Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the EarthDevelopment of Long-term Socioeconomic Scenarios-Population, GDPAugust 15, 2011
Systems Analysis Group, RITE

1.

Introduction

RITE has been working on a comprehensive scenario development for climate change
control and sustainable development in a project called ALternative Pathways toward
Sustainable development and climate stabilization (ALPS).[1][2][3][4] In the comprehensive
scenario development for climate change control and sustainable economy, long-term prospectsof population and economic growth are formulated. [5] We suppose that these prospects are notan ideological scenario but could be realized as social consequences. We select two different
prospects as they may more or less likely take place in the future as macroeconomic trends,
considering from the past statistics. Technological innovation is identified as the important
driving force of two scenarios in this paper and the two different prospects reflect the range ofuncertainty: technological advances are uncertain and it is highly uncertain to make any
prediction about innovative technologies in the future. Technological advances may vary tosome extent depending on the policy but they naturally undergo great surprise. The developed
scenarios would be a kind of guidelines of socioeconomic scenarios which do not incorporate
any specific measures against global warming.

2.

The narratives of the developed scenarios

In Scenario A, slow economic growth slows down after the miraculous past growth mainly
in developed countries In Scenario B, technological advances keep ongoing as in the past andper capita GDP continues to grow quite rapidly.

Scenario A (Medium technological progress scenario)







Though technologies in general make progress, mainly in developed countries where thesociety has been enjoying their lives with regards to material, innovation is not sufficient toproduce new types of consumption utility and to facilitate high economic growth as in thepast. Thus, mainly in developed countries, the economic growth rate is decreasing.
In Scenario A people do not know the world with high economic growth as in Scenario B
and the domestic income gap is not as wide as in Scenario B. Therefore, they may be wellsatisfied with the world in Scenario A. However, quite a few of them may feel the poorness
with respect to economic growth.
The economic growth in the least developed countries (LDCs) is smaller in Scenario A
than in Scenario B, influenced by developed countries.
After emerging economies continue to expand consumption and to reach a certain
economic level, they withdraw from the mass consumption society, following developedcountries.
Overall, economic growth is relatively moderate. Accordingly, population continues toincrease until around 2050 and stays around there from 2050 to about 2100.
The potential energy demand per capita in developed countries shifts to decline.
Population has larger impact on food demand in the late 21st century than economic
1Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earthgrowth. Food is in greater demand under scenario A than Scenario B, since the world’s
population shrinks under Scenario B.

Scenario B (High technological progress scenario)











3.

The past technological innovation achievements such as agricultural revolution, industrial
revolution, and IT revolution which transformed the society significantly have driven
miraculous economic growth. In Scenario B, such technological innovations which
revolutionize the society flourish also in the future, resulting in new types of consumption
utility in great deal and high economic growth over the world.
IT or transportation technologies continue to progress, leading to further advance ofglobalization.
The income gap grows wider between people who have ability to provide higher
value-added products or services and those who do not. Further progress of globalization isto boost the gaps. Though the governments try to redress the domestic income gap bytaxation, globalization makes it difficult to support the policies against the gaps and puts
limits on income inequality reduction.
The current developed countries and emerging economies shift toward higher-value-addedindustries. Bases for the primary and secondary industries are transferred to the least
developed countries such as African countries, and they can develop accordingly.
Due to high economic growth throughout the world, low birth rate spreads rapidly. The
world's population shrinks in the late 21st century, due to rapid fertility decline throughout
the world.
The urban-rural income gap widens further. Many countries experience furtherurbanization.
The potential energy demand per capita, as ever, continues to increase.
As food demand is influenced by population rather than economic growth, it is smaller
than under Scenario A in the late 21st century, with decrease in population in Scenario B.

The development of population and GDP scenarios

Along with the two narrative scenarios described above, the prospects of GDP per capita,population and GDP are developed.

