Japan’s Climate And Energy Policy
and the Status of Coal Power2016.5.20

Kimiko Hirata
International Director, Kiko Network
khirata@kikonet.org
http://www.kikonet.org/
twitter:kimihirata

Climate・Energy Policy Structure
Basic Enviro.Law

Basic Energy Law

Climate Change Law
The Climate PlanThe Energy Plan

(revised every 3 years)(revised every 3 years)
Energy Outlook

Climate Policy

Energy Policy
2MoEMETIEnergy Policy• The Basic Energy Plan（revised in 2014）– Nuclear and coal power 「Important baseload electricity」• Electricity mix for 2030
– Fossil Fuel（coal 26%・LNG 27%）（more than 50%）
– Nuclaer 20-22％、renewables 22-24％
原発事故前10年間平均
石油
12%

2030年の見通し
石油
3%

再生可能エネ
11%
石炭
26%

石炭
24%

再生可能エネ
23%

原発
26%

原発
21%
LNG
27%

LNG
27%

図 電源構成の2030年見通し（出所：資源エネルギー庁）

3Energy Policy• Nuclear (20-22％）is realistic？
– 14 units declare decommission– Capacity factor reduce half in 2030
（40 years lifetime・capacity factor 70%）
– Strong public opposition（2 units under operation）• Target for renewable is too low?
– FIT: a success in adopting solar– After FIT、Re power increase from 11％ to 15％（from 1％ to 4.7％, excluding large hydro）

Policy aims to go back to thepre-Fukushima energy system?

4Climate Policy• The Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures（May 2016）– The plan agreed after the Paris Agreement（After 3 years gap）
～ because of no participation of 2nd CP of the Kyoto P.
– Target

2050
2030
2020

- 80％-26％（2013 base yr）（-18％（1990 base yr）-3.8％（2005 base yr）（+5.8％（1090 base yr）– Policies and measures• Request continuation of voluntary action to industry• No further additional measures
5

Japan’s GHG emission and targets
安倍目標（08年）
3.8％削減（05年比）

温室効果ガス排出量の推移（1990-2013年度）
1,400

1,200

1,000

地球温暖化防止行動計画
0％（90年比）

麻生目標（08年）
15％削減（05年比） 今回発表の目標案
2030年26％削減（13年比）
京都議定書
第1約束期間
6％削減

800

民主党
25％削減
（90年比）

NF3

英国大臣の要請
2030年40％削減（05年比）

HFCs

SF6
PFCs

N2O
CH4

600

CO2400

2050…

2040

2030

2020…

200

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013…

政府目標
2050年80％削減

6

Climate Action Trackerの評価“Inadequate（不適切）”7

Coal power increase in electricity Generation
9.7%（90）→18.4％（00）→25.0％（10）→31.0％（14）NuclearCoalLNG

OilHydro

Geo & RECO2

出典：環境省「2014年度の温室効果ガス排出量（確報値）について」より抜粋・加筆

8

Existing coal power
・42GW
・Many old plants, but small
・New plants: big and many・operation year : less than 20 yrs：55％、less than 30 yrs：80％
Operation yr

Start yr

Capacity（GW）

No.

- 40
30～39
20～29
- 20（計）～1975
1976～1985
1986～1995
1996～

3.54..
4.89
10.47
22.95
41.85

18
121945949

Capacity factor for thermal power
Coal operates fully
coal：80.2％、LNG：67.3％、oil36％（発電所のユニット（号機）ごとの設備利用率は非公開）
石炭火力
80.2％
(+4.6%) ［+5.2%］

100%

LNG火力
67.3％
(+48.0%) ［▲1.3%］

60%

火力全体
61.6％
(+30.0%) ［▲1.1%］

40%

20%

石油等火力
36％
(+37.1%) ［▲15.0%］

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

0%

1990

設備利用率（％）

80%

（年度）

出典：環境省「2013年度の温室効果ガス排出量（確報値）について」より抜粋・加筆

10

CO2 emissions from Coal Power
Generation
Over 270Mt-CO2
from coal(13% of 1990emissions)

250
200
150

In-house power
自家発電
generation
Utilities generation
事業用発電

10050

2014

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

01990

CO2 emission [Mt-CO2]300

出典：総合エネルギー統計より作成

1112

Impact of new construction plan of coal power
Coal Capacity (start year of operation and new plans)（万kW）

