Key findings from the WG III 5thAssessment Report and plans for AR6Jim Skea
Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III
IPCC outreach meeting
Shinagawa Hotel, Tokyo
14 November 2017

Mitigation in the Paris Agreement: Temperature,emissions and sinks• “This Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat ofclimate change…. including by holding the increase in the global averagetemperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industriallevels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts ofclimate change”• “Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationallydetermined contributions that it intends to achieve”• The CoP….shall periodically take stock of the implementation of theAgreement to assess collective progress towards achieving the purpose of theAgreement and its long-term goals (the “global stocktake”)• Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon
as possible….. so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in thesecond half of this century,

Mitigation in the Paris Agreement:
Enabling elements• In the context of sustainable development• Developed country Parties should continue to take the lead in
mobilizing climate finance from a wider variety of sources,
instruments and channels• Parties share a long-term vision on the importance of fully
realizing technology development and transfer in order to improve
resilience to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions• Parties….shall strengthen cooperative action on technology
development and transfer• A technology framework is hereby established to provide
overarching guidance to the work of the Technology Mechanism inpromoting and facilitating enhanced and transfer……

Progress in restricting global warming to 1.5 - 2°C above
pre-industrial levels by the end of this century

Source: UNEPThe view to 2050 and beyond

Source: UNEP

Source: Rogelj et al, 2015

Outline of AR5 WG-III Report
17Introductory Chapter
Integrated Risk and Uncertainty
Assessment of Climate Change
Response Policies
Social, Economic and EthicalConcepts and Methods
Sustainable Development andEquity
Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
Assessing Transformation
Pathways
Energy Systems8Transport

9Buildings

2345
610 Industry
11

Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Use (AFOLU)

12

Human Settlements, Infrastructureand Spatial Planning

13International Cooperation:
Agreements and Instruments

14

Regional Development andCooperation

15

National and Sub-National Policies
and Institutions

16

Cross-cutting Investment andFinance Issues

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving awayfrom the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal

~3 C

Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

The sooner we act, the easier and the cheaper it will be to reach agiven temperature goal

Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

Emission patterns would need to change throughout the economy

Balancing sinks and sources and long-term low greenhouse gas
emission development strategies (Article 4)

Source: Derived
from AR5 database

Note: One illustrative scenario with a 65% probability of getting below 2 C warmingMitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today

Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changes
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable➜

Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6 - 3%)➜This translates into delayed and not forgone growth➜

Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced
climate change➜

Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks toeconomic growth➜

Opportunities for economic diversification

Source: AR5 WGI and WGII SPMs

Main Products during the AR6 cycle
1) The Special Reports
Special Report on Global Warming of1.5°C (SR15)

Special Report on Ocean andCryosphere (SROCC)

Approval Sept 2018
Special Report on Climate
Change and Land (SRCCL)
Approval Sept 2019

Background to SR15
2015 - COP21 Paris agreement: the UNFCCC invited the IPCC todevelop a Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global
greenhouse gas emission pathways.
2016-43rd Session of the IPCC (Nairobi, Kenya): The IPCC accepted
the UNFCCC’s invitation.

Outline of SR15
Special Report outline agreed at 44th session of the IPCC (October 2016)
Summary for Policy Makers
Chapter 1:
Chapter 2:
Chapter 3:
Chapter 4:
Chapter 5:

Framing and context (15 pages)
Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context
of sustainable development (40 pages)
Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and humansystems (60 pages)
Strengthening and implementing the global response to
the threat of climate change (50 pages)
Sustainable development, poverty eradication andreducing inequalities (20 pages)

Boxes, Case Studies and Cross-Cutting Themes
FAQs

Main Products during the AR6 cycle2) A methodology report (inventories)3) Three Working Group reports4) A Synthesis ReportWG-III AR6 Bureau

Government questionnaire:
priority topics for WG III
Policy relevant information on the Paris Agreement goals (well below 2°C, efforts toachieve 1.5°C, climate neutrality); anticipate the global stocktake; transformation
pathways to meet 2°C and 1.5°C; social + financial + technological + sectoral +regional implications of pathways

19

Geo-engineering, including limits, negative emissions

7

The role of short-lived climate pollutants and other benefits

6

Options for decarbonization pathways, including solutions from business

6Links between climate change and SDGs

5

Technological, economic, social, and institutional barriers to realizing mitigation
targets and benefits from carbon offset mechanisms

4

Opportunities, challenges, barriers and co-benefits of climate change mitigation
policies and measures3

Impacts on land-use change, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity andecosystem functions and services

