Yuichi Hosoya

The Rise and Fall of theLiberal International Order: 1919–2019*
Yuichi Hosoya**
Abstract
Reflecting on 100 years anniversar y of the Paris Peace Conference, we need to focus
on the two connections̶the connection between Asia and Europe, and the connection
between the past and the present. This century beginning in 1919 and ending in 2019 canbe remembered as the rise and fall of the liberal international order. The impact and themeaning of 1945 in this time beginning in 1919 and ending in 2019, as well as the importanceof the legacy of 1945 upon the current international order cannot also be ignored. TheCold War division is the first phase of the post–Second World War international order, andthe second phase signifies the consolidation of the liberal international order. We are now
seeing emerging challenges caused by the retreat of the belief in the future of the liberal
democracy. In that sense, we are now clearly facing the limits of the liberal international
order, as well as the future of a liberal democratic regime. That is why, much more than
before, European powers such as France and the UK are key for Japan to collaborate in
defending the liberal international order.

T

he year 2019 marks a good opportunity to reflect on 100 years anniversary of the Paris
Peace Conference. First, we need to focus on the two connections̶the connection
between Asia and Europe, and the connection between the past and the present̶1919and 2019.
Second, we should focus on the importance of the year 1945 as the most important turning point.
This century beginning in 1919 and ending in 2019 can be remembered as the rise and fallof the liberal international order. There are several reasons for reminding of the fall of suchan international order. One of the reasons for this is that the UK, which has the mightiest
military power within the European Union, is now leaving that group. The European Union has
long exemplified the rise of the liberal order that brings both peace and stability in the region.
However, the rise of both nationalism and populism so often weakens the perception thatmultilateral cooperation is essential for the region as well as for the member states. If the UK
leaves the European Union by concluding it is no more relevant for the UK, this would damage
the foundation of the liberal order in Europe.
Likewise, in the end of 2018, President Donald Trump decided to leave UNESCO, one of thekey organizations of the United Nations. It is often reported that President Trump is interested
in retreating from the most important multilateral organizations which the United States belongs
to such as NATO, WTO, or even the United Nations. It does not seem probable that the United*This article is based on a presentation made by the author at the symposium “Asia and Europe fromthe Versailles Treaty to the Present: the Legacies of Post War–Enging and Peace–Making between
Constraints and For ward Looking” held by JIIA and FRS (Foundation for Strategic Research) onJanuary 28, 2019.

** Yuichi Hosoya is Professor of International Politics at Keio University, Tokyo.

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The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order: 1919-2019

