© PRASHANTBY/FLICKR CREATIVE COMMONSCOFFEE IN THE
ST
21 CENTURY
Will Climate Change and Increased
Demand Lead to New Deforestation?

Timothy J Killeen, PhD
Grady Harper
April 14, 2016

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Acknowledgments.
Conservation+International+would+like+to+thank+the+Walmart+Foundation,+whose+support+made+this+research+possible.++From.the.authors.
The+ authors+ would+ like+ to+ express+ our+ appreciation+ to+ Christian+ Bunn,+ Peter+ Laderach+ and+ Olivia+
Ovalle+for+the+kind+assistance+with+the+spatial+mapping+data+used+in+our+studies,+which+is+described+
in+ detail+ in+ their+ article:++ A" bitter" cup:" climate" change" profile" of" global" production" of" Arabica" and"
Robusta"coffee"(Climatic"Change"129,"1=2"(2015):"89=101).++Similarly,+we+are+indebted+to+Matt+Hansen+
and+ his+ for+ the+ highHquality+ data+ made+ available+ by+ the+ global+ forest+ cover+ described+ in+ detail+ by+
their+ article:+ High=resolution" global" maps" of" 21st=century" forest" cover" change" (Science"342," no." 6160"(2013):" 850=853)."" We" thank+ Lee+ Hannah+ for+ putting+ us+ in+ contact+ with+ the+ right+ people+ and+ for+convincing+ us+ that+ it+ is+ acceptable+ to+ cheat+ in+ golf.+ + Finally,+ we+ salute+ the+ people+ of+ Finland+ for+consuming+more+coffee+than+any+other+nation+on+the+planet."

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Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%!

Contents'
Executive+Summary+...............................................................................................................................................................+3+
Background+...............................................................................................................................................................................+4+
Potential+Changes+in+Coffee+Supply+Chains+.................................................................................................................+4+
Component+A:++The+Dimensions+of+Future+Supply+and+Demand+........................................................................+6+
Model+Components+and+Outputs+................................................................................................................................+7+
Arabica+versus+Robusta+...............................................................................................................................................+13+
Component+B.+++The+Impact+of+Climate+Change+on+the+Geography+of+coffee+Production+and+the+Risk+
from+Forest+Conversion+....................................................................................................................................................+13+
Discussion+...............................................................................................................................................................................+20+
Conclusion+..............................................................................................................................................................................+22+
References+..............................................................................................................................................................................+37!

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[2]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'
Executive'Summary'Component.A'3'The'dimensions'of'future'supply'and'demand:+The+potential+dimensions+of+future+coffee+supply+chains+were+evaluated+using+supply+and+demand+models+based+on+differences+in+
consumption+(Low+vs.+High)+and+productivity+as+measured+by+yield+(Low+vs+High).++Projections+to+
2050+are+based+on+historical+trends+between+1990+and+2010+documented+by+the+International+Coffee+
Organization+(ICO).+High+consumption+(HC)+scenarios+differ+from+low+consumption+(LC)+scenarios+by+
assuming+that+coffee+consumption+increases+in+traditional+teaHdrinking+nations+of+East+and+South+
Asia,+as+well+as+in+SubHSaharan+Africa,+which+experiences+significant+demographic+growth+post+2030.++
Low+yield+(LY)+scenarios+differ+from+high+yield+(HY)+scenarios+by+assuming+that+elevated+temperatures+and+modified+precipitation+regimes+depress+yields+post+2030.+The+four+basic+model+
combinations+(LCLY,+LCHY,+HCLY,+HCHY)+are+evaluated+as+businessHasHusual+(BAU)+scenarios,+
because+they+are+based+on+the+assumption+that+supply+chains+will+favor+coffee+from+producers+from+
Brazil+and+Southeast+Asia.++Spatial+footprints+range+from+99,000+km2+(LCHYHBAU)+to+202,000+km2+(HCLYHBAU)+by+2050.++The+most+likely+scenario+(HCHYHBAU)+was+contrasted+with+an+alternative+
scenario+where+coffee+traders+implement+a+diversified+sourcing+strategy+(HCHYHDSS),+which+favors+coffee+growing+regions+in+East+Africa+and+Latin+America.++Due+to+lower+yields+in+these+regions,+the+projected+global+spatial+footprint+would+increase+from+160,000+km2+(HCHYHBAU)+to+210,000+km2+(HCHYHDSS).++
Component.B.7'The'impact'of'climate'change'on'the'geography'of'coffee'production'and'risk'
from'forest'conversion:++The+spatial+footprints+of+current+and+future+coffee+production+were+compared+to+the+total+geographic+area+with+the+bioclimatic+attributes+required+for+coffee+production.++Coffee+cultivation+“suitability+maps”+were+developed+in+a+geographic+information+system(GIS)+using+current+conditions+for+19+bioclimatic+attributes+from+the+WorldClim+database+and+a+similar+set+of+
information+derived+from+five+global+circulation+models+run+for+a+‘representative+concentration+
pathway’+considered+to+be+the+most+likely+climate+scenario+in+2050+(RCP6).++Currently,+the+spatial+
footprint+of+coffee+cultivation+(~100,000+km2)+is+less+than+2%+of+the+total+suitable+area+(5.9+million+km2)+with+bioclimatic+attributes+typical+of+current+coffee+plantation+landscapes.++By+2050,+the+
potential+demand+for+land+under+the+HCHYHDSS+scenario+approximately+doubles,+while+the+total+
geographic+area+suitable+for+coffee+cultivation+decreases+by+~50%.++Nonetheless,+the+surplus+of+
available+land+is+still+ten+times+greater+than+the+projected+cultivation+area+and,+consequently,+there+
should+be+no+geographic+constraint+on+future+coffee+production.+However,+a+comparison+of+the+suitability+maps+with+a+forest+cover+map+derived+from+satellite+images+in+2010+show+that+approximately+60%+of+the+area+suitable+for+coffee+production+is+covered+by+natural+forest,+a+
proportion+which+remains+approximately+the+same+in+2050.++Globally,+about+80%+of+suitable+Robusta+
landscapes+are+covered+by+natural+forest,+while+about+56%+of+Arabica+landscapes+are+forested.++Regionally,+the+risk+from+deforestation+linked+to+both+Arabica+and+Robusta+cultivation+is+highest+in+
the+Andes+and+Southeast+Asia,+while+Brazil+and+East+Africa+represent+potential+expansion+areas+with+
the+lowest+risk+of+deforestation.!
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[3]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%!

Background'
Coffee+is+produced+in+more+than+seventy+countries+on+five+continents.++There+are+two+major+
cultivated+species:++Arabica+(Coffea"arabica)+and+Robusta+(Coffea"canephora),+each+with+a+multitude+
of+varieties+adapted+to+a+broad+range+of+ecological+and+cultural+conditions.++Arabica+represents+70%+
of+global+production,+while+Robusta+represents+about+30%.++Traditionally,+Arabica+has+been+cultivated+as+“shade+coffee”+grown+at+higher+elevations,+while+Robusta+is+“sun+coffee”+cultivated+at+
lower+elevations.+There+are+exceptions,+however,+including+Arabica+varieties+grown+without+shade+at+
higher+elevations+and+with+shade+at+lower+elevations,+as+well+as+Robusta+varieties+grown+without+shade+at+higher+elevations.++Overall,+the+trend+is+for+eliminating+shade+from+production+strategies+in+order+to+maximize+yields.+++In+summary,+the+principal+bioclimatic+conditions+can+be+summarized+as+
follows:+++••Arabica+varieties+have+an+optimum+temperature+range+between+15°+and+24°+C;+rainfall+
between+1500+mm+and+2000+mm+per+annum+and+is+typically+cultivated+at+altitudes+between+
1000+and+2000+m+(a.s.l.).++
Robusta+varieties+grow+best+in+areas+with+a+mean+annual+temperature+between+22°+to+26°+C,+
requires+abundant+rainfall+(~2,000+mm+per+annum),+and+grows+best+at+altitudes+between+sea+
level+to+about+800+m+(a.s.l.).+++

