December 201515

New Security Law

70th Anniversary of World War II

Abe’s Hollow Victory?
Public Uproar overCollective Self-Defense

Is Historical Reconciliation Possible?

The New Security
Legislation and Japanese Public Reaction

A Seventieth Anniversary Assessment

Japan’s Security Legislation from an Operational Perspective

Foreign Aid Policy
Rethinking Japan’s
Foreign Aid from a
Security Perspective

Okinawa’s Inconvenient Truths
Abe’s 70th Anniversary Statement
Historical Realism, not Revisionism

Northern Territories
Compromise Possible

Japan Perspectives
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Recent Articles from the Tokyo Foundation Website
No. 15, December 2015

Contents
70th Anniversary of World War II
Is Historical Reconciliation Possible? A Seventieth Anniversary
Assessment (1 & 2) ............................................................................................ 3
Shin Kawashima, Jun’ya Nishino, Tsuneo Watanabe, Yuichi Hosoya
Reference: Statement by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the 70th Anniversary of the
End of the War

Okinawa’s Inconvenient Truths ........................................................................ 31
Yoshitoshi Taira
Abe’s 70th Anniversary Statement: Historical Realism, not Revisionism .......... 35
Taisuke Abiru
Compromise Possible on the Northern Territories ............................................ 38
Masahiro Akiyama

Security Legislation
The New Security Legislation and Japanese Public Reaction ............................ 40
Satoru Mori
Japan’s Security Legislation from an Operational Perspective ........................... 51
Noboru Yamaguchi
Abe’s Hollow Victory? Public Uproar over Collective Self-Defense ................... 56
Katsuyuki Yakushiji
The Objectives of Japan’s New Security Legislation ......................................... 61
Masahiro Akiyama

Foreign Aid Policy
Rethinking Japan’s Foreign Aid: Widening the Scope of Assistance from a
Security Perspective .......................................................................................... 64
The Tokyo Foundation

International Affairs
Can America’s Hedging Strategy Last? ............................................................. 72
Paul J. Saunders

Voices from the Sylff Community
The Socioeconomic Dimension of Irrawaddy Dolphin Conservation ................ 75
Sierra Deutsch
Identifying Effective Prevention and Intervention Strategies
for School Bullying in New Zealand ................................................................. 82
The Tokyo Foundation

70th Anniversary of World War II
November 11, 2015

Is Historical Reconciliation Possible?
A Seventieth Anniversary Assessment (1)Shin Kawashima, Jun’ya Nishino, Tsuneo Watanabe, Yuichi Hosoya

On July 6, 2015, with Prime Minister Abe’s much-anticipated seventieth anniversary statement in the offing, the ninety-fifth Tokyo Foundation Forum explored the challenges of historical reconciliation in the context of Japan’s relations with China, South Korea, and theUnited States. In Part 1 (abridged), the panelists draw on their areas of expertise to outline
the basic issues and their context.
**

YUICHI HOSOYA “Is Historical Reconciliation*
Panelists:

Possible?” This is the topic of our forum today.
Shin Kawashima, Professor,
Graduate School of Arts and SciThe short answer, in my opinion, is “probably
ences, University of Tokyo; Memnot.” However, I don’t want to close off the disber of the Political and Diplomatic
cussion before it begins, so let’s consider some
Review Project, Tokyo Foundation
Jun’ya Nishino, Associate Profesbasic questions. What do we mean by “historisor, Keio University; Member ofcal reconciliation”? What exactly is the probthe Political and Diplomatic Relem, and what are the obstacles in the way ofview Project, Tokyo Foundation
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow
reconciliation? How might we marshal our coland Director of Policy Research,
lective wisdom to overcome those obstacles?
Tokyo Foundation
We’ll start with presentations from ourModerator:
panelists explaining their basic perspectives on
Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio
University; Senior Fellow and Subthe issue. Let’s begin with China. Mr.
leader of the Political and DiploKawashima, you’re a member of the Advisory
matic Review Project, Tokyo Foundation
Panel on the History of the 20th Century andon Japan’s Role and the World Order in the
21st Century, which drew up recommendations
for Prime Minister Abe’s seventieth anniversary statement. You were also a contributor to the Japan-China Joint History Research Report, and you’ve been involved
in dialogue with Chinese historians in connection with the Sasakawa Japan-China
Friendship Fund. What have you come away with from these experiences?
3

70th Anniversary of World War II
The Long Road to Closure with China
SHIN KAWASHIMA In a way, it’s verboten for historians themselves to make attempts at historical reconciliation or at reconciling different interpretations of history. But various circumstances have conspired to get me involved. It’s been alearning experience, and some of the lessons have been painful.
I’ve found that historians themselves—even Japanese and Chinese historians—
are quite capable of dialogue. But I’ve come to have serious doubts regarding thedegree to which such dialogue can benefit society as a whole.
The members of the joint history project, for example, drew up a report on thebasis of their dialogue. As soon as people in government—especially the Chinese
government—saw the report, though, they started bombarding it with criticism. As
one of the project’s sponsors, the Chinese government
insisted that certain parts of the report couldn’t bemade public. So, those parts were redacted from theofficial Chinese version, and as a consequence of thosechanges, it was no longer the same report. Media reports, in addition to further distorting the findings,
simply focused on the differences with the Japaneseversion. As a consequence, whatever progress wemade through dialogue was lost. This is just one example, but it illustrates the basic problem, which isthat historical issues take on a completely different
cast depending on whether they’re being discussed at
the academic, government, media, or grassroots level.
Meanwhile, recent political developments havemade things more difficult. For example, the Chinese government has applied to
UNESCO to have historical materials on the Nanjing massacre and the “comfort
women” added to the World Heritage list, and the application is scheduled to bereviewed in September. Beijing has adopted a policy that puts these historical issues
with Japan front and center, not only domestically but externally as well, making
them the focus of public diplomacy and propaganda campaigns. Under the circumstances, you can’t help but wonder what historians like us can possibly accomplish.
People who specialize in reconciliation issues often say that the first step is forthe parties to “forgive but not forget.” But it seems to me that neither China nor
South Korea has arrived at that stage with regard to Japan. Both the government
and the general public are still at the stage of “We won’t forgive, and we won’t
forget.”4

70th Anniversary of World War II
Ambiguities of the Japan-ROK Basic Treaty
HOSOYA What about Japan and South Korea? This year a series of events were
held in places like Tokyo, Seoul, and Jeju to commemorate the fiftieth anniversaryof diplomatic ties between Japan and the Republic of Korea. Mr. Nishino, you’ve
probably attended quite a number of those events.
JUN’YA NISHINO My field of specialization isn’t history per se but international
politics, with a focus on the Korean Peninsula. However, my work does involvearchival research in contemporary history. As I see it, the issues surrounding reconciliation with South Korea, as compared with
China or the United States, are unique in the sensethat Korea was never technically at war with Japan.
In the context of the seventieth anniversary of Japan’ssurrender, the main focus of reconciliation tends to be
Japan’s role in World War II. But for the Koreans, it’s
about the three and a half decades under Japanesecolonial rule, from the annexation of Korea in 1910
until the end of World War II.
Japan and South Korea signed the Treaty on Basic
Relations on June 22, 1965, and diplomatic ties werenormalized six months later in December. The normalization process took fourteen years of negotiation.
To reach an agreement, the two sides had to settle ona very ambiguous formulation concerning the period of colonial rule. Article 2 of
the treaty states, “It is confirmed that all treaties or agreements concluded between
the Empire of Japan and the Empire of Korea on or before August 22, 1910, arealready null and void.”Japan’s interpretation is that while the signing of the new treaty in 1965 invalidated the Japan-Korea Treaty of 1910, the older document was legal until then,thus giving legal status to Japan’s annexation and colonial rule of Korea. The South
Koreans maintain that treaty was illegal from the start, and therefore that Japan’s
annexation of Korea was a violation of international law. After fourteen years, they
were still unable to bridge this gap, so they came up with a way of wording it thatwould pass muster with lawmakers on both sides. Still, many South Koreans were
unhappy that the text of the treaty contained no expression of remorse or apology.
But then, in 1998, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and President Kim Dae-jungsigned a joint declaration that, as I see it, completed the task of historical reconciliation, at least in a formal sense. The declaration records Minister Obuchi’s “deep5

70th Anniversary of World War II
remorse and heartfelt apology,” along with President Kim’s appreciation of theprime minister’s statement and affirmation of the need for both countries to “overcome their unfortunate history and to build a future-oriented relationship basedon reconciliation as well as good-neighborly and friendly cooperation.” You cansense a generosity of spirit on the South Korean side.
So why are the same issues still being talked about today? There are reasons on
both sides, but when I come back to this issue, I’ll discuss how the situation isviewed in South Korea.
Realities of the Japan-US RelationshipHOSOYA Next, I’d like to ask Mr. Watanabe to talk about Japan’s postwar recon-

ciliation with United States. You spent ten years at a Washington think tank from1995, and you’re one of a precious handful of researchers here in Japan who really
understand what’s going on in the minds of US policymakers.
TSUNEO WATANABE My work centers on the study
and analysis of Japan-US relations. I’m not a historianby training, so I’ll be approaching the subject by discussing how Americans view these historical issues,
and also how the Japan-US alliance and the international order factor into our interpretation of history.
Of the countries we’re talking about today—Japan, China, South Korea, and the United States—
which one stands out from the others? The answer,
obviously, is the United States. America is the hegemonic power that has sustained the world order since
the end of World War II.
One of the prime targets for nationalists who object to the “self-flagellation” of mainstream postwar Japanese historians is theTokyo War Crimes Trial. But a wholesale rejection of the tribunal and its conclusions is tantamount to a rejection of postwar US leadership and the Japan-US alliance. This would provide the perfect opening for those powers that would welcome
a breakdown in Japan-US relations. The Japanese can’t afford to lose sight of thefact that the United States is essential to the current world order, and that the Japan-US partnership has served both our interests well over the past seven decades.
If we lose sight of that and reject the foundations of the current international order,
the discussion could veer in a direction that we’ll live to regret.
In the West, the mainstream media’s recent coverage has focused on whether
670th Anniversary of World War II“historical revisionists” in Japan are seeking to justify Japanese aggression in China
in the 1930s. There’s no denying that there is a small minority in Japan who takethat position. In every country, there are those who attempt to whitewash the past.
And since Japan is a democracy and upholds freedom of speech, anyone is free toexpress such views.
What’s hard to understand is why this minority view should provoke such an
extreme reaction in the Western media. It would be one thing if Japan were behaving in a manner its neighbors found threatening—say, by building up its militaryor expanding its territorial claims or challenging the existing world order—but
Japan isn’t doing any of those things.
Some articles in the Western media have labeled Prime Minister Abe a revisionist. Abe is certainly a conservative at heart, but he’s also a dedicated supporter of
the Japan-US alliance and the postwar international order built by the UnitedStates. Far from challenging that world order, he has made it clear that his government supports it vigorously.
Historical revisionism is an international issue insofar as an interpretation ofhistory that justifies past aggression could also justify future challenges to the international order. In that context, people need to keep in mind that in East Asia,
Japan is not the country that’s causing widespread alarm by brandishing its military might in an apparent bid to alter the international status quo. It’s China—
which is, paradoxically, the country that is making the most noise over Japaneseinterpretations of history.
The other major point I would stress is that historical reconciliation is an ongoing process. We need to accept the fact that differences over the interpretation ofhistory are going to continue cropping up from time to time, and when they do, we
have to respond in a levelheaded manner, taking into account our own interests
and the ramifications of our response for the international order.
In February this year, Greece began pressing Germany for World War II reparations amounting to 162 billion euros, including repayment of a loan that Nazi
Germany forced the Bank of Greece to extend to the German occupiers. Most
people felt the demands were outrageous, but the German government reacted ina calm and collected manner, pointing out that Germany and Greece had long sincereached a political and legal settlement with regard to war damages and repaymentof the loan. If instead the Germans had waxed defensive and tried to minimize theirculpability, things could have gone badly for them. We need to learn how to respond to accusations and demands in a levelheaded fashion.
I agree with Mr. Hosoya in thinking that historical reconciliation with China
or South Korea will not be easy, but that doesn’t mean we should give up. The best7

70th Anniversary of World War II
way of dealing with this issue is to keep our focus on minimizing the damage tothe nation’s image and interests.
Past Efforts and Challenges
HOSOYA Thank you for the important suggestions in all of your presentations.

Next I’d like to ask four questions. The first three pertain to points Prime Minister
Abe made at a press conference in January concerning his planned seventieth-anniversary statement. It seems to me that these are vital to the issue of historicalreconciliation.
First: What would be the best way for Japan to officially sum up its deep regret
regarding the war? This is something our Asian neighbors are watching closely.
Second: What has Japan achieved in the seventy years since World War II?
What efforts has it made to bridge the gaps with other nations’ perceptions ofhistory and achieve reconciliation?
Third: Given the answers to the first and second questions, what policies should
Japan adopt henceforth?
The fourth question is one I would like to pose myself. What sort of historicalassessment of the war are you expecting from Prime Minister Abe in August, when
he gives his statement to mark the seventieth anniversary of Japan’s surrender?
Starting with question one, then, let me ask each of you how you believe weshould assess Japan’s role in the war with respect to China, South Korea, and theUnited States. Mr. Kawashima, let’s start with China.
KAWASHIMA Mr. Nishino mentioned that Tokyo and Seoul have already achieved
reconciliation at the official level, and this is essentially true for Japan and China
as well. In 1995, Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama issued a statement expressing
the government’s “deep remorse” and “heartfelt apology” for the damage and suffering Japan caused, and Prime Minister Jun’ichiro Koizumi adopted the samewording in 2005. Although there was no immediate response from China, Premier
Wen Jiabao clearly acknowledged these expressions of remorse and apology andindicated China’s appreciation in a speech to the Japanese Diet on April 12, 2007.
So, at least as far as statements by government leaders are concerned, you could
say that Japan and China have already gone a long way toward historical reconciliation.
Apart from such statements, there’s also a group of four basic bilateral documents: the 1972 Joint Communiqué, the 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, the1998 Joint Declaration on Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation
for Peace and Development, and the 2008 Joint Statement on Comprehensive Pro8

70th Anniversary of World War II
motion of a “Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests.” The 1972 Joint Communiqué set the tone by expressing Japan’s remorse over
the war,1 and each subsequent document reaffirmed that sentiment. The 1998 Joint
Declaration went further and affirmed Japan’s commitment to uphold the Murayama Statement of 1995. All of these are official documents that were agreed on
and adopted by the Japanese and Chinese governments. It’s useful to distinguishthese two different levels: on the one hand, the anniversary statements by prime
ministers expressing both “remorse” and “apology,” and on the other hand, thebilateral documents that have focused on remorse—albeit the two intersect in the1998 Joint Declaration.
As to an assessment of Japan’s role in World War II, that’s a more complex
question. Diplomatic relations between modern Japan and China go back to the
Sino-Japanese Friendship and Trade Treaty of 1871. From then until the First Sino-Japanese War [1894–95], the two counties were on equal terms. But in the wakeof that conflict, the relationship became an unequal one, as Japan took control of
Taiwan and Penghu and concluded an unequal treaty with the Qing regime. Evenso, relations didn’t deteriorate irrevocably at that time. The two nations were bothbent on modernization, and Japan, which had already established a modern state,provided a model that China could follow. During this period, many Chinese scholars traveled to Japan to study and familiarize themselves with the workings of amodern state, including its laws, its organs of government, the concept of constitutional monarchy, and so forth.
The big turning point for Japan-China relations in the modern era came with
the Twenty-one Demands that Japan submitted to China in 1915. The demands
triggered a widespread anti-Japanese backlash in China, including a nationwide
boycott of Japanese goods, and led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral ties. All of
this helped fuel the radical May Fourth Movement.
Mainstream Japanese historians tend to see Japan’s China policy in the 1920s
under Foreign Minister Kijuro Shidehara as a time of conciliation and nonintervention, characterized by support for the Washington Naval Treaty. But Chinese
historians take the view that Japan waged a consistent and continuous campaign
of aggression against China from the Meiji era on, marching headlong toward war
as part of an imperialist policy toward the mainland.
This perception gap widens when you get into the 1930s. Chinese historians
The English translation reads, “The Japanese side is keenly conscious of the responsibility
for the serious damage that Japan caused in the past to the Chinese people through war,and deeply reproaches itself.”—Ed.

