From commitment to action:
education

Department for International Development
HM Treasury
September 2005

SUMMARY: THE POSITION NOW AND OUR PLAN OF ACTION
At the G8 Summit in Gleneagles in July 2005, members agreed to provide an
additional $50 billion in aid per year by 2010. This paper sets out how thisadditional aid could be used effectively to help to achieve the international
goals in the education sector.1
Progress to date
Developing countries have made significant progress towards the education
goals over the past decade. Fifty million more children were enrolled inprimary school 2000/1 than in 19902. The gender gap has been reduced inmany countries. Several large-population countries have taken bold steps toreduce their illiteracy rates. Many poor countries – particularly in sub-SaharanAfrica – are making far faster progress than industrialised nations at theirequivalent development stage.3
Figure 1: Increases in primary enrolment, 1990 – 2001

250

1990

Primary enrolment(millions of children)

200

2001

150

100

50

0
East Asia & South &the Pacific West Asia

Latin
America &theCaribbean

SubSaharanAfricaNorth
America &WesternEuropeCentral & Arab States
EasternEuropeRegionSource: UNESCO Global Monitoring Report (2005)

1

The analysis in this paper refers specifically to education, but interventions across all sectors will be
required to achieve progress towards the education goals. The additional financial support will be
provided through a variety of channels, including debt relief and budget support.
2
Recent data indicate an even faster increase in enrolment since 2002 particularly in Africa (UNESCO
2006 GMR – forthcoming).
3
Clemens,2004.

1

CentralAsia

This progress in education has been achieved through investment in thewhole education sector, closely tied to broader development programmes
which tackle the underlying social and economic causes of low educationachievement. Many governments have also taken strong measures toimprove accountability at all levels and to strengthen administration systems
particularly financial management.4 Improved education outcomes have beenclosely associated with economic growth.
However the challenges of achieving the education MDGs remain great.
Shortage of resources (both financial and human); acceleration of population
growth in many poor countries; the devastating impact of AIDS; continuing
weakness in institutions; and natural and man-made emergencies – including
war and internal conflict – all mean that enrolment is barely keeping pace with
the increase in demand, particularly in Africa5. At present rates of progress wewill not achieve the MDG for universal primary education by 2015. There will
still be millions of children not enrolled, and many more will drop out before
completing a full course of primary schooling. And even countries such as
Vietnam that are on track to achieve universal enrolment still face hugechallenges in providing even a minimum level of quality to provide children
with basic literacy and numeracy skills.
Figure 2: Primary-aged children out of school, 2001/ 2 – by region

Children out of school (millions)45

40

Female

35

Male

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
Sub-SaharanAfricaSouth & West Asia

East Asia & thePacific

Arab States

Central & Eastern
EuropeLatin America &the Caribbean

North America &Western Europe

Central Asia

RegionSource: UNESCO 2005 GMR

4At the time of writing this paper, 47 countries had prepared poverty reduction strategies (PRSs), and20 African countries are above the ‘good performance’ threshold (CPIA scores of 3.5 or above) for
transparency and good governance.
5
UN Millennium project report (UN 2005) and Commission for Africa report (CFA 2005)

2

Many countries have prepared ambitious but achievable plans to increase
access to a good quality education at all levels. Several countries have also
taken steps to increase the parental demand for education by removing
school fees and providing financial assistance for the poorest households.
The EFA Fast-Track Initiative (FTI) estimates that in the next three years up to
60 countries will be ready with credible plans to achieve UPE by 2015.
Supporting these plans would help to provide an education to some 67 million
children who are currently out of school – 65% of the global total.
Beyond primary
The 2000 Millennium Summit committed the world to achieving the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. For education, this will mean making a
concerted effort to provide universal access to free primary education (UPE)and to achieve gender parity at all levels. The broader Education for All (EFA)
goals agreed at the World Education Forum in Dakar in the same year go
beyond primary education and cover other crucial aspects of the education
system such as early childhood education, literacy, lifelong learning andimproving the quality of education at all levels. Annex 1 contains a summaryof the education MDG and EFA goals.

The UPE goal remains the top priority, but there is a growing imperative inmany countries to increase investment in other sub-sectors including
secondary, higher education, adult skills and literacy programmes.
Secondary and higher education (including vocational training) in particularhave been demonstrated to make a strong contribution to growth and, poverty
reduction. Better governance and improved public sector management relyon the supply of qualified young people from secondary schools and colleges
to become the teachers, health workers and managers of the future.
Secondary education has also been shown to be one of the most importantfactors in improving the health and well-being of young women. Yet despite
this, secondary enrolments remain low in many countries particularly in subSaharan Africa.
Figure 3: Secondary Gross Enrolment Rates, 2001/2

Secondary GER (%)

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sub-SaharanAfricaSouth & West
Asia

Arab States

East Asia & thePacific

Latin America &the Caribbean

Region3Central Asia

Central & Eastern North America &EuropeWestern Europe

Making aid more effective
Helping developing countries to achieve the education goals will obviously
require a significant increase in investment. But additional finance alone will
not be enough. Developing countries must demonstrate their commitment toeducation by putting in place reforming policies and realistic but ambitious
plans to scale up the provision of education for all. They must also ensurethat an adequate share of the national budget is allocated to education.
Education plans must be prepared after full consultation with key stakeholders– including parents, teachers and children. Governments and donors should
be prepared to account for the progress they have made. Evidence has
shown that strengthened accountability - particularly at the local level reduces corruption and improves the equitable provision of services.6 This
will become even more important as the level of investment increases
External support for education must be integrated into national government
plans and budgets. The additional aid must include long-term, predictablesupport for salary and other recurrent costs.7 Budget support and debt relief
programmes have already begun to provide additional finance for these costs.
Measures will be needed to target this support to where the need is greatest,
to manage the inflationary risks and to ensure that the finance will continue toflow for an extended period of time. Prudent governments will not, for example,
employ additional teachers unless they can rely on the delivery of aid
commitments. To date, aid predictability has been an elusive goal, but the
proposed International Finance Facility and other innovative financing
mechanisms are designed to address this problem by providing a rapid
increase in long-term predictable financing.
In this way, the global compact between developing countries and the richworld that was promised at the 2005 summit can be put into action in the
education sector. The next section assesses the scale of increased financethat will be required.

6

World Development Report 2004.
Bruns et al 2003 estimate that teacher salaries will account for up 60% of the additional cost ofachieving UPE.
74

How much will it cost?
Assessments of national education sector plans and analyses of global andregional programmes indicate that an additional annual total of US$15 -16
billion in external financing will be needed to scale up education provision at
all levels. This will require at least double the current levels of aid and will
require a huge effort by all donors and poor countries. Significant progress
can be made immediately by making firm commitments for the next three
years in line with the Gleneagles promises plus serious indications of intent toincrease aid to 2010. Delivering the commitment to provide 100% debt relief
and supporting the IFF and other innovative forms of financing will be key firststeps.
Of this total, approximately $10 billion8 or 20% of the additional $50BN
pledged at Gleneagles would be used to provide universal access to primaryeducation. $4-5 billion would be used to support an expansion in secondary
education; $1 billion to support adult literacy programmes; and $1 billion to
support expansion and quality improvements in tertiary institutions in Africa.
The primary allocation includes selective compensation for the costs ofremoving school fees and providing targeted financial support to increase thedemand for education – particularly for girls. This is the priority investment, as
all children will need to be enrolled by 2010 to allow them to complete five
years of primary education by 2015. The should start with an immediate
commitment to provide an additional $3 billion from 2006-7 for the countries
that will be ready with plans in the next two to three years9, rising to $6-8
billion in 2008/9 and at least $9-10 billion for primary schooling thereafter.
Additional annual support for secondary, higher and adult education needs tobe phased in so as to reach $5-6 billion by 2010.
This finance will be provided through a variety of channels. The Education for
All Fast Track Initiative (FTI) has a key role to play in catalysing greater
resource mobilization and encouraging governments to come forward withstrong plans that are reviewed by donors at the country level in a coordinatedand rigorous process. Actual additional resources will be delivered through a
combination of expanded bilateral programs (including budget support anddebt relief); scaled up World Bank and regional development bankprogrammes; and increased direct contributions through the FTI.
Further details of the costs are provided in section B of the paper.

