MIS02-01

Room:201A

Time:May 26 09:00-09:15

Earthquake Prediction with Satellite Cloud Image
GUO, Guang meng1∗ ; YANG, Jie1
1

Nanyang Normal University,China

Russian scientists has found some linear clouds in tectonic active area in 1980s, while few papers about this topic were
published in the following 30 years except Russian scientists. One of the reason may be that clouds are difficult to be describedwith numbers or formulas, it is qualitative, and qualitative researches are difficult to be published. After years observation,
we found that clouds related with seismic activity have three features, first their shape are linear, second they are often overfault systems, third they often stay over fault systems for hours and do not move with winds. Such clouds are found in Japan,
Italy, Bulgaria and New Zealand. With the help of satellite, we have made several successful predictions about these countries
earthquakes. We think that clouds are reliable earthquake precursors, while if you want to make an accurate prediction, satellite
clouds images are not enough, and it is better to combine other geophysical data to get an accurate result.
Keywords: Earthquake Prediction, Clouds, Satellite

1/1MIS02-02

Room:201A

Time:May 26 09:15-09:30

Discriminating satellite IR anomalies associated with the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake inChina
KAI, Qin1∗ ; LIXIN, Wu1
1

China University of Mining and Technology

In the process of exploring pre-earthquake thermal anomalies using satellite data, Blackett et al. (2011) found that the reported
anomalies before the 2001 Mw 7.7 Gujarat earthquake, in India, were related to positive biases caused by data gaps. They
supposed that such effects could also be responsible for other cases. We noted a strip-shaped TIR anomaly on 17 March 2010, 28
days before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake (below figure). Here we again investigate multi-year infrared satellite data in different
bands to discriminate whether the anomaly is associated with the earthquake, or is only normal bias caused by the data gaps.
From the water vapor images, we find lots of clouds that have TIR anomalies. However, on the cloudiness background, there
is an obvious strip-shaped gap matching the tectonic faults almost perfectly. In particular, the animation loops of hourly watervapor images show that the cloud kept moving from west to east, while they never covered the strip-shaped gap. We consider
that the cloud with this special spatial pattern should have implied the abnormal signals associated with the seismogenic process.
Based on current physical models, the satellite IR anomalies both on TIR and water vapor bands can be explained using synthetic
mechanisms.
Keywords: earthquake, satellite, anomaly, thermal, remote sensing

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MIS02-03

Room:201A

Time:May 26 09:30-09:45

Onsite earthquake early warning techniques and its applications at schools in Taiwan
HSU, Ting-yu1∗ ; WU, Shyu-yu1 ; HUANG, Shieh kung1 ; CHIANG, Hung-wei1 ; LIN, Pei-yang1 ;LU, Kung-chun11NCREE

Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) system is not suitable for Taiwan due to most of the destructive seismic hazard
comes from in-land earthquakes, thus makes the lead-time before destructive earthquake wave arrives provided by the regional
EEW system can be null. On the other hand, on-site EEW system can provide more lead-time at the region close to an epicenter
since only the seismic information on the target site is required. Instead of leveraging the information of several stations, theon-site system extracts some P-wave features from the first few seconds of vertical ground acceleration of a single station andperforms the prediction of the coming earthquake intensity at the same station according to these features. Recently, a new
method of estimating seismic intensity using the support vector regression (SVR) has been developed. However, till now, mostpopular on-site algorithms are TauC-Pd-Attenuation (TPA) method and Pd-Threshold method (PdT). The objective of this study isto evaluate the performance of these three methods using earthquake data of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program
and the earthquake data of EEW stations of National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering in Taiwan. The results
show that SVR method can provide more reliable and accurate EEW among these three methods.
Keywords: earthquake early warning, on site, single station

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MIS02-04

Room:201A

Time:May 26 09:45-10:00

Earth observation using the GAIA-1 and GAIA-2 satellite platforms
SRI SUMANTYO, Josaphat tetuko1 ; BAHARUDDIN, Zafri1∗
1

Chiba University

Earth observation from space provides a vantage point unlike any other. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and GPS
satellites orbiting the planet are all emitting microwave signals. These signals can be exploited using the radio occultation (RO)technique which can be used to sense minute changes in the atmosphere. By studying these changes it is hoped that natural
phenomenon such as earthquakes can be predicted before they occur. With that in mind we have a long term plan to launcha satellite with a GNSS-RO sensor called GAIA-1 to seek out the possibility of this potential prediction. Lessons learnt fromGAIA-1 will be applied to it’s next generation GAIA-2, where the primary payload will be a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
system. This presentation will introduce both satellites and their respective payloads, mission plan, and system architecture.

