1.

What is APEIS-IEA?

The Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) sub-project will provide a set of computer simulation models and astrategic database that can be used to systematically assess strategies for environmentally sympathetic development in
the Asia-Pacific region. The development of the models and database is based on the AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model) group of computer simulation models created to analyse the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies forthe region.
The IEA sub-project will be able to use the models to analyse the results from the Integrated Environmental Monitoring(IEM) sub-project to prepare scenario options for the Research on Innovative and Strategic Policy Options (RISPO)
sub-project in its research on innovations and strategic policy options. Also, as economic growth in the region comes up
against social, economic and environmental limits, the models and database will provide policy makers with innovative
strategies that help make development more environmentally benign and socially acceptable. In particular, the outcomesof the IEA sub-project will help policy makers to understand the relationships between economic growth andenvironmental conservation, and to imagine different future scenarios for socio-economic development that breakthrough the conflicts between these two forces. Policy makers will be able to estimate the effects of innovations onsustainable development and use the models and databases to train experts for their local situations.
The IEA sub-project has three stages that overlap somewhat. In the first and current stage, a family of models based on
those of the AIM project is being developed (Figure 1). The second stage, which has begun for some models, will
forecast future environmental and economic trends in the region and assess innovation strategies. In the third stage, thestrategic database (the design and preparation of which is occurring during the earlier stages) will be established to store
collected data, input assumptions and simulated outputs from the innovation strategies. The database will also beorganised so that policy makers can use it to prepare sustainable development policies.
By the end of 2004, the IEA sub-project will provide APEIS with a database of policy, investment andtechnological innovations as well as integrated models of the economy and environment. These will be used to project
regional socio-environmental trends and assess strategies for environmentally sympathetic development in the
Asia-Pacific region. The models include a multi-regional simple trend model (AIM/Trend), overall integrated models(AIM/CGE [Computable General Equilibrium] as part of AIM/Top-down, and AIM/Bottom-up), a material-economy
integrated model (AIM/Material), an energy technology model (AIM/Energy), and a set of ecosystem models covering
water, agriculture, vegetation and health (AIM/Ecosystem and AIM/Water).

1

2.

What are the Expected Products, Scientific Contributions and Current Progress?

The IEA team has already made significant advances in the development of its models, so expectations for model
development and modelling outcomes are high. The final versions of AIM/Trend and AIM/Energy are complete, andpreliminary versions of four other models, AIM/CGE, AIM/Material, AIM/Ecosystem and AIM/Water, have beendeveloped.
The six models that comprise the AIM/APEIS IEA family will be able to assess environment–economy interactions as wellas innovation strategies in the Asia-Pacific region. Each of these models has a specific role in the family.

2.1. AIM/Trend
AIM/Trend is a multi-regional model with a simple structure that projects future socio-economic trends and environmental
change to 2032 for all 42 countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Figure 2).
It was used to examine some energy and environmental consequences of four scenarios (Market Forces, Policy Reform,
Fortress World and Great Transition1) prepared by the United Nations Environment Program’s Global Environment
Outlook 3 for the Asia-Pacific region. It found that the diversity of results for CO2 emissions emphasised the importance ofspecific country-level studies. Specifically, the ‘Fortress World’ scenario did nothing to reduce energy-related CO2 andSO2 emissions, ‘Policy Reform’ was the only scenario to reduce emissions by 2032. It was also used to simulate themarket-scale development of the environmental industry in each country in Asia by using these four scenarios. Japan,
China, India and Korea are seen as the basis for the growth of the environmental industry (Figure 3).

1

The main assumptions for each of the four scenarios are as follows:

Market Forces: Most of the world adopts the values and expectations prevailing in today’s industrialised
countries. The wealth of nations and the interplay of market forces dominate social and political agendas.
Policy Reform: Decisive initiatives are taken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social andenvironmental goals. A coordinated pro-environment and anti-poverty drive balances the momentum foreconomic development at any cost.
Fortress World: This scenario assumes a world of striking disparities where inequality and conflict prevail.
Socio-economic and environmental stresses give rise to waves of protest and counteraction.
Great Transition: A new environment and development paradigm emerges in response to the challenges ofsustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.

2Recently, the IEA team began to modify AIM/Trend so that it can be applied to the demand for biomass, such as foodconsumption (Figure 4). The accessibility of AIM/Trend for users continues to be improved, and work on this and thedevelopment of a version in MS Word are major tasks for 2003.

