BOOK CONTENTS

NIES, Tsukuba
March 13, 2004

Book Chapters
Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application
Chapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia
Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories
Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road AheadChapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Climate Policy Modeling
1.2 Integrated Modeling - Linking Science with Policy
1.3 The AIM Paradigm
1.4 AIM Modeling Approach
1.5 AIM Structure1.6 AIM Scope
1.7 Overview of AIM Applications for India
1.8 AIM Inputs in National and International Assessments

Chapter 1. Introduction
Classification of energy-environment models

Energy Environment Models

Top-Down

Partial/General
Equilibrium

Bottom-Up

Macro-Optimization

Technology Assessment

Energy System Optimization
Single-Country

GlobalSector Optimization

Local

Integrated

Accounting
systemGIS

Emissions
Inventory

Chapter 1. Introduction
AIM family of models

0510

Ur

2030

AIM/Enduse

RuralCo Indumm stryerc
e

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1000

Agric TransportultureAverage cost for CO22
reduction, yuan/t-C

AIM/Emissionba n
Mt-CO 215202530

35510204040

Rateofofaccumulated
accumulated CO(%)
2 reduction
RateCO
2 reduction (%)

AIM/Bottom-up
AIM/Energy-Economics
AIM/Land-Equilibrium

AIM/Local
Inventory activity

Recycling
SocietyFossil Int ensiveSociety

4040

Without
Counter 30
M easures

30

2007

20750 ppm
1010550 ppm
0020 00 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
Glob al CO2 emissions and reduction f or
stabilizat ion
20

AIM/Country

Year

0.0

EUGDP c hange (%)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

AIM/Impact

0.1
0-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6USA

Mitiga tion of GDP loss
0.2

GDP GDloss
P losfroms fromreference
reference casecase(Trillion yen at 19 95 p rices)(Trillionyen at 1995 prices)

AIM/CGE-Linkage
AIM/Ecosystem

AIM/CGE (Energy)

AIM/Material
GD P los s after mitigation
Mitigation fro m green consu mp tion
Mitigation from tax ation policy
Mitigation fromtechnological impro vement
Mitigation fromenviron mental in vestment
CO 22 andGDP loss due to CO
solid waste constraints
without countermeas ures

2010

AIM/GlobalJapan>21

CO 2 emission in 2030

AIM/Emission-Linkage

Gt-C<3AIM/Land
AIM/Water
AIM/Agriculture
AIM/Vegetation
AIM/Health etc.

FSU

GDP
changeKyoto
with
USAUSA
GDP
changebyby
thetheKyoto
withUSAand without
and without

12

AIM/Trend

Change in potential productivity of rice

10-5008

AIM/Air

402032
2025
2015
2005
1995
Cambodia
BhutanLaos
Solomon Islands
Kiribati

2Year

Bangladesh
Vanuatu
Papua New Guinea
Pakistan
Nepal
MyanmarVietnam
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Samoa
Indonesia
Tajikistan
Philippines
India
FijiKyrgyz Republic
French Polynesia
Tonga
China
ThailandIran
New Zealand
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
MalaysiaJapan
Turkmenistan
Nauru
TaiwanAustraliaKorea, DemKorea, Rep
Kazakhstan
PalauSingapore
Brunei

6CO 2 emission per capita(t-C/capita)

AIM family

AIM/Database

0+500( kg/ha)

AIM/Climate
Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

1.4

Chapter 1. Introduction
AIM Cooperation in Asia-Pacific region

SNU
ERI KEIIGSNRR
IIM

AIT
UPM

NIES
Kyoto Univ.

JAPAN
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES)
Kyoto University
CHINA
Energy Research Institute (ERI)
Institute of Geographical Scienceand Natural Resources Research(IGSNRR)
INDIA
Indian Institute of Management(IIM)
KOREA
Seoul National University (SNU)
Korea Environment Institute (KEI)
THAILAND
Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIA
University Putra Malaysia (UPM)Chapter 1. Introduction
Component models in AIM applied to India
AIM/Enduse

AIM/Local

AIM/Material

AIM/Trend

AIM/Database

Area of application
Analysis of GHG
emissions mitigation andlocal air pollution control
Estimating and analyzing
future emissions from LPS
and area sources

Estimates economic andenvironmental effects ofenvironmental investment,
mainly focusing on solid
waste management.
Estimation of future
economic, energy, andenviron mental trends

Supporting AIM models

Brief descriptionA bottom-up technology selection
model within a country’s energy,
environment and economic system
Bottom-up linear programming
model, which selects a combinationof technologies with least cost whilesatisfying demand and supply
constraints.
A top-down macro economic model
based on computable generalequilibrium (CGE) framework.

