Special Seminar
Title: Climate change, Vulnerability and its impacts
to the coastal environment•https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC_ULmDBZE

Speaker: Dr. Ranjana. Udaya. Kumara. Piyadasa.

Professor, Head of Department of Environment
Technology, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka
Date and Time: September 30, 2022, at 2:00 pm
Location: Theatre Lecture , 1F of Research & Project 1

Organized by
Department of Environmental Science & Technology, Saitama University
The Strategic Research Area for Sustainable Development in East Asia (SRASDEA)
Supported by
JSPS International Fellowships for Research in Japan / BRIDGE Fellowship•Climate change, Vulnerability and its
impacts to the coastal environment

Professor Ranjana .U. K. Piyadasa(MSc- Engineering Geology, PhD-Hydrogeology- Moscow)

Head- Department of Environmental Technology
University of Colombo
ranjana@et.cmb.ac.lk•https://www.ft.lk/columns/Global-warming-and-climate-change/4-731011

ContentIsntroduction

Global warming causing new evolutionary patterns
EXAGGERATED SCIENCE

What is climate change?
The Triggering Factors
Global Climate Change: Causes, impacts,

How Global Warming Research is Creating a Climate of Fear

Global warming could burn insurers
Activists call on industry to act•Seattle mayors' meeting a cozyclimate for businessIn a Shift, White House Cites Global Warming as a Problem

Research Links Global Warming to Wildfires

Coastal valnerability
Sea level rise
Case study on cosatal environment
Conclusions

Rise in wild fires a resultof climate change•Seattle reports milestone in
cutting emissions

Is Global Warming Fueling
Katrina?
Jellyfish creature the answer to global
www.Scienceblog.com
warming?

How one number touched off big climate-change fight at UW• Grinnell glacierpark- USA• 1914

 what evidence can you find of theoccurrence of climatechange?????

• 2000• Pasterze
glacier- Austria• 1875

•

2004

•2004

• Portage glacierAlaska, USA• 1914
•https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki

•POSITIVE PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING•What is climatechange?

•It’s something to dowith the weather.
•Let’s see what itmeans to different
parts of the world.

•Different countries different stories
There were heavy rains
last winter and town
was flooded•Summer temperature very high.

•United Kingdom

The monsoon rains
are much worse.
Then in the•Bangladesh summer there arelong droughts
when everything is•Zimbabwedry.

•Global warming causes
the polar ice to melt. The •USA
extra water is making thesea levels rise.

 The snow and ice in themountains are melting.
Lakes are getting full andthere could be floods orlandslides.

•What People seeRussia•Peru
Droughts make it difficultfor people, crops andanimals to survive. Therains are not regular.

•Australia
There were lotof flooding & wild
fire

•So the world’s weather is changing.
•There are floods in some places and droughts in others.
•People all over the world will be affected.

•What is Hidden•https://www.mcatraininginternational.com/the-human-iceberg/•Impacts of climate change bigger than what
we can see

Since 1990, it is estimated that 420 million hectaresof forest have been lost•In 1970 the most of
the climacticscientists predictions
were totally wrong.

https://www.fao.org/state-of-forests/en/•Some reports statewith the sea level
rise and some of theIslands are lost andsubmerge.
•https://ceoworld.biz/2021/05/31/top-10-countries-with-major-forest-losses-2021/•https://pixta.jp/illustration/76968886

But all the projections are totally not correct•All the countries belongs to TROPICAL countriesRain forests•Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)•The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is theUnited Nations body for assessing the science related to climatechange overview.

•4 scenarios•population•economic growth• energy consumptionand sources•Climate change•https://skepticalscience.com/ipcc-global-warming-projections.htm

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) describe 4different scenarios based on different assumptions about
population, economic growth, energy consumption andsources and land use over this century on Climate change.

• relation to Environment and Development, Water and Biodiversity

Our global climate is changing dramatically.

CausesGlobalClimate
ChangeImpacts

The change is due to theanthropogenic emission ofCarbon dioxide (CO2)

Mitigation

Adaptation

Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (NOx)= All measures suitable toreduce, delay or avoid impacts= All measures suitable tocounteract expected damage

Reducing greenhouse gasemissions

Building dams along the coast,changing agric. crops, etc,

Reducing other stress factors,
e.g. water supply shortageSelling ‚Carbon
Certificates‘ within KyotoProtocol

 What are the indicators?