8

Based on UNESCO Global Monitoring Report (GMR) 2002 estimates with figures updated to 2005
prices and taking account of the limited increase in finance for education from 2000 to 2005.
9

Based on FTI analysis of country plans (FTI Secretariat)

5Plan of action
Many developing countries have demonstrated their political will andability to expand their education systems. As part of the global compact,
donors now need to make firm and concrete commitments to provide
adequate and predictable financing. This will strengthen the hand ofreforming governments and create a positive cycle of ambition andsupport.

1. Make firm commitments of support over the next three years to fill
financing gaps in existing poverty reduction and national development
strategies and education sector plans. It is estimated that this will
require an additional $3 billion10 from 2006-7 to support existing plans
to provide universal access to free primary education, with aparticular focus on girls.
2. Give clear indications of intention to increase overall support for
education by 2010. It is estimated that an additional $15-16 billion peryear will be required: approximately $10 billion to achieve theprimary education and gender goals, with the balance supporting earlychildhood, secondary, higher education and skills programmes within
education sector plans.
3. Increase frontloading of finance through the International Finance
Facility and other innovative forms of financing that will provide longterm, predictable funding, including for recurrent costs. This is criticalas teacher salaries account for an estimated 60% of the total financing
gap for primary education.
4. Make immediate and long-term commitments to increase support
for education in fragile and conflict-affected states as part of integrated
reconstruction programmes.
5. Provide immediate additional aid for large-scale programmes toreduce adult illiteracy and improve basic skills, particularly for women.
6. Provide immediate support for regional programmes to improve thequality of education data and to strengthen the research capacity ofsouthern institutions to investigate effective measures to improveeducation outcomes.

10

Including additional finance through increased debt relief, budget support, bilateral and multilateraleducation programmes and an expanded FTI.

6

What will it achieve?
This additional aid (along with increased domestic finance and private sector
contributions) will help to:•provide a good quality education to an additional 200 million
children11 in primary schools, including at least 110 million girls;•

reduce (and potentially eliminate) the gender gap in primaryenrolments in 48 countries;•

expand secondary education in 30 priority countries that areapproaching UPE or have particularly low secondary enrolments, or
both;

•

improve literacy skills for 550 million adults; and•finance the expansion and improvement of higher education
institutions in over 35 countries, the majority of them in Africa.

11
This includes the estimated 100 million+ primary-aged children who are currently not in school, plus
increases in the primary-aged population based on current trends.

7

A. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The case for education
The development case for increasing investment in education has been wellestablished. Access to free basic education is a fundamental right of every
child. A good quality education gives people freedom and empowers them totake control over their own lives. Education is both an end in itself and an
instrument to achieve the other development goals. Better education
improves governance by creating more informed and aware citizens.
Improvements in health are also strongly linked to education achievements.
Improvement in education has been shown to have a positive impact on
growth and is strongly associated with increased incomes12. Once created,the enhanced human capacity provided by education cannot be taken
away.
Investment in educating girls and young women has particularly high socialand private returns: educated young women are on the whole healthier, havegreater freedoms, fewer children and are more economically productive. They
are also more likely to pass on their educational aspirations to their children.
Progress to date1.
There has been significant progress towards the UPE goal. Comparedwith ten years ago, over 50 million more children are now enrolled in primaryschool. Net enrolment rates (NER) have increased in nearly all of thecountries that started the decade with less than 70% of their children in school.
Even very poor countries such as Ethiopia have made leaps forward over the
past decade, more than doubling primary net enrolment to reach 57.4% in
2003-04. Large-population countries such as India and China have provided
training to millions of adults to improve their basic literacy skills.
2.
However, there is still a long way to go. Increases in population, slow
economic growth in the 1990s, natural and man-made emergencies and the
spread of AIDS (particularly in Africa) have all had a serious impact on the
education sector. There are still over 100 million primary-aged children out ofschool. In 2001, 73 countries had net enrolment rates of less than 90%, and22 were lower than 70%. The greatest concentrations of educational
deprivation are found in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia with more than 30
million children still out of school in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan alone.
Fragile states and conflict-affected countries such as the Democratic Republicof Congo or Sudan pose particular challenges and are estimated to containover one-third of children who are not attending primary school.
3.
Significant progress has also been made towards achieving thegender goals with several countries making very significant reductions in the
12

In low-income countries, young women’s average earnings increase by 10-20% with each
additional year of education (Psacharapoulos and Patrinos, 2002).

8

gap between the numbers of boys and girls in primary schools. For example
Chad, Benin, Guinea, Gambia, Yemen, Morocco, Mauritania and Nepal, haveall increased the proportion of girls enrolled relative to boys by 20% or more
over the 1990s.
4.
Nevertheless, these countries are presently the exception rather than
the rule: in 2001 71 countries (about 40% of those with data) had a gender
enrolment imbalance in favour of boys. The 2005 MDG target of achieving
parity in the primary sector will be missed in more than a quarter of all
countries and in the secondary sector by more than half of all countries. The
graph below gives an indication of countries which are on track to reach thegender parity goal.
(Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics)

Gender parity in primary education 1990-2002

GPI primary 2002

130%

Above thisline: GPI
increased

120%

110%

100%

90%

Bangladesh
Mauritania
UgandaMalawiIndia
SenegalCambodia

Gambia, The
Above this line:
Parity likely to beachieved by 2015

Nepal
Togo

80%

70%

GuineaBenin
Yemen, Rep.
Chad

Niger

Cote d'Ivoire Burundi
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Central African Republic

Eritrea

Below this line:
GPI dropped
since 1990

60%

50%

Below this line: Parity
will not be achievedby 2015

LesothoNicaragua
Samoa

Afghanistan

40%

30%
30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%
GPI primary 1990

9

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

5.
Many governments are also taking steps to reduce the financial andsocial constraints that deter the poorest families from sending their children toschool. Chronically poor households face high costs such as school fees, lost
income and expenses incurred for travel, textbooks, lodging and food. In
addition to such financial constraints, girls and certain ethnic and socialgroups, AIDS orphans and disabled children face additional discrimination.
Poorer children are both less likely to start school and more likely to drop out.
6.
Some progress has also been made towards the other education goals
but most countries are still a long way from their targets. Literacy rates
improved sharply over the 1990s, particularly in high-population countries withlarge numbers of adult illiterates, although there are still an estimated 800
million adults lacking basic reading skills. Some countries have begun toexpand their provision of early childhood education programmes although
enrolment rates in low-income countries generally remain very low.
Enrolment rates at secondary are lower than 40% in many parts of thedeveloping world and countries are increasingly recognising the urgency of
expanding provision, particularly at junior secondary level to ensure theprovision of at least 8 – 9 years basic education. The low quality of education
at all levels is an urgent issue for attention in many developing countries13. (Amore detailed assessment of progress towards the EFA goals can be found in
Annex 2.)

13

UNESCO GMR 2004

10

B. WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?
7.
The principal challenges facing developing countries that want to scale
up their efforts to achieve the education goals are limited resources (bothfinancial and human) and the capacity to use those resources effectively.
8.
Better governance is crucial. The 2004 World Development Reportemphasised the importance of strengthening the accountability at all levels of
the government to its citizens. As levels of finance increase, governments willneed to be able to demonstrate that they are using the money effectively andachieving real improvements in the quality and quantity of the education
services they are delivering.
9.
Human resource constraints are a key factor. UNESCO estimates thatat least 4 million additional teachers will be needed in sub-Saharan Africa
alone to provide universal access to primary education.14 Countries will alsoneed to recruit, train and retain large numbers of education managers andadministrators. In order to do this, governments will have to expand theirtraining provision and explore options for using open and distance learning toprovide on-the-job training for key workers.
10.
More finance will be needed. Providing a good quality education tosome 200 million extra children over the next decade will obviously require asubstantial increase in financial resources. Additional finance will be needed
to build schools, train teachers and support the running costs of schools. The
bulk of this finance will come from domestic resources and many developing
countries will need to allocate a greater share of their budgets to educationand other social sectors. But there will also be a need for a substantial
increase in cash aid for education (in some cases to 2015 and beyond) until
such times as the poorest countries have been able to develop theireconomies to enable them to support themselves.
11.
School fees remain a key deterrent for the poor. User fees and theother indirect costs of education have been shown to be key factors affecting
the demand for education, particularly for girls. When faced with the choice of
paying for their son or daughter to go to school, parents will often choose theson. Additional costs for uniforms, books and equipment, as well as theopportunity cost of lost labour all deter families from sending their children toschool. Countries like Kenya have demonstrated that abolishing school fees
has a huge positive impact on enrolment – over 1 million more children
enrolled.