Location in this book
Chapter 2 andChapter 3

An econometric model whichcalculates relationships between
each parameter by regression
method and extrapolates these
relationships for future projections.
Contains various types of datasets
including statistics, outputs by AIM,
outputs by other modelers, andestimates by internationalorganizations and governments

Chapter 6

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 7

Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
2.1 AIM/Enduse model structure
2.2 Indian scenarios
2.3 Data development
2.4 Demand projections
2.5 Sectoral process representation in AIM
2.6 Global and Indian energy intensity and emission trendsChapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
Matrix of Indian Scenarios

Market integration
Centralization

FragmentedIA1IA2

ChinaPre-reform(Mixed Economy Model)

DecentralizationGovernanceIntegrated

IB1

IB2

Sustainable
Development

Self Reliance ModelChapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
GDP and Population Projection for Indian Scenarios

1600

1000
800
IB1600IA2400IB220002000

1500
Population (millions)

GDP (Index 2000 = 100)

IA1

IA2
IB2
IA1
IB1

1400
1300
1200
1100
1000

2010
IA12020
IA2

IB12030
IB220012011
IA12021
IA2

IB12031
IB2

Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
Sectoral GVA in Reference Scenario (IA2)5045
Commercial

35

Industry

3025
Agriculture

20
15105Industry

Commercial

Transport

2030

2026

2022

2018201420102006

2002

1998

1994

1990

1986

1982

1978

1974

0Transport1970

Share of GDP (%)

40AgricultureChapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
Energy intensity of various industries (PJ/million tons) in (IA2) ScenarioIndustry
Steel
CementFertilizers
Brick
Pulp and paper
Textiles
Sugar
Chlor alkali
Aluminium

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
55.4 48.3 42.9 37.6 32.3 29.9 27.9 26.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
46.1 36.2 37.6 34.7 34.1 30.8 29.9 28.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1 2.10
2.020.4 19.6 19.1 18.7 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.8
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
14.1 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.7
114.4 113.9 109.7 107.7 104.9 102.0 99.3 96.5

Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database
Future intensity trends in India (IA2 Scenario)
400

Indexed (2000 = 100)

350
300
250
200
150
100
500
2000

2010
GDP/ Capita

Energy/ GDP2020
Carbon/ Energy

2030
Carbon/ Capita

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
3.1 Aggregate national results
3.2 Analysis for select End-use sectors
3.3 Non-CO2 GHG analysis
3.4 Interaction between models
3.5 Conclusions

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
Fuel wise Primary Energy Consumption under IA2 scenario
25000

Peta Joules

20000

15000

10000

5000

02000

2005
Coal

2010
Gas

Diesel

2015
Kerosene

Fuel Oil

2020
Gasoline

2025
ATF

Biomass2030

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
Fuel-wise CO2 Emissions under IA2 scenario
3000

2500

Mt-CO22000

1500

1000

500

02000

2005

Coal2010

Gas

HSD

2015

Kerosene Fuel Oil2020

Gasoline

ATF

2025

Electricity

2030

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
Electricity Generation Mix under IA2 scenario

2000
1800
1600

Billion KWh

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
20002000

2005

2010
Coal

2015
Gas

OilNuclear

2020
HydroRenewable

20252030

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application
Future methane and N2O emissions under alternate scenarios

1.030

0.8
N2O (Million tons)

CH4 (Million tons)

35

25
20
15
100.6

0.4

0.2

500.0

2000

2010
IA12020
IA2IB12030
IB2

2000

2010
IA12020
IA2IB12030
IB2

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Model Structure
4.3 AIM/Local Database System
4.4 Data Development for the AIM/Local model in India
4.5 Indian Emissions Analysis
4.6 CO2 Emission Mitigation and Co-benefits
4.7 Urban Applications
4.8 Interaction with other models (AIM/End use and AIM/Air Model)
4.9 Policy insights and conclusions

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application

CO2 emissions (Mt-CO2 )

3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
2000

2010

IA12020

IA2IB12030

IB2Per capita CO 2 emissions (T-CO 2 )Growth in CO2 emissions and Per capita CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000