This+environmental+plasticity+is+a+testament+to+the+biological+diversity+within+the+genus+Coffea"and+represents+an+insurance+policy+for+future+coffee+production+with+respect+to+climate+change.++In+spite+
of+this+inherent+resiliency,+the+global+coffee+supply+chain+will+suffer+disruption,+because+existing+varieties+of+both+species+are+narrowly+adapted+to+a+specific+set+of+environmental+conditions.++
Adaptation+will+follow+three+general+pathways:+++1. Change+cultural+practices+to+alleviate+the+environmental+stress+of+higher+temperature+(shade)+and+modified+precipitation+regimes+(irrigation)+
2. Manipulate+the+coffee+genome+to+make+varieties+more+resilient+to+high+temperatures+and+drier+(or+wetter)+climates+
3. Implement+integrated+pest+management+strategies+to+limit+the+environmental+stress+caused+by+insects+and+plant+pathogens.+++4. Migrate+production+to+areas+with+environmental+conditions+similar+to+current+production+
zones.+
The+global+trade+in+coffee+is+a+twoHstage+process.++Although+some+producing+countries+have+a+
tradition+of+roasting+coffee+beans,+approximately+90%+of+unroasted+(green)+beans+are+exported+from+tropical+countries+to+Europe+and+the+United+States+where+they+are+blended,+roasted+and+traded+again+
as+roasted+beans+or+ground+coffee.++About+10%+of+this+total+is+sold+as+soluble+(instant)+coffee.+++
The+market+for+roasted+coffee+at+the+consumer+level+is+segregated+into+two+categories+based+on+
aroma+and+taste:++Specialty+Coffees+(SC)+and+Mass+Market+(MM).++The+difference+in+quality+is+a+function+of+the+ecological+condition+of+its+cultivation+origin,+including+soils,+climate+&+altitude;+the+best+coffees+are+Arabicas+that+are+grown+under+shade+at+optimum+altitudes,+which+vary+according+to+latitude.++Harvesting+and+postHharvest+processing+practices+are+also+important:+washed+Arabica+are+very+high+quality,+but+dry+processing+technologies+can+produce+good+quality+beans.++Finally,+
management+of+the+roasting+and+blending+processes+are+essential+for+ensure+quality+control+and+are+
typically+done+at+the+end+of+the+supply+chain.+++Arabica+dominates+the+market+for+SC+blends,+while+
both+Arabica+and+Robusta+beans+are+used+to+create+MM+blends+and+instant+coffee.+

Potential'Changes'in'Coffee'Supply'Chains'
Robusta+varieties+may+become+more+important+as+a+source+of+both+HQ+and+MM+coffee,+because+that+species+is+genetically+adapted+to+the+conditions+of+warmer+lowland+landscapes.++Likewise,+cultural+

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Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

treatments,+like+the+use+of+shade+and+irrigation,+may+assist+growers+to+cultivate+Robusta+in+a+warmer+
and+drier+environment.++Because+it+is+a+lowland+crop,+its+potential+cultivation+is+not+particularly+
constrained+by+any+geographic+area,+at+least+within+the+tropics.++++
Vietnam+is+the+currently+the+largest+producer+of+Robusta+coffee+beans,+followed+by+Brazil+and+Indonesia.++Vietnam’s+dominance+is+relatively+recent,+having+grown+approximately+4Hfold+over+the+last+twenty+years.++Yields+are+high+and+are+linked+to+the+use+of+technology;+nonetheless,+the+sector+is+
dominated+by+smallholders,+who+continue+to+rely+on+manual+harvest+of+beans.+Producers+in+Indonesia,+particularly+in+lowland+Sumatra,+are+also+an+important+and+growing+source+of+Robusta+
beans.++In+Brazil,+Robusta+is+grown+in+the+North+and+on+smallholder+plantations+in+Rondônia.+
Supplies+of+Arabica+may+be+constrained+in+the+future,+because+that+species+is+more+narrowly+adapted+
to+the+cooler+temperatures+of+mountain+landscapes.+Migration+to+higher+altitudes+is+a+limited+option,+
because+the+spatial+area+available+for+cultivation+is+inversely+correlated+with+altitude.++Moreover,+this+spatial+constraint+will+be+augmented+by+resistance+on+the+part+of+society+to+allow+deforestation+in+
remnant+montane+forests+that+provide+ecosystem+services+via+watershed+protection.++Pressure+to+curtail+the+migration+of+Arabica+plantations+will+be+offset+by+increased+market+demand+
for+espresso+and+other+highHend+coffee+products,+which+is+forecast+to+grow+as+more+consumers+
become+familiar+with+the+superior+taste+of+SC+brands+and+denominations,+particularly+in+emerging+markets+such+as+China+and+India+that+are+traditionally+teaHconsuming+countries.++As+such,+the+
potential+increase+in+demand+for+Arabica+represents+an+extra+deforestation+threat+in+addition+to+
altitudinal+shifts+caused+by+a+warmer+climate.+
In+spite+of+the+challenges+that+face+traditional+producers+of+Arabica+in+many+parts+of+Central+America+
and+the+Andes,+the+world’s+largest+producer+of+Arabica+coffee,+Brazil,+has+transformed+its+production+
paradigm+over+the+last+two+decades.++LargeHscale+producers+have+developed+varieties+adapted+to+full+sun+with+significant+increases+in+productivity+on+a+per+hectare+basis+(yield),+while+developing+mechanical+harvesting+technologies+that+have+greatly+reduced+the+cost+of+harvesting+and+processing+beans.++Many+Colombia+producers+have+likewise+adopted+full+sun+Arabica+production.+++In+this+analysis,+models+are+used+to+envision+different+potential+configurations+of+coffee+supply+
chains+in+the+21st+Century.++In+Section+A,+we+evaluate+how+changes+in+demographics+and+behavior+
impact+the+demand+for+coffee+and+compare+scenarios+that+vary+with+respect+to+the+geographic+
distribution+of+supply+chains.++In+the+second+section,+we+evaluate+the+impact+of+global+warming+on+
the+geography+of+coffee+production+and+evaluate+whether+there+will+be+enough+coffeeHsuitable+land+available+to+meet+demand.++Finally,+we+compare+current+and+future+coffee+production+geographies+
with+natural+forest+cover+to+evaluate+the+potential+risk+of+forest+conversion+caused+by+the+expansion+
or+displacement+of+coffee+production.++++
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Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'

Component'A:''The'Dimensions'of'Future'Supply'and'Demand'
A+methodological+approach+was+devised+to+evaluate+the+potential+growth+of+coffee+supply+chains+in+
the+context+of+supply+and+demand,+which+will+be+determined+by+future+consumption+(High+vs.+Low)+
and+future+productivity+as+measured+by+yield+(High+vs.+Low).++The+four+scenarios+can+be+logically+organized+according+to+a+2+X+2+contingency+table.++
Models+Low+Consumption+(LC)+High+Consumption+(HC)+Low+Yield+(LY)+

LCLY+

HCLY+

High+Yield+(HY)+

LCHY+

HCHY+

++++
All+four+can+be+considered+BAU+scenarios+because+it+is+difficult+to+predict+consumption,+which+is+
dependent+upon+human+behavior+and+economic+growth+and+yield,+which+is+dependent+on+biology,+
technology+and+the+impact+of+climate+change.++Moreover,+the+four+future+scenarios+y+qualify+as+BAU+
scenarios+because+the+model+incorporates+no+changes+in+the+geographic+source+of+the+commodities+
being+evaluated.++In+essence,+the+four+BAU+models+provide+an+objective+visualization+of+the+range+of+
potential+supply+chain+that+may+prevail+in+the+future.++++
The+model+essentially+flows+through+the+following+stages:++
1. Document+historical+trends+for+consumption+and+production+at+the+global+scale,+stratified+for+
major+economic+and+cultural+regions.+
2. Apply+factors+that+project+consumption+per+capita+under+low+consumption+(LC)+and+high+consumption+(HC)+regimes+for+each+region.+
3. Incorporate+the+impact+of+future+demographic+growth+on+global+and+regional+consumption.+
4. Project+future+production+based+on+historical+patterns+and+projected+demand+forecast+by+the+
consumption+models.+
5. Develop+model+components+with+factors+that+forecast+future+supply+under+low+yield+(LY)+and+
high+yield+(HY)+production+systems.++
6. Project+potential+land+use+under+geographic+scenarios+that+vary+according+to+where+coffee+is+sourced.++.
Sources.of.Data:.
Data+on+production+and+trade+for+individual+countries+was+obtained+from+the+International+Coffee+
Organization1+and+converted+from+60+pound+(lb)+bags+to+metric+tons+for:+(1)+production,+(2)+exports,+(3)+reHexports,+and++(4)+imports,+as+well+as+(5)+nonHmember+exports+and+(6)+nonHmember+imports.+++Data+on+consumption+was+based+on+the+formula:++consumption"="(production"+"imports)"–"(exports"+"re=exports)""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1! International!Coffee!Organization:!!http://www.ico.org/trade_statistics.asp!!!

