Outline of this seminar
Toshihiko Masui (National Institute for Environmental Studies and Tokyo Institute of Technology)

This seminar is planned to introduce the preliminary results on DDPP (Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project)and its simulation results on Japan, which were introduced at the Climate Summit 2014. And the analysis on
DDPP in Japan has been implemented under the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund ofthe Ministry of the Environment, Japan, 2-1402 "Research on Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies to achieve
Long-term Reduction Targets of Greenhouse Gases in Japan and the World," and this seminar is treated as ascience & technology dialogue with citizens for the program 2-1402.
In “outline of this seminar,” the previous discussion about the GHG mitigation target in Japan will be explained
from the viewpoint of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) involvement. Based on the previous discussions
and today’s presentations, we want to enhance the discussion about the post-2020 target in Japan.
Time
1992.5

Activities in Japan

Activities in the world
Adoption of UNFCCC.
COP3 in Kyoto. Adoption of Kyoto Protocol. ■During 1st commitment period (2008-12), 6% reduction compared1997.12with those in base year.
Invitation to "Cool Earth 50" by then Prime Minister Abe. ●Halving
2007.5.24
global GHG by 2050 compared with present level.
G8 Summit at Heiligrndamm: we willconsider seriously the decisions ...
2007.6.8
which include at least a halving of
global emissions by 2050.
Discussion of GHG mitigation target at Mid-term Target Committee,
2008.11-2009.4
Cabinet office.
Then Prime Minister Aso announced GHG emission reduction target in2009.6.11
2020. ■15% reduction of domestic emission compared to 2005 level.
Address by then Prime Minister Hatoyama at the 64th session of the general assembly of the UN. ■GHG
2009.9emissions in 2020 will be reduced by 25% compared to 1990 level under fair and effective international framework.
2009.10-12
Discussion at Task force meeting on climate change.
Discussion at Investigative commission on mid-/long-term roadmap to2009.12-2010.3 combat climate change; How to realize 25% reduction by reconsidering
assumptions and countermeasures
Based on "Copenhagen Accord", each country submitted mitigation target/action plan. ■25% reduction, which is2010.1premised on the establishment of a fair and effective international framework in which all major economies
participate and on agreement by those economies on ambitious targets.
Results from Sub-committee on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap, Central
2010.4-2011.3 Environment Council showed the society in Japan achieving 25% GHG
reduction in 2020 compared to 1990.
Cancun Agreements at COP16:"Establish clear goals and a timely
2010.11-12
schedule for reducing GHG emissions
over time to keep the global averagetemperature rise below two degrees."
East Japan great earthquake and TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power
2011.3.11
plant accident.
Discussion at Sub-committee on countermeasures/policies post 2013,2011.7Central Environment Council.
The 4th Environmental Basic Plan. ■GHG emissions in 2050 will be
2012.4.27
reduced by 80%.
Options for Energy and the Environment by The Energy and Environment
Council. ■In the low economic growth case, GHG emissions in 2020 will
be reduced by 5-9% compared to 1990 level. In the high economic growth
2012.9case, 2-5% reduction. ■GHG emissions in 2030 will be reduced by about
20% compared to 1990 level. ■GHG emissions in 2050 will be reduced by80%.
Then Environment Minister Ishihara, announced the new emission target in2013.11
Japan at COP19. ■3.8 % reduction in 2020 compared to the 2005 level.
2015.3
Each country will submit the post-2020 target.
2015.12COP21 in Paris. The post-2020 target will be decided?

Deep Decarbonization Pathways in JapanKen Oshiro3, Mikiko Kainuma 4, Toshihiko Masui 2, Go Hibino 1
Report Seminar of Deeply Decarbonization Pathways Project
Kuramae Hall, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Oct. 7 2014
4.

BackgroundTo achieve the political GHG mitigation target of reducing 80% emissions compared to the 1990
level by 2050 with lower nuclear dependence, it is necessary to reduce energy consumption byreducing energy service demands and by increasing the use of energy saving technologies, and toincrease the share of renewable energies. Japan’s Country Team (NIES & MHIR) has assessed
the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Japan using AIM/Enduse model.
5.

Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Japan

In Japan’s illustrative deep decarbonization scenario, the long-term GHG emission reduction
target is achieved by large scale energy demand reduction in end-use sector and decarbonizationin power generation sector including deployment of CCS.
Total final energy consumption in 2050 decreases substantially and accounts for approximately
50% of the 2010 level. Share of renewable energy and CCS account for more than 50% of total
primary energy supply in 2050 despite almost complete phase out of nuclear power.
Renewable energy reaches approximately 59% of total electricity generation. Due to large-scale
deployment of renewable energy and natural gas equipped with CCS, carbon intensity ofelectricity falls to nearly zero in 2050. In end-use sectors, CO2 emissions are substantially reducedby large-scale energy efficiency, electrification and diffusion of renewable energies.
In an alternative pathway without nuclear power, an 80% emission reduction in 2050 is still
feasible with additional deployment of renewable energy and natural gas equipped with CCS.
However, higher carbon intensity is experienced during the transition period where coal and gas
without CCS compensates the gap caused by the phase-out of nuclear.
Achieving long-term emission reduction target with less CCS deployment proves to be still
feasible with substantial increase of renewable energy, particularly solar PV and wind power. In
the scenario, the share of variable renewable energies account for about 63% in electricity
generation in 2050, hence imposing a further challenge for integration into the electricity system.
6.

Conclusions

With large scale diffusion of low-carbon technologies, Japan’s long term GHG emission reduction
is feasible, even if availability nuclear power and/or CCS is limited, although many challenges
remain to achieve deep decarbonization pathway in Japan.

34Mizuho Information & Research Institute (MHIR)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)A Climate Target towards 2030
NGO Perspectives
Naoyuki Yamagishi
Leader, Climate and Energy GroupWWF Japan

A Climate Target towards 2030
IPCC AR5 again shows rapidly increasing dangers of climate change. At the same time, in orderto keep the global temperature increase below 2 ºC compared to the pre-industrial level as agreed
internationally, the current efforts are vastly insufficient and countries around the world need toenhance their action to have the global emissions trend peak and decline as soon as possible. The
COP19 agreement last year invites Parties to communicate their intended nationally determined
contributions (INDCs) by March 2015 (for those ready to do so). Although there is no explicit
agreement on the timeframe of INDCs, Parties are generally expected to present their INDCs
towards either 2025 or 2030. Japan also has to start its preparation as soon as possible to show
leadership in climate action.

CAN-Japan’s Proposal
Climate Action Network Japan (CAN-Japan), of which WWF Japan is also a member, launched
its proposal for Japanese climate mitigation target towards 2030 on 12 September 2014.
CAN-Japan proposes a target to “reduce GHG emissions by 40-50% by 2030 below 1990 (41-51%below 2010)” for Japan.
CAN-Japan came up with this target proposal based on consideration from the following threeperspectives. The first is how much GHG reduction is needed globally. The second is what would
be an “equitable” level of emission reduction for Japan in global joint efforts to mitigate climatechange. There are numerous approaches to equity and thus we refer to a review study on this topic.
The third is emission reduction potential for Japan. For this, we refer to a few NGO scenario studies
including WWF’s.

WWF Japan’s Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan
In order to achieve ambitious emission reduction such as our target proposal,, it is imperative toincrease the share of renewables massively as well as to improve energy efficiency dramatically. In
the period between 2011 and 2013, WWF Japan has conducted four-part energy scenario study
which examines energy efficiency measures, renewable potentials, costs and power-grid capability
respectively. The results have collectively shown 100% renewable future is possible in Japan by2050.

