Results From Two
Integrated Assessment Model Comparison Studies:
ADAM project (funded by EU FP6)RECIPE project (funded by Allianz and WWF)
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Research Domain Sustainable Solution

IAMC Annual Meeting, Tsukuba, Japan
September 15, 2009

Report on Energy and Climate Policy in Europe (RECIPE)
Model intercomparison on economic costs, technical feasibility, delayedparticipation and the role of sectors on 450 ppm and 410 ppm CO2 only
stabilization scenarios. Policy and sectoral analysis.
Coordination and Compilation of Results:
G. Luderer, O. Edenhofer, J. Strohschein
RECIPE modelling teams:
PIK (REMIND model):CMCC (WITCH model):CIRED (IMACLIM model):O. Edenhofer, G. Luderer, M. Jakob, J. Steckel, M.
Leimbach., N. Bauer, L. Baumstark et al.
C. Carraro, V. Bosetti, E. Decian, M. Tavoni
J.-C. Hourcarde, H. Waisman

RECIPE policy analysis and sectoral studies:
U Cambridge:
CE Delft:
IPP:
SWP:
CIRED:
Joanneum Research:
PIK:

K. Neuhoff
H. van Essen
P. del Rio
S. Dröge
R. Crassous-Doerfler, S. Monjon, O. Sassi
A. Tuerk
Flachsland, H. Lotze-Campen, A. Popp
Elmar C.
Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2

The RECIPE scenarios

1.4%

0.7%

0.1%
Discounted at 3%
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3

The energy system transformation
ReMIND-R

WITCH

450 ppm CO2Baseline

IMACLIM-R

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4Macro-Economic Effects of Climate Policy

450 ppm

BAU

Global Results

ÎA reduction of carbon intensity is essential for a low carbon economy
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchSource: Luderer et al. 20095Energy System Investments (World total, REMIND)
Baseline

450 ppm CO2

Difference
Investments into fossil fuelsmust be redirected until theyear 2015.

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

6Mitigation Per Sector: “Dynamic Sectoral Wedges”
Î Electricity sector is first to be decarbonized
REMIND

WITCHEmissions [Gt CO2]IMACLIM

Source: Luderer et al. 2009

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

7

Distributional EffectsÎThe size of income redistribution from permit allocation schemes increases
with the carbon price, which is a function of mitigation technology availability

Source:Luderer et al. 2009

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

8The role of technologies
Technology Constraint Scenarios:

Discounted at 3%
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9

The value of early action (REMIND)• Delay of mitigation action until 2020 will increase global costs by70%.
• Stabilization at 450 ppm CO2 is not feasible when delaying action
until 2030
ANNEX I, CHN, IND 2010

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10

The value of early action (REMIND)• In a world serious about achieving 2°C, early action is beneficial forsome regions:

ANNEX I, CHN, IND 2010

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research11Model Comparison Within ADAM
Model intercomparison on economic costs and technical feasibilityof low stabilization pathways
Coordination and Compilation of Results: B. Knopf, O. Edenhofer
Members:
PIK (REMIND model):PSI (MERGE model):U Cambridge (E3MG model):ENERDATA (POLES model):PBL (TIMER):

O. Edenhofer, M. Leimbach. L. Baumstark, B. Knopf
T. Hal, S. Kypreos, B. Magné
T. Barker, S. Scrieciu
A. Kitous, E. Bellevrat, B. Chateau, P. Criqui
D. van Vuuren, M. Isaac

References:• Edenhofer, Knopf, Leimbach, Bauer (Editors): A Special Issue in the Energy Journal on The economics of low
stabilisation (2009)• B. Knopf, O. Edenhofer, T. Barker, N. Bauer, L. Baumstark, B. Chateau, P. Criqui, A. Held, M. Isaac, M. Jakob, E.
Jochem, A. Kitous, S. Kypreos, M. Leimbach, B. Magné, S. Mima, W. Schade, S. Scrieciu, H. Turton, D. van Vuuren(2009) The economics of low stabilisation: implications for technological change and policy. In M.Hulme, H. Neufeldt (Eds)
Making climate change work for us – ADAM synthesis book, Cambridge University Press.
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

12Model Comparison Within ADAM
3 stabilisation targets with different probabilities to reach the 2° target:
550ppm-eq, 450ppm-eq, 400ppm-eq

baseline

550ppm-eq

450ppm-eq

400ppm-eq

negative emissions

Knopf et al., 2009
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research13

Model Comparison within ADAM

Model comparison with five energy-economy modelsModel

Model classification

Calculus

Constraint

MERGE
REMIND-R

Intertemporal generalequilibrium model

Welfaremaximisation

Radiative forcing
En&In CO2 emissions

POLES
TIMER

Energy system model

Costminimisation

En&In CO2 emissions

E3MG

Econometric simulation
model

Initial value
problem

Cumulative
CO2 emissions• 7 regions: CHN, RUS, EU27, IND, JPN, USA, ROW• Time horizon: 2000-2100

Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research14

ADAM: Energy mix of a decarbonised future
models
TIMER

POLES

REMIND

E3MG

400 ppm-eq 550 ppm-eq

baseline

MERGE

Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009)Î different possibilities to reach low stabilisation
Elmar Kriegler
BrigitteKnopf,
PotsdamInstitutefor Climate Impact ResearchÎ 400ppm can beachieved
allImpact
modelsPotsdamInstituteforby
ClimateResearch15

Mitigation costs of low stabilization (full flexibility)

Discounted at 3%

Mitigation costs for 400, 450, 550 ppm-eq plotted against probability(median estimate from Hare & Meinshausen, 2004;
of reaching 2oC target at these levels
idea after Schaeffer et al. 2009)
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research16

Costs & Feasibility As Function of Technology Availability
400ppm-eq

high biomass potential
with all options
no nuclear beyond baseline
low biomass potential
no CCSno renewables beyond baselinexxxxxxx
Knopf et al., 2009

Î 400 ppm not achievable without CCS or extension of renewables
Î Biomass potential dominates the mitigation costs of low stabilisation
Î nuclear is not important beyond its (high) use in the baseline
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

17

Influence of Biomass Potential
REMIND, 400 ppm-eq policy
Reference: 200 EJ/yr

400 EJ/yr

Primary energy [EJ]

100 EJ/yr

Î Competition between biomass+CCS with otherrenewables
Î longer use of fossil energy with higher biomass
potential
Knopf et al., 2009
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research18

ADAM Model Intercomparison: Summary and Caveats
Keeping 2 ºC target with a high probability is technicallyfeasible and economically viable (in the models!), but• depends on optimistic assumption of biomass use• relies on CCS• assumes a full international agreement from 2010 onElmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research19

Integrated assessment for AR5: Key challenges•

Integrating mitigation and adaptation
Î Interaction with IAV community, Identification tools topropagate aggregate IAV and climate information••

Climate policy in 2nd best worlds
Î Fragmented (carbon) markets, Constrained investment, …

•Climate policy and development
Î Endogenous technological change, Path dependency, Leap-frogging,
Cross-sectoral and international trade effects• Including relevant micro-scale dynamics
Î Infrastructure, Variability of energy supply, Geographical economics•Sustainability context: Co-benefits and negative side effects
Î Land use, Resource and waste streams, supply bottlenecks•

Identifying robust results and structuring scenario spaceÎ Model intercomparison, Exploratory analysis, Offline bottom-up analysis
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research20