Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation
1． ProjectCountry: People's Republic of Bangladesh
Name of the Project: Haor Flood Management and Livelihood Improvement Project
Loan Agreement: June 16, 2014
Loan Amount: 15.270 billion yen
Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2． Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current Status and Issues in the Haor Area in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is located in a low-lying delta formed by three international rivers: theGanges, which runs a total length of 1,720,000 km2, the Brahmaputra, and theMeghna. More than 20% of the land is inundated during the rainy season each year
due to the flooding that typically occurs, bringing over 80% of the region’s annualprecipitation. In the upper reaches of the Meghna River, in the northeastern part of thecountry, is a large basin wetland 3-5 meters above sea level that is known as a ”haor”.
In the rainy season, the area becomes one large lake about 8,600 km2 in size. The
upstream areas of the Meghna River support people's livelihoods by producing a vast
amount of rice in the dry season, and an abundant fish catch in the rainy season.
However, flash floods in the pre-monsoon period frequently damage the area. Flashfloods are those triggered by torrential rains in hilly areas, where water levels risedramatically in a short period of time along the river.
People who live in the haor area depend on "boro" (single-crop rice, cultivatedbetween May and December) as their primary source of income. However, thefrequent flash floods can cause severe damage to the rice fields just before harvesting,which destabilizes their livelihoods. Although agricultural productivity is relatively low
compared to other areas due to the heavy dependency on single-crop rice, people in
the area have limited opportunities for employment in industries other than agriculture
and fishing. Because development of rural roads and other basic infrastructure isbehind other areas, and because people live scattered among slightly elevated areas,
residents suffer from poor sanitation conditions. This results in poor social indicators inhealth care and education.
(2) Development Policies for the Haor Area in Bangladesh and the Priority of theProject
As the nation's top-ranked development strategy, the 6th Five-Year Plan(2011/2012–2015/2016) defines the Haor area as one requiring special consideration
due to poor accessibility and vulnerability to natural disasters, including floods. On theother hand, the area is also identified as a promising one with lots of room forproductivity improvements in terms of promoting agricultural and fishing activities. Thearea is thus targeted for advancement in these areas.
The Bangladesh Haor and Wetland Development Board was established as acoordinating institution with the purpose of overcoming the vulnerabilities of the Haor
area and promoting comprehensive regional development highlighting the area'spotential. In April 2012, the Master Plan of Haor Areas was formulated as acomprehensive development plan for next two decades in the area. The Master Plan
identifies flash flood measures, measures to combat wave erosion, drainage
improvements, road and river navigation improvements, agricultural and fisherypromotions as necessary and highly prioritized. The Haor Flood Management andLivelihood Improvement Project ("this project") will implement these measures as apart of the Master Plan.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Aid Policy/Actual Performance for Haor Area
In JICA Country Analytical Work (April 2013), "disaster management / climatechange countermeasures" and "agriculture/rural development" are seen as the key toovercoming social vulnerabilities. The Japan’s Country Assistance Program for
Bangladesh (June 2012) also identified "disaster/climate change countermeasures"and "rural development" as priority areas. Key strategies from the perspective ofdisaster prevention were reducing damage from floods and contributing to better
standards of living in the haor area. From the perspective of rural development,
infrastructure improvements to mitigate socioeconomic gaps between urban and ruralareas were identified as key. This project is thus consistent with Japan’s and JICA’said policies and analyses. Major assistances provided to Bangladesh are listed below:·Loan assistance projects: The Small Scale Water Resources Development
Project (SSWRDP, 2007) and Northern Bangladesh Integrated Development
Project (2013)(4) Response from Other Donors
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has supported SSWRDP through threephases. Under this scheme, support is provided for planning, operation, andmaintenance of water resource-related facilities with resident participation in areasthat include the haor area in the northeast. The World Bank (WB) has provided
support for building a maintenance system for anti-flood facilities and developing rural
infrastructure in the northeast and other areas. However, neither the ADB nor WB
have provided support programs exclusively targeting the haor area.
(5) Necessity of the ProjectThis project aims to mitigate flood damage and improve living conditions in the haor
area located along upstream sections of the Meghna River, a region which is most
severely affected by floods and in which infrastructure development has fallen behind.
The project is in line with the problems and development policy set forth by theGovernment of Bangladesh as well as the cooperation policies of the Government ofJapan and JICA. Therefore, the necessity and relevancy to implement of this projectare high.
3． Project Description(1) Project Objectives
The objective of the project is to mitigate flood damage and improve accessibility tobasic infrastructure and productivity for the agricultural and fishing industries in the haor
area, thereby contributing to the improvement of living standards and accelerating
economic development.
(2) Project Site/Target Area: Five districts in northeastern Bangladesh (Kishoreganj,Netrokona, Sunamganj, and Habiganj, Brahmanbaria)(3) Project Components
1) The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) sets up anti-flood facilities(e.g. renovating and newly constructing (through domestic bidding) embankments,
submergible embankments, drainage facilities, and sluiceways)2) The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) creates ruralinfrastructure (e.g. renovating and newly constructing (through domestic bidding)rural roads, rural markets, and ghats).
3) BWDB conducts agricultural promotion activities (various forms of support thatcontribute to productivity), while LGED carries out fishery activities.
4) Consultation services (e.g. detailed designs, bidding support, supervision ofconstruction work, improvement of agricultural and fishery promotion supportactivities) (short-list)(4) Total Project Cost
26.141 billion yen (Yen Loan Amount: 15.270 billion yen)
(5) Project Implementation Schedule
Planned between June 2014 and April 2023 (total of 107 months) Projectcompletion is defined as commencement of facility services (April 2022)(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh2) Executing Agency: Bangladesh Water Development Board and Local
Government Engineering Department
3) Operation and Maintenance System: Executing agencies(7) Environmental and Social Considerations, Poverty Reduction, and Social
Development
1) Environmental and Social Considerations
i. Category: B
ii. Reason for Categorization: The Project is classified category B in
accordance with JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (April 2010). There is no significant negative environmental
and social impact caused by the Project both during the construction andoperation phases.
iii. Environmental Permit: An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Reportfor flood prevention–related sub-projects is required, as well as an Initial
Environmental Examination (IEE) Report for rural infrastructuredevelopment under Bangladeshi law. The IEE and EIA Reports of theproject were prepared by each sub-project. They will be approved by theDepartment of Environment of Bangladesh before sub-project civil
construction begins. Executing agencies will report approval progress toJICA.
iv. Anti-Pollution Measures: In line with national regulations, a large amount ofexcavated soil and dredge soil generated during construction will be usedto build embankments. Measures such as sprinkling water and adequate
dust, noise, and vibration control for construction vehicles and heavymachinery will be taken; pollution is therefore expected to be minimal.
v. Natural Environment: The project site is not located in or around sensitive
areas such as national parks, and adverse impact on the naturalenvironment is assumed to be minimal.
vi. Social Environment: The project will involve the acquisition of 463 hectares(including those for sub-projects) and involuntary resettlement of 240
households, both of which will be carried out in accordance with thenation’s domestic procedures and the simplified resettlement action
program.
vii. Other/Monitoring: Waste disposal measures, land acquisition, relocation for
local residents, and similar aspects of the project will be monitored by each
executing agency in charge.
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction: As a part of agricultural and fishery promotion
activities, the project supports income improvement activities for the poor
through technical support for vegetable and fruit cultivation, fish hatcheries,and so on. The activities target micro farmers who own less than an acre ofland, agricultural workers, and poor families headed by women.
3) Promotion of Social Development (e.g. Gender Perspective, Measures toPrevent Infectious Diseases Including AIDS, Participatory Development,Consideration for the Handicapped, etc.): The project aims to increase
incomes by providing employment opportunities for impoverished local womenby outsourcing light work or repair work to the Labor Contracting Society (LCS),
which mainly consists of poor women.
(8) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors:
This project will be implemented using the results of the Project for Capacity
Development of Management for Sustainable Water Rrelated Infrastructure (TechnicalCooperation for Development Planning (and Development Study), August2013–August 2016). The TCDP aims to build capacity in design, construction, andmaintenance for the executing agency—the Bangladesh Water Development Board(BWDB).
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A
4． Project Benefits(1) Quantitative benefits
1) Evaluation Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Components