14

UNESCO International Initiative for Capacity Building in Africa, September 200411

USER FEES IN PRIMARY EDUCATIONThe elimination of user fees is an essential part of providing universal
access to primary education. This action has major financial implications
that have been under stated in recent calculations of financing gaps. A
survey conducted by the World Bank in April 2005, indicated that 77 out of
94 countries have some type of fees in primary education
All the countries that have eliminated fees have registered dramaticincreases in enrolment, number of teachers and the proportion of theeducation budget allocated to primary. Eliminating fees while avoiding amajor drop in quality requires careful planning and a significant increase inresources.
When Malawi eliminated fees in 1994 enrollment increased by 51% from
1.9 million to 3 million necessitating a 75% increase in the number ofteachers. To meet this demand about 20,000 untrained teachers wererecruited and deployed after a three-week induction course.
Simultaneously, about 4000 retired teachers were recalled to service.
Government was unable to allocate sufficient funds to meet the demand
and the response from donors was poor. As a result there wasovercrowding in schools, the ratio between the numbers of pupils andpermanent classrooms rose to 119:1 and that between pupils andtextbooks to 24:1.

When Uganda eliminated fees in 1997 there was a pretty immediate 70%
increase in total enrollment from 3.1 million to 5.3 million pupils. The
number of pupils enrolled doubled between 1996-2001 and the share of
Education in the budget rose from 22% in 1995 to 31% in 1999 with theshare of primary education reaching 70%. More importantly, the wealthand gender bias in access was all but eliminated by 1999. The resourcebase for education was greatly expanded through a broad based
partnership with donors who provided funding through a variety ofchannels – HIPC, HIPC grant, direct budget support and several bilateralfunding programmes.
The Democratic Republic of Congo maintained surprisingly high levelsof enrolment in spite of the civil conflict (currently about 80% GER) mainly
because communities and parents closed the financing gap. The
government proposes to eliminate fees starting September 2005. This willentail a higher capital outlay than has been recorded in the other countries
that have eliminated fees because about 50% of the teachers’ salaries andmost of the school running costs are currently covered by parents.

12What will it cost?
12.
Expanding the education system at all levels will require substantial
increases in investment in the sector. An estimated 70-80% of this additional
finance will come from domestic budgets.15 But this will need to besupplemented by significant increases in external financing, in line with thecommitments made at Monterrey and Gleneagles.
Primary schooling
13.
Several studies have been produced since 2000 on the costs ofachieving universal primary education by 2015. The FTI has also conductedassessments of national education sector plans either in place or in
preparation for 60 countries.
14.
Of the studies surveyed, the one conducted by the World Bank (Bruns,
Mingat and Rakatomalala 2003) and the analysis conducted for the 2002
Global Monitoring Report (GMR, UNESCO 2002) are the mostcomprehensive and reliable.
15.
Based on this analysis, we have estimated that the total additional aid
requirement to achieve the UPE goal will be approximately $10 billion peryear over the years to 2015. This estimate uses the internationally accepted2005 GMR estimate of $5.6 billion, updated to 2005 prices and taking accountof the limited inceases in aid for primary education over the past five years.16
This additional investment would represent approximately 20% of the total
additional ODA commitments agreed at Gleneagles and would help to put the
majority of countries on track to achieve the gender and UPE MDGs.
16.
It is expected that this additional finance will be provided through a
combination of increases in multilateral and bilateral programmes (including
increased budget support) and continuing reductions in the debt burden. It isalso expected that additional contributions will be channelled through the FTI,
particularly to donor orphan countries or those in need of urgent bridging
finance. Countries will also need to prioritise programmes which reduce thegap between numbers of boys and girls in school.
17.
Analysis by the FTI suggests that up to 60 countries could be readywith scaled-up education sector plans over the next three years. If specificcommitments to increase finance are made in 2006-07, it is estimated thatapproximately $3 billion in additional aid could be absorbed by thesecountries from 2007 onwards, rising in later years. The population of thesecountries includes 67 million of the world’s out-of-school children – 65% of thetotal.
18.
The estimates includes costing for capital as well as recurrent costs,
and assumes that domestic finance (public and private) will increase by
15

Bruns et al 2003
Full details of the costings, the underlying assumptions, and the differences between the World Bankand UNESCO estimates can be found in Annex 3.
16

13

approximately 5% per year over the ten-year period. It also includes anestimate of the costs of reducing demand-side constraints such as school
fees and other indirect costs as well as an allocation for providing targetedfinancial transfer schemes such as those which have been so successful in
Mexico and China.
INCREASING DEMAND FOR EDUCATION
Lack of demand is a major constraint to scaling up education services for thepoor, even when education is provided free. The poor still face other barriers
such as the cost of children attending school rather than working, the cost of
uniforms and textbooks, discrimination against girls, and parents’ lack ofknowledge of the benefits that accrue from education.
Social transfers
Social transfers (cash grants to poor households) can address all of thesebarriers, especially if school attendance is a condition of payment. Red deProteccion in Nicaragua generated a 23 per cent increase in school
attendance for the target population between 2000 and 2003, and the cashfor-education programme in Bangladesh brought a 22 to 30 per cent increasein school enrolment among beneficiaries.
Transfers that are not aimed at increasing school attendance can still have an
impact. In Namibia, a significant proportion of the old-age pension is spent on
grandchildren’s education. In Brazil, old-age pensions have helped increase
school attendance among 12-14 year old girls.
Scholarships for girls
Scholarship schemes for girls also improve the demand for education. Grants
for girls’ school attendance have been successful in Bangladesh, India, Brazil,
Zimababwe and Mexico. The Female Stipend Programme in Bangladesh has
increased enrolment rates by 12 percentage points per year in rural.
Other interventions
Other interventions can increase school attendance. Free uniforms andtextbooks provided by an NGO on Kenya have reduced drop out rates
considerably. Vouchers targeted at the poor have increased attendance inColumbia. School feeding programmes have also been shown to have apositive impact on attendance in some countries.

14

19.
The estimates also include an allocation for the additional costs caused
by AIDS in Africa (including the costs of recruiting and training additional
teachers and an allocation for AIDS orphans) and the increasing costs
incurred as a result of the spread of conflict and other forms of natural andman-made disasters.
AIDS AND EDUCATION
More than 14 million children under 15 have lost parents to AIDS in Africa, according
to UN statistics. There is a huge level of unmet need in terms of delivering healthand education services to AIDS orphans, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa. Orphans
are less likely to attend school, which in turn increases their vulnerability to HIV. It isessential that additional resources are provided for those the communities andfamilies who need them most, and that community-based organisations, in particular,
are able to access and deliver the increasing resources being allocated to meet theneeds of families and children.
Education is probably the single most effective way of preventing the further spreadof HIV and offers a protective social vaccine against HIV infection. It is also likely tointerrupt the cycle of vulnerability whereby children in AIDS-affected households areat increased risk of acquiring HIV because of their limited life opportunities andchoices. For example, primary school children, even in the worst affected
communities, are largely uninfected and represent a window of hope into the future:
if these children could grow up free of HIV it would change the face of the epidemic
in a generation. Children from AIDS-affected households face special obstacles ingetting and staying in school. Improving access to education, through the removal ofschool fees and the provision of school meals is a priority. In addition, girls'
education needs to be seen as a frontline response to HIV prevention for the simple
reason that educated girls are less likely to contract HIV.

20.
Education sector plans will also need to include measures to increase
access to early childhood education. There is clear evidence to show thebenefits of investing in early physical, cognitive and social development as
part of an organised education programme.
Secondary education
21.
Secondary education is increasingly recognised as an important part ofthe development effort and has an important ‘knock-back’ effect on the
demand for primary education. There is as yet no internationally accepted
target for coverage of secondary education. However, universal access to‘basic’ education (usually meaning nine years of schooling) is widely regarded
as a minimum for the acquisition of the skills and knowledge required tofunction effectively in modern economies. It is also one of the EFA goals. Firstpriority should be given to support government plans to provide universal
access to lower-secondary education while at the same time increasing
investment in education for 14-16year-olds, particularly where it can be linked
to developing vocational skills and knowledge appropriate to the local
economies. Priority should be given to programmes that strengthen theadministrative and governance capacity of the country.