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Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Data+on+historical+yield+is+based+on+the+parameter+“area+harvested”+reported+to+(or+estimated+by)+
FAOSTAT,2+which+provides+similar+but+slightly+different+values+on+production;+consequently,+
national+yield+values+were+calculate+based+on+the+following+formula:++yield"="[(mean"yield"FAOSTAT)"+"(ICO"production"/FAOSTAT"area)]/2+
Regional+values+for+mean+yield+are+based+on+the+sum+of+production+values+divided+by+the+total+
regional+area+under+cultivation.+The+FAOSTAT+values+were+used+because+that+database+includes+
estimates+of+area+under+cultivation,+information+which+is+lacking+in+the+ICO+database.++Differences+
between+the+two+data+sources+are+reconciled+by+calculating+mean+yield+using+different+production+
values+divided+by+the+same+area+under+cultivation.+.
Time.Scale:.
Mean+values+were+calculated+for+five+year+intervals+and+reported+as:+1995+(1990H1994),+2000+(1995H1999),+2005+(2000H2004),+2010+(2005H2009),+and+2015+(2010H2014.++Projections+were+made+for+
each+country+at+10+year+intervals+until+2050.+.
Stratification:.
Both+historical+data+and+future+projections+were+summarized+for+the+major+geographic+regions+and+reorganized+into+the+regions+used+in+the+analysis:+
Consumption+
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

European+Union+
North+America+
Latin+America+
East+Asia+
Middle+East+&+North+Africa+
Eastern+Europe+
Southeast+Asia+
Sub+Saharan+Africa+
South+Asia+
Oceania+
Central+Asia+

Production+
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
+

Brazil++Southeast+Asia+
Central+America+
Andes+
East+Africa+
South+Asia+
Central+Africa+
West+Africa+
Caribbean+
Oceania+

Note:""Brazil"includes"Paraguay"and"the"Guianas,"Southeast"Asia"includes"Indonesia,"and"Central"America"includes"Mexico."'

Model'Components'and'Outputs''+
Consumption.per.capita+per+year+is+based+on+historical+trends+for+each+country+and+future+growth+
in+consumption+is+contingent+on+a+factor+based+on+whether+a+region+is+a+coffee+producer+or+not,+and+
the+historical+preference+for+tea+versus+coffee.++The+factors+are+weighted+so+that+emerging+and+developing+economies+enjoy+greater+growth+in+coffee+consumption,+while+advanced+economies+are+assumed+to+be+near+the+maximum+per+capita+consumption+(see+below).++""""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2! FAOSTAT:!!http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E!!

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Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Consumption"per"capita"
Mean#Consumption#Per#Capita#(Low#Model)

6.00#

Mean+Consumption+Per+Capita+(High+Model)

6.00

North+America

North#America
European#Union

5.00#

5.00

European+Union

4.00

Eastern+Europe

Oceania

Oceania
Eastern#Europe
Southeast#Asia

3.00#

Kg+/+year

Kg#/#yr

4.00#

Latin#America
Middle#East#&#North#Africa

2.00#

Latin+America
East+Asia

2.00

Sub#Saharan#Africa

Sub+Saharan+Africa
South+Asia

Central#Asia

1.00#

Southeast+Asia
3.00

1.00

Middle+East+&+North+Africa

East#Asia

Central+Asia

South#Asia

0.00#

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

+

2050

0.00

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

The+Low+Model+(LC)+component+projects+recent+historical+consumption+into+the+future,+according+to+the+following+rules:+••••

if+per+capita+consumption+>+than+4+kg/yr+then+growth+rates+fall+50%+each+decade+
if+per+capita+consumption+<+4+but+>+2+kg/yr+then+growth+rates+fall+by+50%+in+last+two+decades+
if+per+capita+consumption+<+2+but+>+1+kg/yr+then+growth+rates+are+reduced+by+50%+in+last+decade+
if+per+capita+consumption+<+1+kg/yr+then+growth+rates+are+constant+over+all+decades+•+

if+per+capita+consumption+<+1+kg/yr+then+growth+rates+are+doubled.++++The+High+Model+(HC)+component+projects+recent+historical+consumption+into+the+future,+according+to+the+same+rules+–+except:+
Essentially,+the+LC+scenario+assumes+that+tea+drinking+nations+and+Sub+Saharan+Africa+do+not+change+
habits,+while+HC+scenario+assumes+that+coffee+consumption+grows+at+significantly+higher+rates+in+tea+
drinking+nations+and+Sub+Saharan+Africa++
Global.Coffee.Consumption+is+calculated+by+multiplying+per+capita+consumption+by+the+projected+
population,+stratified+by+region+from+2010+to+2050,+as+portrayed+for+the+High+Consumption(HC)+example+below:+++

CoffeeFuture(Demand(is(also(dependent(on(population(growth(+
6.00

North+America

9Cental7Asia

8Europe7B non7EU

7

North7America

6

Europe7B EU

5Mideast7&7N7Africa

4Latin7America

3

SE7Asia2

East7Asia

1

X

0
2010

Millions

2000

2030

2040

European+ Union

4.00

Eastern+Europe

OceaniaSoutheast+Asia
3.00

Latin+America
East+Asia

2.00

Sub+Saharan+Africa
South+Asia
Middle+East+&+North+Africa
Central+Asia

0.00

2000

South7Asia

2010

2030

2040

2050

European"Union
North"America
Eastern"Europe
Latin"America
Middle" East"&"North"Africa
Sub"Saharan"Africa
Oceania
Central"AsiaSoutheast"AsiaSouth" Asia
East"Asia

20"
15"
10"
5"
0"
2000

2020

Global"Coffee"Consumption"(High)

25"

Tons

=

2020

5.00

1.00

Sub7Sahara7Africa
Region

Mean+Consumption+Per+Capita+(High+Model)

Oceania

Kg+/+year

Billions

Global7Population
10++
Consumption+in+the+EU+and+North+America+are+assumed+to+be+stable,+but+their+proportional+share+of+
global+consumption+is+radically+reduced+in+the+HC+scenario+due+to+expansion+in+demand+from+East+
Asia,+South+Asia+and+Sub+Saharan+Africa,+particularly+after+2030.++Demand+for+coffee+increases+by+
50%+under+the+LC+scenario+and+by+163%+under+the+HC+scenario.++The+difference+between+the+LC+and+
HC+models+is+almost+10+million+tons+per+year+by+2050+(12+Mt+versus+21+Mt);+for+comparison,+consumption+in+2015+is+projected+to+be+8.1+Mt.+

!

2010

2020

2030

[8]!

2040

2050

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%+
Projected+demand+is+particularly+large+after+2030+when+the+demographic+growth+in+Sub+Saharan+
Africa+and+increased+consumption+in+South+Asia+becomes+more+pronounced.++Coffee+consumption+
has+been+growing+at+double+digit+rates+in+China+and+India+over+the+last+decade,+so+the+HC+scenario+is+a+
realistic+scenario.++

North"America
European"Union
Eastern"Europe
Latin"America
Middle"East"&"North"Africa
Sub"Saharan"Africa
Oceania
Central"AsiaSoutheast"AsiaSouth"AsiaEast"Asia

20"
15"
10"
5"
0"
2000

Millions

Global"Coffee"Consumption"(Low)

25"

2010

2020

2030

2040

10"
5"
0"
2000

2010

2020

North&America

European&Union

Sub&Saharan&
AfricaSouth&Asia

North&America
Oceania

East&Asia

Latin&America

Southeast&Asia

Latin&America

Middle&East&&&
North&Africa

Eastern& Europe

+

+

2050

Eastern&Europe

Middle&East&&&
North&Africa

Southeast&Asia

Oceania

2040

Central& Asia

East&Asia

European&Union

2030

2050$(High$Consumption)

2050&(Low&Consumption&)
South&Asia

European"Union
North"America
Eastern"Europe
Latin"America
Middle"East"&"North"Africa
Sub"Saharan"Africa
Oceania
Central"AsiaSoutheast"AsiaSouth"AsiaEast"Asia

20"
15"

+

2050

Global"Coffee"Consumption"(High)

25"

Tons

Millions

Global"Coffee"Consumption"under"LC"and"HC"Scenarios"+

Sub&Saharan&
AfricaCentral&Asia+

Estimated.Global.Coffee.Production.was+derived+from+the+consumption+curves+to+generate+
modeled+estimates+of+annual+demand+that+would+be+matched+by+production,+which+was+allocated+among+geographic+regions+based+on+trends+established+over+the+last+20+years+(see+next+page).++As+
such,+both+the+LC+and+HC+production+scenarios+are+considered+BAU+scenarios,+because+both+project+current+market+share+into+the+future.++These+model+scenarios+assume+the+majority+of+coffee+supply+
will+originate+in+Brazil+(32%+of+global+market+share)+and+Southeast+Asia+(27%+of+global+market+
share).++
Growth+in+production+in+Vietnam+has+radically+changed+global+supply+chains+since+1990,+increasing+from+less+than+3%+to+more+than+17%+of+global+production.++Some+analysts+question+country’s+
capacity+to+increase+production+and+Vietnam+may+not+maintain+market+share+under+the+HC+scenario.++
However,+other+countries+in+Southeast+Asia+could+copy+the+Vietnamese+Robusta+production+model,+particularly+Indonesia+which+has+a+well+developed+coffee+sector+that+includes+both+Robusta+and+Arabica+growers.+++In+contrast,+the+Diversified+Sourcing+Scenarios+(see+bottom+tier)+show+how+supply+chains+would+
evolve+if+traders+organized+their+supply+chains+to+ensure+that+traditional+coffee+producers+in+other+regions+also+increase+market+share.++The+top+two+graphics+envision+different+levels+of+coffee+
consumption,+but+similar+sourcing+scenarios,+while+the+bottom+two+graphics+show+the+same+level+of+
global+production+but+allocate+that+production+to+different+geographies.+
"
"

!

