Izumi Nakamitsu

The Present and Future of Multilateralism andExpectations for Japan*
Izumi Nakamitsu**Abstract
The international community faces a mounting crisis in multilateralism. The shift bycertain major States in pursuing a “my country first” posture, trending towards nationalism,
and inward-looking foreign policies is not a cause, but a symptom, of the challenges thatmultilateralism is confronting. The basis upon which multilateralism is declining seems
rooted in the loss of hope by citizens who feel their expectations for the post–Cold War
period have been betrayed, and who believe that they have been left behind by the policies
and effects of globalization. To address this difficult issue, it is first necessary to rightfully
acknowledge the outcomes achieved through multilateralism and the rationale of therefore
maintaining the rules-based international order. Secondly, to restore peopleʼs trust, it
is urgent and essential that reforms be made to ensure that multilateral institutions arecapable of effectively addressing and resolving issues that are becoming manifest in the21st century. And thirdly, it will be vitally important to anticipate trends in major global
reforms and explore more creative ways to engage in multilateral diplomacy. Japan should
be a leader, advocating for the importance of multilateralism at this crucial juncture. Tothat end, Japan would be well-advised to extend its powers of assistance and backing tothe discussions now under way on reforms to the United Nations and other multilateralinstitutions.

Introduction

S

ince the end of World War II, the international order has been maintained and preserved
by multiple foundations, including, inter alia, the United Nations (UN) system and theBretton Woods institutions; various regional organizations and multilateral alliances;multilateral treaties and arrangements addressing specific issues, including the Treaty
on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Convention Relating to the Status ofRefugees, and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the regimes and institutions thatsustain them. The principles of “great power unanimity” of the five permanent members of theUN Security Council, sovereign equality of the UN Member States, non-intervention in internalaffairs, and territorial integrity were all key factors in the multilateral system, which contributedto maintaining the balance of power and stability between East and West during the Cold War.
With accelerating globalization, the international community in the post–Cold War period hascome to place heightened importance on multilateral frameworks in order to address an array of
global-scale challenges concerning, among others, peace and security, free trade systems, humanrights, public health, humanitarian assistance, climate change, and sustainable development.
* This essay was originally published on Kokusai Mondai [International Affairs], No.678, Jan.-Feb. 2019.
** Izumi Nakamitsu is United Nations Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament
Affairs.

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The Present and Future of Multilateralism and Expectations for Japan

Despite unilateral actions, such as the United States (US) invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Russian
invasion of Crimea in 2014, the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and
the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 seemed to underscore the effectiveness ofmultilateralism in addressing global issues through multilateral negotiations and coordination.
However, in 2018―three years after these major multilateral achievements―the international
community was facing a mounting crisis in multilateralism following both the United Kingdomʼsdecision to withdraw from the European Union as well as the US withdrawals from the ParisAgreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Iran nuclear deal, and the UN HumanRights Council.
It was multilateralism that was the most crucial issue at the high-level meeting of the UN
General Assembly in 2018, which was attended by the heads of state and prime ministers of126 countries. In stark contrast to US President Donald Trumpʼs rejection of the “ideology ofglobalism” and emphasis on the “doctrine of patriotism,” a number of world leaders expressed
their commitment to UN-centered multilateralism and the rules-based international order,
arguably demonstrating a sense of crisis. However, in the view of the author, the shift by major
Member States to a “my country first” posture and inward-looking foreign policies is not a cause,
but a symptom, of the challenges which multilateralism is confronting.
What are the root causes of these challenges to multilateralism? What is needed for its
revitalization? What form should multilateralism take in the 21st century? And what role is Japan
expected to play? This article will address these questions from the perspective of the UN.