Keywords: radio occultation, GPS, GNSS, synthetic aperture radar, satellite

1/1MIS02-05

Room:201A

Time:May 26 10:00-10:15

Statistical study on short-term earthquake forecast using TEC anomalies over Japan area
HONMA, Ayano1∗ ; HAN, Peng2 ; HATTORI, Katsumi2 ; LIU, Jann-yenq3
1

Faculty of Science, Chiba University, 2 Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, 3 National Central University, Taiwan

To reduce the effect of strong geomagnetic activities such as geomagnetic storms, the TEC data of 2 days after Dst index
exceed -60 nT were excluded in previous statistical studies of earthquake related TEC anomalies. Actually, the influences of amagnetic storm on TEC variations depend on the intensity and onset time of the storm. In this study, to clarify such dependences,
we applied classification analysis method to the storm data (Dst) and discussed the response of TEC variation to each type ofstorm.
We picked out all the 294 geomagnetic storms during 1998-2013, and classified them into 3 types according to its magnitude
and 4 types according to the onset time (local time). We checked the TEC data from 2 days before till 5 days after the onset ofeach geomagnetic storm. A bootstrap method (10000 times extraction) is used to calculate the average variation of the TEC foreach type of storm. The average variation can be regarded as an average response of TEC to the related type of storm. If theaverage value of TEC exceeds the mean±2σ threshold, we consider it being affected by the storm. By this mean, we could findthe accurate period affected by each type of storm.
We employed the results obtained above to remove the TEC data associated with geomagnetic storms. Next we performed
statistical analysis of the TEC anomalies possibly associated with large earthquakes in Japan area during 1998/05-2013/12. There
are statistical significance of TEC anomalies 1-5 days before and 16-20 days after M>=6.0 earthquakes. The significance of preearthquake anomalies is consistent with the results reported by Kon et al., 2011. The significance of 16-20 days after earthquakes
may be due to aftershock effects of the Tohoku earthquake. To remove the influences of any per- and after- shock effects, we
proposed a new method which considers ’isolate EQs’ only. ’Isolate EQs’ are earthquakes which is unique in a 61 days window
centered by the day of the EQ. The result shows there are clear high possibilities of TEC anomalies 1-5 days prior to M>=6earthquakes.
Finally, we used the Molchan’s error diagram to evaluate the efficiency of TEC anomalies for short-term earthquake forecasts.
The results indicates that the predictions based on TEC anomalies are better than random guess (Poisson model), which suggeststhat the TEC anomalies contain certain precursory information of M>=6.0 earthquakes.
Keywords: statistical analysis, geomagnetic storm, TEC anomalies, earthquake, SEA, Molchan’s Error Diagram

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MIS02-06

Room:201A

Time:May 26 10:15-10:45

Seismo-ionospheric precursors of the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake
LIU, Jann-yenq2∗ ; LEE, I. T.3 ; CHEN, C. H.4 ; HATTORI, K.5 ; CHEN, Y. I.6 ; HUANG, C. S.1 ;SU, Y. Z.1
1Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan, 2 National Space Organization, Hsinchu, Taiwan,
Center Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, 4 Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan,
5Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, 6 Institute of Statistics, National Central University, Chung-Li,
Taiwan3

In this paper, the total electron content (TEC) of the global ionosphere map (GIM) is used to observe seismo-ionosphericanomalies associated the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake, while the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General
Circulation Model (TIEGCM) is applied to simulate and understand the observed anomalies. The GIM TEC associated with
M>=6.0 earthquakes in Japan are statistically examined during 1998-2011. It is found that the GIM TEC significantly enhance
day 3 before the earthquakes. On the other hand, the TEC over the epicenter also significantly and continuously enhances on 6-8
March 2011, 4-2 days before the Tohoku earthquake. The agreement between the statistical result and the event anomaly implies
that seismo-ionospheric precursor related to the Tohoku earthquake might be observed. The spatial analysis further is further
conducted to find that the enhancement anomaly specifically and persistently appears in the northern epicenter area. Simulation
results well agree with the observations, which suggest that the electric potential around the epicenter has been distorted andsignificantly affects the TEC during the earthquake preparation period.
Keywords: Seismo-ionospheric precursors, Tohoku Earthqauke

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MIS02-07

Room:201A

Time:May 26 11:00-11:30

Validation of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals and their connection with major seismicity
OUZOUNOV, Dimitar1∗ ; HATTORI, Katsumi2 ; PULINETS, Sergey3 ; MOGI, Toru4
1

CEESMO/Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA, 2 Department of Earth Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, 3 Space
Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 4 Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, JapanWe are presenting a new approach of utilizing multi-parameters space and ground observations to study pre-earthquake processes related to major earthquakes. In this study we are exploring the potential of atmospheric and ionospheric signals to alert
for large earthquakes. To achieve this, we start validating retrospectively and prospectively anomalous ionospheric /atmosphericsignals. Our method for validation is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal
infrared radiation (STIR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), VHF-bands radio waves, radon/ion activities, airtemperature and seismicity patterns) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for this methodology is based on the concept of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011], which
explains the synergy of different physical processes, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies.
Our validation include continuous retrospective analysis performed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan
and Japan for 2003-2011 .The retrospective tests show STIR and GPS/TEC anomalous behavior in advance for most of these
events with false positives less than 25%. The prospective tests for Honshu and Hokkaido (Japan) started in 2014. Our initialtest results suggest systematic appearance of STIR anomalies, one to several days in advance to major events, including thetwo largest earthquakes for that period - M7 of July 12, 2014 and M6.9 of Feb17, 2015 in Eastern Honshu. The proposed ismulti-parameters approach and new observations could be further integrated into and the synergy of these parameters implying
their connection with the earthquake preparation processes.

Keywords: earthquake forecasting, pre-earthquake signals, Thermal amomaly, GPS/TEC, radon, LAIC

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MIS02-08

Room:201A

Time:May 26 11:30-11:45

Statistical Analysis of ULF Seismo-Magnetic Phenomena in Kanto, Japan
HAN, Peng1∗ ; HATTORI, Katsumi1 ; ZHUANG, Jiancang2
1

Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, 2 Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan

In order to clarify and verify the ultra-low frequency (ULF) seismo-magnetic phenomena, we have performed statistical studies
on the geomagnetic data observed at several stations, in Japan, during 2001-2010. They are Kiyosumi (KYS), Uchiura (UCU),Fudago (FDG), Seikoshi (SKS), Mochikoshi (MCK), Kamo (KAM), and Kakioka (KAK). KAK is a standard geomagnetic
station operated by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) and the others are operated by us. We investigated the energy of ULF
geomagnetic signals of the frequency around 0.01Hz using wavelet transform analysis. To minimize the influences of artificial
noises and global geomagnetic perturbations, we used only the geomagnetic data observed at nighttime (LT 2:30am-4:00 am). In
this abstract, we describe the results of KAK as an example. As for KAK data, we utilized observations from a remote station,Kanoya (KNY), as a reference. Statistical results of superposed epoch analysis have indicated that ULF magnetic anomalies aremore likely to appear before sizeable earthquake events rather than after them, especially 6-15 days before the events. Further
statistical investigations show clearly that the ULF geomagnetic anomalies at KAK are more sensitive to larger and closer events.
Finally, we have evaluated the precursory information of ULF geomagnetic signals for local sizeable earthquakes using Molchan
error diagram. The probability gain is around 1.6 against a Poisson model. The above results have indicated that the ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at KAK clearly contain precursory information and have a possibility of improving the forecasting of large
earthquakes. The statistical results for the other stations also show similar tendency. These facts suggest that ULF magneticanomalies have a significant correlation and precursory information on a sizable earthquake.
Keywords: ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena, statistical test, short-term earthquake forecast

