Transportation Demand Model (TDM)

Osamu AKASHI (Kyoto University)

AIM Training Workshop
2006.10.16-20

Table of Contents• Why TDM is needed• Basic idea of TDM• Example of Application

Why TDM is needed• Future energy service demand is needed in Enduse model andEnergy snapshot tool as input• TDM simulates transportation demand (pass-km, ton-km)
which is used as energy service demand in Enduse and Energy
snapshot tool
• Transportation demand is affected by change of population,
people’s travel behavior and industrial structure.
• It is important to consider those factors because they will bechange in long-term future.
• TDM simulates transportation demand of each transportmode associated with changes of those factor

General Description
Passenger Transportation Demand Module (TDM_P)•Input:•Input:Population
Population
Some
Somecoefficientscoefficientswhich
whichrepresent
representpeople’s
people’sbehavior
behavior•Output:•Output:Passenger
Passengertransportationtransportationdemand
demandby
bymodemode(passenger-km)(passenger-km)

Freight Transportation Demand Module (TDM_F)•Input:•Input:AmountAmountof
ofproduction
productionandandimportimportby
byproduct
productSomeSomecoefficientscoefficientswhich
whichrepresent
representfreightfreighttransporttransport
characteristics
characteristics•Output:•Output:Freight
Freighttransportationtransportationdemand
demandby
bymodemode (tonne-km)(tonne-km)

Passenger transportation Demand
module (TDM_P)

Basic idea of TDM_P• Using the concept of “trip” to describe
people’s travel behavior
What is “trip”
The basic unit of travel, a trip, is defined as a one-way
course of travel having a single main purpose.

Basic idea of TDM_P
Population(person)[Attribute, Area]

Trip Generation Coefficient(trips/person)[Attribute, Day, Area, Objective]

Modal Share(%)[Attribute, Day, Area, Mode, Objective]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Attribute, Day, Area, Mode, Objective]

Net transportation demand(pass-km)[Mode]

Simplified formula:
Transportation demand (pass-km) [mode] =Population (person)
×Trip Generation Coeff. (trips/person)
×Modal Share (%) [mode]
×Average Trip Distance (km/trip) [mode](Unit) [ Index ]：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables(Unit)[ Indices ]Application of TDM_P to Japan

Definition of the terms●Intra-regional Transport:Trip within the daily living area
[Purposes]●Inter-regional Transport:Trip over the daily living area
[Purpose]･Commercial (Business trip)･Sightseeing (Leisure)･Private (Homecoming)*Note:Commuting is excluded･Commute (to work)･Commute (to School)･Return (to home)･Commercial･Private (ex. shopping)
Si hi

&L i

[Mode]･Aviation (Airplane)･Railways (Train)･Maritime (Ship)･Buses･Passenger cars

Calculation Flow of TDM_P Japan
Macro Economic Model
Population Dynamic Model

Population[Attribute, Area]
Employment[Attribute]
License[Attribute]
Population[Attribute, Area]

Population[Attribute]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Day, Area, Objective]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Day, Area, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Day, Area, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Mode]
Intra-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Inter-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Net-Total
Conversion ratio
Passenger Transportation[Persons-km]

Intra-regional Transportation：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables

Inter-regional Transportation

Data Sources of TDM_P Japan
DataSourcea) License rate

Past record: National Police Agency
Future estimation: MLITb) Employment rate

Past record: Statistics Bureauc) Inter*/Intra** regional
Transportation Coef.

*MLIT PT survey data:90, 95, 00(Arterious Transportation Survey)>Trip Generation>Modal Share>Avr. Trip distance**MLIT PT survey data:87, 92, 99(National Urban PT Survey)d)Net-Total Conversion ratio

Estimated from Total demand (e) andPT data summatione)Total Demand

Domestic Transportation Statistics
Handbook (MLIT)

MLIT: Ministry of Land Infrastructure and TransportExample of simulation result(Total transportation demand by mode: mil.pass-km)
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000

Walk&Bike
Railway
Maritime
Pass. Car
Aviation
Buses

800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Freight transportation Demandmodule (TDM_F)

Basic idea of TDM_F
Production and import(USD)[Product]

Simplified formula:

Transport generation ratio(tonne/USD)[Product]Transportation demand (tonne-km) [mode] =Production and Import (USD)×Transport Generation Coeff. (tonne/USD)
×Modal Share (%) [mode]
×Average Trip Distance (km/tonne) [mode](Unit) [ Index ]Modal share (%)[Product, Mode]

Average transport distance(km/tonne)[Product, Mode]

Transportation demand[tonne-km][Mode]：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables(unit)[ Indices ]Application of TDM_F to Japan

Indices of TDM_F Japan[Product][Mode]

・Agricultural product･Small freight vehicle

・Minerals･Large freight vehicle

・Metals and Machinery･ ･ Railway

・Chemicals･Maritime・Light-industry products･Aviation

・Miscellaneous industry products
・Specialty products

Calculation Flow of TDM_F Japan
CGE model“Surface transport”
Production and import[USD](product)“Air transport”
Production and import ofhigh-value added products[USD]

Transport generation ratio[tonne/USD](product)

Modal share [%](product, mode)

Average transport distance(km/tonne)[Product, Mode]

Transportation demand[tonne-km](product, mode)

Transportation demand[tonne-km]

Transportation demand[tonne-km](mode)：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables

Data Sources of TDM_F Japan
DataSourcea) Production and Importby product (USD)

・Annual report on national accountsb) Transportation volume bymode and product (tonne)

・Domestic transportation statistics
handbook (MLIT)c) Transportation volume by・Domestic transportation statistics
mode and product (tonne-km)
handbook (MLIT)
・Road traffic census

Example of simulation result(Transportation volume by product: mil.tonne-km)

700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1980

Small Freight Vehicle
RailwayAviation

1990

2000

2050

Large Freight Vehicle
Maritime

Thank you for your attention !!