AIM models in Asia
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html
Junichi FUJINO
December 5th 2015, Japan Pavilion, COP21@Paris
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Toshihiko Masui, Junichi Fujino, Kei Gomi and Tran Thanh Tu
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Shuzo Nishioka and Tomoko Ishikawa
Kyoto University (KU)
Yuzuru Matsuoka and Nguyen Thai Hoa
E-konzal
Tomoki Ehara and Yuki Ochi
Mizuho Information & Research Institute (MHIR)
Go Hibino, Kazutaka Oka, Kazuya Fujiwara and Aya Naito
Drawn by Mr. Hajime Sakai
1AIM: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model• Area• Base year
• Target year
• Covered sectors• Actors/Players• LCS target

Setting framework• Demography• Lifestyle
Qualification of Socio• Economy
economic Vision• Transport• Building- Technology Quantification
Bottom-up
of Socio- • modelResource
economic
VisionsandQuantifications of more than 400 efficiency
including
options
GHG emission
parameters:• Energy strategy• Population• Power supply• Final demand
Try and error to keep
- Economic• Transport parameters Top-down
consistency and unity model
among SocioEnergy service
Evaluation of Scenarios /Economic
policies and impact
to •evaluate
economic
demand generation
measures:
LCD targets

AIM is Simulation Model

AIM is Human Network- Start international collaboration
since 1994 and we have the 21stannual int.ws in Nov 2015, Tsukuba- Researchers and policy-makers• Energy device share• Transportation system
in China, India, Korea, Thailand,• Power supply•
EnergyservicedemandAnalysis of Alternative
assumptions
generation for- Detailed
sector-wise
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam,
LCD scenarios and model• Energy device sharemeasures• Power supply options
population, residential,
transport,
Nepal, Cambodia, Bangladesh,• Renewable energy•etc
Carbon sink
Industry, energy
Taiwan, Australia, NZ, USA, EU,
Design LCDsupply,
Actions• etc.
and Roadmaps frometc and Japan.
the analysis
22The 21st AIM
International WS
Nov 13-15,
2015, Tsukuba

The 20th AIM
International WS

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AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)
Chronology and Japanese CC Policy
AIM mitigation scenarios

Japanese PM’s Decision

1989

AIM start

1997

15% cut in 2010

6% cut in 2010 by PM Hashimoto

2007

70% cut in 2050

Cool Earth 50 by PM Abe

2008

12 actions towards LCS

2009

7/15/25 % cut in 2020

60-80% cut in 2050 by PM Fukuda
8% cut in 2020 by PM Aso
25% cut in 2020 by PM Hatoyama

2011
Now

East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Accident
INDCs, 2030 target
26% cut in 2030 by PM Abe

AIM members support IPCC as CLAs, LAs, and REs since the FAR.
AIM provides RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). 4

Analysis by AIM/Enduse in Japan
Final energy consumption in 2030 (low growth case)

400

413
387

359

369

350

328

309

300

298

250

Trans
port

Com
merci
al

200
150

100

Resid
ential50'90 '05 '10

5

2030

High

Medium

Low

0
Fixed

Final Energy Consumption（Million kL of Oil Equivalent）

450

・EV/HV: 70 to 90% of new car sales
・About 40% improvement of freight vehicle
efficiency
・Eco-driving in practice : 15 to 40%(passenger),
25 to 55%(freight)

・Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use
advanced insulation and energy saving
designs/features
・High-efficiency water heater: 75 to 90% inhouseholds, 40 to 90% in commercial building・Home/Building energy management system
・PV power: 28 Mil. kW in households, 38 to 73
Mil. kW in commercial building
・Commercialization and popularization of best-

Indust available-technology
ry ・Fuel conversion to natural gases

International Cooperation toward
Low Carbon Society
Contribute to IPCC AR5 processdeveloping SSPs (Socio-Economic
Scenarios) and RCPs
(Representative Concentration
Pathways) using AIM

Adopted as Iskandar
Malaysia Low Carbon
Society Blueprint
by Prime Minister,and move forward

Asian Low Carbon Scenarios
developed by simulation models:AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

6Overall Activity of Country Level
Low Carbon Society Research Project7

Low Carbon Society Research (LCSR) Project•••

The following diagram shows the overall structure of LCSR project which is funded by
Ministry of the Environment Japan (MoEJ).
AIM team has collaborated with researchers to develop national/city-level LCS plans
and roadmaps (1), and communicated policy makers to make actual policy (2).
AIM team is also trying to collaborate researchers and policy makers to design
practical programs and implementation arrangement for mitigation actions (3).

(1)
Support for LCS Research &Develop LCS plans
NIES
KU
IGES
E-konzal
MHIR

AIM

Support for Program
Design & Implementation(3)

ExSS, Enduse

Models AFOLU, …

Researchers
Enhance Communication(2)
Encourage Policy Makers

Policy Makers

Target Region
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Cambodia
Vietnam
HCMC
Da Nang
Hai PhongKnowledgeof PDCA
Supported by MoEJ

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LCS Scenarios and Plans in Asian Countries (1/2)••

Quantitative scenario approach with AIM has been applied to more than 20 regionsin Asia, and LCS plans and roadmaps are developed for each region.
In FY 2015 (Apr. 2015 – Mar. 2016), main target regions for development of LCS plans
are Thailand, Indonesia and cities in Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh, Hai Phong and Da Nang).
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index_j.html

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LCS Scenarios and Plans in Asian Countries (2/2)•

The following table shows the outcome of the LCSR project in each country so far
and its contribution on climate change policy.
Target Region

Description

Indonesia• C/P researchers : Prof. Rizaldi (IPB), Dr. Ucok and Dr. Retno (ITB)• National scale LCS policy including not only energy sector but also agriculture, land use change, etc. has developed. They are evaluating existingclimate change action plans, i.e. RAN GRK and INDC by AIM.