States government decides to leave these organizations soon, but the United States, particularly
the current administration, is considering seriously that some of these multilateral institutions areharmful for American national interest.
These perception can have an important ramification for the future of the liberal international
order. Thus, it can be argued that the centur y beginning in 1919 and ending in 2019 will beremembered as the rise and fall of the liberal international order. It is also important to link tworegions, Asia and Europe. The Paris Peace Conference became an important link between thetwo regions, as Japan became one of the five great powers that won the war.
It is also important to remind that both Japan and France played, and are now playing, an
important international role in these two years, namely 1919 and 2019. Both Japan and France
were among the five great powers that created the Paris Peace Treaties. However, Japanʼs rose
was not equal to French one, as France hosted and presided over this great conference.
We also need to remind that a non-European power, Japan, was included in the conference,and began to expand its international influence. In 2019, Japan hosted the G20 Summit meetingin Osaka, and France did likewise the G7 Summit meeting in Biarritz. Japan and France faced
serious challenges, as they needed to prepare for agendas for the future of international order.
If France and Japan can tackle these difficult tasks of responding to the challenges we faceappropriately, we can perhaps enhance and strengthen the current liberal international order.
Then, we need to look at the importance of the year 1945, as well as the importance of thelegacy of 1945 upon the current international order. First, it is important to recognize that there
exist two phases in the post–Second World War international order. The first phase of the post–
Second World War international order relates to the Cold War division. After 1945, we have seen
the division of the world into the two camps̶the Western camp led by the United States, and theCommunist camp, which was mainly controlled by the Soviet Union.
The second phase signifies the consolidation of the liberal international order among Westerncountries. In other words, the meaning of the end of the Cold War is that we no longer see thedivision of the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War, we have seen the enhancement, and also
enlargement of the liberal international order. In the 1990s, we were quite optimistic about thefuture of the liberal international order. We thought that we could continue to see the expansionof the liberal international order. But we were wrong.
In the last ten years, we clearly see the limits and the difficulty of expanding the liberalinternational order, largely because of the rise of authoritarian regimes such as China and Russia.
Both China and Russia are now powerful enough to revise the current international order byusing the threat of their huge military forces. Chinese government has been repeatedly arguingthat the current international order is created by Western powers and China needs to modify it tobe fitted to the current multipolar world.
We are now seeing emerging challenges caused by the retreat of the belief in the futureof the liberal democracy. Many developing countries are attracted by the alternative vision ofgovernance, the authoritarian regime. They see that authoritarian regime can be effective topromote their own economic growth, as they are fascinated by Chinaʼs rapid economic growth.
These developing countries have also been seeing that liberal democracies are now facing serious
deadlocks in, for example, the United States, the UK, and many other European countries. As
a result, we are now disillusioned by liberal democratic regime. It is natural for those countries
to think that liberal democracy is not the only answer to their future. In that sense, we clearly
see the limits of the future of the liberal international order as well as of the future of a liberal
democratic regime. The year 2019 will possibly be the year in world history when many countries
abandon their strong will to defend them.
There exist several remnants of the Second World War, and these have caused difficult
problems among countries in East Asia. On one hand, Japan and the United States have solved
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Yuichi Hosoya

and settled difficult problems at the San Francisco Peace Conference of 1951. However, on theother hand, some of the major powers, such as the Soviet Union and China, did not sign theTreaty. South Korea also was not a participating county in the Peace Conference.
As these countries did not join in the postwar settlement in San Francisco, they tend toconsider that the San Francisco system brought justice to them. After the San Francisco Peace
Conference, Japan needed to negotiate individually with these countries. In 1965, Japan concluded
the Treaty on Basic Relations with the Republic of Korea. In 1978, Japan concluded the Treatyof Peace and Friendship with the Peopleʼs Republic of China. On the other hand, the Japanese
government is yet to conclude a peace treaty with the Russian government because the treaty is
still needed to be drafted.
These are the remnants of the Second World War, and they make Japanʼs political relationships
with these countries difficult. The San Francisco Peace Conference was just a partial settlementof the Second World War in Asia, and still, Japan needs to tackle some of these questions whicharise from the difficulty of the remnants of the Second World War.
In the end, it would be valuable to look at the prospect of defending the liberal internationalorder. Japanʼs historical experience is quite indicative, as Japan has experienced both authoritarianregime and liberal democracy in the last century. In the 1930s, Japan became a challenger to theinternational order. But after 1945, Japan has been trying to become a defender of the liberalinternational order. In the latter 1940s and the 1950s, Japan was not powerful enough to defend
the liberal international order.
However, after the end of the Cold War, Japanese government has been always aware thatJapan can no longer remain a free-rider in the international community. Japan had been number
two economy in the world until China occupied that place in 2010. Today Japan is number
three economy in the world after the United States and China. As the US and China tend toact unilaterally, Japan becomes one of the major powers that respect and defend the liberalinternational order.
The largest problem that we face is that our alliance partner, the United States, is now muchless interested in defending the liberal international order than before. That is why European
powers such as France and the UK become major partners for Japan who are willing to defend
the liberal international order. That would be the main reason why we have seen the rapid
development in the security cooperation between Japan and France, and also Japan and the UK.
This year marks the beginning of Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and Strategic
Par tnership Agreement (SPA) between Japan and the European Union. These for ward–
looking developments can best be understood as an important cornerstone to defend the liberalinternational order.

23Japan Review Vol.3 No.1 Summer 2019