15

22.
Global cost estimates17 of providing universal access to juniorsecondary education in all low-income countries indicate that the financing
gap will be in excess of the total additional aid required to achieve UPE.18
However, it is unlikely that all countries would be able to universalise theirsecondary enrolments immediately.
23.
Based on analysis of current education sector plans and education
sections of selected poverty reduction strategies (PRSs), we have estimatedthat an additional allocation of $4-5 billion per year from 2010 onwards could
be effectively used to increase access and improve the quality and relevanceof secondary education. We recommend that priority be given in the shortterm to countries in Africa which are either approaching universal primary
provision or have particularly low secondary enrolment rates or both.
24.
Full details of the evidence for the costing and criteria for selection ofcountries can be found in Annex 4.
Literacy25.
The most recent studies estimate that there are around 800 million
adults in the world who lack basic literacy skills.19 The EFA goal agreed at
Dakar is to improve literacy rates by 50% by 2015. Across all developing
countries, this would require approximately 560 million adults to be trained
over the next ten years.20
26.
Costing the desired improvements in literacy levels has not yet been
undertaken in a systematic manner across countries. There is no standard
model for literacy programmes and costs vary greatly across countries.
However, a recent study for the 2006 GMR (forthcoming) has reviewed a wide
range of programmes and derived a minimum cost of achieving basic literacyof $30-40 per student per year, lasting for a three-year period, and covering300-400 hours per trainee21 – giving a total cost of $90-120 per trained person.
27.
In order to have a significant impact on the scale of this problem, and inview of the need to strengthen the priority allocations made for literacy bydeveloping country governments, it is proposed that an additional sum of$1 billion in external aid for literacy training should be provided annually
over the decade 2005-15 to supplement investments by domestic government
or private sector organisations. This would equip 100 million people withliteracy skills over the next decade. This would be an important means, inpartnership with developing country governments, of securing literacy for 550
million adults, so as to achieve the Dakar goal by 2015.
17
See, for example, Lewin and Caillods (2001), Mingat (2004), Binder (2004) and Cohen and Bloom(2005).
18
In Zambia, for example, it is estimated that the cost of providing a full basic education (grades 8 and
9) to all seven-year-olds would require more than twice the present external resources to the education
sector.
19
In many countries this is based on self-reporting and census data which is likely to significantly
underestimate the levels of illiteracy. Some studies estimate that the real figure may be closer to 1 billion.
20
Van Ravens and Aggio 2005:6
21
Oxenham et al 2004

16

17

Higher education and skills
28.
An effective higher education and skills sector is a central requirement
to build the human resource and knowledge capacity of developing countries.
Universities and colleges provide the teachers, health workers, public andprivate workers of the future. Independent higher education and research
institutions make an important contribution to the efforts to ensure transparent
and effective government.
29.
The global financing needs of the higher education and skills sector in
low-income countries have been little studied and would in any case lack thelegitimacy of internationally agreed outcome targets.
30.
A more productive approach is to assess the costs and impact ofrecent strategic interventions in the tertiary and skills sectors and develop
national and regional proposals which are linked to education and broader
national development strategies. The African Union (AU) and NEPAD (NewPartnership for Africa’s Development) are currently developing a consolidated
action plan for supporting science and technology in Africa, which will relate toother proposals for revitalising the higher education sector in Africa. This ties
in with the recommendations in the Commission for Africa report that anadditional $0.5 billion per annum should be allocated to ‘revitalise Africa’s
institutions of higher education and an additional $3 billion over 10 years (orapproximately $300 million pa) to develop centres of excellence in scienceand technology’.22
Priority actions to strengthen higher education (World Bank 2005a)
•

•

•
•

•

22

Support for the preparation of tertiary education and science andtechnology plans – as components of sound and financially sustainable
national education plans, in consultation with relevant stakeholders. As in thecase of EFA plans, these sub-sector plans could provide an integrated
framework within which donor coordination and financing could take place.
Priority support to existing tertiary education institutions that havesuccessfully conducted a strategic planning exercise (in consultation withproductive sectors and civil society stakeholders) to redefine their mission
and to guide institutional reform.
Establishment or strengthening of centres of excellence in existing
universities or research centres. Support to research through provision ofresearch grants on a competitive, peer-reviewed basis.
Establishment of regional flagship institutions to enhance science andengineering development after careful analysis of labour market needs(examples might include the African Virtual University, and African Institutesof Science and Technology, as promoted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation,
among others).
Open and distance learning programmes, information and communications
technology (ICT) and improved access to digital resources, and thedevelopment of accreditation systems would be further possible priorities.

Commission for Africa 2005:67

18

31.
Based on existing education sector plans and recent analysis of thesector, we estimate that additional support of $0.8-1 billion per year could beabsorbed by the higher education and skills sector in Africa to re-establish thequality and viability of higher education institutions over the coming decade.

19

C. MAKING AID MORE EFFECTIVE
32. Recent evidence has demonstrated that aid brings substantial returns
when it is delivered in support of sound national policies.23 Even in the‘average-performing’ countries, targeted interventions have been shown tohave a significant impact on development outcomes. Within the social sectors,
aid has contributed to a doubling of school enrolments and halving of infantmortality since 1970.
33.
However, it is also widely accepted that increasing aid alone will not beenough – it needs to be delivered more effectively. The Paris Declaration on
donor harmonisation and aid effectiveness states that aid needs to beprovided in ways that strengthen the effective operations of national
institutions and systems. In education, more effective aid will mean providing
support for sector-wide national education plans that are linked to poverty
reduction strategies, are reflected in national budget plans and use national
government structures to ensure accountability. It is only by aligning donor
support with these national systems that sustainable expansion andimprovements in the quality of education provision can be achieved.
34. Scaled-up aid, and particularly aid supporting long-term recurrent costs,
must be managed in a way that reduces the potential negative impacts ofincreased aid dependency and increases the predictability of aid flows todeveloping countries. This will be particularly important if aid is to be used tofinance salaries for an extended period of time. It would be imprudent forgovernments to take on additional teachers using external financing unlessthere was a much greater assurance that aid commitments would be met thanis currently available. The proposals to frontload financing in the International
Finance Facility and other innovative aid mechanisms will help to address thisproblem.

35.
The evidence indicates that there are three broad requirements formore effective aid in the education sector:(i)Joint sector analysis and policy dialogue involving government,
donors and all major stakeholders (including parents, teachers andchildren) combined with effective implementation and regular
evaluation of performance.

(ii)

Increased resource transfers, through support to government
budgets or other forms of programmatic aid wherever possible.
This aid should be predictable, provided over the long term andavailable to support recurrent costs where necessary.

(iii)

Complementary support for capacity building, both at the sector andat the central government level, to address system-wide constraints
on the efficiency and effectiveness of public expenditure.

23
Econometric studies, project evaluations, and country case studies find typical rates of return above
20%.

20

Can countries absorb more resources? (1): The case of India
The Government of India’s Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) – A Programme for
Universal Elementary Education - has shown that with strong political leadershipand flexible donor support it is possible to scale up the provision of education
services quickly and effectively. A credible education strategy and sufficient
education management capacity are also critical.
SSA was launched in 2001 and has been supported by external development
partners since 2003. It builds on the primary education development programmes of
the 1990s and aims to provide universal access to primary schooling by 2010. The
programme includes significant investments in infrastructure, teachers and materials
as well as specific actions to target girls and excluded groups including: innovative
approaches for enrolling and retaining out-of-school children; subsidies, such as freetextbooks to all girls and children from scheduled castes and tribes, special facilities
for girls and grants to support students with disabilities. At the heart of SSA is apartnership between the central, state and local governments, and the community.
SSA is effectively involving all key stakeholders, from grass root level structures tostate level institutions, in the management of elementary schools.
The financing plan for the development partner supported phase of SSA includes$3.5 billion over three years (2004 to 2007), including just over $1bn external aid
from the World Bank ($500m.), DFID ($346m.) and the EC ($200m.). The
Government of India’s contribution to the Programme ($2.5 billion) is largely financed
from funds raised through a specially introduced education tax. The GOI’s financial
allocations to the programme have increased substantially in the last year.
Progress with SSA implementation has been remarkable. The number of out-ofschool children has reduced from 25 million to 13.5 million in just two years(exceeding the targets set by 5.5 million.) The share of girls in total enrolment has
increased to 47 percent, and the share of Scheduled Caste (SC) children has
improved from 18.9 percent to 21.3 percent, and the share of children with disabilities
in primary schools has improved from 0.6 percent to 1.37 percent during the same
period. Progress on improving the quality of elementary education is also evident
with transition rates from primary to upper primary levels having improved from 75
percent in 2002 to 87 percent in 2005. The focus of the Programme is now on getting
the last 6% of school-age children into school and retaining them in the system while
improving the quality of education as measured by assessments of learning levels.
In the first year of the development partner supported phase of the programme, thepartners disbursed over $200 million of external finance. In the second year ofdevelopment partner support a further $575 million of external finance will be
disbursed, almost exhausting the planned external contribution to the programme.
The development partners are currently discussing with the Government of India theimplications the astonishing success of the programme and the greater than
anticipated absorption capacity of the system has for future external financing.