[9]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

A"Comparison"of"Three"Different"Production"Scenarios"
Production:##Low#Consumption#(LC)##BAU#Scenario
Millions

25#

Andes
Brazil+20#

Central#America
Caribbean

15#

Tons

West#Africa
East#Africa

10#Central#Africa
Southeast#Asia

5#

South#Asia
!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Oceania+

Production:#High#Consumption#(HC)#! BAU#Scenario
Millions

25#

Andes
Brazil+20#

Central#America
Caribbean

15#
Tons

West#Africa
East#Africa

10#Central#Africa
Southeast#Asia

5#

South#Asia
!
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Oceania+

Millions

Production:#High#Consumption#(HC)#Diversified#Sourcing#Scenario#
Andes

25#

Brazil+20#

Central#America
Caribbean

15#

Tons

West#Africa
East#Africa

10#Central#Africa
Southeast#Asia

5#

South#Asia
Oceania

!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

Yield.Curves.are.based+on+historical+trends+of+mean+annual+increases+in+yield+documented+over+the+last+two+decades.++These+are+summarized+for+each+of+the+major+producing+regions+and+are+based+on+
the+total+regional+volume+of+coffee+produced+and+total+regional+area+under+cultivation.++
The+High+Yield+(HY)+model+assumes+that+agronomists+and+geneticists+will+be+able+maintain+historical+
rates+of+yield+growth+in+spite+of+any+potential+impacts+from+climate+change.++Brazil++and+Southeast+
Asia+were+assigned+annual+rates+of+2%+between+2010+and+2020+(versus+historical+rates+of+4+H+6%+
between+1990+and+2015).++However,+rates+of+growth+in+yield+are+reduced+by+50%+per+decade+afterwards+for+both+regions,+based+on+the+assumption+that+producers+are+approaching+the+maximum+
potential+yield+of+both+Robusta+(Vietnam)+and+Arabica+(Brazil).++All+other+regions+were+assigned+
annual+rates+of+growth+for+yield+growth+of+1%+between+2020+and+2050;+however,+no+region+or+
country+is+assumed+to+attain+the+yields+currently+enjoyed+by+Brazilian+and+Vietnamese+coffee+
farmers.++
The+Low+Yield+(LY)+model+is+based+on+the+same+historical+data+and+similar+rates+of+yield+
improvement+until+2030,+but+assumes+that+climate+change+negatively+impacts+yields+after+2030,+

!

[10]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%causing+yield+growth+to+stagnate+by+2040+and+decrease+by+1%+annually+between+2040+and+2050+(see+below)+
Yield"Curves"for"Coffee+
Yield$Curve$(Low$Model)

Yield$Curve$(High$Model)
Brazil+1,600$
1,400$
Kg$/$Hecatre

1,200$
1,000$Southeast$Asia

1,800$Southeast$Asia

South$Asia

1,600$South$Asia

Andes

1,400$

Central$America

Central$America

1,200$

Andes

1,000$

East$Africa

East$Africa

800$

Oceania600$

West$Africa
Central$Africa

200$

Central$Africa!

Oceania

400$

Caribbean

200$

800$
600$

West$Africa

400$

Brazil+2,000$

Kg$/$hecatre

1,800$

Caribbean

!

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+
+
.
Spatial.Footprints.are"calculated+by+multiplying+the+yield+curve+by+the+production+curve,+both+of+which+are+stratified+by+region+from+2010+to+2050,+as+portrayed+graphically+for+the+Low+Yield+(LY)+
and+the+High+Consumption(HC)+models+below:++
Coffee
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Production#based#High#Consumption#! BAU#Scenario
Southeast$Asia

Andes

1,200$

Kg$/$Hecatre

X

South$Asia

1,400$

Central$America

1,000$

East$Africa

800$

Oceania

600$

2010

2020

2030

2040

Millions

2000

Hectares=

Central#America
Caribbean
West#Africa
East#Africa
Central#Africa
Southeast#Asia

5#

South#Asia

Central$Africa!

Brazil+10#

Caribbean

200$

Andes

20#
15#

West$Africa

400$

25#

Tons

Brazil+1,600$

Millions

Yield$Curve$(Low$Model)
1,800$

!

2050

2010

2020

2030

Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint
HCHY#! BAU#Scenario

16#

2040

2050

Oceania

Andes

14#

Brazil+12#

Central#America
Caribbean

10#

West#Africa

8#

East#Africa

6#

Central#Africa

4#Southeast#Asia

2#

South#Asia

!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Oceania+

The+two+consumption+models+(LC+and+HC)+are+thus+combined+with+the+two+yield+models+(LY+and+HY)+
to+generate+four+BAU+scenarios,+which+assume+that+supply+chains+of+the+future+will+follow+sourcing+patterns+of+the+recent+past.+

Millions

Global#Coffee#Spatial#FootprintLCLY#! BAU#Scenario

25#

20#

15#

15#

10#

"
Andes

Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint
HCLY#! BAU#Scenario

25#

20#

HectaresHectares

Millions

The""Spatial"Footprint"of""four"BAU"scenarios"for"Coffee"

Brazil+Central/America
Caribbean
West/Africa

10#

East/Africa
5#

5#

!

!

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

Central/Africa
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

Southeast/ Asia
South/ Asia
Oceania

!

[11]!

+

25#

Millions

Millions

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%
Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint
LCHY#! BAU#Scenario

20#

15#

HectaresHectares20#

Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint
HCHY#! BAU#Scenario

25#

10#

15#

10#

5#

5#

!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

+

The+LCHYHBAU+scenario+would+allow+the+coffee+sector+to+maintain+an+approximately+equivalent+
spatial+footprint,+while+a+LCLYHBAU+scenario+would+require+a+moderately+larger+footprint.++Both+the+HCLYHBAU+and+HCHYHBAU+scenarios+require+significant+expansion+of+coffee+plantations;+in+both+cases,+this+would+require+about+65,000+hectares+of+increased+production+each+year+between+2020+
and+2030.++By+way+of+comparison,+Costa+Rica+has+about+150,000+hectares+of+plantations+currently+in+
production.+Post+2030+when+projected+consumption+increases+dramatically,+the+differences+in+the+two+yield+models+lead+to+very+different+spatial+footprints:+++••

The+HCLYHBAU+model+would+require+about+310,00+hectares+per+year+by+2035+and+almost+
600,000+hectares+per+year+by+2050++
The+HCHYHBAU+model+would+require+about+210,00+hectares+per+year+by+2035+and+almost+
310,000+hectares+per+year+by+2050+

To+meet+future+demands+under+a+HCHYHBAU+scenario,+Brazil+would+need+to+double+the+area+under+
coffee+cultivation+from+about+two+million+hectares+to+almost+five+million+hectares+by+2050.++Similarly,+
both+Vietnam+and+Indonesia+would+need+to+approximately+double+their+coffee+plantations+by+2050+
under+a+HCHYHBAU+scenario,+or+quadruple+plantations+under+a+HCLYHBAU+scenario.++The+spatial+
footprint+of+coffee+production+is+dramatically+different+when+based+on+a+Diversified+Sourcing+
Scenario+(DSS),+because+it+assumes+that+coffee+companies+choose+to+source+coffee+stocks+from+all+of+
the+major+coffee+production+regions+–+rather+than+concentrating+their+supply+in+the+two+regions+that+have+enjoyed+the+greatest+productivity+growth+over+the+last+two+decades+(see+next+page).+++""

Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint
HCHY#! BAU#Scenario

25#

Millions

Millions

Comparison"of"HCHY=BAU"scenarios"HCHY=DSS"
Andes

Global#Coffee#Spatial#Footprint#(HCHY)
Diversofoed#Sourcing#Scenario

20#

Brazil+18#

Central/America

16#

20#

Caribbean

12#

West/Africa

10#

East/Africa

8#

Central/Africa

6#Southeast/ Asia

HectaresHectares

14#

15#

10#

4#

5#

South/ Asia

2#

Oceania

!

!
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

+

+

In+the+HCHYHDSS+scenario+the+total+spatial+footprint+for+global+coffee+production+is+about+36%+
greater+than+the+HCHYHBAU+Scenario,+while+it+would+about+5%+greater+than+the+HCLYHBAU+scenario.++
A+geographically+diversified+supply+chain+would+provide+resilience+to+global+supply+chains+and+
protect+consumers+from+climatic+disruptions+in+Brazil+and+Southeast+Asia.++More+importantly,+
geographical+diversification+would+ensure+that+coffee+provides+social+and+economic+benefits+to+
hundreds+of+thousands+of+small+farmers+in+other+producing+regions.+

!

