Activities in Asia
-Latest research activity of Vietnam and AIM teamfor cooperation on future mitigation scenario developmentTomoki Hirayama*1, Yuki Ochi*2,
Tomoki Ehara*2 and Yuko motoki*1*1 Mizuho Research & Technologies, Ltd.
*2 E-konzal

October 1, 2021

Latest research activity of Vietnam and AIM teamfor cooperation on future mitigation scenario development（OCT. 2020～）
1. Final Goal
⚫ Identification of GHG emissions peak-out in Vietnam(When will the GHG emissions in Vietnam peak out?)⚫ Identification of policy measures for accelerating the GHG emissions peak-out and the
expected impacts(In order to accelerate the peak out of GHG emissions, which measures will be needed?
And what kind of positive and negative impacts will be generated?)
2. Expected outputs using AIM
1. Trajectory of energy demand (by energy type and by sector; primary energy and final
energy) [Enduse]
2. Trajectory of GHG emission (by gas type and by sector) [Enduse]
3. Trajectory of GHG mitigation costs (by sector) [Enduse]
4. Trajectory of macroeconomic impacts (GDP, final consumption, investment, ...) [CGE]1How to combine the tools in order to keep consistency and unity
among Socio-Economic policies and LCS actions

E-conzal
Extended snapshot
tool (ExSS)
Economic
analysisof LCS

NIES
AIM/CGE
Tool for keeping macroeconomic consistency
among supply, demand
and resource constraints,
and for estimating macroeconomic impacts.

An integrating tool of future
economic, industrial, social andenergy visions with mitigating
options.

Designing Snapshot of LCS visions
Quantification of
LCS scenarios

AIM/Enduse
Engineering A tool for people andand financial industry’s demand
analysis of LCS generation processes,

Assessment of
LCS actions

technology deployment,
and their impacts on
GHG emission.

Institutional andlogical design of LCS
Low Carbon/
Decarbonized
Development
Actions andRoadmaps

MHRT andNIES
2Outline: Process of this model activity

BaU

BaU

GHG emissions

1. Analysis of GHG emissions in
2050 using ExSS
2. Discussion of emission
pathways between present
and future
3. Assessment of emission
pathways using AIM/Enduse
4. Assessment of economic
impacts using AIM/CGE
5. Discussion of peak-out of
GHG emission
6. Revision of emission targets
in 2050 and/or pathways ifnecessary

NDCuc
CM1
NDCc
CM2

Present
emission
2014 2020

2030 2040

2050

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Activity schedule (Overall)
Tasks
Overall (PIC: NIES, MHIR, E-Konzal, IGES)
Data collection
Submission of AIM analyses to MONRE
ExSS (PIC: E-Konzal (Mr. Ochi) and IGES (Dr. Hoa))
Preliminary assessment of emissions in 2050
Assessment of contribution of measures
Revision of acceleration of peak-out by 2050
Assessment of contribution of measures (acceleration case)Enduse (PIC: NIES (Mr. Hibino) and Mizuho (Mr. Hirayama))
Simulation of BaU including calibration of parameters
Simulation of GHG peak-out using Enduse
Revision of Enduse model
Simulation of accelerated peak-out using Enduse
Revision of simulation of accelerated peak-out using Enduse
Revision of simulation of accelerated peak-out if necessary
CGE (PIC: NIES (Dr. Masui))2020 2021
Jan. Feb. Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug. Sep.

B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E

Simulation of BaU including calibration of parameters
Simulation of GHG peak- out using CGE
Revision of CGE model
Simulation of accelerated peak-out using CGE
Revision of simulation of accelerated peak-out using CGE
Revision of simulation of accelerated peak-out if necessary4About ExSS
◼ ExSS is a comprehensive estimation tool for socio-economic indicators and GHG
emissions designed for a backcasting study.
◼ Estimation by ExSS doesn’t take much time because it requires relatively fewer datacompared with AIM/Enduse or AIM/CGE.
◼ We illustrated quantitative snapshot of Vietnam in 2050, which includes socioeconomic conditions, energy demand and CO2 emissions.
Model Structure of ExSS
EconomyExport by goods
Investment
Government
expenditure
Import rate
Input coefficientmatrixPrivate consumption
Floor area per output
Energy service
demandper driving force
Energy end-use
device share
Energy end-use
device energy
efficiency
Dispersed power
generation (DPG)

IO
analysis

Output byindustry

Population

Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturingindustry

Commercial
building floorarea

Freighttransport
demandPopulation
in base year
Population
growth rate

Household size
Number ofhouseholdPassenger
transport
demandTrip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Freight generation
per output
Transport distance

Fuel share

Energy service demand

Transport

Energy efficiency
Final energy demand

Energy demand
to DPG

Energy efficiency in
DPG

Central power
generation (CPG)

Energy demand to CPG

Primary energy supply

EnergyExogenous variables
Parameters

Demography

Endogenous
variables

Modal share
Energy efficiency in
CPG
Fuel share in CPG
Transmission loss in
CPG
Own use in CPG
CO2 emission factor
Carbon sink

