CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 (and 2021)

Key findings of WGIII in the Fifth Asssessment Reportand plans for the Sixth AR
Diana Urge-Vorsatz
Vice Chair,WGIII

Name

Tokyo, November 29, 2017

Role

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports© Ocean/Corbis

Director, Center for Climate Change and Systainable Energy Policy
Central European University

GHG emissions growth has accelerated
despite reduction efforts.

2

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades.

Based on Figure 1.3

3

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Developments since AR5: global emissions have been levelfor 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)

Limiting warming to 2°C is possible but involves
substantial technological, economic andinstitutional challenges

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires
moving away from business as usual.

Based on Figure 6.7

6

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Lower ambition mitigation goals require similar reductionsof GHG emissions.

~3°C

Based on Figure 6.7

7

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

The view to 2050 and beyond

Source: UNEP

Source: Rogelj et al, 2015

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Mitigation cost estimates vary, but do notstrongly affect global GDP growth.

9Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Estimates for mitigation costs show moderate
effect on development
Reaching 450ppm CO2eq entails consumption losses of 1.7% (1%-4%)

by 2030, 3.4% (2% to 6%) by 2050 and 4.8% (3%-11%) by 2100 relative
to baseline (which grows between 300% to 900% over the course of the
century).

This is equivalent to a reduction in consumption growth over the 21st

century by about 0.06 (0.04-0.14) percentage points a year (relative toannualized consumption growth that is between 1.6% and 3% per year).

Cost estimates exlude benefits of mitigation (reduced impacts fromclimate change). They also exclude other benefits (e.g. improvements
for local air quality).

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

The elements of the solution:
Focus on energy end-use and cities

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Accounting for indirect emissions has
key implications on mitigation strategy!

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Baseline Scenarios: Direct vs. Indirect Emission Accounting

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Source: Volker Krey, using IPCC AR5 Figure SPM.10, TS.15 Source: Figure TS.15

today2035

A substantial share ofemission increase in thenext few decades will
come from cities

 Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions fromglobal energy use
 Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
 By 2050 urban population is to increase by up to 3 billion
 Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place indeveloping country cities This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity andresponsibility
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

A broad array of opportunities exist to keepthese emissions at bay while maintaining or
increasing service levels

 Urban design and form
 Energy-efficient transport systems

 Encouraging non-motorized and public transport Efficient, small vehicles

 Energy efficient buildings
 low-energy architecture High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment
 High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)

 Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency
equipment using energy contributing to CC
 Hi eff cookstoves Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products – affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials
 Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy

 Carbon storage in construction materials?
 Lifestyle, behavior, culture
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Barcelona vs atlanta

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

16

Urban planning
can make a verysignificant
difference inurban emissions

Source: UN 2014 as cited by
Fischedick, CFCC 2015

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

17

LDV transport demand is partly basedon urban density

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Increasing urban density is a necessary but not sufficientcondition for lowering urban emissions

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, courtesy of Karen Seto

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Infrastructure and urban form are strongly
linked and lock‐in patterns of land use,transport and housing use, and behavior

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Mitigation opportunities through urban
planning:
1. increasing accessibility
2. increasing connectivity
3. increasing land use mix
4. increasing transit options
5. increasing and co-locating employment andresidential densities
6. increasing green space and other carbon sinks
7. Increasing white and light-colored surfaces
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Example of savings by reconstruction
Before reconstruction

over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle-90%

15 kWh/(m²a)

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz,
EEBW2006
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

55.000 Passive Houses exist in
28 European member countries

SwedenUK

Belgium

Bulgaria

Denmark

Germany

Estonia

FinlandFranceGreeceIrelandItaly

LatviaLithunia

Croatia

Czech Rep.

Hungaria

Luxembourg

Netherlands

PolandPortugal

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Austria

CyprusFirst retrofit toPassive House Plus

Office building Technical University Vienna
Architect: Arch. DI Gerhard Kratochwil
Building physics: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
Owner: BIG Bundesimmobilien gesmbH

Treated floor area: 7,322 m2= 80,000 ft²
Heating demand: 14 kWh/m2a = 4.4 kBTU/ft²aHeat load:
9 W/m²= 2.85 BTU/ft²
Primary energy: 56 kWh/m²a = 17.75 kBTU/ft²a

Primary Energy kWh/(m²a)

800
600

803

- 94%

400
200
0

56
Beforeretrofit

61

After retrofit Renewable
EnergyPasssive houses spread around the world
Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHIWorking Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

World’s largest Passive House city district

Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt
116 ha, 1,700 flats
Passive House as Standard for urban development

www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.deBelgian Energy provider Elia