GDP per capita
The following trends in general are observed from the statistics of the past. The growth rateof GDP per capita is low in the least developed countries (LDCs). When GDP per capita isbetween a few hundred dollars and a thousand dollars, the growth rate of GDP per capita tends
to become high. For the higher GDP per capita, the growth rate tends to decrease gradually,
shifting toward moderate economic growth. The industrial structure has three big trends; in thefirst period the structure centers in primary industry, in high economic growth period heavy
industry develops starting from light industry, and in gradual growth period the tertiary industry
starts to grow such as service and information industries. Considering these trends to beuniversal basically, prospects for the future are developed (Figure 1, Figure 2). Please note thatGDP per capita in this scenario is real and is estimated by converting the market exchange rate(MER).

2

Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the EarthAnnual growth rate of GDP per capita (%/year)

12China10Ethiopia

8KoreaIndia

64Japan2
BrazilIndonesia

Germany

0100

1000

10000

U.S.

100000-2South Africa

Nigeria-4
GDP per capita (US 2000 $)Figure 1 1980–2100 per-GDP and annual growth rate of per-GDP in Scenario ANote: Solid lines and dashed lines indicate the historical and projected rate, respectively. Five year moving average isshown.

Annual growth rate of GDP per capita (%/year)

12China

10Ethiopia

8KoreaIndia

64Japan2
BrazilGermany

Indonesia

0U.S.

100

1000

10000

100000-2
NigeriaSouth Africa-4
GDP per capita (US 2000 $)Figure 2 1980–2100 per-GDP and annual growth rate of per-GDP in Scenario BNote) Solid lines and dashed lines indicate the historical and projected rates, respectively. Five year moving averageis shown.

3Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth60
SRES A1
SRES B1

Range in SRES

Per-capita GDP (Thousand 2000USD)

5040

ALPS-Scenario B

30

Range in ALPS20

ALPS-Scenario A
10

SRES B2

SRES A201980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 3 1980–2100 Global per-GDP scenarioNote) Statistics up to 2008, RITE projection from 2009. SRES stands for the scenarios described in IPCC Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (2000).[7] As per-GDPs of SRES scenarios are prices in 1900, they are adjusted to beconsistent with the estimated of 2000 GDPs at the time of 1990.

In Scenario A, the current developed countries slow down the GDP per capita growth until
2100 and the growth rate converges to 0.5% per year in 2100. Developing countries continue togrow steadily. The current emerging economies and least developed countries have the percapita GDP growth rates of around 1%/year and around 2%/year in 2100, respectively. The
global average growth rate from 2000 to 2100 is 1.5% per year.
In Scenario B, the current developed countries continue to increase GDP per capita by
1.0%/year in 2100. Developing countries continue to grow rapidly. The current emerging
economies and least developed countries grow at the rate of around 2%/year and around
3%/year even in 2100, respectively. The global average growth rate from 2000 to 2100 is 2.1%
per year.
Both in Scenario A and B, economic gaps between developed and developing countries
narrow steadily until 2100. Yet, the gaps in Scenario B are still bigger than in Scenario A. The
GDP per capita ratio of OECD90 to Africa is 38.5 in 2000, and in 2100 6.4 in Scenario A and6.7 in Scenario B.

4

Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the EarthPopulation
The world population scenarios were developed with reference to The UN Population
Division; World Population Prospects (The 2008 Revision[6]) which have been used worldwide.
UN scenarios of the world population are developed every two years and have been revised
downward for every update. Therefore, in this scenario, even after taking account of the future
population increase in developing countries such as in Asia or Africa, we judge it very unlikelythat the future world population will be substantially over 10 billion.
Historical statistics explicitly show the trends that the fertility and population growth rates
become lower with growing GDP per capita (Figure 4). ALPS population scenario is developed,
assuming this trend to keep in the future, by replacing the relationship between fertility and percapita GDP by the relationship between annual change rate of population and per capita GDP(Figure 5). The population growth in Scenario B is assumed to be smaller than that in Scenario
A, as per capita GDP is larger in Scenario B.

7

United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Australia
Korea
BrazilMexicoSouth Af rica
China
India
Indonesia
RussiaWorld

6

Total fertility rate

5432100.1

110100GDP per capita (thousands 2000 US$)

Figure 4 Total fertility versus GDP per capita from 1960 to 2006[8]5Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth

Scenario A

Scenario B
43

Annual change rate of population (%/year)

Annual change rate of population (%/year)

4

Ethiopia

Nigeria

2IndiaSouth Africa

Indonesia

Brazil
Korea

China

1U.S.

