Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate8th AIM International Workshop

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by
Changing Global Climate

2003. 03. 13
Korea Impact Project Team
- Jeon, Seong-Woo(KEI)- Jung, Hui-Cheul(KEI)- Lee, Dong-Kun(SNU)-0-Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
ClimateCONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Data Preparation
4. Data Analysis
5. Results and Proposals
6. Further Studies-1-

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

1. Introduction
1) Backgrounds

 All creatures on the earth are threatened by climatic change, and thisdangerous situation drives a study for predictable effects all over the world.
 They say that forest eco-system would be the most serious damaged
part, therefore development of the model which is applicable to theinternal level is needed.
2) Objectives

 To Prepare primary data and conduct the modeling of the forest
distribution assessment using AIM impact model To assess the change in economical value of the forest through climatechange-2-Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

2. Study Area
1) Study Area

 The Korean Peninsula isseparated into 4 small regions
regarding climate and forest
type.
- longitude : 120°~ 135°
- latitude : 30°~ 45°2) Weather Station

 GHCN- Temperature : 197stations- Precipitation : 119stations
 Meteorological Administration

Weather station : Prepcipitation
Weather station : Temperature- 80stations-3-

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
1) Outline

 IPCC Data Distribution Center SRES Senarios
 GCM- MPIfM(ECHAM4/OPYC3)- HCCPR(HadCM3)- CSIRO(CSIRO-Mk2)- NCAR(NCAR-CSM, NCAR-PCM)- CCCma(CGCM2)- CCSR/NIES(CCSR/NIES AGCM+CCSR OGCM)-4-

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
2) SRES Senarios

 IPCC recommends SRES scenario improving the limitations of IS92
scenario
Storyline

Summary

A1· Very rapid economic growth rate
· Global population that peaks in mid-century anddeclines thereafter· Rapid introduction of new and more efficienttechnologies (A1FI – fossil intensive, A1T-non-fossil
energy sources, A1B-balance across all sources)

A2· A very heterogeneous world· Self-reliance and preservation of local identities· Continuously increasing global population· Regionally oriented economic development

B1· Rapid changes in economic structures toward a
service and information economy· Reductions in material intensity· Introduction of clean and resource-efficienttechnologies

B2· emphasis on local solutions to economic, social andenvironmental sustainability· Continuously increasing global population at a rate
lower than A2· Intermediate levels of economic development-5-Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
3) GCM
CenterMax Plank Institute
Fur Meteorologie
Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction
and Research
Australia’s Common
Wealth Scientific andIndustrial Research
Organization
National Centre for
Atmospheric Research
Canadian Center for
Climate Modeling andAnalysisCenter for Climate
Research Studies(CCSR)
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies(NIES)

Acronym

Model

SRES Scenario Runs

MPIfM

ECHAM4/
OPYC3

A2

B2

1990-2100

HCCPR

HadCM3

A2

B2

1950-2099

CSIRO

CSIRO-Mk2

B2

1990-2100

A1

A2

B1

Time Period

NCAR-CSM

A2

B2

2000-2099

NCAR-PCM

A2

B2

A2:1980-2099
B2:2000-2099

CCCma

CGCM2

A2

B2

1900-2100

CCSR/NIESCCSR/NIES
AGCM+CCSR OGCM

B2

1890-2100

NCAR

-6-

A1 A1F1 A1T

A2

B1Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
4) Temperature Interpolation

 Temperature lapse rate by altitude and Spatial Interpolation Model using
Observatory level(Nalder and Wein,1998; Yoon, Jin-Il, 2000)|Γ|=0.0068+0.0015*COS{0.072(Day-60)}

 Monthly mean Temperature Interpolation, The Korean Peninsula(m/C)
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0.0080 0.0083 0.0083 0.0079 0.0073 0.0065 0.0058 0.0054 0.0055 0.0058 0.0065 0.0073

 Spatial Interpolation using Inverse Distance Squared Weighting(IDSW)-7-

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
5) Impact Assessment Model Bio-Climatic Classification using Holdridge Model(39 Classes)
 Applying Bio-Temperature and Yearly Mean Precipitation< Climate >Temp. Increase

GCM clibration

GCM results(Δtemp,Δprecipitation)

calculation

Current Climate(temp, precipitation)

Future Temperature, precipitation(monthly)< Holdridge >Bio-temp.(C)Total Precipi.(mm/yr)

Noramization bio-temp and precipi.

