GEWEX Science plan | 2023−2032
The Global Energy &Water Exchanges
Project

GEWEX Science Plan
2023 - 2032

Addressing the challenges in understanding and predicting
Changes to water availability in the coming decades

WCRP Publication No.: 9/2021

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GEWEX Science plan | 2023−2032

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Bibliographic information
The GEWEX Science Plan should be cited as:
GEWEX, 2021. Global Energy and Water EXchanges (GEWEX) Science Plan (2023-2032),
WCRP Publication 9/2021;: Online; 12 pp.
Contact information
All enquiries regarding the GEWEX Scientific Plan (2023-2032) should be directed to
gewex@gewex.org.
Image credits
Cover Page: Brainard Lake 2021, CO, U.S.A.
All images courtesy of P. van Oevelen, unless indicated otherwise.
Copyright noticeThis report is published by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) under aCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 IGO License (CC BY-ND 4.0 IGO,
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/) and thereunder made available for sharing
for any purpose, subject to the license’s terms, including proper attribution.
Authorship and publisher’s notice
The GEWEX Science Plan 2023-2032 was prepared by the GEWEX Scientific SteeringGroup, GEWEX Panel Co-Chairs and the International GEWEX Project Office.
Dr. Ir. P. van Oevelen
Dr. J. Polcher
Prof. Dr. X. Zeng
Dr. G. Balsamo
Dr. M. Bosilovich
Prof. Q. Duan
Dr. G. Hegerl
Dr. C. Jakob
Prof. Dr. G. Poveda
Dr. G. Stephens
Prof. Dr. Z. Su
Dr. D. Klocke
Dr. S. Bony
Dr. R. Roca
Prof. T. L’Ecuyer
Prof. F. Dominguez
Prof. A. Nazemi
Dr. K. Findell
Prof. A. Verhoef

Director, GEWEX International Project Office
Co-Chair SSG
Co-Chair SSG
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
SSG Member
GASS Co-ChairGASS Co-Chair
GDAP Co-Chair
GDAP Co-Chair
GHP Co-Chair
GHP Co-Chair
GLASS Co-Chair
GLASS Co-ChairGEWEX Science plan | 2023−2032

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Table of Contents

1.

General context ...................................................................................................................1

2.

About GEWEX .....................................................................................................................2
2.1.

What is GEWEX .......................................................................................................2

2.2.

What Does GEWEX Do? ..........................................................................................2

2.3.

How is GEWEX Organized? ....................................................................................23.

GEWEX Science Goals .......................................................................................................4

4.

Strategic activities. .............................................................................................................55.

Relation to the WCRP strategic plan and the Lighthouse Activities (LHAs). .............96.

Opportunities (TBD). ........................................................................................................11

7.

Expected outcomes and beneficiaries. ..........................................................................13

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Four faces of Extremes – Storms, Floods, fires and droughts – by Graeme Stephens (2020)

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1. General context
Water is essential for life on Earth and the sustainable
management of our water resources in a changing
climate increasingly looms as an imperative for the
coming century. Today, management of water
resources already faces formidable challenges arisingfrom both the expected increased demands from
population growth and the sustained economic
development in the coming century as well as theincreased vulnerability of our freshwater resources
The Delta Works in the Netherlands, consisting of 13
globally from over-abstraction, pollution and changing sections, together form the largest flood protection
distributions of water supply. Environmental change system in the world. (© Mirko Tobias Schäfer)adds additional pressures on our precious freshwater
resources and anthropogenic inﬂuences are changing land and water systems, redeﬁning thestate of drainage basins and the rivers, lakes and groundwater that supply the bulk of
renewable freshwater to society. Widespread changes to our landscape as a result of land-use
changes associated with population increases, urbanization, agriculture and industrialization
are changing hydrological systems in complex ways, and for many of the world’s major rivers,
water management is changing the ﬂows, often with severe effects on downstream users,
aquatic ecosystems and freshwater discharges to the world’s seas and oceans.
Superimposed on these different challenges are the lingering and sustained influences of theincreasing levels of greenhouse gasses concentrations that are changing Earth’s climate. It isthe coupling between water and Earth’s energy balance that fundamentally shapes Earthsystem feedbacks that in turn determine how the climate is changing and its ultimate
influence on Earth’s fresh water supplies. The projected climate change along with effects ofclimate variability combine to create extreme and perhaps unprecedented conditions whichhave high impact for human populations, economic assets and critical physical infrastructure
and our natural environment. Hydrological extremes, which are triggered by e.g. extreme
rainfall or lack of precipitation and amplified by land surface processes, are the natural
disasters which claim the most lives and cause the most damage to infrastructures.