3Aspirations of new Bureau
Enhance participation of developing country experts
Deepen engagement between Working Groups
Strengthen links between the insights obtained from high level integrated
assessment modelling and the concrete steps required to mitigate climate change
Increase policy relevance and neutrality by incorporating inputs from business,
industry and finance
Enhance the relevance for policymakers charged with following through decisions
made under the Framework Convention
Connect to domestic challenges such as job creation, economic diversification,
health, innovation and technology development, energy access and poverty
alleviation

Challenges for AR6AR5 achieved a systemic view of mitigation opportunities. But there is a need toinclude a wider range of approaches in the assessment, including national andregional modelling as well as global models.
Challenges for AR6:
• To assess the linkages between high-level climate stabilization goals andscenarios on the one hand and the practical steps needed in the short- andmedium-term to make the realisation of these goals possible• To make greater use of social science disciplines, in addition to economics,
especially for gaining insight into issues related to lifestyle, behaviour,
consumption, technological choices and socio-technical transitions.
• To link climate change mitigation better to other agreed policy goals nationallyand internationally (e.g. the Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs).

AR6 scoping Meeting (1-5 May 2017)• Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting.
• Outline emerged over the course of the week through interactive series ofdiscussions.

To better inform the scoping of AR6, an expert meeting was held in advanceof the meeting to address some of the specific challenges identified for AR6.

Outline approval: 46th session of the IPCC in Montreal(September 2017)

Agreed outline of WG III AR6
Framing (1 chapter)
1. Introduction and framing
High-level assessment of emission trends, drivers
and pathways (3 chapters)
2. Emissions trends and drivers
3. Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals
4. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term
Sectoral chapters (8 chapters)
5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
6: Energy systems
9. Buildings
7. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses
10. Transport
8. Urban systems and other settlements
11. Industry
12. Cross sectoral perspectives
Institutional drivers (2 chapters)
13. National and sub-national policies and institutions
14. International cooperation
Financial and technological drivers (2 chapters)
15. Investment and finance
16. Innovation, technology development and transfer
Synthesis (1 chapter)
17. Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable
development

Set up sustainable development as
key framing concept
Balancing sources and sinks/warming
levels
NDCs, emissions peaking, midcentury long-term low greenhousegas emission development strategies
Orients sectors to human needs
The sectoral core: maps on toinventories
Responses not captured by sectoral
framing
Institutions, policies and cooperation
Financial flows + technologicalinnovation

Synthesis sustainable development indifferent geographical scales

Chapter 6: Energy systems

Sectoralchapters• Energy services, energy systems and energy sector, integrations with other systems(including food supply system, buildings, transportation, industrial systems)• Energy resources (fossil and non-fossil) and their regional distribution• Global and regional new trends and drivers• Policies and measures and other regulatory frameworks; and supply and demand systems• Fugitive emissions and non-CO2 emissions• Global and regional new trends for electricity and low carbon energy supply systems,
including deployment and cost aspects.
• Smart energy systems, decentralized systems and the integration of the supply and demand• Energy efficiency technologies and measures• Mitigation options (including CCS), practices and behavioral aspects (including public
perception and social acceptance)• Interconnection, storage, infrastructure and lock-in• The role of energy systems in long-term mitigation pathways• Bridging long-term targets with short and mid-term policies• Sectoral policies and goals (including feed-in tariffs, renewables obligations and others)• Mainstreaming climate into energy policy

Timeline for WGIII contribution to AR66-10 Sept

Panel consideration of outline for AR6

15 Sept – 27 Oct 2017

Call for CLA/LA/RE Nominations

29-30 Jan 2018

Decision on selection of CLA/LA/RE

1-5 Apr 2019

1st Lead Author Meeting (LAM1)

30 Sep – 4 Oct 2019

2nd Lead Author Meeting (LAM2)

9 Dec 19 – 31 Jan 20

1st Order Draft (FOD) Expert Review

30 Mar – 3 Apr 3 2020

3rd Lead Author Meeting (LAM3)

1 Jun – 24 Jul 2020

2nd Order Draft (SOD) Expert Review

19-23 Oct 2020

4th Lead Author Meeting (LAM4)

1 Feb – 26 Mar 2021

FGD Government Review of SPM

12-14 Jul 2021

IPCC acceptance/adoption/approval

Author Drafting and Review
Selection

1-5 May 2017

Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability
and Climate Stabilization Scenarios
AR6 Scoping Meeting

Scoping

26-28 April 2017

AR6 ApprovalBalance….843 authors nominated bycountries + 48 by observers
RegionGender

IPCC experience
LeadNoSome
Unknown
YesCountries nominating

53 individuals

Thank you for your attention
Jim Skea
Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III

www.ipcc.ch
www.ipcc-wg3.ac.uk@IPCC_CH#AR6