Ozone (O3) & watervapor (H2o)•Without greenhouse gases,
the average temperatureof Earth's surface would be
about −18 °C

Due to climate change humankind faces some environmental andsocial challenges of an unprecedented scale.

Its directly influence to Development of theCountry Concentration indicators

 Is the change slow or rapid?

indicators•Natural – Changers of the earth orbit,
Solar activity,
Volcanic aerosol•Anthropogenic (Man made) Weather indicators
 Biological and physical indicators Atmospheric CO2 concentration› Year 1000 to 1750 period 280ppm› year 1970 its 325.68 ppm

Global mean surface temperature has increased by0.6 ± 0.2 ˚C over the Current and last centurise› year 2005 its 379 ppm•Today 414.72 ppm
Atmospheric CH4 changes› from 700 ppb for the period 1000 –•Global averagetemperaturedatasets from NASA,•NOAA, Berkeley Earth,and meteorologicaloffices of theU.K. and Japan

1750 but 1774 ppb in 2005

•Today 1892.2 ppb•https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature•2020•https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2019-10-11

Once the fourth largest lake in theworld – Areal Sea in Central Asia
•Lake shrinking due to climatechange and human activity

 In the 21st century all years 2000-2005 were

exceptionally warm. The year 2016 was thewarmest year of all times after that 2021

•https://www.theperspective.se/2022/04/22/article/blue-gold-turned-into-sand-will-the-watersreturn-to-the-aral-sea/ 1. Global mean sea level has increased at

an average annual rate of 1 – 2 mm during
20th century
 Arctic sea-ice thickness has decreased by
40% in recent decades in late summer toearly autumn and decreased in extent by
10-15%

Triggering factors regarding
future environmet

Triggering factors regarding
future Environmennt on
Climate change

Factor 1: Global Greenhouse
Gas Emissions

2. Population
Increase

3. Economic
growth

Biodiversity
Environment

1. Global
ClimateChange

4.
Urbanisation

Source: Garnaut 2008

The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: total emissions andcumulative share (%) of global emissions; Year 2004

World Top
EmittersASIA

46%

Volcaniceruptions
Earthquakes & 1%tsunamis
8%•

Number of Natural Disasters by Origin•Regional Distribution (1995 – 2004)
Source: http://www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics

Floods30%

Avalanches
1%Wind storm
21%

Wave surge
0%Landslides
4%•https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions

Epidemic
15%
Insect Infestation
1%

Drought and rel.
19%

•70%

•World Distribution of Disasters triggered by
Natural Hazards(1995-2004)•Source: http://www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics

The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters:
Develop and Industrial countries total emissions

80%

Rest of the world: Total emission20%

What we can understand ????

•80% from Energy, Industry, Agriculture•https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/peak-co2-heat-trapping-emissions

Factor 2: Population Development•World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

1950•82022 •More than 60

A doubling the water demand until 2050 is prognosed by World Bank.

•8 Million
• km3

•1950

•2021

•3 Billion People•8 Million
• km3

•1950

•3 Billion People•?

•8 Million• km3•7.9 Billion People

?
•2021

•7.9 Billion People•https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wake-looming-water-crisis-report-warns

•(shortage)

Factor 3: Economic
Growthhas shown a fast economic growth in the past:►GDP increased by annually (Gross Domestic Product)► Industrial output by annually increased

But about 1/3 of population lives below the poverty line

Economic growth is needed, but it is still
linked with a high degree of► water use► water pollution and► the emission of greenhouse gases.
Economic Growth

Economic Growth
The problems of water crisis will
also be driven by rapid economic
development..

As nations such as China and othercountries grow economically more
prosperous, with that , their citizens
are switching to more protein-richWestern diets.

It takes some 15,500 litres of water to produce akilogram of industrial beef, ten times as much as isneeded to produce 1 kilogram of wheat..

•To produce

Agricultural Water Demand(Rain or Irrigation Water)

1 ton of grain = = 1,000 m3 water are needed.
1 ton of cotton = 15,000 m3 water

1 ton of paper = 500 m3 water

Factor 4: Urbanization•Population
changers inUrban areasTheurbanisation ishigh in theworld: about
1/3 of thepopulation
lives in cities.