Glacier Grey: Glacial Retreat & Polution
Torres del Paine Nat. Park, Chili

Among the WCRP Core Projects, global and regional waterand energy cycles have always been the focus of GEWEX.
They are also coupled with the carbon cycle. To address theabove challenge, anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle
will be emphasized. Section 2 provides general information
about GEWEX and its organization. GEWEX goals andstrategic activities will be discussed in Sections 3 and 4, andrelations to planned WCRP activities will be presented in
Section 5. Opportunities in the next decade will be discussed
in Section 6, with expected outcomes provided in Section 7.

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2. About GEWEX
2.1. What is GEWEXThe Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project is a core project of World
Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and is dedicated to understanding Earth’s water
cycle and energy fluxes at the surface and in the atmosphere. GEWEX is a network ofscientists gathering information on and researching the global water and energy cycles,
which will help to predict changes in the world’s climate.
WCRP is co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), theIntergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO and the International
Science Council (ISC). See www.wmo.int, www.ioc-unesco.org and council.science.

2.2. What Does GEWEX Do?
GEWEX coordinates science activities to facilitate research into the global water cycle andinteractions between the land and the atmosphere. One of the primary influences on humans
and the environments they live in, the global water cycle encompasses the continuous journeyof water as it moves between the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and beneath the Earth’s
surface. Clouds, precipitation, water vapor, surface radiation, aerosols, and other phenomenaeach play a role in the cycle. Many GEWEX scientists conduct research on those and otherelements to help fine-tune our understanding of them and their impact on the climate. GEWEX
also points out important gaps in knowledge
and implements ways to fix those gaps,
whether through new studies, reviews ofdatasets, gatherings of experts, or otheropportunities.

The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) Station at NyÅlesund, Svalbard, Norway, one of the longest-serving BSRN
stations. GEWEX Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 3, Q3 2021 pg. 12-15.

2.3. How is GEWEX Organized?
The GEWEX Scientific Steering Group (SSG) guides the formation of GEWEX’s scientificprogram, and is comprised of scientists from across the world who study issues related to theglobal water and energy cycles. In addition to monitoring and shaping the course for
GEWEX, the SSG briefs the Joint Steering Committee of our parent organization, WCRP, on
progress made within GEWEX and general advances in understanding in our areas ofscientific expertise.

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The four GEWEX Panels oversee, facilitate and support the international community in theworking groups and projects that carry out The GEWEX scientific program.
Global Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) Panel activities facilitate and support
the international community that carries out and uses observations, process
studies, and numerical model experiments with the goal of advancing theunderstanding and prediction of weather and climate. Primarily, GASS coordinates
scientific projects that bring together experts to contribute to the physicalunderstanding of atmospheric processes and their representation in weather andclimate models.
GEWEX Data and Analysis Panel (GDAP) guides the production and evaluation oflong term, global atmospheric, surface water, and energy budget products.
GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP) aims to understand and predict
continental to local-scale hydroclimates for hydrologic applications.
Global Land/Atmosphere System Study focuses on model development andevaluation, concentrating on the new generation of land surface models.

The focus of the four GEWEX panels in relation to the global and regional water and energy cycles(© P. van Oevelen, 2020)

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3. GEWEX Science Goals
In recognition of the emerging challenges in understanding how the water cycle is changing
in response to different pressures, and in an attempt to make progress in addressing theissues central to them, GEWEX proposes a focus around three overarching goals. One goalis centrally focused on prediction, another with the critical coupled interactions that define thephysical system and the third delves into anthropogenic influence on the water cycle
especially in relation to water resources on the continental and regional scale.