21Can countries absorb more resources? (2): The Case of Kenya
Immediately following its election, the new Government of Kenya announced its Free
Primary Education policy in January 2003, which included the abolition of primaryschool fees and levies charged to parents. As a result, an additional 1.2 million
children, who had previously dropped out or never enrolled in the 8-year primaryschool program, enrolled in school. The latest data (for 2004) show an additional
250,000 children following the massive increase of enrolments in the previous year.
To protect education quality, the Government quickly put in place a program toprovide textbooks to all primary school children. The government grants to primaryschools have helped to address household poverty and increased access by
reducing the burden of parents in financing primary education. The management of
the grants by school level committees has also contributed to capacity building at theschool level. The Ministry’s five-year plan builds on this capacity to implement further
demand led programmes at the school level, including infrastructure rehabilitation
and water and sanitation facilities
This expansion has been supported by a significant increase in funding both
domestic and external. These resources, together with additional funding from theGovernment, made it possible to provide close to $200 million (K.Sh.15 billion)
additional finance for education in 2002/03 and 2003/04. Of this, about 90 percent
was transferred to the 18,000+ primary schools countrywide to be used for therunning of schools and to purchase instructional materials. Significant progress has
been made in improving the availability and use of textbooks in primary schools. The
national student: textbook ratio in primary schools has fallen from 15:1 in some cases
to between 1:2 to 1:4. Early evidence indicates that student retention andattendance have improved. students like the new books and their school
performance has improved, The interim report from a recent public expenditure
tracking survey exercise, noted that over 95% of the schools visited had received
funds for instructional materials and used them for the purposes intended.
The involvement of the school management in financial and procurement procedures
has enhanced accountability and built confidence at the community level. Full detailsof funds received and expenditure are posted on a public notice board at the school.
This enables the whole community to see for themselves the amount received andhow it has been used and to follow up directly with the school if they have any
queries22

36.
Donors should ensure that aid is given in ways that strengthen theaccountability relationship between a state and its citizens. Increasing aid
dependency increases the risk of undermining these relationships and making
governments accountable to the donors rather than to the people of thecountry. In order to avoid this, the best principles of aid effectiveness require
donors to work with government systems including parliaments, regional
councils and indigenous civil society consultation mechanisms. In education,
this will include supporting and strengthening systems to account for publicfinancial expenditure in the sector, including at the local level. It will also
include ensuring that all stakeholders (particularly teachers, parents andchildren) are fully involved in the preparation, implementation and monitoringof plans for the education sector.
37.
In some countries, budget support may not be considered the best
method of providing support. It is important in these cases that projects,
programmes and technical assistance should be aligned to government
priorities, consistent with national education sector plans, and implemented inaccordance with the aid effectiveness commitments set out in the Paris
Declaration. There is a need to reduce the proportion of aid for education thatis provided in the form of externally sourced technical assistance. While thevalue of well-designed technical assistance to build local capacity is accepted,
calculations of financing gaps in the preceding sections are derived from dayto-day costs of providing school buildings, paying teacher salaries, providing
textbooks and learning materials, and compensating the poorest families forloss of income. These investments must be the priority. Wherever possible,
increased aid must be targeted to meet these costs. This will require apolitically difficult but crucial paradigm shift for many donors – in education as
well as in other sectors.
38.
Increased aid for education is likely to come through a mixture of
expanded multilateral and bilateral programmes, and targeted global
initiatives. Of the latter, the Fast Track Initiative has been endorsed by the G8
leaders and has laid the foundations to deliver significant additional financing
for the education sector in a way that strengthens rather than undermines thecountry-led development process. As the FTI expands it will be important toretain the emphasis on country leadership and to ensure that the best
principles of aid effectiveness are followed.

23

The Education for All – Fast Track Initiative
Launched in 2002, the Education for All – Fast Track Initiative (FTI) is a partnership
between donor and developing countries to accelerate progress towards theMillennium Development Goal of universal primary education by 2015. All low-income
countries which demonstrate serious commitment to achieve universal primary
completion can receive support.
FTI has already been recognised by donors and partner countries as one of the mostimportant partnerships to accelerate progress towards the MDGs. The G8Communiqué stated; “We will work to support the Education for All agenda in Africa,
including continuing our support for the Fast Track Initiative and our efforts to help
FTI-endorsed countries to develop sustainable capacity and identify the resources
necessary to pursue their sustainable educational strategies. Our aim is that every
FTI-elected country will develop the capacity and have the resources necessary to
implement their sustainable education strategies.” Most recently, the OECD DAC
officially welcomed the FTI as a promising global initiative to deliver the Monterrey
commitments of increased aid to achieve the education MDGs.
To ensure success, FTI is built on mutual commitments. Donors provide increased
financial and technical support in a transparent and predictable manner. Partnercountries agree to put primary education at the forefront of their domestic efforts andto develop sound national education plans. By bringing donors, civil society andgovernments together around the same goal FTI is improving the effectiveness of aid– it is mobilizing more resources for education and ensuring that donors deliver theseresources in a more efficient way.
FTI now has over 25 bilateral and multi-lateral donor partners and 16 partnercountries. An estimated 44 additional countries will be ready to have their educationplans endorsed over the next two years, bringing the total to 60 countries. These 60
countries make up 65% of the out of school children or 67 million around the globe.

41.
In fragile states, where governments lack the capacity to provide coreservices, donors will need to work in partnership with the government, nongovernment organisations and UN agencies to support the provision ofservices while at the same time building government capacity to manage theeducation sector in the longer term. This should be combined with measures
to develop the stewardship role of the state, and the capacity to oversee andregulate service provision. In addition, principles of programmatic aid – suchas alignment behind one plan and system and harmonisation of donor inputs– will still apply, as will measures to manage fiduciary risk.

24Supporting education in fragile states: Reconstruction in Afghanistan
The Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund was established in May 2002, as a multi-donor
fund which provides a coordinated way for donors to help the Government of
Afghanistan. The Fund supports the recurrent costs of the Government and financespriority projects and programs to rebuild Afghanistan and facilitate the return ofskilled expatriate Afghans to the country. As of August 2005 it had spent over US$1
billion from over 25 donors.
On average, around 43% of the non-security portion of the recurrent spending wasbudgeted for the social services (education, health and social protection) between
2002/03 and 2004/05. This accounts for over 30% of the total recurrent spending. A
large part of this will have been covered through Fund financing. This includes forexample payment of teachers' salaries but also goods and services needed tooperate and maintain Government assets and deliver services. There has been arising trend in budgeted expenditure on education (with a slight reduction in 2004/05
because earlier teacher recruitment targets could not be met). Over a thousand
schools have been built or rehabilitated since the end of conflict. Enrolment has risen
to 5.6 million children, 37% of them girls. There are now 6,500 schools with 70,000
teachers24.

24

UNESCO Afghanistan programme figures.