BaselinIndicators (unit)

e*Target (2024)
Twoyears

completion

Largest area flooded for the year (ha)DecreasedFloodHighest water level for the year at-(indicatorsprevention

reference point (m)monitoring)measures

Status of water management group

By sub-project

formation

One or more groups

Annual average traffic volume per day
Rural(cars/year)

infrastructur

Average hours requirede

Number of stores, trade volume, andBoro rice crop (ton/ha)

Agriculturaland fisherypromotioninagricultural

Increased

Increased

products

Increased

Fish catch (ton/ha)

Increased

Diversity in fish species

Increasedhouseholdin

Increased

produced

Averageused

Decreasedsales (store/BDT)Diversity

afterincomeandassets owned by agricultural or fishery

Increasedfamilies (BDT)Note: Indicators and reference values for the sub-project shall be set as sample figures when conducting thebaseline survey.

2) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Based on the conditions below, the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of thisproject was calculated as 15.4%.
EIRR:
Cost: Project costs (excluding taxes), O&M and administration cost
Benefits: Economic effects brought by reducing flood damage, lowering vehicle
driving costs, spoilage reduction in perishable product, increasing income, etc.
Project Life: 30 years for flood prevention measures, and 20 years for ruralinfrastructure development

FIRR will not be calculated.
(2) Qualitative benefits
Higher standard of living for people in the haor area and vitalization of the localeconomy
5． External Risk Factors and Risk Control
Delay in civil engineering work due to natural disasters such as floods
6． Evaluation Results and Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Evaluation Results of Similar Past Projects
It was learned in the ex-post evaluation of the Agusan River Basin Development
Program for the Philippines that insufficient maintenance systems for flood control
facilities and financial sources had a negative impact on the sustainability of theproject. Another lesson learned was the importance of: (1) clarifying roles andresponsibilities; (2) securing a sufficient maintenance budget; and (3) increasing thesense of ownership among beneficiaries.
(2) Lessons for the Project
The project provides support based on the lessons learned above to ensure
appropriate allocation of the maintenance budget, especially for prioritized areas
based on the policy formulated by the executing agencies through consultationservices. At the same time, the project aims to support the formulation of amaintenance plan and manuals, enhance maintenance systems, and build thecapacity of beneficiaries and the executing agencies.
7． Plans for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators for Future Evaluation:1) Largest area flooded for the year (ha)2) Highest water level for the year at reference point (m)3) Status of water management group formation
4) Annual average traffic volume per day (cars/year)
5) Average hours required6) Number of stores
7) Trade volume8) Sales (store/BDT)9) Boro rice crop (ton/ha)10) Diversity in agricultural products produced11) Fish catch (ton/ha)
12) Diversity in fish species
13) Average household income and assets owned by agricultural or fisheryfamilies (BDT)14) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) (%)(2) Timing of Next Evaluation: Two years after completion