26th AIM International Workshop
Theme: GHG Mitigation in Asia
Low Carbon Development Trends in India
aProf. Amit Garg
September 3-4, 2020

Development and Climate Change: SDG and NDC

India has been setting ambitious targets to achieved its development and Paris Agreement commitment by 2030

Development

MDG (2000 – 2015)

SDG (2015 -2030)

Source: UN MDG 2000

Source: UN SDG 2015

Climate ChangeaSource: NAPCC 2008

Source: https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/, 2020

Development and Climate Change: Future NDCs and LTS

aAdditionally, India will submit its LTS andupdated NDC in near futureIndia is the largest country
that is on the pathway toachieve its Pariscommitment

Soft Linked Top-down, Bottom-up, Hybrid andGIS modeling System for India
Bottom-Up Models
Top-Down/Hybrid Models
GCAMGDP,Productivity

IMACLIM

Energy Prices

EnergyBalance

TIMES
End-useDemandGDP,
PricesDemandProjection
model

Scenarios
TechnologySharesEnd-useDemandGIS Based and Other Modelling-

LPS and Area Sources
CO2
Non CO2 (9 gases)
1350 LPS, 641 districts
Water Energy nexus –LPS level modelling-City level mitigation
LPS + Area sources
Energy efficiency
Public transport, EV
Rooftop SolarWaste management
Landuse change
Peri-urban agriculture-CCUS
Source-Sink match & Pipeline costing optimization
BECCS model (coupled with EOR)

-Industry/ Corporate level modelling (other)
GREENEX with Bombay Stock Exchange
Energy/Revenue, CO2 /Revenue, share price and carbon

aLULUCF- 1 km x 1 km Land-use mapping for entire
India- Water flows from climate models- District level Energy balance model- Energy plantation modelling (Districtlevel 192 databases)- Afforestation, Reforestation and SoilCarbon Sequestration modelling- 47 cities landuse mapping and modelling(30 x 30 m) – linked with heat mortality,flooding- Property pricing and climate extremes• Scenario
database• RCPinterface

AIM/ENDUSEIndian CO2 Emissions
Scenario
Cumulative CO2 mitigation 2011-2050:
BAU to INDC is 18 bt-CO2
BAU to low carbon futures ranges 29-57 bt-CO2

aBudgetCO2/capita(2050)BAU (NPi)

165

3.2

INDC

147

2.7

2 °C_early action(NPi2020_high)

136

2.3

2 °C_late action(INDC2030_low)

128

1.9

1.5 °C(NPi2020_verylow)

108

1.2Notes:
Carbon budget 2011-2050 in billion ton-CO2(scenario name) denote CDLINKS nameScenarios

Bt-CO2(% reduction)

Energy Efficiency(bt-CO2)

Renewables(bt-CO2)

Demand Reduction(bt-CO2)

CCS(bt-CO2)

BAU to INDC

18 (11%)10710

INDC to 2 °C

11-19 (8-13%)

1-2

3-5

3-4

4-8

INDC to 1.5 °C

39 (27%)46623

Cumulative CO2 budget: India needs room for development, results within higher range of global models.
Source: Vishwanathan, S.S., Tiwari, V., Garg, A. and Shukla, P.R. (2018)

Sectoral Emissions
Energy Supply(Power)

Industry

aBuildingTransport

Power, Industry and Transport mainly responsible for
reduction in emissions in low carbons scenarios
Source: Vishwanathan, S.S., Tiwari, V., Garg, A. and Shukla, P.R. (2018)

Energy Transformation: Investments
These transformations will likely need investments of US$ 6–8 trillion between 2015 and2030 across various scenarios

a39–52% shared bypower sector

13–17% shared bytransport sector

19–25% shared byindustry sector

11–14% shared bybuilding sector

Source: Vishwanathan and Garg (2020)

Sustainable Development : Macroeconomic Assessment
Low carbon pathways and sustainable development can co-exist with policy alignments

aSource: Gupta et. al 2019; Gupta et. al 2019

Low-Carbon Developments in Indian Transport Sector

aSource: Gupta and Garg 2020

Integrating Transport & Power sector transitions
90

900

80

800

CO2 emissions (Mt)

Carbon content of India's
power grid (KtCO2/PJ)

