A TRIAL CALCULATION OF EFFECT ON DISASTER REDUCTIONAT FISHING PORT USING INPOT-OUTPUT ANALYSISKoji OTSUKA*, Fumihiko IMAMURA**, Ken-ichi SATOH***, Miyoshi HOSAKA***** Senior Consultant, The Japanese Institute of Technology on Fishing Ports, Grounds and Communities** Prof., Tsunami Engineering Laboratory, Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University*** Manager, Emergency Management Division, General Affairs Department, Kesennuma-City**** The Japanese Institute of Technology on Fishing Ports, Grounds and Communities
Damage to a fishing port caused by Earthquakes or Tsunamis has a significant effect on regional
industries in a city whose key industry is fishery. In the past, only the direct damage was subject tocalculation of the damage caused by Earthquakes or Tsunamis. In order to predict seismic/tsunami
disasters and the effect of disaster-reduction measures, not only the direct damage but also the indirect
damage need to be taken into consideration. To this end, we tried to calculate the effect ofdisaster-reduction measures at fishing port using an input-output analysis as a model.
Key Words : Tsunami, input-output analysis, disaster mitigation1．Purpose of the Study
Fishery is a key industry of Kesen-numa City,
centering round the Kesen-numa fishing port.
Damage to a fishing port caused by Earthquakes or
Tsunamis has a significant effect on regional
industries in a city whose key industry is fishery 1) . In
the past, only the direct damage was subject tocalculation of the damage caused by Earthquakes or
Tsunamis. However, if a fishing port is damaged, itwould not only adversely affect unloading andshipping of marine products but operation of fishprocessing facilities at the rear of the port, thus
having a significant effect on the entire regionaleconomy. In order to predict seismic/tsunami
disasters and the effect of disaster-reduction measures,
not only the direct damage but also the indirect
damage need to be taken into consideration. To thisend, we tried to calculate the effect ofdisaster-reduction measures at Kesen-numa Fishing
Port using an input-output analysis as a model.

2．Effect of Damage to a Fishing Port on
the Regional Economy
2.1

Effect of Damage to a Fishing Port on
the Regional Economy

In generally, effect of damage is calculated using
difference of amount of damage with and without
countermeasures.

121

Effect of Damage =Amount of Damage Without Countermeasures– Amount of Damage With Countermeasure (1)If a fishing port is damaged by Earthquakes andTsunamis, it would not only adversely affectunloading and shipping of marine products but
operation of fish processing facilities at the rear of
the port, thus having a significant effect on the entire
regional economy. We discussed, in addition to thedirect damage, the negative spread damages throughthe use of input-output analysis, for the purpose ofestablishing a method of calculating the effect ofdisaster-reduction measures 2) .

2.2

Probability of Earthquake Occurrence
Next 30 Years

Kesen-numa City was attacked by Tsunami manytimes. Fig. 1 shows probability of Miyagi
Earthquakes occurrence next 30 years at offshore ofKesen-numa City. Miyagi Earthquake, single type, ispresumed the occurrence of probability of 99% and80～90%3) .

Vehicles
Vehicles

Fish
Fish Selecting
Selecting
Machines
Machines

Miyagi（Single）（≒Ｍ７.５）９９％

Kesen-numa
Miyagi（Single）（≒Ｍ７.７）８０～９０％
Fish
Fish Boxes
Boxes &&Vehicles
Vehicles

Fish
Fish Boxes
Boxes &&Workers
Workers

Fig. 3

Objects in the Fish Market

Miyagi（Synchronized）（≒Ｍ８）

Fig. 1

Fig. 4 shows the drift simulation of the aquaculture
rafts by Miyagi Synchronized Type Earthquake. In
the drift simulation of the aquaculture rafts, the sea
route is blockaded by the raft's drifting, anddispersing them in the bay. Therefore, it becomes
impossible for the vessels to sail. A disaster
Reduction measures necessary to secure the functionof the fishing port when the Tsunami raids are mainly
the driftage measures 4,5) .

