発刊に当たって一般財団法人建設経済研究所は、1982年の設立以来、我が国の安全で快適な国土の形成及び建設産業の振興に貢献するため、社会資本整備の動向や建設産業に関わる諸課題について調査研究を行い、その結果を「建設経済レポート」として取りまとめています。
今般発刊する「建設経済レポートNo.76」では、以下の内容を取り上げています。
「第1章 建設投資と社会資本整備」では、2023～2024年度の全国及び都道府県別の建設投資額の推計を行うとともに、2035年度までの中長期にかけての全国の建設投資額も推計しました。また、持続的なインフラの維持管理に向け、どのようにDX化を進めるべきか調査しました。
「第2章 建設産業の現状と課題」では、地域の建設企業が果たす役割や経営力の向上に向けた取組に焦点を当て、地域の建設企業が地域活性化、防災及び災害対応のために行うべき方策を探りました。また、コロナ関連融資の利用状況に関するアンケート調査を実施し、建設企業の経営状況を分析しました。さらに、2023年10月から開始されたインボイス制度について、一人親方を対象に制度導入後初めてアンケート調査や取材を行い、制度導入直後の実態や課題を探りました。
「第3章 建設業就業者の現状と課題」では、建設キャリアアップシステムによる技能者の処遇改善に関するアンケート調査を実施するとともに、これまでに蓄積された就業履歴データから技能者の就労範囲を職種別に解析しました。また、建設業就業者数の2035年までの将来予測を職種別に行い、将来どの程度不足するかの需給ギャップを推計しました。
「第4章 公共調達制度」では、公共工事の事務手続におけるデジタル化の現状や発注者と受注者双方に有用と考えられる業務負担を軽減する方策を検討しました。
「第5章 海外調査」では、我が国の人材確保・育成に関する施策立案の参考とするため、欧州の建設労働力の現況と人材確保・育成策について現地調査を行いました。
「建設経済レポートNo.76」が、インフラ整備や建設投資、建設産業に携わる方々やご関心をお持ちの方々の一助となれば幸いです。
最後に、当研究所の調査研究にご理解ご協力いただいている国・地方公共団体や業界団体、民間企業の皆様に厚く御礼申し上げます。
2024年3月
一般財団法人 建設経済研究所理事長佐々木基建設経済レポート No.76©RICE

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第1章

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建設投資と社会資本整備 ····················································

1Theme 1『国内建設投資の動向』 ···································································

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1.国内建設投資の見通し ············································································

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2.都道府県別建設投資の見通し ··································································· 10
Theme 2『建設投資等の中長期予測』 ····························································· 23
はじめに································································································· 23
1.予測の考え方 ························································································ 232.政府建設投資 ························································································ 253.民間住宅投資 ························································································ 27
4.民間非住宅建設投資 ··············································································· 34
5.民間建築補修（改装・改修）投資······························································ 44
6.維持・修繕 ··························································································· 45
7.建設投資等の中長期予測結果 ··································································· 48
Theme 3『インフラ維持管理における DX 化のあり方』 ······································ 50
はじめに································································································· 50
1.国内のインフラ維持管理を取り巻く環境 ····················································· 50
2.DX によるインフラ修繕の現状 ································································· 56
3.地方自治体における新技術活用の取組 ························································ 63
4.地方自治体におけるインフラ維持管理の取組事例 ········································· 66
5.今後の展望 ··························································································· 71
おわりに································································································· 74

第2章

建設産業の現状と課題 ························································ 75

Theme 4『地域における建設企業の意欲的な取組』 ··········································· 75
1.地域建設業の現状と課題 ········································································· 75
2.地域建設企業の経営力向上へ向けた取組状況 ··············································· 75
3.地域建設企業の取組事例 ········································································· 83
4.まとめ ································································································· 97

建設経済レポート No.76©RICE

第 1 章 建設投資と社会資本整備第1章

建設投資と社会資本整備

Theme 1『国内建設投資の動向』
1. 国内建設投資の見通し
当研究所が 2024 年 1 月 12 日に公表した「建設経済モデルによる建設投資の見通し（2024年 1 月）」1に基づいて、2023 年度及び 2024 年度の国内建設投資の見通しについて記述する。

