Health impacts of planned coal-fired
power plants in JapanPM2.5: tiny, toxic particles that enter deep
into lungs and into the bloodstream

Largest environmental health risk in theworld• Air pollution is responsible for 3 million premature deaths in
the world each year, and 160,000 in Southeast Asia (Global
Burden of Disease Study)• WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen andlabeled “a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths”

Health impacts of air pollution increasing inJapan: estimated 170 deaths per day in 2013
Premature deaths per day in Japan from PM2.5 exposure
1801601401201008060402001990

1995

2000

2005

20102013

Health impacts of coal power plantemissions
PM2.5SO2NO2Dust

Lung cancer
StrokeHeart disease
Respiratory disease
Asthma symptoms

NOx

Low birth weightPower sector dominates SO2 emissions
Japan SO2 emissions by sector (2008)
Others9%
Residential
3%

Coal use in power plants
32%

Transport
26%

Other fuels in industry1%
Oil use in power plants
29%

Most coal-fired power plants planned nearlarge population centersCase studies
Tokyo: 10 projects with 7500MWof capacity are planned within 200
kilometers of Tokyo
Osaka-Hyogo: 15 projects plannedwith 6500MW of capacity

Methodology• SO2, NOx and dust emission estimates for all new power
plants based on emission limits and projected fuel usage• Stack characteristics (height, diameter, flue gas temperatureand velocity) from project documents– Generalized from other projects when project-specific information
not available• Pollutant dispersion modeling using the CALMET-CALPUFF
modeling system recommended by U.S. EPA• Health impact assessment using the largest available
studies on link between air pollutant exposure and risk ofdeath from different diseases

Tokyo-Chiba case study:
Projected increase in daily average PM2.5 levels

Projected increase in annual average PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Projected increase in annual average NO2 concentrations (μg/m3)

Chiba case study: Most affected major cities
3.5
3µg/m3

2.5
2
1.5

10.5
0PM2.5 24-hour max

NO2 24-hour max

Projected increase in annual average PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Hyogo case study: Most affected major cities
1.6
1.4
1.2

µg/m310.8
0.6
0.4

0.2
0PM2.5 24-hour max

NO2 24-hour max

Projected health impacts of power plants
included in case studies
Cause

Tokyo-Chiba
Confidence Osaka-Hyogo
Confidencecase study
intervalcase study
interval
Exposure to PM2.5
Lung cancer
29(12-46)
21(9-33)
Ischemic
54(35-73)
39(25-53)
heart disease
Stroke32(19-44)
23(14-32)
Other
37(23-51)
26(16-36)
cardiovasculardiseases
Chronic
7(4-10)5(3-7)
obstructive
pulmonarydiseaseOther
24(15-34)
17(11-24)
respiratory
diseases
Exposure to183(109-258)
131(78-185)
PM2.5 total
Exposure to NO2
All causes
115(45-166)
102(39-146)
Total
260(138-368)
199(104-282)
Tokyo-Chibacase study
Lowbirthweight births 30

Confidence
interval

Osaka-Hyogocase study

Confidence
interval(9-52)

21(7-37)

Impact over 40 years ofoperation:
18,000 premature deaths

Impacts of Japanese overseas coal power
projects

Projected health impacts of proposed coalfired power plants in Southeast Asia
Preliminary results from ongoing researchCountryVietnam
Indonesia
ThailandPhilippines

Projected premature deaths peryear of operationStudy

21,000

Burden of Disease from Rising
Coal Emissions in Vietnam(Koplitz et al. 2015)

19,000

The Human Cost of Coal
(Greenpeace Southeast Asia 2015)

3,800

Cost of living: Coal power plantwith a threat to the health ofThailand (Greenpeace SoutheastAsia 2015)

2,400

Coal: A Public Health Crisis(Greenpeace Southeast Asia 2016)

Batang: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Projected premature deaths from Batang coal
power plant
cases per year

StrokeIschemic heart disease
Chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease
Lung cancer
Other chronic
cardiovascular andrespiratory diseases
Children’s lower
respiratory infections
Total

Best
95% confidence
estimate interval
340
210-480300
190-410
50
30-68
40
20

17-66
14-32

104-34780

470-1090

RE the mainstay of power generation
investments• Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable energy
use grew more than fossil fuels• In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is
powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline• China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand
growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly
renewable energy

Recommendations• Cumulative health impact assessment needed• Building new coal-fired power plants would lock Japan into
the highest-emitting power generation option for decades.
The long-term health impacts should be fully assessed andfactored in.
• Air pollutant emissions from all large pollution sources
should be disclosed in real-time and on annual basis, likethe U.S. already does.
• Re-think coal-based electricity investment plan in light ofhealth impacts, and rapidly improving economics ofrenewable energy

Thank you!
lauri.myllyvirta@greenpeace.org

微粒子状物質(PM2.5)

Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya areas alreadyamong most polluted in Japan

Evidence of health risks• “American Cancer Society study”: The largest and mostwell-known study on particulate air pollution and risk ofdeath.
• 500,000 adults in 50 U.S. states with different air pollution
levels were followed between 1982 and 1998.
• People living in more polluted environments have asignificantly higher risk of fatal heart and lung disease andlung cancer.

Backup slide: Key emission data for the study
Plant name

CO2 emission (ktonne-CO2/year)

CO2 emission rate(g-CO2 / kWh）

SOX
emissionconcentration
（ppm）
25
18

NOX
emissionconcentration
（ppm）
15
20

Dust
emissionconcentration（mg/m3）6.461538
7

Taketoyo No.5
Takehara New No.1

6420
3160766

Saijo New No.1
Osaki Cool Gen
Unknown
Kaita biomass blend
firing power station
Nagoya No.2
Mizushima
EnergyCenterUnknown
Ako No.1
Ako No.2
Takasago New-No.1

3000
706
672
672

21.0625
8
191919.125
540
40

6.461538
3
1010660
660

19194040

10101873350
33503600

1919191840
161622

Takasago New-No.2

3600

18

Kobe Works New-No.2

3900

Kobe Works New-No.1
Ichihara
Kashima No.2
Chiba Sodegaura No.2
(tentative)
Chiba Sodegaura No.1
(tentative)
Hitachinaka
Kyodo
No.1
Unknown
Yokosuka Power Plant
Unknown
Unknown
Suzukawa
CenterEnergyGas Temperature（℃）

Gas velocity
(m/s)

20090

35.9

10888

18070

20

22818070

20

13

20

5150

90

30

3900

13

20

5150

90

30

6000
3439
6000

2525
2215
15
15

5
55180
180200

7.25

9090
90

30
30
30

6000

2215

5200

7.25

90

30

3900

22

15

51809031.56000
600021.0625
21.0625

19.12519.1256.461538
6.461538

6000
600
600

21.062519
19

19.1254040

6.461538
10
10

692

800
800

767

Stack height(m)Chimney
Diameter(m)7