1

9

70th Anniversary of World War II
talk about the Fifteen Years War as a single historical event starting with the Manchurian Incident in 1931 and continuing until Japan’s surrender in 1945. This isconsistent with the Chinese focus on Japanese aggression as the keynote of Japan-China relations. On the other hand, many Japanese scholars take the view thatthe conflict in Manchuria ended with the Tanggu Truce in 1933, and that the following years, up the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937, weremarked by efforts toward peace; it was not a continuous war of aggression.
One of the biggest perceptions gaps pertains to the outcome of World War II.
The Chinese see it as the triumph of China over Japan, whereas most Japanese havethe idea that Japan was defeated by the United States. This is a gap that’s very
difficult to bridge.
These historical differences extend to attitudes toward the United Nations. The
Chinese still equate the UN with the Allied powers of World War II. As they see it,
China was given a permanent seat on the UN Security Council as a key member ofthe winning alliance, and they don’t see how Japan, as one of the defeated Axis
powers, could possibly be accorded the same privilege. I personally feel that Japan
has more than earned the right to a permanent seat, given its contributions to postwar international society, but that is not how the Chinese view things.
While I do think it’s possible for historians to narrow the perception gap withregard to the events leading up to the war by sharing and discussing the documentary evidence, that’s not the same thing as altering the government’s version of
events or the way it wields that interpretation in the context of diplomatic relations. We need to keep in mind that for Beijing, historical reconciliation isn’t anabsolute, freestanding issue; its aspect changes from one era to another because it’s
linked to such factors as domestic politics, foreign policy, overall relations withJapan, and relations with the rest of East Asia.
NISHINO South Korean attitudes about World War II are still heavily tinged bybitterness and regret at not having been able to join in the struggle. History museums in South Korea almost invariably feature exhibits on the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea, which was established in Shanghai in 1919 as an
outgrowth of the March 1 Movement for independence. In 1941, the Provisional
Government formed the Korean Liberation Army, and it was preparing to send
troops to take part in operations within Korea when Japan surrendered to the
Allies. There’s still a strong belief among the South Koreans that history might havetaken a very different course if the KLA had joined with the Allies in fighting Japan.
To be frank, there’s some controversy as to how to classify the so-called Provisional Government. Internationally, it’s usually treated as a political organization,rather than a government in exile, so it’s a complex issue for the South Koreans.
1070th Anniversary of World War II
As I mentioned before, Japan’s annexation of Korea is one of the key sticking
points in terms of historical reconciliation between Japan and South Korea. The
1965 treaty glossed over the issue of legality with ambiguous language, and it
didn’t reemerge as a serious bone of contention until the beginning of this century.
Recently, there’s been a growing tendency within South Korea to question theentire process by which the treaty was concluded. Signing and ratification took
place under the authoritarian regime of President Park Chung-hee [1962–79],
which suppressed the opposition by force, including those protesting the normalization of ties with Japan. Moreover, the final treaty was disappointing to South
Koreans in that it incorporated no expression of remorse or apology from theJapanese government. The amount of economic aid pledged by Japan fell short of
expectations as well. Of course, most South Koreans today acknowledge the rolethat Japanese “seed money” played in hastening South Korea’s economic development, but there’s a widespread sense that Seoul should have received something
more important. This is the origin of the historical divide that’s plagued the Japan-Korea relationship in recent years.
Another key issue at the time of the 1965 treaty was whether Japan would
recognize Seoul or Pyongyang as the legitimate government of the Korean
Peninsula and whether Japan would have the latitude to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea at some point in the future. This is the issue addressed by
Article 3 of the Treaty on Basic Relations. These issues were embedded in the bilateral relationship when the treaty was signed, but they’ve only surfaced fairly
recently.
So, is reconciliation possible? If so, how long will it take? These are the questions we’re addressing today. I think we need to face the fact that a complete historical reconciliation between Japan and South Korea is going to be very difficult.
But in terms of our relationship with the Korean Peninsula, it seems to me that if
the North and South are united, the face of Korean nationalism is likely to change.
So, we still need to think about historical reconciliation in the context of building
a relationship with a reunited Korea, and it seems to me that the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II, which is also the fiftieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Japan and South Korea, is good opportunity to examine these issues thoroughly.
History in the Cold Light of Today’s Realities
WATANABE In terms of historical interpretation, Japan’s relationships with China

and South Korea are obviously very complex. The Japan-US relationship is fairly
11

70th Anniversary of World War II
simple by comparison. But Japanese feelings toward America are slightly more
complicated. I think the key is how we come to terms with it ourselves.
Going back to the Tokyo Trial, I think the majority of Japanese understand
why Japan, having lost the war, would be held accountable for the war crimes it
committed. At the same time, there are people who question why the United Stateshasn’t been similarly held to account for its massacre of civilians in violation ofinternational law in the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the firebombing of Tokyo.
Japan has nationalists on the left as well as on the right. Rightwing nationalists
are basically conservative and tend to support the Japan-US alliance. But this brandof nationalism also has a tendency to justify the past and to vilify China and South
Korea, and in its extreme form, it fuels animosity toward the United States as well.
There’s also a strain of anti-US nationalism on the left, represented by some ofthose leading the protests against Abe’s security bills. So, there’s a potential for
anti-Americanism on both the right and the left.
Any official statement regarding the past has to take full account of the importance of the Japan-US relationship. We need to realize that there are forces out
there ready and eager to exploit any potential rift between Japan and the UnitedStates. And that would be bad for Japan and for the world as a whole.
Before the war, Japan isolated itself by failing to grasp or ignoring the fact thatthe world was changing and the tide was turning toward international cooperation.
But since the war, Japan has taken a dramatically different course. For example,
Japan is one of 190 states that are currently bound by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which came into force in 1970. Under the treaty, nonnuclear states like
Japan agreed never to acquire nuclear weapons, while the nuclear states—the
United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China—committed themselves to pursuing nuclear disarmament. Japan has the technological ability to develop nuclear
weapons if it wanted to, but it has pledged not to. This is a pretty important factto keep in mind.
Any summation of Japan-US relations in the seven decades since the war naturally entails a review of the path taken by Japan in the postwar era. A review
guided solely by wishful thinking, divorced from international reality, could easily
open up a Pandora’s box. Some of what comes out of it could seek to undermine
the foundations of the US-led international system on which we depend. We needto trim our expectations to fit this reality, recognizing that life in the real world is
not always going to match our ideals.
Unlike the United States, neither China nor South Korea was a democracy at
the time when it made peace with Japan after World War II. So, even though our1270th Anniversary of World War II
governments reached an agreement, there was never sufficient discussion or understanding among the general public. The United States is a democracy that upholds
freedom of speech and, since World War II, Japan has also built a democratic society conducive to free debate, so we’ve been able to have a relatively open discussion
regarding historical interpretations and inconsistencies. That’s one reason reconciliation with China and South Korea has been more difficult than with the UnitedStates.
(Abridged and adapted from the transcript of the 95th Tokyo Foundation Forum,
July 6, 2015.)

13

70th Anniversary of World War II
November 30, 2015

Is Historical Reconciliation Possible?
A 70th Anniversary Assessment (2)Shin Kawashima, Jun’ya Nishino, Tsuneo Watanabe, Yuichi Hosoya

On July 6, 2015, with Prime Minister Abe’s much-anticipated 70th Anniversary Statement in the offing, the Tokyo Foundation held a forum to explore the challenges of historical reconciliation in the context of Japan’s relations with China, South Korea, and theUnited States. In Part 2 (abridged), the panelists review progress and setbacks to date anddiscuss what it will take to complete the reconciliation process.
***

YUICHI HOSOYA Let’s turn now to my second question: How should we assess

Japan’s postwar record? What have we done—and what haven’t we done—toachieve historical reconciliation over the past seven decades? We’ll begin with Japan-China relations.
SHIN KAWASHIMA China celebrates its victory in World War II on September 3,
and this year it will be marked by a military parade. Why does China use this date,rather than August 15, when Japan surrendered? This goes back to the fact thatJapan officially signed the Instrument of Surrender on September 2 and that a victory parade was held by the Kuomintang government the following day in Chong­qing. The Communist-led People’s Republic of China that later drove the Kuomintang off the mainland initially marked China’s victory over Japan on August 15 butlater moved the date to September 3 to align with the Soviet practice. The PRC has
also designated December 13 as a national day of remembrance for the Nanjing
incident.
In assessing our bilateral ties, let’s start with a quick overview of the postwar
period.
When Japan surrendered in 1945, there were more than a million Japanese
troops in China, and the Chinese set about disarming and repatriating them in abusinesslike fashion with a minimum of fuss. One reason was that neither the ruling Kuomintang nor the rival Communists wanted to turn the Japanese soldiersagainst them.
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70th Anniversary of World War II
On October 1, 1949, the Communist Party founded the People’s Republic ofChina, with its capital in Beijing. Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang, meanwhile, fled
to Taiwan and declared Taipei the temporary capital of the Republic of China.
From then on there were essentially two Chinese governments. Japan had to choose
one with which to negotiate a peace and establish official diplomatic relations.
Both Chinas wanted Japan’s recognition, but with the Cold War escalating andspreading to East Asia, Tokyo had no alternative but to recognize Taipei as the legitimate government of China.
Since the end of the war, Chiang Kai-shek had advocated a “dualistic” view of
prewar Japan, arguing that the Japanese people and the Japanese military were two
separate entities. According to his way of thinking, responsibility for the war lay witha clique of militarists. The Japanese people and even the majority of rank-and-filesoldiers were victims, like the Chinese. Mao Zedong adopted the same viewpoint.
That said, Chiang Kai-shek had decided early on to seek reparations from Japan and had calculated damages amounting to more than $51.5 billion. But as USpriorities for Japan and the rest of the region shifted, the Allied powers agreed inprinciple to forego compensation, and under the Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty concluded on April 28, 1952, the Republic of China waived all claims to reparations.
Over the next two decades or so, the watchword in Japan-ROC relations was
the saying “repaying malice with virtue,” a reference to Chiang Kai-shek’s magnanimity. Until Chiang Kai-shek’s death in 1975, virtually every Japanese politician

From left: Shin Kawashima, Jun’ya Nishino, Tsuneo Watanabe, and Yuichi Hosoya.

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70th Anniversary of World War II
who met with him would at some point recite that saying as a kind of mantra ofgratitude for Chiang’s magnanimity. Chiang, for his part, never mentioned Japan’srole in the war. So, where the two countries’ political leaders were concerned, “repaying malice with virtue” seemed like a workable formula for postwar reconciliation and bilateral relations.
Beijing also embraced the theory that the Japanese people were innocent of themilitarists’ crime as part of its strategy to weaken the influence of Taiwan and theUnited States in Japan. The idea was to enlist influential pro-Chinese figures in theprivate sector to lobby for eventual recognition of the Communist government andprovide support for Japan’s leftist and anti-American forces. This was the origin of
the Japan-China friendship movement. From Beijing’s standpoint, the overriding
goal was improving China’s strategic position vis-à-vis Japan and the United States,
and in this context, the issues of wartime responsibility were secondary.
In this way, the governments of mainland China and Taiwan both downplayed
the issues of wartime responsibility in their dealings with Japan as they competedwith one another for Japan’s friendship in the 1950s and 1960s. Back home, however, they were both disseminating anti-Japanese propaganda through the schools.
That’s because the CPC and the Kuomintang both based their claims to legitimacy
on their role in resisting and defeating Japanese aggression.
Meanwhile, most Japanese historians and other intellectuals of the period werehighly critical of Japan’s prewar and wartime conduct and wrote passionately
about its wartime responsibility. Unfortunately, in those days there was little interaction or exchange at this level between Japan and the Republic of China, andvirtually none between Japan and Communist China, with which it had no diplomatic ties. This is one reason Japan’s reconciliation with the rest of East Asia gained
so little ground at the grassroots level.
Another reason is that Taiwan wasn’t a democratic society when it normalized
relations with Japan in 1952, and the same was true of China in 1972. In otherwords, when our East Asian neighbors made peace with Japan, their people weren’t
actively involved in the decision-making process. This is one key difference between
reconciliation in East Asia and in Europe after World War II. As democratic mechanisms have developed among our East Asian neighbors, their societies have begun
demanding a renewed settlement of postwar accounts, both internally and externally. However much we protest that those issues have been settled legally anddiplomatically, the East Asian public isn’t going to listen. This is the situation thatbegan to confront Japan from the 1980s on, as democracy took hold in South Korea
and Taiwan, and public opinion began to play a bigger role in Chinese society.
Japan established diplomatic relations with the PRC in 1972, and it began
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providing official development assistance in 1979. Deng Xiaoping, who was pursuing a pragmatic policy of economic reform and liberalization, believed that China
should acknowledge Japan’s economic seniority and learn from it, but without
forgetting the lessons of history. During the 1980s, the economic relationship waslargely a one-way street, dominated by Japanese ODA. So whenever historical issues threatened to rock the boat, Japan could usually resolve them by offering
economic concessions.
By the 1990s, however, Japan’s economic power was declining relative to China’s, and Tokyo was cutting back on its ODA. As a result, Japan lost its economic
leverage, and with it, the ability to neutralize tensions over historical issues. These
trends accelerated in the twenty-first century. As Japan’s economic contribution
became less important, the historical aspects of the relationship came to the fore
until eventually historical and territorial issues completely dominated the diplomatic discourse.
The courts have compounded the problem. Under the 1972 joint communiquéestablishing diplomatic relations between Japan and the PRC, Beijing renounced
any claim to reparations, but the courts originally interpreted this as applying only
to the state, not to private entities, so there was still the potential for individual
Chinese plaintiffs to claim damages. But in the first decade of this century, both theTokyo High Court and the Japanese Supreme Court ruled that China had waived
all private claims as well. This had serious repercussions. Since issues of wartime
responsibility could no longer be deliberated and settled in the courts, they cameunder the purview of society and politics. That’s when Japan and China began
launching joint research projects and engaging in historical dialogue at various
levels. The rejection of private claims by the Japanese courts may also have influenced the Chinese courts to begin considering such cases.
I think what all of this illustrates is the degree to which Beijing’s strategies, its
economic relationship with Japan, and a host of other factors have affected theimportance it places on these issues of historical interpretation and reconciliation.
Of course, there was also an increase in dialogue and exchange, including joint
research projects, which have helped to advance reconciliation on some levels.
There were methods and mechanisms in place to prevent the escalation of problems, and these functioned to some degree. Unfortunately, those mechanisms have
gradually been lost, and the problems have escalated. At the government level,
reconciliation hit a high-water mark with Wen Jiabao’s speech before Japan’s National Diet on April 12, 2007. But things turned sour after that, and in the meantime, Beijing’s foreign policy underwent a substantial shift. We really need to startputting our heads together to salvage the situation.
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HOSOYA Thank you for a very fresh perspective on these issues. Let’s turn now to

relations between Japan and South Korea during the past seven decades.
JUN’YA NISHINO At the risk of oversimplifying, I would characterize the basic
storyline as one of ongoing progress.
For the first two decades, from 1945 to 1965, Japan and Korea had no diplomatic ties. Bilateral talks began around the time the San Francisco Peace Treaty
was concluded, but for fourteen years Tokyo and Seoul were unable to overcome
their differences on the matter of Japan’s annexation of Korea. In 1965, they finallyresolved them by means of ambiguous wording, as I explained earlier. The twocountries’ leaders made a decision to put economic interests and security considerations first and deal with historical issues later. The South Korean government wasdesperate to speed up economic development. The Japanese government believedthat an economically strong and politically stable South Korea was essential to
Japan’s security. The interests of the two governments coincided, and that’s why thenegotiations finally succeeded.
Those objectives have by and large been achieved. The South Korean economy
developed rapidly, and in the late 1980s democratic government was established.
Since then, South Korea has emerged as a highly dynamic economy and matured
as a democracy. Partly as a consequence of this evolution, Japan–South Korea relations have run into the same sort of problems that Mr. Kawashima has just mentioned in connection with democratization.
I would argue that in the 1990s, just after the end of the Cold War, Japan madea serious, good-faith effort to grapple with the historical issues that the 1965 treaty
had placed on the back burner. The 1993 Kono statement confronted the comfort
women issue, and that was followed by the establishment of the Asian Women’s
Fund and the Murayama statement of 1995. These efforts helped bring about the1998 Japan–Republic of Korea Joint Declaration.
But during the following decade, historical controversies surged to the fore
again. From the South Korean viewpoint, the blame for this lay with Prime Minister Jun’ichiro Koizumi’s annual visits to Yasukuni Shrine between 2001 and 2006.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Naoto Kan issued a statement in August2010 marking the centennial of Japan’s annexation of Korea. It didn’t gain muchattention in Japan, which is a shame because it was actually one of the more important foreign-policy initiatives taken by the government while the Democratic
Party of Japan was in power. It’s a strong declaration of Japan’s remorse for the eraof colonial rule and its determination to make amends.
This is my take on the last seven decades of Japan-Korea relations. I think a lotof people in Japan would agree with my interpretation in its general outlines, but
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an increasing number of South Koreans today probably view things differently.
South Korean democracy developed rapidly in the 1990s, but conservative,
anti-communist ideology dominated domestic politics before then. There was very
little room for leftist, liberal thinking. But as democracy evolved, such ideas became
more and more acceptable. In the decade between 1998 and 2008, South Korea
had two successive left-leaning administrations. President Park Geun-hye is a conservative, but she won the 2012 election with only 51 percent of the vote; 48 percent voted for Moon Jae-in, a liberal. The left wing has become increasingly vocal
and influential in South Korean society.
Many of the senior members of South Korea’s liberal camp are the same activists who spearheaded the democracy movement in the late 1980s. Their view is thatPark Chung-hee went about normalizing relations with Japan the wrong way. At thetime, South Korea was a weak and underdeveloped country, but it’s grown and matured. So, they argue, isn’t it time to rebuild the bilateral relationship on a new footing, more appropriate to South Korea’s current strength and international stature?
The courts have lent their voice to the notion that the terms of the 1965 treaty
need to be reconsidered. This is implicit in the August 2011 Constitutional Court
decision faulting the South Korean government for failing to negotiate a solution
to the comfort women issue and the May 2012 Supreme Court ruling that South
Korean victims of forced labor had the right to seek compensation from Japan.
This sort of pressure from society and the judiciary has put the South Korean government in a very difficult position in terms of honoring the commitment it madeto Japan at the state level.
When Values Coincide
HOSOYA The longer we continue our discussion, the more struck I am by the difficulty of achieving reconciliation with our neighbors. The situation in South Korea
poses special challenges—perhaps now more than ever. We may be at a point where
we need to summon all our resources and ingenuity to come up with a solution.
What about the United States?
TSUNEO WATANABE I think most people would agree that Japan and the UnitedStates have enjoyed good relations overall during the past seventy years. Japan has
seen outbreaks of leftwing anti-Americanism and rightwing conservative nationalism, but despite occasional difficulties, we’ve generally managed to keep things onan even keel.
The Leaders’ Declaration issued at the Group of Seven Summit in Germany lastJune specifically mentioned the situation in the East and South China Seas under19

