The Summary of Terminal Evaluation
Date: 1 August 2010
Issued by : JICA Rural Development Department
1. Outline of the ProjectCountry:

Kyrgyz Republic

Project Name :The Project for the Support for the Dissemination of
Biogas Technology in the Kyrgyz Republic

Sector:Agriculture Development

Division in
Charge:Paddy Field Based Area Group,
Rural Development Department

C/P Agency:

State Department of
Total Cost (at the time of Evaluation study) :Chemicalization and Plants
246 million Yen
Protection, Ministry of Agriculture(*Name of the Ministry changed in2009.)

Period of
Cooperation:(R/D):
19 Dec 2007 – 18 Dec 2010

Cooperation Scheme: Technical Cooperation Project

Cooperating Agencies of Japanese Side:
Obihiro University of Agriculture and Veterinary
Medicine

1-1 Background of the Project
After independence and collapse of the Soviet Union, The Kyrgyz Republic was among other post-soviet
facing great economic and social difficulties. It was especially acute in agriculture. Economic decline andreorganization left considerable part of rural population without job. Former "kolkhozes" and "sovkhozes"(collective and state farms) were destroyed, and new mechanism of doing agriculture businesses had notbeen created.
In the structure of gross national product of the Kyrgyz Republic, agriculture occupies 25.8% (2008). Thus,
the agriculture of the Kyrgyz Republic faces considerable difficulties such as; the growing prices for energy
and chemical fertilizer brought low fertility of the land, poverty of agricultural population, and deteriorationof condition of the environment.
To counter these agricultural problems, development and wide use of biogas system (BGS) in practice is
expected to improve the conditions of agricultural population.
Under the background mentioned above, a proposal for Technical Cooperation was forwarded to theGovernment of Japan from the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic in September 2007.
JICA as an implementation agency of Japanese Official Development Assistance approved the Project, andMinistry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry was recognized as the main counterpart
of JICA at the same time. Both sides signed the Record of Discussions in December 2007 in order to initiate
the Technical Cooperation Project called "The Project for the Support for the Dissemination of Biogas
Technologies in the Kyrgyz Republic (hereinafter referred to as "the Project")".
1-2 Project Overview(1) Overall Goal
The biogas technologies are disseminated in rural areas and the living condition of the rural people
adopting these technologies is improved.

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(2) Project Purpose
The extension system of the improved biogas technologies is established.
(3) Outputs
1) The appropriate biogas technologies are developed.
2) The capacity of personnel related to extension of the biogas technologies is strengthened.
3)	The existing financial institutions and regulations related to extension of the biogas technologies arereviewed.
4)	The coordination among the relevant organizations for extension of the biogas technologies is
improved.
5) The biogas technologies are widely known.
(4) Inputs (As of the end of July 2010)
Japanese side :Long-term Experts
4 persons60.30MM
Short-term Experts

11 persons

Training in Japan

11 persons(Unit: Kyrgyz Som (KGS))
Local Operation Cost
37 million Yen(19,145,000 KGS)
Machinery & Equipment
8 million Yen(US$ 92,000)

37.60MM

1KGS=1.915Japanese Yen as of July 2010), 1 US $=87.70 Yen
Kyrgyz side :Counterpart Personnel
Facility(Office space for experts,
utility cost included)

9 persons2 office spaces

Local Cost
0 KGS
1 in State Department of Chemicalization and Plants
Protection, and 1 in Agro-industrial Development andNature Management Division of Issyk-Kul State

2. Terminal Evaluation Team

Members of
Evaluation Team:Mr. Satoru Hagiwara

Leader

Deputy Director General
Rural Development Department
JICA HQ

Dr. Kazutaka Umetsu

BiogasTechnology/
Extension

Professor
Graduate School of Obihiro University ofAgriculture and Veterinary Medicine

Ms. Noriko Ishibashi

Evaluation
Analysis

Consultant
IC Net Limited

Mr. Shohei Kashiwagi Planning
Paddy Field Based Farming Area Division 2
Management Paddy Field Farming Group
Rural Development Department, JICA HQ
Period of Evaluation: 10 - 31 July 2010