Holdridge classification

Other Information

Future BioBio-Climatic Vegetation Classifi.
Classifi.

-8-

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate3. Data Preparation
6) Estimating adaptability

 Considering moving velocity of Trees (Davis,1989) Forest adaptation scenario by moving velocity (7 Classes)
Change Pattern
Effects on vegetation
1990

A

2100
No Change(b) Invasion of alien species by bio-climaticchangeInvasion of alien
species

A→B

침입가능

B

목본식물의
The moving
110년간 이동가능거리
distanceof trees for(a) No change to current forest distributions

Forested
Areas

Invasion ofalien species(c) No invasion of alien species, but bio-climatic
zones remain no-change

110 years

No invasion of alien

Deforestation

species침입불가능B(e) Changes to forested areas by the invasion of
NonForested
Areas< possible movement of trees >(Munesue Y. and Takahashi K.,2000)(d) Deforestation or desertification

Change toForested Areas

No Change-9-alien species(f) No invasion of alien species while existing
forest remains(g) Not applicable in this study

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

4. Data Preparation
7) Estimation of economic loss National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis Model 16 Bio-region, estimating the economic value of 17 eco-system services
 Estimating the value of Eco-system by an Willingness to Pay forenvironment improvement
Classification

Area(Mha)

Eco. value($/ha/yr)

World(a billionU.S.$/yr)

Tropical forest

1,900

2,007

3,817

Warm temp., subtropical

2,955

302

894

glassland, grazing land

3,898

232

906

Ref. : Costanza, R. et al. 1997. The Value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital, NATURE,
387:253-260.

- 10 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

4. Data Analysis
1) Process of Impact analysis< process of impact analysis >Climate Change Scenario< process of impact analysis model >GCM-runs

SRES Ascii Data

ImportSRES

Holdridge classification

Forest impact assessment
GIS system
1. visualization
2. Estimation of area

Estimate econmic value change

Forest moving
Velocity

AIM-model

Ascii Reading(unit conversion)

Davis(1989)

Interpolation(spline,IDW)

Assessment model
development

NCEAS model

Input Climate Treatment(IPCC-DDC)

GCM Informationy
GCM nameyModel typey
Parameter UnityReading order

IDRISI Writing(include masking)Result Anlysis- 11 -

InterpolationySplineyInverse Distance Weighted(IDW)GCM OrganizeryTemperature(degC), Precipitation(mm/mon)yCurrent climate( 30yr average),yBase climate( 1990yr)yTarget climate(2020,2030,2050,2100yr)yScenario selector(SRES,IS92)y
Masking Water

Vegetation Impact Analysis
Holdridge classificationy
40 Classes (0-39)y
BioTemperature(degC)yTotal precipitation(mm/yr)
Vegetation Moving Possibilityy
8 cases scenario (0-6)
yBase vegetationyTarget vegetationyForest moving velocity(0.25km/yr,0.5km/yr,1.0km/yr,2.0km/yr)

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

4. Data Analysis
2) Current climateUsing 30 Yearly mean data(1969-1999)< Temp. distribution >< Temp. distribution considering
temperature lapse rate >- 12 -< Prep. distribution >Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
1) Predicted results

 Mean temp. change by scenario(A1, A2 scenario)
A1

A

B

C

D

A2

C

D

1.81℃
1.81℃ 1.95 ℃ 2.22 ℃ 2.47 ℃

DJF

2.18 ℃ 2.18 ℃ 2.21 ℃ 2.37 ℃

JJA

2.20℃
2.20℃ 2.32 ℃ 2.50 ℃ 2.64 ℃

JJA

2.20 ℃ 2.19 ℃ 2.24 ℃ 2.30 ℃

3.0

A1 Scenario

A2 Scenario

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

2.5

2.0

Mean Temp. Change(degC)

Mean Temp. Change(degC)

B

DJF

3.0

2.5

A

1.5

1.0

0.5

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.5

-0.5
2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

Year

Year

- 13 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
1) Predicted resultsMean temp. change by scenario(B1, B2 scenario)
B1