25

D. PLAN OF ACTION25
1. Make firm commitments of support over the next three years to fill
financing gaps in existing poverty reduction and national development
strategies and education sector plans. It is estimated that this will
require an additional $3 billion26 from 2006-7 to support existing plans
to provide universal access to free primary education, with aparticular focus on girls.
2. Give clear indications of intention to increase overall support for
education by 2010. It is estimated that an additional $15-16 billion peryear will be required: $9-10 billion27 to achieve the primary educationand gender goals, with the balance supporting early childhood,secondary, higher education and skills programmes within education
sector plans.
3. Increase frontloading of finance through the International Finance
Facility and other innovative forms of financing that will provide longterm, predictable funding including for recurrent costs. This is critical as
teacher salaries account for an estimated 60% of the total financing
gap for primary education.
4. Make immediate and long-term commitments to increase support
for education in fragile and conflict-affected states as part of integrated
reconstruction programmes.
5. Provide immediate additional aid for large-scale programmes toreduce adult illiteracy and improve basic skills, particularly for women.
6. Provide immediate support for regional programmes to improve thequality of education data and to strengthen the research capacity ofsouthern institutions to investigate effective measures to improveeducation outcomes.

25This education plan should be considered within the broader development framework. The costs arepresented as needs for the education sector but it is expected that a significant proportion of these funds
will be provided through general support for government finance. For example, the costs of paying
additional teacher salaries are likely to be met in many countries by increased financing from generalbudget support and a reduced debt burden.
26
Including additional finance through increased debt relief, budget support, bilateral and multilateraleducation programmes and an expanded FTI.
27
Based on UNESCO 2002 estimate of $5.6 billion with figures updated to 2005 prices and taking
account of limited increases in aid for education from 2000 to 2005.

26

What will it achieve?
40.
This additional aid (along with increased domestic finance and private
sector contributions) will help to:•provide a quality education to an additional 200 million children28 inprimary schools, including at least 110 million girls;•

reduce (and potentially eliminate) the gender gap in primaryenrolments in 48 countries;•

expand secondary education in 30 priority countries that areapproaching UPE or have particularly low secondary enrolments or
both;

•

improve literacy skills for 550 million adults; and•finance the expansion and improvement of higher education
institutions in over 35 countries, the majority of them in Africa.

28
This includes the estimated 100 million primary-aged children who are currently not in school, plus
increases in the primary-aged population based on current trends.

27

References
Bloom, D., Cohen, J., 2005, ‘Cultivating Minds’, Finance and Development
42/2
Brossard, M., Gacougnolle, L-C., 2000 Financing Primary Education for
All: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, UNESCO, Paris.
Bruns, B., Mingat, A., Rakatomalala, R., 2003, A Chance for Every Child :Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015, World Bank, Washington
Clemens, M. 2004 The Long Walk to School.
Development. Washington.

Centre for Global

Colclough, C., Al-Samarrai, S., 2000, ‘Achieving Schooling for All: Budgetary
expenditures on education in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia’, World
Development 28/ 11: 1927-1944
Colclough, C., Al-Samarrai, S., Rose, P., Tembon, M., 2003, Achieving
Schooling for All in Africa: Costs, Commitment and Gender, Ashgate,
Aldershot
Delamonica, E., Mehrotra, S., Vandemoortele, J., 2001, Education For All is
Affordable: A Minimum Cost Estimate, UNICEF, New York.
Holsinger, D., Cowell, R., 2000, Positioning Secondary School Educationin Developing Countries, UNESCO, Paris.
Jarousse, J.-P., Mingat, A., Richard, M., 1992, ‘La scolarisation maternelle adeux ans : effects pedagogiques et sociaux’, Educations et formations, 31,
avril-juin : 3-9
Oxenham, J., et al., 2004, The Quality of Programs and Policies
Regarding Literacy and Skills Development, Background paper for EFA
Global Monitoring Report 2005
Psacharapoulos, G. and H. Patrinos, 2002, Returns to Investment in
Education: A Further Update, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
2881, World Bank, Washington.
van Ravens, J. and Aggio, C.,
The Costs of Goal 4 and LIFE,
Commissioned paper for the 2006 edition of the EFA Global Monitoring
Report (mimeo)
Save the Children. 2005.

Education for Children Affected by Armed

Conflict
Sperling, G. and Balu, R. 2005, ‘Free, quality universal basic education isachievable’, Finance and Development 42/2, June. International Monetary
Fund, Washington

28

UNESCO 2002, Education for All: Is the World on Track? EFA Global
Monitoring Report 2002, UNESCO, Paris.
UNESCO 2003, Gender and Education for All: The Leap to Equality EFA
Global Monitoring Report 2003/4, UNESCO, Paris
UNESCO 2004, Education for All: The Quality Imperative, EFA Global
Monitoring Report 2005, UNESCO, Paris
UNESCO Institute for Statistics/OECD, 2003, Financing Education:
Investments and Returns, Montreal/Paris, UNESCO Institute for
Statistics/OECDWorld Bank, 2002a, Achieving Education for All by 2015: Simulation
Results for 47 Low-Income Countries, Human Development Network,
Africa Region Department
World Bank, 2005, Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies
for Young People: A New Agenda for Secondary Education, Washington.

29

ANNEX 1: THE EDUCATION FOR ALL AND MILLENNIUM
DEVELOPMENT GOALSEFA GOALS

MDGs

1. Expanding and improving comprehensive
early childhood care and education,
especially for the most vulnerable anddisadvantaged children.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primaryeducation.

2. Ensuring that all children, with special
emphasis on girls and the under-served,
complete a good-quality primary education
by 2015.
3. Ensuring that the learning needs of all
young people are met through equitable
access to learning and life-skills
programmes.
4. Providing equitable access to basic andcontinuing education programmes for
adults and achieving at least a 50%
reduction in gender disparities within adecade.
5. Eliminating gender disparities in primaryand secondary education by 2005, as amilestone towards achieving genderequality in education by 2015.
6. Improving the quality of education so thatmeasurable outcomes are achieved,
especially in literacy, numeracy andessential life skills

30

Target 3: Ensure that by 2015 children
everywhere, boys and girls alike, will beable to complete a full course of primaryschooling.

Goal 3: Promote gender equality andempower women.
Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity inprimary and secondary education,
preferably by 2005, and at all levels of
education no later than 2015.

ANNEX 2: EDUCATION FOR ALL (EFA) GOALS
Where are we now?
Progress towards the EFA goals29
Early childhood care and education
7.
As well as achieving universal primary coverage, the EFA goals include
a target for increasing access to early childhood education. There is clear
evidence to show the benefits of investing in early physical, cognitive andsocial development as part of an organised education programmes. At thisstage in their development, children’s learning curves are particularly steep,and it is well documented that these programmes can bring strong benefits forlater achievement in school and beyond. .
8.
In most countries, participation in pre-primary schooling is not
obligatory (partly because many countries do not provide state subsidies tothese programmes) and is often limited to a minority of the population. For
example, in sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of the age group enrolled in
pre-primary education is less than 10% in all except five relatively well-off
countries30. The average number of pre-school years attended is only 0.7
years in South and West Asia and 0.3 in sub-Saharan Africa and the ArabStates. There is also a wide variety in the quality of provision – often involving
untrained and unsupervised adults working in the private or semi-private
sector.
9.
The returns to early childhood care and education have been
demonstrated to be high and national education sector plans should include
specific targets (with finance) for increasing access and improving enrolment
in this sector.
10.
Experience from South Africa shows that at least one year of additional
early childhood education can be provided at relatively low cost and with very
high returns.

29

Progress towards the universal primary education and the gender MDGs is covered in
Section A of the main paper.
30

South Africa, Ghana, Liberia, Cape Verde, Mauritius and Seychelles.

31

Literacy and skills development
11.
Basic cognitive skills such as numeracy and literacy are fundamental tothe efficacy and welfare of individuals and to the processes of social andeconomic development more generally. Of course, the spread of formal
school education to embrace the whole of the population is the best means of
securing lifelong literacy. But much can be done outside the formal school
system to help youths and adults who have never been enrolled, or who havenot completed enough schooling to become literate. In developing countries it
is known that mothers’ literacy is one of the strongest correlates of theincidence of school enrolment amongst children. Adult literacy thus brings
benefits not only for the participants, but also indirect benefits for the longerterm social capital of the country as a whole.
12.
Literacy rates have been improving sharply over the 1990s, particularly
in high-population countries with large numbers of adult illiterates31. China has
dramatically reduced illiteracy (by some 8 percentage points), mainly bystrong promotion of schooling for girls and young women. Literacy rates havealso improved in India – by around 13% between the 1991 and 2001
censuses – with a larger advance for women than for men. This progress(partly delivered by the expansion of schooling) shows that rapid strides canbe made, and that the literacy goal for 2015 is by no means beyond reach,particularly if adult and school-based programmes are judiciously combined.
13.
However latest estimates indicate that there are still about 800 million
adults who lack basic literacy skills, representing 18% of the global adult
population. The incidence of illiteracy is almost exclusively a developingcountry phenomenon. About 40% of the adult populations of sub-SaharanAfrica, the Arab States and South and West Asia lack basic literacy skills. In
some sub-Saharan Africa countries, such as Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, as
many as 80% of the adult population lack these basic skills.