The water and energy demand per capita as well as
the general resource use in cities is higher thanrural areas.

1st Level

BIODIVERSITY

Higher demandf. land & waterDeforestation

Higher demandfor energy

Mangrove belt
destruction

EconomicgrowthHigherresource use

Urbanisation
Groundwater More soil, water& air pollution
exploitation● Economic growth● Depletion of GW/SW● Governance structures Impacts● Pollution● Income distribution
Feedbacks ● Biodiversity decrease● Public health● Land surface sealing (urban)● Science and technology● Loss of wetlands● Land and energy use● Sea water intrusion● Sea level rice

Triggering Factors● Population growth● Urbanization● Global Climatic Change● Economic development

Marine System● Pollution bySeawater intrusion

CLIMATECHANGE

Drainage ofwetlands

Land BasedNatural System

Socio-Economic
SystemFeedbacks

ENVIRONMENTWATER

Population
increase

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Surface water Higher demand
decliningfor foodInteractions

Pollution

2nd Level•Resources usages are very high and its
directly impacted to the environment

Impacts

3rd Level•X 3-Domestic sector-Industrial sector-Agricultural sector● Impact on fish population● Coral reef deterioration● Plankton destruct.

Impacts of Climate Change
AtmosphericWarming

Speeding up
water cycle

Ocean, lake & riverwater heated

Increasing
precipitation

Volume expanded

Generating ice &glacier melting

Sea level rise

Altering water
availability &seasonality

Influencing
coastal areas &small islands

Human livelihoods

ENVIRONMENT

Human livelihoods•95% 0f Biodiversity Hotpots are marine Locations•With Sea Level rise all marine hotpots may destroy and disappear52•The low-lying countries and Islands are mostvulnerable to the effects of climate change suchas rising sea levels and coral reef deterioration.

•“We are not prepared
to die. We are not going
to become the first
victims of the climatecrisis”•“But we are the first
victims if sea level rise”•Meeting underwater with President Mohamed NasheedPresident Maldives,
Climate conference 2015

•StormsandFlooding•Saltwater
Intrusion Coastal erosion is already a widespread•Tides•Changing
Coastlines

problem vulnerable to long term sea-level rise

•Subsidence any increase in the frequency of stormsurges.

•Case study on climate change and sea level▪Sri Lanka Island in the Indianrise Ocean, theadverse impacts of the Climate change willhead on to Sri Lanka with more damages onthe coastal region of the country.

2006 May•Monsoon
May rainactivation and humanactivities as well asclimate change directly
or indirectly affected tocoastal erosion

2007•27 June 2007

•Physical and Environmental Setting of the area
•Geological Map
Groundwaterlens ofKalpitiya
peninsula•Source: Groundwater resource of Sri Lanka, 2005

• Groundwater cross section of Kalpitiya peninsula•Source: Coastal Atlas, IUCN, 2014; Modified byAuthor Using Geographical Information System, 2015

•Source: Groundwater conditions in the coastal regions of the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka,
http://tsunami.obeysekera.net/Presentations/Lasantha.pdf, 2015

▪Most of the effects of Sea level rise will be on
the livelihood options of coastal population inSri Lanka.
▪On this purpose, the effects of Sea Level risein the perspectives of Island vulnerability
needs to be assessed properly considering
the aspects related to the phenomena withreference to the Sri Lankan coastal areas.

Selection•Sample Location•Gridofsamplinglocations•Study Ara

•Methodology of Data Collection and Analysis
contd..

Methodology of Data Collection and Analysis contd..
•For Electrical Conductivity•Navigatethe locations•Magellan exploits
620

Water quality
monitoring•Multi parameter

Measurementsof the PhysicalParameters ofthe Wells▪Total Depth ofwell▪Ground waterlevel▪Apron height▪Diameter•Used Data
Layers•Well Locationand monthly
collected data

•For pH•No of Months =24•Used Tool =Spatial Analysis in
ArcGIS 10.1

•Navigate tolocation•ANALYSIS & DISSCUSSION•Mainly focuses on the analysis results and interpretationsof the developed I under seven main segments,
1) Temporal and Spatial changes of Shoreline in Kalpitiyapeninsula
2) Socio- economic vulnerability Index – analysis andinterpretations3) Bio-physical Vulnerability Index – Analysis andInterpretations
4) Integrated Bio-physical Vulnerability Index

According to the shoreline change investigations it
was evident that both the highly eroding areasand sand depositing areas are forming in theKalpitiya coasts over the past years.
▪ Primary and secondary data sources used foridentification of shoreline changes.
▪

•Shore line changed moved to the landwards•29m within a year

Both positive and negativechanges are evident andnegatives shows considerable
impacts on the coastal areas.
Northern areas of the pennisula
are critically damages due to thenegative effects of erosion asBox ‘A’Box ‘B’ , sand deposits areas canbe identified in Kandakuliya
beach area.

