Its good to be back at NIES…

… if only virtually.
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U.S. Trends and Pathways
Jae Edmonds
2020 Asia Integrated Modeling Keynote Address

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Major U.S. Trends• U.S. power sector is going through a
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transition• U.S. is shifting from a net energy importer toa net energy exporter• U.S. GHG emissions have trended downward3

U.S. Energy Production and Consumption• Total U.S. energyconsumption is 101
Quads (~107 EJ) peryear.
• Dominated by oil andgas consumption• Growing share of
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renewable energy• End use energy 76
quads (80 EJ) per year

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

4U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Source: https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/

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5U.S. Power Sector• Going through atransition• Increasing role
• Renewables• Natural gas
DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE• Retirements ofcoal

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Age structure of U.S. generating capacity (2016)

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Changes in power sector capacity: history to 2019and EIA projection to 2050

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8The U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Advances in oil andgas production
technology has
enabled increased
production fromshales and other
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previously
inaccessible
resources

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9U.S. moving from net importer to net exporter
Advances in oiland gas
production
technology has
enabledincreased
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shales and otherpreviously
inaccessible
resources

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10A note on COVID-19• The short-term impact ofCOVID-19 is showing up
in the data
• The longer-term impact ofCOVID-19 is uncertain.
DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE• If COVID-19 creates a
global recession, theimpact could extend
beyond the time when thedisease is controlled.
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Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44837

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45Q
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 amends
section 45Q of the tax code.
The new 45Q provisions increase the value ofthe credit to $35/ton for CCUS (EOR) and$50/ton for saline storage.
Linear ramp up from $12.83/ton (utilization);$22.66/ton (storage) in 2017.
Start construction by 1 Jan 2024
Available for 12 years of capture

Study group goal: Assess the effect on CO2
capture utilization and storage (CCUS) of45Q and similar measures.
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https://www.energy.gov/articles/role-carbon-capture-utilization-andstorage-forming-low-carbon-economy

Modeling Results: CO2 Capture in 2030
Reference (no 45Q)

Reference with 45Q

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Pathways to 2050 GCAM scenarios
GCAM was used to explore 3 alternative pathways to deep
decarbonization in 2050
●A Competitive Climate●Climate Federalism●Low-Carbon Lifestyles• Each scenario has a unique mix of political drivers, policy (federal, stateand local), business action, technology innovation, consumer
preferences
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DRAFT PRESENTATION—COMMENTS WELCOMEKey Takeaways
Decarbonizing the U.S. economy requires certain
fundamental shifts in the ways we generate energy,
produce goods, deliver services, and manage lands.

• These fundamental shifts can be achieved througha host of alternative pathways reflecting differentdrivers, contingencies, and societal choices.

• Every pathway requires that action begins soonand that everyone pitches in—policymakers at alllevels, investors, entrepreneurs, consumers, voters,
and companies across key sectors of the economy.

• Any successful pathway hinges on high levels of

public support, expressed through stronger
demand for effective policies and/or low-carbon
goods and services.

• Decarbonization also requires a broad suite ofpolicies that drive investment and action by setting
goals, targeting resources, providing incentives, andensuring a level playing field.
DRAFT PRESENTATION—COMMENTS WELCOMEKey Takeaways• Technological innovation can greatly
facilitate decarbonization but is not, on its
own, sufficient to achieve it.

• The private sector is an essential partner
in any decarbonization pathway, andtimely business leadership can help
ensure choices that are beneficial forboth companies and society as a whole.

• Sectoral responses are highlyinterdependent—the pathway chosen by
one sector may enhance or constrain thedecarbonization options of others.
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DRAFT PRESENTATION—COMMENTS WELCOMENext Year Together Again
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