Probability of Miyagi Offshore Earthquakes
Occurrence Next 30 Years

3．Situation of Kesen-numa Bay
Kesen-numa fishing port is located at bottom ofKesen-numa Bay. Fishery is a key industry of
Kesen-numa City, centering round the Kesen-numa
fishing port. Kesen-numa fishing port gathers fromthe whole country fishing vessels, unloads, and has
the role of the distribution base of fisheries products.
And also, the aquaculture is active in the Kesen-numa
bay, a lot of fishing ports are distributed in the littoral
region in the bay. The fish unloaded at theKesen-numa fishing port is not only supplied to theconsumer but also supplied to the fishery processing
factories. So, Kesen-numa fishing port has aprominent role for the regional economy.
There are a lot of objects in the market as fish
selecting machines, fish boxes, many kind of vehicles
and workers. On the other hand, there are a lot ofobjects also in the bay as fishing vessels, vehicles,
aquaculture rafts.
The function of the fishing port stops when thesedrift by the Tsunami.

Miyagi （（SynchronizedSynchronized Type）ype）
Type）

Distributed
Distributed Aquaculture
Aquaculture Rafts
Rafts

Sea Rout Is
Blockaded

Fig. 4

Result of Drift Simulation of theAquaculture Rafts

In Kesen-numa, several-time workshops are held
participated not only city office staff, but also the fish
market staff, fisheries corporative association andlocal residents and so on. At the workshops, they
discussed with countermeasure against to Tsunami(Fig.5). And also, preparatory evacuation training wasexecuted participating fishermen, mainly evacuationof fishing vessels against to Tsunami in last autumn.
Therefore, parties concerned have high appreciation
against to Tsunami.

Fish Landing Place

KenenKenen-numa Fishing PortFig. 2

Raft’
Raft’ Drifting,
Drifting, Dispersing
Dispersing

Kesen-numa Fishing Ports

122

Tsunami?

market by the fish market staffs. Fishing vessels
evacuated to given safety sea area by fishermen. Big
fishing vessels were tied strongly by fishing port
management body.

Countermeasures?

Local Officers
Fish Market staffs
Fish Processing Factory
Fishermen (FCA), etc.

High Appreciation
Evacuation Training

Forklifts
Forklifts

Fig. 5

Activities Disaster Reduction
against Tsunami

Vehicles
VehiclesFig. 8

Evacuation & Other Measures

On the other hand, a lot of aquaculture rafts are set
up in the Kesen-numa bay as mentioned above. Theserafts were great damaged as drift by the Tsunami (Fig.
9). According to the calculation by Dr. Fujima,
maximum current velocity was over 3m/s. Whencurrent velocity 1m/s is exceeded, it is reported thatthe aquaculture rafts damage begins to appear by Dr.
Shyuto and Dr. Imamura 6) .

4．Damage of Tsunami by Chilean
Earthquake 2010
End of this February, Chilean Tsunami attacked
Kesen-numa City. In case of Miyagi Earthquake
Tsunami, Synchronized Type, Tsunami flood depth
assumed in the fish market is about 2～3m. But on
this time, it was approximately 0.5m measured by Dr.
Imamura as show as Fig. 6.
There are 1,500 Fish Boxes in the fish market
didn’t flow out to the outside caused by rope fixing
by fish market staffs as show as Fig. 7.

Max.
Max. Velocity<3m/sVelocity<3m/s(calculated(calculated byby Dr.
Dr. Fijima)
Fijima)Flood depth
Miyagi（Synchronized） ≒2～3ｍ
Chilean Tsunami≒0.5ｍ

Raft Type
Type(Oyster)(Oyster)

Trawl line Type
(SeaweedSeaweed)

Fig. 95． Analysis of industrial structure andplanningof
disaster-reduction
measuresFishFish Market
Market Closed
Closed onon Sunday
SundayFig. 6

Damage of Aquaculture Rafts

Tsunami Overflowed on the Fish Market

Based on mentioned above information, we tried toanalyze of industrial structure and to plan of thedisaster-reduction measures.

Step 11,500
1,500 Fish
Fish Boxes(１ｔ)Boxes(１ｔ)Fig. 7

Didn’tDidn’t flow
flow outto the outsideoutside

Service Supply Flowchart for Each
Industrial Sector

Fig.10 shows, fishery, food-processing industry andother industries based on the fishery are key
industries of Kesen-numa City to take measures fordisaster-reduction against Tsunami focusing on
Fishery leads to the decline of damage to the regional
economy.

Damage of Fish Boxes in the Fish Market

Fig.8 shows the situation of evacuation andcountermeasures for driftage. Residents evacuated tohigher place by themselves. Vehicles, including
forklifts, were evacuated to roof top on the fish123

aquaculture cages around fishing ports would drift as
driftage by Tsunami. As it will take a long period oftime to remove them and restore fisheries
infrastructures, the distribution of marine products
will be delayed, and in its turn, industries such as“fishery” and “food-processing industry” will bestagnated for a long time.
In a case where countermeasures to minimize theretention of driftage by Tsunami are taken, timerequired for removing them and restoring fisheries
infrastructures will be reduced and the distribution ofmarine products will recover rapidly. Therefore, thestagnation of industries such as “fishery” and“food-processing industry” will be held down, etc.