2010

IA12020

IA2IB12030

IB2

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional Spread of Large Point Sources

PowerPaper

Steel

Sugar

CementCaustic soda

Fertilizer

OthersBC

Regional Details

DA

E

A Golden corridor
B

Delhi

C

Northeast India coal mine

D East India coal mineF

E

Central India coal mine

F

Southern region

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
LPS Coverage

SectorEnergyIndustrial
processes

Total

Sub-sectors
Power (coal & Oil)Power (natural gas)
Steel
Cement *Fertilizer
Paper
Sugar
Caustic Soda
H2SO4 manufacturing
Aluminium (Al)
Copper ore smelting (Cu)Lead ore smelting (Pb)
Zinc ore smelting (Zn)

LPS covered
2000 2010 2020

2030

82
121185313328
19633853383

150
2329
123
62
48
30
26
68
5
1185588111
171798
41
38
28
21
64
4
964458

131
20
23110
52
43
29
23
66
510
75524

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario

2000

2030

Million Tons
05101520
30

Million Tons
<33-6
6-9
9 - 1212 - 15
15 - 18
18 - 21> 21

40

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030)

IA1IB1Million Tons
0510152030

Million Tons
<33-66-99 - 12
12 - 15
15 - 18
18 - 21> 21

40

IB2

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional distribution of SO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario

2030

2000

Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15
< 0.20>Million Tons
< 0.010.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.0530.053-0.060> 0.060

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional distribution of CH4 emissions for IA2 Scenario

2000

2030

Thousand Ton CH4

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Ahmedabad District Location and Talukas

23.4 o N
Ahmedabad
Municipal Area
Viramgam
SanandDehgamDaskroi
Ahmedabad City

DholkaDhandhuka
21.9 o N
71.6 o E

73.0 o E

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application
Regional distribution of SO2 emissions in Ahmedabad Districtfor Reference (IA2) scenario

20002030

SO2 Thousand Ton

SO2 Thousand Ton

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application

5.1 Model Structure
5.2 Data Development
5.3 Applications for India
5.4 Results
5.5 Conclusions

Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application
Solid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios(Index Year 2000 = 1)

3
IA1IA2
2.5

IB1
IB2

2

1.5

12000

201020202030

Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application
Cumulative CO2 emissions from India (2000-2030)

1412MtC

1086420
ReferenceConstraintRecyclingInnovation

Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application

0Billion $ (Constant 2000)-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90Constraint

Recycling

Innovation

2030

20252020

2015

2010

Change in GDP over Reference (IA2) ScenarioChapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Structure of the AIM/Trend model
6.3 AIM/Trend Model Applications
6.4 Policy Implications
6.5 Conclusion

Chapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia
Future demographic, economic, energy and environment trends for Indiaand several other South Asian countries
Aim/Trend linked to bottom-up model to develop South Asian regionalenergy cooperation scenarios
Country AIM/TrendBangladesh
BhutanIndia
Maldives
Nepal
Sri Lanka• Primary Energy
Supply• Emission trend• EconomicIndicators

South AsiaRegional
ModelChapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia

200

50160

4012030EJ

G DP (1995 Billion US $)Projections for South Asian Countries

80

2040

100
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0
1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

2020

2025

2030

Year
Coal

GDP trend for Bangladesh

2015

Gas

Oil

Biomass

Hydro & Other Renewables

Nuclear

Total Primary energy supply for India

Chapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia
Projections for South Asian Countries (Cont..)

8040

603025PJ

Milloin Tonnes of CO2

35

2040

15201050
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

YearCarbon emission trend for Nepal

2030

01995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

YearOil Hydro

Electricity generation mix for SrilankaChapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia
Policy Implications and Conclusion• Analysis indicates a definite trend of increasing energy imports
among countries in the region.
• Increasing dependence on external sources can be reduced
through regional cooperation• Supporting robust trade in energy has far-reaching social,economic, energy and environmental security benefits for theregion.
• The trend model has emerged as a robust tool for individual
country analysis and for analyzing regional scenarios.

Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories

7.1 Strategic data requirements
7.2 Data structure
7.3 Functional databases
7.4 Indian emissions inventory: A case study in data management
7.5 Conclusions

Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories
Outline of the AIM/Database
AIM/CGEStrategyAIM/ComfAIMmonInterfaceStakeholders

MoOutput

Input

AIM/Materialldufeo

A

IMMo/Codule

/CGE

DB

Statistics, etc.

