsafer communities

Strong incentives forsafer communities
1314

Recommendation for international cooperation
to reduce the loss of lives due to disasters• International commitment to promote proactive efforts
International communities (international organizations such as UNand UNESCO and donor countries like Japan) should assist more
explicitly those countries which are making proactive efforts.
• Fostering more experts who can develop appropriate policies fordisaster reduction and have good skills for risk communication withlocal people• Financial and technical assistance to promote community-based
disaster management• More researches to investigate how to motivate people and local
governments to take actions against disaster• Establishing multi-disciplinary academic approach for disaster risk
management, incorporating economics, politics, sociology,psychology, engineering, etc.
15

Thank you !
Kenji Okazaki
Professor
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 106-8677 Japan
Email: okazakik@grips.ac.jp
Web: http://www.grips.ac.jp

164