Germany

0100

1000

10000

100000Japan-13

Ethiopia

South Africa

Nigeria

2IndiaIndonesia

Brazil
Korea

China

1
Germany

0100

1000

10000

-1-2U.S.

100000Japan-2GDP per capita (US 2000 $)GDP per capita (US 2000 $)Figure 5 Annual change rate of population versus GDP per capita from 1980 to 2100Note) Solid lines and dotted lines indicate the historical and projected rates, respectively. 5 year moving average isshown.

Figure 6 shows the world population scenarios and Figure 7 shows the population scenarios
by major region. In Scenario A, the world population is assumed to have a medium growth rate
and the UN medium variant scenario of the world population, the 2008 Revision[6] is adopted.
After growing to 9.1 billion in 2050, the world population grows steadily to 9.3 billion by theyear 2100. In Scenario B, the world population is assumed to have a low growth rate. Thisscenario is roughly equivalent to the average of UN medium variant and low variant scenariosof the world population, the 2008 Revision.[6] The world population grows slowly from 6.1
billion in 2000. After peaking at 8.6 billion around 2050, it declines to 7.4 billion by the year
2100.
160

SRES A2(IIASA1996 High)140

Range in SRES

UN2008 HighSRES B2(UN1998 Medium)

Population (100 million)

120UN2008 Medium

ALPS-Scenario A

100

IIASA2007(10-90 percentile)

80

Range in ALPS

Range in UN2008

60

ALPS-Scenario B

UN2008 Low
40

SRES A1/B1(IIASA1996 Low）

200
1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

2075

2100

Figure 6 Outlook of the world populationNote) Statistics up to 2008, RITE projections from 20096

Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the EarthPopulation (million people)
0200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

A: '05-50: +0.2%/y; '50-2100: -0.3%/y

China

A: +0.8%/y; -0.1%/y
B: +0.6%/y; -0.5%/yIndia
A: +0.6%/y; +0.1%/y
B: +0.5%/y; -0.1%/yUnited StatesIndonesia
BrazilRussiaJapan
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Germany
Ethiopia1800

A: +0.6%/y; -0.1%/y
B: +0.4%/y; -0.6%/y1990

A: +0.4%/y; -0.2%/y
B: +0.2%/y; -0.6%/y2005

A: -0.5%/y; -0.5%/y
B: -0.6%/y; -0.8%/y
A: -0.5%/y; -0.4%/y
B: -0.6%/y; -0.6%/yScenario

2050

A2100

Scenario

A: +1.6%/y; +0.3%/y
B: +1.4%/y; +0.1%/yB

A: +0.8%/y; +0.0%/y
B: +0.7%/y; -0.3%/y
A: +1.6%/y; +0.3%/y
B: +1.5%/y; +0.1%/y

A: -0.3%/y; -0.2%/y
B: -0.5%/y; -0.4%/y
A: +1.9%/y; +0.5%/y
B: +1.7%/y; +0.3%/yFigure 7 Population scenarios in major regionsNote) Statistics for 1990 and 2008, RITE projections for 2050 and 2100

720502100

Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the EarthGDPFigure 8 shows the world GDP scenarios. The potential world GDP grows at a higher rate inScenario B than in Scenario A. As mentioned above, GDP per capita growth at a higher rate inScenario B makes the population smaller than the population in Scenario A, so that GDP
difference between the two scenarios shrinks. The world average of GDP annual growth isassumed to be 2.0% per year in Scenario A and 2.3% per year in Scenario B from 2000 to 2100.
Figure 9 shows the regional share in GDP. In 2005 the total of developed countries (U.S.,
EU27, Japan, other OECDs) accounted for 77% in the world GDP, and thereafter they continue
to lose share slowly. In 2100, they account for 36% in Scenario A, and 33% in Scenario B andthe current developing countries account for large share, very different from the current GDPshare. Emerging economics such as China rapidly develop until 2050, and afterwards thecurrent least developing countries such as African countries develop their economy reasonably.