A

B

C

D

B2

C

D

1.60 ℃ 1.57 ℃ 1.45 ℃ 1.48 ℃

DJF

1.56 ℃ 1.55 ℃ 1.43 ℃ 1.27 ℃

JJA

2.07 ℃ 2.18 ℃ 2.16 ℃ 2.29 ℃

JJA

1.20 ℃ 1.15 ℃ 1.24 ℃ 1.45 ℃

3.0

B1 Scenario

B2 Scenario

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

2.5

2.0

Mean Temp. Change(degC)

Mean Temp. Change(degC)

B

DJF

3.0

2.5

A

1.5

1.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.5

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D-0.5
2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

Year

Year

- 14 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
1) Predicted resultsMean precipitation change by scenario(A1, A2 scenario)
A1

A

B

C

D

A2

A

B

C

D

DJF

3.71%

4.16%

4.22%

5.02%

DJF

3.90%

4.30%

4.17%

4.50%

JJA

3.55%

3.20%

3.11%

2.70%

JJA

3.28%

3.15%

3.03%

2.87%

7.0

A1 Scenario

A2 Scenario

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

6.0

Mean Prep. Change(%)

Mean Prep. Change(%)

6.0

7.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

2.0
2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

Year

Year

- 15 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
1) Predicted resultsMean precipitation change by scenario(B1, B2 scenario)
B1

A

B

C

D

B2

A

B

C

D

DJF

4.13%

4.34%

4.12%

4.51%

DJF

2.87%

3.22%

3.34%

4.09%

JJA

5.26%

4.97%

4.51%

3.76%

JJA

3.19%

3.01%

2.87%

2.80%

7.0

7.0

B1 Scenario
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

6.0

Mean Prep. Change(%)

Mean Prep. Change(%)

6.0

B2 Scenario

5.0

4.0

3.0

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

2.0
2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

2020DJF 2020JJA 2030DJF 2030JJA 2050DJF 2050JJA 2100DJF 2100JJA

Year

Year

- 16 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals2) bio-climatic classification

 2100yr Climatic zone applying HadCM3 model(A2, B2 scenario)- Warm Temperate Moist Forest : Most mid-latitude areas except the Great
Baekdu Ranges and the Southern coastal areas- Cool Temperate Wet Forest : Most areas of the Great Baekdu Ranges andthe Northern parts< current climatic zone >< A2 scenario >- 17 -< B2 scenario >Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
3) Verification of results

Verification of Holdridge classification using warmth index and vegetation
map(The middle part of cold-warm latitudes)< Holdridge classification >< Warmth index classification >- 18 -< Vegetation map(Mongolica) >Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
4) Decrease rate of area

 Decrease rate of temp. and Boreal forest by scenario(A1, B1 scenario)- A 12.15% decline of the boreal and temperate forests of the Southern part underA1 scenario

A1 Scenario

Decrease rate of Temperate & Boreal forest (%)

Decrease rate of Temperate & Boreal forest (%)- A 11.80% decline of the boreal and temperate forests of the Southern part underB1 scenario
30
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
20

10

0

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Year

B1 Scenario
30
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
20

10

0

2000

2020

2040

Year

- 19 -

2060

2080

2100

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
4) Decrease rate of area

 Decrease rate of temp. and Boreal forest by scenarios (A2, B2 scenario)- Scenario A2 : A minimum of 13.91% to a maximum of 62.15% decline of boreal andtemperate forests of the Southern part (a 34.99% decline on average)- Scenario B2 : A minimum of 4.75% to a maximum of 19.19% decline of boreal andtemperate forests of the Southern part (a 19.19% decline on average)
A2 Scenario

Decrease rate of Temperate & Boreal forest (%)

Decrease rate of Temperate & Boreal forest (%)

70

60

50

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

40

30

20

10

B2 Scenario
30
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
20

10

0

0

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Year

2000

2020

2040

Year

- 20 -

2060

2080

2100

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
5) Deforested area(by region)

 Deforested area by scenario(A1, B1 scenario: using CSIRO GCM)
A1

A

B

C

D

B1

stressed 1.90%

1.01%

4.48%

2.58%

deforest 0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

20000

B

C

D

stressed 1.86%

0.68%

2.70%

3.89%

deforest 0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

20000

A1 Scenario (v=0.25km/yr)