[12]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'Arabica'versus'Robusta'
The+relative+proportion+of+Arabica+versus+Robusta+coffee+has+changed+gradually+over+the+last+two+
decades+with+an+increase+in+Robusta+production,+largely+due+to+expansion+of+Robusta+production+in+
Vietnam.++Under+the+BAU+scenarios,+the+relative+proportion+of+the+two+coffee+species+remains+approximately+the+same+after+2020,+with+a+slight+increase+in+the+market+share+of+Robusta.++In+large+
part,+future+increases+in+Robusta+production+in+Southeast+Asia+are+matched+by+future+increases+in+
Arabica+production+in+Brazil;+however,+since+Brazil+also+produces+Robusta,+the+total+market+share+of+
Robusta+species+continues+to+expand.++This+is+not+the+case,+however,+in+the+DSS+scenario.++In+this+
scenario,+the+relative+market+share+of+Arabica+is+increased,+because+production+is+allocated+to+
traditional+coffee+growing+countries+in+the+Andes,+Central+America+and+East+Africa.++Because+
projected+yields+are+assumed+to+smaller+in+these+regions,+the+global+spatial+footprint+of+Arabica+
likewise+increases,+reversing+the+trend+of+previous+decades.+++Robusta"versus"Arabica"
Global%Spatial%Footprint% in%2050

Tons

Millions

Market#Share#in#2050

250,000%

25#

200,000%

20#

150,000%

15#

100,000%

10#

50,000%

5#

!

!

2010

LC! BAU
ArabicaHC#! BAU
Robusta[2010]

HC#! DSS

+

LCHY

LCLY
Arabica

HCHY
Robusta

HCLY

DSS

+

Component'B.'''The'Impact'of'Climate'Change'on'the'Geography'of'coffee'
Production'and'the'Risk'from'Forest'Conversion'
It+is+well+known+that+the+cultivation+of+Arabica+coffee+is+limited+to+cooler+montane+regions+of+the+tropics.++Robusta+is+more+tolerant+of+heat,+but+retains+an+upper+temperature+limit+that+likewise+
restricts+its+growth+from+the+warmest+regions+of+the+humid+tropics;+it+is+also+not+well+adapted+to+
prolonged+dry+seasons.3++Consequently,+both+species+will+be+impacted+by+climate+change.++Assuming+
that+plant+breeders+cannot+develop+new+varieties+adapted+to+warmer+and+more+unstable+climates,+
the+spatial+distribution+of+coffee+cultivation+will+be+displaced+to+areas+that+maintain+the+optimum+
climatic+conditions.++As+such,+the+modeling+framework+used+in+this+analysis+assumes+that+landscapes+
suitable+for+coffee+cultivation+under+current+bioclimatic+conditions+will+be+similar+to+landscapes+
suitable+for+coffee+cultivation+in+future+decades.+++
The+climatic+conditions+characteristic+of+the+current+plantation+landscapes+species+were+identified+by+
Bunn+et"al+(2015)4+and+are+based+on+19+bioclimatic+variables+from+the+WorldClim+dataset.+5++In+that+study,+these+parameters+where+used+to+map+the+relative+suitability+of++tropical+regions+for+the+cultivation+of+both+Arabica+and+Robusta+under+current+conditions.+Subsequently,+the+same+suite+of+
bioclimatic+attributes+were+used+to+identify+the+potentially+suitable+cultivation+landscapes+based+on+
the+same+bioclimatic+parameters+derived+from+five+global+circulation+models+(GCMs)+run+for+the+!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3!!!DaMatta,!Fábio!M.,!and!José!D.!Cochicho!Ramalho.!"Impacts!of!drought!and!temperature!stress!on!coffee!physiology!and!production:!a!
review."!Brazilian!Journal!of!Plant!Physiology!18.1!(2006):!55\81.!
4!!!!Bunn,+C.,+P.+Läderach,+O.+Ovalle,+and+D.+Kirschke.+2014.+“A+bitter+cup:+Climate+Change+profile+of+global+Arabica+and+Robusta+production.”+
In+Proceedings"of"the"25th"International"Conference"on"Coffee"Science.+25th+International+Conference+on+Coffee+Science.+Armenia,+Colombia.+
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584H014H1306Hx+
5!!!Hijmans,!R.!J.,!S.!Cameron,!J.!Parra,!P.!Jones,!A.!Jarvis,!and!K.!Richardson.!"WorldClim."!University!of!California,!Berkeley!(2008).!
(http://www.worldclim.org/_!!

!

[13]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

representative+concentration+pathway+6+(RCP6)6+in+2050+(see+next+page).++
The+analysis+forecasts+an+approximately+50%+reduction+in+the+area+suitable+for+coffee+cultivation+(see+next+page),+which+will+reduce+the+areas+suitable+for+Robusta+cultivation+to+a+much+greater+
extent,+when+compared+to+potential+Arabica+cultivation+areas.+This+was+not+an+expected+outcome+and+may+be+an+artifact+of+the+modeling+framework+that+has+overly+constrained+the+tolerance+of+Robusta+
to+increase+temperature+or+drought+stress+that+might+be+managed+via+management+practices+or+the+ability+of+plant+breeders+to+increase+the+heat+tolerance+of+new+coffee+cultivars.+++++!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6!! GFDL4ESM2M,%HadGEM24ES,%IPSL4CM5A4LR,%MIROCESM4CHEM,%and%NorESM14M,%from!Stocker,!Thomas,!Qin!Dahe,!Gian\Kasper!Plattner,!
Melinda!Tignor,!and!Pauline!Midgley.!"IPCC!expert!meeting!on!assessing!and!combining!multi!model!climate!projections."!Boulder,%Colorado,%
USA!(2010):!25\27.!

!

!

[14]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%+
Global"Coffee"Suitability"in"2010"+"
Global"Coffee"Suitability"in"2050"++
The+geographic+area+suitable+for+cultivating+coffee+were+stratified+according+to+three+criteria:+(1)+Suitable+for+Arabica+(2)+Suitable+for+Robusta+and+(3)+Suitable+for+both+Arabica+and+Robusta+(green).++A+selection+of+regional+and+country+
level+maps+is+provided+in+the+Appendix++
Regardless+of+the+massive+loss+of+climatically+suitable+habitat,+the+demand+for+land+to+establish+or+
maintain+coffee+plantations+will+only+be+only+a+fraction+of+the+total+area+proportion+of+suitable+area+
with+the+necessary+conditions+to+support+the+cultivation+of+coffee+(see+next+page,+right+panel).+
+
"

!

[15]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Millions

Robusta"versus"Arabica"
Spatial5Footprint5 as5Pecent5of5Total55Suitable5Area

Total#Suitable#Area

7#

12%

6#

10%

Area#(km2)

5#

8%

4#

6%

3#

4%

2#

2%

1#

0%

!

2010#Baseline

Arabica#Only[2010]

2050#Projected

Ar.#&#Rob.

Robusta#Only

LCHY

+

LCLY

HCHY

Arabica

Robusta

HCLY

DSS

+

The+dimension+of+the+surplus+of+potential+cultivation+area+when+compared+to+the+actual+demand+varies+among+regions,+but+in+no+case+is+there+any+constraint+that+should+impact+the+expansion+of+
current+production+(see+below)+
Coffee"Production"and"Geographic"Areas"Suitable"for"Coffee"Cultivation"in"2010"
Global$Distribution$of$Coffee$Plantations:$2010

Global$Distribution$of$Suitable$Coffee$$Area$in$2010

Andes

Andes

Brazil+Brazil+Central$America

Central$America

Caribbean

Caribbean

West$Africa

West$Africa

East$Africa

East$Africa

Central$Africa

Central$Africa

Southeast$Asia

Southeast$Asia
South$Asia

South$Asia
Oceania
!

20$

40$

Arabica

Robusta

60$

80$

Square$Kilometers

Arabica

Oceania!

100$
Thousands

500$

1,000$

Square$Kilometers+

Arabica:3Actual3/3Suitable3Area:32010

Robusta
1,500$

2,000$
Thousands+

Robusta:3Actual3/3Suitable3Area:32010
Andes

Andes

Brazil+Brazil+Central3America

Central3America

Caribbean

Caribbean

West3Africa

West3Africa
East3Africa

East3Africa

Central3Africa

Central3Africa

Southeast3Asia

Southeast3Asia

South3Asia

South3Asia
Oceania

Oceania
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

+
+
The+expansion+of+coffee+cultivation+and+the+demand+for+land+will+depend+upon+which+of+the+scenarios+
prevails+in+the+future,+but+even+under+a+demandHintensive+scenario+(HCLYHBAU),+the+surplus+in+
suitable+land+compared+to+the+potential+demand+remains+overwhelming+(see+next+page),+with+the+sole+exception+of+South+Asia+where+the+climatic+model+predicts+a+shortfall+in+area+suitable+for+Arabica+
cultivation.+
+
+

!

