Building Dynamics Model : BDM

Maho MIYASHITA of MHIR
2006.10.18

AIM Training Workshop 2006

1. Background• Number and types of dwelling stock have been changing
along with transition of population composition, economic
growth and life style change.
• Energy consumption in households especially for spaceheating and space cooling depends on dwelling types,insulation level and inhabited area.
• It’s necessity to introduce countermeasures based on along-term perspective because of its long lifetime.

2. Input/Output of BDM
Population and household model(1) Number of household [region, year]

Input(2) Number of dwelling stock in the base year
[region, building type, years since construction, year](3) Proportion of number of dwelling stock to number of households(4) Residual ratio [building type, years since construction, year](5) Region distribution of new dwellings [region, year](6) Building type distribution of new dwellings [region, building type, year](7) Average floor space of new dwellings [building type, year]

OutputBuilding Dynamics Model
Number and floor space of dwelling stock[region, building type, Years since construction, year]• Energy Snapshot
Tool• AIM/EnduseModel• Material stock andflow model2. Input/Output of BDM
Source(2) Number of dwelling stock in thebase year

Statistics of MLIT, Architectural Institute of Japan(3) Proportion of number of dwellingstock to number of households

Base year: Calculation from Statistics of MLIT
Future: Value of the base year (fixed)(4) Residual ratio

Base year: Estimation from Statistics of MLIT
Future: Value of the base year (fixed)(5) Region distribution of newdwellings

Population and household model(6) Building type distribution of newdwellings

Base year: Statistics of MLIT
Future: Assumption from past trend(detached houses increase, highly insulated housed increase)(7) Average floor space of newdwellings

Base year: Statistics of MLIT
Future: Assumption based on government’s target

MLIT: Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport3. Logic of BDM
Proportion of number ofdwelling stock to numberof households

Number of dwelling stock(year T-1)
[region, building type,years since construction]

Number ofhouseholds

Population andHousehold Model

Number of new dwellings(year T)
Residual ratioRegiondistribution
Average floor space ofdwellings

Floor space of new dwellings(year T)[region, building typeyears since construction]

Floor space of dwelling stock(year T)[region, building type,years since construction]

Bottom-up
engineering
model

Average floor space of newdwellings

Building type
distribution

Residual number of dwellings(year T)[region, building type,years since construction]

Number of new dwellings(year T)[region, building type]

Floor space of new dwellings(year T)[region, building type]

Number of dwelling stock(year T)[region, building type,years since construction]

Householdproduction andlifestyle model：endogenous variable：exogenous variable4. Output of BDM
60
50

30
20
10Statistics ←→ Estimated figures

Dwellings

Households (from PDM)

Number of dwelling units

2048

2043

2038

2033

2028

2023

2018

2013

2008

2003

1998

1993

1988

1983

1978

1973

1968

1963

0
1958

Million

40

60

50

50

40

40

Wooden detachedNon-wooden detached

Without insulation

1980 standard

Wooden apartment

Non-wooden apartment

1992 standard

1999 standard

Estimated number of dwelling units(by construction)

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2005

2050

2045

2040

2035

02030

02025

102020102015

20

2010

20

2020

30

2015

30

2010

Million

60

2005

Million

4. Output of BDM

Estimated number of dwelling units(by Insulation level)

5. Future work
• Consider relationship between number of new-built
dwellings and macro-economic data
• Investigate relationship between household data anddwelling data
• Expand targeted countries

Thank you!

1. Background
50
45
40
35

Million

30
25
20
15
10
5Wooden detached houses
Wooden apartment houses
Total dwellings (1958,1963)

2003

1998

1993

1988

1983

1978

1973

1968

1963

1958

0Non wooden detached houses
Non wooden apartment houses

Number of occupied dwelling stock2. Input/Output of BDM
100%
Wooden detached houses

90%

Non wooden detachedhousesWooden apartment
housesNon wooden apartment
houses

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Estimated residual ratio