Existing plants 94
Units 41,8GW

New plans 48
units, 22.5GW

2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0500.0
0.0

設備容量（運転中）

設備容量（計画中）

13

Impacts of Construction Plans• New Plans：47 units、22,5GW– 17 Small scale plants requires no EIA– Construction rush in 2020
– Fukushima reconstruction and Olympic electricity in 2020
– Developers from different sectors (steel・trade, gas,paper&pulp) ）Under construction

Under EIA

3.17GW

15,05GW• Additional CO2 emissions： 135Mt-CO2– Accounts for 10% of Japan’s total GHG in 1990
– More than half of total GHG emission in 2050 (250Mt-CO2)
which Japan commit 80% reduction
14

Trend of Coal Power Policy in Japan• Kyoto Effects in 2009: New construction plan was once freesd
after entry into force of the KP• New plan has been stopped in 2009
（After the comment of Minister of the Envrionment during the process of EIA) ）• After Fukushima（2012～）: New policy introduction toincentivize coal power generation after Fukushima accident.
• Basic Energy Plan in 2014: Promoting nuclear power & and coal
power simultaneously as ”base load electricity”

massive increase ofnew coal power plans
15

Promotion of Coal Power Generation
after Fukushima
１）Speeding up of Environmental Assessment
The government agreed to simplify and speed up EIA for coal
power plants replacements.

-> Green light for coal construction
２）Tender system for new thermal power
development
The government introduced tender system for thermal power
development to lower the electricity price by widely opened its
bit for new entrants like IPP business operators.

-> push coal rather than gas
16Promotion of Coal Power Generation
after Fukushima3）Electric Industry’s voluntary framework

The government requests industry group to conduct“voluntary framework” to tackle with CO2 in line withJapan’s national GHG target, rather than considering
new instruments.
⇒ “voluntary” not regulation※Utilities association and new entrants announce voluntaryframework（2015.7.17）「0.37kg-CO2/kWh by 2030」
17

New policy measure to restrict coal power
Too much to meet national target in 2030～• New Plants: revise efficiency standard
Coal: Ultra-super Critical （USC）level（generation efficiency ＞42.0％（HHV)

LNG：Combined cycle gas generation level（ generation efficiency ＞ 50.5％（HHV)※However, projects already under bidding process
or EIA process will be excluded.
→ Most plants won’t be affected18

New policy measure to restrict coal power
Too much to meet national target in 2030～• Existing plants: benchmark standards (companylevel)
Indicator 1）Generation efficiency for each fuel（coal41％、LNG48％、oil39％）

Indicator 2） Combined efficiency for all thermal power（44.3％）→Utilities with high coal share will be affected(But joint achievement is allowed)→expected effects: reduction of coal utilization, increase of LNG
share

Voluntary scheme & no information disclosure-> Effectiveness is in doubt

19

High efficient low emission (HELE)
is not clean

電源別CO2排出量
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1000LNGoilcoal【coal】
BAT: 810g/kWh
IGCC: 710g/kWh
IGFC: 約600g/kWh【oil】
平均：695g/kWh【LNG】
汽力：476g/kWh
平均：375g/kWh
複合高効率：341g/kWh…さらにもっと？

天然ガスの約2倍20

Ministry of the Environment• “Not acceptable” in EIA process（2015）
年月

発電所名

企業名

2015.62015.8西沖の山
武豊5号

2015.8千葉袖ヶ浦

2015.11秋田港

山口宇部パワー
中部電力
出光興産，九州電力，
東京ガス
丸紅，関電エネルギー
ソルーション

設備容量（万kW）120
107
200130• But, it turn around the position with
METI’s new policy and cooperation with
METI
→ Virtual “acceptance”
21Summary
・Coal power emits a lot of CO2, even HELE
・After Fukushima, coal was reassessed and pushed
by policies
・A number of new coal plans. Questions arise for
METI’s policy measures. Measures to restrict current
expansion is still missing.
・Coal power have Environmental (climate)risk, healthrisk, and Economic risk.
・At G7, climate and energy is one of the agenda.
Japan should reconsider current energy policy,especially on coal.

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