Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
Southeast Asia Division 2Southeast Asia and Pacific Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Basic Information
Country: Kingdom of Cambodia (Cambodia)
Project: COVID-19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan (Phase 2)
Loan Agreement: January 12, 2022
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current status and issues relating to coronavirus pandemic in the country and theposition of this project
Amid the global spread of novel coronavirus (hereinafter referred to as "COVID-19")
infection, the Kingdom of Cambodia (hereinafter referred to as "Cambodia") had been
relatively successful in controlling infection for more than one year since theidentification of the first domestic case in January 2020; however, infection spread
after a community-acquired infection was confirmed on February 20, 2021, and thegovernment declared a lockdown for the first time in April of the same year. From theend of June to the middle of July, amid the third wave of infections, the number of
newly infected people reached 1,000 per day at peak times, leading to the introductionof various measures including continuous movement restriction. After that, in early
October, the number of newly infected people per day declined to just under 600, but
the situation is still unpredictable.
Regarding vaccine procurement and vaccination, the Royal Government of
Cambodia (hereinafter referred to as “RGC”) established a national committee in May
2021 in order to formulate and manage vaccination program plans nationwide andpromote training of medical workers, with the aim of vaccinating 10 million people, or
62% of the population (approximately 16 million), and 13 million people in the first halfof 2022. As of October 5, the vaccination rate had reached 67.24% of the population,with the vaccination program progressing at a pace higher than initially expected.
Furthermore, the vaccination rate is the second highest among Southeast Asian
countries after Singapore.
However, the country's medical system has not reached the level needed to meetthe universal health coverage (UHC) indicated by the WHO, with many issues to beaddressed, especially in the field of health and medical care services in rural areas. In
addition, since it is necessary to implement COVID-19 measures at the same time, thefinancial burden in the field of medical and health care services is expected to increasein the short and medium term. Under such circumstances, the RGC aims to speed up
the approval and implementation of the country's major health sector policy, the Fourth
Health Strategic Plan (2022-2030) (hereinafter referred to as "HSP4"), whose
formulation has been delayed due to the influence of COVID-19, in addition to
speeding up its efforts to implement the COVID-19 measures and achieve the UHC.
Through proactively attracting more outside investment and an abundant labor force
centering on young people, Cambodia has maintained an average economic growthrate of 7.6% from 1995 to 2019. However, in 2020, the impact of the pandemic severelyaffected the country's major industries, such as the garment industry, the tourist
industry, and the foreign-invested construction/real estate industries, with theeconomic growth rate dropping to minus 3.1%, which has had a significant impact on
the actual economy (World Bank, 2021). Under such circumstances, from the earlystage of the spread of infection, the RGC has taken measures to stabilize the economy
and society, distributed subsidies to the poor, introduced loan systems for companies,
and implemented tax-reduction measures. In November 2020, through co-financing
with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), JICA agreed to support the RGC, which had
made efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 infection, maintain and revitalize
economic and social activities, and protect socially vulnerable people, with the COVID19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan (hereinafter referred to as "Phase 1")(approval amount of 25 billion yen), and completed disbursement in January 2021.
However, due to the prolonged global stagnation of demand, the recovery of the exportindustry is still uncertain, and household incomes and consumer spending haveseverely declined due to the effects from prolonged movement restrictions; it has
therefore been pointed out that it is necessary to continue to support the poor andvulnerable (ADB, 2021).
In May 2021, the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Cambodia (hereinafterreferred to as "MEF") formulated an economic policy, the Post-COVID-19 Economic
Recovery Plan 2021-2023, in response to the current pandemic situation, with the aimof implementing economic measures focusing on economic recovery measures forbusiness recovery, independence support and employment creation, structural reform
measures for industry diversification and competitiveness enhancement, andeconomy strengthening measures for sustainability improvement.
In response to such circumstances, the RGC requested the Japanese government
to provide emergency financial support of 200 million dollars. The COVID-19 Crisis
Response Emergency Support Loan (Phase 2) (hereinafter referred to as "thisproject") is designed to provide financial support to the RGC promoting COVID-19
infection control and economic and social stabilization measures. Implementing thisproject is expected to improve the livelihood of the poor and vulnerable through theimplementation of relief measures, ensuring access to maternal health services for
pregnant women, enhancing financial inclusion through the development of institutions
for small and medium-sized enterprises, and making government finances resilient
enough to deal with a future economic crisis through the implementation of measures
for structural reform and fiscal soundness. Furthermore, it is expected that
implementing vaccinations as planned will contribute to the control of COVID-19
infection and the achievement of the UHC by improving health and medical careservices.
(2) Japan and JICA's cooperation policy against COVID-19 and the position of thisproject
In the Country Analysis Paper for the Kingdom of Cambodia (March 2014),"enhancement of economic foundation", "promotion of social development" and"enhancement of governance" were pointed out as key areas, and in the Country
Development Cooperation Policy for the Kingdom of Cambodia (July 2017), "industrial

promotion", "better quality of life" and "realization of a sustainable society throughstrengthening governance" were stipulated, stating that efforts will be made to further
strengthen the economic and social infrastructure, develop human resources andstrengthen governance, and thus is consistent with these analyses and policies.
In addition, this project, stipulating policy actions for economic revitalizationconsidering the poor and gender issues, etc. is believed to contribute to theachievement of SDG 1 (No poverty), SDG 3 (Good health and well-being) and SDG 8(Decent work and economic growth).
(3) Other donors’ activities
In February 2020, the World Bank approved an emergency grant aid (14 million
dollars) to enhance RGC’s capabilities to respond to COVID-19. In June 2021, theWorld Bank approved a development policy loan of 200 million dollars, which is cofinanced under this project.
The ADB implemented a COVID-19 development policy loan of 250 million dollars
for Cambodia in July 2020 (co-financing with JICA). Also, the ADB is discussing a plan
to offer support to Cambodia as part of the Asia Pacific Vaccine Access Facility(APVAX) amounting to 9 billion dollars, aimed at speeding up the procurement anddistribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is discussing a plan to provide co-financeto the APVAX, in addition to implementing a regional infrastructure development
project (totaling 65 million dollars) in the COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility in
September 2020.
In April 2020, the EU announced that it would provide a grant aid of 67 million dollars
to support COVID-19 measures, and in June of the same year, it announced that it
would provide assistance including 483 million dollars of grants and loans.
In addition, China provided medical equipment free of charge in 2020, and in 2021,
it provided 25 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines. Also, regarding vaccine
procurement, COVAX provided 655,000 doses, the Japanese government provided
1.075 million doses, the US government provided 1.06 million doses, and the British
government provided 415,000 doses.
3. Project Description(1) Project objective
The objective of the Program is to support the government’s COVID-19 emergency
response to prevent spread of infection, protect vulnerable people, provide relief
measures for enterprises, maintain and revitalize economic activities, and build
resilience against future economic shocks, through providing budget support, thereby
contributing to promoting the socio-economic stabilization and development efforts of
the Kingdom of Cambodia.
(2) Project site / Target area
Entire Cambodia(3) Beneficiaries of this project (target groups)

The people of Cambodia (especially poor and socially vulnerable people and smalland medium-sized enterprises)(4) Project components
In an attempt to enhance economic and social stabilization amid the spread of
COVID-19 infection, based on the attached policy matrix, this project aims to support(i) Continuing to provide timely and targeted relief to the affected population, (ii)
Facilitating robust recovery through structural reforms, (iii) Building resilience against
future economic shocks, (iv) Emergency response to COVID-19, and (v)Strengthening of health system. These are consistent with the areas on which the
RGC has concentrated its efforts for the emergent response to the spread of COVID19 infection. Also, based on the achievement targets of each policy action, two
tranches will be set: one with a target to be achieved in October 2021, and the otherwith a target to be achieved in February 2022.
(5) Estimated project cost
20 billion yen (amount covered by ODA loans: 20 billion yen)(6) Schedule
The financial support for this project is to start at the time of the signing the L/A. Of
the policy actions of this project, the policy actions set by the World Bank, the cofinancing partner, were confirmed to have been achieved as of June 2021; however,
the target time for achieving the policy actions is set by JICA on its own for eachtranche, one to be achieved in October 2021, and the other to be achieved in February2022; the loans are to be disbursed after confirming achievement of the policy actions
for each tranche. The project is to be completed at the completion of disbursement(scheduled for April 2022). Of the policy actions, two policy issues (“Emergency
response to COVID-19" and "Strengthening of health system") are policy actions set
by JICA on its own accord (see attachment).
(7) Project implementation structure1) Borrower: The Royal Government of Cambodia
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: Ministry of Economy and Finance(8) Other projects, collaboration and sharing of roles with other donors
1) Japan’s activity
This project is designed to continuously support various measures related toeconomic recovery and social protection taken by the RGC, which was supported
through Phase 1 (approved in November 2020, approved amount: 25 billion yen,disbursement completed). In addition, the "The Project for Strengthening In-Service
Training for Health Human Resources" (scheduled to start in November 2021)
includes a plan to enhance the postgraduate training system for nurses, and the fullscale operation of an in-service training system for health care workers, which is aprerequisite for the smooth implementation of the project, is to be promoted throughthe policy actions of this project.

2) Other donors’ activity
This project is co-financed by “Cambodia Relief, Recovery and Resilience
Development Policy Financing” (200 million dollars) of the World Bank which
includes policy actions to relieve affected households and companies and measuresfor economic recovery.
(9) Environmental and social consideration/cross-sectoral issues/gender category
1) Environmental and social considerations① Category: C② Reason for Categorization: This project is judged to have minimal undesired
impact on the environment according to "JICA's Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations” (issued in April 2010)
2) Cross-sectoral issues① Poverty alleviation and consideration for the poor: The government's crisis
response program includes direct support for the poor and sociallyvulnerable affected by COVID-19.
② Consideration for the disabled: The above-mentioned socially vulnerable
includes people with disabilities.
3) Gender category: "GI (S): Gender informed (Significant)"<Details of activities/Reason for categorization> The target of public assistance topoor households included in the crisis response program by the RGC include a
certain percentage or more of women.
(9) Other Important Issues: Nothing in particular
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and effect indicators)
Indicator
Procurement ratio of
COVID-19 vaccines fortarget population (over 12)
to be fully vaccinated(Note 1)
The number of population
fully vaccinated Number ofvaccinated people(Note 1)
The number of IDPoor
beneficiary households
having received COVID-19
cash transfer (Note 2)
The number of eligible
beneficiaries (poor pregnant

Baseline

Target (June 2022)(Note 3)0
(As of January 2021)

100%

0(As of January 2021)

10 million

0(2019 result)

690,000

58,324(2019 result)

360,000

women and children) having
received maternal and childhealth cash transfer (Note 2)
The number of beneficiarybusinesses supported by
SMEBC risk-sharing facility
for SME credit (Note 2)0(2019 result)

500

Note 1: JICA's original indicator
Note 2: Same as the indicator of the World Bank, the co-financing partner
Note 3: Quantitative effects will be monitored and evaluated around the same time determined by
the World Bank, the co-financing partner. Qualitative effects will be evaluated through expost evaluation two years after the completion of the project.

(2) Qualitative effects
Convergence of COVID-19 infection, economic and social stability in Cambodia.
(3) Internal rate of return
Since this project is a program-type loan project, internal rate of return is not to be
calculated.
5. Prerequisites/External Conditions(1) Preconditions: Nothing in particular.
(2) External Factors: Nothing in particular.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to This Project
The ex-post evaluations of the emergency financial support loans for three countries
in Southeast Asia (“Emergency Budget Support Loan” for Philippines, “Climate
Change Program Loan (II) (economic stimulus support)” for Indonesia, and “TheEighth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (economic stimulus support)” for Vietnam)
show the following lesson: If one of the purposes of emergency budget support is toprovide funds promptly to allow quicker response to crises, the time when the support
is provided is very important to enhance the effects; therefore, it is desirable to simplify
the procedure to provide support as much as possible and make the scheme adaptive
and flexible.
Considering the above-mentioned lesson, this project is carried out as co-financing
with the World Band's emergency budget support and the formulation of a policy matrix
is simplified, which makes it possible to quickly provide budget support for the
implementation of the RGC's measures to control infection, maintain and activate
economic and social activities, protect the socially disadvantaged.
7. Evaluation Results
This project is in line with Cambodia's development issues and policies as well as
the cooperation policies and analyses of Japan and JICA, mitigates the impact of
COVID-19 through financial support by co-financing with the World Bank, andcontributes to the maintenance and activation of social activities as well as theprotection of the socially disadvantaged, thus being expected to contribute to theachievement of SDG 1 (No poverty), SDG 3 (Good health and well-being) and SDG

8 (Decent work and economic growth); therefore, it is extremely necessary to support
the implementation of this project.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be used
As indicated in Section 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the project completion.
END

Attachment
Policy Matrix for COVID-19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan (Phase 2)

Pillars

Objective

Continuing toStrengthening of social protection for theprovide timely and poor and economically vulnerable,
targeted relief to theaffected
population (*1)

Facilitating robust
recovery throughTrigger Actions for JICA Loan
(2nd Tranche)(Target to be achieved in Feb
2022)
The COVID-19 Cash Transfer
The number of IDPoor beneficiary
The number of IDPoor beneficiary
Program for IDPoor Households including households having received COVID-19 households having received
the new poor up to June
cash transfers is reached
COVID-19 cash transfers is
2021 is enacted.
up to 674,000.
reached up to 680,000.
Prior Actions for World Bank program(Achieved as of June 2021)

Trigger Actions for JICA Loan
(1st Tranche)(Target to be achieved in Oct 2021)

The Ministry of Social Affairs, Veterans The number of eligible beneficiaries The number of eligible
and Youth Rehabilitation is appointed as (poor pregnant women and children) beneficiaries (poor pregnant
the implementing agency for the Cashhaving received maternal and child women and children) having
Transfer Program for Pregnant Women health cash transfers is reached up
received maternal and childand Children Under Two, and guidelines to236,000.
health cash transfers is reached
for monitoring and evaluating said
up to250,000.
Program is finalized.
Strengthening of employment-based social The Non-Bank Financial Authority Law N/A
N/A
insurancethat mandates supervisory authority over
the National Social Security Fund isenacted.
Enhancement of access to finance for small The new Business Recovery Guarantee The number of beneficiary businesses The number of beneficiaryand medium enterprises (SMEs)
Scheme and the risk-sharing facility for supported by the SMEBC risk-sharing businesses supported by the
SME credit as part of the COVID-19
facility for SME credit is reached up SMEBC risk-sharing facility for
response is launched.
to 100 loan account.
SME credit is reached up
to 400 loans accounts.
Reduction of non-tariff barriers and lower The number of tariff lines requiring trade N/A
N/A
trade costs
permits are reduced, and the list ofstructuralreforms (*1)

prohibited and restricted goods is
updated.
Reduction of the cost of doing business
An online portal for business registration N/A
N/A
with streamlined procedures islaunched, and registration fees are
reduced.
Building resilience Strengthening of public finance
The Law on Government Securities
N/A
N/A
against future
management practices and increase
and the Public Investment Management
economictransparency
Sub-decree, which creates a common
shocks (*1)
framework for a public investment
management system across all sources offinancing and at all levelsof government are published in the Royal
Gazette.
Modernizing the legal framework for anti- The Law on Anti-Money Laundering and N/A
N/A
money laundering and combatting the
Combating the Financing of Terrorism isfinancing of terrorism
enacted, and a Directive on Customer
Due Diligence Measures is issued.
Improvement of the efficiency of revenue An online portal for business registration The number of businesses that file tax The number of businesses that filecollection
with streamlined procedures isonline is reached up to 30,000.
tax online is reached up
launched, and registration fee isto 32,000.
reduced.
Emergency Response Promotion of Inoculation based
N/A
The Implementation plan for
Procurement of vaccines toto COVID-19 (*2)
on the Vaccine Deployment and Inoculation
vaccination deployment is developed cover 100%plan
based on the National Deployment of the target population (over age
and Vaccination Plan for COVID-19
12) is confirmed.
Vaccines (January 2021).
N/A
The Master Plan for COVID-19
Ten (10) million people aged 18
Vaccination Deployment throughout and over are inoculated.
the country (March 2021) (for adultaged 18 and over) is developedand implemented.
Strengthening of COVID-19 Testing
N/A
COVID-19 testing capacity is
COVID-19 testing capacity is
and Diagnosis Capacity
developed at the national level
developed at the provincial level(National Institute of Public Health, (laboratories of eight (8)National Center for Tuberculosis and provincial hospitals).

Strengthening of
Health System (*2)

Strengthening of Health Care Delivery
System

Improvement of Capacity of
Health Workforce

N/A

Leprosy Control, National BloodBank)
The number of beds that accept
patients with severe COVID-19
symptoms is increased up to
1,500 (No. of beds).

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Hospitals of 4 provinces(Siemreap, Battambang,
Sihanoukville, and Steung Treng)for COVID-19 patients areoperational for patients withsevere and critical COVID-19
symptoms
The progress of discussions on
upgrading provincial hospitals toregional hospitals is shared withJICA.
The progress of development ofForth Health Strategic Plan (HSP4)
is shared with JICA.
Discussions todevelop Guidelines for in-service
training for nursing are initiated.

(*1) the same pillars and objectives as the World Bank’s Program. However, the trigger actions for October 2021 and February 2022
are original for the Project(*2) original pillars and trigger actions for the project