Statistics etc.

Modou lefA

IMdMoo/CDB

IMa/M

Statistics, etc.

i alter

OutputOutputDB

onmmouleAIM/
Module ofCommon
AIM/Common Database
DB, etc.

on
mm
Aof

Module of AIM/TrendofuleoModule of AIM/Climateul e

Mod

Input

Module of AIM/Common DBModOutput

Statistics, etc.

Module of AIM/Common DB

Input

AIM/Enduse

IMfA/Es simi

Input

Statistics, etc.

on

AIM/
Primary
Database

Module ofAIM/CommonDB

Statistics, etc.

AIM/DatabaseModu leMo
dofStatistics etc.

OutputAIM/Trend

Input

AIM/ClimateAIM

ul e/Cofom

AI

mon

Statistics, etc.

M

/ ImpaDBct

OutputInput

AIM/Impact

Statistics, etc.

Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories
Sectoral Contribution of CO2 emissions

45%
35%

35%
2%

55%
13%

10%

Power

Industry

Road

Other transport

Other sectors

Other industries
SteelCement

Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories
Sectoral Contribution of SO2 emissions

7%

46%

10%
42%

14%
36%
1%

3% 6%8%27%

Power sector IndustryAgriculture
RoadOthers
Other transport

Other industries
SteelFertilizer
CementIndustry (non-energy SO2)

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead

8.1 Indian assessments and policy insights
8.2 Contribution to modeling capacity building by AIM cooperation
8.3 Innovative applications and new model development
8.4 Road aheadChapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead• What are the projected CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?
• What are the projected per capita CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?
• What are the projected CO2 emission intensities under alternate scenarios for India?
• What are the projected non-CO2 GHG emissions under alternate scenarios for India?
• What are the projected SO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?
• What are linkages and disjoints between GHG and local emissions?
• What is the sectoral CO2 mitigation potential and flexibility of technological options in the short,medium and long-term?
• What other flexibilities are potentially possible for mitigation?
• What are the cost implications of carbon mitigation?
• What is the linkage between sustainable development and carbon mitigation?
• What is the linkage between local environmental concerns and global emissions?
• What are the implications of regional energy cooperation in South Asia?
• How does modeling help to answer some of the above questions?

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead

3200

8.0

2800

7.5

2030

2400

SO 2 em issions (M t)

CO 2 emissions (Mt-CO 2 )Answering policy questions…

2000
1600
1200
800

7.0
6.5

2020

6.0

2015
2010

5.5
5.0
4.5

12

IA1

3

IA2

IB1

4IB24.003000

6000

9000

GDP per capita (PPP US$)IA1IA2IB1IB212000

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead
Answering policy questions….

20

60
Coal
Natural Gas
Renewable
Biomass

50

Oil
Hydro
Nuclear18
CarbonElectricity

GDP

SO2

1440

12In d ex

E x a Jo u leEnergy1630

108
Past Trends

20

Future Projections

64

10

200
2000

2005

2010

2015
Years

2020

2025

2030

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead
Managing SO2 Emissions: Case of LPS

LPS spread in different urban centers
LPS

NumberShare of all-India SO2emissions (%) in1995

PowerPlants

9445

Steel117Cement

85

5Fertilizer

316Sugar

28

0.09

Paper

330.043

Total282

63.52

Need for a national policy as well as local-specific policies

LPS in India

PowerSteel and Cement

Industrial Processes

Fossil Fuel Extraction

OthersChapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road AheadEmission Cap-and-Trade vis-à-vis Technology Policy

45% cost- savings over 30 years
in the emissions cap and trade
instrument

Marginal Costs (Rs/ton of SO2)

Marginal costs for SO2 mitigation

SO2 emissions (MT)SO2 Emissions Cap Trajectory
43210
1995

2000

2010

2020

2030

Year

8000
6000

Annual average cost savings overa 30 year period is Rs. 3600
million ($80 million)

4000
2000
0
2005

2015

Year2030

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead

Road Ahead— Data Development— Close interface with policymakers— Capacity building— Focused Modeling— Evolving Modeling Paradigms— Modeling Protocols— Regional and Global Networking

APPRECIATION

Our thanks toAIM Team members from all countries
NIESJapanese Policymakers
Indian Policymakers
andMorita-san’s family