Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: The People's Republic of Bangladesh
Project: Kanchpur, Meghna and Gumti 2nd Bridges Construction and Existing Bridges
Rehabilitation Project (I)Loan Agreement: March 10, 2013
Loan Amount: 28,945 million yen
Borrower: The Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh
2.

Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector in Bangladesh
In the People's Republic of Bangladesh (hereinafter called Bangladesh), with recent
steady growth of the economy that maintains an annual GDP growth rate of about 6%,
the cargo volume handled in the country increased about 8-fold in the 30 years from1975 to 2005. In recent years the cargo volume has been increasing by 6-7% per year.
The volume of passengers also increased about 6.5-fold in the same period. Bothcargo volume and number of passengers have been increasing. The major transportmodes in the country are inland transport by water, railway and road, and roads areheavily used, for more than 80% of passenger and cargo transport (2005). However,as the development of new roads is not catching up with the increasing transportvolume and lack of maintenance has deteriorated existing road conditions, passengerand cargo transport is negatively affected.
(2) Development Policies for the Road Sector in Bangladesh and the Priority of theProject
The Sixth Five Year Plan (FY2011/12-2015/16) clearly states that, in the road sectorof Bangladesh, a modern and efficient road transport system will play an importantrole in achieving the plan and Vision 2021, a midterm vision of the country, mentioning
the development of 6 lanes on National Highway Route No. 1 between Dhaka andChittagong as one of the major objectives. The National Land Transport Policy (2004)
mentions that missing links of major roads would be resolved by constructing of newbridges. The Road Master Plan (2009), established on the basis of the policy, statesthat the improvement of National Highway Route No. 1 is essential to responding to
the increase of transport demand in the next 20 years, and the master plan includes
the Project. Moreover, the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan(2008) requires the improvement of infrastructure to respond to the rise of river waterlevel that may be caused by climate change. The Project is also consistent with theplan.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Road Sector of the Country
In JICA’s Country Analytical Work (February 2012), “development of a national

transport network” is considered as a priority issue. Citing acceleration of economic
growth as one of the priority areas, the Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh(June 2012) states that development of transport infrastructure will be carried out tocontribute to the promotion of efficient transport of passengers and cargo. The Projectis in line with these analysis and policies. The major support activities in the road
sector in the past include the followings.
・ Loan: Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge Project (1994), Paksey Bridge Construction
Project (1997), Rupsha Bridge Construction Project (2001), Eastern Bangladesh
Bridge Improvement Project (2009), and Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project(2011)
・ Grant aid: Meghna Bridge Construction Project (1991) and Meghna and Gumti
Bridge Construction Project (1991)
Putting priority on measures for climate change in Bangladesh, Japan has actively
supported Bangladesh through Climate Change Japanese ODA Loan and Program
Grant Aid for Environment and Climate Change (2009).
(4) Other Donors’ Activity
The major donors in the transport sector in Bangladesh including roads and bridges
are JICA, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). ADB provides
assistance for the reform of the transport sector, Dhaka-Chittagong Highway Project(a feasibility study), and the others. The Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge Project is jointly
co-financed by ADB, the World Bank and JICA.
(5) Necessity of the Project
Accounting for 30% of the total population and 50% of the GDP, the economic
corridor between the Dhaka Metropolitan Area and Chittagong, the second largest city,
is driving the economic growth of the country. The vehicle traffic volume on NationalHighway Route No. 1, connecting the two cities, has sharply increased in recent years
and exceeds the planned capacity by up to about 60% on Kanchpur, Meghna andGumti Bridges on the route. Therefore, in 2008 the country started to increase thenumber of lanes to 8 or 4 on the entire length of National Highway Route No. 1 (road).
Currently these three bridges have only 2 lanes and there is an urgent need toincrease the traffic capacity (through construction of the second bridges). Thesebridges have long been supporting passenger and cargo transport between Dhakaand Chittagong, and severely damaged road surface is posing a problem for traffic.
Moreover, there are concerns about the safety of the bridges because they do notmeet the new seismic design standards that were tightened after the completion of thebridges and corrosion is progressing, and they need urgent rehabilitation andreinforcement. The Project will respond to such issues and is in line with theassistance policies of the Japanese government and JICA. Therefore, the necessity
and relevance of JICA’s support to the Project is high.

3.