1000

70
60
50
40
30
20

2050

700
600

2050

BAU
2030

400

CNT

2030

300

2012

200

DEVF

SYNCH

2050

100

1002010
BAU

2020

2030

DEVF

2040
CNT

2050
SYNCH

00.07

2060

0.09

a0.11

0.13

Cost per unit service ($/rtkm)

Modal share of total road and railpassenger transport

Modal share of total road and rail
freight transport
10010080% Share80

Share %2030

50060
406040202000

Rail-F

Source: Gupta and Garg 2020

Road-F

Rail-P

Road-PDevelopment, Vulnerability, Adaptation : Indian Cities

aSource: Garg et al. 2018; Shah and Garg 2017; Avashia and Garg 2020; Avashia et al. 2020

Selected Recent Past and Ongoing Projects
INTERNATIONAL• Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE funded by H2020) (2019-2023)• Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP BIICS funded IKI and BMUB) (2018-2021)• Linking Climate and Development Policies – Levering International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS) (2015-2019)• Modelling and informing low-emission strategies (MILES) (2014-2017)• Low climate impact scenarios and the implications of required tight emission control strategies (LIMITS) (2012-2014)• Assessment of climate change mitigation pathways and evaluation of the robustness of mitigation cost estimates (AMPERE) (2011-2014)• United States India Joint Center for Building Energy Research and Development: Grid responsive buildings (CBERD) (2012-2017)
NATIONAL• Development of a prosumer driven integrated SMART grid (2018-2021)• Risk and uncertainty assessment for Critical Railway Infrastructure due to impacts of Climate change (2018- 2019)• Estimating Energy Sector GHG Emissions from Unorganized sectors (2016-2018)• Coordination of Energy Sector Inventory (2011-2018)

aMITIGATION: SECTOR/TECHNOLOGY ASSESMENT• Electric Vehicles: Indian Market Study (2017-2018)• Energy plantations: Integrating land-use, water, energy and sustainable development at local level (2013-2015)• Techno-economic Assessment of CO2 Capture and Storage Potential in India: A Policy Perspective (2013-2015)• Study of Energy Balance of Rural India Using Geospatial Inputs (Energy and Mass Exchange in Vegetative Systems) (2013-2015)
STATE• Revision of Gujarat's State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) (2019-2020)
CITY• Can Peri-Urban Agriculture help to feed "hungry cities” (funded by GiZ) (2020-2021)• Economic cost of impacts and adaptation to extreme rainfall event induced flooding for selected Indian cities (2016- 2018)• Linking GHG and local air pollution in Delhi (2018) – video case study• Solar rooftop in India: Sky is the limit (2020) - video case study

Future Projects – Discussion for AIM Family
I. Modelling Non-CO2 gases in all sectors (in Asian countries) In most of the past and current literature, the focus has been on CO2 emissions.
 Non-CO2 emission also contribute a significant amount to the warming.
 Presently, agriculture and livestock related emissions contribute above 65% of Indian CH4 emissions and above
90% of N2O emissions.
 We can work on proposal to model non-CO2 gases in Asia to contribute towards Global Stocktake 2023.
Selected references on the work published in past:Garg, A., Shukla, P.R. and Upadhyay, J. (2012).
Climatic Change, 110 (3), 755-782. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0094-9.
Garg, A., Kankal, B., and Shukla, P.R. (2011).
. Atmospheric
Environment, 45, 4922-4929. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.004.
Garg, A., Shukla, P. R., and Kapshe, M. (2006).
Atmospheric
Environment, 40, 4608-4620. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.045.
Garg, A., Shukla, P. R., Kapshe, M., and Menon, D. (2004).
. Atmospheric Environment, 38 (13), 1965-1977.
Garg, A., Shukla P. R., Bhattacharya S. and Dadhwal V.K. (2001).
Atmospheric Environment 35(4), 703-713. doi:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00316-2.

aII. Climate Change Mitigation: Mega-cities in Asia
 Cities produce 70 per cent of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions.
 The 50 largest cities together emit greenhouse gases equivalent to 2,600 megatons of carbon dioxide per year. Thatis more than some countries. For instance, Russia emits about 2,200 MT and Japan about 1,400 MT per year.
 We can work on policy assessment towards mitigation in selected mega-cities in AIM partner Asian countries.

Thanka you
amitgarg@iima.ac.in
Webpage: https://www.iima.ac.in/web/faculty/faculty-profiles/amit-garg