The 8th AIM International Workshop
13-15 March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Recent Development ofAIM Models
Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Publication

052030(Chap. 5 – 10)

RuralCo Indumm stryerceAIM/Enduse

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Agric Transport
ulture

Average cost for CO22
reduction, yuan/t-C

AIM/Emission

anUrb
Mt-CO25102040

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Rateofofaccumulated
accumulated CO(%)(%)
2 reduction
RateCO
reduction
2

AIM/Bottom-up
AIM/Energy-Economics
AIM/Land-Equilibrium(Chap. 2)

AIM/Local

4040

Without
Counter 30Measures

30

2007

AIM/Country

20750 ppm
10550 ppm
02010

Year

0.0

GDP change (%)

0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
EU

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

AIM/Impact

AIM/CGE-Linkage
AIM/Ecosystem(Chap. 4)

Mitigation of GDP loss
0.2

GDP GDPlosslossfromfromreference
reference casecase(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)(Trillionyen at 1995 prices)

AIM/Global
AIM/CGE (Energy)

USA(Chap. 11)
GDP loss after mitigation
Mitigation from green consumption
Mitigation from taxation policy
Mitigation fromtechnological improvement
Mitigation fromenvironmental investment
CO2 andGDP loss due to CO2
solid waste constraints
without countermeasures2010

02000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
Global CO2 emissions and reduction forstabilization

Japan

AIM/Material

Inventory activity

Recycling
Society

Fossil IntensiveSociety>21

CO2 emission in 2030

AIM/Emission-Linkage

Gt-C

<3

AIM/Land
AIM/Water
AIM/Agriculture
AIM/Vegetation
AIM/Health etc.
(Chap. 3, 12)

FSU

GDP
changeKyoto
with
USAUSA
GDP
changebyby
thetheKyoto
withUSAand without
and without

12-500-500

00 +500+500(kg/ha)(kg/ha)Change in potential productivity of rice

AIM/Trend
10

Changes in potential productivity of rice

(Chap. 13)
8

AIM/Climate

42020322025
20152005
1995
Cambodia
BhutanLaos
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Bangladesh
Vanuatu
Papua New Guinea
Pakistan
Nepal
MyanmarVietnam
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Samoa
Indonesia
Tajikistan
Philippines
India
Fiji
Kyrgyz Republic
French Polynesia
Tonga
China
ThailandIran
New Zealand
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
MalaysiaJapan
Turkmenistan
Nauru
TaiwanAustralia
Korea, DemKorea, Rep
Kazakhstan
Palau
Singapore
Brunei6

CO2 emission per capita(t-C/capita)Year

AIM family(Chap. 1)

AIM/Database(Chap. 14)

Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/Emission-Linkage
AIM/Bottom-up, AIM/Energy-Economics,
AIM/Land-Equilibrium
Recycling
Fossil Intensive
Gt-CSociety
Society404030
2010Without
Counter 30
Measures20750 ppm
10550 ppm
002000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
Global CO2 emissions and reduction forstabilization

0.1
0-0.1
-0.2
-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6JapanUSA

GDP change by the Kyoto withEUFSU-100

and without USA-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100arn m iayaM odmb aiCayssala
Min eppi li d
Ph an
ail RTh o PD she
La ladng
Ba alpam
NeNetkaVianiLS r iads ia
InnedoInnut a
Bhnaiw
RTaDPearKo

Chi nar
Ko

Reau
ep

npa
Ja

bl icioaren
Scceeren0Ref
E 55
0WR
I 55
WG
550
MID

Change in winter wheat productivity from1990 to 2100

Change of productivity (%)

GDP change (%)

AIM/CGE (Energy)AIM/Climate
Atmospheric model, UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model, GCM-RegCM interface-500

0+500

Changes in potential productivity of rice(kg/ha)AIM/Enduse
China, India, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia,
Vietnam, Bangladesh
0.00
100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.001000.00
1100.00
1200.00
1300.00
1400.00
1500.00>=1600.00

2030

Million Ton

15< 33-6
6-9
9 - 12
12 -1515 - 1820

18 - 2140> 210510

CO2 emission intensityfor 2010 in China

Million Ton

Regional distribution of CO2
emissions in India for 2030 inreference scenarioAIM/Material2007
Year(Japan, India, China)

GDP loss after mitigation
Mitigation from green consumptionMitigation from taxation policy
Mitigation fromtechnological improvement
Mitigation fromenvironmental investment
GDP loss due to CO2 andsolid waste constraints
without countermeasures

2010

0.0

Mitigation of GDP loss
0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

GDP loss from reference case
(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