Thailand• C/P researchers : Prof. Bundit (SIIT-TU) and Prof. Shrestha (AITM)• The team developed LC Roadmap towards 2050 and performed intensive
dialogues with policy makers. The outcomes of their LCS study contribute to
the process for investigation of Thailand NAMAs and INDC.

Vietnam• C/P researchers : Dr. Lam (ISPONRE)• LCS scenario towards 2030 including sectors of waste, agriculture and land
use as well as energy was developed.

Nepal• C/P researchers : Prof. Ram Shrestha (AITM)• LCS study towards 2050 including agricultural sector as well as energy sector.

Cambodia• C/P researchers : Dr. Mao (MoEC)• LCS study towards 2050 was completed and published.

Malaysia• C/P researchers : Prof. Ho (UTM)• Main focus of current activity is implementation of LCS policy.

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Country Case Studies

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LCS Scenario in Indonesia (1/3)• Indonesia energy team is involved in the development of ExSS, Enduse and
CGE models.
• The team is evaluating existing national climate change action plans, i.e.
RAN GRK and INDC by those models.
The 29% GHG emissions reduction target are planned to be achieved
with three different focus-sectors. The following figures are represented
in “Dokumen Pendukung Penyusunan INDC Indonesia (Draft 11.08.15)“

INDONESIAINDC

Emission Reduction Target 2020-2030
Actions
Ambitious

Land-use based
policies scenario

Energy sector
policies scenario

Waste sector policies
scenario

Optimistic

Fair

750 MtonCO2 in 2030

627 MtonCO2 in 2030

596 MtonCO2 in 2030

393 MtonCO2 in 2030

258 MtonCO2 in 2030

222 MtonCO2 in 2030

45 MtonCO2 in 2030

36 MtonCO2 in 2030

30 MtonCO2 in 2030

*the reduction targets are then adjusted into the model, since the model base data are not recalibrated with Indonesia current conditions and development plans.
12

LCS Scenario in Indonesia (2/3)• The following figure shows the example of the analysis, which is extracted
from the brochure.

13

LCS Scenario in Indonesia (3/3)• The following figure shows the example of the analysis, which is extracted
from the brochure (case in power sector).

14

LCS Scenario in Thailand (1/3)• Thailand team is involved in the development process of Thailand official
NAMA and INDC.
• Analysis though AIM contributes very much for their investigation process.

15

LCS Scenario in Thailand (2/3)• The following figure shows the preconditions for developing Thailand’s INDC
(by utilizing AIM).

16

LCS Scenario in Thailand (3/3)• The following figure shows the example of the analysis for post 2020 LCS
analysis by Thai team.

17

LCS Scenario in Nepal (1/3)• Nepal team is trying to develop Nepal LCS scenario towards 2050 by utilizing
models of AFOLU and Enduse.
• One BaU and several scenarios (one no-regret and four types of emission tax
imposing cases) are developed.
• The following figure shows the GHG emission from from Agriculture andEnergy using Sectors in BAU.
80
67.3

Emission (MtCO2e)

70
57.6

60
50

44.6
38.0

40
30

28.5

Energy

23%

18%

72%

62%

2040

2050

Agriculture

15%

77%

20

10

28%

38%

85%

82%

2010

2020

0
2030

18

LCS Scenario in Nepal (2/3)• The following figure shows the GHG emission from agriculture during 20102050 in BAU case.
30
25
20
15

12.7%
31.7%
53.5%
65.8%

BAU
CT0
CT10
CT100

10

CT300
CT500

5
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

•
•
•
•

Emission increases from 4.3 MtCO2e in 2010 to 25.9 MtCO2e in 2050 in the BAU case.
Cumulative GHG reduction during 2010-2050 in CT0, CT10 would be 10.8%, 11.1%,
respectively
At CT100, CT300 and CT500 it would be 23.3%, 44.1% and 53.9% respectively
 low emission tax elasticity of GHG reduction.

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LCS Scenario in Nepal (3/3)• Mitigation options in each sector are also evaluated case by case. The
following figure shows the example in building sector.

Cost-effective mitigation options in residential and commercial sectors
Emission tax ($/tCO2e)
CT0

CT10

CT100

CT300

CT500

Biogas cooking

Electric cooker
Costeffective
options

EE LPG
stove
Solar water heater
Energy efficient bulbs (CFL & LED)
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Supplement information:
JCM (Joint Crediting Mechanism)

21

Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)••

Government of Japan has proposed JCM which aims to facilitate mitigation actions,and contributes to sustainable development in partner countries.
LCSR is one of the projects supported by MoEJ, which is expected to provide useful
information to enhance and diffuse JCM scheme to developing countries.

Japan

Partner Country• Leading LC technologies,
infrastructures, institutions, etc.
• Mitigation actions

JCM
projects

Managed by Joint Committee

Japanese
Contributions

CreditGHG
reductions
22

JCM Partner Countries•

Japan has established the JCM with 16 countries (Mongolia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Maldives, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Palau, Cambodia, Mexico,
Saudi Arabia, Chile, Myanmar and Thailand), and seven JCM projects is registered.

ThailandNov. 19, 2015
(Tokyo)23

Let’sdevelop
Sustainable
andLow Carbon
Societies!

fuji@nies.go.jp

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