Range in SRES

400
SRES A1

SRES B1

GDP (Trillion 2000 USD)

350
300

ALPS-Scenario B
250

Range in ALPS200

ALPS-Scenario A150
SRES B2100
50

EIA-IEO2010
SRES A2IEA-ETP201001980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 8 The world GDP scenarioNote) Statistics from 1980 to 2008, RITE projections after 2009. SRES is in IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios 2000. SRES scenarios are adjusted to the price in 2000 from the one in 1990.

8Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth

Latin
Af rica
America2%
Middle 5%
East
2%
Other Asia
3% India

1%
China2%

1990

Latin
Af rica America
2%5%MiddleEast
Other Asia 2%

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe2%

UnitedStates
29%

Other
OECD
9%

4%
India2%

2005

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe1%

UnitedStates30%

China
6%

OtherOECD9%Japan
17%

Japan
14%

EU2728%EU2725%Scenario A
Af rica3%

Latin
America5%

2020

MiddleEast
3%Other Asia
5%India
3%
China

Latin
Af rica America
6%5%Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe2%

MiddleEast4%

UnitedStates26%

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe
3%

2100
Latin
America8%

UnitedStates19%

Other Asia
6%

EU2721%

China
21%

Japan
11%

Other
OECD
8%

Middle
East
5%

Japan
6%

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe3%

UnitedStates15%

Af rica
11%
EU2715%

India
7%

12%
Other
OECD
9%

2050

EU2710%Japan
3%Other Asia
10%
India
11%

Other
OECD8%

China
16%

Scenario B
Latin
America
5%Middle
East
Other Asia 3%

Af rica3%

2020

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe2%

UnitedStates
26%

5%
India
3%
China
12%

Other
OECD
9%

Latin
Af rica America
6%5%Middle
East3%

2050

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe3%

UnitedStates20%

Other Asia
6%

India
7%

Japan
10%

EU2722%Af rica
10%
EU2715%

China
21%

Other
OECD
8%

2100
Latin
America
8%

Japan
6%

Former Soviet
Union and E.
Europe3%

UnitedStates14%
EU2710%

MiddleEast
5%

Other Asia
11%
India
12%

China
17%

Japan
3%
OtherOECD
7%

Figure 9 Regional GDP scenario (upper: statistics, middle: Scenario A, lower: Scenario B)
Note) OECD represents OECD90 (OECD countries in the year of 1990)

9Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth

4.

Notes

As mentioned above, within the same scenario, the population and GDP prospects areconsistently developed. Please be sure not to develop new GDP prospects from per capita GDPof Scenario A and population of Scenario B or vice versa, which undermines consistency. The
developed prospects of GDP and population are not intended for use in that way.
Let us note that the population and GDP prospects in this paper may be occasionally updated
without prior notice so that the most recent economic conditions can be reflected in theprospects.
Reference
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]

[6]
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]

RITE; ALPS project annual report 2007 (in Japanese)
http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h19seikahoukoku/h19ichiran-hyou.htm (2007)
RITE; ALPS project annual report 2008 (in Japanese)
http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h20seikahoukoku/h20ichiran-hyou0.html (2008)
RITE; ALPS project annual report 2009 (in Japanese)
http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h21seikahoukoku/h21ichiran-hyou.html (2009)
Tokushige et al., Analyses on GHG Emissions and Sustainable Development fromStatistics Data, The 26th Conference on Energy, Economy, and Environment (2010)
Homma et al., Development of Socio-economic Scenarios based on Analysis of
Socio-economic Factors, The 27th Conference on Energy, Economy, and Environment(2011)UN Population Division; World Population prospects (The 2008 Revision),
http://esa.un.org/unpp/(2009)
IPCC; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Cambridge University (2000)
The World Bank; World Development Indicators (2008)
IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2010, (2010)
DOE/EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/Contact to:
Kohko Tokushige, Takashi Homma, Keigo Akimoto
Systems Analysis Group
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-shi, Kyoto 619-0292 JAPAN
PHONE: +81-774-75-2304 FAX: +81-774-75-2317 E-mail: sysinfo@rite.or.jp

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