(1) これまでの建設投資の推移
我が国の建設投資額は、高度経済成長期からバブル経済を経て 1992 年度に名目値ベースで約 84 兆円に達した。しかしながら、バブル崩壊以降は減少基調をたどり、2010 年度には約 42兆円まで落ち込んだ。その後は、東日本大震災の復旧・復興事業や東京オリンピック・パラリンピック開催を見込んだ投資需要等により増加基調であった。図表 2 のとおり、2021 年度及び 2022 年度の投資額は実質値ベースでそれぞれ前年度比△2.6%、△4.3%と、新型コロナウイルスによる影響は他産業と比較すると小さかったといえる。これは新型コロナウイルスによる様々な制約を受けながらも工事を進捗させた建設業界関係者の努力の結果である。
近年の民間非住宅分野では、経済安全保障に起因する半導体関連工場の誘致や大都市を中心とした大型再開発など建設計画は豊富にあるものの、大阪・関西万博に向けた工事の集中や2024 年 4 月 1 日から適用される時間外労働の上限規制に起因する人手不足、建設コストの上昇など一筋縄では解決できない数多の問題が顕在化している。また、民間企業の設備投資意欲は旺盛だが、建設工事が絡む建物等の有形固定資産ではなく、ソフトウェア等の無形固定資産への投資が活発な様子がうかがえる。
民間住宅分野では、2000 年代前半の新設住宅着工戸数は 120 万戸近くあったが、2008 年度に 100 万戸を超えたのを最後にして、以降は 100 万戸未満で推移している。総務省の人口推計によると、日本国内の総人口は 2008 年度の 1 億 2,808 万人をピークに減少基調に入っており、総人口及び世帯数の減少に伴って着工戸数も減少していくと見込まれる。
一方で、建築補修（改装・改修）分野は、2015 年度から建設投資額に計上されたため単純比較できないものの、他分野と比較すると堅調な投資が見込まれる。建替えではなく、よりコストを抑えられる改修によって建物を長寿命化させるトレンドや、省エネルギー対策に対する関心の高まり等から投資額は増加基調にあり、今後も引き続き増加していくと見込まれる。
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当研究所ウェブサイト
https://www.rice.or.jp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/20240112_model.pdf

建設経済レポート No.76©RICE

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Theme 5『地域建設業の防災及び災害対応における社会連携』 ···························· 98
はじめに ································································································ 98
1.我が国の災害と地域建設業による災害対応·················································· 98
2.地域建設業の災害対応等を取り巻く環境と社会連携 ···································· 108
おわりに ······························································································ 127
Theme 6『建設産業の経営財務分析』 ··························································· 128
はじめに ······························································································ 128
1.主要建設会社 40 社の決算分析 ······························································· 1282.建設産業の資金繰り動向分析 ································································· 138
おわりに ······························································································ 154
Theme 7『インボイス制度導入が一人親方に与える影響』 ································ 155
はじめに ······························································································ 155
1.前回調査の整理 ··················································································· 155
2.インボイス制度導入に当たっての動向 ····················································· 157
3.アンケート実施前の企業へのヒアリング調査············································· 1644.アンケート調査 ··················································································· 166
5.一人親方へのヒアリング調査 ································································· 175
6.まとめ ······························································································· 179

第3章

建設業就業者の現状と課題 ·············································· 180

Theme 8『建設キャリアアップシステムの普及がもたらす効果』 ······················· 180
はじめに ······························································································ 180
1.建設キャリアアップシステム（CCUS）とは ············································· 180
2.技能者の処遇改善 ················································································ 184
3.CCUS 蓄積データ活用の可能性 ······························································ 201
おわりに ······························································································ 206
Theme 9『建設技術者・技能労働者数の将来推計と需給ギャップ』 ···················· 207
はじめに ······························································································ 207
1.建設技術者数の現状分析 ······································································· 207
2.建設技術者数の将来推計 ······································································· 214
3.建設技術者数の需給ギャップ ································································· 222
4.建設技能労働者数の現状分析 ································································· 225
5.建設技能労働者数の将来推計 ································································· 231

建設経済レポート No.76©RICE

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6.建設技能労働者数の需給ギャップ···························································· 241
おわりに······························································································· 250

第4章

公共調達制度 ····································································· 251

Theme 10『公共工事の事務手続のデジタル化を通じた負担軽減の取組』 ············· 251
はじめに······························································································· 251
1.公共工事の事務手続の流れとデジタル化の概要 ·········································· 251
2.建設業許可・経営事項審査の申請の電子化 ················································ 253
3.入札参加資格審査の申請の電子化···························································· 258
4.公共工事の契約の電子化 ······································································· 262
5.公共工事における履行保証・前払金保証の電子化 ······································· 268
6.公共工事における情報共有、納品の電子化 ················································ 271
7.公共工事の事務手続のデジタル化に関する課題や方策 ································· 278
おわりに······························································································· 280

第5章

海外調査············································································· 281

Theme 11『欧州の建設業における人材確保・育成に向けた取組』 ······················ 281
はじめに······························································································· 281
1.我が国の建設業における労働市場の現況 ··················································· 281
2.欧州の建設業における人材確保・育成への取組 ·········································· 284
3.我が国の建設業における人材確保・育成のあり方 ······································· 304
おわりに······························································································· 308
参照文献······························································································· 309

建設経済レポート No.76©RICE