Goal # 1:
Determine the extent to which Earth’s water cycle can be predicted. This Goal is framedaround making quantitative progress on three related areas posed in terms of the following
questions:
1. Reservoirs: What is the rate of expansion of the fast reservoirs (atmosphere and land
surfaces), what is its spatial character, what factors determine this and to what extent
are these changes predictable?
2. Flux exchanges: To what extent are the fluxes of water between Earth’s main
reservoirs changing and can these changes be predicted and if so on what time/spacescale?
3. Precipitation Extremes: How will local rainfall and its extremes change under climatechange across the regions of the world?

Goal # 2:
Quantify the inter-relationships between Earth’s energy, water and carbon cycles to advanceour understanding of the system and our ability to predict it across scales:
1. Forcing-feedback understanding: How can we improve the understanding of climate
forcings and feedbacks formed by energy, water and carbon exchanges?
2. ABL process representation: To what extent are the properties of the atmosphericboundary layer (ABL) defined by sensible and latent energy and water exchanges at the
Earth’s surface versus within the atmosphere (i.e., horizontal advection and ABL-freeatmosphere exchanges)?
3. Understanding Circulation controls: To what extent are exchanges between water,energy and carbon determined by the large-scale circulations of the atmosphere andoceans?
4. Land-atmosphere interactions: How can we improve the understanding of the role ofland surface-atmospheric interactions in the water, energy and carbon budgets acrossspatiotemporal scales?

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Goal # 3:
Quantify anthropogenic influences on the water cycle and our ability to understand andpredict changes to Earth’s water cycle.
1. Anthropogenic forcing of continental scale water availability: To what extent has
the changing greenhouse effect modified the water cycle over different regions andcontinents?
2. Water management influences: To what extent do water management practices andland use change (e.g., deforestation) modify the water cycle on regional to global
scales?
3. Variability and trends of water availability: How do water & land use and climatechange affect the variability (including extremes) of the regional and continental
watecycle?

– Land surface Atmospheric Interactions and surface runoff –Woodstock, VA, U.S.A.

4. Strategic activities
A number of discrete activities under each goal represent a tangible path forward for
addressing these GEWEX goals. Progress under these tasks requires the exploitation of
improved data sets of precipitation, river discharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration,snowpack, and related variables such as water storage, vegetation, land use change data,
among other information. This information is to be synchronized with advances in Earthsystem modeling across scales to advance the development of an integrated analysis of thewater and energy exchanges within and between the atmospheric and continental reservoirs.
The coupling of the energy and water cycles with the carbon cycle is also explicitly included,
for the first time, in the GEWEX goals (i.e., Goal #2). Together, these are steps required to
improve our ability to predict changes to Earth’s water cycle and will provide the tools to help
close the water budget over land, provide improved information for products related to water
availability and quality for decision makers and for initializing and assessing climate

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predictions across multiple time scales. Detecting and attributing past changes to the water
cycle to either changing greenhouse gasses or land and water usage will be essential toincrease our confidence in our understanding of prediction tools.
Goal # 1(i) Document, quantify and explain space/time changes to Earth’s hydrological cycle,
expressed by atmospheric and surface hydrological properties and the processes thatshape these changes. This includes water vapor, clouds, soil moisture, snowpack, fluxesof water at the land and ocean surface (P, ET, Runoff, Sublimation, etc), transports within
the atmosphere, and water transport in the land system as a way of quantifying
exchanges of water between Earth’s water reservoirs with uncertainty characterizations.
A crucial task would be to close the water balance at a regional scale. For instance, for
the Amazon or Mississippi River basin, to what degree can we close the balance in termsof the mean seasonal cycle? To what degree can we close the balance in terms of theinterannual variability and trends?
(ii) Provide global assessments of the weather features that shape rainfall and snowfall,
including extremes and assess the representation of these processes in models used to
predict and project precipitation and its extremes. Specifically, a focus on identification
and reduction of model systematic errors in precipitation, including on daily and sub daily
time scales is proposed. This task would then link to improving our understanding ofprocesses and predictive skills at the catchment level and in particular droughts andfloods. Here comprehensive and synergistic analysis of observational data and global
and regional high-resolution simulations will be needed.