Fishery
Energy, etc.
Manufacturing

Fishery Product & Processing
FoodFood
Foodprocessing
processing
IIndustry
ndustry

Commerce
Service Industry

Transportati
on Industry

Distribution & Processing

Fig. 10

Step 2Service Supply Flowchart of Each
Industrial Sector

Sum Ratio of the Top 7 Sectors ofInternal Production Amount

Step 4First, we analyzed the industrial structure of
Kesen-numa City. The top seven sectors which havethe larger internal production value were extracted
from the input-output table of the city. Then, theservice supply ratios by each industrial sector wereshown Table 1.
Table 1

Setting of Numerical Value in the
Input-Output Table According toDisaster-Reduction Scenario(1) Prerequisites- The structure of expenditures injection for eachindustrial sector is uniform.
- The intraregional end demand is assumed tofluctuate according to evacuation situation ofregional residents, etc.

Sum ratio of the top 7 sectors ofinternal production amountTransp
Food-processi Manufortatio ServiceEnergy CommSumnindustr (2) Reflection on Values in the Input-Output
Fishery ng acturin
, etc
erce
ratio
industrgindustry
Table According to of Disaster-Reductionyy
Measure Scenario Equations
Fishery 0.039 0.960
0.001
Food-pr- On the assumption that the input-output ratio of cost
ocessing 0.019 0.958 0.001
0.000 0.023
is fixed, an operating ratio is multiplied by aindustry
constant value
Manufac0.065 0.165 0.210 0.021 0.043 0.112 0.385
turing- If an operating ratio of the fishery sector is lower
Energy,0.375 0.162 0.033 0.088 0.065 0.050 0.227
than that of other sectors, the supply to other sectors
etc.
is adjusted to the operating ratio of the fishery
Commer
0.042 0.666 0.047 0.008 0.028 0.050 0.159
ce
sectorTransporIf an operating ratio of the food-processing industry
tation 0.033 0.235 0.032 0.023 0.192 0.235 0.251
industry
is lower than other sectors excluding the fishery
Servicesector, the supply to other sectors excluding the0.068 0.079 0.036 0.040 0.164 0.179 0.434
industry

Step 3fishery sector is adjusted to the operating ratio of
the food-processing sector, etc.

Setting as a Scenario of Disaster
Reduction Measures(3)

We emphasized a BCP (Business Continuity Plan)
basic concept setting a scenario of disaster-reduction
measures to minimize of damage by Tsunami. Basedon the result of analysis, change in the industrial
structure after a disaster with and without
disaster-reduction measures was set as a scenario.
If there are no countermeasures, fishing boats andSetting of Operation
Industrial Sector

ratioofeach

Next, we set of numerical value in the input-output
table according to the disaster-reduction scenario.
First, we presumed operation ratio of fishery, foodprocessing industry and other Industries. Fig.11
shows fishery sector as example.
An evacuation population and the damage ratio of124

Operation Ratio

Operation Ratio of FisheryOperation Ratio

houses, fishing boats and operating ratio of factories
were estimated based on questionnaire surveys
already conducted and a supposed flood area for eachindustrial sector in the input-output table.

Operation Ratio of Fishery

DisasterWithout

6．Estimation Results of Disaster
Reduction Effect Using the Production
Amount as Index

Influence Factors

From the mentioned above, we estimated ofdisaster-reduction effect using the production amountas index.

WithOperation Ratio by
each Influence Factors

DisasterOperation Ratio

Elapsed days After Disaster

restoration performance of other areas.
The result was reflected on the values in theinput-output table.

6.1

Elapsed days After Disaster

The production amount by elapsed day wasestimated in two cases; “with disaster-reduction
measures” and “without them.” The comparison resultof the production amount in two cases shows that alarge difference arises in terms of production amountin the emergency reaction period after the disaster(one week ～ six months) and the difference is notlarge in the restoration period (one year ～ threeyears) as show as Fig. 13.
The damage amount without disaster-reduction
measures is about 169.2 billion yen while the amountis about 4.8 billion yen with those measures. The
implementation of disaster-reduction measures has adamage-reduction effect of about 164.4 billion yen.
The trial calculation results are approximate to aBCP (Business Continuity Plan) general basic
concept and it was confirmed that the effect ofdisaster-reduction measures appeared in a similar way
to a BCP basic concept.