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the section on maritime security. In an obvious reference to China, the leadersstated that they “strongly oppose the use of intimidation, coercion, or force, as wellas any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo, such as large scale land
reclamation.” This passage was inserted by Japan and the United States. Efforts likethis help to reinforce prevailing international norms.
We saw a similar example of solidarity in support of international norms when
Russia was suspended in March 2014, and the G8 became the G7 again. The otherparticipating states agreed to suspend Russia to protest its annexation of Crimea.
The United States has a huge interest in maintaining the liberal international order,
and it supports it through ideological leadership as well as hard power. Japan also
has an interest in the continuation of this American-led world order and shares its
underlying ideals, so it has consistently cooperated with the United States over the
past seven decades. These shared interests and ideals have allowed the Japanese andAmerican people to achieve a fundamental reconciliation.
That said, there was a brief time when the relationship was in jeopardy. In
1989, when I was a student living in New York City, people in the Japanese community were warning me not to go out on December 7, Pearl Harbor Day. The
Berlin Wall had just collapsed, and the Soviet Union was breaking down. For sometime, though, US economic power had been in decline, while Japan and Germany,its former adversaries, were achieving robust growth. Japan-US relations had sunkto a low point over various trade disputes, and the backlash fueled a notion thatJapan needed to be contained. The media and academia were disseminating grossmisconceptions about Japan, suggesting that the country wasn’t a true democracy
and not playing fair. In fact, one of the main reasons I went to study in the UnitedStates was to try to get to the heart of these revisionist misunderstandings. I studied
political science largely to acquire the basic tools to counter this notion that Japanwas fundamentally different.
What I came to realize is that when relations deteriorate at the state level, allkinds of other factors, including historical relations and cultural differences, aremobilized to reinforce a negative image. Once diplomatic ties improve, such negative images are swept away. Hollywood helped spread this ruthless image of Japan
Inc. with movies like Rising Sun [1993], which was made at a time when there wasdeep concern over the expansion of Japanese business and the acquisition of American companies. In the movie, the son of a Japanese business magnate is implicatedin the murder of a professional escort.
For years, Nazi villains were a staple of Hollywood cinema. During the Cold
War, the Soviets were favored as the bad guys, and after the attacks of 9/11, it was
the Arabs. But America is a democracy, so all of this is grounded in the prevailing20

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popular image. Once the image ceases to be relevant, people lose interest in theformer villains, and the stigma disappears. That’s one of the good things about
American democracy.
On the other hand, you also have powerful lobbies and interest groups to deal
with in the United States. Korean Americans, for example, have been very active
representing South Korean interests in the United States, including its disputes withJapan. Of course, it’s their right to engage in political activity and lobby US politicians. But this anti-Japanese campaign by proxy on US soil has really complicatedrelations between Japan and South Korea. This may be one of the drawbacks ofAmerica’s undiscriminating democracy.
Even so, America’s pluses far outweigh the minuses. And we need to understandthe fundamental principles—the shared beliefs and values pertaining to democratic
government and human rights—that make American society what it is. The historical perception gap hasn’t been a major issue in Japan-US relations so far, but it
could turn into a political controversy depending on the timing and the circumstances, so we need to be on our guard.
What to Expect from the Abe Statement
HOSOYA We’ve heard from each of you regarding the development of postwar

relations with China, South Korea, and the United States, so with those observations in mind, I’d like to turn to the third and fourth questions I raised: Seventy
years after the end of World War II, what more needs to be done, and what policies
should Japan adopt to repair or strengthen relations with these three countries?
And, what are you expecting from Prime Minister Abe’s seventieth anniversary
statement?
KAWASHIMA As a member of the panel that compiled recommendations for theprime minister regarding the anniversary statement, there’s a limit to what I cansay, but I’ll offer what observations I can within those constraints.
According to the Cabinet Office’s 2014 Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy,
about 80 percent of Japanese citizens feel little or no affinity for China, the attitudein Okinawa being even cooler. The percentage of Chinese who feel no affinity forJapan is roughly the same. Clearly, public sentiment is not conducive to a warmingof bilateral relations.
The contrast with the 1980s is striking. If you look at the results of the same
survey during that period, more than 70 percent of Japanese respondents indicatedthat they felt an affinity for China, and the figures were also pretty high on the
Chinese side, where Japanese films were enjoying a big surge in popularity. The
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three major turning points in public opinion were the 1989 Tiananmen Square
protests, the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, and the anti-Japanese demonstrations of2005.
It’s worth noting, though, that 70 percent of Japanese respondents and 60 percent of Chinese regard the other country as important, according to the results ofthe 2014 Japan-China Joint Opinion Poll by Genron NPO. So while they may not
feel particularly friendly toward one another, people in the two countries acknowledge one another’s importance. There’s nothing really abnormal about such a relationship. My personal feeling is that it’s better to accept the tensions that exist andtry to build trust despite those realities than to try vainly to resurrect the positive
images of the past. It’s natural for our relationship to evolve into one in which bothsides view the other more critically even while acknowledging one another’s importance.
China is Japan’s biggest trading partner, and its importance to the Japanese
economy is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, whatever our politicaldifferences. China is rising and expanding, and China’s policies and actions—particularly in the security and political spheres—are of considerable importance tothe future of Japan and the world as a whole. That being the case, the important
thing is to never look the other way. Keeping watch without jumping to conclusions is a difficult thing to do. But we have no choice given the magnitude of China’s impact on the world today.
Another important point to keep in mind is that Japan has become a very sensitive issue in China. Lately Chinese television has been broadcasting historicaldramas and documentaries dealing with the anti-Japanese resistance, and some ofthis is wildly inaccurate. You hear nonsensical statements like, “My grandfather
was killed by Japanese soldiers when he was nine.” The CPC could be creating amajor headache for itself by spreading so much anti-Japanese propaganda in theschools and the media. At the same time, there is no denying that Chinese public
perception of Japan has deteriorated in certain respects. And the Chinese government’s policy toward Japan has become particularly temperamental over the past
six years or so, since Wen Jiabao’s bid for reconciliation failed and the Senkaku
Islands dispute flared up. On a personal level, the Chinese people seem to love
Japanese products and popular culture, but in public and official settings, they havevery harsh things to say about Japan.
Then there’s the fact that those who place top priority on economic development tend to favor closer relations with Japan, while those who don’t are more
inclined to play up the territorial issue. Internal disagreements regarding domestic
policy feed into dissent over Beijing’s Japan policy. So, when domestic problems
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arise at the political level, the government is all the more vulnerable to a public
backlash depending on its policy toward Japan. Because of this tendency, it’s becoming more and more difficult for Beijing to deal with Japan.
Under the circumstances, there’s little choice but to maintain dialogue where
dialogue is possible and to prevent differences from escalating to a boiling point.
President Xi Jinping’s policy over the past six months has been to prevent relations
with Japan from swinging too widely in either direction.
As for what to expect from Abe’s statement, I don’t really know, but I think hisemphasis is likely to be different from the Murayama and Koizumi statements [onthe fiftieth and sixtieth anniversary of the war, respectively]. In those anniversary
statements, the focus was primarily on the period before 1945. I think that Prime
Minister Abe is likely to put more emphasis on the seventy years since the war andon all the efforts toward reconciliation Japan has undertaken since then. Having
expressed remorse for the past and acknowledged the facts of history, I think he’ll
focus on doing what remains to be done.
My personal opinion is that there are a number of things that we could bedoing to improve the situation in the light of Wen Jiabao’s April 2007 speech to theDiet—with the proviso that we must continue to keep a sharp eye on China, as I
mentioned earlier. The first relates to the Peace, Friendship, and Exchange Initiative
announced by Prime Minister Murayama back in 1994, a year before his war anniversary statement. Under this initiative, Japan allocated substantial funds for
programs to support exchange at the nongovernmental level with a view to promoting reconciliation with nations that were once at war with Japan. I believe these
efforts should be continued into the future. Even those countries that say they arewilling to “forgive but won’t forget” deserve our reassurance that we won’t forget
either. And those countries that haven’t forgiven need it all the more.
Second, when it comes to discussing history, I think we need to talk about Japan’s postwar efforts toward reconciliation, not just prewar and wartime events.
As an example, the Japan Center for Asian Historical Records has a very usefulwebsite that provides free digital access to historical materials housed in the National Archives of Japan, the Diplomatic Archives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the National Institute for Defense Studies of the Ministry of Defense. But
for some reason, it only provides access to prewar and wartime records. If it wereto include information on Japan’s postwar efforts toward reconciliation and its
contributions to the international community, that could promote understandingof the progress we’ve made over the past seventy years.
A third thing we need to work on is improving the teaching of history in our
schools.
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Finally, I just want to mention that, when it comes to East Asia, one serious
concern I have is Taiwan. The Japanese have a tendency to regard Taiwan as afriendly, pro-Japanese country, but the reality is much more complex. There are anumber of changes underway in Taiwan today that could have important ramifications for Japan-China relations, Japan-US relations, and the role of Okinawa. I
think the time is approaching when we’ll need to think seriously about ways toachieve reconciliation with Taiwanese society, not just with the government in Taipei.
Twice as Humble, Twice as Tolerant
NISHINO The first thing I would mention in regard to Japan-ROK relations is thegrowing mutual animosity among ordinary citizens. Two of three Japanese surveyed in the Cabinet Office’s latest Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy said theyfelt little or no affinity toward South Korea. This is a very serious state of affairs.
As recently as 2009, two out of three Japanese indicated that they felt close to thecountry. South Korean sentiment toward Japan is also very negative, but that’s beentrue for some time; the level of animosity hasn’t changed much on their side.
The recent deterioration in Japanese attitudes toward South Korea can betraced back to President Lee Myung-bak’s August 2012 landing on Takeshima andhis demand that the Emperor apologize for Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean
Peninsula. Both countries’ leaders need to recognize the gravity of the situation andmake a concerted effort to avoid any further deterioration in bilateral ties.
On a positive note, both leaders attended receptions held on June 22 in Tokyoand Seoul to mark the fiftieth anniversary of the normalization of bilateral ties. I
take this as a positive sign, an indication that they wanted to seize the opportunity
to begin repairing relations. Hopefully, this will translate into further progress inthe upcoming months, including the resumption of the Japan-China-ROK trilateralsummit.
The second point I want to make concerns the “two-track approach” toward
Japanese diplomacy proposed by the administration of President Park Geun-hye. I
think it makes good sense to treat historical reconciliation as a separate issue toprevent it from casting a shadow over other facets of the relationship. At the sametime, we have to be careful not to sweep these issues under the rug again. South
Korean society and Japanese society have both undergone profound changes since1965. Both sides need to keep working diligently and patiently to develop constructive approaches to the problem predicated on today’s realities.
This brings me to another point I wanted to mention. Japan and South Korea
have actually made considerable progress in terms of cooperation and dialogue in24

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areas other than historical reconciliation, such as the economy, culture, people-to-people exchange, and most recently security. Unfortunately, these activities
don’t get a lot of attention. Japan-Korea relations are multifaceted and multidimensional, and the historical aspect is just one component, albeit an important one. We
need to start focusing more on these other areas if we want to improve the bilateralrelationship.
As regards the Abe statement, I have two basic expectations. One is that theprime minister will deliver a message that resonates with the international community as a whole. Of course, we would like South Korea and China to respond positively. But judging from the content of speeches Abe made earlier this year and theconclusions of his advisory panel, it seems unrealistic to imagine that the Auguststatement will elicit praise from Seoul. Still, if he can send a strong and effective
message to the international community, acknowledging Japan’s past and conveying how it intends to contribute to the international community going forward, hewill have passed an important test.
Concerning Japan-ROK relations specifically, I think that the prime ministerneeds to get the South Korean people to understand that Japan and South Korea
have both worked hard to shape the bilateral relationship over the years. The June2015 report on the government’s review of the 1993 Kono statement revealed how
closely Tokyo and Seoul have been working since the 1990s to find a resolution to
the comfort women issue. The report drew a sharp reaction from Seoul, and President Park keeps insisting that the first step is for Japan to confront the facts honestly, but I think we also need to discuss what South Korea’s next steps should beafter Japan does confront the facts and how the two governments can bring closure
to these issues, particularly the comfort women problem.
WATANABE I think you made an important point about the South Korean government’s part in shaping the bilateral relationship. In Tokyo last March, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the understanding and magnanimity of Germany’s former adversaries in extending the hand of reconciliation to Germany afterWorld War II. Her words had deep implications.
Where Japan and the United States are concerned, there are very few unresolved issues requiring reconciliation. But if Japan is incapable of achieving reconciliation with its neighbors, that may undermine its value as a US ally. In that sense,
we need to do our utmost to reconcile with our Asian neighbors if we want tomaintain and improve our ties with the United States.
Another key to that relationship is shared values and a common interest inpreserving the international order and international norms. Japan needs to clearly
articulate what it wants to accomplish as a member of the international community
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and what sort of international order it wants to build, and then implement concrete
policies toward achieving those goals. That’s why I applaud Prime Minister Abe’s
attempts to make “proactive contributions to peace.” I agree with the prime minister that Japan needs to relax the legal constraints that have limited our ability tocontribute proactively to regional stability as a necessary step toward becoming amature nation. Unfortunately, he was not very successful in persuading the publicof this need. The Abe statement will need to be consistent with his announced policies.
The prime minister needs to avoid backward-looking justifications or denialsof the past. But he also needs to avoid an inward-looking, isolationist approach.
The domestic opposition to Abe’s new security legislation is based on an isolationist fear of what might come from making a proactive contribution to world affairs.
I’m hoping the Abe statement will clearly convey the value of Japan’s contribution
to international society to date and also its commitment to make an even greater
contribution going forward.
HOSOYA If I may be forgiven a rather down-to-earth analogy, I’ve seen a certain
amount of interpersonal friction develop among myseminar students at times, and I’ve realized that everyone has a tendency to magnify their own efforts andunderrate the efforts of others. So I often tell them,“Take half the credit for your own contribution, andgive others twice the credit for theirs, and you’ll probably have a more accurate assessment.” In otherwords, to get an objective picture of ourselves andothers, we need to be twice as humble and twice as
tolerant. It’s easy to criticize South Korea, China, or
the United States, but I think that if we start by humbly examining our own conduct, we’ll find plenty ofhints for improving relations.
Thank you all for a very worthwhile discussion.
(Abridged and adapted from the transcript of the 95th Tokyo Foundation Forum,
July 6, 2015.)
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70th Anniversary of World War II
REFERENCE
Statement by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
Friday, August 14, 2015
Cabinet Decision
On the 70th anniversary of the end of the war, we must calmly reflect upon theroad to war, the path we have taken since it ended, and the era of the 20th century.
We must learn from the lessons of history the wisdom for our future.
More than one hundred years ago, vast colonies possessed mainly by the Western powers stretched out across the world. With their overwhelming supremacy intechnology, waves of colonial rule surged toward Asia in the 19th century. There is
no doubt that the resultant sense of crisis drove Japan forward to achieve modernization. Japan built a constitutional government earlier than any other nation in
Asia. The country preserved its independence throughout. The Japan-Russia War
gave encouragement to many people under colonial rule from Asia to Africa.
After World War I, which embroiled the world, the movement for self-determination gained momentum and put brakes on colonization that had been underway.
It was a horrible war that claimed as many as ten million lives. With a strong desire
for peace stirred in them, people founded the League of Nations and brought forth
the General Treaty for Renunciation of War. There emerged in the international
community a new tide of outlawing war itself.
At the beginning, Japan, too, kept steps with other nations. However, with theGreat Depression setting in and the Western countries launching economic blocs
by involving colonial economies, Japan’s economy suffered a major blow. In suchcircumstances, Japan’s sense of isolation deepened and it attempted to overcome
its diplomatic and economic deadlock through the use of force. Its domestic political system could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts. In this way, Japan lostsight of the overall trends in the world.
With the Manchurian Incident, followed by the withdrawal from the Leagueof Nations, Japan gradually transformed itself into a challenger to the new international order that the international community sought to establish after tremendous sacrifices. Japan took the wrong course and advanced along the road to war.
And, seventy years ago, Japan was defeated.
On the 70th anniversary of the end of the war, I bow my head deeply before
the souls of all those who perished both at home and abroad. I express my feelingsof profound grief and my eternal, sincere condolences.
More than three million of our compatriots lost their lives during the war: on
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the battlefields worrying about the future of their homeland and wishing for thehappiness of their families; in remote foreign countries after the war, in extreme
cold or heat, suffering from starvation and disease. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the air raids on Tokyo and other cities, and the ground battles
in Okinawa, among others, took a heavy toll among ordinary citizens without
mercy.
Also in countries that fought against Japan, countless lives were lost among
young people with promising futures. In China, Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands
and elsewhere that became the battlefields, numerous innocent citizens suffered andfell victim to battles as well as hardships such as severe deprivation of food. We
must never forget that there were women behind the battlefields whose honour anddignity were severely injured.
Upon the innocent people did our country inflict immeasurable damage andsuffering. History is harsh. What is done cannot be undone. Each and every one ofthem had his or her life, dream, and beloved family. When I squarely contemplate
this obvious fact, even now, I find myself speechless and my heart is rent with theutmost grief.
The peace we enjoy today exists only upon such precious sacrifices. And thereinlies the origin of postwar Japan.
We must never again repeat the devastation of war.
Incident, aggression, war -- we shall never again resort to any form of the threator use of force as a means of settling international disputes. We shall abandon colonial rule forever and respect the right of self-determination of all peoples throughout the world.
With deep repentance for the war, Japan made that pledge. Upon it, we havecreated a free and democratic country, abided by the rule of law, and consistently
upheld that pledge never to wage a war again. While taking silent pride in the path
we have walked as a peace-loving nation for as long as seventy years, we remain
determined never to deviate from this steadfast course.
Japan has repeatedly expressed the feelings of deep remorse and heartfelt apology for its actions during the war. In order to manifest such feelings through concrete actions, we have engraved in our hearts the histories of suffering of the people
in Asia as our neighbours: those in Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia andthe Philippines, and Taiwan, the Republic of Korea and China, among others; andwe have consistently devoted ourselves to the peace and prosperity of the region
since the end of the war.
Such position articulated by the previous cabinets will remain unshakable into
the future.
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However, no matter what kind of efforts we may make, the sorrows of those
who lost their family members and the painful memories of those who underwent
immense sufferings by the destruction of war will never be healed.
Thus, we must take to heart the following.
The fact that more than six million Japanese repatriates managed to comehome safely after the war from various parts of the Asia-Pacific and became thedriving force behind Japan’s postwar reconstruction; the fact that nearly three
thousand Japanese children left behind in China were able to grow up there andset foot on the soil of their homeland again; and the fact that former POWs of theUnited States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia and other nations
have visited Japan for many years to continue praying for the souls of the war deadon both sides.
How much emotional struggle must have existed and what great efforts musthave been necessary for the Chinese people who underwent all the sufferings of the
war and for the former POWs who experienced unbearable sufferings caused by
the Japanese military in order for them to be so tolerant nevertheless?
That is what we must turn our thoughts to reflect upon.
Thanks to such manifestation of tolerance, Japan was able to return to theinternational community in the postwar era. Taking this opportunity of the 70th
anniversary of the end of the war, Japan would like to express its heartfelt gratitude
to all the nations and all the people who made every effort for reconciliation.
In Japan, the postwar generations now exceed eighty per cent of its population.
We must not let our children, grandchildren, and even further generations to come,
who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize. Still, even so,
we Japanese, across generations, must squarely face the history of the past. We havethe responsibility to inherit the past, in all humbleness, and pass it on to the future.
Our parents’ and grandparents’ generations were able to survive in a devastated land in sheer poverty after the war. The future they brought about is the one
our current generation inherited and the one we will hand down to the next generation. Together with the tireless efforts of our predecessors, this has only beenpossible through the goodwill and assistance extended to us that transcended hatred by a truly large number of countries, such as the United States, Australia, andEuropean nations, which Japan had fiercely fought against as enemies.
We must pass this down from generation to generation into the future. We havethe great responsibility to take the lessons of history deeply into our hearts, to carveout a better future, and to make all possible efforts for the peace and prosperity ofAsia and the world.
We will engrave in our hearts the past, when Japan attempted to break its
29