Type of Evaluation: Terminal Evaluation

3. Results of Evaluation
3-1 Achievement of the Project(1) Project Purposex

The Project Purpose "the extension system of the improved biogas technologies is established" is notachieved yet. The prospect of achieving the Project Purpose is low. Amongst of all indicators, the last
one on the establishment of an extension system of biogas technologies would not be fulfilled by theend of the Project term.
For the 1st indicator, 3 new small-sized biogas plant models of 10 to 25 cubic meters that are targeting
livestock farmers become operational. Technical improvements are close to a completion. The last
proof necessary is to verify its severe winter season operations for 6 biogas plants.
Secondly, the review of the financial institutions and regulations were conducted by a short-term expert
in 2010, but it is limited to an analysis. Favorable conditions are yet to be created where small scale
livestock farmers can make a loan for the installation of biogas facilities.
For the last indicator, the extension system of the improved biogas technologies which the Project has
intended to set up is not established partly due to the absence of technical level C/P for extension andto weak public-private coordination.
(2) Overall Goal
Although it is hard to judge the achievement level of Overall Goal due to the lack of quantitative
indicator, the achievement level of this indicator is judged appropriate at the time of Terminal
Evaluation in July 2010.
For the 1st indicator of Overall Goal, 2 individual visitors of the pilot plants, so-called the biogas plant
No.3 in Issyk-kul State and No.2 in Chui State respectively, replicated it and constructed similar steel
type plants of the same digester size. There are projects requesting assistance on biogas technologies to
the Project.
For the 2nd indicator, it is too early to judge the level of livelihood improvement of those who installed
the improved models of biogas plants which are developed because only a few cases of replications
were found so far.
(3) Outputs
1) Output 1
Output 1 is not yet achieved at the time of Terminal Evaluation. Output 1 would be achieved if
the Project term would be extended by the end of winter season, which allows the proof of severe
winter season operations of 6 pilot biogas plants.
・	As is described in 3-1 (1), technical improvement of small scale biogas plants for livestock
farmers are close to a completion. It needs operational verification in severe winter season.
・	User’s manual for operation and maintenance is mostly ready. This manual includes biogas
utilization and is under translation work.
・	User’s manual on liquid fertilizer is not yet ready, but is expected to be completed as soon
as a result of the currently on-going experiment by Kyrgyz Agrarian University would besummarized. The manual covering operational and maintenance of biogas as well as utilizationof biogas and liquid fertilizer would be ready in December 2010, just before the end of the
Project.
2) Output 2
Output 2 is not yet achieved and the prospect of achieving this Output is low.
・	Regarding the 1st indicator about the number of extension staff, none of technical level C/P isxiallocated nor identified, but administrative ones. During the Project period, the Project had only
5 project-hired technicians working for construction and maintenance. (Most of State level C/Ps
in the list of counterpart personnel are nominal only.)･	Since there was no extension staff working in this Project, no technical training has been
conducted in this Project for the 2nd indicator, nor training materials were prepared for the 3rd
indicator.
3) Output 3
The achievement of the Output 3 is on a half way.
･	Although a short-term expert of finance sector studied and analyzed the possible access tothe preferential loan scheme for livestock farmers, it was limited to an analysis of financial
feasibility.
4) Output 4
Output 4 is not achieved and would not be achieved by the end of the Project term. There is little
field level collaboration found among organizations working on biogas technologies.
･	Regarding the number of joint meetings written in the 1st indicator, the Project invited
public and private organizations when organized seminars. However it was mostly limited to
information exchange and was not for the purpose of extension either.
･	Preparation of linkage/network guideline was not possible due to the absence of collaboration
among private and public organizations.
5) Output 5
Although it is hard to judge the achievement level due to the lack of quantitative indicators, it
is assessed that Output 5 is almost achieved and is to be achieved by the end of Project. Apartfrom the planned activities, the Project proactively worked on public relations activities whereby
contributed to the widespread of biogas technologies and to higher presence of the Project.
･	Total of 6 seminars for users and other interested parties were organized with 191 participants.
･	2 kinds of leaflets and 1 video were produced and distributed. Study tour was organized twice,
but an opening ceremony of a biogas plant inviting press is pending due to a recent turmoil.
3-2 Summary of Evaluation(1) RelevanceFor the following reasons, the project is judged to be of high relevance.
・	This Project is consistent with National Energy Programme of the Kyrgyz Republic 2008-2010
and Fuel Energy Complex Development until 2025, which was in approval process of the former
government. It is also along with the Law on Renewable Energy Sources which was signed by theformer President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in January 2010.
・	Under JICA’s Rolling Plan for the Kyrgyz Republic 2009-2013, the assistance to this project isreferred in the Rural Development Program under Agriculture Development/Local Development
issue.
・	As a country giving particular focus upon the production of renewable energy sources, Japan has
rich human resources of researchers and private sectors.
(2) Effectiveness
Effectiveness of the Project is judged to be moderate.