Researchers at the Maqu site of the Tibetan soil moisture and soil temperature observation network (TibetObs), where the European Space Agency has provided an L-band microwave obersvation system (ELBARAIII) for ground-based observations. GEWEX Quarterly, Vol. 31, No.1, Quarter 1, 2021 pg. 8-10.

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Goal # 2(i) Characterize the properties of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and advance ourquantitative understanding of the ways the ABL influences Earth’s climate system.
GEWEX would provide a synthesis of information that offers a global characterization of
the diurnal cycle of the boundary layer, including its space/time variability, its
dependence on land surface dynamics (e.g., in soil moisture and temperature, snowpack,vegetation) and heterogeneity (e.g., in topography, natural and anthropogenic land-water
contrast, soil moisture and temperature) and the extent that the ABL is defined by land
atmosphere exchange processes of water and energy. This knowledge serves as a basis
for assessing the representation of the diurnal cycle of the ABL in models and therepresentation of processes that influence the ABL.
(ii) Provide a synthesis of Earth’s energy and water budget, globally, regionally and overvarying time scales. This also includes making advances to methods that can provide
quantitative estimates of the Earth’s global energy and water imbalance. At regional
scale (e.g., for the Amazon or Mississippi River basin), we need to close the energy
and water balance in terms of the mean seasonal cycle, inter-annual variability, andtrends.
(iii) Advance our understanding of the interactions between water, energy and carbon withfocus on critical Earth system feedbacks, including water vapor feedbacks, cloud
feedbacks, precipitation-related feedbacks and surface-related feedbacks (e.g., snow
albedo feedbacks, vegetation related feedbacks). This will also include a focus on criticalaspects of climate forcing with special attention to aerosol influences on cloud andprecipitation processes. The role of the large-scale circulations of the atmosphere andoceans in shaping these interactions will be central element of these efforts.
Goal # 3(i) Attribute observed changes of the continental water cycle to climate change and waterand land management. These modifications have been ongoing at the large scale forover a century and their importance has been recognized more widely in recent years
We need to develop the expertise to assess the sustainability of man’s water and land
management in a changing climate.
We also need to:▪
quantify the effects of water withdrawals and usage (including reservoirs and dams) on
the freshwater flows into the oceans, the effects of water withdrawal and land usechange on river discharge within climate variability,▪
quantify effects of irrigation and urbanization on the dynamics of the ABL and its
diurnal cycle in particular, and

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quantify water cycle extremes (e.g., drought, flooding) in a managed environment anddevelop predictive tools which will allow to better inform society in its efforts to build
sustainable and resilient infrastructures.

(ii) Evaluate the contribution of groundwater and subsurface processes to land/atmosphereexchanges and over longer periods on the global water imbalance and sea level.
(iii) Quantify declines in cryospheric reservoirs and changes in snow seasons and melting
glaciers. The reduction of water stored on land in a frozen state will modify the timing andvolume of water resources which can threaten the sustainability of some hydrologicalinfrastructures.
Impact of initialized land temperature and snowpack on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction”(LS4P) and “Third Pole Experiment Multi-Model Intercomparison” (TPEMIP)

Comparison between observed anomalies and LS4P 20-Mod- el Ensemble mean bias. 1(a) and 1(b) Observed
May 2003 T-2m and June 2003 pre- cipitation anomalies, respectively; 1(c) and 1(d) LASP model ensemble
mean May 2003 T-2m bias and June 2003 precipitation bias when models have cold bias over the TP. Everymodel has a large T-2m bias over the Tibetan Plateau area. For models with posi- tive T-2m bias, the T-2m
and precipitation biases are multiplied by -1 to be included in the composite. GEWEX Quarterly, Vol. 24, No.
4, Q4, 2019 pg. 1