70th Anniversary of World War II
deadlock with force. Upon this reflection, Japan will continue to firmly uphold theprinciple that any disputes must be settled peacefully and diplomatically based on
the respect for the rule of law and not through the use of force, and to reach out
to other countries in the world to do the same. As the only country to have ever
suffered the devastation of atomic bombings during war, Japan will fulfil its responsibility in the international community, aiming at the non-proliferation andultimate abolition of nuclear weapons.
We will engrave in our hearts the past, when the dignity and honour of many
women were severely injured during wars in the 20th century. Upon this reflection,
Japan wishes to be a country always at the side of such women’s injured hearts.
Japan will lead the world in making the 21st century an era in which women’shuman rights are not infringed upon.
We will engrave in our hearts the past, when forming economic blocs made theseeds of conflict thrive. Upon this reflection, Japan will continue to develop a free,fair and open international economic system that will not be influenced by thearbitrary intentions of any nation. We will strengthen assistance for developing
countries, and lead the world toward further prosperity. Prosperity is the very
foundation for peace. Japan will make even greater efforts to fight against poverty,
which also serves as a hotbed of violence, and to provide opportunities for medical
services, education, and self-reliance to all the people in the world.
We will engrave in our hearts the past, when Japan ended up becoming a challenger to the international order. Upon this reflection, Japan will firmly upholdbasic values such as freedom, democracy, and human rights as unyielding values
and, by working hand in hand with countries that share such values, hoist the flagof “Proactive Contribution to Peace,” and contribute to the peace and prosperityof the world more than ever before.
Heading toward the 80th, the 90th and the centennial anniversary of the endof the war, we are determined to create such a Japan together with the Japanesepeople.
August 14, 2015
Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Reprinted from the website of the Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet, http://
japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/statement/201508/0814statement.html.

30

70th Anniversary of World War II
August 26, 2015

Okinawa’s Inconvenient Truths
Yoshitoshi TairaThe controversy over US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa is widely regarded as a local issue, but the author cites historical evidence to suggest that the situation
has important and disturbing implications for postwar Japan as a whole.
*

*

*

I

n this report I examine the meaning of the situation in Okinawa today forJapanese politics and security. Specifically, I probe the implications of the current situation in Okinawa, where 70 years after Japan’s defeat in World War
II, the US military maintains an undiminished presence on the sprawling bases it
built in the years between the Battle of Okinawa in 1945 and the islands’ reversion
to Japanese control in 1972.
Removing the Residue of the Occupation
At the time of the 1952 San Francisco Peace Treaty, which brought an end to the
Allied Occupation and restored sovereignty to postwar Japan, US military installations (exclusive use facilities) covered 135,200 hectares of mainland Japan—
more than eight times the area of bases in Okinawa. During the 1950s, a series ofincidents and accidents involving American forces stationed in Japan plagued communities around the country, spawning protests and fueling a surge in anti-American feeling as the US military sought to build new installations and expand existing ones. US Ambassador to Japan John Allison recommended a timely and orderly
withdrawal, particularly of US ground forces, noting that the Japanese public regarded their presence as a symbol of the Occupation.
In 1957, newly elected Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi called on the United
Yoshitoshi Taira   Member of the Political and Diplomatic Review Project, Tokyo Foundation; Research Associate, Regional Comprehensive Research Institute, Dokkyo University; Lecturer, Hosei University.
31

70th Anniversary of World War II
States to withdraw its ground forces from Japan. The two governments reached anagreement to that effect at a bilateral summit in June that year, and the UnitedStates began drawing down, redeploying troops and closing down army installations. Over the next two to three years, the area of mainland Japan occupied by US
military installations shrank to 33,000 ha. However, in Okinawa, which remained
under US military control until 1972,
vast tracts of land were expropriatedfor the use of the Marines redeployedfrom mainland Japan. US bases in
Okinawa eventually occupied 33,500
ha, well over 21% of the prefecture’s
total land area.
In the rest of Japan, meanwhile,
the US Army forces dwindled, but the
Air Force and Navy retained a conYoshitoshi Tairai speaking at a Tokyo Foundation symspicuous presence, including several
posium on the situation in Okinawa today, 70 years
sprawling bases in and around Tokyo.
after the end of World War II.
With economic growth soaring andthe nation’s once-battered pride slowly returning, the presence of US military forcesin the greater capital area was an unpleasant reminder of Japan’s humiliating defeat
and occupation. In 1970, Prime Minister Eisaku Sato acknowledged before theDiet that it was “not a desirable situation to have so many foreign troops rightnearby the nation’s capital.”
Under such initiatives as the Kanto Plain Consolidation plan, the cutbacks
continued apace. By 1972, US military bases occupied just 19,700 hectares of theJapanese mainland, and by 1980 the figure was down to 8,500 hectares. (It currently stands at 8,000 hectares.)
What compelled conservative, anti-communist leaders like Kishi and Sato topush so hard for the withdrawal of US military bases? In the words of Kishi, whofought successfully for the conclusion of a revised Japan-US Security Treaty, it was
all about clearing away the “residue” of the Occupation.
To one degree or another, this impulse to eradicate the traces of subjugationand place Japan on a fundamentally equal footing with the United States motivatedthe behavior and policies of all of Japan’s political leaders during that era. It drove
the negotiations leading to the revision of the Japan-US Security Treaty in 1960,
the reversion of Okinawa in 1972, and the withdrawal of US forces from mainland
Japan from the 1950s through the 1970s. These were the top priorities for Japan’s
postwar leaders as they sought to restore Japan’s sovereignty and establish equality
32

70th Anniversary of World War IIwith the United States in the wake of the Occupation. Having thus swept away the
detritus of a humiliating chapter in the history of Japan-US relations, Japan proceeded to build an ever deeper and more extensive bilateral security relationshipunder the name of the “Japan-US alliance.”
Reality Check
But now let us stop and consider: Did Japan really eliminate the last traces of the
US Occupation? Okinawa eventually reverted to Japanese control, but the bases
built during the years under American military control still occupy 22,800 hectaresof Okinawa Island, almost 18% of the total land area. Under the circumstances,
one must ask whether the residue of the Occupation was eliminated or simply
pushed out of sight.
Kumao Nishimura, who helped negotiate the original bilateral security as headof the Foreign Ministry’s Treaties Bureau, called the essence of the treaty “cooperation between material and human resources.” This was his way of saying thatJapan had committed itself to providing bases (material resources) in return for theAmerican promise of military protection. In substantive terms, the most importantand tangible result of the treaty was the US military bases on Japanese soil. Yet byconcentrating those bases in Okinawa, the government was able to render theminvisible to most of the Japanese populace, even while the Japan-US alliance continued to develop and grow.
Having set the stage in this manner, we are now ready to ask the uncomfortablequestions Okinawa raises about the character and achievements of postwar Japan.
Broadly speaking, these boil down to two basic issues.
The first is, how should we assess the outcome of Japan’s efforts to sweep away
the “residue” that embodied its status as a defeated nation? To put it more bluntly,
how do the Japanese as a people reconcile themselves to the fact that Okinawa
today preserves the very image of Japan as a defeated nation? Can they continue
to tolerate the situation in Okinawa even though it vividly preserves the same emblems of defeat that they so zealously swept from the main islands? These questions
go to the very core of Japan’s character as a sovereign state since the conclusion of
the San Francisco Peace Treaty.
The second question is, how does Japan, as a democratic state, explain the factthat Okinawa, which accounts for a mere 0.6% of Japan’s total land area, houses
73.8% of the US military installations (exclusive use facilities) in Japan—in otherwords, that the burden of the bilateral alliance (the provision of bases) falls overwhelmingly on the people of this one tiny prefecture? Since sovereignty lies with33

70th Anniversary of World War II
the people in a democracy, the people must have the collective will to defend theirown country and share the burden of defense equally. In this sense, the second
question also goes to the very core of Japan’s development as a democratic stateover the past 70 years of postwar history.
What all of this means is that the implications of the current base controversy
go far beyond the immediate question of whether to build a replacement facility
for Marine Corps Air Station Futenma elsewhere in Okinawa. It also means thatthe issue has relevance not merely for Okinawans but for Japan as a whole. The
Henoko relocation plan raises in distilled form the uncomfortable question of thenature of postwar Japan as reflected in the image of Okinawa today.
(Abridged and adapted from a paper delivered to a Tokyo Foundation symposium,
May 26, 2015)34

70th Anniversary of World War II
October 5, 2015

Abe’s 70th Anniversary Statement: Historical
Realism, not Revisionism
Taisuke AbiruOn August 24, 2015, Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan and Presidentof the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, issued a statement to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. This was thethird statement of this kind issued by prime ministers of Japan, including thosefrom Tomiichi Murayama and Junichiro Koizumi.
The 1995 Murayama statement, officially entitled “On the Occasion of the50th Anniversary of the War’s End,” was the first statement to include three key
terms: “aggression,” “colonial rule” and “deep remorse and heartfelt apology.” In2005, PM Koizumi issued a 60th anniversary statement, which adhered to thebasic line of the Murayama’s statement.
When the Abe administration officially announced its plan at the beginning of
this year to issue the 70th anniversary statement, there were opinions in the Japanese media that one more statement by a PM would be unnecessary after the Mura­yama statement and the Koizumi statement, which explicitly acknowledged andapologized for Japan’s colonial rule and aggression. Then why did PM Abe decide
to issue the new statement?
With the rise of China, in the last ten years we have witnessed radical
changes in the security environment surrounding Japan. The escalation of territorial disputes between China and its neighbors in the East China Sea and South
China Sea directly reflects these changes. There have been growing voices within
Japanese society calling for a firm stance on the part of the government toward
China on the Senkaku Islands dispute. Some people even expected the government
to deny the Murayama statement on the grounds that, in their view, it was too
masochistic. It is no secret that this history revisionist group constitutes a part ofShinzo Abe’s political support base which enabled him to return to the prime minister’s post again at the end of 2012. Therefore there were concerns at that time

Taisuke Abiru   Research Fellow and Project Manager, Tokyo Foundation.
35

70th Anniversary of World War IIthat Abe’s new statement would take a different view of historical revisionism.
His political support base, however, also includes a group of realist scholars
who don’t hesitate to acknowledge Japan’s colonial rule and aggression before theend of World War II. In their view, China is committing the same mistake Japan didin that period by challenging the existing international order. Dr. Shinichi Kitaoka,president of International University, represents this group of realist scholars. He
also actively supports the Abe administration’s new security initiatives under Japan’s “Proactive Contribution to Peace” program.
In this context it’s worth paying attention to the fact that Abe has establishedthe Advisory Panel on the History of the 20th Century and on Japan’s Role and theWorld Order in the 21st Century, and appointed Dr. Kitaoka as Acting Chair of
this advisory panel. Members of the Panel held seven meetings and published areport on August 6, 2015.
Reading both Abe’s new statement and the Advisory Panel’s report, it is obvious that the historic view of the group of realist scholars had a critical impact on
the content of Abe’s new statement.
It turned out to be less hawkish than initially expected. It uses the same three
key terms—aggression, colonial rule and deep remorse and heartfelt apology—
from the Murayama statement.
Abe’s new statement also shares the logic of the Advisory Panel’s report in thatit implies criticism of China’s behavior today in East China Sea and South China
Sea by admitting that Japan ended up becoming a challenger to the international
order in the past.
I understand that, when reading the following part, some people may raise thequestion of whether Japan learned from history:
In Japan, the postwar generations now exceed eighty per cent of its population.
We must not let our children, grandchildren, and even further generations tocome, who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize.
However, the sentences that follow this one should be noted:
Still, even so, we Japanese, across generations, must squarely face the historyof the past. We have the responsibility to inherit the past, in all humbleness, andpass it on to the future.
And so, it’s fair to say that Abe’s 70th anniversary statement on the end ofWorld War II shows Japan’s historical realism, not revisionism.
36

70th Anniversary of World War II
This article was originally published on the website of the Valdai Discussion Club.
It is reprinted here with the permission of the Club.

37

70th Anniversary of World War II
October 7, 2015

Compromise Possible on the Northern
Territories
Masahiro AkiyamaI

have been asked by the Valdai Discussion Club to comment on the topic of the“Kuril Islands” and Japanese-Russian relations prior to Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida’s planned visit to Russia. The club wanted to know what
would have a positive influence on bilateral relations, “given the fact that the parties are not willing to compromise on the Northern Territories.”
Before answering this question, let me first go over the historical facts regarding
the territorial dispute, since I do not agree with the premise that “the parties are
not willing to compromise.”First of all, the Northern Territories—the islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and Habomai—are not part of the Kuril Islands, which are located to the northof these islands, but are the inherent territories of Japan. They have never belonged
to any other country. Russia and Japan have signed several treaties relating to thisarea in the past (in 1855, 1875 and 1905), in all of which Russia admitted that thefour islands are Japanese territory. They were taken and occupied by the former
Soviet Union at the very final stages of World War II, or, to be more exact, two
weeks after Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration.
As far as territorial issues are concerned, my understanding of the Ukrainiansituation is that Russia has special interests in the eastern part of that country,
particularly, the Crimean Peninsula, owing to the region’s historical ties to Russia.
But the Russian occupation of the Northern Territories has no legal grounds. Russia has continued to occupy them over the years while officially admitting in joint
declarations that a territorial problem exists between our two countries.
The Japanese people feel that the occupation is illegal and unfair, but inasmuch
as the four islands have been under Russian/Soviet control for more than half acentury, we have gradually come to accept that there is no choice but to find acompromise. Without resolving the territorial dispute between our two countries,

Masahiro Akiyama   President and Senior Fellow, Tokyo Foundation.
38

70th Anniversary of World War II
we cannot sign a peace treaty, which is the most important step for both countries
in further developing a bilateral partnership, as both governments wish. President
Vladimir Putin has referred to achieving a hikiwake, a judo term that means a“draw,” and this has raised expectations among the Japanese public that a compromise is possible.
I do not think it is accurate to say that the Japanese government is “not willingto compromise” on the issue. And I believe the same goes for the Russian government, although the diplomatic authorities of both countries are taking a toughstance before the start of negotiations.
The present political situation in the two countries, moreover, is not favorable
for advancing territorial negotiations. From this viewpoint, I do not understand theintentions of the Russian prime minister in visiting Etorofu last month. This is notconducive to creating goodwill, and I strongly protest his actions. This will only
lead to angering the Japanese people. To change the atmosphere, we need somepositive developments in economic cooperation, particularly in energy explorationor new ideas regarding the shipment of fuels. We need high-level dialogue between
political leaders, as well as continued discussion and exchange in the private sector.
While I do not expect a breakthrough from the upcoming visit by Foreign
Minister Kishida to Moscow, I do hope that both sides will make the effort to takea step forward in the territorial negotiations.

This article was originally published on the website of the Valdai Discussion Club.
It is reprinted here with the permission of the Club.

