The challenge of policy
relevance
Progress with the IPCC
Working Group III Report

IPCC Symposium

Jim Skea

Toranomon Hills ForumTokyoCo-chair

30 January 2020

WG III IPCC

SPM3b|3Characteristics of four illustrative modelpathways

System transitions consistent with 1.5°C warming“Rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in allsystems”• A range of technologies and behavioural changes• Renewables supply 70-85% of electricity in 2050

• Coal declines steeply, ~zero in electricity by 2050
• Oil and especially gas persist longer – gas use rises by2050 in some pathways• Deep emissions cuts in transport and buildings• Transitions in global and regional land use in all pathways,
but their scale depends on the mitigation portfolio• Urban and infrastructure system transitions imply
changes in land and urban planning practices
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

4

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

Bridget Besaw / Aurora Photos•All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or
no overshoot use CDR•The larger and longer the overshoot, the greater the reliance on CDR
later in the century•BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) features in mostscenarios but is avoided in a few•CDR at large scale could have significant impacts on land, foodand water security, ecosystems and biodiversity•

Some AFOLU-related CDR measures such as restoration of naturalecosystems and soil carbon sequestration could improvebiodiversity, soil quality, and local food security
5Special Report on Climate Change and Landwww.ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL

Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E)©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org

6

SPM Figure 3A

We looked at 28 different
response options that can be
implemented with limited orno competition for land.
Almost all response options
have a positive effect onmitigation, adaptation,desertification, landdegradation and foodsecurity.

77

SPM Figure 3B

We looked closely at 4land-based response
options with potential
implications for landchallenges.
Their potential
contribution toadaptation and mitigation
was also analysed.

8

SPM Figure 3 – 39

When implemented using best-practice, the response option
almost always has a positive impact on land challenges.

WG III Co-chairs’ ambitions for AR6• To assess the linkages between high-level climate stabilization goals
and scenarios on the one hand and the practical steps needed in theshort- and medium-term to make the realisation of these goals
possible• To make greater use of social science disciplines, in addition toeconomics, especially for gaining insight into issues related tolifestyle, behaviour, consumption, technological choices and sociotechnical transitions.
• To link climate change mitigation better to other agreed policy goals
nationally and internationally (e.g. the Sustainable Development
Goals - SDGs).

Chapter 1 Introduction and Framing
Chapter 2: Emissions trends and drivers
Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals
Chapter 4: Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term
Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation

Chapter 6: Energy systems
Chapter 7: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
Chapter 8: Urban systems and other settlements
Chapter 9: Buildings
Chapter 10: TransportChapter 11: Industry
Chapter 12: Cross sectoral perspectives

The outline of the IPCC
Working Group III
report to be publishedin 2021

Chapter 13: National and sub-national policies and institutions
Chapter 14: International cooperation
Chapter 15: Investment and finance
Chapter 16: Innovation, technology development and transfer
Chapter 17: Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable development

Annex C: Scenarios and modelling methods

In the context of sustainable development
Chapter 1: Introduction and Framing
Chapter 17: Accelerating the transition in thecontext of sustainable development

The past and the future: a helicopter perspectiveChapter 2:
Chapter 3:
Chapter 4:

Emissions trends and drivers
Mitigation pathways compatible withlong-term goals
Mitigation and development pathways
in the near- to mid-term
Annex C: Scenarios and modelling
methods

Sectors and systems
Chapter 6:
Chapter 7:
Chapter 8:
Chapter 9:
Chapter 10:
Chapter 11:
Chapter 12:

Energy systems
Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
Urban systems and other settlements
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Cross sectoral perspectives

Enabling climate change mitigation
Chapter 13: National and sub-national policies
and institutions
Chapter 14: International cooperation
Chapter 15: Investment and finance
Chapter 16: Innovation, technology development
and transfer

And don’t forget people……
Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation

We’re people too!

Chapter 2: Emission trends and drivers
1.

Past and present trends of territorial emissions and sinks on an annual and cumulative basis (by region,sector, GHG, etc.), including estimates of uncertainty

2.

Past and present trends of consumption-based emissions on an annual and cumulative basis (by region,sector, GHG, etc.), including estimates of uncertainty

3.

Socio-economic and demographic drivers (e.g. GDP, population, international trade) and their trends

4.

Overview of sectoral emission drivers and their trends

5.

Climate and non-climate policies and measures at different scales and their impacts on missions

6.

Technological choices and changes and impacts of technological breakthroughs

7.

Emissions associated with existing and planned long-lived infrastructure

8.

Behavioral choices and lifestyles at individual and societal levels

Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
1.

Mitigation, sustainable development and the SDGs (human needs, access to services, and affordability)

2.

Patterns of development and indicators of wellbeing

3.

Sustainable consumption and production

4.

Linking services with demand, sectors, systems - implications for mitigation and sustainable development

5.

Culture, social norms, practices and behavioural changes for lower resource requirements

6.

Sharing economy, collaborative consumption, community energy

7.

Implications of information and communication technologies for mitigation opportunities taking accountof social change

8.

Circular economy (maximising material and resource efficiency, closing loops): insights from life cycle
assessment and material flow analysis

9.

