New Integrated Modeling with
Special Reference to APEIS〜Environmental Strategic Database Engine〜

Yuzuru Matsuoka
The 9th AIM International Workshop
12-14, March 2004
At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 3058506,Tsukuba, Japan

Concept of Environmental Strategic Database
Strategic database for the environmental policy decision is composed oftables of technologies, management institutions, and scenarios, etc. andan integrated module part (Inference Engine, SDBE) where thisinformation are integrated and analyzed.
MODEL

Policy Maker’s
Conference

Policy Design &Assessment

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trendCase Study

Korea
China

AIM/Energy, AIM/Material
AIM/Trend, AIM/CGE
AIM/Ecosystem

SDB Engine

Inference Engine

India

RISPO

Thailand

Monitoringdata by IEM

individual
Law, Policy,
individual
technology
Target,Tax,technology
Financial Market...

individual

individual
Population,technology
GDP, Emission,technology
Policy Option,
Constraint ...

Japan

Expert Meeting

Discussion on Availability andBarrier of Environmental
Innovation Strategy

individual
Operation,individual
technology
Management,technology
Governance...

individual
Energy,technology
technology
Pollution,IT...

individual

individual
Ecosystem
technology
Water,
technology
Agriculture,
Health ...

Institution and Management
Database

TechnologyDatabase

Adaptation
Database

individualScenario
Database

Integrating module of SDB (SDBE)
The purpose of the integrating module (Inferenceengine of SDB, SDBE) is to evaluate and analyze theeffect of the technological, sociological and politicaltransition and intervention for future 10-50 years,
especially in the fields of energy supply,consumption, material recycling, water and land-use,
environmental burdens and the correspondence
measures as inclusively as possible, based on
information described by the tables.

What SDBE can do and cannot do
What SDBE can do:• Perturbation analysis of a key concept oridea of environmental innovation• Generic and integrated approach ontechnological, economical and institutional
aspects of a target concept/idea
What SDBE cannot do:• Macro-economic consistency of analysis• Detailed engineering analysis and capitalcohort structures

Two driving forces and preferences
which change the future in SDBE
• Changes of demands given by demand scenarios• Changes in technical and social efficiencies given bytrend and policy scenarios• Changes of preference given by trend and policy
scenariosEnvironmental
Load

Socio-economictechnological
Trend

Integration
module SDBECounter policy

ServiceDemandIntegration module of SDB (SDBE)
Environmental
load

SocialEfficiency

Engineering
Efficiency

Institution

Technology
Improvement

Socio-Economic
Trend

People’spreferenceManagementsystem

Counter policy

Life
Style

Service DemandSocio-economic activity

Multi calculation stages
Initialization stage:
System characteristics at the beginning of the time step are set. Informationneeded for the setting is state variable values in the previous time step, orfrom demand scenarios, trend and policy scenarios, etc.
Substitution of parameter values.

Accompanying calculation stage:
System characteristic values derived from trend and policy scenarios, etc.
are calculated one by one based on the causal relations assumed. As for thecause and effect relationships of the inference, trend and policy scenarios
are starting points of the causes. Algebraic calculation stage.

Main calculation stage:
To fulfill demand scenarios, required amounts of quantitative activities in thesystem are calculated. As for the causal relation of this stage, demand
scenarios are the outsets of the causes. Mathematical programming stage.

Elements of SDBE
CO2

FL_CO2_TPMVGS
FL_NOX_TPMVGS
FL_OIL_TPMVG
S

CF_CO2NOx

FL_CO2_TPMVHB
FL_NOX_TPMVH
B
FL_OIL_TPMVHB

CF_NOX

Conventional
Gasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVGS_TPMV

AQ_TPMVGS

HybridGasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVHB_TPMV

AQ_TPMVHB

Passenger
Transportation
by motorvehicle

FL_TPMV

CF_TPMV

Gasoline
CF_OIL

Electricity
CF_ELE

Passenger
Transportation bymotor vehicle
SND_TPMV

FL_ELE_VRMTSY
S

Virtualcommunication
System
AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_VRMTSYS_TPMVCampaign to spread theawareness of adjustment
for tire air pressureSNP_TR_ATP