+

[16]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%+
Coffee"plantations"and"Geographic"Areas"Suitable"for"Coffee"Cultivation"in"2050"
Global$Distribution$of$Coffee$Plantations
HCLY$2050

Global%Distribution%of%Suitable%Coffee%Area%2050

Andes

Andes

Brazil+Brazil+Central$America

Central%America

Caribbean

Caribbean

West$Africa

West%Africa

East$Africa

East%Africa

Central$Africa

Central%Africa

Southeast$Asia

Southeast%Asia

South$Asia

Arabica

ArabicaSouth%Asia

Robusta

Robusta

Oceania

Oceania
!

20$

40$

60$

80$

Square$Kilometers

100$
Thousands!

Arabica:3Projected33/3Suitable3Area3
HCLY32050

Andes

250%

+

Brazil+Brazil+Central3America

Caribbean

Caribbean

West3Africa

West3Africa

East3Africa

East3Africa

Central3Africa

Central3Africa

Southeast3Asia

Southeast3Asia

South3Asia

South3Asia

750%

1,000%

Square%Kilometers

1,250%

1,500%+

Thousands

Robusta:3Projected3/3Suitable3Area
HCLY32050

Andes

Central3America

500%

Oceania

Oceania
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

+

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

+

In+spite+of+the+surplus+of+areas+suitable+for+coffee+production,+there+may+be+a+shift+in+investment+due+
to+the+availability+of+land+in+2050+when+compared+to+2010.+The+relative+abundance+of+suitable+land+
for+Arabica+cultivation+remains+essentially+the+same,+although+Brazilian+landscapes+are+less+abundant+compared+to+East+Africa.++In+contrast,+the+distribution+of+suitable+Robusta+area+is+radically+
altered+due+to+the+reduction+of+area+from+Central+Africa+as+potential+production+area.+
Global"Distribution"of"Geographic"Areas"Suitable"for"Coffee"Cultivation""
Distribution,of,Suitable,Area,for,Robusta,Plantations,(2010),

Distribution,of,Suitable,Area,for,Arabica,Plantations,(2010),
Andes

Caribbean
OceaniaSouth,
Asia

Brazil+Central,America

Caribbean

Andes

OceaniaSoutheast,AsiaBrazil+South,AsiaCentral,Africa

East,Africa

West,Africa

Southeast,Asia

West,Africa

East,Africa

Central,Africa

Central,America++

Distribution,of,Suitable,Area,for,Arabica,Plantations,(2050),

Distribution,of,Suitable,Area,for,Robusta,Plantations,(2050)

Caribbean
Andes

Andes

Oceania
Brazil+South,AsiaBrazil+Southeast,Asia

Caribbean
Oceania

Central,America

South,AsiaCentral,Africa
West,Africa
Central,America

East,Africa

East,Africa
West,Africa

Southeast,AsiaCentral,Africa+++
The+above+comparison,+however,+does+not+take+into+account+the+constraints+that+might+be+placed+on+
the+expansion+or+displacement+of+coffee+plantations+by+restrictions+on+land+use+in+forest+areas.+++The+
potential+overlap+between+extant+natural+forest+and+landscapes+suitable+for+coffee+cultivation+was+
evaluated+by+overlaying+the+suitability+maps+derived+from+the+WorldClim+and+RCP6+data+layers+with+

!

[17]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

a+global+forest+cover+map+derived+from+Satellite+imagery+by+the+University+of+Maryland+Global+Forest+
Change+2000H2013+digital+map.7+++
Forest"Area"and"Areas"Suitable"for"Coffee"Cultivation"(2013)"+
Forest"Area"and"Areas"Suitable"for"Coffee"Cultivation"(2050)"++

The+threat+of+forest+conversion+from+the+expansion+or+displacement+of+coffee+plantations+increases+
when+the+available+suitable+area+is+covered+by+extant+natural+forest.+A+comparison+of+the+suitable+
area+with+forest+cover+stratified+by+region+shows+that+this+risk+is+greater+in+some+regions+than+others.'+++!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science\2013\global\forest/download_v1.1.html!
!

!

[18]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%"Overlap"between"Suitable"Coffee"Areas"and"Forest"Cover""Robusta:6percent6Suitable6Area6in620506
was6Forest6in62010

Arabica:7Percent7Suitable7Area7in720507
was7Forest7in720107
Global7Mean
Caribbean
Andes
Brazil+Central7America
East7Africa
West7Africa
Central7Africa
Southeast7Asia
South7Asia
Oceania

Global6Mean

48%

69%

Caribbean

56%

48%

Andes

82%

86%

Brazil+22%

42%

Central6America

76%

75%

East6Africa

20%

20%

West6Africa

22%

63%

Central6Africa

58%

79%

Southeast6Asia

91%

88%

South6Asia

76%
93%

72%

Oceania+92%+

For+example,+Brazil+and+East+Africa+have+the+largest+suitable+areas+for+Arabica+and+the+lowest+forest+
cover+within+the+potential+expansion+landscapes.+Consequently,+future+expansion+in+these+regions+carries+the+lowest+risk+of+future+deforestation.++Nonetheless,+other+nonHforest+landscapes+might+be+at+
risk,+particularly+in+East+Africa+where+upland+landscapes+are+covered+by+natural+grasslands+home+to+
the+continent’s+charismatic+megaHfauna.+The+risk+from+deforestation+linked+to+Arabica+cultivation+is+
relatively+high+in+the+Andes+and+Southeast+Asia,+at+least+when+the+data+is+summarized+at+the+regional+
level.+++
Similarly,+Brazil+and+East+Africa+both+offer+limited+risk+for+deforestation+for+Robusta+expansion,+while+the+Andes+and+Southeast+Asia+have+the+most+forest+resources+located+within+the+areas+
identified+as+suitable+for+Robusta+cultivation.+
The+potential+conflict+between+the+expansion+of+or+displacement+of+coffee+plantations+and+
management+of+established+protected+areas+is+relatively+small+and+should+be+manageable+in+most+
instances.+(see+below)+
Overlap"between"Suitable"Coffee"Areas"and"Protected"Areas'
Percent1Suitable1Area1(2050)1inside1 a1Protected1Area
Caribbean
Andes
Brazil+Central1America
East1Africa
West1Africa
Central1Africa
Southeast1Asia
South1Asia
Oceania
0%

'
'

!

5%

10%

'

[19]!

15%

20%

25%

'

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'

Discussion'
It+is+difficult+to+predict+consumer+behavior+decades+into+the+future,+particularly+regarding+a+nonH
essential+commodity+such+as+coffee.++Coffee+consumption+has+expanded+over+centuries+and+decades+
and+its+popularity+as+a+beverage+continues+to+grow+both+within+traditional+coffee+consuming+
cultures,+as+well+as+in+societies+that+have+long+preferred+tea.++If+these+trends+continue+the+demand+for+coffee+will+double+or+even+triple+by+mid+Century.++Most+of+this+growth+is+due+to+demographics,+as+even+moderate+levels+of+coffee+consumption+in+China+and+India+have+large+impacts+on+global+supply+
chains.++Equally+important+is+the+projected+demand+from+SubHSaharan+Africa,+which+is+projected+to+
experience+a+massive+increase+in+population+and+where+coffee+production+may+foster+increased+coffee+consumption.+++
The+two+consumption+scenarios+evaluated+show+the+range+of+the+potential+demand+over+the+next+two+
decades,+from+about+7.5+million+tons+per+year+today+to+between+12+(LC)+and+21+(HC)+million+tons+by+
2050.++The+HC+scenario+is+probably+the+most+likely+and+may+even+be+a+conservative+estimate+of+future+
demand,+as+it+assumes+that+coffee+consumption+in+North+America,+Europe+and+Latin+America+remains+stable.++Recent+trends+in+decreased+soft+drink+consumption+may+foster+greater+growth+in+cold+coffee+
drinks,+however,+while+consumption+in+Latin+America+could+conceivably+grow+to+resemble+European+countries+as+that+region+becomes+more+affluent.+
The+technology+and+culture+of+coffee+cultivation+vary+greatly+among+regions.++Traditional+shade+coffee+practices+generally+also+tend+to+be+low+yielding,+but+may+continue+to+capture+market+share+due+
to+the+superior+qualities+associated+with+shade+coffee+varieties,+as+well+as+the+tendency+to+rely+on+
handHharvesting,+which+ensures+that+beans+are+picked+at+the+optimum+moment.++It+is+a+common+assumption+that+Arabica+varieties+have+inherently+lower+yields+when+compared+to+Robusta+varieties,+
but+producers+in+Brazil+have+demonstrated+that+when+Arabica+is+cultivated+using+technological+
practices+similar+to+Robusta+plantations,+yields+are+approximately+equivalent.+
The+intensification+of+coffee+plantations+in+Brazil+and+Vietnam+has+transformed+coffee+supply+chains+
over+the+last+twenty+years.++If+these+trends+continue+and+coffee+traders+continue+to+favor+low+cost+producers,+then+Brazil+and+Southeast+Asia+will+continue+to+dominate+global+supply+chains.+There+is+
some+concern+that+Vietnam+may+have+limited+capacity+to+expand+production,+but+other+regions+in+
Southeast+Asia+are+likely+to+adopt+the+Vietnamese+production+model.+Unlike+Brazil,+Vietnamese+
producers+are+largely+smallholders+and+their+coffee+production+model+may+be+attractive+to+
smallholders+on+the+Indonesian+island+of+Sumatra,+which+has+a+long+history+of+coffee+production.+
Similarly,+the+Brazilian+model+could+be+adopted+by+Arabica+producers+in+Colombia+and+Kenya.+
The+superabundance+of+suitable+coffee+growing+areas+is+remarkable.+This+does+not+mean,+however,+that+there+will+not+be+largeHscale+displacement+of+coffee+plantations+over+the+next+40+years.++If+
geneticists+are+unable+to+breed+new+varieties+adapted+to+warmer+conditions+or+plantation+managers+
fail+to+develop+cultural+practices+that+mitigate+the+impacts+of+climate+change,+then+producers+will+be+
forced+to+migrate+their+plantations+to+cooler+and+more+humid+landscapes.++Since+a+plantation+
produces+for+twenty+to+thirty+years,+the+impact+of+climate+change+might+cause+producers+to+prematurely+abandon+existing+plantations+causing+disruptions+to+existing+supply+chains+or+impacting+the+longHterm+economic+return+that+underpins+the+current+system.++
In+the+case+of+Arabica,+this+would+be+largely+an+altitudinal+shift,+which+could+favor+producers+in+the+
Andes,+where+potential+habitat+is+available+upslope,+or+perhaps+on+south+facing+slopes+that+experience+less+insolation.++The+total+suitable+area+would+be+reduced+by+44%+from+about+2.3+to+1.3+
million+km2,+but+this+is+still+far+in+excess+of+the+projected+demand+between+53,000+(LCHYHBAU)+and+
136,000+km2+(HCHYHDSS).++++

