General Flow of LCS Visions Development

AIM Training Workshop
Tokyo, Japan Oct 22-26, 2007

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

ContentsContents

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof termsterms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation• Objective of LCS visions/scenarios development• Definitions of the terms• Back-casting Approach• Flow of the LCS vision development– Target Setting– Narrative visions development– Quantification of the visions– Examination on appropriate countermeasures– Energy & CO2 Calculation– Evaluation of the visions

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

2General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Objective of LCS visions/scenarios

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
SettingGlobal atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide have increase markedly as aresult of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed
pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanningmany thousands of years.
IPCC AR4

Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 20073

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents
Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting

Objective of LCS visions/scenarios
Economic
Economic
GrowthGrowthIndustrial
Industrial
Structure
Structure

EnergyEnergyResourcesResources

Political
Political
statusstatusLifestyleLifestyle

Urban
Urban
Innovations
Innovations Structures
Structures

Full of Uncertainty

LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions

Future Images

Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

To characterize demographic, socioeconomic, and technologicaldriving forces underlying anthropogenic GHG emissions that cause
climate change
To characterize the sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerabilityof social and economic systems in relation to climate change.
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

IPCC4

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Definitions of the terms

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification

Terms

Description

Projection A projection can be regarded as any description of thefuture and the pathway leading to it.
Forecast/ When a projection is branded "most likely," it becomesPrediction a forecast or prediction.
ScenarioSocioeconomic scenarios in general have beendeveloped to aid decisionmaking under conditions ofgreat complexity and uncertainty in which it is notpossible to assign levels of probability to any particularstate of the world at a future point in time.

Storyline

A narrative description of a scenario that highlights thescenario’s main characteristics, relationships between
key driving forces, and the dynamics of the scenarios.

VisionPicture of the desirable future (snapshot).

Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation*Mainly excerpt from IPCC reports
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

5

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Back-casting approach

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms

LCS
LCS Development
Development

Technology development,socio-economic change Forecasting

Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures

Evaluation
Evaluation

Required

Existing
measures

Mitigation
Technology
development

Policyintervention andInvestment

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

required policy
intervention

2000

future world

Back-casting2020

Long-term target year

EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.

Environmental pressure

TargetTarget Setting
Setting

No countermeasures Reference

Required intervention

Back-casting
Back-casting

Normative
target world

2050

Scenario Tea
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

6

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Flow of LCS visions development

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms

Target Setting

Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting

Narrative visions development

NarrativeNarrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification

Quantification of the visions

Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.

Discussion on appropriate measures

Evaluation
Evaluation

Energy/CO2 calculation
Evaluation of Scenarios/Visions
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

7

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Target Settings

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification

Vision ACountermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

Vision B

Environmental
target

70% reduction from 1990

Socio economictarget

Annual GDP
growth:2%/capita

Annual GDP
growth:1%/capita

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 20078

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Narrative visions development

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions

Vision A “Doraemon”
Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Techno-centric
Centralized production /recycle

Self-sufficient
Local production for local
consumption

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures

Vision B “Satsuki & Mei”

EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

Akemi Imagawa

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

9

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.

140
120
Population (Thousand)Objectives
Objectives

Quantification of the visions
80-100Population changes

60-79
40-59
20-39

80
60

0-19

40
20
0

1,600,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1,200,000

Evaluation
Evaluation

800,000

Transportation demand（mil. Person-km)

400,000
01970
Bus

Aviation

1990
Car

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

20102030

Maritime

Railway2050

10Walk/bikeGeneral Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki EharaContents

Discussion on appropriate measures

Objectives
Objectives

TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

In an electric vehicle (EV), a battery orother energy storage device is used to store
the electricity that powers the motor. EV
batteries must be replenished by plugging in
the vehicle to a power source. Some electricvehicles have onboard chargers; others plug
into a charger located outside the vehicle.
Both types, however, use electricity thatcomes from the power grid. Althoughelectricity production may contribute to air
pollution, EVs are considered zeroemission vehicles because their motors
produce no exhaust or emissions.
Ref.Alternative Fuel and Advanced Vehicle Center

AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

MotorLCSLCS Development
Development

InverterBack-casting
Back-castingElectric Vehicles (EV)Battery

Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms

11

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Energy & CO2 calculation

Objectives
Objectives-50100

150

200

250

300

350

DefinitionsDefinitions ofof terms
terms
Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions

2000

2050
Scenario A
2050
Scenario B

Quantification
Quantification

Coal

Countermeasures
Countermeasures

-Oil
50

100

150

Gas
200

250

300

ESS350

EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.

2000
Evaluation
Evaluation

2050
Scenario A
2050
Scenario B
Industry

Residential

Commercial

P-transport

F-transport

OtherAIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

12

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Evaluation of scenarios visions

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms

LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting

Demand savings：ex) Population
decrease, Trip distance reduction by TDM

Efficiency improvement： ex) FCV,
HEV, High efficient heat pump

E/D

Energy shift (Demand side)：ex)

C'/E

Biomass fuel vehicles,

Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions

Low carbon energy supply：

Quantification
Quantification

Total

Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

DC/C'

Renewable energy, Nuclear power, CCS

Total

-20%
-4%-40%2050 A-11%-18%-7%-30%-30%-14%-60%-28%-80%
2050 B

vs 2000's

Back-casting
Back-casting

0%-69%-73%

ΔC ΔD Δ( E / D) Δ(C ′ / E ) Δ(C / C ′)=++++ Cross termCD
( E / D)(C ′ / E )(C / C ′)D:
D: Driving
Driving forces
forces (service(service demand)demand)
E:
E: Energy
Energy Consumption
Consumption
C’:
COemission
C’: CO22 emission without
without measures
measures inin transformationtransformation sector
sectorC:
C: CO
CO22 emission
emission withwith measuresmeasures inin transformationtransformation sector
sector
E/D:
E/D: Energy
Energy Intensity
Intensity
C’/E:
C’/E: CO
CO22 intensity
intensity inin end-use
end-use sector
sector (without(without measures
measures inin transformationtransformation sector)
sector)C/C’:
C/C’: Change
Change ofof CO
CO22 intensity
intensity byby measures
measures inin transformationtransformation sector
sectorAIM Training Workshop
13
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Any Questions?

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
termsBack-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting
Narrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.
Evaluation
Evaluation

Thank you for your attention!!
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 200714

General Flow of LCS Vision Development
Tomoki Ehara

Contents

Flow of LCS visions development

Objectives
Objectives
Definitions
Definitions ofof terms
terms

Target Setting

Back-casting
Back-casting
LCS
LCS Development
Development
TargetTarget Setting
Setting

Narrative visions developmentNarrative
Narrative Visions
Visions
Quantification
Quantification

Quantification of the visions

Countermeasures
Countermeasures
EnergyEnergy && CO2
CO2 Calc.
Calc.

Discussion on appropriate measures

Evaluation
Evaluation

Energy/CO2 calculation
Evaluation of Scenarios/Visions
AIM Training Workshop
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 200715