•: Sand Accumulation of Kandakuliya••

2001/03/19 - Kudawa sand bar

2014/02/21 - Kudawa sand bar

Kalpitiya
Lagoon•Sand bar

Sand bar
Shoreline

Shoreline

Kalpitiya
Lagoon•Sand Accumulation of Kandakuliya

abcde

•

aPeriod

No ofYear

1956 - 1988
1988 - 2005
2005 - 20102010 - 20132013 - 2014

32
17
53
1

Max
distance(m)
364.2
206.8
205.34
257.5
15.41

•

Average
Rate (m/yr)
11.3
12.16
41.06
85.16
15.41

•Evidences for Coastal Erosion and shore line
changers
•

a•b

•

c

•d

•e

•
•
•
•
•

a : 2014.05.23
b : 2014.08.08
c : 2014.11.08
d : 2015.06.08
e : 2015.11.25b Water quality variation and Sea water intrusion•c•d•Vulnerability by Water Quality Index
Equation 1

Wi= wi /Σn wi•Vulnerability by Water Quality Index

Equation 4
SIi= Wi Qi‘Wi’ is the relative weight and ‘wi’ is weight of Equation 5
WQI=Σn SIi
each parameter, ‘n’ is number ofparameters and ‘ i ’ is the ‘i th’ sample•WQI values
location.
Equation2
Qi= (Ci /Si) x 100•1. <50 =Excellent
Equation 3•2. 50 - 100 = Good
Qi= (Ci-Vi /Si-Vi) x 100•3. 100 - 200 = Poor
Qi = quality rating, Ci = value of the water•4. 200 - 300= Veryquality parameter, Si = value of the water
poor
quality parameter from recommended WHO,Vi = the ideal value which is considered as 7.0 •5. >300 = Unsuitable

1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

ElectricalConductivity (μs/cm)
Total Dissolved Solids(mg/L)
Chloride( mg/L)
PH
Total alkalinity (TA)Total hardness (TH)Calcium•8. Magnesium•9. Sulphate•10. Fluoride•11. Turbidity in NTU•12. Total Iron in mg/L (asFe)•13. Nitrate in mg/L (as N)

for pH and 14.6 for DO•Vulnerability by Water Quality Index•Ground water Vulnerability Assessment•EC Spatial distribution•Water quality index revealed that urbanized andagricultural land areas unsuitable for drinking
purpose in both dry and wet seasons•pH spatial distribution•Land use pattern changes of in Kalpitiya peninsula•Ground water Vulnerability Assessment•Variation of Nitrate

N50(mg/L)

1st Set (N)

4030
20

100

▪When compared with land use and quality ofground water in study area shows positive
relationship

Adaptation to climate change is necessary toaddress impacts resulting from the warming
which is already unavoidable due to pastemissions•There are no doubts that global climate change will► change the hydrologic cycle, intensify rainfall andrunoff► increase air, soil and water temperatures► result in more extreme weather events► aggrevate the already existing water & land
related problems.

Beyond adaptation
However:• Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected
impacts of climate change• The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as
global temperatures increase•► Global warming will affect all parts of the world
and all sectors of the economy. It is causing sea
levels rise, inundating wetlands and productive
coastal zones.
•79Making development more sustainable can enhanceboth mitigate and adaptive capacity, and reduce
emissions and vulnerability to climate change Thank you very much for your Attention.

 Ranjana U K PiyadasaProfessor in Hydrogeology
University of Colombo, Sri Lanka

The battles of yesterday were fight over the land….
Those of the present center on oil.
But those of the future — a future
made hotter and drier by climate change in muchof the world —So…………..
New war seem likely to focus on water….
In Spain, Water Is a New Battleground, NY Times, June 3, 2008