39

Security Legislation
December 2, 2015

The New Security Legislation and Japanese
Public Reaction
Satoru Mori

The Abe cabinet succeeded in passing legislation to expand the scope of Japan’s security options in September, but the strength of public opposition was surprising. Satoru Mori urges
the government to address the “unilateral pacifist” mindset of the Japanese people and to
make a greater effort to convince them of the need to actively defend the embattled international order to ensure continued peace and prosperity.
*

*

*

O

n September 18, the Diet approved a package of controversial security
laws that will come into force in March 2016. The new legislation will
help deter aggressive behavior in the region by facilitating more effective
cooperation between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the military forces of othercountries, particularly Japan’s sole alliance partner, the United States, and also open
the way for Japan to provide support for UN-sanctioned operations in response tothreats to international peace. In these and other ways, it provides the essential
legal framework Japan needs in order to defend the international order—and
thereby our own peace and prosperity—in the midst of a changing and challenging
international environment. The most significant implication of the new legal framework is that it would allow the Japanese government to (1) plan extensively forvarious types of contingencies and (2) train and equip the SDF accordingly. Planning and training form a significant part of deterrence, and thus the new security
legislation opens the way for Japan to proactively contribute to peace and stability
in the Asia-Pacific and beyond.
However, the dominant impression among Japanese voters seems to be that thelegislation is confusing. There is no denying that the language of some of the pro-

Satoru Mori   Security Legislation Project Member, Tokyo Foundation; Professor, Faculty of Law, Hosei University.
40Security Legislation
visions makes them difficult to parse at a glance. The large number of bills submitted to the Diet all at once—10 bills amending provisions of existing laws alongwith a permanent International Peace Support Bill—added to this impression ofcomplexity, as did the opposition parties’ deliberate focus on a few highly technicalprovisions during Diet deliberations.
Nevertheless, if we examine the legislation systematically in terms of the kindsof actions permitted in different situations, we find that the content of the laws isneither mystifying nor threatening. One framework that could be used to systematically comprehend the nature and scope of SDF actions would look like this:• Use of Force(1) Under armed attack(2) Threat to survival• Support Activities(3) Important influence on peace and security(4) Collective international response• Peacetime Activities(5) Asset protection(6) International peace cooperation
The four situations—(1) through (4)—are legally defined so as to delineate
what the SDF can and cannot do. The following is a brief summary description of
the different activities in which the SDF can engage.
Demystifying the New Legislation
Situations in Which the Use of Force Is Permitted
First, the use of force by the SDF under a defense operations order is restricted to
two types of contingencies. The first, a situation in which Japan is “under armed
attack,” is consistent with previous policy, meaning that Japan is able to exercise
individual self-defense and that the Japan-US Security Treaty would be invoked.
The second is a situation that poses a “threat to survival” in which an armed attackhas been launched against another country that is in a close relationship with Japanand poses a clear danger of fundamentally overturning the [Japanese] people’s rightto life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Under these conditions and these41Security Legislation
conditions alone will Japan now be able to exercise its right to engage in limited
collective self-defense—that is, the use of force in defense of a close friend or ally.
The strategic rationale for permitting participation in collective self-defense insituations that pose a threat to Japan’s existence is to enhance the deterrent capability of the Japan-US alliance by allowing the SDF to coordinate effectively with
the US military in the event of a major security crisis on the Korean Peninsula orelsewhere in the region.
While allowing limited participation in collective self-defense, the new lawspreserve an exclusively defensive posture by stipulating that an actual armed attack(either on Japan or on a close friend or ally) must occur before Japan is permitted
to respond with the use of military force. Moreover, prior Diet approval is required
in principle before Japan can participate in limited collective self-defense. Although
SDF forces could be mobilized without prior Diet approval in emergency situations, subsequent Diet approval would still be necessary. In this way the law maintains the principle of democratic control over the military.
Situations in Which Support Activities Are Allowed
The laws also provide for the dispatch of SDF units overseas in situations where
there are emerging threats to peace that may have an “important influence on Japan’s peace and security” and in taking a “collective international response”—
based on a UN resolution—to threats to international peace. However, in thesesituations, the role of the SDF will be limited to various support activities, searchand rescue operations, ship inspection operations, and other noncombat activities
in which the use of weapons will be permitted in principle only for purposes ofself-preservation.
In terms of the deployment of the SDF for support purposes in these two situations, the legislation envisions the SDF cooperating in the areas of supplies, transportation, repair and maintenance, medical treatment, communications, airportand seaport activities, base support, billeting, storage, and training services (construction services are also envisioned for “collective international response”). The
deployment of SDF units overseas under these situations means that Japan will beable to cooperate with other countries to defend the international order and restore
peace in the event that the peace of the international community is under threat or
attack by a specific power.
Although the SDF will be permitted to provide the kinds of logistic and cooperative support outlined above under “important influence” and “collective international response” situations, it will not be able to engage in such activities inside42

of combat zones. If fighting breaks out or is thought likely to break out in the vicinity of such SDF operations, the unit commander is to temporarily suspend activities. Depending on the circumstances, the minister of defense may order theoperation terminated.
The new legislation permits theuse of weapons by SDF troops involved in overseas support activities,
but only when necessary to protect
themselves, other SDF personnel, orother people under their supervision,and they may not go beyond what isreasonably required to respond to thesituation. In other words, they may
use their weapons to expel hostileforces from the area or to protect Iraqi children shake hands with SDF soldiers during areconstruction operation in postwar Iraq.
themselves and others in the area. This
will allow the SDF to evacuate while
defending themselves and others in the vicinity in the event that the site of activity
turns into a combat zone. Thus, while the new legislation expands the range ofactions permitted to the SDF, it also establishes rules and mechanisms needed to
manage the risks to which SDF troops and others may be exposed as a result.
These provisions address the risks inherent in such activities by enhancing theimmediate response and deterrence capability of forces on the ground. Diet authorization is required without exception, moreover, prior to the deployment of SDF
forces in “collective international response” situations.
Peacetime Activities
Under the new legislation the SDF may use weapons—again, only to the extent
necessary—to protect the weapons and other equipment of foreign nations in theevent of a compelling request by a military or comparable unit of the United States
or other country that has established a cooperative security relationship with Japanand the SDF. This type of asset protection mission will likely prove valuable upon
conducting multinational military exercises and combined ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) operations in the future. It should also be noted that
asset protection missions are also possible during the situations mentioned above.
In addition, the legislation also allows the SDF to use weapons for the execution of missions in the context of UN peacekeeping operations. The SDF will be
43© Rikujojieitai Boueisho

Security Legislation

Security Legislation
able to protect local populations who reside in areas where UN peacekeeping operations are carried out, and it will be capable of protecting individuals who areassociated with the ongoing operations and other advisory activities. The SDF will
also be able to rescue Japanese nationals overseas, premised on the consent of thestate in which the rescue operation is to take place and the meeting of certain otherconditions.
As the foregoing indicates, a close look at the substance of the new law refutes
critics’ charges that it is “war legislation” and that it exposes SDF personnel tounacceptable risks. The process of seeking authorization from the Diet ensures thatpeople’s representatives have final political say over the extent and shape of any
SDF involvement in overseas conflicts. The new security legislation is designed togive Japan the latitude to formulate more effective responses to threats to international peace and security that may occur, in concert with the United States andother partners that share our interest in maintaining peace and the international
order, while managing the risks involved.
Ostensible Causes of Public Resistance
Unfortunately, the legislation’s advocates were not entirely successful in educating
the public as to its purpose and importance. In opinion polls by Japan’s major
national newspapers, both before and after the bills’ passage, between 50% and
60% of respondents registered their disapproval, and between 70% and 80% feltthat the government’s explanations were insufficient. Government officials, though,responded at length to numerous questions from both the ruling and opposition
parties in the course of more than 200 hours of deliberations in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. These deliberations were reported indetail by the media. Why, then, was the public left feeling confused and insufficiently informed about the bill?
One factor was the opposition parties’ rather parochial parliamentary tactics,
to which the government fell victim. They zeroed in relentlessly on abstruse technicalities without proposing viable alternatives and avoided any discussion of thelarger strategic issues at stake.
Another factor was the nature of the media coverage. When a government official stumbled in the course of such questioning, the media would seize gleefullyon the gaffe, playing the video over and over until the public lost faith in the rulingparty and the government and became convinced that the legislation was too arcane and confusing for even the minister of defense to explain.
A third factor—timing—may have compounded the bills’ image problems. The
44

Security Legislation
bulk of the deliberations took place in August, when television stations were marking the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II with programs and movies recalling the war and its devastation. Amid this general atmosphere of remorseover the past and determination never again to wage war, the opposition was able
to play on the public’s fears and suspicions by labeling the bills “war legislation.”
The Postwar Japanese Psyche
Still, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that something deeper and more fundamental prevented the bills from winning the understanding and active support fromeven a bare majority of the people. It may be that the bills’ advocates failed torecognize and clearly address the basic premises underlying the pacifism that theJapanese people have embraced since World War II. For this reason, they failed todispel fears and suspicions rooted in this uniquely Japanese view of peace—doubtsthat stood in the way of an objective understanding and acceptance of the newlegislation and its purpose.
The first of these doubts and fears is the straightforward concern that broadening the legal scope of the SDF’s activities heightens the danger of Japan’s waging
another war, with all its attendant horrors. Put simply, this is a basic suspicion of
military power and its use derived from history. Japan once plunged into a war of
aggression, as a result of which countless people suffered and died. The determination never to wage war again is a widespread sentiment among the Japanese people, who renew that commitment each August, when bitter memories of the war
are summoned once again. This memory has led the Japanese to psychologicallyequate the flexible use of military power with war. This makes it more difficult for
the Japanese public to appreciate the strategic logic that military effectiveness could
help deter war.
The second concern is the fear of becoming embroiled or entangled in others’
conflicts. Japan is a formal ally of the United States, whose military presence extends throughout the world. A segment of the Japanese public fears that, if cooperative ties between the SDF and the US military are strengthened, Japan would
come under pressure to make a military contribution to any conflict in which theUnited States became involved elsewhere—including instances of military intervention—even if Japan’s own security and interests were not at stake. They see Article
9 of the Constitution as a bulwark that has allowed them to resist such pressure
from the United States; once the government loosens the constraints of Article 9,
they fear, Japan will have no means of resisting US demands to intervene in conflicts around the world.
45

Security Legislation
The third fear is that, by loosening the constraints of Article 9 and permitting
even limited collective self-defense, Japan will exacerbate tensions in the region andheighten the risk of war—whereas (they believe) peace would certainly prevail if
Japan simply maintained the status quo. Underlying this fear, it would seem, is atacit assumption that Japan’s actions alone determine whether peace prevails in theregion. In other words, there are those who believe that the Constitution and theexisting interpretation of Article 9 are the sole determinants of peace in the region,
not paying any heed to the role played by the SDF and the alliance.
When the Japanese government embraced a constitutional interpretation prohibiting the use of force except in the event of a direct attack on Japan by a foreignstate, it did so predicated on the understanding that its ally the United States would
use its unparalleled military might to defend Japan from aggression. On the one
hand, this interpretation of Article 9 helped foster among the Japanese a fairly
widespread acceptance of the necessity of the Japan-US alliance, as attested by the
results of numerous public opinion polls. But a certain segment of the Japanesepublic appears to have lost sight of the key role US forward deployment and extended deterrence have played in preserving peace by deterring the use of militaryforce against Japan. Ironically, the people came to believe that Japan itself had
single-handedly preserved peace through its adherence to an interpretation of Article 9 that strictly prohibited Japan’s participation in collective self-defense. The
natural corollary of this passive, unilateral pacifism—which amounts to a kind of
postwar Japanese exceptionalism—is a deep suspicion of military power per se.
In recent months, some scholars have attempted to legitimize such concerns byclaiming that the new security legislation illustrates a “security dilemma”—thenotion that actions taken by a state to improve its own security can have the paradoxical effect of heightening tensions by causing other states to step up defense
measures in response. They argue that by changing the government’s interpretationof the Constitution and taking legislative steps to strengthen the Japan-US alliance,
Japan itself is altering the status quo in a way that threatens to disrupt peace in theregion. Of course, this completely ignores the realities of our security situation
today—failing, for example, to address the issue of China’s burgeoning militarycapability, threatening behavior, and its expressed intention to alter the status quo
to achieve its claims in the East and the South China Seas.
Confronting Unilateral Pacifism
At the heart of the Japanese public’s fears and suspicions of legislation to expand
the scope of the SDF’s activities lies this unique Japanese view of peace, rooted in46

Security Legislation
bitter memories of the war and the “passive, unilateral pacifism” that took root in
an environment of heavy reliance on US military force under a strict interpretationof Article 9. The answer is not to belittle such fears or disparage them as the products of narrow-minded ideological dogma but to accept those deep-rooted concerns as a fundamental reality of Japanese society and address them directly
through persistent dialogue, even after the bills have passed.
There is no question that Japan must stand by the commitment to peace articulated in Article 9. But as the security environment surrounding Japan has changed,
so have the means required to preserve the peace. Theoretically, a number of different options are available to us in pursuit of that goal, but not all of them offera realistic chance of achieving it. Unless Japan adapts to the realities of today’schanging security environment, it will find the peace it claims to value increasingly
elusive.
The fundamental task facing our government leaders and security policy experts is to talk to the Japanese people patiently and persistently and convince themthat, given the realities confronting Japan today, continued adherence to unilateralpacifism actually puts the cause of peace at risk—that, to the contrary, the key topeace lies in the ability and willingness of the Japanese nation to adapt to a changing international environment.
The majority of the Japanese public appears to understand the need for and therationale of the new security legislation; their reluctance to support the legislation
wholeheartedly appears to be rooted in the anxieties and fears associated withexpanding the scope of SDF activities. Therefore, it is not sufficient simply to defend the necessity of each new security bill and policy as it arises. The government
must rise to the larger challenge of addressing the fears and doubts stemming fromtheir core, fundamental belief in unilateral pacifism.
Domestic Reassurance
Reassuring the people is a vitally important task for any democratic government.
In this case, the Japanese government’s success or failure in this endeavor will determine whether Japan can adapt its security policies to a changing international
environment. To reassure the people regarding the recently passed legislation, thegovernment needs to do the following.
First, every prime minister should deliver a comprehensive defense policy
speech to address the first concern mentioned above—that a broader role for the
SDF might lead Japan into waging war. The prime minister should delineate hisviews on the purposes that the SDF should fulfill and the need for deterrence in47Security Legislation
concrete terms, and he should state clearly that Japan will never use its military for
purposes of aggression as in the past. To be sure, the new security legislation theprime minister sought has been voted into law, but the government’s efforts to reassure the Japanese people on a constant, ongoing basis will determine its ability
to secure the public’s support for the deployment of the SDF in the event of a crisis
situation.
Second, in order to address the second type of fear mentioned above—that
Japan will be drawn into an American armed intervention overseas—our top officials need to speak in concrete terms regarding the implications of various international issues for Japan’s own security so as to instill an awareness of Japan’s own
independent stake in maintaining the existing international order. We need to abandon the mindset of “standing behind the United States because we owe it our allegiance as an ally.” The Japanese public needs to develop a habit of assessing thecountry’s policy toward international developments in the light of their potential
impact on Japanese security. Having raised the people’s awareness of such issues inadvance, the government will be in a better position to persuade the public, in theevent of a joint action with the United States and others, that Japan is making an
independent decision grounded in its own interests. Such a narrative must be built
on an ongoing basis to allow the Japanese people to make a more realistic appraisalof the state of international affairs.
Third, to address concerns that the new security legislation will have the paradoxical effect of exacerbating international tensions, the government needs to set
forth a comprehensive security strategy to deal with today’s changing international
environment and delineate the role the SDF and the Japan-US alliance play withinthat overarching strategy. Now that the new security legislation has been enacted,
it is time to outline an integrated strategy for promoting peace and prosperity,
spanning the entire spectrum of external policy—from diplomacy and defense to
economics, trade, and development assistance—and explain the role expanded SDF
operations have to play within that strategy. This will help relieve anxieties overthe expansion of SDF activities by making it clear that military capability is justone aspect of a much larger effort by Japan to adapt to a changing security environment.
While a main pillar of Japan’s China strategy might be deterrence throughenhancement of the Japan-US alliance and the SDF, the government should, forexample, also detail efforts at engagement in the economic and social spheres,as well as diplomatic initiatives aimed at encouraging China to take the path of
dialogue and negotiation, as opposed to unilateral action challenging thestatus quo.
48

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A Proactive Internationalist Vision
Thus far, domestic debate over Japanese security policy—erupting each time Japanfinds itself under international political pressure to contribute more to global security—has centered on the same old legalistic and emotionalistic arguments.
The recently passed legislation triggered similar debates, with the bills’ opponents
citing everything from constitutional and procedural issues to international security theory.
The surge of public interest in national security issues is to be welcomed, especially in a country where domestic economic, social, and welfare issues tend toovershadow other voter concerns. Unfortunately, none of the arguments comingfrom the opposition parties addressed the upheavals roiling the international system and the challenge Japan faces in maintaining its own peace and security in the
midst of these changes.
The distinguished political scientist Masataka Kosaka once stated that Japanese foreign policy “should aim not simply to preserve Japan’s security but topreserve it in a manner consistent with Japanese values.” He argued that the Japanese needed to be more conscious of the importance of “working to build the kindof international order that reflects our own national values.” Japan’s foremost
national value is peace and prosperity for all, and the country has worked diligently
toward this goal over the past 70 years.
The source of Japan’s peace and prosperity has already expanded its reacharound the globe. The public must come to the realization that Japan will never bea “peace state” in any meaningful sense of the term as long as we persist in viewing
international security as a matter of standing behind the United States and shirking
the risks and responsibilities of actively protecting the international order on whichpeace rests. If Japan wishes to uphold the ideal of peace enshrined in Article 9 as aJapanese value, it must work to build and maintain an international order that
supports that ideal by assessing and responding to international affairs soberly andstrategically, with Japan’s own security interests in mind.
To cope with the challenges of today’s turbulent international environment,
Japan needs to make the transition from the passive mindset of unilateral pacifism
to a more proactive internationalist vision of the world order. This shift in consciousness will not occur overnight, but now is the time to lay the foundation. In
this context, it would be a mistake to consider the controversy over the new legislation at an end, now that the bills have passed. Rather, we should view it as the
beginning of a national dialogue on the best way for Japan to pursue the ideal ofpeace while responding to a rapidly changing international environment. While49

Security Legislation
cherishing our deep feelings of remorse for the past, we must raise our eyes to thehorizon and prepare to confront the complex problems looming there with realism
and persistent vigilance.