B1 Scenario (v=0.25km/yr)

CSIRO

CSIRO

15000

Deforested Area (Km2)Deforested Area (Km2)

A

10000

5000

0

15000

10000

5000

0
Region A

Region B

Region C

Region D

Region A- 21 -

Region B

Region C

Region D

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
5) Deforested area(by region)

 Deforested area by scenario(A2, B2 scenario: using CCCma, CSIRO,
EH4OYPC, HADCM3)
A2

A

B

C

D

B2

stressed 3.13%

0.65%

2.73%

2.66%

deforest 3.28%

3.30%

0.41%

1.31%

20000

C

D

stressed 1.36%

0.70%

1.57%

1.01%

deforest 0.39%

3.30%

0.41%

0.05%

B2 Scenario (v=0.25km/yr)

CCCma
CSIRO
EH4OPYC
HADCM3

Deforested Area (Km2)Deforested Area (Km2)

B

20000

A2 Scenario (v=0.25km/yr)
15000

A

10000

5000

0

15000

CCCma
CSIRO
EH4OPYC
HADCM3

10000

5000

0
Region A

Region B

Region C

Region D

Region A- 22 -

Region B

Region C

Region D

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Result and proposals
6) Deforested area(by moving velocity)

 Deforested area by scenario
and moving velocity

B1 Scenario

A1 Scenario

10000

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

15000

Deforested Area (Km2)

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

15000

Deforested Area (Km2)- Region A and region C are
predicted to be mostimpacted among 4 regions

20000

20000

10000

5000

5000

0

0
0.5Km/yr

0.5Km/yr

1.5Km/yr

1.0Km/yr

1.5Km/yr

2.0Km/yr

2.0Km/yr

20000

20000

B2 Scenario

A2 Scenario

10000

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

15000

Deforested Area (Km2)

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

15000

Deforested Area (Km2)- If tree moving velocity
reaches 1.0Km/yr, no areaof deforestation is predictedunder all 4 scenarios

1.0Km/yr

10000

5000

5000

0

0
0.5Km/yr- 23 -

1.0Km/yr

1.5Km/yr

2.0Km/yr

0.5Km/yr

1.0Km/yr

1.5Km/yr

2.0Km/yrImpact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
7) Distribution of affected area

 2100yr Climatic zone applying HadCM3 model(A2, B2 scenario)
 Moving velocity of Trees(0.25 Km/yr)< A2 scenario >< B2 scenario >- 24 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
8) Estimation of economic loss

 Economic value loss by moving velocity of Trees(US Million$/yr, 1994)
A1

A

B

C

D

Total

B1

A

B

C

D

Total

0.25km

29.62

15.80

69.77

40.15

155.340.25km

28.96

10.53

42.12

60.55

142.16

2.0km

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.0km

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

80

80

B1 Scenario
Economic Value loss ( U.S. million $, 1994)

Economic Value loss ( U.S. million $, 1994)

A1 Scenario
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

60

40

20

0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Forest Moving Velocity(Km/yr)

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

60

40

20

0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Forest Moving Velocity(Km/yr)- 25 -

2.0

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate

5. Results and proposals
8) Estimation of economic loss

 Economic value loss by moving velocity of Trees
A2

A

B

C

D

Total

B2

A

B

C

D

Total

0.25km 269.49 231.69

70.30

129.49 700.97

0.25km

47.49

10.86

24.52

19.35

102.22

2.0km

27.69

88.03

2.0km

26.27

0.00

0.00

3.55

29.82

220.78 221.49

557.99300

80

Economic Value loss ( U.S. million $, 1994)

Economic Value loss ( U.S. million $, 1994)

B2 Scenario
250

200

A2 Scenario
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

150

100

50

Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D

60

40

20

0

0
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Forest Moving Velocity(Km/yr)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Forest Moving Velocity(Km/yr)- 26 -

2.0

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
Climate6. Further Studies

 Development of emission scenario for Korea
 Forest impact assessment using RCM
 Development of forest distribution change by community types
 Economic analysis on forest distribution change by community types
 Initial studies for water resources- 27 -

Impact Assessment of Forest
Influenced by Changing Global
ClimateThank You- 28 -