Social acceptability of supply and demand solutions

10. Leapfrogging, capacity for change, feasible rates of change and lock-ins
11. Identifying actors, their roles and relationships
12. Impacts of non-mitigation policies (welfare, housing, land use, employment, etc.)
13. Policies facilitating behavioural and lifestyle change
14. Case studies and regional specificities

Chapter 6: Energy systems
1.

Energy services, energy systems and energy sector, integrations with other systems (including foodsupply system, buildings, transportation, industrial systems)

2.

Energy resources (fossil and non-fossil) and their regional distribution

3.

Global and regional new trends and drivers

4.

Policies and measures and other regulatory frameworks; and supply and demand systems

5.

Fugitive emissions and non-CO2 emissions

6.

Global and regional new trends for electricity and low carbon energy supply systems, including
deployment and cost aspects.

7.

Smart energy systems, decentralized systems and the integration of the supply and demand

8.

Energy efficiency technologies and measures

9.

Mitigation options (including CCS), practices and behavioral aspects (including public perception
and social acceptance)

10. Interconnection, storage, infrastructure and lock-in

11. The role of energy systems in long-term mitigation pathways
12. Bridging long-term targets with short and mid-term policies
13. Sectoral policies and goals (including feed-in tariffs, renewables obligations and others)
14. Mainstreaming climate into energy policy

Chapter 16: Innovation, technology development and transfer
1.
2.

Key findings from AR5 and recent developments
Role of innovation, technology development, diffusion and transfer in contributing to sustainable
development and the aims of the Paris Agreement, including mitigation pathways
3. Innovation and technology as systemic issues, evaluating literature on cases of technologicalinnovation systems and innovation policy
4. Assessment of international institutions partnerships and cooperative approaches relevant totechnology, innovation and R&D
5. Capacity for transformative change, including capabilities for innovation, engineering, governance,
R&D cooperation and deployment incentives
6. Assessment of experiences with accelerating technological change through innovation policy forclimate change at the national level, including successful case studies
7. Specific challenges in emerging economies and least-developed countries, e.g. SIDS and land-lockedcountries
8. Acceptability and social inclusion in decision-making, communication and information diffusion
9. Characterisation and implications of new disruptive technologies
10. Links to adaptation and sustainable development (including co-benefits, synergies and trade-offs)

Key cross-cutting issues• Scenarios• Metrics• Temperature• Net emissions• Carbon budgets• Land and integrated assessment models• “Feasibility”

Cross-Working
Group approach toscenarios

MetricsTemperature• Global mean surface temperature (GMST)• Used by WMO for Statement on State of the Global Climate• Based on observations, used by WG II and WG I observation community• Global surface air temperature (GSAT)• Metric used in most models, used by WG I modellers and WG III• Has risen faster than GMST

Net emissions• Model based emission estimates diverge from UNFCCC inventories by ~4 GtCO2e per annum• Reasons are understood:• Scope of ‘managed land’• Treatment of natural fluxes on managed land

Carbon budgets• Net zero CO2 or net zero GHG• SR1.5: “The remaining carbon budget is defined here as cumulative CO2 emissions from the start of 2018 until thetime of net-zero global emissions”• Mitigation requirements for limiting warming to specific levels can be quantified using a carbon budget that relates
cumulative CO2 emissions to global mean temperature increase• Net cumulative emissions over the 21st century

Land and integrated assessment modelling• Integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely heavily on the large scale CO2removal (CDR) to meet high levels of climate ambitiono Assumed availability of land may not fully reflect social/food security/ ecosystemservice constraints
o Relatively high social discount rates favour expensive, negative emission response
options deployed in the long-term• Lack of explicit treatment of many “nature-based solutions” in mostmodels

“Feasibility”• The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C treated “feasibility”
in two ways
o It established a conceptual framework based on six dimensions, or sets ofenabling conditionso It applied that framework to individual response options• Feasibility dimensions from SR1.5oooooo

GeophysicalEnvironmental
Technical
Economic
Socio-political
Institutional• The WG III AR6 challenge is to apply the feasibility frameworkat the system level.
• Emerging “just transition” concept (COP24)WG III TimelineImpacts of previous IPCC Assessment Reports
FAR (1990)

led toUNFCCC

SAR (1995)

input forKyoto Protocol

focused attention on

Impacts of climatechange and needfor adaptation

AR4 (2007)

input forDecision on 2ºC limit;
basis for post Kyoto
Protocol agreement

AR5 (2013/2014)

input for

Paris Agreement

TAR (2001)

UNFCCC Timeline
2020• Subsidiary Bodies meeting: Bonn, June 2020
• Conference of the Parties (COP 26), Glasgow, November 2020
2020-2022• Second Periodic Review• Adequacy of and overall progress toward achieving the long-term global goal in the light of theultimate objective of the Convention• Starts 2020; three Structured Expert Dialogues SB 53-55; concludes COP 28 2022
2023
• Conference of the Parties (COP 29)• First Global Stocktake (GST)
2023 onwards• IPCC Seventh Assessment Cycle• Second Global Stocktake, 2028

Thank you for your attention!
www.ipcc.ch

www.ipcc-wg3.ac.uk