1. Root Causes of the Decline of Multilateralism
To maximally achieve their foreign policy objectives, all sovereign states choose the mostappropriate option from unilateralism, bilateralism, or multilateralism. Generally, a superpoweris likely to pursue its national interests through unilateralism or bilateral diplomacy since theseenable it to over whelm its counterparts. Moreover, medium and small powers tend to seek
opportunities to exercise its diplomatic powers in a multilateral framework to achieve its foreign
policy goals.
When discussing multilateralism, it is imperative to bear in mind that the term itself has alargely normative dimension. John Ruggie, who ser ved under former UN Secretar y-General
Kofi Annan as Assistant Secretary-General for Strategic Planning, defined multilateralism as an
institutional model for the coordination of relations among three or more nation-states based on
generalized principles of conduct.1 In the context of the post–Cold War international community,
this “normative” dimension was also manifest as an order based on liberal norms promoted by theUS-led Western countries. The creation of the post of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
in 1994, the adoption of the concept of “Responsibility to Protect” in 2005, and the establishmentof the UN Human Rights Council in 2006 all illustrate normative rules of behaviour in the post–
Cold War era.
However, in 2012, the situation in Syria exposed the dysfunction of the Security Council―thecore of the UNʼs multilateral system―which gave the impression that cracks had begun to appear
in the foundations of multilateralism in the post–Cold War era. Russian diplomats frequently
argued that Russia would never allow regime change in Syria as the Western countries had donein Iraq or Libya. As is widely known, the US and Russia are still in sharp conflict on Syrian issues,
such as regarding the use of chemical weapons. The US-Russian strategic rivalry has become
reminiscent of the Cold War–era relationship. It has had an impact on issues pertaining to thesituation in Ukraine, reduction and control of nuclear arsenals and other strategic weaponry,
1Ruggie, John G. “Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution,” International Organization, Vol. 46,No. 3 (Summer 1992), pp. 561–598.

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Izumi Nakamitsu

and cyber security. This has led to the dysfunction of the UN Security Council contravening
the “principle of great power unanimity,” which in turn is a primary cause behind the crisis inmultilateralism. Furthermore, if the US and China fall into the “Thucydides Trap,” the impact, notonly on multilateralism, but on global stability, will be tremendous.2
At the same time, the current decision-making mechanisms of multilateral diplomacy are nolonger as simple as they were during the Cold War era of bipolar confrontation between Eastand West. The world is shifting towards a multipolar system and several regional major powers―no longer emerging powers―have acquired formidable influence and assertiveness. As aconsequence, it has become increasingly difficult to reach an agreement not only within the UN
Security Council but particularly within multilateral fora where decisions are made in consensus.
For instance, the Conference on Disarmament has been deadlocked for over 20 years, and the2005 and 2015 review conferences of the NPT―one of the pillars of the international security
system―failed to adopt a consensus final document on substantive issues.
However, the root cause behind the decline of multilateralism appears to be the loss ofhope by a number of people who feel their expectations for the post-Cold War period have been
betrayed and that they have been left out of the benefits of globalization. In his statement at
the General Assembly in 2018, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described this senseof hopelessness as a case of “trust deficit disorder.”3 Due in part to the ineffectiveness of theSecurity Council, the Syrian civil war has become a protracted conflict, spurring a massive outflowof refugees. Additionally, migrant flows from, among others, Africaʼs Sahel region and Libya havetriggered a social and political crisis in Europe. While contributing to economic growth worldwide
and reducing the level of extreme poverty by half, the effects of economic globalization havemade a growing number of people feel that conditions of economic disparity and inequality haveactually worsened. A look across the advanced industrial world reveals an intensifying sense of
antipathy towards efforts at international cooperation as well as the open societies and institutions
cultivated by the international community under the banner of multilateralism. This sense ofhopelessness and loss of trust have begun feeding a vicious cycle further eroding multilateralism,
spurring political trends towards populism and exclusionism at the domestic level and giving
expression to inward-looking unilateralist foreign policies at the international level.

2. Multilateral Diplomacy and Multilateralism in the 21st Centur y
Secretary-General Guterres has sounded a warning that tensions reminiscent of the Cold War
have returned in the increasingly complex environment spurred by the shift towards a multipolarworld. He has emphasized the need to revitalize and strengthen the multilateral system forachieving and maintaining world peace and security. Cataclysmic changes caused by climatechange, large-scale refugee and migrant flows, and the “fourth industrial revolution” marked byartificial intelligence (AI) and cyber technologies, which will impact trends affecting not only thesecurity dimension but practically all areas of society, are global-scale challenges that cannot be
addressed through unilateral or bilateral diplomacy. The following three points are proposed toovercome the current decline of multilateralism and to revitalize and reinforce it.
The first is to rightfully acknowledge the outcomes achieved through multilateralism andto accordingly maintain the rules-based international order. Although not explicitly coveredby provisions of the UN Charter, peacekeeping operations (PKO) devised by members of the2Allison, Graham, Professor, Har vard University. Destined for War: Can America and China EscapeThucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. (“Beichu senso zenya—shinkyu taikoku o shototsu
saseru rekishi no hosoku to kaihi no shinario”) (Japanese translation by Asako Fujiwara, Diamond Inc.,
2017). When a rising power challenges a ruling one, the resulting tension carries a strong risk of war.
Allison describes this as an example of Thucydidesʼs trap, named after the ancient Greek historian.