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5. Relation to the WCRP strategic plan and the Lighthouse
Activities (LHAs).
The Lighthouse Activities (LHAs, Fig. 1) of the WCRP are meant to provide a framework for
activities that cut across existing disciplinary driven structure. This should facilitate theexchange between core projects and enable WCRP as a whole to more efficiently address
the challenges society faces in a changing climate. Because Earth’s water cycle is both
central to and integrative of most topics addressed by the WCRP, the activities of GEWEX
are expected to be core to most LHA’s.
1. Digital Earths: To develop a digital and dynamic representation of the Earth system,
optimally blending models and observations, to enable an exploration of past, present,
and possible futures of the Earth system. This LHA will integrate the impact of humanland and water management systems which interact with the weather and climate
processes. GEWEX will contribute its model development capabilities and the regional
expertise we have built through the regional hydroclimate projects organized over the
decades.

LHA Digital Earth: A global interactive
information system describing past, present
and future states of planet Earth.
© Chr. Jakobs, 2021, Digital Earth Lighthouse
Activity presentation, GEWEX SSG 33

2. Explaining and predicting Earth System Change: To design, and take major steps
toward delivery of, an integrated capability for quantitative observation, explanation, early
warning, and prediction of Earth System Change on global and regional scales, with afocus on multi-annual to decadal timescales. GEWEX’s contribution will focus on theprocesses linked to latent and sensible energy exchanges in the atmospheric andcontinental reservoirs.

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3. My Climate Risk: To develop a new framework for assessing and explaining regional
climate risk to deliver climate information that is meaningful at the local and regional
scale. Water is not only a geophysical variable but also an essential element of societal
and economic importance. It is only at the regional scale where these interactions can beunderstood and our predictions of the global changes translated into relevant information.
GEWEX has already brought together the scientific community around trans-disciplinary
research projects in some of the regions and will be available for the objectives of thisLHA.
4. Safe Landing Climates: To explore the routes toclimate-safe landing 'spaces’ for human and natural
systems, on multi-decadal to centennial timescales;
to connect climate, Earth system, and socioeconomic sciences; to explore present-to-future“pathways” for the achievement of key United
Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Water, asemphasized by GEWEX, is societies’ most precious
resource which needs to be manageable andsustainable in a future climate to ensure a safe
landing space. The inclusion of the energy andwater cycle coupling with the carbon cycle in theGoal #2 of GEWEX also represents GEWEX’scontribution to this LHA.

© G. Hegerl, 2021, LHA Safe Landing presentation,
GEWEX SSG 33

5. WCRP Academy: To establish one or more targeted capacity exchange climate
programmes, working with one or more of the other lighthouses and established climate
education providers, including universities. GEWEX has developed communities andnetworks that can directly benefit from the training made available through the WCRP
Academy. In addition GEWEX community itself develops and organizes training,
workshop, summer schools that can be made available to the WCRP Academy.

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6. Opportunities (TBD).
We can anticipate progress over the next 5-10 years because of major opportunities inobservations, computing, modeling, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), andpartnerships.
New observations (in-situ and from space) will reveal new or incomplete understanding ofprocesses in Earth energy and water cycles. This will come from the expansion of the Earthobserving systems, including Sentinels (ESA), NASA’s designated observables (DO),sustained and enhanced Programs of Records (including ISCCP-NG) as well as lidar
techniques which allow to capture the 3D fields of turbulence and transported scalars. The
development of smallsats and cubesats, drones and other space and airborne platforms has
opened a whole new era of observational capabilities which should be embedded in the more
traditional approaches.