CO2 emission

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Schedule of Research (ExSS)◼ We collaborated with ISPONRE (The Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources andEnvironment) to collect data and information that is necessary for estimation by ExSS.
◼ A low carbon scenario for Vietnam was prepared in about 3 months using ExSS.
◼ We showed the result in the consultation meeting on March 2021 prior to othermodels so that MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) can understand theimage of low carbon future and necessary countermeasures to achieve it.
2020

2021

Oct

- Meeting between Vietnam (MONRE, IMHEN and ISPONRE) and Japan (MOEJ, Viet
Nam Embassy of Japan, JICA and NIES) about an inception report on this research

Nov- Internal meeting in AIM Japan team about the inception report and schedule- Preparation of the inception report

Dec- Data collection with ISPONRE

Jan- Internal Meeting in AIM team including ISPONRE to check the progress- Preparation of base year data

Feb

- Internal Meeting in AIM team including ISPONRE to check the progress- Assumption of countermeasures and estimation of CO2 emission in 2050
- Internal Meeting in AIM team including ISPONRE to check the preliminary result

Mar- Revision of estimation- Consultation Meeting between Vietnam and Japan to show the result and discuss for
improvement

6About AIM/Enduse◼ In order to conduct quantitative analysis of emission pathways in Vietnam, GHG
emissions up to 2050 were estimated using a sequential dynamic system technology
selection framework, AIM/Enduse.
◼ A sequential dynamic system is used to estimate the combination of technologies thatminimizes total costs (technical introduction, operation and maintenance costs) tomeet service demands imposed externally.

Model structure of AIM/Enduse

Example of technology dataset
EnergySectorEfficient power generation; coal and gas with
CCS; hydropower; wind power; solar PV;
geothermal; bioenergy; ocean; PHS; reinforcing
electricity interconnection; Hydrogen generation(electrolysis)

Transport Efficient train, maritime, and aviation; NGV; BEV,
Sector
PHEV; FCEV; biofuels; eco-driving• Stock dynamics• Service demand
Minimize Total Cost (TC) at year t1 
D ( j )  A ( j, l )  X ( l )TC= Initial investment cost ($)
S (l ) = S (l )  1 − + r (l ) − w(l )lT (l ) + Operating and maintenanceD ( j ) : Service demand quantity of service type j
S ( l ) : Stock of device l
cost ($/year)
A( j , l ) : Output of service j per unit operation of device l
S ( l ) : Stock of device l in the previous year
X (l ) : Operating quantity of device l+ Energy cost ($/year)T ( l ) : Life time of device l+ Payment for energy tax ($/year)r ( l ) : Recruited quantity of device lw ( l ) : Retired quantity of device l+ Payment for emission tax ($/year)

Building
SectorEnergy-efficient buildings (e.g. insulation); highefficiency equipment and appliances; electricheat pump water heaters; electrification forheating, cooling, and cooking; energymanagement systems

Industry
SectorEnergy-efficient industrial processes; CCS for ironmaking and cement lime; high-efficient boiler,
furnace, and motor; industrial heat pump;agricultural machines; bioenergy use
7Schedule of Research (Enduse)◼ Emission scenario calculations and assessment of peak-out GHG Emissions in Vietnam
were conducted using AIM/Enduse in about 7months.
◼ By holding consultation meetings many times, we could have opportunity to have a
discussion about our calculated result.
◼ Thanks to the shared basic data with Vietnam team (Dr. Bao and Dr. Tan, MONRE) ,estimation could be refined in line with the actual situation in Vietnam.
2021

Jan-Feb- Setting of socio-economic indicators which conform to ExSS assumptions- Setting of scenario for power supply which conform to Vietnam’s official plan (PDP8)Mar- Preliminary calculation of BAU(Technology-fixed) and countermeasure scenarios- Consultation On line Meeting between Vietnam and Japan to show the result anddiscuss for improvement

May- Revised calculation of BAU(Technology-fixed) and countermeasure scenarios- Consultation Meeting between Vietnam and Japan to show the result and discuss for
improvement

Jun-Jul- Revised calculation of 2 BAU(Technology-fixed) and 5 countermeasure scenarios- Consultation Meeting between Vietnam and Japan to show the result and discuss for
improvement

Aug- Data sharing with Vietnam team (Device costs and future assumptions of socioeconomic indicators)- Revised calculation of 2 BAU(Technology-fixed) and 5 countermeasure scenarios
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Suggestions for the next step
◼ From the view point of international research collaboration, after the pandemic of
Covid-19 we have more opportunities to have online discussions. For example,
holding monthly online meeting is effective for project members to understand theprogress of each part of the research.
◼ It is difficult to access the latest information of national strategy/plan from overseas.
The latest information is rarely translated in English. It is important to collaborate withlocal researchers to get the latest information.
◼ Assumptions of socio-economic activities (=service demand) critically influence on thecalculation for energy supply and demand as the driving forces. Well in advance thesedata should be shared among all the project members, including Vietnam side and AIMside.
◼ Physical and economical potentials for available renewable energy also give an impact
on the estimated emission pathways. Taking more time to discuss this agenda enables
us to describe more various decarbonized scenarios.
◼ Data sharing concerning technology information (cost, efficiency,…) is also needed formore accurate estimation for necessary additional investment.
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