2.2. AIM/CGE (Asia)
AIM/CGE is a top-down, multi-regional, multi-sectoral, general-equilibrium-type world economic model withenvironmental modules for regional use (Figure 5). It will be used to assess the environmental and economic effects of
new market establishment, new investment, technology transfer and international trade.
This model is now being further developed to cover 17 countries and 24 industrial sectors in the Asian region until 2100.
AIM/CGE (Asia) is a central component of AIM/Trend, being integrated with bottom-up technology and land-use models
for the Asia-Pacific region. It will use the simulations from AIM/Trend as benchmarks for assessing future scenarios fordifferent Asian countries.
The top-down approach allows identification of the most efficient and innovative options for countermeasures toenvironmental problems through investment in natural resource management and technology transfer, including sourcesof funding from domestic and/or foreign capital. Current work on the first version of the model includes collection andmodification of energy data; determining balances in economic and material flows; inclusion of regional economic
characteristics; and describing technologies.

2.3. AIM/Energy
AIM/Energy is a bottom-up technology selection model of energy use for selected countries in the region (Figure 6). It will
reproduce the process of technology selection for energy supply and demand. The model includes data on 400
technologies to help choose the best mix of technologies in a future with defined socio-economic conditions (Box 1).
AIM/Energy, in its different forms and uses, has been applied to China, India, Korea, Vietnam and Japan. These
applications showed the potential to minimise the emissions produced by rapid economic growth over time, using
different methods most suited to each country. It illustrated the reasons behind China’s substantial improvements inenergy efficiency and CO2 reduction during the 1990s. These reasons are: technological progress in China’s steel, power
generation and building materials industries; China’s use of cleaner fuels; changes in the structure of the Chinese
economy; and China’s introduction of stringent environmental policies. The marginal cost of further emission reductionsin China is very high, but this is not the case for India, for example, which could relatively cheaply invest to produce
greater energy efficiencies (Figure 7).

3

A preliminary end-use model, which uses standardised technologies, has been prepared for a group of about 30 Asian
countries. Future work includes designing specific technologies for each country and applying AIM/Energy to othercountries in the region. AIM/Energy will be used for more detailed analyses of climate change in the region, and will be
extended to include the impacts of methane and N2O. Whereas the analyses of the impacts of CO2 emissions werebased on fossil-fuel-driven technologies, the analyses of methane and N2O will be extended to include technologies
based on other fuels, such as biomass. Also, the model will be used for analyses of Clean Development Mechanisms toidentify potential future technologies.
----------------------------//-------------------------------Box 1: Frontier 1

Information on more than 400 technologies has been collected for use with AIM/Energy. This
includes initial and maintenance cost data; technology lifetimes; relationships with othertechnologies; efficiency; and use of energy and materials. The technology selection process isreproduced in AIM/Energy. These technology-based simulations are very important indetermining the parameters of economic models.
----------------------------//--------------------------------

4

Box 1 AIM technology file (extract)
Classification
Iron & SteelNon-ferrous metal

Building materials
Chemical industry

Petrochemical Industry
Paper-making

5

TextileMachinery
Irrigation
Farming works
Agricultural
products
process
Fishery
Animal husbandry
Space heating in resident
Cooling in resident
Lighting in resident
Cooking & Hot water inresident
Electric ApplianceSpace heating in service sector
CoolingLighting
Cooking & Hot waterElectric Appliance
Passenger & freight transport

Technologies (equipment)
Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc furnace, DC-electric arc furnace,
Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rollingmachine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment of coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace(TRT), Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.
Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer, Electrolytic aluminum with upperinsert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast
furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zincsmelting with vertical pot method.
Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-heater, dry process rotary kiln withpre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;
Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.
Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column, Shifting equipment of sulphur
removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process, Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator,
Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method; Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace,
Equipment of residue heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter; Fertilizer
production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization
Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities of cracking with hydrogen adding,
Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator, Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane
cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene.
Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water, facilities of finishing, facilities ofresidue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.
Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing process, Garment making, Air
conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.
Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electrichydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heatprocessing furnace, Electric processing furnace; Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor
Tractor, Other agricultural machine
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines.
Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric heater, Brick bed linked withstove (Chinese KANG).
Air conditioner, Electric fan.
Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.
Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove, firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.
Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.
Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.
System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.
Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.
Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.
Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.
Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.; Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel
vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.
Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.
Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