Education quality
14.
The 2005 Global Monitoring Report (UNESCO 2005) presented strong
evidence to demonstrate that improving the quality of education provision isessential if the social, economic and development gains attributed toeducation are to be realised. The quantity of children who participate is bydefinition a secondary consideration: merely filling spaces called ‘schools’ withchildren would not address even quantitative objectives if no learning took
place. Thus, the number of years spent in school is a practically useful, butconceptually dubious proxy for the processes that take place there and theoutcomes that result.

31

Here, ‘adult’ is defined as aged 15 and over, and literacy is defined as the ability to read and write, with
understanding, a simple statement about one’s everyday life.

32

15.
The EFA goals include a commitment to the provision of primaryeducation ‘of good quality’ and to improve education quality at all levels sothat everyone can achieve better learning outcomes, ‘especially in literacy,
numeracy and essential life skills’.
16.
Well-trained and motivated teachers are fundamental to improving
education quality. Class size as well as access to good quality and relevantteaching and learning materials are also critical. There are some 47
countries with average pupil-to-teacher ratios higher than 35 – and in somecountries (Ethiopia, Pakistan) this rises to more than 80 children per class inprimary schools in urban areas.

17.
National education strategies must include measures to limit classsizes, particularly in primary schools, and to improve the quality of educationby providing training and support to teachers and education managers
throughout the system.

Secondary education and skills
18.
Secondary education is still regarded as a luxury available to a minority
in the developing world, with 700 million of the world’s population living incountries with secondary gross enrolment rates of less than 40% and another1 billion in countries with rates between 40% and 70%. There is no generalinternational agreement about targets for the expansion of secondary
education and political consensus even at national level is often absent. Thus,
a time path for achieving universal secondary education remains unclear.
However there is an emerging consensus about the significant benefits to begained from universalising junior secondary schooling to upgrade basic skill
requirements and increasing investment in appropriate vocation skills training
to meet the increased technological demands of a rapidly advancing systemof world trade.
19.
In recent years strong expansion of secondary schooling has been
happening: in low-income states, including most in sub-Saharan Africa, it
appears that over the years since 1998 its expansion has been at twice therate of growth of primary schooling (albeit from a much lower base).32
20.
Thus, even in the absence of international targets, the domesticpressures to expand secondary systems are resulting in rising enrolments –well before the achievement of UPE in many countries. Given these trends,
analysis of the cost implications of secondary expansion is needed, both toestimate the budgetary implications for those countries facing sharp financial
constraints, and to estimate the costs of a desirable minimum expansion
strategy at secondary level, consistent with national and international
development goals. The financial implications of this expansion are dealt
within Annex 4.
32

World Bank 2005:127

33

Higher education, science and technology
21.
As developing countries make progress towards universalising basic
education and improving the quality of learning at that level, thecomplementarity of more advanced knowledge delivered by higher levels of
education assumes greater importance. Science, technology and vocational
training programmes will also be needed to support innovation, increase
productivity and equip countries to compete in the global economy. Thus,
beyond the acquisition of the basic knowledge that every citizen requires tofunction in today’s world, the skills produced by tertiary education are neededby all countries – including the poorest. Innovative approaches will be
required including use of effective open and distance learning programmes
drawing on the lessons of the India Open University, the National Open
University of Nigeria and other large scale open and distance learning
programmes.
22.
Universities and colleges provide the training necessary to produce thenext generation of teachers, nurses, public and private sector workers. They
also provide the training grounds for the future leaders and reformers of thecountry. And lastly, an independent university sector with a strong research
capacity plays a critical role in supporting and monitoring national efforts toeliminate poverty as well as supporting the scientific and technologicalinnovation that will be increasingly necessary for low-income countries tocompete.
23.
The economic legacy of recession and comparative decline in subSaharan Africa in particular over the past two decades has had a marked
impact on many of the region’s universities. Reductions in real public
spending have left many institutions close to bankruptcy, with staff
demoralised by low pay and declining supplies of books, journals andteaching equipment. Under these circumstances, and to an extent that is
unique among world regions, the African university is substantially underresourced for its task. Accordingly, the quality of learning at African
universities has had a series of dramatic setbacks and the case for renewed
external support to many of these institutions is clear.

34

ANNEX 3: COSTINGS FOR UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION
1.
The World Bank study (Bruns et al, 2003) was conducted on the basisof an investigation of the financing characteristics of a range of ‘highperforming’ countries. The Bank adopted a set of target parameters (toimprove quality, efficiency and financing) as ‘performance norms’ for its
national simulations (shown in Table 3).33 The assumptions made for capitalcosts, for private schooling (and thus the extent to which net enrolment rates
can rise at negligible net cost to the state) and for emergency cost items, suchas the prevalence and impact of HIV/AIDS, are also generally superior in theWorld Bank study to those in other studies.
2.
Bruns et al suggest that the average additional annual public spending
required to reach UPE in the 47 countries covered would amount to some
$8.4 billion (in 2000 prices) of which they estimate an additional externalfunding requirement of $2.5 billion per year over the whole period (withsmaller amounts being needed initially, and larger ones later in the period).
The distribution of these funding needs is, of course, strongly skewed towards
the poorest countries – and particularly towards those with large populations.
3.
While these estimates are among the best available at a country-bycountry level, some key aspects of the methodology used result in an underestimation of the projected external funding requirements.
There are four principal sources of under-estimation:
4.
Firstly, the assumptions made for the growth in revenue and public
spending may prove to be over-ambitious. The Bank study assumes thatdomestic resources for education will grow from around $6.4 billion to $18.8
billion over the 15-year period – an annual growth of 7.5% per year. Based on
past trends it would be more realistic to assume an increase in real domestic
resources for primary schooling by the somewhat lower figure of 5% per year
over the 15-year period (itself a substantial achievement). This would thenincrease the average resource gap to be filled by aid from $2.5 billion to$4.2 billion per year over the 15 years.
5.
Secondly, Bruns et al make only limited allowances for additional
investments to address the demand-side constraints on achieving UPE.
Research has shown that a central explanation for the continued underenrolment of children from poorer households lies in the direct and indirect
costs incurred when these families send their children to school.34 For thesereasons, it would be prudent to cost in additional measures to reduce orremove these costs – particularly for girls – as well as providing targetedhousehold subsidies. Based on current programmes we estimate that acrossthe 47 countries included in the World Bank study, this would add at least

33

Subsequently, these became the core elements of the ‘indicative framework’ adopted by
the Fast Track Initiative (see below).
34

Such costs include school fees in many countries, costs of uniforms, books, sports fees, ‘voluntary’ school
contributions, transport and the like. These costs can be high.

35

$0.5 billion to the average annual additional expenditures required, and it
would increase the external financing requirement pro rata.
6.
Thirdly, the World Bank study makes no allowances for the costs to theeducation system of the HIV/AIDS pandemic apart from those associated withrecruiting and training additional teachers. These are substantial, particularlyin the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. These include the costs ofmainstreaming teaching about HIV/AIDS in the school curriculum, developing
and distributing learning materials throughout the school system,
mainstreaming similar materials in teacher training programmes, generating aproactive response to the implications of the epidemic for the education
system, and generating a capacity to provide counselling to education staff
affected by the crisis. Meeting the full HIV/AIDS-related costs to the education
system, based on individual country experience, is estimated at an additional$975 million per year – some $400 million more than suggested by the Bank
study.35
7.
Finally, the needs of education systems in fragile states or countries
affected by conflict, natural calamities and instability impose additional costs
which cannot be ignored. Over the past decade conflicts in countries such as
Afghanistan, Bosnia, Burundi, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Sudan left
more than 500,000 people as refugees, bringing major educational challenges
for the affected populations. Although it is difficult to estimate the likely costimpact of these and future emergencies, there is likely to be a significant
additional cost as a result of damage to infrastructure, supplies and humanresources available to education. The 2002 Global Monitoring Report (GMR)
estimated that this could add approximately $0.5 billion to the averageannual costs of UPE across all countries.
8.
In the light of these analyses, it is likely that the additional annual
external financing requirements for achieving UPE by 2015 will be well inexcess of those anticipated in the Bruns study. In summary, the likely
constraint upon the growth of public resources in the poorest countries
suggests that the financing gap – keeping to the other assumptions made in
the Bank’s estimates – will be of the order of $4.2 billion per year, on average,over the next decade. Adding in the demand-side measures that are expected
to be required of $0.5 billion, the additional costs of responding fully to
HIV/AIDS of $0.4 billion, and of the educational requirements of countries inemergency situations of $0.5 billion, generates a total additional annual aid billof, on average, $5.6 billion per year to 2015, as calculated in the UNESCO
2002 GMR.
9.
These estimates, however, use 2000 as a base – since then, progress
towards UPE has been very limited, and during this time the total additional
aid to basic education delivered by the international community has been
negligible, relative to the level of additional funding needed. We are, then,starting the process with a five-year lag. The impact of this late start increases
the new annual aid requirement over the remaining ten years to 2015 by 50%,
35