!

[20]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

An+unexpected+outcome+from+the+modeling+exercise+was+the+very+large+reduction+in+the+potential+
area+suitable+for+Robusta+cultivation.++The+total+suitable+area+would+be+reduced+by+59%+from+about+
4.2+to+1.6+million,+which+is+likewise+still+far+in+excess+of+the+projected+demand.++Proportionally,+this+represents+a+much+greater+impact+from+climate+change+on+the+species+that+is+widely+assumed+to+be+
more+resilient+to+higher+temperatures.++Notably,+the+largest+greatest+reduction+was+observed+in+Central+Africa,+the+geographical+origin+of+Robusta+and,+presumably,+the+region+with+the+greatest+
genetic+diversity+within+its+wild+populations+and+traditional+cultivars.++Other+areas+that+experienced+
a+modeled+reduction+in+the+suitability+of+Robusta+landscapes+was+Rondônia+Brazil,+which+is+currently+
a+major+producer+of+Robusta+coffee,+and+the+Coastal+Caribbean,+which+is+not+(see+Appendix).+
These+predictions+might+actually+be+an+artifact+of+the+modeling+methodology,+which+is+based+on+a+suite+of+bioclimatic+attributes+derived+from+landscapes+where+Arabica+and+Robusta+are+actually+grown+–+rather+than+on+the+known+(or+assumed)+range+of+their+heat+and+drought+tolerance.+++In+a+
preliminary+modeling+effort,+based+on+temperature+and+precipitation+regimes,+the+projected+suitable+
area+was+almost+five+times+greater+than+the+ranges+based+on+climate+attributes.+
Regardless+of+which+modeled+scenario+is+closest+to+an+actual+future+outcome,+all+of+them+represent+
similar+threats+to+forest+cover,+because+the+reduction+in+suitability+impacts+the+non+forest+area+at+
approximately+the+same+level+as+natural+forest+area.+The+greatest+threat+from+expanded+or+shifted+
Arabica+production+would+most+likely+occur+in+the+Andes+and+Central+America,+since+most+of+the+
upslope+areas+in+these+regions+are+covered+by+montane+[cloud]+forest,+a+biome+that+is+particularly+
rich+in+species+diversity+and+endemism.++In+contrast,+potential+Arabica+landscapes+in+Brazil+and+East+
Africa+are+largely+non+forest+landscapes.+In+Brazil,+most+of+this+area+is+probably+agricultural+
landscapes+or+degraded+pasture.++Potential+production+landscapes+in+East+Africa+face+an+even+more+
serious+management+challenge+due+to+a+rapidly+expanding+human+population+and+the+need+to+
convert+both+forest+and+nonHforest+habitat+for+food+production.++Most+of+the+potential+Robusta+
expansion+areas+in+2050+are+located+in+Southeast+Asia,+which+increases+the+risk+to+forested+
landscapes+and+biodiversity+hotspots+on+the+islands+of+Borneo,+Sumatra,+Sulawesi+and+Papua.+++Many+of+the+suitable+Robusta+landscapes+are+located+in+montane+areas+and+occupy+landscapes+
located+below+Arabica+landscapes,+with+overlapping+zones+that+are+appropriate+for+both+species.+This+highlights+the+possibility+that+existing+Arabica+coffee+plantations+may+be+replanted+with+Robusta+
varieties+or,+potentially,+interHspecific+hybrids+that+incorporate+the+flavor+characteristics+of+Arabica+
with+the+environmental+tolerance+of+Robusta.'
'
'

!

[21]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Conclusion'
Coffee+consumption+will+experience+strong+growth+over+the+next+30+years+leading+to+the+expansion+of+
plantations+in+regions+that+currently+cultivate+both+Arabica+and+Robusta.++The+scale+of+this+growth+
will+largely+depend+on+consumer+beverage+preferences+in+East+Asia,+South+Asia+and+Sub+Saharan+
Africa.++The+impact+of+that+consumption+on+supply+chains+will+likewise+be+influenced+by+their+relative+
consumption+of+mass+market+coffees+from+intensive+production+system,+largely+Robusta,+and+specialty+coffees+composed+of+Arabica+varieties+cultivated+under+shade+and+harvested+by+hand.+++Coffee+supply+chains+are+likely+to+experience+significant+disruption+due+to+climate+change+over+the+next+forty+years.++This+should+not+lead+to+a+shortage+of+available+land+to+support+the+cultivation+of+
either+Robusta+or+Arabica+coffees,+however,+but+there+may+be+a+topographic+or+latitudinal+shift+as+
traditional+coffee+production+areas+become+too+warm+or+prone+to+periodic+droughtHlike+conditions.++
The+shift+of+coffee+production+landscapes+may+lead+to+significant+deforestation,+since+many+of+the+suitable+areas+in+2050+are+currently+covered+by+natural+forest+ecosystems.++The+largest+risk+for+future+
deforestation+will+be+in+Central+America+and+the+Andes+due+to+expansion+or+shift+in+Arabica+
production+and+Indonesia+due+to+expansion+or+shifts+in+Robusta+cultivation.++

'
'

!

'

[22]!

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Brazil'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Brazil'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Brazil'Suitable+Area+(km2)+

2010'

2050'

+1,158,613+++451,788++

Arabica++797,575+++279,769++

Robusta++400,581+++182,609+++28,426+++44,810++Arabica++12,857+++34,881++

Robusta++8,572+++23,254++

Plantation+Area+(km2)+

'

!

[23]!

The+area+suitable+for+
cultivation+decreases+by+more+
than+50%,+but+still+vastly+
exceeds+the+projected+demand+
for+coffee+cultivation+under+the+HCLYHBAU+scenario,+but+
Rondônia+becomes+a+non+
viable+coffee+cultivation+region.+++Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Brazil'2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover'+Brazil'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Brazil'

2010'

2050'

Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+++301,538++125,450+

Arabica++130,020++61,199+

Robusta++192,385++71,010+857,075+

326,338+

Arabica+

667,555+

218,570+

Robusta+

208,196+

111,599+

Suitable+Area+Non+forest(km2)+

'
'

!

[24]!

The+impact+of+climate+change+
on+suitable+area+affects+forest+
and+non+forest+areas+
approximately+equally,+but+
most+of+the+area+available+for+
expansion+is+in+non+forest+
landscapes+

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Central'America'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Central'America'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Central'America'
Suitable+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
Plantation+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+

2010'
285,216+
136,338++228,741++
16,615+
16,449+166+

2050'
126,448+
71,312+
99,592+
43,648+43,212+
436+

+'

'

!

[25]!

The+area+suitable+for+
cultivation+decreases+by+more+
than+50%,+but+still+vastly+
exceeds+the+projected+demand+
for+coffee+cultivation+under+the+
HCHYHDS+scenario+

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Central'America'2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Central'America'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Central'America'
Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
Suitable+Area+Non+forest(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+

2010'
185,749+
88,348+
154,914++
99,467+47,989+73,827+2050'
112,622+52,667+74,014+
13,826+
18,645+25,578+

'
'
'

!

