2008年6月6日
JPO 土岐 啓道
国際開発援助動向研究会
第77回 議事録
１．日 時：平成20年5月27日（火）10：00～12：00
２．場 所：FASID 第一研修室（千代田会館 5 階）
３．発表者：Kiichiro Fukasaku (OECD 開発センター, Counsellor and Head of Regional Desks)
Federico Bonaglia (OECD 開発センター, Economist)
Denise Wolter (OECD 開発センター, Economist)
４．議 題：Measuring the Pulse of Africa 2008
５．出席者：22 名
６．議 事：
6.1 開発援助情報システム「DAKIS」（http://dakis.fasid.or.jp）
最新開発援助動向レポート

・ No.26 青柳 恵太郎（FASID 国際開発研究センター 研究助手）「第 2 回 Network of Networks on Impact Evaluation 会合」及び「Making Smart Policy:
Using Impact Evaluation for Policy Making」
・No.27 土岐 啓道（FASID 国際開発研究センター JPO）
「チェコ、ハンガリー、ポーランド、スロバキア（V4）の援助動向」
Journal Express

・ 最新の主要援助動向を各種英語新聞・雑誌・シンクタンク情報から抜粋・編集し、簡単な邦訳付き英語で毎週水曜に発信中。
6.2 本日のプレゼンテーション

Introduction
Kiichiro Fukasaku
He introduced two flagship publications the OECD Development Centre released in May 2008. One isAfrican Economic Outlook (AEO) 2008 – a joint product with African Development Bank and United
Nations Economic Commission for Africa. AEO aims to provide policy makers, researchers, and businesspeople with comprehensive and comparative data and analysis of African 35 countries, covering 95 % ofAfrica’s total GDP and 87 % of its total population (http://www.oecd.org/dev/aeo). Another publication

is called Business for Development 2008: Promoting Commercial Agriculture in Africa. This report wasreleased on the occasion of TIVAD IV in Yokohama. It looks at African agriculture from a businessperspective; it highlights the current status of agriculture and agribusiness as well as the emerging
opportunitiesfordeveloping

thesector

furtherinbothdomesticandexport

markets(http://www.oecd.org/dev/business).

The African Economic Outlook 2008 Measuring the Pulse of Africa
Federica MarzoMacroeconomic Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities
The African economy has been steadily growing for the past five years, and the continent’s growth rateis expected to reach almost 6 % in 2008-2009. What are the drivers of this growth? They are manifold: asurge in commodity prices, especially oil and metal prices; the increased demand for African commodities
from Asian emerging countries, such as China and India; the continued improvement in macroeconomicpolicies (and as a result, macroeconomic stability); and the strong growth of public and private investment.
However, this aggregate picture masks different economic realities in different country groups; for instance,
the growth divergence between net oil exporters and importers became wider in 2007 (6.4 % versus 5 %).
Moreover, significant food price inflation in recent months risks economic and social stability especiallyfor the latter group, although the degree of vulnerability differs among countries. Two other common
challenges are worth noting. One is the energy shortage: the installed capacity remains insufficient to
respond to high growth rates and increasing industrial and household demand in sub-Saharan Africa.
Another challenge is to diversify production and export base, not only for oil exporters but also for theentire continent. To address this challenge, investment in human resource development is a key, and thisleads to the special theme of this year’s AEO, namely, technical and vocational skills development.

Skills Development: Investing in African Youth
Technical and vocational skills development (TVSD) means the acquisition of competencies,
knowhow and attitudes necessary to perform an occupation in the labour market. TVSD is criticallyimportant for sustained growth and diversification in Africa where labour productivity is low (one fourth ofworld average), youth unemployment is high (20% on average) and the economy is dominated by theinformal sector (about 80 % of total employment). However, the rate of enrollment in TVSD is merely 5 %in sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 15 % in East Asia and 18 % in the OECD area. The training system
in Africa is largely underfinanced (only 2 to 6% of national education budget) and donors’ support totraining has been erratic and insufficient to upgrade the quality and access to training. This sober picture is
not merely due to the lack of resources; it is also related to the question of how available resources arebeing used. AEO 2008 highlights a number of successful experiences in African countries in terms of 1)
strategies, action plans and identification of objectives and resources, 2) increasing awareness aboutbenefits of TVSD among firms and parents, 3) fostering evaluation and monitoring mechanisms.