2.4. AIM/Material
AIM/Material is a country-based environment–economy-integrated model dealing with environmental investment and theenvironmental industry (Box 2). A bottom-up technology selection model will be constructed to support AIM/Material.
Material balance and recycling process modules for India and China have also been developed.
AIM/Material was used to assess the direct reuse of waste as an effective environmental policy. The results indicated thatsuch direct reuse helps solve waste disposal problems, but delays improvements in energy efficiencies. The
development and integration of a new module into the model will assist further investigation of this topic. ‘AIM/Material
Japan’ examined different reforms to taxation in Japan and the introduction of new environmental policies. It found thatthe impacts of policy changes on the nation’s GDP can be ameliorated by expansion of the environmental industry,technological improvements, an expansion of green consumerism, and subsidisation of waste treatment.
New simple models of AIM/Material were developed for India and China, and a comparative analysis was begun for thesetwo countries on the effects of implementing Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs). The work on China found that theeffects of CDM investment will extend to the national economic level through changes in investment patterns,
technological improvements in production efficiencies, and pollution control. The work on India will be conducted during
2003, and it is intended to include Japan in the comparison.
The structure of the Indian model was also modified so that it could be applied to natural resource use, and trial
simulations examined suitable policies for sustainable development that included constraints on natural assets andpotential countermeasures to these constraints. The simulations showed that investment in the environmental industry
could substantially compensate for economic restrictions caused by policies that reduce production of industrial wastes.
Also, they showed that early investment in land conservation measures could provide substantial national financial
benefits (Figure 8).
Initial attempts have been made to integrate a general equilibrium model with information on natural systems in order toreproduce environmental loads as well as their feedbacks to the economy. Preliminary results indicated that investment
in land management and ecosystem protection at an early stage can help economic growth later, when related
environmental constraints become severe. However, there are also undesirable impacts in other environmental fields
that require complementary countermeasures.
----------------------------//-------------------------------Box 2: Frontier 2
AIM/Material has the prime objective of maintaining economic and material balance. It was constructed so that it could
simultaneously analyse policies on the global climate and domestic environmental issues, and in particular solid waste
management. Three linked modules allow this to occur. A module on the environmental industry disaggregates this6

industry from ordinary production sectors; a module on pollution management disaggregates this function and includes
data for pollution control as inputs for the production function; and a module on solid waste management directs thereuse, final disposal and intermediate management of residues for reuse or disposal.
----------------------------//--------------------------------

7

Disaggregatesenvironmental
industry fromordinary production
sectorspolicFinal consumptionyHousehold

Resource input
po
lic

y

Market

Solid
waste

Waste
treatmentIntermediate
managementpolic

Production
activityy

Recycling

Environmental
industry

Disposal

Investment
po
lic

y

8

Final
disposal

CO2
Capital Labor

EnergyOther intermediate inputs

Resource input
Treats solid waste flows
1) direct reuse2) direct final disposal
3) intermediate management⇒residual: reuse or
final disposal

Inputs for pollution
management

Environmental
investment

Disaggregates and adds
inputs for pollution
management as inputs ofproduction function

Box 2 Features of AIM/Material2.5. AIM/Ecosystem
AIM/Ecosystem is a group of models that simulate water discharge, vegetation dynamics, agricultural productivity,
natural processes of ecosystem change, land-use changes and socio-economic changes (such as human health andeconomic impacts) caused by changes to ecosystems (Box 3). These models can be linked for integrated assessmentsof ecosystem changes, and for the APEIS-related research they will be linked for integrated studies of each country.
AIM/Water is included in the group of AIM/Ecosystem models, but is also used by itself.
AIM/Ecosystem and other AIM models have been used in preliminary assessments of Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MA) scenarios. These assessments found (Figure 9) that:•a ‘Global Policy Focus Scenario’ (globalisation-based development) would protract ecosystem degradation•a ‘Technology Focus Scenario’ would polarise regional ecosystem conditions into two extremes and•a ‘Cross-scale Management Focus Scenario’ (regional-based development) would sustain high regional
incentives for ecosystem conservation.
Part of AIM/Ecosystem was used to model the stress on regional water resources caused by the interaction

between economic development and ecosystem change (Figure 10).
AIM/Ecosystem will continue to be used to produce integrated quantification of changes resulting from the five MA
scenarios for a future world. Currently, it is being developed by linking it with an ecological model to illustrate impacts on
ecosystems and the costs of those impacts, and related feedbacks and the economic impact of those feedbacks. It will
also be applied to other problems, such as air and water pollution, land degradation, loss of biodiversity, and theimplications of household preferences for those problems. Researchers will use the model to investigate theenvironmental consciousness of households and their willingness to pay for environmental services. This will be reflectedin the development of future scenarios.
AIM/Water is a component of AIM/Ecosystem. It reproduces the processes of water discharge, water demand, watersupply and water pollution (Figure 11), and will be important in assessing the interactions between city development andenvironmental impact as urbanisation continues in the Asia-Pacific region.
AIM/Water is currently being developed by the AIM team to analyse issues related to water use, and will incorporate an
existing AIM model on agricultural water use. When AIM/Water is integrated with this model, it will be able to:•analyse water demand and availability to determine the level of water stress•evaluate the costs, benefits and effectiveness of environmental policies and investment

9•conduct analyses of long-term scenarios of water use, taking into account changes in socio-economic factors,
life-styles and climate change.