Constraint on NOx Emission
SNC_NOX_CNST

Environmental
Premium
TR_HBCH

Carbon tax
SNP_C2_CTAX
Level activity

Sales Campaign for
Hybrid Vehicle
SNP_TR_HBCH

Confluence

Quantitative
activity withstock

Demand scenario
Policy/Trend scenario

Constraint scenario

Activity•Activity to produce service or goods. The size of the activity(activity level) can be quantified or measured.
•Two kinds of activity:
1)Quantitative activity has countably additive metrics
2)Level activity has no countably additive metrics to describe thelevel of activity.
•Two kinds of quantitative activities:
1)with capital (stock), 2) without capital (stock)•Quantitative activities are evaluated at the main calculation stage.
Level activity is evaluated at the accompanied calculation stage.
•The amounts of inputs, outputs and costs of a quantitative activity
are proportional to the amount of the activity. The I/O
coefficients are prescribed or estimated based on other variables
and scenarios. Level activity is algebraically calculated with othervariables and parameters of the system. Quantitative activity iscalculated by mathematical programming of a minimum cost problem.

Elements of SDBE
CO2

FL_CO2_TPMVGS
FL_NOX_TPMVGS
FL_OIL_TPMVG
S

CF_CO2NOx

FL_CO2_TPMVHB
FL_NOX_TPMVH
B
FL_OIL_TPMVHB

CF_NOX

Conventional
Gasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVGS_TPMV

AQ_TPMVGS

HybridGasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVHB_TPMV

AQ_TPMVHB

Passenger
Transportation
by motorvehicle

FL_TPMV

CF_TPMV

Gasoline
CF_OIL

Electricity
CF_ELE

Passenger
Transportation bymotor vehicle
SND_TPMV

FL_ELE_VRMTSY
S

Virtualcommunication
System
AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_VRMTSYS_TPMVCampaign to spread theawareness of adjustment
for tire air pressure
SNP_TR_ATP

Constraint on NOx Emission
SNC_NOX_CNST

EnvironmentalPremium
TR_HBCH

Carbon tax
SNP_C2_CTAX
Level activity

Sales Campaign forHybrid Vehicle
SNP_TR_HBCH

Confluence

Quantitative
activity withstock

Demand scenario
Policy/Trend scenario

Constraint scenario

Stock•Stock is attached to a quantitative activity and has almost same
concept as that of capital.
• The stock decreases temporally by depletion and increases byinvestment. Cost is required for the investment, and proportional
to the investment.
•Several concepts of stocks may be exist such as, 1)physical,
2)human, 3)intellectual, 4)social infrastructure, and 6)social
relation ones. They are treated in the same style, and nodifference exists from the view point of parsing information inthe calculation.
•The minimum capacity among these stocks restricts the maximum
amounts of the activity (Leontief assumption).

Elements of SDBE
CO2

FL_CO2_TPMVGS
FL_NOX_TPMVGS
FL_OIL_TPMVG
S

CF_CO2NOx

FL_CO2_TPMVHB
FL_NOX_TPMVH
B
FL_OIL_TPMVHB

CF_NOX

Conventional
Gasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVGS_TPMVAQ_TPMVGS

HybridGasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVHB_TPMV

AQ_TPMVHB

Passenger
Transportation
by motorvehicle

FL_TPMV

CF_TPMV

Gasoline
CF_OIL

Electricity
CF_ELE

Passenger
Transportation bymotor vehicle
SND_TPMV

FL_ELE_VRMTSY
S

Virtualcommunication
System
AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_VRMTSYS_TPMVCampaign to spread theawareness of adjustment
for tire air pressure
SNP_TR_ATP