Brussels mandated Passive House in January 2015

High rise renovation to full PH

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Brussels Environnement MinistryNew York City may go PassiveIncreased efficiency has been a very
powerful tool to keep emission andenergy demand increases at bay for
decadesWorking Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Per capita residential and commercial
energy use, 1990 - 2010

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Per capita final energy use in IEA regions, 1980
and 2010

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

There are several mitigation options
that can also contribute towards
development goals“Overall, the potential for co‐benefits forenergy end‐use measures outweigh thepotential
for adverse side‐effects, whereas the evidence
suggests this may not be the case for all energy
supply and AFOLU measures.” (SPM 4.1)

How mitigation options can go hand-inhand with development goals (cobenefits) Air quality improvement – indoor and outdoor Health – e.g. through indoor and outdoor air quality improvement,
reduced thermal stress, increased activity
 Energy security
 Efficiency increases access to energy services
 fuel poverty could be eliminated Better employment and economic opportunities through accessivity
 Reduced congestion Others: biodiversity conservation, water availability, food security,
income distribution, improved productivity, efficiency of the taxation
system, labour supply and employment, urban sprawl, and thesustainability of the growth of developing countries
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Attributable burden of diseases due toindoor exposures in 2010 in EU26

The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction throughwell operated ventilation systems

Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls

Plans for the Sixth Assessment Report Cycle

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Outlook to AR6
 Key new developments since AR5: Paris Agreement,
Sustainable Development Goals
 How to integrate these with the climate agenda?
 Sustainable development is now the key framing concept forAR6 products
 Special Report on 1.5C climate change how to bridge the emissions gap? More emphasis on
SRM, CDR, and other disruptive innovations
 While the technological solutions, economic costs,
implementation pathways and governance options are
more or less well understood, the human-social aspects
have been less covered by IPCC before
 Among others,AR6 will have more emphasis on thesocial science aspects
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Main Products during the AR6 cycle
1) The Special Reports
Special Report on Global Warmingof 1.5°C (SR15)

Special Report on Ocean
and Cryosphere (SROCC)

Approval Sept 2018
Special Report on Climate
Change and Land (SRCCL)
Approval Sept 2019

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Agreed outline of WG III AR6
Framing (1 chapter)
1. Introduction and framing
High-level assessment of emission trends,
drivers and pathways (3 chapters)
2. Emissions trends and drivers
3. Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals
4. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to midterm

Sectoral chapters (8 chapters)

5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
6: Energy systems
9. Buildings
7. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses 10. Transport
8. Urban systems and other settlements
11. Industry
12. Cross sectoral perspectives

Institutional drivers (2 chapters)
13. National and sub-national policies and institutions
14. International cooperation
Financial and technological drivers (2 chapters)
15. Investment and finance
16. Innovation, technology development and transfer
Synthesis (1 chapter)
17. Accelerating the transitionWorking
in theGroup
contextofIII contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
and
Sixth
Assessment
Reportssustainable development

Set up sustainable development
as key framing concept
Balancing sources andsinks/warming levels
NDCs, emissions peaking, midcentury long-term low greenhousegas emission development
strategies
Orients sectors to human needs
The sectoral core: maps on toinventories
Responses not captured by
sectoral framing
Institutions, policies andcooperation
Financial flows + technologicalinnovation

Synthesis sustainable
development in different
geographical scales

Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspectsof mitigation
 Mitigation, sustainable development and the SDGs (human needs, access toservices, and affordability)
 Patterns of development and indicators of wellbeing
 Sustainable consumption and production
 Culture, social norms, practices and behavioural changes for lower resource
requirements
 Sharing economy, collaborative consumption, community energy Implications of information and communication technologies for mitigation
opportunities taking account of social change Circular economy (maximising material and resource efficiency, closing loops):
and insights from life cycle assessment and material flow analysis
 Social acceptability of supply and demand solutions
 Leapfrogging, capacity for change, feasible rates of change and lock-ins
 Identifying actors, their roles and relationships
 Impacts of non-mitigation policies (welfare, housing, land use, employment, etc.)
 Policies facilitating behavioural and lifestyle change
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Chapter 12: cross-sectoral perspectives
 Summary of sectoral costs and potentials
 Comparison of sectoral costs and potentials with integrated assessments Summary of sectoral co-benefits and trade-offs
 Aspects of GHG removal techniques not covered in chapters 6 to 11 (landbased, ocean based, direct air capture): status, costs, potentials,
governance, risks and impacts, co-benefits, trade-offs and spill-over effects,
and their role within mitigation pathways
 Impacts, risks and opportunities from large-scale land-based mitigation:
land, water, food security; use of shared resources; management andgovernance Emissions intensity of food systems and mitigation opportunities acrossthe food system (production, supply chain, demand and consumption)
including emerging food technologies
 Policies related to food system and food security including food waste andfood demand Links to adaptation and sustainable development (including co-benefits,
synergies and trade-offs)
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Working Group III contribution to theSource: Grain 2011: file:///C:/Users/USER/Downloads/grainIPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
4357-food-and-climate-change-the-forgotten-link.pdf

The IPCC needs your expertise.
How can you contribute?