1.2

1.4

AIM/Impact [Country]
GIS data scaled down for
national scale assessment

GIS tool for input datadevelopment(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Global GIS data

Socioeconomic and GHG
emissions scenarios

Input GIS data for impact
assessment models

Model parameters

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation shift potential model(2) Impact/Adaptation assessment(1) Development of input GIS data for model(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

GIS tool for
sub-national
aggregation

Interface tool for visualizing
data on IDRIDIInterface tool for
visualizing data on plain
spatial data viewer

GIS output data of
the impactassessment model

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN Kanto
Tochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

GIS data for sub-national
spatial aggregation

VALUE
12-10-5-523-13-28-6-715
1712-1

AIM/Trend
South Asia

MK: Market First
PO: Policy First250

Afghanistan
BhutanIranNepal
Sri Lanka

Bangladesh
India
Maldives
PakistanSoutheast Asia

200150Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia
Malaysia

Lao
MyanmarPhilippines
ThailandSingapore
Vietnam

East Asia
China
Japan
Mongolia

100

Korea, DemKorea, Rep
Taiwan, China

MK
POSC
SU

Central Asia

50

Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan

Kyrgyz Republic
Turkmenistan

MKPOSCSUMKPOSCSUANZ and South PacificMKPOSC
SU0MK
POSCSUChange in energy-related CO2 emissions
by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

300

SC: Security First
SU: Sustainability First

East Asia

Central Asia

-50
South Asia South East Asia

ANZ andSouth Pacific

Australia
FijiNauru
Papua New Guinea
Tonga
Samoa

Energy related CO2 emissions in subregions of the Asia-Pacific region

New Zealand
Kiribati
PalauFrench Polynesia
VanuatuSolomon Islands

User interface

User

Display of output
with pivot table and chart
Sum of Valu e En ergy_De vic eRem oval
CK1
C K2
COLBLRNON
N ONNON
SFGD
4 ,700,000
1,300 ,00 024 ,528,000
1,752 ,000
4 ,700,000
1,300 ,00 0
24 ,528,000
1,752 ,000
6 ,000,000
26 ,134,533
1,664 ,400
6 ,180,000
27 ,624,834
1,584 ,466
6 ,365,400
29 ,010,707
1,510 ,876
6 ,556,362
30 ,301,836
1,442 ,662
6 ,753,053
31 ,506,418
1,379 ,091
6 ,955,645
32 ,631,543
1,319 ,587
7 ,164,314
33 ,683,447
1,263 ,694
7 ,379,244
34 ,667,680
1,211 ,035
7 ,600,621
35 ,589,232
1,161 ,300
7 ,828,640
36 ,452,618
1,114 ,226

Year_b as e
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
20002001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Importmodule

AIM/Enduse
Database

ExportmoduleExport module

AIM/Enduse Database System (MS Access)Input file of
GAMS Program

AIM/Enduse
GAMS program

Output file of
GAMS Program

AIM/Enduse GAMS Program (GAMS)
Input fileof GIS System

0.00
12.50
25.00
37.50
50.00
62.50
75.00
87.50
100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50>=200.00

0.00
12.50
25.00
37.50
50.00
62.50
75.00
87.50
100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50> =200.00

0.00
6.25
12.50
18.75
25.00
31.25
37.50
43.75
50.00
56.25
62.50
68.75
75.00
81.25
87.50
93.75
>=100.00

AIM/Enduse GIS System (IDRISI 32)

AIM/Enduse databasesystem, optimization
system and GIS

Other Model Development- Local Air Pollution Modelling
Prof. Fujiwara, Kyoto University- Non-CO2 Gas Emission Modelling- Impact Assessment in China and Korea- Models for APEIS and MA
Water, Health, …

Activities- AIM Training Workshop
5-6 September 2002, NIES
- APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
24-26 October 2002, New Delhi- COP8 Side Event
25 October 2002, New Delhi- AIM International Workshop
13-15 March 2003, NIES

Program: The 8th AIM International Workshop
March 13 (Thursday)
9:30-10:00
Session IOpening(Chairperson Prof. P. R. Shukla)
9:30-9:35

Welcome Address
Dr. S. Nishioka (NIES, Japan)
9:35-9:45 Welcome Address
Dr. T. Morita (NIES, Japan)
9:45-10:00 Recent Development of AIM Models
Dr. M. Kainuma (NIES, Japan)
10:00-10:50

Session II

10:00-10:20
10:20-10:40
10:40-10:50

Emission Inventory and Modelling(Chairperson Dr. M. Kainuma)
Emission Inventory and Modelling in China
Prof. X. Hu, Dr. K. Jiang and Dr. H. Yang (ERI, China)
Emission Inventory and Modelling in India
Prof. P. R. Shukla (IIM, India)
Discussions

11:10-12:10 Session II
Emission Inventory and Modelling (Continued)
11:10-11:30
Country Model in Korea
Dr. T. Jung (IGES, Japan) and Prof. S. JO (Andong University)
11:30-11:50
AIM/Enduse Model for Thailand: Effects of CO2 Emission
Constraints
Prof. R. Shrestha (AIT, Thailand)
11:50-12:10
Discussions

13:40-15:00Session III

Emission Modelling(Chairperson Dr. K. Jiang)
13:40-14:00 Local Air Pollution Modelling
Prof. T. Fujiwara
14:00-14:20 Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable
General Equilibrium Model
Dr. R. Sands (PNNL, USA)
14:20-14:40 Non-CO2 Gas Emissions Modelling
Dr. J. Fujino (NIES, Japan)
14:40-15:00 Discussions
15:20-16:30Session IV
Impact Modelling(Chairperson Dr. H. Harasawa)
15:20-15:40 Recent Development of the AIM/Impact Model
Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)
15:40-16:00 Impact Assessment of Forest Influenced by Changing Global Climate
Dr. S. Jeon and Mr. H.C. Jung (KEI, Korea)
16:00-16:20 Database for AIM(Impact Model) /China
Prof. J. Sun and Prof. Z. Li (IGSNRR, China)
16:20-16:30 Discussions
16:50-18:00Session IVImpact Modelling (Continued)
16:50-17:05 Water Saving Measures for Policy Design
Dr. S. You (IGSNRR, China)
17:05-17:25 Impact Model
Dr. Y. Hijioka (NIES, Japan)
17:25-17:45 AIM Country Model
Mr. K. Takahashi (NIES, Japan)
17:45 18:00 Discussions

March 14 (Friday)
9:10-10:20
Session V AIM/Enduse Modelling(Chairperson Dr. R. Sands)
9:10-9:30 Emission Inventory and Modelling in Malaysia
Prof. A.Z. Abidin (Universiti Purtra, Malaysia)
9:30-9:50 AIM/Country Model in South Asia
Prof. R. Pandey (NIES, Japan; IIM, Lucknow, India)
9:50-10:10 The latest version of AIM/Enduse Model
Mr. G. Hibino (Fuji Research Institute, Japan)
10:10-10:20 Discussions
10:30-12:00

Session VI

New Direction of Integrated Modelling(Chairperson Prof. P. R. Shukla
10:30-11:15 New Integrated Modelling with Special Reference to AIM/Ecosystem Model
Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Kyoto University, Japan)
11:15- 11:30 AIM/Trend and AIM/CGE
Dr. J. Fujino (NIES, Japan)
11:30- 11:45 Integration of Emission, Climate Change and Impacts
Dr. T. Masui and Mr. K. Takahashi (NIES, Japan),
11:45-12:00 Discussions

13:30-15:25

Session VII

APEIS (Asian Pacific Environmental Innovation Strategies)
and MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment)(Chairperson Prof. Y.

Matsuoka)
13:30-13:50 Overview of APEIS-IEA (Integrated Environmental Assessment) and MA
Dr. T. Morita (NIES, Japan)
13:50-14:10 Preliminary Results for MA
Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)
14:10-14:25 AIM/Material Japan
Dr. T. Masui (NIES, Japan) and Ms. M. Miyashita (TIT, Japan)
14:25-14:40 AIM/Material India
Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan)
14:40-14:55 AIM/Material China
Dr. H. Yang (ERI, China)
14:55-15:10 AIM/Material India with Natural Resources
Dr. T. Masui and Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan)
15:10-15:25 Discussions

15:45-16:25

Session VIIAPEIS and MA (Continued)(Chairperson Dr. T. Morita)
15:45-16:05 Comparison Study of Innovation
Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan), Prof. P.K. Shukla (IIM, India),
Dr. K. Jiang (ERI, China), Prof. R. Shrestha (AIT, Thailand)
16:05-16:25 Strategic Database and Indicators
Mr. G. Hibino (Fuji Research Institute, Japan)

16:25-17:55

Session VIII

Discussion(Chairperson Dr. Morita)

16:25-17:25 Discussions on APEIS and MA
17:25-17:55 Open Discussions
17:55-18:00

Session IX

Closing(Chairperson Dr. Morita)

17:55-18:00 Closing Address
Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)

Thank you for your collaboration!

Application:
Scenario Analysis
for UNEP/GEO 3
Conventional2032
Policy1995
gC/m2/year05

10

100 1000

CO2 emission intensity

2032