50Security Legislation
November 5, 2015

Japan’s Security Legislation from an
Operational Perspective
Noboru Yamaguchi

There was very little debate on the actual substance of Japan’s recently enacted security legislation, despite the uproar it caused at home and abroad. Senior Fellow Noboru Yamaguchi provides an analysis of the provisions from a perspective closer to on-the-ground operations with reference to the new Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation, which sets
the parameters for cooperation between the US military and the SDF.
*

*

*

I

n spite of the great commotion caused by Japan’s new security legislation, thecontent of the bills remained largely opaque to most people. The provisions
are quite technical, and the government did not do a very good job of communicating their significance. Diet debate—which many complained was inadequate—
focused narrowly on the wording of the provisions for specific contingencies andon their constitutionality. Critics have sought to build up opposition by labelingthe bills “war legislation” and appealing to the public’s pacifist tendencies, but such
name-calling served only to thwart serious debate on what the bills actually would
enable Japan to do.
The tendency of the government to resort to legalese is quite understandable,
given its need to explain the technical details of the proposed amendments and new
stipulations. But it might be profitable to look at things from a perspective closer
to on-the-ground operations. The new Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation, released in April 2015, represent the results of high-level deliberations with
officials responsible for US military strategy and have been compiled from an operational perspective. Reference to this document, which sets the parameters forcooperation between the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, would be

Noboru Yamaguchi   Senior Fellow, Tokyo Foundation; Professor, International University of Japan.
51

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extremely useful in terms of abetting an understanding of why the provisions were
worded the way they were.
The new guidelines are organized into eight sections, of which Parts IV and V
lay out concrete measures that might be carried out during operations involving
SDF and US troops. These are Section IV, “Seamlessly Ensuring Japan’s Peace andSecurity,” and Section V “Cooperation for Regional and Global Peace and Security.” The relevant parts of these sections are as follows:
IV-A. Cooperative Measures from Peacetime
IV-B. Responses to Emerging Threats to Japan’s Peace and Security
IV-C. Actions in Response to an Armed Attack against Japan
IV-D. Actions in Response to an Armed Attack against a Country Other thanJapan
IV-E. Cooperation in Response to a Large-Scale Disaster in Japan
V-A. Cooperation in International Activities (UN Peacekeeping Operations
etc.)
V-B. Trilateral and Multilateral Cooperation
Sections IV-A through IV-E deal with responses to threats to Japan’s security.
For example, IV-B widens the geographical scope of emergencies described as “situations in surrounding areas” in earlier versions of the guidelines, while IV-D defines the limited situations in which the right of collective defense might apply. By
contrast, Sections V-A and V-B focus on how Japan and the United States will work
together for the peace and security of the international community.
With the exception of Section IV-E, which outlines responses to large-scaledisasters, the sections appear to be differentiated in terms of the levels of the potential use of weapons and military force. The figure below categorizes the actions
treated in Sections IV-A though IV-D and Section V into differently colored zones
according to the level of force they may involve: the bottom zone involving no use
of force, the middle zone involving the use of weapons mostly for law enforcement,
and the top zone involving military force. Some of the peacetime scenarios dealt
with in Section IV-A may also involve the use of weapons in some scenarios, including responding to ballistic missile attacks and protecting assets.
The situation calling for the highest level of force involves a response to anarmed attack on Japan. Article 88 of the Self-Defenses Law allows the SDF to use
force “to the limit necessary for protecting the country” when a defense operations
order is issued and conditions for the exercise of the right of self-defense are met.
This kind of scenario, which under international law is regarded as an exercise of52

Security Legislation

the right of individual self-defense, is the only case in which Japan can use militaryforce.
The part of the guidelines that deals with the right of collective self-defense—
which has been the focus of debate on the latest revisions to the national security
law—comes in Section IV-D, “Actions in Response to an Armed Attack against aCountry Other than Japan.” As the government has repeatedly explained, this rightis limited only to such situations as when an attack “threatens Japan’s survival.” Inother words, the situations in which this right would apply are very similar to thecases where the use of force for individual self-defense is permitted, such as a direct
armed attack on Japan. The new legislation merely extends this right to situations
that are more difficult to describe as relevant to the right of individual self-defense
under international law.
In assessing the legitimacy of any use of force, I believe that the extent of international consensus required provides a useful measure. The bold line in the figure
shows what level of international support is necessary for the use of force in various situations. Under the UN Charter, the use of force requiring the highest levelof international support involves cases of collective security, such as when a UN
force is created by the international community to drive out an aggressor. Article
53

Security Legislation
51 of the UN Charter acknowledges the right of individual or collective defense“until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international
peace and security” as a second-best measure in cases where a UN response is not
quick enough to defuse the situation. The recent legislation in Japan makes nosupposition of any use of armed force in a case involving Japanese participation in
a UN force, and the scenarios envisaged go no further than the yellow areas in the
figure (use of weapons, limited use of force).
In cases involving the deployment of a UN force, the agreement of the entire
international community, including all the permanent members of the Security
Council, is required, which gives such actions a high level of legitimacy. In the caseof collective self-defense, there needs to be a request from the party to be assisted,meaning that this will be based on an agreement between at least two countries—
the one providing assistance and the one requesting it. No such conditions exist in
the case of the right of individual self-defense, in which military force is exercised
based solely on the decision of the country that has come under military attack (ordeems such an attack to be imminent). We can therefore organize the three cases
as follows: collective security requires the broadest consensus, individual self-defense requires the least, and collective self-defense somewhere in between.
The new security legislation does not go so far as to enable the SDF to engage
in collective security arrangements as members of a UN force, but it does increase
the options available short of such participation. For example, authorizing the SDF
to use weapons to protect another country’s units or to carry out their missions
during UN peacekeeping operations would open up the possibility of taking partin a broader range of missions, including those in which such a need could arise.
As the figure shows, what is really new in the latest legislation is that it allows thelimited exercise of the right of collective self-defense and that it geographically
expands the areas where the SDF may be deployed to “situations that will have an
important influence on Japan’s peace and security,” rather than just “situations inareas surrounding Japan.”
There are other changes providing for a greater range of concrete options thatJapan may take that are within the parameters of the earlier constitutional interpretation and legal restrictions. For example IV-A, “Cooperative Measures from
Peacetime,” specifies that the US and Japan “will provide mutual protection of eachother’s assets if engaged in activities that contribute to the defense of Japan in acooperative manner.” This is asset protection. This gives the SDF the right to use
weapons to protect firearms and other military equipment through an extension of
the thinking that has been in place for some time.
To make the debate over the security legislation more fruitful, it is important
54

Security Legislation
to look at concrete examples of possible scenarios. It is also necessary to understand the position that such examples occupy within the overall framework ofJapan’s national security policy.
In that sense, the new guidelines provide a comprehensive vision that covers
everything from peacetime to national emergencies and international cooperation,
making it a relatively easy way to understand where each of the individual arguments stands in terms of the overall picture.

55

Security Legislation
October 8, 2015

Abe’s Hollow Victory?
Public Uproar over Collective Self-Defense
Katsuyuki Yakushiji

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe achieved a cherished policy goal with the September 19, 2015,
passage of security legislation revising the ground rules for military engagement. In the process, however, he triggered a major public backlash, underscoring the strength of the nation’s attachment to its pacifist Constitution. Katsuyuki Yakushiji weighs the costs andbenefits of Abe’s legislative victory.
*

*

*

O

n September 19, the Diet passed a package of security bills that loosen
constraints on Japan’s military and open the way to limited participationin collective self-defense, one of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s key policy
objectives.
Passage of the bills came after days of fierce clashes between the ruling andopposition parties, climaxing in the early hours of Saturday morning. Deliberationsin the Diet turned chaotic while tens of thousands of protesters chanted outside
and news helicopters whirred overhead.
It was the first time in recent memory that a piece of national legislation had
triggered such an uproar, not merely within the Diet but more widely among thegeneral public. Although the security bills concerned issues seemingly remote frompeople’s everyday lives, they turned out to be highly divisive.
The new legislation is controversial because it permits Japan to engage in collective self-defense, albeit under very limited conditions. What this means is thatthe government can deploy the Self-Defense Forces to assist an ally in combat operations overseas, even if Japan itself is not under attack. Opponents argue that
under the new laws, Japan could end up participating in an attack on anothercountry in clear violation of the postwar Constitution.

Katsuyuki Yakushiji   Senior Associate, Tokyo Foundation; Professor, Toyo University.
56

Security Legislation

In the wake of defeat in World War II, the nation adopted a pacifist Constitutionthat renounced the use of force to settle international disputes. This national commitment never again to wage war has been a basic
premise of postwar Japanese government for almost seven decades. Although this has not prevented Japan from maintaining the SDF, strict
constraints have been imposed on its scope andmode of activity.
Seen in this light, the new legislation marks amajor turning point in Japanese security policy.
But how exactly will it change things? Let us begin by reviewing the provisions at issue.
The Legislation for Peace and Security, as thegovernment has named it, consists of 10 separate
laws, whose key provisions do the following:(1) Provide greater latitude to the SDF in providing logistic, medical, and other rear- Prime Minister Abe at a meeting of theHouse of Councillors Special Committee
area support for US and other foreign on the Legislation for Peace and Secuarmed forces in situations that have a ma- rity of Japan and the International
Community. (http://japan.kantei.go.
jor impact on Japan’s security.
jp/97_abe/actions/201509/14article1(2) Permit SDF support for UN peacekeeping .html)
operations and other internationally coordinated peace and security operations, including previously prohibited “police-like” missions.
(3) Permit the deployment of SDF personnel to rescue Japanese nationals
abroad in the event that their lives are endangered by armed conflict, terrorism, etc.
(4) Permit the use of force by the SDF even if Japan is not under direct attack,in the event that a country in a close relationship with Japan is under armed
attack and Japan’s safety is threatened as a result (limited collective self-defense).
Most countries incorporate such latitude into their security policies as a matterof course. But for decades the Japanese people were told that under their war-renouncing Constitution, the Self-Defense Forces existed solely to protect the peace
57© Official Website of the Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet

What Do the New Laws Change?

Security Legislationand security of the people within the confines of their own territory (including
territorial waters and air space). This is why many now find it difficult to accept
the idea of the SDF playing a more open-ended role in war zones around the world.
Individual and Collective Self-Defense
Article 9 of the Constitution begins, “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace
based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign
right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international
disputes.” This seems a clear enough prohibition on the use of military force overseas.
The second paragraph continues, “To accomplish the aim of the preceding
paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never bemaintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.” Taken atface value, paragraph 2 would seem to deny Japan the right even to maintain its
own armed forces. However, the government has long taken the position that theConstitution does not deny Japan the right to defend itself from attack and that
the SDF is constitutional as long as its sole purpose is self-defense.
One way in which the government reassured people inside and outside of Japanthat the SDF would not overstep these bounds was by maintaining a sharp distinction between individual and collective self-defense. According to the government’s
interpretation, Article 9 permitted Japan to engage in individual self-defense but
not collective self-defense. In other words, it had a natural right to use force torepel a direct attack by another country, but it did not have the right to use force
to protect or aid an ally if Japan itself was not under direct attack. This interpretation placed limits on the size and type of Japan’s military capability and reinforced
the prohibition on the use of force overseas. The interpretation of Article 9 asprohibiting collective self-defense has been a defining feature of Japan’s security
policy under every previous postwar administration.
However, in July 2014, the Abe government issued a cabinet decision (“Development of Seamless Security Legislation to Ensure Japan’s Survival and Protect its
People”) that loosened the interpretation of Article 9 to permit the limited exerciseof the right of collective self-defense. Armed with this new interpretation, the cabinet drafted legislation (one of the laws passed on September 19) that would allow
the SDF to engage in overseas combat under the following conditions:(1) An armed attack has been launched against a foreign country that is in aclose relationship with Japan, threatening Japan’s survival and presenting a58

Security Legislation
clear danger to the Japanese people’s fundamental right to life, liberty, andthe pursuit of happiness.
(2) There are no other appropriate means available to repel the attack.
(3) Use of force is limited to the minimum degree necessary.
The government may deploy the SDF overseas to engage in military action only
if these three rigorous conditions are met.
Sidestepping the Constitution
Arguing the need for new legislation, the government pointed out that Japan’s security environment had changed fundamentally since the Constitution had comeinto effect. It made the case that Japan needed a new legal framework adapted tosuch pressing realities as the modernization and expansion of the Chinese military,
North Korea’s development and testing of nuclear weapons and missiles, the spreadof terrorism around the globe, and the relative decline of US power. It claimed thatby broadening the scope of SDF activities, including joint exercises carried out with
US forces, the new laws would strengthen the Japan-US alliance and provide amore potent deterrent to aggressive behavior by other countries in the region.
A substantial number of experts, commentators, and voters agreed, stressing
the need for new policies in the face of China’s efforts to expand control over theSouth and East China Sea in violation of international law. But such practical policy considerations did not quell the growing furor over the government’s bid toreinterpret the Constitution by fiat.
Opponents charged that the so-called Peace and Security Law was actually war
legislation designed to open the door to SDF involvement in war; that participationin collective self-defense was a violation of the Constitution; and that, if the legislation passed, Japan would become embroiled in American conflicts.
The legal argument proved particularly potent. Successive cabinets have consistently taken the position that collective self-defense is prohibited under Article
9. If collective self-defense is unconstitutional, then the only way to make it legal
is by amending the Constitution. Critics warned that the precedent of nullifying
such a longstanding and accepted interpretation with a single cabinet decision
would undermine the stability of the Constitution as the law of the land. The government could offer no satisfactory answer to this objection.
As a consequence, the bills came under fire from legal experts nationwide, including constitutional scholars, former chiefs of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, andformer Supreme Court justices. Many scholars signed petitions opposing the bills.
59

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Broad-based Backlash
Another notable feature of the recent protests was the degree of spontaneous involvement by university students and other young people. These were not, for themost part, people affiliated with and mobilized by any particular organization or
party. They were simply concerned young people who received and spread theword via social media and gathered outside the Diet Building in numbers Japan has
not seen since the early 1970s.
These protesters were afraid that the legislation could propel Japan into another war. But above all, they were outraged that the prime minister had bypassed
the prescribed democratic procedures for amending the Constitution and had reinterpreted a key provision by cabinet decision. The political methods Abe used topursue his goals ended up galvanizing a broad cross-section of the nation to action.
Notwithstanding the breadth and intensity of this backlash, Abe’s new legislation is unlikely to usher in dramatic changes in the quantity and quality of SDF
activity overseas in the foreseeable future. The three conditions noted above constitute a high hurdle to participation in combat operations in the name of collective
self-defense. In fact, the type of scenario envisioned seems unlikely in the extreme.
Some in the Defense Ministry have dismissed the most controversial portion of thelegislation as something that is unlikely ever to be put into effect.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abe could end up paying a high price for his nominal victory. In public opinion polls, between 70% and 80% of respondents said
they opposed the new security laws. For the time being, though, the Abe government’s approval rating has remained relatively stable.
And while the government was channeling its energy into passage of unpopular
security legislation, its vaunted campaign to revitalize the economy was losing
momentum, raising doubts as to the long-term efficacy of Abenomics. Soon after
passage, the prime minister returned to his economic agenda, reshuffling his cabinet
and announcing a fresh set of goals for his growth strategy, including boosting
gross domestic product to ¥600 trillion and raising the nation’s total fertility rate
to 1.8 in a bid to build a “society in which all 100 million people are actively engaged.” How these goals will be achieved, though, has yet to be spelled out.

60

Security Legislation
August 6, 2015

The Objectives of Japan’s New Security
Legislation
Masahiro AkiyamaT

he security-related legislation submitted by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has become very controversial, both in Japan and elsewhere. People are wondering why such bills were introduced, whether Abe
intends to turn Japan into a military power and expand the boundaries of self-defense, and why so many people in Japan are against them.
The legislation has two main objectives: (1) to secure Japan’s peace and integrity and (2) contribute to international peace and stability. The following gives abrief overview of the bills and their aims.
***

The securing of Japan’s peace and integrity has grown in importance due to thefundamental transformation of the security environment in recent years. This canclearly be seen in the shifting balance of power, particularly in Asia, rapid advancesin technological innovation, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, andthe rise in terrorist attacks and cyber threats. The legislation is aimed at addressingthese developments.
At the same time they are premised on the thinking that no country can secure
its peace by itself alone; in Japan’s case, it has relied on and will continue to maintain its alliance with the United States. In this context, the bills have two focuses.
One is for the Self-Defense Forces to provide logistic support for foreign forcesin situations that will have an important influence on Japan’s security. Another is
to introduce the concept of the right for collective self-defense, which the government had long interpreted as being prohibited by Article 9 of the Constitution.
With regard to the latter, in July 2014 the Japanese government decided tochange its constitutional interpretation, but the exercise of the right for collective

Masahiro Akiyama   President and Senior Fellow, Tokyo Foundation.
61

Security Legislation
self-defense is allowed in very limited situations, such as an armed attack against
a foreign naval vessel (belonging to the US Navy, for example) in waters close to
Japan that poses a threat to Japan’s survival.
***

The second component of the legislation—contributing to world peace and stability—is an important pillar of Japan’s foreign policy. The international community
has indicated its desire for Japan to shoulder a bigger security burden, and Abesought to honor such requests by announcing in his policy speech before the Dietthat he would promote Japan’s proactive contributions to international peace.
Two different activities are envisioned by this. One is related to the expansion
or easing of restrictions in the use of arms during UN peacekeeping operations.
Another is the provision of logistic support when collectively addressing a situationthat threatens international peace and security, based on a UN resolution or otherinternational consensus.
***

Prime Minister Abe certainly does not intend to make Japan a military power. It isonly in response to the transformation of the security environment that he felt theneed to make the Japan-US alliance more functional and to promote collaboration
with strategic partners. Japan, after all, has not changed its exclusively defense-oriented posture, and there has been no significant increase in the defense budget for
20 years.
The expansion of the boundaries of self-defense to include the exercise of collective self-defense is extremely limited, as mentioned above; still, it is much narrower than the right most other countries enjoy. It has, moreover, nothing to dowith Russia; in fact, there is every possibility of Japan providing logistic support to
Russian forces, for example, during UN peace-keeping operations and within otherinternational peace support frameworks.
***

The phenomenon of so many Japanese people protesting the legislation is quite
curious and is no doubt related to the change in the interpretation of Article 9. The
article reads as follows:

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Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, theJapanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation andthe threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and airforces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right ofbelligerency of the state will not be recognized.
The article was the basis for the controversy surrounding the Self-Defense
Forces. The constitutionality of the SDF has been firmly established by assigning it
an exclusively defensive role, though, preventing it from being used as “means ofsettling international disputes.” The SDF’s activities and operations are severely
restricted; moreover, its participation in collective defense arrangements that may
lead to taking military action in foreign countries had been prohibited.
The government’s reinterpretation of Article 9 eases this prohibition for a very
limited number of cases. The new legislation has nonetheless triggered a strong
backlash among those who criticize it as being unconstitutional. While the bills
merely call for procedural changes, critics have begun calling them “war bills” andhave incited a public uproar.
The government should have explained that the bills have many other important objectives, but the prime minister chose to focus on the right of collective
self-defense, even though this right is very narrowly circumscribed. To make matters worse, the legislation is very complex with many gray zones, raising suspicionsthat it was intended to enable Japan to wage war.
Deliberations on the bills that are now starting in the upper house could dispel
such suspicions and lead to a more balanced understanding of the legislation. Toward that end, the government should seek the cooperation and support of a number of opposition parties. This would also contribute to a better understanding of
Abe’s initiative among foreign countries.