In its preliminary form, AIM/Water was used to examine the use of treated water in metropolitan Tokyo’s 23 wards(Figure 12). It estimated water consumption by domestic, industrial and commercial users, and the experience gained
from this exercise will be used when modelling the water use of other Asian cities and countries.

----------------------------//-------------------------------Box 3: Frontier 3
AIM/Ecosystem treats natural resources and environmental services as indispensable inputs to economic production andpeople’s lives. It uses descriptions of these services, environmental protection activities and interactions that produce
economic consequences, such as air quality control, water regulation and erosion, to model the interactions between
human activities and environmental processes. The structure of the model is similar to that of AIM/CGE, but includes asector for protecting natural capital (‘Natural Capital Maintenance’) and a sector to express the production ofenvironmental goods and services (‘Environmental Goods/Services Production’), which are linked through ‘Natural
Capital’ (land, water, air and other natural ecosystems). These provide feedback on environmental impacts into themodel by using inputs from the market and the household and government sectors.
----------------------------//--------------------------------

10Intermediate,energy,capital, labor
Environmental
services/goods

Drivers of
ecosystem change

Production andservice/goods
sectorProduced
goods andservice

Environmental
services/goods
ImportExportMarket11

Environmental
service/goods
production
sectors

Intermediate
energy,Feedback mechanism ofcapital,ecosystem to socio-economy labor

Natural capital
Maintenance andaugmentation services/goods

AbroadCapitalLabor

Naturalcapitalmaintenancesectors

Final demand
Recreationaland cultural
services
Maintenancecosts

Households,
government

Box 3 The structure of AIM/Ecosystem

2.6. Database
The strategic database will store all IEA simulation results and statistics related to the AIM/APEIS family of models, aswell as the monitoring and processing data from the IEM sub-project and information related to the RISPO case studies(Figures 13 and 14). It will contain data on several hundred social and technical innovations, basic data on Pressures,
States, Responses, Driving Forces and Social and Institutional Capacities related to environmental issues in eachcountry, and detailed information on countermeasure scenarios and their impacts. It will be able to select the best mix ofinnovative options by Nation and other specific fields using the data that it stores. It will also store information on
Environmental Indicators and Environmental Innovation Indicators that can be used to represent the changing conditionsof socio-environmental problems and the impacts of the application of different innovations.
Preparation of the Strategic Database and Indicators advances well. As the basic framework for the database has been
completed, staff have begun collecting suitable data on social and technological innovations and environmental
indicators for input (Figure 15). Also, work continues on improving the human–machine interface for this user-friendly
software.
The main tasks over the next 12 months are to add data on costs, organization, environmental effects and lifetimes ofmore than 400 technical and social innovations; input information on the pressure, state, response, driving force andcapacity of basic data and baseline (‘business as usual’) projections for each country and policy intervention scenario;
and develop a simple calculation module to estimate the effects of innovations. The module will identify the top 10
innovations for specific environmental protection situations.

2.7. Scenario development
Long-term emission scenarios were supplied to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These were based on
simulations using AIM/CGE and AIM/Energy. Figure 16 shows projected CO2 and SO2 emission scenarios over the next
300 years. These scenarios will be input into climate simulations for the IPCC assessment report, and are aimed atstabilising atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450–750 ppm.
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) prepared four future
development paths. The resulting scenarios were Market Forces; Policy Reform, based on Market Forces, Fortress
World and Great Transition. The emission scenarios were supplied from AIM/Energy and AIM/Trend. Figure 17 showsthat a comprehensive emission policy is needed for the Asian region to reduce CO2 emissions.
Three scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment were simulated to clarify the relationships between
ecosystem change and socio-environmental change. These scenarios were Globalisation, Regionalisation andTechnology Introduction. Figure 18 shows the projected NOx emissions released by the burning of biomass for the three12scenarios in six regions. Technological innovation is very necessary to reduce biomass-energy-related emissions.
Figure 19 shows the projected change in the area of cropland for the three scenarios and six regions. The
Regionalisation scenario produces serious competition between agricultural land-use and forest protection / nature
conservation. This kind of tension in land use could encourage technical innovations for regional ecosystemmanagement, and the modelling of the Regionalisation scenario illustrates this potential.
Scenarios were also supplied to the International Energy Agency, the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and thePacific) ESCAP, ECO-ASIA and international academic societies, such as the Energy Modelling Forum at Stanford
University and the Global Scenario Comparison conducted by Kassel University.