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Author teams – CLAs, LAs, REs
Coordinating Lead Authors(CLAs)
Lead Authors (LAs)Review Editors (REs)

Contributing Authors (CA)

Chapter Scientists (CS)

Usually more experienced scientists andpractitioners• CLAs and LAs develop the chapter content• REs ensure comments from the review
process are taken into consideration by theteam
Selected following a call for nominations• Proposed by IPCC focal Points fromgovernments and observer organisations,and the IPCC Bureau• Selected by the Bureau of the relevant
IPCC Working Group or Task ForceCall for nominations are published on the
IPCC website:
http://ipcc.ch/Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Author teams – CAs
Coordinating Lead Authors(CLAs)
Lead Authors (LAs)Review Editors (REs)

Prepare technical information in the form of
text, graphs or data

Contributing Authors (CA)Contributions• Solicited by LAs• Unsolicited contributions also
encouraged

Chapter Scientists (CS)Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Author teams – CS
Coordinating Lead Authors(CLAs)
Scientific assistants who provide support to theauthor teams• Technical aspects including cross-checking
between findings in different parts of thereport• Additional fact-checking• Reference management

Lead Authors (LAs)Review Editors (REs)

Contributing Authors (CA)

Chapter Scientists (CS)

Recruited• Directly by CLAs
• Througha call issued by the TSUs
http://wg1.ipcc.ch/
http://www.ipccwg2.awi.de/
http://www.ipccwg3.ac.uk/
http://www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Products and Important Milestones
SR15

SRCCL

SROCC

TFI MR

Call for nominations

AR6
Oct 17First Order Draft

Jul 17

May 18Apr 18Dec 17

Second Order Draft

Jan 18

Oct 18

Nov 18Jul 18

Final Government Review

May 18Apr 19Jun 19Jan 19Approval Plenary

Oct 18Aug 19Sept 19

May 19Other Activities
Cities and Climate Change Science Conference

Mar 18Expert meeting on SLCF

May 18Expert meeting on Regional Aspects

May 18Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

www.citiesipcc.org

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

How to Contribute?
2017
SR15

FOD – July

2018

2019

SOD
– Jan
Approval – Oct

SRCCL

FOD
SOD

– May
– Oct

Approval – Aug

SROCC

FOD
SOD

– Apr
– Nov

Approval – Sept

Outreach Activities

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Thank you for your attention

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
Vice Chair, WGIII, IPCC

www.mitigation2014.org

www.ipcc.ch

Email: vorsatzd@ceu.edu

Supplementary slides

Key Message 4: Infrastructure build-up over the next
few decades will result in significant emissions
Total CO2 emissions (per capita) needed
to build up today’s infrastructure

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Key Message 4: Infrastructure build-up over the next
few decades will result in significant emissions

Future CO2 emissions if developing
countries catch up to average developed
country level.

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Key Message 5: Large mitigation opportunities exist where
urban form is not locked in, but often where there arelimited financial and institutional capacities

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Key Message 6: Thousands of cities are undertaking
climate action plans, but their impact on urban emissions
is uncertain

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Summary
1. Urban areas contribute considerably to global primary energy demandand energy-related CO2 emissions.
2. The feasibility of spatial planning instruments for climate change
mitigation depends highly upon each city’s financial and governancecapability.
3. Urban planning mitigation options include:
1. increasing accessibility
2. increasing connectivity
3. increasing land use mix
4. increasing transit options
5. increasing and co-locating employment and residential densities
6. increasing green space and other carbon sinks

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

1. The building sector is responsible for ahigh share of emissions
In 2010, the building sector accounted for117 EJ or 32% of global final energy
25% of energy‐related CO2 emissions (9.2 Gt
CO2e)
51% of global electricity consumption
a significant amount of F‐gas emissions: up
to a third of all such emissions
app. one-third of black carbon emissions

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment ReportsElectricity and Heat

Allocation of Electricity/Heat Generation Emissions to End-use
Sectors for 2010

Source: Figure A.II.2

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Historical development of emissions bysector (fig 5.18)(note: direct emissions only)

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

Importance of building sector emissions
In developed countries most future building
emissions can be affected by retrofits….
…while in developing countries through new
construction.

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

The Lock-in Risk:
global heating and cooling final energy in
two scenarios
80
70
60

Lock-in Effect 80%

46%

EJ

50

34%

40
30
20
10
0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Moderate Efficiency

2030

2035

Deep Efficiency

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports

2040

2045

2050

The lock-in risk: heating and coolingenergy demand by two scenarios

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports