—(1995()(Somerville, et al., 1999)(2, 2001)(2001)

Das and Kostrov (1986)(2002)

Das and Kostrov (1986)

GPS(Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990)(, 1999)(2002)()(1995)1)

(outer fault parameter)(inner fault parameter)

SM0(Kanamori and Anderson, 1975)

Somerville et al. (1999)
SS (km2) = 2.23

110-15

M02/3 (dyne-cm)

1 dyne-cm(1)10-7 Nm

1.6

log101.6)(, 2001)

σ =(Wells and Coppersmith(1994)
1026 dyne-cm(1)(1)(, 1989;

Yamanaka and Shimazaki, 1990)∆σ c∆σ c =7 M0⋅
16 R 3(2)(Eshelby, 1957)(SπR2)

(2)

RS

(1)

2.3 MPa
Somerville et al. (1999)

SaSl

M0

Sa (km2) = 5.00

10-16

M02/3 (dyne-cm)(3)

Sl (km2) = 3.64

10-16

M02/3 (dyne-cm)

(4)

(1)

(3)

SSa
Da

Sa/S = 0.22
D

(Somerville et al., 1999)

2

Da/D = 2

(Miyakoshi et al., 2000)
Das and Kostorv (1986)∆σa∆σ a =M0

7 M0S⋅ 2 = ∆σ c ⋅
16 Rr
Sa

(5)

r((SaR)N(πr2)(5)∆σiri, i=1, N)(combined area of asperities)N∑ πr = πr22(6)ii =1(5)SSa(5)(1)

Sa/S = 0.22

10.5 MPa(5)Somerville et al. (1999)
22 %10.5MPa(2001)

A0M0A0 (dyne-cm/s2) = 2.46

(1017 M01/3 (dyne-cm)

2)(7)
A0aA0bA0{ab}A0 = ( A0 ) 2 + ( A0 ) 2 1 / 2

Madariaga (1977)

(8)

1a

A0 = 4πrβv R ∆σ a(9)∆σa3a∆σ a =A01⋅
4πβvR r(10)3131(10)(5)NN
A0 = 4πβvR ∑ (∆σ i ri ) 2  i=1

1/ 2a(11)
∆σir

(11)

∆σaN

(9)

N(9)

(7)

(5)
(9)
(5)

aA0 =7πMβvR 04Rr(12)

Sa/S = const.

(1), (3)r/R = const

1/ 3

R ∝ r ∝ M0a(9)

(13)

1/ 3

A0 ∝ M 0(14)(7)(2002)
20 %4

(5)

(9)
(strength excess:τs)(criticalslip-weakening distance:Dc)(Guatteri and Spudich, 2000)(2001)(2001)

Das andKostorv (1986)(2002)

Das and Kostorv (1986)

1/31(, 2001)

SS(2001)LW

LW=LSGPSS∆σ c2∆σ cSomerville et al. (1999)
MPa1026 dyne-cm

52.3

(, 2001)2

log10S (km )= M – 4.0(, 1989)MM(2)3.0 MPa

3M0M0

M0 =S

(SπR2)(2)16⋅ ∆σ c ⋅ S 3 / 2
7π 3 / 2(15)
(15)

M04
Sa
SlS

Somerville et al. (1999)(2002)

Sa (km2) = 0.215 S (km2)(16)

Sl (km2) = 0.150(17)(S (km2)4)

σ = log101.75)

(16)
(1.34

1.75

(, 2001)

Sa/S
6

σ = log101.34) (17)

(Sa/S30(2000)

35
∆σa5
∆σaS

Sa
(16)10.1 MPa

6(5)

∆σa

10.5 MPa

Sa/S30∆σaA0(7)(10)

A0A0

σebab(8)

|A0 |

(9)

SbSb / π6i

Da = C ⋅(Dairi )∆σ a⋅ riµ(18)C1(Wells andCoppersmith, 1994)
1(18)

7

N

(, 2001)(, 2001)

1995(2001b)100o-150o,350o-450o (Hyndman et al., 1997)7

10km-30km(, 1996)

1946

1944

1854

1946

1854
(Sagiya and Thatcher, 1999; Tanioka and Satake, 2000a, 2000b)(,1999)300 km

36000 km2

120 km

1946

1944

1944

180 km2

80 km

14500 km( ∆σ c )1.03.0 MPa

3.0 MPa
M0=2.15 x 1028 dyne-cm

M0 =288.34 x 10 dyne-cm(2001a)Sa/S30 (∆σa1)

15 (2)S(5)Sa1(Sa/S = 0.30)∆σa2(Sa/S = 0.15)2∆σa10.1 MPa20.1 MPaDai(5 7 cm/year)(150)

7.5 11 m

N

3(5)

1854
610.1 MPa20.1 MPa 228A
62

6B+ CB

5455C+2, 1999

212

77

10.1 MPa20.1 MPa2(1999)1854(,1986, 1996)

8-1

8-22C(1996)

A

1854

1996

8-1, 8-2(1986,1996)

1854

1995
1995

17 kmKamae andIrikura (1998)

1292

S

51 x 20.8 km2∆σ c2.3 MPa

91333.29 x 1026 dyne-cm

M04Sa/S

0.22(Somerville et al. (1999) (1)

(3)

5
∆σaM0

Sa/S

(5)

σea ∆σa10.5 MPa
6)7

Kamae and Irikura (1998)

113(∆σa=10.5 MPa)

(9)

σeb

fmax

Kamae and Irikura (1998)

4.0 MPa

6 Hz
4

4

10.5 MPa
1: σeb = 0,2: σeb = 0.2 σea

3: σeb = 0.1 σea,

4: σeb = 4.0 MPa (= 0.38 σea)

σeb

4A0A0a(9)A0b4((7)

((8)
()

50 km10)

(KBU)

111)

(HTK)
42((1012)

11)

Somerville et al., 1999
(Somerville et al., 1999;, 2001), 2001
Das andKostrov (1986)

10

1995
1854
19441854
110 MPa)

215(1995

110.5MPa

037

CEORKA
Wessel and Smith (1995)

GMT Ver.3.0

113020 MPa)

(Boatwright, J. (1988). The seismic radiation from composite models of faulting, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,78, 489-508.
(2001).

, 545, 51-62.
Das, S. and B. V. Kostrov (1986). Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: A model for weak
earthquakes?, In Das, S., J. Boatwright, and C.H. Scholz, eds.: Earthquake Source Mechanics, AGU.,
Washington D.C., 91-96.
Eshelby, J. D. (1957). The determination of the elastic field of and ellipsoidal inclusion, and related
problems, Proc. Roy. Soc., A241, 376-396.
Fukushima, Y. and T. Tanaka (1990). A new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration of strong
earthquake ground motion in Japan, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 80, 757-783.
Guatteri, M. and P. Spudich (2000). What can strong-motion data tell us about slip-weakening faultfriction laws?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 98-116.
Hyndman, R.D., M. Yamano and D.A. Oleskevich (1997). The seismogenic zone of subduction thrustfaults, Island Arc, 6, 244-260.
(2001).

, 110, 849-875.
(2002).

,11().

P. G. Somerville (2000).
, 527, 61-70.
(1999).
—,,—.
(2001a).

(), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index.html.
(2001b).

,http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index.html.
Kamae, K. and K. Irikura (1998). Source model of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake and simulationof near-source ground motion, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 88, 400-412.
Kanamori, H. and D. L. Anderson (1975). Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology,Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 65, 1073-1095.
(2001) .

, SEISMO, 5, 6-7.

Madariaga, R (1977). High-frequency radiation from crack (stress drop) models of earthquake faulting,Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 51, 625-651.
(2002).

,12().

Miyakoshi, K., T. Kagawa, H. Sekiguchi, T. Iwata, and K. Irikura (2000). Source characterization ofinland earthquakes in Japan using source inversion results, Proc. 12thWCEE, 8pp. (CD-ROM).
(2002).

,().

(1999).
,2, 51, 443-456.

(1996).

,2, 38, 295-325.
Sagiya, T., and W. Thatcher (1999). Coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust : theNankai Trough, southwest Japan, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 1111-1129.
(1999).
,, 523, 63-70.

Somerville, P.G., K. Irikura, R. Graves, S. Sawada, D. Wald, N. Abrahamson, Y. Iwasaki, T. Kagawa,N .Smith, and A. Kowada (1999). Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction ofstrong ground motion, Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 59-80.
(1989).

(390pp.),,,86.
Tanioka, Y. and K. Satake (2001a). Detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake
estimated from tsunami waveforms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1075-1078.
Tanioka, Y. and K. Satake (2001b). Coseismic slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai earthquake andaseismic slips caused by the earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 53, 235-241.
(1986).

(),, 35, 343-355.
(1996).

[],,.

Wells, D. L. and K. J. Coppersmith (1994). New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length,rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, 974-1002.
Wessel, P. and W. H. F. Smith (1995). New version of the Generic Mapping Tools released, EOS Trans.
Am. Geophys. Union, 76, 329.
Yamanaka, Y., and K. Shimazaki (1990). Scaling relationship between the number of aftershocks and thesize of the mainshock, J. Phys. Earth, 38, 305-324.

1case 4[1(2002)

Someville et al. (1999)(σ)Well and Coppersmith (1994)
Someville et al. (1999)

13]

()

2[(2001)]
3[Boatwright (1988)

4(a)

]

(b)
(σ)

5()

X

[(2001a)

]
6()

()

(2001a)7()(((2001a)[]), 1999)[]8-1()(2001a)(]) [1854((1986)((2001a))(]]) [1854((1996))(1999)

1995[][(2002)]101995HTK(LG)[(2002)]

11 KBU(case 1
[12 HTK((2002)[(1999)8-29))(2002)

case 4)NS]KBU( )(case 4)]

14[Table 1 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )rupture area (km2)

104

Somerville et al. (1999)
This study
standard deviation

103

Wells and Coppersmith (1994)
M0>7.5x1025 dyne-cm : Mw>6.52
102

Somerville et al. (1999)
Miyakoshi (2002)
low angle dip-slip fault

101
1024

1025

1026

1027

1028

M0 (dyne-cm = 10-7 Nm)

Fig. 1 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球)

(b)

104

104

area of largest asperities (km2)

combined area of asperity (km2)

(a)

103

102

101

103

102

101

100

100
101

102

103

rupture area (km2)

104

101

102

103

104

rupture area (km2)

Fig. 2 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 3 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 4 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 5 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )Fig. 6rev 入倉・三宅(2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 7 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )Fig. 8-1rev 入倉・三宅(2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 8-2rev 入倉・三宅(2002, 月刊地球)

Fig. 9 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )Fig. 10 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )Fig. 11 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )Fig. 12 (入倉・三宅, 2002, 月刊地球 )