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The Present and Future of Multilateralism and Expectations for Japaninternational community to deal with challenges to peace have prevented conflicts from escalating
and contributed to their resolution. Also, achievements in fields such as public health andeducation would not have been possible without multilateral cooperation. It is essential to reaffirm
that the UN Charter and the various UN institutions, which possess unparalleled legitimacy
attributable to their universality, are actually at the core of these norms and institutions. The
norms of the 21st century should be more than purely elements of an order governing behaviour
between sovereign states; rather, they should be human-centric in their nature and capable ofrecovering the trust of those who feel excluded or left behind. We must send a clear message
explaining why multilateral cooperation is needed now more than ever.
Secondly, to restore peopleʼs trust, it is urgent that reforms be made to ensure that multilateral
institutions are capable of effectively addressing and resolving those issues that are becoming
manifest in the 21st century. It is regrettable that, in the post–Cold War period, the Member
States could not make serious efforts to implement reforms in several areas, such as reforms tothe Security Council. Efforts at UN reform led by Secretary-General Guterres, including to theSecretariat and UN system, should be understood within this broader context. UN institutions
should be capable of preventing and resolving conflicts whenever possible, and they must beable to effectively contribute to refugee relief and the mitigation of economic disparities. To
these ends, UN institutions must not be simply bureaucratic entities, but should possess theintellectual capacity to formulate and present visionary solutions to these difficult tasks. Virtually
all of the issues that the international community now faces are fraught with difficulty and cannot
be addressed or solved by a single organization. The UN has already amassed experience incooperating with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations in peacekeeping
operations and the mediation of peace accords.4 Still, there needs to be a framework that will
enable multilateral institutions to function even more effectively while coordinating and forming
cooperative partnerships among multilateral organizations. This may be referred to as a form ofnetworked multilateralism.5And thirdly, it will be vitally important to anticipate trends in major global reforms andexplore more creative ways to engage in multilateral diplomacy. Dealing with the new challenges,including the weaponization of AI, will require the constr uction of new norms throughmultilateral diplomacy. It is likely that the formation of norms in the 21st century will require not
only the more traditional international legal instruments such as treaties but also soft norms suchas political declarations and commitments―which are not legally binding but are monitored―
voluntary codes of conduct of private companies and scientists, and industrial standards. Thatbeing the case, new creative multilateral diplomacy should be pursued based on the contributionsof more inclusive, “multi-stakeholder” processes as well as traditional multilateral government
negotiations. With this approach, the “convening power” that the UN wields as a forum for
dialogue and negotiation will presumably increase in importance.

3. The Role Expected of Japan
Since joining the United Nations in 1956, Japan has been committed to a pacifist diplomacy shapedby moderation and has continued to be a respected member of the international community.
4For example, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a security mission in Afghanistan
led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), formed a cooperative alliance with the United
Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Currently the African Union Mission in Somalia(AMISOM) is actively engaged in Somalia in cooperation with the United Nations Assistance Missionin Somalia (UNSOM), while the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is working inSouth Sudan with the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

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Izumi Nakamitsu

The soft power it has amassed over this long period and the trust it has earned from theinternational community should not be underestimated. As a country which has led initiatives in
multilateral cooperation in fields ranging from humanitarian and development assistance to peacebuilding and public health, I hope that Japan will be a leader which advocates the importanceof multilateralism at this crucial juncture. To that end, Japan is expected to extend its powersof assistance and backing to the discussions now underway on reforms to the UN and othermultilateral institutions. It would also arguably be worthwhile for Japan to utilize, in full, the trust
it has earned within the international community and play more proactive roles in coordinationand mediation in the interests of other countries. Moreover, I hope that Japan will act as a country
capable of conveying wisdom and vision for the 21st century, connecting civil society, sovereignstates and global society as it did in the past through the promotion of human security and otherimportant policy concepts at the international level. Finally, it should also be noted that in order torealize this in todayʼs world, which is globalizing and flattening at ever accelerating speeds, Japan
itself urgently needs to tackle the tasks of dismantling its seniority system, ensuring diversity,and evolving into a society that enables all citizens to be active participants regardless of age orgender.

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