Constraint on NOx Emission
SNC_NOX_CNST

Environmental
Premium
TR_HBCH

Carbon tax
SNP_C2_CTAX
Level activity

Sales Campaign for
Hybrid Vehicle
SNP_TR_HBCH

Confluence

Quantitative
activity withstock

Demand scenario
Policy/Trend scenario

Constraint scenario

Flow•Flow of goods or service between a quantitative activity and theconfluence or between the confluences. When one edge is connectedwith a quantitative activity, it is input flow or output flow.
•Flow rate is attached to a flow. It denotes the amount of good orservice moved from the upstream edge to the downstream edge
within a unit time.
•The size of the flow rate is proportional to the amount of theconnected activity. The proportionality coefficient is called“conductance” (flow rate /activity).
•Usually, flow is attached to a quantitative activity. Independent flowthat connects between confluences exists, too. Conductance is notdefined to independent flow.
•A price is attached to a flow. The flow price is a shadow price of theflow rate in the minimization problem of the total cost of the system.

Elements of SDBE
CO2

FL_CO2_TPMVGS
FL_NOX_TPMVGS
FL_OIL_TPMVG
S

CF_CO2NOx

FL_CO2_TPMVHB
FL_NOX_TPMVH
B
FL_OIL_TPMVHB

CF_NOX

Conventional
Gasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVGS_TPMV

AQ_TPMVGS

HybridGasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVHB_TPMV

AQ_TPMVHB

Passenger
Transportation
by motorvehicle

FL_TPMV

CF_TPMV

Gasoline
CF_OIL

Electricity
CF_ELE

Passenger
Transportation bymotor vehicle
SND_TPMV

FL_ELE_VRMTSY
S

Virtualcommunication
System
AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_VRMTSYS_TPMVCampaign to spread theawareness of adjustment
for tire air pressure
SNP_TR_ATP

Constraint on NOx Emission
SNC_NOX_CNST

Environmental
Premium
TR_HBCH

Carbon tax
SNP_C2_CTAX
Level activity

Sales Campaign for
Hybrid Vehicle
SNP_TR_HBCH

Confluence

Quantitative
activity withstock

Demand scenario
Policy/Trend scenarioConstraint scenario

Confluence•Inflows or outflows are attached to confluence.
•When two or more flows flow in, a preference of theinflux flow can be added. The preferences arefunctions of flow costs, etc.
•In a confluence, as a rule, total inflow rate = total
outflow rate is approved. There are confluences withgushing out or suction, too.
•Price can be added to gushing out flow.

Elements of SDBE
CO2

FL_CO2_TPMVGS
FL_NOX_TPMVGS
FL_OIL_TPMVG
S

CF_CO2NOx

FL_CO2_TPMVHB
FL_NOX_TPMVH
B
FL_OIL_TPMVHBCF_NOX

Conventional
Gasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVGS_TPMV

AQ_TPMVGS

HybridGasoline Vehicle

FL_TPMVHB_TPMV

AQ_TPMVHB

Passenger
Transportation
by motorvehicle

FL_TPMV

CF_TPMV

Gasoline
CF_OIL

Electricity
CF_ELE

Passenger
Transportation bymotor vehicle
SND_TPMV

FL_ELE_VRMTSY
S

Virtualcommunication
System
AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_VRMTSYS_TPMVCampaign to spread theawareness of adjustment
for tire air pressure
SNP_TR_ATP

Constraint on NOx Emission
SNC_NOX_CNST

Environmental
Premium
TR_HBCH

Carbon tax
SNP_C2_CTAX
Level activity

Sales Campaign for
Hybrid Vehicle
SNP_TR_HBCH

Confluence

Quantitative
activity withstock

Demand scenario
Policy/Trend scenario

Constraint scenario

Scenario•Scenarios are time serial information of 1) demand, 2) trend/policy and 3) constraints temporally change.
•The scenarios concerning 1)-3) is called element scenarios. The
element scenarios may have inconsistency among them. Therefore,
it is necessary to select compatible, necessary and sufficient
combination among them according to the target cases.
•The selected element scenarios are called activated scenario
elements. The element scenario not selected is called inert
scenarios.
•The group of the element scenarios activated at the same time iscalled an examination scenario group.

What we should take care to
apply SDBE
• Need systematic and quantitative
preparation of upstream and downstream
causal nexus from the view points oftechnological, economical and institutional
characteristics• Appropriate abstraction of the systemdescription• Complementary role and position withother AIM models