Non-CO2 Gas Emissions Modeling- AIM/Trend, AIM/Enduse, AIM/CGE(Asia) Junichi Fujino
The 8th AIM International Workshop; 13-15, March 2003
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Why do we need modeling for
multi-gas analysis ?
To estimate the effect on
CO2-only mitigation vs. multi-gas mitigation
quantitatively and synthetically
How much economic loss will be reduced ?
Which mitigation option will be adopted?
Is climate change a only target for non-CO2
mitigation options?

Why Multi-gas Mitigation?
2000 Global Net Emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, Fgases,and LUCF (Total 10,863 MMTCE)

CO2 - Fuel andcement
56%

CO2 - LUCF
19%

Non-Fuel Cement
Emissions = 44%CH415%

Source: IEA 2002, CDIAC 2002, & EMF 21

F gases
1%N2O
9%Non-CO2 GHG
Emissions = 25%

Regional CH4 Emissions in 2000
Middle Eastern
Western East
EuropeEurope
Asia
7% 4% 3%Africa 9%
39%
1618
MMTCE
12%
Former12%
13%
SovietUSA+Union
Latin
CanadaAmerica

MMTCE
700

600

Australia/NZ

500

India

8%

400

South &South East
Asia

12%

China

16%

300
200
1000Asia
Asia
Data source: USEPAGlobal CH4 Emissions in 2000
CH4 Emissions (MMTCE)

1800
1600
1400

Waste

Waste water
Solid waste

Manure

1200
1000
800

Agriculture

600

Entericfermentation
Rice cultivation

400
2000

OtherEnergy

Biomass burning
Biofuel combustion

Natural gas
Coal

Global(MMTCE: Million Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

Oil
Data source: USEPAGlobal N2O Emissions in 2000
N2O Emissions (MMTCE)

1000
900

Industry

800

Waste

Industrial
Human Sewage
Manure management

700
600
500
400

Agriculture300

Ag soilmanagement

200
1000

Other Ag sources
Fossil fuel

EnergyGlobal(MMTCE: Million Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

Data source: USEPAGlobal non-CO2 gas emissions (2000)
CH4 N2O F gas
1618 950 122
Coal mining
123
Energy Natural gas system244
459
Oil industry
17
Stat&Mobile sources
1659
Biomass burning
134
51
Agriculture Rice cultivation
177
1610
Ag soil management
656
Enteric fermentation
476
Manure management
61
55
Waste
Solid waste
213
388
Waste water154
21
Adipic acid, Nitric acid60
Industry HFCs
26182
PFCs
29
SF615ODS
52(MMTCE)• Asia: around 1/3 of global non-CO2 gasemissions• Agriculture: the largest emission source of nonCO2 gas is agriculture sector (entericfermentation, agriculture soil management)• Uncertainty: emission factors, mitigation options,abatement policy

Non-CO2 gas emissions ModelingOverview: AIM/Trend
Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)
household, government, industry
intermediate, energy, capital, labor, produced goods and service, tax
AEEI
structure change
technology change

price effect-substitution
elasticity

emissionsservice supply

technologies for
mitigation options

Incomeeffecttechnologies inconversion sectors

investment
effectservice demand

technologies indemand sectors

technology mix

Technology Bottom-up: AIM/Enduse

Overview: AIM/Trend model
Driving ForcesPopulation
GDPGDP share80%

y = 9.8494x -0.5724
R2 = 0.9778

70%
60%
50%
40%

Relationship between
AVA (Agriculture
Value Added andGHG per capita)

Primary energy supply
Projection in Thailand

2030

GDP/cap [1995US$/cap]

1500

2025

1000

2020

500

2015

0NEW
GEO
HYD
NUC
CRW
GAS
OIL
COL

2010

0%

2005

10%

200
180
160
140 2000
120
100
80
60
40200
2000

20%

1995

30%

Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe/yr)

AVA share of GDP [%]GHG emissions
Energy-related
GHG emissions
CO2, SOx, NOx,CH4, N2O, CO

