AIM/Enduse:
Application to Bangladesh

Rahul Pandey
IIM, Lucknow, India

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

Presentation scheme• Overview of Bangladesh’s energy-economy• Data estimation• Scenario assumptions• Preliminary results• Agenda for further study

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

A Bangladesh – India Comparison
ItemBangladesh

GDPPopulation
GDP growth
Agriculture
Domestic reserves
Commercial energy$ 47.8 Billion$ 514.4 Billion
132 Million
1000 Million
5.5-6.0%
4.5-6.0% (1998-2002)
35% of GDP
26% of GDP
Mainly Nat.Gas
Mainly Coal
Gas dominated (71%) Coal dominated (> 50%)
(in Power, Fertilizer)

Accessibility to elec. 18%
Persons/vehicle
1000

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

India(in Power, Heavy industry)

80%
143

A Bangladesh – India Comparison
Item

Bangladesh

India

Nat.Gas reserves
Nat.Gas production
Oil reserves
Oil production
Oil imports
Coal reserves
Coal production
Electricity capacity
Electricity mix

16-38 Tcf
320 Bcf
57 Mill.bbl
4500 bbl/day
57,500 bbl/day
3.8 GW
87%G, 6%O, 6%H

26 Tcf
800 Bcf
5400 Mill.bbl
759,000 bbl/day
1,200,000 bbl/day
82 Bt360 Mt
112 GW
70%C, 18%H, 2%N

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

A Bangladesh – India Comparison
ItemBangladeshIndia

Per capita comm.energy use 88 kgoe
317 kgoePer capita C emission
0.05 MtC
0.25 MtC
Fuel share of C emission
65%G, 34%O, 1%C 65%C, 30%O, 5%G
Traditional energy scenario:
Biomass energy use
13.8 Mtoe

75% people use
biomass for cooking

163 Mtoe

Severe constraint onbiomass supply
AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Bangladesh: Data estimation
Examples of estimation of service demands in 1995:
Rural cooking demand (in cooking hrs) == (RPOP / RHS) * DCH * 365
Urban lighting demand (in lighting hrs) == (UPOP / UHS) * UNL * UDLH * 365
Refrigerator demand (in no. of refrigerators) == {(UPOP / UHS) + (RPOP / RHS)}* SAT * DUH * 365
Calibration of aggregate data with IEA Balance Tables
AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Bangladesh: BAU Assumptions
Drivers for service demand forecasts(from 2000–2032):• GDP• Population• Industry value added• Commercial value added• Transport demand• Irrigated area

4.7%
1.22%
5.7%
5.2%
4.7%
0.66%

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Bangladesh: Three Scenarios• BAU– Moderate efficiency improvement assumptions– Declining share of biomass cookstoves– No Tax• C-Tax 100– Constant tax of $100/tC from 2010 onwards• C-Tax 100 + Hi Efficiency– Constant tax of $100/tC from 2010 onwards, AND
More opportunities for efficiency improvements indevices in all sectors
AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Bangladesh: BAU Results
LPS_Area (All) LPS (All) Region (All) Removal (All) Sector (All) Kind ENG Energy_Device (All)

B illio n s

合計 / Value

507050Col

456060Oil50404035Gas

40

WAT

403030M TOE

CoalItem

252020Natural gas

SOROIL

Gas

GAS
30

COABMS

20

Oil products

OilElectricity
BiomassEle

1520

ColBms1010Bms

52032

Year

2729

31
20

2020

1720

25

1520

20

1320

23

11

20

20

09

20

20

07

20

1905

20

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

2103

20

Primary energy supply(Mtoe)

2097011901995
951995 1996 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

20--1901995

10YearFinal energy use(Mtoe)

2032

AIM-Bangladesh: BAU Results
LPS_Area (All) LPS (All) Region (All) Removal (All) Sector CV-ELE Kind ENG Energy_Device (All)合計 / Value2035

B illio n s

20Oth18

1630

OthRes
Trn30

1625

14

Commercial
Agriculture

Item
WATSOR
OPR

10Gas

20

NGS

8

COL

820

Residential

15

IndOilM t-C

1212

Transport
Industry

Electricity gen.

BMS

1064104Ele

5Year2032212527293120202020152023132020

11202009
20

1707201905
202001

03
2097

Primary energy inelectricity (Mtoe)

20-01995

201995 1996 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

19-95

01995

ColBms

192Year

CO2 emissions(MtC)
AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

2032

AIM-Bangladesh: Scenario Results
30
25

Most reduction
due to efficiency
improvement

BAU
CTax $100
CTax $100 + Hi Efficiency

15300

10250

2005BAUt-C / k to e

Mt-C

20150

-C Tax $100

100

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Year

Carbon emissions

2025

2030

C Tax $100 + Hi Efficiency

5002000

2005

2010

2015

Year

2020

2025

2030

Carbon intensity of energy

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Bangladesh: Comparison with India
800
700

Most reduction due
to fuel switch

BAU

500

450

C-Tax(US$100/t-C)

400

BAU_Coal

400

350

BAU_Gas300

300

C_Tax-Coal250

C_Tax-Gas

Mtoe

Mt-C

600

200

200

10002000

150100

2005

2010

2015

2020
50Year02000

Carbon emissions

2025

2030

2005

2010

2015

2020

YearFuel switch
AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba

2025

2030

AIM-Bangladesh: Issues for further study• Trade of natural gas with India– Potential for regionally optimal solutions byfacilitating fuel switch in India and penetration ofefficient industrial technologies in Bangladesh• Uncertainty in availability/price of natural gas• Non-CO2 gases

AIM Workshop March 2003
NIES, Tsukuba