2.8. Capacity building
The IEA team has integrated capacity building into the process of developing and applying its models to ensure that its
work is distributed and used in the Asia-Pacific region. Input from foreign experts, especially those in developing
countries, is essential for further model development in Japan and for cooperation in the adaptation of models to suit local
conditions and perspectives.
Work on capacity building by the sub-group has had three facets. The first was the preparation of Guideline Manuals for
AIM/Trend and AIM/Energy. These manuals were transferred to appropriate experts in foreign countries. Also, the AIMteam has invited four researchers – two from China and two from India – to train in Japan using the AIM models. The
team has held two training workshops in India and China, which were well attended and most successful. The activities of
the Indian workshop can be found at http://www.nies.go.jp/social/aim/workshop.htm.

2.9. Preliminary Message
The preliminary work from the IEA sub-project has produced a number of useful and important conclusions:1.

The potential for introducing technological innovations for environmental protection in the region is very large,
but differs between countries

2.

The effects of technological innovations would be increased by combining them with social innovations, andregional cooperation is needed to achieve this3.

Integration of top-down and bottom-up incentives would encourage innovation introduction, and investment inprotecting natural capital would bring double dividends through environmental protection and socio-economic
development

13

4.

The following of globalisation policies on development and the environment would support the introduction of
innovations for reducing waste emissions, but would hinder the introduction of innovative policies for ecosystemconservation

5.

Introducing technological innovations alone encourages polarisation of the region’s capacity for managing
environmental issues

These preliminary conclusions will be subject to more detailed assessment and tested and refined over the next 12months.

14

3. How can the APEIS-IEA products be applied for policy formulation/implementation works?
The environmental assessments of IEA can provide policy-makers with the ability to visualize the consequences ofenvironmental policies and the benefits of environmental innovations such as changes in consumption patterns,
development of the eco-industries, and deployment of advanced technologies. Sophisticated models help policy-makers
understand the complicated relationships between economic growth and environmental protection, as well as the powerof innovation to steer human activities in a sustainable direction.
There are several strands to the intended activities of the IEA sub-project. AIM/Trend will be extended to other regions tocompare their trends and changes, so that it can be applied at a global level. Full versions of AIM/CGE, AIM/Material withmaterial balance and recycling process modules for India and China, AIM/Water and the full version of AIM/Energy forextended countries will be completed. A preliminary version of AIM/Ecosystem will be prepared. The strategic databaseand indicators for the Asia-Pacific region, concentrating on ‘environmental efficiency’, will be finalised, and full projectionsof environmental trends and full assessments of innovative options focusing on selected countries will be provided. The
sub-project will also hold training workshops in the region at locations yet to be decided.
The ultimate objective of this work is to help policy makers understand the relationships between economic growth andenvironmental conservation, as well as the role of innovations, to break through the trade-offs between these factors andcreate sustainable socio-economic development. The models and databases will be able to be used to train experts on
local areas who can play crucial roles in such processes.
Specifically, using the AIM modules and databases, local modellers and policy/decision makers will be able to develop
the most appropriate innovation strategies for specific socio-environmental problems in their areas, taking into accountlocal social, economic and environmental conditions.
By using the strategic database, policy makers will be able to review future scenarios and related information andsuggest narrative changes to the modellers, who will be able to transform the suggested changes into new simulations.
This process of discussion and revision can continue until desirable future scenarios are achieved.

15

4. Relevant Information
Participating organisations and relevant Internet sites
Energy Research Institute, Beijing, China
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China
http://english.igsnrr.ac.cn/
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
http://www.iimahd.ernet.in/
Sangmyung University, Chung Nam, Korea
http://libnt.smuc.ac.kr/index.htm
Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Korea
http://www.kei.re.kr/eng/
Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand
http://www.ait.ac.th/
Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia
http://www.upm.edu.my/WebsiteEnglish/
Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
Fuji Research Institute Corporation, Tokyo, Japan
http://www.fuji-ric.co.jp/english/profile/
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
http://www.nies.go.jp/----------------------------//-------------------------------Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
http://www.nies.go.jp/social/aim/index.htm

16AIM/Energy

AIM/Ecosystem
Temperature

A bottom-up
technology selection modelof energy use
and emissions at country
and local
level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem models,
Sunshine
including a vegetation
dynamics model, a waterLand use
Water resource
resource model, anagricultural productivity Socio-economic
Crop
indicator
Productivity
model and a health impact
Impact on food demand
model

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology &land use model for AsiaPacific region

AIM/Material
A environment-economy
integrated model withmaterial balance andrecycling process modules

AIM Family

A reduced-form
model to project
future socioeconomic
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleA general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)

Technology assessment

AIM/Top-downTechnology needs

Research on new technologies

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental
trend

Korea

China
India
ThailandJapan

Figure 1: AIM Model Development for APEIS

Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)
Households, government, industry
Intermediate, energy, capital, labor, produced goods and service, tax
AEEI
structure change
technology change

