Open symposium

Decarbonized Society from Low Carbon Society

Thailand Energy System Transition toDecarbonized Society in 2050
TKP Gardencity Premium Akihabara, TokyoNovember 20, 2019
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
THAMMASAT University

Japan & Thailand signed emissions-offset agreement inNov 2015

Japan signed an agreement with Thailand as part of a programme
to offset its emissions in exchange for clean-energy and energysaving technologies

Thailand’s PM Delivered National Climate Pledge at Paris Summit
Economy-wide emissions in BAU“The 20% is a goal to be achieved by thecountry's resources alone while theadditional 5% will require international
support in terms of finance, knowhowand technology”

3Climate Change Policies and Mitigation in THAILANDBANGKOK, 30 October 2019

MOEJ

ONEP

SCG

SIIT-TU
SIIT-TU

TGO
TGO

TGO

ONEP

ONEP

FTI

IGES

JAPAN
EMBASSYBANGKOK

ONEP

MHIR

TGO

NIES

Nontha Buri

Chiang Mai

CITY

4CITY

Decarbonized Society from Low Carbon Society
SETTING TARGET

STEP1
Where is society going?

STEP2
How do we get there?

Decarbonized
2050

ROADMAP?

We need Roadmap to achieve Target

TRENDS OF GHG EMISSIONSIN ENERGY SECTOR
Energy Industries
Transport
Solid fuels

Manufacturing Industries and Construction
OtherOil&natural gas

300,000

GHG Emissions (GgCO2eq)

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

Manufacturing
Transport
Power

02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Second BUR

6PRESENT POLICIES AND TECHNOLOGIES OF THAILAND
RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAN (AEDP 2018)
RE Electricity(MW)AEDP 2015
TargetDifference
2018New Target
2015

AEDP 2018

Existing

PDP2018

Solar PV

6,000

2,849

12,725

15,574

9,574

Biomass

5,570

2,290

3,496

5,786216

Wind

3,002

1,504

1,4852,989

13

Biogas (Waste)

600

382

546928328

Municipal Solid Waste

500500

400

900

400

Industrial waste

50314475

25

Mini-hydro376

188-188

188

2,906

2,918-

2,918

12680---680

Large hydro (EGAT)
Biogas (Crop)Total
RE electricity (%)
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2019

19,68420%

10,662
10%

18,69620%

29,358
33%

9,674

13%
7

PRESENT POLICIES AND TECHNOLOGIES OF THAILAND
ENERGY EFFICIENCY PLAN 2015
EE Measures
Measure for designated factory and buildings
management
Measure for building standard/building codes
Measure for energy efficiency standard and labeling
Measure on compulsory energy efficiency resource
standards (EERS) for energy production
Measure for financial support
Measure on the use of LED
Measure on energy conservation in the transportation
sectorMeasure for promotion of education, research,technology development on energy conservation
Measure on personnel development in energy
conservation fields
Measure to create public awareness on energy
conservation
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2019

Energy Saving (ktoe)
Target EEP 2015
5,156
1,166
4,150
500

9,524
991
30,213-8NDC Roadmap: INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

2030

NDC Roadmap: TRANSPORT SECTOR

2030

NDC Roadmap: RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

2030

THAILAND’S GHG EMISSION AND
MITIGATION: NDC 2030
600

20%

GHGmitigation

GHG Emission (MtCO2eq)

500
400
300
555.0

439.4

200

237.4
100

GHG mitigation- Power 24 MtCO2eq- Industry 43 MtCO2eq- Transport 41 MtCO2eq- Residential 4 MtCO2eq- Commercial 1 MtCO2eq- IPPU 0.6 MtCO2eq-Waste 2 MtCO2eq
Total GHG mitigation

115.6 MtCO2eq

02005

2030

2030NDCThailand’s GHG Emission Profile under LTS Scenarios
GHG Emission Profile under BAU, Emission & Technology
Constraint Scenarios Including Carbon Tax

LTS Scenarios with Carbon TaxScenario

Availability ofTechnology

GHG Emission Constraint
2030
2050
BAUAllEmission Constraint Scenarios including Carbon Tax of
US$100/tCO2eq
CT100-2DS-20
All
20%
60%
CT100-2DS-25
All
25%
60%
CT100-B2DS-20
All
20%
90%
CT100-B2DS-25
All
25%
90%
Emission & Technology Constraint Scenarios including Carbon Tax of
US$100/tCO2eq•A higher GHG emission constraint scenarios of 20%-90% & 25%-90%
during 2030 to 2050 along with the imposition of carbon tax of
US$100/tCO2e forces the selection of BECCS & Nuclear Power leading
to negative emissions.

CT100-2DS-20woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

20%60%

CT100-2DS-25woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

25%

60%

CT100-B2DS-20woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

20%

90%

CT100-B2DS-25woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

25%

90%

•

In the absence of BECCS & Nuclear Power, theGHG emissions would be higher & positive
during 2035 to 2050.

Conclusions: THAILAND Long-term strategy• Possible keeping net carbon emissions can be achieved during 2030-2050.
• Net Zero CO2 emissions strategies for THAILAND• CCS technologies (fossil-based fuel plants integrated with CCS and BECCS)• Stringent RE target• CO2 emission taxes (US$500-US$1000 per tCO2)• Climate change awareness• Capacity building for organizations, government offices and communities
Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

12345

CCS & BECCS

Stringent RE

CO2 emission
taxes

Climatechangeawareness

Capacitybuilding• Electricity
generation• Manufacturi
ng industry• Electricity
generation• Vehicle

14