Minimum Operation Ratio of Fishery
WithWithout
Elapsed days After DisasterFig. 11

Setting Operation Ratio (1)Minimum Operation Ratio of Fishery
WithWithout
DisasterElapsed days After Disaster

Minimum Operation Ratio of Food Processing
WithWithout
DisasterElapsed days After Disaster

Minimum Operation Ratio of Others
WithUntil
Until thethe OccurrenceOccurrence ofof Disaster
Disaster

Production per day
１１ 日日 当当(millionのの 生生 産産 額額yen)（（ 百百 万万 円円 ））Operation RatioOperation Ratio

But, if an operating ratio of the fishery sector islower than that of other sectors, the supply to othersectors is adjusted to the operating ratio of the fisherysector. If an operating ratio of the food-processing
industry is lower than other sectors excluding thefishery sector, the supply to other sectors excluding
the fishery sector is adjusted to the operating ratio of
the food-processing sector, etc.

Operation Ratio

Production Amount after the Occurrenceof Disaster

WithoutDisaster00

Elapsed days After DisasterFig. 12

1,1,440000
1,1,220000

With
With4.84.8 billion
billion yen
yen

1,1,000000
800
800

EffectEffect164.4
164.4 billion
billion yen
yen

600
600
400
400

Without
Without
169.2
169.2 billion
billion yen
yen

200
20000
00
Disaster

111010100
100
経過日数（対数）Elapseddays ( logarithm)
経過日数（対数）

1000
1000

10000
10000
(Day)

Fig. 13 Production amount after theoccurrence of disaster (per day)Setting Operation Ratio (2)An operating ratio of each industrial sector fromthe next date of the disaster to the completion ofrestoration (three years later) was varied based on1256.2

Estimation Results of Disaster ReductionEffect using the Production Amount asIndex

謝辞
本論文は水産庁委託事業「漁業地域の減災モデリング事業」の一部をとりまとめたものである．
事業の実施にあたり協力頂いた関係各位に陳謝申し上げる．

At the result that calculation of effect on disaster
reduction on fishing port using input-output analysis,
It became clear the following. The transaction of eachsector of industry in the region becomes clear. The
ripple damage to the related industries can beclarified. Measures for the minimization of damage
by Tsunami can be understood by the time step. Not
only fishermen but also people in the region will havehigh appreciation against to Tsunami.

参考文献
1) 災害に強い漁業地域づくりガイドライン，(社)全国漁港漁場協会，2006
2) 水産物産地市場の減災計画策定マニュアル，水産庁
漁港漁場整備部，2010
3) 海溝型地震の長期評価の概要：文部科学省地震調査

7．Conclusion

研究推進本部，20104) 水谷将・大塚浩二・中村隆・伊藤敏朗：津波シミュ

The trial calculation results are approximate to a
BCP (Business Continuity Plan) general basic
concept and it was confirmed that the effect ofdisaster-reduction measures appeared in a similar way
to a BCP basic concept. We will make efforts to solve
the problems for utilizing input-output analysis toestablish an effect calculation
method ofdisaster-reduction measures in the future.
Finally, not only fishermen also people in theregion will have high appreciation and execute theaction against to Tsunami by understanding theinfluence and the effect of disaster-reduction
measures 7) .

レーションを用いた災害に強い漁業地域づくり，第5 回全国漁港漁場整備技術研究発表会講演集，pp134～143，2006
5) Koji OTSUKA・Hiroyuki KATO・Ken-ichi SATOH・
Koji FUJIMA ： THE BEHAVIOR OF TSUNAMI
INDUCED DRIFTAGE AND IT’S PROBLEM IN THE
FISHING AREAS, PACON 2010, pp83
6) 藤 間 功 司 ・ 鴫 原 良 典 ・ 加 藤 広 之 ・ 丹 治 雄 一 ： 2010
年チリ津波による養殖施設の被害調査，地域安全学会梗概集 No.26，2010
7) Koji OTSUKA ・ Fumihiko IMAMURA ・ Sadayuki
OKA・Ken-ichi SATOH・Miyoshi HOSAKA： A Trial
Calculation of Effect on Disaster Reduction at Fishing
Ports

Using

Input-Output

Analysis,

The

3rd

International Tsunami Field Symposium, pp153～154

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