The article was originally published on the website of the Valdai Discussion Club.
It is reprinted here with the permission of the Club.

63Foreign Aid Policy
September 9, 2015

Rethinking Japan’s Foreign Aid
Widening the Scope of Assistance from a Security Perspective
The Tokyo Foundation

FOREWORD1(To the English summary of the Policy Proposal)
Foreign aid has been called Japan’s “most important foreign policy tool.” It forms
the basis for our influence among the world’s developing countries and is said toplay a pivotal role in our diplomatic activities. But changing circumstances, including our own fiscal constraints, have made it imperative for Japan to make more
effective use of economic assistance and other resources by creatively combining
them in pursuit of common foreign-policy objectives.
In the following summary of our policy proposals, we make the case for an
overarching foreign aid policy that requires expanding the areas of peace-building
assistance beyond the confines of traditional development cooperation to incorporate a broader range of tools. To achieve this, we outline nine specific policy recommendations.
August 2015
Masahiro Akiyama
President, Tokyo Foundation
OVERVIEW
Japan has an important role to play in support of international peace, stability, andprosperity. For decades now, Japan’s contribution to international society has focused overwhelmingly on support for economic and social development via official
development assistance (ODA). Henceforth Japan needs to further broaden thescope of its overseas activities, especially in relation to international security. We
The original (full) version of the report in Japanese was published in October 2014. It isavailable at: http://www.tkfd.or.jp/files/doc/2014-03.pdf

164Foreign Aid Policy
are facing ever-diversifying security threats, partly due to globalization—including
piracy, violent extremism, large-scale natural disasters, and epidemics, in addition
to the armed conflicts of the past—that possibly may negate the development gains
of recent years. Moreover, international peace and stability is essential to thewell-being of our country.
In its National Security Strategy (NSS) and Japan Revitalization Strategy, thegovernment of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has identified the creation of an international environment favorable to Japan a national goal. Recognizing the importance of foreign aid as a policy tool for achieving this goal, the government also
formulated a new Development Cooperation Charter, approved by the cabinet inFebruary 2015. But achieving such a challenging objective in today’s rapidly changing world requires a more focused use of resources and a comprehensive framework that integrates the entire range of foreign aid tools at our disposal. Thus, tofacilitate Japan’s engagement in the tasks required for international peace andstability, we have drawn up the following policy recommendations.
SUMMARY OF PROPOSALS
Building the Foundation for a Comprehensive Approach
Proposal 1 To better address the issues of international peace and security,
Japan’s peace-building initiatives should be expanded to encompass activities
under every relevant policy area, from economic and social development to diplomacy and security. The government should begin erecting a framework for atruly “comprehensive approach” to unify policy goals and guidelines acrossgovernment agencies and facilitate operational cooperation in the field.

Until now, Japan has placed peace-building activities under the rubric of economic
and social development assistance and has limited such activities, narrowly targeting conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction. But security has multiple
dimensions and requires wide-ranging support in every sector. This echoes thenotion referred to in the National Security Strategy calling for a framework to facilitate “seamless assistance in security-related areas,” combining various modes ofassistance. It is time to act on that policy, and to do so, the government needs to go
beyond the calls for greater interagency cooperation and to promote the “All Japan
approach” currently being advanced in the field. The Japanese government should
also consider extending the scope of its peace-building assistance for fragile andunstable states.
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Proposal 2 We recognize the fact that development and regional stability issues are becoming ever more closely intertwined. In order for the government
to better respond to the challenges ahead, an office of peace building and international security should be created within the National Security Council—
the central organ for orchestrating a comprehensive approach —to coordinate
economic aid and SDF operations abroad.

We call on the government to create an administrative unit within the National
Security Council to oversee cooperation in the areas of peace building and international security, including overseas activities of the Self Defense Forces (SDF) likepeacekeeping, counter-piracy and other multinational operations, HA/DR (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief), and capacity building. Where applicable, theuse of ODA and other forms of assistance should be examined closely at this levelto attain multiplier effects. The unit should be given the capability and authority
to coordinate interagency policy in relation to national and regional strategies thatare drawn up on the basis of long-term analyses of the internal and external situation; to specify the resources needed to put those strategies into effect; and toestablish priorities for the allocation of resources and guidelines for their use.
Enhancing the Impact of Japan’s Peace-Building Assistance
Proposal 3 The development and pooling of civilians equipped to provide security-related assistance is an urgent priority for Japan. As part of this effort, thecurrent Foreign Ministry program for human resources development in the areaof peace building, which is earmarked for expansion, should train civilians towork effectively with law-enforcement and security personnel in the field. At
the same time, steps should be taken to create an environment conducive toroutine communication between the aid community and the security sector,
both at the policymaking level and in the field.

Anticipating that peace-building personnel may be called on to work collaboratively with law-enforcement and military officials, Japan needs to develop a poolof trained civilians equipped with a cross-sectoral grasp of security and development issues. They should also have a good understanding of the legal bases andconstraints, and operational formats governing the SDF. Furthermore, the government should step up its efforts to build active collaborative mechanisms between
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA) as well as between the Ministry of Defense and the SDF so as to cultivate a66

Foreign Aid Policy
shared culture of respect and working together. Facilitating joint planning and field
operations will also benefit both communities to enhance field situational awareness and risk management, and in streamlining evacuation procedures.
Proposal 4 For each overseas SDF mission, a foreign policy and development
advisor should be appointed to provide diplomatic support. Having such political advisors at the field level would serve to strengthen information-sharing
and collaboration between the SDF and diplomatic personnel. They could also
help clarify the foreign-policy relevance and rationale of the SDF’s activities andprovide diplomatic advices in external relations for the SDF mission commander.

In July 2014, the government established the new post of vice-minister of defense
for international affairs to strengthen defense diplomacy functions within the Ministry of Defense. This is an important step in properly communicating Japanese
defense policies abroad and promoting top-level security cooperation. However, we
believe that to support the SDF’s international engagements, there is also a need forlower-level political counselors or senior political advisors for each deployment toprovide direct diplomatic and foreign-policy support to SDF mission commanders.
Such support is needed as the mission commander is the sole or one of very few
representatives for Japan (when there is no diplomatic presence) in field operations.
Proposal 5 Japan’s defense installation in Djibouti should be assigned a broader
role to support regional security. It can uphold such functions and serve as asupply base for SDF operations in providing emergency humanitarian aid, disaster relief, peacekeeping, and reconstruction assistance in Africa. Furthermore,
the government should move swiftly to institute and fund an operable systemof civil-affairs programs by the SDF.

As a part of international counter-piracy efforts off the Horn of Africa, Japan
maintains a base in Djibouti for the purpose of conducting aerial surveillance andearly warning operations. Going forward, this installation should be assigned
broader functions as a supply base for SDF operations in the provision of emergency humanitarian aid, disaster relief, peacekeeping, and reconstruction assistancein Africa. Also, as a point of entry to the region, the facility can serve as a center of
SDF pre-deployment training and capacity-building programs, a coordination hub
with aid personnel, and for the rescue and evacuation of Japanese civilians (that is,noncombatant evacuation operations), and a point for information sharing andsecurity cooperation with the United States, France, the EU and other partners. In
67Foreign Aid Policy
order to maintain and advance SDF operations, it is imperative that the SDF start
providing civil-affairs programs for the local community. The Japanese government
should establish a flexible system and funding scheme so that deployed forces caninitiate such programs with the approval of the Japanese ambassador and the SDF
commanding officer in the field. It could well be linked to regional ODA projects
and could help Japan build and maintain ties in the host region, thereby strengthening Japan’s international presence.
Developing Non-ODA Peace-Building Tools
Proposal 6 We strongly urge the government to begin instituting new, more
flexible mechanisms of economic cooperation and linking such aid with its security cooperation policies. It should also expand its interpretation of the principles governing Japanese ODA to permit aid for infrastructure with the potential for dual civilian-military use.

We believe that Japan should remain faithful to its longstanding postwar commitment to peace and to the principle that “any use of ODA for military purposes orfor aggravation of internal conflicts should be avoided.” At the same time, we must
recognize the fact that public resources in developing countries may be heavily
concentrated in the law-enforcement and military branches, and that any effective
aid program needs to take into account the role such agencies play in the deliveryof disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, and other activities to assist and protect
civilians. For this reason, Japan should consider developing mechanisms for nonODA economic cooperation applicable to situations and purposes outside thescope of current practices. In addition, the government should relax its interpretation of the abovementioned principle to allow the use of ODA for the developmentof infrastructure with the potential for dual civilian-military use, such as airport
runways.
Proposal 7 To support efforts for regional stability, the efficacy of the capacity-building assistance programs carried out by the Defense Ministry and the
SDF needs to be enhanced. Changes in the legal infrastructure, including
amendments to the Act for the Establishment of the Ministry of Defense, will
be necessary to enhance the design and implementation of these projects andallow for the transfer of needed equipment.

Japan’s capacity-building assistance differs from that of the United States and Eu68

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ropean countries in that it is not geared to building recipients’ capacity to conduct
combat operations. Instead, it is oriented to such goals as enabling “recipient countries to contribute to the stability and improvement of the international security
environment” targeting such areas as HA/DR, maritime security, military medicine,and UN peacekeeping operations. To enhance the effectiveness of such assistance,
Japan needs to revise its legal infrastructure to incorporate capacity building among
the official duties of the Ministry of Defense and the SDF. It should also design asystem for a careful, ongoing review of capacity-building projects to ensure thatthey do not have such unintended consequences as fueling regional tensions or
supporting government oppression against its own people.
Proposal 8 The new “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment andTechnology” has opened the way for the transfer of defense equipment needed
to preserve the stability of the region. Japan should begin laying the foundation for measures (such as grants, loans, and operational support) to assist othercountries in the acquisition of costly defense equipment.

“The Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology,” approved by the cabinet in April 2014, have opened the way for the transfer of defense equipment for purposes of international security cooperation, including UN
peacekeeping, anti-terrorism, and anti-piracy operations, as well as to help enhance
the security capabilities of developing countries. This has greatly expanded thescope of Japan’s potential contribution to international security by permitting thetransfer of equipment deemed consistent with peaceful purposes. It has also madepossible the export of equipment to be used for cooperation in search and rescue,transport, early warning, surveillance, and minesweeping with close, like-mindedcountries. One stumbling block is cost. Keeping in mind the region’s growing challenges, including the defense of sea lanes, the government should examine thepossibilities for providing public and private forms of financial assistance to purchasing countries.
Looking Ahead: Formulating the Principles for Comprehensive Cooperation
Proposal 9 Japan’s foreign aid should provide meaningful support geared tothe two basic goals of human security, namely, “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear.” With these broad aims in mind, the government should draw
up a set of overarching principles and policies to guide a truly comprehensive
approach to international cooperation, extending to such areas as public ad69

Foreign Aid Policy
ministration and culture, to chart a long-term course for a “proactive contribution to peace based on international cooperation.”

The preamble of the Constitution of Japan states that “all peoples of the world
have the right to live in peace, free from fear and want” and pledges the nation’s
ongoing efforts “to accomplish these high ideals.” These freedoms are the two pillars of human security, which is the guiding principle of the Development Cooperation Charter. Yet, in practice, Japanese foreign aid has been slanted toward “freedom from want.” To act on the nation’s constitutional ideals, the government
should open the way for an approach to international cooperation that includes
greater aspects of freedom from fear.
Looking ahead, Japan will need a set of principles to guide an approach tointernational cooperation that integrates all relevant sectors, each of which has an
impact on the others. We should begin now to systematically integrate all the existing tools of foreign aid into a comprehensive and seamless policy framework,
enhancing genuine partnership among a wide range of public, private, and nonprofit actors in Japan’s international cooperation.

70Foreign Aid Policy***

About the Project on “Linking Foreign Aid and Security Cooperation”
This project aims to assess Japan’s foreign assistance from the perspective of security. Particularly, it explores approaches to achieving more effective linkages between traditional aid and such Ministry of Defense initiatives as international
peace cooperation activities and capacity building of other militaries. The project
also studies similar trends in other donor countries in the hope of clarifying Japan’s
foreign policy priorities and the importance of international peace and stability for
its own security.
Needless to say, maintaining international peace and stability is one of Japan’schief interests. However, mounting public debt at home and growing contentiousness with its East Asian neighbors may inhibit Japan from taking a further proactive role. Thus, Japan’s foreign engagement needs to be reexamined so as to produce the maximum results within limited means and resources. This requires amore synthesized, inter-agency approach that goes beyond traditional tool-basedor country-based planning. Such planning must start with the identification ofstrategic objectives in a given region and then assess policy issues and the available
means to address the problems.
The United States and many European countries are adopting similar approaches with the understanding that international peace and stability are essential
for maintaining the international order and safeguarding economic interests thatpertain to national security. The EU, for example, has been adopting rigorous policy measures under a “comprehensive approach” to address linkages between
development and security. This project also examines the lessons learned by thesecountries in Iraq and Afghanistan and in the wake of the various insurgencies of
the 1990s and explores the possibility of multilayered security cooperation withsuch like-minded countries.
Project Leader:
Akiko Fukushima, Senior Fellow, Tokyo Foundation
Member:Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow & Project Manager, Tokyo Foundation

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International Affairs
November 16, 2015

Can America’s Hedging Strategy Last?
Paul J. Saunders

Washington is pursuing a hedging strategy toward Beijing in the hopes of accruing the benefits of cooperation while avoiding the costs of competition. The core problem, Paul Saunders
notes, is whether the United States and China can develop a sufficiently trusting relationship for engagement to succeed even as Washington conveys mistrust. The current state of
the US-Russia relationship may be a cautionary tale.
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A

merica’s recent “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China
Sea—and the possibility of a direct conflict between the United States andChina—have again focused attention on the highly complex US-China
relationship and the broader security environment in the Asia-Pacific region. While
Washington attempted to demonstrate that the operations were not directed solely
at China by sending the same destroyer that sailed near Beijing’s new artificial islands through areas claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam, the message was aclear one. Less clear is the course of the growing US-China rivalry in East Asia.
US policy toward China in the post–Cold War era has incorporated elementsof both cooperation and competition. Analysts generally describe US strategy as
one of “hedging” or, in other words, pursuing engagement with China while simultaneously taking prudent steps to defend important US national interests, which
includes upholding commitments to US allies. Most consider this a sensible approach that minimizes the risks of a policy oriented exclusively toward engagement
or confrontation.
Indeed, there are strong reasons to take this approach. The United States hasenormous economic interests in the US-China relationship, which (among otherthings) helps to finance US government borrowing, earns substantial returns for US

Paul J. Saunders   Executive Director, Center for the National Interest (Washington,
DC).
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International Affairs
investors and exporters, and provides inexpensive goods to American consumers.
Sharply reducing or cutting off the US-China relationship would be extremely
costly. Conversely, of course, the United States has enormous security interests inEast Asia. Any nation that dominated the region could pose a direct threat to theUnited States and challenge US international leadership, an invaluable asset inprotecting American global interests.
America’s China Policy Dilemma
While the US has many other security and economic interests in East Asia—including some in each area that are countervailing—this simplistic collision between
economic and security interests is America’s fundamental dilemma. Of course,
there could also be security benefits to engagement, such as joint efforts to deal
with problems like Syria, or economic benefits to confrontation, such as expanded
trade and investment relations with US allies and others in the region. The hedging
strategy is so attractive because it appears to allow Washington to do all of this at
the same time and thereby to avoid making very difficult and consequential choices.
But does it?
Hedging rests on the assumption that in simultaneously pursuing cooperativeand competitive policies, the United States will achieve the best of both worlds,
accruing many of the benefits of cooperation while avoiding most of the costs ofcompetition. However, it seems at least equally possible that this strategy could
actually produce the worst of both worlds—by contributing to a situation in which
America gains few of the benefits of cooperation (and accepts many of its costs)
while shouldering many of the costs of competition (yet winning few of its benefits). The core problem is one of trust: can the United States and China develop a
sufficiently trusting relationship for engagement to succeed even as Washington
conveys its mistrust by hedging?
How Hedging Can Fail
From this perspective, the US-Russia relationship may be a cautionary tale. Washington has pursued a broadly similar policy toward Russia—“cooperate when wecan, confront when we must”—for much of the last two decades. That relationshiphas virtually collapsed due to deep mutual mistrust. Moscow sees US military interventions and support for regime change as evidence of opposition to Russia’s
status as a great power that will ultimately culminate in an effort to oust Russia’s
leaders and replace them with a friendly democratic government that would not73International Affairs
uphold Russia’s national interests. Washington sees Russia as seeking to reestablish
dominance across the former Soviet region and central Europe through force, intimidation, and political meddling. This is not about who is right or wrong, but
about a set of current outcomes that look predictable in retrospect (and that somepredicted in advance). In many respects, the United States and China now seem tobe on a similar path.
Unfortunately, America’s hedging strategy thus far looks inadequate to the task
ahead. If China is also hedging, the cooperative side of the bilateral relationshiplooks too weak to prevent serious conflict. US-China trade and investment are
vastly greater than US-Russia economic ties—and therefore create influential constituencies favoring a stable relationship—but can carry only so much politicalweight, particularly when Americans are again questioning trade deals and when
China’s political system is under stress. To put it most directly, economic interdependence did not prevent England and Germany from going to war in 1914. Unfortunately, when the psychology of an interdependent relationship tips into confrontation, mutual dependencies can rapidly evolve from points of cooperation tosources of leverage. When that happens, larger dependencies produce greater leverage and higher stakes. Consider European Union economic sanctions against Russia or, for that matter, US oil sales to Imperial Japan.
At the same time, if China is instead pursuing the strategy perhaps most fearedby the United States and its allies—gradually escalating confrontation camouflaged
by limited cooperation in certain areas—the US rebalance to Asia seems unlikely
to deter increasingly self-confident Chinese leaders with expanding anti-access/area-denial capabilities and a sense that America is past its prime. The fact that theUnited States would eventually prove them wrong would not reduce the potential
costs of this situation.
From a policy perspective, these realities suggest two key conclusions. First,
hedging is probably not sustainable indefinitely. Secondly, however, because hedging is currently far preferable to taking considerable risks by making a clear choice
between engagement and confrontation, the United States should pursue hedging
in a way that can work as long as possible. That means simultaneously trying muchharder both to cooperate with China and to compete with it without provoking a
conflict. It won’t be easy.