Energyfinal energy demandenergy conversion
primary energy supply

CH4 emissions in AsiaPacific region in 2032

MF: Market Force FW: Fortress World
PR: Policy Reform GT: Great Transition
Mt-CH412108

share of energy-related CH4emission is about 20%

642

South Asia

South East Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

Energy related CH4 emissions in 1995 and 2032
fhi

ANZ andSouth

GT

FW

PR

MF

1995

GT

FW

PR

MF

1995

GT

FW

PR

MF

1995

GT

FW

PR

MF

1995

GT

FW

PR

MF

1995

0

BGD

IND

IRN

NPL

PAK

LKA

IDN

MYS

MMR

PHL

SGP

THA

VNM

CHN

PRKJPN

KOR

TWN

KAZ

KGZ

TJK

TKMUZBAUS

NZL

Energy related CH4 emissions in sub-regions of Asia PacificEnergy Technology

Energy Service- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile- Heating- Lighting- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation

Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions

TechnologyService Demand

Energy Database

Technology Database

Socio-economic Scenario

Energy- Oil- Coal
- Gas
- Solar- (Electricity)- Energy type
- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime- Population Growth- Economic Growth- Industrial Structure- Employees- Lifestyle

Technology Bottom-up: AIM/Enduse Model

Methane abatement options example• Coal mining– Degasification and pipeline injection– Catalytic oxidation• Oil and Gas production and supply– Flaring– Improved design and maintenance of compressors– Use of gas turbines for energy supply• Manure management– Anaerobic digesters• Solid waste management– Anaerobic digesters– Composting– Mechanical biological treatment

Framework of theAIM/Enduse Model for Methane
Energy-economy database
Optimization model of technology systems inenergy supply and demand sectors in the economy

CO2,SO2,NOxemissions; Technologymix; Energy-mix; Costs

Demands for services;
Supply of fossil fuels

Methane database
Optimization model of methane generating
activities in the economy

CH4, N2O emissions;
Activity-mix; Costs• Bottom-up type model• Minimize total system cost for each year
• Stock for each technology is transferred to next period

Next steps

CO2 emissions

GHG tax
BAU
C-Tax= $100/t-C
C-Tax= $200/t-C
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
50C-Tax

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

CH4 emissions (Mt-CH4)

BAUC-Tax=$100/t-C
C-Tax(US$200/t-C)
800
700
600
500
400300C-Tax
20010002000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

CO2 emissions (Mt-C)

CO2 tax scenario:
CO2 and CH4 Emissions

CH4 emissions

GHGTaxEconomic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)
Region
AUS,NZL,CHN,HKG,JPN,KOR,TWN,IDN,MYS,PHL,SGP,THA,VNM
BGD,IND,LKA,ASI,CAN,USA,WEU,EEU,FSU,MEA,LAM,AFR,ROW

Sector* Energy
OIL
COL
GAS
P_C: Oil products
ELY: Electricity* Energy Intensive
I_S: Iron and steel
CRP: Chemical
PPP: Pulp and paper
NMM: Non-metal
OMN: Mining* Agriculture
FPR: Food
LUM: Wood
AGR: Agricultural* Other industry
NFM, TRN, OME,LUM, CNS, TWL, OMF* Other sector
ATP, T_T
SER, DWE
CGD

FactorCapitalLabor
Resource
LandMarginal Abatement Cost ($/TCE)

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves(MACs) for CH4200

World in 2010
150
100500-50-5050150

250

350

450

Discount rate = 5%CH4 reduction

Data source: USEPAAIM/CGE (Asia)
for non-CO2 gas mitigation options
production
and service
sectorintermediate,energy,capital, laboremission reductionenergy recovery

non-CO2mitigation
options(MACs,technology menu)

price
activity levels

produced
goods andservice
importexportmarketcapital
labor

final
demandhouseholdgovernment

abroadAIM model components
for multi-gas analysis• AIM/Trend: Overview Sketch of Multi-gas– 42 countries in Asia-Pacific region– Simple econometric model• AIM/Enduse: Detailed Sketch of Multi-gas– 20 countries in Asia-Pacific region– Bottom-up model with detailed technological processes• AIM/CGE: Long-term scenario of Multi-gas– Top-down global model (17 regions in Asia-Pacific)– Multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model– Recursive dynamics

Remarks• Trade-off: CO2 only policy will increase non-CO2 gasemissions by substitution coal with gas• Co-benefit: Methane policy will not only reduce methane
emission but may increase energy recovery• Leakage through trade: non-CO2 gas leakage problem
will become serious by global trade of natural gas,
livestock products…

• Include non-energy sector (agriculture, waste…)• Linkage of CO2 model and non-CO2 model• Linkage of technology bottom-up model andeconomy top-down model