Price effect-substitution
elasticity

IncomeeffectEmissions

Service supply

Service demand

Technologies for
mitigation options

Technologies inconversion sectors

Technologies indemand sectors

Investment
effectTechnology mix

Technology Bottom-up: AIM/Enduse
Figure 2: The General Structure of AIM/Trend

17

Billions dollars

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
0

2002
MF(2032)
PR(2032)
FW(2032)
GT(2032)
2002
MF(2032)
PR(2032)
FW(2032)
GT(2032)
2002
MF(2032)
PR(2032)
FW(2032)
GT(2032)
2002
MF(2032)
PR(2032)
FW(2032)
GT(2032)
2002
MF(2032)
PR(2032)
FW(2032)
GT(2032)

50

South Asia

South East
Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

Environmental Market Scale in 2002 and 2032

ANZ and South
Pacific

AFG
IND
NPL
BRN
LAO
PHL
VNM
JPN
TWN
TJK
AUS
KIR
PNG
VUT

BGD
IRN
PAK
KHM
MYS
SGP
CHN
KOR
KAZ
TKM
NZL
NRU
PYF
WSM

BTN
MDV
LKA
IDN
MMR
THA
PRK
MNG
KGZ
UZB
FJI
PLW
TON
SLB

MF: Market Forces
PR: Policy Reform
FW: Fortress World
GT: Great Transition

Figure 3: A Projection of the Development of the Environmental Industry
using AIM/Trend

Figure 4: The Flow of Biomass in Food Production as to be used by
AIM/Trend

18Production
and service
sectorIntermediate energy,
capital, labor
Environmental
pollution reduction,
Energy recovery
Environmental
countermeasure
options

ImportExportMarketPrice
activity levels

Capitallabor

Produced
goods andserviceFinaldemandHouseholds,
government(MACs,
technology menu)

AbroadCapital, labor,
resources, land

Figure 5: The Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia – 10 regions)User interface

User

Display of output
with pivot table and chart
S um o f Va lu e E n erg y_ De vi c e
Re m o va l
C K1
CK2
C OL B LR
N ON
N ON
N ON
SF GD
4 ,7 00 ,00 0
1 ,300 ,0 0 0
24 ,528 ,0 0 0
1 ,752 ,0 0 0
4 ,7 00 ,00 0
1 ,300 ,0 0 0
24 ,528 ,0 0 0
1 ,752 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 00 ,00 0
26 ,134 ,5 3 3
1 ,664 ,4 0 0
6 ,1 80 ,00 0
27 ,624 ,8 3 4
1 ,584 ,4 6 6
6 ,3 65 ,40 0
29 ,010 ,7 0 7
1 ,510 ,8 7 6
6 ,5 56 ,36 2
30 ,301 ,8 3 6
1 ,442 ,6 6 2
6 ,7 53 ,05 3
31 ,506 ,4 1 8
1 ,379 ,0 9 1
6 ,9 55 ,64 5
32 ,631 ,5 4 3
1 ,319 ,5 8 7
7 ,1 64 ,31 4
33 ,683 ,4 4 7
1 ,263 ,6 9 4
7 ,3 79 ,24 4
34 ,667 ,6 8 0
1 ,211 ,0 3 5
7 ,6 00 ,62 1
35 ,589 ,2 3 2
1 ,161 ,3 0 0
7 ,8 28 ,64 0
36 ,452 ,6 1 8
1 ,114 ,2 2 6
Y ear_b a s e
1 99 5
1 99 6
1 99 7
1 99 8
1 99 92 00 02 00 1
2 00 22 00 32 00 42 00 5AIM /Enduse
Database
Export module

ImportmoduleExportmoduleAIM /Enduse Database System (M S Access)Input fileof GIS System

0.00
12.50
25.00
37.50
50.00
62.50
75.00
87.50
100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50> = 200.00

AIM /Enduse GIS System(IDRISI 32)

0 .00
1 2.50
2 5.003 7.505 0.006 2.50
7 5.008 7.501 00.0 0
1 12.5 0
1 25.0 0
1 37.5 0
1 50.0 0
1 62.5 0
1 75.0 0
1 87.5 0> =20 0.00

AIM /Enduse
GAM S program

Input file of
GAM S Program

Output file of
GAM S Program

AIM/Enduse General Algebraic Modelling System (GAM S) Program

Figure 6: The Development of AIM/Energy

19Index 2000 = 1

Steel

1.2
1

Cement

1.05
1

0.8

0.95
0.6

0.9

0.4
India

0.2

China

0
2000

2010

2020

Paper and Pulp

1.02

India
China

0.85
0.8

1
2030
0.98

2000

2010

2020

2030

0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9

India

0.88

China

0.86
2000

2010

2020

2030

Figure 7: Projections of energy intensity for selectedindustries in India and China