[26]!

The+impact+of+climate+change+on+
suitable+area+affects+forest+and+
non+forest+areas+approximately+
equally,+but+for+Arabica+to+expand+
to+meet+demand+under+a+HCHYH+
DS+Scenario+some+deforestation+
would+be+almost+inevitable+

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Colombia'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Colombia'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Colombia'
Suitable+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
Plantation+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+

2010'
182,165+++106,779+
151,183+
7,652++5,356++2050'+140,371+++88,509+++119,727++21,818++15,272+++2,296+++6,545++

'
'

!

[27]!

The+area+suitable+for+cultivation+
decreases+by+about+30%,+but+still+
vastly+exceeds+the+projected+
demand+for+coffee+cultivation+
under+the+HCHYHDS+scenario;+the+largest+spatial+area+is+a+transition+zone+that+is+suitable+for+both+coffee+
species.+Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'
Colombia'2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''

Colombia'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''
Colombia'

2010'

2050'

+144,925++

112,622+

Arabica+

83,856++69,677++

Robusta+

120,135+

96,510+Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+

Suitable+Area+Non+forest(km2)+!

+37,240++

27,749+Arabica+

22,923+

18,832+

Robusta+

31,048+23,217+[28]!

The+impact+of+climate+change+on+suitable+area+
affects+forest+and+non+
forest+areas+
approximately+equally,+
but+most+of+the+area+for+
expansion+is+located+in+
forest+landscapes'

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%'
Mexico'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Mexico'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Mexico'2010'

Suitable+Area+(km2)+

136,665++55,454+

Arabica+++107,223+++54,144+

Robusta+

50,310+++6,124+

Plantation+Area+(km2)+

'

!

2050'

7,083+

18,110+Arabica+

4,958+

12,677+

Robusta+

2,125+

5,433+'[29]!

The+area+suitable+for+Arabica+cultivation+
decreases+by+about+40%,+and+by+about+
90%+for+Robusta,+which+approximates+the+
potential+demand+under+the+HCHYHDS+
scenario'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Mexico'Current'2010'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''

Mexico'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''
Mexico'

2010'

2050'

Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+

96,275+43,485+

Arabica+

75,865+42,601+

Robusta+

39,952+5,581+

Suitable+Area+Non+Forest(km2)++'!

+40,390++

11,969+Arabica+

31,358+

11,543+

Robusta+

10,358+

543+

'

[30]!

The+impact+of+climate+change+on+
suitable+area+affects+forest+and+non+
forest+areas+approximately+equally,+
but+most+of+the+area+for+expansion+is+located+in+forest+landscapes.'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Ethiopia'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Ethiopia'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Ethiopia'
Suitable+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
Plantation+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
'

!

2010'
179,347+
168,787+
19,609+5,144+
5,144+
H+'

2050'
208,682+
195,265+
38,709+18,218+18,218+H+[31]!

The+area+suitable+for+
Arabica+cultivation+actually+
increases+due+to+climate+change'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Ethiopia2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''

Ethiopia'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''
Ethiopia'

2010'

2050'

Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+

31,248+29,652+

Arabica+

30,298+28,314+

Robusta+

2,611+

12,298++148,099++

179,030+

138,489+

166,951+

16,998+26,411+

Suitable+Area+Non+Forest(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+

'

!

'

[32]!

The+impact+of+climate+change+
on+suitable+area+affects+forest+
and+non+forest+areas+
approximately+equally,+but+
most+of+the+area+for+
expansion+is+located+in+non+
forest+landscapes.'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Indonesia'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Indonesia'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Indonesia'
Suitable+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
Plantation+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+
Robusta+
'

!

2010'
535,757+++90,222+
512,985+
12,651+2,530+
10,121+

2050'
337,198+
77,246+
317,000+
15,275+
3,055+
12,220++[33]!

Although+it+is+well+known+for+its+elite+Arabica+coffees,+Robusta+production+predominates;++climate+change+restricts+the+potential+area+
suitable+for+Robusta+more++severely+than+
Arabica'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Indonesia2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Indonesia'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Indonesia'
Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+

!

2050'
312,158+

Arabica+

79,053+70,249+Robusta+

462,424+

292,994++52,248++

25,040+Suitable+Area+Non+Forest(km2)+

+'

2010'
483,509+

Arabica+

11,169+6,997+

Robusta+

50,561+

24,006++[34]!

The+vast+majority+of+landscapes+suitable+
for+the+expansion+or+displacement+of+
coffee+production+are+currently+covered+by+forest+vegetation,+but+non+forest+
landscapes+suitable+for+coffee+production+
still+cover+approximately+twice+the+area+of+future+demand+under+a+HCHYHDS+
scenario.'Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Vietnam'2010'Coffee'Suitability''

Vietnam'2050'Coffee'Suitability''
Vietnam'

2010'

2050'

Suitable+Area+(km2)+

86,681+

46,963+

Arabica+

9,878+

3,645+

Robusta+

84,326+

46,473+5,434+

18,105+

Plantation+Area+(km2)+
Arabica+

163+

543+

Robusta+

5,271+

17,562+

'

'

!

[35]!

The+area+suitable+for+Robusta+
cultivation+decreases+by+almost+
50%,+while+Arabica+is+reduced+
by+more+than+60%;+nonetheless,+
the+area+suitable+for+coffee+
cultivation+is+still+more+than+
twice+as+great+as+the+potential+
demand+under+a+HCLYHBAU+
scenario+Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%

Vietnam'2010'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover''Vietnam'2050'Coffee'Suitability'and'2013'Forest'Cover'''
Ethiopia'

2010'

2050'

Suitable+Area+Forest+(km2)+

46,769+31,351+

6,534+

3,117+

Arabica+
Robusta+

44,713+30,870++39,912++

15,612+

Arabica+

3,344+

528+

Robusta+

39,613+

15,603+

Suitable+Area+Non+Forest(km2)+

+
+

!

[36]!

Climate+change+impacts+the+forest+and+non+forest+areas+
approximately+equally,+but+most+of+the+area+for+Robusta+
expansion+is+located+in++forest+
landscapes+and+the+demand+for+area+exceeds+the+potential+
supply+of+on+forest+landscapes'

Coffee%in%the%Twenty%First%Century%+

References'+

Bunn,+C.,+P.+Läderach,+O.+Ovalle,+and+D.+Kirschke.+2014.+“A+bitter+cup:+Climate+Change+profile+of+global+Arabica+
and+Robusta+production.”+In+Proceedings"of"the"25th"International"Conference"on"Coffee"Science.+25th+
International+Conference+on+Coffee+Science.+Armenia,+Colombia.+
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584H014H1306Hx++
DaMatta,+Fábio+M.,+and+José+D.+Cochicho+Ramalho.+"Impacts+of+drought+and+temperature+stress+on+coffee+
physiology+and+production:+a+review."+Brazilian+Journal+of+Plant+Physiology+18.1+(2006):+55H81.+"
FAOSTAT:++http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E+
FAO"country"boundary"shapefile:++Maps+were+created+using+the+data.fao.org+website.+"
GFDL=ESM2M,"HadGEM2=ES,"IPSL=CM5A=LR,"MIROCESM=CHEM,"and"NorESM1=M,"from+Stocker,+Thomas,+Qin+
Dahe,+GianHKasper+Plattner,+Melinda+Tignor,+and+Pauline+Midgley.+"IPCC+expert+meeting+on+assessing+and+combining+multi+model+climate+projections."+Boulder,"Colorado,"USA+(2010):+25H27.++
Hijmans,+R.+J.,+S.+Cameron,+J.+Parra,+P.+Jones,+A.+Jarvis,+and+K.+Richardson.+"WorldClim."+University+of+California,+
Berkeley+(2008).+(http://www.worldclim.org/_++International+Coffee+Organization:++http://www.ico.org/trade_statistics.asp++++
IUCN+and+UNEPHWCMC+2015,+The+World+Database+on+Protected+Areas+(WDPA),+September+2015,+Cambridge,+
UK:+UNEPHWCMC.+Available+at:+www.protectedplanet.net.++

University+of+Maryland+forest+data:+Global+Forest+Change+
Hansen,+M.+C.,+P.+V.+Potapov,+R.+Moore,+M.+Hancher,+S.+A.+Turubanova,+A.+Tyukavina,+D.+Thau,+S.+V.+Stehman,+S.+J.+
Goetz,+T.+R.+Loveland,+A.+Kommareddy,+A.+Egorov,+L.+Chini,+C.+O.+Justice,+and+J.+R.+G.+Townshend.+2013.+“HighH
Resolution+Global+Maps+of+21stHCentury+Forest+Cover+Change.”+Science+342+(15+November):+850–53.+Data+available+onHline+from:+http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/scienceH2013HglobalHforest.+++!

[37]!