See UNESCO 2002: 147-57 and the summary given in Box 4.2

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to $8.4 billion per year (measured in 2000 prices). Inflating to 2005 prices
implies a revised additional aid requirement of close to $10 billion per year.

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ANNEX 4: COST ESTIMATES FOR SECONDARY EDUCATION
1.
Cost estimates of increasing access to secondary education range
widely depending on the extent of coverage and speed of expansion
proposed. Lewin and Caillods (2001) estimate that Africa would need toincrease its expenditure on secondary education from current levels of 1.4%
of GNP to 5.1% to secure 80% enrolment and to 6.3% for universal enrolment
at secondary level. A doubling from 1.2% to around 2.5% is estimated for Asia.
A more recent study by Binder (2004), which explores costs for all developing
countries, suggests that in order to reach a 90% secondary enrolment rate by
2015, low-income countries will have to spend by that date an extra 3-4 % of
GDP on secondary education, beyond what they currently spend. Mingat(2004) shows that, for ten African countries, even maintaining a constanttransition rate at today’s low levels would still require a doubling ofexpenditure on secondary education as a share of GDP by 2015, owing torecent primary expansion rates. In absolute terms, these magnitudes translate
into estimated total additional costs of between $28 and $62 billion per year
– which would have to be met by increased domestic investment, private
sector investment (likely to be higher at this level) and ODA.
2.
As a rough rule of thumb, all of these various studies suggest that theuniversalisation of junior secondary schooling alone (while maintaining
transition rates to the higher levels of secondary schooling at current levels)
would probably require additional aid resources at least as large as the
additional $10 billion per year (in 2005 prices) needed to secure UPE. In thelight of this, an additional aid allocation of up to $5 billion per year to support
the expansion of secondary schooling in low-income countries would be an
appropriate medium-term target. However, the criteria for national allocationof support to secondary school expansion need careful consideration. On the
one hand, a new emphasis on secondary schooling should not be allowed to
skew the budget in low-income countries away from meeting UPE
requirements, with lower retention rates, increased access and higher quality.
On the other hand, the application of rigid rules – such as making support tosecondary expansion conditional upon UPE having already been achieved –is unlikely to lead to the best pro-poor strategy.
3.
International benchmarking for the purpose of deciding appropriate
levels of secondary enrolments should move away from dependence on theevaluation of the costs of secondary education alone, towards considering
educational ‘need’ on a national or regional basis. Such an approach may
incorporate a range of different criteria depending upon the characteristics ofthe economy and society, and upon its development trajectory.36 For example,
any recent or considerable reduction in the opportunity of accessing
secondary education in a particular country (arising, for example, from primary
expansion), compared with other similarly positioned countries, should prompt
consideration of the relative costs and enrolments at both secondary andprimary levels, so as to determine which sub-sector should receive additional
funds. This methodology at secondary level – linked to the existing processes
36

See World Bank 2005, Chapter 7, for an illustration of this approach.

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of sectoral planning associated with poverty reduction strategies (PRSs) – islikely to be more attuned to development realities in the poorer countries ofAfrica and Asia than may be the case with a less discriminating, targetdominated approach.

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ANNEX 5: EDUCATION OUTCOMES
Outcome 1. Provide a good quality education to an additional 200 million
children in primary schools, including at least 110 million girls.
Most of the children presently out of school are in low-income countries, andmost aid resources for primary schooling will be directed towards countries inthis group. Accordingly, if the financing gaps of approximately $10 billion peryear are met by aid over the next decade, these monies will facilitate the shift
from present net enrolments of around 80% in these countries, to 100% overthe decade. We estimate the primary–school-age population in 2000 at some
286 million in low-income countries (based on World Bank and UNESCO
Institute of Statistics data). An assumed rate of growth (based upon 19902000 trends) of 2% per annum gives an increase in the school-age populationin these countries of 99 million by 2015. The current out-of-school populationof primary school age amounts to around 100 million children. The shift to
UPE would thus involve an additional 200 million children in these countries
being enrolled in school over the coming decade.
Outcome 2. Reduce (and potentially eliminate) the gender gap in primaryenrolments in 48 countries.
At primary level, there is a significant gender gap in enrolments in 48
countries, listed below. This provides a good approximation for the number ofcountries in which aid will help to reduce the gender gap at primary level.
Ratio of girls’ to boys’ primary GERs less than 0.95 (bold indicates lessthan 0.80)
RegionArab States
Central andEasternEuropeEast Asia andthe Pacific
Latin America
and theCaribbean
South andWest Asia
Sub-SaharanAfricaTOTALCountries with primary gender gap
9 Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Syrian
Arab Republic, Yemen
1 Turkey

7
2

Cambodia, Lao PDR, Macao (China), Niue, Palau, Papua New
Guinea, Vietnam
Brazil, Guatemala

3

India, Nepal, Pakistan

26

Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African
Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia,Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Sao Tome & Principe, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, Togo, Zambia

48

Source: UNESCO EFA Global Monitoring Report 2005, Statistical annex Table 5.

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The position at secondary level is more complicated. Here, gender disparities
are often in favour of girls, and the expansion of secondary access will notnecessarily reduce the gender gap in the absence of policy change. The
extent to which gender ratios are improved as a consequence of aid thus
depends on the extent to which a policy dialogue on gender parity atsecondary level is pursued, and on the extent to which it is heeded byrecipient governments. It is presently uncertain how many of those countries
with gender gaps at secondary level will in fact receive aid support for the
expansion of secondary schooling. Accordingly, the gender gap at primarylevel alone is alluded to in the text figures.
Outcome 3. Expand secondary education in 30 priority countries that areapproaching UPE, or have particularly low secondary enrolments or both.
There are ten low-income countries where primary NERs are greater than
80%, but where secondary GERs are less than 50%. While UPE should bewithin reach over the next decade in these cases, secondary enrolments needfurther support. These countries are Togo, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Equatorial
Guinea, Lesotho, Rwanda, Lao PDR, Zimbabwe, Burma and Malawi. A further
20 low-income states have primary NERs less than 80%, but very low
secondary enrolments, with GERs less than 40%. These are mainly from subSaharan Africa, and a good case can be made for providing some support tolower secondary education systems in these cases, while continuing withexternal support to primary education. These countries are: Gambia, Benin,
Liberia, Kenya, Mauritania, Zambia, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Mozambique,Chad, Senegal, Tanzania, Papua New Guinea, Burundi, Ethiopia, GuineaBissau, Eritrea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Pakistan.
Outcome 4. Improve literacy skills for 550 million adults.
World illiteracy is estimated at 800 million adults at the present time. Of these,
70% are concentrated in India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia,
Egypt, Indonesia and Brazil (UNESCO 2004:131). On the basis of reported
unit costs, the $1 billion additional aid per year proposed in this paper would
be able to equip 100 million people directly with literacy skills over the decadeto 2015. In partnership with developing country governments, this support
would enable the training of some 550 million illiterates by 2015, so as toachieve the Dakar literacy goal.
Outcome 5. Finance the expansion and improvement of higher education
institutions in over 35 countries, with the majority in Africa. This figure allows
for support to higher education policies and institutions in around 30 of the 38
low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, together with Yemen,
Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos PDR and
Cambodia.

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