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・	The prospect of achieving the Project Purpose is low. 2 out of 3 indicators were achieved or likely tobe achieved by the end of the Project, but the last indicator regarding the establishment of extension
system for biogas technologies would not be materialized by December 2010.
・	As is written in 3-1 (1), 3 new small-sized biogas plant models of 10 to 25 cubic meters that are
targeting livestock farmers are operational. Although technical improvement of biogas plants is
close to a completion, the extension system of the improved biogas technologies which the Project
has intended to set up is not established.
・	Obstructing factors in achieving the Project Purpose are such as the absence of public extension
system neither in Ministry of Agriculture nor in Ministry of Energy as well as the weakness of
public/private collaboration for the part of extension in the field level, and the absence of technicallevel C/Ps who are supposed to be the target of technical transfer and so on. Furthermore, the recent
political turmoil adversely affected the progress of the activities.
(3) Efficiency
This efficiency of this Project is mixed: the achievement levels of some Outputs are high while others
are low.
・	For Output 1 and 5, expected outputs were mostly produced. Although the inputs of short-term
Experts in the first 2 years were slow, those inputs were smoothly transferred into outputs primarilyin Output 1. Also the Project’s efforts on public relations (Output 5) were successful in attracting
attentions of general public. Meanwhile, formulation of extension system related activities saw little
success, coming to an end of the Project without achieving expected Outputs. Few public-private
collaborations were found for the extension of biogas technologies (Output 4).
・	The inputs of short-term Experts were mostly on construction and technical improvements of biogas
plants (Output 1). Kyrgyz side provided no local cost for the Project operations, which was covered
by JICA side as a whole. Kyrgyz side’s inputs are limited to in-kind ones.
(4) Impact
The impact of this Project is relatively high.
2 cases of replication of small-scale and steel type biogas plants, digester size 10 and 25 cubic metersrespectively, were identified so far. The positive impact is observed in a relatively short period of time
given the fact that the construction of the plant No.3 completed in Feb 2009.
・	For the indicators of Overall Goal, there are 2 cases of replication by 2 individuals as was describedearlier. But it is too early to see any improvement of living conditions of farm household even intarget areas.
・	Positive impact observed beside the Overall Goal includes:- Effect on Climate ChangeThis Project also contributed to Climate Change although marginal. Professor Umetsu’s
provisional calculation tells an estimated annual reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission fromthe 10 pilot plants is 105.5t-CO2, in case all of those plants would have operated in full capacity.
- Possible increase in agricultural production by using liquid fertilizer
Although any scientific proof is yet to be available, 8 out of 9 owners who utilized liquid fertilizer
saw the better growth in terms of height, speed of growth, number and color of leaves and so on.
・ No negative social impact observed so far.