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Voices from the Sylff Community
November 9, 2015

The Socioeconomic Dimension of Irrawaddy
Dolphin Conservation
Sierra Deutsch

Sierra Deutsch, a Sylff fellow at the University of Oregon, went to Myanmar and Cambodia to assess the two countries’ different approaches to natural resource management. In
this article, she describes the preliminary findings of her research and argues that the experiences of local people affected by natural resource policies are important and may have implications for the success of those policies.
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s concern has grown over the alarming acceleration of environmental
problems since the emergence of the industrial era, the science of natural
resource management has evolved in an effort to confront such issues. In
recent years, conservation efforts have shifted from a focus on individual species
to an ecosystem-based management(EBM) approach. With this change,
the concept of the “human dimensions” of resource management—
which emphasizes the diverse forms ofknowledge and beliefs of stakeholders
and their incorporation in conservation policy1—has come to the fore2,3.
It is now widely recognized that natu- The Mekong.
ral resource management is reallyabout the management of natural resource users1,3,4. Taking it a step further, recent
research has pointed to the importance of socioeconomic analyses in conservation
research strategies5,6.

Sierra Deutsch   Sylff Fellow, 2014, University of Oregon, where she is a PhD candidatein the interdisciplinary Environmental Sciences, Studies, and Policy (ESSP) program.
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Voices from the Sylff Community
Historically, the question “Is this conservation project working?” has often
been answered without considering the perceptions and experiences of the people
whose livelihoods are most directly affected by conservation policies7,8. While biological indicators are obviously an important part of conservation work, understanding how conservation programs are perceived and experienced by the local
communities most affected by them is also vital—both for the sake of the communities themselves and because support from those communities may have important implications for the long-term success of conservation efforts.
The Status of the Irrawaddy Dolphin
The Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevirostris) inhabits rivers throughout Southeast Asia and coastal waters in the Indianand Pacific Oceans from the Bay of Bengal to the Philippines9. The species islisted as “threatened” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN), with five sub-populations listed Cambodia critical dolphin habitat and researchsites.
as “critically endangered.” Since the dolphins are not hunted directly for consumption, they are considered a “nonconsumptive” resource.
The main threats to their survival are upstream industrial pollution, accidental
catches by gillnet fishing, and mortalities resulting from electro-fishing9,10,11,12.
Conservation measures that seek to aid in the recovery of Irrawaddy dolphin
populations must therefore address the socioeconomic factors that indirectly affecttheir survival, making Irrawaddy dolphin conservation projects an ideal focus fora study on the socioeconomic dimension of conservation initiatives.
Conservation measures for the Irrawaddy dolphin vary by country. They
include attempts to mitigate habitat degradation, restrictions on the fishing practices and gear that endanger the dolphins,
educational outreach, poverty alleviation
through development, encouragement of
tourism, and formation of fisher cooperatives9,10,12. Each country has had varying
Myanmar critical dolphin habitat and researchsites.
success in conservation of the Irrawaddy
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Voices from the Sylff Community
dolphin and, because of its widespread distribution in multiple countries, the Irrawaddy dolphin is also an ideal subject for a cross-country comparison of conservation projects.
Diversification vs. Preservation: Two Contrasting Approaches
Cambodia’s approach seeks to preserve the status quo of privatized resources andfocuses more on the diversification of livelihoods and the economic developmentof rural communities13. Meanwhile,
Myanmar has focused more on thepreservation of livelihoods in ruralcommunities14. Cambodia’s approachseems to be failing and the imminent
extinction of its dolphin population
has been predicted15, while Myanmar’s approach seems relatively successful14. Yet the perceptions and ex- Fisherman on the Ayeyarwady River (Myanmar).
periences of these policies by thepeople that are most directly affected, while taken into consideration during planning and implementation4,14, seem to have been largely ignored once the policies
have been implemented.
Bringing Local People into the Discussion
I used questionnaires to gather data for the hypotheses I have about different perceptions of conservation among the participants. But I also wanted to make surethat participants were given an opportunity to highlight what was important to them. Too many well-intentioned
Western researchers go to “developing”countries and make assumptions
about the needs and desires of their
participants without bothering to ask
the local people in those countries
Fisherman on the Mekong (Cambodia).
what they think. Of course, I had toset out with at least a few questions
and expectations in mind—if only because it is virtually impossible to get funding
without them! But I purposely chose to carry out personal interviews and fo77

Voices from the Sylff Community
cus-group discussions—in addition to questionnaires and participant observation—to allow participants to tell me what was important to them and what theywanted foreign researchers to help with in the future.
Preliminary Findings
At the conclusion of my fieldwork, I had a total of 128 individual interviews, 275
completed questionnaires, and 25 focus-group discussions. These came from 8
riverside villages in Myanmar and another 8 in Cambodia (16 villages in total). The
data are still in the preliminary stagesof analysis: All of the audio recordings
still need to be transcribed in Burmese
and Khmer and then translated. (I felt
this was a more accurate way of assessing the data, since the interpreters
I used on-site may have left out someof what was said, assuming it wasn’t
important enough to repeat). How- One of the research villages in Myanmar.
ever, I have already seen several
themes emerge and hope to confirm them once I have the full translations.
First, virtually all participants seem to think fondly of the Irrawaddy dolphin
and expressed a desire to continue to protect it. Second, many participants in bothcountries seemed to express frustration with ongoing corruption—law enforcement often takes monetary bribes in exchange for “looking the other way” when
illegal fishing gear (which unintentionally harms dolphins as well) is used in theriver. Many of those participants seemed concerned for the future of the river andits ability to supply the fish that is their primary source of protein. Third, while
participants in both countries seem to feel that conditions in their communities
have improved over the last 10 years, I was surprised by the differences in how
participants expressed that improvement.
Many of the people in Cambodia—where they have experienced a shift toward
capitalism since the early 1980s—tended to emphasize the presence and role ofmoney in their lives, often discussing improvements in terms of people having bigger houses, owning motorbikes or cars, and having more money in general (basically, the standard symbols of Western “wealth”). In contrast, participants in
Myanmar—where they have just recently begun to experience a shift toward capitalism since 2010—seemed to place more emphasis on community enrichment,
frequently discussing improvements in terms of things like better schools, improved78

Voices from the Sylff Community
medical treatment, and the construction of flood walls. While these are only preliminary findings that need to be confirmed, they are also just a few of the themes
immediately obvious from the data. I am confident that many exciting and important findings remain to be made.
Encouraging the Involvement of Underrepresented Groups
Traveling has always been one of my great loves. As I spent more time traveling,
particularly in developing countries, I gradually became aware of a desire to address the social and environmental problems that seemed to be everywhere. I had
the opportunity to meet many people along the way from diverse geopolitical regions, cultures, ethnicities, religions, genders, and ages who were contributing tosolutions for these social and environmental problems.
Around the same time, I began to become aware of my undeserved privilege asa middle-class, white North American to access resources—such as education andthe ability to travel abroad—that are not available to the vast majority of the world’s
population. Because of this awareness and because of these interactions with thepeople who inspired me, I decided that even though I enjoyed studying whales anddolphins immensely, I felt a deep responsibility to use the resources available to me
to contribute to the peace and well-being of humankind and the planet.
It is my hope that the results of this study will encourage more involvement ofunderrepresented groups in assessing the effectiveness of environmental and otherpolicies on a local, regional, national, and global scale. I believe that acknowledging the diverse ways in which people experience and perceive conservation initiatives is especially important where conservation policy appears to be failing. The
addition of alternative worldviews to a collective analysis may ultimately lead tomore effective approaches to, and better solutions for, the environmental problems
that affect us all.
Literature Cited

Decker, Daniel J, Riley, Shawn J and Siemer, William F (2012) Human dimensions of wildlife management, JHU Press.
2
Berkes, Fikret (2012) ‘Implementing ecosystem-based management: evolution or
revolution?’ Fish and Fisheries, 13(4), pp. 465–476.
3
McLeod, Karen and Leslie, Heather (2009) ‘Why ecosystem-based management’,in McLeod, K. L. and Leslie, H. M. (eds.), Ecosystem-Based Management for the
Oceans, Washington, D.C., Island Press.
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Beasley, Isabel (2007) ‘Conservation of the Irrawaddy dolphin, Orcaella brevirostris (Owen in Gray, 1866) in the Mekong River: biological and social considerations influencing management.’
5
Clausen, Rebecca and York, Richard (2008) ‘Global biodiversity decline of marine and freshwater fish: a cross-national analysis of economic, demographic,
and ecological influences.’ Social Science Research, 37(4), pp. 1310–1320.
6
Clausen, Rebecca and Clark, Brett (2005) ‘The metabolic rift and marine ecology: an analysis of the ocean crisis within capitalist production.’ Organization& Environment, 18(4), pp. 422–444.
7
Kellert, Stephen R, Mehta, Jai N, Ebbin, Syma A and Lichtenfeld, Laly L (2000)‘Community natural resource management: promise, rhetoric, and reality.’ Society & Natural Resources, 13(8), pp. 705–715.
8
Moore, Kathleen Dean and Russell, Roly (2009) ‘Toward a new ethic for theoceans’, in McLeod, K. and Leslie, H. (eds.), Ecosystem-Based Management for
the Oceans, Island Press, pp. 325–340.
9
Baird, Ian G and Beasley, Isabel L (2005) ‘Irrawaddy dolphin Orcaella brevirostris in the Cambodian Mekong River: an initial survey.’ Oryx, 39(3), pp. 301–310.
10Smith, Brian D and Hobbs, Larry (2002) ‘Status of Irrawaddy dolphins Orcaellabrevirostris in the upper reaches of the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar.’ Raffles
Bulletin of Zoology, 50, pp. 67–74.
11
Stacey, Pam J and Leatherwood, Stephen (1997) ‘The Irrawaddy dolphin, Orcaella brevirostris: a summary of current knowledge and recommendations forconservation action.’ Asian Marine Biology, 14, pp. 195–214.
12
Smith, Brian D, Tun, Mya Than, Chit, Aung Myo, Win, Han and Moe, Thida(2009) ‘Catch composition and conservation management of a human–dolphin
cooperative cast-net fishery in the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar.’ Biological Conservation, 142(5), pp. 1042–1049.
13
Beasley, Isabel, Marsh, Helene, Jefferson, Thomas A and Arnold, Peter (2009)‘Conserving dolphins in the Mekong River: the complex challenge of competinginterests’, in The Mekong: Biophysical environment of an international river
basin, Sydney, Australia, Elsevier Press, pp. 363–387.
14
Smith, Brian D and Tun, Mya Than (2007) ‘Status and conservation of Irrawaddy
dolphins Orcaella brevirostris in the Ayeyarwady River of Myanmar’, in Smith,
B. D., Shore, R. G., and Lopez, A. (eds.), Status and Conservation of Freshwater
Populations of Irrawaddy Dolphins, WCS Working Paper Series No. 31., New
York, Wildlife Conservation Society, pp. 21–40.
15
Beasley, Isabel, Pollock, K, Jefferson, T A, Arnold, P, et al. (2012) ‘Likely future
480

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extirpation of another Asian river dolphin: The critically endangered populationof the Irrawaddy dolphin in the Mekong River is small and declining.’ Marine
Mammal Science.

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Voices from the Sylff Community
November 26, 2015

Identifying Effective Prevention andIntervention Strategies for School Bullying in
New Zealand
The Tokyo Foundation

Jaimee Stuart, who received a Sylff fellowship at New Zealand’s Victoria University in
2009–11, organized a conference on school bullying as a Sylff Leadership Initiatives (SLI)
project on July 8, 2015, in Wellington, New Zealand. Attending the workshop as observers
from the Tokyo Foundation were Mari Suzuki, director for leadership development, and program officer Mana Sakamoto. The following is a report by Mana Sakamoto.
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ew Zealand has one of the highest prevalence of bullying in the world,with nearly 70% of students aged 8 to 12 and 50% aged 13 to 17 having
experienced bullying at their schools, according to a Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. Drawing on her research and experience asa phycologist, Sylff fellow Jaimee Stuart
convened a mini-conference titled “Bullying: Identifying Effective Prevention andIntervention Strategies” to address thisserious social problem, bringing together
75 participants from research institutions, governmental agencies, community
organizations, and the media for a rareopportunity to share best practices anddiscuss how the issue can be tackled to- Jaimee Stuart.
gether.
Despite the pervasiveness of school bullying in New Zealand, which was found
to affect both bullies and victims negatively even after they reached middle age, themany school-based interventions have failed to achieve beneficial changes in behavior. This is believed to be because such programs are not based on research

82Voices from the Sylff Community

evidence, they do not systematically address the complexity of bullying behavior,and they do not have broad community and government support.
By convening this conference, Stuart—a research fellow at the Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural Research and the Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study ofFamilies at the Victoria University of Wellington—sought to encourage fuller dialogue among policymakers, researchers, and practitioners. She also hoped to produce an evidence base on which guidelines for effective intervention and prevention
guidelines can be developed and issued to families, schools, and communities. A setof resources on bullying, including video presentations of the sessions to be disseminated online and an edited book for the general public compiled with submissions
from invited presenters, will also be produced.
Potentially Fatal Consequences
In her opening remarks, Stuart pointed out that minority
groups, such as the Maori, can also become targets of bullying, as many people find it difficult to accept the symbolicrole of this indigenous group in New Zealand culture. Likewise, sexual minorities and increasing numbers of immigrants are often victimized. Bullying can have long-term
repercussions for both perpetrators and victims, she noted,with bullied students more likely to suffer poor health anddevelop psychological symptoms and bullies having greaterrisk of serious injury and of becoming substance abusers
and criminal offenders. The consequences, she added, cansometimes be fatal.
The workshop was held in conjunction with the 19th Conference of Austral83

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asian Human Development Association, which was organized to share knowledge,
wisdom, and research-based insights into healthy development for young people
and families. Held the day before the start of the AHDA conference, Stuart’s workshop helped to shed light on bullying behavior and encouraged dialogue for a fuller
range of participants.
Short presentations introduced key statistics regarding youth behavior and implications for long-term, negative health and social influences. Examples of intervention and prevention programs were shared, including KiVa, an evidence-based
intervention for school bullying developed in Finland with funding from the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture. Through an online game, students learn thebest ways to deal with bullying behavior. Three schools in New Zealand currently
use KiVa in their curriculum, and in the light of the preliminary positive results,
many more schools are expected to adopt this program.
In another short presentation, the Gibson Group introduced a documentary
about a unique intervention program in New Zealand schools that was shown on
a national network in July. Small tutorials are held with students to discuss bullying
behavior that is actually occurring in their class, enabling students to understandhow their behaviors have led to bullying (http://www.gibson.co.nz/screen-projects/bullies).
In addition, a number of concurrent workshops were held, including one on
cyber bullying that discussed cases of online intimidation and harassment. Differences with face-to-face or physical bullying were noted, such as anonymity, andschools were urged to provide training for teachers so they can quickly spot such
hidden forms of bullying.
Another workshop given by the Ministry of Social Development asked participants to create a community intervention plan involving students and their families, highlighting the importance of community and family involvement in addressing school bullying. Other workshops and a panel discussion were held on such
topics as the influence of family violence on girls’ behavior, safe and peacefulschools, and the role of the community in addressing bullying.
“One of the Best Workshops I Have Been To”
All the objectives of Stuart’s SLI project were met. The sessions of the conference
were filmed so that videos can later be shared with other experts, filling an important void in resources. New networks were formed among the participants, whichshould not only lead to an improved school environment but also engender new
initiatives to combat bullying. Based on the results of the conference, Stuart also84

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plans to present policy proposals to the Bullying Prevention Advisory Group andpublish a book in the near future.
The conference generated great enthusiasm among participants, who referred
to it as “one of the best workshops I have been to in my professional career.” One
doctoral student at the University of Auckland, who drove all the way to Wellington to attend the conference, said he was impressed by the commitment otherparticipants had shown in addressing the issue, adding that he was able to actively
communicate with experts and gather information for his research.
Many speakers related their firsthand experiences with bullies. Sharing emotionally difficult stories required great courage, but they were determined not toretreat into their shells out of a desire to combat the bullying issue.
While working as a project organizer, Stuart actively and enthusiastically communicated with participants, and the conference is likely to have a positive impact
on future efforts to reduce young New Zealanders’ engagement in and exposure toviolent behavior. It was also an excellent example of how an SLI project can beshaped to incorporate both research and networking elements and to address important social issues in a developed country.
Thanks to the SLI award, moreover, Stuart was able to raise 1,200 NZ dollars,
which will be donated to the Mental Health Foundation of New Zealand.
The Tokyo Foundation wishes her much success in all her future initiatives.

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