Project Description(1) Project Objective(s)The Project is to contribute to the revitalization of the economy of the whole countryof Bangladesh by improving safety of existing bridges concerning bridge piercorrosion and earthquake resistance, and by satisfying increasing transport demandthrough rehabilitation and construction of Kanchpur Bridge (overall length 0.4 km),
Meghna Bridge (0.9 km) and Gumti Bridge (1.4 km) on National Highway Route No. 1
between Dhaka and Chittagong. It is also to contribute to the adoption to climatechange through the development of bridges that will meet the raised water level ofmajor rivers.
(2) Project Site/Target AreaNarayanganj District, Munshiganj District and Comilla District, Bangladesh(3) Project Components (Including the Procurement Method)
1) Repair of Kanchpur Bridge (overall length 0.4 km), Meghna Bridge (0.9 km) andGumti Bridge (1.4 km) (international competitive bidding)2) Construction of 2nd Kanchpur Bridge, 2nd Meghna Bridge, 2nd Gumti Bridge andtheir approachroads (international competitive bidding)3) Installation of overloading control equipment: axle load scales (2 for eachbridge), deck scales (1 for each bridge) and an inspection vehicle (1 for allbridges)4) Consulting service (e.g., detailed design, bidding assistance and constructionsupervision) (shortlist method)(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
Total project cost: 88,464 million yen
Current loan amount: 28,945 million yen(5) Schedule
The project period will be from March 2013 to July 2023 (a total of 125 months). The
Project will be completed at the time of service provision at the facilities (July 2021).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Executing Agency: Roads and Highways Department, Ministry ofCommunication (RHD)
3) Operation and Maintenance System: Same as 2)(7) Environmental and Social Consideration/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A
Reason for Categorization: The project is likely to have significant adverse
impact on the environment under the JICA guidelines for environmental andsocial considerations.
② Environmental Permit: The Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) Report ofthe Project was approved by the Department of Environment, Ministry ofEnvironment and Forest of Bangladesh in October 2012.
③ Anti-Pollution Measures: As it is expected that operation of construction
machinery will generate coarse particles and noise during construction, suchmeasures as water sprinkling, covers on load-carrying platforms of vehicles,
installation of sound-proof sheets near houses and use of low noise heavymachinery will be taken. As for water pollution, water-shielding steel sheet pilefoundation and sheet piles will prevent muddy water from flowing into rivers,and muddy water will be treated in detritus tanks before being discharged sothat the standard of the country will be satisfied. All excavated soil (about14,000 m³) will be used for the construction of approach roads in the Project.
The result of the bottom sediment survey conducted as part of EIA confirmsthat the soil does not contain heavy metal or any other harmful substanceexceeding the standard.
④ Natural Environment: The project site located outside nationally and locallydesignated protected areas (National Reserves and Conservation Areas). The
Meghna and Gumti Rivers may have river dolphins, which are a rare species,
and underwater noise and vibration from pile driving and nighttime lighting may
affect them. In case they are seen, pile driving and operation of construction
vessels will be suspended and nighttime lighting will be limited to theconstruction sites. Therefore, no serious adverse impact on the naturalenvironment is expected.
⑤ Social Environment: Although the Project will be carried out within the land
owned by the executing agency and does not require land acquisition, it
requires involuntary relocation of a total of 972 residents for the construction ofthe three bridges. The relocation will be carried out according to the regulationsof the country and the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP). There was a meetingwith residents during the development of the RAP, where outline of the Project,compensation, support measures, monitoring plan, complaint handlingmechanism, etc., were explained. Meeting participants made requests forconstruction planning that will minimize relocation, provision of appropriatecompensation and measures to support livelihood recovery, and asked
questions about relocation schedule. No objection was made in the meeting.
⑥ Other / Monitoring: Concerning the resident relocation, the executing agency
will conduct internal monitoring and external experts will also monitor the statusof relocation and the status of living after relocation. As for the environment, theexecuting agency will monitor air quality, noise, water quality, etc. during
construction and use.
⑦ Conclusion: With environmental and social measures described above, it isunlikely that the Project will cause serious adverse impact. The following points

will require attention and the implementation status will have to be checked
through a progress report etc.
a) Status of residents’ relocationb) Environmental monitoring (during construction and use)
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction: Measures to support livelihood recovery will betaken for poor illegal residents who will be relocated.
3) Promotion of Social Development: Educational activities for construction workers
concerning HIV/AIDS prevention will be carried out with support fromconsultants.
(8) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors: In collaboration with ADB, JICA
will support RHD for strengthening its organization system.
(9) Other Important Issues: As the Project is to construct bridges to respond to thechange of the river bed altitude resulted from the increase of river flow volume
caused by climate change, it will contribute to the adoption to climate change.
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Target (2023)

Baseline(Actual valuein 2012)【Expected value 2
years after project

Kanchpur Bridge

76,732

136,030

Meghna Bridge

65,008116,342

Gumti Bridge

65,008116,342

Reduction of travel
time (min)3 bridges and accessroads(about 5.3 km)

23

5.3

Improvement ofaverage driving
speed (km/h)

Starting point ofNational Highway
Route No. 1 to the endof Gumti Bridge

1460.9

Indicator

Annual average
traffic volume (no. ofvehicles/day)Objectivecompletion】

2) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the conditions indicated below, the Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR) will be 23.8%, and the Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) will be 4.9%.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project cost (tax not included)
Operation and maintenance cost
Benefit: Reduction of driving cost, time reduction, and the others.

Project Life: 25 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance cost
Benefit: Toll revenue
Project Life: 25 years(2) Qualitative Effects
Improved safety of existing bridges, revitalization of the economy of the wholecountry of Bangladesh, and adoption to climate change
5. External Factors and Risk Control
Delay in civil engineering works caused by natural disasters such as a flood
6. Evaluation Results and Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Evaluation results of similar projects
From the result of the ex-post evaluation of the Rupsha Bridge Construction Projectin Bangladesh and the others, lessons-learned was found that it is necessary tostrengthen the maintenance capabilities of the executing agency for large-size bridges,
to strengthen the mid- and long-term financial planning capabilities including tollsetting, and to tighten overload control.
(2) Lessons for the Project
As the Project is for rehabilitation and construction of large bridges, based on theabove-described lesson, we will make efforts to strengthen the bridge maintenancecapabilities of the executing agency through consulting services and other activities. It
has been confirmed that the maintenance cost can be covered with the current tolllevel. As for overload, the Ministry of Communication, the regulatory agency, hasagreed that axle road scales etc. should be included as a project component to tightencontrol.
7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
1) Annual average traffic volume (number of vehicles/day), reduction of travel
time (minutes), improvement of driving speed (km/h)
2) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) (%), and Financial Internal Rate ofReturn (FIRR) (%)(2) Timing of Next Evaluation: 2 years after the completion of the Project

END