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(5) Sustainability
The Team concluded that sustainability of the institutional, financial and technical aspect is low.
・	Policy Aspect: Promotion of biogas was along with ‘National Energy Programme of the Kyrgyz
Republic 2008-2010 and Fuel Energy Complex Development until 2025’ under Ministry ofEnergy, which was under approval process of the former government of Kyrgyz Republic. Biogas
is expected to be listed even under the new government policies including the one in Ministry ofAgriculture.
・	Institutional and Technical Aspect: Institutional sustainability in carrying out the Project activities
is weak. At the administrative level, Ministry of Agriculture promised to allocate a permanent staff
as a contact person after the Project termination. There is no permanent technical C/Ps identified totake over the technical support provided by the Project.
・	Financial Aspect: There has been no counterpart funding provided by the C/P organization neither
in central nor in State level. Expansion of biogas plants construction by Kyrgyz side’s own budget
has few possibilities.
3-3 Facilitating / Obstructing Factors
Obstructing Factors concerning Project structure
Obstructing factors in achieving the Project Purpose are such as the absence of public extension system
neither in Ministry of Agriculture nor in Ministry of Energy, the absence of technical level C/Ps who is
supposed to be the target of technical transfer, weakness of public/private collaboration for the part ofextension in the field level, and so on. Furthermore, the recent political turmoil adversely affected theprogress of the activities.
3-4 Conclusion
The Project Purpose has not yet been achieved at a satisfactory level in specific areas. Nonetheless,positive impact in relation to Overall Goal has been observed: 2 cases of replication of the biogas plantmodels by the visitors of pilot plants. The replication has already started during the Project period
without going through an extension system that the Project originally intended to formulate. It is worth
noting that the 2 cases of replication reflect a sign of expansion of the Project’s effects, which is apositive impact.
Major achievements are as follows:(1) Development of the improved biogas plants; (2) Increase the awareness of people about biogas
technology and successful public relations on biogas facilities; and (3) Indication of scaling up of newly
developed biogas plants
3-5 Recommendations(1) Completion of activities planned in PDM before termination of the Project
By the end of the Project, project should continue and complete following activities excluding activity 3-3(To conduct necessary revisions of the existing financial institutions and regulations) and 4-7 (To develop
guideline on linkage/networking of the organizations concerned based on the review of the pilot projects)
which are impossible to conduct under the present condition of Kyrgyz side.
・ To hold open forum for the public relations on the pilot project.
・ To completion of ‘User’s manual’ comprehensively covering ‘operation and maintenance of biogas

xivplant’, ‘utilization of biogas and liquid fertilizer produced by biogas plant’, ‘extension materials’.
・ To conduct terminal survey in order to assess its terminal effect of 10 pilot plants.
・ To conduct ‘press tour / study tour’ to the pilot project(2) Identification of an exclusive body to promote biogas program by the initiative of Ministry ofAgriculture
In order to secure the sustainability of the Project outcome, and scaling up the individual cases ofreplication, it is recommended to organize an exclusive body such as inter-agency biogas promotion
task group among concerned Departments, Agencies, Universities and NGOs, or internal task group byinitiative of Ministry of Agriculture.
(3) Recognition of biogas program as a part of the Ministry’s policies and strategies
Biogas program should be officially recognized as a part of the Ministry of Agriculture’s policy, andbiogas program needs to align with the new Ministry’s mandate also in order to clarify the department
and/or the organization fully responsible to promote biogas technologies.
i. Utilization of pilot plants of the Projectii. Registration of biogas plant as agricultural facility under the Ministryiii. Promotion of the research on liquid fertilizer and spreaders of liquid fertilizer
iv. Identification of potential loan scheme for ordinary farmers to install biogas facilities(4) Extension of the Project period to the end of the next winter season
In order to monitor and confirm the stable generation of gas from the plants during the freezing winterseason, it is recommended to extend the Project period covering next winter season.
3-6 Lessons Learned
Identification of possible organizations being responsible for taking technical transfer and measures todiffuse such technologies is essential for technical cooperation projects.
It is essential to clarify the target group to a certain level: who takes technical transfer from JICA Experts
and who is responsible for extending the technology to other groups and individuals.

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