The 26th AIM International Workshop, Tsukuba, Japan
Research Title: Scenario-Based Analysis of Electric Vehicle Penetrationin Road Transportation in Laos
BounEua Khamphilavanh1, Toshihiko Masui2
1Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan; 2National Institute for Environmental Studies

1. Background
Table 1. Expectation of EV share and impacts➢Two types of imported fossil fuels are being supplied for road
Unit
2020
2025 2030 2050
Description
transport in Laos and demand in fossil fuel has been increased
Share of EV%0.1
1430
50Electricity demand
million 7.07
994.4 1,709.9 214.6
every year (fig 1)(KWh)➢The increasing number of vehicles in Laos resulted in increment
Million 1.8
225 438.4 459.1(litter)of emission from energy sector
Reduction of fuels importmillion
10.6
149.9 257.9 323.1(US$)➢Laos is currently facing with a rapid increase of vehicles, urban
Reduction of trade balance
million1.1
195.3 283.0 350.9
traffic congestion, increasing fossil fuels demand and city air(US$)
pollution
Source: Strategy on Clean Energy Use in Transport Sector. Ministry of Energy and Mines. 2020
➢Electric vehicle (EV) technology is one of solutions is being ➢ In order to lessen the import of fossil fuel,considered and promoted.
government defined the ambitious EV penetratingtargets by 0.1% begging in 2020 then the expected
EV share is 14%, 30% and 50% by 2025, 2030 and2050, respectively ( as shown in table 1).

Figure 1. Import of petroleum products and value, 2010-2016
Source: Laos energy statistic, Ministry of Energy and Mines, 2018

➢Table 2. shows the number of vehicles in Laos would havearound 2.4 million vehicles in 2020, and 3.8 million, 6.6
million in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
➢ In 2019, the number of 2-wheelers was accounting for 75.2%;
pick-up accounting for 12.9% of total registered vehicles.
While the ratio of buses was only 0.2%.

2. Data and Methodology

Figure 2. AIM/CGE [Laos] structure for this study

Table 2. Projection of vehicles in Laos
Number of vehicles in Laos (Th. Vehicle)
Vehicle types
2010
2019
2020
2030
2050
Motorcycle
804
1,656
1,796
2,788
4,773
Motor-tricycle
89
91011
Sedan
21
84
5170
321
Pick-up
109
284
306
512
922
SUV
2460
64104
185
Van
1237408
123
Truck25639114205Bus
266915
Total
1,008
2,202
2,388
3,778
6,558

Scenario analysis:➢ Two scenarios are introduced; BaU scenario and EV scenario as a countermeasure scenario.
➢ In both scenarios, an average of GDP growth rate from 2020 to 2050 is assumed to be 5.7% per year. A population
growth rate from 2020 to 2050 is assumed to be 1.2% per year.
➢ In BaU scenario, EV will not be introduced. On the other hand, in EV scenario, the EV technology will be introduced inboth household sector and road transport service sector.
➢ In order to introduce the EV, each sector will need to pay more. In this analysis, the cost of EV is 50% more compare tothe conventional vehicle, and these costs come from electric equipment including battery. Through the comparison of
GDP and CO2 emissions in these scenarios, the impacts of EV in Lao will be assessed in this analysis.

3. Result and Discussion➢ Fig. 3. shows the expected vehicle stocks. The private conventional cars are expected to increase by 40% in 2025, 48% in
2030 and 84% in 2050, comparing with based year 2014. While the private EV cars are expected to share about 6% in 2025,18.9% in 2030 and 78% in 2050.
➢ Business conventional cars will increase by 65.3% in 2025, 74% in 2030 and 91.2% in 2050 comparing with base year 2014.
➢ Business EV cars are projected to be 6% in 2025, 20% in 2030 and 90% in 2050.
Private conventional cars

6,000,000

Private EV cars
5,000,000

Business conventional cars
Business EV cars

4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
2014

2020

2025

2030

2040

2050

Source: Author’s projection➢ The objectives of this study are to assess the impactsof EV promoting on the GDP and CO2 emission fromroad transport.
➢ In this study, we determined vehicles into two
categories, namely, private cars and business cars. AndEVs are assumed to penetrate to both vehicle types.
Method:➢The CGE model is applied to assess the penetration ofelectric vehicles in road transport in Laos.
➢ Conventional vehicles consume fossil fuels 100percent. But EV will be able to be introduced as a newtechnology in the future. Therefore, we modified
household sector and road transport sector to deploy EV
technology to replace conventional vehicles.
➢Under this modified CGE model, we assumed that theinfiltration of EV technology can mitigate GHG
emission from transport sector since electric vehicles
consume clean energy.
Data:➢ Laos IO table 2014 is used. The base year data isselected as year 2014.
➢ Additional input socio-economic data, in order to set
a future scenario, are potential gross domestic
product (GDP), the trade balance, capacity of power
generation, and population growth.

Fig. 3. Projection of private and business cars and EV penetration in roadtransport in Laos

Fig. 5. Comparison of total CO2 emission from transport sector in BaU and EV scenario (GgCO2).

➢ Fig. 5. shows the comparison of total CO2 from transport
90,000sector in BAU and EV scenario
80,000➢
AveragepotentialCOemission
intheEVscenario
would
be
2
70,000
GDP_EVGDP_BAU
60,000lesser than the BaU case 23.2% during 2020-2050.
50,000➢ 2025, the emission gap would be 12.9% and total emission
40,00030,000from EV case would be around 963.8 GgCO2 while the BAU
20,000emission at 1,107.4 GgCO2eq.
10,000➢2030,theBaUemission
willbe1,192.8
GgCO,theEVwill
2
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
emit smaller by 959.5 GgCO2, accounting for 19.5% lower.
Fig. 4. Comparison of GDP value in the BaU and EV scenarios (million USD) in Laos
➢ The difference of emission between the BaU and EVscenarios in 2050 will be 36.3%.
➢ Due to the cost of the electric vehicles generally higher ➢ The cumulative CO2 emission from 2020 to 2050 in BAU
case will be 12,000 GgCO2 and EV will be 9,300 GgCO2
than the cost of the conventional ones.
which accounting for 23.2%➢ To import new electric vehicles, the GPD loss
(DGP_EV) will be about 112.1 million US$, accounts
Conclusion:for 0.3% in 2030, however this loss is still lower than
➢ GDP will be gradually damaged due to Laos will spend
the average expenditure during 2010-2016 that Laos
more budget for import the EVs.
spent for fossil fuel import at 522 million US$.
➢ The replacement of the EV cars for conventional➢ In the long-term by 2050, the GDP value will reduce up
private and business cars will gradually increase during
to one percent with a lost amount of 891 million US$..
2020-2030 and this will dramatically extend in thelong-term during 2030-2050.
➢ The EV technology will significantly contribute to
mitigate CO2 emission in road transport sector.
100,000