Box 1 AIM technology file (extract)
Classification
Iron & SteelNon-ferrous metal

Building materials
Chemical industry

Petrochemical Industry
Paper-making
TextileMachinery
Irrigation
Farming works
Agricultural
products
process
Fishery
Animal husbandry
Space heating in resident
Cooling in resident
Lighting in resident
Cooking & Hot water inresident
Electric ApplianceSpace heating in service sector
CoolingLighting
Cooking & Hot waterElectric Appliance
Passenger & freight transport

Technologies (equipment)
Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc furnace, DC-electric arc furnace,
Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rollingmachine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment of coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace(TRT), Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.
Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer, Electrolytic aluminum with upperinsert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast
furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zincsmelting with vertical pot method.
Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-heater, dry process rotary kiln withpre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;
Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.
Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column, Shifting equipment of sulphur
removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process, Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator,
Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method; Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace,
Equipment of residue heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter; Fertilizer
production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization
Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities of cracking with hydrogen adding,
Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator, Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane
cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene.
Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water, facilities of finishing, facilities ofresidue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.
Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing process, Garment making, Air
conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.
Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electrichydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heatprocessing furnace, Electric processing furnace; Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor
Tractor, Other agricultural machine
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.
Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines.
Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric heater, Brick bed linked withstove (Chinese KANG).
Air conditioner, Electric fan.
Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.
Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove, firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.
Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.
Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.
System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.
Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.
Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.
Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.
Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.; Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel
vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.
Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.
Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

20Environmental constraint
environmental+ early investment

Environmental constraint
environmental+ delayed investment

0.00

GDP loss(from baseline:%)

-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
-3.50

2020

2030

Year

Figure 8: Indian GDP Loss and Recovery caused byEnvironmental Constraints and Investment

Disaggregatesenvironmental
industry fromordinary production
sectors

Household

po
lic
y

Final consumption

Resource input
po
lic
y

MarketRecycling
Solid
waste

Waste
treatmentIntermediate
management

po
lic
y

Production
activity

Environmental
industry

Disposal

Investment
po
lic
y

Final
disposal

CO2
Capital Labor

EnergyOther intermediate inputs

Inputs for pollution
management

Resource input
Treats solid waste flows
1) direct reuse2) direct final disposal
3) intermediate management⇒residual: reuse or
final disposal

Environmental
investment

Disaggregates and adds
inputs for pollution
management as inputs ofproduction function

Box 2 Features of AIM/Material

214000000

Scenarios

3950000
Regionalisation

Forest area (‘000ha)

3900000
3850000

Technology
Introduction

3800000

Globalisation

3750000
3700000
3650000
3600000
3550000
3500000
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Figure 9: Projections for the world’s area of forests under different scenarios

2000

Water Stress Index(ratio between total withdrawal
and renewable water resource)
Globalisation2020
1 5 10
0

20

40

60

80 100 ～(%)

2050

Figure 10: Simulations of global water stress prepared using AIM/Water

22

Watershed level
Water Withdrawals

z Populationz Incomez Technology

Water
Use

z Domesticz Industryz Climatez Agriculture

New
Watershed Development
Water Stress

Existing model
developed by
AIM/Impactz Land Coverz Climate

Grid-level
Water Availability

Water
Availability

z Runoffz Recharge

100000

90000

90000

80000

80000

70000

70000

60000

60000

50000

50000

40000

40000

30000

30000

20000

20000

10000

10000

0

Measured water use (‘000m3/yr)

100000ChiyodaChuo
MinatoShinjuku
BunkyoTaito
SumidaKoto
ShinagawaMeguroOta
SetagayaShibuyaNakanoSuginami
Toshima
Kita
Arakawa
Itabashi
NerimaAdachi
Katsushika
Edogawa

Estimated water use (‘000m3/yr

Figure 11: A Block Diagram of the Impact Model for Water Resources0

23 wards in Metropolitan Tokyo
Baths

Showers

Laundry

Toilet flushing

Meals

Hand washing

Drinking water

Measured water use

Figure 12: Calculated domestic water use in the 23 Wards of Tokyo

23

Intermediate,energy,capital, labor
Environmental
services/goods

Drivers of
ecosystem change

Production andservice/goods
sectorProduced
goods andservice

Environmental
services/goods
ImportExportMarketEnvironmental
service/goods
production
sectors

Intermediate
energy,Feedback mechanism ofcapital,ecosystem to socio-economy labor

Natural capital
Maintenance andaugmentation services/goods

AbroadCapitalLabor

Naturalcapitalmaintenancesectors

Final demand
Recreationaland cultural
services
Maintenancecosts

Households,
government

Box 3 The structure of AIM/Ecosystem

Innovational Work System
Outputs
Outputs

Outputs
AIM-Trend
AIM-Top-down
Policymaking

AIM-Energy
Monitoring &ProcessingDatafrom IEM

CommonDatabase

Statistics
AIM-Material

AIM-Ecosystem

Outputs

Outputs

Figure 13: The Way the Strategic Database will be used24

b. Country Inventory
Databasea. Innovational Countermeasure
Database

Social & Institutional
Response
State
Pressure

IEM

Innovation
Countermeasure
●

IEA
RISPO

IEA

Basic
Data

Statistics●

Government

Government

Countermeasure
Scenario●

Research Inst.

