TechnicalAdv
isor
yCommitteeo
ftheNuclearRis
kResearchCenter
CentralResearchInstituteo
fE
lectricPowerIndustry1‑
6‑
1Otemachi,Chiyoda‑
ku,Tokyo,100‑8126 Japan

November1,2014

Dr.GeorgeA
postolakis
Head,NuclearRiskResearchCenter
CentralResearchInstituteo
fE
lectricPowerIndustr
y1‑
6‑1Otemachi,Chiyoda‑ku
Tokyo,100・8126JapanSUBJECT: RESEARCHONHUMANRELIABILITYANALYSISMETHODS

DearDr.Apostolakis:
Duringthefirstmeetingo
ftheTechnicalAdvisoryCommitteeo
ftheNuclearR
isk
ResearchCenter(NRRC),October27‑31,2014,wemetw
ithrepresentativ
eso
fthe
NRRCstafft
orev
ie
waproposedresearc
hplanforthedevelopmento
fmethodsand
guidanceformodernhumanreliabilityanalysis(HRA).
Duetopersonalschedulingconflicts,onlythreeo
fourmemberswerepresentatthe
meeting on thistopic. This repoは prov
idesthe consensus concl
usions andrecommendationsfrom members AmirA
fzali,NileshC
hokshi, and John Stetkar.
Because a majority quorum of our membership did not pa凶 ci
pateint
hedeliberation
sonthistopi
candconcurw
ithourconclu
sion
sandrecommendations,thi
s repo吋 shou
ld be treate
d as a minorityo
piniont
hat has notbene
fitte
d fromconsiderationbyt
hefullCommittee.

RECOMMENDATIONS
1.TheNRRCstaffshouldreviewtheliteraturetha
thasbeenpublishe
dinsuppo吋 ofongoing development oftheIntegratedDecision‑Tree Human Event Analysis
System(IDHEAS)HRAmethodology. Thestaf
fshoul
dusethatrev
iewtobetterfocusthei
rproposedresearchefforts.

2. TheNRRCstaf
fshouldexplor
epossibilitiesforcollaborativ
eresearchwiththeU.
S. NRC and EPRI tosupportcompletion and pilotingo
fthe IDHEAS
methodology,withtheobjectiv
eofi
mprov
in
ginternationalconsistencyi
nmodern
HRAa
pplications.

BACKGROUND
We understand that human reliabilit
y analyses in Japanese probabilisti
crisk
assessments(PRAs)arecurrentl
yperformeda
ccordingtotheTechniquef
orHuman・1278). Thatmethodology
ErrorRateP
redictio
nmethodology(THERP,NUREG/CRiswidel
yacknowledgedaso
utdatedandinadequatef
ortheassessmento
fhumanperformancei
nsituationsthatrequirehighlyskilledcogn
itiv
efunctions,suchasanoper
atin
gcrew
'sresponset
oacomplexev
olv
ingevents
cenar
io.
TheNRRCstaffhasdevelopeda proposedresearch pla
nfort
hedevelopmentofguidancefo
rmodernHRAmethods. Thefirs
tphaseo
ft
h
edr
af
tp
l
a
ncont
ainsthreert
asks.Thesecondt
aski
ndicatesthatadraftg
uidelinewouldbepreparedby
m司oapproxi
matelytheendo
fMarch2015.

