Building on the IPCC Special Reports: Plans forthe Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report
Jim Skea
Co-chair, IPCC Working Group III

IPCC Symposium 2019
Tranomon Hulls ForumTokyo, 6 March 2019
Photos by IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis

Main Products during the AR6 cycle
1) The Special Reports
Special Report on Global Warming of
1.5°C (SR15) Approved
October 2018

Special Report on Climate
Change and Land (SRCCL)

Approval
August 2019

Special Report on Ocean andCryosphere (SROCC)

Approval
September 2019

Main Products during the AR6 cycle2) A methodology report (inventories)3) Three Working Group reports4) A Synthesis ReportSPM2|

SR1.5: discernible differences
between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

Confidence level for transition: L=Low, M=Medium, H=High and VH=Very high4

Source: IPCC

SR1.5:SPM3a|

CO2 emissions need to fall by ~45% by2030 on the path to limiting global
warming by 1.5 °C;
CO2 emissions need to fall to “netzero” by mid-century to limit global
warming to 1.5 °C

5Source: IPCC

SR1.5:

SPM3b|

6

Source: IPCC

There are multiple mitigation pathways
compatible with 1.5 °C warmingGovernment questionnaire:
priority topics for WG III
Policy relevant information on the Paris Agreement goals (well below 2°C, efforts toachieve 1.5°C, climate neutrality); anticipate the global stocktake; transformation
pathways to meet 2°C and 1.5°C; social + financial + technological + sectoral +regional implications of pathways

19

Geo‐engineering, including limits, negative emissions

7

The role of short‐lived climate pollutants and other benefits

6Options for decarbonization pathways, including solutions from business

6

Links between climate change and SDGs

5

Technological, economic, social, and institutional barriers to realizing mitigation
targets and benefits from carbon offset mechanisms

4

Opportunities, challenges, barriers and co‐benefits of climate change mitigation
policies and measures3

Impacts on land‐use change, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity andecosystem functions and services

3Challenges for AR6AR5 achieved a systemic view of mitigation opportunities. But there is a need toinclude a wider range of approaches in the assessment, including national andregional modelling as well as global models.
Challenges for AR6:
• To assess the linkages between high-level climate stabilization goals andscenarios on the one hand and the practical steps needed in the short- andmedium-term to make the realisation of these goals possible• To make greater use of social science disciplines, in addition to economics,
especially for gaining insight into issues related to lifestyle, behaviour,consumption, technological choices and socio-technical transitions.
• To link climate change mitigation better to other agreed policy goals nationallyand internationally (e.g. the Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs).

Expert Meeting on IPCC Expert Meeting on Mitigation,
Sustainability and Climate Stabilisation Scenarios:April 2017
• 54 scientists from 27 countries
covering a wide range ofdisciplines and perspectives not just modellers• Also included participants from:• Business• Government• WGs I and II communities

Expert meeting recommendations

AR6 scoping Meeting (1-5 May 2017)• Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting.
• Outline emerged over the course of the week through interactive series ofdiscussions.

To better inform the scoping of AR6, an expert meeting was held in advanceof the meeting to address some of the specific challenges identified for AR6.

Outline approval: 46th session of the IPCC in Montreal(September 2017)

Agreed outline of WG III AR6
Framing (1 chapter)
1. Introduction and framing
High‐level assessment of emission trends, drivers
and pathways (3 chapters)
2. Emissions trends and drivers
3. Mitigation pathways compatible with long‐term goals
4. Mitigation and development pathways in the near‐ to mid‐term

Set up sustainable development askey framing concept
Balancing sources and sinks/warming
levels
NDCs, emissions peaking, mid‐century long‐term low greenhousegas emission development strategies

Sectoral chapters (8 chapters)
5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
6: Energy systems
9. Buildings
7. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses
10. Transport
8. Urban systems and other settlements
11. Industry
12. Cross sectoral perspectives
Institutional drivers (2 chapters)
13. National and sub‐national policies and institutions
14. International cooperation
Financial and technological drivers (2 chapters)
15. Investment and finance
16. Innovation, technology development and transfer
Synthesis (1 chapter)
17. Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable
development

Orients sectors to human needs
The sectoral core: maps on toinventories
Responses not captured by sectoral
framing
Institutions, policies and cooperation
Financial flows + technologicalinnovation

Synthesis sustainable development indifferent geographical scales

Chapter 6: Energy systems

Sectoralchapters• Energy services, energy systems and energy sector, integrations with other systems(including food supply system, buildings, transportation, industrial systems)• Energy resources (fossil and non-fossil) and their regional distribution• Global and regional new trends and drivers• Policies and measures and other regulatory frameworks; and supply and demand systems• Fugitive emissions and non-CO2 emissions• Global and regional new trends for electricity and low carbon energy supply systems,
including deployment and cost aspects.
• Smart energy systems, decentralized systems and the integration of the supply and demand• Energy efficiency technologies and measures• Mitigation options (including CCS), practices and behavioral aspects (including publicperception and social acceptance)• Interconnection, storage, infrastructure and lock-in• The role of energy systems in long-term mitigation pathways• Bridging long-term targets with short and mid-term policies• Sectoral policies and goals (including feed-in tariffs, renewables obligations and others)• Mainstreaming climate into energy policy

How to get involved in AR6: Report writing process
Coordinating Lead Author
Lead Author
Review Editor
Contributing Author
Expert Reviewer

Breakdown of WG III AR6 authors

Countries nominating

Japan:67 nominations
14 selections

53 individuals

How to get involved in AR6: Meetings, workshops

How to get involved in AR6: Produce the literature

Timeline for WGIII contribution to AR66-10 Sept

Panel consideration of outline for AR6

15 Sept – 27 Oct 2017

Call for CLA/LA/RE Nominations

29-30 Jan 2018

Decision on selection of CLA/LA/RE

1-5 Apr 2019

1st Lead Author Meeting (LAM1, Edinburgh)

30 Sep – 4 Oct 2019

2nd Lead Author Meeting (LAM2)

9 Dec 19 – 31 Jan 20

1st Order Draft (FOD) Expert Review

30 Mar – 3 Apr 3 2020

3rd Lead Author Meeting (LAM3)

1 Jun – 24 Jul 2020

2nd Order Draft (SOD) Expert Review

19-23 Oct 2020

4th Lead Author Meeting (LAM4)

1 Feb – 26 Mar 2021

FGD Government Review of SPM

12-14 Jul 2021

IPCC acceptance/adoption/approval

Author Drafting and Review
Selection

1-5 May 2017

Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability
and Climate Stabilization Scenarios
AR6 Scoping Meeting

Scoping

26-28 April 2017

AR6 ApprovalThank you for your attention
Jim Skea
Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III

www.ipcc.ch
www.ipcc‐wg3.ac.uk@IPCC_CH#AR6