GLAFO
The GEWEX Land-Atmosphere Feedback Observatory
The proposed combination of instruments
and their synergistic interaction at the
GLAFO sites. I: PBL top, II: sub-mesoscalevortex. (1) Satellite remote sensing; (2)vertically staring Doppler, water vapor,temperature and CO2 lidar systems;
atmospheric emitted radi- anceinterferometer (AERI), microwave
radiometer (MWR), cloud radar; (3)scanning Doppler, water vapor,temperature and CO2 lidar systems; (4)scanning Doppler lidar systems; (5) fiberbased distributed sensors; (6) energybalance and eddy covariance stations; (7)un- manned aerial vehicle (UAV); (8) water
vapor and CO2 isotope sensors; (9) soil
moisture and temperature probes; (10) leaf
area index (LAI) measurements; (11) gas
exchange system for photosynthesis andtranspiration rate measurements: (12)tensiometers; (13) in situ canopy
measurements, such as biomass andcanopy height; (14) soil moisture andtemperature net- work; (15) scintillometerand (16) fiber-based soil moisture andtemperature measurements. GEWEX
Quarterly, Vol. 30, No.1, Quarter 1, 2021 pg.
6-11.

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Prolongation of existing observations will reveal new trends and expose unforeseen evolutionof the system which will force us to revisit our assumptions and reexamine the contributionsof the various man-made changes to the energy and water cycles. The longer time series will
also progressively reveal the human responses to changing water resources.
Evolving modeling techniques and exascale computers will enable research and operational
simulations at kilometric scales globally and at even higher resolutions regionally. This will
reveal that some assumptions made for coarser resolutions are not valid anymore(convection parameterization, neglect of hill-slope processes) and need to be revisited. Over
continents these resolutions will reveal that human management of the environment impacts
surface/atmosphere interactions and will thus need to be explicitly represented in order togain the full value for society of (sub)kilometric scale predictions.
Our enhanced observational capabilities and spatially refined models will require newtechniques to be confronted and merged in order to access unobservable parameters in thesystem or determine the state or reservoirs not easily accessible through with the current
observational systems. With the rapid progress in AI/ML, their applications become more
important for GEWEX activities in the physics-inspired AI/ML analysis of huge amount of datafrom observations and model output, in the AI/ML integration with modeling (e.g., to replacesome of the existing physical parameterizations in Earth system models), and in the AI/ML
assistance in data-based scientific discovery and understanding.
The close collaboration of the research groups within GEWEX with operational weather andhydrological services allows to better formulate societal needs in terms of environmental
monitoring and prediction and ensures that scientific topics proposed serve a wiser
management of the environment and an adaptation to changing resources.
The collaboration of GEWEX with iLEAPS and other programs allow us to better understandand model the coupling of the energy and water cycle with the carbon cycle - that becomes
crucial for the climate change at decadal to centennial time scales.

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7. Expected outcomes and beneficiaries.
Integrated observation-based datasets of all elements of the water, energy and carbon cycle
at global and regional scales that can better close the water, energy, and carbon balances
than currently available. This will be the basis for our understanding, model evaluation andimprovement, climate assessment, and education and capacity building.
Better atmospheric models with scale-aware parameterizations from ~100 km to ~1 km, andbetter land models including the treatment of human activities (e.g., reservoirs, dams,
irrigation sytems) and lateral water movements that are not or do not need to be adequately
represented at today’s resolutions. These models and observations will serve to detect andattribute trends in the water cycle and thus build the confidence in our understanding ofprocesses. They will also be the basis for prediction and projection at different time scales,
for risk assessment and scenario planning via sensitivity tests, and for education andcapacity building.
Better understanding processes related to the water and energy cycles as well as theircoupling with the carbon cycle through observational data analyses, modeling, andtheoretical analyses. This will help improve models and improve the observation-model
integration for better observation-based datasets. This will also be the basis for educationand capacity building.
Developing knowledge and tools which will allow society to plan and adapt to future climatechange and ensure that the impact of hydrological extremes become less destructive. This
challenge needs to be addressed by both ends: the development of our geophyscial
understanding as exposed above but also our knowledge of the interactions of society with afluctuating and trending water energy, and carbon cycles.

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For more information contact:
GEWEX International Project Office
Website: www.gewex.org
Email: gewex@gewex.org

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