Business for Development 2008: Promoting Commercial Agriculture in Africa
Denise Wolter
The future of Africa is closely intertwined with the development of its agricultural business sector. A large
share of Africa’s population lives in rural areas, and more than 60 per cent of its active labour force earn alivelihood in the agricultural sector. However, Africa’s potential with respect to commercial agriculture islargely untapped, and the current status of agriculture is a source of major concern. The sector is dominatedby poor smallholders, often solely engaged in subsistence agriculture, while the agri-business sector is in its
infancy in most countries. Smallholders face tremendous challenges in accessing input and output markets
and find themselves trapped into a vicious cycle of low income, low inputs and low productivity. In 2006,
the African average cereal yield was only 40 per cent of the Southeast Asian average. Furthermore, thecontinent has been lagging behind in adapting to the structural transformation of the international agro-foodmarket which has opened up new business opportunities for developing-country producers, while at thesame time increasing competitive pressures. It is in this context that African leaders have agreed on acomprehensive action plan for the sector, emphasising the need to mobilise large resources. The New
Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has been instrumental in bringing up agriculture on thenational and international policy agenda in the 2003 Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Programme (CAADP) framework. Given the limited financial resources available to most African
governments, it has become critically important to mobilise additional resources, including those comingfrom bilateral and multilateral donors and the domestic and international private sector. Additional
resources are clearly needed. Over the last two decades, with few exceptions, public resources toagriculture have shrunk dramatically. Reversing that trend today is as important as ensuring that scarce
resources are efficiently allocated to priority, productivity-enhancing investments. TICAD IV provides aunique window of opportunity to provide a fresh impetus to promoting commercial agriculture in Africa.

6.3 Questions & Answers and Comments

Training workers in informal sectors
In Africa, the majority of employment comes from informal sectors and they lack the knowledge ofmarketing and finance so that governments should recognize the importance of those sectors in designing
the strategies for skill development. At the moment, initiatives for training and strengthening of informal
sectors are limited to those by donors and NGOs, and governments are mostly investing to formal training.

Public and private investment in Africa
We can observe the increase of both public and private investment in Africa.

1) Public investment: ODA has played an important role in terms of debt relief operations, which allowed
governments to free up more resources. Public investment is concentrated in infrastructure sectors, and thisallows Africa to grow faster, because good infrastructure provides a foundation for agriculturaldevelopment as well as for the development of countries in general.
2) Private investment: There are two types of investment – FDIs and private portfolio capital flows, both ofwhich are on the increase. Private investment in Africa follows a pattern of high risks and high returns, and
it is highly influenced by the stability of political, macroeconomic environment as well as the improvementof business environment. There have been on-going economic reforms in many African countries, likeZambia in which large capital flows take place as a result of liberalization of its economy.

Sustainable economic growth in Africa
Many attempts have been made in the past to promote education and training for entrepreneurship inorder to tackle high unemployment problem and huge gaps in skills: for example, in South Africa, a reform
program called the ASGISA (the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa) with theobjective of halving poverty and unemployment by 2014. Considering the high drop-out rate of formal
education, it is crucial that governments provide the young people with technical and vocational educationand training (TVET).
There is another point to make. Even though there were commodity booms in the past, it was always
followed by post-boom stagnation. Therefore, this time, we should probably think of something new totackle this dilemma and to achieve long-term sustained development. What is important is that what will
follow after the economic boom and what sort of pictures we can project in terms of the future of Africa. It
depends on many factors including;-

how market remains open in OECD countries;-

how OECD countries react to the new commodity market situation by reforming their own agriculturalpolicies;-

how regional integration within Africa will progress;-

how oil money and other commodity money will be circulated within Africa; and-how economic and political governance in individual countries, particularly in weak states, will betransformed as the current commodity boom comes to an end.

African countries are now in a process of learning from the past. Although it is difficult to visualize picturesof Africa in 10 or 20 years time, education is one of the big factors that can affect Africa’s future. High
commodity prices will continue for a little while. Therefore cash is around, but the point is how to use it
effectively. As far as OECD countries are concerned, soft landing is a very important issue.

Green Revolution in Africa
In Africa, the increase of rice production is important in terms of food security. For example, WestAfrica is importing a large amount of rice from Asia which itself has been increasing domestic riceconsumption. At TICAD IV, there will be a discussion on doubling rice production in 10 years in Africa
through the Green Revolution. And when we think about adaptation of Green Revolution in Africa, it isnecessary to look at what kind of technologies are available and how best to put them at productive use.

Relationship between Africa and Europe
The increased awareness in agricultural development is a welcomed movement; however, Africa has
to sort out its own food security problem before becoming the kitchen for Europe. To address this challenge,
each individual country has to conduct cost-benefit analysis to think about whether they should become
self-sufficient in food supply. In fact, international business is already sourcing food from Africa as well as
providing necessary training, but making business out of African agriculture is often accompanied with badimages, such as taking food away from hungry people. Considering the long-term potential of agriculture inAfrica, it is necessary to move beyond such bad images.

TVET (technical and vocational education and training): collaboration with private enterprises
Now several Japanese enterprises are planning to open factories in Africa. In providing TVET for local
populations, collaboration with private enterprises is essential. It is in fact already happening in the oilindustry. For example, in Angola, where oil companies are providing training and also financing programsin other sectors related to their industry.