Research Inst.

BaU Case●

Future Estimate
ModuleAIM

Effect ofCountermeasure●

Intervention
Case●
Innovation
Indicators

Valuation
ModuleValuation
Module●Environmental
Indicators

Recommended
Countermeasure

Policy Makers●●

Figure 14: The Strategic Database and Indicators

Sector-wise Index
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Factor Analysis
16

Steel

1.20
1.00

Chemical

0.80

Non-metallic

0.60
Non-ferrous

0.40

Transport eqp.

0.20

Machinery

CO2

Mining

0.00

Food

-0.20

Paper

POP
GDP/POP
ENE/GDP
CO2/ENE

-0.40

Wood

-0.60

China

Construction

India

Japan

Korea,
Rep.

Thailand

UnitedStatesTextilesAgriculture
Commercial
Residential
Trasportation

In d e x I
80

Non-specified

60
40
14

In d e x V

I n d e x II

20

12

0

10

8

In d e x IV

In d e x I II

6

4

2

0
0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000Progress of Innovation

Radar Chart ofEnvironmental Innovation

Figure 15: Innovation Assessment Indicators

25

CO2 Emissions
18.00

A1B-450 AIM
A1T-450 MESSAGE

16.00

B1-450 IMAGE
B2-450 MARIA

14.00

A2-450 PETRO
A1FI-450 MiniCAM

GtC

12.00

A1B-550 AIM
A1T-550 MESSAGE

10.00

A2-550 ASF
B2-550 MESSAGE

8.00

B1-550 WorldScan
A1FI-550 MiniCAM

6.00

B1-550 LDNE
A1B-650 AIM

4.00

A2-650 PETRO
A1FI-650 MiniCAM

2.00

A2-750 ASF

2300

2280

2290

2260

2270

2250

2230

2240

2210

2220

2200

2180

2190

2160

2170

2150

2130

2140

2110

2120

2100

2080

2090

2060

2070

2050

2030

2040

2010

2020

1990

2000

A1FI-750 MiniCAM

0.00

SO2 Emissions
140.00A1B-450 AIM
A1T-450 MESSAGE
120.00B1-450 IMAGE
B2-450 MARIA
A2-450 PETRO

100.00A1FI-450 MiniCAM

A1T-550 MESSAGE
A2-550 ASF
B2-550 MESSAGE

60.00

B1-550 WorldScan
A1FI-550 MiniCAM
B1-550 LDNE

40.00

A1B-650 AIM
A2-650 PETRO
A1FI-650 MiniCAM

20.00

A2-750 ASF

2300

2280

2290

2270

2250

2260

2230

2240

2220

2200

2210

2180

2190

2170

2150

2160

2130

2140

2120

2100

2110

2080

2090

2070

2050

2060

2030

2040

2020

2010

1990

2000

A1FI-750 MiniCAM
0.00

Figure 16: Long-term Emission Scenarios of CO2 and SO2 for the IPCC

8000
7000
6000
5000
MtC

MtS

A1B-550 AIM
80.00

4000
3000
2000

Historical data
Markets Forces
Policy Reform
Fortress WorldGreat Transition

1000
0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Figure 17: Energy-related CO2 Emission Scenarios for the UNEP - GEO

26

Biomass Energy

Globalisation
OECD

140

FSU/CE
SS-Africa

NOx Emission (MtN)

120

LAM
ME-Africa

100

Asia

Regionalisation

OECD

80

FSU/CE
SS-Africa

60

LAM
ME-Africa

40

Asia

Technology Introduction
OECD

20

FSU/CE
SS-Africa

0
1980

LAM

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

ME-Africa
Asia

Year

Figure 18: Preliminary projections of NOx emissions from the burning of
biomass under different development scenarios

CroplandTechnology Introduction
OECD

FSU/CE600

AFRICA
LAM

500

ASIA

Cropland (Mha)ME

Globalisation

OECD

400

FSU/CE
AFRICA

300

LAM
ASIA
ME

200

RegionalisationOECD
FSU/CE

100

AFRICA
LAM

0
1980

ASIA

2000

2020

2040
Year

2060

2080

2100

ME

Figure 19: Preliminary projections of the area of cropland under different
development scenarios

27Web site
Integrated Environmental Assessment（IEA）

http://www.nies.go.jp/social/aim/apeis/

Ministry of the Environment,Japan