1/1MIS02-09

Room:201A

Time:May 26 11:45-12:00

Detectability of seismic network: an approach of the probability-based magnitude of completeness method
HUANG, Qinghua1∗ ; LI, Zhichao2
1

Peking University, 2 China Earthquake Networks Center

The magnitude of completeness is a key quantitative index to assess the detectability of regional seismic network. This paper
deals with the detectability of the Capital-circle Seismic Network in China by adopting the probability-based magnitude of completeness (PMC) method which can reveal the detailed spatio-temporal characteristics of regional seismic network detectability.
The earthquake data (2002-2009) and station information are from China Earthquake Administration (CEA). We estimated thenetwork detectability and discussed the possibility of improving the network detectability according to the spatio-temporal distribution of completeness magnitudes and the simulation results. The results show that the detectability of the Capital-circle
Seismic Network is high in most regions, although the detectability in a few regions needs to be enhanced. Simulation results
suggest that increasing stations may further enhance the detectability of the seismic network. This study may be helpful for theoptimization of the regional seismic network.
This study is supported partially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41025014).
Keywords: Probability-based magnitude of completeness (PMC), seismic network, detectability

1/1MIS02-10

Room:201A

Time:May 26 12:00-12:30

Earthquake Monitoring and case study by using Multi-parameters Remote Sensing information in ChinaXUHUI, Shen1∗ ; WANG, Lanwei1 ; YUAN, Shigeng2 ; ZHANG, Xuemin1
1Workinggroup of Earthquake-related satellite mission, China Earthquake Administration, 2 China DFH Sat. Co.Ltd

In the last ten years, a few national research plans and scientific projects on remote sensing application in Earthquake monitoring research are implemented in China and some progress were achieved on EQ-related ionospheric and RS precursors extracting
and distinguishing by statistical research, case study and real-time monitoring experiments on historical or recent earthquakes.
The LAI coupling models were computed and checked also, which laid the foundation for gradually promoting the practical use.
Focusing to advance earthquake monitoring capability and to search for the way of earthquake prediction, the prototype dataprocessing and application platform of satellite-based EQ monitoring system, which integrate mainly GNSS, electromagnetism,infrared RS and D-InSAR technologies were developed systematically. and integrated earthquake remote sensing application
system has been designed comprehensively.
On the basis of these works, the first space-based platform in earthquake stereoscope observation system in China, which
named as China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) now is on his phase of electrical model and qualifying model. According to the schedule, the 1st CSES will be launched before the end of 2016 and 2nd CSES will come into review soon.

Keywords: Earthquake monitoring, China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite, LAI coupling, remote sensing application

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MIS02-11

Room:201A

Time:May 26 14:15-14:30

Multiple seismo-anomalies associated with three major earthquakes in China, Japan andTaiwan
CHEN, Chieh-hung1∗ ; ZENG, Xiaoping2 ; HATTORI, Katsumi3 ; LIU, Jann-yenq4
1

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, National Chung Cheng University, Chiayi 621, Taiw, 2 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China, 3 Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Inage, Chiba
263-8522, Japan, 4 Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Jhongli 320, Taiwan
Seismo-crustal deformation, groundwater (containing levels, temperature and radon), geomagnetic and ionospheric anomalies
are integrated together to investigate pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena associated with the M6.1 Ludian earthquake, China,
the M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan and the M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Seismo-crustal deformation and groundwater anomalies generally lead the other promising parameters because stress accumulation in crust is one of the major driving
forces of earthquakes. Uplift and depression groundwater levels are exactly related with compression and tension stress loadingin the crust, respectively. Decreases of groundwater temperature and radon concentration are resulted from uplift groundwaterlevels. Meanwhile, groundwater would infuse into fracture zones of faults once cracks are developed before earthquakes thatcan enhance conductivity near hypocenters and/or faults affecting electromagnetic fields and electron total electron contents in
the ionosphere. Those aforementioned relationships can be utilized to eliminate anomalies which are unrelated with earthquakes
to further increase of the accuracy and understand causal mechanisms of pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena in seismogenicprocesses.
Keywords: Groundwater, Electromagnetic field, Total electron content, Crustal deformation, Earthquake forecast