DISCUSSION
W eagreew
iththeNRRCs
taff'
sconclu
siont
hatt
heTHERPmethodologyi
sno
twell
‑
suite
dfo
rmodern HRAa
ppl
ications. However,thestaff'sproposed plan maybe
focusedtoonarrow
l
yona
ntici
patedshort‑ter
mHRAa
pplication
sforspeci
fi
ct
ype
so
f
personnela
ct
ion
sduringt
headvancedstageso
fanev
olv
in
gevents
cenar
io. Forexample, tihighlight
sa v
ar
iet
yo
fseverea
cc
iden
tm
it
igat
iona
ct
ionsthatare notguidedd
ir
ectl
ybyap
l
ant
'
sEmergencyOperatingProceduresands
imulatortraining.
Thereisaneedforimprovedassessmentso
fpersonnelperformancethroughoutt
heentir
escopeofPRAmodels,regardlesso
ft
hes
peci
fi
ctypeofactions(e.
g.
,skill‑,rule‑,orknowledge‑based)ort
heti
med
ur
in
ganevents
cenar
iowhenthosea
ctionsare needed. Modern HRA methods emphasize an integrated scenario‑based
perspectiv
efortheevaluationofpersonnelperformance.
Substant
ia
lr
esea
r
c
hont
h
ep
syc
ho
lo
gica
lfoun
dationsforhumanc
o
gni
tiv
eb
e
hav
ior
hasbeenconducted du
r
in
gt
hel
astt
enyears. Cases
tu
di
e
so
fs
ki
lle
dp
e
r
so
n
ne
lu
r
in
gc
hal
len
gin
gc
on
di
t
ion
sinav
ar
iet
yofi
ndustrieshavevalidatedpeげormanced
an improved understanding ofcontextualfactors and causal mechanisms thatincreasethelikelihoodo
fhumanerrors.TheU.S.NuclearRegu
lator
yCommission
O
f
ficeo
fNuclearRegu
lator
yResearch andt
heElectr
icPowerResearch Institute(EPRI)arecurrentlycollaboratingonthedevelopmento
fahybridHRAmethodology(IntegratedDecision‑
TreeHumanEventA
nalysisSystem, IDHEAS}thatcombines
theb
estp
r
acticesfromavarietyofg
uideline
sandmethods. Thatp
rojectrepresentstheinternationalstate‑of‑the‑artin HRA methods developmentand quantificationtechniques.
istafewo
fthemosti
mportantworkproductsfromthe
TheReferencesforourrepoは lIDHEAS researchwork,which containc
itationstoadditionalsupportin
g research.
TheMay2014AdvisoryCommitteeonReactorSafeguardsl
etterreportprovide
sanoverviewo
fthetechnicaltaskstha
tremaint
ocompletedevelopmento
ftheIDHEAS
methodologybefor
etii
sreadyforpilott
esting. TheNRRCs
taffshoulduset
heir
reviewo
ft
hi
sr
efer
enc
ematerialt
obette
rfocusthei
rproposedr
esear
c
hef
fort
s. Thestaffshoulda
lsoexplor
epossibilitie
sforcollaborativeresearchw
iththeU.
S.NRCtuandEPRIt
osuppo吋 completio
nandp
ilottestingoftheIDHEASmethodologyw
iththeobjectiv
eo
fi
mprov
in
ginternationalconsistencyi
nmodernHRAa
pplications.

比JohnW.Stetkar
Chairman

REFERENCES
1.

Research Plan ofDevelop HRAProcedureGuide， NRRCP
resentationtoTechnicalAdvisoryCommittee,October28,2014.

2.

Swain,A.
O.
, and H.
E. Guttmann， Handbooko
fHuman ReliabilityAnalysis＇ N
UREG/CR‑1278,U.S.
w
ithEmphasisonNuclearPowerP
lantA
pplications，
NuclearRegulatoryCommission,Washington,DC,August1
983.

3.

ElectricPowerResearchInstitute，AnApproacht
otheAnalysiso
fOperator
992.
ActionsinProbabilisticRiskAssessment，EPRITR‑100259,June14.

Bley,D.
,S.Cooper,J.Forester,A.Kolaczkowski,E.Lois,andJ.W
reathall,
UntanglingtheCauseso
fHumanError:PredictingtheLikelihoodo
fHumanErrorinHigh‑RiskIndustries， Prepared forDivisionofRiskAnalysis andA
pplications,O
fficeofNuclearRegulatoryResearch,U.
S.NuclearRegulatory
Commission,Washington,DC,J
uly2005.

5.

uildinga PsychologicalFoundation
U.
S. NuclearRegulatoryCommission，BinalDraft,December6,2013
forHumanReliabilityAnalysis，NUREG‑2114,F(ML14014A292).

6.

U.
S.NuclearRegulatoryCommissionandE
lectricPowerResearchInstitute,
An IntegratedDecision‑Tree Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS)
inalDraft, September30,
Method for NPP Internal At‑PowerOperation， F
2013(ML133548698).

7.

U.
S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Advisory Committee on ReactoreliabilityA
nalysisModels， May14,2014
SafeguardsLetterReport，HumanR(ML14134A328).