Toward achieving the 2 °C goal: With a focus on carbon budget and resource efficiency
Takeshi Kuramochi, PhD
Climate and Energy Area, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

This presentation highlights two key elements to achieve the global 2 °C target, i.e., long‐termcarbon budget management and the enhanced resource efficiency.
With regard to the carbon budget management, results from the recently published paper onJapan’s “fair” carbon budget consistent with the 2 °C target between 1990 and 2100 are presented.
The global carbon budget for 1990‐2100 that would likely achieve the 2 °C target was allocatedacross countries based on two frequently referred effort‐sharing approaches based on converging
per capita emissions in the long‐term. The calculated carbon budgets were compared with Japan’s
projected cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in case of adhering to the existing national
mitigation targets committed for 2020 and 2050 (“Nationally Committed Amount”: NCA). The
remaining carbon budgets for Japan under two effort‐sharing approaches were found to be about
50%‐60% of the amount the country would emit up to 2100 under the reference NCA. Moreover,
the average emissions reduction rate for 2020‐2050 based on the government’s current mitigation
targets was found to be similar to that required under one effort‐sharing approach with immediate
actions from 2014. If Japan is to consider the carbon budget concept, strengthening the current
2020 target, rather than adhering to the current targets, would allow mitigation rates to remain
within a more realistic range and would limit the need to buy international offsets.
With regard to the enhanced resource efficiency, preliminary results on the Japanese iron and steel
industry from the research project funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, arepresented (Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 1RF‐1301). Firstly, it ispresented that the strengthened global climate mitigation actions will lead to enhanced steel scrap
recovery worldwide. Secondly, it is presented that Japan can increase its use of recycled steel scrap
without harming the capacity to produce high quality products. In Japan, the discussions on CO2emissions reduction in the iron and steel industry were often formulated around the share ofrecycled steel scrap‐based electric furnace steelmaking, which consumes much less energy thanthe iron ore‐based integrated steelmaking. The analysis finds that Japan can increase the steel
scrap consumption equivalent to the currently exported amount in the integrated steelmaking
process at possibly acceptable costs without prohibitively increasing the contamination level in the
final steel product.

Japanʼs Opportunity for Shifting to the New Society Era through Achieving Deep
Decarbonization Pathways
Shuichi Ashina (National Institute for Environmental Studies)Japan has a target of GHG reduction in 2050 as an 80% reduction from 1990
level. After the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 and Fukushima
Nuclear Power Plant Accident, Japan’s energy policy forced to change fromconventional way of thinking, which relies on nuclear power as one of key energy
sources both for stable energy supply and GHG reductions. Low Carbon Society
Scenario, or Deep Decarbonization Pathways also faces revision by the accident anddomestic/international situation change.
New Low Carbon Society scenarios and roadmaps for achieving deep
decarbonization Pathways in Japan need to include new viewpoints in it, such as behavior
change for energy saving, rapid acceleration of renewable energy diffusion, economic
growth through taking low carbon action and dematerialization of lifestyle.
The 2-1402 project aims to establish methodology for designing visions/scenarios
and its implementation strategies for achieving Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Japanby using integrated assessment models. As for the new socio-economic scenarios, theproject put emphasis not only on industrial structure but also on lifestyle, energy
consumption behavior and energy-intensive material production and stock. Through theproject, we will propose concrete strategy for achieving Japan Low Carbon Society by
2050 and determine mid-term (esp. 2030) GHG reduction target in line with long-termtarget of 80% reduction from 1990 level, and will propose new growth patterns andinnovation strategies for Japan in order to achieve the Deep Decarbonization Pathways.

1,600
Theme 2: Global Mitigation
Pathways Analysis Based on
Shared Society Pathways

1,200
1,000

GHG
Reduction Targetin 2030

Socio-Economic Analysisfor Low Carbon Society

800

80% Reduction from1990 level

GHG
Emissions [Mt-CO2]
温室効果ガス排出量[百万トンCO2]

1,400

Theme 4: Analysis on
Lifestyle and Energy
consumption Behaviour
under the LCS

600400

Theme 5: Analysis on
Material Production andStock20001990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Japanʼs Opportunity for Shifting to the New Society Era through Achieving Deep Decarbonization Pathways•Identifying Socio-Economic Scenarios for Achieving Deep Decarbonization•Designing Desirable GHG Mitigation Pathways after 2020 for Japan and the World•
Determining Future Visions for Industrial Structure considering Green Growth Actions.
•Depicting New Growth Strategy for Low Carbon Society for Opening Technology and Society Innovations.