1/1MIS02-12

Room:201A

Time:May 26 14:30-14:45

Space-borne observations of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals associated with major
seismicity in Xinjiang, ChinaOUZOUNOV, Dimitar1∗ ; PULINETS, Sergey2 ; SHEN, Xuhui3 ; SUN, Ke3 ; KAFATOS, Menas1
13

CEESMO/Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA, 2 Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia,
Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China

We are presenting the latest development in multi-sensor observations of short-term phenomena preceding major earthquakes.
The purpose of this study is to verify if satellite thermal infrared radiation (STIR) anomalous can be found retrospectively inassociation with three major earthquakes in XinJiang province China (M6.9 of 02.12.14; M6.2 of 08.12.2012; M7.2 of 03.20.08)
by systematically analyzing multi-sensor satellite and ground temperature/ humidity observations for the period of 2008-2014.
Meteorological satellite data include NOAA polar orbit POES and Chinese geostationary satellite FY2D. In the case of M6.9 of
02.12.14, NOAA STIR data for January ?February shows building an atmospheric anomaly 10-20 days before the main shock.
FY2D STIR data show similar trend by revealing anomalous value with persistency of more then 9 hours on Jan 31, 2014. The
2012 (M 6.2) and 2008 (M7.2) event shows similar STIR anomalies over the major Altyn Tagh fault lines within 10-15 days
before the seismic event. This probably is connected with the geochemistry gas increase, which can provide additional source
for flux emission near major faults in the area. The hourly in-situ atmospheric observation show similarly in the air temperature
increases and drop in the relative humidity, probably as result of additional atmospheric ionization observed before the threeearthquake events. Our initial results suggest that systematic use of multi-parameter observations can be used for additional
physical validation of pre-seismic processes associated with the major earthquake events.
Keywords: short-term earthquake forecasting, pre-earthquake signals, Thermal amomaly, GPS/TEC, radon, LAIC

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MIS02-13

Room:201A

Time:May 26 14:45-15:00

Multi-sensor monitoring network for earthquake precursors and preparation process near
subduction zone at Boso, JapanHATTORI, Katsumi1∗ ; HAN, Peng1 ; MOGI, Toru2 ; GOTO, Tada-nori3 ; TAKANO, Tadashi4 ; IZUTSU, Jun5 ;KAMOGAWA, Masashi6 ; YAMANAKA, Chihiro7 ; TAJUMI, Ichi8 ; YASUKAWA, Hiroshi9 ; ANDO, Yoshiaki10 ;SONODA, Jun11 ; SAKAI, Hideo12
1Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, 2 Hokkaido University, 3 Kyoto University, 4 Nihon University, 5 Chubu University, 6 Tokyo Gakugei Univeristy, 7 Osaka University, 8 Nagoya Institute of Technology, 9 Aichi Prefectural University, 10 The
University of Electro-Communications, 11 Sendai National College of Technology, 12 Toyama University

New observations from ground and space have provided multiple evidences of pre-earthquake signals and the latest studies
show their statistical significance, repeatability, and universality. In this project, to understand the preparation process of large
earthquakes and slow-slip events in subduction zone, especially to clarify the nucleation stage of the earthquake cycle, we plan
to establish a dense observation network in Boso, Japan, where large subduction earthquakes are expected soon.
Since the subsurface fluid flow may play an important role in the preparation process of subduction activities, we intend to employ electromagnetic approaches including oceanic and continental MT survey to monitor the underground resistivity structure
which is sensitive to the dynamics of fluid. Other geophysical monitoring such as ULF geomagnetic and geoelectrical observations, radon measurements, and inland GPS movements, will be incorporated to help to understand the preparation process andevaluate the applicability of various pre-earthquake signals towards short term earthquake forecasting.

Keywords: multi-sensor monitoring network, earthquake precursors, earthquake preparation process, short-term earthquake forecast

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